# What are you buying? Notes over Volatility



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

I thought it would be a good idea to cease further posting in the "What are you buying?" original thread. It just clutters up that thread needlessly as well as it doesn't seem like what i am doing is a proper fit. 

For those interested it will be found here. 

The trade and idea is as follows,

Take a long positions in US 5 year note - futures. Take a corresponding short position in volatility futures around the 90 day mark in a ratio to bonds (contract ratio - not notional).

This does a couple of things. First of all the way it is positioned, you get a nice hedge, one to the other. IE In times of 'fear' where vix-short is taking it on the chin, bonds are generally doing well, and vis-versa. On top of this, both sides of the trade are generally swimming with the current so to speak when it comes to the requirement to roll the futures - VX monthly, Note futures 1/4ly. A win-win.

Empirically as has been evidently during the past month from the other thread, having a long bond position does allow you to mix it up a bit more easily on vix spikes to get short, knowing if you're going to get hit the bond side will lessen the blow. 

Over the past few years both side have contributed well to the profitability of the trade, with the Notes having a slight edge.

OK 'nuff said.



> 1/3 of Feb VX covered @ $18.90
> 
> Getting partial bond contracts rolled @ 0'170 credit. Given bonds are dropping today the spread will widen so I'll likely get her all done by end of day.
> 
> ...



This was my last on the other thread. I have to roll the 5yr futures which is 1/2 done @ -0'170 (credit).


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The risks:

The primary risk i can see in the short term is an interest rate rise from the Fed. Some market participants suggest there's a 2/3 chance in favour that the fed will raise rates in December. The move in the Notes over the past month has likely factored most of this in so risk i do not believe is a whole lot from here on the Notes. Being 5 year on average is certainly more forgiving than longer in duration bonds.

Leverage: At least this is not a market condition. Given these are leveraged products you could very easily do some damage to yourself. You have to have some idea with the studies that you've done as to some ball-park idea of your maximum draw-down. Playing for the rainy days is a good mindset to have.

Although short term trades will be taken when the risk-reward meets certain requirements statistically speaking, the trade is meant to be held in some way, for a lengthy duration. As the market permits, we build to the desired ratio until we get the position in the desired range we're looking for and then sit on our hands for a while until the studies suggest we trim one side or the other.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Good idea


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Good idea


At least you can't say i am never considerate. 

Also, this definitely is a different idea than the old couch-tater sitting around waiting for something good to eventually happen.  But i guess that's a different story for another thread.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

The_Tosser said:


> The trade and idea is as follows,
> 
> Take a long positions in US 5 year note - futures. Take a corresponding short position in volatility futures around the 90 day mark in a ratio to bonds (contract ratio - not notional).
> 
> This does a couple of things. First of all the way it is positioned, you get a nice hedge, one to the other. IE In times of 'fear' where vix-short is taking it on the chin, bonds are generally doing well, and vis-versa. On top of this, both sides of the trade are generally swimming with the current so to speak when it comes to the requirement to roll the futures - VX monthly, Note futures 1/4ly. A win-win.




nice. nice. this will be a thread to watch.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

humble_pie said:


> nice. nice. this will be a thread to watch.


thank you.

I also hope it will be profitable to be 'in' too


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> At least you can't say i am never considerate.


No, I can't - I think you just like to have fun and/or challenge the stupidity/conformity (while sharing your knowledge )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> No, I can't - I think you just like to have fun and/or challenge the stupidity/conformity (while sharing your knowledge )


sounds pretty accurate to me  lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Completed the Notes roll from Dec to Mar.

received a credit of a hair over 16/32 when all was said and done.

New cost of March 119'007 all in.


Edit:

I should also note a few more important stats here. Both Bond and VIX are 1,000 multipliers for the future contracts. 

Margin of the bond is $750 per contract.

Margin for the vix contract is $7500 per contract. I am unaware of any credits when pairing but I'll double-check that for accuracy before saying anything more.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Related to the 5 year notes. I think this is a good buy point for more short-term debt in the 1 to 5 year range

XSB chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XSB.TO&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25886384597
SHY chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SHY&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22762558229

I bought more SCHO in my 401(k) today, which is essentially the same as SHY.

I still think these bond ETFs are a good place to park cash for low-risk USD exposure. For example, by holding SHY for the last year I'm up around 19% in CAD terms. You could also just hold cash in a US$ account but those amounts are not CDIC insured.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

You are having too much fun investing - always a bad sign.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

CPA Candidate said:


> You are having too much fun investing - always a bad sign.


lol!

Actually i am bored stiff right now!


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

As for me, I'm investing in flip-phone futures now that Adele has made them fashionable again in her newest hit song video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enu-qR0H_uk


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Count-down to Fed Funds rate.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Pushing 78% Prob of hike, currently.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Pre-selected 4 corporate bonds to buy on Dec 17th.. lol But will consider buying HUV or HVI before that if one of them drops to my target price ($25 and $10 respectively )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

5 yr notes doing well today so given short term trading profit being done (not counting any of this for the current running trade) I'm going to add short to dwti now net @ 120.00 even, a nice round number.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/commitment-of-traders-interest-rates.html

5 YR - Chart - Asset Manager. Looks like the net long side has been increasing their positions at this level since mid-Nov.

I don't read a whole lot into it either way but it's nice to see it fit my little bias. lol. This Friday we'll get the next data point.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Grand-Ma Yellin will be yellin' 12:25PM EST today. 

We should get some action today, hopefully on all fronts.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Ok, I'll try to play (entered limit Buy orders in case volatility spikes while we're away ):


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Selling MAR VIX @ 18.90 against notes..

will build to ratio in time > $19.XX


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Added a smidge to Mar vix short - net 18.95 now and will sit @ almost 1/2 of the ratio i want vs notes.

Sideline bets already mentioned but to keep it up to date.... took 12% on dust short this morning as per Goldcorp(G) thread. Took those gains which freed up a ton of margin and added to oil long @ $40 (DWTI now net short @ $131.00)

I'll wait to add if oil goes to $38 which makes dwti 170 or so.

I'll cover short mar vix short @ 18.50 if we get there. I'm not thinking so but if it does happen it'll be right at the wire 4PM EST i would imagine. I'll do 1/3 position for that cover.

EDIT: The notes over vix trade has been interesting lately. Both side got hammered yesterday - good thing i was only losing on one side. I now have both sides and both sides are adding to the coffers thus far. With all of this Fed wrangling on rate rise there has been a load of volatility in notes. It's been fun to say the least.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Added a smidge to Mar vix short - net 18.95 now and will sit @ almost 1/2 of the ratio i want vs notes.
> 
> I'll cover short mar vix short @ 18.50 if we get there. I'm not thinking so but if it does happen it'll be right at the wire 4PM EST i would imagine. I'll do 1/3 position for that cover.


lol. I guess i collimated the crystal ball well last night 

Covered that 1/3 @ 18.50 for 45 cents ($450 per contract) or approx 7.5% return on margin... any way you slice it we're lowering our costs basis on the struggling notes quite well. I will top it off to 1/2 the total vix short of position entered yesterday if we peg 18.20 by the close today.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> I will top it off to 1/2 the total vix short of position entered yesterday if we peg 18.20 by the close today.


30 sec left in after market - 18.30

too much coin to give up in one day. i did in total a full 2/3 covered. 65 cents, 10% ROM.

As is typical, the highs or lows for the day will regularly set right @ 4PM to 4:15PM EST.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Ok, I'll try to play (entered limit Buy orders in case volatility spikes while we're away ):
> 
> View attachment 7250


Well i would not chase it now, but damn you got screwed. 14 cents away. 

Well hey i gave my entry on the very next post mid-day so if taken there you would not have been alone. +9% close to close, sweet-Allah :smilet-digitalpoint what a day.

Edit:

Oh hey, because i just read it today. Do you still own that nat gas etf? They are most likely futures based and get hosed the same way as USO (oil) does. Yeah, don't buy that ****. Don't add to that ****. :cower: jmho as a solid general rule to follow.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Well i would not chase it now, but damn you got screwed. 14 cents away.


Yeah I got screwed twice this week - was itching to buy HUV on Wednesday, but got distracted by work lol:









It's ok, maybe will buy it on Monday - and if they have wifi on the beach, will be day-trading from Mexico :biggrin:



> Oh hey, because i just read it today. Do you still own that nat gas etf? They are most likely futures based and get hosed the same way as USO (oil) does. Yeah, don't buy that ****. Don't add to that ****. :cower: jmho as a solid general rule to follow.


No that particular sucker holds the actual mostly gassy companies: https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/etf/ETFholdings.aspx?Ticker=FCG But yeah, keeps falling like it's contango-ed - wish I sold it yesterday every day lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> ....but got distracted by work lol:



Bloody work, always getting in the way.




> But yeah, keeps falling like it's contango-ed - wish I sold it yesterday every day lol


lmao, have fun in MX.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

The_Tosser said:


> I thought it would be a good idea to cease further posting in the "What are you buying?" original thread. It just clutters up that thread needlessly as well as it doesn't seem like what i am doing is a proper fit.
> 
> For those interested it will be found here.
> 
> ...


 Global bond default rates have reached there highest rates since 2009. Fear/panic when its in the air can spread to the bond market. I think it was the bankers panic when interest rates sharply spiked to nearly 200%. 1/3 of Euro area government bonds are now below zero percent. If held to maturity the bonds will lose money. The only way for the holders of the bonds to make money is for interest rates to go lower & sell before maturity. This is a bubble in the bond market with everyone on one side of the trade. Playing the over crowded trade with the crowd is not a safe trade. Although it will keep on working till it stops working


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

lonewolf said:


> Global bond default rates have reached there highest rates since 2009. Fear/panic when its in the air can spread to the bond market. I think it was the bankers panic when interest rates sharply spiked to nearly 200%. 1/3 of Euro area government bonds are now below zero percent. If held to maturity the bonds will lose money. The only way for the holders of the bonds to make money is for interest rates to go lower & sell before maturity. This is a bubble in the bond market with everyone on one side of the trade. Playing the over crowded trade with the crowd is not a safe trade. Although it will keep on working till it stops working


So are you coming to help me find my escaped unicorn? 

Please see my plea in the other thread. You don't have to walk, i have another one you can ride while we look.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Speaking of unicorns... lol

"Now researchers have developed a process to create a virtually perfect monolayer of white graphene, making a dream team pairing of graphene and white graphene substrate for use in next generation electronic devices a possibility."

http://www.gizmag.com/white-graphene-electronics-ornl/40694/


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Kind of a side-bar trade for fun, but want to note it here. This one is also a scale-in job.

The minimum trade: short 1 Jan VIX contract, short 617 XIV @ current pricing. (17.90 X 29.15) It should get you $-35.89K notional area. Something like $18K margin so not the best use of funds I've ever seen.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

starting to re-add short Mar vix @ 18.75, now net 18.87 as bonds are running well today.

The note side is still underwater but the vix traded against it as the original premise has now made this trade green overall.

Being heavily weighted still on the note side seems right to me. I will continue to add to short-march to gain the required ratio but i am not overly inclined to move too quickly just yet.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> I'll wait to add if oil goes to $38 which makes dwti 170 or so.


yep..

$139.55 net

Looks like she's going parabolic as per august look. Not expecting that type of drop myself.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> starting to re-add short Mar vix @ 18.75, now net 18.87 as bonds are running well today.


At the wire yet again today Out that part taken earlier, 18.50 just under 40 cents.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> At the wire yet again today Out that part taken earlier, 18.50 just under 40 cents.


Starting back short Mar VIX again this AM with the dow already down 200. Sold @ 18.95, now net 18.91

I have a feeling we're gonna get > $19 prints soon enough.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Starting back short Mar VIX again this AM .............. Sold @ 18.95, now net 18.91



Added 19.15 now net $19.00

also removed some Notes @ 118'225 to lower position size overall, seeing as we're net green on the pair.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

@ The_Tosser, interesting thread. I'll continue to watch.

Just to confirm my understanding, this is all done with futures?

i.e. You are using VIX futures (not options), correct?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

avrex said:


> Just to confirm my understanding, this is all done with futures?
> 
> i.e. You are using VIX futures (not options), correct?


Yes, you are correct.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Another side-bet that can be ignored, but going short 1/5 position $USD/CAD @ 1.3575

I'd be gone by 1.3500 so not looking for much here.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Another side-bet that can be ignored, but going short 1/5 position $USD/CAD @ 1.3575
> 
> I'd be gone by 1.3500 so not looking for much here.


covered 1/2 +40 pips.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Kind of a side-bar trade for fun, but want to note it here. This one is also a scale-in job.
> 
> The minimum trade: short 1 Jan VIX contract, short 617 XIV @ current pricing. (17.90 X 29.15) It should get you $-35.89K notional area. Something like $18K margin so not the best use of funds I've ever seen.


Well that was pitiful but $80 net gains per minimum size. Just under +0.5% r-o-m for 2 days, lol. I'm gonna watch this and get back in if i get a chance but for now i want to concentrate on more efficient plays that are opening up. It's just a funzee trade.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Yay HVI is coming down again (and there's wifi on the beach, so can try to day trade )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Yay HVI is coming down again (and there's wifi on the beach, so can try to day trade )


if march vix hits 19.60 i'll start to add a bit at a time.... good to be heavy-bonds....

Boy i bet today's action pissed a few people off. lol. DOW was up 220 and now down 80, rofl. ouch!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Yay HVI is coming down again (and there's wifi on the beach, so can try to day trade )


why is it the market waits until you go on vacation before it gets interesting? lol. This sh*t just got real, lol. Mid term you know a short-vol works here.

XIV <$27

got my short mar @ 19.60, net $19.10 right now.

Added back $USD/CAD short that i covered earlier, now net 1.3588 short and this does not include gains on cover....

Taking money off the table and bettering cost basis... can't complain about that.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Moneytoo said:


> Ok, I'll try to play (entered limit Buy orders in case volatility spikes while we're away ):
> 
> View attachment 7250


Was gonna up the limit of my second HVI order to $10.50, but decided to go for a swim first - came back and the first order got executed @$10 lol:









Now what? $9.50? (I was drinking Tequila sunrise, but just ordered Mud Slide )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Selling some notes here on this rip 118'290

Looks like i am going to back-door that ratio, lol.

Target is 2 bond to 1 vix contracts.

Current ratio is 4:1



VIX-en, don't blow the wad in one shot is all i can say. M1 volatility-(solo) is merciless. I am definitely a scale-in and generally not a 'solo' player.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

I'm playing with ~2K (less than 1% of our total portfolio) for HVI (short VIX) and have a corporate bond picked out for my 5K December deposit when we come back (after Decwmber 16th, which is also my husband's birthday - did I tell you that one of my beliefs is syncing up with egregors? lol)

At any rate, I'm keeping our asset allocations and long-term holds intact, this is just a short-term game for fun (for me )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Target is 2 bond to 1 vix contracts.
> 
> Current ratio is 4:1


For ease of tracking until the ratio gets upset, the 4:1 works out to long notional cost @ $456.658-ish per set, with a 1000 Multiplier.

This doesn't include any recent gains because i like to keep myself always under the gun, feeling behind and never happy about the position :rugby:. The current market price is $456.000


Edit: Now that the contracts are all bundled and accounted for at the moment, the margin for each 4:1 set is $9.5K


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Added back $USD/CAD short that i covered earlier, now net 1.3588 short and this does not include gains on cover....
> 
> Taking money off the table and bettering cost basis... can't complain about that.


Exit for the second time on that first half today, call it +10 pips avg added to previous 40 earlier.

The 2nd half is currently + 30 pips with orders to cover half of that 1.3525

Yeah, definitely having too much fun. Almost beats a day @ the beach slamming Dos Equis :drunk:


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Weren't you told that investing should be boring, otherwise it's gambling? :biggrin:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Weren't you told that investing should be boring, otherwise it's gambling? :biggrin:


Well I always called it what it is, ........ it's gambling.

Unless you can find me a volatility recycling company i can couch-tater in


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

*ngksra eleventh*

What are you gonna do for fun if they make one? 

I just sold the "fool-proof volatility trading strategy" to my husband lol:

1) Buy 200 shares of HVI for $10
2) Sell for $12.50, buy 100 shares of HUV for $25
3) Sell for $30, buy 300 shares of HVI for $10
4) Rinse and repeat until... ummm... 2K turns into 10K? Then try repeating with 200K? :biggrin:

(Whoever comes up with those Captcha words should burn in hell lol)


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Moneytoo said:


> Weren't you told that investing should be boring, otherwise it's gambling? :biggrin:


 When Robert Prechtor won the United States trading championships & set the all time record percent increase option division (record still standing ?) the stress was so high @ times he had to lay in the fetal position to handle the stress. I have herd of very successful option traders that experience boredom between trades then sheer panic when placing a trade.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Whoa, stopped out of $USD.CAD short for + 10 pips on half of remaining and snagged 1/4 way down @ 1.3534 for 50-ish pips.

Just now went back to full 1/5 position short 1.3608

I don't really want this threads to be other than notes over volatility but this trade is lively!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> For ease of tracking until the ratio gets upset, the 4:1 works out to long notional cost @ $456.658-ish per set, with a 1000 Multiplier.
> 
> This doesn't include any recent gains because i like to keep myself always under the gun, feeling behind and never happy about the position :rugby:. The current market price is $456.000
> 
> ...



I see the market is getting beaten like a rented mule again today.

Yesterday this spread was knocked lower with bonds lagging and vix stalled. So far today the spread has gained ground as the notes are running even as the under-weighted short vix is now over 20 for March.

I've added to short Mar vix @ 20.20 to make the scorecard read net short @ $19.25


also added to short $usd/cad now net 1.3628 i guess we would calls this 3/10 position so far. I've not included in costs previous gains made on it this week.


EDIT: There's a lot of economic data out in US @ 8:30AM EST so this should be real interesting action soon.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

with oil down to $36 I am taking another piece of dwti short @ $195. Net $145 so clearly i am hedging the bet a little bit by not taking a larger tranche here.

Point to note. Last Aug on that oil drop/dwti run, when oil was $38, dwti was $230, now with oil @ $36 dwti is still < $200.

It's getting tough holding up oil, the CAD dollar and the US T-market all alone, I wish you people would pitch in! (lmao).

Seriously though, thus far today the account is flat which is pretty remarkable with markets down near 1%.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

VIX-en (Mi-2), Dec vix which is soon enough to expire has run over January. I know some people hitting XIV here 25.70ish.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Notes spiking here. taking some off @ 119'002

What Zeus giveth, Zeus can taketh. (What? you don't believe in Zeus?) Port +1% on this move for the day. No need to bugger it.

Backing into 3:1 ratio soon enough.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

"The more important big story is the mess of the markets today. The U.S. futures are getting hammered (down 150 points). There are a few reasons for this that include positioning before next week’s Fed and a whopper of a quadruple expiry next Friday, year-end positioning, the weakness in oil (the correlation between stock and oil prices in recent months has risen and running triple what it was in 2014), weak technical picture, and a general uneasiness about stocks and pretty much everything else. The greed/fear index is well into fear territory and sentiment has been deteriorating."

Yeah I'll see how HVI (CAD XIV) opens and maybe will up the limit (left it at $9.50 for now )


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Moneytoo said:


> Yeah I'll see how HVI (CAD XIV) opens and maybe will up the limit (left it at $9.50 for now )


Bought 100 more shares for $9.60 (right before it fell below $9.50 - "should've waited" (tm) lol) So now have 200 shares of HVI for average cost $9.80 - and debating how to spend I mean invest remaining 3.2K cash (was gonna buy more XEF, but ZCN (CDN Zeus?) has fallen more... )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

I'm idling all guns for now. These have been some big moves and my bets are in.

I too want to see what happens next week before committing much to either side of the Notes-Vix. It is net 'up' and the position has been scaled down.

The 2009 oil low was around $33 so that's the target i am now looking at after the Aug lows were breached today. Again idling the guns. I'm much happier long oil <$40 than $50, $60, $80, $100 lol.

Good luck!


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Bought 100 shares of XEF (as per our asset allocation - still playing by the potato rules lol) and 50 more shares of HVI @$19.16, no more cash for 10 days, will go keep enjoying life, ttyl


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

continuing to trim notes, 119'057 for gains..

lowest common denominator on ratio is now 9:4

I'll have to get that nation price once i bring up that crazy ratio...



EDIT: Avg gains on notes today only $150 per but not too shabby against $750 margin + 20% 

Current cost on crazy ratio is 992.729 ish


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Dumped enough long notes to get to desired ratio. those went out +$234 per contract approx 30% r-o-m.

218.447-ish at 2:1

that is bonds @ 118.94 and vix @ 19.43 area (i missed an 'add' on ya with vix, but you get that right here anyway - 20.60)


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

side-bet!

getting naked like a Bonobo......... selling ERX Jan 8, $22 puts @ $1.85 


Also, 

added to USD/CAD short net 1.3660

Holding all notes-vix @ 2:1

UVXY?? lol........ no comment  she's a rattle-snake.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Yay my VXX paper-trade would be completed today (I "bought" if for $18 and planned to sell for $24 - 30% gain in about a month... sigh )

Oh well, let's see how my real HVI trade plays out (I'll settle for 20% )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Yay my VXX paper-trade would be completed today (I "bought" if for $18 and planned to sell for $24 - 30% gain in about a month... sigh )
> 
> Oh well, let's see how my real HVI trade plays out (I'll settle for 20% )


lol.

UVXY short this morning. $4.60 (12%) In and OUT. I'll take that move and run  

Not a paper trade 

EDIT:

Boo, no linking of those imgs.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

adding a bit to notes here now 118'297 net (March).

Getting fractionally away from 2:1


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> adding a bit to notes here now 118'297 net (March).
> 
> Getting fractionally away from 2:1


Adding here @ 118'197 now net @ 118'285. I am moving towards 3:1

currently close to 2.5:1, looking for 118'120 area.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Dumped enough long notes to get to desired ratio. those went out +$234 per contract approx 30% r-o-m.
> 
> 218.447-ish at 2:1
> 
> that is bonds @ 118.94 and vix @ 19.43 area (i missed an 'add' on ya with vix, but you get that right here anyway - 20.60)


Just covered enough vix and bought final bits of notes to finish 3:1 ratio target leading into tomorrow.

vix was covered here @ 19.35 for small gains.

EDIT:

3:1 cost (less any prev gains as per usual) is 337.204

We shall see what tomorrow brings.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> side-bet!
> 
> ...........
> 
> ...


reached full stack for this round. 1.3730

This should play.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Dumped enough long notes to get to desired ratio. those went out +$234 per contract approx 30% r-o-m.
> 
> 218.447-ish at 2:1
> 
> that is bonds @ 118.94 and vix @ 19.43 area (i missed an 'add' on ya with vix, but you get that right here anyway - 20.60)


Peeling off some (covering) March short vix @ 18.65, +$0.78 cents. that's a decent move today. 10% r-o-m.


