# Layoffs versus higher markets ... has me thinking ...



## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Layoffs of any size always make the news, whereas new hires - not so much. Still, I can't help but notice what looks like a trend happening with layoffs, and yet there's lots of optimism to go around. Don't know what to make of it ... just something to keep in mind.


 Oct 28 2012 ; *94* National Research Council layoffs seen as "tip of iceberg" of things to come
 Dec 05 2012 ; CP Rail say *4,500* positions will be gone by 2016
 Dec 11 2012 ; SMART Technology fired *30* employees; 25% of (*225*) staff will be terminated by March 2013
 Jan 24 2013 ; Talisman reducing work force; no official number, but *400* is rumoured
 Jan 24 2013 ; Bird Construction rec'd termination notice from an oil sands client (related to Talisman? I dunno)
 Jan 31 2013 ; Best Buy/Future Shop layoff *900 *workers; close 15 stores
 Feb 01 2013 ; Sears Canada *700* employees laid off
 Feb 01 2013 ; Timmins closes Shania Twain centre; Goldcorp will acquire the property & demolish the structure

~~~~~//~~~~~

*In other news:*

Balzac Billy joins Wiarton Willie and Punxsutawney Phil in predicting early spring.


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Just some general things I've noticed by are just my opinions:

Sears has been in a death spiral for years. I wouldn't compare them to the overall economy. 

Smart doesn't seem to make money, at least it took me about two minutes to pass over them as I looked into them as an investment. 

Best but has been getting killed lately. I would guess that it is more attributable to amazon. 

I'm in construction in Calgary and it seems like things are starting to improve with jobs overall. I am more in the loop than most, but less than the higher ups of course.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

There are a LOT of unnecessary workers in just about every sector. It's pretty scary... most jobs can be automated away pretty easily. A lot of white collar jobs basically involve copying the contents of one spreadsheet to another, or moving data from one place to another place with minor changes. Then there's all those middle managers who basically add zero value.

I know of an entire group (maybe 100 people) at a mutual fund company who I can basically automate away with a couple scripts; might take me 6 months of work to automate away all 100 jobs. All they do is transcribe market data into spreadsheets and check the calculations. Indeed, a lot of jobs in finance are very vulnerable.

It doesn't make me happy, but the modern obsession in the corporate world *is* cost cutting. A lot of jobs will be lost in coming years and I don't see any way this would change. I suppose the positive side of it is that we can all sit at home, unemployed, and blissfully watch stocks go up due to their cost cutting.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Getting rid of minimum wage would create a lot of jobs. The goverment often talks about wanting to create jobs yet they wont let people work if thet dont meet a certain standard of pay. Why should the goverment be allowed to stop people from working that want to work ?


----------



## rikk (May 28, 2012)

zylon said:


> Layoffs of any size always make the news, whereas new hires - not so much. Still, I can't help but notice what looks like a trend happening with layoffs, and yet there's lots of optimism to go around. Don't know what to make of it ... just something to keep in mind.


Layoffs are perceived as a good thing thing by investors and such news tends to up the stock price I think is what you're saying ... now I don't have evidence on hand but it seems to me maybe a year or so ago I'd see now and then on the back pages or in employee newsletters, items like ... Bank of Whatever has over the past 3 years rehired 2000 persons. Perhaps rehiring is downplayed because there's no perceived benefit for the publicly traded.


----------



## financialnoob (Feb 26, 2011)

lonewolf said:


> Getting rid of minimum wage would create a lot of jobs. The goverment often talks about wanting to create jobs yet they wont let people work if thet dont meet a certain standard of pay. Why should the goverment be allowed to stop people from working that want to work ?


Most people couldn't sustain themselves on minimum wage anyways. Most minimum wagers don't even get to work full-time to avoid any potential benefits associated with that status, but assuming they did, they'd still only make around $21K.

Getting rid of minimum wage may create more job opportunities, but they'd be terrible ones, and unsustainable. People have no money so they can't buy stuff so companies need to charge less to make sales so they need to cut on employee costs so people have no money so they can't buy stuff...

I'm sorry, but if your business model requires needing to pay slave wages because paying a poor wage is too much, then there's something wrong with the model. In 1980, CEOs at the S&P 500 made 42 times what the average employee did. In 2010, they make 343 times what the average employee does.

But the problem is the minimum wage...


