# Gambling portfolios



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I hesitated to post this because I don't want to conflate gambling with investment, but I do have an actual "gambling" portfolio (money that I expect to lose) and there are probably many gamblers among us. So I'll share my portfolio, because posting it publicly forces some accountability, a bit of public embarrassment -- which is good.

First I should clarify that my _investments_ are things I actually expect to make money on. High-risk growth stocks, TSX large caps, index ETFs, gold, etc are all legitimate investments which are meant to preserve and grow my capital.

Gambles, in comparison ... the story for each of these is the same: mostly for entertainment, a complete speculative gamble, but on something which I think which _has a chance_ of being quasi-legitimate, which could attract more investors money. For example I think Bitcoin is a worthless joke, but there's a chance it could become a legitimate asset. Similarly I think Bombardier is likely worthless, but under the right conditions (fingers crossed), might actually regain share value.

My gambles (I expect to lose this money) -

AAL , $600
Bitcoin, $600
BBD.B , $900


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Anyone else interested in sharing their gambles?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Galaxy Digital yesterday

I'd heard of them for awhile but couldn't find enough information. Apparently based in NY but trades on the TSX. With the US seemingly allowing institutions to hold crypto now there's a virtual summit taking place next week to teach companies how to manage the accounting and legalities

Complete gamble for regulatory risk


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## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

I have some crypto coins I should really just dump, but it's more interesting to hang onto them and hope for a pump, then dump.

Bitcoin, I don't really consider a gamble as I expect the value to increase over the long haul (5-10 years).

I also hold some beaten down stocks like BPF.UN and CGX. They weren't considered gambles when I bought them, but it's a gamble that they will survive until things get back to normal.


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

My son gave me some $ for his first trade. PSYK etf. He said his time horizon is 20 years. He researched it a lot and thinks it’s the next big thing in medicine. Even if he loses it all....he now knows a bit about DCA, MERs, efficient frontier, trading commissions. 
he also got his first T4 ever. Took us 5 mins to do his taxes on studiotax. Been a good week of education at home during lockdown.


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

Personally, I did all my gambling about 20-25 years. EVERY tech/mining stock I bought went to zero. My brokerage account has about a dozen stocks that have been delisted. No capitol loss opportunity since I lost all my records and a number of them changed tickers many times. Agh! Also bought Nortel at $5....it can’t go lower, can it? Also bought Bombardier for $5...before the reverse split.

my favourite was USA video...which was rumoured to get in bed with Blockbuster so we could watch movies at home without a DVD.....don’t think the word streaming existed. Was up about $20,000 and held on, all the way down to zero....accumulating got more as it fell.

I’ll stick to blue chips, VBAL and VGRO for now.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Money172375 said:


> Personally, I did all my gambling about 20-25 years. EVERY tech/mining stock I bought went to zero. My brokerage account has about a dozen stocks that have been delisted. No capitol loss opportunity since I lost all my records and a number of them changed tickers many times. Agh! Also bought Nortel at $5....it can’t go lower, can it? Also bought Bombardier for $5...before the reverse split.


Sorry to hear that but I think this is very common. Don't feel bad.

On one hand I feel very stupid about my holdings above, but they really are entertaining. The worst case is that I lose $2,000.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Money172375 said:


> Personally, I did all my gambling about 20-25 years. EVERY tech/mining stock I bought went to zero.


I have a mining stock at zero hah. I was wondering if I can get it off my account but it does remind me I shouldn't gamble


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Gambling

BABA
Insignificant amounts of Dogecoin, Litecoin, Monero. Never did get off my chair to get that ethereum.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrMatt said:


> Never did get off my chair to get that ethereum.


Check out cardano. It's like a 3rd gen and about to launch smart contracts. Lacks apps and developers so the question is whether they migrate or wait for eth2


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

m3s said:


> Check out cardano. It's like a 3rd gen and about to launch smart contracts. Lacks apps and developers so the question is whether they migrate or wait for eth2


Well the question is will it be "better" than eth2?


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## badfish (Dec 17, 2018)

t.eglx, t.flt, cciv, nakd (wsb fun). I like to gamble and occasionally hit. Am somewhat bummed I sold my GME gamble in November when it went from 4 bucks too 6 and I made 50% in two weeks - very good gamble no doubt, but man if I had held it!


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## cliffsecord (Jan 10, 2020)

Recently I started dabbling in some more growth stocks. I’m not sure if they are gambles, but they are much smaller and riskier than my core dividend growth stocks.

XBC. I was made aware of this when it was 70 cents. Watched it, read about it and finally bought it $2. So far so good!!!

Last week I bought XPEL. I personally got my car fully wrapped with it this year and then did more research on it. Lots of cars to wrap as car paint starts to get worse due to environmental concerns.

It’s usually a bad sign when I’m feeling good about my investments!!


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I wonder what is a "reasonable" amount of money to put into very high risk / gambling positions. How do you decide this?

What's strange to me is that when I go to Las Vegas, I gamble with maybe $100 or $200 at most. That's a fun time, sit at the tables, talk to people, get free drinks.

But here, I've got $2100 at risk which is much more.

I deliberately do this gambling in non-registered accounts because I think there's a good chance of capital loss. So then it's not a total waste, I could carry that capital loss.


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## milhouse (Nov 16, 2016)

BCE years ago to try to take advantage of when they were being courted by OTPP and then the deal fell through. Good long term hold though and part of the reason I started building a dividend portfolio.
SNC when they were hit with legal troubles. This turned out to be a winning bet but I didn't know when to get out so it eventually ended up turning into a loser after their financials went to hell.
RIM/BB. I bought it after it was beaten down and drank the koolaid that John Chen would turn the company around. But it was dead money for years and I eventually dumped it. Of course I wish I held it until now. lol

One realization that I've come to terms with is that I'm willing to put only so much on "a bet", say $1000. But the bets I'm making realistically at most might double my money and at best might quadruple my money. If I turn $1000 into $4000, obviously that's a win but it's not life changing nor would it even get me excited. It'd likely have to get into the 25:1 return range before it'd be exciting and I'm not really tuned into spot those opportunities.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrMatt said:


> Well the question is will it be "better" than eth2?


It's lead by an ethereum co-founder and they also worked on eth classic to understand it. Having used both systems cardano is definitely far better. The question is whether the developers/users stay with what they know or migrate to a new system (and this depends how fast/smooth eth2 rolls out vs cardano etc)


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

My worst holding is Suncor but do plan on holding it long term and collect its dividends. But my entire portfolio is doing nicely.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

well I think a better eth might make sense.
If Cardano is a better technology, I might play with it, but remember the market doesn't always choose the best technology. Apparently some people prefer to use Apple and Bing.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrMatt said:


> well I think a better eth might make sense.
> If Cardano is a better technology, I might play with it, but remember the market doesn't always choose the best technology. Apparently some people prefer to use Apple and Bing.


Yes it's a network effect/ecosystem/first mover vs a newer generation scenario. Next few years will decide but likely both will coexist

Apple performs better on benchmarks even with lower specs. It's a no brainer for the average person who value user experience


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

james4beach said:


> I wonder what is a "reasonable" amount of money to put into very high risk / gambling positions. How do you decide this?


One person's gambling might be another's smart investing. So no point in quoting percentages. I have bought many high yield corporate bonds with ratings of 3L or even no rating. Some would have called that gambling, but my thoughts were that those companies would be around until at least the maturity of the bonds. GMAC/Ford Credit come to mind.

