# Just Energy



## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Thoughts on this one. 

I like the yield but the chart doesn't look at all appealing.

Cheap or a dog?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Just energy does the door-to-door scams. In the days of interwebz, this is a very bad idea. There are still many clueless Canadians and old people to fall for it (I think we are the most gullible people on earth when it comes to scams to be honest) Just google it to see what I mean

Water heater rentals are a good investment though, as most Ontario houses come with them and nobody is the wiser. "If all my neighbours are renting water heaters, it must be a good idea" Does anybody know a ticker for those guys in white vans who sell flashy speakers, or the Italian guys with the suits?


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

I did get that feeling from some of my research online.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I owned 400 for a couple months, then sold it all.

Yield is nice, but I don't know if i'd buy again.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Same feeling.. wouldn't buy.


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## jamesbe (May 8, 2010)

I bought some a couple of months ago, consensus at the time was it was a strong buy. It has gone down 25% since then  Now I'm just going to hold it for the yield. I only bought a grand so not a big deal really. 

It may actually not be a horrible time to buy as it is low now.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Quarterly reports look fine. Customers up, profits up, water heater and HVAC units up and no plans to cut dividend


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## jamesbe (May 8, 2010)

So it was down 25% now it's only down 6%. Anyone have any further thoughts on this.

I'm thinking I may wait for the recovery now and just buy something more stable.


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

You have to think like Americans.

First of all they were approved to buy back stock in December (Yeah I wrote buy back).

They were recently listed on the NYSE - even rang the morning bell. This is important because the bulk of their business is in the United States...so too would investors come from.

The recent financials are impressive, up where they should be and lower where they should be. These were just quarter ending results I believe. Year end should be soon?

They are also acquiring similar companies in the US.

In the US this business model works and is certainly not unique.

I own very few in my TFSA but a YOC of 11%, tax free is just fine with me.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

I own a good chunk of this and paid $14.27 last Feb. Held it all the way down to $9.37 and now back to $12.65 while accumlating quite a few dripped shares along the way.

I have no love after the brual decline (worst performing holding in my portfolio last year) and will sell when and if it gets back to what I paid (at that point I am up about 8% based on the dripped shares).


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Having kept these on the watch list since posting this thread I have kept an eye on them and watch them decline. 

However last week on reading more about the buy backs, looking through the report and the US listing I decided to buy in.


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

liquidfinance said:


> Having kept these on the watch list since posting this thread I have kept an eye on them and watch them decline.
> 
> However last week on reading more about the buy backs, looking through the report and the US listing I decided to buy in.


Seriously, this is not too bad of an investment, all things considered. 

The main bashing is about the 'door to door' selling tactics. In Canada this is unsavoury, in the US, they have different energy markets and are way more interested in a fixed, long-term price. Foreign to me (litterally) but if that is what gets a customer base, and an increasing one at that, keep it up.

If the YOC is this decent, I will add it to my portfolio - it is not the biggest holding, but rounds it up nicely.

Smoking, alcohol, etc are even less savoury investments, but if they have a sustainable dividend and are making money...


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## Assetologist (Apr 19, 2009)

Seriously, what's wrong with an investment in JE??
Decent numbers.
Solid, steady and high dividend.
It seems nobody is willing to invest in it only trade and sell based on their personal purchase price!
I have bought several times and dripped (synthetic) for about one year.
I am very happy with JE as an investment.
Buy low and have patience.


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

DavidJD said:


> Seriously, this is not too bad of an investment, all things considered.
> 
> The main bashing is about the 'door to door' selling tactics. In Canada this is unsavoury, in the US, they have different energy markets and are way more interested in a fixed, long-term price. Foreign to me (litterally) but if that is what gets a customer base, and an increasing one at that, keep it up.
> 
> ...


I think initially it was the door to door tactics the were putting me off but then as you say if the dividend is sustainable, they are making money and growing the customer base, what's not to like? I just wish I got in earlier instead of dithering about. Still it' all to easy to look back at a chart once its risen from a low.


