# Realistic Return on Investments



## buckola (Dec 16, 2015)

Hi,
With all the turmoil in the stock markets so far this year. What is a realistic rate of return...if any, for 2016?

Buck


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I hope for 3-4% real return every year. We'll see!


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## GreatLaker (Mar 23, 2014)

Ask again in 355 days. Trying to predict rates of return over short time frames is a futile exercise. Changing your investing tactics based on market predictions is a loser's game.

Winning the Loser's Game, 6th edition: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Personal I am shooting for 20% or more


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## lost in space (Aug 31, 2015)

for me capital gains are nice but I like dividends, so any dividends over 4% I'm happy


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I need to read that book.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

My Own Advisor said:


> I hope for 3-4% real return every year. We'll see!


Every year? I would be happy to earn 3-4% real on average.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

1980z28 said:


> Personal I am shooting for 20% or more


WTF are you smoking.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

GoldStone said:


> WTF are you smoking.



1980 might be correct. He might realize even better than 20%.

when has a commodity market *not* turned, in the past half-century, & shot past a 20% recovery gain in the first year or 2 or 3 out of its trough?

i imagine one might have to go all the way back to the depression of the 1930s. Or, if one were james4beach, one could wave around the chart of the japanese nikkei after 1982.

everyone can see what 1980 is buying. He's buying hard-core, ultra-depressed resource stocks. There isn't a glimmer of hope on the horizon, other than the fact that some advanced chart settings are showing them as screaming buys.

resource-wise, nearly everything depends on china. However, the US can also help to stave off commodity collapse because its war/industrial machine will, almost inevitably, continue to boom. This could prevent a global slowdown from turning into decade-long global depression.

1980 is buying the Yea story. Brave lad. Why don't we wait 2 years & then regroup to see how he's doing at that future point in time? he just might have the last laugh on us ...


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

My Own Advisor said:


> I need to read that book.


It's on hold for me now at my library, along with 3 other books. Just finished reading an old classic that I originally read around 37 or 38 years ago- The Richest Man in Babylon

As for a realistic return this year that's purely a guess. Not going to bother.


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

As I said in another post, I bought BMO in 2007/8 when it payed a dividend greater than 10%, then it went up about 300% in about a year and a half. They've increased their dividend since then, so I'm earning more than 15% on my original investment just with the dividend. 

I don't know why people would be happy with 5%. This recent fall is a great opportunity to pick up some quality stocks that have been hammered recently.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I would be VERY happy with 5% real return! That's not realistic though long-term.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Well I expect about a 500,000,000% return on this one.


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