# Air Canada



## 1sImage

Up .20c in 2 days. Whos in? 

I think its going back up again.


----------



## MoMoney

Too late junior. 

Its up almost 180% from just 6 months ago.


----------



## doctrine

#1 rule of investing: Do not invest in airlines. No matter how tempting it may seem.


----------



## 1sImage

MoMoney said:


> Too late junior.
> 
> Its up almost 180% from just 6 months ago.


I know, I know, I was trying to convince my father. He has them @1.88, he was gonna when it was .80 but didnt. I keep sending him an update to rub it in a bit.


----------



## Cal

Stay away form investing in airlines.....


----------



## 1sImage

Up to 2.36 today.


----------



## thenegotiator

it looks like many people missed this mega rally.
pitty


----------



## w0nger

I've been riding this wave since $1.44 ... happy to hold on to it still.


----------



## thenegotiator

w0nger said:


> I've been riding this wave since $1.44 ... happy to hold on to it still.


:encouragement: do not forget that the trend is ur friend when it ends.
congrats


----------



## blin10

Cal said:


> Stay away form investing in airlines.....


i agree, it's more of a gamble then investing... but sometimes gambles pay big


----------



## Ag Driver

Coming from one who works in the aviation industry, I wouldn't touch an airline stock with a 10' pole...


----------



## 1sImage

Stock has been tearing it up lately , got in at $3.48 with a 1000 shares a few weeks ago... Hit $4.89 today.

May keep it for a bit and see where it goes.


----------



## Kalergie

What's the quickest way to become a millionaire? You are a billionaire and invest in an airline.


----------



## Nemo2

Ag Driver said:


> Coming from one who works in the aviation industry, I wouldn't touch an airline stock with a 10' pole...


Or an 8' Hungarian.


----------



## 1sImage

Kalergie said:


> What's the quickest way to become a millionaire? You are a billionaire and invest in an airline.


$4 away from +$1500 in 22 days
2 clicks away from selling...
1 button already pushed

Tell when to push that second button...


----------



## nakedput

never understood why people would ever invest in an airline that has been losing money for decades.


----------



## 1sImage

1sImage said:


> $4 away from +$1500 in 22 days
> 2 clicks away from selling...
> 1 button already pushed
> 
> Tell when to push that second button...


Yup, I quoted myself...
+1810, still one hand on the sell buton


----------



## 1sImage

Sold +1830 or +1840, can't remember...

See yah.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Jackpot this morning for those that have been holding this stock.
It is going completely ballistic, berserk.


----------



## JordoR

Yes at an entry of 6.01 I'm definitely enjoying the rise today. I hadn't planned on an exit strategy this soon as I wasn't expecting this sharp of a rise, but might have to reconsider.


----------



## 2tire2work

Just because I sold at $7.10 today. It's gonna pass that $9 mark in a few days. But couldn't resist that 18% gain.


----------



## JordoR

Hard to complain about Air Canada. Bought on the sharp drop back in January and has been climbing steadily ever since. Nice gain today! I think my planned exit point is at $9


----------



## JordoR

Nice steady increase in Air Canada in the last little while. Up to $8.70 this morning. To anyone that holds a position, what are you planning on holding it to? I had originally thought I would exit at $9 but am re-evaluating a bit based on how fast it reached the mark. Still at $9 I would be at a 35% increase, so I should probably not get greedy


----------



## 2tire2work

Its more than $10 now. What a run.


----------



## JordoR

^^ Indeed. I got out at $9.50. Interested to see how much higher it could rise, but I was happy with my nice profit in a few months time.


----------



## james4beach

AC.B dropped a whopping -8.2% today but on relatively normal volume, 8.4 million shares.

It's now at $8.50 and likely heading to its 200 day moving average at $7.75-ish

If you're going to gamble on a volatile stock, you have to be able to stomach these large moves! I have a long position in this, which I will mention again, I consider pure gambling -- not investment


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> AC.B dropped a whopping -8.2% today but on relatively normal volume, 8.4 million shares.
> 
> It's now at $8.50 and likely heading to its 200 day moving average at $7.75-ish
> 
> If you're going to gamble on a volatile stock, you have to be able to stomach these large moves! I have a long position in this, which I will mention again, I consider pure gambling -- not investment



of course your recently-acquired-at-peak-prices stocks are investments! James4 u can't shimmy out of this mess with sophistic semantics. 

btw how's that valeant? dropped by more than 8.2% since u bought it, did valeant.

.


----------



## james4beach

humble_pie said:


> of course your recently-acquired-at-peak-prices stocks are investments! James4 u can't shimmy out of this mess with sophistic semantics.


Exactly as I wrote: they are pure gambles. I didn't read any of the financial statements nor did I analyze their valuations. Instead I bought them for technical uptrends: they are total speculations, gambles.

_You're_ the one who insists that any stock purchase is an investment. I'm the one who said they're gambles, especially when you buy individual stocks without at least reading their financial statements.



> btw how's that valeant? dropped by more than 8.2% since u bought it, did valeant.


I'm down -11% on VRX, down -14% on RMP. That's the risk I take on when I decide to speculate and gamble in the stock market


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> Exactly as I wrote: they are pure gambles. I didn't read any of the financial statements nor did I analyze their valuations. Instead I bought them for technical uptrends: they are total speculations, gambles.
> 
> _You're_ the one who insists that any stock purchase is an investment. I'm the one who said they're gambles, especially when you buy individual stocks without at least reading their financial statements.
> 
> I'm down -11% on VRX, down -14% on RMP. That's the risk I take on when I decide to speculate and gamble in the stock market



horrors! this is supposed to be a forum about serious investing. James your reputation is flying out the window, terminally moving into la-la-ponziland ...

EDIT: surely you realize that, at today's rates for those GICs that you love so much, it is going to take you more than four years to recover your losses & break even in valeant ... assuming the VRX share price remains stable & does not decline further ... which unfortunate outcome i am in fact expecting ...


----------



## james4beach

You're right that this is supposed to be a forum for serious investment. I still think many people fool themselves about what they're actually doing with their money.

And on your second observation, now you know why I have much more money in GICs/bonds/cash than stocks


----------



## yyz

james4beach said:


> And on your second observation, now you know why I have much more money in GICs/bonds/cash than stocks


And now you know why you're probably on track to retire when your ..... 90? 95? Never?


----------



## yyz

james4beach said:


> AC.B dropped a whopping -8.2% today but on relatively normal volume, 8.4 million shares.


That is also well above its 2.4M average volume.


----------



## HaroldCrump

james4beach said:


> Exactly as I wrote: they are pure gambles. I didn't read any of the financial statements nor did I analyze their valuations. Instead I bought them for technical uptrends: they are total speculations, gambles.
> ...
> I'm down -11% on VRX, down -14% on RMP. That's the risk I take on when I decide to speculate and gamble in the stock market


James4B, isn't this telling you that whatever you are doing aint working?
You must also be down on TOU, or break-even at best.

Whatever technical indicators you are using are either not working or you are not reading/interpreting them correctly.

Most momentum/swing traders cut losses around 7% - 8%, and definitely at 10%.
Why haven't you cut these double-digit losses by now?

Why are you not reading financial statements and analyzing valuations?

Methinks you are being cavalier with your new-found income and buying in at all time highs and convincing yourself that you are a momentum/swing/technical/whatever trader.

It is often said that one should play to one's strengths.
Your strengths are detailed analysis, valuations, and risk management - not this wishy-washy day trading.


----------



## Toronto.gal

*HC:* Considering how J4B feels about stocks [permabear], do you really believe that he: 'Recently bought AC.B/ATA/RMP/TOU/DSG/GIB.A/IFP/VRX at multi-year highs?! 

