# TransAlta (TA)



## KaeJS

Looks like I bought in a little early at $20.33.

What's the issue here? Stock getting smacked with volatility today.

High $20.40
Low $20.07


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## Argonaut

Looks like the stock will bounce around from $20-$22 until the end of time. Not bad, but not good.


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## KaeJS

I placed a buy for 500 shares at $20.07 15 minutes ago.

It has bounced back from 20.08 to 20.07 6 times.

My order has not been filled.

A lot of buyers at $20.07.

I might have to settle for $20.08


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## Spidey

According to some analysts I've heard, someone or entity is dumping a massive amount of shares. Could be they just have somewhere else where they want to employ their capital.


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## KaeJS

My order got filled. 500 at 20.07.

Then the stock dropped to $20.00. 

I was kind of expecting $20.15 by the end of the day.

Oh, well. It happens.  Will hold it until I can sell at a profit.


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## KaeJS

I still am having a hard time understanding. What's the cause for the drop?

I understand markets are generally down today, but I thought low interest rates were good for utility companies that have lots of debt?

So, with the low rates down to about 2014 in the US now, shouldn't the utility companies be doing better than they are?

I understand TA is a Canadian company, but still....?

I am not worried about my position, but if anyone has ideas or knowledge to share, they would be appreciated.


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## HaroldCrump

I haven't followed TA in a while and I don't see any apparent news release.
It is possible that some news might be coming later today or tomorrow.
Maybe another lawsuit for price fixing.


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## KaeJS

^ you mean like information not available to the public?


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## HaroldCrump

Yes, either that, or some major fund/institution is getting out.
But usually in the latter case, they spread it over several days.


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## Jungle

Utilities seem to have a bond like correlation with the equity markets.


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## KaeJS

KaeJS said:


> My order got filled. 500 at 20.07.
> 
> Then the stock dropped to $20.00.
> 
> I was kind of expecting $20.15 by the end of the day.


TA finished at $20.21 today.

Not bad. Congratulations (once again) to all of my fellow TA buyers today.


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## blin10

be careful though, it's in the red when markets had a nice rally... something's not right about that


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## KaeJS

I will more than likely take my profit tomorrow if the stock is up.

I was supposed to sell my 500 shares at $20.15. I got greedy.

And, now that I've been greedy, Mr. Market will make sure that the stock goes down tomorrow.

Why? Because pigs get slaughtered.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fMO2twAkAo


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## Homerhomer

blin10 said:


> be careful though, it's in the red when markets had a nice rally... something's not right about that


This company is trading in the same narrow range for the last 3 years, and in those 3 years the markets had ups and down, TA hasn't moved, I wouldn't loose any sleep over it.

As long as one wants to simply collect the dividends and maybe trade in and out without any long term capital appreciation, this is a decent option.


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## blin10

Homerhomer said:


> This company is trading in the same narrow range for the last 3 years, and in those 3 years the markets had ups and down, TA hasn't moved, I wouldn't loose any sleep over it.
> 
> As long as one wants to simply collect the dividends and maybe trade in and out without any long term capital appreciation, this is a decent option.


agreed, it's sitting on a nice support right now but if it cracks it and markets turn bearish I can see it dropping to next major support at 18.5 on american side...


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## Ihatetaxes

A decent bounce back KaeJS at the end of the day so you ended up back in the profit zone. I picked up 230 shares at 20.05 mid day to average down from the shares I bought yesterday.


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## KaeJS

^ Good Call.


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## b_foot

Thanks for all the posters on this thread. I bought 300 shares at 20.05 today. I'm holding it for the dividends. If it gets too close to $23, I will take the profit.


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## doctrine

I like TA at $20.0x. It spends a lot of time at $22-23 so you'll get your money and dividends eventually.


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## Cal

I have to wonder if there is some sort of management fall out from the price fixing that they were doing.

http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/columnists/TransAlta+settlement+queried/5857164/story.html

Having said that, I kinda like the company, and the yield. But do not own any shares. I do have to wonder about the management, as it seems to be spinning its wheels in the $20-22 range.


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## blin10

i was thinking to pick some up today, but picked up IPL instead since it has alot more growth potential.. but ill grab some ta if it drops below 20


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## Eder

blin10 said:


> i was thinking to pick some up today, but picked up IPL instead since it has alot more growth potential.. but ill grab some ta if it drops below 20



Has TA ever had "growth potential" in the last 10 years? I'm trying to figure out why TA is on a lot of radar screens lately with their history. Can someone educate me here?


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## Causalien

Paid pumpers


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## Jungle

TA was being pumped all over the stock house forums. Now sure how it ended up here. 

You'll beat this one just by investing in the index. But a nice dividend payer @ 6% if you want that option. Don't expect large amounts of capital appreciation!


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## Spidey

Eder said:


> Has TA ever had "growth potential" in the last 10 years? I'm trying to figure out why TA is on a lot of radar screens lately with their history. Can someone educate me here?


Almost a 6% dividend that appears fairly stable. Utilities are a need item, not a want item so this one should still continue earning revenue regardless of the economy. If TA goes up even $1 per share within the next year, which seems fairly possible given the history, that's another 5%. If it goes up $2, which also seems possible given the history, that's another 10%. So assuming TA is at a bottom (no guarantees of course) the minimum return is almost 6% and the maximum return is almost 16%. I can live with that.


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## Homerhomer

Eder said:


> Can someone educate me here?


Good dividend and a tight trading range allowing to make a decent profit (say 10 per year) with fairly high level of security (in stock terms). At the time when all other utilities are at all time highs this one is behaving more like a bank account, not a bad place to park your money while you wait for the entry point into other utilities.


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## zylon

*watching the trend*


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## Ihatetaxes

I see the price bumping back up to the $21 mark just prior to the March 1 deadline for the next dividend of $0.29.


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## KaeJS

^ most likely.

But I think I'm selling 500 of my 600 shares today, just because I bought on margin. Otherwise, I would keep all 600.

I wouldn't short TA.


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## dogcom

The market overall is overbought and TA looks like a good pick to go the other way pretty much like Ihatetaxes said. If not it may drop to $19.50 in an extended downturn and I might add there if it does.


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## humble_pie

interesting theory, cause. How many pumps do you think might be here ?


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## Homerhomer

humble_pie said:


> interesting theory, cause. How many pumps do you think might be here ?


Prior to his there was only one post in this thread from a member who isn't active in this forum, so his theory of paid pumps is either a joke or a complete garbage ;-)


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## HaroldCrump

Why would anybody want to pump TA?
It is a sleepy, boring, old stock.
One needs to buy several hundred units, if not a thousand or more, to take advantage of the small price movements on this.


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## humble_pie

that's the point. One or some of the members whom you think are well-known members may in fact be pumps. You're too smart not to get it, homer. This is the internet. It's 2012. Hello.

pumps don't have to be paid btw. Usually the boiler-room-style touts get paid in stock or stock options only. Then they campaign to sell it. They're running their own book.


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## Ihatetaxes

You caught me. They are paying me in fresh fish, my favourite payoff currency.


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## humble_pie

you said it yourself HC. Look at the volume figs. Some institution recently wanted out. Somebody commenting here about sudden crazy TA chat on another forum.

institutions usually cross in the upstairs room, but sometimes when they can't cross they have to go to the retail rabble ...


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## dogcom

I suppose I just got pumped in but I bought it for the reason Haroldcrump said and that is boring, slow and sleepy or I just hold boring and sleepy cash. Of course I didn't go all out and just bought some to hold for now.


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## Homerhomer

HP et al I think you are too much into conspiracy theories ;-)

Why would anyone want to pump this stock? And who would that be:
myself
Kaej (I think his BMO connections are suspicious)
Argonaut (another banker with shady past and presence ;-)
Spidey (his avater may give it away)
Haroldcrump (I can see him making a fortune of pumping on this forum)
Jungle (got to be him)
Blin (I think him and Newbie are a team)
Ihatetaxes (I would suspect he works for CRA so he is off the hook)
B-foot (a silent type, those are always suspicious)

sorry but I don't have a time to list all the suspects, but I think Causalien is the paid pump, he is just trying to divert the attention to others so he can continue pumping ;-)

Yes it's 2012 and internet, plenty of scumbags around, doesn't seem like it applies here on the topic of most boring stock on the planet.


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## KaeJS

Homerhomer said:


> Kaej (I think his BMO connections are suspicious)


It was me. I admit it. 

I pumped to sell 500 of my 600 shares at a $0.16 gain.

Ya caught me.


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## dogcom

We have so much influence on the market on this forum so we should be careful. I wonder if the plunge protection team also posts here.


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## humble_pie

anybody want yield on a good solid energy stock ? 
volatility, so it's good for microtrading ?

i have one but i can't tell or you'd think i'm a pump.

meanwhile, look at the sheeple buying TA as a bank account over on what-are-you-buying thread ...


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## Causalien

Pumpers don't usually directly influence a low traffic forum. How they are affecting this forum is through pumps in other forums in my opinion. More mentioning means more people gets to view and and more chances of people on this forum catching it.

The behavior need to be observed over time by keeping the compensation structure of a pumper in mind. #1 $0.05 per post #2 a variable fee structure per reply of a thread. This latter structure was enacted because pumping was getting out of hand, filling every forum with useless "XXX stock will gap up tomorrow" and "Thank for your money bag holders". Which eventually turned people away from the forum and hence reducing the cost effectiveness of paying pumpers

The larger investment houses has their own computerized program that can instantly create various profiles in large volume sites. You used to be able to tell by how young their profiles are and the amount of replies. Though I doubt this can be a good indicator in the future since it is easily circumvented by expert programmers.

A typical strategy of a pumper is to create various profiles at the beginning. Half predicting one way while half predicting the other. Eliminate the ones that failed and keep the half that remained. Rinse and repeat until you get one oracle that people will listen to. This was easily blocked by forum admins by checking for user logins that have the same or similar ip within a short period of time. However, it only took about 1 year for pumper technology to keep up by routing through gateways.

And there you have it. The comprehensive pumping 101 guide to forums. Of course, now that this is mentioned. If there are any newbie pumpers on this forum, they will properly study this and change their behavior. Hopefully leading to more interesting discussions.

I don't hate you paid people, if you can bring me valid and good discussions. Because sometimes, you are right.

And pumping options doesn't really work. So I am sure that those people are legit.


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## humble_pie

i used to look at a US chat board for a small canadian mining stock that i was interested in. The vice president had at least 11 different online personae that i could count. Probably more that i missed. She had a special fetish for impersonating US military males. There were whole days when her puppets chattered to each other on the board but nothing else happened.

so successful was this miner at promoting itself that the venerable canada pension plan was moved to buy a secondary offering of its stock at $1.05. Only 8 months later the cppib was to sell all of this holding for 17 pennies.


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## Ihatetaxes

humble_pie said:


> i used to look at a US chat board for a small canadian mining stock that i was interested in. The vice president had at least 11 different online personae that i could count. Probably more that i missed. She had a special fetish for impersonating US military males. There were whole days when her puppets chattered to each other on the board but nothing else happened.


How exactly did you know the same person had 11 + identities? Are you a hacker who could follow her trail?


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## Dibs

Ihatetaxes said:


> How exactly did you know the same person had 11 + identities? Are you a hacker who could follow her trail?


Behavioural profiling . Even if someone tries to create different personalities, there are always similarities in writing style, punctuation, etc that you can catch on to.


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## b_foot

Seems like someone is losing money on TA  

Since when I am a pumper  I'm looking for stocks paying ~5% dividends and TA fits the bill. I don't care if it goes down to $15 or go up to $35 as long as they keep yielding 5%. Of course if it goes up too high and too quickly, I'm going to take the profit.


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## HaroldCrump

b_foot said:


> I don't care if it goes down to $15 or go up to $35 as long as they keep yielding 5%.


Well, if it goes down to $15 or up to $35, then it won't be yielding 5% in either case, will it


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## KaeJS

$35, please.

I wouldn't mind an extra $9k.


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## b_foot

HaroldCrump said:


> Well, if it goes down to $15 or up to $35, then it won't be yielding 5% in either case, will it


Well, it will for me since my purchase price never changed.


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## Causalien

You can track the nearest login gateway IP of the email address to determine the city and ISP. The rest is social engineering by calling up the ISP and getting an ID on the IP at the login time to the email server. This was... several years ago. I am not sure if you can still do it nowadays. Have been too busy chasing money recently to care.


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## zylon

*trading stock vs bank account stock*

Someone mentioned buying TA for a "bank account" stock? While I wouldn't do it myself,
every idea is worth exploring. After putting together a graphical comparison,
I conclude that TransAlta would be better for trading;
Emera would be more suitable as a bank account.


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## doctrine

EMA's chart looks better but its also highly leveraged to Nova Scotia. Not that Nova Scotia isn't a pinnacle of economic growth, but they are at risk of the province getting fed up with yearly 7% power rate increases and overthrowing the company in a small revolution.


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## zylon

*off topic - should be in a dedicated thread*

Thanks for that *doctrine*

I only picked EMA because it's one I've been watching for a long time, but it always seems too expensive.

Here's a list of competitors one could choose from: source

Canadian Utilities
Fortis Inc.
TransAlta Corp.
Emera Inc.
ATCO Ltd.
Brookfield Renewable Energy
Just Energy Group
Northland Power Inc.
Capital Power
Atlantic Power
Innergex Renewable Energy
Also found this Q3 2011 earnings report showing consolidated net earnings from different sources: stockhouse.com

Nova Scotia Power Inc. contributed $21.0 million
Maine Utility Operations contributed $9.4 million
Caribbean Utility Operations contributed $10.7 million
Pipelines contributed $7.0 million
Emera's Services Renewables and Other investments contributed $2.3 million
My biggest concern would be: how big is the windpower subsidy, and how long will it last?


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## Miser

Dibs said:


> Behavioural profiling . Even if someone tries to create different personalities, there are always similarities in writing style, punctuation, etc that you can catch on to.


Agree, seen it alot on various boards.


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## newbie

Causalien said:


> Paid pumpers


what do we have here?
a conspiracy theory on TA?
wow a damn boring stock with absolutely no volatility .
impressive , but anyway i guess everything is possible.
someone mentioned stockhouse , oh my


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## Spidey

I also don't think of TA as a "pump" stock. Usually that's reserved for volatile mining and oil plays. As was said, TA is way too boring - but I guess anything is possible.

