# Impact of a Japan worst case scenario on the world economy



## Eric (Oct 20, 2009)

What would happen to the world economy if Japan was to face a worst case scenario?

With the help of the US, they did recover from the WW2 rather quickly. Are we on the brink of a long term collapse or a short collapse followed by tremendous growth in demand?

Is there a huge opportunity for Korea, China and others to fill the vacuum?


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## I'm Howard (Oct 13, 2010)

What would the impact on Canada be if a Tsunami hit Vancouver and a Nuclear Reactor in B.C melted down, would the economy collapse, would world demand for goods and services from Canada stop??

Japan, but for a very small part is doing well, they will handle this catastrophe, there will be a surge in construction costs to rebuild this area, then life will continue.

Cameco is probably the hardest hit, but long term, Nuclear Power will grow as oil prices continue up.

EWJ for the long term Investor may be a good buy.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

It could be a decade or two before governments consider nuclear again, this might not be Chernobyl but it's a close 2nd... I think you guys are crazy to buy uranium stocks this early, before any post-catastrophe assessment and state discussion on the issue! I'm putting my bets in the next few years on R&D for green energy alternatives, which, relatively speaking (time researched vs. energy produced), has grown painfully slow.

Nuclear could make a comeback once 4th generation reactors are commercially available, and 2&3G can be decommissioned and replaced. Decades away. I definitely don't think Japan will build anymore.


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## Eric (Oct 20, 2009)

Actually my concern was not so much nuclear stocks, but concern on the economy in general. European stocks are down 5% this morning.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

well said ddkay.

on days like this, in times like this, i buy nothing, i sell nothing. I take shelter & look out over the land.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> well said ddkay.
> 
> on days like this, in times like this, i buy nothing, i sell nothing. I take shelter & look out over the land.


Same here.


I feel guilthy of thoughts about profiting from this, yet if there is anything good to come out of this is possible accelertion of clean energy advancement, wind and sun will not be a health hazard after such an event.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Maybe this event is just an excuse to have a correction. Europe seems to be selling off disproportionately to the effect of this event.


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## loggedout (Dec 30, 2009)

Eric said:


> What would happen to the world economy if Japan was to face a worst case scenario?
> 
> With the help of the US, they did recover from the WW2 rather quickly. Are we on the brink of a long term collapse or a short collapse followed by tremendous growth in demand?
> 
> Is there a huge opportunity for Korea, China and others to fill the vacuum?


Japan's economy has been stagnant for quite some time, as horrible as it may sound, this disaster could be the impetus to re-ignite it. Re-building efforts will create demand for work to be done, increasing employment levels, and imports of goods and people for the rebuilding efforts. On a world level, I think this will lead to an increase in demand for various commodities and services. I think non-Japanese companies in auto and electronics will benefit a lot from Japan's problems at this point.

As for the nuclear industry, I'm not sure what will be the outcome. I work in the industry, as a Safety Analyst, and was hoping for renaissance for selfish reasons. But if policy dictates that this is not the way to go, there's no future in it, maybe it's time for me to find something else to do or it could mean that my skills will have a greater demand. I find it hard to believe that China & India with such major energy issues will pull away from building nuke plants, but in the west, it could lead to cancellations and closures of plants depending on public sentiment and the actual fallout from the events at Fukushima after the dust has settled.


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## MikeT (Feb 16, 2010)

The only question is when to start buying Sony.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

stfu you vile obscene bipolar ghoul


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## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

ddkay said:


> I think you guys are crazy to buy uranium stocks this early


that's like saying buying bank stocks is crazy during the 2008 - 2009 crisis.
see where we are now with the same bank stocks if you had bought during that time!
I'm buying U1, CCO, GE and everything else that's taken the head on hit for this.
in a couple of years this will all be behind us and the world will move on to some new crisis some new problem and this will be long forgotten, just as now European debt is forgotten, Libya is forgotten, US financial crisis is forgotten.
there is no long term growth in any of these stocks or even in Japan as a whole so the only way to profit is to buy really low and sell when it stabilises again.
of course no one can predict bottom so i am averging down into these.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

The rising temperatures in the open atmosphere SFP's sitting atop the secondary containment buildings 4/5/6 are the latest major cause for concern: http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1300189582P.pdf


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Everything is clearer in hindsight...

