# Gold Stocks Are Cheap



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Gold stocks are unloved oversold and staying down despite the great performance of gold itself over the past couple of years. This kind of shakeout and correction also happened during the great bull market in the 70's for gold stocks. Now that we are getting close to summer I believe now is the time to get them cheap before the next big run or will interest rates climb and stop this from happening. Somehow I don't think interest rates can climb much without really hurting the economy. 

Sure some of you here would say buy SU but SU has had its party this year and gold stocks haven't and their seasonal fun period starts in the summer. Or is this year different and gold stocks get cheaper then ever and gold falls to 1000 despite seasonal strength coming soon.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

i think you are right dogcom, any any gold player to suggest in particular ?


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

larry81 said:


> i think you are right dogcom, any any gold player to suggest in particular ?


You think dogcom is right that SU has had it's party? :tongue:


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

This may be true, but I think you have to buy a smaller company and buy quality. The large caps have been awful and deservedly so.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Kaejs SU will party again but this time of the year is usually not so much fun for it. You can get bounces and that sort of thing but usually not a full blown party. Gold stocks on the other hand are just about to go into party mode that usually starts in the summer so buying now is a little early but will save you a spot at the party if one happens.

Argonaut what about just buying the ZJG to cover the smaller company universe and then if one wants to buy a basket of penny exploration companies and hope one gets hot.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Argonaut said:


> The large caps have been awful and deservedly so.


Exactly the reason I stayed away from them [until a couple of weeks ago]. :rolleyes2:

Anyway, at this time, I like Eldorado the most [for long-term as well as trading]. Yamana was the best player for me last year & I like it for short-term trading.


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## Knight Rider (Apr 5, 2009)

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/17/...er-and-closer-gld-iau-gdx-gg-abx-kgc-aem-iag/


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> Exactly the reason I stayed away from them [until a couple of weeks ago]. :rolleyes2:
> 
> Anyway, at this time, I like Eldorado the most [for long-term as well as trading]. Yamana was the best player for me last year & I like it for short-term trading.



hmmm
i think that maybe , just maybe GBG is starting to look good:rolleyes2:?
and maybe just maybe there is a reason why, but remeber that it may go further low.
do some research as to why:02.47-tranquillity:.
nevertheless prepare ur stomach, just in case.........


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

I can see heavy buying of gold stocks by US brokerages. Bernanke speaks at 2:15pm, an info leak ?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

And Goldcorp just got cheaper as their profit hurt in Q1; under $40 [-4% in NYSE].

But Eldorado/Yamana going up in early morning [NYSE].


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> And Goldcorp just got cheaper as their profit hurt in Q1; under $40 [-4% in NYSE].


Super cheap!
Can't believe it went under $38.5


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Good thing I traded out of Goldcorp and bought other gold holdings awhile ago. Having said that the bearish energy here and in gold stocks is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Even I am having trouble seeing it go up because it only seems to go down. This is the hardest thing about gold is even in a great bull market the declines in the middle of it can be huge and shake everyone out of the sector and I would say that we are definitely on the way there. If past gold corrections like the 70's have any bearing here then we could still be in for some more heavy bleeding after a rally before we reach the promised land.


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## canadianbanks (Jun 5, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Gold stocks are unloved oversold and staying down despite the great performance of gold itself over the past couple of years. This kind of shakeout and correction also happened during the great bull market in the 70's for gold stocks. Now that we are getting close to summer I believe now is the time to get them cheap before the next big run or will interest rates climb and stop this from happening. Somehow I don't think interest rates can climb much without really hurting the economy.
> 
> Sure some of you here would say buy SU but SU has had its party this year and gold stocks haven't and their seasonal fun period starts in the summer. Or is this year different and gold stocks get cheaper then ever and gold falls to 1000 despite seasonal strength coming soon.




I don't see gold falling to 1,000 any time soon, unless they re-value currency officially. In fact I don't think it's going under $1,500 this year, while chances are it will test its all-time high by December. I might be wrong but that's the way I see it. Gold stocks are really cheap, but they might get even cheaper until all weak hands are out.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

It is funny that in the gold, oil, uranium or whatever that there is always such a great need to shake out the weak hands as you mentioned canadianbanks. It is rare to see this sort of thing in the normal stock market like the S&P 500 and this is why most normal investors should stay clear of commodities except for what the overall index gives them in an index fund or ETF. We are all very aware of the horrors of these markets so we like to play them but they certainly aren't for everyone.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

dogcom said:


> It is funny that in the gold, oil, uranium or whatever that there is always such a great need to shake out the weak hands as you mentioned canadianbanks. It is rare to see this sort of thing in the normal stock market like the S&P 500 and this is why most normal investors should stay clear of commodities *except for what the overall index gives them in an index fund or ETF.* We are all very aware of the horrors of these markets so we like to play them but they certainly aren't for everyone.


worse advice ever


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

So blin10 what is wrong with getting your commodity stock exposure by holding the XIU or something like that for the normal investor. Holding to much oil or gold or whatever is very dangerous for the normal investor to hold because of the large price swings shaking them up. What would you or anyone else suggest for the normal investor to do. Sure if they have a lot of money then they could put together their own portfolio of stocks that holds all the sectors but if they aren't using an advisor to do this then they are not the normal Joe investor are they.


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

dogcom: I find your comments instructive. I have been in and out of Goldcorp dating back to $23. My last sell was at $54. months ago. Now it is back at $38. I think it is time to get back in again. Lately the gold stocks haven't been tracking the index very closely which is a concern. How do you read it ?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Thanks for saying that dogleg.

Gold stocks do have their problems which gold itself doesn't have like high labour, political, energy costs and so on so they do have reasons to not perform. But they are so far behind right now that they should start catching up and the junior companies are starting to do so. On the technical side you might want to listen to Ross Clark as he usually has some pretty good stuff to say. http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2012/04/sp-gold-opportunities/


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

Thanks dogcom. I listened to Ross Clark's piece and looked at the graphs. It was helpful. I think I will buy back into Goldcorp today if it is around $38. What do you think? Thanks.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I would probably stick to an for the senior and junior for producing miners because of all the problems each individual companies keep coming up with. That said if you feel strongly Goldcorp will outperform then go for it. I own K which is a producer with a lot of problems priced in and they will announce Q1 financial results on May 8. If I am wrong and they have a ton of crap still to announce then I could take a haircut after the results.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

_My center has collapsed, my right flank is weakening. 
Situation excellent. I am attacking._
signed: ~True Gold Bug
(actually ~Arshall Foch)









http://wethesheeplez.blogspot.ca/2012/06/on-verge-of-historic-inversion-in.html


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Fund list*










Thought I'd take the opportunity to take a picture of a list of mutual funds I follow (not necessarily own) 
when all *3 PM funds* are positive YTD - year to date. (*) Only *RBC Global Resources* is still negative. (*)

A few months ago someone on the forum brought *RBC Cdn Equity Income* (*) to our attention, so I added it to my list 
to see how it compares to one I *do* own; *PHN Cdn Equity Value* (*). It's a fairly new fund; inception Dec 2009

ADDED: Resist the temptation to buy mutual funds based only on "chasing past performance".
If I recall correctly, last year's top performer was *BMO Guardian Monthly High Income*; this year it's middle of the pack so far.


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## Navigate Sensibly (Oct 24, 2011)

Just responding to the title of this thread: I don't think gold stocks are cheap any more, are they? each:


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Overbought in the short term but they are still good value if gold can keep going up longer term and I do think that it will.


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## Navigate Sensibly (Oct 24, 2011)

Except I worry that even if gold continues to go up, gold stocks will once again lag the bullion.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Keynote address: Pierre Lassonde at Denver Gold Forum*

21 minute presentation:
http://www.gowebcasting.com/events/denver-gold-group/2012/09/10/keynote-address/play/stream/5084

In the first 11 minutes Lassonde gives you the bear case for miners;
then he switches gears!

I have one question: why isn't the Bank of Canada buying gold? I have a few theories, but will keep them to myself.









This can be viewed full screen 14 minutes into the video.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Navigate Sensibly said:


> Except I worry that even if gold continues to go up, gold stocks will once again lag the bullion.


so do i but this has to change at some point or the numbers make no sense ... it's worth remembering that with equities like barrick for example, you get a dividend of 1.88% which is at least something, about what i get in a hisa


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## maxandrelax (Jul 11, 2012)

Continue to hold a few gold stocks: SSL Sandstorm (royalty co), YRI Yamana, and Sunridge Gold (speculative), also hold SLW (silver royalty). In retrospect I would have liked to have traded them in November and buy in round here, but I have another job. I believe the gold thesis is still in tact.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

If I was not bearish gold long term I would buy the miners.
in retrospect and considering that I still believe that Gold most likely will have their last bull breath this year I am considering adding some names to my minuscule stock portfolio.
I can wait for randgold at 75 bux for sure.
it retraced nicely from overbought area.
starting to get attractive again
or enter it in stages on its way down if we actually go that far down again.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Maxandrelax I also hold Sunridge Gold as a speculative stick it in the closet and hope it eventually gets far past 21 cents where I bought it.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

now now .
u boys are getting me curious with this junior.
what is the catch here?
is this the PKL of tsx?:tongue-new:
just checked the chart:rolleyes2:


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## maxandrelax (Jul 11, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> now now .
> u boys are getting me curious with this junior.
> what is the catch here?
> is this the PKL of tsx?:tongue-new:
> just checked the chart:rolleyes2:


Not sure of PKL,
Mines mostly in Eritrea. Mgmt. has previous ties with Nevsun; SGC's properties are close to Nevsun's. On the weekly chart it has had 6 weeks of positive closes. Might be setting up for a new uptrend? Needs a catalyst - feasability on four properties done Q2 2013. This downtrend might be breaking leading into this news... but what do I know. I got in in the low .30's and wouldn't mind some more. This and GWG.V (Rare Earths) are my spec mining plays.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

max
PKL is a pickle:chuncky:


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## maxandrelax (Jul 11, 2012)

Ahh Pickle lake. SGC's quite a bit different than a refurbished mine in northern Ontario.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

GWG that is another one I owned in the past and may pick up again maxandrelax.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

its all good max.
GL in ur trades:encouragement:


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## maxandrelax (Jul 11, 2012)

dogcom said:


> GWG that is another one I owned in the past and may pick up again maxandrelax.


 I like the cut of your jib! If it breaks.35-.36 watch out!


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Congratulations Aurizon holders*



> On January 14, 2013, *Alamos* announced that it had commenced a formal offer to acquire all of the issued and outstanding *Aurizon* Shares (the "Offer") in a take-over bid circular dated January 14, 2013, other than those Aurizon Shares already owned by Alamos and its affiliates. The Aurizon Shares acquired in connection with the Transactions were acquired in furtherance of the Offer.
> 
> http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=57214653&qm_symbol=AGI












http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ARZ.TO,AGI.TO|B

*ADDED:*
*Alamos* or someone else may have to raise the price if they want to land Aurizon.
ARZ was priced around $8 in Q4 2010 and shareholders aren't happy with the $4.65 cash offer.










http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARZ.TO&p=W&yr=2&mn=10&dy=0&id=p90814517229


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## Magic (Jan 11, 2013)

zylon said:


> http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ARZ.TO,AGI.TO|B


According to the chart you provided, the second one is being in down trend definitely, it's not  good time to plunge in, absolutely not!


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## underemployedactor (Oct 22, 2011)

dogcom said:


> GWG that is another one I owned in the past and may pick up again maxandrelax.


?? GWG is rare earth minerals, not gold. (I still like the company though.)


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## maxandrelax (Jul 11, 2012)

underemployedactor said:


> ?? GWG is rare earth minerals, not gold. (I still like the company though.)