I think he was just pulling people's legs.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Hmm...so he was just having us on?
I guess I took the bait...serves me right for being away for 10 days :biggrin:

What's the purpose - to create more traffic and hits for the website?
Or just to get us quibbling amongst ourselves, while he watches from a distance - out there in California, Washington, or Oregon, wherever on the west coast he is.


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ The purpose? Mocking stock buyers isn't exactly new to him, is it? His explanation as to why he bought all those stocks at such highs just 'to look at fundamental metrics to help him determine growth phases' makes no sense, not for 8 such stocks considering when he purchased them.

A) How often does he post in the 'what r u buying thread' [almost never?], B) did he post during market corrections?, C) what comments does he give to those that buy stocks? Here is just the latest example from post #5371 of same thread: 

*'I'm kidding ... nobody cares of course. Keep buying blind everyone You're gambling; that's OK, but make sure you call it gambling.'*

Anyway, off-topic now.

Welcome back!


----------



## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> *HC:* Considering how J4B feels about stocks [permabear], do you really believe that he: 'Recently bought AC.B/ATA/RMP/TOU/DSG/GIB.A/IFP/VRX at multi-year highs?!
> 
> I think he was just pulling people's legs.


This is definitely interesting.

I can't imagine j4b buying an airline. You're doing a whole lot of gambling, j4b. Why not just go to the casino and put everything on red (or black, if that's your thing)?


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> _You're_ the one who insists that any stock purchase is an investment. I'm the one who said they're gambles, especially when you buy individual stocks without at least reading their financial statements.


Not all stocks are investments.
Not all stocks are gambles.

Not knowing which stock is an investment and which stock is a gamble makes investing in stocks a gamble.  :biggrin:


----------



## humble_pie

let's not beat up on james4. There are reasons why he goes on the way he does.

it was obvious from the very beginning that ... james4 was not a fixed-income advisor to conservative hi-value investors although he said he was ... nor did james4 ever short CROCS although he said he did ... nor did james4 pull off a massive market short in 2007/08 although he said he did ... nor was it a friend who writes greatponzi dot com - which james4 liked to quote - but rather it was james4 quoting himself as perpetualbull, another username he fancies ...

me i've always liked james4's commentaries on banks. I'm not saying i subscribe to his views. But i believe that banks' toes should be held to the flames & james4 does this as well as anybody possibly can.

but imho there's too much smoke & mirror trickery going on with our james. It's not even clear whether he believes his own stories or not.

james, perhaps you could just stick to stuff that you're good at? you know, stuff that's real. Banks. GICs. The odd XIU type etf.
.


----------



## Toronto.gal

What I dislike is that CMF members are constantly & unfairly labelled 'pure gamblers'. Is CMF a casino then?

Other than that, each to their own.


----------



## HaroldCrump

What is that picture?
Looks like an abstract haze...
Does it indicate James4's state of mind?
Or stock investing? :biggrin:


----------



## humble_pie

it's hair

he had a little curl
right on the middle
of his forehead


----------



## humble_pie

Toronto.gal said:


> What I dislike is that CMF members are constantly & unfairly labelled 'pure gamblers'.


you're right, it is unfair
i'm not a gambler
t.gal you're not a gambler

oh, no!
james must be the one who is the gambler!
he's the bad egg!
thank you dostoevsky


----------



## james4beach

The difference between my speculation in markets and the rest of yours (like humble's) is that I am *aware* that I'm speculating.

Many of the rest of you aren't even aware of the risks you take on.

In addition, I'm willing to admit that something I bought went down. You don't always make money in speculation, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. I engaged in a strategy that will only work if momentum buying continues and trends stay intact. If uptrends and bull market continues, my gambling portfolio will make money. If markets turn bearish, then all bets are off.


----------



## HaroldCrump

james4beach said:


> I engaged in a strategy that will only work if momentum buying continues and trends stay intact.


Huh? That is tantamount to saying _my trade will make money if I am right. If I am wrong, my trade will lose money_.



> If uptrends and bull market continues, my gambling portfolio will make money. If markets turn bearish, then all bets are off.


Frankly, James4B, *WTF*?
Try saying this aloud back to yourself and you will realize how ridiculous this sounds.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> If uptrends and bull market continues, my gambling portfolio will make money. If markets turn bearish, then all bets are off.


This scenario also applies to millions of "gamblers" like yourself.

j4b, I have beat the market consistently since 2011 (which was the first year that I started trading). Even in 2011, when the markets were poor and the TSX fell by over 11%, I still posted a 4% positive IRR.

For 2014, I am up over 50% YTD. 

Now, I am no pro. There are others who are better than I am, but I wouldn't say that I am gambling. If we were going by your gambling logic, then Mr. Law of Probability and Big Bad Murphy would have kicked my *** by now.

I was being facetious but also being serious before when I said: _"Not knowing which stocks are investments and which stocks are a gamble makes investing in stocks a gamble."_

The other thing is, j4b, that at this stage in the game, you shouldn't really be "long" anything, other than some core holdings. It's fine to be "long" some REITS and some Bank Stock, but apart from that, you should be watching Gold Stocks and having your trigger ready to short some things. The bulls are worn out, my friend.

With some basic thought process as well, if you had the chance to own any company in the world, which one would you pick?

Would you really pick Air Canada over McDonalds? I wouldn't.
Would you really pick Air Canada over Coca-Cola? I wouldn't.
Would you really pick Air Canada over RioCan? I wouldn't.

So why are you *gambling?*

EDIT: j4b, I am not trying to be a pain in the ***. I am trying to help you.
Did you have legitimate reasons for picking the stocks you have chosen and proof to back up why it might be a good idea?


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> EDIT: j4b, I am not trying to be a pain in the ***. I am trying to help you.
> Did you have legitimate reasons for picking the stocks you have chosen and proof to back up why it might be a good idea?


I have a technical analysis based method that's algorithm-based. I've back tested it against market data going back to the early 2000s, and found it offered good returns.

I was long AC from 2014-06-26 until 2014-12-31, bought at 9.27 and sold at 11.87 for a *+28% profit*.
I was long AC from 2014-12-31 until 2015-06-14, bought at 11.87 and sold at 13.83 for a *+16.5% profit*.

While you guys sat on this thread hammering away at me, I made 28% profit followed by 16.5% profit.

Getting back to the thread topic:
Air Canada may now again be bouncing off its 200 day moving average, and resuming its uptrend.


----------



## Nordic

james4beach said:


> I have a technical analysis based method that's algorithm-based. I've back tested it against market data going back to the early 2000s, and found it offered good returns.
> 
> I was long AC from 2014-06-26 until 2014-12-31, bought at 9.27 and sold at 11.87 for a *+28% profit*.
> I was long AC from 2014-12-31 until 2015-06-14, bought at 11.87 and sold at 13.83 for a *+16.5% profit*.
> 
> While you guys sat on this thread hammering away at me, I made 28% profit followed by 16.5% profit.
> 
> Getting back to the thread topic:
> Air Canada may now again be bouncing off its 200 day moving average, and resuming its uptrend.


Been long since $8.73; shareprice is like a rollercoaster, but its long-term trend is certainly upward.


----------



## james4beach

Exactly, that long term trend is certainly upwards (for 3 years now). But it's very volatile.


----------



## Spudd

james4beach said:


> I was long AC from 2014-06-26 until 2014-12-31, bought at 9.27 and sold at 11.87 for a *+28% profit*.
> I was long AC from 2014-12-31 until 2015-06-14, bought at 11.87 and sold at 13.83 for a *+16.5% profit*.


Why would you sell AC and re-buy it on the same day? You wanted to book your profit in 2014 for tax reasons?


