# Teck Resources (TCK.B)



## nakedput

I remember this company went from around $60 in 07, down to $3.93 (I picked up shares at $4.00), up to $60 again, and now currently sitting at around $25.00 (52 wk lows). Seeing as how I had returned over 4x my investment in 2008 with Teck, I've always had a soft spot for the company.

Currently, based on price, they look very attractive. They are also trading at a decent earnings multiple (17x) and BELOW book value (book value is worth $32/share). Not sure why the market is owning these guys, i suspect it has a lot to do with potential recession in China, and the downside on coal and copper prices.

Is anyone giving a serious look into this company? I haven't started my DD yet but I think based on price, these guys definitely deserve a look.

I welcome any comments you may have.


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## Nemo2

Your post prompted me to check our past history with Teck......bought, in Nov 2008 @ $8.68......sold Sept 2009 @ $30.54........almost 6 years ago and it's lower now than when we took our profits.......whether it's a good buy or a morass I don't know but would be interested in your findings.


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## nakedput

Nemo2 said:


> Your post prompted me to check our past history with Teck......bought, in Nov 2008 @ $8.68......sold Sept 2009 @ $30.54........almost 6 years ago and it's lower now than when we took our profits.......whether it's a good buy or a morass I don't know but would be interested in your findings.


I will be looking into it a little bit more starting tommorow but on the surface it looks like the weakness is for a couple reasons. Definitely weakness in coal and copper and as Teck is known for frequent acquisitions, the street think it is a poor time to acquire at this time (not sure why; there is a lot of low hanging fruit in the mining industry). Teck is the biggest miner in Canada and fairly diversified, unless China implodes and the world tanks, I do not see a lot of risk with a mining stock as well managed and savvy as Teck. The divvy is currently 45 cents (semi annually) and I expect them to raise it in the coming future.


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## nakedput

continued weakness in teck. I understand the downgrades in china's growth as arguments about why teck resources will not make as much money/grow as much, but the valuation of teck seems ridiculous right now. 0.69 book value...PE Ratio of 14. As long as china is still growing (especially the middle class' demand for automobiles), teck will continue to do very very well - the valuation here seems completely bogus.

edit - also wanted to add. teck's met coal contracts are all long term and do not effect teck's bottom line. teck will continue to make money, even if the price of coal takes a nosedive (which it won't imho, it will follow the price of iron which should increase as long as china does not implode).


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## My Own Advisor

Cash flow remains relatively stable for last 5 years:

Cash from Operating Activities	2,795,	3,957,	3,274,	2,967,	2,170


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## OurBigFatWallet

Significant drop today on lower profits. Anyone buying?


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## alex52

I always wonder why Canadians are wedded to bank and resource stocks, when there are so many great opportunities in US stocks. 
Sold all my Canadian stocks in December 2013 after making 20% in a year in financials.

Constructed a portfolio in US stocks.

Made 18% YTD in US biotech stocks so far.


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## gardner

At 23.50 this is close to its 52-week low. Even if they reduced their dividend to 0.40 they would yield 3.4% at this price. I am tempted to put it in my dividend portfolio which is looking for some diversification.


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## doctrine

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/03/17/teck-resources-outlook-cut-on-lower-met-coal-prices/

Some good points in that. Met coal, which accounts for 45% of their revenue, is already 13% below last quarter's prices. This is already probably a consideration, except there might be some sticker shock at Teck's next quarterly update if earnings are a lot lower.


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## lostwords

What's the difference between TCK.A and TCK.B??


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## Nemo2

lostwords said:


> What's the difference between TCK.A and TCK.B??


Voting rights AFAIK.


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## hboy43

gardner said:


> At 23.50 this is close to its 52-week low. Even if they reduced their dividend to 0.40 they would yield 3.4% at this price. I am tempted to put it in my dividend portfolio which is looking for some diversification.


I purchased recently at $23.75. Did not own a miner and it seemed a reasonable time to buy with all the gloom and the stock price not being $60 like a few years back. The equivalent in my portfolio from 2 or 3 years back was ECA which languished in a loss position for most of that time until recently.

hboy43


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## Time4earlyretirement

I do think most of the downside is priced in at this level. Divs look sustainable, I've started a position in this myself, with a horizon of 1-3 years.


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## Jesse

+1 for buying this last week. 1000 shares @ 22.85. Love Teck at these levels and the div is just an added bonus. Would sell at 26.


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## OurBigFatWallet

I bought a while back and will continue to hold. No matter what happens it always seems to bounce back (even from an extreme low of $3 during the recession). Seems well managed too


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## fatcat

Jesse said:


> +1 for buying this last week. 1000 shares @ 22.85. Love Teck at these levels and the div is just an added bonus. Would sell at 26.


i rode it up to 27 and back down again, this a company to hold for a long time with excellent assets and a good dividend


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## AltaRed

Agreed. Not fussed at all about the ups and downs. That is the life of commodity stocks.


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## Jesse

Jesse said:


> +1 for buying this last week. 1000 shares @ 22.85. Love Teck at these levels and the div is just an added bonus. Would sell at 26.


That was fast.

Sold today @ 25.96

Will buy again on a pullback.