Germany Halts All Pre-1980 Nuclear Power Plants to Conduct Safety Reviews
Brussels debates nuclear future

The bottom has definitely not arrived


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Cash is king right now as we wait for the correction to play itself out. I wouldn't be buying anything, let alone uranium stocks! If I was all guts and no heart I would be shorting the Nikkei.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

> Maybe this event is just an excuse to have a correction. Europe seems to be selling off disproportionately to the effect of this event.


 agreed, this terrible event is amplifying a correction


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## arie (Mar 13, 2011)

*japan*

never mind just Japan ; what about its affect on China and their economy ; the 2 economies are closely connected ; it remains to be determined what will happen to the economies of east asisa who trade extensively with Japan





Eric said:


> What would happen to the world economy if Japan was to face a worst case scenario?
> 
> With the help of the US, they did recover from the WW2 rather quickly. Are we on the brink of a long term collapse or a short collapse followed by tremendous growth in demand?
> 
> Is there a huge opportunity for Korea, China and others to fill the vacuum?


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## MikeT (Feb 16, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> stfu you vile obscene bipolar ghoul


Bite me..

Play station technology? I'll take that at a discount thanks very much. People want to run from these companies, that's their problem. I didn't tell them to sell Sony. Have some faith that Japan can recover, sheesh. They've made it through worse than this. 

I have no doubt that Japan will come out of this stronger than ever.


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## Brian Weatherdon CFP (Jan 18, 2011)

1- If Japan couldn't re-build, materials stocks should fall as they've done these past few days. 

2- However Japan will quickly focus on re-building. Materials sector will enjoy increasing earnings. I like the thought of investing into rising earnings. You too?

3- Interesting to realize active fund managers (not etf.s) with strong materials exposure had reduced that exposure over the past 6-8 weeks (an example I know, down from 24% to 18%) feeling something had to happen in view of high materials prices...and so it has. Crystalizing event was level-9 earthquake and tsunami... and the earth is now 24 cm off its axis. Other than all that, wouldn't we agree Japan will rebuild! So while some have sold everything in sight, fund managers that reduced exposure to materials are now re-gaining material holdings at lower prices.

4- Make a nice donation now to the Red Cross helping Japan, since we already know earnings will repay us as Japan rebuilds out of tragedy.


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## MikeT (Feb 16, 2010)

Humble... Are you just mad because I schooled you on that CCME option straddle a couple months ago??? You were supposedly the pro... Ya right.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I sent $1000 to the red cross today , I am not thinking about investment, we live on same planet so Japan's problem is our problem .


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

marina628 said:


> I sent $1000 to the red cross today , I am not thinking about investment, we live on same planet so Japan's problem is our problem .


Good on ya, Marina... 

I feel a bit sheepish thinking about investments considering the recent events, but my decision to stay ridiculously heavy in cash doesn't look quite as dumb as it did the first 3 months of the year.


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## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

as I write this the Nekkei is up over 5%.
Shanghai is up too.
could be a dead cat bounce, but it is evidence that the world is not ending.
as i said earlier today this is a buying opportunity.
buy anything that's been hit worst incl. uranium, GE, manulife, Nekkei ETF any of these that suit you best.
it will be a bumpy ride bu there is definite upside.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Markets did the same thing last Friday.. didn't make sense then, doesn't make sense now


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Some sectors will benefit from this catastrophe. Timber and building materials and construction come immediately to mind.


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## dcaron (Jul 23, 2009)

*Nikkei 225 9,093.72 +488.57 (5.68%)*

NIKKEI 225 9,093.72 +488.57 (5.68%)
Mar 16 - Close
52 week 8,763.95 - 11,408.17


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## canuck1 (Apr 29, 2010)

A Japan Investing Strategy for the Bold


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

The Chinese government has suspended approval of new nuclear power plants until safety standards can be reviewed and revised in the wake of the ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan, according to media reports Wednesday. The State Council has also required relevant departments to conduct safety checks at existing plants, Xinhua News Agency said. China has 13 nuclear reactors in operation with at least 25 under construction and dozens more in planning, the Wall Street Journal reported.


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Belguy said:


> Some sectors will benefit from this catastrophe. Timber and building materials and construction come immediately to mind.


As much as I hate thinking about capitalizing on this catastrophe, I am thinking about it none the less. I have donated what I can to the Red Cross, after reading marina's post (good on you Marina!). I am now wondering how I can research what companies I should consider buying stock of that sell materials in/to Japan? Can others please tell me how they go about researching things like this?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I have no doubt that all who can, are donating generously at all levels.

