# The craziest bubble stocks



## james4beach

Maybe we can build a list of the craziest, most hyped, bubble stocks (or other securities) in this current market rally? Here's what I have

PLUG
TSLA
NIO
FCEL
ARKK
Bitcoin
Ethereum

And here are some performance statistics, sorted by 12 month return. Originally I was going to use % but the numbers are so huge that I decided to convert them to "multiples". For example NIO went up 17.7 fold, over 12 months ($1,000 became $17,700). The lowest performer on the list is ARKK which only about tripled in price, 2.8 times.

The winner over 1 month is PLUG.

I am not interested in owning any of these, but bubbles are fascinating to watch.


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## doctrine

I have some special cases for you.

COVID test companies like SONA Nanotech on the CSNX, MedMira and THRM on the TSXV.

CloudMD (DOC) on the TSXV

VERY good butchers on the CNSX.

Converge Technology on the TSXV.


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## MrBlackhill

We should define what's the criteria for a stock to be considered on a bubble.

I guess your criteria is just insane share price growth, no matter if it seems justified or not based on usual metrics.

For instance, is it a bubble when a stock rises +400% but is still trading at P/S below 1?

Is it a bubble when a stock rises +800% but is still trading at P/E below 10?


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## james4beach

I wouldn't worry about valuation... just list anything that's been going up like crazy recently.

Interesting ideas @doctrine

Personally I love the parabolic chart on PLUG. By "love" I mean, I'm fascinated by this insanity. And look at that volume! Plus... this is no penny stock. It's worth $30 billion! So crazy.

Volume today was 110 million shares. That's *double the SPY volume*! Absolutely unbelievable.


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## james4beach

Maybe I should clarify that I am not endorsing any of these, and I would never buy any of these, except for my $600 in bitcoin (gambling fun).

But Bitcoin is boring compared to these stocks. Take *FCEL* for example. It isn't a penny stock, not a micro cap. It's a large stock with very high daily volume and liquidity.

Here are the single day movements recently, rounding to whole percents. Each of these is one day!

Jan 5: up 6%
Jan 6: up 10%
Jan 7: up 22%
Jan 8: up 2%

Jan 11: up 3%
Jan 12: up 21%


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## james4beach

I was just watching misc clips on Youtube and this came into my recommendations. Here you'll find Cramer pumping 3 of the stocks I listed!

I can't believe people invest like this.


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## james4beach

Here's a mid cap Canadian one! Same mania theme as many of the ones I listed above, and what Cramer is pumping.

Ballard Power, BLDP. It's up 74% over the last month, and up 279% in the last year (that's nearly 4X)


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## MrBlackhill

The best one on the Canadian side might be Acuity Ads (AT.TO).

52-week low : $0.72
52-week high : $22.44
That's 31x.

Its trailing 1-year is currently 11x.

Calgary_Girl has enjoyed that stock.

It was recommended on Motley Fool Hidden Gems when its price was $1.14 a few months ago. It's currently trading at $17.61.


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## MarcoE

How do we define if they're in a bubble? If they never pop, and they become the next Amazons/Netflixs/Googles, then maybe they're not bubbles. Maybe we can only safely call them "bubbles" after they pop?


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## MrMatt

Ethereum is not a security.


MarcoE said:


> How do we define if they're in a bubble? If they never pop, and they become the next Amazons/Netflixs/Googles, then maybe they're not bubbles. Maybe we can only safely call them "bubbles" after they pop?


<sarcasm>If they're full of nothing but air, they're a bubble. If they stay that way for a while, maybe they're a mylar balloon.

Really we're talking about stocks that have prices that are far beyond what they are worth.

I held off years before buying Google and Amazon, because I didn't understand the valuation. Maybe that's the case here.


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## Jimmy

Most of these stocks growing rapidly have the sales and earnings to support their valuations. The market determines the value of these companies after all and is reasonably efficient as in all news is impounded into the stock price. On Morningstar the tech sector is ~ 15% overvalued now, the market 10% . Not exactly a 'bubble'

The returns are from the absolute bottom of the market too where many companies were doubling over the past 6 months - even stodgy oil companies so seeing a tech stock rise 200% shouldn't be too alarming. The trend of online shopping and other e services just got accelerated too in the pandemic.

You can look up the P/S ratio and compare it to the sales growth. Then you can see if any companies are under or over valued and invest accordingly.


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## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I held off years before buying Google and Amazon, because I didn't understand the valuation.


Me too. Same for Apple, Tesla etc. They always intrigue me then I read on here how overvalued they are

Exponential growth is hard to understand until it's hindsight


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## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Me too. Same for Apple, Tesla etc. They always intrigue me then I read on here how overvalued they are
> 
> Exponential growth is hard to understand until it's hindsight


I think Apple is a bit overvalued, but they're moving a lot of their revenue from devices sales to the App Store.


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## james4beach

Jimmy said:


> Most of these stocks growing rapidly have the sales and earnings to support their valuations. The market determines the value of these companies after all and is reasonably efficient as in all news is impounded into the stock price. On Morningstar the tech sector is ~ 15% overvalued now, the market 10% . Not exactly a 'bubble'


You should buy them, Jimmy. As you've said before, why settle for index returns when with a bit of smarts and hard work, you can beat the index.

TSLA, NIO, FCEL, PLUG


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> You should buy them, Jimmy. As you've said before, why settle for index returns when with a bit of smarts and hard work, you can beat the index.
> 
> TSLA, NIO, FCEL, PLUG


@Jimmy only said the tech was a bit overvalued by ~15%, which should not qualify as a bubble.

Same thing as why do you @james4beach buy the overvalued US and Canadian stocks when they are some of the most expensive markets based on their CAPE ratios? Why don't you buy Russian stocks instead?


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Same thing as why do you @james4beach buy the overvalued US and Canadian stocks when they are some of the most expensive markets based on their CAPE ratios? Why don't you buy Russian stocks instead?


One buys diversified indexes (or in a broadly diversified portfolio of stocks) to benefit from the equity premium and the market's tendency to rise over time due to the aggregate corporate earnings growth. That's investment.

One buys hot/mania stocks like PLUG to gamble and hope they will go up dramatically in the short term. It's an entirely different game. Looking at the price and volume action it's clear that PLUG and NIO are in a momentum/pumping kind of mania.

I think it's important to not confuse the two. Some people are aware that they're just gambling on PLUG, NIO, Bitcoin.

Some other people may mistake this for "investing".


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## Jimmy

james4beach said:


> You should buy them, Jimmy. As you've said before, why settle for index returns when with a bit of smarts and hard work, you can beat the index.
> 
> TSLA, NIO, FCEL, PLUG


Maybe you should try and understand these stocks and how to value them first instead of just dismissing or mislabeling them. Buying indexes is less work though.


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## MrBlackhill

Well, I was wondering why you sarcastically answered to go and buy such hot stocks when he just said the tech sector is 15% overvalued, therefore not a big bubble.

There are stocks soaring into a bubble. There are stocks soaring justified by the growth of their financials. There are stocks soaring due to their disruptive innovation potential. And there are stocks soaring because they are undervalued.

Not every stock soaring is a bubble.


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## james4beach

Jimmy said:


> Maybe you should try and understand these stocks and how to value them first instead of just dismissing or mislabeling them. If you don't want to learn more about investing that is fine too.


Yes, I understand the stocks. There is manic, trend-chasing action on TSLA, NIO, FCEL, PLUG, at the moment.

The companies themselves may or may not be bogus. I'm saying that the current trading (price action) happening on them is very likely a bubble-like speculative mania. That makes it very hard to invest in them, because their prices are very likely distorted by this gambling activity.


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## Jimmy

james4beach said:


> Yes, I understand the stocks. There is manic, trend-chasing action on TSLA, NIO, FCEL, PLUG, at the moment.
> 
> The companies themselves may or may not be bogus. I'm saying that the current trading (price action) happening on them is very likely a bubble-like speculative mania. That makes it very hard to invest in them, because their prices are very likely distorted by this gambling activity.


Maybe there is or isn't what you claim. Either way others have taken the time to value and research them, bought at good times and and see them as good investments. Tesla for ex is in many award winning ARK ETFs and the fund manager sees it as a a long term hold.


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## Ukrainiandude

Jimmy said:


> Tesla for ex is in many award winning ARK ETFs


I have looked it up. Ark has 5 active managed and 2 passive managed ETFs. So 7
Tesla is around 10% in 3 of 7 ETFs. Regardless of it, 6/7 ETFs have beaten the index by wide margin.


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## Ukrainiandude

james4beach said:


> Maybe we can build a list of the craziest, most hyped, bubble stocks (or other securities) in this current market rally? Here's what I have


 To me the whole US stock market is a giant bubble, no need to cherry pick. Similar euphoria was in Japanese nikkei in 80-90, we all know how that ended, and despite ultra low interest rates (hello FED) still has not recovered.


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## MrBlackhill

I want reactions, so let's post this.

Quiz question:

During the dot-com bubble of 2000, who had the biggest and the longest drawdown?

US Large Cap (aka S&P 500)
US Small Cap Growth
US Small Cap Value
The answer... drum roll... US Large Cap aka S&P 500! It took more than 4 years to recover from its -44% drawdown after more than 6 years underwater. Small Caps took only 9 months to recover from their -32% drop, after 2-3 years underwater.

Quiz question:

From 1995 to 2019 included, where was it best to invest $10,000 every year?


US Large Cap (aka S&P 500)
US Small Cap Growth
US Small Cap Value

The answer... drum roll... US Small Cap Growth with a final balance 18% higher than US Large Cap aka S&P 500! US Small Cap Value was also 12% higher than US Large Cap.

Who's better positioned to hedge a market bubble while outperforming? The one holding a S&P 500 ETF or the one stock-picking small caps?


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> I want reactions, so let's post this.
> 
> Quiz question:
> 
> During the dot-com bubble of 2000, who had the biggest and the longest drawdown?
> 
> US Large Cap (aka S&P 500)
> US Small Cap Growth
> US Small Cap Value
> The answer... drum roll... US Large Cap aka S&P 500! It took more than 4 years to recover from its -44% drawdown after more than 6 years underwater. Small Caps took only 9 months to recover from their -32% drop, after 2-3 years underwater.


And what was the QQQ drawdown?


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## james4beach

james4beach said:


> PLUG
> TSLA
> NIO
> FCEL
> ARKK
> Bitcoin
> Ethereum


I'll add *HMMJ* to the list

The pattern is similar and they've gained steam around the same time. If you look at volume and price movements, you'll see that a new wave of enthusiasm hit most of the above in November, and has gotten increasingly crazy since.

Nice to see that marijuana stocks are popular again.


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> And what was the QQQ drawdown?


What does QQQ hold? Large Cap.


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> What does QQQ hold? Large Cap.


Back then, it held one sector. It shows the danger of high concentration in a single sector.

No problem investing in some EVs / battery stocks, but all of these are basically one sector. If you diversify across more equity sectors, the danger of any one sector hitting you very hard is alleviated. That's the right way to put together a portfolio.

ARKK is not well diversified, by the way. It has a huge 10% weight in TSLA and also a lot of biotech. Very risky, could see huge drawdowns if things go badly.


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## Ukrainiandude

james4beach said:


> It has a huge 10% weight in TSLA


If Tesla hypothetically loses 50% of value, ARKK will drop by “huge 5%”


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> Back then, it held one sector. It shows the danger of high concentration in a single sector.
> 
> No problem investing in some EVs / battery stocks, but all of these are basically one sector. If you diversify across more equity sectors, the danger of any one sector hitting you very hard is alleviated. That's the right way to put together a portfolio.
> 
> ARKK is not well diversified, by the way. It has a huge 10% weight in TSLA and also a lot of biotech. Very risky, could see huge drawdowns if things go badly.


Talking about diversification. First, large caps had bigger drawdowns than small caps during the tech bubble. How many small caps does SPY hold? How many small caps does ARKK hold? 15%. And also 35% medium caps.

You know that small caps have a long history of outperforming. Yet everybody into SPY is missing that exposure.

And that's without mentioning SPY's huge exposure to mega caps vs ARKK mega cap exposure being only 14%.

You may feel safe with SPY having 500 holdings, but its top 6 holdings accounts for most of its performance and about 20% of its market cap.


















US healthcare has been the sector with the smallest drawdowns. See XLV. ARKK holds 35% healthcare. People fear tech drawdowns. How much tech does SPY hold? 27%. ARKK is at 29%.


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## Juggernaut92

I had a question. is Tesla in a bubble? I ask because their stock price is up 1000% since march 20 of 2020 but if I look at earnings in yahoo finance from q4 2019 to q3 of 2020 their earnings dont show a 1000% increase. Although it does show that that is when tesla first became profitable. Am i using the wrong numbers? Or is it because Tesla is considered disruptive technology that has great potential for the future?


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## MrBlackhill

Juggernaut92 said:


> Or is it because Tesla is considered disruptive technology that has great potential for the future?


Its valuation is based on the beliefs of the disruptive technology and current moat, which makes it hard to valuate. That's why it's a big debate.


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## james4beach

Juggernaut92 said:


> I had a question. is Tesla in a bubble? I ask because their stock price is up 1000% since march 20 of 2020 but if I look at earnings in yahoo finance from q4 2019 to q3 of 2020 their earnings dont show a 1000% increase. Although it does show that that is when tesla first became profitable. Am i using the wrong numbers? Or is it because Tesla is considered disruptive technology that has great potential for the future?


Nobody knows for sure, but I believe that TSLA, FCEL, PLUG and all these battery/electric related stocks are acting bubbly at least right now.

Longer term it might be a different story


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## Ukrainiandude

Americans are going to print another two trillions $$$, the bubble will be growing bigger. Then in February will be more printing. why create jobs and collect taxes if you can just print money and buy everything you need from other countries.


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## Juggernaut92

@MrBlackhill : I see. Now that you mention the moat it does make a lot of sense. I saw an interview of Cathie wood recently talking about how tesla has the most self driving car information out of anyone else as well as other things.

@james4beach :Yes for sure. I feel like I will just watch tsla for now and see what happens. Seems too hot to get involved with right now which I could be wrong about.


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## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Its valuation is based on the beliefs of the disruptive technology and current moat, which makes it hard to valuate. That's why it's a big debate.


What "disruptive technology" does Tesla have?

Everyone has electric cars, superchargers, over the air updates (if they want), self driving capabilities.

The Tesla moat is simply reputation and brand status, which while valuable, aren't a great moat.
Apple has has reputation and status, but as well the ecosystem lock in.


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## MrBlackhill

Juggernaut92 said:


> @MrBlackhill : I see. Now that you mention the moat it does make a lot of sense. I saw an interview of Cathie wood recently talking about how tesla has the most self driving car information out of anyone else as well as other things.





MrMatt said:


> What "disruptive technology" does Tesla have?
> 
> Everyone has electric cars, superchargers, over the air updates (if they want), self driving capabilities.
> 
> The Tesla moat is simply reputation and brand status, which while valuable, aren't a great moat.
> Apple has has reputation and status, but as well the ecosystem lock in.


I've just stated what the general beliefs are for TSLA investors, not my own opinion.

Well, it's my interpretation of the beliefs of TSLA investors.

As for me, I just stand clueless about TSLA, so I decided not to invest based on my cluelessness.


