# Please help me fix my portfolio



## depassp

Please help me fix my portfolio that I started building in February 2019. It's currently overall -38%.

In hindsight, I would now be in a better position had I just been "boring" and invested in a suite of index funds. My personality causes me to try to optimize everything and at the time I really couldn't sit with the idea of being in a boring index fund.

Hindsight 20/20 and all, how do I get myself out of this mess?

I have already started cutting most of my winners/small losers and going to cash, preparing for what I predict will be another future crash. A big part of me doesn't want to put any more money into the market until well after the US elections. At that time I plan to enter back in the market but this time with index funds.

I can't bring myself to cut the rest of these fairly larger losers. How should I approach this? Just suck it up and rip off the band-aid? Or hold on for the ride and hope at least some of them recover? Something else? Thoughts?


Ticker (TSE)Industry/SectorOriginal Investment ThesisAllocation of Portfolio ACB (%)Current Unrealized Profit/Loss (As of Sep18, 2020)PZAConsumer Staples/RetailStrong company with history of consistent dividend payouts43.62%-11.75%VETEnergy/Oil&GasVery high dividend yield. Canadian company (eligible dividends) but smaller exposure to hurting Canadian oil patch. They have exposure to Brent crude.27.37%-81.81%IPLEnergy/PipelinesHigh dividend8.7%-33.32%BKFinancials/Asset ManagementSeemed like an easy way to get exposure to 6 Canadian banks with a high dividend yield6.37%-34.33%DFNFinancials/Asset ManagementExposure to more high quality Canadian dividend payers4.61%-27.5%AFNIndustrials/MachineryNeeded to diversify portfolio which at the time was almost exclusively energy+financials4.45%-28.71%CGXConsumer Discretionary/EntertainmentI like the high dividend yield and believe in the business.4.87%-65.59%

Total portfolio ACB is $96,595.24 (current market value $59,508.74)


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## Pluto

I recall, way way back when, I had some losers. One book I read said to look at your losers as tuition paid for a learning experience. that was an encouraging way to look at the situation. Another book I read said don't buy stocks that are going down, buy stocks that are going up. So I searched for a stock that had momentum. When I found it, I sold all my losers and put the proceeds into that one stock. It doubled in the next three months. wow. A scary drama that turned a losing situation into profit. 

I no longer hang onto losers, wishing and and hoping like I used to. What do index's do when they replace a stock with another? They get rid of their worst stock, and replace it with an up and comer. That's one reason why index etf's do OK. The don't sell their winners. 

You seem to be afflicted, as I was at one point, with requiring a profit on every stock thereby selling winners and keeping losers. I have long suspected that is a mistake.


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## AltaRed

Index ETFs follow the index. A holding drops out when the stock drops out of the index and a new holding comes in when the new stock becomes part of the index. That is the beauty of a passive index ETF.


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## Jimmy

They should all recover w time.

One thing I learned is you don't have to make the $ back the same way they declined. Some industries like airlines and cinemas will take much longer to recover than others. So you may want to swap CGX for a general ETF like BMO global consumer Discretionary DISC .


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## james4beach

depassp said:


> Please help me fix my portfolio that I started building in February 2019. It's currently overall -38%.
> 
> In hindsight, I would now be in a better position had I just been "boring" and invested in a suite of index funds. My personality causes me to try to optimize everything and at the time I really couldn't sit with the idea of being in a boring index fund.
> 
> Hindsight 20/20 and all, how do I get myself out of this mess?


I'm sorry to hear about your situation, and it's a tough scenario to find yourself in. Stocks which decline do not necessarily bounce back, even if you wait forever. Unfortunately this is one of the scary things about stocks ... they offer no guarantees whatsoever.

*IDEA #1*

One question I suggest thinking about is whether picking individual stocks is working out for you. I don't know your history here. Maybe you did stock-picking in the past with better results and maybe you're just going through a temporary bad patch. But picking stocks is hard. So I suggest thinking about deciding whether you want to continue stock-picking, or go with indexing instead. This will guide the next step.

IF you decide you want to switch to indexing:

At this point you could plan your index portfolio and start building it. If I was in your situation, I would dump most of the stocks and use that money to buy the index positions (XIC, XAW, etc) as per your plan. After reviewing your stocks, the only ones I would keep are PZA and DFN --- just my opinion of course. I would sell everything else and rotate into ETFs.

Then over time, you could exit those final two positions and complete the transition to indexing.

IF you decide you're going to continue picking stocks:

Figure out a methodology. Stock picking requires portfolio management. You really can't just buy a bunch of positions and hold them forever, or ignore what happens to them. All stock portfolios require continuous re-evaluation and adjustments. It's what every portfolio manager does, whether it's a mutual fund, hedge fund, or even the index.

If continuing with stock picking, I think you should figure out and write down your rules for your portfolio management. Then, trying to be as non emotional as possible, apply those rules to your portfolio, and see where it takes you.

A quick piece of advice I'll share is that the 200 day moving average is a useful thing to look at. Good stocks tend to stay above their 200 day moving average, or don't drop very far below it. Bad stocks (ones with no future) tend to spend most of their time below the 200 day average and have trouble ever getting above it.

*IDEA #2*

Let's say you plan to continue picking individual stocks. Fair enough, and maybe you can turn the portfolio around. But I then suggest taking some money and simultaneously investing it into an all-in-one portfolio ETF such as XBAL or VGRO.

Then, over time, track and compare the two. See how your own portfolio of stocks is shaping up and keep an eye on the XBAL/VGRO alternative.

This gives you a way to test out and see which is working better. Over time, you can shift money (or add new money) into whichever one seems better. This alleviates the burden of making all-or-none decisions but gives you choices and options. You can actually see which is doing better, with time.


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## james4beach

depassp said:


> ... going to cash, preparing for what I predict will be another future crash. A big part of me doesn't want to put any more money into the market until well after the US elections. At that time I plan to enter back in the market but this time with index funds.


Curious if this equity portfolio is part of a larger investment portfolio, one which includes bonds or fixed income?

I ask because you are showing that you're pretty nervous about equities, but this is a 100% equity portfolio. A person who is nervous about equity markets shouldn't be in 100% equities. Maybe part of the solution should be to switch to a more diversified asset allocation which is not entirely in stocks. Then, you wouldn't be as concerned about what happens to the stock market.

Have you considered investing in a mix such as 50% stocks 50% bonds (or GICs)?

The stock market is always a scary place. If it's not one thing, it's another. Today it's COVID. Tomorrow it will be US elections. Next it will be the fallout from US elections, or god knows what. We can't even foresee what the next crazy thing will be, but there's always something that makes stocks seem dangerous.

