# TransForce Inc (TFI)



## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Anyone else holding TFI? Solid 10+% gain today on solid earnings and news about a "friendly takeover of Ontario-based Contrans Group".

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/n...company-with-495m-deal-for-contrans-1.1261241


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I've been making a lot of money from their acquisitions. They bought Clarke transport from CKI, which added something like $3-4 a share to a $7 stock at the time, and Trimac, which I own as well (TMA) has been trading at all time highs. I suspect it is because of possible takeover activity. I believe the US parent of Trimac owns a significant stake, but they could always sell their subsidiary.

Meanwhile, if I was a CSS shareholder, I would be upset. The stock was already trading at the takeover price - where is the classic 10-20% premium? The fact that CSS is trading higher than the takeover value of $15 means perhaps some people think the offer will be boosted by a few %.


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## martinv (Apr 30, 2009)

I have had CSS on my watch list for quite some time. Finally, on Monday, July 21, I invested @ $14.17. On Friday, I wake up to find it has been taken over by TransForce. That was quick!
Nice, but I was looking at a 5 to 10 year investment. And yes, where is the "normal" takeover premium? I suspect this hasn't fully played out.
Enjoy the Summer and the move, doctrine.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

doctrine said:


> I've been making a lot of money from their acquisitions ... if I was a CSS shareholder, I would be upset. The stock was already trading at the takeover price - where is the classic 10-20% premium? The fact that CSS is trading higher than the takeover value of $15 means perhaps some people think the offer will be boosted by a few %.




chapeaux doctrine! this sounds like a perfect play, i'm happy for you!

re a higher offer emerging for contrans, this would depend on how CSS shares are held, would it not? if the shares are narrowly held, or especially if there is one majority controlling shareholder, then everything depends on how that/those big shareholders decide.

the news story says that contrans approached transforce with its own sell price already worked out. Transforce simply accepted, did not even re-negotiate the price. This suggests a very narrow CSS share ownership, with little likelihood that any other party can crowd in.

perhaps the big rise in tfi vs the much smaller rise in css is saying that the market thinks transforce got a helluva deal?


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

BNN Market Call Top Pick (July 29th, 2014) - CSS



> TransForce (TFI-T) has an offer in to buy this and it is board approved. Transforce stock went up 10%. It’s $0.30 accretive to earnings, which at a 15X multiple is worth almost $5 to Transforce stock. Everybody loves this deal, which by default means it is a bad deal for Contrans. This stock, at $15 with a 15X multiple on next year’s earnings, is an $18 stock without a takeover. This is at the economic stage where earnings will start to ramp up. Yield of 3.97%.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

much as i'm in favour of favouring a native son, i'm mindful of giant US trucker Swift (SWFT) whose share price was collapsing just as transforce was soaring with the contrans buyout announcement.

the issue with Swift is that it can't find enough qualified drivers. It's diverting capital into driver training programs. It's sold one fleet of trucks & parked others. 

it must be possible for these companies to hire either side of the border, surely the unions can't be that strong? if SWFT is having issues over lack of qualified drivers, is this syndrome showing up in canada or will it show up in canada to affect TFI?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> if SWFT is having issues over lack of qualified drivers, is this syndrome showing up in canada or will it show up in canada to affect TFI?


Yup, you hit the proverbial nail on the head.
This is indeed a huge issue for the Canadian trucking association as well.
All the 3 top Canadian trucking companies - TransForce, CSS, and Trimac are fully aware of this.

Here:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/c...may-face-inflection-point-2015-212343760.html

_*The Conference Board of Canada says the country is headed for a severe truck driver shortage because many drivers are set to retire and few candidates waiting in the wings.*

Edward Malysa, president and chief operating officer of Trimac Corp. says a shortage of drivers is the biggest challenge facing trucking industry during the next decade.

"We can see some pricing increases (but) I don't think that we're overly optimistic that tomorrow the prices are going to go up 10 per cent, because we can't get drivers," he said in an interview.

Its study released last March said Canada could experience a shortage of about 30,000 truck drivers by 2020._


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Good pts. I wonder how they plan on dealing with this expected shortage - foreign workers, better salaries?



> Canada's trucking industry is facing a labour shortage, creating new opportunities for foreign workers in this industry.





> The good news is that while the industry may be facing a severe labor shortage, it is expecting economic growth, which will lead to more competitive salaries and benefits for all prospective members of the workforce. The CTHRC predicts that over 150 000 new truck drivers will be hired by 2012 in order to address the increased demand, the aging workforce, and the job vacancies.





