# US Government Shutdown !?



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i need some us dollars, i wonder what it might do on monday ?

a shutdown now seems certain: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/us/politics/budget-talks-government-shutdown.html?hp


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Not sure what it will do to the US dollar. Probably be more of a problem for the stock market which is ripe for a good correction. But then again if you are looking at Monday it would probably drop at first giving you a good buying window.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

There are several ways this could go and a government shutdown isn't necessary
http://www.greatponzi.com/articles/20130925-default-close.html


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Also I'll bet that if they actually reach the technical default situation, the US dollar will rise and short-term bonds and t-bills will RALLY (yields drop) as a risk aversion move.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

US Government shutdown, if resolved quickly (1-2 weeks), is not a huge deal.

The upcoming debt ceiling battle is a bigger risk by far. If they fail to raise the borrowing limit by the end of October, watch out. The last time they came close to a default (July 2011), S&P downgraded their debt. World markets dropped 20%. Imagine what happens if they dare to actually cross the line.

I'm surprised that markets have been calm so far.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

How they handle Monday will also speak volumes about the government's ability to handle the approaching mid October crisis. See link I posted


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

if the republicans are "defeated" (i.e obama doesn't cave) i think it will stoke their ardor for the debt ceiling
they are itching for some kind of victory
maybe obama will throw them a bone (eliminate the tax on medical devices)
but this is looking precarious atm


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Obama could just instruct the Treasury to pay the bills.

He can claim it is within the scope of the national security interests of the US to do so.

Nancy Pelosi has claimed that the President can.............under the 14th Amendment of the Constitution.

*Section 4.* _*The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.* But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void._


The Republicans would hoot and howl..........but what could they do about it?

It could end up in the Supreme Court, and they will decide if the President can be held to a previous letter of agreement...........if it threatens the security of the US.

The Republicans may not like their chances of success with the court.

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/04/29/The-Debt-Limit-Option-President-Obama-Can-Use


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

they always do this, they will talk talk right into dead line, then make a deal...


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

Maybe look at what has happened in the past when the US government has been shut down by this sort of thing? Is there any consistent pattern?


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Many of you follow the political debate with more insight than I do ...or can.
I have a lil bit of $ set aside to buy VUS on a correction.
I will be watching over the next few weeks - but does anyone know when this debt ceiling debate will really get serious?
That will hopefully coincide with a drop in VUS
Some say mid-Oct, some say November.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

My guess is there won't be a shutdown, way too many negative factors for the US economy.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i lived in the usa for 5 decades and followed politics pretty closely
i tend to think they will veer away from the cliff at the last minute

but this time something feels different
there is an element in the gop that feels it really is losing it's vision of what america is and they are desperate to see something break their way
it will be a cliffhanger

i suspect it might come down to boehner breaking his word with the house and working with the democrats to pass something
he will throw himself on his sword

the question is: what will happen in the meantime ?


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## Andrew (May 22, 2009)

Buy when the market dips on fear of impending doom, and then wait for it to rebound when they close a deal at the 11th hour. Haven't we seem this movie 10x before?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

there has been no predictable market pattern around other shutdowns and most markets that dipped have recovered with a couple months of diving
for those with cash, it's buying opportunity

what's different this time is: 

a) the shutdown is occurring after the worst crash next the great depression and investors worldwide and still spooked and jittery
b) the anger and bitterness of the conservative minority is at a fever pitch and they give every appearance of not caring a damn about the consequence

but, i still do think the republicans will fold since they cannot win
whatever happens to the markets will probably correct in the following few months


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

Senator Obama, March 16, 2006:



> Mr. President, I rise today to talk about America's debt problem.
> 
> The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can't pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistence from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies.


Possibly the only truthful statement the man has ever made.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

^ 

Evil muslim socialist bent on destroying the west?


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

andrewf said:


> ^
> 
> Evil muslim socialist bent on destroying the west?


