# Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (TSE: ONC)



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I just thought I'd introduce this company to the board as one of the rare successful Canadian biotechnology stocks. Interestingly, I actually am one degree of separation from the graduate student at the University of Calgary who first found the results of introducing this Reo virus into a mouse with a brain tumour and found the resolution of the tumour on followup scans. Initially his supervisor didn't believe the results and made him do it over about 3 times before he believed it was true and sought to figure out how it works.

Basically the idea is you introduce a virus into a patient. This virus enters cells and then tries to divide. Most native cells with appropriate biochemical pathways working will not allow the virus to replicate and the virus will do no damage. However, in certain cancer cells that have altered biochemistry dealing with certain genetic pathways (called constitutively activated RAS pathway) the virus' replication cannot be stopped and this will lead to death of the cell eventually. It turns out that many cancers and tumours have this defect and can potentially be amenable to this treatment. This company set out and found a form of this virus that they wanted to use and found a commercial way to make it in large quantities for use in injectable form (usually IV or directly into the tumour) - their product is called Reolysin and it is produced by Sigma Aldrich. They are ready to produce this virus in massive quantities once they have regulatory approval to do. Until then they produce the virus for use in clinical trials.

So a company was developed to pursue the commercialization of this virus and its use in oncology. They have frequently set up clinical trials in which they are used as an adjunct to standard treatment which is often a form of chemotherapy. They are mostly in the developmental stage and have completed about six phase I studies and are now in the middle of several phase 2 studies and even one phase 3 study. As a reminder, phase one studies are done to determine the safety of the medication. In phase 2, you are often looking at different doses and searching for evidence of efficacy. Phase 3 is where you usually go ahead with a large trial to prove the treatment is effective compared to placebo or current standard of care. 

Now they haven't even completed about 4 or 5 phase 2 study but no phase 3 studies yet but there is a lot of evidence from the trials being done that the product is actually useful. It has primarily been targeted so far at people whose disease has not responded to standard care and has shown some benefit. As the treatment ages and the authorities are more comfortable with the long-term safety of the virus treatment it will probably begin to be used earlier in the course of the disease.

The amazing thing to me about this treatment is the number of different types of tumours and cancers it can potentially treat and the fact that the side effects have been so minimal (which is what one would expect theoretically) thus far. They have completed or are currently studying it in brain gliomas, head & neck cancer, pancreatic cancer, colon cancer, breast cancer, Non small-cell lung cancer, prostate cancer, multiple myeloma, ovarian cancer, pediatric solid tumours, metastatic melanoma and metastatic sarcoma. According to the company's website they are involved in studies of 6 of the top 10 cancers in men and 5 of the top 10 in women.

So their potential market in the end is huge. This is especially true if they can eventually win approval to be a first-line treatment in these conditions as there is little reason to expect it to work worse in less virulent forms of cancer so long as they have a constitutively activated RAS pathway. The other great thing about this treatment is that it is a very small intervention - a few intravenous injections or a few direct tumour injections which could be radiologically guided in some manner. The other thing about this treatment that I love is the side effect profile is basically a self-limited common cold. The third thing that I love about this treatment is that it should be very inexpensive compared to standard medical care right now with the gigantic surgeries, the extensive radiotherapy, the toxic chemotherapy which often leads to immunosuppression and life-threatening infections or organ failure.

The company was just in the news again with promising results in initial studies of non-small cell lung cancer and they are presently pursuing phase 2 study.

Right now the company is still pretty small with a market capitalization of $300M but if they start getting regulatory approval for treatment for some of these conditions their potential is really high given the number or cancers it may be effective against. I don't know how much each of these injections would end up costing but I would think $300 to $1000 would be reasonable. The cost of ongoing manufacturing of the virus should be very small so the margins should be very high. The other thing is so far the USA has been giving biologics very long-term patents compred to drugs so they may end up having a monopoly here for a very long time. Any competitor would have to go through all those tests against Reolysin with uncertain outcomes. So they could be deriving monopoly like returns on this product for 30 years.

For those who are interested here is a presentation made for healthcare investors:

http://oncolytics.s3.amazonaws.com/presentations/34/original.pdf?1340293191

Here is the company's website which has lots of interesting information on their product and the clinical studies they have completed:

http://www.oncolyticsbiotech.com/

Any of you guys follow this company or have any thoughts about it?

Disclosure: I am long about 500 shares and am trying to buy on dips.


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

Now you are talking.

I agree, an excellent Calgary Biotech company and my personal belief is that oncolytic viruses are the most likely to eventually succeed as a cancer therapeutic.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

thanks for telling us about this interesting company


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

No problem, guys.

I think now may be a good time to invest because there are good results on a number of phase two studies and they are into their first phase 3 study for head and neck cancers. The thing about head and neck cancers is the surgeries can be disfiguring. Many of them can be insensitive to chemo or chemo often has major side effects and adverse reactions. Radiotherapy to this area of the body can have horrific long-term implications including future cancers. I remember treating one patient who had aggressive salivary gland cancer treated with radiation and totally lost all ability to produce saliva - needed to use artificial moisteners all day long to deal with the parched mouth feeling. I am now treating one fellow who developed a horrible mass in his shoulder from the radiotherapy. I have seen several patients over the years who likely had radiotherapy induced damage to the carotid artery that later caused stroke. So the implications of a less invasive treatment for this group of cancers can be huge for the patients.

It has been my understanding that the time when such biotechs rapidly appreciate is when they are about to get approval for treatment. With the phase 3 study now initiated and with about 6 years of safety data now available that show minimal issues as expected (you're basically giving someone a common cold) I think this stock could be poised to have major gains. The phase 2 study suggested about 42-50% response rate compared to 6.7%-10% for chemotherapy and combination chemotherapy but the numbers treated were only 41 patients in total for the phase two study. So we have a treatment with good efficacy and very low side effects so I think they have a very good chance at winning their first approval. 

So my feeling is that now is probably a good time to buy for those who are interested in this company. However, everyone needs to be really careful because there are no revenues and no earnings to fall back upon for valuation. This is basically a one product company which also makes it risky. Their pipeline is the studies they can pursue in different cancers at different stages of the disease. But first they must get approval to treat something. I think the study will be complete by the end of 2013 as they finished the first 80 patients in March and then were going to decide how many more patients to enrol for the rest of the study but they believed 100 is the most likely number and then they will need some time to analyze. The thing about this condition is that median survival is only about 4 months for these patients with chemotherapy so the results


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

no message - accidentally double posted my last reply.