> Many members of the CTHRC are also vying for the government to have trucking labeled as a ‘skilled trade’, consequently making it even easier for recruiters to hire foreign workers. Thus, while the industry is undergoing a current workforce crisis, predictions for the future are looking fantastic, and everyone is encouraged to take serious consideration of an industry that will only prosper.


http://www.canadianimmigration.net/...gn-workers-encouraged-to-fill-the-demand.html


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

The barrier to solving a truck driver shortage is quite different than a skilled trade shortage...raise prices & pay better wages = many new truckers in a couple weeks.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Eder said:


> The barrier to solving a truck driver shortage is quite different than a skilled trade shortage...raise prices & pay better wages = many new truckers in a couple weeks.



idk Eder, some of those semis are worth close to $1M

if i were an owner i wouldn't want to send one across north america with somebody at the wheel who 2 weeks ago had never driven beyond his little hyundai ...


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

There are a couple of significant impediments to becoming a long haul trucker that precludes most able-bodied individuals from adopting this profession.

#1 - The time away from family - it is really hard to have a normal family life, or even a normal life, period.

#2 - The health issues involved with long-haul trucking, incl. exhaustion, chronic back & neck pain, etc.
In addition to physiological issues, there are serious mental health issues involved, such as depression, alcoholism, nicotine addiction, and so on.

#3 - The job hazards/risks. Esp. in the US, truckers find it hard to obtain medical insurance, life insurance premiums are higher, etc.
Even in Canada, many independent and small truckers routinely travel to the US without US health coverage.
Maybe larger trucking corporations like TransForce provide adequate continental coverage to their drivers, but the vast majority of small & independent trucking companies do not.
Their drivers are driving from Mexico to Canada without adequate medical coverage across all 3 countries.

My favorite in-town taxi driver is an ex long haul independent trucker, and I have heard many, many stories from him during our trips to & from the airport.
It is not at all surprising that there is a shortage of drivers, esp. long haul.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> My favorite in-town taxi driver is an ex long haul independent trucker, and I have heard many, many stories from him during our trips to & from the airport.


same in montreal. One large taxi company is owned & operated by new canadians all from one middle eastern country that shall remain nameless.

many of the drivers alternate between driving taxi & driving long haul trucks to & from mexico & southern USA. These are the refrigerated fruit & vegetable semis.

they're not kept too long at border crossings because the loads are perishable. Almost never do the border patrols make the drivers unload anything. As far as i know the border officers don't even look.

interesting things are being smuggled in the refrigerated produce trucks. Many of the tiny neighbourhood grocery stores are owned & operated by ex-nationals from the same country. The fresh fruit & veg - which actually are a kind of camouflage - do have to be disposed of, after all, so better to raise a few dollars by selling them as food at the end of the story.

this story has never appeared in the main media. You didn't read it here.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> same in montreal. One large taxi company is owned & operated by new canadians all from one middle eastern country that shall remain nameless.


This reminded me of another story...many years ago, one fine southern summer day, I found myself at the local DMV office in the quaint town of Fayetteville, Georgia to get my full driving license (equivalent to G).
While waiting in line, there was a big commotion inside the DMV office.
Upon asking around, it turned out that all the excitement was because the state police had just busted a fake commercial truck driving license printing gang.

Hundreds of commercial trucking licenses were issued to illegal immigrants, some of who had never previously driven even a car in the US, let alone an 18-wheeler.
Apparently, some of these drivers were already on the road for several weeks by the time the gang was busted.

The gang even ran a 1-day "truck driver training bootcamp" for these newly arrived immigrants.
Upon successful completion of the "training bootcamp", they were given a brand new, shiny, laminated commercial truck driving license...and off to the races they went...


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Oops...I thought we were talking about Trimac (I own lots)....they have top of the line trucks driven by mostly pro's and there is no long haul involved... that's why they get the best drivers that get to sleep at home with the family at nite. Pay drivers $30/hr and there's a long line up to sign up...


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

The trucking companies can hire the haul truck drivers from the mining industry as they lose their jobs to autonomous truck fleets, which are just starting to be explored in Canada. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fe8HxZ6hmLk Skip to 3:20

It shouldn't be too long before we see autonomous 18-wheeler truck fleets alongside our personal driverless cars.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Tfi International Inc (TFII-T) Quote - Press Release - The Globe and Mail 

WOW! UP 30%


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

londoncalling said:


> Tfi International Inc (TFII-T) Quote - Press Release - The Globe and Mail
> 
> WOW! UP 30%


Wow, I wasn't expecting that from a $8B stock.

Nice, congratulations to holders. I don't hold it unfortunately, but it's on my watchlist of top TSX stocks.


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