# 2014



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

What do we expect 2014 to look or be like?

Stock Market: As long as the Fed can hold it together then the stock market should just climb until it can't any longer which is what most people are thinking this year. I think the Fed will try the taper scheme and it will go badly or they will enter the repo market and find other ways to stimulate with the taper.

Fed: The Fed will taper as mentioned above as the bogus economic recovery accelerates and then turn course when the stock market corrects very hard along with the bond market.

Manipulation will be big again this year along with TA and Algo trading but you can forget about fundamentals. 

Gold and Silver will reach their lows for this bear market during the Taper scheme and then head to $1,800 or higher before year end, with little to no gold left to manipulate it lower.

Bitcoin will go to the dust bin and possibly a new currency will rise up that has more backing. 

Year 5 of every decade is positive except for a slight dip in 2005 I believe going back a hundred or more years so a nice dip in the stock market this year could set up a positive 2015.

On the world front we will have to see what the BRIC nations do along with Iran that could cause problems in 2014.

In sports maybe the Leafs will get to the second round and beyond. In the NFL hopefully the Seahawks can win the super bowl.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

_“He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass.”_

-- Edgar Fiedler


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I suppose I won't be eating glass then since I believe everything I forecast and I will never be wrong. First thing though, I will need to somehow delete and manipulate my last years forecasts.


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

My sense is that the broad markets are going higher. There is still plenty of pessimism out there and I view that as a healthy sign. When my colleagues at work start talking about or even noticing the stock market, it may be time to lighten up on equities. Personally I'm in a "hold course" right now. Nothing much interesting to buy and there appears to be enough potential upside to not sell.


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## braintootired (Nov 4, 2013)

My concern is whether market volatility will rise after the Fed's taper, and how to play it correctly. I have no macroeconomic background. Going to hit the books during the Xmas break.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Funny, I have also noticed that the man on the street doesn't seem to have a lot of interest spidey and yet bullish sentiment is sky high. Of course having the market go straight up certainly doesn't hurt sentiment. Maybe the man on the street will be pulled in during the first half during RRSP season as the market performance of 2013 pulls them in. This is where we could get our blow off top to cap this bull run along with a Taper.

Braintootired the market really is all about the Fed and what they do and has been since 2008. Another problem coming up is Obamacare from what I hear. Apparently this could kill the economy as insurance costs rise dramatically for Americans and more jobs are turned to part time to get under the Obamacare threshold.


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

Actually the "man on the street" or perhaps colleague general interest in stocks may be the best indication that it is time to get out. Just before the 1929 crash Joseph Kennedy knew it was time to get out of stocks when a shoeshine boy gave him a stock tip. Before the tech stock crash in 2000, workplace office chatter was almost totally consumed by the stock market. The 2008 crash was harder to judge because I worked in a smaller office of 4 employees but even just before that crash I remember my colleague, who never indicated a previous interest in investing, telling me that he was selling all his balanced funds and going 100% into equities. 

Right now, none of my colleagues have the slightest interest in the stock market - a bullish sign.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

2014 Predictions Contest

I think I will wait to hear Eder's opinion!


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## maxandrelax (Jul 11, 2012)

Spidey said:


> Before the tech stock crash in 2000, workplace office chatter was almost totally consumed by the stock market. The 2008 crash was harder to judge because I worked in a smaller office of 4 employees but even just before that crash I remember my colleague, who never indicated a previous interest in investing, telling me that he was selling all his balanced funds and going 100% into equities. Right now, none of my colleagues have the slightest interest in the stock market - a bullish sign.


Totally agree. There is no interest or real buzz. In university round 1999, I scraped together a couple grand to start investing. The buzz was unbelievable - on a campus where everyone was broke! I went straight to SW.to and UBS.to at the time, had monstrous gains, and then got my [email protected]# handed to me when the top blew off because I didn't have enough experience to know what to do.

Earlier poster said there is unbridled enthusiasm - everything I have read says that 2014 will be choppy and "have a correction" of 10-30%. I see this a excellent reason to stay the course and continue to contribute. Right now, I am debating the REIT sphere. They are hated and everyone is scared that rising rates will kill them further. I think that this is where my next TFSA contribution will go because I need to top up this asset class.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I'm with Spidey....I think broad markets will go higher and the DOW is likely to get close to 17,000 by the end of next year.

Holding all positions, no intentions to sell.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

kcowan said:


> 2014 Predictions Contest
> 
> I think I will wait to hear Eder's opinion!


Thanks for setting up the prediction contest for 2014 again. This thread is more for general discussion of the possibilities in 2014.

