# Infections surges and upcoming election, how will US manage this



## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

First, let's get the facts. We read the news saying there are new surges without giving some analysis.

Here's my *sources* for the facts I'm about to talk : United States Coronavirus: 2,425,855 Cases and 123,520 Deaths - Worldometer and IHME | COVID-19 Projections
I'll use the *7-day moving average* and daily new cases. I'm rounding all values.

Infections in the US : United States Coronavirus: 2,425,855 Cases and 123,520 Deaths - Worldometer

*Quick summary : Cases peaked, then decelerated and now accelerated back in the last two weeks*
Daily new cases were more than 1 000 starting March 18
Daily new cases *peaked* at *32 000 on April 10 *_(after increasing about +1 500 each day during about 20 days)_
Daily new cases steadily *decelerated* to about *21 000 on June 9* _(decreasing about -160 each day during about 60 days)_
Daily new cases *accelerated back* to *31 000 on June 23*_ (increasing about +700 each day during about 15 days)_
_Yes, US did a good job from April to the beginning of June_
_Yes, US lost control in June_
Infections in California : California Coronavirus: 190,848 Cases and 5,635 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer

*Quick summary : Cases were always accelerating and accelerated even more in the last 3 days*
Daily new cases were *steady* to about *1 200* *during the first 3 weeks of April* _(steady during about 20 days)_
Daily new cases *kept increasing* from *1 400 on April 21* to *3 500 on June 20 *_(increasing about +35 each day during about 60 days)_
Daily new cases *accelerated* to more than *4 500 on June 23 *_(increasing about +350 each day during about 3 days)_
_No, California was never under control_
_Yes, cases accelerated in the last 3 days_
Infections in Texas : Texas Coronavirus: 125,015 Cases and 2,251 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer

*Quick summary : New cases were kept steady, then increased in June and even more in the last week*
Daily new cases were *ranging from 800 to 1 200 from April 10 to May 31* _(steady during about 50 days)_
Daily new cases *increased* from *1 200 on May 31 to 2 000 on June 15*_ (increasing about +50 each day during about 15 days)_
Daily new cases *accelerated* from *2 000 on June 15 to 4 200 on June 23*_ (increasing about +275 each day during about 8 days)_
_Yes, Texas was under control until June_
_Yes, Texas starting losing control in June_
_Yes, cases are accelerating in the last two weeks_
Infections in Arizona : Arizona Coronavirus: 58,179 Cases and 1,384 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer

*Quick summary : Cases were always accelerating slowly, then accelerated even more in June and in the last week*
Daily new cases were kept *below 400 until May 29*, but *increasing*_ (increasing about +5 each day during about 80 days)_
Daily new cases *increased* from *400 on May 29 to 1 300 on June 15*_ (increasing about +55 each day during about 15 days)_
Daily new cases *accelerated* from *1 300 on June 15 to 2 700 on June 23*_ (increasing about +175 each day during about 8 days)_
_No, Arizona was never not fully under control_
_Yes, Arizona lost control in June_
_Yes, cases are accelerating in the last two weeks_
Infections in Florida : Florida Coronavirus: 103,503 Cases and 3,240 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer

*Quick summary : Cases peaked, then decelerated and now accelerated back during June*
Daily new cases *peaked* at *1 100 on April 7 *_(after increasing about +65 each day during about 20 days)_
Daily new cases steadily *decreased* to about *600 on May 1* _(decreasing about -20 each day during about 25 days)_
Daily new cases were *ranging from 600 to 750 from May 1 to June 1*_ (steady during about 30 days)_
Daily new cases *increased* from *725 on June 1 to 3 300 on June 23*_ (increasing about +110 each day during about 20 days)_
_Yes, Florida was doing a good job until May_
_Florida showed signs of weakness in May_
_Yes, Florida cases are accelerating in June_
*Now please wait!* _Is it because there are more tests?_ IHME | COVID-19 Projections

On April 1, there were about 120 000 tests that day for about 30 000 cases, which is 1 case per 4 tests, or 25%
On June 1, there were about 420 000 tests that day for about 20 000 cases, which 1 case per 21 tests, or 5%
More tests simply means better statistics to help deciding on how to act, it's a clearer view on the true number of cases
Since they were always doing more tests and yet finding less cases until recently, *yes, daily cases increased recently*
Many social distancing measures were removed around mid-May, which *may explain why daily cases increased*
US presidential elections will be on November 3, in 4 months. Economy must stay open.
People are not respecting social distancing and hygiene measures, they don't want to wear masks, stay 2 meters of each other and wash their hands for 20 seconds 10 times a day. People are not adapting, they are tired of that extra effort which is asked to them.

