# Market Forecasts



## ddkay

Thought it might be a good idea to have a thread like this. A lot of people have posted their trade ideas and guesses about general market direction, but they've been pretty erratic and scattered.

So, what do you guys think will happen in the markets tomorrow?

I'll start... I think we'll break 1100 again on the S&P in the next few days, VIX spike to 48+. I don't think what Bernanke says will have any significant positive effects tomorrow. I'm monitoring Hurricane Irene, it looks like she's developing into a Category 3 and on a direct path to NYC going into the weekend. NYC released a flood evacuation map and Wall Street is literally going under water (Zone C): http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

In other news, Japan's PM Kan just resigned.


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## KaeJS

I'm going to say **** stays neutral and gold flies back up.


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## Argonaut

I don't think gold has priced in QE3 after the recent drop. I like its upside via fear or inflation, and we're bound to have at least one of them. On the other hand, I don't think the market has priced in non-QE3 yet.

Tomorrow is going to be a wild day. I think the market gets slammed as hard as it did last Thursday. The wildcard is gold. Will it go up with fear, or down with a flight to cash? It's probably good that a big drop happened and shook off the lightweights and latecomers.

Disclosure: I have a GLD call and an SPY put. I think the likelihood of neither of these bets working out is slim. I think the likelihood of one of these bets working out is very high. Both of them working out would be great, but less likely than one or the other.


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## ddkay

Yeah gold will be interesting to watch, there's a massive HnS forming on the daily gold chart though, it could get slammed equally hard


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## gibor365

ddkay said:


> I don't think what Bernanke says will have any significant positive effects tomorrow.


It depends on what he says


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## ddkay

Lol yeah I didn't mean to be ambiguous... I don't think it matters, the markets are setting up for disappointment so it's bad news either way. Inflation is still way too high to consider securities purchases type QE this early on, and skipping QE in any form will probably be interpreted as withdrawal of support.


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## Argonaut

ddkay said:


> Yeah gold will be interesting to watch, there's a massive HnS forming on the daily gold chart though, it could get slammed equally hard


I see that as well, quite ominous. But gold has smashed through all head and shoulders before. Fundamentals and news will drive it more than chart patterns anyways.

I don't think it likes to sit in the 1700s. We may see a test of 1650 support or 1900 resistance. If gold continues its bull run, in the past year usually the second time it goes for a psychological barrier it manages to break through.


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## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Lol yeah I didn't mean to be ambiguous... I don't think it matters, the markets are setting up for disappointment so it's bad news either way. Inflation is still way too high to consider securities purchases type QE this early on, and skipping QE in any form will probably be interpreted as withdrawal of support.


Maybe you are right, even though I pray you are wrong. 

Yes, higher probability for markets to go down , than to go up. On other hand in Jan/Feb the situation was opposite and marker crushed later.

Gold and miners can go either way, imho 60% they go up , 40% - down.

I just hope that Real return bonds, canadian bonds and short term bonds won't get hit hard as I keep them on RESP portfolio that I'll need in range 2-5 years


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## gibor365

I read somewhere that in whole US history only 1 time , annual stock market return was negative in 3rd year of the President cycle. Obama should do everything you can in order to lift stock if he want to have a chance to be re-elected.


P.S. sorry, what is it HnS ?


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## gibor365

Interesting that 1st time for many days VIX calls less than puts
189,817 vs 271,796  I expected opposite...


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## Causalien

I've finally finished doing my analysis before Jackson Hole. Just out of curiosity, did any of you spent some time planning for tomorrow and onward? If so, how long did it took you? I was lit up for the whole week working late.

Here's some connect-the-dot that I find is interesting.

Obama called Warren
Warren has an aha moment
Warren buys BAC
Jackson hole tomorrow.


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## ddkay

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110826a.htm

No further stimulus, but re-iterates the policy tools are in place if it needs to be used again


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## Argonaut

Market rallies on can-kicking? Can't figure this one out, I'm going back to sleep.


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## gibor365

ddkay said:


> http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110826a.htm
> 
> No further stimulus, but re-iterates the policy tools are in place if it needs to be used again


Probably it's better than just throw money into QE3.


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## Causalien

He did say the fed will discuss what tools to use in September.

So no specific on how to stimulate, but a hidden promise that some form of QE3 is in the works and will be announced in September.


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## gibor365

Causalien said:


> He did say the fed will discuss what tools to use in September.
> 
> So no specific on how to stimulate, but a hidden promise that some form of QE3 is in the works and will be announced in September.


Yeap, I understand it... and until they are working on it imho market will fluctuate back and forth (if we don't have some really bad economical news). In Sep it will depend on what kind of "some form of QE3 ", maybe some form of QE3 in mix with other stimulus.... now we can only speculate....
But for sure if Fed won't find some good program and US will slip to ressession, they will spend much nore money to get out of ressession.


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## Causalien

I think this is actually better than announcing something definite. It's not a No and it's not a Yes, but you can't trade it. Shorting it too hard will mean it becomes a reality.


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## ddkay

I think we topped out, gold going flat by EOD, more steep declines in S&P and gold begin next week


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## Argonaut

Argonaut said:


> Disclosure: I have a GLD call and an SPY put. I think the likelihood of neither of these bets working out is slim. I think the likelihood of one of these bets working out is very high. Both of them working out would be great, but less likely than one or the other.


Bet worked out as gold went on a rampage and outperformed the market. I didn't think it wanted to be in the 1700s. I'll need a $4 move up in GLD from here to sell my option at the desired profit.


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## ddkay

Hahaha, oh man I needed this to lighten up my day. So tired of bad news. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N16G0Bx2auA


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## Belguy

After one entire year, the TSX is basically back where it started from. On September 1, 2010, the TSX was sitting just above the 12,000 mark. Then, from that point until the end of February 2011, it rose more or less continuously to just above 14,000. Then, from March 1, 2011 until now, it dropped more or less continuously, albeit with more volatility, until Friday's close of 12,327.51. YTD, the net result is that the TSX is down 8.30% while the S&P 500 Index has lost 6.43%.

In the past few years, losses in equities have been partially offset, in a balanced portfolio, by gains in bonds but this is not as true today and likely going forward for some time if and when interest rates start to rise.

Also, nobody is predicting a booming economy anytime soon. At best, there might be anemic growth and, at worst, another recession. This will likely result in low returns for equities.

And so, this leads me to ask this question: GIC's anyone?

Also, the Wealthy Barber Returns:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/42235


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## dubmac

In my investment account I am 40% 4yr laddered GIC and 10% cash. Rates are very low, but after 4 years, I'm hoping to gain at least 1-1.5 % above inflation on this part of the portfolio. Inflation is the wild card in choosing GIC's.


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## larry81

Belguy said:


> This will likely result in low returns for equities.


Remember 'Death of equities' ? Decades apart, economic predictions strikingly similar...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-of-equities-part-2-2010-08-28

If you are losing sleep while riding the roller coaster, GIC might be an alernative but remember that... *in the end, optimists will triumph !* IMHO, this is not about predicting the future but about personal risk tolerance.


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## ChrisR

Belguy said:


> After one entire year, the TSX is basically back where it started from. On September 1, 2010, the TSX was sitting just above the 12,000 mark. Then, from that point until the end of February 2011, it rose more or less continuously to just above 14,000. Then, from March 1, 2011 until now, it dropped more or less continuously, albeit with more volatility, until Friday's close of 12,327.51. YTD, the net result is that the TSX is down 8.30% while the S&P 500 Index has lost 6.43%.


What is the relevance of looking at YTD returns?

If you look at 1 year returns (Aug 27, 2010 - Aug 27, 2011) then XIC has returned 6.26% (3.7% gain + 2.56% div).


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## dubmac

larry81 said:


> Remember 'Death of equities' ? Decades apart, economic predictions strikingly similar...
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-of-equities-part-2-2010-08-28
> 
> If you are losing sleep while riding the roller coaster, GIC might be an alernative but remember that... *in the end, optimists will triumph !* IMHO, this is not about predicting the future but about personal risk tolerance.


Yes...I agree larry81 - it is about risk tolerance - I enjoyed that article from marketwatch. My approach, (tho I loathe to use the word *timing*) is to buy low from a cash reserve each year. The last real opportunity was in 2009, and summer 2010. I expect that optimism will prevail, but did you buy much in Feb-March 2011 when optimism was "peaking"? - I would rather keep more in cash (or GIC's) and try to buy when prices are low - if that means keeping a sizeable amount out of the market and gradually buy when prices are better (and my sense is that prices are getting better) then so be it - I'll forgo some of potnetial gains/losses. 

It is about sleeping well at night.


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## ddkay

The US Congressional Budget Office's own estimate is that the U.S. won't fully recover until 2017 and that's using optimistic data. Death of equities is an exaggeration. Being permanently bearish is like betting on the end of mankind. The only time to do that is when there's mass physical disaster (nuclear war, sun burns out, asteroid hits us etc). IMO this is just the beginning of multi-year decline. My gut feeling is that something big (bad) is going to happen this week, I just can't put my finger on it yet.


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## larry81

ddkay said:


> My gut feeling is that something big (bad) is going to happen this week, I just can't put my finger on it yet.


You should short the market !

Remember last week

prediction spinned by the media = big drop (~5%) last friday if the fed dont announce QE3... 

reality = +2% last friday, week ending 26-Aug-11 The S&P 500 rallied 4.7%


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## Belguy

I think that the something bad that is about to happen is that New York City gets wiped out by a hurricane. We will all wake up on Monday morning to the news that the NYSE is under water--quite literally this time!!

CNN and the rest of the media have been ringing the alarm bells that life as we have known it is about to be wiped out by Irene!!

By the way, for whatever it is worth, I have sold nothing in the past 12 months except for rebalancing purposes and remain fully invested as always. Market timing is much too difficult a job for me to pursue. My annualized return over the past several years has been 7 per cent but I do not expect this to be sustained in the slow growth years ahead but, heh, you never know.


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## ddkay

I'll let you know when I do... it won't be until we see conviction selling again


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## ddkay

Looks like the hurricane besides some inland flooding and a few downed trees was mostly a non-event


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## gibor365

What is your annual forecasts ?
For example, what do you think about TSX and US indexes for 2011?

1. up more than 5%
2. up between 1 and 5%
3. mostly flat (+/- 1%)
4. down between 1 and 5%
5. down between 5 and 10%
6. down more than 10%


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## Belguy

Geez, the ongoing mess in Europe makes predicting market futures basically a game of darts.

As I have said many times, the European Debt problem is something that even God him or her self could not resolve and it is going to go on for many years.

What then does that mean for the growth of the markets for the next ten or twenty years let alone for the balance of this year?

Since I believe that we are in for a decade or two of anemic growth, I'll pick option 2--up between 1 and 5 per cent and likely around 2 per cent not only this year but for many years to come. That said, we still have quite a hole to crawl out of if we are going to finish this year in positive territory.


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## KaeJS

4. down between 1 and 5%


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## ddkay

Emotions/data is changing every day, I don't have a reliable way to forecast what could happen 5 months from now. Take today for example, consumer confidence at a 28 month low. That should have caused a sharp selloff right? We didn't even stay in triple digit territory, the market shrugged it off and we were positive again by noon. This makes the next move down even more scary than I thought. Not going to bother guessing the cause of the next selloff, but I'm setting my new top target between SP500 1230-1240.


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## gibor365

This market more and more reminds me Las Vegas 
imho prediction for 1-2 days is more difficult than until year end. 
Now checked VTI +0.27% for the day, but after hours at 4.14pm already -0.51%.  What the hell happened?! Checked news , may be some disaster  no, nothing


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## gibor365

_Tuesday, August 30, 5:10 PM JPMorgan's Michael Feroli's read of the FOMC minutes leads him to believe there is a better-than-even chance at further easing on Sept. 21. The doves - who favored a "more substantial move" at the Aug. 9 meet - sat on their hands for a month, but will likely not be denied next go-around._


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## KaeJS

Woohoo for QE3!!


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## HaroldCrump

gibor said:


> _Tuesday, August 30, 5:10 PM JPMorgan's Michael Feroli's read of the FOMC minutes leads him to believe there is a better-than-even chance at further easing on Sept. 21._


Isn't the promise to keep interest rates at 0 for the next 3 years already a QE3 of sorts.
QE3 is already underway...it's simply not being called that.


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## Jungle

gibor said:


> _Tuesday, August 30, 5:10 PM JPMorgan's Michael Feroli's read of the FOMC minutes leads him to believe there is a better-than-even chance at further easing on Sept. 21. The doves - who favored a "more substantial move" at the Aug. 9 meet - sat on their hands for a month, but will likely not be denied next go-around._


Is this why the markets have been going green in the last two days? 

I want them to drop now, to add to positions!


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## KaeJS

I want them to drop, too.

I want the banks to get hit *hard*.


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## Jungle

KaeJS said:


> I want them to drop, too.
> 
> I want the banks to get hit *hard*.


Check out RY, might be a good value right now since they keep missing estimates..


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## KaeJS

Jungle,

I just want the banks did get hit hard so I can pick up my BMO shares dirt cheap.


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## bigpun87

Jungle said:


> Check out RY, might be a good value right now since they keep missing estimates..


I added some RY yesterday after they dropped 3% due to missed estimates


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## Dmoney

KaeJS said:


> Jungle,
> 
> I just want the banks did get hit hard so I can pick up my BMO shares dirt cheap.


I just want them to keep running up until my stupid brokerage accounts get sorted out. If I'm forced to sell calls below the $.70 I could have sold them at today I will go all sorts of crazy on everyone.


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## gibor365

Jungle said:


> Is this why the markets have been going green in the last two days?
> 
> I want them to drop now, to add to positions!


maybe one of the reasons....and it's green more than 2 days...

I also was expecting some drop and wanted to buy some nice dividend players....
Now it's a wierd situation, next 3 days expected 3 important job related numbers from US. The worst numbers, the more stimulus expected. 
So markets can react positively on the bad numbers...


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## Homerhomer

gibor said:


> maybe one of the reasons....and it's green more than 2 days...
> 
> I also was expecting some drop and wanted to buy some nice dividend players....
> Now it's a wierd situation, next 3 days expected 3 important job related numbers from US. The worst numbers, the more stimulus expected.
> So markets can react positively on the bad numbers...


What pisses me off that as of late many important reports are being revised (down for most part), so now one shouldn't anticipate the report but the revision that will be available with the next report.

Last payroll report was revised today with the release of the current report (not the first time), Canada's GDP came way below expectations and quite possibly the contraction will be revised next month ;-)


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## Homerhomer

gibor said:


> maybe one of the reasons....and it's green more than 2 days...
> 
> I also was expecting some drop and wanted to buy some nice dividend players....
> Now it's a wierd situation, next 3 days expected 3 important job related numbers from US. The worst numbers, the more stimulus expected.
> So markets can react positively on the bad numbers...


What pisses me off that as of late many important reports are being revised (down for most part), so now one shouldn't anticipate the report but the revision that will be available with the next report.

Last payroll report was revised today with the release of the current report (not the first time), Canada's GDP came way below expectations and quite possibly the contraction will be revised next month ;-)


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## ddkay

Canadian GDP -0.4% and the TSX is up a hundred points, someone explain that one to me lol.


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## kcowan

ddkay said:


> Canadian GDP -0.4% and the TSX is up a hundred points, someone explain that one to me lol.


Irrational exuberance?


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## Lephturn

ddkay said:


> Canadian GDP -0.4% and the TSX is up a hundred points, someone explain that one to me lol.


I think you'll find that the TSX correlates better with the price of oil and gold than it does the Canadian economy as a whole.


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## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Canadian GDP -0.4% and the TSX is up a hundred points, someone explain that one to me lol.


I heard on 680 news GDP is -0.1%.

imho it's going up because CIBC beats expectation and more important because US markets are up... and I as mentioned yesterday, the worse number, the more chances for larger stimulus program. Everyone understand that for Feds better to spend money now for stimulus, than to spend much more money to get out of recession


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## el oro

As I said in one of the oil threads some time ago, congrats to the dip buyers. Unfortunately, however, the markets have reached the bottom end of a cluster of resistance. The upper end being just 3-4% above current levels, looking at S&P and the TSX. The rally from the bottom has been weak, the panic has disappeared. If this is a bear market rally, this may be the end of the road. So, I'm selling some of my recent dip purchases and will hold cash. If we reach closer to the upper end of the resistance, I'll attempt a short and if we can rise above, I'll go long again. 

Essentially, I will forego the next 3-5% of upside to avoid the possibility of the bear market resuming. And as we've seen recently, 3-5% is just one day of losses when the market wants to plunge. For the sake of buy and hold investors, I hope I'm doing this all for nothing. Just waiting for a people to buy my last few stocks now and I'll be cashed up along with gold and a penny stock I'll hold on to.


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## Argonaut

Agree that this move in the last week has been suspect. Low volume, and too high percentage wise. I don't think this is 2008 again, but I don't think it is 2010 either. I was guns blazing buying the August dip last year. This year, the news is worse and the possibility of QE smaller.


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## Homerhomer

I also have a feeling that some of the May And Go Away Sellers may be coming back to market, hence small volume and large increase.

I sold in May but am staying away.


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## Belguy

To all of you market timers out there, all I can say is that I wish you the best of luck in all of your endeavours!!


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## ddkay

This might be the correction I was waiting for, or not.. it's not going fast enough.. SP500 lost 17 points from 1231


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## Argonaut

In negative territory now. If it closes lower that marks a key reversal for the technicians out there. Thursday and Friday could be down days. The first of the month is often a harbinger for the rest of the month.


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## webber22

The end of month window dressing should keep prices up today. But look out for the rest of the week !!


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## ddkay

I'm not convinced this rally is over yet. Monster employment index, jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing index are being released tomorrow and will beat expectations or something dumb like that.


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## Belguy

Nobody really knows!!!


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## Jon_Snow

Could it be that I actually timed the bottom when I bought into the market 3 weeks ago? I still have a good chunk of cash available if the wheels fall off... but I feel good about getting a foothold established in early August when things were lookin' ugly. Could we move higher from here for the rest of 2012?

Someone on this board nailed it when they said the stock market is a mug's game. If we were in a normal interest rate environment I would have no problem trying to get ahead with GIC's.


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## Abha

September could get really ugly really fast, so don't hold your breath that we'll continue moving higher.

We are pretty overextended at this point so I do expect a pullback of some kind, most likely starting with the jobs report on Friday.


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## gibor365

Abha said:


> September could get really ugly really fast, so don't hold your breath that we'll continue moving higher.
> 
> We are pretty overextended at this point so I do expect a pullback of some kind, most likely starting with the jobs report on Friday.


Buying FAZ on Fri?


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## Abha

gibor said:


> Buying FAZ on Fri?


I got burned on FAS a few weeks ago so I'm a little gun shy about the 3x inverse ETF's at the moment. I'll probably start playing with them again in a few weeks.

I might short a few companies instead.


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## ddkay

On this day in 1939, WWII began as Germany invaded Poland...


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## ddkay

ddkay said:


> I'm not convinced this rally is over yet. Monster employment index, jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing index are being released tomorrow and will beat expectations or something dumb like that.


Jobless claims beat: 407k consensus, 409k actual
ISM beat: 48.5 consensus, 50.6 actual

Monster employment index got moved to Friday with the BLS Employment Situation at 8:30

So here are my ranges. If SP500 goes below 1208 the uptrend is broken, if we stay above 1208 the uptrend continues until it tests 1230 again for a triple top or 1240 the 50% fibonacci line and then we get a crash or something.

Next week German coalition parliament leaders vote whether or not to accept a cabinet draft to allow parliament more participation in bailouts, and the EFSF expansion vote is at the end of this month on September 29.


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## larry81

my crystal ball told me that blablabla experts opinions, blablabla technical charts, blablabla Elliott wave pattern blablabla


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## Lephturn

Interesting opportunity... it's rare that there is so much premium left before a long weekend. Everything is waiting on non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Lots of weekend risk in this market, but normally the time value would get sold out of the options by about Wednesday afternoon, but it seems to mostly still be priced in. Could possibly sell right after non-farm payrolls comes out and collect some nice premium over the weekend. Or take the risk and sell premium ahead of non-farms and buy it back late Friday afternoon - avoid the weekend risk and collect on that vol collapse in the afternoon.


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## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> Jobless claims beat: 407k consensus, 409k actual


When this is revised next time it will probably be a miss, just like last one was revised up by 4K. ;-)

The revisions are becaming a standart procedure these days, maybe they should wait few days with releases and get the numbers right ;-)


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## sensfan15

This thread is full of speculative nonsense for long term investors. The bottomline is that not one person knows what is going to happen. I don't care what the greenberg 80/10 rule says about the triple deathline about to break the support level.


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## Argonaut

I can't remember what thread it was in, but I had told Abha that TD would pass Royal in market cap. It's actually happened sooner rather than later, as TD was briefly the biggest company in Canada today! The stock should firmly establish itself as market cap leader on the TSX in the near future.

I'm holding onto some options that I've had for far too long going into tomorrow. If the jobs report disappoints, time to cash out a winner.


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## ddkay

Hasn't RBC disappointed earnings expectations like 7 times in a row?


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## ddkay

Here's my take on the McClellan oscillator and the SP500 using the last 2 years of history


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## ddkay

Another with my oil price and dollar inflation hypothesis for further QE










If Ben starts QE3 while the dollar is super weak I'm selling all my USD and would not consider USD denominated holdings, that would be a catastrophe for their currency. The only way for the dollar to strengthen again is with another crash and massive wealth destruction (shortage of dollars = higher value).


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## larry81

Do any of you fortune teller's keep track of his/her prediction in a spreadsheet or similar


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## gibor365

_Chairman Bernanke said the central bank stands ready to act if needed, which means that they are considering additional Quantitative Easing. If non-farm payrolls beat expectations, it would reduce the need for more QE but if the labor market report disappoints, it could force the Federal Reserve into action._
http://www.greenfaucet.com/?q=node/18574

Interesting what will be market reaction, if report dissapoints, more chances QE3 will be implemented and .... stock will go up (and vise versa) ? 

ddkay, on your diagram "non farm payroll misses by 111K" ...where is this number coming from?


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## ddkay

@gibor the expectations figure comes from the Econoday survey http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446889&cust=mam&year=2011#top

The June 2011 NFP survey forecast 105k new jobs with an estimate range between 65k and 160k. Actual NFP (revised down) came in at 18k, so the miss was 87k. I can't remember which source I used for 111k but it must have been wrong. Thanks.

Edit: Oh here it is. In May 2011 NFP consensus was 170k, actual was 54k, resulting in a 116k miss (still a bit off from the number I used though) http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446888&cust=mam#top


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## gibor365

ddkay said:


> @gibor the expectations figure comes from the Econoday survey http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446889&cust=mam&year=2011#top


ddkay, what is your opinion on article (link in post above)?


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## ddkay

@gibor Not sure, I'm not very good at interpreting those indicators to be honest. I think the payrolls will head lower month over month but we'll get another "surprise" because economists dramatically adjusted their estimates lower to an average of 75,000. Goldman Sachs for example lowered NFP estimate to 25,000. A 25,000 print = double dip is here. It could be too soon to call that.

Fresh off the press: U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages

SP500 futes are down -0.61% since that was published 2 hours ago, nothing to sweat about yet.


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## gibor365

ddkay said:


> @gibor Not sure, I'm not very good at interpreting those indicators to be honest. .


I'm not very good in understanding what is going on . Was watchinh BNN tonight, first appeared 2 analyst who predicted very tough September. Than appeared Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research, and said:

"The market is undergoing a counter-trend rally that could recover much of what was lost over the past few months. This advance could last the entire month of September and thus run contrary to the S&P 500’s typical performance, in which it posted average declines since 1945 and recorded falling prices in 55% of all observations."

Whom to beleive


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## ddkay

2008 vs 2010 vs 2011


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## Argonaut

Economy added no jobs in August, a huge miss on expectations. I had to play this one because I figured with all the market turmoil last month the tail would have to wag the dog in the labour market. GLD call and SPY put, can't cash out fast enough. Like Steve Miller said.. take the money and run.


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## Homerhomer

Argonaut said:


> Economy added no jobs in August, a huge miss on expectations.  .


It will be a loss of jobs when they revise it next month


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## ddkay

That NFP number was embarrassing. At the same time the market reaction is extremely mild (down just 2%?!). I officially got a sell signal on SP500 Full STOs, we broke the 1208 level uptrend from yesterday and should continue moving lower from here, it could take another week or two to get oversold again. Luckily the SP500 didn't hit 1240 and so the crash is postponed... Congress has to vote to lift the debt ceiling again on September 30, 2011. The day before is the EFSF expansion vote. Waiting game...


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## Argonaut

Probably not down as much because the possibility of stimulus is higher. I wish the Feds and the politicians would just let this thing play itself out. QE3 would be a bad idea, and we will start seeing some unwarranted inflation. Can't see myself playing much in the market this month, but I'll do something to protect my gains if need be.


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## ddkay

lol


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## Belguy

A small, and decreasing percentage of Americans think that Obama is doing a good job with the economy. Man, would I like to speak to any of those folks to ask them how they have come to that conclusion. He is terrible!!!

I wonder how things might have been different with Hillary or even McCain in charge but alas it didn't turn out that way.

I fear that we may be in for at least three to five years of this!! Oh well, it's only money.


----------



## Lephturn

Belguy said:


> A small, and decreasing percentage of Americans think that Obama is doing a good job with the economy. Man, would I like to speak to any of those folks to ask them how they have come to that conclusion. He is terrible!!!
> 
> I wonder how things might have been different with Hillary or even McCain in charge but alas it didn't turn out that way.
> 
> I fear that we may be in for at least three to five years of this!! Oh well, it's only money.


I'd like to know just what you think could have been done differently. More of the Bush era policies that got them in this mess? Do you think they should not have done the bail outs? 

Obama is screwed either way - do what people want and cut Federal spending - which means cutting jobs - and get reamed for job losses. Or don't and get reamed for stagnant job growth. The growth and jobs numbers get compared to the loose money/credit expansionist last 20 years which are unsustainable, not to what the result could have been if they tightened instead.

I think you - along with most people - over-estimate what a President can do. The real answer is he can go to war, but that's about it. Otherwise he needs congress and the senate to put legislation on his desk, and that process is clearly a disaster no matter who holds the executive title.

I'm just glad I live in a country with a much better functioning political system!


----------



## fatcat

> A small, and decreasing percentage of Americans think that Obama is doing a good job with the economy. Man, would I like to speak to any of those folks to ask them how they have come to that conclusion. He is terrible!!!


no way in hell this can be laid at obamas feet ..

i wish he had taken some different moves, like a much bigger stimulus, but he inherited a *7 million job loss* because george bush was asleep at the wheel

obama doesn't own this thing until at least the end of his term and then there is another referendum and the voters can decide whether to keep him or not


----------



## Belguy

If you were an American, and an election was held tomorrow with the two choices were Romney for the Republicans and Obama for the Democrats, and your biggest concerns were jobs and the economy, how would you vote? 

If you happen to be one of those who always vote for the same party, even if Lassie the Dog was the candidate, I'm not so much interested in your response but only if you consider yourself an Independent who switches allegiances depending on which candidate you consider superior.


----------



## fatcat

i lived in the usa for almost 5 decades and i am a dual citizen ... jobs and the economy are only part of my concern as a voter

i would, once again, vote for obama ...

on only the economy, they have one and only one plan, it's the same plan they have had for 3 decades ... cut taxes, cut taxes ... but merely cutting taxes isn't enough

taxes were cut under george w. bush and the economy lost 7 million jobs

so, i don't see the republicans as trustworthy or any more competent to bring the economy back than obama

and then there are all the other disastrous policies of the republicans


----------



## Belguy

Well, none of the Republican candidates are exactly basking in glory, Obama's job approval ratings are pretty dismal these days as well.

Just as we should have a 'none of the above' choice on the ballot in Canada, perhaps they should also have it in the Exited States.


----------



## cannew

Things will continue to get worse because the major problems are not being resolved. 

The us can't get the unployment rate down and stimulus won't result in any sustainable recovery. 

The us must also address its debt in a manner which will truly bring it down. I think a combination of tax increases and expenditures is needed.

Europe is a real big problem which will drag all markets down.

I hope the real drop doesn't occur till early 2012 as I will have a fairly large sum to invest.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Cannew, amen to the last part of your post. I have a 100k GIC maturing in Feb 2012 and would love for conditions to be ripe for me to invest a decent chunk of it. (It was originally slated to kill our mortgage).


----------



## Abha

Jon_Snow said:


> Cannew, amen to the last part of your post. I have a 100k GIC maturing in Feb 2012 and would love for conditions to be ripe for me to invest a decent chunk of it. (It was originally slated to kill our mortgage).


Might want to use that for your mortgage instead.

It's always better to pay off debt instead of investing. Unless you've locked in a super low interest rate and don't mind making the payments.


----------



## sags

GM sells a lot of Buicks in China.

GM had to build a plant in China to sell Buicks in China.

China sells a lot of products in the USA.

China builds a lot of plants in China to sell products in the USA.

China's GDP has "slowed" to 10%.

The USA is heading into negative GDP.

It doesn't take a financial expert to figure out this is a problem.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> *GM had to build a plant in China to sell Buicks in China.*
> 
> vs.
> 
> _China builds a lot of plants in China to sell products in the USA._


This right here is the issue.
Too many offshore/outsourcing business going on. The Americans don't have jobs.

But from a business perspective. Why pay more $$$ to people who don't work as well, when you could pay less $$$ to a nation with a better work ethic?


----------



## Belguy

Some recent results for new ETF's that may be of interest to some:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...tfs/article2152415/singlepage/#articlecontent

Also from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...r-takes-it-easy-in-retirement/article2152366/

And, looking at some bond funds:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ond-market-mutual-fund-or-etf/article2150933/

I hold the PH&N Bond Fund D as my core fixed income investment.


----------



## ddkay

The US dollar is breaking out and looks like it might be at the start of a face ripper rally, could see the DXY over 90 in a few months










Canadian Dollar Index broke its uptrend in late July or May depending which time period you look at, but it's still relatively strong (compare USD and CAD November 2009 onward)


----------



## Homerhomer

DAX and CAC down around 5% today with the rest of the markets not too far behind, it may be an interesting day for north american market tomorrow.


----------



## gibor365

Homerhomer said:


> DAX and CAC down around 5% today with the rest of the markets not too far behind, it may be an interesting day for north american market tomorrow.


Nothing interesting...just another crash


----------



## KaeJS

Time to short, folks.


----------



## Argonaut

10 year treasury under 2%, gold over $1900. We would be lucky with a crash.. get it over with and pick up some bargains. A volatile, grinding bear market is worse. It's like ripping off a band-aid slow instead of quick.

I think there is a window of opportunity here. On Thursday after the jobless claims, and before Bernanke speaks might be a time to buy some calls. Obama has his jobs speech later that day, but I don't think anything he's ever said has moved the market up. Wish it was still on Wednesday.

I'm just glad I have 20% cash, half of that in USD. 30% gold too.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Time to short, folks.


It's can be too late... market will be sharply down at 9.30 ...

On other hand maybe it's time to buy solid blue-chip stocks like MCD, KO, KMB?


----------



## Belguy

I'm getting just a little tired of all of this volatility since 2008!!

Are the equity markets any place for a retired senior to have his or her money?

One reason that they keep on giving for all of the volatility is the European Debt Crisis and Angela Merkel's party just lost another local election on this issue because German taxpayers are getting tired of shipping money to other EU nations that didn't know how not to live beyond their means.

The U.S. unemployment problem and political stalemate is another problem.

Neither of these problems are going away anytime soon and may take years to resolve.

How then, are the equity markets going to reverse trends with both of these headwinds as well as others?

It's a difficult time to be an optimist unless you are young and have a long time horizon.

For we older geezers, we may just be faced with a lower standard of living in our golden years filled with so much market volatility.

Can anyone give me any reason for optimism?


----------



## ddkay

The markets are just realigning, recessions and depressions are necessary to eliminate weak and inefficient countries and firms


----------



## HaroldCrump

ddkay said:


> The markets are just realigning, recessions and depressions are necessary to eliminate weak and inefficient countries and firms


But it's not, that's the problem.
The governments around the world are not letting the diseased banks and countries re-structure.
They are keeping everything on life support.
It appears Creative Destruction is being stifled.


----------



## Argonaut

There's always ways to make money in capital markets. If one is averse to making movements, the best buy and hold strategy is with a diversified basket of equal weight low beta dividend stocks. If one asks, "is there an ETF for that?", then the point has been lost.


----------



## ddkay




----------



## Lephturn

Belguy said:


> For we older geezers, we may just be faced with a lower standard of living in our golden years filled with so much market volatility.
> 
> Can anyone give me any reason for optimism?


Yeah, lots of volatility! Even for a buy-and-hope guy, the volatility is a good thing for you provided you are re balancing and reinvesting dividends. Given that you are doing "buy hold and prosper" it shouldn't matter how volatile it is right?


----------



## Mockingbird

Spoos closed down 2% on a shortened trading day. Pretty controlled slide.

MB


----------



## ddkay

So if the German courts don't approve the EFSF expansion does that mean the IMF will intervene?


----------



## ddkay

China is releasing all their economic data at once on Friday


----------



## fatcat

from forbes.com: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/09/05/an-ugly-tuesday-likely-on-wall-street/

*An Ugly Tuesday Likely On Wall Street*

While America was ending its summer with the Labor Day holiday, European stocks dragged global equities down along with them all day Monday as the banking sector keeps looking weaker by the day. U.S. investors will be ending their summer on a sour note Tuesday morning. Unless they left their short positions still open on Friday.

“I think the Dow opens 200 points lower on Tuesday,” says Vlad Signorelli, director of global research at Bretton Woods Research LLC in New Jersey. “Maybe even more. Between the European banking sector and the politics at the core all saying austerity is the solution, there is no growth on the horizon in Europe and the market just keeps pushing their growth projections lower.”


----------



## Jon_Snow

I guess I didn't succeed in timing the market bottom in early August... But at least I still have considerable cash on hand if things get "March 2009" ugly... Something in my gut says we may get close to testing those levels.


----------



## larry81

Jon_Snow said:


> I guess I didn't succeed in timing the market bottom in early August... But at least I still have considerable cash on hand if things get "March 2009" ugly... Something in my gut says we may get close to testing those levels.


Lets pray for a financial Armageddon so we can deploy our cash


----------



## ddkay

I would start to worry a lot if the SP500 went below 787pts, that would break a 75 year price channel. March 2009 lows is definitely the worst case scenario at this point, I'm praying that doesn't happen, but a correction at least to 1012 or 879pts is realistic.


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> I would start to worry a lot if the SP500 went below 787pts, that would break a 75 year price channel. March 2009 lows is definitely the worst case scenario at this point, I'm praying that doesn't happen, but a correction at least to 1012 or 879pts is realistic.


Worst case scenario is Japan, in such case you can expect S&P at around 300 level in 2030.


----------



## el oro

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/08/SPX Nikkei.jpg

This is a graphical representation of the S&P, which is following a similar path to the Nikkei. If the S&P continues to follow the pattern of the Nikkei as shown in the link, we can expect to see the index to be halved in value over the next few years and stay below current levels for the next decade or so.


----------



## Belguy

Ah, a secular bear market!! What a wonderful time to be an retired, senior investor!! Hindsight is not a very good way to view what might have been had I been a GIC investor over the past few years instead of being in the markets.

Those with shorter timelines may not live long enough to recover their paper losses especially if some of the above dire predictions come true which I fear they might!!

All of that said, I have sold nothing and am riding this rollercoaster into oblivion.

If I end up in the soup line, there will be a heck of lot of investors there with me.

If this market rebounds in the next several months, I will eat crow but, somehow, I doubt it because the European debt crisis is unsolvable and will go on for years irregardless of what happens to the U.S. economy over the next several months.

God him or herself would not be able to resolve the mess in Europe--at least not for many, many years. If he knew what to do about it, surely he would have acted by now!!

Indeed, only those with a long timeline may live long enough to outlive this mess.


----------



## fatcat

_The Stoxx Europe 600 index slumped 4.1% to close at 223.45 on Monday, a day when U.S. markets were shuttererd for the Labor Day holiday._

and banks are going down bigtime, as they well should ....

nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see bank of america go into the crapper and get flushed into mongolia ....

we are going to get another hellacious day, like down 4% or more

gold will go up again


----------



## Abha

fatcat said:


> _The Stoxx Europe 600 index slumped 4.1% to close at 223.45 on Monday, a day when U.S. markets were shuttererd for the Labor Day holiday._
> 
> and banks are going down bigtime, as they well should ....
> 
> nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see bank of america go into the crapper and get flushed into mongolia ....
> 
> we are going to get another hellacious day, like down 4% or more
> 
> gold will go up again


You do realize if Bank of America goes into the crapper so does the vast majority of companies and indices that are directly and indirectly tied to it.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Homerhomer said:


> Worst case scenario is Japan, in such case you can expect S&P at around 300 level in 2030.


Actually, on balance, a Japan style situation 10 - 20 years from now is not the worst case scenario for the US.
I'd say, it is perhaps not a bad outcome for them at all.
Inspite of all the doom and gloom of the Nekkei since the early 1990s peak, Japan hasn't done too bad for itself.
No 15% of the population on food stamps
No large scale bankruptcies, foreclosures, etc.
Stable job market, stable education system, high life expectancy, high-tech consumer oriented society, etc.
Yes, 0 interest rates and 0 real GDP growth but it aint the worst thing in life.

Given the colossal mistakes and screw ups by the US in the last decade or two, a Japan style economic stability it not a bad thing, 20 years hence.


----------



## Homerhomer

HaroldCrump said:


> Actually, on balance, a Japan style situation 10 - 20 years from now is not the worst case scenario for the US.
> I'd say, it is perhaps not a bad outcome for them at all.
> Inspite of all the doom and gloom of the Nekkei since the early 1990s peak, Japan hasn't done too bad for itself.
> No 15% of the population on food stamps
> No large scale bankruptcies, foreclosures, etc.
> Stable job market, stable education system, high life expectancy, high-tech consumer oriented society, etc.
> Yes, 0 interest rates and 0 real GDP growth but it aint the worst thing in life.
> 
> Given the colossal mistakes and screw ups by the US in the last decade or two, a Japan style economic stability it not a bad thing, 20 years hence.


Correct, but for the stock market itself worse outcome is hard to imagine.


----------



## ddkay

I'm going to sleep and praying the SP500 stays above 1135 (-3.32% from Friday close), so far the futures overnight low was 1136.25


----------



## fatcat

> You do realize if Bank of America goes into the crapper so does the vast majority of companies and indices that are directly and indirectly tied to it.


don't give a damn, i am fed up .. look at taleb's latest column (http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/02/the-great-bank-robbery/) .. banks are screwing us (actually maybe not so much the people on this forum but they are screwing savers and people with little or no money via inflation) and i totally reject the argument that we have to submit to blackmail because of their "importance" to the economy

bank of america is a shi##y, incompetent bank and they deserve to go down


----------



## KaeJS

This is nuts.

People get all bent out of shape over a jobs report.

Companies are still profitable.

I thought owning stock was about owning part of a company, not about how many jobs are created or lost in America. 

Pfft, Macroeconomics.. who needs it!


----------



## ddkay

Some American investors I know have pulled all their money out of BofA (I mean cash deposits) so they can sleep at night.. I'm sure they aren't alone


----------



## Argonaut

I'm telling my best friend in the US to pull her money out of Bank of America. Any decent banks? Wells Fargo? I would say TD but it's only on the east coast.


----------



## humble_pie

gosh. What is this, the edge of hurricane Run-on-BAC that's blowing north into canada ?

in early 2009 bmo employees in toronto told how americans were driving to the bank, mostly to the head office. They'd open accounts with a few thousand $$ while telling staff how they intended to drive back home & wire their entire life savings to their new account that was safe in canada.


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> Companies are still profitable.
> 
> I thought owning stock was about owning part of a company, not about how many jobs are created or lost in America.
> 
> Pfft, Macroeconomics.. who needs it!


My Macro-economics prof. in university used to say on the first day of class:

Micro-economics is how economics is _supposed_ to work.
Macro-economics is how it _actually_ works


----------



## ddkay

It's hard to say which other banks would survive if BofA actually collapsed. I think there's a higher chance of the Fed purchasing it outright before that happens. I've also seen some people moving money to completely unleveraged banks like Pictet & Cie but they have a 1% custodian fee.


----------



## Abha

Yeah I dont get it either.

No way in hell anyone in the US Government would ever let BAC fail. 

I think Warren Buffet's deal is a little early but it's a pretty good bet that he is within 20% - 30% of the true bottom on BAC.

BAC is simply too big to fail. 

I will say I'm liking BAC as a great speculative buy more and more, given the intense exodus that is forming on the name.


----------



## Argonaut

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. How well is another bailout going to go over in Congress? There is no such thing as too big to fail. Roman Empire, British Empire, and now American Empire.


----------



## KaeJS

HaroldCrump said:


> My Macro-economics prof. in university used to say on the first day of class:
> 
> Micro-economics is how economics is _supposed_ to work.
> Macro-economics is how it _actually_ works


Seems like he is a smart man.


----------



## gibor365

I don't belive Feds will give BofA to fall. When Lehman got bankropt, whole world was on the brink of finacial disaster, with BAC it would be much worse..

_“We’ve got roads and bridges across this country that need rebuilding,” Obama said. “We’ve got more than 1 million unemployed construction workers ready to get dirty right now. There is work to be done and there are workers ready to do it. Labor’s on board, business is on board. We just need Congress to get on board.” 

_ Is it time to build another Hoover dam?!


----------



## Argonaut

I was looking into some BAC calls the other day actually. More upside than puts. But I sure as hell wouldn't want them holding my cash. Abha, if you have to play BAC, please don't do so with common stock.. you'll give me a sympathy heart attack.


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> I was looking into some BAC calls the other day actually. More upside than puts. But I sure as hell wouldn't want them holding my cash. Abha, if you have to play BAC, please don't do so with common stock.. you'll give me a sympathy heart attack.


Why not. That's the upside play.

I was doing this all summer with Bank of Greece and Bank of Ireland.

My play in US Financials is with Goldman Sachs and I'll load up on that if it gets to the low $100s.


----------



## Argonaut

Buy calls. Less risk, more leverage to the upside. When BAC hits $5, I like the Jan 2013 strike @ 10.00.


----------



## ddkay

Interesting story



> This decline is not seeing much in the way of dip buying and suggests that Terry Laundry's observation that money is leaving the market, never to return, is probably correct. He's seen this kind of behavior before — in 1973 — as the market keeled over and plunged 50% in the next few months. Money was not moving to the sidelines, it was exiting the market on a permanent basis, with a whole generation of investors completely throwing in the towel and giving up on the stock market. That's probably the most likely explanation for why the indicators are acting as they are: we see the market dropping sharply on declines, but not developing the typical accumulation pattern necessary for a good low. This is the kind of pattern one would expect to see if this current generation is abandoning ship and vowing never to come back. After all, they've seen absolutely no gain (after adjustment for inflation) from buy-and-hold for at least the last two decades. And, whatever paper profits they've made have been taxed away by an obese government.
> 
> 1974 was the absolute low in stocks. However, anyone who bought the absolute low had to wait eight more years before that absolute low was retested and the big uptrend began. That retest in 1982 was at a higher nominal level in the Dow, but when you adjust for inflation, it was at the same real level. The whole 16-year sideways move in stocks destroyed a massive amount of paper value in the stock market. By the time the ultimate low was reached, stocks were trading at depression levels, which means they were absolutely unbelievably cheap. At the time, we decided that a PE Ratio of 7 was "cheap," so we highlighted every stock in the listings which was trading at a PE Ratio below 7. By the time we had looked at the middle of the page, almost the entire first half of the page was bright yellow! In terms of book value, it was easy to find bargains: big, blue chip companies with good earnings were trading at around half of their book value. That's a situation which can persist for a while, but can't last forever, as private capital could come into the market and buy a business far cheaper than it could be created from scratch. Ultimately, stocks moved much, much higher and PE Ratios expanded significantly.


----------



## Argonaut

Swiss Bank has pegged the Franc to the Euro @ 1.20. Don't have a story to link to as this is breaking news.

This is like willingly jumping onto a sinking ship.


----------



## avrex

Argonaut said:


> Swiss Bank has pegged the Franc to the Euro @ 1.20.


I just lost 6.3% on Swiss francs in just a few hours overnight. damn. 

SNB steps in to weaken Swiss franc


----------



## humble_pie

this has been expected for weeks. In fact it's been years since CHF floated freely. For years now the swiss central bank has sought to keep chf more or less in line with usd. Switching to euro appears to be new. In their shoes there is probably not much choice.

the goal is to maintain the competitiveness of swiss exports & tourism.

whether helvetia will succeed is another story. CHF have a way of creeping up. May in time escape the new peg.


----------



## kcowan

Lephturn said:


> Given that you are doing "buy hold and prosper" it shouldn't matter how volatile it is right?


It depends on the rebalancing frequency. If it is often, then you are right. If it is every year, then it will only work out in a 10-year period.


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Ah, a secular bear market!! What a wonderful time to be an retired, senior investor!! Hindsight is not a very good way to view what might have been had I been a GIC investor over the past few years instead of being in the markets.
> 
> All of that said, I have sold nothing and am riding this rollercoaster into oblivion.
> 
> .


@Belguy
Just curious how frequest and when you rebalance?

imho for retired person probably better to invest into solid blue-chips with high dividend growth, this way you can create 4-4.5% yield diversified portfolio and have constant stream of dividends


----------



## ddkay

Down 94pts from last Thursday.. up 15 pts from this morning. FSO suggesting a continuation of that bounce. Could it have to do with the correction in Gold? In Europe CAC40 and DAX are down another 1%, FTSE100 is up 1%, meanwhile SP500 pared approx 1% of losses. What could explain that? Currency fluctuations? US Dollar Index moved higher to $75.969, the EUR/USD broke $1.40 for the first time in 2011.

I like think the faster it gets worse, the faster it gets better, we can begin the next phase of recovery. Politics are stretching the inevitable out as long as possible though, creating more lingering uncertainty. The bear in me is going to hibernate for awhile. I'm neutral again but will be keeping my focus on breadth indicators.

Just for fun I'm going to say we see a dead cross on CAD/USD in mid-October and the Greetaly situation spiral out of control towards the end of this year.


----------



## humble_pie

_
" Just for fun I'm going to say we see a dead cross on CAD/USD in mid-October and the Greetaly situation spiral out of control towards the end of this year." _

don't forget that brad set up his Doomsday book this am & is now recording all the forecastings of senior posters in cmf forum ... so he can ... make fun of them ... some day in the future ... even ... little ... bears ... straight out of goldilocks.


----------



## gibor365

So, guys, what is your forecast for rest of thw week? I'm frequent mistaken, but think that Wed and Thu marjets are up, Fri - down


----------



## ddkay

Obama's job speech on Thursday has the secret sauce



> WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--While the White House remains tight-lipped about the new job-growing plan President Barack Obama will deliver to Congress this week, officials said it will differ from his last jobs package in at least one significant way: It will be detailed enough so that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office will be able to judge its economic impact.
> 
> Obama is expected to lay out, in a highly-anticipated speech before a joint session of Congress Thursday, a new jobs plan that will include a mix of tax and spending proposals to revive the moribund U.S. economy. With the unemployment rate at 9.1% and about 14 million Americans looking for work, the pressure is on President Obama to go big.
> 
> The White House has said the plan will be significant, paid for and aimed at boosting job growth right away.
> 
> "What is indisputable is that we need to do things that will have a direct impact in the short term to grow the economy and create jobs," White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said Tuesday. He continued, "And the president will put forward proposals that do just that."
> 
> Key to any deal will be getting bipartisan support, something the White House has stressed is possible.
> 
> "It contains ideas that have historically garnered bipartisan support by the very members who will sit in the hall on Thursday night," Carney said.
> 
> Carney said the plan will be detailed enough that CBO can judge, or "score" in Washington parlance, the plan's economic impact. That may help garner some support, or at least blunt some criticism.
> 
> In April, Obama delivered a new jobs framework in a speech at George Washington University . Republicans quickly criticized the plan as vague, among other things.
> 
> CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf was asked in June at a hearing before the House Budget Committee whether he had estimated the plan's economic impact. "We don't estimate speeches," he said.
> 
> Questions persisted through the summer about whether Obama would get specific enough with his framework for it to be assessed by CBO. Obama and other White House officials were working with congressional leaders to find a way to reduce the deficit and reach a deal on raising the debt limit.
> 
> The White House said this summer that putting on paper the ideas being discussed in private would gum up the process. "It becomes charged politically and your chances of actually getting an agreement diminish significantly" when you detail what is being discussed in private, Carney said in July.
> 
> -By Jared A. Favole , Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9256; [email protected] dowjones.com
> 
> (END) Dow Jones Newswires
> 09-06-11 1807ET
> Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


----------



## Goldfinger

*Whats ahead*

ES low will be 1018 to 980 from there it will go to 2565 or 2665 into 2013

TSE I believe they have a futures mkt run out from the MSE...so have to find out more...but this is going to 31-40,000 in by 2015. 

After the gold and silver corrects and the commodities all of them softs, metals, energies, meats, currencies, indices...etc all a boom...gold will see $2,500-2,600 ( 979.50 x 2.618 = 2,564.33 ) Silver will be the better bet at $100-120 or $120-143.

Natural Gas will get to $18-22 into 2012 from an upcoming low area in late Sept early October 2011 of 3.50-3.26. It could remain sideways around 3.70-3.80 till then. But a good pop is coming and $8-9 is a guranteed bet.

All you need is one trade to freedom....Once you do it....it all becomes easier...a la Wheat in 2010 and Cotton in 2010/2011, Gold from Aug 2010 and silver esp from Jan 27, 2011 till April 25, 2011.

YM will be 24-28,000 by 2016.

Just remember Warren Buffet has a bet that the Dow and maybe the ES will be higher by 2017/2019 than it was in 2007 or so. He bet a bunch of hedge or money managers.....who see doom and gloom. Buffet is worth $40 billion...these other jokers have a JOB and DO NOT HAVE 2 CENTS TO RUB TOGEHTER unless they stole if from the company and lying to the public...buy this stock while I'm selling bs.

Ok till next time...got to do my arm curls...these scotch bottles are getting heavier..good thing.


----------



## ddkay

My feeling is that there will be gridlock in Congress again, Obama will use the $300B stimulus plan that's almost sure to get rejected as a campaign tool to pin the blame on Repubs again


----------



## Belguy

The markets are down, the markets are up.

One step forward and two steps back.


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> One step forward and two steps back.


Belguy, put quotes when you quote famous V.Lenin's article


----------



## sags

If the Republicans refuse to approve the massive amount of money required to stimulate the US economy, there will be no need for Obama to campaign on the issue.

The results of inaction will be self evident to everyone, and the Republicans will bear the blame.


----------



## dogcom

It doesn't matter any more what they do as the can is almost done being kicked down the road. The debt problem in the US needs to be taken care of and no amount of stimulus is going to help except delay it a little longer.


----------



## Larry6417

The NY Times had a very interesting article today. According to the Philly Fed, professional forecasters, as a group, have never successfully predicted a recession. The only times that the consensus forecast of the chances of a recession have exceeded 50% have been when the economy has already been in recession. See www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/business...n-the-verge-of-a-double-dip-recession.html?hp


----------



## Abha

dogcom said:


> It doesn't matter any more what they do as the can is almost done being kicked down the road. The debt problem in the US needs to be taken care of and no amount of stimulus is going to help except delay it a little longer.


The can will never reach the end of the road. 

As long as we have a functioning society, debt will always be rolled over and pushed back for future generations to handle.


----------



## Larry6417

A wise man once said that if something cannot continue indefinitely, then it will eventually stop. Eventually lenders quit lending to deadbeats - even AAA (or former AAA) deadbeats.


----------



## ddkay

How does DLR/DLR.U work? If I want to convert some cash into USD and eventually buy stuff with it, will this ETF let me move DLR.U USD cash into my brokers USD cash account?


----------



## Homerhomer

Larry6417 said:


> A wise man once said that if something cannot continue indefinitely, then it will eventually stop. Eventually lenders quit lending to deadbeats - even AAA (or former AAA) deadbeats.


Agree, nothing will last forever that includes debts and well functioning societies, even the once where a hockey game can cause riots ;-)


----------



## Abha

Homerhomer said:


> Agree, nothing will last forever that includes debts and well functioning societies, even the once where a hockey game can cause riots ;-)


well then I welcome the opportunity to scrounge the wastelands with the rest of you...in the not too distant future


----------



## humble_pie

_( ddkay there are lots of threads about this topic in cmf forum, this is not the right thread, please utilize the correct thread in the future )_

sorry about the above 
that was the Royal Mail speaking.
no idea how he managed to get on here.

re DLR, one of the best descriptions of DLR/DLR.U gambitting is in Canadian Capitalist blog.

i just tried to get the link for you but i have a new computer w ie9 which i dislike hugely & one of the worst features is the ridiculously tiny address bar that will hardly ever allow copying (maybe once in 15 attempts) Could not get it to work.

but you can find the entry on CC blog easily. It's dated 25 may 2011. Or search CC blog for "gambit + dlr." You'll find other related articles that are useful.


----------



## ddkay

I'm starting to get very bearish even on gold and IMO when that happens (no more hedges) that will start capitulation in stocks and the US Dollar will soar, could have a 20% correction by next week. Of course with the printing press a move like that can be short lived, but it doesn't rule out the possibility of it happening.

ty humble_pie I'm going to search CC's blog


----------



## HaroldCrump

ddkay said:


> that will start capitulation in stocks and the US Dollar will soar, could have a 20% correction by next week.


Are you predicting a 20% correction in equities by next week?
Isn't that a lot for 1 week? We didn't have that even back in 2008.

Remember...big brother brad is watching and keeping score.


----------



## brad

HaroldCrump said:


> Remember...big brother brad is watching and keeping score.


I'm not watching and keeping score of predictions that are presented clearly as guesses: e.g. "could have a 20% correction by next week."

What I find hysterical (and thus will track, but only when I happen to see them) are the confident predictions presented as all-knowing visions into the future, with no caveats. "XYZ stock will go to $480 by June of 2012," that sort of thing.

I figure if I track enough of those and revisit them to show how far off they turn out to be (I'm sure a few will be right on the mark too, given the odds), it'll help people appreciate the folly of making such confident pronouncements about future stock prices or market behaviour.


----------



## fatcat

> The can will never reach the end of the road.
> 
> As long as we have a functioning society, debt will always be rolled over and pushed back for future generations to handle.


 i think many have concluded that to be the case (the can never reaching the end of the road) and are saying "let it all go" "let it come crashing down" and we will rebuild on a more sound footing ... they tend to be from the "austrian" school and the political right as far as i can tell ... maybe they are right but i am not looking forward to the pain


----------



## Argonaut

Gold will hit $2000 on my next birthday, between 7:00AM and 8:00AM. I will not reveal my birthday, less I give clue to my identity.

@fatcat: I agree with the Austrian school.

20% correction.. hmm, I doubt it. TD Waterhouse is now offering me $9.99 trades so I want to dump Questrade like a brick in an outhouse. But I don't want to be caught flatfooted and unable to trade during the agonizing transfer process. To anyone who has transferred, how did it go?


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> Gold will hit $2000 on my next birthday, between 7:00AM and 8:00AM. I will not reveal my birthday, less I give clue to my identity.
> 
> @fatcat: I agree with the Austrian school.
> 
> 20% correction.. hmm, I doubt it. TD Waterhouse is now offering me $9.99 trades so I want to dump Questrade like a brick in an outhouse. But I don't want to be caught flatfooted and unable to trade during the agonizing transfer process. To anyone who has transferred, how did it go?


Takes about 6 weeks. It's agonizing as you're not able to trade but the process is pretty seamless other than that.

Questrade will likely cause you the most issues as they usually throw a tantrum every time somebody wants to leave them.


----------



## gibor365

argonaut said:


> td waterhouse is now offering me $9.99 trades o?


cibc $6.95 per trade


----------



## Abha

brad said:


> "XYZ stock will go to $480 by June of 2012," that sort of thing.


I want to be on that list by saying that Apple will be $500 at some point in 2012. My prediction: End of Q2 - Middle of Q3


----------



## ddkay

HaroldCrump said:


> Are you predicting a 20% correction in equities by next week?
> Isn't that a lot for 1 week? We didn't have that even back in 2008.
> 
> Remember...big brother brad is watching and keeping score.


20% in a week does sound extreme lol, I wouldn't be surprised to be off though. I'm using currencies as my reference point. Say CAD/USD goes to 0.845 from 1.01. I think the 2009 low for CAD/USD was just under 0.80. So I'm envisioning a repeat of that type of scenario, but probably worse because the liquidity problems are much bigger than 2008.


----------



## Belguy

Oh goodie--now there is a new "credible" terrorist threat!! 

That should help to bump up the markets--particularly if anything comes to fruition.


----------



## ddkay

This "credible" security threat is three suspects who left Afghanistan last month and came into the US


----------



## ddkay

The DIA/GLD ratio has broken out of range for the first time since January 10 2008


----------



## kevinkentt

ddkay said:


> Thought it might be a good idea to have a thread like this. A lot of people have posted their trade ideas and guesses about general market direction, but they've been pretty erratic and scattered.
> 
> So, what do you guys think will happen in the markets tomorrow?
> 
> I'll start... I think we'll break 1100 again on the S&P in the next few days, VIX spike to 48+. I don't think what Bernanke says will have any significant positive effects tomorrow. I'm monitoring Hurricane Irene, it looks like she's developing into a Category 3 and on a direct path to NYC going into the weekend. NYC released a flood evacuation map and Wall Street is literally going under water (Zone C): http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf
> 
> In other news, Japan's PM Kan just resigned.



I think it’s very reasonable to say that the stock market is fairly valued at this time. A lot of news, risks and revised expectations are now priced into the market and share prices reflect all the current information. There’s good value in many stocks at this time, but the question is: how long will they remain good values? Another month or perhaps another year? Nobody knows the answer.


----------



## ddkay

Is this right?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR:IND

1 year Greece government bonds are paying out 98% yield


----------



## Yudansha

Which is having more impact on today's sell off, Top ECB dude resigns or the 9/11 anniversary terror threat?


----------



## ddkay

Maybe it's space weather?

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-09-sunspot-bristling-flares-x18-m67.html



> A third and fourth flare have erupted from sunspot 1283. The third came on September 7 at 6:36 PM ET, and was categorized as an X1.8 by the GOES spacecraft, making it the second X-class flare within 24 hours.
> 
> There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with all three of the recent flares, but none of them are expected to travel directly toward Earth, and the first two were unlikely to cause aurora.
> 
> NASA computer models suggest that the latest CME may give a glancing blow to Earth on the morning of September 11, and might create some aurora.
> 
> The fourth flare from this same sunspot was detected by GOES at 11:36 AM ET on September 8. This was an M6.7 flare, considered moderate.


----------



## Belguy

One person over at the ECB resigns and my retirement portfolio takes a big hit. Is this a game that I want to be in where every little thing that happens anywhere in the world on any given day causes the markets to tank? The number of possible negative triggers boggles the mind!!! I'm getting tired of it!!
There is no confidence out there anywhere in the world today and what is going to turn that around and when??

Where is CC when we need him? Is he still advocating staying the course?


----------



## Homerhomer

Belguy said:


> One person over at the ECB resigns and my retirement portfolio takes a big hit. Is this a game that I want to be in where every little thing that happens anywhere in the world on any given day causes the markets to tank? The number of possible negative triggers boggles the mind!!! I'm getting tired of it!!
> There is no confidence out there anywhere in the world today and what is going to turn that around and when??
> 
> Where is CC when we need him? Is he still advocating staying the course?


Why are you punishing yourself? if the market are causing you such anxiety why don't you just cash it and move to GIC?


----------



## Abha

Belguy said:


> There is no confidence out there anywhere in the world today and what is going to turn that around and when??


You seem to be taking these downward movements particularly hard. Perhaps parking your money in GIC's is the most prudent course of action.


----------



## Easy Does It

I don't believe that things are not going to get much better now that tax loss selling season is right around the corner.


----------



## fatcat

interesting article on seekingalpha.com about the correlation between the european debt crisis and its affect (or lack of) on north american markets ...there is so far a tight correlation between the etf XLF (financial etf) and the french CAC40 ... the writer theorizes that when we see this correlation break down, we might begin to see north american markets move on their own and be less affected by europe .... http://seekingalpha.com/article/292781-how-long-will-markets-hinge-on-europe?source=kizur


----------



## Yudansha

Belguy I think you need to adjust your allocations to hold more bonds/fixed income. What is your split now? 

Depending on what happens this weekend, Monday should be interesting. I find it highly unlikely a 9/11 anniversary attack will go down, I think today is a good day to pick up some a few cheap stocks. Bought some UPRO today....


----------



## gibor365

Homerhomer said:


> Why are you punishing yourself? if the market are causing you such anxiety why don't you just cash it and move to GIC?


Because the same day he does it, market will move up  and he will be even more upset ...


----------



## brad

Belguy said:


> One person over at the ECB resigns and my retirement portfolio takes a big hit.


How often do you check the value of your retirement portfolio? I check mine twice a year; there's really no point checking more often than that unless you're already retired or close to it.


----------



## gibor365

brad said:


> How often do you check the value of your retirement portfolio? I check mine twice a year; there's really no point checking more often than that unless you're already retired .....


He is


----------



## Cal

Argonaut said:


> Gold will hit $2000 on my next birthday, between 7:00AM and 8:00AM. I will not reveal my birthday, less I give clue to my identity.


Hilarious.


----------



## KaeJS

Yudansha said:


> I find it highly unlikely a 9/11 anniversary attack will go down, I think today is a good day to pick up some a few cheap stocks. Bought some UPRO today....


I agree. I don't think we'll see a 10th anniversary ordeal.

And boy oh boy.... RY.TO, I want you at $45. Lets do it!


----------



## Abha

KaeJS said:


> I agree. I don't think we'll see a 10th anniversary ordeal.
> 
> And boy oh boy.... RY.TO, I want you at $45. Lets do it!


I'm circling RY as well. At $45, I'd make this one of my largest positions.


----------



## Belguy

The point is that we live in a post 9/11 world and there are a host of folks out there who don't like us or our way of life very much and would like nothing better than to inflict pain on us any which way that they can.

Just about anything that I can contemplate them doing would be a Black Swan event and would cause the markets to tank again (or still).

If an official of the ECB resigning can cause the world's markets to drop like they have today, then imagine how some kook setting off a dirty bomb in a large American city would affect the markets.

It's a dangerous and uncertain world out there!!

Buy, hold, and prosper! Ya, right!!


----------



## ddkay

The US spent $4.4 trillion on wars that didn't accomplish much, the economy is in shambles, border security does groin checks, morale is down. If you ask me, the terrorists already won.

As for buy hold and prosper, haven't you made astronomical gains in other years? The market can't always go up.


----------



## Belguy

Yes, but any guesses on where the bottom is this time and didn't we already experience a deep drop just three short years ago?

The Great Recession may go on for several more years yet!!!

Potentially second only to the Great Depression.

P.S. Never put your hard-earned savings in jeopardy. 

We grow too soon olde and too late schmart.


----------



## KaeJS

That is why a combination of Solid Dividend Payers and self-taught Stock Trading go hand in hand perfectly.

Either way, like I said, I don't think the terrorists will try anything. They like to be secretive. This is just some rumour bullshit going around that some people started.

You wanna be scared? Be scared if something _doesn't_ happen.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> imagine how some kook setting off a dirty bomb in a large American city would affect the markets.


I don't imagine it, it most definitely will happen, it is only a matter of time. We live in a very different world post 9/11 and terrorism did not end with the death of bin Laden.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Speaking of terrorism, watching the season premiere of the Fifth Estate...The Last Days of Bin Laden. Chilling.


----------



## dogcom

The last days of Bin Laden was a number of years ago and not the charade we heard about and the quick dumping of the body in the ocean.


----------



## ddkay

Went and looked back at how the market reacted to 9/11

SP500 Levels:
Aug 24 2001 1,184.93
Aug 27 2001 1,179.21
Aug 28 2001 1,161.17
Aug 29 2001 1,148.56
Aug 30 2001 1,129.03
Aug 31 2001 1,113.58
Sep 04 2001 1,132.94
Sep 05 2001 1,131.56
Sep 06 2001 1,106.40
Sep 07 2001 1,085.78
Sep 10 2001 1,092.54
Sep 17 2001 1,038.77
Sep 18 2001 1,032.74
Sep 19 2001 1,015.96
Sep 20 2001 984.54
Sep 21 2001 965.80
Sep 24 2001 1,003.45
Sep 25 2001 1,012.17
Sep 26 2001 1,007.04
Sep 27 2001 1,018.40
Sep 28 2001 1,040.90
Oct 01 2001 1,038.02
Oct 02 2001 1,051.12
Oct 03 2001 1,072.27

The high (Aug 24 2001) to low (Sep 21 2001) percentage decrease was 18.5%, which almost immediately retraced. At the time the market was in an overall downtrend that bottomed out at 768.63 on Oct 10 2002, and that led to the 1,576.09 all time market high on Oct 11 2007. (Why do these things happen in September or October?)

Also interestingly enough the market peak for this year of 1,370.58 on May 02 2011 has been labelled by some as the "Bin Laden High".

Realistically there's a higher chance of Greece defaulting this weekend than another terrorist attack. Then again the EU could call that domestic terrorism.


----------



## KaeJS

Looks to me like the markets didnt even care about 9/11.

Sep 10 - 1092
Sep 17 - 1038

Big deal.


----------



## ddkay

Yeah the trend was already marked, down and down, just a continuation of deleveraging from the dot-com bubble burst. Of course two planes hitting the towers didn't help anyone, but that event itself did not have much weight for the markets other than symbolically. It was the CB policies and loose regulation under Greenspan and Bush after the 2002 bottom that made prices of stocks, gold, real estate, and pretty much every commodity go nuts.

/me takes off his stock market historian hat


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> If an official of the ECB resigning can cause the world's markets to drop like they have today, then imagine how some kook setting off a dirty bomb in a large American city would affect the markets.


The talking heads always quote a reason for the markets' movements. They have no idea why the market is moving.

Watching financial pornography can adversely affect your health and wealth.


----------



## ddkay

The latest from Greece courtesy of @MatinaStevis live tweets on Twitter (read from the bottom up)



> 2 major announcements by Papandreou: plan to distribute state land to young aspiring farmers/search for oil & gas in Ionian & S. Crete #deth
> Papandreou concludes address
> Papandreou: I 've said it before, I'm not here for my position or to get re-elected, I'm here so that we can succeed together #deth
> Papandreou: to those hoping that if Greece leaves the euro, they can buy up the country cheaply, every Greek will stand opposed #deth
> Papandreou: I ask that all political parties act responsibly.... It's not me pleading. It's the motherland #deth
> Papandreou: Any bank that needs recapitalisation, this will be done through common stock so the ppl can benefit from future profits #deth
> Papandreou: I ask the banks to respect the support they've received from the state & the ppl. The state supports them.
> Papandreou: I know our youth want to leave the country... I understand them... but I ask you to not give up... the country needs you #deth
> Papandreou: I look around me and see ppl of my generation... we have given huge burdens to the youth. We owe the youth a lot #deth
> Papandreou: We can make it and we can prove those seeing Greece as a failure wrong
> Papandreou: I am determined to fight to the end against everything and everything holding Greece back (ref to trade unionists, closed shops)
> Papandreou implicitly lashes out against highly remunerated public-sector workers, mega-haves & newspaper/TV owners
> Papandreou: we hope that those who have made money here will participate in our efforts, like rich ppl abroad asking to be taxed more
> @Old_Holborn Don't get excited. It sounded like minor policy to redistribute state agri land to unemployed youth
> Papandreou outlines expenditure programmes of 3.5b euro to combat youth & women's unemployment
> Papandreou: I announce that Greece is to begin searching for natural gas in the Ionian sea and south of Crete
> Papandreou: tomorrow we start distribution of land to young people who want to go into agriculture
> After tourism bit, Papandreou turns to agriculture
> Papandreou: we are aiming at China and India, as well as the US, for tourism
> Papandreou: we are fighting against entrenched interests... we need every single citizen's help (weak applause)
> @MatinaStevis he also said "how will growth return if deposits don't return, deposits that today...are returning"!!!!!
> Papandreou outlines improvement in exports, tourism figures in H1 2011
> Papandreou now outlines expenditure cuts & revenue performance in 2010
> Papandreou: Who will fund our growth if our banks can't reach the market to borrow?
> First break for ovation for Papandreou at "Yes, we can make it" line.
> Papandreou: we will not allow Greece to become the scapegoat for problems in Europe
> Papandreou: at the point where Eurozone stands right now, every time we delay, any hesitation we show, puts the country in peril
> Papandreou: despite the deeper-than-expected recession this year, we will stay the course... to achieve a primary surplus
> Papandreou: we are prepared to make more decisions, do whatever it takes to ensure the country stands tall
> Papandreou: we are fully determined determined to stick to our end of the deal. Starting w sticking to the July 21st decisions
> Papandreou: the decisions we made are unique in the history of Europe, we cannot abandon it and waste our sacrifices
> Papandreou: we made decisions that have guaranteed our financing needs until 2020 & improvement of debt profile through extension to 30 yrs
> Papandreou: we are giving a huge fight, seriously negotiating for our collective and national interest
> Papandreou: We decided to fight to avoid a disaster, to avoid default and to make sure we stay in the euro
> Papandreou: ...the banking sector that did not always manage the national wealth in a transparent and correct manner
> Papandreou recounts run-up to 2010 deficit revelation, cites bad statistics and chronic overspending & weak revenues
> Papandreou: reforms... are an upward struggle among a international thunderstorm. Our priority is to save the country from default
> Papandreou takes to the stage to give keynote economic policy address amid rumours of default.
> A few moments before Papandreou sets out his economic policy in keynote Thessaloniki address, police violently clash w protesters
> I believe it's the president of the Thessaloniki expo speaking now, ahead of PM Papandreou. You can watch it here government.gov.gr
> Papandreou makes his way through the hall to the stage, lots of handshaking, address commences
> Reminder: live-tweeting Papandreou address on the Greek economy, which is starting now in Thessaloniki
> Papandreou arrives at hall accompanied by his wife, welcomed by standing ovation by most party chieftains
> Ok, ridiculous. PM Papandreou TWEETS photo from hall where he was supposed to have started his address 31 minutes ago.
> Papandreou address now 30 minutes late. For a PM who claims to be "westernised", he is consistently late for the most crucial speeches.
> Needless to say, Papandreou address is running late. Apparently will start soon. I'm live-tweeting it in English
> @MatinaStevis Acc to Spiegel, Schaeuble staff working on 2 scenarios: 1st Greece defaults within eurozone, 2nd leaves euro.
> @MatinaStevis EFSF wld provide emergency credit lines to euro banks that will b affectd by Greek default.
> Thanks for correction, Papandreou presser will not be followed by journos' questions, the presser is tomorrow. Apologies
> Der Spiegel carries story on Greek default. Warning: Google Translate particularly bad w German spiegel.de/politik/auslan…


----------



## ddkay

Bell started laying off 1200 people on Thursday, starting with executives and working down to lower levels in the following weeks. Trying to get that stock price up again, or preparing for worsening market conditions.


----------



## larry81

its the end of the world !

Stocks will crash (it's already crashing!)
Gold will crash (it's in a bubble!)
Bonds will crash (interest rate will rise!)
USD will crash (inflation, hyperinflation!)

yadayadayada, end of civilisation, Roman empire collapsed, Japan secular bear market, elliot wave pattern, blablabla


----------



## Belguy

With a little over a quarter of the year left to go, the markets are down 8 per cent and worsening. Things better turn around PDQ if we are going to salvage a positive year but it's hard to be optimistic.


----------



## el oro

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> As I said in one of the oil threads some time ago, congrats to the dip buyers. Unfortunately, however, the markets have reached the bottom end of a cluster of resistance. The upper end being just 3-4% above current levels, looking at S&P and the TSX. The rally from the bottom has been weak, the panic has disappeared. If this is a bear market rally, this may be the end of the road. So, I'm selling some of my recent dip purchases and will hold cash. If we reach closer to the upper end of the resistance, I'll attempt a short and if we can rise above, I'll go long again.
> 
> Essentially, I will forego the next 3-5% of upside to avoid the possibility of the bear market resuming. And as we've seen recently, 3-5% is just one day of losses when the market wants to plunge. For the sake of buy and hold investors, I hope I'm doing this all for nothing. Just waiting for a people to buy my last few stocks now and I'll be cashed up along with gold and a penny stock I'll hold on to.


S&P 500 over 2 months









I posted the quote above on the blue arrow day. If stocks on your watchlist follow the main markets, I would advise you to wait a little longer before pulling the trigger. Lots going on here technically, but I'll focus on the main point. The area of the blue circle, if reached this coming week, will see technical people entering shorts. One more decent down day and we're there. Minimum target shown below.

S&P over past year








Target: sub 1000

The same pattern is showing up on indices (TSX, DOW) and some commodities. No more dip buying for me until this pattern plays out or fails. It's not worth the risk at this point.


----------



## ddkay

VIX at 60 implies an 8% move in either direction on the SP500 this week. My guess is something extremely good or bad happens in the next two days. Definitely before Wednesday. Time is running out...


----------



## ddkay

Germany studies scenario of an "orderly" default for Greece: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KL09mjbpJ0E


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Germany studies scenario of an "orderly" default for Greece: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KL09mjbpJ0E


LOL!

And to be honest with myself and everyone on the forum --

I dont mind if it goes up 8% or down 8%. It will be interesting, nonetheless!


----------



## kcowan

Banks being hammered in early trading here in France. BNP Paribas is down over 12% one hour into the trading day. Societe General and Credit Agricole are close behind at over 11% decline on fear of Greek debt exposure.

Should be another fun day for the shorts. CAC40 down over 4%...


----------



## ddkay

So today we're up on unconfirmed probably false rumours that China is buying Italian assets and bonds... I guess as long as the bailout mentality continues the market hasn't bottomed.

A €7 billion auction of BTPs (Italian government bonds) begins tomorrow. The ECB should be buying again...


----------



## sags

ddkay said:


> Bell started laying off 1200 people on Thursday, starting with executives and working down to lower levels in the following weeks. Trying to get that stock price up again, or preparing for worsening market conditions.


Ford is closing their Talbotville, Ontario plant on Thursday. 

There were 1100 direct employees, and another estimated 6,000 in the surrounding area for suppliers and small businesses. 

It sure doesn't look like a recovery around here, anytime soon.


----------



## ddkay

Overleveraged more than any point in history?



> OTTAWA (Dow Jones)--Canadian appetite for debt showed no sign of lessening, with a key indicator scaling a new high as consumers borrowed to purchase houses and cars at a rate that was over three times faster than growth in their disposable incomes.
> 
> The ratio of credit market debt to personal disposable income in the household sector grew to 148.7%, erasing the previous record of 147.3% set in the first three months of the year, Statistics Canada said Tuesday, marking the highest level since the agency began to compile the figures in 1990.
> 
> Credit market debt, which includes mortgage, consumer credit and loans, increased 1.7%, while personal disposable incomes grew just 0.5%.
> 
> Consumers have taken advantage of low borrowing costs and rising house prices to take on debt, prompting policymakers to warn of a shock to increasingly stretched households when interest rates eventually rise.
> 
> This appetite for debt is a relatively new phenomenon in Canada compared to the U.S. But where U.S. households have been deleveraging in recent years in the wake of the housing slump there, Canadian consumers haven't really cut back on borrowing.
> 
> Meanwhile, StatsCan said household net worth fell 0.3% in April through June, the first decline in four quarters as share prices plunged to more than offset an increase in the value of homes. Per capita household net worth fell to C$184,300 from C$185,500 in the first quarter, the first decline in a year.
> 
> Website: http://www.statcan.gc.ca
> 
> -By Nirmala Menon , Dow Jones Newswires; [email protected], 613-237- 0668
> 
> (END) Dow Jones Newswires
> 09-13-11 0841ET


----------



## R.O.V.

Afetr reading the above quote, I feel so fortunate to be completely debt free...now if I could only figure out how to invest...right now it's HISA's and GIC's for me


----------



## ddkay

Slow drip default



> [Greece] Government adopts partial payments freeze
> 
> The payments freeze which excludes salaries and pensions, that the Finance Ministry has all but declared is leading to a swelling of overdue payments by the various state departments and agencies, further starving the market of precious liquidity.
> 
> The decision, nevertheless, was adopted in view of the fact that the central government is projected to run out of cash by mid-October, and that the troika of international creditors seems determined not to give the green light to the disbursement of the sorely needed installment of 8.0 billion euros without effective new revenue measures.
> 
> “We are trying to ensure that the government will be able to continue functioning without problems,” Deputy Finance Minister Filippos Sachinidis said on Monday.
> 
> Overdue payments by various government government entities (hospitals, social insurance funds and local government) were estimated at 6.5 billion euros in July. A continuation of the payments freeze will obviously increase their arrears further.
> 
> Sources said the troika notified the government on Saturday that its representatives will not return to Athens if the new measures are not adopted by the Cabinet and the ruling party’s parliamentary group. These measures, which the troika demands be implemented in the next few weeks, include further pay cuts in the public sector, changes in the labor market and the creation of a “labor standby” scheme for surplus public servants.
> 
> According to data released by the Finance Ministry on Monday, the budget deficit widened to 18.6 billion euros in the January-August period from 15.7 billion a year earlier - a 22.5 percent increase.
> 
> Ordinary budget revenue fell to 31.1 billion euros from 32.8 billion while spending rose to 47.8 billion euros from 43.5 billion.
> 
> The recent figures, showing a further deterioration, along with increasing concern and speculation abroad that Greece will eventually default, are sending the costs of insuring Greek debt sky-high. The 10-year Greek bond spread climbed to 2,072 basis points, while the five-year Greek credit default swap ascended to 3,508 basis points, compared to 1,238 for Portugal, 1,175 for Venezuela and 918 for Ireland.


----------



## larry81

just dropping a small article on long-term prediction:

http://lazytraders.com/insights/100-year-of-8-secular-bull-bear-market-cycles-graphic/

some food for thought !


----------



## Cal

As per the article/chart....It appears we may easily have another 10 years of this market behaviour.


----------



## fatcat

> As per the article/chart....It appears we may easily have another 10 years of this market behaviour.


 unlikely ... a huge chunk of money in the north american markets is controlled by boomers and i don't think they have the stomach to ride this coaster for 10 years ... look at belguy ... this needs to start to settle into something predictable or people will leave for good ... i am certain this is what keeps bernanke up at night


----------



## larry81

Cal said:


> As per the article/chart....It appears we may easily have another 10 years of this market behaviour.


which is perfect for young adults in accumulation phase but not for seniors (who should by the way own a significant portion of bonds/fixed income)


----------



## Assetologist

Thanks for sharing Larry.

Again, investing in the bluest of dividend growth stocks seems to be an excellent strategy. Not only will one capture 'spendable' dividends which may keep up with inflation but if the business also grows the future may also present unrealized capital gains to the patient investor.

This can work for many stages of the wealth cycle.


----------



## Argonaut

Let me know when you guys get somewhat bullish or think the market is turning around so I can buy some puts. Sentiment in this thread has almost been a perfect indicator of where the market is going.. the opposite direction.


----------



## Belguy

There has been more volatility in the markets so far this YEAR alone than in the entire DECADE of the 90's!!

Gotta love this roller coaster ride!!

By the way, I have still sold NOTHING this year other than for rebalancing purposes.


----------



## ddkay

It's quad opex week, don't stand too tall Argo . If we were going to crash it would have happened on Monday or Tuesday, but we didn't so now there's a strong move in the other direction likely topping out around SP500 1200. Anyway, another week, another indecisive market.


----------



## gibor365

Read today stats that in 3rd year of the Presidential term from 1927, average return +19.4 (the biggest one), and from 1927 only twice stock was down: -43.5% in 1929 (Hoover) amd in -0.9% in 1937 (FDR). So far in 2011 we're heading down....


----------



## Dmoney

On the bright side, we'll be a part of history.


----------



## Goldfinger

*Where to now?*

Oh boy..

While all you fools keep with all the stupid news, about prior to re-election years, etc...which the gang at wall street puts out for you suckers to consume.......

The ES will get to 1018/980...this up move is for the expiration week this week..option expiration...then they will slaughter the lambs tills Sept 28/ Oct 5 double bottom.

Could I be wrong...yes...chance is less than 10%. After this downdraft when all the 9-5 gurus, money managers...I mean fools ...will be talking about recession, Carney dropping rates, depression, the ES will move to 2500+ come end of 2012 or into 2013.

Buffet bought Washington Post in 1973 and it dropped 50% AFTER HE BOUGHT IT...HE WAS A LOSER...IT STAYED LOW FOR 2 YEARS AND WENT KNOWHERE FOR ANOTHER 10-14 YEARS....AS I mentioned before Buffet waited 21 years to become MEGA RICH.

King Tut and all you fools don't know Buffet...I DO.

NOBODY CAN WAIT 21 YEARS TO GET MEGA RICH...for if they could they would be one...but when you listen to tv, read to much like ALL of YOU do from your posts...YOU know NOTHING.

If you real smart like Buffet...KING TUT and the rest you should be buying Japan..."buy low...sell high." But NOBODY is buying Japan...I am...and will load up more into 2016.

As a matter of fact....my consulting fees have a clause whereby I receive over 50% of my income in the Nikkei index. 

BTW, I will be shorting the YEN hard after its makes it big high in 2012...I plan to make this my "example" of a billion dollar trade into 2019.

Yes...NOBODY ON BAY street is better than me...NOBODY.


----------



## ddkay

I'd sure like to know how Japan is going to fix their demographics problem. That is, their rapidly aging population, their youth who have little to no risk appetite or entrepreneurship spirit, and old timer execs that refuse to give up power to the next generation. Japan will continue stagnate until they fix those problems. Then, Japan will have a chance to look radically different than today and a decade or two after NEKKEI 225 may hit whatever levels you suggest.

The media talked up recession a year before it actually happened. Everyone was questioning how a subprime loan goes wrong, how could banks lend money with no credit history, etc. except those who weren't paying attention.


----------



## Argonaut

Goldfinger said:


> Yes...NOBODY ON BAY street is better than me...NOBODY.


lol. Who is this guy?


----------



## leoc2

Argonaut said:


> lol. Who is this guy?


Is it the return of "I'm Howard"


----------



## HaroldCrump

Argonaut said:


> lol. Who is this guy?


It is clear - he is Warren Buffet.
No one else can know so many secrets about Buffet.


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> which is perfect for young adults in accumulation phase


I'm smiling 



Argonaut said:


> lol. Who is this guy?


Yeah. Really. 

He can suit himself. I'm not buying Japan.


----------



## ddkay

Massive government intervention this morning! The effects are supposed to last 3 months... I don't think it will take us that far though.

http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2011/html/pr110915.en.html



> 15 September 2011 - ECB announces additional US dollar liquidity-providing operations over year-end
> 
> The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided, in coordination with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, to conduct three US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately three months covering the end of the year. These operations will be conducted in addition to the ongoing weekly seven-day operations announced on 10 May 2010. The schedule for these additional operations is as follows:
> 
> Tender date	Settlement date	Maturity date
> 12 October 2011	13 October 2011	5 January 2012
> 9 November 2011	10 November 2011	2 February 2012
> 7 December 2011	8 December 2011	1 March 2012
> 
> These will all take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment. Further information on tender procedures can be found on the ECB’s website.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Massive government intervention this morning! The effects are supposed to last 3 months... I don't think it will take us that far though.
> 
> http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2011/html/pr110915.en.html


They just want to finish the year on the plus side


----------



## ddkay

Thoughts on the TSX: it can go anywhere from here. possibly up above the cloud, likely down below the cloud.


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> Thoughts on the TSX: it can go anywhere from here. possibly up above the cloud, likely down below the cloud.


I think this chart is too simplistic, please consider adding arrows, stars, dots and more colours ;-)

Just teasing you, I enjoy your posts and please keep em coming ;-)


----------



## ddkay

Let's say we hypothetically went through the green trendline at the crosshair sometime in the next two or three weeks (this chart uses weekly time periods through March 2012), there's not a lot of price support underneath it so things could fall apart quickly. Hopefully we just go sideways the rest of the year that leaves like a 1000 pt trading range.

To resume a bull market price needs to catch up to and pass the green line it broke in June. It would be nice if we could start an uptrend again. Europe would need to buy itself more time to do a controlled default i.e. limited effects of contagion. I have no idea how that would be possible.


----------



## el oro

We don't need to catch that green line to resume a bull market. Closing above the Aug. 31/Sept. 1 high will neutralize some bears though. Bears are still out in full force until then.


----------



## ddkay

Someone is dumping gold tonight, wonder who? /GC at 1765. Hope my worst case scenario is not coming true. That would be, a big gold dump while stocks go sideways or rally precedes stock capitulation.


----------



## Argonaut

Market is being driven by politics right now and not economic numbers. Note the poor data today and the rally. If you look at it all logically, with all likely possible outcomes, gold is a good bet. Enemies of gold: high interest rates, decreasing money supply, and a rip-roaring economy. I don't see any of those in the cards. Higher gold confirms the logic, lower gold is a good buying opportunity. Although a bit too volatile, the recent consolidation is good. $1750 is a place for another reversal.

I was talking to a guy from the bullion exchange the other day and he said he expected silver to double in the next year. I don't agree. $50 is the cap in my mind.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> Someone is dumping gold tonight, wonder who? /GC at 1765. Hope my worst case scenario is not coming true. That would be, a big gold dump precedes stock capitulation.


do you try to keep track of your forecast ?


----------



## ddkay

@Argo Golds worst enemy is also governments selling gold reserves because they desperately need cash and want to keep their bonds. Greece or Italy, either one is bad news.

@larry81 no I'm not tracking my forecasts. My PnL can track the ones I make a move on. Last time I said SP500 would top out around 1200. Today's high was 1209... let's see how much higher it goes now. I'm also very bullish on the US dollar so I've transferred 50% of my cash to USD.

September 15, 2011 8:46 pm - Lagarde warns IMF could withhold Greek loan


> Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, on Thursday raised the spectre of her organisation withholding its portion of an €8bn ($11bn) aid payment Greece needs by the end of this month, saying Athens had implemented requisite economic reforms “in parts”.
> 
> Speaking ahead of a highly anticipated meeting of IMF, US and European finance officials in Poland, Ms Lagarde said Athens had to re-ignite “the urge to deliver on commitments” made by its government after a period during which “momentum had slowed down”.
> 
> “If there has been no implementation, we don’t pay,” she told CNBC, in describing the IMF’s lending practices.
> 
> [...]
> 
> The eurozone’s finance ministers are expected to decide today whether Greece’s latest concessions are adequate. The move would give political cover to resume negotiations with Athens over the €8bn aid Greece needs to meet government payrolls.


----------



## Argonaut

One should recall the movie, Dumb & Dumber. In it, there is a briefcase full of money that is quickly replaced by a bunch of IOU's, until that is all that there is left in the case. Essentially this is the European economy.


----------



## ddkay

Hahaha: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GSXbgfKFWg


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> I'm also very bullish on the US dollar so I've transferred 50% of my cash to USD.


Me 2 . About month ago switched some potion on cash on LIRA to US money market.... not in hurry to buy US stocks as US MM doing not bad by itself... Was thinking to buy back AAPL couple of days before earnings...we'll see...


----------



## Banalanal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ays-canada-fund-manager/article2167671/page2/

Scary predictions. If there was more consensus on this it sure would be nice to reduce my stock position and hold more cash to buy on a massive dip. Not sure how to quantify the profit/loss scenario of pulling out of the market for a year and missing 3-15% gains but being in a position to buy at very low levels even if those low levels were only 20% likely to occur.


----------



## ddkay

September 15, 2011, 8:22 PM EDT - Batting .000 for the 00’s, America’s Lost Decade: Jonathan Alter



> Century of Progress
> 
> In the 1910s, we expanded health and safety standards, established the Federal Reserve, and (unlike today) quickly lifted the limitations on civil liberties enacted during World War I.
> 
> In the ‘20s, we pioneered jazz, widespread radio use, motion pictures and the managerial approaches still used by modern business.
> 
> In the ‘30s, amid the Great Depression, we built much of the infrastructure we still use -- including, most likely, the roads you drove on today and the schools where you dropped off your children.
> 
> In the ‘40s, we not only emerged as the preeminent power in the world but also helped develop radar, antibiotics and nuclear energy.
> 
> In the ‘50s, we built the interstate highway system, cured polio and used the government to help people own their own homes.
> 
> In the ‘60s, we went to the moon, made great strides toward racial equality, directed federal money toward better education and opened our borders to many more non-Europeans.
> 
> In the ‘70s, we moved toward gender equality, began dramatic advances in medical research and started cleaning up the environment.
> 
> In the ‘80s, we strengthened Social Security, reformed the tax code and fixed the immigration system (at least temporarily), while peacefully winding down the Cold War.
> 
> In the ‘90s, we balanced the budget, reformed welfare and watched the Internet -- a government creation -- transform our world.
> 
> The Lost Decade
> 
> And the past 10 years? Shoes off in the airport. Bruising unemployment. Slipping from first to 12th in college graduation. Even classic loser decades, like the 1930s and 1970s, were more productive than the oughts.


To that last point I would also add mindnumbing reality TV shows, boomer attrition, first-to-file patent law reform and other bogus policies that sells out the next generation to large corporations and stakeholders


----------



## webber22

Next Tuesday Bernanke will hold a two day discussion. Last time, there was a run up before, so expect Monday to be an up day...


----------



## larry81

webber22 said:


> Next Tuesday Bernanke will hold a two day discussion. Last time, there was a run up before, so expect Monday to be an up day...


past performance does not necessarily predict future results


----------



## ddkay

I'd buy SPY puts for Monday but if it doesn't gap down 2 days premium gets wasted. I think it's a safer bet to just stay on the sidelines and buy TZA when there's panic again.

Bernanke has used all his bullets IMO, operation twist is net negative for lenders because it flattens the yield curve. QE3 now with spillover into commodities means $200+ oil. Pretty sure that would start civil wars all over the world and someone would physically attack the US for enacting dumb shortsighted policies. The EFSF expansion vote was moved to 2012, apparently there's no urgency for that...


----------



## ddkay

Our PM is crying because the US wants to increase domestic components of their economy. The tragedy.



> OTTAWA (AFP)-- Canada's prime minister objected on Friday to U.S. President Barack Obama's $447 billion dollar jobs plan, calling a "buy American" provision of his stimulus proposal "protectionist."
> 
> "We are very concerned that once again they are looking at stimulus spending that has protectionist elements," Prime Minister Stephen Harper told reporters.
> 
> "At the state we are in, in the economy globally and here in North America , these are not positive developments in terms of moving our economies forward," he said.
> 
> "I think it is a very regrettable development and we will be expressing that regret and our desire to move forward together and positively at the highest level of the U.S. government."
> 
> Obama's American Jobs Act, the president said Thursday, could boost U.S. growth by two percent and shave 1% off the U.S. unemployment rate amid growing fears of a new recession and a stagnant recovery.
> 
> Harper had praise generally for the plan, but decried a "buy American" provision for $50 billion in infrastructure spending that he said is reminiscent of a clause included by Obama's administration in a nearly $800 billion economic recovery package adopted back in 2009.
> 
> That clause had required projects funded with federal stimulus money to use only U.S.-made steel, iron and manufactured goods.
> The following year the world's two largest trading partners signed an agreement opening up lucrative government procurement in both countries to Canadian and U.S. suppliers.
> 
> On Wednesday, Canada said it would use the accord to fight elements of Obama's new stimulus proposal that might lead to a trade lopsidedness


----------



## gibor365

too unpredictable.... in the morning out banks were sharply up, finished sharply dowm, after hours sharply up again.. what the hell is going on 

all US indexes up, european up.... only poor TSE sharply down..... who is shorting Canada? Obama?


----------



## gibor365

_The average year-end forecast for the S&P 500, courtesy of a dozen sell-side analysts, currently stands at 1329. That's down from 1370 at the end of August, and 1412 on June 27. J.P. Morgan's Thomas Lee is the most bullish of the bunch, with a forecast of 1475. BMO's Ben Joyce is the most bearish, with a forecast of 1215. _

actually when i checked out original artocle, there is one mistake , the most bearish is Cliggott with 1100 forecast . BMO's Ben Joyce is 2nd berish.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/16/strategists-not-all-are-cutting-their-forecasts/


----------



## ddkay

"WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT A man pours a flammable liquid on his body to set himself on fire outside a Piraeus bank branch in Thessaloniki in northern Greece September 16, 2011. The 55-year old man had entered the bank and asked for a renegotiation of his overdue loan payments on his home and business, according to police, which he could not pay, but was refused by the bank. "

http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/slideshow?articleId=USRTR2REV6&slide=3#a=1


----------



## peterboro31

gibor said:


> too unpredictable.... in the morning out banks were sharply up, finished sharply dowm, after hours sharply up again.. what the hell is going on
> 
> all US indexes up, european up.... only poor TSE sharply down..... who is shorting Canada? Obama?


Not just the banks butothers listed on NYSE such as Rogers were up in after hours.

Something smells real bad here; some group is playing games ; another doesn't make sense situation that is very suspisious.


----------



## Banalanal

Quick mathematical reasoning to suggesting I should be in cash right now...

There is enough negative market sentiment from respected analysts to think there is a significant chance of a large market correction. Suppose it's 15% likely of a 40% drop in the market. So if the profits I stand to make by pulling out of the market now and buying on a 40% drop means a company valued at 100 would be valued at 60 sometime in the next year and eventually recover to 100 sometime after the drop, I could stand to make a 67% profit on that trade. Therefore 15% X 67% = 11% profit outcome scenario. Now if for this year I stay in the market and we say there is a 90% chance I make an 8% return, that profit scenario is 7.2%. I think we need to calculate some sort of opportunity costs in both scenarios. First scenario could be our 11% scenario subtract 7.2% for a 4% outcome. The latter scenario would be our 7.2% subtract the 11% and we have a -4%. Now obviously these numbers are very rough and this math oversimplified but I think it somewhat demonstrates that if there is even a 10% chance of the market taking a major dip in a year that an investor is considerably better off in an all cash position.

Basically what I'm trying to say is that if there is a small chance to make a huge profit (and the risks are actually drastically less than taking the bet on a big chance on a small profit), it only seems rational to take the former option. I say the risks are less because we would be pulled out of the market and our opportunity costs are only losing out on a small gain.

There are a lot of flaws in this oversimplified thinking. But it seems interesting to me. There's always going to be people predicting a market collapse so until it happens, it's an argument to never invest. It's hard to buy at the bottom if a large correction does happen. There is a small chance the market will soar and our opportunity costs are not calculated well. And on on. But it's something to think about.


----------



## dogcom

After hours is the manipulation hours as it is easier to move the yardsticks in after hours then during the main trading day. So if someone wants out of banks why not move it up during the aftermarket and then dump it into strength at the next day open.


----------



## ddkay

The experts wouldn't say Italy is too big to bail for no good reason IMO. If countries are unable to recapitalise banks, it's worse than 2008 - there's no government intervention left. The key difference has always been the US can monetize its debt while the EZ can't without unanimous agreement. No capital, no lending... Hard to be optimistic.


----------



## ddkay

Hitting the newswires now

*** STRAUSS-KAHN SAYS GREECE CAN'T PAY BACK ITS DEBTS * BBG
*** STRAUSS-KAHN SAYS EVERYONE MUST ACCEPT LOSSES ON GREECE * BBG
*** STRAUSS-KAHN SAYS HE WON'T RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF FRANCE * BBG



> PARIS (Dow Jones)--The former International Monetary Fund's Managing Director, Dominique Strauss Kahn , Sunday said Greece is unable to pay its debt and its creditors will have to take losses on the debt they hold.
> 
> " Greece got poorer, we can say Greeks will pay on their own, but they can't," Strauss Kahn said in an interview on French TV channel TF1. "There is a loss and it must be taken by governments and banks," he said.
> 
> "Governments haven't solved the problem, they just delayed it, and the snowball grows," the former chief of the IMF added in his first comments since stepping down from his post.
> 
> Strauss Kahn made his comments as euro-zone governments increase pressure on their Greek partner to act more decisively to meet fiscal targets after talks with visiting international inspectors were abruptly suspended earlier this month as it appeared the country would overshoot its budget deficit for this year.
> 
> Analysts and rating agencies, such as Moody's , have recently said the Greek government debt is unsustainable and the probability of a haircut--a reduction of the principal owed to someone--for Greek bondholders is increasing. European Governments and Central Bank's Officials have dismissed this possibility.
> 
> Separately, Strauss Kahn said he regretted what happened in a New York hotel in May when he was charged with sexual aggression by a hotel maid. The whole incident didn't involve any violence or anything illegal, he said, though he acknowledged it was a "moral mistake". Strauss Kahn was cleared of charges in late August, after he had quit his job at the IMF.
> 
> During the Sunday interview, Strauss Kahn said he intended to run for President in the 2012 elections before the New York incident. "I missed my appointment with the French people," he said.
> 
> After what happened, he won't participate in the campaign, he said.
> 
> -By Inti Landauro, Dow Jones Newswires; +33 1 4017 1740; [email protected] dowjones.com
> 
> (END) Dow Jones Newswires
> 09-18-11 1525ET
> Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


----------



## Belguy

Greece is but a sideshow. Let it default!! The real immediate problem now is Italy. Paul Krugman, writing in today's New York Times, states that "the ECB obsession with maintaining its impeccable record on price stability at a time when Europe desperately needs a strong recovery, and modest inflation would actually be helpful, the bank has instead been tightening money, trying to head off inflation risks that exist only in its imagination and this is only adding to the problems."

He concludes that "now it's all coming to a head. We're not talking about a crisis that will unfold over the next year or two; this thing could come apart in a matter of days. And if it does, the whole world will suffer."

I'd add that they next few days or weeks should tell us if we are heading for another world depression over the European debt crisis.

In his column in today's Toronto Star, Fareed Zakaria, states that the IMF should go to China, Japan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, who collectively hold a good chunk of the $10 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, and ask for a $750 billion line of credit that the IMF would then extend to Italy and Spain but insist on closely monitoring economic reforms, granting funds only as restructuring occurs.

He concludes that "today's crisis is China's opportunity to become a responsible stakeholder in the world's economy" for both it's own best interests and to save the world from the very real potential of another Great Depression.

The time is short. The need is urgent. The next few days will be critical.

If you are a person of faith, it may be time to pray that we can escape a calamity.

If the European Union does not survive, the entire world's economy will be shaken to it's core.

It's that serious!!!


----------



## humble_pie

why are we paying any attention to a portly, out-of-shape philandering has-been who's taken to 
opining about greece.

dsk is a bureaucrat/politician who might have been, except for that fatal little Achilles' heel that wouldn't stop jumping out & wagging at women.

one prominent frenchwoman got it right. For years & years, she said, it was well-known in paris that women must never let themselves end up alone in a room with dominique strauss-kahn.

one wonders what is the story with his wife, the powerful & wealthy american journalist & heiress anne sinclair. Apparently the couple has been through these hotel-type scenes before, although never in the media & never as dramatically as may 14/11 at the sofitel in nyc. One has to wonder why anne is spending her life & her fortune propping up her pudgy partner. Was she thinking, perhaps, that it was her best chance to become the first lady of france.


----------



## ddkay

The reforms the Troika are looking for will never come. You can't climb out of a recession with austerity. Austerity > worse recession, miss budget targets > more austerity > depression, really miss budget targets > more austerity > everyone gives up, default.


----------



## ddkay

Every time EZ kicks the bucket "complex" OTC derivative balance sheets tied to the periphery are getting larger, it's not just the bondholders we have to worry about. The whole banking system could very well collapse on itself.


----------



## Belguy

It's one thing when Lehman Brothers goes under. It's an entirely different matter if Italy goes under or the Euro Zone falls apart.

Crunch time is almost here!! Scary times!!!


----------



## sags

Better to let some banks fail than some countries.

Bad news for the investors, but nobody forced them to buy Greek debt.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I hear the US Fed might try to invert the yield curve by issuing short term notes and using the proceeds to buy up long term debt, as early as this Wed's announcement.
So essentially this would be QE 3.
Or rather QE 4 if you ask me since QE 3 is already in progress since the Helicopter promised to keep interest rates at 0 for next 3 years.


----------



## sags

Is that the one they call the "Twist".......named after Chubby Checker?

It's bad when they have to go back to one hit 1960's crooners for ideas.

What were the lyrics again..........

"My daddy is sleepin' and mama ain't around 
Yeah daddy is sleepin' and mama ain't around 
We're gonna twisty twisty twisty 
'Til we turn the house down"


----------



## HaroldCrump

sags said:


> Is that the one they call the "Twist".......named after Chubby Checker?


Yeah I heard them call it that on the news, but didn't know the reference.
All I know is that an inverted yield curve is a stupid, dangerous thing, esp. when created deliberately.


----------



## Larry6417

I read an interesting criticism of operation "twist" from Bill Gross on John Mauldin's site. Lowering the spread between short and long term debt hurts profitability of financial institutions that buy short term debts and use the money to lend longer term (think something like ABCP). Therefore, operation "twist" could actually lower credit available to companies and cause/ deepen an economic downturn.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Larry6417 said:


> Lowering the spread between short and long term debt hurts profitability of financial institutions that buy short term debts and use the money to lend longer term (think something like ABCP).


Isn't that what AGNC and that other one (NLY?) doing as well?
Wonder what happens to their business model if this gets implemented.


> Therefore, operation "twist" could actually lower credit available to companies and cause/ deepen an economic downturn.


Negative long term interest rates (because that is what this will do, give or take) is bad for a whole variety of fundamental economic reasons.
I think they are playing with fire.


----------



## Larry6417

It's become obvious to everyone except politicians and economists that the U.S. economy is in need of serious structural reform. While the (official) unemployment rate hovers around 10%, millions of jobs go unfilled in the U.S. due to lack of skilled labour. Billions spent retraining Americans for actual jobs instead of billions for bailouts would make economic sense. However, politicians and the Fed have fallen prey to the belief that they have to do "something," even if that something is ineffective, or even potentially harmful.


----------



## Belguy

Harry Dent, author of 'The Great Crash Ahead' was on the Lang and O'leary Exchange tonight. He is predicting that the Dow will fall to around 3000 in the next couple of years and suggests avoiding equities altogether from early 2012 until late 2013. He feels that there might be one more opportune time to exit equities when they rally near the end of the year, but not to their previous highs. After that, watch out below!!!

Any thoughts? What are you planning to do?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Belguy said:


> Any thoughts?


Yeah, when he was asked by Kevin - _what should a grandmother invest in_, his answer was a rental investment property.
Wouldn't you like to have this guy as your investment advisor, eh?


----------



## KaeJS

HaroldCrump said:


> Yeah, when he was asked by Kevin - _what should a grandmother invest in_, his answer was a rental investment property.
> Wouldn't you like to have this guy as your investment advisor, eh?


LOL!

Yeah. And 20 year olds should invest in T-Bills.


----------



## peterboro31

Belguy said:


> Harry Dent, author of 'The Great Crash Ahead' was on the Lang and O'leary Exchange tonight. He is predicting that the Dow will fall to around 3000 in the next couple of years and suggests avoiding equities altogether from early 2012 until late 2013. He feels that there might be one more opportune time to exit equities when they rally near the end of the year, but not to their previous highs. After that, watch out below!!!
> 
> Any thoughts? What are you planning to do?



Be careful Belguy; a satelite is expected to break up this weekend and might penetrate earth. Buy, hold and swear a lot.


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## Belguy

When real estate crashes, along with everything else, many homeowners, with mortgages worth more than their homes, will just walk away from them and be looking to rent somewhere. Hence the recommendation that one of the few safe investment havens left is rental properties. Even gold will crash along with everything else back to around $600 an ounce which is it's intrinsic (non speculative) value.

And yes, I am worried about being hit by that falling satellite, which is as big as a bus, but more afraid of being hit by lighting for which the odds are far better.


----------



## KaeJS

I'm afraid if people keep talking like this, Gold really _will_ hit $600/ounce and I will be out of a lot of money.

I may even sell my Gold tomorrow. Its dropping even when equities are dropping.


----------



## Belguy

Greece is on the precipice and Italy and Spain will follow:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rope-braces-for-greek-default/article2170959/

The only possible solution to avoid the E.U. falling apart is for the emerging markets countries to provide emergency funding.

Aside from that, God himself will not be able to resolve this mess!

And now, I am going to bed. Pleasant dreams!!!


----------



## sags

The good news is that if the worst happens, we all end up in the same situation.........happy for a place to lay down our head and something to eat.

After all those countless "end of the world" movies involving invading aliens, meteor strikes, rampant viruses, zombies, and even vegetation gone mad.......who would have thought it would happen because of .........bankers?

Meh................wouldn't even make a good movie.


----------



## Argonaut

$600 gold.. impossible. For the first time in a long time, central banks are now net buyers. China's buying interest represents a permanent floor in the price of gold.

Note how Spain gave away its gold reserves to Russia to pay for war debts in the 30's. Years and years of acquisition wasted. How is that deal looking now? Once the gold is gone, you are left with NOTHING.

Gold > Debt, forever and ever and ever.


----------



## Abha

Well looks like another violent move down tomorrow. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...el-to-a-by-s-p-as-government-debt-mounts.html

The fear mongering as a result of this is going to take us lower tomorrow but I still think we'll get into rally mode soon thereafter.


----------



## ddkay

Italy has the world's 4th largest gold reserves. Going to get ugly for goldbugs if they ever dump those. In the short-term anyway. I still think it's a good transition asset a few decades out. The reason I'm bearish is because it's had a 10 year run. Every bull market has a correction. Remember the 1987-1990 correction in equities?

As for the present, I think we're in for at least 2-3 days of big moves.


----------



## el oro

Argo, nothing is impossible. Don't get married to an asset class or point of view, imo.

Abha, what do you foresee that will cause a rally in equities near you in the short-term? The only bullish event coming up would be comments from the big meeting on Wednesday. Operation Twist as mentioned previously is already baked in and expected. Bernanke would have to come up with much more than that, a big suprise, in order to cause a sustained rally. 

Everything else feels bearish. There are the Europe issues. Obama's Buffet-rule could cause a sell-off (unlikely to pass congress though) as it just sounds like taxing long-term cap gains like income. 

Most importantly, for me, is the bearish technical picture. Again, the bears are in full control while markets remain below the Aug. 31 high. I'm neutral above there and bearish below. This is looking at the correlated markets such as TSX, SnP, DOW, Oil, Copper. I know technical analysis is unpopular on this forum but this current pattern is just such an obvious red warning flag slapping me in the face right now. It is telling me upside is limited, barring big market intervention, and downside is significant when looking at the timeframe of the next several weeks to a few months.


----------



## Argonaut

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> Argo, nothing is impossible. Don't get married to an asset class or point of view, imo.


Too late, I'm already married to gold and she has a permanent hold on 25% of my assets. Although she doesn't cook often and has no income of her own, she looks pretty and that's all that counts.


----------



## Abha

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> Abha, what do you foresee that will cause a rally in equities near you in the short-term?


I don't normally like to put research reports out there but here's a really great read for those of you who are interested in the macro picture.

It's by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/15520254/macro.pdf


----------



## Homerhomer

Abha said:


> Well looks like another violent move down tomorrow.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...el-to-a-by-s-p-as-government-debt-mounts.html
> 
> The fear mongering as a result of this is going to take us lower tomorrow .


Great call so far, other than Nikkei all major indices are up including North American futures.


----------



## Homerhomer

Argonaut said:


> $600 gold.. impossible. .


Short term won't happen, beyond that anything is possible.


----------



## dogcom

US dollar goes up and everything else gold included drops in mass liquidation if this bear market really gets going. After the death and destruction you can once again back up the truck to gold producing stocks as a huge rally awaits.

The US dollar will soar because it is big enough to handle all the liquidated money coming out of just about everything.


----------



## fatcat

> Italy has the world's 4th largest gold reserves. Going to get ugly for goldbugs if they ever dump those. In the short-term anyway. I still think it's a good transition asset a few decades out. The reason I'm bearish is because it's had a 10 year run. Every bull market has a correction. Remember the 1987-1990 correction in equities?
> 
> As for the present, I think we're in for at least 2-3 days of big moves.


interesting take on whether the gold bull is running out of gas .. short answer ... not necessarily 

*Could Gold Rise by 220%?*

In the past, I've made various comparisons to analyze the current gold bull market (e.g. vs NASDAQ bubble, vs S&P 500). By numerous measures, the current gold bull has not yet matched the bubbly peak we've seen during other bull markets.

Perhaps the most in-our-face comparison is gold vs. gold. As far as gold bubbles go, today's investors ain't seen nothin' yet.

The chart below compares the current gold bull market (2001-present) with that of the 1970s (ending with the 1980 peak). To calculate the cumulative appreciation, the data compares the lowest low with the highest high within each bull market.

*It is clear that the last gold bull market far surpassed that of today. In fact, to reach comparable appreciation levels, today's gold price would have to hit $6200/oz!* That's more than 220% higher than the recent peak. ......(the rest is at seekingalpha.com ... http://seekingalpha.com/article/294599-could-gold-rise-by-220?source=kizur


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Harry Dent, author of 'The Great Crash Ahead' was on the Lang and O'leary Exchange tonight. He is predicting that the Dow will fall to around 3000 in the next couple of years and suggests avoiding equities altogether from early 2012 until late 2013. .......
> Any thoughts? What are you planning to do?


from 15000 to 3000?  ... do you beleive in this prediction? IMHO this can happened only in World War III starts....


with such decline, AT&T will be trading about $7.4 with 23% dividends lol


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Fortunately for us, Harry Dent has a terrible record when it comes to forecasting. 

I got a chuckle out of rereading my review of his last book. Last I checked, 2009 was a banner year for stocks not the DOW 3800 that Dent was predicting in late 2008. Funnily, the description for the upcoming book says the previous book correctly predicted the unfolding economic scenario! It's hard to take this stuff seriously.

http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/book-review-the-great-depression-ahead/


----------



## ddkay

In economic collapse dude's defense, the market is a moving target. It's normal to consistently revise up/down estimates. Anyone who doesn't do that and give one scenario forecasts are kidding themselves. We may as well had DOW 3800, if it weren't for coordinated government intervention in 1991, in 2001, then again 2008. They say good things happen in threes. Have governments used all their ammo for propping up the market yet? That's what remains to be seen...


----------



## fatcat

> In economic collapse dude's defense, the market is a moving target. It's normal to consistently revise up/down estimates. Anyone who doesn't do that and give one scenario forecasts are kidding themselves. We may as well had DOW 3800, if it weren't for coordinated government intervention in 1991, in 2001, then again 2008. They say good things happen in threes. Have governments used all their ammo for propping up the market yet? That's what remains to be seen...


i read your post and thought "this a good reason for governments to stay out of markets" ... because clearly it isn't working ... it requires repeated bailouts and the debt is piling up ... maybe we need a 3800 dow to re-build system that doesn't require bureaucrats flying all over the world and staying in $3000 hotel rooms at our expense ... a 3800 dow wouldn't be good for me but what about our kids and grandkids ?


----------



## Belguy

There is virtually no positive economic news out there anywhere to cause these markets to turn around.

This time, it may very well be different!!

http://www.thestar.com/business/rec...why-this-economic-downturn-feels-so-different

And, unbelievably, large European banks may start to fail! How bad could this get?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ook-chilled-by-client-jitters/article2173686/

Pleasant dreams!!


