# Time to cash out yet?



## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

My unlce was telling me yesterday that he is slowing selling and getting into a strong cash holding. Slowly selling and taking the profits and holding onto cash. 

This morning I am driving in and hearing about the pending currency wars...

Anyone moving to cash?


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Holding my distribution paying REITs , sold my speculative stocks this morning , KLH and PDN (up 80% and 60% respectively) and am keeping the proceeds in cash for now.

I may get back in if they dip enough , otherwise I am happy to keep profit and secure in knowing I have some cash on the side.

Will invest the profits in REITs , and re-deploy the original capital if I see another bargain.

Equities have had quite a run lately , maybe too much , it's a little scary.

Lots of uncertainty out there right now.


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

DavidJD said:


> My unlce was telling me yesterday that he is slowing selling and getting into a strong cash holding. Slowly selling and taking the profits and holding onto cash.
> 
> This morning I am driving in and hearing about the pending currency wars...
> 
> Anyone moving to cash?


All currency wars are going to do is create inflation. In that environment, cash will be about the worst investment possible. Gold would be better, any other commodity next, and stocks that create real goods and services would be a 3rd bet.

All this is macro economic which means that most likely some other scenerio that we have not foreseen will play out and all of us will get the shaft. Makes you really look forward to getting up in the morning! lol.


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

I was just watching CBC News midday and there is lots of minor bad news so far today. Seems Ireland is in bad shape after spending billions bailing out banks. They were also talking about China's possible efforts to slow down their economy, not good news coming out of the G20. TSX down 245 points and gold down $40 an ounce.

I personally like the idea of holding onto cash, but as eagle said above, if it gets devalued then that may not be good. Only response I have is that CDN currency holdings are certainly not as risky as some of the other foreign currencies. Just my opinion though, what do I know.

We can theorize all we want but at the end of the day we don't really have a lot of control or foresight into future happenings. This is what they mean when they talk about stock market risk.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

My suggestion is to not listen too closely to the news cycle. It's amazing how distorted a view of events it can give you. It's entertainment, but it's not really information.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

is it over allready ?

sheesh ... i thought mr. bernanke was going to make us all rich ?!


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

Well today would have been a good day for me to take profits...

Oh well.

About gold as a safe haven vs. currency. I always believed that I would want to get in to commodities if I had enough cash and was timed well enough. I know a guy who sells huge ships full of...peas. Makes a fortune and has never seen a pea, or a ship for that matter. He says, oil or metals can increase out put. Their stability is based on politics (and sure, some weather-related events) but food is not going to be done without. People will eat peas (or animals-whatever they are for) and if weather makes the yield (harvest) less, the price goes up. Can't eat gold...


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Much needed correction is hopefully underway here so you can finally add or buy. I don't know for sure but I think a much bigger correction is more likely to take place later in the first quarter of 2011 then now.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Ah, there is nothing like a bad day or week to bring all of the market timers out of the woodwork.

As for we 'buy-and-holders', we just ride the rollercoaster through all of the ups and downs and hope that we end up landing on our feet!!!


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## osc (Oct 17, 2009)

What correction? We are 2% off the 2 year high. I don't see this developing into a real correction, like the May one, but I won't mind if I'm wrong. Correction = opportunity.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Much needed correction is hopefully underway here so you can finally add or buy. I don't know for sure but I think a much bigger correction is more likely to take place later in the first quarter of 2011 then now.


Agreed. I hadn't been buying for a couple of months...most prices seemed too high as the market was rising. Patiently waiting for a better time/prices.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Some of the pundits say that the reduced Cisco outlook is a bellweather of the US market.

Soft set-top box outlook is bad for consumer spending.

Weak basic growth is bad for business spending. Although it is still a healthy growth forecast! Probably indicates how nervous investors are!


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

I read were Cisco's problems, were the result of that company having a large portion of their sales in the "public sector" worldwide.

That is, they rely on goverments around the world for much of their sales, and as all govt's , it seems, are in debt up to their eyeballs, all of them will have to lower spending next few years, meaning Cisco revs will drop.

I was lucky enough to buy INTEL a few months ago, and yesterday, they announced a 15% raise in their dividend starting in jan 2011, and the stock made a nice move up yesterday, when the overall markets were tanking.
Blind luck never hurts.

As for selling and getting out, there are two trains of thought here.

I have never really belived in "market timing"....no one has ever shown an ability to do that correctly over any time frame.

As well, "selling" produces a capital event, so taxes may be due on gains, leaving less capital to work with when your "timing model" says you should buy back in. This, of course is not a problem in RRSP, RRIF, RESP, or TFSA.

Lastly, the major problem is that cash basically earns very little now....which is exactly what Bernacke and the FED want, trying to push investors further along the risk curve.