*What will US do?* What an interesting year!


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

I fail to see any point in your post at all. Who cares what Trump will do.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Longtimeago said:


> I fail to see any point in your post at all. Who cares what Trump will do.


Ok, well then what are *you* doing with your investments at the current moment knowing that US economy should be kept open but cases are accelerating again.

I say "US economy should be kept open" because that's my personal opinion and I also think that Trump will not close the US economy again because he is 4 months away from the elections.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrBlackhill said:


> Ok, well then what are *you* doing with your investments at the current moment knowing that US economy should be kept open but cases are accelerating again.
> 
> I say "US economy should be kept open" because that's my personal opinion and I also think that Trump will not close the US economy again because he is 4 months away from the elections.


So are you now saying that you actually wanted to post about how to manage your investments under the current pandemic? If so, why didn't you just ask that question?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Longtimeago said:


> So are you now saying that you actually wanted to post about how to manage your investments under the current pandemic? If so, why didn't you just ask that question?


I don't want advice about managing my investments. I'm curious about how other people sees the current situation. I want a discussion and a share of opinions, that's why I posted a thread.

I want to know what you think should be done. If you were in charge of this pandemic situation, how would you react? Instead of US, take Canada then. Canada's daily cases are decreasing, how would you react to the government's actions if ever the daily cases starts moving up during the next month? Would you want to close the economy? Would you put even more efforts on social distancing measures and trying to raise people awareness about those measures?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

It's an open discussion where you talk about whatever you want that is related to your reaction to the pandemic situation with the news of new daily increases.

There was nothing to talk about when the new daily cases were steady or decreasing. People were relieved and hopeful.

But now there are countries (US for instance) where new daily cases are starting to increase again. It's a new phase of how we are trying to manage the pandemic. There are new decisions to take in a new context.


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## JohnTobbs (Jun 24, 2020)

Infections surges sure need to be decreased. Less dense crowds need to be created. Staying 2 meters away from each other is a good idea. The pandemic is appearing to shift from large urban centres like New York City and Chicago toward smaller, rural areas. States that have loosened virus restrictions have certainly seen resurgences in cases. Good luck with decreasing virus cases in North America.









Parts of USA: Record spikes in new coronavirus cases


New Coronavirus Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations in record numbers appeared through more USA states, including Florida and Texas. The...




www.igorbnews.com


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

Every large city with a subway system being used to transport a successful economy around a city is bankrupt.
Los Angeles subways are operating at 30 percent capacity.
Nobody wants to "Squeeze" into a subway car.

The status quo (PayCheck Protection and Government Operations) is costing a minimum of 2 trillion dollars per month.

There is no cure. No Herd Immunity.
Best case scenario (In North America) is that they create a vaccine in 12 months and then another 12 months to organize and stick a needle in 400 million human armpits.

Best case scenario is 2 years and printing another 25 Trillion dollars.

At the moment the U.S. Federal Deficit is 25 Trillion dollars.
It took 40 years to accumulate the 25T debt and now it will double within 2 years.

If You Were To Count To 1 Trillion It Would Take You 31,709.79 years.

China and Russia may create a gold backed currency.

50 million unemployed in America.

There are 50 million Americans who once enjoyed the American Dream and now to have lost it.
They are angry, resentful and are acting out against authority.

Martial Law needs to be introduced.
Trump can not implement curfews because half the country would laugh and refuse to obey.
Trump only has 45% support.
The new president elected in November must have close to 60 percent support in order to have the military on the streets.
The new president needs to prance the world stage with Martial Law being imposed upon American streets and he can only do this if he can claim legitimacy with a very large majority of votes cast.
It will be said that the newly elected president has the mandate to "Govern".
The media is manufacturing the voter consent for this right now.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I predict that the day after the election Covid disappears from the news. It won't get mentioned again and will be forgotten. But between now and then will be used to scare voters away from the polls.


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I predict that the day after the election Covid disappears from the news.


.
Iff a vaccine turns up by Christmas, people will say that it was a plot.
People will claim that they had the vaccine sitting on a shelf somewhere.

Some people see value in a U.S. Greenback even though they are printing trillions of dollars and loaning it at Zero Percent Interest. How can there be any value when it is being given away free?

Must be the same kind of trust that is needed to believe that the virus is real.

Could be tense


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Scaring voters away from the polls is a tactic that favours GOP (turnout is bad for republicans). Not sure I follow the conspiracy theory.

You think the rest of the world is hiding under their bed just because orange man bad?