Certainly a sign of a self-absorbed incompetent bullshitter who has skated through life and has now reached the acme of the Peter Principle. :chuncky:


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

If you think Obama is incompetent, what must you have thought of Bush 43?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Nemo2 said:


> ... [obama] a self-absorbed incompetent bullshitter who has skated through life and has now reached the acme of the Peter Principle. :chuncky:



do u think critics like these are just missing the alzy palsy ronald reagan days?


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

Oh those were the days to be sure! When men were men, actors were presidents and we kicked those commie basturds to the curb. George W. was a great president. And his father should have had a second term if not for the lefty conspiracy that brought The Great Adulterer to power! Jeb in 2016!

Lol. Sorry, couldn't resist! :biggrin:


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> do u think critics like these are just missing the alzy palsy ronald reagan days?


Rather I think that those who are unable to recognize a fraud and a conman from the get-go are destined to pay dearly for the consequences.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

dubmac said:


> Many of you follow the political debate with more insight than I do ...or can.
> I have a lil bit of $ set aside to buy VUS on a correction.
> I will be watching over the next few weeks - but does anyone know when this debt ceiling debate will really get serious?
> That will hopefully coincide with a drop in VUS
> Some say mid-Oct, some say November.


At what level should we jump in and buy some VUS? Latest quote $34.07.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Great read & very informative:

How 30 House Republicans are forcing the Obamacare fight


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I wouldn't dream of buying US stocks at these levels. The US market is overvalued... CAPE is very high. Earnings have been stagnant for over a year and are not increasing.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The U.S. is the greatest country on earth with the most ridiculous form of government and a ridiculous quantity of guns of all types. It sort of makes one proud to be Canadian even with some of the problems that we have which seem miniscule by comparison. I used to be jealous of Americans and wish that I was one of them but that sentiment passed many years ago. Thank God that I live here and not down there!!! 

To any Americans reading this post, you have my deepest sympathy. You deserve better.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Although somewhat disfunction I strongly believe that the US has a better political system compared to Canada. Look at us now, someone who got the vote 25% of eligible votes and they have an all out dictatorship.

The American system is unfortunately open to corruption (as we see now) and is based on the understanding that everyone has a vested interest in the betterment of the country. Unfortunately we don't see that now but really Canada pales in comparison to so many things that is America that it's ridiculous to claim otherwise.

It's similar to someone saying Perry Sound is better than Montreal. Sure in some way but really....


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

The American system can be good if they followed their constitution which they don't seem to be doing now.

The system is also run by two parties that are wide open to special interests to get elected. Overall at this moment, I would want nothing to do with their system as it is run today.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

none said:


> Although somewhat disfunction I strongly believe that the US has a better political system compared to Canada. Look at us now, someone who got the vote 25% of eligible votes and they have an all out dictatorship.


Remember Bush vs. Gore Florida 2000?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Oh please...........no more hanging shads............


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

This just in, debt ceiling crisis not resolved, government shut down, government employees told to stay home or if they come to work, do nothing except maybe change the message on the answering machines.

So no more spending and no more interfering in peoples lives. But there must be a down side.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

none said:


> Although somewhat disfunction I strongly believe that the US has a better political system compared to Canada.


when i moved back to canada, i remember thinking that the political system seemed almost tyrannical, the sitting government can do whatever it wants and can't be stopped

in the usa, various congressmen and senators can gather immense power to affect the process

after 10 years in canada i have a LOT more respect for the parliamentary system

the flaws and huge problems of the american system are now laid out upon the table for all to see

though i do think neither system is perfect and both can be improved

i would like to see an experiment with proportional representation though it also has many problems especially of efficiency (exactly what ails the united states)


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Proportional representation works quite well is Oz.

I think it's better to have a less efficient system if it is more fair. Personally I like minority government because of this. A governments efficacy shouldn't be measured by how many new laws etc that are rammed through but rather on good governance.