I have too much cash already, and as bonds and bond funds pay little, and , in my opinion , are way overpriced, which will lead to losses down the road if ANY sniff of inflation rears its ugly head.....Id rather hold onto my income producing equities, and watch those paymenst land in my accounts every month, or quarter.

In fact it may very well be LESS risky over the next few years to hold solid dividend stocks, that produce consistent earnings, rather than cash or bonds.

Of cousre thats just another in the long list of ideas out here in the great land of the Capital Markets, and its worth just about what you paid to read it.

Good luck to all


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

isn't the best idea to just stay the course but have cash on hand to jump in if there is a downturn ... ?


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## patmanz (Jul 26, 2010)

fatcat said:


> isn't the best idea to just stay the course but have cash on hand to jump in if there is a downturn ... ?


*In my opinion, yes. Tactical asset allocation is integral part of any viable long-term investment strategy.*

The majority of DIY folks just repeat the "dont try to time the market" mantra without fully understanding all the implication of a bad timing.

Here is a rather small article on the subject:

http://www.evansonasset.com/index.cfm?Page=13

Here is the conclusion, for discussion:



> ONCLUSION: Do not buy the "Stocks for the Long Run" hypothesis uncritically. It is based upon the presentation of very long-term annualized returns data (averaged to yearly returns arithmatically or geometrically), and may not reflect what a real investor will experience in the market over reasonable investment time frames in the future. It most definitely underemphasizes the pain and disappointing returns stock investors may suffer if they happen to enter the market at the wrong time. Wall Street and the money management industry have a vested interest in moving investors into stocks because they get paid more for buying and managing stock portfolios than for bond portfolios or cash. Wise investors should look at both sides of the risk/return picture and adjust their equity/fixed ratios accordingly.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

In that wonderful year which was 2008, as I watched equity investments plummet around the world, I was comforted by the fact that 40 percent of my portfolio was it bonds which cushioned the fall for me.

Now, as 2011 fast approaches, and the spectre of rising interest rates and hyper inflation rear their ugly heads, I am not so comforted by my 60/40 equities to bonds asset allocation.

In some ways, I am more concerned now than at any time in 2008 but my plan is to continue to stay the course and hope for the best.

If things don't work out, I will apply for a greeter's job at Walmart.


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## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

Volatility is increasing in the market now, I'd like to see where we're going from here before putting more cash to work. Perhaps we'll be range bound and I can make some money off of that, or it'll keep going up from here. 

Capitals gains for bonds now will be slim and yields are low. Very unattractive. I'd rather be in all cash than some of the other no risk alternatives. At least I'll be able to easily jump into the market or spend it on other things such as real estate easily. When I saw the Canada savings bonds advertised at the bank, I just laughed.


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

I consider myself a "buy and hold" investor......but not a "blind" investor.

More a "buy and watch" investor.

It is not rocket science to realize that 'when' you buy is important....ask anybody who bought the market back in 2000 when the S&P was trading at a P/E of over 36!!

Many of the tech stocks were selling at P/E's of over 100! and higher,
many had NO earnings, with potential earnings slim to none.
Everyone was hoping to find the next Dell, etc., or if not, find a bigger fool to sell out to, than the fool they were, when buying.
There are plenty of fools,,,but alas, they too run out.

In any case there are always stocks that sell at fairly good valuations, using p/e, p/cf, historical div yield, d/e, 10 yr roe, and any number of other metrics.

Im not Warren Buffet, so I dont have his ability to see whach buys are better than others.

Personally, I like stocks with a good yield, low payout ratio, reasonable debt, good history of div increases, good roe, and a 10 yr record of stockholder equity increases.

There were plenty of these solid blue chippers in late 2008, and into 2009.
A "buy and hold" investor would have done very well loading up then, but it required much strength to buy into that abyss back then.

The pickings are fewer now,,but they are out there.
I have been patiently waiting for more to appear as prices drop a bit, and am confident that buying these types of stocks at reasonable prices will reward a buy and hold approach, but as always, only time will tell.

By the way , it seems much harder to find these types of companies here in Canada, than in the US and the rest of the world!!

Any ideas from you guys, and girls, at what Canadian stocks might qualify for further research under these guidelines??

I am looking at BCE at the moment.

thanks


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Here are some top picks from guests on BNN MarketCall and MarketCall Tonight that you may want to do some of your own 'due diligence' on:

http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Market-Call.aspx

http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Market-Call-Tonight.aspx


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Sorry, but what 'spectre of hyperinflation'? Hyperinflation is 40% a month. We're currently clocking in at between 0.1 and 0.2% per month.


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

I feel confident here will be inflation in the next few years....but certainly not hyperinflation.

thing is though, it doesn't take much inflation and increase in interest rates to hurt bond holdings.

Thats why I have said on this board that it may be less risky going forward to own solid blue chip div stocks with good valuations and prospects.

Only problem is choosing which of these to buy!


