# Getting Ready to Drive Over the Fiscal Cliff



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The do nothing U.S. politicians have about two more weeks to compromise on the fiscal cliff with little evidence that either side is prepared to bend. The Republicans are against any tax increases of any kind including to the richest Americans and the Democrats feel that they won the election and therefore don't need to compromise on their principals.

If no agreement is arrived at, what do you think the effect of going over the fiscal cliff will have on the markets and will this effect be short or longer term?

Have your, or are you, doing anything to your portfolio in anticipation that the fiscal cliff may not be avoided after all?

My thoughts on all of this is a pox on both of their houses. Apparently, compromise, when it comes to the U.S. government is a thing of the past.

Thank goodness that Canada has Harper--one of the great compromisers of all time!!:rolleyes2::highly_amused::chargrined::confused2:


----------



## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

I think the bull will get ramped up. The puffing and huffing will continue thru a couple deadline the markets will look wobbly. And then thrrrrub (that's a fart). The next news story will take over.

If it's in the news the markets have already adjusted.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I think they will continue down the road to disaster with the pedal to the metal. The so called fiscal cliff will be a mirage like the spending limit, downgrade of the US credit rating, year after year of unprecedented deficits, MF Global scandal, housing collapse, stock market crash etc etc etc.

The powers that be will continue to lie and deny, extend and pretend while the country spirals down to ruin. The plans are already in place to turn the US into what Eastern Europe was before the fall of the Berlin Wall.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

With the U.S. deficit now as huge as it is, will we ever again return to what we previously perceived as 'normal'?


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Yes, give it time. Maybe after Obama's second term.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

The main thing I have done, starting years ago, was to stop buying any US Treasuries. I no longer buy any American government bonds, and don't imagine I will even consider buying any until the USA defaults.


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The fiscal cliff and the Euro Debt Crisis are just fodder for the media. Best to ignore them in your long range investment plan.


----------



## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

I don't think it will happen. The Republicans don't want to look like the bad guys in all of this. Even if it does extend beyond the New Year, there will be no long term effects.

IMO it is all media and hype, set out to sell newspapers, and panic the uninformed.


----------



## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

It's Y2K all over again...


----------



## scomac (Aug 22, 2009)

Four Pillars said:


> It's Y2K all over again...


Have you noticed that it seems as though we have been subjected to an almost never ending stream of Y2K's since the late 90's? The sordid truth is that hysteria sells. It's a compulsory component to any media marketing plan.


----------



## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

True the media is reporting it and Obama is using the media to warn investors, so the markets can react in a more moderate fashion.

If it's in the news the markets have account for it.

Greece has went thur 47 deadlines, nobody even listens anymore. It's in the news.


----------



## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

scomac said:


> Have you noticed that it seems as though we have been subjected to an almost never ending stream of Y2K's since the late 90's? The sordid truth is that hysteria sells. It's a compulsory component to any media marketing plan.


Yup. I guess companies do what works. And if you put out some kind of "survey", it seems most newspapers will treat it like a story.


----------



## underemployedactor (Oct 22, 2011)

Belguy said:


> The do nothing U.S. politicians have about two more weeks to compromise on the fiscal cliff with little evidence that either side is prepared to bend. The Republicans are against any tax increases of any kind including to the richest Americans and the Democrats feel that they won the election and therefore don't need to compromise on their principals.
> 
> If no agreement is arrived at, what do you think the effect of going over the fiscal cliff will have on the markets and will this effect be short or longer term?
> 
> ...


It's actually "a plague o' both your houses" R&J Act III sc i.
Whether fiscal cliff is a media invention or not, the perception is if no deal is done then the US will be plunged into recession. Perception matters more than reality.


----------



## scomac (Aug 22, 2009)

underemployedactor said:


> Perception matters more than reality.


Perception IS reality. The mind sees what it wants to.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

According to Letterman, the vast majority of Americans are scared to death of the fiscal cliff.

Also, the vast majority of Americans have absolutely no idea of what the fiscal cliff is.:hopelessness::cower::cower::hopelessness:


----------



## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Belguy said:


> According to Letterman, the vast majority of Americans are scared to death of the fiscal cliff.
> 
> Also, the vast majority of Americans have absolutely no idea of what the fiscal cliff is.:hopelessness::cower::cower::hopelessness:


thanks Belguy I needed a good laugh today, I hope nobody is offended that I found that hilariously funny ;-)

edit.. funny yes but kinda sad at the same time, one of those ones where it's funny because it's true


----------



## 44545 (Feb 14, 2012)

This article came to mind in relation to the supposed profligate spending of the US government:

http://www.shirky.com/weblog/2010/04/the-collapse-of-complex-business-models/


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Jon Stewart thinks that it might not be so bad if we go off the fiscal cliff--for a few seconds, we'll feel like we are fly-i-n-g!!!:very_drunk::highly_amused::cool2::drunk:


----------



## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Today Obama said in a speech that all the debt limits are good for is ruining America's credit rating.
*BZZZT* Wrong! It's the debt that is ruining their credit rating. The debt limit is supposed to stop them ruining their credit rating.