Going with a 50/50 allocation takes away some of the stress. It will also help you stay invested all the time, instead of trying to time the market by getting out, and then back in.


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## Topo

depassp said:


> In hindsight, I would now be in a better position had I just been "boring" and invested in a suite of index funds. My personality causes me to try to optimize everything and at the time I really couldn't sit with the idea of being in a boring index fund.
> 
> Hindsight 20/20 and all, how do I get myself out of this mess?


You will enormously benefit from a one stop asset allocation ETF such as XGRO or VBAL. It is not that you didn't get lucky with stocks such as CGX, but your portfolio is not diversified at all and some holdings such as DFN are leveraged and concentrated sector bets. 

The best course of action you could take is swallow the loss, start anew with an asset allocation ETF, and stick through it for the long run.


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## james4beach

Topo said:


> You will enormously benefit from a one stop asset allocation ETF such as XGRO or VBAL. It is not that you didn't get lucky with stocks such as CGX, but your portfolio is not diversified at all and some holdings such as DFN are leveraged and concentrated sector bets.
> 
> The best course of action you could take is swallow the loss, start anew with an asset allocation ETF, and stick through it for the long run.


I completely agree with Topo, but there's another angle to this. Many people (myself included) are tempted to tinker with and play with investments.

The way I have addressed this is by separating a small amount of my total portfolio for the tinkering and stock picking. I'm roughly 90% in passive indexing and 10% in "active strategies" which includes things like growth stock picks and market timing. By letting myself do this with a small amount of my total, it helps get it out of my system.

Similarly @depassp might want to try mainly use VBAL and keep a small amount of money in a separate portfolio for active management.


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## Topo

james4beach said:


> I completely agree with Topo, but there's another angle to this. Many people (myself included) are tempted to tinker with and play with investments.
> 
> The way I have addressed this is by separating a small amount of my total portfolio for the tinkering and stock picking. I'm roughly 90% in passive indexing and 10% in "active strategies" which includes things like growth stock picks and market timing. By letting myself do this with a small amount of my total, it helps get it out of my system.
> 
> Similarly @depassp might want to try mainly use VBAL and keep a small amount of money in a separate portfolio for active management.


Absolutely. For most people, that would be great advice. But for OP in particular, I would suggest a period of "total abstinence" that could last until they break-even and have done more research into portfolio construction and investments in general. 

I say this partly because there is a danger in being successful in a side portfolio too. Making a few good bets (eg. + 20% in two days on TSLA) could lead to overconfidence, creating more problems down the road.


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## Pluto

AltaRed said:


> Index ETFs follow the index. A holding drops out when the stock drops out of the index and a new holding comes in when the new stock becomes part of the index. That is the beauty of a passive index ETF.


True. The main point was indexes, and of course index etfs, don't get rid of their best ones, they replace their worst ones with better ones. Secondarily, people who have a portfolio of stocks will do better if they do the same.


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## depassp

AltaRed said:


> Index ETFs follow the index. A holding drops out when the stock drops out of the index and a new holding comes in when the new stock becomes part of the index. That is the beauty of a passive index ETF.


Who controls/what decides when a particular stock gets removed from the index?



james4beach said:


> Curious if this equity portfolio is part of a larger investment portfolio, one which includes bonds or fixed income?


For some background: I have a reliable and fairly generous defined-benefit pension plan (the Public Service Pension Plan) which I plan to treat as my "fixed income" in retirement.

I know this is not quite a fair comparison as having a true fixed income portion of the portfolio (which allows me to rebalance and sell bonds/buy equities when the opportunity presents).

This investment portfolio is intended to be "icing on the cake" in retirement. My investment timeline is 15-20 years out so I planned for it this be all-equities and leveraged, using the Smith Maneuvre.

My initial thesis was to choose a tax-efficient list of Canadian high-yield dividend stocks and use the extra income stream to pay down the mortgage, re-borrow on the HELOC side and continue to invest and grow the portfolio.

I wasn't prepared to see the entire portfolio crash so hard and almost all the dividend streams just stop. This has made me reconsider.



james4beach said:


> *IDEA #2*
> 
> Let's say you plan to continue picking individual stocks. Fair enough, and maybe you can turn the portfolio around. But I then suggest taking some money and simultaneously investing it into an all-in-one portfolio ETF such as XBAL or VGRO.
> 
> Then, over time, track and compare the two. See how your own portfolio of stocks is shaping up and keep an eye on the XBAL/VGRO alternative.
> 
> This gives you a way to test out and see which is working better. Over time, you can shift money (or add new money) into whichever one seems better. This alleviates the burden of making all-or-none decisions but gives you choices and options. You can actually see which is doing better, with time.


I've kind of done this, backward-looking. For every individual stock I picked, if I had instead dumped that capital into VEQT (at the price at the time of the individual stock purchase), today my portfolio would be +8.75%.

I do enjoy the process of stock-picking but I don't enjoy watching my portfolio value plummet. I fear I may not have the stock-picking skills to do it properly. I do want to try to slowly turn the portfolio around ideally while minimizing unnecessary losses. I do plan to add an all-equities ETF like VEQT/XEQT. I'm already over-exposed to Canada so perhaps I'll just split it out and buy XUU/XAW.

I'm fighting a second issue which is "timing the market". I don't think COVID is done wreaking its havoc on our markets. I hope to buy XEQT on the next 30% drop, or if that doesn't happen then scale in after the US election (January 2021).

Thank you all for your help and ideas.


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## james4beach

depassp said:


> Who controls/what decides when a particular stock gets removed from the index?


For the S&P 500 and TSX Composite, it's the S&P committee (a group of people) who decide this on a regular basis.


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## AltaRed

depassp said:


> Who controls/what decides when a particular stock gets removed from the index?


The index providers, e.g. MSCI, FTSE, S&P, according to established criteria. The 'team' of each has varying degrees of flexibility in choosing when and what, but most telegraph changes ahead of time to allow for the transitions index funds and ETFs need to make to follow the changes.


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## MarcoE

You learned something. That's valuable. I hope the cost wasn't too high (not sure what size portfolio we're talking about). If I were you, I'd cut my losses and switch to indexing. Personally, I just have two ETFs for stocks: XIC (Canada) and XAW (everything outside of Canada). Keeps it nice and simple for me. And I'd add some bonds (and maybe gold) to smooth the ride. This isn't advice, and I'm not an expert. This is simply what I would personally do in your situation. Listen to everyone and decide what's best for you.


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## spiritwalker2222

If your plan is to go into etf's, do it now.


