# Recession



## peterboro31 (May 11, 2010)

What Does Growth Recession Mean?
An expression coined by economists to describe an economy that is growing at such a slow pace that more jobs are being lost than are being added. The lack of job creation makes it "feel" as if the economy is in a recession, even though the economy is still advancing. 
Investopedia explains Growth Recession
Many economists believe that between 2002 and 2003, the United States' economy was in a growth recession. In fact, at several points over the past 25 years the U.S. economy is said to have experienced a growth recession. That is, in spite of gains in real GDP, job growth was either non-existent or was being destroyed at a faster rate than new jobs were being added. 

Sherri Cooper of BMO, on TV today, was asked if there would be a double dip recession; she said no; but there would be a growth recession.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

There _would_ be a growth recession? As far as I'm concerned, we are already _in_ a growth recession.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i think growth-recession is stag-flations cousin ....

you are going backward and forward at the same time ..


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

I've been paying close attention at the minute to the ISM index.

Look at the chart provided by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NAPMPMI:IND

It doesn't look good with the recent results at 50.9 with below 50 being negative growth. New orders is already in negative territory. 

Overlay a couple of indicies to the ISM and it becomes even more scary. 
To make the charts interesting look at it over a 5 year time frame. 

To add an index it's

DJI:IND
UKX:IND
SPTSX60:IND
SPX:IND


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

There is not a heck of a lot of economic optimism out there in the world at the present time. I would be very surprised if we avoid another recession--if indeed we ever really recovered much from the previous one!!


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

peterboro31 said:


> What Does Growth Recession Mean?


Since companies are continuously investing in capital equipment to improve productivity (do more with the same people ...or less people) and the workers themselves are continuously improvising and improving their work efforts, it is believed that an economy needs growth above 2% to grow the number of jobs. In other words, companies can sell 2% more stuff, each year, without hiring at all.

So when they are saying we are in a growth recession they are talking about GDP growth between 0% to 2% growth. The economy will grow but workers will not see more jobs, improving opportunites or above average growth in pay. It will feel like we are in recession, with one caviet ... the corporations will still be making good money and growing those profits quite nicely.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Everywhere you drive you see road and bridge construction that you just wouldn't have seen in the good times.

Secondary bridges on secondary roads, see 2 bridges removed on 401 Bowmanville and Oshawa. Lots secondary roads being redone.

This is all stimulus money being spent. And it makes me wonder what is the true economy were will be be when all these projects dry up.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

We have a $100 billion infrastructure deficit. There is still plenty of infrastructure work that could be done.


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## abcxyz (May 30, 2011)

i for one think everyone should step back from their computers and tv for a week and relax. all this in your face doom and gloom bs is great for ratings but not the psyche. society are like Lemmings we will follow what were told. 

the sun will rise tomorrow and enjoy your time here....


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

ABC you might be right for me this where the fun begins. What am I buying how much and how many times. Hoping 3-4 months answers nothing.

See we got the dead cat bounce going today.


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## calrest (Apr 13, 2011)

Me too! I cannot see any optimistic future for this North American market. On the other hand, potential dangers for canadian economy aren´t "big" as in USA. I assume "american dream" coming to the own finish. Unfortunately, the recession will be mainly negative points for us. Do you know what it presents the US debt? The US debt is over $14 trillion, and it is the sum of all debt owed by the Federal Government. Almost two-thirds is public debt, which is owed to the people, businesses, and foreign governments who bought treasury bills, notes, and bonds. It´s a tragedy of their politics. Many economical analytists have some important questions What? Why? And What If…? http://calgaryrealestate.ca/calgary-real-estate/2011/08/us-debt-questions/ 
I would like to believe the positive end, but I am realistic man. The following period will be very important for USA and Europe and of course global market. 



Belguy said:


> There is not a heck of a lot of economic optimism out there in the world at the present time. I would be very surprised if we avoid another recession--if indeed we ever really recovered much from the previous one!!


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

There just doens't really seem to be any optimism out there. The optism we have seen has been fueled by money which doesn't exist. History has shown us what happens when money runs out yet we are trying to fund a recovery by doing the same thing. 

Despite the fundamentals of the companies I think people are companies are going to scare themselves into another recession. Any growth will be very slow. reduced earning forecasts will be announced and for the time being I see stocks will contiue to decline. 
There are some very good buying opportunities out there but for the time being I just can't see any sustainable rally on the horizon. 

My own 2p.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

Im in the construction industry(surprisingly its been good and steady)im sure new builds are going to slow and there will be a softening,im in the parires.

Does anybody feel a softening close to home in your own line of work?

-a recession is when there is a lot of unemployment_
_a depression is when YOUR out of work_


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

There hasn't really been anything except printed money being thrown out to keep the party going in the last 2 years. It is either borrow to insanity or cut back spending which is not a recipe for strong growth. No the beast is dying and coming up for air when it can but it will die. If the Fed had just let everything go under in 2008 and allowed the debt to wash away we would be past this whole mess already.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

donald said:


> Im in the construction industry(surprisingly its been good and steady)im sure new builds are going to slow and there will be a softening,im in the parires.
> 
> Does anybody feel a softening close to home in your own line of work?
> 
> ...


I'm retired 2 years from the construction industry in Alberta. My ex partners recently picked up almost 60 million worth of work in 1 week which 2 years ago represented our total yearly sales.

There is insufficient manpower available in Northern Alberta to fill the opportunities...

I think we are on the cusp of another boom.


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## cannon_fodder (Apr 3, 2009)

Personally I get more worried when the vast opinion is thinking that there is nothing wrong. When people are afraid and can only see negativity then this marks a point where I see opportunity. 

I feel that I'll have much better returns 2 years from now when the sky is falling rather than when there aren't any clouds on the horizon. 

It's almost tragic that when a recession hits it's often devastating for the people who can least survive it while presenting golden opportunities for those with access to a great deal of capital. Whether it's buying beaten down stocks or distressed real estate times like this can provide greater separation between the haves and have nots. 

To me this supports the idea that you do everything you can to invest in yourself and live well below your means. The sooner you can achieve financial independence the easier it is to insulate yourself, and even profit, from challenges such as this.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

This recession, unlike previous ones, seems to have created different classes of people. This ranges all the way from those who have lost their homes and their jobs and have been unemployed for many months at one end of the scale to those who have been completely unaffected and whose lives have not really been impacted at all. Often, we seem to be talking everything from boom to bust!

In most previous recessions, just about everybody shared in the misery to one degree or another.


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## calrest (Apr 13, 2011)

The recession is still in progress, mainly in EU. What are sources of this cause? Simply answer-Italy! Let´s go to check a few details:
- slowly economical rising 
- lost confident on the stock markets
- Italian real estate stock is still weak
- the fifth highest debt in the world
- its government deficit is 5.1 per cent of its GD
and many negative factors

What will be the following impact to the Eurozone? Personally, it should be a catastrophical reality.


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