You are correct. Sorry for the confusion.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

fatcat said:


> so do i but this has to change at some point or the numbers make no sense ... it's worth remembering that with equities like barrick for example, you get a dividend of 1.88% which is at least something, about what i get in a hisa


Barrick yield is now 2.34%........limit downside, dropped 30% LY
Printing money all over the world has to have a repercussion, maybe soon.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Miser said:


> Barrick yield is now 2.34%........limit downside, dropped 30% LY
> Printing money all over the world has to have a repercussion, maybe soon.


i will buy barrick .... in time just like randgold (boy do i like randgold) much more than barrick


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

This piece might interest you miser on the central banks trusting each other and their gold.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...sbank-commence-repatriating-gold-new-york-fed


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Dog
by all means not interfering with your talk with Miser.
u did know that the USA holds the German gold right?
are they preparing for Armaggedon?
i am just asking ur opinion based on the above zero hedge article( i love zero hedge )
it is not only about trust.
i am sure you do know why Central banks hold gold.
it is common knowledge.
If u think that the Germans are moving all their gold out of the USA get ur shotgun and as many rifles u can get with several thousands of rounds of bullets. a generator , canned food , bottled water antibiotics and general medicine and go very far away where the zombies will not find ya.
no pun intended.
just curious


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I don't know how far things will go but I do know the debts are very high and fiat paper is rampant.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Dog
fiat paper will be around man.
Gold will not be the NEXt currency.
It is ok to go long on gold whenever u guys feel that is a good entry.
i am looking at it as a futures trader.
i saw volume today and how it was flowing during the day.
gold is not out of the woods yet.
it is having a great advantage by having the dollar low.
the yen will not be in the toilet either for too long.
that will change sooner than later IMO.
the Euro will go higher and i do believe that it can retest the 1.347 mark.
we are not too far.
at that mark i would short the EURO.
come back here later and lets see if i was right or not.
max pain brother.
i just cannot have the 1.4 mark .
that will hurt me since i am long the dollar.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Short term who knows for sure but longer term gold is going higher unless interest rates go much higher and QE stops.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

short term we are moving sideways.
it is a good swingtrade environment if u have the stomach for volatility.
u are right.
nobody knows the direction aside from the deep pockets.
that is why i am neutral.
i need large moves to get into something.
i am looking at oil right now:rolleyes2:
i do believe that the Fed will stop easing.
they just cannot afford it anymore.
the country is bankrupt.
problem for us is that there is nowhere else to go.
japan will not cure the disease.
china has just resuscitated and they will have a nice rally.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

thenegotiator said:


> Dog
> by all means not interfering with your talk with Miser.
> u did know that the USA holds the German gold right?
> are they preparing for Armaggedon?
> ...


I have no idea how any followers of Zerohedge make any money.


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## namelessone (Sep 28, 2012)

I dont think they are cheap. For example, G.To has a PE of 20 and growth of 10%. I say gold stocks are fully valued.
I was thinking of getting into gold but changed mind.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Magic said:


> According to the chart you provided, the second one is being in down trend definitely, it's not good time to plunge in, absolutely not!


Trend depends on the time period looked at.
In the short-term it's definitely down.
Longer-term the trend looks sideways to me.

I don't do much trading but this is one I've traded in the past within the range shown. If price goes to $14 I'll certainly consider buying. However, if *Alamos* is successful in buying *Aurizon*, it will not be the same company, and the chart will likely take on a different pattern.

Thanks for the feed-back.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Thanxs for that dogcom

Now why would Germany want their gold?
What ever reason you can come up with.....it has everyone wondering.
Since WW2 they have stored it in the US
Why would anybody take all their assets out of a bank???
Gets ya thinking. Markets don't like uncertainty.

This coupled with Japanese printing more Yen to increase inflation has gold on the move.

Takes out 1700 and I have some stocks to buy


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Eder said:


> I have no idea how any followers of Zerohedge make any money.


 hah !! that made my day eder ... zerohedge is always an entertaining read and i never missed it until i started to develop depression and thoughts of overwhelming hopelessness ... honestly, it is fun but it can bend your mind if you take it too seriously ...

dog, count me in with the negotiator, the fed is out, their balance sheet is now so heavy that they are finished barring a real meltdown, we are now in muddle through phase ... interest rates are harder to predict though we are sitting on the floor so where else can they go ?


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Miser said:


> Thanxs for that dogcom
> 
> Now why would Germany want their gold?
> What ever reason you can come up with.....it has everyone wondering.
> ...


it looks like it will take it out.
good volume today and bulls are trying hard to form a bottom
lets see 
GL to all the bulls that are holding tight
not playing gold right now

jeez 
as soon as i open my mouth the thing drops 5 bux after pits closed?:eek2:


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Eder said:


> I have no idea how any followers of Zerohedge make any money.


Eder I don't follow Zero Hedge to make money, I just read it from time to time. Since you don't like this source I will give you one you might like better.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ld-from-new-york-paris-report/article7360909/


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

fatcat said:


> hah !! that made my day eder ... zerohedge is always an entertaining read and i never missed it until i started to develop depression and thoughts of overwhelming hopelessness ... honestly, it is fun but it can bend your mind if you take it too seriously ...
> 
> dog, count me in with the negotiator, the fed is out, their balance sheet is now so heavy that they are finished barring a real meltdown, we are now in muddle through phase ... interest rates are harder to predict though we are sitting on the floor so where else can they go ?


Fatcat can't they just mouse click in as much funds as they want. The problem they have is trying to balance the forces of inflation and deflation.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

dogcom said:


> Eder I don't follow Zero Hedge to make money, I just read it from time to time. Since you don't like this source I will give you one you might like better.
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ld-from-new-york-paris-report/article7360909/


Sorry I wasn't trying to imply you lose money due to following Zerohedge ... its just that I drop in there from time to time and it seems like Jim Jones & his disciples all trying hard to make new flavors of coolaid. I think they already have missed the best part of this bull market therefore my comment.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

i am not here to defend dogcom ( i am sure he can defend himself)
nevertheless zero hedge has good articles.
it does not mean one has to follow it.
if u rode the rally enjoy it because it will not last much longer.
do u think this mkt can keep closing up in the last half hour while trading on red all day?
i wonder what would that mean EDER.
how is ur ECA by the way?:rolleyes2:


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Fatcat can't they just mouse click in as much funds as they want. The problem they have is trying to balance the forces of inflation and deflation.


balancing inflation and deflation is one of their mandates along with employment

it is my understanding that housing is now considered to be fully in recovery albeit very slow and unemployment is creeping down

i think the idea of "just clicking" money in is a little oversimplified

QE is always heavily weighted with political concerns since it can have such a profound effect (and potentially lethal effect if done wrong) on inflation so i don't think they do it lightly and certainly try not to do it if possible

especially since they have already injected so much

i believe that _the bernank_ is one who thinks that the great depression was improperly handled by insufficient quantitative easing but i am sure he understands the risks of runaway inflation which is something that goldbugs are freaked out by ... correct ?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

thenegotiator said:


> 1. u did know that the USA holds the German gold right?
> 2. why Central banks hold gold....it is common knowledge.


I like gold/pop quizzes [& pop music as well]. :biggrin:

*1. *Yes, about 1/2 their reserves & Deutsche Bundesbank has the other 1/2. Germany has the 2nd largest holdings after the US of A of course [latter = bonus response, lol]. 

And do you know its location? 'Stored in the fifth sub-floor of the bank's building on Liberty Street, 25 meters (80 feet) below street level, and 15 meters below sea level. According to the bank's website, the vault rests on the bedrock of Manhattan Island.' 

*2.* IDK, 4 safety? Not common-knowledge I don't think. 

Remember this exchange between Bernanke & Paul? Go to the 4:31 minute. :chuncky:

http://www.rawstory.com/rawreplay/2...o-central-banks-hold-gold-bernanke-tradition/


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Eder said:


> Sorry I wasn't trying to imply you lose money due to following Zerohedge ... its just that I drop in there from time to time and it seems like Jim Jones & his disciples all trying hard to make new flavors of coolaid. I think they already have missed the best part of this bull market therefore my comment.


No problem Eder I just wanted to make sure everyone knew I wasn't some kind of nut just following Zero Hedge or whoever as the only way to go, so the comment wasn't really directed at you. I make up my own mind on stuff and take responsibility for all my decisions.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

*dogcom:* it's interesting & fun reading a lot of stuff, isn't it? Of course it doesn't mean we follow everything we read, but there is always a thing or two 2 learn.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Fatcat the Fed can make as much money as it wants and create hyper-inflation, but clearly they don't want that, so your right mouse clicking is a little oversimplified. Still however with debts at critical levels the US couldn't handle interest rates going up very far for very long. So if the economy improves a little how can they raise rates and still pay the deficit. Printing is the way to go and can kicking is the best they can do. 

One thing on gold for all the buddies out there is it is money unlike any currency around the world.

http://www.examiner.com/article/dol...rrency-as-china-begins-to-sell-oil-using-yuan

As you can see at some point the US dollar could just go away or become worth much less but that is not going to happen with gold or silver.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> *dogcom:* it's interesting & fun reading a lot of stuff, isn't it? Of course it doesn't mean we follow everything we read, but there is always a thing or two 2 learn.


You hit the nail on the head T.Gal as you read stuff you take tidbits away and you do become more aware of the world around you. If you just put your head in the sand and stick to your beliefs no matter the signs you could get nailed. Look how well diversification worked in the 2008 crisis. People believed that diversification was as solid as concrete and almost untouchable. If however you looked at signs and read different material you may have protected yourself better. 

Back in 2008 I moved mostly to Monthly income funds and cash so I didn't get hit like everyone else did because of what I was reading and seeing. Right now we are seeing an unhealthy flight to junk bonds.

http://www.asianinvestor.net/News/328415,is-high-yield-debt-overpriced.aspx


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> I like gold/pop quizzes [& pop music as well]. :biggrin:
> 
> *1. *Yes, about 1/2 their reserves & Deutsche Bundesbank has the other 1/2. Germany has the 2nd largest holdings after the US of A of course [latter = bonus response, lol].
> 
> ...



i luved the video.:encouragement:

that is a great finding T.gal.
Ron Paul quizzing Ben ... lol.
It may look like he was cornered , but the revelation as to why people hold gold is there.
which is common knowledge for everyone including the guy that buries gold in his backyard.:chuncky:
I also liked the TRADITION part.
location, location location.
that is a good question .
i am sure that the KNOWN location is NOT known though.
did the man land on the moon?:biggrin:

very very good work


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

thenegotiator said:


> i am not here to defend dogcom ( i am sure he can defend himself)
> nevertheless zero hedge has good articles.
> it does not mean one has to follow it.
> if u rode the rally enjoy it because it will not last much longer.
> ...


I posted that I sold ECA quite some months ago after their LNG plans became uncertain. I think that the market goes up till the FED says it doesn't. I don't understand people setting money on fire trying to buck that trend.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

i did not see ur post about ECa.
somebody asked if the CNOOC partnership would benefit ECa.
i was blatant and i said NO.
i guess i was right?
if u sold at profit great for ya.
as for the rally goes on till the FED says it does not i definitely disagree.
the mkt goes higher untill there is buying exhaustion.
the mkt is mostly trading on red most of all these days and ends up higher in the end.
we are getting the last buyers in.
it must be all the people's money influx to get the last what 2% rally?
who knows.
ur comment about zero hedge has no sense.
it is a good source of reading and has a lot of in depth analysis in certain aspects.
their opinions is a different story.

the spx 500 chart is already starting to show rsi divergence.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Eder said:


> I posted that I sold ECA quite some months ago after their LNG plans became uncertain. I think that the market goes up till the FED says it doesn't. I don't understand people setting money on fire trying to buck that trend.


see post on ECA.
wnen did u sell it then?
Kitimat is not finished yet:biggrin:


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## maxandrelax (Jul 11, 2012)

dogcom said:


> Maxandrelax I also hold Sunridge Gold as a speculative stick it in the closet and hope it eventually gets far past 21 cents where I bought it.


