# Cameco (CCO)



## PMREdmonton

The slaughter just seems to continue with uranium producers. Cameco is now at 19 and sporting a pedestrian PE of 17 with a dividend yield around 2%. It is almost looking like a value play now despite an earlier run at 45.

It is now actually close to its 2009 low.

I know some are really down on Uranium but Japan has only talked about moving away from Uranium - I don't know if they'll be able to do it. Germany has long-range plans about not pursuing more nuclear power plants but again it remains to be seen what they'll do. Meanwhile we know that India and China are continuing to build more plants. We also know that current uranium production is insufficient for existing uranium use with the gap filled from decommissioned nuclear arms warheads. However, those warheads are now also running out.

I think this is a good opportunity for a long-term contrarian bet but I would wait for a more solid bottom to form as these guys just continue to sink. Cameco is the strongest player in the field and they have the hedging programs in place to ride out any weakness in uranium spot prices. They also seem to be intent on trying to expand with the hostile takeover of Hathor. I also wonder if they make a play on Denison Mines with their stocks down about 75% from their yearly high and trading at 1.19 now.

I guess I'm ready to jump in once the knife stops falling. Are any of you guys about ready to wade in?


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## Assetologist

I've already got wet at least to the waist with full submersion pending 

India & China are forging ahead and Japan and Germany may not be able to quickly decommission their plants.


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## PMREdmonton

Assetologist said:


> I've already got wet at least to the waist with full submersion pending
> 
> India & China are forging ahead and Japan and Germany may not be able to quickly decommission their plants.


I'm thinking about plunging in on Monday and then may continue to average down as I'm pretty happy with where the price is right now. Then I'll just sit back and wait. Maybe I'll sell some puts for CCJ (Cameco on the NYSE).


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## Uranium101

no one is in this stock anymore?

As obvious it can be, my username is pro nuclear.

Anyways, I see bright future for the nuclear industry for decades to come.

Care to disagree?


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## londoncalling

I still own Cameco. I have an ACB in the low $20 range. Perhaps I should have waited but I am content to pick up an accidental dividend nearing 2% while I wait. (Just as good as keeping it in a HIS).

I can see this sector hurting for some time but I see it as a "there's a little problem we didn't anticipate" turnaround value play as Peter Lynch would put it. It will rebound it's just a question of when. Nuclear power is here to stay. Even Germany's plan to decommission is so far into the future it's irrelevant. Besides Germany has bigger things to worry about atm. 

I recently saw a commercial on BNN by UAX. I found it amusing that they were trying to find shareholders by using a takeover target campaign. There were many comparisons made to Hathor in the ad. Perhaps they feel it is an opportune time now that Cameco has withdrawn from the Hathor acquisition. Drilling results are supposed to be released from UAX in a couple of weeks if I recall.


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## Uranium101

Did China and Indian finished their safety reviews amid Japan accident yet?
I beileve they did, but the industry is not reacting.

We have the science backing us. Anti nuclear groups have oil and gas companies backing them up. I wonder who will win lol. If you look at the funding source of anti nuclear groups, you will notice that they can be traced directly back to oil and gas companies.
Nuclear energy competes directly with fossil fuels, not with renewables. Renewables at their current stage is simply too expensive to compete against nuclear and fossil fuels.

Aside from Greenpace (they are against everything that promotes economic growth) also against nuclear power; however they are busy with drilling, fracking, building, everything lol.
Who provides funding for Greenpace anyways lol since they are against everything.


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## Assetologist

I have doubled down, now holding several thousand shares with an average price just under $20.
I am content to hold a world class company in the energy field and which pays a dividend.


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## Tradesman

Well I don't have several thousand shares ( i wish) but I just bought another 30 shares for my daughters RESP @ 19.19 last week. Brings my total up to 120 shares with an average position of 22.39.


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## rd_aaron

I played the contrarian bet shortly after the Fukushima disaster so I'm in around $26. I haven't averaged down yet as I didn't want to be overweight in this industry. I'm a little more balanced now and if I free up some cash I'll probably buy a bunch more.

As mentioned above, China has a bunch of new reactors currently being built, and there's currently not enough uranium being produced to supply all the new reactors that are planned to come online in the near future.


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## Toronto.gal

Playing the contrarian card was fine rd aaron, but 'shortly after' was the problem.

I'm bullish as well and so are the Australians [though for different reasons], who are now selling to India.

http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-...anium-customer-says-Australian-nuclear-expert

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...uranium-approval/story-e6frg8zx-1226214535827


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## Uranium101

I own around 2000 shares of cco. I average down and down and down another down.
Horroble nights i have had.
But deep down, i know nuclear will prevail.

The fundmental got crippled for maybe 5%. But still good growth prospect.


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## Toronto.gal

IMO, instead of continuing to average down & locking new capital in this constant volatility, you should have traded, saved the profits and then bought at every dip, at least that way you would have been buying with profit.

I have a good ACB on my long-term position and continue to add with profits. 

What's not to like in CCO?

Btw, were you copying my portfolio? Because I too have many shares of MFC   [but I trade them as well].


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## doctrine

Would like to get in at some point once the dropping stops for more than a month or two.


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## Uranium101

Toronto.gal said:


> IMO, instead of continuing to average down & locking new capital in this constant volatility, you should have traded, saved the profits and then bought at every dip, at least that way you would have been buying with profit.
> 
> I have a good ACB on my long-term position and continue to add with profits.
> 
> What's not to like in CCO?
> 
> Btw, were you copying my portfolio? Because I too have many shares of MFC   [but I trade them as well].


seriously? I am new here lol. I wouldn't known what you put in your portfolio.
I am just buying what is cheap and the price dropped dramatically for no good reasons. CCO and MFC are the good ones.


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## HaroldCrump

Having your portfolio copied is just about the best compliment one can receive as an investor.


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## daddybigbucks

HaroldCrump said:


> Having your portfolio copied is just about the best compliment one can receive as an investor.


what about someone giving you their money to invest?


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## HaroldCrump

daddybigbucks said:


> what about someone giving you their money to invest?


That would be the difference between Warren Buffet vs. Bernie Madoff


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## humble_pie

i'm thinking this might be somewhat nice in cameco & will be getting nicer if stock falls. Buy ccj jan 2014 10 calls, bid 9.60 ask 10.40. One would aim to purchase for 10.15, maybe 10.20.

then sell ccj jun 23, bid 1.10 ask 1.20. One might aim at 1.15 but if one had been lucky on the buy one would be content to collect 1.10.

cost of this lovely spread might be 9.05. Its upside is 13.00 before 2014. That's good enough.

if you bought a stock that appreciated 40% in 2 years 2 months you'd be happy too, right.

ps that june 23 strike price is a bit on the high side because i've already taken all the capital gains for 2011 that i can tolerate, so i'm trying to keep the gains down.

long before june those jun 23s will get rolled over, maybe to something lower & more aggressive, with a higher premium to be collected. Bref this strategy is like a covered write on steroids. Except that the long leg is not the stock, it's a 2014 LEAPs call option. It all costs roughly half as much as purchasing cameco stock.

don't even think of mentioning the missing dividend. It's a 2% dividend yield compared to 10% capital gains yield. Of course, the gains yield has more risk ... so what were you expecting, a freebie christmas present ?


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## Uranium101

Humble Pie is a pr option trader I see.

I thought about buying a long term Call option at these levels. Since I will be going long, I want to get in earlier because I need time to save up money to possess the actual shares. However, after running some numbers, I believe that using margin and line of credit prove to be better due to the following:
1) won't miss out on that dividend
2) the interest rate equivalent of that call option is around 10%+ even if i used cash

margin interest rate is only 4.25%, and line of credit is only 4.5%. I ruled out using options all together.

I have been to find a way to use options to fit my strategy of buy and hold, or anything that is in my favor; however, the option market just failed miserably for my taste.


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## humble_pie

even nicer. Down to 8.60-8.70 now.


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> Of course, the gains yield has more risk ... so what were you expecting, a freebie christmas present ?


No free lunches in this world, LOL. 

I laugh too, when people get obsessed with commissions/taxes as though one could escape them entirely. 

Wrong thread, but way to go UUU!


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## Lephturn

humble_pie said:


> don't even think of mentioning the missing dividend. It's a 2% dividend yield compared to 10% capital gains yield. Of course, the gains yield has more risk ... so what were you expecting, a freebie christmas present ?


Hahaha, classic hp!

Good old covered leaps - thanks for laying out that strategy HP. I plan to go back over my strategy over the holidays to prepare for 2012 and this brings up another aspect I need to consider.

I assume I won't be able to do this inside a registered account. Sigh.


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## Uranium101

what happens to buy and hold? dead?

No one holds anything over a year these days?


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## Betzy

A Year? I dont hang to much more than a month!


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## Lephturn

Uranium101 said:


> what happens to buy and hold? dead?
> 
> No one holds anything over a year these days?


I call it buy and hope. Lots of folks believe it's the best way to do it, and for some that are not inclined to learn and spend the time to do it themselves maybe it is. Personally I wish to protect myself from the possibility of large losses and options let me do that.

That doesn't mean I don't hold anything over a year - just that I use options to protect my investments against large losses and to generate additional yield where I can.


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## Uranium101

If you were to buy and hold, why do you needs the options?.
Dont options protect you from downside risks and cap you from up side gains?
Isnt the same as lighten up on your positions. It has the same effect. Once you've decrease your holdings, your down side and up side get decreased.