----------



## dogcom

You can't short or go long in this market. It could be that all that money building on the sidelines starts to go back in and the market builds up again in all this doom and gloom climate so it is very hard to be short the market. Then again the bond markets have priced in the collapse of Greece which will happen sooner or a little bit later so you can't go long. 

I think being half cash and the rest split between bonds, dividend stocks and gold would probably be a good idea at this in time.


----------



## zylon

*Pleasant dreams, indeed!*

I can't help myself ... you made me do it. You want doom and gloom? Alrighty then ... consider yourself warned.

_what you think about, you bring about;
what you focus on, grows._ ~new age teaching

or as a great teacher said:
_For as a man thinketh in his heart, so is he._



> We think we’re onto a big story. A BIG story.
> 
> This correction is aiming high…it’s going to take down the entire capital structure of the world’s developed economies.
> 
> Stocks…bonds…real estate — watch out…they’re all going down.
> 
> The dollar…the pound…the euro — look out below!
> 
> But that’s not all. No, if we’re right, this is bigger, much bigger than just a market correction.
> 
> It’s an economic correction…a monetary correction…and a political correction.
> 
> Read more: *When Economic Growth is a Thing of the Past *http://dailyreckoning.com/when-economic-growth-is-a-thing-of-the-past/#ixzz1YY8cXgi6


There's lots more where that came from.

________________
Try not to snore, eh?


----------



## KaeJS

Maybe I'm a lone wolf on this one, but I don't believe all that mumbo jumbo, zylon.

I don't see a crash any worse than 2008. Companies are still making money, they are not insolvent. Suncor is not magically going to become $5/share overnight.


----------



## zylon

me neither

I posted that for the benefit of those who insist on wallowing.


----------



## ddkay

Even mainstream media opinion columnists have called this for what it is, an institutional crisis, a capitalism crisis: The ailing euro is part of a wider crisis. Our capitalist system is near meltdown.



> Will Hutton
> The Observer, Sunday 18 September 2011
> 
> Eighty years ago, faced with today's economic events, nobody would have been in any doubt: we would obviously be living through a crisis in capitalism. Instead, there is a collective unwillingness to call a spade a spade. This is variously a crisis of the European Union, a crisis of the euro, a debt crisis or a crisis of political will. It is all those things, but they are subplots of a much bigger story: the way capitalism has been conceived and practised for the last 30 years has hit the buffers. Unless and until that is recognised, western economies will be locked in stagnation which could even transmute into a major economic disaster.
> 
> Simply put, the world has trillions upon trillions of excessive private debt financed by too many different currencies whose risk is allegedly mitigated by even more trillions of financial bets which in aggregate do not minimise the systemic risk one iota. This entire financial edifice, underwritten by tiny amounts of capital, has been created over three decades backed by the theory that markets do not make mistakes. Capitalism is best conceived and practised, runs the theory, by hunter-gatherer bankers and entrepreneurs owing no allegiance to the state or society.
> 
> This is nonsense. Business and the state co-generate wealth in a system of complex mutual dependence. Markets are beset by mood swings and uncertainty which, if not offset by government action, lead to violent oscillations. Capitalism without responsibility or proportionality degrades into racketeering and exploitation. The prospect of limitless pay is an open invitation to bad, or even criminal, behaviour. Good capitalism cannot happen without referees to blow the whistle or robust frameworks in which markets can function; neither is reliably created by capitalism itself, hence the role of democratic government. Yet the world is trying to solve the legacy of the last 30 years as if none of this were true and, instead, that the practice and theories that created the mess are still valid.
> 
> US treasury secretary Tim Geithner, joining EU finance ministers in Poland as again they pondered how best to end the ongoing euro crisis, was at least recognising today's interdependencies between countries when he urged his fellow ministers to stop bickering because the markets were terrified by the threat of a catastrophic event – with all the risk that posed the US.
> 
> George Osborne was also right to declare that a strong euro was in Britain's interests. But worrying about how a failed euro might impact on yourself is old speak. What the markets need to hear is that western politicians – whether in the eurozone or not – see the euro as part of the potential solution to capitalism's current crisis, not its cause, and that they are prepared to do all in their power to support the reforms necessary to make the euro survive and take other measures vital to make the world financial system functional again. Geithner and Osborne must put some money where their mouths are.
> 
> The euro's critics, endlessly emphasising that it is a monetary straitjacket and that the best reform now would be its break-up, miss the point. It was not this so-called straitjacket that is the cause of today's euro crisis. It is the interaction of the euro system with a once-in-a-century crisis of capitalism that its designers and supporters, like its critics, never anticipated. Yes, what the crisis has exposed is that the eurozone needed a ¤1trillion-plus fund to recapitalise bust banks and underwrite sovereign debt write-downs; this was not written into the original treaty. And that the investment and retail banking arms of the EU's universal banks need to be ringfenced or formally separated, as Sir John Vickers's banking commission proposes for Britain –if they are to be remotely safe. But neither notion was a battle cry of the eurosceptics over the last 10 years.
> 
> In fact, the existence of the euro has, until now, been a bulwark against disaster. Suppose it had not been created and that the financial crisis in 2008 had broken over a Europe with multiple floating exchange rates and no European central bank – the eurosceptic utopia. The Irish, Portuguese, Greek, Spanish, Italian and French banking systems would have stood alone and they would have collapsed in a domino effect, interacting with the mega-crisis in Britain and the US. Even some German banks would not have been immune. There would have been a 1930s-scale slump, the break up of the EU and a rise in beggar-my-neighbour devaluations and trade protection.
> 
> We have not yet escaped that prospect. If the euro breaks up, the cascade of subsequent bank failures and debt write-downs will be no less threatening and Britain will be pulled into the vortex. The EU has created a "financial stabilisation facility" to try to hold the line. But there is no urgency in launching it; it is still not a proper fund but, rather, a stop-gap provider of borrowing facilities and it is too small. As bad, the German and French governments are wedded to collective European austerity; they want to impose long-term balanced budgets not only on themselves but chilling austerity on the unfortunate states which have to borrow to support their banks and bond markets.
> 
> An entire continent is to be blighted by lack of demand in the midst of a capitalist crisis, compounded by Britain's scorched earth, deficit-reduction plans. Already, many European banks are technically insolvent, recognised by Christine Lagarde, the IMF's new managing director, if not by the banks themselves.
> 
> Last week, the Bank of England joined the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss central bank in promising Europe's banks vital liquidity in dollars, easing the crisis for a while. Time has been bought; we are pitching in to save ourselves. But the outside world needs to go much further. Europe's stabilisation facility must become a fund with a capacity to lend and intervene to see off speculators: Britain, the US, Switzerland and Japan, along with China and oil-rich Arab states, need to contribute alongside Germany.
> 
> In return for coming to the relief of the German taxpayer, we should demand two key concessions: one, that Europe sets about ringfencing its universal banks' investment banking operations to make them less vulnerable; and second, that no international cash is forthcoming unless the EU commits to a formal plan for growth in which its stronger countries, notably Germany, promise to stimulate their economies. As part of the package, Britain should agree to defer its own deficit- reduction plans and to issue bonds denominated in euros to contribute to the new euro fund.
> 
> We are living through the most dangerous confluence of economic circumstances in modern times. Trying to pretend the interdependencies do not exist or that the collapse of the euro is the answer can only make matters worse. It is a straight choice: we do all we can to help each other or risk going down in what could be the worst economic contraction for a century.
> 
> © 2011 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.


----------



## KaeJS

zylon said:


> me neither
> 
> I posted that for the benefit of those who insist on wallowing.


The most upsetting part is I don't believe there will be a huge crash, and I'm the one that WANTS a huge crash!! (Sorry Belguy )


----------



## gibor365

fatcat said:


> i read your post and thought "this a good reason for governments to stay out of markets" ... because clearly it isn't working ... it requires repeated bailouts and the debt is piling up ... maybe we need a 3800 dow to re-build system that doesn't require bureaucrats flying all over the world and staying in $3000 hotel rooms at our expense ... a 3800 dow wouldn't be good for me but what about our kids and grandkids ?


you're kidding yourself... if it will be 3800 - you will have nothing to re-build. 3800 will be if entire world financial system collapse, some kinds of wars will start, huge crime rate, huge unemployment, goverment won't be able to pay wellfare, paper money will cost nothing (so your Cash won't helo you) and so on. Goverments will do everything to prevent it....

Stockmarket it's not a specific casino, if it collapse - everyone will feel it very strong regardless if you're investing directly or not


----------



## HaroldCrump

Have you considered the possibility that in _real_ terms, DOW may already be worth 3,800?
The purchasing power of the the USD (and most world currencies) has been eroding steadily for at least the last 30 years.
So measured in terms of real goods and services, such as food, clothing, housing, etc. perhaps the DOW is worth 3,800 only.

I am sure there are indices or measures out there that can track this, but just for simplicity, if we use gold to measure the value of the DOW in USD terms, it is off the chart.










Again, using gold as the weight for the DOW:


----------



## gibor365

HaroldCrump said:


> Have you considered the possibility that in _real_ terms, DOW may already be worth 3,800?
> The purchasing power of the the USD (and most world currencies) has been eroding steadily for at least the last 30 years.
> So measured in terms of real goods and services, such as food, clothing, housing, etc. perhaps the DOW is worth 3,800 only.


Do you know how many cents "in real terms" worth bottle of vodka


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

HaroldCrump said:


> I am sure there are indices or measures out there that can track this, but just for simplicity, if we use gold to measure the value of the DOW in USD terms, it is off the chart.


Yes there is. It is called real rate of return. The S&P 500 has returned 6.6% _after adjusting for inflation_ over the past 30 years. The charts like the one below are meaningless because they don't take _total returns_ (i.e they ignore dividends) into consideration. 

The price of gold fluctuates, so does the DOW. Anytime you measure one in terms of the other, you are going to get fluctuations. I'm not sure these measurements have any meaning.


----------



## HaroldCrump

CanadianCapitalist said:


> Yes there is. It is called real rate of return. The S&P 500 has returned 6.6% _after adjusting for inflation_ over the past 30 years.


But that is based on the reported numbers of CPI inflation.
Then we get into the discussion of whether CPI is a true measure of inflation, or not.

Your point about dividends being ignored in those charts is indeed valid.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

HaroldCrump said:


> Then we get into the discussion of whether CPI is a true measure of inflation, or not.


Fair point on whether CPI is a true measure of inflation. But it's clear that gold is definitely not the true measure of inflation. Not even close. We could argue whether inflation was 2% or 3% or even 4% in the past 10 years. But gold has risen 340% (in C$ terms) over that time frame. Prices of goods and services are nowhere near that level of increase.


----------



## ddkay

Bank of America downgraded by Moody's to Baa1/P-2 from A2/P-1. Next significant price support under $6.67 is $5.10.

"It is also more likely now than during the financial crisis to allow a large bank to fail should it become financially troubled, as the risks of contagion become less acute. Moody's is therefore lowering the amount of support it incorporates into Bank of America's ratings to levels reflected prior to the crisis."


----------



## Argonaut

The market doesn't seem to like Operation Twist, as always it was baked into the price and the news is sold. Full blown crash possible, no real cause for good news ahead. Likely scenario, a retest of 1120 on the S&P 500.


----------



## el oro

Now that the Fed announcement is out of the way (with no huge surprise), short sellers will now re-enter. Again, bears in full control while under Aug. 31 high, neutral above. Beware of falling knives until sub 1000 SnP, sub 10500 TSX if this downleg materializes in the next few days and weeks.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Huh...so the Helicopter comes through after all.
The insanity continues to get worse...


----------



## Argonaut

I'm mad at myself for not being on top of this with puts. I was looking at it in the last hour or so but the premiums are really, really expensive. Oh well, at least half my cash is in USD.


----------



## Jungle

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> Now that the Fed announcement is out of the way (with no huge surprise), short sellers will now re-enter. Again, bears in full control while under Aug. 31 high, neutral above. Beware of falling knives until sub 1000 SnP, sub 10500 TSX if this downleg materializes in the next few days and weeks.


Thank you for the insight, but just curious where you get the numbers form. Do you do TA?


----------



## ddkay

By Friday the SP500 can be 100 pts lower. Looking at retesting the August 8 ETH 1077 low. Either way, flash crash of some sort going to happen in the next 2 days.


----------



## HaroldCrump

CanadianCapitalist said:


> Fair point on whether CPI is a true measure of inflation. But it's clear that gold is definitely not the true measure of inflation. Not even close. We could argue whether inflation was 2% or 3% or even 4% in the past 10 years. But gold has risen 340% (in C$ terms) over that time frame. Prices of goods and services are nowhere near that level of increase.


True, prices have not risen 340% in 10 years (thankfully for all of us).
However, it is not fair to compare to gold prices simply for last 10 years since it has been a great bull run for gold.

My point was that a nominal value of an index is meaningless unless we can also measure what that value buys, in terms of final goods and services.
If 1 share of the DOW when it was 3,800 could buy a premiem rib eye steak and a bottle of '73 Bollinger and 1 share of the DOW can still buy the same steak and the same Bollinger (well, maybe not the '73 but let's say the '96) then we are saying the DOW measured in final goods and services is still at the 3,800 level.
Ideally the 1 share of DOW should be able to buy more now.

What we need is a non substituted version of the PCE index, baselined to say roughly 1995 when the DOW was last near 3,800.


----------



## Belguy

Was I the only one who got smoked in the markets today?

Did I hear correctly that Lloyds have pulled all of their money out of European banks following the lead of Seimans?

What will happen if European banks start to fail? This could be dire for the entire world!

What may happen in the days ahead is "too dangerous to contemplate".--George Soros

Today, the Fed indicated that they see "significant downside risk to the economy" going forward. What do they mean by "significant"?

Anyway, the markets were unimpressed by what they heard.

This kind of market volatility could be the norm for the next three to five years until the economy starts to improve again and we put this credit crisis behind us.

Sleep tight and don't let the bedbugs bite!!


----------



## HaroldCrump

Belguy said:


> Did I hear correctly that Lloyds have pulled all of their money out of European banks following the lead of Seimans?


Yes, you heard right.
The pot calling the kettle black, is it?
Llyods should invest more time worrying about their own balance sheet.


----------



## ddkay

Scary times for pensionholders

http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USTRE78K6SY20110921



> *Analysis: Fed's twist moves hurts company pension plans*
> 4:58pm EDT
> By Aaron Pressman
> 
> BOSTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's 'Operation Twist' to bring down bond yields and stimulate the economy is likely to cause pain for the nation's largest pension funds, already struggling with funding shortfalls from the recent stock market decline.
> 
> Hit both by falling stock prices and falling bond yields, the 100 largest pension plans of public U.S. companies have assets covering only 79 percent of their liabilities as of the end of August, down from 86 percent at the end of 2010, according to consulting firm Milliman Inc.
> 
> Already approaching its all-time low of 70.1 percent in August, 2010, the funding ratio could fall below 60 percent within two years if equities stagnate and rates decline further, Milliman projected.
> 
> "I've said rates were at historic lows for three years now and they keep going lower," John Ehrhardt, a principal in the firm's New York office, said.
> 
> Corporate pensions were well funded back in 2007 before the financial crisis hit, but even though the stock market has recouped most of its losses, falling bond yields have prevented the funds from regaining their solid footing.
> 
> "The bond market tends to be the forgotten side of the equation," David Kelly, a principal at consulting firm Mercer in Chicago, said. "The interest rate risk turns out to be at least as large a risk factor as equity risk for pensions."
> 
> The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced its latest effort to lower yields and kick start the economy through $400 billion of bond purchases.
> 
> That could drive down the yields on AA-rated corporate bonds and related benchmarks used by the pension funds to calculate their liabilities.
> 
> Most private U.S. defined benefit plans, which oversee about $2 trillion, are hurt when long-term yields decline because of the way the plans must value future payouts they will make to retirees in coming decades.
> 
> The total doesn't include the more popular defined contribution plans, like 401(K)'s, which contain almost $5 trillion and put the onus on workers to manage their own finances. Those plans have been hit by falling markets, too, but do not face the same accounting challenge.
> 
> Lower rates mean the future benefits have a higher present value, ballooning the defined benefit funds' liabilities. Pension consultants estimate a 1.0 percent drop in rates increases liabilities by 10 percent to 15 percent.
> Well-managed pensions are supposed to match the current worth of their assets and liabilities. In essence, a present value calculation estimates how much it would cost to borrow the total future liabilities right now and deducts the cost of the interest.
> 
> Falling rates also increase the value of any bonds the funds may own but most pension portfolios tilt more toward equities and away from fixed income assets. And bonds they do own tend to be in shorter maturities, which appreciate less when rates fall.
> 
> "Unfortunately, the vast majority of pension funds continue to pursue aggressively mis-matched strategies," said Bradley Belt, senior managing director at the Milken Institute and the former head of the U.S. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.
> 
> If the funds' assets fall short, companies that sponsor the plans for their workers will have to increase their annual contributions by tens of billions of dollars over the next few years, Belt said. And if the companies ultimately fall short, the PBGC's government insurance would be on the hook.
> 
> Laurence Fink, chief executive of money manager BlackRock, called the pension situation and similar underfunding of individual retirement accounts "probably the largest crisis that the U.S. is going to face." Speaking at a conference in New York on September 12, Fink said low rates were having a "dramatic impact" in harming pension funds.
> 
> BlackRock, which oversees $3.7 trillion for pension funds and other investors, is urging many of its corporate pension plan clients to match assets and liabilities more closely, in part by shifting money from equities to bonds.
> 
> But with the funding ratios and bond rates so low, the matching programs should be phased in over several years, Andy Hunt, managing director at BlackRock in New York, said. "Pension plans need to learn the lessons of the past few years and set themselves on the right course for the future," Hunt said.
> 
> Further damage from lower rates is likely despite the fact that some closely watched rates, like the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, are already at historically low levels.
> 
> "Rates can still drop further," Leonard Grimando, director of corporate ratings at Standard & Poor's in New York, warned, noting that pension fund benchmarks are much higher than the 1.9 percent 10-year Treasury yield.
> 
> On average, companies rated by S&P used a discount rate of 5.34 percent in 2010, down from 5.85 percent in 2009.
> 
> "The current rate would now be slightly below 5 percent," Grimando said


----------



## HaroldCrump

Of course it is bad for pension funds.
As I said on the other thread yesterday when this first came up, inverted yields are bad for a variety of reasons.
This is insanity x 100.
When is the Helicopter going to get it? 
Money is _not_ going to go into equities by artificially depressing long term bond yields.
When you try to inflate one bubble, it doesn't - the extra cash simply finds another bubble to inflate.
They tried that with the housing market already over 2 years ago.

I would be interested to know who will be the buyers for this $400B of short term notes that they plan to issue?
If these are mostly foreign parties, the cash will invariably make its way back into the US economy, cause more inflation, and find some other asset bubble.

These clowns should be trying to _remove_ liquidity, not add.


----------



## ddkay

Ben prints money and burns it while dropping it from his helicopter. Where did QE1 and QE2 go? It never made it to the ground except for a few folks that knew exactly where the remains were going to fall.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I suspect a lot of that went abroad (China, mostly) - who else has that much dough to buy up > $1.3T?
And once there, it creates asset bubbles among the middle and upper middle classes.
Which, in turn, conveniently makes it way back across the deep blue seas into north america in the form of "hard" asset purchases, namely commodities, real estate, etc.
Who do you think is buying the crazy Vancouver real estate?
Who is buying up our mining, oil and forestry resources?
And where did that money originally come from.


----------



## KaeJS

Sorry, I must be missing something.

Can someone fill me in on why he is being called "Helicopter"?


----------



## Belguy

I think that the Fed wants to be seen as at least doing SOMETHING even if it is precisely the wrong thing because, in truth, there is precious little that they CAN do.

Public pension plans are not the only things suffering. My own, personal private pension plan is dropping like a rock as well!!

Oh well, there go my dreams for a comfortable, worry free retirement but I realize that I am far from alone.

I can't say that I wasn't warned that, as you approach retirement, you should put a high percentage of your portfolio in fixed income investments.

However, greed is a common human frailty.


----------



## ddkay

@KaeJS, it's Ben's nickname for following Milton Friedman's school of thought

quick except from Wiki:


> Friedman was the main proponent of the monetarist school of economics. He maintained that there is a close and stable association between price inflation and the money supply, mainly that price inflation should be regulated with monetary deflation and price deflation with monetary inflation. He famously quipped that price deflation can be fought by "dropping money out of a helicopter.""[31]





> Bernanke is particularly interested in the economic and political causes of the Great Depression, on which he has published numerous academic journal articles. Before Bernanke's work, the dominant monetarist theory of the Great Depression was Milton Friedman's view that it had been largely caused by the Federal Reserve's having reduced the money supply. In a speech on Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday (November 8, 2002), Bernanke said, "Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna [Schwartz, Friedman's coauthor]: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again."[45] Bernanke has cited Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in his decision to lower interest rates to zero.[46]


----------



## Belguy

ddkay, just wondering--maybe it is none of my business but do you spend ALL of your waking hours on this forum????

I am just going by your instant responses pretty much all day and night!!!


----------



## KaeJS

Thanks, ddkay.


----------



## ddkay

I do spend a little too much time here lately, but I'm going to pin that on the extraordinary things happening lol. This community and the internet in general have helped me gain enormous savvy in all my hobbies and interests. Sometimes I get too into "it". I haven't officially been diagnosed but I may also have OCPD. :\


----------



## KaeJS

I've been on since 11am, and its now 10:30 pm where I am.

I read, watch tv, make food, play video games, text or talk on the phone while I use the forum, but I like to think of it as a Frugal thing to do.

The forum is free.


----------



## HaroldCrump

ddkay,

That article is bunkum.
IMHO, Helicoper is highjacking and seriously mis-representing the purpose and principles behind Friedman.
He is doing the exact opposite of what Friedman would have wanted.

In times like these, he should be removing monetary stimulus and not adding.

Friedman was completely against this kind of indiscriminate abuse of monetary policy.
We should also keep in mind that back during Friedman's days, the purpose of the Federal Reserve was to _regulate_ money supply - increasing and decreasing it as needed, but within the limits of the gold standard, which was in force during most of that period except the First War.
On the contrary, what Greenspan (another "expert" on the Great Depression) and his worthy successor - The Helicopter - have been doing is only adding monetary stimulus in billions and trillions.

It is having precisely the effect that it is supposed to have, but not what he intends i.e. it is inflating the money supply (note the US stopped reporting M3 numbers several years ago), expanding credit, and increasing the velocity of money.

What he has essentially done is mis-interpreted (and mis-represented) Friedman's supply side economics, conveniently married it with Krugman style fiscal insanity, and come up with the current set of policies, which are being unleashed upon the world with disastrous effects.


----------



## Larry6417

I've recently taken positions in HXD (double inverse S&P/TSX60) ETF, so keep the bad news coming!


----------



## HaroldCrump

Since sleep evades me tonight, following is my tribute to The Helicopter, on this historic day when The Twist was unleashed.

The setting is a Grade II public school class, a couple of years from now.

_Banker Ben had five green bubbles hanging on his bank
He plucked the *dotcom* bubble and blew it greedily
Leaving four green bubbles hanging on his bank

Banker Ben had four green bubbles hanging on his bank
He plucked the *real estate* bubble and blew it greedily
Leaving three green bubbles hanging on his bank

Banker Ben had three green bubbles hanging on his bank
He plucked the *gold* bubble and blew it greedily
Leaving two green bubbles hanging on his bank

Banker Ben had two green bubbles hanging on his bank
He plucked the *bond* bubble and blew it greedily
Leaving one green bubble hanging on his bank

Banker Ben had one green bubble hanging on his bank
He plucked the *USD* bubble and blew it greedily
Leaving no green bubbles hanging on his bank

Banker Ben had no green bubbles hanging on his bank_

One hand at the back of the class goes up
_Please Miss, so what is Banker Ben doing these days?_

*He is working on Hu Jin Tao's paddy field in Nanjing for 300 Y a day*.


----------



## el oro

@Jungle: Yes.


----------



## ddkay

Larry6417 said:


> I've recently taken positions in HXD (double inverse S&P/TSX60) ETF, so keep the bad news coming!


Aren't those only meant to be traded daily? I once read if you have one up day you get like quadruple losses, the only way holding overnight works in your favour is if the market consistently closes on red. If you bought today you'll probably wake up happy tomorrow though. I didn't even notice the market crashing, it all happened in the last hour and I was preoccupied with something. Good timing on your part I guess.

@HaroldCrump that's fantastic lol. I'm going to print out a copy and store it somewhere in case the Internet shuts down, civilization is on the verge of collapse etc.


----------



## el oro

No ddkay, the losses aren't that bad. If you bought the 2x ETF of the TSX at the '09 bottom, you'd be outperforming the TSX by ~35% over the same time period despite many down weeks. It does fall well short of the 2x performance as there is decay when holding beyond a day.


----------



## ddkay

Thanks for clearing that up 1600. That makes me a bit more comfortable using the product in the future.

It's a shame most of the action has been happening in ETH futures after US close, 99% of retail investors don't have access, so far the ES is down 1.5% in a waterfall patern decline. Great day for Larry, bulls are going to cry when they wake up. Meanwhile CAD/USD is down 3.97% on the week, 1.30% of that move was just in the last 24 hours. We're definitely testing the August 8th low, we could even reach it before Friday, which implies we'll probably slice through it... party officially over. Maybe we'll see QE3 by Christmas and the same thoughtless process will repeat with the central bank's best friends funneling money into assets that can be quickly bought/sold instead of the real economy...

Argo was talking about the premiums on puts lately. I read a few days ago lots of MMs were marking up premiums to leave a lot of room for violent price swings. You have to look deeper in the market for options where volatility is underpriced. I don't know where that would be right now. The SPYs probably don't have any so to buy put protection now you are really paying through the nose for it.


----------



## Jungle

S&P futures down 1.7% at 6:15am this morning. 

DDKAY

I can see the Aug 8 lows coming real fast. 
Starting to look at US blue chips.

WOW now down 2.6% at 744am. 

Good morning investors! Rude awakening!


----------



## ddkay

SP500 open at -2.75%. There's a clip on TV about bulls being hospitalized this morning after heart attacks... This is conviction selling/capitulation, moves down so quickly most people can't catch it. Fear vs greed. Fear always wins.


----------



## KaeJS

Holy crap!

Look at Gold! Down $50...


----------



## FrugalTrader

Looks like we're going to retest Aug 2011 lows..


----------



## ddkay

I wish I'd bought one of these yesterday, but I'm equally thankful to be in cash:


----------



## avrex

I'm not sure, but I'm assuming that we've reached a new high for VIX (i.e. a new low for XIV)


----------



## dogcom

It looks like the year end clearance sale is now on. Everything must go at unbeatable prices and all old stock must be cleared out. With gold now following this is where we are heading and October is just around the corner.


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## ddkay

As long as gold follows price movements in equities up and down the selling is going to get worse. There needs to be a divergence, until that happens I'm bearish on PMs. As the economy worsens with wealth destruction and lending slowing down (credit is money) a US dollar shortage will continue, the US dollar will strengthen and PMs will be treated as assets used to generate cash.


----------



## Homerhomer

FrugalTrader said:


> Looks like we're going to retest Aug 2011 lows..


Finally feds admitted to what was evident, we are heading lower, and I think much lower.

My biggest fear is Japan like stock market constantly declining for the last 20 years.


----------



## ddkay

No capital, no lending... something has to break the self propagating cycle

SEP 22, 2011 11:08 EDT

The market for U.S. commercial paper, a key source of short-term funding for firms, is signaling fresh distrust of the banking sector. Investors continue to favor commercial paper issued by non-financial companies over those issued by banks, the latest Fed data show. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, non-financial CP outstanding increased $5.1 billion to $187.1 billion in the week ended Sept. 21, while financial CP rose $3.2 billion to $503.5 billion. Since the end of 2010, the amount of industrial CP outstanding has grown by 65 percent, while the amount of bank CP has contracted by 10 percent.


----------



## Belguy

The Fed is virtually powerless. As they said on CNBC today, it is like pushing on a string!

The U.S. economic slump could last for YEARS!! There could be slow to no growth for a very long time.

Buy bonds and go long on U.S. dollars. (Canadian dollar worth 97 cents U.S. the last time that I checked--Wasn't too long ago that many were saying that the Canadian dollar would remain above par for a long time--ya, right!)

Investors are now selling whatever they can--including their grandmother's necklace, according to CNBC this morning.

How would the S&P at 80 sound to you?


----------



## el oro

S&P 500 since July










Here is an updated chart of the S&P 500 since July. If you don't like technical analysis, move on. I know it's unpopular here but this setup over the past few weeks has been a giant red warning flag telling me there has been significant risk of being long.

The S&P and several other indices/commodities have been going by the book and if they continue to do so, you can expect the blue line path and target area. The setup circled in purple theoretically occurs halfway down the move that is circled in red. That's how the target was derived.

The days around the first red arrow were an excellent entry point for selling longs or going short, with a stop-loss very close by just above the Aug. 31 high. Another low-risk (though not as good as the first) entry is at the second red arrow with a stop-loss above the blue uptrend line. If the blue uptrend line is penetrated to the upside after closing for at least a day below, my targets are nullified and I'll be neutral. If my targets are reached, then I'll reevaluate then.

For deal hunters, I recommend holding your ammo for now.

Good luck out there.


----------



## Homerhomer

Belguy said:


> How would the S&P at 80 sound to you?


I am not that pessimistic, my guess worst case scenario would be around 200, but it may take us a decade or two to get there.


----------



## ddkay

I'm shorting BNP Paribas:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=EPA:BNP
http://www.google.com/finance?q=PINK:BNPQY

Thanks to the short sell ban by the geniuses in Europe there's little risk of a legitimate short squeeze


----------



## Belguy

How does a decade or two of slow and steady declines in the markets sound to you? As I am approaching 70, I may have to wait until my 90's to see the return of market growth.

Oh well, I am a patient person! I will just have to postpone some of my retirement plans.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I now believe that the real intent of Operation Twist is to strengthen the US $, and not quantitative easing or reducing mortgage rates, etc. as they are publicly claiming.
Sure, those are the side effects but the real game here is to strengthen the US$.

Europe has played nicely into the hands of the US by bringing the EUR to near death crisis by their own incompetency and stupidity.
DSK is not the only philandering European leader - they are all the same - the difference is he is the sexual philanderer and the others are fiscal/monetary philanderers.

The declining strength of the USD, more than the recession or anything else, is posing a threat to the continued rampant consumption habits of the US economy and threatens the status quo, not to mention the re-election chances of the current administration.

The Fed annoucements 2 weeks ago, and yesterdays Twist are designed to strengthen the USD and it is having the desired effect.

Mortgage rates and QE easing are useless factors, and the Fed knows that.
The real game being played is the currency war.


----------



## Argonaut

Slaughterhouse.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Gold watchers : do you guys have ways of finding out who's buying large dumps of the physical metal?
If so, is the Fed buying?
I think that is what may be going on here in the last 2 weeks.
They are preparing to shore up their reserves.
A strong[er] USD with more gold reserves at Fort Knox is what they might be really after.


----------



## Larry6417

ddkay said:


> Aren't those only meant to be traded daily? I once read if you have one up day you get like quadruple losses, the only way holding overnight works in your favour is if the market consistently closes on red. If you bought today you'll probably wake up happy tomorrow though. I didn't even notice the market crashing, it all happened in the last hour and I was preoccupied with something. Good timing on your part I guess.


Great point ddkay. HXD rebalances (using futures) daily; however, it can compound if one "guesses" the right direction of the market for a short time. I'll use the company's example. Start with $100 in the market. If the market loses 10% on day 1, that $100 becomes $90. If the market drops another 10% on day 2, that $90 becomes $81. Therefore, 2 days of consecutive 10% losses leads to a 19% loss of the original capital ($100 - $81 = $19).

Contrast that with a double inverse negative fund like HXD. If the market loses 10% on day 1, HXD gains 20% i.e. $100 becomes $120. HXD is rebalanced daily, so at the start of day 2 the investor has $120, *not* the original $100. If, on day 2, the market loses another 10%, then the investor gains $24 (20% X $120). The investor now has $144 ($20 gain on day 1 + $24 gain on day 2). Therefore, 2 days of consecutive 10% losses causes the gains for a double inverse negative fund to compound i.e. 44% return, *not* 40%. In HBP's literature, the return curve (if you guess the direction correctly) slopes upward. You'll see what I mean if you look at a chart of HXD. See www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/chart/?q=HXD-T

Obviously, I'm betting that we'll see more losses than gains, at least for a while.


----------



## FrugalTrader

@1600Gold, I say keep the charts coming!


----------



## Argonaut

Gold in Canadian dollar terms is actually pretty flat. What you're seeing with the gold price is just a hyper-strong US dollar today.


----------



## ddkay

HaroldCrump said:


> I now believe that the real intent of Operation Twist is to strengthen the US $, and not quantitative easing or reducing mortgage rates, etc. as they are publicly claiming.
> Sure, those are the side effects but the real game here is to strengthen the US$.


This is exactly my thought too, but I don't know if the plan is deliberate or accidental from clumsiness. Basically the Fed are deleveraging $400B worth of money printing by buying $50B of US-Ts every month for 8 months, while the European banks have a dollar shortage and calling it "stimulus".

At least we know who the gold sellers are now - EU countries and banks trying to generate cash. Don't want to look at my screen when Italy dumps.


----------



## Argonaut

I doubt countries and banks are selling gold, they would be smarter to go bankrupt.

Anyway, where's the guy who mortgaged his house and maxed his credit cards to get into the market last month? Is he still married? Is he still alive, even?


----------



## dogleg

Argonaut: Neat question ! Is this a NEW buying opportunity or financial Armageddon ?


----------



## Belguy

Putting a more positive spin on it, a CNBC analyst said today that it was much safer now to invest in stocks than it was just a few weeks ago. As he put it, "you can't fall out of a basement window"!

U.S. equities are now trading sharply below their fair values.

The declining markets are "flushing out the weak equity holders"---CNBC

"Don't wait for the bell to start buying again because you are not going to hear it!!"--CNBC

We may be experiencing the final capitulation to be potentially followed by a 20 per cent bounce by the end of the year.---CNBC


----------



## HaroldCrump

*@ddkay*, I think this effect is very much desired, and not accidental and neither is the timing (pending Greek default + imminent domestic recession).

*@Argonaut*, how will any country benefit by going bankrupt, even Greece?
The currency will be destroyed and the unfettered consumption party will be over.

Thanks to the European circus, the US now has the perfect opportunity of killing two birds with one stone - huge monetary/fiscal stimulus AND strong dollar.
They are eating their cake and having it too.


----------



## ddkay

He hasn't posted since September 17th

http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=80015&postcount=798
http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=80156&postcount=832


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy said:


> Putting a more positive spin on it, a CNBC analyst said today that it was much safer now to invest in stocks than it was just a few weeks ago. As he put it, "you can't fall out of a basement window"!


CNBC is a perpetual cheerleader for stocks and I have no idea if stocks are yet in the basement. But it is undeniable that the more stocks fall, the safer it is to invest in them.


----------



## dogleg

Obviously there are many ways to assess this market nose-dive . I have never panicked over my market picks but when I see Cliffs Resources drop half its value in very short order that gets my attention.


----------



## ddkay

@Belguy Fundamentals are derivative values of measurement based on price+stated internals and are just as arbitrary as technical analysis. They can help in making decisions but aren't always valid.


----------



## dogcom

CanadianCapitalist you beat me to it I also agree that CNBC is a perpetual cheerleader for stocks.

I have bought some stocks today and I am now half in cash instead of the about 80% cash position I have been in since early 2011. I will slowly add if the price keep dropping like a rock but will always keep cash available in case the absolute worst happens like Dow 3800 or whatever.


----------



## Jungle

But really a lot of these companies are in great shape.. in other words I see value in stocks right now.


----------



## andrewf

Boy am I glad I sold VTI, RWR, VEU (especially) at the beginning of September. This is not looking good.


----------



## dogleg

Jungle: Care to mention which areas? Steel? Potash? Manufacturing? Electronics ? Banks? Food? etc.?


----------



## Argonaut

CAT is starting to look cool. It has hit a 52 week low today, and currently yielding 2.5%. I'm in no hurry. January 1st, no matter what the markets are at, is time to deploy.


----------



## fatcat

> But really a lot of these companies are in great shape.. in other words I see value in stocks right now.


 as others have pointed out, this is what CNBC keeps telling us ... but these companies are only in good shape if they have a viable economy with enough spendable cash to buy their products and services ...


----------



## ddkay

CAT told people at the Citi conference "China is slowing down a little bit"


----------



## Jungle

dogleg said:


> Jungle: Care to mention which areas? Steel? Potash? Manufacturing? Electronics ? Banks? Food? etc.?


Banks, railway. Also I'm liking some US blue chips, XOM, MMM, even PEP, PM, PG, etc. Too bad our dollar just took a $hit.


----------



## Jungle

WHOA: Time to debrief: wtf happened today? 2008/09 all over again.... 

TSX was down 530 points (at one point)


----------



## Mockingbird

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> No ddkay, the losses aren't that bad. If you bought the 2x ETF of the TSX at the '09 bottom, you'd be outperforming the TSX by ~35% over the same time period despite many down weeks. It does fall well short of the 2x performance as there is decay when holding beyond a day.


Still a tough gig.
I'm sure I can come up with a dozen or more failed leveraged ETF investors for every successful one.

MB


----------



## el oro

From a trader's perspective, the charts were very bearish but no one dared to short the market while there was a risk of Bernanke announcing a big QE program yesterday. There were also a bunch of people betting on a QE fuelled rally (forced to sell today) and how wrong they were. His announcement passed and the market concluded that he delivered below expectations and indicated there is still significant risk to the economy. Therefore, sellers returned late yesterday and today... with a vengeance.


----------



## el oro

True MB, I don't doubt that. I just meant that the decay wasn't as bad as ddkay figured.

MB, who is your futures broker? And are you satisfied with them?


----------



## Argonaut

I think it's time to revisit the permanent portfolio. Year to date:

25% Cash - small gain
25% Bonds - large gain
25% Stocks - large loss
25% Gold - large gain

It's as close to infallible during all market conditions as you can get.


----------



## Mockingbird

Belguy said:


> U.S. equities are now trading sharply below their fair values.


No need to worry about unless you are an arbitrageur.


----------



## Mockingbird

ddkay said:


> Thanks for clearing that up 1600. That makes me a bit more comfortable using the product in the future.
> 
> It's a shame most of the action has been happening in ETH futures after US close, 99% of retail investors don't have access, so far the ES is down 1.5% in a waterfall patern decline. Great day for Larry, bulls are going to cry when they wake up.


During the high volatility days, trading futures afterhours is not as easy as many think. The gyration/cycles are so huge that most people cannot stomach the minute-to-minute drawdowns.

MB


----------



## fatcat

> I think it's time to revisit the permanent portfolio. Year to date:
> 
> 25% Cash - small gain
> 25% Bonds - large gain
> 25% Stocks - large loss
> 25% Gold - large gain
> 
> It's as close to infallible during all market conditions as you can get.


good point argo, for those of us in our sixties (not you i realize) who can't suffer to much downside, the permanent portfolio seems to be fairly bulletproof

the us mutual fund PRPFX (which is based on a modified pp) has done really well in almost all recent time frames and is 5-star rated by morningstar


----------



## Mockingbird

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> True MB, I don't doubt that. I just meant that the decay wasn't as bad as ddkay figured.
> 
> MB, who is your futures broker? And are you satisfied with them?


IB is the main one and it does the trick. As you know all brokers will have their own quirky issues. Am I satisfied? I tolerate them more than others. 

MB


----------



## ddkay

Ed Chancellor - GMO "It’s no exaggeration to say that Chinese property has become the “most important sector in the universe.”

HSBC, estimates that China’s housing stock is worth ~350% of GDP, in line with Japan’s residential real estate in 1990. Chinese household incomes would have to rise by 10% a year for 20 years to catch up with German levels of housing affordability.


----------



## HaroldCrump

ddkay said:


> HSBC, estimates that China’s housing stock is worth ~350% of GDP, in line with Japan’s residential real estate in 1990. Chinese household incomes would have to rise by 10% a year for 20 years to catch up with German levels of housing affordability.


Isn't it true - I vaguely recall - back in the 1990s, the Japanese were one of the largest holders of US$ debt?
And now that baton goes to China.
Hmmm...I wonder if a local housing bubble has anything do to with all the US$ debt exported by America.
Naw, surely it can't be


----------



## ddkay

I listened into a webinar tonight with Pete Campbell hosted by Big Mike's Trading forum. Some important messages to take home:

People spend credit different than they spend their own money... you buy a house in cash, you're probably going to take care of it, think you have a good shot to pass it onto your kids. You buy a million dollar house on leverage with a mortgage, all you think about is what you can do to increase its value and flip it a year or two later for $200,000 profit. Those short cuts are a problem. Credit makes people think 180 degrees off base.

Think about it from a more pragmatic perspective. There are basically two types of currency, fiat currency, and fiat credit. Right now there's a shortage of fiat currency while an overabundance of fiat credit has been executed. Think about when the Fed props up the market, they aren't doing it with paper fiat, they're issuing loans. In this market people are being forced to sell assets and replace them with cash. The nature of this process and the longer it continues invariably means fiat credit is being destroyed and there isn't enough fiat currency for them to replace it with. We are reverting to just a fiat currency. Basically, short the market (while being careful and opportunistic), go long the US dollar.

The most practical advice for new traders. Paper trade. Paper trading is a proper form of risk management, it lets you build a framework for yourself, understand your risk tolerance and keep you level headed when you don't have control over the market i.e. all the time.


----------



## jamesbe

Today solidified my buy and hold strategy LOL, no point in taking it out now!


----------



## ddkay

You would only worry about leaving it in if you are over-allocated. It's not important to be all in for the big moves. What is important is not getting destroyed. You have to decide a bias and invest with the worst case scenarios in mind, and don't be greedy.


----------



## Belguy

Do you think that all of this ongoing volatility is going to push quite a few investors out of the equity markets for a long time to come and maybe forever? Over just the past ten years, there have been two bull markets and two bear markets and we had just nicely recovered from the stomach churning drop of 2008 and now this after such a short time frame! I, for one, have decided that this is no longer a game that I want to participate in but neither do I want to sell at a loss if I can avoid it. 'If only' I had known earlier this year, around June or July is when I would have exited the equity markets forever. Now, like so many others, I am stuck and have to wait and hope for a rebound.

Gordon Pape advises that you not even try to time the market bottom and just sit on the sidelines until the market has rebounded by 20 percent and get back in at that point and ride it up the rest of the way. What d'ya think?

Why didn't everybody see this coming last spring?

The moral of the story: Never invest any money in the stock market that you can't afford to lose!!


----------



## Larry6417

Belguy said:


> Gordon Pape advises that you not even try to time the market bottom and just sit on the sidelines until the market has rebounded by 20 percent and get back in at that point and ride it up the rest of the way. What d'ya think?


Sound like a great way...to lose money. It makes infinitely more sense to buy after a 20% drop than after a 20% rebound. Gordon Pape, despite his rep, gives absolutely bizarre financial advice.


----------



## fatcat

> Why didn't everybody see this coming last spring?


 a lot of people saw this come belguy ... do you ever read zerohedge ? ... if you don't you are missing an important point of view ... plenty of people saw this coming ... we have all overspent, we own too much stuff that is sitting on a mountain of debt ... no big surprise ... be unhappy but don't be unsurprised


----------



## Belguy

Yes, but a great number of pundits either didn't see it coming or didn't want to warn us about it for whatever reasons. We were sailing along pretty well for the first half of the year and the message that I got was that things should even improve in the last half of the year. I am thinking that there are no end of financial folks out there whose best interests are served by telling us to just stay the course or even to buy more when they should know better!!

Of course, they just keep on making money off of our money even while we are losing our shirts!!

They get to drive their new Lexus while we get to ride the bus!!

It is at times such as this that I am at least thankful that I am not paying anyone a 2.5 per cent management fee to manage my portfolio while it drops like a rock!!


----------



## ddkay

Some brain food from McKinsey


----------



## fatcat

> Yes, but a great number of pundits either didn't see it coming or didn't want to warn us about it for whatever reasons. We were sailing along pretty well for the first half of the year and the message that I got was that things should even improve in the last half of the year. I am thinking that there are no end of financial folks out there whose best interests are served by telling us to just stay the course or even to buy more when they should know better!!
> 
> Of course, they just keep on making money off of our money even while we are losing our shirts!!
> 
> They get to drive their new Lexus while we get to ride the bus!!
> 
> It is at times such as this that I am at least thankful that I am not paying anyone a 2.5 per cent management fee to manage my portfolio while it drops like a rock!!


on this we agree  the guy who manages my aunts investments is a very fine ia, hard working and honest and his firm has been talking about a second half rebound, many firms have been ... 

apparently there is still some stimulus money working its way through the system and i hear people on bloomberg say the same thing .... 

we aren't done yet ... three months to go .. maybe ... 

i just am very worried about 2 things 1) the mountain of debt piled up in the developed west ... 2) the increasingly squeezed middle, lower-middle and lower classes of the united states (and canada even too to a lesser degree) ... they simply do not have enough extra money to buy the things that our consumer based economies need to sell in order to grow

this making for a nightmarish scenario and it now looks like china is baking a pretty overdone piece of cake itself which could catch fire at any moment ... 

i just don't see any bright spots on the horizon whatsoever

ps. (i think the word "significant" (as in "significant downside risks") just cost us all a bunch of money - why did he choose that exact word ?)


----------



## HaroldCrump

fatcat said:


> ps. (i think the word "significant" (as in "significant downside risks") just cost us all a bunch of money - why did he choose that exact word ?)


What do you think will happen if we lined up all the politicians and career bureaucrats in front of a firing squad?
It possibly can't get any worse than this.


----------



## KaeJS

fatcat said:


> ps. (i think the word "significant" (as in "significant downside risks") just cost us all a bunch of money - why did he choose that exact word ?)


Exactly.

But I feel it was inevitable, either way.

I like the crash though. Makes me a happy man. It should be making most of you happy, too. Except Belguy -- I actually feel bad for the guy.


----------



## Abha

KaeJS said:


> Exactly.
> 
> But I feel it was inevitable, either way.
> 
> I like the crash though. Makes me a happy man. It should be making most of you happy, too. Except Belguy -- I actually feel bad for the guy.


I doubt anyone with a long term portfolio is feeling happy just about now. 

It does seem like a great entry for people who are cash heavy.


----------



## dogleg

Belguy: I have to wonder what financial advisories you tune in to . The ones I have sent to me have been screaming about 'financial Armageddon' for months now. I don't always believe them but it does alert one to impending changes . When a person with a history of market experience sees this volatility I think there is kind of a built-in sense of when stocks with good fundamentals have crested or bottomed. Or do you just call it luck ? This too will end . Why? Because the big -time investors don't like to lose and they will make sure things change in their favour. Cheers.


----------



## fatcat

interesting take on the use of the word "significiant": http://seekingalpha.com/article/295317-did-bernanke-do-that-on-purpose

short answer: getting political cover for QE3


----------



## Belguy

I'm not sure, dogleg!! I know that you're not supposed to say this but, this time, it does seem to be different. There just seem to be so many headwinds out there and the politicians do not have anything left to fight them with. I really don't think that we can expect a quick rebound from this but stay tuned. I hope that I am wrong.

It now seems so long ago when I was saying to "buy, hold, and prosper"!

Buy, hold, and panic seems more like it!!

However, it is now time for me to hit the sack for another night of pleasant dreams. 

Tomorrow is another day!


----------



## jamesbe

Buy buy buy if you can.

I just put $30k in my TfSA a month ago, I'm down about $500, but it's a long term, if you are in it for the long term just wait it out. But I suppose most on here do not have many years before retirement, I've got 30.


----------



## Belguy

Well, you may be in for a long wait!! Many pundits are now predicting little or no gains for the major indexes for the next TEN YEARS!!


----------



## KaeJS

How in the WORLD are you able to put $30k into your TFSA?



Buy, hold, and pay taxes to the government?!


----------



## Abha

jamesbe said:


> Buy buy buy if you can.
> 
> I just put $30k in my TfSA a month ago.


How did you get $30k in the TFSA? Aren't you way over the limit?


----------



## Mockingbird

KaeJS said:


> Exactly.
> 
> But I feel it was inevitable, either way.
> 
> I like the crash though. Makes me a happy man. It should be making most of you happy, too. Except Belguy -- I actually feel bad for the guy.


Not sure how the crash would make most people happy. This affects almost everyone who invested in a stock market. Many rely on pensions (even CPP) and RRSPs that are mostly market linked for their retirement. At the end, every tax payer will have to pay for any shortfall.

Don't get me wrong - it has been the best market since 2007/2008 and I love cashing in this volatility. However, too many people, including those close family members and friends who are near their retirement age, are affected by this market turmoil. I know it doesn't make me happy.

MB


----------



## Mockingbird

Abha said:


> I doubt anyone with a long term portfolio is feeling happy just about now.
> 
> It does seem like a great entry for people who are cash heavy.


Despite all this "heavy on cash" talk, unfortunately most people wouldn't know the bargain even if they see one.
Many missed in 1997 Asian Crisis, in 2001 Internet Bubble, in 2007 Credit Crunch, and many will miss again this time around. 

For most, the regular DCA is the best answer.

My 2c.
MB


----------



## Jon_Snow

I just put 30k into OUR TFSA's... that being my wife's and mine. She let's me play with her money - wonderful woman she is.


----------



## Mockingbird

Larry6417 said:


> Sound like a great way...to lose money. It makes infinitely more sense to buy after a 20% drop than after a 20% rebound. Gordon Pape, despite his rep, gives absolutely bizarre financial advice.


I do not know the exact premise of his strategy; however, many successful technical investors/traders do buy on dips once the uptrend is established. It would be a different story for the value investors.

MB


----------



## jamesbe

Well I've got 2 TFSA's LOL one for me and one for the Wife 

So $30k in total so... sure OUR.

Belguy, pundits say lots of things, just ignore it all and go drink a beer and forget about it. Lucky me I bought at a market low for the most part in August.


----------



## andrewf

^ Agree. Belguy puts way too much stock in what some talking head has to say.

I'll let you in on a little secret: no one knows what's going to happen. Anyone who claims to is talking out of their posterior.


----------



## fatcat

> I'll let you in on a little secret: no one knows what's going to happen. Anyone who claims to is talking out of their posterior.


+1 ... that's why you need to build a portfolio that will withstand up markets and down markets and never assume it will go in any direction ...


----------



## Larry6417

Mockingbird said:


> I do not know the exact premise of his strategy; however, many successful technical investors/traders do buy on dips once the uptrend is established. It would be a different story for the value investors.
> 
> MB


I'm speaking as a value investor. Pape's advice, as quoted earlier (and other advice I've heard him give over the years), seems absurd on so many levels. Pape's advice to buy after a rally instead of a drop is basically advising investors to buy at a higher price point. Also, he's advising people to try to time the market. Who knows when the bottom is reached for sure? Who knows for sure that the market will rise in a straight line (i.e. "ride the gain up")? Give the market volatility we could easily see a 20% drop followed by a 30% gain followed by a 40% drop. 

I don't pay much attention to technical analysis. As far as I know, neither does Pape.


----------



## ddkay

I wish I had more US Dollars, it's better than Gold until it gets out of control and they pull a SNB lol 










Bought 2 Gold 1250ps for October this morning. If we have another Lehman moment could easily drop another $300 or more. There is strong support at $1600 though. Disaster planning...


----------



## Belguy

When I listen to some people on this forum, each and every thing that the market does is a positive. When it goes up, they are happy to be making money and when the elevator drops straight down without even touching the sides and crashes at the bottom, then that too is a positive as it is an opportunity to buy at bargain prices.

At times like this, I can only dream of having such an attitude but all that I can think about is the stomach churning volatility and the fact that the indexes have essentially gained little in the past ten plus years and forecast not to do well over the next five to ten years. Oh, but I forget that, there is a positive here as well as you have been collecting all of those dividends in the meantime.

Oh, to live a life where there are no negatives!!!


----------



## ddkay

A wise person once said there are only two positions to take in this market, cash and fetal


----------



## Belguy

Just invest long term in a ladder of GIC's. That has been my life's lesson!!

Having a defined pension plan after you retire from your public service job doesn't hurt either.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> When I listen to some people on this forum, each and every thing that the market does is a positive. When it goes up, they are happy to be making money and when the elevator drops straight down without even touching the sides and crashes at the bottom, then that too is a positive as it is an opportunity to buy at bargain prices.


Indexes are down 10-20% in the last three months.

Do you need 10-20% of your money in the next few months ? If the answer is no, what is the problem ? Go play golf or something.

Looking at the market daily is counter productive. If you cant stomach the volatility, put your money in 3% GIC and be done with it.


----------



## Belguy

That is precisely my plan and I should have done it five years ago!!


----------



## andrewf

What is your current equity allocation? Sounds to me you should be like 30% equity max. You clearly can't handle market volatility.


----------



## Abha

His equity position should be 10% 

Sometimes I feel really for him as his risk tolerance just isn't compatible with the wild swings of the market.


----------



## ddkay

Something else is increasing with this volatility 

Study: financial crisis increased suicide rate - July 2011
S.Korea bank chief found dead in apparent suicide - September 2011


----------



## Yudansha

ddkay said:


> Something else is increasing with this volatility
> 
> Study: financial crisis increased suicide rate - July 2011
> S.Korea bank chief found dead in apparent suicide - September 2011


That is quite sad. There is nothing in this world worth committing suicide over.


----------



## Homerhomer

Abha said:


> His equity position should be 10%
> 
> Sometimes I feel really for him as his risk tolerance just isn't compatible with the wild swings of the market.


Is anyone putting a gun to his head and making him invest in equities?

If you make your own bed and can't sleep in it then don't whine if it's not comfortable.


----------



## Mockingbird

Yudansha said:


> That is quite sad. There is nothing in this world worth committing suicide over.


In some countries it's just a honourable thing to do.

MB


----------



## Belguy

Well, at least I am not alone. A lot of investors are starting to question whether they want to live with this ongoing degree of volatility!!!

I would hazard a guess that I have been investing in the markets for a lot longer than most of you on this forum and note that I have NEVER sold anything in a panic. It is hard to take criticism from those with far less time and experience at investing.

I am just getting tired of relatively anemic performance of the indexes over the past ten years or so along with all of the volatility along the way. I liken it somewhat to taking a roller coaster ride that ends up more or less where you started. The ride made have been exciting but, aside from that, what really have you gained? 

Also note that I have never lost any sleep because of the markets but I do feel more positive when the markets are doing well than at times like this.

However, now I am 68 and just getting a tad tired of the whole spectacle. Maybe you would feel the same if you were in my shoes. It's hard to relate when you're in your 20's and 30's and 40's or if you are playing with money that you can afford to lose without it affecting your lifestyle.

In other words, our circumstances may be vastly different.


----------



## webber22

Belguy, earlier today you said were 67, now you say 68 !!! You aged an ENTIRE YEAR TODAY !!!!!!


----------



## donald

Belguy,there saying as long as it aint a lehman,worst case sceniro down 15-20% from here and its likely started with a 5% drop already,You most likely have another 25yrs to live,if your portfolio was up or down 20% would it actually effect your lifestyle today?

You will likely slowly edge out as you need the income anyways?I have know right making comments(im new to this world)but maybe your just to close to the fire right now,things could look different 2 yrs from now....how do you exactly know we wont have a 10 yr bull run?could happen.


----------



## ddkay

I don't like putting much faith in these filters because they're susceptible to divergence and give too many false positives/false negatives especially in a crash scenario, but on 2hr time frames they are generally accurate tells for the following days price movements, so in all likelyhood next week the SP500 should be flat to up. Maybe it will try to backtest the 1170s pre-crash level. There's always a monster coming out of the closet though so I'm going to remain pessimistic until systemic risk goes away. Today there were rumours that Europe would soon recapitalize its banks. Let's see if this weekend they can actually get that done.










Have a good weekend folks, and remember, no bad news 'til Monday!


----------



## Belguy

I don't know what the next few days and weeks may bring but the Dow lost 737 points just this week or 6.4 per cent of it's value. The TSX lost 6.53% this week and is down 20 per cent since March!

I heard on 'The National' tonight that, if you are currently investing in equities, you are essentially betting on the politicians and that they can take steps to resolve the European debt crisis. Good luck with that as they haven't done much so far other than dither a lot.

The situation is growing more urgent by the day!

My portfolio lost 40 per cent of it's value in 2008 and the TSX is down 20 per cent from it's highs for this year and so we generally have 20 per cent left to go until the losses exceed those of 2008. Not only that, but many think that we are in for a long period of slow to no growth in the years ahead and so that may affect the next recovery.

Anyway, time will tell where this roller coaster ride will take us!!

Yes, we have the weekend off until the fun begins again!!


----------



## Assetologist

The numbers may look bad but we have yet to reach true capitulation again!

Anyone in the markets over the past 4 years should think back to the palpable feeling in the spring of 2009 when real submission to the market forces prevailed - we are not there yet.


----------



## Financial Cents

ddkay said:


> A wise person once said there are only two positions to take in this market, cash and fetal


That was funny.


----------



## Argonaut

The indexes are just numbers, and tools to use. I honestly wouldn't recommend to anyone to invest in indexes. My boring dividend stock portfolio is up 1% year to date without including dividends. These stocks aren't hard to find. If one can't find them, one should stay away from stocks.


----------



## Jets99

Hi Argonaut, I too am in boring dividend stocks but am not doing nearly as well as you at 1%.

Care to list your stocks? Thanks.


----------



## Argonaut

Inter Pipeline, RioCan REIT, CN Rail, Telus, Fortis.

That's my TFSA anyway. Margin account has done better, but not dividend oriented and much more risky.


----------



## Belguy

Have no fear--the IMF is scheduled to meet again in NOVEMBER at which time they intend to discuss the world economy further to see if they can come up with any fixes.

NOVEMBER????????


----------



## dogleg

When I read Belguy's comments (and other similar ones ) I think of what Jay Leno said when he was talking to a financial guru on his show; he said, I don't care if I don't make a dime on my money as long as I don't lose any. Maybe not a bad idea but I know I couldn't sit still and watch inflation steal my money ; I would rather play the game and take the risk. Looking at the chaos in world markets and how governments deal with them it reinforce the fact that humans aren't really all that intelligent. Recent data seems to indicate that even Einstein's 'cosmic principle' may be wrong !


----------



## Homerhomer

dogleg said:


> When I read Belguy's comments (and other similar ones ) I think of what Jay Leno said when he was talking to a financial guru on his show; he said, I don't care if I don't make a dime on my money as long as I don't lose any. !


Jay Leno makes millions of dollars, most of us have to work hard to put anything away, we need to make money in the stock market to retire comforably, Jay doesn't.


----------



## Larry6417

Belguy said:


> Have no fear--the IMF is scheduled to meet again in NOVEMBER at which time they intend to discuss the world economy further to see if they can come up with any fixes.
> 
> NOVEMBER????????


Belguy, have you considered purchasing an annuity? You seem awfully stressed by the market, and you're approaching the age where mortality credits will enhance the return on your annuity. You'd probably get a lot more sleep too.


----------



## ddkay

Brilliant observations in Robert Shillers book, Irrational Exuberance:


----------



## ddkay

The Fed is not adding new liquidity with Twist, they are unwinding (selling) short term notes and buying into long term bonds. This causes the USD to go up and all other currencies to go down. It will also cause the effects of QE2 to be completely erased and can even overshoot to the point SPX 980 is plausible. Combine that with banks and sovereigns taking losses in Europe, were going to at least retest the 2009 low of 666.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> The Fed is not adding new liquidity with Twist, they are unwinding (selling) short term notes and buying into long term bonds. This causes the USD to go up and all other currencies to go down. It will also cause the effects of QE2 to be completely erased and can even overshoot to the point SPX 980 is plausible. Combine that with banks and sovereigns taking losses in Europe, were going to at least retest the 2009 low of 666.


So you would advise to sell equities and take losses now


----------



## Montyswe

G20 leaders discuss orderly default:

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/loans-and-credit/2011/09/24/g20-leaders-discuss-orderly-default


----------



## ddkay

I advised selling at profit in April when the market was inexplicably rising lol.

Maybe it's best to use one of those "How much are you willing to lose" threads as reference. KaeJS said he could handle a 100% loss. I'm not close to retirement, so if I could see myself working a decent income job 3 years out a 100% loss might erase my life savings, but it's not the end of the world.

Obviously if massive credit contractions are imminent followed by indefinite hiring freezes I'm going to be a little more uncomfortable, that's why I set the biggest loss I can handle for now to 5%.

It's all about where your pinch point is.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> I advised selling at profit in April when the market was inexplicably rising lol.


OK, If I would more experienced, I'd seel in April too ... or just avoid this biggest casino and instead invest in GIC, but now it's too late.... Probably I will need those money in at least 10-15 years (I have about 50% in fixed income - cash and bonds)... and probably I won't see those money  ...not end of the world, but still hurts

BTW, do you beleive that in 10-15 years market will rebound to this year highest levels?


----------



## dogcom

Ddkay I also think we will see and go below the 2009 lows at some point in the next year or so. Right now I am thinking that a very good sucker rally will probably take place starting next month and then down we go to those 2009 lows and beyond.

I have bought some equities now and will slowly add as the prices drop if they do. I am also hearing corporate bonds may be a better bet then the stock because companies have money in the bank to cover the bonds but are not growing or investing the money to help the shareholders.


----------



## fatcat

dogleg said:


> Maybe not a bad idea but I know I couldn't sit still and watch inflation steal my money ; I would rather play the game and take the risk.


 a lot depends on your debt situation and the degree to which you are exposed to inflation ... we are on the edge of deflationary period (other than perhaps food) so if you keep your capital and earn 1% you can weather it through ... keeping capital is the prime directive ...especially after age 50+


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> KaeJS said he could handle a 100% loss.


It I would have size of KaeJS's portfolio, I'd also can easily handle 100% loss...(I lost much more than that)...
Stili, can it be 100% loss, I don't believe that SU, BCE, RCI, Canadian Banks etc will disappear... and if they do, nobody will need any cash. The currency will be vodka, food and so on,


----------



## ddkay

I don't know if or when the market will come back to this years highs. I probably have better chances of picking the jackpot lotto numbers. :S

The Telegraph put out a story a few hours ago. They haven't really resolved anything this weekend. They acknowledge they should expand the EFSF to EUR1.75 trillion (old news) but still have to vote.

George Osbourne is saying Europe has six weeks of political maneuvering to fix the crisis - until the November G20 summit in Cannes - before world financial meltdown.

So now they are publicly telling people Lehman x 4 (BNP + Credit Agricole + DB + SocGen) is coming and that they have the power to contain it.

Excuse my language, but we're fucked.



> The eurozone deal being brokered by the G20 group of nations would aim to "ring fence" the crisis around Greece, Portugal and Ireland, preventing it from spreading to major EU economies such as Italy and Spain.
> 
> It would involve bialing out those European banks - mostly French - at greatest risk from their massive lendings to tettering economies.
> 
> Greece would be able to default on at least some of its $200 billion plus debts, but remain inside the eurozone. The Greek government's private creditors would bear most of the increased costs.


----------



## el oro

So are you other doom and gloomers going to put your money into your forecast, heavily shorting/put buying? 



$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


>


From my last chart above, the S&P is on the way to sub 1000. A rally above the blue line, though, would neutralize my bearishness for now and everything below should be ignored. If that sub-1000 target was reached I would likely reevaluate and say: 

A big Fed-type intervention will be the only thing that will derail the markets from going back to 2009 lows and beyond. After new lows are made into 2012 and people are disgusted with equities as an asset class (you can already see it in the forum), then a new sustained bull market in equities can begin. Sell down to a level where you won't lose sleep but don't panic sell everything after a market plunge! It will be a VERY rough ride for some. Keep your eyes on the big picture. Companies are still making money. Government debts are the real issue. Once everyone realizes this, capital will flow from bonds and back into equities, gold, you name it!

Marc Faber seems to think QE3 will happen at 900 - 950 S&P but I doubt that.

I'm betting on the short side but I know when I'm wrong and when to bail. I'm not recommending it to others. What I do recommend is keeping some cash on hand for a much bigger dip. 

Then again, this is just my opinion and I'm probably wrong. I'll update the chart if the target is reached. Good luck out there!


----------



## Belguy

From the Globe and Mail--Can China help this time?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ain/article2178600/singlepage/#articlecontent


----------



## gibor365

_John Taylor - who runs the biggest independent forex-based hedge-fund firm on earth - says Greece will default, the euro will go to hell, and the dollar rally is just getting started. And, in five years, we could see $500 oil _
Meaning it's time to buy solid oil stocks?


----------



## ddkay

Everything but that last part sounds like a reality. He must be betting on hyperinflation, that's not going to happen...


----------



## donald

I called madam cleo last night and she said......lol.kidding.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Everything but that last part sounds like a reality. He must be betting on hyperinflation, that's not going to happen...


I don't think hyperinflation is needed.... It's enough that inflation from regular 2-3% will rise to 6-7% (that is pretty good for emerging market countries) and oil can rise to $500 mark.,...

and yes, IMHO US$ can rise significdantly and CAD gan go down to 80 cents, that will have some hedge if US equites going down


----------



## gibor365

donald said:


> I called madam cleo last night and she said......lol.kidding.


Than give us some tips...is she shorting TSX ?


----------



## donald

Steve jobs is the anti-christ and we are all going to get the apple logo mark,thats about all i can give out right now,gotta call her back tommorow.


----------



## HaroldCrump

gibor said:


> _John Taylor - who runs the biggest independent forex-based hedge-fund firm on earth - says Greece will default, the euro will go to hell, and the dollar rally is just getting started. And, in five years, we could see $500 oil _


I'm with ddkay on this, the last two pieces are contradictory.
Oil can go to $500 only under two scenarios - massive devaluation of the USD (in which case Gold will probably go past $3,000) OR massive increase in emerging market demand.

I don't see either happening.

IMO, Operation Twist might be the first of many manoeuvres that pushes the USD significantly higher, and the US needs this to prevent the domestic economy from falling apart.
There are other, more serious, consequences that the US is trying to prevent by appreciating the USD, even at the risk of recession and poor economic activity.
For instance, purchase of hard assets within the US territories by the Chinese, Indians, etc.

Regarding the second possibility, China, India etc. still need a few years to wean themselves away from the export dependency on US and Europe.

The currency dynamics, as well as oil and gold, will be very interesting to watch in the coming months and years.
That will teach us what is real vs. what the tomes of bourgeois economics teach us.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> KaeJS said he could handle a 100% loss. It's all about where your pinch point is.


Just increased my share purchase plan to 40% of after tax income last week. I stand by what I said. Going super long with the blue-chips. I figure I can handle a 50% loss, and after 50% has been lost, theres not even a point in selling and I might as well just gambl the rest; which creates a stomach for 100% loss LOL! 



gibor said:


> It I would have size of KaeJS's portfolio, I'd also can easily handle 100% loss...(I lost much more than that)...
> Stili, can it be 100% loss, I don't believe that SU, BCE, RCI, Canadian Banks etc will disappear... and if they do, nobody will need any cash. The currency will be vodka, food and so on,


I agree on all accounts, gibor.

I do not have a $200k portfolio or anything of that nature, nor do I believe that SU, BCE ,RCI or the banks would ever disappear. And like you say, if the banks started disappearing... you'd have bigger issues than your stock in the company.

Said it before and I'll say it again - but I hope we get slaughtered this week. I'd like to see another 5-10% drop over the week on the DOW and TSX. I'm scared about Gold though, its dropping too quickly.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I feel for those who would be hurt by such a thing, but I agree with KaeJS that a big drop would be a welcome event. I just went through my accounts and have 85k available to invest tomorrow. Come February, I will have 200k on hand.

I have mentioned it before on this board, but I missed the opportunity that was March 2009... it seemed to me the world as we knew it was ending and dropping hundreds of thousands of dollars into the markets at that time didn't really cross my mind. Yet, if we approach those lows again, I hope I have the stones to go all in this time. We will see.


----------



## ddkay

I just noticed this cup and handle pattern on the VIX, a bit after the handle forms it's supposed to break out to the upside... it's not a perfect formation so it might not be valid, but let's see










Reference: http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts3.asp#axzz1Z0zCDfWs


----------



## andrewf

Can you apply that kind of technical analysis to a non-tradable, highly mean reverting index?


----------



## el oro

Notable forecast from Armstrong in *1998*:


----------



## ddkay

Who's that?


----------



## ddkay

So I read up on Armstrong. Man, what a messy history, he calls himself a political prisoner? There's a lengthy discussion on the Wiki talk page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Martin_A._Armstrong

Anyway, his theory: "He named the major long-term global model the Economic Confidence Model, which fine-tuned the business cycle to 8.6 years. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volker also accepted the fact that the business cycle was about 8 years in his Rediscovering the Business Cycle 1978. This model has become famous for since the subsequent discovery that its accuracy may be based upon the fact that it is the perfect business cycle [(365.25 days x 8.6 = 3141.15 days) = Pi] (See “The Secret Cycle” by Nick Paumgarten; The New Yorker Magazine Oct 2009 10 Page Article on Armstrong’s discovery)"


















Anyone could guess the peaks and troughs on this cycle chart, a Greece default could put a bottom in the last quarter of 2011, but what about the months of institutional deleveraging? maybe it happens all at once. who knows.


----------



## ddkay

@andrewf, that stupid cup and handle pattern is looking more valid now SP500 futures are down 1%. Gold is now broken $1600 support, hopefully the massacre continues into oblivion so I can sell my 2 puts from Friday at 5 digit profits. 

My mind is getting carried away though, it probably won't get that bad. I hope, anyway. These kind of moves should be making a lot of people throw in the towel.


----------



## Argonaut

Is that real money or still your paper trading account? I was thinking about buying silver puts on Friday but thought I was too late. I've been sitting on my hands after my RIMM trade, but if gold drops significantly I may have to make some moves to keep up my good annual numbers.


----------



## ddkay

This GLD contract was real money. I only have AAPL on paperMoney, of course if my lame prediction comes true I'd wish AAPL was real too though...

I've only made a couple of option trades IRL. I started earlier this summer with some thoughtless dollar store bets (as humble called them) on long-term out-of-money unidirectional contracts. I got out of a BMC call with a lucky $30 profit but a NVDA call expired worthless so realized loss in my account for the summer was $30, and I have a $170 paper losses on Sprint calls for 2012 if things don't turn around... and $80 losses in 2013 GLD LEAPS puts if GLD somehow skyrockets.

/GC seems to have bottomed at 1535 and is now rising again. Time will tell what this means... There seem to be rumours (again) of French bank recapitalisation http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/26/685191/a-french-bank-recap-rumour/. What an efficient market it is to be driven by entirely by speculation and rumours.


----------



## ddkay

LOL

A trader went on BBC and told everyone Goldman Sachs rules the world http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> LOL
> 
> A trader went on BBC and told everyone Goldman Sachs rules the world http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA


This guy is a **tard

http://www.leadingtrader.com/09/global-recession-why-i-pray-for-another-recession/


----------



## ddkay

If the volatility index pattern I posted over the weekend means anything and no more monsters come out of the closet (e.g. Germans block EFSF on Thursday), there is potential for VIX to come down another $10 while stocks rise. The filters were also valid but I didn't trust them enough to trade on them since they are very short term indicators (couple of days days max)


----------



## ddkay

We're literally rising as fast as we were falling but I don't see anyone complaining about it. People that can't stomach volatility should really be using days like this to rebalance their portfolios. Just calling it how I see it.

The VIX is falling for the second day in a row with nothing to interfere. On a time basis the VIX is due to hit its 50DMA and then the lower trendline over the next few days. If we go below both of those it would neutralize my bearishness, and if it's supported by realistic "everything is fixed" good news I will be bullish again. Otherwise, its going to bounce and head back to $40 while stocks flush.

Es Futures since September 16th, 2011:


----------



## jamesbe

I feel so rich today, I'm back to where I was last week LOL!


----------



## peterboro31

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2011/9/27/A-spike-in-insider-buying.aspx


----------



## ddkay

Example of how people change numbers to support their viewpoint ^ You can't build a reliable indicator on 2.5 years of data. OTOH his chart does show a possible peak forming on insider buying soon.


----------



## humble_pie

i don't believe that charts showing insider trading project into the future like stock charts.

if one graphed auto accidents at a dangerous intersection, little bear's approach might suggest that accidents start to rise every year in april & they peak in july & the pattern is cast in stone.

but probably installing better traffic lights would change everything.

anyhow that ted dixon (owner of INK research) is one very smart guy, i'm always happy to hear what he thinks.


----------



## larry81

just want to step in and say:

blablabla end of the world, greek default, hyperinflation, zerohedge permabears, blablabla


----------



## ddkay

INKs sentiment indicator does a fine job at showing sentiment but it doesn't say a lot whether or not the insiders were right, you have to overlay the stock indices to see that.



> Insider buying
> Financial Times [London (UK)] 03 Oct 2009: 26.
> 
> A fair amount of paranoia surrounds corporate insider trading. Public disclosure of managers buying or selling a significant number of their company's shares is mandatory, and penalties for rule breaches are stiff.
> 
> Indeed, many outside investors use such information as a signal for their own buy or sell decisions. The presumption is that directors have an intimate knowledge about their company and thus the prospects for its shares. It may be worrying that the global ratio of insider buys to sells has fallen to zero, from more than two to one at the end of 2008. People in the know, it seems, are predicting a market crash. Recent history, though, shows insiders are not always the smartest investors. In the three months after Lehman Brothers' collapse, average US insider buying increased by about 40 per cent to $40m per day, even as markets were tumbling. Then, after a small pick-up in March, buying collapsed to almost nothing - yet stock markets have experienced one of their strongest rallies.
> 
> Of course company managers, like everyone else, are unsettled by violent short-term market moves, and sometimes zig when they should zag. But the past decade suggests that insider buying is a poor long-term predictor of stock market performance as well. Insiders bought shares going into the 2000 to 2002 bear market. When stock markets did finally trough, they sold when they should have bought. They then continued to sell into the five-year bull run that followed.
> 
> Theoretically, insiders should only buy their company's stock if they are confident of a return. The drought of current purchases therefore suggests insiders believe the market is overheated. They may be right, although a decade of experience indicates it may just be a case of the blind leading the blind.
> 
> (Copyright Financial Times Ltd. 2009. All rights reserved.)


@larry81 blabla DOW 20,000 blabla corporate earnings bla revisions are a myth blabla permabull blabla


----------



## dogcom

Larry81 I have a feeling you have put a lot of money into the market and now don't want to hear about the bear. You could be right and somehow all these debt problems continue to be pushed away and we go up and up. But just as easily the train could come off the tracks around the world and Dow 3800 or something could occur.

If I have learned anything since 2008 it is that anything is possible so keep a good portion of money safe in case the worst does come to pass. On the other hand I was to bearish since 2007 and sure I didn't take much of a hit in the crash but I did miss some of the great rally since the bottom.


----------



## larry81

dogcom said:


> Larry81 I have a feeling you have put a lot of money into the market and now don't want to hear about the bear. You could be right and somehow all these debt problems continue to be pushed away and we go up and up. But just as easily the train could come off the tracks around the world and Dow 3800 or something could occur.
> 
> If I have learned anything since 2008 it is that anything is possible so keep a good portion of money safe in case the worst does come to pass. On the other hand I was to bearish since 2007 and sure I didn't take much of a hit in the crash but I did miss some of the great rally since the bottom.


I don't ignore any information, it is just that the board overall sentiment toward the almighty market is bear++, just trying to cheer it up a little bit


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> @larry81 blabla DOW 20,000 blabla corporate earnings bla revisions are a myth blabla permabull blabla


is DOW20K the new DOW36K !


----------



## Argonaut

Pretty obvious 100 point spread on the S&P 500. Buy at 1120, sell above 1200. Until the market breaks above or below those numbers, the future is uncertain. Depends what kind of news we get.


----------



## ddkay

I heard there's a saying on Wall Street - sell Rosh, buy Kippur. Happy Jewish New Year.

What's your prediction for tomorrow? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> What's your prediction for tomorrow?


Pain.


----------



## Jungle

Not a lot of confidence in resolving this Greek debt situation. Some are still calling for some more downturn.


----------



## el oro

Some are definitely still expecting a downturn. The action and, more importantly, the close for this week will give an indication of how the rest of the year will play out. This is due to Friday being the end of the week, month and quarter.


----------



## ddkay

The street thinks Greece defaults this weekend and the new quarter allows banks time to paint over losses


----------



## Cal

I wish they would do a controlled default or something...this is a little ridiculous.

I also wish they would rebuilld their tax system and enforce it. I haven't read any articles on that, if anyone has any posts regarding what the Greeks are actually doing to resolve their rampant problem of citizens tax avoidance, that would be appreciated.

(and I don't mean to pick on the Greeks, they have company, it's just that the Greeks are in the media spotlight right now)


----------



## ddkay

Laffer curve.. you can only tax so much before people purposefully evade or abandon the country. This was one of the reasons the Roman Empire fell.

The latest tax increase was on property Greek Vote Approves a Despised Property Tax



> The tax, which will apply to 5.5 million homeowners — or about 80 percent of Greek households — will cost the average family 800 to 1,500 euros (about $1,045 to $2,041) a year, depending on the location and size of their property. With unemployment at 16 percent, and average income only about 26,000 euros, it is unclear how many households will be willing or able to pay.


----------



## el oro

The sooner the better. Letting Greece default will be a step in the right direction.


----------



## KaeJS

I have nothing of value to add, but I'm going to agree with Cal and $1600, the sooner they get this over with, the better.


----------



## Cal

The taxes there aren't so much the problem, the wide spread tax evasion, and lack of enforcement of taxation is.


----------



## ddkay

If citizens had a government they could trust (and its clear to me that they don't, they just see corruption), more people would pay taxes. Their political system needs a reset.


----------



## Argonaut

Default. Return of the drachma. Wouldn't mind visiting the Greek isles on the cheap. Athens is a bit of a suckhole and only worth visiting for the Parthenon. And even it is ruined by reconstruction equipment.


----------



## larry81

I personally blame the unions and the bloated government for greece failure.


----------



## ddkay

From a July issue of The New Yorker: http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/07/11/110711ta_talk_surowiecki#ixzz1ZHuQhOZ



> Greece’s parliamentary democracy was established fairly recently, and is of shaky legitimacy: it’s seen as a vehicle for special interests, and dedicated mainly to its own preservation. The tax system had long confirmed this view, since it was riddled with loopholes and exemptions: not only doctors but also singers and athletes were given favorable rates, while shipping tycoons paid no income tax at all, and members of other professions were legally allowed to underreport their income. Inevitably, if a hefty chunk of the population is cheating on its taxes, people who don’t (or can’t, because of the way their income is reported) feel that they’re being abused.
> 
> The result has been a vicious circle: because tax evasion is so common, people trust the system less, which makes them less willing to pay taxes. And, because so many don’t chip in, the government has had to raise taxes on those who do. That only increases the incentive to cheat, since there tends to be a correlation between higher tax rates and higher rates of tax evasion.
> Even while dealing with protests and open riots, the new Greek government is trying to change things. It is rationalizing its tax-collection system. It has simplified taxes and done away with some of the loopholes. And it has stepped up its enforcement efforts in ways large and small—tax officials have, for instance, been sending helicopters over affluent neighborhoods looking for swimming pools, as evidence of underreported wealth. These efforts have made some difference: the self-employed seem to be reporting more of their income, and the evaders have had to step up their game. (There’s now a burgeoning market in camouflage swimming-pool covers.)
> 
> But a social inclination toward tax evasion, once established, is hard to eradicate. One fascinating study, by the economist Martin Halla, showed that tax morale among second-generation American immigrants reflected their country of origin. And getting tough can backfire. Research suggests that overemphasizing enforcement can actually weaken tax morale, by making taxpaying seem less like a freely chosen part of the social contract.
> 
> The reason tax reform will be such a tall order for Greece, in sum, is that it requires more than a policy shift; it requires a cultural shift. Pulling that off would be quite a feat. But the future of the European Union may depend on it.


----------



## ddkay

I really feel like tomorrow is doomsday, but I could always be wrong.



> Sep 28, 2:54 PM EDT
> *Greek official: Ability to pay new taxes exhausted*
> By DEREK GATOPOULOS
> 
> ATHENS, Greece (AP) -- *Greece has "exhausted" its ability to pay more taxes to cover budget gaps, the deputy prime minister declared Wednesday, saying he himself can't pay a new emergency tax without selling property.*
> 
> Theodoros Pangalos spoke as the debt-shackled nation faced fresh strikes and braced for another inspection by international creditors, starting Thursday, to decide whether to continue the vital bailout loan payouts.
> 
> Parliament approved a new emergency property tax Tuesday to be added to electricity bills later this year, as Greece remains under strong international pressure to abide by its painful deficit-cutting targets. Greece will go bankrupt by mid-October if it does not get an expected euro8 billion ($11 billion) loan.
> 
> "I believe that the tax limits of Greek society have been exhausted. I would say they have been exhausted for some time," Pangalos told private Mega television.
> 
> *Pangalos, a 73-year-old Sorbonne-trained economist, is listed as owner or part-owner of eight properties and farmland in greater Athens and several other parts of Greece.*
> 
> *"The property I own was purely obtained through inheritance. Personally, I have never bought anything ... I will be obliged to sell some of these properties. There is nothing else I can do," Pangalos said.*
> 
> *Greeks have been outraged by the announcement of new austerity measures, including pension cuts and the new property tax, coming after more than a year of spending cuts and tax hikes.*
> 
> In Athens, another 24-hour public transport strike Wednesday left commuters struggling to reach work, as unions lashed out against the austerity measures that the Socialist government hopes will get it access to crucial loans.
> 
> The strike left Athens without buses, subway services, taxis and trams. Customs and tax office workers were also on strike, while about 350 retirees demonstrated outside the Finance Ministry against the latest pension cuts and tax increases.
> 
> *The heads of Greece's international debt inspectors are due back in Athens on Thursday to complete a review of the government's cost-cutting program.*
> 
> International creditors have urged Greece's Socialist government to make deeper cuts in public payroll costs instead of repeatedly raising taxes.
> 
> Late Wednesday, more than 1,000 protesters from a Communist-backed labor union demonstrated outside the Finance Ministry, urging Greeks not to pay emergency property tax bills being sent to households this fall. Protesters burned copies of the tax notices during the peaceful rally.
> 
> "We're against workers paying even one euro for this situation," Iota Tavoulari from the union of pharmaceutical workers told The Associated Press.
> 
> *"We know very well that none of the money from all the (loan) installments, received after really slaughtering the rights of workers, is going to support the workers. Not one euro to salaries, not one euro to pensions, and not one euro to social welfare," she said. "It is being paid to those who caused this crisis."*


----------



## Eder

I don't think anyone believes Greece won't default. I hope it is sooner rather than later.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I wouldn't visit during such times, Argo.
There is probably a lot of anti-foreigner sentiment there right now.
I bet right now they are blaming all foreigners as responsible for their troubles.
Doesn't help when pretty much every other country across the globe is telling them what they should do and shouldn't do.
The protests are angry and violent...not a good time to visit.


----------



## Belguy

I hear that the Greeks are mad at the Germans. Shouldn't this be the other way around?

After Greece defaults, which Southern European country will be next--Italy perhaps?

I think that, if I were a German voter, I would give a resounding 'no' to any more money for Greece but maybe I am oversimplifying a more complicated situation.

In any event, I never thought that the quality of my retirement depended on what would ultimately happen to Greece and the fact that nobody pays their taxes over there and everybody wants to retire at 50 with a full pension.

I don't pretend to understand it. It's all Greek to me!!

Pleasant dreams!! I'm going to bed and dream about a surging stock market--not that that happens very often!!

Tomorrow might be interesting!!


----------



## ddkay

I'm screening for some setups to short. So far I like FNSR, BIDU, FSV.TO.

I wish it was as simple as picking the companies you hate most. I would get so much pleasure from shorting BCE into oblivion. Bell company has enraged me with crappy and unfairly priced internet since I was 12 years old.


----------



## Eder

I doubt shorting BCE would be prudent. I hate Bell, but the reason I hate them is why they are so profitable.
I own 1500 of them but still I hate them...as I hate Rodgers, and I think I hate Telus more than either.

(I love Canadian Tire, but I won't buy their stock)


----------



## KaeJS

Hong Kong closes the market due to a Typhoon.

Tomorrow is going to be whacked.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Hong Kong closes the market due to a Typhoon.
> 
> Tomorrow is going to be whacked.


US futures are positive, also the German parliament will hold a crucial vote today on whether to approve an extension of powers for the eurozone's financial rescue fund.

I am ready for the ride !


----------



## KaeJS

US futures at 1am don't mean anything. Could just as easily be red by 9am.

It's all dependent on Ze Germans.


----------



## ddkay

It's easy to pull wool over the eyes of Americans/Canadians, our voting base are stereotypical pushovers. Germans are very politically cognizant, this could turn ugly tomorrow. I'm still waiting for that breakout on the VIX to confirm my C&H pattern, a political breakdown tomorrow would do that.


----------



## dcaron

*German parliament passed a beefed-up rescue fund w/large majority*

BERLIN — The German parliament passed a beefed-up rescue fund for stricken eurozone countries by a large majority Thursday in a vote seen as crucial to stem financial market turmoil.

The vote before the Bundestag lower house on expanding the 440-billion-euro ($599 billion) bailout fund was also seen as a crucial test of Chancellor Angela Merkel's authority amid fears of a major backbench rebellion.

Among the 611 deputies present, 523 approved the measure, 85 voted against it and three abstained.

It was not immediately clear whether Merkel relied on votes from opposition MPs to secure her majority, as an official headcount continued.

Traders and European partners had been on tenterhooks ahead of the vote as Germany, the eurozone paymaster, became the 11th country among the 17 using the euro to agree to boost the scope and size of the fund, called the EFSF.

Opening the lively, at times fraught debate, Volker Kauder, who heads Merkel's parliamentary group of conservatives, said it was a pivotal moment in the spiralling eurozone debt crisis.

"Today in the Bundestag, we have an important decision for the future of our country and for the future of Europe," he said, as he called on rebels within the centre-right coalition to toe the line.

© Copyright (c) AFP


----------



## humble_pie

sidebars to stories are often interesting & today's sidebar in the streets of athens is no exception. Demonstrators are in full flight, denouncing the aid package & shouting Bailouts Go Home.

one wonders how come they don't realize that the alternative - if greece is abandoned - will be far worse for them.


----------



## Belguy

Just a few short months ago, the Canadian dollar reached and surpassed par with the U.S. greenback. As I recall, most of the pundits were then predicting that "this time the Loonie would remain above par for a long time given all of the problems in the U.S."

Well, here we are just a short time later and the Canadian dollar is hovering around the 97/96 cent range against the U.S. dollar. Most of the pundits were wrong again.

However, never discouraged, they are still at it! Now, BMO is predicting our dollar to be worth approximately 93 cents U.S. by the end of the year before rising above par again next year.

This leaves me wondering how anyone can run a business in Canada that either imports or exports significant volumes of goods from or to the U.S. when there is so much currency volatility and often in a matter of just a few days?

Is there any solution to this ongoing problem?


----------



## atrp2biz

Hedging.

90% of expected foreign revenues/costs over next year.
75% of expected foreign revenues/costs 1-2 years out.
50% of expected foreign revenues/costs 2-3 years out.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy, you should stop listening to experts. The ones featured in the media are making bold but often useless forecasts. The ones making worthwhile forecasts are not telling riff-raff like us.


----------



## Belguy

CC, how would you categorize the 'experts' who are making predictions on this forum?


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

You shouldn't be investing based on their predictions either. I don't.


----------



## dogcom

The experts don't know and are just making their best guess belguy. In the period of debt turmoil we are now entering the US dollar should do better as the sh-t hits the fan and then sell off as rallies and recoveries happen. So a roller coaster if you will so it is very hard for an expert to guess exactly where we will be on the roller coaster.

Humble pie I am thinking that everything should be abandoned the US included and let the debt and all the crap wash away. It will be a very difficult but short period as the markets price it all in and then we start over again. All this intervention will just keep us in this secular bear market until they can intervene no more and everything still gets washed out.


----------



## zylon

I'll jump in here and make a forecast.

I predict that the grandchildren and great grandchildren of those who lived through the 30s will not be so proud as to ignore a dirty penny lying in the street. They will discover the values which their elders tried in vain to pass on to the next generation.

Those in the boomer generation have often joked about dying broke and the last cheque to the undertaker being of the rubber variety. The children of those boomers won't find it so funny, having to look after mum in her final years (no one knows where dad is) after seeing how she squandered her high wages on cruises to Alaska, flights for 10 day stays in Greece, and useless trinkets from Walmart.

These youngsters of today will pick up that penny, learn how to value a piece of gold, will use hydroponics to grow veggies, and will form co-ops to buy 40 acre plots of productive land.

And perhaps most importantly, they will come to see the advantages of giving 10% of their wealth to others in society.


----------



## humble_pie

dogcom getting it over with will not be like a simple load of laundry plus bleach.

i don't know to what extent the global dispossessed already have significant weapons. That they'll riot is for sure. Already in some countries they're decapitating people & worse. Hundreds of thousands of women all over the planet are being systematically raped, murdered, even stoned in public. I've lost track of which countries have nuclear weapons.

even 25 years ago the rioting in US cities could be contained. Now i think the capacity for armed violence has gone past the point of no return. Just mho.

the alternative - printing money, extending the status quo - seems very, very slightly less toxic to me


----------



## humble_pie

_" The ones making worthwhile forecasts are not telling riff-raff like us."_

love it !

but i suppose a riff can address a raff down here in the squalorous pits, though ?

belguy i don't think you should wait until january to do any 50/50 balancing thing. I truly believe you could full speed ahead to 60/40 because the anxiety level is unbearable, even for rickrack.


----------



## ddkay

Austerity works great, they'll meet their targets in no time



> Helena Smith in Athens
> guardian.co.uk, Thursday 29 September 2011 18.59 BST
> 
> Greek public-sector workers lock out international financial inspectors
> 
> International experts with the task of compiling a crucial review of Greece's fiscal progress ran into trouble before they could even start the job as public-sector workers protesting against wage cuts, layoffs and higher taxes locked them out of office buildings.
> 
> *Inspectors from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank were greeted on Thursday with banners deploring the "barbaric measures" the so-called "troika" has meted out in exchange for propping up the moribund Greek economy. At the finance ministry – the hub of talks between the debt-stricken country and creditors – protesters shouted "take your bailout and leave" and prevented auditors from entering the building.*
> 
> *"We are sending a loud message to the government and the European Union that we have reached our limits, that it is the workers in our country and especially workers in the public domain who have carried the burden [of cost-cutting policies]," said Costas Tsikrikas, president of Adedy, the union of civil servants.*
> 
> Following the socialist government's announcement of a new wave of austerity measures last week, the total drop in purchasing power for public-sector employees would exceed 50%, he added.
> 
> It was an embarrassing start to discussions that had been suspended in a row over missed budget targets earlier this month. The monitors' review is critical to Greece receiving the further aid needed if it is to avert bankruptcy.
> 
> The government, in a step that highlighted lenders' distrust of Greece over a year after it secured €110bn (£95bn) in rescue funds, had been required to outline new deficit cuts in a letter to the EU and IMF before the inspectors agreed to return. The written assurance is believed to have contained a promise that the country would push ahead with privatisations.
> 
> But the surprise sit-ins, which began with civil servants declaring that they had taken over six ministries at 7am, meant that Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, was forced to hold the talks on the 2012 budget elsewhere. *"The measures being pursued by the government are totally counter-productive. It is obvious to everyone that they have failed … all they have achieved is the impoverishment of Greeks," said a member of Adedy's executive board. "These occupations are symbolic but what is not is our determination to overturn policies that have driven us into deadlock. In the last two years 300,000 small and medium-sized businesses have closed and by December we estimate there will be one and a half million unemployed. That's one person per family."*
> 
> Unions, including Adedy, which represents more than 800,000 civil servants have vowed to step up resistance to the measures. A general strike and other protests have been planned for October.


----------



## ddkay

George Soros wrote a note with a possible proposal to avoid another Great Depression this morning: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/soros72/English

Officials have already agreed they need to "spin off" Greece and force 50-70% writedowns on bondholders, all stop-gap measures are just buying as much time as possible.

Whatever is chosen policy makers have to make sure they don't violate the Maastricht Treaty's no bail-out clause.

As long as growth dissipates debt problems will not go away. No one knows how to address the growth problem yet, they're still writing a framework that will support that type of environment. The type of austerity currently imposed on Greece is never going to work though, ever.


----------



## larry81

zylon said:


> These youngsters of today will pick up that penny, learn how to value a piece of gold, will use hydroponics to grow veggies, and will form co-ops to buy 40 acre plots of productive land.


hippy forecasting !


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

humble_pie said:


> I truly believe you could full speed ahead to 60/40 because the anxiety level is unbearable, even for rickrack.


I think so too. If the asset allocation needs to be changed better to do it ASAP. Of course, I have no idea where stock markets are headed, so don't blame me if stocks head higher!


----------



## andrewf

If everyone tried to grow their own food, the world would starve. There is a reason we have professional farmers.


----------



## fatcat

> Belguy, you should stop listening to experts. The ones featured in the media are making bold but often useless forecasts. The ones making worthwhile forecasts are not telling riff-raff like us.


cc, i would really like to know who you are talking about ? ... can you give me some names ? ... i have formed the impression that for every expert that says the market will go up, there will be another guy with equally impeccable credentials who is certain it will go down ... (you might have been speaking with tongue in cheek)

ddkay, it's hard not to read soros paper and not spin conspiracy theories about one-world government ... sovereignty looks to become a thing of the past as we all worship at the feet of the large banks (by which i mean cede our sovereignty and our tax dollars to backstop their shitty decisions conducted in $3000 dollar a night hotel rooms)


----------



## larry81

Mandatory lecture:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1139732


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

fatcat said:


> ... can you give me some names ? ...


Just a few months back Pimco's Bill Gross was making the media rounds telling everyone why US Treasuries are for suckers. Since then bonds have rallied sharply.

Yesterday, BMO's call that the dollar will fall to 93 cents was the headline news on CBC. 

No balancing views were presented in either instance.


----------



## fatcat

> Just a few months back Pimco's Bill Gross was making the media rounds telling everyone why US Treasuries are for suckers. Since then bonds have rallied sharply.
> 
> Yesterday, BMO's call that the dollar will fall to 93 cents was the headline news on CBC.
> 
> No balancing views were presented in either instance.


 right, i listen to bloomberg podcasts a lot ... i like tom and ken ... they have on their shows some pretty "in the trenches" guys from all over the world (including gross and many other of the heavyweights) and if you listen long enough you will go slightly nuts because you will get diametrically opposing views presented with absolute authority ... in the end, we are stuck with making up our own minds i think 

and yes, gross's call which was not made in whispered tones but rather well and loudly announced will go down as one of the spectacular mis-calls of all time (so far, at least)


----------



## Belguy

There is a program concerning so-called experts on CBC TV tonight at 9 pm EDT
which might be worth a look.

I'll change channels as soon as O'Reilly is over.


----------



## ddkay

So most academic research is wrong, Einstein's theory of relativity is probably wrong, economists are mostly wrong, businesses that sell certainty are inherently wrong, you're ordinarily wrong, I'm conventionally wrong, we're all essentially wrong! Great piece by the CBC. Humans don't like chaos.

"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

@ddkay: The CBC show did not go into details of Philip Tetlock's research which found that the useless forecasts that are worse than a coin flip are those made by TV pundits. Fortunately, there are experts worth listening to. It's just that they don't get much air time. They are the ones who talk in terms of probabilities and like to layout multiple scenarios that could play out. Of course, the media won't interview them because they are looking for sound bites and viewers are interested in definitive answers. Speaking of probabilities sounds like waffling to listeners. It's all very depressing but that's how media works.


----------



## dubmac

CanadianCapitalist;87393 Fortunately said:


> who?..


----------



## HaroldCrump

As an example of what CC said, "experts" that truly predicted the US RE crisis and profited from it, were never profiled in the media.
They were, and still remain, largely unknown to the common public.
Yet these people saw it coming as early as 2004 - 2005 and made their bets early enough to profit hugely later.
Michael Lewis' book _The Big Short_ profiles some of these elusive investors.

Most of the talking heads on TV are parroting herd mentality, already known, irrelevant information.
Those that have seen what others haven't, aint telling nobody.


----------



## ddkay

The media will pull random people off the sidewalk for an opinion on anything. Financial media "experts" are those same people, but they were invited into the studio and put on a suit.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/cnbc-anyone-who-owns-a-suit-can-come-on-television,6846/


----------



## ddkay

BNN interviewed Stephen Jarislowsky tonight http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip540339

He says he's averaging down on some stocks he bought at higher prices. He doesn't sound fazed by the idea of BNP or other European banks failing because they have deposits, despite headlines lately like Siemens closing out accounts and transferring billions to the ECB. He doesn't think financials or insurance companies are a good investment after Operation Twist. He's particularly worried about Manulife. He's not too hot on RIM. He likes consumer staples. He's pro the reintroduction of Glass-Steagall. Pro tar sands. Anti crazy CEO compensation.


----------



## Eder

ddkay said:


> So most academic research is wrong, Einstein's theory of relativity is probably wrong,


The bartender says"We don't serve neutrino scum in here!"

A neutrino walks into a bar...


----------



## ddkay

Haha good one ^^ 

What's happening in the triple Q's?



> Micron Technology Inc. (MU), the largest U.S. maker of computer-memory chips, swung to a loss on weak demand for personal computers. The net loss was $135 million, or 14 cents per share, compared with a profit $342 million, or 32 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter ended September 1 fell 14% to $2.14 billion. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated profit of 2 cents on sales of $2.11 billion.
> 
> The price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) dropped sharply as supply increased and demand from manufacturers of laptops and desktop PCs was weak.
> 
> The MU report follows on the heels of several earnings warnings from analog chip makers such as Texas Instruments (TXN) Altera (ALTR) and Fairchild Semiconductor International (FCS).
> 
> Semiconductor demand is often a good leading gauge of economic activity because of the ubiquity of these devices in the goods and services consumed in today’s economy. Declining orders for semiconductors means that producers of final goods are experiencing and/or projecting weaker sales.
> 
> Recent reports that Apple (AAPL) has cut orders to major suppliers by 25% is another source for concern. Many analysts have speculated out that Apple’s cuts may not necessarily be indicative of weak final demand. However, when coupled with reports from other companies, the hypothesis that global demand for consumer electronics is weakening is gaining momentum.


----------



## ddkay

Eastman Kodak (EK) is going bankrupt. They employed 18,800 in 2010.


----------



## Jungle

Shareholders are begging Kodak to sell now, before they have nothing.


----------



## Homerhomer

Jungle said:


> Shareholders are begging Kodak to sell now, before they have nothing.


The shareholders have 40 years of data infront of their eyes telling them that this is dog with fleas, they had enough time to admit to the mistake and get out, not like this is out of a blue fraud that nobody expected. If one takes a gamble hoping for a turn around story, one has to expect to be burned once in a while.


----------



## Belguy

Some say to only invest in companies who pay a dividend with a history of increasing that dividend and which you are confident will be around for a long time.

Sometimes, getting that last part right can be a bit of a challenge!!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-plunge-on-restructuring-talk/article2186691/


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Some say to only invest in companies who pay a dividend with a history of increasing that dividend and which you are confident will be around for a long time.
> 
> Sometimes, getting that last part right can be a bit of a challenge!!!
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-plunge-on-restructuring-talk/article2186691/


Did Kodak have a history of increasing dividends? Is it a dividend aristocrat?!


----------



## gibor365

BTW, after hours EK is up 41%


----------



## gibor365

_Three Reasons to Be a 90-Day Bull
by Andrew Snyder, Editorial Director, Insiders Strategy Group
Dear Reader,
I'm excited. The next three months look like moneymakers. Don't get me wrong... Our country is plummeting downhill faster than a fat kid on a scooter. But for the next 90 days or so, we've got a shot at profits. 
Here's why. 
Over the past 66 years, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 7.2% during the final three months of the year. What's more, the so-called Santa Claus rally has sent stock higher four out of five years since 1945.
The odds are in our favor, but not everybody is convinced. So here are three reasons to put on your bull horns... at least for the next three months.
First... earnings. It's a subject we don't hear much about these days. After all, there are bigger worries. Europe is melting down. Unemployment won't budge. GDP growth is down to a mere rounding error.
You name it, it's in the crapper.
But let's not forget what we're doing here. When we buy a stock, we're not placing a bet on Angela Merkel's monetary mood or Washington's latest crisis. No, we are buying a very real stake in a company's profit stream. 
We're spending $10 or $20 or $45 per share to put our hand under its cash-flow spigot -- the quicker the flow increases, the higher our profit potential.
With that in mind, let see what Mr. Market expects from the upcoming earnings season. The magic number is 15% -- Wall Street expects corporate Q3 earnings to jump by 15% from the same time last year.
Given the dire news over the past six weeks, investors don't have high hopes. A 15% boost in profits sounds like a lofty goal. 
Let's compare it to a blind date. 
When our lonesome single rings the doorbell, his heart is pounding. Will she? Or won't she? Bow-wow or ayoooga? 
We won't know until the door swings open. But history shows -- going back to stocks now -- she's not all that bad. 
For a peek at what may be behind our Q3 earnings door, we turn to McCormick (MKC:NYSE). It gave us a glimpse at its books on Wednesday. 
Guess what... surprise. Income rose by 16%, easily beating consensus estimates. 
Better yet, the spice maker is not alone. UBS just took a look at 19 companies that reported earnings since Aug. 1. On average, they beat earnings estimates by 3%. 
If the trend continues, it's reason No. 1 to be bullish for the next three months.


The second reason is much simpler... the game is rigged. 
Over at Insiders Strategic Review (our private daily note to subscribers) we've hit on the subject time and time again. 
In fact, yesterday we covered the politicization of the Fed -- how Bernanke has sent his troops to all four corners of the country to campaign for his free-money policy.
But now, it gets worse. 
Rick Perry's bid for the White House is using the Fed to its political advantage. If the Texan makes it to Washington, he swears Bernanke is out of a job. 
It is bad news for Big Ben (... and the printing press industry), but good news for investors. 
As long as the money boss is fighting to keep his job, he can't manipulate the economy. From here through the election, we won't hear much from the Fed. It's too risky. 
That's good news... As we saw last week, when Bernanke talks, the market walks.
The Fed takes us to our final point.
Thanks to Bernanke's ultra-low interest rates, the companies that make up the S&P 500 are sitting on a huge wad of cash -- some $976 billion. As risks loom, the best way they can use that money is to buy their own shares. 
Warren Buffett is not the only one doing it. In fact, stock buybacks have been on the rise for eight straight quarters. 
During this year's second quarter, the companies that make up the S&P 500 went on a buying spree -- shelling out $109 billion to get their own shares. It's 41% more then they spent during the same time last year and a 22% jump over this year's first quarter.
For old-school value investors (those were the days), it is a clear sign the people that know their shares best believe their stock is undervalued. 
Until that cash starts heading in other directions, it's our third reason to be bullish.
Like I said at the top, we're still in trouble... big trouble. But don't let the long-term view overshadow the short-term opportunity. 
As we've seen over the past 16 months, the situation in Europe will take a long, long time to come to a head. And America could be the land of debt for at least another generation... or two. 
Remember, history shows 80% of the time the fourth quarter is a strong winner. We've got the ingredients for an end-of-the-year blowout. I'm excited.
From the Inside,
Andrew Snyder
Editorial Director
Insiders Strategy Group

_


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> BTW, after hours EK is up 41%


52% just a second ago. 

Opening price on Monday will be interesting.


----------



## Homerhomer

Belguy said:


> Some say to only invest in companies who pay a dividend with a history of increasing that dividend and which you are confident will be around for a long time.
> 
> Sometimes, getting that last part right can be a bit of a challenge!!!
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-plunge-on-restructuring-talk/article2186691/


Kodak completely eliminated dividends in 2009 after cutting it in 2003, did not increase it between 98 and 01, had barely increased dividends in the ninetees all while enjoying inconsistent earnings with many years of losses (sorry but I don't have time to go back even further, but stock price in the 20 years prior doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy about that period in the company history either).

This company has terrible dividend record for at least 20 years, your analogy doesn't apply at all. The once who say to only invest in companies who pay dividends and have history of increases it wouldn't touch it and would sell it when they cut it first time or when they realized there is no earnings growth to support the dividend or it's growth.
In this case it was easy to get it right, the writing was on the wall, only blind wouldn't see it.

Mind you it can still be turn around story (but it has nothing to do with dividend growth,) stranger things have happened (this may be your next Apple).

ps, as a hobby photographer I can attest they were great with brownies and had some fantastic camera films, but suck in digital ;-)


----------



## Belguy

To some of you new investors out there, who are less experienced that some of we more seasoned investors, and are therefore more prone to panic when the markets drop, know that, with time, certainty will return to the markets:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...s-in-an-era-of-economic-doubt/article2187185/

Also, what do you think of this idea in lieu of an annuity for a retired dude such as your humble contributor??

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...fit/article2186759/singlepage/#articlecontent


----------



## ddkay

How about Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI-N)?

They're a dividend aristocrat, almost 8% yield, best in the industry, trying to find new revenue streams, positive return on assets, low P/E. Why is their stock down over 50% the last 10 years?


----------



## Argonaut

Shrinking revenue; business that is becoming obsolete. Wouldn't even touch it if I was playing with your money. Calling it the YLO of the NYSE would be an insult, but not as far off the mark as one would think.

MCD, CAT, IBM, and CVX are my favourite US stocks that grow their dividends. Used to like PG and KO, but I think the best times are behind them. What's common with these is that you can't find stocks like them in Canada.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> How about Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI-N)?


They just never recovered from the 08-09 crash.

If it stays fairly stable around the $20, then it's decent - but you'd have to have faith its going to stay around $20, and I'm not sure I do.

Definitely an attractive yield. I think its one of those stocks you might get away with buying in at say, $19, reaping 7% dividends for a year, and then selling it at $20 and don't touch it again or you might get suckered into losing your principal...


----------



## fatcat

belguy, why not put together your own income fund and save the large mer that most take right off the top .... ?

like build a bond ladder or buy some of the new bmo targeted bond funds and some reits, some preferreds, a little bit of high yield bonds, some dividend funds

as i recall you are 67 which is much too young for a decent annuity (i stand to be corrected on that)


----------



## Toronto.gal

fatcat said:


> as i recall you are 67 which is much too young for a decent annuity (i stand to be corrected on that)


"From an investor's perspective, the optimal strategy is to postpone annuitization till 70 or 75..."

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/annuity+puzzler/5417390/story.html


----------



## sags

That seems counterintuitive, given that most people take their CPP early in order to collect it longer.

Wouldn't it be better to take the annuity earlier and delay the CPP?


----------



## ddkay

I wonder how many yield crazies took out a HELOC and put it into YLO


----------



## ddkay

Just some perspective


----------



## zylon

*who will collapse first*

snip:


> "All of the foreign central banks hold US government bonds, not actually physical dollars, but they actually hold bonds as a reserve. So the reserve currency is not something that is going to crack first. You have to understand that because if the dollar were to be the first thing to collapse, the rest of the world has to go with it." ~Martin Armstrong
> 
> The King World News interview with Martin Armstrong is incredibly powerful. This was a man who at one time sat atop the financial world and who, to this very day, world leaders still go to for counsel. Armstrong covered currencies, gold and much, much more. The KWN interview with Martin Armstrong will be available shortly ...
> 
> kingworldnews


----------



## Assetologist

Thanks ddkay! Very interesting.


----------



## Belguy

Well, the end of the third quarter sees the TSX index down 13.53% YTD and the S&P 500 index down 10.04% YTD.

Will we make those losses back in the remaining quarter of the year?


----------



## ddkay

No


----------



## Eder

ddkay said:


> No


Or yes


----------



## bigcake

no way to get back


----------



## dogcom

I would say no and yes. Yes because it is possible to get a great rally going especially in bear markets as they suck in the crowd. But most likely the answer is no because there is still so much bad news that can hit the market from just about anywhere that may or may not be priced in by the market.


----------



## Spidey

Nobody can predict markets but I take the negativity that I seem to be hearing from most analysts as a very positive sign. That means that much of the fear is likely built into current prices. The worst crashes seem to follow long periods of euphoria or oblivion.


----------



## doctrine

Who knows if the market is going to go up next quarter or next year, but the TSX and S&P are both trading at very reasonable levels. Few people would say there is a bubble pricing mentality in the markets, so I would say keep buying!


----------



## larry81

buy low... sell high !


----------



## sags

It took awhile for market sentiment to change from bullish on "negative news that wasn't as bad as it could have been", to bearish on the realization that bad statistics do matter.

It could take awhile to reverse sentiment, unless a steady stream of good news is expected.

For me, I wonder in the grand scheme of things, where the overall "grand plan" is that will change course for the economy.

What will be the impetus for the economy in the future?

A return of manufacturing? New business sectors?................

It is hard to envision right now, with nothing in particular on the horizon of discovery. 

The one Ace in the hole, is infrastructure spending.

High speed transit, water and sewer services need upgrading. Roads and bridges, flood control..........lots of projects could be developed.........but the political will to take a chance and spend the amount of money needed, just doesn't seem to be there.

Of one thing I am certain.

Simply cutting spending isn't the solution.


----------



## Belguy

Can anyone tell me what you make of this message that I received when visiting this website:

http://safebrowsing.clients.google....w.canadianmoneyforum.com/forumdisplay.php?f=3

Yesterday, this message appeared with different content as follows:

What is the current listing status for canadianmoneyforum.com? Site is listed as suspicious--visiting this web site may harm your computer.

What happened when Google visited this site?
Of the 18 pages we tested on the site over the past 90 days, 3 pages resulted in malicious software being downloaded and installed without user consent. The last time Google visited this site was on 2011-10-01 and the last time suspicious content was found on this site was on 2011-10-01.

Malicious software includes 3 exploits, 2 trojans. Successful infection resulted in an average of 12 new processes on the target machine.

Malicious software is hosted on 1 domain, oorqqqq.cx.cc/.

1 domain appears to be functioning as intermediaries for distributing malware to visitors of this site, including financeads.ca/.

This site was hosted on 1 network including AS25847 (SERVINT).

How did this happen? In some cases, third parties can add malicious code to legitimate sites, which would cause us to show this warning message.

If you are the owner of this web site, you can request a review of your site using Google Webmaster Tools. More information about the review process is available in Google's Webmaster Help.

----Yesterday was the first and only time that I have received such a message from Google while accessing Canadianmoneyforum.com

Has anyone else received this and what should we do?


----------



## Montyswe

Yes, I have. My antivirus software have been warning me everytime when I go to this site (the last days).


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

See this thread for reports on Malware discussion:

http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=8908

We are good now. The offending code was removed as a precaution and we are not putting back the code until the security hole is patched.


----------



## Belguy

Thanks, CC! It is good to see that you are on top of it and to receive reassurance that the site is being kept safe to use.


----------



## fatcat

for myself, i think we are headed lower ...

i hear more and more reports about corporate earnings being revised downward and downward again which would make today's bargains look somewhat less rosy

it's all about debt and i see no solution (assuming one is even possible) in sight ... the west is drowning in debt

the efsf is raising only about 500B which many people think is far too little, and should be closer to 2T

the american consumer is tapped and maxed and unemployed

i don't see where the upside will come from

somebody tell me why i am dead wrong please ...


