# Best first quarter results in 14 years!!



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

What a quarter we just had!! The U.S. markets just experienced their best first quarter results in 14 years!!!

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/L...eet-closes-out-best-first-quarter-in-14-years

Buy during periods of maximum pessimism and sell during periods of maximum optimism. Most investors get that exactly the wrong way around.


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## stephenheath (Apr 3, 2009)

Mods... I think someone hacked Belguy's account... this one seems too positive to be the real Belguy 

(Sorry, couldn't resist the ribbing, but seriously it's been a great quarter and it's good to see you posting again... your threads are always my favorites other than the "what are you buying/selling" threads).


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Since October, my networth has gone up nearly 40%. Everything I bought last year, especially from August to December, has been like gold. 

I'm not planning on selling anything though since no position is more than 5% of my portfolio. I just continue to rebalance monthly by deploying money into whichever of my 25 stocks is doing the worst.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Oh no. Here's that dreaded post by Belguy.

Time to go short the market?


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Belguy said:


> Buy during periods of maximum pessimism and sell during periods of maximum optimism. Most investors get that exactly the wrong way around.


oh the irony...


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

You mean it goes like this .....

Get under the bed during periods of maximum pessimism
Come out and dry your pants during periods of maximum optimism


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

btw, TSX up just 3.7% this quarter and looks like it will be underperforming US indexes futher


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## crazyjackcsa (Aug 8, 2010)

gibor said:


> btw, TSX up just 3.7% this quarter and looks like it will be underperforming US indexes futher


I'd take a 3.7% rise a quarter every quarter for the rest of my life if I could.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Oh no, sell your stocks and hide under your beds! Our Belguy is starting to sound cheery


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

The best quarter in 14 years and it only required trillions of dollars in government funded liquidity 

I would not go short the market so soon, Europe was recently seen talking about injecting more money into the markets, enough to "shock the speculators" so that they would never sell Italian bonds ever again


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Sounds like it is a "sell in May" year. Let's hear what belguy is saying in October!


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:

-The growth-austerity divide across the euro area threatens new tensions in the euro area debt crisis. In contrast to the Fed, where we consider the threshold to additional easing to be quite low, in the euro area it is high. In our opinion, it will take a new round of financial stress to trigger additional ECB action.

-Recent rhetoric from ECB members, has been warning governments to use the current window of opportunity wisely. The threshold for *LTRO3* is in our opinion high. A viewpoint that Bundesbank President Weidmann could well reiterate Tuesday when speaks at the Frankfurt Finance Summit.

// March 19

There is only one thing you have to do to play this market... watch the central bankers, in the short term with artificial demand bandaid solutions (easing) they control everything

It's kind of surprising how poorly gold is performing with all the printing press activity going on


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Poor Belguy. Of all of the people to start this thread.

He is a great market barometer.

Although this time, I do hope the market has some traction.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Ddkay gold put in a very nice high last year and like every commodity or metal that does this goes through a long period of consolidation and poor performance. Gold stocks have also put in a horrific performance now and for the past year or so and are getting now very under owned. I believe during the great bull market for gold and gold stocks in the 70's had the same periods of very poor performance.

I think kcowan is right on the market and that is sell in May and go away. April will be a topping month and then down she goes or it could happen sooner but we will have to wait and see.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Cal said:


> Poor Belguy. Of all of the people to start this thread.


The irony indeed; must have been opposite day when he started the thread [as in being optimistic & peppy at last]. 

And what better time to come out from under the bed than in Spring!

I hope you & your investments are doing better Mr. Belguy.

Remember this is the happy:


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

for a long time they biked along Cherry Tree Lane in silence, under the canopy of snow-white cherry blossoms. Finally Alice spoke.

what bothers me is when you pretend that only an elite few know how to succeed in the arena & you are their leader, she said.

it's my napoleon complex, said the Dormouse. See, i've been the tiny guy all my life so right from my sandbox days i learned how to sit on the sidelines. But i'd keep shouting.

what about this sell in May theory, said Alice. Now you're coming out & they say you are a contrarian indicator.

april fool, cried the Dormouse.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> it's my napoleon complex...i learned how to sit on the sidelines.


This was brilliant.
You have a great sense of history, among other things


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## eulogy (Oct 29, 2011)

I'm pretty happy with the returns. The S&P500 is up 12% YTD, and up 24.5% in the last 6 months.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

An overweight in XSP going forward might be a good play.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

All the gains for the tsx first quarter have now been wiped out - 0% gain for the year


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Classic.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

and expected VOLATILITY [continuation of above mentioned].


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Belguy said:


> An overweight in XSP going forward might be a good play.


No it wouldn't. XSP lags S&P 500 returns in USD quite a bit due to the mechanics of hedging.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Actually, VUS, which is also hedged, would likely be my current choice. Management fee is a miniscule 0.15%. I don't mind paying for the hedging as I am retired in Canada and all of my expenses are in CDN $.

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/documents/literature/F9321EN.pdf


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## Barwelle (Feb 23, 2011)

In Cdn Couch Potato's interview with Mary Anne Wiley of iShares (posted yesterday), she mentioned they have new products in the works. I wonder if there will be _un_hedged US and international ETFs.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...reasons-the-market-has-topped/article2391979/


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Belguy said:


> Management fee is a miniscule 0.15%.