I do consider it to be a reasonable leverage stock. 5.8% dividend that seems a little tight but covered. Use HELOC at 3.5% which probably is equivalent to 2% when one considers the interest tax deduction. That leaves somewhere around 3.8% real spread. Perhaps, to be conservative a 3% spread since the dividend is taxable and the real spread is variable based on individual tax situations. Interest rates appear stable for the next year or so.

Worst case scenario. I would say that would be that the dividend was cut or interest rates rise or both. Both very unlikely for the next year IMO, but one always has to consider worst case. However, as I mentioned, there is a 3% cushion. And TA is not a "fashion" stock like RIM. We tend to need electricity even during a recession. 

Best case scenario. Interest rates and TA dividend remain stable and TA reaches the previous 52-week top end of the channel at well over $23.


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## Dibs

Maybe we should add a disclaimer on personal holdings whenever we talk about a particular stock


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## Spidey

Dibs said:


> Maybe we should add a disclaimer on personal holdings whenever we talk about a particular stock


I don't think that would help because people can easily say whatever they want. It's also rather personal information. However I will say that my holdings of TA are very low. I've done a similar process with some preferred shares, REITS and other dividend stocks when I perceive that they are at a low point. So far it's worked very well and has been far out-performing my mostly passive registered accounts. I wouldn't "go to town" on any one stock with this strategy. I just think TA is a good fit into they "basket". No one should ever make a purchase based on what is said in a forum. They should do their own due-diligence to ensure that the investment is right for them.


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## Causalien

Thanks Zylon. I'll have to comb through that list one day.


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## zylon

*green energy*

You're welcome Causalien.

Be wary of highly subsidised "green" components in many companies.

This snip from tsinetwork.ca:


> ... while alternative energy investments appeal to a lot of investors on an emotional and conceptual level, many offer only limited investment potential. That’s because they may need a long time to move from the research or concept stage to profitability.
> 
> In addition, many governments around the world are cutting subsidies for alternative energy investments as they look for ways to deal with their ballooning budget deficits.


Search result for "_green stocks_":
http://www.tsinetwork.ca/category/daily/green-stocks/


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## Eder

After the death of a hundred ducks at Syncrude 2 years ago caused a world wide uproar I wonder how bad it will get when the green zealots realize hundreds of thousands of birds are killed every day by wind power in North America. 

TA has this albatross around their neck.


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## Dmoney

Eder said:


> After the death of a hundred ducks at Syncrude 2 years ago caused a world wide uproar I wonder how bad it will get when the green zealots realize hundreds of thousands of birds are killed every day by wind power in North America.
> 
> TA has this albatross around their neck.


Hundreds of thousands a day? That sounds a little hard to believe.


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## Homerhomer

You can't create energy for consuption without a damage to the environment, the issues is that some ways of doing it are cleaner than the other, and some energy sources have limted supply while other are unlimited.

I seriously doubt that hundred thousands of birds are killed each day by wind turbines, and I doubt that the number of birds killed by wind turbines is significant in comparisons to those killed by any other tall structure, or those killed by other kind of pollutions.


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## Causalien

Don't worry, I have a spreadsheet I can use from Simcity on power generation. I am currently studying Spain's power generation to determine how or if it is sustainable. When I was there traveling there, it looked really sustainable and is everywhere.


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## Eder

I think I had some stats wrong...I read that one area of turbines that is near a bird sanctuary???? and extended the kill rate to all towers. At any rate windmill kill rate is much higher than anything going on in Fort Mac.

One interesting stat to put in perspective on bird death rate...Syncrude about 1900/year...bird deaths from auto's in North America is 60 – 80 million killed by collisions with automobiles and at least another 100 million killed by collisions with windows.


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## Dmoney

Eder said:


> I think I had some stats wrong...I read that one area of turbines that is near a bird sanctuary???? and extended the kill rate to all towers. At any rate windmill kill rate is much higher than anything going on in Fort Mac.
> 
> One interesting stat to put in perspective on bird death rate...Syncrude about 1900/year...bird deaths from auto's in North America is 60 – 80 million killed by collisions with automobiles and at least another 100 million killed by collisions with windows.


Where did you get that stat? All of those seem insanely high... Granted I had heard that the # of deaths from collisions with skyscrapers was extremely high, but I didn't think it was in the 100's of millions.

Edit: Mostly answered my own question... http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4134773.../plate-glass-blamed-billion-bird-deaths-year/
Still seems insanely high and unbelievable. A billion birds? Wow.


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## Causalien

One need to start looking at birds as flying rats. Then the emotions go away and the numbers become believable.


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## Eder

I was trying to illustrate a bit of the bs we have to swallow every day from the green agenda. I kinda failed but still it get me mad. 

A great Canadian industry gets crucified (oil sands) but a much greater sinner (green energy) is portrayed as a rock star. Most people only watch CNN or read the Globe so have no idea how this country exists in the 1st place.


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## Homerhomer

Why is green energy a greater sinner?


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## Spidey

It's not as if TA only generates power with wind. They are diversified amongst natural gas, hydro, coal wind and even a bit of geothermal:

http://www.transalta.com/facilities/plants-operation


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## Eder

Spidey said:


> It's not as if TA only generates power with wind. They are diversified amongst natural gas, hydro, coal wind and even a bit of geothermal:
> 
> http://www.transalta.com/facilities/plants-operation


I understand TA (I live in Canmore next to many of their Hydro facilities) and did hold their stock for years, but sold all last winter. I like the company but their management is poor, they have shown year after year they are happy with no growth and little return to their shareholders. 

Sinking precious capital into buying wind farms is a bad choice (at the time they werent earning enough to cover their dividend)...and that strategy was the last straw for me. 

The bird thing was some mindless research I am doing on "green energy" and I am convinced more & more that fossil fuel & nuclear energy to produce electricity is more important than ever going forward, that wind energy is a waste of time as is solar on a large scale. I wont go into the downsides and turn this into a book but our society is getting fed bigger & better bs every year on this.


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## Spidey

I tend to agree with you regarding wind, but with governments like Ontario providing huge subsidies and from a public relations perspective companies like TA probably have to get involved. Regarding management there is a new CEO. I don't know enough about her to comment much, but FWIW I listened to her web-broadcast from the Whistler Conference and she has been disappointed with the past growth profile and made a point that she has a goal of improving this aspect of the company. Time will tell.


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## Homerhomer

Eder said:


> I wont go into the downsides and turn this into a book but our society is getting fed bigger & better bs every year on this.


Even bigger bs than the millions of birds being killed each day? You seem to be making strong statements but you don't provide any reasonable back up for them ;-)


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## ddkay

Nuclear is green energy, its the same process that produces geothermal heat


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## Ihatetaxes

Sold all shares of this today. Better opportunities out there.


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## Causalien

Yep. RENN

I actually find it eerily odd that no one is mentioning this stock considering how much it rose. This and Facebook. Isn't Facebook supposed to be the IPO of this decade? Yet, no thread no mention.


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## newbie

KaeJS said:


> $35, please.
> 
> I wouldn't mind an extra $9k.


did u trade it today?


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## KaeJS

I didn't check the market at all today. 

Still haven't gotten home yet from Montreal. Posting from my phone.


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## newbie

KaeJS said:


> I didn't check the market at all today.
> 
> Still haven't gotten home yet from Montreal. Posting from my phone.


ha
enjoy ur stay.
got a question for ya.
why do u hold companies that pay divys?
the only reason i am asking u that is because i think u can buy the same just before divy deadline and collect divys.
timing is crucial though.
not criticizing ur system , just curious.
if u decided to daytrade or swingtrade u need volatility.
how about ur shorting strategy , is it working?
i am short several stocks atm but like i said i had to cover since this insane rally started
GL


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## KaeJS

newbie said:


> got a question for ya.
> why do u hold companies that pay divys?
> the only reason i am asking u that is because i think u can buy the same just before divy deadline and collect divys.
> 
> how about ur shorting strategy , is it working?


I hold these dividend payers because its riskier to trade them for the dividend. I might get "left behind" if the stock flies up, and if the dividend is paid and the stock doesn't rise past the dividend payment, I'm stuck holding it anyways. This would incur more commissions, as well.

I rather just hold them and sell them if necessary.

As for shorting, I have only shorted once in my life, and that was last week lol. I don't know if I'm 100% comfortable with shorting yet. I need to give myself more time.

It is hard to trade when you work a day shift.

I have actually been thinking about asking to go on the night shift in order to try and trade during the day. I'm not sure yet, though. I don't feel I'm good enough at trading and I really don't want to work nights if I can't make at least $100/week in the markets after taxes and commissions.


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## newbie

KaeJS said:


> I hold these dividend payers because its riskier to trade them for the dividend. I might get "left behind" if the stock flies up, and if the dividend is paid and the stock doesn't rise past the dividend payment, I'm stuck holding it anyways. This would incur more commissions, as well.
> 
> I rather just hold them and sell them if necessary.
> 
> As for shorting, I have only shorted once in my life, and that was last week lol. I don't know if I'm 100% comfortable with shorting yet. I need to give myself more time.
> 
> It is hard to trade when you work a day shift.
> 
> I have actually been thinking about asking to go on the night shift in order to try and trade during the day. I'm not sure yet, though. I don't feel I'm good enough at trading and I really don't want to work nights if I can't make at least $100/week in the markets after taxes and commissions.



fair enough K.
i agree with the divys thinking and that is what mostly happens because everyone wants the divys.
shorting can be a tough and dangerous play and can also go against u.
but same thing happens with options trading.
nevertheless lets take MFC as an example.
it has about 63 million shares shorted and possibly the most shorted stock on the TSX.
it looks like insurance companies are really hated in canada.
if u were to also short that stock u have to pay divis for the holders of the stock on top of it.
nevertheless , lets say that for some miracle the stock rallies .
u get that ominous phone call right?
u have to obviously cover or loose ur money . but think about something for a sec.
u can benefit from the rally .
u buy back the shares and up u go.
remember that this is just an example and do not take this as an advice.
so it is a double edged sword, in the sense that shorts can benefit from a rally also right?
do some more reading about shorting before u really venture in it .
sign up for stockwatch so u can see shorts positions, it is not expensive and well worth the money.
I still think u r doing great and trust me i know how hard it is to trade and work.
u r wayyyyyyy younger than me and if u put ur effort now u will be well rewarded later.
again i will rephrase to u , listen to urself , it is ur money and dont pay attn to the noise
GL
happy trails
do ur own DD.

p.s
today was a blatant example of short covering.
the mkt was down by what 130 points intraday?
and then ....... bam the "rally"
was it a rally or short covering?
that u try and answer urself


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## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> As for shorting, I have only shorted once in my life


Be very careful with this. Using dividends as a bulwark in this market is wise, but don't hurt your portfolio. 

You're still very new at this & very young, so don't rush things.


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## Toronto.gal

newbie said:


> it looks like insurance companies are really hated in canada.


And can you tell me why newbie? 

Pain for short/medium-term, but long-term, after all the MFC shares I have accumulated thus far at these cheap prices, I'll be a:


http://www.siampinoy.net/community/videos/339-Billionaire+FEMALE+VERSION.html?userid=1974


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## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> And can you tell me why newbie?
> 
> Pain for short/medium-term, but long-term, after all the MFC shares I have accumulated thus far at these cheap prices, I'll be a:
> 
> http://www.siampinoy.net/community/videos/339-Billionaire+FEMALE+VERSION.html?userid=1974


damn do u make me laugh lol

anyway GL with MFC 
are u shorting it


----------



## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> Be very careful with this. Using dividends as a bulwark in this market is wise, but don't hurt your portfolio.
> 
> You're still very new at this & very young, so don't rush things.


K
on second thought , i would take her advice.
if u do not just be carefull


----------



## Spidey

TA is @$21 today. Quite a nice one month return. My only regret is that I was too chicken to buy more around $20.00 as I was a little spooked by someone dumping shares. In hindsight it was a pretty good bet.


----------



## al42

Spidey said:


> TA is @$21 today. Quite a nice one month return. My only regret is that I was too chicken to buy more around $20.00 as I was a little spooked by someone dumping shares. In hindsight it was a pretty good bet.



someone bought a big chunk yesterday.

http://www.tmxmoney.com/HttpControl...uage=en&Submit=Submit&QuerySymbol=ta&x=57&y=8


----------



## Echo

Eder said:


> I understand TA (I live in Canmore next to many of their Hydro facilities) and did hold their stock for years, but sold all last winter. I like the company but their management is poor, they have shown year after year they are happy with no growth and little return to their shareholders.
> 
> Sinking precious capital into buying wind farms is a bad choice (at the time they werent earning enough to cover their dividend)...and that strategy was the last straw for me.


I owned TA for less than a year before I realized what you said above. Bought in at $21 in October 2009 and sold it in March 2010 for $23. At the time the dividend payout was well over 100%. I don't follow it any more, but I see this stock hasn't gone anywhere since.


----------



## Financial Cents

Toronto.gal said:


> And can you tell me why newbie?
> 
> Pain for short/medium-term, but long-term, after all the MFC shares I have accumulated thus far at these cheap prices, I'll be a:
> 
> 
> http://www.siampinoy.net/community/videos/339-Billionaire+FEMALE+VERSION.html?userid=1974


I'm going to be buying MFC soon as well. You have company in buying stocks at cheap prices


----------



## Jungle

Transalta EPS .13 vs .22 !! 

Stock is down on this.


----------



## doctrine

Do not like. Probably getting out of my year old position. I can sell without a loss and keep my 5.5% dividend. Most disappointing aspect was the 10% decrease in revenue to go along with 75% lower profits.


----------



## KaeJS

Thinking about selling mine.

I can get out now without a loss.... But I'm thinking maybe I should just hold this one to eternity. I only have 100 shares and I've previously traded it.

Seems like they need to pull their act together. They don't do a very good job of covering dividend payments, do they?


----------



## doctrine

There are utilities, like Fortis and Emera, that do not pay dividends out of the share price, like Transalta and other lesser utilities do. Although Fortis and Emera have a much lower yield, they have a bright future, increasing dividends and increasing revenue/earnings potential. Therefore I will be selling TA and buying something with more future potential. It's going to take a while to turn this one around.


----------



## Cal

KJ, what was your purchase price? If you want out, and uless you bought really on the high end, set your sell price and have patience for it to get hit.