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

BELGUY:

thanks for those links to BNN top picks,

I'm not always crazy about what these guys have to say.....but they are worth looking at to get an idea what people like.

Some posters have mentioned that they may be trying to "pump" their own holdings.

I do always like to hear what Norman Levine has to say. hes a gentleman, and always seems sincere...never trying to show he knows everything..and has actually admitted he doesn't.
I like that kind of candor.

As well I find it difficult to really get solid info on Canadian companies when doeing my due diligence. When stocks are interlisted on the US exchanges...like BCE, for instance....its so much easier to get fundamental info on them, than it is in Canada.

Its a problem for me...sometimes when buying canadian shares, I feel as though i'm going in half informed!!

thanks for the thoughts though/


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

warp said:


> I feel confident here will be inflation in the next few years....but certainly not hyperinflation.
> 
> thing is though, it doesn't take much inflation and increase in interest rates to hurt bond holdings.


Hyperinflation is rare and often doesn't last long.
There have been only half a dozen instances of hyperinflation in the last 25 years or so, and none of them lasted years and years.
It destroys wealth like nothing else and in a diabolical way, dissolves everything and a new system emerges (like in Russia after the hyperinflation following the collapse of communism).

Inflation, on the other hand, is the silent killer.
The worst part about inflation is what it does to retired, and soon-to-be-retiring, folks.
Societies that have issues with retirees imposing a large burden can (and do often) use inflation as a means of reducing that burden.
Think about what may happen to the US even with slightly higher than normal inflation over the next 2 decades.
Retirees receiving social security (and/or state/federal pension) will see their wealth and purchasing power erode.
Same may happen in Canada.

Already happening in the so called emerging economies of India and China.
With food, essential goods, energy and real estate inflation running rampant, retirees with good solid govt. pensions are now facing a hand-to-mouth existence.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

For about as long as I have been in this investment game, there seems to have been one scary scenario after another but none as scary as the financial situation that we are now facing in the years ahead.

That makes it tough for elderly, buy-and-hold investors.

That said, I plan to stay on the rollercoaster  until my last day on earth or until I lose my last dollar investing in the markets--whichever comes first.


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

The buy and hold strategy is all well and good -- until such time as you NEED to cash out. Imagine how jittery the boomers must be feeling these days, nearing retirement in the coming short years and fearing further equity loss and pension uncertainty. Easy for us younger guys to say that buying and holding is the way to go.


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## Sustainable PF (Nov 5, 2010)

the-royal-mail said:


> The buy and hold strategy is all well and good -- until such time as you NEED to cash out. Imagine how jittery the boomers must be feeling these days, nearing retirement in the coming short years and fearing further equity loss and pension uncertainty. Easy for us younger guys to say that buying and holding is the way to go.



Hopefully the buy/hold strategy of younger investors will help maintain some stability to stocks.


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## patmanz (Jul 26, 2010)

Sustainable PF said:


> Hopefully the buy/hold strategy of younger investors will help maintain some stability to stocks.


imho, this have zero impact.

the market is now is majority consisted of computer generated high-frequency trading.


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## ramy98 (Sep 20, 2009)

andrewf said:


> Sorry, but what 'spectre of hyperinflation'? Hyperinflation is 40% a month. We're currently clocking in at between 0.1 and 0.2% per month.


Sorry dude, I personally dont believe the numbers the government and pundits state. If you want to by all means... Obviously we arent near 40% per month but I sure dont believe the figures we are told.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

It's really hard to keep inflation a secret. You know, with prices being publicly available. So if the government was lying about inflation, someone would have noticed and called them on it with sound empirical analysis. Unless it's a giant conspiracy. I hear the price of aluminum foil is skyrocketing.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The younger the investor, and the longer the time line, the easier it is to stay the course.

The older the investor, and the more that he or she is dependent on their portfolios for a quality retirement, the more sensitive you become to the day-to-day news and market trends. It's just harder to close your eyes to the gyrations of the markets. It takes more faith that things will be OK in the end.

In recent years, more and more small investors are dependent on market gains for the quality of their retirement. Not so long ago, fewer people put their hard-earned savings in the market.

As the old adage goes, never put money in the stock market that you can't afford to lose or money that you will need in the next five, ten, or fifteen years.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

> The older the investor, and the more that he or she is dependent on their portfolios for a quality retirement, the more sensitive you become to the day-to-day news and market trends. It's just harder to close your eyes to the gyrations of the markets. It takes more faith that things will be OK in the end.


 which is why money has been steadily moving out of equities for several months and why bernanke is trying to "stimulate" everyone back into the pool ... it's very perverse game that basically screws the conservatives and the savers

the net effect for many will that seniors and (i am just over 60), will be pinching their pennies until they feel there is stability again and this will hold back the recovery

if i was a zillionaire, i would buy billboards all over the usa that said "save up, hold on, don't buy ... screw ben" or something like that

the investment business has become a very crooked game run by insiders and the wealthy for insiders and the wealthy

but what can you do, you have to play if you want return ?

if we have a substantial pullback here, we could see a resurgence of the jitters and that could really put a damper on the recovery


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

HAROLD: you wrote:

Same may happen in Canada.