There are a lot more checks and balances to power in the US compared to Canada as there is a tremendous amount of power concentrated in the PMO. Unfortunately as I said before, a critical assumption of US government process is that all parties will work in the best interest of the country. Currently it appears that this assumption is invalid but worked quite well prior to Gingrich.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

none said:


> Proportional representation works quite well is Oz.
> 
> I think it's better to have a less efficient system if it is more fair. Personally I like minority government because of this. A governments efficacy shouldn't be measured by how many new laws etc that are rammed through but rather on good governance.
> 
> There are a lot more checks and balances to power in the US compared to Canada as there is a tremendous amount of power concentrated in the PMO. Unfortunately as I said before, a critical assumption of US government process is that all parties will work in the best interest of the country. Currently it appears that this assumption is invalid but worked quite well prior to Gingrich.


well said, i agree that fairness is critical especially as we see more and more "minorities" (and i mean beyond just racial identification) ... people need to find a voice that speaks for them ... they seem to get it done in israel which has like one party for every 12 people or something

in both canada and the usa we are seeing more and more laws rammed through, i read somewhere that the average person commits three felonies a day or some such silly thing

the checks and balances are greater in the usa but can create the kind of chaos that we see now


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

Ok, so why did all my stocks go UP today? Like quite a bit too.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

favelle75 said:


> Ok, so why did all my stocks go UP today? Like quite a bit too.


no kidding. I think this shows how complex the situation is.
Its hard to get a real grasp on the situation through news articles.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

daddybigbucks said:


> no kidding. I think this shows how complex the situation is.
> Its hard to get a real grasp on the situation through news articles.


Exactly. I fully expected all my stocks to go way down, especially my US ETF. Nope, that one almost gained the most!


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

daddybigbucks said:


> I think this shows how complex the situation is.


No, I think it shows that day-to-day market moves are completely unpredictable. More often than not, they don't have any rational explanation.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

favelle75 said:


> Exactly. I fully expected all my stocks to go way down, especially my US ETF. Nope, that one almost gained the most!


The market knows that most of this is political posturing.
The summer 2011 sell-off was triggered by a significant, material event - the S&P downgrade.

In fact, it is possible that once the budget deal is done, the markets may actually sell off a little.
Extending debt ceiling without any appreciable spending cuts is usually frowned upon by capital markets.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

none said:


> Proportional representation works quite well is Oz.
> 
> I think it's better to have a less efficient system if it is more fair. Personally I like minority government because of this. A governments efficacy shouldn't be measured by how many new laws etc that are rammed through but rather on good governance.


Proportional representation gives the system to party leaders.

What do you mean by more fair? The situation in the US is a great example of the system working.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

There are proportional systems that still have local representiatves. STV is a good example.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

grasp sword ... insert quickly ... pull forcefully in a lateral direction
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/04/us/politics/debt-limit-impasse.html?hp


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The markets are starting to tank. Some are predicting a bigger drop than when Lehman collapsed. Hold on and, if anyone is looking for me, you'll find me hiding under the bed. Stupid U.S. politicians. They should be charged with economic terrorism
There goes our retirement savings! At least I have 40 per cent in bonds and 10 per cent in a HISA. Good luck to anyone with a 100 per cent allocation to equities! Hang on for the ride.


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

Lighten up! This too shall pass...


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## Jay3 (Jul 16, 2013)

If the stock market it going to crash, why would we hold tight?

Why not sell tomorrow? Avoid the loses, and buy back when it's clear the market is on the rise.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

The moment there's a resolution, it's likely markets will make up all of the losses in the last 2-3 weeks, potentially in a as few as 5-10 minutes. Are you fast enough to react?


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

Then buy OTM Call options... limit your downside and gain your upside.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

Republicans are the rich elites right? They won't want to see their net worth wiped out. So don't worry... they will move soon.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Good luck with trying to build a system based on events. Dispite popular believe emotions cause man made events.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

The slide so far is too small to move the Republicans. America needs a real market crash to stop the insanity.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

from the montreal exchange, a video on how to hedge an entire portfolio with SXO options:

[video]http://m-x.tv/node/627[/video]


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

GoldStone said:


> The slide so far is too small to move the Republicans. America needs a real market crash to stop the insanity.


these guys apparently love the idea of a massive economic turnaround with their morning coffee: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/09/u...er-theory-default-wouldnt-be-that-bad.html?hp


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

There is no real shutdown - the govt. workers ostensibly furloughed are still accruing full wages and benefits.
They will get paid as soon as the debt ceiling is reached.

