# kinaxis too expensive? KXS



## gigimia11 (Jun 5, 2020)

I recently bought kinaxis. however my inexperience and excitement may have caused me to buy it at too high a price. $173. have I made a mistake?


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## Topo (Aug 31, 2019)

It closed today at 172.49, losing a bit more than 1% since yesterday. You have a paper loss of less than 0.5%.

It will help if you expand on what concerns you and how you reached the conclusion to buy KXS.


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## gigimia11 (Jun 5, 2020)

my concerns are that at $172 kinaxis may have peaked?

I have read many positive comments from the motley fool and I feel that supply chain software could be the future...
hence my purchase of the stock


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## Topo (Aug 31, 2019)

gigimia11 said:


> my concerns are that at $172 kinaxis may have peaked?
> 
> I have read many positive comments from the motley fool and I feel that supply chain software could be the future...
> hence my purchase of the stock


It is really difficult to predict stock prices in the short term or long term. The peaks and troughs can only be known in retrospect. 

I would not put a lot of weight on opinions of the Motley Fool or other analysts. You need to do your own research and reach conclusions that give you the conviction to stick with your picks through thick and thin. 

If you invest in a couch potato type of portfolio, you will likely have a higher rate of success than trying to find the proverbial needle in the haystack.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Shouldn't you ask these questions before you buy the stock? What is it with people saying "I just bought 'X', was that a good idea? What am I doing?"


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

What's with KXS? Is that swing traders playing KXS for the whole month of May? I mean, it did 5 times a roller-coaster ride inside the 160-180 range. Anyone riding it could have made an easy 20% during the month of May. Anyways, I'm not a swing trader, I invested in KXS for the long term, but there's really a pattern there and I don't know how long it will last neither why it's behaving like that.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I recently did my annual review of my growth stock picks. I considered KXS but rejected it (for a variety of reasons).

Instead, in tech, I hold CSU and DSG.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Good choices, in my opinion. I have a big position on CSU and I'm planning on buying DSG also. I guess if I had been in the stock market for the last decade, there's no doubt I would already have DSG in my portfolio. It's in my list of top picks.

I'm happy with the 45% open P&L on my KXS position that I bought this year and I plan on holding for the long term, but if it starts acting weirdly, I won't hesitate to sell it and move that money to DSG. Meanwhile, I'll watch closely the earnings reports. I find its recent run up a bit too fast.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

KXS took a huge drop recently. It was trying 220 and now it's back to 175.

KXS is still at +70% YTD though.

I bought it this year at an average cost around 127 so I'm still pretty happy.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Ouch. Bad earnings and currently dropping -18%. That's sad because I like the company. I'll hold, but I'll watch this one more closely now.

In hindsight, KXS has been a rollercoaster. My position soared to over +70%, then there has been swing trades at the top, then a drop and now a huge drop, so now I'm only at +5% P&L, which is horrible performance.

Funny timing : one of my microcaps had very great earnings and is currently soaring +30%, so it's hedging my KXS loss.


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## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

I am in recently and things have pulled back, but I have not contemplated any changes, because a lot of my recent buys have slide as the market has gone down/sideways a bit.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Kinaxis EBITDA was $54M this past year, down 7% from the prior year. At $3.6B market cap, it trades at 66 times EBITDA. At its peak, it was trading at nearly 100 times EBITDA. For a company with decreasing EBITDA. I am a value investor and I just can't get my head around this level. In the short term, these nosebleed multiple stocks have been getting killed, but that could always change.


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