When Income Trusts were in vogue, I had about 10-15% in those (actually most in one diversified CEF) IIRC, I bought at about $9.00. Collected double digit distributions for years. At one point CEF went briefly to about $18. Sold a bit at a time on the way down and when it closed shop got my initial $9.00 back. I got a lot of criticism on the forums from more conservative investors, but it was one of my better investments!

On the other hand, I also bought mining stocks. Established miners may be OK, but start ups almost never make the initial investor any money. I have several at $0.00 to prove that.

One miner I still have is the original Shore Gold (SGF) which is actually a diamond project. Now trades as DIAM. I bought at $2.00. It went to about $7.00 (promoted/pumped?). Never sold. Now is at a recent high ($0.22) RioTinto is now involved and investors still hope that they will get something out of it. They do have a huge diamond resource. But economics are suspect. I don't expect to get much out of it. I later bought Rio as well. It has gained and my overall DIAM/RIO "investments" are now about break even. SGF/DIAM no doubt a gamble. Rio not.

A gamble that worked out, was buying Equinox warrants years ago for next to nothing for a proposed copper mine in North-West Zambia. I forget the actual numbers, but when Barrick eventually bought us out, I had made about $80k!
The mine was developed and is reasonably successful, I believe.

My gambling days are over. I did most of that in either my RRSP/RRIF or TFSA. Never in my wife's accounts. Guess whose accounts have the better performance


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

m3s said:


> Yes it's a network effect/ecosystem/first mover vs a newer generation scenario. Next few years will decide but likely both will coexist
> 
> Apple performs better on benchmarks even with lower specs. It's a no brainer for the average person who value user experience


Well that's the eth/cardono question for me.

I agree, it's a no brainer for those who value user experience. I just have the opposite opinion.
FWIW AAPL is one of my larger positions, I just happen to personally hate their products.


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## Plugging Along (Jan 3, 2011)

Most of my portfolio was gambling in my early days. I was really bad at buying On hot tips, and always thought I could just get one big one. so that is why I went with an advisor and still do. The money I have with my advisor Is for our ‘safe retirevent. I was using TSFA for the big gains, and am current sitting at a -$26k loss. So I decided that I would use the TSFA for real investing but the urge is strong to gamble. 

I have money that I specifically put aside for ‘gambles’. I have been presented with opportunities for start ups and private companies that are gambles. These are by with people that I personally know so I am really betting on them. The amounts tend to be higher between $25 to $100k. i wouldn’t be happy if I lose the amount, but it won’t impact my current retirement plans. Really goal to accelerate my retirement plans a lot. 

Then have my totally impulse non registered amount this is money I throw in if I am attempting to make a quick buck. I am not very good at it, so it doesn’t make very much. i started day trading with this in 2008 just before everything bottom out, and have been a little gun shy since. I do occasion stupid dips and make a few hundred here and there.

k was really tempted the other day to buy some game but decided it was too much of a gamble.


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

Things I have that I consider as gambles:

TLT.V - Theralase Technologies. They make lasers for healthcare applications. I bought the stock years ago when I went to physiotherapy at a couple of different places and noticed they both had lasers from these guys. Now it seems their main line of business is trying to develop a treatment for bladder cancer. I bought at .22/share, it doubled almost immediately but I held on, and now, 6 years later, it's .23/share. LOL.

Both of these are part of a new momentum ETF strategy I'm playing with in my play money account - these are currently (as of Jan 25, I rebalance the strategy on the 25th of each month) the top 2 1Y performers on the TSX and hence I have some of each:
HBLK - Blockchain ETF. 
EAGB - Canadian version of ARKG, the ARK genomics ETF.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

agent99 said:


> One person's gambling might be another's smart investing.


Yes, exactly. I may get a bit too philosophical, but what is gambling money? It can be subjective.

If I try to find an objective definition, I'd say that gambling money can have two definitions.

The first definition would be to put money into something to which the odds of success is beyond the gambler's knowledge. He holds his own perception of "beyond his knowledge".

The second definition would be to put money into something that the gambler is aware of low odds of success. He holds his own perception of "low odds of success".

An amateur poker player is a gambler. A professional poker player against amateurs is not a gambler, but if he's against peers then he's a gambler.

If I buy Bitcoin, by my first definition, I'm gambling because I have no knowledge about cryptocurrencies.

If I buy a lottery ticket, by my second definition, I'm gambling because I know my odds of winning are very low but I still buy it.

To my parents, buying stocks would be gambling because it's beyond their knowledge.

To some people, my 100% equity portfolio is a gamble against myself because they would argue that my risk-tolerance is still beyond my own knowledge.

To my parents, since we have absolutely no clue of the future, anything that is not a GIC is gambling to some extent because you can lose your invested capital. But then, I could argue to them that they are losing capital against inflation. They are also losing against the opportunity cost. But as we don't know the opportunity cost beforehand, it's a also a gamble.

In the end, we are all gambling because gambling means not knowing what will be the outcome and no one knows what the future has waiting for us.

That's why we use statistics, to help us forcasting our odds, so that it doesn't feel like a gamble. And our own perception of risk tells us if we believe we're gambling or not.

Let's play the Russian roulette. If you don't kill yourself you get an amount of money depending on the odds of killing yourself. $2B for 1/6. $1B for 1/12. $100M for 1/120. $10M for 1/1,200. $10,000 for 1/1,200,000. Would you play the Russian roulette with a gun of 6 chambers? 12? 120? 1,200? 1,200,000? (That means having 200,00 guns of 6 chambers and only one of them has 1 bullet loaded)


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

My gambling portfolio started at $2300
Today it's $1940 ... so I'm down $360

That's certainly worrying. Hopefully I won't lose it all.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

james4beach said:


> My gambling portfolio started at $2300
> Today it's $1940 ... so I'm down $360
> 
> That's certainly worrying. Hopefully I won't lose it all.


You are only down -16% on very high risk, high volatility positions. Nothing to worry.

I have some stocks moving -8% to +8% on a daily basis. I have some stocks currently down -15% to -30% for so many months. I have a penny stock that was down -20% for months until it popped up to a positive +20% in a matter of 5 days. I had a big position dropping slowly to -40% until I had to sell it (because I needed the money, ha...) and it then soared +50% the following month.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrBlackhill said:


> You are only down -16% on very high risk, high volatility positions. Nothing to worry.
> 
> I have some stocks moving -8% to +8% on a daily basis. I have some stocks currently down -15% to -30% for so many months. I have a penny stock that was down -20% for months until it popped up to a positive +20% in a matter of 5 days. I had a big position dropping slowly to -40% until I had to sell it (because I needed the money, ha...) and it then soared +50% the following month.


Yeah you're right, these things are highly volatile by nature... that's supposed to be the fun of it.

For me, this also helps me "get this out of my system". I think having some wild speculative positions helps me leave my core asset allocation positions alone. If I am ever tempted to "do something" with markets, I can tinker with my gambling portfolio.


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## Tostig (Nov 18, 2020)

I was just looking back on my old records and oh boy, did I have some stocks that can be considered as gambling. My records also indicate that I had used all those capital losses so I must have had some successes for those losses to write off against. Luckily, I limited my investment to between $2000 to $4000 each trade which put a limit on my losses too. But when you do that too many times, those losses really add up.