Already happening in the so called emerging economies of India and China.
With food, essential goods, energy and real estate inflation running rampant, retirees with good solid govt. pensions are now facing a hand-to-mouth existence.[/QUOTE]


I respectfully disagree!.

Last timeI looked people with "good solid govt pensions" are doing pretty well.
First they get way above what anyone gets in the private sector.
Private sector workers are being forced more and more to save their own money for their retirements, as defined pension plans are going the way of the cookoo bird. Only govt workers will get them soon.

Also last time I checked govt pensions are tied to inflation, so us poor regular folk will be supporting govt retirees FOREVER.

I have friends in this situation,,,and they literally LAUGH at me!

Hand to mouth???? I doubt it!! get real.

Are you a govt employee/retiree , by chance?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

warp said:


> I respectfully disagree!.
> 
> Last timeI looked people with "good solid govt pensions" are doing pretty well.
> First they get way above what anyone gets in the private sector.
> ...


Ha, you haven't been reading my posts.
My criticism of these types of gold-plated pensions and benefits is well known.
I think our society as a whole pays heavily for sustaining these benefits for the public sector workers.
What is ironical is that the majority of private sector workers who have none of these benefits are the ones largely supporting this system.

Anyhow, back to the post, I think you mis interpreted it.
I was referring to the developing economies of India and China that are facing this situation.
Food and essential goods inflation in China is killing the middle class and there is unrest among the people.
It has been in the news recently, but has been slowly creeping up for a while.
Indian is in an even worse situation.
Inflation is running rampant at > 15%.
The public sector workers in India and China do not enjoy the gold-plated, inflation indexed pensions like the public sector workers in Canada do (and other European nations like France and UK).

Inflation induced by extravagant fiscal and monetary policy is a nice way for governments to wipe out the demands imposed by aging populations.


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

HAROLD:

I was perplexec by your previous post about govt pensions...but now you show that you were talking about govt pensions in China and India.

Sorry about the confusion, and thanks for the clarification.

I was prplexed precisely because I do remember you writing about these gold plated govt pensions we have here. I remember thinking that you think like me.

And you are right...it has been a time honoured tradition by govt's to cause inflation to pay their bills with inflated dollars.

Right now savers and conservative investors..eg, seniors , are suffering thru this low yield environment. Work for 50 years , pay your taxes, save and do the right thing......get screwed!

There should be a tax deduction for seniors especially , to account for inflation when reporting interest income!


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

BY the way...I am not a senior yet...but with luck will be one in about 10 years!


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I'm not at all certain about how lucky it is to be a senior citizen although I have to constantly remind myself that it is probably better than the alternative. After all is said and done, there is something to be said for being on the right side of the grass!!!

Do China's and India's growing problem with inflation mean that we should second guess holding ETF's that invest in those countries???


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Belguy said:


> Do China's and India's growing problem with inflation mean that we should second guess holding ETF's that invest in those countries???


Their currencies will appreciate - they have to.
There is no other way...this status quo of strong USD, CAD, EUR and cheap YUAN, INR, etc. will change.
It'll change either gradually (desired) or drastically (undesired).
There is a huge imbalance in the world today, perpetuated by the US to a great extent.
This imbalance created cheap materials and jobs abroad and killed the domestic economy in the US.
What we are seeing now is a very painful correction of that imbalance.
Nature and economics has a way of restoring itself.

There are phenomenal growth opportunities in China, India and Brazil (to a lesser extent) but IMHO be prepared for stronger currencies there (esp. Chinese Yuan).


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I have to wonder if rising inflation in the emerging markets coupled with increasing energy and shipping costs might bring some of those exported manufacturing jobs back to North America in the years ahead.

As of now, however, there is little evidence that the exporting of our manufacturing jobs is slowing down--in fact just the contrary seems to be evident so far.

I hope that we don't get into massively moving government jobs overseas or we will be done as a dinner!!!


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Belguy said:


> I have to wonder if rising inflation in the emerging markets coupled with increasing energy and shipping costs might bring some of those exported manufacturing jobs back to North America in the years ahead.


Yes, it will and I believe that's the right thing to do.
You know, these upstarts can solve their problems with one shot - appreciate their currencies.
Of course then they can no longer export cheap, junk goods to the US.
Then they will be forced to build a stronger consumer base within their own countries.
Which usually requires (and leads to) more freedom and democracy.
Oh boy, that's inconvenient.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

There's already jobs that are coming back to North America. Many managers who offshore production don't always include the full costs of moving production. The logistics costs can be quite high, and since lead times are much higher and more variable, larger inventories of products need to be kept here. Any business where innovation or speed to market is key sees production remaining here. For instance, RIM still makes handsets in Waterloo in the same campus as their engineering. Once the bugs are ironed out of the production process, the production moves to cheaper jurisdicitons.