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## Time4earlyretirement

Jesse said:


> That was fast.
> 
> Sold today @ 25.96
> 
> Will buy again on a pullback.



same transactions, at 1/10 scale lol


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## the-royal-mail

Why TCK.B is up today. Seems to be heavy volume:

_"Trading volume is heavy today at 4.1 million, almost double the stock's three month average."_


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## dubmac

Is anyone buying TCK.B? I'm considering averaging down on this.
seems to have hit a low - PE around 15, yield 5%. 
China figures large in the recent drop. 
"Prices for metallurgical coal (a product which accounts for half of Teck’s profits) has fallen from $279 in Q3 2011 to $122 in Q2 2014. Supply has also held up well, keeping prices depressed." from motley fool.


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## al42

Been nibbling the last few months and getting creamed!!
Waiting for $17 or lower before buying more.


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## Beaver101

^ At least you're still in 1st place on the 2014 Predictions Contest :biggrin: ... so this is where Al is hiding.


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## AltaRed

I, too, would like to fill out a partial position in Teck I have held for some time. Current ACB is circa $21. But it needs to find a bottom first and it may well get into the $15 range (or lower) in the next 6 months if China's economy continues its path to slower growth. No need to rush.


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## al42

Beaver101 said:


> ^ At least you're still in 1st place on the 2014 Predictions Contest :biggrin: ... so this is where Al is hiding.


Really...I don't even remember what I predicted. I must of been way off my prediction for the price of Oil?
Looking at all my Oil & Gas stocks being crushed, If I would have thought Oil was going down to the $80 level I might have lightened up on this sector.


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## JordoR

I've been watching teck like a vulture waiting for an entry point... it has fallen a long way since I sold my holdings @ 26 earlier in the year. 

I feel it's a great long term company that's just getting hit right now by falling metal prices/instability in mining/coal prices. I'm just waiting for some of my other positions to hit my selling point so I can free up some cash for teck.


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## Beaver101

al42 said:


> Really...I don't even remember what I predicted. I must of been way off my prediction for the price of Oil?
> Looking at all my Oil & Gas stocks being crushed, If I would have thought Oil was going down to the $80 level I might have lightened up on this sector.


 ... only you could have predicted correctly .. and your oil stocks wouldn't have been crushed...:biggrin: Regardless, you're still at #1 as per results in post #52 of 2014 Predictions Contest thread. 

PS: If you remain as #1 at end of December, kcowan is going to hunt you down. You've been warned. :biggrin:


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## peterk

Bought in over a year ago at ~23 and added some more last week at 17.50... Let's hope she doesn't fall much further...


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## bettyboop

Almost pulled the trigger today, but will wait a little longer.


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## bmoney

Has anyone added or considering? It seems to be forming a base here, still in the early stages.


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## supperfly17

Im sorry if i missed this in previous pages, but what is the difference in TCK.A vs TCK.B?


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## dubmac

bmoney said:


> Has anyone added or considering? It seems to be forming a base here, still in the early stages.


I bought 2 yrs ago & am considering averaging down on this one


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## AltaRed

supperfly17 said:


> Im sorry if i missed this in previous pages, but what is the difference in TCK.A vs TCK.B?


TCK.A (common) has 100 votes per share and TCK.B (subordinate) has one vote per share. No point in the average investor having A class shares.


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## bmoney

How do you guys stomach this volatility? It was up almost 10% last week in a single day and it's been down every day since. Something doesn't make sense. I'm staying out of this one.


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## supperfly17

bmoney said:


> How do you guys stomach this volatility? It was up almost 10% last week in a single day and it's been down every day since. Something doesn't make sense. I'm staying out of this one.


Becoming quite tempting, although I am not sure why its losing so much ground today.


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## dubmac

supperfly17 said:


> Becoming quite tempting, although I am not sure why its losing so much ground today.


probably low demand from China...most of their production is coal. coal has been quite cheap lately. It hasn't been this low since April 2009! In March 2009 it went to 3.60 or so.


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## webber22

It hit the ex-date today, since it's a semi-annual .45 divy it takes a big hit


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## JordoR

Seems according to their website the ex-date for the div is COB Monday December 15th.
I just can't believe how far TCK.B has fallen, I started a small position today.


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## webber22

ex-date is 3 trading days before the close of business date of Dec 15th...... today
I think they've dipped into some energy business lately ..... doikkkkk


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## JordoR

webber22 said:


> ex-date is 3 trading days before the close of business date of Dec 15th...... today
> I think they've dipped into some energy business lately ..... doikkkkk


Fair enough, my mistake  Considering I sold this for 25 earlier in the year, getting in at 13.80 sits fine with me.


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## InvestmentIQ

*Tck ...*

I got in at 22 or so. Now it's going to be quite a wait before it goes back up there. Hopefully not too long... :biggrin:


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## daddybigbucks

JordoR said:


> Yeah a bit of a bump on opening, but I wasn't holding this long term and was happy with my tidy profit for a short hold. Honestly I could have seen it going either way on opening, and historically I have the worst luck on earnings report, even if it's good news.
> 
> I'm also looking for another re-entry if it drops down to 13-14ish again.





KaeJS said:


> ^ Waiting for this.
> 
> Let's see how that turns out. I think it is supposed to come out before market open?