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

Trump claims that he wants to cut back on test/trace.

What he really is saying is that he wants the testing to be carried out by private firms snd thus the methods and the data collection is not Public Knowlege and not subject to FOIA.

He even cancelled FEMA testing sites today.

With private control of the testing/tracing regimes, we will be subject to mulitiple testing methods and which will never be reconciled. No central government data dump with particulars of differing methods.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

andrewf said:


> Scaring voters away from the polls is a tactic that favours GOP (turnout is bad for republicans). Not sure I follow the conspiracy theory.
> 
> You think the rest of the world is hiding under their bed just because orange man bad?


Trump Derangement Syndrome is real, you see it on the news every day.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

TDS meaning deranged Trump supporters that will defend any crazy thing he says or does, then defend the opposite next week when he contradicts himself? You're quite right.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

The US now has 124K deaths, which is about 41X the casualties of the 9/11 terrorist attack.

Remember how everyone lost their minds over terrorism? How it was super scary? This is forty one 9-11's. It's really bad.


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

james4beach said:


> The US now has 124K deaths, which is about 41X the casualties of the 9/11 terrorist attack.
> 
> Remember how everyone lost their minds over terrorism? How it was super scary? This is forty one 9-11's. It's really bad.


The US is a long way from getting this under control. Record number of cases per day are popping up in states. The country itself almost hit a new record daily total recently. It’s now the southern states turn. They learned nothing from the north eastern States.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-world-june24-1.5624885


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Money172375 said:


> The US is a long way from getting this under control. Record number of cases per day are popping up in states. The country itself almost hit a new record daily total recently. It’s now the southern states turn. They learned nothing from the north eastern States.


I think the writing is on the wall. We've got to start preparing in Canada to get hit again. There is no way there can be such major spread neighbouring us, without us being affected.

Irresponsible behaviour in parts of the US is putting our lives in danger.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Yes, I think even with only essential travel crossing the border, you would expect COVID to leak over the border through infected truck drivers. Especially as services (restaurants, hotels, etc.) are opening in Canada.


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## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

james4beach said:


> Irresponsible behaviour in parts of the US is putting our lives in danger.


 Absolutely agree What is happening in the US does effect us

Seeding the nursing homes with Covid,

quarantine the healthy, 

bogus testing, 

killing people with ventilators,

manipulation of death certificates to produce more deaths from Covid

Passing new laws so big pharma can not be held accountable for dangerous Covid vaccines, real goal reduce the population.

Media intentionally trying to scare people to death so they stay in homes

Contact tracing.


The list goes on & on.


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## Topo (Aug 31, 2019)

I doubt Trump will be willing to shut down the economy again. He has support among republicans and his base who will vote for him no matter what. 

Basically, the US and the rest of the world will have to live through it. It is survival of the fittest, unfortunately.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

andrewf said:


> TDS meaning deranged Trump supporters that will defend any crazy thing he says or does, then defend the opposite next week when he contradicts himself? You're quite right.


Latest word on the Michael Flynn case is that he has been completely exonerated. It seems the whole case against him was faked up by the FBI and the Obama administration to smear Trump. They knew the first day that he was innocent.
Simple explanation -


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Except that he pled guilty to the charges after he realized the evidence against him was too strong and he hoped for a reduced sentence.

He had top level legal counsel. Do you think they would have advised him to plead guilty if the evidence against him was weak ?

The guy is right on plea bargains, but that involves people who lack adequate legal counsel to represent them.

That isn't the case with Flynn.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Latest word on the Michael Flynn case is that he has been completely exonerated. It seems the whole case against him was faked up by the FBI and the Obama administration to smear Trump. They knew the first day that he was innocent.
> Simple explanation -


Obama was still in office in 2017/2018? News to me.

The explanation is a lay person's spin.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Many Americans are challenging any bylaws that require wearing a mask. 

They are talking all kinds of nonsense about government control, masks killing people, doctors being unqualified and doing the devils' work etc.

It is like a different world just across the border.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I rest my case.


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## alexincash (May 27, 2020)

andrewf said:


> Yes, I think even with only essential travel crossing the border, you would expect COVID to leak over the border through infected truck drivers. Especially as services (restaurants, hotels, etc.) are opening in Canada.


This is a problem that's so widely overlooked. We source so many products from the United States that it's bound to happen - somewhere someone isn't going to follow the proper safety protocols and reignite the spread


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

I think all this political "commotion" is deliberate.

The population can not handle being told that we need to hibernate for 2 solid years.
Too many would jump off balconies.

There is ZERO happening in the country.

