# Sell everything?



## Romy (Jan 14, 2015)

Royal Bank of Scotland encourages investors to "sell everything" and that we're heading toward a "cataclysm." :hopelessness: What are your thoughts? Are we heading into another 2008-style crisis (or something even worse)? I have a longish timeframe for when I'll need my money -- probably 7+ years, maybe even 10-15 years. Sell everything now? Or just stop looking and ride it out? What are you doing about the recent turbulence?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

> What are you doing about the recent turbulence?


just stop looking and ride it out


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Not selling. Reinvesting now.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

My Own Advisor said:


> Not selling. Reinvesting now.


my strategy as well, been adding to positions, looking to buy some stuff I've been watching, I'm sitting on some cash, but I'll buy in dribs and drabs all the way to the bottom if I can manage to keep to my strategy


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

If you don't need the money for another 7 years you might be able to sell near the lows though it would not surprise me to see the 09 lows taken out as early as the fall of 2016. About 7 years from now looking for a major low even the cow is predicting 7 lean years ( 2 cows were born with 7 each on their heads)This year is a super Shemitah year with the potential Mars/Uranus crash cycle in effect into Dec 2016.

I like The Royal bank of Scotland call it is different then most are saying so it shows they have been thinking. Dow theory as of now indicates to not be long stocks.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

If you didn't sell some, take profits when that train was barreling down the tracks for the last 2 years you better ride it out.

For me it's buy buy buy I'm just looking for a reason.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I'm loving the doomsday rhetoric currently spouting from every media...it means it is time to buy while the lemmings sell. (I don't think we need to rush to buy though...unless rumors of an emergency OPEC meeting are true)


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Holding my Maw104 Mawer Balanced Fund for a long term investment, not stocks currently with my last trade selling WCP at $8.01 last week.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

In my view the topics of sell everything or not need to be couched in terms of value (not price), and market action. If your stocks are over valued, and market action is poor, consider selling. 

This guy here:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/if...r-it-probably-is-a-bear-2016-01-14?link=MW_TD

knows what he is talking about concerning market action.


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## Taraz (Nov 24, 2013)

Pluto said:


> In my view the topics of sell everything or not need to be couched in terms of value (not price), and market action. If your stocks are over valued, and market action is poor, consider selling.
> 
> This guy here:
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/if...r-it-probably-is-a-bear-2016-01-14?link=MW_TD
> ...


If oil makes it down to $20 a barrel, I will borrow money to invest more.


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## Sasquatch (Jan 28, 2012)

newfoundlander61 said:


> Holding my Maw104 Mawer Balanced Fund for a long term investment, not stocks currently with my last trade selling WCP at $8.01 last week.


Right On !!!! All my investments are in MAW 104, 105 and 120. I'm just sitting back to watch the show. No worries here


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## Siwash (Sep 1, 2013)

I would sell you're house, at least if you live in Van or TO! Talk about overvalued assets.... there's one that should be popping at some point soon if this ecn keeps floundering....


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

As it turns out "Selling Everything" would have been a good idea. But too late now? Maybe not, but it's hard to do. Last recession we bounced back, so will wait this one out. If the Saudis are smart, they may soon start buying depressed oil companies. Then make more money than they would of from oil sales once we all buy back in as oil and oil stock prices rise again. Seems to me that they are at the controls.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Maybe sell 1/2

Hold the rest,buy back if it goes down more

????


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

agent99 said:


> As it turns out "Selling Everything" would have been a good idea. But too late now? Maybe not, but it's hard to do. Last recession we bounced back, so will wait this one out. If the Saudis are smart, they may soon start buying depressed oil companies. Then make more money than they would of from oil sales once we all buy back in as oil and oil stock prices rise again. Seems to me that they are at the controls.


The last 40 years of gain in the market are going to be wiped out from what I see in the charts. Selling here might not be the exact top but in the larger picture it will be a job very well done.


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## cn_habs (Oct 27, 2015)

Sasquatch said:


> Right On !!!! All my investments are in MAW 104, 105 and 120. I'm just sitting back to watch the show. No worries here


Wouldn't those well-run funds go down as well if that's where the broad market is going? If oil is going to 20 or even lower, wouldn't I be able to buy MAW104 at a good price?


