# Some nice highs today!



## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

Nice to see VEA hitting a multi year (post 2008 crash) high today. VTI also hit a new yearly high, XIU hit a 2 year high. Even my dog of summer RioCan had a great day up over 2%. :encouragement:


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Royal Bank and National Bank hitting 52 week and all time highs. It's been quite a summer.. definitely not a "sell in May and go away" period. Of course, you wonder if that means this Nov-Jan won't be as great as it normally is.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

My financial net worth increased (well, part of that was bouncing back) by about 10% over the past couple weeks! This year is shaping up to be quite good overall.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Let's party like it's 1999! :very_drunk:

<ducking>


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I'm with ya doctrine, wondering what's ahead. 

BTW - how are those 2013 predictions coming @kcowan?


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Goldstone: I was expecting the debt ceiling this time 'round to trigger a larger leg down than we've seen. Maybe we'll see it in Feb. This bull market feels like it's getting long in the tooth, but it's hard to tell.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

I too expected a bigger correction. BTFD seems to be the prevailing attitude at the moment. Buy The F***ing Dip. Any dip gets bought aggressively.

IMO, two things can derail this market. Poor earnings or taper. Taper is not likely to happen for a few months, at the very least. Fed will want to evaluate the aftermath of the government shutdown. That leaves poor earnings as the most likely immediate trigger.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Does anything thing the us market is getting a little bit too expensive? I would love to add but just don't see a lot of value here.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Same Jungle. Not many deals. EMA is still down a bit and they just raised their dividend (again). Looking at COS and CPG as well. D.UN has my eye as well, yield over 7% and near-52 week low.

Not sure what to do.


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## KrissyFair (Jul 8, 2013)

andrewf said:


> Goldstone: I was expecting the debt ceiling this time 'round to trigger a larger leg down than we've seen. Maybe we'll see it in Feb. This bull market feels like it's getting long in the tooth, but it's hard to tell.


I've been thinking the exact same thing. The way everything advanced in the midst of the shutdown/debt ceiling stuff makes me wonder if we've got 'doom fatigue'. In the mean time, my TFSAs are liking this run... but my SPY call spreads are not


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## Dibs (May 26, 2011)

Stop! Stop! You guys are all going to jinx it! :hopelessness:


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

OK Dibs! How's this....2014 will see markets realize double-digit gains!


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

Damn I think RioCan must have been upset I was slamming Reits a few days ago and now its on a tear to prove me wrong.

I am so happy to be wrong... :biggrin:


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

hopefully this will continue with Santa rally into the new years :>


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I suspect what it was is that the Republicans have become the boys who cried wolf. It seems like everyone knew this was just kabuki and counted on them folding just in time. They were trying their best crazy-eyes impression (they do seem to have some genuine nut bars that they trot out in the media) but at the end of the day, the bulk of the GOP caucus is not as nutty as Bachmann and Cruz. They're just putting on a good show for their primary voters.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Me yesterday:



> Let's party like it's 1999! :very_drunk:


The Reformed Broker today:



> *Okay, now it’s ’99*


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

GOOG shareholders are celebrating the $1,000+ share price today.


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## KrissyFair (Jul 8, 2013)

Agreed on the crying wolf.  But a 2+ week shutdown is going to have some ramifications eventually right? Given how many people we know live paycheque to paycheque, I would think it'll have to hurt Xmas sales at least.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

wow what a day... i'd love tsx to get back to 14000 level


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

i'm surprised everyone is so optmistic. Maybe i'm not cuz i'm the guy that sold and went away in MAY.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

My best day of gains ever.... paper gains that is.


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## SpendLessEarnMore (Aug 7, 2013)

All my stock watchlist is green and at highs. Trying to find some stocks near low is difficult now lol.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i just love the stock market .... it is so much fun

as soon as i can catch him i'm going to sell the family dog and buy more stock market because it ... is ... a ... blast

you cannot lose by buying the stock market

forget those stinky bonds !

i want more stock market


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

free money 
what's not to like 

you're absolutely right fatcat
we should all buy more stock market, which would result in even more stock market!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

fatcat said:


> i just love the stock market .... it is so much fun


I think Belguy would agree with you; I hope he came out of hiding by now. 










