# Manulife - buy it now or wait?



## Hawkdog

looking for thoughts on whether MFC is a good buy right now or wait till Feb?


----------



## dubmac

What are you investing for - are you looking to invest long or short term? Manulife was one of the most shorted stocks on the TSX - that said it has had a good bounce recently. Low interest rates continue to wreak havoc on their returns - and I expect low rates for the foreseeable future. I hold Manulife and SLF and prefer SLF. Due your own due diligence - if you are a speculating (ie: gambling) then it may be a good choice, but I avoid speculating - others on this forum may be able to offer more advice.


----------



## Hawkdog

Thanks for the feedback.
I own shares, I bought in at 10.50, looking to add to my position, keeping waiting for a pull back......
I am looking to hold long term, it has been on a good run, just wondering what people's thoughts were on the run continuing.


----------



## supperfly17

*stocks*



Hawkdog said:


> Thanks for the feedback.
> I own shares, I bought in at 10.50, looking to add to my position, keeping waiting for a pull back......
> I am looking to hold long term, it has been on a good run, just wondering what people's thoughts were on the run continuing.



I have about 250 shares that I got at 11. Since i am a newbie I am just holding.


----------



## dubmac

look here http://www.stockchase.com/company/view/780 
these are opinions from people who follow stocks etc - mostly opinions from BNN commentators. may be of some help.


----------



## doctrine

I bought Manulife at $17 a few years ago and watched it fall to $10. I then bought in at that level, and now I have a two year return of about 10%. It's not a bad time to add, although I would say there is probably as much downside risk as upside potential. You could consider a half position, and if it drops, add more. There is a pretty hard floor below the stock at $10.


----------



## Hawkdog

thanks! I think i am going to watch it for a bit, got some time before the divi.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Bought some this summer. Long hold.


----------



## Toronto.gal

doctrine said:


> I bought Manulife at $17 a few years ago and watched it fall to $10. I then bought in at that level, and now I have a two year return of about 10%.


Perfect example how averaging down does work! 

I bought near the $20 level in 09, which was about 2 or 3 months after the dividend was reduced, hence I had thought the worst was over, but little did I know that the worst was yet to come! Since then, I have averaged down/dripped several free shares per quarter thanks to the low share price, and trade as well.

Buy/hold/review/prosper [holding for long-term].


----------



## Cal

The share price may dip a little depending upon how the markets look at the US debt ceiling next month. It is a solid buy though imo.

The best time to buy would have been last February. :biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Cal said:


> The best time to buy would have been last February. :biggrin:


In fact, if you missed the Dec.2011 dip, there had been gazillion other opportunities for lower rates than Feb./2012 even, from May 2012 all the way to Aug.2012, when they were a bargain.


----------



## Hawkdog

picked up lots at under 11.00

nice jump today!


----------



## Uranium101

I bought a lot every time it dips to 5% yield.


----------



## 1sImage

I own 630s, seems to be sneeking up a bit. Good stock to hold on too.


----------



## Toronto.gal

1sImage said:


> sneeking up a bit.


Not just a bit, but 40% in just the last 2 quarters.

It has been such a bargain for so long! Now the dividends are doing all the work for my long-term position & buying me dozens of shares per quarter [while I continue to trade it on the way up as well].


----------



## 1sImage

You put your money back into them.^ From your returns?


----------



## Toronto.gal

I DRIP them with CST [Transfer Agent], so yes, I reinvest 100% of dividends, which in turn, increases my # of shares and dividend payment every quarter. Given the shares have been very low, it has worked out very well, ie: dividends could buy higher # of shares than if stock had been higher. 

Though total return = capital appreciation + dividends, I don't consider the latter a return, but simply a bonus.


----------



## Cal

Uranium101 said:


> I bought a lot every time it dips to 5% yield.


That is a good entry point.


----------



## praire_guy

Toronto.gal said:


> I DRIP them with CST [Transfer Agent], so yes, I reinvest 100% of dividends, which in turn, increases my # of shares and dividend payment every quarter. Given the shares have been very low, it has worked out very well, ie: dividends could buy higher # of shares than if stock had been higher.
> 
> Though total return = capital appreciation + dividends, I don't consider the latter a return, but simply a bonus.


You don't consider dividends as part of your return? Or do you mean the additional shares purchased via DRIP?


----------



## OptsyEagle

I don't understand why institutional investors are not buying this in droves. The two issues that brought it down from it's BlueChip status were the unhedged guarantees on the segregated funds and the lowering to rediculously low levels of available interest rates.