The only thing shut down are the services that ordinary citizens need and deserve.
The Treasury is not saving one red cent because of the so-called shutdown.

The following quote from the article is not true, either:



> You’ve had the federal government out of work for close to two weeks; that’s about $24 billion a month. Every month, you have enough saved in salaries alone that you’re covering three-fifths, four-fifths of the total debt service, about $35 billion a month. That’s manageable for some time.


Wrong. There is no saving in salaries.
The whole shutdown (and the debt ceiling) is a smoke screen.
The only thing shutdown is services for ordinary people.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> from the montreal exchange, a video on how to hedge an entire portfolio with SXO options:
> 
> [video]http://m-x.tv/node/627[/video]


interesting pie ... a good primer on how options can hedge the downside ... i keep thinking about about duration ... in other words, how can we price in the cost of portfolio "shrinkage" versus time ? ... if the portfolio goes down as in your example say 10% or $13K that has different meanings if it comes back in 2 months versus coming back in 12 months .... hedging to the downside makes more sense if you think the downturn will be extraordinary and also present a lot of opportunity value and maybe not worth it for a normal correction ... $3.6K seems a lot to spend on a 100K portfolio for a seasonal bump i guess

the guy is a model of clarity in his explanation, i will say that ... thanks


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Jay3 said:


> If the stock market it going to crash, why would we hold tight?
> 
> Why not sell tomorrow? Avoid the loses, and buy back when it's clear the market is on the rise.


I do not try to minimize the volatility of my portfolio through market timing. I accomplish that by way of establishing a target asset allocation appropriate to my circumstances and risk tolerance, hold index products through all market conditions while buying or selling only for rebalancing purposes.

Also, do you know if the U.S. politicians are actually going to take us over the brink or are they going to solve this beforehand and when?

Nobody knows. 

To me, asset allocation is the key and it works for me but may not be for everyone as some like researching individual stocks and trying to determine the best time to buy, how long to hold, and when to sell. I don't have the skills or interest to bother with all of that.

And that is why I am a 'buy and hold' investor and not a market timer. 

To each his own.

Oh, and by the way, many investors overestimate their risk tolerance and only find out when the markets crash, as they are want to do from time to time for whatever reason(s).

Getting your asset allocation right is more important than which individual investments you select for your portfolio but many investors spend much more time on the latter.


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> There is no real shutdown - the govt. workers ostensibly furloughed are still accruing full wages and benefits.
> They will get paid as soon as the debt ceiling is reached.
> 
> The only thing shut down are the services that ordinary citizens need and deserve.
> The Treasury is not saving one red cent because of the so-called shutdown.


Right: the shutdown was never designed as a money-saving measure. The shutdown happens because the budget for FY 2013 (which began on October 1) was not approved, nor was a continuing resolution approved. Without a budget, the government can't operate, so it shuts down. Authorizing back pay is something Congress has the discretion to do, and they agreed to it. They could have said no if they wanted to, but that would have been even more risky poitically than what they've already done.

The shutdown does have broader effects than just eliminating services. Government contractors have had to stop work, and some of them are going unpaid (no back pay) or using up their vacation time. Some have to take leave without pay. Shutting down the government (and starting it up again) costs a lot of money. It's not like you flip a switch. There are many hours of work to do, stop-work orders to be issued, etc., and then when it starts up again there will be a big delay as the backlog of work gets slogged through.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

I just got back from a two-week vacation and am catching up on all of the CMF discussions here. 

Even though I was aware of the US Government shutdown, when I left for vacation, I wasn't aware of the connection to the closure of National Parks (I guess I should have. I just didn't see it.) I was able to visit Yellowstone National Park (as it turns out, on the last two days that it was open.)

