# $100k for a big gain



## Walksing (Oct 16, 2012)

Hello all ;

Reading your posts is always helpful . Here is my question for your insights :
I am planing to put $100k for a riskier investment . I am seeking a long term (5-10years) and 10 times return. Could you kindly direct me right resources and methods to achieve it?

Regards


----------



## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

all on red, 3 times.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Everyone and their brother wants an investment that will 10x in 10 years. You're talking about a 26% annualized return.


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Pay for my law school and I'll double your money when I get out!


----------



## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I think red is only even odds so 5x ,that is the best option but watch the dealers thumb for a few spins generally the ball will land in same areas until the change up.I always play 6 numbers all same color Seriously if you pick a few good stocks you can make a reasonable 15% this year ,sounds impossible but look at the returns thread.I bet aapl alone will be good for 20% this year ,at least I am banking on it .


----------



## Walksing (Oct 16, 2012)

My goal seems unrealistic. I originally thought to put this money into a Penny company . It is sort of speculation but I can take this risk. 

Is there alternatives ? Private placement ? Flow-trough shares 

I do not know these too much but seek an unconventional vehicle to get close


----------



## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

I worry about about aapl
Our house has 3 ipods, Imac, ipad and iphone, through work i have another iphone and a macbook
i worry about sales tapering off due to saturation and competition.
I haven't crunched any numbers, its just a gut feeling.


----------



## Walksing (Oct 16, 2012)

Join the club . I have a same feeling .




Hawkdog said:


> I worry about about aapl
> Our house has 3 ipods, Imac, ipad and iphone, through work i have another iphone and a macbook
> i worry about sales tapering off due to saturation and competition.
> I haven't crunched any numbers, its just a gut feeling.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

well.
all on red and he has a 50/50 chance right.
that ain't too bad.


----------



## slacker (Mar 8, 2010)

I'll invest it for you. Annual 26% return every year. No problem. There is a risk that you may not get it back though.


----------



## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Hawkdog we are not all at fortunate as you , I am still using my 4 year old blackberry and windows computers although we do have the latest ipad and ipods lol.Of course I also plan to gamble with GRPN again as soon as it gets back to $4.00 again lol


----------



## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

^ and you will provide monthly statements right? LOL, I think I red about that story Bernie....


----------



## Walksing (Oct 16, 2012)

Interested in your strategy , can you share a little bit more? I understand the risk vs. Gain but am willing to take the risk if I can underhand your methods






slacker said:


> I'll invest it for you. Annual 26% return every year. No problem. There is a risk that you may not get it back though.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

#5 dreamcatcher in the first race at santa anita tomorrow
he's a mudder and his father was a mudder
go for the trifecta
you _cannot_ lose


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

My name is Earl Jones and I'm a professional. Please give me your money and I can make it happen :biggrin:

Kidding aside, I wish there was something that could provide some returns like that.... If you find out, please come back and help the rest of us in CMF.


----------



## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Been thinking about it and maybe if he got some clients that have poor credit he can give loans for 15% every two weeks ,risky but imagine the ROI?


----------



## slacker (Mar 8, 2010)

Well, slightly more seriously (only slightly):

Triple leveraged etf's.

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/leveraged-etfs.html


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

What about angel or venture investing? (start ups, small, private business) 
Kind of like Dragon's Den.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Walksing said:


> Hello all ;
> 
> Reading your posts is always helpful . Here is my question for your insights :
> I am planing to put $100k for a riskier investment . I am seeking a long term (5-10years) and 10 times return. Could you kindly direct me right resources and methods to achieve it?
> ...


You've defined the kind of return you're looking for (26% per year over 5-10 years), but can you better define the risk you're comfortable with?

Would you be ruined if you lose the entire 100k, and end up with $0 ? Is losing 100% of your capital an acceptable risk to you? Just trying to get a sense of what you really mean by 'riskier investment'.

