# Western Forest (WEF.TO)



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Anyone investing in WEF?
http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=WEF


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/16529-Western-Forest-Products-(WEF)


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

There seems to be some buying activity by members of CMF and FWF on this one as of late. I hold a position as well. I have another order in at 1.57. Current ACB is 1.81. The company is well diversified in product and market and financials look stable. There are definitely considerable headwinds for lumber and wood products in the near term. As portfolio dividends roll in I like to keep invested. Could be sometime before this one approaches the $2.90s like it did a year ago. Commodities are cyclical and there is opportunity as a result.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I like that WEF is debt free. It pretty much trades exactly in line with lumber prices, you can practically track whether lumber is up or down based on the daily stock price. So being low, you know lumber prices are hitting new lows. However, I think it is easy to see how it is better to buy the stock at low prices than high prices.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I don't like the sector. I held IFP (which moves in a similar way) but dumped it last year, and I still don't see the appeal of it today. This doesn't look like a bull market in lumber, to me: http://schrts.co/UxZzAFEP


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Yeah, that chart doesn't look like a bull market for lumber. But then I'm a buy-hold-and-hope-to-prosper-investor so it's back to slumbering on this one. Actually, now that you alerted me to the lower price, I think I will buy some more on this dip.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

My Own Advisor said:


> Anyone investing in WEF?
> http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=WEF


I have been buying lumber over the last couple of months in wef,wft and osb


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

james4beach said:


> I don't like the sector. I held IFP (which moves in a similar way) but dumped it last year, and I still don't see the appeal of it today. This doesn't look like a bull market in lumber, to me: http://schrts.co/UxZzAFEP


The problem with lumber stocks is that by the time you have any idea that there actually is a bull market, the stocks have long since moved up. And there's a very real chance that lumber prices are already starting to move back down. Commodity stocks are hard to own, and lumber is no exception, except there are armies of lumber insiders who have better tracking of lumber prices; there's no ticker showing you live wholesale values, unlike oil, gold, etc. Buying when lumber prices are trash and no one is interested is the best strategy if you want in this sector.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Better yet, buy near the end of the low in the cycle to know who the survivors will be, or know who is the low cost producer. In the past when I played in commodities, I was always too early and had to wait another year or two to see a turnaround. Patience can be trying.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

AltaRed said:


> Better yet, buy near the end of the low in the cycle to know who the survivors will be, or know who is the low cost producer. In the past when I played in commodities, I was always too early and had to wait another year or two to see a turnaround. Patience can be trying.


Wouldn't it be a better use of capital to wait for signs it could at least be in a bull trend? By trying to catch a falling knife you could wait 5 or 10 years, and see a stock collapse and de-list, while waiting through a commodity bear market.

http://schrts.co/FDsWaqMU

The lumber price rallied above its 200 day moving average on March 3, 2016 and fell back below it on July 19, 2018. If someone had simply held the lumber stock based on this technical criteria, they'd have seen

WEF +30%
IFP +107%
CFP +97%

This would have also worked during the previous bull trend in lumber from 2012-2013.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

order mentioned upthread got filled today at 1.57.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Cool ... I'm still waiting for my order to get filled at $1.54 ... might need to speed bump the price up but then this will increase my ACB considerably. Dang.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Should have got filled by end of day by the looks of things. ended up at $1.52.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Yes (yay!) as just checked and hopefully it will not go down further. Even it does, I'll pick up some more. :greedy_dollars:


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## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

yes, im in this too. Since 2014 I recall. I have sold my position down on profitable years, and sat on it for the past few years

recently have bought more after liquidating some other holdings, hopefully to ride the next uptick on this one.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

WEF continues to decline, now back near multi-year lows. Lumber futures briefly rallied in June, then weakened again. Like I said before, it just doesn't look like lumber is in any kind of bull market.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Thanks for the warning... I'm keeping my eyes out ... for the all-time-low price.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

I've owned WFT for years, lumber is a roller coaster.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

It is also about log supply. I have no idea if WEFs timber rights on the Island are suffering the constraints of the Interior. I've never followed forestry


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