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## Jimmy

MrMatt said:


> What "disruptive technology" does Tesla have?
> 
> Everyone has electric cars, superchargers, over the air updates (if they want), self driving capabilities.
> 
> The Tesla moat is simply reputation and brand status, which while valuable, aren't a great moat.
> Apple has has reputation and status, but as well the ecosystem lock in.


They are way ahead of everyone for autonomous cars, batteries, autonomous taxis and ride hailing etc. Here are 2 articles explaining their edge.









Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years


Based on new research, ARK is sharing our latest model to clarify what we believe is Tesla’s potential. A Tesla price target of...




ark-invest.com













Could a Tesla Ride-Hailing Network Run Over Uber and Lyft?


The Tesla ride-hailing network could offer a compelling value proposition to both drivers and customers as they emerge from the COVID-19 crisis.




ark-invest.com


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## MrMatt

Jimmy said:


> They are way ahead of everyone for autonomous cars, batteries, autonomous taxis and ride hailing etc. Here are 2 articles explaining their edge.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years
> 
> 
> Based on new research, ARK is sharing our latest model to clarify what we believe is Tesla’s potential. A Tesla price target of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ark-invest.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Could a Tesla Ride-Hailing Network Run Over Uber and Lyft?
> 
> 
> The Tesla ride-hailing network could offer a compelling value proposition to both drivers and customers as they emerge from the COVID-19 crisis.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ark-invest.com


I'm aware of those reports
I don't think they're significantly ahead of anyone in those areas.
It's interesting that you claim they're ahead in autonomous cars, autonomous taxis and ride hailing.

Honestly the biggest barrier to autonomous vehicles at this time is regulatory approval and the liability problem. The technology in many cases is already better than human drivers. 

They might be slightly ahead in batteries, one of the most critical parts, but they're way behind in high quality mass production.
The quality rankings of Tesla have dropped significantly, which is expected as they shift from unique and premium and more into the mass market.

If their only technical advantage is battery tech, they're one innovation away from being second place.


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## kcowan

I think this should be a momentum investing thread. People who dont believe in momentum investing should not hold any stocks that do not have traditional metrics. Everything is over-valued because when the fed prints money and keeps interest rates ridiculously low, equities are the only game left.

The S&P500 is the safe territory like bonds used to be. I am 75% in equites. My net worth grew by 14% last year and the plan is 6% so I am ready for a correction. My only pure play is LULU. Everything else pays me to wait.


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## MrBlackhill

Unless it's a crash recovery, if S&P500 value is 2.5x its value from 5 years ago, don't buy. That's about 20% CAGR for the trailing 5-year. SPY is currently at 15% CAGR.

If NASDAQ is getting over 3x it's value from 5 years ago, don't buy.

The market as a whole has never justified such a fast valuation growth, so it's certainly overvalued.

3x in 5 years is almost 25% CAGR.
QQQ trailing 5-year is currently 24% CAGR.

Unless you are momentum investing.


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## Jimmy

MrMatt said:


> I'm aware of those reports
> I don't think they're significantly ahead of anyone in those areas.
> It's interesting that you claim they're ahead in autonomous cars, autonomous taxis and ride hailing.
> 
> Honestly the biggest barrier to autonomous vehicles at this time is regulatory approval and the liability problem. The technology in many cases is already better than human drivers.
> 
> They might be slightly ahead in batteries, one of the most critical parts, but they're way behind in high quality mass production.
> The quality rankings of Tesla have dropped significantly, which is expected as they shift from unique and premium and more into the mass market.
> 
> If their only technical advantage is battery tech, they're one innovation away from being second place.


From the reports they are. Uber and Lyft are unprofitable too.


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## MrMatt

Jimmy said:


> From the reports they are. Uber and Lyft are unprofitable too.


Yes, reports pumping a stock make claims that the company is technologically ahead.

What relevance is the profitability of Uber and Lyft?
I'm not buying them because their valuation doesn't make sense either.

Uber is only popular because they have an easy to use app, and they simply ignored all the laws that make taxis expensive.
Take away the cost advantage an dialing #taxi on your phone is very close.


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## Ukrainiandude

MrMatt said:


> Honestly the biggest barrier to autonomous vehicles at this time is regulatory approval and the liability problem. The technology in many cases is already better than human drivers.


Few years back, there was an article in ”The Economist“ on this topic. Apparently the future for insurance companies is not bright at all. And yes autonomous vehicles is the future, whether with or without the Tesla.


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## Jimmy

MrMatt said:


> Yes, reports pumping a stock make claims that the company is technologically ahead.
> 
> What relevance is the profitability of Uber and Lyft?
> I'm not buying them because their valuation doesn't make sense either.
> 
> Uber is only popular because they have an easy to use app, and they simply ignored all the laws that make taxis expensive.
> Take away the cost advantage an dialing #taxi on your phone is very close.


They have teams of researchers and do this for a living and know more about the stock then you or I ever will so I am inclined to listen to their advice. They get nothing for pumping any stock. Their record is on the line though. The 'relevance' of Uber is they are struggling and Tesla isn't in comparison giving Tesla a competitive edge IMO but you can believe what you want.


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## MrMatt

Jimmy said:


> They have teams of researchers and do this for a living and know more about the stock then you or I ever will so I am inclined to listen to their advice. They get nothing for pumping any stock. Their record is on the line though. The 'relevance' of Uber is they are struggling and Tesla isn't in comparison giving Tesla a competitive edge IMO but you can believe what you want.


Tesla and Uber are completely different companies in completely different industries.

GM just announced they're building their Electric delivery vehicle in Ontario. Looks like a Ford Transit, with better range.
This is really good news for them, not so great for Tesla, which hasn't been working on the commercial market.


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## Jimmy

MrMatt said:


> Tesla and Uber are completely different companies in completely different industries.
> 
> GM just announced they're building their Electric delivery vehicle in Ontario. Looks like a Ford Transit, with better range.
> This is really good news for them, not so great for Tesla, which hasn't been working on the commercial market.


But again they both will be competing in the ride hailing industry and autonomous taxis.


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## james4beach

With the market in an optimistic mood today, it looks like the craziest stocks are getting ready to lift off!

The manic pre-market buyers are already loading up. PLUG up 5% pre-market, BLDP up 8%, and SPCE up 6%.

Will these stocks be up 10% or 20% today? lol, this market has become such an unfettered casino. The Federal Reserve has done this. Wild, fearless speculation going on.


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> NIO


Interestingly, Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates portfolio holds NIO as part of its top 50 holdings.

Sure, that's less that 1% of the portfolio, but still, out of all the stocks that could've made the list of such a portfolio about diversification and reducing risk, NIO made is part of it.

If it's a bubble, I didn't know that Dalio would invest in a bubble. If it's a momentum play, I didn't know that Dalio would invest in a momentum play.






Bridgewater Associates Portfolio | Ray Dalio 13F Holdings & Trades


Heatmaps of the top 13f holdings and a list of the largest trades made by Bridgewater Associates, the hedge fund managed by Ray Dalio.




hedgefollow.com


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## MrMatt

Jimmy said:


> But again they both will be competing in the ride hailing industry and autonomous taxis.


Ride hailing and autonomous taxis is a commodity.
You'll pick Uber/Lyft/Ford/Tesla based on mostly price and time to pickup.
Not many are going to pay 10% more, to ride in a specific make.

Look at rental cars, they rent by "class". I expect that autonomous taxis will end up the same.


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## james4beach

Looks like it turned into a +10% day on FCEL and BLDP and PLUG is close at +9%.

I wonder if they can achieve a 30% increase this week? The week is still young! lol


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## MrBlackhill

I'm looking at NASDAQ and I'm 95% sure that it will drop by -30% at some point in the next 5 years, hopefully sooner than later, otherwise we're repeating the dot-com bubble and the crash will be more than -30%. I hope the correction will happen before the end of 2022.

I wish I was good at riding momentum, but I'm not, so I'm just getting ready to buy NASDAQ once it drops. It will affect S&P 500, but not as much.

NASDAQ has -10% to -15% corrections pretty often, but now it's due for a -30%, or at the very least a -20% to -25%.

Meanwhile, I don't hold cash, but when the crash will happen, I'll use all of my margin (at the bank) to buy the cheap stocks.

I'm bullish on tech, but NASDAQ is going too far.


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## Spudd

I just discovered an ETF this morning that seems to specialize in these bubble stocks. SID - CI First Asset U.S. TrendLeaders Index ETF. The holdings list is literally a list of meme stocks. Fun for the adventurous, maybe.


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## Jimmy

MrBlackhill said:


> Interestingly, Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates portfolio holds NIO as part of its top 50 holdings.
> 
> Sure, that's less that 1% of the portfolio, but still, out of all the stocks that could've made the list of such a portfolio about diversification and reducing risk, NIO made is part of it.
> 
> If it's a bubble, I didn't know that Dalio would invest in a bubble. If it's a momentum play, I didn't know that Dalio would invest in a momentum play.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bridgewater Associates Portfolio | Ray Dalio 13F Holdings & Trades
> 
> 
> Heatmaps of the top 13f holdings and a list of the largest trades made by Bridgewater Associates, the hedge fund managed by Ray Dalio.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> hedgefollow.com


Interesting. He has many growth stocks in fact. JD, PDD, BABA, Baidu, Trip.com are all China ecommerce stocks. GSX is a wild China online e education stock. Veeva is a tech ehealth stock too . Bubble or not, PDD is up 300+% in the past year.

Even Buffet owns Apple and that new IPO Snowflake. I guess he isn't too concerned about a supposed bubble either.

Lots of smart investments in Emerging markets ETFs too. China is now 16% of the global stock market so this makes sense for diversification. He doesn't seem too bothered by all the concerns in here about issues related to their govt either.


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## MrMatt

I own a sliver of BABA, don't like a lot about them, but they're desperately trying to be the Chinese Amazon.


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## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> I own a sliver of BABA, don't like a lot about them, but they're desperately trying to be the Chinese Amazon.


I'm not expert, but when I look at their fundamentals and financials compared to AMZN, they've been growing much faster and at higher profit margin with lower debt. And yet they also have a lower P/E. But their return on equity is lower.


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## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> I'm not expert, but when I look at their fundamentals and financials compared to AMZN, they've been growing much faster and at higher profit margin with lower debt. And yet they also have a lower P/E. But their return on equity is lower.


Their ownership structure was a disaster, I don't understand it.

I as a rule don't invest in things i don't understand.


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## Juggernaut92

MrMatt said:


> I own a sliver of BABA, don't like a lot about them, but they're desperately trying to be the Chinese Amazon


It's funny because it's true. They even have Ali baba cloud. Who knows they may keep growing but I feel weary about them because of the whole potential Chinese stock ban.


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## MrBlackhill

FaceDrive has interesting multiples.


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## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> What "disruptive technology" does Tesla have?
> 
> Everyone has electric cars, superchargers, over the air updates (if they want), self driving capabilities.
> 
> The Tesla moat is simply reputation and brand status, which while valuable, aren't a great moat.
> Apple has has reputation and status, but as well the ecosystem lock in.


Everyone has this, you say?

Sounds like someone who hasn't tried the products on offer.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Tesla and Uber are completely different companies in completely different industries.
> 
> GM just announced they're building their Electric delivery vehicle in Ontario. Looks like a Ford Transit, with better range.
> This is really good news for them, not so great for Tesla, which hasn't been working on the commercial market.


Yes, Tesla is quaking in their boots. This one will really be the Tesla killer.


----------



## MrBlackhill

I still find it funny as I recall Musk saying in May 2020 that Tesla was overvalued. Then, he just sh*t up and enjoyed the ride to the first position as the wealthiest on Earth, laughing out loud as the stock is now 6x its May 2020 price. He can play with us fools as much as he wants and still make 6x in a few months. Think about it, Tesla's CEO told publicly that the stock was overvalued. That kind of statement from a CEO should usually be harmful for the stock. It went down the day after, yet it's now at 6x. Let just the market valuate TSLA as high as they wish.

See the case with Blackberry doing a press release because it can't justify their stock's 150% soar in a month. It makes no sense that companies must now tell "investors" to calm down.

The distinction between "disruptive" and "speculative" is very thin. At some point, the rise of a so called "disruptive" stock will enter the "speculative" zone once the valuation gets higher and higher.

Look at Acuity Ads. When will the potentially disruptive Illumin enter the speculative zone? That stock has been soaring more than +1300% in a year.

If we have no means to valuate disruptive stocks, then does that make them speculative?

Cathie Wood may be convincing about how bullish she his on Tesla, but her job is also to sell us her ARK ETFs. My spouse saw one of her video where Cathie Wood talks with a genomics expert and she told me that Cathie's questions and comments show that she's totally clueless about genomics. How clueless is she about other industries, like Tesla? You know, when you're good at marketing and selling, when someone starts getting excited about something, you just continue reinforcing their beliefs as much as you can, you manipulate the momentum of his emotions.

It's not because the bet Cathie made in 2019 about Tesla turned out well that it'll continue in the future. That's like the bearish people saying the market will crash until the market truly crashes and then saying "told ya". It's not because it happened once that it's now a hero.

Also, why do you think Cathie is opening a space ETF? She's all-in with Musk's influence.

ARKK has been there since 2014 and it's been a hero only in 2017 and 2020. But those years were so great that it made ARKK a good investment choice, even though the performance is inconsistent. Let's just say it's the volatility of disruptive innovation and as long as there's more upside volatility, it's a good option.

That being said, I'd buy ARKK, but I'm aware of these risks.

Though I wouldn't buy TSLA at this point. I'd let it cool off from its amazing year and see if it stabilizes. Earnings in 1 day.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Everyone has this, you say?
> 
> Sounds like someone who hasn't tried the products on offer.


Yes, all the major automakers have electric vehicles.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Investing 101, easy money for the ultra-wealthy:

Buy a stock
Send a Tweet "I love this stock"
Stock soars
Sell the stock or send another Tweet
Repeat


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> ARKK has been there since 2014 and it's been a hero only in 2017 and 2020. But those years were so great that it made ARKK a good investment choice, even though the performance is inconsistent. Let's just say it's the volatility of disruptive innovation and as long as there's more upside volatility, it's a good option.


I came across ARKK and Cathie Wood first because of their presence in crypto. Another day years ago I noticed Elon Musk replying to her on Twitter (one of like 100 people he follows). Again this was several years ago. Few days ago a colleague mentioned her and suddenly I'm seeing her mentioned everywhere I look

She seems to ignore short term noise and look +10 years out. Some people have a knack or intuition for disruptive big picture long term potentials without worrying about the smaller details. Rather than analyzing bloomberg terminals in cubicles like everyone else she brainstorm with likeminded investors and send them to network with the industry

I always seem to get excited for things +10 years before they become mainstream. I try to bounce thoughts off others but the vast majority of people can't see that far. It made me second guess myself and miss out on huge investments. Once I stopped listening to all the naysayers it eventually comes to fruition

The best investments like this start out very slow with little interest. Especially if everyone else disagrees because they have blinders on or simply don't have the long term vision. She hasn't wavered from her investments for a long time it's not like she jumped on the bandwagon with the masses at the end


----------



## MrBlackhill

GameStop (GME), or how to become a millionaire within 6 months.

Up +90% so far for today only.
Up +3575% in 6 months. That's nearly 37x.

When you think the bubble is about to burst, but then the stock goes +90% the next day...


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> GameStop (GME), or how to become a millionaire within 6 months.


Yes, incredible move today.

