# Goldcorp (G)



## KaeJS

Was surprised there was no previous thread.

I'm thinking about buying some G tomorrow (100 shares).

Thoughts?


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Was surprised there was no previous thread.
> 
> I'm thinking about buying some G tomorrow (100 shares).
> 
> Thoughts?


Looks like it's not bad buy just above $45


----------



## cannadian

Looks like the stock is at a relative minimum and will be back to around ~55 in the month. I don't know TA though, I'm just a maths/patterns guy looking at a chart haha.

But overall I'm pretty bullish on gold long-term so it should be a good bet, especially if you can hold onto it.

If Bernanke decides to print more money gold/silver will go through the roof imo.


----------



## gibor365

cannadian said:


> Looks like the stock is at a relative minimum and will be back to around ~55 in the month. I don't know TA though, I'm just a maths/patterns guy looking at a chart haha.
> 
> But overall I'm pretty bullish on gold long-term so it should be a good bet, especially if you can hold onto it.
> 
> If Bernanke decides to print more money gold/silver will go through the roof imo.


not sure about 55 in a month, but imho it will come back above 50 during Q1, practically whole 2011 it danced between 44-53


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Bought in at $45.39 this morning. See if I can make a few shekels on this stock again.


----------



## gibor365

Ihatetaxes said:


> Bought in at $45.39 this morning. See if I can make a few shekels on this stock again.


I have my limit buy a little lower, maybe gets executed today


----------



## gibor365

Good article about Goldcorp

http://seekingalpha.com/article/320178-2-gold-mining-stocks-that-are-not-appreciated-by-the-market


----------



## KaeJS

Thanks for the article, gibor.

I ended up buying 100 at $45.45 this morning.

Will buy another 100 if it ever hits $43.


----------



## Betzy

I like G, also own ELD they both are great traders and I have no worries for long term either.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Thanks for the article, gibor.
> 
> I ended up buying 100 at $45.45 this morning.
> 
> Will buy another 100 if it ever hits $43.


I bought 50 at $45.29 in the morning, was going to buy another 50 when it went down below 44.70 (I pay only once fees if buy the same day), but got stuck in the meeting from 3 to 4:30 ....
so if it goes down more, will buy another 50
Last year I sold G at about 52.5 ...hope I'll reach this price until end of Q1...
Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm more optimistic on G than on for example ECA... and for dividends I bought EGL.UN with 10.5% yield


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Taking a nice run up today after diving after I bought in yesterday!


----------



## PMREdmonton

This is a classic trading stock right now.

Buy at 45 and hold until it hits 55. Then sell it as soon as it shows weakness.

It is a better play as a trade then Barrick is as a hold.

Precious metal mining stocks are not buy and holds.


----------



## cannadian

One of my positions seems to be peaking right now, I think I might sell it tomorrow and pick up some goldcorp!

The 1 year chart looks amazing right now, EVERY time it has hit the $45 range it shoots back up within a few months to the $48-$55 range. Every time. 

If it's not up too much tomorrow I'll hop on for probably 75 shares.


----------



## gibor365

cannadian said:


> One of my positions seems to be peaking right now, I think I might sell it tomorrow and pick up some goldcorp!
> 
> The 1 year chart looks amazing right now, EVERY time it has hit the $45 range it shoots back up within a few months to the $48-$55 range. Every time.
> 
> If it's not up too much tomorrow I'll hop on for probably 75 shares.


This is exactly why I bought some at low 45's...


----------



## cannadian

gibor said:


> This is exactly why I bought some at low 45's...


I ended up picking some up around 45.50 yesterday.

I'm expecting a general market correction soon though so I put in a stop at 43.43 to protect me in case G doesn't respond well to the markets falling..

Hopefully it can hold off the correction and march back to 55


----------



## KaeJS

Anyone looking to average down their prices or pick some up?

Under $45 again.

cannadian, I don't know if it would be wise to set a limit at $43.43. That's probably where you will find a lot of support if it makes it there. Bad place to sell, IMO.


----------



## cannadian

KaeJS said:


> Anyone looking to average down their prices or pick some up?
> 
> Under $45 again.
> 
> cannadian, I don't know if it would be wise to set a limit at $43.43. That's probably where you will find a lot of support if it makes it there. Bad place to sell, IMO.


Actually good call, there seems to be lots of support around $43.50, I'm new to trading so I figured 10 cents lower would be a decent place, but after thinking about it some more I'll lower it a little to avoid selling early.

I'll put the stop at $43 instead - my downside is now ~$250 with upside of $500-$800.

Here's a crappy chart I drew showing the channel oscillation as I see it 
http://ratracefreedom.net/?p=437#more-437

Rumours have been flying pretty recently that China and India are going to start buying Iranian oil in gold now to circumvent the US sanctions. That + possible monetary easing out of China could help pop gold prices/Goldcorp.


----------



## KaeJS

cannadian said:


> I'll put the stop at $43 instead - my downside is now ~$250 with upside of $500-$800.


I'm not sure I would set a stop loss there at all, though.

I would either make a tighter stop loss (ie, closer to your original buy price) or not include a stop at all.

I almost never use stop losses. The fact is that if the stock price reaches $43, it is probably more attractive, and thus more likely to increase than at say, $44.50.

If you were to have placed your stop at $44.50, this would minimize your risk even further, but it allows for less volatility. It depends on how you feel about it. See, I wouldn't use a stop loss because I don't see Goldcorp going below $42. And if I don't see Goldcorp going below $42, I wouldn't place a stop loss at $43, I would want to buy more at $43.

It's all up to you, But I think $2 of downside is a big range for a stop loss on this stock. Essentially, you could be throwing a couple hundred away, right? Nobody wants that. There is nothing wrong with the company. It is not all that speculative, so there is not much to worry about in terms of downside risk. A lot of the downside has already come, if you ask me.



zylon said:


> For anyone trading anything to do with gold,
> Stewart Thomson is a must read every Tuesday morning.


Not sure what you're trying to say, zylon. Maybe I missed the point, but what does this have to do with Goldcorp, per se?

Goldcorp does not follow the price of gold at all times.


----------



## zylon

If you don't get it ... you don't get it.

Never mind ... post deleted.


----------



## KaeJS

zylon said:


> If you don't get it ... you don't get it.


Well, that's informative.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Anyone looking to average down their prices or pick some up?
> 
> Under $45 again.
> 
> cannadian, I don't know if it would be wise to set a limit at $43.43. That's probably where you will find a lot of support if it makes it there. Bad place to sell, IMO.


I don't sell ... I probably will buy more if it drops below $44 ..G has a huge support ar middle 43's level.... Last year I bought G at much higher price and was sharply down, but was holding and sold with profit in low 52's...


----------



## cannadian

KaeJS said:


> I'm not sure I would set a stop loss there at all, though.
> 
> I would either make a tighter stop loss (ie, closer to your original buy price) or not include a stop at all.
> 
> I almost never use stop losses. The fact is that if the stock price reaches $43, it is probably more attractive, and thus more likely to increase than at say, $44.50.
> 
> If you were to have placed your stop at $44.50, this would minimize your risk even further, but it allows for less volatility. It depends on how you feel about it. See, I wouldn't use a stop loss because I don't see Goldcorp going below $42. And if I don't see Goldcorp going below $42, I wouldn't place a stop loss at $43, I would want to buy more at $43.
> 
> It's all up to you, But I think $2 of downside is a big range for a stop loss on this stock. Essentially, you could be throwing a couple hundred away, right? Nobody wants that. There is nothing wrong with the company. It is not all that speculative, so there is not much to worry about in terms of downside risk. A lot of the downside has already come, if you ask me.
> 
> 
> 
> Not sure what you're trying to say, zylon. Maybe I missed the point, but what does this have to do with Goldcorp, per se?
> 
> Goldcorp does not follow the price of gold at all times.


The support level isn't at $44.50 though, it's around $43.50. If the typical bounce back from this range is going to occur it should occur before this point. Therefore I feel it's the most strategic area to place my stop-loss (slightly below support).

To be honest, I don't know all that much about mining companies - it's not in my circle of competence. But I think the fundamentals of gold are quite strong, I think the metal's price is bottoming out, and that chart shows that Goldcorp has been oscillating between $45 and $55 all year long, like clock-work. That and it has incredibly strong support at around $43.50.

This makes me think that the odds of Goldcorp going up from the $43.50 range exceed the odds of it going down. And if that's the case then my downside risk is only ~$250 but my likely upside is around $500-$900.

So not only do I believe the odds are on my side that Goldcorp will increase in price from around this level, but the upside is also far greater than the downside.

I'm really tired at the moment so hopefully that makes sense, I basically think it's a statistically intelligent swing trade right now.

Only thing I'm not so sure about is how it will react if the overall market corrects.


----------



## KaeJS

cannadian, go check the "What are you buying" thread.

I made five profitable trades on Goldcorp today.

I understand what you are trying to say in regards to your downside risk versus your upside potential, but the problem is: That's a fact.

That fact isn't going to change. That's the way the stock moves/reacts. I just think by placing a stop loss at ~$43, you are shooting yourself in the foot. If you bought at $45, why wouldn't you buy at $43? If you're going to buy at $43, why would you stop loss $43?

If you were concerned about losing funds, you should have put a stop loss maybe $0.50 cents away from your original buy, not $2+.

What happens if Goldcorp dips to $42.85 and then shoots to $49? You will be pissed.  

See the image below:


----------



## Betzy

KaeJS Nice work, I guess you have only on set of commissions for all those trades? Other wise the profits are eaten up with comm


----------



## Ihatetaxes

KaeJS said:


> cannadian, go check the "What are you buying" thread.
> 
> I made five profitable trades on Goldcorp today.
> 
> I understand what you are trying to say in regards to your downside risk versus your upside potential, but the problem is: That's a fact.
> 
> That fact isn't going to change. That's the way the stock moves/reacts. I just think by placing a stop loss at ~$43, you are shooting yourself in the foot. If you bought at $45, why wouldn't you buy at $43? If you're going to buy at $43, why would you stop loss $43?
> 
> If you were concerned about losing funds, you should have put a stop loss maybe $0.50 cents away from your original buy, not $2+.
> 
> What happens if Goldcorp dips to $42.85 and then shoots to $49? You will be pissed.
> 
> See the image below:


If you had of just bought and held those 300 shares until today you could have sold for a $600 profit! Stock is headed up up up today.


----------



## KaeJS

Ihatetaxes said:


> If you had of just bought and held those 300 shares until today you could have sold for a $600 profit! Stock is headed up up up today.


Of course, but who knew it was going to rally as much as it did?  

I still have my original 100 shares at $45.45

Just think of the poor suckers who sold their G shares to me this morning for *$44.27*!!


----------



## Ihatetaxes

KaeJS said:


> Of course, but who knew it was going to rally as much as it did?
> 
> I still have my original 100 shares at $45.45
> 
> Just think of the poor suckers who sold their G shares to me this morning for *$44.27*!!


LOL. True enough!


----------



## cannadian

KaeJS said:


> cannadian, go check the "What are you buying" thread.
> 
> I made five profitable trades on Goldcorp today.
> 
> I understand what you are trying to say in regards to your downside risk versus your upside potential, but the problem is: That's a fact.
> 
> That fact isn't going to change. That's the way the stock moves/reacts. I just think by placing a stop loss at ~$43, you are shooting yourself in the foot. If you bought at $45, why wouldn't you buy at $43? If you're going to buy at $43, why would you stop loss $43?
> 
> If you were concerned about losing funds, you should have put a stop loss maybe $0.50 cents away from your original buy, not $2+.
> 
> What happens if Goldcorp dips to $42.85 and then shoots to $49? You will be pissed.
> 
> See the image below:


Hey man, I see the point you're making - if the stock looks good at $45, then it should look even better at $43, not worse. Why would I want to sell when fundamentally the stock is a bit stronger relative to its price?

Because I flat out don't know anything about the mining industry. Goldcorp has a p/e of about 25, and while I know a decent amount about gold/silver - my knowledge of the miners is zero.

So that being said, Goldcorp isn't actually a company that I'd want to hold long-term, I'm only doing this because I see it as a statistically intelligent swing trade at these levels - and because the stock has worked like clock-work so far.

The reason I would sell at $43 rather than average down is because I'm making this trade based on patterns/technicals rather than fundamentals - if the stock breaches $43 then it is no longer following the pattern (the primary reason I made the trade) as well as if it breaches $43 then it breaches a very strong support level which is quite bearish.

Nice job on the trades today! Especially since you managed to hold onto your original shares and collect the 6% gain as well as grabbing some change here and there


----------



## KaeJS

cannadian said:


> Goldcorp has a *p/e of about 25*, and while I know a decent amount about gold/silver - my knowledge of the miners is zero.
> 
> So that being said, Goldcorp isn't actually a company that I'd want to hold *long-term,*


In the short term, P/E Ratio's don't mean a damn thing.

When you are looking for short term trades, you are looking for two things - price action (which you noticed already) and fresh news.

Anyways, congratulations to *both of us* on our Goldcorp trades.


----------



## killuminati

Hi guys,

I'm pretty new around here but I liked the talk of goldcorp on Tuesday so I bought in at 44.80. Glad I did because yesterday was a nice surprise gain of me 

Any estimates on a good exit point? I know lots of people have been saying 55, I wonder if we will get another dip before going that high.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Up over $1 at open this morning. $48.90 at 9:43.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Ihatetaxes said:


> Up over $1 at open this morning. $48.90 at 9:43.


I bought when it dipped to 45.

This is a trading stock to me. I like the idea of buying around 45 and then letting it run. You have to think about selling when it gets up around 55. This is still a growth story but also a high quality producer with low costs for production and with little political risk. The only thing I'd like is a higher yield.


----------



## cannadian

KaeJS said:


> In the short term, P/E Ratio's don't mean a damn thing.
> 
> When you are looking for short term trades, you are looking for two things - price action (which you noticed already) and fresh news.
> 
> Anyways, congratulations to *both of us* on our Goldcorp trades.


Indeed! Thanks for the trading idea btw, I wouldn't have even checked out the stock had you not made this thread haha



killuminati said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> I'm pretty new around here but I liked the talk of goldcorp on Tuesday so I bought in at 44.80. Glad I did because yesterday was a nice surprise gain of me
> 
> Any estimates on a good exit point? I know lots of people have been saying 55, I wonder if we will get another dip before going that high.


I'm looking to get out around $52 to $55, will probably put in stop-losses and just follow the price up to lock in profits..



PMREdmonton said:


> I bought when it dipped to 45.
> 
> This is a trading stock to me. I like the idea of buying around 45 and then letting it run. You have to think about selling when it gets up around 55. This is still a growth story but also a high quality producer with low costs for production and with little political risk. The only thing I'd like is a higher yield.


Yeah that's what I'm planning on doing as well (buy around 45, sell around 55)


----------



## cannadian

Looks like another good entry point may be here soon.


----------



## KaeJS

Yep. It's on my watchlist.

Would like to grab it under $45 if possible


----------



## PMREdmonton

Someone on another board mentioned a low risk way to play Goldcorp for rapid and leveraged gains when it gets close to $45 where there is very strong technical support. The idea is that the volatility of the stock has created large options contracts. So you sell puts at $45 and then sell when the stock bounces back up for a quick high leverage gain. You have to do this in a non-registered account, though.

If it does get put to you you'll get Goldcorp for around $42 which isn't the end of the world as it'll probably bounce back up in time.


----------



## sensfan15

Goldcorp up 2.59% as I post this...Increased the dividend 32% too 



Fourth Quarter 2011 Highlights

Revenues increased to $1.5 billion, on gold sales of 685,000 ounces.
Record operating cash flows before working capital changes totaled $831 million or $1.03 per share.
Adjusted net earnings totaled $531 million, or $0.66 per share.
Total cash costs were $261 per ounce on a by-product basis. Co-product cash costs1 totaled $529 per ounce.
Dividends paid amounted to $91 million. Dividend increased 32% to $0.54 per share.
Certificate of Authorization was issued for the Éléonore project in Quebec allowing full construction to commence immediately.
Received approval of amended Environmental Impact Assessment at the Cerro ***** project in Argentina.
Entered into a $2 billion senior revolving credit facility, replacing the existing $1.5 billion facility.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Good timing for good news after I picked up 280 shares yesterday in my TFSA!  Every time I buy this stock I make a profit in the days following.


----------



## sensfan15




----------



## Toronto.gal

Yeah, I'm so very excited about the huge dividend increase.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Sold all 280 a couple of minutes ago at 47.35.


----------



## Toronto.gal

For a tax-hater, you made a nice tax-free profit [assumed you made close to $2/per share].


----------



## leoc2

Ihatetaxes said:


> Sold all 280 a couple of minutes ago at 47.35.


Congrats!

Wondering if Mr Chan's charts indicate further upside for gold?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID530404


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> Yeah, I'm so very excited about the huge dividend increase.


only that Dividend got increased to $0.54 last year 
T.gal are you long G or just day trading?


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> T.gal are you long G or just day trading?


Long [holding a couple of years now].

But I do trade other gold stocks.


----------



## PMREdmonton

I got an idea on seeking alpha for use of leverage with Goldcorp trading options on the US exchange.

As it dropped close to 45 I bought some 7 April puts with strike 45. I only had to put up a tiny amount of equity to do so but I'm also potentially on the hook for 700 GG shares in April if the stock price drops below 45 but that wouldn't be such a bad outcome as I would then be buying at 42.80 once the 2.20 payment for the put is accounted for.

Now I'm looking to trade out once it hits around 48 or 49 when I should be able to buy out my options for under 1.00 or I may just let the put expire if it doesn't accelerate way out there at which point I'd be kicking myself for not going long.

This is basically a leveraged play on a stock I like with little risk of assignment due to the high resistance it meets around 43-45. It doesn't stay down in the doldrums for long before someone bids it up.

My favourite long gold play right now is AUQ but I've been waiting for it to break out of its downdrift pattern for awhile and have no position in it at the moment. 

I do think it points out what I've always believed - precious metal stocks are mostly trading stocks.


----------



## sensfan15

What is everyone's exit price on G? I'm looking for $51-52 area...


----------



## gibor365

sensfan15 said:


> What is everyone's exit price on G? I'm looking for $51-52 area...


Last year I sold 53.7....we'll see now


----------



## killuminati

Looks like its coming back in range around 45. You guys still watching this one?

Last run up I sold at 49.70 and its close to where I bought last time.


----------



## Med

killuminati said:


> Looks like its coming back in range around 45. You guys still watching this one?
> 
> Last run up I sold at 49.70 and its close to where I bought last time.



I bought 100 at 45.54. I will buy some more if it goes below 45


----------



## KaeJS

killuminati said:


> You guys still watching this one?


Always.


----------



## dogcom

I am also thinking of pulling the trigger on this one around $45 or lower. I had K and sold it at $10.90 for a small profit a few days ago after looking at the news and seeing there might be a problem so I tossed it in the ditch.


----------



## KaeJS

dogcom, I was actually looking to buy K today, but then thought the same thing as you. Too many problems, so I closed my browser before I did something stupid.

I will buy G at $45. I'm hoping for another sell off tomorrow. If it does sell off tomorrow, I will probably purchase. I am not eager beaver to buy, so it must reach my price point of $45.


----------



## Argonaut

Agree that Goldcorp is a good buy if it holds at $45 from a purely technical perspective. But I don't have much interest in tying up capital with common shares, and the options are prohibitively expensive. Why would I pay 5.85 for a 45 call strike next January? Maybe selling the 43 puts is a better idea.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Don't see the 43 puts, have some courage and sign the 45 puts for October and collect $395 per contract. 

The stock will soon bounce and you can close for a gain of about $200 per contract for holding it a couple of weeks.

The worst that'll happen is the stock remains weak and you'll buy in at $41/share which isn't a bad price for the best senior gold mining stock in the world who is also the low cost producer and has all its mines in politically stable areas. You also get a world class silver mining company in the process and I'm probably more bullish on silver than gold but I prefer to buy silver only stocks for that exposure.

Anyhow, I mostly view gold miners as trading stocks and not long-term holds and the best way to play this as a trade is puts at around 45 where there tends to be a lot of technical resistance and then close the trade when the stock strengthens to about 48.50 or so and you'll be ready to play the trade again next month.

I did this trade last month on 7 contracts which I closed about 2 weeks later for a gain of around $900.

The one thing I might add is it is better to let the stock drop a bit more as the premiums for the 45 strike will improve as the stock continues to plummet. You don't want to wait too long and miss the chance to make the trade, though. It is always a balancing act when trading.


----------



## al42

I had a buy order in for K @ $10.35 that got triggered yesterday...should have set it lower.
oh well will hold it for a bit and see what happens.





dogcom said:


> I am also thinking of pulling the trigger on this one around $45 or lower. I had K and sold it at $10.90 for a small profit a few days ago after looking at the news and seeing there might be a problem so I tossed it in the ditch.


----------



## humble_pie

edmonton no offence & in general i think you are a good trader. But do you see the contradiction in what you have said about GG puts:

_"... have some courage and sign the 45 puts for October and collect $395 per contract.

The stock will soon bounce and you can close for a gain of about $200 per contract for holding it a couple of weeks ...

The one thing I might add is it is better to let the stock drop a bit more as the premiums for the 45 strike will improve as the stock continues to plummet."_

in my world, the way i've learned to play it, prices can only go one way or the other at the end of 2 weeks. Stk will either bounce & puts drop. Or stk will plummet & puts rise.

or one could do a 4-legged iron play 




rise


----------



## killuminati

Another huge sell-off today.. almost hitting 44 this morning

Gold has dropped like crazy...is that why this is dropping ?

Edit: under 44 now


----------



## PMREdmonton

bought 300 at 44.40.

Sold July calls 45 strike for 2.91
Sold July puts 44 strike at 3.05

If it falls before 44 I get new shares at about 41.35 = bargain.

If price goes above 45 I have made 6.50 in 4 months on 300 shares.


----------



## Spudd

Well, I decided to get in on this too. 22 @ 44.01.


----------



## killuminati

In at 43.70. Lets go!


----------



## dogcom

Ok I am in on G at $43.70 It could still be a rough ride but I think I will probably hold this one even it it drops to $39.00 in a crazy sell off. It is now officially oversold by my calculation on the short term but as we know if everyone wants out it can go to extreme oversold levels. I still however don't believe big buyers and institutions won't want to bid this but who knows.


