# Liquor Stores N.A (LIQ.TO)



## sam (Mar 16, 2012)

Anyone know whats up with LIQ lately? It's gone down a lot !!


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

I wouldn't say it's gone down a lot. 

Maybe just because of the recent results. They seem mediocre to me.
It also earned $0.82 yet paid out $1.08

They are adding new stores and still growing so it could be a good opportunity to add to your holdings as well. It is one that I am watching.


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## Echo (Apr 1, 2011)

The five day chart looks a lot worse than the five year chart. I bought this one at $11.61 so this is just a little blip on the radar.


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## Andrej (Feb 25, 2010)

I was in around 11 and out around 14 but wish I had stayed with it. Very tempting to jump in again. I seem to like anything Canadian that makes or sells booze- Like BRB.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

I hold a small position, just enough to DRIP dividend every months and also was thinking about adding shares


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## fersure (Apr 19, 2009)

They really need to hire a replacement CEO with retail experience in the US and fast.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

wonder why it's going down so hard...


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## jamesbe (May 8, 2010)

Analyst saying $17 instead of $19... irrational drop.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

The chart doesn't look great, it's been in a downward trend since the end of July of 2012. I've been watching this one for a while. I think it's getting hit a little bit harder of late secondary to interest rates. It also appears to have missed on expectations. If it dips below $15 I was going to consider an entry point somewhere around the 14 dollar mark. But, I may find better opportunities elsewhere. The dividend appears safe...


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## Canuck (Mar 13, 2012)

Synergy said:


> The chart doesn't look great, it's been in a downward trend since the end of July of 2012. I've been watching this one for a while. I think it's getting hit a little bit harder of late secondary to interest rates. It also appears to have missed on expectations. If it dips below $15 I was going to consider an entry point somewhere around the 14 dollar mark. But, I may find better opportunities elsewhere. The dividend appears safe...


Why do you say the dividend appears safe? I might just buy this one today


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

This one has been on my watch list for a while. 

I'm not so sure about the dividend. 

I had a quick look at the results and 6 month diluted earnings of $0.23 agains a dividend payout of $0.27 and looking at the financial statements you can see the payout is continually above earnings. This is why I am holding back on this one. Although it does seem to be covered on a cash basis. This leaves them with little room for growth unless they take on more debt or issue equity.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Canuck said:


> Why do you say the dividend appears safe? I might just buy this one today


cash flow looks solid despite a decrease in US same store sales in Q2...


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Do some homework on this one before you jump in - 2012 annual report.

http://liquorstoresgp.ca/Portals/Investors/Liquor Stores - 2012 Annual Report.pdf


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Been waiting for EPS to rise above dividends for a long time on this company; a couple bad quarters is one thing but it's been a few years. It's nice to see Q2 EPS up over last year but the last six months are still down despite higher revenues - and a payout ratio of 174% over the last six months is just too much for me.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

doctrine said:


> Been waiting for EPS to rise above dividends for a long time on this company; a couple bad quarters is one thing but it's been a few years. It's nice to see Q2 EPS up over last year but the last six months are still down despite higher revenues - and a payout ratio of 174% over the last six months is just too much for me.


Should one not use the companies financial statements and cash from operations to come up with the payout ratio? The ratio looks to me to be slightly north of 80%. I still don't see much value in the stock unless it trades closer to $14.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

In the long run, a dividend payout > 100% of net earnings means it's coming out of book value somewhere. On a pure P/E basis, it's 20, which is high for a company with 5% or less revenue growth. On that basis, they'd have to be close to $12 a share. That's just my own investing style.. I'd prefer my high yielding companies to maintain book value, but someone who doesn't mind converting some book value to dividends would be okay here, but again with a P/E of 20 and that is a earnings yield of 5%. I'm not sure which aspect of their book they're slowly converting to dividends, you'd have to look really close at the financials.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Earlier this year I recall book value being around $13.80...


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Honestly it's not that bad for this company, it's just my own preference to see dividends>EPS before jumping in although I'll keep an eye on this; certainly, it's a much better buy at $15.60 than the 52 week high of $20, which was getting overpriced. I just don't like the 6 month EPS at $0.29 a share, down from $0.31 a share in the year previous. If it hits book value then it would be a little safer.


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

I make the book value to be around $11.85 if you take out the intangibles. I agree with you both that at the current level there just doesn't seem to be enough value, even if they do maintain the dividend.