Life goes on and so do our investments. I thought the same as Belguy and have already increased my position in obvious markets.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Addy said:


> I am now wondering how I can research what companies I should consider buying stock of that sell materials in/to Japan? Can others please tell me how they go about researching things like this?


I forgot to answer you Addy.

My method is long, but I search for a list of the companies/industries that I'm interested in & then go to their website for an overview, check the location of their markets & move from there.

As an example: 

http://www.ainsworthengineered.com/about-ainsworth/investor-information/

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:ANS


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

to me there's a huge difference between investors taking stock, battening down hatches, cleaning up tag ends, peering into the future in order to try to understand the post-fukushima world that will emerge ...

... and the emotionally stunted dwarfs out cackling for a killer trade like a few we've seen on this forum.

i'm puzzled that there's less publicity about aid for japan, whereas aid for haiti was so instantaneous. Does it perhaps have to do with the fact that haiti was contained, insular; it was easy to send a thousand or 2 so as to, in part, feel better about ourselves, because we knew we'd never be affected as individuals.

but japan will affect the entire planet forever & ever. Our children, our grandchildren, the dna of all the birds that fly & all the fish that swim, every drop of water & crumb of bread that will ever cross our tongues.

we see some anger & blame breaking out now, but i for one would not join it. People even at the highest level in japan hardly knew or know what to say, i think, because what is happening is a biblical tragedy of old testament proportions that no one can understand. Something beyond life as we have ever known it.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> we see some anger & blame breaking out now, but i for one would not join it. People even at the highest level in japan hardly knew or know what to say, i think, because what is happening is a biblical tragedy of old testament proportions that no one can understand. Something beyond life as we have ever known it.


I couldn't agree with you more.

With respect to the donation comment, I think some are viewing not only the tragedy, but also the country & perhaps think that the Japanese government can handle it all.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I hate to think that we care more about telegenic tragedies like this earthquake/tsunami than about the millions who die each year due to water-borne illness.

This is a tragedy, but these things happen. I think the Japanese have, on the whole, managed it pretty well. Hopefully they manage to get these reactors cooled down over the next few days. Thus far, they are more a risk than an actual issue. There is no evidence of any large-scale significant radiological effects as a result of the damage to these reactors. It could happen--but there's a good chance that they will resolve the problem successfully.

In the aftermath, we're going to have to do some review of disaster preparedness at other reactors, especially those in areas prone to tsunami and other causes that can wipe out redundant power systems. That was the real disaster. If they backup systems had not been destroyed by the tsunami, these plants could have shut down much more gracefully.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

andrewf said:


> This is a tragedy, but these things happen. I think the Japanese have, on the whole, managed it pretty well.


Agreed, I'd say they've managed this much better than the US managed hurricane Katrina and its aftermath.
I have a great deal of respect for the Japanese people and culture (even learnt a little language on the side during university).
I'm convinced they'll come out of this stronger as a society.

I'm more circumspect on the economy though.
They may experience a bounce during the next couple of years as a result of the re-building but I doubt it'll change their long term fundamentals.
That economy has essentially attained the pinnacle of capitalism and is now plateaued.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I don't think that the world, as we know it, is coming to an end as some on this thread would believe. I even hear that life in much of Japan is more or less normal other than the disruption to transportation services and some shortages of supplies in certain areas. For example, the industrial south below Tokyo was unaffected by the earthquake and tidal wave as was the entire west coast and the extreme north. Only a strip of agricultural and fishing area along the northeast coast was most seriously impacted and, if you lived in that area, it must seem like the end of the world or at least life as you knew it.

I think that, with all of the recent tragedies, that the folks just have doner fatigue.

I do note however, that there have been serious earthquakes lately at different parts of the so-called 'Ring of Fire'--Japan, New Zealand, Chile--but not yet the western coast of North America. Oh, oh!!!


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

> I do note however, that there have been serious earthquakes lately at different parts of the so-called 'Ring of Fire'--Japan, New Zealand, Chile--but not yet the western coast of North America. Oh, oh!!!


 we have been lucky and everyone else has not .. our day is dawning i guess .. our last big one was january 26, 1700 2100 PST and it hit japan with tsunami waves which is how we know the exact date ... i wish mother nature would get it over with so i can relax


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

The very worst outcome, and i am surprised this has not been picked up in the media since the radiation is all but confirmed, the return of GODZILLA!!!!