----------



## reggie

In for 100 @ $43.70


----------



## Argonaut

Looks like the entire buying ammunition of CMF has been used up; stock still languishing. Hope you guys do well. Gold looks awful right now, but it's shaking out the weak hands.


----------



## dogcom

Thats funny argonaut and I was thinking the same thing as you. Maybe the insiders were looking to unload and saw the opportunity to unload it to the CMF forum.


----------



## PMREdmonton

humble_pie said:


> edmonton no offence & in general i think you are a good trader. But do you see the contradiction in what you have said about GG puts:
> 
> _"... have some courage and sign the 45 puts for October and collect $395 per contract.
> 
> The stock will soon bounce and you can close for a gain of about $200 per contract for holding it a couple of weeks ...
> 
> The one thing I might add is it is better to let the stock drop a bit more as the premiums for the 45 strike will improve as the stock continues to plummet."_
> 
> in my world, the way i've learned to play it, prices can only go one way or the other at the end of 2 weeks. Stk will either bounce & puts drop. Or stk will plummet & puts rise.
> 
> or one could do a 4-legged iron play
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rise


Sorry, a bit of contradiction, I agree.

My basic idea is the stock is range bound with strong resistance around 44 USD (I am talking about GG here). It always bounces within a month of reaching this level.

I like selling puts when it is weak at 44 and close to the money. Then when the stock bounces up the puts drop in value and buy to close the position. The other way I am going to play it this time is to buy some stock (300 shares) and also sell some calls at 45 so I can take advantage of the stock bouncing up. Then I can let the call get exercised by the other party in July (or sooner). 

I mostly see this trade as a way to either get into the stock cheaply if it is weak (I buy once at 44 then sell contracts for 6.50 on a put and a covered call. So if the stock stays weak I buy another tranche at 37.50 to lower my ACB to around 40.50. If the stock strengthens then the put isn't exercised and I pocket the put and get exercised on the call for a big net gain in a short period of time).

It's a new strategy I'm trying to play that is a "moneyball strategy" where I swing for singles and doubles but not homeruns. I only would do this strategy on a stock that I am happy to hold at the price it is currently selling and try to decrease my ACB in case I end up holding the stock. Alternatively I can make a fairly quick gain if the stock strengthens up so I win either way. The only way I lose is if the stock really tanks but that is why I only buy strong companies close to their 52-week lows with tested strong technical resistance around my buy level.


----------



## humble_pie

sounds great, chapeaux, félicitations, it's a strangle.

actually i write strangles on just about every stock i ever hold, save & except for the truly wild things like africa oil & gasfrac.

sometimes i don't sell the put side, though, if i already hold too much of the stock.

edmonton my prize one is a naked short strangle in US cnq. It's my only naked strangle. Right now it's short 20 june 46 uncovered calls & 10 jan/13 25 uncovered puts. Proper risk management would dictate less calls more puts but i have a personal thing against being assigned in puts.

it sounds risky but i have been constantly selling this strangle for 3-4 years now. Just keep rolling it forward. The strike prices move up & down according to the times. It pays big enough, although, as you can see, i work em quite a bit farther from the chest than you do. Unlike your practice, my goal is to never be assigned. It makes the tax reporting easier.

you are right about stocks trading in a band. One harvests the rewards at the extremities of the bands.


----------



## al42

Might have to double down on G today or tomorrow.
Don't really like to do this but I think it's going to get hit pretty hard today.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Already -4% on the US side.


----------



## Knight Rider

Bah, bought 200 shares at $41.83 and don't have much room to DCA down in the TFSA.


----------



## Andre112

^ I'm in the same boat but higher cost...


----------



## Argonaut

The business is shrinking, they continually disappoint, and the chart has broken all support. Nothing to like about Goldcorp.

For someone who follows gold more than the average human, I must say one has to find a quality growing company or invest in the metal itself.

Gold stocks are not buy and hold for the simple reason that their resources are very much finite.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

I'm in (kind of)

I just sold a GG May 39 put for $1.55


----------



## Argonaut

Don't understand that move, you're getting (less than) $155 to take on a whole bunch of risk and an option that is already poised for assignment. I'd rather work a few extra hours to get $155.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

Argonaut said:


> Don't understand that move, you're getting (less than) $155 to take on a whole bunch of risk and an option that is already poised for assignment. I'd rather work a few extra hours to get $155.


What's not to understand?

I decided to buy one lot of GG. I'm getting paid a premium to buy it at a price I like.


----------



## al42

Taken out back to the woodshed today.
From what I understand Red Lake only represents 10% of G's production and it's not like they are closing the mine!!
But the market in it's wisdom is taken the S.P. down close to 7%.
Oh well...picked up a few more shares @ $37.95.


----------



## KaeJS

Thinking about buying this one tomorrow.

Maybe only 50 shares.


----------



## PMREdmonton

This is a great company and this is a great price to acquire. They are the lowest cost producer and operate in mining friendly countries with little geopolitical risks. They are also poised to open new mines in the next few years and dramatically increase production of gold and silver. There is not an equivalent company on the planet. I only wish it paid a higher dividend but that will probably come in time once more of their projects are up and running.

I sold a 40 put for 1.70 for May and will probably now get assigned but I can't say that I'm too worried about it. I never expected it to get this low with gold at this price but the market has turned irrationally negative on precious metal stocks even while they are still very bullish on the precious metals themselves. It is a very odd form of psychology to value the stuff above ground at so many more multiples than the stuff under the ground when they can be mined efficiently with modern technology at little risk as is the case with Goldcorp.


----------



## fatcat

PMREdmonton said:


> This is a great company and this is a great price to acquire. They are the lowest cost producer and operate in mining friendly countries with little geopolitical risks. They are also poised to open new mines in the next few years and dramatically increase production of gold and silver. There is not an equivalent company on the planet. I only wish it paid a higher dividend but that will probably come in time once more of their projects are up and running.
> 
> I sold a 40 put for 1.70 for May and will probably now get assigned but I can't say that I'm too worried about it. I never expected it to get this low with gold at this price but the market has turned irrationally negative on precious metal stocks even while they are still very bullish on the precious metals themselves. It is a very odd form of psychology to value the stuff above ground at so many more multiples than the stuff under the ground when they can be mined efficiently with modern technology at little risk as is the case with Goldcorp.


edmonton, is it possible that the market doesn't really value pm's ? ... i mean that the reason equities are down relative to the metals is that the market doesn't really trust pm's in the long run ? ... in the short run, yes, but the long run ? ... no ?


----------



## PMREdmonton

Yes, I think this is a definite possibility and I'd argue the stocks are priced for gold around $1000/oz. I know the gold bulls think gold is still undervalued and of course guys like Buffett think gold is ridiculously overvalued as it produces nothing and generates no interest income.

So long as there is sovereign risk fears and so long as so many nations have near ZIRP gold will continue to flourish so I can see many years with very strong gold prices.

I'd argue that the silver story is on firmer legs as it is also quite scarce, it is tough to find good silver deposits that can be mined at low cost, silver is necessary in many industrial, technological and medical processes. Unlike gold, the silver is basically consumed in these industrial processes and then not available for storage purposes where gold has mostly been kept as a store of value.

The big reason I think the miner's are getting hurt is they are not seen as protection against sovereign risk like the PMs are. They are also seen as stocks and are viewed as being more risky than the average stock and thus penalized on that front. Furthermore, I think many have been penalized for soaring costs of production due to a variety of issues such as royalties paid, cost of energy, cost of chemical supplies and labour disputes pushing up salaries. Finally, despite the fact many are gushing in profits most are keeping that money to try and replace reserves which is becoming harder and harder to do. The companies may be viewed more favorably if they focused on returning value to shareholders through dividends and only pursuing growth of production when it is sound economically to do so.

Overall, I think quality gold stocks should be a part of most people's portfolios (a small part) as it will trade with the commodity, doesn't have storage costs and most are paying a rising dividend so it will offer some diversification. I would just encourage investing in companies with good leadership, sound financials, low debt and low cost of production in areas with little geopolitical risk. Goldcorp passes all of these tests. It is the only gold major I hold right now (I bought some NSU when it got really beat up recently) although I have occasionally given some thought to Yamana, Barrick and Iamgold. I would not touch Kinross except as a short-term contrarian trade.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

You guys still think its a good time to enter in here? Trading at $38.09. Still think it will run back up to the 52-55 mark you were talking about before?


----------



## fatcat

PMREdmonton said:


> Yes, I think this is a definite possibility and I'd argue the stocks are priced for gold around $1000/oz. I know the gold bulls think gold is still undervalued and of course guys like Buffett think gold is ridiculously overvalued as it produces nothing and generates no interest income.
> 
> So long as there is sovereign risk fears and so long as so many nations have near ZIRP gold will continue to flourish so I can see many years with very strong gold prices.
> 
> I'd argue that the silver story is on firmer legs as it is also quite scarce, it is tough to find good silver deposits that can be mined at low cost, silver is necessary in many industrial, technological and medical processes. Unlike gold, the silver is basically consumed in these industrial processes and then not available for storage purposes where gold has mostly been kept as a store of value.
> 
> The big reason I think the miner's are getting hurt is they are not seen as protection against sovereign risk like the PMs are. They are also seen as stocks and are viewed as being more risky than the average stock and thus penalized on that front. Furthermore, I think many have been penalized for soaring costs of production due to a variety of issues such as royalties paid, cost of energy, cost of chemical supplies and labour disputes pushing up salaries. Finally, despite the fact many are gushing in profits most are keeping that money to try and replace reserves which is becoming harder and harder to do. The companies may be viewed more favorably if they focused on returning value to shareholders through dividends and only pursuing growth of production when it is sound economically to do so.
> 
> Overall, I think quality gold stocks should be a part of most people's portfolios (a small part) as it will trade with the commodity, doesn't have storage costs and most are paying a rising dividend so it will offer some diversification. I would just encourage investing in companies with good leadership, sound financials, low debt and low cost of production in areas with little geopolitical risk. Goldcorp passes all of these tests. It is the only gold major I hold right now (I bought some NSU when it got really beat up recently) although I have occasionally given some thought to Yamana, Barrick and Iamgold. I would not touch Kinross except as a short-term contrarian trade.


right, goldcorp is looking pretty cheap ... i am going to roll the dice and bet it will get cheaper ... bernanke seems to be playing a game of chicken and he seems to be winning and the europeans are using razzle dazzle so i think gold might correct down even more though at some point it will come back ... i really do think that the big money guys just don't trust gold at 1600-1900 and that makes the equities just look a little dicey ... anyway, i have lost my crystal ball so whadda i know


----------



## Axcell

fatcat said:


> right, goldcorp is looking pretty cheap ... i am going to roll the dice and bet it will get cheaper ... bernanke seems to be playing a game of chicken and he seems to be winning and the europeans are using razzle dazzle so i think gold might correct down even more though at some point it will come back ... i really do think that the big money guys just don't trust gold at 1600-1900 and that makes the equities just look a little dicey ... anyway, i have lost my crystal ball so whadda i know


GG is now trading at 37.36. Insanely cheap. How much lower do you think it can go? I personally see $37 as a great entry.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Mr. Market will do what its going to do.

Goldcorp isn't anchored by a dividend and its next technical support isn't until around $20.

My guess would be that it shouldn't go down too much more before shorts will cover and bulls will jump in hand over fist. This is still a very strong profitable country with major increases in gold production upcoming and gold is selling for 1650 an ounce. They are the lowest cost and thus safest producer to buy for those interested in gold stocks.

I wouldn't be too worried about holding this one long term but in the short term anything can happen including a re-testing of 2009 lows (but gold was 700 then and there was a possible depression in the air so I doubt that happens).


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Well I am in for 100 @ $36.52
Hope it does well


----------



## dogcom

Barrick reported and costs are rising to the point that people are questioning that maybe it is time to shelf some of these mega projects for all the big producers because the gold is still there in the ground and it can wait. So there is good reason people are selling but at what point are they selling beyond this sort of news and I think we have past this point but as we know the pendulum will always swing to far the other way before it comes back.


----------



## al42

Wow...Dropping like a stone.


----------



## Knight Rider

Yeah, I bought 200 at $41.83 and am really not sure what to do. Wait it out or buy another 200 to DCA it down to $38.70 or so.


----------



## al42

I'm going to wait this out a bit. I also took the plunge with Kinross just under $10.00 and I'm taken a bath on it as well.


----------



## Homerhomer

Just added a bit more.


----------



## phrenk

I don't want to sound like the conspiracy theorist, but there is a huge disconnect between gold producer and gold price right now, to a point where it is just absurdly irrational. What is worrysome is that i haven't been able to find anything in the news or analyst reports regarding this disconnect other than 'expenses' are increasing, which is a weak argument given the fact that stocks have declined between 20%-40% since Jan 2012 (kinross is down 27% and Goldcorp 21%).

What other reason could explain the decline ? Well, may sound far fetch, but there's the possibility of market manipulation.


----------



## blin10

phrenk said:


> I don't want to sound like the conspiracy theorist, but there is a huge disconnect between gold producer and gold price right now, to a point where it is just absurdly irrational. What is worrysome is that i haven't been able to find anything in the news or analyst reports regarding this disconnect other than 'expenses' are increasing, which is a weak argument given the fact that stocks have declined between 20%-40% since Jan 2012 (kinross is down 27% and Goldcorp 21%).
> 
> What other reason could explain the decline ? Well, may sound far fetch, but there's the possibility of market manipulation.


you also need to be realistic here, sure there can be disconnect but how low you want G to go $10 ? it came down from 56 to 36 in like 2 months... problem is G below 200 ma and it might sink more purely just on fear


----------



## Spudd

This has taught me a lesson about not doing things just because everyone else is doing it.  I got in at $44. Luckily I only put $1000 in, so I'll just hang in there and wait.


----------



## Toronto.gal

phrenk said:


> What other reason could explain the decline ? Well, may sound far fetch, but there's the possibility of market manipulation.


It has been an irrational market for some time already!

Little is needed these days to see a stock drop [or rise] in double digits, like a stock downgrade and/or any negative news, like for example the mine permit suspension in Chile that was announced on Monday.

Seems to me that if earnings missed a couple of years ago for example, a stock would drop a few % points, now, it is like 20%/30% or more!


----------



## doctrine

What does everyone mean, "huge" disconnect. They reported $0.50 in earnings last quarter. That puts them on a P/E of 20. Doesn't seem like a cheap stock to me, especially given that its earnings are solely tied to the price of a single commodity.


----------



## phrenk

doctrine said:


> What does everyone mean, "huge" disconnect. They reported $0.50 in earnings last quarter. That puts them on a P/E of 20. Doesn't seem like a cheap stock to me, especially given that its earnings are solely tied to the price of a single commodity.


I'm not just talking about Goldcorp, i'm talking about all gold producers, and to a larger extent, ressource companies. There seems to be a systemic fear outhere for commodity related stocks. Found this article published today highlighting this fear and irrationality : http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...needed-optimism-for-resources/article2421692/


----------



## KaeJS

Since when has P/E become such a big deal?

I don't understand. There are many companies trading at more than 20x earnings and still increasing.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. P/E is a bullshit metric.

Many stocks have P/E's of 40 and continue to increase, so there is money to be made.


----------



## KaeJS

Are you saying EnCana is a bad buy because the P/E is 120?

Are you saying that Enbridge is a bad buy, because it used to have a P/E of 40? (still has a P/E of 30, and the stock price is still increasing)

Are you saying that Crescent Point Energy is a bad buy because it has a P/E of 60?

If this is the case..... then are you saying TransAlta is a good buy, because it has a P/E of 12? :rolleyes2:


----------



## moneyisfornothing

KaeJS said:


> Are you saying EnCana is a bad buy because the P/E is 120?
> 
> Are you saying that Enbridge is a bad buy, because it used to have a P/E of 40? (still has a P/E of 30, and the stock price is still increasing)
> 
> Are you saying that Crescent Point Energy is a bad buy because it has a P/E of 60?
> 
> If this is the case..... then are you saying TransAlta is a good buy, because it has a P/E of 12? :rolleyes2:


TA the boring stock became an interesting item in my list.
why..... it is very very cheap , but after tomorrow it might be much cheaper.
cheers and GL


----------



## moneyisfornothing

phrenk said:


> I don't want to sound like the conspiracy theorist, but there is a huge disconnect between gold producer and gold price right now, to a point where it is just absurdly irrational. What is worrysome is that i haven't been able to find anything in the news or analyst reports regarding this disconnect other than 'expenses' are increasing, which is a weak argument given the fact that stocks have declined between 20%-40% since Jan 2012 (kinross is down 27% and Goldcorp 21%).
> 
> What other reason could explain the decline ? Well, may sound far fetch, but there's the possibility of market manipulation.


it is called deleveraging bud.
ang gold atm is where it is at who knows why.
its been hovering the 300 dma and the 10/20 dma became resistance.
but .... the mkts are irrational and any good report on payrolls tomorrow , a very huge knee jerk reaction will take place as anyone already knows.
look at ABX last report.
problem ain't the miner, problem is deleveraging
cheers and GL:encouragement:


----------



## doctrine

Those stocks are all a bad buy, and primarily because their predicted revenue and earnings growth is nowhere near their P/E. I like to add an estimate of earnings growth to the P/E, because as you say its not all about a single number. Is Encana likely to sustain 120% earnings growth for the next 10 years? No, so I wouldn't buy it. Transalta is clearly at risk of decreasing revenue and earnings, so a P/E of 12 is not low enough. If CPE has a P/E of 60 I'd be running because its not nearly covering its dividend (and doing some serious shareholder dilution), and I haven't bought Enbridge since before the last stock split when it was $27 (or $54 at the time), and had a much more realistic P/E to realistic earnings of around 20. It's gone to a P/e closer to 30 with only a 10-15% growth in earnings, so I'm not buying more. 

Back to Goldcorp, if it has a realistic earnings growth of 15-20% per year for the next 10 years, then maybe its a decent buy, but a far cry from a screaming buy. Given its exposure to a single commodity, I'd expect some risk premium. Not for me, but maybe for someone else. If it had a P/E of 10 then it might be a screaming buy, or maybe a little lower. Just my opinion, YMMV. Benjamin Graham cautioned against buying anything at a P/E of higher than 15, and thats the standard I measure against.


----------



## Assetologist

I agree; PE does matter!
It can both provide absolute and relative comparisons and is easily tracked.
One caveat is the PE matters for investing not trading and kaejs seems to be trading.


----------



## dogcom

If oil can keep getting hammered like today and gold holds where it is then this will be very bullish for gold miners as costs will come down. You would think there are some smart big buyers buying into this weakness that later in the year we can say the famous saying, that the easy money has already been made.


----------



## PMREdmonton

IMO low PE is more relevant for a stock that also has high FCF yield, high quality earnings, high forecast earnings in the future (at least keeping pace with inflation + GDP growth) and pays a reasonable dividend.

The reasons I put these provisos down is if you want to play value, don't buy value traps which is stocks that may lose their earning power in the future (i.e. RIM). Buying them on the basis of a low trailing PE is foolish.

The other thing is some accountants to a lot of gimmickry to make PE appear low - you want to see high quality earnings.

As per the point above, in a good company FCF should be close to earnings. Sometimes you have to make account for capex for expansion versus capex for maintenance of equipment but most low PE stocks aren't aggressively expanding anyway so capex should be reasonably low in a low-growth company.

Lastly, stocks can stay cheap for a long time. If they are going to be cheap for awhile I want a sustainable and reasonable dividend while I wait. I preferably want at least 30% of earnings in a company that is expanding and 50-60% for a company in a low growth mode. This hedges me somewhat against the market just permanently deciding to pay a low multiple of earnings on a low growth stock which then has little potential for capital appreciation as there is little earnings growth to propel the PPS.


----------



## GOB

I think Barrick is valued much more attractively right now


----------



## Axcell

GOB said:


> I think Barrick is valued much more attractively right now


Any buyers of Goldcorp today? 
I owned shares in Barrick, dumped Barrick a few days ago (thankfully)... but Goldcorp I really like as a company and so I held onto it. Tempted to average down (for the 3rd time.)


----------



## Dopplegangerr

This has just gotten beaten down with a stick. I bought a week ago and its already down 5.5% since then. Wish I had have waited lol, no late now though I guess


----------



## Homerhomer

I have added a bit more today.


----------



## dogcom

What is the old saying, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Others are certainly fearful when it comes to gold stocks and if you want to test that theory then gold mining stocks today are a great place to start. The only wrinkle here is the actual price of gold may not yet have found its bottom as many people bullish on gold are still calling for between $1300 to $1500 as a final bottom for gold which means the pain for the miners could go on for awhile until gold does actually bottom.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I sold G on January 26 for $48.65 and bought back in today for $34.75. Would love to sell for the same price I did back in January some time down the road!!


----------



## PMREdmonton

Goldcorp is a very strong gold and silver miner both financially and in terms of managment and operations. They have new ventures that will come online soon that will give bottom and top line growth. This is a great company trading at a discount and I bet that will soon go into acquisition mode with all the beaten up juniors out there.

I have very little fear of permanent capital loss with this company and today is a very, very attractive entry point. I will get put 200 shares from a put I sold for 1.50 with a strike of 40 about a month ago but that is okay. I don't mind getting assigned but just wished my crystal ball had worked better when GG was selling at 42 and obeying its long-term resistance levels.


----------



## humble_pie

edmonton it's distressing to watch masochists commit ritual suicide. Goldcorp is 34.40, why are you so eager to pay $40 for it, for a capital loss of roughly 5.60 straight out of the gate.

you could roll over those short may puts - i'm assuming they are mays - for october 40s or january 38s or 36s.

rolling over means escaping at no cost from the sticky wicket you are in. Plus you would get to keep your $8000 instead of meekly laying it on the chopping block in a couple of weeks.

some traders never buy stock long. They just continue continue selling puts. Because return from (long stock less short call) = return from short put. One has to include interest rates.


----------



## killuminati

Will we ever find a bottom here?


----------



## Knight Rider

Nice little rebound in G today. Up almost 5%.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Not just for G; others rallied as well after bullion prices took off this morning.


----------



## PMREdmonton

humble_pie said:


> edmonton it's distressing to watch masochists commit ritual suicide. Goldcorp is 34.40, why are you so eager to pay $40 for it, for a capital loss of roughly 5.60 straight out of the gate.
> 
> you could roll over those short may puts - i'm assuming they are mays - for october 40s or january 38s or 36s.
> 
> rolling over means escaping at no cost from the sticky wicket you are in. Plus you would get to keep your $8000 instead of meekly laying it on the chopping block in a couple of weeks.
> 
> some traders never buy stock long. They just continue continue selling puts. Because return from (long stock less short call) = return from short put. One has to include interest rates.