However, two days later, I traveled to Utah and was a bit shocked when I saw the following.










In the end, it didn't change my vacation too much. I was able to find/discover alternative activities/hikes in the western USA.

But, what a hit to tourism. I met a lot of disappointed fellow tourists.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Sounds like you lucked out Avrex, a little bit.  

Whatta mess the U.S. is....


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

By the way, that is 'me' on the other side of the fence, defying the US government. :glee:


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

brad said:


> Right: the shutdown was never designed as a money-saving measure.


But that is the general perception in the mainstream media, incl. that article from none other than NY Times.
The media is simply swallowing and regurgitating the same myths circulating everywhere.



> *Government contractors *have had to stop work, and some of them are going unpaid (no back pay) or using up their vacation time. Some have to take leave without pay.


You mean the government contractors engaged in spying on innocent civilians, espionage against foreign sovereign governments and nationals; and the private military contractors engaged in ex-judicial arrests, torture and drone attacks?
Cry me a river.
If the _only_ result of US government shutdown is less spying and torture around the world, let everyone breath a sigh of relief.


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> You mean the government contractors engaged in spying on innocent civilians, espionage against foreign sovereign governments and nationals; and the private military contractors engaged in ex-judicial arrests, torture and drone attacks?


Maybe a quick primer on government contracting is in order. Congress gives US federal agencies a lot of work to do, but because Congress wants to limit the size of government they place tight restrictions on the number of employees that agencies can hire. This means that agencies have no choice but to hire contractors so they can accomplish all the work that Congress authorizes them to do every year. The US federal government awards about $500 billion per year in contracts (that works out to $1.4 billion per day); most agencies use contractors to help them accomplish their work. To say that government contractors are spies and murderers equates to saying that the purpose of the US federal government is to kill people. You probably believe that, which is fine. But for those who are willing to learn, it's worth noting that government contractors include cancer researchers, emergency search and rescue personnel who save lives during disasters, healthcare workers, engineers, computer programmers, humanitarian aid workers, scientists of all sorts, communications workers, and on and on.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)




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## SpendLessEarnMore (Aug 7, 2013)

Anyone see a 500 point drop in DJI and huge drops in all other US market this Monday? And that would probably mean world markets will be plummeting too.

It just seems so quiet before the storm lol


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

SpendLessEarnMore said:


> Anyone see a 500 point drop in DJI and huge drops in all other US market this Monday? And that would probably mean world markets will be plummeting too.
> 
> It just seems so quiet before the storm lol


I don't. Everything is closed on Monday..US and Canada. No?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

dotnet_nerd said:


> Huh? Not the US their Thanksgiving is on Nov. 28


It's a propaganda, scratch, Bartolomé Day! Or for the average joe, just another long weekend.

The contracts are going to be a real mess if this goes much longer. That's probably all I should say.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

What do you expect from markets on Monday and rest of the week?


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## SpendLessEarnMore (Aug 7, 2013)

well the debt ceiling deadline is this Thursday. Both sides are playing chicken to see who flinches first. If both call each other's bluff the U.S. will go past the deadline without the debt ceiling raised and have interest payments on their debt to make by end of the month otherwise they'll officially defaulted. Market will panic but I think they'll raise the ceiling near end of month to make the interest payments. 

In terms what I'll be doing since I trade mainly on TSX. I'll just wait and scoop up the cheap stocks.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

dotnet_nerd said:


> Huh? Not the US their Thanksgiving is on Nov. 28


My bad, I thought Monday was Columbus Day in the US.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

brad said:


> Maybe a quick primer on government contracting is in order. Congress gives US federal agencies a lot of work to do, but because Congress wants to limit the size of government they place tight restrictions on the number of employees that agencies can hire. This means that agencies have no choice but to hire contractors so they can accomplish all the work that Congress authorizes them to do every year. The US federal government awards about $500 billion per year in contracts (that works out to $1.4 billion per day); most agencies use contractors to help them accomplish their work. To say that government contractors are spies and murderers equates to saying that the purpose of the US federal government is to kill people. You probably believe that, which is fine. But for those who are willing to learn, it's worth noting that government contractors include cancer researchers, emergency search and rescue personnel who save lives during disasters, healthcare workers, engineers, computer programmers, humanitarian aid workers, scientists of all sorts, communications workers, and on and on.