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## Betzy

Humble may well chip in and clarify but Options go far beyond just protecting from Downside and Cap from up side.
Once you understand them, (not that I claim any expertise, very beginning for me understanding these also) you could "rent" (covered call) your stock out and collect a premium that would increase your annual return, can make the difference between making a 5-6% return or making a 30-40% return over a few years. Very attractive on stocks that are stable and already pay a healthy dividend.
I also would like to thank Humble for the detailed layout for CCJ

Humble, just so I understand the end game with the CCJ spread. If stock goes up to $22.00 then we get exercised and use the Leap Call to fill: Make approx 40%

If stock keeps going down, then is when we would try to sell another C say at 18 if CCj at 16$? Would we have to buy the 23Call to close it out before?


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## Causalien

(Margins + Line of credit ) * options


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## humble_pie

betzy example was a june 23, even if stk went to 25 we wouldn't necessarily be early exercised on the june 23, there would be ample opportunities to buy it back before expiration & sell another farther out in time (by the time this exercise is being played out the sep 2012, possibly the dec 2012 & certainly the jan 2013 options will be candidates.)

or, in a soaring advancing market, one could choose to both exercise & be exercised, as you have correctly analyzed, for a nifty short-term profit.

in general, a diagonal call strategy like the ccj example means working the ongoing sale of short-term calls the same way that we work em in covered writes, when we hold the stock itself. However, the cover or the long leg is a LEAPs option instead of the stock.

in the example, one would have from now until 3rd friday in jan 2014 to keep on selling calls, all with strike prices above 10.

you have raised an example of next selling an 18 call if, say, stk would have dropped to 16 (i'd always advocate for the buying-back-to-close of the june 23, of course.) Yes, one could certainly do as you suggest & sell the 18, but keep in mind that now the potential gain drops from 13 (23-10) to 8 (18-10.)

are we ok so far.

the thing i like about the ccj diagonal - and there are many others like it - is the ultra-low strike price of the long LEAP. There's very little tv - theoretical or time value - in the premium. It's almost all intrinsic value. By paying close to intrinsic value, one is leasing-to-buy the stock, stripped of its dividends, at less than half price.

i myself buy extreme deep-in-the-money LEAPs for diagonal spreads, although i believe many others will buy leaps with higher strikes because they are cheaper.

what i like about the extreme ditm prices is that, for the life of the leaps option, there is always something to sell, even if the market falls into the garbage pit.

suppose cbj were to fall to 12 in crashed markets but one had unfortunately bought a 2014 $18 leap. There would be no premium worth selling in the short-term 20 or 22 calls. There could be some premium worth selling in the short-term 14s or 15s, but one would be opening an uncovered risk window in that one would be potentially short at 14 but only covered at 18.

but with that $10 leaps call as bedrock, even in a disaster i've still got some lavender to sell, like poor liza in covent garden.


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## Betzy

Awesome Humble, perfect explanation and Thank you again. I do get it


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## Uranium101

why is it up so much today?


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## Uranium101

you guys got your dividends from this company yet?
my account over at TDW received the dividend; however, my account at RBC DI doesn't.


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## Betzy

humble_pie said:


> betzy
> 
> in general, a diagonal call strategy like the ccj example means working the ongoing sale of short-term calls the same way that we work em in covered writes, when we hold the stock itself. However, the cover or the long leg is a LEAPs option instead of the stock.
> 
> in the example, one would have from now until 3rd friday in jan 2014 to keep on selling calls, all with strike prices above 10.


Ok Humble I have another one for ya.
Looking at this still with "I have no idea what the term for this strategy is" but here it goes:

Buy C 18Jan 14 13.00 strike price-$8.70 as of Friday close
Sell C 18Jan14 25.00 strike price-$2.95 also friday close

Cost of Call spread $5.75(not including commissions) if calls get exercised between now and then Gain would be $12.00-$5.75(CSC)=$6.25 (108.70%)

Could one and would the broker allow one to sell short calls closer to the ITM price but still not near the leap strike price all the way until Jan 2014?
As long as we own the leap call its non issue since it covers the short term calls. If they did get exercised we could use the leap to cover and then buy another leap to cover the still existing leap call sold.
Again, I am learning so does this make any sense?? Is there a name for this? 
Along this topic, what are the chances a leap call could get exercised before the expiration date? I know a month or two out if deep in the money is strong possibility but could it get exercised a year out?
thanks for sharing


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## humble_pie

good questions betzy. I'll try to answer the simple parts here, maybe get around to the rest later, ok.

_Buy C 18Jan 14 13.00 strike price-$8.70 as of Friday close
Sell C 18Jan14 25.00 strike price-$2.95 also friday close

Cost of Call spread $5.75(not including commissions) if calls get exercised between now and then Gain would be $12.00-$5.75(CSC)=$6.25 (108.70%)_

this one is a vertical spread (dates are the same, strikes differ.) As you know, they can be built on any expiration date.

i guess everyone arrives to something they're comfortable with. I wouldn't, myself, do verticals because one's money is tied up until expiration *unless* stock soars in the interim (in this example, would have to soar above 25), in which case trader might as well close out.

now if trader were to buy the 2014s & sell the 2013s same strike price, that would be a calendar spread, as you know.

what you describe next is a diagonal, which is a cross between a vertical & a calendar.

_Could one and would the broker allow one to sell short calls closer to the ITM price but still not near the leap strike price all the way until Jan 2014?
As long as we own the leap call its non issue since it covers the short term calls. If they did get exercised we could use the leap to cover and then buy another leap to cover the still existing leap call sold._

however, notice that we "could use the leap to cover" as you say, but you should then Full Stop your sentence. There would be no need to buy any other leap. Because both sides of the spread would be closed out, ie gone, game over. (the short call would be assigned to us; we would utilize the long call to acquire the stock at much lower strike price; we would then sell & deliver stock to assignor at the higher strike price.)

i've done dozens, maybe 80 of these diagonal spreads, since 2006-07 & i've never been assigned. Assignment is a complicated subject which i'll come to another time, there's already been some talk about this. Bref it's usually possible to know whether one is exposed to early assignment and, if so, exactly when.

just one reason why we don't want to be assigned is because most brokers have much higher commissions (all except IB, which i believe carries out assignments for free.)

hope we're still on the same page ... more later ...


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## Assetologist

Nice bump over the last few weeks for the buy low, sell high CCO believers.

Cameco is as good a story as any right now.


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## Young&Ambitious

Wish I had some excess cash to throw at this one today *sigh*


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## Assetologist

I'm back in this one.
It has an excellent long term story, bounces well (for swing traders) and pays a little dividend while waiting.
Ill buy more if it drops under 18.5.


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## Ethan

I bought into Cameco yesterday. Excellent timing, as usual.


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## Ethan

Sarcasm aside, CCO isn't a typical purchase for me, seeing as how their returns aren't great, the dividend is low and they've had operational struggles (see:Cigar Lake). I bought CCO because I think Uranium is a good long-term play given all the nuclear reactors expected to come online in the next 10 years coupled with diminishing amounts of uranium provided by decommissioned nukes. I think their recent acquisition spree will set them up well, considering the acquisitions were made at a time when spot uranium prices are under $50, compared to $137 just 5 years ago. Uranium is also a very clean form of energy in an increasingly environment-conscious world. CCO has some of the best uranium reserves in the world and pay very low royalty rates so I think they're a good bet on uranium long-term.


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## geckster

My Average Cost is around $21.58, but if it hits 18's I'm going to add more to my position. Japan maybe fazing out their nuclear plants slowly, but China and India are doing the opposite.


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## PMREdmonton

I put an order in for some more CCO.

This is a great opportunity for them and I believe they have been handling it well.

They are the biggest and strongest Uranium producers around and have lots of low cost Uranium that they can sell. Moreso, whereas some of the smaller companies live and die in the volatility of the spot market, most of Cameco's production goes into the long-term market with prices fixed long ago and thus provide a more steady earnings stream. While the stock will not jump as much on a quick spike in the Uranium market, their ongoing earnings stream will allow them to buy out struggling Juniors with good properties but starved of capital at bargain basement prices. They can then hold onto those properties and start developing them later when the market is more firm and they can be developed profitably.

I am very sure there will be a large Uranium bull market very soon because the supply crunch is coming between the lack of investment by Juniors due to low spot pricing, the increasing demand from Nuclear power plants being built and the lack of true shutdowns that are actually happening and the expiration of peace treaty agreements that saw old Russian nuclear warheads decommisioned and then used as feedstock for nuclear reactors. So you can see the supply mismatch coming and the last time this happened the stocks shot up to the moon. We may not get as big a response this time in the share prices because the market will remember the last Uranium crash but we may get a more stable and higher Uranium price that will markedly increase the earnings power of Cameco which will translate to capital gains and increased dividends. Because of the acquisitions we'll have acquired good properties whose price will have appreciated and we can sell them or develop them when the time is right.

Now is a good time to buy Cameco, IMO. It may go down some more but probably not more than 15% from here and I would continue averaging down if it happend. I do think the stock is likely a double in two years from this price. All they have to do is finally get Cigar Lake going and then wait for the market imbalance to happen.


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## Dopplegangerr

Yea I bought puts on them last week when it was trading a bit higher, would have been nice to wait a week and get in at the price now lol. O well I believe in the company and am sure it will swing back the other way again and it will work out well.


