# 2020 Predictions Contest



## kcowan

*2020 Predictions Contest*
The predictions contest is on again! For the fearless among us who are brave enough to guess where we are headed!

Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on December 31, 2020 in the following format:

S&P500:
TSX:
GOLD:
OIL:
CAD:

with the dollar amounts in USD. The index is just that. No dollar value. The deadline is January 13 at 9:30 EST and the first results will be published after market close in January.

Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before the deadline. Let's hope the markets continue to cooperate next year.


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## gardner

My prediction:

S&P500: 4324
TSX: 19324
GOLD: 1432.43
OIL: 64.32
CAD: 0.74324


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## nortel'd

I predict the market exuberance has nothing to do with a global economy. :very_drunk: Everything will bumble along and end 2020 flat … 

S&P500: 3240
TSX: 17200
GOLD: 1510
OIL: 62.00
CAD: 0.7641


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## marina628

S&p500: 3680
tsx: 17900
gold: 1475
oil: 63.00
cad: 0.7583


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## My Own Advisor

Thanks for running this again....

My prediction:

S&P 500: 3780
TSX: 18560
GOLD: 1590
OIL: 68.00
CAD: 0.7850


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## Butter

S&p 500: 3370
tsx: 18349
gold: 1515
oil: 68.51
cad: 0.7888


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## dubmac

S&P500: 3275
TSX: 17000
GOLD: 1405
OIL: 58.50
CAD: 0.76

thanks for doing this


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## OptsyEagle

S&P500: 2690
TSX: 15,088
Gold: 1625
Oil: 42.50
CAD:0.6820


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## Jimmy

Thanks for organizing the contest again. Looking forward to the exciting finish to 2019 lol. Looks like banks are going to step in and keep the party going in 2020. Hard to predict the exuberance though lol. 

S&P500: 3,430 
TSX: 18,039 
Gold:	$1,525 
Oil: $56.50 
CAD:	$0.76

Happy New year to all too !


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## stantistic

Predictions are hard - especially the future

S&P 500: 3,300
TSX: 16,000
Gold: 1,600
Oil: 60.00
CAD 71.00

Ditto thanks kcowan.


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## ddivadius

S&p500: 2675
tsx: 15775
gold: 1660
oil: 85
cad: 0.81


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## dubmac

i'd like up update my tsx prediction to 17650


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## Thal81

S&P500: 3500
TSX: 18500
Gold: 1400
Oil: 75
CAD:0.75


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## kcowan

Reminder
Your guesses are due before market open on Monday!
I will be working over the weekend to get everything ready.


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## scorpion_ca

S&P500: 2900
TSX: 16000
Gold: 1450
Oil: 62
CAD:0.76


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## Beaver101

kcowan said:


> Reminder
> Your guesses are due before market open on Monday!
> I will be working over the weekend to get everything ready.


 ... when are you posting yours Keith?


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## kcowan

We are staying with friends so not getting much contemplation time at present. 

However, I stole some time after dinner!

S&P500: 3415
TSX: 18200
GOLD: 1485
OIL: 69
CAD: 0.765


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## spiritwalker2222

S&p500: 3600
tsx: 19000
gold: 1650
oil: 63
cad: 0.75


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## scorpion_ca

dubmac said:


> i'd like up update my tsx prediction to 17650


Then edit your original post.


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## Rising Tide

S&P500: 3430
TSX: 18100
Gold: 1340
Oil: 67
CAD: .78


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## jargey3000

dubmac said:


> i'd like up update my tsx prediction to 17650


just go back & edit your original post?


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## kcowan

scorpion_ca said:


> Then edit your original post.


I start at the bottom and work up so then I discover his partial correction. It is not foolproof though, ergo my advice.


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## RBull

S&p500: 3425
tsx: 18150
gold: 1395
oil: 68.5
cad: 75.75


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## sparky61

S&P500: 2800
TSX: 15000
GOLD: 1800.00
OIL: 50.00
CAD: 70.00

Thanks kcowan for running this!


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## Beaver101

S&P500: 3101
TSX: 17101
GOLD:1501
OIL: 61.01
CAD:1.01

Thanks Keith. 

