# How do You Really Feel About the Market?



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Put aside the good and bad news in your mind and tell us how you really feel about the market. Or tell us how you are thinking about the market today after all that you have experienced throughout the years. Also keeping in mind how will you then play the market going forward?

I have of course explained how bearish I have been in the past but I am not getting the feeling right now that everything will just fall apart. I am being careful because it is October after all but I have a feeling we are very close to a good rally here and we will not be falling apart until at least early 2012. Last year I was all bearish and everything but my gut was saying we are going up but I continued to go with bearish anyway. I did make money going in and out but didn't make as much as I could have.

In 2007 I was bearish gut and all and that was the correct path as it seemed an easy play at that time. I still believe the death and destruction is coming because of the need to wash away debt but just not now. But of course like anything you have to be on your toes in case things come out of left field or the worst case scenario does all of a sudden come to be.

So I will be keeping cash on hand buying as things drop like now and will be looking more to dividends then I have in the past. I don't plan on shorting unless it is a no brainer like silver when it touched $50 because there is something about going short that doesn't ever sit right with me.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i hate it's guts ....


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## v_tofu (Apr 16, 2009)

I think I can feel it, coming in the air tonight 

Hold on... its gonna get crazy!!!


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

There is so much uncertainty out there in the world today and the world has become such an interdependent place over the past few years. That means that no geographical area is immune for whatever happens anywhere in the world and there are so many so-called potential 'Black Swan' events that could happen that it often seems to me that the markets take one step forward and two steps back with increasing frequency. For younger investors, with a long timeline, this may not matter so much but I am increasingly questioning whether the stock market is any place for a retired person to park his or her life savings. Anyway, I think that great volatility in the markets will be the new norm.

As to whether we will recoup our latest losses in the relative short term, I believe that is a crap shoot. Many world banks are holding useless government and other debt and will need bailouts if they are to survive. In the meantime, governments are running out of options. Even China may be heading for a hard landing. There just doesn't seem to be any cause for optimism out there but I have been in the markets long enough to know that, when all is said and done, investor sentiment can turn on a dime and markets often recover long before the economy starts to improve.

I only hope that this is not the time when it will be different!!

I remain fully invested and, if the ship goes down, I will be going down with it!


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I feel like I don't have enough experience to know how I feel.

But, from what it looks like..

I see this as a good opportunity, for everyone in the world, to crash, start over, and rise again.

Like a child playing with fire, eventually, ya get burned. Then you learn your lesson.

I continue to invest, but only in dividend payers. No speculative plays.

I do short sometimes, though.

We will recover - in time.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

At my age, the big question is will I have enough time to live to see the recovery?

I thinkin' that it could take 10 or 20 years for the world economy to start to recover from this crisis.


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## Liquid Independence (Oct 6, 2011)

I'm feeling bullish right now. There is a lot of fear and lack of confidence in the market, but I think the fundamentals for the world's economy is still very sound and will continue to grow. From a supply and demand perspective, commodities will continue to remain strong and that's good for Canadian equities.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

It is kind of funny belguy that you always feel worse and uncertain when you are fully invested and you feel more bullish short term anyway when you have cash to deploy.

Fatcat I think we all like the market because it is the lazy mans way to try to make it without doing to much work. 

Realistically only real estate makes people money when you put the work into it or even when you don't a lot of the time. Sure all the forum buddies will bring up study after study with long term returns and all that crap but in reality it doesn't work the way they think. Most people who make it in the market do so with putting in most of the money themselves over time and then getting some kind of return on that money.

When you look around and really talk to people almost no one made it in the stock market but you can sure find a lot of people who made it in the real estate market. I like the stock market with all its problems because it is exciting and I have made some money there but my best returns have come from playing the bond market over the years.

Also belguy don't worry volatile markets will end when the secular bear market ends and the new buy and hold secular bull market begins.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Belguy

If you don't mind my asking.. how much do you have invested?


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

fatcat said:


> i hate it's guts ....


lol


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Kaejs have you done well shorting. It also sounds like you feel the end is here, the forest will burn down and new life will begin again. I think this is true but not today and instead we have a pine beetle infestation like the one in BC that is waiting for a big fire to start over again. So we will call Greece and the debt in the world the pine beetles that have been multiplying for years until something drastic happens to kill them all off.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Around 600M and falling!!

But, what the hell, it's only money!!

When it gets up over a million, I'm going to start to spend it but, by then, I will probably not remember what I planned to buy!!