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## Rysto (Nov 22, 2010)

lonewolf said:


> The last 40 years of gain in the market are going to be wiped out from what I see in the charts. Selling here might not be the exact top but in the larger picture it will be a job very well done.


40 years of gains? 40? From eyeballing some charts, it seems that you are forecasting a 90% decline in the TSX and a 95% decline in the S&P 500. That's lunacy. Did you even look at a chart before throwing out that number, or did just pick something that sounds impressive?


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

The market is deeply irrational right now. It happens. This type of thing is self perpetuating. Stocks are trading on macro worries (basically hysteria), individual company fundamentals don't matter at all.

Case in point,
When these China worries popped up again GM shares plunged. A couple days later they announced another dividend increase, buy back program and hiked their earnings forecast. Obviously there is a disconnect between the reality that GM sees on a day to day basis and what the market fears.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Volatility is it not what drives the market

Single investors sell

Big investors come in

Has worked that way for years


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Let me guess, it's different this time. Right?
That line always comes up, every time. And it never is different. Things return to normal, prices go up. People complain about getting gouged, etc.

Things might change, but over a very long period (decades). Not a few months.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Rysto said:


> 40 years of gains? 40? From eyeballing some charts, it seems that you are forecasting a 90% decline in the TSX and a 95% decline in the S&P 500. That's lunacy. Did you even look at a chart before throwing out that number, or did just pick something that sounds impressive?


 From 1966 to 1982 was a 4th wave, the rally from 1982 to may 2015 was a 5th wave rally which is most likely complete. The market should retrace to the area of 4th wave support most often to near the 4th wave low which was in 1974. Take a look @ the CRB chart I posted there is no support all the way down till about 40 years ago. There was a time in history when gold was lower 100 years after a major high. Even the fundamentals support a huge decline baby boomers are past max investing & with drawing funds to live on will take hold.

The market had years of over valuation the extream will go to the other direction. The decade long jaws of death pattern on a semi log chart is still in effect


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## Sasquatch (Jan 28, 2012)

cn_habs said:


> Wouldn't those well-run funds go down as well if that's where the broad market is going? If oil is going to 20 or even lower, wouldn't I be able to buy MAW104 at a good price?


Sure, they'll go down some but with MAW 104 and 105 being well diversified/balanced ( equities and fixed) and very low on commodities, it won't be catastrophic. 
I only have about 10% invested in Maw 120 so that's no big deal either. 
That is one of the big advantages of having actively managed MFs, the drudgery and bother of re-balancing and/or buying selling is left to people who know a hell of a lot more about this that I do and than I care to know. For a combined MER of a hair over 1% I'm good with that :biggrin:


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

CPA Candidate said:


> The market is deeply irrational right now. It happens. This type of thing is self perpetuating. Stocks are trading on macro worries (basically hysteria), individual company fundamentals don't matter at all.
> 
> Case in point,
> When these China worries popped up again GM shares plunged. A couple days later they announced another dividend increase, buy back program and hiked their earnings forecast. Obviously there is a disconnect between the reality that GM sees on a day to day basis and what the market fears.


But what would make GM management accurate predictors? If the' re so good, they wouldn't have gone bankrupt not too long a go. GM/autos are cyclical. Their fundamentals always look rosy at the top. the time to buy them is when their fundamentals are crap, p/e is really really high or none at all, then sell around the time they announce record earnings and dividend increases. 
You can not fight economic cycles. If you do, the cycles will win every time.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

It's different this time.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Sasquatch said:


> That is one of the big advantages of having actively managed MFs, the drudgery and bother of re-balancing and/or buying selling is left to people who know a hell of a lot more about this that I do and than I care to know. For a combined MER of a hair over 1% I'm good with that :biggrin:


 Might want to want to Google a chart of mutual fund cash levels along with a chart of the DJI. Mutual fund cash levels are lowest @ tops highest @ market bottoms. MF scare me because you never know who is taking the other side of the trade.


