# Tracking My Progress



## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

Just joined this forum the other day and thought I would create a log about my investments in one of my portfolios.

I'm looking to build for the long-term. My risk tolerance is quite high as I do not need the money anytime soon (young, no debt, and have a job) so some of my plays will perhaps be quite volatile or in specific sectors where sentiment is very low and I am considering it a long-term play. I sometimes will enter into short-term plays that I believe can provide a quick return. 

That being said, I look for companies that also have a sustainable dividend yield to provide some return when I wait for the pick to play out.

I'm hoping that I can receive comments regarding my picks throughout this time from members of the forum.

I'll do a little blurb if I have the time on each pick and my reasoning for selling any stock. 

At the end of the year if I manage to stay dedicated and keep updating this thread I will probably post a detailed excel with my holdings and ROI for the year. 

Here we go!


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

Picks from last week:

ARE- Got in at: $11.47 - In the construction industry with a MC of $650m and has begun to initiate a new plan to move away from lower margin projects into higher margin ones. As a result they shut down their Seattle operations, which were one of their lowest margin businesses. Company has record backlog numbers and has a lot of great opportunities going forward with all of the aging infrastructure and new projects. A short-term catalyst for this company is the selling of their interest in the Quito Airport. Could receive anywhere from $3.50-$4.50 (looking at the higher-end due to FX). Company has a pristine balance sheet and is fcf positive, which is a major fundamental I look at in a company. Dividend of 3.1% and a P/E of a bit below 20. Large decline in share price was due to speculation over the impact the oil price decline would have on projects. Beta of 0.97. 

GLN- Got in at: $24.75 - Quite simple here. BCE has offered to buy for $26.5 in C/S. Either can choose $26.5 in cash or .4974 BCE shares ($27.83 value as of Feb. 20). Just needs competition bureau approval, which I believe will be approved since the sale will not impact how GLN does business (they have stated they will continue to offer competitors products). BCE has stated it should close by late 1st quarter - mid 2nd quarter. If took the cash vs. stock it would be a 7% return, which annualized would be about 21%. Company had strong fundamentals pre-acquisition announcement and BCE has entered into an agreement with Rogers to buy 50% of GLN as they were also interested in the company. This will prevent BCE from backing out for any reason as they know Rogers is also very interested. 

BBD.PR.C - Got in at: $16.93 - Yes, I agree with everyone else about how bad this company has performed lately. That being said, I do see a lot of value in these cumulative preferred shares although I wouldn't enter into a position in the common shares due to too much perceived risk imo. Yielding 9.3% when I bought in and the price will be quite stable unless major risks to the solvency of the company. With the company increasing the equity offering from $750M to almost $1B this provided further incentive for me to enter into this position on Friday. The CSeries project will eventually get off the ground and I believe it will be successful (once they show progress they should receive more orders). The Company will most likely have to raise another $1B+ via debt to fund capex in 2015 and CSeries initial production.

BNK - Got in at: $3.15 - Smaller position due to already being a bit overweight in this sector but if oil prices drop back down to around $45 I may have to add a bit more. Oil company that operates over in Albania (a few geopolitical concerns). The Company like all others has been hit hard by the oil price collapse. Strong balance sheet with no debt. $224M in unused credit facilities, which will more than cover any capex for the year (company believes CFO and current cash on hand will cover 2015 capex). Positive FCF, which is rare for O&G company. No dividend, which in this environment I am not opposed to. Doubt management team is interested in expanding away from their core assets in Albania but with all that room on the balance sheet it would definitely be accretive to do some acquisitions (perhaps even some plays in Albania). Management has done a great job of continually increasing production, although as expected this year will not see the continued production as they reduce their rig count and slash their capex spending. 

Those are all of my most recent additions (in the past 2 weeks).

