# Quebec separation looming its ugly head once again… Cdn stocks going to take hit?



## Siwash

Quebecor's Peladeau is now running for the PQ… Peladaeu: "I want to leave my children a nation" - I think Quebec separatists are going to win the next referendum… they finally have a big business giant backing it… which adds legitimacy. I think Canada as it is constituted at the moment is potentially toast with this development…

So, if a referendum is coming, how many of you feel that Cdn stocks are going to take a hit? This could get ugly…

Long term, I feel Canada is better off w/o Quebec as the province is a drain right now on the tax payer.. but short term, I see dollar plummeting.. which could force and interest rate rise. Stocks may be hurt by this..

Lets start the debate!


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## thompsg4416

Maybe the Russians could take them over to!


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## MichelR

Well, that's just great. Just as I was telling myself that I had a lot of stuff to take into account with rearranging some funds in my RRSP. Now add that. Plus it sure would suck if I had to show a passport to go visit my family. Hopefully I won't have to find out. But with Radio-Canada and the Quebecor media empire (no matter what they are saying since PKP announced he was running for office), they sure have most of the Quebec media cheerleading for them now.

On topic... It's all speculation at this point - "who knows". I figure there may be a temporary set-back if a date for a referendum is announced. Then if the "yes" wins, it will most likely depend on whether we're all on the war path or what - i.e. would this be a done in relative harmony, or would it be as childish as politics have been these past few years (unfortunately I have to bet on the latter). Some may just see it as a buying opportunity and that may help cushion the blow a little bit.

I can't remember if there was any visible effect on the Canadian dollar before the 1995 referendum?


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## MoreMiles

France should come back and make their claim. 

Come on, just let Qc go... They are already privileged in all regards and still not happy? Enough already... 

By the way, a country does not need to have adjacent lands, like Washington and Alaska. So we will be fine with Ontario and New Brunswick.


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## gibor365

_I feel Canada is better off w/o Quebec as the province is a drain right now on the tax payer.. but short term, I see dollar plummeting.. which could force and interest rate rise. Stocks may be hurt by this..
_ This is also my opinion....


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## gibor365

MoreMiles said:


> By the way, a country does not need to have adjacent lands, like Washington and Alaska. So we will be fine with Ontario and New Brunswick.


... or Kaliningrad district and Russia....more thanthan hostaile countries in between


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## andrewf

Canada isn't a viable country without Quebec. The Atlantic would not longer be territorially contiguous. Ontario would comprise about half the population, which becomes untenable for the rest of Canada.

All the people calling for Quebec to leave are being incredibly short-sighted.

Personally, I don't think that a referendum will be successful. I doubt the PQ will win a majority, and so it is likely not even on the table.


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## Causalien

I think a better option is to carve Quebec into its French and English sectors. Obviously Quebec city will belong to the new Quebec country whilst Montreal will belong to the rest of Canada. Let Canada have a southern channel linking both sides since Quebec probably doesn't want to deal with USA anyway and Quebec can have the mineral reserves in the vast unexplored north to give it a head start. 

Honestly, the only loss for Canada is the fact that you can't link the two side together due to Quebec. But there will be synergy as both Canada and Quebec can reduce extra overhead of the dual language requirements in certain parts of the government.


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## yyz

But we're a viable country with separation talks always at the back of Quebec's mind? I think Quebec would be in for a reality check if they went out on their own.
Seriously we (the rest of Canada) should beat them to the punch,hold our own referendum and see if we want them in Canada.


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## Butters

I think Canada needs Quebec, they have 8 million tax payers there don't be so naive and say they are a drain!
Tons of fresh water and it connects the country to the Atlantic provinces...


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## Causalien

The last time we had a referendum in Quebec. It brought Toronto into prominence because of the large exodus. We also had a heck of a drop in housing prices in Quebec. I know because I was smack in the middle of that drop. Lots of bitterness it created for me. To this day I still remembered the event with lots of anger and have had some people disown me as a friend for choosing to run away from Quebec, its taxes, snow and the need to speak a language whose accent I can't quite master.


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## gibor365

Everyone doing referendum to separate , Crimea, Kosovo, Schotland, Quebec.... Maybe we need to do referendum in Ontario to separate from Canada?!


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## fraser

I don't think Ontario should have a referendum to separate. They cannot afford it.

Ontario is currently a 'have not' province in Canada and will continue to be one. Ontario public debt is reaching the same level as Quebec's (about $18,5K per person vs. $21.5K for Quebec). But Quebec has just about reached a balanced budget. Ontario is still running huge deficits and these will continue for a number of years. The writing is on the wall unless Ontario politicians get serious and Ontario voters of all stripes wake up and smell the coffee.


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## sags

Actually, Ontario sends 11 Billion dollars a year more to Ottawa than it gets back.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/04/01/equalization-payments-ontario-canada_n_2992486.html


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## andrewf

Causalien said:


> The last time we had a referendum in Quebec. It brought Toronto into prominence because of the large exodus. We also had a heck of a drop in housing prices in Quebec. I know because I was smack in the middle of that drop. Lots of bitterness it created for me. To this day I still remembered the event with lots of anger and have had some people disown me as a friend for choosing to run away from Quebec, its taxes, snow and the need to speak a language whose accent I can't quite master.


Toronto was already Canada's leading city in 1995. It did get a bit of a boost due to the resulting exodus of anglos.


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## fraser

That may well be true. But my understanding is that Ontario is a 'have not' province in terms of equalization payments in Canada. I believe that there are only four 'have' provinces at the moment...BC, Alberta, Sask, and Newfoundland.



Have Not Provinces: for fiscal year 2013/14:

Quebec: $7.83 billion

Ontario: $3.17 billion

Manitoba: $1.79 billion

New Brunswick: $1.51 billion

Nova Scotia: $1.46 billion

Prince Edward Island: $340 mill


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## andrewf

I think the more recent tide of alienation stems somewhat from our current gov'ts total lack of support and engagement in Quebec. There was a time when they tried to be competitive in the province. Now they are battling for 3rd place in the polls in the province. I think things would be a lot better if Quebec were better represented in our government than it is today, which is likely to happen in 2015.


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## Islenska

Ho-Hum........
Out West the provinces are doing very well financially, someone in Brandon Mb. has way more in common with their USA neighbour a few hours south,------hey that's a thought.