I actually have been thinking about it with how far it has now fallen, HP.

I looked at pricing and I'm thinking about Oct strike at 37 which is selling for $5 today. The stock has just gotten so oversold that I kept expecting a big bounceback that just didn't seem to be happening. I would rather avoid taking the stock because I have my full allocation of gold miners and don't really want anymore. 

Thanks for the advice, HP. I'll probably do it tomorrow as I'm hoping for a bit of a rally off of these ridiculous lows.


----------



## humble_pie

PMREdmonton said:


> I looked at pricing and I'm thinking about Oct strike at 37 which is selling for $5 today.


i don't see any october 37s, the octobers appear to be going up by 2s.

i'd go for the januaries anyhow, i'd want to capture that higher premium. January 36P are 4.25-4.35, with 50 bid, 20 offered. Do you see that 50 contracts bid, this means there are outsiders bidding (the 20 offered is the dealer all by himself.) So you know that among those 50 bid, somebody is probably going to pay 4.30 easy.

you'd have to pay somewhere around 4.50 to buy back the wretched mays, so this is a debit spread. Chalk it up against the 1.50 you received when you first sold the 40 puts. At minus 20 pennies, this approach is a bargain imho. Not a cure, but a workable treatment.


----------



## PMREdmonton

humble_pie said:


> i don't see any october 37s, the octobers appear to be going up by 2s.
> 
> i'd go for the januaries anyhow, i'd want to capture that higher premium. January 36P are 4.25-4.35, with 50 bid, 20 offered. Do you see that 50 contracts bid, this means there are outsiders bidding (the 20 offered is the dealer all by himself.) So you know that among those 50 bid, somebody is probably going to pay 4.30 easy.
> 
> you'd have to pay somewhere around 4.50 to buy back the wretched mays, so this is a debit spread. Chalk it up against the 1.50 you received when you first sold the 40 puts. At minus 20 pennies, this approach is a bargain imho. Not a cure, but a workable treatment.


I bought Goldcorp (GG) and there do seem to be October puts with a strike at 37 listed on Google Finance. Are you talking about Goldcorp(G) doesn't have a 37 strike?

I could go out to January but I always thought gold stocks were weak in the summer and then stronger in the fall so October seemed to be the first time I could rest on the rising wave of gold prices. I suppose I could go down to January on the puts as I'm not actually tying much money up in the process - just a bit of margin.

Thanks for the advice, HP. the January 36 put is at 4.60-4.70 right now for GG on Google Finance. If Goldcorp starts strong again tomorrow I may let it rally a bit before the buy but if it starts out weak I'll roll it over. I'm still hoping for a bounce from gold bulls. I have all the gold mining exposure I want or I'd be happy to buy some here at this valuation.


----------



## humble_pie

yes, i was writing about canadian options but realized afterwards you had US, which is good, because US option markets are generally more flexible.

i'd go to the januaries. The jan 36P you have mentioned is not bad at 4.60-.70. Since the may 40s closed at 4.45-.55, the natural credit was only a nickel. Nevertheless one could reasonably look for a dime credit here.


----------



## PMREdmonton

I bought back the 40strike puts for 4.55 today.

I sold the 37strike Jan13 puts for 5.25.

I have now done my first roll-over.

I then went out and did another on some covered calls for HIG 20strike May18 bought back today for .30 and then sold another covered call for 21strike Sept for 1.30.

I decided that I am not too scared to hold HIG because of how beat up it is and their assets still have a lot of value and earning power. I also decided a little while ago their dividend was insufficient so I better start selling some covered calls to get some yield out of this holding that wasn't going anywhere.

All this option stuff is scary at first but it's starting to make more sense to me. I just don't want to take too big of a risk while I'm still in my infancy.


----------



## humble_pie

that's great, edmonton.

gold star that you got out this week. Next week is may expiration. By mid-week all the pro traders will have wound up their may options & they'll be gone. Nobody will be left except naiive stragglers. The dealer will probably widen his spreads because he'll know that they are desperate ...

another gold star because the emergency is gone; a 37 put frees you up for quite a while to think about other things.


----------



## PMREdmonton

humble_pie said:


> that's great, edmonton.
> 
> gold star that you got out this week. Next week is may expiration. By mid-week all the pro traders will have wound up their may options & they'll be gone. Nobody will be left except naiive stragglers. The dealer will probably widen his spreads because he'll know that they are desperate ...
> 
> another gold star because the emergency is gone; a 37 put frees you up for quite a while to think about other things.


Thanks for the help, HP.

I've always heard about roll-overs but had never executed one.

The stock just kept on diving on me because the market just got so damn pessimistic. If they are negative on a sector even a temporary problem at a great company can cause a massive sell-off. I saw it earlier this year in the silver miner Hecla, gold miner Nevsun Resources and now Goldcorp. I still like the company and their prospects so I didn't want to give up on it and by rolling it over I now get more time to wait out what I perceive to be the market's irrationality without tying up too much of my capital.

On the other side of things I have made some income by selling covered calls on the Goldcorp stock which I own. My 44 strike May calls are about to expire way out of the money but they were actually in the money on the day that I sold them. That helps mitigate holding the stock while it cratered but I can now continue to sell out of the money calls on it and wait for the market to come to its senses. 

Now does it make more sense to wait for the stock to recover a bit more (say up to 37) and then sell at a higher strike (i.e. 40 strike in Oct) or should I sell at a lower strike right now (i.e. 38 strike in Oct) and then just roll it over to a higher price if it ends up being in the money.


----------



## killuminati

In the past when markets were getting smoked gold always went up, G followed that up in reverse of all other stocks.

Why did that change? Gold keeps dropped with the rest of the market now.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Some have suggested it is because the US has been stronger and there has been no quantitative easing in the US.

Others have suggested that in times of fear people will flock to the US dollar because of its liquidity which pushes up the dollar and pushes down on gold.

As sovereign default issues strengthen then gold should become stronger, in principle.

As for gold stocks, they will go down with equities and will also go down with gold prices. Gold seems to have reached a bottom lately around 1590 or so.


----------



## daddybigbucks

i have no idea which way the wind is blowing but bought some G today.
bought it to hedge against income trusts which are doing great.


----------



## HaroldCrump

daddybigbucks said:


> bought it to hedge against income trusts which are doing great.


I don't understand - what does Gold stock have to do with income trusts?
How does it hedge your income trust position?

Or, did you mean you have made a lot of money with income trusts and want to "hedge" it by losing some


----------



## daddybigbucks

HaroldCrump said:


> I don't understand - what does Gold stock have to do with income trusts?
> How does it hedge your income trust position?
> 
> Or, did you mean you have made a lot of money with income trusts and want to "hedge" it by losing some


I don't understand either , but when i look at the charts for my income trusts against the big gold stocks, they seems to work in unison but in opposite.
I have no concrete proof that will happen in the future, just working on this "hunch".

No one really takes anyone seriously on these bullboards, do they?


----------



## webber22

Who would be dumb enough to be selling gold stocks at these prices ??


----------



## al42

I was DUMB enough to pick up a bit more @ $33.3 this morning.
The market is slowly eating all my money but it's only on paper for now.


----------



## Axcell

webber22 said:


> Who would be dumb enough to be selling gold stocks at these prices ??


Beats me. But I was dumb enough to buy last week and I'm down 15% on my position now after already averaging down. It is SO tempting to average down right now again (Goldcorp (GG) now at $33/share... which is insane.)


----------



## PF_Enthusiast

I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. Today's closing at $32.75. 

This one will be close on my watch list for now until I "feel" the time is right to jump in. I've never been one to attempt to time the markets, but I can't help thinking G will be a great buy at a discount. I'm strictly an index investor up to this point, holding a modified couch potato style portfolio of mutual funds, but I'm slowly trying to add some individual stocks to my portfolio. 

Are any of you that purchased G in the last few weeks currently buying more to DCA at this time? If you haven't, are you also waiting for the price to drop more before you pick up some shares? Finally, are you like me and waiting it out to see when or if to get in?


----------



## larry81

PE is ~10
Forward PE is ~17

what is so exciting about Goldcorp ?


----------



## dogcom

Doing some DCA now is probably a good idea because there could be a very explosive rally coming at some point. I have lost money holding gold stocks in the past month and will continue holding because I feel at some point I will be really glad I did. I am also adding when I can and will add more if the price continues to slide. As we all know a parabolic rise will at some point end and end badly speaking of gold mining bear funds.

Larry this is why maybe owning a ETF like XGD may be a better idea.


----------



## dogcom

I should also add look for a wash out and turn around event to probably mark the bottom. Gold right now is down pretty good right now in after hours which tells me we could very well be at that wash out event right now.


----------



## Axcell

larry81 said:


> PE is ~10
> Forward PE is ~17
> 
> what is so exciting about Goldcorp ?


5-Year Annual Revenue Growth 24.5%
1-Year Revenue Growth 29.7%
Gross Margins of 60.9%
Net Margins of 31.1%
Debt to Equity 3.4%
Current Ratio of 3.12
Normalized P/E is 17.86
5-Year Dividend Growth of 20.4% with a yield of 1.7%. 

Best of breed miner here. 

Valuation is VERY reasonable at this level... Missed yesterday's dip at the close to average down.


----------



## Knight Rider

G is having a very nice day today, up over 8% so far. Wish I had averaged down when it was at $33.


----------



## al42

Just sold the shares for $36.00 that I picked up earlier this week @ $33.3 and $32.75.
Still holding more that I paid over $40.00 for. If it drops back below $33.00 I'll grab some again.
Plus I think I'll get this months dividend on the shares I just sold.

Nope...just checked and no Dividend. Settlement dates are today and tomorrow and it went
ex div on the 15th.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

I sold today for $39.10 for a nice 7% gain for holding for a couple weeks. Would not mind doing that again


----------



## Axcell

Axcell said:


> 5-Year Annual Revenue Growth 24.5%
> 1-Year Revenue Growth 29.7%
> Gross Margins of 60.9%
> Net Margins of 31.1%
> Debt to Equity 3.4%
> Current Ratio of 3.12
> Normalized P/E is 17.86
> 5-Year Dividend Growth of 20.4% with a yield of 1.7%.
> 
> Best of breed miner here.
> 
> Valuation is VERY reasonable at this level... Missed yesterday's dip at the close to average down.


Gold miners are killing it today.. Goldcorp up over 9% today.


----------



## daddybigbucks

sold my G traders today for 20% since mid may.
Put all proceeds into COS and doubled number of shares.
July is coming and demand should increase for oil.


----------



## Homerhomer

Sold small portion as well, unfortunately my gain was smaller ;-) something like 5% on this lot, keeping most as I think it will reach higher in the next few months.

Daddy, good call on getting in on the low.


----------



## Axcell

daddybigbucks said:


> sold my G traders today for 20% since mid may.
> Put all proceeds into COS and doubled number of shares.
> July is coming and demand should increase for oil.


Nice! I sold everything today as well. 15% for me though. 2 weeks hold for me too.

I'd be cautious about COS though... 
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-oil-sands-yield-with-caution/article2449440/

In full disclosure though, I've never liked COS.. I just don't like their CEO. I think even if oil picks up, the stock can go lower.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Sold mine today, 18% in 24 days. Was nice to take a profit as other holdings were getting killed today!!


----------



## KaeJS

This is the only thing that saved my portfolio from getting completely mangled today.


----------



## PMREdmonton

I bought some at 34 but most of mine were bought around 44.

I had to roll over a May 40 put that I had sold into a Jan2013 37 put that is now solidly in the money.

With the recent run-up, I put all my stock up for a July 44 covered call.


----------



## al42

This is the only thing that saved my portfolio from getting completely mangled today. 

I was tempted to sell all my G.T today but decided to hold on because as you said this was the only thing that was 
green today along with K.T. Just hope it doesn't tank back down next week.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

al42 said:


> Just hope it doesn't tank back down next week.


I hope it does so I can pick some more. I had the chance to buy more at 36-37 mark at the beginning of the week but waited for it to go lower to pull the trigger and lost my chance


----------



## KaeJS

al42 said:


> I was tempted to sell all my G.T today but decided to hold on because as you said this was the only thing that was
> green today along with K.T. Just hope it doesn't tank back down next week.


Al, I didn't sell my G, either. It may have been wise to sell on Friday, but judging by the way things have been going... I don't know. I figure I rather have that security knowing I still own it going into next week. However, it is on my "sell" list, as I'm up about $550 on it currently.


----------



## londoncalling

Just out of curiosity Kaejs, Did you let that "margin monkey" climb up on your back again?


----------



## KaeJS

londoncalling said:


> Just out of curiosity Kaejs, Did you let that "margin monkey" climb up on your back again?


Like an idiot? Yes. :hopelessness: :upset:


----------



## Dopplegangerr

I had a limit order today to buy back into G, it has just blasted threw my limit


----------



## KaeJS

Dopple, you bought too early.

Patience is key right now.

If you wanted to buy G, your first order should have been a buy at $35/share with your second order at $33... especially since QE3 is not coming...

Goldcorp is going to get rocked.


----------



## Miser

KaeJS said:


> Dopple, you bought too early.
> 
> Patience is key right now.
> 
> If you wanted to buy G, your first order should have been a buy at $35/share with your second order at $33... *especially since QE3 is not coming*...
> 
> Goldcorp is going to get rocked.


To be continued.........................


----------



## KaeJS

Miser said:


> To be continued.........................


Well, unless it comes out on Monday, Dopple is focked on his G buy.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Thanks for making me feel better brother


----------



## KaeJS

Sorry, sir. :upset:


----------



## al42

I'm still holding on to the shares i bought @ over $40 bucks along with K that i bought around $10.00.
With Gold over 1500 and now with production cost going down due to the recent correction in oil these gold companies should be making a ton of cash. Then you have all the other reasons..everyone printing money, Europe, Greece and so on.


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> Dopple, you bought too early.
> 
> Patience is key right now.
> 
> If you wanted to buy G, your first order should have been a buy at $35/share with your second order at $33... especially since QE3 is not coming...
> 
> Goldcorp is going to get rocked.


1) Too early or too late, obviously is better to buy at the lower price but that's not as easy as you make it sound.
2) Patience, Kaej, I wish you would listen to your own advice because it a very good advice.
2) Looking back it's very easy, and you don't know that QE3 is not coming, it's not coming as of this minute, over the weekend or later on I would bet my money on it.
4) Maybe, maybe not ;-)


----------



## Toronto.gal

Homerhomer said:


> QE3 is not coming, it's not coming as of this minute, over the weekend or later on I would bet my money on it.


I would bet my money too [my pennies]. 

Have patience, it will come and also expect the unexpected in a presidential year!


----------



## PMREdmonton

What I've been doing with my GG shares has been selling covered calls.

My current ACB is $42 but I've already sold 2 calls that expired worthless.

I've now sold a third one at $44 when the stock was hovering around $40 for July for about $0.81 back then but it is now under $0.10 with less than a month to go.

I've now gone on to sell a fourth one at $40 for July earlier this week for about $.80 again.

I'm playing with a bit of fire here as I have 8 contracts open but only own 400 shares but if the stock starts to come close to $40 again I'll close out the $44 contract. The stock has been so weak and it costs an extra $15 to close out the account with the extra trade so I've been reluctant to do so as it'll give up 5% of the value of the contract if I proceed. I will admit that I am a bit nervous about a naked short like this but it is far out of the money at this point.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> I would bet my money too [my pennies].
> Have patience, it will come and also expect the unexpected in a presidential year!


I have mixed thoughts on QE-III as well.
Bernanke and his cronies know very well that it will be completely useless.
It will boost the market for a few days/weeks like a shot of adrenalin, but will make no fundamental impact to the economic activity.
Both Europe and the US are now far beyond the reach of monetary policy instruments.

On the other hand, the USD has partially regained some of its strength that it lost during QE-I and QE-II.
Operation Twist also helped reverse the slide in USD.
Therefore, the Fed has plenty of headroom in the USD to afford QE-III.

You are right that the Presidential race could be a factor.
QE-III will obviously be seen as a back-handed support for the Obama campaign, so maybe the Fed wants to stay away from that politics.


----------



## HaroldCrump

PMREdmonton said:


> I've now sold a third one at $44 when the stock was hovering around $40 for July for about $0.81 back then but it is now under $0.10 with less than a month to go.
> I've now gone on to sell a fourth one at $40 for July earlier this week for about $.80 again.


Do you find it truly worthwhile to take on all that risk for $15 - $80 net profit each trade?
On a risk adjusted basis, you will do far better buying dividend paying bank stocks and selling OTM calls on those.
Heck, even ZWB will do better.

This is the same discussion we were having with KaeJS a while ago when he was having mini panic attacks day trading for $50 profits.


----------



## PMREdmonton

This way I am collecting both the dividend from Goldcorp (it isn't a massive dividend but it is growing) as well as an extra bump from the covered call here.

The options I am selling are fairly short in duration. If they get exercised I can usually just buy the company back and then sell the call again if I want.

Right now I am bullish on Goldcorp but the market is fairly bearish so I get to collect the dividend stream as well as extra income from out of the market calls. Assuming the current calls don't get exercised I've made $2.50 or so on these calls for 400 shares over the past 3 months. So compared to my acquisition cost of $42 per share that is about 5% return. In the meantime I just continue to wait for the bearishness in the stock to subside.

I still like the company long-term so I am happy to hold on for market pessimism to subside and new production to come online.


----------



## al42

Goldcorp will be taken out to the woodshed today.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-forecast-for-gold-production/article4404360/


----------



## Homerhomer

Rough day for G today, too bad didn't sell all of mine when it was at 41 but with the swings this company have and new blocks purchased in the low 30s will make for some good trades.


----------



## Spudd

I'm just irritated that I averaged down the other day. Shoulda waited!


----------



## Toronto.gal

I remember the days when stocks would drop a big 5% on bad news; -8.30% at 9:37 on the NYSE.


----------



## Axcell

Toronto.gal said:


> I remember the days when stocks would drop a big 5% on bad news; -8.30% at 9:37 on the NYSE.


Heh, so glad I exited this one a while back.. made 15% and exited. But I wasn't expecting a bad drop.. I just wasn't very bullish on PMs at the time. 
If this stock drops much lower, I might buy more for a long-term hold.


----------



## Kaitlyn

Got in at $34.33... hoping it doesn't go much lower


----------



## PMREdmonton

I'd wait to see on buying more here - I'd wait to see if it hit new lows.

You can sell an Oct 30 put for 1.54 right now - maybe a better bet than buying the stock as you get a 5% yield if it goes unexercised and hopefully it won't. OTOH, if it does get exercised your entry price would be 28.46 to go long the stock. It's just another alternative compared to buying at this price (33.xx). My initial guess is it'll take a few days for the market to digest the downgrades and estimate revisions. I wouldn't be surprised if you can get a $31.xx entry as it should re-test old lows with this new bad news and the markets are looking for any excuse to pound this one.

IMO, the gold miner pessimism is near maximal for this cycle. At some point the investing public will see gold's elevation is likely permanent instead of the assumptions it will be temporary. New interest in holding gold from central banks, banks (it is now acceptable as tier 1 capital) and emerging market citizens with increased buying power look to buy more just as the marginal cost for production is somewhere around $1200 these days. So the days of $1100 gold may be permanently gone which the market hasn't entirely accepted.

Meanwhile there should be large increases in gold and silver production coming from GG in the near future as new mines come online over the next couple of years. I view the present setbacks as temporary blips which will soon be resolved and that present prices represent good valuations for accumulators. I would look for a 5% bounce in two weeks as gold bulls welcome a chance to accumulate at low prices again after missing the last dip. They'll probably just wait a few days to make sure all the sellers have a chance to flea and drive down the price some more.

Disclosure: I am long GG


----------



## Dopplegangerr

O crap I was in Paris for a couple days and could not get my platform working. Hope I didnt lose to much...


----------



## dogcom

Goldcorp is the best of the best in gold stocks and look what happens. While I might pick it up here it is still better especially in gold stocks to buy an ETF for your biggest holding in this sector unless you have enough money to spread it out yourself.


----------



## blin10

dogcom said:


> Goldcorp is the best of the best in gold stocks and look what happens. While I might pick it up here *it is still better especially in gold stocks to buy an ETF for your biggest holding in this sector* unless you have enough money to spread it out yourself.


very true, stick with gld


----------



## doctrine

Excuse my ignorance of gold stocks, but isnt Goldcorp's advantage being whittled down here? Growing production and low costs are always cited here... this warning was that production isn't growing as fast anymore, and that costs are rising. Bad on both counts, and I'd wait until buying, although honestly I wouldn't buy this at all because the dividend is too low.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Went back to the very start of this thread. People were quite excited to be buying Goldcorp at $45. Now it is close to dipping below $33. And yet I am hearing words of caution that its slide may not yet be over, and that the company faces daunting challenges ahead.

I have considered buying a couple thousand shares of this sometime soon. Seems like a no-brainer when you look at its historical price levels. But... have to think about this some more, obviously.


----------



## Plugging Along

I just jumped in today at $33. We will see what happens.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I was in at $32.82 yesterday as well (the cheapest price I have ever paid for this stock).


----------



## Kaitlyn

Ihatetaxes said:


> I was in at $32.82 yesterday as well (the cheapest price I have ever paid for this stock).


I got in at $34.34. Really wish I got in/bought more lower but I guess I missed out! Congrats to you though...


----------



## PMREdmonton

I played this one with options - but a Jan 2013 put at 29. Once the stock goes back to 35/36 those options will be very cheap and I'll buy them out. I hold enough GG right now for my preferences so I didn't want to take on anymore. However, this way I get to take some easy profits based on others' unfounded fear about a collapse in the company. 

Gold is probably a good place to be for the next few years and I see no collapse in the gold prices.

GG is running into some challenges in one mine but other production should be coming up from other mines in development. The amount of production involved is about 5% of their annual production and this is a typical case of overreaction to short-term thinking in this space. If you're going to hold for awhile this is still a very good company. Gold stock investors are too focused on short-term production increases instead of quality - low geopolitical risk, low cost production, excellent creditworthiness, low leverage, history of excellent mine construction and meeting production targets. Every company has the odd hiccup and this is what is happening to Goldcorp right now.