EDIT: now 6:1 @ 693.42


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Peeling off some (covering) March short vix @ 18.65, +$0.78 cents. that's a decent move today. 10% r-o-m.


Doing more of the same here this morning. I'm feeling like coasting a bit here.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Covering the rest of mar vix short. Between this morning and here about 40 cents. 5% r-o-m.

Now solo-notes @ 118.8094-ish

I would never pair bonds with either oil or usd/cad short but i do note the loose correlations and with both of them currently beating me like a rented Mexican mule, I'll take this pairing on this stretched move.

All of these levels will play, just not today.


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

I thought I should post a hello here because they say it's not good to be talking only to yourself all the time :topsy_turvy:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> I thought I should post a hello here because they say it's not good to be talking only to yourself all the time :topsy_turvy:


lmao, thank you. Mi-2 stops in once in awhile, shows her pics of MX, then leaves.

I'm assuming she's back home now, but maybe not.

I recognize that non-traders aka couch-taters and the like may not be interested in the least in non-lazy 'investing', and that's OK, because i wouldn't waste my time in a thread like theirs either.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> lmao, thank you. Mi-2 stops in once in awhile, shows her pics of MX, then leaves.
> 
> I'm assuming she's back home now, but maybe not.


Hey you told me not to clutter your thread, so I apologized and deleted my Mexican shooting-spree posts 

Have nothing to say on the subject yet, sitting with HVI (CAD XIV ETF) that I bought last week, put in a limit sell order at 20% from my purchase price - and talking to a guy from RFD Investing forum who bought a shitload of it, wanted to sell it yesterday at cost, I convinced him to wait till the end of year (or at least till this Friday) - and of course HVI fell today, hope he didn't sell... I surely didn't 

Back home tomorrow night, I like this game, and read your posts every day - but you know what you're doing and don't need a cheerleader, so I'm silently here, but glad that OMO took a pity on you


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Have nothing to say on the subject yet, sitting with HVI (CAD XIV ETF) that I bought last week, put in a limit sell order at 20% from my purchase price - and talking to a guy from RFD Investing forum who bought a shitload of it, wanted to sell it yesterday at cost, I convinced him to wait till the end of year (or at least till this Friday) - and of course HVI fell today, hope he didn't sell... I surely didn't
> 
> Back home tomorrow night, I like this game, and read your posts every day..



I took the 'US version' (XIV long) in a couple of accounts that can't handle futures. Avg was $25, exit @ $27.50 yesterday. I don't plan on taking it again too soon. We're coasting into 2016 with what we've got, which ain't much.

I didn't want to do too many side-bets and felt XIV was just a duplicate of other trades i had on so I did not mention it in detail. That trade right there was a pretty serious gain of the account percentage, having easily 50% and more of the account into it as it dropped sub $23.

I guess this is the thing about this thread. This thread is distinctly not CMF couch-tater or buy-and-coma. It's also not equity based. It's different than the norm and as such is open to anyone interested in not being lazy or simply passively buying stocks. 

It can't be done in all types of accounts and therefore some trades need modifying (vix trades for one) or they simply can't really be effectively done at all. We all get that and we can freely ignore at will. No one has a gun to their head.

What i've shown is simply trading off correlated pairs and making a move only when the market does. I don't -can't- know which way anything is going to go and as you can see it's doesn't matter a whole lot. I just take what has been dealt, scale around the size and the ratio and try to keep it up with costs, ratio etc in this thread for anyone interested in the concept. The concept set out at the beginning suggests a win on both sides in the longer run yet they both hedge the other on top of that. It's a fairly stable trade and this has been a very volatile few weeks. 

I've made pains to be very fair and not count any trading gains and only start the 'count' once i hit a ratio i am happy with. I will admit the ratio gets changed regularly but it's because that's the market we've been dealt. I could easily walk away from this trade right now, taking a loss on the notes that i have (000'080 - $250 per contract) and still take away a couple of percent on the account over the past 5 weeks (or less??). I won't because i happen to like solo-notes a fair amount and i really love having nothing 'long' the market other than that pain in the *** oil long. It's a good trade or at least those holding commodity stocks over the past 6 months to a year better hope so, lol, but for the here and now it's not going anywhere. It'll pay off and pay off well is my guess,..just not tomorrow. Time is on my side with it. No doubt there.

Have a safe flight back home Mi-2, and yes i can appreciate a good shot. I didn't know if it was pistol, long iron, standing, squatting, laying down, 10 yards, 25 yards etc... Either way that's a nice grouping. Mission Impossible 2  I knew the name would stick.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

I also keep feeding stray cats, so you can call me Meow2 lol I reeeaaalllyy like this one, so cute and cuddly, wish I could bring him home with me *sigh*:









As for volatility trading, I'm betting on Santa rally. But if it doesn't happen, unless the markets start crashing, sooner or later volatility will come down more - and I only have a tiny bit in HVI, so can sit with it for months and years 

I'll buy a 5 year corporate bond next week (as was planned) The way I see it, I need to tie up 5K to make $700-$800. So if I can learn to swing-trade VIX/XIV and make about the same in a matter of weeks/months - that'd be great. I'm still somewhat sceptical as I understand if it were that easy - more people would be doing it. But paper-trading was easy enough, and once I get more comfortable - I'll be playing with larger amounts. 

So thank you for posting your trades and explanations - I can't say that I understand everything, but maybe others do/will (and somebody will even be able to reproduce them )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> ...I'm still somewhat sceptical as I understand if it were that easy - more people would be doing it.


Well that is the most common reason to be had. It comes out of gross ignorance from retail investors because no-one else i know thinks this way.

In your thread a few months ago we talked about the SPX options trading program for only one of many examples i can give you. It has long been proven to best the underlying, yet no-one (retail investor) does it even though they easily enough could. Again, they can't in RRSP, TFSA but everywhere else they can. In those types of accounts i play vix etf/etn only as a matter of fact. That's all the ever gets traded.

People are trained to be lazy and passive about investing and that's all there is to it. The entire industry has given them this great advice citing nothing but dated nonsense which includes key phrases such as 'you can't time the market' and 'nothing (trading) beats buy and hold' (or some similar phraseology).

Obviously i find it a pathetic argument. I'd much rather risk an under-performing year once in a while in order to obtain gains much higher and with more frequency. Retail investors will not have a bit of that type of talk.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Have nothing to say on the subject yet, sitting with HVI (CAD XIV ETF)......


Mony mony ride that VIX pony...... since the exit was spot on, some $3 higher i was forced to nibble long XIV in non-fut accounts, 24.50 on average.

I believe and hope we do get pounded more, so most of the powder will be set ablaze, lower. Dodged that long-equity bullet again


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Oh wow looks like I missed another fun day in the markets :biggrin: 

Yeah need to get into a habit of keeping some cash around - but oh well, it's hard to get off the couch 

*Upd. From Keith Richards*, one of the frequent BNN guests that I like:

*Strategy*

I plan on selling several of the stocks and ETF’s I hold — likely in the first week or two of January as/if/when the market reaches the 2100 area. I have a list of individual sell targets on about half of my current holdings – although I expect to actually reach my sell points on about half of them. Should the market sell off as I expect, I’ll look to re-enter with the cash. Should the market blow though 2100 to the upside – I’ll rotate into the new leaders. Better to buy on a dip – or buy the new leaders at higher prices than to do nothing and hope it all works out. I have mentioned throughout my BNN appearances that buy and hold or low portfolio turnover is ineffective in this market. Case in point: our turnover in 2015 has been 260 perceent. Our strong performance numbers vs. the NA indices and the majority of buy & hold portfolio managers proves the merit of such an approach.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/18/T...-BBT-and-Chemtrade-Logistics-Income-Fund.aspx


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Mony mony ride that VIX pony...... since the exit was spot on, some $3 higher i was forced to nibble long XIV in non-fut accounts, 24.50 on average.


yeah, exited here @ $25.40 after hours. +4% from Friday. Gotta take it.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> yeah, exited here @ $25.40 after hours. +4% from Friday. Gotta take it.


And I'm still waiting for that Santa rally :biggrin:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> And I'm still waiting for that Santa rally :biggrin:


lol we had it, didn't we? rofl.

I think this thing could run but I'm in a different boat at the moment so I took it off. The non-fut account is now 100% cash and +16% for the year. It was cash most of the time too, otherwise it was playing vix. I wanted to end on a good note for 2015 and sit around for better opportunities that will certainly show up, in 2016.

I want to keep the good mojo going on it.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> lol we had it, didn't we? rofl.


Oh well, will wait for Easter Bunny or July Honey or some other rally that brings HVI to $11.69 so I can make my 20% lol:


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

"To recap, we discussed how chemical and physical changes in the brain due to gains and losses on your investments influence the decision-making process. As volatility traders, we can take advantage of this information by clearly seeing through the market turmoil and making decisions based on evidence (past and present) rather than emotion. By understanding the parameters that volatility futures will trade in, the usual highs and usual lows based on the current scenario and historical figures, you can plan out your trade to encompass the three areas of neuroeconomics. By weighing all possible scenarios, you can be better prepared to follow through with your trade and increase the chances of profitability. As we have discussed, our natural instinct is to sell and save rather than to wait and gain. If I could pick the most common word out of my volatility articles here on Seeking Alpha, it would be patience and the science behind your decision making agrees."

Neuroeconomics And Volatility


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

I just looked at the return for this year for XIV. -17% lol (that's minus 17 percent).

Yeah i think we killed it.

Until we get a decent market correction that lasts more than a day or two, I think trading it around will easily be the best way to go. Don't think you're going to be left at the station. It's highly unlikely even though it may seem like it once in a while.

Stick to your guns. Buy those monster-drops and scale it in. You'll be fine in any reasonable time frame. What is more, the probability of such is extremely high which makes this a trade head and shoulders above most. It's why it's the only trade i do in non-fut accounts. You don't need anything else.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Don't think you're going to be left at the station. It's highly unlikely even though it may seem like it once in a while.
> 
> Stick to your guns. Buy those monster-drops and scale it in. You'll be fine in any reasonable time frame.


Yeah when I saw yet another spooky article this morning: Extra Volatility Please - History Shows The Next 3 Months Could Be Choppy, I got a bit nervous (that I'm on the wrong side of the trade) So found the other one (that I quoted in the previous post) to remind myself to stay the course 

My December 5K transfer is in. Will hold off buying that bond that I wanted, it's not going anywhere, but maybe will buy more HVI if it drops under $9 again 

Speaking of bonds... I've been watching BMO Mid-Term US IG Corporate Bond Index ETF (ZIC) since the summer, hoping it'll go down after the raise - and it went further up instead! Almost +17% YTD... Do you think it's because CAD keeps going down - or because "global investors cut their equity holdings in December and raised their exposure to bonds" - or both/something else?..

Trying to understand "cause and effect"...


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

I think you should stop reading all of that nonsense.

Look at what reading that stuff does to your psyche. Nothing good and none of it will change the outcome. All it does is turn your mind upside down and cause you to worry far more than you ever need to. It is a zero added value exercise.

Look @ the reams of people right here on this site not worried one bit about solar power and green energy with oil @ $100 and their oily stocks running, but now holy ****, it's oil to $20 and solar power will run 95% of energy needs of the world in the next 4 days. 

It's ridiculous. A total waste of time.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> I think you should stop reading all of that nonsense.
> 
> Look at what reading that stuff does to your psyche.


Yeah but how else would I know what other gamblers are feeling/thinking :biggrin: This way I can observe my initial reaction - and choose not to react.. 

As for Oil & Co., apparently "It is now clear the commodity index concept does not work and needs to be fundamentally rethought or abandoned altogether.

If you want to invest in commodity markets, the only choice is to pick a hedge fund or another active manager, and hope their skill and luck lasts."

Commodity indexes inflict more losses on pension funds


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Yeah but how else would I know what other gamblers are feeling/thinking :biggrin: This way I can observe my initial reaction - and choose not to react..


What do you care about how others are feeling? That article just now put it in your head and there's no proof or concept that that info is worth anything at all.

Investing is simple. You want to generate the best possible risk-reward money out there. That's it. That's all. You need to start there.

People do anything but that.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> If you want to invest in commodity markets, the only choice is to pick a hedge fund or another active manager, and hope their skill and luck lasts."


If you want to invest in commodity markets, have a damn plan which includes asking yourself why you would want to even bother investing in it at all. Active managers are no guarantee. They don't have half the amount invested in your success as you do and they're not doing anything smarter than you could be doing.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

I'm just bored at work 'cause I'm back from vacation and it's pre-holiday production-freeze - and you're mean...


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> I'm just bored at work 'cause I'm back from vacation and it's pre-holiday production-freeze - and you're mean...


No I'm not mean, I'm just a realist.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

^VIF over ^VIN sure is starting to show some range. ? ? ?


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> ^VIF over ^VIN sure is starting to show some range. ? ? ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vif ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vin ?

sigh...

Volatility futures vs inverse volatility?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

http://www.cboe.com/micro/vin/

http://www.cboe.com/micro/other-volatility-indicators.aspx


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

"CBOE publishes the near-term and next-term VIX “components”, σ1 and σ2 , under ticker symbols “VIN”(CBOE Near-Term VIX) and “VIF” (CBOE Far-Term VIX) every 15 seconds during each CBOE tradingday.

*STEP 3*: Calculate the 30-day weighted average of σ21 and σ22. Then take the square root of that valueand multiply by 100 to get VIX."

http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf

Ummm... is there a version for dummies? lol Why it's important when they starting to show some range?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Why it's important when they starting to show some range?


Just something i see here and there. I've not yet seen anything concrete i can do with it. Let's see what happens this time around so we can start to jump to all sorts of silly conclusions  

Go oil, go CAD.... lol Your Santa rally has happened a bit here for me...


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Congrats - and early merry Christmas!


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I find it extremely interesting that "volatility" and VIX-derivative products have been incredibly popular in the last handful of years, ever since the ZIRP & QE stimulus started.

I see this pop up in various message forums and even among friends of mine. You must remember that these VIX linked products are pretty far removed from pricing reality. *You cannot arbitrage them and therefore there is no natural price discovery*, unlike a plain stock ETF. They're exotic products.

If history is any guide, the popularity of VIX trading (and the low volatility trade) suggests to me that VIX will either blow up in the coming years (i.e. go "off the charts") or several of these ETFs will fail. We may have gotten an early sign of this when VIX "froze" and was not calculated properly on August 24. This was not simply due to a sharp decline in the S&P 500. Stocks have dropped far more in the past and VIX was still calculated. This time, however, VIX malfunctioned.

To you gamblers, have fun out there, but don't say nobody warned you about a VIX blowup. You can't have so many retail people trading in this space and not expect to get hurt. When retail crowds into something, _they always get hurt._


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

james4beach said:


> To you gamblers, have fun out there, but don't say nobody warned you about a VIX blowup. You can't have so many retail people trading in this space and not expect to get hurt. When retail crowds into something, _they always get hurt._


Yeah I can see it with ZCN lol Here're my "paper portfolios" that I use to test the ideas - so far HUV (CAD VIX Short Term Futures ETF) is a clear winner:









Seriously though, I'm treading the waters rather carefully - and consider volatility trading as a potential "portfolio performance enhancement" which I plan to use in addition to, not instead of long-term holds  But haven't completed my first real HVI (CAD Inverse VIX ETF) trade yet, so can't say if it worked or not


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

I just leave the useless jaw-boning for people that don't actually play the markets. They seem to be complete experts on the securities they've never traded.  rofl.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> But haven't completed my first real HVI (CAD Inverse VIX ETF) trade yet, so can't say if it worked or not


You could exit that thing right now with a very good gain. What would it hurt to do so?


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> You could exit that thing right now with a very good gain. What would it hurt to do so?


3.6% or 97 bucks minus 5 dollar commission is a very good gain? Maybe I need to adjust my expectations then - I was aiming for at least 10%...


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> 3.6% or 97 bucks minus 5 dollar commission is a very good gain? Maybe I need to adjust my expectations then - I was aiming for at least 10%...


i thought you bought @ $9 or 10% gainer, but i guess not.

Other than that, what is wrong with 3.6% in a couple of weeks on something that needs to be traded not held, until we get a correction we can use?

Remember i pulled off 16% for the year in total sleeper-mode trading only something that was down 17% for the year to that point in time. Chiseling away works. This is not the buy and hold moment of a lifetime here


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> i thought you bought @ $9 or 10% gainer, but i guess not.


No, I started buying @ $10 and bought more on the way down to $9 and then ran out of cash lol So i have 250 shares at the average cost of $9.6727 



> Other than that, what is wrong with 3.6% in a couple of weeks on something that needs to be traded not held, until we get a correction we can use?


I guess I thought because I'm trying this in registered accounts, it's better to trade less often for larger gains. I.e. I liked the "making a good profit eventually" idea when trading inverse volatility:

"Volatility has a return to mean behavior, and volatility futures are almost always in contango—which erodes the value of VXX. If you buy inverse volatility when the VIX is relatively high, your chances of making a good profit eventually are very good."

but ignored "All your gains can evaporate in a big hurry if the market corrects or crashes." warning 

http://sixfigureinvesting.com/2011/0...winner-is-xiv/



> Remember i pulled off 16% for the year in total sleeper-mode trading only something that was down 17% for the year to that point in time. Chiseling away works. This is not the buy and hold moment of a lifetime here


Yeah I guess I'm not a trader but the gambler... lol It's a different mentality, I haven't developed it yet - I keep thinking that it's better to wait and make $250-500 in one go (and pay commissions once) than buy-sell 3-5 times


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

There are other weird risks with the ETFs and ETNs, in particular.

The US regulators have been debating for some time what to do with the exotic ETFs. It's possible they will blindside the market with a decision on this. Certainly is a big risk for commodity ETFs and anything employing leverage like the 2x, 3x or inverse ones. Any exotic ETF has regulatory danger.

With ETNs their unique risk is that they are unsecured debt notes of the issuer. If there is a change in creditworthiness of the issuer, or heaven forbid if the issuer goes bankrupt, then the price plummets or could even become worthless overnight. If you're using ETNs, you had better be familiar with the balance sheet health of the issuer, their credit rating, and cashflow status.

Additionally the exotic ETFs are known to make some enormous year end distributions which can slash the share price. Depending on your tax scenario, that could be disastrous.

The only known safe ETFs are the traditional vanilla ones, like XIU and SPY that simply hold a basket of liquid stocks.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

james4beach said:


> The only known safe ETFs are the traditional vanilla ones, like XIU and SPY that simply hold a basket of liquid stocks.


Why aren't you buying them then? 

I'm sure one day you'll be right. About something. And I'll regret not listening to your warnings. About everything...


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

> Why aren't you buying them then?


Because I think we're in a bear market and I think I'll be able to buy stocks cheaper, or under better risk/reward conditions.

You can do as you please. I think I've been clear about why I do what I do. And if you want to see what (minor) speculation I'm involved in, there's a thread for that too with my exact portfolio.



> I'm sure one day you'll be right


The TSX is at the same level as 2010. Five years with no (nominal) gains, and the economy is tanking.

I've been saying for years that I'm bearish and that I avoid stocks. If you don't see me as being "right" then it's possible you're only seeing what you want to see. That's a common problem with perpetually bullish investors.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> I guess I thought because I'm trying this in registered accounts, it's better to trade less often for larger gains. I.e. I liked the "making a good profit eventually" idea when trading inverse volatility:


Sure, but i think it's important to be reasonable about your potential for profits for a given move, market conditions, term structure etc. The difference between 4% and 10% is razor thin too which doesn't help a lot but as quoted, you can give that 4% away just as quickly in this type of environment.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

james4beach said:


> The TSX is at the same level as 2010. Five years with no (nominal) gains, and the economy is tanking.
> 
> I've been saying for years that I'm bearish and that I avoid stocks. If you don't see me as being "right" then it's possible you're only seeing what you want to see. That's a common problem with perpetually bullish investors.


James, you pissed away a chance of a lifetime, Mr DoomPorn, NeverLong. If you couldn't find a way to get long anywhere in 2009, 2010, again after 20% ES pullback in 2011, 2012 etc etc etc. you'll NEVER get long equity for any reason.

If you can't see that, which it's clear you can't, you don't have anything to say that is worth listening to. Who cares where the TSX is but it's laughable that you quote only it and no other actual well-rounded index, rofl.

And for the record the last thing i am is a perma-bull (I hate this market right here which is why i am trading with more frequency), but you definitely are a perma-bear. You pissed away the best chance you'll ever have.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Tosser, I think you should punish me by buying more stocks. For god sake, please leverage into it too. You deserve what will come of it.

Time will tell whether I pissed away a chance. I think stock buyers are making a huge mistake by buying indices like the S&P 500 that have been completely inflated and pumped up by ZIRP and QE.

I've invested through two down cycles before: 2001 and 2008 bears. Since the start of my investing lifetime, I have repeatedly dodged the worst turmoil and volatility and not been wiped out like other speculators. My track record is pretty good especially in identifying and avoiding trouble in the markets.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

james4beach said:


> Tosser, I think you should punish me by buying more stocks. For god sake, please leverage into it too. You deserve what will come of it.
> 
> Time will tell whether I pissed away a chance. I think stock buyers are making a huge mistake by buying indices like the S&P 500 that have been completely inflated and pumped up by ZIRP and QE.


You're a fool James, just go away. You know darn well i own no stocks, have no short vix and am long as my major position US t-notes.

Stopping being a dumbass spouting nonsense you know are lies before you write them. Take a hike from my thread, idiot. 

The proof is right there. When it was game time, you sat on the bench like the fool everyone here knows you are.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Were you always such a tosser?

What game time? This isn't a sporting event or a casino. We're talking about real money and peoples retirements on the line.

You seem to have the same bearish stance as me. So why all the critique?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

james4beach said:


> Were you always such a tosser?
> 
> What game time? This isn't a sporting event or a casino. We're talking about real money and peoples retirements on the line.
> 
> You seem to have the same bearish stance as me. So why all the critique?


Get out of my thread James. You offer nothing anyone needs to hear. What you've personally done over the last several years is on record. That's all anyone needs to know.
I've been a bear, trading to the long side for at least a year. I do it because that's the way it's going. I don't try and force my ideas on the market because i want to earn money. You on the other hand will sit and cry wolf continuously, all the while never even leaving the bench.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

You are joining a highly popular and crowded trade in the VIX space.

You've cobbled together this pair trade in a way that you think offers you a hedge. I've got news for you. The strategy is a crowded trade. There's a hedge fund down the street from my office that employs more or less the same concept, using US treasuries as the risk offset.

_Everybody_ thinks those two things offset each other. And you're highly leveraged in futures for god sake ... you're going to get destroyed!

You think you're hedged, but it will blow up on you. You will have zero hedge.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

You know jack about what i am doing other than what i have offered here. You know even less about playing the markets in general and are in a vacuum with vix completely.

