# Is this it?



## pwm (Jan 19, 2012)

I've been hoarding cash since last year waiting for the widely predicted correction that hasn't happened yet. The TSX is down over 2% in the last 2 days. Is this the start of it?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

pwm said:


> I've been hoarding cash since last year waiting for the widely predicted correction that hasn't happened yet. The TSX is down over 2% in the last 2 days. Is this the start of it?


No one wii tell you.... and what is your paln? When are starting to buy?


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## SkyFall (Jun 19, 2012)

pretty hard to say


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## cashinstinct (Apr 4, 2009)

Depending since when last year you are hoarding cash, the investments would probably be worth more now, even considering the small decrease of yesterday/today.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Don't cry for me Argentina
Russia
MENA...........


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

10% is a real correction, and usually takes a couple weeks to get there, based on my past observations.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

pwm said:


> I've been hoarding cash since last year waiting for the widely predicted correction that hasn't happened yet. The TSX is down over 2% in the last 2 days. Is this the start of it?


We're still up 20% YTD, a swing of a few % isn't unusual and shouldn't be unexpected.
Lots of talking heads say we're in for trouble.

I doubt it, in any case my core holdings have cash and buyback plans, so no matter what I do personally, my investments are still buying.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Just watch to see if the 50 day ma drops below the 200 day ma, then maybe ... or not.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

@pwm, similar to you, I was doing some selling at the end of 2013 (as I felt the markets were getting a little ahead of itself) and am also sitting on some cash. Looking at 2014 year-to-date, that portion of cash has missed out on the S&P500 +7% and TSX Comp +12% gains.

Even though that cash portion (approx 30%) of my portfolio has missed out on some gains, I don't regret doing it.
Doing it made me feel more comfortable. i.e. sleep at night.

I'm currently looking for opportunities in stocks where I see value. A market drop would provide further opportunities. 

As *Huey Lewis* once wondered, we will see *If This Is It*.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Nice call avrex on the old school! 

I'd be very happy with a >10% correction. I'm saving funds for more buys this fall. Likely need about $5k saved up to make any significant purchase.


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## pwm (Jan 19, 2012)

I'm usually 100% invested, but this strategy caused me to be caught flat footed in 08/09 without readily available cash to buy at the ridicules prices at that time. Last year I decided to start accumulating some cash so that situation wouldn't happen again. I'm still waiting for a pullback, as are many others. My cash is in an HISA and TDB8150, about 4% of my total invested NAV. I'm still adding new money as dividends come in. It's not a bad strategy to have some available cash just as any prudent fund manager would do.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

pwm said:


> I'm usually 100% invested, but this strategy caused me to be caught flat footed in 08/09 without readily available cash to buy at the ridicules prices at that time. Last year I decided to start accumulating some cash so that situation wouldn't happen again. I'm still waiting for a pullback, as are many others. My cash is in an HISA and TDB8150, about 4% of my total invested NAV. I'm still adding new money as dividends come in. It's not a bad strategy to have some available cash just as any prudent fund manager would do.


I'm just don't understand how you determine "ridicules prices"? When are you starting to buy? On what parameters are you looking? % declined, P/E, yield, SMA ....?


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

pwm said:


> I'm usually 100% invested, but this strategy caused me to be caught flat footed in 08/09 without readily available cash to buy at the ridicules prices at that time. Last year I decided to start accumulating some cash so that situation wouldn't happen again. I'm still waiting for a pullback, as are many others. My cash is in an HISA and TDB8150, about 4% of my total invested NAV. I'm still adding new money as dividends come in. It's not a bad strategy to have some available cash just as any prudent fund manager would do.


why not use some margin when 08/09 happens? I mean, your cash is loosing 2-5% when it's not invested and you can wait forever...


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Is this it? Hope so... as per usual, sitting on too much cash. Looking for opportunity to deploy some.


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## Jaberwock (Aug 22, 2012)

If I could answer you question, I would be a very rich man by now.

Consider this - If you have been hoarding cash only since the beginning of July, you have still lost money compared to where you would be had you been fully invested. Today's slump hasn't even wiped out one month of gains.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

One month? The TSX hasn't been this low since 21 July.


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## Islenska (May 4, 2011)

Never understand the cash idea esp when you can borrow cash at 3% on margin and cover costs pretty much with dividends

So as long as you have margin room you can take advantage of the stocks that are on your "to buy" list

But of course be prudent and ease into some stuff.

P.S. Don't think this much of a correction or the start of 08


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## pwm (Jan 19, 2012)

Yes, I understand borrowing to invest. I've done it before, and will do it again. I can take money from my LOC at 4%, buy a security that pays 5%, and the interest goes on my schedule 4 and then comes straight off my taxable income. I did so in the spring of 2009. That's how the rich get richer. What's not to like. 

What I really meant to say in my OP was that I can't see any bargains now, most indexes are at all time highs, and as a result my cash on hand has been building. I'd like to see prices drop by at least 10% before I buy more of anything.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

pwm said:


> Yes, I understand borrowing to invest. I've done it before, and will do it again. I can take money from my LOC at 4%, buy a security that pays 5%, and the interest goes on my schedule 4 and then comes straight off my taxable income. I did so in the spring of 2009. That's how the rich get richer. What's not to like.


not sure how this proposition amounts to much more than a huge fuss & bother for nothing.

the 4% interest does get deducted as a carrying charge but the 5% income from the securities purchased has to be added to net income. This might even bump taxpayer up into next marginal bracket, which would produce a negative result, would it not.

somehow i fail to see why an investor should bust his derrière for 1% additional income, meanwhile taking on the risk that the securities purchased with the loan may fall in value.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> not sure how this proposition amounts to much more than a huge fuss & bother for nothing.
> 
> the 4% interest does get deducted as a carrying charge but the 5% income from the securities purchased has to be added to net income. This might even bump taxpayer up into next marginal bracket, which would produce a negative result, would it not.
> 
> somehow i fail to see why an investor should bust his derrière for 1% additional income, meanwhile taking on the risk that the securities purchased with the loan may fall in value.


