# Europe and the Lost Decade



## Belguy

With very little time left in the year, the S&P/TSX Composite Index has a YTD loss of 11.36% and trending lower. The S&P 500 Index is also now in negative territory with a YTD % change down 3.3%.

In all of my reading and watching, the two statements that I often notice repeating themselves are that the European mess will take at least a decade to solve and possibly much longer and that the period beginning in 2008 will be a lost decade for investors.

All of that may not matter so much to you if you are young with a long time horizon and, in fact, it may afford you many buying opportunities. However, if you are nearing retirement, or already retired, a lost decade or more has a more profound effect.

In the past, I have been accused, many times, of being too negative in my comments but, quite honestly, do any of you see much cause for optimism in the current globalized economy given the debt problems in Europe and America?

Minus those problems, I quite imagine that this would have been a positive year for the markets. However, the current debt problems are going to be with us for several years to come.

What does that mean for you as far as expectations for the markets in the years to come? Do you see any cause for optimism? Despite it taking many years for the world to dig out of the current debt problems, can the markets still rebound any time soon or, are we indeed facing a problem that will take many years to solve and a potentially lost decade for capital appreciation in the equity markets?

In other words, if the markets can't overcome their fear of the debt crisis now, and the debt crisis is going to be with us for many years to come, is there anything to make you believe that the markets will be able to overlook the debt problems in the coming years and provide much in the way of growth opportunities for investors?


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## ddkay

You have to understand deleveraging to understand why "the markets" dive in contagion, it has not to do with investors, it's institutions that are being forced to raise capital and liquidating assets for currency


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## Jungle

Why do they do that?


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## Jungle

Markets can move fast, but for the Toronto Exchange, I'm getting a feeling we may be in a losing year. We need to go up about 1500 points in 6 weeks.


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## Belguy

Market moves for this week:

TSX: DOWN 3.13%
DOW: DOWN 2.94%
S&P 500: DOWN 3.81%
NASDAQ: DOWN 3.97%

Is the downward slide accelerating?

Minimal growth, at best, predicted for the economy going forward.

Advice for investors who believe that the collapse of the Euro is imminent:

"Dig a hole in the ground and hide!!"

http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2011/11/18/372479/deutsche-bank-dig-a-hole-in-the-ground-and-hide/

Also, Morningstar's rating for the mutual fund companies. Note that some of the lowest fee firms received some of the highest ratings:

http://cawidgets.morningstar.ca/ArticleTemplate/ArticleGL.aspx?culture=en-CA&id=447153


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## ddkay

Jungle said:


> Why do they do that?


Why raise capital? Because institutions operate on commercial paper short term funding, raise eyebrows of your creditors, they will stop short term funding, you lose liquidity and collapse over night


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## doctrine

This is why its important to invest in dividend paying companies, which despite all the hype about being the "latest and greatest craze", still offer fantastic yields in many industries. Invest your money at an average of 5% yield over several industries, and if the markets haven't moved in 10 years, you've at least earned 50% and have probably beat inflation.


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## KaeJS

A rally could happen in week ahead...


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## dogcom

People keep mentioning Europe as a big problem but the US isn't much better. Wasn't very long ago and we were only talking about how horrible the situation in the US was and the US dollar was going to zero and so on. Solve the problems in Europe and then the US will be the target again. 

Putting it all together with liquidation as ddkay mentions and an unfavorable demographic situation going forward we can say the stock market does not look like a good place to be. If the Fed and European banks however are able to print enough money to turn the tide then all hard assets and stocks will need to be owned. At this time however Germany has no stomach to go down the Weimar road.


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## sags

A Debt Jubilee is long overdue.

Probably the only way to spur a consumer driven economy, when the consumer is suffocating on debt. Wouldn't that send Republicans over the edge?


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## Belguy

Why do the politicians of such countries such as Italy and Spain and Greece resort to such state welfare tactics? It's to satisfy their populations and try to keep them from once again turning to fascism as they have so many times in the past. 

The begs the question that, if these countries have to now start to cut back on social programs, will it result in the growth of fascism again as their populations start to look for other alternatives?

In other words, everything old could be new again!!??


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## dogleg

Doctrine , I believe , has the right take on how to approach the market. It is always a mistake ,in my view, to ignore the way the market behaves over time. For example if you bought a diversified portfolio in 1906 and cashed it in in 1942 your yield was 0%. From 1942 to 1965 the compounded market return was 11% and from that point with the Dow at 1000 it never went over that for 18 years. Then in 17 years it went to 11000 ! So the market gets hugely overpriced and then flattens out or collapses. Individual investors need to keep in mind that 80% of money in the market is invested by fund managers , insurance companies, pensions , etc. so an individual trying to read the market and make a buck by timing is a mugg's game , I think . As Doctrine advises ,better to depend on good corporate stocks . I'm not sure about ETFs but with mutual funds only about 4% ever beat the S&P index and then only by a small amount. Cheers.


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## m3s

dogcom said:


> People keep mentioning Europe as a big problem but the US isn't much better. Wasn't very long ago and we were only talking about how horrible the situation in the US was and the US dollar was going to zero and so on. Solve the problems in Europe and then the US will be the target again.


This is what I was thinking everytime someone mentions Europe, or Italy etc. It's like the media and everyone else have a 1 track mind. Is Italy is the worst, it's not like the rest of us are that much better. Canadians have more consumer debt than Americans, and if any country causes this economic slowdown and loss of more Canadian jobs and the death of companies like RIM, that debt doesn't just vanish


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## dogleg

Mode ....: I don't know about the figures for 'consumer' debt but our per capita debt evidently is much less than the US, ie about $48k to our $28k . I can't find exact figures for per capita 'consumer' debt which I assume is for items like credit cards, car loans, etc. Do you have this data ? Cheers.


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## Jungle

Lets hope we don't have a major housing price crash anytime soon. That would really slow us down. Or make us go backwards.


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## zylon

*one up on wall street*



doctrine said:


> This is why its important to invest in dividend paying companies, which despite all the hype about being the "latest and greatest craze", still offer fantastic yields in many industries. ...


Good post 

I've been reading Peter Lynch's “_One Up On Wall Street_” where he makes the case that the individual investor should be able to handily beat any broad index; and he also explains why it is deucedly difficult for large mutual funds to do the same.

I found it quite revealing that P Lynch chose individual stocks for both his mother's portfolio and also his mother-in-law; and apparently they did not invest in the fund which he was managing.

So far, I've read four chapters, and I don't have any bone to pick with the author. Unfortunately, the book was written 20 years ago, so his enthusiastic endorsement of owning a home *before* investing in the stock market rings a bit hollow during this dark hour in USA real estate.


> Before you buy a share of anything; there are three personal issues that ought to be addressed: (1) Do I own a house? (2) Do I need the money? and (3) Do I have the personal qualities that will bring me success in stocks? _~One Up On Wall Street_


 I wonder if the author has had a change of opinion, concerning point number one, considering the events of the past decade.

I highly recommend that everyone, regardless of investing experience, get this book from the library. It's possible that I wouldn't have paid much attention to what P Lynch has to say, had I read the book before venturing into the markets; but now that I've made pretty well every mistake that he writes about, I find that I'm hanging onto every word.


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## Jon_Snow

As a property owner, is it wrong that I am kinda hoping for a real estate crash?


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## avrex

zylon said:


> ... so his enthusiastic endorsement of owning a home *before* investing in the stock market rings a bit hollow during this dark hour in USA real estate.


I haven't read the book, but is it possible that he's referring to idea that you should be out of debt (i.e. the home should be paid off), before investing in the stock market.

For example, here in Canada, imho I believe that investors shouldn't even open a non-registered trading account, until they've paid off their home and debt.


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## m3s

dogleg said:


> Mode ....: I don't know about the figures for 'consumer' debt but our per capita debt evidently is much less than the US, ie about $48k to our $28k . I can't find exact figures for per capita 'consumer' debt which I assume is for items like credit cards, car loans, etc. Do you have this data ? Cheers.


I can't find consumer debt stats either, but our per capita debt is certainly higher (half of which is consumer debt). While holding ourselves high and mighty, we have complacently surpassed Americans in just about every kind of debt, and yet we somehow think we are immune to the debt crisis? I would't be surprised if our average consumer debt surpasses Americans very soon as well:

Canadian Debt (USA in brackets)
Average household debt per family $177k (USA $148k)
Government debt Canada 65% GDP (USA 59% GDP) Canada is +80% according the IMF!
Credit card debt per consumer $3500 (USA $4000) 
Student debt per student (hard to compare as I can't find data of personal student loans)
LOC per Cdn consumer $35k!! (not sure about USA)
Car loans per consumer $16k
28 personal bankruptcies per 10,000 people (48 in the USA) thanks to our RE market no doubt

Median cost of a home $372k ($202k in the USA) and UK $371k CAD

Have Canadian Consumers Reached Their Limits?

Sure we're slightly "better off" but in this global market we rely heavily on everyone else. It's not like we don't have a debt problem, ours just isn't "as bad" Our debt is still growing faster than our income


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## zylon

avrex said:


> I haven't read the book, but is it possible that he's referring to idea that you should be out of debt (i.e. the home should be paid off), before investing in the stock market. ...


No, the way I interpret his ideas on owning a home before investing in the stock markets, is that he thinks home ownership is an excellent investment; keeping in mind that he's talking from the USA perspective.

Some points he makes:
you buy a house on margin; say, 20% down
even if the house drops in value, you won't get a margin call (unlike stocks bought on margin)
interest on the loan is tax deductible (USA)
federal tax deduction on property tax (I didn't know that)
house is a hedge against inflation
you can roll proceeds of sale into another purchase tax free (again, unlike stocks)
after the children have moved away, you can revert to a smaller house, making a decent profit in the transition. He writes,_ “This windfall isn't taxed, because the government in its compassion gives you a once-in-a-lifetime house windfall exemption. That never happens in stocks, which are taxed as frequently and as heavily as possible”._
you likely won't be scared out of your house by reading alarming headlines, as you might be inclined to do with falling stock markets (ie: nesting with the dust bunnies under the bed)
houses are owned on average 7 years; whereas 87% of stocks change hands every year

Remember, this was written 20 years ago.


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## doctrine

I have read the book, but don't necessarily agree with having to own real estate. It would make sense for someone buying a house right now in the USA, should definitely pay it off, since they may be getting it at a 50-75% discount from just 4 years ago. And the tax deduction also makes it very advantageous. Someone in Canada, on the other hand, probably should hold off. The average house price in the US is something like half or less that in Canada, despite Americans still being more productive and having higher incomes.

[edit] That being said, I like Peter Lynch's style, especially his points about buying companies that have boring names, are in boring industries, and that do not have significant institutional ownership (mid/small cap). Although it is hard to find small/mid caps with solid dividend paying histories.


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## dogcom

You make a good point about the media mode3sour and once everybody else gets it together then Canadian debt will stick out.

On house prices in Canada they do seem to high now but it does make good sense to pay off a house first if possible. Then you can set your sights on building up a stock portfolio.


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## dogleg

Lynch's older book gives almost the identical advice offered by Phil Town in his book "Payback Time" . Maybe Lynch was his inspiration . I'm impressed by the common sense of the posters on this thread unlike the thread I started a month or so ago on Suncor . It was taken over by 'investor opinions' right out of "One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest". Cheers.


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## Belguy

I watched a discussion of the economic situation in California the other night. California has a budget deficit not that much different than Greece. They have a bloated public sector which the taxpayers can not longer afford. They also can no longer afford to pay for the public sector pensions. Already, they have the most generous welfare benefits and highest taxes in the U.S. Most people have not been paying close enough attention to the situation and have no idea how bad it is. Nobody seems to be coming up with any solutions but, like elsewhere, just keep kicking the can down the road.

If California ends up going under, it will take the entire U.S. down with it!!

As goes the Golden State, so goes the nation.

Stay tuned.


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## sags

It's like watching a multi-car pileup in slow motion. 

_Screech_.... Greece......... _boom_.......Italy...... _crash_.......States....... _pow_......Spain ......._crunch_.........France......... _Kaboom_.........US............

The stock markets are a guy in the middle of the road, ignoring the crashing all around him, calmly eating his ice cream, oblivious to what is likely going to happen to him.


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## sags

Awhile ago, there was a guy on BNN, who had won an award for fund manager of the decade or something. 

He went on and on about how the stock market had fallen and prices were cheap.....good enty point.......blah...blah...blah.

Near the end of the show, Michael Hainsworth asked him......"then, why are you piling a lot of cash into Government bonds"?

The guy was a little taken aback by the question and stalled for time........"Oh, do you mean MY fund"? Well, I have to protect MY investors".

The next day, BNN had a roundtable discussion, and the topic was brought up by the anchors that viewers should be aware that guests on the show are basically selling something, and people should take the advice they give accordingly.

I wondered if this guy's comments created a bit of a stir............

The point being.......while a lot of the fund managers are recommending buying stocks and staying in the markets.........some are long gone already.


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## dogleg

Sags: Your post is a perfect point to keep in mind every time you hear people like Kevin O'Leary flogging his mutual funds on his daily CBC program with Amanda Lang. He keeps repeating, ".. It's all about money..". Yes it is ,taking yours and keeping it for himself! They can soon just tape his part of the show and rerun it : he says the same thing every day - unions are evil, politicians are bozos , the poor deserve what they get, intellectuals like Chris Hedges are left-wing nut cases , etc. etc. etc. A perfect panelist for those who find Don Cherry too intellectual.


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## Belguy

The various news agencies are reporting tonight that the U.S. Congressional Super Committee is on the brink of a super failure to reach any kind of agreement or consensus. This just proves once again that Congress is broken. They are, in effect, just kicking the can down the road again (still!) until automatic budget cuts take place but not until 2013. This is just more ongoing long term uncertainty for the markets which do not react well to uncertainty. After the election next year, Congress could decide to reverse those cuts and the markets will then react more negatively.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, was on 60 Minutes tonight and stated the obvious which was that there is high unemployment in many countries since 2008 along with no growth and rising social unrest. The world financial markets are in disarray because there is no certainty out there. In fact, there is the exact opposite--huge uncertainty. She stated that "the dark clouds are gathering" and that "not nearly enough is being done" to establish more rules and regulations in the banking system.

Spain threw out the socialists and voted in a Conservative government to try to turn that ship around. At least that is another sign that SOME action is being taken along with the recent changes in Greece and Italy. Maybe there is hope for functioning governments in those countries even if the U.S. is one hopeless cause when it comes to politicians there being able to get anything done.

The markets may drop again this week or much of this may already be priced in but can anyone predict any long term positive trends for the markets in the face of all of this uncertainty?

A decade of uncertainty and a potential downward spiral:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-a-lost-decade-of-joblessness/article2242792/


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## doctrine

"buy" - he owns it and wants the price to go higher so he can sell
"hold" - the stock is going down and he's already sold it
"sell" - the company is going down the tubes, but you've probably already lost 50% or more of your money so thanks for the newsflash


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## ddkay

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jF-v_MAIFl8


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## dubmac

Belguy...
I share your concern on the global financial woes - this recession doesn't feel as bad as the one in 1991 because - simply put - I have a job this time! I didn't in 1991 - it was lost when the compant went under. 

Have a look at the graph at link below - the graph doesn't suggest that the worse is over - but it does show the depth of the job losses, with the prospect maybe things will get better in 4-5 yrs.


http://www.good.is/post/our-current-recession-in-context/


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## Belguy

I do believe that we are three years into the current severe recession that could last a decade or more.

I have no idea what that will mean for the markets but, back in 2008, I was down over 40 per cent in my portfolio despite support from my bond and precious metals funds to partially offset the general equity losses. However, currently there is not the same amount of support from either bonds or precious metals and so the equity losses could ultimately be worse going forward.

Up until now, the consensus seemed to be that the current situation was not nearly as bad as in 2008 that led to the Lehman collapse. However, now I am starting to hear that the current situation is worse than in 2008.

I don't really know how it came to this or what could have been done to avoid it but we are where we are!!

If you haven't already read it, the story of Heidi's bar in Detroit may help you to understand the mess that we are in.

http://www.xerraireart.com/blog/2009/07/26/heidis-bar-in-detroit/


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## ddkay

Starting to hear? I said that in June.. but people only hear what like want to hear when they are emotionally invested


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## dubmac

what happens now?

that is..what happens now that the debt sub-committee in the US gov't failed in getting a consensus on how to tackle the debt problem. I heard something about "automatic cuts to spending starting in 2013" which, although the joblessness will continue, that at least "something" is getting done to reduce debt...


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## zylon

*Nigel Farage*

Quick ... somebody clone this dude!

How dare you tell the Italian and Greek people what to do !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULns-cSUeVs


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## sags

I think the general consenus is that before the cuts begin in 2013, the Republicans will want to "discuss" future military cuts, and the Democrats will want to "discuss" entitlements cuts.

