# Canada Goose (GOOS) IPO



## Alayambo (Dec 17, 2013)

Anyone gonna take part in this? What should we expect?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

IPOs are crap shoots. Like putting your money on red or black in Vegas. Let it trade for awhile and then decide. There are several stories of stocks trading below their IPO price within months of offering.


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## NorthKC (Apr 1, 2013)

Based on history of prior IPOs, stock price often drops below the IPO price so I'd wait until then.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

You still have to do your due diligence. If they have priced it fairly, then it is probably a good long term hold.

I have had spectacular success with IPOs that I chose. But it was a small sample of the ones available.

I agree that it is more of a crap shoot now.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

This is a private equity exit. It's not priced "fairly" - it's priced where they can raise the most money, with a secondary concern being not fleecing the market so much that it falls in the first day. After that, all bets are off. It looks expensive to me. Most of the shares are coming from insiders, not for new capital to grow the business. Might not be the best idea to push through them on their way out.


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## Earl (Apr 5, 2016)

Canada Goose coats seem to have fallen in popularity recently. I remember around 2010 they were the coat to have if you were one of the cool kids. Now there are many more competitors. They're still a quality coat but they're not as coveted by every kid any more.


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## Ag Driver (Dec 13, 2012)

Deleted


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Ag Driver said:


> I must be really fashion forward along with my other blue collar friends. I can't wait for my Tough Duck and Carhartt's to become trendy ... We will all be sitting on a gold mine!


Don't the hipsters in urban Toronto already try to dress like lumberjacks and village people? Someone on CBC radio said the Goose jacket trend came from Drake and Batista wearing them.. and now they think there's international potential. I can't picture many Europeans buying this.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

doctrine said:


> This is a private equity exit ... Most of the shares are coming from insiders, not for new capital to grow the business.



the above is usually not a good sign. The original entrepreneurs are rushing to sell because they sense a market peak for their holdings.

there are canada goose copies from factories in asia that sell for 1/8th the price. They are indistinguishable from the real thing except that hoods are lined with fake fur, not coyote fur. The former might revive better than the latter after being worn in wet sleeting snow conditions though.

.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

My understanding is Canada Goose's strategy was to target high profile users to spur sales and interest. From Wikipedia:


> The jackets have been worn in several films, including by Nicolas Cage (in National Treasure), Jessica Alba (in Good Luck Chuck) and Kate Beckinsale (in Whiteout).[19][not in citation given] American model Kate Upton appeared on the cover of the 2013 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit edition in a bikini bottom and a Canada Goose parka.[20] Product placement with celebrities was part of the marketing strategy when it went international in 2010.[21]
> 
> In 2016, rapper Lil Uzi Vert released a mixtape featuring a song titled "Canadian Goose".
> 
> Canada Goose even uses athletes to promote its products. During Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz's final trip to Toronto during the 2016 Major League Baseball season, Toronto Blue Jays players José Bautista and Edwin Encarnación each gave Ortiz a custom-made Canada Goose jacket, valued at US$1000. All three players are from the Dominican Republic.[22][23]


Seems like a fantastic strategy to provide a monetization opportunity for the insiders. Given the extremely fickle and fake nature of fashion, I expect that surge to fade faster than indigo dyed denims.


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

Nothing wrong with the principals going to the market to provide liquidity to their investment. Their timing & pricing seems have worked well for them. 
Which is to say that new investors may find the company challenged to maintain their recent growth. 
The parkas do seem to be catering to luxury/discretionary buyers. 

Funny how things go. I think back to the market that Woods (once a Canadian icon) used to sell their Arctic Oil King parkas and other outerwear into. I wonder if the goose are as warm as the oil king was? It was toasty, even under helicopter downwash on days we worked outside at -45deg c.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

.

altaRed fashspeak says that you have just delivered the KOD to the poor goose




AltaRed said:


> Seems like a fantastic strategy to provide a monetization opportunity for the insiders. Given the extremely fickle and fake nature of fashion, I expect that surge to fade faster than indigo dyed denims.
> 
> (The jackets have been worn in several films, including by Nicolas Cage (in National Treasure), Jessica Alba (in Good Luck Chuck) and Kate Beckinsale (in Whiteout).[19][not in citation given] American model Kate Upton appeared on the cover of the 2013 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit edition in a bikini bottom and a Canada Goose parka.[20] Product placement with celebrities was part of the marketing strategy when it went international in 2010.[21]
> 
> ...








OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Nothing wrong with the principals going to the market to provide liquidity to their investment



it's true there's nothing wrong with the principals going to the market - for the principals.

but for retail investors thinking to buy, when most of the shares being IPO'd are, in fact, 2nd hand shares being offed by the corporate founders & insiders, that's usually considered to be a red flag.

often in such a case, a prospectus will recite that the proceeds of the IPO are to be used for general corporate development. No specific acquisition or new business initiative is mentioned.

mercifully, regulators do require that the prospectuses divulge whether most of an IPO's shares are coming from the founders' stakes. Caveat emptor.