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I have done well shorting. But not every time.

As with buying, sometimes you get screwed or squeezed.

I like shorting the mornings and then selling out before things get too wild. The trick for me is to get in and get out. If you short and only make $100, fine. keep the $100 and wait till you feel comfortable again.

But occasionally I'll pull a short and then the futures change and the stock starts going green... in that case I just sell my position immediately. I don't wait around. I'm either in, or I'm out and I never hold overnight.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Belguy said:


> Around 600M and falling!!
> 
> But, what the hell, it's only money!!
> 
> When it gets up over a million, I'm going to start to spend it but, by then, I will probably not remember what I planned to buy!!


I read that as $600,000,000.
I almost died of a heart attack before you, Belguy! 

$1M? you've got a long way to go, friend.


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## mind_business (Sep 24, 2011)

First off, since we seem to be testing new waters ... again ... gut feel is all most of us can go by. No one has seen global markets in quite this situation before. 

Having said that, my gut feel is that the next couple of years will be a great buying opportunity for people who are in a position to do so. I'm not in a position to take large positions in anything over the next year or so, however we're investing steadily every month, taking advantage of DCA. I will look to buy into a few bargains outside of our regular investing when I think the time is right. Perhaps you guys can let me know when that happens


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Belguy said:


> Around 600M and falling!!
> 
> But, what the hell, it's only money!!
> 
> When it gets up over a million, I'm going to start to spend it but, by then, I will probably not remember what I planned to buy!!


You said 10 years to achieve the goal?

To turn $600K into $1M in exactly 10 years from today requires an annual rate of return of only 5.25%.
Not too bad, actually - assuming no withdrawals and no contributions.

GIC's can give you the first 3% and an investment grade corporate bond fund can give you the rest.

I see absolutely no reason for you to be invested in equities, esp 60%


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

Actually, I don't mind these markets.

I'm only buying stuff, not selling. 

I've got a nice basket of bonds that DRIPs every month and I've got a dozen stocks that DRIP every month and quarter. I actually hope things go down a bunch more so I can get more stocks at cheaper prices.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Kaejs moving in and out quickly is the short game so it sounds like you have the right idea there.

Mind business you pretty much have in mind what I do and I will sound the bell when the bottom hits. Usually the bottom occurs when you get an intraday turnaround with very high volume, oversold conditions to the extreme and the VIX at a high usually 50 or more in a ridiculous extreme like Oct 2008. 

Financial Cents I am also comfortable in this market but I am not happy with the effects on people the unemployment and so on. Cheap market good, suffering not so good.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

I feel good about the market. Now that I don't play sports competitively anymore, investing is the game of choice. Have to beat the indexes and the so-called pro fund managers. Have to always have a positive annual return as well. Doing so on both accounts so far.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

All those markets are complete [email protected] than casino... I hate it... it's worse than drugs, you start and you can't quit...


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm getting bored with the market and its volatility. Sitting on my hands mostly in cash for now.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Just returned from a month in France. Aside for soccer, their main focus is on Greece. The only surprise upon returning was the weak C$. First news report was Jobs death. I was surprised by the worldwide outpouring. I guess he really was in touch with consumers.

I think volatility is the new norm, and I am afraid that we will see a few years of bumping along, not setting any records except for the VIX.

(I also suspect that belguy is an accountant since they use M for 1000. He must be doing OK because his last report was 500M.  )


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Belguy said:


> At my age, the big question is will I have enough time to live to see the recovery?
> 
> I thinkin' that it could take 10 or 20 years for the world economy to start to recover from this crisis.


It has really been one crisis that ignited everything - it started in the mid to late 90s with the dotcom bubble where companies values got excessive compared to earnings. This combined with 9-11 caused a major problem in the North American economy. It led to low rates for a long time which led to the real estate bubble and US credit crisis. 

So I think we are already 10 years into this and probably have about five years left to go in this secular bear market. We are probably in the midst of another correction right now.

I think this correction has brought companies back into a level of fair valuation so I am happy to buy right now as I have a very long time horizon before I need the money. I am well aware we could drop another 30% or so down to S&P 850. This would provide a reasonable bottom from which we could grow out from. The money managers and speculators have been fighting this market drop but it really does need to happen to let everything get cleared up and let people accept their losses. Once we are there things will stabilize. Companies would have affordable multiples and dividends.