It was a great opportunity for accumulators to get some below 32. I don't think it'll stay below 35 for very long.


----------



## Kaitlyn

PMREdmonton said:


> I played this one with options - but a Jan 2013 put at 29. Once the stock goes back to 35/36 those options will be very cheap and I'll buy them out. I hold enough GG right now for my preferences so I didn't want to take on anymore. However, this way I get to take some easy profits based on others' unfounded fear about a collapse in the company.
> 
> Gold is probably a good place to be for the next few years and I see no collapse in the gold prices.
> 
> GG is running into some challenges in one mine but other production should be coming up from other mines in development. The amount of production involved is about 5% of their annual production and this is a typical case of overreaction to short-term thinking in this space. If you're going to hold for awhile this is still a very good company. Gold stock investors are too focused on short-term production increases instead of quality - low geopolitical risk, low cost production, excellent creditworthiness, low leverage, history of excellent mine construction and meeting production targets. Every company has the odd hiccup and this is what is happening to Goldcorp right now.
> 
> It was a great opportunity for accumulators to get some below 32. I don't think it'll stay below 35 for very long.


I'm anticipated it going above $37 in the not too distant future, but at the same time I wanted to get more cheaper.. not at this $34.xx price  lol...


----------



## humble_pie

PMREdmonton said:


> I played this one with options - but a Jan 2013 put at 29.


oh i don't know edmonton. Last you talked here about your GG puts they were 37 puts, down from 40 puts but only at the last minute. And you had to be extremely helped to achieve that.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Yes, the original 40 puts I bought went South on me with the last collapse on Goldcorp stock prices. I then bought them back and extended as 37 puts into January. I think those puts are under water at the moment.

What I have been doing while waiting for the stock to recover is selling covered calls when they are showing some strength OTM by about 7% or so and or short duration. Then when the stock declines I buy it back and pocket the money so it is a form of hedge against downside. I have sold a 44 call, 42 call, 40 call all for around 80 cents. Each were bought back around 10-12 cents. Right now I have an August 37 call but if the stock continues to strengthen quicker than I expected I might end up buying back that call and pushing the strike price up a bit.

Right now I am only long about 400 shares it isn't a huge position in my portfolio. I still really do like the company and its long-term prospects. I do like that they strengthen everytime money printing seems to happen. I like that they have mines in low geopolitical risk. I like that they are one of the lowest cost producers. I like the team they have assembled to manage things. I like the expected growth in production. So there is a lot to like about this company but the last couple of months have been very trying.


----------



## humble_pie

but ... the 29 puts you mentioned you had "but" ... now was that bought or sold ...



> I played this one with options - but a Jan 2013 put at 29.


----------



## PMREdmonton

No, I am still holding the 29 puts for now. If the stock continues to go up and the price of those fall I will likely buy those back. Those puts are a long ways off so there is still a lot of time value in them. I don't think I will hold them to expiry as otherwise I'd be too levered to the overall downside risk of the stock should something horrible happen for too long of a period of time.


----------



## arc

Goldcorp is one of the best operators in gold mining, I can definitely see this stock heading back up to the 40s within a few months


----------



## PMREdmonton

They mostly just need the bad news to stop and for the market to remember they have a bunch of good mines that are about to come into full production mode.

The other reason I like them is between all the gold hoarding going on and all the money printing that is occurring and all the risk of sovereign defaults we have a perfect storm for gold and silver to start another leg up. That will eventually pull all the miners up with them that are into production phase of development. I hold onto some gold miners and silver miners mostly for this form of diversification in my portfolio. I just don't like the paper gold they hold in most of the ETFs and don't really believe it is worthwhile for me to hold onto physical gold. If the world deteriorates to the point that currencies are worthless I don't think the gold is going to do me all that much good anyways. I like the miners because I am levered to the upside, I get a dividend and I don't have to pay any fees to store bullion.

Right now I think the Juniors are probably a better play and I have been looking a bit into some companies there because of how devastated that sector has been over the past couple of years. It might make sense to play that one with the gold miner's junior ETF so that I'm not too stuck to the operational risk on any one of those miners. I do know there are a few juniors that seem to have good drilling results, good management and are in good geopolitical countries with lots of ongoing insider buying that are intriguing me.


----------



## Jon_Snow

This stock's performance today helped me post my single biggest daily gain as an investor.

Keep going Goldcorp, you sexy beast! Can it head into the $40's?


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Jon are you still holding? Great timing on your buy!


----------



## Kaitlyn

Ihatetaxes said:


> Jon are you still holding? Great timing on your buy!


When did Jon buy? I bought at $34.xx... wish I got in lower! Still a happy camper though. I too would like to see this creep into the 40s!


----------



## Plugging Along

I got in at $33 as an impulse buy. Now, I wish I bought more... I almost want to cash in and not get greedy, and then if it drops again, buy a little more. 

Anyone else thinking this?


----------



## Spudd

I bought in 3 tranches... $44, $38, and $34 (averaging down). I'm now in the green finally for the overall. I'm planning to hold as this is supposedly a period of seasonal strength for gold, and will look to sell in the new year.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Plugging Along said:


> I got in at $33 as an impulse buy. Now, I wish I bought more... I almost want to cash in and not get greedy, and then if it drops again, buy a little more.
> 
> Anyone else thinking this?



I've bought and sold 5 times this year and made money every time. Each time I held for between 6 days and one month. Should have kept the shares I paid $32.82 for a little longer!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Ihatetaxes said:


> 1. I've bought and sold 5 times this year and made money every time.
> 2. Should have kept the shares I paid $32.82 for a little longer!!!!!!!!!


1. Great! But I thought youhatetaxes. I still remember when you asked me about taxes when I was selling something.  

I mostly held & DCA'd G, but for volume purposes, traded other less expensive gold companies like El Dorado, and much more profitably I might add [though both have negative YTD returns].

2. Trick is recognizing near bottom-prices and never letting go; easier said than done, but not so impossible if you're not too greedy.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

I bought in a chunk at the 33-34 range to go with my 38s from months earlier. The annoying thing is I sold a few hundred shares of the 33s at 34 for another purchase I wanted to make. Didnt think it would climb back into 39 or 40 so rapidly...


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. Great! But I thought youhatetaxes. I still remember when you asked me about taxes when I was selling something.


All bought and sold inside my TFSA!!!!!!! No taxes baby!!!! :encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Yea, with that brainy username, that's definitely what I had thought! :biggrin:

Great minds think alike! :encouragement: [though I don't mind paying my share outside TFSA ofc].


----------



## Kaitlyn

Ihatetaxes said:


> All bought and sold inside my TFSA!!!!!!! No taxes baby!!!! :encouragement:


I also did TFSA - yay!  STILL hoping for bigger gains though...


----------



## Jon_Snow

I bought 2000 shares at around 34.50... And yeah, in hindsight should have gone with my gut and bought 3000. Oh well, I'm sitting on a pretty nice paper profit - and like PA, the temptation to lock in gains is a strong one.


----------



## Kaitlyn

Jon_Snow said:


> I bought 2000 shares at around 34.50... And yeah, in hindsight should have gone with my gut and bought 3000. Oh well, I'm sitting on a pretty nice paper profit - and like PA, the temptation to lock in gains is a strong one.


I only dream of buying 2,000 shares! I bought 1/10 of that instead!


----------



## arc

I setup a straddle today instead of buying the shares, I think there's significant risk with gold mining stocks heading into Sept. It's a good company but there's indication that QE3 may not happen in the fall and the bond buying may fall through as well. We could easily see the same issue in Q2 in Q3...a 10% drop


----------



## Jon_Snow

I was close to selling my shares this morning.... Thankfully I didn't... This thing just took off again this afternoon.

Goldcorp: the gift that keeps on giving.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Gold stocks are up; you know why, don't you?


----------



## Jon_Snow

Been busy working on a new highway project here in Van... Haven't been able to catch any financial news.... Please, enlighten me.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Ah, possible incoming QE3 incoming... gotcha.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Remember, _buy the rumor, sell the news_ 
QE-III is going to be a disappointment, either upon announcement or soon thereafter.


----------



## Kaitlyn

Jon_Snow said:


> Ah, possible incoming QE3 incoming... gotcha.





HaroldCrump said:


> Remember, _buy the rumor, sell the news_
> QE-III is going to be a disappointment, either upon announcement or soon thereafter.


Are you guys implying its time to get out?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Jon_Snow said:


> Ah, possible incoming QE3 incoming... gotcha.


That's right!

It was amusing to see the price charts and how all the stocks jumped at about the same time.


----------



## blin10

nothing to do with qe3 (if that was the case it would be going up with spx), it's pure technicals, it popped above 100 and 200 ma(daily) on a nice volume and above all major moving averages.. if it clears resistance over 163(gld) it might have some nice run



Jon_Snow said:


> Ah, possible incoming QE3 incoming... gotcha.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The Fed Minutes release this afternoon had nothing to do with the stocks jumping?

Take a look where your stocks were before and after 2 p.m. and tell me it was all 'pure technicals'.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> Take a look where your stocks were before and after 2 p.m. and tell me it was all 'pure technicals'.


Yep, look at the silver stocks as well before and after 2:00 pm.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Yep, was the case with a lot of stocks!

Blin10 will be happy with the 'pure & visible technical uptrend' of 2day as well. :encouragement:


----------



## blin10

1 day don't mean a thing, compare gld to spy for year to date, gold is up 22% while spy down 10%.. 



Toronto.gal said:


> The Fed Minutes release this afternoon had nothing to do with the stocks jumping?
> 
> Take a look where your stocks were before and after 2 p.m. and tell me it was all 'pure technicals'.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Hmmm, I don't think you understood me blin, but that's fine. :wink:


----------



## blin10

yah i probably didn't, either way G is going up 


Toronto.gal said:


> Hmmm, I don't think you understood me blin, but that's fine. :wink:


----------



## Jon_Snow

Sitting on a 15k profit on my 2000 shares of G. Question is, do I sell, or hang on for yet more gains, or buy a few thousand more shares?


----------



## Plugging Along

I am debating the same thing. I have less shares than you, but am debating of selling to lock in some profits, and then rebuying when (if) it dips, and or just buying more. 

What are the odds of it taking a little dip.


----------



## Kaitlyn

IF only I had the 2,000 shares... 1/10 instead


----------



## zylon

*Goldcorp has largest weighting in HUI - according to Wiki*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HUI_Gold_Index

The pros sell partial positions into strength (take profits);
and buy partial positions on weakness.

This could be the beginning of the 4th major rally in 12 years.
I'll be taking profits when I have them;
but holding some for the big run. :smilet-digitalpoint










Image source: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt090712.html


----------



## Plugging Along

Hmmmm... anyone else with a crystal ball...

I would like to sell some, but unfortanely I don't feel I have enough to sell a partial position.


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Interestingly, their chart looks very similar to ABX.TO however I think Barrick has more upside from a share price perspective. If I were you and decided to sell GG, I would get into ABX.TO.


----------



## zylon

I've noticed a lot of folks on this forum denigrate the use of charting. For me, they're not a prediction of future events, but a quick visual presentation of where we are. Here is a "CandleGlance" I refer to often in the PM sector:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/c...,SVM.TO,SLW.TO,CEF/A.TO,ZJG.TO,gld,GDX,GDXJ|B

A few recent gaps in price on the way up (G being one), and the sharp rise above the 50 day average ... you don't need no stinkin' balls of any material you care to name, to see that it can't continue forever.

Today (Sep 7) the author of the chart in post #218 issued a somewhat strong "book profits" message for PM stocks. "_Book profits_" is *not* to be interpreted as meaning that "_it's over - tout à fait fini_". *Non!*


----------



## Jon_Snow

500 ABX. Let's hope gold continues It's run for a while longer until the fed plays it's hand.


----------



## blin10

snow i like your style  just be careful with positions that big in one shot


----------



## Islenska

My plan has always been to grab a profit.
So sorta day-trading I' ll buy GG at $40 and put in a sell at $41.
Trouble is greed factors in and shoulda hung on to $42
Best to have a strict game plan and stick to it, doesn't always work but a day like yesterday gives you a boost, like finding a batch of lake trout before the weather turns------reel them in!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Held onto all my G and ABX and Big Ben came through.. Needless to say Jon Snow is a happy man.


----------



## blin10

dude go buy that m5 now and put a license plate "goldcorp"


----------



## dave2012

Ben did indeed make us Gold Corp shareholders pretty happy today. Well actually pretty much any US stock holders. Besides GG being up 5.46% today, Other US stocks in my portfolio did well including SLV up 4.35%, PM up 4.02%, DHI up 3.5% and of course APPL at an all time high. Slightly offset mind you since the US dollar is off about .73%.


----------



## Jon_Snow

blin10 said:


> dude go buy that m5 now and put a license plate "goldcorp"



Not sure about an M5 (I'm partial to Audi) but a few more days like this and I might have to treat myself to a nice new set of wheels. :biggrin:


----------



## Betzy

Thread kind of went to sleep with the fall of G price, anyone buying at these levels?


----------



## thenegotiator

Betzy said:


> Thread kind of went to sleep with the fall of G price, anyone buying at these levels?


i am not


----------



## KaeJS

I traded it this morning between 10am - 11am and made a small profit.

I'm out now. Looking to get back in soon.


----------



## sensfan15

Wow. So no one can say I have not been patient with this one! I bought back earlier this year at 46.88 and rode it down to the 31-32 range and then rode it back up to the 45-46 range still holding. Now were back down to 35. I thought it was a good buy at the time but clearly I was wrong. 

Will continue to hold and collect my $7.00 a month dividend and pray it can pop above 50 sometime (hopefully) in 2013. Although i'm not holding my breath I may have to wait longer than that:hopelessness:


----------



## Homerhomer

Goldcorp is not a long term buy and hold, you really need to trade it.
I will start buying again in the 34 range.


----------



## Toronto.gal

sensfan15 said:


> 1. Wow. So no one can say I have not been patient with this one! I bought at 46.88 and rode it down to the 31-32 range..
> 2. and then rode it back up to the 45-46 range still holding.
> 3. Will continue to hold and collect my $7.00 a month dividend and pray it can pop above 50 sometime


*1.* Wow indeed! :biggrin:

Did you buy this for long-term? If so, was it a high # of shares all at once? If not, why did you not buy more when it fell over 30%? Was it because you did not have money/because you thought it would go lower than $30?/because you did not want to pay additional [high?] trading commission? Did you not think at $30+ that it was good value if you had initially bought at $46.88?

*2.* You realize that you could have made a profit when it rose 30%, but instead: a) you made $0; b) are still down about -20%, and c) you will have to recover the 20% first before you'll see any profit [unless u count the dividends]. :hopelessness: 

When the stock dropped 30%+, you could have either: a) averaged down your shares, and hence been able to exit sooner, or b) you could simply have sold a lower tranche. For example:

- had you bought additional 50 shares at $32, you could have made $400 by having sold those 50 shares at $40,
- then you could have subtracted the profit from your original investment, 
- for example, if you had originally invested $2,344 [50 sh at $46.88], then the $400 profit would have lowered your original investment to $1,974 [assumed $30 commission for the 2 buys and i sell, ie: $2,344 + $30 - $400 = $1,974].

*3.* Don't console yourself with a dividend comparable to what a simple savings account/GIC would have given you risk-free, but rather, find ways to benefit when the markets go down and up. You did neither.

As Homerhomer said, certain stocks are not for buy & hold, and patience won't mean anything in such a case, except dead money for you! If you want to hold, pray & wait, then buy banks, at least there you'll get a nice dividend.

Compare the potential $400 you could have made with a single small trade vs. the $7 monthly dividend.

*edit:* never mind my question about how many shares you purchased, as I figured the answer with the $7 monthly dividend info.


----------



## PuckiTwo

Thank you T.Gal - that was a super top learning tip. P.


----------



## KaeJS

Bought some G.TO at $35.15 today. A little high...


----------



## arc

KaeJS said:


> Bought some G.TO at $35.15 today. A little high...


Personally I stopped doing equity trades with G. It's far more profitable and less risky to do option trades. The straddle I set up in Oct yielded 45% gain.


----------



## arc

But regardless, G is a good value stock for the long run.


----------



## Homerhomer

Just bought a bit of it right now at 34.66, will add more if it goes down to 31-32 range.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sorry guys, I guess I'll be semi off-topic, but I went for the highest loser: AUY @ $16.33.


----------



## Axcell

Bought some G.TO at 34.87 today as well. Half of my normal position size, I anticipate averaging down. But it's a good entry.


----------



## maxandrelax

Toronto.gal said:


> Sorry guys, I guess I'll be semi off-topic, but I went for the highest loser: AUY @ $16.33.


Why not YRI.TO? (AUY is the American listing) I'm a little peeved I wasn't a little more agile when the trend turned down. In Yomomma since $15.5

Prob. should hold some G as well.


----------



## Toronto.gal

maxandrelax said:


> Why not YRI.TO? (AUY is the American listing)


Yes, I know AUY is the US listing. 

I don't limit myself to just the TSE, not even for CDN companies. I trade in both exchanges for various reasons: higher volume/sometimes I have more $USD available/some CDN companies pay its dividend in USD, etc.


----------



## Ag Driver

I averaged $39.446 . Might have bought a bit early, but I'm hoping to hold until it hits 45.00 for just over a 10% gain including commissions, not including dividends.


----------



## Axcell

Anybody buying at these levels today?


----------



## zylon

*Goldcorp is not on my list of things to own;
and I have no idea what to make of Morningstar's Take.
Perhaps someone can shed some light?*










*Incidentally, Casey Research considers GG anywhere under US $38 to be a good entry point (first tranche).*


----------



## KaeJS

The bigger question is why _wouldn't_ you buy Goldcorp?

That thing is so volatile, it's basically free money.


----------



## dogcom

Not Goldcorp but yes gold miners ETF's that hold Goldcorp. Keep in mind this could be the washout of this decade for no great reason. Back in 2008 the selloff was to raise any money possible to pay back redemptions and margin calls everywhere. This time it is about keeping people away from gold which is dead money to the Fed and into other investments, to move the economy forward the way the Fed wants it in my opinion. This is an epic battle taking place between worthless paper money and precious metals. Confidence in paper money must be kept up at all costs or runaway inflation will take place.

To you and me however whether we believe this or not doesn't matter so having gold as insurance and buying cheap and trading the gold stocks is the only way go. You need a core position being the insurance and then you trade knowing it will be a very difficult thing to do.


----------



## Axcell

zylon said:


> *Goldcorp is not on my list of things to own;
> and I have no idea what to make of Morningstar's Take.
> Perhaps someone can shed some light?*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Incidentally, Casey Research considers GG anywhere under US $38 to be a good entry point (first tranche).*


Analysts are a bunch of jokers. Examples from 2012 to prove this: RIM and Facebook. I have to agree with KaeJS on this one. Goldcorp is one of those volatile stocks that makes a good swing trade.


----------



## dogcom

I am also thinking of adding a little silver as it is oversold and Friday was hammer time and for gold it was hammer time as well. 

http://www.safehaven.com/article/28286/silver-market-update

http://www.safehaven.com/article/28287/gold-market-update

I like the gold stocks on the gold side and would like to add silver itself on the silver side. Things may still get ugly if a major deflation event surfaces like 2008 otherwise I think we have a buy here.


----------



## maxandrelax

KaeJS said:


> The bigger question is why _wouldn't_ you buy Goldcorp?
> 
> That thing is so volatile, it's basically free money.


So is the buy here, or will it go back to the $33 support?


----------



## maxandrelax

So true. 



dogcom said:


> Not Goldcorp but yes gold miners ETF's that hold Goldcorp. Keep in mind this could be the washout of this decade for no great reason. Back in 2008 the selloff was to raise any money possible to pay back redemptions and margin calls everywhere. This time it is about keeping people away from gold which is dead money to the Fed and into other investments, to move the economy forward the way the Fed wants it in my opinion. This is an epic battle taking place between worthless paper money and precious metals. Confidence in paper money must be kept up at all costs or runaway inflation will take place.
> 
> To you and me however whether we believe this or not doesn't matter so having gold as insurance and buying cheap and trading the gold stocks is the only way go. You need a core position being the insurance and then you trade knowing it will be a very difficult thing to do.


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Bought GG yesterday, up 2.5% today.


----------



## Axcell

Doubled my stake at the open.  Going to ride the wave up!


----------



## maxandrelax

Going to take a nibble on Monday. Looking to cross the 50 day with some good volume.


----------



## maxandrelax

NO NIBBLES WERE TAKEN! Waiting for a better sign.


----------



## Ag Driver

With gold at a 9 month low, and Goldcorp recently hitting below it's 52 week low with a downward trend. I am getting ready to re position and do some dollar cost averaging. How soon is too soon? Has it hit bottom yet??


----------



## arc

@Ag Driver, use a straddle strategy, I've been doing this since last year and have made 20% year to date.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I bought Goldcorp on May 8 last year for $34.75 and sold it on June 10 for $41.35. I wonder if history could repeat itself this year... :biggrin:


----------



## Loon

It's down another almost 4% today, to 30.34. Looks like it hasn't been this low since 2008. Can this be a buy and hold stock? I'm tempted to buy it, maybe sell if any quick profits can be had but otherwise hold. Is anyone buying today?


----------



## Homerhomer

This is not a buy and hold stock ;-)
I put a limit order to average down.

I never thought I would see ABX at these levels, but this company is plaqued with it's own problems beside gold, not buying that one yet.


----------



## Ag Driver

I did end up dollar cost averaging the other day from 39.44, down to 34.82. I'm half temped to re-position again to a nice round 100 shares, which would bring me down to 32.66 including commission.

Arc, I'm still new to the game and need to do a lot more reading about Options. Thanks for the advice and something to read about! It's been fun learning so far!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Homerhomer said:


> 1. This is not a buy and hold stock ;-)
> 
> 2. I never thought I would see ABX at these levels, but this company is plaqued with it's own problems beside gold, not buying that one yet.


1. Definitely not! 
2. I was just saying that in another thread, about not believing current prices.

HP was mentioning yesterday [and before] about the legal problems with the Pascua Lama MEGAMINE, not to mention costs, which we have known about for years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-chile-barrick-pascualama-idUSBRE93915J20130410


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I bought 200 shares at 30.29.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Just picked up more at $30.15
Had to come back to the forum to see what others thought of G. Sorry I have been gone for so long


----------



## Homerhomer

Homerhomer said:


> I put a limit order to average down.
> 
> .


