# Lululemon - LULU/LLL.TO



## Kaitlyn (May 13, 2011)

It seems there isn't a discussion around this stock. I actually got in a few months after the IPO and have been loving it ever since. I stuck through losing like 80% when it dropped to below $10 but ever since it has been on the up and up.

Anyone else own this stock? What are your thoughts?

I constantly wonder if I should sell, but then it just continues to go higher! (I've actually sold I think more than 50% of my holdings over time... I should have BOUGHT 50% more instead )


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## sam (Mar 16, 2012)

I was thinking about buying 150 shares today . this stock looks scary lol


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I bought 600 shares just after the IPO (was shut out of the IPO). It is a buy and hold for our portfolio. Split-adjusted cost is $17.45 and looking at cutting the holding in half. Waiting for current quarterly results. 

It seems that the skeptical US analysts finally embraced them last summer. About 2 dozen analysts are calling for 30+% growth next year and, if they blow past that, then the current price is secure. PEG of 1.98 so still a bit high.

It is on my watch list.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

kcowan said:


> It is on my watch list.


It's been on my watch-list for soooooooo long! SIGH.

Kudos to all those who believed in this stock/bought/held/profited!


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Although trendy, in the end it is a stock with a P/E of 70. Great if you bought lower, but its extremely risky for anyone to get in now.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The next quarter will establish the short-term direction of this stock. If they continue to blow the doors of their growth, then the PEG of 1.98 may come into line. (I am comfortable with 1.5 or less.) But it is a growth story so God help them if the wheels fall off. Most people estimate their price at about $70- so they are on borrowed time even now.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

My vote is they will keep on trucking for a little while. I don't own stock but I am somewhat familiar with the brand. My girlfriend is pretty "crazed" for it. She buys a substantial amount of items for herself and I get dragged in there all the time. She resells a lot as well (Rarely loses money surprisingly) . At least in Calgary the stores are generally pretty busy and familiar feeling. It's nice to note that the staff are pretty much ideal in terms of service, and they don't usually hover after you shoo them away. The staff generally seem pretty pumped to be there, so I assume they are happy enough at work to appear to be loving it, even if it isn't always genuine. 

I kind of think Lulu is a fad, along with Yoga and most fitness oriented trends, but the health aspect is there so it will always stick to some degree. People need to become healthier as obesity is becoming epidemic. Regardless of the end state of Lulu, I still think there is lots of upside before they run out of growth, but eventually Yoga will be something you just do like Joe Blow lifting weights.

I think about buying in all the time, have been since $25, but I've never pulled the trigger. Over the last few years I was just too green to even take on idea of buying a growth stock. Now that I want in I just need a fat correction or something. 70 p/e is still 70 p/e for me and it's just too high right now.


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## Kaitlyn (May 13, 2011)

kcowan said:


> I bought 600 shares just after the IPO (was shut out of the IPO). It is a buy and hold for our portfolio. Split-adjusted cost is $17.45 and looking at cutting the holding in half. Waiting for current quarterly results.
> 
> It seems that the skeptical US analysts finally embraced them last summer. About 2 dozen analysts are calling for 30+% growth next year and, if they blow past that, then the current price is secure. PEG of 1.98 so still a bit high.
> 
> It is on my watch list.


Dannnggg! I HAD 600 ish shares but even at a higher price than you. Congrats to you. Never should have sold half my shares


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## crazyjackcsa (Aug 8, 2010)

The "fashion" market is incredibly trendy and so are the stocks. One minutes craze is the next minutes old news. Starter, Mod Robes, Hilfiger, and whole lot more, come and gone.


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## Bullish (Mar 17, 2012)

Not really an analytical approach but I find my friends that like LULU stuff are just like my friends that like APPLE products. They like it, they want it, and they will pay *whatever* it costs to have it. Its funny because I know people that are frugal with everything but when a new ipad or Lulu sale is going on, they line up and wait for hours to shell out the big bucks!


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

Lulu could still be a takeover?there marketcap is still very small and a player like nike or adidas could make a go @ them(which is'nt bad for shareholders)Hilfiger got boughtout by celvin klien.....pretty sure starter got bought out too-would'nt rule it out.Anyone think that could still happen to lulu.