The pretend political battles are to amuse the population and to have it appear that there is some success happening.

The population is being fed "Success" with congress passing legislation as the country continues to crumble.
They can pass laws all day and everyday ..... but the economy continues to collapse.

With Zero happening, just the agreement of political leaders to print more money is called

There are two political parties but there is only one slush fund for the Ruling Class,
They only pretend to have these exagerated differing of viewpoints and they all got their hands deep in the cookie jar.

50 million people on holidays or unemployed and Washington is talking about a July 4th holiday. Half the country is already on holidays. never you mind July 4th.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Interview with Flynn's attorney. There is no question now that he was framed and the frame up was approved at the highest level.


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Interview with Flynn's attorney.


.
This Flynn story is just too complicated for me. Just about as complicated as 9-11 and Saudi Arabia.
Just too many theories to keep track of.
So, I got no opinion on the Flynn matter.

It is suggested that Russia has an inordinate amount of influence with American elections,

American progressives and intellectuals ("Leftie Heroes") are seen and interviewed on Russia Today. (NBC, CBS, ABC don't want to interview Leftie Heroes.)

Russian media does not have a kind word about America..
Russia Today always and continually pointed out the "Flaws" and inequalities within American society.

America does the same thing with Radio Europe,
American media does not have a kind word about Russia.

Operation Mockingbird
Operation Mockingbird is an alleged large-scale program of the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that began in the early years of the Cold War and attempted to manipulate news media for propaganda purposes.
It funded student and cultural organizations and magazines as front organizations.
From Wikipedia





Operation Mockingbird - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
From Wikipedia








Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





RT (TV network)
From Wikipedia








RT (TV network) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





I think that Israel interferes in U.S. elections with AIPAC.
AIPAC had much more influence than Russia ever had.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

More fox news hyperventilation.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Well.........there is the transcript of the conversations between Flynn and the Russians.

He did plead guilty to 2 charges, and he did get fired by Trump for lying to VP Mike Pence.

But never mind all that. He probably was framed by Obama.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Try pleading guilty in court and facing sentencing and then telling the judge you have thought it over and have changed your mind.

Maybe they will give you a "do over". Kind of like a legal "mulligan." Maybe......but I doubt it.


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

Next ..... Flynn will be demanding his legal fees be paid by the government.

I sure wish that Poor Folks had all those quirks of justice and loopholes when they turned up for court.


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## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

Russia has it act together they banned bill Gates, Microsoft, Rothchild & Soros. Russia might of saved the world


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Too bad Russians are drinking themselves to death.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

https://en.mogaznews.com/World-News...-got-right-about-controlling-coronavirus.html



> When the European Union reopens its borders on July 1 after months of coronavirus restrictions, travelers from China, Uganda, Cuba and Vietnam will be welcome to visit.
> 
> But probably not those from the United States. ...


 ... ouch!!!! A fleas-infested dog no one wants except for a MAGA reality-show CEO.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Anyone interested in this thread should read Eric Reguly's Article in today's Globe and Mail (June 27th). "Forget the V-shaped recovery. Millions of Americans can't pay rent" - (behind a paywall)
Also, an article in the guardian
this quote stayed with me
“You look at the polls and think ‘he can’t win’,” tweeted Bill Kristol, who served in two Republican administrations. “But Trump’s path to victory doesn’t depend on persuading Americans. It depends on voter suppression, mass disinformation, foreign interference, and unabashed use of executive branch power to shape events, and perceptions, this fall.”​Question is: Will it work?


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

Collateralized Loan Obligation - CLO

The Looming Bank Collapse
The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.
By Frank Partnoy
July-August 2020 Issue








The Looming Bank Collapse


The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.




www.theatlantic.com





Collateralized Loan Obligation - CLO
From Wikipedia








Collateralized loan obligation - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Variable Interest Entity




__





variable interest entity - Google Search






www.google.com


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Re: Last 2 posts... I think there is a plausible scenario of a further deep dive in the US economy in the next 2-3 months with a corresponding dive in the equity markets to rival March. The inability of the American consumer to pay their bills and the likely collapse of the CLOs are ominously similar to the 2008-2009 crisis. Injecting more trillions will just keep the heartbeat going in the ICU.

The ongoing covid infection crisis in the USA will suppress the economy. Lock it down to reduce infection rates and economy deteriorates further. Let covid infections continue to run rampant (get worse) and business has to shut down operations/production lines anyway due to lack of healthy workers. Assembly line operations of all kinds, from auto to meat packing plants to service workers.


