# West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFT.TO)



## Toronto_Boy (Apr 9, 2013)

Has anyone been following West Fraser Timber lately (TSX: WFT)? 
Any input on this stock is appreciated!!!


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

i follow it but don't own any.
Lumber prices were high and they were making money hands over fists.
Lumber prices are now plummeting , so i would think WFT would as well. I would stay away until lumber price rebound.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

daddybigbucks said:


> I would stay away until lumber price rebound.
> View attachment 264


I have a small position.
I don't know when lumber prices will rebound, when they do WFT should do very nicely.
The turnaround should happen "soon", and so far they have handled the downturns quite well, so I'm comfortable waiting.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

I'm pleased with the recent runup.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

The price seems pretty volatile, any ideas?


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Working in proximity to the major timber players of the west I am interested in board prices going up again in the coming months and in the long run. 

Higher board prices coinciding with a management staff that plays the development game well is what brought WFT up earlier IMO. Conifex is a smaller name, I believe they will post good results for the next 4 quarters but as the timber changes in this region (pine beetle kill easy access/short haul to green heavy wood and/or long haul dead pine on rough terrain) I do not feel as though they are set up to succeed.

Furthermore, I see Canfor doing the correct things daily. They have the equipment others do not and the workforce capable of using it right now. Their development team is miles ahead of everyone else and they have consistently shorter haul distances. I believe they are set up to succeed greatly as each of these companies struggles with the timber market and the changes in timber profile and access.

*I would like to buy Canfor but do not currently hold any.

Cheers,
B


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

I picked some of this up last june at $40 split adjusted. 20% gain and tiny dividend.

Looking at the insider reports, they're buying back a good amount of stock.
If' I'm reading the reports they've bought and cancelled about 650k shares ($3M) since late April)
Considering their market cap, that's rather inconsequential, but it's something.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

WFG reported $6.96 of EPS in Q1 - on a share price of $105. They are probably going to earn $30 a share this year. Isn't that just crazy? You almost never see even cyclicals trading at these P/Es. - a P/E of 3 is exceptional. They bought Norbord and paid off virtually all the debt in a single quarter with only 1 month of Norbord earnings. They may earn more than $10 in this quarter. And good news, they are investing in all their mills, including some in British Columbia. But I really am interested in what these lumber companies are going to do with the cash. 

WFG should be sending gold-plated thank you cards to anyone who outbid 50 other people and paid $200k over asking for their home.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

doctrine said:


> WFG reported $6.96 of EPS in Q1 - on a share price of $105. They are probably going to earn $30 a share this year. Isn't that just crazy? You almost never see even cyclicals trading at these P/Es. - a P/E of 3 is exceptional. They bought Norbord and paid off virtually all the debt in a single quarter with only 1 month of Norbord earnings. They may earn more than $10 in this quarter. And good news, they are investing in all their mills, including some in British Columbia. But I really am interested in what these lumber companies are going to do with the cash.
> 
> WFG should be sending gold-plated thank you cards to anyone who outbid 50 other people and paid $200k over asking for their home.


*"earnings* increased to US$665 million on $2.3 billion in sales in the first three months of 2021, up from *earnings* of $9 million on sales of $890 million in the same period of 2020."

Lumber is very volatile.
1% profit to 29% is a bit of a year over year change.

Maybe they'll increase the dividend past 1%, but I think a special dividend and reinvesting makes he most sense. 
I don't really care, let management do their thing, that's what I pay them for.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Just got the offer to sell out for the massive repurchase ($1B share repurchase on a company that had a market cap of about $10B.
It's at a bit of a cyclic high, but I'm gonna hold.


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