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

Getting approval isn't without it's major hurdles though.

While delivery is straight-forward, toxicity effects low, and specificity towards tumors vs. normal tissue high - no one has yet been able to demonstrate a consistent and sustained delivery of an oncolytic virus, whether it be reovirus, adenovirus, Vaccinia, Newcastle disease virus etc. The problem is that our immune system, is very effective at attacking and destroying these viruses and it remains unknown if treatments can fully eliminate the tumor before the immune system destroys the therapeutic agent.

Your warning about these types of companies really should be considered carefully because as you point out, these companies have no earnings, and can easily burn through capital in a single year or two. Operating costs to perform the research are simply excessively high, both in terms of keeping highly trained and educated staff, and all the equipment necessary to do the basic work/experiments.

While I am _very_ familiar with this type of research I am a very reluctant investor. It is essentially a gamble and all the background work the company can do seems to play a very small role in whether the innovation or technique eventually gets approval. It is cutting edge stuff and in research, 19 out of 20 ideas simply don't pan out. Reward is obviously there though.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

This is fundamentally a one product company with no other pipeline. If the viral oncolytics don't work then it is game over for them.

I kind of view them as an adjuvant therapy company. They are one more thing to throw at the malignancy to see if we can clear all of it, even the microscopic bits of it lodged somewhere. If traditional therapy can be 95% effective at reducing the tumour, can this come along and take care of the last little bit.

The reason why I like it so much is the specificity of the treatment for the malignancies compared to normal tissues and the lack of side effects. It it can offer a bit of help than that is worth a lot.

For example, if they can improve median survival for 4.5 months to about 8 months in these head and neck patients as was suggested by the phase 2 studies that would be a very good outcome. I know it may not seem like much but when you can get four extra months that is a fairly big deal to patients who have things to resolve in their lives.

You just have to look to Dendreon and their product Provenge which may have improved survival in the subgroup of patients with prostate cancer 2 months that they treated and at the cost of about $70K for treatment with 3 major interventions involved and they still got approval for their immunotherapy based treatment because the side effect profile was so benign. When viewed in that context I am pretty sure they'll get approval if the phase 3 study replicates the results from the phase 2 study. Then I think they would go on to try and treat early stage head and neck cancers as the next phase of treatment - perhaps hitting the cancers earlier will result in better survival and there will be less of a pool of patients to treat with resistant cancers.

But as you mentioned, if they don't get a positive result from the phase 3 trial and/or don't get approval the stock will take a beating. Luckily they do have a pipeline of multiple ongoing studies for different types of cancers but they don't really have any other treatments to offer. 

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for them - it would be a great achievement for Canadian medicine and biotech if they can get it done. I wouldn't mind profiting as a shareholder either.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

PMREdmonton said:


> 1. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for them
> 2. it would be a great achievement for Canadian medicine and biotech if they can get it done.
> 3. I wouldn't mind profiting as a shareholder either.


Ditto x 3!

And yes, a great achievement it would be! It will take me some time to read the completed/ongoing/announced trials, but I'll definitely keep my eye on it & glad that's also listed on the NASDAQ.

Thanks for bringing company to our attention PMREdmonton.


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## arc (May 19, 2012)

this company is a true gamble but the real hope is a buyout before they launch the drug


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I agree that it is still speculative with no approvals yet and no phase 3 studies completed, but:

1. It has been involved in studies going back to 2006.
2. They have completed about 10 studies thus far with no negative trials yet.
3. There have not been any major adverse events or side effects or organ toxicity yet.
4. The threshold for approval will be low so long as side effects remain low
5. This will be a very high margin business due to monopoly from patents and lack of competitors.
6. The US has been granting very long patents to biologic based therapies thus far compared to medication-based therapies.
7. Even though they only have one product, it is theoretically active against many of the most common cancers/tumours which creates a huge number of avenues to study. Even getting one approval to one of the more common cancers (melanoma, breast, colorectal, prostate, head&neck) could be hugely profitable for many years at estimated profit of say $1000 per patient treated (remember likely 80-90% gross margins).

So I agree it is speculative but the potential revenues generated in the best case scenario are truly immense.

I do agree that at some point they will likely be bought out at a large premium once they get deeper into their approval cycle. The main question will be how much their market cap is and how big of a premium someone will pay for it.

They may also do it in multiple stages by selling the product for each indication separately as licences. So they could sell it to say Pfizer to treat head & neck tumours for $1B. Then they can use the cash to keep doing studies for other indications and leverage that capital as they go after the true homeruns - prostate, breast and colorectal.

I really like their potential and the sell-off ongoing in the TSX and small-caps is really doing those of us who are bullish in the company a big favor by offering up the stock cheap right now.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Also think about it from the patient side of things - would you pay $1000 for 4 extra months to live just by getting a common cold (extrapolating from the head & neck phase 2 trials but n=41 only)? For those who want to go onto chemo I think the obvious answer is the small risk is probably worth it.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

First positive result in a phase 3 trial now established for Reolysin for Head and Neck Tumours that are platinum refractory in combination with carboplatin and paclitaxel. This is an early result at six weeks but nevertheless was significant at the 95% level in favor of the treatment arm with 86% of patients exhibiting stable disease or decrease in tumour size compared to 67% in controls.

The main points to consider in this investment on the positive side are:
1. The virus has activity against many of the most common cancers. There is a large pipeline of ongoing phase I-III studies ongoing and many of these studies are funded by government so are not much of a cash drain on the company as is typical of most junior biotechs.
2. The virus causes minimal side effects.
3. This may mean the bar to get FDA approval may be very low.
4. There is potential for huge gross margins on this product as costs for production are low.
5. There is potential for recurrent income stream with this treatment as some patients may require ongoing booster shots (to be determined).

On the downside, they have only one product so if some unknown side effect pops up later that makes the product toxic, the company is basically done. However, this risk would seem to be small as basically it is a purified form of a common cold causing virus. Thus far it hasn't caused much more than a common cold and local discomfort at the injection site.

There was a huge spike on this one yesterday after the announcement going from around 2.10 up to about 3.55 as investors immediately poured in to buy this one after the initial analysis came out.