So, a Super Duper Debt Scooper Committee will be formed, to spend a bi-partisan month in a mountain resort, where they will learn the art of zen, flexibility yoga classes, and spend their evenings performing native dances and singing old campfire songs.

After copious marijuana usage, they will announce the following press release:

_Dudes..........like...........chill out. 

That debt thingy has all been worked out.

We decided not to worry about it so much. Life is too short. 

Peace out._

Market analysts and fund managers will pour over the statement, noting the brevity of the message and the fact that it contains more positive words than negative words. They will be pleased that the "tone" of the release is positive, and words such as "peace" are comforting signals.

The markets will rally and the crisis will be over.


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## m3s

Hahaha he's hilarious!

Europe could probably learn something from the Germans though. Somehow they are leading environmentally and financially, while they have universal health care and public funded university to boot. If you look at them objectively, instead of emotionally, they somehow accomplish what most governments today claim is impossible


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## Belguy

Despite the Super Committee's failure, the core problem is still Europe. Overall, there is now a scenario of total uncertainty for the world's financial markets. The Europeans may finally act when the bank runs start and investors begin to get wiped out. According to Cramer, there is now a 50/50 chance that some European banks will collapse and something like ten trillion dollars (or was it Euros?) will be lost by investors. He claims that, over the past few days that "the odds are dramatically shifting towards calamity" and that it's "time to up your defensive plays" and, by all means, "stay away from financials". He advises that "now is not the time to buy equities as there are just too many fluid negatives". He feels that "Europe is on the march into a severe recession" and that the situation there is "an unfolding disaster". The world is spinning into a credit crisis and "the worst could be coming" now that the U.S. has begun "sleeping with the PIIGS". Ultimately there will be either a resolution to all of this or a catastrophe followed by years of austerity and substantial economic weakness.

As for the Germans, they have 1923 on their minds!!


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## KaeJS

1. That video was entertaining

2. The below is an understatement. Europe can learn *A LOT* from the Germans.



mode3sour said:


> Europe could *probably learn something* from the Germans though.


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## sags

We could learn a lot from the Germans as well.

Their education program for streaming kids into higher education or skilled trades for example.

And on debt, a few years ago I registered some German .de website names.

One of them was cashadvance.de

If it were cashadvance.com............I would be typing this from my yacht, but alas it garnered absolutely no viewer or buyer interest and I eventually let it go. I learned the Germans don't use credit cards.......and find it odd that we do. They save for what they want.


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## londoncalling

sags said:


> We could learn a lot from the Germans as well.
> 
> I learned the Germans don't use credit cards.......and find it odd that we do. They save for what they want.


What a noble concept! I wonder how they stumbled upon such an elaborate financial plan?


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## andrewf

German higher education is actually one of the areas where it is believed they trail other countries.

There is nothing wrong with using credit cards. I use them because I am paying the interchange fees (credit card tax) so I might as well get some value out of it in terms of points, fraud protection, some insurance, etc. I, like I'm sure most people here, pay it off in full every month. Why is this such a horrible idea?


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## KaeJS

andrewf said:


> Why is this such a horrible idea?


It's not. It's a beautiful idea.

I get about $125/year from my TD Rebate Rewards Visa. Always right after Christmas for the month of January. Perfect timing.


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## Argonaut

KaeJS said:


> It's not. It's a beautiful idea.
> 
> I get about $125/year from my TD Rebate Rewards Visa. Always right after Christmas for the month of January. Perfect timing.


Agreed, I have the Rebate too. Hopefully with the MBNA purchase we'll have some even better cashback Mastercards.


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## londoncalling

I also have credit cards (both a Visa and MC). Almost all my purchases are made in this manner with the balance paid almost immediately after purchases. Doing this increases my net worth either through cash or rewards. I usually get my flights, car rentals and hotels for free with these programs. As a result I holiday (and more frequently I might add than if I were to pay for it out of pocket) for next to nothing. However, the bulk of the population do not pay the balance in full and opt to pay the minimum. In so doing the principal balance balloons with high interest rates. Paying the balance down in this manner can take an eternity with this method of financing.


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## sensfan15

Visa and MC do not like customers like us. Were the leeches


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## Jungle

Maybe, but every time we swipe the card it cost the merchant 1-4%. They make lots of money from that. Just look at the P/Es for MC and V. Investor's willing to pay good money for those companies. They are not even really responsible for the debt, they just run the network.


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## Belguy

Final warning!! The European debt crisis is unstoppable and we are now moving quickly towards a calamity and nothing is going to stop it. I have been warning of this all along and have been called a merchant of fear all along. I have warned that God himself could not solve this problem and my worst fears are coming true. How bad is this? It is as bad as it can get!!!!!!!


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## ddkay

Hahaa Belguy, merchant of fear. You're cracking me up. The only reason every plain will fail is because humans almost always act in their own self-interest, and that is inherently destructive.


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## andrewf

Our local soothsayer. Whatever happened to buy, hold and propser ?

I'm not saying I entirely disagree, Belguy. On the other hand, I'm not running around with my hair on fire.


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## Robillard

Belguy said:


> How bad is this? It is as bad as it can get!!!!!!!


Oh, I'm sure it could get much much worse. A break-up of the euro currency area would be terrible, but no one is talking about going to war, or proscribing hedgefund managers. At the end of the day, the crisis is all about claims on assets, which is unfortunately mucking up things for the real economy. Europe still has extensive well-developed capital infrastructure, an educated population, and excellent connections to the world economy. The debt crisis may be stopping European countries from making the best use of these, but they aren't going away.


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## ddkay

No one talking about war? Actually, Russia May Target U.S. Missile Defense Sites

We are cancer to this planet, I'm almost sorry for being here...


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## Toronto.gal

andrewf said:


> I'm not saying I entirely disagree, Belguy. On the other hand, I'm not running around with my hair on fire.


Neither is Belguy; he just hides under the bed waiting for prosperity.


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## Causalien

Robillard said:


> Oh, I'm sure it could get much much worse. A break-up of the euro currency area would be terrible, but no one is talking about going to war, or proscribing hedgefund managers. At the end of the day, the crisis is all about claims on assets, which is unfortunately mucking up things for the real economy. Europe still has extensive well-developed capital infrastructure, an educated population, and excellent connections to the world economy. The debt crisis may be stopping European countries from making the best use of these, but they aren't going away.


My circle of investment buddies ARE talking about the different ways this can lead to war and we are just small fries compared to the hundred trillion dollar market. The historical precedence of this is the great depression. I don't want the world to burn, but I would not rule out war just because I want to be prepared.


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## Cal

Belguy said:


> Final warning!! The European debt crisis is unstoppable and we are now moving quickly towards a calamity and nothing is going to stop it. I have been warning of this all along and have been called a merchant of fear all along. I have warned that God himself could not solve this problem and my worst fears are coming true. How bad is this? It is as bad as it can get!!!!!!!


Ahhh....I get it. You sold out of equities awile ago, and that is why you are so relaxed during all of this debt mess.

You just hang around here to watch us all panic. 

The more !!!! and  you put in your posts is my notification to keep buying. 



You are entertaining, I will definitely give you that. I know that your posts are a little over exaggerated, and I take them with a grain of salt, just like everyone else's posts. I hope you do the same with us bugging you over it.


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## Belguy

I have sold NOTHING!! I belong to the 'Church of the Buy-and-Holders' and therefore it is against my religion to sell.

Members of our church are willing to go down with the ship!!!


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## marina628

I am not selling any stocks but playing some forex games with CAN/USD to get extra couple points .


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## Causalien

What a mess.

Russia enters into the Iran problem. We are, unfortunately, another step closer to war.


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## Belguy

Mankind just cannot seem to avoid major wars. Hopefully, help will arrive one day from outer space to set us straight. I thought that Russia was now on our side but they show little signs of that. Ditto for China!!

From the Toronto Star:

"The eurozone debt crisis hit a milestone Wednesday with the first signs that the creeping ailment has struck Germany. That sent a jolt to the heart of the troubled region. We are watching a calamity ravage the world economy. And it's like watching this in slow-motion. It's not looking good."

I would be interested in hearing the opinions of some of the glass-half-full optimists out there as to how this is likely to play out in the best case scenario.


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## Causalien

Correction, Russia was fuming about Syria not Iran. Same reason though.

The opium wars and the 8 nation alliance incidents are hammered into every Chinese Citizen's upbringing starting from primary school. It is what shapes China's policy today.

For Russia, I doubt they can forget about the cold war that soon.


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## ddkay

Hungary just got junked by Moody's, ES went to 1153


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## Belguy

*When and How Do We Get Out of This Mess?*

Amid the increasing carnage, I am looking for any and all causes of optimism. How and when can we reverse the market losses? Might, for example, we have to wait until the middle of next year by which time Germany may really start feeling the bite of the credit crisis, before they start to take decisive action? What kind of toll will several more months of inaction or indecision, on the part of key European politicians, take on world markets? How low might they go before finally reversing direction?

Since I am very pessimistic about all of this, I would be particularly interested in hearing from anyone out there who has any degree of optimism that things will be better a year from now.

What say you?


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## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> What say you?


I say that I have a huge amount of margin to cover before I get stomped out of the market, so I am just as scared. 

Belguy, why don't you ever hedge?

Why don't you buy something against the market, or short something? Give yourself some peace of mind, you know?


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## Belguy

I don't do any of those fancy things because I don't have that much of an interest. All that I ever wanted to do was to buy and hold index products and make a decent long term return.

Unfortunately, the bank bigwigs and the European yokels have seen to it that that isn't going to happen in this lifetime at least.


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## Lephturn

Belguy said:


> I don't do any of those fancy things because I don't have that much of an interest. All that I ever wanted to do was to buy and hold index products and make a decent long term return.
> 
> Unfortunately, the bank bigwigs and the European yokels have seen to it that that isn't going to happen in this lifetime at least.


Oh Belguy... you are the "buy and hope" poster child.

For all the time you spend hand-wringing about getting smoked in the markets you could have learned how to buy a few puts.


----------



## jcgd

Belguy said:


> I don't do any of those fancy things because I don't have that much of an interest. All that I ever wanted to do was to buy and hold index products and make a decent long term return.


If that's the case then it's a moot point what you feel about the market because you'll just sit on it like you've always done. Because you are a buy and hold investor you will just sit tight and wait it out like you know you should. When will things turn around? Who knows? And as a buy and hold investor, who cares? Unless you need your money soon (which if you do it's crap luck and you'll have to keep working) this fiasco is a chance to make some $$$.

Belguy, I have to say... your sarcastic posts I quite enjoy and find entertaining, but the serious doom gloom posts are downright alarming.  It's not the end of the world!


----------



## KaeJS

jcgd said:


> Unless you need your money soon (which if you do it's crap luck and you'll have to keep working) this fiasco is a chance to make some $$$.
> 
> Belguy, I have to say... your sarcastic posts I quite enjoy and find entertaining, but the serious doom gloom posts are downright alarming.  It's not the end of the world!


It's a big deal for Belguy because he _does_ need his money soon.

He should not even be this heavily weighted in equities in the first place, but now he is stuck.

He should have had his Equity and Fixed Income portions switched in his Asset Allocation Model. Which, I assume he will be doing as soon as Equities rally (whenever that is).


----------



## jcgd

If I was in that position I would seriously have to consider putting off retirement and try to get some extra money in there when it's really down so come out even better on the other side.

It's an unfortunate position to be in, for sure.


----------



## kcowan

KaeJS said:


> He should have had his Equity and Fixed Income portions switched in his Asset Allocation Model. Which, I assume he will be doing as soon as Equities rally (whenever that is).


No as a couch potato investor, he will re-allocate at year-end regardless of what the markets are doing. It is this systematic rebalancing that lets passive investing succeed.
(Sell winners, buy losers, rinse and repeat! The theory is that this will force profit-taking while buying underpriced market segments.)


----------



## KaeJS

kc,

I understand that, but is Belguy not retired?

This should have been done last year, or the year before that, or maybe even the one before that.

The dynamic asset allocation theory only works to its fullest potential when the asset allocation is not changed, and it should be done when one asset allocation gets out of hand by about 5%, not quarterly or yearly.


----------



## Belguy

I do perform an annual rebalancing!

Also, I am 68 and long ago retired.

Agreed that I should not be invested 60 per cent in equities. Hindsight is always 50/50! I stayed with my asset allocation figuring what's the worst that could happen? Well, I'm finding out!!

Is that actually some green that I am seeing on the market boards today--so far at least!!! Nah, couldn't be!!

But, there is good reason to be scared!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...e-is-good-reason-to-be-scared/article2248979/

The ONLY hope that I can see is that over the next few months, things will get so bad in Germany that they will ultimately do what they have to do out of sheer panic and fear. In the meantime, who knows what carnage will be done to world markets!! What a ride! Hold on tight. It's going to be interesting. The markets could have a long way to go down yet!!

I'll see you in the soup line!! What kind of soup do they serve anyway??

By the way, I am now posting my concerns here on my own thread and so, those that would prefer not to read them can just bypass this thread entirely.


----------



## kcowan

KaeJS said:


> kc,
> 
> I understand that, but is Belguy not retired?
> 
> This should have been done last year, or the year before that, or maybe even the one before that.
> 
> The dynamic asset allocation theory only works to its fullest potential when the asset allocation is not changed, and it should be done when one asset allocation gets out of hand by about 5%, not quarterly or yearly.


My understanding is that the high equity % is because there is little reliance on income in the current year owing to CPP/OAS, so after a little topup, it is all for luxuries/inheritance!


----------



## Belguy

This problem is unsolvable and Europe is doomed!! Hang on to your investment account while you still have one. North American index investors have lost another 3 to 5 per cent in just the past week!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-zone-struggles-to-stay-alive/article2248961/


----------



## humble_pie

very dear belguy,

i am just wondering if you have ever been to europe.

and whether you speak any of its languages.

(signed)
curious crumb


----------



## Belguy

I have never been to Europe but I do speak one of the languages---

English!!

Also, confidence in the world's economy is decreasing.

Markets are ALL about confidence!

In a survey by the CBC, 80 per cent of respondents now say that Canada can't avoid an imminent recession.


----------



## andrewf

I have to admit that any glimmer of hope that Europe would be able to work through its problems has vanished for me. I'm not quite sure how long it will take to come to a head, but it seems inevitable at this point. I'm expecting another demand shock similar in magnitude to 2008, perhaps greater.

Nothing much to do at this point but to watch and wait. Hopefully Canada makes it through this episode in roughly as good shape as 2008.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> Nothing much to do at this point but to watch and wait. Hopefully Canada makes it through this episode in roughly as good shape as 2008.


But what can do investors who is already in markets with index ETFs, financials, blue chip etc? Take the losses and run out of market? Sit tight and wait? ...............................


----------



## sensfan15

Why would you run out of the market? You shouldn't be in it if you can't handle volatility. If you have many years until retirement there is no need sell your current losing positions.


----------



## Miser

In short.....Short!


----------



## Belguy

When the Germans really start to feel the pain, then maybe they will take some of the drastic actions necessary.

My concern now is how long will that take--weeks or months?

It's pretty much up to the Germans to bail out Europe!! Ironic, isn't it!!

Right now, there isn't the political will to do that but it will come in time when the pain for the average German voter starts to bite.

---The lost decade!!!

Corporate bonds and defensive stocks are the best places to hide.


----------



## andrewf

I sold my equity ETFs at the beginning of Sept... almost sold at the beginning of Aug.


----------



## humble_pie

belguy why don't you get up from underneath your bed, dust yourself off, pack a few things & fly to Paris.

the City of Light is beautiful this time of year. Very few tourists. All the museums & monuments are open, many decorated already for christmas.

street vendors selling hot roasted chestnuts from rusty antique steel ovens on wheels. Brightly-lit markets in the tiny squares at intersections doing a rip-roaring business at 9 pm. Pretty girls with modigliani eyes dressed to face winter in nothing but mohair sweaters & mini-skirts flitting by (warm-blooded french women always seem impervious to cold weather.)

and if you've never tasted a real truffle, now is the perfect moment. They've only just been dug up, in time to make all the special truffled delights for christmas, except that by christmastime the matchless earthy edge will have somewhat disappeared from the flavour. Right now, as the first truffled surprises begin to appear in restaurant & charcuterie, is the divine, ineffable truffle instant.

btw england is not a member of the european union & never at any time in its history considered itself part of europe, so knowing english doesn't count.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Yes. Belgirl should slap you across the face and tell you to pull yourself together man.

You seem quite worried and although the world has problems they are not insurmountable. We will get through this provided the world doesn't completely lose its mind...and I agree, that latter part cannot be totally discounted. In my experience, however, investors eventually calm down and start gravitating to the enormous bargains that result from these types of world events, problems get fixed and life goes on.