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## rd_aaron

I averaged down a bit today at $19.20. Bought too early after the Fukushima disaster and am overweight in it now, but comfortable in my position.


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## PMREdmonton

I added today as well at about 19.40.

I also bought some puts with a strike price at 17.


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## Uranium101

rd_aaron said:


> I averaged down a bit today at $19.20. Bought too early after the Fukushima disaster and am overweight in it now, but comfortable in my position.


I bought into CCO way before you did lol. It was back in 2010 around low 2x.xx. If i "knew" this was coming, I would have sold at 40 lol, and bought back in.
Not easy to see a double turns back into a loss lol.


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## Uranium101

What is going on? Other uranium miners aren't down, DML even went up.
Why is CCO down so much? Another downgrade or something?
I think they will cover later in the day. Going to grab some more today at lunch lol..


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## Toronto.gal

Uranium101 said:


> I think they will cover later in the day. Going to grab some more today at lunch lol..


You mean recover? 

The recent downgrade 'to hold' and price target slash didn't help; the stock is oversold, but don't let that make you anxious, if you're in for the long-term.

And about seeing your 'doubles' turn back to a loss, or to same price as you purchased, you're not alone, but look at it as an accumulating opportunity.


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## Uranium101

i meant shorts will cover lol.
but yeah, cost is king, and nuclear is the only source of energy that can go against those oil and gas companies.

i wonder how much did they spend on creating these negative publicity for nuclear power. like running ads on tv and all.


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## Toronto.gal

Uranium101 said:


> 1. i meant shorts will cover lol.
> 2. i wonder how much did they spend on creating these negative publicity for nuclear power. like running ads on tv and all.


1. Yes, I know; you didn't get my humour [no wonder, i suck at it]. :wink:
2. I pay attention to the facts, not the noise. Btw, I find the IAEA site informative/interesting. 

http://www.iaea.org/


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## Ethan

http://www.nei.org/filefolder/US_Electricity_Production_Costs.ppt

Nuclear makes so much sense given its cheap production costs and how clean it is. What doesn't make sense is building nuclear power plants on earthquake fault lines.


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## Uranium101

Looks like another bloodbath is coming lol


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## PMREdmonton

Why do you say that - it is up a bit.

I look at anything around 19 as an opportunity to accumulate.


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## Uranium101

Just my guts feeling lol.
Anyways, I dunno which country will have election soon. And I am sure at least 1 party in each country will use anti-nuclear as an incentive for getting votes.

Even in Ontario, the NDP used that before in the recent election.


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## thenegotiator

Uranium101 said:


> Just my guts feeling lol.
> Anyways, I dunno which country will have election soon. And I am sure at least 1 party in each country will use anti-nuclear as an incentive for getting votes.
> 
> Even in Ontario, the NDP used that before in the recent election.



why are u so worried?
how long are u going to hold it?


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## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> You mean recover?
> 
> The recent downgrade 'to hold' and price target slash didn't help; the stock is oversold, but don't let that make you anxious, if you're in for the long-term.
> 
> And about seeing your 'doubles' turn back to a loss, or to same price as you purchased, you're not alone, but look at it as an accumulating opportunity.



if u own it keep it.
hold it as if it was your newborn:encouragement:


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## ddkay

I bought & hoped this, low conviction, small size, I know a things can go wrong especially with all the new anti-nuclear policy... the technical picture looks ok, it's on multi-year support, enough to convince me to get my foot wet


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## thenegotiator

ddkay said:


> I bought & hoped this, low conviction, small size, I know a things can go wrong especially with all the new anti-nuclear policy... the technical picture looks ok, it's on multi-year support, enough to convince me to get my foot wet


I have very supportive reasons to accumulate at this levels.
If you are a real holder you have to know why are you holding it.
otherwise you are better off with other stocks.
this is not a daytrader stock


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## Assetologist

I am buying - high conviction and large size.
Excellent fundamentals & a decent dividend while the story plays out.
Remember "Buy LOW, Sell High". It's hard and ugly and scary to buy low!


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## Uranium101

I ahve accumulated and accumulated, and accumulated, now the weighting is around 35% of my portfolio with average price just under $23. God help me lol so i don't have to sleep under a bridge.


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## PMREdmonton

Now 35% is what I call a conviction play.

Might I suggest that if the stock gets back up to 22 and change that you lower your concentration in this holding. Then you'll have more ammunition to go long on the next dip that happens.

My avg price is around 22 but it's more like 3% weighting overall. I'd definitely buy more if it dropped some more from here but not until it hits 18. Until then I'll just bide my time and continue to collect the dividend.

The story behind this stock just has to pay off in the next 2 years. There is going to be a huge mismatch between uranium supply and uranium demand with all the new reactors coming online and the lack of investment in this space due to low uranium spot pricings from the Japanese tsunami. Cameco is the strongest uranium company out there, they are about to get cigar lake online, they have been acquiring some juniors, their profits are largely protected on the downside from their long-term contracts so they can take risks that others can't.

I have also added a bit of an income stream from CCJ by selling some 17 puts for Jan 2014. I'll sell when the stock bounces off these lows.


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## Toronto.gal

Uranium101 said:


> now the weighting is around 35% of my portfolio with average price just under $23.


I'm bullish myself, but 35% is way too much, even when you're buying a quality stock at a fantastic ACB. I would not even have this allocation in AAPL stock.

Making adjustments according to significant negative/positive moves in the market, is the right thing to do, but don't go overboard; there is more to stocks than just uranium.

There are other stocks trading at year and all time lows as well.

You don't want 'to sleep under a bridge' while you wait, do you? :02.47-tranquillity:

*thenegotiator:* LOL, but yes, I am keeping CCJ/CCO like a 'newborn' and giving another for adoption [trading]. :biggrin:


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## gibor365

I hold small position in ETF URA Global X Uranium and in losses big time. This ETF biggest holding CCO with 17% allocation, ... in a long term I'm bullish on U... was thinking to sell what is left in URA and buy CCO... at least thus I can get 2%+ dividend while waiting....URA has no dividend...


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## humble_pie

t.gal we know who negotiator is but the question becomes How does he keep signing on Here with so many userNames

??


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## thenegotiator

Uranium101 said:


> I ahve accumulated and accumulated, and accumulated, now the weighting is around 35% of my portfolio with average price just under $23. God help me lol so i don't have to sleep under a bridge.


i am talking 3 years and longer kinda patience.
under 23 is not bad at all.


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## Toronto.gal

- Members that have directly attacked me, are on my ignore list [as I would not leave the forum because of them].
- Inappropriate posts that I find insulting in general, I report. 
- The rest I do not care; moderators can worry about that.


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## humble_pie

Toronto.gal said:


> - Members that have directly attacked me, are on my ignore list [as I would not leave the forum because of them].
> - Inappropriate posts that I find insulting in general, I report.
> - The rest I do not care; moderators can worry about that.


what has this got to do with the price of chicken ?

nobody is attacking or insulting anybody. I find newbie quite charming now. We've grown accustomed/ to his face.


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## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> i am talking 3 years and longer kinda patience.


Could be longer.

*Uranium:* if I were you, I would adjust my weighting; you can do this at the right time & without incurring any capital losses.


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> nobody is attacking or insulting anybody.


No, no, I didn't say you were at all; I just meant how I go about in this forum, and that I'm less curious than you perhaps. 

I'm here to just help/learn a little, and of course without some entertainment & fabulous writing, the forum would not be so much fun, n'est-ce pas? :encouragement:


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## humble_pie

there are ways to get Back after Banning but it's Best to say Nothing More otherwise that little twerp QUANTIFY will reappear


----------



## Uranium101

good to know that you guys are committed. But it is one of the largest unrealized capital loss I have in my portfolio lol.


----------



## thenegotiator

Uranium101 said:


> good to know that you guys are committed. But it is one of the largest unrealized capital loss I have in my portfolio lol.





Toronto.gal said:


> Could be longer.
> 
> *Uranium:* if I were you, I would adjust my weighting; you can do this at the right time & without incurring any capital losses.



Uranium
T.gal is right.
i am a buyer if it dips further.
i have no problem holding them long term.
have a great week

by the way .... i do not work for CCO:encouragement:


----------



## blin10

everyone is turning away from nuclear, you might have to wait a long time for a rebound (if any)


----------



## Toronto.gal

blin10 said:


> 1. everyone is turning away from nuclear
> 2. you might have to wait a long time for a rebound (if any)


1. Everyone? There are countries, that in fact, are pursuing expansions of their existing power plants & easy to guess what countries these are.

Visit the IAEA website.

2. And how much longer for the alternative energy technologies to start, 20/30/40 years?


----------



## Dopplegangerr

blin10 said:


> everyone is turning away from nuclear, you might have to wait a long time for a rebound (if any)


As far as I am aware Germany is the big one turning away from Nuclear, lots of countries are building more plants, including China, India and the USA. I reckon bright futures of Uranium, just need to wait this dip out and there will be profits out there


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. Everyone? There are countries, that in fact, are pursuing expansions of their existing power plants & easy to guess what countries these are.
> 
> Visit the IAEA website.
> 
> 2. And how much longer for the alternative energy technologies to start, 20/30/40 years?