**just to not tie up the "what are you buying " thread**

the year end report was as expected. Lower earnings due to depressed commodity prices but better than expected gains on currency exchange and oil price.
The statement that really stood out to me is that they expect to LOSE money this next year if pricing all stays the same.
I didn't get the warm fuzzies so I took a quick 5% gain and will wait for re-entry (if it happens) at $16 where I feel more comfortable.


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## JordoR

daddybigbucks said:


> **just to not tie up the "what are you buying " thread**
> 
> the year end report was as expected. Lower earnings due to depressed commodity prices but better than expected gains on currency exchange and oil price.
> The statement that really stood out to me is that they expect to LOSE money this next year if pricing all stays the same.
> I didn't get the warm fuzzies so I took a quick 5% gain and will wait for re-entry (if it happens) at $16 where I feel more comfortable.


Yeah good call, I should have brought the discussion here myself.

I don't have the warm fuzzies about Teck either right now, considering it was in the mid twenties earlier in the year when I was trading it. I think it's a fantastic company long term, with a decent dividend, good properties, and good team - but is just very beat up right now due to commodities and the oil price especially considering the investment required in the Fort Hill project. 

I think it's a bargain in the 13-14 dollar range, where I will invest back in - but I will exit on the way back up to 20 until things settle out a bit more. Sure I may miss out on the huge gain, but I'm also making some nice profit in the meantime on it.


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## InvestmentIQ

All commodity related stocks have been beaten down, and this is no exception. We will see how far the rally can go, on the way back up.


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## DividendLuvr

Dividend cut by two thirds.


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## peterk

Added at 15.59 this morning. Still down 25% overall.


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## JordoR

Months ago I bought in at 13.5 and sold at 18.5. I might get back in if it drops below 14, if not no big loss.


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## InvestmentIQ

*Div cut...*

Is this a sign of good management though, the div cut?


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## bmoney

I don't know what you guys seen in this stock. I see a company that is poorly managed, with a commodity where demand is decreasing (coal), no moat, and at the mercy of the global economy. This was a $5 stock before the big run up in commodities of the mid-2000s, and huge Chinese real estate and infastructure investments that drove massive increase in demand. Now that China and in general the world economy is slowing, deflation is an emminent risk to this company. I wouldn't own this stock here.


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## gardner

bmoney said:


> I don't know what you guys seen in this stock


Not much now. This has been a total dog for me. I'll likely take my loss on it over the summer some time.


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## InvestmentIQ

What the hell is going on with this stock? $13.00? Seriously?? :upset:


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## AltaRed

InvestmentIQ said:


> What the hell is going on with this stock? $13.00? Seriously?? :upset:


Give it a year or two when the commodity cycle potentially reverses. Most of its products are priced in the dumps right now, including a rotating shutdown of its coal production this summer. It is likely to slump lower over the course of 2015 before it moves higher.

Remember when the stock was in the $4-5 range when it was in near violation of its debt covenants after the ill-timed purchase of Fording Coal?

I have a partial position too, bought in the last downturn....currently underwater at these levels. Should have dumped it when it was circa $20 but since I am a 'buy and hold' guy, I am still holding :apathy:.


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## dubmac

AltaRed said:


> Should have dumped it when it was circa $20 but since I am a 'buy and hold' guy, I am still holding :apathy:.


..me too. read this article..https://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/tecks-foray-oil-sand-questioned-new-analysis/
basically..coal down from 300 to 117 per tonne, copper prices...down, foray into oil sands at ft hills project...not-so-good-an-idea-now...all this equals teck SP down and probably go lower. I hold this one, and will not sell. It'll come back but heavily reliant on china & commodities.


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## gardner

I am still holding after buying at $24 and change. I am thinking of averaging down, but I doubt we have seen the bottom. The fact that they pulled back the dividend is annoying though, as it is no longer the type of yielder I would generally buy into.


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## peterk

Been buying all the way down. $15.xx 14.xx 13.xx

Guess I might as well buy at 12.xx too!


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## ChillbroSwaggins

Just entered at $12.99, thanks for the update guys. I checked out the balance sheet and this seems like a decent long term value buy, going off it's book value per share.


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## AltaRed

I think this stock could break $10 yet in 2015 if there is no turnaround in commodity prices this year. Cash flow will almost certainly decrease further over the next quarter or two. I "may" double up my current position if it breaks $10 for a 'full' position.

I think some investors wonder if the Fort Hills venture will provide an economic return to anyone, never mind Teck for which oil is not a core part of their business. I remember having discussions with Fording in the 1990s et al about taking an equity position in oil sands mining, rather than being just a contractor. They said they didn't understand oil then to do that. Not sure anyone understands oil today either.


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## doctrine

What did Teck hit in 2008, $3.50 a share? The stock isn't worth anything if they can't make money, and it looks to me like they're going to have to either raise equity or sell assets to make Fort Hills work. I don't have the numbers, but I think they need $3-4B or so? That's 50% of the current market cap. Ouch. And apparently the world's miners are taking a Saudi approach to resources, with everyone pumping as much as they can to lower the price and bankrupt each other. It's starting to be blood on the streets. I'm sure there is a good value point, but like other people suggest it might be below $10.


