# Renegade Petroleum Ltd. (RPL.V)



## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

Came across this and am currently doing research. Looks promising but is high risk. They are just about to announce a monthly dividend around 9%/ann despite the rest of the sector's current risk of cutting dividends. They were originally only an exploration and drilling play but have recently started producing with the merge of Canadian Phoenix last month. 

It's cheap enough and if the monthly dividends to go through, I think it'll bode well for the price of the stock as well. 

High Risk.

It's currently at 2.41, I think I may enter at 2.35 - 2.40

Anyone got any other sorts of information?


Disclaimer: I don't own this yet... but am thinking of it.


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## Compounding1 (May 13, 2012)

It's got a high dividend yield close to 10% which should make you wonder if that's sustainable. Do your research on how much oil will have to sell for, for them to make enough money to sustain their dividend. Keep in mind they're producing light oil. I have also heard they have plans of applying for TSX but who knows about that until it happens right...

But I think you'll see the stock stay flat for awhile until people see if their dividend can be sustained or not.


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

I believe RPL plans to move to the TSX soon which is a bonus.

The dividend looks to be sustainable - at current oil price levels.

These small oil companies are getting hammered. 

I don't own it, but am going to put it on my watch list.


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

I looked at them compared to TBE and wound up buying TBE. Both high dividend juniors, but while RPL relies on high decline expensive light oil wells, TBE just pounds away heavy oil well after well at very little cost. I question the sustainability of these junior companies with high dividends. Some of these plays have ~80% decline per year on their new wells. No idea how they expect to keep up while paying out half their cash flow. Only two I would own in this area are TBE and WCP.


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

i'm taking the plunge... got in this morning at 2.39 .... here's to a speculative buy....


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## xcaret (Feb 13, 2010)

wOnger , nice mittens , does this mean your out in the cold on this stock?


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

yea, total speculative buy... got a set price point to get out... if it doesn't hit, hopefully the dividends will pay for my patience...


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

Great company, but I'm gonna see how the quarter goes before investing any money. With differentials weighing down on their netbacks (depite the hedge), I'm curious if they will try to use debt to pay any shortfall in dividends. I own TBE in this sector instead. It would have to be a pretty convincing story for me to sell TBE and buy these guys. With high decline rates and higher up front capital costs per well, I'm not sure they can get there.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Its one that i'm watching but I"m also waiting on this one. I don't know it well enough.


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

RPL took some pretty big hits for the last week... with their report from 12Q4, they've racked up their debt quite a bit, but it was from an acquisition. Most analyst reports still indicate positives for this company and they all say the dividend is still sustainable. At 1.65 (closing today), they are paying 13% dividends. 

I have increased my position and have decided to no longer add. I'll just let this ride out from here... keeping my fingers crossed for this speculative stock...


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## rassmy (May 7, 2010)

had small position, sold it at 2.07 with small losses, I could buy it back after I see their earning release.


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

Increasing debt and sustainable dividend is an oxymoron IMO.


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## Compounding1 (May 13, 2012)

I think a lot of divy investors fled because at 13.5% yield this dividend doesn't look sustainable at all. They need to focus on debt and maybe even go back to basics as a growth stock.


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

Compounding1 said:


> I think a lot of divy investors fled because at 13.5% yield this dividend doesn't look sustainable at all. They need to focus on debt and maybe even go back to basics as a growth stock.


RPL has just recently completed transitioning to a dividend paying corporation ... 17 December 2012 ... "Renegade Petroleum Ltd. Announces Closing of Strategic Asset Acquisition to Become Income Plus Growth Dividend Paying Corporation and Achieves 2012 Exit Guidance of 8,000 boe/day".

My understanding, RPL is in the state where the growth funds are in an obliged to sell and the dividend funds are in a show me. The pattern I understand is typical ... today was encouraging ...


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

rikk I remember you bought atp before, you still holding it ?


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

blin10 said:


> rikk I remember you bought atp before, you still holding it ?


Nope, sold ... I bought on that first dip, was a knee jerk reaction because I'd held would have been in 2010/2011 (was before I retired in May 2012) and did quite well by it ... did some reading, decided to sell, managed to sell on that first "bounce" ... haven't looked at it since ... edit: won't be revisiting, traded for many years as a hobby just to learn a bit about how the world works (conclusion ... good question), was an excellent learning experience, recently set aside $20K in TFSA to dabble and try to make a few $$s towards income tax, thought I'd learn a bit about light oil, took an interest in RPL, interesting ... how to put a price on a company that converts to dividend ... RPL will I'm pretty sure be my last interest ... virtual stop loss at $1.47 to preserve my $20K ... end of story. 

I'm not uncomfortable with RPL ... sleeping just fine which is what matters to me these days ... we'll see :encouragement:

OT: Fwiw, another site ... http://www.stockchase.com/company/view/3798


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

Bought 1000 RPL at $1.67 ... so far today bid sizes are actually larger than the ask sizes ... now that's a change :encouragement:


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

rikk said:


> OT: Fwiw, another site ... http://www.stockchase.com/company/view/3798


Completely meaningless. Look at the recommendations for ARN prior to the annihilation drop in April 2012: http://www.stockchase.com/company/view/3620 One analyst in the YEAR before mentions "caution", the rest are all "buy" and lots of "top pick." Just about every one of them (myself included) missed the mark horribly. Market Call is just an analyst's way of marketing themselves.

