# Man!



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

down again today. is everybody else getting walloped in this market, or just me?


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## 6811 (Jan 1, 2013)

Just you...... not!


jargey3000 said:


> down again today. is everybody else getting walloped in this market, or just me?


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

I'm not because 99.999% of my assets are land and it is unaffected by this ridiculousness. The market is just eating itself now.


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## Video_Frank (Aug 2, 2013)

This is what markets do. It's NOTHING compared to 2008. Turn off the news and go for a walk. Hardly worth starting a thread over.


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## treva84 (Dec 9, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> down again today. is everybody else getting walloped in this market, or just me?


I bought WJA 2 weeks ago, and I'm already down 20% on this purchase! Some of my other holdings are down ~ 30%.

Honestly though I don't really care. Short term things are volatile, long term things will be golden, especially as I've been mindful of buying in at good valuations (although you could argue those good valuations just turned into great valuations - WJA is an example of this!).

I'm actually getting a bit annoyed with the financial forums these days; every hour it seems there's some new posting on new pessimistic or optimistic information on why tomorrow will be a bull or a bear day. I'm not planning on selling for decades, why should I trouble myself with the day to day annoyances when I know in the long term I'll be fine?

I agree with Video_Frank - we all need to turn off the news / forums and go for a walk (I'm about to go do that myself!)


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

Not that simple friend, the boomers are watching everything these days as they retire and it only takes a little hiccup in the market to set them back 5 years. Some will tolerate is, others wont and will simply get out what they can and walk away.

I can tell you if there is an event even remotely similar to 2008, thats gonna be the death knell for the market because it will take a long time to gain trust again.


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

Why did you decide to buy those stocks? Any reason in particular to buy at that time? Did they do anything special? Is there some reason you believed they should go up? Do you know anything about the company other than looking at a chart?

If you don't have good answers to those questions, then you're not investing, your gambling. 

If you have good answers to those questions, then believe in your answers and wait for the market to realize it's just being irrational, maybe increase your holdings in the mean time.


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## Video_Frank (Aug 2, 2013)

Then their asset allocation was wrong and they will pay the piper. Investors close to retirement should be holding enough non-equities that market fluctuations do not torpedo their retirement plans.


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

Video_Frank said:


> This is what markets do. It's NOTHING compared to 2008. Turn off the news and go for a walk. Hardly worth starting a thread over.


Thank you, someone who actually speaks the truth.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

I`m starting to think a person should just buy 2 rental properties when they are 25, have them paid off at 55 and collect that cheque for their life. 

This market is too manipulated, too volatile and too uncertain. A company you invested in for long term might not even be in business by the time you retire. Its been ruined by traders, central banks and automation.


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## Ag Driver (Dec 13, 2012)

Deleted


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

tygrus said:


> I`m starting to think a person should just buy 2 rental properties when they are 25, have them paid off at 55 and collect that cheque for their life.


First, it shouldn't take 30 years to pay off.
Next, it's not that easy to find rentals as the market is very overpriced and most property have no hope of ever cash flowing in the long run.
And finally, it's a work to own rentals, it's not a buy and forget about it kind of investment. Also, the work doesn't end when you turn 55, or 65, or 75...


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

In a down market everyone gets walloped in the short term.

It is hard to stay on plan at times like this and MUCH easier when everything goes up. I'm doing my best to keep my head down and stick with the plan:
1) Invest $500 every two weeks;
2) Invest all of my tax refund;
3) Rebalance to 25 x4 as necessary.

It's not easy staying on plan but those that can do it will (theoretically) be well rewarded.


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## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

So many people are still rejecting the idea of using TA to mitigate risks these days, considering we are living in a hi-tech era. By learning basis TA knowledge, it helps all of us to recognize risks so we can avoid getting stuck in the wrong direction. From below screenshot, we can easily see that everything is in red color which is a big NO-NO to invest in







.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

All those market mantras are just smoke. Use TA, look for value, buy when others are fearful, hold long term, stay diversified, rebalance etc. I dont buy them at all anymore. None of that means a hill of beans compared to what the fed does or does not do.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

A opposed to buy two rental properties, have bad tenants who trash one and lose the other one because the seller had a court judgement against them?


Either way ... there is no free lunch. If there was an easy way that guaranteed one a cheque for life, a lot of people, advisors and experts would be jumping all over it.


Note that I'm not saying RE or the market or bonds or whatever is all or nothing ... just that to be successful in any of them, one has to be prepared to do the work.