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

warp said:


> I consider myself a "buy and hold" investor......but not a "blind" investor.
> 
> More a "buy and watch" investor.
> 
> ...


BCE :-

1) All time peak price was pre-crisis in 2007/2008, above $40.00, since price is now only at $34.30, ssems like there is still room to go for a phone company.

2) Dividend Payout is on the increase for each of the Common Share, eg, 

In January 15, 2010, payout was $0.405; then on April 15, 2010 and July 15, 2010, the payout was $0.435; finally on October 15, 2010, the payout grew to $0.4575.

The payout for January 2011 remains at the high of $0.4575.

Preferred Shares - same as the above though more constant for some of the series. The payouts for the S Series and the Y Series grew.

3) But at current price - quite high, so the yield is low at 5.2%.

4) Dividend payouts are all Eligible Dividends for DTCs.

With a growing dividend payout, I believe the yield will increase in future, if the price does not grow quick enough.

Other counters I am currently eyeing on are Keyera and Capital Power Income Fund. Just waiting for their prices to dip before going in.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Rox said:


> Other counters I am currently eyeing on are Keyera and Capital Power Income Fund. Just waiting for their prices to dip before going in.


So you _have_ been able to open a Canadian brokerage account and transfer your funds over from US?


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

Keyera is a great stock...but seems to be ahead of itself.

It was on my watch list last year and I never pulled the trigger.( like a dummy)........anyway you cant be right all the time.

Capital Power is in the same boat for me. I get automatic emails from them alerting me to any news etc. I havent bought it either as it also seemes a bit overpriced,,,,

Thats the problem now...when you remember the GREAT prices you could have and should have bought stocks at last year, it becomes harder to pull the trigger at these higher prices.
Of course any buying an investor did do...(and I did make many buys in 2008, 2009)... have done pretty well riding the wave up

I just have that nagging feeling that the TSX is a bit overpriced....and have been waiting for a real pullback that never seems to happen, which might incur that my "nagging feeling" is misplaced.

Normally patience wouldnt be such a problem....the problem these days , is that cash generates very little income...and has a dragging effect on ones overall returns.

Of course having cash is infinitely better, than buying equities, then losing money!

This is Warren Buffet's #1 rule........never lose money
His #2 rule?....look up rule #1

If only it were so easy!!

Ahhhh, for someone to come tell me all the answers!

good luck.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Warp to me it feels like we will continue to go up in the new year as we gamble forward. Notice I said gamble, it is because I do feel a big correction is on the way but probably starting after the RRSP wave and so on has kicked on by.

There is way to many moving parts these days to peg anything down so gamble is the name of the game.


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> So you _have_ been able to open a Canadian brokerage account and transfer your funds over from US?


Harold,... yes, I have,.. I use the Internet to wire the funds over from The US. It's actually very convenient, I don't even need to walk to the bank.


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

warp said:


> Keyera is a great stock...but seems to be ahead of itself.
> 
> It was on my watch list last year and I never pulled the trigger.( like a dummy)........anyway you cant be right all the time.
> 
> ...


..warp,.. thank you. So, Keyera and Capital Power are on your radar too, huh ? They're on the radar of two of the research companies that contribute to G&M too,... couldn't be wrong on these two counters then,..

At current prices, the yield for Keyera and Capital Power (CPA.UN) are 5.20% and 9.81% respectively. Secondly, CPA's dividend is on an uptrend,... if you compare,...

I believed at 9.81% yield, and at an acceptable payout ratio,... we can still go in to CPA. There are rumours prices of electricity are going up soon, this should bode well for CPA. What do you think ?

Keyera - well,.. it's run out too far,...

What you just described about not buying earlier, yeah, I feel like that too at times,... but seasoned investors should not feel so, there is just so much that a person can do, and we don't simply fire away without doing DD, and DD requires time...

There are still gems, just need to look harder and read more fin statements and websites,... I'm lookig at another two :-

1) New Flyer Ind - NFI.UN : need for public transportation vehicles are set to rise soon when people preferred to take public transports instead of drive due to the rising cost of gas,... current yield is 10.59%.

2) Student Transportation - STB : okay, this one has not run-up yet, but looking at her fin statements, they always have negative profit, but the cashflow remains healthy,.. perhaps you can see better,...

Current yield is at a whopping 10.24%.

Cash is the last thing to hold today,... sorry,...