So here's the question. Why would you bother with any dumb old index based investing technique, even TQQQ which will only make you a few percent a year.

Why bother with any of that when you can just buy GameStop and make all your profits in one day?


----------



## james4beach

Should be noted that all major media outlets, CNBC etc were talking a ton about GameStop yesterday. So overnight, many greedy speculators were waiting to pile into the stock today.

But you can see in BB that the speculating public completely gave up on their idea of pushing BB up again. So to really "trade" this kind of strategy, you would have to be very on top of which hot themes are in play. You'd have to monitor all the message forums, monitor the media, watch the options activity, and then actively adjust your trading.

It's not necessarily that easy to jump on GameStop. The same thing could have happened to BB. How would you know where to deploy your capital?

Wouldn't you already have been fully invested in TSLA, PLUG, FCEL, BLDP when the GameStop story appeared? This isn't so easy.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> Yes, incredible move today.
> 
> So here's the question. Why would you bother with any dumb old index based investing technique, even TQQQ which will only make you a few percent a year.
> 
> Why bother with any of that when you can just buy GameStop and make all your profits in one day?


Stock market lottery. Catch the rocket while it's rising before it starts dropping back into the ocean.

I don't have the experience yet to catch those epic momentum trades. Maybe small ones, but not those one. When I see a stock soaring +500% in 6 months, I'm tempted but then I tell myself "it can't go any higher, you'll buy and it'll start dropping, too much downside". And then it goes to +800%. Then +1100%. Then +1500%. Then...


----------



## MrBlackhill

I believe there are no technical indicators to help... Or is there? GME's RSI is at 96, almost topping the upper limit of that indicator.


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Stock market lottery. Catch the rocket while it's rising before it starts dropping back into the ocean.


It's an interesting concept and I'm fascinated by stuff like this too. But it would be a whole art & skill in itself.

I've also invested through different phases of the market and I see another problem with this. This kind of approach might be working for the last couple of months, but we're in a very bullish market with speculative manias happening right now.

The market isn't always like that. Especially in a bear or sideways market, those kinds of things don't happen. I vividly remember times in the market in the early 2000s when it seemed like any potentially hot stock you looked at would immediately start crashing. The strength was non existent, and no speculators were willing to keep pumping things higher.

And the last time I remember seeing conditions like today's were maybe around 2004-2005.

So let's say it's feasible (today) to chase some bubble stocks as they shoot higher. These conditions are probably quite rare in the big scheme of things. So I don't see how you can really act on that for long-term investment.

I realize @MrBlackhill you said somewhere earlier (I think) that your focus isn't long term investment but short term gains? If so, this kind of thing might be up your alley.

But for me, I'm concerned with long term investment and getting steady returns over decades. I don't see any viable way to sit around waiting for conditions like these to occur. Does that mean I'd do passive investing in other periods, and then suddenly abandon all that and start jumping into speculative manias when they occur once every 10 years? Just doesn't seem viable to me.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> I realize @MrBlackhill you said somewhere earlier (I think) that your focus isn't long term investment but short term


I'm long term, but if I can make money fast I'll be able to retire soon so it'll be short term. (I'm just joking...)

I plan (or hope) to keep most of my stocks on the long term. I currently have only two stocks I know I'll dump after I feel I'm done with their recovery. Also, since I have a lot of exposure to small caps, I'll certainly dump some losers from time to time.

If ever I feel comfortable with some momentum plays, I may try my skills on stocks I'd hold for only a few months, but I don't think I'll have enough free time to work on that strategy, so I just plan to go long and reassess every few months that everything is still on the right track.

Or maybe I should sell my whole portfolio, buy GME and retire in 6 months? Seems like a good retirement plan! (Joking)


----------



## MrBlackhill

Ok, wow... After a +92.71% in a day, GME is already currently at +52.11% after market.

I'm very curious to witness the outcome of that stock and even more curious about WHEN.


----------



## MrBlackhill

I'd be interested by the patterns. Not sure if there's some advanced technical trader among us.

Look at GME (1-month) and look at AT.TO (6-month), they were both rising fast, then they spiked and dropped back, but then continued. Some say that as long as the stock makes higher highs and higher lows, it's bullish. That's what happened.


----------



## R. Austin

So at what point do I short GME and then retire by 30?


----------



## MrBlackhill

Seems like some people have a sense for this. "Big Short" investor made millions from GME.









'Big Short' investor Michael Burry made a 1,500% gain on GameStop during its Reddit-fueled rally


The Scion Asset Management chief's investment ballooned in value from $17 million to as high as $271 million in under four months.




markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Ok, wow... After a +92.71% in a day, GME is already currently at +52.11% after market.


This has got to be tempting to many people, to join the craziness. AMC is also up 40% after hours.

The correct trade might be to jump on Cineplex CGX *now*, before the speculators and pumpers all pounce on it.


----------



## R. Austin

BB has been pumped up by Reddit users a lot recently too. You basically just need to dump your money in a few random stocks and pray they come for that one next. 
It reminds me of BTC and Crypto a few years ago, when people started taking out loans to buy it.


----------



## Tostig

MrBlackhill said:


> Investing 101, easy money for the ultra-wealthy:
> 
> Buy a stock
> Send a Tweet "I love this stock"
> Stock soars
> Sell the stock or send another Tweet
> Repeat


A person who shall not be named, also known for his number, 45, also used to tweet alot. If you can filter out all his noise, you would have been able to make a lot of money based on his market manipulation.


----------



## james4beach

Matt Levine has a nice Bloomberg column discussing GameStop and Reddit.

He outlines this hypothetical, honest pump & dump where there is no deception, no fake news, no insider information.

I show up on Reddit and say “hey let’s pump GameStop.”
We all buy GameStop, knowing that we’re just doing it for the pump, with no real or fake catalyst for the stock to go up.
It goes up, because we bought a lot of it.
Other people see us doing this, _read my Reddit post, know we are pumping the stock_, and also buy it, *because we seem to be having fun, and they like fun too.*
Eventually some of us get bored and start selling and the price collapses.

But nobody really knows what's going on with GME and BB. There could be more nefarious activity and the SEC could pursue it.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

m3s said:


> She seems to ignore short term noise and look +10 years out. Some people have a knack or intuition for disruptive big picture long term potentials without worrying about the smaller details.


In 1998 Catherine joined Tupelo Capital where she became a portfolio manager. I was reading somewhere that her fund lost like 80% in 2000.
I don’t know about her intuition that time. Now she is 65 years old and for some reason no one heard about her before.


----------



## m3s

Ukrainiandude said:


> I was reading somewhere that her fund lost like 80% in 2000. I don’t know about her intuition that time.


10 years later techs stocks are all the rage.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

m3s said:


> 10 years later techs stocks are all the rage.


I don’t think tech stocks performed particularly well 2000-2010 (10 years later). And who knows what was in her portfolio, some tech stocks have never reached their 2000 highs.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

MrBlackhill said:


> My spouse saw one of her video where Cathie Wood talks with a genomics expert and she told me that Cathie's questions and comments show that she's totally clueless about genomics.


 In her defence, she has a team of analysts who are more experts in particular fields, from what I gather. I don’t think CEO needs to have a PhD in genetics to invest in it.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Ukrainiandude said:


> In her defence, she has a team of analysts who are more experts in particular fields, from what I gather. I don’t think CEO needs to have a PhD in genetics to invest in it.


True, but I'm just wondering why her team of experts didn't back her with some decent questions preparation for that interview with a PhD in genomics instead of looking like a fool to the eyes of those who have a deeper understanding of that field.

But I'm a bit harsh with CEOs, I'll give you that.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Wow. AMC was already pumping after hours from $5 to $7, but it wasn't enough, so Musk tweeted "AMC Next." at 7 PM and then it continue up to over $8. AMC up nearly +66% after hours.

Is Musk trying to pump stocks out of their fundamentals so that TSLA's valuation seem fair?

Are we truly living in a new world of stock investing where social media influencers can so easily manipulate the market?


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Wow. AMC was already pumping after hours from $5 to $7, but it wasn't enough, so Musk tweeted "AMC Next." at 7 PM and then it continue up to over $8. AMC up nearly +66% after hours.
> 
> Is Musk trying to pump stocks out of their fundamentals so that TSLA's valuation seem fair?
> 
> Are we truly living in a new world of stock investing where social media influencers can so easily manipulate the market?


I think Musk is generally a bit crazy.


----------



## MrBlackhill

AMC at more than +200% pre-market.










Edit: Over +300%


----------



## m3s

Hitlist

GameStop (GME)
BlackBerry (BB) 
C3.Ai (AI)
Nokia (NOK)
Palantir (PLTR)
AMC (AMC)
Alcoa (AA)
Silvergate Capital (SI)
DuPont (DD) 
Bed Bath & Beyond


----------



## sags

Also, some Redditors are researching hedge fund company positions and listing all the stocks they are shorting.

They are "targeting" individual hedge funds.

Hedge funds lost $5 billion yesterday. The carnage continues and there may be fund collapses.

One person said......populism on social media has spilled over from politics to finances.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Also, some Redditors are researching hedge fund company positions and listing all the stocks they are shorting.
> 
> They are "targeting" individual hedge funds.
> 
> Hedge funds lost $5 billion yesterday. The carnage continues and there may be fund collapses.
> 
> One person said......populism on social media has spilled over from politics to finances.


This is going to end badly for those involved.
1. It will increase volatility, 
2. The activist agitators will lose a lot of money. << Self correcting problem IMO.
I hope it doesn't spill over.

Personally I like that hedge funds exist, though I don't invest in them.

The biggest fear is that there will be a call for regulation.
At the end of the day, I own my stocks, and I'm happy with the corporate performance. If someone wants to overpay, or sell me those stocks for political reasons, that's just fine by me.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> One person said......populism on social media has spilled over from politics to finances.


I think they are just feeding that line to people to excite them, and feeding the egos of people who "want to screw Wall Street"

There is no question that large traders and hedge funds have positions in these stocks. As I mentioned earlier, Jim Cramer was actively pumping some of the electric vehicle stocks himself.

In any case, I hope Canadian investors like the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan are smart enough to start dumping some of their BB shares to the insane crowds. Teachers is up $400 million over a couple months due to this.

Cineplex seems to have started rallying too.


----------



## james4beach

All of what we're seeing now are the consequence of 12 years of aggressive central bank stimulus, including massive stimulus at the start of COVID.

Nobody has any fear. This is all a pretty natural consequence to the conditions created by central banks.

Now we've got a complete casino atmosphere. Stocks can't ever go down, and the Federal Reserve will never let them go down. Interest rates won't ever go up. I expect more craziness... bitcoin is part of that whole story too, just an 'unregulated speculation stock' actually.


----------



## KaeJS

I think this is all bullshit and it more or less goes against everything I have ever learned about finance and markets.

However, I bought AMC and NOK calls earlier.
The gains are wayyyy too high to ignore compared to the risks involved.

Patiently waiting to buy puts on GME. But I'm scared the run isn't over yet. Especially not when $320 Calls for March cost $200....


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> I think this is all bullshit and it more or less goes against everything I have ever learned about finance and markets.
> 
> However, I bought AMC and NOK calls earlier.
> The gains are wayyyy too high to ignore compared to the risks involved.


They are reasonable trades to make, for an active trader.

I suggest you decide on an exit strategy though. These stocks won't go up forever.


----------



## Money172375

Numerous Online brokers had short term outages today, I experienced it first hand with TDDI. Good luck getting through to them by phone if this mania continues. I’m sure new account openings are through the roof. 

I've said before......in 20 years of retail banking....when there‘s a spike in new accounts at discount brokers......there’s likely a bubble.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> I've said before......in 20 years of retail banking....when there‘s a spike in new accounts at discount brokers......there’s likely a bubble.


There's no question this is a bubble. It's always a question of how long it can last.

My guess is that many of the people getting into these stocks will, ultimately, *never* invest again. Not after what Mr Market is about to do to them.


----------



## Money172375

__





CityNews







toronto.citynews.ca


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CityNews
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.citynews.ca


Playing computer games would be much healthier. Sigh.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Playing computer games would be much healthier. Sigh.


Oh yeah.

FYI the epic store actually puts out first rate games free.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Oh yeah.
> 
> FYI the epic store actually puts out first rate games free.


Do you know of any good Epic games that run on linux?

I'm really not up to speed with computer games today. I'd like to get back into it, but I have too much work on my hands (which I am thankful for)

But a few years ago, I was pretty addicted to FPS games like Wolfenstein Enemy Territory, and then later AssaultCube. It was pretty great.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CityNews
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.citynews.ca


This is really very interesting, and shows some sad, unintended consequences of the pandemic.

Way more drinking and alcoholism. And apparently, more gambling too (stock & option gambling).

We also know there has been more domestic abuse. Also, more breakups and divorces.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> This is really very interesting, and shows some sad, unintended consequences of the pandemic.


There's good and bad in everything.

A lot of people have discovered investing, a lot of people have discovered how to invest by themselves.

It can be for the better or the worse.

I'm personally very grateful for the pandemic.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

The US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unveiled on Wednesday that it opted to keep key interest rates unchanged at the targeted range of 0.00-0.25%
something besides stocks also growing bigger and bigger.
20% of total corporate debt so far.


----------



## R. Austin

What a world we live in...


----------



## MrBlackhill

Timeline









In 11 Hours of Pure Mania, 100% Stock Gains Popped Up Everywhere


America’s new band of day traders is frantically bidding up a wide range of fringe, oddball stocks.




www.bloombergquint.com


----------



## Juggernaut92

I bought 15 BB.TO stocks(for a total of $92) in my margin account 4 months ago. I just bought it because I heard they were working on security on autonomous and smart cars. I just bought it as a gamble because it was under $100. I can say that I saw it going up to maybe $10/share in a year or two but not this lol. I may just sell a few shares to recoup the initial investment and then see where the price of the rest of it goes.


----------



## james4beach

I just saw a very interesting analysis. This was posted by Ben Felix on his podcast message forum. This is the best explanation I've seen so far, about what's been going on with GameStop and AMC.









Semantic Density, Algos & Gamestop: This Time It's Different | ETF Trends


This isn't really another article about the weird trading activity in Gamestop (GME). Yes, it's nutty what's happening, and I have answered far more questions from reporters about Gamma, Delta, market maker hedging and day trading than I ever have in any one-week period of my life.




www.etftrends.com





The reddit people think they're doing something unique by pumping stocks with high short interest. However, message forums have been pumping stocks for a very long time. It's not a new thing at all, and is pretty much as old as internet message forums themselves (since late 90s).

But this author points out something that's new: social media and their algorithms.

He observes that TikTok was endorsing GameStop videos. Reddit was elevating the exciting GameStop posts. So was Robinhood itself, since the Robinhood platform (game) shows exciting teasers for what other people are doing. These algorithms are designed to find exciting, emotional things that hook people.

On my own Youtube, I also kept seeing GameStop bull cases. I was ignoring them, but they were in my recommended videos of the last few days.

The theory is that social media algorithms dramatically amplified the stock-pumping, much like they amplify nutty political content. This resulted in mass marketing of the GameStop & AMC buy endorsements, reaching a massive audience across multiple social media platforms.


----------



## james4beach

Does anyone here know of any "avatar" kind of software for social media, something which can create a fake person (an agent) which browses and navigates through social media, doing human-like activities such as liking videos and responding/browsing emotionally? It would be best if the bot can be tuned to act like a millennial.