Cheers


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## wendi1 (Oct 2, 2013)

I would be happy if it was like 2008 - it took me only a year to get everything back to the pre-crash valuations.

I had some cash and bought at the bottom... mmm... bottom-feeding... so tasty...


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## Koogie (Dec 15, 2014)

Of course everyone is getting walloped. Even those people who are so stupid that they don't have any of those "darned risky stocks" but aren't quite sure where their pension money is invested.. :biggrin:

I tell you what it takes real stones to do. Keep buying. I've bought a bunch lately and I've burned through about half of my "dry powder" Now I'm getting nervous. Keep going or wait it out and see where the real bottom lies ? I think I'll do the latter but then I'll never be a private jet kind of guy..:upset:


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

i guess you haven't been through 08-09, this is nothing so far lol


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

If you pick your stocks wisely in the first place then I don't see why the market decline would stop anyone from continuing the purchases (especially those still in the accumulation phase). A lot of red in my portfolio right now but I was happy to invest in my core holdings when the stock prices were more expensive. The way I see it, I get to purchase more shares of the companies I like for the same money. IMO this is all a bunch of noise that will eventually pass - don't know when so I'm going to spare trying to time the market and continue purchasing as I save up some cash.


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## mordko (Jan 23, 2016)

Down 8% so far this year on my investment. Oh well... See what the rest of the year brings us.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Koogie said:


> I tell you what it takes real stones to do. Keep buying. I've bought a bunch lately and I've burned through about half of my "dry powder" Now I'm getting nervous. Keep going or wait it out and see where the real bottom lies ? I think I'll do the latter but then I'll never be a private jet kind of guy..:upset:


Not really - the trick is to IGNORE YOUR GUT BECAUSE YOUR GUT IS AN IDIOT.

Garth does a good job illustrating why staying invested (and even buying more when things are down - or rather buy regardless of what is happening) pays off in the long run. Or at least it has in all of stock market of history. History usually repeats itself so might as well keep on dumping cash in.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/02/11/deal-with-it-6/


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

Sort of ironic using an idiot to argue about listening to an idiot...


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Just a Guy said:


> Sort of ironic using an idiot to argue about listening to an idiot...


I don't agree with Garth about all things AND he certainly can be a major douche but the math checks out so whatchagonnado?


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## DollaWine (Aug 4, 2015)

Good time to buy in bulk, or keep waiting for more falls?


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## Koogie (Dec 15, 2014)

ROFL.. don't forget Garth is a failed politician who is now an "advisor"... I enjoy his blog to but would advise a pinch of salt. Lots of good advice but lots of hyperbole too.
Anyway, I am not a general day to day DCA'er. I have been a buyer lately. A big one (6 figures, not 4 figures) and I have had enough for a bit. I'm executing my plan and can now rest for a bit and see how it unfolds. Big picture wise, I don't need big "wins", only a predetermined single figure return. I can afford to wait and see where the bottom is and leave the rest of the funds in a HISA until then. And no, I don't expect to catch the bottom either. But I can afford to wait for the upswing. For those who can't or who DCA, absolutely keep buying. It is the best idea.


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## capricorn (Dec 3, 2013)

In my 25 stock portfolio, I am in the red on every single one except mawer balanced (approx 30% of portfolio), T, FTS and RCI. Many over 40% (VALE, RDS-B, COS etc.)
Not too worried because (1) I lucked out on buying some USD denominated stocks over last couple of years (2) don't intend to sell anything in next 10 years unless something skyrockets (3) still have 30% of assets in cash.
if S&P tanks big time, say half from here, I will be using my cash.
I do compulsively look at my stocks daily and feel bad seeing all the red. but, I have sold nothing in last 2 years. Bought some oil related last week. Not buying any more oil/gas related as I am already at 15% of my portfolio.
All said, enjoying the show. Unlike 2008, this time I have cash to deploy (and am aware) if opportunity comes.


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## capricorn (Dec 3, 2013)

"but, I have sold nothing in last 2 years. "
what I really meant was that I was not pressured to sell anything.
I was in couch potato around oct 2014 and did sell all the ETFs to move into individual stock based portfolio. that was one time rejig of the portfolio. so, at present at high level, mawer balanced (30%), cash 30%, rest individual equities.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

I don`t know. this market is making lower lows each week and thats not a good sign. I bought a few stocks when they hit the bottom of their range only to have it break through that mark a few days later each time. If this is a 2009 buying opportunity I wish there was a clear way to tell.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I have been investing in ETF's since they were iUnits and that wasn't yesterday. I have followed all of the advice (buy, hold, rebalance etc.) and I am still not rich and far from it.