PS: Congrats (belated) on 2019 results! (I just checked .. at least I didn't come in last, LOL)


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## Eder

S&P500: 3415
TSX: 17550
GOLD:1460
OIL: 58.00
CAD: 71.5

Trump wins again


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## jessc

S&p500: 3000
tsx: 15500
gold: 1500
oil: 68
cad: 81


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## kcowan

Predictions are now closed for 2020. There remain 19 stalwart participants.


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## kcowan

I recommend that you review your published predictions as I did them while watching the Seahawks lose with a friend and may have mistyped some entries.

https://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2020Predictions.jpg


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## Thal81

Keith, there's a funny typo for Jessc's TSX prediction


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## peterk

Nooooo I'm too late!

I predict you all will have lots of fun.


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## kcowan

Thal81 said:


> Keith, there's a funny typo for Jessc's TSX prediction


Thanks. The correction will show up at month-end.


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## spiritwalker2222

Hi Kcowan,

My entry is missing from your list. It was entered on January 10th. The predictions are as follows.

S&P500: 3600
TSX: 19000
gold: 1650
oil: 63
cad: 0.75

Thank you


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## kcowan

Got it thanks!


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## kcowan

First month done and initial leader is Jimmy:
https://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2020Predictions.jpg


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## Jimmy

kcowan said:


> First month done and initial leader is Jimmy:
> https://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2020Predictions.jpg


Hopefully can stay near the top for the entire year this time lol.


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## kcowan

OptsyEagle lands in the lead.
Latest results


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## kcowan2000

OpsyEagle hold onto the lead with a 20% error!


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## gardner

I can't believe I am not last. Oh well, there are 10 more months.


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## andrewf

No one bet on global pandemic?


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## P_I

andrewf said:


> No one bet on global pandemic?


What track and race is he running in? The 5th at Belmont?


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## agent99

P_I said:


> What track and race is he running in? The 5th at Belmont?


Favorite to win the Triple Crown.


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## kcowan

No change in leadership.


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## kcowan

No change again.


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## kcowan

OptsyEagle once again but with under 8% error
sparky61 in second place


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## Jimmy

It will be interesting. S&P has recovered more or less and will be depend on how fast the TSX, oil and the $ recover from the black swan type scenario. May end up like the normal year levels predicted even.


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## kcowan

sparky61 overtakes OptsyEagle this month.


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## kcowan

OpstyEagle edges out sparky61


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## kcowan

OptsyEagle holds the lead.

File:CMF 2020Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki


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## kcowan

Jimmy is in the lead with sparky in 2nd


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## MrBlackhill

Who won?

Will you start another one for 2021?

Seems fun and speculative.


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## kcowan

Sorry life got in the way. The winner for 2020







is Jimmy. Congratulations.

sparky61 hangs in for second place.

and marina628 holds third.


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## Jimmy

kcowan said:


> Sorry life got in the way. The winner for 2020 is Jimmy. Congratulations.
> 
> sparky61 hangs in for second place.
> 
> and marina628 holds third.


Kc thanks for organizing this. Lots of fun. Interesting if this is where the indices would have wound up here wout the covid but sort of doubt it so will say there was a lot of luck involved here. There are always wild swings too at some stage in the year. This year the markets just kind of got back to where they started w moderate gains


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## gardner

As the most optimistic of the entrants, I am continually astonished that I am not dead LAST.


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## Beaver101

^ Then don't be so optimistic, like me, at least I'm 2nd last. 

PS: Thanks Keith for all the monthly hard work! [Hope we get get another go at this in 2021.]


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## marina628

OMG I'm in the money placed 3rd .OK not a poker game but was seriously fun


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## kcowan

Here are the Individual Category Rankings:








in case there were any side bets...


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## Eder

Thanks for the effort...have a few tacos (at Tacos On The Street in La Cruz of course) on me!!


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## kcowan2000

I would have them at Pancho's Tacos on Basilio Badillo but the line ups are too much of a Covid risk for me.


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## jargey3000

hey Beav - the GOOD news is you didn't finish LAST!😈


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## Beaver101

jargey3000 said:


> hey Beav - the GOOD news is you didn't finish LAST!😈


 ... yah, pretty disappointing as I tried ... 2nd last ain't that bad.


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## My Own Advisor

Well done Jimmy!!!


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