After their Q4, I'm changing my mind on RPL. I'd be worried holding this name. The debt problem here could get bad. Debt is already VERY high (albeit not ARN high), BUT they also pay a big dividend which ARN did not. It's a little unclear right now, but I'd roughly estimate debt/CF be in the 3.3 range which is scary. IMO, any oil company with debt/cf over 3 is in rough shape, and any over 4 is unsustainable.

I'm really glad to hold TBE instead.


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

I took some profits this morning to reduce my risk... this is, as I mentioned before, a completely speculative buy. I'm bullish on their ability to handle their debt and I like how their management is going so far.


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

Feruk said:


> Completely meaningless. Look at the recommendations for ARN prior to the annihilation drop in April 2012: http://www.stockchase.com/company/view/3620 One analyst in the YEAR before mentions "caution", the rest are all "buy" and lots of "top pick." Just about every one of them (myself included) missed the mark horribly. Market Call is just an analyst's way of marketing themselves.
> 
> After their Q4, I'm changing my mind on RPL. I'd be worried holding this name. The debt problem here could get bad. Debt is already VERY high (albeit not ARN high), BUT they also pay a big dividend which ARN did not. It's a little unclear right now, but I'd roughly estimate debt/CF be in the 3.3 range which is scary. IMO, any oil company with debt/cf over 3 is in rough shape, and any over 4 is unsustainable.
> 
> I'm really glad to hold TBE instead.


The link was meant OT as in just another site if anyone's interested looking up opinions on their interests on "yet another site" ... most here are aware that what's for free on the internet is "not necessarily going to come true"  BNN, market call ... I recall a few years ago I'd watch Kevin/Amanda on BNN while on the treadmill after work ... Kevin and his buy ships, natural gas ??? The whole thing is a circus as far as I'm concerned ... and that's fine.

OT: TBE is heavy oil, right? "The Company’s combined production is weighted approximately 73% to heavy oil, 9% to light oil and NGL’s and 18% to natural gas " ... I'm interested in light oil at the moment ...


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

w0nger said:


> RPL took some pretty big hits for the last week... with their report from 12Q4, they've racked up their debt quite a bit, but it was from an acquisition. Most analyst reports still indicate positives for this company and they all say the dividend is still sustainable. At 1.65 (closing today), they are paying 13% dividends.
> 
> I have increased my position and have decided to no longer add. I'll just let this ride out from here... keeping my fingers crossed for this speculative stock...


Oops ... my apologies ... I just noticed you started an RPL thread ... Rpl.tsxv ... http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/14540-Rpl-tsxv?highlight=Rpl.tsxv ... see you there


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

rikk said:


> OT: TBE is heavy oil, right? "The Company’s combined production is weighted approximately 73% to heavy oil, 9% to light oil and NGL’s and 18% to natural gas " ... I'm interested in light oil at the moment ...


Yep TBE is heavy oil. It depends on the type of play you want to be in. TBE is repeatable, cheap, vertical, and concentrated. That's what works about it for me as a dividend play. They drill dirt cheap wells with decent rates and make money despite the reduced value of heavy oil. RPL is more one-offs, expensive, horizontal, and spread out. It may or may not work, but it's unproven. You've got debt risk and acquisition risk here and the market's telling you to be afraid. At the end of the day, these are income stocks now, not oil juniors. Who cares what they produce as long as they make money?

On a side note, if you're set on light oil, why not look at WCP? They're my personal favorite in light oil.


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

rikk said:


> Oops ... my apologies ... I just noticed you started an RPL thread ... Rpl.tsxv ... http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/14540-Rpl-tsxv?highlight=Rpl.tsxv ... see you there


no apologize necessary....


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

Feruk said:


> At the end of the day, these are income stocks now, not oil juniors. Who cares what they produce as long as they make money? ... On a side note, if you're set on light oil, why not look at WCP? They're my personal favorite in light oil.


Why not WCP ... mainly because this is intended to be a Renegade Petroleum Ltd (RPL) thread ... not TBE, not WCP, not ARN ... RPL :friendly_wink:


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

In for 2000 at $1.60!


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## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

^nice buy


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

We'll see - this is my one step into stock buying - that's all my little pool of play money - once it's gone it's gone


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

your one step? use caution my friend... RPL is part of my speculative buys which account for less than 5% of my portfolio... all the best to us tho!


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## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

You should buy back in wOnger at the lower price.


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

Sold RPL just now at $1.58 ... I'll keep watching but geez everything e.g. SU is going down so who knows ... currently holding a $90K GIC at 2% which will pay my RPL loss  ... if I don't get back in ... and cash.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i am so not getting this.

why are people running to an obscure energy paying north of 14% on a possibly unsustainable dividend?

none i thought you said you had sworn off individual stocks & retreated to strictly etfs & nothing but etfs, on the grounds that individual stock research was far too time-consuming & challenging.

if that's the case, why not at least pick a quality hydrocarbon with history of stable dividend whenever some craving for a tempting stock morsel does manage to overcome your strict new diet ...