Second question is, what is your broad expectation of the market? Are you bullish or bearish? Do you think stocks/commodities are likely to rise over the coming decade, or not? Every speculator should go into things with a thesis, that is, what is the broad theme you are willing to put your money on? Money doesn't appear out of nowhere. But for the gambler with conviction, that is someone who is willing to put down money on a strong belief, there is at least the possibility they will strike it big if they're "right" (or consequently lose big if wrong).

In either case, stay way from the leveraged ETFs (such as double, triple or inverse)... these are meant to be used for day trading only. They are virtually guaranteed to lose money over longer periods, and certainly aren't meant to be used for 5-10 years.

Also I'll add that I don't think you're going to get anything like +26% a year unless you're willing to take on some serious risk, by which I mean some vehicle that has a good chance of falling to $0. We are in an environment where pretty high risk is needed even for +5% returns, so what you're looking for is WAY out on the risk/reward chart.


----------



## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

marina628 said:


> I think red is only even odds so 5x


1st red : $100k becomes $200k
2nd red : $200k becomes $400k
3rd red : $400k becomes $800k

Close enough right 

Probability of this happening ain't too bad, P = 0.5x0.5x0.5 = 12.5% (should actually be lower because of the 00).


----------



## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

3 rolls at the casino now and if he ends up with 800k rather than zero, then after 10 years in a hisa at 2% assuming the rates don't go up, he has 975k, but within 10 years it's probably a reasonably safe assumption that interest rates do go up so yeah, maybe the simplest solution given his parameters. Good thinking Sampson 

88% chance at least of ending up with nothing though, and given the choice between nothing or 100k now or a 12% maybe of 1M in 10 years the choice seems academic to say the least.
Still, possibly the best option given the parameters of the question.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

There's definitely a bunch of speculative investments that could give something like this kind of return (but still not as high as he wants). I hesitate to list them here, because someone's bound to come and do something stupid -- like "investing" in them. But basically a mix of highly depressed sectors (like natural gas) and high performers in bull markets, such as small/midcap stocks.

In my opinion, someone who makes such bets is more likely going to lose the money, because I think the bull market is wearing out and you'd basically be buying at the high.


----------



## Walksing (Oct 16, 2012)

Like your inputs . I am seeking an unconventional vehicle to achieve my goal . Was considering of junior energy stocks such as private placement or flow through etc

But as you pointed out , I may wait another big crash then find a diamond in the rough .

Thanks





james4beach said:


> There's definitely a bunch of speculative investments that could give something like this kind of return (but still not as high as he wants). I hesitate to list them here, because someone's bound to come and do something stupid -- like "investing" in them. But basically a mix of highly depressed sectors (like natural gas) and high performers in bull markets, such as small/midcap stocks.
> 
> In my opinion, someone who makes such bets is more likely going to lose the money, because I think the bull market is wearing out and you'd basically be buying at the high.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> There's definitely a bunch of speculative investments that could give something like this kind of return (but still not as high as he wants). I hesitate to list them here, because someone's bound to come and do something stupid -- like "investing" in them. But basically a mix of highly depressed sectors (like natural gas) and high performers in bull markets, such as small/midcap stocks.
> 
> In my opinion, someone who makes such bets is more likely going to lose the money, because I think the bull market is wearing out and you'd basically be buying at the high.


hmm.
first time i hear natural gas here by a poster.
what do u call depressed?
natural gas this year had a run from the lows of 1.9 to the highs last year of 4 dollars.
that is 105 % increase.
between my short and long trades i made a whopping 80 % return.

I was long Ng when "u were supposed to be long NG"
and short when a short was due.
what exactly do ya know about that commodity?
why is it depressed and why do u think it will rebound lets say in the next 5 years if that is what ur implying?
i am all ears now.


----------



## 44545 (Feb 14, 2012)

Walksing said:


> Hello all ;
> 
> Reading your posts is always helpful . Here is my question for your insights :
> I am planing to put $100k for a riskier investment . I am seeking a long term (5-10years) and 10 times return. Could you kindly direct me right resources and methods to achieve it?
> ...