Good thing it didn't get filled, I will be buying a bit today for cheaper.


----------



## Homerhomer

Homerhomer said:


> I never thought I would see ABX at these levels, but this company is plaqued with it's own problems beside gold, not buying that one yet.


Ohh my, another 5% down today, this carnage has to stop somewhere, with 4% yield it is becaming very tempting.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Ihatetaxes said:


> I bought 200 shares at 30.29.


 SOOOO glad I sold this one in May. Down to half its 52 week high today.


----------



## killuminati

Gold looks like it will makes some moves up now after the Bernanke comments. What do you guys think, it was around 30-31 before the rumors came in that the taps were going to be shut.


----------



## Ag Driver

As you can see, I have been holding off on re-positioning and watching gold fall further and further. I'm looking at adding to my position around the $26.50 mark. Right now I am averaging $34.821 and if I do get my target price this would put me at $30.66 which is below the 52 week average. Any thoughts on this game plan? How low can this baby go?


----------



## Ag Driver

I jumped in early at $27.07 -- Hopefully I didn't jump the gun too early! This puts me at $31.14, which I think is a good position.


----------



## daddybigbucks

Goldcorp is at 52 week low ($22.14)due to depressed gold prices.
Last two quarters were dismal.

From last quarter report " Costs were $992 per ounce of gold on an all-in sustaining basis, $551 per ounce on a by-product basis and $706 per ounce on a co-product basis. "

I assume that means they are only making (POG=$1221-$992=)$200 per ounce? 
as opposed to $600 per ounce last quarter when Gold prices were $1600.

anyone looking to get shares or is patience the key?


----------



## al42

I've been averaging down for a bit now but getting clobbered in the process.


----------



## JordoR

I've also been getting beat up at Goldcorp, but unfortunately I don't have anything available to average down with.
Most mining stocks are actually at their 52 week lows right now, it has not been a good year or especially quarter in general.

I suspect things will pick up in the new year, or maybe after Q1 2014.


----------



## Celso

Don´t post much, but i have a few shares in Osisko and i was wondering how this news affects me, apart from being up 18% (31%overall) this morning. 
This is one of the stocks that has surprised me with its sudden jump and I wonder if i should get out now with a decent return. Any opinions from seasoned members?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/goldcorp-launches-26-billion-bid-for-osisko-mining/article16294970/


----------



## Toronto.gal

Celso said:


> 1. Don´t post much
> 2. have a few shares in Osisko...*up 18% (31%overall)* this morning.
> 3. one of the stocks that has surprised me with its sudden jump.....


*1.* Then u don't deserve help. Kidding. 
*2.* Congratulations! I was expecting the takeovers in this sector!

*3.* What surprised you, the takeover offer, or the increase in share price? If the latter, that is not surprising, including the fact that the share price of the acquirer goes down [as it does in most cases for obvious reasons].

The premium offered is 15% from Friday's closing, which is cheap as the article points out, and since you own OSK, you should have an idea about that, but considering gold prices, G's opportunism, isn't surprising in the least. However, if I was up 31% in a gold stock, I would sell, especially that at this time, I'm not interested in owning the big miners/acquirers, just the smaller ones. 

OSK is up only about 4% above the offer price, so what does that tell you? Do you think others might make a higher offer? It's possible, but who at the moment could make a better offer for this large deal? As the announcement is fresh, you could wait a few more days before making a decision. 

Keep in mind that if the deal were to be rejected, shares would most likely drop [though not always the case]. Also, if you wanted to own G, you could always buy those shares at a later time. I typically prefer simpler cash only offers, but that's just me.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Playing out as expected.

Goldcorp claims Osisko ‘continually’ refused to entertain takeover bids/Osisko Mining Corporation responds to unsolicited proposal from Goldcorp inc.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/busi...ed+entertain+takeover+bids/9385715/story.html
http://www.osisko.com/2014/01/osisk...ds-to-unsolicited-proposal-from-goldcorp-inc/


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I hadn't looked at Goldcorp stock in a long time and man its been brutalized. Sold my last shares in August 2012 for $37.05. Lucky timing and just part of my move to eliminate most individual stocks that year. I had bought and sold this stock many times in 2011 and 2012 and always made money.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I last bought/sold G in the $40's, in 2012 also I believe, and making minimal profits with it. Since then, I have only owned/traded small & mid-cap stocks. 

While hard for some gold haters to believe, I have made very nice profits trading gold in 2013.


----------



## gibor365

What do you think about future of Goldcorp and generally gold miners or GDX?
I hold a little bit TD Precious Metals MF.... last couple if years it's going down and down... don't know what to do with it.... was thinking maybe to sell this MF and buy instead ETF exposed to miners like GDX/XGD or XMA, but those not performing much better


----------



## fatcat

I see G on a few "stocks to own for 2014" lists ....


----------



## Killer Z

Gibor, I started a thread not too long ago that might assist with your inquiry:

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showt...-Metals-Fund-(CIB497)-and-Gold-Silver-related

After receiving a variety of great advice from the CMF brain trust, I chose to sell my fund and transition what was left into 4 stocks (which included Goldcorp) .......I decided against XGD and XMA because I wanted to avoid the less desirables that they both hold (common problem with a lot of ETFs). Best of luck!


----------



## underemployedactor

Lots of good info in the thread Killer started. Further to that, and granted ETFs and MFs aren't really my bag, I would suggest that PM miners in particular need to be picked through and sorted very carefully. Though a rising bullion price tide will lift all boats, a flat or declining bullion price will sink a lot of ships. Good management is really key, I think in this sector. All four companies that Killer settled on in the referred thread are excellent choices IMO if you want to be in that space. G and BTO are still my favourites, and BTO looks to be ramping up production in the next couple of years to take them over the magic 500K ounces, which would turn them into a prime takeover target, I think. So yeah, I wouldn't really want the PM MF. I'd rather have a couple of well chosen companies.


----------



## gibor365

ReTDBad the other thread and 4 stocks Killez selected looks as not bad selection.... I just compared performance of TD Precious metals MF vs SLW and 1year, 6 months, 3 months - they perform identically.....
4 precious metal stocks are too many for me....maybe it's better exposure to gold -> Goldcorp, and to silver -> SLW ? or just go with XMA?
btw, what is SLW dividend policy? Every Q they pay different amount....


----------



## underemployedactor

Well, SLW isn't a miner, it's a precious metal streaming company. Listen, if you're happy with your PM MF stick with it, but in this space I would prefer to choose my own individual companies.


----------



## gibor365

underemployedactor said:


> Well, SLW isn't a miner, it's a precious metal streaming company. Listen, if you're happy with your PM MF stick with it, but in this space I would prefer to choose my own individual companies.


If I would be happy, I wouldn't ask this question


----------



## Synergy

gibor said:


> What do you think about future of Goldcorp and generally gold miners or GDX?
> I hold a little bit TD Precious Metals MF.... last couple if years it's going down and down... don't know what to do with it.... was thinking maybe to sell this MF and buy instead ETF exposed to miners like GDX/XGD or XMA, but those not performing much better


I like holding the basket of gold miners - currently sticking with XGD. I'm considering G for my non-reg account, I'd like to accumulate some additional US $'s. I like the fact that I can hold the stock in CDN $'s and journal the shares over to my US account so I can accumulate the dividends. I sold most of my index funds at the end of last year so I don't mind having a little gold exposure now - especially at these levels.


----------



## gibor365

Synergy said:


> I like holding the basket of gold miners - currently sticking with XGD.


I checked XGD and didn't like it performance at all.... if greatly under performing XMA and other couple of stock I was considering and even MF I hold now


----------



## Synergy

gibor said:


> I checked XGD and didn't like it performance at all.... if greatly under performing XMA and other couple of stock I was considering and even MF I hold now


XMA is not a fair comparison performance wise - that's a materials index with stocks such as POT, TCK, etc. One of the reasons why I purchased XGD in Oct and Dec of 2013 was secondary to the large drop in gold pricing and the subsequent value I seen within some of the miners - that is as long as gold prices eventually start to climb! I wanted a pure gold play without stocks that I already hold such as POT, etc. And as you know, past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future )

Why not replicate the materials index by picking a few gold miners and a few material stocks? If you're willing to spend the time, going forward you could make some nice gains.


----------



## JordoR

I sold all my positions for a nice profit prior to the earnings report today, as I knew it would be bad. 

However, they missed Q4 EPS by 13c (0.09 compared to 0.022) and reported a 1.1 billion loss - and they are up 2.2% today. Don't understand why they wouldn't be tanking as I expected.


----------



## daddybigbucks

JordoR said:


> I sold all my positions for a nice profit prior to the earnings report today, as I knew it would be bad.
> 
> However, they missed Q4 EPS by 13c (0.09 compared to 0.022) and reported a 1.1 billion loss - and they are up 2.2% today. Don't understand why they wouldn't be tanking as I expected.


alot of factors.
most investors are long term investors so if the forward progress is still there, they wont be selling. And if no one is selling the only place to go is up.

its the perception that gold hit the low and will rebound so investors (myself included) are buying back into gold.

but hey, you made a nice profit so its a win-win.


----------



## atrp2biz

It's all about relativity. Most the loss is due to impairment of reserves. If impairment is less than expected, it means all in cost of production is less than what was expected which will improve margins going forward. ABX was in the same boat today and saw a nice 6% jump.


----------



## Ag Driver

It has been a red year for me and G.TO, I have finally broke into the Green again. I still like this as a long term divvy play and will continue to hold. I wanted to load up when it hit 22, but I didn't have the funds at the time to do so. Did anyone top up at 22? Not that I care overly much about the big swings, but it is nice to see green again.


----------



## Synergy

Big drop today from their earnings miss



> Goldcorp Inc. reported weaker-than-expected third quarter earnings on Thursday as costs increased, production volumes disappointed and the company dealt with pit wall stability issues at its El Sauzal mine in Mexico.


http://business.financialpost.com/2...r-than-expected-q3-results-as-costs-increase/

Anybody buying - contrarion purchase? Yielding over 3% and paying out it's distributions in US$'s. I'd like to buy some and journal it over to my US$ side of my non-registered account. Just a little hesitant to buy into gold at this point in time.


----------



## GOB

Gold miners are getting absolutely obliterated, far more than gold itself. I'm looking to load up for the longer term but I have no idea where the bottom is.


----------



## Ag Driver

Wow. Very tempted.


----------



## dubmac

Goldcorp has low production costs - something like 6-700 per oz. Apparently, China, India and other countries that buy alot of gold are their biggest buyers of gold
But ... they have negative earnings, and...WHY the drop?? Wish I knew. I have been watching this one for some time....and I am tempted to buy. The other one I'm watching is ZJG...it too is at a yr low!


----------



## GOB

Got in at $19.87. Wish I woke up earlier!


----------



## humble_pie

faire fi à toute prudence ... _pas_


----------



## doctrine

Goldcorp's production costs are more than $1000/oz, not $600-700. If they had a 50% net margin, they wouldn't be trading at a 6 year low. I don't even think they're cheap at the moment. They lost $44M on $859M of revenue. And they continue to ramp up new mines!


----------



## fatcat

doctrine said:


> Goldcorp's production costs are more than $1000/oz, not $600-700. If they had a 50% net margin, they wouldn't be trading at a 6 year low. I don't even think they're cheap at the moment. They lost $44M on $859M of revenue. *And they continue to ramp up new mines!*


that caught my eye, they are trying to get costs down to 950 ... trying ... gold is knocking on 1150 and they are ramping up to try and meet production quotas ... will someone tell me what the non-goldbug bull case for gold is in the present economy ?


----------



## GOB

The bull case is a long term one. Unless deflation is here to stay a la Japan (in which case all equities will be screwed), the price of gold will necessarily go higher. I got into a quality miner at a price I wouldn't have expected to get. That's not to say it won't go lower, or it will start recovering immediately, but I wanted to get a small initial position in.

Things can change in a hurry. We've gone from people panicking about a crash to more all time highs in a matter of two weeks. I want to get some gold exposure in case it turns around faster than expected. If not, I'm happy to sit on it for a long time.


----------



## dubmac

Morningstar's analysts updated their report on G-T yesterday...Oct 31. (Kristoffer Inton, 31 October 2014). I messed up on the production costs estimate in my mesage upthread..sorry.

....Despite the production weakness the company endured in the quarter, we think Goldcorp’s longer-term growth remains intact. Furthermore, despite the lower than expected production during the quarter, Goldcorp reiterated its prior guidance for 2.95 to 3.10 million ounces on the year, supported by strong fourth quarter volumes. Costs remain under control, as year-to-date all-in sustaining costs of USD 918 per ounce keep the company below its guidance of USD 950 to USD 1,000per ounce for the full-year. Our long term outlook remains largely unchanged. After updating our model to reflect the current gold spot price (roughly USD 90 per ounce lower than our last update), we’ve lowered our fair value estimate to USD 26 per share from $27 per share. We are maintaining our no moat rating.nalysts updated their report on G-T.

Also...from mornigstar...
Bulls Say
OGoldcorp exhibits an attractive growth profile combined with low production costs.
OGoldcorp’s capital expenditures should fall in the next few years and free cash flow should improve as the company completes sizable development projects.
OGold companies tend not to follow general economic cycles. They can also provide a hedge to inflation risk.

Bears Say
OGoldcorp has relied on growth through acquisition, which exposes the company to risk of overpaying for assets.
OGoldcorp’s historical geographic preference for the Americas has sometimes led to stiff competition for attractive acquisition targets.
OInvestors looking for gold exposure can skirt company-specific risk by investing in gold-backed exchange-traded funds.


----------



## fatcat

IF the gold price starts to approach 1100 and dips below i think 1000 or less is a distinct possibility since i think we are firmly in the grip of deflation
the rampant inflation that the bulls dream about is nowhere to be seen

i just think that 950 dollar gold is more likely than 1500 gold in the next 24 months so it is a long hold for the future
though, in the case of G, they pay a decent dividend which might get raised (or cut)

i just don't understand why they aren't shutting some mines down and concentrating on cost cutting and working their more efficient operations and trying to produce 850 dollar gold rather than meet high production goals


----------



## james4beach

fatcat said:


> the rampant inflation that the bulls dream about is nowhere to be seen


I'm with you, fatcat. At least from what I see today. I'm not one of these people who says commodities are manipulated. I think they're telling us something very real and noteworthy, so I believe the pricing of oil, gold, and metals, etc.

There has been no rampant inflation. It certainly may come, but hasn't yet. Personally I think the stock market will likely succumb to the same force that commodities experienced. (Namely: global economic slowdown and lack of growth, despite insane money printing and Chinese credit pumping)

I'm one of those oddballs who doesn't mind the 2.5% to 3.0% that I make in GICs or the 2% yields of my government bonds. One might say I'm positioned for deflation and deleveraging.


----------



## lonewolf

For years the trend was to make factories faster & more efficient now the baby boomers are past peak spending with their houses over following with clutter.


----------



## Synergy

lonewolf said:


> For years the trend was to make factories faster & more efficient now the baby boomers are past peak spending with their houses over following with clutter.


That's why we have garage sales - to spread our stuff around :biggrin:


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> IF the gold price starts to approach 1100 and dips below i think 1000 or less is a distinct possibility since i think we are firmly in the grip of deflation
> the rampant inflation that the bulls dream about is nowhere to be seen
> 
> i just think that 950 dollar gold is more likely than 1500 gold in the next 24 months so it is a long hold for the future
> though, in the case of G, they pay a decent dividend which might get raised (or cut)
> 
> i just don't understand why they aren't shutting some mines down and concentrating on cost cutting and working their more efficient operations and trying to produce 850 dollar gold rather than meet high production goals


It takes a lot of time, money and resources to shut down a mine, put it into care and maintenance and then start it back up. It would be a knee-jerk reaction to a drop in the price of gold that may (or may not) be temporary. You don't just immediately shut down all your production because the gold price has dropped. As dubmac stated, the AISC is under $1000 which is excellent and still profitable. 

Considering the strength of Goldcorp's capital structure, I would hope in addition to cost cutting that they be on the lookout for acquisitions for future production that they can get for pennies on the dollar. It is an absolute bloodbath right now, and good companies are trading for way below intrinsic value. 

24 months is nothing. I'm happy to hold for much longer than that. I don't pretend to know when the bottom in gold or G is, so I have a partial position and am ready to buy more if/when the time comes.


----------



## GOB

james4beach said:


> I'm with you, fatcat. At least from what I see today. I'm not one of these people who says commodities are manipulated. I think they're telling us something very real and noteworthy, so *I believe the pricing of oil, gold, and metals, etc.*
> 
> There has been no rampant inflation. It certainly may come, but hasn't yet. Personally I think the stock market will likely succumb to the same force that commodities experienced. (Namely: global economic slowdown and lack of growth, despite insane money printing and Chinese credit pumping)
> 
> I'm one of those oddballs who doesn't mind the 2.5% to 3.0% that I make in GICs or the 2% yields of my government bonds. One might say I'm positioned for deflation and deleveraging.



So did you believe something different when oil was at $150 or when gold almost doubled in two years and hit $1900?


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> So did you believe something different when oil was at $150 or when gold almost doubled in two years and hit $1900?


this is the problem with both assets ... they go from 70 to 150 and back again

gold is so difficult to value .. at least with oil you have reliable signals to parse (difficult though that may be)
gold is a black hole of information

i don't doubt that gold will hit 2000, the question is when ?

in the meantime i can buy a railroad or johnson and johnson and i have some signposts along the way about whether my money is well spent

gold appeals to the gambler in all of us including me

count me in when it hits say 950 ... if it pops to 1400 and never looks back ... c'est la vie


----------



## james4beach

GOB said:


> So did you believe something different when oil was at $150 or when gold almost doubled in two years and hit $1900?


Back at those highs of these commodities, I thought (as many people did) that the Fed may have ignited a run-away inflation. Since then the evidence (not just commodities but many other things) seems to suggest, instead, that the central banks are barely able to fight the persistent deflationary forces. All it seems they're capable of doing is sparking asset price inflation in stocks and bonds. Everywhere else, there barely seems to be any effect of the money printing... no economic growth, certainly.


----------



## dubmac

fatcat said:


> gold appeals to the gambler in all of us including me


For the most part I have avoided buying gold - I made a little on XGD, and lost some on CEF.A. As fatcat suggests -gold is highly speculative. 
I'm wary because I really don't understand how gold is priced - it seems to be priced based on fear, euphoria, and the whim of cash-starved governments. Unlike oil and most anything else, it seems to me an utterly useless metal. As the morningstar analyst says "Gold companies tend not to follow general economic cycles."


----------



## james4beach

Gold (bullion) is no more speculative than stock indices in general. Gold and mining stocks on the other hand... very volatile


----------



## fatcat

dubmac said:


> For the most part I have avoided buying gold - I made a little on XGD, and lost some on CEF.A. As fatcat suggests -gold is highly speculative.
> I'm wary because I really don't understand how gold is priced - it seems to be priced based on fear, euphoria, and the whim of cash-starved governments. Unlike oil and most anything else, it seems to me an utterly useless metal. As the morningstar analyst says "Gold companies tend not to follow general economic cycles."


+1 from me .... i believe that much of investing is based on profoundly irrational ideas ... there are now so many metrics and so much disagreement over how to even price a stock, not to mention that many of the numbers companies put out are just wrong or misleading and designed to make them look good since it easy to find ways to shape your numbers

but gold is in its own category for irrationality ... it is impossible to really value other than by a projection of your own fears and wishes


----------



## Synergy

fatcat said:


> +1 from me .... i believe that much of investing is based on profoundly irrational ideas ...


Fear, anxiety, greed, etc. It's a proverbial coin toss. Gold often does what you think it will do 50% of the time, while the other 50% of the time it does the opposite - interest rates, geopolitical events, inflation, etc. 

Having zero exposure to gold, gold miners, etc, since I don't own any index funds / ETF's, etc. I'm happy to play around with a little fun money every now and then. I've been lucky so far. If we get down to $1000 I'll be tempted to toss a few coins around. I agree with fatcat, at least for me, it's more of a gamble then true investing. It's hard to "invest" in something that doesn't make a whole lot of sense.


----------



## HaroldCrump

GOB said:


> The bull case is a long term one. Unless deflation is here to stay a la Japan (in which case all equities will be screwed), the price of gold will necessarily go higher.


Keep in mind that there are plausible scenarios where gold is priced lower in spite of economic growth in the US and other parts of the world.
Gold is priced in US dollars.
Right now, the US central bank is trying to cheapen the dollar, but they are not succeeding.
A cheaper USD means higher gold.

However, if economic growth kicks-in such a way that US becomes the driver of growth and manages to more or less retain the strength of the USD, gold will not go higher.
Like we had in the late 1990s and early 2000s, we could have over 4% growth in the US, a strong USD, and a gold price that is far lower than where it sits today.


----------



## fatcat

HaroldCrump said:


> Keep in mind that there are plausible scenarios where gold is priced lower in spite of economic growth in the US and other parts of the world.
> Gold is priced in US dollars.
> Right now, the US central bank is trying to cheapen the dollar, but they are not succeeding.
> A cheaper USD means higher gold.
> 
> However, if economic growth kicks-in such a way that US becomes the driver of growth and manages to more or less retain the strength of the USD, gold will not go higher.
> Like we had in the late 1990s and early 2000s, we could have over 4% growth in the US, a strong USD, and a gold price that is far lower than where it sits today.


+1 from me 

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2014/11/03/short-gold-citigroup/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_fof



> Strategists at Citigroup on Monday said that sour-looking charts augur more bearish price action for gold.
> 
> Jeremy Hale, a global macro strategist at Citigroup, is out with the report with a pithy but foreboding title: “Trade Ideas: Short Gold.”


as has been said in this thread, gold is volatile and irrational ... the exact same kinds of forces that took it to 1900 can also drive it to 800


----------



## GOB

No argument there from me. It can much lower than it is. My portfolio is only about 3% gold, mostly beaten up miners around these levels so I'm not worried either way.


----------



## Synergy

FWIW - Larry Berman (BNN) - Nov 3, 2014



> Gold Bottom. If gold stays below 1100 for 6 months, half the mine production in the world shuts down (so he has heard). He believes it could only go down here for spike and so now it is a great buying opportunity. He is nibbling here. We broke the double bottom and did not see a panic, so he sees this as a buying opportunity. It will be a great trading opportunity in the first half of next year.