Looks like SGC has decided to start to move. GTLA. Outlook news today - Feasibility study moving along as planned and mining licence on the way. Shouldn't be a problem as Eritrea owns 30% of the project (unless they take ALL the project) :O 

Looks like the big boys continue to consolidate. I haven't seen ABX this sleepy in a long while.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I notice it may be on the move and I also knew they had that feasibility and license thing coming soon that could be good if all goes well.

Peter Grandich got me on this awhile back so I waited until it dropped to next to nothing and then bought it.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Looks like gold stocks are well on their way to a low much like 2008 they could be close to a bottom or breakdown like 2008 to a final low. It looks like the opposite for the S&P as it continues up and up and overbought and approaching a key long term resistance level. One is very oversold and going lower and the other is very overbought and going higher with sentiment for gold stocks at extreme lows and again the opposite sentiment for the S&P.

Looking at the HUI though it does look like a large head and shoulder pattern has formed so it better not break the neckline or we will get our 2008 style washout.

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

I am still long gold stocks and will wait to see how it plays out so I can add some more if we get a washout. If not then I will ride what I have higher.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

dogcom said:


> Looks like gold stocks are well on their way to a low much like 2008 they could be close to a bottom or breakdown like 2008 to a final low. It looks like the opposite for the S&P as it continues up and up and overbought and approaching a key long term resistance level. One is very oversold and going lower and the other is very overbought and going higher with sentiment for gold stocks at extreme lows and again the opposite sentiment for the S&P.
> 
> Looking at the HUI though it does look like a large head and shoulder pattern has formed so it better not break the neckline or we will get our 2008 style washout.
> 
> ...


u did like the HUI hint i posted did u not?
the trick here is what i told ya before.
go back and read what i told ya before.
i think it was you was it not?


here is excerpt from kitco..... a little more detailed .
take ur time ... dissect and learn from it dog

hope the link works
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Petch/20130124.html

GL anyway.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

dogcom said:


> Looks like gold stocks are well on their way to a low much like 2008 they could be close to a bottom or breakdown like 2008 to a final low. It looks like the opposite for the S&P as it continues up and up and overbought and approaching a key long term resistance level. One is very oversold and going lower and the other is very overbought and going higher with sentiment for gold stocks at extreme lows and again the opposite sentiment for the S&P.
> 
> Looking at the HUI though it does look like a large head and shoulder pattern has formed so it better not break the neckline or we will get our 2008 style washout.
> 
> ...


dog
take a good look at the HUI one more time and tell urself where the long term trend is pointing ok.?
i forgot to tell you that.
chart based only.
no chaos or war or anything that may spike gold.
i will leave you this hint.
much luck.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Where is fatcat he needs to be rewarded for staying clear of gold stocks up until now. I was wrong about the amount of selling out there and the big problems gold producers face today. If we can get a big drop in base metals and oil without a big drop in gold then gold producers will be hugely profitable but then again the government can step in to take the profits. Clearly gold stocks are for trading and not for holding. This of course doesn't mean that you cannot make big money, it just means it won't be as easy as I thought it would be.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Wow the gold stocks are heading to the 52 week lows again. I'll be picking up some today


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

webber22 said:


> Wow heading to the 52 week lows again.


Don't you mean new 52 week lows [for some]? 

Interesting/exciting times.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> Don't you mean new 52 week lows [for some]?
> 
> Interesting/exciting times.


I've been watching XGD - now at 15.20. Very low. It hit 11.00 at the depths of the 2008 (Oct 24th) recession, then went up to 28.00. 
Still - it may be a good way to play gold - but I'm such a coward. The only impetus that I can think of that might drive gold higher is North Korea. I just don't know what would drive gold higher! There doesn't see to be enough "fear".


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## nakedput (Jan 2, 2013)

dubmac said:


> I've been watching XGD - now at 15.20. Very low. It hit 11.00 at the depths of the 2008 (Oct 24th) recession, then went up to 28.00.
> Still - it may be a good way to play gold - but I'm such a coward. The only impetus that I can think of that might drive gold higher is North Korea. I just don't know what would drive gold higher! There doesn't see to be enough "fear".


i'm the same way. In terms of an investment thesis, I don't see any catalysts for a run up in gold unless something major happens in the geopolitical landscape (e.g., north korea). it is always going to be volatile, but the trend for gold looks to be down.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Yes, gold stocks are cheap.

I bought ABX at a 52 week low. 

However, the stock has gone down an additional 40% since that time.
That's the dilemma when we try to time the market. i.e. Have we 'really' bought low?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

dubmac said:


> I've been watching XGD - now at 15.20. Very low. It hit 11.00 at the depths of the 2008 (Oct 24th) recession, then went up to 28.00.
> Still - it may be a good way to play gold - but I'm such a coward. The only impetus that I can think of that might drive gold higher is North Korea. I just don't know what would drive gold higher! There doesn't see to be enough "fear".


Some price declines have been irrational IMO & the valuations are incredibly inexpensive. How much lower can they go? I mean some stocks are hitting new already very low lows, lol. 

For the most part, I have traded gold stocks, but at current valuations, it's hard not to see long-term gain opportunities!

Once you make a decision [hopefully a good one], I say have patience & fortitude!

Fear can return very quickly; would not take much!


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

a lot of times (not always) when something touches 52 week lows it will drop even lower to shake off weak positions or stop losses, I never played gold before but i'll be watching it if it'll keep going lower


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

blin10 said:


> a lot of times (not always) when something touches 52 week lows it will drop even lower to shake off weak positions or stop losses, I never played gold before but i'll be watching it if it'll keep going lower


But then wouldn't it then be at it's 52 week low?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

none said:


> it's 52 week low?


Nope, that would be a new 52 week low.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

blin10 said:


> a lot of times (not always) when something touches 52 week lows it will drop even lower to shake off weak positions or stop losses, I never played gold before but i'll be watching it if it'll keep going lower


Bottom fishing can apparently be dangerous. If you are buying at the 52 week low just because it hit a 52 week low, that is. Now, if you were building a position because you thought the equity was a good value and the price fell even more you should be ecstatic. What an opportunity - to buy it even cheaper!


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

dubmac said:


> I've been watching XGD - now at 15.20. Very low. It hit 11.00 at the depths of the 2008 (Oct 24th) recession, then went up to 28.00.
> Still - it may be a good way to play gold - but I'm such a coward. The only impetus that I can think of that might drive gold higher is North Korea. I just don't know what would drive gold higher! There doesn't see to be enough "fear".



There is a lot of reasons for gold to go higher but at this time the western central banks are hitting it down with all their might as they print money at the same time. They know if gold takes off it could be game over for the west. Silver is another one and I bought some yesterday although in paper form because it seems everyone wants to own physical silver which doesn't jive with the paper market. I believe one should have some cash outside the bank as well in case of cyber attacks on our banks and attacks from our own government on our bank accounts. 

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/u-s-banks-again-hit-by-wave-of-cyberattacks/

It is possible the US could use a massive bank cyber attack as a cover for bank holidays and such.

To me something really seems very wrong and not connected to reality today. It seems odd that copper and silver would be tanking as US stocks fly higher on a great economy. Yet you keep hearing such terrible news about the economy around the world. Sorry for being all over the place here but that is how the market and everything feels like for me today.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

jcgd said:


> Bottom fishing can apparently be dangerous.


Only if the fundamentals have changed.

If everything is the same or better, then bottom fishing is almost always profitable.

For example, the fundamentals almost never change with a company like BCE.

On the flip side, fundamentals for a company like ECA or SU can change in a quarter because they are linked to a commodity.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

dogcom said:


> There is a lot of reasons for gold to go higher but at this time the western central banks are hitting it down with all their might as they print money at the same time. They know if gold takes off it could be game over for the west. Silver is another one and I bought some yesterday although in paper form because it seems everyone wants to own physical silver which doesn't jive with the paper market. I believe one should have some cash outside the bank as well in case of cyber attacks on our banks and attacks from our own government on our bank accounts.
> 
> http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/u-s-banks-again-hit-by-wave-of-cyberattacks/
> 
> ...


there is nothing wrong with what is happenning in the commoditty world per se.

nevertheless one should always pay attn to the COT numbers .
if u cannot afford a daily subscription u can always get the weekly final numbers for free.
in hindsight the mkt is doing what it should.
by the way i mentioned to you to glue ur eyes on the gold bugs index.
it seems that u have not.
i know it is very oversold but u do not have yet a clear signal of a bottom.
sure u can try an entry here ... why though? that is the main question .
it solidly breached 50 and 200 dma with a daily death cross.
the bolinger bands are starting to show a bottoming signal in his baby stages though


GL


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

There is a lot wrong in the commodity, stocks and the whole world right now and manipulation is at an extreme to hide the truth from the masses. That said manipulation or not the market price is the market price and we have to go by that and if that means gold stocks go to pennies then that is what it will do whether I like it or not.

At this time however I only have a small position in BTO and a bigger position in silver which I might dump and take losses if it breaks down below $25.00 and wait for a point to enter back in again.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

dog
u cannot think that there is a conspiracy in the futures mkt.
sure there is manipulation ... like anything else.
that is why u do not defy certain trends when they show their ugly face.
i dunno where u entered silver therefore i cannot help ya and try to see through smoke and mirrors.
i preached to ya wayyyyyy back that i was bearish both metals... gold and silver.
the exit signals were clear then.
atm all i can tell ya is that we have a large liquidation ocurring and OI is at its lowest going back a year on SLV.
same for gold OI came down 10% as of last.
if ur trading these things u have to look at what matters.
as for finding a bottom..... that is a pretty daunting task.
as always 
GL


P>S i forgot to mention that not even north korea tensions with US were a catalyst to drive gold prices up.

it may yet .... neverthelesss no one knows


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

KaeJS said:


> Only if the fundamentals have changed.
> 
> If everything is the same or better, then bottom fishing is almost always profitable.
> 
> ...


so u mentioned ECa.
what fundamentals do u see for ECA?

what other fundamentals have changed IYO?
ya got me curious here.
maybe i will learn something new.................


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

ABX sold today for 26.75 at one point. At this point it rivals some solid dividend stocks as the yield is 3%! - mind you - the EPS is -0.67, so maybe not a good choice looking foward. Anyhoo - many (not sure who they are) suggest that ABX is well into oversold territory. When I checked morningstar the "Consider Buy" rating was at 19.80. As negotiator said - not even US-NKorea tensions seem to have an effect on gold's precipitous drop. Weird metal - gold is. Hypnotizing.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividen...op-ranked-barrick-gold-getting-very-oversold/

BTW - ABX price in Oct 2008 was 25.75 - a mere ~$1.32 - from current price. hmmmm.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

i actually have a double bottom at 21.5 area in my chart for abx 0ct 20-27/ 2008
nevertheless the stock is in oversold area together with many others.


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## Islenska (May 4, 2011)

Had an order filled for ABX at $27 yesterday (US account) and just now got some at $26.7 (Cdn account)
With a 3% yield I could hold this for quite awhile, (all margin $-paying 3% interest)
Looked at the 10 year chart and ABX is today is a screaming buy!

Please note, I had posted Apple was a screaming buy at $570 not to long ago----so I know what I am talking about,right!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

thenegotiator said:


> sure u can try an entry here ... why though?


- Because it's very unloved atm, LOL. 
- Because the miners have trailed & been beaten to death practically, not just this week, but for a long time now. To say that the share prices are depressed, is to put it mildly. 
- Price of gold has dropped from the high of nearly $2K in 2011, to the current $1,554; not exactly a severe drop, just under 20%, so perhaps it won't drop much further. 
- Can price of gold go lower? Sure, but we don't know how much lower, and in any event, how much lower could miners go from current levels? ABX for example, is down -60% in the last 10 months. Can it drop to the double bottom of $21.5? Never say never, but my patience has a limit. 