----------



## Homerhomer

fatcat said:


> for myself, i think we are headed lower ...
> 
> i hear more and more reports about corporate earnings being revised downward and downward again which would make today's bargains look somewhat less rosy
> 
> it's all about debt and i see no solution (assuming one is even possible) in sight ... the west is drowning in debt
> 
> the efsf is raising only about 500B which many people think is far too little, and should be closer to 2T
> 
> the american consumer is tapped and maxed and unemployed
> 
> i don't see where the upside will come from
> 
> somebody tell me why i am dead wrong please ...


I see what you see.


----------



## zylon

and just think ... these times will be looked back on as "the good old days".






____________________
things are never so bad they can't get worse!


----------



## Belguy

Yes, at some point in the future, we may indeed consider these the 'good ole days'!!

Economist Chystia Freeland said today on CNN that "one of the world's three major currencies may not survive and that is a really big deal".

Who'd ever thunk that it could ever come to this!!


----------



## donald

Im seriously starting to wonder if its even worth the risks(even for a fairly younger person)investing as a whole.

Im starting to believe what mark cuban thinks about the market,i looked @ it last year as a wealth generating machine and figured id put my money on a few soild companies and like buffets advice buy a cross section of american and hold,maybe ive stepped "in" @ the worst time(march/11)i know this is a marathon and not a sprint but this enviroment is nothing like i imagined.

Belguy:If you were 32,had a 130k @ this present moment in the market with blue chips multi-nationals ,that pay a dividend,would you close out your position?from what you know now?Gotta be honest this doom and gloom is getting to me,every where a guy turns it more **** on top of ****.How many of you expierenced investors out here if you could go back would turn your back on the market?Can anyone say it was one of there best decision of there financial life to invest?Is there anyone in cmf land that is positive?This decision of mine looks like one of the worst choices ive made in my financial life.Maybe everyone should just abandon the market since traders rule and have [email protected] the system eh!?....is that the truth?Belguy,have you ever made money in all your years....has it been for nada?Is buffet and lynchs advice bullshit.Or is this because everyone is scared to **** when staring into a bear market?


----------



## KaeJS

donald,

I think you are letting emotions get the better part of you. Think about all those people who were thinking the same thing and sold out foolishly in 08-09, now wishing that they hadn't.

I don't have much experience (2 years or so) but look at the chart for the TSX.

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:OSPTX

Even if you bought in September of 2000, at the peak of our little dot.com bubble, you would still have made money. And that's without counting dividends.

I am holding through everything. The markets must prosper. Companies will grow bigger. Unless America ends up like Ethiopia, everything should be okay, in time... I hope!


----------



## donald

Im going to hang in,im just being blunt.

Listening to doom and gloom over and over and over again,im just surprised that even the vetrans are this pessimistic,look @ the vets on this board,one guy says the world is going to end and half a dozen guys join in.

This board is far from positive,everyday is the same 8 mths since ive read this board and it gets worse and worse.

Kaejs this aint exactly fun,im not a trader.


----------



## ddkay

Things are heating up again, there's now talk about Belgium nationalizing Dexia bank. The zig zag range we've been in for so long is probably going to crack this week.










Meanwhile in Greece, more budget fraud...


> Greece to miss deficit targets despite austerity
> By Dina Kyriakidou and Ingrid Melander
> ATHENS | Sun Oct 2, 2011 7:47pm EDT
> (Reuters) - Greece will miss a deficit target set just months ago in a massive bailout package, according to government draft budget figures released on Sunday, showing that drastic steps taken to avert bankruptcy may not be enough.
> 
> The dire forecasts came while inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, EU and European Central Bank, known as the troika, were in Athens scouring the country's books to decide whether to approve a loan tranche. *Without that installment, Greece would run out of cash as soon as this month*.


----------



## Argonaut

I think a straddle on the SPY is a good bet here. We are at the low end of the trading range in the past month. It could shoot back up to 1200 and you'd make a nice penny. On the other hand, if support breaks the bulls will be sent to the slaughterhouse, the glue factory, and out to a minefield pasture all at once. I'm talking about the S&P 500 being worth one dollar per company.


----------



## Belguy

CBS News is reporting tonight that Greece will not be able to meet it's deficit reduction targets for 2012.

Paul Krugman's column in the New York Times/Toronto Star, under the heading 'Euro Zone Death Trip' states that "Europe's situation is really, really scary: with countries that account for a third of the euro area's economy now under speculative attack, the world's third largest currency's very existence is being threatened--and a euro collapse could inflict vast damage on the world. Without more expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in Europe's stronger economies, all of their rescue attempts will fail. There exists a very wide gap between what the euro needs to survive and what European leaders are willing to do, or even talk about doing. And given that gap, it's hard to find reasons for optimism". 

"European banks are teetering--if not now, then early next year. It is about whether the international financial system will survive the next six months in the form that we know it. It is about whether the foundations of the post war order are cracking in Europe. The prognosis for the next few years is bad with a chance of worse."--Walter Russell Mead in the New York Times.

No, I am not selling anything but I'm not at all comfortable about it and may end up seeing the quality of my remaining years greatly diminished due to having my money invested in the markets.

Buy, hold, and prosper?


----------



## ddkay

Isn't China supposed to bail out Europe?



> Warning signs from developer capitulation
> Oct. 2, 2011, 10:11 p.m. EDT
> 
> HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- While China's domestic stock markets are closed for the week-long National Day holidays, there is no respite for mainland Chinese developers listed in Hong Kong , who could face another selling onslaught.
> 
> Following steep falls last week, the share prices of various mainland developers including Agile Property (AGPYY) and Evergrande Real Estate (EGRNF) are now down as much as 60% since August.
> 
> The official line that Beijing has been steering the property market to an orderly cooling now looks rather hollow. The dramatic collapse in developer share prices looks like a ragged investor capitulation. Could the same fate lie ahead for the Chinese property market?
> 
> Investors preoccupied with European debt may find a "hard landing" for the Chinese economy is the next worry to take center stage.
> 
> Bonds issued by mainland property developers suggest default risks are a real concern, as yields rise above 20%. Chinese property developers have sold about $19 billion of debt in international markets in recent years.
> 
> One trigger for renewed selling last week was a report by Credit Suisse , warning of an informal-lending "time bomb." ( See report on Credit Suisse analysis of Chinese banking sector. ) Two weeks earlier, this column highlighted the risks in the escalation in gray-market lending, which had widened to include lending between individuals.
> 
> Credit Suisse warns this "wild wave" of nationwide informal lending could cause major problems if not handled carefully and proactively by the government. The Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission has suggested this lending totals about 3 trillion yuan ($470 billion), although Credit Suisse estimates it is as much as 4 trillion yuan , or 8% of the formal-lending market, and may be growing by over 50% year-on-year.
> 
> Developers squeezed out of lending from banks have been turning to these sources, and in some instances paying interest rates reportedly at up to 70% per annum.
> 
> One worry is the impact from potentially bad debts. Reports of business owners who borrowed from moneylenders fleeing overnight are becoming more common in the press.
> 
> Another consideration is what happens when this supply of informal lending, effectively acting as the lender of the last resort, dries up. One conclusion is this will be the catalyst to finally push developers to aggressively cut prices and liquidate inventory to raise cash.
> 
> This comes at a time when the mainland Chinese property market is hugely important to the wider economy and growth. Housing investment is estimated to account for a quarter of total fixed-asset investment.
> 
> The common rebuttal to those who question the sustainability of China's housing boom is that official figures understate the true size and wealth in the economy. How many times have we heard of mainlanders buying properties with cash alone?
> 
> These latest revelations on shadow banking raise new questions about the extent of this prodigious hidden wealth. If shadow loans were included, there is a lot more leverage -- and risky leverage -- in the property chain than meets the eye.
> 
> And if we are now at the stage of property prices being sustained by cash-strapped developers borrowing from moneylenders at exorbitant rates, just how much risk is in developers' stock? It is small wonder that investors have run for cover.
> 
> As ever in China , the policy response by officials will be closely watched. So far, it looks as if, rather than a relaxation on property curbs, reports suggest authorities are willing to see consolidation among the 50,000 or so mainland developers. This would include some of the larger developers buying up smaller players.
> 
> Still, experience in other markets suggests that if we do get a property crash, it will be difficult to ring-fence the pain, and it will be widely felt.
> 
> Already, Credit Suisse was warning that if the shadow-lending "time bomb" does go off, the damage is likely to extend far beyond the property market.
> 
> Banks with exposure to trust finance and SME lending are one risk. Some of the other areas it warns as vulnerable might appear less intuitive: These include Macau gaming stocks, which tumbled as much as 17% last Friday, as well as luxury-retailing brands.
> 
> Perhaps any asset that benefitted from gray money (be it borrowed or earned) in China now requires added caution, such as fine wines, art or overseas property. It would also be interesting to know if gold's recent decline has been impacted by these developments in mainland shadow lending -- either by diverting potential buyers to high-yield savings products or prompting liquidation?
> 
> All said, this holiday week, more than ever, we will be looking for evidence mainlanders are spending freely and have once again found the urge to buy property.
> 
> If these property strains do tip the wider economy into a hard landing, then the list of exposed assets will need to be widened yet further to include everything from various hard commodities to the China-trade-dependent Australian dollar (AUDUSD -0.1762%).


----------



## Jon_Snow

After careful consideration, I'm staying in cash.


----------



## sags

Paul Krugman, and many others have called for big stimulus packages, aimed directly at consumers, rather than the banks.

But, governments are leaning the other way..........austerity and public service cuts.

The "clash" between the two philosophies is full on these days.

It makes sense to me that stimulus is needed, but are countries so far in debt already, they are powerless to act?

That is certainly what it looks like.


----------



## Argonaut

What, oh what is the play? Let's make some money, boys. I feel like Nucky Thompson here. The solution is to whip out the stack of hundreds and flip through it. Let's go.

Bullish: Gold, USD
Bearish: Stocks, Euro

First trading day of October. The month is notorious for crashes. I want to make a move, but each move has to be precise and accurate, because option premiums are expensive.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Argonaut said:


> I want to make a move, but each move *has to be precise and accurate*, because option premiums are expensive.


This novice in option trading would not buy for that very reason & also not until I grasp the crucial components of OT. I think it's for seasoned traders to buy options during periods of extreme volatility; like someone said at the Options workshop, it's like buying home insurance in the middle of an earthquake/hurricane [not offered at that point in time or simply prohibitedly expensive].

For now I'm just learning/observing, but boy, how I wish I had bought options in July [the premium difference is unbelievable].

Good luck Argo [but don't forget the potential losses as well].


----------



## Belguy

OK, after much research and careful consideration, I am now ready to make my call.

We are definitely heading into another recession. During the 2008 recession, my portfolio was down 40 per cent, peak to trough. So far, it is down 10 per cent and so I figure that we have quite a way to go down yet.

My other call is that Greece will definitely default. However, I am not sure of the total ramifications of that. For example, might it lead to some European banks collapsing due to holding useless Greek debt and could this lead to a cascading effect? Nobody knows!

Anyway, another recession and a Greek default are now pretty much sure bets from where I sit!!

How long it will take for any recovery from these eventualities is anybody's guess.

Anyway, have a good day--or, at least try!!


----------



## HaroldCrump

Belguy said:


> OK, after much research and careful consideration, I am now ready to make my call.


Making calls is nice, but what are you doing about it?
Are you buying, selling or holding?


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> Making calls is nice, but what are you doing about it?
> Are you buying, selling or holding?


He's holding & re-balancing next January.


----------



## leoc2

> Originally Posted by Belguy
> OK, after much research and careful consideration, I am now ready to make my call.


Belguy why not dollar average your old portfolio of standard couch potato equities into *Option 3: The Yield-Hungry Couch Potato*? 
Your XCV and XCS can be converted into XEI Canadian Dividend.
Your VTI can be converted into VIG USA Dividend.
Your VEA and VWO can be converted into ZEF or CYH Emerging bond/Dividend.
GOLD equity can be converted to XRB real return bonds.
You could increase your PH&N Bond Fund D from 40% to 50% or 60% weighting while your doing this conversion.

All the selling and buying needed to do this will give some tax losses to be carried to other years when you rebalance.

This seems much less riskier and more appropriate for a person close to 70 years of age. I am 54 and I am going this route from a cash portfolio. Fifteen years of position trading has worn me out. Although I did well, it was more luck than skill. Here is a example of my luck: I went to all cash last May.


----------



## ddkay

The market is "supposed" to bounce here if you follow popular sentiment, but that trick is getting old now.

VIX is at 44.44, if it's snaps above 48.00 (C&H breakout) I'll be short-term long on TVIX and HVU.TO.


----------



## Homerhomer

1120 was a strong support we have bounced off 3 or 4 times, we are trading below that right now, let's see if today is the day we will start looking for another support below that.


----------



## Belguy

Thank you, leoc2, I will consider your suggestions!! If you went to all cash last May, you are smarter than a lot of the rest of us!! It must make you feel pretty good!!

By the way, is it just me that is getting smoked in the markets again (still!) today?


----------



## humble_pie

our belguy is a national treasure.
the walrus makes his call.


_" The walrus and the carpenter 
Were walking cross the land 
The beach was wide from side to side 
But much too full of sand 
"Mr Walrus," said the carpenter, 
"My brain begins to perk 
We'll sweep this clear and in a year 
If you don't mind the work." _












(belguy did you know that lewis carroll wrote the above poem when he was quite an old man. At the time, he was selling off his wornout sandy old stocks & sweeping the coast clear for his nice fresh new bonds.)


----------



## webber22

Yes, a lot of us will be happy when Belguy sells off his wornout sandy old stocks and goes to bonds


----------



## larry81

webber22 said:


> Yes, a lot of us will be happy when Belguy sells off his wornout sandy old stocks and goes to bonds


x2


----------



## larry81

Bough 529 XDV @19.62 today


----------



## Jungle

Investors after today:









TSX in BEAR mode.


----------



## v_tofu

Jungle said:


> Investors after today:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TSX in BEAR mode.


TSX, DOW, HANG SENG, NIKKEI, S&P, NASDAQ, etc etc.

Might as well replace that man with a globe 


Hey, My single investment is still up today. Someone told me it was just a shiny lump of rock but why is it worth more?


----------



## KaeJS

Hm.

I don't know what the hell is going to happen. Thought I'd just come right out and say it. I have no opinions.

I have ceased buying everything except BMO, and I have increased my BMO purchases.

I have made a foolish mistake. I thought by buying in on the lows of August 11, I may have got in at a good price. I got in at decent prices, but I'm starting to feel like I should have made sure I didn't spend all my cash...

I just love buying!


----------



## ddkay

There was intense put volume on Royal Bank monthly options today, open interest was 5511 40Ps to 782 40Cs, IV up to 55%.


----------



## Belguy

The best buying opportunities will come when some of the European banks start to fail!!


----------



## Goldfinger

*Oct5/6/7 2011*

On Sept 6 2011 I told you the ES would get to 1018 maybe 980.

We are headed that way. 1073/1043 and 1018 ( 1016.25 ) are the numbers to watch come October 7. A low could materialize at any of these numbers and then a rally into the Year, possibly January 2012. Momemtum could carry this past Oct 7 but it all depends how this week goes. 980 is the ideal target but we may get there after this week or not.

Just like last year and all the Euro noise...June 9, 2010 Euro made a low 1.18 and then took off. I suspect the currencies are basing into October 5-7 time frame and it could extend past ocotober 10 Thanksgiving time. Then, all the currencies will take off with the DX dropping 21-31 pt...from 77-31 = 46. The final low in the DX should be 41. This means the CAD will ramp up 21-31 pts to .95 + .31 = 1.26. The final high in the CAD should be 1.51-1.59.

The yen will be making a final high into 2012. 

The DX after hitting 41 will then move in a range and test 41, three times into 2014/15 before taking off and going above $2.00 by 2019.

The ES will reach 3,200-3,600 by 2014-2016. Please see Sept 6, 2011 for other details.

The best long for 2011 into 2012 by far and "one trade to freedom " is Natural Gas. I'm taking about the futures market. 

$8-9 is a guranteed bet....100% to hit from 3.61 or 3.50 etc front month Nov 11 low yet to come by October 7 2011 or even a little later. They will be a great reversal in nat gas either in October or November 2011 which will take "ALL" the gurus and xperts by suprise......100 year supply now becomes a shortage....

$40-45,000 move from strike price.....per carat. Upside targets are $8-9 for sure, then $11, 14 and my fav...$18.21

GC should get to $1300/1242/1155 imho. SI to $21-19.79 or lower. The sheep have to be slaughtered.....Alternatively, we know GC is going to $2,600and SI to $80-120 minimum. There should be some sideways basing for a long time before we have this parabolic upmove in 2013 into 2014. If it comes earlier then the downdraft after hitting the targets will be enormous.

RIM...its going to $250.00 after a susubstantial sideways basing. All the pundits who thougth it was a great stock at $70 and $55 have now flipped and calling RIM.TO a dog......tells you they know ****...those money managers. These fools will flip again in 2012/2013.I can easily make these losers feel so small but you must have an MBA, CFA with those stupid CSC courses to work in those BS centres...who wants to learn stuff that cannot make YOU MONEY!!!

While All you are frightened about the markets, I'm not..."Buy low sell high, Sell high, buy low." That's how you get rich...that simple.

But then YOUR Stupid BRAIN gets in the way.....tells you you need an MBA, CFA, CA, CSC tells you to watch this show and read this book...your mind flips after you make a decision to go long, your broker or broke friend is telling you, don't touch that stock because none of the MILLIONS of other people ( sheep ) are....on and on.

Look at a chart...like picasso would a painting. Example, You see gold make a high at 1925 on Sept 6, 2011. Time wise the final low should come in late January 2012/early Feb 2012. Any chart imagine the outcome...draw the pattern. You will fail, but after 8,000 hours plus on ONE market..you will should get 90% of it.

I can tell with great accuracy from the high or low price the next major turn date time frame and price. Where it gets hard(er) is when we go into a sideways channel.

Much to absorb.....If you love it like I do....money just flows, nearly as good as a printing press. This after lots of failure, persistence, focus, et al = Passion.

You can get there too.....


----------



## ddkay

I missed you Goldfinger


----------



## humble_pie

hey guys he's b-a-a-a-a-a-c-k.


----------



## KaeJS




----------



## KaeJS

He forgot to mention that YLO is going to start competing with GOOG's AdSense, turning profits yoy on the internet.

From a 20 cent stock to a $200 stock over 2 years. Bringing the dividends back, too....


----------



## humble_pie

ddkkay this is your next level.

you are to learn the finger's trick of foretelling, with great accuracy, the next major turn, date, time-frame & price.

never mind the razzle dazzle charts little bear. You are to learn to do all this just from a single hi or lo price reading.


----------



## Argonaut

"I'm the best on Bay Street. One of these cards says RIMM @ 250. Just try and stop me from playing it."


----------



## donald

Who is your favorite james bond goldfinger?Pierce or sean lol


----------



## ddkay

Goldfinger's master prediction illustrated, it's actually a little similar to my own but I'm not betting on a snap back recovery in 2013 or 2014.


----------



## dubmac

my jaw is hanging limply after reading goldfinger post...can anyone please decipher it - parse it if necessary. What's GC? SI? I don't unnerstan any of that! I'm sooo confused.


----------



## el oro

Futures jargon for gold and silver.


----------



## Goldfinger

*donald*

donal...Sean Connery.

Class and verve....He had it. The best of the lot. Roger Moore a distant 2nd.


----------



## el oro

I agree that stocks/commodities will enjoy a nice run into the latter half of this decade after 2012 lows but you have gold as the worst performer. No way! The roadmap for this scenario would be:
-Stocks/commodities fall into 2012 as government debt problems continue to be exposed around the world
-Investors turn to US dollar/bonds
-Once everyone else is out of the way, the world will realize the US also has debt problems and the MASSIVE capital in US dollar/bonds will flow into stocks/commodities/real estate, sending some multiples higher
-Gold will not be the worst performer in this environment

I'm looking forward to your big natural gas rally this month or next 

I caught the fibo number... I see what you're doing there


----------



## Goldfinger

*Do the opposite*

I seems less than 5% or for that matter less than 1% trade futures or options on commodities.

The point about Rim.to is very simple. When it was $150 not one of you thougth it could go to $22.00 NOw its at $22.00 not one of you sees it going to $250.00. Keep this post and and see the price by 2015.

Most of you here have not spend over 10,000-15,000 hours daytrading/trading commodities or looking at charts for the last 7 years. Passion = Profit.

You have been told you cannot time the markets, you cannot see the future etc. Well the people telling you this have never done it.

If all the great inventors and athletes had the same mentality that is espoused by most here..they would have never invented anything nor broken any record.

Example: Usain Bolt is 6-6/7 and runs a 9.69 100 metres. When I ran track in the 70's it was told by all the coaches ( certified now ) and trainers and experts that a tall guy ( i'm 6-4 ) could be a track star. Although, I would beat all the people in my team over 60-70 metres, I did not have the kick to finish. And the coaches told me you too tall, can't improve it...so I went on to be an all star basketball and football player.

Now here comes Usain Bolt that completely destroys this myth. Our own tract star Bailey who won gold in 1996 is 6 feet 3 and did not come up the "schooled ranks of track."

Yes, it hard for 'sheep" to get the point. When you do, then you know how to make money in the markets without anyone's help.

"counterintuitve" by Sir John Templeton.

Bolt broke all the so called taboos for a sprinter. A blue collar worker is the best stock trader bar none...not some harvard grad or some "fool" on Wall Street.

In 2007 I saw the best ES daytrader make 2,500% over 9 months starting with $10,000. He took it to $250,000 in 9 months starting on Jan 1, 2007. I took this calls...he ran 1 or 2 a day. He let his trade run with a 2.5 pt stop. Once stopped out he took 45 minutes to "chill." He would run 40-50 carats at the height and position size accordingly.

He was the best daytrader I've ever seen. Never taught and I asked him many times. 2,500% return in 9 months daytrading the ES. Yes YOU people think its "too good to be true" but I was there and took his calls. So stop being sheep and learn and find out for yourself. This trader nickname was tradergod and his site was under the same name.

When ALL of YOU see bust I see boom. When all of YOU see BOOM.....I see bust. You must know who the devil is then you will know the future.


----------



## Goldfinger

*ARgonaut*

Argonaut,

Please...Bay Street..this is Hell. And I aint going there.

But you are correct. I have that $250.00 card. 

Its at 21 and change. Unlike commodities stocks can go to ZERO a la Nortel.

But here is the questions for you frightnened willies.

How many so called "blue chip" stocks after a fall in the last 21 years ( Rim went public in 1995 or 96?...started in 1984) have gone broke after all fall. I can only recall Nortel and NOrtel was a public stock way back in the 70's.

In 2002 Rim went real low from $40..below $2.00 and it did not go broke. It went to $150. Now its at $21 and change. It will base for a while and then take off. So nobody here bought Rim then at $2.00 to run to $150.

NOw Nobody here is buying it at $21 to run to $250.00. That's why you broke...you keep making the same mistakes and you cannot see the future.

Intel was nearly broke in 1984....Dell was a 25 cent stock in 1989...Msft has not gone anywhere for 10 years....but once if busts...MSFT is going to $100-150 easy.....the last hurrah before the big drop in 2017 into 2019/2020.

The boys have it all figured out.....I just like watching them and make my move. It very easy with stocks. Commodities are much harder..that is why you must know the chart. But commodities will Never go to zero, that is why they are much better than stocks.

Go long with a put option, go short with a call option....simple and sleep well at night.

But your planner tells you that commodities are real risky...YOU can lose your house. I wonder how many people lost their houses/pensioins owning nortel stock?


----------



## el oro

Anyways...

Zerohedge spotted a nifty coincidence (closing prices):

*Oct 3, 2008: SPX=1099.23*; VIX=45.14 is to *Oct 3, 2011: SPX=1099.23*; VIX=45.45

as

Oct. 10, 2008: SPX=899.22; VIX = 69.95 is to ....


----------



## humble_pie

does not appear that frugal trader succeeded in getting rid of financead trojan. It morphed & returned as goldfinger.


----------



## humble_pie

zero hedge aka tyler durden aka daniel ivandjiiski is another kind of trojan.
milder, though.


----------



## humble_pie

on guard to keep evil trojan sheeple out of her barn.


----------



## Homerhomer

Goldfinger said:


> BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH?



Dude, why are you wasting your time writing this moronic stuff that I and perhaps few others (edit, initially I said nobody but seeing others do find it entertaining I decided to edit my post;-) don't find entertaining anymore, is internet making you brave or you are an idiot in real life as well?

Don't answer that ;-)


----------



## zylon

Speaking only for myself, I find *goldfinger* most entertaining. Although yesterday was the first time I'd seen any entries from said entity, so I don't know what came before.

It's pure Martin Armstrong with a pinch of Stewart Thomson for flavour.

Added: It's pure (one side) of Martin Armstrong. 
Marty always provides an alternate scenario.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Goldfinger is providing free entertainment in such bleak times.
I further recommend that we bring back that "Canada is broke" dude, and I'm Howard as well.


----------



## Jungle

Let's talk about the markets being down 3% today and it's not even 10am now.


----------



## jamesbe

Ouch! Well I'm still up from my purchases in early August. Unfortunately I bought most of my stuff late August


----------



## martinv

Yes, the markets. One word, ouch! Not nice. Don't look, don't look at my portfolio!
One thing I don't understand.
We keep being told how well positioned Canada is, how good our banks are (financially). But, the loonie has recently lost 10cents or 10% against the US dollar.
The US is supposed to be in horrible shape as far as their debt situation, yet our dollar keeps dropping.
Then there is Europe which is supposed to be a basket case as far as the sovereign debt and yet the Euro is still at 1.40 instead of perhaps .75.
I just don't get it.


----------



## v_tofu

Don't worry! Ben Bernanke is speaking today, I'm sure he'll fix everything!


----------



## peterboro31

Heck I wasn't aware that TD and BNS had a Greek affiliation; for that matter Rogers and BCE must be Greek as well;also Enbridge and Inter Provincial Pipeline I guess are Greek affiliated; also Fortis and Emera must sell their power in Greece and Europe.


It's damn nutz this crazy market; doesn't make sense at all.


----------



## andrewf

I did raise a bunch of cash at the beginning of September, so I'm mostly nonplussed. I'm just keeping an eye and waiting for my buying opportunity.


----------



## andrewf

peterboro31 said:


> Heck I wasn't aware that TD and BNS had a Greek affiliation; for that matter Rogers and BCE must be Greek as well;also Enbridge and Inter Provincial Pipeline I guess are Greek affiliated; also Fortis and Emera must sell their power in Greece and Europe.
> 
> 
> It's damn nutz this crazy market; doesn't make sense at all.


Everyone is connected. Greece is not an island.


----------



## ddkay

Dumb banks buy Greek bonds > Dumb Greek banks tighten lending rules so its practically impossible for Greek businesses to borrow > Greece's GDP continues to contract, government can't collect taxes so Greek bonds are worthless > Dumb banks forced to sell non-Greek hard assets/stocks/commodities/bonds to cover losses on Greek bonds > Other dumb banks catch the dumb tidal wave with margin calls and also forced to liquidate positions and cover losses by selling other non-Greek hard assets/stocks/commodities/bonds > Most banks settle their sales in the biggest currency pool available (USD) > Other dumb banks in self-presevation mode, also practically stop lending > Global credit crunch begins > Development projects come to a halt > People lose jobs > Global economy flushes down the toilet


----------



## peterboro31

Time for an ATIVAN folks.


----------



## ddkay

None of this is surprising to me, I just don't understand why people are buying anything before Greece and the rest of those countries default. Let's say Greece gets another bailout tranche with 30 billion EUR of bonds bought by the private sector, that just means the private sector has to slowly sell 30 billion EUR of stuff that's actually useful (e.g. your precious stocks). Without the ability for Greece to generate business activity and taxes Greece bonds are worthless, everyone is just begging private sector to hold those worthless assets on their balance sheet to save the Euro.


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> None of this is surprising to me, I just don't understand why people are buying anything before Greece and the rest of those countries default. .


Because nobody knows what will happen for sure, with all the negatives there is plenty of cash sitting around on the sideline, not only corporations are hording cash but also investors, this may (or may not) provide a quick rebound, short or long term, creating good trading opportunities or long term hold opportunities.

This may go much lower, or this may be a good time to buy now, only goldfinger knows what will happen, I don't think that buying bits and pieces and keeping some cash for possible further downturn at the same time is such a bad idea.


----------



## fatcat

> Time for an ATIVAN folks.


 great idea ... who makes ativan ? ... i'm buyin them


----------



## jamesbe

Oy bad 2 days.

I'll just not look for another few years...


----------



## ddkay

VIX still doesn't want to breakout.. looks like another short term bottom is in


----------



## HaroldCrump

What happened in the last hour?
TSX was down nearly 300 pts around 3:00 and DOW was down over 200 pts.
Yet, DOW made triple digit gains and TSX is down only 70 pts.
What's the big news?


----------



## ddkay

The TSX was down 330 points at 10:30, but then it recovered right around time Europe markets closed 










What happened was rumours of a bailout for Dexia (FT had this story yesterday)

Edit: Take this last minute buyers!

***BBG: ITALY'S GOVERNMENT BOND RATINGS CUT 3 NOTCHES BY MOODY'S***


----------



## Lena

News of EU finance ministers looking at ways to recapitalize European banks.


----------



## HaroldCrump

oh wait...my dear Helicopter friend was supposed to say something late this afternoon, wasn't he?
Did he come through, after all, with QE3?


----------



## Yudansha

Talk about a WTF rally! WTF. There goes some big tvix gains on my end. I think this rally will be short lived though. Too many Bears running around.

Once a few banks and/or Greece starts imploding then a bottom may be had.


----------



## larry81

what a crazy market


----------



## Eder

Homerhomer said:


> only goldfinger knows what will happen,


----------



## webber22

Financial Times reported co-ordinated EU debt action...... again...... some short squeezing perhaps on any excuse


----------



## larry81

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/oct/04/italy-downgrade-moodys-debt-crisis


----------



## KaeJS

I looked at the 1 day chart today for the TSX at 4:00pm while talking to a client today and I almost choked.


----------



## Belguy

Well, here is my positive thought for the day! With each passing trading day, we are getting closer and closer to the market bottom. Also, the bargoons are getting cheaper and cheaper!!

We may be approaching another one of those increasingly frequent times in the market when it becomes, as they say, "the buying opportunity of a lifetime".

Such 'opportunities' seem to now come around every three years or so!

The world economy is now so interdependent that market volatility, caused by any number of triggers on any given day in any part of the world, has become the new norm. 

And so, if you're going to be an investor, get used to it.

I long for the days when, if something happened in some far off country, it didn't affect North American markets one twit. That was back when geographical diversification really meant something.

As an aside, what is the very best country in the world to do business in?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2011/10/03/the-best-countries-for-business/

Gotta love our HST!!


----------



## peterboro31

We have put sell orders in to close our stock portion of our portfolios.

In my opinion the USA will not escape a further recession, jobs bill or not; it is to the Republicans advantage to have Obama defend a p poor USA economy.


----------



## Belguy

I, on the other hand, have sold nothing! I'm either brave or stupid!!


----------



## ddkay

Check out John Hussman's Weekly Market Comment



> Look at Bank of America's balance sheet, for example. Reported assets are $2.261 trillion. Against that, liabilities to depositors amount to less than half that, at $1.038 trillion. Add in $239 billion for securities that they are obligated to repurchase, $129 billion in trading account and derivative liabilities, and $155 billion for accrued expenses. Now you've covered counterparties, as well as vendors or others who might have invoices outstanding. Even then, and you're still only up to $1.561 trillion of the liabilities. The remaining 31% of Bank of America's liabilities represent obligations to its own bondholders and equity of its own shareholders. This is well beyond what is sufficient to buffer any loss that the company might take on its assets, while still leaving customers and counterparties completely whole. To say that Bank of America can't be allowed to "fail" is really simply to say that Bank of America's bondholders can't be allowed to experience a loss.
> 
> What "failure" really means is that bondholders lose money, and the operating part of the institution is taken into receivership, sold for the difference between assets and non-bondholder liabilities, and recapitalized under different ownership. Often the only thing that customers and depositors notice is that there is a new logo on top of their statements.
> 
> Now take a look at Citigroup's balance sheet. Reported assets are $1.956 trillion. Against that, liabilities to depositors again amount to less than half of that, at $866 billion. Add in $204 billion in repurchase obligations, $209 billion in trading and brokerage liabilities, and $73 billion in other liabilities, and you're still only up to $1.352 trillion. The remaining 31% of Citigroup's liabilities, again, represent obligations to its own bondholders and equity of its own shareholders. And again, to say that Citigroup can't be allowed to "fail" is really simply to say that Citigroup's bondholders can't be allowed to experience a loss.
> 
> You can do the same calculations for nearly every major financial institution in the world. The amount of bondholders and equity coverage varies somewhat, but in virtually every case, bondholder and shareholder capital of these institutions are more than sufficient to absorb any losses without the need for public funds, provided that the objective of government policy is to protect the people and the long-term viability of the economy, rather than defending the existing owners, bondholders, and managements of these institutions. Make no mistake - that choice is what the oncoming crisis is going to be about.


http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111003.htm


----------



## dogcom

Ddkay I was listening to Cramer on CNBC Squawk Box this morning and he said that US banks are being targeted by short sellers because they are not allowed to short European banks. I know many won't listen to him but what he said here does make sense. He said as a hedge fund manager he would be looking to short something because the Euro banks cannot be shorted so he would short the hell out of the US ones then.


----------



## ddkay

I wish I could find the UBS pdf again.. but all the banks Delta One desks create derivative trackers that anyone inside the bank with a trading platform can use to synthetically short the banks while short-sale bans are in effect. Internal policy "prohibits" naked shorts and say to only use the product for downside protection if they are already long on a particular bank stock. Of course as we saw from the Adoboli case these policies are never really enforced.

The markets are concentrating on Morgan Stanley and other US banks that have the most exposure to France

Check out this post by Reggie Middleton: http://www.zerohedge.com/contribute...squid-goldman-sachs-and-market-perception-rea


----------



## fatcat

brilliant piece ddkay ..this is it right here in a nutshell ... how can the bondholders, shareholders and management and assorted goldman-sachs riff-raff screw the taxpayer !! ... brilliant



> You can do the same calculations for nearly every major financial institution in the world. The amount of bondholders and equity coverage varies somewhat, but in virtually every case, bondholder and shareholder capital of these institutions are more than sufficient to absorb any losses without the need for public funds, provided that the objective of government policy is *to protect the people and the long-term viability of the economy, rather than defending the existing owners, bondholders, and managements of these institutions. Make no mistake - that choice is what the oncoming crisis is going to be about.*


----------



## andrewf

I totally agree with how bailing out the banks being a case of bailing out their bondholders. Of course, since these banks hold each other's debt, you need to consider second order effects. One bank wiping out equity and causing a writedown for bondholders might cause a chain reaction through other financial institutions. Nonetheless, the substance of the point stands--that depositors, counterparties, etc. should be covered by the residual assets of the banks. We might just see a dramatic shrinking of the financial sector. Perhaps this wouldn't be a bad thing... much of the activity in the financial sector is of dubious value.

For that matter, the same argument applies to GM/Chrysler. They could have defaulted on their bonds and other liabilities (such as pensions) and emerged from restructuring without government aid (except perhaps some liquidity given that the financial system was frozen and it would have been hard to get debtor in possession financing).


----------



## Jungle

I feel better now that the TSX is green by triple digits at 236pm. But I know this can go 500 points sour by 4pm.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Kevin O'Leary said last night that we have to get used to this volatility for the next few years.  [hope Belguy is not reading this]. 

I think now we don't bat an eyelash/eyelid for a mere -200 points drop anymore, so that means we have gotten used to this roller-coaster.


----------



## andrewf

Kevin O'Leary is not an authority. I don't think this volatilty can persist for that long... that would be unprecedented. My guess is that dragging out the default(s) in Europe is what is driving the volatility. Once Greece goes and the ripple effects pass, I think the market would settle down (perhaps substantially lower than here).


----------



## ddkay

Bull market 

VIX stopped falling and SPY stopped rallying today near the middle BB, let's see how the day ends


----------



## ddkay

The best thing that could happen right now is a bull trap where the market rallies a thousand points on rumours and I can load up puts on the cheap.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Who said anything about K'O being an authority?! 

I was merely repeating a comment he made, but that's not to say that I swallow everything he [or anyone else for that matter], have to say. 

At any rate, I myself happen to believe that markets will remain quirky for longer than we think/hope, but I like a yo-yo market as it has worked for me.


----------



## Sampson

andrewf said:


> Kevin O'Leary is not an authority. I don't think this volatilty can persist for that long... that would be unprecedented. My guess is that dragging out the default(s) in Europe is what is driving the volatility. Once Greece goes and the ripple effects pass, I think the market would settle down (perhaps substantially lower than here).


I think it WILL persist that long, but with intermittent bouts of calm.

Greece is not the problem, over-leveraging is, and we still have a ways ways to go before the global economy is in the clear. I simply can't see a scenario where all the other 'at risk' countries will come out of this clean. First Greece, then everyone will breathe a sigh of relief and markets will shoot up, then it'll be someone else's turn.

Who will support the bailouts? EU, China, US? I don't think they combined could gently buffer the de-leveraging, hence all the ups and downs and prolonged volatility.


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> Who said anything about K'O being an authority?!
> 
> I was merely repeating a comment he made, but that's not to say that I swallow everything he [or anyone else for that matter], have to say.
> 
> At any rate, I myself happen to believe that markets will remain quirky for longer than we think/hope, but I like a yo-yo market as it has worked for me.


Now you hurt my feelings, I was sure you read every word I write like a bible

I agree, quirky markets are here to stay for a lot longer, unemployment and debt is not going away and China is hitting a bump, can't say I like it though, I would rather hit the bottom quickly, put all my money in dividend payers and not worry about them other than occasional rebalance and prosper 

Few months ago we were told European bank passed the stress tests and everything is fine, eeeek, anyone forgot to stress test Dexia ;_)


----------



## andrewf

Sampson said:


> I think it WILL persist that long, but with intermittent bouts of calm.
> 
> Greece is not the problem, over-leveraging is, and we still have a ways ways to go before the global economy is in the clear. I simply can't see a scenario where all the other 'at risk' countries will come out of this clean. First Greece, then everyone will breathe a sigh of relief and markets will shoot up, then it'll be someone else's turn.
> 
> Who will support the bailouts? EU, China, US? I don't think they combined could gently buffer the de-leveraging, hence all the ups and downs and prolonged volatility.


I agree that Greece is not the whole problem, but once Greece defaults, I expect that to unblock the logjam we're in. Other countries may also decide to default (Ireland and Portugal), banks will fail and a less leveraged financial system can emerge.


----------



## Toronto.gal

It is not only the US & the EU, but let's also not forget the ongoing unrest in the Middle East + several other global conflicts....it's like it's never-ending. 

LOL Homerhomer.


----------



## ddkay

Buy Kippur, sell Halloween

Air Canada is buying Yahoo


----------



## Belguy

Congratulations, ddkay, you have just been named 'Employee of the Month'!!

Your month is October, 1929!!


----------



## ddkay

Interesting data on $SPY price swings put together by Steve Place



Code:


[URL="http://www.investingwithoptions.com/2011/10/06/the-average-squeeze/"]The Average Squeeze[/URL]

Dates		Duration	Low	High	Absolute Move	% Move
08/09-08/17	8 days		109.70	120.58	10.88		9.90%
08/22-08/31	9 days		111.83	122.87	11.04		9.90%
09/06-09/08	2 days		113.79	120.32	6.53		5.70%
09/12/09/16	4 days		113.46	121.79	8.33		7.30%
09/22-09/27	5 days		111.30	119.56	8.26		7.40%
Average		5.6 days			9.01		8.06%

10/04-??/??	? days		107.43	?	?		?%

If the yo-yo pattern holds he believes upside is capped around $9.01, that would bring Tuesday's $107.43 low to a $116.44 high today (or the coming days) before reversal


----------



## ddkay

If someone with casino money feels ballsy enough to do this one month

SU-N Suncor (oilsands) Macro Everything Is Fixed Options Trade
Daily High: $28.00
Yearly High: $48.22
Your bet: Suncor's stock will be $48.22 again within the next 3.5 months
$1,400,000 ($28 x 100 shares x 500 Jan '12 $28 call contracts @ $278 each)
$2,411,000 ($48.22 x 100 shares x 500 Jan '12 $28 call contracts @ $4,822 each)
$1,011,000 stock price difference
- $139,000 contract costs
- $? ($2000?) broker commission
$870,000 net profit


----------



## humble_pie

bear if you would take your theoretical little nose out of the tos algebra just long enuf you'd see that su is not going to 48.22 by 3rd fri in jan ...


----------



## ddkay

But what about the end of year rally everyone is talking about that breaks 2011 highs?

The SPX moved 170 points (1175->1345) between December 2010 and February 2011


















~6.5% chance?


----------



## humble_pie

help i am being blinded by iridescent radioactive rays.













i'll have to take refuge in my beaver lodge.













i might be a national icon but the truth is that beavers are just rats with good public relations.


----------



## ddkay

This highly praised options pricing model says there was less than 5% chance of Suncor touching $23 this October, yet rewind the clock a few days and it hit $22.55.

Rewind the clock to last year and clearly it didn't know QE could pump uppp the market more than 15% and put everyone in euphoria.

Clearly it doesn't know what the heck it's talking about.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay,

I don't want to be rude, and I do enjoy your charts so keep posting them.

But I've got to say.. That stuff don't mean sht 

Price Action is the only technical.


----------



## larry81

US: Futures Rebound After Robust Jobs Report
Canada: A greater-than-expected 60,900 new jobs

Prepare for a GREEN DAY


----------



## KaeJS

That's what it's looking like!


----------



## larry81

oh lol, market timing gone wrong, what a surprise


----------



## ddkay

Green to red, the economy doesn't function on two data points. Euro is tossing its cookies, back down we go.


----------



## Yudansha

And then back up again... Anyone care to speculate why? With all the downgrades this week I was really surprised to see a rally take place. I guess there is a lot more positive energy out there than I had imagined.


----------



## ddkay

There's just massive indecision and too much credit stress in both directions. A small pop could causes shorts to violently cover while some lucky get out selling the rally, while violent drops bring more overleveraged longs to forcibly unwind.

The moves are not fundamentally driven. I mean, rally on debt downgrades and -$9.5bn consumer credit, the worst in 13 years? I'm sure employment data will improve now people are determined not to spend money.


----------



## Belguy

It truly is a time of 'maximum pessimism'!! Say, didn't some famous person once say that that was the time to buy?? In today's world, if you are doing much buying, you must have nerves of steel!!


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> oh lol, market timing gone wrong, what a surprise


No kidding, eh?

Good thing I cancelled my Buy order for MT at 9:25am this morning!!!


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> No kidding, eh?
> 
> Good thing I cancelled my Buy order for MT at 9:25am this morning!!!


Miranda Technologies Inc. (MT) ?!


----------



## KaeJS

Not Miranda Technologies Inc. (TSE:MT)

I was talking about ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT)
It dropped 2.14% yesterday.


----------



## ddkay

Some dates and names for the earnings season ahead

Oct 05: Monsanto (MON) - posted loss, but beat analyst expectations
Oct 07: HTC (2498.TW) - posted record profit
Oct 11: Alcoa (AA)
Oct 12: Pepsico (PEP)
Oct 13: JPM Chase&Co (JPM), Rio-Tinto (RIO)
Oct 17: Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC)
Oct 18: Apple (AAPL), Bank of America (BAC), Coca Cola (KO), EMC (EMC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Intel (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Oct 19: Abott Laboratories (ABT), American Express (AXP), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), BHP Billiton (BHP), Morgan Stanley (MS)
Oct 21: Manpower (MAN)
Oct 24: Caterpillar (CAT)
Oct 25: 3M (MMM), Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO), Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE), UBS AG (UBSN.VX)
Oct 26: Vale (VALE5.SA)
-
Nov 01: Pfizer (PFE)
Nov 02: Aecon Group (ARE.TO)
Nov 03: AboveNet (ABVT), Agrium (AGU.TO), Alstom SA (ALO.PA), ArcelorMittal (MT), BCE (BCE.TO), Kelogg Co (K), LinkedIn (LNKD), Manulife Financial (MFC.TO), SunLife Financial (SLF.TO), Suncor Energy (SU.TO)
Nov 04: Alcatel Lucent SA (ALU.PA), Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP), Brookfield Office Properties (BPO.TO)
Nov 07: Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO)
Nov 08: Societe Generale (GLE.PA)
Nov 09: Cisco (CSCO), Dexia SA (DEXB.BR)
Nov 10: Credit Agricole SA (ACA.PA)
Noc 14: UniCredit SpA (UCG.MI)
Nov 18: Autodesk (ADSK)
Nov 23: Deere & Co (DE)
Nov 31: TD Bank (TD.TO)
-
Dec 01: CIBC (CM.TO)
Dec 02: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO), Royal Bank (RY.TO)
Dec 06: Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO), ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA.DE)
Dec 08: National Bank of Canada (NA.TO)
Dec 12: Accenture (ACN)
Dec 14: Joy Global (JOYG)
Dec 15: Research In Motion (RIM.TO)


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Some dates and names for the earnings season ahead


Kinda interesting comment from Don Vialoux regarding earnings: 
"Markets. Since 1924, the S&P 500 has gone down 8% or more in the 3rd quarter on 15 occasions. On average, the 4th quarter gain was 4.9%. We just had a very important inflection low earlier this week. We are lined up for a classic move in the 4th quarter.* Next week we get the start of ¾ reports and they're going to be terrible. Markets will already have anticipated this and stocks will start to move on the upside on really bad news*."

Is it possible?  I'm not analyst and thinking opposite, if 3/4 reports will be terrible. markets in the best case will stay flat...


----------



## ddkay

If Euro banks don't blow up before December, IMO the most important earnings will be base metal miners and heavy equipment. Will CAT miss say China is still slowing down and guide lower? They have been intentionally cooling by raising interest rates all year, that's bad news for everyone else.


----------



## Homerhomer

gibor said:


> Kinda interesting comment from Don Vialoux regarding earnings:
> "Markets. Since 1924, the S&P 500 has gone down 8% or more in the 3rd quarter on 15 occasions. On average, the 4th quarter gain was 4.9%. We just had a very important inflection low earlier this week. We are lined up for a classic move in the 4th quarter.* Next week we get the start of ¾ reports and they're going to be terrible. Markets will already have anticipated this and stocks will start to move on the upside on really bad news*."
> 
> Is it possible?  I'm not analyst and thinking opposite, if 3/4 reports will be terrible. markets in the best case will stay flat...


I wouldn't put any stock into what he has to say, he speaks like he knows the future and can do no wrong, if that were the case he should have been wealthier than Buffet by now. I am fine with cyclical investing, but he preaches nothing but cyclicals and the market doesn't really work this way.

On Thursday evening there were 3 analysts on BNN, each one of them said if we get good job report (100k plus) we would have huge run up on Friday. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ;-)


----------



## doctrine

Why would 3rd quarter results be terrible in Canada? I would bet results will show healthy profit margins across the boards, and there will be a smattering of dividend increases.


----------



## ddkay

Nice scenario flowchart on the BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14977728

Alcoa (aluminum) earnings tomorrow morning, keep your eyes peeled for reactions to that


----------



## dogcom

Homerhomer Don Vialoux is a seasonal investor and simply puts out the odds in your favor. He says things like oil went up 7 out of 10 years in such and such a period which means 3 out of 10 times it didn't go up. He also says sell in May and go away and so we should have. He is not using magic or some crazy tech but just events that happen every year and on on to make a call.


----------



## larry81

go AA go !!!


----------



## sags

The markets should act favourably, now that the Europeans have the broad outline of a plan of a plan to meet and discuss a plan, to save the world.......


----------



## Homerhomer

dogcom said:


> Homerhomer Don Vialoux is a seasonal investor and simply puts out the odds in your favor. He says things like oil went up 7 out of 10 years in such and such a period which means 3 out of 10 times it didn't go up. He also says sell in May and go away and so we should have. He is not using magic or some crazy tech but just events that happen every year and on on to make a call.


As I said seasonal investing is not be all end all of all the investing, and that's what he makes it sound like predicting future almost to the day.


----------



## dogcom

I disagree, I know he will give the best entry date but then he will go on to say or show you how this year or season is shaping up. A lot of what he says like Tech does well before Christmas because of the big announcements and roll outs by companies before the big season. And then after the big Tech conference in the new year in Vegas the last of the big announcements and news rolls out and then Tech doesn't do so well.

Or gold has a good seasonal period starting in mid summer because of buying for Indian weddings or whatever. So it is not hocus pocus but instead just common sense themes that bring on a season of strength.


----------



## ddkay

Alcoa -3.5% on earnings miss. Said growth was slowing, upbeat about everywhere except Europe. Rio-Tinto's the next coming up Thursday.


----------



## ddkay

AMD's Bulldozer launched tonight (3 hours ago). OMG, what a train wreck. 32nm, new design, worse core AND thermal performance. Why bother? Their stock price is already down a ton from the end of September because they lowered their own guidance. I don't know how much of that selloff reflected how trashy this would be, otherwise I would short it...


----------



## ddkay

Massively overbought market again, rising this quickly in this environment is setting up conditions for a crash. Maybe in the next week or two. SPX is about to tag the top line in its bollinger band @ 1233. Waiting patiently for the chance to go IT long a VIX ETF again.


----------



## Toronto.gal

And what about the selling stampede of recent weeks? 

What we have is correction after correction.

*ddkay:* you own this thread.


----------



## Argonaut

Bought SPY puts. Market met 1220 resistance and retreated. This 100 point swing up and down can continue indefinitely for all I care, though I have yet to have the courage to buy calls when it hits the bottom of the range.


----------



## Abha

Despite the progress we have made this week we are still very much in a range bound market.

I would be really happy if we paused for a bit and moved sideways because these massive moves in either direction are so hard to play.


----------



## Sherlock

ddkay said:


> AMD's Bulldozer launched tonight (3 hours ago). OMG, what a train wreck. 32nm, new design, worse core AND thermal performance. Why bother? Their stock price is already down a ton from the end of September because they lowered their own guidance. I don't know how much of that selloff reflected how trashy this would be, otherwise I would short it...


But bulldozer cpus are sold out at every site that sell them, since they are still very price-competitive with Intel. http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16819103960


----------



## KaeJS

Abha said:


> these massive moves in either direction are so hard to play.


Tell me about it...

I've just stopped trading the past month.

Only thing I bought was Suncor.


----------



## Sampson

I would think that this volatility is EXACTLY what traders would want, plenty of opportunity to play these massive swings and the magnitude of your earnings would equally be greater.


----------



## webber22

What's the old saying about worn out day-traders forced into being buy-and-hold investors


----------



## KaeJS

But it's too unpredictable.

For me, trading works on predictability and future sight.

How can you possibly know what will happen tomorrow when the market is being run on only emotions and political statements?

For someone that is working a day job, it is too hard to trade. One hour of not checking the market and you could be focked.


----------



## Belguy

A lot of what happens in the markets depends on what the lawmakers in Slovenia decide to do!


----------



## ddkay

Slovakia* 

They will probably be pressured into approving it. It's still futile though, the EFSF needs to be 5-10x bigger than the proposal.


----------



## fatcat

> How can you possibly know what will happen tomorrow when the market is being run on only emotions and political statements?


 the big problem for traders like you and others kae is that this isn't going to change anytime soon ..

markets are going to be run by deals made in back rooms between wealthy and powerful individuals for a long time (think years) to come

(not that to a degree, this hasn't always been the case but politics and the role of government in propping and moving the economy is going to be very big for a long time)

the fundamentals will get crushed because a powerful politician holds out for a better deal

slovakia being a prime example

we are in the process of merging into a global system of markets which will take a long time to iron out politically


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Tell me about it...
> 
> I've just stopped trading the past month.
> 
> Only thing I bought was Suncor.


Are you still holding


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sampson said:


> I would think that this volatility is EXACTLY what traders would want, plenty of opportunity to play these massive swings and the magnitude of your earnings would equally be greater.


*Exactly!*

True that only very few can spot/capture the bottom and/or top, but I'm not greedy either way, hence I'm not looking for superlatives; I'm fine not buying lowest/selling highest & that realistic approach has worked very well for me. 

As an example, on October 4th, POT was just above $42 and it was screaming 'buy me'. In less than a week, it recovered $8. Similar scenario with many 'screaming' stocks.


----------



## KaeJS

*fatcat,* you are definitely correct. There are safer times to trade than the present.

*larry,* of course.


----------



## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> As an example, on October 4th, POT was just above $42 and it was screaming 'buy me'. In less than a week, it recovered $8. Similar scenario with many 'screaming' stocks.


I thought POT was screaming at $44.

Another issue for me is that my portfolio is so small. It is hard for me to take advantage of all the opportunities without selling things I do not want to sell.


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> But it's too unpredictable.


I disagree! 

- There has been recovery after each [short-lived] downturn,
- repeat above
- repeat above

If that is not predictable, I don't know what is.  A day/swing traders' paradise.


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> I thought POT was screaming at $44.


It was a screamer at $45, $46 and even $47, so why did you not jump- in??!! 

It's not about getting the lowest, it's about buying a screamer as your MT had been.


----------



## KaeJS

*T.gal*

Maybe it's my inexperience, then. But at the moment, I'm having a hard time figuring out whats going to happen on a daily basis.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> A lot of what happens in the markets depends on what the lawmakers in Slovenia decide to do!


If you're a buy/holder, what are you doing here?


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> *T.gal*
> 
> Maybe it's my inexperience, then. But at the moment, I'm having a hard time figuring out whats going to happen on a daily basis.


Just forget about getting the lowest/highest [if trading] as it will happen only by luck. I realize you're not making bick bucks at BMO [yet], but there are so many cheap stocks these days that were brutally punished that could have given you a nice profit. 

Another example, BBD.B had been a screamer at $3.50, would you not agree? I mean this great company has been getting so many orders this year. Even MFC, lol, my 1st nightmare stock.


----------



## KaeJS

It's not that I disagree with the opportunities that are out there, but I have no capital left. I should have bought MT when I posted about it. 

And to buy on margin and trade in this market is too scary. I am actually borrowing a couple hundred dollars at the moment just for my current positions and I don't want to increase that any further.

I don't like Bombardier, much. But I still think its an OK entry at $4.00.

MFC wasn't too bad, but I don't like the risk and I already own SLF.


----------



## Belguy

Slovenia, Slovakia, whatever!!

The point is how stupid is it that the health of our equity portfolios depend on how lawmakers in some poor, far off country decide to vote.

Welcome to the wonderful world of economic globalization!!

Now, I'm going to forget the whole matter and go and watch O'Reilly!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS, I never borrow to invest and I would never recommend that either, I was just trying to make a point that trading was easier in this type of volatile markets. 

Also, I thought we were discussing trading, not buying/holding; I bought enough MFC and other less likeable stocks to last me a lifetime, ie: long term, but now I'm trading same stocks to recover my paper losses and buying long term only with profits made. 

For certain stocks I'm in/out the same day if at all possible not to tie up capital, but of course sometimes it does not work out & have to wait a bit longer to exit.


----------



## ddkay

We've moved 1200 points in 7 days, there's no doubt to me this market is overbought. Calling tops and bottoms exactly is pretty much impossible but you can come pretty close if you see through the headlines. Put the DJIA above 12,000 and I'll get bullish again. The only thing that could do that is ridiculous, unimaginably large amounts of coordinated stimulus at the expense of investment grade sovereign credit and growth (in the end they cancel each other out). If TPTB do figure out a way for infinite bailouts and simultaneous growth, then it's time to start piling into the oil and gold trade again.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> It's not that I disagree with the opportunities that are out there, but I have no capital left. I should have bought MT when I posted about it.


MT is still a strong buy imho, a bet on MT is a bet on the (slow?) recovery


----------



## KaeJS

^ Yeah. And I don't know how I feel about that.

If I wasn't going to buy on margin, i would have bought already. But, margin is the devil.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> ^ Yeah. And I don't know how I feel about that.
> 
> If I wasn't going to buy on margin, i would have bought already. But, margin is the devil.


IMHO, depending of the situation it might even make sense to sell losing position for tax loss harvesting and buy position in beaten stock like MT, SU, AA, etc. 

A bet on theses stocks...is a bet on the recovery !

Contrary to many on this forum, I don't believe we are about to enter another dark ages...


----------



## Abha

But he's definitely right to stay away from margin. That's the best way to blow up your account.


----------



## Argonaut

Toronto.gal said:


> I disagree!
> 
> - There has been recovery after each [short-lived] downturn,
> - repeat above
> - repeat above


Hmm, maybe I'm glass half-empty but I see it as the exact opposite. There has been a downturn after every short lived recovery.

Anyway I'm just going to ignore the news and play the 1120-1120 range until that trend breaks.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Belguy said:


> Slovenia, Slovakia, whatever!!
> 
> The point is how stupid is it that the health of our equity portfolios depend on how lawmakers in some poor, far off country decide to vote.


It is not whatever and it is not stupid, if you think about it.
It was all fine and dandy for us here on the North American/Western European high horse when we wanted their cheap labor and their markets.
So we shipped jobs abroad and imported cheap junk and included them in the WTO and gave them free IMF and WB funds and brought them under the benevolent umbrella of our good-as-gold currencies.

And now it is not ok when they want to have a say in the same things?

Recall that the assassination of a whatever dude in a whatever country in Europe started WW-I.


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> IMHO, depending of the situation it might even make sense to sell losing position for tax loss harvesting and buy position in beaten stock like MT, SU, AA, etc.
> 
> A bet on theses stocks...is a bet on the recovery !
> 
> Contrary to many on this forum, I don't believe we are about to enter another dark ages...


I don't think we are headed into the dark ages, either.

But I also don't want to bet on the "recovery". People are still jobless. Debt is still high. Alcoa missed earnings. Riots and Protests in the streets. Europe is still fucked as far as I'm concerned.

Bet on the recovery? Not yet. Not on margin.

But for you, larry, you've got money and time. You should be buying MT like you said you wanted to. Its a $30 stock.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Argonaut said:


> There has been a downturn after every short lived recovery.


Exactly! 

Why do you think I trade? Precisely for that reason, because after a nice short-lived recovery, down they go again and again, so I don't hold on to them for too long, at least not until the volatility is easier to stomach. I want to make money in this turbulent market, not just see the stocks go down and down. 

That is not to say that I'm not adding/DCA'ing my long term positions, but again, the discussion was trading, at least that is what I was responding to Sampson/KaeJS.


----------



## Belguy

I guess that it is a question for the ages, but I just cannot see that changing from a buy-and-hold investor to a day trader is going to end up benefiting anyone in the long run.

However, to each his own!


----------



## Toronto.gal

*Belguy:* please don't concern yourself with traders, just worry about yourself!


----------



## Argonaut

You don't have to pigeon-hole yourself into a particular style. My main buy and hold stocks I haven't done anything with for about a year. But at any given time I'm playing with about 15% of my cash with options. My cash represents 25% of my portfolio, so trading only represents about 4% of my capital. However, it has produced a very large portion of my returns this year.


----------



## ddkay

JPMChase&Co posted bad earnings, so far it's -6.35%.

Google also posts earnings after close, that should shake up the NQ/NDX tech index, undoubtedly one of the only charts that look like its made any actual recovery in the last 10 weeks


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> *Belguy:* please don't concern yourself with traders, just worry about yourself!


 and stop worrying about the rest of us.

Tradism is not communism or any other disease, despite the fact you make it out to be, it's just a way of making money that doesn't fit your style ;-), please accept it once and for all and stop being so condesending to anyone who chooses different investing style than yours.

Pinky swear?


----------



## ddkay

Google surprises with $9.72 EPS vs $8.74 EPS estimates, sp up 6.98% to $597.99 afterhours.


----------



## ddkay

On the conference call, "in much of Western Europe some softness in ad sales"

http://www.youtube.com/googleir


----------



## dogcom

Funny guy is what it sounds like belguy you do entertain us. Also it must suck living through 2 depressions and did you witness the one in 1870 as well. Sorry couldn't resist that one. 

Ddkay I am figuring tech to be ready to rally here and the most important numbers this season I think will be the guidance going forward on earnings.


----------



## gibor365

Dow and S&P are down, VIX also down .... is it bulish or berish or neither?


----------



## kcowan

Toronto.gal said:


> *Belguy:* please don't concern yourself with traders, just worry about yourself!


He has to worry about something! Why not traders?


----------



## ddkay

Nexus Prime is being released next week 

@gibor SPX is up from yesterdays close and VIX is down from yesterdays close, VIX usually tracks the inverse of SPX. I would say this is short term bullish still. I expect downside action next week. Remember the earnings schedule, lots of financials reporting 

Oct 17: Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC)
Oct 18: Apple (AAPL), Bank of America (BAC), Coca Cola (KO), EMC (EMC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Intel (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Oct 19: Abott Laboratories (ABT), American Express (AXP), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), BHP Billiton (BHP), Morgan Stanley (MS)


----------



## andrewf

VIX is still quite high. I would say it is a bullish indicator. It has come down ~30% from its highs, though.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Nexus Prime is being released next week
> 
> @gibor SPX is up from yesterdays close and VIX is down from yesterdays close, VIX usually tracks the inverse of SPX. I would say this is short term bullish still. I expect downside action next week. Remember the earnings schedule, lots of financials reporting
> 
> Oct 17: Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC)
> Oct 18: Apple (AAPL), Bank of America (BAC), Coca Cola (KO), EMC (EMC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Intel (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
> Oct 19: Abott Laboratories (ABT), American Express (AXP), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), BHP Billiton (BHP), Morgan Stanley (MS)


Maybe, but on other side other banks BAC, C, GS etc already sharply down on JPM (as one of the strongest banks) missing earning... so miised estimation for them can be already included in the price...


----------



## Abha

Banks are still a few quarters away from beating their earnings. I wouldn't consider it a shock if all the financials missed their earning this quarter.

It's the other industries that will give you a better tell on the direction of the economy.


----------



## Mockingbird

Abha said:


> But he's definitely right to stay away from margin. That's the best way to blow up your account.


This is like saying.. "guns kill people".

MB


----------



## Belguy

Stocks were mostly down today!! What is the market's latest excuse?


----------



## peterboro31

How were your bond funds. Positive so the glass is half full I hope.


----------



## Belguy

OK, just for sheer hellery, let's check the 30 day returns of various bond funds as of closing October 13:

Claymore 1-5 Corp.: -0.24%
Claymore 1-5 Govt.: 0.00%

XCB: -0.85%
XGB: -0.27%
XLB: -0.84%
XRB: -0.62%
XSB: -0.07%
XBB: -0.41%

PH&N Bond Fund D: -0.43%

And so, you would have done better with any money market fund and interest rates haven't even started to rise yet!!

Back in 2008, when the equity markets plunged, bonds provided a nice ballast and a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds was sheltered from much of the volatility.

Going forward, I doubt if bonds will provide anywhere near the same degree of protection and so, when equities dive, we'll mainly be on our own--unless, of course, we are 90 per cent in cash or something like that!!

Note also that the shorter term bond funds are holding up best--at least over this time frame and likely going forward as well.


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> PH&N Bond Fund D: -0.43%


PH&N cofounder Bob Hager has died.
http://www.investmentexecutive.com/-/ph-n-co-founder-bob-hager-dies

Funeral is today in Vancouver. He was 73.


----------



## Belguy

The markets didn't do too well yesterday. What was their excuse this time? Did it have anything to do with the sputtering U.S. economy? Or, could it have been more worries about Greece and the Euro Zone?

No, as the headline in the Toronto Star reads, 'Chinese growth worries hammer TSX'.

I'm telling you folks that, with today's globalized economy, what chance do investors have?

I'm thinking that today the problem might originate in Zwaziland???

How many countries are there in the world? The potential for problems is endless.

Hang on for the ride!!


----------



## zylon

*borrowed without permission*

Belguy, here's a new slogan for ya


----------



## Belguy

While I am a long term buy-and-holder, I do have to admit that "this time it does seem different".

With Mark Carney suggesting that, unless the Europeans stop dickering around and come up with the equivalent of a trillion and a half Canadian dollars minimum or more--and fast--or that we will be facing a "calamity" (his word) in a matter of weeks, it does get one's attention.

Do you just sit tight and hope that a calamity can be avoided or do you gamble with your retirement money and stay invested with your fingers crossed and hope for the best?

In other words, are we face to face with a long term, deep, worldwide recession (or worse!) or will the Europeans come up with the necessary cash at the last minute thereby avoiding this calamity??

If I were younger, and didn't need the money for a few decades, all of this would be academic but one's view of things changes with his timeline.

How would you feel if your portfolio suddenly lost 50 per cent or even much more of it's value in a matter of just a few hours or a few days?

Given the shaky world economy, this is not beyond the realm of possibility. 

Just ask Mr. Carney!!


----------



## fatcat

> In other words, are we face to face with a long term, deep, worldwide recession (or worse!) or will the Europeans come up with the necessary cash at the last minute thereby avoiding this calamity??


 that is a large hurdle and the number may be more like 2 trillion CAD ... 

and if that hurdle is cleared then we go back to the usa where wages are falling and home ownership, the backbone of the american economy, is going down the crapper 

and then there is the republicans who, if they get in in 2012 (looking more likely) are going to cut spending (and wages) to the bone and further exacerbate the problem .... 

(oh yeah, and china may be about to do a giant belly flop)

companies have lots of cash an good earnings lately, how can they keep it up ?


----------



## ddkay

There were rumours again this morning that the US would bail out Europe. Repubs are going to have fun with that one.


----------



## ddkay

RTRS: Senior emerging economy G20 source says believes IMF needs USD 350bln additional capital***

RTRS: G20 source says any IMF recapitalisation plan would not be part of Eurozone rescue package for now

RTRS: G20 source says options under consideration are bilateral loans, SPV's or not purchase agreements

RTRS: G20 source says G20 are also talking about ways to recapitalise World Bank whose resources may be put to similar use

Combined balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BoE & BoJ now total $8.1 trillion (20-30% of their respective GDPs) -- #BofA Merrill Lynch

Countdown until Republicans come out against funding IMF in 3....2....

@Reuters: U.S. rejects plan to strengthen IMF in euro zone crisis http://reut.rs/qjrea3


----------



## ddkay

Rut roh



> RBC Says Hedge Funds Targeting Canadian Banks
> 
> Oct 14 2011 | 10:49am ET
> 
> Hedge funds are shorting Canadian banks, convinced their shares—which have held up well this year compared to their global counterparts—are due for a fall.
> 
> “The hedge fund community has shown an increased interest in shorting Canadian bank shares of late,” RBC Dominion Securities, the brokerage unit of Royal Bank of Canada, said in a research note this week. “While we recognize downside risks in a recessionary scenario, we ultimately believe Canadian banks will hold up relatively better than other sectors in the event of a downturn.”
> 
> Shares in Canada’s five biggest banks—RBC, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, TD, Bank of Nova Scotia and Bank of Montreal—trade at some of the highest price-earnings multiples in the industry.
> 
> Canada’s strong economy carried the banks through the financial crisis, but foreign investors are now looking at the country’s rising household debt and wondering what will happen if the housing market cools.
> 
> “The key investment concern from U.S.-based investors is the Canadian consumer’s health, and the level of indebtedness in the mortgage market,” Cheryl Pate, a New York-based analyst with Morgan Stanley, which has a “neutral” rating on Canada’s banking industry, told the Globe and Mail. “We are looking broadly for a slowdown, but I would say it’s a slowdown to a normalized level.”
> 
> The Globe points out that although Canadian banks may look expensive compared to their global counterparts, other measures show their valuations are par for the course: the banks now trade at an average of 11.5 times earnings, versus an average of 11 for the past decade.
> 
> “The Canadian banks are great companies with very durable business models, but we would be careful with the idea that the Canadian banks are immune to global events,” Rob Wessel, managing partner at Hamilton Capital, a Toronto-based fund manager specializing in financial services stocks, told the paper.


----------



## andrewf

God I hope we don't get roped into buying European debt through IMF/World Bank. That is a roundabout way for Canada to take on the debt of basketcases.

They need to default. It's not complicated. Let Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and possibly Spain/Italy default. Banks will fail. That's okay. Guarantee deposits. Wipe out equity and give bondholders a haircut. This should not require any government borrowing to finance, just credible guarantees to prevent a bank run. Pension funds will feel pain, but if we're going to spend borrowed government dollars fixing anything, it would be better to do it directly by topping up pensions. Greece and Portugal may want to gracefully leave the Euro. Let them--it was a mistake for them to join originally.


----------



## HaroldCrump

andrewf said:


> give bondholders a haircut.


^ but therein lies the core of the problem.
This is the contagion/counterparty default that is at the heart of the problem.
So many ostensibly unimpeachable banks, pension funds, insurance companies, etc. own this toxic debt.
It is the RE CDOs all over again.

This is what happens when stupid governments keep interest rates artificially low for extended periods of time.



> This should not require any government borrowing to finance, just credible guarantees to prevent a bank run.


Govt. financing will be required to re-capitalize the banks and financial institutions after your so-called haircut.



> Pension funds will feel pain, but if we're going to spend borrowed government dollars fixing anything, it would be better to do it directly by topping up pensions.


Why?
First, govt. kept interest rates low, causing the pension funds to buy all this toxic debt, and now rob even more money from tax payers to bailout these fat cats?
How many future generations do we need to rob to fix this?


----------



## webber22

Markets are holding up pretty well today, looking forward to some big-name earnings next week like AAPL


----------



## ddkay

The fate of our economy depends on a phone 

SPDR breakdowns showing relative strength to the SP500 by sector since August 9th


----------



## andrewf

HaroldCrump said:


> ^ but therein lies the core of the problem.
> This is the contagion/counterparty default that is at the heart of the problem.
> So many ostensibly unimpeachable banks, pension funds, insurance companies, etc. own this toxic debt.
> It is the RE CDOs all over again.


Yes, it will ripple through the financial system. Equity holders will absorb most of the pain. Bondholders will see a haircut. The banks/insurance companies can be recapitalized by raising new equity or by issuing bonds senior to current bond holders. Governments shouldn't have to do this. If fear freezes credit markets, governments can step in and offer new senior debt at reasonable (non-sweetheart) rates, then divest themselves of the debt once markets thaw. I see no reason to make bondholders whole. It merely feeds the moral hazard that led us here.



> Govt. financing will be required to re-capitalize the banks and financial institutions after your so-called haircut.


This is often asserted, but if you look at the balance sheets, you can see that if you knock off enough debt (excluding deposits and derivative liabilities), these institutions can be made solvent again without capital injections. The debt-holders who take the haircut can be given equity in the institution as compensation--they can be entitled to the residual value of the firm.



> Why?
> First, govt. kept interest rates low, causing the pension funds to buy all this toxic debt, and now rob even more money from tax payers to bailout these fat cats?
> How many future generations do we need to rob to fix this?


I'm referring to public pensions in particular. If we are going to use any government money for anything, it should be to shore up depositors and pensioners. As far as I'm concerned, the equity and bondholders should take their lumps. That's how free enterprise works.

I also disagree that interest rates are 'artificially' low. If rates were any higher, we would fall into a deflationary depression (we're on the precipice as it is). Is that what you suggest as an alternative?


----------



## HaroldCrump

andrewf said:


> Governments shouldn't have to do this. If fear freezes credit markets, governments can step in and offer new senior debt at reasonable (non-sweetheart) rates, then divest themselves of the debt once markets thaw. I see no reason to make bondholders whole. It merely feeds the moral hazard that led us here.


Agreed. However, I think you are under-estimating the scope of the domino effect.
There are various kinds of toxic debt out there...the RE ones haven't flushed through the system yet and now we the govt. debt.



> I also disagree that interest rates are 'artificially' low. If rates were any higher, we would fall into a deflationary depression (we're on the precipice as it is). Is that what you suggest as an alternative?


Artificially low interest rates is what got us here to begin with.
Esp. post 9/11 world.
The seeds of this free monetary policy insanity were sown during the Clinton years, but after 9/11, they really made no excuses and went all out.
Of course, it suited the US very well because it allowed them to keep importing junk from abroad and spending like drunken sailors.
The rest of the developed world had to more or less follow the suit to maintain their exchange ratios.
At the same time, the same governments influenced and dominated by lobbyists and socialists opened the fiscal spending floodgates.
We have been seeing the results in the last 3 years.

As for now, I still believe interest rates are artificially low, esp. in Canada.
How can you say we will fall into a deflationary depression?
This is all fud being created by those that want this type of monetary/fiscal policy to continue...their fortunes are tied to this.

Right now we have excess of money supply...we need to tighten that by raising rates.
During periods of recession, money supply increases vis-a-vis demand (for obvious reasons).
The purpose of monetary policy (and thus the Fed. Reserve) should be to counter-balance that by increasing/decreasing supply of money as needed.

This Helicopter policy is a** backwards.


----------



## fatcat

> They need to default. It's not complicated. Let Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and possibly Spain/Italy default. Banks will fail. That's okay.


 andrew, i think this scenario has everyone from sarkozy to bernanke to flaherty scared poopless ... it essentially is a full on panic scenario ...

on the other hand, perhaps we need to flush it all down the drain and at least find some level ground under our feet



> Markets are holding up pretty well today, looking forward to some big-name earnings next week like AAPL


 this is already baked in to the healthy uptick in apple this week, anything less than a home run will really give the markets the jitters ... apple always hits home runs


----------



## Belguy

The Dow has just had it's biggest weekly gain since July '09!!

I think that what we have been experiencing this month is something called 'a dead cat bounce'!!

Canadian and American taxpayers will be participating in the recapitalizing of Europe. Does that make you feel great or what??!!

Kevin O'Leary claims that there will be no more growth in Europe at least in Amanda's lifetime!!

Mark Carney's interview will be shown on 'Mansbridge One on One' on CBC News Network Saturday at both 5:30 and 9:30 PM EDT. On this program, he will tell us all a very scary Halloween story!!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Canadian and American taxpayers will be participating in the recapitalizing of Europe. Does that make you feel great or what??!!


See my face?


----------



## andrewf

Harold, bailing out the banks is a worse outcome than letting them fail, but that is just my opinion. It is ripping off the bandage slowly, over generations, rather than doing it all at once and unshackling the PIGS economies to recover. If you read 'The Time is Different', you will see how the procession of credit bubbles in the past have resulted in defaults and a contraction in credit. If we just shift credit around, we are only prolonging the agony. Putting crushing debt burdens on the rest of Europe to save reckless investors is a far worse outcome than allowing the financial industry to have go through a shakeout.


----------



## dogcom

I agree with you on this andrewf as bad as it might be it would be better to just get on with it and let them fail. 

I also think instead of higher interest rates and I think you might like this andrewf and that is there should be a tax put on newly borrowed money to slow the economy. Also the tax would apply if you are not locked into your mortgage term. This money must then go to the national debt and would be illegal to put into general revenue and then would come off when the economy slows down enough.

Of course this would put the control of money more into the hands of the people and not the central bank which they would not like.


----------



## Belguy

I really question whether we want to experience a calamity of having sovereign nations and banks fail because you just can't tell where the cascading affect will end.

At the very least, an immediate deep and long lasting recession (or worse!) would result although we may not be able to avoid that scenario anyway.

At best, we may be entering a period of no growth in Europe, the U.S., and potentially elsewhere that may well last for ten or twenty years.

If we can somehow avoid it, some of us will have to end up eating crow.

We can hope!!!


----------



## fatcat

> Harold, bailing out the banks is a worse outcome than letting them fail, but that is just my opinion. It is ripping off the bandage slowly, over generations, rather than doing it all at once and unshackling the PIGS economies to recover. If you read 'The Time is Different', you will see how the procession of credit bubbles in the past have resulted in defaults and a contraction in credit. If we just shift credit around, we are only prolonging the agony. Putting crushing debt burdens on the rest of Europe to save reckless investors is a far worse outcome than allowing the financial industry to have go through a shakeout.


 i kind of agree with you ... the uncertainty is going to be worse than just ripping the bandaid off .... 

time to buy more gold ...


----------



## sags

Michelle Backman........Herman Cain.........Rick Perry

Question..........Would you bail out the banks?

Answer............It is all Obama's fault.

Question..........What would you do to fix the situation?

Answer............It is all Obama's fault.

Question..........Would you put more regulation on banks?

Answer............It is all Obama's fault. Any other questions?

I don't think we can count on any leadership from the US for a long time.


----------



## dogcom

Your right sags all you have to do is blame Obama and the critics on the republican side can only nod in approval. When Clinton was in power it was the same thing and then George Bush got elected and ran the deficit up and out of control. Before the jig is up he handed it to Obama so they could do it again.

It reminds me of the wife where everything is your fault and when it is their fault it is because of something you did to distract them or something and it is still your fault. Republicans are smart to follow this logic.


----------



## andrewf

dogcom said:


> I also think instead of higher interest rates and I think you might like this andrewf and that is there should be a tax put on newly borrowed money to slow the economy.


Why on earth would we want to slow the economy! We have abundant spare capacity that could be put to work.

No, I don't like that idea! One way to vacuum up extra dollars if the economy is overheating is to increase consumption taxes (ie, HST). Our economy is not overheating by any stretch, so I would not look for any rises in HST for that purpose. And I don't mind higher interest rates eventually when warranted by inflation. Ideally we will get back to a 2-3% real interest rate, from our ~-1% real interest rate environment we are in now. But that needs to be driven by our inflation targeting policy.


----------



## dogcom

I agree interest rates don't need to be raised at this time.

My point however is to hit the right target when putting out the tax to pay down the debt only. HST hits everyone where as the debt tax hits the target and only punishes those who borrow as an interest rate would do.

The direction I speak of holds people to their word, keeps them accountable, sets targets and goals, doesn't allow for hidden agendas and gets things done.

Andrewf you and other forum buddies want a system that is going to fail as it has done by racking up the debt Canada has now. You also set the wrong impression on people as RIM has done even though it has money hurting its brand. You call for the brand of Canada to be tarnished and people are then not interested or don't understand where their tax dollars go leaving them to not care.

You all claim using your models of what should work but do not understand the true effects and the moving targets. The markets are the same thing and run a lot on how people see clearly what companies are doing. If there is no certainty then we get the volatility and the crazy stuff we see going on.


----------



## sags

It may be more difficult to get people to accept the austerity measures, than for the bankers and politicians to figure out a solution on paper.


----------



## ddkay

http://www.livestream.com/occupywallstnyc

http://www.livestream.com/occupytoronto

Most OWS events are scheduled to continue "indefinitely".. they're asking people to volunteer help and supplies to carry it out as long as possible

Can anybody guess what the sequel will be? I always hope it stays peaceful, but it only takes 1 black block moron to show up and trash everything before police become relentless and violent towards everyone, adding fuel to the fire and bringing out more angry protesters. It's all downhill from here. Sigh.


----------



## andrewf

dogcom, I have no idea what you're saying. I don't know how to respond. I'm not sure I understand what ideas you're attributing to me. What does RIM have to do with anything?


----------



## dogcom

RIM has been having brand problems that has got much worse lately with the way they handled the system failure they just had. Or Toyota had a problem with the way they handled the accelerator problem a few years back hurting their brand.

Confidence and perception people have of your brand is extremely important to keeping up with future sales and thus making money down the road. Because this is a money topic I am trying to tie it into my message. So knowing and seeing where the money goes in my ideas of taxes help Canadians feel confident about their country and it makes it much easier to achieve goals like paying down the debt. Your way is using general revenue and gives no idea for where Canadians see their money is going, seeing things get done or goals actually being achieved. The HST feels more like a punishment and doesn't leave a very good impression on people as an example thus making your goal, whatever that is as very hard to accomplish.

We also have huge debt in Canada and that is because of the way we handle our taxes in the general revenue scheme of things. The only reason it isn't much worse is because we got together in the 90's and seriously wanted to do something about our debt and deficit. We had goals and determination to see it done something the US and other countries don't seem to have the will to do. In the US it is because the public has such a poor perception of taxes and where they might go that they do not want anything to do with them as part of a solution.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> http://www.livestream.com/occupywallstnyc
> 
> http://www.livestream.com/occupytoronto.


Just a bunch of idiots.

It was so annoying I had to turn it off after 5 seconds. 

These people need to get up and do something. Go to the barber, get cleaned up and look presentable, and go get a job. Hanging out in the street all day is a waste.


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> Just a bunch of idiots.
> 
> It was so annoying I had to turn it off after 5 seconds.
> 
> These people need to get up and do something. Go to the barber, get cleaned up and look presentable, and go get a job. Hanging out in the street all day is a waste.


It's not just black and white, you may not agree and think that they are just a bunch of idiots or simply professional **** disturbers (and some of them are), but there are also plenty of poeple without jobs (especially in US and Europe) who have rights to be angry with what's going on (bailouts, unjust pay to CEO or bankrupt companies, fraudsters that will never spend a day in jail, lobbysts and politicians who go hand in hand, and on and on and on..)


----------



## ddkay

Protests and revolution are part of a free society, you could always move to China if you want to see them crushed and protesters jailed/killed the second they start.


----------



## KaeJS

Homer,

I don't want to sound rude, but that's how life is. Some people are on the top of the food chain, others are not. If you're not, you need to do something differently to try to make it to the top.

There have been many people that have come from nothing and became somebody important. Regardless of the times we are in now, there have always been rough times. There are always ongoing issues.

It doesn't matter how angry these people are. I get angry all the time about people I co-exist with on this planet, or rules I must follow in society, but I don't stand in the street and cause **** over it. I've got a brain inside my head that I listen to.

All I see when I look at these people in the streets are people that aren't smart enough or mature enough to figure it out yet. The fact of the matter is that most people don't care about these protests except for the people in the protest. To everyone else, its just a nuisance and embarrassment, kind of like the riot that took place in Vancouver over a stupid hockey game.

You know what the people on Wall Street probably think about these protests? They probably video tape it during the day and have a good laugh watching it on their big screen TV at home later that night with their wife, sipping on some expensive imported wine.

*Darwin.*

This is just the modern world's way of Natural Selection. And I've gotta tell ya, no animal stayed alive in the jungle by standing in the same place not accomplishing anything.

I'm a big believer in Darwin, and it's a dog-eat-dog world out there. That's why there _are_ fraudsters.

But I stand by my case that most of these protesters are 20-something's that don't have anything better to do than TRY to "stick it to the man".

Fools.


----------



## ddkay

What keeps most people employed (probably like 90%) is that the technology needed to replace them isn't around yet. Unless you're actually in the 1%, that is, you can quit your job today and live like a King for the rest of your life, I don't understand people that are anti-OWS, against people that are just trying to have their voices heard.

You think 10 years from now a Siri-like artificial intelligence program couldn't replace your call center job at BMO? Come on now, you're just kidding yourself. Labour was the first sector to go, services are next...


----------



## Abha

Nothing will come about of these protests but I sure am glad people are protesting. 

Any look at the gap in income disparity among lower, middle and upper class individuals is alarming at best. 

Also, there are tons of capable and talented people who will never have the means to go to school because of a lack of funds or because they will have to turn their attention to working in order to avoid becoming homeless.


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> Homer,
> 
> I don't want to sound rude, but that's how life is. Some people are on the top of the food chain, others are not. If you're not, you need to do something differently to try to make it to the top.
> 
> There have been many people that have come from nothing and became somebody important. Regardless of the times we are in now, there have always been rough times. There are always ongoing issues.
> 
> It doesn't matter how angry these people are. I get angry all the time about people I co-exist with on this planet, or rules I must follow in society, but I don't stand in the street and cause **** over it. I've got a brain inside my head that I listen to.
> 
> All I see when I look at these people in the streets are people that aren't smart enough or mature enough to figure it out yet. The fact of the matter is that most people don't care about these protests except for the people in the protest. To everyone else, its just a nuisance and embarrassment, kind of like the riot that took place in Vancouver over a stupid hockey game.
> 
> You know what the people on Wall Street probably think about these protests? They probably video tape it during the day and have a good laugh watching it on their big screen TV at home later that night with their wife, sipping on some expensive imported wine.
> 
> *Darwin.*
> 
> This is just the modern world's way of Natural Selection. And I've gotta tell ya, no animal stayed alive in the jungle by standing in the same place not accomplishing anything.
> 
> I'm a big believer in Darwin, and it's a dog-eat-dog world out there. That's why there _are_ fraudsters.
> 
> But I stand by my case that most of these protesters are 20-something's that don't have anything better to do than TRY to "stick it to the man".
> 
> Fools.


KaeJ, in time you will realize life is not as simple as that.


----------



## fatcat

most congressmen and members of parliament watch their mail carefully ..

they know how many they get and about what issues on a regular basis ..

when they see a critical mass of letters pour in about a certain issue, they know somethings up ... there is a political ratio of how many "non-writers" each letter represent (because, by far, most people just gripe in silence and don't write)

these wall streeters are strictly symbolic but if you don't see the symbolism they represent, you are missing something

they are speaking for a lot of people and those in power should wake up and take notice


----------



## ddkay

We had one of these bad boys at my old office, a human had that job once http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwyyLIczX9s


----------



## fatcat

> I don't want to sound rude, but that's how life is. Some people are on the top of the food chain, others are not. If you're not, you need to do something differently to try to make it to the top.


kae, forgive me, i don't want to sound rude either my friend, but you demonstrate only your youth with such statements ...

what about the *birth lottery* man ? 

some of us are born disabled, with low iq's, birth defects, brutal fathers, alcoholic mothers, lousy prenatal care, ever heard of fetal alcohol syndrome ?, it sure isn't the babies fault and they are never going to run a fortune 500 company .... 

i am old enough to know that the ayn randian bootstrap argument is utter crap (and the statistics bear this out, the vast majority of rich people are born of rich and advantaged people)

from day 1, life for some people never stops getting anything but damn hard, day after day ... no matter what they do or how hard they work ...


----------



## webber22

Please move this discussion to the "Favourite sunny vacation spots" thread


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> You think 10 years from now a Siri-like artificial intelligence program couldn't replace your call center job at BMO? Come on now, you're just kidding yourself. Labour was the first sector to go, services are next...


I'm not saying that it can't be replaced.

What I'm saying is that I think these people could be applying for jobs, being creative, thinking of ideas, building a website, learning - anything, instead of standing the street.


----------



## KaeJS

I guess I am being judgemental, but all I see is a bunch of people with paintings on their faces and funky clothes talking about what they think they know.

With quotes like

"This is our park"

"Send this to the police"

"That's not my department"

"Adjusting my hat and scratching my greasy hair"

"I'm in charge, they're in charge, you're in charge, everybody's in charge, my MACBOOK is in charge" -- wtf?

etc. etc.

This is going nowhere fast. But that's just my opinion.


----------



## KaeJS

fatcat,

no offence taken, it's part of growing up and being 21. 

I agree with what you have said in regards to the birthday lottery and such.

However, the people in power just don't think like that. They want their power. I don't think that's going to change. When you have a group of powerful people in charge, and they all want to stay rich and powerful -- its going to take a lot to change that.


----------



## KaeJS

While watching the live feed again, I noticed this post by someone in the live chat:

_"TevinnK: I think that everybody NOT there sees you guys as ignorant young people who can't actually do anything, and as young people who just want to do something... what do you say to the nation?"_

^ This guy has it right.


----------



## ddkay

Easier said than done, people are inherently creative, how many artists or musicians blow up and become huge enough to live off royalties and other 'passive income'?

We can't all be farmers either.

It's the easily replaceable, non-creative rote service jobs that are the lifeline for most of society.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_sector_composition


----------



## Toronto.gal

I'm very grateful to live in a country that gives us the constitutional right to peaceful protest, but unfortunately there will always be examples of mob mentality & those who are unable to exercise self- restraint, joining simply for the purpose of causing trouble [a certain 17 year old Water Polo player from Vancouver comes to mind]. 

Given the power of social media, I have not been surprised at these public protests taking place around the globe now; indeed many are desperate/angry at the many issues that could no longer go unnoticed, such as the seemingly infinite & obscene corporate greed, rising poverty, the millions unemployed, homeless, etc. 

Silence isn't always golden.

My only dislike is when I hear comments that these protests were inspired by the Arab Spring, in fact, I find such comparisons rather offensive as no one is trying to oust their respective governments nor are they being brutally killed in response.

*KaeJS:* you do have some valid points, but at 21, obviously have not lived long enough to know/think the same as a 30/40/50+ year old would, but from what you have written on this forum, it appears that you have always been a hard-working person, so I understand what you were trying to say.

*"Generation unlucky: From boom to gloom."*

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/15/generation-unlucky-from-boom-to-gloom/


----------



## larry81




----------



## fatcat

> fatcat,
> 
> no offence taken, it's part of growing up and being 21.


 peace bro, you are a smart guy and you are working hard to get ahead and live the life you want to live ... you deserve to be rewarded for your efforts

when i was your age i was sitting in front of trucks blocking highways protesting the bombing of cambodia and so on ...

these guys in wall street are a ragtag bunch and they're partying too ... no sweat, we will survive it ... i think they are saying something important if you look through the pot smoke and the quasi-anarchy...


----------



## Jon_Snow

Okay, I have to weigh in on this.

As some members of this forum may know from perhaps seeing my networth profile (before I removed it), I have managed to put myself in a pretty good financial position over time. I have done this without a "birth lottery" or some such advantage. I have simply worked my a-- off for many years. No university education. I started when I was 18 as little more than a manual labourer. Even now, at 39, while I have moved up the ladder in my field somewhat, it is still a GRIND. Nobody wants to be a "ditchdigger", yet you know what, I quite often find myself at the bottom of a ditch, shovel in hand, mud spilling over my gumboots, feet numb and wrinkled at the end of my shift. A particularly nasty winter a few years back, it was so cold and wet that my fingers became so numb that I couldn't undo the butttons of my rain gear so that I could answer the call of nature... so, yeah I experienced a brief sensation of warmth (and humiliation) that day. The miserable days I have experienced at work are beyond count. Many days I hate my job and I want to quit. Yet 20 years later I still do it.

I am not saying that I am made of sterner stuff than these protestors... or maybe I am. I respect the right to protest, but part of me wants to shout at them to pick up a shovel and work! 

Rant over.


----------



## larry81

I share your feelings Jon.


----------



## ddkay

All higher than thou and noble people should march to St. James Park with your management buddies and HR dept and personally recruit the jobless protesters and homeless since there's such a huge labour shortage out there. That accomplishes a lot more than patronizing them for not working hard enough.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> All higher than thou and noble people should march to St. James Park with your management buddies and HR dept and personally recruit the jobless protesters and homeless since there's such a huge labour shortage out there. That accomplishes a lot more than patronizing them for not working hard enough.


Personally, I am anti bailout for the bank and the financial elite but I would like the gov to bail me out of my 90k ivy league art degree so I can purchase the new iphone 4s while continue writing my far-left blog out of my parent basement on my macbook pro.

Viva la rLOVEution !


----------



## sags

Jon.......

You make a good point, that jobs "could" be available for young people, willing to put on a pair of work boots and put in a day's work. The kind of jobs that aren't outsourced.

They "could" have a job........lots of jobs..........if our government would "wise up", ignore the kind of austerity rhetoric that will lead to failure, and implement a badly needed infrastructure plan for the future.

Our bridges are falling down. Our roadways are becoming so crowded they are risking gridlock in major urban areas. Our water and waste water systems are 100 years old and falling apart, public transit is badly needed................

But, my son worked at a company that builds concrete tunnel rings, large concrete bridges and similar products.

They have laid off employees and are in the process of laying off more.

The reason is there is an absence of government spending and leadership.


----------



## ddkay

That goes back to my earlier point, generic service jobs are being eliminated and 90% in that sector will eventually be put on the chopping block as technology phases out the need for their presence. Who made it a requirement for a general university degree to land an entry level position until the market was saturated and they're nothing special anymore?


----------



## ddkay

Let's all point fingers and not do anything about anything.

Anyone with a brain watching the protests that actually has hiring power isn't complaining because they know there are usually more applicants than jobs filled, and the people above them usually aren't going to dish out more from their own pockets for additional skills training. You're either [over]qualified and maybe hired or you aren't.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> Let's all point fingers and not do anything about anything.


Maybe my perception is distorted but from my point of view, this is exactly what the protesters are currently doing. Do they have any precise demands or agenda ?


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Maybe my perception is distorted but from my point of view, this is exactly what the protesters are currently doing


Hm. Nope. Not distorted.

Results came back, and...

Looks like your perception is healthy!


----------



## ddkay

Both sides need to express the will to change things, and that starts with understanding the message, not writing them all off as dumb unqualified useless and might as well walk down Yonge St. and drown yourself in the lake.

These people have been marginalised there is little leeway in what they can do unless the other side co-operates.

The sad part is the 'poorness' developed markets are feeling now is how most people in emerging countries have lived and had to grow out of for the past several decades. Talk to a Brazilian that lived through the Latin American debt criss and ask if this picture of public fury looks familiar, chances are it is.


----------



## larry81




----------



## ddkay

That's funny until his mom loses her job. How many pay cheques away is that family from homelessness?

Not everyone can say, we've built up and saved so much wealth, even if it means forgoing the latest luxury, none of us have to work for the rest of our waking lives.


----------



## KaeJS

larry,

That kid needs to be smacked over the head with a fucking iPad. 

ddkay,

The economy isn't that bad that you can't get jobs. These people are just crying.


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> larry,
> 
> That kid needs to be smacked over the head with a fucking iPad.
> 
> ddkay,
> 
> The economy isn't that bad that you can't get jobs. These people are just crying.


Listen kid, previously I was trying to be polite since I have a son just slightly younger than you and can relate the crap coming out of his mouth to yours.

Now here is a word of advise to you, preach less, listen more and learn, all three would be a huge benefit to you. You need a bit of humility.
Swearing doesn't make you sound any smarter either.


----------



## KaeJS




----------



## KaeJS

Homerhomer said:


> Now here is a word of* advise* to you, preach less, listen more and learn, all three would be a huge benefit to you. *You need a bit of humility*.
> Swearing doesn't make you sound any* smarter* either.


The correct word to use is "advice".

I would "advise" you use the words correctly. 

Did I just preach, again?


----------



## HaroldCrump

andrewf said:


> Why on earth would we want to slow the economy! We have abundant spare capacity that could be put to work.
> 
> No, I don't like that idea! One way to vacuum up extra dollars if the economy is overheating is to increase consumption taxes (ie, HST). Our economy is not overheating by any stretch, so I would not look for any rises in HST for that purpose.


I agree, the economy is not overheating and there is no need to slow it down (except in India, China, Brazil, etc.)
Also, "flat" consumption taxes like HST unfairly tax the lower and middle income families vs. well off families.
Consumption taxes like HST are the worst policy in both good times and bad.

Anyhow, back to interest rates : the purpose of interest rates is not just to cool an over heating economy.
It is also used (must be used) to regulate the money supply in the economy during good times and bad.
During good times, there is a lot of demand for money for capital investment (as well as consumption).
During bad times, there is less demand for money for capital investment (as well as consumption).
In bad times, if money supply is not restrained, it simply seeks out asset classes for return.
That is what creates asset bubbles like dot com, RE, gold, etc.
Why else do you think we invariably witness some bubble or the other immediately following a period of recession?

Higher interest rates also ensure that only the asset classes and investments that are truly profitable receive the capital expenditure, thereby weeding out lower return, inefficient and high cost businesses/industries.

Therefore, it ensures efficient allocation of capital.

We need higher, not lower, interest rates right now.


----------



## fatcat

the _tea party_ was started by people who were on social security and medicare and were holding up signs saying "no more socialism!" .....

the tea party and the wall streeters are acting before thinking but like the tea party, perhaps a movement will grow out of it

to those that think they are bunch of bums, i would suggest a look at the widening gap between rich and poor and shrinking of the middle class ... if you think this is good for capitalism and the free market, i would like to know how ?

you can't grow a company if no one can afford your product ... increasingly this is what is happening ... a small pool of rich people is not enough to build a functioning economy


----------



## ddkay

A plan has to be put in motion and show progress before it's credible, especially after many other failed plans. Greece says it has cash until mid-November which probably means sometime sooner. October 23 and the week of October 24-28 are still key dates for me.

If you're long right now you only have one question to ask yourself. What if you're wrong?

If you have no position, you can take advantage of a move in either direction when the time is right. Markets go up and down not up or down. Missing a two week rally shouldn't matter if you actually expect a period of "growth" to follow.


----------



## Belguy

The protestors are against rich people. As a stock investor, I resent that!!!


----------



## Argonaut

I hypothesize that the so called widening gap between the classes is mostly the result of inflation. There are those in the lower and middle classes that live paycheque to paycheque, and their networth is, and has always been effectively zero. When accounting for inflation, zero is still zero. Meanwhile the millionaires of yesteryear have become the billionaires of today, while the effective value of a dollar has decreased exponentially.

Think of the families of the early part of the 20th century, living in crowded houses without much in the way of possessions. Nowadays everyone has every gadget and family sizes are smaller. The work week is shorter, vacation time is longer. This is what some have called the "Progress Paradox", as things get better and people feel worse about it.

In conclusion, the protestors should go home.


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> In conclusion, the protestors should go home.


If only it was that simple.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/16/opinion/sunday/lets-admit-it-globalization-has-losers.html


----------



## webber22

Yes, that Nytimes article sums it up. Only one response to all of this is to:

*BUY CANADIAN*

Dump your bimmers, benzs, korean crap and chinese ****. The generals of the previous wars are turning in their graves right now, seeing the Germans and Chinese run the industrial world.

I actually agree with a lot of the things on the Occupy website, namely with the politicians being useless and in bed with the corporations. But they don't offer too many answers I'm afraid.


----------



## larry81

webber22 said:


> Yes, that Nytimes article sums it up. Only one response to all of this is to:
> 
> *BUY CANADIAN*
> 
> Dump your bimmers, benzs, korean crap and chinese ****.


can you recommend me a great *Canadian *auto maker !!!??


----------



## Eder

Occupy China!


----------



## andrewf

Lots of cars are made in Canada. Buy a Corolla. Or a Civic.


----------



## ddkay

Autos and auto parts are almost always made and assembled close to the market they're sold in. Canada has never had any significant auto brands, we have a pretty enormous parts manufacturer though... Magna International (MG.TO)


----------



## sags

I don't think the Tea Party has a leader yet........do they?

Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman, Rick Perry.........who's next?

I'm not sure they have an official agenda yet either, unless "smaller government" means something in particular.

Despite not having an official leadership, the Tea Party managed to affect Congressional mid-term elections enough to change the political landscape.

Perhaps the OWS will follow a similar track.

Maybe that is why the right wing media and politicians are so concerned.

A voting block of socially progressive people........don't vote Republican.

The Republicans won't go anywhere near the OWS.......but the Democrats are free to coddle their support.

It will be a really interesting 2012 Presidential election year.

All this "history" happening before our eyes. It's getting a bit much.


----------



## ddkay

SP500 futures down 17 points from 4a.m. highs @ 1230. Are _they_ back?


----------



## Homerhomer

I wouldn't be surprised if they were back, top of the trading range, Europe didn't accomplish anything, NY manufacturing data bad, on the other hand Citi's accounting entries created a good profit


----------



## ddkay

We're teetering on the 5 DMA, I started a little position in TZA


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> We're teetering on the 5 DMA, I started a little position in TZA
> 
> [/IMG]


what is it DMA?


----------



## ddkay

daily moving average


----------



## Argonaut

Right on queue, the charts align with the news and we are headed for the downward leg on the 100 point swing. Will cash out my puts at 1150, if we see 1100 again I'll buy calls there. The market could prove me wrong, but I don't see much reason for higher prices in the short term.


----------



## ddkay

Here are some EPS estimates for tomorrow


----------



## ddkay

More news about the EU Summit on Sunday, this time from Merkel. Unicorn tears are everywhere. 


> BERLIN (Dow Jones)--German Chancellor Angela Merkel expects a package of measures towards solving the euro zone debt crisis to be agreed on Oct. 23 , but has warned against hoping that all of Europe's debt woes would be resolved, her spokesman said Monday.
> 
> Spokesman Steffen Seibert said a "package" of measures would be agreed upon at the EU summit in Brussels this coming Sunday.
> 
> "But nevertheless, the chancellor reminds [everyone] that the dreams that are emerging again, that on Monday everything will be resolved and everything will be over will again not be fulfilled," Seibert said.
> 
> At the Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors this weekend, Germany and France said that they had agreed on broad outlines of a package that included recapitalization of systemically relevant European banks and leveraging the euro zone bailout fund to give it more firepower. Agreements between Europe's two biggest economies was expected to set the stage for a broader European agreement on resolving Greece's debt woes, creating a powerful bailout mechanism, and shoring up European banks against sovereign default.
> 
> Although Paris and Berlin stressed that details on each of these points still needed to be worked out and that the deadline for a comprehensive plan is the Cannes summit of G20 leaders, financial markets were stunned by the appparently cautious comments by Merkel's spokesman.
> 
> Merkel has repeatedly said recently that the euro zone debt crisis will take years to resolve, but there has been optimism that Germany and France were finally moving toward a comprehensive solution to the crisis.
> Seibert said the chancellor considers what has been achieved so far as " important steps on a long journey, a journey that will certainly continue well into next year."
> 
> Merkel's comments were made last week--before the G20 meeting--at a meeting of IG Metall trade union members.
> 
> -By Berlin Bureau , Dow Jones Newswires, +49 30 2888 4128
> 
> (END) Dow Jones Newswires
> 10-17-11 0807ET
> Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


----------



## fatcat

1/3 of the entire s&p reports earnings this week ...


----------



## ddkay

Out TZA with 3.22% gain. More financials report before open tomorrow but I'm not going to risk holding, too many hysterical bulls especially with AAPL earnings tomorrow.


----------



## ddkay

I was going to use VXX.TO but it's not very liquid, only 83,571 shares were traded today compared to 25 million for the same NYSE version.. is this what you guys usually use when buying the VIX from Canada? There's also HUV.TO but that's even worse


----------



## ddkay

lol France is preparing to raid Moody's Paris office

"Over the next three months, Moody's will monitor and assess the stable outlook in terms of the government's progress in implementing these measures, while taking into account any potential adverse economic or financial market developments."


----------



## Belguy

Germany took a step back today from it's earlier promises and fears immediately returned that we may be facing another total freeze in the financial system. Fears that insufficient action will come from European politicians renewed fears of a world wide financial catastrophe. A financial breakdown is closer today than it was last week. Some are even suggesting that we are on the verge of a run on some of the banks.

Each day draws us closer!!


----------



## KaeJS

^ This should have been no surprise.


.... unlike Sunlife's clusterflock of a $621M loss!


----------



## sags

Flaherty said Canada will follow the US lead, and not put any more money into the IMF to bailout Europe.

It appears they expect Germany to shoulder the load, while they sit on the sidelines and offer their unwanted free advice.

Merkel fired a shot across their bow, with her statement.

Ante up boys...........or let the chips fall where they may.


----------



## Belguy

They expect the German and French politicians to come through with the trillion and a half dollar bailout but they are not about to do that because they are politicians who are already concerned about their falling popularity and they will have to face the wrath of the voters sooner or later. Needless to say, German and French voters are not too happy these days. It's a complete mess!!

More market selloffs to come:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...cold-water-on-g20-debt-target/article2204057/


----------



## dogcom

Nobody should bailout Europe and let the cards fall where they may. Make sure deposit holders are secure and let the bond holders and so on fail. Canada should not put up any good money after bad.


----------



## Miser

If the US had let the banks fail who knows what would have happened.
I think we are about to find out soon.
It will just be much worse.
Artificial fiat based economies.


----------



## ddkay

Goldman loses its touch posts 393m quarterly loss $$


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> Goldman loses its touch posts 393m quarterly loss $$


They are ready for bailout and executive bonuses.


----------



## ddkay

ddkay said:


> Out TZA with 3.22% gain. More financials report before open tomorrow but I'm not going to risk holding, too many hysterical bulls especially with AAPL earnings tomorrow.


Bank of America posted profit in their cook books so all fins up! sure-why-not? bullishness is back! Watching Apple the rest of the week, two scenarios I'm thinking of are it goes parabolic again to hit 450-500, or it double topped and will start to fade


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> Goldman loses its touch posts 393m quarterly loss $$


I would have thought the stock would be crashed today but no, all hunky dorey  for now


----------



## Toronto.gal

Homerhomer said:


> all hunky dorey  for now


For now is right.


----------



## Argonaut

GS up 4% after a horrible quarter.. price is probably being manipulated by.. Goldman.


----------



## ddkay

chopchopchop, we're now below the 5DMA, still think the sky is falling. Just have to be patient, in a traders market "obvious" ideas rarely work. If sentiment does a 180 I'll be long on a sustainable move over 1250. But ultimately the EU bailout "plan" is going to fail. Exit underfunded EFSF bad dream enter underfunded continent nightmare.

Possible selloff after close? Neckline looks to be around 1190:


----------



## Homerhomer

I rarely get surprised by anything market related but today I am as close to puzzled as I can be.

GS has horrid numbers and stock is up, BOA has accounting numbers and stock is way up, IBM has decent numbers and forecast and the stock is down while the whole market is moving up.

Is there any rationale to all that? Please help


----------



## ddkay

France and Germany have reached an agreement to boost the EFSF to 2 trillion euros (unconfirmed)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/oct/18/france-and-germany-move-towards-2tn-euro-fund

Where did France and Germany get 2 trillion euros?


----------



## ddkay

The one word everyone is missing "The leaders of France and Germany *hope* to agree a deal that will assuage market uncertainties or, worse, volatility, in the run-up to the G20 summit in Cannes early next month"

Off to the races


----------



## ddkay

What a sad excuse of journalism, the first and second paragraphs contradict each other, 1: "reached an agreement" 2: "hope to agree".

Merkel's Spokesman Siebert says they are still in intensive talks.

Where will the next rumour come from, The Globe & Mail?


----------



## Homerhomer

In unrelated news scientists have engineered a new species of hybrid tree, they have named it currencium, so far only two varities are available, dollarium and euroliptus. No tangible benefits are knows for this plant, however certain individuals can pick from these trees whenever they want. It is thought the two plants feed on approximately 6 billion micro-organism who are thought to be irrelevant and not important.


----------



## ddkay

CNBC "The bears are on their last leg" Hahahaa.


----------



## Abha

As a Goldman shareholder I couldn't be happier with this manipulation.

Still down YTD but a happy surprise.

My real anticipation is for Apple in a few minutes.


----------



## ddkay

The moment of truth every fund manager and retail investor in the world has been waiting for!! Give it up for Apple Inc!!!

Unconfirmed Rumors Circulate that Apple Earnings May Have Been Leaked Early
> No numbers are yet available and the company has not released official earnings.
> NOTE: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is currently ticking higher after the close in advance of the company's post- Steve Jobs earnings announcement.

OFFICIAL RELEASE:


> CUPERTINO, Calif. --(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Apple(R) today announced financial results for its fiscal 2011 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2011 . The Company posted quarterly revenue of $28.27 billion and quarterly net profit of $6.62 billion , or $7.05 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $20.34 billion and net quarterly profit of $4.31 billion , or $4.64 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 40.3 percent compared to 36.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 63 percent of the quarter's revenue.
> 
> The Company sold 17.07 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 21 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 11.12 million iPads during the quarter, a 166 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 4.89 million Macs during the quarter, a 26 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 6.62 million iPods, a 27 percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.


*BIG MISS*

Tune into the conference call here http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq411/ @ 5PM EST


----------



## ddkay

This is the first EPS miss since 2004! Nothing lasts forever


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> This is the first EPS miss since 2004! Nothing lasts forever


AAPL down more than 6% in after market to $395 ... good thing I didn't have money to buy AAPL before earnings....


----------



## Argonaut

Gibor, that was your 777th post, and as forum luck has shown in the past.. you saved yourself some money with that luck.

This is my 666th post, and as such I will use the opportunity to bring doom and gloom and predict a big market haircut in the coming weeks.

I will also rock out to some Iron Maiden.


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> Gibor, that was your 777th post, and as forum luck has shown in the past.. you saved yourself some money with that luck.
> 
> This is my 666th post, and as such I will use the opportunity to bring doom and gloom and predict a big market haircut in the coming weeks.
> 
> I will also rock out to some Iron Maiden.


Enough with haircuts... I'm almost bold


----------



## andrewf

Given the low P/E ratio, I can't see AAPL dropping significantly because of this miss. It may, however, put a damper on the 60% higher target prices out there.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Perhaps a buying opportunity for some.


----------



## ddkay

Tim shoots down idea of buybacks being a philosophical white flag that Apple can't continue creating innovation

They are blaming lower than anticipated iPhone sales on people waiting for the iPhone 5. Despite (Tim being an inventory wiz) knowing exactly how many iPhones they sell each day, they didn't lower guidance... They should have lowered guidance going into earnings IMO. Now they are forecasting that next quarter will break all previous iPhone and iPad sales records. Last chance?


----------



## KaeJS

Homerhomer said:


> I rarely get surprised by anything market related but today I am as close to puzzled as I can be.


You can say that again.


----------



## ddkay

Pretty sure any of you could easily break into forex trading with this experience


----------



## sags

Argonaut said:


> Gibor, that was your 777th post, and as forum luck has shown in the past.. you saved yourself some money with that luck.
> 
> This is my 666th post, and as such I will use the opportunity to bring doom and gloom and predict a big market haircut in the coming weeks.
> 
> I will also rock out to some Iron Maiden.


That is some serious mojo happening............


----------



## Belguy

For the most part, I do not believe that stocks are currently moving primarily on earnings news. I think that they are moving up and down according to whatever news comes out of Europe on any given day. One day, there is a bit of optimistic news and the markets shoot up. The next day, the inevitable negative retort comes and the markets swoon. It's become like a broken record (remember those?)!

I see where some of the big insurers are considering boosting premiums to make up for their stock market losses and poor bond returns.

As I too have been experiencing the same, I am considering making up some of my losses by starting to charge a fee to those reading my messages on this forum.

What do you think would be a fair price to charge for my wisdom?


----------



## Homerhomer

Belguy said:


> , I am considering making up some of my losses by starting to charge a fee to those reading my messages on this forum.
> 
> :


Do you want my 2 cents ?;-)


----------



## HaroldCrump

Belguy said:


> I am considering making up some of my losses by starting to charge a fee to those reading my messages on this forum.
> 
> What do you think would be a fair price to charge for my wisdom?


New IPO announced on the TSX today : BGW (Bel Guy's Wisdom).
Anyone buying?


----------



## KaeJS

Will Short BGW as soon as my broker's have shares available to borrow.


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy, this is for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3llJlvCA2GI

The video may not work properly, but just listen to it LOL!

Hilarious!


----------



## Four Pillars

KaeJS said:


> Will Short BGW as soon as my broker's have shares available to borrow.


Haha - +1.


----------



## ddkay

Nassim Taleb gave a pessimistic view on Occupy Wall St, he thinks it will devolve into class warfare like in Egypt and it may be too late for government to change anything, they are already too idle

http://bloom.bg/mQTHTT#ooid=14NWx3Mjqutt8V5W_-0P6aJoMH9hzHIV


----------



## KaeJS

I still stand by my original thought that Occupy Wall/Bay Street is like a fly on the wall.

Europe > Occupy


----------



## ddkay

it's all connected in the house of mirrors aka the market


----------



## ddkay

Hah, this sums it up


----------



## Dmoney

Amazing


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> I still stand by my original thought that Occupy Wall/Bay Street is like a fly on the wall.