.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

Simply put, the valuation on this company is very high. I fail to see why you would pay a rich amount for a clothing company when the product can reasonably be copied by low cost competitors. I wouldn't rush in.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

Roots? Whatever happened to the Roots brand? They still on the go?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Stunning move today, GOOS up 31%. This thing started trading around $23 and is now $79, more than 3x in a little over a year. With $8.5 billion market cap.


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

Holy crap. I ignored this IPO because it seemed like a flash in the pan.


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## lifeliver (Aug 30, 2010)

Lululemon is doing pretty good this year too.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Yea we bought LULU at 17.47 in non-reg so we are in for the distance. Even we are surprised at its resilience. Total holding is just over $100k.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

kcowan said:


> Yea we bought LULU at 17.47 in non-reg so we are in for the distance. Even we are surprised at its resilience. Total holding is just over $100k.


very nice call ... i do yoga so i have wanted to buy lulu but just falls outside my parameters ... retail clothing is an intense and quixotic industry ... lulu has good products that are quite pricey and they are trying to branch into everyday active wear ... along with hundreds of others ... but its a great brand ... i looked at them in the 30's and of course now think i should have jumped but i don't really do much with cyclicals

i think the millennials are spending all their house buying money on wearing their GOOS over their LULU ... :05.18-flustered: and why shouldn't they ?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

You old folks sure are hard on the millennials. The millennials _don't have any money to spend_ -- period. They can't find steady permanent employment or good benefits.


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## lifeliver (Aug 30, 2010)

I am in GOOS from $55.70 a week ago. My reasoning for entering the trade is because the whole sector is pretty strong and also because Goose popularity maybe decreasing in Canada but it is increasing greatly world wide and especially in China. I was using the Google Trend Analytics and you can see the uptrend in Canada Goose google searches over the last few years when you look at the worldwide picture, and when you look at China specifically. The search trend in Canada is down but we are such a small market that it doesnt matter. Also in big cities like Toronto, its mostly the wealthy Chinese that wear the jackets now anyways.

I have a brother in university and he tells me its a bit taboo to wear the goose jackets now for the younger people.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

The great performance of this doesn't just have to do with the specific company or IPO. The entire consumer stock sector is really on fire, and this benefits from it. Something to keep in mind before you read too much into the specific company's prospects. Other stocks in the same sector going up like crazy are (with one year return)

DOO +64%
GC +130%
TOY +59%
TSGI +110%


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

james4beach said:


> You old folks sure are hard on the millennials. The millennials _don't have any money to spend_ -- period. They can't find steady permanent employment or good benefits.


nor did we boomers have money to spend or easy jobs to find when we were the exact age the millenials are now james


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

very interesting to read the early negative posts from the pundits on this thread....


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

FFS - I literally just bought 20 shares of this 2 days ago for $60... I have the best luck! :hopelessness:


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I added some GOOS to my Lowdiv portfolio. I consider this one of the higher risk holdings. Hopefully it will hold up OK if the market continues downward. Entered the position today at 67.64 CAD


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## Brainer (Oct 8, 2015)

In the news a few days ago, there was a report about the Chinese public trying to band together to get people to boycott Canada Goose purchases due to the arrest of Huawei's CEO. I don't know how much that will change things, I'm guessing not much. Take it for whatever it's worth.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Yeah I saw that too. Impossible to know if that would be a factor. It's possible I entered this at the worst possible time, but it will remain to be seen. I strictly do my stock picking at 6 month intervals so once I've bought it, I'm holding it at least until the summer, and will reevaluate then.

I think far more important than a Chinese boycott is the overall mood of the market, and whether we're entering a bear market in stocks.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Brainer said:


> In the news a few days ago, there was a report about the Chinese public trying to band together to get people to boycott Canada Goose purchases due to the arrest of Huawei's CEO. I don't know how much that will change things, I'm guessing not much. Take it for whatever it's worth.


There was also one a few weeks ago about some schools in England banning children wearing luxury brand outerwear to school, including CG, because a few of the poor kids were getting teased by a few of the rich kids in CG coats..


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Well, the GOOS seems to be flying now, so my position is positive... but this is still a very volatile position. No idea how this one will turn out!

http://schrts.co/eyCrGJVj


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

This has weakened pretty dramatically which concerns me, since I considered this my highest risk holding (I was not convinced it's a great stock pick).

The most notable thing I see on the stock charts is some very high volume selling starting in February and continuing through to now. I have a small position any way but if I had a larger position I'd probably lighten up a bit now, perhaps even today's 63.40 could be a good exit point


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan said:


> Yea we bought LULU at 17.47 in non-reg so we are in for the distance. Even we are surprised at its resilience. Total holding is just over $100k.


Total just over $136k after today's bump. Gotta love style!


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Some investors are getting hammered today, wow glad I don't own it.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Catastrophic move today as they announce very poor results. GOOS is down 23% today, ouch.

I took my own advice from my post above, and had liquidated my position at $61.52 along with a note in my trade log that I have abandoned the position due to extraordinarily weak-looking technical price action. At the time I had sold at a low point in the stock and didn't feel great about it, but now it looks like I've gotten lucky.


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