Enjoy the w/end everyone!


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

Damn solid week...but just delaying the inevitable IMO. Not excited for what Jan/Feb is going to bring. I don't try to time the market, but even to me it seems wise to sell this December and buy back in after the craziness. Thoughts?


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## Calgary_Girl (Apr 20, 2011)

Between yesterday and today, a nice 5 digit gain in our trading account. :biggrin:


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

favelle75 said:


> Thoughts?


Sticking strictly to an allocation could be seen as an effective form of market timing, for example this week I pulled out $2K just in rebalancing to my chosen equity & cash allocations.
Those gains are locked in and if it goes up more I'll pull a little more out & if equity corrects I'll be buying again.

I don't think it's wise to sell everything and wait for a correction, or by the same token, to go 100% equity (both of which I have done in the past, but it's risky and I did ok just through lucky timing and patience, could have easily gone the other way).


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

One doesn't like to make over-optimistic statements for fear of jinxing things but I've been amazed at the resilience of the market in light of the Washington shenanigans during a month that is often one of the most vulnerable to historic crashes. I would tend to think, baring further tremendous stupidity from Washington, we could see some very strong returns coming our way. However, I for one will continue keeping my portfolio balance in check.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Spidey said:


> One doesn't like to make over-optimistic statements for fear of jinxing things but I've been amazed at the resilience of the market in light of the Washington shenanigans during a month that is often one of the most vulnerable to historic crashes. I would tend to think, baring further tremendous stupidity from Washington, we could see some very strong returns coming our way. However, I for one will continue keeping my portfolio balance in check.


I was expecting the market to drop with the dysfunction in the US Senate / Debt ceiling debate etc etc. But, then, I hear myself sounding like someone trying the time the markets! The debt ceiling crisis however has just been moved to February 2014 from what I have been reading. I'm not convinced that anything is "better now" in the US - rather, I'll bide my time, ...and wait. One only has to look at the S&P 500 (22% gain!) in 1yr to stop themselves from hitting the "BUY" button.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I would say there are still plenty of bargains and plenty of 'fairly' valued stocks out there. Even in the US market. Look at the companies that are not hitting highs. Wal-Mart has been standing still for nearly 15 months. Coca Cola is well off it's high, as is McDonalds. Sure, these aren't the fantastic and amazing Google and Facebook, but it seems like people are already forgetting the classics. The Canadian market still has plenty of companies well off their highs, especially if you go back to Feb 2011 when the TSX was 14,500. 

Lots of opportunity; of course, it's also now about 5 years since the last serious economic rumblings. 2-3 more years before trouble again? Who knows...


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Makes you feel good to look at your holdings after this week, however the more it rises, the more I want to hold some $ for a better buying opportunity.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I should be at around 100k cash by the end of the month... this is actually quite a bit lower than my usual cash stash over the past several years. I am prepared for any buying opportunities that are no brainers - I always reference BCE's drop after the rumoured Verizon entry to Canada as an example. More opportunities like this would be appreciated.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

Jon_Snow said:


> I should be at around 100k cash by the end of the month... this is actually quite a bit lower than my usual cash stash over the past several years. I am prepared for any buying opportunities that are no brainers - I always reference BCE's drop after the rumoured Verizon entry to Canada as an example. More opportunities like this would be appreciated.


Don't you think when the poop hits the fan in Jan/Feb there will be the mother of all buying opportunities?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

dubmac said:


> I was expecting the market to drop with the dysfunction in the US Senate / Debt ceiling debate etc etc. .


Me too  Was thinking to add MCD, SO and CVX if market drops significantly until Wed...but it didn't happen....


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

favelle75 said:


> Don't you think when the poop hits the fan in Jan/Feb there will be the mother of all buying opportunities?