TA only seems to throw off a good dividend, no price appreciation, seems to prepetually trade between $20-22.

Agreed, FTS and EMA seem to have better upside.

ARX seems to be similar to TA in this sense, although a do think alot of boomers hold ARX b/c it pays out monthly. But ARX seems to always trade in the $22-26 range.


----------



## KaeJS

Cal, I have 100 shares at $20.33. It didn't cost me any commission to buy and it will cost me $4.95 to sell when I finally do sell them.

I own FTS, as well.

I knew TA had issues when I purchased it, however, I didn't expect them to report earnings that were this bad. 

I'm having a hard time buying in the markets right now after the huge run up, so maybe I'll just hold it until I see an opportunity I like.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Cal, I have 100 shares at $20.33. It didn't cost me any commission to buy and it will cost me $4.95 to sell when I finally do sell them.
> 
> I own FTS, as well.
> 
> I knew TA had issues when I purchased it, however, I didn't expect them to report earnings that were this bad.
> 
> I'm having a hard time buying in the markets right now after the huge run up, so maybe I'll just hold it until I see an opportunity I like.


I'm holding TA, no price appreciation, but dividends 5.7% is pretty good. I also own FTS, maybe its a better utility, but exactly like TA, FTS trading in the same sange 32-34 and FTS dividend much less and with their growth of low single digits , it will take many years until their yield will be = TA's


----------



## atrp2biz

TA and FTS are apples and oranges. One is generation, while the other is primarily distribution.

TA is being held down by their PPAs (which were enacted, unlike typical PPAs).


----------



## al42

Back in today @ $19.65.
Sold it a few weeks ago @ $21.00 and will sell it again when it gets to $21.


----------



## Homerhomer

al42 said:


> Back in today @ $19.65.
> Sold it a few weeks ago @ $21.00 and will sell it again when it gets to $21.


Good move, I missed it waiting for 21.50.


----------



## Calgary_Girl

Sold all of ours last year; don't like it. Too much BS going on there.


----------



## Kaitlyn

I'm really tempted to pick up some TA... the dividend is definitely enticing... not not if it's full of capital loss! 

FTS is definitely interesting as well. I've had it on my watchlist for a while but I just want to get in at a lower price!


----------



## dave2012

I had in an order for TA at $19.52 this morning. Figured it would go through. Missed the low by a penny and the order didn't get filled. oops.


----------



## doctrine

I sold mine at 20.18 on Monday and don't intend on getting back in. There is little chance for earnings, revenue or stock price or dividend growth.


----------



## Jungle

TA is truely a dawg. FTS much better but getting in when the price is right is another problem.


----------



## Argonaut

Can't believe there are 11 pages on TA, and even more discussion in the buying thread. They have to be the ring-leader for bad stocks that are talked about and owned too much. The holy trinity:

TransAlta
Shaw Communications
Husky Energy

Not much difference between them, the charts all look the same. Sun Life Financial can be an honorary member.


----------



## Spidey

Argonaut said:


> Can't believe there are 11 pages on TA, and even more discussion in the buying thread. They have to be the ring-leader for bad stocks that are talked about and owned too much. The holy trinity:
> 
> TransAlta
> Shaw Communications
> Husky Energy
> 
> Not much difference between them, the charts all look the same. Sun Life Financial can be an honorary member.


With recent additions of TA, I own 2 of that trinity. I've had HSE for a couple of years and I am still somewhat underwater. Still can't figure out why the market does not see any value there (Asia's richest man does), but willing to hold on until they do. In the meantime they continue to steadfastly pay the 4.7% dividend.


----------



## doctrine

I see potential in HSE, but definitely not SHAW or TA. At least if the price of oil rises to $150/barrel, you could score big with HSE.


----------



## KaeJS

This thing is getting slaughtered. Would anyone DCA at $19.00?


----------



## Spidey

KaeJS said:


> This thing is getting slaughtered. Would anyone DCA at $19.00?



Yeah. In hindsight, I jumped the gun. I think if it goes to $19.00, I will put in a bit at about $18.80.


----------



## blin10

im in at 19.27 with 200 shares, will add another 200 @ 18.5


----------



## KaeJS

I don't really want to DCA my position. I kind of just bought 100 for the 5%+ yield. However, I'm thinking I may be able to make some "easy" money with the dividend as a back up if it hits $19.00. I still can't get over their last report, though. $0.11 EPS..... wtf...


----------



## blin10

this company is a slow one in either direction...


----------



## Calgary_Girl

KaeJS said:


> I kind of just bought 100 for the 5%+ yield. However, I'm thinking I may be able to make some "easy" money with the dividend as a back up if it hits $19.00. I still can't get over their last report, though. $0.11 EPS..... wtf...


Provided that the dividend doesn't get cut. Things aren't too good over there.


----------



## Eder

They won't cut the div. They have gone thru many periods where they didn't earn the div before,and I think they even raised the div once when they lost money in the quarter. They have real assets that are worth probably $35/share...just need a team to start running TA like a business rather than a country club.


----------



## doctrine

Liking my sell at 20.18 more and more


----------



## Spidey

I just checked the TD insider report and noticed that the CEO has been doing a fairly significant amount of recent insider buying at an average price of $19.71. Always an encouraging sign.


----------



## KaeJS

This stock is garbage.

I am so unhappy with my purchase. TransAlta definitely takes the cake for Worst Stock of the Year Award.

I'm torn between selling or holding. My brain tells me that I'll be able to get out at $20 again in the future, even if I have to wait a year. Yet, my stomach is churning when a $19 stock is dropping 30 cents a day.


----------



## Homerhomer

Did a small purchase under $19 hopefully for a quick trade, if not 6% dividend will keep me happy.


----------



## al42

added a bit more today...need to have a bit of patience with this one due to bad last QTR.
But 6% divy will help while waiting for it to go back to $21.00 range.


----------



## KaeJS

Homer and al42, you're either both completely nuts or damn geniuses!

Time will tell. For all our sakes, I hope you guys are geniuses. I don't have the balls to buy more TA.


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> Homer and al42, you're either both completely nuts or damn geniuses!
> 
> .


I think Al is nuts and I am a genius ;-)


----------



## al42

Ha Ha...It looks like we're both nuts as I watch it go lower and lower. It hasn't been this low since mid 2004.
Must be the short's selling this down?


----------



## blin10

with stocks like these you need to know what you getting yourself into, this is a slow moving stock and it's not for trading especially for you on margins and all that... this one is for parking $ for months+, if it recovers it might take a while



KaeJS said:


> This stock is garbage.
> 
> I am so unhappy with my purchase. TransAlta definitely takes the cake for Worst Stock of the Year Award.
> 
> I'm torn between selling or holding. My brain tells me that I'll be able to get out at $20 again in the future, even if I have to wait a year. Yet, my stomach is churning when a $19 stock is dropping 30 cents a day.


----------



## KaeJS

al42 said:


> Ha Ha...It looks like we're both nuts as I watch it go lower and lower. It hasn't been this low since mid 2004.
> Must be the short's selling this down?


Except for March 6, 2009 when it hit $17.96

The waiting game is what I'll play.


----------



## Argonaut

Leader of the holy trinity of low quality overbought on CMF stocks. One gets what they pay for. 

I can picture Rabbit from Winnie the Pooh. "Why, oh why, oh why?"


----------



## Jungle

Wow this thing is dying quite well. What point is a buy? I know it's a dog and the company sucks. But the dividend is ok and to sell again once it goes up.. hmm


----------



## KaeJS

This might actually become a nice trading stock. As the price keeps falling, buyers and sellers are going to wonder which price is worth it. This will create volatility.

I almost jumped in 500 shares today at $18.88, but chose not to...


----------



## londoncalling

I have considered buying this one as well since the last quarterly was released. so far I am glad I haven't dived in. I do think it will recover to the $21.00 - $22.00 range at some point. There just may be other places to put my money so today I am definitely glad I bought BPF yesterday than TA. Will I think that in 6 months who knows?


----------



## doctrine

It's true it could be oversold. You could make a nice 11-12% in a year at this level, if it returns to $20 + dividend. 

Or, it could stay at $19 for a long time like some other utilities that have a huge payout (ATP, Northland Power). 

My next utility purchase will be to top up my Fortis stock, which only pays out 65-70%.


----------



## Cal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ta-still-fighting-a-downtrend/article2379308/


----------



## webber22

I too was taken into the degenerate camp by buying this stock last month  The good news is it could POP if thing go it's way 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-stock-thats-run-out-of-juice/article2383355/


----------



## Jungle

Down again today.. 

I read in the Globe they have the cash flow to pay the dividend and it might take a couple of years before they come back. They need to get some coal plant issues sorted out and legal battles.


----------



## Cal

I think FTS is a better place to put my investing money for this sector at this time...


----------



## Eder

Can anyone with a paid Morningstar account let us know why they give TA a four star rating?


----------



## gibor365

Eder said:


> Can anyone with a paid Morningstar account let us know why they give TA a four star rating?


I don't have Morningstar acc, but from S&P report: "We view TransAlta as a well-managed independent
power producer (IPP), and we like the
clarity of its financial statements.We also view
positively its expansion program, which includes
rerates as well as greenfield and brownfield
development and a combination of renewable
resources and traditional plants.We believe
TAC's policy of signing long-term contracts
for output from its power plants reduces
risk.We see the stock as fairly valued."

After ;ast bad earnings they lowered Target proce to $21. Recommendation Hold, S&P Credit Rating BBB, Quality Ranking B.


----------



## Eder

OK I got Morningstar criteria to see why TA gets 4 stars....



What determines whether a stock gets 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 stars?
The Morningstar Rating for stocks system identifies stocks trading at a discount or premium to our estimate of their fair values. Generally speaking, stocks trading at large discounts to our analysts' fair value estimates will receive higher (4 or 5) star ratings, and stocks trading at large premiums to their fair value estimates will receive lower (1 or 2) star ratings. Stocks that are trading very close to our analysts' fair value estimates will receive 3-star ratings.

A stock's star rating is driven by its level of expected return. For example, 3-star stocks are those that should offer a "fair return," one that compensates for the riskiness of the stock. Five-star stocks, of course, should offer an investor a return that's well above the company's cost of equity, and high-risk 5-star stocks should offer a better expected return than low-risk 5-star stocks.

The riskier the stock, the greater the discount needed to earn 5 stars or premium needed to hit 1 star. 



Of the stocks I own only Rogers & Shaw are also rated 4 stars by Morningstar. Oh well I think maybe that site is out to lunch haha.


----------



## Jungle

Whoa the market is pricing in a dividend cut, did not think I would ever see this in the $16 dollar range!! 

Anyone touching this at $16?? Dividend yield like 7%!!


----------



## blin10

i am slowly, today picked up 100 shares



Jungle said:


> Whoa the market is pricing in a dividend cut, did not think I would ever see this in the $16 dollar range!!
> 
> Anyone touching this at $16?? Dividend yield like 7%!!


----------



## webber22

It was a G&M article appearing at 12:45pm today - the same time the stock took a deeper dive. I've noticed RBC Capital markets was unloading the stock for the past few weeks. TA should start takeover talks or something with TRP .....


----------



## HaroldCrump

^ as a TRP shareholder, I strongly object to it 
The last thing we want is to take over their mountains of debt (not to mention the under performing coal plants).
Also, TRP and TA are currently locked in a legal dispute.

As for the stock, I sold out sometime early last year for just over $21 and that appears to be quite close to its 2 year top.
Never considered it again.

I recall even then RBC was dumping this stock and their analyst had recently downgraded it and set a 1 yr. price target of $19.
As usual, the analyst was being optimistic


----------



## scomac

Me too. The 10 yr. low is something in the order of $15.80 hit on several occasions when the stock double bottomed in 2003-2004. If the stock drops into the $15 range, I'll buy a bit more. Then, we'll just have to wait and see. There's a fair bit of tangible book value per share and the company churns out a lot of cash flow, so while they maybe in legal entanglements, they are far from toast, IMO. With safety being so highly sought after and so expensive to purchase, this is probably a very good time for a bit of speculative risk taking. Just think about what the other power producers are selling for.


----------



## Jungle

Yea at $15 levels, 50-100 shares, you are not going to lose your shirt over $500-$1000 invested. hmmm


----------



## Homerhomer

The minute I got into this stock for a bit of yield and tight trading range, it broke the support and has been going nowhere but down, maybe I am suffering from the Belguy syndrome ;-)

Have been adding a bit in the last couple of days, which at least for the time being doesn't look like a smart move ;-) I will probably add a bit more below $16 if it gets there.


----------



## Barwelle

Similar story here... except it was my first stock ever to buy. Wanted to make my own version of the 5-pack portfolio that's floating around here. Bought in January, thought of selling at 21 because of reading a few comments on this forum about their future problems. Didn't because... I donno, couldn't pull the trigger, I suppose because I keep reading about how utilities is a very steady sector. Now I'm scarred for life! :biggrin: Just goes to show that you should listen to the smart people on here if you don't know enough about it yourself. EDIT: Or wait to dive in until you are more learned. Or stick to ETFs.

At least it's not a huge amount of money, right now my loss is about $180.


----------



## Jungle

Google is still saying EPS is higher than dividend payment, however if profits are expected to slide , pay out ratio could be higher than EPS.


----------



## KaeJS

What a dog of a stock. Jesus.

It's a good thing I only bought 100 shares and planned to keep this for eternity.

I am currently down $375 (though, I have received $29 in dividends).


----------



## doctrine

Anyone buying into this, prepare for a long turnaround. Maybe 5 years. Maybe more.



> 2012-03-07, 06:07 PM #103
> doctrine
> Senior Member
> 
> I sold mine at 20.18 on Monday and don't intend on getting back in. There is little chance for earnings, revenue or stock price or dividend growth.


No change in status from 5 weeks ago, except that everyone is catching on. Risk premium required to be an investor here, and you should probably price in a 50% dividend cut when doing so.


----------



## Argonaut

Barwelle said:


> Similar story here... except it was my first stock ever to buy. Wanted to follow the 5-pack portfolio that's floating around here.


I never associated this stock with the 5-pack.. in fact it is part of my 3-pack of most overowned and underwhelming Canadian stocks. That is putting it nicely.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> What a dog of a stock. Jesus.
> 
> It's a good thing I only bought 100 shares and planned to keep this for eternity.
> 
> I am currently down $375 (though, I have received $29 in dividends).