Would you settle for "double" in nine years?

Rule of 72

Average developed market returns since 1900 were about 8.5%, according to the Credit Suisse Global Investment Yearbook.

Apply that to the Rule of 72 and, on average, you double your money in 8.47 years. (call in 9 years)

Caveat: the next decade might be one of poor performance; you might have to wait a few decades to see that average return.


----------



## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

100k into penny stocks? don't do it dude



Walksing said:


> My goal seems unrealistic. I originally thought to put this money into a Penney company . It is sort of speculation but I can take this risk.
> 
> Is there alternatives ? Private placement ? Flow-trough shares
> 
> I do not know these too much but seek an unconventional veichle to get close


----------



## Young&Ambitious (Aug 11, 2010)

One approach is buying into juniors that have a lot of insider buying (not selling!). It's nice to see management putting their dollars where their mouth is. High risk but high reward those juniors.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> hmm.
> first time i hear natural gas here by a poster.
> what do u call depressed?


My reasoning was that if the OP wants a very high return, one traditional way to do this is to bet big on an out of favour sector. Because the Federal Reserve has juiced every asset class in existence, it's very hard to find anything that's out of favour (which is why high returns are very unlikely these days). But in the time scale 5-10 years he mentioned, natural gas is doing very badly:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=w1

It's at less than 1/4 of its 2008 peak right now. You can find other commodities that are depressed, but I think for a major commodity this takes the cake. So if you want to take a long-shot bet on a recovery, this could offer a pretty good risk/reward. He could even use natural gas mini futures with their inherent leverage to get the abnormally high return he wants (DISCLAIMER: don't do this unless you really understand what you're doing). Or some natural gas stocks, but you run the risk that they go bankrupt or under-perform the commodity. I don't recommend a commodity ETF because they under-perform the commodity itself.

But basically, to get a very high return you probably have to make a contrarian, out-of-favour bet. Such as going long natural gas, or short some very high valued asset class (e.g. corporate bonds, Apple, Canadian real estate). I do actually plan on shorting Canadian real estate via an ETF.

DISCLAIMER: I personally would only take small bets of this nature, and only with money I could afford to lose. My ideas above are all very high risk! What's often more important than the idea is the EXECUTION which is why amateurs should not dabble in these things. e.g. an amateur is likely to buy some call options, and they'll all probably expire worthless even while the fundamental bet goes his way. Tragic, and it happens every day. Or you use a futures brokerage and they collapse (Refco, MF Global) which also seems to happen with alarming regularity. The ideas are simple, but the execution is fraught with danger.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Walksing said:


> Like your inputs . I am seeking an unconventional vehicle to achieve my goal . Was considering of junior energy stocks such as private placement or flow through etc
> 
> But as you pointed out , I may wait another big crash then find a diamond in the rough .
> 
> Thanks



but of course ya will:biggrin:!
i think that u should start being a little more realistic here . or not?
there was one not too long ago.
a spinoff of ONR.
ONR was a measly 1 dollar at 1 point .
and the "STORY" got much bigger lol. 
go and look at where it is at after the spinoff.
I mean PSN for what matters. with their DIVVYS.
and that is only 1 story .
of sseveral stories.
i would take the black on the craps table actually:rolleyes2:


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> My reasoning was that if the OP wants a very high return, one traditional way to do this is to bet big on an out of favour sector. Because the Federal Reserve has juiced every asset class in existence, it's very hard to find anything that's out of favour (which is why high returns are very unlikely these days). But in the time scale 5-10 years he mentioned, natural gas is doing very badly:
> 
> http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=w1
> 
> ...


