# Aphria Vs TMX and what to do about it.



## dodgedude (Oct 14, 2017)

Rookie investor here, 
I have holdings with APH, ACB, WEED, and CBW. Which I have done quite well with.

Please spare me the "its volatile" "going to be bumpy" "bad place for a first time investment" I get it, and I am OK with that risk. Its my first Trading portfolio, Not my only investment. 

Im having a hard time trying to decide the consequences of staying with Aphria. I have faith in the company. The buisness, and the future. However I am unsure of De-Listing on the TSX. 
What could I expect to happen if they landed on the CSE? There are plenty of sucessful companies there, But how will the share price react?

Heres where Im at in my planning, Long term Blue chip companies are a much different beast than this Growth trading strategy.

Option 1, Hold my position 100% and capitalize on a major down turn. I can stomach a 75% drop during a transfer, But I fear I would be missing out on opportunity to buy more shares with existing investment capital. This would protect my current position if everything turns out OK with the TSX and the stocks continue on their long, bumpy road to next July and beyond.

Option 2, Sell 50% of my position. Put that capital into a different company for the time being and try to make some gains. This would protect a partial position on Aphria in case of good near term performance, while giving me option to capitalize on a major drop in the near future. And limiting my loss if the stock jumped higher in the near term.

Option 3, Sell out of Aphria until further notice. Wait for Clarity from the TMX and Aphria on the guidelines. See where the company goes with these developments and how the De-listing (if it even happens) treats the price. Put that capital into a different MJ company.

My gut tells me to Hold until further notice. But I dont want to make a bad decision based on a rookie instinct. 

Be brutal and honest with me. Just spare me the "MJ stocks are risky buisness" talk. Im OK with the risk. Just looking for experienced insight.


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## dodgedude (Oct 14, 2017)

No Bites? I didnt think so.

Ok hows this,
Aphria owns 37% of an American Cannabis company Liberty Health Sciences.
As far as I can tell, they are two Seperate companies, One just owns a large share of the other. 
I cant see how that would be against the law. If Aphria is not actively engaged in sales/distribution/growing in the US, then they arent technically breaking any laws...right?

Ive been digging and digging and digging, I can not find ANY reason for the TMX to issue such a memo. I cant find any factors, US press releases, White house memos or the like threatening Canada or the Candian exchanges for listing these companies.

I really hope Aphria issues a statment to shareholders sooner than later. like, Today would be good. But Im sure they are busy figuring things out aswell.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I think you'll find most here would rather buy the tobacco companies that will eventually make the money off of selling pot. Speculation on small caps with no earnings have been done to death since the 80's. ( My youngest boy owns about 50k of Att.cn and will undoubtedly to be looking to move into my basement after that turns south on him..lucky for me I no longer own a basement lol)


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

dodgedude said:


> ... I really hope Aphria issues a statment to shareholders sooner than later. like, Today would be good. But Im sure they are busy figuring things out aswell.


They did comment yesterday: https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6426401222478579&qm_symbol=APH


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

If there is any doubt, why not just get out of the marijuana companies most at risk? Do you really think Aphria will outperform WEED by that much that it is worth holding if it might drop 50%? Delisting will be a huge blow because most investors will *not* hold it if it transitions to the CSE. And they can all just jump into another Canadian marijuana stock for the exposure. Unless you are being rewarded for holding it based on relative valuation, but my gut tells me Aphria is not that undervalued compared to its peers. 

In my experience, both regulatory and accounting issues are red flags to get out first and ask questions later. I would not touch any company that might be delisted. Remember, this can affect business, because it restricts their access to capital which can easily wipe out their marketed advantage in cost. If it turns out to be okay though, and it sounds like you have other exposure to maintain gains if the sector takes off. Managing downside risk is an important part of investing or trading. And if the stock is hit, like you say you can pick up more shares on sale.


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

^+1 Sage advice.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

This December 11 article reports that Aphria is reducing its exposure to medical cannabis in the US
https://www.bnn.ca/aphria-looks-to-cut-down-u-s-exposure-amid-tsx-delisting-review-1.941014



> "We are trying to endeavour as best as possible, as expeditiously as possible, to divest from Aphria any direct involvement in any medical cannabis that we have in the U.S.," Neufeld said in an interview.


Just a few days before that (December 8), Aphria was quietly *added* to the TSX Composite Index. For example XIC now holds nearly $4 million of APH stock.
http://www.newswire.ca/news-release...-to-the-sptsx-canadian-indices-662878003.html

I hold a small APH position in my lowdiv portfolio.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Playing with house money is way more fun. Take your capital off table.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

An American buyer is trying to take over Aphria. Up 23% after hours.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Source BNN:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/aphria-in-takeover-crosshairs-as-green-growth-plans-2-8b-bid-1.1188464


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

If I owned APHA I would sell into any pop. Takeovers of larger companies from smaller companies (Take-unders?) do not typically have as good as an outcome as most mergers and acquisitions, they are generally the worst. There are exceptions, but fortunately in this space you have options to put your receipts in other cannabis companies if you want to maintain exposure.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

APHA up 40% today. A single day move! Still below where it was a year ago, though.


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## Mulak (Feb 7, 2017)

james4beach said:


> APHA up 40% today. A single day move! Still below where it was a year ago, though.


do you think it sell going to go up?


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