# GoPro IPO



## SkyFall

*GoPro (GPRO)*

*** Initial post was few months before the IPO ***


http://www.cnbc.com/id/101399385


----------



## Jon_Snow

I'll buy some... I love my GoPro.


----------



## jacofan

Will be interesting to watch. Myself, wouldn't touch it with the progress of phone cameras (not video which the GoPro's are though). Saw a report of how latest phone cameras compared to the top Canon/Nikons of past. Camera phones did pretty well. Cameras on phones tested to be about 3-5 years behind the DSLR's in image quality. Interesting read. Not sure a company solely relying on cameras can do well moving forward. Just my .02

http://connect.dpreview.com/post/5533410947/smartphones-versus-dslr-versus-film

And I think people look funny with them sticking up on their helmets but I'm an oldie so what do I know...


----------



## m3s

I'll be following this closely. Still lots of growth for GoPro imo. The marketing to extreme sports was a huge success, and now they are marketing to everybody else. Close up hero shot of your baby's first steps? You can't put a price tag on that! Every other family besides the luddites will _need_ one now


----------



## SkyFall

jacofan said:


> Will be interesting to watch. Myself, wouldn't touch it with the progress of phone cameras (not video which the GoPro's are though). Saw a report of how latest phone cameras compared to the top Canon/Nikons of past. Camera phones did pretty well. Cameras on phones tested to be about 3-5 years behind the DSLR's in image quality. Interesting read. Not sure a company solely relying on cameras can do well moving forward. Just my .02
> 
> http://connect.dpreview.com/post/5533410947/smartphones-versus-dslr-versus-film
> 
> And I think people look funny with them sticking up on their helmets but I'm an oldie so what do I know...


problem with camera phone is that it's not design to capture an ''on the spot'' moment you know what I mean, you attach your GoPro on your helmet, car, etc to capture the moment which I won't do with my phone because it's wasn't design to capture video at high speed and to attach is made to fix it on my car or helmet....

also the way I see it is that I don't think any company can take GoPro's spot in a time frame of 12-24months which is perfect for me if I can get my hand on few shares (depending on the IPO again) and I also don't think that GoPro IPO will be full of exuburating like TWTR or FB which mean the price should not jump too high from IPO's price....that's my opinion.


----------



## m3s

jacofan said:


> Myself, wouldn't touch it with the progress of phone cameras (not video which the GoPro's are though).
> 
> And I think people look funny with them sticking up on their helmets but I'm an oldie so what do I know...


How funny would people look with their phones sticking up on their helmets though? There are cases that turn a smartphone into a wide angle action cam, but wearable tech is supposed to "replace" smartphones though. I think they complement each other until something like "google glass" is mainstream.

GoPro is wearable tech that integrates seamlessly with phones. They will get smaller and smaller (at incremental upgrades for max profit..) Many pro film crews are using GoPro with Protune software and yet it's affordable to the masses. Smartphones are the remote/trigger/data log/gps/video edit/upload etc, but they are nowhere near GoPro quality


----------



## jacofan

yeah, you guys make sense. Phones aren't designed for the outdoorseyness. Breaking a phone would likely pain someone more than breaking their GoPro (which is more durable I'm sure anyways)...I will watch it for sure but out of my risk level for investing in. Maybe they will be bought out by Google or Nikon.. I just remember seeing at the opening Olympic ceremony some people with these boxes on their head - they looked funny with the camera headband.


----------



## Taraz

GoPro should do OK. Multi-camera arrays are used to capture 360-degree, 3D video, or 3D models. This type of video will be essential when the Oculus Rift becomes more popular. There's always the chance that a competitor will eat their lunch, but they have a bit of a head start, so I'm optomistic.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I'd be buying into GoPro for more of a "fun" factor - a small way to support a product that I enjoy immensely. If I make some money out of it, great.

I'm already thinking about ways I can mount my GoPro beneath the hull of my kayak to I can get "glass bottom boat" views of the teeming seabed as I paddle along the surface. I know for a fact that the local seals love to zip beneath me as I go by - if I manage to mount the camera successfully, I will post some videos here!


----------



## humble_pie

> I also don't think that GoPro IPO will be full of exuburating like TWTR or FB which mean the price should not jump too high from IPO's price....that's my opinion


my money says goPro will exuberate so high out of the starting gate that nobody in this forum will ever come near getting their hands on a single share

me i wouldn't touch this stock for months after the IPO, not until the options market had settled down, which might be a year from now


----------



## liquidfinance

Sadly, I agree with humble.

Otherwise I would love to get my hands on some of these shares.


----------



## jamesbe

There are chinese knock offs of the go-pro now that are better, half the price and have compatible accessories for less. I'd be surprised if this takes off.


----------



## m3s

I've seen lots of chinese knock offs of lots of things in Asia, the material is usually noticeably compromised to lower the cost. I have several friends who work between Chinese factories and west, they will make the quality high or low as you want. The original GoPro was produced in China over phone calls and emails, because he didn't want to waste money on a flight to China.. The quality and care of the CEO is what sets them apart for now. Nikon and Sony etc are really out of touch and playing catch up. I've had so many people tell me such and such a camera is cheaper, better, easier to use etc only to see crap shaky video or some problem.


----------



## bds

I'm a huge fan of GoPro, I'll definitely be buying some. Funny timing, I stumbled on this video today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrxPuk0JefA


----------



## Argonaut

These things always IPO too late for my taste as an investor. Good for the companies though, as they are trying to get max value. In 2010 I was interested in it and looked to see if it was publicly traded, but was not. Back then it was perfect, now it's too late.