A couple of memorable ones were:
NYSE Composite index (NYC) - my thinking was from Trading Places in which Billy Ray Valentine described Duke and Duke as a bunch of bookies because they made money regardless if their customers won or lost money on their trades. So regardless if the stock market goes up or down, the stock exchange itself is making money from all the trades that are going on. Funny enough, the financials of the NYSE were not that great. I ended up with a net loss of $1000. Now the NYC symbol is for another company.

The Loewen Group - Everybody has to die sometimes and the funeral business is recession proof. Its stock chart was practically a straight line going up for ten years. And they were acquiring other funeral homes, so they are growing and getting dominant. Wrong. They over-extended themselves and went bankrupt.

Nowadays I still have two that may be considered gambling:

Boeing: Trying to play Warren Buffet's buy on bad news, I bought after the stock plunged on the news of the 747 Max crashes. I made money on one trade, so I tried it again but it kept going down. Then the covid crash occurred and I still had 10 shares. It was recovering recently on some good news on new orders and FCC approvals but went down again.

The other stock I have is from my former employer acquired through the employee stock purchase plan. It crashed during the dot com bubble and never recovered. When I retired I tried some strategies to buy 500 more shares low and sell 1000 shares a bit higher so that the capital losses of 500 of the original shares can be written against the capital gains of the 500 new shares - more importantly my intent was to recover my all money. That doesn't always work out as a lot of the times when I think I'm buying more shares low, it gets lower. So now I still have 1200 of the original shares.


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## wayward__son (Nov 20, 2017)

Ray Dalio: "I believe Bitcoin is one hell of an invention". The paper equivocates, but this is quite a change of posture from the great Ray Dalio. The world needs more hedges to fiat debasement that's for sure.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

wayward__son said:


> Ray Dalio: "I believe Bitcoin is one hell of an invention".


He writes that it's a neat invention. Making money out of nothing. He writes: "there exists the possibility that Bitcoin and its competitors can [become gold-like storeholds of wealth]"

He says that he's very concerned about the security risk. So am I. This is a major problem with crypto currencies. They aren't very safe on the exchange, and key management (in your own possession) is also extremely complex to do correctly and safely.

Finally he says: "That is why to me Bitcoin looks like a long-duration option on a highly unknown future that I could put an amount of money in that I wouldn’t mind losing about 80% of."

So he's saying there is the potential this could become a store of wealth, but he treats it like a speculative option. You *should be ready to lose 80%* of what you put into crypto currencies.


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## wayward__son (Nov 20, 2017)

james4beach said:


> He writes that it's a neat invention. Making money out of nothing. He writes: "there exists the possibility that Bitcoin and its competitors can [become gold-like storeholds of wealth]"
> 
> He says that he's very concerned about the security risk. So am I. This is a major problem with crypto currencies. They aren't very safe on the exchange, and key management (in your own possession) is also extremely complex to do correctly and safely.
> 
> ...


that all seems fair, although he also says our existing monetary system creates money out of nothing (another neat invention).


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## Tostig (Nov 18, 2020)

wayward__son said:


> that all seems fair, although he also says our existing monetary system creates money out of nothing (another neat invention).


Yes and no. Remember the story of the paper clip that turned into a house? As long as people accept all the transactions in between, it's relevant.

A country's sovereign currency has real demand created by the government. You have to pay your taxes in that currency. So regardless of they type of transaction that's going on, sales taxes, property taxes and income taxes etc keep the currency relevant and in a sense, each country's currency is its own commodity so you can trade apples with oranges.

So the day, when governments start accepting bitcoin to pay taxes, it'll be the beginning of the end of our paper currency. The irony is that people who complain that paper money is not really worth anything, back bitcoin, which is also worth nothing real.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Tostig said:


> So the day, when governments start accepting bitcoin to pay taxes, it'll be the beginning of the end of our paper currency. The irony is that people who complain that paper money is not really worth anything, back bitcoin, which is also worth nothing real.


Switzerland has started to accept taxes in crypto FYI

Paper money, crypto, real estate is all worth exactly what somebody will trade you for it. The difference is the supply dictates whether they will increase or decrease in value over time..

Voyager Digital gamble up 30% today. From the founders of e*trade and uber


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

India is passing a law to make all private crypto illegal and will create a central bank digital currency.

I suspect more countries will follow their lead. Government intervention is the greatest risk to crypto.









India might ban private cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and develop a national digital coin


The so-called "Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill" moves to "prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India."




www.cnbc.com


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

There is virtually no commerce in actual bitcoins or other private digital currencies.

Entities that accept it as payment convert it to local fiat currency before they accept it.

As such, there is no risk to the vendor to accept the fiat that comes from the bitcoin. The customer retains all the bitcoin value volatility risk.

It is misleading marketing for promoters to claim a company is accepting bitcoins because they aren't actually doing that.

They are accepting the fiat after the bitcoins have been converted by a third party.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Contracts are impossible when the currency of trade is volatile in value.

Bitcoin values can change by hundreds of dollars in the time it takes to exchange it to the local currency.

If a person borrows 10 bitcoins that are valued at $40,000 each ($400K) and the price of bitcoins fall to $20,000 each ($200K).....do they owe 10 bitcoins worth $200K or the original debt of $400K ?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

sags said:


> India is passing a law to make all private crypto illegal and will create a central bank digital currency.
> 
> I suspect more countries will follow their lead. Government intervention is the greatest risk to crypto.


Meanwhile the USA just approved it. Visa, Paypal, Square etc are rolling out their crypto currency services this year

Except for Janet Yellen who wants to print infinite fiat at will (a stealth tax), plus tax all unrealized gains while lining her pockets with +$800k from Citadel hedge fund that is manipulating Robinhood to restrict retail traders

Canada will need a digital CAD stablecoin that is easy to interact with other crypto currencies to catch up


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

wayward__son said:


> that all seems fair, although he also says our existing monetary system creates money out of nothing (another neat invention).


I think you have to be careful about crypto enthusiasts who spin stories like this into endorsements.

Dalio does say the monetary system prints money, but that does not mean he endorses buying crypto as part of the solution. Dalio has repeatedly said that money in the system (aggregate wealth including central bank printing) ends up going into many assets ... it finds a home in "storeholds of wealth" as he puts it.

This is the fundamental assumption behind Dalio and Bridgewater's All Weather fund, described in this other thread.

Dalio's belief is that money finds a home in various asset classes, generally stocks + bonds + commodities + gold. He's also said in recent years that with aggressive central bank printing, he thinks the main places the money goes are: stocks, commodities, gold


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

james4beach said:


> He's also said in recent years that with aggressive central bank printing, he thinks the main places the money goes are: stocks, commodities, gold


If printed money goes into stocks, commodities and gold.. does that money get burned and removed from circulation or is somebody cashing out the other side of the trade

Printing money increases the circulating supply of money. Issuing shares dilutes the value of each share. Crypto really shows how simple and misunderstood money is


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

You are debating the morality of fiat......printing money, controlling the rules of money, and those with extreme wealth accumulating assets such as gold, silver, stocks, commodities, real estate etc while the working class can't afford food or pay rent.

I am not challenging that. I agree with that sentiment. The "free market" system has been corrupted in many ways.

What I am saying is those who benefit from the situation, including those in positions of power like Janet Yellen are never going to hand their power over.

They will create and pass regulations that protect themselves while telling people they are doing it to protect them.

I am saying........they ain't going to allow it to happen, when all they have to do to stop it is sign a few pieces of paper.

If I thought they wouldn't legislate against them........I would buy bitcoins.