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> German higher education is actually one of the areas where it is believed they trail other countries.
> 
> There is nothing wrong with using credit cards. I use them because I am paying the interchange fees (credit card tax) so I might as well get some value out of it in terms of points, fraud protection, some insurance, etc. I, like I'm sure most people here, pay it off in full every month. Why is this such a horrible idea?


That's funny, because they seem to produce/innovate a lot more than Canada. They are known for engineering, who really cares how "academic" their "higher education" really is? Our universities put students in huge debt who have little hope of using it for anything unlike the Germans. But yes, our universities are more "academics"

There is something wrong with using credit cards for everything and it's called merchant fees. Rewards are less than these fees especially if you are a frugal shopper. They make a lot more profit an they reward back in features


----------



## Homerhomer

mode3sour said:


> That's funny, because they seem to produce/innovate a lot more than Canada.


Cuban education is at a pretty good level as well, so was the education in the eastern Europe under communism, the level of education doesn't seem to matter when it comes to productivity and innovation.


----------



## andrewf

mode3sour said:


> T
> There is something wrong with using credit cards for everything and it's called merchant fees. Rewards are less than these fees especially if you are a frugal shopper. They make a lot more profit an they reward back in features


You're paying those whether you use credit cards or not. Any merchant that offers a cash/debot discount is paid in cash, but they are few and far between.


----------



## Spudd

humble_pie said:


> btw england is not a member of the european union & never at any time in its history considered itself part of europe, so knowing english doesn't count.


Sorry, but the UK (which includes England) is part of the European Union. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_state_of_the_European_Union


----------



## dubmac

Some of what I see on this thread makes the movie "The Road" look like a Disney classic. I mean, I know that the market has been dropping etc, but there is too much doom and gloom. Below is an exerpt from a Financial Advisor whose name I will keep unpublished - otherthan - the author works for a high net clients accounts in one of the big six Cdn Banks. 

I don't expect this to dispel all of the anxiety - but is doesnt hurt to have another, less catastrophic view of matters finacial.

*Where are Financial Markets Headed?*

Barring a bank crisis in Europe, the economic data we have seen points to continued growth.If there is a European fiscal crisis that causes a European banking crisis, the financial environment would be like late 2008. There would be a big drop in equities and commodities, a rally in bonds a shift to cash and strength in the U.S. dollar. If the U.S. government cannot make progress on fiscal challenges, the impact will be more muted, but there is a risk of increased market fears of the economy faltering and possibility of another downgrade to U.S. sovereign credit rating.

However if Europe and the U.S. can show decisive leadership there is a huge upside potential for the economy and financial markets. Reduced consumer and business confidence is currently constraining economic growth. *Non-financial corporations are currently sitting on record levels of cash.* If these funds were put to work they could create investment and jobs. They would also fuel a strong rally in equities and lead to higher bond yields.

*Neither of the extreme outcomes is the most likely*. Europe is expected to muddle along with the constant feeding of a financial crisis motivating politicians to do what is necessary to avoid financial Armageddon. The U.S political system will come up with some fiscal rebalancing but not a grand deal that fully addresses the long-term challenges. And while growth has bounced back in the second half of 2011, it is likely to remain modest in the advanced world.


----------



## Belguy

I have zero confidence in the European politicians whose main motive is to get reelected. They will only take the required action when the situation becomes dire and that may take a matter of weeks or months. In the meantime, who is betting on the markets rising? If you count yourself as an optimist, would you be prepared to wager your house that the markets will be up over the next six months?

I didn't think so!!


----------



## dogcom

You can't really blame politicians for wanting to go to the cliff edge before acting. If you act sooner you are blamed for everything but if you go to the cliff then you can say that you had no choice.


----------



## Belguy

Exactly!!! It's all in the hands of the politicians. God help us all!!

Earlier, I suggested that it might be a good time to invest in corporate bonds. Of course, I meant high quality, investment grade corporates along with equities in the more defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and health care although the latter is a little suspect with the pending across the board cuts in U.S. government spending which is scheduled to kick in in 2013.

---Buy, hold, and lose your shirt!!


----------



## larry81

*Germany, France plan quick new Stability Pact: report*


> German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are planning more drastic means - including a quick new Stability Pact - to fight the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, Welt am Sonntag reported on Sunday.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/27/us-eurozone-integration-ecb-idUSTRE7AQ00F20111127


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> You're paying those whether you use credit cards or not. Any merchant that offers a cash/debot discount is paid in cash, but they are few and far between.


And you'll pay for all the fools who overextend themselves one way or another, while the CC CEOs make off with a killing. The merchant fees outweigh rewards even if you are oblivious to those fools, you're blinded by the marketing. Germans don't use credit cards, they use cash and debit, as most stores won't accept CCs because of the fees.


----------



## Spudd

mode3sour said:


> And you'll pay for all the fools who overextend themselves one way or another, while the CC CEOs make off with a killing. The merchant fees outweigh rewards even if you are oblivious to those fools, you're blinded by the marketing. Germans don't use credit cards, they use cash and debit, as most stores won't accept CCs because of the fees.


I don't see how this makes sense. Me stopping using CC's because of the fees won't change the fact that CC's are a strong part of our retail environment here, and everyone else will continue to use them. So since the retailers will continue paying fees I might as well pick up the rewards.


----------



## kcowan

Spudd said:


> I don't see how this makes sense. Me stopping using CC's because of the fees won't change the fact that CC's are a strong part of our retail environment here, and everyone else will continue to use them. So since the retailers will continue paying fees I might as well pick up the rewards.


If half their clients use cash or debit, their average discount rate will drop from 4% to 2% and this should show up in lower prices eventually. As long as everyone believes that using CCs costs nothing, the banks will continue to rip us all off.

This only seems to be the case in Canada/US because the card companies demand it. We get a discount for cash in Mexico (usually 5%), and in Europe there is often a discount for cash.


----------



## kcowan

dubmac-advisor said:


> *Neither of the extreme outcomes is the most likely*. Europe is expected to muddle along with the constant feeding of a financial crisis motivating politicians to do what is necessary to avoid financial Armageddon. The U.S political system will come up with some fiscal rebalancing but not a grand deal that fully addresses the long-term challenges. And while growth has bounced back in the second half of 2011, it is likely to remain modest in the advanced world.


Right IOW, it is going continue to be bad. Also if companies are sitting on unprecedented cash, should individuals not do the same?


----------



## m3s

Spudd said:


> I don't see how this makes sense. Me stopping using CC's because of the fees won't change the fact that CC's are a strong part of our retail environment here, and everyone else will continue to use them. So since the retailers will continue paying fees I might as well pick up the rewards.


We're witnessing a global debt crisis and you can't fathom how consumers could possibly stop using CCs?? Talk about brain washing the sheep

Retailers are even complaining about how much profit the CCs skim off. 5% on every transaction is quite a bit when we complain about MERs and currency exchange on this site


----------



## humble_pie

hey larry & ddkay, certainly appreciate those last-minute updates on merkel/sarcozy negotiations.

mode please tell us what they're saying on the streets & in the beer-houses in germany.


----------



## Belguy

German voters will not be in favour of bailing out their southern European welfare cousins until they start to feel real pain themselves. That may take a while, but it will come.

We are three years into a lost decade. Since markets start to turn around midway through most such crises, we have perhaps two more years of negative returns until there is the potential of a more positive trend in the markets.

You youngsters out there ought to be handle that, with your long timelines but, speaking as an older, retired geezer, I had hoped for better in my withdrawing years.

Lesson learned: Don't keep money in equities that you plan to use in the next five years--at least.

I guess, as I think about it, I can actually effect a INCREASE in my equity allocation by just selling some bond investments, as I need cash, until the markets turn around. Thank goodness for bonds at times like this!!

Does that make any sense?


----------



## m3s

humble, the German streets are currently filled with festive people sipping "blue wine" eating bratwurst and talking about anything but the economy.. in the beer-houses they are intensely glued to the local soccer matches. I'm actually rooming with a Greek and hang out with several Italians who felt economic cut backs long ago, and they all blame the EU. It sounds similar to when we signed the free trade agreement with the US and then got ripped off except far worse. Many EU rules we apparently imposed that restricted their exports and forced them to import etc. Now all the southern Europeans are migrating north for jobs, while the northern Europeans buy up all the assets in the south


----------



## andrewf

I'd be in favour of government regulation capping interchange fees to perhaps 1 or 1.5% (the max that I think is reasonable). This is a prisoners dilemma. I pay the interchange fee regardless of what I do, so I use my CC and get points. That is the nash equilibrium. The best outcome for all the participants would be for no one to use CC and have prices fall by the interchange fee. We won't get there without outside intervention.


----------



## gibor365

8:20 AM La Stampa reports the IMF is considering loaning Italy up to €600B to give Mario Monti's new government a 12-18 month window with which to push through fiscal reforms. As this would put a strain on IMF resources, the report suggests assistance from the ECB
http://www.lastampa.it/_web/cmstp/t...rica/grubrica.asp?ID_blog=43&ID_articolo=2264


----------



## ddkay

That's old news, it's the same agreement from the Cannes G20 a few weeks ago. Bundesbank rejected it because they didn't want to accept any credit risk on their balance sheet. Positive rumours are starting again though, that's good...

Any solution that requires EFSF issuing bonds or existence of private bidders for bonds is going to fail.


----------



## Belguy

I am waiting for Canadian and U.S. taxpayers to come to Europe's aid via help from the IMF. Then, we will know first hand how the Germans feel!!

Last week, was the worst Thanksgiving week for the U.S. markets since 1942 and we were there!!

Americans spent 11.4 Billion dollars in the stores on Black Friday which is an all-time record and so they can't all have their savings in the stock market!!

One analyst claims that the pent up demand was a result of 'frugal fatigue' where the folks are just getting tired of all of the economic gloom out there and just wanted to let loose a bit.

Will the coming week be the worst post U.S. Thanksgiving for the the markets since 1942? Why should we stop going down now?

Damn Europeans!! I wonder where we'd be today were it not for the mess over there!!!

Globalization--bah, humbug!!!

Also, common mistakes of investors--does any of it sound familiar?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ors/article2250347/singlepage/#articlecontent


----------



## ddkay

Considering nearly all our growth has come from globalization, probably nowhere


----------



## m3s

Belguy said:


> Damn Europeans!! I wonder where we'd be today were it not for the mess over there!!!


Oh, I didn't know you were a Native American? Or were you referring to the War in Europe, which made America the economic power it is?

Capitalism is very poor management of resources and wealth, and this is what we're just starting to see. A system where someone always profits from problems can only lead to one thing


----------



## hboy43

mode3sour said:


> Capitalism is very poor management of resources and wealth, and this is what we're just starting to see. A system where someone always profits from problems can only lead to one thing


A take on Churchill comes to mind.

Capitalism is the worst system for the management of resources and wealth ... except for all the others. 

hboy43


----------



## Homerhomer

mode3sour said:


> Capitalism is very poor management of resources and wealth, and this is what we're just starting to see. A system where someone always profits from problems can only lead to one thing


I have lived through other systems, while capitalism may be poor system it is still the best available, in practise anything else has proven to be much worse.


----------



## Belguy

Europe in recession:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15915627


----------



## Toronto.gal

Homerhomer said:


> while capitalism may be poor system it is still the best available, in practise anything else has proven to be much worse.


Not a perfect system for sure, but neither a poor one. 

I'm a capitalist but don't consider myself an exploiter. I don't hear many people complain about all the conveniences they have; how many billions were spent the past 4 days buying some of these modern day conveniences that people so love? How would these items even exist if it were not for capitalists? *Innovators need investors.*

And of course capitalism entails a lot more.

Interesting article....

"Entrepreneurship in China
Let a million flowers bloom"

http://www.economist.com/node/18330120


----------



## Toronto.gal

mode3sour said:


> 1. Oh, I didn't know you were a Native American? Or were you referring to the War in Europe, which made America the economic power it is?
> 
> 2. A system where someone always profits from problems can only lead to one thing


1. LOL at your sarcasm, but don't you think Belguy was talking about geography and not immigration? 

2. And you were not one of them? 

Is the system in need of repairs? No doubt.


----------



## m3s

Toronto.gal said:


> Not a perfect system for sure, but neither a poor one.
> 
> I'm a capitalist but don't consider myself an exploiter. I don't hear many people complain about all the conveniences they have; how many billions were spent the past 4 days buying some of these modern day conveniences that people so love? How would these items even exist if it were not for capitalists? *Innovators need investors.*
> 
> And of course capitalism entails a lot more.


You are en exploiter, you just chose to ignore everything outside Canada's border as someone else's problem while we enjoy all these great conveniences you speak of at other's expense. It's not a sustainable system as is. Innovators don't need investors at all, in fact innovation is only slowed down to maximize profits. People have innovated long before capitalism, that's just being entirely closed minded.

Many countries had perfectly acceptable plans to become democratic while maintaining public control of assets or co-op companies that kept some wealth in their own country. While people say the US shoved democracy down everyone's throat, they actually shoved capitalism down their throats using the IMF so that foreign investors could siphon out all the profits. So now we blame them for having poor economies and crashing our own?

There's lots of money in the world.. it's just all hidden in private bank accounts now. I think of it like an ecosystem - It's no good for a certain species to take over, a balance is required. Capitalism is great in theory, as long as there is certain a balance of wealth to keep the economy moving. Capitalism is great in Canada, where we have an equal playing field. You need to open your eyes to the global market though if you think we haven't exploited anyone for these "conveniences"


----------



## HaroldCrump

I don't think we can hand over control of assets to the state and call it "not capitalism".
BTW, when we say assets, we really mean "means of production", right?
Or to be correct, factors of production.

You either have a profit oriented system or you don't.
You can't have this half profit half socialized system.
That is known as State Capitalism, or "capitalism by the state".

However, as we all know, the state is controlled those with the purse strings - whether it is landed gentry in the middle ages or the corporations in modern times.

Therefore, such a system of state capitalism simply becomes a surrogate for real capitalism.

On paper, it's easy to smear social welfare on top of capitalism - in practice, it turns out pretty bad as we can see in all the welfare states in Europe.

Profit based production = capitalism.
You either have it or you don't.
To eliminate capitalism, you have to eliminate profit.


----------



## Toronto.gal

mode3sour said:


> 1. You are en exploiter, you just chose to ignore everything outside Canada's border as someone else's problem.
> 
> 2. Innovators don't need investors at all.


1. And how do you know that? You don't have a clue about what I do and what I know. Isn't that what you told me once?

2. I'll let you have the last word.


----------



## Belguy

Where, or where, is the justice in this world?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ck-selection/2011/11/28/gIQAgrvG5N_story.html

Talk about rubbing salt in the wound!!!

Some rallies can be expected at this time of the year as investment managers try to shore up their returns for the year.

Fitch has revised it's U.S. credit rating outlook from AAA to negative.

The OECD has cut it's growth forecast for Canada for 2012 from 2.8% down to 1.9% which is pretty anemic growth by any standard and not a sign that the stock markets will rally much next year.

Kevin O'Leary wants to know how your wind and solar stocks are doing compared to your oil sands stocks?

Also, some U.S. dividend stocks to consider:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ks-to-keep-you-safe-into-2012/article2252411/


----------



## Belguy

"Behind the market gains lies a harsh reality. While stocks rise, rating agencies, banks and international think-tanks are all sounding their loudest warnings yet that the world's economy is still perched on a precipice, and inaction on the two-year-old sovereign debt crisis would be enough to send it over the edge into recession--or worse."

"We are getting to a point where policy-makers are now responding. The message from the market is clear: get your act together or we are going to destroy you."

---Toronto Star, Nov. 29


----------



## humble_pie

the reason i always appreciate mode's points of view is that he is that rara avis, a working soldier-philosopher. If only we could have more thoughtful men & women like this in our armed forces.

in many first nation systems of government, ideally speaking, it was the warriors who were charged with the highest governing duties. Theirs were the mandates to carry out justice & to ensure the moral well-being of the nation.

as for kind, warm-hearted & wise t.gal, i just love her to pieces.

now don't squabble, you 2.


----------



## Belguy

We are witnessing and experiencing one of history's great crises of finance.

China is becoming the dominant creditor in the world along with all of the leverage that will bring.

Will France, Italy etc. allow other countries to set their respective budgets as will be required to get us out of this mess?

Before the recession, the world was experiencing annual growth in the range of 4 per cent. In the next five to ten years, sub 2 per cent growth can be expected with all that will mean for the stock markets. It comes down to either weak growth or a recession as our only viable options. 

Don't expect much in the way of market returns going forward. At best, you might expect single digit gains. Governments of all levels everywhere will be contracting.

According to Moody's, European bank debt is about to be downgraded again.


