# Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)



## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

ANF down -13% today.
ANF had their first quarterly decline in sales at established stores in more than two years.

I took a hit on this one, as I thought the growth would continue.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Teen retail apparel is such a risky business because their tastes can dramatically change on a whim. That which was hot can quickly become despised. That's why I worry about this sector much more than technology.

I think it is usually better to buy the down and out guy who is still profitable and hope they can revive their franchise. I'm thinking GAP might be a better choice for the future. 

In the clothing line overall, I'd probably prefer Buckle.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

In Paris last September, we met the parents of a bright young lady who had been transferred from Ohio to establish their initial presence on the Champs Ellysee. The opening went very well with line-ups and brisk sales. The plans are to open selectively throughout Europe. This will incure short term costs for long term benefits. I am not sure that Europe is a good place for retail right now and so did not invest. They should be OK long term though.


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## Dopplegangerr (Sep 3, 2011)

I was in NY a couple days ago and went shopping here, the store was totally packed on a Tuesday afternoon. I really like there stuff and spent probably $300 dollars my self. And they straight up had the best looking sales staff I have ever seen. I know at some of the stores they hire male models to walking around topless all day in the store (Singapore for sure does this.)
I will be watching this stock from now on. Who owns this one and how do u feel about it?


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Not a fan of this chart, huge downtrend, looks pretty safe to fade the rips. Long term any clothing retailer is risky. All ANF stuff looks like variations of the same older stuff.

Maybe its better to hold 'blue chip' fashion brands? What about that company that has a monopoly on all eyeglasses frames? Luxottica SpA. They look a lot more stable.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

I've held this stock since late Feb 2012 and am down about 40%.
I'm losing faith. However, I will hold and evaluate for one more earnings report (Aug 14) before I decide to send this clothing stock packing to the Goodwill store.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

avrex so sorry about the paper loss. I don't know abercrombie & fitch/ but topless fashion stocks are a *****.

look at lululemon, product is unchanged but its day may be over.

off-topic but maybe trending: burberry of england. I don't know who owns it or whether it trades publicly. Salesforce of california (CRM) has played a huge role in their current marketing glam.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

thanks @humble. I've learned that I need to tread more carefully into these types of stocks.
It looks like Burberry does trade in London (LSE). I'll add it to my 'to be analyzed' stock list. thanks.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I still think Buckle is a better buy.

They have a listed 2% div yield but it is really more like 8-10% because they usually have a special dividend in the fall of about 2-2.50.

They have sold off recently and are now in a buying range price again of 38. It might make sense to try and wait for a fall to 35 to invest or maybe buy a tranche now (1/3 position) and then wait to see if it falls more.

Another way to play it would be to sell a Sept 35 put. You get 2.30 right off the bat and if it does fall you probably end up also getting the special dividend in a month for another 2.25 or so. So you'd have about 4.50 of insurance right there protecting you all the way down to a price of 31 which would be another 25% decline from its present price. The perfect scenario of a drop to 34.50 would net you the stock at ACB of 30 almost right off the bat. If it stays above 35 you collect your 2.30 and move on.


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## Andre112 (Apr 27, 2011)

I've been watching this stock along with ARO, AEO, GPS for almost 2 years. I don't know enough about stocks but I know clothing style and fashion.
I initially thought their clothes look good but over priced. But everytime I went to any mall that has hollister or A&F, I see more than a few teenagers holding their paper bags or even lining up to get into the store on weekends. Lately, they are constantly giving discounts and having sales with price similar to AEO or even ARO. I think their brand image is hard to beat.

As for The Buckle, their style is so much different from ANF, they are for different market.
And I feel GAP is like McDonald's. It's there, nothing special but if you need something basic, they probably have it.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Buckle is different as they are more accessory related.

However, they have consistently grown and are very efficient if you look at something like ROE, PE, margins, sales growth, earnings growth, BV/Share, FCF, FCF growth - they all look really good.

But this company also happens to have an unknown dividend yield that sits around 8% right now when you add in their yearly special dividend of 2.00-2.50. So many income investors miss them altogether because it won't show up on their dividend screen.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Nice 8% jump today.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Analyst downgrade <grumble, grumble>


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