T.gal
sometimes we have to stop and think why some people are rich.
just for our own thinking right:rolleyes2:
he bought BAC also am I correct?
i am sure i am correct.

“Frequently, something out of the blue like this, an extraordinary event, really creates a buying opportunity. I have seen that happen in the United States, I have seen that happen around the world. I don’t think Japan will be an exception” – Warren Buffett, March 21, 2011


----------



## gibor365

Germany just using 3.2% of world nuclear by megawatt capacity . the biggest European user is France with 17% and I didn't read any rumors that France wants to stop using it. Nuclear share of France electricity production is above 77%.
_The World Nuclear Association say that China, South Korea and India are pursuing ambitious expansions of their nuclear power capacities, with China aiming to increase capacity to at least 60 GWe by 2020, 200 GWe by 2030 and 400 GWe by 2050.South Korea, they say, is planning to expand its nuclear capacity from 20.7 GWe in 2012 to 27.3 GWe in 2020 and to 43 GWe by 2030. They say that India aims to have 20 GWe nuclear capacity by 2020 and 63 GWe by 2032_


----------



## al42

the biggest European user is France with 17% and I didn't read any rumors that France wants to stop using it.

Hollande promised to reduce the share of nuclear energy to 50% by 2025.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/EE_France_needs_more_electricity_not_less_nuclear_1510121.html


----------



## gibor365

al42 said:


> the biggest European user is France with 17% and I didn't read any rumors that France wants to stop using it.
> 
> Hollande promised to reduce the share of nuclear energy to 50% by 2025.
> 
> http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/EE_France_needs_more_electricity_not_less_nuclear_1510121.html


iN THE SAME ARTICLE "During a round-table with the parliamentarians, Proglio explained that power demand in France could increase by 40% by 2025 and this would automatically reduce nuclear power's share significantly."
So, if you do simple math , increase by 40% will bring down nuclear exactly to 50% without closing any reactors.


----------



## al42

gibor said:


> iN THE SAME ARTICLE "During a round-table with the parliamentarians, Proglio explained that power demand in France could increase by 40% by 2025 and this would automatically reduce nuclear power's share significantly."
> So, if you do simple math , increase by 40% will bring down nuclear exactly to 50% without closing any reactors.


Yup..I read that, problem is when people hear that someone is reducing their nuclear power output they sell their uranium stocks.


----------



## thenegotiator

gibor said:


> I hold small position in ETF URA Global X Uranium and in losses big time. This ETF biggest holding CCO with 17% allocation, ... in a long term I'm bullish on U... was thinking to sell what is left in URA and buy CCO... at least thus I can get 2%+ dividend while waiting....URA has no dividend...


what do u call "a small position" on a losing ETF if u do not mind me asking you?


----------



## thenegotiator

Dopplegangerr said:


> As far as I am aware Germany is the big one turning away from Nuclear, lots of countries are building more plants, including China, India and the USA. I reckon bright futures of Uranium, just need to wait this dip out and there will be profits out there


2014 Leaps ?
thoughts are welcome


----------



## gibor365

thenegotiator said:


> what do u call "a small position" on a losing ETF if u do not mind me asking you?


np  I bought 200 shares of URA after Japan disaster, it jumped in price, I should've sell it , but hoped for quick rebound....still hoping....


----------



## gibor365

al42 said:


> Yup..I read that, problem is when people hear that someone is reducing their nuclear power output they sell their uranium stocks.


The more important thing that China, India and S.Korea are planning signficantly increase U consumption....old Europe is a small market with decreasing population....and in many cases politics talks about reducing, but in real life who knows.... to close nuclear reactor and build instead alternative sourse cost a LOT of money, so it's no problem for Hollande to talk about 2025 ....who will remember him in 13 years


----------



## thenegotiator

gibor said:


> np  I bought 200 shares of URA after Japan disaster, it jumped in price, I should've sell it , but hoped for quick rebound....still hoping....


Gibor
200 shares is 1400 bux.
i thought u r holding like2k/5k/ 10k shares.


----------



## Uranium101

I have couple of thousand shares in CCO with average price slightly below $23.
Losing my pants on this one lol.
I still remember back in the days when CCO was around $40, I used to say this: "I only bought 500 shares of CCO at $25.xx, I wish the price of CCO would go back to $25 so I can accumulate more". 
Thanks to that Japanese accident, the price did dip around $17.xx lol. I know I should be happy because now I can/have accumulated a lot of it to the point where I am now over weighted with heavy unrealized losses lol.
My conscious told me to feel happy, but my nature told me to feel the fear. So far conscious is winning because I continues to accumulate CCO at these prices lol.


----------



## gibor365

thenegotiator said:


> Gibor
> 200 shares is 1400 bux.
> i thought u r holding like2k/5k/ 10k shares.


 told ya it's a small position


----------



## daddybigbucks

Uranium101 said:


> I have couple of thousand shares in CCO with average price slightly below $23.
> Losing my pants on this one lol.
> I still remember back in the days when CCO was around $40, I used to say this: "I only bought 500 shares of CCO at $25.xx, I wish the price of CCO would go back to $25 so I can accumulate more".
> Thanks to that Japanese accident, the price did dip around $17.xx lol. I know I should be happy because now I can/have accumulated a lot of it to the point where I am now over weighted with heavy unrealized losses lol.
> My conscious told me to feel happy, but my nature told me to feel the fear. So far conscious is winning because I continues to accumulate CCO at these prices lol.


lol,
maybe you should change your handle so you don't feel so pressured to buy.

I'm sure it will bounce back, so sure that even i bought some yesterday.


----------



## Uranium101

daddybigbucks said:


> lol,
> maybe you should change your handle so you don't feel so pressured to buy.
> 
> I'm sure it will bounce back, so sure that even i bought some yesterday.


cant help it man. i cant control from buy bwaten up stocks with good prospect lol


----------



## thenegotiator

Uranium101 said:


> cant help it man. i cant control from buy bwaten up stocks with good prospect lol


so 
next candidate is INTEL?
i will watch it closely tomorrow


----------



## Toronto.gal

*Uranium:* you make me giggle because you sound like me. :highly_amused: Although I do have more self-control with my weighting, LOL.

*gibor:* I think it's a painful position not because of the size, but because it pays no dividends. :biggrin:

*thenegotiator:* so many bargains; good opportunity to start and/or add to existing positions of some stocks, but don't tempt U101; he has enough with CCO. :hopelessness:


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> *Uranium:* you make me giggle because you sound like me. :highly_amused: Although I do have more self-control with my weighting, LOL.
> 
> *gibor:* I think it's a painful position not because of the size, but because it pays no dividends. :biggrin:
> 
> *thenegotiator:* so many bargains; good opportunity to start and/or add to existing positions of some stocks, but don't tempt U101; he has enough with CCO. :hopelessness:



yes
I am not sure if GIBOR can hold the weight of 200 shares of URA.
by no means i am tempting uranium101.
i am tempted


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> *Uranium:* you make me giggle because you sound like me. :highly_amused: Although I do have more self-control with my weighting, LOL.
> 
> *gibor:* I think it's a painful position not because of the size, but because it pays no dividends. :biggrin:
> 
> *thenegotiator:* so many bargains; good opportunity to start and/or add to existing positions of some stocks, but don't tempt U101; he has enough with CCO. :hopelessness:



i am not sure how GIBOR will manage to handle 200 shares of URA.
no dividends either.
very painful.
you are absolutely right.
Uranium my next item is Intel.
not saying i am a buyer tomorrow but will watch further developments


----------



## Uranium101

I was in INTC way before lol.
It was under $20 lol. but i got only 500 shares.
I though it might drop another 10% before sweeping them in.


----------



## Uranium101

Double posted, somethign wrong with this forum lol


----------



## thenegotiator

Uranium101 said:


> Double posted, somethign wrong with this forum lol


not sure either.
but anyway .
if u bought under 20 bux and sold it than good for ya.
my turn now.


----------



## Uranium101

thenegotiator said:


> not sure either.
> but anyway .
> if u bought under 20 bux and sold it than good for ya.
> my turn now.


I don't sell stocks lol. I only trim them when they soared 100%.

I am still holding on to them.


----------



## thenegotiator

Uranium101 said:


> I have couple of thousand shares in CCO with average price slightly below $23.
> Losing my pants on this one lol.
> I still remember back in the days when CCO was around $40, I used to say this: "I only bought 500 shares of CCO at $25.xx, I wish the price of CCO would go back to $25 so I can accumulate more".
> Thanks to that Japanese accident, the price did dip around $17.xx lol. I know I should be happy because now I can/have accumulated a lot of it to the point where I am now over weighted with heavy unrealized losses lol.
> My conscious told me to feel happy, but my nature told me to feel the fear. So far conscious is winning because I continues to accumulate CCO at these prices lol.



u must be feeling better today right?
just be patient


----------



## Uranium101

thenegotiator said:


> u must be feeling better today right?
> just be patient


get me $25 then i will be happy.


----------



## rd_aaron

Cameco down 6.45% (so far) today after cutting long term uranium output goal.


----------



## Ethan

$105 million DB plan actuarial loss in 2012 Q3, to go with a $110 million DB plan actuarial loss in Q3 2011. Those are huge losses when you consider revenue in those quarters were $408 million and $527 million, respectively.

Does anyone know the status of their pension plans? Are these legacy plans that are hurting the company, or are they offering DB plans to new employees?