From 2010 - 2011 there was a big jump in the issued number of shares although the dilution has been around 1% 2011-12 and 12-13

Number of shares in issue:
June 2010 - 18527572
June 2011 - 22606987
June 2012 - 22867810
June 2013 - 23040093

Then in terms of debt they Redeemed $50,000,000 debentures issued in 2007 and replaced this by an issue of $67,500,000 at 5.85% in April 2012 A sign of funding debt with increased debt. 

The Long term debt levels have jumped up and down over the years but taking 2008 to present the trend is up and works out to an annualised increase of 24%

Gross profit across the same period has seen an annualised increase of roughly 6.2%


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Thanks for the additional information liquidf. I think I'm going to pass on this one for now. In case anyone's interested, there was a comment on BNN yesterday from Peter Hodson.

"This is one you just buy for income, not growth. On a cash flow basis, the dividend is quite secure. The main problem is that there is a bit of a competitive shift in the US. Some of the states that they are operating in, the states around them have changed their liquor laws be a little bit more flexible. Same-store sales dropped 3% in the last quarter, which was kind of worrisome to the market. Sales did increase so it’s not a total disaster.".


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## Canuck (Mar 13, 2012)

Good info you guys, thanks!

I ended up doubling my position yesterday, which so far looks like it was a smart move, at least if I get out now my loss won't be too bad at all. I'll probably get out today and look for something a little safer.


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## Echo (Apr 1, 2011)

Hopefully they can come up with some cash to start moving into Saskatchewan - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2013/04/30/saskatoon-grocery-liquor.html


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

There were a talks in Ontario to cancel LCBO monopoly... imho it can be good for LIQ


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## Echo (Apr 1, 2011)

The new CEO is from GolfTown USA. Seems to be shaking things up a bit, getting away from private labels and working more with the big brands rather than alienating them.


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## PuckiTwo (Oct 26, 2011)

Does anybody know why this is up this morning over 3%? There doesn't seem to be any news. I hold this with a loss in my TFSA, thinking to get rid of it. Negative earnings outlook.


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## Josh (Jan 15, 2014)

Down 9.41% today after news about BC gov putting forward the sale of Liquor in Grocery stores…. Not good news for me, I got in at $18 then bought more at $15. I'm debating If I should add more if the price hits $10….


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## cdnceo (Apr 3, 2012)

Rocked today, -10.11%
Yield 8.4% now

British Columbia Liquor Policy Review Report Released, Recommendations Include Liquor Sales in Grocery Stores
http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140203-905327.html


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

Buying opportunity or is this the beginning of the end?


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

Payout is over 100%. Same store sales have been stagnant - competition in the states is becoming fierce and there's too much regulation in Canada. The company could turn around but not a buying opportunity yet IMO.


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

$12.85 now and at nearly the 52 week low. When and where is the bottom?


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Wondering the same thing, the bottom. I suspect it will go to $11. Just a guess. If so, I will be buying there.


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

Interesting name, say, about 3 years ago. I agree with what Canadian said in that there are too many regulations and issues with same store sales. There seems to be very little growth to this company. You have to wonder about the sustainability of the dividend, which it has not grown. Unless people need income that badly, there are likely better names out there that have potential for capital appreciation and dividend growth.


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

$12.10, now at 52 week low.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

I'm glad I stayed away from this one so far...


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Synergy said:


> I'm glad I stayed away from this one so far...


me too.
I'm wondering whether all of the news regarding grocery stores & other corner stores etc being permitted to sell alcoholic beverages is partly responsible for the drop. Could it be that any monopoly that Liquour stores have is being undone?
?


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

Synergy said:


> I'm glad I stayed away from this one so far...


Haha same. I evaluated this company back in the ~$16 range. I didn't feel confident about the growth prospects so I put it on the back burner.



dubmac said:


> I'm wondering whether all of the news regarding grocery stores & other corner stores etc being permitted to sell alcoholic beverages is partly responsible for the drop. Could it be that any monopoly that Liquour stores have is being undone?


It could be a factor but I don't think it's the largest or only reason. The only place I see the company being able to make any decent money is Alberta - it's the only province with complete privatization of alcoholic beverages. Even then, there is a lot of government restriction and increasing competition. BC is worse for restriction. The US has less restrictions, but LIQ operates mostly in counties that lifted dry status not all too long ago and there's a lot more price competition.

What is a company to do to progress?


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Canadian said:


> What is a company to do to progress?


Cut the dividend..I guess...The PE is very high - in the 9% range!


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

dubmac said:


> Cut the dividend..I guess...


Lagging same stores growth, limited growth prospects, and _now_ no juicy dividend? [I do predict a cut]

That's why I likely won't buy this stock.