When the President's thinking is from Bizarro Land what chance do they have?


----------



## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> When the President's thinking is from Bizarro Land what chance do they have?


As the Australians (used to) say "Buckley's Chance".......which some of us believe is the intent....a Cloward–Piven strategy without the (hoped for) benign end result.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

How are the fiscal cliff negotiations going with only two weeks to go until we take the plunge? I think that if the U.S. politicians do anything at all, it will be as little as possible and then they will do what they do so well--kick the can further down the road as it relates to any significant action. What a bunch of losers!!!:frown::upset::grumpy:


----------



## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Cliff(s) Notes*









http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/12/14/in-the-news-today-1398/


----------



## Jets99 (Aug 26, 2011)

I feel like I'm on a bus full of people chatting happily about all things except the cliff that we are about to be driven over.

The bus driver (my cat) keeps looking back at me with a funny (Mona Lisa) smile but won't tell me what's happening or if he's about to make a turn to safety.

So I'm contemplating selling all my positive postions next week to lock in profits but holding onto anything negative.

This way if the bus and the markets dive, I have preserved my gains and am overweighted in cash and can take advantage of lower entry points.

I'm probably less risk tolerant than most here but anyone else thinking the same?


----------



## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Fasten your seatbelts real tight everybody.
Please store any gold, guns and freeze-dried foods in the compartment provided and keep your hiking boots and rain gear nearby at all times,
we are hearing reports that a small amount of expected turbulence in the ride ahead is about to begin.

Oh and pay no attention to the cat, everything is under control, all our drivers are 100% certified.


----------



## dcaron (Jul 23, 2009)

No problem, no need to be scared about the fiscal cliff, as we'll all be dead, as the end of world is scheduled for Dec 21, 2012 .... ;-)


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

What is ticking a lot of people off is that the end of the world happens on a Friday of all days. Couldn't they at least let us have the weekend and end it on Monday instead? Why do things never seem to work out right?:frown::upset::disgust:

Anyway, I thankful that the end of the world comes before the fiscal cliff as I was starting to worry about the latter before I figured this out!!!

One less thing to worry about!!!


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Ripley's are offering free admission to all of their museums next Saturday.

The only stipulation is that the world must first come to an end on Friday.:encouragement::stupid::highly_amused::wink:


----------



## namelessone (Sep 28, 2012)

The market is not expecting end of world on 21st. Remember, the market is efficient in this case.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Is that the cliff that I see straight ahead and fast approaching? The politicians have very little time left. If we go over, how much will the markets drop?:eek2::eek2::eek2::eek2:


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

After all of the wasted hot air, it looks like the U.S. fiscal cliff talks have broken off and the politicians are going home for an undeserved Christmas with their families.

This could mean that all of our gains for the year could be wiped out by January 2. 

Stay tuned.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

The Republican Party is self destructing.

A lot of stunned "conservatives" stumbling for words on the telly tonight.


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Thank you GOP for helping make my predictions for the year a reality.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

And may I be the first to wish everybody a very Merry Cliffmas!!!


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

On NBC Nightly News tonight they reported that the fiscal cliff impass amounted to "just a mess" and that negotiations have "hit a wall". The two parties can't even get the smallest fixes done let alone the larger issues that need addressing.

In the meantime, President Obama has left for his annual Christmas vacation in Hawaii where he can just forget about everything while the nation come perilously close to going over the cliff.

What a mess!!!


----------



## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

100% cash going into the holidays. Merry Christmas Belguy! *<|:{)} :victorious:


----------



## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Thank you GOP for helping make my predictions for the year a reality.


Keith it looks like you've got the contest won already, any predictions for 2013 ??


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Merry Cliffmas to all and to all a goodnight!!:untroubled::moon::sleeping::tranquillity:


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I think it is time to add this link to the discussion, the race is on and the GOP is the one with the coat stuck on the door.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7hZ9jKrwvo


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Buying opportunity!


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

webber22 said:


> Keith it looks like you've got the contest won already, any predictions for 2013 ??


I am not counting any chickens just yet. But yes we will have a 2013 contest. Guesses will be open from Jan 2nd until Jan 13th. As we enter the new year with such intractable problems in the US government, the year will be tough to predict.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Belguy said:


> Merry Cliffmas to all...


To you as well Mr. Belguy!

There will be a last minute deal, but never say never.

I'm ready for either scenario, how about you?


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

There are always too many things going on in the world and I am just not smart enough to find my way around and through them. And so, that is why I just stick to my asset allocation through all market conditions rather than trying to time the markets which even the experts often get wrong. It ends up being a roller coaster ride but you have to take it these days if you want any chance of growing your portfolio because fixed income investments just won't do it for you.

Weeeeeeeeee indeed!!:eek2::eek2::eek2::eek2:

At the very least, I believe that it is poor optics for Boehner and Obama to leave Washington for their Christmas break at such a critical time. A pox on both of their houses.


----------



## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)




----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Well, Merry Cliffmas to all !