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## InvestmentIQ

I guess now I understand what they say: don't buy a stock unless you are prepared for a 50% reduction in price. Otherwise, don't buy it.


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## rl1983

Anyone else biting into this? I've purchased at $9.40 and it looks like its still on it's way down....


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## AltaRed

AltaRed said:


> I think this stock could break $10 yet in 2015 if there is no turnaround in commodity prices this year. Cash flow will almost certainly decrease further over the next quarter or two. I "may" double up my current position if it breaks $10 for a 'full' position.


Famous last words. I see no end to the drop yet. It has to have a firm bottom for me to 'double' my current position.


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## JordoR

I think I'll sit on the sidelines for this one before looking at an entry. With no end in sight for commody prices, and Teck (along with most miners) having some of their operations on standby or maintenance mode for the market to recover - doesn't bode well. IT's ugly out there, and I'm not sure what's going to give here...

Gut feel I see this below $8, and maybe into 6's.


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## JordoR

Anyone looking at entry into this any time soon? It's just been an absolute massacre with no end in sight... under $9 today


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## peterk

Now at -40% _including_ averaging down... ay ay ay.


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## AltaRed

JordoR said:


> Anyone looking at entry into this any time soon? It's just been an absolute massacre with no end in sight... under $9 today


I am afraid this one has further to fall. The biggest unknown (in my opinion) here is whether they have the cash flow/debt capacity to fund the rest of their share of the Fort Hills project without going to the equity market. It would be brutal shareholder dilution to have to do that. I need to research that soon since I am in with a partial position. Has anyone scoured their latest MD&A for any hints Teck may have made about that? I know they have curtailed coal production on a rotating basis to 'hunker down' and preserve cash.


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## JordoR

AltaRed said:


> I am afraid this one has further to fall. The biggest unknown (in my opinion) here is whether they have the cash flow/debt capacity to fund the rest of their share of the Fort Hills project without going to the equity market. It would be brutal shareholder dilution to have to do that. I need to research that soon since I am in with a partial position. Has anyone scoured their latest MD&A for any hints Teck may have made about that? I know they have curtailed coal production on a rotating basis to 'hunker down' and preserve cash.


Yeah the $1.8 Billion they are commited to investing in Fort Hills scares me about this one... well added to the fact that the project has an estimated breakeven around US $82 per barrel... how can it be economic when we are way below that. As you say, not sure of the available cash flow or debt capac... but this is not a minor investment in current market conditions.


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## humble_pie

TCK now dipping towards USD $4, these are lows not seen since the crash of 08/09 when the talk was all how would they pay down debt for fording coal.

is the crisis talk now about how will Teck pay for fort hills? i see some crisis talk also about how they may have to shut down quebrada blanca.

o tempora o mores. USD $3.50 was when i got interested in the last cycle. As before, the risks are stupefying. Without quebrada blanca, with metallurgical coal a bust for china, with coal the baddest boy, with fort hills a goner, will teck be broken?

as usual, altaRed points the way. Read the MDs & As, he says. In fact, _scour_ the MDs & As, he suggests.


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## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> TCK now dipping towards USD $4, these are lows not seen since the crash of 08/09 when the talk was all how would they pay down debt for fording coal.
> is the crisis talk now about how will Teck pay for fort hills? i see some crisis talk also about how they may have to shut down quebrada blanca..


The news is not good..& likely will not improve. Seems another "perfect storm" with low copper, oil and coal prices. I heard that they laid off some 1000 employees recently. But who would merge with a company that has prospects like TECK? 

From Morningstar - Nov 23 analyst report.

Teck's zinc/lead business historically has generated solid profits, thanks to attractive ore grades at the massive Red Dog mine in Alaska. While we're not terribly bullish on zinc and lead prices, the asset's excellent geology should keep this business comfortably in the black. As a result of our bearish view on met coal and copper prices, we believe Teck will need to raise debt or cut its dividend to fund its entrance into energy with the Fort Hills oil sands project. While the project diversifies Teck's portfolio, we expect fairly mediocre returns on a stand-alone basis.

We've lowered our long-term copper price forecast to $2.00 per pound in 2015 constant dollar terms. Our previous long-term price forecast was $2.46 per pound. A more bearish outlook for Chinese copper demand and an update to our cost curve forecast are the primary drivers for the cut in our long-term price assumption. We expect China's copper needs to fall in 2016 and 2017 as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission. On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices. Our analysis points to sub-$2.00 copper in 2016 and 2017 and only a modest recovery thereafter


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## AltaRed

It was the continuinng slide in copper prices with no improvement in sight that caused me to throw in the towel a little while ago for tax loss selling. A firming up of copper prices would have sustained sufficient corporate cash flow enough to allow Teck to pretty much fund their share of Fort Hills just from cash on the balance sheet. That is no longer certain as all base metals continue to soften.

OTOH, from a Fort Hills only perspective, too many people worry about the drag Fort Hills will be on corporate returns. In reality, this is the best time in the world for project construction, i.e. lower costs during construction and then production will come on about the time oil prices will be in recovery, albeit no one knows whether it will be $50, $60 or $80. Every corporation has (should have) wet dreams over timing like this.