Here is the news release:

http://www.oncolyticsbiotech.com/news_items/details?press_release_id=1916

The other big plus to me is this is a made in Canada story based on a discovery from my Alma Mater, University of Calgary.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

ONC showing some legs again today.

Always remember that a stock with a lot of negativity can rise for several quarters after a positive surprise. Many had counted them out after they revised their phase 3 study for head and neck cancers and indicated it seemed to be working better in metastatic than local disease.

Just remember the bar will be low for approval because of its benign side effect profile (common cold basically) and it should have very high gross margins. There is also the possibility of recurrent income streams if patients need ongoing booster shots. The other thing to consider is these guys have gotten a lot of government funding for their studies so there hasn't been a lot of stock dilution for financing. If they get Reolysin approved for H+N cancers they can generate some cash flow to go after even bigger game and expand their indications as it has activity against many very common cancers.

If you bought at lows it may make sense to take some profits now but this one definitely could be a huge buyout candidate from one of the big biotech or pharmacy companies who could then properly fund this company to get its product out there.

Again, very risky company, no revenue, no FDA approvals yets. Their only positive result in phase 3 is a 6-week result only on size of tumour.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

hey doc your pals at ONCY passing you some stock options to flog again ?

plus patients in edmonton must be quaint. Here in eastern canada we don't have doKtors w itchy thumbs.

nobody wants a gurney to come off an ambulance after a serious accident & the ER doc keeps thumbing option trades & quotes to his broker the whole time he is supposed to be assessing the vital stats


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Blah, blah, blah....


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

New newsreport on a very early study on colorectal cancer. This is a top 3 killer of both men and women so being able to treat this condition will be a huge deal. This study is looking at metastatic colorectal cancer (the vaccine seems to work better, relatively speaking, in metastatic disease):

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...rointestinal-cancers-symposium-188642661.html

The stock has been on a huge run after early reports of Phase 3 study on head and neck cancers where it looked like it was working well in metastatic disease but still uncertain results for those without metastatic disease. It now has climbed a bit more after this study but we all need to keep in mind this was a Phase 1 study that focuses more on dosing and does not have a placebo controlled arm.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Popped 33% today on findings of a Phase I study in colorectal cancer. This is the #2 cancer killer in the Western world. Imagine how far this thing could go on a Phase III study somewhere down the line.

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-2013-Gastrointestinal-Cancers-Symposium.aspx


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I'll just add this thing just keeps churning positive study after positive study. No clinical toxicity of significance. The hurdle for FDA approval is going to be exceedingly low. Clinicians are not going to hesitate to use it because what could it hurt to give it a try. Insurers will come under pressure to fund it because it may work and it causes virtually no harm.

They still have a long runway of multiple cancers for which their product may be effective against. It'll settle down early next week and probably afford a chance to hop on in the low 4.xx's. Don't chase it if you're interested right now - just look at the stock chart to see how it behaves after an announcement.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

I have known about this company for years ever since I saw a tiny article on them in the newspaper (I believe the calgary herald). By chance, I was looking at them in depth yesterday and decided that I was going to invest in the shares today. I woke up, did not have time to make a market order today, and just checked and the stock is up 22% today. Wow. Looks like I may have missed the boat on this one and I am kicking myself for that because even if I got in at the open, I still would have seen a 10% appreciation.

It looks like the stock generally performs very well after positive news, and investors generally take profits, reducing the price a few months after. Do you think this stock is going anywhere below $4 in the medium term?


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I think there is definitely a chance that this one will trade back into the 3.xx's before its next leg up. People choose to lock in profits on these speculative biotechs and not look back especially if they have had a major leg down as this one did after initial disappointing results in their Head and Neck cancer trial where they split them into two arms - metastatic versus non-metastatic and noting better results in the metastatic arm.

The thing about these guys is they have multiple avenues to pursue in terms of cancers it may be active against. They can also ramp up studies very quickly now that they have a better idea of dosing and toxicity from all the previous trials. The last thing is they won't need hugely impressive results to gain approval for their medication because of its low toxicity profile.

But, yes, I think there is a chance to catch this one on a pullback from present prices. My only point is if they are successful this is a 5-bagger type investment potential return from present valuations. While the recent run has been impressive they did their last financing at 4.25.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I forgot this tidbit. There is another announcement in an early phase study against Squamous Cell Lung cancer (one of the more common lung cancer types) that found that 95% of patients demonstrated overall tumour shrinkage.

http://www.cantechletter.com/2013/0...after-reolysin-trial-proves-95-effective0208/

The thing that makes this story so remarkable to me is you take the same low toxicity treatment and then you just keep finding new uses for it for different cancers at different stages. You end up with probably 95% gross margins on each patient treated. I imagine cost to grow a batch of virus is quite small and everyone is used to paying through the nose for cancer treatments so the price won't be set according to cost to manufacture but will be valued against the cost of the alternative treatments. Then on the patient/physician side of things they aren't going to see much downside to taking a few harmless virus shots with very little toxicity if it means adding several months of life without progression of your cancer. Just look at the prices they are charging on Dendreon's prostate treatment.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

PMREdmonton said:


> I forgot this tidbit. There is another announcement in an early phase study against Squamous Cell Lung cancer (one of the more common lung cancer types) that found that 95% of patients demonstrated overall tumour shrinkage.
> 
> http://www.cantechletter.com/2013/0...after-reolysin-trial-proves-95-effective0208/
> 
> The thing that makes this story so remarkable to me is you take the same low toxicity treatment and then you just keep finding new uses for it for different cancers at different stages. You end up with probably 95% gross margins on each patient treated. I imagine cost to grow a batch of virus is quite small and everyone is used to paying through the nose for cancer treatments so the price won't be set according to cost to manufacture but will be valued against the cost of the alternative treatments. Then on the patient/physician side of things they aren't going to see much downside to taking a few harmless virus shots with very little toxicity if it means adding several months of life without progression of your cancer. Just look at the prices they are charging on Dendreon's prostate treatment.


keep me updated with info, this is one of the stocks I have been and will continue to watch for a while.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Sitting at 3.99 today. The next support line is @ approx. $3.50. Debating if I should get in in the future or wait until it goes down a little more. $4.00 definitely does seem a little expensive for a company with no earnings albeit this is a great story that I have been following for quite some time.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

nakedput said:


> $4.00 definitely does seem a little expensive for a company with no earnings albeit this is a great story that *I have been following for quite some time*.