- Companies with solid assets & good production growth, won't disappear nor go to penny territory.
- Waiting to find the bottom never happens, except by accident.

As Ethan pointed out recently, 'some people are not happy with the irresponsible expansion by the major mining companies over the last several years', so 'responsible mining' as ABX would say, is on its way!
http://business.financialpost.com/2...executive-berates-ceos-for-glut-of-new-mines/

That's why, in the gold sector, I have preferred the mid caps, but now a lot looks tempting [for long-term].


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Islenska said:


> Please note, I had posted Apple was a screaming buy at $570 not to long ago----so *I know what I am talking about,*right!


I'll keep that in mind. :biggrin:


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> - Because it's very unloved atm, LOL.
> - Because the miners have trailed & been beaten to death practically, not just this week, but for a long time now. To say that the share prices are depressed, is to put it mildly.
> - Price of gold has dropped from the high of nearly $2K in 2011, to the current $1,554; not exactly a severe drop, just under 20%, so perhaps it won't drop much further.
> - Can price of gold go lower? Sure, but we don't know how much lower, and in any event, how much lower could miners go from current levels? ABX for example, is down -60% in the last 10 months. Can it drop to the double bottom of $21.5? Never say never, but my patience has a limit.
> ...



i luv this lady.
great trader and she knows i mean it.
gold is looking like this?

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=wlt

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=anr&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=clf&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=aci&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

pick ur poison.

as u can see at the very end of my quotes i ask people .... "why though?" do i not?:rolleyes2:
gold stocks are not the only ones :encouragement:


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

today gold had its first test of the lower end of the trading range.
it is oversold.
has the test been completed yet i ask?
is it a head fake?
those are the questions that the gold bugs should be asking.

take a good look at the long term chart trend .
at least a hint can be deduced from it.
as always 
GL to everyone in whatever they do


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

KaeJS said:


> Only if the fundamentals have changed.
> 
> If everything is the same or better, then bottom fishing is almost always profitable.
> 
> ...


u still have not answered my question about ECa.
natural gas rallied 90 cents in one month.
ECA prices declined.

what happened ?
cat got ur tongue?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Let us get this straight on gold stocks.

Gold goes down and gold stocks go down which makes sense.

The regular stock market drops and gold stocks get caught up in it and go down that makes sense.

The US dollar goes up gold stocks drop and that seems right.

The economy does well gold stocks drop as stimulus isn't needed which can make sense.

The economy doesn't do well gold stocks drop even as stimulus is coming huh.

Gold rises gold stocks drop huh.

US dollar drops so does gold stocks huh.

Regular stocks rise and gold stocks fall huh.

I think it is safe to say that gold stocks should drop no matter what.

At some point they will be so low that they can only go negative dollars or paying you to own the shares and then that should be the bottom.


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## maxandrelax (Jul 11, 2012)

dogcom said:


> Let us get this straight on gold stocks.
> At some point they will be so low that they can only go negative dollars or paying you to own the shares and then that should be the bottom.


Max pain has been reached. There were so many margin calls apparently, although I don't know any of these people. I can't believe how badly ABX has been destroyed. Live and learn. I honestly thought that 29-30 was the bottom. This is going to take a long time to get back to where it was. 

GLTA


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

what makes u think max pain is reached?
based on what max?
are u telling me that gold cannot fall another 100 bux in a heartbeat?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Let us get this straight on gold stocks.
> 
> Gold goes down and gold stocks go down which makes sense.
> 
> ...


i liked both of these articles which suggest that gold should be priced roughly at about a 1000 an ounce

when the producers can't mine and get a fair markup on it, it has probably bottomed out
also, based on historical gdp ratios, it should be sitting at 800 an ounce but i don't think they can pull it out of the ground for less than 1000



> Two of the very largest gold miners are Goldcorp (GG) and Barrick Gold (ABX). According to a Forbes article published on March 4, 2013, both Goldcorp and Barrick project "all-in" gold production costs between $1,000 and $1,100 per ounce for 2013.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-fair-value-is-800-an-ounce-2013-04-16?dist=afterbell
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...stocks-approach-with-caution/article11293827/


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

My comments were of the comical nature but you are right the all in costs are over $1,000 in most cases. I am not sure however what the real price of gold should be in a market with money printing going mad around the world.


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## maxandrelax (Jul 11, 2012)

maxandrelax said:


> Max pain has been reached. There were so many margin calls apparently, although I don't know any of these people. I can't believe how badly ABX has been destroyed. Live and learn. I honestly thought that 29-30 was the bottom. This is going to take a long time to get back to where it was.
> 
> GLTA


Negotiator, I was trying to be "punny". re Max pain. ABX is where it was 10 yrs ago.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

cool.
since we want to be "punny"
and i am catching up with the latest news i will also be "punny".
courtesy of nanex.
link below.

http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/4167.html

this is fact. not myth.

that is what happens when i am sleeping .
i do work for a living like i said.
as for ABX and 10 years back what da ya say ?
it is a buy recommendation ?
If i had one buy recommendation today it would be ....... nothing
actually what is really pissing me off is that all this fucking dumb money may migrate to the Natural gas mkt.
that pisses me off.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

max.
by the way.
i noticed u trade gold.
tell me what do u believe is coming after this collapse.
i would like to have a good conversation with somebody in this forum.
even if it is just a gut feeling .
spit it out


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

> =actually what is really pissing me off is that all this fucking dumb money may migrate to the Natural gas mkt.
> that pisses me off.


why does it piss you off?


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

because atm the NG market has been in a bullish trend due to a relentless frigid late winter season.
and yet with so much outflow of money MM's have to move that money into a different market.
therefore they can force a bid till they exhaust their leverage or until a fundamental shift turns bearish.
on the other side and as for the latest report the EIA does not need to revise anything that is below 7BCF that could somehow "disappear" when storage operators send their reports to them.
and lately boy i will tell ya it is happening quite frequently.
where would u put ur money atm if u are a futures trader?
on something going down or up?
either way.
NG is having a tough situation.
we are tight storage and most likely in the next few weeks it is my thesis that the mkt is loose on the supply side.
Ng is an easy story to sell .
it is regional and less subject to worldwide volatility.
now ... do not get me wrong.
if commodities really fall further down investors will pull off their money out of the mkt.
like i said in another post in gold or whatever.
the commodity index funds pachyderms are the reason for all this bullshit while the real traders have position limits... thks for transparency and Dodd frank.
this huge OI that u are seeing in the mkt is coming exactly from this dumb money.
until the bulls prove to me that we are tight YOY on the supply side i will not change my thesis no matter how much i have to cover.
till then all these bullshit from Gs to citi and all other analysts calls for higher prices is nothing that we do not know.
hence the mkt is where it is at.
on top of that the nuke maintenance is also affecting power generation demand because mid con is fucking cold.
capiche


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

Reading your posts is like a giant haiku poem.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I think there must be margin calls going on... the other day I phoned up TDW but got an automated message saying due to high call volume, they will redirect me to telebroker. Meaning that you don't even enter the queue for an agent, they send you right to the automated query system! In all my years with TDW, I have always been able to reach an agent and this is the first time I couldn't reach one (even in 2008, I was able to reach agents)

Whether the pain is over? Way too early to tell. Personally I've never seen the point of buying gold stocks, and I wrote this before. The large caps (and now many smaller caps) have been underperforming the pure metal. If you think this is just a dip in gold, buy the metal or a fund holding the metal, instead of the miners.

I'm a fan of CEF.A for gold & silver exposure. Amazingly long track record. For the first time in years it's trading at slight discount to NAV. That being said, I'm not buying more yet. I haven't sold any of my position, and have no intention to sell gold


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

dubmac said:


> ABX sold today for 26.75 at one point. At this point it rivals some solid dividend stocks as the yield is 3%!


ABX has a horrible looking chart, and the T/A side of my brain will kick my *** if I ever try to put a buy order on ABX. I just can not buy ABX (or anything that looks like XGD, actually)... the chart looks very poor.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

what the hell is haiku man.
i am not into poetry .
i can Google but why bother.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

not that i'm buying anything au related but if i were buying i'd avoid barrick. Pascua lama was suspended several days ago but has been going seriously wrong for many years. Porgera even longer. Company seems to have some trouble keeping CEOs.

goldcorp has highly contentious mines also but none as outrageous as pascua lama.

for the record, tdw is answering phone calls on the second. Like little lambs.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> for the record, tdw is answering phone calls on the second. Like little lambs.


Well, they were being baaaaad when I called them. There were no agents, and no option to transfer to agents, when I called at Apr 17, 11:48 AM eastern


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Humble pie being the option buddy on the board it would be interesting to hear your take on the COMEX and the naked short thing. Don't get me wrong being on the wrong side of a trade manipulation or not is my problem but it still would be interesting to hear your opinion on these matters. To me a massive loss of confidence in paper markets will hit all options not just commodities in the end.

To find out how true it can be is if the spread between paper and physical becomes ever wider and arbitrage doesn't take place which it naturally should.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Well, they were being baaaaad when I called them.



but i thought you were this hi-powered-hi-analytics-stellar-performance-portfolio-hi-value-day-trading-finance-professional client? usually they look after clients like that on the double ...


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I think there must be margin calls going on... the other day I phoned up TDW but got an automated message saying due to high call volume, they will redirect me to telebroker. Meaning that you don't even enter the queue for an agent, they send you right to the automated query system! In all my years with TDW, I have always been able to reach an agent and this is the first time I couldn't reach one (even in 2008, I was able to reach agents)
> 
> Whether the pain is over? Way too early to tell. Personally I've never seen the point of buying gold stocks, and I wrote this before. The large caps (and now many smaller caps) have been underperforming the pure metal. If you think this is just a dip in gold, buy the metal or a fund holding the metal, instead of the miners.
> 
> I'm a fan of CEF.A for gold & silver exposure. Amazingly long track record. For the first time in years it's trading at slight discount to NAV. That being said, I'm not buying more yet. I haven't sold any of my position, and have no intention to sell gold


 TDW lately has been really slow answering the phones. One reason is because TDW closed their Edmonton office a few months ago as a cost cutting measure.


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> not that i'm buying anything au related but if i were buying i'd avoid barrick. Pascua lama was suspended several days ago but has been going seriously wrong for many years. Porgera even longer. Company seems to have some trouble keeping CEOs.
> 
> goldcorp has highly contentious mines also but none as outrageous as pascua lama.
> 
> for the record, tdw is answering phone calls on the second. Like little lambs.


 IMHO Barrick doesn't have a problem keeping their CEO's. From what I read....Aaron Regent was fired by Peter Munk personally because of the continuous under performance of ABX.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> Pascua lama was suspended several days ago...


If you can read Spanish [which is similar to French, lol], read some Chilean papers! It's been amusing reading certain articles and all the offensive comments following, ie: company is full of perverts/thieves, etc.

The Pascua Lama itself is pretty amazing with its [estimated] huge deposits. The pictures/location simply mesmerizing, but then again, I could look at pics of mountains/Atacama [deserts in general] all day long, LOL.

The principal argument seems to be that ABX is being accused of being responsible for the melting of the glaciers/dust/pollution, etc., and it's trying to convince the courts that it's due to global warming.

Chile is known for its huge copper deposits, but this would be the country's [world's?] biggest gold project, and atm, also a key political issue given that elections are scheduled there in Nov.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I don't day trade and I'm not a special client. But I do know that TD Waterhouse was overloaded with calls and unable to pass me to a person, at the date & time I logged


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I don't day trade and I'm not a special client. But I do know that TD Waterhouse was overloaded with calls and unable to pass me to a person, at the date & time I logged



i have no interest in one tiny anecdote even if date-stamped.

what does catch my attention is the way you brag on about being a finance professional & about your fast-trading techniques etc. Yet when push comes to shove you don't seem to be on td's dedicated phone lines for professional & hi-value clients, but rather on the rank-&-file general queue.

if the reality is that you are just a modest retail investor after all, i for one would appreciate it if you would be somewhat less patronizing about how other dumb unwashed investors must stick to GICs plus a small couch potato because they are too stupid & too ignorant to understand anything else ...