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## humble_pie

oh, my. I glimpsed a US quote for TCK at 3.19 this am. This must be the record low for the past decade, as best i can recall teck in USD didn't drop this low even during the nightmare crash of 08/09.

obviously there are colossal bargains in resource stocks to scoop. The chief cautions imho are 1) can a company survive with no income plus significant debt? & 2) how long is this commodity depression going to last, anyhow. I guess that's tantamount to asking how long will it take china to get over what appears to be an implosion ...

me i like times like this, the stakes are so high. For deep-discount buy possibilities, i'm preferring the resource sector to the tech sector or the healthcare sector right now. Battering still appears to be ongoing in tech & health imho.


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## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> oh, my. I glimpsed a US quote for TCK at 3.19 this am. This must be the record low for the past decade, as best i can recall teck in USD didn't drop this low even during the nightmare crash of 08/09.
> 
> obviously there are colossal bargains in resource stocks to scoop. The chief cautions imho are 1) can a company survive with no income plus significant debt? & 2) how long is this commodity depression going to last, anyhow. I guess that's tantamount to asking how long will it take china to get over what appears to be an implosion ...
> 
> me i like times like this, the stakes are so high. For deep-discount buy possibilities, i'm preferring the resource sector to the tech sector or the healthcare sector right now. Battering still appears to be ongoing in tech & health imho.


Indeed interesting times HP. If memory serves, I do recall that TCK was saved from near extinction by a large "gateway financing deal from Chinese investors - see link.http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/chinas-growth-is-canadas-gain/article4308518/. 

*Investors trying to figure out the post-recession climate should pay attention to what's going on between China and Canada, as China has already acted as the engine of recovery for Canada's largest publicly traded mining company - Vancouver's Teck Resources Ltd. - turning it from a likely bankruptcy to the biggest turnaround stock on the Toronto Stock Exchange: from a low of $3.35 to a 2009 high of $40.15 (Canadian) with a $1.74-billion (Canadian) investment from the $200-billion (U.S.) China Investment Corp. (CIC). Flush with cash and hungry for resources to fuel its rapidly growing manufacturing sector - currently at a 20-month high - China is buying up Canada.*

would China CIC be able to infuse $ on this scale into rusty-old, coal-coughing Teck again?


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## bmoney

I hated TCK all the way down but at $4 and change I'm taking a gamble in my TFSA. This is my Warren Buffett cigar-butt stock and willing to lose 100% to try and make 500%, just hope the odds are better than 20%. Do not try this yourself unless you're okay losing money.


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## humble_pie

^^

i'm ok losing money but i think black mac's question just upthread is right on the money. Are we ok with a rusty old coal-coughing mining stock? china is foutu now, so where is the deus ex machina that is capable of swooping down to rescue some of these wrecks?

ps i think your risk & odds calculations are perfect .each:


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## humble_pie

her name was Muriel Siebert. She owned the first female-headed brokerage to take a seat on the NYSE, something like that (i haven't just now googled her history.) Anyhow she was a famous wall street grande dame of finance.

in early 2009, as the known financial world lay in ruins, the media interviewed ms siebert, then aged in her mid-80s. Was she wanting to buy anything these days, they asked her.

milady perked up. Oh yes! she said. yes! yes! yes!

i have to restrain myself at least once every hour, to keep from buying, she told the journo.

i feel the same way with tck, with rig, with pds, with cnq, with pot. I have to keep slapping my fingers back on the broker website, as they somehow start creeping, with a life of their own, towards the buy order platform keys.


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## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> i feel the same way with tck, with rig, with pds, with cnq, with pot. I have to keep slapping my fingers back on the broker website, as they somehow start creeping, with a life of their own, towards the buy order platform keys.


TCK was highlighted in an article today - there is reason for a glimmer of optimism! http://www.torontosun.com/2016/01/12/canadian-winners-and-losers-as-loonie-continues-nosedive

Winner: The mining sector. Vancouver mining company Teck Resources credits the low Canadian dollar for helping the company weather the downturn in commodity prices, with the company able to sell its copper and coal at U.S. prices while pay operating costs in Canadian. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO, Teck Resources).

I'd love to know whether any insiders are buying shares. I checked the volume and there are some truly large positions being moved at the start of every trading session over the past week or so. Curiously interesting....hmm.


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## humble_pie

but there are hundreds of canadian companies, primarily resource companies, which fit that formula though. IE they sell product in USD, excavate/pump/grow/pay costs in CAD.

i feel that Teck isn't being singled out here for itself, but only as icon representing all of the other companies.

we can see Teck's name in the photo credits. It's possible that the Sun's editors had just received this stunning brand-new photograph from Teck's PR, so they decided to use it to tell the story. 

it's more likely that Teck's PR - in an inspired moment of genius - agreed or even sought to shoot this photograph at the company's expense, in return for what they knew would be favourable exposure in the mass media.

horribly enough, it's even possible that Canadian Press photographers filmed this quirky truck, with its beautiful snow-dusted mountain backdrop, while an overjoyed Teck PR department paid all the costs of the photo expedition (we're inching closer to bribery here) (but it does happen) (more than you'd think, as already slashed media budgets get cut again & again.)

alas in all the above situations, the story would have nothing to do with teck's fundamentals. So sorry, but i'd rather stick to your earlier coughing old coal-dust spewing picture, it's more realistic ...