If you're interested in the stock & have been following for quite some time, what kept you from buying at 1/2 price just a little over 2 months ago, when it was trading at $2?


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> If you're interested in the stock & have been following for quite some time, what kept you from buying at 1/2 price just a little over 2 months ago, when it was trading at $2?


that is why i like this very fine lady.
straight like an arrow.
by the way FWIW this things do not show me support resistance levels ddo they?
and u say that i trade too volatile things?:biggrin::encouragement:


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> If you're interested in the stock & have been following for quite some time, what kept you from buying at 1/2 price just a little over 2 months ago, when it was trading at $2?


Because life happens, people get busy, I had other things to do, etc. Not sure why you even cared enough to post in this thread but whatever.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

The share price really only fell because they took advantage of the recent strength in the share price to get a private placement done to ensure they had enough cash for operations for the next 2 years. Having cash in the bank to fund ongoing clinical studies and R&D is vitally important to these pre-revenue biotechs. They often like to strike on share price strength because investors are ebullient and willing to open up their wallets.

So their offered at 4.00 while the share price was actually 4.75. What happens is hedge funds immediately short the stock and then cover by buying in the private placement to hedge their position and this immediately drops the price down to the private placement price. You could see that even after the big drop investors didn't seem to panic and the stock price was up the next day which speaks for the psychology of the street right now for this stock's future prospects.

The thing that people keep underestimating with this stock is that the incredible benefits they have in getting studies done and quickly advancing to FDA approval because their product has already been through numerous phase I and II studies without evidence of toxicity. 

Just recently they have come out with some positive results in non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer which are two huge potential markets for the drug compared to their one positive phase 3 interim result for metastatic head and neck cancer. They also recently signed some sort of agreement with a Russian biofund company to invest in the company for the purpose of doing some cancer investigations and treatments in Russia.

If you believe the story on this one the stock price is very favorable for an entry - they have had 3 recent positive results and now have stocked up on cash for another year of studies without having to dilute existing shareholders much.

Of course, the future is unknown and this is a pre-revenue company that will be worth nothing if their one product does not get an FDA approval so consider this part of your speculative portfolio.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

nakedput said:


> Because life happens, people get busy, I had other things to do, etc. Not sure why you even cared enough to post in this thread but whatever.


I was just curious that if you were contemplating buying at present time and/or near future, why not @ $2, where it was just a couple of months ago? Simple question/simple answer, thank you.

I also wanted to hi-lite, not for you necessarily, but in general, that the stock had jumped 100% in a very short period of time, which is important when considering taking a position in this type of stock.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> I was just curious that if you were contemplating buying at present time and/or near future, why not @ $2, where it was just a couple of months ago? Simple question/simple answer, thank you.
> 
> I also wanted to hi-lite, not for you necessarily, but in general, that the stock had jumped 100% in a very short period of time, which is important when considering taking a position in this type of stock.


Definitely a good observation but the potential for this company is astronomical. It would be a shame to miss out on a decent entry point because of a "this stock looks expensive based on a big jump" point of view. Still debating whether I should put a grand or two in this stock but I think I am going to wait it out and see if the stock depreciates to a level I am more comfortable with.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

PMREdmonton said:


> 1. The thing that people keep underestimating with this stock is that the incredible benefits they have in getting studies done and quickly advancing to FDA approval because their product has already been through numerous phase I and II studies without evidence of toxicity.
> 
> 2. Of course, the future is unknown and this is a pre-revenue company that will be worth nothing if their one product does not get an FDA approval so consider this part of your speculative portfolio.


*1.* Yes, numerous studies are done, but they last years, so there is no quick FDA approval. The ongoing clinical trial for patients with Squamous Cell Lung cancer, currently in Phase II, started this phase in late 09 [not sure when it started in *pre*-clinical stages], and if it advances to Phase III, it could take another while before we get to read the final report. Also, successful Phase I & II studies, do not translate into success in Phase III. That is where stocks can dive more than 70% in a matter of hours. Just look at CLSN for example, on Jan.30th, the stock was $8; the day after it closed at $1.50 after it was announced that Phase III studies of hepatocellular carcinoma [liver cancer] had failed. Today the stock is trading at $1.01.

The FDA's Drug Review Process: Ensuring Drugs Are Safe and Effective

http://www.fda.gov/drugs/resourcesforyou/consumers/ucm143534.htm

*2.* Exactly, so for those that are not experienced investors, or are new to this sector [you're a doctor, but most here are not], it's better you start in the 'jelly beans' stage, because by the time an experimental drug gets to it last Phase III, the stock could have increased dramatically. 

Any cancer drug approval = a great story. Cancer is the leading cause of death in men/women in Canada and in the US; heart disease is 2nd, followed by stroke.

List below was revised last July:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/hlth36a-eng.htm

*As per the CDN Cancer Society:*

- Lung, prostate, breast and colorectal cancer are the 4 most common cancer types (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) in Canada and account for over 50% of all new cancer cases.

- Lung cancer accounts for over a quarter (27%) of all cancer deaths each year.

- Breast cancer accounts for over a quarter (28%) of new cancer cases in women.

- Prostate cancer accounts for over a quarter (27%) of new cancer cases in men.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

nakedput said:


> Definitely a good observation but the potential for this company is astronomical.


So long as you're aware that the opposite could be the result.

Consider what the potential upcoming results of REO 018 - Phase III & REO-021 in Phase II could be.

One or both could be successful, or could disappoint, in which case you know how the stock would react.

I am not trying to influence you either way, I'm just writing for others that might be reading.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

toronto.gal may i present username "taltell" on yahoo finance to you.

a gentleman not worthy of you, but nevertheless he is part of the picture. A medical insider & endlessly wordy fanatic on the subject of ONC/ONCY, with close to 1,800 fervent yahoo message board pumps since 2008 - all admirable, some even comprehensible - to his credit.

http://finance.yahoo.com/mb/ONCY/#m...-faf4-32c2-ac72-50d6974c15cb&mbtc=mb-tab-user


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> I'm just writing for others that might be reading.



...and thanks for this


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Your points are well-taken T-gal.

I just meant to highlight how this company is different than other biotechs with a rich pipeline of upcoming drugs that they want to move forward with.