Please stop it. You're talking too much sense.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

what would make fabulous sense would be if one could borrow for the paltry positive 1% but the borrowed capital itself would be used to buy stocks that commence a runup like the great bull market of 2009-2014 .

but you can see how PWM - sensibly - doesn't think this is going to repeat, so he's not borrowing at the moment.

also speaking of sense, rBull, don't u think it's wonderful how so many cmffers managed to start investing in 2009, or they upped & increased their equity allocations in early 2009 ... i myself did crazy good on this story of course ... how about yourself :wink:


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

humble_pie said:


> not sure how this proposition amounts to much more than a huge fuss & bother for nothing.
> 
> the 4% interest does get deducted as a carrying charge but the 5% income from the securities purchased has to be added to net income. This might even bump taxpayer up into next marginal bracket, which would produce a negative result, would it not.
> 
> *somehow i fail to see why an investor should bust his derrière for 1% additional income, meanwhile taking on the risk that the securities purchased with the loan may fall in value.*


has nothing to do with 1% income, people do that (including me) to catch the share price at the lower level, so in a year or two (hopefully) price will recover and you make 30-50%+... if not, then you're just borrowing money free of interest since yield will cover it


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## pwm (Jan 19, 2012)

Thanks Blin10. That's what I would have said.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> what would make fabulous sense would be if one could borrow for the paltry positive 1% but the borrowed capital itself would be used to buy stocks that commence a runup like the great bull market of 2009-2014 .
> 
> but you can see how PWM - sensibly - doesn't think this is going to repeat, so he's not borrowing at the moment.
> 
> also speaking of sense, rBull, don't u think it's wonderful how so many cmffers managed to start investing in 2009, or they upped & increased their equity allocations in early 2009 ... i myself did crazy good on this story of course ... how about yourself :wink:


Yes, it is great many have done well in the come back and it is inspirational for those getting started. There is caution though for these people newer to investing that have only seen one direction. One cannot explain the feeling of losing (even on paper) a very large % or worse a large amount of $$. Agree on the bull of 09-14 and on what PWM is doing. 

I've been investing for about 33 years now and therefore have been through numerous ups and downs. I would like to have had a lower equity allocation in '08. I remember vividly being very close to pulling the sell trigger on much of my equities but held out and stayed on tracked, like in the past. This was a good decision of course and got back to my original #'s (without considering contributions) well before the market overall has so the choices worked. 

Overall have done fine and have since sold business and retired 5 years later. 

I am surprised at how much more risk adverse I have become since our employment income is removed and there is a stronger need for capital preservation. My return expectations are MUCH lower now. We plan for 35+ years of retirement so our allocations etc reflect all of that. I am currently positioned on the higher end of cash according to the plan but ready to increase the equity stake somewhat as opportunity presents. Fortunately part of our retirement income will come from my wife's DB pension and provides a very good base to weather any possible storm along with good amount of cash. 

We are extremely thankful for all we have and are enjoying life with a plenty of options available to us. Thanks for the question.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

I think you have to look at the appreciation potential of what you would buy. Unless I missed something in this thread, you didn't mention what stocks you would buy. I think it would help if you would suggest some tickers and at what price you would be willing to pay. 

Lots of people are in your position, not the least of which is Buffett. Last time I checked he has 55 billion in cash and he hates cash. The only reason to have cash is while one is waiting for a good buy. I think if you drew up a buy list, and then checked the historical price/book at the last major low, and looked at the price/book pre-crash 07-08 you would get a possible range of what could happen in the future. Then buy what you want when the p/b is around the median of the range. that way you are buying when appreciation potential is decent. It might not be the bottom, but you are avoiding buying a top. Always estimate appreciation potential before you buy. Say for instance you want to buy a bank stock, and you find its price/book is almost where it was in 2007, and no where near what it was in 2008-9, wouldn't you favour some low interest income and capital preservation until a better opportunity arose? 
Why buy it now when its value profile is like it was before the last bear market. 

Supposing some one just bought a freezer to store food for the long term. Do they run around and buy food at the highest possible prices and freeze it? Or do they take their time and buy freezable food when it's on sale? Same thing with stocks. Just think of your stock portfolio as a freezer for the long term, and put the bargains in it. The saying that it doesn't matter what price one pays because "i'm in it for the long term" is a rationalization to overpay. Not that you said that, but I hear it often. Its a recipe for a major headache.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

pwm said:


> Thanks Blin10. That's what I would have said.



but ... then ... why aren't you doing it? borrowing, i mean

you said it yourself above, in messages #11 & #18.

you're "still waiting for a pullback."

you "can't see any bargains now, most indexes are at all time highs."

you'd "like to see prices drop by at least 10%" before you buy anything.

ie you are waiting for a correction like everybody else.

blin - who likes to buckle swashes - has left out the part where the loan goes sour because the market has crashed.

carrying said loan somewhat securely at plus 1% return is *not* the worst thing that can happen to investor under the borrow scenario. It's actually the 2nd best thing. The worst is scary.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

The idea of borrowing to buy stocks right now is a very bad idea. Wait until the sky is falling. Wait until Time magazine, Newsweek and the like have front cover articles on the trillions lost in the stock market and feature very large Bears with a red zig zag line in a steep downtrend. There will be articles claiming no one ever will be able to retire due to losses. Then, out of the blue, CNBC will quietly report that 
warren Buffett is buying big. That will be a short little news cast that's easy to miss, then they will go on to report that the sky is falling. Jim Grant will come on CNBC and say "I told you so". He will anxiously proclaim that the worst is yet to come. Usually this happens near a bottom and is a great time to borrow to buy. You will make so much money coming out of the bear market into a new bull that you will forget all about your current problems. Too, you will then never buy near a top, because you will know from experience that the easy money is made buying when the stock market and the economy is in very serious trouble.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

humble_pie said:


> blin - who likes to buckle swashes - has left out the part where the loan goes sour because the market has crashed.
> 
> carrying said loan somewhat securely at plus 1% return is *not* the worst thing that can happen to investor under the borrow scenario. It's actually the 2nd best thing. The worst is scary.


heloc loan cannot go sour as long as you don't sell, you'll continue pay interest and collect dividends to pay interest (99% of blue chip stocks never cut distribution in 08/09) while being down on paper... only way loan can go sour if you load up on margin to the max in your trading account and if markets go lower, then your bank will call the loan and sell stocks to cover difference...

actually carrying loan is the best thing that can happen in a huge market sell off, as long as you're not going to be an idiot by buying garbage companies or penny stocks.. in my example, in 08/09 I bought 1000 shares at $30 each of Royal bank using heloc, three years later I sold 500 shares to cover entire loan, and had 500 shares left, not even counting dividends... if I didn't have access to borrow money that would never happen..

sure, market sell of could of continued in 08/09 and i could of been 50% down on paper, or royal bank could of went bankrupt, but you need to be smart about it, know your risks... all i'm saying is that you're wrong by saying taking on a loan is a bad idea in a huge sell off like 08/09


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## coptzr (Jan 18, 2013)

Pluto said:


> Supposing some one just bought a freezer to store food for the long term. Do they run around and buy food at the highest possible prices and freeze it? Or do they take their time and buy freezable food when it's on sale? Same thing with stocks. Just think of your stock portfolio as a freezer for the long term, and put the bargains in it. The saying that it doesn't matter what price one pays because "i'm in it for the long term" is a rationalization to overpay. Not that you said that, but I hear it often. Its a recipe for a major headache.


I hate the freezer mentality, just like the Costco pantry people. I get what you are saying, just don't be one of those need to buy 10 of them because they are on sale. Sometimes stuff is on sale because it is to be discontinued or unwanted. I only freeze meat and thats because it came from my field. Going back to the topic here...Buy stuff when it is cheap and on sale. Hold onto those items which are real solid and good for you - no junk. I was told a long time ago by my small business advisor to always have enough in reserve to pay off the loan.
Some say you are wasting potential gains, but I have seen some good companies that have had huge growth since '08 - almost 10x original value. I want to buy more but when looking back it seems crazy to buy into this.
When will the market drop and see a "correction", I say not for a while. The first time we see a 10% drop everyone in the background is going to jump in with cash and bounce it back up. We need breaking news that changes an industry to see something real. A huge electric hybrid car market opening where the big 3 drop or a couple scams by leading manufacturer such as coca-cola or google. One example I see personally is 2014 Dodge eco-diesel pickup trucks as a family member just bought one and it was a serious eye opener to the gas guzzlers on the current market. Now the import maker - Nissan is introducing one for 2015. Another bit of news I have been following is the heavy equipment industry. It seems to be a big indicator if there is money left in these huge developments. Which than passes down to all the investors foreign and domestic.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

coptzr said:


> We need breaking news that changes an industry to see something real. A huge electric hybrid car market opening where the big 3 drop or a couple scams by leading manufacturer such as coca-cola or google. One example I see personally is 2014 Dodge eco-diesel pickup trucks as a family member just bought one and it was a serious eye opener to the gas guzzlers on the current market. Now the import maker - Nissan is introducing one for 2015. Another bit of news I have been following is the heavy equipment industry. It seems to be a big indicator if there is money left in these huge developments. Which than passes down to all the investors foreign and domestic.


Yes... you will see a deal when Blockbuster "corrected" due to Netflix or Kodak "corrected" due to digital camera... so were those drops good buying opportunities like you claim to be? 

Well, they dropped for a reason.... and they never rebounded.


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## Islenska (May 4, 2011)

I do remember in 09 reaching a point of paralysis where I just could not buy any more stocks and my margin was near the max, have overall just got back in the black and should have decent sailing now as returns on the account will pay the bills even markets going up and down.
Will scale back on margin use when interest rates climb but that should not be for awhile down the road.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

coptzr said:


> I hate the freezer mentality, just like the Costco pantry people. I get what you are saying, just don't be one of those need to buy 10 of them because they are on sale. Sometimes stuff is on sale because it is to be discontinued or unwanted. I only freeze meat and thats because it came from my field. Going back to the topic here...Buy stuff when it is cheap and on sale. Hold onto those items which are real solid and good for you - no junk. I was told a long time ago by my small business advisor to always have enough in reserve to pay off the loan.
> Some say you are wasting potential gains, but I have seen some good companies that have had huge growth since '08 - almost 10x original value. I want to buy more but when looking back it seems crazy to buy into this.
> When will the market drop and see a "correction", I say not for a while. The first time we see a 10% drop everyone in the background is going to jump in with cash and bounce it back up. We need breaking news that changes an industry to see something real. A huge electric hybrid car market opening where the big 3 drop or a couple scams by leading manufacturer such as coca-cola or google. One example I see personally is 2014 Dodge eco-diesel pickup trucks as a family member just bought one and it was a serious eye opener to the gas guzzlers on the current market. Now the import maker - Nissan is introducing one for 2015. Another bit of news I have been following is the heavy equipment industry. It seems to be a big indicator if there is money left in these huge developments. Which than passes down to all the investors foreign and domestic.


It isn't clear that you get what I am saying. No one said to buy junk just because it was on sale. Even so, Bill Cundill made a lot of money buying junk at 10 cents on the dollar. 

The people who say I am wasting potential gains won't tell me when to quit, so as to preserve those gains. They will likely ride the next bear market all the way down and forget they ever said I am wasting potential gains.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Islenska said:


> I do remember in 09 reaching a point of paralysis where I just could not buy any more stocks and my margin was near the max, have overall just got back in the black and should have decent sailing now as returns on the account will pay the bills even markets going up and down.
> Will scale back on margin use when interest rates climb but that should not be for awhile down the road.