In the last five years they have significantly increased their hedge on segregated funds as well as significantly adjusting the guarantees. I also have a hard time seeing interest rates going that much lower to cause them anything near the hardships that they had in the past. The 10 year GOC bond yield is currently less then 2%. Simple math tells me that it is unlikely that this rate drops by more then 2%.

I think people get fixated on all the idiot commentaries that tell us that these insurance companies are hurting from low rates. The realilty is that they did get hurt from lowering interest rates. As long as interest rates don't keep going lower (by more then a couple percentage points, and again, kind of tough to do) Manulife will do fine. 

Remember all those write downs over the last 5 years. That was Manulife adjusting for the decrease in interest rates that had occured over each quarter. So, again, all the investor has to ask themselves now is, will rates keep going lower? If the answer is yes, stay away from this stock, if the answer is no, back up the truck. If the answer is, rates will stay about the same, enjoy the dividend.

That is my opinion.


----------



## Toronto.gal

OptsyEagle said:


> all the investor has to ask themselves now is, will rates keep going lower? If the answer is yes, stay away from this stock, if the answer is no, back up the truck. If the answer is, rates will stay about the same, enjoy the dividend.


I agree 1000% with everything you said, and I did just that the last couple of years, accumulated shares big time, and indeed I now enjoy receiving my dividend/drip statement every quarter & just watch the shares increase by themselves! That's my couch potato approach. 

*praire_guy:* yes, technically I do, I just meant that I view dividend returns in a diffeent way than stock appreciation.


----------



## Eclectic12

OptsyEagle said:


> In the last five years they have significantly increased their hedge on segregated funds as well as significantly adjusting the guarantees.
> 
> I think people get fixated on all the idiot commentaries that tell us that these insurance companies are hurting from low rates. The realilty is that they did get hurt from lowering interest rates. As long as interest rates don't keep going lower (by more then a couple percentage points, and again, kind of tough to do) Manulife will do fine...


Of course, in the last five years there is also the dividend cut, which most of the other insurers seems to have avoided.

Since I didn't own any stock that paid the higher dividend, the cut didn't bother me.


Cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

why would i buy something in overbought territory?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Eclectic12 said:


> the cut didn't bother me.


At first, didn't bother me either, as I had bought 2 months after they reduced the dividend [reduced in Aug. 09], however, as we all know, it got even worse from there.

There are some advantages, however, with devaluation of stocks, ie: ability to accumulate, hence increasing dividend payment. It was much easier adding shares @$10/11/12, than @$20 [09 prices].


----------



## My Own Advisor

As rates climb, over the next 5 years, this will be a $20 stock.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I see more than 40% increase in the next 5 years. IMHO, I say by 2016/17, a valuation closer to where the stock was in early 2008, than what it was in late 2009.


----------



## GoldStone

My Own Advisor said:


> As rates climb, over the next 5 years, this will be a $20 stock.


It's not a certainty that rates will climb. Look at Japan. They've been stuck in deflationary trap for what... 20 years?

Deflation 'worst possible world' for life insurers

Disclaimer: I have no opinion on Manulife.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> I see more than 40% increase in the next 5 years. IMHO, I say by 2016/17, a valuation closer to where the stock was in early 2008, than what it was in late 2009.





My Own Advisor said:


> As rates climb, over the next 5 years, this will be a $20 stock.


I am not being an Arse alright?
if u both see this great growth on MFC why don't you guys buy 2015 leaps?
where do you see this stock in 2016?
it is only 2 years from now.
a lot less leverage tan the underlying stock.
i have a real predicting things that far.
It has to be my natural gas trader part speaking louder.
and that is why i cannot trade equities.
most of the times when i try to predict direction i do get burned.
cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

GoldStone said:


> It's not a certainty that rates will climb. Look at Japan. They've been stuck in deflationary trap for what... 20 years?
> 
> Deflation 'worst possible world' for life insurers
> 
> Disclaimer: I have no opinion on Manulife.


you cannot be serious.
interest rates will climb before you know it.


----------



## GoldStone

thenegotiator said:


> you cannot be serious.
> interest rates will climb before you know it.


Put your money where your mouth is. Make a big bet on the rising rates. Post a copy of your brokerage transaction here. I trust you not to photoshop it. :encouragement:


----------



## thenegotiator

GoldStone said:


> Put your money where your mouth is. Make a big bet on the rising rates. Post a copy of your brokerage transaction here. I trust you not to photoshop it. :encouragement:


and...
where do I bet that interest rates will rise?
i put my money where my mouth is .
what about ya?
is there an instrument for that that i Dunno?:encouragement::encouragement:

Helicopter Ben never failed me.
he will not fail me yet again


----------



## Cal

Depends how much you think rates will go up, how fast, and to what extent.