----------



## Beaver101

^ Because he wants to back up this:



james4beach said:


> I don't buy many individual stocks but this is part of an experimental portfolio construction I've been toying with for the last couple years. I've been running it as a simulation-only for a while, but now I decided to throw some money on the table. The amount of money is peanuts (I own odd lots of each of these stocks) but I figure I won't discover the problems with my strategy until I put actual money into it. I just want to be clear everyone... I think individual stock picking is gambling and I treat this as a gambling portfolio, with gambling money. I acknowledge that I may suffer tremendous losses.
> 
> I do not consider this investing, it's gambling (and that's generally how I view buying individual stocks)
> 
> Also even with these purchases, stocks are still a tiny part of my net worth


 ... :wink:

james4beach, since you told some members that you were not investing just gambling & experimenting with very few shares & buying at multi-year highs, would you care to share the real costs and profits of the gambling experiment? : :biggrin:


----------



## james4beach

Sure, it's a tiny number of shares. The fees swamped my profits.

The first part of it was, buy 71 shares AC.B at 9.27 and sell at 11.87
Cost 668.17, proceeds 832.77, for a net profit of $164.60

I *do* consider it gambling, and it's fun!


----------



## humble_pie

james4 did you put back your micro holding in valeant after you'd sold it first time around?

that - 2nd time around - would have been a bit of alright


----------



## james4beach

humble_pie said:


> james4 did you put back your micro holding in valeant after you'd sold it first time around?
> 
> that - 2nd time around - would have been a bit of alright


I had VRX until the end of 2014. But unfortunately I did not keep it in the next time step.

However I did buy 3 shares of VRX on 2015-06-15 at $283.93, now it's $325 (up 14%)

Don't tell me you're jealous of my 3 shares!


----------



## james4beach

By the way I don't claim that my picks all make money. My current portfolio is down -5.7% (June-til-now)


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> I did buy 3 shares of VRX on 2015-06-15 at $283.93, now it's $325 (up 14%)
> 
> Don't tell me you're jealous of my 3 shares!




i have more than 3 shares, so not jealous in the least .each:

it all started out innocently enough with old Biovail, which i used to buy in the $12-15 range.

then biovail was taken over by valeant of california & the meteoric rise began.

from the Wall street journal 17 july/15:

_"Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. on Friday said it would acquire Amoun Pharmaceutical for $800 million, the latest deal for the acquisitive company.
"The purchase of Egypt’s biggest drug maker marks Valeant’s push into the Middle Eastern and African markets. The company said it expects Amoun to serve as a platform for further expansion in the regions."_


this deal didn't happen by accident. If one looks at the locations of valeant's subsidiaries, they're mostly located in the balkans & in eastern europe. Valeant has been looking to grow in the middle east most of its recent life.

it's this middle east potential that's driving the stock imho, although all the analysts plus the folks who follow VRX in this forum do keep nattering on how acquisitions-doubling-new-products-quality-although-debt-is-high-yada.


----------



## james4beach

Congrats on your VRX exposure. What an incredible performance on that stock!

I am building a portfolio methodology (admittedly it's computer-driven) but it seems to track the TSX Composite quite well. That's why I've been experimenting with these small values until I gain more confidence. This is in lieu of a TSX index ETF, which I cannot buy due to American tax laws.

What I'd really love is some volatility and a down market, so I can see how my portfolio methodology responds to a weak market. In the up market, my portfolios have consistently beaten the TSX. I won't know the whole story until we get a few quarter of negative TSX.

Current portfolio until end of this year is: AC, CLS, DSG, IFP, GC, PSG, PLI, VRX


----------



## humble_pie

such an interesting list ... but it can't be described as any approximation of a TSX index ETF, which would inevitably have heavy concentrations in finance & resource stocks.

this is a carefully selected mini mutual fund list. It looks to me like a momo list.

james you've been able to navigate along like a tightrope artist, without a single despised bank each: nor have you succumbed to even a token from the severely beaten down oil patch. Nor does any hint of a gold stock grace your momo portfolio, although one might have expected that gold would be one of your favourite sectors.

although i'm not inspired to run out & buy these stocks - apart from VRX which i own already - i think this list is intelligently chosen. Best of luck with these picks, james4, please keep us posted how they're doing.


----------



## james4beach

Thanks, humble! I'll do you one better: I started a thread for this (admins: feel free to move that thread if need be).

You are correct that it is not a representative sample of the TSX and, as you observe, it's somewhat of a momo lst that chases high performers. I do like gold... I hold physical metals and CEF.A (and have for many years) but no, mining stocks do not quality for this portfolio currently.


----------



## jerryhung

AC ER this week!!

AC is +6% today!!
or +10% in last 5 days, but -2% last 30 days, so it's all relative


----------



## james4beach

Now tell me that _doesn't_ look like it bounced off its 200 day moving average. This thing's long term uptrend continues


----------



## Nordic

james4beach said:


> Now tell me that _doesn't_ look like it bounced off its 200 day moving average. This thing's long term uptrend continues


AC is still very much influenced by day-traders, so yes technical analysis certainly can be used to figure out when to buy/sell. I've tried to move out and back in a few times myself but hate finding myself out of position if it moves the wrong way, so both times I ended up jumping back in shortly afterwards. Holding long for the long-term still; will sell about 20% of my shares at $16 and put the money into Cominar REIT (CUF.UN) assuming CUF is still in the $16-17 range whenever that time comes.


----------



## jerryhung

over $13 in a RED day, weird, same as WJA
+1~1.5%


----------



## thepitchedlink

SO, what do you guys think.....is this one gonna soar for a few weeks???? Certainly glad that I grabbed WJA last week....I don't want to be too heavy into airlines....but seems like Mr Market might be realizing that this industry is doing rather well


----------



## james4beach

You're asking about just a few weeks? Total gamble, could go either way (as any stock is). Don't fool yourself into think it's anything other than gambling


----------



## thepitchedlink

Ya, I'm wondering about the next few weeks/ 2-3 months.....I don't want to hold any more airlines for too long....but I certainly would hold AC for a while if I get the feeling that it's going to continue up for a little while...but Im not looking for a long term hold right now


----------



## Nordic

People selling their AC shares at $10.75 today is beyond insane. 

I note there was a $1.2 Million share buyback that took place yesterday; good on AC for buying back its shares at a huge discount.


----------



## cashinstinct

Huge discount? Where was AC when their stock was $1-4 from 2009 to 2013?


----------



## Nordic

Pre 2013 AC was like a completely different company. They have massively more income and cash flow now, and a much better balance sheet.


----------



## james4beach

As I'm holding AC in my speculative portfolio, I certainly hope it recovers. I own 155 shares... let's make daddy rich.

To me, Air Canada's chart puts it in the realm of momentum and trend-following stocks. I think these kind of stocks do great when the bull market is firmly established, but could do horribly if the bull market ends. e.g. in a strong market, everyone chases the trend on stocks like AC resulting in fabulous returns.

Conversely, in a weak market -- or a bear market -- people abandon their speculative purchases, and dump stocks like AC because they know it was just a momentum play.

Now that we had that big market decline, there's a risk that the bull market is over. There's no way to tell right now. I think AC's price movement will be more about the broad market strength. If you believe that this month was just a brief hiccup and that the bull market is still "on", you will want to stay long. If however you think the bull market has ended, then you will probably wait for a rally in AC and sell the rally to close your position.