Same here , but with 150 shares (152 after dividends). Just hope that it's a take over target.


----------



## blin10

what have changed in the last month ? absolutely nothing, it broke a huge semetrical triangle and I bet few funds want to get out, that might be a reason for a huge sell off.. people also get nervous and dumping this thing at a loss.... there's even bigger decending triangle with a monster support at 16... as long as markets don't sink big, it has a good chance to bottom out here


----------



## indexxx

so... think it's a good time to cut losses on TA, and pick a few extra AAPLs now that it's correcting?


----------



## PMREdmonton

I'd suggest cutting losses on TA because this is a floundering company in need of new management. They have potential for a strong future but they have not invested assets well for the future. They need to cut their dividend and invest in their company to realize their potential. They still get too much power from coal and have not moved forward enough with new projects.

I'd wait on Apple - it may fall for a bit and I'd hope for 525-550 as an entry point right now. Apple needs another homerun over the next year or so or margin erosion will ensue in the smartphone and tablet worlds. I know people don't want to believe it and this time is dfferent because of Apple's ecosystem but I don't believe it because this has never been the history of electronic devices. They become commoditized very quickly and margins shrink rapidly across the board. If they want to remain relevant they should probably start selling their OS for other device makers but I doubt they'll do it. The Android system is getting stronger now that Samsung is selling nearly as many phones as Apple and Motorola will come out with something strong now that they are partnering with Google.


----------



## Barwelle

Argonaut said:


> I never associated this stock with the 5-pack.. in fact it is part of my 3-pack of most overowned and underwhelming Canadian stocks. That is putting it nicely.


A couple other people must have suggested it in a thread or threads where the 5-pack was being discussed. At the time I don't think I had read any bad opinions towards it. I'm not blaming you for my loss... I'll change the wording in that post.


----------



## gibor365

indexxx said:


> so... think it's a good time to cut losses on TA, and pick a few extra AAPLs now that it's correcting?


I don't think so, I still keep TA, hope on better upcoming report...


----------



## Eder

I've been buying up some shares...I don't like TA but they are at a level that I hold my nose & press the buy button. Power demands are not going away ever...they sell a product in demand with demand rising. If the board would clue in & fire everyone in their building perhaps they would become profitable.


----------



## blin10

Barwelle said:


> A couple other people must have suggested it in a thread or threads where the 5-pack was being discussed. *At the time I don't think I had read any bad opinions towards it.* I'm not blaming you for my loss... I'll change the wording in that post.


it's a human pshycology, when stock is stable people keep justifying how it's a good buy, once same stock sinks people right away say cut losses, that way you will never make $ lol...


----------



## webber22

Its a buy now go figure !! http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/17/transalta-a-unique-buying-opportunity-desjardins/
But beware because Desjardins had a buy rating at $21 back in December http://stocktargetprice.com/index.php?s=stock&q=ta

BMO and RBC capital markets (had downgraded TA) had several large orders filled today - it went down to 16.32 at one time. I averaged down my holdings.


----------



## gibor365

S&P also has $21 12 month target


----------



## Spidey

TA has had some fairly significant insider buying within the last few days. Looks like about 30,000 shares by various insiders, all public-market buys.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

So did MNB... AEI and many others.
no wonder .
TA is very very cheap , question is are u going to hold it?
if so buy it then.
it formed a possible classic bottom with several attempts to drive it lower but the bears just can't cross below the 16.4 area .
that must mean something, unless we have a mkt colapse, then all bets are off
cheers


----------



## Spidey

However, other stocks have insiders selling even as the stock reaches new lows. For example, I've been following BNP which contrary to TA is generally loved by the analysts. However, going by selling behavior, the BNP insiders don't appear to share the optimism. I've seen similar insider selling with ERF, which I've also been following.


----------



## Nemo2

Spidey said:


> I've seen similar insider selling with ERF, which I've also been following.


Don't blame them, on Friday we unloaded our ERF, at a loss, and replaced them with SU.......lower dividend, but hopefully higher prospects.

Now, come Monday, ERF will likely soar while SU plummets.


----------



## blin10

imo, right now is not the time to unload erf, if it will bounce from here it will make double bottom with a W shape which is very bullish, or if it will go down it shouldn't go down as much as it did already (all time low was $13usd).... a ton of people already unloaded it at a loss and big dogs trying to find bottom



Nemo2 said:


> Don't blame them, on Friday we unloaded our ERF, at a loss, and replaced them with SU.......lower dividend, but hopefully higher prospects.
> 
> Now, come Monday, ERF will likely soar while SU plummets.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Nemo2 said:


> Don't blame them, on Friday we unloaded our ERF, at a loss, and replaced them with SU.......lower dividend, but hopefully higher prospects.
> 
> Now, come Monday, ERF will likely soar while SU plummets.


i guess tomorrow u will know right?


----------



## Barwelle

Looks like the freefall has stopped for TA. It's been floating between 16 and 17 for most of the past 4 weeks.


----------



## webber22

Looks like everyone is picking it up for the 7% dividend before May 30th.


----------



## Sherlock

Spidey said:


> However, other stocks have insiders selling even as the stock reaches new lows. For example, I've been following BNP which contrary to TA is generally loved by the analysts. However, going by selling behavior, the BNP insiders don't appear to share the optimism. I've seen similar insider selling with ERF, which I've also been following.


How do you know what the insiders are doing?


----------



## PMREdmonton

Go to CanadianInsiders.com and type in the symbol for any TSX listed stock. They will then spit out all the recent insider transactions for the past 6 months. The true insider buys are labelled transaction type #10 and are labelled as "acquisition in public markets".

If you find these then insiders who bought are bullish on the stock for the next 6 months since they will not be allowed to sell the stock for that period of time.

The other thing about insider buys is the ones that are most linked to positive outcomes are buys by the CFO and then by the CEO.


----------



## Spidey

Sherlock said:


> How do you know what the insiders are doing?


If you are a member at TD Waterhouse they give updated insider reports on most commonly traded stocks.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Barwelle said:


> Looks like the freefall has stopped for TA. It's been floating between 16 and 17 for most of the past 4 weeks.


RSI is starting to show divergence here and that is a possible why u are seeing that in the past few days.
with risk off on the table all bets are off in case of a larger colapse.
GL if ur trading it


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Barwelle said:


> Looks like the freefall has stopped for TA. It's been floating between 16 and 17 for most of the past 4 weeks.


i would highly recomend ya to look at the chart.
p.s in a mkt meltdown all bets are off , if not this puppy will go higher ... slowly but surely.
divergence at full blast now


----------



## Spidey

moneyisfornothing said:


> i would highly recomend ya to look at the chart.
> p.s in a mkt meltdown all bets are off , if not this puppy will go higher ... slowly but surely.
> divergence at full blast now


In a market meltdown, all bets are off for almost everything. In fact, there could be an argument that TA will hold up better during such an event. A consumer can forgo buying a new car, eating out, travel, purchasing new clothes, etc. for a while, but it's pretty difficult to forgo electricity usage.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Spidey said:


> In a market meltdown, all bets are off for almost everything. In fact, there could be an argument that TA will hold up better during such an event. A consumer can forgo buying a new car, eating out, travel, purchasing new clothes, etc. for a while, but it's pretty difficult to forgo electricity usage.


spidey.
i somewhat agree with ya.
i am not holding TA atm.
nevertheless in a mkt meltdown if i had a boatload of money i would rather hold bluechipps with high divvys.
not the case here.
i am a poor plebeian trader .
cheers


----------



## Barwelle

moneyisfornothing said:


> i would highly recomend ya to look at the chart.


What exactly am I looking for?


----------



## moneyisfornothing

bar
if i was trading that stock..... my buy signal was on may 27 with a low of 15.94.
i would have entered my first position right there and wait for confirmation which in my personal way of trading came on the 3-9 of may where prices did not break below 16.2.
if i was to sell it i would have sold on may 17.
a profit of about 2 dollars in a short term.
that may give u a hint as to what to look for.
i will leave it that way
cheers


----------



## Barwelle

What was your "buy signal" for April 27th? [EDIT: and what was your sell signal?] Seems a bit too convenient to say that, if you were trading, you would have bought it at what happened to be the lowest price it's been in the past month (and, for that matter, the past 8 years or so) then say that you would have sold on the day that happened to have the highest price for the stock after your proposed buy date.

No offense, but that doesn't give me a hint as to what to look for. All you did was say you would have bought at the lowest price and sold at the highest price.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

i am really sorry u see it that way.
i did not trade it and do not intend to trade it.
if u cant relate what i am saying politely to you in the charts and i mean checking oscilators , volume, etc... then u cannot read a chart.
my apologies if my hint was not worth for ya.
i have no intent in teaching u anything.
just mentioning what would be my strategy
by the way of course i would not possibly be that lucky if i traded the stock to catch the lowest low.
GLTY anyway


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## phrenk

moneyisfornothing said:


> i am really sorry u see it that way.
> i did not trade it and do not intend to trade it.
> if u cant relate what i am saying politely to you in the charts and i mean checking oscilators , volume, etc... then u cannot read a chart.
> my apologies if my hint was not worth for ya.
> i have no intent in teaching u anything.
> just mentioning what would be my strategy
> by the way of course i would not possibly be that lucky if i traded the stock to catch the lowest low.
> GLTY anyway


He asked a good question and you can't respond in an intelligent way.

Hindsight is always 20-20 isn't ?


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## HaroldCrump

Barwelle, the charts for days and years past are always perfect.
You can buy and sell stocks with razor sharp precision by looking at charts - all you need is one of them time machines from H.G. Wells.

Some folks on the forum apparently have them time machines. Perhaps they bought in at the IPO. You don't. Too bad.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

phrenk said:


> He asked a good question and you can't respond in an intelligent way.
> 
> Hindsight is always 20-20 isn't ?


intelligent way...... i seee.
wow 
u have divergence as posted above on the RSI .
u have stochastic reversing direction on the daily.
u have macd crossover.
is that intelligent enough for ya?
would u like me to serve it in a golden platter also?
and i pointed where the lowest low ocurred on the oscillator with an inflection point.
wow..... how bout i trade it for ya also?

hmm let me add 
do we see resistance at 17 bux?
anything else?


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## moneyisfornothing

HaroldCrump said:


> Barwelle, the charts for days and years past are always perfect.
> You can buy and sell stocks with razor sharp precision by looking at charts - all you need is one of them time machines from H.G. Wells.
> 
> Some folks on the forum apparently have them time machines. Perhaps they bought in at the IPO. You don't. Too bad.



yeah
this is the one i use .
by the way that is me in the pic.


----------



## Barwelle

phrenk said:


> Hindsight is always 20-20 isn't ?


 +1.



HaroldCrump said:


> Barwelle, the charts for days and years past are always perfect.
> You can buy and sell stocks with razor sharp precision by looking at charts - all you need is one of them time machines from H.G. Wells.
> 
> Some folks on the forum apparently have them time machines. Perhaps they bought in at the IPO. You don't. Too bad.


Aww maaan..... 

I guess I have to hack into the CMF server so I can get some IP addresses, trace them to find out where these forum members live, and steal away someone's time machine.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Barwelle said:


> +1.
> 
> 
> 
> Aww maaan.....
> 
> I guess I have to hack into the CMF server so I can get some IP addresses, trace them to find out where these forum members live, and steal away someone's time machine.



soooo 
do u get it now ?

by the way barwelle this would be my selling point from the low, just so u do not criticize me later.
i do not care if the stock goes to 30 dollars


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## blin10

am I the only one bottom fishing with this one ?  picked up a ton around 16.40$ nice pop today


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## Young&Ambitious

It's on my radar. The dividend yield is nice. Fortis is trading too high for me to consider.


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## arc

oil and gas prices are going to hit rock bottom in the next few months because of the euro issue...it's difficult to see this a long play


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## blin10

will you buy it when you see visible uptrend ? 



arc said:


> oil and gas prices are going to hit rock bottom in the next few months because of the euro issue...it's difficult to see this a long play


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## arc

blin10 said:


> will you buy it when you see visible uptrend ?


Even when compared to last summer oil prices are still high, TA has been rather steady despite there being no real progress in euro....

I am thinking of buying put options on TA for now but not quite sure how low oil will go and for how long


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## atrp2biz

What does TA have to do with oil?


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## Young&Ambitious

Closed at $17.14 today. Tempted and yet, will there be more bad news in the markets? *cross fingers*


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## Eder

I think we need to see if TA gets a favorable outcome with it's squabble with TransCanada and then it gets back above $20...if not we are going lower I think. Should get a ruling in the next few weeks if I remember correctly.


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## Young&Ambitious

Any thoughts on the penalties they're incurring? With their liquidity long term is likely still okay, but I'm unsure about long term plays in this roller coaster market


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## blin10

dipped for more, but if it breaks support that it's at right now it will go lower where i'll be dipping more :>


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## doctrine

These guys are going to report a $150M impairment when they report on the repair. Thats $0.66 a share - these guys are lucky if they make that in three quarters, and they're still paying their dividend. You take your chances - I sold back at $20 and am not buying back.


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## blin10

i think price already reflects that... but ya it's def not for weak stomachs


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## HaroldCrump

Down another 3.5% today.
I'm glad I parachuted at $21+ over a year ago.
Seems like a classic falling knife.


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## blin10

ya it's going down pretty hard after that news but how low can it go


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## HaroldCrump

New shares issued at $14.30.
I guess this means they are not cutting the dividend then :rolleyes2:


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## Toronto.gal

blin10 said:


> but how low can it go


I have the answer for you; nearly 10% since you posted. 

Anyone interested now? Doctrine/Harold?


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## doctrine

A month ago, they reported a loss of $3.50 a share. Even adjusted, they still had a loss of $0.10 a share, and paid a $0.29 dividend on top of it. Two days ago, they announced a purchase of a power plant in Australia, and issued 19.25 million shares at $14.30 plus $150M in preferred shares. They're already down to $14.15. Anyone hoping to see $20 again is a long way off.


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## Navigate Sensibly

doctrine said:


> A month ago, they reported a loss of $3.50 a share. Even adjusted, they still had a loss of $0.10 a share, and paid a $0.29 dividend on top of it. Two days ago, they announced a purchase of a power plant in Australia, and issued 19.25 million shares at $14.30 plus $150M in preferred shares. They're already down to $14.15. Anyone hoping to see $20 again is a long way off.