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

This was always my problem with this stock. On the surface it seems like a no brainer pick. Recession proof business, easy to understand and it makes a lot of money. The problem is that this business use to be done by monopoly. In Ontario, where I live, the LCBO is run by the government. Every time I hear calls for more competition (usually from convenience stores and grocery stores) I always laugh because there is no way the Ontario government is going to crush the value of their liquor store business by opening everything up to competition. That would be stupid and so far I have not been proven wrong.

Now once you spin off that business to a private entity, like in the case of this stock, it should not be long before those same government politicians, that did not like the idea of open competition before, will now start to see the true merits of it. Unfortuneately for investors, if the monopoly goes away, so will most of the profit. 

In summary, this stock was dead the day it went public and so far nothing has changed except a little more realization to this fact, by the investing public.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Comments from stockchase - BNN


> Had a tough couple of years. Active in the states and some of the surrounding states have changed rules so people didn’t have to cross state lines to get liquor. BC just announced they were going to offer liquor in grocery stores. Dividend is okay but wouldn’t use the word “safe”. Same-store sales growth is nonexistent and probably going into decline this year. He rates it a “very high risk” income stock. 9% dividend.


Looks like BC have made some recent decisions that may have had some impact on LIQ.


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

I think the best shareholders can hope for at this point is LIQ being acquired by a bigger player. Competitive industries like this one [I'm talking more competitive in the US] tend to consolidate eventually and I don't think LIQ is large enough to be buying much out there.


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## jamesbe (May 8, 2010)

I've been worried about this stock for about 6 months. I should have sold then when I had a feeling. If I sold today after the dividends I break even. Not bad I guess.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

LIQ's advantage are its liquor licenses. They depend on government regulations. Margins aren't as great as you might think; taxes are what governments care about, and if they think they can get more taxes with more liberal liquor laws, then they're going to go that way. Take that government protection away all, and LIQ owns some store shelves with liquor bottles on them - not much of a "moat" or even industry-specific knowledge backing it up. 

If you want to be in this business, better to be with a producer than a distributor. Like Andrew Peller (ADW.A), or Corby Spirits and Wines (CSW.B). Lower dividends, yes, but far more solid dividends with dividend growth potential.


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## Echo (Apr 1, 2011)

At the end of the day we're talking about a recommendation that, if it gets implemented in BC, will affect 14% of their total retail stores. Hardly a death knell for the company.


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

doctrine said:


> taxes are what governments care about, and if they think they can get more taxes with more liberal liquor laws, then they're going to go that way.


I agree with this idea but the reality is that many of our governments still embody a draconian way of thinking. Furthermore, if privatization is supposed to lead to more competition, helping consumers with prices and options, and as well as governments with increased tax revenue, one would think it shouldn't be _too_ difficult for a new entrant to get a liquor license. If this is so, LIQ really has no advantage.


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## Killer Z (Oct 25, 2013)

This one might be flirting with a new 5 year low (< 9.66/share) before this month is through.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

I believe the most important factor with respect to this stock is the long-term trend of people drinking less. Just do a Google search of US/Canada alcohol consumption over time and check out the charts. Not something you want to own.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

CPA Candidate said:


> I believe the most important factor with respect to this stock is the long-term trend of people drinking less. Just do a Google search of US/Canada alcohol consumption over time and check out the charts. Not something you want to own.


DOn't know about charts , but we drink more every year  My son 1st year University Laurier/Waterloo and alcohol consumption over there is huge


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Too funny gibor. I know my friends and I could have bought a car, in cash, with the amount of money we spent on booze in university. Depressing thought...


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

http://ca.shine.yahoo.com/blogs/shi...more-alcohol-rest-world-claims-185457109.html


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## fersure (Apr 19, 2009)

doctrine said:


> *LIQ's advantage are its liquor licenses. They depend on government regulations. *


As Doctrine notes -the licences are key. Despite the BC Liberals absolute cock-up of liquor privatization, LIQ still holds a large number of licences. In order for grocery stores to sell liquor in store, they will need to acquire an existing licence. While no-one in this province should trust Christy Clark as far as you can throw her, she has stated that there will be no new licences to accomodate an expansion to grocery stores.

Say I'm Jimmy Pattison and I want to put a liquor stores in my Save-on-Foods/Pricesmart/Coopers empire. The easiest way will be buy out Liquor Stores BC licences and transfer them to the nearest grocery store (subject to local zoning regulations that limit the number of licences in a geographic area or establish minimum distances away from schools). In several instances, LIQ already operates a store in a plaza occupied by a Pattison grocery store (e.g. the Liquor Barn store in Kamloops is next door to Coopers). Coopers remodels its store by removing a deli or bakery - in its place, a boozery is added.