----------



## 44545 (Feb 14, 2012)

It's all noise.

There have _always_ been doom and gloom predictions.

Ignore the noise and carry on.

To the folks who ask "what if it is different this time?" ... your only other option is to stock up on non-perishable food and go live in the woods. (I much prefer central heat)

http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/15/try-to-focus-on-your-personal-economy/


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

financialnoob said:


> Most people couldn't sustain themselves on minimum wage anyways. Most minimum wagers don't even get to work full-time to avoid any potential benefits associated with that status, but assuming they did, they'd still only make around $21K.
> 
> Getting rid of minimum wage may create more job opportunities, but they'd be terrible ones, and unsustainable. People have no money so they can't buy stuff so companies need to charge less to make sales so they need to cut on employee costs so people have no money so they can't buy stuff...
> 
> ...


Then you really can't complain when jobs are automated....


----------



## financialnoob (Feb 26, 2011)

andrewf said:


> Then you really can't complain when jobs are automated....


There's something to be said about efficiency. At the same time, I'd argue that automation isn't always the best solution. Several US grocery stores have gone the other way and removed their USCAN machines because customers are struggling with them and leading to larger lines. 

All I'm saying is removing a minimum wage isn't going to solve the problem, nor do I think it's even part of the solution. If a human being is required to perform a task, paying a minimum wage that isn't even a livable wage isn't the biggest impediment to filling that role if it's necessary.


----------



## hystat (Jun 18, 2010)

our college program is getting calls routinely looking for graduates. It seems things are on the upswing in Canada from my perspective. 

doesn't Sears lay off a few hundred every February? You can't have all the Christmas help standing around through Jan/Feb.
Best Buy and FS probably still do a healthy online business.

Shania Twain thing probably has more to do with a decrease in her popularity than economics.


----------



## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

I'm with jcgd on this one.

Every example is 'case-specific'. The only one I would be remotely concerned about is CP, although they didn't 'optimize' much during the last recession so there are probably lots of inefficiencies for them to work out. Company is still continuing to grow top and bottom lines which supports my view.

If Encana or Suncor start laying workings off, then I'd start to worry.


----------



## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Good feed-back everyone; thanks.



rikk said:


> Layoffs are perceived as a good thing thing by investors and such news tends to up the stock price I think is what you're saying ...


Yes, layoffs if done prudently, are considered to be positive for the company's bottom line. What I'm getting at is that the markets seem to be rising on hot air even though it seems that some cracks are appearing. This is the 3rd time in 12 years that I've had the urge to sell everything; didn't do it before and lived to regret it; although I admit that I would have been a year early each time before. I know, I know, belguy says you can't time the market. :hopelessness:

Here in AB it isn't easy to find someone negative on the economy, unless listening to a PC politician making excuses. The lack of awareness that nothing goes straight-line up forever, is a caution light for me.



Sampson said:


> If Encana or Suncor start laying workings off, then I'd start to worry.


True enough; I've been watching for news of layoffs there since last summer. So far, so good.


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

You're right Zylon, everyone here thinks this is the land of God and the only way to go is up. Working in construction, the Black Fridays of layoffs in 2010 are still fresh in my mind. Every Friday we would lose a handful of guys. Nothing better than wondering when your number will come up. I luckily got through unscathed but I don't think most people saw it coming. Anyone in their 30's had only ever seen an economy where you could pick and choose where you wanted to work, and how much you wanted to make. I came out from Nova Scotia and what I had seen was different. Finally a chance to work, instead of being on EI half the year. I think my appreciation for actually having a job is what kept me in mine. I wasn't willing to quit at lunch and walk across the street for an extra dollar an hour like many of the guys. I don't jump ship every time I get a job I don't like or every time I have a disagreement with my boss. I just hunker down and get 'er done.

The look of confusion on the younger guys' faces (like me) when I lean over to an older gent in the lunch room and ask how things were during the crash in the 80s... priceless. Young'ns have never seen it, so they don't believe it.

Market timing... I'm not sure I'm a believer in timing the top by selling out. What I think currently makes the most sense to me is buy the dips as I have money available as if the market will only rise, because I don't know when it will stop rising. At the same time, I want to have a fat LOC wide open and ready to dump into the market if there are any large crashes. You can't time the bottom either, but buying 15%, 25%, 35% lower than recent prices seems like a no brainer to me. I'm just not going to hold a bunch of cash unless I simply can't find anything of value.