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

er, what do you mean "these things happen."

like, chernobyl, challenger, 9/11, fukushima, ho-hum-what's-for-lunch ??

re radiation sickness, some of the dai-ichi technicians are sick already. What i've read (in the past) means that they will die soon. Perhaps that's merciful.

radiation sickness in lesser doses (i've read in the past) manifests itself through elevated presence of various cancers & other serious health disorders over many years & decades to come. I'd be willing to bet that some respected research institutes are still doing epidemiological studies on health profiles of adults who were born to women pregnant during hiroshima & nagasake, or who were born in the 2-5 years following.

& why this babble about "get these reactors cooled down over the next few days" & they (the japanese) "will resolve the problem successfully."

it's babble. Latest news this pm in north america is that:

- 2 reactors w cracked fuel vessels are undergoing meltdowns that US authorities say are full meltdowns;
- all 8 reactors in the complex, together with their even more dangerous spent fuel pools, are now at risk because workers can not work or deploy water any longer due to severely high & rising radioactivity;
- the US is warning americans out of a vastly wider zone;
- china is airlifting more than 20,000 chinese out of japan;
- the US is said to be considering sending aircraft for evacuation purposes.

just another lamentable bad-hair day.
ho-hum.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Even if true, it will have little effect on me here in Toronto.

There is some hysteria out there. Perhaps some people are too sanguine. I expect the truth to be, as usual, somewhere in between.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

the question was not about what effect the week's events will have upon you personally, wherever you are.

the question was why are you babbling about (the japanese will) "get these reactors cooled down over the next few days" & they (the japanese) "will resolve the problem successfully."

today's actual, real news is the exact opposite.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

postscript: however, the very best buffoonery by far in this forum went like this:

yesterday:

_" I think that this crisis in Japan will be largely behind us by the weekend."_

today:

_" life in japan is more or less normal."_


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Quote: "The world is ending. The world is ending."----Chicken Little


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Well, let's reflect on this in a month. I don't see any point in arguing under uncertainty.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

look outside the sky is falling (again) !!!


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

There is an enormous difference between a atomic bomb and a nuclear meltdown. 

People are very ill informed about the differences between the two. 

An atomic bomb is created by surrounding refined radioactive material and surrounding it with shaped charges which compresses the atoms which releases the nuclear forces of the atom 

A nuclear reactor is just a big fancy boiler which uses radioactive material to heat coolant which goes through a heat exchanger which turns water to steam which is used to power a turbine to make electricity. Other sources of fuel which could be used for the same purpose are wood, chipped tires, coal and other stuff that burns. 

In this case the radioactive material does not explode... it melts because of the immense heat created which will contaminate the environment in the local area, the water table and so forth. It is not good. 

37 People died at Chernobyl from direct exposure to radiation, yet 150,000 to 200,000 died as a result of the atomic bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasake. 

So far the death toll from the earthquake and the tsunami will far outweigh the deaths from radiation at the nuclear power plants. 

For the morbidly interested there are three causes of death from nuclear materials, by burning because of the heat and radiation, by cellular death specifically the cells that digest food in your small intestine and the cells in your bone marrow then long term health effects such as cancer. 

But Rachelle there have been explosions what are you talking about? Yes my child, but those are hydrogen explosions. When the fuel rods are exposed to air they create hydrogen which must be released from the containment vessel, because the air is in contact with the nuclear rods it does get contaminated but this is far from the "mushroom" cloud nuclear blast, it's just a regular chemical explosion with a little extra something something  

Now the radioactive materials themselves are dangerous but so are many many chemicals commonly used in industrial applications. This nuclear disaster should not be taken lightly but it is similar in severity to an industrial accident such as the oil spill we had in the Gulf earlier this year with the Gulf incident probably being worse because nuclear incidents tend to be very local to the site they occur in. This is because the nature of nuclear materials being very heavy metals and not flying around very well, the more toxic materials that have the the longest half life are the heaviest ones while the materials such as iodine isotopes are lighter but also have a much shorter half life. 8 days or so if I recall properly. Cesium and Strontium are have a half life of about 30 years. 

I also want to point out that at the Chernobyl site there were a few reactors one of which was decommissioned only several years ago. So in spite of the severity of that nuclear accident, people continued to work at the same site for years and years. 

