# Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (TRQ.TO)



## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Anyone investing in this one? I have a 3rd of my TFSA tied up in it. 

Seems as though everything is riding on one mine which hasn't even opened yet.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

They have a very lucrative gold deposit in Mongolia if I'm thinking of the right company (previously Ivanhoe?) that they are trying to get developed. I think it may be a joint venture with Rio Tinto (Rio owns 51% of this project).

This one is very promising but also high risk in a number of ways:

1. Have to deal with Mongolian government which doesn't have a reputation for being favorable to international companies.

2. Have to deal with Mongolian workers who are not skilled in mining

3. Have to find a power supply to do the mining. I believe the Mongolians are in discussions with the Chinese government to run a line out there.

4. Then there are all the usual mining risks.

So I think this would have to be considered the speculative part of your portfolio but I do understand that it is a potentially huge gold deposit that could yield several million ounces by the time all is said and done.

You could play it through Rio but that would be much less leveraged to the results of this mine.

I do know this one has been pumped a lot in the newsletter universe which would be a strike against it IMO. I would suggest it belongs in the speculative portion of your portfolio - money that you are okay with losing.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Thanks PMRE I apprecaite your comments... I agree it is somewhat speculative and the company will make or break on thier mine in Mongolia. That said we'll find out soon enough as the mine is scheduled to start production in 2013. I think now is the time to get in, once they start making money it will be too late nAs a side note I also have a 3rd of my TFSA in RIO already. They have a solid Dividend and I think there stock price is set to rise as well.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Rio is a pretty solid company but they have been beaten up because the base metals have been pretty soft in demand and pricing. 

There is a great deal of infrastructure yet to be built in China, India, Brazil and the next wave of emerging markets so I think the commodity boom cycle probably isn't going away entirely. The Chinese kicker of 70% of GDP being in construction may be over unless they decide to kick the can down the road over there but there will still be pretty big demand for the products Rio produces. Their price has been pretty badly beaten up and they are quite financially solid so it should work out over time but the next couple of years could be scary (ditto for natural gas, natural gas liquids, uranium and coal). Gold and Silver will be strong so long as all the major nations try to devalue their currencies either to manage debt or pump exports.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Big sell off lately. Looks like people are getting cold feet and are worried the gov might try and reneg the deal. I just avg'd down to 8.40/share...

Last I had read the issue of power from china was pretty much sorted out.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

*TRQ - Turquoise Hill*

I've posted on here about his stock before but the search doesn't quite find it for whatever reason. 


I'm wondering if anyone else in here is following this one? I have a pretty good chunk of money in this and after close to a year I think I'm about to realize some returns. They are sitting on one of the bigggest gold/copper deposits in the world which is about to start commercial production in June. There has been some issues with the Gov of Mongolia which has scared off some investors but these issues are almost ironed out(I hope). 

Thoughts?


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## ban (Nov 1, 2012)

Here's your old thread:
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showt...Hill-Resources-Ltd-(TRQ-TO)?highlight=ivanhoe
btw I'm one of those who got scared


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Thanks!, funny how it didn't show up for my search... 

I stayed in and I'm glad..... When it got down to just above 5 dollars I was close to pulling the plug but I've had a of these scenarios before. 1st with the BP spill. I bought after the spill but panicked before I made big money. 2nd with SAN.. Started in at 8 avg'd down to 5 and held on to make some good money. 

Now trq. Still down 7% on this one with an avg price of 8 but I think the worst is behind us. Ban now is the time to get back in. Commercial production is less then a month away although copper and gold prices are weak. Good luck to you.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

thompsg4416 said:


> BP spill. I bought after the spill but panicked before I made big money.


Just curious, how much did you pay? I was cautious at first as well, but before I bought, not after, and that's why I purchased first in the mid $30's instead of mid $20's [the 2010 low], because after watching the disaster on tv., day after day, I thought the stock could hit a single digit price, so I opted to buy when the stock began to make a recovery instead. Anyway, I sold for about 30% profit in early 2012 after holding for 2 years [so 15%/yr.], and bought again for $40 in late 2012, and now I'm holding; still a low price comparing the high before the spill was in the $60's.

Don't follow TRQ, but for that price, I would rather look at other more punished stocks, like IMG [don't own that one yet]. Anyway, good luck!


