# Blogger Stock Picking Contest - Can We Do Better?



## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

A bunch of Financial Bloggers are picking 4 stocks for the year. 

http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/2010-stock-picking-contest-results/

http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/top-stock-pick-results-from-2010.htm

These are their results for 2010. 

They'll be coming out with their stock picks for 2011 very soon...

I'll bet we can do better, I know I can anyways 

So here's my picks for 2011 - I'm picking warrants. That's just how I roll. You pick what floats your boat. 

Canadian Western Bank CWB.WT.TO $14.53 (Financials)
Gazit America Inc GAA.WT.TO $01.15 (Medical Buildings Ont)
Brick Group BRK.WT.TO $01.80 (Furniture)
Bankers Petroleum BNK.WT.A.TO $05.40 (Oil)

Lets see how we stack up!


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Platinum _(NYSE: PPLT)_ 176.11
Boeing _(NYSE: BA)_ 65.26
Inter Pipeline _(TSX: IPL.UN)_ 14.92
Argonaut Gold _(TSX: AR)_ 4.62

Does it include dividends?


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

Yes it does..


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I accidentally deleted my original post. Is it possible to get it back?


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## Potato (Apr 3, 2009)

Well, I would have come in dead last for the 2010 bloggers stock picking contest, but I can't resist  Though these are more speculative than what I mostly own in real life, this time around there's a little more similarity than last year, which was really off-the-wall.

1. Short BNS (I think the end of the year may bring some panic selling to the Canadian banks)

2. Long RCI.B (I don't expect too much out of Rogers, but it's finally starting to be valued like a utility rather than some growth sensation)

3. Long IM (Same reason as last year)

4. Short HBU (Again, I'd never short gold in real life, but just don't believe in it)


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## plen (Nov 18, 2010)

I'll throw my hat into the mix.

NASDAQ:NXPI NXP Semiconductors - Specifically for an expected rise in smartphone payment technologies but solid all around - $21.36

TSX:SWY - Stornoway Diamonds - Assessment of Renard, Quebec mine in 3rd quarter could be huge. - $0.61

TSX:IMX - IMAX Corporation - Consumers love their big entertainment, they were up 99% last year. Do they have any competition? - $28.04

NYSE:JNJ - Johnson and Johnson - $63.01


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## osc (Oct 17, 2009)

Picking individual stocks for a single year is a statistically losing proposition for the average investor/trader (with no army of investigators and no insider info). The 2010 results show that (when compared to an index): 4 above the SP500, 6 below.
As a gambling exercise is fun, though.


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

Osc stop being such an engineer and give us your best guess for the year


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

I'm tired of hearing "you can't beat the market, don't even try". The people who say that are the people who can't beat the market. Therefore they should stick to their ETFs and leave the pickers alone.

First day of trading and my Boeing pick is _smashing_ the Dow by more than twofold! Haha.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

NASDAQ:QCOM $49.49 Qualcomm - They make the Snapdragon processor in smartphones/tablets and they generate revenue from patents on current 3G technology and they have the most patents in the upcoming 4G network

NASDAQ:GOOG $594 Google - I think they will lead the next generation of IT with Android and cloud computing

NASDAQ:JOYG $86.75 Joy Global - The big miners are expected to boost production in 2011 with the rising demand for commodities and the profits for the main mining equipment company should be a given

CVE:GER $0.255 Glen Eagle Resources - Exploration of lithium which is in demand for electric car batteries.. they have claims 15 kms away from the lithium mine in Val D'Or


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

mode3sour said:


> NASDAQ:JOYG $86.75 Joy Global - The big miners are expected to boost production in 2011 with the rising demand for commodities and the profits for the main mining equipment company should be a given


Except it is open source. Even if it is the next windows it will never generate windows level money.


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## groceryalerts (May 5, 2009)

Here are my picks: 

http://www.groceryalerts.ca/best-four-stock-picks-2011


ARISE Technologies Corporation
Royal Bank of Canada
Unilever
Exchange Income Corporation


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

clovis8 said:


> Except it is open source. Even if it is the next windows it will never generate windows level money.