----------



## humble_pie

are they issuing entirely new treasury shares, or is the block being sold to the public a secondary offering coming from FoxConn's holding or from the founder's holding?

ottomh i'd tend to imagine it's FoxConn's ...

argo did you not have another post recently along the same lines, how you feel frustrated because you can't buy into promising companies early enough in the pipe?

that's why i believe you'd make a good investment banker. Never mind looking for a few hot new shares for yourself. The real perks will come from packaging up a promising enterprise & selling it to the world for $100 million. Although you will have to get the creds first.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Lots of athletes using GoPro's to document their own journey to the Winter Olympics... they are all over the place in Sochi.

As long as GoPro doesn't rest on their laurels and continues to innovate, they will continue to be a growth story.

And after a bit of research, not too impressed with Chinese GoPro rip-offs....


----------



## Sherlock

It's official: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanmac/2014/05/19/action-camera-maker-gopro-files-for-100-million-ipo/

GPRO on the Nasdaq.


----------



## SkyFall

numbers seems pretty good!


----------



## SkyFall

IPO price range $21-$24 for market cap at $3bln


----------



## KaeJS

Do you folks really think there is room for GoPro to "grow" exponentially?

I mean, don't get me wrong. Great idea. Great product. I own one.

However, if I'm looking at buying a stock... I'm not looking to pay $21-$24/share for GoPro.

The only semi convincing argument I have seen is mode3's baby's first steps.


----------



## m3s

Lots of growth for GoPro in the family department. Baby's first steps.. kid's first bicycle ride.. kid's first ski run, high school sports etc. Parents will write blank cheques for video of that stuff (I made easy money selling video to parents)

GoPro is also targeting the music industry now. They are branching out and marketing to more than just extreme sports. The whole selfie trend is explosive for GoPro.. I see more and more young tourists walking around Europe with a GoPro on a stick


----------



## KaeJS

Hmm......

You do raise some good points, sour. Those are some things I didn't think of too deeply until now.


----------



## SkyFall

KaeJS said:


> Do you folks really think there is room for GoPro to "grow" exponentially?
> 
> I mean, don't get me wrong. Great idea. Great product. I own one.
> 
> However, if I'm looking at buying a stock... I'm not looking to pay $21-$24/share for GoPro.
> 
> The only semi convincing argument I have seen is mode3's baby's first steps.


hey long time I haven't see you on CMF  

I don't see it as a $21-$24 stock but rather a company valuation at $3bln which is pretty comfortable for me (with the financials they showed so far)

and as per m3s said... the application is huge huge huge! I see it everyday, news channels using it, musicians using it, army using it, etc....


----------



## KaeJS

SkyFall said:


> hey long time I haven't see you on CMF


Girlfriend takes up a lot of the free time I used to have.
More importantly.... I no longer have money to invest, so CMF seems to be a depressant rather than form of entertainment. LOL!

I guess I can see the application for GoPro a little more now. I don't think I would purchase stock as a personal preference.


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> *Girlfriend *takes up a lot of the free time I used to have.
> More importantly.... I *no longer have money *to invest


If the former responsible for the latter situation? ;o)


----------



## KaeJS

HaroldCrump said:


> If the former responsible for the latter situation? ;o)


Hrm.....

_sometimes._


----------



## SkyFall

its coming this week!


----------



## thompsg4416

SkyFall said:


> its coming this week!


Thursday they should be ready to buy. Intriguing. We'll see how easy it is to get some shares. I usually don't participate in IPO's and this one might be a bit rich.. I need to do some more research on this one.

G.


----------



## SkyFall

Here we go folks, tomorrow GPRO (actual thicker) will be on the market. It's a $24 (high-end of IPO price range) 

" _The company’s profit jumped 88% to $61 million last year, as revenue climbed 87% to $986 million._ "

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gopros-ipo-prices-at-high-end-of-expectations-2014-06-25-181034823


P.s. If a mods can fix the tittle I tried but apparently it's not working I want to remove the IPO from tittle and simple put " GoPro (GPRO) " thanks!


----------



## SkyFall

dammn was waiting the whole morning, but it was ''halted'' for a while and when I was finally driving to work it starts trading! I bought it at $31.44 now let's see what happen..... hope I wont be a sucker


----------



## m3s

I couldn't watch it so I just put a limit of $25 and hoped to ride it up. No Luck


----------



## blin10

this one is more of a trade, not investment


----------



## SkyFall

closed at $31.34 (up 30%)

Im down -0.32%


----------



## humble_pie

skyfall it was never really halted, it just opened late. This is typical with uber-popular IPOs, the market makers need time to sort out & match up the mountains of buy/sell orders waiting for them since early in the morning, so they're never able to make a market at 9:30 am sharp.

i'm not with those who'd trade GPRO short-term. It's a revolutionary camera with limitless horizons in every direction imho. We'll have to count on m3s & other longtime users to tell us whether cheaper knockoffs will be able to undermine the goPro consumer market (so far i believe m3 has been saying that the rivals are not up to snuff.)

absence of competition means that the goPRO line of cameras are the perfect product being pitched at the perfect price, at the perfect time. This is why i'd be a buy-n-holder.

if i'd bought today in the $31 range, i wouldn't be worrying even if GPRO fell into the low $20s.

for those like myself who didn't buy today, one could wait until the options appear, then start selling puts. Options in GPRO are surely going to have luscious premiums!


----------



## Kropew

I feel like it's never a good idea to invest in too popular stocks


----------



## SkyFall

Kropew said:


> I feel like it's never a good idea to invest in too popular stocks


at heart I am a value investor and I have Graham's principals as framework... but I am never limiting myself in the sense that I will speculate when I see a calculated risk.... i.e. like what I did with blackberry before the BB10, I saw the over-optimistic wave just before the launch of the BB10, I bought and dump it right before.... but I admit it was pure speculation. I see a great moat around GPRO and I believe in the capacity of the company to stay king of the hill for a while.