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## mork (Apr 3, 2009)

I've had LLL for quite a while as well and have seen great gains. I still see the share price heading upwards. Certainly it is a richly priced stock, but they have come nowhere near saturating even the N.American marketplace. Reading the details, their website does amazing sales and a large portion of total sales are attributable to online sales.. good brand, great margins, low overhead..


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## Mall Guy (Sep 14, 2011)

jcgd said:


> My vote is they will keep on trucking for a little while. . .
> 
> I kind of think Lulu is a fad, along with Yoga and most fitness oriented trends, but the health aspect is there so it will always stick to some degree. People need to become healthier as obesity is becoming epidemic. Regardless of the end state of Lulu, I still think there is lots of upside before they run out of growth, but eventually Yoga will be something you just do like Joe Blow lifting weights.


Agree they have some runway left, but think of what an aging population is going to do to sales . . . not sure they are a staple at the retirement home . . . they will need to re-invert themselves pretty soon . . . anyone remember when "Northern Reflections", "Cotton Ginny", "Tabi", "Big Steel Man", "Dapper Dan" even "The Gap". . . let alone any frozen yogurt, bagel, and T-shirt shops were #1 and could do no wrong retailers ???

It's fashion, trends come and go . . . I'm keeping all my wide and skinny ties!


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## rusty23 (Jan 25, 2012)

also agree on "fashion" or "trendy" market once the ladies decide it's no longer the thing to wear it will tank. Women and children(teens) are the driving factor of the retail economy imo (how many mens stores are in the malls???)


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## RoR (Jan 18, 2012)

I love their stuff, durable, washer & dryer, doesn't shrink, doesn't pill. I shop here, and Value Village. 

I'm still wearing stuff from 5+ years ago and it looks fine. The stock, too volatile for my liking. I would *love* to own the stock, like I love my Lulu pants, but just can't buy it...


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I think it's getting into the mature side of the trend. All the young women who want it are already customers. I see moms starting to adopt it and I think that will be wrapping it up. 

I don't think it's age dependent as much as overweight dependent. The largest size is 12 or 14. Anyone big is pretty much SOL in terms of choice of fitting lulu clothing.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

LULU earnings will be announced on Thursday, March 22, 2012.
I suspect earnings will be good and the stock will surge to $77.
I hold no position.

Someday, I will short this high P/E stock. But, that day is not today.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Bullish View on LULU to $100
I am skeptical but I love to read about it!


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## groceryalerts (May 5, 2009)

As a BCer - This is the #1 choice for fitness freaks in BC. They are even starting to sell men's clothing. I hate the stock price (sold at $20 before) but I love their margins.


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## Kaitlyn (May 13, 2011)

groceryalerts said:


> As a BCer - This is the #1 choice for fitness freaks in BC. They are even starting to sell men's clothing. I hate the stock price (sold at $20 before) but I love their margins.


Ouch - hope you made profit on the $20. I still wish I DIDN'T sell half my holdings. What a problem. At least I still have some! Wish I had more though..

I'm in at $33ish. I held when it dropped down to like $8. Kinda wish I bought a HELL OF A LOT more at $8. I clearly believed in it, holding on tightly to all I had


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Lots of moms wear it around here.

I know people that consider it their treat to get a new Lulu piece, it's aspirational.

I see it as a girly underarmor.

Premium product, but I think it actually delivers.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Set for a pullback again today on outlook.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Being as fresh to investing as I am, I don't really know what price I would in at. I mean, p/e of 72 (it whatever) from 77 is still rediculous. If it bombs I'll load up.


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## mork (Apr 3, 2009)

jcgd said:


> Being as fresh to investing as I am, I don't really know what price I would in at. I mean, p/e of 72 (it whatever) from 77 is still rediculous. If it bombs I'll load up.


I don't follow. If it bombs, it won't come back for a looooooong time (if ever). If/when it starts to tank, time to sell and forget it ever existed. Honestly, don't expect that for a while..  given today's release, growth continues to outshine just about anyone in retail.

I've heard rumours of a separate men's brand being considered, probably similar to what they've done with their Avivva Athletica brand for youth. I personally believe there's a lot of growth potential there yet as well... and if you travel a lot you'll know that their brand is still stuck in regional pockets.. it the thing to wear in one area, and entirely unheard of in the next.