.


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## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> I'd love to know whether any insiders are buying shares. I checked the volume and there are some truly large positions being moved at the start of every trading session over the past week or so. Curiously interesting....hmm.



do you have access to INK insider? or can check SEDI.ca? 

INK gets its data from SEDI but SEDI is hard to navigate. I'll try to take a look & report back. I imagine the Keevil family are still owners of the multiple voting shares? ie they control the company


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## AltaRed

humble_pie said:


> we can see Teck's name in the photo credits. It's possible that the Sun's editors had just received this stunning brand-new photograph from Teck's PR, so they decided to use it to tell the story.
> 
> it's more likely that Teck's PR - in an inspired moment of genius - agreed or even sought to shoot this photograph at the company's expense, in return for what they knew would be favourable exposure in the mass media.
> 
> horribly enough, it's even possible that Canadian Press photographers filmed this quirky truck, with its beautiful snow-dusted mountain backdrop, while an overjoyed Teck PR department paid all the costs of the photo expedition (we're inching closer to bribery here) (but it does happen) (more than you'd think, as already slashed media budgets get cut again & again.)


Not that it matters for this thread, but this photo could have been taken by any one of Teck's dozens of (former Fording Coal) employees on their haul road northeast of Elkford on any one of several days. No real cost involved. Their Elkford area mine is almost on the continental divide in some of the most beautiful country in the world. 

Google 'Teck Elkford Mine' to get a Google map earth view and zoon in to Fording River / Mount Turnbull for a lookie see.


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## humble_pie

^^

ah but look at the photo credits.* Canadian Press & Teck take the credits together.

besides, that's a professional photograph. It's absolutely spectacular. That interesting blunt front nose of the truck, driving straight at the camera - it's the heart & soul of the art in this picture - is not what an amateur could or would snap in a snapshot.

if it were an amateur or free-lance photograph, the photo credit would not include Canadian Press. One thing is for sure, if the costs of the shoot were borne by Teck in any way, there will never be a peep about that. 

here's the archive source, as you can see the photo rights belong to the toronto Sun (i'll have to insert an extra space or period to prevent the link from turning itself into a picture again):

[img.]http://storage.torontosun.com/v1/dynamic_resize/sws_path/suns-prod-images/1297792928289_ORIGINAL.jpg?quality=80&size=650x[/img.]


do you know this mountain, altaRed? no wonder people love BC so much, no wonder they call it god's country


* EDIT: alas the photo credits don't appear with this version of the picture, but they are visible in the original toronto Sun version through black mac's link to the media.

the credits read Canadian Press/Ho Teck.


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## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> do you have access to INK insider? or can check SEDI.ca?
> 
> INK gets its data from SEDI but SEDI is hard to navigate. I'll try to take a look & report back. I imagine the Keevil family are still owners of the multiple voting shares? ie they control the company


I checked a few sources - I haven't found any evidence of any insiders buying in.


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## AltaRed

humble_pie said:


> do you know this mountain, altaRed? no wonder people love BC so much, no wonder they call it god's country.


Not this specific peak directly, but I spent some time hiking in the area almost 20 yrs ago and have stood on the continental divide (likely slightly further north) looking down into Alberta!


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## peterk

Excellent. Surprisingly OK results for a challenging 2015, and a huge run up the last couple weeks. Glad I doubled down from 700 to 1400 shares at $4.50 January.  I'm almost in the black now. :stupid:


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## Chris L

This one still got legs? What are some others in mining that might be worth looking at?


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## rl1983

Chris L said:


> This one still got legs? What are some others in mining that might be worth looking at?


Looks to be on it's way up.


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## hboy43

rl1983 said:


> Looks to be on it's way up.


Could be but who knows? The salient question I think is "Is it good long term value or not?" Did you buy any when under $5?

Today just over break even on my ACB. Last buy 4600 @ $4.79.


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## Chris L

I almost bit some off this morning, but didn't. In the long term, resources should recover nicely. Missed the big run up though, the rest might take years to show itself. No rush to get in right now so let's see what develops moving forward. Had I been cued in, I probably would have bought some at $5...but I was pretty focused on oil at that time.


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## rl1983

Chris L said:


> I almost bit some off this morning, but didn't. In the long term, resources should recover nicely. Missed the big run up though, the rest might take years to show itself. No rush to get in right now so let's see what develops moving forward. Had I been cued in, I probably would have bought some at $5...but I was pretty focused on oil at that time.



Unfortunately I didn't buy in at under $5. I think I got in around $9 several months ago. I have been watching it, but really fumbled the ball. Lesson learned.


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## bmoney

rl1983 said:


> Unfortunately I didn't buy in at under $5. I think I got in around $9 several months ago. I have been watching it, but really fumbled the ball. Lesson learned.


I bought under $5


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## humble_pie

US coal giant Peabody - biggest coal producer in the world - files for chapter 11 this am


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## jwsclark19

Teck is surging pretty good over the last couple days.....Everyone is expecting good financial results on the 26th I take it?