Maxandrelax and spidey I am thinking that the reason we haven't heard much on the street about the markets is because of all that has happened since 2000. Buying stocks on the internet is no longer new so there is less to talk about there. We have had 2 big market crashes since 2000 so many people may be just quietly investing and are less inclined to brag about it incase it crashes again. Also many people feel like Wall street and bankers are a bunch of crooks and feel the markets are rigged somewhat so they will not turn back to it anytime soon.

A lot has changed over the last 13 years to the street investor that could take many years to overcome before we see the sort of bragging that we saw before 2008 or the dot com bubble.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

My Own Advisor you could be right about stocks hitting 17,000 or higher as long as the Fed can keep a lid on the long bond rates.


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## rick (Nov 26, 2013)

Here's my prediction for 2014: the feds are going to mess everything up

First they will start tapering their bond purchase, interest rates are going to climb slightly, the market is going to panic
and we will have a slight correction. Then we will get bad economic data, markets will go down a little more. At that
point the feds will "up" their bond purchased because they have to, can't have a "bad" economy after all those bond
purchases.

That's where everything will go wrong, we'll have a little bump up in the market because investors like it when the feds
waste money. Since the economy will just keep getting worse, we'll have the feds buying even more bonds yet the markets
will finally start to follow the real economy, down we go. 

Feds will be puzzled, "how can the market crash while we're buying all these bonds ??"

I think the economy is real simple, people work, earn money, spend money.

A lot of jobs that have been created in the last few years are not quality jobs, they are low income ones. I don't like where we're going.

Just my 0.02$, I'm no economist and for all I know the Dow could hit 20k and tsx 15k


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

dogcom said:


> A lot has changed over the last 13 years to the street investor that could take many years to overcome before we see the sort of bragging that we saw before 2008 or the dot com bubble.


It is true that WE have not experienced such conditions before. But we have seen the emergence of successful IPOs for companies with no/questionable revenue models. That should be a signal of froth?


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## braintootired (Nov 4, 2013)

If the Fed announces tapering this Wednesday, we can see how the markets reacts Thursday, and it should give us a good picture of what 2014 will be like.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Rick your right the Dow could reach 20,000 if the Fed panics and tries to over fix a Taper mistake. The mistake will be the stock market goes down hard of course and bonds go down without a buyer of last resort.

Kcowan the IPO comment was a good one for where the market sentiment is showing up. Bragging about normal stock gains is so yesterday. If one was to brag it might be through the successful or lucky use of leveraged ETF's or something like that. 

Braintooired do you really think Ben has the balls to Taper at his last meeting. If he does I think he must already know what sort of reaction it will get to make him look good. I think he will most likely go out with a lot of hot air about Tapering and then leave it to Yellen to decide.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

Were all going to be wrong so what does it matter?not trying to be flippant but this thread is a waste of time,does anyone truly believe they can predict the world in the next 12 mths?we are mere mortals!it seems like the market should go higher but wtf.....nobody knows!
If anything the most important lesson I have learned is to tune out predictions,untill your Christ a know!it is a waste of time!M.O


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Donald it is fun to discuss things and think about it and it does matter. Sure the predictions themselves may not matter but the discussions will make us think about many things that we may not otherwise think of. We are blessed to have a forum and internet to discuss and debate matters that no one else in the past has ever had in such a large scale.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Without questions, predictions, imagination and so on we must except everything as it is and there will be no growth. Not to mention we will all be living in a very boring world or one run by elites only who will have us in their hands.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

It is fun i guess but a fruitless conversation never the less.
Stick to your investment plan and leave the fortune telling alone imo
Focus only on the things one can control
Unless your a day trader playing
It is frighting seeing how wrong people are,you can use cmf as a proxy,look at old thread and than compare what really happens.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

My predictions last year were crappy and wrong but I actually like the fact I put it out here for all to see. I find it puts me in my place and makes me pay attention to my mistakes instead of sweeping them under the rug and then only bragging to people or telling people about the winners I have like a lot of people like to do. I know someone at work who brags about the big money he has made at the casino but when I press him about how much he bets to make the big payouts you find the real story. He loses a lot more then he ever makes and it has even put him into some financial trouble. When your betting a thousand or two in a night then winning 10 thousand in one of those nights is a possibility.

Also when you think about it we are always making future predictions to make decisions in our lives. We will think about what the future will look like and run what if scenarios when we accept a new job, buy a house and make investments. Anyway this thread is a discussion about what we may face in 2014 and not really for predictions. If you want to make predictions that is for Kcowan and his 2014 prediction thread.