@ humble_pie I think the same way as you, I don't see anyone who can broke the moat around GoPro in the next 12-36months (at least) but as the news went on today GPRO is swifting to media content too (in addition to their hardware business).


----------



## m3s

The closest thing I can think of to GoPro was the iPod. They revolutionized a market and they have a passionate CEO. There are always diehards who say the Windows Zune or whatever is just as good on paper but fail to see all the other differences that makes one sell better.

GoPro is not just a hardware seller either. I see a growing internet media mogul here. They are very popular on social media, youtube etc. Similar to iTunes the ecosystem has advantages. They intend to stream directly to all the new internet TV devices. They could be a big part in the future of TV.

New BMW cars will have GoPro integration. The next step could be integration with motorbikes and other rec vehicles. Drones are improving and becoming more affordable for consumers. And the new catchphrase is wearable tech. GoPro could expand into other wearable tech.


----------



## SkyFall

^ totally right 

hey m3s did you finally had your hand on any shares?


----------



## Synergy

SkyFall said:


> closed at $31.34 (up 30%)
> 
> Im down -0.32%


Up about 20% as I type, nice buy so far - good job!


----------



## the-royal-mail

Up over 6% just for today.


----------



## m3s

You mean $6? I see it up 20% today! Might cool off a bit after the initial buzz


----------



## SkyFall

yeah this morning it went up to low $40s..... but now it's cooling down....


----------



## KaeJS

All I can say is: "Wow."

But good on all you folks that are making cake off of this.


----------



## SkyFall

GPRO closed at $35.76 (up by 14.18%)

I am up 13.74%


----------



## indexxx

One writer's thoughts on GoPro

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2014/06/26/gopro-went-amateur-on-their-ipo/


----------



## SkyFall

interesting article 

I have to agree the fact that spiking market cap can water down the valuation of the company but shareholder are still gaining from the appreciation of their shares.


----------



## m3s

indexxx said:


> One writer's thoughts on GoPro
> 
> http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2014/06/26/gopro-went-amateur-on-their-ipo/


I really hope the _CEO surfer dude_ gets back to surfing, enjoying the real life and making cameras for those who do before these Wall Street zombies destroy him and GoPro.

This ex-news-anchor-ex-hedge-fund-manager-turned-editor (because writing about investments online makes him more money?) who signs the article with "long on Facebook" claims to know what GoPro is about by taking his Great Pyrenees dog to the park? Whilst sipping a grandé hot soy with foam and wearing a suit I presume? It's all about money right?

If Facebook has nothing better to show for $19B of IPO funds than whatsapp, which will soon join the line behind mIRC, ICQ, MSN msger, BB msger.. then I'm not sure what his point is?

I think the CEO surfer dude was respectful to prospective shareholders by not overvaluing the IPO. I hope he can stay that way.


----------



## humble_pie

when the critics are saying that they goPro usage consists of prancing through parks with the cam hung on they dawg caller, then you know that the critics have not got anything much to say ...


----------



## m3s

Good catch, and a Great Pyrenese dog caller at that

It is concerning what happened to the money between $24 and $30. Did it all go to well-connected fund managers as he claims? If so I think this is yet another problem with Wall Street rather than GPRO. If bidding raises the IPO, why doesn't the company get some of that? If prospective buyers overvalue a house and bid up its price, the difference shouldn't all go to the agents..


----------



## humble_pie

m3 this was/is an important IPO & there was nothing wrong with it imho.

mister cody willard's other IPO references are all so recent, where's he been? IPOs for hot new issues are typically all over the map. Nobody can truly predict. The underwriters - the investment bankers who take on some risk - give pricing their best shot but they often don't get it quite right.

Google is one that soared out of the starting gate far above its IPO price & GOOG has never looked back. Were the GOOG underwriters wrong? never heard anybody say so ...

the bulk of the GPRO offering would have gone to big institutions. It's always like that with hot IPOs, the shares never go to the small fry. Useless to question imho. This is just How It Works.

even with hot offerings, the exchange authorities have always ordained that a small proportion be offered to retail investors. By retail investors, they mean here the wealthy top clients of the firm's best-performing full-service brokers. This is not exactly a democratic crowd, haha.

in canada, authorities have even ordained that a token few shares of a hot new issue must even be distributed to those discount brokers who deal in new issues. Such a discount broker might be allocated, out of a hot new issue, 100 or 200 shares. These go in seconds. There's no chance a regular customer of such discount broker will get any.

goPro was a US issue so my guess is there were zero retail shares earmarked for canadian brokers.

one hears that goPro's CEO arranged that a small allocation was made over to a particular financial house which was charged with a mandate to distribute those shares, at the IPO USD price of $24, to actual known goPro camera users.

it was only a tiny percentage of new shares issued, but it was - i think - a very sweet & sincere innovation. He (the CEO) could not have organized a larger offering for his camera buyers & owners, because the underwriters would have never allowed it.

on the day a hot new issue starts trading, all is madness & chaos, as you witnessed. Some issues go up, some go down. In GPRO, nothing abnormal has happened.

for mister cody to swish his bushy Pyrenese tail & woof that extra $$ billions got left on the table because the underwriters priced too low is a bit naiive imho. Perhaps he's envious that all he possesses is a dawg caller but no shares?

i've asked before if the shares that were IPO'd were actually from the Foxconn holding. Alas i'd have to dive into the prospectus to find out, but that's way too much work on a fine june weekend. However, i doubt that any of the principals whose shares made up the IPO offering are regretting a single thing. Certainly we don't hear them complaining, they're too delirious with joy over what the IPO has done to their remaining GPRO holdings.