1. They don't have to go out and find any new drugs. This is a one drug company.

2. They can quickly advance studies because they know a lot about dosing from their numerous other studies.

3. They don't really have to worry much about toxicity because the product has already been used a lot without any evidence of major toxicity.

4. Many promising drugs in phase I and phase II studies will fail in their bids for approval because drug benefits don't outweigh toxicity concerns. This is a very low risk issue for this company. If they show any benefit to standard of care they stand a very good chance of getting approval.

5. Most of their focus right now is in metastatic disease. Once cancer has advanced to this stage you usually don't have to prove much benefit for the treatment to be approved because this is a group of people that are usually going to die (in most cancers anyways).

The big risk is they have no revenue and only one product. If something does happen to it they go belly up. There is no tomorrow.

I don't know anything about the future price action of the drug. However, each time a study comes up with a positive result it makes the company worth a bit more. The further along the phase of the trial, the bigger the bump the stock gets. I don't know if it'll test 3.00 again but I'd be buying again at that price point. If there is another negative result before they gain a full FDA approval that would be the time to get a shot at getting it on pessimism. That is what sunk the stock earlier this year when the company split up their phase 3 study into a metastatic and non-metastatic arm because they were detecting an unusual phenomena in the metastatic arm of the trial. Others panicked but I thought it validated the beneficial effects of the drug in metastatic disease which I view as its true future but I was viewing it as a positive (there was an arm where there is going to be significant benefit) and other people took it as a negative that the drug may not work as well in non-metastatic disease. However, for a company like this it is much more important to find an indication and win an approval then it is for them to find a trend to better results that doesn't reach significance involving a larger patient population.

Anyhow, this is a very speculative pre-revenue company so buyer beware. They could be worth 0.00 tomorrow if a bad toxicity is found.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

nakedput said:


> It would be a shame to miss out on a decent entry point because of a *"this stock looks expensive based on a big jump" point of view.*


Yes, IMHO, a big jump in price = expensive.

And what is a 'decent entry point' in your opinion? If the quick jump of 100% did not much matter to you since you wrote this post, and assuming you had bought then, you would be down -25% in less than a month, or -12.5% if you bought at the 'next 'support line'.

I had not been debating the potential of the drug candidate, nor did I suggest you run to the hills because the stock had been overbought, just simply reminding of the potential danger of taking positions soon after a stock doubled in price.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

PMREdmonton said:


> 1. The big risk is they have *no revenue and only one product.*
> 2. I don't know if it'll test 3.00 again.....


1. And that's exactly why any negative news can make the stock price collapse. But yes, even with the one drug, the company has a rich pipeline with various ongoing clinical trials. 

2. It did, falling from almost $5 last month, to barely above $3 today [I think it fell below that on the US side].


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> Yes, IMHO, a big jump in price = expensive.
> 
> And what is a 'decent entry point' in your opinion? If the quick jump of 100% did not much matter to you since you wrote this post, and assuming you had bought then, you would be down -25% in less than a month, or -12.5% if you bought at the 'next 'support line'.
> 
> I had not been debating the potential of the drug candidate, nor did I suggest you run to the hills because the stock had been overbought, just simply reminding of the potential danger of taking positions soon after a stock doubled in price.


great call on investor psychology, I'm glad I didn't buy but it is a stock I am looking into now.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Attractive entry price right now compared to just 4 weeks ago. 

However, last time there was negative sentiment after a quasi-negative interpretation of an interim result in their phase 3 study of head and neck cancers they dropped all the way down to 1.70.

Then after positive results from the same trial a few months later they launched from around 2.00 all the way up to 4.75 in about 8 weeks (also had some positive early phase 2 results from non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer) only to fall back down again after a private placement to raise $32M operating funds for the next year. The management let the shorts get control of this one again but at least they got 12 months of operational cash in hand before doing so. This upsets the shareholders but I look at it as a chance to accumulate again. I sold a bit on the last rise but maintained all of my core position. 

Based on how deep the last fall in SP was I wonder if I won't be able to get some around 2.50. The rapid rise on hitting 2.90 makes me wonder if it wasn't short covering. Sometimes this just sets things up for a fresh set of shorts who can take advantage in the lull before reporting of the full results of the phase 3 study in H + N cancers which will probably be some time later this year. With the shorts in control of this small cap I definitely think there can be a ton of volatility that could give rise to a better entry point. I think I got some around 2.00 last October but I doubt it sinks that low again without a negative study result. Right now I'm pretty positive there is going to be a positive result in the metastatic arm of the trial and am unsure about whether they will get a positive result on local regional cancer without metastasis due to the lower expression of kRAS.

Regardless, the key to this stock is getting approval for an indication in metastatic disease. Once they have an indication in metastatic disease and FDA approval there may be a significant amount of demand for off-label use in metastatic disease with other primary sources that could lead to a substantial amount of sales. Of course, there case will be stronger by finding other indications in primary disease and their metastatic variants but just one trial opens the medication to the market to oncologists out there. So any oncologist who believes in using this medication in metastatic disease when all else is failing may have little hesitation in ordering a couple of rounds of Reolysin to see if it works (rumoured to have potential efficacy in 95-98% of metastatic cancers). This could quickly make them cash flow positive and help them avoid dilution as they expand into other indications.

But the big key is getting one positive in metastatic disease to yield FDA approval and/or European approval (European's tend to be more lenient especially for terminal diseases like metastatic cancer) to open up the market.

A lower risk but still very possible profitable strategy could be to wait for the positive phase 3 result before investing. I still think there would be upside from the announcement that would last awhile with much less risk of a failed company and worthless stock. 

Regardless, this company is very important for Canada to gain a stronger foothold in healthcare business.


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

PMREdmonton said:


> Regardless, this company is very important for Canada to gain a stronger foothold in healthcare business.


Not likely. If anything, this company will be bought out. Unless this country or province begins to invest heavily in healthcare research we are a long long long ways away from private biotech when compared to the US, France, or Switzerland.

The way recent budgets have been going, this will never happen. The problem is that there has never been a prominent Politician in Canada that has been pushing for a real biotech industry.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

That is really unfortunate.

It almost seems to me like they don't want any innovation to happen in Canada.

Many of our resources are non-renewable so we're going to have to learn to make a go of it by not just digging stuff out of the ground at some point.