----------



## humble_pie




----------



## Belguy

European outlook grim:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rst-of-the-debt-crisis-so-far/article2253197/

Large banks downgraded as crisis deepens:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/sp-downgrades-top-global-banks/article2254046/


----------



## webber22

This is a pretty depressing thread. All I know is that I'll be playing along with Goldman and the boys - buying low and selling high - riding the endless waves of opportunity, while all the coach potatoes will still be stuck in 1990's methodologies earning 4% at best


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## fatcat

where do i subscribe to your newsletter ?


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## Belguy

This past month, everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

However, looking on the bright side, we're a month closer to death.

--With apologies to Dilbert.

Watch out for Syria. It is a potential powder keg.


----------



## Belguy

While today's action by the Central Banks will help in the short term, it is up to the politicians to solve the problem in the long term.

If you haven't already read it somewhere else, here is an article that explains why, when all is said and done, German political leaders will only go so far to solve the problem.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/eurozone-germany-history-idUSL5E7MA17O20111110


----------



## Kim

Watching, waiting, watching, waiting some more, still waiting, watching is making me sea sick so I am watching less. And to think it has only been 3 months since August - seems like much longer for some reason. Hurry up already Europe.


----------



## andrewf

Agreed that today's announced action by CBs only buys time for Europe to agree to more fundamental changes. I'm still pessimistic that that will happen.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Just keep in mind, for those who were smart enough to accumulate a lot of cash for future investment, that when the stock market eventually starts going up, up and away, it will start going up when it appears that many, many problems still exist to be resolved.

I could explain why this is but the most important thing to remember is, that is how it will work. If you think back to previous bottoms you will see this is the case. In March of 2003, George Bush was just getting ready to start a new war and the economy was still realing from recession. Go back and look at a newspaper in March of 2003 and I defy you to find one positive article, but alas, we know what happened after that. Up, up and away.

Take a look at March of 2009. Same thing. Big, hairy, nasty problems is all that surrounded the investor, but what did the stock market do? Up, up and away.

You could go back to 1982, 1974, even 1942. The Japanese had just attacked Pearl Harbour, Germany owned Europe and the Russians were retreating as fast as they could. What did the stock market do? Up, up and away.

So anyways, I sympathize with your problem. I cannot say that today is the start of a new bull market. It probably is not. But when the bull market does start, it will be when everyone is completely convinced that we have a lot more downside to go.

Just something to think about and that is why market timing is almost impossible.


----------



## Belguy

While today's move by the central banks is welcome, it does practically nothing to solve the bigger problem of insolvent countries in Europe. 

I am afraid that we are drawing closer to the end and that nothing can or will ultimately be done to avoid a catastrophe which, among other things, will cause the world's markets to crash. We are at the edge of the cliff.

It is now only a matter of days!!

I desperately hope that I am wrong but I think that this is now all but unavoidable.

If you can see any viable solution to the European sovereign debt problem, please tell us!!!!!


----------



## Argonaut

Belguy is the only bear I know who is 100% invested and long. He's something of a Masochinvestor.


----------



## webber22

That's it - a Masochinvestor ---> "The enjoyment of what appears to be painful or _tiresome_"


----------



## Belguy

I'm not the brightest bulb in the Christmas light set!! When my money is gone, it will be gone. At least I will not be the only one in the soup line!!!

Buy, hold, dig a hole and hide!!!

The European mess is unsolvable!!! God himself could not solve it!!! I hope that I am wrong but how can I be!!!

What a lousy Christmas this is going to be!! Bah, humbug!!!
This is going to be an annus terriblus (or whatever) to quote the Latin.

And to all a good night and pleasant dreams!!! May the sugar plum fairies dance in your head!! 

Now, THAT was good wine!!


----------



## Miser

Wine is good, whine is also okay!
Euro is done. Just a matter of when, then the US is next.
If your home finances were like these nations you would have a zero credit score.


----------



## fatcat

> Belguy is the only bear I know who is 100% invested and long. He's something of a Masochinvestor.


  nice argo ... belguy actually hates having money ... it's driving him nuts ... even living under the bed won't help ... oh my, what a predicament


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## Belguy

At least my problems are solvable as I am solvent.

Europe's problems, on the other hand, are not solvable.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/sarko...n-has-begun-because-there-30-trillion-problem

It is going to take over two trillion dollars to stabilize over 30 trillion dollars in order to keep Europe from breaking apart and causing world stock markets to crash. Anyone who thinks that that kind of rescue is going to happen is simply living in la-la land.

The ship is about to go down! Man the lifeboats!!

How bad is this? It's as bad as it gets!!!

If you still think that a catastrophe can be avoided, perhaps you could explain to the rest of us how this will happen because, for the life of me, I cannot!!!

I believe that this has the potential to play out as the story of our lifetime.

I hope that I am entirely wrong in my assessment of the situation and end up having to eat my words.

Time will tell and not all that much time at that.


----------



## Abha

Belguy you shouldn't read ZeroHedge. 

You have enough panic to deal with just watching the markets day to day.


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## Toronto.gal

"Masochinvestor", LOL argo.


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy,

Did your portfolio not go up by at least 5% since Monday?

... And you are still stressing like you didn't just make thousands of dollars back? 

Times are not good, but it's not the end of the world.


----------



## Toronto.gal

We're his willing targets. 

"If you must walk by the complainers, walk by them with your friends. You will be less of a target."


----------



## Belguy

That 5 per cent gain will be gone within a week if not by closing tomorrow!!

I don't think that I am complaining but I am expressing real concerns about the mess in Europe and the ability of politicians there to solve it.

If you are an optimist in today's world, then you will be an eternal optimist!!

Scrambling to save the Euro:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ers-scramble-to-save-the-euro/article2256190/


----------



## Abha

Belguy said:


> If you are an optimist in today's world, then you will be an eternal optimist!!


Wouldn't the reverse be true as well. Once an eternal pessimist, always a eternal pessimist.


----------



## Belguy

I was not a pessimist back in the years when my 'Couch Potato' portfolio was averaging a 7 per cent annual return. While not great, in hindsight, those were the 'good old days'. Little did I know it at the time as I waited for things to improve.

Improve? If it wasn't so sad, it would be funny!!


----------



## Belguy

Current asset allocation for the top performing Yale University Endowment Fund:

U.S. Equities: 7 per cent

Foreign Equities: 9 per cent

How does this compare with your own personal investment account?

http://news.yale.edu/2011/09/28/investment-return-219-brings-yale-endowment-value-194-billion


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy said:


> How does this compare with your own personal investment account?


You should read Unconventional Success by David Swensen who run the Yale Endowment. He specifically counsels individual investors *not* to follow the Endowment model because they have neither the resources nor scale to duplicate it. Rather he suggests investors allocate their money to traditional asset classes: Government bonds, TIPS, US and foreign stocks and REITs.


----------



## Dmoney

He's just saying that so he can keep beating the market .

This is why it might even be worth looking at investing directly in pension plans if the opportunity presents itself. I know OMERS offers its members that option, and I feel like I read/heard somewhere that pension plans may now be able to provide discretionary wealth management to third parties.


----------



## humble_pie

my theory is that the real belguy perished some time ago, alas, when he suffocated underneath his bed.

the party posting now is a rogue imposter. You can tell because he overdoes it, i mean he overdoes the overdoer, so we are really into the heights of decadent rococo style.


----------



## Homerhomer

I am beginning to think I am missing some good fun having him on the ignore list,...... I perhaps should reconsider.


----------



## Belguy

Most have reconsidered putting me on their 'ignore' list and have instead put me back on their 'most read' list. After all, it is better to be well informed than to be ignorant!!!


----------



## OptsyEagle

Italian bond yields have dropped below 7% and Spanish yields are now below 6%. Looks like all European government bonds had some good buying interest over the last few days.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-govtbonds.html


----------



## kcowan

Homerhomer said:


> I am beginning to think I am missing some good fun having him on the ignore list,...... I perhaps should reconsider.



Whenever he says something worth considering, someone else will quote him. That is one of the limitations of the Ignore function. It should ignore the parent and all its children posts.

Maybe it should put entire threads initiated by the Ignored person on Ignore!


----------



## humble_pie

dormouse do you really believe that reading snippets of newspapers out loud at the top of your lungs is truly informing the other guests at the mad hatter's tea party ...


----------



## Belguy

Euro fix will take years: Merkel

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/03/w...kel-germany-speech-euro-zone-debt-crisis.html

Also:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...e-all-germans-cure-for-europe/article2258832/

On the edge of the collapse of the Euro Zone:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...kest-hour-is-just-before-dawn/article2258597/


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## HaroldCrump

I suggest that we need a separate thread called _Belguy's Whining and Nervous Breakdown_.


----------



## zylon

^ +1 ^

I've long thought that a "bears only" den would be useful.

problem is ... they can't stand each other's stench


----------



## marina628

I fail to understand why members come in this thread that Belguy started just to harass him.


----------



## KaeJS

zylon said:


> problem is ... they can't stand each other's stench


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGazkrOXPR4


----------



## m3s

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. And how do you know that? You don't have a clue about what I do and what I know. Isn't that what you told me once?
> 
> 2. I'll let you have the last word.


1. I don't have to have a clue about what you do at all, and you are either telling me what you know or else what they call "trolling".. Our constant economic growth relies heavily on exploiting others and, no matter what you do, the money you are able to get in this market trickles down from those exploitations. We have all the glorious conveniences you credit capitalism with because we have the money to make more money off other countries (not because they perform worse, because they were later to the capitalist system etc) For the same reason a person with money will make more money if you understand how interest works. I challenge you to read a top selling book written by a Canadian that explains this all very well without any conspiracy theories (The Shock Doctrine) and show me a book that contends otherwise. I think we can all agree that we exploit Africa, S America and to an extent China/Asia (non democratic capitalist state) but also especially Eastern Europe and Russia and now blatantly obviously the ME.

2. What if we all just rolled our eyes at everything we disagreed with instead of discussing or at least providing rational explanations? Asking myself "what if we all" is a great attitude check we should all do more often



humble_pie said:


> the reason i always appreciate mode's points of view is that he is that rara avis, a working soldier-philosopher. If only we could have more thoughtful men & women like this in our armed forces.
> 
> in many first nation systems of government, ideally speaking, it was the warriors who were charged with the highest governing duties. Theirs were the mandates to carry out justice & to ensure the moral well-being of the nation.
> 
> as for kind, warm-hearted & wise t.gal, i just love her to pieces.
> 
> now don't squabble, you 2.


Thanks humble, appreciation is more than I ever ask because I know I can be blunt but an open mind is all I really expect. Soldiers are actually not what you see from Hollywood and many are very critical thinkers. It doesn't matter how much CNN or books you read, we have an exclusive point of view that stirs a lot of questions. I'm afraid we will look back on this era with terms such as economic genocide and wonder how we were so barbaric, not unlike how we look back on all the other atrocious cultures before us. Not every German killed Jews, but not many of them really shook off their wool and questioned what they were doing either. They probably just said things like "all these conveniences are thanks to Nazis"..



Belguy said:


> I was not a pessimist back in the years when my 'Couch Potato' portfolio was averaging a 7 per cent annual return. While not great, in hindsight, those were the 'good old days'.


How many years did you earn 7%? We haven't even fallen back even a year in prices!? Then again I haven't looked in awhile?




Belguy said:


> The European mess is unsolvable!!! God himself could not solve it!!! I hope that I am wrong but how can I be!!!



You're letting the hype get to you. We've solved much worse. Germany was crushed beyond repair after WWII but the financial aid made Germany a very healthy economy. The difference was that aid was spent politically in those days, especially when there was still communist Russia to contend with. You have to understand how the IMF and globalization really works in the interest of corporations today. The further Europe can crash, the more profitable the investments will be. Like I've said before there is still more than enough money in the world stashed away to keep this charade moving along for now.


----------



## Belguy

One thing that I have long ago discovered about the internet is that people will attack you personally because of their anomymity. They likely wouldn't do it if they had to use their real names.

There have been numerous references to my "whining" about how bad things are, particularly in the Euro zone. However, whenever I go to other financial websites, this is the topic that is top of mind.

However, apparently, on this website, some of the participants take exception to my discussing it.

What I can't figure out is why they just don't put me on 'ignore' and do exactly that as I am getting a tad tired of their sniping.

How can you be interested in the subject of investing but don't want to hear about one of the biggest economic crises of our time?

If you are not interested in the European situation, why are you even checking in on this thread?

By the way, there are basically just 3 different types of investors who post on this forum:

1. Those who don't know anything: approx. 10 %
2. Those who may actually know a little: approx. 10 %
3. Those who don't realize they don't know anything: approx. 80%

The weird thing about the stock market is that every time one person sells, another one buys and they BOTH think that they are smart!!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> The weird thing about the stock market is that every time one person sells, another one buys and they BOTH think that they are smart!!


They both are more than likely making decisions based on different goals.

One person may have been a trader, one person may have got a margin call.
One person may be buying for the yield and has a long term outlook, one person may have a short term outlook and sees greater opportunity elsewhere.

It doesn't mean one person has to be right.

If Trader A buys XYZ at $10 and sells 2 days later at $11 to Trader B who buys at $11 and claims dividends for 4 years and sells at $12, how did either of them make a mistake?

They both made profit.

And who do you know Trader A didn't jump into something more high risk (let's call it ABC) that made him more money, where as ABC would not be suitable for Trader B's risk tolerance?

Am I wrong in saying anything I have said?


----------



## Toronto.gal

mode3sour said:


> I challenge you to read a top selling book written by a Canadian that explains this all very well without any conspiracy theories (The Shock Doctrine)


Will do, thanks!


----------



## dogcom

I don't know about you guys but I am not bothered by anything belguy or anyone else says as long as it doesn't get way out of line. And belguy does make a very good point that this is a thread about Europe.

Mode3sour I also believe that the debt Europe the US and others have is unsolvable in its current form. Something needs to give to wash away the debt one way or the other.


----------



## Causalien

I don't care.

Part of what I need is to read different person's response to different issues. Gauging sentiment is as important a metric as my robots analyzing TA.

If I find one of you who is a great tell for market reversals because you bet on the exact wrong thing at the wrong time 100% of the time. I am going to pay you to keep on investing and writing.


----------



## Belguy

For better or worse, as a long time, buy-and-hold investor, I will never find myself "betting on the wrong thing at the wrong time". The only time that I am buying or selling anything is when I do my annual rebalancing.

To each his own. Live and let live.

Buy, hold, and


----------



## Belguy

We are all Germans:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...e-all-germans-cure-for-europe/article2258832/


----------



## OptsyEagle

Italy PM unveils sweeping austerity package


By Giuseppe Fonte

ROME (Reuters) - Prime Minister Mario Monti unveiled a 30 billion euro package of austerity measures on Sunday, raising taxes and increasing the pension age in a drive to shore up Italy's strained finances and stave off a crisis that threatens to overwhelm the euro zone.

Packed into a single emergency decree which comes into effect before formal parliamentary approval, the measures followed growing pressure for sweeping measures to restore confidence in the euro zone's third-largest economy.

Monti said the package, divided between 20 billion euros of budget measures over 2012-14 and a further 10 billion euros in measures to boost growth, was painful but necessary.

"We have had to share the sacrifices, but we have made great efforts to share them fairly," he told a news conference, in which he said he had renounced his own salary as prime minister and economy minister.

In a mark of the emotional impact of the cuts, Welfare Minister Elsa Fornero broke down in tears as she announced an end to inflation indexing on all but the lowest pension bands, a move that will mean an effective income cut for many pensioners.

The measures come before one of the most crucial weeks since the creation of the single currency more than a decade ago, with European leaders due to meet on Thursday and Friday in Brussels to try to agree a broader rescue plan for the bloc.

Italy, with a public debt of around 120 percent of gross domestic product, has been at the centre of Europe's debt crisis since yields on its 10-year bonds shot up to around 7 percent, similar to levels seen when countries such as Greece and Ireland were forced to seek a bailout.

Adoption of the package is seen as vital for re-establishing Italy's shattered credibility with financial markets after a series of unfulfilled promises by the previous centre-right government of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Unions said the cuts will hit poorer workers and pensioners disproportionately hard, but there was little sign of serious political opposition to Monti's plan.

With Italy close to a debt emergency that would destroy Europe's financial defenses, EU leaders will meet in Brussels this week hoping to agree steps to bind the bloc more closely with tougher fiscal rules.

SPENDING CUTS, TAX HIKES

With yields on Italian 10 year bonds near 7 percent and almost 160 billion euros of bonds needing to be refinanced by the end of April, the worry is that market confidence has been so badly damaged that outside help will be needed.

Deputy Economy Minister Vittorio Grilli said around 12-13 billion euros of the 30 billion euro package would come from spending cuts with the rest coming from tax increases.

As well as an end to inflation indexing for many pensioners, the measures will see the minimum pension age for both men and women raised in stages to 66 by 2018 with incentives to keep workers in employment until 70.