It's time to leave James.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

> You think you're hedged, but it will blow up on you. You will have zero hedge.


lol, in the new year i may give more trades i regularly do that makes this look as silly as the rest of your drivel. You are clueless. 
Instead of spending your time dooming, why don't you spend it creating a trading plan that is worth something. Oh wait, you can't. The bench is just too safe of a place to move from.

All you're doing is exactly what everyone here knows you do best -> more DoomPorn.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> reached full stack for this round. 1.3730
> 
> This should play.


Nasty.

It was with a lot of trading from 1.4000 area to get this pig in order. I'm removing everything down to 3/5 size and am still down about 10 pips on remaining (currently 1.3830 is price) and this does include the trading PnL's over the past 2 weeks. Nasty.

We shall see how this goes moving forward but for now Santa continues to throw his presents down my chimney that i will take.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> We shall see how this goes moving forward but for now Santa continues to throw his presents down my chimney that i will take.


And I'll wait for Father Frost lol:






*PS* Oh perfect - finally found a website that told me to do what I wanted to do, STAY LONG lol: canadabulls on HVI 

Latest Pattern:
BEARISH EVENING STAR

"Candlesticks warned us today to be on alert with a new bearish pattern. Market attention is now on the downside. SHORT is a dangerous signal. Sudden increases in prices can lead to huge losses." yada-yada...


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

The_Tosser said:


> Instead of spending your time dooming, why don't you spend it *creating a trading plan* that is worth something. Oh wait, you can't. The bench is just too safe of a place to move from.


Tosser, only a fool thinks that trading activity is necessary for successful investing.

Investing is about so much more than looking busy and moving shares and securities around. Why do you feel compelled to make trades and create account activity? Do you feel compelled to _look busy?_


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Nasty.
> 
> It was with a lot of trading from 1.4000 area to get this pig in order. I'm removing everything down to 3/5 size and am still down about 10 pips on remaining (currently 1.3830 is price) and this does include the trading PnL's over the past 2 weeks. Nasty.
> 
> We shall see how this goes moving forward but for now Santa continues to throw his presents down my chimney that i will take.



Starting to add back to USD/CAD short, 60 pips higher than the above cover. 7/10 at the moment. Looking for 1.3925 and 1.3975 areas to add back to full-position.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

> The vast majority of market strategists were certain that equities would outperform bonds as 2015 began. But, as famed Merrill Lynch prognosticator Bob Farrell famously noted, “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.”
> 
> The poor track record of the consensus view makes Bloomberg’s “How to Be the Ultimate Contrarian Investor in 2016” an important read for investors. This is particularly true since one of the contrarian ideas is that the loonie will rise relative to the U.S. dollar in 2016,
> 
> ...


Top Links: The best investment advice of 2015


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Seems like the FX market is hesitant to surpass 1.400

Tosser you're looking to sell USD around 1.3925 - 1.3975 ... that's more or less what I'm thinking too, with a bunch of USD that I want to sell


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Interesting turn around in the afternoon from NEUTRAL to STRONG BUY for XIV: http://www.investing.com/etfs/velocityshares-daily-inverse-vix-technical 

(But will keep my USD holdings intact... )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Starting to add back to USD/CAD short, 60 pips higher than the above cover. 7/10 at the moment. Looking for 1.3925 and 1.3975 areas to add back to full-position.


Got that first target for the USD/CAD short. Not much, only got to 7.5/10 before the reversal.

Adding to March Notes here to get back to size. 118'120, cost on her is 118'216-ish

I'll start covering that added currency closer to net all-in costs @ 1.3836 area if we get there.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Got that first target for the USD/CAD short. Not much, only got to 7.5/10 before the reversal.
> 
> .....
> 
> I'll start covering that added currency closer to net all-in costs @ 1.3836 area if we get there.


Holy Forkin' Spoonful, there's 100pips in your face.. lol.

Beginning the covering.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> lol


that is sick and completely up my alley.

Got the position down to 45% of 'full' before that bounce. No plans to add it back today unless something gets real to the upside again. If we get closer to 1.3800 I'll cover some more off.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Well I'm still holding HVI (was tempted to sell it this morning for $10.19, but I believe I can do better - yes, I know, faith should've nothing to do with it, but that's all I have lol Lowered the sell limit to $10.49 - for now, still watching )

Got $225 in dividends from USD ETFs, thinking to try a tiny VXX play: 

1) Buy 12 shares for $18.75
2) Sell for $22.50
3) Make 20% $45 - $5 commission = 40 bucks lol

Yeah just baby steps at this point - because I like this game, but need to get my own understanding of how to play it


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> yes, I know, faith should've nothing to do with it,





From Dec 9th


> Another side-bet that can be ignored, but going short 1/5 position $USD/CAD @ 1.3575


So i edged more out @ 1.3819 and am now green overall. I reference above as original entry price. I'm now sitting on 1/10 pos size yet short-costs due to scaling and trading is > 200 pips higher.

I'll take a winning ****-trade anyday, i guess. I think the avg scale-in was 1.3730-ish with the balance being just trading it around.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Looks like USD/CAD is making a run this morning again. If it gets above 1.3900, I'll be selling a bunch of USD there.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Adding to March Notes here to get back to size. 118'120, cost on her is 118'216-ish


Added to notes again here this morning @ 118'027, cost (not including trading gains from it or vix gains against it) is 118'190. It's hard to believe i was selling this 2 weeks ago @ 119'080 lol

I'm getting heavy on notes at this point and am in no way interested in playing the other side (vix) here. Notes have gotten very beaten up lately, with prices all the way back to 6 months ago and earlier and yields over 1.8%. That yield has not been seen in a sustained way since early 2011.

I think this level plays at least, but it's not going to be tomorrow. I'm basically looking at break-even of yesterday's highs so i think i am in the ball-park. 

Still no equity or vix in hand in either direction, just sitting around watching oil flail around 36.50 area a buck or two.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I realize it's just a side trade of yours, but USDCAD really flying now. 1.3914


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

From this morning's BNN newsletter (FWIW kinda thing ):

"On currencies, the Canadian dollar is showing a little weakness but above 70 cents. Also, keep an eye on the Yuan as its relationship with the U.S. dollar saw a fresh more than four-and-a-half-year low. For Canadian dollar bulls, note that Dennis Gartman says this morning with reference to the loonier “…henceforth the only way we shall trade the Canadian dollar is from the long side,” noting either it is materially cheap or the U.S. dollar is materially expensive."

VIX Futures are up, HVI is down - but a little bit, and still above my average cost, so will keep practising patience... lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> ....note that Dennis Gartman says....


Enough said.

That guy is dumb as a f**king stump. Is he long gold in umbrella or candy-cane terms still? lol.

EDIT:

FIRST search item when searching for "Cartman's" BS.. http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/12/dennis-gartman-is-a-fraud-in-yen-terms-gld-slv-iau-ugl-uup-agq/ 

lmfao. If you've watched this jackass for any length of time you'll get this completely and probably piss your pants laughing, again.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> lmfao. If you've watched this jackass for any length of time you'll get this completely and probably piss your pants laughing, again.


Ok, ok, I never heard oh him - but he kinda supported your USD/CAD Short trade, so just quoted the news


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Ok, ok, I never heard oh him - but he kinda supported your USD/CAD Short trade, so just quoted the news


that scared me out! rofl.

I can't re-hit it now


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Notes have gotten very beaten up lately, with prices all the way back to 6 months ago and earlier and yields over 1.8%. That yield has not been seen in a sustained way since early 2011.


And that 5 year BBB+ Brookflield Infrastructure bond that I've been watching (matures 30/10/2020 with 3.54 coupon) keeps going in the wrong direction lol:


*Date**Price**Yield*Nov 6101.173.28Dec 4101.493.21Dec 30101.813.13


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Added to notes again here this morning @ 118'027, cost (not including trading gains from it or vix gains against it) is 118'190.


With the Notes running decently since yesterday afternoon and into this morning, i am taking an ever so small (near insignificant) short vix in both April and July. This is really hedging a short-vix play being this far out. Vix short is still a hard sell to me here but ya gotta do what ya gotta do.

VIX: Apr @ 19.40 short, July @ 20.10 short.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Mmm, huge PMI miss today. The worst print since mid-2009.

This should continue to make doomers and 'notes'-holders happy. lol. We shall see.

EDIT:

https://www.ism-chicago.org/insidepages/reportsonbusiness/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_Managers'_Index


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> VIX: Apr @ 19.40 short, July @ 20.10 short.



lol i'll double that to about 10:1 ratio. 

It's still ridiculously small but the whole premise is to trade notes vs vix and notes just tagged daily highs as market gets a year-end kick to the nads.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

May The Frost be with you! :biggrin:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> VIX: Apr @ 19.40 short, July @ 20.10 short.





> lol i'll double that to about 10:1 ratio.


lol it rarely pays to be a doomer.

Covered that July @ $19.90 for a quick +1% as it hits the lows for the day.

I'll hold the Apr short @ $19.40 as Notes pullback and the market rebounds hard. 

EDIT:

The move of the day @ this end has got to be oil as it bounces its head off $38 resistance.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Added to notes again here this morning @ 118'027, cost (not including trading gains from it or vix gains against it) is 118'190.


Just exited that 118'027 buy here @ 118'127

I am way up on vix against Notes and am taking this move as a chance to trim since i am pretty heavy.

Holy Dubai fire under my Notes today.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> lol it rarely pays to be a doomer.
> 
> Covered that July @ $19.90 for a quick +1% as it hits the lows for the day.


Added back that July vix short again @ same price as original entry, 20.10 @ close.

c'mon Mi-2 trade that HIV in-out-in-out 

EDIT: Oops. HVI..


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Added back that July vix short again @ same price as original entry, 20.10 @ close.
> 
> c'mon Mi-2 trade that HIV in-out-in-out
> 
> EDIT: Oops. HVI..


Yeah it was a funny fake in the afternoon - just when I thought that Father Frost decided to reward my patience (that I think I over-trained while learning to time the market lol), the markets reversed again... 

(Funny typo! lol Wish I bought HVU on Tuesday, would've traded it in-out-in-out today... HVI is too safe of a play )

Happy New Year, thank you for being a breath of fresh air on this forum!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Happy New Year, thank you for being a breath of fresh air on this forum!


You have a good one too.

Here's to success 2016


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

> Added to notes again here this morning @ 118'027, cost (not including trading gains from it or vix gains against it) is 118'190.





The_Tosser said:


> Just exited that 118'027 buy here @ 118'127
> 
> I am way up on vix against Notes and am taking this move as a chance to trim since i am pretty heavy.
> 
> Holy Dubai fire under my Notes today.


Sweet diddley, exiting 3/4 pos right here @ 118'200 lol.

I won't be taking any loss on Notes from here and will end up going solo vix short due to the minimal amount held as well as the distance out on the TS curve.


EDIT:

I'll summarize this trade soon.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Mi-2, I'm starting the buy process on XIV <$24 here for all non-futures accounts.

I'm starting small. I may as well kick off the year right by being conservative. All accounts were cash going into today. ES -35 (1.65%) sounds good to me for the first trading day of 2016 rofl.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Yeah when I saw VIX futures up 10%, my first thought, "Yay will buy more HVI!" (The second, "And ZCN if TSX also drops!" lol)

What's "ES - 35"?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> What's "ES - 35"?


SP500 - Futures. They're down 35 or about 2% today as china busts over night.

EDIT:

btw i am serious here. I am small in XIV and equiv. I'm also not in most shoes being ballsdeep long stock already so i can actually afford to be heavier but am choosing not to.

Jan vix has run over Feb vix so there's no real rush to push all the chips in, not even close! It's Jan 4th, let's just calm down here. 2016 is gonna be a good year.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> VIX: Apr @ 19.40 short, July @ 20.10 short.


added to July @ $20.70. Net 20.30 short

Being this far out on the curve give us time to work it.

2016, in your face


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Bought 200 ZCN and 50 more HVI, waiting if HVI falls more to buy another 100 (the HVI position will be ~1% of our total portfolio - and I'll be out of cash again till my next deposit in two weeks... lol)

Also need to buy some USD for our daughter's March break trip to the states - do you think there's a chance of another BoC rate cut? Wonder if I should try to buy some in January...


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Also need to buy some USD for our daughter's March break trip to the states - do you think there's a chance of another BoC rate cut? Wonder if I should try to buy some in January...


No and nor do i think it would even be much of an issue if they did. The risk has been taken out of the CAD, imo. People are at max fear after any drop when they should be worried about it @ tops, before hand.

It's no different than me shorting vix here. We just had the risk, it's -2% on the market, and we just side-stepped it. Sure there could be more to come, but the immediate risk has come and gone for the most part. Would you have rather started a long-stock postion last week or today?

It's no different than oil. People were buying resource hand over fist with oil @ $100, and only now are they scared of a drop, lol.

It's no different than anything. People are designed to be backwards


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

So let's take stock of the Notes over Volatility trade.

What have we seen, what did we do and what can we take away from it?

First off let's just state straight-away we were rarely @ the prescribed original ratio. Looking at the price of the pair from Nov 24th, a mere 6 weeks ago you can see that as a 'static pair' its down. We on the other hand took the opportunity of a lot of vol in the market to be heavier one side or the other as risk-reward firmed up.

We've also been reminded of the requirement to be intelligent with our funds. If you have no cash, you have no options. I'm a scale-in type of guy and always will be. My original size is always small. I just assume in am way off base in my entry. I usually am. 

I would say size-wise I was pretty reasonable through-out the 6 week period leading up to today were i am closing out this particular war against the market. On the vix side i was heaviest after rally's and other than that the bonds which are frankly much easier to hold as margin is very forgiving, was heaviest most recently.

What i am saying is i could have been much more aggressive but chose not to since i always respect what leveraged instruments even traded in this manner, can do to you.

OK down to the figures. After a 6 week trade we've realized about +3% return on the portfolio as a whole and you've seen it all as 'live' as i can do it. The break-down is approx +2.75% vix related and a minuscule 0.25% on Notes. Typically, as stated at the start, the Notes have provided a bit more than 50% of the return overall on longer runs.

Notes have been weak over the past 2 months and vix has given ample opportunity with US markets @ all time highs or close there to.

I'll be ramping up another thread giving another paired trade soon. I joked a few days ago of being very dogmatic. Guilty as charged. The truth is I believe there are literally hundreds of viable and intelligent trades than can be run. Just because i don't do them doesn't mean i think they're not good, just that i think what i do is better or at least better suited to my mentality. I've given others in the past. SPX put-write being on of them.

I am fortunate to know a few heavy-hitters on the US side and I can tell you for a fact that they were trading against my position, in general. We all made money. Food for thought about needing to 'be right' when you rub that crystal ball, lol. Here's a hint, you don't. It doesn't pay to be a doomer and running your mouth while sitting safely on the bench gives you less than zero credit to any trader with a clue. Making money is about solid trades and solid decisions. Or that it what you strive for at least.

Anyway, that's it for now.

EDIT: I'll trade those few vix shorts out here as we go but it's a small position that can't hurt much and I've already shoved them off to the side to sit and ferment for a while.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Oh sh*t, didn't even realize it, lol. ES down 50! >2.5% lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu5JdmsLWVk

rofl.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

If your thread had pictures of cute kittens it'd be perfect lol, so:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> If your thread had pictures of cute kittens it'd be perfect lol, so:


i tot i taw a putty-tat.... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-B5vCLAoqw


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

lmao oh this is the best.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LCsiWL6gn0

sorry, hijacking my own thread. Mi-2 is a bad influence but whacha gonna do?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Bought 200 ZCN ....


I don't even know what ZCN is other than it looks near identical to TSX index.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> lmao oh this is the best.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LCsiWL6gn0
> 
> sorry, hijacking my own thread. Mi-2 is a bad influence but whacha gonna do?


Try Mr. Freeman (a popular Russian animation series, a few episodes have been translated to English ):








The_Tosser said:


> I don't even know what ZCN is other than it looks near identical to TSX index.


BMO S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF (I can't just abandon the Couch Potato strategy without giving it a fair chance... )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> BMO S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF (I can't just abandon the Couch Potato strategy without giving it a fair chance... )


lol well, it's not really couch-tater is it? Couch-tater is down 18% from highs over two years and you're entering now. Quite the different return moving forward doncha think?

Couch-tater is for lazy people that think it's smart to just throw money at something and then,..well,.......nothing. 

Ya know, because it always moves higher in the long run,............like simply saying that is proof of anything at all, rofl.

I tell ya what, I'd sooner take a smart shot at truly great returns and maybe under-perform once in a while, maybe,... than be that slack in my thinking.

Couch-tater went out the window once derivatives were brought to the market. That started quite a while ago and we're not done yet. I gave you links in that other thread back in November. It's long been established as irrefutable proof for anyone willing to put in some time.

I have placed ZCN in the Mi-2 watch-list @ $17.25  I think you do well on it from here.


EDIT: Mr Freeman, lol!! Lots-O-swearing! Soft ears beware!


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> lol well, it's not really couch-tater is it? Couch-tater is down 18% from highs over two years and you're entering now. Quite the different return moving forward doncha think?


Well that's why I call it a fair chance - buying index ETFs on the dips (still have 3 - three! - emerging markets ETFs that I bought near the top, because couldn't decide which one is better... afraid to even look at them today lol)



> I have placed ZCN in the Mi-2 watch-list @ $17.25  I think you do well on it from here.


I rushed a bit and bought for $17.34, 'cause I planned to buy "under $17.50", but I guess 18 bucks is not much of a difference (especially since it'll DRIP a share per quarter :biggrin: )



> EDIT: Mr Freeman, lol!! Lots-O-swearing! Soft ears beware!


Oh now he worries about soft ears! 
________________

Wait it's coming down again - almost at my 2nd limit price for HVI...


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> (still have 3 - three! - emerging markets ETFs that I bought near the top, because couldn't decide which one is better... afraid to even look at them today lol)


Yeah but as you can tell, all you're doing by buying multiple things higher and higher is making the exact same purchase at higher and higher prices. You're gonna get the same outcome on all of them. You would have been much better to toss a dart, buy the ONE, then sit on cash and wait until the market drops, because it will.

Couch-tater has no defense. All you're doing is making money when the market goes up and when it stops, all you do is lose money everywhere. It is lazy and devoid entirely of thought, not fitting of human intelligence.

This is no different than me trying to tell you that you might want to protect that HVI long, which has now turned into full-blown HIV. 

It doesn't matter what your PnL on it is. When the odds have turned, you gotta bail out, half out, whatever. The odds had turned, you gotta go.... that's trading. You're already more than long enough the market. What would have been the downside to walking away with a small prize?

Like i have said before, you really want to miss those first couple of bad days on it when it comes. It's just too nasty.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Couch-tater has no defense. All you're doing is making money when the market goes up and when it stops, all you do is lose money everywhere. It is lazy and devoid entirely of thought, not fitting of human intelligence.


But-but-but in 10-20 years everybody wins!  Since we're in accumulation stage, it's easier to keep adding money averaging down than up... at least that's my excuse 



> This is no different than me trying to tell you that you might want to protect that HVI long, which has now turned into full-blown HIV.
> 
> It doesn't matter what your PnL on it is. When the odds have turned, you gotta bail out, half out, whatever. The odds had turned, you gotta go.... that's trading. You're already more than long enough the market. What would have been the downside to walking away with a small prize?


Because I don't think like a trader, and investors add more when the price drops, not sell when it goes up a bit... especially when buying is free and selling is not, trading costs and what not... Anyways, now I have *400 shares of HVI @ the average cost of $9.34* - and I promise to consider selling if/when it gets above $10 :biggrin:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Oh hey, none of the above was directed mainly at you at all. That was just my thoughts on the matter and of course some validated facts on deriv trading.



> Mi-2, I'm starting the buy process on XIV <$24 here for all non-futures accounts.


looky-looky look who's XIV is green...... 

Isn't this market a funny thing? lol

I'm going to hold all short-vix that i currently have.

Size-wise i could out-last Armageddon, so technically i am too small, but this does allow me to shut the monitors off for a month or two which i may indeed do. 

I spent the last hour polishing the rims on the car, to give you an idea of how chilled this position is


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

*A bird in the hand? *



The_Tosser said:


> Like i have said before, you really want to miss those first couple of bad days on it when it comes. It's just too nasty.


I just really don't want to be this guy I guess lol:



> Dang, missed out buying on the earlier selloff. I got greedy and hoped for it to go lower


But yeah, if I sold my previous HVI bet for a small profit last week - my today's purchase would also be slightly green already (thanks to the turnaround before the close) But I have a 3.6% loss instead - with a hope for a larger profit "some time in the future"


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> But yeah, if I sold my previous HVI bet for a small profit last week - my today's purchase would also be slightly green already (thanks to the turnaround before the close) But I have a 3.6% loss instead - with a hope for a larger profit "some time in the future"


Right, and this isn't so much trying to time the market as it is respecting what it is you're actually trading. I realize you're not looking at (charts, tools, dare i say some experience with vix?, etc) how i am, but the point here is to know when the odds are really not stacking up on your side anymore. I can't stress that enough with trading, especially vix.

It's catch-22 i realize. If you don't see it for whatever reason, you simply won't see it at all.

At least today gave you exactly what i was eluding to the previous week. That first move (or two, three) can be just nasty.
Remember, the US side is still pretty much @ all time highs even after today and I've mentioned several times I don't see it going anywhere too soon. Even if i am wrong and it does, you're already way long anyway so you're not going to miss a thing. I would be cautious with vix-short here. 

I might take the rest of the month off and let these things flail around a bit. Good Luck


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> I realize you're not looking at (charts, tools, dare i say some experience with vix?, etc) how i am, but the point here is to know when the odds are really not stacking up on your side anymore. I can't stress that enough with trading, especially vix.
> 
> It's catch-22 i realize. If you don't see it for whatever reason, you simply won't see it at all.


Yep I only check the price fluctuations during the day while at work. I look at the charts after work, and was checking auto-recommendations, but they seem to be a day or two behind. Still advising to STAY SHORT: https://www.canadabulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=HVI.TO or SELL: http://www.investing.com/etfs/horizons-s-p500-vix-sh-tr-fut.-inv-technical - while VIX futures are slightly red and XIV was in the after-hours gainers list 

It's ok, long-term chart gives me enough confidence that sooner or later it'll go up - and thanks to you I'm not trading VIX futures (although watching HVU going up 10 bucks in less than a week makes me wanna try lol)



> I might take the rest of the month off and let these things flail around a bit. Good Luck


Yeah I'll just buy that bond in two weeks - and if last year is any indication, will be still holding HVI lol

Thanks again - enjoy your retreat!


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> added to July @ $20.70. Net 20.30 short
> 
> Being this far out on the curve give us time to work it.
> 
> 2016, in your face



Cleanup:

Take 10 cents if you must. $20.20 

Only a couple more positions to tidy up that were mentioned in this thread.