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## R. Austin (May 16, 2020)

Current gambles, all of which turned out fairly decent so far:

BTC -> Bought in 2019/2020, in at $432, now at $1,360.
ETH -> Bought in 2019/2020, in at $348, now at $1,366.
JETS -> Bought in March 2020 (obviously Airlines can't go under, right?), in at $318, now at $474.

Fingers crossed the good luck carries forward.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Dalio doesn't debate the morality. He says, when money exists, it goes into certain places for storage.

The traditional places are real estate, business equity / stocks, bonds, commodities.

It's very possible that crypto coins will become a place that wealth is stored, but it's a wee bit premature to make that assumption after they've only existed for about 5 years. The above list of traditional "wealth storage" places have existed for several hundred years, and in case of commodities, several thousand years.

We live in a society that fetishizes high tech, so that's why people are very quick to assume that crypto coins will stick around as a legit thing. It's just way too early to tell. I'm someone who works in cryptography and there are a lot of potential difficulties with these things. Tech fetishism makes society look with twinkling eyes at anything that's complex and whiz-bang, and it clouds judgement.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

james4beach said:


> Dalio doesn't debate the morality. He says, when money exists, it goes into certain places for storage.


So if I want to store my money in real estate, I can buy a house from you. That money is transferred from me to you. How is that money stored in real estate?

The hedge funds and derivatives markets have manipulated finances and money so much that it also seems to go whiz bang and make eyes twinkle and glaze over

Besides a controlled circulation - DeFi removes the complex whiz-bang financial intermediary hedge waving manipulation that clouds judgement. Code is law.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The money is stored in the house as future value because someone will alwasy buy the house for a place to live or you can rent it out for income.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

@m3s I'm pretty sure that it's been a human custom for at least several thousand years to "preserve wealth" in the form of property or real estate. I'm not really sure what to tell you if you disagree that real estate is a way to store wealth.

Maybe we are talking about different things, but I am referring to this idea: I do some work or provide something of value to someone. They pay me somehow, perhaps in seashells, or goats. I now have more goats than I used to, so I am undeniably wealthier than before.

How do I hold onto that wealth? I might find someone who has a house or farm for sale, and I buy that real estate using my excess goats. I am now goat-poor, but house-rich.

*The money has been stored in the house*. Later I have children. I pass the house down to my children when I die. The house might stay in the family for a long time.

The house / real estate preserves the wealth of the family. And human history has shown that it DOES survive inflation, currency devaluation, changes of government, revolutions, money-printing, etc.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

James I think you are confusing wealth with cash. At least, I think that's the point m3s is trying to make.
Yes, you can store wealth in a house/real estate. But the cash is just a means of purchasing the house. You earn the cash, you give it to the house seller. Now he has the cash. Where does the seller store the cash?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

I was questioning the comment of how money goes into places of storage.

A lot of financial experts seems to have these overly complicated explanations for inflation. In my mind when you increase the circulating supply of money it dilutes its value. I don't see how money can be stored in assets because somebody just receives the cash for those assets to buy something else

Printing USD is great for the US because they get to spend it first. 80% of the world uses USD as a reserve currency and they are the suckers


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## wayward__son (Nov 20, 2017)

Tostig said:


> The irony is that people who complain that paper money is not really worth anything, back bitcoin, which is also worth nothing real.


i understand the sentiment. it's a little strong for me. bitcoin is a proof of work system with a ledger that (in its present state) cannot be re-written (e.g., to double spend) without enormous expenditure of electricity (and capital investment in mining equipment). in that sense, like gold, it is a measure of stored energy that cannot be easily counterfeited. of course bitcoin doesn't survive without a healthy ecosystem of miners and validating nodes, whereas gold, once extracted and refined, is low entropy and duration risk free with no "energy carry" (other than the need for physical storage and security). a house suffers from illiquidity and costs of carry in the form of property taxes, maintenance, etc., and is to some extent tied to the economic fortunes of its location. other stores of value have their own risks and benefits. ultimately there are no refunds on time spent, so it makes sense to me that humans would look for (and try to invent) ways to store human energy spent over time into the future. 

Dalio (unequivocally dismissive of bitcoin in the past) coming out with a detailed, considered paper on the idea of bitcoin as a long duration option on an uncertain future is very interesting to me. options often expire worthless -- nothing wrong with that. one can manage these sorts of risks by position sizing or using barbell strategies.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

I started my stock portfolio in April 2020, so it's still very, very young and I'm currently just playing around and trying things because it's only a 5-figure portfolio.

I like to have different ways to view my portfolio, so I did different categorisations.

One of those categorisations is related to my confidence, expected growth and risk level.

I used 4 labels :

Growth. Stocks I'm pretty confident they will provide some stable growth. I plan to hold these on the long term.
Contrarian. Stocks I bought when beaten down and I was confident they would provide nice growth from their recovery. I plan to hold these until I'm happy with their recovery.
Bet. Stocks that I expect to make a move, but that still haven't proven themselves yet. I'm watching these pretty closely because I may sell them if things turn south.
Momentum. Stocks which were caught in a momentum move. These could be "promoted" to _growth_ at some point or "demoted" to _bet_ if they stop moving for a while.
I have :

53% categorised "growth"
18% categorised "contrarian"
16% categorised "bet"
13% categorised "momentum"


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

wayward__son said:


> Dalio (unequivocally dismissive of bitcoin in the past) coming out with a detailed, considered paper on the idea of bitcoin as a long duration option on an uncertain future is very interesting to me. options often expire worthless -- nothing wrong with that. one can manage these sorts of risks by position sizing or using barbell strategies.


Yup, and thanks for posting Dalio's letter. I agree with Dalio. The coins might turn into a legit asset class. It's just way too early to tell how it will play out. They could turn out to be a flash in the pan, or something that sticks around.

Even if they stick around, how their price moves over time remains to be seen. Just because something is rare and has limited supply, does not mean its price is guaranteed to go up strongly over the long term. Nor is money-printing guaranteed to help it.

Here's the 30 year chart of platinum. This is the kind of thing that could happen to bitcoin... it may still be a thing 30 years from now, but that doesn't necessarily make it a great investment. *Platinum is useful, it's rare, and it's very cool* but over 30 years, the performance is worse than stocks and bonds.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Serious question for everyone. Why shouldn't every portfolio contain some platinum?

I don't know why we'd jump to adding Bitcoin to the portfolio, when platinum is so much better established. As you can see from the chart, it responds powerfully during high inflation and money-printing. It's extremely rare and has very limited supply.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

james4beach said:


> I don't know why we'd jump to adding Bitcoin to the portfolio, when platinum is so much better established. As you can see from the chart, it responds powerfully during high inflation and money-printing. It's extremely rare and has very limited supply.


Personally I'm not interested in precious metals or bitcoin. I like the idea of hedging inflation but there is little utility and I don't like mining something just to bury it somewhere

Something like ethereum or cardano could be a store of value (inflation hedge) commodity (decentralized processing) medium of exchange (fast, cheap, secure). Then DeFi can bank more efficiently without intermediaries and do far more than legacy finance. This will be the major disruption of the coming decade imo and is far more disruptive than recent social media/sharing economy. Of course there will be growing pains and downsides like all tech but I don't miss lining up for the tellers.

Eventually the derivatives market will also move to a blockchain. The derivatives market is quadrillions. Precious metals and bitcoin combined are insignificant by comparison.