RBC thinks a .5 increase will come by the end of the year. 

http://www.thestar.com/business/art...rise-half-a-percentage-point-in-2013-rbc-says


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> if u both see this great growth on MFC why don't you guys buy 2015 leaps?


I believe in my plan [not excluding LEAPS].

What had initially attracted me to select MFC over GWO/SLF, was not only the price, but its huge presence in their Asian division & continued expansion; Cambodia became their 11th Asian market in 2012, and looking to expand next in India and South Korea.

2013 is not at all what I had imagined it to be back in 2009, when I purchased the stock, and so only time will tell how things will look 5 years from now with respect to interest rates and other factors.


----------



## doctrine

Manulife in terms of revenue is doing quite well. And where a lot of companies are struggling with mutual fund redemptions (IGM, AGF), Manulife has a net influx of mutual funds. I would say in the $10-15 range, they're priced for a couple more years of low interest rates. If rates go up, then MFC will rise a lot more.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> I believe in my plan [not excluding LEAPS].
> 
> What had initially attracted me to select MFC over GWO/SLF, was not only the price, but its huge presence in their Asian division & continued expansion; Cambodia became their 11th Asian market in 2012, and looking to expand next in India and South Korea.
> 
> 2013 is not at all what I had imagined it to be back in 2009, when I purchased the stock, and so only time will tell how things will look 5 years from now with respect to interest rates and other factors.



belief is all u need.
just joking.
if u see fundamentals for growth.... then... u know what to do ..
As for me and knowing me by heart I have absolutely no confidence in anything right?
and that is why I mentioned leaps... less risk... less leverage.
Oh my what am I doing ?
u know ur stuff:encouragement:


----------



## doctrine

http://www.manulife.com/public/files/201/1/MFC_4Q12_PR.pdf

Q4 results out - $0.56 per share. Full year earnings of $1.7B or $0.88. Not bad, considering they had some major writedowns taken off that.


----------



## Hawkdog

Gotta like it.


----------



## Uranium101

The company must be going through some restructuring to have created so much write-offs over the past couple of quarters.


----------



## supperfly17

Yes that is true. Lots of restructuring. I bet the next couple of quarters will show record profits due to restructuring. Stock is doing quite well nowadays anyways.


----------



## Cal

It is up a fair bit lately, waiting to see what happens to the share price after the date of record passes.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Uranium101 said:


> The company must be going through some restructuring to have created so much write-offs over the past couple of quarters.


That is the nature of their business these days. They are required to address the "change in interest rates" over their entire block of business and their obligations towards the "guarantees on their segregated funds", each quarter. They do this by making large write offs or by taking large profits, in and out of income, each quarter. This is not going to change. It is the core earnings that are important, unless the write offs or large profits increase or decrease capital, which they will. In those cases you need to factor in the dilution of a capital raise and or and increase in dividends or acquisitions, depending on whether it was a write up or write down.

The main point here, is a common misconception that the investing community has with Manulife and Sun Life, etc., is that in a low interest rate environment, they will struggle. That is almost correct. The actual truth is that in a "lowering" interest rate environment, they will struggle. Once the rates stabilize they will be fine and very profitable, since they have already written off the bad stuff pertaining to the previous interest rate declines. That is why you want to buy these stocks when you feel interest rates are close to the bottom (within 1% or so) as opposed to waiting until they start going up, to buy the stock.

You can observe the smarter money starting to move these stocks up, for this reason, as we speak.


----------



## doctrine

And the smart investors buying in on the way down are starting to be rewarded. Lots of people here bought at $18-20 then doubled down at $10-11, and now are turning profitable. I'm now looking at 20%+ return over 2 years. The magic of DCA..


----------



## Toronto.gal

+1 doctrine about the 'smart' part & the 'doubling down'! :encouragement:

Though someone on this forum told me that the DCA strategy has little effect after 5 years. :confused2:


----------



## Hawkdog

I bought more on the last dip, right before the earnings announcement,

Took the advice about my CIBC 512 mutual fund - sold it bought more MFC and then bought some BNS.


----------



## Uranium101

Cool, should I add more now?


----------



## dubmac

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ife-poised-for-a-big-rebound/article11880823/
looks like a few analysts are bullish on MFC.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The Asian growth is exactly what I had been counting on, and the very reason why I did not shy away from the company's 'disasters', quite the contrary! 

Just last July they were trading barely above $10, so almost 60% since then, so it figures that now the analysts are recommending it, lol.