Never forget Canadian blood was spilled in 2 World Wars for our country, a united Canada.

Can already hear the expert panels on CBC with in-depth analysis......where is Duffy when we need him!


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## andrewf

fraser said:


> That may well be true. But my understanding is that Ontario is a 'have not' province in terms of equalization payments in Canada. I believe that there are only four 'have' provinces at the moment...BC, Alberta, Sask, and Newfoundland.
> 
> 
> 
> Have Not Provinces: for fiscal year 2013/14:
> 
> Quebec: $7.83 billion
> 
> Ontario: $3.17 billion
> 
> Manitoba: $1.79 billion
> 
> New Brunswick: $1.51 billion
> 
> Nova Scotia: $1.46 billion
> 
> Prince Edward Island: $340 mill


"Only" 4. That's roughly what one should expect. It's also worth noting that all four the current 'have's have not so long ago been on the receiving end of equalization.


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## Nemo2

I seem to recall that Rene Levesque had a (half-assed) 'contingency plan' to approach the US for absorption when he was PQ Premier......(why he would have figured he'd get a better (or even an equal) deal from the Americans is beyond me).


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## fraser

The list of 'haves' and 'have nots' has changed simply because our economies are changing and transforming. Unfortunately our collective group of politicians are about 15 years too late in recognizing and planning for these changes.

I predict that things will only get worse for a number of Provinces on that list-the ones that ignoring reality, loosing high paying jobs, and incurring ever increasing public deficits.


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## MoreMiles

Andrew, better represented in our government? Really?! Why is every second prime minister is a francophone? Like Jean Chretian and Pierre Trudeau Etc. And now Justin next. We have 10 provinces so even with one province they get to run Canada so often. Even with a population percentage count, it is too frequent. 

So how is the rest of Canada not treating Quebec well? I think Harper is doing a good job.


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## gibor365

Than maybe Canada should split ?! Every province becomes independent country?! Have it like EU.... one currency , but different countries... Thus hockey Olimpics , World Cup will be much more interesting to watch....


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## gibor365

MoreMiles said:


> So how is the rest of Canada not treating Quebec well? I think Harper is doing a good job.


CCCP was treating Baltics Respublic the best, and they always wanted to separate and were first republic to get separated... 
C'est la vie


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## andrewf

MoreMiles: the CPC are running at like 10% support in Quebec. This is abysmal. The Liberals led by son of Pierre Elliot "NEP" Trudeau are far more popular in Alberta. 

The fact that our governing party has only a handful of MPs, and most of them not members of cabinet means Quebec has little representation in our current (as in today) government. It's not surprising that there is some alienation.


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## fraser

Their is a feeling of alienation with the Harper Gov't right across the country-regardless of how many seats they have in your province. In ours, they have most of the seats. But it means zero because our MP's and junior token Cabinet Ministers have no say whatsoever.. They take their instructions from the PMO. They are NOT allowed to open their mouths in the House without having the words preapproved and usually altered by the PMO. 

How is that for representation??? We have only had one Tory MP in Edmonton who had the guts to say no, enough is enough, and resign to sit as an independent. The rest are either sheep or hoping for a promotion or appointment of some sort that will give them more income...like Vic Toews.


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## andrewf

I'm assuming BC, right? They at least still have decent support there. They have collapsed in Quebec, in distant fourth place.


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## fraser

No, I live in Alberta. And, after Brad Butt, we probably have the worst MP in the country....Rob Anders. He reigns at the pleasure of the PMO. All efforts to have him challenged at the riding level have be negated by the PMO.

But there is hope. The new MP pension scheme means that for some MP's it will more advantageous to retire, take the MP's pension, and then lap up a well paying patronage appointment. I am told they will get less pension, and pay more money for it if they stay on. The bottom line is a significant motivator...even to our pubic spirited MP's!


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## gibor365

Assuming Quebec got independence.... and what if First Nations who lives in Nnortern QC would like to get referendum to join to Canada?! Would it be legal?! Or it's up to Obama?!


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## thompsg4416

Great question Gibor. I for one have always been a proponent of letting Quebec leave the federation with what they came in with. 

I'll be honest I'm nervous about a Canada*without Quebec. Its all we've ever known and we've been very successful as a team. 

That said I feel the relationship is sour. One takes and one gives. If they want to go on their merry way bon voyage. It'll be a tough couple years in the beginning but may be better in the long run. Maybe.


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## Siwash

andrewf said:


> Canada isn't a viable country without Quebec. The Atlantic would not longer be territorially contiguous. Ontario would comprise about half the population, which becomes untenable for the rest of Canada.
> 
> All the people calling for Quebec to leave are being incredibly short-sighted.
> 
> Personally, I don't think that a referendum will be successful. I doubt the PQ will win a majority, and so it is likely not even on the table.


Quebek is an economic basket case. How can you say ROC isn't viable? And please don't tell me it has to do with culture… I don't know a single person (other than the chick my cousin married from Montreal, who's actually an allophone) who speaks any sort of working french… and other than poutine (no thank you), how does the rest of Canada benefit from Quebec?

As far as the imbalance you refer to, I totally disagree… if anything, Ontario should be worried with the growth of the West… 


Actually, there's more balance.. two large centres of strength (if Ontario still has any left) instead of three..


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## Siwash

Causalien said:


> I think a better option is to carve Quebec into its French and English sectors. Obviously Quebec city will belong to the new Quebec country whilst Montreal will belong to the rest of Canada. Let Canada have a southern channel linking both sides since Quebec probably doesn't want to deal with USA anyway and Quebec can have the mineral reserves in the vast unexplored north to give it a head start.
> 
> Honestly, the only loss for Canada is the fact that you can't link the two side together due to Quebec. But there will be synergy as both Canada and Quebec can reduce extra overhead of the dual language requirements in certain parts of the government.


Quebec will have to deal with America… they run this continent, remember!?! 

Free trade agreements will be interesting… no more protection of language…


Business will breathe sigh of relief when they consider that they won't need to make all their services bilingual


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## Siwash

SheaButters said:


> I think Canada needs Quebec, they have 8 million tax payers there don't be so naive and say they are a drain!
> Tons of fresh water and it connects the country to the Atlantic provinces...