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## Retiredguy (Jul 24, 2013)

Tostig said:


> The Loewen Group - Everybody has to die sometimes and the funeral business is recession proof. Its stock chart was practically a straight line going up for ten years. And they were acquiring other funeral homes, so they are growing and getting dominant. Wrong. They over-extended themselves and went bankrupt.


Oh ya Loewen Group! . Just checked my records. Bought 200 @ 11.00 in 1989, shares split 2:1 and I sold in 1996 400 shs @ $40.00 If memory serves it was as high as 65. (A business model similar to BYD - auto group) What killed Loewen was it got sued for 12M down in Memphis and the jury awarded 500M to punish them. Their business was to buy up Ma and Pop funeral businesses and standardize them leaving the Ma and Pop in place to run them. But the Ma & Pop in Memphis figured they got screwed by Loewen and started the suit for as I say about 12M and the jury came back and awarded 500M. (Remember this was in the mid 90's $$$ wise.) 

I did have a stinker during that time - Noma lighting (Think xmas lights)! But still hold RY and TD from those days !


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## wayward__son (Nov 20, 2017)

james4beach said:


> Serious question for everyone. Why shouldn't every portfolio contain some platinum?
> 
> I don't know why we'd jump to adding Bitcoin to the portfolio, when platinum is so much better established. As you can see from the chart, it responds powerfully during high inflation and money-printing. It's extremely rare and has very limited supply.


my man, this is the gambling portfolios thread, not the bedrock elements of every portfolio thread. but, to answer your question seriously -- i think the case against platinum would go something like (1) it does not have the network effect of say gold, (2) it is much harder to work (bad for coinage, hard to develop a network effect as a monetary metal), (3) it has many industrial uses (less value derived from monetary premium) and (4) proof is in the pudding - we can see from its price history that it's probably a trade rather than a long term hold. 

my case for bitcoin as an asymmetric 'gamble' is partly based on the fact that we only have 12 years of history for it (only 11 of which have price history), so we don't know whether its network effect will become like gold's (or, if we really want to stretch our imaginations, US treasuries) or if it will expire worthless. 

what's interesting about the Dalio piece for me is it shows this thing has probably gone beyond beanie babies and tulip bulbs -- a common comparison (and in my opinion lazy but we don't have to debate that) from its last big speculative bubble in 2017-2018. that was i think the third time it crashed 80% and now it has done another round trip and is close to doubling the 2017 high. you don't really hear the tulip chatter much anymore. maybe it'll come back. people don't like the volatility, but do we really think stocks and bonds would be steady-as-she-goes without all the volatility dampening manipulations applied to those markets like circuit breakers and central bank supplied liquidity? anyway that's a sidebar. my point is bitcoin has a wide distribution of possible outcomes but going to zero seems increasingly like it wont be one of them. it's an interesting signpost to me even if it it might seem inconsequential with say 80% loss still on the table.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Gambling update

AAL , $560 [little change]
Bitcoin, $660 [little change]
BBD.B , $820 [little change]
AMC puts, $230

Going short AMC ... I bought some put options on AMC. Currently the stock trades at $8.67 and I bought a March expiration put contract at $0.90. This is insanely risky, and I figure that if AMC stays above $7 that I will lose all this money. However if AMC falls significantly, more than 20% in the coming days, I think this contract should increase significantly.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

james4beach said:


> Going short AMC ... I bought some put options on AMC. Currently the stock trades at $8.67 and I bought a March expiration put contract at $0.90. This is insanely risky, and I figure that if AMC stays above $7 that I will lose all this money. However if AMC falls significantly, more than 20% in the coming days, I think this contract should increase significantly.


And now I'm being reminded about how tricky these options are. AMC is now down 12% from where I opened this position (which is good for me). You'd think my put options would have gained value, but in fact my puts are only up 2%. This is because I paid a huge volatility premium for the options.


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

I invest mostly into ETFs with low MER. I have allocated around 10% of my portfolio to what I would call "Experimental Stocks". These are stocks that I have done a bit of research but not too much. It would be my gambling stocks i would say. Some of these are:

-15 shares of bb.to bought at $6.30/share (I kinda wished i sold them at the recent peak)
-5 shares of QBTC.to
-15 shares of QETH.U
-15 stocks of well.to
-15 stocks of cineplex at around $12/share 
-10 shares of NKLA at $18/share 

I feel like these satisfy my gambling sweet tooth. I am looking for a good penny stock as well but I will see if I can find something.


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## Tostig (Nov 18, 2020)

I guess I'm still gambling because I bought more CGL.C today on a dip. Gold can go both ways.
1) If investors get nervous about all that new deficit in Biden's relief package, the USD will plummet and gold will go up;
or
2) Investors may see Biden's relief package as a calming effect to stabilize the economy and the markets so gold will continue downward.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I decided to hold onto my AMC puts. The stock has been steadily dropping from where I entered, and my puts are steadily gaining value as well. I like the way the trade is playing out so far. I have a price target in mind so I'm hoping to see the stock drop that low.



Tostig said:


> I guess I'm still gambling because I bought more CGL.C today on a dip. Gold can go both ways.


It's not gambling if it's part of your long term asset allocation plan. I bought more precious metals today, part of my 20% allocation target.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

My gambling is for all to see Whoops! PRKR but i bought a bunch at .22 cents and currently up 1022% on one account and down 63% on the other.Overall i have $13000 in it and up $4000 but holy **** a long 8 year ride lol


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

marina628 said:


> My gambling is for all to see Whoops! PRKR but i bought a bunch at .22 cents and currently up 1022% on one account and down 63% on the other.Overall i have $13000 in it and up $4000 but holy **** a long 8 year ride lol


Wow, that thread is from 2013 !


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

james4beach said:


> Going short AMC ... I bought some put options on AMC. Currently the stock trades at $8.67 and I bought a March expiration put contract at $0.90. This is insanely risky, and I figure that if AMC stays above $7 that I will lose all this money. However if AMC falls significantly, more than 20% in the coming days, I think this contract should increase significantly.


I closed my "short". AMC stock was at $6.08 which was roughly my $6 price target, and I sold my puts at $1.14. So overall from start to end, the stock fell 30% and my puts gained 27% which is pretty good over just a couple days. Pretty much played out as I had hoped!


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

I try to keep my fun money down to less than 0.5% of my investment portfolio. My most recent acquisition was FLT (Drone Delivery Canada). It's done pretty well so far!


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

james4beach said:


> Wow, that thread is from 2013 !


Yes I chased it down to the bottom and finally made it back to the top ,i lost so much it did not make sense to even sell.I did not put the full $13000 in once obviously it was over a 7 year span lol


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## birdman (Feb 12, 2013)

I purchased a stock maybe 5 yrs ago and it was medical related but did not work out. The company then sold its assets to a company called Spectral Medical (TSX: EDT) which has had a number of ups and downs but more recently has been on an upward trend. I am not able to explain the products they have and what stage of approval they have but it seems to be finally starting its move upwards. The company seems legit and I'm holding it for the long term. You may wish to take a look at it and form your own conclusions. Good luck.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Synergy said:


> I try to keep my fun money down to less than 0.5% of my investment portfolio. My most recent acquisition was FLT (Drone Delivery Canada). It's done pretty well so far!


The 0.5% sounds like a nice limit for gambling/fun. It's small enough that you really could lose it all without really causing a dent in your portfolio. I was considering 1% but I think it's too high.