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## hboy43

jwsclark19 said:


> Teck is surging pretty good over the last couple days.....Everyone is expecting good financial results on the 26th I take it?


No idea. Gave back 1500 at $12.89 today to hold 15,900. This is my backup plan cash to pay taxes and finance new furnace etc. if LRE buyout falls through.

hboy43


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## dubmac

hboy43 said:


> Gave back 1500 at $12.89 today to hold 15,900.


I think you'll get a good furnace for $20,000. well done!


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## hboy43

dubmac said:


> I think you'll get a good furnace for $20,000. well done!


It is a bit early to call "well done". Only made 8% on today's sale. For my just over a year's work with my ugly holdings TCK.B, BTE, LRE, ECA, HSE, and BBD.B I am a bit over break even and at about the point I'd be at if I started buying a month ago and missed a year's (plus) worth of market turmoil. Unfortunately I cannot predict the future, so I can't be the hypothetical guy that calls the bottom and starts from there.

hboy43


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## dubmac

hboy43 said:


> ...with my ugly holdings TCK.B, BTE, ....


I have these Ugly ducks as well, both are well in the red. I'd sell in a heart beat if they were nearer the break even price.


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## Eder

I sold my last Teck today, put the proceeds into Telus. Everyone is walking around with a smartphone, no one is wearing armor.


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## hboy43

Eder said:


> I sold my last Teck today, put the proceeds into Telus. Everyone is walking around with a smartphone, no one is wearing armor.


Meh, I sold my T last year at $42.34 and 43.96, to assist with buying TCK.B. I'll likely eventually come around to owning T again, maybe when LRE settles.

Today's question is do I give back more TCK.B today at close to $14? My largest holding even with 9% sale yesterday.

Yup, 1500 given back at $14.15.

hboy43


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## humble_pie

i am not getting these teck bears. Stk is coming off recent record lows, lows in USD on new york even lower than the crash of 08/09. Teck was lately in the USD $3s plus change.


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## hboy43

... and back to largest holding at $14.80. Just can't keep this one under 10% of portfolio.:biggrin:


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## Eder

I sold because it did not fit my portfolio model, I try not to hold any miners after the Bre-x thing but instead got greedy & caught Tecks knife on the way down. Finally I was able to get out with only a minor haircut.

Grats to all who will ride this train up but I`m out forever.


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## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> i am not getting these teck bears. Stk is coming off recent record lows, lows in USD on new york even lower than the crash of 08/09. Teck was lately in the USD $3s plus change.


me too HP.
I wonder whether Peabody Coal being closed has prompted the future supply of coal to become an issue. Combine that with the low cdn dollar, and suddenly TCK.B takes on more of a shine? These are my musings. Not facts.http://www.thepointreview.com/analysts-downgrades-teck-resources-ltd-usa-nysetck/


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## humble_pie

^^

but you can see how there are many ways to skin the cat. Or shine the copper penny.

hboy says teck is still his largest holding, even though he sold a few, it's all good.

eder says his portf is built along a different axis, since BreX he hasn't cared for the deep cyclicals, it's all good.

today i am having trouble with the Submit & the Edit features, idk if this is because my browser or because cmf forum is having a hiccup. In any event my teck message flew off before it was finished but i could not retrieve it to edit it.

what i'd wanted to add was the usual. How we are all waiting to see what will happen with china.


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## AltaRed

I'd suggest it is premature to assume that coal company bankruptcies are doing to make a material difference to coal prices. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ority-of-its-u-s-entities-file-for-chapter-11

Most mines continue to operate under bankruptcy protection albeit some highly unprofitable mines will no doubt have to close. I will speculate that Teck's rebound is more about speculation on it continuing to make enough money in other base metals to keep its funding commitment to Fort Hills intact and oil price recovery may be just in time for Fort Hills startup.


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## jwsclark19

I sold all of mine yesterday at $12.95....Made a 30% profit in 2 weeks....I'm happy enough with that. I'm worried everyone is overly optimistic that they will have amazing financial results released on the 26th.


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## jwsclark19

You guys think it's a good time to buy back in here? After I sold it, it continued to rally to about $15.....Figured I would by some more now that it dropped back down to $12.30ish.


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## janus10

Goldman issued a buy rating with a 12+ USD price target.

You can ALWAYS trust Goldman of course.


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## dubmac

Sold mine last week around 14.
Everything I have read suggests a sell-off is looming.


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## hboy43

dubmac said:


> Sold mine last week around 14.
> Everything I have read suggests a sell-off is looming.


Making predictions is hard, especially about the future. If it wanders down again, I'll buy some more. If it drifts up to around $18, I'll sell some more. Worked my way in from ~$23-5, work my way out ~$13-30.

Hboy43


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## humble_pie

i had a diagonal spread in US TCK calls but closed it out recently.

this last diag was my 3rd time around. It was long 10 jan $3 calls of 2018 & short 10 jan $8 calls of 2017, both bought in december/15.

cost was 1,795. Sold a couple weeks ago for 3,984, a return of 122% across 5 months. Annualizing the return would produce a considerably higher figure but this would be misleading, so i don't annualize.

i'll likely do it again. US options in TCK are the place, never canadian options.

.


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## stantistic

US options in TCK are the place, never canadian options.