If Quebec separates, we'll gain 3 or 4 million of those tax payers! Mtl will be hollowed out - Toronto and Vancouver will be the biggest beneficiaries


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Not ready to wade into this one yet (at least not without Brown Bess). Rather, wanted to point you to Morningstar's Andex chart on the off-chance you've never seen it. You can pick up Que refs 1 and 2 in 1980 and late '95 and a whole lot of other things like inflation, major corporate events, years of red gov't - all with the indices plodding along. Fun bedtime reading. 
http://corporate.morningstar.com/ca/documents/MarketingOneSheets/Andex%20Wall_CAN_ENG_2013.pdf


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## fraser

Yes. And there is another negative impact on Quebec when people leave.

Those that leave are typically more upwardly mobile, ie they can secure jobs as good or better than they currently have in Quebec. They tend to be younger with a skill or with post secondary training/education. I suspect that the bottom line is that they pay more than the average person in Provincial income tax and on average consume less Provincial services like health care.
From a tax received/services consumed perspective they most likely represent a significant net loss for the province.


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## andrewf

Siwash said:


> Quebek is an economic basket case. How can you say ROC isn't viable? And please don't tell me it has to do with culture… I don't know a single person (other than the chick my cousin married from Montreal, who's actually an allophone) who speaks any sort of working french… and other than poutine (no thank you), how does the rest of Canada benefit from Quebec?
> 
> As far as the imbalance you refer to, I totally disagree… if anything, Ontario should be worried with the growth of the West…
> 
> 
> Actually, there's more balance.. two large centres of strength (if Ontario still has any left) instead of three..


So Alberta and BC will think everything is groovy if Ontario has >50% of MPs? You sure they wouldn't want to do their own thing rather than be ruled by Ontario? And why would Canada make sense if it remained as a rump of Ontario + the Atlantic provinces--in other words, a Quebec sandwich? One half of Canada would not be continguous by land or sea from the other (unless you're talking about by port through Hudson Bay.

I think you're unreasonably discounting Ontario's strength as a diversified economy. The last few years have been a bit rough, but nothing compared to what the resource economies experience when the bottom falls out on commodity prices.

I really don't expect a successful referendum, so really it is moot. It's not helpful to have all the hateful folks in RoC spitting in Quebec's face though.


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## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Canada isn't a viable country without Quebec.


is it a viable country _with_ quebec ? ... people get tired of being threatened 

plenty of non-contiguous countries operate quite well ... 

i say ... aller


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## avrex

Quebec will never separate.

Poll finds 61 per cent of Quebecers opposed to sovereignty.

Can we get back to talking about couch potato portfolios?


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## braintootired

The PQ might still win a majority and wreck the province economically. Well not just economically.


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## Longwinston

yyz said:


> But we're a viable country with separation talks always at the back of Quebec's mind? I think Quebec would be in for a reality check if they went out on their own.
> Seriously we (the rest of Canada) should beat them to the punch,hold our own referendum and see if we want them in Canada.


This is exactly how I feel as well. 100% over the hostage taking. Let's have the ROC vote on whether we want to keep them in or not


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## Longwinston

andrewf said:


> I think the more recent tide of alienation stems somewhat from our current gov'ts total lack of support and engagement in Quebec. There was a time when they tried to be competitive in the province. Now they are battling for 3rd place in the polls in the province. I think things would be a lot better if Quebec were better represented in our government than it is today, which is likely to happen in 2015.


You would be discounting 40+ years of history to hold this belief.


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## dubmac

Consider this article by Conrad Black
You will need a thesaurus though - Conrad can wield a pen as nicely as he can wear a pinstripe jailbird uniform!
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/03/08/conrad-black-breaking-quebecs-logjam/

In the event the PQ does hold a referendum, I don't expect the same emotional response from English Canada as was the case in 1995. 
These two solitudes play politics very differently - In Quebec - politics is a bloodsport, and (some) English Canadian politicians tend to be far too subserving and bluthering IMO. 
They are a proud people - I do not mean them any mean them any harm nor ill will.
My only concern is that the question on separation is very clear and will result in a decisive consequence. These PQ politicians like to have a question that does the exact opposite. They want their cake and the want to eat it too!

If they do separate - then then should agree to take their portion of the national debt, hand in their Canadian passports and relinquish the Canadian dollar. 
I don't think that most would agree to these kinds of conditions.
If English Canadian politicans are smart they will stay quiet and avoid being drawn into many of the minefields that the PQ are experts at assembling.


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## dogcom

Living in BC and constantly being ripped off and threatened by Quebec puts me in the camp of I don't care what they do.


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## gibor365

Exactly what I was talking about above:
*Letter: A separating Quebec could not just take First Nations lands with it*
_It seems that Pauline Marois is delusional in her thoughts about separating Quebec from Canada. Marois is not taking into consideration the approximately 33 First Nations peoples who live in Quebec and own the land they are living on.

Most, if not all, of these First Nations will not accept a separation from Canada. So how can she be pushing forward without that on her mind?

We don’t live in Quebec and we don’t live in Canada, we live within our respective territories, and we are not going anywhere.

We don’t want to be consulted, there is nothing to consult — you can’t separate land you don’t own.

Timmy Norton

Kahnawake
_


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## MrMatt

Your question answers itself.

"It seems that Pauline Marois is delusional"
"Marois is not taking into consideration" 
"So how can she be pushing forward "

Sounds right to me.


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## brad

Siwash said:


> Business will breathe sigh of relief when they consider that they won't need to make all their services bilingual


There are about 1 million francophone Canadians outside of Québec. New Brunswick is officially bilingual (about 30% of the population is francophone), and both Manitoba and Ontario have sizeable French-speaking populations. I was at a big party in eastern Ontario on Saturday and not a word of English was spoken all night.


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## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> If they do separate - then then should agree to take their portion of the national debt, hand in their Canadian passports and relinquish the Canadian dollar.
> I don't think that most would agree to these kinds of conditions.
> If English Canadian politicans are smart they will stay quiet and avoid being drawn into many of the minefields that the PQ are experts at assembling.



yea that's where it's at. Also to deal with: the airports, sea ports, railway lands, buildings, national parks, army & air force bases, military college st-jean & national parks that either belong to the federal goverment or else are under federal control. A majority of quebecers supporting outright separation still believe the army will bail out the future state during national disasters, the currency will remain the same & even their passports will continue to be furnished by ottawa.

all this is why another referendum won't succeed, in fact likely won't even be held. It's fat times that produce ardent separatists in quebec, not lean times. Right now the whole of eastern canada is going lean. Newfoundland excepted.