We are just used to the overvalued market that has existed since the mid-90s. So we are fixated on what we think the market cap should be.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

> Fatcat I think we all like the market because it is the lazy mans way to try to make it without doing to much work.


 dog, i am not a gambler by nature ... i go to the casinos with my $200 and faithfully play the nickel slots and $2 blackjack until i am properly broke and then i go home 

the stock market at the moment resembles nothing more than a roulette wheel and one can get ruined or rich depending on how the wheel spins

if gic's paid another 1.50 percent on the 5 year i would probably be happily building a gic ladder and never read the financials ever again but it appears as though this may not happen for a long time (pity the poor savers) so one must come to terms with the market

but i still hate it ...


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I don't mind the low market prices, but the volatility is frustrating... don't want to buy today only to have the TSX drop 1000 points in 2-3 days.. would much rather buy at the lower level!


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## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

To me , the market and all of it's volatility is no longer based on anything fundamental. It used to be all about profits and losses of the companies on the exchanges . If your company did well then you made money on the stocks. The extreme swings up and down are bad enough but the excuses given by the media are laughable. What the bleep will anything that Greece does, do to us over here? Why are analysts always "worried" about something and causes them to sell and drive the price of commodities or stocks in a particular sector down?Do they go home to their spouses and bury their head in their hands and cry out that they're worried because there is a one percent chance that there might be more hurricanes in the gulf next year? I know I sound jaded and it is because I am. The volatility is almost becoming predictable. You know a few days of massive selloff will be followed by a dramatic runup. I am beginning to think that the big boys are manipulating it down and then picking up the buys on the cheap. They make it go the way they want it. I'm just the poor schmuck with my hand on the slot machine handle. To me the market is now a full blown casino. Just my opinion.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

With the speed of trading, computer programs, plunge protection team, hedge funds, the Fed and so on do make for a manipulated mess to take place so you are right there diharv.

Fundamentals are for protection from losing all your money while you play the game but will not protect you from a big slide in stocks in general. Greece on its own doesn't mean much but what is does mean is a failure of the Euro, possible failure of over leveraged banks and worst of all a possible domino effect. After Greece fails those hedge funds and such will move on to Italy and Spain then Ireland and finally the US itself. This will be great for gold but bad for everything else as people lose faith in fiat currencies which will be where we will probably end up and then the new super bull market will begin out of the ashes.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I won't pretend to have a clue about where the market may be going from here. Compared to the "regulars" here, I know very little about investing - I have no trouble admitting that. My strategy of late has been to invest about half of my available cash into dividend paying stocks and ETF's - even if the market drops again, at least the dividends will be there to take the sting out of it. And by still retaining a good amount of cash handy, I can still take advantage of a market decline. 

Just trying to hedge my bets.


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## Ethan (Aug 8, 2010)

I also feel that the market has lost touch with fundamentals and has turned into a casino. Central bankers are not helping anything by keeping interest rates historically low and bailing out bankrupt companies and countries, if anything they are encouraging the exact behaviour that got us in the place we are today.

Commodity price fluctuation is also frustrating, look at oil. In the past 4 years it has gone from $80 up to $147, down to $40, back up over $100, then back down to $70. No chart based on supply of oil, nor world demand for oil, will ever support that kind of volatility. Some people are making money on this volatility, but it has very detrimental effects on companies directly affected by these commodities, such as oil and gas companies and shipping companies. The volatility is not healthy for the broader economy.

I do think that this volatility has made some exceptional buying opportunities in small and mid-cap companies. I can find several companies with PE ratios under 8 trading for less than book value. When reading Ben Grahams "Intelligent Investor" I thought I would never see the stocks he discussed buying in the 30's, ie profitable companies trading for less than half of book value. But you can find them today. I'm buying into companies like this, trying to ignore the short term volatility, and keeping faith that a return to fundamentals will return these companies to proper valuations.

My dream sceanrio would be for central banks to slowly raise rates and stop bailing out failing organizations. This includes countries such as Greece. Europe should just cut their losses rather than pour more money into a country that I think will inevitably default.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

diharv said:


> 1. market and all of it's volatility is no longer based on anything fundamental.
> 
> 2.What the bleep will anything that Greece does, do to us over here?