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## hfp75

In all honesty, there is some great information here. I think that picking single stocks is risky and requires real attention to detail, a lot of focus & last but not least experience. I have very little of these things. I will also mention, you (& me) will be the last to know when it is time to sell a holding due to markets moving against it. Large multi-billion dollar funds move quickly and can liquidate unfathomable volumes of a position before you and me at work will ever know. 

No offense intended but you are a little guy! Call a spade a spade and acknowledge that - once you do you will be better off.

Investing comes with a bunch of pitfalls and traps. Overall the guys and gals here have been giving good advise to me and others (you).

There are a few things to wrap your head around. Fist is portfolio construction and the reasons for the different portfolios (allocation differences) !!!!! I woulds start by doing a bunch of research on portfolio construction. Next, acknowledge that you are a small investor. Dont buy single stocks, but bunches of them cheaply - ETFs are they way to go, If you want to use Mutual Funds that also is safer than single stocks. I dont mind mutual funds but alot of MFs are active and ETFs are passive. Over time ETFs (passive / indexing) wins. Active managers are again humans and make bad calls.

1-Portfolio construction
2-ETFs vs Mutual Funds
3-Diversify !
4-Feel free to post your progress. There are some committed investors here that can give good feedback. Dont be shy ! This is how you learn....
5-Read in this Forum - Investing. There is good info in here.
6-Be cautious but not scared.

(* If you are gonna use MFs I would look into Mawer)


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## depassp

spiritwalker2222 said:


> If your plan is to go into etf's, do it now.


Why now?



hfp75 said:


> Large multi-billion dollar funds move quickly and can liquidate unfathomable volumes of a position before you and me at work will ever know.


Yes, this is one of my big mistakes. I really should have set a trailing stop and kept the losses small and more manageable. I fell into the "buy and hold(pray)" forever mindset.



hfp75 said:


> No offense intended but you are a little guy! Call a spade a spade and acknowledge that - once you do you will be better off.


I'm well aware of this but don't see much why it should matter. If a particular stock has momentum and is moving, why shouldn't I be able to "ride the wave" along with the big players?


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## cainvest

MarcoE said:


> I hope the cost wasn't too high (not sure what size portfolio we're talking about).


Good point .. if it's a small amount (just starting out in investing) I'd likely just ride it out and make corrections on next years investment purchases.


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## depassp

@MarcoE @cainvest 
How would you define "small"?

This portfolio ACB is $96,595.24 (current market value $59,508.74)


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## Pluto

The issue of individual stocks vs etf's isn't a black and white, all or non issue. One could have, say, 90 % in an etf or two, and the rest for a growth stock or two. There is a learning curve and allocating a small % to stock picks when one is starting out seems prudent. 

I'm an incorrigible individual stock picker, as I have seen and benefited from the significant gains to be had from one or two really good growth stocks in a portfolio.


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## Pluto

depassp said:


> I'm well aware of this but don't see much why it should matter. If a particular stock has momentum and is moving, why shouldn't I be able to "ride the wave" along with the big players?


Precisely. Why not? 
If one can persevere during the learning curve phase, it will eventually be very profitable.


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## AltaRed

One usually only knows in hindsight which momentum stocks are winners. There are Nortels and Worldcoms to go along with Shopifys and Zooms. Stock pickers, even professional money manages with teams of analysts and research teams, generally don't have much better than a 50-60% success factor. Why would a rank amateur retail investor do any better? One has to know when to get off the train and that is the hardest thing for most stock pickers to do.


> If one can persevere during the learning curve phase, it will eventually be very profitable.


 Nothing is guaranteed that it will eventually be very profitable. There is more luck than skill by those who have winners to brag about.

In aggregate, stock pickers are the market less costs on a long term basis. Everyone can win, relative to the market, for short periods of time based on a particular investing strategy and/or pure luck and/or acumen and skill, but for every winner, there is a loser.

I stock pick Canada, but ETF everything ex-Canada. Most of my Canadian stocks have been 'winners' but over the long term of 20 years or so, I doubt I have beat the TSX. For example, I have done better than the TSX over the past 10 years by staying out of commodity stocks, but I have also missed winners like Shopify because it has no fundamentals behind it in valuations. I probably could have stuck with XIU ETF over the last 20 years and done just as well.

The best time to make a change in investing strategy is the current time. If the OP's losses are in a taxable account, those cap gain losses can be carried forward indefinitely...to be used later to offset future cap gains. The OP needs to have an IPS (Investment Policy Statement) to set down the basic parameters of the end goals and objectives of an investment plan, investing style, high level investment strategy, and the things which are not to be considered given one's temperament and personality, etc, etc. There are many template versions of IPS available. The portfolio articulated in post #1 suggests the OP has/had no real plan in place before making investing decisions. It seems to have been a serious of impulsive choices at the time.


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## cainvest

depassp said:


> @MarcoE @cainvest
> How would you define "small"?
> 
> This portfolio ACB is $96,595.24 (current market value $59,508.74)


Starting investing Feb 2019 could mean many different amounts for different people, so you're averaging almost $50k a year. Are you planning to continue with around $50k each year? With a 15-20 year horizon and very uncertain returns coming in the next year or two I'd likely wait it out, maybe sell off a few if they do a big short term rise. Of course the question is, would selling off at a loss and picking alternative investments provide better returns than holding out to see how the economy (and your picks) will recover.


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## Pluto

AltaRed said:


> There is more luck than skill by those who have winners to brag about.


I don't place a lot of weight on the luck theory. I think its a myth that unfortunately dampens motivation to learn. 
Rebuttals to the luck theory have been written and published, but the luck theorists, primarily the professor and author of a Random Walk down Wall Street, didn't reply. This is an example of 'Those that can't do, teach'. They have no reply, so they fell silent.

Lynch, for example, clearly articulated why an individual has an advantage over professionals. The knowledge is there for the taking. Attached is an image of an individual stock picker vs S&P index. And speaking of the index, it is managed too. The index isn't passive, it is actively managed. So why does it go up if active management is so bad?


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## AltaRed

It is easy to data mine and it is laughable to use Berkshire as an example. I acknowledge a good retail investor can be nimble and quick where an institutional money manager cannot, and that is clearly an advantage. But that same retail investor does not have the resources to put enough effort into stock picking unless they are spending hundreds of hours every year stock picking. Filters and screens can narrow choices but that simply reduces the universe to pick from. It still comes down to financials, ratios and one's crystal ball of the future.

A number of credible investors from Buffett to Bogle have said the retail investor would be better off in an S&P500 index than stock picking and I believe that is definitely true for at least 90% of retail investors. There is a small percentage of individuals that can outperfom but that is known only in hindsight over long periods of time. It is true even with certain indices. Those currently on the Nasdaq QQQ gravy train really don't know when to get off. It's a speculative bet to stay. It may work out fine long term, or it may pay to get off that train soon.