A new property tax, which head of Italy's local government association Graziano Delrio said would raise some 10-11 billion euros, will account for the bulk of the new revenues.

A two-percentage-point increase in value added tax could also be introduced from September next year, while there would also be new taxes on luxury goods like yachts and some gas-guzzling cars.

As part of a crackdown on tax evasion, cash transactions of more than 1,000 euros will be banned, and there were also measures to liberalize business opening hours and open up pharmacies and the transport sector to more competition.

The package also cut a number of local government functions in a bid to reduce the cost of administration.

Monti left for a later date the vexed question of reforming of contracts that hinder companies from laying off workers, a measure seen as key to overhauling the labor market, but which is bitterly opposed by unions.


----------



## Belguy

This should be a particularly interesting week for Europe!! The ECB meets on Thursday and the summit of European leaders takes place on Friday. There seems to be some glimmer of hope that Germany and France have finally absorbed the seriousness of the problem and the need for significant and timely action if a world-wide recession is to be avoided and the Euro zone can be salvaged.

The remaining question in my mind is what can they possibly do to correct the problem now that it has been allowed to get to where we are today?

Much of this will likely determine whether we are in a short or longer term rally in the equity markets.

Hang on to your roller coaster handles!!! 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...s-markets-rise/article2259899/?cmpid=nl-bizt1


----------



## OptsyEagle

Pressure seems to be easing. Current Bond yields for:

Italy: 2 Yr - 5.708%, 5Yr - 6.021%, 10Yr - 5.934%
Spain: 2Yr - 4.010%, 5Yr - 4.651%, 10Yr - 5.076%

All nicely below that 7% range the bears always want to keep harping on. Nice to see.


----------



## sensfan15

I hope something big happens in Brussel's tomorrow. If not look out below!


----------



## Miser

Hoping for a bump in the Euro after the summit.
Then I am gonna short the sh!t out of it!


----------



## sags

This is the kind of story that is really disturbing.

The MF Global collapse is revealing financial dealings so outrageous, they may not be solveable.

http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuter...d_the_great_Wall_St_re-hypothecation_scandal/

One snippet from the article that is concerning for US bank investors.......

_U.S. banks direct holding of sovereign debt is hardly negligible. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), U.S. banks hold $181 billion in the sovereign debt of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. If we factor in off-balance sheet transactions such as re-hypothecations and repos, then the picture becomes frightening. _

Former head of MF Global, Corzine is supposed to appear before government hearings today. He is expected to invoke his rights under the Fifth Amendment.


----------



## sags

Evidently, Mr. Corzine doesn't know where the billion or so went.

Somebody must have carried it out in their lunch box.


----------



## Lephturn

Corzine needs to go to jail. They also need to go after the banks that allowed this commingling of funds.

These are supposed to be segregated, and they REALLY need to drop the hammer on some people and fix this. The CFTC needs to get on this!


----------



## kcowan

I think a hedge fund that leverages holdings to acquire sovereign debt and then insures against any loss with a CDS seems to be behaving the way we expect. Who would believe that 50% of that debt could be lost without triggering the CDS? These are trying times for investors!


----------



## Belguy

Everything that can go wrong, is going wrong!!!

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1134...awful-days-ahead-update-1.html?obref=obinsite


----------



## Four Pillars

Belguy said:


> Everything that can go wrong, is going wrong!!!
> 
> http://www.thestreet.com/story/1134...awful-days-ahead-update-1.html?obref=obinsite


Oh c'mon. You promised you would stay away until after Christmas!!!!!


----------



## webber22

Belguy is going under the bed now, so it's TIME TO BUY !!!!


----------



## Abha

@Belguy

I thought you imposed a exile period on yourself. What brought you back?


----------



## Belguy

I came back from my self-imposed exile because I could see that things were getting worse by the day and I am trying, in my own small way, to save the world--one investor at a time!!

I am not alone in my thinking. None other than the head of the IMF agrees that things are bad in Europe and that the world could be about to experience a re-run of the 1930's. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...uropean-crisis-requires-more-cooperation.html


----------



## andrewf

I don't disagree, Belguy. I just worry about you. You sound as though the poor performance of the market takes a very large psychological toll on you. If you're not going on act on these machinations of the eurozone leaders, IMF, etc., then why spend so much time obsessing over it?


----------



## jcgd

Is Belguy not just being comical? I assumed he was just joking and over exaggerating everything.


----------



## Jungle

No he's not. Unfortunately he got caught in retirement with his investments in too risky of assets for his personal tolerance and age.


----------



## gibor365

Belguy,
read positive articles 
‘Raging Bull' Market Is Set to Begin in 12-18 Months: Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45699873


----------



## Belguy

We are three years into a lost decade!!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-new-lost-decade-is-leading-to-revolution-2011-10-04

However, being the eternal optimist, I do feel that things will improve during the second half of the current century.


----------



## Four Pillars

Belguy said:


> However, being the eternal optimist, I do feel that things will improve during the second half of the current century.


Ok, now that was funny. Nice work BG.


----------



## Belguy

Not funny but deadly serious. This is the age of universal deleveraging. Equities will not perform well during this worldwide cleansing of the financial system. It will take years to accomplish.

http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/MG..._deleveraging_The_global_credit_bubble_Update

Google 'financial deleveraging' for more interesting, but scary, reading.

What we are experiencing is not simply part of the normal business cycle and it will take a matter of years to work out.

Expect single digit returns from equity markets for years to come and this is being optimistic.

If Europe fails, expect much worse.


----------



## jcgd

Europe, as well as Canada, US, etc. have for the most part wrapped up their growth. Next over the next 100 years we should see China, India, Brazil, etc. become the major growth economies of the world. These countries are not in debt up to their eyeballs because they don't yet have the middle class to in-debt. My money is on those economies for my investing lifetime (which just started). 

I personally think the way to make money is invest in companies who are getting growth from these developing companies like they did during the USA's reign as a superpower, and companies that are born fresh out of these new economies. Think of the growth from the USA over the last 100 years. Times that by 5 and I see the future Growth from China and India.


----------



## Belguy

It'll have to depend on the buying power of it's own citizens because they can no longer depend on growth in their exports to the old economy countries. If their exports decline, they had better hope that their domestic economy can somehow grow in spite of those lost exports.

Are you willing to bet the farm that that will happen? 

Not me!!!


----------



## Belguy

The European nightmare worsens.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...s-for-europe-outlook-not-good/article2294607/

This will not end well.


----------



## Four Pillars

Belguy said:


> The European nightmare worsens.
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...s-for-europe-outlook-not-good/article2294607/
> 
> This will not end well.


Funny, I read that article earlier and I was thinking that Belguy would probably enjoy it.


----------



## doctrine

To be fair, when you hear doom and gloom like that, the real intelligent investors get to work looking for bargains. With European stock markets down 20% in the last year, there are probably some great companies selling at discounts. I don't know much about European stocks though.


----------



## Belguy

Look for large European companies that ship a significant portion of their products to other parts of the world.

http://www.investorplace.com/2011/12/5-european-stocks-to-buy-now/


----------



## londoncalling

Some see disaster where I see this as an opportunity. I guess it really depends on where you are in your investment cycle. for me I am in the accumulation phase so I would be glad for things to stay flat or increase with inflation for the next few years. However, I do empathize with those that got caught with too high a risk allocation for their tolerance nearing or at retirement. Unfortunately in life there are no dress rehearsals but it's so darn difficult to get things right for an entire lifetime of investing. I expect this to be a volatile year and the only thing that will take the world's eyes off of Europe is recovery in the US. I saw a chart of US job numbers and they looked promising. However, I agree with others on this thread that the world is in a phase of massive deleveraging. As a result i having a feeling returns will return to a much smaller but normal range ie reversion to the mean.

Cheers!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> The European nightmare worsens.
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...s-for-europe-outlook-not-good/article2294607/
> 
> This will not end well.


As soon as I saw the word "predictions" in the title, I closed my browser and the receptors in my brain consciously wrote off this article as null and void.


----------



## Belguy

I heard an 'expert' on BNN's Moneytalk say today that, when he reaches retirement age, that NONE of his hard-earned savings would then be in the equity markets.

It's a crap shoot!!


----------



## scomac

Yabbut, did he say where his hard-earned savings would be?

If these guys aren't part of the solution, then they're part of the problem! Best to tune them out.

If I were you Belguy, I would take up a new hobby that didn't hang on the latest prognostication of these so called "financial media personalities".


----------



## londoncalling

One can find "evidence" of future events if they look hard enough. For every doom and gloom article that Belguy posts someone else could easily find another saying we are gonna have a 20 year bull run. I guess what I am trying to say to you all(but mostly Belguy) is "Don't Believe Everything You Read!". 

That being said Mr. Belguy I find your posts amusing. You seem to add some flare to this forum in your own way which I rather enjoy. In some ways you also remind me of an 18th Century town crier. 

As has been mentioned before if you are a buy and hold investor why are you so attuned to the noise of the market media? Buy and hold is based on fundamentals not noise. This post is not being made to insult you and I have read every single doomsday post you have put up since I have joined this forum and you do make some rather interesting points.

Yes it is good to read lots of information but it is a better idea to read information from a variety of sources with a variety of opinions to draw your own conclusion. From what I have read,it seems to me you were placed in the wrong asset allocation for your risk tolerance at the wrong time in your life cycle and now you have experienced a series of unfortunate events. I empathize with you in that regard, and it should act as a warning to others, but the markets will turnaround at some point.

IMO buy and hold is dead, in fact in never really existed, the world was just duped into thinking markets continually return 10-20% annually forever. Now we have learned that this isn't possible and making money in the market takes time and effort. This time it is no different! Yes we have seen under performance recently just as we saw out performance in the years prior in a quest for reversion to the mean. At some point we will see a bull run, this I promise you Belguy.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I believe you should spend very little time in the useless effort of trying to predict the future (or listening to those that do) and a lot more time determining how to position yourself for the many potential outcomes the future might present.


----------



## Belguy

Unfortunately, I have an interest in finance and the markets and hence I am drawn to the business channels and literature concerning the stock markets. This interest, however, does not extend to doing analysis on individual stocks as I find this kind of due diligence to be rather mundane and boring and such research causes me to lose interest.

If you believe that, sooner or later, the markets always recover and move higher, then I don't see how you can conclude that buy-and-hold is dead. However, your perspective certainly changes once you approach retirement age and most certainly when you are already retired as these bear markets can be very disconcerting. When you start to look at potential years for the markets to recover and you no longer have so many of those years, and you see your hard-earned retirement savings eroding, and you start to concern yourself with how this is going to affect your quality of life in your senior years, that is when it starts to affect your daily disposition.

Everybody's circumstances are different and you may find yourself at my stage of life with booming stock markets and a strong bull market but such timing was not in the cards for my generation of retirees.

The lesson that I have learned is to not listen to those who say that even retirees should have a significant portion of their retirement funds in equities. Instead, as you approach retirement, I would recommend dialing down on equities until you have only a small portion of your total savings in equities beyond 65 years of age.

What many current retirees who are invested in the markets are discovering is that it just isn't worth the worry and aggravation.

When I was younger, I felt differently. During down markets, I just purchased more stocks at sale prices.

Your time of life and personal circumstances make taking general investment advice questionable at best. This includes on forums such as this!!


----------



## Belguy

The European crisis will accelerate in 2012 and the politicians will be unable to stop the carnage. Hang onto your seatbelt!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...s-for-europe-outlook-not-good/article2294607/

And the U.S. isn't in much better shape:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...numbers-mask-us-economic-woes/article2295310/

Scary times!!!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Buying Opportunity!!!


----------



## sags

Debt got away from everyone.

Now the only solution is to forgive it.

They will eventually get around to it.


----------



## Belguy

The European politicians will not do one thing sooner than they have to and absolutely no more than they have to.

Let's hope that they don't miscalculate!!


----------



## ddkay

Despite Italian 10 year yields hovering around 7% I am gaining confidence Mario Monti can pull his country out of the rubble, Hungary's existence will be acknowledged by the IMF and they will begin to receive monetary support, and the ECB will take over bad debt from Greece and print to make up for any losses. They just have to scare you first.


----------



## Belguy

This post has absolutely nothing to do with Europe but it's my thread and that's why I'm using it:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ear/article2294485/singlepage/#articlecontent


----------



## Belguy

The world is moving to a darker place and soon!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ates-etf-powerhouse-in-canada/article2298889/

However, I do have some good news!! I signed up to receive a free financial newsletter by email. I know it's good because it's written by some guy who used to have a job!!

--With apologies to Dilbert


----------



## freshjiive

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...t-for-a-crash-forecaster-says/article2298020/


----------



## Miser

French credit downgraded a notch by S and P
More to come.

Euro gets whacked


----------



## Belguy

This Euro mess is going to be part of our lives for many years to come. The U.S. debt problem is another sleeping giant ready to cause many more problems down the road.

If the markets can overcome these two huge issues and post gains going forward, it will be quite the feat!!

Just don't bet the farm on it!!


----------



## uptoolate

The farm? With all the cash still on the sidelines, it doesn't look like folks are willing to bet much of anything.


----------



## Cal

I just find it frustrating that they don't just deal w it already, I know easier said than done. But it has to be done. And it will be painful.


----------



## Belguy

Even God him or herself could not solve the European debt problem!!

It only gets worse by the week.

This is not a short term problem. It will be with us for many years to come and nobody can predict where it will take us.

Anyone looking for a short term fix is in for some bitter disappointment.

Only the young may outlive this mess. We older geezers will not see the world's debt problems overcome in our lifetimes.

Given that, it then leaves one unanswered question--what is the average investor to do?

I, for one, have absolutely no idea and don't mind saying so. I do know that yield from fixed income investments is not going to help going forward as it did during past difficult periods for the stock markets and equity returns are a bigger question mark than just about ever before if we face many years of deleveraging as we would seem to be.

My confidence in buy-and-hold investing has pretty much disappeared and, since I am not a day trader, I feel sort of lost in the wilderness when it comes to figuring out what to do.

The only answer that I have found is to hold a portfolio of strong dividend paying stocks with a history of increasing that dividend over time but, where to start????


----------



## Cal

Well, we will always need basics like toothpaste (CL), food (WMT), electricity (EMA), how much we consume will vary, but I am sure these companies will figure out a way to make a profit.

I think cell phones are here to stay (T.A), and as long as we would like to buy houses, we will need a bank to have a mortgage from (pick one), and gas to heat it (ENB). During the recession, I did not cancel any of my insurance (SLF) policies either.

If you have some extra $ you may want to try a coffee (MCD), or go the the local mall (REI.UN) to see if there are any bargains.

There are lots of companies to start from. And they have smart people working for them, trying to figure out ways to make more profits....for us...

OR....just use a couch potato portfolio, you returns will be muted (works both ways), but so is your stress.


----------



## Miser

Belguy said:


> This Euro mess is going to be part of our lives for many years to come. The U.S. debt problem is another sleeping giant ready to cause many more problems down the road.
> 
> If the markets can overcome these two huge issues and post gains going forward, it will be quite the feat!!
> 
> Just don't bet the farm on it!!


US dollar and debt crisis is going to be a way bigger problem than the Euro.
Like Dollie Partons tits to Twiggys


----------



## sags

Obama needs another 1.2 Trillion added to the debt ceiling.

Reports are that this time, the Republicans will sit on the sidelines.

It will be instructive to see what happens.

If the Tea Party Republicans sit on their hands, even they are too scared to raise a ruckus.


----------



## marina628

I am in Florida this week looking at a property for our family ,the agent yesterday said that now Americans can buy with nothing down again so prices will go up a bit.He is suppose to be positive but was very depressing experience for us .We had a price in mind and were surprised when we got here that our budget can buy a house about twice the size we were considering.


----------



## newbie

marina628 said:


> I am in Florida this week looking at a property for our family ,the agent yesterday said that now Americans can buy with nothing down again so prices will go up a bit.He is suppose to be positive but was very depressing experience for us .We had a price in mind and were surprised when we got here that our budget can buy a house about twice the size we were considering.


that shows how us canadians pay too much for housing.
that is what i think


----------



## kcowan

marina628 said:


> We had a price in mind and were surprised when we got here that our budget can buy a house about twice the size we were considering.


Make sure you understand what the taxes will be. They may not be the same as the current owner was paying.


----------



## uptoolate

I was surprised in the other direction when looking in the St Petes area. Despite the huge drop in prices, the quality of the places still seemed pretty low compared to the asking prices. You can always tell when there has been a huge housing boom as the quality of the construction falls way off. I'm not sure it was ever that good in south Florida. 

Also, kcowan is right on the taxes as you probably know. Non-residents have to pay much more than residents.