1. True enough.

2. As *Dogcom* said, it's not only about the pain of the Greeks, but also about who owns the Greek debt, such as European banks, so it's not only Greece, but the UK, France, Germany specially, their currency, etc. Remember the immediate negative market impact in recent days caused by talks of Dexia's fall/break-up and/or restructure caused by its exposure to Greek & Italian debt? Anyway, most of us here are not Economists or professionals to understand it all, so it is best to keep explanations simple IMO.

To answer Dogcom's question, these markets have been painful & successful learning experiences for me & overall, I do feel optimistic because little can be accomplished with pessimism, in fact, the latter simply frightens & paralyzes you. 

I also have not been sitting around while the markets have remained [over a long period of time now] in roller-coaster mode & stocks insanely & indiscriminately punished.  I really don't worry too much about things I have no control over, so I basically handle the turbulence the simplest way I know how and prefer to learn, tune out the noise & take action rather than whine.

Some of what I have been doing:

- have cash readily available
- traditional trading [to raise capital; also learning option trading]
- booking a % of profits [in order to raise/preserve capital while the wild swings continue]
- dripping/OCP
- adding/averaging down/starting new positions [to take advantage of bargains of solid companies, which abound here and abroad]
- 'buy low/sell high' *[don't do the opposite]*
- 'be greedy when others are fearful'


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Good sound list Toronto.gal and may I add some gold and gold producing stocks for the complete disaster protection as disaster is a very likely scenario with the sovereign debt crises looming. 

So i would say anyone who thinks that we are in the usual environment of recession inventory purge and so on are wrong. Sure most forum buddies in the know will think this way and I think they are dead wrong. It is gloom and doom which equals opportunity when the time is right scenario which we are in so keep your cash safe and add in but don't go all in.

I remember in 2008 all the forum buddies thinking the old ways did have their lunch handed to them by ignoring the noise. It was a credit crisis then and not the usual as they so thought which is where they went wrong. Where I went wrong is thinking the rally after the destruction would not be so good which it wouldn't have been if not for all the money thrown at it. This time we have to wait and see if they will throw gobs and gobs of money at it or will they tap out. So because of this we need to keep our money safe but do nibble at the bargains.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

In a New York Times editorial reprinted in today's Toronto Star, they point out that the global economy is again "slowing dangerously". Moreover, politicians, instead of looking for ways to reignite growth, are on an austerity kick and are determined to slash public spending. The Times editorial states that "this policy is wrong and is likely to tip the world into a deep recession".

Their conclusion: "Economic policy makers have made similar mistakes before. That is what caused the Great Depression. There is not a lot of time left to get this right."

The title of the editorial is 'Killing the Recovery'.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I am still doing my DCA but think I will invest in some physical gold and silver , canned goods and bomb shelter in the back yard


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

You should also have some sort of a weapon at the ready to fend off the hungry hoards!!


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I found this article interesting.

The average length of time a stock is held is 22 seconds.

This is due to computerized trading, which control the vast majority of stock trades.

It is so refined, the computers now "read" the news, searching for keywords, and then make the decision to buy or sell.

Incredible...........

"Buy and hold" now means holding onto a stock for a minute or so.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...spx?post=e9460aab-d393-48a1-9112-8d8e4ddee50e


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

It makes you wonder if the current volatility in the markets is here to stay or just some shorter term phenomenon and that things will ever get back to the way that the markets used to operate before they turned into the gut-wrenching roller coaster ride that we have now.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I prefer the Buffett way sags and that is buy and hold forever or about an hour or so.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

That's about it!! Holding a stock for an hour or so is the way that the markets are going!!


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

I find it somewhat depressing that so many so-called "buy-and-hold" investors on the forum are watching & worrying about the markets on a minute-by-minute basis. The whole point of passive investing is to devote little time to investing. Markets fluctuate, even extreme volatility is nothing new (how soon we have forgotten 2008!). It is very unrealistic to expect stocks to provide a smooth return. An equities investor should expect that she will encounter extreme drops in the stock market at many unknown points in the future. She will also encounter extreme up moves in the stock market at many unknown points in the future (how soon we've forgotten 2009!). On average, she can expect her stocks to return more than bonds over long holding periods but this is not a guarantee by any means. And her stocks are expected to return more precisely because stocks are more volatile than bonds. In other words, if you want higher returns, you should be willing to take on more risk.