It is interesting you mentioned "paralysis". You were not the only one. That's a psychological indicator telling one to seriously consider *commencing* getting on margin. the key word is commence, not already be on margin. And right now that you feel somewhat the opposite of paralysis is when you should be off margin. I bet you and I and legions of others felt paralysis very close to the same day. That's what Templeton meant by "maximum pessimism". The day one literally is frozen in fear. Its a big buy indicator. I hope you seriously consider paring back on your margin during the current don't worry be happy days.


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## coptzr (Jan 18, 2013)

MoreMiles - I didn't say to buy something that has been "corrected". An example was LuLu last month, it dropped and I felt it was needed, hopefully a change is coming and I would say to try and find the next big hit.

Pluto - I get what you are saying and no one wants to buy junk, it was just beware when a price does a big drop, maybe it belongs down there. If you know your business buying junk can make you a lot of money. I do it all the time with my old business of car parts. I can take something locally for $200 and sell it to a foreign country customer in Switzerland for $400. When I was really into it I bought out many business' inventory, some bigger guys like TSC and CTC. They don't lose money but someone like me can make money because of the smaller overhead.


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

The bears have been awfully quiet lately....


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

Oh now you've gone and done it!


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

uptoolate said:


> Oh now you've gone and done it!


Haha, I jinxed it! ;-)


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

You've gained about 8% YTD?




On other news, I predict a crash
One of these days I will be right


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

SheaButters said:


> You've gained about 8% YTD?


Not year to date, for the past year (since August 2013). This is a fairly standard couch potato portfolio with a few minor tweaks/exceptions.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

brad said:


> The bears have been awfully quiet lately



yea i saw lonewolf down by the water cooler this am, he was subdued but still managing to be upbeat about his downdraft put


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

I sure am glad that I sold everything at the beginning of August like they told me. Whew! That was close.


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## pwm (Jan 19, 2012)

Maybe this is it.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Maybe pwm!

What are you looking to buy? Financials? Oil? Utility stocks? Other?


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

pwm said:


> Maybe this is it.


Well it's certainly something!


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

My Own Advisor said:


> Maybe pwm!
> 
> What are you looking to buy? Financials? Oil? Utility stocks? Other?


MOA, what about you?! and ... when?!


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

don't know if this is it. How's the volume on the indexes? If it is higher than average, this could be it. 
volume is higher than average on Canuck banks, so it looks like some Canadian institutions are taking money out of banks. 
But volume on energy stocks isn't unusually high, so their correction could be about over. 

I don't have real time volume on S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, etc. Look at the volume compared to average volume. If higher vol, then this could be it, whatever "it" is. Whatever it is, it isn't a serious bear market and recession. That's for later, in about a year.


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## pwm (Jan 19, 2012)

I've been wanting to buy more units of CDZ and was waiting for it to get back to $25. Maybe soon.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

brad said:


> Haha, I jinxed it! ;-)


AHA- so this was all YOUR fault!


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

gibor said:


> MOA, what about you?! and ... when?!


Well, I have no money, sadly. I went to Chicago for a long weekend with my wife in August, great time; wouldn't trade that for the world, but not overly cheap. So, the $$ saved that might have bought stocks paid off the CC bill this month. Currently saving to buy new positions. 

Considering: LRE. Around $4 would be great.
Wanting more: COS. Around $20 would be great.

I've got bank stocks and lifecos DRIPping so I don't need more financials. 

Not really watching much on the U.S. side, although I would love to own MDT. A dividend stud and their cash flow rises year after year after year. With an aging population, I believe healthcare and medical device companies are one of the places to be.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

_I believe healthcare and medical device companies are one of the places to be._ was thinking about MDT some time ago , but passed it 
form pharma I hold only JNJ, ABBV, ABT
and "place to be" I think "military" stocks (like LMT, RTN, NOC) , especially considering that US fighting 24/7  I bought LMT 1.5 year ago (should've buy more!!!! ), not only that stock is more than doubled, my YoC is about 6.9% as those guys always increase divi by doublle digits


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

btw, any predictions for next week?


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

more red but not too painful 2-3% will be buying in October


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

I think this is it for the bull market from the 1932 low if not very close to the end of the bull. There is very strong support around 1000 in the DJI if that support does not hold support around the 1974 low should stop the next bear. This is the area I will put on long core positions. Will play both sides of the market along the way to 1000, the moves in both directions are going be worth playing & if I am wrong I should still be able to make some money.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> There is very strong support around 1000 in the DJI.
> Will play both sides of the market along the way to 1000


Did you mean 10,000 on the DJIA or 1,000?
Do you truly believe this is the beginning of a colossal crash from 17,000+ down to 1,000 for the DJIA?


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

How much of this downturn is a Canadian thing vs. a US thing? My US portfolio (which consists of a single Vanguard index fund that tracks the S&P 500) has fallen slightly since its high in mid-September, but nothing like what we're seeing in Canada.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> Did you mean 10,000 on the DJIA or 1,000?
> Do you truly believe this is the beginning of a colossal crash from 17,000+ down to 1,000 for the DJIA?



H i'm fairly sure he means dow 1000 ...


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> H i'm fairly sure he means dow 1000 ...


I suspected as much.
Where is Belguy's bed when you need it


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

lone has a giant put, don't you remember each:

even if he didn't possess the same, you'd never find him under a bed


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

*There is very strong support around 1000 in the DJI * even stronger support around 100 :biggrin:


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> even if he didn't possess the same, you'd never find him under a bed


Not him. Us. Me. Need. The. Bed. If. DJIA = 1,000


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

CMF = Comical Money Forum each:


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

The market often finds support in the area of previous 4th wave. I count 5 up from the 1932 most likely completed. 4th wave from 1966 - 1982 is the price area where support should come in. The market had a hard time breaking through 1000 on the way up, should provide support on the way down. The 1974 low was the low of wave 4. Maybe slightly below the 09 low will hold in this bear that has possibly started even if it has not started the price pattern as I se it looks like we will @ least test the 09 low in the future with the most likely path testing the price area of the 4th wave from 1966- 1982. Of course there will be very power full rallies on the way down with a possibility of a "B wave" exceeding the orthodox high but if "B" does make a higher high it will be a suckers rally.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

HaroldCrump said:


> Not him. Us. Me. Need. The. Bed. If. DJIA = 1,000


You will need not bed, but guns


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## martinv (Apr 30, 2009)

Continuing on with the Comical Money forum.
Just drove 4000km to Baja once again. On the way, several roadrunners ran across the road in front of my vehicle. I think that means the market is going to go up....sometime.....or maybe down....not quite sure.
Then I went for a swim and the fourth wave caught me or was it the sixth? Anyway, I am pretty sure the market will go up and down and find support and break support and break out etc.
In the meantime I had breakfast at Adelita's and she said today was going to be a good day so I will go with Adelita. Breakfast was great by the way.
Sorry, I just couldn't resist a bit of humour today.


