# The Glowing Canadian Economy



## james_57 (Jul 5, 2010)

I'm sure y'all heard the news today - Canada's economy is racing forward at breakneck speed, and collecting NYT accolades. Rates are ticking up. But its all Ontario in the job growth, and health-care is leading the way. Interesting times.

Edited to add, and Quebec


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I wonder how many jobs were associate with the G20? With the stellar job report, BOC will be anxious to raise that prime rate come July 20 now.. plus they want real estate to cool off too. (which is already starting)


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Jungle said:


> I wonder how many jobs were associate with the G20? With the stellar job report, BOC will be anxious to raise that prime rate come July 20 now.. plus they want real estate to cool off too. (which is already starting)


So then why have the banks just reduced their mortgage rates?


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Mortgage rates are determined by the bond market.

www.canadianmortgagetrends.com

'June 30, 2010
Yields Plunge. Spreads Explode
The bond market continues to defy economists’ expectations (no news there). What is news, is that the 5-year yield has fallen to 2.30%, well below technical support at 2.40%.

Disappointing Canadian GDP, weaker growth in China, and rallying U.S treasuries are just the latest catalysts pushing down yields. The 5-year GoC is now back to its yield levels from May 2009. 

More importantly, the spread between discounted 5-year fixed rates and the bond is now 2.09%—a 15-month high. (The 10-year average is 1.25)

Fat spreads mean fat profits for lenders. It also means that fixed rates are way higher than they should be, based on the cost of funds. The last time the 5-year yield was at 2.30%, discounted five-year fixed rates were 3.75%. (The banks’ “special offer” discounted rates are 4.49% today.)

It wouldn’t be a stretch to expect more cuts to fixed rates soon…'


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## james_57 (Jul 5, 2010)

Jungle said:


> I wonder how many jobs were associate with the G20? With the stellar job report, BOC will be anxious to raise that prime rate come July 20 now.. plus they want real estate to cool off too. (which is already starting)


Good point. 1.1 billion injected into the economy, mostly in ON, and on the back of The Winter Olympics too.


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## james_57 (Jul 5, 2010)

We've been noticed... time to dim the lights.

Bad omen for U.S.: Canada's mysterious success

By Nick Godt, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The success of Canada, where big money and business interests don't have as much sway over policies as in the U.S., is a good reminder of why economic prospects here are getting grimmer.


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## chaudi (Sep 10, 2009)

I`m sceptical. Why should Canada succeed if the USA is failing ? Remember in the 80's Canada hit boom times because of free trade. The dollar was low, exporters did well, manufacturing, Canada was booming. Toronto was abuzz. Now it's the opposite scenario.
Canada has an ageing population, who will fill their shoes? In 20 years there will be %50 more retires. Who will by their house for half a million. Immigrants? Look at the younger generation now a days, do they save, work hard like their parents and grandparents? These are the kids of the hippies coming in now. They just need napster and fast food and they're happy.
So with the US's market worsening how can little canada 30 million retired penny pitchers compare to 350million Americans who love to spend spend spend? It's back to the 80's we go. There was a housing bubble back then too. If the Americans stop buy from us why should our economy grow or not fall as well?


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

chaudi said:


> ...
> 
> Canada has an ageing population, who will fill their shoes? In 20 years there will be %50 more retires. Who will by their house for half a million.
> 
> ...


How many people put their house for sale on the day they retire? I'm guessing not many.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Four Pillars said:


> How many people put their house for sale on the day they retire? I'm guessing not many.


They have been selling them to Chinese investors. In my case, I sold to Chinese in 1997 and then sold to a developer in 2009. $550k for a 25x110 foot lot in North Toronto


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## chaudi (Sep 10, 2009)

The other thing is that people don't need to work at the office and more. Office building are less necessary. Already many people can easily work 1-2 days from home. That will increase, all due to technology. The entire reason TO is expensive to live is because of the jobs near by. Jobs are now being dispersed all over the country or world. The factories, call centres, programming jobs, are run in India or Africa, Asia etc.
Canada has lost it's creative edge. No coincidence you don't see many martin shorts, dan ackaroy, jim carey etc anymore. 
A lot retires leave the country, move home, travel. Overall they don't spend that much in the country, they don't buy new houses, new cars boats, they just chill and hold onto the last minutes, usually are happy to eat a little bowl of porridge. When their houses are difficult to care for they have to sell and move to an old age home. Their house usually need a lot of repairs by then too.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

chaudi said:


> ...
> 
> A lot retires leave the country, move home, travel. Overall they don't spend that much in the country, they don't buy new houses, new cars boats, they just chill and hold onto the last minutes, usually are happy to eat a little bowl of porridge. When their houses are difficult to care for they have to sell and move to an old age home. Their house usually need a lot of repairs by then too.


Haha - ok, now you are just making this s**t up.

My parents are retired and you've described the opposite of them. Especially the eating part.


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## MoneyGal (Apr 24, 2009)

OK, I'm NOT retired and you've described my life. "Never buying new cars and content with just a little bowl of porridge..." Umpteen continuous generations of oats-eating Scots.


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## james_57 (Jul 5, 2010)

chaudi said:


> I`m sceptical. Why should Canada succeed if the USA is failing ? Remember in the 80's Canada hit boom times because of free trade. The dollar was low, exporters did well, manufacturing, Canada was booming. Toronto was abuzz. Now it's the opposite scenario.
> Canada has an ageing population, who will fill their shoes? In 20 years there will be %50 more retires. Who will by their house for half a million. Immigrants? Look at the younger generation now a days, do they save, work hard like their parents and grandparents? These are the kids of the hippies coming in now. They just need napster and fast food and they're happy.
> So with the US's market worsening how can little canada 30 million retired penny pitchers compare to 350million Americans who love to spend spend spend? It's back to the 80's we go. There was a housing bubble back then too. If the Americans stop buy from us why should our economy grow or not fall as well?


Hippies? lol chaudi you're a little dated there. The hippy generation was a 'concept' born among the teenager's and early '20's age of the late-1960s, not an economic class. *They are grandparents now,* and most of the so-called hippies went on to university in the 60's/70's and later became income earners and then house-owners ten years later in the '80's. 

The median age of Canadians is 39 years, for Germany is 43 yrs, and for the US 35 years. The average age in India 25 yrs, however the Indian life expectancy is only 69 yrs, being 12 yrs less than Canada (81). So with half the Canadian population sitting at exactly the mid-point of their life expectancy, it seems fairly even. 

The answer to your very important point, the one that supersedes the others, is 'we cannot'. Canada CANNOT succeed decoupling from the US economy. Where they go, we follow, and they are deleveraging, headed for deflation. So what's your call? Mine is to batten down the hatches and deploy defensive measures as though the barometer is dropping ahead of the hurricane.


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## MoneyGal (Apr 24, 2009)

Well, for me the most "dated" reference was to Napster.


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

MoneyGal said:


> Umpteen continuous generations of oats-eating Scots.


It's a little-known fact that, along with all the other things they invented (golf, the telephone, fish-farming, Jaffa Cakes), the Scots originated the concept of cereal monogamy.


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## chaudi (Sep 10, 2009)

"They are grandparents now, and most of the so-called hippies went on to university in the 60's/70's and later became income earners and then house-owners ten years later in the '80's"

That is the point, these 6 yrs old joint rollers are now in the 40's looking to buy a house. You think they are going to pull it off? A lot of people in their 50's have no saving too. Must be plenty of burnt out hippies with no money. As a society we will have not only support them but provide free medical service to them. What are we going to do throw them out in the snow?


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## james_57 (Jul 5, 2010)

chaudi said:


> "They are grandparents now, and most of the so-called hippies went on to university in the 60's/70's and later became income earners and then house-owners ten years later in the '80's"
> 
> That is the point, these 6 yrs old joint rollers are now in the 40's looking to buy a house. You think they are going to pull it off? A lot of people in their 50's have no saving too. Must be plenty of burnt out hippies with no money. As a society we will have not only support them but provide free medical service to them. What are we going to do throw them out in the snow?
> [/IMG]


I'm sorry, but you must be living in another Canada. How about we revert the conversation to some economic data, that's always safer. The boomer generation, of which i am apart of, has assets. And because we are not Americans, we did not on average get hit with a 40% loss in assets in the most recent crash. If you want to worry about something Canadian, worry about the fact that 28% of our youth are obese. Our health care costs are going to rocket, and its not because some latter-day-hippies on the west coast are smoking pot. 