I did sell WEF at $2.65 (bought in at $2.30 about 10 months ago) for a nice capital return of 15% (total return around 17%). Weak demand out of China/Japan, which accounts for 30-40% of revenues scared me off and since the average lumber price was below where it was for the 4Q last year I didn't want to be around for the earnings report this past week. Turns out it was a good call as they didn't meet expectations and had a rather negative outlook going forward (lumber prices have also continued to go down). Summer is usually a period of weakness for lumber companies (last year WEF dropped over 10% from $2.30 during the summer on no news) and I believe that will continue again this year. I really like the company (although some peers are also attractive) and I hope to buy back in later in the summer on a dip. It's currently at $2.37


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

May be a nice opportunity in the upcoming weeks to buy into some Canadian banks. The earnings may be below expectations, just like US banks. If I entered it would probably be through an ETF.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

GoLong said:


> BNK - Got in at: $3.15 - Smaller position due to already being a bit overweight in this sector but if oil prices drop back down to around $45 I may have to add a bit more. Oil company that operates over in Albania (a few geopolitical concerns). The Company like all others has been hit hard by the oil price collapse. Strong balance sheet with no debt. $224M in unused credit facilities, which will more than cover any capex for the year (company believes CFO and current cash on hand will cover 2015 capex). Positive FCF, which is rare for O&G company. No dividend, which in this environment I am not opposed to. Doubt management team is interested in expanding away from their core assets in Albania but with all that room on the balance sheet it would definitely be accretive to do some acquisitions (perhaps even some plays in Albania). Management has done a great job of continually increasing production, although as expected this year will not see the continued production as they reduce their rig count and slash their capex spending.


I like BNK, I know the company well. Have visited their facilities in Albania and office in Calgary. I spent a month in Albania working with them on a project. It's a huge resource. Very challenging, but also huge potential. They are doing everything right. I think the geopol issue is a bit overblown. They have a good relationship with the govt and bring in a lot of foreign money. It's a win win. That said, I think that would be a longer term play. They'll probably be invisible until oil pierces 70 or 75 again.


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

nobleea said:


> I like BNK, I know the company well. Have visited their facilities in Albania and office in Calgary. I spent a month in Albania working with them on a project. It's a huge resource. Very challenging, but also huge potential. They are doing everything right. I think the geopol issue is a bit overblown. They have a good relationship with the govt and bring in a lot of foreign money. It's a win win. That said, I think that would be a longer term play. They'll probably be invisible until oil pierces 70 or 75 again.


Great, thanks for that insight. Completely agree. I think in the long-run they'll be a great play but I'm not holding my breath for a quick 20% jump anytime soon. Few years as global supply decreases and prices start to rebound.


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## GOB (Feb 15, 2011)

Great analyses. I'm in a similar position as you - looking to build up a solid dividend income stream, so I will paying close attention to this thread.


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

GOB said:


> Great analyses. I'm in a similar position as you - looking to build up a solid dividend income stream, so I will paying close attention to this thread.


Great to hear GOB. I've subbed to your thread and it was actually what gave me the idea to create one as a way of tracking my performance and looking back at my reasoning for entering into/out of a stock (as well as the more detailed write-ups I do personally). Trying to use options more to help with risk management so your thread will be an interesting way to see how you do that. Only issue is right now I'm overweight in Canadian equities and I don't exactly want to be transferring over CAD into USD for 80 cents on the dollar. As I'm sure you know, there's very little liquidity in CA options markets so the spreads are quite large and there aren't many that offer options out into 2016-2017 (only about 8 large-cap oil companies had any out into '17).


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## GOB (Feb 15, 2011)

Looks like the banks are going back up for now...what are your thoughts?


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

GOB said:


> Looks like the banks are going back up for now...what are your thoughts?


Hey GOB, they surprised me with the strong earnings to be honest. That being said, I'm still not comfortable buying them with the losses that they may sustain from oil and as well the reduced revenues they will generate from that sector, which of course is quite material for the Cdn banks. I'm going to hold off for now but will continue to track them.


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

Bought back into WEF. Bit of history:

Bought WEF back in around March of last year @2.30 

Really like the company. Continue to grow revenues at a solid pace and like the macro environment with recovering housing (there's a bit of a lag effect). 

Sold out @2.65 a few weeks back for a nice capital return of about 15% and total return of around a 19% annualized total return (includes dividends). Expected earnings to be a bit poor given average realized lumber prices being below last years and weak demand coming from China (mills had to be shut down due to excessive backlog and not much demand). FX would be a tailwind and a bigger one in this next quarter but I didn't think it would offset those prices.

Anyways, I bought back in now @2.18. Of course with hindsight I can see I got in a bit early and probably shouldn't have gone against the trend (downward). I plan to sell it fairly soon (within 3 months) for hopefully a small return and then buy back in later on in the summer, which usually sees selling pressure for this stock in the past. 