Yea Google is one of those stocks I watch grow year after year but can never justify buying

I may swap something in, because it would be hard to see it keep growing (like I say every year haha)


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## Sustainable PF (Nov 5, 2010)

I posted my picks on TFBs site, but here they are again:

China Ming Yang Wind… MY
Ecology and Environment EEI
EnerNOC, Inc. ENOC
TransAlta Corporation TA

(trying to see how alternative energy and green focused companies will do)


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## financeguru (Jan 18, 2010)

My stock picks are:

Apple
Delcath
Silver Wheaton
Bank of America


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

LLL
BIM
UUU
CVE
all TSX


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Things can of course change in a NY minute, however, so far my #1 pick for 2010/2011 is going through the roof. Potash is now trading at $171+ and even higher in NY. To think that just 5 months ago BHP had offered $130 a share, which I believe translated into a mere 10% premium back in August/2010. 

Mr. Doyle had been right after all when he said: "I'm not saying I'm opposed to a sale, but I'm opposed to a steal of the company." I bought the stock exactly a year ago at just over $100 a share after reading so much about it, but not until I read various sources, including chemical news and industrial science did I really understand the importance of this substance, live & learn I suppose! I told myself I would sell at $200, now I'm not so sure, this is the hardest part. 


Happy to see that RIM is doing well also.


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## RealizedReturns (Oct 16, 2010)

my 4 picks (see my post here)
LLL (my take)
DML (my take)
SGF
BMO


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

How is everyone's picks doing ? 

I was up 12 % yesterday, but lost 1% today for an overall gain of 11% as of this moment


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## plen (Nov 18, 2010)

Berubeland said:


> How is everyone's picks doing ?
> 
> I was up 12 % yesterday, but lost 1% today for an overall gain of 11% as of this moment


How does one calculate this? Do you assume an equal weight across your picks?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

+10% so far based on equal weight on all 4

Qualcomm is about to announce a new dual core Snapdragon processor and Glen Eagle is about to announce drilling results from Val D'Or


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## plen (Nov 18, 2010)

plen said:


> NASDAQ:NXPI NXP Semiconductors - Specifically for an expected rise in smartphone payment technologies but solid all around - $21.36 $26.145 +22%
> 
> TSX:SWY - Stornoway Diamonds - Assessment of Renard, Quebec mine in 3rd quarter could be huge. - $0.61 $0.60 -1.64%
> 
> ...


Equal weighted gain = 3.44%


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Klh

pdn

lac

li


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

Yeah I assumed that I bought $25,000 of each warrant on the Dec 31st at that price. 

Problem is one warrant hasn't traded since before I "bought" it. I couldn't have bought it because none were for trade. The return on it is 0% 

I created a virtual portfolio at Globe Investor so it's easy to track how it's going.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I accidentally edited/deleted my original post.  Wonder if admin. could post back the original?

**************

I'm doing quite well, but it's because I purchased the stocks in early 2010, except for BP & MLNX, which were purchased later. 

Agricultural/tech/oil/mining stocks continue to be my top picks for 2011 & probably in 2012 as well. The price posted on my January 13th, 2011 post reflected the price of the day, not the day I bought.

1. POT: $103.13/$184.71 = 79% [52 week low: $88.68].
2. MLNX: $20.05/$27.54 = 37% [52 week low: $14.60].
3. Oil: $38.38/$46.07 = 20%. This was pure luck because I almost bought it days before the oil spill at $60 [52 week low: $26.75].
4. BHP: $64/$93.52 = 46% [52 week low: $58.38].

Average: 45.5% and I predict another 30% to 40% increase on the above sectors by year-end.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

http://thewildinvestor.com I have to say thank you as I purchased SCHLUMBERGER on January 11 for $82.16 ,it is now over $90.00.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. POT: $103.13/$184.71 = 79% [52 week low: $88.68].
> 2. MLNX: $20.05/$27.54 = 37% [52 week low: $14.60].
> 3. Oil: $38.38/$46.07 = 20%. This was pure luck because I almost bought it days before the oil spill at $60 [52 week low: $26.75].
> 4. BHP: $64/$93.52 = 46% [52 week low: $58.38].


Yea but since Dec 31, POT is up ~20%, MLNX is up 5% and BHP ADR 0.5%, not sure what OIL is. Average ~8.5% YTD


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

You're right, that's why I mentioned having bought them in 2010. 