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> i am so not getting this.
> why are people running to an obscure energy paying north of 14% on a possibly unsustainable dividend?
> none i thought you said you had sworn off individual stocks & retreated to strictly etfs & nothing but etfs, on the grounds that individual stock research was far too time-consuming & challenging.
> if that's the case, why not at least pick a quality hydrocarbon with history of stable dividend whenever some craving for a tempting stock morsel does manage to overcome your strict new diet ...


You're right. I think this may have been a mistake. I need to work on the 'sticking to the plan' and not fall into wishful thinking. Dumb.


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> i am so not getting this. why are people running to an obscure energy paying north of 14% on a possibly unsustainable dividend?


Hmmm ... running ??? I'm an old guy, I don't run ... I just appreciate learning about something new to me, and a _little_ speculation now and then ... I'm not an investor like most here ... it's a hobby for me.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

The speculation part is fine, it's the dividend that's a huge red flag.

Anyone remember PSN? It went puff [or poof as avrex would say], in days!


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> i am so not getting this.
> 
> why are people running to an obscure energy paying north of 14% on a possibly unsustainable dividend?
> 
> ...


Aha ... I think I know what you're so not getting ... it's the 2,544,880 trades today on this little guy ... RPL is/was 54% Institutions and 40% Mutual Funds owned ... interesting story imo, to be continued ... eaceful:

The theory is/was, I think, that as RPL converted from growth to dividend it would simply switch owners ... hmmm ... theory, practice, theory, practice ... well, it's kept the market makers busy a few days for sure ...


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

The high yield dividend is great...as long as it doesn't become, well, _renegade_


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

rikk said:


> Aha ... I think I know what you're so not getting ... it's the 2,544,880 trades today on this little guy ... RPL is/was 54% Institutions and 40% Mutual Funds owned ... interesting story imo, to be continued ... eaceful:
> 
> The theory is/was, I think, that as RPL converted from growth to dividend it would simply switch owners ... hmmm ... theory, practice, theory, practice ... well, it's kept the market makers busy a few days for sure ...


This was one of the reasons I thought I would gamble on this one. I am not going into it blindly. I don't like to skydive and Vegas is too far for me to gamble.

Cheers!


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

this is a gamble for me... but i'm probably not going to be investing anymore, I took some profits last week with the small bump up that it had, and what i'm invested for now can ride it out. I don't think the dividend is as unstable as people think... at least not yet. This talk reminds me of petrobakken back in the day... i played that one and rode it out into a takeover and made quite the profit on that one, and people were saying the same things: unsustainable dividends, dividend growth company conversions, etc. 

Like i said... RPL is gamble 2013. 

Good luck to us!


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

w0nger said:


> this is a gamble for me... but i'm probably not going to be investing anymore, I took some profits last week with the small bump up that it had, and what i'm invested for now can ride it out. I don't think the dividend is as unstable as people think... at least not yet. This talk reminds me of petrobakken back in the day... i played that one and rode it out into a takeover and made quite the profit on that one, and people were saying the same things: unsustainable dividends, dividend growth company conversions, etc.
> 
> Like i said... RPL is gamble 2013.
> 
> Good luck to us!


Maybe I can bring some luck to this, I bought Petrobank when it was a $1.60 too (back in 2005).

Sold it before it hit 6 though - blurg.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I appreciate the wisdom and experience of two of my fav girls on this forum, but I don't see how this is like poseidon at all. This company is not creating a product that provides no barriers for duplication or entry. Perhaps I am wrong but I consider it an oversold but highly risky play (more in line but not nearly as promising as AM was awhile back). I hope it works out the same as petrobank or bakken. I would say that it is not as secure as those especially as oil has some room to fall. I remember watching the AOI thread awhile back and would be curious to see if anyone can draw some parallels. I think a lot of people fear a high dividend payout (and rightfully so as it was my largest hesitation with this one). As mentioned above, I am prepared for this to go to zero and it is my gamble play for the year. I usually don't post my more boring or stable purchases such a large cap banks. Look forward to some insight.

Cheers

Any wisdom and criticism is welcomed.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Any wisdom and criticism is welcomed.[/QUOTE]



londoncalling said:


> I appreciate the wisdom and experience of two of my fav girls on this forum, but I don't see how this is like poseidon at all. This company is not creating a product that provides no barriers for duplication or entry. Perhaps I am wrong but I consider it an oversold but highly risky play (more in line but not nearly as promising as AM was awhile back). I hope it works out the same as petrobank or bakken. I would say that it is not as secure as those especially as oil has some room to fall. I remember watching the AOI thread awhile back and would be curious to see if anyone can draw some parallels. I think a lot of people fear a high dividend payout (and rightfully so as it was my largest hesitation with this one). As mentioned above, I am prepared for this to go to zero and it is my gamble play for the year. I usually don't post my more boring or stable purchases such a large cap banks. Look forward to some insight.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

Story, short, one version ... debt, spring flooding tbd, delays tbd ... debt could take some time to pay down tbd ... oversold ... tbd

Weather, debt, oversold ... this story has everything ... Canadian :victorious:


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

londoncalling said:


> I appreciate the wisdom and experience of two of my fav girls on this forum ... I usually don't post my more boring or stable purchases such a large cap banks.