----------



## thenegotiator

it bounced right off the lows.
just got home and saw the punishment.
all my uranium stocks are down .
some just a bit.
UUU held at 2.05 buy may go lower.
another falling knive.
i noticed that the mkts are punishing hard certain stocks for either missing analysts estimates or guidances.
example ABX.


----------



## thenegotiator

UUU earnings.
not too good?
will see mkt reaction tomorrow.
tighten ur seat belts uranium101


----------



## Ethan

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...h-agreement-on-nuclear-trade/article4959269/#

This could be a game changer for Cameco. It remains to be seen when nuclear trade will restart between the two countries. The stock remains unchanged so the market is not placing much weighting on the news.


----------



## underemployedactor

The end of the Russian weapons uranium deal with the US is set to expire in 2013 as well. I think this and the India deal should be good for CCO.


----------



## thenegotiator

the lowest low on UUU is 60 cents with the mkt crash.
it held ok at 1.85 today.
that is not the 3 year low.
it can go lower but i think it may be difficult.
as for CCO it held well so far at 18 bux .


----------



## thenegotiator

since we do not have an URANIUM thread i wanted to share with the folks here that as far as i can see we hit the ultra low of U308 (250 pounds) contracts on the nymex as far back as 2010.
40.65 Us$
unfortunate but reality.
the RSI on the weekly is 5.54 .
NOV/dec/jan /feb 2012 are trading at that price.
prices on jan/17 we go to 47.1.
it is a sad story so far


----------



## PMREdmonton

thenegotiator said:


> since we do not have an URANIUM thread i wanted to share with the folks here that as far as i can see we hit the ultra low of U308 (250 pounds) contracts on the nymex as far back as 2010.
> 40.65 Us$
> unfortunate but reality.
> the RSI on the weekly is 5.54 .
> NOV/dec/jan /feb 2012 are trading at that price.
> prices on jan/17 we go to 47.1.
> it is a sad story so far


I realize spot price is low but I thought CCO sold most of their Uranium in the long-term market at a much higher rate per pound.

I also still strongly believe that this is a slam dunk if you have patience. There is upcoming increase in Uranium demand that can be seen from a mile away with all the new reactors coming online and uncertainty regarding plans of shutting reactors down in Germany and Japan (where will they get their energy from). Add to that the crushing of the Uranium Jr's post-Fukushima and the end of the nuclear arms treaty for use of Plutonium in Russian warheads as nuclear fuel and I see a visible change in upcoming Uranium pricing. Add to that CCO's ability to acquire attractive Juniors and upcoming expansion of their Uranium supply and I see a huge leg up for them.


----------



## thenegotiator

PMR
i am long uranium stocks.
i just posted for folks that may not be aware that the prices basically hit all time bottom.
maybe.
i am holding long term.
the price i posted is not spot it is futures prices.
as for how much CCO is hedging their prices at i will be honest to say that i do not know at all. I do not even know if there is actually HEDGING in Uranium.
I know about hedging natural gas but i am not a trader of URanium lol.


----------



## PMREdmonton

thenegotiator said:


> PMR
> i am long uranium stocks.
> i just posted for folks that may not be aware that the prices basically hit all time bottom.
> maybe.
> i am holding long term.
> the price i posted is not spot it is futures prices.
> as for how much CCO is hedging their prices at i will be honest to say that i do not know at all. I do not even know if there is actually HEDGING in Uranium.
> I know about hedging natural gas but i am not a trader of URanium lol.


My understanding is that much of Cameco's uranium supply is bought already on long-term contracts with fixed pricing. Exactly what percentage fluctuates at spot prices I am not sure but I do believe the majority of their supply is already spoken for.

I do believe many of the smaller companies sell into the spot market which gives more volatility to their earnings.

I think the low spot prices plus decent contract pricing will allow CCO to buy out attractive Juniors and should be accretive to long-term earnings. They are one of the few companies in this space that will have the strength and liquidity to do this.

Here is what Cameco says on the subject:

Cameco has nuclear utility customers in 13 countries on four continents. We sell uranium in direct competition with various sources worldwide and pursue a strategy of selling largely under long-term contracts. Our strategy is to commit our uranium production to utilities under contracts with a diversified mix of pricing mechanisms.

Cameco has averaged uranium sales of 31.8 million pounds per year over the past ten years.

Currently, Cameco has commitments in excess of 300 million pounds of U3O8 under long-term contracts with about 50 customers worldwide. Our five largest customers account for 47% of those commitments.

Geographically, 49% of Cameco's sales volume is to utilities in the Americas (US, Canada and Latin America), 30% to European customers and 21% to utilities in the Far East.


----------



## Assetologist

Thanks for the info!
CCO fits my profile for a hold until share price achieves it's potential:
>>> world class business, strong fundamentals, ability to solve future problem (geopolitical energy issues), decent dividend, and currently very unloved.
Buy, accumulate, collect dividends, sell when potential realized.
Bought another 1000 today.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Assetologist said:


> Thanks for the info!
> CCO fits my profile for a hold until share price achieves it's potential:
> >>> world class business, strong fundamentals, ability to solve future problem (geopolitical energy issues), decent dividend, and currently very unloved.
> Buy, accumulate, collect dividends, sell when potential realized.
> Bought another 1000 today.


I am overweight here but would buy more at 16-17 range.


----------



## thenegotiator

PMREdmonton said:


> I am overweight here but would buy more at 16-17 range.


ur 80 cents away from it.


----------



## Uranium101

we are so doomed lol.
The last nuclear scare prevented the US from approving new reactors for 3 decades.
I wonder if this time it will hold it back.

Utilities are running out of uranium I bet, and they can't sustain their nuclear fleet if they don't purchase uranium.
I wonder who is selling them those uranium at such a cheap price? I mean, you need like 50-60 dollars price in order for a mine to be profitable.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> ur 80 cents away from it.


Now even closer. :rolleyes2:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Uranium101 said:


> I mean, you need like 50-60 dollars price in order for a mine to be profitable.


Before Fukushima, the price per pound was in the $70's; in the $50's earlier this year and even lower in the high $40's in 3rd quarter of 2012 as a result of the continuing weaker demand, so I would think the prices would need to be back in the $70's to be closer to profitable.

Current valuations are more than attractive for the patient investor.

http://www.kpmg.com/ca/en/industry/mining/documents/uranium-q2-2012.pdf


----------



## Uranium101

Hmm, wonder when will the market price the shortage of uranium into share prices.

The stock tumbled with low volume. What does that mean? I dunno any technical.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Uranium101 said:


> Hmm, wonder when will the market price the shortage of uranium into share prices.
> 
> The stock tumbled with low volume. What does that mean? I dunno any technical.


IMO, the market usually starts to sense a change about 6-9 months in advance. That is when there is enough critical mass of investors and institutions which forsee an obvious upcoming change in an industry and begin to back up the truck and pour oodles of money into a position. This way they aren't hung out to dry for a non-performing position held for a year.

I think now is a great time to buy because the price is low and there are a number of near-term catalysts for this stock. They have some of the best uranium mines in the industry, a low cost of production, no political risk, a new massive mine coming soon, pay a decent and growing dividend, have lots of long-term hedging contracts in place, have the financial strength to acquire weak Juniors with good projects who are starved for cash in the present climate.

I don't know exactly when this stock or I'd jump in on that date. I am happy to buy now at a discount, collect my dividend and wait.

A way to get some extra leverage to your positions would be to play some options - buy some out of the money calls far into the future, sell some in the money puts far into the future. You'll have to pay for time-value in scenario 1 or get paid for it in scenario 2. I usually prefer to get paid for options so I have sold some CCJ puts for Jan 2014.


----------



## Assetologist

I have a big buy sitting just under $17 for tomorrow.
I won't reiterate my personal rationale for buying and holding this one until the tides turn but it's a business I am willing to back though not for those with weak fortitude regarding volatility!


----------



## thenegotiator

Assetologist said:


> I have a big buy sitting just under $17 for tomorrow.
> I won't reiterate my personal rationale for buying and holding this one until the tides turn but it's a business I am willing to back though not for those with weak fortitude regarding volatility!





PMREdmonton said:


> IMO, the market usually starts to sense a change about 6-9 months in advance. That is when there is enough critical mass of investors and institutions which forsee an obvious upcoming change in an industry and begin to back up the truck and pour oodles of money into a position. This way they aren't hung out to dry for a non-performing position held for a year.
> 
> I think now is a great time to buy because the price is low and there are a number of near-term catalysts for this stock. They have some of the best uranium mines in the industry, a low cost of production, no political risk, a new massive mine coming soon, pay a decent and growing dividend, have lots of long-term hedging contracts in place, have the financial strength to acquire weak Juniors with good projects who are starved for cash in the present climate.
> 
> I don't know exactly when this stock or I'd jump in on that date. I am happy to buy now at a discount, collect my dividend and wait.
> 
> A way to get some extra leverage to your positions would be to play some options - buy some out of the money calls far into the future, sell some in the money puts far into the future. You'll have to pay for time-value in scenario 1 or get paid for it in scenario 2. I usually prefer to get paid for options so I have sold some CCJ puts for Jan 2014.



why is it so hard for people to buy something with married puts?
can't u guys grasp the idea that things can turn even more sour?
really people .
i am bullish long term uranium but for crying out loud who knows where the bottom is?
it looks like uranium futures may have hit a bottom.
am i sure it did?
of course not.
c'mon


----------



## Toronto.gal

The other issue other than price of the stock, is the investors' patience & time horizon, as uranium prices may not return to pre-Fukushima until 2015 or later. And also keep in mind all that it's possible in between, like another Fukushima for example.