I wouldn't be surprised it we see gold test the $1000 level at some point in the near future.


----------



## HaroldCrump

The US is throwing a bone to Japan & Europe.
It is letting Japan & Europe do Q/E to prop up their own economies.
In the meantime the US will take a break for a few months...and allow the Fed hawks to drop off, and doves to be nominated early next year.

Wait for signs of Q/E next year before buying gold...with massive Q/E in Japan and perfunctory noises being made by Draghi in Europe, the USD has nowhere to go but up & up...


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> For the most part I have avoided buying gold - I made a little on XGD, and lost some on CEF.A. As fatcat suggests -gold is highly speculative.
> I'm wary because I really don't understand how gold is priced - it seems to be priced based on fear, euphoria, and the whim of cash-starved governments. Unlike oil and most anything else, it seems to me an utterly useless metal. As the morningstar analyst says "Gold companies tend not to follow general economic cycles."



possibly in the works for barrick, as you suggested/predicted recently:

http://business.financialpost.com/2...ner-zijin-on-pascua-lama-investment-minister/


----------



## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> possibly in the works for barrick, as you suggested/predicted recently:
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/2...ner-zijin-on-pascua-lama-investment-minister/


thanks Pie. I wonder what this will do to the price of the ABX stock. Could jump a little, (but I doubt much).


----------



## fatcat

this is a situation much worse than the legendary drunken horse technical chart ...

gold is now in the dreaded vomiting camel pattern ...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102146167

this looks very bad for the yellow metal

wolfie, where do we go from here ?


----------



## james4beach

I don't see what's so confusing with gold. Just use the same logic as with the stock market.

Since all of these assets are guaranteed to go "up" long term, just buy it.

(This logic can't be applied to individual stocks, which most certainly can crash to zero. However, gold, stock indices, real estate can not)


----------



## GOB

Looks like the vomit has hit the floor, or am I misreading the chart...?:biggrin:


----------



## dubmac

james4beach said:


> I don't see what's so confusing with gold. Just use the same logic as with the stock market.
> 
> Since all of these assets are guaranteed to go "up" long term, just buy it.
> 
> (This logic can't be applied to individual stocks, which most certainly can crash to zero. However, gold, stock indices, real estate can not)


When you look at the attached chart which displays the price of gold from 1985 - 2014, you'll see that gold can go for a very long time without changing much in price. So the magic question is "Could we be returning to a situation like between 1985-2007?" 22 odd years is a long time to wait for "the good times" to return and your gold stocks to reawaken. Also - is this "the bottom" for gold? - certainly, attached graph suggests the floor could be much...further..........down.


----------



## GoldStone

james4beach said:


> just buy it


Yes.


----------



## humble_pie

.

"my little Blanche says the time to accumulate gold is coming up soon"

"i named mine Black Mac because he had a scottish father"

"at least you weren't running around with Pluto the dark planet"

"is that the one you fly to on the vomit comet?"

"yea, anti-gravity'll do that to a beast. But Blanche says she wants to know what you think about the charts for frankincense & myrrh"

"me, i'm getting into coffee. Those million dollar coffee beans in elephant poop have got to have a camel application."


----------



## PuckiTwo

fatcat said:


> gold is now in the dreaded vomiting camel pattern ...http://www.cnbc.com/id/102146167this looks very bad for the yellow metal





GOB said:


> Looks like the vomit has hit the floor, or am I misreading the chart...?:biggrin:


Too funny!!! Just finished a book on camel crossing the Sahara - doesn't sound as if staying close to the front..... or the rear is advisable.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I don't understand why there is confusion...gold is priced in US dollars.
Ergo, strong USD = lower nominal price for gold; weak USD = higher price of gold.

Gold is going up in price in countries that have recently weakening currencies, such as RUB and JPY (Russian Rubles & Japanese Yen).










and










To me, it is perfectly clear, folks - gold is not going up or down - it is the respective currencies that are going up or down.
What am I missing?


----------



## humble_pie

PuckiTwo said:


> ust finished a book on camel crossing the Sahara



speaking of crossing the sahara, here's a link to a stunning art video created 100% by a cmf member.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ZFxB73G8APc

i posted it once before, but the film is beyond gorgeous so here it is again. The camera is attached to the front of the lower right rear panier on his motorcycle. The low-slung perspective is a perfect approach to a parched land of pitiless sand & stone.


----------



## humble_pie

HaroldCrump said:


> I don't understand why there is confusion...gold is priced in US dollars.
> Ergo, strong USD = lower nominal price for gold; weak USD = higher price of gold ...
> 
> 
> To me, it is perfectly clear, folks - gold is not going up or down - it is the respective currencies that are going up or down.
> What am I missing?



nothing missing ... except ... could you possibly chart gold in CHF? also in CAD? the latter should be slightly more stable than USD as per rouble & yen ... would be grateful each:


----------



## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> nothing missing ... except ... could you possibly chart gold in CHF? also in CAD? the latter should be slightly more stable than USD as per rouble & yen ... would be grateful


Okay, here we go...

Gold in CHF vs. USD










Gold in CAD vs. USD










Regarding CHF, the referendum at the end of this month could have a material impact on that chart.
I believe current level of the Swiss central bank is 5%. That'd mean they need to quadruple their holdings to achieve the required 20% level, if the referendum is successful.


----------



## humble_pie

HaroldCrump said:


> Okay, here we go...
> 
> Gold in CHF vs. USD



i thought we were doing gold-in-CHF vs gold-in-USD, though? gold in chf vs usdx is less meaningful imho 

same thing for CAD ...


----------



## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> i thought we were doing gold-in-CHF vs gold-in-USD, though? gold in chf vs usdx is less meaningful imho
> same thing for CAD ...


Okay, sorry I thought you wanted to compare against USD.

Here we go:

Gold in CHF vs. gold in USD:










Gold in CAD vs. gold in USD:


----------



## humble_pie

an eyeful! thankx

HC i am a poor dumb crouton but if i understand you through my clouds of ignorance, you have been saying - in part - that we should look to USD as the driver, to washington & the fed in particular, to understand what is happening in commodities? prices of raw materials have been artificially forced down by the owners of the world's currently biggest economy?


----------



## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> HC i am a poor dumb crouton but if i understand you through my clouds of ignorance, you have been saying - in part - that we should look to USD as the driver, to washington & the fed in particular, to understand what is happening in commodities? prices of raw materials have been artificially forced down by the owners of the world's currently biggest economy?


Yes, so there are 3 - 4 key vertices of geo-political power - the US, China, and EU (actually, mainly Germany & France within that bloc).

The rest can be ignored for most purposes, incl. the UK, Japan, and most emerging economies like Brazil, India, etc.
Russia makes noises and sometimes takes desperate measures to be a global player, but without China, Russia is essentially isolated.

Anyhow, major shifts in commodities and asset classes are a game of see-saw among these 3 vertices.

Sometimes one is pushing some commodities or asset classes in one direction, while at other times someone else is pushing something else in another direction.

Both oil & gold have a unique position among commodities, as we know.

Regarding gold, it is in the interest of both China and the US to have a low price of gold at this time.
Not forever, but simply at this time.
Russia is on the opposite end of the spectrum.
Russia would like nothing better than for the price of gold to be $5,000 USD.

EU is hedged either way.
The top 4 EU countries have large stockpiles of gold - Italy, Spain, Germany, and France.
Most of the gold is stolen, but let's leave that aside.

They are also fully hedged with the USD through mutual swap agreements between the ECB and the Fed.

Plus, they have full backing of the IMF with the SDRs.

So, they are all set.

China is stock-piling gold and needs the price of gold to be low, much to the chagrin of its buddy Russia.
But Russia can't do anything about it at the moment, so must suffer through it.

The US also needs the price of gold to be low, in order to preserve its purchasing power i.e. the king dollar.
So, this works for everyone.
Various tools such as Q/E, negative interest rates, forward guidance, etc. are being used by all the 3 major players to serve these ends.

I believe this status quo will continue for a while.

As for oil, this is a short term move to shake out Russia.
Some believe that this is a unilateral move by Saudi Arabia to shake out the high cost US shale oil & gas producers.
But I don't believe this theory, for several reasons:

- Saudi cannot act unilaterally in the oil market against the wishes of the US of A, esp. at this time given what's going on with ISIS & Syria.
- Saudi must act in line with US wishes to avoid the US propping up Iran after recent nuclear deals.
- While Saudi may be the dominant member of OPEC, they cannot alienate everyone else
- Lastly, Saudi princes do not like to lose money, and at oil < $75, they are losing money.

Therefore, my conclusion is that this is a tactical move by US & Saudi to shake out crash Russia.
By their calculations, Russia cannot hold out for more than 6 months to 1 year at the most.
They have already depleted their forex reserves.
Debt rating has been cut to junk by S&P and Moody's.
All the USD they have been unloading since April is being bought out by the US via their Belgium based operations.
The US sees Russia's capitulation imminent.

As for other base commodities like copper, iron ore, coal, steel, etc. that is primarily the China slowdown story.
I do believe those commodities are/were overpriced to some extent.
We don't know how much China is going to slow down, or when.
We don't know whether the Chinese shadow banking system is going to implode, or when.
What we do know is that China has been keeping the price of global commodities high because of its wasted GDP i.e. creating ghost cities.
When will that correct, who knows?

If the China slowdown continues, we can't expect the prices of base commodities to rise any time soon.

Under normalized situations, that demand would have been offset by western governments undertaking massive infrastructure expansion projects.
Canada, US, UK, France, etc. everyone needs to refresh its infrastructure, which has not been refreshed in at least 3 - 4 decades - roads, bridges, ports, highways, rapid transit, etc.
But given the debt and deficit everywhere, no govt. is ready or able to do that.

So, I don't see any offsetting factor that can create more demand for commodities any time soon.


----------



## dubmac

wow...

so, to sum up, low gold prices for the foreseeable future because the US wants it that way, and China likes it too.
low oil prices until...well....until Russia crashes & burns. What are you suggesting when you write "The US sees Russia's capitulation imminent". How does Russia play a role in setting oil prices - are they stockpiling? (I thought that the Saudi's were behind the Oil price drop).


----------



## HaroldCrump

dubmac said:


> What are you suggesting when you write "The US sees Russia's capitulation imminent".
> How does Russia play a role in setting oil prices - are they stockpiling?
> (I thought that the Saudi's were behind the Oil price drop).


Correct - at this time, it is mainly Saudi Arabia that is refusing to cut production to push oil prices back up, which is its duty & responsibility as the primary OPEC member.
Therefore, it is going against the wishes of the other OPEC members, esp. Venezuela.
Which is why I think it is doing so only with the full backing & sponsorship of the US (or maybe even at the behest of the US).

I don't have any proof, of course, and it's not possible to prove this.
Just bits and pieces of news, statements, innuendos, etc. gathered from news articles.

Most of the mainstream media is of the opinion that the Saudis are acting unilaterally to shake out the US shale producers, and maybe even the high cost Canadian oil sands one.
That may be a secondary objective of course, since if the price of oil stays below $80 for extended periods of time many of those high cost producers will be squeezed out.

The other POV is that this is just regular fundamental demand & supply dynamics i.e. global demand is falling.
That is partially true as well, but it has been a well known fact for a while now and not "news" (i.e. EU recession, China slowdown, etc.).
IMHO, just fundamental factors cannot fully explain Saudi's actions in recent days/weeks - there is certainly an element of geo-politics involved.

What I meant by _The US sees Russia's capitulation imminent_ is that if the US has truly sworn to bring Russia to its knees in short order, given recent events the State Dept. must believe their plan is succeeding and they are getting close.
For instance:

*Russia's credit rating cut to 1 notch above Junk status*
*Russian bond yields at highest levels since 1998 crisis*
*Russia running out of forex reserves to prop up the Ruble*

Surely, the US administration must believe they are close to chopping off Russia's legs.

Russia has one, and only one, defense left - *its gold hoard*.

I forgot to mention one other factor in the previous post - the fall in oil prices is going to benefit China significantly.
In fact, Chinese manufacturing & industry will benefit almost as much as, if not more than, the US.
China's growth is falling rapidly from nearly 9% down to 6% within a couple of years.
There is talk that it might even dip as low as 5%.
And those are _official _numbers - who knows what the real story is - could be as low as 4%.

China is now the world's biggest energy importer.
Therefore, this fall in oil prices will benefit them significantly.

Which, in turn, might make them re-think their deep alliance with Russia and unconditional support for the Putin regime.

Bottom line - this fall in oil prices benefits _everyone_ that is friendly to the US or can serve US interests.
Only ones being hurt are the unfriendlies - mainly Russia, and to a lesser extent, Venezuela.


----------



## dubmac

HaroldCrump said:


> Bottom line - this fall in oil prices benefits _everyone_ that is friendly to the US or can serve US interests.


you've also made a prediction, if I'm not mistaken, that - in your view - Russia will run out of time/money in 6-9 months, and will capitulate (economically I presume), and that oil prices will likely begin to rise again. True?


----------



## Homerhomer

Most interesting discussion, thank you Harold.


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> you've also made a prediction, if I'm not mistaken, that - in your view - Russia will run out of time/money in 6-9 months, and will capitulate (economically I presume), and that oil prices will likely begin to rise again. True?



i believe HC said he attributes this prediction to the US & the saudis acting together?

harold didn't suggest any time frame of his own. Rather, he's looking to analyze what the great powers might be doing in order to bring about certain geopolitical developments.

here's his quote upthread:



> Therefore, my conclusion is that this is a tactical move by US & Saudi to shake out crash Russia.
> 
> By their calculations, Russia cannot hold out for more than 6 months to 1 year at the most.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Right, when I say "Russian capitulation", I do not mean it will have an immediate upward impact on crude oil prices.
IMHO, the goal of this policy is to progressively worsen Russia's socio-economic situation.
I wouldn't expect an immediate bounce back in oil prices.

Secondly, Russia (aka Putin) is not going to take all this lying down, right?
We all know that...Russia is not Greece or Cyprus.
They have the 2nd largest gold hoard in the world.
They have (arguably) the largest oil reserves in the world, 2nd only to Saudi Arabia - much of it in the Arctic North and as yet mostly unexplored.

Side note to Canada - we should expect more incursions and saber-rattling in the Artic in the coming months/years.
The Harper administration better be prepared to back up their Arctic sovereignty rhetoric with action.

Regarding time-frame, I don't think much will happen over the upcoming winter.
All the players in that region - Germany, Russia, Ukraine, etc. will dig in their heels to wait out the winter without any major excitement.

The excitement will resume in April.

I'd like to point out that I have read quotes from some Saudi officials that they are prepared to wait out these oil prices for "as long as a year or two".
This was a quote from a Saudi official reported in a Russian newspaper.
I posted a link to it under the _Oil_ thread here:
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/27169-Oil?p=425561&viewfull=1#post425561

So, that is what the Saudis themselves are preparing for.

Interestingly, that link is now broken...the headline is there, but the rest of the news article appears to have been removed.
It was a Russian news media (russia-insider.com) quoting a Saudi official.

Anyhow, middle east and East European media is now starting to report that the US & Saudis may be working together, although there are plenty of varying opinions.
Here is an article from a middle eastern newspaper talking about the alliance between the US & Saudi vs. Russia & Iran.
*Saudi Arabia pressuring Russian, Iran with price of oil*

I wouldn't personally make a time-sensitive bet on when oil prices may rise, such as by buying futures or options, etc.
This can play out in many different ways, including the whole plan failing and Russia ultimately prevailing (the article above considers that possibility too).
Therefore making a time-sensitive bet would be highly speculative.
Esp. given that the Saudis themselves are expecting this state of commodity warfare to last up to 2 years.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Apparently overnight Russia's central bank's deputy governor has said that they could start using gold from the bank's reserves to pay for imports.
This is now being reported in western media since the last few hrs.

This clearly means a few things:

- Russia has almost depleted their forex reserves
For evidence, I looked up the recent data from the US Treasury _*located here*_.
As of Aug, Russia had only $118B of USD reserves left, down from $150B a year ago.
They do have Euros & Renminbi, of course, but those must also be running low.
Aug. actually seems like ancient history now, since in the last 2 months they have been rapidly liquidating their reserves to prop up the Ruble.

- The central bank news release also said that at this time they are not planning any further action to prop up the Ruble.
I read this to mean they are essentially out of ammunitions at this time, and will take no further action (in fact, they have only one course of action left at this time if they want to defend the currency).

- Regarding gold prices, this would mean more selling/leasing by Russia, and thus lower prices.

- The Swiss vote at the end of this month, if successful, could provide a brief boost to gold prices.
But that effect will not last too long.
Russia already has several magnitudes more gold holding that the Swiss can ever buy.


----------



## Ag Driver

It might be time to revisit my Goldcorp position. This is one of my dogs and I'm trying to figure out an exit strategy. I currently own 100 shares averaging @ $31.14, and have held on for a couple years now. I have $3500 to play with again and I am considering buying 140 shares @ ~$24.20 to average down to about ~$27 .

I've been watching this ticker for a while now and it has been floating comfortably around $20-$24 for some time now. This would be a long term hold, but I would pull out once I'm back in the green a bit. 

What is everyone's recent take on G.TO?


----------



## KaeJS

G.TO has been a bit of a pisser.

At this point, though, if I were you..... I would probably take a position and DCA. I would try to get in under $24, though.


----------



## Westerncanada

Ag Driver said:


> It might be time to revisit my Goldcorp position. This is one of my dogs and I'm trying to figure out an exit strategy. I currently own 100 shares averaging @ $31.14, and have held on for a couple years now. I have $3500 to play with again and I am considering buying 140 shares @ ~$24.20 to average down to about ~$27 .
> 
> I've been watching this ticker for a while now and it has been floating comfortably around $20-$24 for some time now. This would be a long term hold, but I would pull out once I'm back in the green a bit.
> 
> What is everyone's recent take on G.TO?


Goldcorp is a great buy at $21-$24 IMO.. just buy, hold well the $0.05 cent dividend is paid month to month and sell at $30+. 

It has been well over $30 ten times in the past 5 years.. I would say this is one of the single best stocks to own if you do not need the money and are comfortable going in at low $20's and cashing out over $30. 

It should be in the "easy buys" thread


----------



## Westerncanada

How is everyone feeling about Gold this week with all the earnings on deck? Everything for Q1 is looking weak.. personally hoping for a goldcorp pull back to buy in again but it certainly doesnt appear to be pulling yet In advance of the thursday earnings


----------



## Ag Driver

I still keep quivering over the buy button hoping to see $22


----------



## Westerncanada

Maybe if the earning call is really sour.. but golds creeping up in price too


----------



## dogcom

With the FOMC meeting tomorrow and month end you should expect to see the criminals like the Fed and the bullion banks hard at work dumping paper onto the price of gold and silver. So you should probably see your $22 dollar target on Goldcorp by Friday. If gold was to climb through the FOMC meeting and month end then I believe we have seen the bottom in gold and the criminals have taken the long side.


----------



## Westerncanada

dogcom said:


> With the FOMC meeting tomorrow and month end you should expect to see the criminals like the Fed and the bullion banks hard at work dumping paper onto the price of gold and silver. So you should probably see your $22 dollar target on Goldcorp by Friday. If gold was to climb through the FOMC meeting and month end then I believe we have seen the bottom in gold and the criminals have taken the long side.


Fingers crossed for $22.. it still looks like its rising and currently above $24


----------



## Ag Driver

You called that one on the button dogcom. 

What do you think? Will we see it dip much further or is now a good time for me to average down? It's a long term hold for me, and has been for a few years now. I'm sitting at $31.14 right now so anything is better really.


----------



## bmoney

Great call dogcom. From a technical perspective this stock has broken down, I would expect a retest of the low, and $20 target.


----------



## dogcom

That was the easiest call ever because the bullion banks, Fed and such don't want you to look at gold and silver right after a FOMC meeting and because it is month end they will ring the register and clean out the long stops and options. These criminals can see where everyone is in the market and then dump their unlimited paper on it to get their way. If it was just an FOMC meeting they would just keep a lid on it and only kill it if their was an announcement the Fed made that would be bullish for gold.

Going forward we should see a relieve rise on Friday as the work has been done and probably a drop of some kind on Monday so we don't get to much of a rally going. Of course going forward is a trickier call because we can't say for sure what is in their minds and where the physical buyers are. The criminals have to be careful how far they dump it because China and others will come in and buy the physical which they are having a hard time acquiring and supplying to rig the market price.


----------



## Ag Driver

Topped up with 150 shares @ $22.88. I averaged down to about $26.18 now with 250 shares total. Time to sit and wait for a few more years while I collect my divvies.


----------



## AMABILE

started a position to-day @ $22.32


----------



## thepitchedlink

HHHmmm, should'a waited another day to buy in......oh well


----------



## dogcom

The overall stock market is dropping and often gold and silver stocks will follow. Then we also have to be aware that we are in a poor seasonal time for the PM's.


----------



## bmoney

Everyone needs to keep in mind the story. Gold was rising as fears that quantitative easing would lead to inflation, once the market realized that deflation was the bigger risk, gold and commodities began to sell off. What we are seeing now is the market is reacting to treasury rates rising, and that's an early concern of inflation but we are not seeing that translated into a rise in Gold, other metals or commodities (other than oil). You'll have to interpret what that means to you, personally I think the emergency rates stay and the deflation meme continues, that's not bullish for Gold.


----------



## dogcom

Gold relies on the instability of countries and currencies and not so much on deflation or inflation unless the deflation and inflation is the result of great instability. As long as the Fed can keep the confidence in itself and the dollar then gold will have a tough time taking off.


----------



## james4beach

Gold bullion in CAD is the key comparison to Goldcorp (TSE:G) share price.

As has been the case _for years_, Goldcorp under-performs the commodity. You will make more money if you hold a bar of gold bullion in your safety deposit box.

e.g. in last 5 years, gold priced in CAD is *up 12%*. Compare that to G.TO, down -45%. That's really horrible under-performance versus the commodity itself.
e.g. last 2 years, gold in CAD is down -3%. And G.TO is down -21%.

I plan to buy another bar of gold when I'm in Toronto this month. If a mining stock can't outperform this brick of inert metal, it's a pretty bad investment.


----------



## Ag Driver

Does that brick pay you monthly divvies?