----------



## Hawkdog

And I believe you mentioned you have opted for more units each month? nice, very nice.




Toronto.gal said:


> The Asian growth is exactly what I had been counting on, and the very reason why I did not shy away from the company's 'disasters', quite the contrary!
> 
> Just last July they were trading barely above $10, so almost 60% since then, so it figures that now the analysts are recommending it, lol.


----------



## Toronto.gal

With non-reg. account, I set-up a true DRIP right after I purchased 3.5 years ago, and by now, the purchasing power of said dividends have purchased extra shares every quarterly [not monthly], plus, I have exercised my free commission OCP on a quarterly basis as well while the prices were so cheap, and financed said purchases with trading profits [can't do OCP monthly with MFC as can be done with other companies]. 

Additionally, I have synthetic DRIPs with all my reg. accounts as Transfer Agents can't handle such accounts.


----------



## OptsyEagle

This stock was a screaming buy about a year ago and I would say it is still a pretty good buy today. The investment community read their business model dead wrong . I must have heard dozens and dozens of analysts and gurus and private investors go on about how tough it is for insurance companies to make money in a low interest rate environment. As I have said on this thread before, insurance companies have a hard time making money in a "lowering" interest rate environment. Once rates bottom, it is all speed ahead, since they are required to write down the loss on their entire book each quarter on whatever the new interest rates are. As long as they stop going down a lot, this company will clean up. Wait until you see what happens if rates ever go back up.

The stock market was another issue of concern, but if the analysts read the quarterly reports they should have noted that Manulife was increasing their hedge on their equity exposure in almost every quarterly report for the last 4 years. At this stage their exposure is almost negligible.

Anyway, those types of errors is what makes a good investment, at least in my opinion.


----------



## doctrine

My Manulife shares have a 1 year total return of 36%. Sometimes it takes a while to realize gains but it's nice when they come.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Nice work doctrine. I own some MFC. Got in around $11. Now DRIPping it thanks to the low entry point.


----------



## 1sImage

I rarely look at this stock, I looked after reading this thread though. I guess it is moving up nicely.

Only holding 630 shares though.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Only? Geez, you got me by 500.


----------



## Hawkdog

I should start using a DRIP with this one, but we hold 2500 shares between our RRSPs and TFSAs. We are using the dividend to build up positions in other stocks.


----------



## Toronto.gal

When did you buy first? 

Sure, there are various good ways to deploy cash, but for me, I found that reinvesting free money when the shares were cheap, made the most sense for long-term holds, so I've been dripping for some time now. 

I also have a high volume of MFC shares; in the last 4 quarters, dividends purchased additional shares at following prices:

*- June/2012:* $10.62920 
*- Sept./2012*: $11.99420
*- Dec./2012:* $12.87490
*- March/2013:* $15.12440 

*- average:* $12.655
*- current price:* $15.85, which is higher than at any quarter last year when dividends were paid.

Didn't like the March statement too much, and probably even less the next one as the dividend purchasing power as you can see, has been decreasing every quarter as the stock price has steadily increased, and that's why we must not fret when the markets go down.

Your 2,500 shares would have paid a dividend of $1,300/yr. [twice that once div. is fully reinstated to its prior quarterly of $.26].

- $1,300 would have bought about 102 free shares @ an average price of $12.65 this past year;
- at current price, those free shares would be up by 26%, or $326.40 [$15.85 - $12.65 = $3.20 x 102 = $326.40]
- total returns = $1,626.40 [div. of $1,300 + stock appreciation of $326.40]

And that is not even counting your returns on the 2,500 shares, but sure you could have done better elsewhere in the probable world of investments, but if something you want is already cheap, why look elsewhere is how I think.

If you drip for say 20 years, what can you conclude? No need to answer [probably only MOA gets it].


----------



## Hawkdog

I purchased most of the shares @ 10.90, added shares on the way up to 14.

Thanks for the insight and putting the math to paper so to speak! I am going to reevaluate.

For my RRSP, I have been adding my monthly dividends to my regular contributions (separate from the matching RRSP program thru work), I put in $500 bucks from each pay cheque, so $1000/month, and then watch for an entry point on a different stock or in one I already own. 

Its only been in the last year or so that I have focused on Dividend stocks and MFC was one of the first ones I purchased.


----------



## My Own Advisor

T.gal, you make me laugh! 

@Hawkdog, sounds like you have a healthy weighting in MFC. Very nice entry point. Well done. I like your plan, adding dividends to regular contributions. We do the same for RRSP, DRIP most of the stuff in there including the ETFs in the RRSP. 