As Douglas Adams said "Don't Panic"


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

^^^^ Very good post!

MIT Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering maintains a blog that offers level-headed coverage of the situation.

http://mitnse.com/


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I don't know very much about nuclear power and I am very thankful we don't have any plants in BC. 

I think every so often mother nature sends everyone a message that this power needs to be respected and we shouldn't get complacent about it. I have read like Humble Pie highlighted others saying how simple and safe this should be and instead is a lot more dangerous and out of control then everyone has thought. Bottom line is always be on guard for the worst because anything can happen, a lesson to everyone this forum needs to learn and it applies to investing as well.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I don't think people can be faulted for being fearful, when some experts have said that this event is beyond the scope of what even the experts know.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

> Four hundred times more radioactive material was released in Pripyat than had been by the atomic bombing in Hiroshima.


While the atomic bomb killed 150,000 in Hiroshima, the modern day hydrogen bomb could be 1000 times as powerful. Still, the radioactive fallout of a nuclear meltdown is far more long term and widespread than a nuclear bomb. Radiation can damage DNA forever, in ways we will never know. The oil spill may have killed animals, but it didn't manipulate their future DNA forever!

It's all a matter of time, distance and shielding and I imagine it will be a lifetime before Fukushima is inhabitable again. Hiroshima was inhabitable after a few months. I work next to high EM energy and we monitor the level of radiation. I would walk through the city of Pripyat today in jeans but I wouldn't chose to live there. I would not hang out in Fukushima today, just like I don't stick my head in the microwave at home.

The impact zone in Hiroshima is still blocked off today within 100 meters or so. Fukushima will be blocked off for miles, but that won't stop animals and plants from living there. They say Chernobyl could leave the longest standing impact from our time

As far as Japan's economy, I think it will come out fine if not better from this.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

mode3sour said:


> I would walk through the city of Pripyat today in jeans but I wouldn't chose to live there.


Sure? There are videos of Pripyat on youtube and today, the radiation levels are still very high. 

They said it would not return to normal levels for at least 300 years.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

re mitnse this is *NOT* an official MIT website.

it's an unsigned jerry-built blog allegedly maintained by anonymous "students" at MIT.

it was thrown together only four (4) days ago and grew out of a blog posting by a scientist or pseudo-scientist who is not affiliated with MIT in any way. The scientist or pseudo-scientist wrote that he was not worried about fukushima.

interestingly, this fake "MIT" blog appears to have been subventioned (ie paid for) in part by the Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan. This surprised me, because i would have bet good money that the sponsoring agency for this rubbish blog is the nuclear industry.

blog includes volumes of regurgitated commentaries & reports from japanese government officials such as yukio edano and from officials at tepco.

without exception, we've already read all of these official commentaries. Without exception, these commentaries seek to whitewash or downplay the situation at fukushima. 

all of these commentaries have been vigorously & openly challenged by US nuclear regulatory authorities led by chairman Gregory Jazcko.

in a rare diplomacy-breaking move obviously sanctioned by the white house, Jazcko yesterday spoke out after extensive US data-gathering & flight overview missions were carried out during the past several days.

the US findings are that - in a nutshell - radiation levels are close to twice what the japanese are admitting and the situation is far more dangerous than the official tepco pablum. The US has doubled the prohibited radius around fukushima & has begun removing its armed forces dependents from northern japan.

this fake "MIT" website presents anonymous "reports" that are faded & dated, typically 24 hours later than the excellent, impartial & extensive coverage being provided by the ny times.

"MIT" is re-publishing a few charts & graphs directly from the ny times. However, the blog is such an amateur job that the anonymous bloggers don't seem to have bothered themselves over copyright restrictions.

website provides other redundant material on radiation that could have been taken from many public domain sources such as wikipedia, etc.

this is a public relations blog attempting to ride like a parasite on a renowned US scientific name. Just one of the darker pumping aspects of the internet.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Jungle said:


> Sure? There are videos of Pripyat on youtube and today, the radiation levels are still very high.
> 
> They said it would not return to normal levels for at least 300 years.


Actually I plan to go visit it. I like to visit abandoned bases and towns. Perfectly safe if you don't eat anything from there or stay very long

Time/Distance/Shielding. The equipment I work with puts out a ridiculous amount of radiation, but it drops exponentially with distance.