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

dogcom said:


> Warp to me it feels like we will continue to go up in the new year as we gamble forward. Notice I said gamble, it is because I do feel a big correction is on the way but probably starting after the RRSP wave and so on has kicked on by.
> 
> There is way to many moving parts these days to peg anything down so gamble is the name of the game.


DC,... either way, now is the time to start preparing and targetting, don't you think so ? If, as you said, the big dip does appear, then we would be well-prepared to capitalise on the opportunity, rather than to start the DD from then,.. which will cause us to be late again,...


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

hey rox indeed you don't have to walk to your US bank, it's a long trek hiking across all that pacific ocean water, even for someone like you.


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> hey rox indeed you don't have to walk to your US bank, it's a long trek hiking across all that pacific ocean water, even for someone like you.


You are logged-on,.. from Singapore, is it ?? And how would you know where I am ? I saw your postings in the First REIT thread, and you go by the name of Drizzt too,.... 

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=236184&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=550

So looks like you are invested in Singapore too, huh ?

Anyway, why are you always assuming I am here or there, and making insinuations about me ? Something bothering you about me, is it ?

The way you post at the CNA forum is really very different from the way you are posting in this forum,.. your language is different, your tone-of-voice is different,... the level of sarcasm is different too,... why the double personality,... huh ?

Anyway, I am here to learn,... shouldn't be too bothered by someone like you,..


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

By the way, humblepie, or Drizzt, or whatever other names you go by, I am keen to discuss about stocks here, and to prepare for the dip if it should come as suggested by DC, but if you are more keen on talking about my location, please get out of this thread,.

I'm sure other forummers here would appreciate it too,... 

I am being very direct in this, and there are no apologies warranted here,...


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

New Flyer - I agree that in the long term more people will be taking public transport. However in the short term I think we have to remember who buys buses. 

I believe (I am assuming as I have not checked it out) it is usually cities and the financial status of a lot of cities/municipalities is not that great right now. 

Cisco's poor results that were reported lately (allthough completely diff products) were a result of less demand from government customers. 

A potential investor in New Flyer should make sure they spend a bit of time finding out who their largest customers are and what their financial status might be. 

The US/CDN dollar exchange rate might be something to look at as well if most of their customers are US based.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Rox said "DC,... either way, now is the time to start preparing and targetting, don't you think so ? If, as you said, the big dip does appear, then we would be well-prepared to capitalise on the opportunity, rather than to start the DD from then,.. which will cause us to be late again,..."

With the Fed running around printing money out of thin air buying bonds because the US can't afford to pay for its obligations and some Euro zone countries facing the same music doesn't sound good. This also doesn't account for bankrupt US states like 
California and a congress that may not warm up to the Fed money printing. So that can either give us a runaway stock market to the upside or a huge correction or both, so gamble is the way one will invest.

Right now I am still leaning towards gold and cash as the currencies work themselves out. I will play in and out of the stock market as well during oversold and overbought conditions and so on. I like FTS as a stock to buy and sell if I was to pick a stock. I feel the late spring is the most likely time a good correction will start as all the retirement money is finished being put to work. Of course like this past September that may depend on investor sentiment because if we don't get much of a rally in the first quarter and everyone is bearish then we may not get a correction.


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

Rox said:


> ..warp,.. thank you. So, Keyera and Capital Power are on your radar too, huh ? They're on the radar of two of the research companies that contribute to G&M too,... couldn't be wrong on these two counters then,..
> 
> At current prices, the yield for Keyera and Capital Power (CPA.UN) are 5.20% and 9.81% respectively. Secondly, CPA's dividend is on an uptrend,... if you compare,...
> 
> ...


ROX:

thanks for the reply.

I actually own a bit of Student Transportation...I love the yield, but it has in fact run up a bit, like most stocks. I continue to hold it though.

Capital Power is one that looks like a decent buy,,,even at these prices.
They seem to be a good conservative long term hold,,and pay a nice yield.

You are right...cash is the last thing to hold today,,,,but I always have cash holdings to take advantage of buys that develop....and unfortunately for me, ( and others I'm sure), many of my bond holdings are being redeemed early , and this is compounding the problem.

Buying new bonds to replace these is something I will not do at this time so the cash piles up waiting for buying opportunities.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Rox said:


> Harold,... yes, I have,.. I use the Internet to wire the funds over from The US. It's actually very convenient, I don't even need to walk to the bank.


Which brokerage did you open accounts with?
I'm a little surprised that a Canadian brokerage allowed you to open trading accounts without proof of residency and a SIN number.


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## Potato (Apr 3, 2009)

Greyhound86 said:


> New Flyer - I agree that in the long term more people will be taking public transport. However in the short term I think we have to remember who buys buses.
> 
> I believe (I am assuming as I have not checked it out) it is usually cities and the financial status of a lot of cities/municipalities is not that great right now.