OT: Not to hijack the thread, I tend not to post the mundane either, but I could not resist 2000 shares of COS at under $20 on Friday ... COS specifically for their syncrude, light crude oil, and maybe also for the dividend ... banks, oil sands ... too big to fail?


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

The company is on track as far as production targets go and are well hedged(net of royalties into 2014) in regards to pricing. The payout ratio is lower than many others in the sector. At projected production of 8000 boed and light oil pricing of 81.50they will have a 94% payout. Most of the dividend juniors are paying over 100%. They have a good land base and good netbacks. They have lots of reserve growth. What is happening to RPL has happened to PBN, CPG et al. 

I think the freefall in share price is due to several factors.

1. Energy, and commodities in general, are out of favor at this time. 
2. The switch to a dividend model from a growth model has caused a large turnover
3. The volume (ridiculously high) is showing some manipulation (If you look at who is buying and selling you will see the evidence)
4. The stock was over priced
5. Fears of flooding which will delay breakup this year.
6. The costs of previous acquisitions was underestimated/understated. This created a lot of fear for investors. 

Due to the decline management has some options. 

Promote a DRIP program to alleviate payout
Provide a share offering to cover debt (CPG does this all the time)
Cut the dividend (already priced in)
Suspend the dividend


It is still a show me story. It could go either way with RPL. In a few quarters, if production stays on target and share price will recover and dividend yield will move down and fear will subside. *Or* they will miss targets cut/suspend the dividend and there will be further price declines. Perhaps I got in too soon but that is why one buys in tranches. It allows an investor a 2nd or 3rd chance to rethink a play. Currently, I am down 2.5%. I have sympathy for those that bought in at higher prices.

Also if the share price declines too far they may be taken out either by acquisition or insolvency. Of the two. I would prefer the first one. 

I will again concede that the play is high risk/high reward. Buyer beware.

Cheers


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

londoncalling said:


> I don't see how this is like poseidon at all.


*LC:* sorry for the confusion, but I wasn't comparing the companies per se, just their goofy dividends. Some folks have gotten burnt for being mostly yield-focused & hungry [rather than fundamental/story-focused], and that had been my point, but not saying that that's the case with any here. 

*PSN,* a spun off from Open Range Energy in late 2011, and the so called 'dividend star' of 2012, ended that year just above a $1, ie: in penny stock category, but it was still paying a dividend at that stage; now, if that's not goofy, I don't know what is. 

*RPL* is also a penny stock & currently paying a 15% dividend yield, and this despite sitting at nearly -60% below its 52 week high.

A 15% dividend yield from an established company with low debt, etc., is one thing [still extremely high], but from a penny stock it makes no sense to me. 

I don't get the dividend at all, is it for pumping purposes [what 1st comes to mind]/don't they need the capital at this stage/don't they have any operating challenges? I don't know, and to be fair, I actually know nothing about this company's cash flow/debt or anything else.

As the saying goes, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is; it certainly was the case with PSN.

Good reminders in this article:

“The market is ruthless. *One stumble and you get pummeled.* The message is: don’t disappoint,” added the participant, noting that former favourites including Pengrowth Energy Corp. and Fortress Paper Ltd. have been affected."

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/21/companies-beware-investors-dont-like-surprises/

Btw, some of the comments made [by me & others], are not meant as direct/personal criticism, just general comments, or warning if you like, as many people read the forum, not just those invested/talking about it here.

A success story, like AOI, would be great to hear. Good luck!


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Thanks for the clarification Tgal. I always appreciate your insight. I wasn't taking it as personal criticism and I am definitely open to criticism and other views. It either quickly opens my eyes to error or makes me do further research on the decision. I do think the dividend is steep and may have been initiated as a drawing card. I have been going over the numbers all weekend and the dividend seems to be sustainable in the short term (end of year) assuming Edmonton oil doesn't slip below $78. I now see where your correlation w/ PSN is being made and in that regard it is true. I was reading it in regards to actual business models and activities. In that aspect they are completely different ducks. My other fear is Mr Nuttal at Sprott pumped PSN and is now doing it again with Renegade. For the most part,I ignore the analyst/salesperson in regards to investing but often find it good entertaininment.

Your article rings true of RPL. All the stars must align over the next few months for things to return to business as usual. Thanks for the heads up. Much appreciated. I will tread lightly. I am prepared for this to be another "P.O.S.eidon Adventure". I am not using money I can't afford to lose and am aware of the posiblity it could be worth 0. I doubt it will be as fruitful as AOI but I think I see a chance to make some money. Perhaps I should have waited for a reversal or confrimation before deciding to put money in. This could be a falling knife that slits my throat. On the otherhand it could be very fruitful.