Personally, I sold LIQ as soon as BC's Liquor Sales review was announced. Christy Clark is a duplicitous twit has no problem burning her allies - and Liquor Stores and other private sellers were some of the BC Liberals biggest allies. I want no part of any BC industry where she or Rich Coleman have the ability to stick in their grimy little hands and destroy shareholder equity.:chargrined:


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

CPA Candidate said:


> I believe the most important factor with respect to this stock is the long-term trend of people drinking less. Just do a Google search of US/Canada alcohol consumption over time and check out the charts. Not something you want to own.


That seems hard to believe. According to what I've seen on Stats Can, sales / consumption appear to be trending upwards (2008-2012) However, the proportion of beer to wine sales have changed - people drinking more wine and less beer.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

After on Mar 7, LIQ published actual earnings of C$0.34, a positive surprise of +6.25% (after 4 or 5 negative Qs in the row), I was thinking LIQ will rebound a bit, but it dropped today amost 6% to 52 weeks low.... What happened again?


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

gibor said:


> After on Mar 7, LIQ published actual earnings of C$0.34, a positive surprise of +6.25% (after 4 or 5 negative Qs in the row), I was thinking LIQ will rebound a bit, but it dropped today amost 6% to 52 weeks low.... What happened again?


Going from the annual filing it's currently trading at a P/E of almost 24 and paying out 2.2* earnings as dividends. I guess the market is expecting a dividend cut. Where is the growth to support a multiple of 24?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

liquidfinance said:


> Going from the annual filing it's currently trading at a P/E of almost 24 and paying out 2.2* earnings as dividends. I guess the market is expecting a dividend cut. Where is the growth to support a multiple of 24?


Actually I checked TRI report and Trailing P/E is 10 and forward P/E 14.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Dividend cut on the way...approaching 9% yield. Not sustainable just like TA.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

> Actually I checked TRI report and Trailing P/E is 10 and forward P/E 14.


TRI? I checked their annual statements. They reported EPS of $0.49, down from $0.82 a year before, which is a firm trailing P/E of 23.7. They paid out $1.08 in dividends, giving a trailing payout ratio of 220%. There was a subsequent decrease in book value year over year. 

In fact, they have $318M of intangibles and book values on the asset sheet versus $312M in shareholder value and $270 in market cap - this is a really bad sign imo.

http://www.liquorstoresgp.ca/Portal...ear End 2013 Financial Statements - FINAL.pdf


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Book value of around -$0.38 a share.

Gibor..What is the TRI report? Why would you believe that over the figure you can work out for yourself from the most recent audited financial statements?


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

TRI - Thompson Reuters Corp Report.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Synergy said:


> TRI - Thompson Reuters Corp Report.


Yes, Thompson Reuters just today published trailing P/E 16 and Forward P/E 13.4, TDDI and CIBC IE have similar numbers.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

LIQ dropped today 10% ... even though earning results were expected....


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I didn't see anything in the report that would indicate a 10% drop in share price. what gives?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> I didn't see anything in the report that would indicate a 10% drop in share price. what gives?


Same here .... When I saw 10% drop, I suspected that they cut dividends ... but situation is not worse than last year


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Perhaps it is just more oil price recovery speculation


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> Perhaps it is just more oil price recovery speculation


LIQ is very indirectly related to oil  and worse economics, people drink more 
I'm just not sure if I want to add to my LIQ position....


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## Agrivar (Jun 15, 2010)

Dropped another 10% so far today...


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com//glo...es-tank-in-wake-of-oil-slump/article27179935/


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## livewell (Dec 1, 2013)

The LIQ yield is now over 11%. I doubt that is sustainable. In the liquor industry I prefer the distiller Corby Spirits and Wines CSW - dividend is "only" 4.2% but with ~10% dividend growth over last 10 years, and they have the nice habit of returning profits with occasional juicy special dividends (Q1 this year and before in 2012 and 2013). Seems to be a well run company.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

CSW also has normally either very low or basically no debt, whereas LIQ has debt issues. Debt is killer for high yield companies. CSW owns great brands and will sell alcohol to any liquor store (LIQ or otherwise).


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Corby would make a nice fit inside the TFSA in 2016. LIQ yield is unsustainable @ 10% now. 50% haircut must be coming soon.


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## amack081 (Jun 23, 2015)

My Own Advisor said:


> Corby would make a nice fit inside the TFSA in 2016. LIQ yield is unsustainable @ 10% now. 50% haircut must be coming soon.