Stock pick all you like. It is not the place for the typical retail investor, at least not for the entirety of the portfolio. One post upthread suggested perhaps 90% in broad based (not boutique) ETFs and 10% stock portfolio play money. That is one option for those itching to release their testosterone and/or test stock picking skills. Make it 80/20 or 50/50 if one likes, but have a strategy/reason for doing so.... and put that in one's IPS with a rationale for doing so. An investor has to know why they are doing what they are doing, and for what end purpose. Otherwise they will never know when and if they have arrived.


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## depassp

AltaRed said:


> If the OP's losses are in a taxable account, those cap gain losses can be carried forward indefinitely...to be used later to offset future cap gains.


Indeed this portfolio is in my taxable account as it's for my Smith Maneuvre. Is taking cap losses really the best course of action, though? I already have ~$5k of losses this year (from trimming back the portfolio).

Another problem is that if I take the big losses now, I'll have to pay down my line of credit, eating more of my current cash which I'm keeping on hand to deploy in my wife (lower earner)'s SRRSP and/or my TFSA on the next market downswing.



AltaRed said:


> have a strategy/reason for doing so.... and put that in one's IPS with a rationale for doing so. An investor has to know why they are doing what they are doing, and for what end purpose. Otherwise they will never know when and if they have arrived.


I had a purpose and plan just not in an explicit IPS. I listed my investment thesis for each of my picks in the original post. I just wasn't emotionally/mentally prepared for the chaos that happened this year. The massive dividend cuts just pierced a dagger right through most of my theses.

As I said, the posted portfolio is already after a lot of trimming. I now have about $85k of "dry powder" (room in the LOC) that I'm waiting to deploy.


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## Topo

No investor should be putting 71% of their portfolio in any two stocks, even ones as solid as AAPL and RY, let alone PZA and VET. Such a portfolio was destined to fail, sooner or later.


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## AltaRed

depassp said:


> Indeed this portfolio is in my taxable account as it's for my Smith Maneuvre. Is taking cap losses really the best course of action, though? I already have ~$5k of losses this year (from trimming back the portfolio).
> 
> Another problem is that if I take the big losses now, I'll have to pay down my line of credit, eating more of my current cash which I'm keeping on hand to deploy in my wife (lower earner)'s SRRSP and/or my TFSA on the next market downswing.
> 
> 
> 
> I had a purpose and plan just not in an explicit IPS. I listed my investment thesis for each of my picks in the original post. I just wasn't emotionally/mentally prepared for the chaos that happened this year. The massive dividend cuts just pierced a dagger right through most of my theses.
> 
> As I said, the posted portfolio is already after a lot of trimming. I now have about $85k of "dry powder" (room in the LOC) that I'm waiting to deploy.


I was thinking that if you sold those holdings now and took the proceeds immediately and re-invested in 1-2 new ETFs, that wouldn't change anything with respect to the value of your portfolio, i.e. you are staying invested with actual portfolio value unchanged. However, if it impacts your LOC balance and/or ability to write off interest costs, then yes, that is a factor I had not considered.

The key common 'theme' I picked up from your holdings in post #1 was high yield (dividend payout) but I am not sure, if you are a long term investor, why you would do that? And what risks would you prepared to take if that is the case?. But yes, I agree that could be one of the premises in a written IPS, but if so, the objective of the portfolio would then be income investing, rather than growth investing, or value investing, or dividend growth investing, or performance return investing. IOW, not caring about share price appreciation, only about investment income.

The flaw that bit you hard was to pick high yield stocks and those come with a lot of risk and red flags. Stocks with a high yield have some weak fundamentals, or flawed financials. Businesses without perceived growth, highly leveraged balance sheets, poor ROE, ROC, etc. When the poo hits the fan, they are hit hard as you have found out. I am only familiar with a few of those names, e.g VET and IPL and neither have hope of near term recovery back to 2019 price levels. Investors who play in this area are known as 'deep value' investors and a lot of work needs to be done via financials and investor presentations to make picks.Consider them speculative bets?

At this point, I think you have decided that passive broad based passive index investing may be where your temperament is best placed, at least for the time being. There is a lot worse than simply buying the S&P500 and/or the TSX Composite and/or the FTSE/MSCI European and Asian indices. They catch ALL of the investing themes without placing bets on any particular one. It has served me well on all of my ex-Canada portion of my portfolio.


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## james4beach

Topo said:


> No investor should be putting 71% of their portfolio in any two stocks, even ones as solid as AAPL and RY, let alone PZA and VET. Such a portfolio was destined to fail, sooner or later.


I made similar mistakes in my first shots at stock picking. I distinctly remember when I was heavily concentrated in just two sectors (tech and mining!) and saw nearly the whole thing wiped out in a sharp drawdown. I learned over time, and wrote a series of rules and checks to follow. Stock picking isn't impossible, but it's a lot of work. You have to manage individual stock concentration. There has to be sufficient diversification among individual stocks, but also among sectors. These days I still do stock picking but I have a whole page of rules and guidelines to follow.

Generally I would say it's not worth the effort, when you can just buy an index ETF. The index providers all use similar rules and guidelines to create good portfolios, and they also _manage_ their portfolios over years and decades. They are good at it.

Just buy XIC or XIU


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## james4beach

AltaRed said:


> have a strategy/reason for doing so.... and put that in one's IPS with a rationale for doing so. An investor has to know why they are doing what they are doing, and for what end purpose. Otherwise they will never know when and if they have arrived.


This is very important. Every investor needs a clear plan and strategy, and it should be written out on paper.

I remember hearing this put very nicely by someone. It was something to the effect of: "The market does an excellent job of transferring wealth from those who have no plan, to those who *do* have a plan."

Over the years I have discovered how important this is. Even if it means leaving everything in cash for the time being, I think it would be great to work on creating a plan or strategy before starting again. I'm sure many on this board would be happy to help look over and give feedback on a plan.

And the great thing is that many plans are viable. There is no single "right" way to do any of this... so there's lots of room for creativity and individual taste. But I strongly recommend building up, and then nailing down, a plan.

We've all gone through bad periods. Don't feel bad, this happens to everyone.


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## :) lonewolf

dpassp all the best players I know are independent thinkers & go against the herd ie., they all know COVID is a conjob unlike the sheeple. I will give you 3 strategies that are easy to follow & have beaten the pants off this market.

I do not think anyone else on this site has posted methods that are as good as the ones I will post below. Yet a lot of my posts get deleted Probably hold the record for number of posts deleted. because I speak up against CON JOB 19. The sheeple order followers trust in their dictators. 