Man, Dawn Farrell needs to just "woman up" and cut the dividend already.


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## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> Anyone interested now? Doctrine/Harold?


I am not.
Until they either change the senior management, or the management comes up with a plan to fix the core issues, there is no value in this.
For instance, this latest acquisition in Australia is nuts.
No wonder the stock is being punished.


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## Dibs

Today I bit the bullet and sold most of my shares for a 30% loss. Lesson learned: low beta stocks != bonds.


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## blin10

this is how you make money, when people post they finally took a huge loss by selling you buy, I bought a lot more lately, don't care if it goes lower... same thing happened to ERF, everyone was unloading their shares screaming how dividend will get cut bla bla, but I loaded up huge around $12.20 (3000 shares), up close to $12g's and getting dividends


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## blin10

it's ok , 10% is nothing really, that's how I make my positions, buy very little in the beginning and on a way down keep increasing it



Toronto.gal said:


> I have the answer for you; nearly 10% since you posted.
> 
> Anyone interested now? Doctrine/Harold?


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## Eder

HaroldCrump said:


> I am not.
> , this latest acquisition in Australia is nuts.
> No wonder the stock is being punished.


I agree their management needs to go but why is the Fortesque acquisition bad? The price they paid seems cheap @ $40 mil/year cash flow guaranteed for 21 years on a brand new plant.


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## Argonaut

There should be a device installed on all Canadian brokers, whenever one tries to click the "buy" button on TransAlta, they get an electric shock.


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## Echo

Argonaut said:


> There should be a device installed on all Canadian brokers, whenever one tries to click the "buy" button on TransAlta, they get an electric shock.


+1


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## Navigate Sensibly

blin10 said:


> this is how you make money, when people post they finally took a huge loss by selling you buy, I bought a lot more lately, don't care if it goes lower... same thing happened to ERF, everyone was unloading their shares screaming how dividend will get cut bla bla, but I loaded up huge around $12.20 (3000 shares), up close to $12g's and getting dividends


Yea, YLO and RIM were also cheap and still are. Why not buy them? Yeah that's right.


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## blin10

Navigate Sensibly said:


> Yea, YLO and RIM were also cheap and still are. Why not buy them? Yeah that's right.


you can't compare yellow pages and technology company to electricity provider... that's like comparing orange to shampoo


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## HaroldCrump

blin10 said:


> you can't compare yellow pages and technology company to electricity provider... that's like comparing orange to shampoo


Well, no, it is possible for incompetent management to screw up a perfectly profitable company in a stable industry.
YLO's situation was challenging, no question, but it was made much, much worse by the attitude and decisions of the management.


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## blin10

anything is possible, that's what investing is, but anyways I'm not going to argue back and forth... just was my opinion


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## Causalien

moneyisfornothing said:


> intelligent way...... i seee.
> wow
> u have divergence as posted above on the RSI .
> u have stochastic reversing direction on the daily.
> u have macd crossover.
> is that intelligent enough for ya?
> would u like me to serve it in a golden platter also?
> and i pointed where the lowest low ocurred on the oscillator with an inflection point.
> wow..... how bout i trade it for ya also?
> 
> hmm let me add
> do we see resistance at 17 bux?
> anything else?


Since we are on the topic of technical indicators. I have a few questions on your methodologies since they differ significantly from mine.

Please state the length of time used to graph your technical indicators as well as the granularity of time.

Why are you using RSI as a divergence indicator? How are you using it as a divergence indicator?
TA is no longer in a predictable trend. How are you using its stochastic to measure direction? Are you combining it with something else?
What other indicator are you using with MACD to signal a significant crossover instead of relegating it to a noise?


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## gibor365

Just checked stockchase.com ... Ross Healy calls SELL Transalta, and this is the same guy who called Top Pick on YLO (A Top Pick July 12/11. Down 95.54%.) 
Maybe it's really time to buy TA?!


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## Causalien

gibor said:


> Just checked stockchase.com ... Ross Healy calls SELL Transalta, and this is the same guy who called Top Pick on YLO (A Top Pick July 12/11. Down 95.54%.)
> Maybe it's really time to buy TA?!


Well, the price tickled me and got me interested in their preferred shares. As far as bad company going down goes. Gut feelings says there's still more to come. When the market determines that it is the management that's at fault. It will only recover once the management is removed and 2 years has passed with the new management without any more unexpected loses.


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## Spidey

gibor said:


> Just checked stockchase.com ... Ross Healy calls SELL Transalta, and this is the same guy who called Top Pick on YLO (A Top Pick July 12/11. Down 95.54%.)
> Maybe it's really time to buy TA?!


TA is the only stinker in my portfolio. (Fortunately it is not a significant holding.) I think they desperately need a management change. I should have followed my intuition when I heard that Dawn Farrell said something along the lines of not liking her job as manager. Not exactly what you want to hear.

Sometimes these analysts annoy me. Scrolling back to July 5, 2012 when TA was $17.60 Ross Healy also had TA as a "top pick". Perhaps you are right.


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## Dmoney

Same as you Spidey, TA is the only dog in my portfolio (well that and my company's stock which I hold as part of the employee stock purchase plan, but it looks to be recovering). Unfortunately it's about half of my TFSA, so that's less than ideal. I'm going to hold for now as I don't think it will go much lower. I don't think it'll get back to $20 anytime in the near future, but if it can sustain the dividend, it's worth the hold.


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## gibor365

I hold just 150 sh of TA and just don't feel I have to sell it...


Causalien said:


> Well, the price tickled me and got me interested in their preferred shares. As far as bad company going down goes. Gut feelings says there's still more to come. When the market determines that it is the management that's at fault. It will only recover once the management is removed and 2 years has passed with the new management without any more unexpected loses.


 This is what I hoping for.... at least I get paid while waiting several years.... my major concern if they cut dividends, than stock may sink even to single digit....
Strong companies with perfect management are trading at very high valuations and growth in share price is limited....


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## Causalien

I invested in utilities once... then learned my lessons. The modern day utilities engages in large derivative contracts. ie weapons of mass financial destruction. Which essentially means they are just like any other hedge fund. Yes, you can say that this is to lock in predictable income, but who is to say that they won't try some shenanigans while the whole thing is obfuscated under the veil of derivative contracts? 

TA's large loss can only be associated with a derivative loss in my opinion, hidden by the facade of an Australian buyout. Because by all indicators, electricity cost going up while gas is at low, oil remaining constant, they should be profitable.Anyway, looking at preferred and waiting for them to kick management.


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## Navigate Sensibly

I am hoping that price would drop to single digits.


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## Homerhomer

At least one person thinks TA could be a take over target and offers a glimmer of hope for all of us dummies who were stupid enough to buy it at higher levels.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ning-eye-for-takeover-targets/article4534920/


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## Cal

It would be an interesting take over for FTS...from both sides. But for every article like this how many actually go through.


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## Homerhomer

Cal said:


> It would be an interesting take over for FTS...from both sides. But for every article like this how many actually go through.


Very few


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## Spidey

I'm one of those dummies. :stupid: It would be great if something like this (takeover) went through - I think another management team with perhaps a little cash injection to upgrade some of the plants could be a win-win. In the meantime, I'll be licking my wounds while keeping my fingers crossed.


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## blin10

up a buck since few days


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## Dibs

Looks like I sold part of my shares at the wrong time, but for some reason I don't feel too much remorse.


----------



## Cal

Recent analysis for support:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...aught-in-a-stubborn-downtrend/article4621416/


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## blin10

who's still in this bad boy...


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## gibor365

blin10 said:


> who's still in this bad boy...


me ... me 

Hope it will be good for shareholders
_TransAlta, known for Canadian and U.S. coal, gas and renewable generation businesses, said it signed a strategic partnership with MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., owned by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc._

https://www.tdwaterhouse.ca/markets...tps://www.tdcanadatrust.com/markets/index.jsp


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## Spidey

Sounds like a move in the right direction.



> The Calgary-based power generator announced the agreement Friday with Iowa-based MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., a subsidiary of billionaire Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway.


http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tr...tnership-build-gas-fired-power-122630088.html


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## My Own Advisor

Keep your fingers crossed Spidey, it's working


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## al42

blin10 said:


> who's still in this bad boy...


I still have 500 shares of this junk....was lucky enough to sell most of it @ around 17 bucks for a 10% loss.
Should have sold it all back then but kept a bit as a reminder of how dumb I am.


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## Calgary_Girl

TA just announced they are laying off close to 170 employees...how's that for a Christmas gift?! I guess it's easier to do that than to announce a dividend cut. So glad I don't own this P*S anymore!


----------



## alam

just caught up with this thread!
seems lot of negative sentiment here...

has anyone increased their position lately?
I'm tempted to buy at this level assuming that the downside is limited to 14...
It appears that they would cut dividend as a last resort, so 7.4% looks attractive.
Any expert advice in the field of power generation/marketing? With natural gas price going lower or staying low, isn't that beneficial for TA?
Why is this stock being hit so hard in the past one year and not prior? I just did not know that utilities can experiment such volatility!

Thanks!


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## Ag Driver

I've been watching it since it was at $15 about a month ago. This has been one stock that I was after since entering the market not long ago. With it sitting at the $20 mark for the past 5 years, I think it will be a good long term hold inside my TFSA with a decent dividend yeild. I would liked to have picked it up in the $15 range, but I couldn't get my funds into my Qtrade account fast enough! I had mailed my electronic funds transfer forms ... then I accidentally transferred funds into my cash account and not my TFSA account that I trade inside of. So it was a week of snail mail, 2 days to wait for the transfers into the cash account, another 2 days to wait for the transfer into my TFSA ... yikes. Rookie lesson learned. 

Previous lessons learned; I am no longer buying odd lot's. So this time I averaged $16.726 for one round lot of 100 shares.


----------



## Daryl-Manitoba

This one is still kicking at an above 7% yield. Announced another dividend yesterday with no cut.


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## blin10

i was holding for a while, sold it finally 3-4 days ago around 16.5x... put that 2g's profit into hr.un recently


----------



## CashMoney101

Has anyone else looked into TransAlta's 2012 annual report? http://www.transalta.com/sites/default/files/TA_FullReport_2012_0.pdf Am I right to think the numbers are extremely scary? They had negative earnings per share of -$2.61 for the full year, while paying out $1.16 in dividends! Another thing that is troubling me is that they appear to be issuing a huge number of new shares, an increase of 15% in diluted average weighted shares since 2011. Or is this a good thing since they are simply losing money, so they are simply spreading the losses around more? I'm not a financial analyst but I'm learning as I go and frankly, I have never seen an annual report that looked so grim before. What do you all think of their numbers?


----------



## doctrine

They have been scary for a while. See multiple posts by experienced investors and CMF posters above.


----------



## My Own Advisor

This should help them longer term:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/10/26/transalta-buffett.html

For now, ride the rollercoaster if you dare...


----------



## Jon_Snow

Been watching TA a bit lately... Spent part of the day reading through this thread. Any temptation I may have been feeling to buy some of this stock has been quenched. Thanks to all, and condolences to those who stuck with this dog.


----------



## Cal

I can't belive they haven't cut the dividend. Management is either delusional or they really feel they can get through this.


----------



## My Own Advisor

They will make it through but with one dividend cut on the way later this year. Just my hunch.


----------



## gibor365

Cal said:


> I can't belive they haven't cut the dividend. Management is either delusional or they really feel they can get through this.


If they cut stock will be tanking (even though possible dividend cut is already priced in), and TA wants to prevent it by any means possible


----------



## Eder

I think TA will be in play if they fall much further. They have suffered from poor uninvolved disinterested management for 15 years at least. I think they should start selling off assets to businesses that have a clue but that would mean the board actually gives a sh_t about shareholders. Makes me sad what has happened to this once proud company...


----------



## w0nger

heard they have a broken power plant... yikes!


----------



## Feruk

Any updated thoughts on Transalta? I'm looking at it...


----------



## james4beach

I still hold it within ZUT. The payout ratio is very high at 97% (as of March) and that's my primary worry.

Using some technical analysis on the stock chart, it's still a bearish pattern... progressively lower highs and barely holding at the 200 day moving average.


----------



## PatInTheHat

Very concerned about this one. If they lower the dividend the stock is going to fall. I could see $10 happening.

I do feel they are turning it around though.


----------



## doctrine

A payout ratio of 97% according to what criteria? Certainly not net earnings..they had a loss last quarter.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> A payout ratio of 97% according to what criteria? Certainly not net earnings..they had a loss last quarter.


Source is this globe and mail article, which used AFFO, described there.


----------



## doctrine

I used to own some Transalta shares; I sold in March 2012 once their net/adjusted earnings dropped below the dividend. So let me get up to date and do a 10 minute stock analysis.

I took a look at their last quarterly report. Transalta doesn't report AFFO... they do report adjusted earnings. In the last four quarters, they have $0.42 in total adjusted earnings. This gives them a dividend payout ratio of adjusted earnings of 276%. Some of this is reinvested via DRIP in the company; but if you don't reinvest you get diluted.

The good news is that they are profitable on an adjusted basis, but it's not good news for shareholders as dilution continues (10% more shares in the last year) and book value is eroding. Shareholder equity is down from $3.6B to $3.3B in 12 months. That means despite being a "turnaround" company (to use Peter Lynch terminology), they are still trading at a P/B of 1.24.

I just don't see any good news here that would convince me to jump in. Good luck to anyone holding though. Despite all of this bad news, the stock is only down about 18% including dividends since I sold.


----------



## gibor365

interesting that S&P gives Buy rating and target $16 USD... I still hold small position , but not sure if I'd add

they reported FFO "Funds From Operations(2,3) (“FFO”) increased $3 million to $192 million compared to prior year"


----------



## james4beach

I'm wondering, for utilities, what is the standard 'payout ratio' metric? There must be some standard measure that is relevant to utilities.

Otherwise the comparisons between companies are all over the place. Either using net income, or FFO, or AFFO (and are 'adjustments' even done in a standardized way?)


----------



## james4beach

By the way, I don't think the market accurately prices the danger of a dividend cut and this makes me particularly worried about what will happen to share prices if TA (or others) cut distributions.