Once again Tgal I always appreciate the wisdom that you and others share with the rest of the forum. 

Cheers!


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

london i don't think aoi is comparable to rpl in any respect.

aoi is an exploration junior backed by significant multinational oil $$ with over 100 years' combined experience in africa, if one takes only the 2 lundin brothers plus their father before them.

aoi will never produce oil or pay a dividend. If it can successfully define the hydrocarbon basin it's exploring, it will be sold.

another big difference is that aoi has political & military backing from as far away as washington & london. At least, this is what i see. AOI doesn't need to find an oil gusher. All it needs to do is put together enough crude oil from south sudan, ethiopia, kenya, uganda & possibly somalia to build that strategic new pipeline running to a new kenyan deepwater port at Lamu on the indian ocean.

india & china will buy all of that production. The concomitant boost to the economies of all these countries in east africa will help to suppress the influence of al-quaeda. A thriving oil industry would help prevent al-quaeda revolution, such as the one occurring in Mali right now, from developing in the Horn of africa.

at least, that's how i see what's going on.

back in canada, i don't see any government favour for renegade, or any need for govt or military favour.

as for AOI, markets are digesting - & complaining about - the fact that AOI wells drilled or in process of drilling (4 so far) have turned or are turning out to be so-so. The company is committed to a program of more than 20 wells in the region, so i imagine it cannot really assess the hydrocarbon reserve until it gets farther along.

UBS has just assigned a target of approximately $11 to AOI. That price seems somewhat high to me, personally speaking. Unless the company manages to drill a spectacular gusher, the starry days of AOI price improvement - during which it shot from 1.82 to well north of 11.00 - seem to be over.

i have AOI in tfsa. I intend to trade it as a speculative junior, same as shamaran & western zagros.

in addition, the managements & the principal shareholders of these 3 are in a different category from those of rpl.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

thks for the clarification London.
GL in ur trade.
i am not criticizing at all.
T.gal made good points about the DIvvy's partbut PSN is a total different story.
in the end it is all about the story.
i do hope u make some good coin though.
taking risk is something that people usually do not have the balls to do.
going against the grain is dangerous but can be very rewarding.
in the natural gas world sometimes it is better to be lucky than be right about a thesis.
right now my thesis is wrong .
lets see in 2 months time if i was just plain dumb by going against the grain.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

humble_pie said:


> london i don't think aoi is comparable to rpl in any respect.
> 
> aoi is an exploration junior backed by significant multinational oil $$ with over 100 years' combined experience in africa, if one takes only the 2 lundin brothers plus their father before them.
> 
> ...


thanks HP. Like Tgal and PSN I guess I should clarify. There are little similarities b/w AOI and RPL other than they are juniors (albeit seperated by an ocean) and the fact that I saw, what I perceive to be an anomaly b/w the s/p and the potential to take advantage of fear, skeptcisim and opportunity. Whilst reading the AOI thread months ago I felt overwhelmed... The fact that it was in a 3rd world and in a volatile sector(I have worked in energy and realize it is feast or famine) scared the bejeezus out of me. After watching that play unfold I learned that risk can be mitigated and volatility can be a weapon of choice for those who can wield it carefully.

I am grateful that o chimed in others chimed in to forewarn me of imminent danger. It is definitely the kind of stock one would make as a first time purchase. So for that reason alone it was good that someone spoke up. I only posted the purchase to see if it would raise some red flags. And in that regard it has as I had hoped it may. Being a procrastinator and a bit lazy at times, the replies have pushed me to following up on my research. I am convinced of the math however, there are still potential pitfalls such as break up, market irrationality and chance. Once again, thanks to the wonderful individuals on this forum for all they have shared. It kind of contradicts a saying I often use regarding the offering of advice....


"No point offering advice as wise people don't need it and fools won't take it..."

The above is not intended to prevent people from sharing as I truly do read this forum with an open heart and mind. This place has taught me more about finance than any book, podcast or tv show and for that I feel blessed.

Cheers

London


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## rknigh2 (Jun 5, 2012)

I bought and sold RPL back last late summer/fall for a basically zero gain. On top of the debt concerns, RPL is still one of the most expensive oil plays in the sector. Back then it was ~$200,000 per boepd, but even at its current "oversold" levels you're still paying ~$132,000 per boepd. They get some better netbacks being light oil, but there are plenty of heavy oil and mixed light/heavy producers selling for $20,000 - $70,000 per boepd.

That being said, RPL usually gets a fair bit of coverage and if they have some good news, it probably won't take long for the analysts to pump it back up to $3.


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

OT: fwiw ... red flags, analyst disconnect ... http://www.5iresearch.ca/blog/watch-out-for-these-red-flags


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I'm really starting to think this buy was a mistake. I may have to bail soon and take my lumps.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I don't know where the bottom is on this one but have noticed insider buying starting to take place. That must be a sign that there is some support by those in the know. I wouldn't be surpised if it goes down to $1.30 or lower. Once 52 week lows or highs are broken it is harder to find a range.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

none said:


> I'm really starting to think this buy was a mistake. I may have to bail soon and take my lumps.