Sell everything you hold now use a small amount of money to play each strategy

Method 1
seasonal cycle with Bitcoin & Ethereum

Buy Bitcoin Oct 18 Sell Dec 2,
Buy Ethereum Dec 6 sell March 8,
Buy Ethereum April 13 sell June 17

Repeat every year, From 2010 this method turned 1 dollar into $519,012 there were 17 wins & 3 loses Bitcoin trades started in 2010 in Ethereum trades started in 2015 Can use grayscale ETNs to play ( go to seasonax & type in Bitcoin & Ethereum to double check the numbers I came up with) Right now this info is free on their web site.

Method 2 This info can be found on internet for free

S&P trade using 3x leveraged ETF with 200 day moving average ( source google dow award leveraged for the long run)

From Oct 1929 through Oct 2015 average 5 trades a year annual return 26.8% verses 9.8% buy & hold strategy. Calculated with 1% mer for the leveraged trade

All you have to do is buy the S&P3 X leveraged fund when above the 200 day moving average & sell when below the 200 day moving average.



Method 3 ( source Arch Crawford site online resources David Mcmunn Crash of 2017) This info is free on inter net @ Crawfords site

Decennial Pattern which beat the market by 44.9 fold from 1900 till 2002 according to RW Millar 1 dollar invested in the S&P 500 buy & hold would be worth $ 148.41 verses $ 6,660.86

If one was out of the market on the start of the zero year & reentered the market on the beginning on June 30th of the second year. Then was out of the market from August through Oct of the 7th year


Using 3x leveraged ETF with the decennial pattern I do think would turbo charge the returns on the decennial method.

Small amount of money on table play several methods that beat the pants off the market incase 1 blows up. Use proper money management.


The Robinhood of Wall Street Greg Mannarino last name spelling ? has a website that is giving out free trades which has been killing the market. He is doing it to fight back the attack on the middle class by the Federal reserve & the billionaires with the bogus COVID. Greg is very very good & with proper money management using his trades US market you will kill the market I do not think you can lose with him. Trades sent right to your email


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## Topo

:) lonewolf said:


> dpassp all the best players I know are independent thinkers & go against the herd ie., they all know COVID is a conjob unlike the sheeple. I will give you 3 strategies that are easy to follow & have beaten the pants off this market.
> 
> I do not think anyone else on this site has posted methods that are as good as the ones I will post below. Yet a lot of my posts get deleted Probably hold the record for number of posts deleted. because I speak up against CON JOB 19. The sheeple order followers trust in their dictators.
> 
> Sell everything you hold now use a small amount of money to play each strategy
> 
> Method 1
> seasonal cycle with Bitcoin & Ethereum
> 
> Buy Bitcoin Oct 18 Sell Dec 2,
> Buy Ethereum Dec 6 sell March 8,
> Buy Ethereum April 13 sell June 17
> 
> Repeat every year, From 2010 this method turned 1 dollar into $519,012 there were 17 wins & 3 loses Bitcoin trades started in 2010 in Ethereum trades started in 2015 Can use grayscale ETNs to play ( go to seasonax & type in Bitcoin & Ethereum to double check the numbers I came up with) Right now this info is free on their web site.
> 
> Method 2 This info can be found on internet for free
> 
> S&P trade using 3x leveraged ETF with 200 day moving average ( source google dow award leveraged for the long run)
> 
> From Oct 1929 through Oct 2015 average 5 trades a year annual return 26.8% verses 9.8% buy & hold strategy. Calculated with 1% mer for the leveraged trade
> 
> All you have to do is buy the S&P3 X leveraged fund when above the 200 day moving average & sell when below the 200 day moving average.
> 
> 
> 
> Method 3 ( source Arch Crawford site online resources David Mcmunn Crash of 2017) This info is free on inter net @ Crawfords site
> 
> Decennial Pattern which beat the market by 44.9 fold from 1900 till 2002 according to RW Millar 1 dollar invested in the S&P 500 buy & hold would be worth $ 148.41 verses $ 6,660.86
> 
> If one was out of the market on the start of the zero year & reentered the market on the beginning on June 30th of the second year. Then was out of the market from August through Oct of the 7th year
> 
> 
> Using 3x leveraged ETF with the decennial pattern I do think would turbo charge the returns on the decennial method.
> 
> Small amount of money on table play several methods that beat the pants off the market incase 1 blows up. Use proper money management.
> 
> 
> The Robinhood of Wall Street Greg Mannarino last name spelling ? has a website that is giving out free trades which has been killing the market. He is doing it to fight back the attack on the middle class by the Federal reserve & the billionaires with the bogus COVID. Greg is very very good & with proper money management using his trades US market you will kill the market I do not think you can lose with him. Trades sent right to your email


Lonewolf, could you provide a 10 year projection in terms of CAGR, Sharpe and Sortino for someone putting 1/3 of their portfolio in the methods you have mentioned? What is the risk of ruin in such strategies?


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## depassp

Topo said:


> No investor should be putting 71% of their portfolio in any two stocks, even ones as solid as AAPL and RY, let alone PZA and VET. Such a portfolio was destined to fail, sooner or later.


Undersood. It didn't happen all at once.

I purchased 500 shares of VET on May 29, 2019 at $30. I had analyzed their 5 previous years' of financial statements. FY2015 and FY2016 were a bit rough (negative income) but 2014, 2017 and 2018 looked good. RoE of 4.04%~13.32%, RoC 1.57%~6.14%, long term debt could be paid off in 4-20 years. Their gross and net margins looked healthy, about 75% and 10%, respectively.

In 2019 it seems they took on a bunch of long term debt but I wasn't worried because the business was expanding. The dividend stream was amazing and I was really happy with it but I guess I got greedy.

On August 20, 2019, the stock price had dropped but I was happy with the income and since I planned on owning it for a long time so I thought "Buy the dip" and bought 270 more shares at $20.10. On March 3, 2020 it dropped again and I thought "Great, another deal" and bought 420 more shares at $14.29.

I would not be so worried if the dividend was still flowing and the price hadn't tanked so intensely hard. COVID and global oil politics did not help at all.

PZA happened in a similar way but at least the dividend has returned and the business hasn't tanked as badly (people are still able to buy pizza during COVID).


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## AltaRed

Your thought process is well understood by many of us here. A good many of us have been down that path and have been taken out to the woodshed too, especially in commodity stocks. Averaging down has smoked a lot of members of this forum especially in the commodity space.

The problem with commodities is the producers of the commodities are always price takers and commodity prices are highly volatile. Consider them 'trades' only, or speculative stocks. One must only invest in the very best performers in that business, e.g. a ROE of 15% is no good if most of the companies are making ROE of 25% and/or have gross/net margins twice that of VET. The stronger ones will survive and bury the weak.