Reason I say this is I observed just how sharply other stocks fell when their distribution was cut, _even though there was a strong likelihood of that cut_ based on payout ratio. If the market *was* correctly pricing in that likelihood of a cut (for instance on ATP) then the shares would have traded lower pre-cut. But instead the distribution cuts apparently come as a total surprise, and suddenly everyone dumps the shares.

I suspect the same will be true for TA. This is just speculation... although there's a reasonably high probability TA will cut dividends, I don't think the shares are priced to reflect that. So if a cut happens, I think it will knock the shares down quite a bit


----------



## doctrine

> I'm wondering, for utilities, what is the standard 'payout ratio' metric?


Emera, Fortis and Canadian Utilities cover their dividends out of net earnings, so that's my own personal standard. The more that a non-standard metric is used by a company or an analyst, the more I am skeptical. I'll occasionally look at adjusted earnings, but never rely on operating cash flows. ATP had a payout ratio of under 100% of operating cash flows, but weren't even profitable in 4 years.

I think a cut would really hurt the stock price. It seems so obvious for Transalta, but they've kept it going for nearly a year and a half, so who knows.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I don't know how they've kept it going...smoke and mirrors maybe...but I continue to hold a small position.


----------



## gibor365

_I suspect the same will be true for TA. This is just speculation... although there's a reasonably high probability TA will cut dividends, I don't think the shares are priced to reflect that._ imho market is pricing in only probability of cutting dividends, so in ATP case even though everyone was talking about cut, most didn#t think it will be cut in this specific month


----------



## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> By the way, I don't think the market accurately prices the danger of a dividend cut and this makes me particularly worried about what will happen to share prices if TA (or others) cut distributions.
> 
> Reason I say this is I observed just how sharply other stocks fell when their distribution was cut, _even though there was a strong likelihood of that cut_ based on payout ratio. If the market *was* correctly pricing in that likelihood of a cut (for instance on ATP) then the shares would have traded lower pre-cut. But instead the distribution cuts apparently come as a total surprise, and suddenly everyone dumps the shares ...


That's why I laugh when people talk about the market has already priced in <insert the item of your choice here>. Some times it does and sometimes it doesn't.


Cheers


----------



## PatInTheHat

Bought at 14.14 and decided to get out at 15.05. I've determined the risk of owning this stock does not fit in with my overall plan. The only unfortunate thing is I have no other stock on the radar to fill this sector of my portfolio. Any suggestions?


----------



## PatInTheHat

Still watching and may get back in


----------



## phrenk

doctrine said:


> Emera, Fortis and Canadian Utilities cover their dividends out of net earnings, so that's my own personal standard. The more that a non-standard metric is used by a company or an analyst, the more I am skeptical. I'll occasionally look at adjusted earnings, but never rely on operating cash flows. ATP had a payout ratio of under 100% of operating cash flows, but weren't even profitable in 4 years.
> 
> I think a cut would really hurt the stock price. It seems so obvious for Transalta, but they've kept it going for nearly a year and a half, so who knows.


I feel as a sharehold of TA that i need to step in because it needs to be understood that a divided payout ratio based on net earnings is misleading, given that there are a bunch of non cash items included in net earnings. In addition, certain cash flow items do not flow through the net earnings such as capex, so its non-sense to use a dividend payout ratio based on net earnings.

A true dividend payout ratio is based on free cash flow. It isn't a non standard metric, its a true metric that captures the cash coming in, and the cash coming out. It isn't clouded by non cash items or items not flowing trought the income statement. Transalta has the liquidity to fund the dividend. Also, here's a quote from the latest RBC research report on TA : "On a cash flow basis, we expect the dividend payout ratio to be in the range of 65% to 75% (based on ACFFO) in 2013 and 2014, respectively."


----------



## james4beach

This payout ratio thing bugs me. We need a way to do an apples-to-apples comparison and maybe someone knows a proper standard formula for payout ratio, but I haven't seen it yet.

The whole point of standard accounting (GAAP or IFRS) is that you set hard rules. Accounting is very much an art and absent of strict methods you get too much flakiness. So you get "adjusted" this and that, and ex- whatever, but the number is bogus and somewhere in the future you see the flip side of all those things you tried excluding previously. Weird exclusions and special adjustments always come back, in some form, to create losses somewhere else.

I'm not opposed to cashflow based measures, but from what I've seen *the different utilities report very different cashflow-based payout ratios*. So if they're not reporting the same thing, what does a number like "65% to 75%" mean? It means nothing, unless you can compare it to its peers.

That's my issue here. Of course each utility is going to massage its own payout ratio numbers to make them look good... every company does that with any non-standard metric.

But what I want to do is compare the payout ratio of all the utilities based on a standard formula that doesn't allow massaging of the number.
Hell, I'll even calculate it and share it with everyone. I just need to know how to properly do it.


----------



## swoop_ds

Still no dividend cut.


----------



## doctrine

I took a look at the highlights. I don't like that you have to go down to the table at the bottom of the release to find net earnings - that's a Peter Lynch warning sign (for those who read his book). Lots of talk about revenue and operating earnings up and doing great, but then you see their fleet availability was only 85.9%, below their own guidance, and then you see they managed to turn $0.65 of FFO per share into a net loss of $0.03 per share plus declared a dividend of $0.29, for a net per share book value decrease of $0.32, although you get to keep most of that with the dividend.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I'm surprised the haircut hasn't come yet.


----------



## garreTT

Decreases dividend by a cent, stock down 10%. Thoughts?


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## gibor365

garreTT said:


> Decreases dividend by a cent, stock down 10%. Thoughts?


From 0.29 to 0.18.... by 38%...


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## Homerhomer

This stock was my biggest mistake over the last few years, cut it loose today.


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## gibor365

Homerhomer said:


> This stock was my biggest mistake over the last few years, cut it loose today.


and one of the my biggest mistakes...good thing that my position is very small.... didn't sell yet, but probably will.....


----------



## PatInTheHat

One of my few sells that worked out. When your wrong 50% of the time..


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## garreTT

gibor said:


> From 0.29 to 0.18.... by 38%...


You're right, my mistake.That's an awful drop.


----------



## Taraz

I blame LED bulbs. How's a poor little power generation company supposed to make any money when people are only using 10% of the electricity for lighting. Stupid environment.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Bouncing back a bit... glad I didn't knee jerk sell this this morning.

Only down a hundred bucks on a 7k investment... I will still likely sell this dog once I am a little bit above water on it.


----------



## bds

I had my finger over the sell button as well this morning. I sold half of my holding a little while back at $15 and I'll probably be dumping the rest this afternoon. I'm hoping for it to recover a little closer to my $14 entry point.


----------



## Jon_Snow

My entry was in the 13's, so while irritating (I was actually up 7% at one point) this isn't catastrophic for me.

Who knows, maybe it will inch higher for awhile. Still, it won't take much for me to sell it all.


----------



## bds

.... and I'm out @ $13.70. Averaged with my previous sale I'm still up 2.5%. Not my best decision but definitely not the worst :encouragement:


----------



## Dibs

I still hold some shares after cutting my position a year ago. I am glad they cut the dividend since it was unsustainable. Right now I think I will hold on to my remaining shares.

An interesting comparison of this situation is with TransCanada. They went through a very similar situation in 1999:



> The pipeline company announced in December 1999 that it would cut its dividend by 29 per cent following a disastrous diversification strategy, sending the share price to a nine-year low and the yield to a high of 7.3 per cent – then the highest yielding stock on Canada’s benchmark index. Since the announcement, though, the share price has risen a total of 235 per cent after factoring in dividends – which are now rising at a yearly clip – or about five-times the pace of the S&P/TSX composite index.


Source: Apr 16, 2012 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...low-amid-fears-about-dividend/article4197636/

Here is an 1999 story on the dividend cut: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/transcanada-stock-drops-after-dividend-cut-1.169193

I know that things might be very different between the two companies, but doesn't the situation look similar?


----------



## doctrine

Perhaps, but you could have gotten back into Transcanada for years and years after that cut, including after they started increasing the dividend, and still gotten great gains. 

How about waiting until they're profitable again, or are in a position to increase the dividend, or the management is all fired? They need a Hunter Harrison equivalent for utilities to clean the company up.


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## My Own Advisor

Still own a few shares...ouch.


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## gibor365

Dibs said:


> I still hold some shares after cutting my position a year ago. I am glad they cut the dividend since it was unsustainable. Right now I think I will hold on to my remaining shares.


and now their dividend became sustainable?! TA current yield is just 5.2%, pretty close to EMA or even FTS who at least increasing dividends every year and have much better fundamentals.... or maybe better invest to CPG who has yield above 7% ?


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## OurBigFatWallet

gibor said:


> and now their dividend became sustainable?! TA current yield is just 5.2%, pretty close to EMA or even FTS who at least increasing dividends every year and have much better fundamentals.... or maybe better invest to CPG who has yield above 7% ?


I'd take CPG any day of the week. Seems like a more sustainable model. Note - I own CPG so obviously a bit biased


----------



## jamesbe

Hmmmm After dividends I'm still up even though I'm slightly down on the capital on this one. Didn't like the drop today but do like they are working things out to be more profitable later. Have to think about it more.


----------



## GoldStone

OurBigFatWallet said:


> I'd take CPG any day of the week. Seems like a more sustainable model. Note - I own CPG so obviously a bit biased


Globe And Mail data before TA cut:

CPG

EPS: 0.10
Annual dividend: 2.76
Payout ratio: 2760%


TA

EPS: 0.14
Annual dividend: 1.16
Payout ratio: 829%


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## gibor365

However CPG payout ratio if calculated by dividing the dividend paid by operating cash flow per share is about 50%. Also CPG debt-to-equity is 0.2 and TA has 1.4


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## My Own Advisor

I'll continue to hold TA. I don't really care too much about the stock price because the dividend is now sustainable. I would only take a small loss if I sell, which I don't intend to.

Own own a bit of CPG, will continue to hold that and collect dividends.

Back to TA, the dividend cut could be the best thing for this company in another 5 years. Who knows.


----------



## GoldStone

gibor said:


> However CPG payout ratio if calculated by dividing the dividend paid by operating cash flow per share is about 50%.


Didn't we hear the same argument about TA before they cut? Forget about earnings, focus on cash flow?


----------



## My Own Advisor

I think ultimately you want to see great cash flow from any company you own, so I'm with you on this point GoldStone.

Otherwise, if the company isn't making great money, why invest in it?

If those companies happen to return that cash to shareholders like me; great, this is why I buy them.


----------



## gibor365

My Own Advisor said:


> I think ultimately you want to see great cash flow from any company you own, so I'm with you on this point GoldStone.
> 
> Otherwise, if the company isn't making great money, why invest in it?


MOA, I think Goldstone was telling opposite think 
As I mentioned, CPG has significantly lesser debt 0.2 vs 1.4 (TA)
CPG operational cash flow grew by 44% in Q3 comparing to the same period in the previous year...

Another thing that CPG considers dividends to be an operational expense rather than a means of distributing excess earnings to shareholders.... I'm wondering if some other stocks doing the same?


----------



## Eder

I think TA will again become a take over target. I hope present management would welcome this (unlikely,as they care little about shareholders).


----------



## My Own Advisor

Sorry, misread the point.

So why wouldn't you want to own a company that generates lots of cash flow?


----------



## Ag Driver

This was one of my first buys, and I have learned a lot from it. I hold a mere 100 shares, so either way it would not be a tremendous loss if I were to sell now. Having said that, I will not unload simply because of this divvy cut. The 0.29 was a good run, but 0.18 is still good in my books.


----------



## gibor365

Ag Driver said:


> This was one of my first buys, and I have learned a lot from it. I hold a mere 100 shares, so either way it would not be a tremendous loss if I were to sell now. Having said that, I will not unload simply because of this divvy cut. The 0.29 was a good run, but 0.18 is still good in my books.


My point was that there are many other similar stocks with better and more secure dividend


----------



## Ag Driver

gibor said:


> My point was that there are many other similar stocks with better and more secure dividend


Hindsight is always 20/20. There are always going to be better fish to fry. Is it really necessary to realize a loss merely because there was a dividend cut and there are better fish to fry at _this_ given time?

I don't think TA is going to fall off the map anytime soon. They still maintain 3.34B in equity moving forward, and the company itself has been around since 1911 -- that to me, stands for something. It is not enough for me to panic and unload when my position was focused as a long term hold to begin with.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I think the same way about TA Ag Driver, my position is about the same in TA. 

On the flipside, I have many other stocks that have done nicely since 2009 so losing a couple hundred bucks on paper is not a big deal. 

The TA dividend cut is a good reminder to me why I need to continue to diversify my individual holdings and index invest as well.


----------



## praire_guy

My Own Advisor said:


> I think ultimately you want to see great cash flow from any company you own, so I'm with you on this point GoldStone.
> 
> Otherwise, if the company isn't making great money, why invest in it?
> 
> If those companies happen to return that cash to shareholders like me; great, this is why I buy them.


But if they now return half the amount they were paying you, why wouldn't you sell? Dividend growth investing is one thing, but negative divedend growth is even less of a reason to hold, no?


----------



## Cal

Even at the cut dividend level the payout is around 100%, I know inflation will cause the income/profits to come, but there won't be a dividend increase for a few years. I don't think the company is going anywhere though.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

See TA was up nearly 6% yesterday. Can't see any speculation as to why.


----------



## Ag Driver

$16.726 average ---- $11.75 current. 

I am down almost 30%/$500 on 100 shares. Only $153.16 back from divvies. So a net loss of ~$345/20% in just shy of 2 years. What to do, what to do.....

Keep holding in hopes for a buy out? Keep holding until the divvies give me a break even? (3-5 year time frame). I don't need the money for anything else, but this dog just keeps shitting all over the back yard. 

What I could do is cut my losses and dump the ~$1175 remaining into my e-series couch potatoe. I have to consider the fee's for commission, and transfer out from Qtrade to TDDI. My original position was as a long term hold; but now I am lead to think otherwise.....Thoughts? My Own Advisor, what are you doing with this Red Brick of turd.


----------



## humble_pie

driver u might be one helluva good pilot but clearly the great spirits are punishing you for hunting down & killing their sweet little forest animals with those nasty guns each:


----------



## KaeJS

Wow..

I remember trading this in the 20's...

They have had issues for years, though.


----------



## AltaRed

Poor management and deteriorating balance sheet partly due to dividend payouts. Beware high dividend yielders, especially those that are a drag on the balance sheet. It happens again and again and the stock eventually gets punished. Recovery is by no means certain.