I saw some of the 'Occupy Toronto' occupiers/protestors being interviewed yesterday & can't say that I was impressed with anything they had to say; frankly, I was appalled & dismayed to put it politely.


----------



## Four Pillars

Toronto.gal said:


> I saw some of the 'Occupy Toronto' occupiers/protestors being interviewed yesterday & can't say that I was impressed with anything they had to say; frankly, I was appalled & dismayed to put it politely.


I saw a group of them walking and singing at Queen & Yonge yesterday. Looked like they were having fun.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

ddkay said:


> Hah, this sums it up


Brilliant!


----------



## humble_pie

_" Nassim Taleb gave a pessimistic view on Occupy Wall St, he thinks it will devolve into class warfare like in Egypt and it may be too late for government to change anything, they are already too idle "_

this has been obvious for several years. Kernel groups are present in every city. Occasionally they flash - london, bristol - & even more occasionally in canada - toronto, vancouver.

the problems are enormous, overwhelming. How to offer youth & young families a real future. Otherwise the road to despair & rioting lies open. I for one don't have any answers. The long-term solution is not increased police, that will lead to more hitler/mussolini.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Four Pillars said:


> Looked like they were having fun.


Indeed too much fun it appears, especially those in Calgary. 

"Occupy Calgary protesters entrenched in Olympic Plaza have put out a call for donations from the public, asking for medical supplies, toiletries and condoms."

Also heard that 'generators' have been donated to the protestors in Toronto, to keep warm I suppose; they said that the donations had came from unions.


----------



## buaya

*A lot of people are starting to notice and write about it*

A well written article with regards to the "occupy wall street movement"

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-wall-street-protesters-are-so-angry-about-2011-10?op=1


----------



## fatcat

you can make fun of the "wall streeters" all you want ...
but like the tea party, they are succeeding ...

we are talking about them and that means we will be talking about some of their ideas (however incoherent they are just like the tea party's incoherent ideas were in the beginning)

no matter how much they party or how unwashed they are .... everyone knows their message ... there is an unequal distribution of wealth in the world and the rich and powerful have too large a say in how the world is run

and whether you want to accept it or not, this is an explosive idea to begin to work it's way into the public dialogue


----------



## Homerhomer

Another financial institution reporting fantastic earnings, Morgan Stanley is reporting a profit of 2.15B including accounting gain of 3.4B and that creates operating profit of 0.02 per share.....how?



2.15-3.4=-1.25B


----------



## Toronto.gal

fatcat said:


> you can make fun of the "wall streeters" all you want..


I was not laughing in the least [if your comments were directed at me] & I'm not for a minute saying there are no urgent issues, I just don't like what I have been hearing from our protesters thus far. 

In any case, you are free to express your views and opinions just like the rest of us are.


----------



## Belguy

For all of you rich index investors out there, here is the reason why you are all pretty much millionaires by now from holding a geographically diversified portfolio of broad-based index funds. These are the ten year annualized returns for some long established iShares ETF's, as of September 30:

XIU: +7.65%
XIC: +7.61%

Pick your choice on the above because the long term returns are virtually identical!

XSP: -1.52%

XIN: -1.09%

A net annual loss over ten YEARS for having the 'smarts' to invest in a geographically diversified portfolio!!

Gee, I wonder what the next ten YEARS will bring!!!

Maybe we should start to seriously consider going the laddered GIC route with no chance of any losses and, in a rising interest rate environment, the real possibility of beating another ten YEARS of negative returns on some broadly based ETF's!!

What say you???


----------



## Four Pillars

@Belguy

Your post makes very little sense. 

If you had a diversified portfolio of XIU, XSP, XIN and XSB (25% each), clearly there would have been a net gain. Why would you just look at the two losers and ignore the winners?

10 years is also not a long time.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> Maybe* i *should start to seriously consider going the laddered GIC route with no chance of any losses and, in a rising interest rate environment, the real possibility of beating another ten YEARS of negative returns on some broadly based ETF's!!


I just corrected your text


----------



## ddkay

FRB Beige Book release just crashed the market


----------



## ddkay

Oh nevermind, "euro zone talks have stalled"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/19/eurozone-idUSL5E7LJ3DK20111019


----------



## humble_pie

more rioting in athens today, the 1st day of a 2-day voting period for or against new austerity legislation.

how many years before we see this in canada. Real rioting, nothing like the handful of black bloc in toronto at the G20 or the kids camping out right now in public squares until it snows or until they feel like going home for a bath & clean clothes, whichever first occurs.

greeks i have seen demonstrating in videos aren't kids. They're ordinary, middle-class, well-dressed. Many look like they've never been on a demonstration in their lives. Now they're driven to it.


----------



## Homerhomer

humble_pie said:


> how many years before we see this in canada.


1) Hopefully never - hoping Canada will be in better economic shape than Greece is right now.

2) Probably never - as a society we seem to have different make up, each one minding their own business and not much into protests, we are a bit sheepish.


----------



## ddkay

Bought HVU.TO we might be testing the lower end of the range by this weekend


----------



## fatcat

> I was not laughing in the least [if your comments were directed at me] & I'm not for a minute saying there are no urgent issues, I just don't like what I have been hearing from our protesters thus far.
> 
> In any case, you are free to express your views and opinions just like the rest of us are.


 gal, on the contrary, i always enjoy your posts ... i was really speaking to what i hear in the media and on fox news and from all corners of the "establishment"

nassim taleb is back speaking and he is talking about the spectre of class warfare ... he is absolutely correct

what happened in 2008 and what is happening in europe is as pure an example of an oligarchy as you will find ..

and the wall streeters are just the first salvo especially if we see further deteriorating conditions ... the fact that they are disorganized means nothing

the dismissiveness with which they are roundly greeted is a sign of the power of their message


----------



## humble_pie

homer i left out the intervening part of the scenario, so yes, riots in canada do sound insanely improbable on this 19th day of october in the year of our lord two thousand and eleven. Even the weather here in eastern canada today was mild with sunny breaks.

but to fill in the scenario, suppose banks fail & rioting becomes widespread across southern europe. The entire mediterranean would be on fire. Rioting spreads north & across the ocean to the US, as more banks in the chains topple.

US riots in the previous century always involved heavy use of handguns. Canada could not remain peaceful, docile, sheepish & prosperous for even a year, imho, if big US cities were to be smoking & flaming just south of the border.

our banks, our trade are inextricably linked.

in an ugly new world, canada would not remain isolated. That's what i meant.


----------



## Belguy

4.7 Trillion U.S. dollars in wealth has been wiped out due to stock market losses by Americans since 2007. Markets are currently down approximately 20 per cent from their all-time highs. Americans have also suffered losses of 7.3 Trillion dollars in real estate investments. Thus, 12 TRILLION dollars worth of wealth has been erased due to combined stock market and real estate losses.

Source: NBC Nightly News 

Is it any wonder that confidence is at an all-time low?

The Great Recession indeed!!!


----------



## ddkay

But 66% of S&P500 have beat expectations this season (Lang and O'Leary tonight)


----------



## Belguy

S&P 500 YTD return: Negative 2.22%

Source: Standard and Poor website


----------



## ddkay

A note from El-Erian

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/elerian10/English



> Bill Gross, came up with to describe the economic risks facing the American economy. For the Dreamliner [aircraft] to take off, ascend, and maintain a steady altitude, it must do more than move forward. It has to move forward fast enough to exceed critical physical thresholds, which are significantly higher than those for most of Boeing’s other (smaller) planes.
> 
> Failure would mean succumbing to a mid-air stall, with tepid forward motion giving way to a sudden loss of altitude. Unless we are convinced of the Dreamliner’s ability to avoid stall speed, it makes no sense to talk about all the ways in which it will enhance the travel experience for millions of people around the world.
> 
> America’s economy today risks stall speed. Specifically, the question is not whether it can grow, but whether it can grow fast enough to propel a large economy that, according to the US Federal Reserve, faces “balance-sheet deleveraging, credit constraints, and household and business uncertainty about the economic outlook.” And, remember, it is just over a year since certain US officials were proclaiming the economy’s “summer of recovery” – a view underpinned by the erroneous belief that America was reaching “escape velocity.”
> 
> Stall speed is a terrifying risk for an economy like that of the US, which desperately needs to grow robustly. Without rapid growth, there is no way to reverse persistently high and increasingly structural (and therefore protracted) unemployment; safely de-leverage over-indebted balance sheets; and prevent already-disturbing income and wealth inequalities from growing worse.


----------



## donald

I read steve wynns take on the usa economy,i dont know how to attach it but if anybody is intrested google wynns stock on msn money.....He hits the nail on the head!The government has got big business in a headlock!USA needs new leadership!Obama has got to yield to big business!


----------



## Homerhomer

humble_pie said:


> homer i left out the intervening part of the scenario, so yes, riots in canada do sound insanely improbable on this 19th day of october in the year of our lord two thousand and eleven. Even the weather here in eastern canada today was mild with sunny breaks.
> 
> but to fill in the scenario, suppose banks fail & rioting becomes widespread across southern europe. The entire mediterranean would be on fire. Rioting spreads north & across the ocean to the US, as more banks in the chains topple.
> 
> US riots in the previous century always involved heavy use of handguns. Canada could not remain peaceful, docile, sheepish & prosperous for even a year, imho, if big US cities were to be smoking & flaming just south of the border.
> 
> our banks, our trade are inextricably linked.
> 
> in an ugly new world, canada would not remain isolated. That's what i meant.


We are nice because we can afford it, few days without the conviniences we are used to will turn us into animals, Canadians not excluded.

Thankfully not likely scenario for the near future in our country ;-)


----------



## sags

I'm not a big fan of Jim Cramer, but caught a segment of today's show.

He did a good job of explaining why companies report they "beat" expectations in their results, but the stock goes down.......or the reverse where companies don't meet "expectations" and the stock goes up.

As he said, investors have to do their homework and get beyond the headlines, which are most often not accurate.

But, as he started to explain all the different key points of a report to look for, each different according to the business sector they are involved in, it becomes obvious it is way above the knowledge and ability of most individual investors.

Perhaps better to avoid pre-earnings hype and wait a day or two after their release to make an assessment. By then, the stock trend would be evident.


----------



## ddkay

Credit Markets Don't Back Up Equity Rally



> The Libor OIS spread and TED spreads continue to suggest global unease in interbank lending markets. At 32 bps, the Libor OIS spread is telling investors that banks are increasingly concerned with counterparty risk. As a result, the amount European banks are parking overnight at the ECB has continued to increase.
> 
> European banks parked nearly 165 billion euros at the ECB overnight Monday, up from 136.2 billion euros the prior day. Investors should be concerned. (Historically, banks park less than 100 billion at the ECB.) A willingness to increase overnight deposits at the ECB, which pays less than banks could capture from interbank markets, signals risk aversion ahead of this coming weekend's European Summit.
> 
> The Euribor OIS spread is similarly widening. The measure moved to its highest in two weeks today. Banks continue to demand more reward for the risk of lending to one another. And they're increasingly willing to accept little reward for safety.
> 
> If this trend doesn't reverse, it could signal an end to the equity market rally. Credit markets are often referred to as the smart money, and their unwillingness to confirm the stock market rally suggests much of this recent powerful move could be erased quickly, particularly if dwindling access to liquidity forces another Dexia SA event.
> 
> Clearly, European banks are under high scrutiny. The pressure from regulators and markets to improve their balance sheets suggest they will continue to view any amount of risk as too much risk.
> 
> As a result, investors need to watch Eastern European debt markets too. Hungary has had to limit the size of bond offerings in each of its past two attempts. EU banks, which have provided much-needed financing to emerging Eastern European markets like Hungary, are increasingly unwilling to swell their books with more risky sovereign debt. That could pose problems next year as debt is rolled over.
> 
> But the funding risk isn't limited to the former Eastern Bloc countries. Italy's 10-year bond yields have moved to 5.87%. Yields are closing in on the 6% level, which prompted the ECB to resurrect its sovereign bond buy program. Ideally, the ECB would like Italy's yields to be closer than 5% than 6%. A move back above 6% would add pressure on France, which has already seen its own 10-year yields climb back above 3% to 3.14%. France is heavily exposed to Italian debt, suggesting banks such as BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole could face additional pressure if Italian debt markets worsen.
> 
> As investors, it's increasingly difficult to discern whether bulls or bears will win this battle. Uncertainty is often perilous to portfolios. Given rising risk in the European Union, raising cash until credit markets confirm the rally makes sense.
> 
> Disclosure: I am long UUP


----------



## sags

donald said:


> I read steve wynns take on the usa economy,i dont know how to attach it but if anybody is intrested google wynns stock on msn money.....He hits the nail on the head!The government has got big business in a headlock!USA needs new leadership!Obama has got to yield to big business!


Wynn has it all wrong.

Businesses aren't investing because there is no demand for what they sell, not because they are afraid of regulations. Improved technology saves companies money, that is why they spend to obtain it, but it is also a big job killer.

Here is a timely press article. Maple Leaf foods is spending 560 million for new technology that will eliminate 1500 jobs.

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/19/maple-leaf-to-cut-1500-jobs-in-country-wide-overhaul/

Wynn praises Asians for their "work ethic", which I assume means they are greatful for a job that pays 5 dollars a day, has no benefits, and will leave them out on the street should they become injured or old.

Maybe Wynn should just close his casinos in America and move to Asia.

His company produces nothing of value to the world.


----------



## sags

I believe Bill Gross, Fareed Zakaria and others have said there is need for a huge stimulus package to promote employment, provide retraining, provide small business loans and provide basic income for those without jobs,all of which in turn raises confidence levels and raises the demand for goods, and may nudge the economy forward at a faster pace than "stall speed".

Since nobody has been saving and don't have the money to provide this stimulus, it isn't clear that acquiring more debt to solve old debt problems is going to be the answer.

But, at this point it may be the only plan left.

Unfortunately, the Republicans don't see it that way.


----------



## Dmoney

sags said:


> His company produces nothing of value to the world.


You could argue a ton of companies produce nothign of value. 
You could argue his companies provide entertainment which has some value.

Was thinking the other day of how many companies are simply middlemen in our economy, and how useless so many products and services are. Yet they thrive. I suppose value is relative in many ways.


----------



## ddkay

Out HVU +2%, bulls are being hysterical again with Gaddafi news, the Philly Fed jumping from -17.5 to 8.7 and other fake headlines

Anybody know the exact time Greece is holding its final austerity vote?


----------



## kcowan

Commentator from Barrons on LOE said that P/E compression is one of the symptoms of the current market expectations. Translation: higher earnings are needed to sustain the existing stock prices.


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> Anybody know the exact time Greece is holding its final austerity vote?


We are all relaying on you to provide us up to the minute info


----------



## ddkay

Greece national strike day:










I can't find any info on the time. Almost every article seems to reference the vote as "later this evening" and any events happening "ahead of the vote"... hrm.


----------



## ddkay

So hard to go short again.. but all indicators are pointing down and I instinctively feel like something is going to blow up today, if it does SP500 could be 1170 or lower by EOD. I think a failed Greece vote could be the catalyst. Just going to watch from the sidelines until we're under 1190.


----------



## KaeJS

^ Either way works for me.

If the vote comes out optimistic - What I own goes up.

If it doesn't - everything I own falls to the floor, and I get to buy more free BMO at cheap cheap cheap.


----------



## ddkay

Greek Ruling Party Lawmaker Plans to Vote Against Article 37 - BBG
France Germany Need Extra Euro Zone Summit Next Week To Agree on EFSFs, In Second Greek Financing Package - BBG

Article 37: "Suspends the power of unions to impose wages and work rules through collective labor agreements."


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> ^ Either way works for me.
> 
> If the vote comes out optimistic - What I own goes up.
> 
> If it doesn't - everything I own falls to the floor, and I get to buy more free BMO at cheap cheap cheap.


Glass is always half full, works for me ;-)


----------



## ddkay

Germany's Seibert (Merkel's Spokesperson) To Make Statement At 7:30 P.M. Berlin Time (1:30 P.M. EST) - BBG

“A well-run bank needs no capital. No amount of capital will rescue a badly run bank.” - Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street. 1873. Ancient wisdom.


----------



## ddkay

Germany's Seibert Says More Work Is Needed on Euro Package
Germany's Seibert Says EU Aims To Reach Accord In Two Stages
Germany's Seibert Says EU Aims For Euro Agreement "Next Week" (By Wednesday At The Latest)
Seibert Says "Appropriate" German Lawmaker Participation Needed
Seibert Says Merkel To Inform Parliament At "Appropriate Time"

Translation: Give us one more week and we'll have a plan... promise!


----------



## Belguy

I'm getting tired of the wait!! Is this problem solvable or not? I don't believe that God himself could resolve this mess!!!

I hate to think that I will have to stay under this bed for still another week!!


----------



## ddkay

- Greek PM expels lawmaker from party for breaking ranks on key austerity vote -party source
- Papandreou has votes to win second ballot on austerity bill


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> I hate to think that I will have to stay under this bed for still another week!!


Hey stay under the bed if it makes you fell better. Nothing they do will address the fundamental problem. So you are waiting for some form of wallpaper to make people feel better. How sad is that?


----------



## sags

I watched some Bloomberg Europe last night.

They had an interview with the CEO of a Greek bank.

He said depositors at his bank owned small amounts of 3,000 to 10,000 Euros, and were withdrawing at a rapid pace, taking the money home and putting it under the mattress or burying it in the backyard.

The bank was trying to keep up with withdrawals.

With the austerity measures passed, people may be forced to withdraw their savings just to live. Declining deposits will be another problem for the banks.

The financial "wizards" have created such a screwed up mess, that solving one problem leads to another being created.

I just hope we don't find out Canadian banks have much more exposure to Europe than they have admitted, but Harper, Flaherty and Carney running around doesn't give off that "all is well" feeling.


----------



## KaeJS

^ Which brings about the question:

Why were the Canadian banks up today?


----------



## sags

Hopefully because they are bastions of strength in a world of doubt.


----------



## Belguy

The wealth and standard of living of most Americans is rapidly diminishing. America is not the country that it was back before 2008!!

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/1019/A-long-steep-drop-for-Americans-standard-of-living


----------



## ddkay

LOL @ open. This market is higher than a kite from the smoke at Zuccotti Park and could take all weekend to come down. Looks like put buyers got screwed again. Next week will be more fun, LIBOR and TED still rising...


----------



## Belguy

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed yesterday at 11,830.33.

The YTD % change is down 12.0%.

Can it make that up in the remaining ten weeks of the year??


----------



## HaroldCrump

Belguy said:


> Can it make that up in the remaining ten weeks of the year??


Yes


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> S&P/TSX Composite Index closed yesterday at 11,830.33.
> 
> The YTD % change is down 12.0%.
> 
> Can it make that up in the remaining ten weeks of the year??


So I kinda "beating the index", as i'm down a little beat less....

Too bad I put too much money into index ETF like XIU, XIC, TD index e-fund... should've buy more solid blue chips like BCE, RCI, ABT, PM etc


----------



## ddkay

The TSX will rally right back up to 14329 and then everyone will be surprised why we're down 7000+ when Greece defaults and Euro banks liquidate their books


----------



## zylon

*Belguy*

only 33 points per day ... piece of cake!

TSX


----------



## Toronto.gal

ddkay said:


> everyone will be surprised why we're down 7000+ when Greece defaults and Euro banks liquidate their books


I'm sure you keep repeating the same song to spook Belguy.


----------



## ddkay

Then all long term investors will come out screaming at the top of their lungs and blame high frequency trading, market manipulation, politicians, why didn't the experts see this coming, financial advisors get fired. Doesn't it happen every time?


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> The TSX will rally right back up to 14329 and then everyone will be surprised why we're down 7000+ when Greece defaults and Euro banks liquidate their books


I disagree, I am pretty sure the TSX will rally to 14328, I am just not sure if it's March 18 or 19, 2012.


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> I'm sure you keep repeating the same song to spook Belguy.


Spooking Belguy!!!! Mission impossible


----------



## Homerhomer

gibor said:


> So I kinda "beating the index", as i'm down a little beat less....
> 
> Too bad I put too much money into index ETF like XIU, XIC, TD index e-fund... should've buy more solid blue chips like BCE, RCI, ABT, PM etc


We all evolve as we learn and move forward. If you are beating the index you are probably doing better than most MM managers, you should be getting paid $$$,$$$.$$


----------



## kcowan

ddkay said:


> The TSX will rally right back up to 14329 and then everyone will be surprised why we're down 7000+ when Greece defaults and Euro banks liquidate their books


This sums up my feelings on the Europe situation:









From Stratfor


----------



## zylon

*guarantee*



Homerhomer said:


> ... I am pretty sure the TSX will rally to 14328, I am just not sure if it's March 18 or 19, 2012.


*For Sure* not March 18th


----------



## Lephturn

The end result is Greece defaults or gets "restructured" (default with another name). The only issue is, can they delay it long enough to have taken big enough write downs that it's already accounted for?

I think we need another 9 months for that to happen, but I'm just guessing.


----------



## Rommel

sags said:


> Wynn has it all wrong.
> 
> Businesses aren't investing because there is no demand for what they sell, not because they are afraid of regulations. Improved technology saves companies money, that is why they spend to obtain it, but it is also a big job killer.
> 
> Here is a timely press article. Maple Leaf foods is spending 560 million for new technology that will eliminate 1500 jobs.
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/19/maple-leaf-to-cut-1500-jobs-in-country-wide-overhaul/
> 
> Wynn praises Asians for their "work ethic", which I assume means they are greatful for a job that pays 5 dollars a day, has no benefits, and will leave them out on the street should they become injured or old.
> 
> Maybe Wynn should just close his casinos in America and move to Asia.
> 
> His company produces nothing of value to the world.


I strongly disagree that Wynn has it wrong. Steve Wynn is a successful businessman, has a net-worth over $2.3 Billion USD and has a strong track record of creating thousands of jobs for America and other countries.

Over-regulation is a strong concern in the US. A recent poll shows a vast majority believe consumers and small businesses are over-regulated. Steve Wynn is very correct in echoing this sentiment.

Increased regulations make it harder to invest. Additional regulations means costs up front increase.

His company may not produce entities of value for you however they do create value for many others. Steve Wynn was praising a cultural attitude and ethic, not a specific country's labor standards. Look at Japan. The average Japanese citizen is very disciplined and has a strong work ethic. They produce a high GDP per worker. They have great benefits in contrast to your statements.

You know when you have very little or you work in a country such as China or the Philippines, a strong work ethic is necessary for survival. It is often the case when they immigrate to Canada or the US that they maintain a strong work ethic.

On the issue of demand for a product, that is created by creating a market for the product. That also means favorable economic conditions to start investing to begin with. Why do you think that many US companies move headquarters to certain areas in the US or overseas? Why do you think that international companies start up US headquarters in places like Houston Texas or Canadian headquarters in Calgary Alberta? It is because they have low regulation and are very investment friendly places.

China is one of the most heavily regulated countries in the world however Hong Kong and Macau have relatively low regulations. In fact, Hong Kong is consistently rated as one of the most economically free places in the world, far ahead of the US. It is because China knows not to mess around with the GDP ability of Hong Kong by increasing regulations inline with many other provinces.

Where would you rather start a business, Calgary or Quebec City?


----------



## gibor365

I heard several analysts who are berish on the market in general, forecasting that markets will go up for next 2-3 months to low high (S&P to about 1300) and than will go down and down...


----------



## sags

Kcowan........now that chart is spooky.

I heard some great lines today about the situation.

To paraphrase..............

_Greece is bankrupt. If they had a fairy come down and pay off all their debt, at the end of the month they would be broke again_

_This stock market rally is a stay of execution rally._

_France is a bankrupt country, who want to borrow from other bankrupt countries, to bail out themselves and other bankrupt countries, and they want to keep their AAA credit rating while doing it._

Flaherty was on the news as well. He looked really peed off. He said the Europeans could have solved the crisis early, but dilly dallied and caused a serious financial situation to become a critical financial situation that threatened the world financial system. He said he has been to meetings after meetings after meetings all over the world, had phone call after phone call all over the world, and the result is they may meet again in the future to discuss it some more. 

He looked like he hasn't been sleeping all that well.


----------



## ddkay

Probably means Canadian banks are toast


----------



## ddkay

So, panic buying into Wednesday with a few selloffs in between, then "the plan" comes out (or it doesn't) and disappoints everyone. My short term SPX targets are 1250, then 1000.


----------



## gibor365

I heard several analysts who are berish on the market in general, forecasting that markets will go up for next 2-3 months to low high (S&P to about 1300) and than will go down and down...


----------



## Belguy

Maybe I am just being stupid to wait but, if the markets return to their spring highs, I am planning to sell because I have just heard so many predictions of an end of year rally followed by a long bear market starting in the New Year.

If I were younger, I would just keep holding but, what with approaching 70, it changes the picture.

I believe that the mess in Europe is unsolvable and is going to end badly but that is just my personal opinion after doing much reading on the subject.

If we can get through the next couple of weeks, we may see a short term rally in the markets which I will look upon as a selling opportunity.

One word of caution, if I do sell, then you should buy or hold because my history of trying to time the markets is not good.

Also, does anyone have any thoughts on this?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...its/article2209878/singlepage/#articlecontent


----------



## fatcat

> Maybe I am just being stupid to wait but, if the markets return to their spring highs, I am planning to sell because I have just heard so many predictions of an end of year rally followed by a long bear market starting in the New Year.
> 
> If I were younger, I would just keep holding but, what with approaching 70, it changes the picture.
> 
> I believe that the mess in Europe is unsolvable and is going to end badly but that is just my personal opinion after doing much reading on the subject.
> 
> If we can get through the next couple of weeks, we may see a short term rally in the markets which I will look upon as a selling opportunity.
> 
> One word of caution, if I do sell, then you should buy or hold because my history of trying to time the markets is not good.
> 
> Also, does anyone have any thoughts on this?
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...articlecontent


yes, my first thought is that it is damn close to the perennial portfolio of harry brownes which is well worth a look - the formall pp is structured as follows: 25% gold 25% cash 25% bonds 25% stocks and there are many variations but it supposed to cover inflation (gold) deflation (bonds) expansion (stocks) recession (cash) ... the portfolio you reference looks very close

also look at the track record of: PRPFX, which has peerformed very, very well in just about any condition: http://www.permanentportfoliofunds.com/pdfs/perm/PRPFX.pdf

belguy, why not just begin shifting toward building a high-quality corporate and government bond ladder ? you have enough to do it and if you keep like 30% in stocks and gold you will be positioned for any inflation and perhaps in a much more relaxed place i bet


----------



## ddkay

The 'official' required bondholder writedown media have started relaying, 50-60%


> The results show that debt can be brought to just
> above 120 percent of GDP by end-2020 if 50 percent discounts are applied. Given
> still-delayed market access, large scale additional official financing requirements
> would remain, estimated at some €114 billion (under the market access assumptions
> used). To get the debt down further would require a larger private sector contribution
> (for instance, to reduce debt below 110 percent of GDP by 2020 would require a face
> value reduction of at least 60 percent and/or more concessional official sector
> financing terms). Additional official financing requirements could be reduced to an
> estimated €109 billion in this instance. Of course, it must be noted that the estimated
> costs to the official sector exclude any contagion-related costs.


----------



## ddkay

Rumours going around that EU will give EFSF a 200B boost via Gaddafi's assets


----------



## Belguy

Heh, what a fantastic idea! Use some of Gaddafi's ill-begotten gains to buy some calm in the world's equity markets. At least some good could come out of his pathetic life!!

However, on second thought, I guess that money really belongs to the Libyan people who will need it to rebuild their nation.


----------



## Montyswe

fatcat said:


> a high-quality corporate and government bond ladder?


fatcat, any suggestions for a portfolio?

Thank you


----------



## andrewf

ddkay said:


> Rumours going around that EU will give EFSF a 200B boost via Gaddafi's assets


Uhhhh, shouldn't those belong to Libyans?


----------



## ddkay

It does belong to Libyans, Europe stealing it was a joke. Hopefully.


----------



## ddkay

I was going to share this article by pasting it inline but the character count exceeds the forums limit. Great weekend reading on the commodity market: Commodity traders: The trillion dollar club

Snip


> Many amass speculative positions worth billions in raw goods, or hoard commodities in warehouses and super-tankers during periods of tight supply.
> 
> U.S. and European regulators are cracking down on big banks and hedge funds that speculate in raw goods, but trading firms remain largely untouched.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> Rumours going around that EU will give EFSF a 200B boost via Gaddafi's assets


url please


----------



## ddkay

er... http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/rumor ?


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> er... http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/rumor ?


because everything written on the internet is TRUE. Its not like you were in a super secret meeting with high level politician.


----------



## Belguy

Gotta love that ING ad where the guy complains that every stock that he buys ends up losing him money.

The response: "Stop buying stocks!"


----------



## ddkay

Most rumours are unconfirmed. Truth doesn't matter in this market, when a headline breaks, traders and HFT react. Duno if you're suggesting I started this new rumour, I did not.


----------



## ddkay

Who reads the papers? - Yes, Prime Minister - BBC comedy


----------



## andrewf

Belguy said:


> Maybe I am just being stupid to wait but, if the markets return to their spring highs, I am planning to sell because I have just heard so many predictions of an end of year rally followed by a long bear market starting in the New Year.
> 
> If I were younger, I would just keep holding but, what with approaching 70, it changes the picture.
> 
> I believe that the mess in Europe is unsolvable and is going to end badly but that is just my personal opinion after doing much reading on the subject.
> 
> If we can get through the next couple of weeks, we may see a short term rally in the markets which I will look upon as a selling opportunity.
> 
> One word of caution, if I do sell, then you should buy or hold because my history of trying to time the markets is not good.
> 
> Also, does anyone have any thoughts on this?
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...its/article2209878/singlepage/#articlecontent


Belguy, I think you should just gradually ratchet back your equity exposure. Maybe every month move 1% of your portfolio allocation out of equities and into fixed income until you get to a level you are comfortable with.


----------



## gibor365

Belguy, if you sell, what do you plan to do with money? GIC? HISA? solid blue-chip dividend stocks?


----------



## Abha

I think Belguy should withdraw 75% of his equity position and move it into much more conservative investments.

Even with 25% equity exposure, I'm sure he'll be feeling the heat from the volatility.


----------



## Belguy

Benjamin Walden of ScotiaMcLeod, quoted in the Toronto Star says that all investors "should consider the sleep factor." He uses the example of someone with $200,000 in cash. "If it grows to $300,000, it won't change his life. However, if it shrinks to $100,000, he's likely to be upset and angry."

Buy, hold, and panic!!!


----------



## Homerhomer

Another view on why this rally has no legs (I agree with that).

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...s-a-market-thats-lost-its-way/article2209791/


----------



## ddkay

ECB using leverage to solve the debt crisis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx_RqOvliIs


----------



## gibor365

SO what are your forecasts for next week? Technically S&P and Dow in uptrand, NASDAQ - sidelines, Russel - in downtrend, but who cares about tecnicals if marker driven by rumors


----------



## gibor365

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...bets-jump-most-in-two-months-commodities.html

Hedge Funds Bullish Raw-Material Bets Jump Most in Two Months: Commodities
_Hedge funds increased bullish bets on commodities by the most since August on mounting optimism the global economy will avoid another recession, boosting prospects for raw-materials demand.

Money managers raised combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 12 percent to 737,647 contracts in the week ended Oct. 18, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Wagers increased most in energy and agriculture, led by heating oil, gasoline, coffee and soybeans.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities climbed 6.7 percent in October, on track for the biggest monthly advance this year, as European leaders moved closer to resolving the region’s debt crisis. Reports last week showed U.S. housing starts jumped to the highest since April 2010 and manufacturing unexpectedly accelerated, increasing investor confidence that the world’s largest economy isn’t tipping back into recession. _


----------



## doctrine

Short sellers drove down the market, now they're paying for it as it comes back. It's all just noise, as earnings are still good.


----------



## gibor365

doctrine said:


> Short sellers drove down the market, now they're paying for it as it comes back. It's all just noise, as earnings are still good.


For me to go short on markets, it's like to bet that you favorite team will lose


----------



## larry81

gibor said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...bets-jump-most-in-two-months-commodities.html
> 
> hedge funds bullish raw-material bets jump most in two months: Commodities [/i]


go tse:su go !!!


----------



## larry81

imho, this week will determine if we finish the year in negative or positive territory.

I personally expect a great week, as soon as EURO announce whatever plan they have to fix their ****, markets will rise.


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> imho, this week will determine if we finish the year in negative or positive territory.


I usually like your posts, larry, but this one is just odd.

we have a long time to go until 2012, regardless how this week goes.


----------



## dogcom

I agree with kaejs because we could easily have a poor week here as October comes to an end and then have a nice rally to end the year. We could also rally again into May but at some point Greece and the other countries will come apart and it will get very ugly.


----------



## ddkay

On October 6th I said in order to sustain an end of year rally, we would have to crash upwards between then and mid-November

So if this is true, lightning has struck and created a Frakenstein rally to the moon. To da mooooooooooon!!! It will also mark the strongest and sharpest rally since the March 2009 bottom 

My old chart...









The crosshair was designating support at 1226 by November 11

I also said if this is correct, a $100K investment in Suncor calls can make you a near instant millionaire in a matter of weeks


----------



## avrex

@ddkay. Keep the charts coming. I like em.


Anyone else doing any trading this week? I'm thinking of a few buys/sells.
Or is it too dangerous and we should sit on the sidelines and wait to see what happens in Europe?


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> My old chart...


Nice picture, star and thunder.

Will we see baby Jesus and Zeus in the near future?


----------



## KaeJS

avrex said:


> Anyone else doing any trading this week?


Maybe some selling for me. No buying.


----------



## KaeJS

Futures -35 right now.

Will be bright green at 9am....


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> I usually like your posts, larry, but this one is just odd.
> 
> we have a long time to go until 2012, regardless how this week goes.


just saying that euro fear have been such a serious drag on the equities markets this year that a positive statement about EFSF going forward will certainly be a big plus.

But, if the euro politicians don't announce consensus this week, watch it go down the drain.

But as you said, noboby can predict whats going to happen in the 50+ trading day's left until 2012 !


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Futures -35 right now.
> 
> Will be bright green at 9am....


and now already +43, WTI is up 0.9%, gold up +0.6 ,
Korean index up 3.5%


----------



## KaeJS

up 51 now.

Told'ya.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> up 51 now.
> 
> Told'ya.


start trading futures


----------



## KaeJS

Someday, possibly. 

Problem with futures is that you win big, or you lose big. Gotta stay on top of the market at all times and the risk is huge.


----------



## larry81

I am telling you folks, this week should be very interesting


----------



## ddkay

SPX cash 1250 is an important resistance level.. we just tagged it, will we break it?

Meanwhile, in the real world things are hopeless ->



> Exclusive: EU weighs insurance, SPV options to boost euro fund
> BERLIN | Mon Oct 24, 2011 10:08am EDT
> 
> (Reuters) - The European Union is now discussing two options for giving the euro zone rescue fund more firepower -- an insurance model and a special investment vehicle (SPIV), a paper obtained by Reuters on Monday showed.
> 
> The two options could be twinned and would not require a change to the current framework of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the paper said.
> 
> The euro zone wants to boost the EFSF's firepower without putting more money into it, while France had dropped its idea of turning the fund into a bank to tap European Central Bank funds. European leaders will decide on which approach to take at the second leg of a EU summit on Wednesday.
> 
> (Reporting by Matthias Sobolewski, writing by Annika Breidthardt)


----------



## Jungle

Yes... S&P 500 is now out performing TSX. Over 60% of companies on S&P beat Q3 expectations.


----------



## ddkay

"In only 11 trading days since Occupy Wall St rally started, S&P is up an amazing 8.75%, best 11 day stretch in years if ever"

Maybe Brookfield shouldn't be telling them to get off their lawn


----------



## donald

Slowdown?check out cats earnings!up 44%!Ive watched this stock tread from 114-low 70s its broke 90 now!The market seems to be saying lets run...........Wynns breaking out today too!Bull signs,shorts are scared to play?


----------



## ddkay

Copper bounced back where it was on Oct 17th.. but I still see a downtrend and great weakness in copper and Shanghai


----------



## Abha

copper is a great tell on market strength and direction.


----------



## zylon

*copper*

classic "W" formation

If copper breaks through the 50 ema with 80k volume, it's up and away.

It would also represent an 18% move off the recent bottom.

chart


----------



## ddkay

October 31 is the US deadline for hedge fund year end redemption requests


----------



## KaeJS

Hm.

The other side of the world doesn't look impressed.

Down day tomorrow?

If so, I am selling MT and G.TO


----------



## KaeJS

Can anyone explain to me why the Telecomms didn't do well today?


----------



## Belguy

Not me!!

Re copper:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-copper-points-to-global-pain/article2210815/


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Hm.
> 
> The other side of the world doesn't look impressed.
> 
> Down day tomorrow?
> 
> If so, I am selling MT and G.TO


Selling MT ????????? What is your cost ?


----------



## KaeJS

I got MT at $17.85


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> I got MT at $17.85


If you dont need the cash, I might be a very good idea to simply hold on this.


----------



## ddkay

Copper is still rallying in ETH, making new highs.. now 3.53

/ES on a ledge and crude oil showing megaphone patterns

$100/bbl oil again, just in time for Christmas?

The market is pricing in a miracle. Aren't you glad to know I'm a buyer of miracles too, fib 60 is at 1258, pull this over 1275 and I'm going 3x levered net long again.

Here's what stock indices that are opened look like around the world atm



Code:


Tokyo        Nikkei Stock    8820.29    -23.69    -0.27  -13.77  Intraday
             Nikkei 300       151.85     -0.71    -0.47  -16.73  Intraday
Hong Kong    Hang Seng      18832.40     60.58     0.32  -18.25  Intraday
Sydney       S&P/ASX 200     4230.40    -24.60    -0.58  -10.85  Intraday
             All Ord         4290.10    -23.50    -0.54  -11.49  Intraday
DJ Pacific   Pan-Asia         123.76      0.11     0.09  -13.17  Intraday
Jakarta      JSX Comp        3708.20      1.42     0.04   +0.13  Intraday
Kuala L      Composite       1448.85     -1.17    -0.08   -4.61  Intraday
Manila       PSE             4239.85     38.77     0.92   +0.92  Intraday
Seoul        Kospi           1888.90     -9.42    -0.50   -7.90  Intraday
China        DJ CBN 600     21625.73    128.30     0.60  -19.01  Intraday
Shanghai     Composite       2361.94     -8.39    -0.35  -15.89  Intraday
             A Share         2473.35     -9.45    -0.38  -15.88  Intraday
             B Share          240.02      0.86     0.36  -21.14  Intraday
Shenzhen     A Share         1022.88     -0.96    -0.09  -24.29  Intraday
             B Share          565.95      3.45     0.61  -31.38  Intraday
Singapore    Straits T       2761.48      0.53     0.02  -13.43  Intraday
Taipei       Weighted        7480.22      9.92     0.13  -16.63  Intraday
Wellington   NZSX-50         3289.82      0.06     0.00   -0.58  Intraday


----------



## Argonaut

ddkay has had a bear capitulation moment. I'll hold my puts.


----------



## ddkay

My best guess is SPX tags 1258 at some point tomorrow and fades/crashes, or we break out to the upside again.. at which point, it's pretty much game over for bears.

What could do that? I duno, maybe the miracle plan, is to have the IMF backstop EZ with other countries money.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111024-717082.html


----------



## Argonaut

S&P 500 closed at exact same price today as on August 3rd, shortly before the US debt downgrade. Hard to see upside, but I see a lot of downside both technically and fundamentally. Market is rising on weak volume hope.

Being long I would want to be in only the best of companies. Caterpillar has always been one of my favourites and was the darling of the market today.


----------



## ddkay

If this IMF thing is true, the US will end up subsidising the lions share of the EU bailout... US doesn't really have a budget for that. So inflationistas can party again, buy oil and buy gold.


----------



## Argonaut

I haven't revisited gold much since I cashed in my options on September 2nd. Talk about timing. Volatility has subsided as gold is content to hang out in the $1600s. Call premiums are down a lot, so it might be worth a look. As is, I'm content to stick to the 25% allocation in my permanent hold portfolio.


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> If you dont need the cash, I might be a very good idea to simply hold on this.


Would like to, but this stock is volatile enough that you can buy and sell.

Especially due to the nature of their business and the whole "global economy"


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> I haven't revisited gold much since I cashed in my options on September 2nd. Talk about timing. Volatility has subsided as gold is content to hang out in the $1600s. Call premiums are down a lot, so it might be worth a look. As is, I'm content to stick to the 25% allocation in my permanent hold portfolio.


I bought small portion HBU (gold bull x2) about 2 weeks ago, and it's steady +/- 1-2% on the day.... better would be investing in oil


----------



## ddkay

Crude at $93.81... should have bought those Suncor calls in early October and made myself a millionaire

Germany is insisting on a 60% bondholder writedown. Still don't know how that's bullish? but the market only wants to go in one direction it seems, no use fighting. SPX 1300 by Wednesday...


----------



## ddkay

There's no way we can go down with massive govt intervention.

SPX 1275 (200DMA) is going to imply oil at $100/bbl, 1307 $110-114/bbl. Inflation measures for November, December are going to be out of control.

They can't continuously do bailouts, so, crash postponed... 

Nice quote to remind us what we're dealing with


> Alas, in the meantime we are now just one day away from “FOHB Day”, Eff-Off Huge Bailout Day in which new record-setting standards of smoke-and-mirrors in public sector finance will be achieved. Those who have known me for a while will remember that I have always maintained that *credit risk is like energy – it can be converted but it can’t be destroyed*. This is a law of finance which is as clear and strong as the original law of physics. For its own reasons, the eurozone leadership is trying to find a way to rewrite the law and judging by the way markets have been trading of late, one might get the feeling that investors, for their own reasons are trying to believe that they can.


In finance, as in physics, muppets cannot change the rules


----------



## ddkay

DOW Googolplex^Googolplex


----------



## ddkay

What happened to futures? Was eating breakfast and now it's down 6-7 handles?


----------



## ddkay

Italy now...

Italy keeps EU waiting on eve of crucial summit


> By James Mackenzie and Ilona Wissenbach
> ROME/BRUSSELS | Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:24am EDT
> (Reuters) - Italy's divided government kept Europe waiting on Tuesday for long delayed reforms on the eve of a summit to devise a strategy to confront the euro zone's worsening debt crisis.
> 
> Just 24 hours before European Union leaders are due to adopt a plan to reduce Greece's debt burden, fortify European banks to withstand bond losses, and scale up the euro zone rescue fund to prevent market contagion, all eyes were on Rome.
> 
> Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's faction-ridden cabinet failed to agree at an emergency session late Monday on raising the retirement age, one of the key economic reforms demanded by Italy's EU partners as a condition for supporting its bonds.
> 
> Berlusconi responded defiantly to public pressure from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at an EU meeting on Sunday, saying in a statement that no one could teach Italy lessons.
> 
> [...] continued


----------



## ddkay

***DJ: Deutsche Bank Says Risks Tied to Italian Debt Doubled in Quarter


----------



## ddkay

Canadian dollar right now










Last chance for fence sitters


----------



## ddkay

Let's see what cash open does in 20 minutes... traders could be driving this down only to rip it higher moments later and mess with yer heads


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Let's see what cash open does in 20 minutes... traders could be driving this down only to rip it higher moments later and mess with yer heads


That's my concern.

To sell, or not to sell?

Blah! I think I'm starting to lean towards "dont sell".... but we will see at 9:30am


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> ***DJ: Deutsche Bank Says Risks Tied to Italian Debt Doubled in Quarter


I don't see a problem, can't they solve everything by one time accounting gains


----------



## larry81

Geez, Oil approaching 95$ ! What a rally !!!


----------



## KaeJS

Market is _telling_ me not to sell right now.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Market is _telling_ me not to sell right now.


Why would you sell now ? The party is scheduled to resume only tommorow !


----------



## ddkay

TSX opens flat and wavering around 12167.73 (+2.67/0.02%)

Dropping 20 points as I type this

Belguy, what should I do?


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Why would you sell now ? The party is scheduled to resume only tommorow !


Exactly!

I was just thinking if it was going to drop enough and if I was swift enough I could sell now and buy again at 3:00pm.

I changed my mind lol


----------



## ddkay

Crude up $10 in 2.5 days, has demand changed so much to account for that rise in prices? of course not

/ES down 17 points from this mornings peak

This sell off is real boys and girls, dusting off my VIX toolkit


----------



## ddkay

Buona Notte: EU FINANCE MINISTERS MEETING TOMORROW CANCELLED


----------



## ddkay

Unfortunately EcoFin isn't the EU leaders summit (Eurogroup)


----------



## ddkay

This mornings BoC release re interest rates



> OTTAWA, Oct. 25, 2011 /CNW/ - The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
> 
> The global economy has slowed markedly as several downside risks to the projection outlined in the Bank's July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) have been realized. Financial market volatility has increased and there has been a generalized retrenchment from risk-taking across global markets. The combination of ongoing deleveraging by banks and households, increased fiscal austerity and declining business and consumer confidence is expected to restrain growth across the advanced economies. The Bank now expects that the euro area--where these dynamics are most acute--will experience a brief recession. The Bank's base-case scenario assumes that the euro-area crisis will be contained, although this assumption is clearly subject to downside risks. In the United States , diminished household confidence, tighter financial conditions and increased fiscal drag are expected to result in weak real GDP growth through the first half of 2012, before growth strengthens gradually thereafter. In Japan , reconstruction activity is projected to boost growth over 2012-13, although Japan's economy will be constrained by reduced global activity and the sharp appreciation of the yen. Growth in China and other emerging-market economies is projected to moderate to a more sustainable pace in response to weaker external demand and the lagged effects of past policy tightening. These developments, combined with recent declines in commodity prices, are expected to dampen global inflationary pressures.
> 
> The outlook for the Canadian economy has weakened since July, with the significantly less favourable external environment affecting Canada through financial, confidence and trade channels. Although Canadian growth rebounded in the third quarter with the unwinding of temporary factors, underlying economic momentum has slowed and is expected to remain modest through the middle of next year. Domestic demand is expected to remain the principal driver of growth over the projection horizon, though at a more subdued pace than previously anticipated. Household expenditures are now projected to grow relatively modestly as lower commodity prices and heightened volatility in financial markets weigh on the incomes, wealth and confidence of Canadian households. Business fixed investment is still expected to grow solidly in response to very stimulative financial conditions and heightened competitive pressures, although it will be dampened by the weaker and more uncertain global economic environment. Net exports are expected to remain a source of weakness, owing to sluggish foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
> 
> Overall, the Bank expects that growth in Canada will be slow through mid-2012 before picking up as the global economic environment improves, uncertainty dissipates and confidence increases. The Bank projects that the economy will expand by 2.1 per cent in 2011, 1.9 per cent in 2012, and 2.9 per cent in 2013.
> 
> The weaker economic outlook implies greater and more persistent economic slack than previously anticipated, with the Canadian economy now expected to return to full capacity by the end of 2013. As a result, core inflation is expected to be slightly softer than previously expected, declining through 2012 before returning to 2 percent by the end of 2013. The projection for total CPI inflation has also been revised down, reflecting the recent reversal of earlier sharp increases in world energy prices as well as modestly weaker core inflation. Total CPI inflation is expected to trough around 1 per cent by the middle of 2012 before rising with core inflation to the two per cent target by the end of 2013, as excess supply in the economy is slowly absorbed.
> 
> Several significant upside and downside risks are present in the inflation outlook for Canada. Overall, the Bank judges that these risks are roughly balanced over the projection horizon.
> 
> Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With the target interest rate near historic lows and the financial system functioning well, there is considerable monetary policy stimulus in Canada. The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
> 
> Information note:
> 
> A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 26 October 2011. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 6 December 2011.
> 
> /CONTACT: Jeremy Harrison
> 613 782-8782
> 
> Copyright CNW Group 2011
> 
> (END) Dow Jones Newswires
> 10-25-11 0949ET


----------



## ddkay

***Source at George Papandreou team: Greece won't accept admin role for Troika or Task Force. "He's ready to blow the whole thing up"


----------



## Argonaut

KaeJ, I hope you didn't sell your CGL. Recent spike in gold.


----------



## ddkay

Crude is climbing back up too, this is "price stability"


----------



## larry81

We will finish the day on the green side


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> KaeJ, I hope you didn't sell your CGL. Recent spike in gold.


I still didn't sell HBU, maybe sell now , lock 4.5% and run away


----------



## ddkay

Gold 1703

- .... . . -. -.. .. ... -. .. --. ....


----------



## andrewf

But it's not 2012 yet.

I still have my position in UGL.


----------



## ddkay

@KaeJS DJ 2nd UPDATE: ArcelorMittal Surprises With U-Turn On Macarthur Deal


----------



## ddkay

50 Cent is on CNBC enlightening viewers on how to get rich


----------



## fernandes90

ddkay said:


> 50 Cent is on CNBC enlightening viewers on how to get rich


Or die trying?


----------



## ddkay

Took 5% on HVU, today was a good day, loved the 3pm panic hour


----------



## ddkay

Tom DeMark has a short-term SPX target of 1206, then a bounce to recent highs over the next 8 or 9 sessions, and then capitulation


----------



## ddkay

Amazon just got deforested, -15% afterhours. EPS $0.14 on $0.24 estimate.


----------



## Jungle

Wow, what happend? *Edit: they spent too much on the tablet. Profit down 73%!


----------



## ddkay

They also hired more employees, 8,100 additions in the last quarter and 20,100 from Q3 2010

Stock picking is a tough game, especially in tech. I would also say AMZN is a momo stock, P/E 100 and in a pretty strong uptrend since December 2008, some type of reversal event was bound to happen.


----------



## gibor365

Sold HBU 17 23.31 with 5% gain...hells knows what will happen tomorrow


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> Stock picking is a tough game, especially in tech. I would also say AMZN is a momo stock, P/E 100 and in a pretty strong uptrend since December 2008, some type of reversal event was bound to happen.


True, but unlike nerflix they are a solid brand, growing revenues, however they need to clean up their expenses, with 18B (Q4) of revenues they should get more than 200M in profit, that's almost no profit at all.

Unfortunately they also have a history of misses, doesn't bode well for the near future.

Not for me ;-)


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Tom DeMark has a short-term SPX target of 1206, then a bounce to recent highs over the next 8 or 9 sessions, and then capitulation


 Do you believe him?
So he predicting 4% gain on S&P when it hits 1206 and than 5% loss....


----------



## ddkay

He was on Bloomberg today at 3:05, these guys have a better transcript

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ay-trap-bulls-after-rallying-above-1-254.html

I think if EZ disappoints tomorrow we'll crash again, but we may not. No one knows for sure. Some people call it 'noise', it's a reference point to me.



> Oct 25- Substantial widening of credit default swap (CDS) spreads for some of the largest basic materials companies are denoting growing struggles, according to Fitch Solutions in its latest earnings commentary.
> 
> Spreads for United States Steel Corporation (reporting today) have moved out 103% over the past three months, notably underperforming the broader industry, of which CDS has widened 38%. 'Credit protection on US Steel is now pricing in line with 'B-' levels, potentially signaling market concern over demand for materials amid a sluggish economy,' said Author and Director Diana Allmendinger.
> 
> A similar widening CDS trend is evident for Dow Chemical Company (reporting Thursday). CDS spreads have widened 114% over the last three months while CDS liquidity has moved up two rankings to trade in the seventh regional percentile. 'Higher CDS liquidity for Dow Chemical signals increased uncertainty over future pricing,' said Allmendinger.


US Steel closed -10% today
DOW closed -5% today


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> He was on Bloomberg today at 3:05, these guys have a better transcript
> 
> http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ay-trap-bulls-after-rallying-above-1-254.html


So if this guy is correct , buy TNA when S&P hits 1206 , make about 15% , sell , buy TZA and make another 15% 

OK, I'm ready! Anyone goes for it?! Bellguy?!


----------



## Jungle

WOOT! CNR profit up 19%!! http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE79O7HX20111025


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> KaeJ, I hope you didn't sell your CGL. Recent spike in gold.


I caught that. Didn't sell. Still own 200. 



ddkay said:


> @KaeJS DJ 2nd UPDATE: ArcelorMittal Surprises With U-Turn On Macarthur Deal


Saw this. Thanks, ddkay. I didn't sell MT. Will buy more if it drops below $18.00



gibor said:


> So if this guy is correct , buy TNA when S&P hits 1206 , make about 15% , sell , buy TZA and make another 15%
> 
> OK, I'm ready! Anyone goes for it?! Bellguy?!


That's a good way to go broke!


----------



## KaeJS

Other side of the world doesn't look impressed - again.


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> Other side of the world doesn't look impressed - again.


Don't pay any attention to the Japs, if that's what you referring to.
The Far Eastern markets are usually following what the Westerners did today, not the other way.
Wait until Europe opens.


----------



## hboy43

ddkay said:


> - .... . . -. -.. .. ... -. .. --. ....


Maybe so. Maybe not so.

hboy43


----------



## KaeJS

HaroldCrump said:


> Don't pay any attention to the Japs, if that's what you referring to.
> The Far Eastern markets are usually following what the Westerners did today, not the other way.
> Wait until Europe opens.


But doesnt the other side of the world start the trading week first?


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> But doesnt the other side of the world start the trading week first?


Yes, so they following end of previous week over here....Maybe I mistaken, but I have impression that on NIKKEI playing mostly North Americans


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I caught that. Didn't sell. Still own 200.
> 
> That's a good way to go broke!


If I play TZA/TNA , it will be with very , very small amounts ...couple of grands....

Oh Oh Gold is up 0.61% ...maybe I sold HBU too early.... did it because usually (if not always) I'm too late 

After almost 6% spike in 1 day , was expecting some pull back tomorrow....


----------



## HaroldCrump

gibor said:


> Yes, so they following end of previous week over here....Maybe I mistaken, but I have impression that on NIKKEI playing mostly North Americans


Right, the only time that the Japs determined market direction recently was on the day of the Fukushima earthquake.


----------



## Belguy

Tomorrow may be an interesting day over in Europe. 

I am planning on staying under the bed for the entire day!!

The debt problem over there is so big that even God himself would not be able to solve it!!

The politicians don't stand a chance!!

Nothing good is going to come of this!!!


----------



## Argonaut

Belguy, you should sell all of your indexes and just buy BCE.

Then we could call you Bellguy.


----------



## ddkay

Angela Merkel's schedule tomorrow:
-Talks to Bundestag at noon German time 11AM GMT/5AM EST
-EU Summit at 4PM GMT/10AM EST


----------



## KaeJS

Why can't they just blow it up already?

This has gone on too long.


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> Belguy, you should sell all of your indexes and just buy BCE.
> 
> Then we could call you Bellguy.


Good idea. I will likely profit from this.


----------



## KaeJS

Futures are Green?!

DJIA INDEX 11,697.00 *35.00* 11,665.00 11,697.00 11,665.00 22:56
S&P 500 1,228.90 * 4.30* 1,225.50 1,229.30 1,223.30 22:58
NASDAQ 100 2,330.00 *8.25* 2,323.00 2,330.00 2,322.00 22:56


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Futures are Green?!
> 
> DJIA INDEX 11,697.00 *35.00* 11,665.00 11,697.00 11,665.00 22:56
> S&P 500 1,228.90 * 4.30* 1,225.50 1,229.30 1,223.30 22:58
> NASDAQ 100 2,330.00 *8.25* 2,323.00 2,330.00 2,322.00 22:56


houga booga ! do you sell your SU tommorow


----------



## KaeJS

I wouldn't start thinking about selling SU until it hit $40 again.


----------



## Argonaut

Larry that was your 666th post, does this mean armageddon for Suncor?

I think there is a high percentage chance of declines tomorrow. Europe is always prone to disappoint, and even if they don't.. there is still a sell the news possibility.


----------



## larry81

Argonaut said:


> Larry that was your 666th post, does this mean armageddon for Suncor?
> 
> I think there is a high percentage chance of declines tomorrow. Europe is always prone to disappoint, and even if they don't.. there is still a sell the news possibility.


If Suncor goes armageddon mode, it mean the whole equities markets are


----------



## ddkay

DJ: ECB's Draghi says Italian banks face short term liquidity tensions, Bank of Italy requests banks to maintain balanced liquidity positions
DJ: Merkel: Troika Report Shows Greece At Beginning Of Long Journey
RTRS: German Chancellor Merkel says EFSF guidelines ensure no aid without strict conditions
BBG: Merkel says EU may seek additional IMF crisis financing
DJ: IMF Thinks 60% Greek Debt Writedown Is Not Enough-Senior EU Source
BBG: Merkel says Greece Goal Is Deficit 120% of GDP by 2020
BBG: Merkel says a treaty change is always risky but there is no option but to adapt quickly - there is no rule that this must always take a decade
DJ: Merkel: No one should take another 50 years of peace in Europe for granted

In other words, if Europe fails and Germany fails, it's war!


----------



## ddkay

BBG: Parliamentary source says Germany's Bundestag lower house of parliament approves motion to strengthen EFSF via leverage

... whenever it's funded


----------



## ddkay

RTRS: Agreed motion says EFSF cannot be financed through the ECB


----------



## ddkay

DJ: EU's Juncker expects considerable structural measures from Italy

This guy should be a stand up


----------



## ddkay

BBG: EU talks with banks on Greek bond losses said to be deadlocked

Markets red!

BBG: EU official says involuntary Greek haircuts can't be ruled out


----------



## ddkay

BBG: EU leaders said to set back EFSF leveraging options tonight
BBG: EU official says EFSF capacity to be determined by the end of November // Why not for Christmas?


----------



## ddkay

RTRS: Fist fights, throat-grabbing causes Italian parliament to be suspended // lol


----------



## ddkay

I'm not trading today, traders vs traders and extreme tension building up. Will probably be the biggest move of this year, but extremely unpredictable so I'm happy missing it, rather be safe than sorry.

DJ: Greek debt swap would take several weeks according to a EU official // unlikely, longer


----------



## ddkay

There are only €13bn of EFSF bonds in existence. They'll need to issue more if they ever want to use the EFSF.


----------



## ddkay

Oil supply up and now oil prices declining

SPX/Y hitting new lows of the day


----------



## Toronto.gal

ddkay said:


> RTRS: Fist fights, throat-grabbing causes Italian parliament to be suspended // lol


Italians are so passionate & we're so polite over here, aren't we? 

This made me LOL:

"Could you see Hudak rushing over to pound the crap out of Dalton?" 

Though Hudak might have felt like doing just that to Frank Klees yesterday for potentially giving the Liberals a majority.


----------



## ddkay

FT wrote a more detailed account of that fight on their live blog lol

13.47: It’s all kicking off in Rome. At least two deputies from the Northern League, a member of the ruling centre-right coalition, had a fist-fight with members from the opposition FLI party of speaker Gianfranco Fini, Reuters reports. Two deputies grabbed each other by the throat as other parliamentarians rushed to separate them, while parliament was temporarily suspended.

The trouble broke out because of sarcastic remarks on television by Fini alleging that the wife of League leader Umberto Bossi had retired at 39. Bossi has steadfastly refused to make more than slight concessions on changing Italy’s generous pension system as part of reforms demanded by European leaders.


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> "Could you see Hudak rushing over to pound the crap out of Dalton?"


Hurricane Hazel would beat a living crap out of both of these numbnuts.


----------



## ddkay

DJ: Denmark PM: Solution Needed Tonight To Avoid Greek Default


----------



## Toronto.gal

Homerhomer said:


> Hurricane Hazel would beat a living crap out of both of these numbnuts.


Do you mean that 'men were created equal; women superior?'


----------



## ddkay

Translated from http://www.linkiesta.it/grecia-fondo-salva-stati-italia-l-europa-non-si-accorda-su-niente



> October 26, 2011 - 17:30
> 
> Now it is not just a matter of Greek crisis. Under the guise of Athens, the European Union has lost the plot. From Greek tragedy to farce European Union, one might say, given the sad spectacle that the EU is putting on the last two weeks. The appointment today was to be, at least in the intentions of Berlin, the turning point of the crisis dell'eurodebito. Instead, he will be remembered as yet another occasion on which to take time. For now there is no certainty on three crucial points for the future of the euro: the amount of recapitalization of banks in Europe, the total allocation of the fund-saving states European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the fate of Athens. Only laconic statements of intent, as the Italian ones on the structural reforms required by Brussels to Italy.
> 
> There is no agreement on anything. Although the lower house of German parliament has approved by a majority of the fund EFSF the ability to use leverage, it is still unclear how will help countries in difficulty, or to the amount in its final version . "Communications concerning this issue there will be only at the end of November," said a senior EU Commission official news agency Dow Jones. So, even at the G20 in Cannes, scheduled for next week, there will be no concrete solution.
> 
> Even more complicated the situation for the failure of Greece. Archived able to save the bailout through Athens in May 2010 (110 billion), the troika composed of the European Central Bank (ECB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and EU Commission is opting for the management of the default. On the night are in fact continue the negotiations between the banking lobby Institute of International Finance (IIF), the Hellenic Government and international institutions for debt restructuring greek. Forgot the summit of the European Council of 21 July, when it was approved a second 109 billion bailout, now holding court is the structure that will be able to contain the effects of the failure of Greece. As explained by the Bank for International Settlements in its latest report on international banks, France is exposed for about $ 90 billion on Greece, while Germany, the second creditor country in Europe to 29 billion. On the amount of public debt by about 365 billion euros, according to the latest IMF data, it is easy to understand why Berlin is right to press for a heavy restructuring Greek. Paris continues instead to invoke a larger project, can provide a lifeline to French banks, through the fund EFSF.
> 
> The banking lobby IIF has made ​​an offer on the night, but it is not enough. According to banking sources, the package put on the plate dall'Iif, presided over by a number of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, provides for a haircut, that is a bad value Hellenic rated bonds, between 50% and 55 percent. That is much less than should be in Athens for a sustainable reduction of its debt, as evidenced by reports that Linkiesta published last Saturday . But very close to what is revealed by a senior official of the ECB to Linkiesta September 30 last year . The President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg, admitted that "the negotiations will be brief and can not be excluded any opportunity." After all, had been a German official of the European Commission to stress as "a creditors' voluntary participation is not in the agreement on Greece's debt can not be excluded." In other words, would be the worst case scenario, that of the most devastating failure.
> 
> Everything seems to go for the worst. On the one hand the EU has emphasized throughout his ineffectiveness in the management of critical issues facing financial. The ballet between France and Germany over the fate of Athens continues to unsettle financial markets and threatens to delay the future of the eurozone. Today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed that "the EU treaties should be reformed." Many observers have seen in this declaration the official opening of a possible expulsion of countries that fail to comply with European standards of debt and deficit, just like Greece.
> 
> To suffer in this climate of uncertainty is also Italy, now considered a universal level as the sick man of Europe. The pressure the EU to Rome not complete without the presence of a specific repayment plan and public spending to stimulate economic growth, the weakest point of our country. In the coming year will be due and must be refinanced 800 billion euros, nearly half of the stock of public debt. "At this rate of interest, it is already so unsustainable," he stressed this morning the U.S. bank JP Morgan in a note to institutional clients. It is not a good sign, nor Italy nor in Europe.


----------



## arie

*greece*

the greeks should have been kicked out of the euro zone at the begining ; they fudged the books to get into the euro initially and lived the high life with generous pensions etc and no one paying taxes ; its all coming home to roost and the others should have cut them loose 

a managed default by Greece is the best option which is more or less what they are trying to do now ; but the only way Greece will get out of this is go back to their own currency and let it devalue so they can sell their products at a lower price 

what is happening to Italy is another matter; if they do not get their act together the whole euro thing is DOA


----------



## Rommel

arie said:


> the greeks should have been kicked out of the euro zone at the begining ; they fudged the books to get into the euro initially and lived the high life with generous pensions etc and no one paying taxes ; its all coming home to roost and the others should have cut them loose
> 
> a managed default by Greece is the best option which is more or less what they are trying to do now ; but the only way Greece will get out of this is go back to their own currency and let it devalue so they can sell their products at a lower price
> 
> what is happening to Italy is another matter; if they do not get their act together the whole euro thing is DOA


The Greeks should have never been allowed entry, nor many of the smaller states or the states with shady accounting practices to begin with.

The EU was designed to unify Europe in many areas but create a fiscal and military offset compared to the US. It was intended to make things easier to allow Europe to progress forward on common interests. It's nothing but a circus now and unfortunately the strongest member state is trying to lead but none of the degenerate nations are willing to be lead.

As such it is wreaking havoc on financial markets and institutions worldwide.


----------



## kcowan

*Four bad bear markets*

From *The Big Picture*:


If we assume that this slump follows the previous two, then we have another *750+ days* to go before we get back to zero. And we are over 1000 days into it.

I expect the next 2 years will be more twists and turns along the way.

Any more room under your bed Belguy?


----------



## ddkay

Looks like everyone was anticipating bad news or a "sell the news" event today, and the market didn't do what everyone was expecting it to do because it was too obvious. The trading Gods aren't that nice... So maybe a few more bulls will get sucked into this rally into close and get puked out tomorrow. Best bear case is if SPX hits 1235, then 1215, then tomorrow is going to be painful.


----------



## ddkay

Chinese Marshall Plan...



> China has agreed to invest in the euro bailout fund, European Union diplomats said Wednesday. The eurozone is asking emergency economies to contribute to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) which a meeting later Wednesday was set to beef up.
> 
> “China is in,” an unnamed diplomat in Brussels told the AFP news agency. "But not yet Brazil, Russia, India or South Africa." Another diplomat confirmed the news.
> 
> http://www.english.rfi.fr/asia-pacific/20111026-china-agrees-invest-euro-bailout-diplomats


----------



## HaroldCrump

Rommel said:


> *The Greeks should have never been allowed entry*
> 
> *The EU was designed to unify Europe in military offset compared to the US.*


Willkomen, Herr Generalfeldmarschall Rommel. Sie sing die Wüstenfuchs.


----------



## Belguy

Note from under the bed: Any news on the final report out of European meeting yet?

Greece is bad but Italy is three times worse and is the third biggest economy in the Euro zone. 

Greece doesn't matter much but Italy matters a lot.

Next problem is that the Congressional Super Committee in the U.S. fails to come up with the necessary recommendations to correct the mess there.

A wall of worry!!!


----------



## larry81

Anyone who want to follow the Euro shitstorm can do it here:

http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/10/eurozone-crisis-the-evening-session/

If anyone have better source, keep us posted


----------



## Rommel

HaroldCrump said:


> Willkomen, Herr Generalfeldmarschall Rommel. Sie sing die Wüstenfuchs.



In der tat? Aber "Sie sind" nicht "Sie sing die", ja? Rommel ist maennlich!!!! oder wer ist der Wüstenfuchs?

lol


----------



## Rommel

Belguy said:


> Note from under the bed: Any news on the final report out of European meeting yet?
> 
> Greece is bad but Italy is three times worse and is the third biggest economy in the Euro zone.
> 
> Greece doesn't matter much but Italy matters a lot.
> 
> Next problem is that the Congressional Super Committee in the U.S. fails to come up with the necessary recommendations to correct the mess there.
> 
> A wall of worry!!!


Congressional super committee, I have my reservations on that one, especially who sits on it.

I'm pretty sure the committee creation was a common ground to at least show the people something is getting done whereas the automatic triggers were put in place so the committee wouldn't have to do heavy lifting. I have confidence the US will come out of this great recession on top but it's going to take a lot of political willpower to do the right thing and not the things necessary to win votes.

Start at the top. Get lost Obama, followed by Biden, Reid, Frank, Pelosi, Baucus etc. Before you say I am picking on Democrats consider the following. The largest run ups of debt and deficit in US history was because Democrats had the deciding "vote" or necessary clout. The GOP doesn't get a free ride however until the above five are gone, any road to recovery is misguided nonsense.

The US needs to severely cut back on spending and eliminate certain departments. They then need to learn to balance budgets and amend the tax code for lower taxes across the board. Finally term limits for the house and judiciary bodies.

I am sure Liberal counterparts would have a bone or two to pick with the above but the issue here is getting the US back on track. Cut taxes for the working class and companies to create jobs and you're going to find that tax receipts increase.

Don't get me started on the Fed


----------



## Belguy

No news from Europe until after the North American markets close for the day?


----------



## ddkay

From the WSJ...



> For your reading pleasure, we've cut and pasted below the full statement coming out of the first meeting of the Summit to End All Summits, Until the Next Summit.
> 
> Woefully short on details, if this were a term paper, you'd get an "F" on it, as Paul Vigna and John Shipman commented earlier.
> 
> But of course the stock and forex markets are giving this an "A," as Tom Lauricella noted. The bond market might have a different verdict.
> 
> Just to clarify, this is not yet the full Plan to Save the World (The Prequel) (copyright Tom Lauricella ). This is the statement that came at the end of the first part of the SEASUNS, after which will come The Prequel. Perhaps that will be more detailed. We'll hold our breath.
> 
> Full text after the jump:
> Brussels , 26 October 2011
> STATEMENT OF EU HEADS OF STATE OR GOVERNMENT
> At today's meeting, in line with paragraph 7 of the European Council conclusions of 23 October concerning relations between the EU and the Euro area, the members of the European Council were informed by President Van Rompuy about the state of preparations of the Euro Summit that will take place later in the day
> 
> They discussed the situation and underlined their common resolve to do their utmost to overcome the crisis and to help face in a spirit of solidarity the challenges confronting the European Union and the Euro area.
> 
> They welcomed the consensus on measures to restore confidence in the banking sector reached by the Council (ECOFIN) on 22 October. On this basis, they agreed the text annexed to this statement subject to agreement on the measures indicated in this text forming part of a broader package, including the decisions to be taken by today's meeting of the Euro Summit. The Council ( ECOFIN) will finalise the work and adopt the necessary follow up measures.
> 
> Consensus on banking package
> 1. Measures for restoring confidence in the banking sector (banking package) are urgently needed and are necessary in the context of strengthening prudential control of the EU banking sector. These measures should address:
> a. The need to ensure the medium-term funding of banks, in order to avoid a credit crunch and to safeguard the flow of credit to the real economy, and to coordinate measures to achieve this.
> b. The need to enhance the quality and quantity of capital of banks to withstand shocks and to demonstrate this enhancement in a reliable and harmonised way.
> 
> Term funding
> 2. Guarantees on bank liabilities would be required to provide more direct support for banks in accessing term funding (short-term funding being available at the ECB and relevant national central banks), where appropriate. This is also an essential part of the strategy to limit deleveraging actions.
> 
> 3. A simple repetition of the 2008 experience with full national discretion in the setting-up of liquidity schemes may not provide a satisfactory solution under current market conditions. Therefore a truly coordinated approach at EU- level is needed regarding entry criteria, pricing and conditions. The Commission should urgently explore together with the EBA, EIB, ECB the options for achieving this objective and report to the EFC.
> Capitalisation of banks
> 
> 4. Capital target: There is broad agreement on requiring a significantly higher capital ratio of 9% of the highest quality capital and after accounting for market valuation of sovereign debt exposures, both as of 30 September 2011 , to create a temporary buffer, which is justified by the exceptional circumstances. This quantitative capital target will have to be attained by 30 June 2012 , based on plans agreed with national supervisors and coordinated by EBA. This prudent valuation would not affect the relevant financial reporting rules. National supervisory authorities, under the auspices of the EBA, must ensure that banks' plans to strengthen capital do not lead to excessive deleveraging, including maintaining the credit flow to the real economy and taking into account current exposure levels of the group including their subsidiaries in all Member States, cognisant of the need to avoid undue pressure on credit extension in host countries or on sovereign debt markets.
> 
> 5. Financing of capital increase: Banks should first use private sources of capital, including through restructuring and conversion of debt to equity instruments. Banks should be subject to constraints regarding the distribution of dividends and bonus payments until the target has been attained. If necessary, national governments should provide support , and if this support is not available, recapitalisation should be funded via a loan from the EFSF in the case of Eurozone countries.
> State Aid
> 
> 6. Any form of public support, whether at a national or EU-level, will be subject to the conditionality of the current special state aid crisis framework, which the Commission has indicated will be applied with the necessary proportionality in view of the systemic character of the crisis.
> -For continuously updated news from The Wall Street Journal , see WSJ.com at http://wsj.com.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Rommel said:


> In der tat? Aber "Sie sind" nicht "Sie sing die", ja? Rommel ist maennlich!!!!


ja, es tut mir leid.
Wüstenfuchs - Sie sind der Wüstenfuchs, Herr Rommel


----------



## Toronto.gal

Ich verstehe, lol.


----------



## gibor365

_5:27 PM Goldcorp (GG): EPS of $0.57 beats by $0.24. Revenue of $1.3B (+48% Y/Y). (PR) _

so why it's down in after hours? 

Futures up 0.5% , sometning new from EU?


----------



## dogcom

Everyone knows that gold companies are going to do very well so it is priced in already. I have recently purchased HEP which seems to follow Goldcorp when you compare them but the only difference is you get a dividend as the ETF uses a covered call strategy on the gold producing companies it buys. Of course if Goldcorp as an example really takes off the downside is your gains will be capped.


----------



## KaeJS

Hope I didn't sell too early. 

But I didn't want to take my chances!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Up, up, and away for the rest of the year!

At least thats what many of the CNBC talking heads are saying. Having bought a whack of stocks in the last week, I hope they are right.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Hope I didn't sell too early.
> 
> But I didn't want to take my chances!


I sold HBU too early , today it was up another 1.5% 

Holding G.TO as a long term ....


----------



## Argonaut

When Merkel and Sarkozy were kids their favourite past-time was playing kick the can.

After Netflix, I'm not really too worried about what my losing SPY puts are doing, but I'll hold them until Hallowe'en and sell then if the market is still hanging in there. Something's got to give. US GDP numbers tomorrow.


----------



## ddkay

"The slow formation of households is holding back recovery in the housing market: "The median age of first marriages has crept up by about a year since 2006—a statistically huge increase—and the overall marriage rate is at an all-time low. The number of women between 20 and 34 rose by about a million between 2008 and 2010, but the number of children born to the group dropped by 200,000."

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/economic-agony-today-twenty-somethings-143253138.html


----------



## Belguy

European talks break down:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...editors-on-new-rescue-package/article2214897/

So, what does this mean--more kicking of the can down the road?

This problem is not going to be solved by mortal men and certainly not by politicians who have to try to remain popular since, sooner or later, they have to face the wrath of the voters!


----------



## sags

Alan Greenspan was a guest host on CNBC today.

He said that US banks don't have a lot of direct exposure to Euro debt, but they do have a lot of exposure to Euro banks.

Not sure exactly what he meant by that, but later he said banks don't report everything on their balance sheets.

I got the impression he didn't think US banks were a good place to invest.


----------



## ddkay

Sarkozy is playing the China card again. China openly detested supporting an EU bailout last week. Is Sarkozy's lie _too big to fail_? /ES ramped up again to 1250...


----------



## Mockingbird

The deal reached for 50% Greek bond write down and the overnight futures are happy so far.
Nice move in EUR as well. 

MB


----------



## larry81

Mockingbird said:


> The deal reached for 50% Greek bond write down and the overnight futures are happy so far.
> 
> MB


Hoora for the markets !


----------



## ddkay

It's really sad this Euro Zone thing didn't work out. It's the first time unification "worked" after generations of Europeans failed attempts at unification (Rome, Charlemagne, Napoleon). It's a debt crisis.

The alternative, another half century of war... Merkel hinted it today, people think _that's not possible in 2011_. It is. WWI and WWII were born out of expansionist policies of individual nation states.


----------



## ddkay

Who's celebrating the end of capitalism? Mr. Market is apparently... the EFSF still has no funding source, if and when they find one and can implement leverage, the inflation trade will be valid. Dow ten million.


----------



## ddkay

G-Pap speaking http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/player/streaming.cfm


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Who's celebrating the end of capitalism?


Definitely not me.


----------



## Argonaut

Canadian dollar above parity right now. Ugh, what should I do with the large amounts of USD I've accumulated. Maybe buy GLD.


----------



## larry81

All i see is green green green !

Are we in for a 2-3% rally this morning ?


----------



## ddkay

I'm keeping my USD, this is Europe's TARP moment.. remember what happened after October 3, 2008?

Go through the official Euro summit statement http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/125644.pdf



> To this end we invite Greece, private investors and all parties concerned to develop a voluntary bond exchange with a nominal discount of 50% on notional Greek debt held by private investors.


It's an invitation to an agreement, there is no agreement in itself. French banks, German banks, UK banks will not agree to a 50% writedown without triggering their credit protection (CDS). It's not a "voluntary" writedown just because a counterparty says so. Barclays has already written an angry letter to the ISDA about this. The only good news is 50% is better than 100%...



Code:


10/27/11 Global Stock Indexes at 00:25 EST/0425 GMT

                              Latest    Change  %Change  %12/31
Tokyo        Nikkei Stock    8847.84     99.37     1.14  -13.50  Intraday
             Nikkei 300       152.34      1.74     1.16  -16.46  Intraday
Hong Kong    Hang Seng      19370.62    304.08     1.59  -15.91  Intraday
Sydney       S&P/ASX 200     4331.90     89.40     2.11   -8.71  Intraday
             All Ord         4386.50     85.70     1.99   -9.50  Intraday
DJ Pacific   Pan-Asia         126.02      2.43     1.97  -11.58  Intraday
Bangkok      SET              952.19     13.51     1.44   -7.80  Intraday
Jakarta      JSX Comp        3783.71     45.10     1.21   +2.17  Intraday
Kuala L      Composite       1469.98     12.18     0.84   -3.22  Intraday
Manila       PSE             4262.49     37.73     0.89   +1.46  Intraday
Seoul        Kospi           1912.45     18.14     0.96   -6.76  Intraday
China        DJ CBN 600     22241.21     74.30     0.34  -16.70  Intraday
Shanghai     Composite       2436.84      9.36     0.39  -13.22  Intraday
             A Share         2552.33      9.75     0.38  -13.19  Intraday
             B Share          248.63      2.04     0.83  -18.31  Intraday
Shenzhen     A Share         1065.32      4.11     0.39  -21.15  Intraday
             B Share          589.48      5.45     0.93  -28.53  Intraday
Singapore    Straits T       2807.13     37.19     1.34  -12.00  Intraday
Taipei       Weighted        7564.13     28.31     0.38  -15.70  Intraday
Wellington   NZSX-50         3300.80      3.83     0.12   -0.25  Intraday


----------



## larry81

I read on another forum someone say that: "Greece is the cancer of europe"


----------



## Argonaut

I agree with you ddkay, but I think there's a saying: "The market can remain irrational for longer than my options expiration date". I'm not too concerned, because I'm 99% long anyway.


----------



## gimme_divies

KaeJS said:


> Definitely not me.


The root cause of the earth's inevitable destruction. No reason to hate it eh?


----------



## KaeJS

I actually like Capitalism.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Futures are soaring. Going to bed now. Hope to be a little wealthier tomorrow.


----------



## Miser

larry81 said:


> I read on another forum someone say that: "Greece is the cancer of europe"


It is a festering wound....the cancer will be Italy!


----------



## Jungle

Yup, europe markets were up 2-3% and now NA going to open up 1-2%. Investors like the europe deal so far. Hopefully this will start the rally I have been waiting for.


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## ddkay

How do I change the thread title to Rumour Forecasts?


----------



## Jungle

How about ddkay's daily market analysis?


----------



## Homerhomer

Europe is way up, CAC 5%, DAX 4%, looks like great day for the market, I see it as a short term rally, don't know if it will last few hours, days, weeks or months but underlaying problems are not going away and are far from being solved.


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## Toronto.gal

Who knows how long it will last, so take advantage of it!


----------



## ddkay

If this continues into noon, I'm going long with TIGHT stops. Yes take advantage of it, but you are walking on thin ice! I would not surprised to see 30 handle reversals in 10 minutes in this market.

This plan was and is dead on arrival, let's say this unfunded dream gets funding, a 50% bond writedown is either replaced by bank profits or sovereign debt.

If replaced by bank profits, less savings/smaller bank balance sheets leads to less credit and less spending.

If sovereign debt, their deficits grow, austerity grows, and you have a reduction of individual and business spending and a deflating economy.

How is this bullish?


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## Toronto.gal

No one is saying this is bullish, but it is a rally nonetheless, no?


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## ddkay

Not all rallies are the same, if the market forms an island top, and then you're stuck on the island, it won't be a good feeling

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_reversal


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## Toronto.gal

It goes without saying that one has to be very careful and not just jump in.

Might be a good day for some to book profits as well.


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## KaeJS

I have a permanent smile on my face.


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## KaeJS

....and maybe Belguy will peek his head out from underneath the bed today?


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## ddkay

Get your cameras out /ES just hit 1272, 35 point move


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## ddkay

Bounced off the 200DMA and momentum is slowing, looks like a gap and fade so far

Reading updates from the CBOE VIX pit, market makers are having strokes


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## Jon_Snow

It seems as if the euphoria of the Europe deal is fading a bit as analysts start to poke holes in some of its parts.... market gains moderating a bit.


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## ddkay

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hV-05TLiiLU

"We have to pass the bill so you can find out what's in it"


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## Belguy

A month ago, stocks were undervalued and hindsight now shows that it was a good time to buy.

Today, stocks are fairly to over valued, given all of the uncertainties out there and thus it is a less attractive buying opportunity.

Buy during periods of maximum pessimism. Sell during periods of rising optimism.

The majority of investors are not successful because they get that exactly wrong.


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## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy, tell us whether you are buying. We can then go out do the opposite


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## larry81

Belguy said:


> A month ago, stocks were undervalued and hindsight now shows that it was a good time to buy.
> 
> Today, stocks are fairly to over valued, given all of the uncertainties out there and thus it is a less attractive buying opportunity.
> 
> Buy during periods of maximum pessimism. Sell during periods of rising optimism.
> 
> The majority of investors are not successful because they get that exactly wrong.


have you purchased anything in the last month Belguy ?

I was under that the impression that you were on the verge of mental breakdown due to market volatility and cnbc indigestion !

IMHO, you should SELL SOME OF YOUR EQUITIES ASAP


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## Four Pillars

larry81 said:


> I was under that the impression that you were on the verge of mental breakdown due to market volatility and cnbc indigestion !


I suspect that happened a long time ago.


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## Jon_Snow

SU and AA alone pretty much assure that this will be my most profitable day since I started investing. Everything else is just gravy... very tasty gravy. 

Got lots of dry powder (cash) available in case things get cheaper down the road. 100k GIC matures in Feb... my mind is racing with thoughts of what to do with that. 

Its going to be the classic mortgage pay off vs investing debate. I will be looking for helpful advice as I get closer to decision time.

P.S. I love the CMF.


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## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. A month ago, stocks were undervalued and hindsight now shows that it was a good time to buy.
> 
> 2a. Buy during periods of maximum pessimism.
> 
> 2b. Sell during periods of rising optimism.
> 
> 3. The majority of investors are not successful because they get that exactly wrong.


1. Hindsight does/did not show that it was a good time to buy, the stock price did!

2a. Which you never do.

2b. Which you never do.

3. And since you do neither, what does that make you?


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## Belguy

Can't sell at a loss! Holding for a bigger loss!

Can't buy either. No cash.

Other than holding, am doing nothing at the moment.

I did my buying several years ago and have been holding ever since, waiting to become a millionaire which now will have to wait until my next lifetime.

For you younger long term holders of index investments, better luck to you!!


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## Jon_Snow

Belguy, you do enjoy healthy divendend payouts every month, right?


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## ddkay

It's noon and SPX is now ABOVE the 200DMA making new highs. The rally must go on!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. Can't sell at a loss!
> 2. Can't buy either. No cash.
> 3. Other than holding, am doing nothing at the moment.
> 4. I did my buying several years ago and have been holding ever since.


1. You have never been in a gain situation?
2. Because you never sold.
3. That is the exact problem, doing nothing, and as you said, not just 'at the moment', but it seems for years you have been doing nothing except hold/whine.
4. And you never realized that had been a problem?


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## Argonaut

I've had a bear capitulation moment and am now 100% long with my usual asset allocation. Maybe a little more cash and stocks and a little less gold than I'd like, but I'll re-balance on TFSA day. The macro picture may still be bleak, but the market likes the Euro deal, and I'm not going to argue with the market.


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## Homerhomer

Argonaut said:


> *I've had a bear capitulation moment and am now 100% long with my usual asset allocation*. Maybe a little more cash and stocks and a little less gold than I'd like, but I'll re-balance on TFSA day. *The macro picture may still be bleak, but the market likes the Euro deal, and I'm not going to argue with the market*.


You got balls ;-)

I agree with the outlook, short term (up to few months) this seems to have legs.


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## Belguy

The market is responding, up or down, to every bit of news, good or bad.

That is what they mean when they say that we are in a period of high market volatility which is likely to remain in place for some considerable time to come.

Enjoy the ride!!

This is the kind of market that short term traders like.

For buy-and-holders, not so much!!


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## Toronto.gal

I'm impressed with you Argo. You've got cojones to be more polite!


----------



## ddkay

Trading XIV in 7.20 / 7.18 stop. I will NOT hold overnight. I also refuse to convert back to CAD (hyperinflation trade), this plan will fall apart before you know it.


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## Argonaut

Half in CAD and half in USD is good for sleeping at night.


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## ddkay

When I'm underwater YTD (will take 23% USD depreciation) I can call myself morally short. Infinitely monetizing debt and uncontrollably rising commodity prices are NOT a long term solution and will probably end in a real doomsday scenario, only Zero Hedge, gold bugs, oil bugs, and End The Fed conspiracy theorist protesters stand to benefit. Everyone else is screwed.


----------



## Argonaut

ddkay said:


> only Zero Hedge, gold bugs, oil bugs, and End The Fed conspiracy theorist protesters stand to benefit.


What about bed bugs? They'll stand to benefit when everyone else joins Belguy under the bed.


----------



## ddkay

yes, also bed bugs


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## ddkay

Tim Knight (creator of ProphetCharts software (used in thinkorswim)) posted this on his website, submit by a reader

2008 vs 2011 S&P Roadmap

So far every peak and trough has been almost matched to a tee

SPY Jan '12 124 strike put contracts are going for $4.38. Hope bulls drive this market up a bit more so I can buy one or two cheaper.


----------



## ddkay

OMG **RTRS: France's Sarkozy says not sure it's the best idea to have separation of retail banks from investment banks


----------



## ddkay

SPX could hit 1300 by close, it's 3pm power hour so anything can happen


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## ddkay

Here we go, the Financial Times lit a match: China is "very likely" to invest approximately $100bn in Euro bailout fund


----------



## Jungle

I'm so excited I have to watch the closing bell!


----------



## dcaron

*US Deficit Reduction "Supercommittee"*

Is anyone here planning on changing their allocation (temporarily moving to the sidelines) prior to Nov 23 + Dec 23 deadlines?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...110722-comparing-deficit-reduction-plans.html


----------



## cdnpennystocks

dcaron said:


> Is anyone here planning on changing their allocation (temporarily moving to the sidelines) prior to Nov 23 + Dec 23 deadlines?
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...110722-comparing-deficit-reduction-plans.html


I put a lot in right around Oct 4th so I have enjoyed a great rally so far. I am going to start taking some profit and keep it on the sidelines until I see another good entry point. 

I'm not going to sell everything, just 20% here, 50% there depending on the stocks. 

I have some nice stocks paying high dividends, so I usually just keep the money in there and buy more in each dip


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## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy said:


> This is the kind of market that short term traders like.
> 
> For buy-and-holders, not so much!!


There are many buy-and-holders on this board who purchased stocks when the markets went down. Buy-and-holders can definitely take advantage of market swings through disciplined rebalancing if they are so inclined. However, note that in markets that keep going down or keep going up, rebalancing will hurt returns.


----------



## Mockingbird

Mockingbird said:


> Despite all this "heavy on cash" talk, unfortunately most people wouldn't know the bargain even if they see one.
> Many missed in 1997 Asian Crisis, in 2001 Internet Bubble, in 2007 Credit Crunch, and many will miss again this time around.
> 
> For most, the regular DCA is the best answer.
> 
> My 2c.
> MB


As I posted in September 22, many people with cash didn't jump into the market. Either they didn't have a plan or they all think they know the market more than the market itself. Many pro traders call them dumb money as well. They'll end up chasing the market and the cycle will repeat itself. FWIW I'll say it again.. don't try to predict the market.

MB

PS: Be careful of what you read and hear in forums like this. Do your own research and have a plan.


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## andrewf

What have we missed exactly?


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## ddkay

Dumb money -> Currency Traders Suffering Worst Year Since 1991 as FX’s Taylor Loses 12%


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## Mockingbird

@andrewf: I was referring to those with high cash position and trying to time the market.

MB


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## larry81

I hate to quote myself but:



> Some people will look back at the last few weeks and wonder how come they missed x, y, z opportunity... Then, they will delay stocks purchase's, waiting for the 'next opportunity...and when another 20% dip finally come, they will say blablabla end of the world blablabla double dip yadada and wish they were in gic/hisa.
> 
> 'Buy When There's Blood In The Streets'


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## Mockingbird

ddkay said:


> Dumb money -> Currency Traders Suffering Worst Year Since 1991 as FX’s Taylor Loses 12%


Yes, it is a hedge fund. It shouldn't be any surprise to you if you know how hedggies operate. The rest of story will tell you what type of strategy lost money. And I'm pretty sure some funds made money though. 
Good story line for the public since FX-Concepts is one of the largest.

MB


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## ddkay

So what's your advice? Drop it all in after a 20% gain on the month?

The FX story was relevant because they follow macro, central bank activities, politics. All equity players have involuntarily become forex traders/investors in the last few months, everything depends on Europe, or China, but mostly Europe.


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## Toronto.gal

I could not agree more, a disciplined DCA plan is in fact the best & simple indeed.


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## ddkay

I absolutely disagree. If I DCA'd, I either would be -10% (looking at my Google portfolio from spring), or I would have run out of money and had to depend on margin for the riskiest of risky gains like KaeJS. Everyone makes money in a trending market, very few people know how to handle the type of volatility we've had in the last 3 months, and the one that don't know are chopped up and blown up like Kewku Adoboli.


----------



## Eder

Somehow I have more cash after today than in September when I was looking to get all-in. I'm such a *****.

Well I'm pretty sure the next buying opportunity (recession?) is only 5-6 months away.


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## Toronto.gal

IMO, disciplined investing is the best in falling markets. Better than not doing anything and/or timing the markets. 

For some long term stocks, I have purchased shares regularly [monthly & quarterly] through OSP & have no regrets. DCA does not mean not having cash at hand to take advantage of opportunities.


----------



## Homerhomer

larry81 said:


> I hate to quote myself but:


Larry, you like to brag don't you?


----------



## larry81

Homerhomer said:


> Larry, you like to brag don't you?


All I am saying is that there were so much doom and gloom on this forum in the last 2 months, it is irrational. Internet forecast tellers, zero hedge permabear and roubini disciple all mixed together in a big apocalyptic end of the market party !


----------



## Jungle

We bought quite a bit during the August-Sept dips. It's been working out-so far. Large caps only. 

If this market holds up, or gets better, it should make for a nice net worth update next week. A lot of people saw their net worth go down over the past couple months, because of the markets.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> I would have run out of money and had to depend on margin for the riskiest of risky gains like KaeJS.


*ddkay,* I am not offended at all, I just want to clarify.

I make risky bets, but I hold some pretty decent "stable" companies.

BCE, BMO, TRP, REI.UN, etc

I also carry gold and others, such as AAPL, CPG.TO and the likes to diversify.

...If you don't take some risks, how will you ever make any money?

XIU is down *-7.26%* YTD.
I am up *5.32%* YTD.


----------



## Belguy

There have been no end of pundits who have predicted an end of year rally--followed by a steep drop early in the New Year. They are suggesting that this will be one last opportunity to get out before Armageddon strikes.

Are you of this camp?


----------



## Mockingbird

ddkay said:


> So what's your advice? Drop it all in after a 20% gain on the month?
> 
> The FX story was relevant because they follow macro, central bank activities, politics. All equity players have involuntarily become forex traders/investors in the last few months, everything depends on Europe, or China, but mostly Europe.


The story specifically talks about "trading" forex. All I got from it is that some hedggies took a huge directional bet and lost in a chop. In another words, got greedy (too confident) and got caught. Happens all the time - even to the biggest and best. I don't believe it's relevant to many in here or the public. 

All I'm saying is have a plan and follow it with a discipline. In the long run, proper asset allocation, balancing, and regular contribution will work for many. Understanding of the market is quite different from being able to profit from it.

MB


----------



## ddkay

Right, but you also had to buy TZA during the August crash to make up for huge unexpected losses holding through the "the politicians will solve it" debt-ceiling mess

larry81's account wouldn't be up $23K without betting $100,000 on a single swing trade (likely more than most people should be risking in their account)

Taking abnormally enormous risk is not dollar cost averaging. A DCA approach would have kept the average investor underwater.

I was holding Suncor in my portfolio in the spring too. I bought it at $44, now it's $33. That's still a 25% loss. Where would DCA have brought me in the last 3 months? No where that matters...

For practically new market participants like myself, buying my first stocks, and puzzled why fundamental investing isn't working, DCA would have ruined my account and I might have given up on this whole thing entirely.

Heck, the only thing keeping Belguy sane and account afloat is dividend/yield payments for the last 10 years, not price appreciation!

@larry81, Zero Hedge or Roubini is not referenced in any significant way here. I don't even like Zero Hedge. If there is any "doom and gloom" in the world, it is because there is cause for concern!

Nothing has been solved: Europe has made an agreement to an agreement and have no capital to invest for this unicorns and rainbows plan. Sovereign credit spreads are exactly where they were last week, TED and LIBOR are still rising suggesting stress on lending between banks.

The only thing that is completely irrational is the rally in the stock market these last few weeks.

When Europe can raise money for their cause in the capital markets, that would justify a rally. Not anything that's happened in the last 48 hours.

The idea being "heavy on cash" is harmful is BS. There is nothing wrong or unsafe about being heavy on cash, if you expect an actual period of growth to follow, the people heaviest on cash can take the most advantage of it...


----------



## KaeJS

So, if you think buying TZA and other 3x leveraged ETF's is risky and you think DCA'ing wouldn't bring your head close enough to water, then:

What do you think was the best move?


----------



## ddkay

I did my research and I did what I thought made sense, I went to cash at the first opportunity, and I had more than acceptable gains on the year!

The earthquake and tsunami in Japan (world's 3rd largest economy) was going to disrupt supply chains and growth for the next few quarters, every reputable news source said that!

The debt-ceiling mess was going to degenerate into a game of chicken/brinkmanship, every reputable news source said that!

Greece was an elephant in the room, every reputable news source said that!


----------



## Mockingbird

ddkay said:


> chopchopchop, we're now below the 5DMA, still think the sky is falling. Just have to be patient, in a traders market "obvious" ideas rarely work. If sentiment does a 180 I'll be long on a sustainable move over 1250. But ultimately the EU bailout "plan" is going to fail. Exit underfunded EFSF bad dream enter underfunded continent nightmare.
> 
> Possible selloff after close? Neckline looks to be around 1190:


With all due respect, "anchoring" will kill any aspiring traders.
Hope you took advantage of your long over 1250 today.

MB

PS: There was a trendline break on Oct 10 and since never broke below your 1190 if you looked at a bigger picture.


----------



## ddkay

This was NOT a sustainable move over 1250, my definition of sustainable is a plan that could last and set me up for several multi-week/month swing trades, not a plan with a possible expiry of a couple of days and contingent on presently non-existent funding


----------



## hboy43

CanadianCapitalist said:


> There are many buy-and-holders on this board who purchased stocks when the markets went down. Buy-and-holders can definitely take advantage of market swings through disciplined rebalancing if they are so inclined. However, note that in markets that keep going down or keep going up, rebalancing will hurt returns.


This is what I have been doing. Some stocks, ie telecom, utilities, consumer are pretty much at where they were a year ago. They rose as a percentage of the portfolio. Others in the stable have had precipitous drops the last while and have dropped as a percentage of the portfolio - these are the ones I bought. In the last few months:

SU 300 @ 31.10
SU 400 @ 24.51
NBD 1000 @ 9.87
NBD 400 @ 9.40
NBD 1200 @ 8.08
BBD.B 1900 @ 5.18
BBD.B 2800 @ 3.60
RUS 500 @ 19.26

Only 5 of the above 8 trades as of today are up. A month or two ago maybe 2 of them. This is the nature of investing, you just must swing at reasonable pitches. (Three years ago some of the reasonable pitches were the banks, ie I got a tranche of BMO ~ $25.)

As of today percentage of my portfolio:

NBD 6.3
BBD.B 5.0
SU 5.9
RUS 4.8

All similar numbers to the more conservative holdings, ie T is 5.9% , banks 5-6% If/as they move to 7-10% they will be hived off gradually. 

Other notes: RUS has been in the portfolio 3 years, the other three (well SU predecessor Petro Canada) > 5 years. SU has been sold @ $46.xx and NBD @ $18.xx in the past. NBD is showing a lifetime loss in the aggregate, but I am ahead on the other 3 in the aggregate.

All this to help show a real live investor who:

Holds long term, some of my holdings are > 10 years.
Rebalances.
Buys more even on losing positions to rebalance (and buy lower).
Buys more on winning positions at a higher price to rebalance.
Sometimes takes years to show a profit in a position.
Makes trades that do really poorly in both the short term and long.
Is patient.
Doesn't panic.
In the aggregate has done well over the decades with this philosophy.
Rarely adds a new company to the "harem".
Trades average 6 times/year (perhaps 12 times/year last 2 or 3 years because times are "interesting")

Just a counterbalance to some of the other more vocal investing styles around here. Long term disciplined buy and hold (with rebalancing) investing works even if individual positions don't from time to time.

Cheers

hboy43


----------



## Mockingbird

You lost me there. Then why 60min chart?
Time frame is way too short - IMHO.

MB


----------



## ddkay

I was looking at the 60 minute chart [then] for day trades, I said I would go "long" (several days/weeks/months) the market and individual names if Europe had a credible plan to kick the can again, not a plan that can fall apart at any minute because austerity sparks more protests and tax evasion or emigration, not one that could fall apart because at any minute bondholders could refuse their voluntary writedowns, not one that could fall apart at any minute because the EFSF is unable to find funding


----------



## Belguy

"When investors come down from their highs, the problems will still remain."

--The Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ick-fix-to-its-financial-woes/article2216694/


----------



## KaeJS

If these futures aren't green in the morning...


----------



## ddkay

Without "disruption", this rally could continue, the dips will be bought, for another few sessions, but nothing (is supposed to go) straight up. This is the level I'm paying attention to next week...


----------



## Abha

Keep in mind that a lot of fund managers are sprucing up their portfolios so we may have another leg higher just from that scenario alone.

The best case scenario is if we consolidate and move sideways for a few sessions. Any major gap up again (that holds) would be a good opportunity to short.


----------



## ddkay

Likely scenario, we fall back into the trading range and remain there into the winter of 2012 and more people get chopped up. No growth story, no investment opportunity. No more market crashes until the market forces the US to impose budget cuts with austerity or Europe gets into another "deadlock" or something goes wrong in China.


----------



## larry81

I just say no to leveraged ETF.

And i don't take drugs either

I like your posts/comments/charts ddkay, keep em coming pal.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I sometimes think that some of you guys (and gals) with your charts, strange investment jargon, might be outsmarting yourselves sometimes. 

Its pretty much clear that no one knows what the heck is gonna happen.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> There have been no end of pundits who have predicted an end of year rally--followed by a steep drop early in the New Year. They are suggesting that this will be one last opportunity to get out before Armageddon strikes.
> 
> Are you of this camp?


Belguy i am not, but i am not a fortune teller either.

As i said in another thread, you should really do some research about the success rate of people who make 'predictions', especially when it come to the stocks market. You might have a big surprise !


----------



## larry81

Jon_Snow said:


> I sometimes think that some of you guys (and gals) with your charts, strange investment jargon, might be outsmarting yourselves sometimes.
> 
> Its pretty much clear that no one knows what the heck is gonna happen.


LISTEN TO THIS MAN

Nobody can predict the stock market. It is a sentient entity whose price already reflect all available informations.

I dont understand squat about technical analysis and lingo either, but, like in my day-to-day, i can recognize a good opportunity when i see one (ex: 3 can of tuna for the price of one!!!)


----------



## Jon_Snow

Larry, send me a PM if you see that tuna deal again.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> larry81's account wouldn't be up $23K without betting $100,000 on a single swing trade (likely more than most people should be risking in their account)
> 
> Taking abnormally enormous risk is not dollar cost averaging. A DCA approach would have kept the average investor underwater.
> 
> I was holding Suncor in my portfolio in the spring too. I bought it at $44, now it's $33. That's still a 25% loss. Where would DCA have brought me in the last 3 months? No where that matters...


I have "play money" for quick swing trade and obvious mispricing opportunity. However, i also have a real boring low cost broad index ETF portfolio. FYI, i did my regular DCA in the last two months as well and kept adding to my boring ETF's

My investment horizon is long term (25y+), i know that i will make much more $$$ with my boring ETF buffet than the swing trade i do here and there.

To each his own 

ps: leveraged ETF are the devil !


----------



## fatcat

> I sometimes think that some of you guys (and gals) with your charts, strange investment jargon, might be outsmarting yourselves sometimes.
> 
> Its pretty much clear that no one knows what the heck is gonna happen.


 there is plenty of evidence (hulbert) that some guys have beaten the stock market consistently using astrology ... i tend to be highly skeptical of all of these methods because at the end of the day it comes to one simple thing: you are trying to predict the future 

and so far no one (that i am aware of) has found a way to do that with any consistency at all

however as tools to sharpen your thinking, i have gained more respect for charting ... i can see that they provide another metric, another way of making trades ... they might be having an effect on some internal process even, like intuition, who knows ?


----------



## KaeJS

fatcat said:


> some guys have beaten the stock market consistently using astrology ...


----------



## KaeJS

These futures are freaking me out. 

Why the sudden red? 

Everyone is excited and then suddenly scared after 4pm?

I would really like a positive day tomorrow. Even if it is a relatively flat day. I just don't wanna see red.


----------



## KaeJS

I have a hard time grasping how the other side of the world follows the western world when their markets open before ours.

I mean, news comes out over the weekend and then the asian market opens first Shouldn't the western world be following the asian markets?


----------



## Jon_Snow

Would not surprise me in the least if the market takes a breather tomorrow.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I have a hard time grasping how the other side of the world follows the western world when their markets open before ours.
> 
> I mean, news comes out over the weekend and then the asian market opens first Shouldn't the western world be following the asian markets?


Futures trading here opens earlier than Asian markets, who more or less follows Futures.
The problem with Israeli market , who opens on Sunday (Israeli time)...


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> These futures are freaking me out.
> 
> Why the sudden red?
> 
> Everyone is excited and then suddenly scared after 4pm?
> 
> I would really like a positive day tomorrow. Even if it is a relatively flat day. I just don't wanna see red.


I also don't want to see red, but imho tomorrow will be flat day in range +/- 0.5%


----------



## Argonaut

Green is nice but I secretly want to see red. My biggest position, IPL.UN, and one of my favourites CNR are approaching all-time highs. Would like to get them a bit cheaper when I add to my positions on January 1st.


----------



## londoncalling

Argonaut said:


> Green is nice but I secretly want to see red. My biggest position, IPL.UN, and one of my favourites CNR are approaching all-time highs. Would like to get them a bit cheaper when I add to my positions on January 1st.


I also own IPL.UN and am considering dumping it in hopes that I can buy it back for a lower price between now and January. I have noticed the last few days it has been up or down about 30c from the day previous at each day's close. My fear is that if I make a move it will take off in the wrong direction. I guess I am afraid to pull the trigger because I tried to do a swap with IPL and another stock earlier this year and both stocks went the opposite direction that I wanted. 

Live and learn... Crash and burn! 

I guess I need to remember that past performance is not an indicator of future performance... Maybe I can redeem myself


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> These futures are freaking me out.
> 
> Why the sudden red?


OK, Belguy, where is KaeJS and what have you done to him?


----------



## Eder

Argonaut said:


> Green is nice but I secretly want to see red. My biggest position, IPL.UN, and one of my favourites CNR are approaching all-time highs. Would like to get them a bit cheaper when I add to my positions on January 1st.



I have a tight stop today on my CNR today, time to take that profit imo.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The yield is low & wish I could drip more, however, I am not touching CNI until I retire, which is several years down the road. Bought for $52.38 on Jan./2010!


----------



## Toronto.gal

larry81 said:


> I dont understand squat about technical analysis and lingo either, but, like in my day-to-day, i can recognize a good opportunity when i see one (ex: 3 can of tuna for the price of one!!!)


I understand maybe more than squat, lol, but I agree with you. Investing is not as complex nor time consuming as some people make it out to be, but more about common-sense when it comes to selecting investments.


----------



## JimmyAAA

Toronto.gal said:


> The yield is low & wish I could drip more, however, I am not touching CNI until I retire, which is several years down the road. Bought for $52.38 on Jan./2010!


I am one of the lucky 22,000 that has the ability to DRIP CN. I also get a 33% bonus on immediately vested shares up to 6% of salary.

When the company was trading around $45, I was telling everyone to keep buying. I can tell you this company is well run. Maybe not always a great place to work. But does it ever handle adversity well.

I do however divest a little now and then. I don't want to be too invested in one stock. Former employees from ENRON will tell you all about that.


----------



## Causalien

londoncalling said:


> I also own IPL.UN and am considering dumping it in hopes that I can buy it back for a lower price between now and January. I have noticed the last few days it has been up or down about 30c from the day previous at each day's close. My fear is that if I make a move it will take off in the wrong direction. I guess I am afraid to pull the trigger because I tried to do a swap with IPL and another stock earlier this year and both stocks went the opposite direction that I wanted.
> 
> Live and learn... Crash and burn!
> 
> I guess I need to remember that past performance is not an indicator of future performance... Maybe I can redeem myself


Euro bailout = commodity going up. Keep IPL. If you want to play, play the rising channel.


----------



## londoncalling

Causalien said:


> Euro bailout = commodity going up. Keep IPL. If you want to play, play the rising channel.


Thanks for the tip  I was just gonna hold tight and do mental trades for learning as I am still honing my skills as a swing trader...


----------



## ddkay

Italian BTP auction for EUR 3.08bln, 4.25% Jul'14, bid/cover 1.35 vs. Prev. 1.36 (yield 4.93% vs. Prev. 4.680%)

Italian BTP auction for EUR 0.871bln, 4.25% Sep'19, bid/cover 1.62 vs. Prev. 1.35 (yield 5.810% vs. Prev. 4.030%)

Italian BTP auction for EUR 2.980bln, 5.00% Mar'22, bid/cover 1.27 vs. Prev. 1.37 (yield 6.060% vs. Prev. 5.860%).

^ A 6.06% yield on 2022 bonds is not sustainable.

***RTRS: Italian 3-year BTP bond auction yield rises to highest since November 2000

***RTRS: Italian 10-year bond auction yield rises to new Euro lifetime high


The market doesn't care about Europe after this melt-up, so I'm going to stop posting news about it for now.

Santa Clauss rally believers are probably right, and Abha is probably right about the reason for this move, the majority of fund managers got smoked the last 3 months, somehow they increased fund volume or margin/credit and are aggressively marking up prices into the holiday season before year end redemption period to keep their jobs.

So my thesis is still dips will be bought until they can't be bought anymore... If BAC/MS/MF Global topple over, or terrorist-level headlines break out of Europe, a bear case is back. For now, enjoy the sunshine.


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> *^ A 6.06% yield on 2022 bonds is not sustainable.*
> 
> 
> ........
> 
> Santa Clauss rally believers are probably right, and Abha is probably right about the reason for this move, the majority of fund managers got smoked the last 3 months, somehow they increased fund volume or margin/credit and are aggressively marking up prices into the holiday season before year end redemption period to keep their jobs.
> 
> So my thesis is still dips will be bought until they can't be bought anymore... If BAC/MS/MF Global topple over, or terrorist-level headlines break out of Europe, a bear case is back. For now, enjoy the sunshine.


I believe 6% is the tipping point, they now officially can't pay it.

I tend to agree with your paragraphs, we may be warm and fuzzy before the poop hits the fan again, the poop will be much bigger than Greece IMO.


----------



## hboy43

ddkay said:


> larry81's account wouldn't be up $23K without betting $100,000 on a single swing trade (likely more than most people should be risking in their account)
> 
> Taking abnormally enormous risk is not dollar cost averaging. A DCA approach would have kept the average investor underwater.
> 
> I was holding Suncor in my portfolio in the spring too. I bought it at $44, now it's $33. That's still a 25% loss. Where would DCA have brought me in the last 3 months? No where that matters...
> 
> For practically new market participants like myself, buying my first stocks, and puzzled why fundamental investing isn't working, DCA would have ruined my account and I might have given up on this whole thing entirely.


How do you know $100,000 is an offside risk for Larry, do you know his net worth?

Yes, DCA leaves me under water TODAY relative to a year ago (or so). Is there some reason I have to be positive in the short run? 3 years ago the family net worth was less than half what it is today. All the DCA buying I did then seems to have worked out. It will this time too ... eventually.

With regard to your SU experience, you made at least 2 mistakes, buying at $44 (around the time I was selling at just under $47, alas not enough) and not buying at $31 or $25 like I did recently. Maybe you are wealthier than I am but it matters to me the $3700 or so I am up on the 700 recently acquired SU shares to go along with the 1200 I rode down from $47.

Do some math here: 200 SU @ $44 plus 300 SU @ $25. What is the ACB? What is your aggregate gain/loss at today's SU price? Why is this such a horrible outcome in this lengthy time frame of all of a year for an equity investment when everyone knows equity investments are only for the long term? You could have had this ACB outcome (or reasonably close to it), but chose not to. 

The sooner you get over the idea of never showing a loss on an investment, the sooner you will become a successful investor. I have held losing positions for YEARS and DCA'd for YEARS that eventually showed a profit in the aggregate. The most spectacular example would be Nova Chemicals. In the end I held 14400 shares, 2/3 of them purchased the last time after 7 previous losing buys over something like 5 or 8 years. I rebalanced back up to about 5% of portfolio and a few short weeks later it was 22% (IIRC) of the portfolio. I sold half into the market and waited for the buy out to complete for the other half. Most people would focus on the sunk cost of the tens of thousands of dollars I had already put into Nova and the paper loss showing that day. I chose to focus on the screaming bargain and put another 10 grand into it.

The issue isn't that you bought SU at $44 in the past and are showing a loss. The issue is the day it was at $25, was it a good buy at that price? Could you buy more and not be overweight? If yes to both, the correct thing to do is ignore what happened at $44 and take advantage of the opportunity at $25. 

It has been to my decades long benefit that most people can't understand this simple fact and act. If the soup is on sale buy it damn it!

As to if you are wondering who this *sshole is who is lecturing you, I am 49 years old, retired for a decade. Family employment income is currently < $90K due to my wife still working. I personally never made more than $70,000 in one year from employment, only 3 years (IIRC) did I ever make more than $50K. I paid my way through university. I have only inherited (sort of) $5K. I have held 5 or 6 companies to bankruptcy mostly back when the dollar amounts were small. Our net worth is low 7 figures and the amount in the stock market is also low 7 figures.

Fundamental investing is working, you are just too green to understand yet.

hboy43


----------



## HaroldCrump

hboy43 said:


> It has been to my decades long benefit that most people can't understand this simple fact and act. If the soup is on sale buy it damn it!
> ....
> Fundamental investing is working
> 
> hboy43


Excellent post (as usual), hboy!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Inspiring stuff there, hboy43... I'm 39 and am looking to retire soon as well... very encouraging to see the simalarities between our situations - incomes over the years, wives still working etc. A bit spooky, actually.