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

AltaRed said:


> I think there is a plausible scenario of a further deep dive in the US economy in the next 2-3 months with a corresponding dive in the equity markets to rival March.


.
Do you think that any large city requiring subway transportation can survive a 50 percent loss of pedestrian traffic in the center downtown core? Nobody wants to squeeze into a subway car. Passengers want some "Distancing",

How does the "City Center" survive for what might very well be a 2 year period?

Cities with less than 2 million people will be Okay. Property values will increase in the smaller cities because people will flee the larger cities.

But economic prosperity will not return to North America until the subway systems of any city can operate at 80 percent occupancy.

No country can withstand the economic damage that is now hitting all major cities in North America.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

There is a lot more to worry about than subway systems and city cores. They are just a symptom (canary) in the scheme of things. The economy is much larger than the office towers downtown, most of the activity which can be hollowed out and decentralized to suburbs and satellite areas. The bigger issue is lack of consumer spending power and inability to staff production lines.


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

Half of Branmpton Ontario get on the subway at Kipling Station to get to a job. Not now.

Half of GTA rode the subway to get to the workplace.








Greater Toronto Area - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





How is our country going to handle the financial costs of this collapse?
And double that because we got Montreal too.

Are we going to pay all those people unemployement for 2 years?

Things are so tense that the Federal Reserve is giving the fiat currency away for Zero Percent Interest.

In some cases, the Federal Reserve is paying people to take the currency.

The more money printing done by the Federal Reserve the more it becomes obvious that the Dollar has no value at all. They are just giving it away for free.

And that is when China and Russia introduce a gold backed currency.

And maybe the Amero in North America.

North American monetary union
From Wikipedia








North American monetary union - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

There are reports that Trump is considering resigning. The latest revelation that he knew Putin was bribing the Taliban to kill Americans could mean the end for him.

Right now, Biden leads in almost every State and all polls point to both a historic landslide popular vote and electoral college victory for Biden.

Trump could suffer the worst defeat in US history. That is something he would not want to live with, so he may not seek re-election to avoid it.


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

sags said:


> There are reports that Trump is considering resigning.


.
When I saw Pence wearing a mask and encouraging mask wearing yesterday, the thought entered my mind that Trump may be forced to resign.
The press hit Trump with accusations of interfering in justice and the next day with accusations that he placed American soldiers in harms way. This could result in police and military not wanting to be seen on the same stage as trump.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The Trump administration is having a hard time explaining the Putin bribes. They first claimed that Trump wasn't told, but many former top level security people, including Generals and former White House insiders say that isn't possible. The intelligence is that American soldiers were killed by Taliban to collect the bribes and every American soldier casualty is reported to Trump daily.

Trump went golfing at an usual time, given all that is going on and he golfed with Senator Lyndsey Graham, who is on Senate Security committees.

Some think Trump was seeking Graham's counsel on his possible resignation.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

It would be like him to resign rather than face a humiliating defeat. I for one hope he doesn't resign.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Despite all of the hoopla and pompom, the US death rate is dropping quite rapidly from coronavirus. When you consider that new cases are now at a record high, it is more remarkable. The death rate per case is less than 1/10 what it was just in April.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

andrewf said:


> Too bad Russians are drinking themselves to death.


While this has been true, especially in the 1990's, your information is a little dated. Alcohol consumption in Russia is down quite a bit in the last few decades. You should take a look. Much of the credit, like it or not, can go to Putin. Life expectancy is rising dramatically and alcohol-related deaths are down quite a bit.


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## bgc_fan (Apr 5, 2009)

doctrine said:


> Despite all of the hoopla and pompom, the US death rate is dropping quite rapidly from coronavirus. When you consider that new cases are now at a record high, it is more remarkable. The death rate per case is less than 1/10 what it was just in April.


Not to be indelicate about it, but this is to be expected as the infection is now starting to spread to those less vulnerable. The problem of course is when these people start visiting older relatives in long-term care facilities, would you see an uptick in deaths?


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

bgc_fan said:


> Not to be indelicate about it, but this is to be expected as the infection is now starting to spread to those less vulnerable. The problem of course is when these people start visiting older relatives in long-term care facilities, would you see an uptick in deaths?


That is true, but it hasn't happened yet, and it should have happened already - this shows you transmission paths have materially changed in 2 months in the US.

At this point, the long term care home that lets people in is being criminally negligent if there is not significant screening, testing, and protective equipment. This may be part of the reason the death rate has not been high. The homes are also much faster at isolating upon discovering cases, and staff are much better at not spreading it throughout the home and from home-to-home. 2-3 months ago, none of that was true and these homes were death pits.


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