EDIT:

P.S.

Mi-2, I had mentioned repeatedly about vix very often closing at the highs or the lows of the day. I took a look at it this past weekend in a more detailed manner. It turns out that 50% of the time over a number of years this is in fact the case. The number of times it closes @ the lows vs the highs are about 2:1, meaning your HVI will close right about on the highs on any given day, quite often. It did today.

If we can assume we have an idea once the day is well in progress which 'way' it'll go (and that is no gimme by any stretch), then waiting until the end of the day will often give you your best shot at a nice exit or whatever you may want to do on the way into the trade.


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> The number of times it closes @ the lows vs the highs are about 2:1, meaning your HVI will close right about on the highs on any given day, quite often. It did today.
> 
> If we can assume we have an idea once the day is well in progress which 'way' it'll go (and that is no gimme by any stretch), then waiting until the end of the day will often give you your best shot at a nice exit or whatever you may want to do on the way into the trade.


Cool, good to know! Wouldn't help me on a day like today when I had an ad-hoc meeting at 3:30pm (that's why I usually try to enter Buy and Sell limit orders in advance - in case I'm busy or not looking when the price gets there... ) But usually I have a lot of flexibility, so should be able to jump out right before the close


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

lol, in case it becomes relevant over-night. 

ES first limit-down print is 1908.00 rofl.

2016, in your face 

If we make the open, it's 1867.50


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)




----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

well i guess ES -35 / DOW -275 is a placed to start shorting vix again for the day, lol.


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> well i guess ES -35 / DOW -275 is a placed to start shorting vix again for the day, lol.


lmao Mi-2 I am SO gonna regret this, but i am taking 1/4 of that vix short off +7.5% here with ES -22 / DOW -197 rofl.


EDIT: btw i am so trying to go on a hiatus from the market here. It keeps dragging me back.


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Well at this point I'm still more concerned about a potential rate cut (the chances of which seem to just have increased):



> Derivatives and currency traders see a growing chance that the Bank of Canada will drop interest rates back to a record low this year as the economic outlook dims abroad and at home.
> 
> The Canadian dollar fell to a 12-year low Wednesday and traders started pricing in a 50 percent chance of a rate cut by May, up from the 31 percent probability seen on Dec. 31, amid signs of economic weakness in China and declines in the price of oil, among Canada’s largest exports.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ts-12-year-low-as-bets-mount-on-2016-rate-cut

Trying to decide whether/if/when to buy some USD (and dare I say a GIC - was gonna start a 5 year ladder this year, if I stumble upon a 3%+ promo... lol)


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> if I stumble upon a 3%+ promo... lol)


Yeah you missed it. It was @ the open today shorting vix.  

It didn't take a year to get either. I count it under 3 hours and of course it was mightily over 3% 

BTW it's now locked in, i won't take less than +5% on it today and will be out of it by the close. 

I have enough short-vix on that i will hold for a while to come yet, given what has happened over the past week.


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

well there ya go. stopped out before the close. Call it +5.5% all-in from the morning.

I changed my mind. Took off all vix-short for +$ except the Apr mentioned here specifically on this thread.

I am now a one-hit pony. Oil long. We've not yet hit $32.50-$33 of 08-09 lows but give it 15 more minutes. 

Time to trade this b*tch to green.


EDIT for clarity:

Still in Apr short @ $19.40 nothing added or removed here. I see that could have been taken either way from above comment.

Non-futures acct holding long XIV <$24 and ZIV $40.40 area-ish are also not touched and won't be looked at for months. They're about 1/3 position, 2/3 cash coming off of 100% cash @ end of 2015. They've been couch-tatered


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)




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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


>


your HVI closed @ highs again today. (along with XIV, ZIV etc)

Face it, you love vix trading. 

Non-futures (and all vix) accounts are nicely green this year.


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> your HVI closed @ highs again today. (along with XIV, ZIV etc)
> 
> Face it, you love vix trading.


Well I love watching you do it, but I need to learn to sell, not just buy before I can say that I love it - or trade it lol


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Ha:


Add together geopolitical concerns, falling stock prices, crumbling oil, and the idea the Fed may have gotten it wrong when it tightened monetary policy last month, and gold gets off to a big start to the year.

In fact, since the Fed hiked in mid-December, the three best-performing asset classes are the VIX (NYSEARCA:VXX), the gold miners (NYSEARCA:GDX), and gold (NYSEARCA:GLD). After that are utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) and long-dated Treasurys. Go figure.


Gold climbs to highest level in two months


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Ha:


Now you're going to go and make me look up that dumbass Peter Schiff to watch him pump his chest about being right gold. One week in 4 years doesn't seem like much to me but he'll sell it like a cheap whore to fools and doomers.

As to the Fed, well at best the rate hike was a fools errand, stupid posturing and mis-guided, but that's what you get when you can appoint mostly economic know-nothings to cast the only votes that count. 

I can't be too tough on them as they are stuck either way, anyway. 

Monetary policy is not the go-to instrument to battle deflation. This problem is not going to get better until the only help that is help can get their **** together and that is using fiscal policy. The elected members need to still get their heads out of their asses and, as they say, "spend like a motha-f*ka". Worrying about inflation and federal 'debt' is a complete joke. 

The federal gov needs to Deficit spend wisely and do it large. End of story. Interest rates are near useless as a tool from here, oh, and low gas prices aren't going to do **** either, rofl. Maybe they could give that one a rest, they've been wrong on that for a year and a half now. Just dumbasses.

The US, the big dog in the room, is a total cesspool. Infrastructure there is a total disaster. Education could use some help as well. There's two places that would fund the hell out of employment and provide huge social benefits in the long run. They are so far behind both it's embarrassing.

The US economic data, some of which i have been posting on this thread over the past month or so has been really bad and has been in a multi-month trend in that same direction. This is why I've been so damn short-term in my focus and i will not hold long the market, much at all. This is why i kept saying trade that stuff out (vix-short). We're all going to get caught holding a bag or two here and there, that's a given. What you don't want to do is to be left with the whole damn shopping carts worth in your hands 
I'm keeping an eye on the economic data and i'll be looking for some sort of fiscal stimulus coming from the Fed. It could take many forms of course. I have to see something like that or a huge market correction before i get truly comfortable again. 

From a trading stand-point the market is due for an up day in the next couple days i would guess. I am stuck half-way in my thinking. I want to stay short-vix somewhat here, but at the same time, it's not exactly where i want to see it. Thus the middle-of-the-road stance i have taken. It's Jan 6th. We've got a day or two left in the year


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Now you're going to go and make me look up that dumbass Peter Schiff to watch him pump his chest about being right gold. One week in 4 years doesn't seem like much to me but he'll sell it like a cheap whore to fools and doomers.


I'm sorry, I was just glad that at least something that we own was up today!  Balance and diversification and stuff, you know lol



> From a trading stand-point the market is due for an up day in the next couple days i would guess. I am stuck half-way in my thinking. I want to stay short-vix somewhat here, but at the same time, it's not exactly where i want to see it. Thus the middle-of-the-road stance i have taken. It's Jan 6th. We've got a day or two left in the year


Yeah it's Russian Orthodox Christmas tomorrow - and one more week till the Old New Year (yep, that's how it's called lol) - and I'm still waiting for that present from Father Frost! :smilet-digitalpoint VIX futures are slightly red, I have my sell order for HVI @ $10.10 (so I'll make 8%/$300) - and learning to lift the markets with my mental energy in the meantime :biggrin:


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

RESP rebalance time!

20%	TD CDN Index-e** 
30% TD US Index-e** 
20% TD European Index-e** 
10% TD Nasdaq Index-e** 
20% TD Int'l Index-e** 

yeash, I'm glad I put my kid in 80% US funds 2 years ago!

I'm at 20% CDN exposure which I think may actually be a little light. If the dollar goes down to 0.65 I'm going to bump up the Canadian component to 30% at least just to reduce currency risk/


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

^

why are posting that in this thread? lol

but uhm,.. congrats? I mean, I don't know what to say, lol.

Yes, US mkts won the day for the longest while. Good stuff.

EDIT: Come to think of it, you've been a reverse Peter Schiff, so well done indeed! rofl


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> why are posting that in this thread? lol


oh c'mon, none posting in this thread is like a nun walking into a strip club, don't discourage him!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> oh c'mon, none posting in this thread is like a nun walking into a strip club, don't discourage him!


well, OK. 

Hey that 80% US market was beautiful work though. He's smiling all over the place I'd bet. This was inverse P-Schiff too. On top of telling people to buy gold for the past forever, he told people to sell US market, buy commodity markets, rofl. Oops!

Oh and short USD for the past decade  DXY0 going to 40 he said,....maybe even 20, rofl I think he meant to say 120 because that's a lot closer to where it is


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Hey that 80% US market was beautiful work though. He's smiling all over the place I'd bet.


Well that's why I remembered this old joke lol: http://sandiegojewishworld.com/jewish_humor/punchlines_and_their_jokes/2006-06-01-Number 36.htm 

But it just makes me happy when people look at the facts and question their beliefs - and congrats regardless indeed


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Ha funny joke.

OK back to it, since this market isn't going to leave me alone.

Asia is open, and somewhere out there a red-headed step child is being beaten like a rented Mexican mule tonight.

ES down 13 / DOW -100 as we reach the lows of earlier today.

If i wake up tomorrow and we have another ES -35 / DOW - 300 i will be doing the exact same thing then, that i did today.

US economic data for tomorrow: Unemployment claims, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment all @ 8:30 EST

Wakey-wakey.


EDIT: (8:59PM)

lmao china just halted - again 

-20 / -150

EDIT: Oh shiite muslim, china trading suspended .......... down 7%


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> If i wake up tomorrow and we have another ES -35 / DOW - 300 i will be doing the exact same thing then, that i did today.


One is a genius... lol



> EDIT: Oh shiite muslim, china trading suspended .......... down 7%


Hey stop that I need to get my HVI **** up! lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Pinky and the Brain 

Hey it's a vix pile-on tonight.

Jan is running over Feb which has now run over March which has caught up with April.

There's a few spread-trades for ya!

Yes, I think i will! lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

uhuh, -53 SPX / -400 DOW, we'll try vix short again and see what happens.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> uhuh, -53 SPX / -400 DOW, we'll try vix short again and see what happens.


Mi-2, I'm going to deploy a bit more of that cash in non-fut accounts today. This means XIV <$22 currently.

This move should have scared the stuffings out of a few people 

Happy old new moon new year....whatever  We're 30 ES points off a US market halt, although that is still a long way. Makes ya wonder though.


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> If i wake up tomorrow and we have another ES -35 / DOW - 300 i will be doing the exact same thing then, that i did today.
> 
> US economic data for tomorrow: Unemployment claims, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment all @ 8:30 EST


Oh man i need new glasses. The last three are for tomorrow @ 8:30EST  Oops.

Unemployment claims are out - it rose a smidge. On avg it's been rising since Oct 15th numbers. Oh yeah, things are just fine, nothing to see here, just move along


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

So Mi-2, let's talk vix and Armageddon so we have our minds properly wrapped around things. 

vix as a short hasn't been this good in a long time. We can't deny that. Now let's see what Armageddon looks like. 

XIV @ $10. You can't deny that either. I think if you've got your mind wrapped around this you'll be in a better place to make decisions. Look @ 2011 when the SPX dropped 20%. XIV lost about 80% i think. So far it's down 50% from it's highs and from a 'worse' vix level over 2011. We have to factor that into it as well. $10 could easily happen, so do the math and decide what size position and size you want to take on at this point. Don't forget we've given up nothing in that XIV fall to this point.

Given the above, in the non-fute's accounts I have given it my best college try and am now 50% short vix across the term structure and 50% cash. If i am 'wrong' here then so be it. Those accounts have been 'logged-out' and i will not be returning to them unless we get to XIV $15 area. To the upside i'll let them run for 10%, at least. This is about as couch-tater as i get  Effectively vix short is just SPY long on steroids with accompanying health concerns, lol, so unless one is a career doomer or bench warmer i don't think too many could argue a whole lot about this middle of the road path to this point. SPY has given away 1.5yr gains at this point, commodity driven markets are far worse than that.

Good Luck Ma'am.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> uhuh, -53 SPX / -400 DOW, we'll try vix short again and see what happens.


taking first 1/4 vix short off +6.5%

ES -31 / DJ - 270


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

No more cash (and nothing to sell lol), so will just watch & learn - thank you for all your demonstrations and explanations!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> No more cash (and nothing to sell lol), so will just watch & learn - thank you for all your demonstrations and explanations!


I'm just trying to keep things grounded and 'real' when it comes to trading vix. It's no sleeper position here and this is what it takes to be a trader, not a bench warming tater. 

Just stopped out 2nd quarter +4.5% -33 / -250, this is no time for day dreaming of riches.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

re #200 above ...opposite here...: tons of cash (not intentionally - just the world's worst procrastinator) , no rush to sell holdings( BCE, FTS etc).... what to do... what to do....
what's this "vix" thing-y?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

jargey3000 said:


> what's this "vix" thing-y?



A-I-D-S  

we run around having random unprotected sex, usually in San Fran.

That's why i am trying to get a hiatus in from the market here


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Hey it's a vix pile-on tonight.
> 
> Jan is running over Feb which has now run over March which has caught up with April.
> 
> ...


OK Mi-2 there's another trade that also worked out. I did not specify, nor does it matter. This is a simple term structure trade using side-by-side months. It's not worth a lot of $$ but it's safer than being solo-short and on the wrong side of the trade. To get say 10% or more (albeit levered) you have to wait a fair amount of time.

I use it to pay for margin expenses, screwed up (wrong way) trades - which by the way i did today, lol. It's been a while but it does happen  Zigged when i meant to Zag, so took the loss and went the 'proper' way!


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> we run around having random unprotected sex, usually in San Fran.


Oh thaaat's why my husband is going to San Fran next week - and he told me it's a business trip! lol

(Go gold go! :biggrin


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> side-bet!
> 
> getting naked like a Bonobo......... selling ERX Jan 8, $22 puts @ $1.85


From Post # 64

Clean-up:

Covered for small gains, rolled to Short Jan 15, $20 Puts....

no harm, no foul.


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Oh thaaat's why my husband is going to San Fran next week - and he told me it's a business trip! lol
> 
> (Go gold go! :biggrin


We got first class seats, side by side. He's still in the closet i see. OK i won't tell anyone.

RE: Gold. I was looking at it today. A total market crap-storm and it can hardly get its *** above $1100, Go Peter 'Schitt'.


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Just stopped out 2nd quarter +4.5% -33 / -250, this is no time for day dreaming of riches.


Got stopped out of the rest +4%. I'll take the win. Gota be close to +5% on the whole today.

I kinda of wanted to hold this one but since i still have Apr short on and it's more forgiving, i'm OK with it.

ES -30 / DJ -235


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Got stopped out of the rest +4%. I'll take the win. Gota be close to +5% on the whole today.
> 
> I kinda of wanted to hold this one but since i still have Apr short on and it's more forgiving, i'm OK with it.
> 
> ES -30 / DJ -235


oh man i may never get to go on vacation..

1/2 size short vix again.

ES -40 / DJ -310

don't really like playing mid-stream so 1/2 only...

1946 / 16525


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> oh man i may never get to go on vacation..


Unless you go to Vegas... lol


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Unless you go to Vegas... lol


you mean this isn't Vegas? oh ****....... 


Full sized  ES -50 / DJ - 400 (again).

EDIT: (1:44PM) EST

Seriously though, this is the vix print i eluded to last night, where i want to start to hold it vs trading it every chance i get.

We'll see how it goes.

EDIT 2: 



> From a trading stand-point the market is due for an up day in the next couple days i would guess. I am stuck half-way in my thinking. I want to stay short-vix somewhat here, but at the same time, it's not exactly where i want to see it. Thus the middle-of-the-road stance i have taken. It's Jan 6th. We've got a day or two left in the year


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

"Alert: HVI.TO went down by 10%"
"Alert: HVI.TO traded above high volume 1,314,674"

And now it finally got to $8 where my husband said he'd consider buying... but need to convince him to sell half of his gold first lol


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> "Alert: HVI.TO went down by 10%"
> "Alert: HVI.TO traded above high volume 1,314,674"
> 
> And now it finally got to $8 where my husband said he'd consider buying... but need to convince him to sell half of his gold first lol



lol Questrade alert?

why i ask is i see that an email attached to an account i op over there just gave one for XIV. Fortunately we bought @ beginning of the day down 9% or area. This is all of that non-fut stuff that is Tater-mode for now.


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Yep, Questrade 

My husband doesn't think it's the end of it, so I'll paper-trade for him:

1) "Sold" 300 shares of IGT (gold bullion ETF in CAD) for $15.02 - 4.5K
2) "Bought" 500 shares of HVI for $8 - 4K
3) "Kept" 400 shares of IGT as a hedge


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

"Alert: SKX.VN went up by 10%"
"Alert: SKX.VN traded above high volume 166,520"

Now this is unexpected - Striker Exploration Corp., formerly known as Elkwater Resources Ltd., that I don't want to even waste commissions on selling, just waiting 'till it dies peacefully, goes up on a day like this (with oil down)? 










PS nm, it fell 10% in the morning... lol


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Moneytoo said:


> One is a genius... lol


Speaking of geniuses lol:



Jeenyus1 said:


> I'm tempted to go short with SQQQ or start a position overnight in HVU but China's open tomorrow along with U.S market open tomorrow is just too damn unpredictable... Going into the 7th day of decline is stretching it.


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> My husband doesn't think it's the end of it, so I'll paper-trade for him:


Just conserve that cash you've got. You have more than enough long the market already. 

So the market has set to me this 'dilemma'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7Nci-GVuHE

And I said "yes, i do". 

The numbers on the vix short are +4.77% realized today and -2.27% unrealized on the current position. (Two minutes ago it was green, lol, for what that is worth). So the question is posed.

Do I do my first over-night hold of vix short in a while now? (Other than that further out on the curve stuff IE Apr). My answer is yes, I'll hold it from here.

We have to eyeball china again tonight. We also have US econ news 8:30AM EST tomorrow.

There's our landscape. Vix spot is > $25.

I'm liking our odds. It's Jan 7th.


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

> I'm tempted to go short with SQQQ or


Hey you laugh but i have looked at the SP500 versions, SPXL, SPXS and if i had to i could make a proxy-xiv or vxx out of those things. I don't recall the specifics but i do recall that i did look at those and knew i could go there if i had to


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

*333*



The_Tosser said:


> Just conserve that cash you've got. You have more than enough long the market already.


No cash, but 50+ more K to add before May, so in a way I hope these low prices will stay 



> So the market has set to me this 'dilemma'.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7Nci-GVuHE
> 
> And I said "yes, i do".


Omg I loved that movie! (even before I got married lol)



> We have to eyeball china again tonight...
> 
> I'm liking our odds. It's Jan 7th.


Eyeballing lol:


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Hey you laugh but...


I laugh happily 'cause it seems that great minds do think alike (*Jeenyus1* was my favorite trader on RFD Investing forum ) Let's see if you'd agree with his latest rant:



Jeenyus1 said:


> The best thing for you to do as an individual investor is most likely the opposite. If there's ever a man that talks his own book it's George Soros...
> 
> This man uses his connections with very influential people to shape policy within government such as environmental policy (coal usage) while at the same time going short/long to benefit from successful policy-shaping. He influenced the destruction of coal (while most likely short) then he went long on coal stocks when they became battered and crippled.
> 
> ...


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

What is RFD?

As to George Soros, never met him and i know nothing about him other than what we've all heard over the decades, which is to say on this topic we'd all be talking out of our asses.

I really don't bother reading anything 'financial news' related because the quality-to-garbage ratio is just awful. It's much more likely to do more mental harm, than good  

Oh hey, 7PM EST tonight go get your financial media fill from CNBC  lol "Market in Crisis" in case you missed the -7% move in the past couple of days


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> What is RFD?


Red Flag Deals: http://forums.redflagdeals.com/investing-f134/  Mostly younger crowd (I know only one retiree there), with more traders than here (and lots of noobs asking silly questions, so I felt more at ease there when I started lol)



> Oh hey, 7PM EST tonight go get your financial media fill from CNBC  lol "Market in Crisis" in case you missed the -7% move in the past couple of days


Nah I only watch BNN Market Calls - and since I stopped buying individual stocks, mostly out of habit (or rather our cat's habit who's waiting for me to come home, have dinner, turn on TV and watch "the stocks" so he can sleep on my lap - and I swear he still perks up when he hears "Crescent Point" which used to be asked about in every episode, "Are the dividends safe?" - before they cut the dividends lol)

Besides, my husband already sent me his "I told you so" article: http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/07/investing/stocks-markets-dow-china/index.html (he was never sold on the "fully invested couch potato" thingy, and was just asking on Monday that maybe we should sell everything before it's too late and sit with cash "'till the bottom"... and as last April, I asked him how will he know when we hit the bottom? And spent the rest of my cash lol)

And then Garth made me feel better:

«Above all, recognize that fear is the dominant human emotion. Bigger than love. Anger. Hunger. Envy. Sex. Even fondling puppies. We fear loss more than we enjoy gain. We’re also victim to recency – we believe things that go up (Vancouver houses) will go up forever. Or that things going down (Chinese stocks) will go to zero.

We actually suck at investing. It’s why most people are financial failures. A few learn that early, and change. Others don’t, and become Sue. Your choice.»

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/07/perspective-4/

I don't want to be like Sue who sold everything at the bottom in 2008 - and don't think I can be you... at least not yet


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## Getafix (Dec 29, 2014)

I've been following this thread for a while, ever since VIX caught my interest. Finally decided to nibble a bit today, bought some HVI (half position). Will buy more if the sell-off continues. Also got my eye on XIV but want to wait it out a bit more. Planning on holding both till markets stabilize and start to recover.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> And then Garth made me feel better:
> 
> «Above all, recognize that fear is the dominant human emotion. Bigger than love. Anger. Hunger. Envy. Sex. Even fondling puppies.


OK so Garth fondles puppies. Got it. 


BTW ES running up hard - just tossed out that 2nd vix-spread trade, lol. Made more on it that the first one from the morning.

China just opened.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Getafix said:


> I've been following this thread for a while, ever since VIX caught my interest. Finally decided to nibble a bit today, bought some HVI (half position). Will buy more if the sell-off continues. Also got my eye on XIV but want to wait it out a bit more. Planning on holding both till markets stabilize and start to recover.



Welcome.

fyi, HVI is same as XIV so you're just doubling up on the same trade, more or less.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Above all, recognize that fear is the dominant human emotion.


Yes.

And this was the biggest 'fear' i heard all day today of holding over night tonight.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/chinese-securities-regulator-suspends-market-circuit-breakers.html

China said it was suspending its circuit breakers for their Friday session.