If you can't handle a sudden and rapid drop in the stock market, you should dial down your risk exposure. That means increasing allocation to "safe" assets such as bonds and cash. As someone said earlier, if you can't take the heat, you should get out of the kitchen.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i for one think there is enormous value in CC's message.

as for what a properly constructed & properly managed etf portfolio can do for you, i believe i saw, over on CC's blog, a recent report that his model couch potato portfolio has returned 25% since the year 2005. 

i was pretty impressed.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

25% in 7 years for a portfolio 80% in stocks isn't all that great but it's still relatively early days. The two largest holdings (VTI and EFA make up 45% of the portfolio) are still underwater (in C$ terms) even after 7 years. But my expectations for the portfolio are also modest. About 6 to 8 percent long term.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

sags said:


> "Buy and hold" now means holding onto a stock for a minute or so.
> http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...spx?post=e9460aab-d393-48a1-9112-8d8e4ddee50e


Since this represents 70% of the volume, it is also 70% of the profits?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

what caught my eye is that CC's model portf has passed through 3 bad years - 08, early 09 & 11 yr-to-date - yet has performed quite respectably.

i suppose it has been held down by strength of USD in early years of the time period, which would have cost the CAD investor ... tables have been turned in recent years but with the big USD holdings, investor has recently been in the wrong currency, i would imagine.

so this also makes the 25% real gain singularly impressive. If USD catches up & we revert to the usual cad/usd mean, this potato might suddenly begin to do even better, might it not.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

I agree globally diversified portfolios have had a very rough decade. (S&P 500 is trading at 1998 levels and for Canadian investors it's even worse because our $ has appreciated strongly). In Jan. 2005, the C$ was at 81 cents. Now it is at 97 cents. That's a loss of 16% in currency. If the C$ were to mean revert, it will boost returns somewhat and the numbers will become a bit more respectable.



humble_pie said:


> so this also makes the 25% real gain singularly impressive. If USD catches up & we revert to the usual cad/usd mean, this potato might suddenly begin to do even better, might it not.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I can easily remember the good old days when you could do better with a ladder of GIC's and pass on the volatility even though the markets were not as volatile back then.

My dad lived a very decent life without ever investing a penny in the stock market and he also advised me to keep my hard-earned savings out of the market as well.

I didn't listen.

As for the optimism that this time isn't any different than other recent times of volatility, I respectfully disagree.

All things considered, I think that it is going to take several years to work our way out of this mess!!


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

^ at least the market was in the green today!


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

How i feel about the market ? i feel great, Mr Market going down is just another reason to accumulate/invest more !


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

^ Looks like we are in for a day in the red tomorrow!

I'd like the rest of the week to be red. I want to get BMO at $56 or less.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Belguy said:


> As for the optimism that this time isn't any different than other recent times of volatility, I respectfully disagree.


When exactly did you have these good old days when stocks were not as volatile? Check out this graphic that depicts extreme moves in the markets. Markets have been volatile in the past, sometimes more so than today. In fact, it is the calm years such as 2004-06 that are unusual.










Source: http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/strategies/how-to-play-the-volatile-stock-market-1318289157816/


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## Assetologist (Apr 19, 2009)

Thank you for the graphical depiction CC!
It does seem that many people truly think "it's different this time" and act accordingly which provides the basis of capitulation and buying opportunities for others.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

It is not different but instead it will be a lot like the 1930's as the chart shows above.

I think it is normal to see this volatility as we end the debt cycle. Notice that low volatility is in evidence during the time after the previous death and destruction of the last depression. We are in the final wave of 4 following the last depression and now we must purge the debt again. I happen to agree with belguy here.

But with destruction comes opportunity and that is where we are heading now so get spanked, profit on the chaos or hold your cash. Assetologist we are in a good rally that should give us good returns but will not hold as we get dragged into another spanking. Secular bear markets are a ***** but that is where we are.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Asher Edelman, a renowned Wall Street shark, now teaches at a private college and writes a blog. 

It is interesting reading, as he dissects the financial minutia into something easy to understand.

His outlook is grim..........but as he says, it has all happened before.

Except that the sheer monetary size of the problems are too big for any government to handle, and political philosophical infighting will prevent any solutions being implemented........before it is too late.

http://asheredelman.com/


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Now, under any set of normal circumstances, we should care less about what Slovak lawmakers decide. However, in today's world of globalized finances, the headline 'Slovakia rejects euro bailout' catches one's eye. Now, the fate of our investment accounts not only depends on what happens in Greece, but also in Slovakia for heaven's sake and in any of the other 17 countries in the euro area.