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## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

martinv said:


> Continuing on with the Comical Money forum.
> Just drove 4000km to Baja once again. On the way, several roadrunners ran across the road in front of my vehicle. I think that means the market is going to go up....sometime.....or maybe down....not quite sure.
> Then I went for a swim and the fourth wave caught me or was it the sixth? Anyway, I am pretty sure the market will go up and down and find support and break support and break out etc.
> In the meantime I had breakfast at Adelita's and she said today was going to be a good day so I will go with Adelita. Breakfast was great by the way.
> Sorry, I just couldn't resist a bit of humour today.


In contention for post of the year, 2014.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Historically October is the best month of the year for markets ....so during rest of the month rally should resume


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I agree with you Gibor ,bought a few things this morning but only about 1/5 what i want to buy before month end.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

nah, it's too soon, you don't hear the thunder? this is not a light summer rain shower.

martinv, could you please keep posting us with Adelita's breakfast latests, would appreesch, many thankx.

PS watch out for when she serves you an egg with a double yolk


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

gibor said:


> Historically October is the best month of the year for markets ....so during rest of the month rally should resume


 Hi, Gibor a proper approach to calendar research should take into account the lunar/solar calendar since 1915 when there is no full moon between Oct 3-19 inclusive the DJI has on average been up 1.5%.
When there is a full moon between Oct3-oct19 inclusive the DJI has been down 1.9%

Take into account the peaking of the sunspot cycle, the Mars-Uranus potential crash cycle is operative, the jaws of death pattern possibly complete, diminishing volume since the 09 low, bullish sentiment readings not seen since before the 87 crash, coming off record high margin debt, recent hindenburg omen, a lot of the worlds stock indices below 50 & 200 day moving averages with the averages in down trend. Less & less stocks in up trend as markets made recent highs.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

sorry, forgot about full moon :biggrin:


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

of COURSE! the hindenburg omen. that's what I was neglecting.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

nobleea
US stock market crash index has not yet registered -10 , no red flag yet just yellow


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

earnings begin next week, if they hold up we will be ok ...
where the hell else can you make any money ?
someone let me know and i'll put my money there


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Fatcat Just like a poker game the job of the market is to take from the weak players & give to the strong. Its not the markets job to make everyone money

Things look rosy near the tops bleak near the bottoms. Are strong earnings really good for the market ?


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## yyz (Aug 11, 2013)

Sounds like we're back to watching Uranus I was hoping for something completely different


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

lonewolf; said:


> Are strong earnings really good for the market ?


only if you buy the arcane idea that it's advisable to own the stock of companies that make money  ...


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

yyz said:


> Sounds like we're back to watching Uranus I was hoping for something completely different


 Hi, yyz

I think what will be different this time is we could be starting the biggest decline ever. I was thinking we would get a strong rally in Nov/Dec little early yet till more price pattern unfolds but this year Santa might be riding a polar bear.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I hear pluto's a planet again!

Really, nobody can predict these things. Either this is the end of the 5.5 year bull run, or it's just another brief correction before strength resumes. I have no idea which way it will go, but given the 5.5 year bull run I'm leaning towards believing the bull market is coming to an end. It doesn't mean it's happening now, but I think we're closer to the end than the middle.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

lonewolf said:


> Hi, yyz
> 
> I think what will be different this time is we could be starting the biggest decline ever. I was thinking we would get a strong rally in Nov/Dec little early yet till more price pattern unfolds but this year Santa might be riding a polar bear.


Why even bother consider this? What can you gain from it? Are you actually willing to put a bunch of money in play betting that this is the start of the biggest decline ever?

It seems like a waste of energy to me to be such a mega perma bear. Far too extreme and in my opinion irrational. I think almost anything else would be more useful than waves and planets when it comes to investing. My coffee is well made this morning... obviously the market is going up.


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

Lots of ppl including buffet and BNN dudes are buying right now
Buffet said he is 100% equities.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

I am not surprised. There is nothing else to buy. GIC and bond are simply less attractive. Or you can stay in cash and let inflation corrodes it all slowly. It now takes. $600 to fly to New York from Toronto... It was about half price just a few years ago. Same thing with restaurant and hotel costs... These $400-600 per night is becoming common and not just targeting movie star any more. There are over 150,000 millionaire in Shanghai alone, according to CNN Beaudoin show. Steakhouses were selling $1000 steaks... These are real proof of inflation and raised wealths. There is no point to deny it as it is happening in front of our eyes. So why fight and you can join them?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

SheaButters said:


> Lots of ppl including buffet and BNN dudes are buying right now
> Buffet said he is 100% equities.


Huh? What did he spend that 20 or so billion on?

Actually, at last report, he has 50 billion in cash. It is true, however, that his goal is to be 100% in stocks.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

> given the 5.5 year bull run I'm leaning towards believing the bull market is coming to an end


 james, if you are leaning forward .... why you don't short ?! like buying TZA?