But here's the thing. How could I not hold short vix tonight? I got the vix print i wanted and in fact you saw me a little desperate to get back in that i went 1/2 way in, earlier than i wanted but i left no doubt i was full-sized back in on the close. You just have to let that fear go and stick to your game plan when it's playing out how you desired it to be. Let the chips fall where they may after that. 

I have no idea how tomorrow is going to play out. Maybe i (we) get screwed, but my thinking and two scenario's have us up at the end of Friday either way. Either an initial drop then rally, or we wake up, up and then rally all day.

You can't get what you want and then chicken-**** out once you get it. Let the fear go, but at the same time use your head with your position and cash size. That right there should give you great peace of mind. Accept your position and move on.

Best of luck to us all tomorrow.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

VIX futures are -4.47% - looks like a turn around to me (but with my now rather high average cost for HVI, I guess I'll sit with it till the spring as I was going to lol)


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> VIX futures are -4.47% - looks like a turn around to me (but with my now rather high average cost for HVI, I guess I'll sit with it till the spring as I was going to lol)


yep, ES was up 25 tonight / DJ + had to be 160 at least.

That's why i dumped that spread. 2.5X what i made on it earlier, in case i am wrong and we lose it all tomorrow at least I have that puny thing in the bag. It just covers the costs of running the other stuff.

The real money maker if it happens will be what you quoted. The volatile front month trade.

I didn't even mention it all day as it was a sleeper after about 11AM, but did you see oil get to 32.10? wow. It all seemed to line up.

AMEN Putty-tat!


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> I didn't even mention it all day as it was a sleeper after about 11AM, but did you see oil get to 32.10? wow. It all seemed to line up.


No, I only saw $33 and change - but I was at the meeting till 12:30pm, and kinda gave up on my oil & gas stocks for now, so not really watching oil... and speaking of a sleeper, don't forget to sleep yourself


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> ... and speaking of a sleeper, don't forget to sleep yourself


Yes you're right, i should probably head off. Up late to catch whatever and then up again 4AM, 5AM @ the latest to catch whatever else might be happening. But hey if nothing I'll retire again until 6AM or so 

Make the hay while it's shining. Plus this is fun, it's not work really. I would never actually 'work' this long. No way.


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## Getafix (Dec 29, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Welcome.
> 
> fyi, HVI is same as XIV so you're just doubling up on the same trade, more or less.


Yes i know, i have very little of my cash in CDN $, the majority is in USD which is why i'm also looking at XIV. Futures are down for now, let's hope the trend continues tomorrow morning!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> As to the Fed, well at best the rate hike was a fools errand, stupid posturing and mis-guided, but that's what you get when you can appoint mostly economic know-nothings to cast the only votes that count.


I'm going to make one more post and give a link, because it matters. Then off to bed.

I went on a mini Fed-rant the other day. I said the above, quoted.

Before i continue i have to ensure people that i am no Fed hater or doomer. I'm not an idiot peter schitt-head gold nut either.

The Fed plays an important roll and yes there are a couple very smart people there. My beef was however that there are complete <hold your ears!> fucking retards that actually VOTE decisions, that are also at the desk.

I'm going to link for you the kings of the retards at the Fed. Some currently.

Dumb-Shits like Lacker and Fisher(old w/ dif spelling) They are embarrassments. What have i repeatedly said about inflation? It's not gonna happen. It's the boogie man in the closet. We are mile from anywhere near anything that even remotely looks like it. Yet here is dumb-*** himself on the BRINK of the worst global recession we're all likely to see, and dip-**** is worried about, what again? INFLATION! At that point the market was already down 15% and a few months after that is was down near 50%

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1528457320080417?ref=patrick.net



> "Fisher is a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee this and in March cast one of two dissenting votes against a decision to cut interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point"





> "Inflation is a problem now. It is too high and personally I would be uncomfortable in just waiting for economic slack to bring it down," Lacker told reporters on the sidelines of a symposium here.


What!!!??

They're STILL crying about inflation. lol. So the next time you think all of these people know anything about the economy and how it works, think again! Most of these voting members don't know **** and it's provable. Then and right now! Look @ their last statements. Good grief charlie brown they're still worried about it! lol Where? How? Open the closet door and turn the lights on, he ain't there! lol.

Now like i also said, the Fed can't do it all and in fact can't do a lot of the real 'stuff' that needs doing. That's fiscal policy work, but these guys can't even get straight what they DO have at their disposal because they have idiots casting votes and posturing instead of using their heads.

I'd give equal time to fiscal mismanagement too but it's so bad i wouldn't know where to start  They're all too worried about the Federal debt and US bankruptcy, lol. These guys can't get off the ground floor. 

OK rant-off 

EDIT: added quote


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Make the hay while it's shining. Plus this is fun, it's not work really. I would never actually 'work' this long. No way.


Yeah I know - I miss the state of flow (used to get into it at work as well, but not anymore, usually just bored... sigh):










«Developers of computer software reference getting into a flow state as "wired in", or sometimes as The Zone,[51][52] hack mode,[53] or operating on software time[54] when developing in an undistracted state. *Stock market operators often use the term "in the pipe" to describe the psychological state of flow when trading during high volume days and market corrections.* Professional poker players use the term "playing the A-game" when referring to the state of highest concentration and strategical awareness, while pool players often call the state being in "dead stroke."»

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_(psychology)


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

So that over-night is +6.5% now 2 min before the employ data.

Roll the dice.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> So that over-night is +6.5% now 2 min before the employ data.
> 
> Roll the dice.


Gotta be honest with ya. If I give away this +11% I'm going to feel like a bit of a dope  lol.

The good news is the Fed is riding to your rescue. What with all of this decent employ data they're gonna definitely find it easier to move against,...............wait for it, you know what i am gonna say.............Inflation. yep.. 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/08/expectations-rise-for-fed-rate-hikes-after-strong-jobs-report.html


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Gotta be honest with ya. If I give away this +11% I'm going to feel like a bit of a dope  lol.


Yeah it's coming back down now - did you sell?  (I need for it to come up 10% before I even start breaking even, so just chilling till calmer times... )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Yeah it's coming back down now - did you sell?  (I need for it to come up 10% before I even start breaking even, so just chilling till calmer times... )


No Ma'am.

I was quite serious yesterday. The close was where i wanted to start to stay short-vix for an extended play. It won't matter how we close today with this particular trade, up or down 20%, it is being held regardless.

I figure if I am going to be what is effectively long the SP500 Index, I'd much rather start it with the markets already down 7% for the year 

Couch-taters should be rejoicing.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> I figure if I am going to be what is effectively long the SP500 Index, I'd much rather start it with the markets already down 7% for the year


*hboy43* Post #43 cracked me up this morning lol:



hboy43 said:


> Many here are trying to "see a bottom" so they can make sure in the short term they don't find themselves with a loss. I say if you need to see a bottom before investing, your time would be better spent down at the local strip club.





The_Tosser said:


> Couch-taters should be rejoicing.


That we are lol:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> I say if you need to see a bottom before investing, your time would be better spent down at the local strip club.


lol well I usually sample before i buy too


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> lol well I usually sample before i buy too


Was gonna find you a funny "bottom sampler" avatar (as you've been here long enough and still don't have one), but the links are funnier than pictures: "AMS Soggy Bottom Sampler System"! ROFL


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The market did not go as i had expected today. Given i was sitting an an Armageddon -proof size, i took the opportunity to size it up a bit @ the close.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Visited my favorite strip club, it's so meh, neither bottoms nor can-can:



> Given the generally neutral macro signals, I’m going to suggest there isn’t a lot of danger of a major crash, beyond a possible return to the summer lows. Nor is there much hope for a new up leg in the bull market past 2130 on the S&P500 at this time. Conditions are short termed oversold – thus, a bounce could be seen on the US markets pretty soon. To me, such a bounce suggests a selling opportunity. If the market remains as range bound as it has been over the past 14 months, I am inclined to trade these swings. Buy and hold investors will likely continue to be disappointed in their returns.


http://www.valuetrend.ca/special-edition-blog-macro-view/


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

As far as ES levels go, I had 1908 as support and we tagged 1910 so we'll call that close enough. My next level down is 1883 and then 1864. After that i don't have anything. To the upside 1927 and 1964.

I don't put much stock in TA but will play along to make ehm happy. At the same time the close yesterday did indicate on a few of the TA things i will at least look at, that a short-term bottom might be had around here somewhere. Thus my willingness to stay put. It was only the last 45 minutes to an hour that my vix went back underwater to stay for the day. Other than that it was pretty much in sleeper mode. I'l note once again that vix close @ extreme levels, which in this case was 'high' for the daily range. Your best shot was as usual, the end of day if you wanted to do anything at that end. Post # 241

I'm always amazed how fast markets can drop. For this move the SPX is already down a good 7%, ditto for DJ, TSX-near, and the NDX is off 10% thanks to AAPL, AMZN, FB, INTC etc.

EDIT: NYSE already off 15% from highs, TSX is 19% SPX, DJ 10%. I'd say in part we've already got some heat laid onto us. Even if SPX ends -20% for 2016 i doubt it all happens at once with no chance to wiggle out of trades 

Smile!


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Yay my husband agreed to give HVI a try - so I'm praying for a black Monday/Tuesday...


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dkdqd_Q234

Listen to T-Snooze here. Esp 2-4min area. Listen to how a trader thinks. This guys says it perfectly.

Don't forget to listen to the whole thing. It's all rock-solid thinking.

611 views (pathetic) tells you something, rofl. He couldn't pay people to listen to good sense. 

His SP vs Bonds is interesting and i agree with him at this exact present time. (12min)


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

1) Commodities
2) Short bonds
3) Short Nasdaq

The cheaper it gets - the less risky it becomes. Got it! :biggrin:

Will watch the Related ones, this one sounds interesting: Passive Investing Kills Our Will to Learn | Truth or Skepticism


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Will watch the Related ones, this one sounds interesting: Passive Investing Kills Our Will to Learn | Truth or Skepticism


He talks about bonds vs SP500. You'll see this is more or less the same concept as the basis on this thread, bonds vs vix. We had overlapping trades and one could state we were in part on the opposite side of the trade. We both made money so who cares who did what. It''s the exact same thinking. The point being there's countless ways to make money a lot easier than passively sit-and-vegetate.  

lol T-Snooze says (16:50)


> "How could anyone be long?..(blah blah)....I don't know how you can be long?!" lol. "What are you hoping for, everybody is in...)


 rofl. (Nov 6th)

lol Exactly. Why people were buying anything when they were already all-in equities everywhere. What on earth? I don't get it. This is exact type of thinking that is dumb all day and is the core of passive-tater-investing that is taught and believed by most.

It's not my fault people haven't learned anything in the last 20-30 years.

20:20


> "Passive investing has killed our will to learn"


It must be the reason, because i can't find any other.  When you can still hear when your head is in the sand, find a deeper sandbox. That's retail thinking for you.

EDIT: (26:10)


> "They don't want you be an active trader so they publish all of the dumb studies from 1984 before there were options and futures...."


Well I said the same thing in this thread somewhere. I don't agree with everything he say but this is spot on. That 'argument' against trading is 30 years old and doesn't apply today at all. But hey, find a deeper sandbox people!  lol.


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

Maybe some people had well-paid careers that kept them engaged during the day and didn't include the time to be trading?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> The cheaper it gets - the less risky it becomes. Got it! :biggrin:


Exactly, and because of fear people think (or at least act) like the opposite is true.

Why am i short vix and holding as of Thursday when ES was at 1933.00 area? How could being 'long', and much lower than End 2105 (2030) , have more risk? It can't be. If one wants to tell me i am wrong then you have to say that about everyone long for any reason, except they're already long underwater and i chose to wait for better times.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Maybe some people had well-paid careers that kept them engaged during the day and didn't include the time to be trading?


So what does that have to do with it?

Your career is meaningless with respect to the waste that is couch-tater. They aren't related.

This is still pure excuse driven talk. You could easily do better that the foolish actions of most and do it part time. 

Nothing but excuses. The entirety of the non-futures accounts I run are done so in this 'part time' manner.

A little to the left. I think the sand is deeper over there


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

What it has to do with - what I was pointing out - was that many people, even if they wanted to be active in the markets during the day, do not have that opportunity because of the nature of their work. 
Those people have to take a hands-off approach to investing. To a DIY individual, an etf couch potato portfolio might make sense. I suppose others might prefer to hand their money over to someone to actively invest or day trade for them.
This is not an excuse, it is simply the reality of their day. 
If your profession and work responsibilities allow you the discretionary time to trade in the market through the day that is great! :encouragement:


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Man I just love this guy: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=974Igxkvf34  "as he recalls in his talk, true financial literacy isn't possible without taking a few risks."


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> What it has to do with - what I was pointing out - was that many people, even if they wanted to be active in the markets during the day, do not have that opportunity because of the nature of their work.


Exactly, and those non-futures accounts operate exactly for people like this. Do you really think i don't know people that work? lol

You have in this thread if you want to look hard enough, the position of those accounts. They are 50% cash and you can see what the rest consists of. They won't be looked at until X reaches y on the downside (an email will be dispatched which i assume everyone here has access to? lol). To the upside wo knows, we're not concerned at this point.

If this isn't as easy as a couch-tater i don't know what is.

Excuses can exit to the door on the left.

It's kinda funny though as it seems to me we're admitting that couch-tater is absolutely inferior, or why would there be any excuse made for it? This is starting to sounds like a religious spat  lol

Have a good one, I'm out.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I like Buffet's take on this

How do you make money investing?

Buy bargain priced stocks

How do you find them?

I use Value Line

But there are thousands of stocks!

Start with the A's

What if you can't do all that work or don't want to learn?

Buy index funds.

That to me may be the best advice of all. Buy low cost index funds or ETFs and go play golf.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Man I just love this guy: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=974Igxkvf34  "as he recalls in his talk, true financial literacy isn't possible without taking a few risks."



Ah TED talks, great thanks for the link. I'm outta here for now but i will get at this ASAP. I don't know yet if I've seen this one. The brain is getting old!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I like Buffet's take on this
> 
> How do you make money investing?
> 
> ...


Straight from 1950  But of course you don't have the limitation on one hand, nor the reach on the other, that buffett does. This is couch tater nothing more or less.

In other words, the above doesn't mean **** to you and I if you truly want to out-perform 'the couch'.

I find the sand deeper the further you move to the left  lol

Mi-2 recall that paper i sent you 2 moths ago. SPX put-sell . pretty passive, clean house, enough said.

Yes all of this is post options/futures invention. Is that our fault some have moved on?

lol


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

The_Tosser said:


> ...It's kinda funny though as it seems to me we're admitting that couch-tater is absolutely inferior, or why would there be any excuse made for it?


I wasn't making excuses for the approach or calling it inferior. Up-thread, you seemed to be disparaging it and expressing dismay that anyone would use such a poor-performing and mindless approach.
I was pointing out that there are good reasons people use the couch potato etf portfolio approach (i.e. the nature of their work day) even if you believe that superior investing methods exist.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Mi-2 recall that paper i sent you 2 moths ago. SPX put-sell . pretty passive, clean house, enough said.


Of course - keeping it in a safe place to try later/pass along in the meantime:



The_Tosser said:


> More importantly it gives you something to think about.
> 
> http://www.cboe.com/micro/buywrite/BlackRock-VIXYourPortfolio.pdf
> 
> The article is way more than just this trade. It discusses 3 similar trades and the one I was mentioning directly was the SPX put-write process that has been done for decades by many. Don't bother with the other two for now. Two are retail-ready trades the third one is OTC swaps and not a viable retail trade.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> I was pointing out that there are good reasons people use the couch potato etf portfolio approach (i.e. the nature of their work day) even if you believe that superior investing methods exist.


No argument that some people don't have the time, interest or mental capacity for more complicated techniques. I personally find options intimidating, yet the idea of trading volatility (that always goes up and down, and is a range bound - VIX will never be 0 or a 100) seems much easier to comprehend than scanning gazillions of stocks, studying their financials and competitors, trying to pick the best of the class. 

My cubicle neighbour was just telling me yesterday that she should've listened to her father - who told her to buy USD with all her money that she saved for the downpayment when our dollar was at par. But, of course, she didn't listen (and if she came to this or other forum for advice - most likely would have been told to buy GICs or leave the money in HISA)

We all want to believe in the fairy tale: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/worlds-worst-market-timer. But how many of us can do the math to check that it's actually true? And not look back with regrets either way:



jargey3000 said:


> for what it's worth I'D wait. Wait til the stock market crash becomes front page news ...hits the cover of TIME mag. etc etc... then wait another 6 months ... a year.... whatever...then put every cent you got into the market! Unfortunately, you only get 2 or 3 chances to do that in a life time... and I've lived thru at least 2 without taking advantage ...This next one will be my last shot...And FOR GOD'S SAKE...if the Cdn. $ every gets up to about $1.04-.05US ever again ... BUY, BUY, BUY!!!
> 
> Like my ol' father-in-law used to say: "*Too bad you gotta live thru a life-time to understand these things*"


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKHTawgyKWQ

rofl

another great TEDx.

btw Mi-2 i had definitely not seen that Tom Snooze link. Good stuff.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

> No argument that some people don't have the time, interest or mental capacity for more complicated techniques. I personally find options intimidating, yet the idea of trading volatility (that always goes up and down, and is a range bound - VIX will never be 0 or a 100) seems much easier to comprehend than scanning gazillions of stocks, studying their financials and competitors, trying to pick the best of the class.


And look at how easily you came to the 'volatility solution'. It was effortless. All you needed was someone to point it out and the rest was obvious to you. You articulated the core of the idea perfectly. 

It doesn't take much more than that and i can assure everyone that they waste more than enough time on a daily basis that they could easily do the little it takes to take it to the next level if they chose to do so. Being lazy is not an excuse and never will be. Anyone that can turn on a computer and log into CMF, can figure this out. It takes zero effort. This is hardly rocket surgery  

I find it humorous that investing seems to be the only thing in human endeavors that doesn't build upon itself. No doctor ever has to re-invent penicillin. No scientist has to reinvent the light bulb. Yet when it comes to investing, every retail investor out there is steadfast in their determination to rub two sticks together to get fire, despite the gasoline soaked rag and lighter sitting in full view. lol.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

I think I understand everything posted on this thread, except everything posted after this comment: "_I thought it would be a good idea to cease further posting in the "What are you buying?" original thread. It just clutters up that thread needlessly as well as it doesn't seem like what i am doing is a proper fit. _.....
Now, I have no plan to jump on tosser's train...it's w-a-a-a-y over my head! but i am trying to learn a little about volatility-trading (even started a thread about it a while back...) Just a dumb question: You cannot actually BUY _VIX_? correct? or not? The closest thing would be to buy _VXX_?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

jargey3000 said:


> I think I understand everything posted on this thread, except everything posted after this comment: "_I thought it would be a good idea to cease further posting in the "What are you buying?" original thread. It just clutters up that thread needlessly as well as it doesn't seem like what i am doing is a proper fit. _.....


lmao! I Loved that one. Best post of the day.   

As you'll hear everywhere, you can't 'buy or sell' the vix index, but you can buy or sell vix futures. (Yes as per your example VXX is the etf equivalent of M1-M2 blended futures, rolled forward on a daily basis.)

In fact the above is no longer true, well almost. There are now some tradeable paired-shares that mimic (less fees and serious slippage) the vix index itself. Symbols VXUP and VXDN.

I'd walk you through the circus hoops of these instruments if you'd like, or you can just take my word for it that you don't really want to soil yourself with them in the first place.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

jargey3000 said:


> I think I understand everything posted on this thread, except everything posted after this comment: "_I thought it would be a good idea to cease further posting in the "What are you buying?" original thread. It just clutters up that thread needlessly as well as it doesn't seem like what i am doing is a proper fit. _.....
> Now, I have no plan to jump on tosser's train...it's w-a-a-a-y over my head! but i am trying to learn a little about volatility-trading (even started a thread about it a while back...) Just a dumb question: You cannot actually BUY _VIX_? correct? or not? The closest thing would be to buy _VXX_?


You can buy and sell VIX options. They are cash settled options. 

There is no such thing as a "VIX" in the sense that you can buy and sell potatoes or gold. It is a calculated number but you can buy and sell options that are settled for cash if they are "in the money".

You can SELL an option any day in the week and the cash goes into your account that day.BUT you have a liability if the option goes in the money so you have to back yourself up, either with cash or with cash plus another option. For example if you SOLD a $20 strike price call option and BOUGHT a $25 strike price call option the most you could lose is $5 bucks. Options are figured on 100 share lots so you would have to put up $500 cash as earnest money or margin. If you do not have another option for backup, they could require thousands of dollars and if VIX shot up, that could increase to tens of thousands.

Lets say you sold this spread for $1.50. That means $150 cash in your account. Now we wait. As the underlying goes up and down the value of the spread goes up and down. If it goes down to 50c you might just decide to buy it back and take your profit. But if you wait to the end, meaning expiry day, one of 2 things will happen. The VIX will be over $20 or it won't. If it is $20 or under you win. You keep the $150. If it is over $20 you have to pay off. How much depends how high it goes but the most you have to shell out is $500 and that is only if it is $25 or higher.

In that case you are out $500 but you took in $150 so really you are out $350.

There is one other possibility. VIX is between $20 and $21.50. Then you would break even or make a little money on the deal.

So if you get that, you have the basics of how options work.

If it is something you are interested in watch a show called Tastytrade that is broadcast over the net. Just do a search for Tastytrade, you can even watch their old episodes if you like.

The other thing you should do is download Think Or Swim and open a paper trading account. This costs nothing and allows you to trade just as you would a real account. Paper trade for 2 or 3 months minimum and make all your mistakes when it doesn't cost anything. I would suggest more like six months.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

The_Tosser said:


> Straight from 1950  But of course you don't have the limitation on one hand, nor the reach on the other, that buffett does. This is couch tater nothing more or less.
> 
> In other words, the above doesn't mean **** to you and I if you truly want to out-perform 'the couch'.
> 
> ...


I'm with you, unfortunately. All I need to get by is a mere $5000 a month and if good dividend stocks pay 4% then I only need $1,500,000 in my account. Too bad I haven't got that much. So let's see if we can't hop up the returns without risking more than we can afford to lose.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

tosser & rusty - thanks for the information, guidance & advice!


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Jargey if you haven't got a headache yet here is another lesson in options. We are going to use the VIX as an example because it has such a reliable chart. Here is the chart.









This is a weekly chart that shows the VIX prices for the last 3 years.Notice how it likes to hang around down around the 12 - 15 price range then every once in a while, pops up above 20 then soon falls back down again.

Supposed you watched the chart and every time it went above 20, waited till it peaked and started down again, and SOLD some out of the money options. Giving yourself a month or more to buy them back cheaper. Can you see where the VIX fell back, within weeks, practically every time?