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

financialnoob said:


> Several US grocery stores have gone the other way and removed their USCAN machines because customers are struggling with them and leading to larger lines.


Must be the neighborhood. In West Van, the USCAN lineups are always shorter and the process is faster, even for vegetables and other weighed items. At Home Depot, it is substantially faster. Maybe it is because we self-select when we have a simple checkout.


----------



## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

jcgd said:


> You're right Zylon, everyone here thinks this is the land of God and the only way to go is up.


A lot of the oldsters seem to have forgotten that there's a "boom-bust" cycle; some like myself remember, and it's made us cautious ... perhaps too cautious.

And it's the rare youngster who can learn by OPE (other people's errors); most have to experience it for themselves.

I recall when this bumper sticker could be seen everywhere.


----------



## Pennypincher (Dec 3, 2012)

Taqa North is laying off around 50 employees as well. 

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Taqa+North+lays+employees/7883518/story.html


----------



## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

http://www.mining.com/owners-of-nun...g-130204&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digest

*Owners of Nunavut's first and only diamond mine nowhere to be found*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-p0zn3PijY
Jerry Reed -- She Got The Goldmine (I Got The Shaft)


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Interesting..........the two related links posted on the article...........Nunavut a diamond "powerhouse" and Shear collecting 3500 carats of diamonds from the site.

Something doesn't compute.

Hopefully, companies are forced to post a bond to help clean up sites.............before they begin operations...........just in case they disappear.


----------



## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Suncor*



> Voyageur Prospects
> 
> Suncor plans to delay development of its Fort Hills oil-sands project north of Fort McMurray in Alberta and was still evaluating costs for the planned Voyageur upgrader project, Williams said in November.
> 
> ...


http://business.financialpost.com/2...ap-oil-hits-voyageur-project/?__lsa=6393-25d5


----------



## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Quote:* Statistics Canada reports the nation’s employers cut *21,900* jobs in January, as both the public and private sectors
posted layoffs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate eased slightly to 7% from 7.1% in December – its lowest level
since December 2008 – as fewer people were recorded looking for work. Citing the weakening outlook for the Canadian
housing and export markets, Merrill Lynch economist Joshua Dennerlein noted: “I definitely think Canada is going
to experience some economic softening during 2013.”

Source: LongwaveGroup.com - _The Week That Was, February 4 – February 8, 2013_
Registration (free) may be required.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

I would like to know how Canada had so many construction jobs created in December.

Everyone I know in outside construction is laid off until the spring.

I think we are getting pretty fuzzy statistics on everything from employment to the cost of living.


----------



## 44545 (Feb 14, 2012)

sags said:


> I would like to know how Canada had so many construction jobs created in December.
> 
> Everyone I know in outside construction is laid off until the spring.
> 
> I think we are getting pretty fuzzy statistics on everything from employment to the cost of living.


I work a dozen stories up in an office building. On a low building next to mine, there have been construction workers on the roof replacing the tar paper and top covering for the past few weeks. Clearly _some_ construction work is happening in winter.


----------



## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

sags said:


> I would like to know how Canada had so many construction jobs created in December.
> 
> Everyone I know in outside construction is laid off until the spring.
> 
> I think we are getting pretty fuzzy statistics on everything from employment to the cost of living.


Or your anecdotes are just that. How many workers do you know? Across how many constructions fields? In how many cities across Canada? time and time again, it is clear that individual cities/provinces can shift the mean numbers to +/-.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

The increase in new jobs (all sectors) was reported at 40,000 in December, with 18.000 new jobs in construction.

But........the hours worked for December didn't change and the number of people working in construction was the same as it was in 12 months earlier.

Then the January numbers come out there was a loss of 22,000 jobs overall.

The CMHC reported new housing starts down significantly to 2009 levels.

These jobs numbers just don't add up.


----------



## Murph (Sep 9, 2009)

CJOttawa said:


> It's all noise.
> 
> There have _always_ been doom and gloom predictions.
> 
> ...


Totally agree, don't forget to buy some gold, ammo, and head to the woods :biggrin:


----------