I'm inclined to think that the bull market is ending, but I am keeping my AC position because I'm following a methodology linked above. This may turn out to be a horrible mistake, which is why I only own 155 shares


----------



## humble_pie

back to james4's momo stock picks including AC & VRX, in valeant the CEO recently confirmed what i was mentioning upthread, in message # 56.

the company's primary focus - although not exclusive focus - is now the middle east, CEO Mike Pearson told a video journalist. "No other pharmaceutical company is working in this [region,]" he said.

valeant is also the company that just bought Sprout, maker of the first libido-enhancing drug for women, in a hyper-priced $1 billion deal.

is valeant planning to market sprout's female drug - called Addyi - heavily in the middle east?

if so, contemplation of future possibilities can lead to considerable merriment. What will a suddenly-assertive Addyi-dosed female population do to arch-conservative, male-dominated islamic cultures?

possibly Addyi could turn out to be the west's best possible weapon against ISIL.


----------



## supperfly17

humble_pie said:


> possibly Addyi could turn out to be the west's best possible weapon against ISIL.


ahahah good one Humble. One could only dream.


----------



## Nordic

Mark my words, AC will be at least $16-17ish this time next year (>33% from today)


----------



## Nordic

One hell of a quarter. How long can the market ignore profits like these?


----------



## CPA Candidate

They make money but it's not going to shareholders, but to creditors and pension plans. Their debt levels are truly frightening. The modern market place doesn't seem to care about balance sheets, though. Its all about the EBITDA, baby. Just ask VRX shareholders!


----------



## Nordic

CPA Candidate said:


> They make money but it's not going to shareholders, but to creditors and pension plans. Their debt levels are truly frightening. The modern market place doesn't seem to care about balance sheets, though. Its all about the EBITDA, baby. Just ask VRX shareholders!


Their debt isn't a big deal IMO; note that over the past year they've cut their deficit in half. The crazy-high profits will allow them to cover their debts quite easily after they put everything into eliminating the pension deficit over the past couple of years. Also, the increase has been to fund the acquiring of the 787s, something I'm more than okay with.


----------



## thepitchedlink

I averaged down a bit today...any one else watching


----------



## james4beach

humble_pie said:


> back to james4's momo stock picks including AC & VRX


It's worth mentioning that I sold AC at $10.64 back on 2015-12-09. You can see my DIVZ portfolio tracking thread for these actions when I update my portfolio every 6 months.

I no longer hold AC or VRX. My method is to chase momentum stocks, yes, but also to quickly abandon them once momentum dies.


----------



## NewBrunswick

Nice ralley this week!


----------



## Nordic

After having great results from WJA, TRP, and BBD over the past couple months, I increased my AC holdings by 25% today. *Crazy* undervalued @ $8.33.


----------



## Nordic

Nordic said:


> After having great results from WJA, TRP, and BBD over the past couple months, I increased my AC holdings by 25% today. *Crazy* undervalued @ $8.33.


After reporting a $100M profit, AC is still just as undervalued at its current share-price price of $9.20.


----------



## jargey3000

good call yesterday nordic! are you saying AC still has wings? to soar? ( @$9.22 as I type...)


----------



## Nordic

jargey3000 said:


> good call yesterday nordic! are you saying AC still has wings? to soar? ( @$9.22 as I type...)


AC should be $14-18 a share if it was rationally/reasonably valued, so yes. It cannot stay below $10 for very long; the market has to start valuing it rationally at some point.
[This is all assuming Canada doesn't have a consumer debt-crisis event soon, of course.]


----------



## Hippie

Wow, nice call. i wanted to jump on some yesterday, but funds were tied up in other trades.


----------



## REVMAX

*got in with AC at 9.22*



Hippie said:


> Wow, nice call. i wanted to jump on some yesterday, but funds were tied up in other trades.


I got in at 9.22$. I am confident about it since the travel industry is growing at a pace of 4% per year on a global average, but, Our Canadian country is losing market shares passing from 7th position on tourist arrivals to 17th position AC need to be competitive on the outbound market since more and more candians are travelling to other countrys.. their development plan is about growing connections to other countrys.. its all good, we just need to wtach the energy cost, if it goes up, the margins will plunge down quickly..


----------



## kelaa

From the balance sheet, the income attributable to shareholders was $101 million, but the quarter also had a pension liability adjustment of -$819 million, so the shareholder equity is back to negative again, after coming in positive for a single quarter in 2015 Q4. What is the end game here? It'll be a long time still before it gets to any meaningful book value.


----------



## Nordic

kelaa said:


> From the balance sheet, the income attributable to shareholders was $101 million, but the quarter also had a pension liability adjustment of -$819 million, so the shareholder equity is back to negative again, after coming in positive for a single quarter in 2015 Q4. What is the end game here? It'll be a long time still before it gets to any meaningful book value.


That was due to GoC bond rates dropping a fair bit compared to q4 2015. In q2 2016 GoC bond rates have reversed back upwards.
I loaded up big-time on AC this morning @ $9.10; a 3.6 P/E is lunacy.


----------



## Nordic

I expect the usual post-quarterly-results >5% spike in share-price, in a few hours at the open here...


----------



## kelaa

This stock has a huge disparity between the market price and TD's analyst price target ($21). You hear a lot of people saying stay away from airlines for investments. And yet, that 100 % return potential... I haven't made any money on this one yet, but it sure has given me a lot of anxiety. How am I supposed to make any money from this anyways if no one wants the stock? I'll sit back and be contend if AC pays out 100 million a year in dividends, but I don't see how that can happen any time soon.


----------



## jerryhung

If I ever break even on AC (my cost $10.6, sigh), I'll sell all and never look at another airline/auto stocks
today low -7.5%/$8.74 is really oversold


FT has some links to Gary's link to why airline prices are low vs. record profit
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-...-s-profit-tops-estimates-fuel-costs-fall.html


----------



## doctrine

Revenue and income look great, but debt is way up. They're aggressively adding capacity at the peak of the market. Arguably they should be aggressively paying down debt for the next collapse such that they're the only one left standing if prices or demand collapse or if costs (oil) rise.


----------



## Nordic

Can't say I've ever seen a stock open up 2.2% after earnings and then end the day down 4.77%, but alas this is Air Canada price action we're talking about. I added more @ $9.03.

Currently has the lowest Price-to-Earnings ratio of all >500M market cap companies on the TSX.


----------



## kelaa

What has been happening lately?

I see some correlation to the US airlines. And the debt refinancing and repayment is positive. But is the main movement from technical traders jumping in? The fundamentals have not changed very much in the last few months.


----------



## jerryhung

It reached $11.77 today...before it turned RED
What an insane run in the last week, $9.3x to $11.7x

52 week	6.81 - 12.29

5 Day +17%
1 Month +24%

Finally we're catching up with WJA YTD (both around +11%)

https://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:AC


----------



## Nordic

I just swapped all my common shares for long-dated call options. Gonna let it ride! 
Expect $18 by 2018, barring any major market events.


----------



## james4beach

Nordic said:


> Currently has the lowest Price-to-Earnings ratio of all >500M market cap companies on the TSX.


Trailing P/E doesn't mean much.

What's the forward P/E based on guidance or extrapolation of results?


----------



## Nordic

james4beach said:


> Trailing P/E doesn't mean much.
> 
> What's the forward P/E based on guidance or extrapolation of results?


Was probably similarly excessively low. I just happened to use trailing at the time as it relies less on speculation/estimates and can be easily compared to hard numbers of the rest of the TSX companies. 

I'm holding my options until share-price hits $16; will need to hedge for a few days in November (US election) by shorting the index as well.


----------



## Nordic

AC up 43% over the past month.


----------



## thepitchedlinkagain

And dropping today......bounce on Monday?


----------



## etf7506

*Air Canada?*

Wow what a drop......ideas? If there was any company that would have a bail out would this not be it? Our really only national airline..... (West Jet I guess also).


