# Electric cars. lithium, etc



## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

*continuation of discussion on electric cars from previous
thread on A/C by "mode3sour" *

Nein! my forum friend und Deutschland. 

Canada does not have that much lithium to satisfy the demands of GM or the Chinese/Asian world when the production of electric cars gets up to speed.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...y-by-2015.html

While there are plans to open a lithium mine in Val D'or Quebec, it isn't going to produce that much once it gets up to speed (20,000 metric tons)
..and that depends on how many investors they find and the assay of the mineral content.
SA produces more than 55% of the worlds lithium. China has put a hold on exporting their supply of lithium and they are not saying how much they have. 

So like anything else (copper/aluminum) or any precious metals, the prices will rise dramatically as the demand for lithium increases.

Electric cars coming into world markets will push up the price of lithium on all levels. 

Now as far as carbon footprint..shipping ore to china with the world price of oil going up drastically over the next few years doesn't make sense.

Refinining of the ore has to be done in the countries where it is mined.
Otherwise the costs will skyrocket due to the cost of shipping from SA (or Canada) to China and then shipping the finished product back.
batteries are heavy items and these will be no different. 

*To satisfy frugality content..this discussion will be on'
the economic merits of electric vs oil powered vehicles. *


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

The coolest thing about electric cars is regenerative braking - essentially recharging the battery to slow the car down. This was developed to give F1 race cars an extra boost. Electric cars can actually outperform gas engines, so much they will destroy the drive-train and transmission if you don't limit their initial umph.

Lithium batteries don't like the cold. So, they're still not feasible in Canada imo. As far as producing batteries in Canada, we just can't compete with Chinese wages. The cost of oil is nowhere near the cost of first world salaries. The irony is that people buy the Volt to offset their carbon footprint, while the carbon footprint just to produce the car was worse than the entire lifespan of a Hummer.

My best stock to date is thanks to a Lithium exploration project near Val d'Or


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

AFAIK, they sell the Tesla roadster in Canada, which uses Li batteries. I'm not sure if the Nissan Leaf does, but they will be selling it in Canada shortly as well.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

andrewf said:


> AFAIK, they sell the Tesla roadster in Canada, which uses Li batteries. I'm not sure if the Nissan Leaf does, but they will be selling it in Canada shortly as well.


Problem is you have to use more power to heat or cool the battery which uses your power and hence reduces range. From experience snowmobiling and owning all the types of batteries I can tell you they hate to sit idle or be used in cold or heat. So do you run the A/C and heat on these batteries 24/7 in the winter/summer? The Telsa isn't exactly a winter vehicle to start with

"In general, Lithium-ion cells cannot be charged below 0 degrees Celsius, which would theoretically prevent charging in cold environments. To overcome this cold weather charging obstacle, the Roadster is designed with a heater to warm the cells (when plugged in) to an appropriate charging temperature. If there were no battery pack heater, drivers living in cold environments would have difficulty charging and experience stunted driving performance.

Likewise, the cells are designed to operate in high-temperature environments. High-performance driving is possible in even the hottest environments of the world. If the temperature rises above a set threshold, the air conditioning unit sends chilled coolant through the pack. Similar to the radiator fan of ICE-powered cars, the chilled coolant continues to circulate after the motor has been turned off to keep the temperature at an appropriate level. Cooling the pack enables a driver to quickly charge immediately after hard driving in hot climates. Without such a cooling system, recharging in hot weather would be delayed after each drive."


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## slacker (Mar 8, 2010)

So, is electric more economical than oil power? I'm guessing not (feel free to correct). But one can argue that oil power has many externalities and subsidies. Why are people so hostile towards making the true cost of oil power apparent? People seem pretty angry about carbon tax or cap/trade.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

mode3sour said:


> Lithium batteries don't like the cold. So, they're still not feasible in Canada imo.


Well that is one of the "startup" problems GM and others have to solve, and I'm sure they will. I agree that with a car sitting in a parking lot overnight at -20c, getting it to perform the same as at 20C is going to be a challenge.

