# Wanting The Economy To Crash?



## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

I know this is weird, but there is a little part of me that would really like to see a whole sale crash in the markets. Not because I wouldn't be affected, I would be, but more to see some of the smugness wiped off the face of people who think everything is always going up forever and thats a lot of people. I would like to see the banks and central bankers sweating. I would like to see the leaders of companies who make nothing, like facebook really get creamed. I would like to see the 20 somethings with benz's and new houses have to turn in the keys to the banker. I would like to see sovereign debt really hit home in the dozens of countries who are essentially broke but keep on chugging along. Most of all, I would love to see the pumpers on CNBC handed their hats.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Talk to Garth: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/13/2016/ , he'll make your wish come true (one day... )


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

tygrus said:


> Not because I wouldn't be affected, I would be, but more to see some of the smugness wiped off the face of people who think everything is always going up forever and thats a lot of people. .


Well I hope you get hit by a bus. Unfortunately, dreams don't always come true sweatheart.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I must admit I would have liked to see the smug smiles wiped off the banker's faces when they answered questions at Congressional/Senate hearings into the banking collapse.

But they sat there defending their bonuses, adopting the Sgt. Shultz defense..." I know nothing......nothing", while simultaneously claiming to be the smartest people in the universe.

As they sat there, I was thinking of all those Americans with everything they owned dumped on the side of the road by the bailiff, and the retirees applying for jobs at Walmart.

Ideally as the bankers sat there.........some sheriffs would have entered the room and stood in a line behind them dangling shiny new handcuffs in their hands.

But alas...........they were "too big to fail" and they knew it. In fact, they designed it that way.

Banking 101...........make yourself bulletproof from all the pain while collecting all the rewards.

As for everyone else...........Ma and Pa Public.........no I don't hope for an economic crash. They would suffer the most.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

none said:


> Well I hope you get hit by a bus.


Omg I think I just saw you passing by lol:


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

none said:


> Well I hope you get hit by a bus. Unfortunately, dreams don't always come true sweatheart.


Hey friend, didn't I see you on CNBC?


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I like Larry Livingstone's remark: "I am not interested in the bull side or the bear side. I am interested in the right side. I want to be on the right side of the market no matter which way it is going".


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

Let me replace the word crash with `back to fundamentals`


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am not sure anyone really knows what the fundamentals are in this environment. Tygrus while I agree that I wish the bankers would suffer, the problem is they will make us suffer much, much more then they will. If they are losing control they will take us to war and look around you at what is going on.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Sure there are historical reference points and historical norms.

The norm is not 0% interest rates or negative interest rates. The norm is more like 5% overnight rates.
The norm is not for central banks to directly buy bonds or stocks on the open market... a direct manipulation of the market.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

A total crash would be devastating in this environment of high-debt loads.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

A housing crash may be the worst from a consumer point of view.

Millions of jobs depend on real estate related industries, personal "net wealth" would decline, and the "wealth affect" would be replaced by the yoke of debt.

The best scenario is that homes level off in price and wages eventually catch up.


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

As a millenial priced out of housing (and largely out of the stock market at these levels) it's hard not to agree with the OP's sentiment.


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## Karlhungus (Oct 4, 2013)

Janus said:


> As a millenial priced out of housing (and largely out of the stock market at these levels) it's hard not to agree with the OP's sentiment.


Time in the market beats timing the market...


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

Karlhungus said:


> Time in the market beats timing the market...


We all love our platitudes, but that just cannot justify buying into tech stocks in 1999 or toronto housing in 2016.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

sags said:


> The best scenario is that homes level off in price and wages eventually catch up.


Houses will level off because wages will never catch up. They have never caught up to the economy, they always fall behind. Remember the one income household. Now tech and foreign workers and offshoring keep that trend going for the foreseeable future.


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## Karlhungus (Oct 4, 2013)

Janus said:


> We all love our platitudes, but that just cannot justify buying into tech stocks in 1999 or toronto housing in 2016.


That platitude refers to the stock market as a whole, not a sector nor the real estate market. By the time you decide to buy, the tsx could be at 15,000 and the Dow at 20,000, and they could never touch their current valuations ever again


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Janus said:


> As a millenial priced out of housing (and largely out of the stock market at these levels) it's hard not to agree with the OP's sentiment.


I know a number of people around 25-29 years old that have minimal understanding of finances, average or below incomes, save a few hundred bucks a month at best, have too-expensive cars on lease, think the stock market "is dangerous" and have bought 5-10x income houses with 5% down (and that 5% is often borrowed/gifted from daddy), on the premise that "buying a house is just something you do in your 20" or "renting is throwing money away". With very little evidence of any deeper analysis than those two quotes...

I also know a number of people (though fewer) who are 25-29, reasonably responsible with their lives and finances, average or above incomes, save $1000+/month, buy inexpensive cars and live frugally, are focused on building their future. Many of them have decided over the past 5 years that affording a house was not something they were able to responsibly do, and are continuing to save for a 20% minimum down payment for potentially a home purchase in the future.

And yet, the former group's arrogance and happiness regarding their "smart home investment" is through the roof, while the latter group's regret and sadness regarding their "delayed adulthood" is palpable.

Sometimes I think it would be nice if the practical and responsible thinkers were the ones rewarded with success, and the reckless and thoughtless bumblers through life were shown that that attitude will lead to utter failure. Sure hasn't been the case for the last 5-10 years though...