In my next life, I will buy real estate instead of stocks. I will leave it to the rest of you to learn your own life's lessons.

All the best.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Real estate? Pfft! Next life I'm buying apple when it was $2.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

Belguy said:


> I have been investing in ETF's since they were iUnits and that wasn't yesterday. I have followed all of the advice (buy, hold, rebalance etc.) and I am still not rich and far from it.
> 
> In my next life, I will buy real estate instead of stocks. I will leave it to the rest of you to learn your own life's lessons.
> 
> All the best.


Someone in the other thread calculated the past 10 year return on the tsx as 3.44% so I totally believe you.

I think equities should be for income diversification but they need to be combined with other income streams.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Hasn't been that bad for me because I have been mostly in short term bonds for a little over a year now. The rest is in cash and then gold which has been doing well lately.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Something that stuck with me from one of the first investing books I read back in the seventies .... buying good stocks 30% to 40% off their highs covers a multitude of errors. The more time goes by the more I think he is right. Historically we have often gotten corrections or bear markets that big but not often bigger.


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## jdc (Feb 1, 2016)

Well, you might think it is bad, but beware of bottom fishing. Have a look at this chart:

http://schrts.co/hLn5mU

This is a very long term (20 year) weekly chart of the S&P 500, showing the 40 and 80 week moving averages. In the last two decades, the 40 has crossed below the 80 three times, the most recent being this week. Look to see what happened the other two times! Not saying that it is going to happen now, but this is a very scary picture.


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## Video_Frank (Aug 2, 2013)

jdc said:


> ...but this is a very scary picture.


Not if you're in the accumulation stage.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Exactly, one thing that you can take from that is yes, there are large corrections but they always seem to return to the relentless upwards climb.


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## jdc (Feb 1, 2016)

Video_Frank said:


> Not if you're in the accumulation stage.


Yeah, which I'm not. I'm just starting retirement. Taking a big hit like that right at the start of retirement may have a devastating impact on how long the nest egg would last.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

jdc said:


> Yeah, which I'm not. I'm just starting retirement. Taking a big hit like that right at the start of retirement may have a devastating impact on how long the nest egg would last.


Only if your risk allocation is way out of whack. 

If that's the case to quote my five year old: "that's what you get - don't be upset"


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

jargey3000 said:


> down again today. is everybody else getting walloped in this market, or just me?



Below is a table of my riskier stuff comparing year end 2013 to today. Some is risky because the particular companies are really not doing well currently, some is risky because it is a huge percentage of the portfolio.


Holdingyear end 1013todayACBpriceapprox 5 year highBBD.B15,80090,0002.190.835BTE033,7005.792.6050ECA300015,40010.794.9930HSE2530300015.5912.1030LRE0277,500.500.365MX3000380020.0536.2180NBD6400820017.8320.6435SU19000n/an/an/aTCK.B0
17,40010.266.26
50


In dollars, the above table represents a loss of over a half million dollars on about 1.3M dollars ACB. But if instead you count barrels of oil; tons of coal, copper, zinc; production capacity of facilities; desks, chairs, computers and pencils, intelligence of the people involved in the particular enterprises, I am way, way up. Maybe, just maybe one day, the valuation in dollars will rise to reflect something closer to past valuations.

Also the above was paid for in part with capital gains of other entities sold with an aggregate gain of about 1/4M, a fair bit of which was purchased circa 2008/2009 at low prices. All in all if every position above went to zero, it would wind the family net worth back to about double what it was in early 2009 when many thousands of people would have sold their losing positions and sat in GICs ever since. I would suggest that if every position above went to zero, I'd be on my backhoe in the back 40 digging a bunker and booby trapping the perimeter of the property, because society has failed.

I am being greedy when others are fearful. I might have to report down the road to the undoubtedly great delight of james4beach that I have lost it all ... but I might not too. In the short term, of key interest is whether LRE is worth zero or I manage to get out with $144,300 (@0.52/sh buy out). Anyhow, I cannot be accused of being an armchair investor, always researching, formulating theories, making predictions, telling others what they should do, preaching that stocks are bad, in general talking up and down all about investing ... without ever actually doing much of it.

hboy43


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

Don't worry, everything that was bad for the market yesterday is good for it today. Wall street corrected its previous correction and it's pretty sure it has it right this time.