----------



## SkyFall

Nice post humble_pie 


Alright I am very eager to see what will happen on monday....


----------



## SkyFall

GPRO closed at $40.55 (up by 13.39%) 

I'm up by 28.9% (excluding commissions and foreign exchange fees)


----------



## MoreMiles

Isn't GoPro like a one trick pony? At least Kodak tried different businesses before they went bankrupt. So why would GoPro be so successful? If they can, why wouldn't Kodak buy them a few years ago. This is one of the stocks that I don't get... just like SkullCandy, another narrow market IPO.


----------



## Toronto.gal

SkyFall said:


> *I'm up by 28.9%* (excluding commissions and foreign exchange fees)


Congrats, you're now up nearly 50%!! 

You did much better than with TWTER , right? I mean that you bought this at around 50% less IIRC.  [talking about % increase of IPO at time of purchase, not $ amount].


----------



## humble_pie

i would just like to say, in the midst of all the fireworks & festivities & excitement & hullaballoo over goPro, that i took a dive into the prospectus & brought up a couple of worrisome bits of detritus from the ocean floor.

of course, i wouldn't have spotted em, down there in the murky depths where folks don't look, without my trusty waterproof goPro Hero webcam ...

1) - the operating statement (below) shows net earnings dropping in the last reported quarter that ended 31 march/14;

2) - it will be interesting to see how Q2 ending yesterday 30 june/14 plays itself out; we should be hearing sometime around the end of july;

3) - goPro says it will use most of the $$ raised in the IPO to pay down $111 million in short-term debt that matures at intervals up to late 2015. This in itself is not a bad thing. However the 3 financial houses holding the debt - JP Morgan, Citibank & Barclays - are the same 3 houses whose underwriters just sold the goPro IPO. This is the worrisome thing.

often, when the lending banks are also the underwriters in an IPO & when the proceeds will be mostly used to pay down bank debt, what is really going on is that the bank or banks are taking the debt off their books & transferring it into the less-vigilant hands of the general investing public, who in a mania are often eager to buy up the hot new shares without too much homework ...

why did morgan, citi & barclays trim their sails at this point in time? maybe because the grand old BIS - the global lender of last resort - in grand old basle switzerland, said in its recent annual report that world markets have soared into euphoria & big money-centre banks should be trimming weak debt?

not that it matters, but the shares sold in the IPO came from founder & CEO nicholas woodman & family trusts, from foxconn, from venture partnership sageview & a few other insiders. Woodman himself will end up holding 48% of voting rights (there are both voting & multiple voting shares) so ownership control is going to remain firmly in the hands of the founding entrepreneur.

i haven't bought anything yet & probably will wait for the options, which should appear along with the Q2 financials. Quel fun story! a real canada day firecracker.
.


----------



## KaeJS

MoreMiles said:


> Isn't GoPro like a one trick pony? At least Kodak tried different businesses before they went bankrupt. So why would GoPro be so successful? If they can, why wouldn't Kodak buy them a few years ago. This is one of the stocks that I don't get... just like SkullCandy, another narrow market IPO.


You and me both, Miles. I don't get it.

One.Trick.Pony.



Toronto.gal said:


> You did much better than with TWTER , right? I mean that you bought this at around 50% less IIRC.


Always touting your lower price options. :encouragement:

SkyFall, you can learn a bunch from T.Gal....
I suggest you read every post she makes. She is a Smart.Gal



humble_pie said:


> i would just like to say, in the midst of all the fireworks & festivities & excitement & hullaballoo over goPro, that i took a dive into the prospectus & brought up a couple of worrisome bits of detritus from the ocean floor.


I would just to say, I actually enjoyed your post, humble. It doesn't happen often.

Thank you. :cheerful:


----------



## m3s

humble, you are very knowledgeable and I love to see such concrete posts like this on the forum. We need to encourage more sharing like this with references et all! I was aware of the quarterly earnings but not how IPOs work or how to trace this money. I did read the S-1 "registration statement" before the IPO.. I think GPRO is riding the popularity right now but who knows what will happen after Q2

As for Kodak, GPRO already has a much more complementary big business partner in Foxconn, whose expertise is manufacturing electronics. It's important that Nick Woodman still has by and large control, because other consumer electronics are just not as well made for the user. I read Foxconn declined to even add someone on the board of directors

Steve Jobs claimed the big tech companies were like giant ships, unable to maneuver with the changing times. He practically handed Intel the blueprints to the future and they just could not compute. Lots of big tech companies eventually fade out and I'm sure GPRO's time could come eventually. Some other big camera companies could go first though.


----------



## KaeJS

SkyFall said:


> GPRO closed at $40.55 (up by 13.39%)


To the folks who purchased GPRO...

I'm curious as to what price you guys are planning to exit your positions. What's the strategy, here?

At which price do you feel the stock is overvalued and has run it's course? The stock is now double IPO Price...

I mean - Would you buy it now? at $50?

I wouldn't buy it at $25. I can't imagine buying it at $50, or even holding it much longer...


----------



## SkyFall

@ T.Gal you are right this IPO is more successful for me in term of return than TWTR.

@ KaeJS, yes I do learn a lot from Tgal  she is wonderful I often pm her to ask questions. And regarding the exit strategy, I do have one, I will start unloading 20-33% of my shares pretty soon, the target I had now is $50.

I have to admit that I didn't expect the stock to soar like this... I was expecting a steady climb. This is a momentum play for me.


