# Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH.TO)



## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

I am thinking of buying FFH.to on Monday

-Great management team, amazing foresight into the housing bubble, willing to be very selective in its holdings and make contrarian plays. 
-A value investing approach compared to Buffet
-Trading at 1.1 book value, low debt, one of the few dividend growth stocks not trading near a 52 week high, (and I can't seem to find a good reason why).
-Good dividend and growing

Researching, I've found many that believe it to be undervalued for it's holdings and recent performance. In fact, to me it seems like it's an equity that doesn't come up a lot in discussions of solid Canadian stocks. Is there a reason why its under the radar a bit?

Thoughts?


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Last quarter their earnings estimate was $9.44/share, they made a whopping $-18.43/share. That's probably the biggest miss I've ever seen. No need to analyze any numbers after that. Not to mention the annoyingly high share price and that they only pay their dividend once per year.


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

I can't seem to find any good info on why they missed earnings by so much, and what the issues were. When a company with a good track record and good management team posts a quarterly loss, is it alarm bells or an entry point?

Note: I did think this was interesting http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/fairfax-ok-with-lumpy-earnings-116525238.html


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Argonaut said:


> Last quarter their earnings estimate was $9.44/share, they made a whopping $-18.43/share. That's probably the biggest miss I've ever seen. No need to analyze any numbers after that. Not to mention the annoyingly high share price and that they only pay their dividend once per year.


^ All of this.

I looked at the Q4 Loss, saw the garbage yield/dividend, noticed the high share price and the falling chart and immediately said forget it.

Better places to put your money with less risk.


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

KaeJS said:


> ^ All of this.
> 
> I looked at the Q4 Loss, saw the garbage yield/dividend, noticed the high share price and the falling chart and immediately said forget it.
> 
> Better places to put your money with less risk.


Hmm, appreciate the feedback, still trying to make up my mind. However:

-"garbage yield/dividend" It's 2.7%, that's quite reasonable for a dividend growth stock.

-"high share price" I don't see what affect that has at all. What does that change besides aesthetics? How does that devalue the company?

-"falling chart" How else do you find buying opportunities and entry points? When a stock is consistently on the rise, that means that other investors love it as well. Buying solid companies when out of favor with the masses is more appealing to me than buying when everybody else is buying.

So unless I'm missing something (which is completely possible because I'm quite new at this), the only stain on the company is a negative most recent quarter. And that loss is attributed to rising inflation in its bond holdings. The company was able to acquire strong companies at discount prices during the housing bubble, has a solid balance sheet, excess cash, great management, and a rising dividend.


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## augustabound (Apr 20, 2009)

Banalanal said:


> So unless I'm missing something (which is completely possible because I'm quite new at this), the only stain on the company is a negative most recent quarter. And that loss is attributed to rising inflation in its bond holdings. The company was able to acquire strong companies at discount prices during the housing bubble, has a solid balance sheet, excess cash, great management, and a rising dividend.


I agree with you here. A great place for FFH discussion is the "corner of berkshire and fairfax" board. But keep in mind with that board, most are shareholders of both companies (just something to keep in mind if you find an overly bullish post). The members are about equally split between Canadians and Americans, so you get both perspectives.


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

Yeah thanks I actually found that forum last night and read over a bunch. As it stands right now, I will probably initiate a position on Monday with FFH.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

*Fairfax Financial Holdings*

Does anybody hold this as any significant portion of their portfolio? What are your thoughts on this company?


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## 3junior (Jan 31, 2018)

Hi,

Anyone holding this? Prob a good buy as this might be year we go over $700CAD


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## AlwaysLearning (Dec 8, 2017)

I have a small position that I bought shortly after the US election in November 2016 (after the huge drop from mid $700's) within my TFSA. 
I believe long term it is a well managed highly diversified holding company.
It has suffered compared to other stocks as most of its holdings are in Canada and emerging markets (not as highly invested in US). Prem Watsa seemed to bet against the US market when Trump came in but is now starting to increase holdings in the US.


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## 3junior (Jan 31, 2018)

year to own


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## bleagues (Sep 24, 2013)

Anyone have thoughts on this stock?

In the news today for acquiring a 12% stake in Stelco.

It's also testing 15 month lows.


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Top managers investing for value through large positions in companies that I personally see opportunity in. Seaspan and Stelco :love_heart:
Currently trading near book value and near the bottom of the moving average envelope. 

Works for me so I've bought in but I am waiting to add 2 or 3x position fearing a global calamity. something something something dry powder.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

FF appears to be near a 5 yr low.
anyone got any suggestions on why?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Their EPS is very lumpy https://s1.q4cdn.com/579586326/file...vers_Fairfax-Financial-full-Annual-Report.pdf depending on the big bets that Prem Watsa makes. Notice their EPS has generally gone nowhere over 10 years.


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## fireseeker (Jul 24, 2017)

The heart of the company is insurance, I believe.
As a business, insurance doesn’t work very well with rock-bottom interest rates.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Looking at this today, the insider buying also looks good.

Thoughts?


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

fireseeker said:


> The heart of the company is insurance, I believe.
> As a business, insurance doesn’t work very well with rock-bottom interest rates.


I bought some of their 5% Rate Reset pfd yielding 6.5% and will reset in 5 yrs at about 4% + GOC5. Somehow feel more secure with this than their straight equity.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I have only had the balls to buy a corporate bond from FFH. It's kind of a wild west experience in my opinion.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

I pulled the trigger at 384 & change yesterday.
We'll see how this goes.

The thing is the valuation looks good, and Watsa is capable, and betting on himself.
The description of "The Canadian Berkshire" I think is appropriate.

Next on my list is BAM & more BIP. 

These guys have proven histories of picking good investments, and they're got the management teams and resources to support those investments, in ways your typical mutual fund can't.

I also have decades until I get money from my LIRA...


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

I pulled the trigger at 384 & change yesterday.
We'll see how this goes.

The thing is the valuation looks good, and Watsa is capable, and betting on himself.
The description of "The Canadian Berkshire" I think is appropriate.

Next on my list is BAM & more BIP. 

These guys have proven histories of picking good investments, and they're got the management teams and resources to support those investments, in ways your typical mutual fund can't.

I also have decades until I get money from my LIRA...


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## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

I have had five years or more at ffh in the past. It worked, but nothing stunning. So I moved the money elsewhere. 
Maybe time to watch this one again.


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