I want to compare results from one year to the next for my picks of 2010/2011, but you're right & I guess I did not follow Berubeland's instructions & should have calculated for 2011 only, my mistake, sorry! And silly me, by oil I meant BP.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

GER +12% YTD
JOYG +12% YTD
GOOG +3% YTD
QCOM +20% YTD

+12%

I think these all still have room to grow this year


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## plen (Nov 18, 2010)

plen said:


> NASDAQ:NXPI NXP Semiconductors - Specifically for an expected rise in smartphone payment technologies but solid all around - $21.43 $31.95 +49.09%
> 
> TSX:SWY - Stornoway Diamonds - Assessment of Renard, Quebec mine in 3rd quarter could be huge. - $2.44 $2.24 -8.20%
> 
> ...


Equal weighted gain = 7.39%

One pick doing everything.


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## plen (Nov 18, 2010)

plen said:


> NASDAQ:NXPI NXP Semiconductors - Specifically for an expected rise in smartphone payment technologies but solid all around - $21.43 $30.59 +42.74%
> 
> TSX:SWY - Stornoway Diamonds - Assessment of Renard, Quebec mine in 3rd quarter could be huge. - $2.44 $2.53 3.69%
> 
> ...


Equal weighted gain = 13.00%

Good month


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## Sustainable PF (Nov 5, 2010)

EEI + 29.06
MY -7.64
TA -3.31
ENOC -22.76

Ouch. ENOC had some false/bad earnings reports, MY has just stunk even w/ the nuclear crisis, TA has been dull and EEI has been a wild ride. I own EEI and MY, got out of TA before the New Year and glad I didn't put anything into ENOC!


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Ger *+30%*
joyg *+17%*
goog *-1%*
qcom *+8%*

*+13%*


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

> CMF	Gain
> LLL	27.9
> BIM	4.2
> UUU	-16.4
> ...


BIM was taken out mid-Jan for its gain for the year so on a cash basis, it is 4.2% for 2 weeks, for an anuallized gain of 4.2 x 104 = 436%. 
UUU is in trouble since the Japanese tsunami. Of course I would have sold it in Feb for 6.80 for a 42% gain in the real world!


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

*Quarterly Update*

Ok the results have been posted for the quarterly progress report. 

http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/top-stock-picks-2011-q1-results.htm

Add up your numbers folks and declare where you stand up! 

Bankers Petroleum	BNK.WT.A-T 4,768.52	19.1	4,768.52	19.1 
Canadian Western Bank	CWB.WT-T	5,299.38	21.2	5,299.38	21.2 
Gazit America	GAA.WT-T	14,130.43	56.5	14,130.43	56.5 
The Brick Ltd.	BRK.WT-T	-2,083.33	-8.3	-2,083.33	-8.3 
Total C$ Stocks	22,115.00	22.1	22,115.00	22.1 

I'm up 22.1 % 

How about the rest of you?


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

SLB-N 100.00 92.77 9,277.00 8,217.00 1,060.00 12.9
BNS-T 79.00 59.48 4,698.92 4,180.68 518.24 12.4
cnq-T 120.00 47.47 5,696.40 4,999.00 697.40 14.0 
td-t 34.00 86.14 2,928.76 2,580.60 348.16 13.5

Just a few from 2011 ,My total portfolio is up 11.4% in 2011.
The lemon is my Enbridge only up 4.1%


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

marina628 said:


> The lemon is my Enbridge only up 4.1%


You must have bought high and/or recently; up 21.54% in 1 year [50% since Nov.09].

YTD:

BHP: $101.30 = *9.01%*
BP: $47.31 = *7.11%*
MLNX: $27.42 = *5.01%* [more than Apple!] 
POT: $56.45/US$58.90 = *9.93%/14.53%* [have in both currencies]

Total: 8.34%


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

GER 25% (big expectations still here)
JOYG 16%
GOOG -8%
QCOM 15% (actually bought ARMH instead and it's up 51%)

Overall +11.3% YTD


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Inter Pipeline: 6.2%
Platinum: 5.9%
Boeing: 22.9%
Argonaut Gold: 16.9%

Total Return: 13% YTD

TSX only up 4% or so with dividends.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Question for those of you who did this. Did you invest in what you picked and how did you allocated your capital? Is it equal weighting?