A key thing to making this work is having a bot which acts like a real person. Not to go out searching for stock content (that misses the whole point) but rather to do other social media stuff in a typical fashion.

I'm sure hedge funds are already doing this, but I'm wondering what happens if you run such a bot and analyze all the content it sees. Mine the content for anything financial, such as Bitcoin, crypto coinz, or stock symbols.

Then have the software alert you when it sees repeated exposure to something. I bet this would have picked up GME and AMC at a pretty early stage, and I bet these will not be the last.

You could even hook the social media avatar (meme detector) to automated trading, like through the Interactive Brokers API, to automatically buy. You could enhance that automated trading by scaling back the positions if the memes fade away, or increase the positions (exponentially) if the meme picks up steam, to front-run the herd.

I bet we'll get more like GameStop. The great thing is that, as more hedge funds build the system I describe above, they will only amplify the effect further... resulting in extremely powerful market action based on emotion-driven algorithms.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> a bot which acts like a real person


There's no such thing. Acting like a real person means acting with humane emotions.


----------



## james4beach

TDDI has posted this notice about the bubble stocks. They are not allowing margin loans against these holdings. Good precautions of course.


*Effective immediately, we have increased margin requirements to 100% and restricted short selling and uncovered options trading for GameStop (NYSE: GME), Express Inc. (NYSE: EXPR), and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC).*


I wasn't aware of EXPR. Looks like it was up 214% yesterday. I think TDDI is giving us the nod to pile into EXPR... it must be intended to be a hot stock tip.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Do you know of any good Epic games that run on linux?
> 
> I'm really not up to speed with computer games today. I'd like to get back into it, but I have too much work on my hands (which I am thankful for)
> 
> But a few years ago, I was pretty addicted to FPS games like Wolfenstein Enemy Territory, and then later AssaultCube. It was pretty great.


i've been using primarily Linux since the early 90's.
Steam does Linux games, Epic does not.

I game on windows & PS3/PS5 & Wii/Switch (I skip a generation on gaming consoles, because the playability doesn't change much )


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> There's no such thing. Acting like a real person means acting with humane emotions.


Not quite.

GPT3 stuff is pretty convincing.
Acting is acting.

Decide to project an emotion, then manifest the cues to that emotion. 
No emotion needs to be felt.


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> Hitlist
> 
> GameStop (GME)
> BlackBerry (BB)
> C3.Ai (AI)
> Nokia (NOK)
> Palantir (PLTR)
> AMC (AMC)
> Alcoa (AA)
> Silvergate Capital (SI)
> DuPont (DD)
> Bed Bath & Beyond


There are more, though these are relatively small market caps

EXPR (up 214% yesterday)
KOSS (up 480% yesterday)
NAKD (up 252% yesterday and 114% premarket)

Maybe it's time to create a pure bubble portfolio? Perhaps 1 share each of
GME, BB, AMC, EXPR, KOSS, NAKD

For the above, yesterday's gain was 235%
And today's pre-market gain is +43%

We all know that diversification is key lol


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Maybe it's time to create a pure bubble portfolio? Perhaps 1 share each of
> GME, BB, AMC, EXPR, KOSS, NAKD
> 
> For the above, yesterday's gain was 235%
> And today's pre-market gain is +43%
> 
> We all know that diversification is key lol


Lottery tickets have better odds


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Lottery tickets have better odds


I'm not sure, actually. There's a momentum effect here. I think the odds with these stocks is better than a lottery ticket. I could see a single day gamble being a worthwhile effort, but I wouldn't want to hold more than a day.

I wouldn't do it though. I already used up my gambling budget (bitcoin & bombardier) so I have no room for more of this nonsense.


----------



## james4beach

Wow things might be getting more interesting! It looks like American Airlines, AAL is up 37% pre-market.

This might be the first significant company to catch the bug. The sector fund, JETS, is already up 7% premarket which is a massive move.

What do you think, will American Airlines double in price today? Or maybe 3x?


----------



## james4beach

Found some spare USD cash under the couch cushion.

I just bought 25 shares of AAL (American Airlines) at 21.59 ... let's see what happens. This is about as large as my Bitcoin gamble.

My idea here is that it's moving like crazy, so there's a chance people might be piling into it, but this one didn't move like crazy in the preceding days so it may be fresh enough to ride the pump.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Not quite.
> 
> GPT3 stuff is pretty convincing.
> Acting is acting.
> 
> Decide to project an emotion, then manifest the cues to that emotion.
> No emotion needs to be felt.


An AI doesn't know what is an emotion and why. Sure, it can repeat the cues. It won't ever repeat the evolution of the behaviour the same way a human would.

The AI trying to mimic humane behaviour on YouTube will just base itself on its own "understanding" from the aggregated information it has collected from its "learning". _It may work out good enough for a simple test, sure._

AI learning has many pitfalls simply because it's not the same kind of intelligence.

Where AI will fail, human will succeed.
Where AI will succeed, human will fail.

Humans have pitfalls, AI have pitfalls, and their understanding is totally different so the way they complete a task is totally different.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> An AI doesn't know what is an emotion and why. Sure, it can repeat the cues. It won't ever repeat the evolution of the behaviour the same way a human would.
> 
> The AI trying to mimic humane behaviour on YouTube will just base itself on its own "understanding" from the aggregated information it has collected from its "learning". _It may work out good enough for a simple test, sure._
> 
> AI learning has many pitfalls simply because it's not the same kind of intelligence.
> 
> Where AI will fail, human will succeed.
> Where AI will succeed, human will fail.
> 
> Humans have pitfalls, AI have pitfalls, and their understanding is totally different so the way they complete a task is totally different.


Have you ever watched kids learn to interact?
They start out mimicing behaviour, and many people revert to that in situations they don't know what's going on.

I think social referencing is more at play than people think.
In fact, mirroring and other "cheats" can be used to connect to people.


----------



## james4beach

Well, TDDI is down. Good thing I bought my stupid bubble stock before they went offline.

Probably lots of other people trying to buy other stupid bubble mania stocks too.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Have you ever watched kids learn to interact?
> They start out mimicing behaviour, and many people revert to that in situations they don't know what's going on.
> 
> I think social referencing is more at play than people think.
> In fact, mirroring and other "cheats" can be used to connect to people.


I've worked a lot with AI and I can just tell that you cannot compare AI learning to kids learning.

AI can sure give an illusion to some extent, but no more.

You are still referring to the acting part in social interactions, but that's just a small part of the human behaviour.

We try to understand humans with the Johari window. It helps understanding relationships and behaviours. That Johari window won't ever apply to AI.


----------



## agent99

Is there a Bubble ETF yet?


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> I've worked a lot with AI and I can just tell that you cannot compare AI learning to kids learning.
> 
> AI can sure give an illusion to some extent, but no more.
> 
> You are still referring to the acting part in social interactions, but that's just a small part of the human behaviour.
> 
> We try to understand humans with the Johari window. It helps understanding relationships and behaviours. That Johari window won't ever apply to AI.


You are glancing on my point.

AI can act like a human.
You say they can "give an illusion", an illusion is all acting is.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> AI can act like a human.
> You say they can "give an illusion", an illusion is all acting is.


You would know, I'm sure.

Given your posting history I'm not surprised you mentioned GPT3


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> You would know, I'm sure.
> 
> Given your posting history I'm not surprised you mentioned GPT3


Not sure if that was a slight accusing me of being an AI. Of course take an intro philosophy course and debate if you're a brain in a bucket, or not.









A robot wrote this entire article. Are you scared yet, human? | GPT-3


We asked GPT-3, OpenAI’s powerful new language generator, to write an essay for us from scratch. The assignment? To convince us robots come in peace




www.theguardian.com





Well I can read and that article is about as well (or better) "thought out" than most articles


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> You say they can "give an illusion", an illusion is all acting is.


Depends how good the illusion really is. And depends how good the illusion has to be. Acting is just one behaviour, meant to try to mimic other behaviours.



MrMatt said:


> Not sure if that was a slight accusing me of being an AI. Of course take an intro philosophy course and debate if you're a brain in a bucket, or not.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A robot wrote this entire article. Are you scared yet, human? | GPT-3
> 
> 
> We asked GPT-3, OpenAI’s powerful new language generator, to write an essay for us from scratch. The assignment? To convince us robots come in peace
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Well I can read and that article is about as well (or better) "thought out" than most articles


It wrote that article because it was designed to, programmed to and asked to. And they took the single best result. It has no intent to communicate something. Humans write articles on their own willing to communicate and express themselves, their ideas, opinions and feelings.

Intelligence is consciousness and free will.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Intelligence is consciousness and free will.


You're getting into a major philosophical discussion at this point.
It's an interesting discussion if free will exists, or it's just the illusion of free will.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> You're getting into a major philosophical discussion at this point.
> It's an interesting discussion if free will exists, or it's just the illusion of free will.


Yeah, I agree, I'm getting too deep and indeed free will is an interesting discussion.


----------



## james4beach

There are reports that Robinhood is drawing from liquidity lines.

Could mean Robinhood is at risk of collapse, with their unhinged margin speculators run amok. Memories of Refco and Opes Prime. There's no way to predict this kind of thing of course (without insider knowledge) but Robinhood is definitely a high risk brokerage.

This will be interesting to watch. I'd say this brokerage is at high risk of collapse, considering it runs on a shoestring budget, is totally overloaded with insane speculators, lots of margin lending, plus various bugs in their platform that are exploited to use more margin. Not to mention their gamblers addicted to options, probably with naked strategies too.

The extreme volatility is dangerous for *all* brokerages. Keep in mind that brokers do not maintain 1:1 allocation of real shares to positions in client accounts. Nor do brokers actually keep (segregated) cash on the books. The "cash" shown in accounts is a liability of the brokerage to you; the actual cash is used by the broker for their business operations, and is gone, a long time ago.

And when huge numbers of shares are moving in & out, those shares you see in the account also may not really exist.

For example the Reddit guy showing $13 million cash in his account, in reality has no cash. Since Robinhood is drawing liquidity lines, it's clear they don't have the cash, and that $13 million is a liability of Robinhood. Whether the gambler will ever collect on it, is another question.

These Reddit gamblers have no clue what game they're playing.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Lots of fun in the market...


----------



## james4beach

Forget Gamestop and AMC, those are old news. Bo-oring.

Now social media is abuzz about Dogecoin. It's a krypto koin based on a dog meme. It looks like it's up 5x to maybe 6x (six fold) since yesterday.

Reddit is pumping DOGECOIN as we speak. Their reddit forums are instructing members on how to vote and share the posts so that the social media algorithms pick up the story and amplify the pump. The are all sharing information on how to buy their DOGECOIN through Robinhood.

Elon Musk has also previously pumped it. Millennials and degenerate gamblers are scrambling to all get on board.

Once Robinhood stopped trading on GME, the price on Bitcoin and Dogecoin started shooting up like crazy.

lol you can't make this stuff up. Just in case any of you actually believed that Reddit/Robinhood gamblers are some kind of elaborate social movement or establishing a new world order.

They're just degenerate, dopamine-seeking gamblers.


----------



## off.by.10

james4beach said:


> Keep in mind that brokers do not maintain 1:1 allocation of real shares to positions in client accounts.


Huhhh what? That's not what my statements claim. I don't have margin though so perhaps that's what you are referring to?



james4beach said:


> The "cash" shown in accounts is a liability of the brokerage to you; the actual cash is used by the broker for their business operations, and is gone, a long time ago.


Indeed, that part is clearly spelled out. Keeping cash in a Robinhood account is likely worse than keeping it on a bitcoin exchange these days. I doubt many read the fine print though.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Forget Gamestop and AMC, those are old news. Bo-oring.
> 
> Now social media is abuzz about Dogecoin. It's a krypto koin based on a dog meme. It looks like it's up 5x to maybe 6x (six fold) since yesterday.


The fact that you're using K for crypto is suggetive..

If you think it's a silly meme coin you're missing the point.
It's a social coin, also the way it work with Litecoin was a very interesting technical development at the time.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> The extreme volatility is dangerous for *all* brokerages. Keep in mind that brokers do not maintain 1:1 allocation of real shares to positions in client accounts. Nor do brokers actually keep (segregated) cash on the books. The "cash" shown in accounts is a liability of the brokerage to you; the actual cash is used by the broker for their business operations, and is gone, a long time ago.


My TDDI account statements clearly state that my stock is "SEG"


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> My TDDI account statements clearly state that my stock is "SEG"


It's certainly good when a position is segregated. But it doesn't quite mean what you think it means, in the context of broker insolvency. It's described in this thread along with a link to the CIPF which explains this









Rehypothecation Risk In A Margin Account


"If you are using margin, your broker has the right to lend your securities, up to the amount borrowed. Brokers who are members of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) are required to segregate all fully paid securities. Conversely, if any of your securities are not fully paid, the...




www.canadianmoneyforum.com





If TDDI collapses and it turns out they have a shortfall of shares in aggregate across all accounts, YOU will share in the loss. The loss/shortfall is shared equally among all customers, whether or not their positions were marked as segregated. It's directly spelled out in the CIPF link from that other discussion.

So my original statement was correct. The sad thing here is that if the broker collapses, the fact you saw "SEG" in your statements does not mean that you are free and clear of suffering losses. As brokerage customers, we all hope that TDDI is reasonably close to the 1:1 allocation of shares.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> It's certainly good when a position is segregated. But it doesn't quite mean what you think it means, in the context of broker insolvency. It's described in this thread along with a link to the CIPF which explains this
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rehypothecation Risk In A Margin Account
> 
> 
> "If you are using margin, your broker has the right to lend your securities, up to the amount borrowed. Brokers who are members of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) are required to segregate all fully paid securities. Conversely, if any of your securities are not fully paid, the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.canadianmoneyforum.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If TDDI collapses and it turns out they have a shortfall of shares in aggregate across all accounts, YOU will share in the loss. The loss/shortfall is shared equally among all customers, whether or not their positions were marked as segregated. It's directly spelled out in the CIPF link from that other discussion.
> 
> So my original statement was correct. The sad thing here is that if the broker collapses, the fact you saw "SEG" in your statements does not mean that you are free and clear of suffering losses. As brokerage customers, we all hope that TDDI is reasonably close to the 1:1 allocation of shares.


Brokers who are members of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) are required to segregate all fully paid securities.
As far as I know, TDDI does not have the legal right to loan my shares.


It's crazy that a brokerage can still lose your shares, I didn't know this and I'm going to be putting a proposal to my MP and the minister of finance to get this fixed.

It is absolutely nuts that the brokerage might be able to loan out and lose my assets.

I honestly (and apparently) naively thought if I had a cash account, and fully paid for my stock, it was mine. Like 100% mine and nobody could take it, or lend it or lose it.

Now I see why people still keep cash under their mattress, and it makes the idea of cryptocurrencies that I OWN even more appealing.
If my wallet says I own bitcoin, I own it, apparently unlike anything in the custody of the financial industry.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> It's crazy that a brokerage can still lose your shares, I didn't know this and I'm going to be putting a proposal to my MP and the minister of finance to get this fixed.
> 
> It is absolutely nuts that the brokerage might be able to loan out and lose my assets.
> 
> I honestly (and apparently) naively thought if I had a cash account, and fully paid for my stock, it was mine. Like 100% mine and nobody could take it, or lend it or lose it.
> 
> Now I see why people still keep cash under their mattress, and it makes the idea of cryptocurrencies that I OWN even more appealing.
> If my wallet says I own bitcoin, I own it, apparently unlike anything in the custody of the financial industry.


