# Price of lumber



## robertsclak (Feb 22, 2021)

The lumber prices are outrageous.Homeowners, renovators,builders must be having a hard time passing these increases on to customers.Forestry companies don't seemed to be priced to reflect the lumber pricing.Any information is appreciated.Thanks


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ I don't know what the price of lumber is today compared to say, last year as I'm not a builder, nor renovator. However, I do know that the price of my tiny stock WEF continues to creep up (even after selling it, likely prematurely). Oh well.


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

Just had a chat with the HD guys. standard 2x4 was about $2-3 last year, now closer to 8.
he pointed out a sheet of plywood that was $10.99 last year...now $27.

I bought four 2x4x12 and one 2x6x12 pressure treated, cost over $100.

he was surprised they had inventory and said they expect prices to go up 30-50% more this year.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

The purchasing power of fiat is going down. Money printer go brrr


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

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Lumber - 2022 Data - 1978-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart


Chicago lumber futures bottomed below the $400 per thousand board feet mark, down more than 70% since their March peak of around $1,450, as higher interest rates continued to depress real estate activity. The Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening cycle has briefly pushed 30-year mortgage rates...




tradingeconomics.com


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## birdman (Feb 12, 2013)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ I don't know what the price of lumber is today compared to say, last year as I'm not a builder, nor renovator. However, I do know that the price of my tiny stock WEF continues to creep up (even after selling it, likely prematurely). Oh well.


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## birdman (Feb 12, 2013)

Still holding my WEF and am anxiously waiting to see their year end results.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

The government locks down the economy, prevents people from working and producing anything, producing shortages of goods while handing out billions in stimulus money and suddenly, for no reason at all, we have a burst of inflation. Who could have seen that coming? (sarkylert)
The only question in my mind is, is this wrecking of the economy permanent or will things go back to normal if the corona panic blows over?


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I hold a massive WEF position. I was buying below $1 and down to $0.65.

Forestry stocks are not pricing in the full price of lumber. That may be just because of the cyclical nature of the industry. The good news is that the balance sheets are being managed professionally. Virtually all of them are either net cash or nearly debt free and are starting to buy assets with the cash.

Expect to see plenty of share buybacks. WEF just started a few weeks ago and I believe the price should be at all time highs, which would be > $2.50.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

doctrine said:


> I hold a massive WEF position. I was buying below $1 and down to $0.65.
> 
> Forestry stocks are not pricing in the full price of lumber. That may be just because of the cyclical nature of the industry. The good news is that the balance sheets are being managed professionally. Virtually all of them are either net cash or nearly debt free and are starting to buy assets with the cash.
> 
> Expect to see plenty of share buybacks. WEF just started a few weeks ago and I believe the price should be at all time highs, which would be > $2.50.


I plan to trim position in WEF at around $2 -$2.25 and have an avg cost around $1.50. I watched you buying all the way down and although tempted to follow suit did not add after the covid-19 Dividend slash. My IPS tells me I cannot buy a dividend cutter. I overweighted this position in 2019. well done Doc. I do think Share price for lumber companies will keep climbing. i also expect lumber prices to fall heading in to 2022. Rarely, do I guess these thing right.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

robertsclak said:


> The lumber prices are outrageous.Homeowners, renovators,builders must be having a hard time passing these increases on to customers.Forestry companies don't seemed to be priced to reflect the lumber pricing.Any information is appreciated.Thanks


Well good news: the price of lumber has crashed.

The lumber commodity price (using CME lumber) hit a peak of $1700 around when you posted. It has only dropped since then.

CME lumber is now $411 and still falling. That's down 76% from the peak!

Great news for anyone doing renovations. Also interesting how the media is full of horror stories when prices are at their peak, but you don't hear much when the prices come down. I hope people are celebrating these great lumber prices!

Of course there are probably fewer home renos happening now, with interest rates soaring. I think that's a good example of why higher interest rates help tame inflation. Much of the demand was artificially induced by cheap borrowing... just like many things in the economy.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Well good news: the price of lumber has crashed.
> 
> The lumber commodity price (using CME lumber) hit a peak of $1700 around when you posted. It has only dropped since then.
> 
> ...


The good news is lumber is cheap. The bad news is that you can't afford to buy a house anyway, and that maybe you will eventually lose your job when the recession hits. 

I am out of the space having made buckets of money on WEF and WFG, but would consider getting back in given the debt-free status of most companies, especially if forestry mills start closing and further reducing an inelastic supply, which is likely given many mills are now unprofitable at current prices. WFG in particular is a world class company that has bought back over 30% of its shares in the last 18 months and still is net cash positive. There aren't any new forests, and it is only a matter of time before cheap borrowing returns.


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

I have a trailer frame from 2 years ago that is going to be a greenhouse trailer. I need it on wheels to get around zoning BS. Waiting on lumber prices and time. This fall might get the project started.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I haven't noticed retail prices coming down anywhere near the lumber commodity prices. I am running out of the number of days with nice building weather so I may have to get started soon. I expect prices to tumble over the winter so may see if I can delay the new garden shed until spring 2023. May have difficulty negotiating that delay with the spouse.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> I haven't noticed retail prices coming down anywhere near the lumber commodity prices. I am running out of the number of days with nice building weather so I may have to get started soon. I expect prices to tumble over the winter so may see if I can delay the new garden shed until spring 2023. May have difficulty negotiating that delay with the spouse.


There is a big lag at retail because distributors and stores bought at much higher prices. Eventually prices come down due to competitive pressures and clearing of inventory, but it takes time. Lumber is a commodity but it is also heavy so people and companies are only willing or able to drive so far for cheaper lumber. If lumber prices stay where they are, retail prices could drop 50% in 9 months. But who knows if prices will stay the same.


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