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## thompsg4416

brad said:


> There are about 1 million francophone Canadians outside of Québec. New Brunswick is officially bilingual (about 30% of the population is francophone), and both Manitoba and Ontario have sizeable French-speaking populations. I was at a big party in eastern Ontario on Saturday and not a word of English was spoken all night.


You say 1 million, as per wiki I got about 600k. I feel without Quebec it would be hard to justify bilingualism at the federal level. I for one would not support it.

"In 2011, just over 6.8 million Canadians spoke French at home. Of these, about 6.2 million or 91.5% resided in Quebec." 

To break that down - if Quebec separated, Canada would be left with approx 24 million people - of which approx only 600,000 speak french or 2.5%. This would likely increase slightly as some French speakers would leave Quebec for the ROC. Not enough in my opinion to justify continued bilingualism at the federal level. Punjabi and Mandarin would be almost as prevalent as french. Regional bilingualism would continue in NB and parts of Ontario. The numbers just don't add up.


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## brad

thompsg4416 said:


> You say 1 million, as per wiki I got about 600k.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_language_in_Canada

"Additionally, about one million native francophones live in other provinces, forming a sizable minority in New Brunswick, which is officially a bilingual province, where about one third of the population are francophone. There are also fairly large French-speaking communities in Manitoba and Ontario, where francophones make up about five percent of the population, as well as significantly smaller communities in Alberta, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan. Many, but not all of these communities are supported by French-language institutions.
By the Official Languages Act in 1969, Canada recognized English and French as having equal status in the government of Canada.[2] While French, with no specification as to dialect or variety, has the status of one of Canada's two official languages at the federal government level, English is the native language of the majority of Canadians. The federal government provides services and operates in both languages. French is the sole official language[3] in Quebec at the provincial level and is co-official with English in New Brunswick. The provincial governments of Ontario, New Brunswick, and Manitoba are required to provide services in French where justified by the number of francophones (those whose mother tongue is French). However, the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms requires all provinces to provide primary and secondary education to their official-language minorities at public expense."


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## Eclectic12

humble_pie said:


> ... A majority of quebecers supporting outright separation still believe the army will bail out the future state during national disasters, the currency will remain the same & even their passports will continue to be furnished by ottawa.


This is the problem ... for those outside of Quebec, separation means separate everything. In order to pump up the number of "yes" votes, separation is presented as the best of being in Canada and the best of being separate. So it's not the same thing that is being discussed. When it is, the polls show a completely different story.

It's like when Meech Lake was being discussed ... before it was scuttled, Bouchard was on English tv, clearing stating in English that "the vote is on this deal ... it's not a vote for separation". After it was scuttled, he was on French tv saying in French that "this was a clear vote for separation".


Cheers


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## carverman

Relax folks..it's not going to happen. If by some remote chance the PQ got their majority and decided to hold a referendum..it will fail again, just like with the last one. 
As an autonomous "state", what currency and passports etc are they going to use? Bitcoins?:rolleyes2:

What about their economy going into shambles..these days, there isn't a lot of manufacturing going on there. The major banks made an exodus years ago
before the first and second referendum, that failed also. So Montreal is not the financial nerve centre of Canada's economy any more..it was replaced by Toronto. 

As far as Marois and her sepra-tists, trying to turn Quebec into an isolated state similar to North Korea... they will go on dreaming the impossible dream. 

Quebec is no longer in any economic shape to join with the US, (where they would definitely lose their identity as a distinct society), and who else are they going to align with?
France..who have their own economic troubles these days.


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## thompsg4416

@Brad OK so wiki has conflicting info. We'll use your number for arguments sake.... I still don't think we'd have bilingualism at the federal level for 1/24 of the population. Yeah think?


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## andrewf

I don't understand what bilingualism is such a sticking point for some people, usually Westerners. It seems like the same people who still resent the conversion to metric.


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## MoreMiles

If a majority French speaking population can force Canada to use it as an official language, shouldn't be Mandarin too? After all, white people moved from Europe to occupy native lands... so why double standard?

And it is the Chinese that immigrates a lot here these days. 
If multilingualism is to be supported, it should follow the evolution of immigration.


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## carverman

MoreMiles said:


> If a majority French speaking population can force Canada to use it as an official language, shouldn't be Mandarin too? After all, white people moved from Europe to occupy native lands... so why double standard?
> 
> And it is the Chinese that immigrates a lot here these days.
> If multilingualism is to be supported, it should follow the evolution of immigration.


What about Ukrainian too? We developed and farmed the western provinces.


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## dubmac

carverman said:


> As an autonomous "state", what currency and passports etc are they going to use? Bitcoins?:rolleyes2:
> 
> What about their economy going into shambles..these days, there isn't a lot of manufacturing going on there. The major banks made an exodus years ago
> before the first and second referendum, that failed also. So Montreal is not the financial nerve centre of Canada's economy any more..it was replaced by Toronto.
> 
> As far as Marois and her sepra-tists, trying to turn Quebec into an isolated state similar to North Korea... they will go on dreaming the impossible dream.
> 
> Quebec is no longer in any economic shape to join with the US, (where they would definitely lose their identity as a distinct society), and who else are they going to align with?
> France..who have their own economic troubles these days.


Most of English Canada views matters this way - but the concern that I have is that the PQ "sell" their supporters on problem-free sovereignty (for them), they vote 52% for it on a vague question (they need only an additional 12% support given that 61% oppose it presently), and expect to waltz off into the sunset with Fleur dis Lise's waving in the breeze! They have gotten this far (in the soveriegnty debate) by gradually eroding away federalist control of their affairs - consider their pension plan, immigration policies, education etc. Then...when they see an opportunity to hold a vote they can turn to their voters and say.."See...we are already separate in so many ways, we might as well simply separate politically" 

I suspect that most PQ supporters do, indeed, fully expect to continue to "hold" Canadian passports, use Canadian currency, maintain their boundaries and take more of the $ that Ottawa provides them because they feel that they deserve it. When English Canada then explains that the PQ "conditions" are unaccptable, then the PQ return to their voters and say "See..the colère anglophones don't want us in the federation anyway". They play politics very differently - I hope that English Canada doesn't show up to a gunfight with a pea-shooter when it comes to fighting for any form of unity!