As T.gal nicely referred to, I'm a big fan of DRIPping stocks, both traditional and synthetic. I'm largely done with the traditional/full DRIPs and now only reinvest dividends in my brokerage account. I'd like to get all 28 CDN stocks I own DRIPping at some point, but I've got some distance to go on that. All in good time.


----------



## Uranium101

I picked up tons when it was yielding at 5%.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Hawkdog said:


> and MFC was one of the first ones I purchased.


It was the *very 1st stock* I purchased; now my #2 holding.

Fantastic ACB; you as well MOA & Uranium.


----------



## supperfly17

Toronto.gal said:


> It was the *very 1st stock* I purchased; now my #2 holding.
> 
> Fantastic ACB; you as well MOA & Uranium.


Hopefully we see 20s in the near future.


----------



## Beaver101

Wow, it hit $18 today ... getting close to $20. :encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

But when it gets to $20, it will have merely recovered from the lows of late 2009, so lots of upside potential.

YTD = 33%, but near 80% since just a year ago, so congrats to all those that may have bought at those prices! Won't like the next statement from the transfer agent, however.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Toronto.gal said:


> - June/2012: $10.62920
> *- Sept./2012*: $11.99420
> *- Dec./2012:* $12.87490
> *- March/2013:* $15.12440


Just now getting caught up with 2nd quarter statements [from Transfer Agents]. As DRIPpers know, June 2013 dividend payments purchased shares @ $15.65530, and if you compare with those noted above from a year ago in June 2012, the div. purchasing power has diminished substantially by the share price increase of +$5.0261 in the last 12 months {$10+ to $15+}, and $7+ in the last 13 months {$10+ to $18} [that's why long-term shareholders should not be upset at nauseating corrections/drops of 'some' stocks]. 

It will be interesting to see the price next in Sept.


----------



## Beaver101

And traders will be deliriously happy to see the eventual rise in the price stocks - win-win! each:


----------



## Islenska

Just getting into the black on MFC, it has been a long road but dripping is the route to go, almost put a way and let the ball roll.

Other lifecos like SLF and GWO also showing a nice rebound.

Amazing if you listen to analysts over the last 2years, lifecos were a "dead" investment and now they are postulating.............


----------



## Toronto.gal

Traders also accomplish lowering/correcting their ACBs when taking profits into account [when investing it in same stock when it drops].


----------



## Toronto.gal

Islenska said:


> 1. Just getting into the black on MFC, it *has been a long road*
> 2. but dripping is the route to go, almost put a way and let the ball roll.
> 3. lifecos were a "dead" investment................


*1.* Were you strictly a buy/hold investor, or did you take some corrective measures? The stock did drop by more than -50% from late 09, so I'm just wondering, if for example, you had bought at $20/$18/$15, etc., would you not have bought at $10, where it was just a year ago to average down & accumulate shares? When the latter is done, then the road is not that long, of course it depends on the fundamentals of the co. in question.

*2.* Especially when the stock has been beaten to death, as who wants to accumulate when the stock is expensive/at a year high, etc.?

*3. *They certainly were if you were to ask those who bought prior to 2008, in the $40+ range and just held.


----------



## Islenska

Did some averaging down with MFC, lots with SLF so feeling more cocky there.

It can be a tricky deal because I have lots of Apple and ABX that I averaged down on and you know where they are at!

Current investment theme for myself is to leave the decent dividend payers alone and use options for the spicy side of our portfolio.
Finally set up that the div/interest return will pay the bills going forward, a long time I hope!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Islenska said:


> 1. Did some averaging down with MFC, *lots with SLF* so feeling more cocky there.
> 2. It can be a tricky deal because I have lots of Apple and ABX that I averaged down on and you know where they are at!
> 3. leave the decent dividend payers alone.....


*1.* Good for you, so even though the stocks have appreciated since you purchased, with enough volume of accumulated shares at reasonable prices, your dividends will now do some, or all of the work for you!

*2. * Tricky for sure, though I would not have compared the beaten down financial sectors to those that were rising like there was no tomorrow. In the case of the market's favourite, like AAPL, that was going up in almost a straight line up to last Sept., the drop was to be expected, albeit not so drastically & not necessarily when it did. And actually same could be said for gold's spectacular rise from $700+ to almost $2,000 in the last 5 years alone. Who saw the radical & sudden drop in gold prices anyway? Funny how quickly most of the downgrades came after April 15th, lol. I avoided the large miners & opted for the mid-caps instead, and frankly, not losing sleep over them as I'm sure they will rise again, and also because I trade them, so I continue to reduce my risk/ACB in the process. 