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

Currently at 65% equities, 20% bond etf/GIC ladder, 15% cash. Will sleep well tonight and if markets get rocked in Q4 I will move to zero cash.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

gibor said:


> sorry, forgot about full moon :biggrin:


 Watch out for the Oct moon wobble


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## yyz (Aug 11, 2013)

lonewolf said:


> Watch out for the Oct moon wobble


I for one can't wait to see what you come up with for your 1000 post.It's probably going to be legendary and involve all the planets,sun ,milky way etc maybe even the galaxy.
Is it possible that the firefighters enemy the jaws of death will come out to play? Anticipation is killing me


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Well I guess today wasn't it. A very welcome bounce. Maybe this will be it on Monday.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

yyz said:


> I for one can't wait to see what you come up with for your 1000 post


he has 999 posts, in reverse 666 .... number of the beast


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## pwm (Jan 19, 2012)

Well I decided that was it. I sold all my TDB8150 and most of my HISA where I had been accumulating cash and started to buy; ETFs, foreign and domestic. I like to be 100% invested at all times. The old adage that it's not "timing the markets" but "time in the markets" that counts in the long run kept recurring to me.

I guess you could say that my aversion to sitting on cash overcame my reluctance to buy at these valuations.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

pwm said:


> Well I decided that was it. I sold all my TDB8150 and most of my HISA where I had been accumulating cash and started to buy; ETFs, foreign and domestic. I like to be 100% invested at all times. The old adage that it's not "timing the markets" but "time in the markets" that counts in the long run kept recurring to me.



wow. Just wow. I don't know whether to say Bravo or not.

were you influenced by what buffett is said to have said?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Buying right on the day of Yom Kippur is celebrated, Sat is Yom Kippur & the day the rally in the S&P kissed its down trend line from the Fall equinox high. There will be "SIGNS in the sun, moon & the stars. Genius 1:14 God said let there be light in the firmament in the heavens to divide the day from night & let it be for "signs" & seasons & the days for years. The fall high in both 1929 & 1987 fell on Yom Kippur for one fall top & one day before for the other fall top there could be a reason for this holiday. If the ancients were having speculative market highs on the same solar/lunar date is it possible they made the holiday to stop speculation ? The Oct grand trine will be most exact on Oct 6 which should be a positive for the market Monday perhaps the market will still hold up till Monday WD Gann said the bible was the best astrology book ever written. Will be interesting to see if the blood moon & solar eclipse will be a sign. The sun shall be turned into darkness & the moon to blood. Blood moon on Oct 8, solar eclipse Oct 23.


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## yyz (Aug 11, 2013)

A post late at 1001 but that's what I'm talking about.Well done wolfie


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

yyz said:


> A post late at 1001 but that's what I'm talking about



he's too late, Adelita got there first
i don't remember if she was before or after buffett though


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

> Buying right on the day of Yom Kippur is celebrated,


 Yeap! Sell Shana , buy Kippur


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## namelessone (Sep 28, 2012)

You gotta be kidding.Waited for 1 year for nothing. TSX is still +9% YTD. 
If you want to do market timing, put everything in short term bond and wait for market to drop 30% or more but this kind of crash rarely happens.
I'd rather invest 100% stocks at all time and leverage a bit when I find value stocks. e.g. I recently bought a value stock with 7% of my portfolio value and it went up 8% in less than one month. I expect this single trade will add 1% to this year's performance in 2 months.


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## martinv (Apr 30, 2009)

Well, at least we know one thing that is going up......Wolfie's entertainment value!
I may become a bit concerned though, if he starts sacrifices to one of the many gods!
Now I did see some pretty butterflies on the beach in Baja today. They looked golden in the setting sun. They were flapping their little wings quite vigorously to stay airborne. I think this means that gold is going to have a difficult time staying at its present price level ( much more flapping required )so according to the butterfly investment technique, I would sell gold on Monday.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

lonewolf said:


> Buying right on the day of Yom Kippur is celebrated, Sat is Yom Kippur & the day the rally in the S&P kissed its down trend line from the Fall equinox high. There will be "SIGNS in the sun, moon & the stars. Genius 1:14 God said let there be light in the firmament in the heavens to divide the day from night & let it be for "signs" & seasons & the days for years. The fall high in both 1929 & 1987 fell on Yom Kippur for one fall top & one day before for the other fall top there could be a reason for this holiday. If the ancients were having speculative market highs on the same solar/lunar date is it possible they made the holiday to stop speculation ? The Oct grand trine will be most exact on Oct 6 which should be a positive for the market Monday perhaps the market will still hold up till Monday WD Gann said the bible was the best astrology book ever written. Will be interesting to see if the blood moon & solar eclipse will be a sign. The sun shall be turned into darkness & the moon to blood. Blood moon on Oct 8, solar eclipse Oct 23.


I weep for humanity...

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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

Some people I've talked to seem to think it has another 10% down to go


Anyone else have any predictions?


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## yyz (Aug 11, 2013)

Yes I think it has anywhere from 0-100% left to go. Seriously no one and I mean no one can tell.You are asking for a guess nothing more,nothing less.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

It's not technically in correction territory yet.
A correction is 10% or more and right now the TSX is only down 7-8% from it's very recent all-time high.

The most recent correction in 2011 for the TSX from high to low was 20%.
I have no idea where it will go from here but personally I hope we have a significant correction.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

mrPPincer said:


> I have no idea where it will go from here but personally I hope we have a significant correction.


Yes please +1


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Well, the timing sux, though.
Ideally, stock market corrections should be time-synchronized with TFSA and RRSP contribution season.

Best timing for stock market correction is between 2nd January and 1st March, which would cover both TFSA and RRSP season.
Esp. now that TFSA room is likely to be doubled...


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

S&P 500 down -1.5% yesterday. Today, it's up +1.8%
Yep, nobody knows where we are going.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

HaroldCrump said:


> Well, the timing sux, though.
> Ideally, stock market corrections should be time-synchronized with TFSA and RRSP contribution season./QUOTE]
> 
> Agreed. I mean, why can't stuff TANK around early January and end of February? I don't get it....


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

"October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February." Mark Twain.

I'm not fond of this time of year or the volatility we're seeing. I think it's either time to rebalance a wee bit early or take a trip to Africa! Oh wait, maybe just rebalance.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

My Own Advisor said:


> Agreed. I mean, why can't stuff TANK around early January and end of February? I don't get it....