Worry about the US economy, because our economy is driven by exports to that country, not to mention their tourist dollar. Worry about deflation, and US negative growth and what dropping oil prices can do to the Canadian oil patch. Those are real worries.

Canada has a glowing economy right now (briefly) because we are in the slack of a global change of economic tide. We have very little debt compared to the other G8, and that's mainly due to the policies of our institutions. However, we are on the same ship that's going down, just standing on the bridge, next to the Captain.


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## GeniusBoy27 (Jun 11, 2010)

chaudi said:


> "Canada has lost it's creative edge. No coincidence you don't see many martin shorts, dan ackaroy, jim carey etc anymore."
> QUOTE]
> 
> Wait ... we got the Bieber. We rule the world! Or at least teenage girls!


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## GeniusBoy27 (Jun 11, 2010)

Actually, more seriously. I think the Canadian economy is headed more to stagnation because of the impact on the US economy. Hence, I can't see interest rates skyrocketing too fast, until the US economy recovers.

However, interest rates will rise back to norms, because to be honest, our interest rates were a little too far down. But to look across Canada, would be a mistake to say all regions will have the same effects. I think the manufacturing sectors in Ontario and Quebec are going to take slower to recovery, but the Prairie provinces will continue to move ahead, and move ahead quickly.

I think to generalize on the Baby Boomer generation, would be stupid. I know tons of rich baby boomers, and tons of poor ones. Just because there's retirement of the boomers doesn't necessarily mean stagnation of the economy. The expansion of economic growth can still occur through immigration, providing cheap labour, and/or skilled individuals.

To generalize that retirees eat less, buy less houses and/or cars. I think in general, there's less opprortunity and need to. But trust me, my parents just bought a nice new car. And they now eat out at least, once a week, which was something they never did in the past.

BTW -- I tend to think offensively when things get bad. It presents itself as an "opportunity". You want to reduce personal debt and risk, but at the same time, it shouldn't prevent you from buying property and/or other investments that are undervalued.

Chaudi: If you think things are going to get worse, why wouldn't you wait to pick up even larger bargains?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

chaudi said:


> The other thing is that people don't need to work at the office and more. Office building are less necessary. Already many people can easily work 1-2 days from home. ...


Yea my son moved to Belleville and works for Telus in Toronto but only comes in 2-3 days a week.



james_57 said:


> Canada has a glowing economy right now (briefly) because we are in the slack of a global change of economic tide. We have very little debt compared to the other G8, and that's mainly due to the policies of our institutions. However, we are on the same ship that's going down, just standing on the bridge, next to the Captain.


Amen Captain. Anyone that thinks we can dodge the downturn is not thinking clearly. It won't be as bad but then that's not saying much.


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## chaudi (Sep 10, 2009)

"Chaudi: If you think things are going to get worse, why wouldn't you wait to pick up even larger bargains? "

Yes your right and that's what i'm thinking. But this house is only 150k, my rent is 9k for 6months, if i wait a year i'll have saved 20k. I'm not so sure these houses will devaluate so quickly because they are already so cheap. 

(ps, i'm awake now because the stupid tenant in the basement apartment woke me up!


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## james_57 (Jul 5, 2010)

kcowan said:


> Amen Captain. Anyone that thinks we can dodge the downturn is not thinking clearly. It won't be as bad but then that's not saying much.


Ya, but this bear rally is making me sweat. Please council me NOT to buy anything... I need group support. lol

Repeating..._ i am not a trader...i am not a trader..i am not.._


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## loggedout (Dec 30, 2009)

james_57 said:


> I'm sure y'all heard the news today - Canada's economy is racing forward at breakneck speed, and collecting NYT accolades. Rates are ticking up. But its all Ontario in the job growth, and health-care is leading the way. Interesting times.
> 
> Edited to add, and Quebec


How does health care pay for itself?