All good points, and I want this to be a stronger protection as well.

It's one reason I go with the largest, most reliable brokerages (only big banks). I can't imagine ever taking a risk on smaller ones.

I have much more confidence in TDDI or RBC's management of these positions, and making sure they actually have the stock holdings, than with a smaller brokerage.

You CAN make a stock position completely yours by transferring to a physical stock certificate, which moves it from street name to your name. It becomes truly in your name and immune to losses. On the other hand, there are extra costs in doing that and it will be a pain if you ever want to sell it.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> You CAN make a stock position completely yours by transferring to a physical stock certificate, which moves it from street name to your
> name. It becomes truly in your name and immune to losses. On the other hand, there are extra costs in doing that and it will be a pain if you ever want to sell it.


What do you think happens if everyone tried to transfer their stocks to a physical certificate??

What if I told you that this is exactly how crypto works except you can use decentralized exchanges to trade easier. You can also provide liquidity to the decentralized exchanges to earn income that these brokers are currently earning off your idle shares instead of you

Give it 5-10 years and stocks should be tokenized on blockchains


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> What do you think happens if everyone tried to transfer their stocks to a physical certificate??


The short sellers would get squeezed.



> Give it 5-10 years and stocks should be tokenized on blockchains


What happens when someone misplaces the keys?


----------



## birdman

MrMatt said:


> Brokers who are members of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) are required to segregate all fully paid securities.
> As far as I know, TDDI does not have the legal right to loan my shares.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It is absolutely nuts that the brokerage might be able to loan out and lose my assets.
> 
> I honestly (and apparently) naively thought if I had a cash account, and fully paid for my stock, it was mine. Like 100% mine and nobody could take it, or lend it or lose it.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> What happens when someone misplaces the keys?


Yea we need social keys (can be recovered by x trusted guardians) Otherwise you can always pay for professional custody (should be distinct from an exchange employing "your" assets for liquidity)


----------



## birdman

MrMatt said:


> Brokers who are members of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) are required to segregate all fully paid securities.
> As far as I know, TDDI does not have the legal right to loan my shares.
> 
> 
> It's crazy that a brokerage can still lose your shares, I didn't know this and I'm going to be putting a proposal to my MP and the minister of finance to get this fixed.
> 
> It is absolutely nuts that the brokerage might be able to loan out and lose my assets.
> 
> I honestly (and apparently) naively thought if I had a cash account, and fully paid for my stock, it was mine. Like 100% mine and nobody could take it, or lend it or lose it.
> 
> Now I see why people still keep cash under their mattress, and it makes the idea of cryptocurrencies that I OWN even more appealing.
> If my wallet says I own bitcoin, I own it, apparently unlike anything in the custody of the financial industry.


The same thing applies to financial institutions. The funds you have on deposit with them and show on your monthly statement is not really there as probably 85% of deposits are loaned out or invested.


----------



## james4beach




----------



## doctrine

I have been in the reflation/re-opening trade since basically last May. This particular bubble has been pushing those stocks down, but it has been coming in waves with 3-4 peaks followed by pullbacks. We are on the cusp of returning to reality with literally billions of vaccines under production today which will virtually eliminate the possibility of serious illness and hospitalization. The bubble fad may continue but I'll stay in my reopening stocks, thanks. 

There is great value with stocks still near or below book value. The alternate is sometimes 30-50 times book value. There has rarely been this type of barbell situation occurring. But it did exist in 1999-2000. Value stocks did very well over those next 5-10 years.


----------



## m3s

doctrine said:


> Value stocks did very well over those next 5-10 years.


I have a feeling emerging markets will perform well in this period. A pandemic is just another day in the park for them. They have always dealt with hardships and crisis. Weaker USD could be huge for them


----------



## james4beach

I don't want to alarm anyone, but Dogecoin has crashed 60% since its Friday peak. There's an outcry from Reddit investors who invested in the joke coin.

It will be interesting to see which worthless security the Reddit army piles into next. Surely we are witnessing a revolution in how financial markets operate! lol

Will they buy more GameStop? Some other worthless company? Or the old favourites, some random crypto currency that has no practical use and which was created out of thin air?

With at least 3,000 different crypto coins out there, there's no shortage of things they can pump.


----------



## m3s

So the meme coin is doing exactly what you'd expect a meme coin to do?

What else is new


----------



## nathan79

Bought 36,000 DOGE a few years ago for $94, sold them for $1422.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

*Counterfeiting Stock 2.0*
Illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation are two of Wall Street's deep, dark secrets.
The Cover Up — The securities industry, certain “respected” members of corporate America who like the profits from illegal shorting, certain criminal elements and our federal government do not want the public to become aware of this problem.
_The reason for the cover up is money. _
*Everyone, including our elected officials, gets lots of money. *Consequently there is an active campaign to keep a lid on information. The denial about these illegal practices comes from the industry, the DTC, the SEC and certain members of Congress.


Counterfeitingstock.com


good read on how rigged the whole stock market is, it can lead to a serious blow to the investors confidence. 
would You invest in the entity run by a bunch of swindlers ?


----------



## Ukrainiandude

A lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund ... meaning I needed (a stock) down, I would create a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures. It’s a fun game and it’s a lucrative game."
"Who cares about the fundamentals? *The great thing about the market is that it has nothing to do with the actual stocks*."
- Jim Cramer, hedge fund manager from 1987-2001, Dec 2006




NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - Stock market commentator and CNBC television host Jim Cramer has raised eyebrows after describing illegal activities used by hedge fund managers to manipulate stock prices.









Jim Cramer draws fire over manipulation comments


Stock market commentator and CNBC television host Jim Cramer has raised eyebrows after describing illegal activities used by hedge fund managers to manipulate stock prices.




www.reuters.com


----------



## james4beach

nathan79 said:


> Bought 36,000 DOGE a few years ago for $94, sold them for $1422.


Congrats!



Ukrainiandude said:


> "Who cares about the fundamentals? The great thing about the market is that it has nothing to do with the actual stocks."
> - Jim Cramer,


Cramer also routinely pumps stocks on his show. He does it all the time actually. I remember when he was pumping SHLD (Sears holdings) during the last bull market. Even near the lofty heights he kept endorsing it ... no doubt benefiting personally from it. Everyone knew SHLD was a ponzi stock with very questionable fundamental value.

Fast forward a few years and Sears is bankrupt and SHLD is worthless.

More recently, Cramer has been pumping the TSLA-related stocks such as FCEL, PLUG


----------



## Ukrainiandude

james4beach said:


> TSLA-related stocks such as FCEL, PLUG


 How fuel cells stocks are Tesla related? Plug Power Inc. provides hydrogen fuel cell turnkey solutions.

*Musk calls hydrogen fuel cells 'stupid,' *
Musk hates hydrogen fuel cells. He's called them “fool cells.”


----------



## james4beach

Ukrainiandude said:


> How fuel cells stocks are Tesla related? Plug Power Inc. provides hydrogen fuel cell turnkey solutions.


The people pumping these stocks argue that they are all (including TSLA) part of a green energy / new technology / EV trade.

There is a segment of Wall Street which is endorsing all of these as the same sector. You often find them endorsed together: TSLA, FCEL, PLUG, BLDP, etc

Jim Cramer has been pumping the whole group.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Dogecoin jumps +50% after a tweet from Musk. Ridiculous. The richest man in Earth is playing games with the market.


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Dogecoin jumps +50% after a tweet from Musk. Ridiculous. The richest man in Earth is playing games with the market.


Yes. He's pumped many of them before. His giant following takes these cues from his tweets.


----------



## Thal81

I'm fine with all the stock bubble craze. Smart people will win while the not so smart will lose a fortune. It's basically natural selection. Those who lost will have learned a valuable lesson and be stronger for it.


----------



## james4beach

Thal81 said:


> I'm fine with all the stock bubble craze. Smart people will win while the not so smart will lose a fortune. It's basically natural selection. Those who lost will have learned a valuable lesson and be stronger for it.


Well I'm having more fun now too, since I went short AMC at $8.67 ... the stock is now down to $7 (when I say I went short, I mean I bought puts)


----------



## doctrine

Believe it or not but despite 60-80% drops from the high, these Reddit bubble stocks are all still overpriced - GME, BB, AMC, etc. Easily 40-50% more downside just to get to stock prices a few weeks ago.

Meanwhile, markets slowly hitting new highs. Value and growth are both doing okay and moving markets slowly higher. Sucks to be losing 60-80% in a bubble while indexers and generalists are sitting on record portfolios. Valuation and fundamentals matter, sometimes quicker in some names than others.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> Believe it or not but despite 60-80% drops from the high, these Reddit bubble stocks are all still overpriced - GME, BB, AMC, etc. Easily 40-50% more downside just to get to stock prices a few weeks ago.


Yup, that's why I'm short. I'm not sure about 50% more downside but certainly, they are headed down, as the institutions and traders unload their positions.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

doctrine said:


> Meanwhile, markets slowly hitting new highs. Value and growth are both doing okay and moving markets slowly higher.


Mother of all bubbles in creating, similar comments about immense value and exponential growth were circulating around in 1998 and 2006
growth attracts more money and that gives more growth, everyone makes a fortune in the bull market, no one wanted to invest into the stock market after 2000 and 2009 
that is basic human psychology 
History always repeats itself.


----------



## james4beach

Ukrainiandude said:


> Mother of all bubbles in creating, similar comments about immense value and exponential growth were circulating around in 1998 and 2006
> growth attracts more money and that gives more growth, everyone makes a fortune in the bull market


This actually also happened all the way to 2007 and even 2008. I remember it well because I was actively trading markets back then. Everyone was in a panic about high inflation with huge growth estimates for the world.

Note the following charts show to the dates immediately before the massive 2008 crash.

Here was how commodities looked in early 2008. Rallying like nuts, high inflation expectations:











Here were emerging markets. Absolutely on fire with high global growth estimates. Notice here that the average (trend line) is up 60% over just two years... tremendous rate of growth in emerging market stocks.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

What possibly could go wrong 😑 right?








two previous bubbles look baby daughters compared with this mother of all bubbles


----------



## james4beach

Ukrainiandude said:


> two previous bubbles look baby daughters compared with this mother of all bubbles


But remember, the market does trend upwards over time. Just because it's high and just because it's a big rally doesn't mean it's a bubble. It also doesn't mean it will revert back down to previous levels.

This is a misleading aspect of these kinds of charts because markets _do_ trend upward over time


----------



## Ukrainiandude

james4beach said:


> markets _do_ trend upward over time


They sure do.


----------



## james4beach

Ukrainiandude said:


> They sure do.


Well now you're making my argument for me... what CMF usually shoots me down for.

So I'll tell you what people tell me.

But US markets are the best! America is unique in the world, other stock markets are known to be terrible but US stocks only ever go up. Japan, Europe, South America, China are all irrelevant.

The US stock market can never go down for more than a year or two at most. It has performed the best looking backward which is proof that it will perform the best going forward. And it can never have a long sideways/bear period like Italy, Finland, Argentina, France, Japan, or China.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Ukrainiandude said:


> What possibly could go wrong 😑 right?
> View attachment 21230
> 
> two previous bubbles look baby daughters compared with this mother of all bubbles


I have to disagree on how your are looking at the graph over the long term. Since growth is exponential, it makes look like the recent years were moving up like crazy, but in fact they are just following the exponential curve. You have to look at the graph on a logarithmic scale.

We tend to forget that the "amazing decade" of 2010s was partly due to a big recovery from the huge 2008 crash lows.

This graph on a linear scale...









...becomes this graph on a logarithmic scale, so you can draw a straight line to assess the trend of the exponential growth.









And now you see that there was a bubble in 2000 as we all know, but currently we are just keeping up the usual trend after recovering from the 2008 crash.

And if 50 years is not enough to assess the trend, here's more. That line represents a 7.37% growth over 83 years.









Basically, S&P 500 is mostly near its trend. It doesn't mean it can't crash, but it's not in a bubble and it won't crash -50%.

If you look at NASDAQ though, it's in dangerous territory... See how in 2020 it has been moving up, up, up and it could enter bubble territory.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> But US markets are the best! America is unique in the world, other stock markets are known to be terrible but US stocks only ever go up. Japan, Europe, South America, China are all irrelevant.


Well, I'm being cautious about the US stocks because they are becoming more and more expensive, but that just signals an underperformance, not a crash.

And since US is currently the economic power, it has a huge advantage over all other countries.

Until China becomes the economic power. Until there's a war.

China's GDP is growing much faster than US, but it's still years from outpacing US. Though I must say that China's GDP PPP is already much higher than the US.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

MrBlackhill said:


> Basically, S&P 500 is mostly near its trend. It doesn't mean it can't crash, but it's not in a bubble and it won't crash -50%


okay let’s look at the biggest Apple of S&P 500
it was $40 in 2018 it has more than tripled since, but it’s earnings barely moved, 
net income in 2018 was 59 billions and 57 in 2020
Or 

Apple annual revenue for 2020 was $274.515B, a 5.51% increase from 2019.
Apple annual revenue for 2019 was $260.174B, a 2.04% decline from 2018.
Apple annual revenue for 2018 was $265.595B, a 15.86% increase from 2017


----------



## Ukrainiandude

MrBlackhill said:


> Until China becomes the economic power. Until there's a war.
> 
> China's GDP is growing much faster than US, but it's still years from outpacing US.


*Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid








Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid


A UK-based think tank says the pandemic has caused economic momentum to shift further in favour of Asia.



www.bbc.com




*


----------



## MrBlackhill

Ukrainiandude said:


> Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid


I didn't want to forecast a number of years, but my ballpark estimation was 10 years, so it could also totally be feasible for China by 2028.



Ukrainiandude said:


> okay let’s look at the biggest Apple of S&P 500
> it was $40 in 2018 it has more than tripled since, but it’s earnings barely moved,
> net income in 2018 was 59 billions and 57 in 2020
> Or
> 
> Apple annual revenue for 2020 was $274.515B, a 5.51% increase from 2019.
> Apple annual revenue for 2019 was $260.174B, a 2.04% decline from 2018.
> Apple annual revenue for 2018 was $265.595B, a 15.86% increase from 2017


I agree with this. I've myself did the same analysis in the past. AAPL's revenues and earnings are underperforming, so its SP has to calm down.

There's a thing though... Even if AAPL's revenues are not growing as fast as they should with respect with their SP, its multiples are still lower than MSFT for instance, even though MSFT has been growing its revenues and earnings. They are also comparable to GOOG, even though GOOG has been growing its revenues and earnings.

AAPL

P/S 7.84
P/E 37.26 to 29.55
MSFT

P/S 11.91
P/E 36.08 to 29.91
GOOG

P/S 7.60
P/E 35.19 to 26.17
It's just telling us that AAPL should start underperforming its peers if they can't grow their revenues and earnings starting this year.

In fact, I also said that NASDAQ was in dangerous territory, but not S&P 500. I'm mostly saying that US tech better calm down. A correction on NASDAQ will obviously affect AAPL, MSFT, GOOG and it'd be healthy.

But S&P 500 is not in a bubble.

And NASDAQ is not in a bubble yet or it's starting a bubble if it doesn't correct soon.


----------



## james4beach

Elon Musk manipulated the dogecoin market again by tweeting on Sunday.