----------



## Ethan

Sold two Jan 2015 $17 naked puts this morning for $3.55.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Ethan said:


> Sold two Jan 2015 $17 naked puts this morning for $3.55.


I sold some 2014 puts a couple of weeks back when stock price was a bit higher that are a bit in the red but I'm not too worried about them.

The short-term price fluctuations of Uranium represent an ability to accumulate.

Many falsely believe that the deleverage and deflation will crush commodities. What they don't notice is that high quality commodity sources are much harder to find now than 15 years ago during the last commodity bust. The break-even costs on most new projects is much higher than current spot prices and this has devastated the funding for the Jr. explorers. Now when the uranium supply crunch hits the nuclear power companies are going to have to pay top dollar to get their supply from the existing producers. I have virtually no fear of going overweight Cameco at this price point.

Like I've said before, I usually prefer to get paid time value instead of paying time value so I like to sell puts to get a bit of leverage in my sails.


----------



## thenegotiator

PMREdmonton said:


> I sold some 2014 puts a couple of weeks back when stock price was a bit higher that are a bit in the red but I'm not too worried about them.
> 
> The short-term price fluctuations of Uranium represent an ability to accumulate.
> 
> Many falsely believe that the deleverage and deflation will crush commodities. What they don't notice is that high quality commodity sources are much harder to find now than 15 years ago during the last commodity bust. The break-even costs on most new projects is much higher than current spot prices and this has devastated the funding for the Jr. explorers. Now when the uranium supply crunch hits the nuclear power companies are going to have to pay top dollar to get their supply from the existing producers. I have virtually no fear of going overweight Cameco at this price point.
> 
> Like I've said before, I usually prefer to get paid time value instead of paying time value so I like to sell puts to get a bit of leverage in my sails.


if u really do what u say u do u must have bought some more CCO today then?
what would it be then?
i bought a little more today.
have we bottomed yet?
who the hell knows.


----------



## PMREdmonton

thenegotiator said:


> if u really do what u say u do u must have bought some more CCO today then?
> what would it be then?
> i bought a little more today.
> have we bottomed yet?
> who the hell knows.


When you play with falling knives you often get cut.

I am far underwater on this one with an ACB around $21. I'm overweight but had been considering more in the $16-17 range. I haven't bought yet but may do so tomorrow.


----------



## londoncalling

PMREdmonton said:


> When you play with falling knives you often get cut.
> 
> I am far underwater on this one with an ACB around $21. I'm overweight but had been considering more in the $16-17 range. I haven't bought yet but may do so tomorrow.


I am inthe same boat with a slightly higher ACB and also overweight. I won't be buying more in the near future. Not because I don't think it is a good buy at this price but because I do not want to be even more overweight.


----------



## thenegotiator

londoncalling said:


> I am inthe same boat with a slightly higher ACB and also overweight. I won't be buying more in the near future. Not because I don't think it is a good buy at this price but because I do not want to be even more overweight.


london.
my ACB is around 18.5 and i am definitely not sweating it.
we will be fine.


----------



## thenegotiator

PMREdmonton said:


> When you play with falling knives you often get cut.
> 
> I am far underwater on this one with an ACB around $21. I'm overweight but had been considering more in the $16-17 range. I haven't bought yet but may do so tomorrow.


I played with one recently PMR .
I posted about it and also sold at loss.
why one would ask?
i know absolutely zilch about tech stochs and decided to buy a stock that had a 20.4% share ratio of shorts.
even worse . i did not check the short position before buying .
something i do for every single stock i do buy which actually are not many.
was it a stupid move from my end?
damn right it was.
i call it an adventure.
position was not small either.
did i buy married puts with it?
damn right i did and actually those will probably be in the money at expiration.
go figure that one .
i am very very used to falling knives... bought with insurance.
CCO is not a falling knive and will not go bankrupt.


----------



## Assetologist

More cco and uuu today (no insurance) just a patient long-term outlook.


----------



## thenegotiator

Assetologist said:


> More cco and uuu today (no insurance) just a patient long-term outlook.


like i said
CCO is not going bankrupt.


----------



## Uranium101

Q4 2012 earning and Q1 2013 guidance is out as well as full year 2013 forecast.

Earnings down, outlook dimmed, I am expecting a sell off on Monday for CCO.


----------



## thenegotiator

if u do 
wait till it consolidates.
this is not a short term holding stock unless u actively monitor and trade it.
holding one core position only.
have not read the report yet and i am not in a hurry either.
if it was negative i expected it that way no matter what.
the main catalyst has not come forward yet.


----------



## Uranium101

After doing some analysis, I don't think the result is that bad.
There is a one time impairment charge related to Kintyre exploration project in Australia.
They got the property in 2008, and they can sell it at 168 million loss.
I wonder how much they actually paid for it. If the uranium price stays this low, more impairment charges will be recognized in later quarters from this project and others.

Aside from that, Q4 wasn't that bad. But the statements given in the statements are very discouraging.
Expect bad results in Q1 of 2013 they said.


----------



## thenegotiator

101
expect the industry to remain in the tank for awhile.
the catalyst of all that has yet to show its face.

in the mean time if ur not comfortable holding it then trade something else.
it may take awhile.

cheers.


----------



## PMREdmonton

I agree - if you want to play the uranium renaissance you need some patience. You have to wait for the end of the nuclear arms treaty to end and for all the new nuclear reactors to start to come online. Then you're going to see a massive shortage. Meanwhile Cameco will have brought their second major mine online and will also be benefitting from a huge spike in Uranium prices.

I actually don't mind the low prices for now. I hope it allows them to scoop up some more good properties at low prices from Juniors who can't stay afloat in the current challenging financing environment.


----------



## Uranium101

Not much of a sell off as I have predicted, only 3%.


----------



## thenegotiator

Uranium101 said:


> Not much of a sell off as I have predicted, only 3%.


selloff on volume.
hard to say where exactly the low will be but a retest of 19 bux will happen.
main reason is a mkt retracement.
long term i would not be so worried.
buy on dips.
cheers

p.s

i want to share with all of ya also that there are some rumors of scaling down certain old nukes in the states and replacing them with NG fired generators.
now do not start panicking and believing that that is it for nuke power.
this is solely an American phenomenon and it will not happen from day to night.

as u can see Ng is an interesting catalyst in the American mkt is it not?:encouragement:


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## favelle75

*Cameco (CCO)....WTH?*

This stock has gone up like 10% in the last 3 days.....what's going on??


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## Janus

favelle75 said:


> This stock has gone up like 10% in the last 3 days.....what's going on??


Upgraded by Bank of America. 

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=...AHPtwE&usg=AFQjCNEQw0iVz5i50pkY4GfgZPVabYCz8g


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## Taraz

The "megatons to megawatts" program is ending, resulting in decreasing supply. Also, people are still building nuclear reactors (and Japan will probably restart theirs at some point). 

If it weren't for Fukushima, it would be far higher than this already. I'm almost tempted to buy some for my TFSA this year.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/194...bet-for-the-likely-recovery-in-uranium-prices


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## daddybigbucks

I sold my cco yesterday. 18% gain in a few months is good for me.


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## Taraz

I also suspect they'll be reporting more income in Canada in the future because of this:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/09/25/cameco-cra-tax/

It sounds like they were actually making far more profit here than their financials would imply at first glance. 

Of course, they'll have to pay the backtaxes first, and that won't help the stock.


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## Islenska

I was early on Cameco but just getting into the black with the upgrade, which is decent.

A bit of a dividend and some $40ish targets out there.

We were actually on Maui the night of the Japanese sunami, wasn't major for us but uncomfortable as were evacuated to higher ground for the night and at our beach area the water rose about 8feet (I think), it arrived 5 AM. Talk about something outta left field!


----------



## Pluto

It's obvious (to me) that nuclear power is the future. I can't take Germany's energy policy seriously. Apparently they prefer coal fired power plants over nuclear. Coal is supposed to be green? Good grief. Then Germany buys power from France when they need it, and France is over 90% nuclear. I can't take the Global warming alarmists seriously when they prefer coal fired plants over nuclear. Anyway, due to serious pollution from coal fired plants, and the yield from wind and solar is meager, it is obvious that nuclear is going to be the primary option. 

Buy low, sell high.


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## londoncalling

Islenska said:


> I was early on Cameco but just getting into the black with the upgrade, which is decent.


Me as well 



Islenska said:


> A bit of a dividend and some $40ish targets out there.
> 
> We were actually on Maui the night of the Japanese sunami, wasn't major for us but uncomfortable as were evacuated to higher ground for the night and at our beach area the water rose about 8feet (I think), it arrived 5 AM. Talk about something outta left field!


That is truly bizarre. My former boss was also in Maui at the time. I remember emailing him about it. They had to evacuate their rented condo and head to the roof at about 3 am till it passed. The pictures were amazing!


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## Ethan

CCO up 12.3% in the last 2 days after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe indicated he would like to restart all 48 of the countries idle nuclear reactors and he expects nuclear energy to play a large role in Japan going forward. Yellowcake spot prices remain around $35/pound, however that figure should rise once Japan restarts their reactors.