----------



## KaeJS

Alta,

At this point, you need to make an executive decision.

I know what I would do - but I don't want to influence you.

You only have 100 shares which is not much. If I were you, I would just leave it be. Collect the dividends. I wouldn't hope for a recovery (to be honest, probably won't happen). I would simply hope for stability by where the stock price reaches a point that it stays more or less flat and you can keep collecting dividends (hopefully) until you make up for your loss.

IIRC, TA has "old" assets which is a contributing factor in their demise.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Ag Driver said:


> $16.726 average ---- $11.75 current.
> 
> I am down almost 30%/$500 on 100 shares. Only $153.16 back from divvies. So a net loss of ~$345/20% in just shy of 2 years. What to do, what to do.....
> 
> Keep holding in hopes for a buy out? Keep holding until the divvies give me a break even? (3-5 year time frame). I don't need the money for anything else, but this dog just keeps shitting all over the back yard.
> 
> What I could do is cut my losses and dump the ~$1175 remaining into my e-series couch potatoe. I have to consider the fee's for commission, and transfer out from Qtrade to TDDI. My original position was as a long term hold; but now I am lead to think otherwise.....Thoughts? My Own Advisor, what are you doing with this Red Brick of turd.


LOL "what are you doing with this Red Brick of turd"....I'm holding for now. Wrote a post about it:
http://www.myownadvisor.ca/now-transalta/

I might sell later this year, or next, if I decide to move some non-reg. funds to TFSA, and need to offset capital gain. Not sure yet....

In the meantime, collecting divis and saved divis to buy a more reputable company.

This is the only upside?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-midamerican-to-build-alberta-power-line.html


----------



## AltaRed

KaeJS said:


> You only have 100 shares which is not much. If I were you, I would just leave it be. Collect the dividends. I wouldn't hope for a recovery (to be honest, probably won't happen). I would simply hope for stability by where the stock price reaches a point that it stays more or less flat and you can keep collecting dividends (hopefully) until you make up for your loss.
> 
> IIRC, TA has "old" assets which is a contributing factor in their demise.


It wasn't me with the 100 shares BUT if it was me, I'd certainly crystallize capital losses to offset cap gains this year. I agree TA is in a tragic place partly because of their legacy assets but management did the ostrich thing for way too long. You should not want to own a company that has been in denial for so long.


----------



## KaeJS

AltaRed said:


> It wasn't me with the 100 shares


Alta,

I apologize. You are correct. I'm sorry, I was/am posting from work and I must have got sidetracked and wrote the wrong name. LOL.

Obviously, my comment was meant in response to Ag Driver.


----------



## Ag Driver

humble_pie said:


> driver u might be one helluva good pilot but clearly the great spirits are punishing you for hunting down & killing their sweet little forest animals with those nasty guns each:


I'll have you know that no animals were harmed in the making of my money  Along side my aerial application I have also planted north of a million trees on aerial forestry regeneration programs as well. What have you done for the environment? 

Thank for all the input. I suppose I will keep TA.turd in the dark in hopes to produce a mushroom, at the very least.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

The old dog gave a bark today. Up 2.9%. Now roll over and go back to sleep.


----------



## Ag Driver

I've got a long way to go to $16.73!


----------



## My Own Advisor

Maybe turning a corner?
http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=73587120&qm_symbol=TA


----------



## Taraz

Wouldn't the falling CAD help TA, since they're exporting (some) power to the US while generating it in Canada?


----------



## Flash

I'm now thinking of investing in this. Q4 was good, a lot of net profit. 
How is TransAlta similar/different to FTS, EMA, CU?

And any thoughts on their alternate company, RNW?


----------



## supperfly17

Anyone buying at these levels?


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## supperfly17

Ag Driver said:


> What a sad state of affairs this one is for me. Down 58% and counting. At least it's only about $1000 in the hole -- great lesson!
> 
> I suppose I will continue to hold.


I am holding as well. What lesson did you learn from this one if you dont mind sharing?


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## AltaRed

Ag Driver said:


> Utilities have taken a beating over the past few years


They have? On what basis do you say that? The S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Indexhttp://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=^TTUT is about flat over both 1 and 5 year periods (before dividends).


----------



## Flash

I am looking to buy this. Mostly for the dividend and "hopefully" any potential upsides. Although since from my understand, most of it's activity is in Alberta, and Alberta isn't doing so well. Also apparently they are due for some fines for price fixing.

The balance sheet does look good. I also know transalta has a renewable energy wing as well. Would a boost in that (RNW) also boost TA? Should I go straight into RNW and not TA?
Anyone with more experience and insight can share his opinion and advise?
At the current price of 6.58, I would get 400 shares. 250 in RNW if that would be a better decission.

I'm mostly concerned of a potential dividend cut, although no other Utility company had to do it, and while EMA and FTS increased theirs, TA cut its in 2014.


----------



## Fraser19

P/E 91.7
TA is very poorly reviewed at this time.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted


----------



## stantistic

*Transalta and Renewables*

Transalta makes a big deal of "dropping down" assets into a subsidiary called Renewables. How can owning an asset in a subsidiary be a gain over owning it directly ? IMO all that is gained is extra expense and opportunity for accounting hanky panky a la Enron.


----------



## zylon

*No one getting moist* over TransAlta?*

Me neither!



> The Calgary-based power company rose 10 per cent, at one point rising as high as 13 per cent to $6.17, — its biggest jump since October 2008. The Alberta government announced Sunday that it would phase out coal-power plants by 2030 while boosting investments in renewable energy as part of its plan to curb emissions from Canada’s oil and gas hub.
> http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/transalta-soars-on-alberta-climate-change-plan


* a Turnerism


----------



## AltaRed

stantistic said:


> Transalta makes a big deal of "dropping down" assets into a subsidiary called Renewables. How can owning an asset in a subsidiary be a gain over owning it directly ? IMO all that is gained is extra expense and opportunity for accounting hanky panky a la Enron.


Because they have grabbed some cash from the market by dropping 100% owned assets into a majority owned (<100%) entity. Same thing that ENB does with ENF.UN. The parent has effectively monetized some assets.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

One possibility: Got any gains to take off the table? Sell, lock in the gains (buy back if the stock still makes sense to you), Sell TA and take your lumps, use the loss to keep your gains to 0 taxable. Make sure they balance each other, make sure to consider any past losses you are carrying forward.


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Sorry, yes that makes a big difference. And if the current balance is only ~$1448 you might as well continue to collect the divvies and hope that they continue.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Agreed, might be best to simply hold the line...it doesn't sound like a large asset for you so you have little downside but there remains long-term potential upside (i.e., years from now) - here's hoping?


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted


----------



## stantistic

*TransAlta Preferred*

In his PrefBlog, Hymas has a blistering article on the above. Relates mainly to pricing theory of preferreds.


----------



## hollyhunter

Currently, TA.TO has been showing support at 6.07 and resistance at 7.66.


----------



## Eder

Worst management team of any public utility for last 25 years...they feather their nest while screwing shareholders over & over...they should put their assets up for sale, I'm sure future tax credits are worth multi millions in this train wreck. Ok...I feel better now.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Tell us how you feel Eder?


----------



## Dilbert

You know, I kinda feel negative against them as well. Not only due to my $$ losses over the past years, but I personally have dealt with them in a professional capacity. They were pretty flakey!


----------



## My Own Advisor

I used to own them and sold before things tanked a great deal. Happy to be out. Put the money instead into CDN bank stocks before the run-ups in 2015 and 2016. Much better now!


----------



## Dilbert

My Own Advisor said:


> I used to own them and sold before things tanked a great deal. Happy to be out. Put the money instead into CDN bank stocks before the run-ups in 2015 and 2016. Much better now!


I did the same with my TA within my TFSA....not so lucky/quick within my RSP.....:moon:


----------



## atrp2biz

TA has become one of my largest holdings with an ACB of ~$8. It's important to remember that TA is NOT a public utility. It is an independent power producer (IPP) in a merchant, unregulated wholesale market. It lives and dies with power prices which have tanked over the past few years due to oversupply (re: Shepard) and low gas prices. 

Most of TA's assets are in Alberta and the Alberta power market is changing quite a bit. Coal will be coming offline but TA recently negotiated an annual payment of $37 million for 14 years to compensate it for stranded capital arising from the Climate Leadership Plan. Alberta will also be introducing a capacity market which should benefit its existing assets. TA has had quite a run-up this year, but I will continue to hold given my points above.


----------



## zylon

^^^^
Excellent post *atrp2biz*.

This forum needs "upvote" "downvote" feature.

Any mods or admins lurking hereabouts?


----------



## Eder

I agree that TA may be a value buy but until they show shareholders some love...(selling assets that they are incapable of managing), there are many other utility equities (and yes TA is a public utility http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/utilities_sector.asp ) that get the reason they exist...to pay their owners.


----------



## atrp2biz

Eder said:


> I agree that TA may be a value buy but until they show shareholders some love...(selling assets that they are incapable of managing), there are many other utility equities (and yes TA is a public utility http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/utilities_sector.asp ) that get the reason they exist...to pay their owners.


TA is not a utility. A homeowner does not buy electricity directly from TransAlta. However, ENMAX and EPCOR are utilities. What differentiates a utility and an IPP is how their revenues are determined. Are revenues/prices set through a rate base via a rate hearing with the energy board? If yes, they are a utility. If no, they are an IPP. 

Here is a sector specific reference.

https://www.energyvortex.com/energy...ducer_(ipp)__non_utility_generator_(nug).html

_independent power producer (IPP), non-utility generator (NUG)
These two terms are interchangeable, and *refer to a producer of electrical energy which is not a public utility but which makes electric energy available for sale to utilities* or the general public. NUGs may be privately-held facilities, cooperatives such as rural solar or wind energy producers, and non-energy industrial concerns capable of feeding excess energy into the system.
_


----------



## Ag Driver

I'm still holding 100 shares at $16.73 from a handful of years back. It was one of my first shares and a good learning experience about the dangers of seeking high dividend stocks and why they are red flags. 

I've elected to continue to hold with hopes of a turn around to dump it.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Valid. I keep one penny stock in my account as to remind me why never to buy them. I didn't lose very much but I like the reminder. Now it's just blue chips and index invest everything else. Simple but very effective.


----------



## Dilbert

Ag Driver said:


> I'm still holding 100 shares at $16.73 from a handful of years back. It was one of my first shares and a good learning experience about the dangers of seeking high dividend stocks and why they are red flags.
> 
> I've elected to continue to hold with hopes of a turn around to dump it.


Don't remind me! Not to be a one-up sort of person, but I am stuck with a few thousand at around 16.00 for exactly the same reason as you.

A valuable lesson learned.


----------



## Argonaut

I remember when somebody on this board called TransAlta a "savings-account" stock. A good lesson for those who held it indeed.


----------



## Eder

I remember when President and Chief Executive Officer Steve Snyder went to be interviewed in 2010 i believe on BNN. Being confronted with a paltry 5% total annual return he retorted "What is wrong with that" with much indignation... complete stuffed shirt moron...sorry but Dawn Farrell is but a place holder while Rome burns. 

I am sensitive to TransAlta prospects as I have been close to their business in the 80's-90's when they employed people that had a clue.


----------



## AltaRed

A lot of people in the coal industry were (are) in a time wrap. Whether it is the miners or thermal generating stations, there is just something about the culture that results in 'slow adaptation' to economic and technological change. I remember discussions I had with a certain coal miner in the '90s regarding potential partnering on a few projects. Very difficult to get over the decades long mentality of having to work hard at wringing (fractions of) cents out of work practices and finding out that Rome is burning in the meantime.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I had no idea the culture was that dated and so deeply rooted. Bad sign for any improvement then...


----------



## AltaRed

It may have changed since my exposure to it in the '90s - hence my use of were (are)....


----------



## doctrine

Argonaut said:


> I remember when somebody on this board called TransAlta a "savings-account" stock. A good lesson for those who held it indeed.


I personally dislike comparing any stock to savings or bonds. No matter how stable you may think the company is, stocks are publicly traded and can become volatile at a moment's notice. You can lose years worth of dividends in a day if it gets crazy enough. Risk is not equal across asset classes.


----------



## Dilbert

That's it! I just ditched my remaining couple of thousand TA's this morning and, in spite of taking a nasty $$ hit, I feel redeemed!!! It's like being reborn. All the weight is off my shoulders, I know I will no longer get depressed when visiting my Webbroker.

Now, what to do with the meagre proceeds, in an up market....? Hmmm....


----------



## Ag Driver

Dilbert said:


> That's it! I just ditched my remaining couple of thousand TA's this morning and, in spite of taking a nasty $$ hit, I feel redeemed!!! It's like being reborn. All the weight is off my shoulders, I know I will no longer get depressed when visiting my Webbroker.
> 
> Now, what to do with the meagre proceeds, in an up market....? Hmmm....


Was it simply annoying you? Did you _need _the money? Why wouldn't you wait it out vs buy high and sell low?

I've been asking often about what I should do with this brick of red turd. Because it is _only _ (I use that term lightly) a $930 unrealized loss at this point, I'm still hanging in.


----------



## Dilbert

Ag Driver said:


> Was it simply annoying you? Did you _need _the money? Why wouldn't you wait it out vs buy high and sell low?
> 
> I've been asking often about what I should do with this brick of red turd. Because it is _only _ (I use that term lightly) a $930 unrealized loss at this point, I'm still hanging in.


No, I didn't need the money, but I use two criteria, YMMV. First is I ask myself the question, if I didn't own any, would I buy in today? Clearly, I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole based on the divvy alone. Secondly, I have sat on it for a long time, ( how long is enough is a personal decision, I guess) and I plan to take some of the proceeds from my unregistered account and fund my TFSA 2017 contribution and get the money working again in a tax free environment.


----------



## hboy54

Dilbert said:


> That's it! I just ditched my remaining couple of thousand TA's this morning and, in spite of taking a nasty $$ hit, I feel redeemed!!! It's like being reborn. All the weight is off my shoulders, I know I will no longer get depressed when visiting my Webbroker.
> 
> Now, what to do with the meagre proceeds, in an up market....? Hmmm....


Ahh the ghosts of investments past. These still show up as holdings valued at zero even though they long ago went bankrupt. I don't know why there is not some automatic mechanism at the brokerage level to clear these out.