----------



## Money172375

Italy is re-nationalizing Alitalia. Could happen with others.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## robfordlives

A bailout would mean massive equity dilution. No way the gov't bails out an airline for billions and saves the common holders at the same time


----------



## gardner

Chorus (Jazz) says that they have cash to stay solvent, but don't say anything about the ongoing costs or how they are dealing with the workforce. They do mostly regional flying -- I don't know if that is shut down, diminished or still happening. In any event, I think much of the contract flying Chorus does is paid for whether AC uses it or not.

https://chorusaviation.com/chorus-aviation-provides-statement-on-covid-19/

Chorus had 5% of their aircraft on lease with Flybe which kicked the bucket 2 weeks ago.


----------



## doctrine

Air Canada has over $8 billion of long term debt. It has no way to repay it.


----------



## Money172375

Ag Driver said:


> A large number of us Airline pilots lost our jobs and those who have not lost them yet are hoping they hold a good seniority number.
> 
> AC will likely lay off soon.
> 
> “Air Canada, Canada’s largest airline, announced it will gradually suspend its international and U.S. flights by March 31 and drastically cut its domestic and cross-border schedules until at least April 30.
> While it will operate flights in the short term to repatriate travellers stuck abroad, after April 1 it plans to cut the number of airports it services internationally to six from 101; in the United States to 13 from 53; and domestically to 40 airports from 62.”
> 
> WJ/SWOOP - 691 pilots laid off (25%)
> Encore - 249 pilots laid off (50%)
> 50% of the cabin crew laid off
> 
> Sunwing - 475 pilots laid off (100%)
> Well over 1500 of the cabin crew laid off (100%)
> Porter - I'm not sure of the number, but the entire company and support staff laid off (100%)
> 
> Transat, Jazz, AC....all are coming.
> Northern bush operators are even laying off.
> 
> This is worse than 9/11.


Thank you for the info. What is the source? Any news on what happens to customers with booked air canada flights in April?


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## Money172375

Ag Driver said:


> Source? My notice of layoff, along with the majority of my career/lifelong friends.
> 
> We are on the front line repatriating Canadians home today, knowing we have no job tomorrow. It is a very difficult position to be in, but I'm proud of my fellow professionals that are showing up to work with me.



Sorry to hear....I missed that in your other post. I’m enamoured by planes and pilots. In Clearwater, passengers walk right up to the plane in the outdoors.......I was thinking...”how is this thing gonna get off the ground”. Then in the air, we had some turbulence and I was thinking how there are 2 guys up front in the cramped space responsible for hundreds of us. I wish I had learned to fly....my son is encouraging me to take some lessons in my 40s. 

Godspeed to you and your colleagues! I hope the situation turns around quickly for you.


----------



## londoncalling

Ag Driver said:


> A large number of us Airline pilots lost our jobs and those who have not lost them yet are hoping they hold a good seniority number.
> 
> AC will likely lay off soon.
> 
> “Air Canada, Canada’s largest airline, announced it will gradually suspend its international and U.S. flights by March 31 and drastically cut its domestic and cross-border schedules until at least April 30.
> While it will operate flights in the short term to repatriate travellers stuck abroad, after April 1 it plans to cut the number of airports it services internationally to six from 101; in the United States to 13 from 53; and domestically to 40 airports from 62.”
> 
> WJ/SWOOP - 691 pilots laid off (25%)
> Encore - 249 pilots laid off (50%)
> 50% of the cabin crew laid off
> 
> Sunwing - 475 pilots laid off (100%)
> Well over 1500 of the cabin crew laid off (100%)
> Porter - I'm not sure of the number, but the entire company and support staff laid off (100%)
> 
> Transat, Jazz, AC....all are coming.
> Northern bush operators are even laying off.
> 
> This is worse than 9/11.


I am sorry to hear about the unfortunate circumstance you are , and many are or soon will, experiencing right now. A lot of people are oblivious to the self less sacrifice people are making in the world today. I have been spending the bulk of this week running many scenarios to determine courses of action that could jeopardize people's health and finances. I am currently self isolated (fly internationally on Friday) to protect those on the off chance I may be affected or a carrier. As I result I am not in any harms way but could play a hand in the future of many workers. I think we may (we as a species) need to sit back and think about how people who may be facing termination of employment are still doing their jobs for the sake of others in this time. I am sure I will miss a group or industry here but airline/transportation, grocery/food service, health care and pharma, hotels, delivery courier, to name a few of the more obvious ones. Thanks for sharing the information you have for whatever reason. I am a regular flyer and I am grateful for the sacrifice and service of our airline workers. I know in any industry where people need to deal with the public we get to see all kinds of people. You get to see the best in people sometimes and at other times the worst. In times such as this we need everyone to be their best or at least treat others the best they can. Safe travels.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## MrBean

Does anyone thing AC might go bankrupt? I'm guessing there would a proper bailout.


----------



## james4beach

Ag Driver said:


> We are on the front line repatriating Canadians home today, knowing we have no job tomorrow. It is a very difficult position to be in, but I'm proud of my fellow professionals that are showing up to work with me.


You guys are heroes and I appreciate what you're doing. You _should_ be proud! A big thanks to you and every other pilot, and the entire crew (flight attendants and support staff)

I recently sent a letter of thanks to Sunwing, who is also running rescue flights and which got me back home recently. I'm one of those travellers who left back when travel was OK and warnings (and cases) didn't exist. I found myself in a foreign country when things sharply escalated. I am thankful that the airline even kept bringing empty planes, the rescue flights, to get people out. I sent both a letter to the airline thanking the pilots, crews, and management, and also sent a letter to my MP talking about the vital service the airlines are providing and asking that they are financially supported.

No response from the MP but the airline did respond and said they circulated the letter among employees. I was happy to hear it helped boost spirits.

I wrote a bit along the same lines here: https://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/139996-Coronavirus-(COVID-19)/page92

Sadly, many Canadians do not understand or appreciate the great lengths the flight crews and the airlines themselves are going to, in order to help their customers. Fuelling and running empty planes with _no new paying customers_ is an incredible money drain with disastrous business results. On top of that, as Ag Driver writes, these crews have all gotten layoff notices. They are putting themselves in harm's way, with potential exposure, even when their job is not continuing.

They (both the workers + corporation) are doing all of this to help the customer, help fellow Canadians.

A big thank-you and appreciation. I've sent my letters and am happy to do more if you can suggest anything, Ag Driver. I really saw the airline (Sunwing in my case) functioning at their best, and I've travelled around the world enough to know a good airline experience from a bad one. This was a great experience and the airline really pulled through.


----------



## Arnak

Air Canada took quite a plunge this month. I wonder what the chances are for it to go even deeper? I mean, it's not like we can take their business away from them much more than that. Any thought?


----------



## andrewf

Uhh, there is a chance that equity gets wiped out (goes to zero) and the government recapitalizes (aka nationalizes) them. The firm may survive (quite likely), but equity holders may not enjoy the ride.


----------



## Arnak

Hi Andrewf. Thanks for your reply. 

What would be the consequences for the equity holders?


----------



## cainvest

Arnak said:


> What would be the consequences for the equity holders?


This happened before with Air Canada in 2003/2004
Read this -> https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/new-air-canada-shares-to-begin-trading-oct-4-1.518551


----------



## Arnak

Scarry! Thank you for sharing. 

From what I can read online, they were in a much better financial health before this latest crash than they were before things turned bad for them 15 years ago. But I guess there's always a risk. You gave me food for thought. Thanks

Thanks again


----------



## doctrine

Air Canada is actually much better off then the last crisis. But what is fair value? They are trading at book value, not at a discount, and are surely going to lose a pile of money. The stock is only at about a 3 year low and still way up as much as 100% from 2016. I would think for such a troubled industry which might take a few years to recover, that I would want to see a bigger discount, especially to book value.