Maybe...
But the poop was "supposed to" hit fan last week!
As long as the fed keeps buying bonds and buoying up the economy on bad news - then there won't be a big drop...until they can's afford to buoy up the economy with increased buying by going into debt! The ultimate dilemma.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

dubmac said:


> Maybe...
> But the poop was "supposed to" hit fan last week!
> As long as the fed keeps buying bonds and buoying up the economy on bad news - then there won't be a big drop...until they can's afford to buoy up the economy with increased buying by going into debt! The ultimate dilemma.
> View attachment 319


But then when that scenario happens....imagine the lows!


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Largely in part to this thread I did a lot of thinking over the weekend.
Thankfully the markets were fairly flat today.
Gave me a chance to change cash allocation from 12% to 19% today reducing equity exposure a little across the board by selling some e-series.

Starting to get a little antsy, feels good to have a little more dry powder.
.. now watch this be the beginning of another extended bull market lol


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I'm torn on this... On the one hand thinking about the dividends I'm missing out on having so much in cash... yet there is a comfort factor in having cash that I've always appreciated. Probably going to buy a few more things tomorrow - will formulate a plan tonight.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Jon_Snow said:


> I'm torn on this... On the one hand thinking about the dividends I'm missing out on having so much in cash....


Don't have so much Cash as you, but have the same thought  For now just keeping cash in ATL5000 and TDB9180.... also still didn't contribute into RRSPs this year....


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

I'm 15% cash and a good chunk of it needs to go into VTI. I should have bought more at $80.50 back in June!!!


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

The market seems a bit frothy to me atm, I have no idea where it's going, but I'm quite content to going to at least 43% cash if it does go up a lot more, on the other hand, I'm also ready for a huge plunge in prices and buying opportunities.
I'd suggest caution right now, but I'm by no means an expert and don't have a crystal ball.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

wow, all time highs on 75% of my accounts. I got a feeling to sell everything to lock it all in.
But if i want to sell, it usually means i should hold.


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## swoop_ds (Mar 2, 2010)

I'm in the same boat as daddybigbucks . . . it seems like selling wouldn't be a bad idea but I bought what I have by not doing any timing. I think I'll just leave everything alone and keep some money for the inevitable(I think) downturn.
-Dave


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

daddybigbucks said:


> wow, all time highs on 75% of my accounts. I got a feeling to sell everything to lock it all in.
> But if i want to sell, it usually means i should hold.


Selling would be the easy part. The hard part would be figuring out when to get back in! I don't think it hurts to have a little extra cash / take some profits, but to liquidate ones entire portfolio would be a little drastic at this point...


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

We've made more money in the stock market YTD than I take home from work in a year.. lol


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Isn't the norm to wait for Belguy to post his ytd gains before selling :encouragement:


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## Dibs (May 26, 2011)

Yes but lets hope Belguy doesn't post his gains so that things keep on going up. Right?? :chuncky:

On a more serious note the euphoric comments are becoming more and more common in the media and discussion forums.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Yeah my kids RESP is up 14% since June. I really wanted to cash out prior to the debt ceiling thing but I convinced myself that I really didn't know what the market was going to do and my gut is an idiot. 14% whoop!


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Here's a link I find appropriate for today:

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/10/24/silly-little-bitches/

But if we all think the market is due to correct here does that imply we are obviously wrong?


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Eder said:


> Here's a link I find appropriate for today:
> 
> http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/10/24/silly-little-bitches/
> 
> But if we all think the market is due to correct here does that imply we are obviously wrong?


It doesn't matter if we are wrong because we aren't going to sell out. A good chunk of the people on the forum only started buying in this year. That is NOT contrarian. The rally over the last three years was epic! I would be willing to bet the rally will keep going for another few years, but still, I can't find many good values so I haven't been buying anything lately. Cash is starting to accumulate so a correction would be welcome, but I'm not going to sell out of my holdings just in case. That is one of the most risky moves in my opinion. 