----------



## james4beach

Dividends? Are you kidding me? So you'd rather take the severe underperformance just because they're paying you out some cash each month?

If you want to be paid out cash each month, why don't you put a pile of cash in the closet and then extract $100 from it every month? The cash in the closet will give you a far superior return to Goldcorp.

Dividends don't matter... total return matters.


----------



## bmoney

I question whether people like Goldcorp, the metal, or buying a stock that's 60% off it's high (maybe all 3). If you look a little farther back, this stock traded in the teens. Gold is a finicky investment that plays out trends over decades. Is this simply a pause in a long term rally, or a slow painful decline. For that you really need to dig deep and develop a thesis. Otherwise, as james has already pointed out, you may be better off owning the base metal, at least it is unencumbered. If we are in a long term decline in gold prices, you risk losing your capital which sort of defeats the purpose of investing in gold. Personally I would stay away unless the wind changes direction.


----------



## bmoney

Just a few cents off my $20 target...still don't like it here.


----------



## james4beach

I bought a 1 oz Maple Leaf gold coin recently. I don't own any mining stocks.


----------



## AMABILE

where did you finally end up buying your maple leaf coin ?


----------



## Westerncanada

james4beach said:


> Dividends? Are you kidding me? So you'd rather take the severe underperformance just because they're paying you out some cash each month?
> 
> If you want to be paid out cash each month, why don't you put a pile of cash in the closet and then extract $100 from it every month? The cash in the closet will give you a far superior return to Goldcorp.
> 
> Dividends don't matter... total return matters.


I am obviously bias as I own this position and purchase it Sub $22, but I agree in the sense that total return matters. That said, one would have to consider the time frame invested as well and certainly the last few years have not been positive, but you are only realizing gains if you are selling your brick/coin gold assets.. if you have a long term outlook of north of 10 + years the dividends are a nice plus to waiting out the gold pricing to return. 

I am pretty content getting my $245 a month in Dividend from this position while I wait out gold pricing. 

Yes, my capital has gone down, but I have no intention of letting this go for a long long time. 

History is a great teacher.. and Gold will certainly go back to it's previous highs at some point in the next 15-25 years.


Just my 2 cents.


----------



## Westerncanada

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/22/markets/gold_prices/

2011 When Goldcorp was hitting $49 a share. 

Hard to imagine we will not see Gold ever reach the price of 2011 highs of $1900 an ounce again in this lifetime.


----------



## none

.......or $400.


----------



## dogcom

Westerncanada gold could go to infinity against the US dollar but it could also go down sub $1000.00 if the Fed or someone has a huge hidden hoard somewhere to sell. We are living in completely rigged times on all markets so true price of anything is really unknown.


----------



## Westerncanada

dogcom said:


> Westerncanada gold could go to infinity against the US dollar but it could also go down sub $1000.00 if the Fed or someone has a huge hidden hoard somewhere to sell. We are living in completely rigged times on all markets so true price of anything is really unknown.


Absolutely correct.. nothing is guaranteed. . If it goes to $400 i will be buying more and more and more!


----------



## albertabound

none said:


> .......or $400.



Or $5000?


----------



## KaeJS

I don't understand the fascination with gold. Period.
I would never buy the actual metal and very rarely do I ever trade gold stocks and I would never hold a gold company.
I just don't see the appeal. Why would someone purchase a gold brick when you could buy a bank stock or something else?


----------



## none

I don't get it either. It's speculation, not investing. You may as well invest in toy collectables or medieval sex toys. It's silly.


----------



## dogcom

Kaejs it is paper that is the problem that is why you are seeing art sell so high. Gold and silver are the most direct threat to paper so it is held down the most. The problem is we don't know how far the timeline goes on the paper or digital scheme so holding paper could be right for some time lines.

This does not help much but tells you that you should keep many bases covered for anything going forward.


----------



## KaeJS

I can't foresee a time in the future where gold will replace digital numbers. At that time, money might be the least of our concerns...


----------



## tenoclock

Gold derives its value because it is a natural form of money that arose without any government or king's sanction, it has stayed for thousands of years, is accepted universally, and the supply of gold is relatively stable. Paper derives its value from the government that's backing it. 

Nobody holds dollars in cash as a measure of wealth preservation, people do own gold though. I don't see the point in buying gold companies though.


----------



## dogcom

Tenoclock I don't like the gold companies but I do like the business models of SLW and SSL and own them both because they don't take on the mining cost risks. However if they don't pay close attention to the mining companies that they make the deals with they do run the risk of mines shutting down and ending their streams.


----------



## al42

couldn't resist and put a buy order in for $16.99 that got filled !!
Don't know how much lower it can go but hopefully we are close to the bottom.


----------



## JordoR

I haven't followed Goldcorp in over a year and can't believe how low it's fallen. Pretty tempted to look at an entry here.


----------



## Synergy

al42 said:


> couldn't resist and put a buy order in for $16.99 that got filled !!
> Don't know how much lower it can go but hopefully we are close to the bottom.


I'm tempted. I have zero exposure to gold at the moment. USD dividends are appealing at the present time. I'm just not sure I see Gold going anywhere in the near future.


----------



## doctrine

For what it's worth, Goldcorp needs about $1150 USD per oz of gold to cover its capex and dividend (100% payout ratio). They always have options to lower costs and reduce capex, of course. But gold is very weak technically, blowing past both $1150 and $1100 so who knows where the bottom is. Goldcorp is also unhedged, so the hard work is already required.


----------



## al42

al42 said:


> couldn't resist and put a buy order in for $16.99 that got filled !!
> Don't know how much lower it can go but hopefully we are close to the bottom.


Looks like I should have waited...gold dropping another 10 bucks after close.
Could be another ugly day tomorrow.


----------



## Synergy

doctrine said:


> For what it's worth, Goldcorp needs about $1150 USD per oz of gold to cover its capex and dividend (100% payout ratio). They always have options to lower costs and reduce capex, of course. But gold is very weak technically, blowing past both $1150 and $1100 so who knows where the bottom is. Goldcorp is also unhedged, so the hard work is already required.


Good to know, I thought it was closer to $1000 USD. Their dividend will likely be at risk if gold continues to slide.


----------



## doctrine

They pay about $500M/year in dividends, just raised $1B in the Tahoe sale and also had their credit lines expanded - so they have a lot of financial flexibility. 

Does that Tahoe deal ever look good, sold $1B at $17.20 a share just last month that closed at $11.27 today.

But most gold companies will do very poorly until gold prices rise.


----------



## peterk

Got it for more today (looks like I should have waited longer). Am now 18% underwater from ACB. Yikes.


----------



## none

gibor said:


> looks like it's not bad buy just above $45


lol.


----------



## dogcom

If your looking short term over the next month or so it could be a good time to buy here. We usually see a seasonal low in gold going into August. Also by busting the stops the bullion banks can get out of their shorts and be long again and let the specs try to cover their shorts.

Longer term it is a bet on the powers that be have changed to long and are giving up on the controlling the system and are about to let it go. So going long Goldcorp or gold long term is a bet that the Fed and such are giving up and will let the stock market fall and allow gold and silver to find their own prices. This seems unlikely but then again at some point they will be forced to let free markets decide. A better clue to that is if the bond market starts to fall apart.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Started a position this morning.....


----------



## zylon

Every Tuesday, *Stewart Thomson* engages in the mandatory hand-holding for people who forget why they ever started down this path.

Warning: the feel-good afterglow can dissipate following another fifty dollar thumping.

Gold: Breakdown Or Simple Overshoot?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_072115.html


----------



## fatcat

zylon said:


> Every Tuesday, *Stewart Thomson* engages in the mandatory hand-holding for people who forget why they ever started down this path.
> 
> Warning: the feel-good afterglow can dissipate following another fifty dollar thumping.
> 
> Gold: Breakdown Or Simple Overshoot?
> http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_072115.html


this metal will truly drive people mad ... 24 reasons and he is still hyperventilating ... 

i have no problem with gold but i cannot see the value in reading blogs dedicated to what amounts to nothing less than the worship of gold

gold is not an asset class to these people, it is an article of faith and a political statement ... which is fine, but not a very good way to invest precious capital


----------



## zylon

> i have no problem with gold


Sure you do - no need to try to hide it.

Who do you think has a problem with gold in this short interview?

http://www.kereport.com/2015/07/21/rick-rule-mania/


----------



## fatcat

zylon said:


> Sure you do - no need to try to hide it.
> 
> Who do you think has a problem with gold in this short interview?
> 
> http://www.kereport.com/2015/07/21/rick-rule-mania/


as the interviewer says "timing is very important, you have a certain amount of dollars and you put it in one position and you can't wait forever for that position to all of a sudden move in to a bull market"

will gold have another bull run ? ... certainly but when and for how long and more important how will it fare against other assets (not to mention it's lack of earning power and price instability) ?

and yet again you cite another gold-bug-blog as evidence for the worth of the asset 

there is never a time when these blogs and these gold bugs don't have an explanation for why now is the time to buy gold it is always the time to buy gold

if you read people who cover all asset classes you get a much more balanced picture about the worth of gold

every single one of these blogs would have told you 5 years ago to buy gold versus the s&p 500 - every one of them and yet the s&p has creamed gold over the last 5 years

this is what destroys their credibility ... gold is a religion to these guys


----------



## Westerncanada

I wont enter the debate on gold vs stocks etc.. but would say that based on historical activity a d the length the world has carried on with minimal polictic or economic disaster since 2008 that Goldcorp is a great value buy at $16-17. Ive purchased all the way down from $21 as recently as yesterday at $17 ish. 

Im not concerned about short term and confident this capital will return over the long haul.


----------



## fatcat

here is a good short piece on gold: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...-wont-get-up-again-2015-07-20?link=MW_popular

excerpt:


> The sad part is that gold always has been a sucker’s bet. It’s supposed to protect against inflation. It doesn’t. It’s supposed to retain its value. It doesn’t. For those reasons, gold is supposed to be the ultimate currency. It’s not.
> 
> As fund manager and blogger Barry Ritholtz said of gold’s fundamentals: “It has none.”


----------



## Westerncanada

Goldcorp is cutting the dividend today 60% to 0.02 per share per month.. should have a decent hit on the stock price... also another buy opportunity for a long term value play


----------



## dogcom

Every time a company announces anything in the gold space it will get hit. It is like investors are shocked and never saw it coming even though it is like looking at the sun after nightfall, not believing it could be so bright. You are better off owning XGD and not having to put up with this crap if you want to own gold stocks even though goldcorp has a position there. I would say the same would probably go for oil stocks as well.

However as an opportunity you may have something on this westerncanada and can make a fast buck off a bounce.


----------



## Westerncanada

dogcom said:


> Every time a company announces anything in the gold space it will get hit. It is like investors are shocked and never saw it coming even though it is like looking at the sun after nightfall, not believing it could be so bright. You are better off owning XGD and not having to put up with this crap if you want to own gold stocks even though goldcorp has a position there. I would say the same would probably go for oil stocks as well.
> 
> However as an opportunity you may have something on this westerncanada and can make a fast buck off a bounce.


My outlook is very long term.. essentially i want to own as much as i can sub $20 and will unload again when it goes past 30. 

Strictly based on history repeating itself with gold prices around world events as it has for 50+ years  

Id never wish the world any harm.. but certainly we have not had any major scares in quite some yime that would drive up the price



Cheers


----------



## humble_pie

the day started out at least with a nice uptick in GG over the div cut news.

goldcorp was never a high dividend payor. When GG was $25, a 5-penny USD dividend was piffle. The anamoly was the recent rising dividend yield as the stock plunged.

all that's happened is that the GG dividend yield has adjusted downwards to historic levels.

moneyToo recently posted this link to the ever-loquacious Thane Stenner at GMP richardson.

thane allows as how he serves a lot of HNW investors. He says that what the savvy ones among em are interested in these days are gold miners & other resource stocks.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...te-crises-in-oil-gold-mining/article25761007/


----------



## Westerncanada

My increased position on G is on a good streak this week and looking forward to picking up my next purchase when the USA raises rates. . Should bring G back to the $17 range and allow for another easy buy well it pays to wait out the $30 share price. 

Giddy Up


----------



## fatcat

Westerncanada said:


> My increased position on G is on a good streak this week and looking forward to picking up my next purchase when the USA raises rates. . Should bring G back to the $17 range and allow for another easy buy well it pays to wait out the $30 share price.
> 
> Giddy Up


i need to be educated here because i was under the impression that a rate raise would be negative for gold because it will add a penalty for holding a non-paying asset like gold since other assets will now be paying more

i.e there is no penalty holding gold when rates are low

why will a fed rate raise be good for gold ?


----------



## Synergy

fatcat said:


> why will a fed rate raise be good for gold ?


I think WC meant bad for gold. This way one could add to their position at a lower price, as one "wait out the $30 share price". Similar to how MOA always wants everything to go lower so he can purchase and DRIP shares at a better price. Psychologically this is one one to take the sting out of market corrections.


----------



## humble_pie

fatcat said:


> ... i was under the impression that a rate raise would be negative for gold because it will add a penalty for holding a non-paying asset like gold since other assets will now be paying more




afaik u are right, gold does indeed tend to fall when US interest rates rise.

a Reuters story earlier this am says some doubt has arisen as to whether the US will raise rates this september as previously indicated - or not raise rates.

for those looking uber-closely at tea leaves, doubt seems to boil down to one federal reserve district president whose speech yesterday failed to repeat his earlier comments in which he'd said he'd vote for a rate hike next month.

(changing the topic wildly) (so sorry) does anyone know anything about Osisko royalties? evidently it's succeeded plain old Osisko & now it's a gold mine mine royalty company w 2 high-profile mines, both located in northern quebec.

symbol is now OR. I've never held this stock, know zilch about it other than numerous analysts like it & royalty companies are having a vogue. I will check the archives to see if a thread already exists, promise.


_NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Gold rose 1 percent to above $1,100 an ounce on Monday, its biggest increase in more than seven weeks, as the U.S. dollar turned lower and comments from a Federal Reserve officials raised uncertainty about a September rate hike.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart said a Fed decision to raise interest rates should come soon, but his prepared speech did not repeat recent comments in which he said he was ready to vote for a rate hike next month. _


----------



## Westerncanada

Synergy said:


> I think WC meant bad for gold. This way one could add to their position at a lower price, as one "wait out the $30 share price". Similar to how MOA always wants everything to go lower so he can purchase and DRIP shares at a better price. Psychologically this is one one to take the sting out of market corrections.


Correct.. rate raise will depress gold prices, and will definitely create another buying opportunity for goldcorp.


----------



## fatcat

Synergy said:


> I think WC meant bad for gold. This way one could add to their position at a lower price, as one "wait out the $30 share price". Similar to how MOA always wants everything to go lower so he can purchase and DRIP shares at a better price. Psychologically this is one one to take the sting out of market corrections.


this makes sense thanks, the wording tripped me up


----------



## Westerncanada

fatcat said:


> this makes sense thanks, the wording tripped me up


My apologies for the wording.. it does read a little funny! 

I only wanted to add it is very tempting to unload my $10K i bought at $17.05 and turn a quick profit in two weeks but will stay the course and continue to hold until $30


----------



## dogcom

Ok he we go in front of the ocean in Kona at 9:10Pm since I am 6 hours behind Toronto.

Anyway I do not think the Fed can raise rates much at all without destroying everything. We are at the end here and we are going to see the extreme play out over the next few years once 2015 ends. Why? Because decades of year 5 never seem to go wrong but 06 and 07 are usually a different story.

Anyways I would still go with a streamer over the hard mining to get my fix to own this sector.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## Westerncanada

Ag Driver said:


> Nice to see G coming back up over this past month. I'm in for 250 @ $26.23. What is everyone's exit strategy on this one? I am looking at unloading around the ~$30 mark --- how ever long that will take.


Im in at Various levels under $22.50 to $17.05 and will exit at the $30 mark and re-buy under the $22 mark for the balance of my investment timeline est. 30 years


----------



## humble_pie

GG (goldcorp on US market) has liquid US options with profitable premium. I'll keep my shares, long diagonal strategies & short calls going until the day the company transforms itself into a different corporation. Which could be 30 days or 30 years.

a target price of 30 or any other amount is meaningless to me, all i'm looking for is a tax-favoured return as capital gains plus smidgin of eligible canadian dividend.

the FX convertibility of goldcorp is an advantage. It pays a USD dividend, so even though this has been recently cut back to a pittance of 2 pennies per month, those pennies will still come into USD accounts FX-free.

but the shares can be sold in either US or canadian market, depending on investor's outlook. Some brokers have trading platforms that will *find* the shares to sell pursuant to an online order, regardless of whether the shares are held in USD or CAD account. Other brokers have to be phoned to request journal of the stock, if it's to be sold in the opposite currency account.


----------



## Westerncanada

Looks like the M&A discussion of goldcorp is giving the stock a nice little pop again this week. 

Very interested to see where this goes in the next year


----------



## dogcom

This is a good time of the year to own gold stocks but the powers that be still have control of the bogus CRIMEX price and there is little to stop them from their rinse, wash and repeat scheme. However how much lower can they push down the quality producing gold stocks through pushing down the gold price. Fundamentals in gold per demand is probably better then anything in the entire stock market and yet the price falls. 

In fact with base metals dropping this is also taking much PM supply from the market besides the mines draining their high grade deposits. If they keep up their scam for much longer there will be no where to get supply even if prices rise because it takes time to ramp up production again and this makes goldcorp a very good longer term buy here.


----------



## dogcom

I notice the gold price to oil price ratio is moving firmly in the favor of gold which is very bullish for Goldcorp and miners in general if it continues. With energy costs coming down, takeovers very cheap and I would think that experts in the field becoming cheaper and more available because of the decline in all mining, base metals included, this has to be very good for Goldcorp.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## Westerncanada

dogcom said:


> I notice the gold price to oil price ratio is moving firmly in the favor of gold which is very bullish for Goldcorp and miners in general if it continues. With energy costs coming down, takeovers very cheap and I would think that experts in the field becoming cheaper and more available because of the decline in all mining, base metals included, this has to be very good for Goldcorp.


All very positive signs for goldcorp. I really hope the feds raise the rates in sept and that should hammer gold price enough to cause a good buying dip in Goldcorp. 

One of the best charts of any stock on the TSX is goldcorps volitility over the last 15 years. I never bet against history, and certainly so many great dips on goldcorp over the last.15 years


----------



## doctrine

There is only one thing holding down gold - the US economy and the fed rate. Just about everyone else in the world is easing. If the US has any economic weakness or the Fed doesn't raise, prepare for a big run up.

Also note that gold is seasonally strong here until the end of Sep. If you make a bunch of money in the next few weeks, you might want to think about reallocation by mid-late Sep.


----------



## dogcom

Whats holding gold down is gold rehypothecation, looting of gold ETF's, naked shorts and sales by Fed/central bank sanctioned agents.

Also wars to steal gold like Ukraine, Libya and so on to help find the physical to feed the far east. 

We are way beyond the selling pressure that would come from the US economy or rate hikes as the backwardation and physical demand simply don't match up.


----------



## Westerncanada

doctrine said:


> There is only one thing holding down gold - the US economy and the fed rate. Just about everyone else in the world is easing. If the US has any economic weakness or the Fed doesn't raise, prepare for a big run up.
> 
> Also note that gold is seasonally strong here until the end of Sep. If you make a bunch of money in the next few weeks, you might want to think about reallocation by mid-late Sep.


Very Valid point.. I am still hoping to hold out until $30 to unload/re-allocate and certainly if we are going into correction territory in Equities it is likely going to push gold up and miners along with it. 

I definitely remain a long term fan of buying G on the dips and cashing out on the peaks but would like to go back into equities in the event we continue to drop. 

It is definitely a patience game.. and those with time on their side are definitely set up to win so long as they are prepared to wait.


----------



## Westerncanada

Triple digit declines coming again today on the market based on china/futures so should have a continued Goldcorp rally


----------



## Westerncanada

Westerncanada said:


> Triple digit declines coming again today on the market based on china/futures so should have a continued Goldcorp rally


Goldcorp announcea lower then expected production for eleanor and the market punishes it in addition to lower gold prices etc. 

52 week low,so im picking up another 27k today. 

I want to put this in the easy buys thread but cant recall where it is


----------



## tkirk62

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/33898-Easy-Buys


----------



## Westerncanada

Thanks  ill post there as well


----------



## daddybigbucks

I just bought some G on Friday. d'oh.

Im not sure if its such an easy buy though as gold seems to be technically on a downward trend.

I decided on Friday to buy on the way down as opposed to a big lot.

I don't understand how gold companies made money when gold was $700 an ounce compared to $1000 now.

I should compare the balance sheet from then and now.


----------



## Westerncanada

daddybigbucks said:


> I just bought some G on Friday. d'oh.
> 
> Im not sure if its such an easy buy though as gold seems to be technically on a downward trend.
> 
> I decided on Friday to buy on the way down as opposed to a big lot.
> 
> I don't understand how gold companies made money when gold was $700 an ounce compared to $1000 now.
> 
> I should compare the balance sheet from then and now.


Buying on the downword trend is the best time to buy! 

Gold companies operate exactly like oil companies when their all in per barrell cost is $55 and the market is $45.. they bleed money, increase debt, and ultimately after enough time go under if the price doesnt rebound. 

Goldcorps sustained cost is in the $850 range.. they have 24% debt load (compared to barrack at 127%) so although the price is depressed they are still increasing production and pumping out cash. 

Plus... they have $3billion in the war chest and will likely be making some acquistions of smaller companies that cannot stay afloat


----------



## daddybigbucks

If you not a salesman by day , you should be one.

Even though you do make points, I am still on the side of caution with G.


----------



## Westerncanada

daddybigbucks said:


> If you not a salesman by day , you should be one.
> 
> Even though you do make points, I am still on the side of caution with G.



Lol I am in sales.. how everything above is listed as a fact and available in their quarterly report. 

I can appreciate being cautious with this or any stock really, i always like to click threads of stocks here from years back and how happy people were to purchase CPG at $44
. .


----------



## SpendLessEarnMore

thanks for bringing this stock to my attention. Picked up 600 shares at $16.70 today. Will buy more if it goes down.

With a book value of $27.63, debt to capital ratio of 16.8% and cutting it's dividend to stem the bleeding I think this stock will be in good shape once gold rises again whenever that may be.


----------



## Value

How do you figure $ 27.63 for the book value?