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

hboy43 said:


> In dollars, the above table represents a loss of over a half million dollars on about 1.3M dollars ACB. But if instead you count barrels of oil; tons of coal, copper, zinc; production capacity of facilities; desks, chairs, computers and pencils, intelligence of the people involved in the particular enterprises, I am way, way up. Maybe, just maybe one day, the valuation in dollars will rise to reflect something closer to past valuations.


Anyhow, the statement above is not accurate, the table actually represents a loss of about $350K on ACB. I probably had in my head excluding long time holds MX and OSB (formerly NBD), which would still not have reached a half million, closer to $450K.

Anyhow, what a difference 3 weeks makes. About a quarter million dollars at close today compared to when I posted the table. I am still doing worse than the rest of you over the rear term period since all the chaos struck late 2014, but quite a bit less worse I suspect.

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

hboy43


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## atrp2biz (Sep 22, 2010)

One has to be completely emotionless when it comes to investing. My motto is, "it's never as bad as it seems--and it's never as good as it seems". If the markets go down--great. It makes accumulation cheaper. If the markets go up--great. My net worth goes up. Alternatively, you can be like nahc. If the markets go down--sh!t. My net worth goes down. If the markets go up--sh!t. It makes accumulation more expensive. JK!

In reality, we're quite blasé about our investments.


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

hboy43 said:


> But if instead you count barrels of oil; tons of coal, copper, zinc; production capacity of facilities; desks, chairs, computers and pencils, intelligence of the people involved in the particular enterprises, I am way, way up. Maybe, just maybe one day, the valuation in dollars will rise to reflect something closer to past valuations.


Here we sit exactly 3 weeks later and a mere 21 days has erased a year and a half of tears. My table, adjusted for 3 recent transactions, has gone from an aggregate loss of ~$350K to about $20K in the green.

On the 1.5 year period, I am still doing worse than most I suspect, but I seem to have momentum. Might not be dead last any more.

I am still a shitty investor as the win/loss ratio is likely < 40% for the recent stuff and likely still under 50% if we include the long held MX and OSB and BBD.B and ECA positions. Sure it will still be under 50% as all the long term BBD and ECA buys are under water, and most of the long term OSB (formerly symbol NBD) buys are under water. I do have a perfect record on MX though on the buy side, though all sales are at numbers lower than today's price.

My skill is mathematics: I know that $20,000 buys 1000 shares at $20/sh, and 5000 shares at $4. The mathematics of many investors is that $20,000 buys 1000 shares at $20, and selling 1000 at $4 gets $4000.

Everyone knows that 3 weeks and 1.5 years returns is all bullshit right? I am just trying to point out that at the end of the day, all you can do is have a good stab at buying low and selling high. What happens short term is pretty much luck based. Who would of thought that my sad table in 21 days would have such a stunning reversal of fortune? Certainly not me. My expectations were at some point years out I would eventually do well. And I would not be shocked if it reversed again in the next 3 weeks. The only number that counts is long term 10+ years and here I calculated about 10% 2 or 3 years ago, so probably about 9% now. Which is about 8% points for long term historical stock gains and dividends, and 1% point for good luck. The luck part referring to my brain wiring, not my particular transactions.

Are the knife wounds healing, or will they crack open again?

hboy43


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

jargey3000 said:


> down again today. is everybody else getting walloped in this market, or just me?



It`s like a crystal ball,throwing a dart

Do your best to pick a stock,when this is done and you still believe buy more or sell,consequence for both

Life is long if lucky,so play your cards as if you still have a number of years on the planet


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Hobby is the market and audio


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## rl1983 (Jun 17, 2015)

Bryston SST is one of the best


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

I have also 4bsst2 and 7bsst2

I am sitting on a C2500 and a C2300 

Nice to see that there is more to life

Been in the HI END audio for over 30 years ,it is my life,trading is more of a hobby

Listening to Bad Habits( The Monks) and maybe a beer(Cold)

LG


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## rl1983 (Jun 17, 2015)

Tri Amped? Or Bi-amped with a subwoofer? 