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## sam (Mar 16, 2012)

LLL down almost 8% are you guys buying ?


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## Kaitlyn (May 13, 2011)

sam said:


> LLL down almost 8% are you guys buying ?


Why was there such a drop today?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Poor guidance. It's on the news.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

This one would look interesting to me around $40 or so.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Kaitlyn said:


> Why was there such a drop today?


All you need to do is go to the official site and always be informed & current with press releases of the stocks you own!

http://investor.lululemon.com/releases.cfm

The stock does not stay down for long.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

It is traders playing the swings. There will be a bounce back.


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

The stock doesn't stay down long, but have they been reducing guidance estimates. from my very light following of this company, even in the thick of the last recession, they were boosting guidance and growth estimates ALL the time.

I think a good/real sign of trouble brewing in the economy is when these 'higher' end luxury retailers start forecasting lower sales, companies like Lululemon, Nordstrom, Tiffanies, Coach etc. those 4 Co.s in particular have done well through the past 5 years, but have all been dialing down future projections.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

Depends-there are "hidden" jems in the retailers space.Check-out francesca corp-small cap usa retailer(i own shares)there guidance is soild,they reported yesterday and they poped 20%,Killed.....(there medium end,young women clothing co-same client base as lulu)I don't think the economy is as bad as everyone thinks.Lulu is "losing" because i think imo there brand has ran it's course with the masses(reality stars are'nt wearing them anymore-it's not new,hip..the brand seems dated).Looking back at lulu will be like looking back at @ popular niche brands of yesteryear-like mondetta clothing(don't know what made me think of them but) ect ect.I think the company would have poor guidance in a true global bull market(M.O)I'm not noticing lulu on the street anymore as was the case a few years ago.


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

donald said:


> Depends-there are "hidden" jems in the retailers space.Check-out francesca corp-small cap usa retailer(i own shares)there guidance is soild,they reported yesterday and they poped 20%,Killed.....(there medium end,young women clothing co-same client base as lulu)I don't think the economy is as bad as everyone thinks.Lulu is "losing" because i think imo there brand has ran it's course with the masses(reality stars are'nt wearing them anymore-it's not new,hip..the brand seems dated).Looking back at lulu will be like looking back at @ popular niche brands of yesteryear-like mondetta clothing(don't know what made me think of them but) ect ect.I think the company would have poor guidance in a true global bull market(M.O)I'm not noticing lulu on the street anymore as was the case a few years ago.


Small US retailers are a great place to browse. ala Peter Lynch. Restaurants too


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

The question is whether LLL is a new CROX (Crocks) or something more durable. It feels fad-ish to me.

They are making inexpensive, high mark-up clothing. There is lots of room for the more mass merchant apparel makers to copy the model and compete on price. Then you have the brand. Not sure it has a lot of staying power.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I think it is not a fad - the stuff is just high quality and the people who like it buy it and continue to buy it. They really like the shopping experience and will go back. The brand definitely has some cache but I think the drawing feature is the quality of the clothing and how good women look in them and how much they like looking good in them. I have doubts about how much they can penetrate the male market given the nature of their offerings but I have little doubt that they have lots of expansion opportunities in the USA and Europe in the next few years.

So I do like the company but I have a limit of not paying more than a PE of 30 on any non-technology firm or junior miner. They are already well-established and I think a 30 x PE is a reasonable share price which would put my target price around $40 per share.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

The thing about lulu(my take)is they were @ the perfect time and in the perfect market to catch a cultural"tipping point"-YOGA.(granted it moved to the masses,non yoga)They rode yoga,yoga did'nt ride lulu.How popular is yoga in emg markets?(growth)Do women in brazil,china,india even care about yoga?Do they have the same gym culture as NA?In the usa/canada the gym is half working-out and half social activity(were people "feel" the need to dress up and look good(trendy,hip,crowd following ect)And there so branded to yoga/gym niche there brand can't/won't shake that(if they try to move into other apperal areas)I think they could be a epic short(if they don't sell out soon)


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## Young&Ambitious (Aug 11, 2010)

Lululemon's yoga pants helped to put Vancouver on a least well dressed city list due to our tendency to wear yoga pants to everywhere but the yoga studio (ie. work, school, the grocery store, etc). Another differentiation factor is GUYS love them on women. I had an ex-boyfriend who bought me a pair for that reason and I have a girlfriend who buys it because she feels like she looks good in them. People don't have that association with yoga pants you buy from Zellers you know?