We should get together and write an HFT program that causes a market crash around mid Feb, after all our TFSA & RRSP contributions have been deposited.
Kinda like the "flash crash" of May 2010.
Shouldn't be too hard to do...I am sure there are at least a dozen computer programmers on CMF.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

uptoolate said:


> "October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February." Mark Twain.
> .


 The most dangerous time is when everyone is long the market. There is a high charge from the sunspots in the upper atmosphere being brought down closer to earth from the tidal force


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

The saying goes " Buy when there is blood in the streets" I say unto you "If there is blood in the moon do not buy"


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Around here the saying goes "If KaeJS is buying, get out of the markets" lol
As soon as he bought that TLM stock, I started selling out


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

What got us here as in the high stock markets? The answer since really 2001 but crazy since 2008 has been low interest rates and money creation. To that end everything that would spell the truth of the paper over has been attacked or destroyed by the military, as in attack any country who goes against the dollar, the media, commodity manipulation, extreme precious metal manipulation, manipulation of government statistics and much, much more. The risk to the stock market is a multi year winter like crash that has mini great bull runs but more like Japan on the way down.

The reason many have been wrong on the way down myself included is that the Fed or Bernanke really did study how to put off the 1929 style crash. They are running out of time as countries do get slowly away from the dollar as in Russia and China and then onward from there but in the meantime they can still continue to make many wrong as long as they don't run out of precious metals to supply the east, the dollar can keep its status and they can continue to print and manipulate everything at will with no laws to hold them back as they have now.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

HaroldCrump said:


> We should get together and write an HFT program that causes a market crash around mid Feb, after all our TFSA & RRSP contributions have been deposited.
> Kinda like the "flash crash" of May 2010.
> Shouldn't be too hard to do...I am sure there are at least a dozen computer programmers on CMF.


If that was 100% legal I'd be all over it


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Lonewolf don't let them get you down. I get a bang out of your posts. As far as I can see, astrology has as much predictive power as any other form of economic analysis (none). Yours has the benefit that it is harder to get sucked in.

I sincerely wish that there was some way to predict the markets successfully and I don't care if it is Keynesianism, Elliot waves, Fibonnacci numbers, or the phases of the moon but so far as I know, none has proven to be any better than tea leaves and Ouija boards.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

I deleted this post


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

yyz said:


> Yes I think it has anywhere from 0-100% left to go. Seriously no one and I mean no one can tell.You are asking for a guess nothing more,nothing less.


I'm not sure why it is purely a guess. I predict it won't go down 100%, and that's not a guess. Its just that the probability it will go to zero is very very small. 

I get the point that absolute precision isn't achievable, but I don't buy into the idea that it is purely a guess. If it is purely a guess, then a prediction it will go down about 10% is on the same level as a prediction it will go down 100%. But can that really be true? To me the key is when one starts to see value they haven't seen in the last 4- 6 years, its close enough to a bottom to buy.


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## yyz (Aug 11, 2013)

No when you predict it won't go down 100% it's a guess.You're probably right but it is still just a guess. But that's the point isn't it?Why come on here and ask because all you are going to get is a guess.No one can 100% tell you what the end result will be.If they could........... well then the moon wouldn't wobble would it


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

lonewolf said:


> The most dangerous time is when everyone is long the market.


Yes, and that's what we've had for the last 2 years or so. Unanimous bullishness and high % stock allocations by retail and mutual funds. Margin debt at all time highs. Very few short sellers (in fact they've left the game).

And investment amateurs proclaim on a daily basis that all you have to do is buy high-quality dividend stocks for long-term success and riches. This is how we know the market is close to a top.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The Bank of Canada will no longer be giving future guidance, as they don't know the future.

Poloz also said future guidance on interest rates, distorts the markets and they are being manipulated by Fed announcements.

The risk of uncertainty is going to be passed to the investor.

The "guarantee" of low interest rates is being pulled out from under the markets.


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## GOB (Feb 15, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Yes, and that's what we've had for the last 2 years or so. Unanimous bullishness and high % stock allocations by retail and mutual funds. Margin debt at all time highs. Very few short sellers (in fact they've left the game).
> 
> And investment amateurs proclaim on a daily basis that *all you have to do is buy high-quality dividend stocks for long-term success and riches.* This is how we know the market is close to a top.


That statement is generally true though, although there should be an eye on valuation when purchasing.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

yyz said:


> No when you predict it won't go down 100% it's a guess.You're probably right but it is still just a guess. But that's the point isn't it?Why come on here and ask because all you are going to get is a guess.No one can 100% tell you what the end result will be.If they could........... well then the moon wouldn't wobble would it


Well, I still don't buy its just a guess. If someone estimated 15% give or take 5% doesn't that seem more reasonable than estimating a 100% decline?
If one is rolling dice, and hoping for a specific number, that's guessing. If you are estimating future levels of stock prices, although absolute precision isn't possible, it isn't the same as a pure guess. You are trying to make all estimates equal, as if it were dice. But it isn't dice. The movements of stock prices are not random.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

james4beach said:


> And investment amateurs proclaim on a daily basis that all you have to do is buy high-quality dividend stocks for long-term success and riches. This is how we know the market is close to a top.


That has the ring of truth to it. Also, the word "near" is an approximation. How near? A few weeks ago? A few months in the future? A year in the future? 
I do say buy quality dividend paying stocks, such as the Canadian banks and others. Where I differ from others is I say buy in a bear market, they say buy anytime. Its two different philosophies. My perspective is influenced by value, their buy anytime seems to be influenced by the efficient market theory which doesn't make sense to me. Since you don't talk like an efficient market theorist, maybe you are leaning to the value approach. Yes?


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Pluto said:


> The movements of stock prices are not random.


The movements might as well called random given people's ability to predict the prices.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

cainvest said:


> The movements might as well called random given people's ability to predict the prices.