Now let's look at more detail. Here is the daily chart.


VIX closed at 27.01 on Friday. You could sell the 27 30 call spread in Feb with 37 days to expiration for 50c. That means risking $300 against $50 that the VIX will be below 27, 37 days from now. And you don't have to wait the whole 37 days, if it goes down you can buy back the spread cheaper.

I mean to do something like this next week, once I see it is through going up.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

One final lesson. If one of these option spreads goes against you, you don't have to sit there and take it like a little soldier. When you get a day or 2 from expiration and you see it isn't going to go your way you can roll the spread out. That means, buy back the one you sold, and sell another one farther out in time, for more money. Collect another premium and give yourself more time to be right.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

....uh....yeah..... right.....I think....


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> ....uh....yeah..... right.....I think....


Jargey, if I complete a few successful HVI trades - I'll "translate" it for you in a very simple language (you know how to buy/sell ETFs, right? )

HVI Explained: http://www.horizonsetfs.com/horizons/media/pdfs/Educational/The-Mechanics-of-HVI-HVI-Explained.pdf

In simpler words:



> HVI is designed to provide daily investment results, before fees, expenses, distributions, brokerage commissions and other transaction costs, that endeavour to correspond to the single inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index (the "S&P VIX S-T Index").
> 
> Any U.S. dollar gains or losses as a result of HVI's investment will be hedged back to the Canadian dollar to the best of its ability. HVI does not seek to achieve its stated investment objective over a period of time greater than one day.


http://www.newswire.ca/news-release...s-first-inverse-volatility-etf-509978381.html

In even simpler words: look at its chart, buy it as low as you can, sell as high as you can wait lol


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

NOW we're talkin' !!!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> HVI Explained: http://www.horizonsetfs.com/horizons/media/pdfs/Educational/The-Mechanics-of-HVI-HVI-Explained.pdf





> Additionally, it has proven to be very difficult to monitor the day-over-day change of the underlying futures contracts of SPVXSP or
> SPVXSP itself and expect HVI to accurately replicate the inverse of this change because both the SPVXSP and the futures are based
> off the futures close at 4:15pm as their starting point for the change, whereas HVI uses 4:00pm. The underlying futures contracts,
> and therefore SPVXSP, can move significantly between 4pm and 4:15pm. Recently, we have seen moves of close to 10% in that
> short 15 minute time frame.


The above quote is interesting. It also highlights what i have observed and mentioned here several time. If you want to make a trade you're likely to get the best pricing right @ the 4-4:15EST time frame.

From Friday close to the earliest open that you could have traded out this morning in an ETF.... 

Post #241


The_Tosser said:


> The market did not go as i had expected today. Given i was sitting an an Armageddon -proof size, i took the opportunity to size it up a bit @ the close.


Made +5%, but only if you took it in the last minutes of Friday's move. Other than that you'd be about flat at worst to the present point in time. The market has been up to flat though truthfully since about 4AM EST too. The point being choose this time frame to trade. It makes your life a lot easier. I'll be doing it again today one way or the other. Remember half the time it makes highs or lows of the day and S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-S into 4:15


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> If you want to make a trade you're likely to get the best pricing right @ the 4-4:15EST time frame.
> ...
> Remember half the time it makes highs or lows of the day and S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-S into 4:15


1) it trades till 4: "Units of the Horizons BetaPro S&P 500® VIX Short-Term FuturesTM Inverse ETF (or HVI) trade on the stock exchange until 4pm EST."
2) there's no pre- or post-market trading in my account even if it weren't 

Remember, you're dealing with handicapped people here... lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> 1) it trades till 4: "Units of the Horizons BetaPro S&P 500® VIX Short-Term FuturesTM Inverse ETF (or HVI) trade on the stock exchange until 4pm EST."
> 2) there's no pre- or post-market trading in my account even if it weren't
> 
> Remember, you're dealing with handicapped people here... lol


yep.... you can't really 'go there' with HVI but i was not going to rub the handicap wound in too deep 

But this goes back to the same thing as people crying (not yourself) that they don't have the time.... no-one has a gun to your head forcing you to not play the better instrument and i doubt anyone is doing much work 7PM Sunday night or Friday 4:10PM and not have time to place an order Monday @ 5AM, 6 AM whatever works...

I'm just passing out the golden info  Reach out and take it  lol

EDIT: btw with Ques-turd you can place a GTEM order that will fill on US securities that are open for trading. I know because i have to deal with them on a couple of accounts  I hate-ehm to be honest with you.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> ...and not have time to place an order Monday @ 5AM, 6 AM whatever works..


It actually keeps falling after the open - opened $7.79, I bought 300 shares @ $7.55 closer to 11am, it's $7.35-$7.40-ish now - my next order is 200 shares @ $7.30... 

(Glad I didn't wake up for it @ 5AM... lol But yeah, the futures seemed "undecided" before I went to bed at 1:30am, like bulls and bears have finally reached the balance )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> It actually keeps falling after the open - opened $7.79, I bought 300 shares @ $7.55 closer to 11am, it's $7.35-$7.40-ish now - my next order is 200 shares @ $7.30...
> 
> (Glad I didn't wake up for it @ 5AM... lol But yeah, the futures seemed "undecided" before I went to bed at 1:30am, like bulls and bears have finally reached the balance )


5AM was the sell  (Technically i sold @ 6:47AM and 9:32 AM)

I am 'buying' right here


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> 5AM was the sell  (Technically i sold @ 6:47AM and 9:32 AM)


Well I'm sure that once volatility calms down - I'll be able to sell in the afternoon as well :biggrin:



> I am 'buying' right here


damn it's back to $7.50-ish... I missed the bottom - for now..


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> I bought 300 shares @ $7.55 closer to 11am, it's $7.35-$7.40-ish now - my next order is 200 shares @ $7.30...


Wait what? I thought you were out of ammo for now? Remember you're already way-long the market already! I keep saying that but it's true. There's nothing wrong with a little (lot) of cash on the sidelines here!

Anyhoo, by "buying" i mean specifically that i have made the move, starting Friday, to calendar spreads. I was going to start the 'new' thread on the weekend to give the particulars but got too lazy so there's not much sense now. This is my go-to position in futures account when vix is in play like it is now. It's a lot of fun but certainly can be 'nasty'.

Be nimble  Take those nickles and dimes while your core position gets worked out. (or worked over??) Ouch look at this commodity beat-down. I don't believe it! FCX !! Bankrupt yet? Damn.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Well I'm sure that once volatility calms down - I'll be able to sell in the afternoon as well :biggrin:


I'm hoping, but right now, I"m not so sure :cower: lol "cower'


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Wait what? I thought you were out of ammo for now?


It's for my husband lol:

2016-01-07, 02:51 PM #214



Moneytoo said:


> My husband doesn't think it's the end of it, so I'll paper-trade for him:
> 
> 1) "Sold" 300 shares of IGT (gold bullion ETF in CAD) for $15.02 - 4.5K
> 2) "Bought" 500 shares of HVI for $8 - 4K
> 3) "Kept" 400 shares of IGT as a hedge


2016-01-09, 01:51 PM #244



Moneytoo said:


> Yay my husband agreed to give HVI a try - so I'm praying for a black Monday/Tuesday...


So the real 2016-01-11 trade:

1) Sold 300 shares of IGT for $14.97
2a) Bought 300 shares go HVI for $7.55
2b) Bought 200 more shares of HVI for $7.39

And now he's a proud owner of 500 shares of HVI @ $7.486 - let the bear market begin… lol


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> I'm hoping, but right now, I"m not so sure :cower: lol "cower'


Well I didn't mean this afternoon - but some afternoon in the future :biggrin:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Well I didn't mean this afternoon - but some afternoon in the future :biggrin:


lol agreed! Definitely.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Well I didn't mean this afternoon - but some afternoon in the future :biggrin:


hey i noticed your recent post RE CTC. Exactly, and let's hope we never forget it. 

It's identical (which i suspect you see now) to that XEF purchase a month ago. It's a real simple concept. Don't buy **** at market highs just because you have the money to do it, especially after several years of a straight up market. I don't mean just watching the TSX either. I mean rounded markets to watch like SP500. I placed the odds that you would get it much lower had you waited, at about 100%. It why i mentioned it. 

Of course for at least this week, we're both wrong on ZCN but at least you gave it a very honest shot. I still love your odds and to hell with what the market is saying today


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

It's OK, just got this "ouch, potato!" in the mail: http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2016/01/11/couch-potato-portfolio-returns-for-2015 (wished for a second that we should've stayed with TD e-series, but it passed :biggrin

My next 5K deposit should clear early next week, will keep training my nerves in the meantime :biggrin:

But keep posting your trades, I love learning from the pros! =)


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> It's OK, just got this "ouch, potato!" in the mail: http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2016/01/11/couch-potato-portfolio-returns-for-2015 (wished for a second that we should've stayed with TD e-series, but it passed :biggrin


*OUCH-potato*! OK sorry Jargey3000, this one takes it for today. That's it i am done. I will never call it couch potato again  

So with the market turning up here at the moment, if it keeps running the question is do we have the nads to hold it to 4:10 for the trading portion.........

I may have to hit the 4-20 party in order to full-fill the 4:10 timeline, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. :hypnotysed:


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

I'm betting that today was the bottom and Alcoa gives a good start to the earnings season tonight: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/alcoa-gets-1-5-billion-supply-contract-ges-065505922--sector.html  

If not, long-term optimism always wins... :biggrin:


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Moneytoo said:


> Well I didn't mean this afternoon - but some afternoon in the future :biggrin:


On second thought... sold to the highest bidder a minute before the close :biggrin:

View attachment 7802


So finally completed my first successful HVI trade! The most excitement less than 200 hundred bucks can buy... lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> On second thought... sold to the highest bidder a minute before the close :biggrin:
> 
> View attachment 7802
> 
> ...


lol congrats 

I held all mine other than this mornings sell. Gonna be the degenerate gambler that I know i am.

I am up on thurs vix (being held), sold the friday's (and Sun PM's) for profit earlier today and am holding today-noon's latest short-vix, which is way up now. (Equiv XIV +5%)

I have a target for the latest-noon calendar spread but we've not hit it yet.


EDIT: You freaking nailed that HVI sell. very nice.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> I held all mine other than this mornings sell. Gonna be the degenerate gambler that I know i am.


Well I've only sold my husband's (as my "sales pitch" implied that trading 4K of HVI can make in a day the equivalent of what 5K invested in a 5 year People's Trust 2.45% GIC would pay in a year lol), but keeping mine - and he told me I can play again with his cash, so let's see what tomorrow will bring  



> EDIT: You freaking nailed that HVI sell. very nice.


Thank you - you taught me well  I was sitting with $7.89 (so I'd make 5%) limit for 10 minutes before the close, but when there was only one minute left - lowered it... and someone else sold 300 shares 12 seconds before the close at that price:

15:59:48	T	7.89	0.23	200	1 Anonymous	39 Merrill Lynch	
15:59:48	T	7.89	0.23	100	1 Anonymous	39 Merrill Lynch

(c) http://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?symbol=HVI&region=C

But oh well, I'll take my second-best price that led to $184.55/4.93% after fees profit proudly :biggrin:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> ... am holding today-noon's latest short-vix, which is way up now. (Equiv XIV +5%)


OK squeezed an extra couple of percent out of that noon yesterday play. I'm out of it here. I'll give the details after a few cups of java are down range just as an idea maker.

ES+12 / DJ +100


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Gotta be honest with ya. If I give away this +11% I'm going to feel like a bit of a dope  lol.


Remember that post on Friday.

Then this one @ the close Friday.



> The market did not go as i had expected today. Given i was sitting an an Armageddon -proof size, i took the opportunity to size it up a bit @ the close.


I'll get into the details of the Friday 4PM short-vol positions later today but i took a couple of different trades. 

When the above trade went negative (11% to -5 or -6%) I added to it as per above Friday close.

I just took THAT one off here +15% as the original, still held position sits @ +9%.

ES +21 / DJ (which i am going to from now on state the actual contract most know as "YM") +176

ES and YM have now been defined in this thread for the non-futures players so ya know what we're saying.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Gold is down, so good that I sold some yesterday (as in - didn't wait till today ) HVI is up, so could've held overnight (although VIX Futures were dancing between +2% and +3.5% before I went to bed, so was surprised that they were in the red when I woke up)

My yesterday's "mistake" was running out of cash before the bottom (well, not keeping enough cash in general ) So today I'll try to watch till noon - and if HVI goes down, like yesterday, then maybe start buying in smaller batches. 

Was thinking to "buy by the hour" (100 shares at 10, 11, 12 - until 3pm, 600 in total) to average down either way, but I'm home today, so can actually watch it like a hawk


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> I'll get into the details of the Friday 4PM short-vol positions later today but i took a couple of different trades.


OK Mi-2 here's the Friday close vix calendar spread info that i was going to start a new thread about on the weekend as my current go-to trade given vix where it is, but yeah i got lazy and went out to party instead 

Here's the particulars of the trade fwiw. Again just a thought exercise for you at this point but maybe it sparks something.

So the trade i took Friday close and again Sunday night as the ES was down 10 or so. 

The smallest pair is long 1 March vix, short 4 May vix. One could argue that this is almost the same as short 3 May, and i would not disagree a whole lot. The slight difference is being long the front month vs short that extra back month will have a degree of flexibility that you can use to your advantage. I'll leave that open to interpretation.

The 'stats' are margin is about $16K for the pair. If one has a spare weekend when they're not complaining about not having the advantage of not being an ouch-potato,  (had to get that in there), then they can look back on almost a decade of vix spreads across the curve and come to the realization that the likelihood of not knowing approximately what Armageddon looks like with this trade is pretty small. You could expect Armageddon draw-down from Friday/Yesterday noon, of about $40K per pair. Yes that is $40,000 per.

There's your Armageddon, so size accordingly. I'll leave it to the reader to accumulate the data necessary to get an approximate distribution of this range and size up some probabilities. 

I switched to vix calendar spreads from notes-over-volatility because the probabilities are now better for the vix-vix trade, and potential dollar gains are also greater than notes-vix and will generally come more quickly.

I have made several of these trades since Friday close up until this morning where i exited the final positions. 

Grab a chart of the pair and note the notional value which is how pairs are generally quoted and certainly traded. The latest trade was long -$66.15K or close and the exit was -$64.05K. with of course a 1000 Multiplier. In plain speak the trade was a bit less than +$2100 per pair. The range i have made lately has been $500 to this upper trade this morning.

The trade is currently @ -$63.75 and I expect this trade to easily reach the -$61K to -$59K area in due course. This would be then upwards of $7K per set.

So why did i dump?

OK this goes to the 'other' trade that i'll mention here and I've not really kept overly quite. I won't be calling anything in this area however because it's far too nasty and people could get their asses handed to them very easily if they don't have their heads screwed on straight. (I am budgeting for uvxy to get to $150+ on Armageddon-like terms) You likely figured out it was uvxy as i had mentioned once or twice that i have been trading it short in passing only. Frankly it's the highest probability trade over a couple of months time span that i know if, traded even half decently. So what i did today was reduce margin on vix spread and kept the higher probability trade on. This morning where i took that +15% was from Friday close UVXY short @ $44. covered @ $37. I took 1/4 position off and will take a further 1/4 of IF it reaches the lows of the day by 4Pm EST, which it looks right now like it will not. I also have options on it that i will keep for a while yet. 

This was simply a money management operation.

I probably have forgotten something I meant to say. 

Maybe I'll see ya @ the close.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Thank you for taking the time to write it all down. Most if it is way over my head, so saved it in my "Crazy trading ideas from The Tosser" folder for the future lol

I was reading about shorting both VXX and XIV yesterday, and now reading this white paper: Easy Volatility Investing - wonder if the graph at the bottom of it is for real:









(Will be less afraid to get stuck with HVI if we're entering the bear market - which I don't think we are, and I'm stuck with other losers as it is, so the more the merrier lol)

Anyways, this is a very exciting new world - thank you for showing it to me


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> I was reading about shorting both VXX and XIV yesterday,....


Likely not too surprising to you since i eat, sleep and drink vix, but someone i am mentoring for my 'job' so to speak made an incorrect statement about this very concept last night so i ended up explaining this. It's clearly not tough, when you think of it. The problem is thinking of it without being prompted to 'think'. 

There has to be a Yogi-Berra-ism in there somewhere I am sure of it.

Hey check this out. The market could not hold its gains - stopped out, back in, stopped out..... lol. I'm done for the day. Did a final approx 6% or so since each stop was for a bit. I guess that it for now. Market looking like crap and this is too much work for a Tuesday.

Calendar spread still -64.60 (not in it) but clearly still decent.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Anyways, this is a very exciting new world


It sure is. With 30min left to go the market finally best my AM uvxy short-common numbers. No need to whine, we still have Apr solo-short (low drag, like a sports car), lol, that is hitting lows (+3% today for us) and that thing is being held.

Non-fut's as per plan holding everything short along the curve with 50% cash.

Looking to finalize that ERX long by this Friday option expiration. That thing looked desperate earlier but mighty fine now.

EDIT: Non-fut and XIV plan, fwiw. If we take 30% on XIV I'll cut it and hold 3-5month short-vix etf only, for a spell. This should go a long way in locking in a decent year for 2016 if we don't get out of hand. This obviously isn't happening tomorrow but is at least possible in the next 4-8 weeks so we're going to set it in stone here as the play regardless of how long it eventually takes.


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## Getafix (Dec 29, 2014)

So i finally found something fun to trade on TSX! Traded HVI around 4 times today for an overall profit of almost 6%. I see why you guys like VIX so much now! Didn't want to hold on to a long position as i won't be able to trade tomorrow because of work. I'm happy with taking profits for the day though. You never know what can happen overnight with this thing.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> There has to be a Yogi-Berra-ism in there somewhere I am sure of it.
> 
> Hey check this out. The market could not hold its gains - stopped out, back in, stopped out..... lol. I'm done for the day.


_You can observe a lot by watching._
*Yogi Berra*​
So this morning I checked my husband's balance, he had 4.8K cash, and if it were a few months ago on a regular workday - I would've just entered a limit Buy order for 600 shares of HVI @ $8 - and then tried not to look at it too often.

But since I'm home sick (and we've been watching The Hour (BBC TV series)), decided to paper-trade the hourly dollar-cost averaging. And guess what? lol

So this is how "buy by the hour" (100 shares at 10, 11, 12 - until 3pm, 600 in total) would have worked today:

10am - $8.15
11am - $7.95
12pm - $7.95
1pm - $7.90
2pm - $7.96
3pm - $8.11

Average: $8! lol

In between tried hunting the bottom, gave up, bought 200 shares for $7.89 (which was my exit price last night lol) - will keep them overnight (as most likely will stay home tomorrow as well, so can continue playing )

But yeah, realistically speaking - for working people, picking entry and exit points throughout the day could be challenging, so "buy and hold ouch-potato" it is...


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Getafix said:


> Traded HVI around 4 times today for an overall profit of almost 6%.


I'm too slow... sigh Are you using any tools?


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## Getafix (Dec 29, 2014)

I use TD advanced dashboard to track the real-time pricing of HVI. Then in another window i'll have the VIX index going. For entry-exit signals i use MACD and Stochastics, i usually trade the 1-5 min charts, so seldom hold on to a position for more than a few minutes. Sometimes i'll hold longer if the 10-15-30 are giving buy signals as well.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> The trade is currently @ -$63.75 and I expect this trade to easily reach the -$61K to -$59K area in due course. This would be then upwards of $7K per set.


Motherf!!

It doesn't matter how long i play this game, stuff like this never ceases to amaze me. Tonight, right now, she's -$61.90K so **** it's more or less there before 12hrs passed, lol. So that's +$4,250 per set from yesterday noon. 26.5% r-o-m and that is some great coin.

Anyway heading on that retreat i meant to do a week ago  I'm setting that Apr short vix which it too is up another 2% tonight on a bolt-on program that'll take care of this for me. btw Mi-2, this 'bolt-on' doesn't use a single pre-packaged 'tool'. I think that stuff is sketchy, bordering on superstitious if you take it too far which most will be happy to do.

Good luck to all.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Congrats! You've finally made your vacation money? lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Congrats! You've finally made your vacation money? lol


Uhg, drawing me back in. I didn't expect this sell-off. This market is weak.

ES -21 / YM -209

You know the drill.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> You know the drill.


Yep, I'm buying... :biggrin:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Yep, I'm buying... :biggrin:


I'm having a hard time finding a vein. Can you stick it straight in my neck for me? lol

EDIT:

ES down a full 10% now from Nov high. Russell down 16%, TSX gotta be 11%, ouch my potato. Time for a relief rally before hitting doom street.


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)




----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

lmfao what already? Fed James Bullard, oil causing low inflation now, rofl. what did it take, a couple of weeks <shaking head>.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-oil-s-fall-may-delay-inflation-return-to-2-

Oh and uhm..


> "St. Louis Fed leader says oil is still net positive for U.S."


rofl, Not a chance. Low oil (this low) is absolutely deadly. There's is nothing 'net' positive about this oil beat-down to the US economy. It's all bad, and the puny saving to the consumer is mostly illusionary when compared to what has been lost. Night and day numbers, an argument for fools.

This is one of the FOMC members that is especially clueless, or maybe he's just "Special".

Where's the Inflation boogey-man? Of course, he's under the bed, or in the closet. Turn on the light, oh, he isn't there, lol. This guy is pathetic. 

Mi-2 you must have a stock photo of a dog chasing its tail.


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

What happened to your retreat - or it's too boring there? lol


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> What happened to your retreat - or it's too boring there? lol


Oh i'm good, but beating on James Bullard is like having double the vacation time. 


btw: We must be at a market bottom. FCX wasn't down today, lol. 

Don't let stuff get away on me while i am gone :neglected:


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Well stock futures are slightly red, VIX futures are plus two, my formerly extremely risk-averse husband wasn't worried at all yesterday when the markets turned downhill and I bought more HVI in his account - I guess playing with inverse volatility ETF under the bear scare adds the extra "umph" flare lol



dlhunter said:


> interesting read:
> 
> At the cash close for oil futures at 2:30PM on Wednesday, there was a massive sell program running various stocks.
> 
> ...


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Well stock futures are slightly red,


Yeah i'll say! lol

ES -36 / YM -300

Update: Tough call, but gotta go with the probabilities here. As oil moves sub $30 over night I dumped 1/2 long oil position for the loss in favour of vix short. I like both but vix short has a higher prob moving forward so the funds must go to that trade. I'm doing vix calendar spreads as noted several posts ago. I did some trading around of oil over the past few weeks and the cost is about 36.50-$37 Bbl so a good -$7 on the trade. I'll see how things go next week before making any further moves.

Keep it between the goal posts until Monday.