 Let the market decide what work needs to be done not the government. If there is a job that needs doing & is important it will get done a lot better then leaving it up to the inefficient government to do. Volunteers & the market not government will make the country strong. The government has to stop trying to be responsible for everything & let the people take responsibility other wise it makes the country fat, lazy & unproductive


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> Let the market decide what work needs to be done not the government. If there is a job that needs doing & is important it will get done a lot better then leaving it up to the inefficient government to do. Volunteers & the market not government will make the country strong. The government has to stop trying to be responsible for everything & let the people take responsibility other wise it makes the country fat, lazy & unproductive


Mmmm, there are so many examples to demonstrate how wrongheaded this is, but for just one, take a look at what happened when California deregulated electricity and left it up to the market to sort out the price and services.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> Let the market decide what work needs to be done not the government. If there is a job that needs doing & is important it will get done a lot better then leaving it up to the inefficient government to do. Volunteers & the market not government will make the country strong. The government has to stop trying to be responsible for everything & let the people take responsibility other wise it makes the country fat, lazy & unproductive


except all the market thinks about is making money ... there is no altruism in the market ... no society or economy can thrive without altruism

and government isn't responsible for everything 

the new york times ahas an article about seniors that need dental work who can only get it by signing on to loans with usurious interest rates and terms they don't even understand ...this is what the market often does, it serves itself at the expense of the welfare of people

i am not anti-market (or pro big-government, i love to see good free market solutions) by any means but the libertarian argument just doesn't work


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I don't think the concept of privatization has any traction left........given past performance and the recent necessity for government bailouts to business.


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## SpendLessEarnMore (Aug 7, 2013)

boy did I lay an egg the market is actually up.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

sags said:


> I don't think the concept of privatization has any traction left........given past performance and the recent necessity for government bailouts to business.


Not to mention the disregard for the environment and anything other than money. Everyone knows big government is bad, most people are beginning to see that a puppet government is also bad. There needs to be a balance between the government (driven by votes) and the market (driven by profit)


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Obama leaves news conference disappointed


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## SkyFall (Jun 19, 2012)

Some hope in the air

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101102554


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Obama shows frustration


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

lonewolf said:


> Let the market decide what work needs to be done not the government. If there is a job that needs doing & is important it will get done a lot better then leaving it up to the inefficient government to do. Volunteers & the market not government will make the country strong. The government has to stop trying to be responsible for everything & let the people take responsibility other wise it makes the country fat, lazy & unproductive


Apparently someone hasn't worked for private industry. I'm worked for them all and the bigger they are the more inefficient they are. 

I was once involved in a private industry project that had the ultimate goal of proving that pH was on the log scale. 'Efficient' private industry - give me a break.

Some are efficient, some aren't - same as government.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

The market can't decide with the stock and bond markets being rigged by central banks through QE and whatever else they have going on. The markets also need regulations and rules so we don't end up like we did in 2008. The government, courts and regulators or whatever need to set up the playing field and then the market should decide.

Or we let the market decide by stopping QE everywhere let the world implode currencies get destroyed and let all banks that go down stay down. This would be quick but incredibly painful.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

It's not looking good. Talks broke down this afternoon. If we aren't going over the cliff, we sure as heck are on the edge. It could be worse than 2008. Hang onto your money! I hope that you have confidence in your target asset allocation. Nothing is more important when it comes to investing. Good luck to us all!!!!

I am hiding under the bed.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Belguy said:


> I hope that you have confidence in your target asset allocation. Nothing is more important when it comes to investing.
> 
> I am hiding under the bed.


If you have confidence in your asset allocation, you shouldn't be hiding under the bed! Just sayin.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

I was wondering if their is a default it may be a good time to snap up a US Equity Index Fund?