----------



## Arnak

Good to read the news today about the gov of Canada helping with the salaries. That's a lot of people getting their jobs back at Air Canada



https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-canada-hiring-wage-subsidy-1.5525926



That doesn't give clients to the company again though.


----------



## junior minor

No, Arnak, and I read somewhere that it costs them quite a lot on a daily basis like that when their flights are grounded.

That's interesting none the less. but I would wait prior to investing. Many months of lockdown to come yet. 

So technically, it could be more trouble then it's worth. *Because when they did go bankrupt last time, all the stocks from the previous company were reduced to no value whatsoever. *









 Will Air Canada go bankrupt again?


Air Canada bankrupt? Seventeen years ago Wednesday, Air Canada filed for protection under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act.



www.cantechletter.com






How bad is it? Consider this recent take.

“By the end of May-2020, most airlines in the world will be bankrupt,” said a recent report published by the Centre for Aviation (CAPA), a market intelligence agency for the aviation and travel industry.









Could Air Canada (TSX:AC) Be Headed for Bankruptcy and its Stock Headed to $0?


Air Canada (TSX:AC)(TSX:AC.B) stock is crashing with no bottom in sight, and with bankruptcy fears on the rise, should investors still consider the airline?



www.fool.ca





While the airlines are far better than they were prior to the Great Recession, they could still be on the brink amid the pandemic-driven downturn. You see, the airlines are better positioned to ride out a cyclical, structural downturn, but not a pandemic-driven crash that puts the airlines in the dead centre of the bear’s cross-hairs.

Had this been a structural decline, I have no doubt that the airlines wouldn’t be in need of a bailout this time around. But boy, a pandemic is an entirely different beast. Instead of reduced demand for seats, international and transborder flights were shuttered to slow the spread of the deadly disease known as COVID-19.


----------



## Arnak

You're right. I read on CBC News this morning that Newfoundland are saying this could last until November for them. It's the longest projection I read so far lately. Not good for vacations and travel.


----------



## james4beach

Arnak said:


> You're right. I read on CBC News this morning that Newfoundland are saying this could last until November for them. It's the longest projection I read so far lately. Not good for vacations and travel.


I think COVID-19 will continue to be a threat well into next winter and into 2021. I think it could come back quite strongly along with seasonal flu.

I am a frequent traveller (normally) and quite healthy, but I would not dream of buying a plane ticket to anywhere, even for next year. Not until we have a better grasp on this disease.

But things could change. With extensive testing, including antibody tests, we might find that everyone already basically has it. If that's true it would tell us that the disease is actually not extremely dangerous (to healthy people) and then we can all return to life as normal.


----------



## privateEquityExec

I bought Air Canada when it dropped to about $13ish recently, and am still holding it. My thinking was that there's no way the Canadian government would let this company go under. In addition to that, I felt that the price had too much emotion priced into it. Of course, there's a legitimacy to it in the sense that future earning have dropped, but I think the market over corrected with too much emotion packed in. What do you guys think? Is this a good buy moving forward? Or should I sell off and take the profits.


----------



## doctrine

They didn't let it go under before, but it doesn't mean shareholders won't be wiped out. At least you got it at a slight discount to book, but there is no value in the current price for me.


----------



## moderator2

There were several duplicate threads on AC. I've merged them into this original thread.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## doctrine

I hear a lot from new investors about buying AC stock recently. I shudder. I'm surprised the stock is above $10. It's currently trading at a premium to book value.


----------



## james4beach

Ag Driver said:


> AC is retiring 79 tails. All E190, 767 and 319 parked as of today. This will have an enormous ripple effect on the industry.


Can you tell us what this means? Does this mean all E190, 767, 319 are done flying *permanently*? Or would they bring them back if business improves?


----------



## Portent

I read somewhere that those planes were being used as a stopgap for the 737 max. No need to keep them running without any demand, may as well retire them and deal with it later. That said, there was a bloomberg article where Air Canada is saying they expect this to be felt for at least 3 years. They're predicting large staff cuts as well....


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## Money172375

Airlines will have smaller fleets with less flexible routes and less frequent routes......for the foreseeable future.


----------



## james4beach

Ag Driver said:


> This is permanent. It is also not a stopgap for the max. The E190's are parked immediately. The 767 and 319 with be "out in time" according to the CEO.
> 
> AC is expecting +24 MAX and +14 220s in 2020. Thus net -41 aircraft. There is an equipment bid for pilots and you can expect layoffs dating back into 2017/2018 once the bid is complete.
> 
> That being said, AC really only requires a few hundred pilots today. They are just burning money, so I would not be surprised if the layoffs go deeper.


Unbelievable.

I had a vivid 'air travel' dream last night. In a smallish plane, something like a CRJ, approaching the Greater Toronto Area... I was watching our position over the lake.

Back on the stock... I'm also surprised that the price isn't much lower.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Back on the stock... I'm also surprised that the price isn't much lower.


Maybe the market has built in room for it to slowly go down until chapter 11.


----------



## agent99

doctrine said:


> I hear a lot from new investors about buying AC stock recently. I shudder. I'm surprised the stock is above $10. It's currently trading at a premium to book value.


I agree - What would anyone even consider it. Last time they failed, I think that even the bond holders lost all or part of their investments. As with Alitalia, best solution may be to nationalize AC. Maybe offer others like Westjet , Transat etc alternative bailouts, perhaps equity based.


----------



## undersc0re

Imagine....government takes on operations end of year....mass layoffs....no pensions....stock goes to zero. Would that surprise anyone really.


----------



## Beaver101

A bailout for the too-big-to-fail? After it's Air-"Canada".


----------



## gardner

What is the new debt that AC is issuing today? Is this to finance the Air Transat buyout?



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/air-canada-announces-offering-shares-201700519.html





> announced that it has commenced a marketed public offering of Class A Variable Voting Shares and/or Class B Voting Shares of the Company ("Shares") for gross proceeds of approximately C$500 million [ ... ] and a concurrent marketed private placement of convertible senior unsecured notes ("Convertible Notes") for gross proceeds of approximately US$400 million


Going on for $1B of new money for "general corporate purposes". I suspect they'll need it to keep running, but it seems like a lot to ask investors for unless they have a specific acquisition in mind.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## doctrine

$1B buys them 45 more days of burning through money. They should have laid everyone off faster. AC isn't worth considering above $10 and maybe not even above $7-8 - 50% to book value after writedowns is needed before even bothering to look further.


----------



## alexincash

Even if you bought into AC now, realistically speaking the airline industry will take at least a full year to bounce back, and who knows if AC will continue to be relevant late 2021


----------



## doctrine

AC is the #1 buy by Canadians trading on Wealth Simple. It's not a huge number, but there are legions more signing up to brokerages all over Canada and the US.

This burst of millennial day trading is quite interesting. Look at the volume on JETS - one of the top purchases on mobile trading apps in the US. Billions is going into it and bidding up the price of US airlines.

It's just a strange phenomenon and unexpected I think. The bots and hedge funds will figure it out soon enough and if the millennial are wrong, they will find a way to make them eat it. They definitely ate it on USO.


----------



## junior minor

Yeah, right there on the money, doctrine, I've seen something similar happen with the HOU etf whereas people coughed up a lot of dough into it and all of a sudden, after it did burst sky high, it was impossible to take those dollar back.
_that same website published a very similar article last year_








Don’t bet the farm on Air Canada stock, this investor says


if you’re optimistic feel free to buy a beaten up stock like Air Canada, says Mike Newton. Just make sure its a pretty small position in your portfolio.



www.cantechletter.com





and as it did happen years before, I would guess this could be very

“I had a big rally and then I got my head handed to me right away,” he said. “But the key to that is that the position was very small. I don’t remember if it was a point five per cent or one per cent.”