I'm at $ 20.88


----------



## SpendLessEarnMore

Just going by what TD is giving me on market research link. $20.88 book value still good more than share price.


----------



## Value

For sure 

More or less 25 % potential upside... I'll buy some G eventually, but I'm just staying on the sidelines for now... Seems like the downside in gold and silver might extend for a while still and these mining stocks are so volatile!


----------



## thepitchedlink

looking good today!


----------



## bmoney

Commodities caught a bid as the USD dropped, rumour is China is selling Tbills and the market is settling into the notion that a Fed hike will be postponed to next year. I don't see any reason to inject greater meaning into the move. It's going to be choppy for a while, this is a time to trade not buy and hold.


----------



## Westerncanada

SpendLessEarnMore said:


> thanks for bringing this stock to my attention. Picked up 600 shares at $16.70 today. Will buy more if it goes down.
> 
> With a book value of $27.63, debt to capital ratio of 16.8% and cutting it's dividend to stem the bleeding I think this stock will be in good shape once gold rises again whenever that may be.


How are you feeling about your 600 Shares these days?


----------



## thepitchedlink

rising nicely again today....


----------



## Westerncanada

thepitchedlink said:


> rising nicely again today....


Golds up $18.00.. looking like this stock will continue to push higher


----------



## dogcom

Westerncanada said:


> Golds up $18.00.. looking like this stock will continue to push higher



This is a classic case of the usual Fed, central bank manipulation today. It was meant to go up today to bring in the longs so they could get their short positions in and have room for the price to drop after the FOMC meeting today. It should continue this way through month end so they don't have to pay out to the longs at expiry. I forgot to post about this yesterday that we should get the hit after the FOMC meeting and especially with month end near. The manipulation is crazy obvious in this market. Sure the Fed said it may raise rates in December but this would have happened no matter what the Fed said, it just made it easier.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Down we go....guess I should have taken that 2k profit in my TFSA...oh well, got my order in for a little more it this keeps dropping


----------



## Westerncanada

thepitchedlink said:


> Down we go....guess I should have taken that 2k profit in my TFSA...oh well, got my order in for a little more it this keeps dropping


42% production increase and the market agaun punishes the stock due to the write down and guidance adjustment. 

This is a screaming buy $17 and under..


----------



## thepitchedlink

This is a screaming buy $17 and under..[/QUOTE]


Yup


----------



## besmartrich

thepitchedlink said:


> This is a screaming buy $17 and under..


Gold corp is in my watchlist. $16.7 is a bargain for sure!


----------



## james4beach

If you're bullish on gold, wouldn't some kind of physical exposure be better than this? Goldcorp chronically lags physical.

Some options are: MNT (Royal Canadian Mint's gold units), IGT, CEF.A

All of them have done much better than Goldcorp


----------



## SpendLessEarnMore

G $16.3


----------



## RUSH2112

*Small Miner Advantage*



Westerncanada said:


> 42% production increase and the market agaun punishes the stock due to the write down and guidance adjustment.
> 
> This is a screaming buy $17 and under..


Production means nothing if you have slim margins and huge debt.

Those interested in mining stocks should stick to small producers with little debt and overhead.

Should gold go below $1000, the little guy can survive because shutting down segments of the operation can be done quickly and at little cost something Goldcorp can not do.

Goldcorp may be great with $2000 gold but at these prices, most the big players are losing money.


----------



## dogcom

For me I stick with Silver Wheaton, Sandstrom gold or other streaming companies so I don't have to deal with the cost side. They still have issues as well but a lot less then the miners have.


----------



## RUSH2112

dogcom said:


> For me I stick with Silver Wheaton, Sandstrom gold or other streaming companies so I don't have to deal with the cost side. They still have issues as well but a lot less then the miners have.


Good choices but very expensive to buy.

Whenever you see a miner sign a streaming deal you know they are in need of quick cash.

The Red Lake miner Rubicon Minerals, that crashed yesterday, had a streaming deal selling production at a fraction of spot price just to stay in business.


----------



## Westerncanada

RUSH2112 said:


> Production means nothing if you have slim margins and huge debt.
> 
> Those interested in mining stocks should stick to small producers with little debt and overhead.
> 
> Should gold go below $1000, the little guy can survive because shutting down segments of the operation can be done quickly and at little cost something Goldcorp can not do.
> 
> Goldcorp may be great with $2000 gold but at these prices, most the big players are losing money.


You're actually 100% incorrect, and would suggest you research. Goldcorp before talking about their debt levels that are non-existent and their ability to not survive at sub $1000 gold prices is ridiculous. 

Their debt load is 24% (the lowest in the entire industry for large cap minors) their current sustained cost is $860/ounce.. so no, their operating margin is not remotely in nor is the debt huge. 

Third, from a risk perspective any small company in the mining industry is far more likely to disappear then a larger company with diversified income in addition to 3 Billion dollars in cash. In the bank.. 

Im not trying. To dispute whether goldcorp is or isnt a good fit for you but dont think you have your facts straight about this company. 

$16 is a fantastic entry point. Major upside here.. and if gold goes below $800 / ounce then it will be an even better opportunity


----------



## besmartrich

Westerncanada said:


> You're actually 100% incorrect, and would suggest you research. Goldcorp before talking about their debt levels that are non-existent and their ability to not survive at sub $1000 gold prices is ridiculous.
> 
> Their debt load is 24% (the lowest in the entire industry for large cap minors) their current sustained cost is $860/ounce.. so no, their operating margin is not remotely in nor is the debt huge.
> 
> Third, from a risk perspective any small company in the mining industry is far more likely to disappear then a larger company with diversified income in addition to 3 Billion dollars in cash. In the bank..
> 
> Im not trying. To dispute whether goldcorp is or isnt a good fit for you but dont think you have your facts straight about this company.
> 
> $16 is a fantastic entry point. Major upside here.. and if gold goes below $800 / ounce then it will be an even better opportunity


Touché!


----------



## RUSH2112

Westerncanada said:


> You're actually 100% incorrect, and would suggest you research. Goldcorp before talking about their debt levels that are non-existent and their ability to not survive at sub $1000 gold prices is ridiculous.
> 
> Their debt load is 24% (the lowest in the entire industry for large cap minors) their current sustained cost is $860/ounce.. so no, their operating margin is not remotely in nor is the debt huge.
> 
> Third, from a risk perspective any small company in the mining industry is far more likely to disappear then a larger company with diversified income in addition to 3 Billion dollars in cash. In the bank..
> 
> Im not trying. To dispute whether goldcorp is or isnt a good fit for you but dont think you have your facts straight about this company.
> 
> $16 is a fantastic entry point. Major upside here.. and if gold goes below $800 / ounce then it will be an even better opportunity


It was also a good buy at $55.00 or so they said.

Lots of bag-holders eating tuna and rice.


----------



## Westerncanada

RUSH2112 said:


> It was also a good buy at $55.00 or so they said.
> 
> Lots of bag-holders eating tuna and rice.


Not sure how thats relevant to your earlier information being incorrect.


----------



## RUSH2112

Westerncanada said:


> Not sure how thats relevant to your earlier information being incorrect.


Did not come here to argue but if you think Goldcorp is cheap, phone your broker and load up.


----------



## Westerncanada

RUSH2112 said:


> Did not come here to argue but if you think Goldcorp is cheap, phone your broker and load up.


Oh dont worry.. im 45k deep hear around $17 that i bought last time it went down at this level. That was only a few months ago and i did unload about. $15k at $20 just to top up my profits on this debt ridden no margin high risk company  

I wasnt trying to argue at all just wanted to mention that goldcorp doesnt have the financials you explained however they do match barricks debt/margin levels. 

Cheers


----------



## RUSH2112

Westerncanada said:


> Oh dont worry.. im 45k deep hear around $17 that i bought last time it went down at this level. That was only a few months ago and i did unload about. $15k at $20 just to top up my profits on this debt ridden no margin high risk company
> 
> I wasnt trying to argue at all just wanted to mention that goldcorp doesnt have the financials you explained however they do match barricks debt/margin levels.
> 
> Cheers


A $2.4 billion loss in 2014 and needed a streaming deal with Silver Wheaton.

And yet you say they are rolling in cash.

This is like me telling everyone I am rich with a wallet full of credit cards and having to go to the payday loan store so I can buy my groceries to survive another few days.

Down 2.55% so far today.

Good call.


----------



## Westerncanada

RUSH2112 said:


> A $2.4 billion loss in 2014 and needed a streaming deal with Silver Wheaton.
> 
> And yet you say they are rolling in cash.
> 
> This is like me telling everyone I am rich with a wallet full of credit cards and having to go to the payday loan store so I can buy my groceries to survive another few days.
> 
> Down 2.55% so far today.
> 
> Good call.


We'll see if they can pay the bills the next few months and go from there


----------



## thepitchedlink

And below 16 we go.....


----------



## peterk

Bah. Just bought a few more shares yesterday at $16.00


----------



## jollybear

Me too........bought at $16.12 yesterday and again today at $15.22. I`m with WesternCanada, over 3000 shares deep now!


----------



## Westerncanada

jollybear said:


> Me too........bought at $16.12 yesterday and again today at $15.22. I`m with WesternCanada, over 3000 shares deep now!


Betting with History here as well.. historically, it will always go up and always go down! I am going to add to my position here and possibly again in December if the Fed Raises rates which may cause this to drop a little further but I think some of that "fear" is already built in the price.


----------



## jollybear

Gold is back down to $1064.75/oz currently, yet G.TO is now at $16.02 Guess it`s off the strength from TSX today. Thoughts?


----------



## daddybigbucks

The last two years I have been buying Goldcorp in December and then every January it has a stellar rise in which I sell.
This year I will try again.
no rhyme or reason, just a little pattern.


----------



## The_Tosser

jollybear said:


> Gold is back down to $1064.75/oz currently, yet G.TO is now at $16.02 Guess it`s off the strength from TSX today. Thoughts?



OK fella. To whom do i send the cheque to?

I see miners were steady for the last few days especially during market sells.

Not being one to go individual stocks ever, and i do not mind mucking it up on volatile plays..... short DUST @ 18.51 - thank you lol, ........please give me a target to get out!

lmao.

Naw, I'll let it ride to $13 area. This stuff truly is the debris circling around the garbage can, 25 year lows in some cases, "only" 10 years in others, but hey you gotta give it a twirl once in a while.


----------



## dogcom

jollybear said:


> Gold is back down to $1064.75/oz currently, yet G.TO is now at $16.02 Guess it`s off the strength from TSX today. Thoughts?


Gold can rise to the 200 day moving average and maybe a little higher and then back down again. I would think we should see a little rise here and then a drop after the Fed meeting no matter what they do. In general it will stay down as long as they can send physical gold to meet eastern demand. It is all a game and no market is real, it is just one big paper manipulation along with lots of propaganda.


----------



## jollybear

Might be another buying opportunity if the S&P 500 tests 2115 again and doesn't`t break above. ^^^ Agreed.......it`s an odd commodity that people run to during defensive times. I'll have to check that out daddybigbucks...thxs


----------



## KaeJS

Just curious...

Why are people buying this?

The company has lost a ton of money the last 2 years in a row...

Are you guys betting on horses, or investing?


----------



## The_Tosser

KaeJS said:


> Are you guys betting on horses, or investing?



I'm just doing a sector horse-bet on extreme levels using a derivative that helps me a bit over time. I don't call a whole lot of things an 'investment' to begin with but these dogs are the worst 'investments' i can think of, outside of penny-stocks or lottery tickets.

BTW if dust does get closer to $16 in the near time i am out for the quick gain. I won't wait for $13, which i have full faith will come. Just a horse bet


----------



## The_Tosser

The_Tosser said:


> BTW if dust does get closer to $16 in the near time i am out for the quick gain. I won't wait for $13, which i have full faith will come. Just a horse bet



Well that was quick 

Covered dust short +$2.20ish approx 12%

Glue-stick wins by a nose lol


----------



## daddybigbucks

KaeJS said:


> Just curious...
> 
> Why are people buying this?
> 
> The company has lost a ton of money the last 2 years in a row...
> 
> Are you guys betting on horses, or investing?


They still got grade A assets. Last year, anything under $23 was a great deal and I made a lot of money on the stock price swings.
Now anything under $16 is a great deal.
I think G did some big write offs last year, so the balance sheet has stabilized. 
This is my only exposure to gold.
Those are my reasons.


----------



## dogcom

I sold off my Silver Wheaton after it outperformed Goldcorp and XGD over the last 10 days. I replaced it with Goldcorp and XGD yesterday. The reason for this is the Silver Wheaton Glencore deal. While the deal is a good one for SLW I am afraid of Glencore staying around. Looking at the SLW and Goldcorp chart they follow each other closely and outperform each other at different times and this was a time that SLW had been outperforming so I made the move.


----------



## lonewolf

Just recently money managers had moved to their largest net short position in gold futures & option contracts since first tracked by CFTC in 2006. Recently large specs held their smallest net long position in gold contracts since 2003.


----------



## The_Tosser

lonewolf said:


> Just recently money managers had moved to their largest net short position in gold futures & option contracts since first tracked by CFTC in 2006. Recently large specs held their smallest net long position in gold contracts since 2003.


lol i love 'stats' like this. 

I wonder who falls for this silliness that professionals are loading short even as the thing has fallen 45% straight over the past 3 years or so. I highly doubt any of this is actually true on its face. That's not how money is made by any trader with a clue. There's a lot more you ain't seein' is my guess.


----------



## lonewolf

In 2003 when large specs held their smallest net long position in 12 & half years gold rallied nearly 30% over the following 8 months. Comercials currently hold thier smallest net short position since 2 weeks surrounding the July low when gold started an 11% rally to Oct 12.

Large specs dont get it, while the comercials do. Price pattern possible diagonal triangle recently completed the 5th wave down of a 5er down from the 2011 high. If correct a counter trend rally higher before another 5er down


----------



## The_Tosser

lonewolf said:


> Large specs dont get it, while the comercials do. Price pattern possible diagonal triangle recently completed the 5th wave down of a 5er down from the 2011 high. If correct a counter trend rally higher before another 5er down


lmao

My unicorn got loose, i need someone to come help me find it. I have two more so we can ride to go get it.


----------



## jollybear

KaeJS said:


> Just curious...
> 
> Why are people buying this?
> 
> The company has lost a ton of money the last 2 years in a row...
> 
> Are you guys betting on horses, or investing?



Nothing wrong with having a discussion under INDIVIDUAL STOCK/EQUITIES NOT INVESTING section of this forum about this stock. If you follow trends like when sentiment starts to shift towards defensive assets such as gold you can capitalize on them in the short term. This stock just gained over 5.5% in a day, hopefully some members capitalized on that...........it`s not long-term investing, it`s a short-term play that the market allowed.


----------



## lonewolf

The_Tosser said:


> lol i love 'stats' like this.


 Statistics, math & numbers are my friends


----------



## thepitchedlink

new low today


----------



## peterk

Put in an order near the end of the day yesterday and it didn't hit by 1c. I am so done with Limit orders... *grumble*


----------



## thepitchedlink

peterk said:


> Put in an order near the end of the day yesterday and it didn't hit by 1c. I am so done with Limit orders... *grumble*


By that you mean...just buy it if you want it?


----------



## besmartrich

thepitchedlink said:


> new low today


I can see it as really good value but I still hesitating to initiate my position. When is it going to show its bottom?


----------



## jollybear

besmartrich said:


> I can see it as really good value but I still hesitating to initiate my position. When is it going to show its bottom?


What type of time frame are you thinking holding this stock? It hit new lows this week but has already had a nice bounce today.


----------



## thepitchedlink

sold out today on a bit of a rise.....still holding a bit


----------



## thepitchedlink

And up we go..


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## dubmac

ABX up 81% on past 3 months to Goldcorp's 36%.


----------



## daddybigbucks

Even though we had that big drop a month ago, this is the big pop that always happens in the new year.
Analysts are saying gold can hit 2000/ounce this year.
Im not so sure so sold today for 25% gain in three months.


----------



## peterk

Excellent. Finally above my ACB on this. Had some very good timing a couple weeks ago with 200 shares at $14.00.

I'll keep holding.


----------



## thepitchedlink

HHmmm, what happen there at the end of the day??


----------



## dogcom

I would suggest that there is a lot of hot money in these stocks that will come and go very quickly pushing these stocks up or down hard at any moment of the trading day.


----------



## Westerncanada

Westerncanada said:


> Betting with History here as well.. historically, it will always go up and always go down! I am going to add to my position here and possibly again in December if the Fed Raises rates which may cause this to drop a little further but I think some of that "fear" is already built in the price.


Still loving this buy at sub $16.. 

Go History Go!


----------



## Ag Driver

Some poor news plus a divvy cut, and the market reacted sharply. Might be an even longer wait for me yet. 

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/02/26/goldcorp-slashes-dividend.html


----------



## Ag Driver

Westerncanada said:


> Still loving this buy at sub $16..
> 
> Go History Go!


You must be pleased with this recent run. I'm looking to sell a bit in the near future if the upward trend continues.


----------



## Ag Driver

I've got some cash on hand from a previous sale. I am currently holding 250 shares. I would like to average down again, but sell back to 100 shares for much less exposure. 

I'm thinking about averaging down again -- if I were to buy in around 20, it would put me at 24.30.

What are everyone thoughts on G at these levels?


----------



## hollyhunter

National Bank Financial issued estimates for Goldcorp’s Q4 2016 earnings at $0.12 EPS, FY2016 earnings at $0.27 EPS, FY2017 earnings at $0.48 EPS, FY2018 earnings at $0.39 EPS, FY2019 earnings at $0.36 EPS and FY2020 earnings at $0.18 EPS.


----------



## new dog

I stick with XGD because I am to afraid of the constant problems gold companies seem to come up with. However for a shorter term hold maybe G will close the gap here a bit making it a better buy.

http://web.tmxmoney.com/charting.php?qm_page=854&qm_symbol=G

But as you can see in the chart XGD has destroyed G in performance and you got a basket of stocks instead of just one. So why take the risk unless you think G is really going to take off for whatever reason.


----------



## Westerncanada

Ag Driver said:


> You must be pleased with this recent run. I'm looking to sell a bit in the near future if the upward trend continues.



Very pleased in general, as one of my only 'in and out' stocks in my portfolio I am now again back on the sidelines after unloading at $25.. but like all things historical, I will be back in the game as soon as we are down at $16 again or lower. 


For good or bad, this has been the best performing ROI play i've ever had.


----------



## zylon

*Goldcorp to acquire Exeter Resource Corporation*


each common share of Exeter will be exchanged for 0.12 of a common share of Goldcorp. 
closing of the transaction is expected to occur no later than June 30, 2017.


http://www.goldcorp.com/English/Inv...uire-Exeter-Resource-Corporation/default.aspx


----------



## zylon

Bought enough Exeter (XRC) shares so that when the exchange happens, I'll have 100 Goldcorp shares.
woo-hoo! let the good times roll. or not










http://www.4-traders.com/GOLDCORP-INC-1410086/


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted


----------



## Eder

You get some diluted Newmont shares and enough cash for a latte....Canada loses another business.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted


----------



## humble_pie

Ag Driver said:


> I've moved G.TO to my USD TFSA finally for the anticipated 0.02 divvie increase to 0.14 and the cash. I figured it would be around ~11 USD? So my 350 shares turn into ~120 NEM diluted shares?
> 
> It will be a loooooong time before I can cover my loses from G and the buy out.




... but you won't be able to claim the loss in G/GG, since it was a loss disposition into a TFSA & those losses cannot be claimed ...

i'm baffled why you contributed G/GG in kind to USD TFSA? IIRC from your first posts some time ago re G/GG options, your cost in G was roughly CAD $26 & change? so there's a big notional loss on paper?

i'd meant to post to you at the time, Don't journal G/CAD to GG/USD if you are a TD client, because the big green will write down your cost base using the FX rate of the date of the journal (they are quite wrong of course, but the TD bureaucracy is very stubborn on this issue, so there's not much one can do)

but now you've journalled into your US TFSA, which means no claimable loss anyhow. 

agDriver the above are painstaking details. However - if you can see the point - it's not impossible to undo the TD TFSA contribution, ie get those shares back into CAD non-registered account where at least you will have a taxable loss if you sell them. Or if you sell the newmont shares which you will receive if the buyout goes through.

how to get the goldcorp shares back? keep in mind that the brokers are not reporting registered account contributions to the CRA on a frequent basis. As altaRed has mentioned, brokers do a big data dump perhaps once or twice a year. So it's entirely likely that your in-kind contribution of goldcorp shares to USD TFSA is just sitting in TD's back office data room, doing nothing for the time being.

you can ask to undo the contribution. Some representatives may not be willing to help you initially; however there are ways to fix that bridge if you get to it.

.


----------



## doctrine

In the quest for growth, gold companies are mining the best quality and least expensive cost in the fastest way possible at lowest marginal value. I'm not sure who the winner here is, expect the Indian and Chinese buyer who gets to purchase it at very low markups with none of the execution, political, union, worker death, or any of the extensive and exhaustive lists at the very back of the financial reports. 

The only guarantees on this merger is the combined company will have less production in just 5 years than the individual companies have now and that it is virtually certain anyone who bought Goldcorp shares 5 years ago on the promise of investing in the very best quality and safest miner in the world will ever see their money back. But the company will get to gloat about its high production and reserves. More hidden is the per share metrics of those values.


----------



## m3s

G.TO Corporate Action
On Tuesday, April 23, 2019, NGT.TO(NEWMONT GOLDCORP CORPORATION) will complete acquisition of G.TO(GOLDCORP INC). Newmont Mining Corporation acquired all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Goldcorp for 0.3280 of a Newmont share and USD cash of $0.02 per Goldcorp share. All of your G.TO shares are affected by this change. What is happening to my shares? The new share payment will use a 328:1000 ratio. The number of G.TO shares you own will be reduced. For example, if you have 1000 shares of G.TO now, you will have 328 share of NGT.TO plus $20 USD. What else do I need to know? All open orders for G.TO will be cancelled on Tuesday, April 23, 2019 before trading begins and your account will be updated to reflect the acquisition. Once completed, shares of NGT.TO will be immediately available for online trading.


----------



## james4beach

This would make a nice postcard to send to the company executives. Link to the chart.

Gold bullion is shown in gold colour (including storage fees & expenses), with Goldcorp stock in black. In the last few years, gold is up, G is down.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------