DOGE is up 24%. It's now doubled in price since Thursday.


----------



## m3s

Tesla invests $1.5B in BTC and will accept it as payment


----------



## m3s

I've been picking up stocks from ETF holdings like BLOK

The market has gone crypto crazy. I'd like to know why US based companies like Galaxy, Voyager etc are listed on CN


----------



## MrBlackhill

Crazy market.

How can the absolute beginner that I am make over +70% XIRR in 10 months (over +50% P&L)... I was NOT expecting this. My whole portfolio could crash -35% tomorrow and I would not lose any of the money I invested in 2020...

Market crashes and recoveries are the best because... the market gets bailout...


----------



## Ukrainiandude

This chart reminds me the great euphoria of 2021-22


----------



## doctrine

MrBlackhill said:


> Crazy market.
> 
> How can the absolute beginner that I am make over +70% XIRR in 10 months (over +50% P&L)... I was NOT expecting this. My whole portfolio could crash -35% tomorrow and I would not lose any of the money I invested in 2020...
> 
> Market crashes and recoveries are the best because... the market gets bailout...


This will end when the next tightening cycle begins. Monetary stimulus and low interest rates = high liquidity which will eventually drive inflation. Once inflation starts peeking above 3% or so, which is really not that much given how much monetary and fiscal stimulus is out there, that will be the beginning of "The Conversation".

"The Conversation" is likely to end in at a minimum of a correction but more likely touch to bear market status in many markets. Likely many asset classes too negatively correlated with interest rates.

"The Conversation" is when interest rates rise, either or both with the market and central banks. It could also be combined with fiscal restraint. Watch out then. I think this story could start sooner than people think - no more than 18 months, but maybe in the next 12 months. Maybe even in the next 6.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

The us treasuries reached 2%


----------



## MrBlackhill

doctrine said:


> This will end when the next tightening cycle begins. Monetary stimulus and low interest rates = high liquidity which will eventually drive inflation. Once inflation starts peeking above 3% or so, which is really not that much given how much monetary and fiscal stimulus is out there, that will be the beginning of "The Conversation".
> 
> "The Conversation" is likely to end in at a minimum of a correction but more likely touch to bear market status in many markets. Likely many asset classes too negatively correlated with interest rates.
> 
> "The Conversation" is when interest rates rise, either or both with the market and central banks. It could also be combined with fiscal restraint. Watch out then. I think this story could start sooner than people think - no more than 18 months, but maybe in the next 12 months. Maybe even in the next 6.











Doomsayers predicted trillions in COVID relief spending would trigger epic inflation. What happened?


Despite budget-busting stimulus spending, prices have barely risen. That doesn't mean we've dodged an epic wave of inflation.




fortune.com












Economics Needs New Theories About Stimulus and Inflation


Economics Needs New Theories About Stimulus and Inflation




www.bloombergquint.com





Hard to tell what comes next.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

Did not know that.
In the United States, the term *Nifty Fifty* was an informal designation for fifty popular large-cap stocks on the New York Stock Exchange in the 1960s and 1970s that were widely regarded as solid buy and hold growth stocks, or "Blue-chip" stocks. These fifty stocks are credited by historians with propelling the bull market of the early 1970s, while their subsequent crash and underperformance through the early 1980s are an example of what may occur following a period during which many investors, influenced by a positive market sentiment, ignore fundamental stock valuation metrics.


----------



## james4beach

Ukrainiandude said:


> Did not know that.
> In the United States, the term *Nifty Fifty* was an informal designation for fifty popular large-cap stocks on the New York Stock Exchange in the 1960s and 1970s that were widely regarded as solid buy and hold growth stocks, or "Blue-chip" stocks. These fifty stocks are credited by historians with propelling the bull market of the early 1970s, while their subsequent crash and underperformance through the early 1980s are an example of what may occur following a period during which many investors, influenced by a positive market sentiment, ignore fundamental stock valuation metrics.


I think it's even more interesting.

Stock indexing was not a thing in the 1960s. So what we consider the normal way to invest today was not really used back then, perhaps until the late 1970s or into the 1980s.

Instead the Nifty Fifty was the popular way to invest. So one question I keep asking myself is, why do we think that modern indexing methods (like cap weighting) will perform well into the future? The Nifty Fifty was once the modern investment method, and it didn't do well through the bear market.

Could it be that we have all bought into a style of investing (due to hindsight bias) which will be rendered obsolete in the coming years? *Maybe* cap weighting like the S&P 500 index won't always perform so well.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> *Maybe* cap weighting like the S&P 500 index won't always perform so well.


Yup, there's a lot of great reading about the S&P 5 vs S&P 495.

With the concentration in weight of the top mega caps that just mostly doubled their valuation multiples, I wouldn't be comfortable with market cap indexing at this point.

For those who still want to use passive indexing solutions, I'd start looking at equal weighted like RSP and QQQE.

When reading about S&P 5 vs S&P 495, one interesting point is that fund managers can't afford to exit their positions on the S&P 5 stocks because they are currently the very best performers, so they have to ride that momentum... until it reaches the peak and then they try to time the market right before the bubble pops.

What happens to market cap indexing when the momentum is on those mega caps? Pretty scary for those passive investors.


----------



## MrMatt

Canada had this issue with the TSX60 & nortel.

Really the mega-caps mess stuff up.
It doesn't help that my high risk portion is now these mega caps.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Canada had this issue with the TSX60 & nortel.
> 
> Really the mega-caps mess stuff up.
> It doesn't help that my high risk portion is now these mega caps.


That's what I thought at first as well, that highly concentrated indexes like the TSX 60 have Nortel kind of problems. But longer term this hasn't been the case. XIU (the TSX 60 tracker) performance since inception is 7.12% which is great, despite inception being right near the Nortel bubble peak. Cap weighted indexes have, in fact, adapted over time.

In fact, TSX 60 performance since 2000 is almost identical to the S&P 500. That's despite the TSX 60 being heavily concentrated in Nortel at the start of that comparison period which probably looked very scary.

I think that pretty much proves that mega cap weightings in the TSX 60 aren't a problem.


----------



## james4beach

Regarding craziest bubble stocks, now the crowd has shifted (back) to marijuana stocks!

Look at HMMJ go


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> Regarding craziest bubble stocks, now the crowd has shifted (back) to marijuana stocks!
> 
> Look at HMMJ go


Yup, marijuana stocks are all over the place.


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Yup, marijuana stocks are all over the place.


So what do you think, is it time to now abandon all your tech stocks and pursue marijuana and bit coinz instead?

Tech stocks are kind of old news. Here is trailing 1 year return

SPY +19% ... honestly why would anyone bother with this? Pointless!
QQQ +44%
HMMJ +150%
Bitcoin +355%
TSLA +421%
NIO +1483%
Dogecoin +2319%

I believe you wanted aggressive high returns, IIRC. Aren't you kind of wasting your time with tech stocks, given these other opportunities?

(Warning: above post is tongue-in-cheek)


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> So what do you think, is it time to now abandon all your tech stocks and pursue marijuana and bit coinz instead?
> 
> Tech stocks are kind of old news. Here is trailing 1 year return
> 
> SPY +19% ... honestly why would anyone bother with this? Pointless!
> QQQ +44%
> HMMJ +150%
> Bitcoin +355%
> TSLA +421%
> NIO +1483%
> Dogecoin +2319%
> 
> I believe you wanted aggressive high returns, IIRC. Aren't you kind of wasting your time with tech stocks, given these other opportunities?
> 
> (Warning: above post is tongue-in-cheek)


Hehe! Actually, my tech sector exposure is currently 25%, which is even less than SPY. My huge overweight is currently in O&G-correlated stocks (20% exposure), which I plan to dump on signs of weaknesses. Crazy risk though, because stocks drop faster than they rise and oil-related stocks can tank pretty fast... getting burned with oil is not cool. Anyways.

I will take a position on a momentum stock only if I'm ok with its fundamentals.

I think cannabis have a future the same way tobacco stocks had a future, but I'm not ready to enter those stocks yet for a momentum play on speculative stocks with weak fundamentals.

If I were to buy cannabis-related stocks, it'd probably be TRUL.CN on the Canadian side or IIPR on the US side. Seriously, watch this one (IIPR).

That was my 2 cents.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Oh... I hold XBC.TO and it just announced that it had an order from FCEL, that crazy soaring stock. I'm wondering how it will affect XBC.TO, which can also be bought through XEBEF.

Not sure if I should continue this discussion here or on Xebec's thread.


----------



## Ukrainiandude




----------



## Ukrainiandude

Why the 'stonk' bubble poses major global risks and could trigger a 1930s-style market crash
Carson Block: Cheap money leading to excessive speculation contributed to the 1990s dotcom bubble, the 2000s housing bubble and now the stonk bubble
The real risk to markets is that passive flows go negative (if widespread layoffs lead workers and employers to cut their 401K contributions). If that were to happen, passive fund selling would quickly overwhelm the market. Such a crash could resemble 1929-1932 in magnitude but at 2021 speed.








Why the 'stonk' bubble poses major global risks and could trigger a 1930s-style market crash







financialpost.com


----------



## james4beach

Another indicator of bubble territory... SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) which are a variation of IPOs that give blank cheques to money managers, allowing them to invest in whatever they want without any guidelines or targets. These have become incredibly popular in the last couple years and many people believe this is a sure sign of a bubble. The SPAC structure is incredibly easy to abuse and can easily cheat investors.

There's a character, Chamath Palihapitiya, known as the 'King of SPACs' and I've also heard him referred to as 'SPAC Jesus'.

He's a bit like Elon Musk. Incredibly self obsessed, seems like a bit of a con man, and tries to cultivate a following, constantly tweets, pretends he is a man of the people (fake populist). In that article I link, Chamath thinks he can become the next Buffett and create a business empire like Berkshire.

He says that he'll generate enough wealth to shrink the inequality gap in America. All of this by doing "all things Chamath", in his own words.

It's silly and ridiculous. This is a kind of delusion and grift that comes near end of cycles.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Another indicator of bubble territory... SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) which are a variation of IPOs that give blank cheques to money managers, allowing them to invest in whatever they want without any guidelines or targets. These have become incredibly popular in the last couple years and many people believe this is a sure sign of a bubble. The SPAC structure is incredibly easy to abuse and can easily cheat investors.
> 
> There's a character, Chamath Palihapitiya, known as the 'King of SPACs' and I've also heard him referred to as 'SPAC Jesus'.
> 
> He's a bit like Elon Musk. Incredibly self obsessed, seems like a bit of a con man, and tries to cultivate a following, constantly tweets, pretends he is a man of the people (fake populist). In that article I link, Chamath thinks he can become the next Buffett and create a business empire like Berkshire.
> 
> He says that he'll generate enough wealth to shrink the inequality gap in America. All of this by doing "all things Chamath", in his own words.
> 
> It's silly and ridiculous. This is a kind of delusion and grift that comes near end of cycles.


Well, Elon is using corporate funds to gamble on bitcoin, it's the trendy thing to do.

I was recently asked, and I said, only buy stocks in companies that you understand how they will make money.
Put some in cash/fixed because who knows with the stock market.

The people who give these guys money deserve what happens.

Also specific to Elon, he uses the companies like his own personal playthings, and the owners/directors are encouraging this, it's their fault too.

To be fair, Elon has generated good results, so betting on him might be a good idea.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Well, Elon is using corporate funds to gamble on bitcoin, it's the trendy thing to do.


The SEC also banned him from doing this (he's not supposed to be running the company), so Elon might be violating regulatory rules with this Bitcoin thing.

Elon has been violating securities laws/regulations for quite a while now. It's not a good thing that he can break the law and get away with it, repeatedly. These regulations are supposed to be in place to protect the public markets from crooks.

I think Elon is a crook. I think Chamath is a crook too.



MrMatt said:


> The people who give these guys money deserve what happens.


Yeah I think so too, but TSLA is now a huge weight in the S&P 500. Every investor on earth, and every pension fund, is exposed to Elon's wacky and erratic behaviour, and his illegal behaviour (which he continues to do even in violation of the SEC).


----------



## MrBlackhill

All the popular WSB stocks jumped today, a few hours before market closed.

GME (+103.94%), AMC (+18.05%), BB (+8.85%), KOSS (+54.96%), NAKD (+31.07%), EXPR (+40.69%)

After hours are also crazy.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> The SEC also banned him from doing this (he's not supposed to be running the company), so Elon might be violating regulatory rules with this Bitcoin thing.


Never heard that, heard he wasn't the chairman of the board, but he's still CEO.

As far as Tesla on the market, yeah, indexing has it's flaws.


----------



## james4beach

james4beach said:


> PLUG
> TSLA
> NIO
> FCEL
> ARKK


Looks like many of the bubble stocks are falling together, today

SHOP -10.1%
BLDP -11.5%
PLUG -13.7%
TSLA -10.0%
NIO -13.9%
FCEL -17.3%
ARKK -7.5% (that's a whole ETF)
HMMJ -8.9% (another whole sector)

Wow! This also implies that SHOP was, in fact, one of the bubble stocks. To drop like this, it means it was in those portfolios which built up mania stocks.

Or maybe it's a buying opportunity! Many of these have not even yet hit their 200 day moving averages. Maybe this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime... what do you think @MrBlackhill is this just the pause before these double in value again?


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> what do you think @MrBlackhill is this just the pause before these double in value again?


I called it when NASDAQ was reaching 14,000. I said it was either the start of a bubble or there would be a quick and healthy correction. I was expecting TSX to perform better than S&P500 and NASDAQ this year. In fact, I'm expecting NASDAQ to be the worst performer this year. As I expect TSX to have single-digit performance this year and S&P 500 to be flat, maybe NASDAQ will end the year in the red. Sure thing to me, indices will be performing no more than single-digit this year.

What comes next is hard to tell. Maybe this is just a correction like in 1998 before a strong bounce back.

Money is moving from growth to value, and currently from tech to energy. Energy in 2021 could be the tech of 2020.

It will be a great opportunity to buy tech... when the drop will stabilise at a decent level. To me, a decent level for NASDAQ should at least be below 12,000 and I'd gladly buy NASDAQ below 11,000 this year. Not sure it'll happen though.

But so far it's nothing more than what happened in September 2020.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> Wow! This also implies that SHOP was, in fact, one of the bubble stocks. To drop like this, it means it was in those portfolios which built up mania stocks.
> 
> Or maybe it's a buying opportunity! Many of these have not even yet hit their 200 day moving averages. Maybe this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime... what do you think @MrBlackhill is this just the pause before these double in value again?


Shopify is the original bubble stock of this bull run. It rose to bubble status even before Tesla. It was worth more than Tesla in various periods of 2019.


----------



## MrBlackhill

doctrine said:


> Shopify is the original bubble stock of this bull run. It rose to bubble status even before Tesla. It was worth more than Tesla in various periods of 2019.


I agree that Shopify is expensive and I'm waiting for a better valuation, but one thing though about this comparison of Shopify vs Tesla (other than they are not in the same industry):

SHOP 3-year revenue growth is 60% vs 35% for TSLA
SHOP 5-year revenue growth is 65% vs 50% for TSLA
SHOP profit margin is 10% vs 2% for TSLA


----------



## james4beach

This could be a "buying opportunity" for all people who believe that these stocks are great long term investments.

If you think these are the real deal, and not just bubble stocks, wouldn't you want to buy on a correction?