Congrats on FLT. That's a pretty ridiculous chart!

Note the dates here ... isn't it amazing how _everything_ started running like crazy around the same time, November/December. The timing of your FLT rally aligns very closely to GameStop, FCEL, and even HMMJ and XEG (of all things!). It really seems that stock investors all went mad around November/December and started buying any ticker they could find.

What an exciting and stupid time this is, in markets.


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## capricorn (Dec 3, 2013)

james4beach said:


> ... It really seems that stock investors all went mad around November/December and started buying any ticker they could find.
> 
> What an exciting and stupid time this is, in markets.


coincides very nicely with Biden win


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## R. Austin (May 16, 2020)

Have some extra USD sitting on my trading account and I've been considering throwing it into a Cannabis related stock. I feel like this is an area that could be interesting to be a part of as cannabis and related products are gradually coming out of the shadows and becoming more mainstream (and legal). 
Just need to determine which company to bet on and then cross my fingers and see how she goes. 🤞


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

An update on my gambles

Bitcoin is $980 ... gained $380
American Airlines is $590 .... lost $10
Bombardier is $750 ... lost $150

Only the Bitcoin slot machine is paying off at the moment. Now if only I could find a waitress to bring me free drinks!


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

Figured I'd post an update too.


Spudd said:


> TLT.V - Theralase Technologies. I bought at .22/share, it doubled almost immediately but I held on, and now, 6 years later, it's .23/share. LOL.
> 
> HBLK - Blockchain ETF.
> EAGB - Canadian version of ARKG, the ARK genomics ETF.


TLT.V - up from .23 a share to .32 a share. 39% increase in a month! Still holding. Honestly don't expect much from this one, but I bought it in my TD account, so it's a $10 commission to sell, which has deterred me from selling for over 6 years.
HBLK - this was worth $17.43/share on Jan 23 when I posted. Today, $25.32. This has been doing amazing. 45% increase if I did my math right. 
EAGB - this was worth $30.16/share on Jan 23. Today, $29.05. Meh. -4%.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Spudd said:


> HBLK


Wow this is quite the chart. I had not heard of HBLK before... it's a tiny ETF (only $41 million in assets) that invests in a collection of crypto coin related stocks. Very interesting.

This might actually be a better way to invest in "crypto coinz are the future" since it's investing in diversified equities in that space. Kind of like how XEG is a better way to invest in O&G than trying to buy individual oil futures.

Very interesting. This is going on my legitimate watch list.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

james4beach said:


> Very interesting. This is going on my legitimate watch list.


I've been using ETFs like this to get some great ideas. A lot of the holdings are typical big tech/finance stocks that happen to be dabbling in blockchain

Also interesting that some of them are US based companies listed on the TSX so they were easy to add to TFSA


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

james4beach said:


> had not heard of HBLK before... it's a tiny ETF (only $41 million in assets) that invests in a collection of crypto coin related stocks.


You can also look at HBGD. I like that one. Both on are my watchlist of potential investments.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrBlackhill said:


> You can also look at HBGD. I like that one. Both on are my watchlist of potential investments.


HBLK is currently over twice the assets under management of HBGD. But yeah, another interesting one. I have to be careful though... I somewhat work in this sector. Maybe that means I should not invest in them at all.

Worth watching and waiting. If crypto coinz really turn out to be the future, then these will become multi-decade trends where companies become very profitable and keep increasing in share price.

This means it's safe to wait and see. If this stuff really is going to be around (and profitable) for the next 50 years, then it hardly matters that you catch the first 5 or even 10 years of it. If there's still another 40 years of business profits to come from this sector, then a diversified portfolio of related equities should have great performance for many decades to come.

Imagine when "computer-related stocks" first appeared in the 1970s. Did it even matter if you were invested in the first decade? Nope, who cares ... even if you got in 10 years later, or even 20 years late, you'd still have excellent returns.

Sometimes it's more important to wait and check that something isn't just a stupid fad or unhinged mania


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

MrBlackhill said:


> You can also look at HBGD. I like that one. Both on are my watchlist of potential investments.


I read some whitepapers on the Blockchain industry and it is forecasting some amazing growth for the next few years ~ 67% cagr. This might be the best growth industry overall.

There are some companies that could do well like Hive Blockchain solutions that are a little pricey now up 1,700% over a year. The ETFs are up ~ 170% in comparison.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Hive has done very well in my TFSA. I chose it over some of the more popular US miners because electricity is cheaper in Canada. I don't like crypto mining or BTC I think more efficient and advanced blockchains should make it irrelevant but it seems to be all that most people can handle for now.

Voyager and Galaxy have also done well. Unfortunate that Galaxy is only 3rd to get an ETF approved instead of first and Voyager has been a victim of its own success by getting bombarded with new signups. The blockchain stocks in the US seem more hyped up so I'm unclear why these 2 are traded on TSX


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

m3s said:


> Hive has done very well in my TFSA. I chose it over some of the more popular US miners because electricity is cheaper in Canada. I don't like crypto mining or BTC I think more efficient and advanced blockchains should make it irrelevant but it seems to be all that most people can handle for now.
> 
> Voyager and Galaxy have also done well. Unfortunate that Galaxy is only 3rd to get an ETF approved instead of first and Voyager has been a victim of its own success by getting bombarded with new signups. The blockchain stocks in the US seem more hyped up so I'm unclear why these 2 are traded on TSX


I sort of avoided this area because it is so complex and is like learning an entire new language but the returns look too good to ignore.

I think Blockchain is a little less risky then Bitcoin(a digital asset) itself as they are sort of the platform providers that allow the trading and mining of all kinds of digital assets. At this stage it looks like there is so much demand there is room for all to prosper so you don't need to discern so much which miners have competitive advantages.

I may add a .5% position in HIVE (it looks to have done the best of the CDN TSXV stocks) or maybe now VYGR once the RSIs are more reasonable. They have had a nice run but it looks like they should do well over the next several years.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

I have no idea how to value VYGR but it's my favorite gamble right now

CEO is on youtube often (also was the e*trade CEO) plus they got talent from Uber. The app is well done (I have US app store and bank) and it's coming to Canada and Europe. They broker crypto from many other exchanges and take a spread. They give far better interest than the banks and they have a loyalty system coming

Also they should make bank on the FOMO in and the FOMO out


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Jimmy said:


> I read some whitepapers on the Blockchain industry and it is forecasting some amazing growth for the next few years ~ 67% cagr. This might be the best growth industry overall.


People trying to push or endorse industries will always have forecasts like that


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

There is a euphoria in everything. We seem to be getting close to the crash.

What happens after that is anyone's guess.


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

james4beach said:


> People trying to push or endorse industries will always have forecasts like that


They were just citing industry projections. Market research groups have similar estimates.





__





Blockchain Technology Market Size Report, 2022-2030


The global blockchain technology market size was valued at USD 5.92 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 85.9% from 2022 to 2030




www.grandviewresearch.com


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year? So many are adamant to avoid O&G because it is volatile, but do you really not see how buying BTE at $50 circa 2014 is not the same as buying $0.27 to $0.60 last year. Or PEY $$35 vs $1-$2 last year. Or OVV $100 vs $3 to $5, or even SU $60 vs $15. People who will "invest" in Bitcoin at tens of thousands of dollars won't invest in the base of the economic pyramid at 75 to 98% discount from 2014 prices? Human nature is fascinating.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

hboy54 said:


> Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year? So many are adamant to avoid O&G because it is volatile, but do you really not see how buying BTE at $50 circa 2014 is not the same as buying $0.27 to $0.60 last year. Or PEY $$35 vs $1-$2 last year. Or OVV $100 vs $3 to $5, or even SU $60 vs $15. People who will "invest" in Bitcoin at tens of thousands of dollars won't invest in the base of the economic pyramid at 75 to 98% discount from 2014 prices? Human nature is fascinating.