----------



## Toronto.gal

hboy43 said:


> 1. How do you know $100,000 is an offside risk for Larry, do you know his net worth?
> 
> 2. With regard to your SU experience, you made at least 2 mistakes, buying at $44...and not buying at $31 or $25 like I did recently.
> 
> 3. Fundamental investing is working, you are just too green to understand yet.
> hboy43


I was going to write same last night, but was too tired.

1. How do you know he did not average down from a higher price? 

2. Indeed you bought almost at the top! I think you were chasing the stock while it was going up & up when the Libyan crisis began. I bought in the mid $30's a year ago and in the mid $20's when the opportunity presented itself last month. I was happy not so much because I was able to average down, but because I now have more shares of a solid stock! 

You said you bought in the Spring, however, DCA is not a short term game, but a long & disciplined long term plan. You also said you're just starting out, if so, you should have a plan *+ patience,* but you seem to be in a hurry. How many do you think have a portfolio that has benefitted from appreciating prices this year?. 

*DCA example:*

- 100 shares x $44 = $4,400 [March]
- 25 shares x $34 = $850 [Jun]
- 25 shares x $28 = $700 [Sept.]
*- ACB = $39.66*

*No DCA:*

- 100 shares x $44 [March]
- ACB = $44

One does not require a lot of money to DCA and even though commission fees are incurred, if you have bought once/twice per quarter, you would not be down -25%. 

You spend way too much time with charts & with noise [news] & maybe missing opportunities because of it. 

There is NO better time to DCA than when markets are down as it is now that you can buy shares at lower prices and by the time prices recover, you would have accumulated shares without even realizing it!

3. I agree!


----------



## Toronto.gal

hboy43 said:


> I am 49 years old, retired for a decade...I personally never made more than $70,000 in one year from employment....I paid my way through university.
> hboy43


I forgot point #4, which should have been point #1 - impressive!


----------



## ddkay

hboy43 said:


> How do you know $100,000 is an offside risk for Larry, do you know his net worth?


I don't know his networth, but unless he has a $1mm+ net worth, he took an enormously expensive risk (10%+) for a non-guaranteed and small chance outcome with initially only a 6-12 month timeframe.



hboy43 said:


> The sooner you get over the idea of never showing a loss on an investment, the sooner you will become a successful investor. I have held losing positions for YEARS and DCA'd for YEARS that eventually showed a profit in the aggregate.


When I see a 25% paper loss (45% paper loss at the bottom) I start thinking there are probably better opportunities out there. Why throw good money after bad and tie up my capital? In the case of Suncor, why would I ACB into a company highly subject to geopolitical risk (Cpt. Hindsight to the rescue)? I went thru my trade confirmations, I actually bought it right at the start of the Libyan civil war (February 18, 2011), and I did take a loss because I automatically got stopped out during the Japan quake, but just a 2% loss, not 25% had I held and hoped all the monsters would go away.

Now I've had an additional 8 months to research the oil industry, the oil market and other commodities, I am not a believer in oil or oil companies valuations at all, even at these levels.



hboy43 said:


> IThe issue isn't that you bought SU at $44 in the past and are showing a loss. The issue is the day it was at $25, was it a good buy at that price? Could you buy more and not be overweight? If yes to both, the correct thing to do is ignore what happened at $44 and take advantage of the opportunity at $25.


If you actually believe the market is mispricing your investment, why not let the market do its thing, sell with it and buy lower? Everyone has different pain thresholds. I am not going to take a 25% paper loss and ACB into an investment that in the end could be a massive value trap like Eastman Kodak.

There is no rosetta stone to investing.



hboy43 said:


> As to if you are wondering who this *sshole is who is lecturing you, I am 49 years old, retired for a decade. Family employment income is currently < $90K due to my wife still working. I personally never made more than $70,000 in one year from employment, only 3 years (IIRC) did I ever make more than $50K. I paid my way through university. I have only inherited (sort of) $5K. I have held 5 or 6 companies to bankruptcy mostly back when the dollar amounts were small. Our net worth is low 7 figures and the amount in the stock market is also low 7 figures.
> 
> Fundamental investing is working, you are just too green to understand yet.


It's in the realm of possibility that the tried & tested methods that worked for your generation of investing will not work for mine. People change, behaviours change, the world changes.


----------



## Toronto.gal

ddkay said:


> I actually bought it right at the start of the Libyan civil war (February 18, 2011),


Exactly what I said! 

What you did I should have done with RIM, so the logic was not entirely wrong, however, you did not know the stock would get decimated, nobody does.


----------



## ddkay

I didn't even know there was a civil war happening until the week after, I was *very* dismissive of news when I started in the market. After QE2 began last Fall (I didn't even know what QE2 did) I was used to seeing stocks like OVTI ATML and CY rising 1-2% every day for weeks at a time, stop to consolidate and continue trending up again. That was easy money, that's when I made most of my money.


----------



## andrewf

'Averaging down' seems to be trying to deny the fundamental concept of a sunk cost. It might help to make you feel better about your losses, but I don't think it is a very good investing strategy.


----------



## Toronto.gal

andrewf said:


> 1. 'Averaging down' seems to be trying to deny the fundamental concept of a sunk cost.
> 
> 2. It might help to make you feel better about your losses, but I don't think it is a very good investing strategy.


1. Investing rules aren't carved in stone like that, it depends on the stock, the reason for it sinking, your goals, your risk tolerance, your intended position etc. Needless to say, averaging down should not be done every time a stock goes down. If one has 30 stocks and 50% go down, you obviously would not average down 1/2 of them or 1/4 even. 

2. It's about smart investing and not simply about buying a stock because it's cheap or because it makes you feel better. 

I personally had not reached my desired position with respect to oil shares, so for me, it made sense to buy/average down.


----------



## Homerhomer

There is nothing wrong with averaging down as long as one continues to like the stock and the fundamentals have not deteriorated.

If the stock selection was a mistake then averaging down is not the best approach, but if company continues to deliver and has great potential going forward there is nothing wrong with buying it cheaper then the initial purchase price.

There are many ways of making it work.


----------



## Toronto.gal

You won't convince andrewf because he's always right.


----------



## Mockingbird

Unfortunately, many buy stocks (with or without much research) and will end up falling in love them. Happens all the time and many will get caught, with varying degrees, throughout their investing/trading career. The common impulse is to sell winners and to subsidize losers without much thought. Diversification will minimize this risk.

MB


----------



## Cal

Yeah, sometimes it isn't really averaging down, it is more like buying more of a stock that you feel is a good buy at a better price than what you already picked it up for.


----------



## Causalien

Stop loss at 5%, never become a bag holder again, or having this debate.


----------



## JimmyAAA

andrewf said:


> 'Averaging down' seems to be trying to deny the fundamental concept of a sunk cost. It might help to make you feel better about your losses, but I don't think it is a very good investing strategy.


I bought 100 Telefonica ADR at 24.22 in July. I like their story and the fat Divie (I am aware of the Spanish tax consequences). It sunk like a stone. I still liked their story and fat Divie at 18, so I bought a 100 more shares.

Long story short I am now slightly up (3%) on my investment and a dividend cheque in the mail next month. I could have been slightly down, without averaging down.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Causalien said:


> Stop loss at 5%


5% ? Really?
These days you must be getting stopped a lot...like every alternate day


----------



## Mockingbird

@HaroldCrump: It is just one type of risk management. Expectancy of a system will ultimately dictate the profitability factor - *not* stop outs.

@JimmyAAA: Glad it worked out for you. But for every happy story, I'm sure I could come up a dozen or more unfortunate ones. People tend to talk about the happy endings.

MB


----------



## Belguy

Some 30 day ETF and managed fund returns as of today:

Claymore Global Mining: +15.81%
Claymore Oil Sands Sector: +17.59%
Claymore Global Agriculture: +13.86%
Claymore BRIC: +13.25%
CIBC Energy: +14.66%
BMO S&P/TSX EW Global Base Metals: +23.34%!!!!
iShares Russell 2000: +15.42%
iShares Brazil: +15.60%
iShares China: +13.05%
RBC Global Resources: +13.94%

We're in the money!!!


----------



## ddkay




----------



## andrewf

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. Investing rules aren't carved in stone like that, it depends on the stock, the reason for it sinking, your goals, your risk tolerance, your intended position etc. Needless to say, averaging down should not be done every time a stock goes down. If one has 30 stocks and 50% go down, you obviously would not average down 1/2 of them or 1/4 even.
> 
> 2. It's about smart investing and not simply about buying a stock because it's cheap or because it makes you feel better.
> 
> I personally had not reached my desired position with respect to oil shares, so for me, it made sense to buy/average down.


Not sure you understood what I meant by sunk cost. 'Averaging down', to me, means you are buying the stock precisely because you already own it at a higher price, and you're trying to 'rescue' the position by lowering the average cost. This isn't all that rational, because the price you paid for your position is immaterial (other than for capital gains taxation). Your decision to buy at today's price should not be influenced by what you paid yesterday--that is a sunk cost, and cannot be recovered by any action you take today.


----------



## andrewf

Toronto.gal said:


> You won't convince andrewf because he's always right.


I'm not sure I'm disagreeing with him. But buying a stock because you like it is not averaging down. Averaging down is often an excuse to allocate too much money to a losing stock, like averaging Nortel down to zero. Many people did that, thinking mistakenly that they could undo their losses by buying more. It doesn't work that way. It's why I hate the expression 'averaging down'.


----------



## ddkay

USD analysis: The rally stopped at two long-term resistance points and the recent sell-off stopped at two support points (centre of M and on 2011 trendline). If this M pattern (double top) is valid, the US dollar will be next to worthless, zero hedge and The Economic Collapse blog wins, everyone else loses.

An island reversal is still in the cards IMO, so the dollar breaks out again and continues rising into the New Year.









Gold: Not much to say here. Unquestionably parabolic rise, maybe blow-off top of the century in the making... Still in the long-term rising channel for now. The last two center peaks of the cycle indicator showed bottoms and extremely strong sentiment change to the upside, mark March 2012 on your calendars, could be something big


----------



## ddkay

"It appears that investors are flocking to Groupon’s forthcoming initial public offering like customers to one of the daily deal giant’s coupons.

The company is considering raising the price of its shares above its current expected range of $16 to $18 a share, people briefed on the matter told DealBook on Friday. That would value the online coupon pioneer at potentially more than $12 billion.

The company’s executives and bankers, led by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, have completed the first week of a multistate road show. The presentation team has been pitching institutional investors about the three-year-old start-up’s business prospects, describing them as primed for enormous growth."

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/28/groupon-weighs-raising-its-i-p-o-price/

What's wrong with people?


----------



## Argonaut

Groupon is only offering about 5% of shares in the IPO, creating artificial demand. Pump and dump. Can't wait to trade that one into the ground. They deserve it for not following the age-old advice of Steve Miller to take Google's money and run.

ddkay you need an avatar again. I suggest this one, last bear standing:


----------



## ddkay

Tons of recent IPOs were structured the same way... LinkedIn, Pandora, Zipcar

None of them have really crashed yet, just slow decline for the most part, and the price swings on the first day are ridiculous

I can't see any distinguishable trend on LinkedIn, but there seems to be a symmetrical triangle pattern forming, could breakout in either direction, expires around the beginning of Feb


----------



## avrex

ddkay has selected the Giant Panda.

Time to buy Chinese stocks.


----------



## ddkay

Motivation... http://vimeo.com/9881971


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> USD analysis: The rally stopped at two long-term resistance points and the recent sell-off stopped at two support points (centre of M and on 2011 trendline). If this M pattern (double top) is valid, the US dollar will be next to worthless, zero hedge and The Economic Collapse blog wins, everyone else loses.
> 
> An island reversal is still in the cards IMO, so the dollar breaks out again and continues rising into the New Year.


Read it several times, didn't understand anything 
ddkay, what is your prediction?


----------



## avrex

Interesting. 
I'll watch that full 1987 PBS documentary about Paul Tudor Jones that you posted above, tomorrow.


----------



## ddkay

I think long term this is going to play out for equities. There is "strong support" at SPX 1257 (61.8% retracement)

The consolidation/flat period today is a sign of rally exhaustion, I think short term there's a chance to go a bit higher to form a better top, but we're already extremely overbought so it might take a few days

Reading around the 'net, lots of bears have thrown in the towel... I guess they don't want to miss the next 20pc rally, but really.. if anyone actually bothered to read the EU summit statement they'd see that right now it's just a framework of ideas. Every entrepreneur needs a business plan, okay, so Europe has a business plan, now they need to attract investors. What happens if they don't find enough investors, or one of their critical business partners change their mind? The whole thing falls apart.

Nothing is fixed and nothing is different. If the market was just going end up ignoring all headlines out of EU, deteriorating economic data, why didn't we rally in August? Earnings were great then too. There was corporate balance sheet "cash on the sidelines" then too. Why did we even crash to begin with? The support/resistance levels, moving averages were nothing but reference points in the melt-down, and they were nothing but reference points in this melt-up. Usually they stop around those levels to consolidate and decide direction... Most of the critical spots got gapped over during night time futures, while you were sleeping. This market has been acting pretty suspicious.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> for a non-guaranteed and *small chance outcome *with initially only a 6-12 month timeframe.
> 
> 
> *In the case of Suncor, why would I ACB* into a company highly subject to geopolitical risk (Cpt. Hindsight to the rescue)? I went thru my trade confirmations, I actually bought it right at the start of the Libyan civil war (February 18, 2011), and I did take a loss because I automatically got stopped out during the Japan quake, but just a 2% loss, not 25% had I held and hoped all the monsters would go away.
> 
> massive value trap like *Eastman Kodak.*


Suncor in the $20's was not a small chance outcome and it is nothing like Eastman Kodak.

You don't know the market.

And if you wouldn't buy Suncor at $30, you still don't know the market.

Many people on CMF, including myself, bought Suncor recently. Why didn't you? 

It is more likely that if people are buying and you're not, that you're the one making the mistake, no?



andrewf said:


> 'Averaging down' seems to be trying to deny the fundamental concept of a sunk cost. It might help to make you feel better about your losses, but I don't think it is a very good investing strategy.


Averaging down is a very good strategy, it just needs to be used appropriately and it is not applicable in all situations.



Toronto.gal said:


> You won't convince andrewf because he's always right.


I actually laughed out loud at this. 



HaroldCrump said:


> 5% ? Really?
> These days you must be getting stopped a lot...like every alternate day


This, too.


----------



## Homerhomer

Argonaut said:


> I suggest this one, last bear standing:


Very sad image.


----------



## ddkay

First of all, Suncor has never recovered to its '08 highs. That is an enormous value trap for anyone that bought then. 74% loss on principal at the '09 bottom, and 53% loss on principal today.










The price of oil is a significant factor in limiting global growth, it's effectively a bet AGAINST the economy. Your logic is flawed if you think you're betting on a recovery.

Secondly:









Why are prices spiking at the same time _more supply_ is coming onto market? If supply is shown to be growing steadily and consistently, why are prices not reflecting that? Peak oil doesn't happen until world oil supply actually starts dwindling, and so far I don't see that...

OPEC engineer the price, traders hoard tankers in times of tight production (revolutions/civil wars that partly begin because of high commodity prices/unaffordable costs of living) and the economy has so far been consistently thrown off the rails every time price rises uncontrollably... Is that a GOOD investment? In my opinion, right now, no, because in the near future, you can get it cheaper.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> he took an *enormously expensive risk* (10%+) for a *non-guaranteed* and *small chance outcome* with initially *only a 6-12 month timeframe*.


- enormously expensive risk = cost me 9.99$ to buy !
- non-guaranteed = the only thing guaranteed are GIC and gov bonds
- small chance outcome = Are we talking about purchasing a major energy stock at ~PE8, near the bottom of a market panic ?
- only a 6-12 month timeframe = reading your posts, i was under the impression that your timeframe was even shorter (2-3 days)

I don't believe we are in the same market you and me


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> It's in the realm of possibility that the tried & tested methods that worked for your generation of investing will not work for mine. People change, behaviours change, the world changes.


This time is not different, compounding interest is the best way to get rich (in the long term!)

Your quote reminded me of what youngsters were saying to older investors in the 1999 tech euphoria.


----------



## ddkay

My trading timeframe had been/is still a few days, in a .99 correlated market it's better to avoid company specific risk and stick with economic breadth indicators like the market index, in my view this recent rally is not supportive of a long term recovery, explosive growth and renewed investment opportunity.

If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I am at least giving better reasons to support my investment decisions than historical P/E data. Suncor's P/E for the last 3 months won't be updated until the next quarterly report on Nov 3rd.

This is a market forecasts thread, no one can say they "definitely" know the future. It's about making educated guesses. Fundamental analysis uses forward P/E, and that too can be unreliable because it assumes a certain set of conditions are in place for targets to be met.


----------



## larry81

How much time have you been trading ddkay, you mention in a previous post that you are kind of new to this.

If your strategy work for you man, i am happy


----------



## ddkay

13 months


----------



## ddkay

That's the other thing, there is no single strategy that will work for everyone 100% of the time. Let people do their own thing. This whole argument started because I was singled out for not dumping all my cash in the market. Suddenly because we had a bounce up, which may be insignificant in the longer-term, one side is superior...

I am up 23% YTD, most of that came from the beginning of this year before things fell apart. My account is above water, and I've kept it above water by believing in capital preservation (cash) and minimizing risk by timing entry/exit points largely on macro conditions/economic health. That's what counts.


----------



## Causalien

LOl.

I felt like a villain back in may when I said I am going to sell in May and go away. I think how you said it and the relative inexperience you have compared to the rest is the reason for the hate. 

You made money, that's good. You'll get exactly what you want out of the stock market. Whether it is to feel adored by a other people by appearing as a genius or to actually make money.


----------



## Belguy

Over and over again, I have read that trying to time the markets is a mug's game and that what counts is not trying to time the markets but time IN the markets.

Despite all that my time at investing has taught me, there still appears to be many who do feel that they can be successful market timers.

I wish them well.

However, the most time-tested, winning strategy is based on diversification and long-term asset allocation. Focus on your goals and try to ignore recent performance.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> Over and over again, I have read that trying to time the markets is a mug's game and that what counts is not trying to time the markets but time IN the markets.
> 
> Despite all that my time at investing has taught me, there still appears to be many who do feel that they can be successful market timers.
> 
> I wish them well.
> 
> However, the most time-tested, winning strategy is based on diversification and long-term asset allocation. Focus on your goals and try to ignore recent performance.


Belguy Have finally downsized your equities allocation ?!


----------



## Belguy

Report back to us in twenty years and let us know how it went!!


----------



## humble_pie

guys do ya'll remember that picture in the original lewis carroll edition of alice in wonderland which shows alice at the tea table with the Red Queen & the Dormouse & the Dodo & a few other cuckoo fictitious creatures.

they are having this typical red queen conversation - wacky & crazy & clever - but the dormouse keeps pipping in with non-sequitur one-liners.

finally they stuff him in the teapot & try to put the lid on, there's a great drawing of this which i'll try to find & post.


----------



## ddkay

I am Belguys anti-thesis, I believe you don't always have to be in the market to make money. You only have to be in at the right times.

re: underperformance

I could have made over 9000% return but I only made 1/400th of that. Who cares? At night I sleep like a baby

I've watched people program relative value systems for HFs that are direction neutral and exposed to very little risk, turn a $250,000 account into $4.3M with a 164.21% time weighted return and have only occasional givebacks (95% winning trades). In fact it was one of the few systems that made astronomical returns from the May 2010 flash crash (black swan, only to us).

There is no one method to making money in the market. If buy and hold forever was the only strategy, no one would sell their shares because they're too valuable! and when it came time to sell, no bids.


----------



## ddkay

http://www.curatedalpha.com/2011/excerpt-from-liars-poker/



> The following is an excerpt from Liar’s Poker by Michael Lewis. Liar’s Poker is a semi-autobiographic novel of Michael Lewis while working as a bond salesman at Solomon Brother’s during the 1980s.
> 
> Interestingly, Michael Lewis never intended for Liar’s Poker to contain any techniques or knowledge applicable to investing or trading. The key takeaways are:
> 
> 1) The market tends to overreact to significant events, and it pays to be a contrarian.
> 2) Analyze and act on secondary and tertiary effects to significant events quickly before the market becomes aware of them.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> I've watched people program relative value systems for HFs that are direction neutral and exposed to very little risk, turn a $250,000 account into $4.3M with a 164.21% time weighted return and have only occasional givebacks (95% winning trades). In fact it was one of the few systems that made astronomical returns from the May 2010 flash crash (black swan, only to us).


Nah you didnt, it was just a wet dream !


----------



## ddkay

omg lag aimbot hacker


----------



## ddkay

Some probabilities can be derived from this


----------



## hboy43

ddkay said:


> That's the other thing, there is no single strategy that will work for everyone 100% of the time. Let people do their own thing. This whole argument started because I was singled out for not dumping all my cash in the market. Suddenly because we had a bounce up, which may be insignificant in the longer-term, one side is superior...
> 
> I am up 23% YTD, most of that came from the beginning of this year before things fell apart. My account is above water, and I've kept it above water by believing in capital preservation (cash) and minimizing risk by timing entry/exit points largely on macro conditions/economic health. That's what counts.


Hey, it wasn't my intent to start a dump on ddkay thing here. I hope you aren't referring to what I said. 

About once a year, I tell my story. You where just the most recent catalyst. I will never know who gets a glimmer of an idea how to move forward based upon my life experience. Certainly everything I have done in life has not been fantastic. Indeed, my life (on a bad day) could be a cautionary tale on how not to live life. However the one thing I do really well is accumulating money without high paying work, or major intelligence - that is almost anyone can do it. Not so much from the investing angle, but have certainly gotten better with age, more to the spending and value judgement end of things.

So, yes, do your own thing.

I don't know what percentage I am up, but dollar wise has to be high 6 figures lifetime (~ 30 years as an adult). I am down $150,000 from most recent peak a year or so back, so percentage wise and absolute dollar wise, you win the most recent skirmish. Just remember that one won battle is not the war.

However, why is Canadian dollars the unit of measure? Tradition and easy come to mind. However, I look at investments more abstractly. If I value my holdings in SU shares, then my net worth a year ago was something like 34400SU wheras today it is something like 42700SU, so I am up 25% on the year using this metric. Or go more abstract yet. How many barrels of oil, acres of land, patents, buildings and equipment etc. do the abstractions called shares hold on my behalf now compared to a year ago? As I own 700 more SU, 4700 more BBD.B, 2600 more NBD, and 500 more RUS than a year ago, chances are good that I own more of the physical objects on the planet than I did a year ago. In the long run, why should I care that the arbitrary measure called Canadian dollars says I am down 10% when I can find an unlimited number of other arbitrary measures that say I am up.

Anyhow, the immediately above thoughts have been brought up before and nobody has ever commented. They must be too wacky I guess. Or are they? Remember, I am the one sitting at home retired at 39 for a decade while others my age still toil at the salt mine.

Also, consider your time you are putting into this. Your 23% had better translate into $50/hour or you would be better off working on your house or getting a master's degree something. I don't put any serious time into investing any more, maybe a handful of hours a year. Most is just goofing off time like I am doing now. I don't often read annual reports or calculate financial ratios. They don't add any value proportional with the effort, so I don't do much of these activities.

Hopefully your techniques will do you as well as my record over a 30 year period when you are my age. 

All the best.

hboy43


----------



## Homerhomer

hboy43, your story is inspirational, anyone who thinks investing is complicated should read your postings, the thruth is it is only complicated if you make it this way.

ddkay, I also felt some posts towards you were bit unjust, validity of the arguments aside as your investment path progresses you will see that your investment strategy evolves, and there is plenty of wisdom in what has been said by some other members.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> First of all, Suncor has never recovered to its '08 highs. That is an enormous value trap for anyone that bought then. 74% loss on principal at the '09 bottom, and 53% loss on principal today.


Understood. But many stocks have not recovered from their previous peaks, not just SU. And as you have quoted somebody else (http://www.curatedalpha.com/2011/excerpt-from-liars-poker/), the market tends to over react to certain events, like it did with SU.

I just don't think you can justify not buying in the $20's because it didn't return to $70 after the market crash of 08-09.



ddkay said:


> I am Belguys anti-thesis, I believe you don't always have to be in the market to make money. You only have to be in at the right times.


This is true.


----------



## ddkay

Once bitten, twice shy.

Of course any trade where you make money is a good thing. Buy at $20s sell at $30s, great, that's profit. But that's profit on a single, separate transaction. If you can avoid meteoric losses to start, with some simple controls in place, IMO you end up doing much better in the long run. It makes no sense to me to chase something while it's still falling or on the edge of a cliff (unless I'm shorting (at that time we had falsely broke down through a very low end of the range and made newer lows than everyone was accustomed to)). I didn't know, and the market obviously didn't know, Europe still had the fire power to completely nationalize Dexia, and consequently, rumours and empty promises would fuel another rally up. So far as the quote I used, it's really the 2nd point that's more relevant to the current situation.



> 2) Analyze and act on secondary and tertiary effects to significant events quickly before the market becomes aware of them.


----------



## Argonaut

ddkay, if you figure out how to make $50/hour by smashing indexes and beating all hedge funds, let me know.


----------



## ddkay

If there's one thing you can learn from the financial industry and significant gains, it's other people's money. Always. 23% on a few million does a lot more than 23% on my tiny account. Eventually you get to a point where size limits what you can do. That's not now though...


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay, forget the whole Suncor ordeal. People choose different paths.

Do you always do so much technical analysis?

I mean, I see your charts and they are informative and interesting to look at. I always read your commentary, as well.

However, I never do much analysis of any kind. I base most of my decisions on common sense and price action.

I know how to use tech analysis, such as MA's, MACD, RSI, BB's and all the rest of it - but I never use it.

Do you place a lot of weight on technical analysis? I'm not sure if it means much to me. I go by price action, world events and company earnings.

Price action is about as close as I get to technical analysis. I guess I like RSI sometimes.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> If there's one thing you can learn from the financial industry and significant gains, it's other people's money. Always. 23% on a few million does a lot more than 23% on my tiny account. Eventually you get to a point where size limits what you can do. That's not now though...


when you factor your YTD gain/loss, do you consider cost of trading?


----------



## larry81

hboy43 said:


> If I value my holdings in SU shares, then my net worth a year ago was something like 34400SU wheras today it is something like 42700SU, so I am up 25% on the year using this metric.


You know its time to sell your big position when others people start using SU as a metric to express their net worth, lol !


----------



## ddkay

@KaeJS reading the news to me == fundamental analysis. That's MUCH more important to me than technical analysis (which is why I didn't place any bets or weight on the rally), but I like to use it as a reference point.

@larry81 I do, and in the case of the arbitrage algo I referred to earlier, the account paid $20,000 in commissions. Cost of doing business, just like taxes.


----------



## Causalien

The problem with DCA is that you might miss out on something else that has a bigger potential for a rebound in the same sector. Take Nortel and RIMM at the height of the tech collapse. 

In any case, there's a lot of things that weren't being said by both sides of the arguments. Things like, the other factors that went into DCA investors who decided to DCA on a particular stock and not just letting it die off. Or what made the DCA investor decided to go into any particular stock. 

I do both DCA for investment and I also have strategies that uses stop losses to trade. (Thank god for computers to manage it for me). My reason for being in the investment scene is to understand it all. So I will do everything. And, I will stress this, each strategy is most efficient during certain conditions. Some people's temperament are especially suitable for certain strategies because their senses are attuned to certain conditions. Either because of where they live or how they grew up. 

Take the skirt length metric for example. You cannot use skirt length to judge economic condition if you live in the country side. Same for commodity trading. A trader is at a disadvantage for wheat prices if you are in a metropolitan area. 

So stop the hate already.


----------



## marina628

I DCA for about 60% of our investments but i also buy a mix of Dividend stocks and mutual funds through the year.January is usually when we will buy Our individual stocks to max our TFSA and I will usually only buy 1-2 stocks a month after that in non registered accounts.I have only 14 stocks in my entire portfolio but very solid companies like ENB and FTS(held this one the longest) 
I bought few shares of AAPL for $408 which is so unlike me ,hope the xmas sales will make me some money ,bought two ipod touch 64 gb yesterday lol


----------



## KaeJS

marina628 said:


> I bought few shares of AAPL for $408 which is so unlike me ,hope the xmas sales will make me some money ,bought two ipod touch 64 gb yesterday lol


I wouldn't worry about AAPL picking up earnings for their next quarter.


----------



## jcgd

KaeJS said:


> I wouldn't worry about AAPL picking up earnings for their next quarter.


Apple just had their second best quarter since 2002 I believe. Apple has always seemed cheap to me. The company does fantastic, yet remains cheap. I wonder why?


----------



## ddkay

Sunday night reading on reshoring from the FT



> October 30, 2011 7:54 pm
> Reshoring' jobs from China won't happen
> Tim Leunig
> 
> Reshoring is the economic idea of the moment. The idea is simple. The costs saved by
> manufacturing goods in China will disappear as Chinese wages rise, leading manufacturing
> jobs to “reshore” themselves back home to the west. A rise in the renminbi would
> accelerate this process.
> 
> This would be a dream for Barack Obama, a politician from America's industrial heartland.
> So too for David Cameron and Nick Clegg in the UK, eager to prove that we are all in it
> together. Manufacturing jobs have traditionally paid well and offered good careers to men
> who did not excel at school. This group has been hard hit by the past 25 years of economic
> change. It is no surprise politicians love manufacturing jobs.
> 
> But reshoring will not happen. For a start, wages will not rise quickly in China, where 34m
> urban factory workers are paid an average of $2 an hour. A further 65m factory workers
> in town and village enterprises average just 64 cents. They would be delighted to work for
> $2. And 675m people are employed elsewhere in China, mainly in agriculture and at lower
> wages. Chinese wages will rise, but the potential supply of low-cost Chinese labour remains
> elastic.
> 
> If China runs out of workers willing to work for $2, low-cost producers will leave China.
> They will not, however, return to high-wage economies. Instead they will move to India,
> Bangladesh and ultimately Africa. This is history repeating itself. At the start of the 20th
> century Britain lost its textile industry to Japan. As wages rose, those jobs left Japan, but
> they did not return to Britain. They went first to Hong Kong, then to Korea, and now to
> China. Simple products will never be produced in developed countries in any quantity
> again.
> 
> Electronics is different. Here Chinese wages are well above $2, because producers want to
> attract the best and most reliable workers. These companies follow Henry Ford's strategy
> of a century ago. He paid workers on the Model-T assembly lines $5 a day – double the
> prevailing wage. He needed reliable workers, willing to work relentlessly without
> complaining. High labour productivity allowed Ford to offer high hourly wages and achieve
> low unit costs. High wages at Ford then, and in Chinese electronic companies today, are a
> symbol of competitive success, not competitive failure.
> 
> The nexus between productivity, wages and competitiveness is critical. Chinese wages can
> rise without becoming uncompetitive so long as Chinese productivity keeps pace with
> wages. This has happened in the last 20 years, with productivity rising by 10 per cent a
> year on average. China is as competitive as it has ever been.
> 
> That said, Chinese labour productivity is still very low by western standards. World Bank
> figures show that the average American industrial worker produces as much as 12 Chinese
> industrial workers. This means that even were reshoring to happen, it would not be a one
> for-one job exchange. America would gain only one job for every eight that China loses,
> even taking into account the many low productivity Chinese companies producing for the
> domestic market. American workers are simply that effective.
> 
> The Chinese electronics sector currently employs 3m people. If the US won back a 10th of
> Chinese output, China would lose 300,000 jobs, but the US would gain fewer than 40,000
> new jobs. America would not even notice: even if it won every single piece of
> manufacturing output from China's towns and cities, unemployment would fall by just 2.75
> percentage points.
> 
> Western manufacturing plants produce large amounts of output and contribute hugely to
> the balance of payments. But productivity is so high that they sustain very few jobs.
> Anyone who has visited a modern factory will be struck by the high output and relatively
> few workers. Productivity is high and still rising faster than in the service sector.
> 
> This means that manufacturing employment will continue to fall, in Britain, the US and
> even in China, where it has already fallen by more than a fifth since 1996. Output has risen
> in all three countries, but productivity has risen faster, so that employment has fallen.
> There is no reason to think the next decade will be any different. Rapid productivity
> growth in manufacturing means that all countries must ensure that their economies
> deliver enough service sector jobs to return society to full employment.
> 
> The writer is an economic historian at the London School of Economics


----------



## KaeJS

jcgd said:


> Apple just had their second best quarter since 2002 I believe. Apple has always seemed cheap to me. The company does fantastic, yet remains cheap. I wonder why?


My personal opinion (whether or not it holds any weight is for you to decide) but I think the reason AAPL stays relatively cheap compared to its earnings is because of GOOG and AAPL already "high" price to most retail investors.

Plus, its tech. I think a lot of people just don't want to be caught at the top when it comes crashing down lol.


----------



## jcgd

KaeJS said:


> My personal opinion (whether or not it holds any weight is for you to decide) but I think the reason AAPL stays relatively cheap compared to its earnings is because of GOOG and AAPL already "high" price to most retail investors.
> 
> Plus, its tech. I think a lot of people just don't want to be caught at the top when it comes crashing down lol.


"High" price being that it's $400, not $40 with the same cap? I never understood that, along with stock splits. I don't care if I get 1 share at $1000 or 10 at $100, you still get the same amount of company.

It being a tech is scary, but it's also retail. And they do have pretty amazing products. It's hard to deny when everyone you know has at least one product. But when you think of Apple, with innovative, nearly consumable products (everyone gets a new phone every three years) and something like Netflix, you have to wonder why people will risk it with Netflix but not Apple. For example, those that were willing to risk it on Netflix learned the hard way a few weeks ago.


----------



## donald

Ddkay...maybe the chinese will be imported to america.I was watching a interview with haliburtons ceo,they can not find skilled labour he was saying a entry level field worker had upward mobility to make 125k a yr...but there is nobody willing to do the work...same story with caterpillar they cant find "service'' men either.

Most industries are "dying" for a work force that cant be found anymore and there throwing 100k salaries to entice....Pisses me off when you see a young 30s male on tv or cnn complianing he was downsized, there is opportunity.

Americans just dont want to work and chinas going to go the same way,its funny because these are the type of "jobs"' that america was built on to become the powerhouse they are or should i say were.


----------



## Belguy

I have just finished looking at how my buy-and hold, primarily 'Couch Potato' portfolio of mainly ETF's has performed since January 1, 2007.

Over those 58 months, I am up 27.87% in total or 5.76% annualized.

This period has encompassed the 'Great Recession' and so, I am asking you this:

Should I be happy with this result?

It just seems to me that I have had to take a pretty volatile rollercoaster ride to end up with this result and I wouldn't have done all that much worse by just holding a ladder of GIC's for that period or a single five year GIC with a lot less pain and suffering!!

What say you?


----------



## KaeJS

jcgd said:


> "High" price being that it's $400, not $40 with the same cap? I never understood that, along with stock splits. I don't care if I get 1 share at $1000 or 10 at $100, you still get the same amount of company.


I don't understand it either. But, it matters to some people.



Belguy said:


> Should I be happy with this result?


Well, it's not bad. Almost 6%.


----------



## ddkay

http://www.channel4.com/news/sloth-inducing-labour-laws-to-blame-for-eurozone-crisis



> *Jin Liqun, chairman of the country’s vast sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation, said people in the West needed to ‘work a bit harder’ if they wanted to escape the recession.* // (Pretty sure this means, NO bailout for yEU!)
> 
> In a tough message to EU leaders Mr Jin said Westerners were cossetted by the welfare state.
> 
> He said the debt crisis crippling Europe could be solved in the long term only by slashing welfare payments and ending the restrictive labour laws which have made European workers increasingly uncompetitive on world markets.
> 
> Mr Jin told Channel Four News: ‘The root cause of trouble is the overburdened welfare system, built up since the Second World War in Europe – the sloth- inducing, indolence-inducing labour laws.


----------



## gibor365

9pm All futures are down about .5%, oil is flat, gold slightly down...What should we expect tomorrow? Didn't heard any big news....


----------



## ddkay

Dollar going nuts on Japanese currency intervention


----------



## fatcat

> I was watching a interview with haliburtons ceo,they can not find skilled labour he was saying a entry level field worker had upward mobility to make 125k a yr...but there is nobody willing to do the work ...


 that strikes me as absolute crap ... most ceo's just plain lie, they talk their book, they set up for bringing in foreign workers who will work for less .... nobody willing to work in a job with an salary potential of 125K ? .... in the united states ? ... hold a job fair and say how many actual positions are really open and you have to bring in the army just to police all the applicants in line ... there would be thousands



> October 30, 2011 7:54 pm
> Reshoring' jobs from China won't happen
> Tim Leunig


dd, the thing missing in the argument is oil ... if the peak oil guys are right or if oil goes up to say $150 .. the value equation for shipping things from china really starts to change


----------



## Argonaut

Long USD-JPY was a smart play. Rise in Yen reminded me of the Swiss franc. Should have jumped on that but I have a bit of market fatigue.


----------



## Homerhomer

fatcat said:


> dd, the thing missing in the argument is oil ... if the peak oil guys are right or if oil goes up to say $150 .. the value equation for shipping things from china really starts to change


IMO not even close to tipping the scale, it would still be much cheaper to import, plus production capacity is pretty much non existent in the USA, not that easy to bring it back after decades of shutting down plants and shipping production to Asia. 

Labour costs increase in Asia will do the trick (and no increase is USA), but that's at least few decades away from happening.


----------



## ddkay

The economy will collapse and the world will burn before oil stays at $150 for any extended period of time.

The input costs of everything rise.

I was turned pretty anti-nuclear after Fukushima, but Gen IV reactors are really our best chance at long term survival. They can be built in small scales and thorium fuel is multitudes more abundant, longer lasting and less radioactive (13.3b years longer half life) than U-235. Of course this is going to kill the dinosaur business models of the Cameco's and Areva's, the Haliburtons and Exxon Mobil's.

We're probably 10 years away from seeing industrial scale plants being economically viable. The absolute most important step is educating people about radiation (right now the media is only good at scaring us), and better regulation.


----------



## ddkay

Looks like this JPY intervention will be useless in a couple of minutes


----------



## ddkay

If ES_F breaks support at 1274, the new range is between fib 78.6% (1274) and 61.8% (1261)


----------



## Jungle

Are the banks and teacher's pension fund (Maple Group) buying TMX today?>
Is that a good thing for the banks to own the TMX? 
Is that a conflict of interest?


----------



## hboy43

Belguy said:


> since January 1, 2007.
> 
> Over those 58 months, I am up 27.87% in total or 5.76% annualized.
> 
> Should I be happy with this result?


Better than I have done. I extimate we are up 18% in that time frame if I assume we saved from employment $100,000 of the net worth increase.

Compare yourself to all the people who sold in panic at the bottom and are showing -20 or -30% for the period.

hboy43


----------



## hboy43

fatcat said:


> thdd, the thing missing in the argument is oil ... if the peak oil guys are right or if oil goes up to say $150 .. the value equation for shipping things from china really starts to change


I doubt it. I figure the bigger piece in the shipping equation is the trucking in North America once the goods land in a ship. 

Think about it, from an energy point of view, a large ship in the most energy economical form of locomotion, even bettering the bicycle I once read. Then consider that a huge ship of what, a few thousand containers, has a crew of say 20, 50 people.

We always hear how oil prices are going to kill shipping, but I have my doubts. 

Could be way off base, anyone have any better thoughts?

hboy43


----------



## Dibs

Belguy said:


> I have just finished looking at how my buy-and hold, primarily 'Couch Potato' portfolio of mainly ETF's has performed since January 1, 2007.
> 
> Over those 58 months, I am up 27.87% in total or 5.76% annualized.
> [...]
> 
> It just seems to me that I have had to take a pretty volatile rollercoaster ride to end up with this result and I wouldn't have done all that much worse by just holding a ladder of GIC's for that period or a single five year GIC with a lot less pain and suffering!!
> 
> What say you?


I think you have done fine, especially since we have gone through two significant downturns. There is risk in playing the stock market, but there is also risk in getting GICs. How would you have felt if you were stuck in GICs while the stock market enjoyed a nice bull run?

Also please tell me, where do you have access to 5.76% annualized GICs?


----------



## R.O.V.

hboy43 said:


> I doubt it. I figure the bigger piece in the shipping equation is the trucking in North America once the goods land in a ship.
> 
> Think about it, from an energy point of view, a large ship in the most energy economical form of locomotion, even bettering the bicycle I once read. Then consider that a huge ship of what, a few thousand containers, has a crew of say 20, 50 people.
> 
> We always hear how oil prices are going to kill shipping, but I have my doubts.
> 
> Could be way off base, anyone have any better thoughts?
> 
> hboy43


I did an 'Economics of Shipping' course a few years back as a part of undergrad requirement. No doubt the economies of scale achieved by todays ships are tremendous. Another interesting point is the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) which is considered by many economists as a leading indicator of global economic activity because it measure the supply and demand of cargo ships used to carry bulk goods i.e. iron ore etc. which are the raw materials needed to produced finished goods. 

Fairplay magazine is a good place to check BDI


----------



## ddkay

Bloomberg tracks BDI too, but there isn't much correlation with the market http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND


----------



## ddkay




----------



## ddkay

"MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York Monday morning after an effort to sell itself to Interactive Brokers Group (BKR) failed."

If MF is collapsing, I wonder who else are on the verge... one thing all fin institutions have in common is that they're net long asset price inflation and short currency. Continued volatility and exuberant directional bets can wipe more out.


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> Over those 58 months, I am up 27.87% in total or 5.76% annualized.
> ...
> What say you?


I say you need to figure out how to annualize your returns!

But you still made slightly over 5%. So I would say you were lucky! But you have stewed and fumed far more than it was worth. At least if your posts here are any indication of your real feelings.

Like others have said repeatedly, get out while you still can! Buy a Canadian bank stock and clip your coupons.


----------



## hboy43

kcowan said:


> I say you need to figure out how to annualize your returns!


Nice catch kcowan! My numeric spidy senses are usually pretty good, but I missed this.

hboy43


----------



## ddkay

You were able to get 4.50% 5yr GICs in 2008 from ING, I haven't googled others historical rates but I assume there must have been some others closer to 5% around that time too

http://www.ingdirect.ca/en/accounts-rates/historicalencadgic.jsp


----------



## Jungle

Geeze S&P down 20 points now? Like really is that bad?


----------



## Belguy

Incredible volatility over the past almost five years to gain what--approximately an extra one percent for buying and holding a diversified portfolio of ETF's versus just purchasing a five year GIC at the time.

We grow too soon olde and too late schmart!!

Nobody knows what the next five years will bring but, if history is any indication, I'm not looking to get rich any time soon!!


----------



## ddkay

The ship has left the island


----------



## Jungle

I just wanted a positive day so we can tally our net worth


----------



## Homerhomer

Belguy said:


> Incredible volatility over the past almost five years to gain what--approximately an extra one percent for buying and holding a diversified portfolio of ETF's versus just purchasing a five year GIC at the time.
> 
> We grow too soon olde and too late schmart!!
> 
> Nobody knows what the next five years will bring but, if history is any indication, I'm not looking to get rich any time soon!!


Your are the one to blame for not making as much money as you would like to, however you are stubborn and prefer to ***** and moan instead of facing reality and doing anything about it.


----------



## ddkay

Nosedive on the close


----------



## Jungle

ddkay let that panda bear out in his avatar just before close. 

What happened today??? Good-bye to Thursday's nice gains!


----------



## peterboro31

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2011/10/31/Budget-chicanery-could-tempt-US-deficit-panel.aspx


As Belguy would say: eek


----------



## ddkay

It all happened after 3pm (rumour hour aka power hour). Those are margin call liquidations, especially powerful in the last 15 minutes.


----------



## Mockingbird

ddkay said:


>


In order for an island top to be formed, the price needs to gap up completely above the previous candlestick and needs to gap back down. Above is not a proper island gap and even if it is, you still need the gap down to make the formation. The island tops and bottoms are pretty rare, but the odds are great for the short term reversal. FYI: ~80% success rate.

My 2c.
MB


----------



## Toronto.gal

ddkay said:


> especially powerful in the last 15 minutes.


You're right! I saw how a couple of stocks went downhill in just the last 5 minutes. 

But anyway, as Belguy would say, don't worry, just:










Markets are now closed, so forget about it and just enjoy a Cool as a Cucumber Spooky drink.

Cheers!


----------



## Jungle

I see your eyes popped out of your head too watching the markets do that. But mine didn't land in my drink 

Hey Belguy let's go mope about the markets  You buy drinks what all that retirement savings you have


----------



## Mockingbird

ddkay said:


> It all happened after 3pm (rumour hour aka power hour). Those are margin call liquidations, especially powerful in the last 15 minutes.


The main reason for the 3pm move is the close of the bond futures market (open outcry) where the equity market becomes "off leash".

And the closing 15min move is due to the order imbalance and MOC orders. The most margin requirement gets calculated after the end of trading day, not before. FYI: Some markets already reduced their margin requirements in mid-October.

MB

PS: Happy Halloween!


----------



## ddkay

I guess there were better charts to look at for a clean / "proper" island pattern, with larger gaps

TLT is showing the inverse










Good to know about MOC, didn't know about those orders before

Happy Halloween


----------



## ddkay

My Canadian bank counted this as Tier 1 capital


----------



## KaeJS

lmfao, ddkay.

Maybe they need one of these in case of emergencies, sure to heal everything money related:


----------



## ddkay

> Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money have gone missing from MF Global in recent days, prompting an investigation into the company’s operations as it filed for bankruptcy on Monday, according to several people briefed on the matter.
> 
> The revelation of the missing money scuttled an 11th hour deal for MF Global to sell a major part of itself to a rival brokerage firm. MF Global, the powerhouse commodities brokerage run by Jon S. Corzine, had staked its survival on completing the deal.


http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/31/regulators-investigating-mf-global/

Compliance Officer(R) Risk Control(tm)


----------



## KaeJS

Everywhere I look I see negativity.

Where are the bulls?

I'm getting scared again, and that doesn't happen often.


----------



## el oro

KaeJS, you're starting to sound like a younger Belguy


----------



## KaeJS

Well, I don't get worried often.

But I'm worried now.

I think its because of the movie in Mode's signature that I watched the other day.

Logic tells me not to sell - Emotions tell me otherwise.

I try to stick with logic, 99.99_% of the time.

Let it be known that my logic also thinks things are going to get a hell of a lot worse this week.


----------



## Abha

After the massive run up, we needed a day like this. It's healthy to consolidate a little before going up again


----------



## KaeJS

Abha said:


> After the massive run up, we needed a day like this. It's healthy to consolidate a little before going up again


A *day* like this?

Ha.

Two days for sure, quite possibly more.

We are all screwed tomorrow. 

Futures are riding the elevator down, Asian markets are falling, negative news is being posted, after hours market was wrecked.

Be prepared to lose more money in your long positions tomorrow.


----------



## Belguy

I get a lot of complaining--read whining--on this forum about all of my whining but I can't help thinking that I am one of the very few who posts his results on an ongoing basis. For once, I would like to read the multi-year returns of some of the much more positive hotshots on here who criticize me when I bemoan my results from a long term buy-and-hold ETF portfolio without ever once telling us how their system has performed for them not for today, the past week, since the first of the year, but over a multi-year period.

In other words, how has a system of active trading, buying and selling, and market timing worked for you over the longer term? What is your long term track record rather than the killing that you made on the stock that you bought last month and sold today?

Over the years, I have read much about how the 'Couch Potato' formula outperforms the results of most any other trading system over the long term and certainly outperforms the vast majority of professionally managed portfolios.

Maybe you could help me to either prove or disprove this hypothesis.

Or, would you rather just tell me that it is none of my business and keep whining about my whining??!!!


----------



## Causalien

I'll go on the record to say: It's going to fall. Especially when the current month's ISM comes out.

My longest option strategy 3 years running is returning 25% per year. Theoretically, it should be 60%, but I suck. Can't say the same glamorous result for my normal investments though.


----------



## marina628

Just flipped my lucky coin and it tells me to sell my $10,000 Nasdaq index stock and take my 15% profits tomorrow .This sell will put me @ 2% profit in 2011 belguy.I still have some dividends coming in but considering i know friends down 22% this year I am happy if i can get my 4% in 2011.But I am still a little fish , long way to go yet !


----------



## Belguy

Well, marina628, maybe we can hear from some of the big fish on this forum on what long term returns their skills have brought them over the years. I am very curious as to what kind of returns market timers and active traders actually achieve over the longer term not withstanding that I understand that sometimes you could make a killing on an individual investment due even to the possibility of pure luck. After all, somebody has to win the lottery!! That we don't often hear about such long term returns, but only about short term gains, could be put down to the folks on here just not wanting to brag about how they have done over the longer term. Still, it would be interesting to hear.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> Well, marina628, maybe we can hear from some of the big fish on this forum on what long term returns their skills have brought them over the years. I am very curious as to what kind of returns market timers and active traders actually achieve over the longer term not withstanding that I understand that sometimes you could make a killing on an individual investment due even to the possibility of pure luck. After all, somebody has to win the lottery!! That we don't often hear about such long term returns, but only about short term gains, could be put down to the folks on here just not wanting to brag about how they have done over the longer term. Still, it would be interesting to hear.


My return is the market return - minimal fee's, with your typical mix of cdn/us/euro/em/bonds 

You can also add a few lucky trade's here and there.

Index investing is not about skills, its about patience and passivity


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy, you and others can always check my spreadsheet for my YTD return. I am not doing so well at only a 2% gain this year.

My strategy is to hold Dividend payers and make risky bets and trades on stocks outside of my long positions when I feel a stock is undervalued. I always make sure that the stock outside of my long positions can turn into a long position, should I be wrong.

My most recent positive trade was buying G at $44.70 and selling at $49 in one week.

My most recent horrible trade was buying POT at $50 and it is now worth $47. POT has now turned into a long position. I don't mind the stock. Everybody's gotta eat, right? And it has been over 50 before, I will just have to wait longer than anticipated to get my profits. No big deal.

That's my strategy. 
However, let it be known that I am still learning, and this has only been my strategy for a few months. In the beginning of the year, I had no strategy LOL.


----------



## Yudansha

Finally the top breaks! I've been getting stopped out on TVIX all last week. Nice to finally get those gains back.

I think as Italy begins to share the debt spotlight with Greece, the volatility is going to be back with a vengeance.


----------



## Jungle

Buying opportunity is coming back now. Europe markets down 2-4% this morning. 

I really interesting in adding some VWO as we have no emerging markets. I would love to buy a boatload @ $35.


----------



## Causalien

One must wonder why the untouchables (GS alumini) are getting targeted.


----------



## ddkay

/ES_F opening at 1210, wow


----------



## Four Pillars

Belguy said:


> For once, I would like to read the multi-year returns of some of the much more positive hotshots on here who criticize me when I bemoan my results from a long term buy-and-hold ETF portfolio without ever once telling us how their system has performed for them not for today, the past week, since the first of the year, but over a multi-year period.


Here are my couch potato results for the last five years.

http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/canadian-couch-potato-portfolio-returns/

Belguy - you don't report results - you just complain.

My theory is that you are a retired gov't employee with a great pension and only have a small play portfolio which you use for fun and to torment us with the "results".


----------



## ddkay

I wouldn't be surprised to see BAC file Chapter 11 soon, then the Fed hint QE3 before a final drop


----------



## ddkay

Italian 10Y at 6.354% YTM now

Some spreads:


----------



## larry81

Four Pillars said:


> My theory is that you are a retired gov't employee with a great pension and only have a small play portfolio which you use for fun and to torment us with the "results".


touché !


----------



## KaeJS

Wow.

Future down 235......


----------



## al42

yup...Blood in the streets today!!


----------



## Homerhomer

Greeks debating how much handouts they are graciously willing to accept came out of the blue, but the bigger issue IMO is manufacturing data out of China, a sign that European recession may be spreading.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Four Pillars said:


> Belguy - you don't report results - you just complain.


Not only that, but he's disrespectful to those that don't share his investment strategy. He has called us big fish, hotshots, gamblers, liers, speculators & it has stopped being funny. 

*"but I can't help thinking that I am one of the very few who posts his results on an ongoing basis"* - and why would the rest have to post their results on any basis? 

*"For once, I would like to read the multi-year returns of some of the much more positive hotshots"* - it is none of your business actually; it is fine to post such information willingly, but it is not fine to ask. If I told you how much I made or did not make, would that help you? 

We don't criticize your results, so what you're saying is false, what some have tried to do, is offer advice, but only after your constant crying & whining, however, you're not interested in advice, your only interest is in complaining & in telling the non-couch potatoes that they are wrong.


----------



## ddkay

I'd like to be a couch potato that buys at a generational bottom and sells at a generational top. Fundamentals matter...


----------



## ddkay

October ISM comes out 50.8 at vs. 52.0 estimates. Prior month was 51.6.


----------



## ddkay

There's a bullish trend forming on intraday, so it may be ok to go long again in the very short term, depending on new headlines. Buy at your own risk.. I'm still not buying it.


----------



## andrewf

I've been mostly out of the market since the beginning of September, so I am watching patiently for now. I was getting close to buying today (buy signals were triggered), but I had doubts that the uncertainty in Europe was resolved, as we see today.


----------



## ddkay

Anybody know when Greece is supposed to get its sixth tranche?

1230s failed to break, 1220 failed to hold, 1216 next, then 1208


----------



## dogcom

Could be turnaround Tuesday today hopefully for those who are long. I have been long with about 70% in the market since a couple of weeks ago. I know careful is the word as the macro risk is huge and is certainly not noise.

Another thing that should start to weigh down on the market soon is tax loss selling.


----------



## fatcat

> Not only that, but he's disrespectful to those that don't share his investment strategy. He has called us big fish, hotshots, gamblers, liers, speculators & it has stopped being funny.


ditto from me too, belguy, either add something useful or keep your own counsel

i have watched the belguy show long enough ... it's getting really old


----------



## andrewf

I have to say I don't recall belguy really sharing results. He mostly shares his panic attacks. We get punished for his inappropriate asset allocation given his risk tolerance.


----------



## ddkay

People are funny. Reports coming in now that the referendum won't happen (RIP legitimate democracies).

http://www.ifre.com/greek-referendu...hens-chamber-of-commerce-head/1613821.article


----------



## marina628

I am not sure what sort of investor I am yet lol.I have really focused on building my portfolio in last year ,before that i did a passive approach with mostly GIC and comfort portfolios from TD.But when the interest rates went down on GIC couple years ago I knew I had to up my game a bit.
I am taking a backseat and when you guys talk about specific stocks I do sit up and listen but most of the things you guys do are over my head. Maybe another year hanging out with you guys I will feel comfortable to do options ,puts and stops ,currently that is like Chinese to me lol


----------



## Causalien

I am sticking to the original plan. QE3 or I won't invest the other 50%


----------



## ddkay

So the referendum is on, Paprandeou's spokesperson confirms and says it would be held in January. I guess that makes the year end rally is a distant dream now.

G20 and FOMC meetings should yield some new info tomorrow. Still sitting on my hands.


----------



## Mockingbird

Took the buy trigger near closing. Trailing stops below S&P intraday low.
Going to be a long night.

MB


----------



## Mockingbird

ddkay said:


> I guess there were better charts to look at for a clean / "proper" island pattern, with larger gaps
> 
> TLT is showing the inverse
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Good to know about MOC, didn't know about those orders before
> 
> Happy Halloween


Should see where it closed today.
Been nibbling on 10yr Note for the last two days.

MB


----------



## Jon_Snow

Did some selling today. Most of my holdings were above water (bought during August lows) and I am going on holidays for 3 weeks. Don't need to be stressing out and constantly checking my portfolio while I am lying poolside.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> October ISM comes out 50.8 at vs. 52.0 estimates. Prior month was 51.6.


What is ISM?

And I got slaughtered worse today than yesterday.

At one point, I was down over $600+ (which is a lot for me).


----------



## Mockingbird

Wealth of info, including ISM.

http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html

MB


----------



## KaeJS

Institute for Supply Management, thanks MB.

I have added that link to my favourites.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> What is ISM?
> 
> And I got slaughtered worse today than yesterday.
> 
> At one point, I was down over $600+ (which is a lot for me).


I'd be happy to be down today just $600


----------



## gibor365

OK, Greeks decided to play some democracy games with this referendum.... I'm just curious where they gonna find money for this referendum?! Again, beg Germans?!

Germans - smart nation, their problem that they have wrong judgement about other nations... in WWII they underestimated Russians, with this euro they overestimated Greeks and other lazy southern countries...


----------



## ddkay

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_YU55

This thing is coming back for us in 2041


----------



## KaeJS

I thought this thread was labelled 'Market Forecasts', not 'Solar Forecasts'?

I don't think it will hit in 2041. and if it does, well, I'll be 51 anyway. Good life.


----------



## larry81

You know you on a permabear financial twilight zone forum when information about pending ASTEROID HOLOCAUST get posted along with end of the world market crash forecast !


----------



## ddkay

Domestic terror plot unraveled in the US... http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/01/justice/georgia-militia-arrests/

So how much more of this crazy #@$& can we expect? Who are these guys? I bet you they owned gold


----------



## larry81

larry81 said:


> You know you on a permabear financial twilight zone forum when information about pending ASTEROID HOLOCAUST *and TERRORIST ATTACK* get posted along with end of the world market crash forecast !


edit in *bold!*


----------



## ddkay

larry's buying the dip again


----------



## el oro

Damn those terrorists and their gold!


----------



## LBCfan

KaeJS said:


> What is ISM?
> 
> And I got slaughtered worse today than yesterday.
> 
> At one point, I was down over $600+ (which is a lot for me).
> 
> 
> 
> gibor said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd be happy to be down today just $600
Click to expand...

I'm down about $60K today. Ho, hum, just another day in the casino.

Well, I try to look to the long term. That may be more than next week/Xmas/Easter/Victoria Day etc. 

Those of you in accumulation mode should welcome these dips and have an orgasm over a crash. Just remember to buy when there is blood in the streets. We ain't there yet (and we may never be).


----------



## gibor365

Looks like next several months market will be driven by polls on output ot this referendum.
But what other choice Greece has? IMHO If they don't want bailout, it would be like Romania during Eastern Bloc...no electricity after 10 pm, TV - 2 hours per day, soldiers with AK47 guarding lines to buy food and so on ...
At the end, some form of military gov't will come back...


----------



## KaeJS

LBCfan said:


> Those of you in accumulation mode should welcome these dips and have an orgasm over a crash. Just remember to buy when there is blood in the streets. We ain't there yet (and we may never be).


This is exactly my issue.

I don't want to stop investing so much in BMO, because if things go sour, I want to grab cheap BMO shares.

So, right now I am at 40% of my salary, but if I change this to 10% and start to pay off some of my margin in my actual trading account, I might miss the BMO boat!


----------



## ddkay

gibor, I don't think it will be that bad. Once they default, there is no more bad debt, creditors will be happier lending to them, because they know their investment won't evaporate right away.. if they can control their own interest rates, their own currency, they won't default twice in a row. They should come out stronger than they are now...


----------



## larry81

False alarm, referendum will be voted off this Friday.

This is the same kind of 'news' that the Slovenia bullshit vote two weeks ago.

Nobody cant expect a double digit gain in a MONTH, without some sort of up/down


----------



## KaeJS

larry,

that's a bold statement.


----------



## dubmac

I nibbled today - picked up some RY @ 47.05 and BNS at 51.10. Hopefully more deals to in the next few weeks ...


----------



## KaeJS

*Auto sales are up in the month of October*

"Economic concerns continue to dog the overall recovery here at home but there are signs Americans are willing to spend. In October, auto sales zipped along with consumers buying more cars and trucks than in previous months."

http://www.wndu.com/nationworldnews/headlines/Auto_sales_are_up_in_the_month_of_October_133047023.html


----------



## ddkay

afaik the next immediate GGB bond maturity date is March 20, 2012

http://borsaitaliana.it/borsa/obbli...gazioni/scheda.html?isin=GR0110021236&lang=en


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> gibor, I don't think it will be that bad. Once they default, there is no more bad debt, creditors will be happier lending to them, because they know their investment won't evaporate right away.. if they can control their own interest rates, their own currency, they won't default twice in a row. They should come out stronger than they are now...


I doubt it... imho in this case they will have hyperinflation , investors won't touch this country for a very long time...why to take a risk when you can work with countries without those issues like former Soviet bloq countries or former Yugoslavia....
This country just will have a bad image... For example if I'd like to buy some real estate in this region, I'd prefer invest into Macedonia or Crovatia (as an example)...
Regarding currency, actually they will have 2 currencies: bullshit one - drachma (or how they will call it) and real - Euro...
P.S. I visited couple of years ago Czech Republic, they preferred me to pay in euro , not in their own crons


----------



## ddkay

Nice call MB... this is where ES ended up this morning

If it's a J hook could end up with full retrace today/tomm


----------



## larry81

howdy !


----------



## ddkay

No QE3, Op Twist continues as planned - FOMC


----------



## ddkay

This red line is life support IMO


----------



## ddkay

From B.Insider: Greece's payment schedule


----------



## kcowan

Or:


----------



## KaeJS

You're all just children drawing funny lines on charts with a ruler and different coloured crayons.


----------



## ddkay

>> BEN BERNANKE: We did see some improvement in the third quarter. We saw, for 
example, stronger consumption spending. Reasonable amount of capital investment. Lower 
inventories. Therefore suggesting more production in the fourth quarter. So it looks like the 
fourth quarter as well will be a moderate growth quarter. So there was some improvement. 
Some improvement at least early in the period in financial markets although some of that has 
been reversed. So that was part of the situation that we were acknowledging in our statement. 
That's true. But as has been noted the medium term outlook relative to our June projections 
has been downgraded and the outlook remains unsatisfactory over the next few years. And 
will continue to ask ourselves whether or not additional stimulus or additional actions can 
provide a better outcome and that's certainly something that remains on the table and will 
continue to evaluate as we go forward. 
>> Thank you. 
>> BEN BERNANKE: Thank you. 
(Press conference concluded)


----------



## ddkay

/me wonders what he can say to bug larry81

My crystal ball sez one last risk on rally before the grand finale. Greece govt confidence vote succeeds Friday, referendum is held next week and the bailout fails! Then the IMF steps in to calm everyone down for a few months, but they quickly run out of resources, so the rest of 'em default in March next year. China steps in to buy lots of French-German-Italian businesses at steep discounts. Then a recovery begins. You heard it here first!


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> /me wonders what he can say to bug larry81
> 
> My crystal ball sez one last risk on rally before the grand finale. Greece govt confidence vote succeeds Friday, referendum is held next week and the bailout fails! Then the IMF steps in to calm everyone down for a few months, but they quickly run out of resources, so the rest of 'em default in March next year. China steps in to buy lots of French-German-Italian businesses at steep discounts. Then a recovery begins. You heard it here first!


I am in for the long run, I dont invest any money that i need, a crash is an opportunity to BUY. Do you know how many time Greece defaulted in the last 100 years ? You might be in for a surprise 

Also wondering,

Do you keep track of your forecast ?

Do you believe in your ability to do market timing (market entry and exit) ?

Do you believe that you can 'beat' the market ?


----------



## Homerhomer

ddkay said:


> /me wonders what he can say to bug larry81
> 
> My crystal ball sez one last risk on rally before the grand finale. Greece govt confidence vote succeeds Friday, referendum is held next week and the bailout fails! Then the IMF steps in to calm everyone down for a few months, but they quickly run out of resources, so the rest of 'em default in March next year. China steps in to buy lots of French-German-Italian businesses at steep discounts. Then a recovery begins. You heard it here first!


Predictions are a fools game, if you get it right you are lucky, if you are wrong you look like an idiot ;-)


----------



## ddkay

It's your job to buy stocks


----------



## fatcat

this looks fun ... from citigroup via zerohedge
i hear all the honeybees are dying .. what are we going to feed the bears ?


----------



## larry81

Simply fools trying to predict the future by looking in the rear mirror.

Nobody know the future


----------



## Jon_Snow

I've got an investment that beats all - LBYM. Its grossed my wife and I 4k per month for many years.

Actually, I'm quite serious that this is the best path to prosperity for the masses.


----------



## webber22

LBYM is listed on the Greek Exchange?


----------



## Jon_Snow

Whatever works for ya.


----------



## larry81

Jon_Snow said:


> I've got an investment that beats all - LBYM. Its grossed my wife and I 4k per month for many years.
> 
> Actually, I'm quite serious that this is the best path to prosperity for the masses.


x2 for a simple, efficient, time tested approach to the riches !


----------



## ddkay

This is going to be 78 cents again


----------



## ddkay

LinkedIn is posting earnings tomorrow, but share dilution is supposed to be coming November 21st. Symmetric triangle break could play out soon. The options are still expensive as hell. 1 ITM contract is close to a thousand dollars.


----------



## KaeJS

Another down day tomorrow. 

If I don't get some capital injected soon and this market keeps falling I'm going to be in some really deep trouble with Mr. Margin.

I was really hoping I could have an up day tomorrow so I could sell some stuff and reduce my margin


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Another down day tomorrow.
> 
> If I don't get some capital injected soon and this market keeps falling I'm going to be in some really deep trouble with Mr. Margin.
> 
> I was really hoping I could have an up day tomorrow so I could sell some stuff and reduce my margin


I was hoping too, but corrupted morons Papandreou and Co decided to play democracy games.. .. when somebody shuts up this ******* ?!

some interesting comments about cancer-country on:
www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/referendum-will-confirm-greece-in-euro-papandreou.html

PS. Was thinking to boycott Greece products....but realized that I've never seen in my life ANY Greece product (I lived in 3 countries and visited close to 20). Do they produce anything at all?!


----------



## donald

Beautiful women lol


----------



## gibor365

donald said:


> Beautiful women lol











 this one represents country
http://www.google.ca/imgres?q=greek...&tbnw=247&start=0&ndsp=29&ved=1t:429,r:27,s:0


----------



## Argonaut

Greek exports? Democracy, philosophy, the alphabet.. oh wait, that was 23 centuries ago. I see it either becoming a police state or descending into anarchy, hard to see an in between. Sad. I've got a Greek username, even.


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> Greek exports? Democracy, philosophy, the alphabet.. oh wait, that was 23 centuries ago. I see it either becoming a police state or descending into anarchy, hard to see an in between. Sad. I've got a Greek username, even.


imho they will get anarchy and later something like
"The Regime of the Colonels" (The Greek military junta of 1967–1974,)..
For sure Greek community in Toronto will expand 

From what I understand, country exists like other "banana republics" on tourism (even though I don't know 1 person who really liked trip over there). With all this mess tourism will be sharply declining... EU won't give them a cent (as per Merkel/Sarkozy)... only God, Salvation Army and Red Cross can help them


----------



## Causalien

ddkay said:


> LinkedIn is posting earnings tomorrow, but share dilution is supposed to be coming November 21st. Symmetric triangle break could play out soon. The options are still expensive as hell. 1 ITM contract is close to a thousand dollars.


Do a chart on NFLX for me ddkay.


----------



## Argonaut

T-Gal's instincts were right on Netflix, it was a good buy after the earnings drop. Only as a short-term spec of course. They keep emailing me to subscribe so they're probably hurting. May buy puts again next quarter.


----------



## Jungle

My boys at BCE doing a good job today as well; profit up 41%! 

http://www.brandonsun.com/business/...-per-cent-to-642-million-133142018.html?thx=y


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> ps. Was thinking to boycott greece products....but realized that i've never seen in my life any greece product (i lived in 3 countries and visited close to 20). Do they produce anything at all?!


rofl.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> *OUR *boys at BCE doing a good job today as well; profit up 41%!




Good thing I own some. Thanks for posting that up, Jungle. Good luck to us.


----------



## KaeJS

donald said:


> Beautiful women lol




They produce those? 

What about the Portuguese, the Swedish, the Brazilians, the Spanish...


----------



## larry81

donald said:


> Beautiful *hairy* women lol


Corrected

Also, the only Greece export are feta and olive oil...


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> What about the Portuguese, the Swedish, the Brazilians, the Spanish...


Was familiar with all the above [including the hairy type from Russia], but not the Portuguese, LOL.


----------



## ddkay

ddkay said:


> My crystal ball sez one last risk on rally before the grand finale...


Called it!

@Causalien I posted one a few pages back here


----------



## ddkay

Meanwhile, Jefferies investment bank is collapsing...


----------



## gibor365

larry81 said:


> Corrected
> 
> Also, the only Greece export are feta and olive oil...


Really?! do you think that Israel doesn't export olive oil?!


----------



## Causalien

ddkay said:


> Called it!
> 
> @Causalien I posted one a few pages back here


THat's linked in.


----------



## ddkay

Oh sorry I misread, I'll do NFLX soon


----------



## ddkay




----------



## humble_pie

is that a chart or what !!

this is what i mean about adult comic books. I mean adult as in serious, thoughtful, illustrated comic books for real DIY investors. Serving up real value in cartoon, whiteboard & chart format. I do not mean adult as in smutty.

all that's missing are a storyboard, some appealing characters & a few running jokes.

larry you seem to be an excellent businessperson. Do you think there's $$$ for a publisher of online finance comic books ... not just one, but a series covering different topics.


----------



## larry81

larry81 said:


> False alarm, referendum will be voted off this Friday.
> 
> This is the same kind of 'news' that the Slovenia bullshit vote two weeks ago.
> 
> Nobody cant expect a double digit gain in a MONTH, without some sort of up/down


*U.S. Stocks Rise as Greece Abandons Referendum, ECB Cuts Rates*
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/03/bloomberg_articlesLU3GCD6VDKIG.DTL

WHAT A SURPRISE !!!

edit: hehehe


----------



## larry81

humble_pie said:


> is that a chart or what !!
> 
> this is what i mean about adult comic books. I mean adult as in serious, thoughtful, illustrated comic books for real DIY investors. Serving up real value in cartoon, whiteboard & chart format. I do not mean adult as in smutty.
> 
> all that's missing are a storyboard, some appealing characters & a few running jokes.
> 
> larry you seem to be an excellent businessperson. Do you think there's $$$ for a publisher of online finance comic books ... not just one, but a series covering different topics.


Not sure but look at this, they are amazing 

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/your-money/carl-richards-gallery.html


----------



## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> larry you seem to be an excellent businessperson. Do you think there's $$$ for a publisher of online finance comic books ... not just one, but a series covering different topics.


 that strikes me as a very good idea ... there is an entire generation out there that is almost completely visually oriented when it comes to learning ... do it as an ipad app


----------



## Mockingbird

Mockingbird said:


> Took the buy trigger near closing. Trailing stops below S&P intraday low.
> Going to be a long night.
> 
> MB


Exiting 1/2 swing positions into closing. Trailing stop raised to below ES1230 .
Will monitor tomorrow's price action and reset if necessary.

MB


----------



## Causalien

humble_pie said:


> is that a chart or what !!
> 
> this is what i mean about adult comic books. I mean adult as in serious, thoughtful, illustrated comic books for real DIY investors. Serving up real value in cartoon, whiteboard & chart format. I do not mean adult as in smutty.
> 
> all that's missing are a storyboard, some appealing characters & a few running jokes.
> 
> larry you seem to be an excellent businessperson. Do you think there's $$$ for a publisher of online finance comic books ... not just one, but a series covering different topics.


Humble, what do you need to get it started? Enough yes vote from members? Why not draw one with 3 panels, scan it online and post it around different forums so you can gauge the interest?


----------



## Causalien

ddkay said:


>


Hmm, from my point of view the top of the channel should be around $160 if we are drawing using the two peaks from $304 and $236. I don't get how you draw your channels. What is the methodology you personally use?


----------



## Causalien

larry81 said:


> *U.S. Stocks Rise as Greece Abandons Referendum, ECB Cuts Rates*
> http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/03/bloomberg_articlesLU3GCD6VDKIG.DTL
> 
> WHAT A SURPRISE !!!
> 
> edit: hehehe


G Papa is trying to use this hard fought German French coalition to win more popularity with a referendum showing his people support him.

My friends and I were actually discussing the step-by-step events of how war will break out and spread into WW3 from here on. I am hoping the Friday vote put the prospect of referendum out of the choices.

edit: typos


----------



## gibor365

Causalien said:


> G Papa is trying to use this hard fought German French coalition to win more popularity with a referendum showing his people support him.
> 
> My friends and I were actually discussing the step-by-step events of how war will break out and spread into WW3 from here on. I am hoping the Friday vote put the prospect of referendum out of the choices.
> 
> edit: typos


As i said before he wanted to play democracy game... "German French coalition " just shut him up ... play democracy games with your wife , not with euro


----------



## ddkay

The long term picture:









Bubbles never make a "soft landing", as we learned from the dot-com bubble, the US RE bubble, and we are soon to learn from the government debt bubble. I hope I'm alive to pick up the pieces at the bottom of this bear market.


----------



## Jungle

BCE beats estimates, stock finishes lower. MFC posts billion dollar loss, stock finished higher. *[email protected] the stock market. *


----------



## ddkay

Causalien said:


> Hmm, from my point of view the top of the channel should be around $160 if we are drawing using the two peaks from $304 and $236. I don't get how you draw your channels. What is the methodology you personally use?


I follow the edges of the candlesticks, I don't get what you mean, can you post your drawing?


----------



## larry81

Tommorow is the employment report at 8:30 AM.

Should be an interesting day !


----------



## dogcom

I said a month ago or something that the market was not ready to go down just yet and a nice rally should occur. As we go along here we a going to form a nice bull trap that will give everyone the spanking I think is coming unless the fed does something reckless to kick the can down the road before the train really comes off the tracks.

Markets are climbing a wall of worry or so we think as Europe comes unglued. We need a nice bull trap to get those of importance out of the market before Europe really does come apart. Sorry but it is all gambling from here and it is not business as usual as many on the forum seem to think. Keep your money safe because I don't think it will be easy to make money on the short or the long side.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> BCE beats estimates, stock finishes lower. MFC posts billion dollar loss, stock finished higher. *[email protected] the stock market. *


Yeah.

Really, though...


----------



## larry81

Guys dont look outside, the sky is currently failing !!!

This time its true !


----------



## ddkay

"I am great now, but I will be even greater later." - larry81


----------



## ddkay

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/us-mfglobal-margin-idUSTRE7A27Y020111103



> By Jeanine Prezioso and Karl Plume
> NEW YORK/CHICAGO | Thu Nov 3, 2011 6:12pm EDT
> (Reuters) - Call it the mother of all margin calls: *Up to 50,000 former customers of bankrupt broker MF Global must find some $1 billion in additional collateral almost overnight, or be forced out of their trades.*
> 
> Come Friday, with the mass transfer of commodity trading accounts from Jon Corzine's fallen firm to six of its erstwhile rivals, margin clerks will be wrapping up a reckoning of how much additional money is needed to cover millions of positions. Clients who can't quickly meet their margin will have to liquidate, making for a tumultuous day's trade.
> 
> A court order to move the trades late on Wednesday brought only marginal relief to clients who have been essentially frozen out of their funds and positions since Friday. While accounts will now be transferred more quickly, only 60 percent of the collateral will be moved to the new brokers.
> 
> That figure may yet fluctuate as brokers scramble on Thursday to work out the details, but the net result is still likely to mean that customers will be forced to post a hefty sum within a day or two. Many of MF Global's mainly small-scale clients may fail, triggering a mass liquidation of both short and long positions that may roil markets.
> 
> "I've got somewhere in the region of 8,000 positions. We can't afford to double margin those sorts of positions," said Tom Wacker, a proprietary gold futures trader in New York. "If we can't get our positions transferred they're going to be liquidated and we're going to lose a lot of money."
> 
> Eventually, in days or weeks, the remainder of the money should be returned. The $600 million that regulators say MF Global may have misappropriated from customers could remain outstanding, but that is less than a tenth of its funds.
> 
> In the meantime, however, brokers are unlikely to extend loans to new, unfamiliar customers to make up the margin gap -- and in some cases may simply refuse to take them at all.
> 
> "We are going to require full margin on our accounts," says Sean O'Connor, chief executive of INTL FCStone, the second-smallest of the six futures commission merchants (FCMs)selected to take the accounts.
> 
> FRANTIC TRADERS
> 
> FC Stone processes "hundreds" of account transfers a month, but the speed and scale of this week's activity makes it an enormous challenge, he said. Transfers only began in earnest late on Wednesday, as overworked MF Global brokers were unable to keep pace with requests earlier in the week.
> 
> "The CME has said the way they would like to handle this is the accounts are moved or they liquidate it within five days, so this will be resolved by Monday," O'Connor told Reuters.
> 
> That means crunch time on Friday as the six firms -- ABN Amro Chicago Clearing, ADM Investor Services, Dorman Trading, FCStone, R.J. O'Brien and Rosenthal Collins Group -- calculate the margin required for traders to keep their trades open.
> 
> Some traders grew increasingly frantic, fearful of being forced out of positions if a broker won't take them on.
> 
> Stephen Harbeck, president of Securities Investor Protection Corp, a group that recovers assets from failed brokerage firms, told Reuters that they were having trouble finding brokers willing to take on the accounts.
> 
> A mass liquidation in the commodity markets wouldn't have the same effect as in equities, when most of the trade would be selling. For every long futures position there's an offsetting short, and therefore just as many customers should be selling long positions as buying back short ones.
> 
> But it may make for a wild session.
> 
> "Risk managers out there are going to be as cautious as possible. Obviously with no money coming out of MF, positions are going to have to be liquidated just because there will be accounts that are carrying debit balances over," said Rob Kurzatkowski futures analyst with OptionsXpress in Chicago.
> 
> "I think we're going to see extremely volatile trading."
> 
> WHEN MARGINS CALL...
> 
> Margin works like this: an exchange requires that its members (clearing brokers like MF Global) place money on deposit when they take trades from customers. The clients post those funds to MF Global, which places them in a special segregated account that can be reviewed by the exchange.
> 
> When MF Global filed for bankruptcy on Monday, almost all that collateral was essentially frozen. Some customers were able to liquidate positions or transfer, but they were not able to get any funds out of the broker. And the remaining employees have been overwhelmed by customer demands.
> 
> "Like a lot of others, I'm depending on the media for what's going on," one MF Global broker told Reuters.
> 
> Wednesday's court proceeding would release some 60 percent of those funds and move the accounts to new brokers; with total funds are estimated at $2.5 billion, around $1 billion would remain at MF Global, according to the order. It was not clear which of the brokers would get the lion's share, although one industry source said R.J. O'Brien had led the effort, and as the largest of the bunch would likely get a large portion.
> 
> The overall amount of additional funds required isn't particularly large in the grand scale of things.
> 
> When exchanges raise minimum margins for a specific commodity, which they do routinely when prices are volatile, the market adjustment can be more significant. In September, a 21 percent hike in CME gold margins was equivalent to a call for $2 billion to top up escrow accounts to maintain all open positions, long and short.
> 
> While MF Global's funds represent only 4.3 percent of all segregated FCM accounts, the impact of the margin call could be much larger. Not only did the firm service a large share of smaller retail and day-traders who will be hard-pressed to come up with the additional capital, they also serviced some of the most active players: it was the No. 1 most active broker on the New York metals and energy markets, and No. 2 in Chicago.
> 
> The silver lining may be that commodity prices, as a whole, are broadly unchanged from where they were on Friday, when most of MF Global's positions were last fully margined. If prices had instead fallen, for instance, any clients holding long positions would have had a disproportionate need for collateral relative to short positions, fueling more selling than buying.
> 
> NOT THE FIRST TIME
> 
> The current process is similar to what occurred in 2005 to Refco, which had collapsed in a massive fraud scandal. Funds from segregated accounts were distributed out at 50 percent initially, followed quickly by two sets of 25 percent. In the end, all funds were returned to brokerage customers.
> 
> It was nearly six years ago to the day that MF Global's former parent Man Financial paid $282 million to buy most of Refco, its fallen rival. Overnight, Man grew by more than half, becoming the fourth largest in the industry.
> 
> But its growth then stalled. As of this August, MF Global held $7.3 billion in its segregated accounts -- compared to $7.2 billion in December 2005, a month after its deal, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
> 
> Even so, MF Global was nearly three times the size of the next-largest independent broker, and divvying up even a portion of those accounts could be a welcome windfall for brokers who have suffered doubly over the past decade -- first through a wrenching shift to electronic trading and now years of depleted interest income due to near-zero rates.
> 
> However, shareholders in FCStone were not impressed. Its shares rose just 1 percent, pacing the overall market.
> 
> "Remember this isn't the first time we've had a transfer of funds from a failed broker," said Dennis Gartman, a veteran trader and commentator who also serves on the board of the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT).
> 
> "This is the first time we've had one this massive in size, this public in nature, and this egregious in terms of the man who was behind the losses. But what will happen is that they transfer with a portion of the collateral, and the rest will follow. They want to keep some capital on hand just in case."
> 
> Gartman said the KCBT wasn't anticipating particularly volatile trading on Friday, with MF Global's short and long positions in its mainstay wheat contract roughly balanced.
> 
> (Additional reporting by Matthew Robinson, David Sheppard in New York, Mark Weinraub in Chicago; Writing by Jonathan Leff; Editing by Alden Bentley


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> "I am great now, but I will be even greater later." - larry81


its not about me, its about THE END OF THE WORLD. We must prepare for the coming financial Armageddon !

I am just a messenger, don't shoot at me !


----------



## ddkay

"I'm not worried about Greece, not even a little" - larry81

I'm not worried either I took a leaf from you book and at the flick of a switch I'm all hedged bro


----------



## ddkay

roflolol Greece 5-yr CDS are at over 4000bps and apparently 5-yr EFSF bailout bond CDS are at 194bps and rising

http://www.ifre.com/derivatives-dealers-baulk-at-quoting-cds-on-efsf/1614033.article



> “People have been shorting the [EFSF] bonds, but I don’t think anyone has been doing anything on CDS,” said one trader at a credit fund. “I imagine it would be fraught with issues – politicians would go bonkers.”


----------



## Jungle

Canada loses 54,000 jobs last month!!


----------



## Jungle

Wow, Telus beat estimates and boost dividend.. again.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> Canada loses 54,000 jobs last month!!


Ouch.

That's not very good. Especially considering holiday season is coming?


----------



## dubmac

Jungle said:


> Wow, Telus beat estimates and boost dividend.. again.


I know that one shouldn't "love" a stock - but Telus is one that been simply amazing - resiliant, relaible, and a $-maker!. (analagous to my 1984 diesel jetta.

T and BCE have buffered by pf against the nauseating performance of SLF.


----------



## ddkay

The US posted 80,000 m/m change. The US needs to post 208,000 jobs every month for the next 14 years to be back at pre-recessions levels. Have fun!


----------



## Belguy

The North American markets are down today on poor job results.

That's TODAY'S excuse.

One step forward and two steps back!!

Part of the joys of living during the 'Great Recession'.


----------



## Darius

gibor said:


> PS. Was thinking to boycott Greece products....but realized that I've never seen in my life ANY Greece product (I lived in 3 countries and visited close to 20). Do they produce anything at all?!


Wow. Lots of ignorant comments in this thread. Some borderline stuff too, with another poster named Larry generalizing Greek women as "Hairy".

I suspect some are getting burned in this down turn and need something to vent on. Too bad so sad.

Greece is just the tip of the ice berg. Its like the small hole in the hull that if you take your finger out of the whole structure collapses. The spotlight is on Greece because it will be the first domino to fall. If the country defaults the ramifications it will have on the likes of Italy, Spain and Portugal (countries that have accumulated comparable debts) could potentially be far more devastating. 

As for what Greece produces, have you heard of google? A quick search produces interesting results. Greece is one of the largest shipping countries in the world, the largest producers of some agricultural products in Europe, has a respectable mining and petroleum industry and has had a GDP growth for about 20 years that was higher than the eu average.

Corruption, tax evasion and government over spending have destroyed the country's economy. The politicians, large business owners, highly disproportionate military spending, and the rich have stripped the country and now the regular Greek (who puts in on average among the highest number of hours of work per year in the EU) will be expected to pay the piper.

The whole eurozone - single currency- was a bad move IMHO. How can a country like Greece, Spain or Portugal be on the same currency with Germany? The Germans, for all of their crying, have profited billions and billions off of the southern european countries as the result of the advantages they have gained in trade and exports. The whole system is shoddy. 

Go ahead boycott anything Greek. What will be next? Everything Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and even French? D*o you actually believe that the world markets were put into this situation because of an economically insignificant country like Greece?*


----------



## Belguy

As if things aren't scary enough already, on CNBC today, they are suggesting that the effects of Kim Kardashian's divorce have not been priced into the markets yet!!

Can anything else go wrong??


----------



## Toronto.gal

Darius said:


> Wow. Lots of ignorant comments in this thread.


Oh Darius, take it easy; gibor, others & myself were just joking! Don't be so politically correct, as you said, we were just venting & having a little fun, I mean how do you know that I'm not Greek myself for example?

Welcome back to the forum!


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy said:


> Can anything else go wrong??


Yes, it could. Kardashian could get married again


----------



## ddkay

ddkay said:


> My crystal ball sez one last risk on rally before the grand finale. Greece govt confidence vote succeeds Friday, referendum is held next week and the bailout fails! Then the IMF steps in to calm everyone down for a few months, but they quickly run out of resources, so the rest of 'em default in March next year. China steps in to buy lots of French-German-Italian businesses at steep discounts. Then a recovery begins. You heard it here first!


G-Pap's got confidence, 2/8 so far!


----------



## Belguy

The IMF will not run out of resources!! They will just obtain more monies collected from Canadian and American taxpayers to keep any shaky countries afloat!

Your tax dollars at work!!


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> A quick search produces interesting results. Greece is one of the largest shipping countries in the world, the largest producers of some agricultural products in Europe, has a respectable mining and petroleum industry


Why do I need their ships and tankers?! and looks like they bought them in debt.... May be they can use them as a places to live?! 

producer of *some* agricultural products in Europe ....nice achievement... key work is *some*.... I don't remember that I've seen in my live any product "Made in Greece" 

*respectable *mining and petroleum industry - respectable compared to what?! to Andorra and Liechtenstein:?! 

_Go ahead boycott anything Greek_ I would like , but can't and explained why... Even Feta cheese here is made in Etobicoke.... but to make sure I bought Macedonian cheese today 

P.S. My boss before coming to Canada for about 5 years worked in Greece (it was like 20 years ago) and he was telling stories how those guys work....he's very surprises the Greece survived to 2011 lol


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> *o you actually believe that the world markets were put into this situation because of an economically insignificant country like Greece?*


Sure I am! and you don't?


----------



## Argonaut

gibor doesn't seem to be joking. Perhaps he is from a Balkan country and harbours some nationalist prejudice. As a Western historian, I am admittedly biased for Greece towards Macedonia in their dispute so I won't say anything there.

But no, Greece is not the cause of all the problems in the world. People are just rightly afraid it will be the first domino to fall in a financial collapse.


----------



## Homerhomer

Merkle admitted in one of her speaches it will take 10 years to turn Europe around, finally something coming out a politician mouth I can believe in, so far all the resolutions were empty dreams and promises, admitting how deep the problem really is is a good step towards solving this disaster.

http://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/merkel-says-decade-turn-around-131331311.html


----------



## Darius

gibor said:


> _Go ahead boycott anything Greek_ I would like , but can't and explained why... Even Feta cheese here is made in Etobicoke.... but to make sure I bought Macedonian cheese today


Good for you for buying Bulgarian products! I must admit that Bulgarian cheeses are fantastic. The feta is almost as good as the Greek feta.



> P.S. My boss before coming to Canada for about 5 years worked in Greece (it was like 20 years ago) and he was telling stories how those guys work....he's very surprises the Greece survived to 2011 lol


Second hand information coming from someone who obviously holds Balkan prejudices mean absolutely nothing to me. I will let the reader decide who is more credible, you with your "my uncles' father's dog told me" stories or the credible and objective OECD website statistics:

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=CSP2010

Stats for the average number of hours worked (per worker) for 2010, broken down into the top 10 countries:

1. Korea 2193
2*. Greece 2109*
3. Chile 2068
4. Russian Federation 1976
5. Hungary 1961
6. Czech Republic 1947
7. Poland 1939
8. Estonia 1879
9. Turkey 1877
10. Mexico 1866

Dont expect any more responses from me, I wont waste any more of my time with an obvious halfwit who thinks that the state of the world economy is the result of the actions of a tiny country like Greece.


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> Isnt Macedonian cheese the same as Bulgarian cheese? I mean they do speak the same language and have the same history and cuisine.
> 
> 
> 
> Second hand information coming from someone who obviously holds Balkan prejudices mean absolutely nothing to me. I will let the reader decide who is more credible, you with your "my uncles' father's dog told me" stories or the credible and objective OECD website statistics:
> 
> .


The same like say that Polish and Ukrainians speak the same language. 
Macedonian cheese andBulgarian cheeses are not the same.

My boss doesn't hold any Balkan prejudices ...he's Polish...

Euro is like castle made of domino and even if your withdraw the smallest part of it, it can crash.

In light of last events Greece premier showed complete incompetence.


----------



## ddkay

George Soros tells Chrystia Freeland that Angela Merkel was the creator of the European crisis: http://www.reuters.com/video/2011/1...ator-of-t?videoId=224281604&videoChannel=4301


----------



## ddkay

Glad we put a nail in that coffin


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> gibor doesn't seem to be joking.


In every joke there is a grain of .......joke 

BTW, Greece has too many islands and to pay bills they can sell some on eBay


----------



## ddkay

Ottawa should sell AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, NS, PE, QC, SK and those other wastelands up north to reduce our deficit ASAP. Who needs 'em?


----------



## Dmoney

We need AB... the rest can go


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Ottawa should sell AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, NS, PE, QC, SK and those other wastelands up north to reduce our deficit ASAP. Who needs 'em?


Canada has triple A rating... and don't need to sell anything.... but guess what?! if Greece islands go for sale on eBay, Canada could've buy several!!! What would be a nice place to retire!!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Ok, enough of the Greek jokes, let's move on to the next Titanic now.....

'Even in death, politicians in Venice are costing the taxpayer: they have voted that their funeral expenses be paid for by the state..........The attitude and approach of politicians is one of pure arrogance,’ said Rizzo. ‘It’s as if they lived on another planet where *humans are those strange objects who pay taxes and allow them to lead a lavish life.’* 

http://mafiatoday.com/general-break...tion-of-politicians-is-frankly-beyond-belief/

*Darius:* you joined in 2010 & have used 2 out of your 5 posts to tell us how ignorant we are about Greece, but there are plenty other threads here that will show you that we are not all that dense....just ignore gibor & enjoy this great forum.


----------



## Abha

There seems to be so many mini-wars breaking out in various threads on here lately.

Just an observation, but I do find them highly entertaining to read.


----------



## Rommel

Darius said:


> Good for you for buying Bulgarian products! I must admit that Bulgarian cheeses are fantastic. The feta is almost as good as the Greek feta.
> 
> 
> 
> Second hand information coming from someone who obviously holds Balkan prejudices mean absolutely nothing to me. I will let the reader decide who is more credible, you with your "my uncles' father's dog told me" stories or the credible and objective OECD website statistics:
> 
> http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=CSP2010
> 
> Stats for the average number of hours worked (per worker) for 2010, broken down into the top 10 countries:
> 
> 1. Korea 2193
> 2*. Greece 2109*
> 3. Chile 2068
> 4. Russian Federation 1976
> 5. Hungary 1961
> 6. Czech Republic 1947
> 7. Poland 1939
> 8. Estonia 1879
> 9. Turkey 1877
> 10. Mexico 1866
> 
> Dont expect any more responses from me, I wont waste any more of my time with an obvious halfwit who thinks that the state of the world economy is the result of the actions of a tiny country like Greece.


I went to your site for the hours worked and was unable to find information for the year 2010 (the most current data in the chart is 2008) nor could I find the exact numbers posted. I did find similar numbers but my point is ahead.

I did some further analysis and found out the following:

According to the latest available data on their website (2008) the average GDP per hour worked for Greece is 32.1. This is considerably lower than the OCED average of 41.8. In fact the top 10 list you posted, all nations in that list are below the OECD average.

Usually this means countries either have a small workforce (relative on a per capita basis), they work more hours to produce comparable GDP or they are very poor.

I don't know why you're calling him a halfwit, it's not very fair considering working more hours to produce less GDP is not a good thing (efficiency), or an indicator that the country is doing alright.


----------



## Argonaut

I will give 3oz of gold for Naxos.


----------



## ddkay

People give governments a hard time for capital misallocations. Guess what, the "free market" isn't so great either -> GRPN. The difference is GRPN can burn through all their cash & when the money dries up a whole society won't collapse because of it. Oh wait... Systemically Important Financial Institutions? THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. Democrat, Republican, INCOMPETENT. Majority of politicians are dead weights. They will never fix any of this.


----------



## MoMoney

Darius said:


> Stats for the average number of hours worked (per worker) for 2010, broken down into the top 10 countries:
> 
> 1. Korea 2193
> 2*. Greece 2109*
> 3. Chile 2068
> 4. Russian Federation 1976
> 5. Hungary 1961
> 6. Czech Republic 1947
> 7. Poland 1939
> 8. Estonia 1879
> 9. Turkey 1877
> 10. Mexico 1866
> 
> Dont expect any more responses from me, I wont waste any more of my time with an obvious halfwit who thinks that the state of the world economy is the result of the actions of a tiny country like Greece.


With the exception of Korea, if someone had told me that this was a list of the bottom 10 countries based on averaged hours worked I wouldn't have batted an eye.


----------



## larry81

I simply dont care about Greece.


----------



## Belguy

Beware of stock recommendations on forums such as this!!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ry-of-online-financial-advice/article2224569/

Keep the faith!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...the-tv-hold-on-to-your-stocks/article2226036/


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> Beware of stock recommendations on forums such as this!!!
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ry-of-online-financial-advice/article2224569/
> 
> Keep the faith!!
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...the-tv-hold-on-to-your-stocks/article2226036/


Belguy i sure hope that you read the last article you posted, if i could remotely smash your tv I would do it ! 

Very good article from the post, as usual.


----------



## webber22

That's funny Larry. A lot of good comments after the articles, like this one:

_*More fortunes are made during the tough times than the easy times*_


----------



## larry81

webber22 said:


> That's funny Larry. A lot of good comments after the articles, like this one:
> 
> _*More fortunes are made during the tough times than the easy times*_


Absolutely, this is one of the reason i always keep cash on the sideline.


----------



## Belguy

The trick is in knowing when to put that cash to work!! It's called 'market timing' and very few investors know how to do it well. Very often, they just remain in cash long after the train has left the station!! The markets, more often than not, are unpredictable making forecasting of what they will do and when difficult at best.

One solution might be to 'buy low' but not necessarily try to buy at the lowest point, whenever and whatever that is!!


----------



## KaeJS

I can hear *T.Gal* now...

"Buy in tranches, buy in tranches."


----------



## fatcat

> More fortunes are made during the tough times than the easy times


i learned that when i watched "kelly's heroes" ...


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> The trick is in knowing when to put that cash to work!! It's called 'market timing' and very few investors know how to do it well. Very often, they just remain in cash long after the train has left the station!! The markets, more often than not, are unpredictable making forecasting of what they will do and when difficult at best.
> 
> One solution might be to 'buy low' but not necessarily try to buy at the lowest point, whenever and whatever that is!!


Timing "The market" is next to impossible

Timing "Specific stock" is possible


----------



## larry81

*Leaders in Greece Agree to Form a New Government*



> After crisis talks on Sunday night, Prime Minister George Papandreou and the Greek opposition leader agreed to create a new unity government that will not be led by Mr. Papandreou, according to a statement released Sunday night by the Greek president, who mediated the talks.


http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/07/world/europe/pressure-mounts-on-greek-premier-to-resign.html

Not sure how the market will react monday morning but positive imho.


----------



## doctrine

No one can predict the future, but you can see the past. Royal Bank is selling for prices not seen since late 2005, and the dividend is 60% higher with similarly much higher sales and profits. 

It doesn't take market timing to figure out that's a good deal - it's been on sale for a while now. Unless you think the whole economy is coming down, in which case you shouldn't be buying stocks.


----------



## Belguy

Well, in that case, I guess that I shouldn't be buying stocks!!!

I wouldn't want to bet the house on the health of the global economy being all that great going forward.

But, heh, you never know!! Maybe the years ahead will be boom times but it's just not looking that way from today's vantage point.

However, stocks should muddle along with the indexes returning 6 per cent or so annually on average.


----------



## kcowan

belguy
It is a safe bet that you will never buy individual stocks. Remember last year when you asked for recommendations for good dividend-paying stocks on FWF, then started preaching buying and holding indices.

You have to eventually contribute to these forums. Repeating your philosophy over and over will not get you the reinforcement that you are craving.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> I guess that I shouldn't be buying stocks!!!


YES AND YES !

Also Belguy, do you enjoy a pension ?


----------



## KaeJS

MoMoney said:


> With the exception of Korea, if someone had told me that this was a list of the bottom 10 countries based on averaged hours worked I wouldn't have batted an eye.


Isn't it about productivity, anyway?

I mean... who cares how many "hours" they work. What are they actually getting in done in those hours?

I mean, I can work 8 hours and do jack all, or i can work 4 hours and be a superstar.


----------



## larry81

Darius said:


> Wow. Lots of ignorant comments in this thread. Some borderline stuff too, with another poster named Larry generalizing Greek women as "Hairy".


Hey that's me !

Darius, you can spin it anyway you want Greece is a welfare state by all definition.

Huge government, huge unions, generous government pensions system, limited work hours/week, even the complimentary pm nap !

ps: no offense to the three greek citizens who still have a working internet acces.


----------



## humble_pie

'" You might just as well say," added the Dormouse, who seemed to be talking in his sleep, that "I breathe when I sleep" is the same thing as "I sleep when I breathe!' "












following this, the Mad Hatter handed round plates of Strawberry Sandwiches and everyone, except the Dormouse, helped themselves to large quantities.

"more tea, anyone," asked the March Hare.

suddenly the Dormouse began talking in his sleep again.

" The trick is in knowing when to put that cash to work!! " mumbled the Dormouse.

" It's called 'market timing' and very few investors know how to do it well. Very often, they just remain in cash long after the train has left the station!! "

" Silence ! " shouted the Mad Hatter.

but on the Dormouse warbled, in his trademark singsong voice. " The markets, more often than not, are unpredictable ... making ... forecasting ... "

instantly the March Hare picked up the Dormouse and began stuffing him into the now-empty teapot.

" watch out, mind his nose, he has to breathe " said Alice in alarm, as they pushed the last of the Dormouse in & squashed down the lid.

" one more word from you, Young Lady, & we'll lock you up in the chicken coop," warned the Mad Hatter.

this piece of rudeness was more than Alice could bear; she got up in great disgust and walked off.


----------



## Belguy

To humble pie: Whatever!!!

And to Keith, I wasn't even aware that I was craving reinforcement.

In fact, come to think of it, I don't give a rat's a**!!!

Just for the record, I do own shares of 3M which I have held for quite a number of years now--so there!!!
I receive the dividend cheques to prove it!!

Lots of policemen on this forum though.

Lots of policemen on this forum though.

Yeh, come to think of it, maybe I am too repetitive.

I said, maybe I am too repetitive.

Am I being rude?


----------



## KaeJS

Futures up 24 pts.

Why? 

I don't see any positive news.

I'm not complaining, but seriously.... why?
They better not do a typical Future 180 and be red in the morning.


----------



## KaeJS

Nasdaq and S&P future jumped a little, too.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> Lots of policemen on this forum though.


I am the government pension police, do you have one !!??


----------



## KaeJS

KaeJS said:


> Futures up 24 pts.
> 
> They better not do a typical Future 180 and be red in the morning.


And now they are -20.

OF COURSE.


----------



## Belguy

I am starting to think the unthinkable (for me) and considering liquidating some of my positions (selling low! ) and moving to cash. I just don't like the way that this European mess is developing and, if any panic takes hold, it will surely spread across the Atlantic P.D.Q.

In hindsight, I should have begun this process much earlier and may very well end up regretting it by doing it at this point but, by now, I've pretty much seen and heard enough and so, let the selling begin!!!

I just think that the situation in Europe has every chance of becoming much worse and, potentially in a hurry.

For me to sell in a panic amounts almost to a change in my religion. I have always been a buy-and-holder and it has served me reasonably well over the years, but, this time, it does seem to be different.

I am not looking for any reinforcement here, but am simply saying that I am going to sell some of my positions and move more to cash at least until we get greater clarity out of Europe.

It's called 'preservation of capital'.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> I am starting to think the unthinkable (for me) and considering liquidating some of my positions (selling low! ) and moving to cash. I just don't like the way that this European mess is developing and, if any panic takes hold, it will surely spread across the Atlantic P.D.Q.
> 
> In hindsight, I should have begun this process much earlier and may very well end up regretting it by doing it at this point but, by now, I've pretty much seen and heard enough and so, let the selling begin!!!
> 
> I just think that the situation in Europe has every chance of becoming much worse and, potentially in a hurry.
> 
> For me to sell in a panic amounts almost to a change in my religion. I have always been a buy-and-holder and it has served me reasonably well over the years, but, this time, it does seem to be different.
> 
> I am not looking for any reinforcement here, but am simply saying that I am going to sell some of my positions and move more to cash at least until we get greater clarity out of Europe.
> 
> It's called 'preservation of capital'.


Please just do it and stop whining

You know that the market will rally the second you hit the SELL button.


----------



## ddkay

Why sell side (this counts G&Ms "The Buy Side" section thrown together for frazzled retail investors) is mostly useless... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203804204577016160354571908.html


----------



## gibor365

Found pretty interesting website, a lot of tecnical info for research and stock recommendations (it's free). Anyone familiar with it?

http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/SU.TO


----------



## Homerhomer

Belguy said:


> but am simply saying that I am going to sell some of my positions and move more to cash at least until we get greater clarity out of Europe.
> 
> It's called 'preservation of capital'.


Until now it was called timing the market, it is now called preservation of capital.

You should consider a career in politics, you would fit in great.


----------



## larry81

Enough is enough for me, the guy was banned from 50plus forum, was pretty much lynched on FWF and now is doing the same stuff here. If at least he was funny...


----------



## kcowan

> A few years ago, Prakash Loungani of the IMF looked at the accuracy of short-term economic growth forecasts by industry experts across a range of countries. Sixty recessions occurred in the countries he studied during the period covered by the forecasts. A grand total of two of those 60 were predicted by forecasters a year before they happened—which means the other 58 took economists by surprise. Two-thirds of all recessions remained unpredicted by April of the year in which they occurred. “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,” Loungani concluded.
> 
> So don’t put too much credence in predictions either of a double-dip recession or of an economic recovery in the U.S. over the next 18 months. We just don’t know. Pretty much the only safe bet is that something will happen.


Source
So take steps with your portfolio at you own risk. Don't look for anyone else to reinforce what you decided to do!

(And if you have a couch potato portfolio, don't hold any gold or 3M!)


----------



## Belguy

I wasn't aware that I was EVER banned from ANY website!! I left the 50 Plus forum when it was shut down by the administrators of that forum. I left other websites of my own volition.

Thankfully, those who don't appreciate my submissions can add me to their 'ignore' list. Please do this so that we will no longer have to listen to your whining!!

The 'ignore' tool is great for those who choose to use it. Be my guest!!! I have just added larry81 and kkowan to mine which now contains eight names.

By the way, 'Couch Potato' investors are not prohibited from owning any given investment. For me. I use broad-based ETF's for my core holdings but also hold the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund and a 'few' 3M shares which I have held for many years now.

Why do I have to defend myself at every turn from the forum police and where did they get their authority anyway?

New resolution: As of today, I plan to completely ignore all further personal attacks and will not be responding to them. It is one thing to be critical in general. That is fair play. However, to be personal about it, I believe, crosses the line and is, I believe, against forum rules.

Over and out!!


----------



## Homerhomer

larry81 said:


> Enough is enough for me, ..


Wasn't even aware we could do that, thanks for showing me the option and I did the same thing.


----------



## fatcat

aaah, delightful, the nuclear option, count me in ....


----------



## Argonaut

Larry's lucky 777th post and fatcat's 500th post are ignoring Belguy, haha.

Back to the markets; gold is good.


----------



## fatcat

> Back to the markets; gold is good.


 and i was looking at both goldcorp and abx at 44 ... i just knew they were buys but it isn't in the plan so i passed ... i need a new plan


----------



## kcowan

Yes I think just focus on the markets and no longer deal with personal foibles. It never did any good anyway. 

(I was just concerned that newcomers might follow his advice even though he was not following it himself.)


----------



## fatcat

> Yes I think just focus on the markets and no longer deal with personal foibles. It never did any good anyway.
> 
> (I was just concerned that newcomers might follow his advice even though he was not following it himself.)


i was under the impression that belguy only had 2 kinds of advice: 1) buy hold and prosper and 2) panic


----------



## gibor365

fatcat said:


> i was under the impression that belguy only had 2 kinds of advice: 1) buy hold and prosper and 2) panic


I'm not ignoring Belguy...i like to read his posts 

Markets finished in green today....lokks like he started selling at afternoon?!

But the truth is , I don't understand why he's not selling his index ETFs on the swing up and not buying high-yield dividend champions


----------



## sags

I enjoy Belguy's comparisons of ETFs, and believe he may be one of the most well informed forum members on that specific topic, so I hope he continues to post.


----------



## ddkay

I enjoyed Belguys posts, we need some balancing views


----------



## sags

I have read here and other websites, and heard on the financial news, that due to their small GDP numbers, Greece is a non significant event on it's own merit. The worry is that the contagion will spread to Italy, France and so on.

But.............there are over 1.5 Quadrillion dollars in derivatives loose the world, in an unregulated sector, and nobody knows how they are all tied together or who all the different counterparties are. How much of those derivatives are attached to Greek debt? Apparently nobody knows, and the leaders of the G20 don't want to find out the hard way.

Maybe Greece goes down..........and some banks, pension funds, insurance companies, corporations stashing cash in derivatives, and hedge funds in their own country go with them?

It is reminiscent of the derivatives in the subprime mortgage fiasco, where nobody full appreciated what the final impact was going to be, when home prices in a few areas first started to decline.


----------



## Abha

I like seeing how many emoticons Belguy uses in his posts. Plus I find the disagreements he has with various members of this forum extremely fascinating.

Sometimes when I take a break, I check in here to see who's fighting with who.


----------



## ddkay

IMO China will side with Iran on this nuclear warhead issue. Western economies vs China, let's go!

Iran has the world's 4th largest oil reserves, so expect us to peacekeep and instill some democracy over there soon. High oil prices will ruin Europe, already in a recession.


----------



## webber22

I was just talking with Belguy through telepathy ......... I sent out a   and he sent back a  so he must still be under the bed


----------



## Jungle

Transalta caught manipulating power to create shortage and increase prices:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/TransAlta+Corp+admits+market+manipulation/5671487/story.html


----------



## ddkay

CoD MW3, buy ATVI!!


----------



## KaeJS

^ That seriously might not even be a _bad_ idea.

But I think its priced in already. Look at the chart...


----------



## Jungle

Buying COD MW3 as a gift for someone tomorrow. Last year, Black Ops was the best selling game of all time.


----------



## sags

Pleeeezzzeeee............no more zombies...............


----------



## Abha

I still can't get the Zombie trophies on the PS3. Very aggravating!


----------



## gibor365

Abha said:


> I still can't get the Zombie trophies on the PS3. Very aggravating!


COD online mode is the best in this industry


----------



## ddkay

Berlusconi wins his vote but without an absolute majority this means more delays and the worst possible outcome http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ea9fcdfa-09ed-11e1-8d46-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1d1hWRpM5


----------



## ddkay

Nice pop on ATVI this morning but faded quickly


----------



## Dibs

New news on the collateral damage caused by the Euro crisis talks:

Euro crisis holds up panda loan


----------



## Jon_Snow

Sorry, but nothing beats Elder Scrolls 5 for me this year... I'll take sword swinging and spellcasting over modern firearms anyday.


----------



## Darius

Rommel said:


> I went to your site for the hours worked and was unable to find information for the year 2010 (the most current data in the chart is 2008) nor could I find the exact numbers posted. I did find similar numbers but my point is ahead.


Goto
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=CSP2010

1. Expand "Labour" in the left hand pane
2. Expand "Labour Force Statistics"
3. Click on hours worked
4. Click on average annual hours worked per worker
5. sort on 2010



> I did some further analysis and found out the following:


I never implied that they were the most efficient workers. My point was that contrary to what was being implied by Gibor (and hence my description of him as a "halfwit") Greeks, in general, are not a lazy work force. The OECD statistics show this. I also called him a "halfwit" because he conceded that he believes that Greece is the root cause of the state of the world economy.


----------



## marina628

Belguy
Do not sell anything your index funds will recover nicely in the new year.Trust me I know everything


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> Goto
> 
> I never implied that they were the most efficient workers. .


You said that won't discuss this topic anymore.... Now you behave like Greece premier 

P.S. always when some of those miserable contries screws up, their advocates searching all forums on the Web and trying to defend  (the same was when Georgia attacked Russian territories hoping on US help, when Arab countries attack or provoke Israel etc...etc...)


----------



## Darius

Toronto.gal said:


> *Darius:* you joined in 2010 & have used 2 out of your 5 posts to tell us how ignorant we are about Greece, but there are plenty other threads here that will show you that we are not all that dense....just ignore gibor & enjoy this great forum.


T.Gal, my comments were mainly directed at Gibor. I never meant to give the impression that I was implying the readers were ignorant. Where did I say that you are all ignorant and you are all dense? Why are you singling me out for responding to ignorant comments regarding hairy Greek women and the lazy Greek worker.

I have no interest in continuing. Im out.


----------



## Belguy

Thanks, marina and thanks for the supportive words from others and I haven't sold anything so far. I guess that I needed a little reinforcement. My apologies for anyone that I may have offended in the past whenever I got out of line--especially with the generalized name calling. However, I did try to not make it personal or hurtful towards any individual with any of my posts. After all, we're all in this together!!


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> I have no interest in continuing. Im out.


For how long?!  Let's set "referendum" 

But seriously, it's time for you to jump to other forums


----------



## gibor365

marina628 said:


> Belguy
> Do not sell anything your index funds will recover nicely in the new year.Trust me I know everything


You bet


----------



## ddkay

She doesn't look hairy to me http://www.bloomberg.com/video/79550304/










It's really best to stop making blanket statements


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> Now we have proof that you are a half wit. Yah Im a paid advocate posting on a Canadian money forum in order to convince the masses. Countering geniuses like you gibor requires paid advocates. Where are you from Gibor?


I was right!!! You were out for 4 minutes! 

Did I say something about "paid"?! You buddy brought it out!

P.S. I'm not from any Balkan country or your "best friend" Turkey lol
If you so itelligent you could've understand from my nick name...


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> She doesn't look hairy to me http://www.bloomberg.com/video/79550304/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's really best to stop making blanket statements


How do you know?! I don't thiml larry81 meant that they have beards


----------



## Darius

gibor said:


> I was right!!! You were out for 4 minutes!
> 
> Did I say something about "paid"?! You buddy brought it out!


Sorry I couldnt resist. You call the southern european countries "Lazy". Where are you from Gibor?


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> She doesn't look hairy to me


I don't know about hairness, but Greece (together with malta) is the fattest country in Europe 


http://www.forbes.com/2007/02/07/worlds-fattest-countries-forbeslife-cx_ls_0208worldfat_2.html


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> Sorry I couldnt resist. You call the southern european countries "Lazy". Where are you from Gibor?