That being said, I think they'll have some success going international BUT I'd feel better putting my dollars elsewhere. To each their own.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

I agree 110% young&ambitious!women(some)look amazing in yoga pants!No doubt about that!That double strand band 2 draw the eye to the hip and waist was Smart of lulu!They did make sweat pants sexy!Come to think of it,they were selling sex.One thing is for sure they "hit" curious how the company will make out going foward.(my take is not well,who knows)


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## rusty23 (Jan 25, 2012)

Young&Ambitious said:


> Lululemon's yoga pants helped to put Vancouver on a least well dressed city list due to our tendency to wear yoga pants to everywhere but the yoga studio (ie. work, school, the grocery store, etc). Another differentiation factor is GUYS love them on women. I had an ex-boyfriend who bought me a pair for that reason and I have a girlfriend who buys it because she feels like she looks good in them. People don't have that association with yoga pants you buy from Zellers you know?
> 
> That being said, I think they'll have some success going international BUT I'd feel better putting my dollars elsewhere. To each their own.


as my friend said "i won't buy them cause it's too expensive but all my friends do cause they make thier asses look good in them so they'll be fine" 

company is fine but valuation is so high


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I was talking about Lulu with my GF who is a huge Lulu fan girl. She's been into them since the beginning. Anyway, she has been saying the the prices are skyrocketing and the quality has been steadily dropping. Even I can tell just by feeling one of her old pieces next to a new piece. I missed the boat three years ago when she told me to buy stock in them. Anyway, she's pretty upset with them and she's been very dedicated over the years. Me thinks it's time to sell or short.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

jcgd said:


> I was talking about Lulu with my GF who is a huge Lulu fan girl. She's been into them since the beginning. Anyway, she has been saying the the prices are skyrocketing and the quality has been steadily dropping. Even I can tell just by feeling one of her old pieces next to a new piece. I missed the boat three years ago when she told me to buy stock in them. Anyway, she's pretty upset with them and she's been very dedicated over the years. Me thinks it's time to sell or short.


well .
did u short it?
me thinks does not cut it right?
by the way my apaologies to ya also.
it was a misunderstanding.
people here were making fun of the way i write before.
i am not Canadian so my language skills are not so good.
cheers and GL


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

No, I'm not short. I don't have any non registered accounts so it's not possible. Even if I did, I don't think I'd be shorting anything. I have much to learn before I would even dip my toes in. If I was long right now on Lulu I would probably start selling out of my position. 

I still like Lulu but I think it's only a matter of time before the earnings start to catch up with the price. I think the p/e is a little frothy and would be more attractive to me in the low 20s. I doubt it would happen but if a little negativity works its way in I think the shares could get hit. 

Just my thoughts, I have no money on this. 

Also, I see Lulu as more of a fad than a everlasting fashion style. Eventually I think the allure will wear off and the growth will slow. I guess I could say I think the company could mature due to changing styles before it would natural mature though market saturation. I don't know where the dust would settle with respect to Lulu having too many stores, just the right number of stores or even more demand.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

You know, LLL has never met my screen because 

a) P/E has been astronomical, usually > 50 and 
b) no dividends, which wouldn't have been high because of (a) anyway

But their Q4 guidance is 74 cents a share. That puts them on an annualized P/E, albeit from one of their best quarters, of 23. Still too high, but it's the first time I've been able to calculate a P/E for them on any basis of less than 40.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

jcgd said:


> No, I'm not short. I don't have any non registered accounts so it's not possible. Even if I did, I don't think I'd be shorting anything. I have much to learn before I would even dip my toes in. If I was long right now on Lulu I would probably start selling out of my position.
> 
> I still like Lulu but I think it's only a matter of time before the earnings start to catch up with the price. I think the p/e is a little frothy and would be more attractive to me in the low 20s. I doubt it would happen but if a little negativity works its way in I think the shares could get hit.
> 
> ...


i see .
yes u need a non registerd acct.
i deffiniteely have no idea about that mkt anyway.
i am testing my tech arena right now and boy is that thing tough to nail.
u depend on analysts and whatever else.
as for negativity.
do not worry it is coming .