----------



## londoncalling

newbie said:


> that shows how us canadians pay too much for housing.
> that is what i think


I agree. I was looking at the MLS for Queens and Manhattan and the bulk of the listings for comparable homes for Queens were the the same as Calgary. The ones in Manhattan the same as Vancouver or Toronto. It is ridiculous that I could buy a home 2x the size (often with a pool) of my current 1200 SF bungalow in Houston, Phoenix, or Las Vegas for about half the price in equivalent neighbourhoods in regards to services, crime, education income etc.


----------



## newbie

londoncalling said:


> I agree. I was looking at the MLS for Queens and Manhattan and the bulk of the listings for comparable homes for Queens were the the same as Calgary. The ones in Manhattan the same as Vancouver or Toronto. It is ridiculous that I could buy a home 2x the size (often with a pool) of my current 1200 SF bungalow in Houston, Phoenix, or Las Vegas for about half the price in equivalent neighbourhoods in regards to services, crime, education income etc.


London
and yet what amazes me is that people buy homes in the GTA area for 500k , enter into a massive debt that most likely will never be paid in their lifetime thinking that it is an "investment".
builders in Canada are making a killing with new subdivision homes.
Canadians are overtaxed and underpaid, not to mention the crappy health system that this country is experiencing compared to 30 years ago.
it is shamefull IMO.


----------



## marina628

Yes florida residents pay different property taxes as non residents.I have been doing my research for 2 years now got my hands on HOA docs etc as well.Ocean front homes have gone down but still very expensive and much older.Today we went to see a model home and builder is looking to sell it and lease it back for 2 years .this one iinterest us as he is willing to deduct the 2 year rent off cash price which wont result in any tax issues for us if we do buy this house.We are paying cash it is the only way I would buy a vacation home .


----------



## Belguy

"The period, that we are currently living through, is a low key version of the Great Depression."

--Paul Krugman, Economist, This Week/ABC TV


----------



## londoncalling

newbie said:


> London
> and yet what amazes me is that people buy homes in the GTA area for 500k , enter into a massive debt that most likely will never be paid in their lifetime thinking that it is an "investment".
> builders in Canada are making a killing with new subdivision homes.
> Canadians are overtaxed and underpaid, not to mention the crappy health system that this country is experiencing compared to 30 years ago.
> it is shamefull IMO.


I am also amazed that people will pay 10-15x their annual salary because "not owning a home is throwing money away". sometimes it is. sometimes it isn't. However, builders aren't the only profiteers of these new subdivisions. don't forget about the banks, realtors, home improvement stores, appliance stores, electronic stores. No sense buying a 500k home without adding another 20-30k consumer debt.

I would agree that Canadians may not be getting as much for their tax dollar as in years past. Our health system does need work but it is better than a lot of places. A growing disparity between the poor, not so poor and super rich also adds to this problem. It's easy to see if you make $100 dollars a year, I make $1000 dollars a year and we each get a 3% raise who actually wins.

However, we as a society need to realize we can't have it all and we certainly can't have it all now. We also need to create an economy that does not rely entirely on consumption. We primarily export raw materials and import consumer goods. The loss of manufacturing has occurred because we outpriced ourselves. What some consider "skilled labour" apparently isn't if we can teach a child in Indonesia to do the same task. I am not advocating child labour but people need to be realistic. Workers should be constantly improving their skill sets so as not to be easily marginalized. For many years I worked in boom and bust economies (Construction and O +G). However, one thing that amazes me is some people would rather see their entire financial situation go into a downward spiral than geographically relocate. The modern era is a mobile society and the reality is sometimes people have to leave their homes to pay for them. (ask anybody from the Maritimes).

Sorry to go off on a bit of a rant but I felt it was time for my Sunday sermon.


----------



## newbie

londoncalling said:


> I am also amazed that people will pay 10-15x their annual salary because "not owning a home is throwing money away". sometimes it is. sometimes it isn't. However, builders aren't the only profiteers of these new subdivisions. don't forget about the banks, realtors, home improvement stores, appliance stores, electronic stores. No sense buying a 500k home without adding another 20-30k consumer debt.
> 
> I would agree that Canadians may not be getting as much for their tax dollar as in years past. Our health system does need work but it is better than a lot of places. A growing disparity between the poor, not so poor and super rich also adds to this problem. It's easy to see if you make $100 dollars a year, I make $1000 dollars a year and we each get a 3% raise who actually wins.
> 
> However, we as a society need to realize we can't have it all and we certainly can't have it all now. We also need to create an economy that does not rely entirely on consumption. We primarily export raw materials and import consumer goods. The loss of manufacturing has occurred because we outpriced ourselves. What some consider "skilled labour" apparently isn't if we can teach a child in Indonesia to do the same task. I am not advocating child labour but people need to be realistic. Workers should be constantly improving their skill sets so as not to be easily marginalized. For many years I worked in boom and bust economies (Construction and O +G). However, one thing that amazes me is some people would rather see their entire financial situation go into a downward spiral than geographically relocate. The modern era is a mobile society and the reality is sometimes people have to leave their homes to pay for them. (ask anybody from the Maritimes).
> 
> Sorry to go off on a bit of a rant but I felt it was time for my Sunday sermon.


london
no sermon bro.
actually pretty good insight on top of what i briefly mentioned.
fully agree as to being mobile.
Europeans rent more than own homes as you may know.
in regards to Maritimes i fully understand the situation.
And still one can always find work if they really want to work right?
not there though , in other areas
but generally speaking , it is the Canadian society's fault to be in the situation that they encounter themselves.
Ontario was just placed on credit watch as you know with a possible downgrade.
It was once Canada's locomotive.
yes we are a commodity based economy , but the question is wasn't it always like that ?
so what is different now?
The only thing that makes things different is the government and people.
Our Health Care system is monopolized by american companies.
We should have a system like France or Germany where people have tiered Systems to choose from.
Anything that the Government has full control turns into a slow , seized crappy system.
Anyway, we can go on and on but in the end we are the ones paying with our tax dollars for all of this.


----------



## Belguy

"2012 will be the worst year for city revenues in the U.S. in three decades and it could take years for them to rebound."

For example, the city of Pontiac Michigan has every single one of it's public properties--even City Hall and the public cemeteries up for sale to try to raise desperately needed funds.

--NBC Nighty News

Just another sign of the times that we find ourselves in.


----------



## newbie

Belguy said:


> "2012 will be the worst year for city revenues in the U.S. in three decades and it could take years for them to rebound."
> 
> For example, the city of Pontiac Michigan has every single one of it's public properties--even City Hall and the public cemeteries up for sale to try to raise desperately needed funds.
> 
> --NBC Nighty News
> 
> Just another sign of the times that we find ourselves in.


Bel
are u bulish or bearish?
i still cant figure u out.
just asking.
as you can see from my posts i am deffinitely bearish right?


----------



## londoncalling

newbie said:


> london
> no sermon bro.
> actually pretty good insight on top of what i briefly mentioned.
> fully agree as to being mobile.
> Europeans rent more than own homes as you may know.
> in regards to Maritimes i fully understand the situation.
> And still one can always find work if they really want to work right?
> not there though , in other areas
> but generally speaking , it is the Canadian society's fault to be in the situation that they encounter themselves.
> Ontario was just placed on credit watch as you know with a possible downgrade.
> It was once Canada's locomotive.
> yes we are a commodity based economy , but the question is wasn't it always like that ?
> so what is different now?
> The only thing that makes things different is the government and people.
> Our Health Care system is monopolized by american companies.
> We should have a system like France or Germany where people have tiered Systems to choose from.
> Anything that the Government has full control turns into a slow , seized crappy system.
> Anyway, we can go on and on but in the end we are the ones paying with our tax dollars for all of this.


I talked to a dentist from the UK about a year and a half ago. He said the current Canadian health care system reminded him of the old UK health care system (not sure the date I am guessing pre Thatcher era). The point he was making is that throwing more tax dollars at a system doesn't fix it. Like you said when the gov't has full control of something it does get bogged down. It is easy to see when bureaucracy has their claws in something it becomes difficult to run efficiently. The best example that comes to mind for me is Potashcorp. Since the government gave up control the company has done unreal things. I agree we could continue to go on and on. However, the point is probably moot. Most people on the thread already know these things. 

Cheers!


----------



## newbie

londoncalling said:


> I talked to a dentist from the UK about a year and a half ago. He said the current Canadian health care system reminded him of the old UK health care system (not sure the date I am guessing pre Thatcher era). The point he was making is that throwing more tax dollars at a system doesn't fix it. Like you said when the gov't has full control of something it does get bogged down. It is easy to see when bureaucracy has their claws in something it becomes difficult to run efficiently. The best example that comes to mind for me is Potashcorp. Since the government gave up control the company has done unreal things. I agree we could continue to go on and on. However, the point is probably moot. Most people on the thread already know these things.
> 
> Cheers!


indeed London.
we can go on and on.
if anything turns into a private system , it has to be efficient to survive..
potashcorp was a great example that you have used.
Now i ask you a serious question , and why do i ask you, has the mkt priced in the known European downgrades?
there are 2 important nations in my mind that will also get a downgrade, U.K. and Japan.
In all honesty i thought Japan would be the first one to be downgraded this year before the European nations.
i was wrong , but big deal anyway.
its like a guessing game but i also think that those 2 are not if it is also when.
P.S. what most people may not understand is to why the ECB and the 5 largest central Banks injected such liquidity in the mkts last year, and as I expected it was due to the imminent downgrades .
therefore they bought some time , question is how long!
the mkts are always ahead of us and this weeks numbers will start giving a clearer picture, specially CHINA'S GDP numbers that have been declining for what the past 10 quarters?
IMO the mkt is going into another round of destruction , also not IF but when .Italian and French Bonds sales will be very important this week , but remember there is a lot of liquidity to amass their NOTES , IF the ECB comes into play, since they do not disclose who is actually buying those NOTES.

GL in ur endeavours.


----------



## sags

It isn't just about some billions to add capital to the Euro banks.

It is also about credit default swaps.

The re-insurers of European debt are rumoured to be banks, pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, corporations, and private investors worldwide.

Nobody knows how exactly how much and for whom the bell tolls.


----------



## newbie

sags said:


> It isn't just about some billions to add capital to the Euro banks.
> 
> It is also about credit default swaps.
> 
> The re-insurers of European debt are rumoured to be banks, pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, corporations, and private investors worldwide.
> 
> Nobody knows how exactly how much and for whom the bell tolls.


ur affirmation is right.
i cant see this week being that destructive initially.
when the U.S. was downgraded , yields dropped some 2/3 points initially if i can recall.please correct me if i am wrong , it has been awhile.
it took a few weeks for it to hit the low of 1.67.
it took awhile for the destruction to come up , so obviously , the liquidity in the mkt is surely avoiding a major financial colapse.
somewhat ,INITIALLY , the downgrades are priced in, unless all other reports for the week are bearish.
then i think the next round of destruction starts and down we go.
how low will depend on several factors obviously.
as for vthe CDS one should watch those really closely.


----------



## webber22

S&P has downgraded itself...................... It hasn't really, but this time it downgraded the EU bailout fund. Is there anything left for it to downgrade. During the last crash, it didn't downgrade enough, this time around it's got almost everything 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16586807


----------



## newbie

webber22 said:


> S&P has downgraded itself...................... It hasn't really, but this time it downgraded the EU bailout fund. Is there anything left for it to downgrade. During the last crash, it didn't downgrade enough, this time around it's got almost everything
> 
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16586807


yes there is .....
Moody's and fitch will follow with downgrades.
The EFSF was already a target.
England and japan are next , plus more european countries.
it does not end here.
politicians are downplaying it but what is really holding the mkts up is the ECB .
they r the largest european Bond buyers as of now.
just like the FED.
this is their QE.
how long can the ECB keep buying ?
i have no idea, maybe somebody with more knowledge than me here can answer you.


----------



## Belguy

As of now, the ECB would have to spend around ten TRILLION euros to resolve the European debt crisis and this amount is rising by the minute!

Anyone who thinks that this is not going to blow up big time is whistling past the graveyard!!

As bad as the banking problem was back in 2008, the European mess is six times larger!! 

We are heading into a bad movie and nobody knows where the plot will take us.

Whatever ultimately happens in Europe, the 'recovery' will be many years of mediocre global market conditions.

The bond market is signalling caution.

Some defensive steps that you can take are to emphasize large caps over small caps and invest in defensive sectors such as consumer discretionary and consumer staples.

The Bank of Canada warned today that the European crisis is worse than it first expected.

More and more U.S. companies are now starting to take a profit hit as a result of the European debt crisis and this will only get worse going forward.

--From several sources.


----------



## Four Pillars

Belguy said:


> As of now, the ECB would have to spend around ten TRILLION euros to resolve the European debt crisis and this amount is rising by the minute!
> 
> Anyone who thinks that this is not going to blow up big time is whistling past the graveyard!!
> 
> As bad as the banking problem was back in 2008, the European mess is six times larger!!
> 
> We are heading into a bad movie and nobody knows where the plot will take us.
> 
> Whatever ultimately happens in Europe, the 'recovery' will be many years of mediocre global market conditions.
> 
> The bond market is signalling caution.
> 
> Some defensive steps that you can take are to emphasize large caps over small caps and invest in defensive sectors such as consumer discretionary and consumer staples.
> 
> The Bank of Canada warned today that the European crisis is worse than it first expected.
> 
> More and more U.S. companies are now starting to take a profit hit as a result of the European debt crisis and this will only get worse going forward.
> 
> --From several sources.


That's quite a post Belguy - normally you would have spread these around several threads.

Merchant of doom strikes again...


----------



## newbie

Four Pillars said:


> That's quite a post Belguy - normally you would have spread these around several threads.
> 
> Merchant of doom strikes again...


apparently u r well respected here 4 pillars.
havent read ur threads or posts yet, but i think that he has a small tiny point though
when i have a chance i will read ur posts.
no sarcasm here i really think that we r heading south at some point.


----------



## Belguy

Watch out for late February or early March.

If the #*%@ doesn't hit the fan by then, I may have to reassess my predictions.

However, the more that I read, the more that I feel that this is going to be quite the year for investors.

If you are thinking about becoming more defensive, now might be the time!!

I am in the process of adjusting my target asset allocation to 50/50 equities to fixed income and tilting my equity portfolio in favour of large caps for my North American holdings and moving most of my international exposure to the emerging markets.

Most of my bond holdings are with the PH&N Bond Fund D with a bit of high yield and emerging markets debt thrown in.

When I am finished with my rebalancing, I will go back to hiding under the bed!!!

Scary times!!! The end is near!!!! The end is near!!!!!!


----------



## newbie

Belguy said:


> As of now, the ECB would have to spend around ten TRILLION euros to resolve the European debt crisis and this amount is rising by the minute!
> 
> Anyone who thinks that this is not going to blow up big time is whistling past the graveyard!!
> 
> As bad as the banking problem was back in 2008, the European mess is six times larger!!
> 
> We are heading into a bad movie and nobody knows where the plot will take us.
> 
> Whatever ultimately happens in Europe, the 'recovery' will be many years of mediocre global market conditions.
> 
> The bond market is signalling caution.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some defensive steps that you can take are to emphasize large caps over small caps and invest in defensive sectors such as consumer discretionary and consumer staples.
> 
> 
> 
> The Bank of Canada warned today that the European crisis is worse than it first expected.
> 
> More and more U.S. companies are now starting to take a profit hit as a result of the European debt crisis and this will only get worse going forward.
> 
> --From several sources.
Click to expand...



i dont think i am getting into that overpacked can of sardines lol


----------



## newbie

Belguy said:


> Watch out for late February or early March.
> 
> This is going to be quite the year!!!
> 
> If you are thinking about becoming more defensive, now might be the time!!
> 
> I am in the process of adjusting my target asset allocation to 50/50 equities to fixed income and tilting my equity portfolio in favour of large caps for my North American holdings and moving most of my international exposure to the emerging markets.
> 
> Most of my bond holdings are with the PH&N Bond Fund D with a bit of high yield and emerging markets debt thrown in.
> 
> When I am finished with my rebalancing, I will go back to hiding under the bed!!!
> 
> Scary times!!!


wow
u r worse than me lol.
well buy the cheapest puts for all draconian scenarios then.
u will retire really really early if ur that bearish


----------



## Causalien

Belguy said:


> Watch out for late February or early March.
> 
> If the #*%@ doesn't hit the fan by then, I may have to reassess my predictions.
> 
> However, the more that I read, the more that I feel that this is going to be quite the year for investors.
> 
> If you are thinking about becoming more defensive, now might be the time!!
> 
> I am in the process of adjusting my target asset allocation to 50/50 equities to fixed income and tilting my equity portfolio in favour of large caps for my North American holdings and moving most of my international exposure to the emerging markets.
> 
> Most of my bond holdings are with the PH&N Bond Fund D with a bit of high yield and emerging markets debt thrown in.
> 
> When I am finished with my rebalancing, I will go back to hiding under the bed!!!
> 
> Scary times!!! The end is near!!!! The end is near!!!!!!