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Heh, CC, I just noticed that I have more posts than you. Does that mean that I'm smarter than you?

Actually, as I write this, I don't have all that much confidence in my target asset allocation which is 10 per cent cash, 40 per cent fixed income, and 50 per cent equities.

Since I am now 70, I would probably be more confident with a 30 per cent equity allocation. I would be interested in hearing from other geezers as to their own allocations.
Young


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

newfoundlander61 said:


> I was wondering if their is a default it may be a good time to snap up a US Equity Index Fund?


Could be the mother of all sales!!


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Was wondering when Belguy would show up. Surprised it took this long.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Jon_Snow said:


> Was wondering when Belguy would show up. Surprised it took this long.


I have become more sedate in my old age.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Belguy, you have grown on me as time has gone on. Your thread in which your little furry departed friend was discussed... It moved me greatly.

But I'd love to know how many "I'm hiding under my bed!" posts you have authored in the past 4 years... We are all still here my friend, and most of us doing quite well.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Belguy said:


> It's not looking good. Talks broke down this afternoon. If we aren't going over the cliff, we sure as heck are on the edge. It could be worse than 2008. Hang onto your money! I hope that you have confidence in your target asset allocation. Nothing is more important when it comes to investing. Good luck to us all!!!!
> 
> I am hiding under the bed.


Some classic Belguy lines. Where have you been?

Regarding the 'hiding under the bed' issue - I'm thinking that BG has a bunk bed and is 'hiding' on the lower level. Outfitted with sheets of the highest quality thread, goose down pillows + comfy pjs. The room has a big tv + surround sound and a fully stocked bar. 

Hiding indeed!


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Jon_Snow said:


> Belguy, you have grown on me as time has gone on. Your thread in which your little furry departed friend was discussed... It moved me greatly.
> 
> But I'd love to know how many "I'm hiding under my bed!" posts you have authored in the past 4 years... We are all still here my friend, and most of us doing quite well.


right, and you talk talk talk about how unhappy you are with your asset allocation and yet never do anything about it ... you sound like me talking about my waistline :rolleyes2: ... actually i'm doing yoga and cutting down on sweets and snacks ... so belguy, you gotta sell some equities man :tongue-new:


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

This year, I reduced my equity allocation from 60 per cent to 50 per cent and next year I'm planning to reduce it further to 40 per cent and so at least I have a plan. I also have to convert my RRSP' s next year and so will have other decisions to make.

In the meantime, it bugs me that the Tea Party is in control of the quality of my retirement. Very scary.

In any event, tomorrow should be an interesting day. Hold on to your wallet.


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

so, is today the big day or what?

an article suggests they might be able to hold out until Nov 15, but then its all over
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/key-dates-after-the-u-s-debt-limit-deadline-1.2055325

If they dont get their loan today, are you going to sell all US stock? what about canadian stocks?


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

No, I am not planning on selling anything because I don't try to time the markets no matter what is going on in the world. However, I will adjust my asset allocation as I get older. My days of having my highest allocation to equities has come to an end but I will never completely abandon them.


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## SpendLessEarnMore (Aug 7, 2013)

they seem to be voting on proloning this issue until January/February???? So this whole scenario will play out again in the New Year how great for the market.


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## MoneyGal (Apr 24, 2009)

SLEM: the U.S. government has been enacting a series of emergency measures since May to raise the debt ceiling. Postponing it isn't a "new" thing!


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

US markets way up...........last I checked.

But it can change in a heartbeat..........deal or no deal...........pick a suitcase.


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## SpendLessEarnMore (Aug 7, 2013)

"Reid said the Senate deal under discussion would reopen the government by funding it until January 15. It also would raise the debt limit until February 7 to avert a possible default on U.S. debt obligations for the first time."

Yes but this whole scenario with government shutting down would just play out again in mid-January.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

They will solve things again in 2014 in much of the same manner. And Belguy will be back to pronounce he is going back under the bed. For everybody else, enjoy the stock market gains and dividends until then.


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