There's also a micro-cap company that I will be doing a lot of work on this weekend. In a bit of a hurry as there will perhaps be a few major events during next week that send it up a fair amount so if I think it's a company with a strong future I don't want to get in late lol.

Also some preferreds that I am really interested in, yielding an amazing 9.5% (similar to BBD but about half as risky IMO). Will keep an eye out on it but low volume makes it a bit hard (even though I am a relatively small player) due to the wide spreads that occasionally occur with those types of shares.


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## GOB (Feb 15, 2011)

Looking forward to your next preferred picks, as I have no experience on how to research and find good ones. Great call on BBD.


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

Update:

Aecon (ARE) reported some below average earnings today. Revenues and EPS missed estimates. One thing I don't think people appreciated enough was that backlog continued to rise and is up 48% YoY to over $2.6b and this doesn't include recurring revenue streams. Company's margins also continue to improve nicely, which is part of their overall goal of moving away from low-margin businesses. As well, the dividend was increased to $.10/quarter for a yield of about 3.7% currently. 

July 17, 2015 $9 calls - Bought some calls at under 3% premium to the spot price when I bought it (2.42% premium). Believe it will rebound over the next few weeks as analysts continue to reiterate it as a buy. I chose July rather than the earlier March or April calls as the sale of the Quito Airport is a potential catalyst (especially given FX) and I want to know that I'll still be able to hold the options when that happens (deal should be done before start of 2H). Edited on 4/6/15 (just realized I accidentally said $10 calls when it was actually $9 calls that I purchased.)


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

Forgot to update this last week:

Purchased a bit of CXV (management was behind PHM) - I got in at $0.335. This is one I just put a small amount in to given the risk of it. micro-cap company ($40m). In a fragmented market (rehab facilities) in the US. Plan to grow through acquisition and then renovating them to increase size and profitability. I wouldn't normally go into a company like this that is a lot of hype and not many fundamentals backing it but they are one of the few start-ups that actually has revenues already. With a few more acquisitions (they hope for 4 in 2015) the valuation on it will be much higher. A large number of these rehab facilities in the US are "mom and pop" stores, which I believe will lead to CXV being able to acquire these homes for relatively low multiples compared to what they deserve (if offered $15-20m for a big rehab facility a family-run home will just see the $$ figure not the multiple like a large company sees).


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I look forward to your picks and rationales!


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

My Own Advisor said:


> I look forward to your picks and rationales!


Thanks! If you have any suggestions for ones to look into feel free to post them here, always love hearing from others


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

Update:

CXV - Had a bit of a run this week (up a bit over 16% from when I bought it), largely due to the management team at PHM (also involved with CXV) stating they had completed an acquisition. This built some hype about when a release for CXV would come in regards to an acquisition that should be completed shortly. I expect it to drop a bit on Monday if there's no news today or over the weekend. Long-term hold though so not phased by the volatility.

ARE - Has rebounded nicely since the earnings report as public begins to realize that the earnings despite not being the best for the quarter were actually positive going forward (different than companies like BDT that expect poor earnings in 2015). I'm now up about 20% on the call options and down a bit over 3% on the stock (got in at about $11.47). If it drops for whatever reason down to $10.50 or below then I will probably pick up a few more shares.

Depending on how the market opens today I may be back with another addition to the portfolio. Company has sold off (with the entire sector) and is trading down over 20% from it's peak near the middle of February. Also a company I'm still looking in to for their preferreds but it's low volume and barely moves day-to-day so I'm not in a rush to get into that one (just paid div. too so would be better to wait a bit).


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

Purchase:

IFP - Purchased this on Friday at around $18.15. Has fallen over 20% since its peak of around $23.25. Lumber prices have continued to fall but have rebounded in the past week and I believe they have reached a low (impacted by poor housing starts due to winter conditions). I already own WEF, which is a lumber company too but most of their revenues come from Asia whereas IFP's come from the US. This gives me exposure to two different markets. Multiple wise, IFP trades at about 28x PE compared to WEF of about 11x. At first glance IFP may look expensive, however, it has a FCF yield of over 7%, which I put a larger weight on and it is growing both topline (20%+) and earnings at a much faster pace (PEG ratio is below 1.5) than the other lumber co's, which justifies the higher multiple. It has a great balance sheet and will continue to grow through M&A as well as organically. If it drops to $17 (hit $17.30 last week) then I will probably add to it. I will sell off a portion of it once it rebounds and will hold some for the long-term. It doesn't pay a dividend as it is still focused on growth.