.[/QUOTE]

Elucidate, please.


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## humble_pie

stantistic said:


> US options in TCK are the place ... Elucidate, please.




there are a number of canadian interlisted stocks whose primary markets, in terms of volume, are actually US markets. A leading example is Teck.

options in these stocks tend to follow suit. The hi volume option market will be US, not the montreal option exchange.

to find out where the real market is, one compares US options with canadian options. 

using TCK in US markets today as an example, stock closed at 9.85. Using very liquid jan 2017 calls as an example, the nearest call is the jan 10. Volume in this call today was 10 contracts. Open interest is 3,591, ie this call is reasonably liquid. B/A at the close was 2.30-2.38 (keep in mind that closing prices are often misleading.)

meanwhile in canadian markets, TCK.B closed today at 12.93. Nearest jan 2017 call is the jan 13. There was no volume in this call today. Open interest is a mere 153 contracts, ie this class is not liquid at all. B/A at the close was 2.61-2.91. 

notice that the bank of canada closing rate for USD today was 1.3134. At these rates, the US bid of 2.30 for the close-to-the-money Teck call was worth 3.02 CAD. But notice meanwhile that a comparable canadian bid for a similar option was only 2.61. There would be an adjustment of a few pennies since the TV for the US call was slightly higher, however the price gap between US & canadian markets is still significant.

hello, arbs! where were you on this, arbs? i imagine the problem for the arbs was lack of liquidity in the canadian option, otherwise the above could have been an arbitrage opportunity.

in summary, always investigate whether the leading option market for a canadian stock is US or canadian. AFAIK there is no list, one has to know on one's own.


.


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## treva84

What about for a long term hold? I don't have any exposure to minerals / materials and I think now would be the time to buy.

Edit - Never mind - I looked a bit into Tck, its not for me at this time.


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## Islenska

Just saw Barkleys with a $36 target, a stock that keeps getting pushed higher.....

Not for the faint of heart!


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## peterk

I'm selling at these prices... the run up is too much. I've unloaded all TCK from my TFSA now at about $21-$31 price over the past few months. Still have 1000 shares in unregistered but can't think about selling them till the new year as my marginal rate in 2016 is too high already, should be lower in 2017. Hopefully this thing holds $30 till into January.


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## janus10

Islenska said:


> Just saw Barkleys with a $36 target, a stock that keeps getting pushed higher.....
> 
> Not for the faint of heart!


CIBC just raised its target from $33 to $44.


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## janus10

peterk said:


> I'm selling at these prices... the run up is too much. I've unloaded all TCK from my TFSA now at about $21-$31 price over the past few months. Still have 1000 shares in unregistered but can't think about selling them till the new year as my marginal rate in 2016 is too high already, should be lower in 2017. Hopefully this thing holds $30 till into January.


I'm right with you. A bit more shares but all in my margin account and really don't need any more capital gains especially considering I just retired - next year might be a better year with respect to taxation since it will only be a small amount of interest income, a modicum of dividends, some RRSP withdrawals and a lot of capital gains.


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## daddybigbucks

i'm a bit biased but i think Teck coking coal is going to be in high demand next few years when china's steel gets hit with the new US tariffs .


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## Islenska

Watching Teck like a hawk....

Any hint of clouds on the horizon, I'm out! Just a smatter of China slowdown, real or not and Teck could falter.

Have been selling bits of 100 shares but fundamentals currently look very strong: high met coal, copper, zinc, and thankfully debt pay down, so enjoy the ride but be carefull......


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## hboy54

What a year with TCK.B. I have sold some at $12, $14, $18, $24, $28, $29, and $35. Left a pile of money on the table in the process, but what can you do? It has been between 9 and 13% of the portfolio the whole time.

Some wise old investor once said something to the effect of "let somebody have the first 20%, someone else have the last 20%, and be happy with collecting the 60% in between." I don't have my average sell price, the complementary figure to ACB, but probably about $25. The ACB was about $10. So I have harvested the middle 50% so far. Good enough I think.


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## Islenska

Very puzzled here, Teck appears on the right track but tanking lately?

Can't find any real news on this, maybe just too far , too fast,,,, profit taking

Teck is on track for a booming money year in 017, will see


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## hboy54

Islenska said:


> Very puzzled here, Teck appears on the right track but tanking lately?
> 
> Can't find any real news on this, maybe just too far , too fast,,,, profit taking
> 
> Teck is on track for a booming money year in 017, will see


Who knows why it is down this far short term. Mr. Market does what he does. All we can do is buy, sell, or hold. With the run up, current weighting, prior sales as above, and 2016 tax situation, I am personally in hold season. January 2017 might become sell season... but I'll probably continue to hold.


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## hboy54

Well, here I am to report contradicting myself after a mere week. When I sold at $35, that knocked me down to about 9%. Then a week ago I reported to being in hold mode at $30/8%. Well on Friday just before the close I added at $27.46 to get to about 8% again.

Was not clear to me what had changed in a month to move from $35 to $27, so I added a few. Not back up the truck time, just a small tweak.


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## Pluto

Bought some last July, and is doing great. Down a couple of bucks today but copper and zinc up over the weekend, so might add some more while I have this opportunity.


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