I don't know much about 'royalty' companies simply because I would never own one. Their financials can look good due to lack of underlying capital assets, and investors have come to love the investment income streams........until the royalty stream hits the wall and there is nothing they can do about it. They are one trick ponies as many investors have come to realize and therein lies the real risk.

There are many other similar traps that are at best trades, and not buy and hold investments, and that expertise only comes with experience, missteps and learnings from forums such as CMF. Hence why your thought process of indexing, at least for awhile, makes sense. One avoids slipping into an unseen cow pie by spreading your risk. In a few years, you will look back on this as a learning and be wiser for it.


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## :) lonewolf

Topo said:


> Lonewolf, could you provide a 10 year projection in terms of CAGR, Sharpe and Sortino for someone putting 1/3 of their portfolio in the methods you have mentioned? What is the risk of ruin in such strategies?


 no projection. The free viewing of the crypto seasonal trades have been removed. The max drawdown on was something like 41 or 43%


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## depassp

Today I took a step back and took a "big picture" look at my portfolio. I went back and looked at how the portfolio has changed over time:


DatePortfolio ACBPortfolio Market ValueDividends Received (Since last entry)Realized GainsUnrealized Gains ($)Unrealized Profit (%)Annualized Dividend Yield on Cost2019-02-11$1,039.00$1,039.00$0.00$0.000.00%2019-07-30$66,159.40$61,868.70$988.29-$4,290.70-6.49%3.23%2019-12-31$114,915.44$114,471.12$4,649.81-$444.32-0.39%9.59%2020-01-31$119,898.44$117,668.38$1,110.50-$2,230.06-1.86%10.91%2020-02-29$124,812.44$107,737.10$810.24-$17,075.34-13.68%8.17%2020-03-31$121,284.44$69,000.86$1,143.10$138.00-$52,283.58-43.11%11.10%2020-04-30$130,428.53$90,211.95$766.34-$40,216.58-30.83%7.15%2020-05-28$126,910.23$87,908.25$342.33-$186.00-$39,001.98-30.73%3.52%2020-06-29$124,910.14$83,333.88$398.31$248.21-$41,576.26-33.28%3.64%2020-07-30$115,214.94$66,662.44$701.40-$162.59-$48,552.50-42.14%7.17%2020-08-31$100,569.24$64,769.24$308.89-$584.70-$35,800.00-35.60%3.52%2020-09-29$96,595.24$56,442.54$308.75-$40,152.70-41.57%4.02%2020-10-30$96,595.24$54,034.12$328.59-$42,561.12-44.06%4.01%

Focusing on the dividend yield has helped me relax a bit and make it easier to digest the sea of unrealized red. Dividends were my original goal so I'll focus on them until things turn around.


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## Pluto

AltaRed said:


> It is easy to data mine and it is laughable to use Berkshire as an example. I acknowledge a good retail investor can be nimble and quick where an institutional money manager cannot, and that is clearly an advantage. But that same retail investor does not have the resources to put enough effort into stock picking unless they are spending hundreds of hours every year stock picking. Filters and screens can narrow choices but that simply reduces the universe to pick from. It still comes down to financials, ratios and one's crystal ball of the future.
> 
> A number of credible investors from Buffett to Bogle have said the retail investor would be better off in an S&P500 index than stock picking and I believe that is definitely true for at least 90% of retail investors. There is a small percentage of individuals that can outperfom but that is known only in hindsight over long periods of time. It is true even with certain indices. Those currently on the Nasdaq QQQ gravy train really don't know when to get off. It's a speculative bet to stay. It may work out fine long term, or it may pay to get off that train soon.
> 
> Stock pick all you like. It is not the place for the typical retail investor, at least not for the entirety of the portfolio. One post upthread suggested perhaps 90% in broad based (not boutique) ETFs and 10% stock portfolio play money. That is one option for those itching to release their testosterone and/or test stock picking skills. Make it 80/20 or 50/50 if one likes, but have a strategy/reason for doing so.... and put that in one's IPS with a rationale for doing so. An investor has to know why they are doing what they are doing, and for what end purpose. Otherwise they will never know when and if they have arrived.


I agree that you and Topo should just use index funds. Some people just can't learn this. 
I don't spend hundreds of hours per year stock picking and I do fine.


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## AltaRed

I stock pick Canada and index everything else. Whether the performance of my Cdn equity in aggregate exceeds the index or not, I do not know but I hold 15-20 names and make 1-2 trades per year. All I do know is I have avoided most of the under performers like commodities, but have also missed the momentum stocks like SHOP. I think my best performer over the past 12 months has been TRI and my worst NFI. XIU may have performed just as well. It is what it is.


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## Pluto

depassp said:


> Please help me fix my portfolio that I started building in February 2019. It's currently overall -38%.
> 
> In hindsight, I would now be in a better position had I just been "boring" and invested in a suite of index funds. My personality causes me to try to optimize everything and at the time I really couldn't sit with the idea of being in a boring index fund.
> 
> Hindsight 20/20 and all, how do I get myself out of this mess?
> 
> I have already started cutting most of my winners/small losers and going to cash, preparing for what I predict will be another future crash. A big part of me doesn't want to put any more money into the market until well after the US elections. At that time I plan to enter back in the market but this time with index funds.
> 
> I can't bring myself to cut the rest of these fairly larger losers. How should I approach this? Just suck it up and rip off the band-aid? Or hold on for the ride and hope at least some of them recover? Something else? Thoughts?
> 
> 
> Ticker (TSE)Industry/SectorOriginal Investment ThesisAllocation of Portfolio ACB (%)Current Unrealized Profit/Loss (As of Sep18, 2020)PZAConsumer Staples/RetailStrong company with history of consistent dividend payouts43.62%-11.75%VETEnergy/Oil&GasVery high dividend yield. Canadian company (eligible dividends) but smaller exposure to hurting Canadian oil patch. They have exposure to Brent crude.27.37%-81.81%IPLEnergy/PipelinesHigh dividend8.7%-33.32%BKFinancials/Asset ManagementSeemed like an easy way to get exposure to 6 Canadian banks with a high dividend yield6.37%-34.33%DFNFinancials/Asset ManagementExposure to more high quality Canadian dividend payers4.61%-27.5%AFNIndustrials/MachineryNeeded to diversify portfolio which at the time was almost exclusively energy+financials4.45%-28.71%CGXConsumer Discretionary/EntertainmentI like the high dividend yield and believe in the business.4.87%-65.59%
> 
> Total portfolio ACB is $96,595.24 (current market value $59,508.74)


The index's rip off the band aid. They dump their worst, and replace it with a winner.