Not only that but, with globalization, investors are living in a whole new world where what happens in any given country anywhere in the world affects stock markets everywhere. It doesn't have to be Slovakia, it could be Zwaziland or wherever!!

And those markets are where we choose to park our hard-earned life savings!!

How dumb is that!!!

In the past, if there was a credit crisis in one part of the world, our portfolios were largely protected by geographical diversification.

In today's world, such diversification doesn't matter one wit because, whenever something negative happens anywhere at all, down go the markets everywhere!!!!

Ain't investing in the markets fun?? You've gotta love it!!


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Hi:

People seem to want markets to be all things to all people all the time. I want to buy today, and never see the price go under what I paid. I want to sell today and never see it go over what I sold at. I want the market to only increase. A fair number of our desires for the market are contradictory.

I see the market as a pool of opportunity. When prices are low, the opportunity is to buy. When high, the opportunity to sell. The market has seasons. You can sell in buy season, but you are likely to lose money, just as you can ski in July if you are willing to fly to Chile. Possible, but expensive.

Right now I personally want a sell season because I want to spend 6 figures on a boat. Unfortunately it was sell season 6 or 12 months ago, but back then I didn't know I would have a cancer scare, 2 operations, and find myself thinking about life and death while looking at the boats in the Bay of Quinte. If I had known, I would have sold more SU at a few pennies under $47 instead of what I did sell because I happened to need that amount of cash that day.

However, I can't force the market to be in a sell season when it is in a buy season. So I have been adding to my positions while they are on sale (SU! etc.). It might take me a year or two to identify the right type of boat and actually find one to purchase. Maybe sell season will swing around again by then. If not, maybe I'll have to say **ck it and buy the boat anyhow.

hboy43


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Belguy said:


> And those markets are where we choose to park our hard-earned life savings!!
> *How dumb is that!!!*.


So why don't you take the smart approach & park it where it's safe?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

hboy43 said:


> 1. I see the market as a pool of opportunity. When prices are low, the opportunity is to buy. When high, the opportunity to sell.
> 
> 2. you can ski in July if you are willing to fly to Chile.


1. That simple indeed!

2. Though the Chilean Andes is very nice, I prefer Chile in the summer [when it's winter here].


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Belguy said:


> Ain't investing in the markets fun?? You've gotta love it!!


I do love it.

And I wish I didn't. 

It's kind of like having a Significant Other.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

As of today, i am in the green YTD 

I did some buy (of ETF) at various point of the last weeks low's, i am confident that the next 3 months will be good !


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

larry81, you must figure that Slovakia is going to pass the euro bailout package (if they have not already) to be so confident about equities--well, for the next three months anyway!!

Apparently, you are not concerned about the never ending possible 'Black Swan' events that could occur in our globalized economy that will send stocks tumbling again!!

You invests your money and you takes your chances!!! 

It's really a crap shoot!!


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Belguy said:


> larry81, you must figure that Slovakia is going to pass the euro bailout package (if they have not already) to be so confident about equities--well, for the next three months anyway!!
> 
> Apparently, you are not concerned about the never ending possible 'Black Swan' events that could occur in our globalized economy that will send stocks tumbling again!!
> 
> ...


Slovakia will pass the bill sooner than later, do you really think euro future will depend on a 6 million population country ? At the moment, its just politics as usual.

As for black swan events, they are part of the things that must be considered when investing in equities. I am not scared, for me a black swan event would be a great opportunity to deploy more capital in the market.

The idea of losing to inflation (now 3% or so in Canada) is a no no for me.

I am young, i have the risk tolerance and the stomach to handle the volatility, i am happy with equities


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

really a crap shoot ?

Alice in Wonderland has the last word:

_"That is not said right," said the Caterpillar.

"Not quite right, I'm afraid," said Alice timidly; "some of the words have got altered."

"It is wrong from beginning to end," said the Caterpillar decidedly, and there was silence for some minutes._


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

We have entered the age of a globalized economy.

This is not your father's stock market.

The markets are intertwined and do not act the same way as they used to.

The times they are a changing.

It's not like it used to be!!!

Time will tell what the longer term effects will be for investors.

Younger investors will learn the lesson but we older geezers will be long gone before the message is clear.

This time, it IS different!!

For example, the average U.S. wage has dropped ten per cent in just the past three years with little prospect for improvement anytime soon.

Optimism is in short supply.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

You should be in GIC Belguy ! Or a 20% bonds / 80% equities


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Belguy is a funny guy but he does have a point. The US is an empire that has seen its best days but is still the go to place when uncertainty rises.