But even if there is an initial drop in battery current at
those temps, don't forget that the Chevy Volt has a backup 3cylinder or 4 cylinder engine? ) to charge the battery and extend the range of the vehicle
for another 340 miles (or until the gas runs out, if you don't refill in the meantime) so it's a hybrid

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt.

The unforseen issues will be the fact that it has an electronic controller system, electronic displays and sensors ..which remains to be seen as far as reliability, since sensors on cars have been known to give off some
bizarre symptoms,
because of the environment they work in.



> As far as producing batteries in Canada, we just can't compete with Chinese wages. The cost of oil is nowhere near the cost of first world salaries. The irony is that people buy the Volt to offset their carbon footprint, while the carbon footprint just to produce the car was worse than the entire lifespan of a Hummer.


The Hummer was an experiment from an military vehicle, it is big, ugly and a gas guzzler..not something that should be on public highways..but like a lot of SUVs recently, people buy them for the status symbol attraction ...or that macho feeling. 



> My best stock to date is thanks to a Lithium exploration project near Val d'Or


I'm sure that in the next 2-5 years, as electric car production starts to increase both from GM and the Japanese, lithium prices will soar.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

There are other battery technologies that do not rely on lithium. Lithium is not all that rare. What makes the Bolivian deposits useful is that they are relatively pure and easily extracted. So, if prices for lithium rise, other sources of supply will become economic. Much like rare earth elements. They aren't all that rare, so high prices create the incentive to exploit more difficult deposits. I wouldn't bet on high prices persisting, in other words.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

andrewf said:


> There are other battery technologies that do not rely on lithium. Lithium is not all that rare. What makes the Bolivian deposits useful is that they are relatively pure and easily extracted. So, if prices for lithium rise, other sources of supply will become economic. Much like rare earth elements. They aren't all that rare, so high prices create the incentive to exploit more difficult deposits.
> I wouldn't bet on high prices persisting, in other words.


Well this is a argument right now that cannot be substantiated.
I've highlighted in bold the statements that counter your statement on high prices NOT persisting as the electric car industry ramps up, within the next 2-5 years. 

Here is that extract from a online article in computerworld..in regards to lithium ion batteries.

(The biggest advantage, of course, in this battery technology...energy to weight ratio, 
and very rapid charging cycles..something that very few rechargable battery technologies can equal

But from a maintenance point..is there any savings in
with an all electric or hybrid gas/electric vehicle?
I think not. 

_Computerworld _- Any mention of using lithium-ion in cars triggers negative reactions in some quarters. The current cost for li-ion is about $1,300 per kilowatt-hour capacity. A car such as the upcoming *Chevrolet Volt electric hybrid requires a 16 kilowatt-hour battery*, *meaning its battery would cost almost $21,000 -- more than many cars. *


*As for volume production bringing prices down, don't bet on it, *cautions John Petersen, partner with investment firm of Fefer Petersen & Cie in Château de Barberêche, Switzerland. The lithium used in li-ion batteries comes from salt flats in the Andes Mountains of South America, and *the supply cannot automatically be expanded to meet higher demand*. An aluminum ore available in the U.S., called spodumene contains lithium -- but extracting it is expensive since lithium will explode on contact with water, Petersen explains. 

Ross Dueber, president and CEO of ZPower, a battery startup in Camarillo, Calif., agrees, saying that *60% to 70% of the cost of a lithium-ion battery is from the cost of the raw materials.* 

"Bolivia is the Saudi Arabia of lithium-ion. The idea that the car industry will be able to bring costs down is optimistic, since we have already done that in the electronics industry. We already have a huge installed base and we already leverage from volume. *If we could make it cheaper, we would've done so." *

The iconic American electric car is the previously mentioned *Chevrolet Volt*, which should go on the market by the end of calendar 2010, according to General Motors spokesman Brian Corbett. It will *use manganese li-ion batteries supplied by a South Korean company*, which are *expected to last 8 to 10 years*, or *150,000 miles*. He would not give an expected cost for the batteries because he said the batteries are not to be sold separately -- they will be part of the car. (The retail price of the car has also not been announced.) 