I'm curious as to why you think Corby is a nice fit inside a TFSA in 2016.
To me, I find that Corby's payout ratio is also quite high, and that relative to LIQ its valuation ratios are quite high. I don't mind paying more for a stronger balance sheet and healthier margin but I'm curious about your statement.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

If you're looking at that sector, I think it's a better call with CSW than LIQ, that's all. Owning LIQ is chasing yield. I also prefer mostly CDN stocks that pay dividends inside the TFSA vs. non-registered if I can. It is also approaching 52-week low with is good for buyers. 

Are there better stocks to own? More established dividend payers? Yes, I think so but if you want some action in this sector this could be a decent fit. That's all 

Not to get too off topic, but not sure what to put inside my TFSA for 2016. I typically hold CDN stocks but I'm tempted to hold RDS.B.


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## livewell (Dec 1, 2013)

I don't know if Corby is a good buy today, but likely not a bad buy for some. Their dividend payout ratio is a bit high (I have it calculated as 106% but I have seen higher numbers published) and their P/E is relatively high today ~25. They have had fairly flat sales and need a quarter or two with some decent growth. 

On the plus side they have great margins (Gross margins in the 80% range) no/negligible debt, a very good line of brands (Wisers, Lambs, Absolute, Jacobs Creek etc.) and their share price is already down a lot this year. I think there is always a possibility of a consolidation buy-out from a big player like Diageo etc. at some point. I have owned this for about 5 years and am not planning on adding or reducing my position. It has not been a star (Or a dud) but has been a steady income provider. 

One other (Mostly negative) thing about CSW is they have two shares CSW.A & CSW.B (.B are non-voting) neither have much trade volume.


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## amack081 (Jun 23, 2015)

Looks like another drop today. Approaching its 52 week low. Dividend yield is now at 12%. As mentioned before, it would seem very likely that a dividend cut is likely. 

Also for the record, many of Oil & Gas companies in Alberta shut down in the second week of December due to do health and safety/maintenance/sanitation. This may further affect LIQ.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

jacofan said:


> OT I know but it's a terrible idea tax wise to do the above.


I'm not so sure, I'm trying to minimize my taxes payable now while working.


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## OurBigFatWallet (Jan 20, 2014)

I think he's referring to adding div stocks in the TFSA (2016) vs a non registered (taxable) account


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

jacofan said:


> If that's the case then you are absolutely making the wrong choice in putting CDN dividend payers in your TSFA.
> 
> CDN dividends get taxed at a lower rate so best to have them in a taxable acct.
> 
> The gov't will appreciate your selection though.


Tax at a lower rate is still tax vs tax free in the tfsa so how could it be better to have them in a taxable account? Personal situations will vary depending on financial standing but it's hardly a bad choice.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

The fundamentals just aren't great. LIQ actually has more goodwill on the balance sheet than market capitalization. Even after diluting shareholders with a $45M issuance last year (at $14-15 mind you), they still have high debt - which has subsequently increased already by $30M since raising capital. This is basically equal to the dividend - meaning they are paying the dividend out of debt, not earnings. The underlying business is somewhat profitable, but it is being dwarfed by $40M of dividends per year.

Prediction: a future news release, coming very soon, titled "In order to better balance capital allocations and enhance shareholder value........dividend cut.". This dividend hasn't been sustainable for years and years, and the only thing saving it was diluting shareholders, which is now running out.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Does LIQ would be able to sell in their stores marijuana starting Jul 1?


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Price jumped 19% on today's announcement. For those that don't follow LIQ went through a name change since 2018 and now goes by the ticker symbol CLIQ

Alcanna Inc. and YSS Corp. Announce Combination of Cannabis Retail Businesses to Form Nova Cannabis Inc. an... (tmx.com)


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I don't get it ...in Alberta & BC there's a cannabis shop every block...many have gone tits up already. Is the demand there to support so many outlets as well as my and your neighbour undercutting them? Are edibles that big a deal?

Of course I don't get Tesla or Shopify either.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

The latest offer from Sundial for Alcanna CLIQ Sundial Growers and Alcanna Inc. Announce the Agreement to Revised Consideration Under the Proposed Plan of... (tmx.com). vs. the previous offer
Alcanna Inc. Announces Filing of Management Information Circular for Proposed Plan of Arrangement with Sund... (tmx.com) in November. Share price of both companies is currently lower than it was in November. A quick read of the posts from 2014 show the dangers of owning a stock with an unsustainable payout ratios.


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