Newton said even optimists need to tread cautiously with stocks like AC, “if you are in the camp that things are going to get better and you say to yourself that ride-sharing like Uber and Lyft, hotels like Marriott and Hilton, airlines, travel agencies … that any of those categories are going to have explosive upside.”

“This is where it becomes really interesting because to start sniffing around in some of these battered areas is not a bad strategy but I wouldn’t be going guns ablazing into that space,” Newton said.

“Probably the best strategy if you’re interested is to take a small position with the understanding that you’re going to average in on it between now and September,” he said.


----------



## james4beach

What I find more intriguing is that millennials have spare cash to invest; how does this happen when nobody is employed any more?


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> What I find more intriguing is that millennials have spare cash to invest; how does this happen when nobody is employed any more?


Unemployment was at record lows until March, and everyone has had government assistance. Millennials may not have hundreds of thousands of dollars, but they do have thousands, and are making a difference in several markets, as there are millions of them signing up at brokerages.

It reminds me a lot of the late 90's as young people surged into stocks. There are people making money, and losing money. There are sketchy investments being made, daytrading and penny stock investing, but there are a lot of people buying solid companies and also stock indexes. This may be the start of a new long term trend of millennials investing in their future, as for many of them this is their first time.


----------



## alexincash

doctrine said:


> Unemployment was at record lows until March, and everyone has had government assistance. Millennials may not have hundreds of thousands of dollars, but they do have thousands, and are making a difference in several markets, as there are millions of them signing up at brokerages.
> 
> It reminds me a lot of the late 90's as young people surged into stocks. There are people making money, and losing money. There are sketchy investments being made, daytrading and penny stock investing, but there are a lot of people buying solid companies and also stock indexes. This may be the start of a new long term trend of millennials investing in their future, as for many of them this is their first time.


Investing in general is trending with the younger generation, probably due to advancements in financial education (not necessarily from school classes but more so from Internet access) and we're seeing the "new wave" Gen Z enter the stock market too.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> Unemployment was at record lows until March, and everyone has had government assistance. Millennials may not have hundreds of thousands of dollars, but they do have thousands, and are making a difference in several markets, as there are millions of them signing up at brokerages.
> 
> It reminds me a lot of the late 90's as young people surged into stocks. There are people making money, and losing money. There are sketchy investments being made, daytrading and penny stock investing, but there are a lot of people buying solid companies and also stock indexes. This may be the start of a new long term trend of millennials investing in their future, as for many of them this is their first time.


That's very interesting, thanks for sharing. Good point that millennials apparently have a few thousand dollars.


----------



## james4beach

I am much less comfortable flying now that Air Canada is not going to leave middle seats empty.

I took 3 domestic flights with AC since COVID, and was comfortable (and felt safe) only because the plane was pretty empty. There was nobody sitting beside me, and usually there was an empty row on one side.

But this has changed now with AC's announcement. I won't be flying any more in the coming months. Since AC will be filling middle seats, I can't be assured there will be this kind of space any more.

BC health authorities said they were very disappointed with AC and WJ making this decision, and said they fear this will lead to more infections.

I wonder how many people (like me) are stopping flying now because of AC's decision. I can't see myself buying another ticket until AC restores the empty seats, or the government (hopefully) forces them to.


----------



## Topo

james4beach said:


> I am much less comfortable flying now that Air Canada is not going to leave middle seats empty.


I wonder if AC would allow passengers to buy the middle seat and leave it empty. That could be an option, provided they honor the sale and not fill it up when the flight is oversold (they could play all sorts of games those airlines!). The best situation would be if a window and aisle seat share the price of the empty middle seat, but that is something that practically only the airlines or travel sites can reasonable arrange.


----------



## james4beach

Topo said:


> I wonder if AC would allow passengers to buy the middle seat and leave it empty. That could be an option, provided they honor the sale and not fill it up when the flight is oversold (they could play all sorts of games those airlines!). The best situation would be if a window and aisle seat share the price of the empty middle seat, but that is something that practically only the airlines or travel sites can reasonable arrange.


I would be willing to pay extra for an empty seat beside me (or buy a spare seat for myself), but the airline would have to build that capability into their system... I'm not sure you can buy two seats with the same traveler name.

The government could also legislate and require the empty seats and then compensate the airline. I'm not a policy maker so I don't know which route is best.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> I would be willing to pay extra for an empty seat beside me (or buy a spare seat for myself), but the airline would have to build that capability into their system... I'm not sure you can buy two seats with the same traveler name.


A quick google search says some airlines allow you to book two seats.


----------



## Topo

james4beach said:


> I would be willing to pay extra for an empty seat beside me (or buy a spare seat for myself), but the airline would have to build that capability into their system... I'm not sure you can buy two seats with the same traveler name.
> 
> The government could also legislate and require the empty seats and then compensate the airline. I'm not a policy maker so I don't know which route is best.


Best way would be to email or call to see if they would honor purchase of an extra adjacent seat.

Apparently one could buy an extra seat for a musical instrument that needs to be handled with care, such as a cello. I guess it may be time to pick up the guitar and learn a few riffs; for fun and as a future travel companion.


----------



## james4beach

I'm not even sure how much extra protection comes from one extra seat. The problem is that AC is loading the planes and there are just more bodies in there, in total.

I talked to someone I saw today who just came back from the airport. She flew on a domestic AC flight and I asked her, how full was the plane? What was it like? She said ... it was completely packed full, she was scared.

That's completely different than my last 3 flights, when the plane was, at most, half full.

I'm going to stop flying for now. If Air Canada wants my business, they will need to lighten the loads. Since I would be flying to see my (older) parents, there is no way I want to take the risk of picking up the virus and THEN bringing it to them.

I think Air Canada is being totally irresponsible here. They have their business reasoning, and I make decisions with my own money too. My health comes first above all else.


----------



## kcowan

We are returning from PV via Dallas on AA and upgraded to business class to get the extra spacing. No baggage allowance and no meal/drinks service.


----------



## james4beach

kcowan said:


> We are returning from PV via Dallas on AA and upgraded to business class to get the extra spacing. No baggage allowance and no meal/drinks service.


That's a good idea. You might also want to minimize talking, because it also encourages others to open their mouths (which endangers you).

Can you get your hands on a mask of some kind? Can always tie a bandanna at the back of your head.


----------



## kcowan

james4beach said:


> That's a good idea. You might also want to minimize talking, because it also encourages others to open their mouths (which endangers you).
> 
> Can you get your hands on a mask of some kind? Can always tie a bandanna at the back of your head.


We have been wearing masks since March. Like AMEX, we don't leave home without them.


----------



## james4beach

Coronavirus: Airlines are filling middle seats — how risky is it to sit in one? - National | Globalnews.ca


As of July 1, both Air Canada and WestJet will begin selling middle seats again.




globalnews.ca





Copy & pasting from article:

However, Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto, said he was “appalled” to learn that airlines have decided to return to selling middle seats, saying that this should “absolutely not be going on.”
. . .
_“_So an airplane is a disaster,” he explained. “You can’t get away.”

*He said he “absolutely would not get on an airplane that is selling a middle seat.”

“And I would never advise anyone to do that,” he said.*

Furness said he doesn’t think the middle seat on airplanes should be sold until there is a vaccine against the virus.


----------



## james4beach

We currently don't know the transmission rate of COVID-19 on flights (how many times someone catches it on the plane and then comes down with the infection later).