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Tygrus, although your motive is a tad suspect, you will get your wish. Many people don't know or don't care that economies and therefore stock markets are cyclical. Governments and central banks talk a persuasive, but foolish talk, concerning reducing or even eliminating cycles. It ain't going to happen. Believing them only proves one is a sheep. And the sheep won't know it until it is too late. However, it is not productive to criticize the current crop of sheep. Prophets of doom are too abstract, too many, refer to too many confusing indicators, and warn too often. They become part of the problem by allowing themselves to become annoying background noise. 

It's like Alexander the Great on one side of a river, and the massive Persian army on the other. Alexander had his men frequently march to a river crossing. The Persians heard them coming and were, at first, wary and ready. But the Greeks didn't cross. So what the heck was that about the Persians wondered? The surmised they had the Greeks intimidated, and this daily noisy marching to the river crossing was just Alexander keeping his troops in shape for the long march home. The Persians relaxed, and were lulled to sleep. But not all of them. Some tried to convince the confident that it was a trick, but they were dismissed. So the perpetually wary among the Persians, subtly found excuses to camp a little further from the river crossing, while they thought, they would let the confident be in the front lines when the inevitable occurred. Sure enough, one day, totally unexpected, yet in plain sight, Alexander's best troops crossed the river and soundly trounced the confident. 

The signs of a late stage bull market are in plain sight. But no matter. The confident have convinced themselves that the prophets of doom are just foolish noise and are missing out on untold riches, while the wary quietly subtly move to a safer position.


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## caifin (Dec 6, 2015)

Great post. There will always be inequality in this country/world because there will be people who work hard to build their nest egg while those reckless with their finance live month to month. I have seen people working minimum wage jobs for a few years, saved up and build their networth from scratch into a sizeable amount. I also know a few bankers and lawyers that make well over 100k per year that spend all their money quickly and have nothing left for savings. Honestly, it's what you make of your situation.




peterk said:


> I know a number of people around 25-29 years old that have minimal understanding of finances, average or below incomes, save a few hundred bucks a month at best, have too-expensive cars on lease, think the stock market "is dangerous" and have bought 5-10x income houses with 5% down (and that 5% is often borrowed/gifted from daddy), on the premise that "buying a house is just something you do in your 20" or "renting is throwing money away". With very little evidence of any deeper analysis than those two quotes...
> 
> I also know a number of people (though fewer) who are 25-29, reasonably responsible with their lives and finances, average or above incomes, save $1000+/month, buy inexpensive cars and live frugally, are focused on building their future. Many of them have decided over the past 5 years that affording a house was not something they were able to responsibly do, and are continuing to save for a 20% minimum down payment for potentially a home purchase in the future.
> 
> ...


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

peterk said:


> Sometimes I think it would be nice if the practical and responsible thinkers were the ones rewarded with success, and the reckless and thoughtless bumblers through life were shown that that attitude will lead to utter failure. Sure hasn't been the case for the last 5-10 years though...


Coming from a guy so massively invested in oil both through employment and investments that's a level of arrogance that I think is unjustified.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Well, maybe I'll come to regret my arrogant mistakes and it'll make you so happy mr none! Wouldn't that be great?


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

peterk said:


> Well, maybe I'll come to regret my arrogant mistakes and it'll make you so happy mr none! Wouldn't that be great?


Not at all. I just get a bit frustrated with willful ignorance. It drives me a bit batty.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

It's a high risk but I'm willing to take it. I don't like willful ignorance either.

And I promise I won't get all arrogant if oil turns around next year and I make 100k off my high-gamble investments.


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

peterk said:


> It's a high risk but I'm willing to take it. I don't like willful ignorance either.
> 
> And I promise I won't get all arrogant if oil turns around next year and I make 100k off my high-gamble investments.


Ok, now I've got to check out your financial journal thread...



Karlhungus said:


> That platitude refers to the stock market as a whole, not a sector nor the real estate market. By the time you decide to buy, the tsx could be at 15,000 and the Dow at 20,000, and they could never touch their current valuations ever again


My point is simply that while being in the market in general matters, I refuse to let a saying override my brain/investment process which tells me it's a dangerous time to invest.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Janus said:


> Ok, now I've got to check out your financial journal thread...


Haha, nothing but a sea of red right now I'm afraid. :stupid:


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## Nerd Investor (Nov 3, 2015)

Janus said:


> Ok, now I've got to check out your financial journal thread...
> 
> 
> 
> My point is simply that while being in the market in general matters, I refuse to let a saying override my brain/investment process which tells me it's a dangerous time to invest.


The key is actually to let your investment process override your brain.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

I'm in the green by less than half a percent as of closing friday 
To fully retire at 65 with a million dollar portfolio without further contributions (though I still do add a bit here and there), I need an average return of 12%.

I was on track lol.. since I started keeping track of xirr with year 2012 that is, ofc one can't expect the bull market to advance forever, and I didn't, which is why I was sitting on 30% cash.

Dunno if the strategy I've worked out will get me through with solid gains but at least I'm ready if buying opportunities present themselves (for individual stocks, if I recognize them, but with index it's a no-brainer, probably the best way to go too, which I'm fairly sure time will prove true to me at least)


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