----------



## Jon_Snow

As someone who uses a GoPro every chance I get, I am enjoying my ownership of a couple hundred shares (bought in low 30's).

I have no idea what it's gonna do long term, but I love the idea of owning a small piece of a company I have a passion for.

This past weekend I tied my GoPro to a fishing line, dropped it close to the bottom (around 70ft down) and let it record for about 10 minutes. Got an extreme close up of a seals mug as he came to investigate. He even tried a cursory nibble. Awesome footage. I'd like to try it with orcas, but I'd be afraid they would swallow it.


----------



## KaeJS

Mr. Snow, that actually sounds really neat. I want to tie my gopro to a fishing line now...

If I end up doing this, I will post the youtube link for you folks.


----------



## humble_pie

m3 re tracing the money ... often the big funds that got the IPO shares in the first place wish to sell into a soaring post-debut market, like the market we see in goPro right now.

this is why lockdowns are imposed, to prevent em from dumping their shares at ginormous profit & skipping town.

still, they - the funds - will often have tried in advance to set up strategies with derivatives, warrants, convertible preferreds or convertible bonds. They'll short those vehicles if they can find em, because they know that they'll be locked down long with the new shares from the IPO.

prospectuses consisting of a few hundred pages of dense type are difficult to read rapidly on a screen. I had kind of an eye out for signs that there were large number of stock options or convertibles in play, but there did not seem to be such a theme in the goPro prospectus (that's a good thing.)

the GPRO shares sold to the public were Class A or limited voting. They have one vote each. Retained by the goPro insiders in private ownership were all the Class B shares, which have 10 votes each.

you can see how the "agents" are not the guys who are profiting from the meteoric rise in share price, right? the profiteers are the big fund guys who were first in line to receive the $24 shares.

it's true the underwriters are profiting to a certain extent in the over-allotment (extra shares they were allowed to take up & keep for themselves in the IPO, which is a standard feature.)

but their real profits came from their unbelievably fat fees as underwriters. Investment bankers are the princes & cardinals of finance. Can you imagine how exciting it would be to work on a deal such as goPro.

it's all the more fun because there aren't any rules. Meanwhile the stakes are breathtakingly high. Perhaps it's somewhat like modern warfare?


----------



## SkyFall

GPRO closed at $48.80 (up by 20.35%)

I am very lucky and fortune to be up by 55.22%


----------



## Jon_Snow

SkyFall said:


> GPRO closed at $48.80 (up by 20.35%)
> 
> I am very lucky and fortune to be up by 55.22%


Maybe you already mentioned it up thread, how many shares you have SkyFall?


----------



## SkyFall

Jon_Snow said:


> Maybe you already mentioned it up thread, how many shares you have SkyFall?


Hey Jon_Snow

No I didn't mention, I prefer not to disclose the number of shares... although it's nothing crazy, but enough to make me happy


----------



## SkyFall

I ran the numbers, and came down to maybe something in the range of 25-50% unloading...... tomorrow if the occasion is there.

I don't think the stock has much to give anymore (even on the momentum side)..... let's see tomorrow....


----------



## MoreMiles

It is obvious some big owners are manipulating the price. How else do you explain this 20% jump on no new product announcement? So it's like a music chair. Let's hope everyone playing gets a chair when the music stops.


----------



## humble_pie

options in GPRO will start trading on the CBOE next monday 7 july/14


----------



## SkyFall

Looks like the winning streak is over


----------



## humble_pie

the story is only just beginning imho


----------



## SkyFall

humble_pie said:


> the story is only just beginning imho


whats your point of view regarding the beginning of options trading next week


----------



## humble_pie

i'd expect that BAs during the first week or 2 will be erratic, unstable & wide as the gulf of mexico, but after the initial debut period, all standard option strategies will present themselves ...

at least, that's what i'd expect


----------



## SkyFall

GPRO fell to $41.90 atm


----------



## SkyFall

It was very hard to watch the stock this morning when it hit the lows.... was about to sell but told myself I would wait a few hours before selling... stock went up to $45s and I finally sold a $44.36 I made 41.09% return (excluding fees) for a profit of $12.92/shares.

I would like to Thank from the bottom of my heart T.Gal, boy she is amazing...she made me realize somehow that I was greedy and I accepted a 10% haircut on the all time high and left with a pretty good profit  T.Gal you are amazing!


----------



## Toronto.gal

SkyFall said:


> 1. I was greedy
> 2. I made 41.09% return....


*1.* Were you? It really would depend on your investment objective, but if you think so, I hope you came to that conclusion yourself, and not because of anything I said. At any rate, we've all been greedy!

The stock did rise about 75% since it began trading, so today's drop should not have given you heartache, but rather should have been expected.

*2.* No heartache in that, even if the stock were to rise another 75% by next week. 

For me, new IPOs are just tradable, but the interesting ones become attractive for longer term after the lockup expiration, new sales/products figures, etc.

Patience as they say, is virtue, although sometimes when you're too patient, you miss the boat.


----------



## SkyFall

Don't worry T.Gal when I read the pm I realize that GPRO wasn't at a level where I was comfortable.... I mean I was expecting an increase in the stock price but nothing near the pace it did. And I was thinking that the stock could go higher higher and higher but your pm made me realize that I forgot to base my decision on rational thoughts.

And I totally agree with you on the fact that early IPO aren't really reflecting the valuation of a business but more the momentum it has create.

Thanks again T.GAL


----------



## PatInTheHat

I see this continuing to slip into the mid 30s (maybe even low 30s) and then will eventually settle around $40 until they start showing us.


----------



## KaeJS

It's about time this thing started to fall. It took too long IMO.