james
unfortunattely i cannot spend ... yet again much time typing stuff here.
sorry for the timing.
the natural gas mkt is a regional mkt .
ur chart above does materialize ur idea in theory.
nevertheless there are several hurdles that this industry will face in the next 5 years.
long term leveraged ETFs is a definitely no.
therefore even though the chart shows a major depression , so does orange juice, coffee etc...
each has its own fundamentals.
not only NG is the 2d most volatile commodity to trade it is the most frequently shorted commodity in the mkt.
it is not shorted just for the sakes of shorting it.
there is a reason for it.
for that i will let ya do research and find out urself.
It took me 3 years trading and learning this commodity and that kind of knowledge i will not share here.
I paid my tuition on this and if one wants to enter this trade get ready to be tested.
like i said in my post .
u go long when a long bet is due.
u go short when a short bet is due.
much luck


----------



## Walksing (Oct 16, 2012)

each:
I had ONR , made 10 bags on this . I do believe it was 
by luck not from any rational analysis.
This is why I am here to seek alternatives from you guys




thenegotiator said:


> but of course ya will:biggrin:!
> i think that u should start being a little more realistic here . or not?
> there was one not too long ago.
> a spinoff of ONR.
> ...


----------



## Mall Guy (Sep 14, 2011)

Buy RBC, BNS and BMO under $30.00 as the world financial markets crash . . . and wait for them to run back up to $50 - 60 . . . trim on highs (BMO over $60), buy on pull backs (RBC +/- $50). Or AGNC is still paying a 16% dividend, and it's pulled back around 20% . . . that seem sufficiently risky !


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> the natural gas mkt is a regional mkt .
> ur chart above does materialize ur idea in theory.
> nevertheless there are several hurdles that this industry will face in the next 5 years.
> long term leveraged ETFs is a definitely no.
> ...


Good points, and I hear you loud and clear. Don't misunderstand me: I am not recommending natural gas as a good investment. I was just brainstorming down trodden sectors that could offer much potential upside. I am not invested in natural gas myself and have no intention to go long.

The OP, the speculator, has to do his own research and decide what he wants to invest in.


----------



## Kirkx (Dec 21, 2009)

Here are a few ideas.

1) SPX (S&P 500 Index) weekly options (SPX and SPXPM). With options (long trades) you can get 100% return in a few days (sometimes a few hours), as long as you get a short term trend right. The problem is that if you are wrong the options can expire worthless, so it's a high risk strategy.

I would suggest to focus just on solid down market moves, like recession fears, depression fears, real estate bubble burst, Eurozone collapse fears, fiscal cliff, etc. Those events come up once in a while and create a panic in the markets, a spike in volatility (reflected in VIX index) and, as a result, a spike in option premiums, so your put options hit the target sooner than you would normally expect. Sometimes brokers are forced by regulators to change some rules, and often restrict margin limits, which forces big funds to sell at bid into a falling market and exacerbates the move down. That's what happened in 2008.

In your case you really only need three trades: 100k->200k->400->800. After that you can take it easy to reach your final target.

2) Option credit spreads: iron condors, butterflies, calendar spreads, bull spreads, bear spreads, etc. These are lower risk, income generating strategies.

3) Small cap stocks trading on TSX and TSXV. Bullish macro trend to support energy and mining stocks is necessary for this strategy to succeed. Stay away from small cap biotech stocks, it's pure gambling on US FDA decisions.

4) Futures: CL, YM, ES

5) Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

Here are a few links to Elite Trader forums which you might find useful:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=12

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=2

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=3

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3662457#post3662457

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=254866

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=38

http://www.elitetrader.com/


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

This stuff is all fun to discuss, but the above are very dangerous ideas and the odds you're going to make a net profit over time are very, very low.