*3.* Not leave them exactly, but increase them when the price is right!


----------



## newbi

I have this in my TFSA portfolio too @ 14.1 .. thinking of selling but not sure.. esp with interest rising.


----------



## maxandrelax

newbi, as long as "interest" due to interest rates slowly climbing continues, hold on. 

unless you need the cash I'd hold. I would only sell if it drops below 17.50 or so and then reconsider. I'm holding MFC for a long time.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The stock, and the one that lost the most in comparison, is still cheap, so I would not sell, unless you have short-term goals/don't believe the company will continue to recover/believe major crises are around the corner, etc. 

*@maxandrelax:* If you're a long-term investor, why would you sell in the above scenario? I would accumulate if the stock were to drop, or even at near current levels, except I made it my #2 holding already while it was previously so affordable. 

Let's see if they'll hit their estimated 2016 $4 billion profit target, and perhaps by then, the current reduced dividend might be increased.

Their presence in Asia is what made me buy the stock, which I plan to hold for 10+ years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-plans-to-accelerate-growth-in-indonesia.html


----------



## HaroldCrump

newbi, further to the above, your profits at this time are not large enough to justify selling this stock.
IMHO, there is a lot more upside to come.
At some point soon (hopefully) the dividend will be restored to its former level.
Manulife had the dubious distinction of being the only large Canadian financial institution to cut its dividend in the aftermath of the crisis.
The top priority of its management must be to restore profitability with the goal of restoring the former dividend (at least I would expect so).

Your profit at this time is about 30% (excluding dividends).
IMHO, you should hold on a little while longer...the stock is on a strong uptrend.

However, if you don't want to get caught in the famous greed trap, you could sell half your position now at $18.30 and wait for a pullback to the $17.50 range and then buy back in.


----------



## newbi

Thanks for all your opinions guys! and good information tg!! 

I am going to hold on to it for longer - I am not in need of the money invested in the stock


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> 1. The top priority of its management must be to restore profitability with the goal of restoring the former dividend (at least I would expect so).
> 2. you could sell half your position now at $18.30 and wait for a pullback to the $17.50 range and then buy back in.


*1.* When the div. is restored, I might just retire before J.Snow. :biggrin: 
*2.* It would depend on his # of shares. If for example he had 100 sh, selling 50 would only give him around $200 in profits after fees. If he were to pick the 50 @$17.50, his ACB would increase to around $15.80 from $14.10.

*newbi:* see, when you disappear, ie: don't follow the markets, the right stock goes up! :encouragement:


----------



## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> *2.* It would depend on his # of shares. If for example he had 100 sh, selling 50 would only give him around $200 in profits after fees. If he were to pick the 50 @$17.50, his ACB would increase to around $15.80 from $14.10.


That is true.
100 shares of MFC would be underweighting IMO.
In fact, $18 would not be a bad entry point either, if one is willing to hold for ~ 5 years.


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* ...
> *newbi:* see, when you disappear, ie: don't follow the markets, the right stock goes up! :encouragement:


 ... lol! Picking on the newbees heh? :biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

He's no newbi; he joined in 09, so I'm the newbi, or maybe u r.


----------



## newbi

Toronto.gal said:


> He's no newbi; he joined in 09, so I'm the newbi, or maybe u r.


hahaha it's just because TG knows i disappear every now and then, and then come back at random times! LOL
yeah i've been lurker for quite sometime before i actually started posting.. nevertheless I learn a lot in this forum and hope to learn more!


----------



## My Own Advisor

My Own Advisor said:


> As rates climb, over the next 5 years, this will be a $20 stock.


Closed at over $18 today. On its way...sooner than later.


----------



## tinypotato

Considering MFC.

Any thoughts on MFC vs SLF vs GWO (and also PWF)?


----------



## Cal

If QE begins to taper next month, markets will realize rising rates are not far off, most life co's should fare well because of this.


----------



## Toronto.gal

tinypotato said:


> Considering MFC.
> 
> Any thoughts on MFC vs SLF vs GWO (and also PWF)?


*tp:* here are 2 good articles from 2011/12, that you might want to read to understand the impact of interest rates:

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/17/sun-life-warns-of-major-q3-loss-shares-tumble/
http://www.swissre.com/media/news_releases/nr_20120910_Interest_rate_challenge.html

I view GWO as the BNS of banks, ie: the most conservative.


----------



## Beaver101

But then tp can't go wrong with buying MFC (if he/she did). An alternative is to consider an ETF of banks and life insurers (from Ishares or Bank of Montreal or Vanguard, can't remember symbol, perhaps someone else can fill this in) - and get them all. Cheers,


----------



## Toronto.gal

Beaver101 said:


> But then tp can't go wrong with buying MFC (if he/she did).


