# 2013 predictions contest



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

2013 predictions contest

I will be running the predictions contest again in 2013.

Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on Dec 31, 2013 in the following format:

DOW: 
TSX: 
GOLD: 
OIL: 
CAD: 

with the dollar amounts in USD except the TSX.

Deadline for entry is January 14th at 9:30 am EST. Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before then.


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

Dow: 14200
tsx: 12000
gold: 1750
oil: 82.50
cad: 1.02


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Dow: 11500
TSX: 11000
Gold: 1900
OIl: 75
Cad: 98

This is a tougher year then last year even though I forgot it was an election year. Had I thought of that I would have done a lot better in 2012. This year we still have Europe which is a minus 1, we could be going towards a recession which is minus 1, first year after an election is another minus 1, we have all the debt ceiling and fiscal cliff problems still to deal with and Iran may need to be taken out this year which is good for oil and gold but not much else. So this gives us a nice wall of worry which is a plus 1 but you can expect a very bumpy ride to get that wall of worry return if it comes to pass.


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## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

Dow: 14900
TSX: 12660
Gold: 1550
OIl: 90
Cad: 0.96 (for 1 USD)


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Dow: 13900
TSX: 12200
Gold: 1450
Oil: 85
Cad: 1.00


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## Pickering (Jun 24, 2011)

Dow : 14,750
TSX : 11,500
Gold : $1450
Oil : $87.50
Can : 0.9350 ( for 1 USD )


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Dow: 14,200
TSX: 13,000
Gold: 1900
Oil 100
Cad 0.98


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## Dibs (May 26, 2011)

Dow: 14,000
TSX: 13,000
Gold: $1650
Oil: $100
Can: 1.04 USD


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

Dow : 14,800
TSX : 11,400
Gold : $2300
Oil : $98
Can : 0.99 ( for 1 USD ) 

My prediction: The year of printing money down south and start of housing issues up here.


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

what are the opening numbers?


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Dow : 13,900
TSX : 13,100
Gold : $1750
Oil : $98
Can : 0.97 (for 1 USD)


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Dow 13500
TSX 12500
Gold 1720
Oil 96
$cad $1.02


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Copied my same guesses as last year.. who knows...

DOW: 10000
TSX: 9500
Gold: 1500
Oil (WTI): 60
CAD/USD: 0.80

On a side note, why do so many in the media look at the DOW when the SP500 has more trading volume?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Dow: 14,500
tsx: 13,300
gold: $1,450
oil: $123
cad: 1.02


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Dow and TSX unchanged.
Oil 100, Gold 2000, CAD $1.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Dow 16200
TSX 14200
Gold 1900
Oil 80
CAD $1.05


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Sampson said:


> what are the opening numbers?


See here:
http://members.shaw.ca/keith.cowan/2012Predictions.jpg


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here is some food for thought on the US Outlook:
G&M Opinion Piece (Wente)
Lots of comments pro & con


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Dow: 14400
TSX: 13300
Gold: 1500
Oil: 100
CAD: $1.05


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

First time predicting... here goes:

Dow: 13900
TSX: 13000
Gold: 1850
Oil: 85
CAD: 1.00


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

2013 Predictions by Michael Belkin

With apologies to HP for his poor attempt at parody using Alice.


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## 1.5M (Apr 21, 2012)

Dow: 15200
tsx: 13100
gold: 1450
oil: 78
cad: 0.94


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Reminder your forecasts are due before market open on Monday.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Argonaut said:


> Dow and TSX unchanged.
> Oil 100, Gold 2000, CAD $1.


Unchanged from last year's forecast? (vs last year's close)


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Unchanged from Jan 1 2013. Didn't want to take the extra second to view the values.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

kcowan said:


> With apologies to HP for his poor attempt at parody using Alice.



was it a poor attempt ? so sorry ! i'll try to write better

at the other extreme i am a big fan of your predictions contest. I don't enter because i can't predict, can only stumble along using options ...


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Dow:14500
tsx:13100
gold:1370
oil:96
cad: 99.8


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

DOW: 13900
TSX: 13500
GOLD: 1750
OIL: 100
CAD: 1.05

My prediction is the seasonal run-up to March, followed by a dump in the summer and then flattening out towards year end. In other words, sort of following the pattern we've become accustomed to. Then again, maybe I'm being affected by recency.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Dow: 13750
tsx: 13250
gold: 1725
oil: 97
cad: 0.98


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Dow: 13600
TSX: 12700
Gold: 1800
Oil: 100
Cad: 1.00


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> was it a poor attempt ? so sorry ! i'll try to write better
> 
> at the other extreme i am a big fan of your predictions contest. I don't enter because i can't predict, can only stumble along using options ...