----------



## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Merry Cliftmas! :biggrin:


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Merry Cliffmas to all my friends on CMF. Let's hope that next year will be equally rewarding for investors and speculators.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Disappointing retail sales ahead of the fiscal cliff:

http://news.yahoo.com/retail-sales-creep-higher-weak-holiday-season-early-143749277--finance.html


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

If we do go over the fiscal cliff, which now seems more likely than not, then U.S. unemployment will rise to some 9 per cent in 2013 and the country will enter another recession.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20853688

Those U.S. politicians are one dumb lot!!!:stupid:


----------



## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Buying opportunity.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Jon_Snow said:


> Buying opportunity.


Is there an optimum number of buying opportunities or is it the more the merrier?

All of these buying opportunities don't seem to be making me any richer any faster!!:neglected:


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Belguy said:


> Is there an optimum number of buying opportunities or is it the more the merrier?
> 
> All of these buying opportunities don't seem to be making me any richer any faster!!:neglected:


it is not a CLIFF Belguy.
It is an ABYSS LOL:biggrin::hopelessness:


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

thenegotiator said:


> it is not a CLIFF Belguy.
> It is an ABYSS LOL:biggrin::hopelessness:


Or, is it all just noise to be tuned off?

Are the politicians in the Excited States really THAT stupid?:stupid::stupid:

You don't need to answer that question!


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Belguy said:


> Or, is it all just noise to be tuned off?
> 
> Are the politicians in the Excited States really THAT stupid?:stupid::stupid:
> 
> You don't need to answer that question!



If it is noise i like it :tongue-new:


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Big meeting at the White House planned today.

Hotcakes and sausages.............some coffee.........stretch out and work out the logistics of how they will announce the deal they agreed to months ago?


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The markets are not reacting to the cliff. They are adjusting for the 2 months it will take to get the legislation passed and an increase in the lending ceiling too.

If those things don't get resolved successfully, look for more buying opportunities next year.










This graph illustrates my point. Fear had not jumped due to the clifff.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I hear that it is more like a slope than a cliff but the slope gets steeper and steeper with each passing day.

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!:eek2::eek2::eek2::eek2:


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

kcowan said:


> The markets are not reacting to the cliff. They are adjusting for the 2 months it will take to get the legislation passed and an increase in the lending ceiling too.
> 
> If those things don't get resolved successfully, look for more buying opportunities next year.
> 
> ...


fear is called hedging.
if u fear the mkt will collapse by SPY April puts.
they are still cheap


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

I must say........

NO DEAL

the same theatre as last debate about the debt ceiling when they were downgraded.
it is wall very well planed is it not BELGUY?:hopelessness:


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Look for a 5 to 7 per cent drop in U.S. equity indexes if there is no last minute deal. After the drop, invest in quality U.S. companies with solid balance sheets.

Markets are expected to maintain their volatility in 2013 which is expected to be a challenging year for investors.

What else is new?:crushed::distrust::culpability::disturbed:

Obama is a weak leader when it comes to consensus building. He is more of a delegater. Where have all of the good leaders gone?


----------



## scomac (Aug 22, 2009)

It's tough to build consensus when you want people to agree to things that aren't in their _personal_ best interest.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

One day to go and the TSX has gained 3.02% on the entire YEAR--which it could lose on Monday if the markets tank because of no fiscal cliff agreement.

Ain't life grand!!:crushed::apologetic::culpability::miserable:

Not only that, but there's likely another tough year ahead for the Canadian economy:

http://www.thestar.com/business/art...-not-a-stellar-year-for-canada-economists-say


----------



## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

S&P was up 12%.

Belguy - You should just put all of your money in BCE, get a 5% return and not fret over the daily valuation of the markets. Hell with diversification. LOL. It sounds like you are complaining in your post above about a 3% return. You have to remind yourself sometimes... 'I forgot to mention that long term, buy-and-hold, index investors are likely to experience single digit, possibly even low single digit, portfolio returns for the foreseeable future and so be prepared for that.' You wrote that in another thread. As you stated, there is nothing wrong with a 3% return, slow and steady can win the race. :encouragement:

I am hoping the 'fiscal cliff' (which imo is ridiculously overated by the media) presents a good buying opportunity for all of us with our TFSA money to invest.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Belguy said:


> Look for a 5 to 7 per cent drop in U.S. equity indexes if there is no last minute deal. After the drop, invest in quality U.S. companies with solid balance sheets.
> 
> Markets are expected to maintain their volatility in 2013 which is expected to be a challenging year for investors.
> 
> ...





Belguy said:


> One day to go and the TSX has gained 3.02% on the entire YEAR--which it could lose on Monday if the markets tank because of no fiscal cliff agreement.
> 
> Ain't life grand
> 
> ...


Belguy.
it looks like the spx will retest the 1300 level.
would it not be nice to have another equities sale?
just like boxing day.
even better .
we can have a FIRESALE LOL and retest 1100 area.
in time my friend .
in time.
cheer up though:encouragement:


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

It all comes down to today. (I think)


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Happy fiscal cliff everybody!!

http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/29/investing/stocks-lookahead/index.html?hpt=hp_t1


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Driving along in my automobile

My financial advisor at the wheel

Cruising and playing the radio

With no particular place to go.