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## depassp

Pluto said:


> I agree that you and Topo should just use index funds. Some people just can't learn this.
> I don't spend hundreds of hours per year stock picking and I do fine.


Indeed I have a very hard time learning this. I think I'm probably "too smart for my own good". I need to be in control and I have the desire to "optimize" everything.

Indexing interferes with both those needs. I'm no longer in control of my portfolio -- rather I'm now in the hands of "the index". It's now impossible for me to do any better than the entire market so there's nothing to optimize.



AltaRed said:


> I stock pick Canada and index everything else.


I think I can do this. I have a much lower familiarity with companies outside Canada so it's probably easier to justify indexing there. I think I'll slowly migrate my Canadian equities portion to something like the "5-pack". I'll do that once my losers have recovered and in the meantime just hang on and hope for the dividends to keep rolling.


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## Tea Lady

Depassp
Reading your post and all the replies I too am in a similar position.
I am stuck too.

I do not have a DB pension. I took my late husband's DB pension funds and put into stocks.
I have lost several that just vanished.
Now I have more losers than winners.
I don't know where to turn.
Wealth Management want $1K a month to manage
And an independent Financial Advisor wants $4K to review my portfolio.

This portfolio was originally over 1 Million and now down to $600K
Any advice welcome please?


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## Pluto

Tea Lady said:


> Depassp
> Reading your post and all the replies I too am in a similar position.
> I am stuck too.
> 
> I do not have a DB pension. I took my late husband's DB pension funds and put into stocks.
> I have lost several that just vanished.
> Now I have more losers than winners.
> I don't know where to turn.
> Wealth Management want $1K a month to manage
> And an independent Financial Advisor wants $4K to review my portfolio.
> 
> This portfolio was originally over 1 Million and now down to $600K
> Any advice welcome please?







__





Contact Garth — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate







www.greaterfool.ca


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## Tea Lady

Pluto said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Contact Garth — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.greaterfool.ca


I am in Ottawa.
Thank you for the tip Pluto.
Very much appreciated.


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## Pluto

Tea Lady said:


> I am in Ottawa.
> Thank you for the tip Pluto.
> Very much appreciated.


Quite frankly this forum is not the place for advice to fix portfolios. Too many cynics and poor performers here who have ill conceived ideas. It is difficult for a reader to sort out the baloney from the reliable ideas. Wealth management wants to charge you 2% on assets. That's too much. You might find Turner Investments more to your liking. Send him, Turner, an email and see what he says.


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## Tea Lady

Thank You Pluto. Will do.
I just found RJ has an office here in Ottawa.


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## AltaRed

I think in this case, I agree it would serve you best to seek out something like Turner to help you re-organize your portfolio...given the decline in value of your investments. I would suggest you are a classic example of someone who should have their investments on a Couch Potato ETF portfolio and just leave them alone. Turner should automatically be recommending that once your stock history is understood. There are many CCP portfolios that suit retail investors, both as noted on CCP and also on Finiki where a number of One fund, Two, Three, Four and Five fund portfolios are mentioned.


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## Pluto

Tea Lady said:


> Thank You Pluto. Will do.
> I just found RJ has an office here in Ottawa.


Good. We are a bunch of do it yourself independent types who exchange ideas and debate. It can be information overload and misleading to the beginner. You are in a situation where you need to stop the bleeding, and get on an upward path fast. Going with a professional you will pay fees but you will also see, form statements they give you, how they do it, and it will be a learning thing. Lots of us here started when young and made mistakes at an age where it could be made up by future earnings, so in a sense we paid fees in terms of youthful losses. I don't think you want to experiment with your retirement money just for a learning experience. 

Also once you find out how a firm manages your money you don't necessarily need to keep giving them any additional savings. You can copy what they do in your own account. And if you are inclined, and study, you may end up being a whiz bang investor. On the other hand there is nothing wrong with focusing on your job, trying to increase your income, and just let some reasonable cost pro do the investing for you.


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## Mortgage u/w

I assume you picked the stocks you did for a reason and believed in them. Your view on them shouldn't change because their values dropped without any significant change in their operations and future outlook. I also assume this is not money you need in the near future so I wouldn't stress too much.

I say you take advantage of the 'sale' and add to your positions to lower your ACB.


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## depassp

Mortgage u/w said:


> I assume you picked the stocks you did for a reason and believed in them. Your view on them shouldn't change because their values dropped without any significant change in their operations and future outlook. I also assume this is not money you need in the near future so I wouldn't stress too much.
> 
> I say you take advantage of the 'sale' and add to your positions to lower your ACB.


Indeed I picked them for various reasons after quite a bit of research.

The problem is that the future outlook had changed. Global oil demand is gone and TBH I'm not sure to what extent it will come back. People have mostly stopped discretionary spending so my initial purchase theses are kinda shot.

Indeed this is not money I need for >15 years but I still want to see regular gains. Seeing my hard earned money go into the shitter so quickly like that is very disheartening.

Thank you for the motivation but I don't think I'll be "buying the dip" - at least, not these individual stocks. I'll slowly shift over to some passive index investing as opportunities arise


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## james4beach

depassp said:


> Thank you for the motivation but I don't think I'll be "buying the dip" - at least, not these individual stocks. I'll slowly shift over to some passive index investing as opportunities arise


Mutual funds are another viable option. Diversification should help avoid problems like the one you experienced, due to less concentration into any single sector or company.

Here's an older thread on some well diversified 'one size fits all' funds

Don't feel too bad about this. Your story is much more common than you might think. From seeing the experiences of my friends and coworkers, I have come to see that it's very common for someone to pick a bunch of stocks which seem like good ideas, which then absolutely crash, or do far worse than the benchmark.

Your case isn't even so bad. Your largest weight was in PZA which has more or less kept up with the Canadian stock market. What really got you was the 36% weight in energy (a sector which got obliterated) plus CGX, a company which got stomped to death by COVID-19.

If you had something similar, but a more broadly diversified portfolio with lower sector concentration, more sectors, and more stocks, it might have actually been OK. The initial effort wasn't necessarily a bad one. The only shortcoming was (in my opinion) lack of diversification, and excessive concentrations.

Putting together such broadly diversified portfolios is pretty tough, which is why I think it's a good idea to either look to a mutual fund, or the broad index since those achieve that with minimal effort.

For example if one holds equal amounts of XIC (Canada) + XAW (world), you automatically get diversification across thousands of stocks at once, plus many different sectors. As an example, with that mix, energy sector exposure drops to just 6% but you also get things you didn't have, like 15% tech sector, 8% communications, etc.