The best of the forum buddies and blogs spout the long term but do they really know what is really long term. We talk about 1940 to today to get our normal but that is hardly a very long time frame in the grand scheme of things. But because we are mortal we can only go so far in our way of going about things. Belguy seems crazy to you but is he really when you go far far back. 

My mind is very open and ready for anything and that is what protected me from the so called long term forum buddies, bloggers and elite in 2008. Keep in mind however I do not dismiss the forum buddies either because my mind is open to everything and willing to change as I learn. This message goes out to all the perma bears, bulls, forum buddies, letter writers and the elite bloggers that you don't know everything and should be on guard from what you do think you know and consider normal.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Slovakia will/will not pass the bailout bill..............which is from last July.

Since July, Greece's revenues have declined and their spending has gone up.

Not exactly an example of austerity in action.

They will require significantly more than was outlined in July, and more countries than Slovakia object to bailouts to banks.

There is an assessment of a 60-80% "haircut" to the bondholders. In essence, the Greeks are defaulting on their debt.

The unknown question today is..............how far the contagion will spread.

What world banks are holding Greek debt, that falls in the black hole of derivatives category, and how do they account for the asset value, on their own books.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/math-behind-greek-myth

PS...The Greek Finance Ministry just went on strike for 9 days, just to make things more interesting.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-greece-protests-newspro-idUSTRE79B40I20111012


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I'm thinking Europe is not as significant to our investments as the USA downgrade and current grid lock with their political gong show.

I'm thinking Harrisburg defaulting on its bonds might be even more significant in the next couple months.

Hope I'm wrong.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Eder Europe is the start and the powers to be are trying to do everything so there is no start but are starting to fail. Greece goes then we go to another country and then another until we get to the US. At the moment the only market liquid enough outside the Euro is the US dollar so by default that is where the huge money flows must go when running from risk.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Well, I'm not sure whether being characterized as "a funny guy" is meant as a compliment of something else.

The point, that I have been emphasizing, is that the markets have become globalized and the world is in one heck of a fragile shape economically.

For the glass half full crowd, things could start to get better again and all of our fears will have been for naught. Then, many of you can proudly proclaim that you told me so and that, indeed, this time it was not any different at all!

Or, everything could easily tip the other way and we could find ourselves in a situation reminiscent of 1932.

I remember that year well and what happened to most portfolios of the time wasn't pretty.

However, two or three decades later later, portfolios had recouped most of their losses and so, if you are a glass half empty person, do not fear as everything will recover with time, albeit potentially taking quite a number of years!!


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Belguy said:


> Or, everything could easily tip the other way and we could find ourselves in a situation reminiscent of *1932*.
> 
> *I remember that year well* and what happened to most portfolios of the time wasn't pretty.
> 
> !!


How old are you again?


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

That would mean Belguy is over 80.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Belguy said:


> I'm not sure whether being characterized as "a funny guy" is meant as a compliment of something else.


I think you know the answer to that!

You do entertain the CMF crowd with your humour Mr. Belguy, but I admit that your unrelenting disrespect for traders does not delight much, it just irritates.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Personally, I don't understand this whole investing vs. trading religious wars.

First of all, time frame : where do you draw the line of investing vs. trading?
1 month? 1 year? 5 years? 20 years? till death do us part?

Secondly, the expectation for profit : the goal for either is to make profits, right?
So called investors deride so called traders as chasing short term profits.
Does this mean that long term investors have no expectation for profit?

Thirdly, fees and commissions : here obviously the die-hard long term investors have an edge, however, these days with $4.95 and $6.95 trades it is less and less an issue.
Furthermore, if you made a trade that netted you $100 after costs, it is still a profit regardless.
Are the investors saying they would rather not have that $100?
Fine, send it my way.

To me, the only factor is time availability.
More frequent buy/sell decisions require more time than buy-hold-and-forget (oops, I mean prosper).
The skills can be acquired over time through reading, observing, watching, discussing, shadowing, and of course, experiencing.
The key factor is time and interest, and there is no right answer to that.
Everyone is different.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Yes, I am a buy & hold investor, but on the days it rains ( like today in Ottawa) I enjoy watching the most actives and poaching a couple of dollars....it makes me feel good & dirty at the same time.