Approaching the cliff at the end of this mile

"We're going over", he said with a smile

"My portfolio losses", I remarked with chagrin

"But, I still get paid", he said with a grin.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

sags said:


> Driving along in my automobile
> 
> My financial advisor at the wheel
> 
> ...


:biggrin: ... so damn true ...


----------



## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

Personally, I believe that Obama has zero interest in "The Cliff", or the economy for that matter, it's just one more divisive weapon to be used in ideological class warfare.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

You could be right............the optics are bad for the Republicans.

It is a difficult proposition defending tax cuts for the wealthy, when talking to people who are struggling to pay the rent or eat, even if happened to be good policy .

If economic damage ensues from the lack of a deal..............Republicans are going to end up with the blame.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Nemo2 said:


> Personally, I believe that Obama has zero interest in "The Cliff", or the economy for that matter, it's just one more divisive weapon to be used in ideological class warfare.


your assumption makes no sense to me, why the president of the united states have "zero" interest in seeing his economy take a huge hit for the worse ? ... 
he has his second term ahead and wants to go out having accomplished the task of reigniting the american economy and he wants very badly to get this done ... 

driving off the cliff imperils the economy and he no interest or stake in doing that ... 

asking people who make more, a lot more in some cases to pay extra as part of plan to close a very large hole in the budget isn't class warfare ... 
it's common sense ... a lot of money must be both raised and saved at the same time, there will be pain everywhere

talk to republicans about class warfare, they play it for the upper class all the time

and yeah the gop is going to eat his pile of doo as they well should since they have stonewalled at every opportunity to close a real deal


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

> Belguy - You should just put all of your money in BCE, get a 5% return and not fret over the daily valuation of the markets.


The current yield is 5.3%. They've increased the dividend 8 times since 2008. It's a hard life, being a BCE shareholder.



> "But, I still get paid", he said with a grin.


..


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I think BCE is still a buy. I don't care about random cliffs etc.


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I'm with Eder. That applies to quite a few Canadian dividend paying stocks. Pretty much any big 6 bank, the other telcos and most pipelines.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

No fiscal cliff solution today. Tomorrow may be a chaotic day for the markets.:eek2::eek2::eek2::eek2:

Hang on tight!!!


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Tomorrow's closing price will determine all returns for the entire year. They could not have picked a worse day for the markets.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Which comes first--the ball falling or we all going over the fiscal cliff? In either case, it should make for an exciting time.:eek2::eek2:


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I suspect the outcome (over the cliff, that is my prediction) is already priced into the markets. If they drop a few hundred points, good time to buy in the New Year.


----------



## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

fatcat said:


> your assumption makes no sense to me, why the president of the united states have "zero" interest in seeing his economy take a huge hit for the worse ? ...
> he has his second term ahead and wants to go out having accomplished the task of reigniting the american economy and he wants very badly to get this done ...
> 
> driving off the cliff imperils the economy and he no interest or stake in doing that ...


Your presumption of Obama's goals and intentions obviously differ from mine......._Ingsoc_ is becoming _Amsoc_, ("Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia", etc, etc).......IMO, on his way to fundamentally changing, (some might say 'destroying'), the U.S. as it has been almost since its inception, the first step is to eliminate the opposition...so, regardless of _what_ the GOP offers in the way of permitting an unrepayable debt to escalate, it will never be 'enough' for him and his acolytes, and the media function as his _Ministry of Truth_ to point the ever-accusing fingers.

I do not see Obama as "just another U.S. President with his country's best interests at heart"....far from it.......

The 'upper class' to whom you refer are, (in general), the job creators and the job maintainers......and, (in general), they _should_ be better compensated than 'the masses' who can neither develop businesses nor operate them...............the U.S. problem is a _spending_ problem and ISTM that this particular President has bankruptcy as his goal.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

well.
my lame poor man's opinion was given a few months ago.
one has to be able to see past the smoke screens right?
cliff or no cliff , statements like this one here....

Graham, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he had discussed the effect of the spending cuts on the U.S. military with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta last night and was told that it would mean 800,000 layoff notices at the beginning of the year. The result would be destroying “the finest military in the world at the time we need it the most,” he said. 

are impressively ludicrous.
what they really want is give a shake up in the mkts.
somehow somewhere a solution will arise .
the question is who is going to benefit from it.
It all comes down again to the DEEP POCKETS that run that country.
The USA will be downgraded yet again and that will give a great opportunity for cough cough INVESTORS to load up on prime stocks yet again.
this MKT is extremely short , unless the blind people cannot see it.
I am short one stock only and long 2 stocks.

my bad .... i am also short the shanghai index and long the US dollar.
the rest is cash till they regurgitate and digest their own vomit.
If one is rich , owning high yeld high divvys solid companies is a great thing atm.
i am not rich therefore I trade the volatility.
GLTA.
the cliff is real.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

fatcat said:


> your assumption makes no sense to me, why the president of the united states have "zero" interest in seeing his economy take a huge hit for the worse ? ...
> he has his second term ahead and wants to go out having accomplished the task of reigniting the american economy and he wants very badly to get this done ...
> 
> driving off the cliff imperils the economy and he no interest or stake in doing that ...
> ...