They don't promise if you can't keep 
I'm from Mississauga . You?!


----------



## Darius

gibor said:


> They don't promise if you can't keep
> I'm from Mississauga . You?!


Israel


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> Israel


He-he...than why do you ask from which country I am ?!


----------



## ddkay

Woman Reportedly Burns Down House After Facebook Un-Friending

Buy gold!


----------



## Belguy

Perhaps it is time for the moderator to come down hard on all of the bullying and personal attacks on this forum. I have learned my own lesson to desist from the name calling even though my critical comments were always of a more general nature and not directed at any one individual.

The ONLY policeman here should be the moderator!! If we all kept our comments civil, then maybe nobody would have to use the 'ignore' button!!

Perhaps it's time to move above the fray (noise/quarrel/brawl/fight/conflict)!!


----------



## Darius

gibor said:


> He-he...than why do you ask from which country I am ?!


Just wanted confirmation.

Being from Israel, with an attrocious human rights record, and the recipient of trillions of dollars in US aid, you shouldnt be making fun of anyone. If good ol uncle sam wasnt funding the Israeli military and if your American bodyguard was not constantly using its veto in the security council Israel would not be much of a country today.


----------



## ddkay

I'm seeing fights break out everywhere I turn.. it's not just here. The really dramatic stuff is happening on Twitter, bulls bullying bears, bears bullying bulls, in extreme cases become self-destructive (alcohol -> hospital -> sick of the financial industry, quit job). No one knows what the hell is going on. Sign of the times.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> She doesn't look hairy to me http://www.bloomberg.com/video/79550304/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's really best to stop making blanket statements


thanks for your anecdotal evidence, do you want me to post pictures of hairy women armpits as proof !!!


----------



## Addy

larry81 said:


> thanks for your anecdotal evidence, do you want me to post pictures of hairy women armpits as proof !!!


As much as I love the freedom of unshaven pits, this isn't a fetish forum so, no thanks!


----------



## ddkay

We should have bred out hairy people by now! Buy gold!


----------



## Belguy

Maybe we can only HOPE for more civility on this forum. When you are hanging out in a tough neighbourhood, I guess that you have to be tough yourself and not be thin-skinned when someone hurls a smoke bomb your way.

I have found the personal attacks to be hurtful at times but perhaps they were meant to be.


----------



## leoc2

ddkay said:


>


Is that T Gal's picture? WoW


----------



## ddkay

No she is a Greece PA.SO.K MP, Eva Kaili

My corner store ran out of milk so I bought more gold. The latest ES pattern seems to be fade into/during EU session and climb during US session. SPX cash seems to be backtesting 200DMA at 1273. Oils at $97, gold at $1785.


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> Just wanted confirmation.
> 
> Being from Israel, with an attrocious human rights record, and the recipient of trillions of dollars in US aid, you shouldnt be making fun of anyone. If good ol uncle sam wasnt funding the Israeli military and if your American bodyguard was not constantly using its veto in the security council Israel would not be much of a country today.


 Human rights don't work with terrorists and suicide bombers, this is why we left Israel 12 years ago and moved to Canada , we just don't want to get killed by some fanatics...
And despite enemies all around, Israel is managing pretty high living standard comparing to same Greece, because they are not lazy  
Just compare High Tech in Israel and Greece.... this is the same like compare hockey in Canada and Nigeria


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> My corner store ran out of milk so I bought more gold. The latest ES pattern seems to be fade into/during EU session and climb during US session. SPX cash seems to be backtesting 200DMA at 1273. Oils at $97, gold at $1785.


ddkay. for gold play what do you buy? CGL, HBU, GLD?

I'm kicking myself that sold HBU too soon, grabbed just 6% gain 

BTW, I wanted to lock some small gains for G.TO and wanted to place sell with stop limit.... CIBC Investor Edge rejected with reason that my quote is less than lot (I undestand its 100 shares). is it common for discount brokareges?


----------



## Lephturn

gibor said:


> ddkay. for gold play what do you buy? CGL, HBU, GLD?
> 
> I'm kicking myself that sold HBU too soon, grabbed just 6% gain
> 
> BTW, I wanted to lock some small gains for G.TO and wanted to place sell with stop limit.... CIBC Investor Edge rejected with reason that my quote is less than lot (I undestand its 100 shares). is it common for discount brokareges?


I'd say that's just a bad brokerage. I'll have to go back and check, but I've done partial lots with stop limits before at both OX and RBC-DI I believe.


----------



## MoMoney

Ok.... back to the topic. Anybody have thoughts on South America? Namely Brazil?


----------



## gibor365

Darius said:


> Actually, dear halfwit, both countries have a very similar per capita GDP:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
> 
> You can thank the US for its yearly billions and billions of dollars in hand outs or else you would have nothing but camels and desert to brag about. Of course you are typically arrogant about this, living in a country that engages in murderous occupation and apartheid probably tends to give you a sense of superiority over others.


You showed yourself as a liar (like you favorite prime-minister)...you said that "ouf of here" and continue publish your BS.... go and support greece, terrorists etc to some hockey forum... 
P.S Israel from desert created garden, and you friends doing opposite....

I'm proud to be Canadian as Harper is supporting Israel and not terrorists!


----------



## gibor365

MoMoney said:


> Ok.... back to the topic. Anybody have thoughts on South America? Namely Brazil?


Do you mean if Brasilian woman are hairy?!


----------



## jcgd

My god, where is the bloody report post button? Take this garbage outta here. This thread is for market forecasts.


----------



## ddkay

If I could choose to live anywhere else in the world it would be Brazil. Brazil is going places. Inflation targets are higher than here though at 4.5% (BoC 2%), some items can cost 2-3x as much, especially imports.

As far as individual names I like SBS, they are the world's third largest water utility, state owned and servicing Sao Paulo: http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Companhia_de_Saneamento_Básico_do_Estado_de_São_Paulo

To me the EWZ ETF is more of a China growth story/commodity play (might as well invest here for that), its heavily weighted in basic material names like VALE and PBR.

You can also check out EWZS small caps weighted ETF with industrials, consumers, and financials for a domestic growth opportunity.


----------



## gibor365

ABV looks good


----------



## Causalien

Brasil is the only country where industrial machine orders are increasing and have been increasing in the past 4 years. On top of that, their demographics is young, and the social safety. net is not established. So their industries don't suffer the way older more matured countries suffer. There certainly won't be any baby boomer retirement problem in the next 30 years. And when time comes for their boom generation to retire. Western socirties would've gotten through their boomer problems.

I've been waiting for a right price to enter EWZ


----------



## Sampson

ddkay said:


> If I could choose to live anywhere else in the world it would be Brazil.


Funny, all the Brazilians I know think otherwise. Certainly their economy is booming, but there are ALOT of reasons to not be there.


----------



## gibor365

Sampson said:


> Funny, all the Brazilians I know think otherwise. Certainly their economy is booming, but there are ALOT of reasons to not be there.


There is Russian saying that "on other shore grass always more green"


----------



## ddkay

I have some Brazilian contacts, some residents, some there for business. Like always it really depends where you live. Rio has some really nice spots, but you have to watch your back and try not to be to flashy in tourist areas like Copacabana. And of course, the slums. Some police are corrupt and the prisons are overcrowded. They used to separate university educated prisoners from the regulars to avoid cross-contamination (prison system = university of crime), that led to an increase in first year enrollments by gang members, so they stopped that. These are all functions of inequality and low incomes, growing pains for a developing country... I'm in my early 20s so Brazil is still on my list of places to retire for now.


----------



## Eder

You would have to be nuts to invest anywhere that has no real laws (Brazil fits in here). Outside of Canada, USA, Europe there is no recourse. Look at all the fools burnt by investments in Mexico.

I might live in Brazil but I wouldn't invest 1 cent in corrupt republics like that.


----------



## larry81

Eder said:


> You would have to be nuts to invest anywhere that has no real laws (Brazil fits in here). Outside of Canada, USA, Europe there is no recourse. Look at all the fools burnt by investments in Mexico.
> 
> I might live in Brazil but I wouldn't invest 1 cent in corrupt republics like that.


Imagine all the weirdos who bought 1B of 100y mexican bonds...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...onds-as-benchmark-treasury-yields-tumble.html


----------



## gibor365

Eder said:


> You would have to be nuts to invest anywhere that has no real laws (Brazil fits in here). Outside of Canada, USA, Europe there is no recourse.


Eder, and what about AUS and NZ?! 
Unlike ddkay, I'd like to retire over there, in small village in Rockies or Alps.

To Brazil I wouldn't like to go even for business trip....


----------



## ddkay

Yeah no one likes to talk about the Mexican stock market rally from the 2009 bottom


----------



## ddkay

Speaking of corrupt republics. Anybody know where MF Global's clients money went?


----------



## ddkay

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertl...-6-3-billion-trade-without-informing-clients/



> After an intense day of investigation, I have just discovered that a CFTC rule(1.29) allowed Jon Corzine’s MF Global to use the margin and cash in customers heretofore segregated accounts to amass a risky $6.3 billion investment in European sovereign debt that backfired. Nor did Corzine have the obligation to inform any of these customers he was gambling with their money. Or that he was intending to keep all the profits for himself and his troubled firm. Nothing for the customers.
> 
> The language of Rule1.29 allows “The investment of customer funds in instruments described in 1.29 shall not prevent the futures commission merchant (MF Global) or clearing organization so investing such funds and retaining as its own any increment or interest resulting therefrom.” Increment refers to any trading profits or gains.
> 
> The criminal division of the Justice Department in New York — as well as the SEC and the CFTC and members of Congress– are investigating whether any laws were violated and if so, whether any criminal charges can be brought. As of 3pm today, there has been no sign of the missing $633 million. My sources believe it was probably grabbed by the institutions that made the margin calls on MF Global as the European bonds sank in value.
> 
> This shocking loophole, which is available to all commodity traders, whether giant ones like Goldman Sachs or members of commodity exchanges, means that huge risks are being taken with money that does not belong to the trading firms– without the customers having any idea of the danger they are in. As Andy Abraham, a futures trader in Israel put it to me today; “this means they can take segregated funds and leverage them to kingdom come. It means nothing is safe.”
> 
> This rule, which has been in effect since 1974, is shocking and highly irregular since it allows any futures dealer to use customers money for its own selfish purposes– and never inform its customers it is doing so. What’s even more unfair is that the dealer(MF Global) gets to keep all the income and the trading profits, if any from a transaction that uses other people’s money– not its own house capital. That is unless some prior arrangement about sharing profits was made privately beforehand with the client. None of the MF Global clients I’ve spoken to today had the foggiest notion about this arrangement– which at minimum is outrageously unfair to the rule that the customer comes first. All losses must be made up by the dealer, which in this case may be totally impossible.
> 
> As a federal government official explained to me today; “certain kinds of transactions don’t have to be communicated to the customer.” So Andy Abraham and dozens of others were left completely in the dark about how their money was being used. They had no idea rule 1.29 existed and that the FCM, MF Global “gets all the income and all the profits, and bears the losses which have to be made up in the customer’s account,” according to this government official.
> 
> So, it may be that the $633 million that is missing from MF Global’s customer accounts is money MF Global lost when it got whacked by margin calls on its stupendously risky bet on French and German bonds without any hedge. As Mf Global was under no obligation to inform customers their money was being risked on behalf of MF Global, this explains the mystery and outrage by investors and traders in Israel, Switzerland and across the US.
> 
> CFTC rules are a bit of sleight of hand. Rule 1.20 states very firmly that “all customer funds shall be separately accounted for and segregated as belonging to commission or option customers.” Then, rule 1.25 lists all the acceptable investments that can be made, including foreign sovereign securities.
> 
> But, given the dangers of default in Europe, the CFTC was trying to exclude the ability to invest in certain risky securities like sovereign debt., To try and block this rule change, Corzine met with CFTC officials 10 times in the last year or so, according to the Sunlight Foundation in Washington, D.C., which is carefully monitoring all the proposed rule changes in the Dodd-Frank legislation, and making sure that all the infightimng by lobbyists for finance and banks is made totally transparent.
> 
> Corzine also wrote a letter to the CFTC in December 2010 arguing that to disallow commingling for the purchase of foreign bonds “will eliminate a liquid, secure, profitable and necessary category of investment.”
> 
> Famous Last Words.


----------



## KaeJS

Fannie Mae Loss Widens, Asks Taxpayers For $7.8B

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=142160577


----------



## sags

It is hard to imagine that some people argue the financial industry needs no regulation at all..............and manage to keep a straight face when doing so.


----------



## ddkay

Game over Italy BTP/BUND spread @ 501 bp, 10Y BTP yield @ 6.821%


----------



## ddkay

Where there is smoke there is usually fire


----------



## sags

The historical rate on Italian bonds is 4.5%. An increase of 2% means they have to cut expenses by 50 Billion dollars.........just to pay the increased interest charges.

They are approaching 2.5%...they can't cut that deep without self destructing.


----------



## ddkay

New record ***Spread BTP/Bund 513bps***

Italian bond yield curve flattening, could soon invert: 2yr 6.77 pct, 3yr 7.12 pct, 5yr 7.14 pct, 10 year 6.9 pct

LCH Clearnet's higher margin requirement on Italian debt triggered: http://www.scribd.com/doc/72124217/LCH-BTP

PS there's an Italian BTP auction tomorrow. Can the market go bidless? Wait and see!


----------



## ddkay

German Bund/French OAT spread widening too now @ 136 bp


----------



## ddkay

Ita 10Y BTPs now @ 7.00% !


----------



## sags

Sleep be darned.........Gotta go to Bloomberg live.......history in the making.


----------



## dogcom

Italy only has the 4th biggest bond market in the world so no need to lose sleep here.

It is all just noise and the wall of worry that stocks need to climb. Over the past 60 years stocks have done well and it is business as usual. Look at the math and so on and don't lose sleep over it because after a hard bloody beat down stocks will recover in 10 years or more at least you would hope so.


----------



## Jungle

At least my boys at Enbridge are working hard for me: earnings beats estimates. Keep up the good work boys, _preciate'_ it.


----------



## ddkay

Re Italy has two options, as we all know by now because of their size a bailout isn't possible. They can either continue with 2-3x the cost of previous debt with mega austerity and / or demand 15-20% bondholder haircuts.


----------



## KaeJS

You know what this means?

Bargains!


----------



## ddkay

Selling GLD buying USD

Green gold baby


----------



## Jon_Snow

Days like today are EXACTLY why I converted 60% of my portfolio (and my wife's) to cash before I came down to Mexico. I wanted to wash my hands of the daily market yo-yo's and relax for 3 weeks.... and yet here I am on my patio with the sun rising over the Sea of Cortez, my Slingbox streaming BNN and CNBC to my laptop, trying decide if I want to buy into this dip... but could this be merely the first stage of a steep, sustained market slide?


----------



## ddkay

Unplug your computer and talk to us in 3 weeks


----------



## Jon_Snow

My wife isn't impressed with my act thus far... I promised that I wouldn't do this on our holiday. But I NEED to know what is happening... 

Divorce likely.


----------



## andrewf

Jon_Snow said:


> Days like today are EXACTLY why I converted 60% of my portfolio (and my wife's) to cash before I came down to Mexico. I wanted to wash my hands of the daily market yo-yo's and relax for 3 weeks.... and yet here I am on my patio with the sun rising over the Sea of Cortez, my Slingbox streaming BNN and CNBC to my laptop, trying decide if I want to buy into this dip... but could this be merely the first stage of a steep, sustained market slide?


Do you think this is close to being resolved? I think we're still approaching the climax.


----------



## ddkay

Corrupt republics:

11:08 (Dow Jones) With the Ontario Securities Commission set to hold hearings on Maple's bid for TMX (X.T) next month, at least some of the concerns will likely focus on the company's listing business and CDS, Canada's clearing house. Submissions ahead of the hearing are on OSC's web site, and an investor-advocacy group says the deal shouldn't be approved unless X.T. addresses the inherent conflict of interest of wooing new listings to boost revenue while also policing Toronto Stock Exchange issuers. Also, the committee comprised of brokerage executives worries that turning CDS into a profit center could leave it open to abuse by members of Maple--comprised of some of Canada's biggest banks and pension funds. Reps for X.T and Maple couldn't immediately be reached. ( [email protected])


----------



## Eder

ddkay said:


> Yeah no one likes to talk about the Mexican stock market rally from the 2009 bottom


I have experience dealing with Mexican real estate laws. Trust me you have no rights, no recourse,bend over and like it. If you want to deal with thieves I'd rather deal with Canadian thieves.

Anyone pissed at our Canadian bureaucracy need only go try do business in Mexico. You'll start sending Christmas cards to capital hill.


----------



## ddkay

Crude is up $3.3 in the last 2 hours... $97.84, we were at $94.54 @ 10AM. 

Bidding 5.20 for 10 2014 $37P contracts on USO. This is NOT a store of wealth, its going to $15/bbl within the next 3 years, all output cutting loser OPEC nations will go down with it.


----------



## ddkay

I would probably never buy real estate in Mexico either, I'm not familiar with any towns there.. but in Brazil, neighbourhoods like Lagoa and Leblon, are top notch. Many 1%ers live here. The resident I talk to there is an expat, moved back from NYC and will never leave as long as the economy stays afloat. The only downside is you have to learn Portuguese, not as many people speak English as they do in Europe.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The Greek jokes did go a little too far IMO & I did suggest to end those as I had sensed Darius' extreme rage, but some didn't listen & gave room for a lot of subsequent unpleasant comments. 

The off-topic & anti-Israel rhetoric was simply absurd, immature & so typical of those who, when angry, like to blame even earthquakes on the tiny strip of Israel & its mere 7 million citizens. Equally silly is to join, or in this case rejoin a forum, not to contribute in any meaningful way, but to simply make the forum unpleasant.


----------



## Toronto.gal

ddkay said:


> The only downside is you have to learn Portuguese...


Why a problem?  You should learn it if you want to live there.

It's not like you're a senior citizen already; you said you're in your early 20's and plan to retire there, so start learning the language now! If you were to spend a little in this like you do with your fab. charts, you'll be a polyglot by your retirement date. 

I invest & would vacation in Brazil, but I would not retire there nor in Mexico; I have other places in mind that are top secret for now. 

By the way, there are top notch neighborhoods just about anywhere, including Greece & Israel.


----------



## gibor365

[email protected], should've seel G.TO at noon at 54.7....but unfortunatelly we had fire drill and i missed down trend  as a result aold 53.7, small gain 2.2% plus some small dividends


----------



## ddkay

In 40 years, assuming we still have a globalised society, English should be more prevalent in EMs. The last decade of capital inflows and credit expansion have really helped to improve education + health + infrastructure there. They need a bit more time to match our current living standards. These countries, being net creditors, stand to benefit the most from our Western economies (hopefully slow) decline.

Re our market, we're back at that intermediate-term uptrend line (yellow below) we hit last Tuesday and Wednesday, an important level for buy support IMO.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Re our market, we're back at that intermediate-term uptrend line (yellow below) we hit last Tuesday and Wednesday, an important level for buy support IMO.
> 
> 
> doing some buying?


----------



## ddkay

Nah, not with 2-30y ITA bond yields over 7% and an auction tomorrow morning. Maybe someone else has guts to do that again. I'll begin shorting when the trendline breaks (under 1222).


----------



## ddkay

Hah momo stocks. GMCR posted earnings and lost 30% in 2 MINUTES! $67 -> $46


----------



## ddkay

Cisco beats EPS and Rev up 1-2% AHs


----------



## ddkay

I'm getting bored of Greece and Italy, let's move on to France please


----------



## Causalien

Not yet. The Vatican haven't played their card by buying out Italy with their gold yet.


----------



## Homerhomer

And the biggest municipal bankruptcy in the US history is just happening, more to follow ;-)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ipal-bankruptcy-in-us-history/article2231244/


----------



## Belguy

B of America is predicting Bank of Canada will be lowering interest rate to .25% in 2012.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde is predicting a "lost decade" if Europe does not get it's act together--and fast!!

Cramer's dividend paying stock picks:

WIN Windstream
SLRC Solar Capital
ETP Energy Transfer Partners
AEP American Electric
SNY Sanofi


----------



## KaeJS

Reading this forum makes me want to sell everything.


----------



## Belguy

I feel the same way about wanting to sell everything but I also understand that it is a bit late to be thinking about that now. That train left the station a few months back. Pretty much the only thing that you can do now is to switch your TV over to the Cartoon Network and not listen to any of the gloomy financial news that is out there.

When all is said and done, the sun will continue to rise in the mornings--at least until Iran gets the bomb!!


----------



## ddkay

haha, Iran is a distraction and another excuse to ramp up oil prices. Ignore it, they aren't making bombs.


----------



## KaeJS

Train didn't leave the station for me. I've done fairly well this year.


----------



## ddkay

h/t Michael McDonough


----------



## ucs456

*Cash - Where to invest*

Can anyone give me advise where to park my cash while I am waiting for the right time to buy stocks.

Thanks


----------



## Belguy

Even in the worst of times, there are ways to make money. Here are some 30 day returns as of closing today, November 9:

AGF Global Resources: +12.11%
BMO China Equity ETF: +8.95%
BMO Junior Oil Index ETF: +21.64% 
CIBC Energy: +17.71%
Claymore BRIC: +8.76%
Claymore Broad Emerging Markets ETF: +9.02%
Claymore Global Agriculture ETF: +9.46%
Claymore Global Infrastructure ETF: +6.15%
Claymore Oil Sands Sector ETF: +13.11%
Claymore Global Mining ETF: +8.83%
iShares China Index: +17.22%
iShares Brazil Index: +9.64%
iShares Russell 2000 Index: +9.27%
iShares Capped Energy Index: +11.84%
iShares TSX SmallCap Index: +10.60%

These may not be among the greatest of times to be an investor, but there have still been ways to get good returns over the past thirty days. Emerging markets and North American smallcaps for starters!

The glass is half full!!!


----------



## doctrine

Oil has done very well. I highly encourage anyone to buy oil stocks whenever oil drops below $80 a barrel. Who knows when that price will be seen again.


----------



## ddkay

GOP debate was mind numbing. The SP500 is going to adopt its own 999 plan by next week.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I'm still positive for the year so the temptation to flee back to the warm embrace of cash is tempting.


----------



## Belguy

FWIW, some 1 year returns as of October 31:

BMO Junior Oil Index ETF: +14.13%
BMO Long Corporate Bond Index ETF: +7.35%
BMO Equal Weight REIT's Index ETF: +6.17%
BMO NASDAQ 100 Index ETF: +10.99%
Claymore TSX Cdn. Dividend ETF: +5.14%
iShares Universe Bond ETF: +5.62%
iShares Real Return Bond Index ETF: +12.38%
iShares TSX Capped REIT Index: +11.77%
RBC Canadian Equity Income-D: +14.00%


----------



## Argonaut

I don't have an under-the-bed to hide, so I'm lying in my bathtub with the shower curtains drawn, holding onto my gold.


----------



## dogcom

Gold is a little overbought and I will be adding to that during this next decline here.

On stocks I own A little XTR and that is it so I suffered very little damage in the selloff which I expect to get much worse if not now then very soon in the new year. I suspect tax loss selling will now start to feed into the market which should give us a rally near year end unless the world keeps falling apart. 

The systemic risk is at the same level as the great depression and other such cycles before with the need to wash out the debt. Gold producing stocks did very well then as they will do here after they sell off with the market but be much higher down the road.

I wonder how the people who must be long always buying trusting the fiat currencies as fantastic and gold as crap will feel at the end of all this. Up until now their arguments have been crap and gold has shined and will shine until this debt thing gets settled.


----------



## sags

ddkay said:


> GOP debate was mind numbing. The SP500 is going to adopt its own 999 plan by next week.


Yea, none of them instilled any faith in their ability to lead the US.

Mitt Romney looks like a shoe-in. All he has to do is stand there and let the others commit hari-kari on live television.


----------



## sags

Thankfully.......I hope........our group of leaders looks to be ready and able to do whatever is necessary to protect our economy.

I am not a Harper or Flaherty fan........but I have to give kudos when earned.

Both have stated they wont let politics stand in the way of decisions.

Mark Carney looks calm at the BOC wheel as well.

Maybe the right people at the right time.


----------



## sags

At first blush, asian markets appeared to be tanking big time......down from 3-4%...........we will see what this night brings.


----------



## doctrine

at first glance, but asian markets didnt experience the 2-3% drop today, so they're actually just adjusting. anything more than 3-4% would probably hit though


----------



## KaeJS

I don't understand.

Why are you guys concerned with Asia and not concerned with the world futures, particularly NA futures?

This is a legitimate question.


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> B of America is predicting Bank of Canada will be lowering interest rate to .25% in 2012.
> 
> IMF chief Christine Lagarde is predicting a "lost decade" if Europe does not get it's act together--and fast!!


Keith Richards predicts bull market in 5 years.
"Markets have been moving sideways for about a decade....We’ll eventually break into a new bull market in the next 4-5 years."


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I don't understand.
> 
> Why are you guys concerned with Asia and not concerned with the world futures, particularly NA futures?
> 
> This is a legitimate question.


Exactly! Asian markets always catch up to NA ones. And futures are slightly up now.....let's hope that Thu will be better than Wed


----------



## KaeJS

I hope so, gibor. 

I lost 6.05% today. 

I have a strong tolerance for risk, but I think I need a breather after that one. Another 6% drop would make me feel kind of crappy!


----------



## Argonaut

gibor said:


> Keith Richards predicts bull market in 5 years.


Keith Richards is a precious metals bull.

The Rolling Stones - You Got the Silver



KaeJS said:


> I lost 6.05% today.


To quote Gecko, MT is a dog with fleas. And SU/CPG has overlap. Would sell two of three to cover margin, and not borrow anymore.


----------



## hboy43

dogcom said:


> I wonder how the people who must be long always buying trusting the fiat currencies as fantastic and gold as crap will feel at the end of all this. Up until now their arguments have been crap and gold has shined and will shine until this debt thing gets settled.


I don't understand the nefarious link you alude to between fiat currencies and owning stocks. When I buy a stock, I am buying plant and equipment. Sometimes I get a little fiat currency, but most often I get a net short position in fiat currency. If anything as a hedge against fiat currencies, it is better than gold.

hboy43


----------



## jcgd

dogcom said:


> Gold is a little overbought and I will be adding to that during this next decline here.
> 
> I wonder how the people who must be long always buying trusting the fiat currencies as fantastic and gold as crap will feel at the end of all this. Up until now their arguments have been crap and gold has shined and will shine until this debt thing gets settled.


When this debt thing gets settled it is the gold bugs who will lose. Hopefully they sell at the top.


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> I lost 6.05% today.
> 
> I have a strong tolerance for risk, but I think I need a breather after that one. Another 6% drop would make me feel kind of crappy!


You need to revisit your investment strategy.

a) you lost a lot in one day, way more that you should have
b) you sweat about it

Neither are an indication of a solid portfolio or a plan.


----------



## dogcom

Not against anyone buying stocks it is just all the people who would constantly say gold is crap while it has climbed from $300 until $1,900 the recent all time high. I am also against the comments of those since 2007 who say the macro risk is not important and if the bond market in the world goes to hell it is just noise and so on and the last 60 years proves everything about stocks and blah blah. I am just saying no one knows everything and every expert gets proven wrong so we need to always be on the guard when it comes to our money.

To jcgd of course gold will be hammered and so will the gold bugs once the debt mess is solved. I for one would love to get over this gold is good and we need to carry some of this heavy stuff for protection thing. The sooner we get over this crushing debt crisis the sooner we can get back to the good old days of holding stocks for 60 years.


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> To quote Gecko, MT is a dog with fleas. And SU/CPG has overlap. Would sell two of three to* cover margin, and not borrow anymore.*


I don't agree that MT is a dog with fleas. I think it is a good trading stock and bet on the economy.

SU/CPG have overlap - sure.. but CPG pays the Dividend SU doesn't provide.

As for the margin, you are correct.



Homerhomer said:


> You need to revisit your investment strategy.
> 
> a) you lost a lot in one day, way more that you should have
> b) you sweat about it
> 
> Neither are an indication of a solid portfolio or a plan.


a) I lost a lot in one day due to the margin I am playing with. If I wasn't playing with margin and actually owned everything I had, I would have lost only 2.6% yesterday.

b) I only sweat because of the margin 

I know margin is my issue, but I got a few dividend payers paying out a nice 6%+ on the August dip. My plan was to grab those dividend payers and then start paying the margin off. Well, I'm paying the margin off (slowly, obviously I can't come up with thousands of dollars in a couple months on my currently 35k/year salary) but I still get jittery when the market drops like crazy.

I don't care the stocks are worth less. I care about getting a margin call. Obviously I am taking a huge risk, but if it works out and I can pay off the margin and don't get a margin call - I will have done well.


----------



## larry81

if you play on margin, you will get burned sooner or later !


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> if you play on margin, you will get burned sooner or later !


Or make more money than those who are not.


----------



## Belguy

Canada Pension Plan investments were down 0.8% in the third quarter.

Note that if you had invested in the iShares DEX Long Term Bond Index ETF, you would have been up 9.64% over the past twelve months as of October 31 and up 11.55% over the past six months while the iShares DEX Short Term Bond Index ETF returns were 3.22% for twelve months and 3.04% for six months.

You could have averaged it out a bit by investing in the iShares DEX Universe Bond Index ETF with a twelve month return of 5.62% and a six month return of 6.22%.

It proves once again that bonds have a place in a balanced portfolio and can alleviate some of the equity losses during negative years for equities. Probably the best bet is to just buy the broadest based bond ETF like the XBB and just hold it forever aside from periodic rebalancing. 

Bonds are like a rudder to safely steer you through troubled waters.

Also, I think that Rick Perry won last night's debate.


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Also, I think that Rick Perry won last night's debate.


That guy is unbelievable.

Absolutely unbelievable.

Imagine being Rick Perry's son or daugher? !!


----------



## Belguy

Imagine him being the leader of the free world when he can't even remember the three government programs that he intends to cut if elected!!!

Also, how's your international ETF performing for you?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...tual-funds-vs-etfs-no-contest/article2232860/

A low fee managed mutual fund can still have a place in a 'Couch Potato' portfolio for investments such as smallcaps, emerging markets and other international markets. Just pick a consistently good performer among the low fee choices.


----------



## Argonaut

There's not a single fund in that chart that beat hiding in the bathtub with cash. People are paying them a lot in MER's for the privilege of losing them money. On the other hand I could throw your cash out the window and I wouldn't even charge you for it.


----------



## ddkay

Tell us which window you're throwing out of so we can take "the other side"


----------



## sags

No room on the "other side" of free money.......wall to wall bankers.

"So.......let me get this straight. the Fed will lend us any amount of money we want at 0% and we can loan it to the Treasury at 2%......okay, put me down for a couple Quadrillion".


----------



## sags

The best line I have heard on the debate so far..............

Mitt Romney would have won the debate even if he didn't show up.


----------



## Eder

I think Perry did great on Letterman last night. Best one was his line "It's hard to remember stuff with Mitt standing beside me. He's gorgeous!!"

I think the race is long from over...still waiting for the anti Mormon card to be played. Probably still too early.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Eder said:


> 1. Mitt standing beside me. He's gorgeous!!"
> 2. I think the race is long from over...still waiting for the anti Mormon card to be played.


1. The most handsome 64 year old man around. 
2. You know it's coming!


----------



## Belguy

Today is 11/11/11--a lucky buying day?

Also, a day to remember all of our veterans old and young. Thank you all for your sacrifice. We will never forget.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. Today is 11/11/11--a lucky buying day?
> 2. Thank you all for your sacrifice. We will never forget.


1. A lucky selling day!  The buying days took place the last couple of days...you know the drill, buy low/sell high?

2. Definitely will never forget!


----------



## andrewf

Not paying attention? Someone already played the 'Mormonism is a cult' card a few weeks ago.

I'm not religious, so one religion calling another a cult is a bit pot-meet-kettle, but I have to admit that Mormonism is an especially transparent scam, developed by a con artist.


----------



## webber22

I'm selling at 11/11/11 11:11:1111111 exactly


----------



## Toronto.gal

andrewf said:


> Not paying attention? Someone already played the 'Mormonism is a cult' card a few weeks ago.


Who was that someone, anyone of political importance? I think that is what Eder meant and no, not paying too much attention to political attacks as they are so predictable.


----------



## ddkay

I think todays high is probably in, maybe a little more room up to 1270. Just a lower high / triple top.


----------



## ddkay

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/11/greece-troika-idUSGA8E7MA0020111111



> ATHENS | Fri Nov 11, 2011 11:18am EST
> Nov 11 (Reuters) - Inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the European Central Bank, known as the 'troika', will visit Athens next week, a troika source said on Friday.
> 
> "We expect the IMF board to clear the next tranche only after it has commitments from the new government on agreed measures," the source told Reuters on condition of anonymity.


----------



## ddkay

Great story here on the great dollar devaluation: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/05/03/dollar-debasing-and-other-short-stories/

It was never strongly driven by rising supply (printing), it's falling demand as the world diversified into other currencies


----------



## Belguy

Beware of dividend paying stocks!! Some of their valuations are getting just a tad frothy!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...nvesting-doesnt-pay-dividends/article2234252/

2012 looking like a good year for investors:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...uld-be-a-good-year-for-stocks/article2233320/

Fee only financial advice:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ice/article2234167/singlepage/#articlecontent

You can restructure a company, but how can you restructure an entire continent?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...trategies-for-uncertain-times/article2232696/


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> 2012 looking like a good year for investors:
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...uld-be-a-good-year-for-stocks/article2233320/


What kind of an article is this?


----------



## ddkay

Syndicated with probably no editorial control or oversight.. G&M.com is competing for clicks, want to make sure there's content for everyone, they'd let your pet rock submit stories if it were possible.


----------



## ddkay

G&Ms actual staff columnists do a fine job, but the 'heya stranger why don't you submit-your-own op-ed and we'll publish it in this web section over here' has ruined its rep for me. No journalistic objectivity there... just a quick way to make bucks on a relatively insignificant news agency compared to its parent Thomson Reuters.


----------



## ddkay

Remember that penny stock? Hah it actually got pushed to print. God what were they thinking.

This is even worse. The second someone tries to critique the absurdity and probable falseness of said co's data points the author gets slammed with legal threats by shysters.



> Editor’s note. An earlier online version of this column on [x] did not intend to suggest that the company is misleading the public or its investors about the growth of its product, [x], or that the Google Analytics data on the number of unique visitors to [x] are inaccurate. The Globe and Mail regrets any inconvenience that may have been caused to [x].


Name censored so stock promoters don't come crawling here.


----------



## sags

Italian "austerity" plans...........

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/11/11/how-italy-plans-to-cut-its-debt-mountain/

Sell crown assets, privatize crown assets, raise pension age up 2 years in 2026, small gas tax increase, tax refunds for hiring young people, tax refunds for infrastructure.

Their austerity plan looks similar to our stimulus plan.

There won't even be able to pay the interest on the debt, with this plan.

The politicians are all still playing patty cake.


----------



## Belguy

From Bill Carrigan in the Toronto Star:

My next T-shirt will read, "I love the euro crisis: more cheap stocks for me!"

As a technical analysis, he states that "the bottom line here is that, from a technical perspective, the August through October lows are an important juncture that will likely become the origin of a major bull market. We need to participate. We need to focus more on the earnings and guidance from companies such as Cisco Systems Inc. and less on the names of the Greek and Italian prime ministers".

Onwards and upwards!!!


----------



## londoncalling

Is anybody predicting the same level of volatility this week or have the recent announcements in Europe created a false sense of optimism? I have some cash to deploy and am trying to gather sentiment. My guess is that markets will be up early this week but some bad news will bring them up and down throughout the week.


----------



## gibor365

londoncalling said:


> Is anybody predicting the same level of volatility this week or have the recent announcements in Europe created a false sense of optimism? I have some cash to deploy and am trying to gather sentiment. My guess is that markets will be up early this week but some bad news will bring them up and down throughout the week.


I have similar situation.... Got some cash from selling portion of DAY and Goldcorp...also moving some GIC money from TD Can trust to TDW... now in big dilemma what to buy and when to buy... buy again GIC or equities....
On one hand a lot of stocks are pretty cheap now, it'd seasonally good time for oil/energy equities....on other hand, Hell knows what will happen in Europe...

I also expect good start of the week and worse finish....


----------



## ddkay

The EFSF still has not raised any money

Also the US "super committee" has to decide whether or not to continue an extension of payroll taxcuts by November 23, if not fiscal drag in 2012 will rise significantly


----------



## ddkay

Mario Monti works for Goldman Sachs, you know what that means...


----------



## Larry6417

*Oh crap!*



Belguy said:


> From Bill Carrigan in the Toronto Star:
> 
> My next T-shirt will read, "I love the euro crisis: more cheap stocks for me!"
> 
> As a technical analysis, he states that "the bottom line here is that, from a technical perspective, the August through October lows are an important juncture that will likely become the origin of a major bull market. We need to participate. We need to focus more on the earnings and guidance from companies such as Cisco Systems Inc. and less on the names of the Greek and Italian prime ministers".
> 
> Onwards and upwards!!!


Time to sell.


----------



## larry81

Should be an interesting week , positive i am hoping !


----------



## Argonaut

I'm waiting for the input of the other 6400 Larry's in this forum before I decide where the market is going.


----------



## larry81

Argonaut said:


> I'm waiting for the input of the other 6400 Larry's in this forum before I decide where the market is going.


The invasion of the larrys !!!


----------



## KaeJS

Where's ddkay, aka "little bear"?

I need my market updates and funky charts.


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> Where's ddkay, aka "little bear"?


The new governments of Greece and Italy have invited him for consultations.
He should be back tomorrow.


----------



## ddkay

I don't have any new forecasts, same old. Europe's not solved. World index charts look messy and will likely break down sooner or later. DAX hit major resistance. Nasdaq 100 looks to be falling out a mega bearish descending triangle (RIP Apple). USD still resting on major support. CME bailed out MF Global customers (very rare). But at this pace it could take 3 years before we reach a long term bottom (I'm a longer term investor than some of u perceive)... staying out of this market unless I see a good trade, have casino money or the SP500 hits 500, whichever comes first.


----------



## KaeJS

Fine - Europe isn't solved.

But it's going to be. 

Just like the United States Debt Ceiling - they will fix it.


----------



## Argonaut

Who is they? Politicians? They could care less about the debt ceiling or the European system. They only care about one thing: their own re-election. Politicians are like a virus, only interested in their own survival and passing on infections to someone or something else.


----------



## ddkay

Right, they'll fix it by kicking the can some more, by the time I'm 40 we'll be reliving the stone age. I gotta be careful making sarcastic jokes like that. Sometimes it come true.


----------



## ddkay

Bullish:


----------



## Causalien

A contrarian indicator I use is ATVI. Since it is now falling off the cliff, the market should be in risk on mode shortly. Since whichever hedge fund manager uses it as safe heaven is probably feeling that s/he needs to start buying.

*edit missing an o in contrarian


----------



## Spudd

Causalien said:


> A cntrarian indicator I use is ATVI. Since it is now falling off the cliff, the market should be in risk on mode shortly. Since whichever hedge fund manager uses it as safe heaven is probably feeling that s/he needs to start buying.


Can you translate this to English? What is "risk on mode"?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Spudd said:


> What is "risk on mode"?


Risk on/risk off mode.
It's an investor's (or overall market's) state of mind that indicates whether to move into safer territory such as treasuries, bonds, etc. (risk off) or to move into riskier, higher return equities (risk on).
Last several weeks/months have been a yo-yo between risk on/off almost on an hr. by hr. basis.


----------



## ddkay

16th (tomorrow) potentially an important day, Fed stops reverse repos

Meanwhile, Canadian banks can't wait to get their hands dirty


----------



## Causalien

There's definitely a shift in sentiment for me and probably others like me who were undecided. Last night's Munsk debate changed my mind a bit. The future doesn't look as bleak.


----------



## ddkay

I read a snip of that debate this morning, it didn't look very conclusive (as always, nobody knows), but there is a lot of things that can go wrong http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/11/15/krugman-vs-summers-the-debate/. I'm all for being cautiously optimistic, but that starts with implementation of a relatively sensible solution, then optimism comes from hoping it works. Right now, nobody can agree on anything.


----------



## ddkay

Auditor Says F.H.A. Could Need Bailout, nobody could have seen this coming


----------



## gibor365

Causalien said:


> There's definitely a shift in sentiment for me and probably others like me who were undecided. Last night's Munsk debate changed my mind a bit. The future doesn't look as bleak.


Can you please explain , what is Munsk debate and why it changed your mind?
I understand you're more optimistic now?


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Fine - Europe isn't solved.
> 
> But it's going to be.
> 
> Just like the United States Debt Ceiling - they will fix it.


 Eduard Bernstein said "final goal is nothing; movement toward that goal is everything"
... the same is with Europe, the most important is process of fixing...


----------



## gibor365

Causalien said:


> A contrarian indicator I use is ATVI. Since it is now falling off the cliff, the market should be in risk on mode shortly. Since whichever hedge fund manager uses it as safe heaven is probably feeling that s/he needs to start buying.
> 
> *edit missing an o in contrarian


Why ATVI?! This is just gaming company... COD was released -> it was up, now it's pulling back...


----------



## larry81

Causalien said:


> A contrarian indicator I use is ATVI.


this is totally weird


----------



## Belguy

The current world debt situation is a fixable problem but the political system will not fix it for years to come.--Paul Krugman

When the economy is good, it is never as good as it seems.
When the economy is bad, it is never as bad as it seems.--Larry Summers


----------



## ddkay

Only thing I'm watching in the short term is an ES triangle (yellow) break below 1233 by cash open tomorrow morning. In that case things could get very ugly for the next week or two, or three... December has got to put in a new low though.










Re: ATVI



> Vivendi SA (VIV.FR) has sold a $427 million stake in video-games maker Activision Blizzard Inc., the Financial Times reported Wednesday on its website, citing the company.
> 
> The sale cuts Vivendi's holding in Activision to 60% from 63%, the report said. The report quoted Vivendi as saying the move was "tactical" and had to do with improving the French company's "overall capital structure." The sale would bring its holding to the same level as at the start of this year, the report said, citing Vivend.
> 
> Vivendi denied the sale had been prompted by rating agency worries about worsening conditions in European credit markets, and also denied that it was linked directly to its $1.9 billion purchase of EMI Group PLC, according to the report.
> 
> Full Story: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/32ea2dfe-0fbf-11e1-a36b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ddkHOKcI


----------



## Causalien

I don't try to explain things in my market often. It's best not to think of a reason and start believing it. Robot scans for correlation and ATVI is at less than 0.5. Which means a contrarian (Just like Cramer is a contrarian indicator). Could be like I said, could be that the CEO is an insider and knows the market move before it happens. (He definitely managed to sell his shares at the top, that greedy [email protected]).

I think it's safe to look at ATVI and understand that it started 2008 as the hedge against the whole crisis and this perception somehow propagated until now with nobody debunking it. Every time the market stinks, we get a bunch of recently laid off people joining WOW and creating income for ATVI. Every time it gets better, the CEO decides to dump his shares and move a bit closer towards being a billionaire with his greedy fingers.

As for the munsk debate: http://www.munkdebates.com/debates/North-American-Economy
Video: http://cdn.livestream.com/grid/LSPl...8b-0c2e-4b6f-8122-8556e089620d&autoPlay=false

There were, I believe 20% undecided at the beginning of the program and they mostly chose the No side at the end of the debate, while the yes side remained constant. So the swing votes in the audience echoed my own sentiment.

As for why I feel that it is less bleak. The debate made me remember something that I used to believe in, but forgot after the Euro fiasco started. That the problem in the US is a political one. And once we get back to a rising US, Europe will not have the problems it has right now.


----------



## gibor365

WTF again DOW futures -140 points


----------



## ddkay

There's no news, it did the same thing yesterday morning too.. no big deal unless ES slides through 1233 at some point tomorrow.


----------



## sags

Bank of England press conference on economy.

Synopsis of responses to reporter questions.

*No way to quantify or even enumerate all the different scenarios of how the debt situation will be resolved. It could include anything from a planned solution to a forced solution and there are more possiblities than they even can think of.

No idea what would happen in an extreme situation. Unknown territory as the risks aren't fully understood and all the ties aren't transparent.

Thus far, there is no credible plan for a solution.*

It sounds like a pretty bleak outlook. It will be interesting to see how the markets take the comments.


----------



## larry81

WTI Crude >100 !


----------



## ddkay

Enbridge reversed their Seaway pipeline away from cushing.. Brent was also lowered $2 as a result. Your beloved Suncor is still underperforming oil price if that's your benchmark, still under $34 & downtrend channel hasn't broken


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> Enbridge reversed their Seaway pipeline away from cushing.. Brent was also lowered $2 as a result. Your beloved Suncor is still underperforming oil price if that's your benchmark, still under $34 & downtrend channel hasn't broken


Yes i am about to hara-kiri !

ddkay, what is your opinion on short-term mid-term performance of SU ? Any quick technical analysis ?


----------



## ddkay

Here's what I was talking about


----------



## andrewf

I'm a bit puzzled about using ATVI as a contrarian play. You are talking about Activision, right?


----------



## ddkay

There must be a major policy decision coming within the next 2 weeks, we're at a tipping point (immediately below resistance on almost every chart). If it's positive news markets could rally the rest of the year... if it's negative we will make new lows again. I don't like the R/R to buy here, rather wait for the news.


----------



## zylon

*major breaking news ....*

market could go up

market could go down

or, horror of horrors ..

market could go sideways

"oh the humanity"


----------



## ddkay

It will be unable to go sideways after December 5th, I can guarantee you that much. The last 4 months have been a knife fight, there are gaps and holes and blood everywhere.


----------



## ddkay

Zero Hedge just posted this saying UniCredit is probably the next Dexia based on Sigma X activity, it's #1 most active for the second day in a row (Goldman/institutional investor darkpool)

Vivendi is #12, so I can see why FT questioned their sale of ATVI as an effect of credit drying up in EU


----------



## ddkay

SU making a run, keep an eye on it, potentially huge upside without interference


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> There must be a major policy decision coming within the next 2 weeks, we're at a tipping point (immediately below resistance on almost every chart). If it's positive news markets could rally the rest of the year... if it's negative we will make new lows again. I don't like the R/R to buy here, rather wait for the news.


Money came into TWD from GIC and have a little bit cash from sells.... Don't know what to do...market so unpredictable and driven mostly by rumors....

P.S. In last 2 weeks opened 2 small positiones in LNV and HEE and added to ZRE


----------



## ddkay

Deficit committee locked in budget stalemate 

It's 3PM power hour, ES supports at 1250, 1248, 1240


----------



## Causalien

INTC just revealed a game changer. I don't think any of its competitors can keep up for a while.


----------



## ddkay

What the heck happened to Rambus? Down 78% The jury's decision came out over an hour ago, and the stock just reacted now?

Edit nvm the stock was halted until 3:40


----------



## leoc2

ddkay said:


> What the heck happened to Rambus? Down 78% The jury's decision came out over an hour ago, and the stock just reacted now?
> 
> Edit nvm the stock was halted until 3:40


 Rambus (RMBS -60.4%) resumes trading after being halted in the wake of a federal jury's ruling against the company in a case in which it had alleged Micron (MU) and Hynix had conspired to prevent its computer memory technology from becoming an industry standard. Micron shares, also halted, now trading +21.8%

from seeking alpha site


----------



## ddkay

ES 1233.75! Skating on thin ice again.


----------



## ddkay

Who's buying here? This is where all the pro contrarians are supposed to step in...


----------



## Causalien

Can't speak for the pros, but my contrarian plays are up and haven't finished rising. So I can't really buy before I've sold these...


----------



## ddkay

It's off the lows


----------



## larry81

Causalien said:


> Can't speak for the pros, but my contrarian plays are up and haven't finished rising. So I can't really buy before I've sold these...


are you talking about ATVI ...


----------



## gibor365

ddkay, you're TA guru on this forum  question to you:
lookin at TNA chart , I see that it rebounded 3 times off $43 in last 3 weeks... Does it mean that $43 is a strong support and it's a more or less save buy at $43?


----------



## ddkay

http://www.dowjones.com/products/dj...urrencyBrokerageUrgesCustomersOutOfMarket.asp



> DJ ONLINE CURRENCY BROKERAGE URGES CUSTOMERS OUT OF MARKET
> NOVEMBER 16, 2011
> By KAREN JOHNSON
> 
> TORONTO (Dow Jones)--*Oanda, one of the largest online currency trading platforms for retail investors, has some unusual advice for its customers: stay out of the market.*
> 
> "We are encouraging our clients not to trade right now, but to watch the market carefully," said Michael Stumm, president and chief executive at Oanda, in an interview.
> 
> Oanda this week sent an email to its clients, advocating that they move to the sidelines and watch the markets tussle over each new headline out of Europe.
> 
> Oanda had over 29,000 U.S. clients at the end of the first quarter, the most of any retail broker, according to the most recent data available from research firm Aite Group.
> 
> The brokerage stands to lose revenue if customers heed its warning and trading volume falls. Online trading platforms like Oanda earn money on the spreads between the offering and asking prices in each transaction.
> But if Oanda clients stay in the market and lose big, they'll walk away for good, Stumm said.
> 
> "We want them to be with us for the long term," he said.
> 
> Currencies have swung wildly and unpredictably over the last few weeks as European leaders have struggled to agree on a comprehensive fix for the continent's debt crisis. On Wednesday, the euro traded at $1.3495, up from a one-month low of $1.3429 hit earlier in the day.
> 
> "Our analogy is that if there is a storm brewing, you don't go out in a sailboat if you are an amateur sailor," Stumm said. "If you are a real professional and have weathered multiple storms, then it might be a lot of fun, and you might get a lot out of it. ... And I think the same holds true for the forex markets."
> 
> It's too soon to say whether clients are heeding Oanda's advice, said Dean Popplewell, the company's chief currency strategist.
> 
> Currency traders say they are fielding more calls from clients of all types looking for additional guidance on hedging and investment strategies.
> 
> "Companies are taking a much closer look at all of their risks," said Jack Spitz, managing director of foreign exchange, financial markets and derivatives at National Bank in Toronto. "They are spending much more time doing due diligence about tail risks and currency volatility."
> 
> That volatility, Stumm said, is "generally not good" for retail clients.
> 
> During the financial crisis in 2008, Oanda saw a substantial drop in trading activity as clients, disappointed by losses or overcome by fear, withdrew from the market.
> 
> Oanda is seeing parallels to 2008. Volatility also surged just before the 2008 recession, cautioned Oanda analysts.
> 
> This week, seeing no end to the European debt crisis, and the currency market tumult it was causing, Oanda hit "send" on its cautionary email.


----------



## ddkay

When you keep getting bounces off the same level that makes strong support, but every new test of that line becomes cause for concern

TNA is saying it has until Nov 22nd to decide a new direction


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> When you keep getting bounces off the same level that makes strong support, but every new test of that line becomes cause for concern
> 
> TNA is saying it has until Nov 22nd to decide a new direction


Do you mean depends which way it breaks out of triangle?


----------



## Causalien

larry81 said:


> are you talking about ATVI ...


No. ATVI will raise a bull signal for me if it dips below 11, until then since it already raised the bear signal when it passed 12 nothing will trigger again until it breaks all time high. At which point the rules for this signal will be deleted and another indicator takes atvi's place.


----------



## KaeJS

gibor said:


> ddkay, you're TA guru on this forum  question to you:
> lookin at TNA chart , I see that it rebounded 3 times off $43 in last 3 weeks... Does it mean that $43 is a strong support and it's a more or less save buy at $43?


*gibor & ddkay*

The Tech Analysis chart for TNA or TZA (my favourite) is useless if you ask me.

TNA is not a company. It is based on emotions and greed more than anything.


----------



## Belguy

Just let me know when I should sell everything!!


----------



## ddkay

All TA is useless if it can't be applied universally.



gibor said:


> Do you mean depends which way it breaks out of triangle?


 Yup. Look @ LinkedIn, that's the first triangle pattern I identified & posted here.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I've invested all I am comfortable with for now... previously I would read the negative headlines and sell a bunch of stuff.... not anymore. What will happen will happen.

It helps that I've got lots o' dry powder in reserve in case armaggedon (buying opportunity) occurs.


----------



## Belguy

Anybody want to buy Claymore?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...nts-seeking-buyer-sources-say/article2238861/


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> All TA is useless if it can't be applied universally.


But what does it _actually_ tell you?

I mean, big deal... you've identified a trading range by drawing straight lines into a triangle.

How is that going to make you a better trader? It can trade in those lines forever, or break to the upside or downside tomorrow.

TNA does NOT need to "establish a new direction" by November 22. It can continue trading within the same type of trading range that it is trading in now.

The $53.43 High point in your TA for TNA is actually ruining the triangle in your chart, as it is the highest point and shows a lot of bullish-ness that is not even out there in the market right now.

Your triangle is not indicative of anything, as TNA can trade between $47 and $44 forever, if that's what ends up happening.

I just don't understand, and I'm not trying to be rude.

How does it help anyone depict what is going to happen tomorrow? Personally, I say TNA drops tomorrow and TZA goes up.


----------



## ddkay

Couldn't help but notice the super tight correlation between S&P500 cash and Cypress Semiconductor, but now it's dislocating. Temporarily?


----------



## ddkay

KaeJS said:


> How is that going to make you a better trader? It can trade in those lines forever, or break to the upside or downside tomorrow.


It can't trade in those lines forever when the lines are converging. If you buy after a break (and not anticipating one in a certain direction and being wrong) in a market with a lot of stress like this you can usually make a lot of money.



KaeJS said:


> TNA does NOT need to "establish a new direction" by November 22. It can continue trading within the same type of trading range that it is trading in now.


It needs to set new direction to either confirm or invalidate the current pattern. If it wants to go sideways, it has to break out of the triangle and start a new up and down range in the next time period and have a hard ceiling and floor limit. August-October was sideways with 1 false break down (Oct 4). This is not sideways.


----------



## ddkay

There is one bright spot for the Super Committee

Gimmicks Could Help Rescue Deficit Talks

How do I go long accounting fraud?



> With Congress's deficit-reduction supercommittee barreling toward a deadline for striking a big budget deal, both parties are reaching for accounting gimmicks to help reach their target of $1.2 trillion in savings over 10 years.
> 
> Some tools are familiar to old Washington hands, such as massaging budget assumptions and painting rosy economic scenarios. Others include taking credit for "saving" money on wars that are ending and putting off until next year what lawmakers don't want to deal with now.
> 
> All told, none of these efforts make the fundamental policy changes needed for a long-term budget fix. "Suddenly everyone is talking not about deficit reduction but deficit-reduction gimmicks," said Stanley Collender, a budget expert and former congressional aide.
> 
> Any perception of gimmickry could undermine the bill's credibility especially among tea-party conservatives and on Wall Street, possibly risking another hit to the U.S.'s credit rating.


----------



## larry81

I finally found the philosophical stone of contrarian investing ! Coupled with my advanced TA skills, my strategy is simply unbeatable !!!

Proof:


----------



## ddkay

There was interference... Super Committee stalemate (SU selloff began at 2:45PM, news posted here at 3:02PM), Fitch downgraded RMBS, and Moodys downgraded 10 German banks

It's still under my line in the sand, which, even then is just an approximation, SU over $34 is almost definitely a buy, considering the circumstances and how much buying power it would take to get there. The last time we gapped up and over it was Nov 8th earnings day. I also asked if U were selling that day, you did not.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay, I think larry just proved TA doesn't work. 

Why are the futures green now?


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> There was interference... Super Committee stalemate (SU selloff began at 2:45PM, news posted here at 3:02PM), Fitch downgraded RMBS, and Moodys downgraded 10 German banks
> 
> It's still under my line in the sand, which, even then is just an approximation, SU over $34 is almost definitely a buy, considering the circumstances and how much buying power it would take to get there. The last time we gapped up and over it was Nov 8th earnings day. I also asked if U were selling that day, you did not.


Absolutely no offense ddkay, i was just trying to make (in a funny way) the point that, YES, there always interference !

This is why trying to predict the the future is a loser game. Also, the fact that TA is done by thousands of analysts armed with sophisticated tools and mathematical models that are unavailable to the individual investor make it loser game.

Pick up a copy of "Random Walk Down Wall Street", there an entire chapter of TA and others forecasting techniques.


----------



## ddkay

I picked up a copy of Memory effects in stock price dynamics instead



> We ﬁnd that the probability of bouncing on support and resistance values is
> higher than 1/2 or, anyway, is higher than an equivalent random walk or of
> the shuﬄed series. In particular we ﬁnd that as the number of bounces on
> these values increases, the probability of bouncing on them becomes higher.
> This means that the probability of bouncing on a support or a resistance is
> an increasing function of the number of previous bounces, diﬀerently from
> a random walk or from the shuﬄed time series in which this probability is
> independent on the number of previous bounces. This features is a very
> interesting quantitative evidence for a self-reinforcement of agents’ beliefs, in
> this case, of the strength of the resistance/support.


----------



## ddkay

KaeJS said:


> ddkay, I think larry just proved TA doesn't work.
> 
> Why are the futures green now?


It's still hovering 1230s, it really doesn't matter what happens until the US session opens. You could get a full retrace in the EU session. Tell me TA doesn't work if nothing happens by next Tuesday. Also, I never said it would go straight down from here. I said resting on these lower levels usually means there is cause for concern, if the news stream turns positive, we could go higher over 1260.

I can't consistently time exact tops and bottoms, like Paul Tudor Jones, I'm only concerned about catching some meat in the middle.


----------



## KaeJS

It better do a full retrace or 180.

These futures are driving me nuts and there's no reason for them to be so wildly positive. I have searched the internet for an hour and I can't find a single piece of "positive" news. Nothing that should put the futures at +51.

I would like one more down day, even if it is relatively flat. I just don't want a huge green day tomorrow.

ddkay, I will keep my eyes peeled for Tuesday.


----------



## KaeJS

On second thought - I'm not worried. Things will be red tomorrow. 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-16/euro-touches-5-week-low-as-debt-crisis-dims-economic-outlook.html

I am going to bed. I have some trading to do at 9:30am tomorrow.

Goodnight folks!


----------



## ddkay

Economists vs traders http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-invest-pd20111117-NNVW4?OpenDocument&src=sph



> I have lots of friends who fall into both camps. If there is one constant amongst traders, it is that they universally hate economists. The typical refrain is that economists (strategists and analysts too) are overpaid astrologists who could not hit a dart-board if it was pinned to their faces.
> 
> Economists, frankly, do not have much of a comeback to this criticism, since empirically they know, with some unstated sorrow, that their forecasting records over the long-run are, in truth, no better than the proverbial monkey pegging darts at a target.





> Well, pure traders, as opposed to traditional 'investors', are either gamblers or bookmakers. Gamblers never make money in the long-run. Bookmakers profit over and over again. A pure trader, like a market-maker, is imbued with an excellent intuitive sense for third-party (outside) sentiment, probabilities, timing and risk. Most importantly, they know how to correctly 'handicap' the likelihood of a distribution of future possibilities. They know when to parlay up their bets, and when to step away from the table because, for instance, the distribution is unknowable.





> Nevertheless, the archetypal chief economist is asked to take a snapshot of the world today, and based exclusively on that cut of information, forecast what will happen in three, six, 12 and 18 months' time. And then they are lampooned by traders when they get it wrong. As I have outlined here, such long-term guesses are a mug’s game. The world is far too complex a place to try to make a credible living by purporting to precisely quantify its dynamics in a distant state of nature.
> 
> The trader, by way of contrast, is not held to a specific image of time, or slice of data. No, the trader is able to flexibly adjust his or her view of the world every single day, as new information and perspectives come to light. The best traders are well-known for doing exactly this. One often hears stories of how some celebrated trader expressed an opinion about a security or market in the morning, only to hold an opposing position later in the day. Of course, this makes sense. The world is continuously evolving. Life can sometimes feel like a sequence of completely unknowable, or utterly unforecastable, events that have been strung together like pearls on a necklace.





> Good traders are making probability-weighted guesses about how market pricing will respond to a distribution of prospective events. Economists, on the other hand, are trying to do two completely different things.
> 
> First, they are seeking to predict what specific event within the trader’s distribution will materialise. This is very hard, and why I have previously advocated economists attaching confidence intervals to their projections so that users understand the uncertainty associated with them.
> 
> Second, they are engaged in the arguably impossible task of trying to predict exact events over the long-term. No person in human history has been able to do that with verifiable reliability.


----------



## ddkay

KaeJS said:


> It better do a full retrace or 180. These futures are driving me nuts and there's no reason for them to be so wildly positive. I have searched the internet for an hour and I can't find a single piece of "positive" news. Nothing that should put the futures at +51.


Haha, not so fast. I meant retrace to 1250s. Market Watch reports Asia stocks are up because “There’s some pretty attractive valuations out there". The EUR/USD low was in at 6:41PM, it's up 0.51% since then.


----------



## Causalien

Ah I see now. Larry81 has a hatred against TA. That's probably because people who uses Technical analysts sometimes appears to be following it to the T without deviation. 

All that TA is, is the probability of certain things happen. Drawing the trendline is only 1 of the several thousands of TA technique and TA forms the majority of the strategies in robo trading. Hence, we sometimes see it pan out.

I find that a combination of fundamentals, Technicals and robotic is the best way to go at it. At least when your robot is screaming Sell KO at $1, your fundamentals can override and tell it to eff off.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> On second thought - I'm not worried. Things will be red tomorrow.


More chances that TNA will be up....it's oversold and didn't break triangle channel


----------



## dogcom

TNA looks like it is ready to drop as it tops out here and looks to be failing. But bigger then this is the the overall market which can take out the TA you have done.

Causalien is right about TA, there are a lot of different ways to use it but it is something that you should have in your toolkit. RSI for example is a very simple form of TA that tells you when a stock is oversold or overbought. But just on its own it is not enough because stocks can stay overbought or oversold for awhile. It does help however when going into a season of strength for a sector to see if you are getting in at a low or may need to wait for a dip to get in.


----------



## ddkay

I think there is a bearish fractal drawing out on the 1min ES (intraday trade), support at 1226


----------



## Belguy

How is America doing? In early November, the U.S. Census Bureau released new figures that raised the estimated number of people in poverty from 46.2 million to 49.1 million---16 per cent of the population!!

Where is it going to end?


----------



## dogcom

I am getting that bull trap feeling on the market at this time as the experts on CNBC all seem to be saying we have bottomed and up is the way in the face of the Europe problems. Usually the experts will all be down with the market and very worried about the problems as we climb the wall of worry.


----------



## ddkay

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CRK321M1:IND

Crack spread down 64% since August, bearish for refinery profit margins


----------



## ddkay

Nice crash after rising wedge break, important support around 1208 and 1185


----------



## ddkay

Longer term (into December), in addition to the magic triangle, the following saucer top pattern could play out


----------



## ddkay

There's a second rising wedge forming on ES, potentially setting up for another drop before close, maybe when the bond market opens


----------



## ddkay

This is what's on my screen if anyone's curious what I "see"...










Done trading for the day, made a few grand. Going to sit back and watch how the rest of the week plays out, OpEx should be interesting.


----------



## ddkay

reference - Saudi Arabia needs oil price over $90/bbl for their revenues and expenditures to balance


----------



## Belguy

You guys are miles ahead of me in your knowledge of the markets. I only hope that it ends up making you money over the long term. The consensus seems to be that 2012 is not going to be a good year for stock pickers and I still believe in the long term power of ETF's! Time will tell.


----------



## Argonaut

How could there be a consensus for 2012 when 2011 isn't finished, and one doesn't even know which stocks people are picking? I wager the majority of stock pickers are more confident in their selections than certain people are with their ETFs.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Done trading for the day, made a few grand. Going to sit back and watch how the rest of the week plays out, OpEx should be interesting.


Just wondering what did you trade today?


----------



## ddkay

Used TVIX


----------



## Causalien

Funny, I have half of my calls getting exercised early (Yesterday). Now the stock market tanked. Couldn't have it played out better than this. It's a win-win for both my caller and me.

Yep, on the sideline watching this opex show as well. Reflecting on the MF global mess. I am thinking about actually diversifying assets amongst more brokerage. Since MF global showed that the "insurance" you have on your deposit with your broker is just a joke.


----------



## ddkay

I think market makers and put sellers are defending ES 1200 (50DMA) for OpEx, it will be hard to go through that, but if it does there will be another burst of forced liquidation/capitulation


----------



## ddkay

Very good read on how fractional reserve banking works Why all correlations are moving to 1


----------



## ddkay

Gap fill is possible overnight, not discounting that, would bring us back to ES 1237 (triangle backtest) by Friday 4pm cash close, so keeping my mind open

Thought this was a funny story http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/garden/the-cash-and-carry-house.html



> In recent years, more cash-strapped Americans have been [...] realizing the dream of homeownership on the cheap, by buying land and then hauling in inexpensive (or free) houses that would have otherwise been torn down. Many of these houses come from used-house lots, the domestic equivalent of used-car lots, where one can choose from a surprisingly wide range of styles, whether quaint shingled cottages or multistory houses.
> 
> There are no hard figures on how many homes are acquired this way, but while sales of stationary houses have been declining, sales of the peripatetic variety appear to be increasing.
> 
> Owners of used-house lots, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, on the Gulf and East Coasts and in the Upper Midwest, said their sales had increased as much as 60 percent over the last three years.


----------



## Argonaut

ddkay, please post more of your dreams. Riding the bear with a snake down the mountain was the best market forecast yet.


----------



## ddkay

The Great Liquidity Freeze: What Does it Mean for International Banking? http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1871706



> Abstract:
> In mid-September 2008, following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, international interbank markets froze and interbank lending beyond very short maturities virtually evaporated. Despite massive central bank support operations and purchases of key assets, many financial markets remained impaired for a long time. Why was this funding crisis so much worse than other past major bank failures and why has it proved so hard to cure? This paper suggests that much of that answer lies in the balance sheets of international banks and their customers. It outlines the basic building blocks of liquidity management for a bank that operates in many currencies and then discusses how the massive development of foreign exchange (forex) and interest rate derivatives markets transformed banks’ strategies in this area. It explains how the pervasive interconnectedness between major banks and markets magnified contagion effects. Finally, the paper provides some recommendations for how strategic borrowing choices by international banks could make them more stable and how regulators could assist in this process.


----------



## ddkay

I'll update you tomorrow morning  Good night


----------



## ddkay

Update: Large gap fills above and below










I didn't dream anything remotely related to the markets, sorry guys


----------



## Jungle

What does that mean, ddkay?


----------



## Causalien

What gap below?


----------



## ddkay

above 1216 to 1225, 1230, 1237
below 1216 to 1210, 1200, 1180


----------



## Causalien

In time stamp please. We might have different definition of a gap.


----------



## ddkay

That's the maximum range I see today by 4pm close


----------



## Rommel

Can you post the same charts with the date ranges?


----------



## kcowan

Statistics-Canada:


> Nonresidents sold $612 million of Canadian bonds in September and bought a net $721 million of stocks. Investment in money-market paper surged in the third quarter to a record $16.2 billion, surpassing the $9.9-billion gain in the last three months of 2008.


Switching to stocks from bonds but holding cash.


----------



## ddkay

Outside a triangle pattern it's impossible to put a good till/expiry date. We're outside the multi-month triangle now so timing until the next major daily event is anyone's best guess. Some EW people are saying lows Sunday night, highs Tuesday, low Friday, then rally or sideways trading range beginning the last week of November into and during December. Translation, we're probably going to be in the 1200s awhile longer. This is some serious crystal ball stuff though, the market could crash 100pts Sunday night, no one knows. 2012 is not looking good by any metric though.










Today was extremely uneventful, just 28 hours of mean reversion always coming back to 1215 level and never able to tag 1237, the highest end of the range and practically flat close. Again, the only reason TA is useful is because 75% of the market is electronic trading and it becomes self-reinforcing when those machines are programmed (by humans) to respect support/resistance levels on different time scales. IMO completely discounting the effect it has, research that finds it works more than half the time, and its usefulness in decision making is just ignorance and complacency.


----------



## ddkay

Sunday night's bottom is supposed to be in soon ES currently at 1202


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Sunday night's bottom is supposed to be in soon ES currently at 1202


Last Sunday night futures were sharply up ....and down during trading session... maybe this time we'll get opposite picture?


----------



## Jungle

Another bath today, boys.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Its tempting to trot out the "good buying opportunity" line... but you know what, this market is really starting to pi** me off. Bloody Europe, U.S. politicians who really have no clue... this world we live in is seriously dysfunctional. People poked fun at my excessive cash holdings in the past.. should have stuck to my guns.


----------



## KaeJS

Should have held TZA


----------



## ddkay

MA50 (1200) broke, went to 1192 at 3:51 AM this Monday morning, there's at least another 12 point drop in the cards... 1180 is very important support after that it's real crash territory. Just gonna sit out again and watch today.


----------



## KaeJS

Anybody think congress is going to pull something out of their butt by the end of the day for the $1.2T?


----------



## Dibs

KaeJS said:


> Anybody think congress is going to pull something out of their butt by the end of the day for the $1.2T?





Globe and Mail said:


> The committee was given a deadline of Nov. 23 to come up with a plan to narrow the budget deficit by $1.2-trillion or accept automatic cuts to social programs and defence of an equal amount. Monday is seen by most as the actual deadline because the committee recommendations must be public for 48 hours before the ultimate vote.


I don't know much about the big picture, but it seems that if no deal is made, they will just have automatic cuts to social and defence on an equal amount. Is this necessarily a bad thing?


----------



## ddkay

MF Global customer loss widens from 600M to 1.2B, and Jon Corzine still isn't in prison


----------



## Jon_Snow

Absolutely fugly...


----------



## ddkay

If RY loses support at $40 in the next few months I'm closing all my accounts there (credit, brokerage, chequeings, savings) and withdrawing in cash


----------



## dubmac

^ sounds panicky...
what reports/analyses are you reading to reach a decision like that?? - what just RY and not all cdn banks?


----------



## ddkay

I haven't read any, there is always something outside the picture that you don't see or know about, that in itself makes me uneasy. Sure all others may suffer the same fate, but RY is definitely showing the most weakness right now. These are shareholder owned for-profit institutions, I would doubt they aren't taking exponentially riskier bets to chase returns and make up losses the last few quarters.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> If RY loses support at $40 in the next few months I'm closing all my accounts there (credit, brokerage, chequeings, savings) and withdrawing in cash


... That's just crazy talk.

Look at 2008/2009. The bank was fine.


----------



## Homerhomer

dubmac said:


> ^ sounds panicky...
> ?


agree, a bit of overreaction imo.


----------



## KaeJS

Can anybody explain this random half hour power rally starting at 2:00pm?


----------



## KaeJS

I want to call bluff.

I say we drop back down before 4pm.

Holding my TZA position.


----------



## ddkay

Daily low held at 1180, if the new trajectory continues it should hit 1200ish around cash close. There's a 30pt range today, if you do get to low 1180s again I would take profit, R/R isn't good here.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Anybody think congress is going to pull something out of their butt by the end of the day for the $1.2T?


Donno when they gonna pull something, but when they pull marker can rally for some time


----------



## ddkay

The Super Committee is irrelevant, if they don't come to a decision that will trigger automatic bigger austerity/spending cuts, either scenario is bullish for the dollar, because if the US gets downgraded again, the only alternative to government bonds are municpal and corporate bonds, the highest quality belonging to largest multinational corporations in the world that issue debt denominated in... wait for it... US dollars, any way you slice it, deleverging continues and credit creation is slowing

Tomorrow is supposed to be an up day according to EW theory, and a strong Xmas rally may begin after Thanksgiving, so let's see what happens...


----------



## Mockingbird

KaeJS said:


> Can anybody explain this random half hour power rally starting at 2:00pm?


Sell volume dried out and no one (smart money that is..) wanted to short into the technical support in Spoos.

My 2c.
MB


----------



## KaeJS

I absolutely hate the futures market.

Just thought y'all should know.

All news is negative, and the futures are green like a Christmas tree.


----------



## andrewf

It's almost as if the news is all just noise...


----------



## ddkay

Ok this market is really bearish and really oversold now this is the 7th selloff session in a row, dollar up at highs and ES looks like it wants to test 1180 again currently at 1185. US GDP came in .5% lower than expected. Honestly we are approaching a crash scenario here if that inverse saucer pattern plays out you are going to really lament buying dips, this is why for most people I'm constantly advocating safety (cash) and not trying to time every twist and turn in this market.


----------



## ddkay

***RTRS: IMF creates new flexible precautionary and liquidity line to break "chains of contagion", help deal with market stres. These new liquidity line gives countries access to financing over six months for short-term balance of payment needs.

Headline released exactly as ES hit 1179.25, sharp bounce now in process.

I'm probably going long over 1200.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> ***
> 
> I'm probably going long over 1200.


Just wondering if you telling "going long" , you mean long SPY?

To tell the truth , I doubt S&P can gain more than 10 points today......but I'm usually wrong...

P.S. interesting that XIV is currently up 0.78%, and S&P still down -0.2.
Isn't it bullish sign for the rest of the day?


----------



## ddkay

I'll probably be using TNA, there is still significant resistance as 1190 so I wouldn't be opening positions until tomorrow. Thursday the US market is closed because of Thanksgiving, but it reopens on Friday with holiday hours and closes early at 1PM.


----------



## ddkay

Wow huge huge closing sell volume after this headline: FED SETS JAN 9, 2012 FOR NEW ROUND OF BANK STRESS TESTS


----------



## ddkay

November 22, 2011 9:02 pm
Federal Reserve launches new stress tests
By Tom Braithwaite in New York



> The Federal Reserve will force the biggest US banks to model a severe eurozone recession and a US unemployment rate of 13 per cent as part of stress tests launched on Tuesday, which will culminate in public disclosure of banks’ stressed capital levels.
> 
> The second annual “comprehensive capital analysis and review” is designed to ensure that US banks are adequately capitalised to weather a worsening economic storm at home and abroad, including a peak decline of 6.9 per cent in eurozone real gross domestic product.
> 
> Banks that do poorly on the exercise – which also judges their capital planning – will be prevented from paying out increased dividends or share buy-backs. The Fed said even for healthy banks proposed dividends of more than 30 per cent of net income would “receive particularly close scrutiny”.
> 
> Some have complained that the testing is too onerous as they cancel vacation for employees working on the modelling and prepare to wade through individual loan files to find the data required by the Fed.
> 
> The 19 biggest banks face the public disclosure of their stressed capital levels and revenues – a departure from last year’s tests when the Fed’s decision to prevent Bank of America from increasing its pay-out to shareholders was not initially made public.
> 
> The six biggest, including BofA, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, will have to model a “global market shock”, testing their balance sheets against a scenario in which there is a deterioration of the eurozone crisis and a recession in the US.
> 
> In 2009, the Fed’s first stress tests proved a landmark moment in restoring faith in the banking system after the crisis when officials published results of their work that reassured investors. European tests have failed to achieve the same results, with concern that they were not sufficiently rigorous.
> 
> It is worries over the fallout from the worsening European economy and fragile banking system that have plagued US bank stocks this year, with shares in BofA and Morgan Stanley down by more than 60 and 50 per cent respectively and Citigroup and Goldman down by more than 40 per cent.
> 
> In response to worries that US banks will be hit hard by the deteriorating picture over the Atlantic, the Fed has broadened its tests to factor in a shock in the eurozone and Japanese and UK real gross domestic product falling by more than 4 per cent at the end of next year. The Fed emphasised the scenarios were “not forecasts”.
> 
> More than 30 banks have to participate in the tests compared with 19 in previous years, including any bank with more than $50bn in assets. But the smallest of the group have to provide less information to the Fed.
> 
> Banks have to show that their core “tier one common” equity remains above 5 per cent even under the stress scenario. Banks have to file data to the Fed by the start of January. Partial results will be published in March.


----------



## ddkay

*HSBC China manufacturing PMI falls to contractionary 48.0 reading vs 51.0 last month

Since Monday we've seen super fail committee, lower US GDP, threat of US bank stress tests, Dexia bailout failure, China PMI contraction.. all since Monday. Futures are collapsing, it's over guys. Inverse saucer. Hope you sold by now, if not, sorry for your loss.. Merry Christmas.


----------



## ddkay

This feels eerily similar to October 4th, we faked out/overshot support then too. I don't know what will happen from here but if the financial world sponataneously combusts you can find me living in a van down the river.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay,

you are very bearish. which is fine.

but, if you actually believe everything you are saying, why are you not shorting the market?

Why would you not buy something like TZA?

In the 08/09 crash, TZA hit over $350. That's 10x its current price.
Halfway through 2010, TZA hit over $110, which is 3x its current price.

Why would you not buy now at $35-36?

Bet the farm on it. If you're right - you can retire.


----------



## andrewf

KaeJS said:


> Why would you not buy something like TZA?
> 
> In the 08/09 crash, TZA hit over $350. That's 10x its current price.
> Halfway through 2010, TZA hit over $110, which is 3x its current price.
> 
> Why would you not buy now at $35-36?


You know that even if the S&P falls to the same level, TZA won't hit those same dollar values, right? I think you're looking at the Google Finance chart, which seems to have an error in it (missing a reverse split in July 2010 5:1). Yahoo Finance shows that (reverse) split adjusted price at the 08/09 low was about $1600. I think that 'optimistically' you could see a 100 - 150% rise in TZA in the event of a crash... just not a 4,500% rise.


----------



## sags

Shocker.........Germany auction fails to sell 35% of offering............

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...r-35-of-10-year-bunds-offered-at-auction.html

The German auction for 6 Billion Euros........only sold 3.8 Billion, and the interest rate was higher than anticipated @ 1.98%.

Everyone has been expecting the Germans to step in and bail out the other Euro countries. This may not be possible, if Germany can't raise money for their own purposes.

The situation is becoming unglued.

US market futures down sharply.


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> Bet the farm on it. If you're right - you can retire.


Because it's prudent to anticipate that once assumptions may be incorrect ;-) If he is right he can retire, if he is wrong he is screwed, but there is a middle ground between screwing and retirment, or so I hope ;-)


----------



## kcowan

sags said:


> The German auction for 6 Billion Euros........only sold 3.8 Billion, and the interest rate was higher than anticipated @ 1.98%.
> ...


US Treasury auctions have failed to sell out since QE1.

Unless they have the ECB start QEE, they will have to reissue their bonds at a higher yield and let market forces work.

Certainly it is a sign that investors may be gradually becoming rational.


----------



## KaeJS

Isn't this market becoming oversold now for certain stocks?

I mean... all of the companies I own are still profitable, yet everything has been falling for weeks.

I wish I knew where the bottom was.


----------



## gibor365

and when the hell Xmas rally starts ?!


----------



## dogcom

We haven't seen the big volume on the market yet so when we get that we should have our bottom in place for now.


----------



## ddkay

I'm shorting the market by being long USD, you can also double that return with UUP, or try short SPY/long UUP. The TNA/TZA/TVIX stuff is just for swing/day trades, bets could go very wrong there...


----------



## Causalien

gibor said:


> and when the hell Xmas rally starts ?!


A repeat of 2008 october to April period. Christmas will probably see a lot of bank go belly up. People need to short German bonds so that Merkel will finally capitulate.


----------



## Sampson

Causalien said:


> A repeat of 2008 october to April period. Christmas will probably see a lot of bank go belly up.


If this is true, keep your eyes out for the Swiss banks.

They took a beating due to their exposure to the US system and haven't recovered one tiny bit. I'm sure UBS and Credit Suisse would remain solvent, but they would get slaughtered. This might be a once in a lifetime coming up.


----------



## dubmac

@dogcom

What do you consider big volume? 
Today's volume is around 200M. 

On March 9th 2009 the volume was 196M (TSX was 7527), and on March 10th 2009 it was 323M

Do you have a hard & fast number or do you look more at the relative increase in the volume of shares (ie: a doubling over the previous day's volume?

Just curious..


----------



## dogcom

Dubmac if you look at a chart of SPY:US you will notice most of the bottoms see much bigger volume then usual. I use the S&P because everyone follows that and the TSX for the most part follows what the S&P 500 does. So when you look at that chart you will see there is no capitulation event at this time.


----------



## Causalien

Fellow Canadians. Please reduce your household debt. We are up there with UK

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/total debt to gdp_0.jpg


----------



## ddkay

When you take into account currency conversion SPX:TSX follow each other almost exactly, I plotted SPX against EWC against each other in the summer here (thanks andrewf) http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=79981&postcount=783

These are market cap weighted indexes, so I would say it gives a pretty accurate picture how much money is entering or exiting the stock market and general health of the economy.


----------



## KaeJS

Causalien said:


> Fellow Canadians. Please reduce your household debt. We are up there with UK
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/total debt to gdp_0.jpg


You are preaching to the choir!!


----------



## Belguy

I am continually confused as to whether we are supposed to save our money or spend it??

When consumer spending is up, that is supposed to be good for the economy. However, when consumer saving is up, that is also supposed to be a good thing.

Could someone define the happy medium? 

Exactly what are we supposed to spend to help the economy and what are we supposed to set aside for savings instead?

Spend or save? Save or spend?


----------



## ddkay

Belguy said:


> I am continually confused as to whether we are supposed to save our money or spend it??
> 
> When consumer spending is up, that is supposed to be good for the economy. However, when consumer saving is up, that is also supposed to be a good thing.
> 
> Could someone define the happy medium?
> 
> Exactly what are we supposed to spend to help the economy and what are we supposed to set aside for savings instead?
> 
> Spend or save? Save or spend?


That was deep, Belguy, that was deep


----------



## marina628

How big is your mattress belguy? lol .I spent hundreds of thousands in last couple years and helped employ many people so I have done my part and now saving and paying down the mortgage.Buy an extra case of Vienna Sausages when they are on sale is ok but buy a new car forget it


----------



## ddkay

Did I mention this looks eerily similar to October 4th? I am looking at EUR/USD, that is either going to have a dead cat bounce or a crash within the next 10 days. For everyone's sake I hope it's a bounce, the overall trend is still down but it's inside a falling wedge so if it breaks out we have bought ourselves extra time until June 2012 or so.

Looking at ZB (30-Year Treasury Bond Futures), but a much shorter time period, this thing is either going to explode through the ceiling in a disaster scenario within 2 days or pullback for a few weeks and let the stock market have its turn again.

So far ES is higher, EUR/USD is higher, most of Asia is trading higher.


----------



## 2heaven

Belguy said:


> I am continually confused as to whether we are supposed to save our money or spend it??
> 
> When consumer spending is up, that is supposed to be good for the economy. However, when consumer saving is up, that is also supposed to be a good thing.
> 
> Could someone define the happy medium?
> 
> Exactly what are we supposed to spend to help the economy and what are we supposed to set aside for savings instead?
> 
> Spend or save? Save or spend?


Saving is ok as long as your investing. Spending is ok. The only thing that really doesn't help the economy is if you sit on cash.


----------



## kcowan

ddkay said:


> That was deep, Belguy, that was deep


There are spenders and there are savers. There is no foolproof way to convert one to the other. Lottery winners generally follow their pre-existing pattern. The only exception is when the winner shares the winnings with someone else from the other group.


----------



## dubmac

Belguy said:


> Save or spend?


IMO Save & sleep well at night


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> Spend or save? Save or spend?


From what you have said on this forum, you are not a poor senior Belguy and so at this stage of the game, you should not deprive yourself; buy what you need & want [if you can afford it]. As well, while I would not suggest you try bungee jumping with your free time, I would encourage you to do fun things [if you're not already doing so], like line dancing for example. Worry less about the markets; volunteer, check out the senior events calendar in your area & have fun, life is short! 

*ddkay:* I appreciate & enjoy reading your posts, but I really wish you were a bit less pessimistic & cynical in general; you're too young for that [though I do understand you].


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> I would encourage you to do *fun* things [if you're not already doing so], like *line dancing* for example.


Oh boy, I think I would rather have colonoscopy than do line dancing,


----------



## humble_pie

lol little bear is practising on us against the day when he has the creds & starts managing the family assets for real (not saying any more.)

sometimes bear's youth & extreme passion for the subject carry him far away to exotic realms. That's when he gets rather, ah, purple about exploding-nuclear-by-tuesday. Lately he's learned to throw in a hedge or 2. If not nuked, he'll add these days, banks & treasury departments could possibly survive until next spring ...

t.gal, we should all have such amazingly talented offspring. Little bear's family is fortunate.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Homerhomer said:


> Oh boy, I think I would rather have colonoscopy than do line dancing,


I guess you didn't catch the humour.  

I meant killing 2 birds with 1 stone, ie: exercising + having fun [not talking stocks] which is very important at that age [I guess at any age].  

Btw, not really sure what line dancing is, just that is low impact/speed type exercise.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> t.gal, we should all have such amazingly talented offspring.


Indeed! I already do in fact and so do you!


----------



## Causalien

Toronto.gal said:


> I guess you didn't catch the humour.
> 
> I meant killing 2 birds with 1 stone, ie: exercising + having fun, which is very important at that age [I guess any age].
> 
> Btw, not really sure what line dancing is, just that is low impact/speed type exercise.


Line dancing usually consists of a teacher leading a large crowd to dance moves taken from latin dances. It's a safe and relaxing way to familiarize people with dancing so they don't get turned off right away from all the attention and scrutiny.

Moves are usually made up and given a name and have no consistency across the world.

So is ddkay Humble's successor? I've been wondering why humble hasn't activated his usual dark humor cannon on ddkay.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Causalien said:


> 1. Line dancing usually consists of a teacher leading a large crowd to dance moves taken from latin dances.
> 2. It's a safe and relaxing way to familiarize people with dancing.
> 3. So is ddkay Humble's successor? I've been wondering why humble hasn't activated his usual dark humor cannon on ddkay.


1. Thank you for the explanation! 
2. That's what I meant that it's good for seniors! 
3. Give him another few years and you bet!

Macarena for the younger crowd! We all need to be in shape. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN62PAKoBfE


----------



## Homerhomer

and the most common form of line dancing in North America is something like this:


----------



## Belguy

I'm second from the left in that picture.


----------



## Causalien

Woke up at market open. Realizes its US thanksgiving. This keeps on happening every year.


----------



## KaeJS

Homerhomer said:


> Oh boy, I think I would rather have colonoscopy than do line dancing,


Tell me about it.


----------



## Mockingbird

Causalien said:


> Woke up at market open. Realizes its US thanksgiving. This keeps on happening every year.


Yes, finally able to get some rest. 

MB


----------



## ddkay

I'm really trying not to be cynical, at this stage I'm actually in crisis denial mode. ZB retreated today, to me that's a good sign.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> ZB retreated today, to me that's a good sign.


Please explain.

What is ZB?


----------



## ddkay

ZB 30-Year US Treasury Bond Futures: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...y/30-year-us-treasury-bond_quotes_globex.html

Click Chart for Dec 2011 (on March 2012 you can see history back to 2006)


----------



## Toronto.gal

ddkay said:


> I'm really trying not to be cynical...


I was referring to more than mere stock market comments ddkay, but also to what you said yesterday under the 'Europe and the Lost Decade' thread.

Have a little more pollyannaish optimism! 

Tutto bene!


----------



## ddkay

http://www.ifre.com/european-banks-asset-sales-face-disastrous-failure/1617239.article



> European banks are being forced to abandon their efforts to sell off trillions of euros worth of loans, mortgages and real estate after a series of talks with potential investors broke down, leaving many already struggling firms with piles of assets they can barely support.
> 
> Lenders have instead turned their attention to reducing the burden of carrying such assets over months and years, with many looking at popular pre-crisis “capital alchemy” arrangements to minimise capital requirements and boost their ability to use the assets to tap central banks for cash.
> 
> Deadlocked talks with potential buyers – a mix of private equity firms, hedge funds, foreign banks and insurers – show little sign of making breakthroughs, say bankers taking part in those negotiations, with the stalemate threatening to block the industry’s ability to save itself from collapse through a mass deleveraging.





> A funding squeeze has prompted the Draconian measures. Since the summer, most banks have been unable to tap traditional sources such as unsecured bond markets. As old debts come due – some €1.7trn will roll over in the next three years alone – banks need to find cash to avoid bankruptcy.


What I've been saying all along...


----------



## sensfan15

Awful debt auction out of Italy...get ready for another slide...Weeeeeeeeeeee!

Continuing to sit on the sidelines with my cash!!!


----------



## Four Pillars

Toronto.gal said:


> I was referring to more than mere stock market comments ddkay, but also to what you said yesterday under the 'Europe and the Lost Decade' thread.
> 
> Have a little more pollyannaish optimism!
> 
> Tutto bene!


TeeGal - Don't forget about the 'ignore' function.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Just checked my Waterhouse accounts and things could be worse... my REIT's, BCE, and bond ETF's limited the damage somewhat. 

But VTI, XIC... a bit ugly.

But like sensfan, having alot of cash on hand makes it all easier to stomach. Add to that a six figure GIC maturing in FEB... going to be fun deciding what to do with that.


----------



## ddkay

How can you be optimistic about war? It's the worst outcome possible, and even contemplating it is a sign of a completely dysfunctional society. The news flow has been absolutely ridiculous, even I'm surprised it has gotten this bad. And the scary thing is we haven't even seen capitulation volume on the daily periods yet, it's not fear that's driving this market, institutions are selling little by little, it's like the 2000-2003 market decline or the days leading up to the August crash, drip drip drip.


----------



## kcowan

Jon_Snow said:


> going to be fun deciding what to do with that.


and when!!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

ddkay said:


> How can you be optimistic about war? It's the worst outcome possible....


I did not say that at all.

I was referring to this statement you made: "We are cancer to this planet, *I'm almost sorry for being here."* 

But ok ddkay, I'll say no more, sorry I called you a pessimist. 

*FP:* thanks for the reminder.


----------



## ddkay

I knew which comment you were referring to, context is everything.. and war is not something to be proud about as something to define our generation. Anyway, I'm not here to start fights.. I said I am waiting for good news, almost everyone is hoping for a Santa rally, so think of where momemtum can take us this time, 1300+, I'll be buying with both hands

Technically charts have broken out, I might even start buying this afternoon. Put a sell stop on TNA at $35.50.


----------



## gibor365

What do you think about XRB as a hedge? I compared charts of XRB vs TSX and they are in 80-90% moving exact opposite directions....


----------



## dogcom

XRB also follows the XLB most of the time so I suppose you could also use XLB.


----------



## larry81

With interest rate near flat, this is probably the worst time to buy XLB...


----------



## HaroldCrump

gibor said:


> What do you think about XRB as a hedge? I compared charts of XRB vs TSX and they are in 80-90% moving exact opposite directions....


But don't depend on XRB to help you counter inflation.


----------



## gibor365

YTD XRB is +12.5% and TSX -15%, XLB is +9% but has better dividend about 4%


----------



## dogcom

Larry81 I wouldn't be buying either XLB or XRB at this time.


----------



## ddkay

Watch for the SP500 to hit 1190 by cash open, lots of strength tonight on that IMF report. This is exactly like October.. terrorist headlines crash the market, optimism brings it up again. Like last time the rally could also last up to 19 days. Merry Christmas!


----------



## Jungle

Wow futures up.. santa rally is here?


----------



## ddkay

Don't know for sure yet, holding above 1170 is a sure sign of strength, possibly more good news will flow into the stream this week. There are more bond auctions happening, as well as the Eurogroup+Ecofin meeting Nov 29-30. I will start Monday morning purchasing some small weekly calls and start adding to TNA on dips.


----------



## gibor365

Asian markets, WTI and NA futures are strongly up. Is it start of Santa Claus rally?
Where is S&P major resistance? 1265-1280?


----------



## Jungle

ddkay I think you live close to my work we could almost have a coffee and speculate over the markets. lol


----------



## ddkay

1372.50	Bin Laden Globex High	
1285.00	Fib Level 4.250	
1275.25	November High 
1265.00	200 Day Moving Average	
1256.00	Opening Print of the Year	
1250.00	150 Day Moving Average	
1243.00	Fib Level 2.618	
1237.00	Resistance #4 
1230.00	20 Day Moving Average	
1216.00	Fib Level 1.618: 100 Day Moving Average
1211.00	Resistance #3 
1204.00	50 Day Moving Average	
1200.00	Fib Level 1.000	
1197.75	Last Week’s High	
1190.00	Fib Level .618


----------



## KaeJS

Is it too early to start singing?

_Market Bells, Market Bells, Futures all the way...

Oh, what fun it is to ride in a Santa Clause Rall-eh, HEY!_



Ah, who knows. For all we know this might only be a one day event!


----------



## jcgd

Nice tune!


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Is it too early to start singing?
> 
> _Market Bells, Market Bells, Futures all the way...
> 
> Oh, what fun it is to ride in a Santa Clause Rall-eh, HEY!_
> 
> 
> 
> Ah, who knows. For all we know this might only be a one day event!


All depends on next rumor from EU ...


----------



## freshjiive

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mofs-nakao-japan-prepared-help-023816621.html

Good news?


----------



## KaeJS

Up 'n' Up...

DJIA now 11,381

SP500 now 1,179.20

I watched Hang Seng go from +300 to +400 in less than an hour.


----------



## dogcom

At this time of the year especially when the market is oversold, even a whisper of something good will rally the market.

In May if you just fart the market will drop when it is overbought.


----------



## sags

Probably up because of the stories circulating about the IMF loaning money to Italy and Spain at 4-5% interest rates. The story is they are prepared to ante up 800 Billion.

Questions are arising though......where does the IMF get the money.

Another story claimed the US would contribute 25% of it, but if it has to be passed by Congress it won't happen.

The markets may rally on the story and then fall back, when questions arise.

Where and how the bailouts come from changes each day.

Edit..........whoops......story changed this morning.........IMF denies bailout.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/imf-denies-plans-for-italy-bailout-20111128-1o2or.html


----------



## Jungle

What a surge s&p500 futures up 2.8% right now as I type.. hmmmm


----------



## ddkay

What if the IMF officials aren't credible? Market can't hear you! Unless we are going to war tomorrow optimism reigns. This market is like a train that leaves the station before anyone gets on.


----------



## ddkay

If this rally wants to fail it will probably start when we get around 1205. ES is up a ridiculous 35 points. 1180 is the new support. I'm scrapping the call idea for now, this mornings cash open is very important. You can see which assets are leading the rally this morning here http://finviz.com/futures.ashx


----------



## Toronto.gal

ddkay said:


> This market is like a train that leaves the station before *anyone* gets on.


Speak for yourself lil monkey [not for everyone].


----------



## ddkay

I don't know if we have reached the point of maximum pessimism yet. In the Internet sentiment I gather people are still talking about WWIII, as ridiculous and distant as it sounds, it could happen. Bears are still eager to short at 1205 so there is a 50/50 this rally continues from here. If you are week trading (not day trading) wait for a close above 1215. Ordered some gas masks from Amazon just in case...


----------



## Causalien

Can't wait for the QE3 announcement. Common PRINT!


----------



## dubmac

ddkay said:


> In the Internet sentiment I gather people are still talking about WWIII, as ridiculous and distant as it sounds, it could happen. ..


What reliable sources have suggested that WWIII could be an outcome from this downturn?

This would entail movement of forces, armies etc. I mean, when US invaded Iraq it was monthis in the making. I have not heard a thing about any potential conflict.


----------



## ddkay

The same credible sources that said Europe is solved  They weren't looking at tomorrow, 6 or 12 months out or more in time, current events are setting the stage


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> In the Internet sentiment I gather people are still talking about WWIII, as ridiculous and distant as it sounds, it could happen.


I thought WWIII was coming years ago. I'm still waiting.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I thought WWIII was coming years ago. I'm still waiting.


Just could you advise who gonna fight?!


----------



## KaeJS

I don't think there is going to be a WWIII now.

But before, I really thought there might have been, starting with the US blowing up some countries.


----------



## KaeJS

Anyway....

I thought war was good for economy? 

Not that I want there to be a war...

But if it wasn't for WWII, the Germans probably still wouldn't have any jobs or money worth anything, and mode3sour would be eating bugs on the street!


----------



## ddkay

Yeah but the question is will you survive to see the other side of that timeline? If this is what it really comes down to I would rather see them print, deflation is extremely dangerous


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I really thought there might have been, starting with the US blowing up some countries.


In order WWIII to start US should blow up no just "some countries", but the key countries like Russia, Germany, Japan, China.... 

BTW, couple of years ago when Georgia attacked Russian territory, Saakashvili was really hoping that US will send troops to fight Russians.... but US luckily got chicken out...


----------



## KaeJS

US will never blow up Germany, China, Japan.

They need them too much.

US would be dumb to fight the Russians.

If the US and Russia went to war, we'd all be in deep S.


----------



## gibor365

OK, guys and gals, stop speculating about wars, start speculating about markets  Futures are moderately down.....what will bring us tomorrow?


----------



## ddkay

For a Christmas rally a few things need to hapen - news stream needs to turn positive and have way more details, Euro sovereign debt bond yields need to pull back. Today, we had a continuation of bad news, little details, rejection of rumours, the EUR/USD made new yearly lows, BAC is extremely weak. Was this bounce justified in other ways? Sure, market internals crashed, so a short-term bottom at some point was inevitable. Can we go higher? That is anyone's guess. There is obviously way more evidence to support a sell-off scenario.


----------



## Belguy

I am getting just a tad tired of the ongoing sell-off scenario and a tad envious of those who either invested in GIC's or hid their money under the mattress.

After many, many years in the investment game, I have come to the conclusion that I have been in the wrong game all along.

I should have purchased that waterfront lot in Muskoka when I had the chance.

Coulda, shoulda, woulda!!!


----------



## webber22

There's a thread called the "Couch potato blues" (heeheehee) in the FWF forum that you might find interesting


----------



## freshjiive

haha belguy i've been in stocks for just over a month now and IM tired of the sell off scenario I can't imagine how you're feeling 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/...-may-global-economy-face-worst_n_1116055.html


----------



## gibor365

freshjiive said:


> haha belguy i've been in stocks for just over a month now and IM tired of the sell off scenario I can't imagine how you're feeling
> 
> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/...-may-global-economy-face-worst_n_1116055.html


on the other hand
"China stocks rose, driving the benchmark index up the most in two weeks, on speculation the government will take measures to bolster the economy and European leaders will boost efforts to end the debt crisis. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...y-on-economy-measures-europe-speculation.html


----------



## gibor365

End of the rally?

"U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may erase today’s rally, after S&P cut credit ratings for banks including Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 

S&P 500 futures expiring in December retreated 0.5 percent to 1,190.20 at 4:47 p.m. New York time. The index advanced 0.2 percent today. 

Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Corp. had their long-term credit rating downgraded to A- from A by S&P after the firm revised its criteria for the banking industry. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley were also cut. "


----------



## ddkay

http://www.efsf.europa.eu/mediacentre/news/2011/2011-015-maximising-efsfs-capacity-approved.htm

If this is the plan to save the EZ, I am disappointed.


----------



## KaeJS

gibor said:


> End of the rally?


Probably.


----------



## Belguy

Keep an eye on Iran. That assault on the British embassy was an act of war. As John Baird said, "it was outrageous"!!!


----------



## gibor365

Is Qe3 is coming

http://community.nasdaq.com/News/20...cted-by-march-2012-socgen.aspx?storyid=105363


----------



## ddkay

Or for a Christmas rally you need coordinated CB intervention again... ES is up 47 points from overnight lows, hit 1229, and we could see 1300 in a few days


----------



## Jon_Snow

If today ends up being as positive as the futures are indicating, I might be back to even for the year... ddkay, a December rally to 1300 would be a welcome Christmas present indeed...


----------



## ddkay

Well this isn't a proper form of QE i.e. no asset purchases/monetization, all CBs got together and lowered swap rates by 50bp, the Fed said "at present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the US dollar"

If you take a second to think about what they did, and look further out, the financial system was burning and they just threw some water on it and it's flush in liquidity again

Elliott Wave wise (EW called this move weeks ago), this is wave 5, we could see a double top but if longs are lucky it might overshoot, then it's back down again and the market could potentially lose 40% beginning in* March

For now, this is bullish until around mid-December, then it will be choppy but mostly sideways until spring.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> Elliott Wave wise (EW called this move weeks ago), this is wave 5, we could see a double top but if longs are lucky it might overshoot, then it's back down again and the market could potentially lose 40% by March


pseudo technical indicator predicting humans (world central bank) actions ... of course, make sense to me!


----------



## ddkay

larry81 what's your problem dude, just stay out of this thread you obviously have no interest in predictions. Ignore me.


----------



## larry81

*Private sector adds 206,000 jobs in November*


> NEW YORK (Reuters) - The pace of job growth in the economy's private sector accelerated in November, with U.S. employers adding 206,000 jobs, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.
> 
> The ADP National Employment Report surpassed economists' expectations for a gain of 130,000 jobs, according to a Reuters survey. October's private payrolls were revised up to an increase of 130,000 from the previously reported 110,000.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-sector-adds-206-000-132336342.html


----------



## ddkay

That's below the 300,000/month needed for a sustainable path to reemployment, encouraging improvement though


----------



## KaeJS

When I went to bed the futures were -70.

Woke up at +265. I almost choked.

Woke me up fast, though.


----------



## Abha

AWWW YEAH!!!!!!!!! Santa Clause Rally

I wish I had more of everything this morning.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Abha said:


> I wish I had more of everything this morning.


Yes you can, with the profits you'll make!


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> When I went to bed the futures were -70.
> 
> Woke up at +265. I almost choked.
> 
> Woke me up fast, though.


Same story  Talk here about TA 

Hope you didn't buy yeasterday TZA


----------



## Belguy

As I am always fully invested, I get to take the entire roller coaster ride and experience all of the downs but also fully participate in all of the ups. 

It eliminates the guesswork of trying to time the markets.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> also fully participate in all of the *ups.*


IMO, it's not exactly positive participation as you're merely recovering from your heavy losses at the moment. However, had you taken active interest in the volatility and the opportunities it has presented for a couple of years now, you would be smiling harder today! 

You never, ever miss a chance to kick the non-couch potatoes, lol.


----------



## Belguy

My comment of today wasn't putting anybody down. My point was that buy-and-holders do participate in all of the 'ups' and, if you believe that, long term, there are more ups than downs in the markets, you would have to logically conclude that you will come out ahead in the long term.

The worst practice is to sell low in the panics and then miss out on the relatively few great days on the markets due to attempts to time the markets.

What am I saying that is fundamentally wrong with this logic?

A lot of investors have ultimately given up on the markets after losing their shirts with their day trading.

I fully understand that this is not a universal experience. Sometimes, you get lucky. Sometimes, you also win the lottery.


----------



## ddkay

This market has been very rewarding to those that have bought when death is near (e.g. talking about WW3), these are type of situations where you seriously crash or get a bear market rally like the one we're in now, and the DOW is up 700 pts+ in 3 sessions.

Last night we had bank downgrades and then Shanghai was down 3.3% on poor PMI data. This morning CBs get together and inject USD liquidity because one or many banks were about to topple over. The one stock I'm watching today is BAC, this is still showing concerning weakness, it could be a lagged response or there is serious underlying damage.

Everything I say is conditional. If x, y then z. My 2012 outlook is unchanged, world wide slow down is a given the only question is intensity and length.


----------



## webber22

Goldman Sachs just came out with their top trades for 2012.

1. Going short the high yield corporate bond market in Europe by buying protection on the iTraxx Xover index
2. Short 10 year German Bunds
3. Long EUR/CHF
4. *Long Canadian Equities (S&P TSX)* vs Japanese Equities (Nikkei), FX unhedged
5. Long a Global Rebalancing Basket (CNY, MYR vs. GBP, USD)
6. Long July 2012 ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures


----------



## Abha

I'd be bearish on Cdn equities if Goldman said that.

I think its been a proven success to always go against their public recommendations as they've been known to advise their best clients to do the opposite.


----------



## dogcom

I bought a gold producer yesterday and that is now going well and I am looking to add something else here but it is hard with the market going up so much so fast.

I do think however we are now entering into a big bull trap that will severely punish everyone probably starting around Feb. 2012 so keep your money safe. I am playing in and out of the market and may continue to do so past Feb. if things look right but I do believe the next leg down will come and we will eventually go through the 2009 low when all settles out.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. My comment of today wasn't putting anybody down.
> 2. The worst practice is to sell low in the panics and then miss out..
> 3. A lot of investors have ultimately given up on the markets after losing their shirts with their day trading.
> 4. Sometimes, you get lucky.


1. I know you Mr. Belguy, whenever you talk about 'market timing', you're thinking about those who sell & prosper [they are never far from your mind & you can't deny that they irritate you, lol]. 

2. I have no arguments with some of what you said, however, those who sell in panic and without any thought, are not any kind of market timers, are they? But most patient and savvy investors don't do that. Market timing does work in volatile times, but of course not continuously over the long run, no one argues that point.

3. To lose their shirt, they were probably buying high/selling low; gambling/speculating as you like to say, but NOT investing [day/swing trading is investing].

4. Yes, but it takes a lot more than luck to succeed.


----------



## Toronto.gal

dogcom said:


> I am playing in and out of the market....


I hope Belguy is not reading this post.


----------



## Belguy

When does investing become speculating or gambling?

http://www.investorhome.com/gambling.htm

On this subject, honest people can agree to disagree as there is no bottom line definition. Thus, we could argue it until the cows come home!!


----------



## ddkay

It's mostly gambling especially when you have no clue what you're doing


----------



## Argonaut

The market is good for a laugh. In two weeks there has been no change in the price of the S&P 500. But oh wait, meanwhile there was an 8% drop and an 8% rise to compensate. Risk/reward of buying an index doesn't look so appealing to me.


----------



## Abha

Everything is gambling. Going to University for 4 years in a certain disciple is a form of gambling in that you hope that your time, money and energy will pay off in the form of a lucrative job and/or career.

Swing / Day Trading strategies when done properly are just as effective if not more so than passive and income investing.

The key is discipline and prudence. Everything else is just noise.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Argonaut said:


> The market is good for a laugh. In two weeks there has been no change in the price of the S&P 500. But oh wait, meanwhile there was an 8% drop and an 8% rise to compensate. Risk/reward of buying an index doesn't look so appealing to me.


If you math was all there was to it, you would be right. But how does your buy and hold index fund look when compared to you waiting until it is down 6% to signal you to sell and up 6% for you to feel comfortable to get back in.


----------



## Jungle

I knew it was time to buy when ddkay said he was closing his accounts at Royal Bank and SU going to $0. Then WWIII is starting. I'll also add when Bulguy went under his bed.


----------



## KaeJS

Abha said:


> Everything is gambling. Going to University for 4 years in a certain disciple is a form of gambling in that you hope that your time, money and energy will pay off in the form of a lucrative job and/or career.
> 
> Swing / Day Trading strategies when done properly are just as effective if not more so than passive and income investing.
> 
> The key is discipline and prudence. Everything else is just noise.




Kudos.


----------



## Argonaut

OptsyEagle said:


> If you math was all there was to it, you would be right. But how does your buy and hold index fund look when compared to you waiting until it is down 6% to signal you to sell and up 6% for you to feel comfortable to get back in.


Bit of a strawman argument. I'm not one for signals, I'd advocate holding quality companies and trade if it makes sense.


----------



## Eder

I wonder how market timers figure out when to buy back in? I would have hated to miss today. I'm thinking I want to miss tomorrow though.


----------



## Jon_Snow

If the November jobs report in the US knocks one out of the park tomorrow, the rally might have a bit more ooomph in it. As long my dividends continue to roll in with predictibility, I am going to stay invested for the foreseeable future. *sigh*


----------



## KaeJS

Eder said:


> I wonder how market timers figure out when to buy back in? I would have hated to miss today. I'm thinking I want to miss tomorrow though.


Really?

But there was so much bullish activity from 3-4pm?


----------



## Causalien

ddkay said:


> This market has been very rewarding to those that have bought when death is near (e.g. talking about WW3), these are type of situations where you seriously crash or get a bear market rally like the one we're in now, and the DOW is up 700 pts+ in 3 sessions.
> 
> Last night we had bank downgrades and then Shanghai was down 3.3% on poor PMI data. This morning CBs get together and inject USD liquidity because one or many banks were about to topple over. The one stock I'm watching today is BAC, this is still showing concerning weakness, it could be a lagged response or there is serious underlying damage.
> 
> Everything I say is conditional. If x, y then z. My 2012 outlook is unchanged, world wide slow down is a given the only question is intensity and length.


I would hold the same view, if retail sales isn't so strong. Everything is ****, except for consumption. The only part of retail that hasn't gone back to 2007 are automotives and furnitures/appliances. This here is a classical case of anomaly if you ask me and it demands further investigation of its implication. Obviously my gut already formed an opinion before I had time to logically layout the prime cause. Yesterday's downgrade of all banks told me I had to act today and I did. 

Sometimes, the world doesn't give you enough time to properly assess the situation and you just have to do it.


----------



## Jungle

My boys and girls at CIBC working real hard for me to make profits. I love that dividend too. I appreciate that. We'll see how the market reacts, as revenue was down, but profit surged.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Eder said:


> I wonder how market timers figure out when to buy back in? I would have hated to miss today. I'm thinking I want to miss tomorrow though.


It's quite easy. 

You see the stock market will go up today, unless there is a downdraft in equity prices. If that happens, keep a close eye on tomorrow. That will bring a short covering rally provided the bears don't overpower it with major dumping. What I do is look to Europe and cross reference the TED Spread to the overnight LIBOR. If that ratio ticks up there is about a 50% chance stocks will advance.

You see...easy.lol.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Ditto Jungle! 

Many hate this stock for legitimate reasons I suppose, however, it has done very well for me; my only bank since age 18.


----------



## Eder

OptsyEagle said:


> It's quite easy.
> 
> You see the stock market will go up today, unless there is a downdraft in equity prices. If that happens, keep a close eye on tomorrow. That will bring a short covering rally provided the bears don't overpower it with major dumping. What I do is look to Europe and cross reference the TED Spread to the overnight LIBOR. If that ratio ticks up there is about a 50% chance stocks will advance.
> 
> You see...easy.lol.


Haha....so you exploit your apparent edge over numerous iterations till the theory of large numbers guarantees a profitable return in the long run?


----------



## Causalien

Martingale loses only if there's a neutral no win mode with that strategy..


----------



## Jungle

Toronto.gal said:


> Ditto Jungle!
> 
> Many hate this stock for legitimate reasons I suppose, however, it has done very well for me; my only bank since age 18.


When I search this stock on TD Waterhouse, it shows that CM has had the highest EPS growth % in the last 5 years. 

Their branches have been redone and look nice.


----------



## Spudd

I tried to buy CM the other day, it was in a downtrend so I set the limit buy a few cents below the current price. It of course proceeded to take off like a rocket without me!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Spudd said:


> I set the limit buy *a few cents* below the current price.


How many were you attempting to buy? If let's say you were buying 100 shares and set it for $.10 cents less than market, that would have only been a $10 savings.

Unless you're buying in high volume or less expensive shares, don't let a few cents steal a good buy. Better luck next time [you know the market will come down again].


----------



## Spudd

Yup, I was buying 100 shares. Lesson learned!


----------



## Jungle

Where did ddkay go? Usually he posts about 10 news articles per day here.


----------



## dogcom

Toronto.gal if I really like something and need to own it I will go in at market. I actually rarely use limit orders anymore and will get it if I want it because usually it will be at a superior time on a technical basis that I will want to own it.

I am able to do this now that trading costs are lower. A few years back because of high fees I needed every extra cent I could get because the fees set you so far back to begin with.


----------



## Belguy

Dow just had it's second best weekly point gain in history!!

We're in the money!!!