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## Taraz

It also helps that the Megatons to Megawatts Program is over now. :chuncky: I'm a happy camper.


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## Janus

I'm not allowed to own individual stocks right now but I got my CCO & uranium exposure through the URA ETF (CCO is 25% of it). Also a very happy camper. 

Megatons to Megawatts done: check
Japan coming back on: check
China & india doing a rapid buildout: check
low uranium prices pushing small suppliers to cancel projects, restricting supply: check


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## Fain

Janus said:


> I'm not allowed to own individual stocks right now


Over zealous compliance department it sounds like. URA is good exposure though. I like the larger more capitalized producers over the junior miners though. There's still short-term low prices in the uranium market which may cause some to close up shop or dilute their shares.


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## Janus

Fain said:


> Over zealous compliance department it sounds like. URA is good exposure though. I like the larger more capitalized producers over the junior miners though. There's still short-term low prices in the uranium market which may cause some to close up shop or dilute their shares.


Exactly why I would rather own only CCO. Not sure how many small players can last it out until there's some real price recovery.


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## Taraz

Janus said:


> Exactly why I would rather own only CCO. Not sure how many small players can last it out until there's some real price recovery.


Yeah, and once the small players die out, more $$ for Cameco.


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## favelle75

daddybigbucks said:


> I sold my cco yesterday. 18% gain in a few months is good for me.


Ouch, that sucks. Sorry about that. Its gone up almost every day since.


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## plasmasnake

Any thoughts on where this is going? Looks like it dropped right back down to where it was 6 months ago. I'd like to own this, but preferably at a lower P/E.


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## Dibs

CCO has dropped for its $27 highs in March to $20 with the latest 4.5% drop yesterday after news of a tax avoidance squabble with the CRA:



> To review: In 1999, Cameco set up a subsidiary, Cameco Europe Ltd., in low-tax Zug, Switzerland. Cameco then signed a 17-year deal to take the uranium it produces in Canada and sell it to Cameco Europe before it made its way to the end customer.
> 
> By injecting a middleman into the transaction, Cameco is able to sell the uranium to Cameco Europe at the low prices reflective of 1999. As a result, Cameco is recording little to no profit in Canada. Instead, all the profits appear in Zug, where the tax rate is lower.
> 
> Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...uabble-that-keeps-on-growing/article18989010/


A recent RBC report on the supply and demand of uranium forcasts that the market will remain oversupplied until 2021. 



> We have completed a detailed review of our supply/demand model. The global uranium market continues in a state of significant oversupply. Active annual supply exceeds demand by a significant margin, and on top of that, significant excess inventories have been and continue to be accumulated post the Fukushima disaster, particularly in Japan. We now expect the market to remain oversupplied until 2021, and for prices to be constrained over the next three to four years as a result. [...]
> 
> Source: http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.cco/cameco-corp?threadid=22632447


Things are looking down right now for CCO. I own some CCO I am going to be watching it more closely.


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## Ethan

I bought CCO as a long-term hold because I expect the long-term demand for uranium to increase dramatically. This pick up in demand is taking a lot longer than I expected. I still think there is potential here.


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## daddybigbucks

favelle75 said:


> Ouch, that sucks. Sorry about that. Its gone up almost every day since.


im not sorry. I took the proceeds and put them in ALA.
i try not to look a gift horse in the mouth.
CCO and uranium is a good space but its just too sporadic for me.

are you still holding?


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## Toronto.gal

daddybigbucks said:


> i try not to look a gift horse in the mouth.


+1.

I sold 1/2 for about 30% profit, which was adjusted/lowered from my original exit strategy, but the recent & quick highs were hard to ignore in this particular space.

I plan to pick up the sold 1/2 again with same cash/profits still sitting in my account; not far from my current ACB.


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## daddybigbucks

Toronto.gal said:


> +1.
> 
> I sold 1/2 for about 30% profit, which was adjusted/lowered from my original exit strategy, but the recent & quick highs were hard to ignore in this particular space.
> 
> I plan to pick up the sold 1/2 again with same cash/profits still sitting in my account; not far from my current ACB.


Are you at least thinking of buying back into ECA too?


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## Toronto.gal

^ Oh, I did buy back! 

Remember I was initially in & out in the $30's in 2010 [ u thought I had been crazy, remember?], so it was a no-brainer getting back in.


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## gt_23

Ethan said:


> I bought CCO as a long-term hold because I expect the long-term demand for uranium to increase dramatically. This pick up in demand is taking a lot longer than I expected. I still think there is potential here.


Where do you see the demand coming from? Medical?

Do you think demand for nuclear power will increase given recent trends?


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## Ethan

gt_23 said:


> Where do you see the demand coming from? Medical?
> 
> Do you think demand for nuclear power will increase given recent trends?


I expect the demand to come from Japan restarting the nuclear reactors and from China. I also think long-term more countries are going to want to use nuclear as it is one of the cleanest ways to generate electricity.


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## fatcat

gt_23 said:


> Where do you see the demand coming from? Medical?
> 
> Do you think demand for nuclear power will increase given recent trends?


i'm not sure what you mean by "recent trends" but it does seem clear that the waste generated by nuclear power, problematic though it may be, is less problematic than the warming that may be occuring as a result of burning fossil fuels for power

france has been getting 2/3 of it's power from nukes for a long time with a very good safety record

i think it is gradually being seen as the lesser of 2 evils and the demand will surely kick in someday, when that will be is another question


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## Hawkdog

could be a buying opp around the corner here, a strike is shutting down operations at a couple of CCO's N. SK. Mines.


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## Hawkdog

SASKATOON, SASKATCHEWAN--(Marketwired - Aug. 27, 2014) -

ALL AMOUNTS ARE STATED IN CDN $ (UNLESS NOTED)

Cameco (TSX:CCO)(NYSE:CCJ) announced today that, in response to receiving strike notice from the United Steelworkers Local 8914, the company initiated a shutdown of its McArthur River mine and Key Lake mill operations and will cease production at those sites.

The union has advised Cameco of its intention to commence strike action, effective 12:01 a.m. on August 30, 2014. In response to the strike notice, Cameco issued a lockout notice effective 12:01 a.m. on August 30, 2014 to assure a safe and orderly shutdown of its facilities. Cameco is continuing to meet with the union during the 72-hour notice period.

The work stoppage involves approximately 535 unionized employees at the two operations. Contract negotiations began in November 2013. The previous four-year contract expired December 31, 2013. In July, the company and union jointly applied for conciliation under the Canada Labour Code.

A labour disruption is not expected to affect the company's 2014 uranium delivery commitments to customers. Cameco may draw on a variety of supply sources including primary production, and existing purchase commitments and inventories.


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## Jesse

I like CCO at these levels and took a starting position today with 500 shares.


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## Ethan

The union could not have chosen a worse time to strike. Yellowcake is near record lows at $30/pound and there is excess supply in the system. Cameco is probably happy to shut down McArthur River for a few weeks; they have all the bargaining power.


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## Ethan

Yellowcake prices are up 3.2% to $32.50 today. Despite the impending shutdown at McArthur River, Cameco will be able to meet all customer commitments through other sources including drawing down their inventory.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-uranium-price-in-2-12-years/article20234894/

Thanks United Steelworkers for increasing the value of Cameco's inventory while not jeopardizing their ability to supply customers!


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## Moneytoo

Ethan said:


> Thanks United Steelworkers for increasing the value of Cameco's inventory while not jeopardizing their ability to supply customers!


+1 lol

(Too bad that I don't have spare cash to buy more shares - only have 50, purchased for $20.50 back in July... )


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## favelle75

Moneytoo said:


> +1 lol
> 
> (Too bad that I don't have spare cash to buy more shares - only have 50, purchased for $20.50 back in July... )


I sold on Monday....waiting for sub-$20 for a re-entry.


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## Ethan

Cameco and the United Steelworkers have agreed to a tentative deal to end the strike:

http://business.financialpost.com/2...-mine-ends-after-nearly-two-weeks-union-says/


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## londoncalling

https://www.equities.com/news/cameco-corporation-cco-ca-rises-10-21-for-january-10

Hindsight being 20-20 a coworker and I discussed buying more in December. Would have been a great return short term. Long run would have put me overweight in both sector and company.

Still good news for those that hold. Still under water since I purchased post fukishima. Long term hold for me. May trim if it ever gets back into the 20s. Cheers


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## Drauss

londoncalling said:


> https://www.equities.com/news/cameco-corporation-cco-ca-rises-10-21-for-january-10
> 
> Hindsight being 20-20 a coworker and I discussed buying more in December. Would have been a great return short term. Long run would have put me overweight in both sector and company.
> 
> Still good news for those that hold. Still under water since I purchased post fukishima. Long term hold for me. May trim if it ever gets back into the 20s. Cheers



Likewise, i had my average cost at around $20ish built in the past years, after it fell close to $16 this past summer, I averaged down ,,, and whoops ... wrong move as it dropped even more.
I waited some month until was able to grab some at $11.4. Have been happy to see my investment rebound to a only 8% loss (  ).