FC
the president of the USA is not a dictator like chavez.
He has no control .
actually he controls deployment of nukes , being the last man to actually give the go ahead.
other than that ..... he controls nothing.
I believe in what u stated though.
he does have intense interest in being the only Afro American president that managed to save the economy.
If he achieves this miraculous event , many many books will be written and he will be remembered throughout history.
cheers


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

You guys are forgetting that the first year of the presidency is meant to let the s*it fly. He wants control of the congress in a few years so making the Republicans look bad is a good idea.


----------



## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...51282802358.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_MIDDLESecond



> "If we're going to raise revenue and if we're going to raise it in any form, then we darn well better cut spending, because spending is the biggest part of this problem," said Erskine Bowles, Bill Clinton's onetime chief of staff, earlier this month. The most important words in American public policy today should be "we darn well better cut spending."
> 
> Unfortunately, most of the conversations about the fiscal cliff miss this point. They center not on how much spending should decrease but how much taxes should increase. That bodes ill for America's economic growth and global competitiveness.
> 
> Instead of debating whose taxes should go up, we should be talking about how to keep everyone's tax rates as low as possible. And we should be talking about the major steps needed to removes obstacles to our long-term economic health and competitiveness, not just small change to avert an immediate crisis.


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The Bush tax cuts were supposed to stimulate the economy out of deficits. During the same term, Bush started 2 expensive unfunded wars and authorized an unfunded seniors' drug plan worth a trillion. How has that worked out? 

The fiscal cliff looks like a good exercise in restraint by comparison. It should stimulate a good debate about which sources of current deficits are still a priority.


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

As of function of GDP, U.S. spends almost 5% GDP on military. I recall they spend about 6% GDP on education. Priorities...

In a few hours, over the cliff they go...

This might be just what the U.S. needs, which will benefit them long-term.


----------



## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

breaking news..
Obama has just made an announcement that there is no deal yet 
It does look like they may be able to sign something yet though.
10 hours to go..


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

The update [with 10 hours to go] was very considerate. 

'He predicted that lawmakers would not come to an agreement until the last possible second'. Oh, what a surprise, NOT!


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

There are dozens of examples of Congress not just waiting for the last minute, but going beyond. I believe most people have realized they actually have several months before there is anything resembling a panic, as every tax change can be backdated to 1 Jan. I think stock markets are reflecting this today.


----------



## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Looks like Belguy is going to have to find a new crisis soon.

*another "Doomsday" thread incoming*


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

It sounds like this deal is good for 2 months until they do it all again.

And there is the debt limit which is hit on Tuesday, but Geithner can put off until February.

The extensive Farm Bill got a temporary extension today, without which the price of milk would have doubled.

Kick this can, that can, and all the cans...............

Lots of reasons companies won't invest, unemployment will continue, and the economy will shrink into recession.

I expect US stock markets will be volatile and choppy for awhile.

I don't believe it will be politically possible for the US to seriously address their budget problems, until after the mid term elections, when I expect the Republicans to be swept out by the voters.

The last 2 years of Obama's presidency is when he can get things done for his legacy.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Jon_Snow said:


> Looks like Belguy is going to have to find a new crisis soon.
> 
> *another "Doomsday" thread incoming*


NO doubt at all! You know he has no difficulty with such themes. :chuncky:


----------



## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Believe I was the first responder to this thread and it's playing just like I thought.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

and........
they decided ..... no vote tonite.
at 3:58 p.m lol


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

sags said:


> The last 2 years of Obama's presidency is when he can get things done for his legacy.


So in the last 2 years, he will be able to accomplish everything that he can't in the other 6 years?
I don't think so.
Obama's legacy is wordy, bombastic speeches comprising of _hope_ and _change_ and _Yes, we can_.
It would appear that words speak louder than actions.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Anyone who thinks for a minute that this mess is more or less settled has another guess coming. The worst thing to happen is that they make a series of mini deals, spread over several weeks or months meaning much prolonged uncertainty for the markets.

If Obama was a stronger President, he might be able to work together with the Republicans and form a consensus deal but he has to call in Biden to do that work for him.

Happy New Year one and all!! I'm going to bed.:sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping:


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> So in the last 2 years, he will be able to accomplish everything that he can't in the other 6 years?
> I don't think so.
> Obama's legacy is wordy, bombastic speeches comprising of _hope_ and _change_ and _Yes, we can_.
> It would appear that words speak louder than actions.


Contingent on my belief the Republicans will lose the balance of power in the Congress in the midterm elections.

If that doesn't happen, there will be another 4 years of gridlock and Obama will have a legacy just as you suggest.

As one pundit noted........Boehner hasn't been able to get anything done with the support of his own party only, because of about 50 rebels who won't agree to anything. He has been forced to rely on Democrat votes.