Mind you, I am not overly concerned. WIth 26000 jobs lost in Quebec last month (if my information is right), then the PQ will be staring at voters who want food on the table before they dream the dream that the PQ are pushing.


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## andrewf

This was the point of the Clarity Act: they need a clear majority on a clear question to avoid any doubt about the will of Quebecers.

The reason why Mandarin isn't an official language:
-the proportion of Mandarin language speaks is far smaller than french speakers
-Canada at its inception was a combination of a distinct English and French populations. As a result, french has a special historical significance in Canada.


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## humble_pie

Eclectic12 said:


> This is the problem ... for those outside of Quebec, separation means separate everything. In order to pump up the number of "yes" votes, separation is presented as the best of being in Canada and the best of being separate. So it's not the same thing that is being discussed. When it is, the polls show a completely different story.
> 
> It's like when Meech Lake was being discussed ... before it was scuttled, Bouchard was on English tv, clearing stating in English that "the vote is on this deal ... it's not a vote for separation". After it was scuttled, he was on French tv saying in French that "this was a clear vote for separation"




it's true that the pols talk one way in front of english audiences & tv cameras, another way in front of french media.

but we have our historical personnages a bit mixed up. The late rené lévesque was premier of quebec during the meech lake accord negotiations.

mon cher rené was never ambiguous. Quebec loudly rejected the meech.

jacques parizeau was later to lead quebec during its failed 1995 referendum. The language on the ballot was wooly, fuzzy, opaque. It asked quebecers whether they should agree to "become sovereign" while stating that quebec would first make a "formal offer to canada for a new economic and political partnership."

a lot of quebecers on both sides of the fence had a whole lot of trouble with that one.

at the time of the 1995 referendum, lucien bouchard was leader of the bloc quebecois in the federal parliament. Pretty much every quebec nationalist politician was highly skilled at talking 2 ways in front of the media.


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## Nemo2

What is required, from the ROC, in the event of yet another separatist kick at the can, is brutal and well publicized myth destroying clarity as to what the outcome of such a split could mean for/to Quebec.


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## houska

I think a lot of people on this thread seem happy to extrapolate in straight lines rather than cycles. We've had an energy/commodity boom in the past couple of years, which has led to Alberta/Sask being the economic driving force. This boom has been driven by Asian growth which has also driven up BC's economy through trade and investments. And it has elevated the Canadian dollar, contributing to the underperformance of manufacturing and therefore central Canada. If/when this turns, the commodity price-driven boom in the West will quieten down, the dollar will go down and services and manufacturing will rev up again (though doubtless differently before). And then it may turn the other way again. In all of that, the presence in Québec of a capable workforce willing to take an economic hit to stay there and live within their culture, plus interesting non-oil natural resources, is another bit of economic flexibility for Canada. All of this means a very resilient environment for people who are mobile and flexible (language, culture, sector) to make their living -- as long as there is political stability.


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## andrewf

I think that has its place, as long as it doesn't stray into threats (which could backfire). I think it's appropriate to burst any bubbles about what ROC would be inclined to cooperate on. I'm really not sure why anyone would think they would retain a Canadian passport, for instance. Quebec could continue to use the Canadian dollar (we can't stop them), but they would not have a say in the management of the BoC, nor would the BoC or federal government provide support to Quebec banks.


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## carverman

andrewf said:


> I think that has its place, as long as it doesn't stray into threats (which could backfire). I think it's appropriate to burst any bubbles about what ROC would be inclined to cooperate on. I'm really not sure why anyone would think they would retain a Canadian passport, for instance. Quebec could continue to use the Canadian dollar (we can't stop them), but they would not have a say in the management of the BoC, nor would the BoC or federal government provide support to Quebec banks.


EXactly, Andrew. You can't have your cake and eat it too..as the saying goes. Besides the economic issues (QPP pension etc), who pays for the armed forces bases in Quebec....
( CFB Val Cartier, etc)? 

It's never as simple as "we will separate from confederation, and be responsible for our own destiny politically yet enjoy all the benefits that the rest of Canada has, 
and not pay any federal taxes to Canada." That would lead to political suicide.


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## Nemo2

andrewf said:


> I think that has its place, as long as it doesn't stray into threats (which could backfire). I think it's appropriate to burst any bubbles about what ROC would be inclined to cooperate on. I'm really not sure why anyone would think they would retain a Canadian passport, for instance. Quebec could continue to use the Canadian dollar (we can't stop them), but they would not have a say in the management of the BoC, nor would the BoC or federal government provide support to Quebec banks.


Agreed.....it wouldn't be based on threats but rather on bubble-bursting.........Quebecers would not retain their positions within the Federal Government, (in fact they would likely require work visas in order to seek employment _anywhere_ in the ROC); equalization payments would cease immediately, that kind of thing.

Presenting a "Worst Case Scenario" should be avoided, because it would be stressed that, above and beyond all the negatives thus outlined, things could always get worse.


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## andrewf

Stephen Gordon has an article in Macleans that succintly describes why Quebec probably won't keep the Canadian dollar in the event of secession from Canada:

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/econ...c-use-the-canadian-dollar-would-it-want-to-2/


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## Eclectic12

humble_pie said:


> it's true that the pols talk one way in front of english audiences & tv cameras, another way in front of french media.
> 
> but we have our historical personnages a bit mixed up. The late rené lévesque was premier of quebec during the meech lake accord negotiations.


No historical mix up on my part as it was Lucien Bouchard that I listened to contradictory statements about the Meech Lake vote.
( ... and yes I did know that Rene Levesque was Quebec premier at the time ... )




humble_pie said:


> ... mon cher rené was never ambiguous. Quebec loudly rejected the meech.


 ... if Renee was consistent (which is what I recall) plus my OP references Bouchard, it should clear I'm not referring to the Quebec premier, mais oui?




humble_pie said:


> ... at the time of the 1995 referendum, lucien bouchard was leader of the bloc quebecois in the federal parliament. Pretty much every quebec nationalist politician was highly skilled at talking 2 ways in front of the media.


The interviews I saw are likely around July 1990, while Bouchard was an independent - having left the Conservatives as he disagreed with the changes to the Meech Lake Accord that the various provinicial gov'ts were reviewing/voting on.