Hi End Audio is an obsession. I'm more into Pro Gear these days, I've bought and resold several microphones over the years.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

1980:
1. nice car. my sister (yes sister) had a '77 or'78 Corvette rag-top, which I was lucky enough to drive few summer nights!!!
2. pic looks like Middle Cove???. Not sure where u are right now, but it's like -13 windchill in Torbay today. (just thought I'd let you know)
3. Albums! don't mention LPs to me! we moved houses a couple years ago, and da wife "encouraged" me to get rid of a bunch of my LPs. I guy came & gave me about $75 for maybe 130 records? AS SOON AS he drove off in his truck, I looked at the money... and I thought..."Wow. He's just gone off with a big part of my life... and I got $75 f'in' bucks!!! Never got over that feeling. (oh well, still got all my dylan, neil & van records...)


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

jargey3000 said:


> 1980:
> 1. nice car. my sister (yes sister) had a '77 or'78 Corvette rag-top, which I was lucky enough to drive few summer nights!!!
> 2. pic looks like Middle Cove???. Not sure where u are right now, but it's like -13 windchill in Torbay today. (just thought I'd let you know)
> 3. Albums! don't mention LPs to me! we moved houses a couple years ago, and da wife "encouraged" me to get rid of a bunch of my LPs. I guy came & gave me about $75 for maybe 130 records? AS SOON AS he drove off in his truck, I looked at the money... and I thought..."Wow. He's just gone off with a big part of my life... and I got $75 f'in' bucks!!! Never got over that feeling. (oh well, still got all my dylan, neil & van records...)


Nice for him ,vinyl has gone up in $

LG


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## LongShorts (Feb 18, 2016)

Dragged this back to the top because it's funny....and also MAN! Rough morning for trading.....TSX went for a dip and took almost all of my equities down with it. Oh well, good time to add onto XIC, XIU I suppose.


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

tygrus said:


> I`m starting to think a person should just buy 2 rental properties when they are 25, have them paid off at 55 and collect that cheque for their life.
> 
> This market is too manipulated, too volatile and too uncertain. A company you invested in for long term might not even be in business by the time you retire. Its been ruined by traders, central banks and automation.


I have quite a bit of real estate and I have done extremely well with it but being a landlord is no panacea. The experience will hinge almost entirely on the quality of tenants. Because of this, we only have up scale rentals. When a tenant damages a property, the response should be to bring the property up to an even higher standard to attract a better person. This is a non intuitive response.

If you know what you're doing, real estate can run fairly smooth. 99.9% of emergency problems are plumbing related so I make sure the plumbing is up to a high standard. I swap the external hose bib for a frost free unit, so I don't have a mess to clean up when it's 40 below. Tenants will never shut off a hose bib in fall.

I'm happier with real estate than I am with market investments, however, real estate has it's limits. Every house brings liabilities and risk. A stock will not call you in the middle of the night when it can't flush the toilet. You should never have to cancel a vacation because of a stock. Also, real estate is self limiting. I wouldn't want to own more than 5 properties without having a trusted employee.

The slightly non-obvious aspect of real estate is that it will generate cash flow that will need to be managed. A significant portion of the money I have in the markets comes from real estate. As money comes in, I invest it in various things. It has worked out extremely well.

If you only want a single investment, it should probably be stocks. If you are OK with multiple investments, real estate is fantastic but it isn't for everyone. I make money because I can fix or build anything. My father was a tradesman and I worked the trades for years before moving into a white collar job. That is a massive help.

As for the ominous warnings about an imminent real estate collapse that permeate these forums, I think they are ridiculous. Sure, a bubble could burst. It is entirely possible and plausible. But I'm getting toward retirement age and the number of real estate crashes that have happened in my lifetime (in my market) is exactly zero; the number of stock market crashes is considerably higher. lol!


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## mordko (Jan 23, 2016)

TomB19 said:


> As for the ominous warnings about an imminent real estate collapse that permeate these forums, I think they are ridiculous. Sure, a bubble could burst. It is entirely possible and plausible. But I'm getting toward retirement age and the number of real estate crashes that have happened in my lifetime (in my market) is exactly zero; the number of stock market crashes is considerably higher. lol!


...And past performance guarantees future performance.


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

If TOMB19 has investment properties in Saskatchewan he is obviously less exposed to a real estate crash in comparison to Toronto or Vancouver


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

I always like the warnings about "tenants calling in the middle of the night because the toilet won't flush"...

Tell me, how many people use their toilets in the middle of the night in the first place? 

Tom talks about never having seen a real estate crash in his lifetime (of course he's based in Saskatchewan where real estate was depressed for decades), so he must be very young (especially to be retiring), or missed Alberta during the 80's and 90's (or in the past year). There have been corrections across the country, southern Ontario when the plants shut down, BC when the lumber industry and mining took a hit...the maritimes when the fishing industry collapsed. 