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## Mockingbird (Apr 29, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Put aside the good and bad news in your mind and tell us how you really feel about the market. Or tell us how you are thinking about the market today after all that you have experienced throughout the years. Also keeping in mind how will you then play the market going forward?


I left the feelings and predictions back in 2001-2002. I realized that the market doesn't care for my feelings. (In return, I don't fall in love with of any of my holdings) Better to let the so-called experts figure those stuff out. They are dime a dozen.

All I'm interested in is the* risk management *- whether I'm day trading, swing trading, or investing. It continued to serve me well since the internet bubble, and even more so in 2007 and now. This is the best trader's market since the initial credit crunch and I hope this volatility continues on for a while. In 2001, I just watched the market in horror like many people in here, but now I'm an active participant on both side of the market. Great money to be made here.

People should have a reasonable plan, not predictions. Have a plan that is actually achievable and that they are actually going to execute. What's the use if they fail to actualize it - happened to many in 2001, 2007, and I'm sure it will happen again. If you are an investor, then have a proper asset allocation and ignore all the news. Do your DCA and rebalance the portfolio regularly.

My 2c.
MB


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Harper, Flaherty, and Carney were all featured on 'The National' tonight and all are warning Europe that time is fast running out and that there may be only a few weeks left to get things right! They are emphatically stating that a 440 billion euro bailout is far too puny and that a minimum of a TRILLION euros is needed to avoid a calamity!!!! That's approximately 1.5 trillion dollars!!!!

We are just weeks away from a potentially catastrophic beginning of a deep and long lasting world recession unless the European leaders finally come to their senses. 

It's not often that these three leaders all come out on the same day with the same warning.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

That bullet point has been repeated over and over all summer. The EFSF is useless unless it has a 2T minimum funding requirement, in case Italy (GDP 2.11T) or Spain (GDP 1.46T) can't finance itself from bond auctions on the open market the EFSF needs to-hopefully only temporarily-take over. The fund should really have more like 5T, and there's no way all 17 members are going revote and get that approved in time. It's over.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Indeed, it's over!

Let the calamity begin!!


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Hey Belguy, i suggest you turn your tv off and stop listening to 'forecast teller'.

Even better, do a quick google search and try to find out how accurate past predictions of analyst/forecast teller/witch were in the last fifty years vs. how things turned out to be.

ps: dont look outsite, the sky is actually failing !!!


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Geez, do you think?


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

great article for all the zerohedge, permabears, this time its different, sky is failing type:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/10/14/stocks-for-the-long-long-run-.aspx


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

larry, great article.

Here's where all the bearish folk should be looking:



> "What keeps Siegel bullish on the long term is a belief that what drives our economy over time is still alive and well. In the short run, economists focus on demand as the key economic driver. In the long run, *the real fuel is productivity, or output per hour worked, and population growth*. This is one of the least controversial theories in economics, but it, too, is prone to criticism when viewed over different time periods."


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Population growth to the rescue


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I sense a lot of bullishness from Friday, wouldn't be surprised to see all dips bought next week and puts expire worthless (weekly+monthly opex again), the range should be intact just contract a bit


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

For those who may be interested but missed the earlier showing, Peter Mansbridge One-on-One with Mark Carney will be repeated on CBC News Network at 9:30 PM EDT tonight. I think that you will find it informative.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Thanks Belguy, I did miss it last time. Carney said from his talks with EU politicians they have moved into implementation.. The G20 have also called that a lasting solution is ratified in the next 7 days, preferably at the EU Summit on October 23.

So, no trades for me until after October 23!


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

> Thanks Belguy, I did miss it last time. Carney said from his talks with EU politicians they have moved into implementation.. The G20 have also called that a lasting solution is ratified in the next 7 days, preferably at the EU Summit on October 23.
> 
> So, no trades for me until after October 23!


 right, me too but can we trust whatever comes out of their mouths ? ... they are needing a complete political re-structuring to occur in just about a month or something ...


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The European leaders have approximately two weeks left to get it right and they will need to put at least the equivalent of a TRILLION and a half Canadian dollars into the kitty to backstop the European nations that are in trouble and the banks that are holding the bad debt.

If you have faith in politicians, then you will expect that they will ultimately do the right thing and the world will pull back from the brink of another recession more deep and longer lasting than the last.

If you have little to no faith in politicians, then you will be sitting on a lot of cash right now awaiting the calamity that is about to unfold.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am sure they will get it right if kicking the can down the road means anything and then it will still fall apart.


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