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## scomac (Aug 22, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> From 1966 to 1982 was a 4th wave, the rally from 1982 to may 2015 was a 5th wave rally which is most likely complete. The market should retrace to the area of 4th wave support most often to near the 4th wave low which was in 1974. Take a look @ the CRB chart I posted there is no support all the way down till about 40 years ago. There was a time in history when gold was lower 100 years after a major high. Even the fundamentals support a huge decline baby boomers are past max investing & with drawing funds to live on will take hold.
> 
> The market had years of over valuation the extream will go to the other direction. The decade long jaws of death pattern on a semi log chart is still in effect


So can we assume that at the very least you are 100% cash? Barring that, how big is your short position on the TSX and S&P 500?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

scomac In 2015 mutual fund cash levels hit their lowest level ever, NYSE margin debt highest ever, largest jaws of death pattern the DJI has seen since inception the pendulum swings to far one way the swing back will be in proportion. Yes no exposer to equities short SPX with out of the money put options across the board mostly Dec 2016. Looking for a one two, one two to the down side to short using TFSA. The big money will be made with out of the money puts shorting @ the top of a wave 2 & selling @ a wave 3 bottom without of the money puts. My top count is first wave down into August with a wave 2 up into Dec high with wave one of 3 down now looking to go short near the top of wave 2 rally that will correct wave 1 of 3 down. Max put on the table is 2% although I do not set a limit to how much that 2% can multiply I let the market tell me when to exit which will be the seasonal low for positions held now.


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

I'm bumping this thread because we shouldn't lose sight of this prediction. If the sky really is going to fall, we will have to thank RBS for their prescience. Here is how things have gone so far this year:

S&P TSX: -- 31 Dec 2015: 13,009.95 -- 31 March 2016: 13,508.98 + 3.64%

S&P 500: -- 31 Dec 2015: 2,043.94 -- 31 March 2016: 2,063.95 + 0.80% 

FTSE100: -- 31 Dec 2015: 6,242.32 -- 31 March 2016: 6,189.32 - 1.08%

RBS said that the FTSE was expected to be hard hit because of its reliance on commodity stocks. One would expect the TSX to be even harder hit then.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

> 31 Dec 2105: 13,000.95


 Are you sure?! :biggrin:


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

Ok, so it was 13,009.95, not 13,000.95. Finger slipped.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Davis said:


> Ok, so it was 13,009.95, not 13,000.95. Finger slipped.


No, it was in 2015 and not 2105 :biggrin: 
P.S. Marijuana is still illegal


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

Argh. I seem to be lysdexic today. :frown:


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Look out below! Gartman announced today that he is no longer bearish.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

The purchase of negative yielding bonds is prof positive that investors can rationalize away any purchase. Daily sentiment Index on Thursday 83% bulls. If an analyst was picked @ random 83% odds of them being bullish based on DSI.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

*How did that ‘sell everything’ strategy work out? - The Globe and Mail
*


> Three months ago, when financial markets were having one of their occasional mini-meltdowns, Royal Bank of Scotland compared the situation to 2008 and issued some extreme advice: “Sell everything except high-quality bonds.”
> 
> ...
> 
> Since RBS made its call to get out of equities, the S&P/TSX composite index has surged about 1,400 points, or *12.5* per cent, including dividends. The S&P 500 has gained about *9.4* per cent, also including dividends.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)




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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

"Sell Everything" - RBS (Jan 11)

Returns since...

Oil: +53%
Emerging Markets: +17%
S&P 500: +11%
High Yield Bonds: +9%

RBS: -18%


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Interesting that the feb 11 article by UK Telegraph was the exact bottom for the s&p 500 for feb. 

Now that markets have recovered, should we sell now?


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Last year I regretted not selling some stocks and ETFs near their tops (because I wanted to, but either changed my mind or waited for a higher price - and they dropped instead..) In particular, POT, VEE and XRE. 