It's a long term risk that requires long term exposure


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

humble, do you have a source for that subventioning info on mit:nse?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

ddkay said:


> humble, do you have a source for that subventioning info on mit:nse?


Here is an initial debunking from Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture from yesterday.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

hello ddkay,

exceptionally complicated story & not all of it has come out yet, by any means.

the epicentre is one josef oehman, who represented himself as an MIT research scientist, and whose father works prominently in the nuclear industry in germany, and who wrote a blog post on march 13/11 that declared:

*" There was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity [from fukushima].*"

" By “significant” I mean a level of radiation of more than what you would receive on – say – a long distance flight, or drinking a glass of beer that comes from certain areas with high levels of natural background radiation," oehmen wrote.

http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/...s-nuclear-reactors-from-mits-dr-josef-oehmen/

oehman's blogpost promptly went viral & flew around the world in several languages, winding up on Cramer's business TV show and on siemens' german public relations website.

within hours oehman was outed. He turned out to be, not a nuclear scientist, but an MIT researcher working in a business management division of one of the MIT faculties. His sole connection to atomic science is through his father & possibly his father's industry contacts.

however, the fukushima-is-not-happening band played on & morphed into Gen2, which is the "students" webblog from MIT.

it's stuffed full of more warning red flags than a toreador's cupboard. I look at 100s of corporate websites (investing point of view) & always the fakes stand out & screech about themselves within minutes.

on mitnse the instant giveaway is absence of any names or signers of articles, absence of "about us," etc. No serious website ever does this. 

another red flag is the proliferation of long pompous texts taken verbatim from various mouthpieces for the fukushima-is-not-happening school, in particular from japanese officials and tepco & federation officials. Many of these statements have been discredited by now.

below is another website w some of this story. You'll turn up many more if you have a moment to google josef oehmen.

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/03/15/josef_oehmen_nuclear_not_worried_viral/

clearly, there is a faction among the students at MIT that is pro-nuclear, and this faction is attempting in an amateurish way to carry the oehman message. But this is not the formal position of the prestigious university as a whole, including its chancellors, rectors, president & governors; and imho it is preposterous to pretend such a thing.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

humble_pie,

Here's the official MIT home page:

http://web.mit.edu/

Right there on the official home page, there is a link called "Institute rallies to inform public and gather aid for victims of natural disaster". It points here:

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/japan-events-donations.html

Note the same domain name.

Look on the right side of the page. See the link called "Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering blog on the nuclear crisis"?

The link points to:

http://mitnse.com/

How you can argue that mitnse is "fake" is beyond me. It is hosted by MIT. It is linked from the official MIT page. It is maintained by (yes, anonymous) MIT students.

Yes, the first post ("Why I am not worried...") was written by a guy not affiliated with MIT. mitnse fully disclosed it. The guy is a scientist, but not a nuclear scientist. With the passage of 4 days, it is now obvious that the guy was outright wrong. 

The rest of the blog posts were written by MIT students. Most of those posts deal with nuclear science 101. I found them rather informative.

That's as far as I will go in arguing this argument.

Lastly, I agree with you that NYTimes coverage has been excellent.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ash/article1945640/singlepage/#articlecontent

Any thoughts or comments?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

morning goldstone,

it looks like a question of semantics.

the mitnse website is not any kind of official website representing the deans, faculty, governors, president, chancellor or administration of the prestigious massachusetts institute of technology.

it is, instead, an unsigned jerry-built mishmash from a small nameless pro-nuclear student faction, built upon a tainted article by a disgraced author, that was forced onto the mit server less than 5 days ago.

campus politics being as riven & passionate as they are, one would imagine that its days on the mit server would be numbered. MIT is a leader among a powerful handful of the most august & important science research institutes on the planet. It's difficult to see how it would continue to allow its image to be tarnished with a shabby little blot like mitnse.

in that sense i'd call the website fake, but one could certainly call it by other terms if you wish.

Q: since you also favour the excellent & up-to-the-minute ny times coverage of fukushima, as i do, and since this coverage is so extensive as to amount to a small book being published every single day, how can you find the time to read 48-hour-old 5th-hand amateurism on mitnse. I for one certainy don't have the time ...


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## Beleriand (Jan 31, 2011)

After this catastrophe EU want to control every nuclear station in Europe. These people are very crazy from Brussels. I am not a quite convinced that this pseudo-discussions about the safety of nuclear stations will be positive for every european economics.


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