Skyfall, if you ask me, you are lucky it even made it to $40 in the first place. :wink:


----------



## tygrus

Its a camera, you wear on your head, and its worth more than some resource companies now. A lot of mom and pops got talked into this junk again.


Its just another puff into the bubble again and pain is the end game.


----------



## SkyFall

To be honest, I was expecting a jump from the starting IPO price ($24) to maybe $26-$27... I was a little bit turn off by the low $30s but decided to do it again.... I was expecting the stock to increase by 15-25% on a 6-12 months period... NEVER expected that jump it did..... it went from a investment to a total gamble......

Thanks to T.Gal again..... I was very lucky to get the return I had


----------



## humble_pie

? so many nervous nellies & garrulous grannies here, tch

puff the magic dragon
you wear it on you haid
communications headgear is IT these days
don't leave home without IT










.









.









.


----------



## Toronto.gal

SkyFall said:


> I accepted a 10% haircut on the all time high and left with a pretty good profit.....


Even if it took some hesitation, you knew based on your objectives, when to take profits & protect your capital gains that went way beyond your expectations. 

What about if the stock had moved against you? [from the beginning I mean]. Remember that you need a plan for both scenarios.

LOL at the 'all time high'. :biggrin: Btw, I don't consider money left on the table, ie: paper gain, neither a hair-cut nor a loss.


----------



## SkyFall

T.Gal's wisdom will always make me feel better


----------



## humble_pie

puts are looking good. Maybe before earnings come out.

metatheta where are u now? please, we need one of those Eugenie Bouchard quadruple serves. 

they say that Genie at 20 years of age has been winning so dramatically because her moves on the court are impossible to figure out in advance.


----------



## m3s

I've neglected my options bible studies for awhile with so many distractions. Ze Germans are going crazy tonight

I could sell a GPRO put at 5 / $38 / Oct 17. Am I correct to figure that's the equivalent to paying $33 for GPRO, or $500 in my pocket?


----------



## humble_pie

38 would be a little too rich for my blood. If i wanted $500 i'd probably go out to a january 35.

right now i'm mindful of the sharp global market drops this week, i'm mindful that the underwriters believed that 24 was a fair price, for me it's still a bit too soon to sense the pricing in gpro.

if i would be selling plain puts & not an iron strategy, i'd also hedge by selling fewer of them, ie the cash balance would be kept higher. If i'd been planning to sell 5, now i might be selling 2.

but then, i'm no daredevil, just a cowardly custard

speaking of cowardly, yesterday i took a walk with little Goog. He's the younger, smaller cousin of my old pal Lonesome Goog, who alas is dying a lingering death these days.

little Goog cheered when i sold a naked put & collected $1010. He told how some reformers in the US are agitating to make multiple voting shares - the kind held by Goog's founders & also by goPro's founders - have a life of only 10 years.


----------



## MrMatt

I'm playing this through AMBA.


----------



## SkyFall




----------



## humble_pie

put sellers in waiting rejoice! stk has fallen below 39 ...


----------



## m3s

I was about to dip my proverbial toes into the option ocean yesterday with the selling of a put for 16Jan15/32 strike/5.35 last. My account permissions weren't set for options yet. I think there will still be volatility anyways until Q2 earnings announcement at least.

I was imagining if I had a GPRO video of all the crazy stuff I did as a kid. Could this be the $400 tickle-me-elmo of 2014? How would you play that with options? _It's_ a great gift for all the little boys and girls with _its_ hero like perspective and rugged case.


----------



## humble_pie

the jan 32 puts don't look so good to me, open interest is far too low

go where open interest is high because when it comes time to rock n roll there will be many more players & it will be easier to get out. If you look at open interest for jan 32 puts there are only 14 contracts. This field is so sparse that getting out will mean dealing with the one-eyed market maker. This is not what an option trader wants, a trader wants to deal in a liquid market where there are counterparties.

look now at open interest for the jan 35 & the jan 30 puts. Lots of players. They are where a sensible man has to go ... at least one who is on his proverbial toes ...


----------



## humble_pie

nasdaq website says goPRO will announce on 31 july:

_" GoPro, Inc. is expected* to report earnings on 07/31/2014 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2014. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 5 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.06." 

_
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/report/gpro#ixzz38Ilyrxk8


----------



## humble_pie

please tell me, goPro gurus, did apple come out yesterday with anything ruggedized enough to compete with goPro blacks & heroes?

there's no GPRO stock available for shorting anywhere in north america but in spite of the stratospherical price i would not be a buyer of puts. Christmas season is coming up. Nobody else has a competitor camera.


----------



## m3s

humble_pie said:


> did apple come out yesterday with anything ruggedized enough to compete with goPro blacks & heroes?


Do you mean the iPhone? It doesn't really compete, however GoPro has an iPhone app and anyone can make an app to control the GoPro (GPS fencing, triggers, sensor data overlay etc) The iPhone is not rugged enough for extreme sports and it doesn't have the Hero wide angle lens for close up action

Meanwhile GoPro stock is chugging along.. and there is a GoPro 4 is the works (coming in time for Christmas?) Looks like there will be the Black and Silver versions again, as well as a an entry level camera. I think GoPro will be a hot seller come wacky consumer season in a month or two

Here's some extreme ballet for you humble


----------



## humble_pie

thankx be for the existence of video, i would never be able to watch something as terrifying as this in reality.

dear lord, please tell me they are using some kind of invisible safety harness system.

do you hear their light, happy, musical laughter? this is the goPro signature i think. Crossing the physical body barrier into a dimension of pure child soul play. Effortless, weightless, innocent. All is newborn.