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## Retired Peasant (Apr 22, 2013)

donald said:


> ...this thread is a waste of time,....
> If anything the most important lesson I have learned is to tune out predictions


And yet, here you are; you could have just marked the thread as read and moved along


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## braintootired (Nov 4, 2013)

Taper has begun.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

I thought the statement was scheduled for 2:30 pm.
Did they announce already?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Yes, the minutes were released at 2:00 pm EST.
So far, very little reaction in the bond market.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

With this move the stock market is now vulnerable to a correction especially if they keep the tapering. The stock market if it keeps going straight up with more and more tapering it could even be setting itself up for a 1987 style event. Margin is very high and sentiment is very high which could lead to a great deal of trouble.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

dogcom said:


> With this move the stock market is now vulnerable to a correction especially if they keep the tapering. The stock market if it keeps going straight up with more and more tapering it could even be setting itself up for a 1987 style event. Margin is very high and sentiment is very high which could lead to a great deal of trouble.


dog, as you know a crash can come at anytime ... there WILL be another crash, that is certain but it may not occur for 5 years or 10 years or it may happen next week 

i take the nice jump today as a) an endorsement of the feds decision to just ease back on the throttle which sends a "we are all ok" signal and also begins a process that many economists and investors want

and b) it is an endorsement of recovery that is slow but is grounded in sold gains in housing and some job improvement and a rebound in many parts of the country and many sectors of the economy

obamacare might end up costing business or it might end up revitalizing an industry that was headed straight into the crapper without some way to increase affordability, which now is on the table

there is a budget agreement and the american deficit is shrinking by the month in large numbers

it may well be the case that the fed has played this thing perfectly and avoided a terrible economic catastrophe

if we can now improve wage growth and disposable income, so much the better


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

Im sure some of you will be right on the finance/ investing side!

In 2014 I predict Brazil to win FiFA 2014. The semi finalists will be Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain.
Dark horses for semis: Belgium, Holland, Uruguay and Chile (not in any particular order).

Merry Christmas to all!


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Bayview with the world cup being in Brazil I think your prediction of Brazil is a good one.

Fatcat I am not thinking crash now but instead a correction of 10 percent or something like that. If however the market keeps going straight up along with more tapering then a crash is very possible as all markets or stocks that go straight up usually come down very fast. Another reason of course is if the bond market really takes a hit and the Fed can't keep it under control which would cause a lot of trouble.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

dogcom said:


> If however the market keeps going straight up along with more tapering then a crash is very possible as all markets or stocks that go straight up usually come down very fast.


well sure they do ... until they don't ;-)


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Look at oil when it went for $150, Nasdaq in 2000, gold when it went for $2000 or silver when it tried for $50. No matter if I was bullish or not I didn't have a dime in any of those when they were testing those levels because of the nature of the straight up parabolic run that they were having. You didn't need a crystal ball or predict anything really to realize how a run like that would end up.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

bayview said:


> I predict Brazil to win FiFA 2014/semi finalists: Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain/Dark horses for semis: Belgium, Holland, Uruguay and Chile.


Before I can predict the champion, I have to see the team play in at least one round [never mind past results & current world rankings].

No Italy/Portugal in even your dark-horse list? I would add Colombia to that list. 

In the Brazilian carnAval/fiesta of football, I think the South American countries will give the other teams a very hard time.

Should be a lot of fun!


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

gold down 40 to 1195


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

William Kaye who worked for Goldman Sachs noted before yesterdays FOMC announcement that gold was being looted out of GLD while the price remained flat. He figured they may use this for a price smash being there was an FOMC meeting the next day. Of course just because it is crooked it doesn't mean they are not in control and will probably look to break the June low and drive out the stops. All markets are now crooked and we may be happy now with the stock market rising but at some point this will all end very badly.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...Shocking_Developments_In_The_War_On_Gold.html


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> Before I can predict the champion, I have to see the team play in at least one round [never mind past results & current world rankings].
> 
> No Italy/Portugal in even your dark-horse list? I would add Colombia to that list.
> 
> ...


Hi Tg,

Ya Colombia has Falcao and possible dark horse too given it also has continent advantage. Italy has historical pedigree but usually starts lacklusterly. Portugal- an inconsistent one man team albeit having the 2nd best player in the world after Messi :encouragement:

The ball is round - anything can happen. Let's see.

( Sorry Dogcom and others for hijacking this thread for non investment matters, unless one bets!)


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

No problem as long as it happens in 2014 and who knows what sort of market superstition could also be attached to the world cup.

The toughest division will be the Italy, England and Uruguay division.


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## underemployedactor (Oct 22, 2011)

Feb 2, 2014 - Seahawks 38, Broncos 35 Marshawn Lynch MVP
You read it here first....