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

perhaps there will always be "government" issues with Oyu Tolgoi, which is its original name, so i kind of stick to it.

the story has always interested me because many mining companies play so dirty in 3rd world countries, whereas this one has a lot of appeal as a decent development model. Oyu Tolgoi is the best partnership deal between big western miners & a 3rd world country that i know of.

hammered out over a decade, the OT agreement gives the govt of mongolia more than 50% ownership of the contiguous zones by the time that proven & probable reserves for the existing planned mine will be exhausted.

the deal isn't a freebie; the gom has to pay for its share out of profits it will earn from mine operations from day one.

i thought the deal was fair enough. I also respected the extraordinary silence & patience that rio tinto displayed. The negotiations have dragged on for 12 years or more already. Some of the claims & statements from some members of the mongolian government have been wild beyond belief. However, Rio has never uttered as much as a syllable or even a sigh of reproach. Oyu Tolgoi has remained peaceful. It is not a "red mine" in the sense of being a mine in which a miner or a citizen has died by violence.

but - politics being politics - the leninist wing of the mongolian communist party - which has seats in government - has never given up its stated hope of owning 100% of Oyu Tolgoi. Somehow in nearly 15 years it has never occurred to these followers of lenin & stalin that, if they were to somehow gain ownership of 100% of the mine, there would then be no incentive for western engineers, western capital & western know-how to commit billions of their own $$ to develop Oyu Tolgoi as a kind of gift for the mongolian people. The marxist-leninists of ulan bator can't seem to understand that a mining business is not a charity.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

To be honest T.Gal I can't remember - 27 rings a bell but I can't be certain. It was literally the first week I started investing - in fact it made me want to invest. I kept watching the news and seeing how the markets go up and down during these big disasters or events but always end up coming back to where they started. I'd been saying for years if only I had money to make money off these things. Well it just so happened i had about 5k sitting around so I threw it in my TFSA and went at it. I learned alot.... First thing I learned was that it wasn't so easy as I thought. You need to keep your eye on the big picture and have the ca-who-na's to believe in your decisions. If I recall it dropped a bit after I bought and I sold at a loss.. then I bought in again and held on a bit longer but then it dropped and I sold again. I bought and sold that thing 5-6 times mostly all on nerves.. I came out about even on my BP trades. If I would have held on and believed in my decision I would have made alot more money.

Regarding TRQ - Its not so much as beat up as not having yet realized its potential I'm hoping it will return 50-100% in the next year from where it is now


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## Jaberwock (Aug 22, 2012)

TRQ used to be Ivanhoe Mines. It was run by Robert Freidman, who some of you may remember was involved in the Voisey's Bay nickel discovery in Labrador some years ago. He played Inco and Falconbridge against each other and walked away with about 4 billion dollars on that one. Soon after he got involved in Mongolia and somehow ended up with one of the richest copper deposits in the world. It is a copper mine, the gold is a by-product. It is well situated because the concentrate can be shipped by rail to the Chinese smelters, giving the mine a big advantage over many of the world's the other big copper mines which are mostly in Chile.

I first bought Ivanhoe at around $3. It went to $10 shortly after Rio Tinto showed interest, then slowly climbed into the 20s before falling back as commodity prices slipped. I have bought more at higher prices than it is now trading, so I am probably only a little above break even overall.

The mine and concentrator are almost complete and first production is scheduled for later this year. It is a huge project, with a great ore body. The downside is the Mongolian government which seems to be trying to back out of its agreements and is trying to claim a bigger share of the profits.

TRQ will be very profitable if the Mongolian government can keep its fingers out of the pie.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

thompsg4416 said:


> 1. It was literally the first week I started investing
> 2. I kept watching the news and seeing how the markets go up and down during these big disasters......
> 3. have the *ca-who-na's *to believe in your decisions.
> 4. TRQ - Its not so much as beat up as not having yet realized its potential...I'm hoping it will return 50-100% in the next year...


*1.* I was in my 1st year, hence my nerves; had the spill taken place last year, I probably would have recognized the value in the $20's.

*2.* It no longer takes just 'disasters' for stocks to take gut-wrenching rides; miss earnings by a penny and your stock can easily drop more than 10% by the time the markets open [now the normal].