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I'm getting really tired of reading your posts, humble_pie.

Show me where I stated that I do fast trading. I don't. I hold very long duration positions, and hardly engage in any speculation. What I focus on is long term money management and capital preservation, and avoiding risk & structural flaws in financial products.

I wrote very clearly that my own investments are mostly fixed income, and just about 8% in stocks. I hold a lot in GICs & bonds. I practice what I preach... lots of cash and fixed income. Very little stocks, tiny amount of speculation.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

well
while i watch my short end of the trade on Ng go downhill I can at least entertain myself reading this impressive debate taking place here.
I have been stopped out at 4.4 .
nothing else to do today but hold my losing position for now.
keep it up boys


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

& i am concerned by people who talk with forked tongues.

most of what you post here is highly contradictory. I've pointed the contradictions out before. Yes you've offered highly sophisticated trading techniques timed to the split second & you know this. Surprising for one who claims to hold nothing but dull old GICs plus a speck of etfs ever since the late 1990s.

you've also claimed to be a finance professional.

alas, some things are not quite adding up.

(signed)
journo grad


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## rusty23 (Jan 25, 2012)

Squash500 said:


> TDW lately has been really slow answering the phones. One reason is because TDW closed their Edmonton office a few months ago as a cost cutting measure.



great so with their record profits as usual they'll finally lower their rates? :rolleyes2:


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

*J4B:* I have personally disagreed with the comment you made under the trading thread: 

*'I think most investors should stick to cash, savings accounts and GICs unless they actually have so much money that they have excess amounts to put into stocks. And if they are going to get into stocks, I suggest they start with the index ETFs.'*

Saying that only those with 'so much money' have the right to invest in products other than GIC's, indeed would exclude the majority of Canadians, not just forum members.

I also interpreted that comment as don't bother learning/thinking if you don't have 'so much money', and just accept the low-return environment & enrich those selling you the GICs instead.

A friend [far from retirement and with 2 year expenses in cash], showed me the pathetic returns she received on a $250K GIC; she would have easily made 2x, or 3x more in solid dividend paying stocks.

No need to trade nor make risky speculative investments, but that's not to say that the only options that most should take, should be limited to the 3 you mentioned, out of which only 1 could be considered an investment IMO.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

T.gal.
it is interesting how a bull board can turn against you in a heart beat is it not?
my question yet resides on the simple theory of imbalances.
is the day of reckoning approaching for the whole market or not?
the USD is still in that squeeze channel.
the Euro is neutral now.
all commodities had a facelift today either from shorts taking their profits or new fresh longs entering the mkts at these levels.
is it all in THE OI ?
it changes... daily.
pitty that i find that the most resolute traders here do get body slammed all the time.
i will go with the day of reckoning . when?
i have no clue . do you? does the guy next to you have the date ?
but when i see a dramatic inflow of capital towards defensive stocks that does make me worry.
thks for ur congratulations on my calls .
unfortunately i have fought a tough tape lately in natural gas.
maybe May will see a change in natural gas prices.
we just cannot figure out where are the molecules going.
as for gold.... my stance remains ... in the long run we are going lower:encouragement:


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

thenegotiator said:


> i will go with the day of reckoning . when?
> i have no clue . do you? does the guy next to you have the date ?
> but when i see a dramatic inflow of capital towards defensive stocks that does make me worry.
> :


Not sure what you mean by a "day of reckoning" - I assume you are expecting a huge market crash?
Why so apocalyptic an outlook - and given that you predict a day of reckoning, why dabble in NG?
It is not surprising that many are buying less volatile defensive stocks in times like these - or not buying at all - the fact that $ is moving into less volatile stocks shouldn't be a surprise


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I'm sorry you guys (and gal) disagree with me. We're all entitled to our own opinions.

My opinion is that the need for cash & emergency savings comes first. This means that I think one should fill up on cash, GICs, savings accounts until they have sufficient amounts to protect them against the pains of job loss, health calamaties, and other misfortunes. My belief is that people should save up 2 years worth of income in the form of near-cash.

That's just my own belief. I personally don't have tons of money, which is why I'm mostly in cash/savings... I'm trying to accomplish the emergency savings amounts before I dabble more into stocks. Hence my very light stock exposure.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

And I realize we may just have a fundamental disagreement here on money strategy. You are of the belief that stock holdings are a necessary core part of savings. I'm of the mind set that stocks are quite high-risk and should only be an "extra" once a person's core cash & fixed income are satisfied.

I believe that, by the way, because of the incredible amounts of fraud, financial trickery, insider trading, government-to-bank secret coperation, and complex financial reporting that's nearly impossible to decipher.

I'm not saying I'm better than you, or that people should avoid stocks while I get rich with stocks. *I'm avoiding stocks too*. I will likely never have the amounts of wealth to invest heavily into stocks. This is the economy we live in... I'm a young professional, costs of living are high, it's difficult to save money and I acknowledge the reality that I'm not a millionaire and am certainly not going to become one by gambling in stocks.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

dubmac said:


> Not sure what you mean by a "day of reckoning" - I assume you are expecting a huge market crash?
> Why so apocalyptic an outlook - and given that you predict a day of reckoning, why dabble in NG?
> It is not surprising that many are buying less volatile defensive stocks in times like these - or not buying at all - the fact that $ is moving into less volatile stocks shouldn't be a surprise


dub.
not an apocalyptic outlook but a reality check.
just like i asked the board a few months ago . what goes down first equities or commodities?
i had a few answers here and there.
the futures mkts participants and the commodities index funds (pachyderms) are the front runners of this whole barbaric action.
how can a small shop compete with an idex fund?
u tell me .
the small shop has position limitations and those helped by DODD-Frank have unlimited ability to do so.
how many times i am going to repeat that.
they will outrun everyone in front of them .
they are a locomotive going downhill at 200clicks/hour.
and i admitted already that one could never see an implosion in gold prices like we did .
as it imploded all metals were dragged together with it.
even oil could not sustain the large impact.
that is my whole point here.
all the money inflow into defensive stocks is IMo a preparation for a day of reckoning.
how low will mkts go is anyone's guess.
as for dabbling in Ng .I was long today and got stopped out.
my shorts i am covering so far.
and i will be honest i am at loss right now in my shorts.
i assure you that the loss is not Canadian tire money.
It has been 9 consecutive weeks of bullish reports from the EIA.
some pros in the arena have never seen so many weeks of bullish prints like they are seeing now.
NG can be regional but when investors pull money out of the mkt NG will not be immune.
I do not think that the attack in commodities has ended.
it just took a breather.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> i am concerned by people who talk with forked tongues.
> . . .
> you've also claimed to be a finance professional.


I don't appreciate your insults. I don't insult you on this board. Why am I talking with forked tongue? I post the truth and am very transparent with the information I post, usually with external references given to articles & supporting info..

I get it; you don't like that I'm bearish on stocks, and that I think Canadian bank stocks are dangerous, and you don't like that I shun bank stocks whereas you hold lots of them. I get LOTS of this anger towards me in my field of work... when you work in finance, there is nothing more upsetting to people than failing to love financial stocks.

The love for stocks & bank stocks is particular is somewhat of a religion in Canada, especially in my field of work. So I'm used to having people angry at me for discouraging investment in these. Yes I'll repeat it: I'm bearish on stocks, I think banks and financial stocks are overvalued, and I think people (including me!) are better off in CASH than in the broad index.

Yes, people dislike bears. Duh.

I'm a financial professional who knows enough about the investment world to know that much of it is crooked, and you have to be extremely careful before you invest in anything. I spent many hours every week reading financial statements. They're filled with tricky stuff, and that's just what's documented.

The investment and financial professionals world is a cesspool, filled with highly motivated selfish people who will lie, misrepresent information, and harm others to reap more profit themselves. On top of it many of them have access to insider information. It is a very dangerous place for retail investors.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> I'm sorry you guys (and gal) disagree with me. We're all entitled to our own opinions.
> 
> My opinion is that the need for cash & emergency savings comes first. This means that I think one should fill up on cash, GICs, savings accounts until they have sufficient amounts to protect them against the pains of job loss, health calamaties, and other misfortunes. My belief is that people should save up 2 years worth of income in the form of near-cash.
> 
> That's just my own belief. I personally don't have tons of money, which is why I'm mostly in cash/savings... I'm trying to accomplish the emergency savings amounts before I dabble more into stocks. Hence my very light stock exposure.



was your answer towards myself?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> was your answer towards myself?


Ah sorry, should have quoted. No my answer was towards

Toronto.gal, who noted that she disagrees with me. She said "I also interpreted that comment as don't bother learning/thinking if you don't have 'so much money', and just accept the low-return environment & enrich those selling you the GICs instead."

humble_pie, who thinks I'm a daytrader for some reason (I never said I was) and is confused about why I wrote so much on detailed market mechanics, while simultaneously bearing bearish on stocks and discouraging investment in stocks


To all, I'm sorry it sounded like "don't bother investing or learning about stocks". I'm just saying that I think cash & savings should come first. I definitely think you should LEARN. I keep saying, read the financial statements. Study the market and be critical of what you find.

And I stick with what I say that the market is full of crooks and parasites, and they are out to get you every day... so it's really a difficult game. Remember that your broker probably trades against you. The Federal Reserve trades against you too, and they pass on their notes to virtually ALL investment banks ahead of public announcements. If you think it's a level playing field, you're dreaming


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> I don't appreciate your insults. I don't insult you on this board. Why am I talking with forked tongue? I post the truth and am very transparent with the information I post, usually with external references given to articles & supporting info..
> 
> I get it; you don't like that I'm bearish on stocks, and that I think Canadian bank stocks are dangerous, and you don't like that I shun bank stocks whereas you hold lots of them. I get LOTS of this anger towards me in my field of work... when you work in finance, there is nothing more upsetting to people than failing to love financial stocks.
> 
> ...



what kind of financial professional are you if u do not mind me asking you?
i am not a professional at all.
i am just a simple guy trying to make a buck here and there.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> Ah sorry, should have quoted. No my answer was towards
> 
> Toronto.gal, who noted that she disagrees with me. She said "I also interpreted that comment as don't bother learning/thinking if you don't have 'so much money', and just accept the low-return environment & enrich those selling you the GICs instead."
> 
> ...


ok then.

all that u said above is nothing new to me .
that is why u have an ask and a bid in any trade.
therefore what is the argument between u guys?
i do not get it then.
i thought everyone here is an adult and capable enough to either play the game or just sit it out.
i prefer to play the game .
i win . i loose .
don't we all?
amaranth advisors is a great example in my area.
they went bankrupt and took all their clients down with them
so many stories out there.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> what kind of financial professional are you if u do not mind me asking you?
> i am not a professional at all.
> i am just a simple guy trying to make a buck here and there.