EDIT: We're now off the "Armageddon size" vix short. Nothing crazy yet but at least we can call it a position. Non-fut accounts are no change of course. We've hit nothing of significance for them. 50% cash, the rest vix short along the curve.


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Update:

Closed ERX short puts $2.70/sh loss. Stock dropped $6.00 during that time.

Rolled to ERY short $40 calls for Feb 19th.

Like ERY much better any way you slice it, yet it had been so long i forgot it existed at the time of initial erx entry and first roll. My bad 

Accounting goes like this. ERY short $40 calls will make up for and best erx loss by almost 2X, and didn't have to go big at all to get it done. Just normal option rolling without size steam-rolling, lol.

Mi-2 i thought it was your job to keep the wheel on the market until Monday?

EDIT: SP500 sitting right at those August lows and we're on top of the weekend to boot! Hows that for 2 years given back in 2 weeks (2.5yr TSX)  Ouch-potato?


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Jan 9th, Post # 243



The_Tosser said:


> As far as ES levels go, I had 1908 as support and we tagged 1910 so we'll call that close enough. My next level down is 1883 and then 1864. After that i don't have anything.


ES 1864 right now... after that, what did i say?? lol Uhoh. I still don't have a level below. We've tagged it as lows for the past 4-5 hours now. Why stop here? 

I so want to re-open the non-fute's lol. Can't do it, we ain't at that level yet. Who knows we may miss it but i see no reason yet to pounce here. XIV 18.24 as a marker.

See ya next week.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Yay I somehow managed to get the last HVI order executed 1 cent below the current Low lol:

View attachment 7898


View attachment 7906


Back to work (need the income to fund my addiction lol - made a 5K transfer this morning, for more fun next week... )

Oops, thought I entered 6.69 - oh well, "close enough"


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Back to work (need the income to fund my addiction lol - made a 5K transfer this morning, for more fun next week... )


"Fun" being the operative word. Hey this is pretty crazy stuff. This is the type of day they carry people straight off to the morgue if they were too big in the futures.

This brings up something i meant to say back in calendar-spread discussion. You may be tempted to break your pair (sell the long vix that is screaming higher). Well, I'm just gonna say I'm not doing that, lol. This isn't near the time to play John Wayne. One has to mind their manners with vix. She is evil as hell. Check your Armageddon levels.  ES -62 / YM - 510, we just bounce off that extreme spike-down that Aug 24 morning.

OK I'm out - for reals!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Back for the close, i guess not for reals on my last. Take the needle out!

Mi-2 Taking a trading position equiv long XIV @ 18.25 as 1864 on ES is holding.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

*VIX/XIV hold'em lol*

Well - at least we're HVI-negative with $8,2K well in-wasted :biggrin:

My RRSP: 400 @ $9.3375 = $3,735
Husband's RRSP: 600 @ $7.4567 = $4,474.02










(Funny that I only needed to make $200 in my husband's to buy VW 2.8% short-term bond that he didn't want to buy and now it's yielding only 2.4%, so might as well hold HVI there, too )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> *
> VIX/XIV hold'em lol *
> 
> Well - at least we're HVI-negative with $8,2K well in-wasted :biggrin:


lol. OK I gotta take next week off too. The powers that be must have known i was going to only be able to keep one eye on things. Next week, no chance, only a 1/2 an eye, or one peek every other day. No options-ex to worry about all of next week. This type of day is sure to get your blood flowing. 

I note that today HVI/XIV finished middle of the road. I am impressed.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> lol. OK I gotta take next week off too. [] This type of day is sure to get your blood flowing.


Yeah next week I'll be peeking less, too - my boss's boss is in town, and rumour has it that I'm finally getting that freaking promotion I've been (im)patiently waiting for since the summer (AND a raise - let's see if it's gonna be more than I spent on HVI... lol) So I'll remember this day as a good one :biggrin:

Go party hard!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> - wonder if the graph at the bottom of it is for real:
> 
> View attachment 7842


Unfortunately the guy tops off what is otherwise a great paper by drawing a poorly formed graph with a horribly ignorant conclusion. 

From the paper the guy clearly knows it's "not that easy" and in fact much earlier on you can find a more realistic graph that show's just how not easy it is.

Oh well, on the whole it's a great paper so i won't nit-pick too much. I have a copy of it somewhere as I'm pretty sure i read it within 6 months of its release. I'm kinda slow like that  

If you haven't done it yet, have a look at some of his reference work.

Enjoy!


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

so, i've been popping by this thread every couple of days or so, for what?- 2 months now?. I haven't a clue what you're doing, but i assume it's all aimed at making a few bucks. have you? i mean have you actually taken any profits off the table & into you pocket or whatever? curious...


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Unfortunately the guy tops off what is otherwise a great paper by drawing a poorly formed graph with a horribly ignorant conclusion.


well, he did say "just for fun" - maybe he meant it...  we're gonna hold what we've got, but won't be buying more - as we need to learn to sell lol 

So what do you do for fun in your retreat?


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> So what do you do for fun in your retreat?


Trade the markets  lol


----------



## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

jargey3000 said:


> so, i've been popping by this thread every couple of days or so, for what?- 2 months now?. I haven't a clue what you're doing, but i assume it's all aimed at making a few bucks. have you? i mean have you actually taken any profits off the table & into you pocket or whatever? curious...


If you mean me, Post # 157, 12 days ago.

I don't blame you for missing it. We've gone off the rails a bit on many topics from Jan 4, 2016, lol.

Somewhere since then I made a post or two highlighting my current vix play which is a term structure play. I am currently in that and added to it on Friday by jumping ship from a lesser probability play (oil) to use the same money in a better play. Maybe not in the immediate term but pretty much guaranteed in any reasonable time frame.

The "TS" play was entered on Thursday as Wed or Tues the original one was exited along with uvxy short ($42 to $37 i think?) for some very nice short term gains. Unless Monday is a bloodbath the term structure ("TS" from now on) play will likely be 'green' already as it almost was by Friday close. I'll let you know.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

uh, not sure if i understand the last 3 posts (322, 323, 324)? so - is this all "pretend"? just for fun?


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> uh, not sure if i understand the last 3 posts (322, 323, 324)? so - is this all "pretend"? just for fun?


Tosser's post #320 was a response to the graph at the bottom of the white paper from my post #294:



Moneytoo said:


> I was reading about shorting both VXX and XIV yesterday, and now reading this white paper: Easy Volatility Investing - wonder if the graph at the bottom of it is for real:
> 
> View attachment 7842
> 
> ...


Open the graph and you should understand my post #322 

#323 was a response to my question what The_Tosser does for fun - and #324 was a response to yours  And no, it's not all "pretend" lol


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> I haven't a clue what you're doing, but i assume it's all aimed at making a few bucks. have you? i mean have you actually taken any profits off the table & into you pocket or whatever? curious...


I don't have the tools & the skills for day trading (let alone to do what The_Tosser does), so I'm trying to do "volatility swing-trading for dummies" using HVI that I described to you in post #270:



Moneytoo said:


> In even simpler words: look at its chart, buy it as low as you can, sell as high as you can wait lol


So far I made $184.55 - posts #287 & #289, with the screenshot of the executed orders from the Questrade mobile app (and realized that to make day-trading worth the commissions, I'd need to risk larger amounts - which I'm not ready to do just yet )

In post #317 I listed our current positions of HVI:

My RRSP: 400 @ $9.3375 = $3,735
Husband's RRSP: 600 @ $7.4567 = $4,474.02

So I have $8.2K of real money in the game (current market value - $6,840) I'm planning to hold'em until it's profitable to sell them - don't know when it's gonna be, in a few days, weeks or months, but will post here after I do 

Why don't you try paper-trading HVI? For example, "Buy" 1000 shares on Monday afternoon - "Sell" right before the close - see how much you've made or lost (and yes, when Buy and Sell are in quotes - it's "pretend" )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Tosser's post #320 was a response to the graph at the bottom of the white paper from my post #294:
> 
> Open the graph and you should understand my post #322
> 
> #323 was a response to my question what The_Tosser does for fun - and #324 was a response to yours  And no, it's not all "pretend" lol


lol you might need to draw him a road map.  Perhaps a Venn diagram might be more appropriate, :smilet-digitalpoint


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

thanks for explaining ...i think 
_Why don't you try paper-trading HVI? For example, "Buy" 1000 shares on Monday afternoon - "Sell" right before the close - see how much you've made or lost (and yes, when Buy and Sell are in quotes - it's "pretend" )_
I might just try that !!!!


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> lol you might need to draw him a road map.  Perhaps a Venn diagram might be more appropriate, :smilet-digitalpoint


Well (a small - thank god) part of my job is dealing with the "business people", who are not interested in the technical mumbo-jumbo and are focused on two things:

1) how soon it can be done?
2) how much it's gonna cost?

- and then start bitching about the quality after the release, when the customers aren't happy. So we keep this diagram handy lol:


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> I might just try that !!!!


Good luck - and let us know how it goes!  Just remember that buying inverse volatility means that you're betting that high(er) market choppiness will (eventually ) subside. So if there're some bad news during the day - HVI most likely will go down, together with the S&P 500 (which will be closed on Monday for the MLK day ) By watching them for awhile you'll start seeing the connection - and then can google ES and YM to understand what the day traders are saying :biggrin:


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

HVI vs VXX...what's the difference please?


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> HVI vs VXX...what's the difference please?


They're the opposites, HVI is VXX short in CAD


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

ok... that's KINDA what i thought.
sooooo.... if one goes up - the other goes down? and vice-versa? (prob. not that simple)


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> sooooo.... if one goes up - the other goes down? and vice-versa? (prob. not that simple)


Yep, it's that simple  I've been watching VXX vs XIV (in USD) and HUV vs HVI (in CAD) and the only laggard is HUV (because of a very low volume - sometimes it trades only a few times a day, so misses the sharp daily swings - that's why I wouldn't use it if I wanted to bet on a rising volatility and would go with VXX instead; but HVI is pretty accurate and liquid)

Now, if you want to know why inverse volatility ETFs are somewhat safer than the direct ones - you'd have to read up on contango and decaying


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

thanks. got quite enough to chew on - for now!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> The "TS" play was entered on Thursday as Wed or Tues the original one was exited along with uvxy short ($42 to $37 i think?) for some very nice short term gains. Unless Monday is a bloodbath the term structure ("TS" from now on) play will likely be 'green' already as it almost was by Friday close. I'll let you know.


Oh snap..  lol

What are you talking about, this IS vacation.

And it must be summer vacation because i see green :biggrin:

It never pays to be a doomer.

ES + 31 / YM +260


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Back for the close, i guess not for reals on my last. Take the needle out!
> 
> Mi-2 Taking a trading position equiv long XIV @ 18.25 as 1864 on ES is holding.


OK Mi-2, I'm taking that trading position off here @ $19.25 equiv, +5.5% i do believe.

I rolled it down-stream and will hold it for a while in a more efficient trade for said longer hold.


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## Eoink15 (Feb 25, 2015)

So I am a new poster here! Dabble in shares now and again!! I bought both HVI and FM yesterday for the fun. Are these good to hold on to for the long haul or otherwise?! I am a total rookie at this FYI!!
Cheers guys!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Eoink15 said:


> So I am a new poster here! Dabble in shares now and again!! I bought both HVI and FM yesterday for the fun. Are these good to hold on to for the long haul or otherwise?! I am a total rookie at this FYI!!
> Cheers guys!


FM, do you mean F**k Me! of First Quantum!? 

Either way they both mean the same thing. FM.TO down 75% in a year. You don't have enough money to average down on complete garbage like that but i suspect there's enough people around here wiling to sell you some real cheap 

Not to mention FM is not a 'Vol' nor 'Note' so it has no relevance in this thread 

HVI? Choose your points well. Good Luck!

P.S. Congrats on FM over-night win. Us blind nuts find a squirrel once in a while. Do note this was not stock picking, just riding the same wave most that are long are doing today, since the market is up so much. Recognize the difference. Most don't!


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> OK Mi-2, I'm taking that trading position off here @ $19.25 equiv, +5.5% i do believe.
> 
> I rolled it down-stream and will hold it for a while in a more efficient trade for said longer hold.


Wow what a quick drop (almost) back to the previous close... Perfect timing for you, as usually!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Wow what a quick drop (almost) back to the previous close... Perfect timing for you, as usually!


i got lucky.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

taking the spread long May vix, short 4X July vix @ -68.90K

I would like to get out if it before the close today but would also be happy enough holding.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

You can only do those spreads through Interactive Brokers in Canada, right?..


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> You can only do those spreads through Interactive Brokers in Canada, right?..


if you can trade futures, you can do spreads. it doesn't matter who you do it through.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Opening up the non-futes accounts. Not to spend more, but to roll 1/3 ZIV to XIV. ES -12 near 1864 at the moment.

I'll roll out of ZIV and into XIV as/if we continue to drop. I'll start spending the 50% cash balance only after that. I'll roll on large moves from here only.

I'm thinking if vix hits 30 type of thing, for the next 1/3 roll.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

If last year is any indication, we'll have one more down week before it starts going up - so you'll be back just in time :biggrin:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Gooood morning. lol. 

Go ahead FOMC committee, i dare you to raise int rates asap again and save us from all of this inflation, rofl.

I see no indication of any fresh fiscal or monetary action yet. But i'm watching


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Opening up the non-futes accounts. Not to spend more, but to roll 1/3 ZIV to XIV. ES -12 near 1864 at the moment.
> 
> I'll roll out of ZIV and into XIV as/if we continue to drop. I'll start spending the 50% cash balance only after that. I'll roll on large moves from here only.
> 
> I'm thinking if vix hits 30 type of thing, for the next 1/3 roll.


BTW I didn't mean to be coy about price, i just didn't give it at the time. The combo price on a per 100 shares min basis (for ZIV) was $130 using buy 200 XIV / Sell 100 ZIV to keep actual dollar amounts about as close to zero as desired at this time.

Using the combo of $130 also allows you to tell when or if you're decision to roll closer in on the curve was a good one or not, plus gives PnL of decision of course.

I'm trying to get $100 for the next 1/3 but we'll see. This spread was $400 only a few days ago and was $1000+ back in December.

EDIT: Got 116 @ the open. close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades.


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## Eoink15 (Feb 25, 2015)

I think I might have made a mistake buying fm and HVI 2days ago:-/!!!!

Did I?


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Eoink15 said:


> I think I might have made a mistake buying fm and HVI 2days ago:-/!!!!
> 
> Did I?


Yep, looks like it... But, then again, I made a mistake buying almost everything until two days ago lol


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## Eoink15 (Feb 25, 2015)

Are these good holders? 
I'm scepticle !!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> BTW I didn't mean to be coy about price, i just didn't give it at the time. The combo price on a per 100 shares min basis (for ZIV) was $130 using buy 200 XIV / Sell 100 ZIV to keep actual dollar amounts about as close to zero as desired at this time.
> 
> Using the combo of $130 also allows you to tell when or if you're decision to roll closer in on the curve was a good one or not, plus gives PnL of decision of course.
> 
> ...


Final 1/3 just done @ $16

I'll give it a bit before deploying the remaining 50% cash. Now we have a market!

We're currently down 3.5% and i think limit-down is very possible today but just the same i want to get the roll completed here.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Eoink15 said:


> Are these good holders?
> I'm scepticle !!


No, they're terrible, I'd even say the worst! Sell & run & never look back!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> No, they're terrible, I'd even say the worst! Sell & run & never look back!


well we have a market now. We're not even at the $15 XIV for additional cash deployment. But give it to the end of the day 

I know i've said it before but i'm pretty much vix only so not sitting in stocks, way higher than current. I'd not be be too interested yet in adding to vix-short just yet. Ya'll are long delta much higher, no need to make it worse just yet.

I'd sooner miss the 'bottom' myself. Placing no money where that comment is, I'm not adding to vix-short here myself and i actually want to do it. I have however opted to move From M3-M5, back closer to M1 on the term structure (XIV/HVI.TO) where most of the damage has been done.

XIV/ZIV 'swap' done net @ $0.88 for those keeping score. We'll see how this dog hunts.

Good Luck!

EDIT: Oh hey, Armageddon to me with HVI looks like $3.50. Not to scare anyone, but you must be real about this. XIV about $10, i do believe i said it before?


----------



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Bought spxs this AM. Its up! lol. Now is the time to bet against the S&P. Otherwise, I'm 90% cash and short term bonds. I expect to go long sometime later this year.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> I have however opted to move From M3-M5, back closer to M1 on the term structure (XIV/HVI.TO) where most of the damage has been done.


What's interesting - Canadabulls recommended to short HVI for 3 weeks now:

Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY SHORT. The previous *SHORT* signal was issued on 30/12/2015, 20 days ago, when the stock price was 9.8900. Since then *HVI.TO has fallen by -30.64%.*

while Americanbulls had a failed Buy on XIV in between:

Our system’s recommendation today is to *SHORT*. The BEARISH ENGULFING pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed below the confirmation level which was at 19.7900, and our valid average selling price stands now at 19.1400. The previous *BUY* signal was issued on 01/12/2016, 7 days ago, when the stock price was 21.8900. Since then *XIV has fallen by -12.56%.*

(I have no more cash, as usually, so just watching - maybe will paper-trade Canadabulls Buy-Sell signals as they suit my swing-trading aspirations, in a sense that they are issued less frequently than day-trading ones )


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Pluto said:


> Bought spxs this AM. Its up! lol. Now is the time to bet against the S&P. Otherwise, I'm 90% cash and short term bonds. I expect to go long sometime later this year.


Yay Pluto great to see you in this thread!  I know, I know, I should've listened - after we cross half a mil, I'll be much less careless (I hope lol)


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## Eoink15 (Feb 25, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> The_Tosser said:
> 
> 
> > I have however opted to move From M3-M5, back closer to M1 on the term structure (XIV/HVI.TO) where most of the damage has been done.
> ...


So short as in buy now? 
And sell when??! 
Confusing stuff!!


----------



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Moneytoo said:


> Yay Pluto great to see you in this thread!  I know, I know, I should've listened - after we cross half a mil, I'll be much less careless (I hope lol)


Well I know I'm very opinionated, but I try very hard not to micro mange others. Just give my views and back off. 

One strategy to mitigate this is to get a margin account, then after the dust settles buy some quality stock on margin. Hold during the early phase of a new bull market then gradually sell enough into rallies to get off margin.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> I have however opted to move From M3-M5, back closer to M1 on the term structure (XIV/HVI.TO) where most of the damage has been done.
> 
> XIV/ZIV 'swap' done net @ $0.88 for those keeping score. We'll see how this dog hunts.


Oh Ye of little faith, have you not heard the word of VIX, your god?


> _
> Thou shalt have no other trades before me.
> 
> Thous shalt not covet the short-Vix of your neighbour, nor his term structure, nor his margin level.
> ...


Thus endeth the Epistle of the fathful Apostle Tosser, to the peoples of Doom....

Oh yeah XIV/ZIV swap @ $0.88 is now sitting at $1.65 So while people were busying with the dooming, some were making best use of already in play funds. This equates to about 1% you don't have to make up for in XIV making today almost a wash, lol.

Let's not say we had no time to do so. If there's time to doom and make posts, there's time to also use our noggins to give us our best shot. 

I have no plans to 're-swap' at this point in time. I will advise.

EDIT: Lmao


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

All hail TT! lol


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Oh yeah XIV/ZIV swap @ $0.88 is now sitting at $1.65 ......



Hey not to confuse anyone but i did you no favours originally quoting in 100's then swapped to LCD of 1 share.

0.88 = $88, $1.65 = $165

I'll quote original numbers moving forward. I don't see the difference myself but i would not want confuse Eoink15 needlessly.



> So short as in buy now?
> And sell when??!
> Confusing stuff!!


lol


----------



## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> The combo price on a per 100 shares min basis (for ZIV) was $130 using buy 200 XIV / Sell 100 ZIV to keep actual dollar amounts about as close to zero as desired at this time.





> Hey not to confuse anyone but i did you no favours originally quoting in 100's then swapped to LCD of 1 share.
> 
> 0.88 = $88, $1.65 = $165


Ok, confused me for sure even after correction lol Trying to understand what ratios you're referring to using closing prices:

200 XIV x $17.96 / 100 ZIV x $34.35 = $3,592 / $3,435 = $1.05 - is this what you do with mid-day prices or the formula has changed also?

But I'm nowhere near trying this myself, so can take your word for it (all I can see is that XIV is 1% more down than ZIV for the day )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Ok, confused me for sure even after correction lol Trying to understand what ratios you're referring to using closing prices:
> 
> 200 XIV x $17.96 / 100 ZIV x $34.35 = $3,592 / $3,435 = $1.05 - is this what you do with mid-day prices or the formula has changed also?
> 
> But I'm nowhere near trying this myself, so can take your word for it (all I can see is that XIV is 1% more down than ZIV for the day )


So to use approx numbers i rolled to around 12:30PM EST today.

Sold ZIV @ $33, Bought XIV @ 16.58 area. To keep notional near identical so i would not add any funds to the trade, more or less, We did (using 100 share on the one side (100 Multiplier) ) 100 ZIV and 200 XIV

This was a cost of around $16 as noted. (I could be a dollar or two off at most)

Using numbers near 4PM as they were jumping around a lot, we had ZIV @ 34.35 and XIV @ 17.96 so a notional of $157. I just moved the decimal by 100 in the latter posts - i left out the multiplier - it really makes no difference, it's the same thing and i rarely notice.

You're 'better off' by the difference between the two, for doing this trade (this slide closer to M1).

At the time, XIV was down way more than ZIV, thus the contraction of the spread towards "$16".

My plan is to slide back later on if i get a chance, just to lay some risk off but stay in the trade with the same amount of capital at play and the same original position, just better off by X for daring to play the term structure.

That's the plan anyway.

EDIT: LCD = lowest common denominator, from past posts.

Also, notice with stocks, you're just fooked. You can't do anything remotely like this. It's just bad all day long. lol. Ask T-Snooze, he'll tell you  lol

I don't care so much about being wrong. I just want to at least have the chance to better a position as odds keep getting better and better. It truly is a game of probabilities. That's how i look at it. Simply numbers running. Usually it works, sometimes it doesn't. I don't change anything for any reason that doesn't fit the pot odds.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Now I know how jargey feels... lol Thank you, I'll try re-reading it later (when I'm less tired )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Now I know how jargey feels... lol Thank you, I'll try re-reading it later (when I'm less tired )


It's like anything. Once you do it a few times you get it instantly. Then you just get quicker at it and stop having to 'think'. 

I no longer think about any of it. It's like driving to work through the city. You don't really recall all the lights that you went through being green, but you're confident that your sub-conscious mind is at the wheel and will alert your conscious mind when you have to hit the brake. 

EDIT: Think of the example 2 posts ago as if you had no positions on at the beginning of the day.

You sold (shorted) 100 ZIV and bought (long) 200 XIV.