I am not sure man. S&P is just a tool for the US government to force Germany to do something they don't want to. The fact that everything you are telling me, I've already read it in some form of the media tells me that these are things that somebody higher up wants to spread. 

The fact that none of these doom prediction have followed up with a numerical analysis is not very convincing. Yes, we know there's a number with T as suffix, but how much in that T will be written down? 

Then again, VIX has touched 20 and is still below 30. So volatility is about to go up. Buy VXX is a more sure bet, whether or not things go apocalypse. So all these debate about doom and gloom is moot.


----------



## humble_pie

i am mildly bullish myself, said the Mad Hatter, crunching on a pale green celery stick.

a pity the dormouse has regressed, said Alice. He was so lovable for a few minutes there, just like a little wise old doll, when he stopped rabbitting on about europe.


----------



## Miser

Spanish bond auction was mainly financed by ECB money given to Banks at a small rate. They then bought the debt at a profit......what else?
The turd and the fan are close.......very close.


----------



## Belguy

The news just keeps on getting gloomier!

http://edmonton.ctv.ca/servlet/an/l...bank-report-120118/20120118/?hub=EdmontonHome

I believe that the first half of the year, and particularly the first quarter, should clarify a lot about where we are going.

Do you have your seat belt secure??


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> i am mildly bullish myself, said the Mad Hatter, crunching on a pale green celery stick.
> 
> a pity the dormouse has regressed, said Alice. He was so lovable for a few minutes there, just like a little wise old doll, when he stopped rabbitting on about europe.




Mama mia Mr. Belguy, give it a rest; beautiful sunshine outside, undo your seat-belt & go for a walk!


----------



## ddkay

Ghost ride, ghost ride, get out the way let Casper drive


----------



## Assetologist

Belguy said:


> The news just keeps on getting gloomier!
> 
> http://edmonton.ctv.ca/servlet/an/l...bank-report-120118/20120118/?hub=EdmontonHome
> 
> I believe that the first half of the year, and particularly the first quarter, should clarify a lot about where we are going.
> 
> Do you have your seat belt secure??


Why follow the news?? 

By your age you should know the media often twists and glorifies events to sell papers or attract eyeballs!

I still think 'the market' can be a leading indicator but the volatility is noise that distracts investors. It will be interesting to see how 2012 turns out but nobody has a clue how the markets will respond so one's investment strategy should allow for this.

Good Luck.


----------



## Belguy

The European crisis could end up engulfing the world's economy:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...n-hit-bank-of-canada-predicts/article2306524/

We are face to face with a worldwide financial calamity.


----------



## RoR

Well that was a depressing thread. I even skipped a bunch of pages. 

Comment earlier about buying houses for 500K+ that people can't pay off in a lifetime - isn't that common in other places? I'm thinking Tokyo, London England, heard of 100 year mortgages that people don't pay off, the hope is that the property will appreciate in value, or that maybe future generations can pay it off.


----------



## Belguy

Looking for any glimmer of hope in an otherwise hopeless situation:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/glimmer-of-optimism-in-european-crisis/article2308625/


----------



## Miser

_In late December, the central bank pumped a massive €489-billion ($641-billion) into Europe’s liquidity-starved commercial banks, stabilizing the financial system at a time when it was teetering on the edge of a panic. Under its program, known formally as longer-term refinancing operations, or LTROs, banks can borrow for three-years from the ECB at the rock-bottom interest rate of 1 per cent._


Pumping means printing. This recovery is money from heaven.


No good GDP #'s or anything just a printing press.

There is no recovery, just an illusion!


----------



## jcgd

Isn't this what everyone does? Who knows, it may could possibly be working for the US and maybe it'll work for them too.


----------



## Miser

Short term.....printing looks good.
Think........looooonnnnnng term??

Inflation, and there can't be any other thing.
Money can't be created without a decrease in the value of the currency?

No GDP growth, just money supply????

Think about it?


----------



## OptsyEagle

Miser said:


> Short term.....printing looks good.
> Think........looooonnnnnng term??
> 
> Inflation, and there can't be any other thing.
> Money can't be created without a decrease in the value of the currency?
> 
> No GDP growth, just money supply????
> 
> Think about it?


Yes. The inflation is unfortuneate but it is kind of like going out to all your citizens with a hat and saying please donate a few bucks each and we can ratchet down the value of this debt and move on. Well, I guess they are not really saying "please".

Anyway, that's what they are doing. They had very little other choice and it may very well get them out of their currrent financial situation and the world can move on to other issues.


----------



## Belguy

The coming economic cataclysm:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-lifesaver-for-a-dying-greece/article2309825/


This investor has sold everything!!

http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/12/pf/investing/sell_stock_best_money_moves.moneymag/


----------



## bmckay

What is this thread? Fear mongering 101? It's a prime example of how easy the mainstream media can (and does) brainwash people. 

You got a roof over your head and food in your belly. Life will go on even if the EU collapses. So you have to leave your kids 50k instead of 200k. So what. Over 100 kids have died worldwide as I finish typing this post. Harsh example, yes. But it puts our cushy lives in perspective.


----------



## Belguy

The subject of this thread is 'Europe and the Lost Decade'.

It concerns investing and has nothing to do with kids dying.

That is a subject for another thread on a different forum.

Also, I went to see a financial planner today. He told me that he would manage my portfolio for a standard industry fee of 1% a year. I told him that I was investing a billion dollars and that his fee would then be $10 million per year. His response was that "those index funds aren't going to pick themselves!".

--with the usual apologies to Dilbert.


----------



## newbie

Miser said:


> _In late December, the central bank pumped a massive €489-billion ($641-billion) into Europe’s liquidity-starved commercial banks, stabilizing the financial system at a time when it was teetering on the edge of a panic. Under its program, known formally as longer-term refinancing operations, or LTROs, banks can borrow for three-years from the ECB at the rock-bottom interest rate of 1 per cent._
> 
> 
> Pumping means printing. This recovery is money from heaven.
> 
> 
> No good GDP #'s or anything just a printing press.
> 
> There is no recovery, just an illusion!


well
we are all in the same room right?
i mean the big boys have a much nicer room than us.
QE on the go.
the bulls are enjoying this bull ride ,enforced by fairly good numbers at the USA.
nevertheless i agree completely with you.
but from my posts , anyone can see i am biased.
this time they r using more smoke than mirrors.
i am just waiting for the mirrors to shatter.


----------



## newbie

bmckay said:


> What is this thread? Fear mongering 101? It's a prime example of how easy the mainstream media can (and does) brainwash people.
> 
> You got a roof over your head and food in your belly. Life will go on even if the EU collapses. So you have to leave your kids 50k instead of 200k. So what. Over 100 kids have died worldwide as I finish typing this post. Harsh example, yes. But it puts our cushy lives in perspective.


i think u should read more my friend


----------



## Belguy

I'm not stressed about being out of work because I have my investments----

Let's see how they.....

GAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!

-with apologies to Dilbert.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I would hate to get optimistic in an environment like this (some guys in white uniforms might come and take me away) but it certainly looks like the freeze in Europe's financial system is starting to thaw.

Italian bonds are all trading below 6% yield and Spanish ones are now below 5%.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-govtbonds.html

The TED spread that measures the rate of interest for interbank lending has been coming down nicely, indicating that the bankers are starting to settle down a little more.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

Since the TED spread is more of a North American indicator one needs to look at the Eurobor/Eonia spread to see how European banks are feeling about lending to one another.

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/11/EuroBankFund.html

Again, settling down nicely as well.

Anyway, all can change quickly but it is nice to see, all the same.

(Note: all of the above links will refresh with new information on Monday)


----------



## OptsyEagle

Since I have all my numbers out, I found another tidbit that is quite interesting. I won't bore you with the list of indicators that seem to show the US and world ecomony chugging along just fine. I think that this divergence between what people have been expecting (bad numbers) from the economy and what they have been getting (good numbers) has been fairly well publicized. What I want to do is answer the question as to why?

The numbers I find interesting are found here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

(click on "List of Countries by GDP")

The European union posted $16.2 trillion of GDP in 2010. Since most people expect that they will post a recessive growth in 2012 we can perhaps estimate the cost to the global economy from this decline. If the decline is 3% then we are talking $486 billion dollars of lost sales. 

Now when this is calculated over the global economy of $62.9 trillion, one can see that this reduction in growth in Europe should only cost about 0.8% reduction in global growth. Now when you consider that China, India and Brazil together posted over $16.1 trillion in GDP in 2010, and if they continue to grow at the average of 8%, that in itself will replace $1.28 trillion of revenue over the next year. That growth is 4 times the size of Greece's entire GDP for 2010.

Anyways, I am sure some lost revenue in Europe will cause some lost revenue around the world, but I doubt you will see a global recession from this unless the financial system freezes up again.

Just some interesting numbers for a Saturday afternoon.


----------



## sags

Germany issued Greece an ultimatum.

They want Greece to agree to give up their sovereignty and allow Europe to make all the financial decisions for Greece.

Greece politicians immediately refused the offer.

Greece would appear to be heading for a default, as the "talks" are getting nowhere.

Who has liability for credit default swaps............should get interesting.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-politely-declines-german-annexation-demands


----------



## ddkay

Here's a theory - the record number of euro shorts are investors who had a hedged portfolio of sovereign debt, but then their hedges (CDS insurance) were made void by policymakers. So they had to find new protection.

Even if there are only a few large investors that compromise the largest holders of Greece debt, they are accountable to hundreds of thousands of clients and will have to negotiate indemnity with them and /ignore/ the private placement memorandum exposing management to huge disaster liability.

In 2007/8 many investors who had CDS from AIG, Bears, Lehman found they were or would be unable to execute their insurance, their best laid plans became something other than intended. The answer was a less than orderly approach of selling short these companies as hedges against their impending defaults.

Despite the rally in the equity markets, euro short interest has been increasing to record highs each week. What we could be seeing is synthetic CDS applied via currencies, betting against the entire system.


----------



## ddkay

On again, off again, growth, talks, summits, dollar swaps, coffee, croissants, gryos, pressers, waffles, waffles, waffles, waffles


----------



## Belguy

Europe's problems are virtually unsolvable by dithering politicians who are more concerned with getting reelected than with solving the continent's financial mess.

The abyss is straight ahead!!!


----------



## Miser

Euro has made a spectacular rally in the last few weeks on not so much good news.
When is the anticipated fall?
I want to get back into DDR


----------



## Smoothie

Whew! ZeroHedge givin me a headache...

The Greek default looks imminent, as the Germans make nasty noises about controlling the pursestrings of profligate neighbours....history being what it is, the Greeks will take their soccer ball and head home, I believe. 

They will make the PSI deal, but fail to get the required participation from bondholders. (see here; courtesy of Barclays via ZeroHedge)

CDS will trigger.

Then, all the people who wrote CDS on Greek sovereign debt will owe.

Who wrote the CDS? 

Any smart financial types out there know where I can look this up? 

If it's the American banks, maybe SKF, the double inverse US Financials ETF might be worth a look at...


----------



## ddkay

It's important to re-iterate that participation number required there in the best case scenario. 95% participation or the CDS will trigger. There is no way they will achieve this. Even in the alternate scenarios, in one fashion or another Greece has defaulted and the CDS will trigger.

From a legal standpoint, funds with portfolios holding GGB have NO liability if they decline these "voluntary" cuts because they followed their memorandums exactly as set out. After this they can go after anyone they can get at to recover losses, Greece, ECB, 3 letter acronyms, CDS counterparties.

Accepting voluntary cuts of any kind will expose portfolio managers and institutions like IIF to being sued by their clients for not following their legal obligations or acting ethically.

When Greece CDS and other derivatives are forced to execute then it will be the same for Portgual, Spain, Italy and other countries not to mention financial institutions. The mad dash for cash will hapen when people realize there is not enough money in the system to settle these transactions.


----------



## ddkay

P.S. If I were you I would be careful buying these leveraged ETF thingamajigs anticipating any sort of event, if it takes too long for things to unfold the decay moves against you too fast. It might actually be a decent strategy to short these inverse ETFs in low volatility because over the long term they drop towards zero and need continuous reverse splits.


----------



## sags

So much different news coming out..........

I just read that Greek bondholders are willing to take less than 50 cents on the dollar. 

Why would debt holders agree, unless they have been told......no CDS for you.


----------



## Causalien

Last I checked, the European banks themselves are writing the CDs. Don't remember the source of this info.


----------



## Belguy

Pardon my Greek, but what a humungous mess!!!

The equivalent of the Great Depression of our times.

Keep your precious life savings safe!!!


----------



## kcowan

The correction has taken longer than I thought. Maybe investors don't realize how insolvent the banks are?


----------



## Miser

*Spain’s Unemployment levels continue to rise*
This morning Spain’s National Statistics Institute has announced that the unemployment rate rose in the fourth quarter of 2011 from an already very high 21.5% to 22.8%. This means that the number of unemployed has now risen above the 5 million mark to 5,273,600. Adding to the grim picture is that employment fell by 348,700 in the fourth quarter.

The unemployment picture in Spain has become symbolised most by the high rate of youth unemployment which has now risen to 51.4% for the 16 to 24 age group compared to 45.8% before. More than one in two is a chilling statistic which frankly is more akin to an economic depression than a recession.


How can you pay off debt when over 1 in 5 people are unemployed?
And increasing.
No way out for them now.


----------



## ddkay

PSI deal is supposed to reached by the end of this week, even though it was reached at the end of last week.

On Monday Greek PM, EU's Van Rompuy, Barroso, ECB's Asmussen have another summit that complements the summit from today. Here's the EU Council's 5 page growth plan for anyone that cares: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/127599.pdf


----------



## Belguy

When you have an economic union but no political union, what can you expect will happen?

Well, we are about to find out!!

Let me give you a hint---

The crisis worsens:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rtugals-economic-mess-worsens/article2319258/


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> The crisis worsens:


No the crisis remains the same. It has not gotten worse. It is just that the aweful news is getting reported...


----------



## fatcat

i heard on bloomberg that europe represents about 7% of the usa gdp

also, many american banks have hedged against european defaults

so the question really is, to what extent will this hurt north america ?

it won't be good but it looks survivable ....


----------



## OptsyEagle

fatcat said:


> i heard on bloomberg that europe represents about 7% of the usa gdp
> 
> also, many american banks have hedged against european defaults
> 
> so the question really is, to what extent will this hurt north america ?
> 
> it won't be good but it looks survivable ....


So if Europe has a recession and their GDP declines by, let's say 4%, then the US will lose 4% of 7% = 0.28% growth. EWWW, how will they ever recover from that?


----------



## ddkay

The concern is not if Europe will have a recession, it's in a recession and will continue to be with the proposed austerity measures. The concern is the DIRE scenario where 95% of institutional investors do not "voluntarily" take over a 70% loss on debt swaps and the CDS will trigger sometime before March 2012.

Evangelos Venizelos
17:58 We are one step - I would say it is a formality- away from finalising. The next few days will determine what happens over the coming decade.
18:05 A meeting of the Eurogroup should take place on Monday, February 6, during which a series of subjects will be discussed, and I hope there will be decisions.


----------



## OptsyEagle

ddkay said:


> The concern is not if Europe will have a recession, it's in a recession and will continue to be with the proposed austerity measures. The concern is the DIRE scenario where 95% of institutional investors do not "voluntarily" take over a 70% loss on debt swaps and the CDS will trigger sometime before March 2012.
> 
> Evangelos Venizelos
> 17:58 We are one step - I would say it is a formality- away from finalising. The next few days will determine what happens over the coming decade.
> 18:05 A meeting of the Eurogroup should take place on Monday, February 6, during which a series of subjects will be discussed, and I hope there will be decisions.


and how does that effect a company in Idaho that makes widgits?


----------



## ddkay

How did it effect them in 2008? Nothing really changed, the bank their banks bank borrows money from wrote those CDS and went kaput


----------



## newbie

ddkay said:


> How did it effect them in 2008? Nothing really changed, the bank their banks bank borrows money from wrote those CDS and went kaput


mkts are not ready to give up gains yet.
primary trading desks are still covering.
there was enough bad macroeconomic news to drag it down.
short covering continues


----------



## Belguy

European unemployment soars:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rope-rethinks-austerity-moves/article2320585/

And the beat goes on!!


----------



## Smoothie

It's fascinating on the sidelines, interesting, suspenseful, and a real learning experience. 

I guess all these kinda things happen in a slo-mo. Reading all the financial blogs you get the feeling that tomorrow Europe will collapse...then they schedule another meeting. This, I suppose, is how these crises evolve...

I see this catastrophe happening and I realize this is a big economic event in my lifetime, and that I am well-positioned to make lots of money out of it if I can figure out how...seems very macabre, like rejoicing in the start of a war cuz I own defence stocks or something. 