At least you didn't buy at/near the 52 wk. high, so you did something very right.

You bought 2,000 sh @ $1.60; now @ $.16 loss as of yesterday's closing, you're only down 10%, or $320 [not -$3,200 had u purchased 20,000 instead of 2,000 sh], so no need to panic yet, but if you can't tolerate volatility, then you should get out & recover the balance of your investment, if that's what it will take for u to sleep at night. But don't be surprised if the stock skyrockets right after that, lol. Stocks not only go down after you buy, but they also go up after you sell. :biggrin:

As you only purchased the sh in April, you'll unfortunately not be eligible for the juicy dividend of now 16%. :upset:

I would ask you the same question you asked Lucida, that is, 'did u go with your gut'? If you can speculate with RPL, why not someone else with whatever other stock? Nothing wrong speculating once you understand what you're doing [not a total newbie I mean]/are truly engaged/on top of things, but at the learning/speculative stage, don't simply buy & hold would be my free advice.  

When you're a new speculator, you should not be waiting for the stock to go to the moon, unless you were willing to lose most, if not your entire investment. Remember: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

I speculate a lot with pharma & other stocks, but I don't do so blindly [not saying that you did that].


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

how many times I have to post same thing, insider buying doesn't mean anything...



londoncalling said:


> I don't know where the bottom is on this one but have noticed insider buying starting to take place. That must be a sign that there is some support by those in the know. I wouldn't be surpised if it goes down to $1.30 or lower. Once 52 week lows or highs are broken it is harder to find a range.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> At least you didn't buy at/near the 52 wk. high, so you did something very right.
> 
> You bought 2,000 sh @ $1.60; now @ $.16 loss as of yesterday's closing, you're only down 10%, or $320 [not -$3,200 had u purchased 20,000 instead of 2,000 sh], so no need to panic yet, but if you can't tolerate volatility, then you should get out & recover the balance of your investment, if that's what it will take for u to sleep at night. But don't be surprised if the stock skyrockets right after that, lol. Stocks not only go down after you buy, but they also go up after you sell. :biggrin:
> 
> ...


All fair points. I didn't really 'all-go' with my gut. I thought their was some fair reasoning for it from posts previously but honestly it was a gamble and in hindsite one that I shouldn't have taken (isn't that the way it always is when your stock goes down  ). Anyway, I thought I was willing to lose it all but it seems I'm not. I think I'm going to put in a stop at 1.25-130 and if it drops to that, I'll take my lumps. Lesson learned. Thanks.


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

none said:


> I'm really starting to think this buy was a mistake. I may have to bail soon and take my lumps.


 Don't panic sell. They could cut the divi. Isn't the 1st quarter report due out soon?
I wouldn't be surprised to see it bounce up soon.


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## rknigh2 (Jun 5, 2012)

I wouldn't guess where it should bounce off. But around $0.75 it is more in line with other Canadian small cap oil valuations and I would start buying then.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

blin10 said:


> how many times I have to post same thing, insider buying doesn't mean anything...


It means a little... Now insider selling means something....

the beatings will continue until morale improves....


@ Tgal... wise post as always


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Looks like a bit of a recovery today. I put a stop & $1.30 yesterday.


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

none said:


> Looks like a bit of a recovery today. I put a stop & $1.30 yesterday.


OT: Hello, fwiw, I use a "stop market" so that if the stop is reached, all shares will sell ... fwiw.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I'm feeling better today.


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

i bet!! 
I don't own any, but I own LNV.

it will be interesting to see if rpl comes out with some news next week


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

did your stop loss kick in? probably not feeling better today. 

http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C:RPL-2058920&symbol=RPL&region=C


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

It didn't. I got a call yesterday that I somehow set it up wrong but I'm on vacation and not near a laptop.


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

anyone who invests in this co has some major cajones.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

nakedput said:


> anyone who invests in this co has some major cajones.


no kidding, why even bother with these garbage companies when big boys are on sale...


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

none said:


> I'm feeling better today.


I'm surprised that you did not sell on that day given the stock almost reached your purchase price. I say that only because you had felt this purchase had been a mistake, and yet when there was an opportunity to get out & recover most of your money, you did not. 

The stock hit a high of $1.57 on April 12th/you purchased for $1.60. If you were willing to sell at $1.30, why not at $1.55 [that day's closing]. Just think about that point.

Also, if what made you feel uncomfortable had more to do with the amount involved instead of the stock itself, you can reduce your position without having to sell all.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

very good points. I'm currently on vacation and not really able to focus on it.


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> I'm surprised that you did not sell on that day given the stock almost reached your purchase price. I say that only because you had felt this purchase had been a mistake, and yet when there was an opportunity to get out & recover most of your money, you did not.
> 
> The stock hit a high of $1.57 on April 12th/you purchased for $1.60. If you were willing to sell at $1.30, why not at $1.55 [that day's closing]. Just think about that point.
> 
> Also, if what made you feel uncomfortable had more to do with the amount involved instead of the stock itself, you can reduce your position without having to sell all.