----------



## m3s

GoPro 4 in 4K


----------



## humble_pie

yea it's nice i guess - the Hero 4 video - but it's clearly a marketing commercial so less interesting imho

more real was the biker riding through clouds on the route des Alpes, on the roof of the world, on an endorphin high ...


----------



## m3s

GoPro stocks are up!

News of a GoPro drone product for next year


----------



## humble_pie

an ambarella tucked into an xmas stocking near you?

she's not a barbie doll. AMBA is the semi-conductor that powers all goPro camera products plus automotive dashboard cams & the new, small, wearable police video cams.

dragging AMBA down in the general market plunge are the roughly 15 million GPRO insider shares whose lockup agreement expires 23 december/14, permitting goPro insiders to dump stock that could increase the float by more than 40%. 

to avoid this lump of coal on christmas eve, many traders have lately been shedding goPro shares.

on the other hand, JP Morgan upgraded GPRO on 12 dec/14, raising the popular manufacturer of extreme sports videocams to overweight & setting a price target of $70.


----------



## m3s




----------



## humble_pie

this hockey video is transparently a sleek professional production but oh, my, what a heart-stopping vision they have created!

goPro took a big hit recently when AAPL announced it had received a patent for a ruggedized sports camera to be operated remotely from an Apple watch. But as one article says:

_Whether Apple will actually produce this camera is a big unknown at this point. The company routinely has patents issued for products that are never offered to consumers_. 

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Apple-receives-a-patent-for-a-mountable-sports-camera_id64775how 

m3 you are the goPRO/apple combo expert on here. Would you see a possible apple mountable cam coming maybe in 3 years as competition?

apple has the network & could livestream if it had the camera, while goPro has the dream camera but doesn't network yet ...

not that a dumb crumb would know anything but tentatively i'm thinking there's no competition for goPro on the horizon at present


----------



## GOB

I'm not the expert you are looking for but I highly doubt Apple will bother making their own mountable camera. It's not a big enough market for them to put the resources into developing and marketing it. They spend enough efforts on making the iPhone camera the best it can be.


----------



## humble_pie

a ruggedized camera is a challenge to build alright

but it's hard to see that the market is not big enough, there are automotive, police, military & construction applications right now, in addition to the startup market of extreme skiers, bikers & surfers.

as the video shows, any fast-moving sport needs a goPro (is there such a thing as a slow-moving sport?)

perhaps, in the end, aapl could buy gpro.


----------



## GOB

I'm not saying it's not a large market - just not large enough for Apple. Cost aside, Apple products need to appeal to hundreds of millions if not billions of people. A mounted camera does not do that. My opinion only. I would use a GoPro but I wouldn't buy one.

Apple, along with the rest of the smartphone industry, has obliterated the dedicated point and shoot camera industry. Go Pro has found a successful niche within that. I doubt Apple would want to get back into dedicated cameras. 

Go Pro has a good product and a great brand. I wouldn't worry about their success as a product. Not sure about their valuation though.


----------



## Wormiez

GoPro releasing their Q4 2014 earnings this Thursday,Feb 5. Should be a stellar quarter and year for them. 

Even though their stock took a hit when Apple released a similar camera patent..

This should be a good buy and interesting Q4 release. What is everyone thoughts on this?


----------



## Jon_Snow

I love my GoPro and use it a lot...bought some GoPro stock not long after the IPO - more for "fun factor"...but if I make money over the long haul, well, that's cool. :biggrin:


----------



## SkyFall

I have options on it, very little! a total gamble here before the release...


----------



## humble_pie

i'm running a 2nd suite of options in goPro - long, short, calls, puts, diagonals, strangles, there's a real minestrone simmering quietly on the back burner

this time i added a pinch of ambarella. Not an exotic herb but a real life custom chip mfg


----------



## Jon_Snow

Great earnings report. Looks like I may make a coin or two on this. :biggrin:


----------



## SkyFall

Jon_Snow said:


> Great earnings report. Looks like I may make a coin or two on this. :biggrin:


Ooh yeah!!!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Interesting to note the skepticism at the start of the thread. Those of us who were familiar with the product knew better.


----------



## SkyFall

Jon_Snow said:


> Interesting to note the skepticism at the start of the thread. Those of us who were familiar with the product knew better.


serious! FML!!!!

GPRO down 13% !!!! arrggggghhhh!!!!!

at least it was just a small option gamble play

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102394621?trknav=homestack:topnews:1


----------



## Jon_Snow

I got my 200 shares around $30. Still feel great about it. Can't begin to explain a 13% drop after earnings like that. Whatevs....hope to get some underwater footage of orcas this Summer. I will post the video here if successful!


----------



## Wormiez

LoL.. The Fundamentals sure don't work well on the american market .. Great quarterly results = Crushing stock..

The high and lows of trading... :cower:


----------



## SkyFall

investing/trading the most humbling job these days hahahahha


----------



## humble_pie

stunning results beat all expectations
for Q1, goPro guided to a hair under expectations
forecasting .15-.17 vs expected 17 cents.

meanwhile COO nina richardson has resigned.

stock is plunging after-hours tonite
down $8.06 to $46 & falling;
always something going on 
in "extreme action" land

price might stabilize by 9:30 am para la manana when option exchanges open
but if still speculatively low, could be a good time to sell OTM puts


----------



## humble_pie

Jon_Snow said:


> I got my 200 shares around $30


perfect each:

knee-jerk after-hours trading should blow over


----------



## KaeJS

I am glad some of you made killer money on this. I am a little jealous. 

Though... This is all I have to say: P/E 201.62 

The earnings results are horrible! Why are you not all running for the hills?!
Somebody that owns this stock please tell me they agree that the financials are a little bit off...


