# Swine Flu effects on the market



## daveking (Apr 3, 2009)

Swine Flu is among us. It is not good for business.

From early reports here is the following effects on the Asia markets this morning.
1) Swine stocks took a beating (obvious)
2) Pharmaceuticals spike up
3) Aviation drops

I was not involved in the market during SARS. Anybody know the ramifications? Which companies was affected the most?


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## daveking (Apr 3, 2009)

Market is going to tank if there is a death caused by Swine Flu in the US or Canada.

Swine Flu play 
GSK - GlaxoSmithKline, flu vacine
MMM - 3M Makes the best N95 respiratory mask and everybody (infected or not) will be wearing one.
RHHBY Roche - Tamiflu vacine 
JNJ - Jonhson & Johnson, Purell hand cleanser 
BCRX - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Avian Flu 
SVA - Sinovac Biotech Ltd, Avian Flu 
NVAX - Novavax, biopharmaceutical

Of course, do your own due diligence with any investment.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

daveking said:


> I was not involved in the market during SARS. Anybody know the ramifications? Which companies was affected the most?


SARS impact on Toronto was terrible. If memory serves right, the biggest economic casualty was tourism. If this Swine flu turns out to be a severe epidemic, it will almost certainly have serious economic effects.


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## FinancialJungle (Apr 22, 2009)

The media has a way to blow mini-crises into proportion. In 2003, SAR killed 50 people in Toronto, while common flu kill 1,000 a year on average in Canada. In the end, SAR turned out to be a non-event.

With due respect, phamas may be the obvious plays for Swine Flu, but my contrarian hunch tells me to invest in the casualities instead. 

A risky play I'd consider is Mexican airport operator, Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sure (ASR.) Over the long-term, ASR should be a nice proxy to this developing nation's economy. The best time to invest, IMO, is when the stock is whipsawed by a recession and a flu outbreak. As I write this, ASR is down 12% yielding over 6%. 

I emphasize *risky*!


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## NormR (Apr 8, 2009)

Google Flu Map

The Markets on Flu


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## mfd (Apr 3, 2009)

There was more fear of sars in the US then there was in the city of toronto. I guess the media needs something to report.


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## daveking (Apr 3, 2009)

NormR said:


> Google Flu Map
> 
> The Markets on Flu


WallStreetJournal has a good map also


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## JayRoc (Apr 4, 2009)

While I realize that there are financial implications of an epidemic (the severity of which is still uncertain), I do find it quite disturbing to talk of chasing profits based on people dying.


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## Financial Highway (Apr 3, 2009)

JayRoc said:


> While I realize that there are financial implications of an epidemic (the severity of which is still uncertain), I do find it quite disturbing to talk of chasing profits based on people dying.


I understand what you mean, but there really isnt anything unethical about it. 

here is my view on Swine Flu and Stock Market


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## NormR (Apr 8, 2009)

The medical side of things ... flu fears


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## ernestmanning922 (Apr 29, 2009)

If the current swine flu epidemic progresses in a similar fashion.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

In the Globe & Mail today:

*
Keep fear-o-meter on low for now*



> To reiterate, swine flu remains a travel-related infection that has affected relatively few people.
> 
> So far, the outbreak of swine flu news coverage has been far more severe than the outbreak of the disease itself. The good news is that there are stark differences in the response of politicians and public-health officials to swine flu, compared with SARS.


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## Jon Chevreau (Apr 4, 2009)

I just blogged (and tweeted) on this, giving full credit to this forum for several of the ideas:

http://bit.ly/FgwPc


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

It doesn't look like the round-the-clock news coverage is panicking investors. S&P 500 is up since Monday and even airline stocks seem to be relatively flat.


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## daveking (Apr 3, 2009)

I'm very bearish. The market is not following fundamentals. I believe there is manipulation from the big guys to calm everybody.

This morning we have lower GDP numbers out, Swine Flu, banks needing to raise capital and what do we get? A market rally. It just doesn't add up.

Obama switched from saying "Swine Flu" to "H1N1 Flu".

Does it really make a difference that the toddler from Texas died this morning from Swine Flu is Mexican? He died in the US with US medical health care.

I closed a few positions and switch to money market.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

WHO has raised the pandemic alert one more notch, again today.

*WHO raises pandemic alert*



> American health officials explained that it is a virus that has never been seen before, which means there is no background immunity in the population, and it is spreading from human to human. That means it has the potential to become a pandemic.
> 
> "At the start of an outbreak, you don't know what the course is going to look like," Dr. Besser said. "You don't know if this is a virus that is going to fizzle out in a couple of weeks or one that is going to become more or less severe in the diseases it causes."


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## Financial Highway (Apr 3, 2009)

daveking said:


> I'm very bearish. The market is not following fundamentals. I believe there is manipulation from the big guys to calm everybody.
> 
> This morning we have lower GDP numbers out, Swine Flu, banks needing to raise capital and what do we get? A market rally. It just doesn't add up.
> 
> ...


When the market stops reacting to bad news, it's a good sign.


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## Rickson9 (Apr 9, 2009)

daveking said:


> Swine Flu is among us. It is not good for business.
> 
> From early reports here is the following effects on the Asia markets this morning.
> 1) Swine stocks took a beating (obvious)
> ...


This is a non-event for our portfolio.


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## FinancialJungle (Apr 22, 2009)

Media coverage on Swine flu has dissipated. It's interesting to note that since the thread started, pharmas have trailed S&P500 by a marginal amount, while a Mexican airline operator (ASR) is beating the market by nearly 20%. 

Even Air Canada is convincingly ahead of S&P500 before and after currency conversion.

Go figure.


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## Alexandra (Apr 3, 2009)

FinancialJungle said:


> It's interesting to note that since the thread started, pharmas are trailing S&P500 by a marginal amount, while a Mexican airline operator (ASR) is ahead of the market by nearly 20%.


I would sell those ASR stocks just before Autumn...that's when the experts predict that the swine flu will be back again.


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## FinancialJungle (Apr 22, 2009)

Maybe so, but if that's true, it's already priced into the stock.


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## jaisely (Jun 16, 2009)

Is there or will there really be a country or even a small region with mass panic in the streets? Does the Swine Flu pandemic have real potentials to kill a mass number of people even if it's only a city? What are the realistic potentials?


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