# Fortis (FTS) down 3% today?



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

Anyone know why? A core holding of mine. Buying opp. here, or what?
(I wanna see what the "experts" say - then do the opposite!  )


----------



## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

If markets continue higher, YankeeDoodles will raise rates in Dec,
and Utilities won't be happy.

signed: X Spurt
(now place your bets


----------



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

aha.............
buy! buy! BUY!!!


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Buy indeed. This stock is a dividend machine.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I like Fortis more at or under $40 than when it is closer to $45. It doesn't have enough growth for much value in the $43-45 range. A little picky I suppose but it is the difference between < 3.5% yield and > 4% yield.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

First of all the stock is still near its highs, so you should not be losing any sleep about a minor decline like this.

Secondly, the -3.55% move today is not too out of the ordinary. Here's a 2 year chart of the stock. There's a graph at the top that shows the 1 day rate of change. Notice that while today's -3.55 change is pretty significant versus the last few months, in the bigger scheme it's not unheard of.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60968919572

Last year there were several declines of this magnitude, and a much larger single day decline in 2016.

Overall: the stock is acting pretty normal.


----------



## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

I have $50,000 in my TFSA currently invested in a Balanced Fund. The fund has a return of 2.47% so far this year, so its going pretty slow on this holding. Have been thinking it may be a good time to sell that holding and put some money into solid dividend paying shares. Would Fortis be a good candidate for this type of move, it would give me some income and hopefully grow my investment with some stock price increases also. Will not need the money for at least 5 years at the earliest. If I were to do this this Fortis would be my only holding so it may be better to pick 3-4 companies in different sectors than dumping all of the 50k into Forits. Opinions are welcome of course.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

If your time horizon is 5 years, you should probably be in short-term bonds or GICs, not stocks. I wouldn't recommend any stock or balanced fund for a five year horizon.

If you're looking out at least 10 years then a balanced fund would be fine to continue investing in. Based on your 2.47%, are you using Mawer Balanced? If so it's worth staying in as they have a very good track record. With some decent balanced funds available out there (Mawer Balanced or RBC Monthly Income would be my top picks) I don't see any reason lose that diversification and safety by moving the whole portfolio to FTS.

I do hold FTS but it's less than 10% of my portfolio.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

newfoundlander61 said:


> I have $50,000 in my TFSA currently invested in a Balanced Fund. The fund has a return of 2.47% so far this year, so its going pretty slow on this holding. Have been thinking it may be a good time to sell that holding and put some money into solid dividend paying shares. Would Fortis be a good candidate for this type of move, it would give me some income and hopefully grow my investment with some stock price increases also.



this is the dilemma for every smallish 50k account & also for every newish investor. Wouldn't i do better with individual stocks than my slowpoke balanced fund, the investor wonders.

the problem is that the same factors which are tamping down performance in Mawer are also tamping down performance in individual stocks. What is worse is that an indivual stock can decline farther, as you know.

you've already seen how the possibility of imminent interest rate increase has impacted interest-sensitive stocks such as utilities & REITs. There's no guarantee fortis growth over the next 5 years will outstrip the mawer balanced fund. In fact if we have a stock market collapse, a balanced fund might be expected to weather the storm a little better.





> f I were to do this this Fortis would be my only holding so it may be better to pick 3-4 companies in different sectors than dumping all of the 50k into Forits. Opinions are welcome of course.


yes, exactly. The last thing a refugee from a balanced fund should choose is a one-man band. This refugee is really only moving away from a quality fund because he feels disappointed by a non-performing market environment. He's not moving away because the quality of the fund has deteriorated.

choosing a diversified small group of individual stocks is a labour. You should know the drill after reading so much in cmf forum, you'd want to pick among banks, telcos, perhaps an infrastructure candidate at this point in time, perhaps an energy stock if you're willing to accept risk & go out longer than 5 years.

myself, what i would do is definitely keep all of the Mawer balanced fund. I would commit new money - some or all of my 2017 TFSA contribution - to a couple of individual stocks. I'd seek only 2 stocks as the amounts to be invested are small.

given the high prices of most stocks in the principal sectors mentioned above, i'd probably look in the discounted energy sector & also in the still somewhat-discounted infrastructure sector.

.


----------



## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

FTS will be ok
AQN will be ok
Ema will be ok

IMHO

I am never wrong:friendly_wink:


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I disagree. Those are all interest rate sensitive. Spread it across non-correlative sectors. For example, if one wants to be in FTS or EMA, balance that off with an investment in an insurance company (MFC, SLF, IAG, ITC) which will do well in an increasing interest rate environment. Concentration can be euphoric or deadly.


----------



## mordko (Jan 23, 2016)

^+1.


----------



## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

I agree especially if for the short term,as you say balance is everything,,,
For me i am holding for the dividends,as i will retire soon
I sold all my financials a couple of weeks ago before election


----------



## mordko (Jan 23, 2016)

1980z28 said:


> I sold all my financials a couple of weeks ago before election


Unfortunate. 

And no, I don't agree that balance (diversification) no longer matters once you approach retirement. Quite the opposite.


----------



## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

1980z28 said:


> I sold all my financials a couple of weeks ago before election


Actually, the Canadian financial sector has done quite well over the last few weeks.