Heard on CBC radio: Transport Canada says there are not any known instances in Canada of a real transmission on a flight, someone catching COVID-19 during a flight. However, an expert guest also commented that the tracing is very poor so there could in fact be transmissions and we just aren't aware of them. The contact tracing which connects new COVID-19 cases to specific flights is very poor, apparently.

I'm going to continue avoiding all air travel for now, at least until the middle seats open up OR we have more data on whether transmission actually is happening on flights.


----------



## james4beach

This article on US air travel cites various studies on how infectious diseases spread on planes:

Airlines Stumble Ahead With Covid Plans That May Heighten Risks

Diseases like influenza certainly do spread on flights. But there are no studies (no data) on what happens if everyone is wearing cloth masks. Obviously, the masks help, but I wonder how much.

It's possible that when everyone on board is wearing masks, and keeps them on, that the risk may be quite low. Why isn't the government studying the infection story of flight attendants and flight crews? If they have been going through this pandemic but have the same COVID rates as the general public, that would prove that flying is no more dangerous than other typical activities.

Does anyone know if this is being measured and reported?


----------



## MrBlackhill

What is up during this sell off? AC

No clue why would that make any sense, but anyways... that's my only stock in the green, so I'll take it.


----------



## james4beach

AC up 22%, likely due to promising developments on a COVID vaccine.


----------



## fstamand

james4beach said:


> AC up 22%, likely due to promising developments on a COVID vaccine.


They may also qualify for a government bailout.


----------



## doctrine

AC is an interesting opportunity, but I'm not buying it, only because I wonder if it might take 2-3 years for air travel to fully return. Their margins are pretty thin, they might not make money in 2021. I would rather buy a beaten up company that has a path to profitability soon after the vaccine is out. And they also retired a ton of planes, and have a lost a lot of money. It might be 2023-2024 or maybe even 2025 before their retained earnings are higher than 2019. A lot can happen in 4 years.


----------



## james4beach

fstamand said:


> They may also qualify for a government bailout.


Doesn't have to be a bailout. Can also just be liquidity support. When the Canadian banks were in distress in 2008-2009, the government and central bank gave them over $200 billion in liquidity & assistance. Mostly in the form of loans that were repaid (liquidity).

That precedent has been set *and Canadians (even Conservatives) love it*. So I think we should expect similar amounts of assistance for Air Canada, Westjet & aerospace companies... obviously they are just as important as banks. They deserve to get the same kind of thing, perhaps $100 billion, or $200 billion in interest-free loans.

@Eder @MrMatt @Eclectic12 would agree, I'm sure. They have pointed out that when the public gave (free) loans to the banks, it wasn't a bail out. Similarly Air Canada should be able to survive, without a bail out, just by getting liquidity.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Doesn't have to be a bailout. Can also just be liquidity support. When the Canadian banks were in distress in 2008-2009, the government and central bank gave them over $200 billion in liquidity & assistance. Mostly in the form of loans that were repaid (liquidity).
> 
> That precedent has been set *and Canadians (even Conservatives) love it*. So I think we should expect similar amounts of assistance for Air Canada, Westjet & aerospace companies... obviously they are just as important as banks. They deserve to get the same kind of thing, perhaps $100 billion, or $200 billion in interest-free loans.
> 
> @Eder @MrMatt @Eclectic12 would agree, I'm sure. They have pointed out that when the public gave (free) loans to the banks, it wasn't a bail out. Similarly Air Canada should be able to survive, without a bail out, just by getting liquidity.


I am okay with some forms of liquidity controls. It's a governmental tool structured into the financial system.
It's one of the tools they maintain explicitly to control the financial markets.
It is important to note that they still charge interest on these loans.
This is also why some people want to move to cryptocurrencies which don't have these manipulators built into the system.

I am not okay with interest free loans, or taxpayer backed loans.
Assuming that the carriers meet the capital requirements, I have no problem with extending loans. 
But the airlines aren't, which is why nobody will lend them money. The airlines have an solvency problem, not a liquidity problem.

Now if you think airlines are strategically important services to have (as I do).
I am okay with government supports continuing the operation of a strategically important service.
However that means that they should declare bankruptcy, like other important industries (ie GM bailout)
1. Shareholders will not have an ownership stake in the new company
2. Bondholders will take losses.
3. Bonuses will be heavily restricted to senior staff.

I think the precedent of subsidizing failing businesses with tax dollars, just so investors and executives get rich has been set, and I think that's one we have to end. I hate it. I don't personally know anyone who "loves" giving bailouts to companies so that owners and executives can award themselves massive bonuses.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> I am not okay with interest free loans, or taxpayer backed loans.
> Assuming that the carriers meet the capital requirements, I have no problem with extending loans.
> But the airlines aren't, which is why nobody will lend them money. The airlines have an solvency problem, not a liquidity problem.


You're twisting the truth to try and protect the image of the banks. The big banks effectively got interest free loans, or at ridiculously low rates. And just because it was through central banks doesn't mean they are not on the backs of the public. The big banks very much got FREE money off the backs of the public.

The big banks *did not* meet capital requirements at the time they got liquidity support. They played tricks with risk-weighted capital (allowed under the looser, older capital rules) and failing to mark assets to market, to make themselves appear sufficiently capitalized.

The big banks had a solvency problem. No bank on earth can be 30:1 leveraged while their loan books and securities crash, and pretend to still be solvent. The big banks were insolvent, they got assistance from the public using free loans and liquidity.

If we believe that is fair, as I believe @MrMatt @Eder and others have argued repeatedly...

Then it's now time to grant the same generosity to the airlines. They will get taxpayer-backed loans & liquidity [as the banks did], even though their solvency is shaky [as the banks were].


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> You're twisting the truth to try and protect the image of the banks. The big banks effectively got interest free loans, or at ridiculously low rates. And just because it was through central banks doesn't mean they are not on the backs of the public. The big banks very much got FREE money off the backs of the public.
> 
> The big banks *did not* meet capital requirements at the time they got liquidity support. They played tricks with risk-weighted capital (allowed under the looser, older capital rules) and failing to mark assets to market, to make themselves appear sufficiently capitalized.
> 
> The big banks had a solvency problem. No bank on earth can be 30:1 leveraged while their loan books and securities crash, and pretend to still be solvent. The big banks were insolvent, they got assistance from the public using free loans and liquidity.
> 
> If we believe that is fair, as I believe @MrMatt @Eder and others have argued repeatedly...
> 
> Then it's now time to grant the same generosity to the airlines. They will get taxpayer-backed loans & liquidity [as the banks did], even though their solvency is shaky [as the banks were].


Not twisting anything, I do not think complying with government policy (ie the policy rate) is a bailout.
You didn't answer if it's still a bailout when they raise the policy rate.

I'm not aware of them not meeting capital requirements, do you have a source or is it another "find it yourself" claims.
If they did not meet their capital requirements, I would expect that they should face the appropriate penalties/consequences.

I have been completely consistent, I think government bailouts and subsidies to private business are categorically unfair.


I do not support bank bailouts, and I don't support Air Canada bailouts.


----------



## gardner

I saw that the Transat deal was rejected by the European regulator.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-canada-transat-merger-1.5974439





> European regulators signalled to the companies the deal wouldn't be approved in its current form


----------



## Beaver101

Air Canada says senior executives to voluntarily return 2020 bonuses

^ A consequence of "knowing no shame".


----------



## Beaver101

Looks like the news ain't getting better for AC:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-canada-refunds-u-s-1.6066398


----------



## james4beach

AC is currently at $20 but I suspect it could get hit very hard if the US significantly tightens travel restrictions and entry requirements tomorrow (Dec 2). See my notes in a travel thread.


----------