Nortel, both common and preferred
Fracmaster
White Rose Craft and Nursery
American Eco Corp.
Aimglobal Technologies

hboy54


----------



## AltaRed

Ag Driver said:


> Was it simply annoying you? Did you _need _the money? Why wouldn't you wait it out vs buy high and sell low?
> 
> I've been asking often about what I should do with this brick of red turd. Because it is _only _ (I use that term lightly) a $930 unrealized loss at this point, I'm still hanging in.


Remember the Kenny Rogers' lyrics... "You've got to know when to hold em, when to fold em" Do you not have an exit plan in your IPS (Investment Policy Statement)?


----------



## atrp2biz

Dilbert said:


> That's it! I just ditched my remaining couple of thousand TA's this morning and, in spite of taking a nasty $$ hit, I feel redeemed!!! It's like being reborn. All the weight is off my shoulders, I know I will no longer get depressed when visiting my Webbroker.
> 
> Now, what to do with the meagre proceeds, in an up market....? Hmmm....


Perspective is a funny thing. Depending on entry, one holder of a security contemplates cutting losses while another contemplates letting it ride. This tranche is my lowest entry in TA but I feel like I'm letting it ride by holding on to it.











> First is I ask myself the question, if I didn't own any, would I buy in today?


This is always the question to ask oneself. In the end, the market doesn't care what your ACB is. It doesn't care what you're unrealized gain/loss is. All that matters is your view of the future.


----------



## Eder

hboy54 said:


> Ahh the ghosts of investments past. These still show up as holdings valued at zero even though they long ago went bankrupt. I don't know why there is not some automatic mechanism at the brokerage level to clear these out.
> 
> Nortel, both common and preferred
> Fracmaster
> White Rose Craft and Nursery
> American Eco Corp.
> Aimglobal Technologies
> 
> hboy54


Hey this could be fun... I own

CHASE RESOURCE CORP NEW 3500 shares
PALLET PALLET INC 2500 shares
URBAN RESOURCE TECHNOLOGIES INC 2000 shares
Troymin Resources 2000 shares 

Total value $0.00


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## Ag Driver

AltaRed said:


> Remember the Kenny Rogers' lyrics... "You've got to know when to hold em, when to fold em" Do you not have an exit plan in your IPS (Investment Policy Statement)?


Since starting out, I have moved towards indexing vs stock picking. I have exit strategies on the way up for my stock picks and it has worked out favorably for me in the past....but I'm foggy on when to not catch a falling knife. This is my only falling knife so far.


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## Dilbert

Hey, I'm a buy and hold kinda guy, but enough is enough. I chalk it up as an expensive lesson learned...I bailed very early on in my TFSA, then tried to ride out holdings held in other accounts. 

Also, my feeling is that they are stuck with big coal and that is going to be problematic for them. The foray into renewables was more a PR/marketing ploy than a long term money making strategy, IMHO.


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Eder said:


> ...Total value $0.00


I suspect they do have value beyond $0 as long as they are in a non-registered account. If you sold them and crystalized the capital loss, you could then crystalize equal gains from one of your winners (then buy it back immediately) and pay no tax on the gain this year. You would have reset the ACB of your winner to a higher amount and reduced its potential capital gains when you sell it in the future. 
I've been taken to task for suggesting this elsewhere though. The consensus seems to be to let your losses ride.


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## atrp2biz

Dilbert said:


> Also, my feeling is that they are stuck with big coal and that is going to be problematic for them. The foray into renewables was more a PR/marketing ploy than a long term money making strategy, IMHO.


The value of the mines have already been impaired. Converting their current coal units to gas is cost effective and provides value particularly with a capacity market which reduces the dependence on a high capacity factor.

http://www.power-eng.com/articles/p...ing-the-myths-of-coal-to-gas-conversions.html

Another thing to consider is with the cowboy policies from the NDP, no one in their right mind, save for the incumbents (TransAlta, Capital Power, ATCO), would invest in baseload generation in the province. The Shepard experience (ENMAX) will also highly discent another 800+ MW combined-cycle generation turbine from entering the market. The future of Alberta is going to be gas conversions of existing coal plants and some small entry of simple-cycle GTs (aside from renewables of course).

The incumbents like CPX and TA have taken their medicine (via suppository) over the past decade, but with the PPAs expiring, the province is going to have to rely on them going forward.


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## Dilbert

atrp2biz said:


> The value of the mines have already been impaired. Converting their current coal units to gas is cost effective and provides value particularly with a capacity market which reduces the dependence on a high capacity factor.
> 
> http://www.power-eng.com/articles/p...ing-the-myths-of-coal-to-gas-conversions.html
> 
> Another thing to consider is with the cowboy policies from the NDP, no one in their right mind, save for the incumbents (TransAlta, Capital Power, ATCO), would invest in baseload generation in the province. The Shepard experience (ENMAX) will also highly discent another 800+ MW combined-cycle generation turbine from entering the market. The future of Alberta is going to be gas conversions of existing coal plants and some small entry of simple-cycle GTs (aside from renewables of course).
> 
> The incumbents like CPX and TA have taken their medicine (via suppository) over the past decade, but with the PPAs expiring, the province is going to have to rely on them going forward.


I hope you're right and that it works for everyone holding on. I just don't see an upside based on my 60 YO timeline.


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## AltaRed

atrp2biz said:


> The value of the mines have already been impaired. Converting their current coal units to gas is cost effective and provides value particularly with a capacity market which reduces the dependence on a high capacity factor.


I imagine conversion economics will also depend on the relative age of the existing plant. When existing plant gets to about 30 years old, there is not much life left in the ex-boiler components. However, it should be a no-brainer to convert units built in the last 15 years to gas. Still you have to wonder what managements were thinking continuing to build coaf fired units over the past 15 years to begin with. The Climate Change push was already in full momentum by 2000.


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## atrp2biz

^^Actually the opposite is true.

http://www.power-eng.com/articles/p...coal-to-gas-plant-conversions-in-the-u-s.html



> *The most likely candidate for a coal-to-gas conversion are 50-plus year old units*, less than 300 megawatts in capacity and generally early generation sub-critical utility boilers - the least efficient, most-costly to operate and with the lowest overall capacity factor in the coal fleet. The majority of these older, inefficient units are located in the eastern United States. Typically, these plants have limited or no air quality control systems already in place, and the cost of adding an AQCS to comply with regulations is prohibitively high. Most plants west of the Mississippi River built in the 1960s or later aren't as attractive as candidates for fuel switching since they are often larger, more efficient and tend to burn Powder River Basin coal, a cost effective fuel with a more favorable emission profile than the bituminous burned by many eastern plants.


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## Spudd

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> I suspect they do have value beyond $0 as long as they are in a non-registered account. If you sold them and crystalized the capital loss, you could then crystalize equal gains from one of your winners (then buy it back immediately) and pay no tax on the gain this year. You would have reset the ACB of your winner to a higher amount and reduced its potential capital gains when you sell it in the future.
> I've been taken to task for suggesting this elsewhere though. The consensus seems to be to let your losses ride.


You can also carry forward capital losses indefinitely so you don't have to actually crystallize the gains now if you don't want.


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## AltaRed

atrp2biz said:


> ^^Actually the opposite is true.
> 
> http://www.power-eng.com/articles/p...coal-to-gas-plant-conversions-in-the-u-s.html


I was thinking about Alberta's currently operating coal fired units rather than many of the dinosaurs south of the border. Old plants that have been fully amortized, e.g. 40 yrs old or so, should be decommissioned in any event.


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## treva84

Bought some preferred shares; avoiding common shares.


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## atrp2biz

AltaRed said:


> I was thinking about Alberta's currently operating coal fired units rather than many of the dinosaurs south of the border. Old plants that have been fully amortized, e.g. 40 yrs old or so, should be decommissioned in any event.


What's the difference between US and Canadian plants? 

Thermal plants are more than capable of operating beyond 50 years, especially with a capacity market. Plenty of examples throughout the world.

Bottom line--gas conversion is going to happen in Alberta for economic and grid stability reasons.


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## atrp2biz

treva84 said:


> Bought some preferred shares; avoiding common shares.


FYI

http://www.transalta.com/newsroom/n...orporation-announces-preferred-share-exchange


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## AltaRed

atrp2biz said:


> Bottom line--gas conversion is going to happen in Alberta for economic and grid stability reasons.


We can absolutely agree on that point.


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## AltaRed

atrp2biz said:


> FYI
> 
> http://www.transalta.com/newsroom/n...orporation-announces-preferred-share-exchange


James Hymas wrote about this on his blog http://prefblog.com/?p=34114 in not very complementary terms. The shaft for existing shareholders is one way to put it.


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## treva84

atrp2biz said:


> FYI
> 
> http://www.transalta.com/newsroom/n...orporation-announces-preferred-share-exchange





AltaRed said:


> James Hymas wrote about this on his blog http://prefblog.com/?p=34114 in not very complementary terms. The shaft for existing shareholders is one way to put it.


Which is exactly why I bought the shares. If it goes through as it is and you purchased shares based on today's prices there's an arb opportunity for 9-11% depending on which class you hold. Of course, the closer you bought to par the less of the arb opportunity you have. Most pref shareholders have likely been holding as the price dropped and I suspect many will break even / take a loss with the current deal. Hence, I assume most will vote no and it won't go through, so TA will have to offer further incentive, which is why I bought. 

If the deal doesn't go through and TA doesn't offer up a further incentive and things remain status quo then I continue to hold, collect the dividend, and hope with rising rates I get some capital appreciation in the prefs. In this situation, the biggest risk would be TA going out of business. 

In my opinion, if you buy in at today's prices it's a minimal downside, high upside trade. Let's see if it works!


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## AltaRed

I speculated that is what you may have been doing. It would have been helpful for you to have explained rationale in your first post. I posted to make others aware what is going on so that they don't buy blindly without due diligence.


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## treva84

AltaRed said:


> I speculated that is what you may have been doing. It would have been helpful for you to have explained rationale in your first post. I posted to make others aware what is going on so that they don't buy blindly without due diligence.


Fair enough. I wasn't trying to be misleading, but in the future I'll flesh things out a bit better


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## treva84

" Following the announcement of the proposed Arrangement, the Corporation decided to increase the premium on the Series A preferred shares resulting in an increase in the exchange ratio for the Series A preferred shares to 0.530 which represents an implied offer premium of 10.9% relative to the December 16, 2016 closing price for the Series A preferred shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the "TSX"). This increase more appropriately aligns the premium offered to Series A preferred shareholders to the premium offered to holders of other series of Existing Preferred Shares. The Corporation believes this adjustment will increase preferred shareholder support of the proposed Arrangement while maintaining fairness for holders of all other series of Existing Preferred Shares.

The exchange ratios of the Series B preferred shares, Series C preferred shares, Series E preferred shares and Series G preferred shares remain unchanged at 0.550, 0.705, 0.790 and 0.820, respectively. These ratios provide premiums in the range of 13% to 17%."

http://www.transalta.com/newsroom/n...-files-management-information-circular-relati


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## Eder

TooT TooT!!!! Crash....(train wreck emote here)


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## stantistic

*TranAlta preferred share conversion proposal*

The position of Hymas of PrefBlog is clear. 
Does anyone have different views ?


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## stantistic

*Vote Results*

After a vote is held, management will announce the results. What guarantee is there to shareholders that those are indeed the true results and not just some number pulled out of the air to suit management ?


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## Eder

Well you will be offered vaseline along with the results.


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## Ag Driver

Will this turd ever hit $17? I am down over 50% and I'm wondering if I should cut my losses and move on. It is "only" a loss of $900 in my TFSA for me. I do not need the money, and I would simply plunk the cash into my couch potato. Any thoughts?


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## OnlyMyOpinion

I cut my losses 2 years ago. They were substantially more than $900. It was difficult because TA had been a very good long term hold.
Unfortunately in the TSFA you can't use the loss to offset a gain but consider the money freed up to redeploy into something with both dividends and a stronger growth outlook. 
I don't follow TA anymore but a quick look suggests the fundamentals are still abysmal. Am I correct that the 12mo outlook is $9-$10?


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## stantistic

*Comments*

a) Re post #377 - I have been told by TransAlta (by phone) that the tabulation of vote results will be conducted by a commercial firm called Broadridge. 


b) As for Series E (TA.PR.H) pref shares, my unreliable calculations indicate that they will reset in September at about 4.6% for the next five years. This is about the current median yield of about two dozen 5 year resets. So this is no excuse for the proposed increase in current yields being proposed, especially not when compared to the scalping I will be taking on the possible capital gains. Therefore, I will be voting nay.


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## stantistic

*Bad to Verse - TransAlta*

In the conversion vote there's more money to be had 
By preferred shareholders - but just a tad. 
But when the common shareholders realize 
Where that money will come from
They are going to be a tad sad.


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## stantistic

This morning the TransAlta website announced that they will not be proceeding with their preferred share conversion.


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## treva84

stantistic said:


> This morning the TransAlta website announced that they will not be proceeding with their preferred share conversion.


In essence, the preferred share offering was a way to restructure the balance sheet right? Now that they are not proceeding with that, does anyone have any insight into how they will move forward? Presumably management still wants to restructure things - I am wondering if they could do something more forceful and less shareholder friendly.


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## like_to_retire

I don't know if anything can help TA. I gave up on it long ago.

Brookfield to invest C$750 million in TransAlta's clean energy push

ltr


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## agent99

I think I got out of TA when it was in mid-teens. Lost a little, but happy to be out. They own a large wind farm near us. Maybe one day their clean energy will pay off?


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## doctrine

Transalta effectively sold a 33% stake in all of their hydro assets to Brookfield, which will be held in a separate entity. Brookfield doesn't want to touch the rest of the Transalta mess, especially the coal. This is probably just a foot in the door to pick up the rest of the assets if/when Transalta has future difficulties or decides to reduce its debt. Hydro assets sell at a very high premium but are also high quality assets. Low quality utilities have been selling them for short term financing to the long, slow players like Brookfield.


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## londoncalling

TransAlta Renewables provides update on wind turbine failure | BOE Report TA is the parent comapnay of RNW TransAlta Renewables (RNW) | Canadian Money Forum


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## james4beach

What caused this recent TA drop?


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## fireseeker

james4beach said:


> What caused this recent TA drop?


The market wasn't impressed with TA's latest earnings report.


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