Cheers


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## Eclectic12

andrewf said:


> ... Quebec could continue to use the Canadian dollar (we can't stop them), but they would not have a say in the management of the BoC, nor would the BoC or federal government provide support to Quebec banks.


*snicker* ... from this I can tell you haven't been trading posts with some of the more delusional separatists. 

I can recall quite clearly my shock when a separatist matter of factly stated that an separate Quebec would get rid of the Queen on their money by choosing the US dollar instead, where Quebec would have three or more seats on the Federal Reserve.

Or the one who responded "you don't buy anything from Quebec" when I indicated that if Quebec separated, I'd stop paying the extra money for a Quebec product versus the cheaper one from Brazil. Without any effort, I could come up with thirty Quebec products in my local Canadian Tire store.


... of course there were some delusional posts on the other side along the lines of "ten minutes after a separation vote, a fifty foot wall with customs stations will be in place around Quebec."




andrewf said:


> ... I think that has its place, as long as it doesn't stray into threats (which could backfire). I think it's appropriate to burst any bubbles about what ROC would be inclined to cooperate on.


The question is who can bridge the divides in a clear enough way to communicate this?

Bear in mind that CEO of Bank of Montreal sending a letter to employees saying "vote the way you want, keep in mind that Canadian bank head office have to be in Canada". This was widely denounced in Quebec as vote tampering/pressuring.


Cheers


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## fraser

I certainly hope, and I expect that, Quebec will remain in Canada.

It is unfortunate that the pubic discussion during the election will only serve to increase net migration from the province and discourage investment. Quebecers will pay the price of a further weakened economy and in all probability higher taxes of one sort or another. 

Politicians will be rewarded with another four years at the trough.


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## andrewf

I know there are plenty of delusional people on both sides. What matters is whether the broad middle understands what is at stake. The extremes won't be swayed either way.


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## MoreMiles

BMO was about to rename themselves First Bank (which is true in chronology) of Canada... so the rest of Canadian customers will not be scared away. 

USA should come out and say they will never recognize the result of a Quebec independence referendum. If they can do it for Ukraine, they can do it for Canada right? This will help to eliminate those naive Québécois claim how they can have the same treatment with USA.


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## andrewf

If Canada recognized a referendum result (we have laws spelling out how Quebec could go about seceding), why would the US not? I think it's unlikely the US would make any such statement. I have no idea why some might think Quebec would get any representation at the Fed Reserve. That's just batty.


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## Causalien

Whatever way the voting goes. There will be a mass exodus. I remember losing a lot of friends after the referendum. What the referendum did, was making all the upwardly mobile people to start looking.

The first thing they'll notice is that the tax is ~10% less outside of Quebec. Then they'll notice the negative dividend tax rate in some of the provinces.
Then they will visit the other cities and saw that the infrastructures aren't crumbling. Inception of an idea snow balls. I wouldn't have looked outward, if not for the previous referendum.


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## fraser

Just did our pro forma income tax prior to taking it to the accountant. Then checked it on the EY site. If we lived in Quebec I would pay and extra 18K in income tax. My wife would pay an extra 4K. Nova Scotia would have just about the same tax burden for us. That is a lot of extra after tax income to spend.


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## RBull

^I know.


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## Eclectic12

andrewf said:


> ... I think it's unlikely the US would make any such statement. I have no idea why some might think Quebec would get any representation at the Fed Reserve. That's just batty.


 ... the two responses I received at the time were that:

1) "the US is all about business".

and 

2) "the US will be grateful such a good economic partner is using the USD". Funny that Panama, El Salvador, the Marshall Islands and British Virgin Islands don't have seats on the Fed.


Cheers


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## andrewf

That's totally delusional. Quebec is pretty insignificant. If you think about how little attention Canada gets in Washington, imagine how little an independent Quebec would receive, absent Alberta/Sask O&G. Though there's a good chance the US will become decidedly less interested in our energy exports as shale oil takes off.


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## gibor365

If Quebec separates , do they gonna have their own stock market, like QSE or Québec Bourse?! What would be top holdings there?! BBD.B (that will be renamed to Aviateur and Cominar?!


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## andrewf

Bombardier is already a french name.

I imagine as a point of national pride, they would probably want their own exchange, but I imagine almost all the companies would be interlisted on TSX and/or in New York.


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## My Own Advisor

I could see that andrewf.


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## dubmac

Que the carnival music and read on....
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...without-borders-or-tolls-pauline-marois-says/
maybe ROC should put in the borders and tolls
headlines like these will go on and on and on...for months......years.....ugh.


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## andrewf

Hilarious. She can't promise a customs union with Canada. We don't have one with the US, why would we with Quebec? The only advantage would be the freedom of movement to/from the Atlantic provinces.


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## emperor

Please leave Quebec. please please please please please. I've listened to your whining my whole life.


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## Jon_Snow

emperor said:


> Please leave Quebec. please please please please please. I've listened to your whining my whole life.


Amen. It would be upsetting to see our country reduced in such a way, but I'm tired of the ongoing drama too.

If they do separate, I hope it is in such a manner that they are no more Canadian than the U.S. is... if you are out, you are COMPLETELY OUT.


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## fraser

There is another concern. Will I still be able to get good smoked meat if Quebec does separate? That Winnipeg product just does not cut it.


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## emperor

If I was the PM as soon as they get a majority and mention separation I'd halt all equalization payments and everything else spent federally until after the vote.


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## braintootired

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Wx1RkauH0M&feature=youtu.be


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Just a note that the bar song on the youtube link is chock full of the f-word. In case you're not inclined to such humour, or the grandkids are colouring in the same room.