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## depassp

james4beach said:


> Your case isn't even so bad. Your largest weight was in PZA which has more or less kept up with the Canadian stock market. What really got you was the 36% weight in energy (a sector which got obliterated) plus CGX, a company which got stomped to death by COVID-19.


Yeah, I mostly ignored the advantage of diversification. The portfolio was initially doing very well. I had a very nice income stream and way fast-tracking my mortgage, as planned. Greed took over and encouraged me to keep chasing the high yields which lead me to VET.



james4beach said:


> For example if one holds equal amounts of XIC (Canada) + XAW (world), you automatically get diversification across thousands of stocks at once, plus many different sectors. As an example, with that mix, energy sector exposure drops to just 6% but you also get things you didn't have, like 15% tech sector, 8% communications, etc.


Yep, I've already started purchasing XAW. I bought a bunch on Monday when it dropped to $27.68. I've got some "dry powder" that I'm waiting to deploy until either after the US election or on extreme dips. I think I'll sit tight with these individual Canadian stocks and slowly migrate them over to ETFs if/when they recover.


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## james4beach

depassp said:


> Please help me fix my portfolio that I started building in February 2019. It's currently overall -38%.


Due to your energy exposure + Cineplex, your portfolio was heavily exposed to COVID-19.

Today your portfolio is up around 8% to 9% ... congrats! If the COVID story turns around, maybe you'll see the whole thing recover. CGX is up 32% today.


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## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> Due to your energy exposure + Cineplex, your portfolio was heavily exposed to COVID-19.
> 
> Today your portfolio is up around 8% to 9% ... congrats! If the COVID story turns around, maybe you'll see the whole thing recover. *CGX is up 32% today.*


 ... talk about getting dizzy without having to step into an IMAX theater. 

And tomorrow, we ride the roller-coaster the other way ... since the pandemic is still here.


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## Pluto

I don't get the cgx business at this point, not from an investor point of view. Any moat it may have had was filled in and paved by home theater. Not saying that cgx will disappear, just saying that it has no clear path to growth. More likely to shrink. 

Again, index's go up partly because four time a years, or so, they ditch their worst stock if they have a better one to replace it with. No index would go up if they clung to their worst performers.


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## depassp

james4beach said:


> Due to your energy exposure + Cineplex, your portfolio was heavily exposed to COVID-19.
> 
> Today your portfolio is up around 8% to 9% ... congrats! If the COVID story turns around, maybe you'll see the whole thing recover. CGX is up 32% today.


Indeed it was a very happy surprise. Now I only need another 82% total portfolio gain to break even! Woohoo


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## depassp

PZA had a bit of a rally today with the announcement that the dividend is increasing by 10%.

I still like the stock but took this as an opportunity to rebalance, take a small loss, reduce my exposure a bit and reduce my overall debt ratio (by paying off the line of credit backing this portfolio). I still expect another downturn and will increase my dry powder in preparation. If/when the downturn comes, I'll deploy some funds into XIC or a 5-pack (haven't decided yet).


Ticker (TSE)Industry/SectorOriginal Investment ThesisAllocation of Portfolio ACB (%)Current Unrealized Profit/Loss
(As of Nov12, 2020)PZAConsumer Staples/RetailStrong company with history of consistent dividend payouts26.71%-10.32%VETEnergy/Oil&GasVery high dividend yield. Canadian company (eligible dividends) but smaller exposure to hurting Canadian oil patch. They have exposure to Brent crude.35.59%-81.55%IPLEnergy/PipelinesHigh dividend11.31%-35.84%BKFinancials/Asset ManagementSeemed like an easy way to get exposure to 6 Canadian banks with a high dividend yield8.28%-29.98%DFNFinancials/Asset ManagementExposure to more high quality Canadian dividend payers6.00%-34.90%AFNIndustrials/MachineryNeeded to diversify portfolio which at the time was almost exclusively energy+financials5.79%-31.90%CGXConsumer Discretionary/EntertainmentI like the high dividend yield and believe in the business.6.33%-72.56%

Total portfolio ACB is $74,305.94 (current market value $39,499.20, down 46.84%)


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## depassp

I thought I'd give an update on this portfolio (which is the Smith Maneuvre leveraged part of my total portfolio). I sold AFN last year. This year I sold PZA and BK after they rallied. I'm trying to bring my overall equities allocation (which includes 4 other accounts: my TFSA+RRSP and my wife's RRSP and Sposal RRSP) to an even split between Canada/US/EAFE.


Ticker (TSE)Industry/SectorOriginal Investment ThesisAllocation of Portfolio ACB (%)Current Unrealized Profit/Loss
(As of Mar13, 2021)VETEnergy/Oil&GasVery high dividend yield. Canadian company (eligible dividends) but smaller exposure to hurting Canadian oil patch. They have exposure to Brent crude.60.09%-51.26%IPLEnergy/PipelinesHigh dividend19.10%-12.33%DFNFinancials/Asset ManagementExposure to more high quality Canadian dividend payers10.12%-17.17%CGXConsumer Discretionary/EntertainmentI like the high dividend yield and believe in the business.10.69%-39.77%

I have loss aversion. I plan to hold VET until either the price recovers (at which point I will sell and reallocate to XIC) or goes bankrupt. I think more likely they will get bought out or the energy sector will finally fully recover and this dividend payer will resume its steady and high payout.

It's nice to see the movie theatres opening again. Maybe with vaccine rollouts to the general public we'll see a return to "normal" by the fall and CGX will resume dividends and recover.

Total portfolio ACB is $44,003.00 (current market value $26,777.00, down 39.15%).


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## depassp

Time for another update...


Ticker (TSE)Industry/SectorOriginal Investment ThesisAllocation of SM Portfolio ACB Current Unrealized Profit/Loss (As of Jul18, 2021)VETEnergy/Oil&GasVery high dividend yield. Canadian company (eligible dividends) but smaller exposure to hurting Canadian oil patch. They have exposure to Brent crude.60.09%-60.31%IPLEnergy/PipelinesHigh dividend19.10%-0.33%DFNFinancials/Asset ManagementExposure to more high quality Canadian dividend payers10.12%-9.09%CGXConsumer Discretionary/EntertainmentI like the high dividend yield and believe in the business.10.69%-39.60%

Total portfolio ACB is still $44,003.00. Current market value $25,761.80, down 41.45%.

It's very nice to see IPL recover with the merger/takeover battle between BIPC and PPL. Once it's over I plan to sell and reduce my current overexposure to Energy.

I'm still hopeful that VET will recover. With the end of pandemic restrictions in sight, I hope global oil prices will recover and increase oil demand.


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