Hey none, I still love you man :encouragement:


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

none said:


> very good points. I'm currently on vacation and not really able to focus on it.


The way I see it you had your plan, you (intended to) set your stop at $1.30, you were ok with that and in fact RPL was climbing ... in the meantime, sites like CME Group are recognizing/reporting that with slowing economies don't be surprised if WTI's at $85 or so through the next quarter or two ... and so oil stocks are dropping, and that includes RPL, the impact upon which the falling oil demand is yet tbd ... it's unfortunate about the $1.30 stop but RPL's currently at $1.22 ... geez, an $0.08 difference, what's the big frikken deal ...and could even climb tomorrow ... enjoy the vacation :encouragement:


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

It's not a big deal at all and that's why I'm not sweating it. I'll take care of it once I get back from vacation. 

On vacation == don't really care.


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

none said:


> It's not a big deal at all and that's why I'm not sweating it. I'll take care of it once I get back from vacation. On vacation == don't really care.


To clarify, I meant such a big deal to others, as you've probably guessed ... yep, you are definitely in vacation mode ... nice :encouragement:


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

rikk said:


> To clarify, I meant such a *big deal to others*


You got out of this [and other trades] at a loss; why, what had been the 'frikken deal'? The above are not your [unrealized] losses, so it's easy to offer encouragement & shut the constructive criticism of others, isn't it?

I'm offering food for thought, not encouragement nor criticism per se, and I have done so *only because none has noted on more than one occasion his feeling of having made a mistake purchasing RPL.* If I would have felt that way, I would have exited with minimal losses when i had the chance [and as u yourself have done, and correctly I might add], and if i still believed in the stock's potential/story, I could have bought again yesterday for 1/3 less, hence reducing an initial investment of $3,200 to $2,400 [$1.20 instead of $1.60], and reducing it further by perhaps lowering the 2,000 initial position, *IF* I had invested money that I was actually not prepared to lose [none had not been sure about this as per his own comments]. 

And that is what I wanted none to think about, which he did not mind in the least, so why do you, *I was NOT talking to you nor will I ever talk about anything you do here,* so how about you do the same? 

It's all very easy and common-sense and anyone can figure out what I wrote, I know, yet, I didn't figure it out when I first began trading, so I'm just trying to help, jail me for that, LOL.

I have seen some of these juniors explode, and I hope that will be the case here as well, but until that happens, it's possible to reduce risk and/or get out of bad situations.


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

none said:


> very good points. I'm currently on vacation and not really able to focus on it.


Enjoy your vacation!


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

on a side note:
what would you do?

by Mike Caswell

RBC Direct Investing Inc. has filed a lawsuit in the Supreme Court of British Columbia seeking to recover money from a client after a computer error. RBC says that it accidentally credited the client with $71,819 worth of stock in a TSX Venture Exchange company, Renegade Petroleum Ltd. The client sold the stock and transferred the money out before RBC discovered the error, the suit claims.

The allegations are contained in a notice of claim that RBC filed at the Vancouver courthouse on Thursday, April 11. The suit targets Kankar Singh Bahi, a retiree living in Surrey, B.C.

RBC claims that it mistakenly credited Mr. Bahi's account with 29,625 Renegade Petroleum shares on Dec. 31, 2012. The mistake stemmed from a transaction in which shareholders of another company, Canadian Phoenix Resources Corp., received Renegade Petroleum shares in a reorganization. Through "incorrect coding" the bank mistakenly thought Mr. Bahi was entitled to the stock, according to the suit.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I would return it as soon as humanly possible. Banks are allowed to steal from people but not the other way around


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## 6811 (Jan 1, 2013)

Hawkdog said:


> on a side note:
> what would you do?


I've recently been thinking of transferring my accounts to one provider (RBC) and even opened a "Practice Account" to test the waters. The practice account promptly screwed up two orders (or maybe it was my thumbs on the keys :culpability, but that kind of problem has never happened with my current brokerage account. Thinking something's telling me to stick with ITrade.

If the error as described by Mike Caswell happened to me, I would not have taken any trading action but would immediately have informed RBC.


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

For those that are interested, another site on what's up, down, going on in oil ... they also have a newsletter which is an informative and easy read ... http://www.rigzone.com/


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## rikk (May 28, 2012)

6811 said:


> Do not regret growing older, it is a privilege denied to many.


 Nice ... I have that in my collection of quotes etc. that I come across while browsing, haven't gotten around to using it yet ... it says a lot :encouragement:


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

none said:


> I would return it as soon as humanly possible. Banks are allowed to steal from people but not the other way around


absolutely.


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

taking a hard hit on this one... bad speculation... good thing it's under 2% of my portfolio... oh well... here's to hoping the "strategic review" goes well... maybe i'll get luck with another PBN on this one...


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

What "strategic review?" They're bancrupt...


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

I am going to watch if for a bit longer, seems to be levelling out. If the dividend gets cut this one could turn positive.

