# born loser!



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

so,,,I'd been waiting, watching, procrastinating.....forever.....as usual with me.
Had my eye on 2 stocks to buy with some freed up US cash. FINALLY decided to take the plunge & put in orders,,,,YESTERDAY......just BEFORE the deluge!
saw what was happening a bit later & went to CANCEL.....TOO LATE! hoo-boy.... didnt buy at daily highs , but not near the bottom either! ALWAYS seem to happen to ME! 
more bad news today!
AAPL & BABA btw...... oh well, they aren't too involved in steel or alum. so hopefully they'll bounce back.
Then, i'm getting out of this racket & rolling everything into HISA & GICs!!!! ta hell with it!!!
aaaarrrrgggghh!!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ And you want to go all-in?! Why aren't on your February break trip to Mexico or Jamaica? 

It's March now and you'll be scrambling with everyone else in the madness to get out of wherever you are now in ... :nightmare:


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## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

Did something at Apple or Alibaba cause you to not want to own these companies or are you angry the slot machine took your money without paying out?

I take no delight in anyone losing money, for any reason. That includes speculators.

Apple may be on the brink of an AI breakthrough. If this is the case, it's a fantastic company to own.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Jargey, I thought you were a long term seasoned investor? Surly you have experienced at least one of the recent debacles, e.g. 2008/2009. I think an unfortunate outcome of the past 8 years has been, for the most part, stock market stability and low VIX.

Go to https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/^VIX/ and plug in historical data, then monthly frequency and maximum duration, and pick chart and you will see how the VIX chart has been on a pretty much downward trend since the financial crisis, and more importantly, has been lower in recent years relative to the 28 year period. 

Switch to a 5 year chart and 1 week frequency, and see what that shows you (since we humans typically don't retain long term thoughts well). Until this past month, VIX has been as low as about 10 and the 28 year average has been about 20. It has only gotten back to about "normal behaviour" in the past month. We may well be in a period of VIX roller coasting between 10 and 30, perhaps for a full year or more.

I would suggest that anyone bothered by this past month's volatility should spend some time playing with the VIX chart. It should help to calm jitters that this is just part of normal stock market behaviour.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

1) beav - had to delay vacay due to some "unforeseen circumstances"....shooting for May now ...
2) yes alta ...o8/09 AND a couple before that too!!
3) naw.... i'm just p.o.'ed at myself.... for being such a GD procrastinator! I remember looking at appple when it was under $100 & thinking of buying then....but didn't. same type scenario with baba about 2 years ago.
Trouble is.... I'm running out of years to waste!!!!
just mad that i made a move YESTERDAY! oh well maybe in long run i'll look at it as an astute buying opportunity..haha
and 4) I haven't "lost" a dime yet.... i haven't sold! hope tomB is right!


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I think you are looking for home runs on some of your picks and you become frustrated when you 'miss' something. That is a high stakes gamble, with as many picks flaming out as what take off like a bird. Why not just stick with solid businesses and over a 10 year period, you get a bumpy but methodical 6-10%/year CAGR? The classic tortoise vs hare analogy. Know your personality and behaviour traits and stick with a strategy that complements that.

Added: I am not wired for speculative investing. Buy and hold where I think I can add value and buy ETFs for the rest. 2-4 trades per year max.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

i know, i know alta....... but home runs are a lot more fun, than singles...


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

I think it's a normal reaction of a "conservative" investor to be a little bit PO'd when reckless abandon investing seems to be leading many to riches.

Who would have thought that instead of doing whatever I've been doing for the last 10 years I should have just moved to Toronto, lied to the bank to get the biggest GD mortgage I could manage, and pumped every spare dime I had into Amazon and Facebook stock? Does that sounds like a good friggen plan??? Yet look what happened...

Try not to think about those things though... Can be crippling to one's wellbeing... But I take this to be an aired grievances thread where we can let it all out and then move on with life.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

peterk said:


> Who would have thought that instead of doing whatever I've been doing for the last 10 years I should have just moved to Toronto, lied to the bank to get the biggest GD mortgage I could manage, and pumped every spare dime I had into Amazon and Facebook stock? Does that sounds like a good friggen plan??? Yet look what happened...


It's all a crapshoot. Many random outcomes.

Additionally, you only hear about stories where things happened to work out well for the person. There are countless investors who got destroyed in the countless investment disasters. Just off the top of my head, things like Crocus in Manitoba, Bre-X, Nortel, the whole NASDAQ tech bubble, Enron, WorldCom, Canadian income trusts and energy trusts, US banks, US real estate, the Cdn mining sector...