TSLA is down 27% form its peak
PLUG is down 52% from its peak
FCEL down 52%
BLDP down 42%


----------



## Ukrainiandude




----------



## MrBlackhill

Ethereum is on a run, wow. But I must admit it's the only crypto I would be willing to buy, but instead I bought a blockchain ETF, way too late in my opinion though.

ETH is nearing a 10-fold in 6 months.


----------



## R. Austin

One word...DOGE...🐶


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Ethereum is on a run, wow. But I must admit it's the only crypto I would be willing to buy


I narrowed it down to ETH and ADA.

ETH pays me 5.5-6.5% (liquid) and 8% (bonded) and this is expected to increase after the ETH2 merge at these volumes. The fees will get burned at that point. This could make ETH the first capital that can also be liquid and a commodity (transaction fees) Visa, Mastercard and European banks will be using it for transactions

ADA pays me 5-6% (liquid) and is projected to have its biggest upgrade in Aug. They have agreements with governments and they have far more features for governance and sustainability. ADA seems more professional and advanced but nothing is really built on it yet. If they get smart contracts and DeFi before ETH2..

I have some exposure to BTC in TFSA/RRSP. I have random other tokens that have exploded but I don't see them sticking around. No DOGE yet


----------



## james4beach

Many of these have come down hard. Here are the drawdowns (from the peak price) so far

FCEL -74%
PLUG -72%
BLDP -65%
HMMJ.TO -49%
NIO -47%
BABA -31%
TSLA -28%

What do you think @MrBlackhill and @Jimmy maybe the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Time to go in with leverage?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Many of these have come down hard. Here are the drawdowns (from the peak price) so far
> 
> FCEL -74%
> PLUG -72%
> BLDP -65%
> HMMJ.TO -49%
> NIO -47%
> BABA -31%
> TSLA -28%
> 
> What do you think @MrBlackhill and @Jimmy maybe the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Time to go in with leverage?


I think BABA is a great company, but the ownership structure is a disaster.
Sure it's just an Amazon wannabe, but China is well known for protecting domestic companies from competition.


----------



## Jimmy

james4beach said:


> Many of these have come down hard. Here are the drawdowns (from the peak price) so far
> 
> FCEL -74%
> PLUG -72%
> BLDP -65%
> HMMJ.TO -49%
> NIO -47%
> BABA -31%
> TSLA -28%
> 
> What do you think @MrBlackhill and @Jimmy maybe the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Time to go in with leverage?


 I don't own any of those companies so not sure why you direct your sarcasm at me. Some are good though and way oversold so yes it is a good time to buy.
I don't buy on margin either. You omitted gold and XLB which are down 15-20%. Are you buying?


----------



## Ukrainiandude

Jimmy said:


> Some are good though and way oversold so yes it is a good time to buy.


Baba?


----------



## james4beach

Jimmy said:


> I don't own any of those companies so not sure why you direct your sarcasm at me. Some are good though and way oversold so yes it is a good time to buy.
> I don't buy on margin either.


I directed this genuine question at you, because you stated early in this thread that "Most of these stocks growing rapidly have the sales and earnings to support their valuations". You stated that you were interested in these, and think they are good investments, so that's obviously why I am asking you if you'd like to buy at these much lower prices.



Jimmy said:


> You omitted gold and XLB which are down 15-20%. Are you buying?


Long term bonds are not part of my investment plan, so I have no interest in buying XLB at any price.

Gold is part of my investment plan, so yes, I am buying it when down. When adding new money to my portfolio, I buy whichever asset is under weight at the time.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> What do you think @MrBlackhill and @Jimmy maybe the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Time to go in with leverage?


It's a valid question. I saw stocks that I liked going down 50-75% from March til June last year. Really, a lot of them stayed down until early November 2020, when Pfizer announced their COVID vaccine was 95%+ effective. I was scrounging up a lot of spare cash and even punched my LOC to buy shares in the 6+ month sale. So cash plus leverage. Down 75% means you can get 300% if it just returns to where it was.


----------



## Jimmy

Ukrainiandude said:


> Baba?


Sure. Oversold and a cheaper version of Amazon that many analysts really like . Concern is all their issues w the govt though. JD And PDD are better


----------



## Jimmy

james4beach said:


> I directed this genuine question at you, because you stated early in this thread that "Most of these stocks growing rapidly have the sales and earnings to support their valuations". You stated that you were interested in these, and think they are good investments, so that's obviously why I am asking you if you'd like to buy at these much lower prices.


No almost all wrong. You seem to have confused what I said. I never stated any of your last sentence. The first part was a general comment you have taken out of context.

In reality all I said was " Most of these stocks growing rapidly have the sales and earnings to support their valuations." referring to growth stocks generally


----------



## MrBlackhill

__





Goldman Sachs executive quits after making millions from Dogecoin | Goldman Sachs | The Guardian


The crypto asset is down more than 30% this week but is still up by more than 1,000% from the start of 2021




amp.theguardian.com







> A senior manager at Goldman Sachs in London has quit the US investment bank after making millions from investing in Dogecoin, the joke crypto asset which has risen by more than 1,000% in value this year.
> 
> City sources said Aziz McMahon, a managing director and head of emerging market sales, had resigned from the bank after making money from investing in the digital currency based on the Doge internet meme.


Lots of people winning the cryptolottery. At the moment, I kinda have a feeling of missing out on Ethereum (I wouldn't buy Doge). I was wondering if I should buy a little bit when some ETF came out. Now they have risen +70% since then, less than a month ago. They say to follow your dreams... I don't why, but I had a dream about Ethereum a few weeks ago... And I usually never dream. Still haven't bought it as I only want to buy productive assets.


----------



## m3s

I haven't bought ETH for a long time @MrBlackhill but I hold a lot of it. I run an ethereum node and I used ethereum DeFi before the gas prices got out of hand (now hundreds of dollars per transaction..)

Lately I'm buying Polygon because it appears to be the best scaling solution coming to ethereum. It's easier to stake than ETH. If I sell some ETH after this pump cools off I might put more into Polygon. However if Cardano successfully launches smart contracts I will be laser focused on their DeFi projects. User experience is so much better with Cardano and the fees are tiny.

Look at VYGR, COIN etc. Voyager app has been crashing and getting complaints but I see that as unfortunate growing pains from exponential demand. Coinbase is now the #1 app in the US app store


----------



## m3s

HUT 8 announces plans to list on NASDAQ









Hut 8 Announces Plans to List on NASDAQ


/CNW/ - Hut 8 Mining Corp. (TSX: HUT) ("Hut 8" or the "Company"), one of North America's oldest and largest innovation-focused bitcoin miners, is pleased to...




www.newswire.ca


----------



## m3s

m3s said:


> Lately I'm buying Polygon because it appears to be the best scaling solution coming to ethereum. It's easier to stake than ETH. If I sell some ETH after this pump cools off I might put more into Polygon. However if Cardano successfully launches smart contracts I will be laser focused on their DeFi projects. User experience is so much better with Cardano and the fees are tiny.


Polygon and Cardano now pumping while everything else is down


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Polygon and Cardano now pumping while everything else is down


doge is surprisingly flat.
My btc is taking a hit, eth is pretty stable.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> doge is surprisingly flat.
> My btc is taking a hit, eth is pretty stable.


Looks like many are down 10% or more this morning.

Why the big sell off today?


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Looks like many are down 10% or more this morning.
> 
> Why the big sell off today?


Who knows, I've yet to see any valuation that isn't simply a ponzi scheme.

Though I think the platform coins are doing some things with non-zero value.
I personally think NFTs are dumb, but that's an actual function, which has a non-zero value.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> Looks like many are down 10% or more this morning.
> 
> Why the big sell off today?




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1394170030741413888
Elon Musk tweet storm about crypto over the weekend. US taxes are also due but I think it's more the uncertainty from the "technoking of Tesla"

Cardano, Solana, Polygon are up in a sea of red since this started because they are the most likely ones he would chose

Fixing Doge as Elon says they will try to do is possible but it would take a complete overhaul at this point


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392974251011895300


----------



## james4beach

What kind of "currency" moves 10% to 15% any time one man "tweets" about it?

Elon is succeeding at one thing: making a mockery of crypto koinz and showing how useless they are for anything other than gambling.


----------



## nathan79

Couldn't he do the same thing to stocks if he felt like it?


----------



## m3s

Yet hodling 40% of your wealth in bonds in an inflationary environment..

Inflation is actually fiat "moving" in the wrong direction except you see fiat as 1 unit = 1 unit

You just have to reframe your mind


----------



## m3s

Meanwhile Cardano is up 30% this week and Polygon up 140%


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> What kind of "currency" moves 10% to 15% any time one man "tweets" about it?
> 
> Elon is succeeding at one thing: making a mockery of crypto koinz and showing how useless they are for anything other than gambling.


Any currency that is has an unclear value?


----------



## MrBlackhill

Interesting 1-year graph today.

And they all meet together!


----------



## m3s

Voyager Digital earnings next week

From crumbs dropped by the CEO could be 10-20x new accounts, trades and AUM

Plans to expand to Canada and Europe


----------



## Ukrainiandude

Interesting book that was written in 2005.


https://delong.typepad.com/manias.pdf


Manias generally have been associated with the expansion phase of the business cycle, in part because the euphoria associated with the mania leads to increases in spending. During the mania the increases in the prices of real estate or stocks or in one or several commodities contribute to increases in consumption and investment spending that in turn lead to accelerations in the rates of eco- nomic growth. The seers in the economy forecast perpetual economic growth and some venturesome ones proclaim no more recessions— the traditional business cycles of the market economies have become obsolete. The increase in the rate of economic growth induces investors and lenders to become more optimistic about the future and asset prices increase more rapidly—at least for a while.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrBlackhill said:


> Lots of fun in the market...
> 
> View attachment 21202
> 
> 
> View attachment 21203
> 
> 
> View attachment 21204
> 
> 
> View attachment 21205
> 
> 
> View attachment 21206


Did you guys notice that those who have held those stocks actually didn't lose money? (Except for those who bought really high)

GME is a 10X YTD (but -50% from ATH)
AMC is more than a 10X YTD (but -30% from ATH)
EXPR is a 5X YTD (but -65% from ATH)
KOSS is a 8X YTD (but -80% from ATH)
BB is a +50% YTD (but -65% from ATH)

Those who bought the true crazy stocks GME and AMC are doing good... as long as they had the nerves for the ride.


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## Ukrainiandude




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## MrBlackhill

TSX touched 20,000 today


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> TSX touched 20,000 today


What are your favourite stock picks, here at all time market highs?

AMC is up 19% today, NIO up 9% and might be breaking out, has cleared above its 50 and 200 day moving average. NIO is likely a fraud but nothing matters at all time bubble highs.

Myself, the only thing I bought recently were bonds. I'm already overweight in my stock allocation so there is no justification for buying stocks here.


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## nathan79

TSX doesn't seem like a bubble to me. It took 13 years to go from 15,000 to 20,000. The S&P on the other hand is very overvalued since well before COVID.


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## MrBlackhill

nathan79 said:


> TSX doesn't seem like a bubble to me. It took 13 years to go from 15,000 to 20,000. The S&P on the other hand is very overvalued since well before COVID.


Yes, that's why I'm happy seeing the TSX beat S&P 500 and NASDAQ so far this year. That's what I was expecting. Now, the next half of the year will be very interesting...


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## james4beach

nathan79 said:


> TSX doesn't seem like a bubble to me. It took 13 years to go from 15,000 to 20,000. The S&P on the other hand is very overvalued since well before COVID.


Looking at 2000 to now, the TSX has actually posted more routine and regular gains than the US index. Yes with volatility, but the Canadian market has been a pretty good ride.

Today, the 15 year return of XIU is 6.8% CAGR
And since inception in 1999 (22+ years), 7.5% CAGR

Note this start date ^ was the dot com bubble *peak*. Even someone who bought the index right at the peak has an excellent return.

Anyone invested in the dumb old Canadian index is "winning". The only hard part about investing is sticking with the strategy in the long term. Easier said than done.


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## MrBlackhill

MrBlackhill said:


> Did you guys notice that those who have held those stocks actually didn't lose money? (Except for those who bought really high)
> 
> GME is a 10X YTD (but -50% from ATH)
> AMC is more than a 10X YTD (but -30% from ATH)
> EXPR is a 5X YTD (but -65% from ATH)
> KOSS is a 8X YTD (but -80% from ATH)
> BB is a +50% YTD (but -65% from ATH)
> 
> Those who bought the true crazy stocks GME and AMC are doing good... as long as they had the nerves for the ride.


AMC... 20X YTD

Correction : 30X


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## james4beach

AMC ... unbelievable, doubled today! New analyst price target of $200 perhaps?

I do have one technical note about this chart. Time and again, the 200 day moving average has served as a good indicator of whether a stock is generally strong or weak. AMC got above its 200 day moving average in February.


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> AMC got above its 200 day moving average in February.


Be careful with that analysis. AMC got above its 200 MA because it jumped in euphoria, not the other way around. AMC was also above its 200 MA in September 2020, and in 2018, and in 2016... And yet it continued to drop.


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## m3s

I thought AMC was just another short squeeze

This trend started with Bill Gates shorting TSLA and losing hard

VYGR is also heavily shorted btw


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## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> I thought AMC was just another short squeeze
> 
> This trend started with Bill Gates shorting TSLA and losing hard
> 
> VYGR is also heavily shorted btw


Yes, but I'm wondering how much a stock has to be shorted to truly trigger a short squeeze, as this may be just a hype in the hope of squeezing the shorts.

AMC is about 20% shorted, maybe less.


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## Spudd

BB had a nice pop today but it seems to have been short-lived.


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## doctrine

AMC takes the cake here for bubble stock. Even moreso than GME.


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## Ukrainiandude

The inflation in the USA is picking up the speed.


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## nobleea

I would guess the US would raise rates before CAD would. Which would make our dollar weaker.
I always thought that inflation was going to be the way to get rid of the impact of our pesky debt. So maybe they'll be content with a higher than normal inflation rate for a while.


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## Ukrainiandude

*Real Central Bank Rates (rate minus inflation) :*

US: -4.9%
Poland: -4.7%
Brazil: -4.6%
Saudi Arabia: -4.3%
Canada: -3.2%
Chile: -3.1%
Malaysia: -3.0%
Norway: -2.7%
Eurozone: -2.5%
Philippines: -2.5%
S. Korea: -2.1%
Mexico: -1.9%
UK: -1.4%
Swiss: -1.4%
Russia: -1.0%
India: -0.3%


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## Ukrainiandude

Déjà vu
reminds me of summer 2008.


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## MrMatt

Ukrainiandude said:


> *Real Central Bank Rates (rate minus inflation) :*
> 
> US: -4.9%
> Poland: -4.7%
> Brazil: -4.6%
> Saudi Arabia: -4.3%
> Canada: -3.2%
> Chile: -3.1%
> Malaysia: -3.0%
> Norway: -2.7%
> Eurozone: -2.5%
> Philippines: -2.5%
> S. Korea: -2.1%
> Mexico: -1.9%
> UK: -1.4%
> Swiss: -1.4%
> Russia: -1.0%
> India: -0.3%


Nothing to see here, move along.


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## Tostig

The whole market seems to be in a bubble. The TSX keeps going up. June is on average a down month of something like -0.4% for the S&P500.