I've got a bit in New Flyer as well (after the run-up of course I was wishing I had weighted it higher, but I was timid about it last year). Greyhound86 makes a good point, as this has already happened once to them with a big order of buses from Chicago. It didn't hurt them much in the long run, but because of some financing troubles Chicago had to postpone buses that were already under construction. NFI customizes the buses for each customer, and had some downtime as they re-did the partially complete buses to fill another customer's order. 

I personally think that their backlog is sufficient to get them through a temporary slowdown in new orders from cities, but it is a risk factor.

Also, for those that are unaware, it's a stapled unit structure, so there will be no conversion next year. Approx 2/3 of the distribution counts as interest (i.e., fully taxable).


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

hey rox that distinction between being either non-resident or legally resident really pushes your buttons, doesn't it.

you've only been one short month on this forum & already you're terrified that someone is going to blow your cover.

i'm not insinuating anything. It's black and white. Your scheme depends upon being a legal resident of canada. You are not a legal resident of canada. You are posting from southeast asia. Many people here know which country you are in.

rox we are lawful canadian taxpayers and citizens gathered here to discuss our savings.
in some cases born & bred upon this soil for numerous generations.
many of us love our nation dearly and do not want to see her cheated.

there is something wrong with your endless wheedling questions, rox, and i am thinking that canadian citizenship & immigration services as well as the consular services division of our department of foreign affairs and international trade should look into your situation. Certainly our embassies in asia are deeply concerned with rings of coyotes attempting to sell inaccurate advice to, indeed prey upon, the millions of asian persons who legitimately hope to migrate to our country.

and all our federal ministries including the CRA are concerned with offshore artists who obtain false canadian addresses and fake SIN numbers, in order to both evade canadian non-resident taxes now, and attempt to collect canadian old age and other benefits later.

as for rox's ravings, i don't click on embedded links.
never heard of drizzet.
never heard of cna forum, whatever that is.
have no connection to singapore.
have no other ID.
although i'm sure rox has many.


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> hey rox that distinction between being either non-resident or legally resident really pushes your buttons, doesn't it.
> 
> you've only been one short month on this forum & already you're terrified that someone is going to blow your cover.
> 
> ...


You are in self-denial mode,... really quite a coincidence that somebody in South East Asia happens to use the exact same nickname as you, huh ? Come on,..

After seeing your posts in the above, now I learn about your fears and of being found-out, or rather your creative ways to be able to think up of such tricks to cheat Canada, I am bewildered and truly surprised that such things are happening with you. You must be a natural (crook?) in this area.

Don't worry, HumblePie, or HaroldCrump, I think both of you are ONE and the same, I know what is right and what is wrong, and Canada does not need a foreigner like you to tell her what to do.

We'll let the others decide if they want to read the links or not,... I wouldn't have put them up if not for your consistent and unncessary "additions" to my discussions. Time will tell if I am worthy of the peoples' time in this good forum or not. 

By the way, I wonder what is it to you for wanting to dig about my whereabouts ? What does it matter to you if I am resident or non-resident, or wherever I am ? Who in the world are you to tell me that a non-resident should not be learning about Canadian stocks ? 

You don't own the TSX,... and of all people, investors and the people of this forum would know that the more people put money into and support the TSX, the better it would be.

As an investor and as someone who has done a lot of readings and research, I/we believed the TSX is the one with the most potential in the world for the future.

You must be envious of something that I am doing,... and for what other reasons are really beyond me,... if you have nothing better to say besides that I am not in Canada at this moment (always about resident or non-resident), then don't embarass yourself by speaking out your personal emotional problems and displaying your innermost spiritual handicaps and at the same time, eating up the disk-space in this good forum that I am contributing to.

Or are you going to start opening up other things and implying about me being legally resident, tax frauds etc after this ? Please, I only hoped that you will not pollute this forum any further.

You are torturing yourself with no reasons at all, picking a fight with me in this forum - and to what purpose ?.. The self-assumption that you are protecting Canada and the people of this forum ? The people here don't need your help, they would know how to take care of themselves.

But I am still amazed that you could think up of all those things you mentioned in the above immediate posting. False addresses and fake SIN Numbers, etc, hmmm,... I just can't imagine,...

Think I'll start to focus more on my positive energy instead of all these words,... anyway, judging by the number of responses and replies I am getting in this forum, I am happy to say that I am quite welcomed here, save and except for a delinquent like you who keep chipping-in every now and then with your space-wasting and time-wasting remarks. Keep doing so, and let's see how far you can go before you get other forummers and the Moderator upset.... a frequent visitor and "home-forummer" here behaving like this.... I'm truly surprised again,... 

End of my responses and reactions to this delinquent.


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

Greyhound and Potato,... thank you. To put both of your good points together, hopefully, the backlogs will help to pull-through the current slowdown for NFI. I like infrastructure-like businesses, to me, buses, trains and planes (in the transportation sector) are such businesses, day in and day out, there will be needs for such businesses.