Do you see those people showing up day after day on the forum here and saying "I lost everything in Nortel"? Of course not. Message forums have tremendous selection bias and make it seem like everyone does fine in the stock market. The picture of investing you read on CMF and the great stories and great returns are not reflective of the average/median experience.

How about that guy "Tosser" who used to post here about his VIX / volatility gambling with exotic ETFs? You think he survived February? I doubt it. He doesn't post here any more.

It's part of the keeping up with the Jones' charade. Don't focus on other people's stories... figure out what works for you and stick with it. This might mean just buying 5 year GICs. A person could do a lot worse than this!


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

I tend to find that after I buy or sell a stock, I usually only get about 15 minutes where I feel good about the trade and then reality sets in. After about 35 years of this, you start to understand that you will almost never get the best prices in the short term. But that is not the important part of this game. The important thing is to get prices that become profitable over the longer term.

Suffering these little annoyances in the short term is just one of the many costs of doing this business.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

peterk said:


> I think it's a normal reaction of a "conservative" investor to be a little bit PO'd when reckless abandon investing seems to be leading many to riches.
> 
> Who would have thought that instead of doing whatever I've been doing for the last 10 years I should have just moved to Toronto, lied to the bank to get the biggest GD mortgage I could manage, and pumped every spare dime I had into Amazon and Facebook stock? Does that sounds like a good friggen plan??? Yet look what happened...
> 
> Try not to think about those things though... Can be crippling to one's wellbeing... But I take this to be an aired grievances thread where we can let it all out and then move on with life.


good observation pk (well...except for the Toronto part  ...)
yes, I'm 'venting' here....


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

It's hard to watch a stock tumble just after you buy it. I've had that happen many times in the past. However, that being said, I always did my research and bought companies I thought were undervalued at the price I paid. In all those cases, even ones where the stock went to half of what I paid, the stock eventually bounced and went up as expected...some a lot more than expected. 

I trust in my research and don't actually follow the market to closely. It has always worked out for me and I don't lose any sleep. I'm not a market timer, I'm a buy and hold value investor.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

james4beach said:


> ... Additionally, *you only hear about stories where things happened to work out well* for the person. There are countless investors who got destroyed in the countless investment disasters. Just off the top of my head, things like Crocus in Manitoba, Bre-X, *Nortel*, the whole NASDAQ tech bubble, Enron, WorldCom, Canadian income trusts and energy trusts, US banks, US real estate, the Cdn mining sector ...


You missed the bankruptcy of a school bus company.

While I agree with the main point - my experience in real life is that Nortel is an exception. Lots of people have complained to me about how buying a six pack of beer would have been better, how $1 million became almost nothing, how had the brother who knows investing held on so I didn't sell or the delusional "they must be improving based on the share price jump" that ignored the 1:10 reverse split.




james4beach said:


> ... It's part of the keeping up with the Jones' charade. Don't focus on other people's stories... figure out what works for you and stick with it. This might mean just buying 5 year GICs. A person could do a lot worse than this!


It seems more the pain of having one's pride stomped by admitting to the loss. I can recall the anonymous investor profiled in the G&M article in the '90's where it wasn't until the *fourth* round of losses that he figured out that having someone else manage his money worked better for him. 

Or the semi-honest investor who was facing their fourth margin call that has turned six figures in the low range of five figures that on one hand, admitted the leverage was a bad thing but then turned around to complain about big players having better hardware/trade execution times.


Cheers


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

jargey, everyone knows baba is a knock off filled corrupt company. 

And APPL has hit serious headwinds for its over priced stuff. Amazon owns the AI market as it is.

You are falling for fads.


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

With Apple, I think he missed the boat. You invest in a company when it's near the bottom, not when it's considered close to being the most valuable company in the world. I like Apple and everything, but should it really be the most valuable? How much higher can it go when you start there?

To tell the truth, as much as I don't like brokers, they probably do better for the average guy than doing it yourself. People rarely want to put the work in required to do proper investing. It's not a matter of throwing darts at a wall or picking the ones you hear the talking heads going on about...those methods are doomed to failure most of the time. Of course people don't have any idea of how to do research or even read the financial reports, so we can't really blame the results.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

here's a quote from a post on the AAPL thread , circa 2011.....

"I haven't looked at the stock, but i suspect that the stock price currently implies a very high growth rate. Apple has the market cornered in many of its segment, however, as a leader, it will be the first to lose market share with the increase competition. 

