# Buckle in, things are going to get expensive!



## Userkare (Nov 17, 2014)

The TV news has lately been reporting the story of food prices expected to rise next year...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/food-prices-to-jump-in-2017-1.3882538

I think it might be just the tip of the iceberg, the perfect storm!

- Lower Canadian dollar. Increases the price of everything with a foreign component, and everything else - just because they can!
- Trump possibly stopping cheap Mexican labour in the agricultural sector. Cost to farmers for harvest labour will be passed on.
- US protectionism - but would that affect US exports to Canada?
- Carbon taxes. Jeez, this is going to make everything that's manufactured, or needs to be transported more expensive. Not to mention the cost to individual households for transportation, heating, cooking, etc.... you know, those frivolous things that we all do that we can cut back on. Many ( unionized ) workers will probably just demand a higher wage to compensate for the increased cost of living, thus further driving up the cost of everything including municipal, provincial, and federal taxes.

So get ready for a fast slide downhill. On the positive side, at least we have a qualified ski instructor at the helm to lead us there.


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

From my experience, doomsayers are pretty much always wrong. Life goes on. The world keeps turning, and things don't turn out to be as bad as they seem now. 

Probably the only time the doomsayers were right was when a major country elected a fascist demagogue as its leader.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

Agree. I do not have much time for the naysayers. 

Besides, the dollar goes down when oil goes down. The lower dollar may increase some costs but the low oil price reduces gas and heating fuels. Just ask those who heat with oil. Natural gas is also at a low point in price.

We live in one of the best countries in the world. We need to appreciate what we have and look optimistically to the future. Our changing economy will provide other opportunities for growth.


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## amitdi (May 31, 2012)

the chart says +3 to +5%. I mean really? does that even make a visible difference? The inflation is 1-2% anyways.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Davis said:


> From my experience, doomsayers are pretty much always wrong. Life goes on. The world keeps turning, and things don't turn out to be as bad as they seem now.
> 
> Probably the only time the doomsayers were right was when a major country elected a fascist demagogue as its leader.


What about doom sayers re the climate? Now if you could be as calm about climate change headlines as you are about food price headlines.......


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## lonewolf :) (Sep 13, 2016)

Userkare said:


> The TV news has lately been reporting the story of food prices expected to rise next year...
> 
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/food-prices-to-jump-in-2017-1.3882538
> 
> ...


 Anyone wanting to become an expert skier never, never take ski lessons from CSIA or ski lessons from or PSIA. PMTS is the way to go. Pretty much the Complete opposite of CSIA.


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

Pluto said:


> What about doom sayers re the climate? Now if you could be as calm about climate change headlines as you are about food price headlines.......


Userkare seems to think that things are going to H-E-double-hockey-sticks in 2017. I don't see anyone suggesting a climate castrophe in the next 12 months.


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## Userkare (Nov 17, 2014)

Nobody's predicting the end of days, just the possibility of a sudden price increase in many of the necessities. Using the analogy of "climate change" is not a good fit, I would say that "weather" is a better analogy. We know that when certain atmospheric conditions are present, it can be reasonably predicted that, in the near short term, there will be a high probability of a lake-effect snow or freezing rain event. Of course there can be other unforeseen factors that might make that event more or less severe, or even not happen at all. We also know that longer term weather forecasts have a higher degree of uncertainty.

Economic forecasts obviously have a scope of a longer period than the next few days, which means a higher degree of uncertainty. However, when a government announces a new tax on a commodity that is a basic component of just about everything we consume, it could reasonably be predicted that this will cause a ripple through the supply chain that ends at our wallets. Other, as yet unforeseen, factors may either mitigate or exacerbate the situation; who can say for sure?

For those who only see sunny skies ahead, then by all means please feel free to ignore this thread. I posted in "frugality" because I, like some others here, are trying to stretch our limited dollars as far as we can. News of a possible imminent price increases should be given serious consideration - as would a bad weather forecast. What could it hurt to curtail some unnecessary spending in anticipation of higher prices? If nothing happens, then you have some extra cash on hand; better that than a budget coming up short.


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## janus10 (Nov 7, 2013)

ian said:


> Agree. I do not have much time for the naysayers.
> 
> Besides, the dollar goes down when oil goes down. The lower dollar may increase some costs but the low oil price reduces gas and heating fuels. Just ask those who heat with oil. Natural gas is also at a low point in price.
> 
> We live in one of the best countries in the world. We need to appreciate what we have and look optimistically to the future. Our changing economy will provide other opportunities for growth.


Natural Gas today hit more than a one year high. Oil is also creeping up.

YOY transportation costs I would expect will be higher. Plus with low unemployment, wage pressures will start having an impact.


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## OrganicRain (Nov 27, 2016)

Userkare said:


> The TV news has lately been reporting the story of food prices expected to rise next year...
> 
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/food-prices-to-jump-in-2017-1.3882538
> 
> ...


_Not necessarily_
In fact, I think it's downright unethical for news agencies to broadcast "market predictions" for food and staples. No one knows for sure, but perhaps broadcasting it before it happens (if ever) actually gives a green light to the food megacorps to increase their prices, thus creating a "manufactured" increase.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

The other offset is the price war that is currently occuring in some grocery markets. We are certainly benefiting from it. Walmart and Costco are increasing their respective shares, SDM is selling groceries beside prescriptions, along with computers. We buy 2.5lb Starbucks French Roast coffee at Costco for $19 instead of paying $13/15lb at various other retail outlets. Same with numerous other products.

Natural Gas may have hit a high for the year but the price is still low, historically. I filled up with gas yesterday @ .87 litre. Costco was .83 but it is very cold so we went full serve, no line up. I think that it the past I have paid as much as 1.19.

People change their buying habits when prices change. The world is not ending. When our dollar hit .60ish a few years ago our world in Canada did not come to an end. This is not to say that food prices are not a challenge. They are. I would like to see an end to price fixing in Canada as it pertains to dairy. Get rid of the protection and let the market find it's place. We tend to buy a fair bit of imported cheese when were are in the US. It is 30 percent less expensive, adjusted for currency.


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## Prospector (Jul 25, 2014)

Transportation costs are going up? Is that because batteries for bike lights will be more expensive?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

GM, Ford, and Chrysler announced layoffs in their small car assembly plants. Their SUV and truck plants are working at capacity levels.

It didn't take long for cheaper gas to bring the people back into the large vehicles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-in-five-plants-next-month-as-car-sales-slow


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

Inflation rate slows to 1.2%

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-november-1.3908525.


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## Userkare (Nov 17, 2014)

..... and forecast to rise slowly http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/consumer-price-index-cpi/forecast

Quote: _Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) - was last predicted on Thursday, December 22, 2016. _

Right, and I just shoveled 8cm of snow that had been forecast as <2cm.


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