I've been itching to sell BCE for a while, but cancelled the limit sell order that I had for months literally a few days before the stock hit my target price of $60.75. Maybe will regret about it next year, too - along with TD and VTI 

Speaking of VTI... Was very tempted to sell it in my husband's RRSP a week or two ago, together with one of the loser stocks, so profit and loss would cancel each other out. And then repurchase VTI "later". Both keep going up, so don't know whether to bother.. 10 bucks in commissions to sell both surely won't make a difference, and it'll be free to repurchase VTI (we're with Questrade) on the dip - but are we at the top?.. Yes, a million dollar question - well, ~2K in my case 

But no, wouldn't "sell everything" for sure. Just some - and maybe


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## ThisGuyNelson (Jun 4, 2016)

Right now I'm sitting on a few stocks that I've determined to be undervalued and some index funds tracking S and P 500 and some bond etfs. Other than that I'm sitting on GICs and cash waiting for prices to drop in a recession or something of the like that will cause some stock prices to drop. I'm a firm value investor so I'm trying to be patient. :cower:


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## wert (Jan 26, 2014)

Moneytoo said:


> Speaking of VTI... Was very tempted to sell it in my husband's RRSP a week or two ago, together with one of the loser stocks, so profit and loss would cancel each other out.


Why offset losses with gains in an RRSP?


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

Eder said:


> I'm loving the doomsday rhetoric currently spouting from every media...it means it is time to buy while the lemmings sell. (I don't think we need to rush to buy though...unless rumors of an emergency OPEC meeting are true)


It's interesting to go back through threads like this and see who was right. It would seem the level headed guy was correct, again.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

wert said:


> Why offset losses with gains in an RRSP?


Why not?  If I believe VTI is near the top and will pull back later this year and don't believe the loser stock will recover to our purchase price any time soon, by selling both and then sitting with cash and repurchasing lower it's like starting from scratch  But of course I'm also loading up on USD to just buy more VTI if/when it dips, as a true buy&holder, and can keep holding the loser - that just went up a bit more - or sell it and forget it... 

Maybe it's just physiological: losing almost 2K on the stock that was purchased for 3K - and making 2K+ on a ~30K of ETF. 1K left over from the stock if I sell it at a loss and buy VTI won't grow to 3K as fast, but if I sell both and repurchase later - I might end up better off sooner rather than later


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

TomB19 said:


> It's interesting to go back through threads like this and see who was right. It would seem the level headed guy was correct, again.


Whether one is right or wrong is knowing whether you are right (or wrong) for the right reasons.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Well the sell everything call was a good time to buy. A nice contrarian example. 

Now. apparently Marc Faber, a perma bear is tilting bullish. Is that a bad omen for the markets? 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pe...tarting-to-sound-downright-bullish-2016-06-09


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

I used to pay attention to "Analyst Recommendations" (not anymore ) - keep looking at my list of potential Sell/Trim candidates:









and holding... sigh


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## capricorn (Dec 3, 2013)

I sold out of all positions today in my CAD RRSP (IPL.TO, BNS.TO, TD.TO, ENF.TO and FTS.TO) and now have just three positions. 
TD income: TDB622 - 10 percent
Mawer balanced - 60 percent
cash - 30%
will be periodically putting the cash into the other two holding over next year (either quarterly or any pullback).
trying to get away from individual stock exposure for my own peace of mind.
if I can average 5% return over next 15 years, it will meet my target.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

capricorn said:


> will be periodically putting the cash into the other two holding over next year (either quarterly or any pullback).
> trying to get away from individual stock exposure for my own peace of mind.


Yep, that's what I'm kinda planning - to sell individual stocks and just keep buying index ETFs on the dips.. but guess I'm not ready yet - as for me it's more for portfolio simplicity than peace of mind (and for real simplicity I'd need to Sell All and start over - our accounts are really a mess, with the same or similar ETFs all over the place lol)


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Moneytoo said:


> I used to pay attention to "Analyst Recommendations" (not anymore ) - keep looking at my list of potential Sell/Trim candidates:
> 
> View attachment 10506
> 
> ...


Good move. Most of them are trend followers so many end up with buys after the stock has already gone up. Then the stock weakens and drifts lower. They generally hate to say sell, so they change their buy to hold. It is better for people to become their own guru through experience and some reading. 