What are the chances you will double your money on the stock ? Practically 0 given the 300B market cap. 

I just looked at the chart on Google Finance ... the YTD chart is an interesting roller coaster. Someone could probably buy in at the 320-325 and ride it until the 350 ... the support / resistance levels are pretty evident, 7-8% gain.

If you're looking for long term hold, this probably isn't the best choice. No dividend and limited growth (my opinion) given current market cap and competition."


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

AAPLs problem isnt competition, its innovation. What is the next gadget they can come up with that 4 billion people will buy. Nothing else has shown potential. There was a company like apple before and it was called RCA. Where are they now.


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

Didn't mean to imply they can't grow, just that there are probably better options out there if you looked. I've never suggested selling Apple in years, but I also wouldn't have recommended buying them after they went over $100. Even today they haven't reached $200 to double. If you buy today at $170 do you think it's likely for them to double again? Be twice as valuable as any other company in the world?

There are better companies out there for growth. If you own Apple I'd hold (they've got mountains of cash, huge margins and plenty of sales that I don't see changing any time soon) but growth wise it doesn't make sense. For growth you need to do some digging.


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## carson (Apr 28, 2011)

jargey3000 said:


> so,,,I'd been waiting, watching, procrastinating.....forever.....as usual with me.
> Had my eye on 2 stocks to buy with some freed up US cash. FINALLY decided to take the plunge & put in orders,,,,YESTERDAY......just BEFORE the deluge!
> saw what was happening a bit later & went to CANCEL.....TOO LATE! hoo-boy.... didnt buy at daily highs , but not near the bottom either! ALWAYS seem to happen to ME!
> more bad news today!
> ...


Looks like AAPL closed up for the day. Honestly you can't be concerned about daily price swings with an equity like this; let alone hourly... A stock is only worth what you sell it for. 

Cheers.

And BTW I am also an Apple and BABA shareholder. Welcome to the club


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

appreciate all the input folks...
as pointed out, I'm just letting off a little steam here...
btw, on apple. i keep reading here that mr buffett is loading up on the stock lately. i guess that was a tipping point for me - if it's still good enough for him, i guess it's good enough for me. No?


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

Buffet doesn't really have a good track record when it comes to tech companies. Look at his former investment in IBM for example. He's not an infallible god when it comes to investing.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

jargey3000 said:


> btw, on apple. i keep reading here that mr buffett is loading up on the stock lately. i guess that was a tipping point for me - if it's still good enough for him, i guess it's good enough for me. No?


only if you already hold Wells Fargo and Coke!


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

no free lunch anywhere, if it was easy everyone would be an investor... if you cannot remove your emotions when investing you shouldn't be investing in a first place


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

kcowan said:


> only if you already hold Wells Fargo and Coke!


well...right now i'm holding Bacardi & Coke.....that work ?


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## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

jargey3000 said:


> well...right now i'm holding Bacardi & Coke.....that work ?


Geez, started early today, eh? My favourite too.


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## Steve Divi (Jul 14, 2016)

jargey3000 said:


> so,,,I'd been waiting, watching, procrastinating.....forever.....as usual with me.
> Had my eye on 2 stocks to buy with some freed up US cash. FINALLY decided to take the plunge & put in orders,,,,YESTERDAY......just BEFORE the deluge!
> saw what was happening a bit later & went to CANCEL.....TOO LATE! hoo-boy.... didnt buy at daily highs , but not near the bottom either! ALWAYS seem to happen to ME!
> more bad news today!
> ...


I think you have a good plan. Don't buy stocks.

If you can't stomach a small drop like we had, you will never survive a crash like we had on 08.


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## Steve Divi (Jul 14, 2016)

Just a Guy said:


> Buffet doesn't really have a good track record when it comes to tech companies. Look at his former investment in IBM for example. He's not an infallible god when it comes to investing.


I agree, I actually didn't like it when he bought IBM and I'm not a fan of Apple as well. 

Time will tell.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

Dilbert said:


> Geez, started early today, eh? My favourite too.


ish 5 aclock shomewere....hic!


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

Also, Buffet has pretty much handed over the reigns on managing the stock portfolio for Berkshire to other people. I cannot say how much input he still gives but you can't put someone in charge of a portfolio and then keep second guessing every investment they want to make.

Well, you could, but I doubt Buffet is that dumb.

Anyway, I doubt Apple is Warren Buffet's idea.


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