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## underemployedactor (Oct 22, 2011)

Seahawks one win away.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am sure people outside of BC, Washington State and the Yukon because apparently they like the Seahawks are not very happy. I am wondering with the Manning story and the possible hall of fame talk going on if the NFL will try to rig it Denver's way. I hope they let the teams play but I am not so sure after the rigging that went on during the last time the Seahawks were in the Superbowl.

Other then that Seattle will have to keep drives going and not go 3 and punt as they have in the past few games because if they do Manning will destroy them.


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## underemployedactor (Oct 22, 2011)

I'd say it was Seattle that got all the calls at the NFC championship. I was happy with the outcome, but think SF got a little hosed by the reffing.
Seattle's corners should neutralize Peyton's aerial attack to a certain extent, and will definitely stuff the run. Should be close but Seattle will prevail.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

1 to 3 point lead for the Broncos at present. Still early.



> Peyton Manning’s foundation for at-risk youth will receive a $24,800 donation for all the times he shouted “Omaha!” during the AFC championship game Sunday. The donations were organized by the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce after Manning’s 44 pre-snap “Omaha!” calls during the Denver Broncos win over San Diego received national attention. Eight Omaha companies combined to donate $800 to Manning’s “Peyback Foundation” for every time he yelled the city’s name during the Broncos’ victory over the New England Patriots. (SI.com)


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## underemployedactor (Oct 22, 2011)

Broncs -2.5! I''ll take your money boys!

To reiterate my earlier prediction, 'Hawks by 3, Marshawn Lynch MVP. Hopefully Seattle shakes up the shell D and rattles Peyton.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Seahawks are one of the two teams I live and die for... needless to say, my nerves are a bit messed up right now.

No team that I follow has won a major title... tomorrow is big for me.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

GO SEAHAWKS!!!!

They've never won it. They have 2 Canadians vs. 1 for the Broncos. I also feel that Manning, although very talented, is arrogant. Regardless, I am hoping for a great game no matter who the victor. Guess we'll know soon.

Cheers!:cheerful:


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Watching CTV live stream, Seahawks up by 22 points to zero so far in the first half
congrats Seahawk fans!
Feel kinda bad for Denver Broncos, they're getting destroyed so far.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I might die a happy man after all... won't count my chickens until the clock hits zero. Manning is still Manning after all.

BTW, I've been doing shots of Jack Daniels during the course of the game to calm my nerves....


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I hope Denver stays down like the Dow and the Seahawks take it but I can never count out Manning.

I should add since Jon brought up booze that I will be drinking beer in the second half.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I should add that if the Seahawks manage to lose this game, I am done with professional sports forever... 

*downs another shot*


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

^It's already over.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

12 seconds in to the second half and they're another seven points up
I think they can probably manage to not screw it up Jon


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

I lived in Seattle in 79 when the supersonics won the nba chamipionship and I was at that time, a big sports and nba fan

The town went nuts with people dancing in the street

I suspect that celebration will look like a warmup if the hawks hold on

This one looks close to impossible to lose, their defence is ferocious


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## scomac (Aug 22, 2009)

We watched the game at my son's house this evening. He is a life long Seahawks fan and even he was left with a hollow sense of accomplishment after such a one-sided victory. "I thought it would be better than this", were the words that came out of his mouth when the final gun sounded.

I recall vividly the elation I felt following each of the Blue Jays World Series triumphs and I feel bad that my son couldn't have had the same sort of experience that comes from earning victory with the final play of the game. Seattle's victory was so complete as to render the second half a moot point and relegate it into a simple exercise in running down the game clock.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I enjoyed it immensely nonetheless.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

dogcom said:


> What do we expect 2014 to look or be like?
> 
> Stock Market: As long as the Fed can hold it together then the stock market should just climb until it can't any longer which is what most people are thinking this year. I think the Fed will try the taper scheme and it will go badly or they will enter the repo market and find other ways to stimulate with the taper.
> 
> .



Interesting, in 1929 some say the fed intentionaly caused the crash by rising interest rates to punish the banks that broke away from the fed. Now the tide has turned & the independent bank is going to safe the world. The fed is in bussiness to make money. The fed has no power against the mood of the masses


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## underemployedactor (Oct 22, 2011)

scomac said:


> Seattle's victory was so complete as to render the second half a moot point and relegate it into a simple exercise in running down the game clock.


Not sure I entirely agree with that. With Manning as an opponent, there are usually never enough points on the board. It wasn't until Seattle's final TD that I thought it was really over.
I still thought it was a great game, especially if you like good D. How many times do you get a linebacker as MVP?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Loved the game. I felt sorry for the party host who was from Denver (but not a big football fan). But I won the pool.

We get Seattle feed on our satellite service so enjoying the local hype.


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