Think about hedge funds and investment banks. These are highly leveraged firms that take on a lot of risk. But what kinds of returns do hedge funds get? Around 5% annual, on average. There are a few making as much as 16%.
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-hedge-funds-are-getting-murdered-this-year-2012-8

Now ask yourself, if all of these ideas (futures, forex, options) were such great ways to make money, then why wouldn't the hedge funds and investment banks be doing it? They have far better tools and information than you do, plus their employees have connections and lots of crooked insider info. So how on earth can you expect to make over 20% a year, when they are only able to make 5% on average? They're gambling in all these same things.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

see post #14
i recommended dreamcatcher in the first at santa anita
----------------------
*1st race - Santa Anita Park - Sunday, January 06, 2013*

Off at: 12:31 Race Type: Allowance Optional Claiming	Video Race Replay
Age Restriction:	Four Year Old and Upward
Purse: $60,000
Distance: One And One Fourth Miles On The Turf
Track Condition: Firm
Winning Time: 1:59.47
Pgm	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
2	All Squared Away Garrett K. Gomez 7.60 3.60 2.60
7	Fire With Fire Martin Garcia 3.20 2.40
*5	Dreamcatcher Joseph Talamo 2.40*
Also ran: 3 - Shaun Washington , 4 - Surrey Star (IRE) , 6 - Romp (ARG) , 1 - Sebastian Flyte (GB)
-----------------------------------------

he ran third and paid $2.40

that's an annualized return 7300%

which, on a 100K returns $7,300,000

i'm just sayin, don't overlook the ponies :biggrin:


----------



## slacker (Mar 8, 2010)

james4beach said:


> This stuff is all fun to discuss, but the above are very dangerous ideas and the odds you're going to make a net profit over time are very, very low.
> 
> Think about hedge funds and investment banks. These are highly leveraged firms that take on a lot of risk. But what kinds of returns do hedge funds get? Around 5% annual, on average. There are a few making as much as 16%.
> http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-hedge-funds-are-getting-murdered-this-year-2012-8
> ...


Margin.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Walksing said:


> each:
> I had ONR , made 10 bags on this . I do believe it was
> by luck not from any rational analysis.
> This is why I am here to seek alternatives from you guys



but of coarse u did:rolleyes2:


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

fatcat said:


> see post #14
> i recommended dreamcatcher in the first at santa anita
> ----------------------
> *1st race - Santa Anita Park - Sunday, January 06, 2013*
> ...




THAT WAS FUNNY AS **** MAN LOL.:highly_amused::highly_amused:
I JUST HAD TIME TO REPLY BUT I READ IT BEFORE.
on the same note i think u got me all wrong about the gold trade.
think again.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Walksing

Cycle spreads out of St Louise from Jan 2007 - Nov 2012 one of thier programs turned 25,000 into 173,000 using credit spreads. 

Dont know if an autotrader account can be set up in Canada?


Iam only farmiliar with them because I used to subscribe to Tim Woods cycles News & views which has made some amazing calls. Chris the guy that runs cycles spreads was often a guest speaker.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Walksing

Are you trading more then one system ?

You might want to consider trading more then one system incase one blows up the others might not i.e., if you can find 8 systems that each return an average of 30% over the last 20 years you might want to consider using all 8 or more then one of them if it can be done to fit your personality i.e., if it takes 40 hours a week to monitor them all & you hate spending that much time its not going to be practical. You might have to set it up so it only takes a few minutes a week or even a few minutes a month.

When I back test a lot of methods I mostly find the higher the average yearly gain the lower the average yearly draw down. ( back testing done without using leverage or options)

I have found that when a planetary alignment causes a higher degree of upward vibration of price. The gains are bigger & losses smaller over the test period.

I dont agree with the common perception the bigger the reward the greater the risk in the stock market is alays true. When I back test I find just the opposite.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

What about energy crystals and aligning your chakras?


----------



## Walksing (Oct 16, 2012)

Could you elaborate more about "8 systems"?





lonewolf said:


> Walksing
> 
> Are you trading more then one system ?
> 
> ...


----------



## sharbit (Apr 26, 2012)

What about Europe cross-listed stocks? (ADR's) Or somehow get a Europe account?


----------



## 1.5M (Apr 21, 2012)

Wait for a bear market (at least a 40% drop in SP500 from its peak). Buy 5 units of SP500 mini-futures, ES. Add 1 unit for every $20k gain, and sell 1 unit for every $20k loss. Liquidate at $1M (it should take at most 2-3 years after a bear market).


----------