Have a look at this example:
Say you have $100 invested. You sell out completely expecting a correction and then market continues to rise 30% while you are on the sidelines. If you finally get your 30% correction, you will be up $8, or not down 8% from your starting value. 

But bull market rallies average around 30% gain while corrections average about 13% (Since the end of World War II (1945), there have been 27 corrections of 10% or more).
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/08/20/a-field-guide-to-stock-market-corrections/

What do you think the chances are that you can get out before a correction and make more money long term than if you just rode out the correction, and buy when the current price is lower than it was, or just buy in regularly if you have a long horizon?


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

The s&p500 is up over 31% in cad dollars ytd.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Jungle said:


> We've made more money in the stock market YTD than I take home from work in a year.. lol


Me too  but not exited too much about it, as om Dec 31 this `paper`gain can convert to 1 month salary  
I like more the fact that my dividends cover about 20% of my annual salary that non-taxable or tax sheltered (even though there is a big `campaign` here against dividend investing) and witk HISAand GIC interest , income more than 30% of my annual salary


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## rivet (Nov 30, 2012)

I missed most of the gain this year since I didn't invest much in US market because of the tax concern and exchange issue. Now I am sitting with lots of cash and I don't know what to do now, I can come into the market now but it seems to be very risky especially I need the money for a house purchase in a year and half. But if I don't, it is painful to see the market just go higher and higher.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

rivet said:


> I need the money for a house purchase in a year and half


Forget about the stock market. Your time frame is too short. Keep the downpayment in HISA or short term GICs.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

jcgd said:


> It doesn't matter if we are wrong because we aren't going to sell out. A good chunk of the people on the forum only started buying in this year. That is NOT contrarian. The rally over the last three years was epic! I would be willing to bet the rally will keep going for another few years, but still, I can't find many good values so I haven't been buying anything lately. Cash is starting to accumulate so a correction would be welcome, but I'm not going to sell out of my holdings just in case. That is one of the most risky moves in my opinion.
> 
> Have a look at this example:
> Say you have $100 invested. You sell out completely expecting a correction and then market continues to rise 30% while you are on the sidelines. If you finally get your 30% correction, you will be up $8, or not down 8% from your starting value.
> ...


Thanks for the info jcgd. I too was thinking of completely selling my holdings to "lock in some gains". I didn't give much thought as to how long or severe this bull market could go nor how much smaller the correction could be. Good point.

Only thing that scares me is the US feds doing something to really mess stuff up. Make 2008 seem like a walk in the park.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

gibor said:


> Me too  but not exited too much about it, as om Dec 31 this `paper`gain can convert to 1 month salary
> I like more the fact that my dividends cover about 20% of my annual salary that non-taxable or tax sheltered (even though there is a big `campaign` here against dividend investing) and witk HISAand GIC interest , income more than 30% of my annual salary


Question is, have your us stocks match the s&p 500. Mine are not, but I switched out in may. Makes me think of using s&P500 etf to ensure againts underperformance. Of course 6 months is too short to timeline but don't want to massively underperform if we are going into a 90's style bull market where us markets triple.

Our pensions are overweight s&p 500 at least.


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

My portfolio definitely didn't catch the 30% gain YTD. I still consider myself quite new to individual stock investing (been doing it for just over a year now) and the losses and gains have taught me very valuable lessons. I'm also still building the core of my portfolio, so a lot of my money is going into the stable, boring, hold-forever type stocks. I'm still in the black but I feel my improvements have increased exponentially so maybe next year I'll start catching up! :biggrin:


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I did not mean to imply I was selling out. I have stayed in the market thru the last 2 crashes and was smart (lucky?) enough to load up in 2009. fwiw I think we are still in the excitement stage and have another 2000 points to go on the TSX before the euphoria stage ...(average PE of about 15-16 would do it). I don't care to comment on the S&P since it's rally I don't understand and I no longer hold any US equity.


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