Having a leading edge oncological business in Canada would be a huge boon for this country which has produced tons of great healthcare minds. We need to get our heads out of the sands and start developing our own great technological companies.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Another positive phase II study result. This one is for squamous cell lung cancer which is metastatic or recurrent. This type of cancer represents 25-30% of all lung cancers.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/113...tudy-of-reolysin-in-squamous-cell-lung-cancer


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I started a position @ $2.98.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> I started a position @ $2.98.


always nice to see my favorite gal from Toronto in on the fun 

PMRE, if you do not mind disclosing, what is your ACB on this stock?


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

nakedput said:


> always nice to see my favorite gal from Toronto in on the fun
> 
> PMRE, if you do not mind disclosing, what is your ACB on this stock?


I think I'm around 2.50. I bought first around 3.80 or so and then bought some more when it dipped below 2. I'd love for a shot to get more at 2 but it spiked pretty quickly when the initial phase III results came out for head and neck cancers.

The thing about us is we just need approval for some condition. As soon as that happens, there will probably be a bunch of off-label prescribers from oncologists treating patients with symptomatic metastatic disease. It is estimated that 95-98% of metastatic cancers should be susceptible to Reolysin. But no one can order it at all until it gets an approval for a condition.

Just think about your status as a patient with horrible metastatic disease - what it someone had a medication with very little side effects that could greatly diminish your suffering and perhaps even extend your life. I imagine there are a fair number of people who would want to give it a try and a fair amount of oncologists who would be willing to prescribe in that situation given the benign side effect profile.

This is a speculative stock but could be a big gainer if they win an approval. They will get several swings at it - lung cancer, breast cancer, head and neck, etc.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Shareholder's meeting on the 9th of May. Hopefully we hear positive news.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Another bump from yours truly. I've been averaging down and my ACB is 2.75 on this bad boy, so I'm up about 5-6% so far (meanwhile the stock has been up 20% in a few weeks). For anyone who follows this (which doesn't seem like many), we are a few days away from Q3 where this is the expected time that data will be released (ceo: "sometime in q3"). To the shareholder's on here, which may only be a few, good luck. I hope this company works out, not only for my bank account, but for oncology.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

Damn, now you got me following this one. With my CLC gone, I am left without a healthcare stock. This one looks juicy. No dividend though.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

favelle75 said:


> Damn, now you got me following this one. With my CLC gone, I am left without a healthcare stock. This one looks juicy. No dividend though.


the stock can go to zero if the results are not statistically singnificant, but I think its worth a small investment.


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## Smoothie (Jul 11, 2011)

Interesting. I've been looking for a biotech stock, thanks for highlighting this.

There's one study on clinicaltrials.gov that has primary endpoints completed but not reported. I cannot imagine therefore that there was good news from that study...that was in metastatic melanoma, which is a tough nut to crack see http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT00651157

That being said it's aiming at the right targets: pancreatic, colon, lung, and prostate, after metastases. I'm a family doc with about 2K patients on my roster. 3-5 of them could benefit from this drug if it works. 

Gonna buy a small position tomorrow!


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

Smoothie said:


> Interesting. I've been looking for a biotech stock, thanks for highlighting this.
> 
> There's one study on clinicaltrials.gov that has primary endpoints completed but not reported. I cannot imagine therefore that there was good news from that study...that was in metastatic melanoma, which is a tough nut to crack see http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT00651157
> 
> ...


Thanks for the insight smoothie...I'm in for a small spot tomorrow as well.


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## Smoothie (Jul 11, 2011)

In at $2.88, small position.

I hear there's a great roller coaster at Wonderland these days. Anyone tried it?


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## Smoothie (Jul 11, 2011)

Studies on Reolysin and similar at clinicaltrials.gov: http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=Reovirus&Search=Search


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Smoothie said:


> Studies on Reolysin and similar at clinicaltrials.gov: http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=Reovirus&Search=Search


The real kicker is the p3 h and n coming out in the next 3 months. Because the trial was changed as oncy noticed reo was more effective on metastatic cancers the market has acted accordingly and hammered the price. Take a look at the short interest on oncy on the nasdaq and it gives me the impression that the price will skyrocket ig p3 results are statistically significant. Look at what happened with onxx last week when the shorts got clobbered.

Dont mind a small investment in the company because I have done my DD and realize that the potential is incredible. There are a lot of things that tell me that this company will work out but also a few that tell me they may not. I guess time will tell


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

If I can add a few more things...

-Acuity Investment Mgmt(10 bn fund) owns a significant amount of shares. In fact, ONC is in the top 8 of total holdings within Acuity Investment Mgmt. Pretty significant considering the companies that come before ONC are RBC, CIBC, Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor, etc (only large caps)
-363 patents 
-many trials are co sponsored by National Cancer Institutes of America & Canada. I have a hard time thinking that these institutes would throw money after a product/drug with a high potential to fail. This has happened before though, so there still is some downside risk
-it is significantly easier to gain approval in EU than it is in North America. ONCY's plan is to gain approval in Europe first.
-Cash until end of 2014
-Pfizer wanted to partner in 2000 to use Reo in its animal care division. Everything was set up and ready to go but at the last minute, Pfizer rescinded the offer b/c they were making a big acquisition and decided to drop the animal care market as it was not very profitable

A few things I don't like or make me question the company...
-high salary of CEO
-mgmt seems very, very cautious. This has caused them to miss timelines, change the p3 h&N trial, and investors have not liked this. Simply put, the company has not been very condusive to shareholders but at the same time, the dillution of shares that is expected of biotechs has not occured as much with ONCY.
-minimal promotion. Use some of the cash to hire an IR firm that promotes the company. No one knows about this company and the only reason I do, is because I got lucky and read a tiny article in the calgary herald. 
-if there is so much potential within the company, other than pfizer, why haven't we heard much about partners?


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

P2 results today boosted the stock roughly 12% as of writing (it was up around 18% a few hours ago when I checked). With a stock like this, its always a good thing when you see a decent bump in the SP. Overall, the results were pretty incredible...92% of patients reduced tumour shrinkage, with the majority of the shrinkage being between 40-60% shrinkage. A link to the waterfall graph can be found here: http://oncolytics.s3.amazonaws.com/presentations/52/original.pdf?1378723793

Just to let you all know, the P3 H&N trials should be out in the few weeks according to the CEO Mr. Thompson. Hopefully, the results are good.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Patience is virtue, eh?. 