But then, it's a bit too high now,... it's quite approaching its all-time high level,... think I'll put this in my radar too.


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

warp said:


> ROX:
> 
> thanks for the reply.
> 
> ...


Warp - thanks,... 

Student Transportation - I'm just a bit skeptical about their -ve NP all these years, even their chart has an indication that spells out this statement (which I think is a requirement that the regulators say they must put). Look at their website,... But, don't know, to me, the price is still okay, has not run-up that much yet, perhaps it's because of the not-so-favourable fin reports. If we go in now, and they do turn around, it's really a bonus,...

Capital Power - no doubt about this counter. But sorry, forgot to mention one thing in my earlier posting - 4 of the power stations which Capital Power manages are in the USA. The USD issue may effect the income after conversion. Dividend payout to me maintained and to grow from $1.76 per annum.

Sorry about your bond holdings, understand about that redeemeable thing,.. I did mention in some previous posts that this aspect of the bonds really throws me off. 

Looks like the other statement I mentioned about the fact that today, investing in dividend-paying shares should be the way to go,... perhaps the best way, though not the only way,...


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

hey rox please tell us which brokerage wrongfully gave you, a resident and citizen of southeast asia with no connection to canada whatsoever, a canada-based resident account.

how did you get the false address and the fake SIN.

thank you.


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

ROX:

I have no idea what your reply about Student transportation was about.

Could you clarify , please?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

IMHO, STB is a disaster waiting to happen.
Their financial situation is terrible.
This company has never made a dime of profit, and they are paying out through their noses.
They are alternately issuing debt and equity to keep funding their ponzi scheme.
The stock will keep running up until either the distribution is cut or they declare bankruptcy one fine morning.
The hedge funds and the real players will know when that is coming and will cash out just prior to that, leaving the poor suckers (retail investors) with nothing.


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

Interesting - need to take a look at them for a short then!


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

Right. So everyone is cashing out then?


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

DavidJD said:


> Right. So everyone is cashing out then?


Er no. I never "cash out" - I will ensure I have protection in place when things are up - I'll write covered calls and use the proceeds to buy puts to protect myself in the event of a big dump.

In my trading account I might sell - but I stay in always in my investment accounts - good solid dividend growth companies.

In fact I would LOVE to see another big correction. Nothing beats getting good solid dividend growth stocks crazy cheap. Back in March 2009 you could pick up good solid Canadian bank stocks with excellent dividend history and growth for 7%+ yields. If the market goes down I'll position myself short and then when it looks like it's bottomed I'll dump most of my trading account into my investing account again. Frankly I doubt I'll get another opportunity like 2008/2009 for 20 years, but if it comes along I'll happily take it!


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Lephturn said:


> Er no. I never "cash out" - I will ensure I have protection in place when things are up - I'll write covered calls and use the proceeds to buy puts to protect myself in the event of a big dump.


I don't believe STB is an optionable stock, but I could be wrong.



DavidJD said:


> Right. So everyone is cashing out then?


No, not yet.
I think the stk will keep going up as long as the gravy is flowing.


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> I don't believe STB is an optionable stock, but I could be wrong.


I was replying to the original question which was general - not in relation to any particular stock.

I tend to mostly only trade things I can protect with option contracts - I don't rule out a little speculation by going naked long or short stock, but generally I stick to bigger much more liquid instruments that I can run options strategies with - much less risky that way.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

Chart shows a low risk shorting opportunity.


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## Rox (Oct 17, 2010)

warp said:


> ROX:
> 
> I have no idea what your reply about Student transportation was about.
> 
> Could you clarify , please?


Warp,... I'm sorry, after all the arguments here, I have lost interest in debating further in this forum,... I appreciated your question and your interest to dive deeper, thank you. I'll just do my own research silently and perhaps contribute to other forums.

There are many other forums around which I am participating in and the discussions are truly mind-boggling,... to the point that sometimes, I try to refrain myself from exerting my mental-processing too much, though I enjoy doing analytical work. 

Thanks again, warp,... has been great knowing you... let me know via PM if you think it's justifiable enough to that point.


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

Personally , I like this board.

Sometimes things do get silly.....just like everything in life.

However , I have and do appreciate all the informative posts I read here.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Rox said:


> You are in self-denial mode,... really quite a coincidence that somebody in South East Asia happens to use the exact same nickname as you, huh ? Come on,..
> 
> After seeing your posts in the above, now I learn about your fears and of being found-out, or rather your creative ways to be able to think up of such tricks to cheat Canada, I am bewildered and truly surprised that such things are happening with you. You must be a natural (crook?) in this area.
> 
> ...


I can look up IP of both humble_pie and Harold. They are different people and they are both posting from Canada. I'd also much appreciate it if you refrain from posting this same message in other irrelevant threads.


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