Then at the close, you unwound the position. Are you up or down? You're up $141. (157-16). btw the gain came from a flattening of the term structure from a steep decline.

It's no different than already being in the trade, you're still better off by that amount. "Unwinding" in this case just means getting back to your original ZIV and XIV positions.. which i have not done yet, but plan to at better prices yet.

Here's the interesting part. 100% of people reading this would happily do this trade if they came in flat at the open today. But they would refuse to do the exact same trade if it meant taking a (temporary) loss on ZIV as i did because i was long both ZIV and XIV as you recall in those accounts.

Monetarily it's the exact same thing. Psychologically they couldn't fathom such a thing, lol. 

Now that right there has got to be the realization of this entire thread. lol. 

This is pretty much top of the heap of what i look for in someone when they're trading. It tells you everything about how they can overcome human silliness when their own funds are on the line. That's why i love this game so much.

Math mistakes or miss-speaks not intentional 

Ok I"m off for a couple of days - serious!!! (no really..)


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> It's no different than already being in the trade, you're still better off by that amount. "Unwinding" in this case just means getting back to your original ZIV and XIV positions.. which i have not done yet, but plan to at better prices yet.


Yep, that's what I couldn't understand - why do this to begin with? And then the "how"... Once "why" and "how" are clear - the rest is easy 

From the looks of it, I won't be selling HVI for a while - and need to accumulate CAD to convert to USD before trying XIV <-> ZIV (avoiding the VXX temptation... lol) But hopefully my subconsciousness will remember the important stuff 



> Ok I"m off for a couple of days - serious!!! (no really..)


I have three important back-to-back meetings tomorrow - please have a great time wherever you go!


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> XIV/ZIV swap @ $0.88 is now sitting at $1.65 ..........


"swapped" 1/3 back to lay off a bit of risk @ $1.86 I'll take that 1.5% overnight presto-change-o, on top of a rising XIV / ZIV to boot  

Shhhh I'm not here.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

> *Volatility strategies remain top of mind*
> 
> One longer-term trend among HNW investors is the continued attraction of volatility-based strategies – long/short and market neutral funds in particular, and more broadly, the entire alternatives category.
> 
> We expect continued “smart money” flows into hedging strategies throughout 2016, and in such an environment, we expect active managers to start to outperform passive investments. If the year shapes up largely to what HNW investors expect, the argument for managers who can potentially add alpha in both up and down markets will become very persuasive indeed. We use a combination of both active managers and passive ETFs as optimal in this environment.


Thane Stenner: What high-net-worth investors can expect in 2016


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> taking the spread long May vix, short 4X July vix @ -68.90K
> 
> I would like to get out if it before the close today but would also be happy enough holding.


Out of this trading position @ -67.85K So call it +$1,000 per pair.

I have a lot of this stuff and this is my premiere trade for the rest of 2016. It'll have to be rolled now and again but i have a nice window to play off of for that. I'll be letting this thing hunt for a while. Once/if vix calms down i'll switch back to trading some of it.

I expect no less than +$10K per pair before too long if this market hangs together even remotely well.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

> XIV/ZIV swap @ $0.88 is now sitting at $1.65 ..........





The_Tosser said:


> "swapped" 1/3 back to lay off a bit of risk @ $1.86 I'll take that 1.5% overnight presto-change-o, on top of a rising XIV / ZIV to boot
> 
> Shhhh I'm not here.


Did the 2nd third @ $215.

So again what did we accomplish? I had said we did an even exchange of dollars and slid closer in on the curve. As you can see it was 'close' to an even exchange. It was $88 per approx $6.3K of investment. This was as close as you could get without breaking up the even lots.

So in exchange for that $88 addition investment per $6.3K you opted into what would likely be a better return moving forward in the short run, got your $88 back and then had added to it, in this case another $127 per. I don't see where you're going to get a better deal than that with that type of probability and as it turns out as quick of a return of a couple of days.

Now all we're doing is taking that profit and getting back into the exact position before this melee started, which itself is getting close to green for the year.

If its required we'll do it all again. If not we have 1/3 left to reap.

See ya next week...

EDIT:

btw


> taking the spread long May vix, short 4X July vix @ -68.90K


is hitting high of day as we speak. @ -67.80K

Let's see if it runs @ 4PM EST close.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Did the 2nd third @ $215.


Screw it, out final 1/3 @ $226

gonna lay low and put the non-futures accounts back to hibernation mode, after a decent run.

Ouch-potato vix account back to 25% XIV, 25% ZIV and 50% cash and sniffing around green for the year. There's time left to let it hang out and get wild. We're sitting back in the weeds for now with only 3 weeks gone in the year.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

The_Tosser said:


> Update:
> 
> Closed ERX short puts $2.70/sh loss. Stock dropped $6.00 during that time.
> 
> ...


Ha, victory is mine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEcnttsjn6o A week ago today i rolled to ERY short Feb $40 calls right in the heat of it.

Just closed the ERY short position entirely. Made back what was lost in ERX long and then some for my less than considerable efforts 

The margin used in naked positions is high and i have better uses for it in.....wait for it,............ vix


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

> taking the spread long May vix, short 4X July vix @ -68.90K





The_Tosser said:


> Out of this trading position @ -67.85K So call it +$1,000 per pair.
> 
> I have a lot of this stuff and this is my premiere trade for the rest of 2016.............
> I expect no less than +$10K per pair before too long if this market hangs together even remotely well.


The market price Closed @ -67.10K

From the absolute lows it's up $5K per spread, (2 days ago) but when i say +$10K I meant from the close yest/near open today, which is almost +$2K per spread already.

Dumping ERY for win (prev post) will set me up to hold what i already have and will allow easily for another trading position on future vix spike which i expect to see next week.

Tucked into bed.

It's flying all around you. Reach out and grab it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QyoRzZrF00

<mic drop> :untroubled:

EDIT:

Jesus, -$66.50K by 4:14PM lol. That 15min after 4PM EST rules once again.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Congrats!  New video from TS (watching now..):


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Congrats!  New video from TS (watching now..):



Now it's getting scary because we are syncing up here. Just watching it myself prior to reading your post.

Lets break it down because T-Snoozes says so much. There's hardly a guy i agree with more even if we're on separate sides of the trade sometimes. It doesn't matter, that's completely unimportant to either of us.

1:40 "Do you attempt to explain what is going on in the markets?" Tom: No. No No.... to everything.

lol exactly. Contrast that with the daily CMF babble about Fibs, moon phases, fundamentals and astrology. Then move to bench warmers never making it on the field. But i repeat myself. Night and day type of trader/investor.

2:15 Jesus camera dude, wake the hell up and move to Tom.

2:21 it's about time. Amateur. 

5:15 "The Fed validates stupidity" yep. 've discussed this on this thread 2-3 times. Most are dumb as stumps, effing economics all up, 24-7, focusing on all the wrong things, like posturing over rate hikes and inflation instead of using their heads.

5:45 "The Fed made the mistake of not selling into strength" lol. I like that. I agree in part, don't raise rates as we're rolling over because you look real dumb when the numbers are getting worse as you're raising the rates,....... but again i disagree with Tom as i know that monetary policy doesn't trump fiscal policy which unfortunately can't find the ball park never mind play the game. Fiscal policy is a continuous no-show so the Fed is screwed either way. Yellen and 'The Bernanke' said as much many times.

6:40 "I don't have the understanding of why people would have the traditional view of the stock market..." roflmao and go to 8:00 to get the whole story.

Exactly, we can pretty much end it here.

If you don't remember anything else remember this. The stock market doesn't reflect fundamentals in any way that is actionable and useful on a regular basis.

If it did, it would never be this volatile. Businesses don't actually change near this much. No chance.

If it did, the people paying top dollar for financial degrees would have had it well figured out long ago. 

Instead of paying to take a course that told them things like diversification among different equity sub-classes is actually diversification, when the reality of it is anyone with more than a month's time in in investing should know the correlation of stocks goes to **** exactly when you needed it the most, rofl. this is a DUH? moment for most financial kids. The sad thing is their Prof's should have ended the class with "But this is all bullshit in real life, remember it long enough to take the test"......... lol. 

This is why Tom is so great to listen to. He knows, good, long time traders know, retail however is in the ditch. Forget them, it's over. They refuse to learn. Don't argue with them past a single post. They're right, you're wrong, you can't time the market in any meaningful way, rofl.


8:58 to 10:15 Poker playing. Yeah sometimes you lose on a great hand. It happens. Long term a good poker player makes bank for a reason. The stock market is much more risk-reward "pot-odds" gambling than it is anything else.


10:30 "Markets are presenting the best odds in over 2 years". Yes,a nd this vid was posted before the -500 on DJ 2-3 days later. Yes, exactly. I'm not saying go all-in, no chance. Most people are up to their asses in miles underwater stocks. I cna't help them. But for those with cash, there's you opportunity. pot-odds were firming up in your favour. those that were 90%-100% cash then, are still 90%-100% cash today, rofl. You saw it here on this very thread. Doomers and bench warmers unable to see it and they had the best opportunity of anyone, not having anything in the game at the time. They'll never get it. If they couldn't pony up in 2008/09, or over the past few days, they never will, I guarantee you that. They're write-offs. Ignore them. Being smart and wrong trumps dumb and 100% cash. One is learning, the other is brain dead.

You get where i'm going. Enjoy his final 20 minutes.

This is the reality of trading markets for a living. You'll find most good traders think exactly the same way, and the 'what' matters much less. It surprises me not that T-snooze and i could go a week of discussing markets and never disagree in any meaningful way.

17:15 - 17:45 "You have 98% of individual stock market investors that have no idea how the stock market really works" Oddly 100% of people agree with this statement, rofl... The second coming IS happening in MY lifetime.... lol.

risk-return it's a no-brainer, at every level the pot-odds change.

18:40 "Everybody that is good with this stuff, bleeds a lot, it's part of the business, that's what happens - so what?", "You're no good if you never take and can't take a punch" It's pot-odds.

Exactly.

Get this **** in your head. It's 110% true.

<mic drop>


lol Damn that was a great dinner and drinks out tonight! rofl. See you on Monday. I love, eat and breathe this ****, i can't get enough. This is vacation  lol

Have a good weekend Mi-2.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Now it's getting scary because we are syncing up here.


Yay - now I'll be able to learn from you telepathically :biggrin:










(c) mindcoprocessor



> Have a good weekend Mi-2.


Thanks - you too, T-2


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

> taking the spread long May vix, short 4X July vix @ -68.90K





The_Tosser said:


> The market price Closed @ -67.10K
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Gonna fly from some of this position here @ -66.25K

I'll be jumping back in this piece, likely tomorrow.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

> taking the spread long May vix, short 4X July vix @ -68.90K





The_Tosser said:


> Gonna fly from some of this position here @ -66.25K
> 
> I'll be jumping back in this piece, likely tomorrow.


Back in this morning @ -66.75K So this is over-night scalp of +$500 per spread. I want to keep the core hold size up so we take it here and do the trading positions later.

Hey I am really liking this buy and hold thing........... wait, what? :rugby: lol.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Created new thread for vix term structure trades.

What are you buying? Volatility Term Structure Spreads


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

*Re: 2016-01-20, 01:11 PM #357*



Moneytoo said:


> What's interesting - Canadabulls recommended to short HVI for 3 weeks now:
> ...
> (I have no more cash, as usually, so just watching - maybe will paper-trade Canadabulls Buy-Sell signals as they suit my swing-trading aspirations, in a sense that they are issued less frequently than day-trading ones )


Yay finally HVI is a Buy (slightly below my husband's average purchase price - and well below mine lol): 

*Signal Update*
Our system’s recommendation today is to *BUY*. The BULLISH ONE WHITE SOLDIER pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 7.1800, and our valid average buying price stands now at 7.2200. The previous *SHORT* signal was issued on 30/12/2015, 30 days ago, when the stock price was 9.8900. Since then *HVI.TO* has fallen by -27.00%.

*Market Outlook*
The bulls have strong evidence on their side and this evidence prompts us to make a bullish bet. The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a *BUY* signal is generated. It is probably the right time to be part of this boost and bullish market sentiment. The market is telling you about a possible new profit. Do not miss this chance. more...
___________________________________________
Let's see if we sell before they trigger a Sell signal..


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> ___________________________________________
> Let's see if we sell before they trigger a Sell signal..


So what's the take home here? Maybe you can time the market?

Maybe buying every month simply because you have cash, even if you're just buying the same great companies higher and higher is really not the smart thing to do?

Look at the SP500 and where this silly buy and hold ouch-tardism came from. What have you made in SPY over the last 15 years - a substantial and most relevant time frame. 4% annual with dividends, is close.

What about the last 20 years? Well it's boosted to 8-10% area.

Let's go back to 1976 so we can include the irrelevant 80 year olds and dead people,.......... yeah about 10%-12% area over 40 years. What you should note here is that the stock market came into its own as it gained in retail popularity. The only people that ever made anything buy and hold are old and dead and they did it years ago because they've not made jack-**** since. In the last significant number of years you're pretty much on life support. The market is not young, it's not new. It's now main-stream with everyone having access. It has been commoditized completely. It is a different game than your grand-parents markets and i suggest ir will never be again, what it once was for the lazy buy and hold. Nor should it be!

Understand that timing the market is not what most think at all. The way people are ingrained is they they look at timing the market as a 10 number combination to a safe. You get all the numbers right or the safe doesn't open. There's no bonus points for getting 9 out of 10, lol. The safe still doesn't open. You've failed.

Reality is it's a graduated slope of small incremental gains on each step. You benefit from getting 4 out of 10 numbers right. Then you get a 2nd shot at the next 6 numbers. You don't start from scratch every time. Doing this with a good vehicle to begin with makes your work of 'beating the market' significantly easier.

Who doesn't believe this? Mainly people that have never even tried. "It can't be done", "I have no time", "It's too hard" :smilet-digitalpoint


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> So what's the take home here? Maybe you can time the market?
> 
> Maybe buying every month simply because you have cash, even if you're just buying the same great companies higher and higher is really not the smart thing to do?


Well I have a few takeaways 

1) "Size does matter". This time 2 years ago I had 35K in my RRSP. Now its Book Value is 95K (Market Value a bit less - down 1%) Even if my account was growing 10%+ per year (which it actually did the first year), it would still be negligible comparing to 30K yearly deposits from savings. I see people with small accounts worrying so much about losing or gaining a few % - and believe that in the beginning it's better to focus on saving & investing following a no-brainer strategy than timing & trading, risking it all to get there faster. Only a few can 

2) "You have to see it to believe it". No matter how many times you read and hear about corrections - you have to live through a few to train your nerves. No way in hell I would've jumped in on Jan 20th, 2016 if I just sat with cash for 2 years, waiting for that "perfect bottom". And of course maybe it wasn't that perfect or even the bottom - but you know what I mean. Building "nerves of steel" takes time, and it's better to do it while still in the accumulation stage (and don't depend on the income from your portfolio)

3) "Opinions are like assholes" - get your own  What seems to be hard for more experienced traders/investors (like yourself) to understand is that, for beginners, jumping from one strategy to another does more damage than good. You see someone who sounds knowledgeable and convincing, you try to follow blindly their advice, and if/when it doesn't work (for whatever reason) - you move on to the next "guru". But even if it works - you better know why, and be able to do it yourself, even if "your way" is less efficient (frankly, I have no clue what you do most of the time - but I get the idea, and hopefully will be able to build on it if/when I get there )

4) "Learn from mistakes" - ok, I need to find a motivational poster somewhere... lol But yeah, this year I'll try to accumulate cash for a few months and do the rebalancing less often. I was buying every month because I'm a shopoholic and it's hard for me to sit with cash  And, I'll try to follow seasonal trends (even though I know by now that they're unreliable) - for example, converting to USD in April and keeping some cash for Sep (or whenever the correction will be this year - or will we see a big bad a bear? )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Well I have a few takeaways
> 
> 1) "Size does matter".


Yes Ma'am. 

Money management helps, but it's pretty evident that greater funds opens up opportunities that you just can't reach otherwise. Also since you brought it up we can't forget that RRSP, TFSA also limits what you can trade vs accounts outside these tax-driven schemes. I feel like i am in a straight-jacket when i am forced to manage funds that are of the above nature. It's a different type of challenge so i do enjoy it, but it is limiting! See "V-O-P" accounts in my most recent thread, lol :smilet-digitalpoint
The mindset however never changes, regardless of account size.



> Building "nerves of steel" takes time,


 Of course it does. It's not so much nerves of steel as it is simply time in and not being so damn afraid of making a bad trade and losing some money once in a while. Anything worth doing takes time to learn, but i hate when i see people that haven't got off the bench telling you how impossible it is. How the f**k would they even know? Because they haven't or couldn't do it, so you can't? rofl. Why don't we just go and lay down and die right now then? lol I mean let's just get it over with, right? :hopelessness:



> "Learn from mistakes"


 Always. It's what makes you better next time.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Oh i missed one.



> What seems to be hard for more experienced traders/investors (like yourself) to understand is that, for beginners, jumping from one strategy to another does more damage than good.


First off all, i did not leap any building with a single bound. I went through exactly what you're doing now and i remember it all.

What i see is common with all 'new' investors or aspiring traders. You just don't see it with clear eyes. I get it, you can't. I know this all too well, lol. Trust me i deal with it daily so even if i wanted to forget it would be impossible. I talk people off the ledge relatively often. Sometimes they jump! The good news there is that at least we're talking metaphorically so they're still physically alive to discuss the postmortem autopsy. People are all alike. It's an easy case. If you've seen a handful you've literally seen them all.

The truth is you don't even have a strategy. I know it, it's up to you to see it. Again we're not talking you specifically, just a general case study. Most people's 'strategy' changes with their socks so if you believe what you wrote, then you're your own worst enemy and it has nothing to do with any outside forces, although they're an easy target and excuse for not getting one's own **** together. Yes it takes time!

I seriously hesitate to get too into your personal positions as much as i know of them since i am not convinced you would take the criticism well, but what the hell,........... back in Nov you were buying with all available cash, i used the word 'chasing' once. OK you said it wasn't i said it was. Why i thought what i did was simply based on a market topping out and much, much more risk than reward and you were already U/W on almost everything that i knew about. My question to everyone was, "where do you think this market was going"? 

Can't people see basic risk-reward? I guess i have my answer! It's not like i was shy and not telling you my v-o-p was anything but 100% cash. What if i was wrong? Really? lol, Not too likely. There's almost zero chance that you would not get a better buy point from there and it would not matter if you had to sit and wait for months. Hey i have done that many times. 100% cash, sitting on the bench waiting for my time @ bat. You're right most people won't do that. The problem is most won't go anywhere near that, lol.

We could go on, but it's the same story. I'm pretty consistent to the extent that i am a degenerate gambler.  Yes it takes time and yes trust me I know all about what you're going through. We're all built the same. I think no differently than you do. I just act differently in the market because it's been trained into me by repetition and i have had more time to reflect upon mistakes no-one else needs to make.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Sorry, have to run - but it's hard to discard all these "easy does it" advice until one is convinced (from the personal experience, not somebody else's) otherwise: http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2016/01/25/why-simple-is-still-a-hard-sell


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> Sorry, have to run - but it's hard to discard all these "easy does it" advice until one is convinced (from the personal experience, not somebody else's) otherwise:


Exactly, it takes time and a lot of reflection and serious personal criticism. You're not saying anything different than anyone else ever has, nor can you short-cut it a whole lot. I like to think it can be sped up, but i see no easy short-cut.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

The_Tosser said:


> Exactly, it takes time and a lot of reflection and serious personal criticism. You're not saying anything different than anyone else ever has, nor can you short-cut it a whole lot. I like to think it can be sped up, but i see no easy short-cut.


I remember hearing the comparison, but don't remember the exact saying, something like "helping someone grow faster is like pulling the plants up"  believe me, I have similar difficulties with my husband - who two years ago was very risk-averse and just wanted "something safe that yields 5%" (so I bought him ZPR and AT&T lol) His accounts are larger, and he doesn't want to actively participate, yet wants to know (and approve) what I'm doing, so I needed to find a compromise that works for both of us. It's like I'm his financial advisor while learning myself 

We just reviewed our portfolio, and agreed that overall we still like it, mistakes and all. He hates GICs idea (because they yield half of what he'd consider worthy of locking up the money for years), so we'll get back to it in May. Maybe I got more careful than him all of a sudden because I'm going through a rough patch with my mom - watching her age 10 years in 10 days is scary, and I wouldn't want him to be stuck with a portfolio that needs constant maintenance if something happened to me...


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> ..............., and I wouldn't want him to be stuck with a portfolio that needs constant maintenance if something happened to me...


Yes Ma'am. 

I call it a financial fire drill. 

Out of the blue I will say, 'OK I just died. Show me what you're supposed to do'.

I don't think i run that drill enough.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Reading "Globe and Mail Report on Business: Feb 2016" (it's my last month of a trial subscription, I won't be renewing it, I promise ), and on Page 15 there's an ad for Romspen Mortgage Investment Fund with a catchy tagline in capitals lol:

"IF YOU'RE IN GICs TODAY,
YOU'RE NOT AN INVESTOR.
YOU'RE A PHILANTHROPIST."

And that's apparently how my husband feels about GICs - so let me update this thread after I sell our HVI (as I still want to prove that it's doable, even if one didn't purchase at the best price and had to hold it longer to make a profit), and then "we shall see what we shall see"...


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> "IF YOU'RE IN GICs TODAY,
> YOU'RE NOT AN INVESTOR.
> YOU'RE A PHILANTHROPIST."


lmao!


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

*Re: 2016-01-16, 09:59 PM #327*



Moneytoo said:


> In post #317 I listed our current positions of HVI:
> 
> My RRSP: 400 @ $9.3375 = $3,735
> Husband's RRSP: *600 @ $7.4567* = $4,474.02
> ...


Just sold my husband's HVI for *$8.25 (~+10.5%/$470* profit after $6 commissions) Was planning to wait a bit longer (for a higher profit), but with oil going down again decided not to be a pig (besides, still have mine, at higher average cost - will keep waiting to sell those... )


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> *Re: 2016-01-16, 09:59 PM #327*
> 
> 
> 
> Just sold my husband's HVI for *$8.25 (~+10.5%/$470* profit after $6 commissions) Was planning to wait a bit longer (for a higher profit), but with oil going down again decided not to be a pig (besides, still have mine, at higher average cost - will keep waiting to sell those... )


Sweet.

I would do the same. Dump some, hold the rest. We're not going to catch it all perfect every time so in any case you've removed risk and lowered your cost base, since we all know what's his is yours anyway :smilet-digitalpoint


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

Well I made a mistake of not selling my shares at a small profit soon after buying them (as you advised ), so tried to do better in my husband's account  And now he wants to play again :biggrin:


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> And now he wants to play again :biggrin:


Sweet. 

I don't see the whites of their eyes, I wouldn't fire yet.


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