Basically I focus on tried and true companies like banks, pipelines and telecoms. I like dividend payers partly because a bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

I'm not too keen on broad etfs because they include cyclicals/resource stocks where the dividends can be unstable, and the share prices seem to go nowhere over a long time.


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

I'm bumping this thread again because it is just too much fun to look back on the RBS prediction. Here is how things have gone so far this year:

S&P TSX: -- 31 Dec 2015: 13,000.95 -- 16 December 2016: 15,252.20 + 17.32%

S&P 500: -- 31 Dec 2015: 2,043.94 -- 16 December 2016: 2,258.07. + 10.48%

FTSE100: -- 31 Dec 2015: 6,242.32 -- 16 December 2016: 7,011.64 + 12.32%

This would not have been a good year to sit out of the market with your cash earning 0.5% in a saving account.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

yeah, yeah, yeah.....so, what about NEXT year = 2017 ????


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

In early Jan 2016, RBS advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel. They didn't make predictions about 2017. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears/

Like the broken clock that shows the correct time twice a day, if you predict a crash some time in the future, eventually you will be right. The moral of the story here is that you shouldn't act on the basis of one market forecast.


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## lonewolf :) (Sep 13, 2016)

No one is right all the time. limit your losses let profits run can be right less then 50% of the time & make huge money. Can be right 90% of the time one big lose can lose more money then made.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

2016 did get off to a shaky start but it seems to be 'risk on' again now.


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## Kher-Spade (Oct 6, 2016)

Romy said:


> Royal Bank of Scotland encourages investors to "sell everything" and that we're heading toward a "cataclysm." :hopelessness: What are your thoughts? Are we heading into another 2008-style crisis (or something even worse)? I have a longish timeframe for when I'll need my money -- probably 7+ years, maybe even 10-15 years. Sell everything now? Or just stop looking and ride it out? What are you doing about the recent turbulence?


Bear in mind Royal Bank of Scotland is a bank that made some extremely risky decisions pre 2008 financial crises and had to be rescued by the British taxpayer as a result of their silly investments. This rescue involved replacing the executive team some of which did not even come from investments banking.

So when I hear stuff like this coming out of RBS I struggle to understand which management team was most rubbish - pre 2008 or post 2008.


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## mordko (Jan 23, 2016)

There is only one way to distinguish between the multitude of experts making stockmarket predictions: their level of confidence. 

The more confidence, the more full of **** they are.


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

In about 45 days, the predictions of a real estate market implosion will begin. It will be many of the same people who have predicted it every year for as long as I can remember. If the market really does tank, they will declare themselves oracles of the real estate market.

Predictions are background noise to the objective investor.


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> yeah, yeah, yeah.....so, what about NEXT year = 2017 ????


Jargey, sorry for my delay in replying. 

The answer is the the TSX60 is up 6.23% so far this year to 16,203.13, which means that someone who followed the RBS advice would have lost out on a cumulative gain of 24.63%.

The S&P500 is up 18.80% so far this year to 2682.62, for a cumulative gain of 31.25%.

The FTSE100 is up 8.69% to 7620.68, for a cumulative gain of 22.08%. 

So the lesson is that you can't rely on a lone voice to predict the market. RBS predicted that 2016 would be a "cataclysmic year", not 2017, not 2018.

The sky will fall some day, and some people will predict is correctly by luck, while lots more people will predict crashes in years they won't happen.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

yeah, yeah, yeah.....so, what about NEXT year = 2018 ????


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

Really? You think the world is going to last another year? Talk about irrational optimism....


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## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

I predict predictions of a real estate crash in 2018.


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## new dog (Jun 21, 2016)

Sell everything to what and to where? Everything is overpriced and manipulated and we have no idea how far it will go. 

Gold and silver is manipulated to the downside so they are cheap but then again when will this change?


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## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

I shall attempt to manipulate this post into a clever sequence of characters.


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## Joe Black (Aug 3, 2015)

When I buy into equity investments (assume well diversified like index or ETF, not individual stocks), I know there will be downturns over the 20-something years until retirement, and therefore the "plan" is simply to hold on since short term changes are irrelevant.