I'm an independent consultant specializing in bonds & ETFs and I provide three main services:
a) Research, mainly on risks of investment products (e.g. structural flaws, hidden fees, verification and independent calculation of a fund company's claims)
b) Design and optimization of stock&bond portfolios, esp ETFs
c) I manage several bond portfolios (both for me, family, and clients) so most of the trading I do is in bonds, and these are infrequent trades

I spend a lot of time investigating risk, which is why I may sound negative on many stocks and products. I'm paid to discover and inform my clients of the risks and problems with products.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> I'm an independent consultant specializing in bonds & ETFs and I provide three main services:
> a) Research, mainly on risks of investment products (e.g. structural flaws, hidden fees, verification and independent calculation of a fund company's claims)
> b) Design and optimization of stock&bond portfolios, esp ETFs
> c) I manage several bond portfolios (both for me, family, and clients) so most of the trading I do is in bonds, and these are infrequent trades
> ...


ok then.
therefore and again it is my opinion that i already had before.
the bond market is the smart money.
what is ur take on that.
i have been bearish several stocks already.
my question to you is .... if u are so bearish ..... I am ... what are you shorting atm?
a bearish trader /consultant would take a short position right?if i am wrong then forget it.
i am nobody and i do take short positions.
awhile ago i gout out of FB.
T.gal has a much different opinion than i do about FB.
i cannot quantify or give value to that particular stock.
that is why sometimes i do venture certain positions that can go against me .
nevertheless i take risk.

thks for ur reply.
i am not a professional .
you are.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> ok then.
> therefore and again it is my opinion that i already had before.
> the bond market is the smart money.
> what is ur take on that.


I think this used to be true. But central banks are huge players in the bond market now, so all the prices are distorted. They have heavily manipulated the bond market (all that printed money goes into bonds). So I think the bond money is less 'smart' than before.

I don't think you can trust bond prices too much. The risk/reward equation on corporate bonds is ridiculously distorted, which I think leads people to make poor capital allocation decisions. I think corps are very overvalued.



> i have been bearish several stocks already.
> my question to you is .... if u are so bearish ..... I am ... what are you shorting atm?


I don't short anything in client portfolios. The clients' stock & bond portfolios are long-only, cash settled non-margin accounts. We strive for ultimate safety.

In my personal speculation account (this is very small stuff versus the big client accounts) I occasionally short indexes. Stressing again this is tiny speculation, just for fun -- in a nonprofessional context. I had been short XIU for nearly 2 years, went short 2011-05-25, traded around it, and covered 2013-03-05 for approx 5% profit.

Even though it was a soft stop, I made the mistake of picking way too obvious a stop. March 5 was within days of the peak! I got shaken out right at the peak. If I had held the position I'd be at 11% profit now.

Once I get stopped out, I sit on the sidelines. I still think short XIU was the right position and still is. The fact that I got stopped out right at the peak makes me feel even more strongly that XIU is in a bear mode now.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> I think this used to be true. But central banks are huge players in the bond market now, so all the prices are distorted. They have heavily manipulated the bond market (all that printed money goes into bonds). So I think the bond money is less 'smart' than before
> 
> 
> 
> ...



interesting.
what surprises me in what u posted is that u are a financial professional.
i am not.
i disagree with you in regards to the distortion in the bond markets.
lets take away the manipulation. it is there . we have to deal with.
in the end of the day the smart money IMo is in the bonds mkt.
as for the indexes shorts ... sure ... less volatility etc.... 
as for clients by all means better have a safe approach right/
what is intriguing me is the lack of conviction from ur end to short higher volatility stocks.
that surprises me since you must have much better insight than i do since u live in the financial world.
i do not.
this is my part time job.
and i do take it seriously.
as for comments or insults from others here.... i am used to it and i move on.
sometimes i wonder why do i actually post/
i will tell ya why.
sometimes an answer comes from the simplest person that u can come across on earth.
i have my own group of natural gas traders .
small group.
even then we go out to find answers somewhere else at all times.
i will post a recent video just posted in another site.
tell me what do ya think.
it is funny that the guy is VERY bearish about natural gas.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/crude-rally-coming-soon-nenner-113809595.html


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Re: the bonds... I still think it's smarter money than stocks. But I have trouble gauging to what degree the central banks have distorted prices. Take Spain's government bonds for instance. Now Spain is most definitely insolvent. Yet their 10 year yields 4.7%. The market price for Spanish bonds does not properly reflect the risk of lending to Spain. So you can't take the bond quote at face value.



thenegotiator said:


> what is intriguing me is the lack of conviction from ur end to short higher volatility stocks.
> that surprises me since you must have much better insight than i do since u live in the financial world.


Put simply, I don't have the time. To do this successfully I think you'd have to spend lots of time tracking the individual stocks. I can't imagine shorting high volatility stocks without being absolutely on top of your trading portfolio on a daily, maybe hourly basis.

I haven't had the time to do that, so when I do trade I stick to indexes... less surprisess.

It can most certainly be done, though. I have a colleague who has made a killing shorting BIDU. But it really takes a lot of time and I'm not bothering to put in that time... my speculation account is small anyway, wouldn't be worth the effort.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Cash is never meant as an investment...it is a ticket that should be exchanged for real assets as soon as possible to protect against it's designed inflation. If you hold cash longer term I think you assume much more risk than holding equities, real estate, gold, oil, coins/stamps/wine, or even my new sail boat.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Eder said:


> Cash is never meant as an investment...it is a ticket that should be exchanged for real assets as soon as possible to protect against it's designed inflation.


Have you charted XSB against XIU recently? Try it, for the last 1 year, 5 years, 10 years or whatever. I think holding cash (by which I also mean fixed income) is much maligned, but unjustifiably so


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> Re: the bonds... I still think it's smarter money than stocks. But I have trouble gauging to what degree the central banks have distorted prices. Take Spain's government bonds for instance. Now Spain is most definitely insolvent. Yet their 10 year yields 4.7%. The market price for Spanish bonds does not properly reflect the risk of lending to Spain. So you can't take the bond quote at face value.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


alright then
we disagree in terms of shorting stocks.
as for the indexes i was short the chinese index via an etf.
i do short .
i go long.
i take risk.
i think that the bond market is the smart money but i do not trade bonds .
i trade volatility.

did u like the video?
Charles Nenner .... My fellow Jewish Tom Demark.
prescient timing .
as we speak i see the so called 'overnite manipulation" that u so hardly press to say in copper.
actually volume is getting higher and higher electronically.
all yesterdays gains wiped out already.
in the meantime i believe the mkts are up in Asia.
i could be wrong.
the only real time numbers i have are in commodities.
GL


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Eder said:


> Cash is never meant as an investment...it is a ticket that should be exchanged for real assets as soon as possible to protect against it's designed inflation. If you hold cash longer term I think you assume much more risk than holding equities, real estate, gold, oil, coins/stamps/wine, or even my new sail boat.




impressive.
i did not see the USD lose 20% in face value like gold.
have you?:hopelessness:
how is the boat by the way.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> Have you charted XSB against XIU recently? Try it, for the last 1 year, 5 years, 10 years or whatever. I think holding cash (by which I also mean fixed income) is much maligned, but unjustifiably so




u see?
the smart money is in bonds .
is it not?
therefore why are u contradicting urself somehow somewhere?
just curious.
21k cars traded already in copper.
boy they are getting rid of it.
that is one of the highest volumes in metals i have ever seen in my life in the comex during this whole week of carnage


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> u see?
> the smart money is in bonds .
> is it not?
> therefore why are u contradicting urself somehow somewhere?


I didn't totally follow... where's the contradiction? I say cash & equivalents have performed very well (XSB being an illustration of this, more or less same as GICs)

I'm also saying bonds, though smarter money, are not as smart money as historically was the case because central banks are flooding the bond market with money


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Have you charted XSB against XIU recently? Try it, for the last 1 year, 5 years, 10 years or whatever. I think holding cash (by which I also mean fixed income) is much maligned, but unjustifiably so


 James I know your a smart financial guy. However IMHO XBB and XCB seem like much better choices then XSB. I also know that buying individual bonds is a total rip off for the retail investor as the bond market is not very transparent at all. That's why I'd rather get my bond exposure indirectly through the XTR (which is composed of 60% bond ETFS). 

I don't see how you can make any money holding investments such as TDB8150 which only pays 1.25% or 1 year GICS which only pay 1.55%. I'd rather take my chances on XTR and CPD etc. If worse comes to worse and interest rates go up then I can always sell XTR and CPD very quickly.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> I didn't totally follow... where's the contradiction? I say cash & equivalents have performed very well (XSB being an illustration of this, more or less same as GICs)
> 
> I'm also saying bonds, though smarter money, are not as smart money as historically was the case because central banks are flooding the bond market with money



alright.
i misunderstood you.
yes .
XSB is an example.
the poster above that owns the boat says something else.
maybe that is why he owns a boat and i do not.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Have you charted XSB against XIU recently? Try it, for the last 1 year, 5 years, 10 years or whatever. I think holding cash (by which I also mean fixed income) is much maligned, but unjustifiably so


I did chart xsb & xiu - interesting to see the 1 ad 5 yr as largely "flat" with no gains made. 
But I also charted CDZ vs XSB - small gain was made (in price)
and TRP, T, BNS vs XSB - these stocks pummeled XSB over 5 yrs - and if dividends are reinvested, then even more.
I hold GIC's and bond funds (60%), and the rest is a lil cash, and dividend paying stocks that I hope will continue to earn more than the GIC's
I understand your sentiment that the fininacial world is full of trickery etc etc, but companies like BNS, CDN banks (even if they are over-valued!), SLF, insurnace co's, - most established blue chips have been around for a very long time - prior to 1930. Holding stock directly in these companies will fluctuate in value (case i point 2008-9) - but I do not believe that there is significant manipulation in the board-rooms of these companies.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Squash500 said:


> James I know your a smart financial guy. However IMHO XBB and XCB seem like much better choices then XSB.


The risk profiles are radically different! XSB is heavy in government bonds and is only 3 yrs maturity. XBB and XCB are 10 years maturity, and have significantly more corporate exposure.

I noted the XSB performance (versus stocks) because it's a very low risk, nearly cash-equivalent fund that is outperforming stocks. What I'm saying is that even sitting in practically nil risk, you can outperform stocks over time.

Things like XCB carry risks much closer to stocks themselves, so it would be harder to make the point by comparing XCB to XIU (comparing a risky to risky). I'm saying that a SAFE cash-like investment outerpforms the stock market.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

on defense of JB4 .
i think that what he means is that a Conservative approach would be his inclination.
correct me if i am wrong james.
therefore he believes that u make sure u have bread in ur table before u go out there and speculate.
i do not tototally disagree with him.
nevertheless i like adventures in the financial mkts.
Dub.
TRP is infrastructure and yes nice divvys.
it had some wild rides though like anything else.
i find that canadian banks ... so far are solid institutions...always subject to change.
i was beaten up for mentioning TRP 2 years ago i think.
pitty


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

u see boys and gals ( if any is around) the mkt is going to retest the low of 3.07 in copper.
2.8 was the low in 2008 .
we are not too far from it are we?:encouragement:


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> on defense of JB4 .
> i think that what he means is that a Conservative approach would be his inclination.
> correct me if i am wrong james.
> therefore he believes that u make sure u have bread in ur table before u go out there and speculate.


Yes that's what I'm saying. Cash is a safety cushion. The contradicting opinion would that you just invest in stocks, and that's your emergency fund (a mutual fund).

Well fine, but what happens when the economy enters a rough patch? What happens (like in 2008) is that first your investments plummet, and then you lose your job too. Now you have to liquidate stocks at the bottom, to survive. That's a bad scenario and illustrates the flaw (imo) of using stocks as part of your emergency savings.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

removed duplicate


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

James4beach is right the smart money is in bonds. The money is printed out of thin air so their is nothing to lose. The smart money attacked commodities hard with printed money first to protect their illusion of sound fiat money so of course gold and silver were the hardest hit and second to herd everyone into the stock market. I believe soon they will let gold and silver rebound and stocks to fall for awhile in order to give the market the illusion that the market is normal before attacking again. If they continue to attack as hard as they have with physical buying of gold and silver so high they risk destroying the COMEX. 

With manipulation at an extreme in every market including bonds everyone should be very worried because these guys are desperate and trying everything to make everything look normal. No one has ever seen anything like this and stops don't help because they telegraph to the manipulators where they can find the volume they seek. In the end there is no smart money just insider money with the knowledge of what is to come. The days of real smart money may be over except to the few individuals who are just great at what they do.