View attachment 13042


I can't imagine selling my financial sector. The triggered capital gains would be painful.

ltr


----------



## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Had a good gain when I sold

Did not believe that trump would win,and that banks and insurance would trade sideways or drop

I was wrong


----------



## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

1980z28 said:


> Had a good gain when I sold
> 
> Did not believe that trump would win,and that banks and insurance would trade sideways or drop
> 
> I was wrong


Yeah, not as many times as I've been wrong I'm sure.

Sometimes embedded capital gains saves me from making moves that later prove to be godsend.

ltr


----------



## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

like_to_retire said:


> Yeah, not as many times as I've been wrong I'm sure.
> 
> Sometimes embedded capital gains saves me from making moves that later prove to be godsend.
> 
> ltr



when I sold the financial stuff i also leveraged 
Hoping it pays 

so i can pay back the leverage


----------



## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Thanks for the input,will leave as is in the MAWER Balanced.


----------



## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

newfoundlander61 said:


> Thanks for the input,will leave as is in the MAWER Balanced.



good choice and sleep at night investment


----------



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

FTS up nicely last 2 days (up .98 today..yeaaaaa!)
How come? I like to know these things.


----------



## yyz (Aug 11, 2013)

Cause they released their results

https://www.fortisinc.com/news-and-media/news-releases/news-release?id=2140170


----------



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

yyz said:


> Cause they released their results
> 
> https://www.fortisinc.com/news-and-media/news-releases/news-release?id=2140170


TY!


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I think it is only a matter of time for FTS to float back down to potentially sub-$40. It makes very little sense for a company like Fortis to purchase a regulated USD utility with 76 cent loonies. Had they done it with 110 cent loonies, that would have made more sense. Investors are about 30% behind the 8ball right out of the starting gate. If one looks at capital flows over the years, US purchase and/or sale of Canadian assets ebb and flow with currency....as it should be. Buy when the assets are cheap in your home currency.


----------



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> I think it is only a matter of time for FTS to float back down to potentially sub-$40. It makes very little sense for a company like Fortis to purchase a regulated USD utility with 76 cent loonies. Had they done it with 110 cent loonies, that would have made more sense. Investors are about 30% behind the 8ball right out of the starting gate. If one looks at capital flows over the years, US purchase and/or sale of Canadian assets ebb and flow with currency....as it should be. Buy when the assets are cheap in your home currency.


interesting alta.... do you think it would a good idea to unload a few shares now at $42 level(my ACB is pretty low)...and maybe buy back in on a future dip ...?


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

jargey3000 said:


> interesting alta.... do you think it would a good idea to unload a few shares now at $42 level(my ACB is pretty low)...and maybe buy back in on a future dip ...?


I don't believe in 'trades' necessarily -- so am ducking a response. Just pointing out there will be headwinds if the loonie appreciates. Example: If the loonie goes to 83-84 cents, the most recent acquisition will have cost 10% too much AND will not be accretive. OTOH, if the loonie depreciates to sub 70 cents, the CEO will look like a genious. Which way do you think the loonie will go in the medium-long term?

In the last few years, there seems to have been a frenzy (of companies*) buying US assets with depreciated loonies. Just the opposite of what should be done. Where were they when the loonie was above par? One might argue that if the Fortis acquisitions had been done with a NYSE USD secondary offering and US debt, then there is mostly an equivalent offset. Still, there will be headwinds in both asset values and earnings/cash flow when (if) the loonie appreciates. IOW, current results reflect the 'high' USD and share performance could face substantial headwinds.

There have been smart examples. For example, Chartwell REIT had a number of US domiciled assets...which they then sold circa June 2015 (I think) to cash in on the appreciation they gained in those assets due to currency moves.

* The most recent example of 'stupid' is ALA's pending acquisition of a staid old US Northeast utility. WTF were they thinking? They took a perfectly good company with a good business strategy and are proposing to burden it with ??? Unfortunately, I own ALA and will be dumping it when it blips (probably the day regulatory clearance is obtained)


----------



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

Up a loonie today. Woo-Hoo...but, why?


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

jargey3000 said:


> Up a loonie today. Woo-Hoo...but, why?


Maybe because bond yields have been dropping. For a company with a lot of debt, reduced interest payments in the future is a plus.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Because it's a quality company and pretty soon there will be earnings growth through the synergies created by their acquisitions, which I think are at the point where they will be accelerating. This is a great time to be in a stock like this - margins improving, scale improving, earnings growing, and anticipation eventually builds to the next acquisition or growth strategy. Holding steady with my shares. It is within 1% or so of the all time high.


----------



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

doctrine said:


> Because it's a quality company and pretty soon there will be earnings growth through the synergies created by their acquisitions, which I think are at the point where they will be accelerating. This is a great time to be in a stock like this - margins improving, scale improving, earnings growing, and anticipation eventually builds to the next acquisition or growth strategy. Holding steady with my shares. It is within 1% or so of the all time high.


I've owned it forever.......i seem to recall way back in the stone age.... when they split 4-for-1 or something @ around $80???
or am i hallucinating ....again...?


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Fourth consecutive all time closing high for Fortis. Glad I got back in last Nov @ $40.


----------