I always wonder at posts like the OP's if their original "plan" was buy some investments, hold them for whatever random amount of time until you hear a "rumour" about an imminent downturn, and at that time "sell everything". I mean, if that was all along their "plan" then one cannot criticize the OP since he's just following his investment strategy. Just doesn't seem like a particularly good strategy.


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## bumblebee (Jan 15, 2015)

It's the everything bubble. Something will happen, or it won't.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Romy said:


> Royal Bank of Scotland encourages investors to "sell everything" and that we're heading toward a "cataclysm." :hopelessness: What are your thoughts? Are we heading into another 2008-style crisis (or something even worse)? I have a longish timeframe for when I'll need my money -- probably 7+ years, maybe even 10-15 years. Sell everything now? Or just stop looking and ride it out? What are you doing about the recent turbulence?


Reminds me of the Y2K predictions for "cataclysm" also, never happened. Something to think about. Different reasons but most of these extreme calls don't happen and we all know a good size correction is coming but not likely "cataclysm".


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## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

I track the Buffett indicator somewhere in the low 140% range.

This is slightly elevated but hardly bubble territory.


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## dogleg1 (Jul 4, 2016)

And amidst all the 'stay the course' and 'don't put all your eggs in one basket' advice how does it fit with Mark Cuban's edict that, "Diversity investors are idiots!" Or is he the 'idiot'?


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

2018 hasn't been so good. 

TSX is down 11.97% so far this year, S&P 500 is down 6.55%, FTSE100 is down 11.4%.

But cumulatively since the end of 2015, when RBS told customers to get out of the market completely, the markets are up 9.72%, 22.65%, and 8.17% respectively.


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## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

Davis said:


> 2018 hasn't been so good.
> 
> TSX is down 11.97% so far this year, S&P 500 is down 6.55%, FTSE100 is down 11.4%.
> 
> But cumulatively since the end of 2015, when RBS told customers to get out of the market completely, the markets are up 9.72%, 22.65%, and 8.17% respectively.


Plus, these numbers generally exclude dividends, meaning they understate returns.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Davis said:


> 2018 hasn't been so good.
> 
> TSX is down 11.97% so far this year, S&P 500 is down 6.55%, FTSE100 is down 11.4%.
> 
> But cumulatively since the end of 2015, when RBS told customers to get out of the market completely, the markets are up 9.72%, 22.65%, and 8.17% respectively.




hey Davis best holiday wishes & happy new year to you!

re sell everything, now is the time to sell OTM call options if you own any stocks that look peakish but are slipping now. It's a bit late to sell calls but it's not too late. Vol premiums are still there.

otherwise it's a standstlll. No sells. No buys. Be grateful if your dividends are stable & reliable. 

i was interested to see recently that a trio consisting of canada pension plan IB, ONEX & blackstone are buying Alcoa, the aluminum company of america. It's a gamble by those pros that commodity markets are bottoming. I'm not into racy positions like pros with bottomless pockets; but it's a cheerful note to see.

markets, after all, always come back


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

There was a time you would get dinner and drinks before this type of violation would happen to you. lol.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> markets, after all, always come back


There is no guarantee of this. Historically it's true, in the US, but that's just one country and it was going through the greatest economic expansion in world history. Results from other countries are far sketchier and _good quality stock return data doesn't exist before about 1970_. This is why US stock return data is used for just about all retirement planning.

All in all... stocks are risky. They don't ever assure you any return, period. Historically they _have_ provided good returns, if you believe that future stock returns will be a lot like past US returns (which is a big assumption). But even when stocks act the expected way, an investor can still easily go 10 or 20 years with poor returns. That's assuming they have the tenacity to stick with poor stock returns for that long, and most people don't.

I'm 30% stocks.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

I certainly won't be selling everything, my portfolio currently churns out $42k in dividends per year and is tax efficient. The figure is far more reliable than the direction of asset prices in the next 12 months.


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## Mookie (Feb 29, 2012)

CPA Candidate said:


> I certainly won't be selling everything, my portfolio currently churns out $42k in dividends per year and is tax efficient. The figure is far more reliable than the direction of asset prices in the next 12 months.