The use of manganese means the battery can supply bursts of power suitable for a car, and does not impact the *price of the battery -- around $21,000 *-- so there is some question about how the Volt can be competitively priced.

Battery management circuitry will prevent both excessive charging and discharging, to prolong battery life, he says. 

The vehicle is expected to go 40 miles on a battery charge, and has a small gasoline engine and a generator to extend the range beyond that. Recharging will take three hours at 220 volts and eight hours at 110 volts. A "thermal management system" will prevent the battery from getting too hot or too cold, Corbett explains. 

Lead-acid battery technology also continues to improve, says Maurice "Moe" Desmarais, executive vice president of the Battery Council International in Chicago. "Vendors continue to release new products that contain more energy and have longer life spans than previous products, so the technology is improving in all respects. *The problem is that you have to do several years of testing -- if you are offering a warranty for four years, you need to test it for four years." *Also, the mounds of lead-acid car batteries that used to disfigure junkyards are now gone, and currently recycling rates hover at 99% as the lead in the batteries can be completely reused, Desmarais says. In fact, he notes that municipal garbage workers are generally forbidden to collect car batteries. Currently, car batteries typically last four years but hot weather can decrease their life expectancy, Desmarais says.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

More on li-ion battery technology vs other rechargeable battery technologies

computerworld extract:
_First, some basics: The rechargeable battery chemistries that have been used in portable devices so far include lithium-ion (li-ion), nickel-metal hydride (NiMH), nickel-cadmium (NiCad) and, if you count cars, lead-acid. Potential battery power, meanwhile, is usually rated in terms of watt-hours per kilogram. Sealed lead-acid batteries can deliver 30 to 50 watt-hours per kilogram, NiCad can deliver 45 to 80, NiMH can deliver 60 to 120, and li-ion can reach as high as 180, according to a site run by Isidor Buchmann, founder and CEO of Cadex Electronics, a maker of battery test equipment and chargers in Vancouver, BC_ <end of computerworld extract.

Since the current battery technology is manganese li-ion, and contracts have been given out to the Koreans (at least for now) to produce these seeminly very expensive batteries ($21,000 for a chevy volt?)

Two things come to mind here.

Initial cost of the car..$25,000 for the car and $21,000 for the battery, we have a $46K electric hybrid car that will be competing along with the asian made fuel efficient cars that are sold at say $30K base price.

How is the consumer going to react to:

1) high initial cost of the car vs any savings realized.
2) operating costs down the road from 60,000 to 100,000 km and maybe from 100,000 to 200,00km (if they keep the car that long) 

Operating costs include licensing/insurance, electrical and gas costs, repair costs (especially in an accident).


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

carverman said:


> Currently, car batteries typically last four years but hot weather can decrease their life expectancy, Desmarais says.


Hot weather can decrease their life expectancy and car batteries are currently charged every time to drive by the gas engine. If you let a battery sit in cold or heat it depletes rapidly

The lithium batteries are much better because of the power density and no memory iirc. The Telsa and the Leaf also have much better stats than the Volt. What's saving the Volt is government incentives..


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

*One reason Tibet will likely never be free - they have a cheap source of Lithium..*

Tho not directly related to the thread, Avner Mandelman once wrote an article on the sources of lithium..I found the following link and a quote from it. May be worth commenting on. The interesting thing here, that Tibet's sovereignty will likely never come to pass because they have what the Chinese desperately needs - a cheap source of lithium!

