# Money Sense 2014 Top 200



## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

I am looking to put about $3000 into one Oil & Gas stock to hold for about 7-10 years. Won't need the money however if a profit does arise at some oint ghen some profit taking would be done. Hete is a list of the Oil & Gas picks from their list, only looking for 1 stock in this sector to add inside my TFSA. Opinions most welcome, after some resaerch this weekend the Top 2 that look like a solid choice would be CNQ or SU. Was not able to research all on this list. Thanks for any input, most appreciated.

CNQ
SU
COS
ARC
BTE
BNP
CVE
CPG
ERF
ESI
HSE
LTS
MEG
PTI
PWT
PMG
SES
TLM
VET

Theses are all the Oils & Gas ones on this years list.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

I think you are way too early. I don't think we have seen the bottom in oil prices. I would wait for the price to bottom out and then stabilize. No idea when it's going to happen. Mid 2015? Early 2016? Plenty of time to do the research.


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

Agree with GoldStone, wait at least another 2 weeks for tax loss selling

SU and CNQ are big names, with smaller debt and smaller dividend, so they will be able to handle the lower oil prices much better than the other players.

I own suncor now down 8% or so and 52% on LRE , but I am also looking to add in this field in the next month, I'm hoping BTE cuts its dividend, everyone panics and I can jump in on that one  but I think it's unlikely most of these names will cut the dividend... wait and see!


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

imho SU, CNQ, HSE in Canada and CVX, XOM, maybe COP - won't cut dividedns, but will be increasing by less %


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

gibor said:


> imho SU, CNQ, HSE in Canada and CVX, XOM, maybe COP - won't cut dividedns, but will be increasing by less %


Agreed. I suspect big oil can weather this storm, which is just beginning.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Does money sense top 200 have a good track record


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

lonewolf said:


> Does money sense top 200 have a good track record


17.3% average return over 10 years. That's assuming you buy only the all-stars, keep them for a year, then replace them with the next batch of all-stars.


Side note to OP:

The Oil & Gas companies that you listed made the Top 200 cut based on their revenue. That's just the starting point for all-star stock screening. No O&G company made the all-star list this year.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Thanks Goldstone 
Be interesting to see if the new technology takes off of synthesizing petroleum based fuels from water & carbon dioxide. The price of oil might have been taken high enough for the new technology to take over from the old way of getting energy.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

GoldStone said:


> *17.3% average return over 10 years. That's assuming you buy only the all-stars, keep them for a year, then replace them with the next batch of all-stars.
> *
> 
> Side note to OP:
> ...


Impressive average, but with the timing issue of their selections and publication etc the results of course would be different. Most likely not to the positive. 

Good point on the O&G companies.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

GoldStone said:


> 17.3% average return over 10 years. That's assuming you buy only the all-stars, keep them for a year, then replace them with the next batch of all-stars.
> 
> 
> Side note to OP:
> ...


Thanks, missed that when reading on their website. I will wait until another $10-$15 drop per barrel where it likely stablize, and review again.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

RBull said:


> Impressive average, but with the timing issue of their selections and publication etc the results of course would be different. Most likely not to the positive.


The timing changes year to year. It depends on the market direction between the screening date and the publication date. But you are right that, on average, the publication delay is detrimental.

This year's timing could not be worse. As I mentioned in another thread, they ran the screen in mid-October, close to the bottom of the V-shaped correction.


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

newfoundlander61 said:


> Thanks, missed that when reading on their website. I will wait until another $10-$15 drop per barrel where it likely stablize, and review again.


I just dont think it will drop below 60$. Could be wrong, but I cant see it going below 60$.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Same. I don't see oil going below $60.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

My Own Advisor said:


> Same. I don't see oil going below $60.


neither do i but in truth i am basing that prediction more on hope than knowledge ..

this story is behind the globe and mail pay wall but i will just give a quote:



> Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. chairman Murray Edwards believes the West Texas Intermedia crude oil benchmark price could fall to $30 (U.S.) per barrel.


the chairman of cnq says its going to 30 ... and he, unlike the rest of us, should actually know what he's talking about ... in theory anyway

the same story says that he thinks it'll bounce back to 70-75


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

fatcat said:


> the chairman of cnq says its going to 30 ... and he, unlike the rest of us, should actually know what he's talking about ... in theory anyway


He is saying this when the price is already around $65.
So, did he see this coming when the price was $110?
Or, when it was $80?

If yes, what steps did he take to protect his company?
If not, how can we trust his prediction this time around?


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I am finding a BIG issue with this strategy is the timing of when Norm screens the picks and when moneysense actually releases them. His stock picks had already beat XIC by about 1-2% when they were released online Nov 13. The screen was done Oct 20 or 22.


Now factor in if you held the batch from the year before, I need to calculate the performance between holding the old batch between Oct 20 and Nov 13 as they waited to be rolled into the new batch. I don't recall it being good, MRE collapsed and few others sputtered. 

It would be interesting to know how much this gap affects the actual returns every year, since you can't get the picks on the day Norm does the screen.


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