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## humble_pie

it's interesting to see how whipped-up-to-foaming-frenzy is the level of anti-quebec hatred in the ROC these days.

la pauvre belle province. Maybe the ROC could invade & occupy à la russia campaign in crimea?

we've got a gorgeous natural park on a hilltop - the locals call it mount royal, as if it were a mountain, but really it's only a little pipsqueak of a hill, although it is mostly covered with primeval forest. It's smack dab in the middle of montreal.

spring & summer are coming, it'd be a great place for a ROC army to bivouac while they try to smash up all the french kneecaps.

food is divine, of course, & the women are ooh là là
non-stop festivals in all the streets
jazz, film, comedy, dance
for ROC yobs, it would be a summer of pure bliss


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## dubmac

It's the twisted logic and tactics used by the PQ politicians that makes me see red. 
I must say that the people (politics aside) have always been very welcoming and pleasant. And you are right - Quebecers are a fun loving, fete-minded set - and I agree - the women do dress well (if it weren't for Lululemon, I'm not sure whether there would be any fashion here in the west! - but I'll speak for myself)

Canada is such a lovely place to be - wonderful place to raise a family etc.
I don't understand why anyone/people/govt would want to tear it all down - I jus don't get it.
When I read headlines quoting a PQ premier suggesting that I would be a "tourist" in what was once part of my country - the word traitor comes to mind.
Infuriating.


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Not sure it's "anti-quebec hatred", or more a case of "oh gowd, not again". You have to give them full marks for making the rest of Canada bend over again and again over the years to accommodate them with language, federal job opps, and funding - while they continue to mold la belle province as they see fit. This is just another chapter in that long boring (but expensive) book.

Quite interesting to have Peladeau in the picture. One can't help but think he is there for the worst of political reasons - not for any altruistic service to "his country (Quebec)". Should we be surprised to see Videotron eventually given a 'boost up' by the feds to help them compete with BCE and T across Canada?


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## humble_pie

black mac it's strange that you of all people are seeing red & feeling infuriated. I can't help but wonder what quebec has ever done to you, personally?

la Marois hasn't even won the election yet, the liberals are neck & neck in the polls, liberal candidate Philippe Couillard started his spirited campaign today, in her own party it's not even la Marois herself who generates the hard line, so why is everybody here popping?

it looks like some kind of rorschach test. Folks in the ROC who are trying to deal with their own not-so-hidden aggression are piling into quebec like an ink blot.

black mac, thank goodness you are not going on about the transfer payments. These have been in place since confederation. They were designed to even out costs of similar goverment services to such a huge, thinly-populated & geographically diverse nation. The idea was to standardize transportation, communication & health services for all canadians when a local tax base could not meet national standards. Only education was deliberately left out of our forefathers' grand design.

time was when the western provinces did themselves receive transfer payments, from the very same eastern central industrial provinces they are now trying to revile.

quebec receives less transfer payment per capita than any other province on the recipient list. I believe ontario has recently joined as recipient? and newfoundland has recently stopped being a recipient?

as houska wisely points out upthread, right now the oil-rich western provinces are ascendent. But cycles change, as he says. Although the transfer payments should continue, is my belief. 

where would canada have been at the Sochi olympics without the top-performing team from quebec? they never even asked for one iota of recognition for the fleur-de-lys. Instead they gave their utmost for federal canada.


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## emperor

I'm not a fan of the PQ or the fact the people from Quebec try to act like they are better than Canada. My real dislike though comes from working with them in Fort Mac. They are a pain.


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## dogcom

When you receive transfer payments and get more then your fair share in government representation then you should not be constantly complaining. Then we had Mulroney in the late 80's and early 90's trying to give Quebec far more then they deserve and put it into law so they can screw the rest of Canada forever. This is why many out west are sick of Quebec and it is not just because they get more in this cycle then in another cycle in history.


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## Jon_Snow

Let's leave the Quebec based olympic athletes out of this please. :rolleyes2:

From my far flung outpost out here on the verdant shores of the Pacific, I can tell you that any negative feelings I have with Quebec are largely based upon their repeated attempts to LEAVE MY COUNTRY. Humble, this upsets the "ROC", do you not understand this?


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## Eclectic12

humble_pie said:


> ... it looks like some kind of rorschach test. Folks in the ROC who are trying to deal with their own not-so-hidden aggression are piling into quebec like an ink blot ... black mac it's strange that you of all people are seeing red & feeling infuriated. I can't help but wonder what quebec has ever done to you, personally?


 ... and the cycle of impossible dreams (ex. keep Canadian passports while being separate), talking at cross purposes as well as interpreting frustration as aggression repeats itself.




humble_pie said:


> ... where would canada have been at the Sochi olympics without the top-performing team from quebec? they never even asked for one iota of recognition for the fleur-de-lys. Instead they gave their utmost for federal canada.


With a lower medal count but I not sure that is going to change anyone's thinking.

Apparently, despite their backing federal canada, they can be pawns as much as anyone else as was shown by the altered picture changing the mittens, which the Quebec higher education minister re-tweeted.


Cheers


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## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> black mac it's strange that you of all people are seeing red & feeling infuriated. I can't help but wonder what quebec has ever done to you, personally?
> 
> la Marois hasn't even won the election yet, the liberals are neck & neck in the polls, liberal candidate Philippe Couillard started his spirited campaign today, in her own party it's not even la Marois herself who generates the hard line, so why is everybody here popping?
> 
> it looks like some kind of rorschach test. Folks in the ROC who are trying to deal with their own not-so-hidden aggression are piling into quebec like an ink blot.
> 
> .


HP.
My rant is focused exclusively on the PQ leaders and the "pure lain" 39% charter-waving group behind them.
I have been the Qc many times - once we cycled from outside Montreal along the north shore through Malbaie, Tadousac, Baie St.-Paul etc - we saw the land and people for who they are. was wonderful. The athletes they produce are world class - one only needs to see a list of the last names of NHL goal-tenders as evidence - our (ex) Luongo is a child of Montreal; Bradour, Roy..etc Others include Lacavelier, St. Louis etc. The list is long. They wear Canada jerseys proudly, and no doubt they are paid well in the game. 

This is less about "hating" a people (I don't, quite the opposite), vs resenting a political party (I do, the PQ).

No doubt the political drama will play out on the merits and demerits of separation - and what exactly separation "is" and "means" - but the fact we are having to return to the debate on separation and sovereignty is what I call infuriating. Will my kids future continue to have the referendum 4, 5, 6 etc?

Your point on the changing flows of money, economic opportunity and transfer payments from west to east is not lost on me. True - Alberta has not always been the buxom beauty with deep pockets that she is presently - and you will likely hear alot of squeaking from Albertans on the topic of separation - they tend to just as riled up, and pile onto the separation wagon when the topic of separation is tabled in Quebec. The debate itself incites and starts other nasty, Canada-or-not debates. I love out country - I resent anyone, or thing, that would damage it.