I mean, if most of the jobs are in health care and health care is subsidized...doesn't that mean that health care is paying for itself in a way?

I'm very worried as an engineer about my long-term job prospects in Ontario. I don't see a very good future ahead.


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## james_57 (Jul 5, 2010)

loggedout said:


> How does health care pay for itself?
> 
> I mean, if most of the jobs are in health care and health care is subsidized...doesn't that mean that health care is paying for itself in a way?
> 
> I'm very worried as an engineer about my long-term job prospects in Ontario. I don't see a very good future ahead.


What industry do you work in? If i was a forestry eng, i'd be very worried. Robotics, not so much. 

Heathcare is a drag on the economy. 

In order to understand this economy ACCURATELY, you have to eliminate the noise. At the top, in order of importance-drivers, is the US economy. Stop there, until that's figured out. 

What drives the US economic cycle? Answer: investment in residential housing. (that's a hard, unshakable fact, where you can drive a stake in the ground, if you want to read the abstract, i'll send you the link).

Where's investment in RRE going? answer: down

Why is the US RRE going down? answer: over-supply and under-demand

Why is there an over supply? answer: Greenspan. Monetary policy in the US, cheap cost of money from 2002-2005 created a massive RE bubble. 3 trillion in excess lending, money that had no economically-sane reason to be loaned in, was.

Why is there an under-demand for housing investment? answer: consumers over-borrowed 3 trillion dollars 2002-2005, and household balance sheets are badly damaged. 

When will the cycle turn? answer: not before 5 years, when RRE bottoms in the US

There, that eliminates the noise.


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## loggedout (Dec 30, 2009)

james_57 said:


> What industry do you work in? If i was a forestry eng, i'd be very worried. Robotics, not so much.


Nuclear with prior experience in Industrial Automation.



> When will the cycle turn? answer: not before 5 years, when RRE bottoms in the US
> 
> There, that eliminates the noise.


So what does this mean in Ontario? The same applies here?


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## james_57 (Jul 5, 2010)

loggedout said:


> So what does this mean in Ontario? The same applies here?


Yes. Unless some fundamental change occurs with the Canadian economy.. Do you see one?


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## loggedout (Dec 30, 2009)

james_57 said:


> Yes. Unless some fundamental change occurs with the Canadian economy.. Do you see one?


Nope which worries me. Time to move/run?


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Well, as far as I call tell, our nuclear plants aren't going anywhere. I wouldn't worry about Ontario too much, as an engineer. It's one of the more dynamic manufacturing economies in North America and it has a lot of diversification.


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## james_57 (Jul 5, 2010)

loggedout said:


> Nope which worries me. Time to move/run?


Where would you run to - India? China? France?

Canada is going to slide down the pole just like all the G7 economies, the comfort is, we will maintain our position on the pole, IMHO...thank god bank of Canada rates are cooling off the crazy borrowing. Canadian households are in deep, way above healthy household debt to house price ratios.


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## loggedout (Dec 30, 2009)

james_57 said:


> Where would you run to - India? China? France?
> 
> Canada is going to slide down the pole just like all the G7 economies, the comfort is, we will maintain our position on the pole, IMHO...thank god bank of Canada rates are cooling off the crazy borrowing. Canadian households are in deep, way above healthy household debt to house price ratios.


India or China, or the Middle East wherever I can secure a relatively good job if I'm out of luck here.


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## K-133 (Apr 30, 2010)

China looks good now - but their dirty secret is beginning to show its ugly head. Their banks have extended themselves thin, and some are not being repaid by their borrowers (sound familiar). Hopefully this can be contained.

On the other hand, China is also in the midst of a shift from producer to consumer economy - which would be good news for China, but perhaps not such great news for the Western world - interesting changes afoot.


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## Topo (Aug 31, 2019)

Looking at the yield curve for Canadas and comparing with a year ago:









Yields are certainly lower, but the yield curve is no longer inverted and show a healthy slope. I don't know if this is just incidental, but in my books a normal slope should always be welcomed!


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