Wanted to post also, but then I figured I would be talking to myself.

Let's hope for the best & thanks for the update!


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> Patience is virtue, eh?.
> 
> Wanted to post also, but then I figured I would be talking to myself.
> 
> Let's hope for the best & thanks for the update!


Definitely, T.Gal. There's been a few times where I have been just repeating myself but I hope to get the company a little exposure. It's nice to see positive news and it reinforces the possibility that there is, at the very least, potential of this company. This is the type of company to trade as it seems the shares are heavily manipulated (mainly do the downside), but what is the point of that. If this company works out to its most optimistic scenario, the results could be incredible.

As mentioned, it's nice to see some great news, and i look forward to the next few weeks when p3 results are (expected) to surface. This is speculating on my part, but he has several speaking engagements announced today in the next few weeks, and I highly doubt he would be speaking at all these conferences, if the p3 results are going to be garbage. My guess is they have already processed/analyzed the results, and they are going to be positive. But this is just speculation, and I should probably be ignroed 

One thing to be wary of...this p3 trial was split into 2 trials...so this trial result coming up is not the kicker...the next trial is. So even if results ARE good...don't get too excited.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

nakedput said:


> 1. Definitely, T.Gal.
> 2. when p3 results are (expected) to surface.... highly doubt he would be speaking at all these conferences, if the p3 results are going to be garbage.


*1.* This forum, understandably, has almost zero interest in this type of stocks. I find many [pipelines] so interesting, even when not necessarily investing in them.

*2.* The 92% result in phase II, was very encouraging & impressive indeed, especially as patients tested were in stage IV, but let's keep in mind that that rate had been the overall result, that if broken in individual categories, they were 8%/40%/52%.

Those conferences are pretty standard [keep in mind what the presentation goals are].

Anyway, we should be optimistic [for treatment is sought for a variety of cancer types], but also prepared for the worst as it's now in the final survival/safety data phase. 

I started my position just below $3, which was $1.95 below the 52 week high, and later on, managed to further average it down to the mid $2's, so I have given myself a good margin safety [I hope].

I'm currently also excited about another biotech that I picked up just this summer, that has allergies/asthma in pre-clinical/and hematological cancers in clinical studies, that also recently received FDA Orphan Drug Status.

Btw, do you know the meaning of lytics? [onco=cancer] So let's hope the success for the company [and us], will be an explosive one!
http://www.medterms.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=4229


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* This forum, understandably, has almost zero interest in this type of stocks. I find many [pipelines] so interesting, even when not necessarily investing in them.
> 
> *2.* The 92% result in phase II, was very encouraging & impressive indeed, especially as patients tested were in stage IV, but let's keep in mind that that rate had been the overall result, that if broken in individual categories, they were 8%/40%/52%.
> 
> ...


I agree that the speaking events are all marketing-based for the company, but as Brad has said that data is due to come out within the month, I have a seriously hard time thinking that he will go and speak at these events, then results come out, and the company/stock is decimated to the lowly 0's. I think, at the very least, results will be 'okay', even if they are not statistically significant (p = .05). 

If you don't mind, I'd like to hear about the new biotech co you are excited about. It would be nice to see a thread on the co, or you can pm me 
I think my ACB is roughly around $2.75 so while I am ecstatic that I haven't lost any money on the investment, I am fully aware that these biotechs are risky. For every 1 biotech company that does well (eg., DNDN), 100 make big promises, and eventually go to zero. Let's hope for the best. We are about 15 trading days away from very important information.


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

I've been watch this company for along time. I even had shares when it spike to ~$4.50. I was stupid not to sell but at the time l opened l just opened my investor account for the first time. I wanted to keep the share but had to sell in spring when my account became under margined. Anyways l kept it on my watch list and l want to buy back in. I got too caught up in tech ( which im doing fine ), but l can appreciate some diversity more than ever. 

I a bit of a gambling man now and my instincts say go for. I want to drop 1000 shares ( spread between four 250 share buys ) and watch from the sidelines. What chance do you think i'll have to get in around ~$2.75 ( ~$2.50 even better ). I noticed a huge pullback. I was going to buy friday but was busy. Oh well, does anyone think this will keep crashing back down, or is this the lowest it's likely to go?

I just want some opinions. I also think this stock could explode into a nice piece of my retirement


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

dragenn said:


> I've been watch this company for along time. I even had shares when it spike to ~$4.50. I was stupid not to sell but at the time l opened l just opened my investor account for the first time. I wanted to keep the share but had to sell in spring when my account became under margined. Anyways l kept it on my watch list and l want to buy back in. I got too caught up in tech ( which im doing fine ), but l can appreciate some diversity more than ever.
> 
> I a bit of a gambling man now and my instincts say go for. I want to drop 1000 shares ( spread between four 250 share buys ) and watch from the sidelines. What chance do you think i'll have to get in around ~$2.75 ( ~$2.50 even better ). I noticed a huge pullback. I was going to buy friday but was busy. Oh well, does anyone think this will keep crashing back down, or is this the lowest it's likely to go?
> 
> I just want some opinions. I also think this stock could explode into a nice piece of my retirement



:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:

i'm convinced that toronto.gal is the only serious investor this company has ever had


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
> 
> i'm convinced that toronto.gal is the only serious investor this company has ever had


Thats a pretty stupid thing to say but judging off some of ur posts in this forum it isnt abnormal.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

one indelible characteristic shared by all the illegal stock pumps is that they instantly turn verbally abusive, tch each:


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

go to the yahoo discussion board if you want to take a look at a bunch of idiots pumping and dumping. I tell of the good and bad with this company.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

dragenn said:


> 1. I even had shares when it spike to ~$4.50. I was stupid not to sell
> 2. I got too caught up in tech ( which im doing fine ), but l can appreciate some diversity more than ever.
> 3. I noticed a huge pullback. I was going to buy friday but was busy.


*1.* I hope it wasn't a too expensive lesson for you. 

*2. *Diversity with biotech? That's how you minimize risk? :chuncky: 

*3.* What pullback are you referring to, from Monday? This drop is not surprising considering the + data this week. The stock however, was as low as $2.26 just 3 months ago.