You know how I feel about MFC; I think I've written enough about it here.

By 'conservative' I meant just that, but personally, when it comes to these stocks [banks and insurers], I'm anything but conservative, or have u forgotten my bank is CM, and that I own the big 5? :chuncky:

I don't know about ETFs, but for certain stocks, I rather own them outright & pay zero MERs, as I have time on my side.


----------



## leeder

How about Power Corp or Power Financial? Should these not do well when rates rise? They also hold a few financial and life cos. Pay a good dividend, albeit they haven't been raised. Desmarais family owns a significant portion of the shares (the last I heard).


----------



## fatcat

i have mfc but i sold my pow and bought slf
pow is a weird mix of products
you get the european commodities along with insurance


----------



## Synergy

I'd rather purchase GWO directly, then to own PFW. Currently I have both SLF & MFC on my radar but I can't seem to pull the trigger at these levels...


----------



## My Own Advisor

I own most, SLF, MFC, POW and PWF. DRIPping all of them. Disappointed the dividends haven't increased yet, but keep hoping for a divi bump from all of them within the year. 

Those who loaded up on these lifecos and their holding companies at their lows, were very smart.


----------



## blin10

reminds me when I bought SLF around 19 and sold it for 23, now kicking myself should of held it, oh well :>


----------



## Beaver101

There will always be another chance on this stock-market-roller coaster ... and long live buy-hold-pray-and prosper! :smilet-digitalpoint


----------



## Toronto.gal

Those far from retirement, who don't appreciate/take advantage of the beauty of roller-coasters, ie: MFC at $10, don't fully understand investing.


----------



## supperfly17

In need of some money. Want to sell half of my mfc shares. Would be about 300 shares. Sell this week or wait until Nov 5th. Nov 7th their earnings come out.


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ If you need the money for something important that you can't get elsewhere, and by a certain date, then I would go for the sure thing. 

If you assume the earnings will be positive, and that shares might rise by +10% or thereabouts from current price, you would be up by about $550 on the increase alone; would you be ok. with the reverse scenario?

YTD = 37% [after disastrous quarters in previous years].


----------



## My Own Advisor

Still holding T.Gal...and SLF and other lifecos as well.


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ Definitely holding as well MOA, and just letting the 'magic pill' perform its cumulative magic effect every Q.  

*Blin:* when did you sell SLF @$23, in 2012? Were you not able to get back-in, or did you just move on? The stock not only rose to $24+ in Q2/2012, but also dropped back to $20 in same quarter, so you could have picked them up again for almost your original purchase price.

In hindsight, I regret not having added SLF to my portfolio, although I increased my MFC position considerably when the prices were in bargain territory.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I must have bought those SLF shares from blin10 since I bought SLF in 2012 for about $23.

Before you congratulate me on my 50% gain, like an idiot I sold covered calls ;o)
But fortunately not for the entire position. Just for half of it.


----------



## My Own Advisor

@Harold, yeah, been there...for every buyer there is a seller. 

You still do lots of calls? Not buy-and-hold?


----------



## HaroldCrump

My Own Advisor said:


> You still do lots of calls? Not buy-and-hold?


It's both...buy and hold, _and_ sell covered calls several strike prices higher than current.
But only for those stocks that I want to hold long term.


----------



## blin10

some time in late '11 early '12 I don't exactly remember and too lazy to look it up... at that point I was convinced spx will retest 1050, but it never did.... yah I could of picked it up again, but i think it was the time with all that euro noise I decided to play it safe and be more defensive...



Toronto.gal said:


> ^ Definitely holding as well MOA, and just letting the 'magic pill' perform its cumulative magic effect every Q.
> 
> *Blin:* when did you sell SLF @$23, in 2012? Were you not able to get back-in, or did you just move on? The stock not only rose to $24+ in Q2/2012, but also dropped back to $20 in same quarter, so you could have picked them up again for almost your original purchase price.
> 
> In hindsight, I regret not having added SLF to my portfolio, although I increased my MFC position considerably when the prices were in bargain territory.


----------



## Toronto.gal

blin10 said:


> at that point I was convinced spx will retest 1050, but it never did......


Yes, it was a bad time thanks to the EU mess & other factors. I did however, manage to pick some great bargains the summer of 2012, but was also a bit too defensive with others, and why I mostly added to existing positions.


----------



## Islenska

Wow more good news, congrats T-gal for your sunny outlook for Manulife, good call.