The Onion has a pretty funny piece on the "no tax pledge" rebels and I think it sums up how a lot of Americans feel.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/congressman-torn-between-meaningless-pledge-to-ant,30539/


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Well it looks like the can kicking has started and we will be pretty much back to where we were before the election and will see if they are able to kick the can again at the end of February, if it gets through congress.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

By contrast, Canadians have CPP and EI contributions go up without much media coverage or fanfare.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/01/01/new-year-cpp-ei-payroll-tax-increases.html?cmp=rss


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Kicking the can down the road (con't):

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/...ate-just-wait-for-the-debt-ceiling-85649.html

The problems are far from resolved!!


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Sounds like Congress may send the bill back to the Senate with some amendments.

It might not be a done deal just yet.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

As I write this, there is a real possibility that the House may not approve the bill as sent to them by the Senate. NBC Nightly News said tonight that the ongoing mess created by the impasse "can't be overstated". The bill that was sent to the House would not cut debt--it would add more debt! If the House does not approve this bill tonight, it would be necessary to start the entire process all over again with the new Congress and this could take WEEKS!! Either this gets approved tonight or the markets are likely to face a significant drop when they re-open tomorrow and potentially weeks more of uncertainty.

Hang on tight!!:eek2::eek2::eek2::eek2:


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Belguy said:


> As I write this, there is a real possibility that the House may not approve the bill as sent to them by the Senate. NBC Nightly News said tonight that the ongoing mess created by the impasse "can't be overstated". The bill that was sent to the House would not cut debt--it would add more debt! If the House does not approve this bill tonight, it would be necessary to start the entire process all over again with the new Congress and this could take WEEKS!! Either this gets approved tonight or the markets are likely to face a significant drop when they re-open tomorrow and potentially weeks more of uncertainty.
> 
> 
> the question is ... are you ready to hang on tight?
> ...


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Is this scene similar to.............Nero fiddled while Rome burned?


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

And we are only dealing with part one of a four act play. The new Congress will have to deal with the debt ceiling (and that should be a ball of laughs), sequestration, and the new budget bill.

I like the part where the fun never ends!!!:highly_amused::tongue-new::beguiled::congratulatory:

http://news.yahoo.com/fiscal-cliff-part-2-coming-february-144019070.html


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

sags said:


> By contrast, Canadians have CPP and EI contributions go up without much media coverage or fanfare.


There is a fundamental difference in the attitude of middle classes in the US, and here in Canada towards taxes (yes I realize neither CPP nor EI is a tax).
The vast majority of Americans are vehemently opposed to tax increases of any sort.
Look at any town, municipality, or state tax and how hard it is to raise taxes of any sort there - whether it is direct income tax or a road toll.

You could say that this is one of the reasons they are in this kind of mess, and you would be (partially) correct.
I believe there is a fundamental contradiction in the US these days between the tax aversion of the middle classes, and the profligacy of their governments.

Middle America is very much a small govt., low tax, laissez faire, society and yet their government (fueled by 30 years of drunken spending) is doing the exact opposite.

As for us Canadians, when we receive news of CPP or EI (or any other tax) going up marginally, we just say _meh_ and switch the channel to the hockey game.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Well 
the republomats are squeezimg me balls lol.
higher we go?
if u cannot fight them might as well join them...... for now:rolleyes2:


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

HaroldCrump said:


> There is a fundamental difference in the attitude of middle classes in the US, and here in Canada towards taxes (yes I realize neither CPP nor EI is a tax).
> The vast majority of Americans are vehemently opposed to tax increases of any sort.
> Look at any town, municipality, or state tax and how hard it is to raise taxes of any sort there - whether it is direct income tax or a road toll.
> 
> ...


I wonder who makes 450k combined here in Canada.
apparently in the states anything below that and u are called a poor man LOL.
i mean middle class.


----------



## Uranium101 (Nov 18, 2011)

What is the next worry on the block? Back to the EU debt problem again perhaps.


----------



## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Whatever it is, Belguy will be on the case. :rolleyes2:


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Uranium101 said:


> What is the next worry on the block? Back to the EU debt problem again perhaps.


not sure :rolleyes2:
any suggestions?
i am covering my short in one of my bets to definitely collect later.
i am open for any ideas.
as long as u give me something to short though.
do u think this whole ordeal is basically priced in or not?

p.s I am long the us dollar since its double bottom.
still holding ur uranium stocks?
did i say that 20 bux on my CCO trader position was money in the bank?
never mind UUU.


i **** u not .
please give me something man.


----------



## Uranium101 (Nov 18, 2011)

Were long cco or short? I didnt understand your post lol.