On a lighter note, I recall a joke from the last separation debate...

A high-end woman's retail shop owner in Montreal in 1995 was asked their opinion on what it would be like to live in a Quebec without Canada, and the shop-owner paused and then said "It would terrible....who would we sell last year's unsold fashions to if Toronto was not in the country"?

No doubt Toronto has come a long way, but still, kinda light humour on a dark subject, no?


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## MoreMiles

Those who have never lived in Quebec, would never understand.

Quebec is the only province with "Language Police" wandering around the streets to penalize businesses with small French signs.

Quebec is the only province that forces ethnic stores to have larger French words on all signs than their own language by 1/3 bigger, which makes Chinatown looks like a Frenchtown.

Quebec is the only province that insists on CEGEP, messing up students ability to easily transfer their study out of province. Grade 11 then CEGEP what? American schools don't care.

Quebec is the only province that owns its Tax Agency, insisting its citizens to file taxes twice to submit them to different places.

Quebec is the only province that insists on a language exam before giving out professional licenses to lawyers and doctors, forcing those non-francophone to leave.

Quebec is the only province that bans head scarfs, forcing the Muslim to leave.

The list goes on and on... and they are still not happy.

La belle province, n'est pas? Mon oeil! C'est assez... just leave please.


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## Eclectic12

MoreMiles said:


> ... Quebec is the only province that insists on a language exam before giving out professional licenses to lawyers and doctors, forcing those non-francophone to leave ...


And that's any different from my dad who talked about when his buddy who couldn't become an engineer as he couldn't pass the french exam to get his university degree in Ontario?


Cheers

*PS*

If you look back at Ontario's history, it is not much to brag about considering regulation 17 made Ontario schools English only from 1912 to 1927.


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## Rusty O'Toole

To me the whole thing is a non issue. What has Canada got to lose? What has Quebec ever done for Canada?

If Quebec left Confederation it would be like a mill stone lifted off our necks. And as for what would happen to Quebec without Canada's support, who cares?


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## andrewf

humble_pie said:


> quebec receives less transfer payment per capita than any other province on the recipient list. I believe ontario has recently joined as recipient? and newfoundland has recently stopped being a recipient?


This can't possibly be true. Quebec receives more and has a smaller population than Ontario.


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## fraser

What is wrong with CEGEP??? 

I certainly had no problem in finishing Grade 11, enrolling in one year of CEGEP, and then being accepted at U of T and UBC. That was some time ago however I have always thought it was a very good system-though I attended one of the few CEGEPS at the time that charged tuition.

Quebec is a fabulous province. It simply needs to get rid of some of the bottom feeder politicians and focus on it's serious fiscal and economic issues. Failure to do so will not be very pretty. Would I choose to live there today. No. The costs in terms of taxation (income and otherwise) is too high and the opportunity for my children is considerably less than in other areas of Canada. I feel the same way about several provinces such as Nova Scotia. But Quebecers can change this over time if they have the will and the foresight to elect a more responsible and capable Government.


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## fraser

As I understand it, in 2013/4 transfer payments to Quebec are set at $7.83 billion. Transfer payments to Ontario are set at $ 3.17 billion.


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## sags

Transfer payments are only how much the Federal Government gives back to the Provinces to cover the cost of federal programs. 

Ottawa collects the revenue and then distributes it to the Provinces.

Ontario for example, sends 11 Billion dollars a year MORE to Ottawa, than they get back in transfer payments.

Quebec is the largest Provincial land mass in Canada, has the 2nd highest population and is 2nd in economic output.

Receiving transfer payments doesn't mean a Province is destitute or in economic trouble.

The terms "have" and "have not" Provinces is misleading.


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## humble_pie

sags said:


> Transfer payments are only how much the Federal Government gives back to the Provinces to cover the cost of federal programs.
> 
> Ottawa collects the revenue and then distributes it to the Provinces.
> 
> Ontario for example, sends 11 Billion dollars a year MORE to Ottawa, than they get back in transfer payments.
> 
> Quebec is the largest Provincial land mass in Canada, has the 2nd highest population and is 2nd in economic output.
> 
> Receiving transfer payments doesn't mean a Province is destitute or in economic trouble.
> 
> The terms "have" and "have not" Provinces is misleading.




yes, persons saying that they as taxpayers in the ROC are personally subsidizing quebec - notice how it's only quebec they always complain about! - don't understand how transfer payments work.

quebec could secede but the transfer payment system among & between the provinces & ottawa would go on exactly as before.

andrewf is right about ontario, though. It's joined the recipient list so recently that i was looking at earlier figs, didn't include it. But per capita it would have to be less than quebec.


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## sags

It's like a group of people sitting around having lunch in a restaurant.

One person (the Federal Government) keeps ordering all kinds of things from the menu (new laws and mandates), collects all the money from everyone (the people) but when it comes time to pay........they decide who pays what share of the bill (the Provincial Governments).


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## Eclectic12

humble_pie said:


> yes, persons saying that they as taxpayers in the ROC are personally subsidizing quebec - notice how it's only quebec they always complain about! - don't understand how transfer payments work ...


I guess we are traveling in different circles ... the year I went to school in Calgary, as soon as westerners found out I was from the east, the number #2 complaint was Alberta sending money to benefit the Altantic provinces ... so from my perspective, the complaints cover more than Quebec.

The number #1 complaint amused me as it was why I personally decided to implement the NEP!


Cheers

*PS*

I did find it interesting that the complaints started whether one said one was from Ontario, Quebec or Nova Scotia as all were covered under the banner of "blood sucking Easterner". :rolleyes2:


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## sags

Every year when I fill out my income tax, the taxes I pay to Ontario are dwarfed by the taxes I pay to Ottawa.

Add in a multitude of other taxes..........excise taxes, HST, gasoline taxes,etc.etc............and the gap grows larger.

The "view" from Alberta may be a little shortsighted in my estimation.

Howard Green had a show the other day on BNN. They were discussing the difference between Norway and Alberta and the treatment of oil royalty revenues.

Norway keeps and invests all of it's oil revenue. They have built up a huge sovereign wealth fund. They pay high taxes to live in Norway.

Alberta saves almost nothing of it's oil revenues. The revenue offsets the much lower taxes they pay..........than Norwegians.

Different ideology and philosophy.

Which is better...........only time will tell.


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