The best advise I can give is don't borrow to invest as many seem to think is a good idea. Buy value and hold that value in your hands and don't give it up or else you need to trade to stay alive.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

thenegotiator said:


> u see boys and gals ( if any is around) the mkt is going to retest the low of 3.07 in copper.
> 2.8 was the low in 2008 .
> we are not too far from it are we?:encouragement:


negotiator - 
What does this mean to the average Joe (me) - I mean is your prediction (based on copper price) another drop to 7500 in the TSX? (that was what happened in 08). Is Copper a leading indicator?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Dubmac copper is called Dr. Copper and usually means bad times for the economy is coming if it is dropping and the opposite if it is up.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doctor-copper.asp


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

dogcom said:


> The best advise I can give is don't borrow to invest as many seem to think is a good idea. Buy value and hold that value in your hands and don't give it up or else you need to trade to stay alive.


I started buying CEF.A (central fund, gold & silver) many years ago and still hold it. Sharp movements in gold recently don't bother me and I haven't sold any shares. I'm now looking to buy more, but I'm not in any hurry.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Here is another shocker for the bail in gang james4beach from our very own central banker.

http://silverdoctors.com/boes-carne...e-an-international-bail-in-regime/#more-25297 

It might not come to pass but hey it is there just in case.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

dub.
i am an average joe just like u if u say u are one.
i know i am.
good question u ask me.
i always found that copper is the barometer of any economy in the world.
i am starting to believe that this barometer is getting very skewed recently.
since China is the largest importer of the metal , any bad numbers coming out of china will affect copper prices.
on the other hand i read somewhere ( i could be wrong) that GS has a good outlook for the metal.
basically what i am trying to imply is that all of of a sudden the latest numbers that came out of china did not meet analysts estimates.
the latest beating of the whole metals complex started with gold.
once the algos trigger it is an avalanche.
panic?
maybe.nobody knows.
what i do not like to see at midnight eastern time is 26 k cars already traded in copper.
that is a huge eletronic volume on the comex for this time.
pits are closed.
only machines working... so they say.
gold is very very light atm 19k cars traded ... not bad at all very very light
therefore i am not sure if nowadays i can correlate copper with a potential mkt destruction.
i hope that answers ur question


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

James4beach the sharp move in gold bothered me because I was in the CRIMEX but I have moved away from that. CEF is a good fund and should have the gold as promised.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

dog
u are a funny guy man. you and ur crimex 
cheers


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

dogcom said:


> Here is another shocker for the bail in gang james4beach from our very own central banker.


I think these are important developments... every investor has to listen to the message loud and clear:

Do not deposit more than the CDIC insured amount. Uninsured deposits may be lost. This always was the case, but people forget about that CDIC limit.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

dogcom said:


> James4beach the sharp move in gold bothered me because I was in the CRIMEX but I have moved away from that. CEF is a good fund and should have the gold as promised.


dog
if u want gold buy PHYS gold put it in a safe hidden in your house.
not in a bank .
u know why right? bank holydays
it is yours .
guaranteed.
we should all have some .
i do.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

In the house is a problem as well, I prefer the CEF fund and in the safety deposit box. Other then that it is down to having food and water and the usual emergency supplies.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I'm an independent consultant specializing in bonds & ETFs and I provide three main services:
> a) Research, mainly on risks of investment products (e.g. structural flaws, hidden fees, verification and independent calculation of a fund company's claims)
> b) Design and optimization of stock&bond portfolios, esp ETFs
> c) I manage several bond portfolios (both for me, family, and clients) so most of the trading I do is in bonds, and these are infrequent trades
> ...



this is what i don't get. You've said all this before. You've detailed how you are a very important personnage in the financial industry with insights & research so valuable that clients are falling over themselves to pay you for financial advice & portfolio management.

yet your discount broker will not even take your phone calls.

as we all know, the big green has dedicated lines for professional & hi-value clients. They answer those phone calls on the double. If they won't pick up for you, it's because. your. accounts. are. too. small. to. matter.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I don't appreciate your insults ... I don't insult you ... I'm a financial professional who knows enough about the investment world to know that much of it is crooked, and you have to be extremely careful before you invest in anything. I spent many hours every week reading financial statements. They're filled with tricky stuff, and that's just what's documented.
> 
> The investment and financial professionals world is a cesspool, filled with highly motivated selfish people who will lie, misrepresent information, and harm others to reap more profit themselves. On top of it many of them have access to insider information. It is a very dangerous place for retail investors.



oh, but you do. Insult me & everybody else in this forum who owns a common stock, whether outright or via an etf.

i myself am not insulting you in the least. I am pointing out that you have arrived here as a newcomer with a troubled agenda, which you are disclosing on the instalment plan. Nothing about you adds up.

you preach that no person with less than $250,000 saved up in cash & GICs - that's one quarter of a million dollars - can even begin to invest in equity etfs or common stocks. Right away that knocks out pretty much every member in this forum. You post messages to them that are full of contempt. Yet you frequently boast about your own speculations. Every week, sans faute, you brag anew about your trading success!

there's more. You also spew hatred for organized finance & organized financial media. Your recent attack on journalists was nothing more than poisonous foam-at-the-mouth. Strangely enough, you claim to be a "professional" working in the middle of what you describe as a sewer of evil. How stressful this unhappy situation must be for you.

as i have posted before, i would appreciate it if you would refrain from preaching fundamental born-again GIC dogma to others while continually crowing about your own highly sophisticated shorting & trading strategies.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Take Spain's government bonds for instance. Now Spain is most definitely insolvent. Yet their 10 year yields 4.7%. The market price for Spanish bonds does not properly reflect the risk of lending to Spain.


Well, it does, in a sardonic way.
This is because Spain's debt is back-stopped by the ECB.
They will not let Spain (or Italy) default.
The troika will rob, steal, pillage smaller countries and private wealth in order to keep the Euro currency alive.
The market knows this.

If all else fails, they will mortgage their gold, or even sell their gold, in order to keep the currency.
I believe the gold market knows this as well, and that is one of the contributing factors in the recent slide of gold.

Therefore, the bond market is betting that the 4.7% yield is a reasonable return for bonds that are back-stopped by the ECB, the gold of these countries, and in the extreme case, by the ability of the troika to steal and pillage private wealth.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Humble pie being the option buddy on the board it would be interesting to hear your take on the COMEX and the naked short thing.



dogcom i'm not one who could answer you, i've never in my life held any options on physical metal or physical etfs or funds let alone coins or bars. Never have traded commodities.

from time to time i run into a deep underwater rumour, about which i know nothing. But vaguely & from afar this loch ness monster rumour seems to say that jp morgan has always owned short silver, way back into early last century, there is always plenty naked short silver, world without end.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> You've detailed how you are a very important personnage in the financial industry


I don't recall saying I'm important. I didn't even say I have lot of money... in fact I keep telling you that I don't even have enough cash saved up, which is why I have the absolute minimal stock exposure myself. I even gave you my allocations.



> as we all know, the big green has dedicated lines for professional & hi-value clients. They answer those phone calls on the double.


lol, you think I'm connected on the Bat Phone or something? I don't have big enough accounts to matter.



humble_pie said:


> oh, but you do. Insult me & everybody else in this forum who owns a common stock, whether outright or via an etf.


Wow, now this gets interesting. humble_pie what I'm starting to understand about you is that you have some kind of issue with status, social level and what you perceive as the "elite" nature of stock investment. You think of stock investors as some kind of high-class club, and you want to be in that elite club. I am posting my *opinion* (which is that saving up cash is more important than dabbling in stocks) but from this you hear some kind of a rejection, telling you to stay away from my elite circles... go save up cash & GICs, you're not good enough for stocks. You're not rich enough for stocks, like me.

That's what you're _hearing_, but that's your own problem. It's not what I ever said.

My opinion is that saving up cash should come before investing in stocks. If that feels like an insult to you, then you're taking markets too personally. It seems to me that you have attached some kind of self value or self worth, to the activity of investing in stocks & ETFs.

I'll say it again. I'm not important; I don't have a lot of money. I like numbers and markets interest me. I barely have enough cash for myself, so I focus on fixed income investments and I have minimal stock investments. I don't think stocks are any more appropriate for me than they are for you. I am NOT better than you. I am NOT richer than you. Get a grip.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> there's more. You also spew hatred for organized finance & organized financial media. Your recent attack on journalists was nothing more than poisonous foam-at-the-mouth.


I am very critical of organized finance. I think it's riddled with criminal behaviour, and they routinely get away with crimes... go unpunished, unjailed. The average employee at Goldman Sachs is currently getting paid over $500k a year. Their company has gone entire months at times with zero losing trades. Now you tell me, where are all their salaries coming from? Is that GS employee adding $500k/year value to the world? No... they are parasites. They have insider info, they rig markets, they have privvy information from the Federal Reserve and US Treasury. They're stealing wealth from us all.

I think journalists aren't doing their jobs. The ones in the mainstream media are useless. Did journalists tell you about the fraud at Fannie Mae? Did they tell you Countrywide Financial was crooked? Did they tell you Citigroup and Bank of America were hyperleveraged and prone to collapse? Any cursory examination of the companies would have revealed these stories.

But no. Journalists said nothing. These companies collapsed, investors got wiped out, taxpayers took on huge additional burdens. You want me to applaud those journalists?

Now we have a heavily leveraged banking system in Canada, but again, journalists don't say a word. There's a lot of risk that never goes mentioned in the media. This is unfair to investors.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

james4beach said:


> 1. Cash is a safety cushion.
> 2. The contradicting opinion would that you just invest in stocks, and that's your emergency fund (a mutual fund).


*1.* Of course, cash is king, nobody would argue that! 

I most certainly believe in having an emergency fund/cash {IMO, a minimum 1 yr. salary would be preferable as finding a job can take a long time for some}/guaranteed investments/savings.

*2.* That statement is totally inaccurate! I never said that one should be invested 100% in risky investments. You, on the other hand are pretty much saying the opposite, ie: invest 100% in guaranteed investments and nothing else unless you have a 2 year salary saved up: 

*'Do YOU have 200K in cash & savings accounts? Probably not.... I would argue that you shouldn't be dabbling in any stocks or mutual funds until you have that kind of cash saved up.'
*
- a lot of Canadians don't need $100k for yearly expenses, and those that do, probably have high enough salary and enough savings, or at least the means, if not the ability to do so. 

- considering that most people don't wait until retirement to buy a car & home/get married/have children/live a life, etc., at what age do you reckon people would have saved that $200K to start dabbing in stocks, 50, 60, 70? So you see, what you are actually saying, is that most people should never invest in stocks, and not even The Royal Mail would agree with you I don't think!

You actually went as far as saying that only those that have $300K to $500K belong in the stock market. I wonder what's the average age of your clients & what they do for a living.

Thank goodness that friend I mentioned, that invested $250K in a GIC, did the same with stocks; she put $250K in Canadian banks in same time period [divided equal amount into 5 banks], and so, stock appreciation aside, as she won't need that money for several years [27 years if she retires at 67], she could clearly see that GICs won't take her where she wants to be at retirement.

I see that currently, a one year GIC rates = about 1.3%, and 10 years = 2.3%, and that is whether you invest $1K or $5M.

The CDN banks currently pay an average of 4.5% dividend yield.

You talk about corruption, fraud, etc., and I agree to a great extent, but tell me, if an investor [if you can call it that], makes 1.3% with a 1 yr. GIC, what do the investment institutions make on that? As someone wrote, you can't beat them, so why not join them then?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

james4beach said:


> 1. it's difficult to save money....
> 2. I'm not a millionaire and am certainly not going to become one by gambling in stocks.


*1.* Isn't this a bit of a contradictory post? On the one hand you're saying that folks should save $200K/2 years salary, and now you acknowledge that that is not so easy to do.