I got nothing man aside from central banks printing money day and night.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

of coarse u know man 
trader position on CCO bought at 17 bux .
sold at 19.8 .
it went up a little after that.
UUU handpicked yet again at the double bottom and sold right after.
holding 2 core positions on both for a very long term date 3 years + for those.

give me a pick.
i am long USD.
and short the hang seng which i will gladly cover tomorrow and watch it peak by what months's end maybe ?
and then ....
i need a good pick .
any picks from ur end?


i got plenty of cash around

how about this one.
i will go long the Yen ... would ya call me crazy?

about what a month ago i said go long oil .
oil was having a hangover.
but soon i will tell you to short it.
it is crazy man:biggrin::encouragement::hopelessness:


----------



## Uranium101 (Nov 18, 2011)

No man, i got nothing aside from holding all my previous positions.
I have done all the buyingbin late 2011 amd little buying in 2012. I am all tapped out. I even borrowed 2 years worth of my gross salary back in 2011.
But i will gladl tell you my positions.
On the USD side, i got USG, BAC, SWN, and IRBT. On the tsx side, i got MFC, CCO, MUX, SU.
Also add BRK.B to the UsD side.

Note: due to past experiences, my stocks will drop at least 20% right after i mention them to people. Some dropped over 50% right after i bought them. I averaged down of course.
Just a disclaimer.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Uranium.
the problem is not the stocks u pick or the fact that u tell people about them.
in fact i do believe ur stocks will drop no matter what u do.
the other problem is taking profits when u trade stocks.
i am a terrible tech stock trader.
lost money on AMD and almost lost on INtel .
stick with what you know and feel comfortable with.
trading single stocks is not easy .

all I told ya above i will do .
some of it i already did.
the whole baked in euphoria of the cliff aversion will be gone and the mkt will shuffle all of it.
i only get a little scared to short oil but was long till year's end.
why ?
because i believe in what i know.
am i pissed that i lost 5k on AMd ?
no.
i learned something about techs in general.
pick a sector and learn about it if u really want to be a trader.
or stick to Belguy's strategy.
he is not wrong .
he made money last year.
is it for me ?
no.
hold on to ur CCO though.
add on weakness if u plan to hold it for more than 3 years.
GL anyway.


----------



## Uranium101 (Nov 18, 2011)

Thanks for the tips, but I am no trader.
I have held on to those positions for years.
My star performer is USG lol.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

np.
much luck in ur endeavours:encouragement:


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

This bull has legs and is kicking the bears & taking names. Grats to all that are overweight equities. Santa almost always seems to come thru till Jan 15 or so.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Uranium101 said:


> but I am no trader. I have held on to those positions for years.


If you're not a trader for anything at all, then you should not be so overweight on a single stock like CCO, and not just any stock, but one of the most [if not the most] beaten-up commodity to boot. I believe you have a large sum invested in CCO alone, which might take you a long time to just recover [before you make any profit even], and so what you have now is dead money for a while [regardless of the 2% yield]. As I mentioned to you before, there are ways to reduce your capital risk and profit while the stock is recovering; no need to simply average down [even if company is solid] and hence tie even more capital. Also no need to wait years to profit on ANY stock. 

*Think about this:* you make 100% returns on CCO by 2016, but when you consider when you bought & how long you held with $0 returns, will you really be making 100% when the stock doubles for you? 

I'm curious, when did you buy BAC & MFC? What is your ACB on these?


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Eder said:


> Santa almost always seems to come thru till Jan 15 or so.


Sure, because it's my b'day in January.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Now, I am very concerned about the Valentine fiscal cliff in which they have to address the debt ceiling!! I know that this isn't far off as the stores are putting out their Valentine cards! :love_heart::love_heart::love_heart::love_heart:This should prove to be a much greater hurdle than the one that we just survived--at the last minute.

Time to get defensive????

http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2013/01/01/obama-geithner-debt-ceiling-fiscal-cliff/1802173/


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

it will be interesting to see whether, in the light of getting the snot beat out of them in this round, the republicans calm down and come to the table ... i think we will quickly see the anger shift to the democratic side as they fuss about hits to the "safety net"


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The Dow had it's best day today in over a year!! Were you in or out? If you try to time the markets, you inevitably end up missing some of the best trading dates as the markets make most of their biggest gains in just a few trading days per year.

Buy, hold, and prosper.

Often, when you decide to get out, the train has already left the station by the time that you decide to get back in.

Have faith in your target asset allocation and just stay fully invested through all market conditions.


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I was annoyed with the markets today. I was hoping they wouldn't climb so much...wanted to buy. I guess I'll wait for a correction.


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I was happy today-I rebalanced. 
My investment statement policy says I rebalance once per year, or if equities crash 10, 20, 30%
Since my allocation in the past was not desired-I am happy to report our registered accounts now have 15% bonds. (was at 100% equity for a few years)

I also sold 968 shares of XIC near market open. This was originally bought a couple years ago by using a line of credit. I have enough leverage now and I didn't want more debt.

So the new year is starting good.


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I was all in on equities over the last few months, the worse things sounded, the more I spent all my cash. I liquidated my TFSA today and took some solid gains, all in under a month (sold one big loser previously, bought two moderate winners). I wouldn't normally have sold, but I need to money for something else that is important, and what better time to sell than after a solid rally? Haven't sold anything in my RRSP but I'm feeling like a few rebalances are in order soon.

This was an interesting experience for me. My first "crisis" that I've invested during where I actually paid attention. So much noise, it really is hard to fight the urge to sit on cash or sell out when the market was jumping around. The last few days have tasted very sweet indeed.