----------



## dogcom

Secular bear markets usually have the best rallies in history but you still lose. Think about it, 100 to 50 is a 50% loss and 50 to 100 is a 100% gain.


----------



## Belguy

Now I know why it takes so long to make up market losses!!! How long will it take to make up this year's losses?

Interesting that the jobs numbers looked somewhat worse in Canada today and somewhat better in the U.S.


----------



## donald

I read auto sales were up also(us),and surprisingly suvs and trucks were leading-consumers are getting more relaxed obviously,anybody else catch that?I thought suvs were declining rapidly. not so.


----------



## Belguy

Part way through, recession fatigue starts to set in where people are tired of not spending and decide to treat themselves to a new vehicle or whatever.

The scrimping and saving starts to get a little tiresome.

Also, the 50/50 strategy for conservative investors:

http://moneyland.time.com/2011/11/2...-the-economy-looks-like/?iid=pf-main-mostpop1


----------



## donald

im full on equities.No bonds for me in my portfolio(do have cash thou at a level)I cant see why anyone under 35 would have bonds.If your going to live till 90.Why does everybody think it ends @ 55-60.....shouldnt someone always have some exposure?That article is funny thou,mind you i guess if you were making 250k plus a yr your clear....no riding the elevator which would be nice.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> Where did ddkay go? Usually he posts about 10 news articles per day here.


Market is not bearish enough for him so he must have disappeared. He's probably wondering why SU went up again today...



donald said:


> im full on equities.No bonds for me in my portfolio.


Ditto. 

Hell, I still have 14 years before I am even 35. That's about 2 market cycles!


----------



## Toronto.gal

dogcom said:


> Toronto.gal if I really like something and need to own it I will go in at market.... I am able to do this now that trading costs are lower.


Same here dogcom, I don't sweat the small stuff either, that's just for newbies.  Pennies count only when I'm trading in very high volume of smaller stocks.

And yes, thank goodness for the low trading costs, it really allows us to do so much more!


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> Market is not bearish enough for him.....


LOL, that's exactly what I thought. I think a little time off is good; I do that sometimes too when someone here annoys me.


----------



## donald

Just think kaejs....you have a shot at seeing 2100!Touch over 100yrs old.Thinking from that standpoint **** thats happening in 2011 doesnt even register.

Im hoping im going to make 2080.....were young bucks....we can learn and f up.

Weather im standing or all there is another thing thou.


----------



## Argonaut

I think I'll probably croak in 2072. Do you think the S&P 500 will hit 1300 by then?


----------



## KaeJS

donald said:


> Just think kaejs....you have a shot at seeing 2100!Touch over 100yrs old.Thinking from that standpoint **** thats happening in 2011 doesnt even register.
> 
> Im hoping im going to make 2080.....were young bucks....we can learn and f up.
> 
> Weather im standing or all there is another thing thou.


LOL.

There's no way I'll make it to 110.

I'll probably cop out soon after Argo around 2075. I eat garbage, drink beer and smoke cigars. But what the hell... might as well live like I'll make it to 2100.


----------



## dogcom

Ddkay may indeed be hiding or hibernating until the bear returns. I am also bearish but not right now being the jolly time of the year and I also believe we need to set up a nice bull trap. Even though I am bearish I do not like to go short because central banks and such use that short money to put more bang into a rally. This may be the problem ddkay has where he rightfully went short but then got spanked by the central banks.


----------



## Homerhomer

Jungle said:


> Where did ddkay go? Usually he posts about 10 news articles per day here.


I have come to rely on him to post all the news here, now I have to actually go to different sites and look for it myself!?!! What is the world coming to!!???? Not fair, he's got to giddyup and do the work, so I don't have to


----------



## larry81

*Italian cabinet approves austerity measures*


> Italy’s new government has approved emergency austerity and growth measures aimed at helping save the euro from collapse.
> 
> Premier Mario Monti announced approval of the measures Sunday evening after a three-hour cabinet meeting. He said the goal is to “reawaken” the Italian economy.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...t-approves-austerity-measures/article2259522/


----------



## larry81

*Iran says it shot down unmanned U.S. spy plane*


> TEHRAN, Iran (AP) – Iran's armed forces have shot down an unmanned U.S. spy plane that violated Iranian airspace along the country's eastern border, the official IRNA news agency reported Sunday.
> 
> An unidentified military official quoted in the report warned of a strong and crushing response to any violations of the country's airspace by American drone aircraft.


http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-12-04/iran-drone/51641780/1


----------



## KaeJS

^ This is good news.

Santa Rally continues?

Edit: My post came a little late, larry.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> ^ This is good news.
> 
> Santa Rally continues?
> 
> Edit: My post came a little late, larry.


Its a big week for euro soap opera !


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> ^ This is good news.


Didn't suspect that taking down US plane by Iran is a good news for you


----------



## KaeJS

Futures and Asia Markets open in positive territory.


----------



## Belguy

Did anyone catch this week's '60 Minutes' about the alleged fraud committed at Countryside and Citi Bank and the fact that not a single executive of either firm has been charged by the U.S. Justice Department let alone sent to jail? 

This is pretty scary stuff to think that such fraud could take place at the highest levels of such huge organizations resulting in zero arrests or imprisonments.

Unbelievable!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7390540n&tag=cbsnewsMainColumnArea.7

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7390542n&tag=cbsnewsMainColumnArea.7


----------



## Rommel

larry81 said:


> *Iran says it shot down unmanned U.S. spy plane*
> 
> 
> http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-12-04/iran-drone/51641780/1


Tough talk to rally support at home.

Iran cannot in any way deliver a crushing blow. The United States would roflstomp the Iranians if push comes to shove. At a cost... well who knows how large but Iran is insane to think they stand a chance against Israel, much less the US. Why do they want nuclear arms? To maintain their course to insanity without fear of recourse.

In other news, I'm still optimistic about Suncor


----------



## Jungle

Rally continues today on Italy austerity measures? s&p500 futures up 0.9%.


----------



## Belguy

The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all now positive for the year.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that they really haven't done much for the past 10 years other than taking us on a wild roller coaster ride!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Mr. Belguy: for just one day, just concentrate on the positive side of the news. Go out for a nice long walk; inhale some cool, fresh air & buy yourself a treat! The bad stuff won't run away, it will wait for you, so don't you worry!


----------



## Belguy

Being basically back where we were ten years ago, I am now worried that history will repeat itself with potentially another lost decade for the indexes!

I have found that getting some fresh air doesn't change the situation much.

The point is that the markets are basically going nowhere in a hurry!!

Buy, hold and hold and hold and hold and wait and hope and try to remain positive while not much changes!!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

No, fresh air does not help the markets, lol, but in cool weather, it would sure clean your lungs a little!


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Yes, it can take decades for risk taking to work out...

http://www.rickferri.com/blog/markets/expect-years-of-pain-before-market-gain/


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> Being basically back where we were ten years ago


Why do you keep perpetuating these false notions?

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:OSPTX

Dec 7 2001 - TSX=7416.56
Dec 5 2011 - TSX=12,224.10


----------



## Four Pillars

Sampson said:


> Why do you keep perpetuating these false notions?


Because he's a troll.


----------



## Causalien

He might have some merit if you factor in real inflation. I believe shadowstats shows this. I saw a CPI adjusted (based on 1980 accounting) market value in passing.


----------



## humble_pie

not really a troll. More like those elderly couples where husband sits in the recliner watching tv & reading the newspaper. Wife is upstairs, kitchen, garden, another room, but def far away.

every few minutes hubby erupts like old faithful & starts shouting out a snippet of news.

she doesn't hear anything though because she stopped listening in 1952.


----------



## Four Pillars

humble_pie said:


> not really a troll. More like those elderly couples where husband sits in the recliner watching tv & reading the newspaper. Wife is upstairs, kitchen, garden, another room, but def far away.
> 
> every few minutes hubby erupts like old faithful & starts shouting out a snippet of news.
> 
> she doesn't hear anything though because she stopped listening in 1952.


Lol.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> she doesn't hear anything though because she stopped listening in 1952.


Aha, she's the one that goes out for fresh air.


----------



## ddkay

To clear up misconceptions, I'm not short, I closed out my TNA bulls last Wednesday. I've called for a ~10% Christmas rally that wouldn't necessarily last until Christmas since:

Nov 24: http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=97403&postcount=711
Nov 25: http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=97645&postcount=1841
and I gave a longer term forecast here on Nov 30: http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=98538&postcount=1889

That last one marked mid-December as a turning point based on a timing only model. It doesn't tell direction. Brussels summit on the 9th could be why.

Only advice I can give is try not investing based on yesterday's news, tone down the flames, try to differentiate between a person's absolute and conditional statements (hot tip, scan for "if").

Re Belguy, the S&P500 indeed is only 121pts above its level 10 years ago today, but you've made 29% with dividends. If you're ever talking about "the market" remember to specify which index you refer to.

I'm actually way above my expectations for the year so I'm taking a break. I left you with some probable short and long term views, good luck managing your risk and adeiu for now..


----------



## Jungle

Hey ddkay welcome back!


----------



## Belguy

Dow 1930 to 1983----not too impressive!!

Dow 1983 to 2000----now THOSE were the days!! 

Dow 2000 to 2011----choppy and basically going nowhere.

Dow 2011 to 2021----you pays your money and you takes your chances.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^dji+interactive#symbol=^dji;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;


----------



## Belguy

The Italian Labour Minister broke down and cried as she discussed needed reforms to the country's pension system including an increase in the minimum age to qualify.

S&P puts 15 European countries, including France and Germany, on negative credit watch with a 50/50 chance of a downgrade within the next three months. Any new hurdles in Europe is bad news.

Goldman announces that Europe is heading for a "severe recession".

Carney says that Europe is "barely contained".

Any solution of any consequence will take years!!

Why then are equities up in the last few days? It is because equity investors always reside in the land of hope!!


----------



## ddkay

Belguy I'm concerned about your health. I think you need a break as well, there is little sense trying to interpret this news unless you are an active trader, in which case you are reading these headlines hours or days too late (the IT labour minister crying is from Saturday) and is indeed already priced in.

You'll know a real bull is back when BoC starts worrying about rampant domestic growth and raises interest rates to cool things off. You'll know a real bull is back when King Dollar loses its throne and the VIX falls below 20. You'll know a real bull is back when we revolutionize energy that can take us forward centuries instead of decades.

For now, just stay put in cash, maybe find new hobbies and live your life a little instead of worrying the numbers in your bank account, after all you are retired! Several people in my family your age have already passed away, life is short and you'll probably be happier if you spend less time in frustration.


----------



## Belguy

Maybe you are right, ddkay. I have decided to take a vacation from posting here at least until the New Year.

I can hear the cheering from here!!

Y'all have a very Merry Christmas and let's hope for a more prosperous 2012!!

I'll still check in from time to time to see what others are posting.


----------



## webber22

Merry Christmas everyone !





*Buy, Hold, and Suffer ™*


----------



## Jon_Snow

Christmas came early for some (most?) this year it seems. For myself, it certainly has. A bit mean spirited perhaps... But Mr. Doom's posts do begin to grate on ones nerves over time.

I do wish you a sincere happy holidays Belguy, and hope you manage to find some semblance of PEACE and JOY in your life. I mean this.


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Maybe you are right, ddkay. I have decided to take a vacation from posting here at least until the New Year.


Don't forget to come back in 2012, buddy.

Cheers.


----------



## sags

The politicians can ink whatever deal they want. 

The real question is if their citizens will accept the austerity measures, that they personally will suffer, to bail out bond holders and banks.

That question is as yet............unanswered.


----------



## hboy43

Belguy said:


> The Italian Labour Minister broke down and cried as she discussed needed reforms to the country's pension system including an increase in the minimum age to qualify.


The whole retirement/pension issue has to be a problem with the most obvious (and reasonable) solution of any current issue. Back when Bismark decreed retirement age to be 65, life expectancy was 64. Now for a Canadian, life expectancy from birth is something like 78 or 79, and the conditional life expectancy given someone has survived to 65 would be some 3 or 4 years (at a guess) longer. The math of working about 40 years and not working about 40 years (ie ages 0-20, and 60-80) just doesn't pan out unless we all agree to commit about half (say 40 to 50%) our pre-tax income to taxes and/or savings dedicated to looking after those non-working years. We are nowhere near this level.

We clearly need to die younger, work longer, or pay up. Take your pick. As people likely don't want to pay out say 60 to 70% of pre tax income (that is about 40 - 50 percentage points to fund 40 years of non working life, plus about another 20 points to fund everything else government does), we are practically speaking reduced to the first two options. Most will take option 1 off the table, leaving the winner: WE HAVE TO COLLECTIVELY WORK LONGER. 

I believe this is the single largest unspoken, unacknowledged truth about modern life. Not much will happen towards solving our financial problems until this truth takes traction amongst the general population. We are probably 10 or 20 years away yet.

hboy43

hboy


----------



## Causalien

I am absolutely disgusted at Eurobanks right now. They are writing CDS against themselves to get cash.


----------



## Dmoney

You have to admire their ingenuity


----------



## fatcat

> We clearly need to die younger, work longer, or pay up. Take your pick. As people likely don't want to pay out say 60 to 70% of pre tax income (that is about 40 - 50 percentage points to fund 40 years of non working life, plus about another 20 points to fund everything else government does), we are practically speaking reduced to the first two options. Most will take option 1 off the table, leaving the winner: WE HAVE TO COLLECTIVELY WORK LONGER.
> 
> I believe this is the single largest unspoken, unacknowledged truth about modern life. Not much will happen towards solving our financial problems until this truth takes traction amongst the general population. We are probably 10 or 20 years away yet.


 i got a better idea ... live for experience not to accumulate ... forget overpriced housing stock and forget all the useless crap and $5 latte's ... live more simply ... this is a much better way to go imo ... most of us could spend 50% of what we spend now and enjoy life just as much ... the only reason we end up spending all this money is because every other idiot does it ... maybe we need to decide not to become consumer rats on the treadmill


----------



## Sampson

fatcat said:


> forget all the useless crap and $5 latte's


Some (myself included) would argue that quality of experience and sensory perception obtained from drinking a beautiful prepared cup of coffee IS living .

I would never pay $5 for a latte, but I would invest a good amount of money for an espresso machine.


----------



## Eder

Sampson said:


> I would never pay $5 for a latte, but I would invest a good amount of money for an espresso machine.



I spent $1200 on my espresso machine, a bit less on my pasta maker...these are necessary for life!


----------



## fatcat

> I spent $1200 on my espresso machine, a bit less on my pasta maker...these are necessary for life!


 no sweat ... glad you are enjoying it ... but, know that the price you pay may be working longer and retiring older ... so the price for that machine is really a lot more than $1200


----------



## madeincanada

Anyone want to take a guess on how this month will play out. Seems like S&P 500 wants to take out 1300 no matter what comes out the next two days.


----------



## Jon_Snow

If the S&P does that, it might be the best present I get this year.


----------



## larry81

Tommorow should be interesting


----------



## londoncalling

fatcat said:


> no sweat ... glad you are enjoying it ... but, know that the price you pay may be working longer and retiring older ... so the price for that machine is really a lot more than $1200


or you could drop dead tomorrow... It's all about finding a balance... If you paid $1200 cash for it then so be it. Who's to say that the market doesn't pull a "Japan" on us and we are stagnant for decades. Or that same purchase made prior the Lehman fiasco would look like a pretty good return on investment not even counting the savings from purchasing latte's for $5 which would only = 240 lattes, not even a year's consumption at 1 a day.

I hope you view this post KAEJS... as you struggle with this concept greatly. (However, you have been able to save on a percent basis what would take me 2 or 3x longer so maybe I should pull a page from your playbook as well)

Cheers!


----------



## blin10

fatcat said:


> no sweat ... glad you are enjoying it ... but, know that the price you pay may be working longer and retiring older ... so the price for that machine is really a lot more than $1200


what's the point of saving all your life if you can die tomorrow without enjoying it? there needs to be a balance


----------



## KaeJS

londoncalling said:


> I hope you view this post KAEJS... as you struggle with this concept greatly. (However, you have been able to save on a percent basis what would take me 2 or 3x longer so maybe I should pull a page from your playbook as well)
> 
> Cheers!


Just wanted to let you know that I saw this post, london. 

And yes, it's about balance.

I understand what you are saying, but the way I see it is that if I drop dead tomorrow, I'm not going to know I'm dead.

With that being said, I am worried about being paralyzed! 

But if I take my chances in the stock market, I might as well take my chances at life, right?

My issue is that I can't enjoy the present if I am not saving. I feel guilty when I spend, and that's a very hard feeling to change. Guilt is sort of like jealousy in that way.


----------



## scomac

hboy43 said:


> We clearly need to die younger, work longer, or pay up. Take your pick. As people likely don't want to pay out say 60 to 70% of pre tax income (that is about 40 - 50 percentage points to fund 40 years of non working life, plus about another 20 points to fund everything else government does...


What makes you think many aren't doing this already, especially those who have been maximizing their RRSP contributions? The Fraser Institute calculates Tax Freedom Day to have occurred on June 5 this past year. Add in the 18% contribution rate to maximize your RRSP annually and voila, we are at 60% of gross income.


----------



## KaeJS

Judging by the market today,

It appears we are still screwed?


----------



## Jon_Snow

U.S. jobless claim numbers were surprisingly good - which means that the tanking futures indicate that only the debacle in Europe really matters to the markets. Same old, same old......


----------



## fatcat

> what's the point of saving all your life if you can die tomorrow without enjoying it? there needs to be a balance


i agree it is all about balance but in the context of how long you are going to work and when you are going to retire, the full and real cost of things you buy needs to be known ... 

if you buy the machine at age 30, then that same $1200 invested at 5% over 30 years brings $5361.29 at age 60 ... 

none of this ever gets talked about ... just the "man, i really want that cool machine" part

and this is exactly what a consumption-based society is all about


----------



## Assetologist

KaeJS said:


> Judging by the market today,
> 
> It appears we are still screwed?


You covering for Belguy during the holiday season?


----------



## Jungle

Actually I want the market to die so I can keep buying more.


----------



## gibor365

Jungle said:


> Actually I want the market to die so I can keep buying more.


and what if market continue dying after you bought more 

BTW, what are you buying.... ?!

I'm just selling what I bought 2 weeks ago locking some profit.... obviously all long positions are down, except probably BCE and bonds..

If tomorrow market is sinking 300-400 points on EU summit, maybe I'll add to some positions...


----------



## Assetologist

I can answer that, if I may, 
"Buy more!" and when it gets really scary "Buy more!". 

Easier said then done but doable with the right plan and fortitude.


----------



## dogcom

When I did the forum sentiment survey we mostly thought the market would rise in the short term so it looks like we may also be the same as the general public.

That said I think we should go higher in the short term but you never can tell in this crazy environment.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Assetologist said:


> You covering for Belguy during the holiday season?


Thanks for a good chuckle Assetologist; just what I needed. 

*dogcom:* you're right, crazy times indeed.


----------



## Jon_Snow

God bless BCE (and the fact that I own a good chunk).


----------



## londoncalling

KaeJS said:


> Just wanted to let you know that I saw this post, london.
> 
> With that being said, I am worried about being paralyzed!


I totally understand your reason to be worried about paralysis... I was never worried about those types of things at your age. I felt immortal and invincible... However about 5 years ago I was unable to do my job due to genetic back issues. I never imagined this situation would be thrown upon me. I did have disability through my employer and lots of available credit. It took almost a year to get my disability payout. For that reason alone I realized the importance of emergency savings. I was able to get by but things were tough. My spouse and I made lots of sacrifices and we did establish some debt as a result. I will never let that happen again.




KaeJS said:


> But if I take my chances in the stock market, I might as well take my chances at life, right?


People take chances in different ways and who's to say who is right. There are varying degrees of risk tolerance and that applies to life just as much as investing. No matter what one decides they have to live with those choices. I am guessing the spenders will eventually have more regrets than the savers but that is just my opinion and worth the amount you paid to read it. 



KaeJS said:


> My issue is that I can't enjoy the present if I am not saving. I feel guilty when I spend, and that's a very hard feeling to change. Guilt is sort of like jealousy in that way.


 I think Shakespeare said it best when he said "To thine own self be true."
Both jealousy and guilt are evil monsters. Sometimes they are necessary evils and other times they are unnecessarily self imposed punishments. Just don't let that punishment become a life sentence.

IMO Kaejs... You're doing just fine. Keep up the good work and don't be so critical of yourself... (if you can)


----------



## KaeJS

Assetologist said:


> You covering for Belguy during the holiday season?


Yeah. I'm quite bearish right now.

And I just bought some stocks on margin that ended up falling a bit. I thought I would be able to make a quick couple bucks here and there, but I mucked it up.



londoncalling said:


> IMO Kaejs... You're doing just fine. Keep up the good work and don't be so critical of yourself... (if you can)


Thank you.


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> God bless BCE (and the fact that I own a good chunk).


And yes, this was a beautiful surprise today.


----------



## Jungle

gibor said:


> and what if market continue dying after you bought more
> 
> BTW, what are you buying.... ?!
> 
> I'm just selling what I bought 2 weeks ago locking some profit.... obviously all long positions are down, except probably BCE and bonds..
> 
> If tomorrow market is sinking 300-400 points on EU summit, maybe I'll add to some positions...


Buying BNS, international index e and want to buy cdn index e next week, only if tsx is in 11XXX.


----------



## Jungle

Jon_Snow said:


> God bless BCE (and the fact that I own a good chunk).


Amen to that and ENB. Maybe the banks too except BMO which is in the dawg house right now.


----------



## KaeJS

Only in the dog house for now.

Then, once people realize they are still earning more profit than they ever have and the dividend is 5%, it will come out of the dog house.

And hopefully I can flip my recently purchased shares for $100.


----------



## gibor365

Jungle said:


> Buying BNS, international index e and want to buy cdn index e next week, only if tsx is in 11XXX.


Just today contributed into my daughter RESP 5K...it's pretty conservative now...about 60% of holdings: Monthly income, Real return bond, short term bond and Cdn bond e ...
As in my opinion market now is very cheap and money will be needed in 6-7 years, was planning to split this 5K : US entertainment, US Index e. and Cdn index e, Cdn balanced index....


----------



## KaeJS

What in the hell is going on?

I have no clue what is happening right now.

Asian markets are dying, But DJIA futures are +55 and SP futures are +6?

I don't even see any new news....


----------



## Lephturn

This: Leaders holding all-night talks in Brussels added 200 billion euros ($267 billion) to their crisis-fighting warchest and tightened anti-deficit rules, an accord hailed by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi as a “very good outcome.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-ecb-chief-damps-bond-buying-speculation.html


----------



## KaeJS

Down, down, down....?

Credit Crunch

Earnings


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Down, down, down....?
> 
> Credit Crunch
> 
> Earnings


Who knows?!
So far, Saudi index slightly down, NZ and Emirates slightly up, Tel Aviv strong up +1.5%

Markets are diven by news/rumors. Couple of negative news - impression that this is end of the world. couple of good ones - impression that all problems are close to solution.
I'm planning on market dips add more to my existing position especially on solid dividend payers, like Canadian banks, US dividend champions like PG, JNJ, MO, T, ABT...lately added shares ro RCI.B


----------



## gibor365

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/201...-this-thomas-lee-sees-stocks-soaring-in-2012/


----------



## Jon_Snow

One can wish. I have a 100k GIC maturing in Feb... could I actually catch a rip roaring 2012 market surge with these funds?

These things don't happen to me.


----------



## webber22

Careful this week - they'll be a ton of stocks dropping in price due to the ex-div date, like the SPY:US on Friday which normally tricks out a lot of newb investors. Based on my analysis, this week should close out flat to slightly lower, all to cause maximum options pain


----------



## Belguy

Miss me yet??


----------



## Jon_Snow

Knew you couldn't stay away. 

And no to your question.


----------



## Uranium101

Market forecasters make fortune tellers look good.

There are 3 types of market forecasters:
1) They don't know
2) They don't know they don't know
3) They know damn well that they don't know, but will make big bucks from pretending to know.

If you could forecast the market, why do you need to earn those $100/month subscription fees?

Just random things I picked up over the course of years.


----------



## leoc2

Belguy said:


> Miss me yet??


I did ... Signed: "Coalition of old farts".


----------



## kcowan

Uranium101 said:


> If you could forecast the market, why do you need to earn those $100/month subscription fees?


Because PT Barnum was right!


----------



## Dibs

Looks like the sky is falling again. What happened to the Santa Rally?


----------



## gibor365

Thinking to buy again TCK.B in low 34's for a quick trade, ... and buy a little bit equity MF in my doughter RESP


----------



## 50invester

Uranium101 said:


> Market forecasters make fortune tellers look good.
> 
> There are 3 types of market forecasters:
> 1) They don't know
> 2) They don't know they don't know
> 3) They know damn well that they don't know, but will make big bucks from pretending to know.
> 
> If you could forecast the market, why do you need to earn those $100/month subscription fees?
> 
> Just random things I picked up over the course of years.


Great post ... Bloodsucking hucksters, every one of them. When I think of all the money I have lost listening too these pinheads, it would have been more satisfying to have just burned the cash in the fireplace.


----------



## KaeJS

What do you think guys and gals?

Looks like a bit of a slaughterhouse tomorrow...

Futures are not bright.


----------



## Mockingbird

Everyone's watching the unfolding news of Kim Jung Il's death.

MB


----------



## madeincanada

Mockingbird said:


> Everyone's watching the unfolding news of Kim Jung Il's death.
> 
> MB


Nah, I am watching BAC today at that $5 level.


----------



## stephenheath

leoc2 said:


> I did ... Signed: "Coalition of old farts".


Middle age farts agreeing with our elders, we missed him too


----------



## KaeJS

I'm calling for a down day tomorrow.

Hope I am wrong, though.


----------



## KaeJS

Looks like the rest of the world is in the green for 2012 so far. Asian markets are up by quite a bit.

Let's hope all goes well and it translates over to the North American markets.



Good luck to everyone tomorrow!


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> Looks like the rest of the world is in the green for 2012 so far. Asian markets are up by quite a bit.
> 
> Let's hope all goes well and it translates over to the North American markets.
> 
> 
> 
> Good luck to everyone tomorrow!


it looks like the whole week will be like that .
keep an eye on france bonds selling and all other indicators.
the rally is on very thin volume
dont forget that.
i am trading oil tomorrow


----------



## KaeJS

Weeoooo!

DJIA Futures up 190 pts.

MT up 7.69% Premarket.


----------



## Jungle

SquareRoot is buying stocks today, that's why the markets are up


----------



## dotnet_nerd

GO RIM! Yessiree


----------



## Jungle

Whoa was that you doing all that buying today kaeJs? lol


----------



## marina628

Bought nothing but got out of AAPL ,made total of $248 on 20 shares I owned.


----------



## gibor365

Almost of my equities are up today, except telecoms... and MO-N is down 3.6%  (even though PM was up) what the hell happened?! all Americans quit smoking and drinking 

I'm in doubt know, to buy more MO on dip, or sell and lock my 10% gain


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> Almost of my equities are up today, except telecoms... and MO-N is down 3.6%  (even though PM was up) what the hell happened?! all Americans quit smoking and drinking
> 
> I'm in doubt know, to buy more MO on dip, or sell and lock my 10% gain


hehe
to buy or not to buy.
that is the question.
Gibor in all honesty my friend if numbers keep coming nicely , mkts will go higher.
nevertheless basically everything gapped up today.
i am still short.
volume was thin as usual.
i want to see when the real bad news hit the wires .


----------



## newbie

marina628 said:


> Bought nothing but got out of AAPL ,made total of $248 on 20 shares I owned.


that is a damn hefty profit


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> Almost of my equities are up today, except telecoms... and MO-N is down 3.6%  (even though PM was up) what the hell happened?! all Americans quit smoking and drinking
> 
> I'm in doubt know, to buy more MO on dip, or sell and lock my 10% gain


u mean MO gapped down.
any bad news on this particular stock?
yes it is consumer staples stock.
today was risk on Gibor, unless something else is going on.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> Whoa was that you doing all that buying today kaeJs? lol


Definite no-no.

For the time being, a lot of stocks are actually a bit too pricey.


----------



## KaeJS

marina628 said:


> Bought nothing but got out of AAPL ,made total of $248 on 20 shares I owned.


I currently own 10 shares with a $430 profit, Unrealized.

I am waiting until Earnings to sell. I don't think they will beat estimates.... but then again, it was Christmas. Crazier things have happened.

Either way, if the earnings are good or bad, I am still selling lol


----------



## gibor365

newbie said:


> u mean MO gapped down.
> any bad news on this particular stock?
> yes it is consumer staples stock.
> today was risk on Gibor, unless something else is going on.


From what I found out MO is sharply down because of the article in Barron
"_Altria MO-N is among a small handful of S&P 500 stocks performing poorly today, stung by a Barron's article pointing out the company's key Marlboro brand is losing market share in an already declining market. That, combined with a lofty valuation for a "value" stock, may not be a great mix"_

I don't think I should sell it as I' receiving dividends about 5.5% and MO is a dividend champion who increasing dividends for many-many years...


----------



## marina628

I was just happy to get out , bought some for 380 and other lot for $408!


----------



## Paul75

I think, downfall in EUR/USD will continue tomorrow as well.


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> I'm in doubt know, to buy more MO on dip, or sell and lock my 10% gain


Rosenberg just listed such stocks as #7 on his 2012 theme, saying [on the Lang & O'Leary show], that people will always drink, smoke & go to the movies. 

I never knew that before, lol.


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> Rosenberg just listed such stocks as #7 on his 2012 theme, saying [on the Lang & O'Leary show], that people will always drink, smoke & go to the movies.
> 
> I never knew that before, lol.


Strongly agree with "drink, smoke", but disagree with "go to the movies"  Why to go if you can download any movie and watch while doing first 2 activities (I mean drink, smoke )


----------



## kcowan

Yes I agree that "watch movies" is something to invest in but "go to movies" is tenuous at best.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I don't think he meant that literally, but one can still invest in movies via other ways. 

I invest in DIS for example.


----------



## ddkay

I duno anymore guys, unless we get a few sizable pullbacks in equities soon I'm starting to feel really bullish. NFP tomorrow and earnings season begins Monday. UniCredit lost 30% of its market cap in the last 2 days but correlations are all off and it seems stock markets are putting anything about Europe on the back burner. We're up 30 pts from last week on the S&P and 1310 seems like the next logical stop.

Sovereign downgrades are expected any day before the upcoming EU summit at the end of January. Almost every indicator you look at says we're overbought, but as history tells sentiment can be stretched to extremes for long periods of time


----------



## Belguy

One of the best investments for 2012 may be U.S. treasuries:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...bonds-are-still-the-way-to-go/article2292539/

Another perspective on bonds:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...orate-bonds-are-looking-safer/article2293043/


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> I duno anymore guys, unless we get a few sizable pullbacks in equities soon I'm starting to feel really bullish.
> 
> Almost every indicator you look at says we're overbought, but as history tells sentiment can be stretched to extremes for long periods of time


Overbought in the short term.

Oversold in the long term.

I am not buying. I am not selling.

P.S. Glad to have you back.


----------



## ddkay

Thanks Kaejs. I'm still sitting on my hands for now too, having trouble reading the market with all correlations broken. If the ECB's refinancing operations (LTRO) are working I don't understand why US Treasuries are still getting bid at 6-month highs. There should not be such strong appetite for risk-free investments in a risk-on environment.

So if we are in risk-on, treasuries look expensive. The 30-Year is up about 14% since July, I wouldn't want to be holding those when equities start to rally.

Whatever signal you get depends on the indicators settings. The three variables in FullStochs for example are Lookback periods, smoothing, MA. I like using 30,10,10. Adjusting these up or down will change sensitivity and should help you from fighting the tape in a raging bull market.


----------



## ddkay

I should also mention a weak euro is the best news ever for Germany, they have the largest manufacturing base in Europe. It don't see any reason the EURUSD slide should stop if politicians are able to accommodate it with LTRO, maybe a stall here and there, but if there is one certain trade for LTRO success it's to short EURUSD near 2010 lows of 1.19/1.20.


----------



## Montyswe

Right now I dont care about the market - because of this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ5yQx66M7g


----------



## Jon_Snow

Wow, good job numbers out of the States this morning.... doesn't mean that good times are ahead necessarlily, but encouraging I guess. Still going to sit on my pile of cash though.


----------



## madeincanada

Good time to sell some on this good jobs report.


----------



## ddkay

Obama's a job machine

@Montyswe lol congrats


----------



## HaroldCrump

ddkay said:


> Obama's a job machine


Strange...as soon as the 2012 election campaigns are starting up, the job numbers start improving 2 - 3 months in a row.
Wonder if it's a co-incidence, must be, no other explanation.


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> Wonder if it's a co-incidence, must be, no other explanation.


Of course, it's just pure & unadulterated collaboration, ooopps, I meant co-incidence.


----------



## Eder

With the vaudeville show the Republicans have provided over the last 6-8 months I'm pretty sure Obama with have his 2nd term without needing juiced stats like these.

Hope I'm wrong though.


----------



## gibor365

The S&P 500 jumped 1.8% in the first five trading days of the year, so legend tells us 2012 will be a positive year for stocks. The market has never fallen in a year when the first five days added 1.8% or more, and most of those gains were strong - if any real conclusions can be made from an event that's happened only 17 times in history


----------



## Belguy

But trading volumes have been very light!!


----------



## ddkay

Next stop for ES is 1300! More resistance at that level, if we plow through it, I'm going to be foamy at the mouth bullish 'cause we're retesting 2011 highs.


----------



## KaeJS

Rally?


----------



## Eder

KaeJS said:


> Rally?


Haha I dunno about everyone else but I've been enjoying a Santa rally for weeks now.


----------



## blin10

isn't it funny how I don't hear a word about Europe problems any more on main stream sites... i'll be putting on shorts very soon if we keep going higher


----------



## KaeJS

Eder said:


> Haha I dunno about everyone else but I've been enjoying a Santa rally for weeks now.


Me too! 

I just really want the market to stay flat right now.

I dont want it to go up, or down. If it stays flat, I'm happy.


----------



## jwsmith519

blin10 said:


> isn't it funny how I don't hear a word about Europe problems any more on main stream sites... i'll be putting on shorts very soon if we keep going higher


You might want to keep an eye on the Italian bond. Mark off Friday the 13th because there is an Italian bond auction mid-long term bonds. So I think you'll start hearing more of Europe as Friday nears.


----------



## dubmac

anybody read this "crash is coming" article by Harry Dent? Is this guy a crackpot or a wise man?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...t-for-a-crash-forecaster-says/article2298020/


----------



## webber22

^ You stole Belguy's thunder tonight  ......... The funny comment in the article said Dent was the guy who predicted 10 of the last 2 crashes


----------



## KaeJS

dubmac said:


> anybody read this "crash is coming" article by Harry Dent? Is this guy a crackpot or a wise man?
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...t-for-a-crash-forecaster-says/article2298020/


I did myself a favour and didn't read it on purpose.


----------



## Argonaut

webber22 said:


> The funny comment in the article said Dent was the guy who predicted 10 of the last 2 crashes


10 of the last 2 crashes.. people say lol like it's nothing, but I honestly laughed out loud at that one.


----------



## ddkay

Italian and Spanish bond auctions killed it! Italian 10-yr is now off by 44 bps to 6.61%. Even better normalization at the short end of the curve. LTRO money is slowly going to work, good signs so far. I'm all in.


----------



## ddkay

ECB keeps rates unchanged. Draghi speaking in a moment. Crisis is over, GL if you're short! BAC is up 44% from the December 19th low. 1297.50 on ES, 1302.5 on cash, 2.5 points away from me being foamy at the mouth bullish and I lever up with all I got.

Link to ECB presser: http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_120112.en.html


----------



## ddkay

Santa's elves got laid off, US jobless claims at 399K vs 375K expectations. US retail sales excluding autos fell 0.2% in December. Time to get out lol.


----------



## Belguy

Here's to another exciting investment year!!


----------



## ddkay

I came across this thing called the Wilshire 5000, it's a market cap weighted index like the S&P500 but tracks a lot more stocks. If you overlay it ontop of the S&P500 it's very very close. I like breadth indicators like this because they show money flow into equities. Obviously this is different than the DOW which is very easy to manipulate because the DOW is a price weighted index. You can't inflate market cap without real money behind you, there's no volume tricks... So in my opinion there is a lot of strength behind this rally, but for some strange reason treasuries are still getting an endless bid. The only reason I can come up with to explain that is that the ECB created a liquidity surplus, and EZ banks are still using that surplus to buy treasuries instead of lending more than they have to to each other. As long as there is a liquidity surplus, and ECB keep taking gov debt on their balance sheets, credit risk is lower and equities can rally.


----------



## Belguy

Seek SAFETY!!

"We've been schooled to believe that only equities provide growth. But the traditional safe investments of cash (such as GIC's) and high-quality bonds have actually outperformed many, if not most, equity categories over a number of time periods."

"Andex Charts (a product of Morningstar) tracks three hypothetical portfolios. The most aggressive one (5 per cent cash, 15 per cent bonds, 80 per cent equities) barely outperformed (as of June 2011) the most conservative (20 per cent cash, 60 per cent bonds, 20 per cent equities) returning 8.8 per cent versus 8.7 per cent over the previous 20 years, which isn't much of a premium for a lot more risk."

And one heck of a lot more volatility!!

--Alison Griffiths, Toronto Star


----------



## KaeJS

Can someone explain why the TSX is imploding today?

Dow is up over 100, TSX Down more than 40. 

Why?


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> Can someone explain why the TSX is imploding today?
> 
> Dow is up over 100, TSX Down more than 40.
> 
> Why?


gold sector getting ripped apart


----------



## ddkay

I forgot all about Operation Twist, that's why US treasuries seem to be getting the endless bid. The Op Twist buy programme is supposed to end in June 2012, so around that time the strength in bonds should be less prevalent.

For now volatility is extra low, this is the perfect environment to trade or buy and hold individual issues. You can trade the index in a bear market, but it's best to trade stocks in a bull - buying the dip here never fails and you can peel off a bit on spikes. Bull markets are easy. I am re-adding some long positions in the tech sector this morning, and I haven't been long techs since this time last year.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> I am re-adding some long positions in the tech sector this morning, and I haven't been long techs since this time last year.


Can you name what you're adding?!
The only stock I added lately was EGL.UN and very small portion of TD


----------



## ddkay

I bought IT, VMW, LVLT, AAPL and I'm watching SOX (semiconductor index) which looks like it's going to break out big to the upside soon


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> I bought IT, VMW, LVLT, AAPL and I'm watching SOX (semiconductor index) which looks like it's going to break out big to the upside soon


I see.... I don't have much holdings in tech area...after i sold AAPL last year, I hold only INTC and ZQQ


----------



## gibor365

S&P 500 breaks through the 1,300-threshold .... Are we in the bull market?


----------



## Jungle

Yes. And the IMF is unloading a bazooka filled with money. 

More that 20% gain is definition of bull market.


----------



## Paul75

Jungle said:


> More that 20% gain is definition of bull market.


It is good news for traders.


----------



## Jungle

What a week for equity! Can we hold off until the end of the month?


----------



## gibor365

AH GOOG -8% , MSFT +2.5% on earnings...


----------



## gibor365

VIX first time from end of July closed below 19  
XIV on the other hand in very nice uptrend with resistance about 8.40 (don't know if charts can be applyed to VIX that trades on daily basis).

For about 2 weeks was waiting for slight correction and didn't buy anything big, but markets are going higher and higher..... 

Curious if we gonna reach March 2011 high


----------



## ddkay

S&P futures have closed green 14 out of 15 sessions this year, bonds and volatility are still collapsing. Is anyone else buying stocks on buy stocks Wednesday?


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> S&P futures have closed green 14 out of 15 sessions this year, bonds and volatility are still collapsing. Is anyone else buying stocks on buy stocks Wednesday?


may be  I'm watching some.... I want add COP before spin off (but below $70  ), also looking to buy some dividend champions...

ddkay, just wanted to hear your opinion...is TA applicable to ETFs with same degree like stocks? I hold ZQQ.TO ...wanted to take some profit, but chart looks very nice....,

BTW, even though Dow and S&P were down today, TNA (3x Russell) was up. I read somewhere that this is good sign for bulls if Russell leading major indexes


----------



## ddkay

Yeah the same rules apply everywhere, but it's not good just to rely on TA. I am not really relying on TA now because it has been telling me the market has been overbought for weeks. Any trader can see this, they are concerned about it. So the big question is why hasn't the market gone down?

Well there's only one answer to that question, someone has deeper pockets than they do!










Another 3 year liquidity injection is coming in February, and it will probably be larger than the one in December. This is the stuff bottoms are made of. That said, I am expecting a pullback too, I just don't know when, and I'm not shorting or hedging my longs for now...


----------



## ddkay

This is something to keep an eye on Japan posts first annual trade deficit since 1980 - WSJ


----------



## Jungle

Why are the markets green? Bernanke said interest rates will stay low and possible q3 coming?


----------



## newbie

Jungle said:


> Why are the markets green? Bernanke said interest rates will stay low and possible q3 coming?





ddkay said:


> This is something to keep an eye on Japan posts first annual trade deficit since 1980 - WSJ


gentleman 
sometimes i should actually follow my predictions lol
as i thought in december's end at dec/31 i had a sense that i was entering my short trades wayyyyyyy too early.
the markets are ignoring ALL bearish events around him.
no one can in their conscious mind tell me that Fitch confirmation of european countries today have no effect at all.
sorry , it does .... It means LIQUIDITY INJECTION VIA ECB.
IMHO it is a short covering, technical rally.
i shorted too early and like myself a lot of shorts are covering as we speak .
volume is still ludicrous and todays last 60 seconds of trading are a full proof of how the mkt TECHNICALLY ended lower.
the last 60 seconds of DROPPINGS tells the whole day story.
it just could not end green , Technically speaking.
Shorts have to be resilient IMO , UNLESS they have FOOLPROOF that this rally is not going to FIZZLE.
U can Run but u cant hide.

just read the fine print below

bDi


----------



## ddkay

The NASDAQ 100 is making 10 year highs (excluding the dot com bubble), I'm in all-cash mode again and want to see how the next few weeks play out before I step in the market again.


----------



## newbie

ddkay said:


> The NASDAQ 100 is making 10 year highs (excluding the dot com bubble), I'm in all-cash mode again and want to see how the next few weeks play out before I step in the market again.


interesting chart
glad u noticed.
good thinking also


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> The NASDAQ 100 is making 10 year highs (excluding the dot com bubble), I'm in all-cash mode again and want to see how the next few weeks play out before I step in the market again.


I also noticed it and now in dillema what to with ZQQ.TO BMO Nasdaq 100 Equity Hedged to CAD .. bought last yeat, now in about 5% gain... on one hand want to sell, but on other hand , I'm bad in market timing and NASDAQ still in strong uptrend


----------



## Causalien

ddkay said:


> The NASDAQ 100 is making 10 year highs (excluding the dot com bubble), I'm in all-cash mode again and want to see how the next few weeks play out before I step in the market again.
> 
> I am seeing some signs of y2k like bubble. 10 Million+ dollar funding raises for what is essentially a web page. However, each one of these has been heavily faded as they IPO, so we haven't gone parabolic yet. Facebook on Wednesday should be a big tell on the direction. I'd like to see a big fade on Facebook IPO as well.
> 
> The timing for tech bubble pop is very critical, but ask yourself this question. Is everyone, including your taxi driver buying tech like they are buying gold? Nope.


----------



## jcgd

When the guys at work are buying stuff is when I'm selling. You can't go wrong.


----------



## Belguy

The coming week should be interesting with all kinds of news coming out. If it's mostly negative, watch for the markets to change direction PDQ.

http://www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic


----------



## newbie

Belguy said:


> The coming week should be interesting with all kinds of news coming out. If it's mostly negative, watch for the markets to change direction PDQ.
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic


reallY
we did not have enough yet for the past 2 weeks?
wow thks for sharing....
hold on tiger dont get too excited.
i am sure the american figures coming out will be just fine.......


----------



## kcowan

newbie said:


> i am sure the american figures coming out will be just fine.......


What will trigger the crash? It is like a house of cards.


----------



## ddkay

Where's the PSI deal? They were "one step away".. It was due yesterday...


----------



## newbie

kcowan said:


> What will trigger the crash? It is like a house of cards.


Crash?
what crash?
everything is rosy bro , lets keep adding on weakness


----------



## Belguy

Google 'The Coming Crash' and read over the 353,000,000 hits!!


----------



## webber22

This is the last week of the US earnings season, coupled with the month-end window dressing winding down tomorrow. In the past this has always led to a sell-off - how big is anyone's guess.


----------



## newbie

webber22 said:


> This is the last week of the US earnings season, coupled with the month-end window dressing winding down tomorrow. In the past this has always led to a sell-off - how big is anyone's guess.


It probably will be as big as the large primary desks run out of money.
now dont get me wrong but i still aint sure as to what exactly triggered this rally.
ha, no hold on i called it technical but i am sure that friday's cooked numbers will deffinitely beat 125k jobs on non payfarm roll.
they slashed their estimates to the tank so the numbers can look pretty , and then i ask myself what is 125k jobs for the american economy, and i answer LUDICROUS.
anyway QE3 will save everybody right?
The European QE is already saving them isn't it?


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Google 'The Coming Crash' and read over the 353,000,000 hits!!


'facebook ipo' hits are much more...but it doesn't meaneveryone will be buying FB


----------



## Belguy

Facebook IPO 24,000,000 hits. The Coming Crash 353,000,000 hits and there will be a coming crash!!

Is your money safe?


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Facebook IPO 24,000,000 hits. The Coming Crash 353,000,000 hits and there will be a coming crash!!
> 
> Is your money safe?


just curious where did you find those numbers
as per hot searches in google Facebook IPO is #3
http://www.google.com/trends/hottrends?sa=X

P.S> What is about your money?! Did you do reallocation?


----------



## Eder

Belguy said:


> Google 'The Coming Crash' and read over the 353,000,000 hits!!



I think you missed it in 2008....try to stay up to date!


btw google "the coming bull" 242000000 hits lol


----------



## Eder

Belguy said:


> Facebook IPO 24,000,000 hits. The Coming Crash 353,000,000 hits and there will be a coming crash!!
> 
> Is your money safe?



With numbers like this the coming crash is common knowledge and already priced into the market. Now pass me some Spam & hand me more bullets!


----------



## Miser

Might want to try this book

Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown 

Some decent stuff and enlightening, if not depressing.


----------



## gibor365

I have a feeling that Belguy sold his ETFs and bought reversed ones


----------



## Eder

Miser said:


> Might want to try this book
> 
> Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown
> 
> Some decent stuff and enlightening, if not depressing.


Again if this guy has any conviction he would spend time shorting rather than write drivel to pay his trailer pad rent...no respect sorry...he has predicted 5 of the last 1 crashes. Maybe that's why the book has been marked down 35% already lol.


----------



## Miser

Eder said:


> Again if this guy has any conviction he would spend time shorting rather than write drivel to pay his trailer pad rent...no respect sorry...he has predicted 5 of the last 1 crashes. Maybe that's why the book has been marked down 35% already lol.


lol....I take it you didn't buy any of it?
I like the debt part a lot.


----------



## newbie

Miser said:


> Might want to try this book
> 
> Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown
> 
> Some decent stuff and enlightening, if not depressing.


why worry?
it was just rumoured that Greece has reached a deal so tomorrow mkts will rally once again.
like i said everything is Rosy.
in the morning everything is a mess now everything is resolved


----------



## Belguy

The problem with investing in stocks over the past few years is that we seem to be constantly in a volatile mode where a potential crash seems to be always a possibility. That doesn't affect young investors so much as they are always faced with a potential buying opportunity but it does make it difficult for us older geeks to know where to stash our hard-earned life savings. It's like you're always on the edge of your seat waiting for a world wide deleveraging crisis to decimate your retirement fund.

I hope that I am wrong and nothing catastrophic will happen. However, what if my worst fears are realized and we start to experience something akin to the Great Depression! It happened once and it could happen again because we are poor learners from the lessons of history.

In the meantime, I have sold nothing. If I end up in deep do-do, I won't be alone in the soup line. The one thing that I am in the process of doing is changing my asset allocation from 60/40 equities to bonds to 50/50 which I will complete in February.

I plan to allocate that 10 per cent to the Beutel Goodman Income Fund D.

http://www.beutel-can.com/MutualFunds/MFPerfReports/AnnualMRFPIncome.pdf


----------



## ddkay

I would reallocate now if I were you.. we just had a month and a half stock market rally without a single pullback until this week


----------



## Belguy

I would be curious to know what some of the rest of you retired, or close to retirement, investors have done of late, if anything, concerning your asset allocation. What is your current allocation of cash, fixed income, and equities? If you work with a financial advisor, what are they suggesting that you do in light of the goings on in Europe?


----------



## kcowan

I have increased my allocation to cash. I am waiting for the bargain basement prices and then will load up on blue chip dividend-paying stocks. What will be the trigger? I honestly do not know. How about Portugal bond rates


> reaching an historical high of 15.22 percent in January of 2012


Source


----------



## fatcat

Belguy said:


> The problem with investing in stocks over the past few years is that we seem to be constantly in a volatile mode where a potential crash seems to be always a possibility. That doesn't affect young investors so much as they are always faced with a potential buying opportunity but it does make it difficult for us older geeks to know where to stash our hard-earned life savings. It's like you're always on the edge of your seat waiting for a world wide deleveraging crisis to decimate your retirement fund.
> 
> I hope that I am wrong and nothing catastrophic will happen. However, what if my worst fears are realized and we start to experience something akin to the Great Depression! It happened once and it could happen again because we are poor learners from the lessons of history.
> 
> In the meantime, I have sold nothing. If I end up in deep do-do, I won't be alone in the soup line. The one thing that I am in the process of doing is changing my asset allocation from 60/40 equities to bonds to 50/50 which I will complete in February.
> 
> I plan to allocate that 10 per cent to the Beutel Goodman Income Fund D.
> 
> http://www.beutel-can.com/MutualFunds/MFPerfReports/AnnualMRFPIncome.pdf


why choose this fund over phn110 ? ... i don't get it .... it's more expensive ... it does have better quality products that's true ... but it has underperformed phn for the last year ... i was under the impression you were happy with phn110 ... why the switch ?


----------



## larry81

dont forget folks, the sky is (still) failing !


----------



## leoc2

Belguy said:


> I would be curious to know what some of the rest of you retired, or close to retirement, investors have done of late, ... :


I will have 50/50 AA. For equity I will have 25% VCE, 12.5% VTI, and 12.5% VXUS. For FI I will have 25% gic/vsb/cash, 15% vab, and 10% xrb. It will take me 7 more months to shuffle investments into place as they mature from other accounts/investments. Began the slow shuffle last august and at this point in time the shuffle has me at 11/89 AA with lots of powder. I am 5 years from retirement with DB plan to boot.


----------



## ddkay

That's right - it's not a bubble, it's a balloon.


----------



## gibor365

leoc2 said:


> I will have 50/50 AA. For equity I will have 25% VCE, 12.5% VTI, and 12.5% VXUS. For FI I will have 25% gic/vsb/cash, 15% vab, and 10% xrb. It will take me 7 more months to shuffle investments into place as they mature from other accounts/investments. Began the slow shuffle last august and at this point in time the shuffle has me at 11/89 AA with lots of powder. I am 5 years from retirement with DB plan to boot.


In Belguy situation I'd put 50% in fixed income (mix of GIC/HISA/bonds) and 50% in US dividend champions and Canadian dividend aristocrats with yield >3.5% . Thus he will have constant dividend stream.


----------



## Eder

Belguy said:


> I would be curious to know what some of the rest of you retired, or close to retirement, investors have done of late, if anything, concerning your asset allocation. What is your current allocation of cash, fixed income, and equities?


I'm 55 and retired 2 years...no pension. I am still adding Canadian stocks and almost rid of my ETF's. I am 30% GIC, 10% long corporate bonds, the rest the usual stuff....banks,telecom,Can REIT.

I recently added more BCE,Finning,ECA,more BNS,Canadian Western Bank,Highliner Foods to provide me income.

I've been doing my own investing since about 1992...I don't scare easily.


----------



## leoc2

gibor said:


> In Belguy situation I'd put 50% in fixed income (mix of GIC/HISA/bonds) and 50% in US dividend champions and Canadian dividend aristocrats with yield >3.5% . Thus he will have constant dividend stream.


A total market index fund may have less dividend but has more capital appreciation. A withdrawal may require you to sell stock to make up for the lower dividend and generate capital gains. A mix of capital gains and lower dividends may have tax advantages (or qualifier to gov programs) over a pure dividend fund. The other benefit is the total market index is more diversified than a dividend fund. May be more stable in the long run.


----------



## marina628

I am leaving everything the same but each month of new investment we are now spliting it 50/50 between USD/CAD holdings,50% is in Cash and 50% equities.


----------



## ddkay

I just noticed CMF has hit a fresh record high of "most users ever online". Let's see if this CMF site activity indicator has any use for the market, it seems to have captured the last top fairly accurately. I believe the previous record was 523 users on 04-29-2011 at 12:12 AM.


----------



## Belguy

Haven't we recently gone through an entire decade where the S&P 500 experienced no net gain? With the debt situation in the U.S. being what it is, is there any reason to believe that the next decade will produce better results for that index?

Should prudent investors be tilting their equity asset allocation out of the developed countries and more towards the emerging markets where most of the growth will be for the next several years?

This not withstanding the fact that emerging market equities can be more volatile.


----------



## gibor365

leoc2 said:


> A total market index fund may have less dividend but has more capital appreciation. A withdrawal may require you to sell stock to make up for the lower dividend and generate capital gains. A mix of capital gains and lower dividends may have tax advantages (or qualifier to gov programs) over a pure dividend fund. The other benefit is the total market index is more diversified than a dividend fund. May be more stable in the long run.


Just read article below... the guy invested 100K into 10 dividend champions 6 years ago. On Dec 31, 2011 market value of his portfolio was 174K. And whar return you'd have from index investing?!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/321...do-it-yourselfers-january-transaction-updates


----------



## Belguy

When you hear stories of big gains, do you often feel like you have been missing out?

Just say to yourself "so what?".

If you're just able to earn market returns over your investing lifestyle, you're likely to outperform about 90% of professional money managers--let alone your brother-in-law or the guy at your kid's hockey game. But you will never be number one in any given year, or even any period of several years. You can always find a strategy that would have worked better in the recent past (gold, anyone?) and that can make we humble Couch Potatoes feel like chumps.

It may help to know that many of indexing's staunchest advocates are finance professors with Nobel Prizes on their mantels. Academics may not use the term Couch Potato--they're more likely to talk about "mean variance optimization" and "the efficient frontier" which sounds smarter--but they overwhelmingly favour passive investing. That's because they focus on the data, not the anecdotes about investors who beat the odds. When you adopt the strategy, count yourself among the smart money.

And so, when you read about someone who outperformed you over a six year period, just say to yourself, "So What".

By the way, if an index investor had invested $100,000 and it grew by 7 per cent a year, he or she would have some $150,000 after six years. I would harbour a guess that after a dozen or so years, and certainly after a lifetime of investing, he or she would be ahead of the stock picker by a country mile.

The next time that someone tells you about some fantastic short, or relatively short term, returns, just reply "so what?!!".

Source: Dan Bortolotti, MoneySense Magazine, February/March 2012


----------



## leoc2

gibor said:


> Just read article below... the guy invested 100K into 10 dividend champions 6 years ago. On Dec 31, 2011 market value of his portfolio was 174K. And whar return you'd have from index investing?!
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/321...do-it-yourselfers-january-transaction-updates



Yale’s David Swensen, who pioneered an investing style that helped endowments beat markets by using alternative assets such as private equity and real estate, said investors who don’t have access to top managers are best off using index products.

Unless an investor has access to “incredibly high- qualified professionals,” they “should be 100 percent passive -- that includes almost all individual investors and most institutional investors,” he said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ex-funds-best-plan-for-most-investors-2-.html



Should We Invest in Dividend Stocks for the Long Term?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/231778-should-we-invest-in-dividend-stocks-for-the-long-term


----------



## newbie

ddkay said:


> I just noticed CMF has hit a fresh record high of "most users ever online". Let's see if this CMF site activity indicator has any use for the market, it seems to have captured the last top fairly accurately. I believe the previous record was 523 users on 04-29-2011 at 12:12 AM.


i said between 1320- 1340 i believe in one of my posts if i am not wrong.
u need a 'PERFECT' world now to try and reach the aug /11 highs.
it took out the october lows and usually the mkt retraces from the higher high.
i expect at least a 20% correction from the high, which brings it back around 1076.
i am pretty sure this is the first top of the year and this chart is about to roll.
anyway, still bearish here.
i wont enter into details into why , but i also posted why.
but anyway , here is a hint.... lol... usually the mkt lags 3 months from its low (not the spx)..... that is the hint.
retest of 1076 will happen one more time
GL
nice chart

damn glad u can post the charts i just cant friggin do it lol


----------



## avrex

ddkay said:


> Let's see if this CMF site activity indicator has any use for the market, it seems to have captured the last top fairly accurately.


Awesome chart. lol


----------



## newbie

avrex said:


> Awesome chart. lol


what is wrong with his chart?
why the sarcasm?


----------



## ddkay

I don't think he was being sarcastic, but we won't know if it's awesome until another few weeks at least.


----------



## newbie

ddkay said:


> I don't think he was being sarcastic, but we won't know if it's awesome until another few weeks at least.


well 
if he was not then its all good.
deffinitely, nothing goes up or down in a straight line.
as i wrote above the mkt...... lags........


----------



## gibor365

leoc2 said:


> Yale’s David Swensen, who pioneered an investing style that helped endowments beat markets by using alternative assets such as private equity and real estate, said



He said and "so what?"  Did he become W.Buffet?!
Michael O'Higgins said to invest in "Dogs of the Dow" and this is strategy that also beats index.

For me index investing more difficult even psychologically... so if one of my index ETF lost 50% and other lost 10%, I have to reallocate and buy more ETF that lost 50% ...

So far I have almost equal allocation of solid dividend payers and index ETFs... I don't know for lifetime, but for last couple of years my dividend portion is doing much better.


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> When you hear stories of big gains, do you often feel like you have been missing out?
> 
> Just say to yourself "so what?".
> 
> If you're just able to earn market returns over your investing lifestyle, you're likely to outperform about 90% of professional money managers--let alone your brother-in-law or the guy at your kid's hockey game. But you will never be number one in any given year, or even any period of several years. You can always find a strategy that would have worked better in the recent past (gold, anyone?) and that can make we humble Couch Potatoes feel like chumps.
> 
> It may help to know that many of indexing's staunchest advocates are finance professors with Nobel Prizes on their mantels. Academics may not use the term Couch Potato--they're more likely to talk about "mean variance optimization" and "the efficient frontier" which sounds smarter--but they overwhelmingly favour passive investing. That's because they focus on the data, not the anecdotes about investors who beat the odds. When you adopt the strategy, count yourself among the smart money.
> 
> And so, when you read about someone who outperformed you over a six year period, just say to yourself, "So What".
> 
> By the way, if an index investor had invested $100,000 and it grew by 7 per cent a year, he or she would have some $150,000 after six years. I would harbour a guess that after a dozen or so years, and certainly after a lifetime of investing, he or she would be ahead of the stock picker by a country mile.
> 
> The next time that someone tells you about some fantastic short, or relatively short term, returns, just reply "so what?!!".
> 
> Source: Dan Bortolotti, MoneySense Magazine, February/March 2012


I've heard this anecdote about 90% many times.... I don't know who came up with this number and how it was calculated....
...for somebody 6 years it's a relatively short term, for somebody this is "the term".... just if I'd get 70% return in 6 years, probably I 'd just retire and live on income from the dividends...
I don't want to argue with Dan... but when he gave 10 years of hypothetical return for passive index portfolio (2001-2010), I can tel that any GIC or some TD Monthly income MF would beat index investing


----------



## avrex

newbie said:


> what is wrong with his chart?
> why the sarcasm?


I wasn't being sarcastic. 
I thought ddkay's idea to correlate the market to the number of CMF users was cool, and yes, humourous, because I would never have thought about that correlation. 
Nice, fun stuff, ddkay.


----------



## newbie

avrex said:


> I wasn't being sarcastic.
> I thought ddkay's idea to correlate the market to the number of CMF users was cool, and yes, humourous, because I would never have thought about that correlation.
> Nice, fun stuff, ddkay.


i sent my apologies to u avrex.
it sounded weird..... just like me


----------



## avrex

no problem.


----------



## sags

Do any of the TA folks follow the Baltic Dry Index?

Apparently, it is entering the "dangerous zone" where bad things are about to commence.

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/01/30/get-out-of-stocks-tza-gld-faz-spxu-sds-vxx-rwm/


----------



## sags

According to the Bloomberg reporter, Joseph Granville is a long time TA analyst who has correctly predicted many market cycles over his many years in the markets. 

He predicts the Dow has reached a market top and will fall 1000 points per quarter for a total loss of 4000 points in 2012. That would be a 30% loss.

His thesis is volume precedes price.....falling volumes = falling prices.

The charts Bloomberg provided during the interview show the lowest volume in many years and trending downwards.

Quite a market call.......

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/

From watching lately, it seems to me that a line is being drawn between the predictions of an imminent stock crash and a more optimistic view, wtih people who have been in the markets for a long period of time taking a bearish view, while the younger folks are projecting a more bullish sentiment.

Old and fearful...............or young and foolish?


----------



## Uranium101

sags said:


> According to the Bloomberg reporter, Joseph Granville is a long time TA analyst who has correctly predicted many market cycles over his many years in the markets.
> 
> He predicts the Dow has reached a market top and will fall 1000 points per quarter for a total loss of 4000 points in 2012. That would be a 30% loss.
> 
> His thesis is volume precedes price.....falling volumes = falling prices.
> 
> The charts Bloomberg provided during the interview show the lowest volume in many years and trending downwards.
> 
> Quite a market call.......
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/
> 
> From watching lately, it seems to me that a line is being drawn between the predictions of an imminent stock crash and a more optimistic view, wtih people who have been in the markets for a long period of time taking a bearish view, while the younger folks are projecting a more bullish sentiment.
> 
> Old and fearful...............or young and foolish?


How many official predictions did he make in total?
And how many did he got right?
We don't want another Jim Cramer lol. He recommended thousands of stocks in his life, and most of them failed. But he seems to be doing fine because he will emphasize on those stocks that did well.


----------



## larry81

sags said:


> According to the Bloomberg reporter, Joseph Granville is a long time TA analyst who has correctly predicted many market cycles over his many years in the markets.
> 
> He predicts the Dow has reached a market top and will fall 1000 points per quarter for a total loss of 4000 points in 2012. That would be a 30% loss.
> 
> His thesis is volume precedes price.....falling volumes = falling prices.


low volume is mostly due to etf gaining popularity....


----------



## kcowan

gibor said:


> Just read article below... the guy invested 100K into 10 dividend champions 6 years ago. On Dec 31, 2011 market value of his portfolio was 174K. And whar return you'd have from index investing?!
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/321...do-it-yourselfers-january-transaction-updates


This is an alternaive form of passive investing. It is not a traders portfolio. Because it is US dividends, it is only suitable for a USD RRSP owing to adverse tax implications for Canadians. USD because otherwise you get hit with FX vigorish on every dividend.


----------



## kcowan

Uranium101 said:


> How many official predictions did he make in total?
> And how many did he got right?
> We don't want another Jim Cramer lol. He recommended thousands of stocks in his life, and most of them failed. But he seems to be doing fine because he will emphasize on those stocks that did well.


A study done 3 years ago tracked Cramers picks and 47% of them were ahead after 3 years. So "most" is true but only 53%. And failed means failed to come out ahead.


----------



## Uranium101

kcowan said:


> A study done 3 years ago tracked Cramers picks and 47% of them were ahead after 3 years. So "most" is true but only 53%. And failed means failed to come out ahead.


Lol, anything above 50% is significant. Therefore, the word "most" is very suitable.
What do you guys think?
47% a head by how much, ahead of index?


----------



## gibor365

kcowan said:


> This is an alternaive form of passive investing. It is not a traders portfolio. Because it is US dividends, it is only suitable for a USD RRSP owing to adverse tax implications for Canadians. USD because otherwise you get hit with FX vigorish on every dividend.


Not really! even opposite! As part of coach potato portfolio majority holding VTI, VEA, VWO, VXUS etc, they have to do reallocation every year to keep % target. Every buy/sell (and it's done every year) involve much-much higher FX fees that 1 time buy and dividends (btw, those ETFs also will have dividends and FX on conversion).
One more thing... I like DRIPing dividends, all solid blue-chips will allow you to DRIP, and it's not always the case with ETFs. For example on LIRA I hold VEA , I got about $200 in dividends, my brokerage doesnèt allow DRIP on VEA, and what should I do with those AMOUNTS?! I cannot DRIP, cannot contribute and it doesn't make semse to buy anything ...


----------



## Causalien

Golde cross day 2.


----------



## Belguy

What a start to the year--the best since 1994!! Aren't you glad that you stayed fully invested?!!

http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1377-akWCMY3dLYEg-76Q55M6BTH8TS7SS8UHUCBPA60

The lessons that I take away from this are to never listen to all of the naysayers out there and to buy during periods of maximum pessimism. The market timers are waiting out there for stocks to rebound to their highs and then they will pounce at just the time that they start falling back again.

It's human nature to worry about your finances but you can't time the markets and so you may as well stay fully invested but keep aside whatever money you may need within five years in safe keeping to lesson the worry factor.


----------



## ddkay

I should have listened to CNBC about that golden cross lol, the market just came back to where I sold last Thursday. I guess the only logical thing to do is go long again and buy cheap insurance against it. I said I would wait a few weeks though. I can be patient, unless we break out into a parabolic channel like it's 1999, then I will chase.


----------



## jcgd

Belguy said:


> What a start to the year--the best since 1994!! Aren't you glad that you stayed fully invested?!!
> 
> http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1377-akWCMY3dLYEg-76Q55M6BTH8TS7SS8UHUCBPA60
> 
> The lessons that I take away from this are to never listen to all of the naysayers out there and to buy during periods of maximum pessimism. The market timers are waiting out there for stocks to rebound to their highs and then they will pounce at just the time that they start falling back again.
> 
> It's human nature to worry about your finances but you can't time the markets and so you may as well stay fully invested but keep aside whatever money you may need within five years in safe keeping to lesson the worry factor.


Why say this after all your doom and gloom posts? You were the naysayers of the board, and while I'm sure you were simply being devil's advocate, why bother? If these are your true feelings, what's up with trying to convince anyone who would listen that the end is neigh? 

On the other hand, you've provided great buy signals so far.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy said:


> What a start to the year--the best since 1994!! Aren't you glad that you stayed fully invested?!!


The question, dear Belguy, is what *you* are going to do. Are you finally going to take some profits and move your portfolio to the conservative side? Or are you going to start to fret once again if markets start to reverse direction? IMO, it ain't worth fretting over every little move in the markets.


----------



## Four Pillars

jcgd said:


> Why say this after all your doom and gloom posts?


Because that's what trolls do.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. The lessons that I take away from this are to buy during periods of maximum pessimism.
> 
> 2. The market timers are waiting out there for stocks to rebound....


1. How many years have you been investing? It's a lesson you should have learned long, long ago; even your PM was telling you to do exactly that and okay, maybe many were afraid in March/09, but that was almost 3 years ago, what have you done since?

2. They are not waiting/hiding under the bed doing nothing; I can assure you that they have been doing a lot more than mere recovering!


----------



## Causalien

ddkay said:


> I should have listened to CNBC about that golden cross lol, the market just came back to where I sold last Thursday. I guess the only logical thing to do is go long again and buy cheap insurance against it. I said I would wait a few weeks though. I can be patient, unless we break out into a parabolic channel like it's 1999, then I will chase.


Nah, don't listen to cnbc. The golden cross is a macro TA event, trust in yourself. Still, it's only day 2. Day 3 need to be confirmed as well. Also, there are times that golden crosses fail, but I find that they usually fail after about a 10% rise. 

Golden cross/Death cross > any other indicator.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> What a start to the year--the best since 1994!! Aren't you glad that you stayed fully invested?!!
> 
> http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1377-akWCMY3dLYEg-76Q55M6BTH8TS7SS8UHUCBPA60
> 
> The lessons that I take away from this are to never listen to all of the naysayers out there and to buy during periods of maximum pessimism. The market timers are waiting out there for stocks to rebound to their highs and then they will pounce at just the time that they start falling back again.
> 
> It's human nature to worry about your finances but you can't time the markets and so you may as well stay fully invested but keep aside whatever money you may need within five years in safe keeping to lesson the worry factor.


look who is talking !!! you were on the verge of panic attack on a 20%market drop... with a 60/40 portfolio !


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> What a start to the year--the best since 1994!! *Aren't you glad that you stayed fully invested?!!*


I didn't.

That's exactly why I pulled off a 4% return last year and an 8% return this year (so far).


----------



## Belguy

Maybe a little off topic but I was just recalling that the overwhelming proportion of posts on this forum at about this time last year were to keep your bond durations short..

And so, what happened? Last year, the best returns by far were from LONG bonds.

And so, as you listen to the predictions for this year, take them will a grain of salt--except mine, of course!! The 'experts' aren't always right--far from it!!

By the way, I'm not certain what a troll is but I am almost certain that I am not one!


----------



## Causalien

My portfolio says the best asset class were short options.


----------



## Argonaut

Belguy is happy? Sell everything.. including your blender.


----------



## kcowan

Argonaut said:


> Belguy is happy? Sell everything.. including your blender.


Much of the activity in January is from traders either doing asset allocation, or repurchasing after unloading their losers in December. Don't be fooled into thinking it is a trend! Be cautious. Get back under the bed while you still can!


----------



## Belguy

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!! Why can't people just be positive for a change??


----------



## Eder

kcowan said:


> A study done 3 years ago tracked Cramers picks and 47% of them were ahead after 3 years. So "most" is true but only 53%. And failed means failed to come out ahead.


Cramers trading style was to buy on the way down, so the study was irrelevant. His average cost would often be much lower than when he entered his position.


----------



## Jungle

Whoa, us payrolls smoke estimates, stock futures UP! Stats can says CDN unemployment went up


----------



## Jon_Snow

I bet the Republicans are shaking in their boots that the U.S. might actually be bouncing back... this doesn't really help their "Blame Obama" campaign. If the U.S. continues to recover up to the November election, Obama will get a second term: the right wing nut job quoitent in the states will have a hissy fit. Love it.


----------



## kcowan

Eder said:


> Cramers trading style was to buy on the way down, so the study was irrelevant. His average cost would often be much lower than when he entered his position.


The study was to show how an investor following Cramer's tips would lose money.


----------



## madeincanada

Quite an amazing rally. Anyone want to take a guess if a pull back is forming.


----------



## Eder

kcowan said:


> The study was to show how an investor following Cramer's tips would lose money.



Sorry I wasn't trying to be a smartass. It's just that studies like that are flawed...no one that buys equities would ever buy only when told,never average down or up or ever sell.

I doubt there ever was a stockpicker that would be above water with that criteria.


----------



## ddkay

The economy is roaring, I think it's time to abandon the possibility of a short opportunity. Obama is getting re-elected, you can hold banks through summer.


----------



## Beaver101

Why just banks if the "economy" is indeed roaring?


----------



## ddkay

Banks are still beaten up, BAC could have another 100% upside.


----------



## blin10

ddkay said:


> The economy is roaring, I think it's time to abandon the possibility of a short opportunity. Obama is getting re-elected, you can hold banks through summer.


nothing is roaring... spx can fall down 300 points and everyone will be screaming about Europe again... they don't talk about Europe at all now, like it doesn't exist, but they did few months back, what has changed? it got even worse now...... as it keeps going higher i'm slowly selling most of my porfolio


----------



## ddkay

Europe is in the news, they keep telling us a PSI debt swap deal is always a "few hours away". The small caps index is backtesting, now the question is does it stall here or rip higher. I'm personally undecided, but if we continue this trend (parabolic rise like its 1999) I will be chasing. Cocaine makes you do silly things very fast.


----------



## blin10

it did break a nice like coming down from late '07 and mid '11 that's pretty bullish though...


----------



## ddkay

http://www.ifre.com/portugal-pressed-to-restructure/20046599.article

Portugal has been discreetly sounding out advisers on options to restructure its debt. Although the government has yet to formally appoint any firm, IFR has learnt that ministers have been watching developments in Greece closely with a view to replicating elements of any final agreement.

Some of those consulted are understood to have advised Portugal to follow a similar path to Greece’s private sector involvement (PSI) plan, to persuade private sector bondholders to take a voluntary haircut on their bonds, if the latter proves successful over the next six weeks.

*“If there is success with PSI in Greece, then it could open the eyes of some governments,” said one sovereign debt adviser involved in such preliminary discussions. “It would show that after all debt reduction is possible and not the end of the world. That could create an interesting precedent.”
*
Advocates of a Portuguese debt restructuring urge that a decision be taken swiftly. Such procrastination has made the Greek experience far more complicated than it needed to be.

“The lesson from Greece is that getting money from the official sector and letting the financial sector escape, with at least €40bn in bond repayments [made by the official sector to investors], means you have fewer restructuring options,” said Mitu Gulati, a professor at Duke University specialising in sovereign restructuring.

Concerns have mounted that Portugal might have to revise its €78bn bailout from the EU and IMF because it would be unable to return to the market after the three-year programme finishes in mid-2014. An 11-year €6bn bond maturing that June is currently yielding about 20%.

Other countries in peripheral Europe have seen their bond yields come down since the introduction of the ECB’s three-year liquidity scheme in December. But Portugal’s’s have remained at elevated levels, even after Germany’s Chancellor Merkel said PSI only applied to Greece.

Over the next two years, Portugal has two other longer-term bond issues maturing with a combined par value of €18.9bn. However, the adviser said that, as with Greece, the country also had a revolving series of shorter-term paper to keep rolling over.

For example, over the rest of this year €16.4bn of such paper, with maturities of less than three years, comes due.

“It’s a misconception that Portugal is out of the market until 2013. It has to be in the market regularly through issuing short term and it’s hurting,” said the adviser.

Successful auction

The situation eased slightly last week with a €1.5bn auction of three and six-month paper, each yielding less than 5%. However, that still represents a significant spread over Italy, which can currently get two-year money at 3.2%.

Portugal has also made progress with its privatisation programme, unlike Greece. At the end of December it agreed to sell a 21% stake in Energias de Portugal to China Three Gorges for €2.7bn, putting German energy utility E.ON’s nose out of joint.

“The deal shows that Portugal can resist pressure from the EU and Germany,” said one Lisbon-based lawyer.

And last week Portugal also sold a 40% stake in its power grid company REN to China State Grid and Oman Oil for €592m.

In a speech in London last week finance minister Vitor Gaspar said that three transport related deals were due to be agreed in the first half of this year. He did not respond to requests for comment on talks he may have had with advisers. Lazard is believed to be speaking to the government.


----------



## dogcom

I have a feeling we drop a bit and then power forward to conclude the rally for this winter/spring. Europe will come back to the front burner again as overbought conditions make it easy for the market to drop. At this time it is all just one big silly game until all the debt woes and such are resolved.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Dogcom, I think that scenario you describe sounds about right... I'm looking for an excuse to lighten up on my portfolio very soon. Not complaining at all about these early 2012 gains, but reality HAS to kick in at some point.


----------



## ddkay

NASDAQ Composite closes at its highest level since December 2000. Multiple sighs of relief on CNBC, isn't it great we don't have to worry anymore? Now we can relax.


----------



## gibor365

VIX chart looks so nice .... interesting if it can reach above $10 









http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=XIV&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t74628620153&r=7625


----------



## Causalien

ddkay said:


> Banks are still beaten up, BAC could have another 100% upside.


BAC's been great. Long live Bruce Berkowitz


----------



## ddkay

Your link didn't work gibor, stockcharts doesn't allow hotlinking, you have to save the image and use a host like imgur.com


----------



## Belguy

We're in the money!! Happy days are here again!!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...h-indexes-to-multi-year-highs/article2326014/

I told you not to worry and to stay fully invested!! It's a good thing that I am not the type to say "I told you so"!!


----------



## zylon

*I'm so happy you have a fresh supply of meds!*

~~ EOM ~~


----------



## Belguy

A timely reminder:

The economy and the stock market are not the same thing.


----------



## ddkay

They are actually


----------



## ddkay

On December 19th ZH tweeted "Bank of 4merica", I will always remember that date. There is a lot of useful and educational info on ZH site but you have to take any opinions on price with a grain of salt.

I am finding a lot of people who are bearish and have been bearish for a long time now, are looking for more reasons to be bearish. Instead of adapting to the new flush-with-liquidity market conditions, and maybe admit they are wrong, they are painting into a corner. What happens good news becomes *really* good news? Everyone was begging for the market to form a trend, up or down, now we got one and almost half the people I follow are fighting against it.

The only thing keeping me just dumping everything in and leveraging up right now is a Greece default + CDS trigger within the next 40 days. $14 billion of GGB mature on March 20. However now I'm reading systemic risk/contagion is not even a possibility because the value of all CDS written according to DTCC is very small at $3.34 billion and has been around this level for a long time. All I am thinking is WTF, why were everyone kicking up a fuss about it then? What was the August crash even about? Something blew up and we were never told about it. Maybe the lesson here is to always fade the media. You live and you learn.

Here are two well written articles on the topic of CDS being a non-issue:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-greek-cds-missing-forest-trees
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/greece-cds-idUSL6E8CI2M520120118



> I suspect that CDS at this stage is actually transferring risk out of the banking system and into other areas. I believe banks are now net short Greek credit via CDS. Banks will benefit from triggering CDS as they will monetize those gains against losses in their bond portfolios. The losers from a credit event would be insurance companies and hedge funds as I believe both of those areas are now net sellers of Greek CDS. At one time, clearly, hedge funds were net short Greek CDS, but with 5 year CDS trading at 25 points up front and 500 running, a lot have taken profits, and some have made the bet that the EU governments would do something stupid, like avoiding a Credit Event.


Now if we do get a CDS trigger that would be great, the Greeks can move onto stage 2, exit the EMU and return to drachma and the rest of us move on. Sounds simple. I just don't understand why the PSI deal is taking so long.


----------



## Belguy

The stock market is not the economy (continued)--

http://stocks.about.com/od/marketnews/a/092810The-Stock-Market-Is-Not-The-Economy.htm


----------



## fatcat

ddkay said:


> On December 19th ZH tweeted "Bank of 4merica", I will always remember that date. There is a lot of useful and educational info on ZH site but you have to take any opinions on price with a grain of salt.
> 
> I am finding a lot of people who are bearish and have been bearish for a long time now, are looking for more reasons to be bearish. Instead of adapting to the new flush-with-liquidity market conditions, and maybe admit they are wrong, they are painting into a corner. What happens good news becomes *really* good news? Everyone was begging for the market to form a trend, up or down, now we got one and almost half the people I follow are fighting against it.
> 
> The only thing keeping me just dumping everything in and leveraging up right now is a Greece default + CDS trigger within the next 40 days. $14 billion of GGB mature on March 20. However now I'm reading systemic risk/contagion is not even a possibility because the value of all CDS written according to DTCC is very small at $3.34 billion and has been around this level for a long time. All I am thinking is WTF, why were everyone kicking up a fuss about it then? What was the August crash even about? Something blew up and we were never told about it. Maybe the lesson here is to always fade the media. You live and you learn.
> 
> Here are two well written articles on the topic of CDS being a non-issue:
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-greek-cds-missing-forest-trees
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/greece-cds-idUSL6E8CI2M520120118
> 
> 
> 
> Now if we do get a CDS trigger that would be great, the Greeks can move onto stage 2, exit the EMU and return to drachma and the rest of us move on. Sounds simple. I just don't understand why the PSI deal is taking so long.


 excellent post dd ... i love zerohedge as much as the next guy but too much reading of zh is like spending all your time on gold-bug sites ... you get a warped point of view (to the downside) ... bloomberg says that europe amounts to only about 7% of usa gdp, not great news but certainly nothing that will take the usa with it ... and there are undeniable green shoots all over the usa economy ... i listen to bloomberg a lot and i remember one of their guys saying late last year that the bulk of the stimulus has still not fully worked it's way into the economy ... i am definitely cautiously optimistic


----------



## gibor365

looking at the charts.... Dow at 52 weeks high, NASDAQ multi year high, S&P is very close to 52 weeks high, but TSX is about 12% lower that 52 weeks high. Does it mean that TSX during rest of 2012 has a good chance to catch up?

_On the Nasdaq 100 Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average EOD chart, we have a major Bull signal! This is the first major Bull Market signal since April of 2009 and we all know what happened then. The market had its best 10 month strong uptrend ever_


----------



## larry81

Consider the last 3-4 months, how many here recognize their feelings in the following chart:










It was the end of the world for some but an incredible opportunity for investors who knew better than listen to forecasters and read investment pornography. 

We now entering the "Relief/Optimism" stage and history will simply repeat itself.

Remember folks, for DIY investors, emotion management is probably the most difficult part. Selecting a proper AA and picking ETF/MF is easy, your worst enemy is in the mirror.

Buy when there's blood in the streets (or you can also panic and share your end-of-the-world feelings on internet forums)


----------



## Ihatetaxes

gibor said:


> looking at the charts.... Dow at 52 weeks high, NASDAQ multi year high, S&P is very close to 52 weeks high, but TSX is about 12% lower that 52 weeks high. Does it mean that TSX during rest of 2012 has a good chance to catch up?
> 
> _On the Nasdaq 100 Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average EOD chart, we have a major Bull signal! This is the first major Bull Market signal since April of 2009 and we all know what happened then. The market had its best 10 month strong uptrend ever_


I sure hope so!!!


----------



## Belguy

Buy, hold, worry, and prosper.

I think that one of the tricks here is to not put money in the stock market that you are going to need in the next five years or so. Then, you don't need to concern yourself with the short-term market gyrations.

That said, remember that we have just gone through a full decade when the S&P effectively was flat and gained nothing!!


----------



## sags

The US jobs number comes out............

And there is euphoria is the CNBC newsrooms. Analysts are giddy with joy.

Someone comes on and points out that although 230,000 jobs were created, there were 1.2 Million people who left the workforce........for a net loss of 1 Million jobs. Apparently, these 1 milion people are just vaporized and don't require employment anymore.

Get out of here, say the crowd...........we don't want to hear that nonsense....

The US jobs number is super-fantabulous, they say.

Even CNN is all over it, squeezing it in every 5 minutes as a message to Republicans that Obama is back in the game.

Perhaps we are further along the chart.......in the "I will find a way to make any numbers look positive" denial phase.


----------



## Uranium101

sags said:


> The US jobs number comes out............
> 
> And there is euphoria is the CNBC newsrooms. Analysts are giddy with joy.
> 
> Someone comes on and points out that although 230,000 jobs were created, there were 1.2 Million people who left the workforce........for a net loss of 1 Million jobs. Apparently, these 1 milion people are just vaporized and don't require employment anymore.
> 
> Get out of here, say the crowd...........we don't want to hear that nonsense....
> 
> The US jobs number is super-fantabulous, they say.
> 
> Even CNN is all over it, squeezing it in every 5 minutes as a message to Republicans that Obama is back in the game.
> 
> Perhaps we are further along the chart.......in the "I will find a way to make any numbers look positive" denial phase.


job creation and the number of people looking for jobs are 2 separate numbers.
As long as there are net job gains, the economy will get better.
Unemployment rate is a different thing.


----------



## kcowan

larry81 said:


> Remember folks, for DIY investors, emotion management is probably the most difficult part. Selecting a proper AA and picking ETF/MF is easy, your worst enemy is in the mirror.
> 
> Buy when there's blood in the streets (or you can also panic and share your end-of-the-world feelings on internet forums)


It is time to be building that cash cushion so that we have money to invest next time the blood is flowing!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Yes. I will always carry a large cash component for just such "opportunities"...


----------



## larry81

Jon_Snow said:


> Yes. I will always carry a large cash component for just such "opportunities"...


Having cash on hand for such mispriced equities is the equivalent of doing this:


----------



## madeincanada

larry81 said:


> Having cash on hand for such mispriced equities is the equivalent of doing this:


I don't understand how your statement goes with the picture.


----------



## Uranium101

madeincanada said:


> I don't understand how your statement goes with the picture.


You are right, the picture should display something like a vampire bat leeching off you.

I believe people need to understand something important regarding the equity named "CASH". Cash is a type of equity that everyone has. It is the default investment that everyone put their "claim on society" into.
By going into cash, you are placing your bet on CASH that it will go up, or everything else goes down, of which was never the case.

I am always 100% invested at all times. I am now 125% invested by the way. However, I do have access to more cash if I want because I can borrow cheaply (under 5% unsecured). All the claim cheques my day time job pay me goes directly into reducing that minor debt. I couldn't resist not to borrow to invest back last year August - December.


----------



## larry81

madeincanada said:


> I don't understand how your statement goes with the picture.


Sitting on the sideline, waiting the good opportunity to come at you.

Far fetched but still, any excuse is a good reason to post a crocodile picture on a finance forum !


----------



## Belguy

The stock market has it wrong!!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...gger-market-says-theyre-wrong/article2328671/

And so, what is an investor to do--turn to bonds? Nope!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rty-unlikely-to-have-much-fun/article2328240/

And forget about GIC's as well.

Perhaps the best recourse is to put your money under your mattress for the next little while!! Well, wouldn't you be happy with no more losses!!


----------



## gibor365

XIV is in strong uptrend, even when S&P is going slightly down (like today) , XIV is shooting up. Can we see XIV in double digits this week? Last year when VIX was today's level, XIV was trading at $17. $14 ... If VIX will stay current levels, can we see XIV surging ?


----------



## blin10

Uranium101 said:


> You are right, the picture should display something like a vampire bat leeching off you.
> 
> I believe people need to understand something important regarding the equity named "CASH". Cash is a type of equity that everyone has. It is the default investment that everyone put their "claim on society" into.
> By going into cash, you are placing your bet on CASH that it will go up, or everything else goes down, of which was never the case.
> 
> *I am always 100% invested at all times. I am now 125% invested by the way. However, I do have access to more cash if I want because I can borrow cheaply (under 5% unsecured). *All the claim cheques my day time job pay me goes directly into reducing that minor debt. I couldn't resist not to borrow to invest back last year August - December.


good luck to you, if markets sink you'll be in a lot of pain


----------



## ddkay

I don't know what to think about VIX right now, volatility has crashed even harder than August 2010-February 2011, I am pretty sure this is unprecedented. We're at the lowest trading volume in 10 years, this market is in control by the machines.

Have you seen this graphic of HFT activity? The market is changing, a lot. No one is complaining though because right now they are moving prices up.












> On Friday, Aug 5, 2011, we processed 1 trillion bytes of data for all U.S. equities, options, futures, and indexes. This is insane. A year ago, when we processed half of that, we thought it was madness. A year before that, when it was 250 billion bytes, we thought the same. There is no new beneficial information in this monstrous pile of data compared to 3 years ago. It is noise, subterfuge, manipulation. The root of all that is wrong with today's markets.
> 
> HFT is sucking the life blood out of the markets: liquidity. It is almost comical, because this is what they claim to supply. No one with any sense wants to post a bid or ask, because they know it will only get hit when it's at their disadvantage. Some give in, and join the arms race. Others leave.
> 
> Take the electronic S&P 500 futures contract, known as the emini, for example. This is, or used to be, a very liquid market. The cumulative size in the 10 levels in the depth of book was often 20,000 contracts on each side. That means a trader could buy or sell 20,000 contracts “instantly” and only move the market 10 ticks or price levels.
> 
> Even during the flash crash, when hot potatoes where flying everywhere, the depth would still accommodate an instant sale of 5,000 to 10,000 or more contracts. Not anymore. On Friday, 2,000 contracts would have sliced right through the entire book. Not during a quiet period, or before a news event.
> 
> Pretty much any minute of trading that day after the 9:54 slide. And it wasn’t just Friday, the trend in the depth of book size has been declining rapidly over the last few week. What used to be the most liquid and active contract in the world, which served as a proxy for the true price of the US stock market for decades, is getting strangled by the speed of light, a weapon wielded by HFT.
> 
> Without going into detail at this time, we think we know one cause of the drop in liquidity. A certain HFT algorithm that we affectionately refer to as The Disruptor, will sell (or buy) enough contracts to cause a market disruption. At the same exact time, this algo softens up the market in ETFs such as SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA and other market index symbols and options on these symbols.
> 
> When the disruptor strikes, many professional arbitrageurs who had placed their bids and offers in the emini suddenly find themselves long or short, and when they go to hedge with ETFs or options, find that market soft and sloppy and get poor fills. Naturally, many of these arbitrageurs realize the strategy no longer works, so they no longer post their bids and offers in the emini. Other HFT algos teach the same lesson — bids or offers resting in the book will only become liabilities to those who can’t compete on speed. Hence the reduction in liquidity.
> 
> So, because people have caught on to the antics of ‘the disruptor‘, they’re reluctant to offer any depth in their emini bids and offers.
> 
> Which presumably means ‘the disruptor‘ will be looking to move on to some other market soon enough.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> I don't know what to think about VIX right now, volatility has crashed even harder than August 2010-February 2011, I am pretty sure this is unprecedented. We're at the lowest trading volume in 10 years, this market is in control by the machines.
> 
> Have you seen this graphic of HFT activity? The market is changing, a lot. No one is complaining though because right now they are moving prices up.


stop reposting ZH bullshit and look outside, greece is defaulting and the sky is actually failing !


----------



## Causalien

I would say that half of it, is a retaliatory strategy by more traditional brokers that obfuscates real client trades with fake trades that are also front ran before the order went through. So divide by 3.


----------



## gibor365

It's weird  US stocks up, gold, oil, CAD$ - up. TSX is down


----------



## Belguy

On the bicentennial of Charles Dickens' birthday, not much has changed. It is still the best of times and the worst of times!!!


----------



## madeincanada

gibor said:


> It's weird  US stocks up, gold, oil, CAD$ - up. TSX is down


Not surprised with our unemployment rate rising.


----------



## KaeJS

I'm getting bored with the market.

What's going on?

Low volume and no volatility?

....Snooze...

I don't think my portfolio has moved +- $75 in the past 5 days.

Maybe I'm just diversified.


----------



## KaeJS

gibor said:


> It's weird  US stocks up, gold, oil, *CAD$* - up. TSX is down


This is really not good for me.

I want the CAD to die.

I really need USD to go up 0.02 cents over the CAD.


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> This is really not good for me.
> 
> I want the CAD to die.


Be careful what you wish for!
The effects of a substantially weak CAD on our finances could be pretty bad.
People who wistfully dream of a 60c. CAD in the hopes that it will revive our defunct manufacturing sector are living in the 1980s.

I think the CAD is fine where it is...in fact, a few cents above parity would be good too.


----------



## KaeJS

60c CAD is way too low.

I want $1.00 USD = $0.95 CAD.

But yes, always careful when wishing.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I'm getting bored with the market.
> 
> What's going on?
> 
> Low volume and no volatility?
> 
> ....Snooze...
> 
> I don't think my portfolio has moved +- $75 in the past 5 days.
> 
> Maybe I'm just diversified.


So, what are you compaining ?! My portfolio last 5 days mostly going up $50-150 plus dividends ...and it's fine with me  My US stock portion is exactly 1/3 and I have bunch of defensive blue chips who is fine with such environment 
As for ratio US/CAD, for me parity is fine, for my stock a little high US$ is better, but for my travelling to US/Europe - vice verss


----------



## Belguy

CPP news:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cpp-managers-look-to-europe/article2333760/


----------



## dogleg

KaeJS: When I read comments like yours I have to ask , don't you think Canadians can compete? And what about Can. manufacturing etc that need to buy their materials from the US ? When I ran my company I resented people whining about a rising Can. dollar. Most of my parts (chips) were from US plants- not so much now with so much off-shore mfg. I guess everybody has their own axe to grind.


----------



## Belguy

Apparently, I am not as good a portfolio manager as those running the CPP investments. They have experienced a return of 9.1% over the past 12 months ended January 31. Over the same time period, my 'Couch Potato' portfolio of mainly ETF's has only gained 2.5% and I remained fully invested. Oh well, at least I don't have a portfolio of managed mutual funds or the MER's would have pretty much wiped out even that gain!!!

At this rate, I will eventually become rich but not until my next lifetime!!


----------



## KaeJS

dogleg said:


> KaeJS: When I read comments like yours I have to ask , don't you think Canadians can compete?


Of course Canadians compete. In fact, I encourage and want the competition. However, I would first like to see the USD 2 cents higher than the CAD so I can exchange $7000.

Once I've done my exchange, the USD/CAD can go to hell or the moon, for all I care. I just want a favourable exchange so I don't lose out after Questrade takes a 1.5% spread!!


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> Apparently, I am not as good a portfolio manager as those running the CPP investments. They have experienced a return of 9.1% over the past 12 months ended January 31. Over the same time period, my 'Couch Potato' portfolio of mainly ETF's has only gained 2.5% and I remained fully invested.


Ten years is the proper timeframe for comparison. And CPIB is an active manager as well. Plus they can be classed as private equity.


----------



## gibor365

U.S. stock futures rose, signaling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rebound from its first weekly drop of 2012, as Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos won approval for austerity measures needed to secure rescue funds.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...e-as-greek-parliament-approves-austerity.html

Who took a chance and bought XIV or TNA end day Friday, can make nice gains tomorrow  , but it's not me  (I just added BCE and PEP)


----------



## Belguy

This is just a snapshot in time and doesn't mean a heck of a lot, but as of the end of January, these are the TEN YEAR total returns of the four components of the 'Classic Couch Potato' portfolio:

XIU: +7.14%
XSP: -1.06%
XIN: -0.18%

XBB: +6.46%

Thus, you could consider your own asset allocation to determine roughly how well you would have done over the past TEN YEARS if using only the above four broad-based, low fee ETF investments as per the 'Classic Couch Potato' formula. If you are an index investor, and strayed from this basic portfolio, you might have done better--or worse!! 

If you stuck with the original components of the 'Classic Couch Potato' portfolio, I don't think that you would now be out dancing in the streets!!!!

Reference: www.ishares.ca

Going forward, nobody can know how the equity components will perform but it is a fairly safe bet that the XBB bond component will not perform as well and so will not offer as much support to the overall portfolio.

P.S. No wonder that I am still poor!!


----------



## Argonaut

The Permanent Portfolio on the other hand has much more than doubled your money. No sense in spending time calculating each component when this fund gives a picture of the overall progression:

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=MUTF:PRPFX&hl=en


----------



## sags

Rioting all over Greece.

The politicians better have an airplane handy at the airport.


----------



## Jon_Snow

A county burning, and some posters are more concerned that their portfolio is up in the morning... nice.


----------



## financialnoob

The riot won't last much longer. The Greeks don't work that hard, remember?


----------



## KaeJS

gibor said:


> (I just added BCE and PEP)


I need BCE to go up to $40.50.

I've got way too much riding on BCE. It's not stressing me out, and I'm not panicking, but its uncomfortable to say in the least.

No 21 year old should have 600 shares of BCE.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I don't think there is anything wrong at all with a 21 year old having that many BCE shares. Its HOW the 21 year old KaeJS gets that many shares that is the concern... my nerves couldn't handle what you do, thats for sure.


----------



## KaeJS

^ That's what I meant 

As long as it hits $40.50 by April 1, 2012, I'll be okay. 

With the worst possible time to hit $40.50 being Around March 9, 2012.

I've got a sell limit at $40.50 set for GTC. However, I will probably remove it for the first two weeks of March and then place it back.

I would be really unhappy if it sold for $40.50 on March 9. Ideally, the third week of March (20-24) is where I want to sell it.


----------



## gibor365

Jon_Snow said:


> A county burning, and some posters are more concerned that their portfolio is up in the morning... nice.


What county is burning?


----------



## Jon_Snow

Hey, I'm 6 beers into my evening...


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy said:


> If you stuck with the original components of the 'Classic Couch Potato' portfolio, I don't think that you would now be out dancing in the streets!!!!


The 10-year returns of a 25% allocation each to Canadian bonds/Canadian stocks/US Stocks/EAFE stocks would be 3.76%. That's enough to turn a $1,000 investment into $1,440. Not exactly barn burning returns but respectable IMO. You are ignoring a couple of things:

1. You shouldn't look at portfolio components in isolation. And don't forget that rebalancing sometimes (but not always) boosts returns.

2. XSP and XIN are both currency hedged which has resulted in a huge performance penalty in the recent past.


----------



## newbie

Jon_Snow said:


> A county burning, and some posters are more concerned that their portfolio is up in the morning... nice.


interesting comment.
the country enters a major battle ground, and stocks will rally tomorrow.
and yet people will stick their neck out there and go long.
in the meantime lets forget about japan's GDP numbers.


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> ^ That's what I meant
> 
> As long as it hits $40.50 by April 1, 2012, I'll be okay.
> 
> With the worst possible time to hit $40.50 being Around March 9, 2012.
> 
> I've got a sell limit at $40.50 set for GTC. However, I will probably remove it for the first two weeks of March and then place it back.
> 
> I would be really unhappy if it sold for $40.50 on March 9. Ideally, the third week of March (20-24) is where I want to sell it.


u should have bought DMND for a quick profit.
have you?


----------



## KaeJS

DMND is too risky for me.


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> DMND is too risky for me.


kid
u really impress me


----------



## gibor365

newbie said:


> interesting comment.
> the country enters a major battle ground, and stocks will rally tomorrow.
> and yet people will stick their neck out there and go long.
> in the meantime lets forget about japan's GDP numbers.


In Africa thousands die from hunger, in East Europe tens or hundreds die from freezing weather, so I should be always sad when marker is going up?!


----------



## gibor365

newbie said:


> u should have bought DMND for a quick profit.
> have you?


DMND? Lama?


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> In Africa thousands die from hunger, in East Europe tens or hundreds die from freezing weather, so I should be always sad when marker is going up?!


i did not say u should be sad chaver.
u and i have many more reasons to be sad.
i am just saying that one should be carefull where they stick their neck into.
i am very sad when a chaial dies , if u know what i mean.
it is the paradox of the markets , that is all.
i sure as hell am long oil


----------



## gibor365

newbie said:


> i did not say u should be sad chaver.
> u and i have many more reasons to be sad.


That what I mean.... believe me that couple of fires in Greece is one the last things that "ihpat li" ...same like riots when some soccer team losing important game


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> That what I mean.... believe me that couple of fires in Greece is one the last things that "ihpat li" ...same like riots when some soccer team losing important game


taamin li
lo eichpat li she hayeavanim iargu eichad et hasheni.
ata zocher ma karah be mischakey haolimpiada bezman she haisraelim nichnasu ba stadion?
any lo shachachty ma ha bnei zonot haele asu lanu.
lazazel lahem


----------



## gibor365

newbie said:


> taamin li
> lo eichpat li she hayeavanim iargu eichad et hasheni.
> ata zocher ma karah be mischakey haolimpiada bezman she haisraelim nichnasu ba stadion?
> any lo shachachty ma ha bnei zonot haele asu lanu.
> lazazel lahem


Amen!

Couple of months ago on this forum one greek antishemi (named Darius) wrote a looooot of BS negdejnu


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> Amen!
> 
> Couple of months ago on this forum one greek antishemi (named Darius) wrote a looooot of BS negdejnu


tislach li
halachti lishon
kol Tov lecha
tov she haantishemi lo nimtza po ioter


----------



## hboy43

KaeJS said:


> I need BCE to go up to $40.50.
> 
> I've got way too much riding on BCE. It's not stressing me out, and I'm not panicking, but its uncomfortable to say in the least.
> 
> No 21 year old should have 600 shares of BCE.


Better than 600 shares of "Old Moose Pasture Mines".

The path to a million here took wandering down the path to $100,000 in losses. Failure is usually a necessary component of success.

hboy43


----------



## newbie

hboy43 said:


> Better than 600 shares of "Old Moose Pasture Mines".
> 
> The path to a million here took wandering down the path to $100,000 in losses. Failure is usually a necessary component of success.
> 
> hboy43


H
would u care to elaborate ur loss trajectory?
as usual u are very courteous.
i find it usefull to learn from other's mistakes.
thks


----------



## Jon_Snow

This starting to look like a rally running out of steam. And KaeJS, I think it more likely that BCE is under $39 soon, rather than the $40.50 you need. Hope I'm wrong (I own a mere 250 BCE shares  ).

I don't fully understand margin investing... what will happen exactly if it doesn't bounce back for you?


----------



## zylon

*moose pasture*

Moose pasture is very valuable to the moose
and to the lover of moose meat.

signed: Dormouse


----------



## hboy43

newbie said:


> H
> would u care to elaborate ur loss trajectory?
> as usual u are very courteous.
> i find it usefull to learn from other's mistakes.
> thks


Held a variety of names to bancruptcy, 5 or 6: Canadian Fracmaster, White Rose, American Eco Corporation, Nortel, others. Now I have > 90% large cap stocks that I mostly hold forever, sell some when high, buy some when low, collect the divvys in between.

hboy43


----------



## ddkay

70% of NASDAQ components reported lower earnings than a year ago period. Yet the NASDAQ is up 18% since Thanksgiving, mostly thanks to Apple.

1999.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> 70% of NASDAQ components reported lower earnings than a year ago period. Yet the NASDAQ is up 18% since Thanksgiving, mostly thanks to Apple.
> 
> 1999.


Here can be 2 reasons: 
1. this year NASDAQ run up too much w/o fundamentals support
2. last year NASDAQ fell down too much despite fundamentals support (and now just in positive correction) 

P.S. Up because of AAPL?! I read that last week 100% of NASDAQ stocks were above 200SMA


----------



## blin10

spy building base once again... it can easily lunch from here up north again


----------



## gibor365

blin10 said:


> spy building base once again... it can easily lunch from here up north again


I wish


----------



## newbie

hboy43 said:


> Held a variety of names to bancruptcy, 5 or 6: Canadian Fracmaster, White Rose, American Eco Corporation, Nortel, others. Now I have > 90% large cap stocks that I mostly hold forever, sell some when high, buy some when low, collect the divvys in between.
> 
> hboy43


thks alot for the brief info Hboy.
like u said before u have been trading for awhile.
the idea sure is right .
buy low and sell high, and i believe u also cut ur losses when needed.
ECA that you are holding , IMO , for a long term is extremely cheap.
u probably have TRP right?
GL


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> Here can be 2 reasons:
> 1. this year NASDAQ run up too much w/o fundamentals support
> 2. last year NASDAQ fell down too much despite fundamentals support (and now just in positive correction)
> 
> P.S. Up because of AAPL?! I read that last week 100% of NASDAQ stocks were above 200SMA





ddkay said:


> 70% of NASDAQ components reported lower earnings than a year ago period. Yet the NASDAQ is up 18% since Thanksgiving, mostly thanks to Apple.
> 
> 1999.


dunno bout nasdaq but boy , tis a bull market people.
the last 5 minutes rally was impressive.
u just can't fight it.......yet


----------



## gibor365

newbie said:


> dunno bout nasdaq but boy , tis a bull market people.
> the last 5 minutes rally was impressive.
> u just can't fight it.......yet


I;m not fighting....I still hold all my long positions (and I have a lot of them), just became a little more conservative 

newbie.... beHazlaha haver


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> I;m not fighting....I still hold all my long positions (and I have a lot of them), just became a little more conservative
> 
> newbie.... beHazlaha haver


behatzlacha lecha Gam ken


----------



## ddkay

I wanted to post this including February 14th but they haven't refreshed yet. The highest values ever recorded in the last 10 years (that's as far back as this data goes):

98% just before the May 2010 flash crash
96% in September 2003 some months after Nasdaq 100 bottomed


----------



## newbie

ddkay said:


> The highest values ever recorded in the last 10 years (that's as far back as this data goes). I wanted to post this including February 14th but they haven't refreshed yet.
> 
> 98% just before the May 2010 flash crash
> 96% in September 2003 some months after Nasdaq 100 bottomed


D
i am sure ya know that i am bearish right?
nevertheless the mkt still is in bulish mode.
I said in another post that the mkt lags and it will come downn.... in time.
but i have been wrong so many times that it really does not matter.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> I wanted to post this including February 14th but they haven't refreshed yet. The highest values ever recorded in the last 10 years (that's as far back as this data goes):


Sorry, I don't get what you trying to say... in both this occasions (98% just before the May 2010 flash crash
96% in September 2003 some months after Nasdaq 100 bottomed), NASDAQ started long uptrend


----------



## ddkay

I wasn't saying anything, just showing it's 80% not 100% atm. Also I said mostly thanks to AAPL because AAPL composes over 18% of NDX.


----------



## ddkay

Hedge fund bubble, high frequency flash crashes, social unrest, currency wars, trade wars, EMU breakup, Eastern Europe foreign debt issues, European social security crack, end of structured product led commodity boom, Singapore housing, Canada/Australian property crash, wholesale funding markets, Japanese JPY devaluation or JGB panic, Chinese soft or hard landing, emerging market underperformance

Lots of things to think about, meanwhile this a fun wall of worry to climb on!


----------



## ddkay

Don't forget on February 29th the ECB will release 1 trillion EUR or more of LTRO money. I still expect Greece to default before then but the excess liquidity should absorb most of the shock. If not there is no default and they release 1 trillion anyway I would expect the greatest rally in the history of the markets.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Don't forget on February 29th the ECB will release 1 trillion EUR or more of LTRO money. I still expect Greece to default before then but the excess liquidity should absorb most of the shock. If not there is no default and they release 1 trillion anyway I would expect the greatest rally in the history of the markets.


Every rally is welcome


----------



## Belguy

As they say, "equity investors always live in the land of hope".


----------



## newbie

ddkay said:


> Don't forget on February 29th the ECB will release 1 trillion EUR or more of LTRO money. I still expect Greece to default before then but the excess liquidity should absorb most of the shock. If not there is no default and they release 1 trillion anyway I would expect the greatest rally in the history of the markets.


i know.
its their QE in the go.
u r probably right. add to that election year..... and yet i ain't joining it .
on the same note i am looking at some swingtrading of certain companies that are still being clobbered.
GL


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> Every rally is welcome


Chacham balaila ata .
Mamzer


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> This starting to look like a rally running out of steam. And KaeJS, I think it more likely that BCE is under $39 soon, rather than the $40.50 you need. Hope I'm wrong (I own a mere 250 BCE shares  ).
> 
> I don't fully understand margin investing... what will happen exactly if it doesn't bounce back for you?


Well, I imagine, I get fed to the pigs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcqXpDwi5jQ

In all seriousness, if it gets too bad, I get screwed, lose $1000 or so, get a margin call, and write it off as an expensive learning experience and mistake.


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> Well, I imagine, I get fed to the pigs.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcqXpDwi5jQ
> 
> In all seriousness, if it gets too bad, I get screwed, lose $1000 or so, get a margin call, and write it off as an expensive learning experience and mistake.


damn u r a pessimist
u should be the guy wearing glasses for crying out loud


----------



## KaeJS

I am.

It's better to be a pessimist.

It's more realistic that bad **** will happen. And then when it does happen, you aren't as upset. And when good stuff happens, you're 2x happier.


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> I am.
> 
> It's better to be a pessimist.
> 
> It's more realistic that bad **** will happen. And then when it does happen, you aren't as upset. And when good stuff happens, you're 2x happier.


well
u said the same thing about TLM.
in my own way i told ya to hold , meaning i implied.
u made ur decision then.
u will make ur decision now.
i know nothing bout BCE so i cant tell ya what i think.
as for TLM , always buy on weakness, but that is me . what do i know anyway, i almost got raped by FAZ?
i made 1 friggin dollar on a boatload of money invested.
that really pissed me off but i did not give up the trade.
nevertheless i gave up a trade today on NG and lost a small amount.


----------



## KaeJS

What I don't understand is why BCE has dropped so much.

Sure, they missed estimated by $0.04/share. Big Deal. They still had 53% revenue growth. They still have a 5+% yield. They are completely sheltered from International Exposure and their business model is diversified and not going anywhere.

What's the problem? I just don't see it.


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> What I don't understand is why BCE has dropped so much.
> 
> Sure, they missed estimated by $0.04/share. Big Deal. They still had 53% revenue growth. They still have a 5+% yield. They are completely sheltered from International Exposure and their business model is diversified and not going anywhere.
> 
> What's the problem? I just don't see it.


how about OPTION SELLERS
I think Humble mother of all pies should explain.
i know NUTHIN BOUT options.


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> What I don't understand is why BCE has dropped so much.
> 
> Sure, they missed estimated by $0.04/share. Big Deal. They still had 53% revenue growth. They still have a 5+% yield. They are completely sheltered from International Exposure and their business model is diversified and not going anywhere.
> 
> What's the problem? I just don't see it.


i think that if u double down u break even plus some.
do ur calcs, but u have to be real fast to get out with profit , unless the thing cratters.
i doubt it.
just my .02 cents


----------



## Eder

KaeJS said:


> What I don't understand is why BCE has dropped so much.
> 
> What's the problem? I just don't see it.


You are impatient is the problem I think...(no offense intended)


----------



## Argonaut

I keep hearing about this one dollar profit on FAZ, but from the ski-slope chart YTD it is literally impossible. Prove me wrong with a screenshot?


----------



## blin10

Argonaut said:


> I keep hearing about this one dollar profit on FAZ, but from the ski-slope chart YTD it is literally impossible. Prove me wrong with a screenshot?


he is a joke, he was saying how he was 200k in faz at 37 average, and then faz fell straight down to 27, I don't know how he could make it out with $1 profit... his whole story is probably fictional anyways


----------



## jcgd

Eder said:


> You are impatient is the problem I think...(no offense intended)


KaeJS, I think so too, because you are scared of your margin. If you are confident enough to use margin, use it. If you lose out because you are too scared to hold a position than the margin is hindering your process, or you shouldn't be taking the position in the first place because you have no conviction in it.


----------



## KaeJS

Eder said:


> *You are impatient is the problem* I think...(no offense intended)





jcgd said:


> KaeJS, I think so too, because *you are scared of your margin.* If you are confident enough to use margin, use it. If you lose out because you are too scared to hold a position than the margin is hindering your process, o*r you shouldn't be taking the position in the first place because you have no conviction in it*.


I think you are both right. I am impatient.


----------



## humble_pie

argo it is impossible.

but then it's unlikely he ever held any faz in the first place.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I think you are both right. I am impatient.


KaeJS, the last my stock I'm worrried about is BCE


----------



## Causalien

Hmmm...

My foot soldier on the ground in Germany just told me that within a month, the German population have done a 180 with their view on Greek. It is now acceptable to take a haircut from their interest income if the fall in Euro created so much export for them. This, I think is very significant and is counter to what the media is reporting.

Who is that other guy on this forum who's in Germany? Can you confirm? I remember you helping me out with billing my customer during Christmas.

Edit: Just confirmed with another source. The above feeling is mostly amongst the business elite and stock analysts. The general population has not catch on to the fact yet.


----------



## Causalien

ddkay said:


> I wanted to post this including February 14th but they haven't refreshed yet. The highest values ever recorded in the last 10 years (that's as far back as this data goes):
> 
> 98% just before the May 2010 flash crash
> 96% in September 2003 some months after Nasdaq 100 bottomed


Web 2.0 bubble will touch at least 4250... though I wonder how that can be calculated in with Facebook. Maybe an ETF that tracks tech is a better graph. So far, it seems to me we are still just following the average trend line.


----------



## Argonaut

I just find this really funny.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...oup-bank-of-america-in-fourth-quarter-1-.html


----------



## newbie

humble_pie said:


> argo it is impossible.
> 
> but then it's unlikely he ever held any faz in the first place.