*3.* Never heard that version before, LOL. Wonder how you would pronounce supercalifragilisticexpialidocious. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rg6vc66foXE

*4. *I understand perfectly, but I first look at the downside potential & immediately noticed that the momentum has started as the stock has risen 40% in less than a month, so if neg. gov. news were to be announced regarding production/shipping, etc., the stock could go back to $5 or lower, or it could reach the previous 2011 high of $28 sooner than expected; I wish the latter for you! :encouragement:


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Jaberwock said:


> *1. *Robert Freidman...was involved in the Voisey's Bay nickel discovery in Labrador...walked away with about 4 billion dollars on that one. Soon after he got involved in Mongolia and somehow ended up with one of the richest copper deposits in the world.
> *2.* It is a copper mine, the gold is a by-product..... copper mines which are mostly in Chile.
> *3.* I first bought Ivanhoe at around $3. It went to $10 shortly after Rio Tinto showed interest, then slowly climbed into the 20s before falling back as commodity prices slipped. I have bought more at higher prices than it is now trading, so I am probably only a little above break even overall.


*1.* Indeed he sold to Inco for USD$3.1 billion in 1996. Friedman seems to have the golden touch. Here is a bit more about him:

'Mr. Friedland, a self-made, 61-year-old billionaire, has a colorful past that includes student activism against the Vietnam War, a youthful friendship with late Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Jobs and some of the mining sector's potentially most-lucrative discoveries in recent decades.'
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303513404577351572187687512.html 

*2.* The approx. yearly production in 1st 10 years:

*- copper:* 1.2 billion pounds/1.7 billion at its peak [7th year]
*- gold:* 650,000 oz/1 million at its peak [7th year]

Chile is the largest copper producer in the world [state-owned Codelco], but the US is the largest publicly traded producer in the world [FCX]. 

*Cameron McRae, Speech to Mongolia Investment Summit 2013*

'Let me be clear –Oyu Tolgoi, the international investors – TurquoiseHill and Rio Tinto – and the Government of Mongolia – all want the same thing: a world class mine that delivers value for shareholders and a bright and prosperous future for Mongolia.' 
http://www.turquoisehill.com/i/pdf/MongoliaInvestmentSummit_CMspeech_FINALDRAFT_16_April.pdf

*3.* I traded IVN a few times back in 2010/2011 [did not hold]. Did I understand you correctly that you did not make a profit on the $3 dollar stock you initially bought at? 

I have IVP on my watch-list [a price closer to my heart]. 
http://www.ivanplats.com/s/Home.asp


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## Jaberwock (Aug 22, 2012)

I made money on the $3 shares, but unfortunately I bought a lot more at $9 than I had bought at $3, so overall I have only a very small gain. Also, the gain is in my RRSP, which is fully taxed on withdrawal. The loss is in a non-registered account which saves tax on only half of the loss. After tax, I am probably about level.

I did a bit more homework on TRQ, and compared it with First Quantum FM. The article will probably appear on Seeking Alpha next week. I came to the conclusion that FM is the better investment of the two.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

I don't know much about First Quantum FM - Sorry I don't know anything about them. I'm on SA and TRQ is in my watch list so I'll see the article - I Look forward to it. If you can link me ahead of time I'll feel very VIP'ish

What turned me on to TRQ was actually being to Mongolia and seeing the tremoundous growth and the amount of growth still yet to happen. A bit of research on companies doing business in Mongolia turned up TRQ.. etc etc and the rest as they say is history. 

My current ca Price in the tfsa is about 8 bucks. I used to have it somewhere in the high 6's or 7's but sold when it hit 9 bucks a while back(if memory serves me correctly). I'm fighting to keep myself from putting in another 2-3k at these prices. Such a small amount won't really affect my Cost avg'd price but I think the return would be good. That said I don't think I will.. I'm already too over weight in this one.


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## Jaberwock (Aug 22, 2012)

This is my evaluation of TRQ versus FM

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1463121-replacing-turquoise-hill-with-first-quantum-minerals


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Not sure if anyone is still watching this one? They just kicked out the old PM and are looking at installing a "unity gov". As long as the government doesn't screw it up all the variables are in place for this one to finally pop. I have alot of skin in the game on this and ts a risky one to be sure.


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