If you're going to start with 250 sh, no need to over-think it if you're following the stock.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

this company either pumps or dumps. There is really no in between. I wouldn't be too picky on the price as of now, because if the company does well the price should/will be a hell of a lot higher then the price currently. If this is a vehicle you are looking to trade, it may be a wise move to get in as soon as you can....they will most likely pursue a secondary offering in the future, and mgmt will devote much effort to increasing the share price.


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* I hope it wasn't a too expensive lesson for you.
> 
> *2. *Diversity with biotech? That's how you minimize risk? :chuncky:
> 
> ...



1. Only lost $100 when l bought @ $4 sold @ ~$3. I kept it as a small reminder to not just buy on a whim, and don't be afraid of profits.

2. I've moved into green renewable energy, some gold. I'm just sick of the whole tech sector getting ripped down as a whole. When l invest, im happy to hold for years. I also chase big payouts

3. At the time. I was locked up mostly NOK + BBRY ( after earnings ). I had no ability to buy. Now l've noticed it's on lot more people radar and l have enough profits to start a more robust portfolio.


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## MikeT (Feb 16, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> Btw, do you know the meaning of lytics? [onco=cancer]


Comes from the word "lysis" meaning to destroy. So Cancer Destroyers essentially. I also have a small position.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

MikeT said:


> Comes from the word "lysis" meaning to destroy. So Cancer Destroyers essentially. I also have a small position.


It had not been a quiz, and had already posted the definition upthread Mike. I'm always having to refer to dictionaries in this sector, hence I continue to expand my vocabulary. 

*dragenn:* I'm glad you didn't lose much. And definitely don't be afraid to book profits, especially in this sector, when any lil neg. news can send the price right into the basement. Have a good position sizing strategy, and maximize gains, not losses. 

I hope that you stayed locked into NOK though, at least until MSFT moved in!


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> It had not been a quiz, and had already posted the definition upthread Mike. I'm always having to refer to dictionaries in this sector, hence I continue to expand my vocabulary.


The problem is that the majority of the important information is undecipherable using a dictionary. The original post is basic verbatim from Oncolytics website description of the mechanism by which this particular oncolytic virus works. Problem is, who knows what Ras is anyway? And even if you do, how is activation of this pathway more/less likely to result in a treatment? And, how does this compare to other oncolytic viruses?

As a biotech aside, the real breakthroughs will come from gene 'editing' and repair. Many cancers result from a single mutation in a gene and tools are now becoming available tat can fix those mistakes.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I obviously wasn't suggesting that a dictionary was all one would need to understand the huge scientific complexity that exists in this sector. But I know more about RAS now than I ever did before reading medical dictionaries. 

No doubt a lot is undecipherable, but I have surprised myself what a key word can open up in one's understanding of things. Without a medical dictionary, no need to be in this sector at all, as then you would be lost completely IMO.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

For anyone who cares, most likely myself, Toronto.Gal, the thread creator, and one or two others, below is a nice link about the potential use of reovirus as vet therapy:

http://tinyurl.com/k3p8ppe


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> I obviously wasn't suggesting that a dictionary was all one would need to understand the huge scientific complexity that exists in this sector. But I know more about RAS now than I ever did before reading medical dictionaries.


I sort of wonder sometimes about the sector and even analysts covering the sector, how useful any of the information really is. The truth is that most of the ideas that reach this phase has as much if not more promise than the therapies from Oncolytics but aside from the success and failures of the actual drug trials, is there anything else to be 'foreseen' about a technology or company. No earnings or other traditional metrics to go by.

As far as understanding the mechanism of the therapy, perhaps I'm biased, and realistically, understanding how it works is really of no relevance.


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## Celso (Jun 5, 2012)

It's down a bit in the last few days. Any specific reason? 
Maybe time to take advantage of the drop.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

nakedput said:


> For anyone who cares, most likely myself, Toronto.Gal, the thread creator, and one or two others, below is a nice link about the potential use of reovirus as vet therapy



it appears the thread creator was busted


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## Celso (Jun 5, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> it appears the thread creator was busted


Que ?Would you care to elaborate just a wee bit?


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

interesting destruction of shareholder value leading to the biggest announcement from the company ever. I've seen this before, so I'm not getting too nervous, but it is a little disheartening. There definitely isn't a ton of confidence in this company, or the powers that be love to keep the price down.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

^ You should be feeling better today.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> ^ You should be feeling better today.


up 17% today on Oct1/13 news that wasn't really real news or the H&N kicker. Let's see how the next couple of days go with respect to the share price, but I see continued appreciation going forward.

Toronto.gal, are you on the V2 board by any chance?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

nakedput said:


> Toronto.gal, are you on the V2 board by any chance?


No, I'm not. R U inviting me? 

Patience is virtue; up another 13%. All my biotechs were up big this week. :encouragement:


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## MRT (Apr 8, 2013)

down ~23% today...death knell?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1211...tech-shades-truth-on-failed-cancer-study.html


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Conclusive negative top-line data would have resulted in a stock drop of at least 50%, so it seems that investors were dissecting the results, not knowing which way to turn.

Key concern seems to be the incomplete data regarding the OS rates. 

Also the ITT [intent to treat] should indeed include all randomized patients. Sometimes there are patients that elect to end their participation before the end of the trial, and even this poses a problem for analyses.

'Thirty of the 118 patients in the loco-regional group received at least one therapy with other agents after study therapy was discontinued.'
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/126...ed-study-of-reolysin-in-head-and-neck-cancers

There has been pretty insignificant momentum build up with this stock for some time.

Cautious investors would have taken some action before Q3 earlier this month.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

not sure where to go from here with this company. The CEO does a great job of making good/okay results look terrible. I remember on the day of the P3 announcement, the stock was up 23%, and after the the CEO got talking, the stock ended up down ~25%. Get this guy out of there.


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## bds (Aug 13, 2013)

Anyone still have this? Up 41% today: http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/148...nation-from-the-u-s-fda-for-pancreatic-cancer

What are people's thoughts?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

These biotechs are like junior mining stocks - swinging for the fences. Purely speculative but if one likes to gamble some play money, by all means. 

DW has a few shares and is way underwater so far. So she is just letting it ride, either to zero or perhaps to some outrageous possibility of getting into the green in the distant future..


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## bds (Aug 13, 2013)

I have 450 shares. In a rush before leaving for vacation I typed "50" into the sell amount instead of 500 back in 2013. Then it declined from $3 to $0.50. I hold this as a reminder.


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