I did exactly this. I'm no fan of O&G related stocks, but I bought OVV and SCL. More than tripled my money on those. Now 20% of my portfolio.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> Hive has done very well in my TFSA. I chose it over some of the more popular US miners because electricity is cheaper in Canada. I don't like crypto mining or BTC I think more efficient and advanced blockchains should make it irrelevant but it seems to be all that most people can handle for now.
> 
> Voyager and Galaxy have also done well. Unfortunate that Galaxy is only 3rd to get an ETF approved instead of first and Voyager has been a victim of its own success by getting bombarded with new signups. The blockchain stocks in the US seem more hyped up so I'm unclear why these 2 are traded on TSX


I recall looking at HUT and HIVE back in April 2020. I wanted to take a position in one of them or even both of them, but I wasn't confident enough because I'm a beginner. Certainly my biggest opportunity losses. They've 10x to 20x. These kinds of gains are game-changers and potentially life-changers.


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

hboy54 said:


> Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year? So many are adamant to avoid O&G because it is volatile, but do you really not see how buying BTE at $50 circa 2014 is not the same as buying $0.27 to $0.60 last year. Or PEY $$35 vs $1-$2 last year. Or OVV $100 vs $3 to $5, or even SU $60 vs $15. People who will "invest" in Bitcoin at tens of thousands of dollars won't invest in the base of the economic pyramid at 75 to 98% discount from 2014 prices? Human nature is fascinating.


Did this as well. I have positions in SU, ERF, ENB, MEG, and TVE. I don't consider these gambling, though. But they are doing well.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> I recall looking at HUT and HIVE back in April 2020. I wanted to take a position in one of them or even both of them, but I wasn't confident enough because I'm a beginner. Certainly my biggest opportunity losses. They've 10x to 20x. These kinds of gains are game-changers and potentially life-changers.


Don't sweat it, I've missed out on a LOT of huge gains, I considered the Google IPO, and it took me years to understand Amazon, or realize the MSFT reorientation.
Better to miss out on some gains, than lose it all in a bad investment.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

hboy54 said:


> Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year?


That's very speculative trading as well. Trying to catch a falling knife, etc.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

james4beach said:


> That's very speculative trading as well. Trying to catch a falling knife, etc.


I wouldn't call it speculative like buying in to bitcoin dealers that make $5mil revenue a year, lose twice that much, but somehow have a market cap of 3.5Bil.
Anyone with an understanding of the energy market and the capital required to maintain production, the lead time it takes said capital to have an effect, etc, could predict what has happened with the O&G stock prices.


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

nobleea said:


> Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year? So many are adamant to avoid O&G because it is volatile, but do you really not see how buying BTE at $50 circa 2014 is not the same as buying $0.27 to $0.60 last year. Or PEY $$35 vs $1-$2 last year. Or OVV $100 vs $3 to $5, or even SU $60 vs $15. People who will "invest" in Bitcoin at tens of thousands of dollars won't invest in the base of the economic pyramid at 75 to 98% discount from 2014 prices? Human nature is fascinating.


This is an interesting point you bring up. Now I am no investing pro but I did want to ask something regarding this. There is a huge move to go toward green energy. Oil and gas are not considered that. I do know that the demand of oil and gas will not go away any time soon but would it be a bad idea to hold oil and gas companies for the long term? I ask because eventually the oil and gas companies will get pinched by this. I am not sure if any (O&G) energy companies have started getting into renewable energy but wont these companies eventually see a further stock decline in the future?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

nobleea said:


> Anyone with an understanding of the energy market and the capital required to maintain production, the lead time it takes said capital to have an effect, etc, could predict what has happened with the O&G stock prices.


Are you saying it was obvious, back in March/April, that March was the low in energy stocks? And it was obvious that they would go up?


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Are you saying it was obvious, back in March/April, that March was the low in energy stocks? And it was obvious that they would go up?


Pretty much, and I invested as such. And everyone who's worked in the industry on here also did the same. It's a pretty predictable pattern.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

nobleea said:


> Pretty much, and I invested as such. And everyone who's worked in the industry on here also did the same. It's a pretty predictable pattern.


If it's obvious, kind of makes you wonder why investors would be willing to sell off so broadly. Most days in March had over 60 million shares of XLE traded, that's about $2 billion traded per day. Maybe around $30 billion in trades made through March on XLE.

That's not small money. That's big stuff, traded by institutions and hedge funds, and I'm sure there were many who have expertise in the field.

Many people placing those trades work in O&G too. There are also hedge funds with industry insiders working at them.

I do not think it was as "obvious" as you seem to think. And if you do think it was obvious/assured, then it's even more dangerous because you may have been oblivious to other downside risks.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Are you saying it was obvious, back in March/April, that March was the low in energy stocks? And it was obvious that they would go up?


Wasn't just energy stocks, many sectors dropped. The only questions at the time were, where is the bottom and how long for the recovery. Also, in order to make significant gains one doesn't need the exact bottom.


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

james4beach said:


> That's very speculative trading as well. Trying to catch a falling knife, etc.


I see it as the highest expected value situation of my 40 years in investing. I get the falling knife though. I'll likely have more losing transactions than winners until I am up over 100% or 200%. If I get there of course. Broke through break even 2 or 3 weeks ago. Even BTE is moving up, my last position in a loss on ACB.


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

The oil stocks can be decent investments at times due to recessions when demand and prices are at low pts and you can make some $ on the cyclical rally. Not great return investments for the long run IMO but ok if you just want them for income. I just bought some Altagas which was a good value and Methanex last year that has done really well. Hopefully good for a 1 or maybe 2 yr hold.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

james4beach said:


> If it's obvious, kind of makes you wonder why investors would be willing to sell off so broadly ... That's big stuff, traded by institutions and hedge funds, and I'm sure there were many who have expertise in the field ... I do not think it was as "obvious" as you seem to think. And if you do think it was obvious/assured, then it's even more dangerous because you may have been oblivious to other downside risks.


I guess then you see buying XIU was gambling as well. 

It's trading volumes for March 2020 were anywhere from double to ten folder higher ... with most days being 5x or higher.
Clearly the sell off more than just O&G ... making the current trading prices less likely to be about the company/future prospects. I suspect it also made it more likely that when sentiment reversed, most boats would rise with the tide.

I guess you haven't heard the saying "buy when there is blood in the streets"?


As for FIs, hedge funds and pension funds - they have restrictions/commitments that us DIY types don't have so I'm not sure their actions are solely about what their analysis says.


Cheers


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

hboy54 said:


> ... I see it as the highest expected value situation of my 40 years in investing. I get the falling knife though ...


I'm only at thirty years so I'd say second best behind the 2009 crisis. 


YMMV though.


Cheers


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Eclectic12 said:


> I guess then you see buying XIU was gambling as well.
> 
> It's trading volumes for March 2020 were anywhere from double to ten folder higher ... with most days being 5x or higher.
> Clearly the sell off more than just O&G ... making the current trading prices less likely to be about the company/future prospects. I suspect it also made it more likely that when sentiment reversed, most boats would rise with the tide.
> ...