----------



## SkyFall

Hey Humble can you elaborate on your option strategies? I really wanna learn.

KaeJS, sometimes the stock is completely off with the financials... so I like to take my chance but of course always minimum exposure as possible.


----------



## KaeJS

Skyfall, everything reverts back to the mean. Eventually people will realize GPRO isn't worth as much due to low profit, low eps and high p/e. This is in part why it is no longer in the $90's...

I will help you out with what humble is saying:

She is saying that if you think the stock is going to continue to go up in future, you can make premiums on the current stock price by selling OTM Puts. When you sell a put, the buyer is going to pay you money (the premium) to protect their downside. This allows you to make money on the stock through premiums, with the hope being that the stock increases in value and you (as the put seller) are not assigned to purchase shares at the strike price in the event the stock price falls lower.


----------



## GOB

KaeJS said:


> Skyfall, everything reverts back to the mean. Eventually people will realize GPRO isn't worth as much due to low profit, low eps and high p/e. This is in part why it is no longer in the $90's...
> 
> I will help you out with what humble is saying:
> 
> She is saying that if you think the stock is going to continue to fall, you can make premiums on the falling price by selling OTM Puts. When you sell a put, the buyer is going to pay you money to protect their downside since they own the stock LONG. By selling a put, you are effectively short, not long. This allows you to make money on the stock through premiums, even when the stock price is falling.
> 
> Here is a good example of what humble is referring to (this is not my example, I stole this):
> 
> _"If you are very bearish on a stock, sell OTM covered puts. Then you have extra profit potential. If you sell short 100 shares of stock for $5.25 per share, you could write a $5 OTM covered put and get a premium of, say, $0.50.
> 
> If the stock closes below $5 at option expiration, you must buy the stock for $5 producing $0.25 capital gain ($5.25 short sale, minus $5) in addition to the $0.50 premium already received; and you can use the stock to cover your short (return to the lender).
> 
> Otherwise, if the stock doesn't close below $5 at option expiration, the stock won't be sold to you. You must then buy stock on the open market to cover your short. As long as it's below $5.75, you profit."_


Uh, selling a put is not being effectively short. When you sell a put, you are hoping to pocket the premium without being assigned the shares (usually). This happens when the stock is above the strike price at expiration, which means you want it higher rather than lower. If the stock drops after you sell a put, you either have to buy the put back at an increased premium (loss) or get assigned shares at a price higher than it will be trading (unrealized loss). 

Long calls, short puts -> bullish
Short calls, long puts -> bearish

I hope you just got confused momentarily, but if not you should not be trading options.

What humble is saying is that because she is long term bullish on the stock, she wouldn't mind selling puts to pocket extra premium after it's been sold off, because she projects that the stock will recover.


----------



## Jon_Snow

This is why I prefer to buy GREAT companies, some of which pay dividends, and hold these companies for a LONG time. So simple. So beautiful.


----------



## humble_pie

> "If you are very bearish on a stock, sell OTM covered puts. Then you have extra profit potential. If you sell short 100 shares of stock for $5.25 per share, you could write a $5 OTM covered put and get a premium of, say, $0.50.
> 
> If the stock closes below $5 at option expiration, you must buy the stock for $5 producing $0.25 capital gain ($5.25 short sale, minus $5) in addition to the $0.50 premium already received; and you can use the stock to cover your short (return to the lender).
> 
> Otherwise, if the stock doesn't close below $5 at option expiration, the stock won't be sold to you. You must then buy stock on the open market to cover your short. As long as it's below $5.75, you profit."



a strategy like this would never apply to GPRO.

a stock like goPro is not about 25 cent penny profits.

when it comes to options, there's no use trying to put words in my mouth.
i says what i means & i means what i says.


----------



## KaeJS

GOB,

You are correct. I goofed.

Humble is hoping is that since GPRO has come down in value, that by selling puts she can collect premiums and will hopefully not be assigned as GPRO will head upwards to recover some of that loss instead of continuing to decline.


----------



## Lucida

KaeJS said:


> Skyfall, everything reverts back to the mean. Eventually people will realize GPRO isn't worth as much due to low profit, low eps and high p/e. This is in part why it is no longer in the $90's...
> 
> I will help you out with what humble is saying:
> 
> She is saying that if you think the stock is going to continue to go up in future, you can make premiums on the current stock price by selling OTM Puts. When you sell a put, the buyer is going to pay you money (the premium) to protect their downside. This allows you to make money on the stock through premiums, with the hope being that the stock increases in value and you (as the put seller) are not assigned to purchase shares at the strike price in the event the stock price falls lower.


Revenues were 633.9m and gross profit was 330.1 (taken from CapIQ), since when is 52% gross profit low? Or were you referring to something else when you said low profit?


----------



## humble_pie

folks are tippy-toeing around that feb 17 date, when the lockup of recently issued shares expires.

_EDIT: the shorts are chortling that half the float is in that lockup & all of is going to be offered for sale at the exact same minute on the 17th day of february anno domini 2015, the shares will plunge below $20 & it will be the end of the world for goPro longs ...
_
i didn't sell any more goPro puts in the recent tumble since i'd already sold a few jan 35P of 2016. But oh, my, they do look tempting. Jan 35 puts are 3.90-4.50, last at 4.25 & i would not sell for less. Jan 30 puts of 2016 are 2.20-2.75, last at 2.50.

a bullish combo based on 2017 LEAPs calls at 17.20-19.80 looks reasonable to me, too, except they're priced too high imho. Although 6 traded today at 18.50 i'd be looking to pay - all other variables being the same - no more than 17.60-17.90. Need to await lower volatility.


----------



## Lucida

Been dropping like crazy these past few days


----------