Funny how these things "never happened", and the likelihood of them happened is "exaggerated". Sure, we haven't had a Canada wide meltdown, and Vancouver and Toronto have been on a long tear, but Canada is a big place...much bigger than your own back yard.

Btw, high end rentals in Saskatchewan isn't quite the same, in terms of cost, as other places.


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

hboy43 said:


> Below is a table of my riskier stuff comparing year end 2013 to today. Some is risky because the particular companies are really not doing well currently, some is risky because it is a huge percentage of the portfolio.
> 
> 
> Holdingyear end 1013todayACBpriceapprox 5 year highBBD.B15,80090,0002.190.835BTE033,7005.792.6050ECA300015,40010.794.9930HSE2530300015.5912.1030LRE0277,500.500.365MX3000380020.0536.2180NBD6400820017.8320.6435SU19000n/an/an/aTCK.B0
> ...


Yup. The static table above has swung from about -$350K to about +$410K. Including subsequent purchases and sales among that set, the holdings are at about +$460K.

This is such a stunning reversal in such a short time, that my commenting now perhaps cannot be seen as anything but a gloat. So be it if that is the way it is taken. The original post by the same measure must surely be a -gloat, leaving me at neutral I think. 

The thing is I think there is more truth about investing in my few dozen highly personal posts a year than there is on some others that post hundreds of time a year of frankly mostly nonsense:

Buy lowish, sell highish. One can't buy absolutely low and sell absolutely high, but that is OK, a good approximation works really well too.

Stocks really are for the long term, though I would not say you need 20 years in order to have guaranteed success (as one prominent member insists with great regularity), probably 5 will do if you are intelligent about it (that is when things drop like a stone, be a buyer). 

I have had some positions almost 20 years now, and my average holding time is usually in the range of 5 to 10 years. Your times with a particular investment should far exceed the time with your first boy(girl)friend.

It is OK to be in a loss situation for a very long time in an individual position as well as the entire portfolio.

Likely 40% of buys will lose money in the short term, where short term is about 5-10 years. Even this lousy record can return much better than fixed income.

Ignore volatility, or better yet use it to your advantage, it really is a feature, not a bug.

Why strip off a 10 or 20% profit over a few weeks or months when if you hold for years you can get 3 figures? My >30 (33 maybe?) year average transactions per year is likely 8 over all my and my wife's accounts. I just shake my head when I read that someone does hundreds of transactions a year. What a great way to make money for the broker.

Think about the forest, not the trees. If you make 10% on average, does it really matter if you got there carrying a (large even) loss position or two?

Why do so many investors have as an actual or implied goal of never making a transaction that loses money? Sure GICs paying 2% never lose, but they never gain either. Some will sell automatically if a stock drops say 10%. This line of thinking can really kill your long term results. The trading range of even the most stable stock, ie utilities and banks have a 20 or 30% annual trading range most years. (say TRP from memory something like $42-$62, or RY $61-$82) This is the nature of stocks. Complaining about a 10% drop is tantamount to complaining that water is wet. It is in a stock's nature. 

I don't spend much time researching. I don't have to because most of what I own I have owned for years. Most of my transactions are adding to and subtracting from existing positions as opportunities arise and balancing need to be done. 5 of the 8 in the table I owned going back at least 5 years, and the oldest 3 average something like 12 or 14 years.

Simple works just fine. I have never done an option transaction. I have never sold short. I don't have a system or a rule set, I don't back test a bunch of things. I don't do annual IRR calculations, I just do a quick estimate once in a while.* I don't even do much internationally, as many of my Canadian names have international operations. Successful investing does not need to be anywhere near as complicated as some make it out to be. I don't see the point of someone "playing" with these sorts of various unnecessary complications and at the same time being 75 or 90% in fixed income, yet there are some who do this.

Investing is mostly a struggle of reason over emotion, and if you can in your head make reason prevail, you are 90% the way there. Investing is mostly a task of psychology and time. If you can't make reason prevail, ignore all the above, I have nothing for you.

hboy54

* Really, what am I or anyone else going to do differently between an estimate of a one year return of 10% vs actual IRR of 9.37%?


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## canew90 (Jul 13, 2016)

jargey3000 said:


> down again today. is everybody else getting walloped in this market, or just me?


Stopped worrying about the price of are holdings years ago. Buy for the long term and hold for the growing income, you'll sleep better.


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