I'm not following your logic. With XEG and XLE, I pointed out that it could not have been obvious that it was a bottom. Some people in this thread say that it when it was down so much, that it was "obvious" that it was a buying opportunity.

I'm saying that *one can never know there's a bottom*. Similarly with XIU or the S&P 500, when it was down heavily last March or April, it was not obvious that it was a bottom. The market could have kept falling for another 2 years, maybe even another 5 years.

If someone said, whoa XIU is down a ton, I'm going to deploy some cash because I _think or feel _it's the bottom ... that's gambling as well. Maybe that's your point -- in which case I agree.

People who speculate by trying to catch bottoms are gambling/speculating. Looking at the prices and saying to yourself "I think it's fallen about as much as it can, I'm going to buy now" is gambling/speculating. It's market timing.

In comparison, people who trade systematically, which might involve rebalancing or dollar cost averaging, are not gambling.


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

Spudd said:


> Figured I'd post an update too.
> 
> 
> TLT.V - up from .23 a share to .32 a share. 39% increase in a month! Still holding. Honestly don't expect much from this one, but I bought it in my TD account, so it's a $10 commission to sell, which has deterred me from selling for over 6 years.
> ...


Now a few months later. 

TLT.V - down from .32 to .27/share since my Feb update. This basically just acts like this all the time. 
HBLK - still around the same level as back in Feb. Was 25.32 when I posted last time, 25.28 now. Still holding. My CAGR on this is 144% even though it hasn't moved since Feb.
EAGB - sold this when it triggered my stop on March 5 for 22.42/share. Overall realized gain of 4.8% in 5 months but way down since my initial posting in January.
HBGD - my replacement for EAGB. Bought March 25 for 73.25/share. Currently 85.28/share for CAGR of 374%.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

While everyone is talking about the Coinbase IPO this week.. Voyager Digital is quietly exploding on the Canadian exchange.

Voyager is climbing up the US app store charts and will soon be available in Canada and Europe. It's a better platform than Coinbase, has more assets and better yields.

It's probably overvalued but I'm holding at least while BTC is being squeezed


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## Fain (Oct 11, 2009)

m3s said:


> While everyone is talking about the Coinbase IPO this week.. Voyager Digital is quietly exploding on the Canadian exchange.
> 
> Voyager is climbing up the US app store charts and will soon be available in Canada and Europe. It's a better platform than Coinbase, has more assets and better yields.
> 
> It's probably overvalued but I'm holding at least while BTC is being squeezed


I've been hearing good things about Voyager but it ran a lot. 

here are some good picks I've went into since January 1st. So far up almost 200k on them between the common shares and warrants. LIS and XTM were the biggest winners.

EDDY.V
MN.V
LIS.V
FE.CSE
CBDX.CSE
SNOW.CSE
PAID.CSE
WWT.V
Graphano Sub Receipts


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

james4beach said:


> I'm saying that *one can never know there's a bottom*. Similarly with XIU or the S&P 500, when it was down heavily last March or April, it was not obvious that it was a bottom. The market could have kept falling for another 2 years, maybe even another 5 years.
> 
> If someone said, whoa XIU is down a ton, I'm going to deploy some cash because I _think or feel _it's the bottom ... that's gambling as well.


I bet you are the kind of guy going shopping and seeing some clothes discounted -30% and tell yourself "nah, not a good time to buy clothes, maybe they'll be discounted by -50% in a few months".

I don't see how buying XIU when the TSX was at 12,000 in March 2020 was a gamble. You were buying at a price lower than all of those who bought XIU during the past 5 years.

I think you put too much emphasis on buying the exact bottom as opposed to buying the market at a discount.


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## Fain (Oct 11, 2009)

MrBlackhill said:


> I bet you are the kind of guy going shopping and seeing some clothes discounted -30% and tell yourself "nah, not a good time to buy clothes, maybe they'll be discounted by -50% in a few months".
> 
> I don't see how buying XIU when the TSX was at 12,000 in March 2020 was a gamble. You were buying at a price lower than all of those who bought XIU during the past 5 years.
> 
> I think you put too much emphasis on buying the exact bottom as opposed to buying the market at a discount.


If you look at underlying companies that make up TSX and believed that 1. Government would help and print money 2. That the world economy would recover .. then buying XIU was a good calculated bet. Basically buying the same XIU but on a firesale.


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## Fain (Oct 11, 2009)

m3s said:


> While everyone is talking about the Coinbase IPO this week.. Voyager Digital is quietly exploding on the Canadian exchange.
> 
> Voyager is climbing up the US app store charts and will soon be available in Canada and Europe. It's a better platform than Coinbase, has more assets and better yields.
> 
> It's probably overvalued but I'm holding at least while BTC is being squeezed


I'm trying to get Kraken shares ahead of the IPO. Their business has been on fire as well. 2022 is expected listing date for them.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrBlackhill said:


> I don't see how buying XIU when the TSX was at 12,000 in March 2020 was a gamble. You were buying at a price lower than all of those who bought XIU during the past 5 years.


You must be buying bonds and gold right now, then?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

james4beach said:


> You must be buying bonds and gold right now, then?


No, because it's not part of my strategy, but you are because it's part of your asset class allocation, which is fine. Therefore, your strategy makes you buy at discount, so why buying XIU during the crash was gambling?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrBlackhill said:


> No, because it's not part of my strategy, but you are because it's part of your asset class allocation, which is fine. Therefore, your strategy makes you buy at discount, so why buying XIU during the crash was gambling?


OK, good point. IF the portfolio had an XIU holding as part of the strategy, then by all means, buying more (at any time) is not a problem.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I've got $4,000 USD in a sh!tcoin.
I own over 1% of the entire float.
I expect it to make me filthy rich or I lose $4k USD.

Just so everyone is clear, let me please add:

I hate crypto.
But I do exploit it.


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## Kilbarry20 (Aug 19, 2020)

Presently, I have taken shots on 2 stocks.

1) ARU @ about $4200, purchase price.
2) ZEN @ about $3400, purchase price.

I feel both will blow. ARU is still under water, to the tune of $-1700.
ZEN is finally in the black today. 

Feel free to read up on both their stories. ZEN is the hottest, involved in a 100% Covid protection mask, about to be approved by HC, plus several other widespread applications from Aerospace to lighter concrete.
ARU is searching for the Lost Inca Gold Mine- a bit Oak Island type tale.


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## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

james4beach said:


> I hesitated to post this because I don't want to conflate gambling with investment, but I do have an actual "gambling" portfolio (money that I expect to lose) and there are probably many gamblers among us. So I'll share my portfolio, because posting it publicly forces some accountability, a bit of public embarrassment -- which is good.


The old adage on wall street "the public is not allowed to make money in the market" goes against the banks telling us to "invest" in their mutual funds. The banks never say gamble with our mutual funds which is more accurate wording. It takes a lot of money from the retail gambler to keep the market well oiled. The public needs to lose to cover the cost of the yachts for the big boys

If you have a method that gives you an edge & you follow it your speculating in the market.
If you have no method that gives you an edge or you fail to follow your method your gambling

Money made gambling in the market is not the same as making money speculating in the market.

A good trade is when you make or lose money in the market & you followed your method which gave you an edge 

A bad trade is when you lost money in the market by not following your method 

A real bad trade is when you made money in the market & you used no method that gave you an edge.


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