First quarter 2013 results

Achieved average production of 7,816 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day for the three months ended March 31, 2013, up 114 per cent from the comparable quarter of 2012; production consisting of 95 per cent light oil and 5 per cent natural gas and natural gas liquids;
Increased funds flow from operations by 90 per cent to $27.4-million in the first quarter of 2013 from $14.4-million in the first quarter of 2012;
Paid cash dividends of $11.7-million or 1.917 cents per Renegade share per month (23 cents annualized) in the first quarter of 2013;
Disposed of non-core petroleum and natural gas properties for net proceeds of approximately $12.8-million;
Brought 22 gross (22.0 net) Viking wells on stream in west-central Saskatchewan with a 100-per-cent success rate; of the 22 net wells brought on stream, average 30-day initial production rate of 17 gross (17.0 net) wells of 55 bbl/d (barrels per day) which exceeded the company type curve by 12 per cent; in addition, company at five gross (five net) wells scheduled to have optimization operations postbreakup;
Drilled four gross (two net) wells in southeast Saskatchewan in the first quarter with a 75-per-cent success rate; of the wells drilled, one gross (0.5 net) well at a 30-day initial production rate of 130 bbl/d and a 60-day initial production rate of 127 bbl/d and continuing to be optimized; two gross (one net) wells awaiting further stimulation postbreakup; and one gross (0.5 net) well expected to be abandoned.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Got an order in for some more RPL. Idiot or Genius? Only time will tell. Regardless, the total holding makes up less than 1.5% of my equity portfolio. All the problems in Egypt, Syria etc, WTO over $100, the Brent gap < $4.00 and the US$ - C$ spread widening should all help to give the SP a bump. Increased production and improved netback should increase revenues/earnings for the second half. This will allow them to focus on debt repayment and place the stock well above its current share price of a buck and some change. I know that the dividend is not sustainable and the strategic review is leaving many guessing. However, the assets are worth a fair bit more than the current market cap reflects. Micro caps are volatile at the best of times. The entire energy sector has been beaten badly. I think the market has over reacted. GLTA


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

order got filled at 1.06 on Thursday morning. ended the day at 1.16. Fear overcame me and I sold the shares Friday morning for 1.15. Thus lowering the ACB on my initial purchase... :biggrin: All in all I would consider it a successful rookie trade. If the stock craters after the strategic review at least I have decreased the loss. 

Cheers


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

They cut their dividend by 50% ... it's a good strategic move. Anyways, i've exited completely accepting my loss as a large gamble... although, I might dip back in here and there with my "gamble" money


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

By their reaction, seems that even investors realized that the 20% yield had to go, but company still left it 2 high.

*@LC:* +1 for lowering your ACB!


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Thanks Tgal. I might make it as a swing trader yet someday....:tongue-new: I think everyone knew the dividend had to be cut. IMO they still hold some great assets and the share price indicates it is still oversold. Once they can bring down the debt this thing could gain some traction. I am not going to add to this one at all other than a possible swing trade. If oil stays high they should be able to increase revenues and earnings. If oil prices tumble lookout below...

Cheers!


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Thought I would give an update to this one.

http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=65776763&qm_symbol=RPL

This now puts me back into the green (approx. +12% in 10 months). Was away last week so couldn't act upon the news. Got a sell order in to lock in some gains. 

Just goes to show that even when you are wrong things can turn out right. I was too early on my entry and avg down. Made a nice swing trade but should have continued after the failed proxy battle as intended. Felt a bit shy on pulling the trigger and was a bit low on cash. This new deal raises some concerns for me. I think I will watch the rest of the story from the sidelines.

Cheers


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## underemployedactor (Oct 22, 2011)

Well, the big news on this one was the friendly takeover by Alexander energy. this whole thing is still a mess and still controversial especially given the failed shareholder revolt by Frontfour Capital. As I understand it, the acquisition price will be $1.55 a share, so it may be worth hanging on for a little longer.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

That $1.55 price is assumed based on receiving 2.5 shares of Alexander for every share of Renegade at a, it's not a cash offer. There will not be a dividend post-amalgamation, at least to start.


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## underemployedactor (Oct 22, 2011)

looks like after the merger there will be a 4:1 reverse split, taking 1 billion shares of the new co. Spartan down to 250 mil shares. I think you might be right to get out London. How's that for flip flopping?


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

underemployedeactor said:


> looks like after the merger there will be a 4:1 reverse split, taking 1 billion shares of the new co. Spartan down to 250 mil shares. I think you might be right to get out London. How's that for flip flopping?


At least you are consistent. :tongue-new:

I just don't like where this story has gone since the cost over runs of the purchase of additional assets, massive short selling , FF's proxy battle etc. 

Alexander recently issued warrants at 15 cents and then again at 49. When these get issued there will be massive diluton. ISTM The merger stinks. RPL is providing almost all the production and land in exchange for management and dilution. Will be interesting to watch but not with my money at risk.

Cheers


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Exited at 1.43. Had I bought below a buck I would probably be holding just for fun.


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## PatInTheHat (May 7, 2012)

Any opinions here on ALX? Started a small position at .65 after the announcement


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

they issued a ton of warrants at a lower price. One of my reasons for dumping my rpl. Major dilution could occur.


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