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

liquidfinance said:


> I think initially it was the door to door tactics the were putting me off but then as you say if the dividend is sustainable, they are making money and growing the customer base, what's not to like? I just wish I got in earlier instead of dithering about. Still it' all to easy to look back at a chart once its risen from a low.


I agree. I live in a province where power is provided by a crown corporation. Would be ridiculous for me to use JE here, however in the US, as a landlord I would REALLY appreciate cost certainty for extended periods of time for utility costs - especially if I include them in rents (commercial or residential).

For some, it may be just ideal. I hope so!

I think this concept is going to really endure in the US and JE is the biggest player for me.


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

I own Centrica in the UK and they run direct energy in NA. I believe this company works on a similar principle to JE in selling fixed price energy and there profits are up 35% on the year. Although Centrica as a whole didnperform so great.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

JE getting KILLED today, down over 6% this morning. Knew I should have dumped it when it got back over $14.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Ihatetaxes said:


> JE getting KILLED today, down over 6% this morning. Knew I should have dumped it when it got back over $14.


Haha my thoughts as well. I was just about to break even and sell haven't felt good about them since I found out they were a door-to-door sales plan. I can't see that model working as more people get better informed online


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Any idea on what is causing this recent battering? I had a quick google and also looked on the company website and can't seem to find any negative news.


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## Canuck (Mar 13, 2012)

mode3sour said:


> Haha my thoughts as well. I was just about to break even and sell haven't felt good about them since I found out they were a door-to-door sales plan. I can't see that model working as more people get better informed online


funny how humans behave, i swore I'd sell it when it reached my purchase price of $13.70, but of course I didn't even when it blew by that... my hate turned to love.
WTF was i thinking...


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

funny how humans behave, i swore I'd sell it when it reached my purchase price of $13.70, but of course I didn't even when it blew by that... my hate turned to love.
WTF was i thinking... 

This is to much of a coincidence.. But Lucky me I did sell 1/2 my position when it touched 14 a couple of weeks ago.
I was thinking the same when it touched 14 to wait for 15 but I need the cash to lose money elsewhere.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Canuck said:


> funny how humans behave, i swore I'd sell it when it reached my purchase price of $13.70, but of course I didn't even when it blew by that... my hate turned to love.
> WTF was i thinking...


Haha yup. I do force myself to sell on my targets though unless something changes. Although there are several I wish I'd never followed through with as well. It's definitely poor practice to focus on you purchase price though. It should be "would I buy in at this price today?" If not then consider selling


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## sam (Mar 16, 2012)

Im glad I sold all my shares @ $13.90 last week.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

http://www.thedividendguyblog.com/dividend-yield-should-not-matter-for-dividend-investors/


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

by reading this "Before buying a stock, I want to make sure that the dividend yield I receive today will be the smallest yield I will ever get from the stock (meaning it will keep increasing over time)." the guy is trying too hard to sound smart and it's not working... ya lets buy a company with 0.5% yeild it's the smaller one, lol, what an idiot



Cal said:


> http://www.thedividendguyblog.com/dividend-yield-should-not-matter-for-dividend-investors/


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

He did state that his minimum criteria for yield is 3%....seems reasonable.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

The thing I always think about high dividend yields (not distributions from an income trust or REITs) is that anytime you get above 7% there is something fundamentally wrong going on. Either the dividend is too high and will need to be cut soon because the earnings and cash flow cannot continue to support it while continuing to make the investments necessary for the company to be competitive, OR the market has become too pessimistic on the stock and the price per share will increase. You just have to decide which side is correct in the long run but in the short run the pessimists are winning the argument.

To me the classic case last year was PBN (Petrobakken). It got beaten up all the way down to 6.25 because the market was pessimistic because of a couple of production misses and they pummelled this stock down 80% from its previous high. Yet at that point there were clear signs of increasing production, good net-backs, good free cash flow and a sustainable dividend. The bleakness really took off once people worried about how to deal with $600M of loans which were coming due early in the new year. Eventually the bulls got in realizing the stock was ridiculously cheap and it now sells for $15. Its yield peaked around 15% but now is down to around 6.4%.

So you just have to decide who is right - will they need to cut dividends? If the answer is no the stock will appreciate.


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