*2.* Is that what you think of stock investors here, that we're all gamblers & just trying to become millionaires that way?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4 do stop blithering on about what-you-think-i-think. In reality, you have no clue.

what i think is exactly what i said. I find you offensive. Even worse, slippery & untruthful. 

first you tout your professional "clients." Then you have this to say: " I don't have big enough accounts to matter."

so, which is it? the hotshot advisor with the "big client accounts," as you describe them? or the novice beginner advisor who's trolling here in cmf forum in a crude attempt to find more business??



james4beach said:


> ... The clients' stock & bond portfolios are long-only, cash settled non-margin accounts ... [these are] big client accounts


there's also the possibility that you are a shill for some organism in the etf industry. You arrived here recently along with a new & noisy squadron of highly aggressive etf couch potato proselytizers.

with one exception - a most gracious & knowledgeable etf theorist who posted here briefly but subsequently departed - the members of this new fundamentalist etf propaganda squad have not been successful here. Certainly your own personal language in this forum conveys contempt for many others plus disrespect for the financial environment in which you say you work.

do i think the etf industry is desperate enough to send shills to social finance media to spout propaganda? yes, i do think. The traditional mutual fund industry is dying like beached whales. All the $$$ it previously managed - the gigabillions - are floating loose. Its successors, the etf fund families, are out to seize all this managed capital in a smooth transition. It's a fierce struggle.

so no, i don't think you are posting here out of the goodness of your heart. If you were, you would not be so disrespectful.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> *2.* That statement is totally inaccurate! I never said that one should be invested 100% in risky investments. You, on the other hand are pretty much saying the opposite, ie: invest 100% in guaranteed investments and nothing else unless you have a 2 year salary saved up:


Ok, thanks for correcting me regarding your post. Point taken.



> *'Do YOU have 200K in cash & savings accounts? Probably not.... I would argue that you shouldn't be dabbling in any stocks or mutual funds until you have that kind of cash saved up.'
> *
> - a lot of Canadians don't need $100k for yearly expenses


I'm guilty of throwing out numbers from rough estimates in my head, without spelling out my assumptions. That's my mistake. I was figuring based on a dual income household, and I figured the household income would be 100K (maybe 50K per spouse). And I believe a household should save 2 years of salary, so 2 x 100K = 200K of savings.

If you're one person acting alone, and your income is 30K, then I think 60K is a healthy amount of savings.

Do I have that much (2 years income) of savings? No. So I am still working on building up that amount of cash, savings, GICs.



> So you see, what you are actually saying, is that most people should never invest in stocks, and not even The Royal Mail would agree with you I don't think!


Look, it's not my fault that in our current economy, our salaries are too low and our expenses (housing etc) are too high. I agree that it's virtually impossible to save up enough money. Don't blame me for that.

I'm giving you my opinion and my rule of thumb for savings and cash cushion. I don't adjust my rule of thumb to account for the fact that the economy sucks, we are all underpaid, and the cost of living is too high. It just means that certain things are infeasible... saving up "enough money" is infeasible.

Again don't blame me for that. Blame the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada for under-stating CPI, and the politicians that brought you globalization and drove down your (and my) wages.



> You actually went as far as saying that only those that have $300K to $500K belong in the stock market. I wonder what's the average age of your clients & what they do for a living.


Most of my clients don't have enough money to be speculating in stocks safely. I warn them and give my opinion that stocks may not be right for them, and they want to proceed anyway. I give the disclaimer and then we proceed.

Once the next market crash comes, they will probably realize that indeed they shouldn't have put so much of their essential money into stocks. That's their decision to make though.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Isn't this a bit of a contradictory post? On the one hand you're saying that folks should save $200K/2 years salary, and now you acknowledge that that is not so easy to do.


I'm saying that I recommend saving 2 years salary. I'm also saying that it's difficult (or nearly impossible) to do in Canada.

That doesn't mean my statement is wrong or flawed, it just means it looks infeasible under average conditions. And so be it ... yes it probably is infeasible. It sucks. We have too much expenses in our lives, and we just aren't well off enough. It's an economic reality, I think.

It's analagous to a doctor saying, I recommend for optimum health that you do 1 hour of cardio exercise a day. Also the doctor says I acknowledge that may be difficult or next to impossible to do in your current lifestyle, but it's still my advice based on medical need.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

j


james4beach said:


> I think journalists aren't doing their jobs. The ones in the mainstream media are useless. Did journalists tell you about the fraud at Fannie Mae? Did they tell you Countrywide Financial was crooked? Did they tell you Citigroup and Bank of America were hyperleveraged and prone to collapse? Any cursory examination of the companies would have revealed these stories.
> 
> But no. Journalists said nothing. These companies collapsed, investors got wiped out, taxpayers took on huge additional burdens. You want me to applaud those journalists?
> 
> Now we have a heavily leveraged banking system in Canada, but again, journalists don't say a word.




I don't believe this is true in the least.

Fannie Mae, Countrywide, Citigroup & Bank America were heavily covered in US media. Their problems were presaged & detailed many times over. In addition, insolvency of the US FDIC - not mentioned in the above post - was also fretted over in the years before it actually happened.

as the first decade of this century matured, leading up to the crash of 2008, famous US hedge fund bear Barton Biggs received far more press coverage than Warren Buffett. He was not the only US celebrity bear. All were calling for a US housing market meltdown.

in canada, in june 2007, i read in mainstream media that Coventry had failed in BC. It was the signal to me that mortgage debt in canada could be on the verge of cracking. I commenced a gradual policy of committing cash to treasury bills only, never anything else. This continued for the rest of 2007 & all of 2008. 

it was near-miraculous timing. It happened because canadian mainstream media did faithfully report all of the news. It happened because i read the news & was able to react appropriately. Thank you globe and mail each: Thank you national post each:


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Thanks for the explanation you gave Humble pie.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

James4beach everyone here should know that the wheels are in motion for all countries to be Cyprused with the revelations of Carney front and center. The bond market is surviving on the back of money printing to hold it up and at the same time money printing to hold down the alternatives like gold and silver. The ponzi scheme is near an end and desperation has set in and we all know this and they are not hiding it. The mainstream media won't report on this or the people would revolt knowing their money is not safe.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

HaroldCrump said:


> Well, it does, in a sardonic way.
> This is because Spain's debt is back-stopped by the ECB.
> They will not let Spain (or Italy) default.
> The troika will rob, steal, pillage smaller countries and private wealth in order to keep the Euro currency alive.
> ...


man
u post one time and .... with a few lines u can extract essence of things.
words of wisdom.
no pun intended at all puhleaze .
from all the fighting wording here that i will read when i actually open my eyes in a better way urs stand out.
cheers


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## Andrej (Feb 25, 2010)

The title to this thread needs a new name.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Of course, cash is king, nobody would argue that!
> 
> I most certainly believe in having an emergency fund/cash {IMO, a minimum 1 yr. salary would be preferable as finding a job can take a long time for some}/guaranteed investments/savings.
> 
> ...



James 4B.
she has a point here.
u do not need 200k to trade in the stock mkt.
i think this argument on this thread is getting out of hand and becoming an unnneccessary fight.
i will stay out of it.
GLTA


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

Why on earth would I put ANY $$ into savings only to have it slowly (quickly?) eaten away by inflation? No thanks. That's a sure fire way to NEVER retire.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

for james 4b.
not related to gold.
as any forum and as any noob when i enrolled here way back when i also tried to ask questions and get advice.
one member here mentioned warrants of a defunct company CCJ.
i remember as if it was today lol.
the same member said that even though i had mentioned that the same company was under a lot of trouble and in the brink opf bankruptcy , the member still stood strong on the fact that the trade was good.
dig in... buy it ... it is very very cheap... so on and so forth lol.
i could have been a noob at the time but i did not have the word IDIOT written in my forehead.
and many other stories.
either way .
members here talk about CRIMEX..... well what can i say right?
everyone is entitled for an opinion as to crimex comex or whatever.
like i said before ... the price is what prints in my screen .... no more no less.
J4B
i do not disagree with what u think in terms of having cash or not.
u say u are a professional and i believe u.
what i do not understand is ur lack of conviction as a professional to take certain risks.
i take a shitload of risk .
some were stupid from my side.
most of them were not.
i leave emotion on the side and i trade.
tradind cannot involve emotion .
never.
that was my rule #1 in trading.

i am not a professional and most of what i learned was through seminars and a few professionals that i met along the way plus my own diligence in exploiting certain things.
nevertheless i wish u luck the same way i wish luck to everyone here.
cheers


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

The title is fine for the turmoil that is going on Andrej. The crap is in the fan on gold stocks but it is all tangled into the mess that is all over the world.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> j
> I don't believe this is true in the least.


Thanks for the post & details


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> i do not disagree with what u think in terms of having cash or not.
> u say u are a professional and i believe u.
> what i do not understand is ur lack of conviction as a professional to take certain risks.


Working in finance does not mean one's job function is automatically to take big risks or be a big speculator. Certainly it is the job of a trader but it's not a universal aspect of finance jobs.

But it's not my job. My job is to research and document risks, and to seek good risk vs reward tradeoffs for conservative clients. And run portfolios at low cost and low turnover... that's my job.

But conviction? I do have my convictions, and I operate with those for my personal investments. I believe we're in a multi-year bear market. I believe that stocks and bonds are globally overvalued and I think the economy is going to crater. Therefore I take some very gutsy actions --- operating on my conviction: I don't buy stocks; I don't buy real estate; I hoard cash. That's all for my personal investing.

What I do is risky. You see it on this forum all the time... people remind me that I risk losing purchasing power by staying in cash & short term bonds. I'll miss out on the economic boom, or lose out to inflation. That's the big risk I take, because I have my conviction about the economy and overall valuations.

In my work context, people force me to buy stocks for them, so I buy the best I can find. But I'm bearish on stocks & the economy, and I do not recommend buying stocks.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

^ fair enough.
here is my take on gold now.... actually i would trade silver instead .... via etfs
if gold proves to be resilient enough to stay above 1320 level and respectively silver above above 22.2 iam in ...
PROVIDING OTHER FACTORS COME INTO PLAY.
i would rather miss an initial rally then being run by a freight train.
even then i would place tight stop losses.
have a good night.
u can post what YOU are going to do.
i am a trader.
u are not.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Maybe one day I'll have more time for trading... there was a period I did more trading, back in 2007.

See my post in individual stocks about CEF.A (gold & silver fund). Here's an aggressive speculation I could see: buy heavily at this point. idea being that if uptrend stays intact, you'll have a huge profit. On the flip side, watch to get out in case the trend is clearly violated. So that's one idea


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

james4beach said:


> Maybe one day I'll have more time for trading... there was a period I did more trading, back in 2007.
> 
> See my post in individual stocks about CEF.A (gold & silver fund). Here's an aggressive speculation I could see: buy heavily at this point. idea being that if uptrend stays intact, you'll have a huge profit. On the flip side, watch to get out in case the trend is clearly violated. So that's one idea


i already replied to ur CEF post.
and by the way 
why does one need time to trade man.
i have so many ridiculously otm bids in so many things that u do not need to have TIME as u say.
cmon man.
give me a break


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## Andrej (Feb 25, 2010)

dogcom said:


> The title is fine for the turmoil that is going on Andrej. The crap is in the fan on gold stocks but it is all tangled into the mess that is all over the world.


I'm not saying I don't agree with the title. Just saying the conversation got slighty off topic.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Thanks for your concern andrej I appreciate it.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

sure we do appreciate andrej concerns.
question is .... does he have anything to say or should we start a separate thread for each and everything spoken here.
it is easy to read and add nothing.
gold was the trigger.
therefore we generalized the conversation.
i do not see a problem .
nevertheless I think I already said enough.
cheers dog


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