----------



## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I was out because I didn't want to stress while the market was closed over the holidays. Everybody thinks everything is fixed. It's not. We're printing abandoned baby candlesticks this week and we're going to see a epic humongous flush soon. You were warned. :chuncky:


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Doesn't seem like much at all was fixed... they just gave themselves a little more time to screw around. A flush would good, just gotta find some more money.


----------



## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Belguy said:


> The Dow had it's best day today in over a year!! Were you in or out? If you try to time the markets, you inevitably end up missing some of the best trading dates as the markets make most of their biggest gains in just a few trading days per year.
> 
> Buy, hold, and prosper.
> 
> ...



Belguy.
we will have this discussion till we die probably.
u do not trade the mkts with emotion.
yesterday was an emotional day.
remember this .
we are just starting the year.

i am so short that i look like a dwarf by now.
actually i am long the US dollar till it is overbought.
my target on the US dollar index is 84.
just watch as it unfolds 
GL


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Timers versus non-timers. I wonder who comes out ahead in the long run?:confused2::confused2::confused2::confused2:

So far, I have not been sorry that I adopted the 'buy-and-hold through all market conditions' philosophy although I do admit that it becomes more difficult as you age and find yourself into retirement where you are dependent on your investments to fund a quality retirement.

But, to younger investors who have a long time horizon, I would advise that they just buy and hold for the long term and don't concern yourselves with the shorter term fluctuations in the market.

Buy, hold, and prosper.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Belguy said:


> 1. The Dow had it's best day today in over a year!! *Were you in or out? *
> 2. If you try to *time the markets*, you inevitably end up missing some of the best trading dates as the markets make most of their biggest gains in just a few trading days per year.
> 3. Have faith in your target asset allocation and just *stay fully invested through all market conditions*.


*1.* A day that had pretty much been predicted, no matter the American histrionics. I was in, as always, so didn't miss a thing, as my long-term holdings of high quality companies, always participate in the roller-coaster rides! 

*2.* This is true, however, it's not an issue of necessarily 'timing the markets', but rather adjusting to it accordingly. When action is needed in the many ups & downs of the markets, I may balance/book profits/average down/increase my positions, etc., but I don't exit the markets [there are always exceptions]. 

*3.* Do keep in mind that markets do crash from time to time and can remain volatile for years, and what does higher volatility generally mean for the passive investor, who does not adjust to market conditions? It means higher risk/lower returns. Why? Because the gains you get from rallies are constantly being erased; because you might be holding the wrong stocks, etc. Who do you think was better off, those that never sold, or those that may have sold/booked profits before any market meltdown? Exactly because we can't predict the future, that we sometimes need to do more than mere balancing or staying fully invested. You don't buy stocks to hold forever, you buy them to hold them for a period of time, however short/long periods they may be.

Short-term holdings are in a different category [in my case, most are the same names as the above group], and serve a different & important role, but one which you stubbornly don't seem to want to understand. :rolleyes2: 

Not wanting to miss on the predictable fiscal cliff resolution [no matter how temporary], I participated by making a purchase [oil] on the last day of the year, and booked my quick 5% profit yesterday! So, I participated in yesterday's rally, via my long-term & short-term holdings, and today I'm investing/trading with yesterday's profits! Had the Dow been -300 yesterday, I had cash ready to average down my oil purchase.

GL in 2013 with a potential fresh outlook & perspective; never know, you might move-up from your 4th place finish in kcowan's 2012 contest, to the top 3 next year. :biggrin:

*My Own Advisor:* you mean you were annoyed that you did not position yourself well on Dec.31st?


----------



## Barwelle (Feb 23, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> *My Own Advisor:* you mean you were annoyed that you did not position yourself well on Dec.31st?


I had wanted to add extra to my couch potato for rebalancing in that little dip at the end of Dec, but couldn't because I had no TFSA room left... Now I'm hesitant to do it because it jumped up. I'm not supposed to care that it jumped but I can't help but want to wait till it dives again. I'm going to wait for the next dip... let's hope it's a big one!


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Keep in mind that I do not invest in individual stocks and so, when I am talking about younger investors buying and holding 'forever', I am referring to a simple portfolio of four or five of the lowest fee, broadest-based ETF's.

For me, the problem with individual stocks is that I don't know which ones to buy, when to buy them, how long to hold them, and when to sell them because I am a very simple man.:stupid::stupid::stupid::stupid:


----------



## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Belguy said:


> Keep in mind that I do not invest in individual stocks and so, when I am talking about younger investors buying and holding 'forever', I am referring to a simple portfolio of four or five of the lowest fee, broadest-based ETF's.
> 
> For me, the problem with individual stocks is that I don't know which ones to buy, when to buy them, how long to hold them, and when to sell them because I am a very simple man.:stupid::stupid::stupid::stupid:


GLD or SLV LEAPS is what I would if I was a young investor. IMHO


----------



## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

The Fiscal Cliff is old news already...bring on the debt ceiling again!


----------