Same here - my dividends just keep steadily rising, even as share prices take a roller coaster ride.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

CPA and Mookie: care to share some of the holdings that you currently have in your portfolios?


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## Mookie (Feb 29, 2012)

jargey3000 said:


> cpa and mookie: Care to share some of the holdings that you currently have in your portfolios?


rbf1018, xre, bce, bmo, zwu, ry, t, bns, td, zdj, vxc, bpf.un


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

its good to have james around to challenge the conventional wisdom and inspire people to rethiink their strategy. No doubt stocks are risky, but some have less risk than others. And when I look at the socalled canadian essentials, 
BNS, CNR, CP, CU, EMA, ENB, FTS, RY, TD, TRP, and ask myself, what would have to happen for all these to stop paying dividends and go permanently south on me all at once? Its not impossible, but it just doesn't seem very probable. 

That's why these days, I'm itching to buy more, although it seems a bit too early.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Totally agree Pluto. Looking forward to TFSA room soon! Thinking AQN and BNS would be great. Might get some CNR in RRSP in coming weeks if goes lower than $98.


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## MarcoE (May 3, 2018)

CPA Candidate said:


> I certainly won't be selling everything, my portfolio currently churns out $42k in dividends per year and is tax efficient. The figure is far more reliable than the direction of asset prices in the next 12 months.


Dumb newbie question. How are the amount of dividends calculated? Are they based on the number of shares you own? Or the market value of those shares?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Dividend is a fixed amount per share.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> i was interested to see recently that a trio consisting of canada pension plan IB, ONEX & blackstone are buying Alcoa, the aluminum company of america. It's a gamble by those pros that commodity markets are bottoming. I'm not into racy positions like pros with bottomless pockets; but it's a cheerful note to see.


Rio Tinto (owns Alcan now, Canadian aluminum) is yielding 6.45 divvie. Too bad it's an ADR now. Canadian aluminum was caught in the tariff war crossfire


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

And for 2019 so far this year, TSX is up 19.20%, S&P 500 is up 26.40%, FTSE100 is up 8.90%.

But cumulatively since the end of 2015, when RBS told customers to get out of the market completely, the markets are up 30.78%, 55.03%, and 17.80% respectively.

And these returns do not include dividends.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

m3s said:


> Rio Tinto (owns Alcan now, Canadian aluminum) is yielding 6.45 divvie. Too bad it's an ADR now. Canadian aluminum was caught in the tariff war crossfire


Do you have a problem with it being an ADR? I actually own the ADR in my RRIF along with several other ADRs.

Regarding aluminum production, which is energy intensive, I see that carbon free aluminum is now available! Apple bought first batch earlier this month: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...um-from-alcoa-rio-tinto-venture-idUSKBN1Y91RQ


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## lonewolf :) (Sep 13, 2016)

Davis said:


> And for 2019 so far this year, TSX is up 19.20%, S&P 500 is up 26.40%, FTSE100 is up 8.90%.
> 
> But cumulatively since the end of 2015, when RBS told customers to get out of the market completely, the markets are up 30.78%, 55.03%, and 17.80% respectively.
> 
> And these returns do not include dividends.


 The call could still be a good call in the long term. If we put in a once in a life time top missing a few years years of profit is better then over staying your welcome & losing 90%. Also many players that make money in the market their indicators might say short a few minutes latter they could reverse & go long.


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## Davis (Nov 11, 2014)

lonewolf :) said:


> The call could still be a good call in the long term. If we put in a once in a life time top missing a few years years of profit is better then over staying your welcome & losing 90%. Also many players that make money in the market their indicators might say short a few minutes latter they could reverse & go long.


The call was not for a correction "in the long term". It was for a catastrophic crash in 2016. That never came. 

A call for a correction "some time in the future", would nor be reported on, just like a weather forecaster who predicts snow "today or tomorrow m or maybe some other day". 

A 90% correction? Really? That hasn't happened in 80 years. That seems like a hysterical and irrelevant suggestion.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

hey Davis happy holidays to you & yours


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