Just checked I have ~7000 shares so glad I stuck with it and other lifecos & banks, buying lowish on some.

Of course wish I hadn't taken profit on TD, BCE and Royal-------hey that is investing!


----------



## My Own Advisor

7000 shares???

wow.


----------



## Hawkdog

Must be some happy MFC holders out there, getting close to the double point for those who bought at the bottom.


----------



## Hawkdog

So does anyone have a sell target on MFC yet? what would be a reasonable target, 30 bucks?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Hawkdog said:


> Must be some happy MFC holders out there, getting close to the double point for those who bought at the bottom.


Happy = yes & no, because the DRIPping power is way less now. Dec.2013, shares were dripped @ $19.39 vs $12.8749 the year prior.

I made it a top holding in 2012, so yes, happy about it, but have no intention to sell, just accumulate via true & synthetic DRIPs. 

You also bought at a great entry price if I remember correctly, but were not using div. to add?


----------



## Hawkdog

I stopped buying after it hit $15, but my first 1000 shares I purchased just hit 100% return today!

I think you answered my question though, thank you, that being no intention to sell.

Thanks!


----------



## Islenska

Been guilty of trimming some Manulife at 20ish but wow this market does not seem to want to quit-----------famous last words

At some point MFC will boost their dividend hopefully to pre-crash days.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I could see them hiking dividend as soon as rates climb. Same for GWO and SLF. Maybe early 2015?


----------



## Synergy

Lifecos taking a hit this morning - MFC was down 4%. Looking to start a position if it gets closer to $18.


----------



## marina628

This is on my watch list but have not bought yet , keep getting side tracked by other stocks .


----------



## Pvo

she's getting there. 
19.69 -0.86 (-4.18%)


----------



## My Own Advisor

It might come down, like everything else (we hope)


----------



## dubmac

I saw an announcement in the G&M today (pg B7) about a class action vs. MFC (Allesandro) today. 
If you bought MFC shares between 2004 and 2009, you may be included among others in the court proceedings. I don't know any of the details tho...


----------



## Cal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...e-for-life-insurers-to-shine/article18940379/


----------



## leeder

Manulife acquires Canadian operations of Standard Life. 

Might be a dip tomorrow in share price, but I think it's a pretty good acquisition. I like how the President & CEO said that the acquisition "will enhance [the] ability to increase dividends in the future."


----------



## My Own Advisor

Just what the investors want to hear leeder


----------



## Lena100

MFC has a new subscription. Is $21.50 a good entry point?


----------



## leeder

MFC is trading at attractive valuations. If you're a buy-and-hold investor, it's as good a time as any to initiate a position. It will benefit when rates go up, which can balance out your portfolio if you have lots of utilities and REITs.


----------



## gardner

Is the $0.16 dividend a one-time special or is it permanently up from $0.13?
If it's the new normal, I would be looking for a yield of 3% or a stock price of $21.33.
Not there yet, but it's on my watch list for sure.


----------



## HaroldCrump

It is a "permanent" increase, not a one-time special dividend.


----------



## MrCarter

HaroldCrump said:


> It is a "permanent" increase, not a one-time special dividend.


Do you think Manulife will continue to rise dividends over time to keep the yield inline with the peer group?


----------



## fatcat

i just had to check when the OP started the thread MFC was at $14 and change
so at least we have an answer to the original question :biggrin:


----------



## gardner

I've been looking to get into MFC since they upped their dividend. Finally pulled the trigger in this week's pullback. I hope I didn't jump too soon.


----------



## Cal

^ If you are thinking long term hold, you will probably be happy in a year or two, as rates slowly increase.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Hopefully rates will increase Cal....hopefully....I'll believe it when I see it though!


----------



## kaleb0

Given that the market is down today (for the what, 4th or 5th day in a row now), I have an order in for MFC @ 22.38 that just may fill (adding to an existing position I started at $20.90~ or so a while back). I also hope I'm not pulling the trigger too soon but, if I could accurately time the market I wouldn't be wasting time on this forum (not that I don't love you all! :stupid: )

EDIT: 330 to 360 bid lots at 22.40 - quite the wall of resistance, people like round numbers I guess


----------



## gardner

kaleb0 said:


> MFC @ 22.38


I see it trading at 21.39 right now.


----------



## gardner

MFC seems to be hit pretty hard today. I picked up some this morning at 19.80 and it's still dropping.


----------



## blin10

gardner said:


> MFC seems to be hit pretty hard today. I picked up some this morning at 19.80 and it's still dropping.


think it's because if correction continues you won't see interests rate increase anytime soon where insurance companies make a bank


----------