Mandelan writes...
"To make an inexpensive battery ($10,000, say), you need really cheap lithium deposits, billions of dollars for a huge production line of Model T-like proportions, and super know-how,” Avner Mandelman, president and chief investment officer of Giraffe Capital Corp., recently wrote. “In all these the West is deficient. Yes, lithium is everywhere, but the cheapest deposits are in Australia (small), Chile (okay), and Tibet -- best and large, and controlled by China (one reason Tibet will likely never be free)."

see http://www.examiner.com/business-te...g-countries-could-smoke-u-s-selling-tech-here


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

dubmac said:


> "To make an inexpensive battery ($10,000, say), you need really cheap lithium deposits, billions of dollars for a huge production line of Model T-like proportions, and super know-how,” the cheapest deposits are in Australia (small), Chile (okay), and Tibet -- best and large, and controlled by China (one reason Tibet will likely never be free)."


Ok, I didn't want to get into world politics on this one..yes China is eyeing the huge market that lithium batteries will help to create. 
The market is already evolving with power tools and laptops, but the huge market will be the electric car when it finally arrives in 2011/12.

$10,000 is an inexpensive battery? Imagine trying to start your electric vehicle some cold morning in Canada and it just wont go..the onboard computer tells you "Call GM assistance".. and they do a scan and find out the battery is toast. You call CAA and they tow you into the nearest GM dealer, who inform you that there is a bad cell in this $10K+ battery,..and sorry, but the warranty has expired....makes that $100 tankful of gas
seem cheap by comparison, even though its only about 100 tankfuls these days.

Once the Koreans and Chinese start producing electric cars for the mass market..goodbye GM Volt..they are just too expensive for the average driver.


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## LBCfan (Jan 13, 2011)

If you want a lithium play, try SQM. Covers the ag sector too.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

LBCfan said:


> If you want a lithium play, try SQM. Covers the ag sector too.


Not surprised. Chile has a large mineral deposit base, and lithium is just one of the huge deposits that a industrialized country like China, is wooing for partnership with. Good for the Chinese and Chileans.

The fertilizer is a large portion of their business (SQM) but with substantial deposits of lithium (besides Argentina and China, on the indicator of world reserves. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium

It may be that Bolivia has it as well, but in a different form, I think they mentioned it's in the salt flats. 

I think that anyone who invests early in SQM could get very rich.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

If the lithium market grows, any technological innovation that decreases the cost to extract it will create more value. So a big lithium market will mean much more resources dedicated to finding more cost effective extraction techniques. Lithium demand up to a few years ago was very modest.

Of course, the cost of lithium is also driving investment into other battery chemistries. There is a lot of potential for other technology to disrupt lithium ion battery technology. This is why I would not bet the farm of skyrocketing lithium prices. It might not materialize.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

andrewf said:


> Of course, the cost of lithium is also driving investment into other battery chemistries. There is a lot of potential for other technology to disrupt lithium ion battery technology. This is why I would not bet the farm of skyrocketing lithium prices. It might not materialize.


I'm sure there is research into other battery chemistries, but
these may take years to reach manufacturing maturity for
high energy requirement applications,
but if you look at how much base metals like copper have increased in the last 10 years as an indicator..because of demand, it could certainly be an indicator for a mineral that great demand right now for rechargeable batteries.

As I mentioned, up to now lithium is still in rechargeables.. but car batteries (once the electric cars go into production in tens or hundreds of thousand units) are going to require huge amounts of
it. Using car prices as an example, in the 70s, you could get a
nice car for $6K to 9K. Now its at least 4 times that amount.
(and that's what around 40 years?) 


Rising copper prices in the last 10 years ($US per metric ton)
http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/copper.html

Lithium (source is SQM)
http://www.lithiumsite.com/Lithium_Market.html

and here..
" *Since 2004 lithium carbonate price started to rise, because of the strong demand principally boosted by the battery application.* This forced the actual 3 principal producers ( SQM, Chemetall and FMC) to expand their operations. 

On the other hand Talisons also increased their output and is selling a big share of its production to plants in China where spodumene is transformed in lithium carbonate."

So where is all this lithium carbonate (I presume pre-refined lithium for shipment) going?....China.


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