Though not entirely sure what is moving at this point. 
Looks like uranium has been the last participent to enter the commodity rally. Or perhaps the talks about defence and nuclear built up. Thing is all i hear on news is US nuclear power plant wanting to close down.

let's see... haven't bought anymore since $11.4 nor planning to sell underwater
Average cost is around $17, at least it pays some dividends


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## zylon

> .... We also continue with our Uranium day and talk about a couple stocks and why Chris thinks this will continue to be a good investment sector.


http://www.kereport.com/2017/01/10/general-uptick-growth-world/

Starting at about *9 minutes* in, Chris Temple spends a few minutes talking about uranium.


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## m3s

CCO nearly doubled since March. Still hasn't really recovered from the start of this thread in 2011? P/E was apparently 17 then w 2% dividend and now 82 P/E according to google



PMREdmonton said:


> The slaughter just seems to continue with uranium producers. Cameco is now at 19 and sporting a pedestrian PE of 17 with a dividend yield around 2%. It is almost looking like a value play now despite an earlier run at 45.


----------



## londoncalling

Cameco Increases Interest in Global Laser Enrichment (tmx.com) 

Yesterday's announcement was well received. Share price up 18% today.


----------



## Ponderling

Sometimes fate intervenes in a nice way. About two weeks ago I unloaded some Linamar in the tfsa.It has made a very strong run in the last 6 months or so. And the cash from that went into buying more CCO. Settled last tuesday I recall.

I had to read up on what that they have increased their stake in. Sounds very interesting, and it sounds like the US DOE has a long pile of uranium they want processed. When the us government declares the information the originator company holds to be secret that usually means they want the work to at least be further developed.


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## londoncalling

Earnings Release today

Resilient in the face of unprecedented challenges; Globally, net-zero carbon targets support nuclear growth... (tmx.com) 

Share price up 8.5% to close at 20.88. been a couple great weeks for the price after many years of depressed pricing


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## londoncalling

Anybody know why Cameco is down 10%? This is the only related press release I was able to find about the stock today. Other players in the space are also down around 5% so this may not be as big a concern. However, When I saw double digit red on the day I got excited.

GLE Appoints President and Chief Commercial Officer (tmx.com)


----------



## DenisD

londoncalling said:


> Anybody know why Cameco is down 10%?


China Taishan plant: 'Performance issue' reported at nuclear facility


----------



## londoncalling

DenisD said:


> China Taishan plant: 'Performance issue' reported at nuclear facility


Thanks @DenisD


----------



## londoncalling

Share price has been experiencing volatility but definitely seeing higher highs. Is now my largest holding. Will see what happens with the next earning report and decide whether to trim and if so by how much.


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## Ponderling

Seems like the CCO price might be getting ahead of what it might trade for in a year, so I recently at 52w highs cut our holding and now our stake is down to 5K


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## Rusty O'Toole

Talk is the Wall Street Bets apes at Reddit have taken up uranium and that is why Cameco and others in the sector are soaring. They may do what they did to Gamestop. Bought a 100 today for the hell of it. Not my usual kind of play but may be good for a laugh.


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## m3s

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Talk is the Wall Street Bets apes at Reddit have taken up uranium and that is why Cameco and others in the sector are soaring. They may do what they did to Gamestop. Bought a 100 today for the hell of it. Not my usual kind of play but may be good for a laugh.


Uranium isn't a meme stock imo

Sprott launched a uranium ETF and they're buying it up. So it is demand from investors rather than nuclear power itself but there can be a supply shock from the underlying real demand of that nuclear. Sprott is supposed to list this new ETF on NYSE as well

Looks like the Sprott ETF is trading at massive premium right now which should mean they are buying from CCO?


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## londoncalling

Trimmed my position by 1/6 today at 35.36 C$ as this stock has risen quite a bit this past while. It was my largest equity holding and is still 4.5%


----------



## londoncalling

After my previous sale the stock retreated around $25

Haven't given a close read but today's Q4 was well received by the market. SP was up 10% this morning

Q4 - 2021 - Quarterly Reports - Financials - Invest - Cameco


----------



## m3s

Sprott Uranium ETF is up +20% in 2 weeks

Kazahkstan is the other major uranium producer


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## m3s

londoncalling said:


> Trimmed my position by 1/6 today at 35.36 C$ as this stock has risen quite a bit this past while. It was my largest equity holding and is still 4.5%


You sold the exact top to the penny


----------



## londoncalling

m3s said:


> You sold the exact top to the penny


Very lucky indeed.


----------



## londoncalling

With today's 10% run up CCO is once again my largest position. . I expect volatility to persist in the market but do not intend to trim further at this time.


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## londoncalling

SP fell almost 10% today. Volatility is the norm. Overall portfolio is bumping along and still positive. Although I have a full position in, uranium, oil and agriculture I have been looking for a dip to add exposure to commodities either lumber or metals.


----------



## londoncalling

Most stocks are in the red today and commodities are down high single digits. Cameco down around 10% to 27.60 right now. Another 15% and I may add back some more shares.


----------



## londoncalling

Share price is approaching $39 at $ 38.88. Is once again my largest position. Will hold for now as there are a lot of tailwinds behind uranium. Will get interesting if gets into the low to mid $40s while the rest of the market is trending lower.


----------



## m3s

War and energy crisis

Uranium is lookin pretty good

Elon even tweeted about it


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1563292201043431424


----------



## londoncalling

Cameco and Brookfield Renewable Form Strategic Partnership to Acquire Westinghouse Electric Company (tmx.com)

CCO down almost 13.5% today to close at 30.82 on a relatively flat day for the market.


----------



## gardner

This Westinghouse deal feels pretty big to me. 'Specially with what I would think of as a strategic nuclear energy company being transferred to foreign (Canadian) control, I would have assumed a good deal more gnashing of teeth and fanfare. I wondering if they will have any luck with it. I've never held Cameco and I've had it with Brookfield's bag of doorknobs.


----------



## londoncalling

Cameco Announces Third Quarter Results, Benefiting From Execution of Strategy; Continued Contracting Succes... (tmx.com) 

Haven't had a chance to review the results.


----------



## m3s

Did you see this @londoncalling ?

Seems like the inevitable reality that nuclear power. I'd expect to see more of these announcements from Europe for example



> Ottawa will provide Ontario Power Generation with a $970-million loan to build the Canada’s first small-scale nuclear power reactor at Darlington, which is expected to go online in 2028.





> Global interest in SMRs has been rising as countries look to nuclear power to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, says the International Atomic Energy Agency. But most small nuclear reactor designs are still in the initial stages, except for a few in Argentina, China and Russia which are more advanced.











Ottawa loans Ontario Power Generation $970 million to build Canada's first SMR at Darlington


Canada Infrastructure Bank to loan Ontario Power Generation $970-million to build the first small-scale nuclear power reactor. Read on




financialpost.com


----------



## londoncalling

Thanks @m3s I am familiar with OPGs Darlington faciltiy and was expecting an announcement that the feds would be pouring money into it based on chatter from my contacts in the industry. However, there is often a lot of talk and promise that never comes to fruition. There has also been talk of SMRs out west for a number of years. Darlington is a logical choice and a frontrunner. I am excited for this shift as I have been a proponent of nuclear since the 90s. It's early days in the nuclear revival so I am not going to get too excited. It took a lot longer than I expected after Fukoshima. I still hold a lot of Cameco and may get a chance to get more before 2028. Hopefully Canada will be able to improve upon current SMRs to make them even more efficient.


----------



## m3s

US Air Force is also looking to build one on the F-35 base in Alaska. I think this trend will only continue especially if China is ahead.

Might take a while for uranium demand to pick up but then we have Sprott Uranium ETF hoarding uranium via Cameco (I assume)









U.S. Air Force Base To Be First To Deploy New Nuclear ‘Microreactor’ - Soon Every Town Could Have One


Every branch of the US Military is worried about climate change. They have been since well before it became controversial. Their conclusions are climate change is a significant threat multiplier. So their choice of Eielson Air Force Base to receive its first nuclear microreactor is a good one.




www.forbes.com


----------



## Covariance

m3s said:


> US Air Force is also looking to build one on the F-35 base in Alaska. I think this trend will only continue especially if China is ahead.
> 
> Might take a while for uranium demand to pick up but then we have Sprott Uranium ETF hoarding uranium via Cameco (I assume)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Air Force Base To Be First To Deploy New Nuclear ‘Microreactor’ - Soon Every Town Could Have One
> 
> 
> Every branch of the US Military is worried about climate change. They have been since well before it became controversial. Their conclusions are climate change is a significant threat multiplier. So their choice of Eielson Air Force Base to receive its first nuclear microreactor is a good one.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com


Is there still one in Hamilton at the University or did they shut that one down?


----------



## m3s

Covariance said:


> Is there still one in Hamilton at the University or did they shut that one down?


I don't know but several Canadian universities have slowpoke reactors for research. Mine had the first operational one


----------



## Eclectic21

Covariance said:


> ... Is there still one in Hamilton at the University or did they shut that one down?


Still there as of last year.








Everything you need to know about the McMaster Nuclear Reactor


Does it generate power? Does it glow? Can I take a tour? Learn some fun facts and test your knowledge of the nuclear reactor on campus this Nuclear Science Week.




dailynews.mcmaster.ca





Chalk River seems to be the SMR that is in progress.




__





New reactor facility projects - Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission


The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) is an independent federal government agency that regulates the use of nuclear energy and material to protect health, safety, security and the environment and to respect Canada&rsquo:s international commitments on the peaceful use of nuclear energy.




nuclearsafety.gc.ca





Cheers


----------