GL


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Lululemon is *down 12%* in after hours trading.

CEO Christine Day has announced that she’ll step down when a successor is found.

But also of interest is, 
Why Lululemon is quitting the Toronto Stock Exchange

This means that L̶L̶L̶.̶T̶O̶ will deslist from the TSX. 
Canadians investors will have to look at the US ticker LULU instead.


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## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

What happened to people that own shares?


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## praire_guy (Sep 8, 2011)

RoR said:


> I love their stuff, durable, washer & dryer, doesn't shrink, doesn't pill. I shop here, and Value Village.
> 
> I'm still wearing stuff from 5+ years ago and it looks fine. The stock, too volatile for my liking. I would *love* to own the stock, like I love my Lulu pants, but just can't buy it...


Isn't that the old lulu, canadian made quality warranties for life?
That's why you paid a huge premium. 

I've heard now its made over seas, overpriced crap that no longer has a warranty.


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## Freedom45 (Jan 29, 2011)

Down another ~16% this morning. Anyone considering buying? A CEO stepping down, rumors of slipping product quality, and the stock being pulled from the TSX all concern me a bit, but their quarterly results don't seem to support this magnitude of a drop.

Thoughts?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

14 million shares traded. Obviously a hot stock.

Cancelling the listing on TSX where 100,000 shares trade, while over 2 million trade on NASDAQ seems to be logical.

The CEO stepping down without a succession plan seems to be odd. Maybe she got criticism for the product problem from the board. By all accounts she has performed very well.

LULU remains my premier retail holding. This too shall pass.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Freedom45 said:


> Down another ~16% this morning. Anyone considering buying? A CEO stepping down, rumors of slipping product quality, and the stock being pulled from the TSX all concern me a bit, but their quarterly results don't seem to support this magnitude of a drop.
> 
> Thoughts?


Lulu has awesome product, it is premium positioned priced and sells well. Part of that is quality and part of that is the styling & cool factor. None of that has really changed.
I think they're a bit expensive, and though they might grow into their valuation, they aren't there yet, with the CEO leaving and a the product performance/quality issue, there are some questions if they can continue to grow and justify their price.


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## Kaitlyn (May 13, 2011)

I own both LLL and LULU

What is going to happen to my shares of LLL on June 25?

Do they get converted to LULU? I might "gain" a bit due to the exchange, but then I'll also get hit with an exchange fee when I sell? Plus it gets a little complicated buying in CAD and selling for a USD profit...

Help! What happens!?


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Kaitlyn mentioned in the alternative thread that LLL.TO has now become LULU.

So basically, you still own the stock. It's just held in a different currency now (i.e. USD)
When it comes time to sell, you'll have USD.

As far as taxation goes, for your non-registered account, you'll need to calculate the value of the USD sell price in Canadian Dollars (CAD). You can then record those capital gains on your income tax form.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

If you bought in C$ in Canada, when you transact in USD, you just convert them to C$ to calculate your capital gains/losses.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Well, IF I actually had a short position in LULU I would be closing it now. I always hoped for this drop in the stock so I could get in, but I think I will avoid this stock for now. It may rebound, but I don't like the direction of the company.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

jcgd said:


> Well, IF I actually had a short position in LULU I would be closing it now. I always hoped for this drop in the stock so I could get in, but I think I will avoid this stock for now. It may rebound, but I don't like the direction of the company.


yoga pants are a commodity and there is just so much innovation you can do, they are easily copied and sold for lower price points which dozens and dozens of good companies are doing right now

the brand itself is still strong ... if they can branch out into menswear and broaden into a wider casual line, they might do ok ... i wouldn't buy them


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## the_apprentice (Jan 31, 2013)

fatcat said:


> yoga pants are a commodity and there is just so much innovation you can do, they are easily copied and sold for lower price points which dozens and dozens of good companies are doing right now
> 
> the brand itself is still strong ... if they can branch out into menswear and broaden into a wider casual line, they might do ok ... i wouldn't buy them


Exactly. Several retailers have slowly been introducing activewear into their assortment; expect even more competition. Lululemon is a great brand with a premium product that has unlimited growth potential. I think they will do great in the future and I love their product/service, but I wouldn't buy them at this moment either.


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## PoolAndRapid (Dec 3, 2013)

..


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