Depends on what people you are talking about. Some people are bad at it, and some are good at it. If one averages the good and bad together it can look random when it isn't. But if one just looks at the good ones, and pay attention to how they do it, its obvious it isn't random. If you read The Essays of Warren Buffett, (pp91ff section c) he explained in plain English why the random prices theory is simply false dogma.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Pluto said:


> But if one just looks at the good ones, and pay attention to how they do it, its obvious it isn't random.


So just how accurate are the good ones and what percentage of the time are they right?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

cainvest said:


> So just how accurate are the good ones and what percentage of the time are they right?


Templeton: Averaged about 20% compounded over his career. 
Buffett and Munger: About 20% compounded over a long time. 
Lynch: I think he managed near 30% compounded 

None of them said predicting stock prices was guessing. They are some of the good ones. They assume that price is what you pay, and value is what you get. They avoided poor value and performed way better than guessing. 

To the bad ones. These guys assume price = value, so buy anything at random any time. In one test throwing darts at the tables - representative of guessing randomly - got 4.5%

So, 4.5% guessing vs 20% to 30% for some of the best.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

So is that strictly from investing in the markets alone of does that include making big financial deals, like Buffett's BK/TH financing?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

cainvest said:


> So is that strictly from investing in the markets alone of does that include making big financial deals, like Buffett's BK/TH financing?


Can you please be more specific what you mean by BK/TH financing? 

Yes one can beat guessing by investing and without financing. For instance if one invested in the biggest 5 or 6 Canadian banks, say from 1997 to present, you not only beat the TSX, you beat the S&P and you beat BRK. Check the charts of the banks vs the indexes and BRK.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

After today's big sell off in the US.........there is a hint of panic in the air.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Pluto said:


> Can you please be more specific what you mean by BK/TH financing?


That's the $3 billion financing deal for Burger King / Tim Horton's.


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## protomok (Jul 9, 2012)

TSX now down > 11% from the high earlier this year, dipped below 14000 earlier today. Not sure how long this correction will last but I have no problem buying at these levels. Just not sure how much to change my asset allocation. RRSP is now 100% equities. TFSA (also holding long term) is 60% equities...probably moving that to 70% with so many deals available.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

james4beach said:


> And investment amateurs proclaim on a daily basis that all you have to do is buy high-quality dividend stocks for long-term success and riches. This is how we know the market is close to a top.


I must admit getting pleasure from the hoards that piled into pipelines at any price because...dividends...now getting a taste of reality that valuation matters. This trade was so overdone by retailers.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

cainvest said:


> That's the $3 billion financing deal for Burger King / Tim Horton's.


OK I get you. No you don't need such deals to make hay. Besides, it is easy to beat BRK now. It is so big, it is a major challenge for them to keep growing at the same pace, so individual with small accounts have a great advantage. 

1. But the underlying issue is the good money managers mentioned above believed price what what you pay, and value is what you get - so don't over pay. 

2. That belief is in contrast to the efficient market guys who believe price=value. Since price = value, for them, they can rationalize buying any time at any price. Since price = value, looking at p/e's, p/b, growth rates and so on is a waste of time (for them). And this is where the diversification theory comes from. Essentially, they claim, since we are ignorant of the future of (random) stock prices, the path to safety is diversification. To me, all that achieves is, at best, average results. the more one diversifies, the more mediocre will be the results. 

Some of the old pros in the value approach think diversification is for people who don't know what they are doing. So there is nothing wrong, per se with diversification, especially of one knows and accepts that they don't know what they are doing. some value guys don't care so much for diversification. they seek safety partly in a dominant, well managed, honest company in a business that will be around in 100 years. that's why BRK can have 75% of its assets in only 5 or 6 companies. They don't diversify. They concentrate in the best they can find and they avoid overpaying. They think, why is diversification into less than the best safe? I don't have an answer for that. 

Anyway, the price = value, buy anytime, price changes are random (therefore unpredictable) theory arose out of an academic context. They were not professional investors, they were professors. And the old investing pros who get stellar results, don't pay much attention to them.


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## PuckiTwo (Oct 26, 2011)

This is NOT funny! At least not for retired people after the accumulation phase. I hope that all of you who are saying "what comes down has to come up" are right - and I am still alive then.  PS: that smiley is half lopsided/worried


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Year-to-date, XIU is still up 5.94%
That is still considered pretty great performance for a stock index

XBB (bond index) up 6.8% year-to-date, more than stocks.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

PuckiTwo said:


> This is NOT funny! At least not for retired people after the accumulation phase. I hope that all of you who are saying "what comes down has to come up" are right - and I am still alive then.  PS: that smiley is half lopsided/worried


It isn't true what goes down must come up. It's only the quality ones that will revive. The rest will languish.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

CPA Candidate said:


> I must admit getting pleasure from the hoards that piled into pipelines at any price because...dividends...now getting a taste of reality that valuation matters. This trade was so overdone by retailers.


I don't think you should gloat over some newer investors misfortune. My pipeline stocks got creamed in 2011 correction only to almost double by now, I'm sure those that are buying today will do very well. You can't sell the top or buy the bottom in real life unlike many claim to do on this message board.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Pluto said:


> OK I get you. No you don't need such deals to make hay. Besides, it is easy to beat BRK now.


Well if it's easy why isn't everyone getting better than a 20% a year return?


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## PuckiTwo (Oct 26, 2011)

Pluto said:


> It isn't true what goes down must come up. It's only the quality ones that will revive. The rest will languish.


Yeah,but what is quality? What is seen as quality today could be junk or redundant tomorrow. Who says that esso exists in 20 years?


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Eder said:


> I don't think you should gloat over some newer investors misfortune.


I agree, it's honest but still some thoughts are better kept untold ;-)


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## PuckiTwo (Oct 26, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Year-to-date, XIU is still up 5.94%
> That is still considered pretty great performance for a stock index
> 
> XBB (bond index) up 6.8% year-to-date, more than stocks.


tks james for the encouragement. You are right, prices are still on a high level and a number of stocks haven,t even reached the level of the february 2014 dip yet.


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