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## plen (Nov 18, 2010)

plen said:


> NASDAQ:NXPI NXP Semiconductors - Specifically for an expected rise in smartphone payment technologies but solid all around - $21.43 $33.40 +55.86%
> 
> TSX:SWY - Stornoway Diamonds - Assessment of Renard, Quebec mine in 3rd quarter could be huge. - $2.44 $2.26 -7.38%
> 
> ...


Equal weighted gain = 17.59%

Causalien for the purposes of the little contest here it's all equal weight (I plugged in $1000 worth of shares for each to determine returns). 

I bought SWY back in Nov and NXPI in Feb but don't hold the other two.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

GER *+57%* and climbing
JOYG *+10%*
GOOG *-15%*
QCOM *+15%*

Overall YTD *+16%*


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

GER *+100%*
JOYG *+8%*
GOOG *+2%*
QCOM *+11%*

Overall YTD *+30%*


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## FrugalTrader (Oct 13, 2008)

Blogger update is coming up tomorrow and its not going to be pretty!


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Gee, and I thought that just about everyone on this forum was telling me not to worry??


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

GER *+69%*
JOYG *-28%*
GOOG *-13%*
QCOM *-2%*

Overall *+6%* Ouch


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## FrugalTrader (Oct 13, 2008)

+6% is still better than all the bloggers in the competition!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I don't even want to look, but I know that only 1 out of the 4 is in positive territory.  

I only wish I had not held 2 of those stocks for long term [I would be laughing now if I had cashed out at the 52 week high reached earlier in the year].

Invest & learn!


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

My picks on this thread:

*Platinum*: -21.7%
*Boeing*: 14.9%
*Inter Pipeline*: 31.3%
*Argonaut Gold*: 50.4%

Average Return: 18.7%

Of the four, in real life I did not invest in Platinum or Boeing this past year. Inter Pipeline is my largest holding, and Argonaut Gold my smallest.

My actual portfolio return for 2011 was 32%, helped along by some timely option trades. Since this is my lucky 777th post, I'm blessing myself and others with continued success in 2012!


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## FrugalTrader (Oct 13, 2008)

Wow Argonaut, that is a very impressive return for a very challenging year. Congrats!


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Can we put a sticky on Argonaut's post? Hope he is as accurate in 2012


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

If anyone is interested, there is a hedge fund contest over on Financial Webring where you pick 2 Longs and 2 Shorts. Not for the feint of heart. I was the runner-up in 2011 with 14% gain.
2012 Hedge Fund Contest
There is an award at year end to the winner.


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

Berubeland said:


> A bunch of Financial Bloggers are picking 4 stocks for the year.
> 
> http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/2010-stock-picking-contest-results/
> 
> ...


Hi All the year is up so this is how my picks went. 

C$ Stocks
Bankers Petroleum	BNK.WT.A-T	4,629.63	11,574.07	-13,425.93 
Canadian Western Bank CWB.WT-T(delisted)	1,720.58 29,576.74 4,576.74 
Gazit America	GAA.WT-T	21,739.13	3,043.48	-21,956.52	
The Brick Ltd.	BRK.WT-T	13,888.89	29,861.11 4,861.11 
Total C$ Stocks	74,055.40	-25,944.60 

Overall lack of performance is -25.8% 

Canadian Western Bank bought back all it's warrants in August, it didn't go bankrupt or anything. The big loser is BNK losing over 50% of it's value...


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## cannadian (Dec 30, 2011)

DIA - dow jones index fund
SLV - silver fund
SDRL - seadrill
TGL - transglobe energy

equal weightings for all.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

GER *+33%* fell way back recently
JOYG *-15%* it was positive in Dec..
GOOG *+10%*
QCOM *+13%*

Overall *+10%*

I expected the markets to fall back to reality eventually, but I never expected the Libya and Arab spring in 2011. Many growing pains to come for globalization and the economy


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Since this is paper money and has no consequence if I bet wrong. I want in on this contest through options with the most amount of risk. All my choices on one single call option.

For Jan 2011 to 2012 
BUY
BAC jan 2013 call option, strike price $5 at 2.0~2.04 bid ask spread


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