I took advantage of BMO's commission-free ETFs and bought small quantities of VFV and XIU for my wife's TFSA.

Then the next day, I tried to top up my own RRSP and TFSA by placing limit orders based on the previous day's low to try picking them up on the volitility. But so far they have not been filled. Makes you wonder if just buying at market would be better since I want them anyways. Why waste time?


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## Ukrainiandude

Tostig said:


> VFV and XIU


ZSP and HXT have lower MER


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## MrBlackhill

Warning! To me, NASDAQ above 14,000 makes no sense! It'll go back to 13,000 at some point, mark my words.


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## Tostig

MrBlackhill said:


> Warning! To me, NASDAQ above 14,000 makes no sense! It'll go back to 13,000 at some point, mark my words.


That's a 7% drop. We've been there just a few months ago when ZQQ when down 15% and I bought more.


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## MrBlackhill

Tostig said:


> That's a 7% drop. We've been there just a few months ago when ZQQ when down 15% and I bought more.


What I believe to be a reasonable valuation for NASDAQ for EOY 2021 would be 12,000, but I won't say this because I feel like the momentum is still so strong (even with that drifting sideways YTD) that 12,000 won't happen in the next few months, but I think it's likely to drop to 13,000 in the next 6 months. We may see 12,000 in 2022, actually...


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## Ukrainiandude

MrBlackhill said:


> Warning! To me, NASDAQ above 14,000 makes no sense! It'll go back to 13,000 at some point, mark my words.


 I agree, could be 20% correction in fall market wide.


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## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Warning! To me, NASDAQ above 14,000 makes no sense! It'll go back to 13,000 at some point, mark my words.


Why does it make no sense?

Interest rates are low and will remain low for a while, inflation should be sky high and we're seeing peeks of it.


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## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Why does it make no sense?
> 
> Interest rates are low and will remain low for a while, inflation should be sky high and we're seeing peeks of it.


Pandemic or not, interest rates have been decreasing steadily following a linear trend since about 1987. Rates took a sharp drop in 2020, but they're back up to their usual linearly decreasing trend. Look at how low were the rates in 2012 and 2016. The current ECY of NASDAQ is also alarming, and that takes into account the interest rates.

Meanwhile, during that same period from 1987, NASDAQ has followed an exponential trend which has been broken in 2000 and 2008.
During the 2000 bubble, NASDAQ's volume increased sharply, setting a new level which was twice its previous volume.
Since 2000, the NASDAQ weekly volume was about 10B, until 2020, where it doubled to 20B and has kept that average volume since then, a similar pattern to the bubble of 2000.
Continuing the current momentum could be the creation of a new bubble which could last a few years of euphoria, but hopefully not, hopefully we'll just have a correction this year or next year to levels around 13,000, and ideally 12,000.

This aberration may have even started silently in 2016.

I'm talking specifically of NASDAQ, not S&P 500 which is safer at the moment.

I'd prefer picking the stocks with decent valuations inside NASDAQ than buying its index as a whole.


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## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Pandemic or not, interest rates have been decreasing steadily following a linear trend since about 1987.
> 
> I'd prefer picking the stocks with decent valuations inside NASDAQ than buying its index as a whole.


yes rates are low, and I expect they will continue to be low, and inflation will be high. I believe for that reason good companies will offer good returns.

I like picking stocks with decent valuations, and I also appreciate passive index investing. Both methods make a lot of sense to me. Active/Passive is just a philosophy, I'm bullish on stocks right now, though there is a lot of stupid crap I'm not interested in investing in.

I'm okay with holding a different opinion than "everyone" so eschewing the index in favour of individual stocks is just fine with me. But with low rates and high inflation, I think equities are the place to be.

Specifically I'm interested in infrastructure, commodities and real estate right now. I think the tech world is going to experience significant political risk going forward.


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## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> yes rates are low, and I expect they will continue to be low, and inflation will be high. I believe for that reason good companies will offer good returns.
> 
> I like picking stocks with decent valuations, and I also appreciate passive index investing. Both methods make a lot of sense to me. Active/Passive is just a philosophy, I'm bullish on stocks right now, though there is a lot of stupid crap I'm not interested in investing in.
> 
> I'm okay with holding a different opinion than "everyone" so eschewing the index in favour of individual stocks is just fine with me. But with low rates and high inflation, I think equities are the place to be.
> 
> Specifically I'm interested in infrastructure, commodities and real estate right now. I think the tech world is going to experience significant political risk going forward.


I agree.

I believe that picking the right stocks, or at least the right sectors or industries will do good in any context when an active investor is skilled enough to adapt to the current context.

That's why INFL ETF is up +19% YTD. I also believe there will be inflation, but not all stocks will do great through inflation.

My warning is about NASDAQ specifically. But other strategies like yours will (may) do great in the near future.

And passive investors with a well diversified portfolio of indexes ETF and asset classes will do great in any context. (Great here means they'll continue to do the low volatility average return, which is fine as a strategy)

But as an active investor, I wouldn't buy QQQ at the moment, for instance. I'm wondering though if it'll continue its run up in the next few days as it seems like this time it truly managed to break that 14,000 while teaching new ATH which is bullish, but I'd still be cautious.


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## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> I agree.
> 
> I believe that picking the right stocks, or at least the right sectors or industries will do good in any context when an active investor is skilled enough to adapt to the current context.
> 
> That's why INFL ETF is up +19% YTD. I also believe there will be inflation, but not all stocks will do great through inflation.
> 
> My warning is about NASDAQ specifically. But other strategies like yours will (may) do great in the near future.
> 
> And passive investors with a well diversified portfolio of indexes ETF and asset classes will do great in any context. (Great here means they'll continue to do the low volatility average return, which is fine as a strategy)
> 
> But as an active investor, I wouldn't buy QQQ at the moment, for instance. I'm wondering though if it'll continue its run up in the next few days as it seems like this time it truly managed to break that 14,000 while teaching new ATH which is bullish, but I'd still be cautious.


I wouldn't choose to buy QQQ because I think tech valuations are in general crazy.
However as part of a couch potato I would buy some, efficient market theory says that the market is likely mostly correct, even if they're crazy.


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## MrBlackhill

We're about to say that NASDAQ did 2x in 2 years and 3x in 5 years. Does this make any sense?


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## MrBlackhill

Keep this in mind.





__





Interest Rate Effects on Equities: Valuation Impacts







www.lynalden.com






The DCF model is more sensitive at lower interest rates
The valuation using DCF is more sensitive for growth stock than value stocks
The valuation using DCF is even more sensitive for hyper growth stocks
As interest rates continue its downward trend, equity valuation gets increasingly sensitive to a tiny bounce back rising rates.


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> As interest rates continue its downward trend, equity valuation gets increasingly sensible to a tiny bounce back rising rates.


'Sensible' was probably a French/English typo, I realize.

Yeah, equities are very sensitive to interest rates. The prices are *inflated* by low interest rates. Low interest rates have increased prices on everything -- stocks, bonds, real estate. Therefore, we can probably expect to see lower returns in all of these going forward, especially if interest rates rise.

Many people believe that the central banks would not dare raise interest rates, because it would likely cause real estate and stocks to crash. Therefore you might as well buy stocks because it seems very unlikely that the central bank will ever raise rates.

I think this is why poor economic news has generally been good for the stock market. Poor economic or labour data --> reduce probably of rate hikes


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## Ukrainiandude

How are markets going to react if the USA was to break up? How low will S&P fall? Just theoretically speaking.


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## james4beach

Ukrainiandude said:


> How are markets going to react if the USA was to break up? How low will S&P fall? Just theoretically speaking.


Yeah, I think political instability in the US is a pretty serious concern. I guess that's what makes stock markets exciting.


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## MrBlackhill

MrBlackhill said:


> Warning! To me, NASDAQ above 14,000 makes no sense! It'll go back to 13,000 at some point, mark my words.


Just a reminder. Posted this on June 2021, 7 months ago. Since then, we went above 16,000, but now we are heading back to 14,000.

NASDAQ currently down -12% from ATH.


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## doctrine

There is some serious unwinding occurring in the bubble space. It is interesting in how a lot of them were immediately identifiable; the Zooms, Palantirs, Peletons, etc; no earnings, rapid growth, we are spending to expand despite not having any real moat or competitive advantage that prevents competitors from eating their lunch. But it takes a while for unwinding to occur. When the stock price drops, and there are no earnings, no substance to support the stock price, and the outlook inevitably turns sour, well its like a fire in a movie theatre.

It hasn't all unwound yet, there is still some crazy valuations out there. But a solid bear market for technology is absolutely a requirement to flush out the garbage and there is probably big opportunities in the profitable companies that remain, especially if they get thrown out with the trash. Apple has always been profitable. Microsoft too. And same with Google - $1B of annual net profit in the year before they went public. Amazon has been threading a needle but perhaps underperforming now because of it, eventually investors will want returns.


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## Thal81

Oh yeah, all the overhyped tech stocks, meme stocks and cryptos are plunging. It's beautiful.


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## Ukrainiandude

Thal81 said:


> Oh yeah, all the overhyped tech stocks, meme stocks and cryptos are plunging. It's beautiful.


 Don’t worry the rest will follow. Wait for it. Financials (North American) and commodities are bloated as well.


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## james4beach

It seems that every "get rich quick" stock, including the coins, are plummeting.

Hopefully this continues so we can wipe out all the speculators and amateurs.


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## Ukrainiandude

james4beach said:


> It seems that every "get rich quick" stock, including the coins, are plummeting.
> 
> Hopefully this continues so we can wipe out all the speculators and amateurs.


I expect all stocks including safe boomers stocks to go eventually to pre covid levels. Banks are ridiculously expensive now for instance.


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## nobleea

Ukrainiandude said:


> I expect all stocks including safe boomers stocks to go eventually to pre covid levels. Banks are ridiculously expensive now for instance.


Are they? Most CAD banks are at current P/E's of 11-13. Is that expensive?


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## MrBlackhill

nobleea said:


> Are they? Most CAD banks are at current P/E's of 11-13. Is that expensive


If there's a crash, even cheap stocks will crash, but they are safer because they'll bounce back up faster. But I don't believe we're ready for a crash, it's still just a correction.

I was predicting a crash by the end of 2023, but if they start rising the rates next week, we could have a real crash sooner than later.

Now it's just a big correction due to the expectations of rising rates.


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## Ukrainiandude

MrBlackhill said:


> Now it's just a big correction due to the expectations of rising


SPX and TSX at 5 months low. That is a fairly minor sell off.


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## Juggernaut92

Ukrainiandude said:


> Banks are ridiculously expensive now for instance.


I feel like that is true for bmo for quite a while.


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## Ukrainiandude

nobleea said:


> Are they? Most CAD banks are at current P/E's of 11-13. Is that expensive?


6-7 for banks is about right. Look at Russia’s largest state owned bank , it has P/E of 4 and it’s backed by the Russian government with over 600 billion US dollars in reserves. How big are reserves of Canadian government? Of course they can always print as always do.


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## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Now it's just a big correction due to the expectations of rising rates.


Sometimes we even get "buy the news" when the Fed gives "bad news" that isn't as bad as expected

It's like the reverse "buy the rumour" when the rumour is bad news. Just Wall Street doing Wall Street things

JPow loads his pellet gun with a rate hike and looks the rabid stimulus addicted elephant in the eye


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## Ukrainiandude

The markets peaked in Oct 2007 and began falling and by the time Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in Sept 2008, the markets had already lost over 30%. 
They then lost another ~%35 for the next 5 months before bottoming out in Feb 2009.


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## doctrine

nobleea said:


> Are they? Most CAD banks are at current P/E's of 11-13. Is that expensive?


Fear of crashes aside, a P/E of 11-13 is average to above average. They often trade around 10, which historically also means you get excellent returns just about whenever you buy, because you nearly always have a chance to get in at that 10% shareholder yield, with 5-6% annual growth, giving you long term 13-15% returns, at least over the last 30-40 years. If the P/E drops below 8, they are typically a screaming buy and offer outsized returns above 15%/year. And the P/E could drop below 6 like in March-June 2020 and that is the last time I was buying. The banks are considered cyclical and just do not get to those P/E of 15 or higher multiples because they can record big losses in recessions.


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## MrBlackhill

Headlines at the moment:


> Stock market books worst week since *March 2020*


PS: NASDAQ now down -15% from ATH.


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## Jimmy

This drop like the others in 2021 is in large part due to bond yields simply rising back to more normal levels. The fed is hiking interest rates maybe 4x in 2022 and 2x more in 2023.

The 10 yr bond yield has risen from, .~ .25% % to ~ 1.9% over the past ~ 6 months. So if your discount factor was say 6% before, it is now 7.65%.

A rise of 27.5 %, so stocks have fallen similarly. Stocks w growth further into the future more. I think this is all for now. At the end of the day there was some buying so it looks like it is done. See what happens on Monday. Adding some nibbles now as there are some good values. SHOP is not the best deal but closed at it's level set back in June 2020.


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## sags

Microstrategy is getting slaughtered on the news the SEC won't accept their accounting of their bitcoin holdings.

I wonder how other many companies that hold crypto will also have reporting problems.

In other similar news, El Salvador adopted a bitcoin currency and it is getting pounded in the debt markets.

The cost of their bonds quadrupled to 35% interest and they will have trouble finding investors to fund their debts.

The IMF is reluctant to bail out a country that gambles their money in crypto.

Microstrategy bought their bitcoin with high interest debt as well.

Bitcoin is crashing again today......down to $36,300 at the moment.









MicroStrategy shares drop on bitcoin's slide, SEC rejection of company's crypto accounting


The software company's stock had been falling in tandem with the price of bitcoin, which dropped more than 10% Friday to its lowest point since August.




www.cnbc.com







Bitcoin Ticker - Tick by tick - Real time updates


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## m3s

sags said:


> The IMF is reluctant to bail out a country that gambles their money in crypto.
> 
> Microstrategy bought their bitcoin with high interest debt as well.
> 
> Bitcoin is crashing again today......down to $36,300 at the moment.


Do you think the IMF actually helps poor countries sags?

MicroStrategy is up over 100% on their BTC. GBTC is trading at over 20% discount now. Must be all the paper hand boomers who barely understand where they are anymore let alone BTC. It will be interesting to see how El Salvador makes out. They are offering BTC bonds to bitcoiners.. lots of very deep pockets and their reputation is basically hinged on El Salvador now

People who are up +100x don't really care about a dip btw


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## Eder

james4beach said:


> Hopefully this continues so we can wipe out all the speculators and amateurs.


Why? It is because of these guys thats there is alpha in the TSX. Its hard to buy quality stocks cheaply if everyone just buys & never panic sells.


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## Ukrainiandude

VAB YTD -1.91%, last 5 days -0.04%

That is why I prefer HISA with 2% rate.


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## james4beach

Eder said:


> Why? It is because of these guys thats there is alpha in the TSX. Its hard to buy quality stocks cheaply if everyone just buys & never panic sells.


Good point there


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## james4beach

Is anyone getting into makeup stocks?

Revlon (REV) is all the rage now. Up 34% yesterday and quadruple the price of a week ago.

(I'm just trying to be funny, I don't trade things like this and there's really no point)


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## Beaver101

^ No and so? +34% this week (and for what reason? CEO needs a castle of make-up stash?). Next week, it's -34%. 

Remember the simple saying "what goes up comes down" and what goes up fast, comes down even harder, if not faster.


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