Management fee is only one part of the story. Currency-hedged ETFs have a history of significantly lagging the local currency stock market returns. 

http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/performance-of-the-currency-neutral-msci-eafe-index-fund/

http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/currency-neutral-sp-500-fund-versus-sp-500-returns-in-cad/


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

This thread by Belguy was such an obvious sell/short signal. I should start trading again. Too busy.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

It appears that the US economy is improving, however is not ready to have stimulus removed. Were the US economy on solid footing, the markets would easily shake off any Euro debt concerns.

A buying opportunity IMO, as we are looking at a several more months of low rates/stimulus. Hopefully the leaders will agree to release some oil reserves, to avoid any slow downs in the economy.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Heh, Argonaut, you wouldn't need to find the time if you just stayed fully invested all of the time like some of the rest of us!!! Why bat your head against the wall all of the time in an attempt to time the markets which is mainly a mug's game anyway!!??

Also, how the various indexes tracked by the new Vanguard Canada ETF's have been performing:

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/portal/ca/en/etfs/etfs.jsp#performance

Any thoughts?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

when they got to Noddy Hill Farm Alice lifted the Dormouse out of her straw bicycle basket & set him carefully on the ground.

Dorm, she said, how many times have i told you that you disqualified yourself forever with that disgraceful performance of yours under the bed. You have not got even a runty little mouseleg left to stand on.

but i have so much investment experience, wailed the Dormouse.

does not matter any more, said Alice. All that matters is that you have become a cartoon if not a laughingstock & i am the only person left who is willing to protect you.

cartoon is it now, cried the Dormouse, as real tears began running down his tiny furry cheeks. Et tu, brutus, he sobbed.

Oh, stop with that melodramatic roman caesar stuff, said Alice. I'm going into the farmhouse now to buy eggs & cream. You can stay out here in the barnyard & contemplate your past behaviour. When i come back i'll be hoping to find my old sweet lovable dormouse. All signs of megalomania gone. In the meantime watch out for the barncats.


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## Guigz (Oct 28, 2010)

^
^
^
Humble.... You shouldn't stop taking your medication like that. Either that or you need to up the dose...:tongue-new:

Someone really needs to translate this post in human.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

c'est vraie que l'histoire d'Alice in Wonderland ne sert pas dans le mythologie du québec donc est-ce possible que vous comprenez mal.

par contre des autres ici suivent bien ...


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## Guigz (Oct 28, 2010)

My experience with English litterature is limited to the adventures of Rusty James and The Motorcycle Boy.

However, you've piqued my interest my dear Humble... I will have to put that on my library wish list.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Now, we return you to the REAL world:

http://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2012/04/03/david-rosenberg-the-record-quarter/print/

And more bedtime story reading as recommended by the G&M's Rob Carrick:

http://articles.businessinsider.com...388_1_stock-market-stock-prices-market-bottom


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Does anyone alse need Belguy to provide a reading list? I thought this was a discussion forum. What does Belguy think (if at all)?

HP nice put down. Much more eloquent than I could do!


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Belguy is a genius. It is hard to be 100% wrong in predictions. So, it makes you think, is he messing with us and he's actually a really good trader?


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I am definitely NOT a trader and don't call me one!! I am a buy-and-holder! Also, am I the ONLY one on this forum who posts links to articles or might this be an example of the pot calling the kettle 'black'? Just asking!!!


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

I don't find links to news articles covering some 'talking heads' opinion on the economy particularly useful. The information is often either politicized, if coming from the mouth of someone like Mark Carney, or lacks complete evidence - from bank heads etc.

The information they spout is usually wrong anyway.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Well, nobody is making anybody click on them. If I find something interesting, I may think that others might too. I guess that is something like reading something to someone who, in turn, is totally bored with what you are reading but it is perhaps one of my not-so-great habits and so try to indulge me even if you don't click on them.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

If you would just say what you find that is useful in the linked articles, that would improve the overall value of the contribution. I usually extract a key paragraph that I think makes the link worth reading.

On FWF, there is a Financial Pornography thread that is used for most of the talking head stuff.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Happy Easter*

I know a few people who have owned a computer for years and they 
still haven't figured out the "copy & paste" thing ...
and maybe that's a good thing :encouragement:

____________________
_There is no reward in pessimism._


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

And belated Passover too!

LOL Zylon. :highly_amused::biggrin-new::biggrin::tranquillity:


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

+1 :applause: ...love those naturally looking ears! LOL!


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Maybe I missed something but I thought that was a real picture of Belguy


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> And belated Passover too!


*and to you as well.*

I watched "_The Ten Commandments_" again this weekend.
... great movie.









http://cinemacounterpoint.blogspot.ca/2012/03/jers-turn-film-recoomendation-of-week.html

Oh oh; here comes Belguy with a whip and 
telling us this is a *financial* forum!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Belguy said:


> I am definitely NOT a trader and don't call me one!!


Are you alright Belguy?! 

Don't worry, everyone knows that you are definitely NOT a trader; no need to bite Causaline's head off. :moody: 

It could have been a worse name. :single_eye: By the way, how do you like the new smilies? :encouragement:


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Beaver101 said:


> love those naturally looking ears! LOL!


They look cosmetically enhanced to me, not real at all. :biggrin:

*Zylon:* Love the movie as well! Charlton Heston is/was one of my favourite actors.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

What does 'copy and paste' mean? I don't think that I have ever used that but I know little about computers (but more than some of my age group)!!


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)




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