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

Update:

CXV - Announced a few acquisitions today, which is what the market has been waiting for. Some of it may already be priced in but I still expect a bit of a pop in the share price today. They also commented on the pipeline of acquisition opportunities and it looks like they have a LARGE group of potential targets. $7.5m bought deal financing to help pay for some of it. I would hope they could leverage the cash flows they're now receiving from their facilities as well as the underlying properties to get debt financing rather than equity offerings but that may not occur for another few acquisitions. 

GLN - Growing a bit frustrated with this M&A play, despite knowing that it would take some times to be completed. Management has not given any information on how the acquisition by BCE is going. In their most recent annual filings, they said the deal is still pending (of course) and is contingent on a few conditions that have not been completed yet. This caught me a bit off-guard and there was no mention of what those conditions were. I'm hoping it is just the condition that the competition bureau approves the deal.


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

SOLD:

GLN - Sold at $25.6 on Monday. Resulted in a small gain of around 3.4% which I believe is decent given the little risk that was associated with the play. That was a large position in my portfolio so I am flush with cash at the moment. Can expect a few trades coming soon.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

More of a blue-chip guy myself. I like most of the holdings, and intend to own most of the holdings, in ETFs like XIU and XDV. 

Other than some U.S. stocks I will index invest everything else.


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

My Own Advisor said:


> More of a blue-chip guy myself. I like most of the holdings, and intend to own most of the holdings, in ETFs like XIU and XDV.
> 
> Other than some U.S. stocks I will index invest everything else.


Nice, definitely a good strategy for some! 

I'm in a position where I can go for growth stocks.

I also love doing the DD behind them as well


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

BUY:

CXV - Added to my CXV position. Pretty much doubled-down. ACB moves to about 48 cents. Hoping to flip the shares I just purchased in the short-term to take advantage of the large drop. Usually don't trade like this but I have confidence in the company so if it doesn't work out for a quick flip then I will be fine holding them longer.


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

BUY:

Had only a little exposure to the healthcare segment (CXV) so have added a few more high-growth names.


NHC - Bought at $7.56 yesterday. Really like this name. High-growth. Operations out in the US, specifically TX. Ambulatory and surgical clinics. Fwd. PE of only 13x. Starting to get access to better funding (lower and more readily available). 

PHM - Bought in this morning at $1.68. Great company. Same management as CXV and is a roll-up strategy. Company is hoping to exit 2015 with run rate revenues of $175m. Unlike most high-growth healthcare names it actually trades on decent fundamentals (given its growth profile)


Sorry that don't have the time to do a large write-up. Will try and post more updates on the company's I own rather than just buy/sell posts (will have more time over the next few months to do that).


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

UPDATE: 

NHC - Released solid results earlier today, which were in-line with guidance. Catalyst coming up is in the fall when they release 2016 guidance which could be higher than expectations. Continue to really like this company. Up about 20% on it currently. Still believe on a fwd. basis it is incredibly undervalued, especially for its growth platform.

ARE - Doing very well on this one. Just announced great results and people are beginning to realize how it was very oversold during the oil plunge. I'm now up about 140% on the options that I purchased and 20% on the shares. Still waiting on the Quito sale, which will be a further catalyst. 

WEF & IFP - Market continues to be negative on these lumber companies. Both had decent results and IFP just recently acquired another sawmill. The weakness in lumber prices has hurt them and I believe prices continue to struggle given uncertainty going forward regarding lumber prices.


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## GoLong (Feb 21, 2015)

SOLD:

ARE Options - Unfortunately with everything that's been happening in the markets recently with the Greece debt crisis and oil dropping back to near $50, these call options got hit a bit before I exited. I made a nice profit of 37.5% on them however. 

UPDATE:

PHM - Just announced a NCIB today and management change. I think it's great news and so does the market. Up over 5% today. Company had strong results and the NCIB will act to limit any downside. Going forward they still have a few LOI's to finalize, which will be seen positively by the market. Listing on NASDAQ and the TSX rather than the TSXV will only further increase the attention given towards PHM.


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