No his referred to the author who was poor by comparison to our esteemed HP. Sorry for the reversed intepretation. Anyone who mocks belguy is a friend of mine...


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

ddkay said:


> On a side note, why do so many in the media look at the DOW when the SP500 has more trading volume?


The S&P is a better indicator of the US market and we tried to change that to be our measure of the US but they was no consensus.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Dow: 12500
tsx: 12000
gold: 1550
oil: 92
cad: 1.0


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

"Anyone who mocks belguy is a friend of mine."

That cinches it!! I'm not going to enter your stupid contest this year. Besides, how would I know where the markets will end up? How can anyone know?

It's a mug's game.:stupid::chargrined::grumpy::sour:


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)




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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Belguy said:


> "Anyone who mocks belguy is a friend of mine."
> 
> That cinches it!! I'm not going to enter your stupid contest this year. Besides, how would I know where the markets will end up? How can anyone know?
> 
> ...


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Do I care where the indexes will end this year?
I could not care less.[/QUOTE]

Frankly Scarlett, I don't give a @#%&!!!

:apathy::chargrined::grumpy::sour:


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## NicW11 (Mar 3, 2012)

dow: 13200
tsx: 12900
gold: 1740
oil: 98
$: 99


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Dow: 1300
tsx: 1100
gold: 2000
oil: 95
cad: 1.03


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## explorer416 (Jun 11, 2010)

Dow: 13950
tsx: 13150
gold: 1900
oil: 98
cad: 1.02


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Dow: 14650
tsx: 12850
gold: 1780
oil: 96.50
cad: 0.9750


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

An index investor has more riding on this contest than any other participant. I am trying to show the average of our guesses but Win7 is not allowing me to show you all the chart. Sorry about that. I will keep trying.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here are the current standings for 2013:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The early leader is Dibs at 2.1% error (with honorable mention to marina628 at 2.17%).


> 1. Economists’ predictions are no better than guesses
> 2. Government economists often worse than guesses
> 3. Long-term accuracy is impossible
> 4. Turning points cannot be predicted
> ...


Source


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Current leader is Xoron with an accuracy of 2.1%!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Current leader is avrex with an accuracy of 2.8%


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

I regret missing this thread in time. Makes for interest reading.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Great work Kcowan, thanks for the update!


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I am tied with dogcom for CAD.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Jungle said:


> I am tied with dogcom for CAD.


As is mode3sour.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Xoron is the current leader with 2.7% forecast error.


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## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

kcowan said:


> Xoron is the current leader with 2.7% forecast error.


WOOHOO! Now, if I could only be as good with my stock predictions, I'd be rich! :encouragement:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The courage of your convictions is what counts. Just ignore all the noise...


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Xoron is holding with 2.8% accuracy!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Eder is the new leader with 5.5% error. Half way there!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Eder increases the lead with 5.2% error.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Nice Eder!

Kcowan, is there an updated table you can share? Curious. Thanks again for the fun.


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## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

My Own Advisor said:


> Kcowan, is there an updated table you can share?


I think the image upthread has been updated:
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showt...ctions-contest?p=164012&viewfull=1#post164012


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

I guess my $2,300 gold prediction was a little off. :rolleyes2:


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Don't feel bad. 
Gold is now lower than any of us thought.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Eder increases the lead again with 4.7% error.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Eder holds the lead with an improved 4.2% error.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Eder improves his lead with an amazing 3.4% error.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Eder improves his lead with an amazing 3.4%
> 
> I win a cookie?
> Really though I am sorry I had a fairly accurate thought on the direction of gold...it has hurt many portfolio's.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I grant you a cookie! Just don't erase it! And well done.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Eder holds on again with 6.2% accuracy.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I really suck at this lol


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Yup, thank goodness I didn't invest based on my own predictions :rolleyes2:


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Same here Harold lol


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Congratulations to Eder who is the overall winner with an amazing 7.9% accuracy.
Runners up are fatcat and 1.5M.

Category winners are:
DOW Sherlock
TSX Spidey
GOLD Eder
OIL Tie: explorer416, Feruk, My Own Advisor & NicW11
$CAD 1.5M

Here are the standings for all the categories:

2013 Rankings

Thank you to all participants for your predictions. Looking forward to your participation for 2014.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Wow was I ever wrong on gold & oil lol


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