Argonaut said:


> I keep hearing about this one dollar profit on FAZ, but from the ski-slope chart YTD it is literally impossible. Prove me wrong with a screenshot?


hmm
let me see here
nah 
i aint waisting my time with both of ya
the Mr.options guy and the long gone john silver.
by the way i like this little channel silver is into.
do u have any idea how much i made so far between this seesaw of SLV argo?
u both make me laugh
aha
by the way Humbie bamby i am still waiting for the 1 dollar handle ur friend equity val mentioned and TRP actually went up yesterday... go figure lol
hey since ur the king of options try some on natural gas by the way.
cant wait to hear ur POSTED results lol.


----------



## hboy43

gibor said:


> KaeJS, the last my stock I'm worrried about is BCE


I'm only vaguely aware of KaeJS's positions but I believe his real problem is 600 shares of BCE is > 50% of his net worth. No matter how well good ship BCE is hidden in the weeds, a torpedo might still find it.

My torpedo collection over the years is huge. I even have one that hit HMCS BCE when the buyout failed years ago. Fortunately I have 20 ships in the fleet at all times, so I lose the odd battle, but not the war.

hboy43


----------



## Toronto.gal

hboy43 said:


> Fortunately I have 20 ships in the fleet at all times, so I lose the odd battle, but not the war.


I like that!

*KaeJS:* I hope you did not sell.


----------



## gibor365

11:39 AM Greece solved. Eurozone central banks will take part in the Greek debt restructuring, exchanging their holdings of the country's paper for new debt, reports Reuters


----------



## ddkay

Old news, still no private sector deal


----------



## KaeJS

Is it just me, or is the market losing a lot of steam now?

No EOD Rally?


----------



## Causalien

Mine is going up strongly near the end.


----------



## KaeJS

The charts show its OK.

But all my stocks are dropping. 

I was expecting an EOD rally. I guess there's still 15 minutes... We'll see.


----------



## KaeJS

Lots of selling going on. Volume is high.


----------



## jcgd

Some big gains today. Highest gain in two weeks.


----------



## Mockingbird

newbie said:


> ... i cant trade futures due to margin requirements.
> i dont daytrade it either...





newbie said:


> ... if someone calls trading those ETFS GAMBLING, imagine trading Futures like i do....



Been in the business for quite some time and I thought I've seen them all.
His comments are just too bizarre, especially for someone who supposedly knows how to trade - IMHO.

MB


----------



## gibor365

Mockingbird said:


> Been in the business for quite some time and I thought I've seen them all.
> His comments are just too bizarre, especially for someone who supposedly knows how to trade - IMHO.
> 
> MB


Maybe he couldn't trade before, but can do it now?!


----------



## gibor365

Back to market 
Wanted to ask TA gurus....don't you think that we have inverse head and shoulders for oil and oil gonna rully to 130-135?


----------



## ddkay

Not possible


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Not possible


why not?


----------



## Causalien

Inverse head and shoulder was Sept~October 2011. I don't see any right now.


----------



## gibor365

Causalien said:


> Inverse head and shoulder was Sept~October 2011. I don't see any right now.


Check weekly chart for $WTIC, bottom of left shoulder End of June 2011, 2nd shoulder - mid December, Head - October, and neckline at about $102


----------



## Causalien

Ah, I don't usually watch weeklies since they are not significant in my view.

In any case, reverse head and shoulder in an upward trending chart doesn't have as much relevance in the TA style I am using since it's a reversal indicator, not a trend continuation indicator.


----------



## Belguy

I am 68 years old and have just completed adjusting my asset allocation to a more conservative bent. I changed from a 60/40 equity to bond allocation to a 50/40/10 equity to bond to cash allocation which makes me feel more comfortable in today's economic environment. When I reach 70, I plan to adjust this again to a 40/50/10 equity to bond to cash allocation and then change again every two years until I reach a 20/70/10 equity to bond to cash allocation at age 74. 

Does this sound like a reasonable plan without knowing my entire financial situation?


----------



## gibor365

I think you're investing too much into bonds (70% at some point)...I'd better increase cash/equities portion and decrease bonds.
When you talking about equities, it depends on what kind of them , there is 2 big differencies between let's say VWO and CDZ..
Also what is your yield on cost and do you DRIP?


----------



## Causalien

Belguy said:


> I am 68 years old and have just completed adjusting my asset allocation to a more conservative bent. I changed from a 60/40 equity to bond allocation to a 50/40/10 equity to bond to cash allocation which makes me feel more comfortable in today's economic environment. When I reach 70, I plan to adjust this again to a 40/50/10 equity to bond to cash allocation and then change again every two years until I reach a 20/70/10 equity to bond to cash allocation at age 74.
> 
> Does this sound like a reasonable plan without knowing my entire financial situation?


Yep. Very reasonable.


----------



## ddkay

US markets are closed Monday for Presidents Day. Perfect day to default?

Part of the bailout plan is supposed to be to immediately recapitalize Greece banks. The contagion issue isn't with GGBs, it's with the banks there that hold EUR 130 bln in deposits. I have a small bet on NBG that it will receive more money than it needs or get some inflate-on-demand system from the ECB liquidity operation. I could be wrong, though, and Greece depositors withdraw every last penny and it spirals completely out of control and I'll lose everything on that trade.

You can't buy and hold any bear ETFs or short an index because you'll lose half of it to their stall tactics like the "a PSI deal is minutes away" headline has been repeated all year.

Better to wait and see. Still have majority in cash on the sidelines.


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> I am 68 years old and have just completed adjusting my asset allocation to a more conservative bent. I changed from a 60/40 equity to bond allocation to a 50/40/10 equity to bond to cash allocation which makes me feel more comfortable in today's economic environment. When I reach 70, I plan to adjust this again to a 40/50/10 equity to bond to cash allocation and then change again every two years until I reach a 20/70/10 equity to bond to cash allocation at age 74.
> 
> Does this sound like a reasonable plan without knowing my entire financial situation?


Do you have an emergency fund?

How are you handling your current year withdrawals?

(Knowing your tolerance for volatility, I would think you should be 30/70 after accounting for current expenditures and emergency fund.)


----------



## ddkay

What was supposed to happen Monday is rescheduled again: Greek cabinet agrees to aim to open debt swap window by March 8 and complete it by March 11 - RTRS

Would be really interesting to see them push it beyond March 27.


----------



## Causalien

I think it's a nice strategy against the market. Lie and delay. You can't trust what the politician says, so you take away the actual spike of an announcement.


----------



## humble_pie

i was just coasting along minding my own business & watering my indoor windowsill herbs & harvesting my options & keeping an eye on ddkay. When all of a sudden newwbee da bomba up & said he'd converted to bull.

now that guy had a flawless, perfect, 100% failure rate. Everything he touched turned to poison. No exceptions. He even said that shorting a stock was a good bull strategy.

so we have all been alerted, if not warned. It's time to think about pullbackz & profitz.


----------



## gibor365

humble_pie said:


> i was just coasting along minding my own business & watering my indoor windowsill herbs & harvesting my options & keeping an eye on ddkay. When all of a sudden newwbee da bomba up & said he'd converted to bull.


It was several weeks ago, now ddkay said that he's mostly in cash 



> Better to wait and see. Still have majority in cash on the sidelines.


----------



## humble_pie

it was a joke gibor.

newwbee is not ddkay. As i said, ddkay is a poster whose TA i like to watch.

newwbee is newbee da troll. He only got bullish last week. This means it's time to start looking for new shoots & old growth where spring pruning can be carried out.


----------



## ddkay

I was 100% long in January and sold everything then because I expected a serious correction after we have been rallying non-stop for over a month, CMF had just recorded the most users ever online, etc.

What happened instead was we got a really weak 34pt correction over 4 sessions.

Now, two weeks later we're making fresh 2012 highs. A 1361.25 ES close printed Friday. I had to buy something ridiculously risky like Greek banks because the market is running away. OMG S&P 1450, austerity brings prosperity, bears better get back in the forest lol. $ZNGA $FB $GRPN $TQQQ l8r.

After all the concern analysts had about inflation, China made a surprise RRR cut by 0.50bp anyway. That adds $63 billion of liquidity, on top of the EUR 1 trillion everyone is expecting Wed 02/29. The one million dollar question is whether those one trillion euros are intended to absorb the shocks from a default or not.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> I was 100% long in January and sold everything then because I expected a serious correction after we have been rallying non-stop for over a month, CMF had just recorded the most users ever online, etc.
> 
> What happened instead was we got a really weak 34pt correction over 4 sessions.
> 
> Now, two weeks later we're making fresh 2012 highs. A 1361.25 ES close printed Friday. I had to buy something ridiculously risky like Greek banks because the market is running away. OMG S&P 1450, austerity brings prosperity, bears better get back in the forest lol. $ZNGA $FB $GRPN $TQQQ l8r.
> 
> After all the concern analysts had about inflation, China made a surprise RRR cut by 0.50bp anyway. That adds $63 billion of liquidity, on top of the EUR 1 trillion everyone is expecting Wed 02/29. The one million dollar question is whether those one trillion euros are intended to absorb the shocks from a default or not.


Are you still hold Greek banks?! 
What is your game plan for Feb-Mar?


----------



## ddkay

I put all I can afford to lose in National Bank of Greece, I am still in and already down on the trade, but I'm using Belguy's philosophy so I am allowed to hold it to infinity or zero and frantically worry about it. The plan is wait and see if the world's governments and banks set a very important precedent with Greece by forcing bondholder losses and uses more money than God to land the markets on Pluto. If that happens part two is, sell before any other weak countries ask for the same thing. I don't believe central banks will be able to carry unlimited toxic debt for Europe forever.

Lehman's effect was downplayed and underestimated and I personally think Greece will be too. Nobody knows what happens until it happens, GGB maturity date is March 20 but Greece has a grace period of one week to make the payment, so the absolute deadline for PSI resolution and effective firewall building is March 27.

I'm visiting cool Koala land in April so I hope I don't have to think about the markets very much after then.


----------



## larry81

> *Iran stops oil sales to British, French companies*
> (Reuters) - Iran has stopped selling crude to British and French companies, the oil ministry said on Sunday, in a retaliatory measure against fresh EU sanctions on the Islamic state's lifeblood, oil.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/19/us-iran-oil-europe-idUSTRE81I07W20120219


----------



## gibor365

larry81 said:


> http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/19/us-iran-oil-europe-idUSTRE81I07W20120219


it's kinda supporting inverse head and shoulders pattern on WTI


----------



## Toronto.gal

ddkay said:


> I put all I can afford to lose in National Bank of Greece, I am still in and already down on the trade.....I'm visiting cool Koala land in April so I hope I don't have to think about the markets very much after then.


So I still have a chance to get it, in that case......nah, I've been trading IRE instead [I still remember Belguy's reaction first time I posted my IRE trade] & holding some to infinity 2 I guess, but NBG has never tempted me, wonder why. 

Sounds like you'll have a great Spring lined up, or should I say Autumn?


----------



## Belguy

This European mess is starting to get very tiring!! Anyway, I don't consider it market timing but I have now permanently adjusted my asset allocation to 50 per cent equities to 40 per cent bonds to 10 per cent cash.

That said, I am still not comfortable. Should I stick with cash or put that 10 per cent cash back into bonds via the XCB?

http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/XCB.htm

Or, might the VSB be a better choice at this time?

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/documents/literature/F9323EN.pdf


----------



## kcowan

Do you have a reserve fund and one year expenses in cash? Does that make your ratio 30/70?


----------



## larry81

So speaking of market timing, anyone following the natural gaz market ?

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:GAZ

Look the 1y, 2y,3y chart...

I am very tempted to take a position but dont want to be too deep into energy


----------



## larry81

oh wow WTI crude up almost 2% as i write this, at 105$ per barrel !


----------



## gibor365

larry81 said:


> oh wow WTI crude up almost 2% as i write this, at 105$ per barrel !


Indexes Futures also opened pretty good


----------



## Belguy

Many are predicting an average price for regular gas at $5.00 a gallon by Memorial Day in the U.S.

I don't know whether that is good or bad?


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Many are predicting an average price for regular gas at $5.00 a gallon by Memorial Day in the U.S.
> 
> I don't know whether that is good or bad?


It's good for TSLA


----------



## Jungle

Is the tsx open tomorrow for Family day?


----------



## gibor365

Jungle said:


> Is the tsx open tomorrow for Family day?


no, nyse also closed....


----------



## KaeJS

I hate it when the market goes on "Holidays".


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> I hate it when the market goes on "Holidays".


What is going with your trade sheet KaeJS, i see a lot of sub 0.20% profit/loss trades ?

Are those performed on margin ?


----------



## KaeJS

Yes.

They are small profits that I notice I can make when a stock is frequently bouncing back and forth between a few cents. I buy on margin and as soon as my order gets filled, I immediately place a sell order to get rid of it. 

I try to be very picky about my entry price and less picky about my selling price as I don't want to hold overnight due to the margin.


----------



## Miser

China goes with a version of QE....drop bank reserve cash by .50%

Stimulates stocks....looks like an artificial rise......


----------



## Uranium101

Miser said:


> China goes with a version of QE....drop bank reserve cash by .50%
> 
> Stimulates stocks....looks like an artificial rise......


you must take a course named Economic 101.


----------



## Miser

Uranium101 said:


> you must take a course named Economic 101.


Wading my memory thru this crazed time.....whats your slant...


----------



## ddkay

QE happens in asset purchases, China's central bank (PBoC) is not doing outright asset purchases, they just announced a surprise required reserve ratio cut for their banks effective this upcoming Friday.

Why did they do it? China's exports fell below GDP growth, current account surplus was less than planned monetary base growth, so using a sterilization mechanism was necessary. The RRR cut expands lending by forcing banks balance sheets to find new growth, this drives local fixed asset investment by Chinese state-owned enterprises and re-balancing can be achieved internally according to the CPC's targets.

Also I have learned that Chinese banks are party controlled and MoF and PBoC owned so they should be able to self-fund bailouts for a very long time because of capital controls and no dependency on external capital. Their biggest concern is rapid RMB appreciation, but the long term plan is after-all that exports falls while productivity growth takes its place.

For now this looks like a "soft landing" / normal cycle adjustment, I wouldn't worry about them until you have to.


----------



## Miser

ddkay said:


> *QE happens in asset purchases, China's central bank (PBoC) is not doing outright asset purchases*, they just announced a surprise required reserve ratio cut for their banks effective this upcoming Friday.
> 
> Why did they do it? China's exports fell below GDP growth, current account surplus was less than planned monetary base growth, so using a sterilization mechanism was necessary. The RRR cut expands lending by forcing banks balance sheets to find new growth, this drives local fixed asset investment by Chinese state-owned enterprises and re-balancing can be achieved internally according to the CPC's targets.
> 
> Also I have learned that Chinese banks are party controlled and MoF and PBoC owned so they should be able to self-fund bailouts for a very long time because of capital controls and no dependency on external capital. Their biggest concern is rapid RMB appreciation, but the long term plan is after-all that exports falls while productivity growth takes its place.
> 
> For now this looks like a "soft landing" / normal cycle adjustment, I wouldn't worry about them until you have to.


This still creates liquidity??? As does buying your own bonds. A pre curser?


----------



## Belguy

Three years into a lost decade for the markets:

http://cawidgets.morningstar.ca/ArticleTemplate/ArticleGL.aspx?id=537096

I am hoping to start making money again when I am in my 80's and 90's!!


----------



## Miser

I have stopped being an investor and now am a trader.
Buy and hold is no longer as profitable, for me unprofitable.
Buy/sell the dips seems to work pretty well.
Short a few things.....


----------



## KaeJS

Looks to me like the markets didn't like the Greek deal. 

Asian markets are red. NA futures are slowly declining.


----------



## ddkay

What deal? I'm out of the loop this weekend


----------



## KaeJS

Second Bailout, $130B EUR


----------



## ddkay

I gotta question why they continue to cite no specific sources and do not write more elaborately about what went down with the private sector lenders other than "they will" (be forced?) take a haircut. Did they decide to use CACs?


----------



## KaeJS

Sorry, what is a CAC?

Collective Action Clause?


----------



## KaeJS

Market likes the deal now. 

NA futures jumped.

Asian futures are up.


----------



## ddkay

An example of better journalism:



> BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)-- Greece expects to complete its massive debt restructuring by April, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said early Tuesday, following marathon negotiations to complete deal on a second EUR130 billion aid package.
> 
> Papademos said it is vital that both his government, and the one that succeeds it after elections in April, stick to the terms of a deal hammered out over 12 hours of talks with the euro zone, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and Greece's private creditors.
> 
> *It is uncertain how many of the private debt holders will support the deal*, which forces them to accept bigger losses on their holdings than those originally agreed last year.
> 
> *The deal is designed to cut the existing stock of Greek debt by EUR107 billion, but that will depend on a very high level of acceptance from private bondholders.*
> 
> *If the deal is not taken up by enough investors, the Greek government may enact a new law that would retroactively apply "Collective Action Clauses" to the bonds, allowing it to force through the debt restructuring.*
> 
> *That would have the effect of turning what is supposed to be a voluntary debt restructuring into a coercive one, leading ratings agencies to declare the government in default and triggering credit default swap contracts. However, the risk of that default turning disorderly has been reduced by a separate deal between Greece and the European Central Bank, and by the fact that Greek banks that are currently borrowing from the ECB against Greek collateral will receive new, non-defaulted bonds to replace them in the course of the debt swap.*
> 
> Separately, Papademos said that the revised bailout plan foresees that Greece will return to a primary budget surplus, that is, before debt servicing costs, in 2013. It expects Greece to be able to return to the capital markets in 2015.
> 
> -By Costas Paris and Geoffrey T. Smith, Dow Jones Newswires +44 758 427 1612; [email protected]
> 
> (END) Dow Jones Newswires
> 02-21-12 0109ET
> Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


In other words, nothing has really changed from yesterday. Greece just nodded their head to further austerity and thinks they can get through the rest of this year with -1% GDP.


----------



## Miser

Anybody think after the initial rise, it is time to short the Euro?


----------



## KaeJS

Here we go.

Time for the market to erase all of today's gains.


----------



## Belguy

The Greek people may not be prepared to accept what the Greek government has approved. Watch for more blood in the streets!!


----------



## ddkay

According to a DJ translator the retroactive CAC bill says the majority required to change bond terms is set at 2/3 of represented bond holders. So 66% of bond holders have to be physically present at Parliament in Athens.

If you can read Greek: http://www.hellenicparliament.gr/No...a?law_id=3b426740-db7b-471a-9829-80a89a6518b5

However, the bill is not the final version. The vote is scheduled Thursday. The bill and the vote date are subject to change.


----------



## Argonaut

The question is, ddkay, are you still holding onto your 1 share of Rogers?


----------



## ddkay

Yes, it's a voting class share, waiting to use it at next years AGM to see what they talk about. I also still have 1oz of gold. Not planning to sell either, they're collector's items.


----------



## larry81

larry81 said:


> So speaking of market timing, anyone following the natural gaz market ?
> 
> http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:GAZ
> 
> Look the 1y, 2y,3y chart...
> 
> I am very tempted to take a position but dont want to be too deep into energy


Hate to quote myself but +18.64% today...

let's talk about market timing !


----------



## Belguy

OK! Trying to time the markets is a mug's game over the longer term.


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> OK! Trying to time the markets is a mug's game over the longer term.


you keep repeating well know passive investors facts... but when the market experience a ~20% drop, you are panicking like its the end of the world and post emotional non-sense all over the place.

I see that you have lowered your AA to 50/50 equities/bonds... do you think you will be able to sleep next time the market plunge ?

ps: make no mistake, i am a long term passive investors myself


----------



## Belguy

While I have never lost a minute of sleep during market plunges, or ever sold anything out of panic, I do have to admit that I do feel more optimistic when the markets are on the rise and so it does affect my psyche. Also, when you have a long time horizon, you don't need to concern yourself with sudden drops in the market. In fact, you can consider them buying opportunities. However, I am finding, in my old age, that I am developing less of a tolerance for such drops and that is the main reason why I am adjusting my target asset allocation. Even then, I still have a relatively risky portfolio for a 69 year old with 50 per cent equities which might more appropriately be 30 per cent equities but I have a plan in place to adjust that going forward.

I do feel better now, with a 50/50 equity to cash and fixed income portfolio, than I did before with a 60 per cent equity exposure.

Now, if Israel bombs Iran, I will have a bit more of a cushion against the sudden drop in equities.


----------



## zylon

*don't read this book*

If someone hands you a copy of "_Beating the Street_" by Peter Lynch, dispose of it immediately. You will find you've made more mistakes than you ever dreamed possible.


----------



## larry81

zylon said:


> If someone hands you a copy of "_Beating the Street_" by Peter Lynch, dispose of it immediately. You will find you've made more mistakes than you ever dreamed possible.


Just look at the frigging cover !


----------



## Jungle

Any reason why ? I thought he was pretty good at Fedelity.

I read his book, One Up On Wall Street. He has a 15 + year run of beating the markets and a lot of 10 bangers.


----------



## jcgd

Seemed like a lot of common sense to me. He just over simplified it a bit. Do your due diligence and look everywhere for ideas. The due diligence is the tricky part.


----------



## gibor365

larry81 said:


> I see that you have lowered your AA to 50/50 equities/bonds... do you think you will be able to sleep next time the market plunge ?


and I think "no easy sleep" when market run up 20% in week or two


----------



## doctrine

I like Peter Lynch. While a simple approach, he also is very clear that he advocates about researching financial reports yourself, as well as pointing out warning signs of bad companies and encouraging signs of good companies.


----------



## Causalien

What is the stats? 99% of the investors don't read the quarterly and annual reports?

Once you read them, you'll have a better grasp of how much bullshit the media spew out and the techniques they use to exaggerate numbers to fit their hidden agenda. When this discrepancy is found, you get an edge.


----------



## gibor365

Causalien said:


> What is the stats? 99% of the investors don't read the quarterly and annual reports?


Causalien, do you believe that all that reflects in reports are truth? I think you can very well to play with the numbers... but "dividends don't lie" (C)


----------



## Causalien

The "Highlights" of the financial report release is manipulated. 

However, all that you need to know about a company's shady dealings can be extracted from an official report. If there's an accounting gimmick used, the hidden amount should appear somewhere else on the balance sheet. You just need to watch for it. I get my education from reading failing company's earnings before they declare bankruptcy. I think it's a crime that most of the information of failed companies are removed from easily searchable databases... to keep us gullible on how they hide the bad stuff I guess.

Reading just 1 report is usually not enough to detect anomalies. You will need to track it over time.


----------



## Four Pillars

gibor said:


> but "dividends don't lie" (C)


Actually, they can lie. See Yellow Pages.


----------



## KaeJS

Looks like it's time for the market to slip.


----------



## Jungle

Kaejs, we're all waiting for BMO to increase that dividend.. have you been working hard to increase company profits?


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> Kaejs, we're all waiting for BMO to increase that dividend.. have you been working hard to increase company profits?


I doubled my productivity target on Monday (Family Day).

Is that good enough? 

My thoughts are that we will have to wait until 2012 Q4 or 2013 Q1 for a dividend increase. Payout Ratio is still too high. 

Wait until they are turning over at least $1B/quarter.

But I'll be getting my nice dividend on February 28.


----------



## Jungle

Yea me too!


----------



## ddkay

Gibor, I take back what I said, this is the worst possible scenario. WTI looks like it might backtest $120 or even $147 the 2008 highs. This sucks. Praying for innocent civilians in Israel & Iran.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Gibor, I take back what I said, this is the worst possible scenario. WTI looks like it might backtest $120 or even $147 the 2008 highs. This sucks. Praying for innocent civilians in Israel & Iran.


Holy s&^%.... you just reminded me that I wanted to buy HOU.... with all problem I have and concentrating on other stocks, completely forgot about my intention 

I'm praying only for Israel... Hell with Iran and their friends


----------



## gibor365

Jungle said:


> Kaejs, we're all waiting for BMO to increase that dividend.. have you been working hard to increase company profits?


If all BMO guys playing stockmarket like KaeJS, I doubt it


----------



## ddkay

Looking back through this thread I found this post I made on October 6th to show what the Christmas rally might look like into January: http://i.imgur.com/XkQNA.png

VIX is currently at $17 and the S&P500 is at 1360 so the unbelievable happened & we've followed the last trajectory to a tee.

Policy moves drove the same reaction last year but this time it's obviously stronger. In 2011 we had a 170 pt uptick from the bottom, now we have 302 pts and counting.

February 29ths you guys. I hope you're all counting down to that next injection up to 1 trillion Euros!


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> February 29ths you guys. I hope you're all counting down to that next injection up to 1 trillion Euros!


Are you ready for this day?! Buying something long?
Who in your opinion gonna benefit most of it? Financials?


----------



## ddkay

I think energy and energy utilities companies will continue to lead. With business media publishing statements like "nobody really cares about gas prices" I am becoming more comfortable with the idea of arbitrarily adding a hundred dollars or a few to oil. People will just adjust their savings patterns to compensate like they always do.

http://www.businessinsider.com/proof-the-gas-price-surge-is-mostly-media-manufactured-hype-2012-2


----------



## KaeJS

Am I the only one that thinks tomorrow is going to be a down day?


----------



## Belguy

We've had a good run but we're (over)due for a correction of about 5 per cent (my guess).

Buy when it snows but sell when it goes!!!

Remember the Japanese experience?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...lowdown-in-growth-and-profits/article2350425/


----------



## Jungle

KaeJS said:


> Am I the only one that thinks tomorrow is going to be a down day?


I just hope it holds for net worth update on Thursday


----------



## KaeJS

I hope it holds until 9:45am.

I need to sell 500 shares of BCE ASAP tomorrow morning.

Would really like it if BCE could just go up maybe 3 cents tomorrow and I'd get out at $40.10


----------



## Jungle

Set a limit order. Ps bmo starts reporting Tuesday. I hope they miss so I can buy more stock and start a drip.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> Set a limit order. Ps bmo starts reporting Tuesday. I hope they miss so I can buy more stock and start a drip.


It's hard for me to set a limit order because I'm not sure what to set it at. I'm pretty desperate to sell, so I don't want to set my limit too high and have it not get filled. I will probably watch the Bid/Ask at 9:29 to see where I should place my limit, then I will set limit right before 9:30.

I'd be content getting out at or above $40.10.

As for BMO, I have no comment  It makes up 14.75% of my portfolio, so if they beat estimates, my net worth will increase. If they miss, then it's a better opportunity for my regular buy-ins.


----------



## Eder

KaeJS said:


> I hope it holds until 9:45am.
> 
> I need to sell 500 shares of BCE ASAP tomorrow morning.
> 
> Would really like it if BCE could just go up maybe 3 cents tomorrow and I'd get out at $40.10


If its a down day for the TSX most likely BCE will be up 50cents or so....that's how defensive stocks roll.


----------



## gibor365

Markets can start in red, but than rebound and finish in green  This year such scenario is pretty common


----------



## doctrine

BCE can only go higher eventually. They're gushing cash and something will spark their price up with their very reasonable 5.4% yield, whether its the next dividend raise, the next buyback, the next wireless auction, etc etc.


----------



## gibor365

Interesting article with pics  "How Israel might strike at Iran" 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17115643
Potentially it can largly affect stockmarkets... interstingly how 

In the article and (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-28) I liked description of Guided Bomb Unit 28 (GBU-28). With potential strike on Iran and kinda agressive US politics, I was wondering if it's a good time to invest into GBU designer (Texas Instruments) and its manufacturer Raytheon


----------



## Belguy

I would hold off investing in the Iranian nuclear program until things sort themselves out.


----------



## Jungle

K thanks. What should I do with all that uranium I'm holding for them in my condo? 

Why is everything turning green? I feel pins and needles. 

One more day until net worth update. Let's hope the markets hold. The Cdn dollar was up quite a bit today, not good for funds based on US Currency.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> The Cdn dollar was up quite a bit today, not good for funds based on US Currency.


Don't remind me.

I need to get rid of $7k USD.


----------



## ddkay

No you don't, just buy Apple.


----------



## Jungle

lol. What the hell happend to the markets today? I turned off BNN at 10am everything was green.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Bernanke spoke!


----------



## Jungle

Amazing how that guy spooks investors. He always looks nervous and unsure of himself.


----------



## ddkay

ECB didn't give us enough free money. Everyone was expecting EUR1 trillion or more. What the heck!



> The ECB's second LTRO is not considered to be a "game changer," HSBC says, after the three-year liquidity injection comes in at EUR529.53 billion.
> 
> "It wasn't large enough for a game changer. A result north of 700bn would have provided a much more positive reaction," notes Daragh Maher, FX strategist at HSBC.


----------



## dogcom

The market especially the S&P is very overbought right now and it is that simple. If the market wasn't so overbought we probably would have had nice gains today. When you look around there isn't a lot of great buys out there right now so there isn't a lot of money that is desperate to buy right now.


----------



## Eder

How can anyone decide something is overbought? Banks Pe ratios are historically low...same with many other quality stocks...who decides that today we are overbought but at TSX 14000 and higher pe's we are not?

Or is the term "overbought" more of a day traders view?


----------



## gibor365

Eder said:


> How can anyone decide something is overbought? Banks Pe ratios are historically low...same with many other quality stocks...who decides that today we are overbought but at TSX 14000 and higher pe's we are not?
> 
> Or is the term "overbought" more of a day traders view?



I also always wondering when hear "overbought".... YSX is down about 10% comparing to 1 years ago (even though we had economical growth, although modest).  Even RSI (10) is at 42....

Also I don't understand why CAD$ is sharply up, when oil and gold are sharply down?


----------



## dogcom

Eder yes the talk was of a short term nature today and yes the market is overbought short term in response to this. So the impact or rally of good news on the day is harder to achieve in short term overbought conditions.


----------



## dogcom

There you go we had overbought in the short term and some steam got let out just as I said.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

dogcom said:


> There you go we had overbought in the short term and some steam got let out just as I said.


it seems interesting how this ponzi scheme of the stock mkt is moving along.
hope this time a mod lets me post.
dunno why it does not show my posts.
like i said before it seems to be a nice board.


----------



## ddkay

Belguy it's safe to come out from under your bed now. Greece defaulted this morning and the world didn't end.


----------



## Belguy

The European crisis is far from over. It will last for years!!! I'm staying under the bed!!!


----------



## gibor365

seekingalpha.com news:


> Friday, March 9, 2:51 PM The ISDA has, in fact, determined a "credit event has occurred with respect to Greece," and schedules an auction date of March 19 for the defaulted bonds to set the CDS payout price


Could anyone explain me in simple English what this mean?

It sounds like not too good news, but markets had just a very minot pullback about 0.2% and even came back a liitle bit later and AH VTI and XIV are slightly up....


----------



## moneyisfornothing

gibor said:


> seekingalpha.com news:
> 
> 
> Could anyone explain me in simple English what this mean?


read here

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-cds-trigger-decision-unanimous


----------



## Causalien

The EU Spend a lot of time making sure that the CAC (collective action clause) will not trigger a credit event. In which CDS sellers will have to payout a substantial amount of money.

Bond holders buy CDS to protect against the event of default.

EU banks were selling CDS against themselves because, they don't care what happens after they go belly up.

This, triggers CDS default event. Meaning a payout is necessary, hence the stock market dropoff after a good start.


----------



## Argonaut

Looks like Greek default was relatively orderly and anti-climatic after the endless build up. Probably problems for years in the European economy, but worst case Ontario averted.


----------



## ddkay

In a matter of days we went from 60% voluntary participation, to 70%, 75%, 85%, then 95.4% (CACs became activated). You got to hand it to them, not only did policy makers stop the spread of contagion, the market closed green on the first first formal sovereign default in 60 years! CDS should pay out on March 19.

It was all priced in I guess...

Like I said, Belguy, you can come out from under your bed. Politicians and central bankers got your back, anyone can be a stock market genius and you never have to sell again.


----------



## Eder

ddkay said:


> You got to hand it to them, not only did policy makers stop the spread of contagion, the market closed green on the first first formal sovereign default in 60 years!




Maybe I'm delusional but there must have been at least 60 sovereign defaults in the last 60 years?


----------



## ddkay

Sorry, this was the first _developed_ country default in 60 years.


----------



## Belguy

So, which is it? Has the European debt crisis been resolved or is it going to be hanging over our heads for years to come with potential to play havoc with the markets?


----------



## Cal

It basically means Greece won't default this month. Doesn't mean it won't happen in the future though.


----------



## Causalien

For savvy people. It means don't touch these EU bonds until Merkel manages to establish a Euro wide bond program. Unfortunately, the sheeple who are invested in these bonds through pension, mutual and some other government managed funds will still be forced to invest. Not like I can tell the Canadian pension fund to stop doing it. So the yields will not increase too much on the rest and the ponzi goes ahead. Hedgies are too small to go against the full weight of the EU. It might have worked if it's just one single country by itself like Soros vs England. Not anymore. And this is where the merit of a union really shines through, when they are committed to protect its members like this.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

ddkay said:


> Sorry, this was the first _developed_ country default in 60 years.


we won't know the rippling effects of the CDS after greece's default.
Greece defaulted .
the other PIIGS , first being portugal will be another test for the CDS , once , for the first time in history the ISDA triggered the clause of CDS payouts.
whoever holds those CDS will have to pay .
all the talk about not letting the CDS be triggered did not take place.
it triggered it.
so, what we can expect is other countries to do the same IMHO.
now that will have an impact providing it does happen.
yet to be seen.


----------



## ddkay

You mean PIIS, the 'G' is gone now 

Central banks and policy makers have made sure that particular insolvent institutions were not required to settle on contract obligations, so those insolvent institutions sold (now worthless) premium as aggressively as possible to bolster there books. The problem is the people on the receiving end of those contracts have now completely lost trust in their counterparties. It looks good for now, but what happens when they need to enter future trades?

The markets in order by size are 1) derivatives 2) currency 3) debt 4) equity

Derivatives are bigger than all other markets combined

What kind of knock-on effects will people losing trust in the contract markets have? That's the multi hundred trillion dollar question..

Look at this guy who chose not to use the derivatives market to hedge his bond portfolio because they could no longer be trusted and instead shorted equity assets: http://bloom.bg/yaY4la#ooid=x2dTFwMzprTEg_ys1eSuLyMOkozqDFwy

In my opinion this story isn't over and the effects are something we'll be living with for decades..


----------



## moneyisfornothing

ddkay said:


> You mean PIIS, the 'G' is gone now
> 
> Central banks and policy makers have made sure that particular insolvent institutions were not required to settle on contract obligations, so those insolvent institutions sold (now worthless) premium as aggressively as possible to bolster there books. The problem is the people on the receiving end of those contracts have now completely lost trust in their counterparties. It looks good for now, but what happens when they need to enter future trades?
> 
> The markets in order by size are 1) derivatives 2) currency 3) debt 4) equity
> 
> Derivatives are bigger than all other markets combined
> 
> What kind of knock-on effects will people losing trust in the contract markets have? That's the multi hundred trillion dollar question..
> 
> Look at this guy who chose not to use the derivatives market to hedge his bond portfolio because they could no longer be trusted and instead shorted equity assets: http://bloom.bg/yaY4la#ooid=x2dTFwMzprTEg_ys1eSuLyMOkozqDFwy
> 
> In my opinion this story isn't over and the effects are something we'll be living with for decades..



thks for the rectification on PIIGS 
it sure needs a new name now.
we definitely are in uncharted territories .
lack of volume in the mkts , without retail participation for one.
we see a major institutional revolving liquidity in equities , specially in the U.S. 
as a matter of fact I have not witnessed such low volume in the longest time.
your observations above are precise as for mkt depth also.
the other trillion dollar question is what happens now that financial institutions gobbled up all ECB funds , which in reality is free money in this latest round of liquidity boost.
lets see what happens in the next little while.
I am shorting the Euro atm.
it is a lifeless currency imo.
cheers


----------



## ddkay

New record set 03/12/12


----------



## londoncalling

Is that an indicator to buy or sell? I still prefer the belguy bed indicator for it's better history and easier to follow.


----------



## ddkay

It's 2/2 so far for short term sell. I'm not using it yet but it's fun to watch lol. Why did the forum explode with activity today? The number is actually much higher now: "Most users ever online was 881, Today at 03:22 PM."

Maybe it has something to do with the forum software upgrade/crawlers re-indexing? Dunno..

The market itself today was very thin on volume.


----------



## bayview

Record users...hmmm. Maybe it is the tax season!


----------



## Belguy

This market is in for one doozy of a correction which is now overdue. Even from under the bed, I have that much visibility. All that we are waiting for now is a trigger.


----------



## Causalien

ddkay said:


> It's 2/2 so far for short term sell. I'm not using it yet but it's fun to watch lol. Why did the forum explode with activity today? The number is actually much higher now: "Most users ever online was 881, Today at 03:22 PM."
> 
> Maybe it has something to do with the forum software upgrade/crawlers re-indexing? Dunno..
> 
> The market itself today was very thin on volume.


I guess only the admin would know through which keyword the sudden influx arrived at.
I'd say it's a gauge of retail investor interest. Something triggered an interest in investing. Greek bailout?
If this is true, then the Market Makers certainly saw it and will use it as an opportunity to offload.
If the rumours were true and that there's been little to no retail participation since 2008 (MF fund flow negative), then a reduction in S&P volume means a slow down in the big players. 
Some things that must be happening. 1: Volume dying due to higher per unit cost of stock. 2. Liquidity locking up. 3: Ramping up sales pitch to retail.
The influx of readers means #3 is definitely happening


----------



## moneyisfornothing

londoncalling said:


> Is that an indicator to buy or sell? I still prefer the belguy bed indicator for it's better history and easier to follow.


i sure as hell sold some stuff at the " possible " peak.
this mkt is running on crack IMO.
the numbers from China were not horrible .
i cannot find the proper word for it.

just to enlighten the board readers here is our glorious NYSE volume chart.
courtesy of zerohedge/bloomberg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/03/20120312_volume.png


----------



## KaeJS

Asian markets are up about 1% each.

DJIA futures up 59pts.

Let's hope this carries over to tomorrow.


----------



## donald

Jpm boosting dividend and doing a large buyback,that has to be a good sign for the overall economy?read alot of money is comming out of the 10 yr tresuries,job improvement,home builder stocks up along with high beta ie casinos ect*light volume equals only smart money right now pushing everything up...waiting for the retailers to jump in?Is the trian still going to move or is there a huge pull back comming?almost like this is legit....vix is getting back to normal...what happens next!


----------



## gibor365

From TDW


> JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) today announced the following actions taken by its Board of Directors:
> 
> -- Declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share on the corporation's common stock, an increase of $0.05 per share. The dividend is payable on April 30, 2012 to stockholders of record at the close of business on April 5, 2012
> 
> -- Authorized a new $15 billion equity repurchase program, of which up to $12 billion is approved for 2012 and up to an additional $3 billion is approved through the end of the first quarter of 2013
> 
> Remarking on the dividend action and repurchase authorization, Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, said, "We are pleased to be in a position to increase our dividend and to establish a new equity repurchase program. We expect to generate significant capital and deploy that capital to the benefit of our shareholders. JPMorgan Chase continues to invest in our substantial organic growth opportunities as our top priority and best use of capital. We expect to repurchase, at a minimum, approximately the same amount of shares that we issue for employee stock-based incentive awards. Beyond this, we intend to repurchase equity only when we are generating capital in excess of what we need to fund our organic growth and when we think it provides excellent value to our existing shareholders."


While was copying JPM news were already published.  
Still JPM has a long way to go to 52 weeks high 47.80


----------



## ddkay

lol and just like that, +11% YTD. VIX at 4 year lows. Stocks must be catching up to Canadian real estate where nobody can call tops anymore. I guess if tomorrow holds I will place my new target at 1430, and 1550 from there.

Not bothering with any individual stocks except AAPL, that should be at 650 within a few weeks with the current trend.


----------



## Causalien

I wish I'd done my whole banking sector buy at 10x leverage instead of mostly at 3x.


----------



## ddkay

AAPL $575 in pre-market.. might get to 650 sooner than I thought


----------



## KaeJS

What's the market doing right now? It seems so quiet and stocks seem to be so flat.

Does anyone think we're headed higher? Anyone seeing TSX at 12600+?


----------



## ddkay

Does anyone know if its allowed to short to hedge longs or naked short inside a TFSA?


----------



## Argonaut

Not allowed. The only sell to open you're allowed is a covered call.


----------



## ddkay

What about for hedging direct equity purchases? (wouldn't be using options in this example)


----------



## ddkay

Maybe my last posts confused people.. so from Argo I gather selling uncovered options is not allowed. does CRA allow to short sell stock against existing positions inside the TFSA? This is a covered position, just want to add some protection from downside


----------



## avrex

Short selling is not permitted in registered accounts (RRSP/TFSA). You can only do this in a margin account.


----------



## Argonaut

What are you trying to do, short the box? Doesn't make any sense as there are no tax implications. If you want to short the box, just sell the stock instead. Now you're really hedged for downside.


----------



## humble_pie

i am positive no shorting would be allowed.

ask at your broker if they permit purchase of puts within registered accounts. These can offer downside protection.

according to lephturn, he was never allowed to buy puts in reg'd at roybank. However i believe tdw may allow this practice for stock puts, although not for index puts.

there is one very slight risk with long puts in reg'd accounts, which is probably the reason why other brokers won't allow put purchases.

ideally what one would want to do, if one were sure of a looming downturn, is a collar.


----------



## ddkay

It's like short the box but instead of a perfectly equal hedge the position is say 80% long 20% short. I don't think TDW allows purchasing options inside non-margin accounts (which the TFSA is), and also the stock is not optionable.

As for selling the stock completely, I don't want to do that because I may get the timing wrong, by short selling it I can let gains run rampant with just a little drag on performance, and add more to the short side as things really look to take a turn. 

I may have to look at unrelated securities that have loose inverse correlation... but those can end up in a situation where hedges don't hedge


----------



## humble_pie

yes, as i mentioned td does allow purchase of options in reg'd accounts. Not all brokers do.

would i do it ? certainly not. If this is a tfsa account the position is unlikely to be humungously large. If it's a non-optioned stock then a correlation has to be found ... hmmmn ... for a small account things are getting way too complicated ... why not just sell the stock. If you're sure about the downturn.


----------



## gibor365

From Bloomberg


> The Bank of Israel will begin today a pilot program to invest a portion of its foreign currency reserves in U.S. equities.
> 
> The investment, which in the initial phase will amount to 2 percent of the $77 billion reserves, or about $1.5 billion, will be made through UBS AG and BlackRock Inc. (BLK), Bank of Israel spokesman Yossi Saadon said in a telephone interview today. At a later stage, the investment is expected to increase to 10 percent of the reserves.
> 
> A small number of central banks have started investing part of their reserves in equities. About 9 percent of the foreign- exchange reserves of Switzerland’s central bank were invested in shares at the end of the third quarter, the Swiss bank said on its website.
> 
> The investment will be made in equity index trackers and will include between 1,500 to 2,000 shares, among them stocks like Apple Inc. (AAPL), Saadon said.
> 
> The central bank decided to add equities to its investment portfolio in order to diversify, reduce risk and give better performance, Barry Topf, senior adviser to Governor Stanley Fischer, said in a Dec. 1 interview.


Does it mean that shares of AAPL becomes some kind of currency?! 

I'd like to know what other stocks except AAPL on this list?


----------



## Dibs

For some perspective, several countries operate sovereign wealth funds, with China controlling around 827 billion and the UAE with 709 billion in assets.


----------



## gibor365

What happened to Canadian REIT today?! XRE and ZRE tanked by more 2% each...


----------



## ddkay

blue chip tech stocks this morning from open till now went literally straight up. impossible to short for more than a few minutes. weekly put options lost 50% in 25 minutes... dip buyers winning again


----------



## ddkay

So far this year, SPX has only been down 4 days in a row once. This is day 4. Tech (NQ) still strong as ever, this needs to fail for the market to see a return of gravity...


----------



## Spudd

SPX is up now.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

ddkay said:


> So far this year, SPX has only been down 4 days in a row once. This is day 4. Tech (NQ) still strong as ever, this needs to fail for the market to see a return of gravity...


i really like this graph.
any thoughts?

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CESIUSD:IND/chart


----------



## webber22

I'm waiting for Belguy to give us his ytd returns which should be good. Then it'll be time to slowly sell out .... 
They'll have to be a remap of the indicators since the new ones don't quite cut it )    ) 

After that, I'll wait for this one before I buy anything again.


----------



## ddkay

heh funny graphic, but it wasn't so simple. Lots of hands were held together for this one. The last should be labelled Op Twist + Eurodollar swap + ECB's LTROx2


----------



## ddkay

Econ data rolling over:
- U.K. manufacturing output falls at its sharpest annual rate in more than two years in February. M/M: -1.0% V 0.1%E
- German industrial output down -1.3% M/M in Feb. Consensus was for -0.5%. Prior revised from +1.6% to +1.2%

- Spain:Germany spread > 400bp for the first time since December

There are worries that the Greek elections will result in the extreme parties winning most seats in the Greek Parliament, and that further austerity measures, or even complying with existing ones will become impossible.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

ddkay said:


> heh funny graphic, but it wasn't so simple. Lots of hands were held together for this one. The last should be labelled Op Twist + Eurodollar swap + ECB's LTROx2


thks for posting.
the mkt addiction to free money shows why stocks rally and fall.
it looks clear as crystal .
3hen op twist ends?June ?
going back to today's action and non farm tomorrow with mkts closed it sure will be interesting to see what monday holds.
cheers.


----------



## ddkay

Op Twist ends in June and afaik no other US easing programs have yet been announced to follow. I would love to see some downside momentum, the 7 month uptrend on SPX is clearly broken now for all wave surfers out there "trend is your friend till it ends", but it will probably take some bad US data to shake the tree.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

ddkay said:


> Op Twist ends in June and afaik no other US easing programs have yet been announced to follow. I would love to see some downside momentum, the 7 month uptrend on SPX is clearly broken now for all wave surfers out there "trend is your friend till it ends", but it will probably take some bad US data to shake the tree.


fully agree with ur statement above.
as for commodities like gold and silver a further retracement to previous solid supports at 1540 area and 26 bux cannot be discarded.
Bernanke rhetoric may change after this sharp fall in the mkts , unless employment stays where it is at.
mind u that in the 08 crash unemployment rate was lower than today's rates.
i also see a much stronger dollar although i think it was oversold.
if it starts bumping at 81 and does not go higher , commodities may take a breather.
cheers.


----------



## ddkay

ddkay said:


> it will probably take some bad US data to shake the tree.


Boom: US MARCH NON-FARM PAYROLLS MISSES 40%: +120k, CONSENSUS +203k

"For Nomura, the most troubling part of today's NFP report is the 34K decline seen in retail jobs, which follows February's 29K decline. The firm doesn't think the losses, which contrast sharply with March's healthy same-store sales data, can be explained by weather, and thinks they make April 16's retail sales report especially important."


----------



## ddkay

Gold is "supposed" to perform best in a negative US real interest rates environment. Right now we have had consecutive upticks in US real interest rates. The Fed is still promising to keep short term rates near zero until 2014, so maybe PMs will move sideways. However when we get positive US real rates PMs should reverse down. Gold under 1532 (20% correction from peak) IMO would signal a bear market.


----------



## Belguy

Realizing that many forum members enjoy my links, here is another one for your pleasure and enjoyment:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120406-703231.html

Woops, it looks like you may have to pay for this one!!!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Question for the mkt investors here.
who thinks we will revisit 1060/1100 levels on spx by end of august or earlier.
just curious here.


----------



## KaeJS

I think that's a bit steep.

I don't think it will drop below 1100.

But what do I know? :rolleyes2:


----------



## moneyisfornothing

KaeJS said:


> I think that's a bit steep.
> 
> I don't think it will drop below 1100.
> 
> But what do I know? :rolleyes2:



fair enough.
the mkts are irrational and are always ahead of us retail investors right?
Presidential election, high unemployment, stagflation.
i guess we shall all see.
maybe tomorrow instead of tanking, the mkt will actually go on positive territory:rolleyes2:
trade safely:encouragement:


----------



## KaeJS

moneyisfornothing said:


> maybe tomorrow instead of tanking, the mkt will actually go on positive territory:rolleyes2:


Yeah. I wish! :rolleyes2:

I've already prepared myself mentally for the 1% loss that is going to occur in my portfolio tomorrow lol

I just don't think the market will drop as crazily as it did in 2011. People were all stressed because we had the japan earthquakes, the euro zone blowing up, the US Debt ceiling, high oil prices, yadda yadda. Granted, we still have some of that today, but I think we are in for a more "stable" and less "volatile" year.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

KaeJS said:


> Yeah. I wish! :rolleyes2:
> 
> I've already prepared myself mentally for the 1% loss that is going to occur in my portfolio tomorrow lol
> 
> I just don't think the market will drop as crazily as it did in 2011. People were all stressed because we had the japan earthquakes, the euro zone blowing up, the US Debt ceiling, high oil prices, yadda yadda. Granted, we still have some of that today, but I think we are in for a more "stable" and less "volatile" year.


except for the earthquakes Kaejs , nothing changed .
volume has hit abysmal low volumes lately.
what changed is the exuberant liquidity injection that this market has seen in the first quarter.
the Eurozone blowup is a long story. 
after all, 1 trillion dollars in liquidity can calm the mkts, but unemployment is climbing in leaps in Europe.
Op twist ends in June.
If the Fed does not hint QE3 again and actually does it things can get ugly one more time.
the same way i was impressed by this exuberant rally on all indexes , try and find out what percentage of the trading companies are actually keeping this rally alive.
I know this can be hard work for ya but well worth it.
trade wisely.


----------



## Belguy

Most predict low returns for the indexes in the years ahead. One defensive move, which you can take, is to keep your fees as small as possible as it might mean the difference between coming out ahead or losing over the long term.


----------



## Argonaut

Looks like a slaughterhouse tomorrow. Can't wait. CAT at $75 by September please.


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> Looks like a slaughterhouse tomorrow. Can't wait. CAT at $75 by September please.


Yessir, it does!

And what a fool I was for not buying CAT at $80 around October last year. I debated buying it so many times and never did. Whoops!


----------



## Belguy

Sell in May and go away. Er, maybe make that in April this year!!


----------



## kcowan

Looks like the forecasters are pessimistic on earnings growth, or look out below!


----------



## Argonaut

Gold has dropped its correlation with the market and started to act properly. Gold up and market down are usually the happiest days for me. Wish I was playing the SPY put game at the start of the month, but perhaps I'll play it different this time and just build up my cash. Patience.


----------



## Cal

Have been waiting for some of these prices to buy, but the market seems disinterested.

Waiting for Belguy to proclaim the sky is falling to start the buying spree again. :encouragement:


----------



## blin10

wow, huge damage to the markets today, huge


----------



## KaeJS

Biggest drop on the DOW in 2012.

I got slaughtered today.


----------



## Jungle

As long as this keeps going, I wouldn't mind adding some deals! 
Upping DCA in RSP, starting DCA in TFSA, and watching some stocks!


----------



## Causalien

LOL. suspiscious drop too. All before the beginning of the earnings release aka AA


----------



## KaeJS

Causalien said:


> LOL. suspiscious drop too. All before the beginning of the earnings release aka AA


It's so all the smart money can get in before the corporate earnings blowouts and the good China numbers. :biggrin:


----------



## Belguy

The sky is falling! The sky IS falling!! The TSX has gained a net nothing so far this year and the S&P is down 4 percent over the past five trading days. Of course, there are those contrarians out there who consider this the potential start of a great buying opportunity. To everything, there is a silver lining. 

As usual, I will be buying nothing nor selling anything and will remain fully invested no matter what happens. Of course, I did recently decrease the equity allocation in my overall portfolio to 50 per cent from the previous 60 per cent, mainly because of my advancing age.


----------



## doctrine

Love the pessimists who keep values at great prices. There were some fantastic drops in a lot of companies, including real estate. Need a few more drops then I'll be all over them.


----------



## JustAGuy

whee
Feels like I got into stocks at just the wrong time :stupid:


----------



## Cal

^ If you just got in, you got in at the right time.

A few 52 week lows being made.


----------



## doctrine

In a few years, you'll be looking back with the TSX at 15-16k and wishing you bought more while it was under 12k. Of course, it could easily drop to 11k, but no one knows if it will.


----------



## KaeJS

JustAGuy said:


> whee
> Feels like I got into stocks at just the wrong time :stupid:


Looks like you sold some stocks at the right time, too. :wink:

*BNNY was down 4% today!! *Did you notice?
POST was down 2.33%.
SBUX was down 1.11%.

Good sell! :cool2:


----------



## JustAGuy

Yes, but I'm down 20% today on GFS and I had significantly more invested with them 

And no Cal, I got in just before the big drops started... so now my funds are tied up waiting for things to climb back up instead of being able to take advantage of the low prices now.


----------



## blin10

I learned this the hard way before, don't buy garbage small companies because if markets sink they are the first to go down hard



JustAGuy said:


> Yes, but I'm down 20% today on GFS and I had significantly more invested with them


----------



## JustAGuy

I'm learning more each day 

I would have been fine if I'd been playing more aggressively a couple weeks ago. I had $200 profit with GFS in the first couple days I invested, but I let it sit and it slowly came down, and then it toppled over. I like to think they'll come back up soon enough... but if not, it's money I can afford to be without long term. Just a pain in the *** to have my TFSA drop.


----------



## KaeJS

blin10 said:


> I learned this the hard way before, don't buy garbage small companies because if markets sink they are the first to go down hard


They usually come back in a big way, also.

Small caps are very prone to "Risk off" and "Risk on" conditions. Right now, we are in a "Risk off" market and GFS just posted this:

_CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - April 9, 2012) - GASFRAC Energy Services Inc. (TSX:GFS) ("GASFRAC") announced today that revenues and profit before income taxes for the first quarter of 2012 are expected to be lower than for the fourth quarter of 2011._

Which means.... you're going to be screwed for a while on this stock, unfortunately.

The question is:

Did you _know_ this was the reason why GFS got killed today?


----------



## JustAGuy

Yup, I know. I've been following them. I've got faith in the company having a solid line of business and being up before the year is over. It's just a shame that my money is kind of locked in now instead of being able to play with day trading.


----------



## KaeJS

JustAGuy said:


> Yup, I know. I've been following them. I've got faith in the company having a solid line of business and being up before the year is over. It's just a shame that my money is kind of locked in now instead of being able to play with day trading.


Well, as long as you know!

And I know the "locked up" feeling. :wink:


----------



## Jungle

Cross your fingers these stocks crash, I would like to buy:

KO
CL
MCD
PM
SBUX
APPL?
VWO


----------



## Argonaut

Mega Man, might I suggest to keep the learning experience outside of the TFSA. Your contribution room is being eaten by commissions and trades that can't be claimed as losses. A basket of low risk, buy and hold Canadian dividend stocks would be nice here. The only problem this has caused me is being down $1/share on Fortis, but that has been made up by their dividends.


----------



## Homerhomer

JustAGuy said:


> Yes, but I'm down 20% today on GFS and I had significantly more invested with them
> 
> And no Cal, I got in just before the big drops started... so now my funds are tied up waiting for things to climb back up instead of being able to take advantage of the low prices now.





JustAGuy said:


> Yup, I know. I've been following them. I've got faith in the company having a solid line of business and being up before the year is over. It's just a shame that my money is kind of locked in now instead of being able to play with day trading.



It is very common, a person comes into the market and wants to hit a homerun to quickly and significantly increase a value of the investments, and to do so he buys shares of small companies which can allow for such returns. 

Unfortunately since the individual doesn't know much or anything about investing the money is quickly lost, the person becomes sour about investing and looses interest all together since it's all sham, in some cases they realize that whatever they are doing is stupid and are able to stop the wreck train before all is lost, they realize they need to learn alot before they can handle their money propertly, and that investing in small risky companies is only for the best, and the average joe will be taken to cleaners.

Which one will you be?


----------



## dave2012

Jungle said:


> Cross your fingers these stocks crash, I would like to buy:
> 
> KO
> CL
> MCD
> PM
> SBUX
> APPL?
> VWO


KO has been on a slide all month. Waiting on SBUX myself.


----------



## humble_pie

homer you are right. The surprising thing is not that the forum has acquired a poster child for how to lose everything as a pokemon trader.

the truly surprising thing is that cmf forum has so many young people still in their 20s who are doing everything magnificently right. Jobs. Savings. Tax-free accounts. Profitable investments. Patience. Discipline. Research. Rewards. These are the kids who are going to make that first $$ million easily.


----------



## gibor365

Just returned last night from Cuba and .... WTF... When left week ago early Tue market were in nice uptrend, when I came back majority of my long positions tanked.... :upset:


----------



## mart

humble_pie said:


> the truly surprising thing is that cmf forum has so many young people still in their 20s who are doing everything magnificently right. Jobs. Savings. Tax-free accounts. Profitable investments. Patience. Discipline. Research. Rewards. *These are the kids who are going to make that first $$ million easily.*


Until they have kids and then the plan goes out the window :rolleyes2:


----------



## HaroldCrump

mart said:


> Until they have kids and then the plan goes out the window


What is with all this kids bashing going on CMF for the last few days?
Have kids and your financial plan is ruined.
Have kids and you can't make $1M.
Have kids and you will never be a good stock investor.

We can easily say the same for many other things.
How about buy a mortgage for $640K and your financial plan is ruined.
Buy a mortgage and you will never make $1M.


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> WTF... When left week ago early Tue market were in nice uptrend, when I came back majority of my long positions tanked....


Did you have internet connection?! :stupid: [don't say I didn't warn you]. :biggrin:

You picked a good week to go away IMO; you were having fun while we were rattled here, so what are you complaining about? :grumpy:

Hope you had a good time & welcome back [to reality!]. :wink:

*mart:* you missed hp's point.


----------



## kcowan

humble_pie said:


> These are the kids who are going to make that first $$ million easily.


+1
No question that some kids have their act together. It is encouraging to see. Then there are the basket cases but they seldom show up here.


----------



## mart

HaroldCrump said:


> What is with all this kids bashing going on CMF for the last few days?
> Have kids and your financial plan is ruined.
> Have kids and you can't make $1M.
> Have kids and you will never be a good stock investor.


You have to admit that having two kids seriously puts a dent in the investment plan. Must harder to save as much when you have to pay 1500 / month for daycare or even more if you have two young kids.. 

This is coming from a father of two young kids. Would I do things differently? Hell no. But it definitely slowed down my retirements plan. Save less, need a bigger house, spend more. What's the saying? There are some things on which you can't put a price on.


----------



## JustAGuy

and for the rest there's mastercard?


----------



## mrPPincer

JustAGuy said:


> and for the rest there's mastercard?


How about "Will that be Cash or Chargex?"
http://www.rbc.com/history/quicktofrontier/chargex-visa.html


----------



## KaeJS

JustAGuy said:


> and for the rest there's mastercard?


Lmfao.

The sad part is that in this case - that's the absolute truth.

But hey, you might as well profit from it.


----------



## Jungle

Yea well these stocks never seem to be cheap.


----------



## Belguy

Having kids costs BIG money:

http://financialhighway.com/what-it-really-costs-to-raise-a-child/


----------



## Jon_Snow

D.I.N.K. 4 life! 

Seriously, not having kids was a tough call - my wife and i still have these niggling regrets every now and then. But the fact that I am on track to retire at 43, followed by my wife at 48... let's just say that this does wonders in suppressing these childless pangs.


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> D.I.N.K. 4 life!


Amen to that!

Now, to find a beautiful, smart, 24-year old brunette who thinks the same way.

... Should be a piece of cake! :biggrin:


----------



## Four Pillars

My finances got a lot better after I had kids.

It's been said about 14 million times already, but kids are expensive or cheap as you want them to be.


----------



## Jon_Snow

KaeJS said:


> Amen to that!
> 
> Now, to find a beautiful, smart, 24-year old brunette who thinks the same way.
> 
> ... Should be a piece of cake! :biggrin:


I have no doubts you will find somebody KaeJS... I didn't meet my future wife until my early 30's... less than 10 years of dual-income-powered-frugal living has put us in a very good place. My wife and I are of one mind when it comes to our finances... less so with my desire for an Audi - she crushed that idea pretty fast. Not that I blame her.... sigh. :upset:


----------



## HaroldCrump

mart said:


> You have to admit that having two kids seriously puts a dent in the investment plan. Must harder to save as much when you have to pay 1500 / month for daycare or even more if you have two young kids..
> 
> This is coming from a father of two young kids. Would I do things differently? Hell no. But it definitely slowed down my retirements plan. Save less, need a bigger house, spend more. What's the saying? There are some things on which you can't put a price on.


I have two kids as well.
I have honestly never once felt that it adversely impacted our ability to save and invest.

In fact, the reverse argument can be made.
The fiscal discipline that having kids brings to your life more than offsets any extra expenses.
For example, we don't need premium cable television (enough entertainment around).
Don't care for eating out anymore.
etc.

Within a few years, I plan to retire from the duties of shoveling snow and mowing the lawn too.


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> I have no doubts you will find somebody KaeJS... I didn't meet my future wife until my early 30's... less than 10 years of dual-income-powered-frugal living has put us in a very good place. My wife and I are of one mind when it comes to our finances... less so with my desire for an Audi - she crushed that idea pretty fast. Not that I blame her.... sigh. :upset:


I have no doubts, either. But getting the ball rolling as early as possible is always best.

As for the Audi - I know we've talked about this a lot. I don't understand why you just wouldn't work an extra year or two and retire at 45. That's what I would do. 45 is still young. Imagine all the free time you will have to drive that beast.... :wink:


----------



## mart

Jon_Snow said:


> I have no doubts you will find somebody KaeJS... I didn't meet my future wife until my early 30's... less than 10 years of dual-income-powered-frugal living has put us in a very good place. My wife and I are of one mind when it comes to our finances... less so with my desire for an Audi - she crushed that idea pretty fast. Not that I blame her.... sigh. :upset:


No point in saving all the time and not enjoying life. 

Signed: Father of two, owner of a 2009 A4 with sport pack. yes, it's a blast to drive going to the ski hills with my oldest. I still remember the famous "Daddy, why are we going sideways?"


----------



## KaeJS

mart said:


> I still remember the famous "Daddy, why are we going sideways?"


Awesome. :wink:

:cool2:


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Having kids costs BIG money:
> 
> http://financialhighway.com/what-it-really-costs-to-raise-a-child/


You bet lol
Just in RESP for my 2 kids we have 70K+ .... every year we pay about 10K for my daughter figure skating., do you know how much cost braces?!....the list of spendings are huge...., but kids are great thing in our life.... I just cannot imagine going to vacation just with my wife....
I'm in age KaeJS wants to retire.... I'd like to retire right now too :encouragement: 
The question how much money we need for retirement ??? ... we have kids 10 and 16 , but doesn't have mortgage


----------



## KaeJS

Ugh. 

Flocking China. Look at that garbage. 

Does this mean tomorrow is a down day?


----------



## Causalien

Forecast:
JOBS act passed. Tech bubble prosperity for 5 years.


----------



## KaeJS

Does anyone use futures to predict the next day?

Or do you guys feel like futures are not worth looking at, as they can change too quickly and are all over the place?


----------



## dogcom

The futures don't seem very reliable unless they are going far enough in one direction.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> Did you have internet connection?! :stupid: [don't say I didn't warn you].
> 
> You picked a good week to go away IMO; you were having fun while we were rattled here, so what are you complaining about? :grumpy:
> 
> Hope you had a good time & welcome back [to reality!].
> 
> *mart:* you missed hp's point.


never leave the herd unattended:encouragement:
cheers:chuncky:


----------



## moneyisfornothing

dogcom said:


> The futures don't seem very reliable unless they are going far enough in one direction.


sure thing but it deffinitely is a signal.
yesterday short covering before chinese news .
today we have 3 bellwethers reporting.....lets see what holds and what gives.
its going to get interesting the next 3 months u betcha:encouragement:


----------



## KaeJS

Those China GDP numbers really screwed up my plans. :mad2:


----------



## kcowan

Investing like it is 2007...


----------



## Dibs

http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2012/04/13/why-daily-market-commentary-is-a-joke



> "The S&P 500 added more than 2% during the last two sessions because of an incredibly complex and largely random combination of factors that cannot possibly be distilled into one sentence."


:redface:


----------



## kcowan

> Markets are down because of fear that China's ecomomy is slowing down.


Yeah right. Like that matters to me...


----------



## mrPPincer

KaeJS said:


> Does anyone use futures to predict the next day?


I always check the futures on bloomberg early on a day when I'm planning to rebalance just to see which direction things are moving.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks_v2/futures/
I use that along with globe investor price reports.
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com...909181503260001&pi_currency=&pi_param_1=World
And I use globe's page for currencies to get a more accurate picture.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/v5/content/news/currencies/

Those 3 worked great together for me when all I was rebalancing was td e-funds but now I'm getting into stocks and etfs as well so I expect to be using a live feed for the price on those parts when rebalancing.


----------



## Belguy

That was a nifty roller coaster ride to nowhere that the TSX took this week!! What is this, the seventh down week in a row or something like that!!!


----------



## mrPPincer

Belguy said:


> That was a nifty roller coaster ride to nowhere that the TSX took this week!! What is this, the seventh down week in a row or something like that!!!


The TSX was down yesterday as North Korea tested it's long range missile :cower:


----------



## ddkay

When the market overperforms the Fed takes away the punch bowl. When the market crashes the Fed puts it back. Welcome to the centrally planned economy. Keep the banks liquid enough to lend capital and you create jobs, starve the banks and destroy 'em. It all goes in cycles.


----------



## Toronto.gal

mrPPincer said:


> The TSX was down yesterday as North Korea tested it's long range missile :cower:


They have money for rocket tests while their people starve and China keeps giving this awful totalitarian regime much support. SIGH.

But the failed launch did not stop them from celebrating, LOL.

Let's hope that NK is exporting their failed technology to Iran.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nightly-news/47046370/#47046370


----------



## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> Let's hope that NK is exporting their failed technology to Iran.


LOL. But in reality, it is likely to be the other way around.
Iran's capability and resources - both technological and financial - are far superior to those of N. Korea.
N. Korea are just paper tigers.
They never have, and probably never will, do or build anything of significance.


----------



## Belguy

Why do Russia and China keep supporting regimes such as those in North Korea and Iran? Can't they see that this will lead to more instability in the world which will negatively affect their economies along with those of the rest of the world?


----------



## Dmoney

If no one else is willing to take Iranian oil, China gets a discount. Works in their favour.

If China sees global instability as in China's best interest, China will promote global instability.

Don't think for a second that they don't have their own interests placed well ahead of all others'.


----------



## Belguy

I thought that the new so-called 'democratic' Russia was on our side and that the cold war had ended. Apparently, I am mistaken. Nothing much has changed. If we say 'white', they say 'black' etc. I don't trust them anymore than they apparently trust us. As for China, I don't trust them either but the West is pretty much responsible for their boom times which will turn around and bite us in the end if it isn't already.


----------



## buhhy

Having NK around is better for China than without, not that China likes NK or anything.


----------



## KaeJS

Another bloodbath tomorrow?

I'm beginning to have my doubts about the markets. Maybe I should pick a new career path.


----------



## Causalien

Belguy said:


> I thought that the new so-called 'democratic' Russia was on our side and that the cold war had ended. Apparently, I am mistaken. Nothing much has changed. If we say 'white', they say 'black' etc. I don't trust them anymore than they apparently trust us. As for China, I don't trust them either but the West is pretty much responsible for their boom times which will turn around and bite us in the end if it isn't already.


Belguy, you seriously believe there's a "democratic" Russia after all these years?


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Another bloodbath tomorrow?
> 
> I'm beginning to have my doubts about the markets. Maybe I should pick a new career path.


KaeJS, what is you plan with SU you bought?


----------



## KaeJS

gibor said:


> KaeJS, what is you plan with SU you bought?


That's a damn good question.

My original plan was to sell it all at $32/share, but right now, the market has my emotions freaking out.

I'm trying to stay levelheaded, but I feel like emotion is clouding my judgement.

I'm not too happy about the $500k fine they just paid, either.


----------



## Argonaut

KaeJS said:


> I'm beginning to have my doubts about the markets. Maybe I should pick a new career path.


I think maybe you just need to switch up your strategy. If I'm reading this right, you've paid $256.52 in commissions and a lot of your time in order to make a total of $59.51.

My own buy-and-hold portfolio hasn't done that great, outperforming the TSX by 2% but underperforming the S&P 500. But it's setup defensively to outperform during market declines so I'm confident right now. As for time spent, I made 5 trades at 6:30AM on the first trading day of the year and haven't touched it since. My options trading has been quiet but fairly effective this year, although I consider that separate.

There are a place for trades, but I would go for the sniper approach as opposed to the machine gun strategy. One can spray bullets all around, hoping that some of them will hit. Or one can take carefully aimed and accurate shots at the market, with patience and a steady hand.


----------



## Dibs

Argo, I always love reading your posts.

For me, I've found that taking a buy and hold strategy and holding index funds allow me to sleep much better at night. The one time I was in for a short term trade, watching the price hourly played way too much on my emotions.


----------



## KaeJS

Argo, I was up 9.5% up until about 2 weeks ago.

Now, I am highly leveraged on MT and SU, so both of these stocks have a major impact on my percentage gain for the year. If the day stays green today, my profit will jump significantly for the year.

If I can strike a couple positive days in a row (for example, today, tuesday, and the opening of Wednesday), I should be able to get back to where I was.

However, you are right. I guess I got caught up in the moment when making trades a couple weeks ago. :hopelessness:


----------



## JustAGuy

Looks like it's shaping up to be another fun week >.>


----------



## Homerhomer

If those minor swings make you nervous then the strategy you are employing isn't working for you.


----------



## JustAGuy

Not nervous. I fully expect stuff to come back up. Just every single item on my watch list (whether I've got money in it at the moment or not) was going down except suncorp and delta airlines.


----------



## Belguy

An asset allocation true to your personality, risk tolerance, and time horizon is a key to being able to sleep well through all market conditions. Also, most investors over estimate their risk tolerance and only discover the truth when there is a market crash--and there will always be market crashes.

I recently reduced my equity allocation to 50 per cent of my total portfolio and have further plans to reduce that to 40 per cent. This is not so much because of my risk tolerance, as I have never sold anything out of panic and have always slept well during all market conditions, but more because of my diminishing time horizon.


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> I have never sold anything out of panic and have *always slept well during all market conditions*.


Really?


----------



## Jungle

Yea, under his bed!!!! ^^^^


----------



## gibor365

scomac said:


> Really?


It doesn't called panic, it's called - hiding :biggrin:


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> my own buy-and-hold portfolio hasn't done that great, outperforming the TSX by 2%


After today, I'm sure we are not that far apart. I am outperforming the TSX by 1.3%, as my portfolio jumped today in value. If SU and MT both went up only $1 each, (excluding other stocks) my XIRR would jump to +7.77% for the year.



JustAGuy said:


> Not nervous. I fully expect stuff to come back up. Just every single item on my watch list (whether I've got money in it at the moment or not) was going down except suncorp and delta airlines.


I believe Homerhomer was talking about me. But it's good to see you are not nervous.

I wouldn't be nervous, either, if I wasn't borrowing money. (Which I'm going to stop doing as soon as I sell SU and MT. Once I have sold them, I will be margin free)


----------



## Belguy

Without doing any market timing and buying and selling individual stocks after first doing the necessary due diligence, I just stayed invested in ETF's tracking the indexes and basically matched the performance (or lack thereof) of the indexes less a small management fee. Yes, I do sleep very well through all market conditions and just buy and hold forever. However, I am amused by reading about all of the buying and selling and trying to outperform the indexes over the long term. Good luck with that!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> I am amused by reading about all of the buying and selling and trying to outperform the indexes *over the long term.* Good luck with that!!


Over the long term? I never heard anyone here make such a statement. :rolleyes2:

*Kae:* glad to hear about the margin-free approach! :encouragement:


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> Yes, I do sleep very well through all market conditions and just buy and hold forever.


So why all the concern with the latest sound bites that are spewed forth by the financial media and various market pundits? 

You claim it doesn't matter and yet you are preoccupied with it posting links to the flavour of the day article that has the sky falling. :cower:


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I wouldn't be nervous, either, if I wasn't borrowing money. (Which I'm going to stop doing as soon as I sell SU and MT. Once I have sold them, I will be margin free)


Both are good stocks for a long-term, but with margin - rules are different.


----------



## humble_pie

in the distance Alice saw the Froggy Footman flourishing an enormous snow-white tablecloth of hand-embroidered Battenburg lace over the table. When she biked up with the Dormouse standing in her straw bicycle basket, she found the others already gathered for another tea party.

look, mademoiselle Alice, we have found a tiny highchair for the Dormouse, c'est mignon, said the Froggy Footman.

i-am-always-amused-when-they-talk-about-buying-and-selling-because-i-never-buy-or-sell-and-i-sleep-very-well, the Dormouse mumbled.

That! Will! Do! shouted the Mad Hatter. He produced a giant orange terrycloth child's bib printed with purple elephants from his waistcoat pocket & passed it to the Footman. Here, tie this bib on the Dormouse, he said.

i-don't-need-a-bib-i-am-the-most-successful-investor-at-the-tea-table squawked the Dormouse.

you always drool when you talk like that, said the Mad Hatter. It's either wear the bib or you go into the teapot again.

.


----------



## Jungle

He's a bi-polar investor like me. At least he has a plan and stuck to that. I think he just needed more fixed (ie more bonds) for his risk tolerance. Due to the recent ups and downs, I don't blame him. 

Cant even say I stuck to my plan, made some mistakes but I am learning a lot.


----------



## kcowan

The TSX is trading at the same level that it did in March 2006. How are all the passive indexers enjoying that? Is Belguy happy? 6 years!

And the odds are good that the year will end around that level or below!


----------



## Four Pillars

kcowan said:


> The TSX is trading at the same level that it did in March 2006. How are all the passive indexers enjoying that? Is Belguy happy? 6 years!
> 
> And the odds are good that the year will end around that level or below!


Are you including dividends?

What about other markets? I have VTI, VEA in greater quantities than Canadian equities not to mention 25% in short term bonds.

And how has your active portfolio performed over that exact time period?


----------



## Belguy

I have often said that I believe that we are four years into a lost decade (at a minimum) for equities. Over the past year, my index portfolio has returned negative 2.1 per cent and I 'accomplished' this without even trying!! We will never know, but it would be interesting to know how this performance compares with that of MOST active traders on this forum. Of course, there will always be some who can outperform the indexes over a specific period of time but those will become less and less the longer the period that you measure. However, it is always disheartening to discover that one would be a few thousand dollars ahead over the past year had one just put the money under the mattress instead of investing in a portfolio of index products. Maybe I should get out my favorite investment book, 'The Tortoise and the Hare' and read it again. As I've said, I have come to the realization that I am not going to become rich in this lifetime but maybe I will get another swing at the bat in the next one.


----------



## gibor365

The question whom do you call active traders? Do you consider dividend investors as active traders? If you mean day/swing traders - it also can be different. Some investors in this forum have long positions in solid dividend stocks with majority of their invested money, but also trading small % sometimes with the same solid dividend stocks.... so in the best case they have profit and adding to a long position, in the worst - adding (averaging down/up) on existing long position. This approach completely different from frequently trading something like TZA/TNA or FAS/FAZ


----------



## ddkay

Spain raised more than they had to at their bond auction, looks like another short term bottom is in


----------



## ddkay

Belguy said:


> Most predict low returns for the indexes in the years ahead.


"Beating estimates" always results in upside! Long term forecasts are constantly constantly revised so I wouldn't put much weight on them


----------



## humble_pie

Belguy said:


> Over the past year, my index portfolio has returned negative 2.1 per cent ... it would be interesting to know how this performance compares with that of MOST active traders on this forum.



belguy here are my figures from 31 march/11 to 31 march/12, in a sealed account with all dividends & capital gains reinvested.

this is my typical portfolio. It was up 15.97% over that 12-month time frame.

it was not actively traded. It was moderately traded.


----------



## Belguy

Good on you, humble and congratulations. How have your three, five and ten year returns been? Would you consider taking over management of my portfolio?

I hope that you didn't invest in an S&P 500 index fund as you would have experienced no net gain over the past 13 YEARS!! Very sad.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

I'm indexed myself and I have a much more aggressive asset allocation and my one year returns are -0.14% or basically flat. I'm curious how Belguy managed more losses with a higher allocation to bonds? Keep in mind that 2011 was a great year for bonds.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

kcowan said:


> The TSX is trading at the same level that it did in March 2006. How are all the passive indexers enjoying that? Is Belguy happy? 6 years!
> 
> And the odds are good that the year will end around that level or below!


Funny you should mention that. I participate in a Group RRSP at work. 100% invested in Canadian stocks through an actively managed fund that more or less tracks the TSX Composite. The IRR for regular contributions since 02/2006 is 4.2%. Not great, I agree but not bad at all.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Spain raised more than they had to at their bond auction, looks like another short term bottom is in


Um. Based on what?

Am I missing something?

I'm more bullish than bearish.


----------



## ddkay

KaeJS said:


> Based on what?


The Spanish Treasury raised €3.2B of 12 and 18 month bills when the target was set between €2-3B. It was mostly domestic banks bidding with free money borrowed from the ECB (since they've been practically shut out of wholesale markets). There will be a second auction on Thursday for 2 and 10-year bonds. Also earnings season kicked off with KO and GS beating estimates so we rippin' again.


----------



## kcowan

CanadianCapitalist said:


> Funny you should mention that. I participate in a Group RRSP at work. 100% invested in Canadian stocks through an actively managed fund that more or less tracks the TSX Composite. The IRR for regular contributions since 02/2006 is 4.2%. Not great, I agree but not bad at all.


Thanks CC. That would have been the "pure" dividend component. I agree. Not bad considering it covers the Big Dip! And free of tax too.


----------



## al42

Lots of RED on the markets over seas this morning.
Could be another rough day.


----------



## mrPPincer

yep, americas futures are red too, I'm waiting for one more limit order to kick in to finish up my new allocation, so maybe today


----------



## Belguy

Do you every notice that, with every bit of bad news out of Europe, the markets tank for the day? This then begs the question, how many more days of bad news out of Europe lie ahead given that many feel that this problem will be with us for many more YEARS?

Also, 'Sell in May and Go Away' (or maybe not):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...th-of-sell-in-may-and-go-away/article2411254/


----------



## Causalien

Belguy said:


> Do you every notice that, with every bit of bad news out of Europe, the markets tank for the day? This then begs the question, how many more days of bad news out of Europe lie ahead given that many feel that this problem will be with us for many more YEARS?
> 
> Also, 'Sell in May and Go Away' (or maybe not):
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...th-of-sell-in-may-and-go-away/article2411254/


Oh. I like this post.


----------



## Nemo2

Will there ever again be 'good' news out of Europe?


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Nemo2 said:


> Will there ever again be 'good' news out of Europe?


who needs EUROPE man?
we have apple. 
apple is all you need:encouragement:


----------



## Belguy

Thanks in large part to Europe, we are four years into a lost decade--or more--for stocks.

Hopefully (for them), the next generation of investors will have better timing.


----------



## KaeJS

What blows my mind is that stocks are trading at lower valuations today than they were 8 years ago. LOL


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Belguy said:


> Thanks in large part to Europe, we are four years into a lost decade--or more--for stocks.
> 
> Hopefully (for them), the next generation of investors will have better timing.


Bel
from my end i actually thank europe for the high volatile mkts.
it creates several trading opportunities.


----------



## Belguy

Have a little pity for we buy-and-hold investors!! Where might the markets be in another eight years? Ykes!! You're kidding??


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Belguy said:


> Have a little pity for we buy-and-hold investors!! Where might the markets be in another eight years? Ykes!! You're kidding??


funny thing u mention that.
the WE buy and hold investors today are HFT computers in the trading floors.
if u ever have the time and a good platform u can see how these HFT machines manage to lift or drop pivot points on the indexes with amazing precision.
nowadays u just cant beat the machines, not the mkt.
sometimes the mkt gives us a beating , but that is part of the game.
all you basically see is the pit traders adjusting the algos or maybe ocasionally when a large bid hits his desk he does actually place the order.
and i mean a real large block order .
other than that there is us little tiny fish going with the flow.
i think that for my trading style i have bought a lot of stuff lately and plan to hold it, except YPF which i sold for 14 bux.
should have sold for 15 but .....
missed CAT at 100 bux but i think i will see that or lower again.
plus some other bellwethers.
cheers :encouragement:


----------



## scomac

Nemo2 said:


> Will there ever again be 'good' news out of Europe?


When has there ever been _good_ news out of Europe? 

:friendly_wink:


----------



## kcowan

scomac said:


> When has there ever been _good_ news out of Europe?
> 
> :friendly_wink:


1945?


----------



## Belguy

Buy-and-hold index investors should keep in mind that they S&P 500 has essentially gone nowhere in the past 13 YEARS!!!


----------



## Causalien

Belguy said:


> Buy-and-hold index investors should keep in mind that they S&P 500 has essentially gone nowhere in the past 13 YEARS!!!


YES! Stage two.


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Buy-and-hold index investors should keep in mind that they S&P 500 has essentially gone nowhere in the past 13 YEARS!!!


This is why buying an index and holding it is dead.


----------



## ddkay

Nice interview with Lloyd Blankfien today... asked for his view on the markets, he responded "the biggest risk is things go right" http://mobile.bloomberg.com/share/video/FzeWRqNDq9Xp6zWlUwGdi-uSrR_eMITT


----------



## KaeJS

*ddkay,*

Interesting.

Time to buy?

Goldman says yes.


----------



## Belguy

Ontario faces credit downgrade and tougher times ahead:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...tlook-from-stable-to-negative/article2414068/

The thing that scares me is the minority government with the NDP pushing for, and receiving, concessions that will water down the too few tough measures that the Grits included in the budget.

Oh well, Ontario might just as well join the recession bandwagon as most everybody else is.

Also, Daimler has announced that it is closing it's Mississauga Orion bus manufacturing plant. There go 400 more good paying jobs!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ds-canadas-manufacturing-pain/article2413516/

Message to Alberta: Please send money!!!


----------



## londoncalling

Belguy said:


> Message to Alberta: Please send money!!!


LOL...

Reply to Ontario: We'll keep our money... please send skilled workers...:eagerness::encouragement::tongue-new:


----------



## KaeJS

Keep your snow, too!


----------



## zylon

Belguy said:


> Message to Alberta: Please send money!!!


*We have oil; you have pipe?*









http://www.kathrynmarshall.ca/ethical-oil/mcguinty-wrong-about-the-oil-sands/


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> Oh well, Ontario might just as well join the recession bandwagon as most everybody else is.


I don't think Ontario ever really left the recession bandwagon. The only thing that has kept the province going has been new home construction and a misguided green energy program, neither of which are permanent solutions to the province's economic woes.


----------



## kcowan

I know Toronto seems to be chugging along. How is the mood in Hamilton?


----------



## Toronto.gal

zylon said:


> *We have oil; you have pipe?*


Alberta has 206,000 reasons to thank Ontario! :encouragement:

http://www.troymedia.com/blog/2012/03/27/alberta-has-206000-reasons-to-thank-ontario/


----------



## Causalien

My market leaders are leading again. + Belguy is at stage 2 pessimism. I'd say I am a bitt optimistic.


----------



## KaeJS

Causalien said:


> My market leaders are leading again. + Belguy is at stage 2 pessimism. I'd say I am a bitt optimistic.


I'm optimistic. 

Economy is growing in the US (even if it's taking a while). Most companies are exceeding earnings. China still above 8%+, regardless of decline. And who cares about Britain? :fox:

I don't understand what all the pessimism and stock selling is all about.

Belguy indicator is usually correct.


----------



## HaroldCrump

scomac said:


> The only thing that has kept the province going has been new home construction and a misguided green energy program, neither of which are permanent solutions to the province's economic woes.


Agreed, in addition:
The only thing that has kept the province going has been increases in various forms of taxation, fees, charges, etc.
And I'm not talking about the extra 2% "fairness tax".
Ontario has a systemic, endemic debt/deficit problem and the only reason it has managed to keep its head above water (and that is arguable, too) is because of punitive tax increases.


----------



## zylon

Toronto.gal said:


> Alberta has 206,000 reasons to thank Ontario! :encouragement:





> Thanks for the 206,000 new Albertans, Mr. McGuinty. They are greatly appreciated. We know you’re very sad to see them leave, just as we were sad in 1980. But everyone is better off if Canadians are working, regardless of where in the country they find that work. Alberta is better off. Ontario is better off. Ottawa is happy with the income tax revenue, ... etc


signed: _happy albertan_










__________________
_The inner road is the only path worth travelling._


----------



## Belguy

Belguy is not all that enthusiastic about the markets because he is not getting rich fast. We are almost a third through the year and the TSX has essentially gone nowhere.

How does flat for the whole year sound to you?:dispirited:

Or, how does flat for an entire decade turn your crank?:crushed:


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> Belguy is not all that enthusiastic about the markets because he is not getting rich fast. We are almost a third through the year and the TSX has essentially gone nowhere.
> 
> How does flat for the whole year sound to you?:dispirited:
> 
> Or, how does flat for an entire decade turn your crank?:crushed:


Belguy pessimist indicator starting to show up more frequently, the time to buy is approaching fast !!!

IMHO, the best play are energy + basic materials

My primary targets are: CHK, MT

Horizon 18-24 months


----------



## Toronto.gal

larry81 said:


> IMHO, the best play are energy + basic materials


I so agree!! Those who missed buying AAPL should be aware that there are many other opportunities out there; there is always plan B & C & D......

Speaking of energy, why didn't you buy Cheniere Energy last year, or do you own the stock already? Very disappointed with myself for missing this. :numbness:


----------



## Causalien

This just happened.
Saw Belguy's level 2 pessimism post yesterday.
Today, a stock that takes up 20% of my portfolio went up 20%
I am shooting myself for selling put in another stock because I had no idea today is the winning stock's earnings release due to the exhaustion from pulling all nighters inputing data for my tax return.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Causalien said:


> Saw Belguy's level 2 pessimism post yesterday.


We need a Belguy market indicator meter like this:










Then you can write one of your AI programs to simply trade in/out based on the meter.
Problem solved.


----------



## Causalien

I think we should stop mentioning Belguy. Him knowing his an indicator might skew the results.


----------



## Belguy

Ya, why don't y'all just post some more car pictures and do something more productive??


----------



## Toronto.gal

LOL. :biggrin:

You're popular here, don't you like that Mr. Belguy?


----------



## larry81

*Buy & hold & be anxious !*

Sound like a great investment strategy.

Why dont you start playing golf or something !


----------



## Belguy

Golf is a complete waste of time but participating in this forum is interesting, informative, productive and beneficial to those who wish to listen and take my advice which I provide free gratis even though it is worth considerably more than that!!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Golf is a complete waste of time


Buy and Holders _*CAN*_ agree with Traders. :wink:


----------



## Belguy

'Zombie' stock markets not likely to go anywhere in the years ahead:

http://www.advisor.ca/investments/market-insights/long-term-investing-is-dead-gundlach-77474

From the G&M's Rob Carrick, we are living in a secular bear market where stocks will go up and go down on a daily basis but ultimately lose in value:

http://www.icecapassetmanagement.co...ManagementLimitedGlobalMarkets April 2012.pdf


----------



## ddkay

Nobody posted info on the 2-notch Spain rating downgrade yet?


----------



## ddkay

This is for Belguy lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIBodH7s6Cs&feature=BFa&list=PLBEB270EE06A51A47


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Nobody posted info on the 2-notch Spain rating downgrade yet?


I was too busy hiding under the bed.

Happy Bloodbath Friday, everyone!


----------



## larry81

Toronto.gal said:


> Speaking of energy, why didn't you buy Cheniere Energy last year, or do you own the stock already? Very disappointed with myself for missing this. :numbness:


Unfortunaly, i dont own any Cheniere ! But i own a bunch of SU


----------



## scomac

kcowan said:


> I know Toronto seems to be chugging along. How is the mood in Hamilton?


Great provided that you can get a long with all the refugees from Toronto! 

Seriously though, there are some positive things happening in the last year or so, but it hasn't been anywhere near enough to make up for the contraction in manufacturing jobs over the last decade or so. Hamilton is now more or less a bedroom community as I see it.

-----------

As far as the province is concerned; there has been a huge increase in the amount of residential housing that isn't commensurate with real growth in the economy. IOW there has been a big increase in the population without a corresponding increase in highly skilled high paying jobs. A lot of this is probably due to immigration. The increase in people coming into the province has likely led to an increase in the demand for services and benefits from the public purse. Without the corresponding increase in high paying jobs and the legislative trend toward lower taxation, you get caught between the rock and the hard place of funding short falls very quickly. The knee-jerk response is to cut spending when in effect what needs to happen is an increase in revenues. At some point, people are going to realize that you can't increase revenues under the spectre or non-existent economic growth and the only way out will be through increased taxation. A 15% HST is probably the answer, but no one wants to hear it.


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> Golf is a complete waste of time but participating in this forum is interesting, informative, productive and *beneficial to those who wish to listen and take my advice which I provide free gratis even though it is worth considerably more than that!!*


:highly_amused: :highly_amused: :highly_amused:


----------



## kcowan

scomac said:


> Hamilton is now more or less a bedroom community as I see it.


Yes when I lived in Ontario (81 - 95), Markham/Unionville was a bedroom community. In fact, U'ville surpasssed Oakville as the highest salaried bedroom community then.


> A 15% HST is probably the answer, but no one wants to hear it.


yes I think that higher GST will eventually lead us all out of the wilderness (providing that carbon taxes do not replace it).

(The idea of an extra tax on the rich is just stupid.)


----------



## Belguy

Read my lips--no new taxes!! In fact, cut taxes even more and eliminate government waste starting with the whole green energy fiasco and junior kindergarten which may have been a good idea--IF we could afford it. The NDP's pressure to tax the rich is another stupid idea that won't do a thing to enhance investment in Ontario as is the recent decision to postpone corporate tax cuts. These are stupid and ill conceived ideas that will chase investment from the province just at the time that it is needed the most. What did we do to deserve these politicians? These are examples of a minority government that is leading us into the wilderness with more credit downgrades to come. Sad!!!


----------



## scomac

I can see that you have drank the Kool Aid, Belguy. They got everyone believing; too bad the facts don't back up the fairy tale, but hey, that's OK, because greed is good; right? Wait a minute; aren`t you the guy b*tching because the gravy train has left you behind?


----------



## Jungle

Wow Canada adds 58k jobs vs 10k estimate , lol
Jobs jobs jobs, spend spend spend, stocks go up


----------



## Dibs

Well that was a fun day in the markets. Is QE3 coming about?


----------



## Belguy

Stocks closed the day at a five week high!!

We're in the money!!!:biggrin::encouragement::excitement:

Buy, hold and PROSPER is my motto.


----------



## Eder

I earned a Harley today but I'm sure I gonna give back a Honda tomorrow.


----------



## Belguy

I'm sure that you won't have to sell anything because we are on a roll!! Keep positive!!:encouragement:


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> I'm sure that you won't have to sell anything because we are on a roll!! Keep positive!!:encouragement:


I sold all my BMO shares today.

Bernanke is going to speak tomorrow. Futures are currently red.

Tomorrow = down day.

Short lived, folks.

The dwindling QE3 fire will be put out tomorrow and fears about Europe will come back.


----------



## Belguy

Exactly when might the fears about Europe go away? 

I have heard from some of the pundits that, because of the situation in Europe that the equity markets are currently essentially "uninvestable" whatever that means.


----------



## fatcat

KaeJS said:


> I sold all my BMO shares today.
> 
> Bernanke is going to speak tomorrow. Futures are currently red.
> 
> Tomorrow = down day.
> 
> Short lived, folks.
> 
> The dwindling QE3 fire will be put out tomorrow and fears about Europe will come back.


i agree that _the bernank_ isn't going to qe and the markets are not going to like it especially gold which i think will tank in the absence of a qe ... hope and fear, hope and fear ... i will finally be able to get goldcorp for under 30


----------



## Young&Ambitious

KaeJS said:


> Tomorrow = down day.


I sure hope so! Funds finally transferred into my brokerage account today so if I like the prices tomorrow I'll be buying


----------



## Miser

Belguy said:


> Exactly when might the fears about Europe go away?
> 
> I have heard from some of the pundits that, because of the situation in Europe that the equity markets are currently essentially "uninvestable" whatever that means.


Europe is toast.....a matter of time.
Greece will leave and Germany will refuse to bailout the welfare states.


----------



## blin10

Miser said:


> Europe is toast.....a matter of time.
> Greece will leave and Germany will refuse to bailout the welfare states.


agreed.. might take few months, might take few years, they are not paying back those billions


----------



## KaeJS

Young&Ambitious said:


> I sure hope so! Funds finally transferred into my brokerage account today so if I like the prices tomorrow I'll be buying


Glad to hear.

However, if there is no QE3 and things start going sour tomorrow, you _may_ want to hold off on throwing down the farm, as prices may get a whole lot cheaper.


----------



## Homerhomer

PG warned due to foreign exchange and weakening Asia, wonder if other companies will follow.


----------



## Dibs

_To QE, or not to QE, that is the question;
Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous recession
Or to take arms against a sea of austerity
And by opposing end them. 
_


----------



## Belguy

I have heard no end of money managers say recently that they are just holding onto their clients' money because they can't find any satisfactory way to invest it in today's economic climate.

As a buy-and-hold index investor, I find this a bit disconcerting as I remain essentially fully invested while many managers are keeping their clients OUT of today's markets.

Time will tell.


----------



## kcowan

Permabear Harry Dent offers his usual bearish outlook.
I have not followed him specifically, although I am holding cash for the ultimate buying opportunity. Especially if there is no QE3...


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> I have heard no end of money managers say recently that they are just holding onto their clients' money because they can't find any satisfactory way to invest it in today's economic climate.


It is a good thing research has shown that professional money managers are terrible market timers. I guess they probably are equally bad at timing when not to buy as they are at timing when to buy.


----------



## al42

Big Ben speaking...Down she goes.


----------



## Causalien

al42 said:


> Big Ben speaking...Down she goes.


It is so funny to observe the market today. I sold so many call options.

When will people learn that when G$ comes out and calls the fed to QE, the fed will do exactly the opposite. Politically, it is bad for fed to do as GS says.
On top of this, I've since learned to do exactly the opposite of what G$$$ is publicly advocating.


----------



## Belguy

Some random gleanings from Bernanke's news conference:

-There is still a lot of event risk in the economy.

-There is lower GDP and inflation than previously predicted.

-There is more unemployment than previously forecast and unemployment is expected to stay high through 2014--ouch!!

-The Federal Reserve has previously been too optimistic concerning the recovery and recent incoming economic data has been more disappointing than expected.

-A lot of work still must be done in Europe to stabilize the banks and sovereigns there.

-The Fed will continue to hope for the best while preparing for the worst in order to provide stability to the U.S. banking system should the situation in Europe deteriorate further.

There is additional downside to the economy is slower growth going forward.

-'Operation Twist' extended until the end of the year.

-After that 'Fiscal Cliff' poses additional uncertainty which could further damage the recovery.

-Today's moves are laying the groundwork for QE3 as further steps will need to be taken.

-The first increase in U.S. interest rates will likely not take place until 2015! 

All in all, a sobering review of the current economic situation in the U.S. and the world.


----------



## Belguy

Today's Fed update points to a lower economic outlook, not only for this year but for the two years after that. Even by the end of 2014, U.S. unemployment is forecast to decrease by just one percent!

Gasoline prices in the U.S. are projected to be lower than where they are now according to CBS News.

In the U.S., because of low stock market returns, public pension plans are underwater by a TRILLION dollars ($516 billion in California) and some some state public service pension plans are under funded by more than 50 per cent.

Meanwhile CIBC said today that Canada's economy is "barely above water" while exports are likely to decline going forward because of reduced demand overseas.

It looks like the North American economy is going to flat line, at best, until at least 2015 or beyond.


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Excellent, perhaps this will be the buying opportunity I've been waiting for! I hope your indicator is good, we shall see what the markets say tomorrow


----------



## Belguy

My thinking is that there will likely be many more buying opportunities in the weeks, months, and years ahead (and no reason to jump into the markets with both feet).

I like that TV ad for Ontario Savings Bonds where everyone is screaming on the roller coaster as it goes up and down except for one person who doesn't seem to be at all thrilled--until the ride is almost at an end and is slowing down on a straight track and then only he starts screaming and throwing his arms up in the air.

The punch line says that "not everyone likes a white-knuckled ride--invest in safe, solid, Ontario Savings Bonds".

Sometimes I feel like that person!!


----------



## dogcom

If the blood goes into the street it must go down and wash through before 2015. You may ask why but the reason is there has never been a down year for well over a hundred years in the market when in the fifth year or the year 5 in a decade.http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2005/02/the-decennial-pattern-years-ending-in-5.html


----------



## Belguy

Where is the optimism?

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1214435--outlook-darkens-among-u-s-ceos


----------



## KaeJS

*Step 1:*


Belguy said:


> I'm sure that you won't have to sell anything because we are on a roll!! Keep positive!!:encouragement:


*Step 2:*


KaeJS said:


> I sold all my BMO shares today.
> 
> Bernanke is going to speak tomorrow. Futures are currently red.
> 
> Tomorrow = down day.
> 
> Short lived, folks.
> 
> The dwindling QE3 fire will be put out tomorrow and fears about Europe will come back.


*Step 3:*


Belguy said:


> Where is the optimism?
> 
> http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1214435--outlook-darkens-among-u-s-ceos


Every. Single. Time.


----------



## Causalien

KaeJS said:


> *Step 1:*
> 
> *Step 2:*
> 
> *Step 3:*
> 
> Every. Single. Time.


Shhhhh~~~ Shush


----------



## Causalien

What I find interesting is why the market responded so late? When I read the fed announcement, I already knew what's coming. I actually doubted myself thinking maybe there's something I don't know. But a one day delay in reaction? Almost like all the big money took their computers offline.


----------



## Young&Ambitious

I'm wondering what tomorrow is going to look like :/ most of my targets didn't get reached today.


----------



## KaeJS

Young&Ambitious said:


> I'm wondering what tomorrow is going to look like :/ most of my targets didn't get reached today.


I'm going to say tomorrow is down as well. Especially being a Friday.

However, it won't be nearly as bad as today.


----------



## Causalien

This isn't bad. This is a normal drop. Friday will continue to drop in order to force the bailout of Spain to be lucrative for the traders who bet. Then Europe being Europe, they'll steam for a week with a week of slow declines followed by back and fourth between Merkel and her new favorite prime minister in Spain. Then it'll drop huge next Friday and it will be a "You blink or I blink" moment for the politicians. Then they will both bend because it is too costly to play chicken.


----------



## Belguy

Well, I hope that somebody bends because this entire European mess is getting a tad too tiresome and if they don't quit dickering around, somebody may miscalculate and send us over the cliff!!:hopelessness::upset::uncomfortableness::eek-new:


----------



## lonewolf

I think the Dow will go to new highs & touch (maybe bump along for awhile) the upward trending line drawn from the interday high of 2000 that connects to the intraday high of 2007. Which is the upper trendline of a jaws of death pattern, lower line can be drawn connecting 2002 & 2009 lows) My guess top around April 2013 (when it touches does not matter will load up on some out of money puts after an ABC rally after an initial 5 down

Then crash below 09 lows into the Martin Armstrong cycle turn date that is in Oct 2015 or +/-24 hrs within 55hrs before a new moon in Oct


Deflation accross the board once the crash starts except for maybe taxes


----------



## Homerhomer

lonewolf said:


> I think the Dow will go to new highs & touch (maybe bump along for awhile) the upward trending line drawn from the interday high of 2000 that connects to the intraday high of 2007. Which is the upper trendline of a jaws of death pattern, lower line can be drawn connecting 2002 & 2009 lows) My guess top around April 2013 (when it touches does not matter will load up on some out of money puts after an ABC rally after an initial 5 down
> 
> Then crash below 09 lows into the Martin Armstrong cycle turn date that is in Oct 2015 or +/-24 hrs within 55hrs before a new moon in Oct
> 
> 
> Deflation accross the board once the crash starts except for maybe taxes


It will only come through if my dog has a diarrhea on Sept 20, 2012 and then follows it up with a firm stool on October 20, 2013, these points which I would call D and E are crucial in Martin Armstrong cycle. ;-)


----------



## Barwelle

Wow Homer, forget the market... you should really get your dog to the vet if he's running a year and a month between defecations... yeesh


----------



## Homerhomer

Barwelle said:


> Wow Homer, forget the market... you should really get your dog to the vet if he's running a year and a month between defecations... yeesh


I just thought my dog is full of crap and never worried about it ;-)


----------



## Nick1357

I am fairly new to investing, in fact I haven't even bought anything yet (well I guess I do have a mutual fund), but I have been spending a fair bit of my spare time reading up on the stock market, investing strategies, and the economy, etc with the original intent of investing what money I have in the market. However, the more I learn about the stock market and the economy (mostly the US) the more pessimistic I am becoming about it. It just seems like there is something fishy going on.

First of all, can someone explain to me why the overall US stock market can have long term gains that exceed inflation? Where is the money coming from? Is there a higher percentage of the total US dollars now invested in the stock market than there was, say, 50 years ago causing it to balloon out? Is it the latest mega fad? I would think that for companies to now have a larger piece of the money pie, that someone else must now have a smaller piece, i.e. the average Joe. Or is the government printing money at a rate much higher than the reported inflation and this money is seeing its way into corporations and the stock market without yet affecting inflation for the average Joe to the same degree? If this is the case, then won't things need to even out sooner or later with massive inflation? (possibly a stock market correction as well?) I believe the US government has been printing money at a high rate the last few years has it not? So shouldn't inflation eventually catch up?

I guess I am wondering why, over long periods of time, the total stock market return is not zero on an inflation adjusted basis?

I'm trying to get a good handle on the markets and the economy, but I am struggling a bit to make sense of it. There are other issues that I don't think will end well, such as the continual deficits, but I can only type so much in one post. 

I don't think I'm totally stupid, but my background is engineering and not economics. If I am asking dumb questions and just need to go read economics 101 then feel free to let me know.


----------



## Belguy

Don't even try to figure out the markets as they often defy logic. Also, I too am distrustful of the entire financial system. We are currently experiencing the downside of a credit bubble and it is not going to end well. That said, there are those who expound the theory that you make money in the markets by investing during periods of maximum pessimism.

You pays your money and you takes your chances.:topsy_turvy::greedy_dollars::eek2::hopelessness:


----------



## londoncalling

new companies enter the market through IPOs which bring new money. They also dilute their company by issuing new shares. There are new investors placing money into the market all the time. In theory it should be zero sum but in reality the numbers change constantly. For example I buy at $10 a share and sell at $5. plus there are commissions and trading fees. Does that money disappear as well? No. There is also new wealth coming in from foreign investment.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Nick1357 said:


> First of all, can someone explain to me why the overall US stock market can have long term gains that exceed inflation? Where is the money coming from?
> Or is the government printing money at a rate much higher than the reported inflation and this money is seeing its way into corporations and the stock market without yet affecting inflation for the average Joe to the same degree?


Do not confuse inflation with the rise in cost of goods and services.
Inflation is an expansion of the money supply (measured primarily through M1, M2 and M3).
The cost of goods and services is reported using various "basket of goods" indexes such as CPI, WPI, RPI (different countries and agencies use different measures).

A rise/fall in the _reported_ CPI/RPI/WPI is not a measure of inflation - it is merely one of the side effects.
Money supply makes its way through the macro economy in various forms, many of which are not measured (accurately) through the CPI.
For instance, increase in RE prices, increase in underlying commodity prices, "export" of inflation via trade deficits and capital account changes.

And yes, inflation can also be reflected in the stock market in the form of an increase in P/E ratios i.e. investors willing to pay a higher multiple for same (or reduced) earnings.


----------



## dogcom

Inflation is due to an expansion of credit into the economy and then spent to cause the inflation.

To get direct inflation from the Fed or the treasury it would have to put the money directly into the hands of consumers.

We have to much debt in the system today and to dump that debt is a destruction of credit which we are seeing today. So the Fed can print to replace this debt destruction by printing to to pay the interest on the debt which doesn't do anything except pay the bills.

Countries who own US debt don't like this because they are just being paid paper to satisfy them when they could have used that paper to buy oil, gold, silver and everything else so they will cause the inflation.

In the end manipulation is great and plugging the holes as fast as they can causing all kinds of problems. In the end all fiat currencies will collapse and no one knows how far the game will go.


----------



## doctrine

Do not confuse companies with the economy. They are not that well correlated - even the S&P 500, even the entire NYSE + NASDAQ, does not represent the entirety of the US or world economy. Companies can make profits and return 10%/year every year regardless of what the overall economy is doing. Others can go bankrupt.


----------



## Belguy

From July 12th Toronto Star:

"The economy is sluggish, central banks aren't riding to the rescue, and Canadian stocks are near their lowest levels for the year. Recall the S&P/TSX Composite Index's swoony dive into the deep last summer, moving from 13,500-point level in July to 12,000 points in August. The following month, the market sank further. It touched the 11,500 points range where the index basically sits mired today. This year, investors suffered through a much weaker second-quarter earnings season. As well, the risks that Spain's banking sector may be headed for bigger trouble, and that Greece may have to leave the region's common euro currency have since pulled the market down. Also, August and September are traditionally weak months for stocks. Global demand for oil is expected to decline over the rest of this year and next, according to the latest reports from OPEC. That's sending oil prices lower. Mostly markets are in a "wait and see" mode and there's a lot of waiting for data. Markets aren't too sure how to position themselves."

The TSX is currently down 3.43% on the year while the S&P 500 index is up 6.67%.

Stay tuned.


----------



## kcowan

Nick1357 said:


> I guess I am wondering why, over long periods of time, the total stock market return is not zero on an inflation adjusted basis?


If you are referring to the stock market index, these are selected to represent above average companies. They don't always get it right, but that is their aim. So they will add in AOL when they think it will grow and then drop it when they think its time is up. Also there are rules about minimum stock price so that small valuations do not allow listings.

Spend the time to understand a few companies and then invest in the ones you believe in. Track them on a quarterly basis to see if you were right. Then get rid of the losers (there will be some because the market is not rational), and repeat. In ten years, you will be wise about stock picking. Your returns will outstrip inflation, probably by several percent.


----------



## Cal

doctrine said:


> Do not confuse companies with the economy.


I will second that!


----------



## Nick1357

Appreciate all the responses.

Yeah, I have been following stocks and researching/reading up a fair bit the past several months to get a good handle on the stock picking side of it before I start buying.

However, I do find the overall market/economy dynamics quite interesting and my research-aholic side wants to understand how it works. It still seems quite complicated to me. 

Part of my thought process was that, lets say the total US money supply is a pie. Now lets say that the total stock market started out with 50% of that pie. Well, now if the stock market's piece of the pie is getting 10% bigger every year, then it is either taking up a bigger percentage of the pie or the pie itself is getting bigger at a rate of 10% per year. 

If the pie is getting bigger then this should be reflected in inflation (or the cost of stuff) sooner or later. However, if it's not getting bigger, or if it's only getting 5% bigger every year, then the stock market keeps taking up a bigger percentage of the pie. The stock market constantly increasing its percentage of the pie doesn't seem sustainable over the long term.

Now, I do realize that the cpi does not include everything that the layman would think of as inflation (such as real estate), so I may not always be looking at the right information and I am still trying to sift through it all a bit. But hell, I don't even see the need for inflation at all really, I mean why not print money at a rate equivalent to the growth of the population? Wouldn't that be pretty simple? But then I guess that wouldn't help the governments reduce their debt load, if that is indeed the purpose of it....

Speaking of debt and government spending, I'm reminded of my ex-girlfriend; she was constantly in debt and spending more than she was making, hell she was borrowing money to pay her interest. She also kept bumming me for money that I knew I would never get back... which ruined our relationship. She is pretty much frigged financially, and I think she might be best off just going bankrupt as she owes more money than she will pretty much ever be able to pay back. But the offers for credit cards just kept rolling in and she couldn't help herself....


----------



## londoncalling

thank your lucky stars she is your ex gf and not your current wife


----------



## Causalien

This is how I look at the game.

The pie = all human time/effort converted into exchangeable currency up to this point of human history - destruction
Stock market = a slice of this pie

Other slices of the pie includes CDS, bonds, mortgages and currency swaps that are bigger than the stock market

At any point, one piece of pie is just growing bigger at the expense of others. A stock market collapse just means another part of pie is growing bigger. Or people are converting out to something that are not tracked by any of the slices of pie.

Your effort at gaining riches, is just absorbing more % of this pie. 

When you have above certain % of this pie, you can start to influence others with your weight. Below certain point, you can't do jack. Therefore, it is not only ethical, but an imperative for anyone with a goal, and the ability, to move humanity forward, to suck as much % of this pie as possible under their control.


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## sags

LOL.............Greed is good.............


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## Causalien

Basically. 

I spent a lot of time trying to deal with this sad fact about myself. That my belief actually goes along the line of "greed is good". But then I said: "**** it", that's words reflecting off of what others think based on their world. I just want to advance humanity or build something. Since I am not smart enough to figure the meaning of life out.


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## doctrine

This is where you are mistaken - profit margins are already reflected in GDP. Canada's GDP in 2011 was $1.7 trillion. Let's say companies accounted for 50%, so $850 billion. There is a profit margin, and across all industries it might be something like 10%. That means $85 billion in profit for owners companies doing business in Canada. That $85 billion will be returned year after year after year after year, even if the GDP growth is 0%. GDP growth is not 0%, in fact its 2.5%, plus inflation, which is also 2.5%. Therefore, the economy is growing nominally by 5% year after year. So the $85 billion in profits will grow, on average, by 5% year after year. 

Lots of room for companies to make 10% profits forever in the economy, plus grow them by 5% year over year. Some companies do better, some do worse. This is why people who own businesses are the richest in the world.


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## Nick1357

Lots of good things to think about. I'll need to take some time to digest all of it.

One of the main reasons I originally became interested in in this is to develop my own opinion on the valuation of the market at this point in time and whether now is a decent time to start investing or if I should wait and see with the expectation that the market has more correction left in it.

A couple indicators that I've been looking at:

http://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php

http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

here is something which questions what the actual inflation rate is:

http://www.policymic.com/articles/4952/is-america-hiding-its-true-inflation-rate-and-could-the-u-s-be-as-insolvent-as-greece

Also, if you have half an hour for some reading, I found this article to be quite interesting. It seemed to agree with a lot of my original thoughts on how the economy ought to work.

http://mises.org/daily/4654/

At the end of the day, a lot of my reading has been leading me to the belief that despite the recent drops we have had, we may still be somewhat overvalued and be due for more correction at some point in the future.

I am also not filled with a lot of confidence with what i see in how our economies are run with the deficits, etc, etc... it reminds me too much of my previous example of my ex-girlfriend and I think sooner or later it will end poorly. but I guess I may just have to hop on the roller-coaster ride and hope I can make my money and spend it all before the ride ends.

This is all influencing my decisions on what to look for and buy in the stock market. I'm thinking "well, what sectors do I expect to drop if the market goes down and which do I think will remain strong or have already fallen and are therefore fairly valued. If there is some sort of bubble forming, what is it and how do I avoid it?" Don't get me wrong, I'm not some worry wart stressing about it all day (or at all really), but I am a value shopper in all areas of my life and investing is no different. However, one of my problems sometimes is that I research my purchases and investments too much when oftentimes I would just be better jumping in.


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