People in Europe will go through much pain, the Greeks are already there. I just thank the fates that it ain't me and mine over there. And I wonder what the floating mass of financial detritus will bring to our shores, so to speak...

Some deserve pain: the rulers of Spain who let youth unemployment get to 50% deserve, frankly, to be jailed for incompetence.


----------



## Dibs

Smoothie said:


> I see this catastrophe happening and I realize this is a big economic event in my lifetime, and that I am well-positioned to make lots of money out of it if I can figure out how...seems very macabre, like rejoicing in the start of a war cuz I own defence stocks or something.


Well I don't think you are alone. As a new investor with money to deploy, I feel happier when the stock markets are going down.


----------



## ddkay

Before 2008 almost half of Spain lived off renting their 1 million euro studios


----------



## OptsyEagle

Smoothie said:


> I see this catastrophe happening and I realize this is a big economic event in my lifetime, and that I am well-positioned to make lots of money out of it if I can figure out how...


Good luck with that.

The problem with these things is that when the news is bad and the stocks are going down, people feel comfortable on the sidelines holding their cash waiting for the best buying opportunity. Many do not realize, however, that if they are sitting on the sidelines waiting, because the news is very bad, if they want to invest their cash somewhere near the bottom, they are going to have to invest it, when the news gets a lot worse. How do you do that? It's a contradiction in strategy.

You see, the stocks will rise, long before the news gets much better. I sometimes have thought that the news only gets better because the stocks are rising. The good news was always there, but when stocks are declining, investors only believe the bad news. It gets reversed in an up stock market, but it is usually too late for most people timing it.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Or to put in another way: if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.


----------



## Belguy

Well, we've just experienced the best starting month for stocks since 1994!

http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1377-akWCMY3dLYEg-76Q55M6BTH8TS7SS8UHUCBPA60

I long ago came to the conclusion that I cannot time the markets and that I also wanted minimize my fees, including trading fees, and so, for better or worse, for richer or poorer, till death do me part, I have decided to stay fully invested through all market conditions.

Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that I worry a lot amid all of the negative news.

Successful investing is often counter intuitive to our human emotions.

Buy, hold, worry, and prosper.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Belguy said:


> Well, we've just experienced the best starting month for stocks since 1994!
> 
> http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1377-akWCMY3dLYEg-76Q55M6BTH8TS7SS8UHUCBPA60
> 
> I long ago came to the conclusion that I cannot time the markets and that I also wanted minimize my fees, including trading fees, and so, for better or worse, for richer or poorer, till death do me part, I have decided to stay fully invested through all market conditions.
> 
> Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that I worry a lot amid all of the negative news.
> 
> Successful investing is often counter intuitive to our human emotions.
> 
> Buy, hold, worry, and prosper.


Well said. lol


----------



## Kim

Interesting perspective OptsyEagle summed up quite nicely by CC and a good synopsis of what I have been doing....this is month 7 after the initial fall in Aug 2011, I was thinking by now that something in Europe would have happened and I was waiting on the sidelines cash in hand. 

Nothing lost and a lesson learned!


----------



## Sampson

I saw those posts about markets being down and I also got confused. Which markets are down?

We aren't that far away from the all time highs, they are within 10-15% of present situation.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Sampson said:


> I saw those posts about markets being down and I also got confused. Which markets are down?
> 
> We aren't that far away from the all time highs, they are within 10-15% of present situation.


Yes, but they were down. Unfortuneately at that time the news was a lot worse and it appeared they were going to go down a lot more. But they didn't, they went up. Hmmm. Someone just posted something about that phenomenon recently.

Anyway. The future is uncertain and new news, good or bad, can come out at anytime. My main point is the bottoms are always hard to see (just like the last one formed in Sept.2011 was) because at the bottom, the news is always at its worse.


----------



## Belguy

Greece may need $20 BILLION more!!

http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2012/02/02/greece-likely-to-need-20-billion-more/ 

Interesting times!!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203889904577199132777304736.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

And we haven't even addressed the problems of Spain, Portugal, Italy, the U.S. etc., etc.


----------



## somecanuck

Kind of a side note to this, but does anyone else consider these countries a great place to travel in the next few years? As long as you avoid the worst of the political unrest. I can almost smell the cheaper prices.


----------



## Dibs

Argentina was a very cheap place to travel after their default in 2003 and their currency devaluing to 30% of the pre default value. If something similar happens in europe, then maybe yes.


----------



## Miser

Got back from 4 weeks in Italy in Sept/Oct.......wasn't cheap at all.
Wasn't too busy either(except Rome and Venice)


----------



## londoncalling

I can see there being opportunities for deals on travel similar to the current cost of going to US destinations such as FLA or Vegas provided things don't get crazy with strikes, protests and general revolt etc... Also wonder what will happen to real estate on that side of the pond... any insights or ideas on possible outcome?


----------



## Belguy

Germany rules!!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-pushes-euro-zone-to-the-edge/article2334717/


----------



## doctrine

All of Europe is a lot cheaper with the Euro at 1.3x Cdn; but if Greece went to the drachma, it would instantly become 70-80% cheaper. I would be there in a second, I've been to Greece before with the Euro at 1.7x and it was cheap even then.


----------



## Belguy

Why doesn't Greece just sell some of it's islands in order to raise whatever money it needs?


----------



## kcowan

I think it is because they are not looking for real solutions, just another handout.


----------



## Miser

kcowan said:


> I think it is because they are not looking for real solutions, just another handout.


I don't think there are any solutions except complete default/bankrupcy and start again. That is unpalatable for the rest of the Euro Zone.


----------



## uptoolate

One has to wonder whether it was ever a good idea to bring countries with such incredibly different cultural values together in the first place. Seemed like such a great idea at the time!


----------



## Belguy

Greece lied to get into the EU but the EU just overlooked it at the time and now the time has come to pay the piper.

The next few days and weeks should be 'interesting' to say the least!!


----------



## Dibs

The vote in parliament on the latest austerity bill is set for today at midnight, (22:00 GMT, or 5PM EST). 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17003432


----------



## ddkay

It passed, rally time!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Even if they burn the country down?


----------



## humble_pie

globe's eric reguly tweets from athens. Says mobs are destroying the city, streets look cluster bombed.

http://twitter.com/ereguly

ddkay i have some shares of ing & they have been twitching with kneejerk precision like a marionette. Although this bank is said to have little exposure to Ellas, more to spain & portugal.


----------



## Miser

Belguy said:


> Greece lied to get into the EU but the EU just overlooked it at the time and now the time has come to pay the piper.
> 
> The next few days and weeks should be 'interesting' to say the least!!


Completely true!

Euro is going down.....DRR-N is where I am.


----------



## dogleg

Belguy, when you started this thread back in November did you think things would go this far by February ? But I guess O'Leary would say 'forget them' they are 'nothingburgers'. However, can we afford that luxury. We are all at the mercy of bad government; people who think in the short- term and what is best for them. Once they leave with their pockets full, let somebody else deal with it seems to be the attitude. The one controlling factor that always comes into play is the self-interest of the international network of financiers. You can bet they are working mightily in the background to restore financial order. Carroll Quigley in his book "Tragedy and Hope" (which was suppressed) explains very well how they have created a system of financial control able to dominate the political systems of all countries through their central banks .It might take them a while but they have more power than any government. Worth reading if you can find a copy. Some universities still have it.


----------



## ddkay

Those pictures of Greece on TV are no big deal, that's just their social fabric devolving into anarchy. It happens all the time. So what if there's a few buildings burned to a pulp, think of the clean up crews working over time, if that is not job creation I do not know what is.

With the austerity measures now approved by politicians that have no skin in the game, in few years they will get right back to growth. We are just waiting on the debt overhang ahem bondholders to accept a 70% plus loss on their bonds and write off on swaps.

In all seriousness the people of Greece have no moral requirement to follow the austerity measures, like the last time, when you owe billions of dollars, at the end of that day it's not your problem, it's the banks. Just look at washed up celebrities like Donald Trump. LOL!


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> those pictures of greece on tv are no big deal, that's just their social fabric devolving into anarchy. It happens all the time. So what if there's a few buildings burned to a pulp, think of the clean up crews working over time, *if that is not job creation i do not know what is.*


Rofl.


----------



## dogleg

ddkay: Your sardonic twist is interesting. However, the question remains is it the people who are to blame or the government -if you can separate the two. I tend to blame government as they are the ones who have all the power- it is always about power. For example, the debate rages about the US housing debacle ; do you blame the borrower or the lender ? I suppose the answer shows up in who ended up with all the money . In my experience upon living and working in a few countries from the very rich to the very poor ( $600. a year per family) it was always those in power who caused the problems. The debate goes on !


----------



## Belguy

I am no economist, but I do a lot of reading on the subject of the global economy and not much of it gives me any cause for optimism in what I have referred to in my topic as 'the lost generation'. It is amazing to me that, when all is said and done, the world economy is so fragile mainly thanks to the human nature of spending beyond one's means. It is also obvious that we can't afford many of the social programs that we have but that doesn't stop people from voting for the politicians that promise them the most with no plan about how to pay for it. Simply put, the good times are now coming to an end. I have no idea of what effect this will have on the stock markets longer term but I can't think that it will be very positive. Equity markets cannot be expected to do well during long periods of deleveraging such as we now face. During the 2008 recession, at least we were able to balance equity losses with gains on our fixed income allocation. However, we don't even have that to hang our hats on as interest rates begin to rise. Even now, many people are in debt up to their ears and, when those rates do inevitably start to rise, watch out!! All in all, it is not a very pretty picture! As it stands, the Euro zone could still disintegrate and take the world's economy, fragile as it is, down with it.

Keep your money safe!!!


----------



## dogcom

The problems in Greece are just the beginning because this road show is also coming to the US if they don't get serious about their debt and problems. 

The old saying goes that when people lose everything and have nothing left to lose then they lose it.


----------



## Belguy

Greece problems are by no means solved--

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-need-for-third-greek-bailout/article2336112/

And the problem is spreading--

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-ratings-of-france-uk-austria/article2337062/

Keep your hard earned savings safe especially if you are of the retired persuasion.


----------



## newbie

dogcom said:


> The problems in Greece are just the beginning because this road show is also coming to the US if they don't get serious about their debt and problems.
> 
> The old saying goes that when people lose everything and have nothing left to lose then they lose it.


dog
i am starting to believe in this bull run.
it just does not stop snorting.
i think i am going to buy me some length in AAPL
today's cuts apparently are also priced in .
Japan's numbers totally ignored.
italian banks downgraded, who cares.
So basically the whole world is Junk material .
1500SPX here we go


----------



## dogcom

Newbie you now believe in the bull run after being short last month. When the bears finally cave in and go long then that is often when a bull market ends.

The market is in a strong seasonal time and it doesn't take much to rally it. The same news you mention above will clobber the market if it is overbought in May. We get risk on risk off and money just goes here or there or wherever and there doesn't really seem to be any good reasons for it going either way.

I came to the conclusion a year ago that it doesn't pay to be bullish or bearish in this market. Instead it seems to pay buying decent companies with something going for them or if they are in a strong season when they are oversold.


----------



## newbie

dogcom said:


> Newbie you now believe in the bull run after being short last month. When the bears finally cave in and go long then that is often when a bull market ends.
> 
> The market is in a strong seasonal time and it doesn't take much to rally it. The same news you mention above will clobber the market if it is overbought in May. We get risk on risk off and money just goes here or there or wherever and there doesn't really seem to be any good reasons for it going either way.
> 
> I came to the conclusion a year ago that it doesn't pay to be bullish or bearish in this market. Instead it seems to pay buying decent companies with something going for them or if they are in a strong season when the are oversold.


was just joking bro.
i am out of faz way back when it traded above 30 bux.
made 1 dollar only and almost lost quite a bit of money.
i can call this trade a lucky one since i did not lose money and basically broke even.
bad bad call from my end, and that is what happens when you loose sense of the irrational moves the mkt can put you through.
not trading this mkt.
are u holding anything?
GLTY


----------



## fatcat

Belguy said:


> Greece problems are by no means solved--
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-need-for-third-greek-bailout/article2336112/Keep your hard earned savings safe especially if you are of the retired persuasion.


that's the rub and explains why people are buying 30 year treasurys that pay nothing ...what is safe ? ...where do you keep safe money if government backing increasingly means nothing ? ... 

i assume greeks have an equivalent to a GIC ?, how are all the greek savers feeling about their "guaranteed" GIC's ? ... 

more and more i view large multinational corporations as the safest place to place your money and probably as good a bet to get it back as any guarantee by, say, the government of portugal or italy or ???? ... 

big companies and tangible useful commodities

this of course, is the argument for buying and holding gold ...

if you then buy that argument, can you be sure that your gold won't be taken away ? (assuming like most people you hold paper that says you own gold .... no, not paper, you actually "own" the right to view a denominated set of electrical pulses which themselves are viewable using another set of electrical pulses, namely your password)

all the government of canada has to do is pass a single law "national and fiscal security" ... blah blah blah"

of course, you can bury it in your yard but since owning it will be illegal and it'll be worth thousands an ounce, how do you safely transact with it ?

where is "safe" belguy ? ...


----------



## Miser

I would rather have something of value that I am trying to hide(in the yard) rather than something that is worthless in the bank(cash)

Most illegal things are transacted. 

This stuff is a long way from happening(if ever)....gold is not a bad hedge for hell.
Along the road you can sell if needed.


----------



## Belguy

They're pushing this to the edge!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...reece-and-euro-zone-in-danger/article2337916/


----------



## newbie

Belguy said:


> They're pushing this to the edge!!:
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...reece-and-euro-zone-in-danger/article2337916/


are u for real man?
have u noticed that this mkt does not give a hoot about anything anymore?
its running on liquidity.
u should enjoy ur ride.
after all u have quite a portion in stocks


----------



## dogleg

I think there is a lot of truth in what you say. Most of the trades are computer generated (about two thirds I think) and the average trade period is just a few seconds. So we are all victims or beneficiaries of someone's algorithm.


----------



## Miser

newbie said:


> are u for real man?
> have u noticed that this mkt does not give a hoot about anything anymore?
> *its running on liquidity.*
> u should enjoy ur ride.
> after all u have quite a portion in stocks


Yup, artificial stimulus.


----------



## Belguy

The stock market and the economy are not the same thing. What is currently happening in the economy is not always reflected in what is currently happening with the stock market. Sometimes, for example, factors are already baked in to the markets ahead of their actual occurrance.

I wonder if an Iran/Israel/U.S. war is already baked in??


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> I wonder if an Iran/Israel/U.S. war is already baked in??


Do you really need to wonder Belguy? No, it isn't.


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> The stock market and the economy are not the same thing. What is currently happening in the economy is not always reflected in what is currently happening with the stock market. Sometimes, for example, factors are already baked in to the markets ahead of their actual occurrance.


This is the way it's supposed to be.

The stock market is always ahead of the economic cycle. The stock market is forward looking and is based just as much on future assumptions as facts.


----------



## dave2012

Spent a lot of time reading this very long thread lol.

Quite interesting, good to have Belguy keeping on top of the Euro mess for us!

On the positive, since the start of this thread the S&P 500 is up 12% (for now).


----------



## Belguy

It ain't over yet!! Heck, it's just begun!! Hang onto your seats for an exciting ride ahead!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...t-greece-is-still-a-time-bomb/article2349487/


----------



## ddkay




----------



## Belguy

I'm not saying that the end is at hand (unless Israel invades Iran and then all bets are off!) but neither is the European debt problem anywhere close to being solved and there is still the very real possibility that it could get very ugly before it is all over.

Sleep well!!


----------



## humble_pie

off with his head, cried the Red Queen.

it's the standard punishment for plagiarism, she added, gazing sternly at the Dormouse.

ash-white with fear, the Dormouse was mumbling hangontoyourseatbelts & it'snotgoingtobepretty & they'repushingthistotheedge, when Tweedledum gave him a smart little push.

there you go, said Tweedledum.

under the bed, said Tweedledee.


----------



## kcowan

humble_pie said:


> under the bed, said Tweedledee.


Thanks for catching my sentiments, HP.


----------



## Belguy

So, I haven't checked for a while but am wondering how things are working out over in Europe.

Has everything been resolved over there? Are we back on firm footing?

Has the Greek problem been worked out and default avoided?

Or, are we still on the edge of an abyss??

This should prove to be an interesting month to say the least!!!


----------



## Sampson

Everything has been resolved. I woke up this morning, the World has not ended, I'm pretty sure I will also wake up tomorrow morning.


----------



## Belguy

Just so long as you don't wake up in the morning in Greece and discover that you are a Greek!!!


----------



## dave2012

Sampson said:


> Everything has been resolved. I woke up this morning, the World has not ended, I'm pretty sure I will also wake up tomorrow morning.


I think there is supposed to be another 290 days before the end of the world. Shortly after the US elects a new (or same) president.

We only have 290 days to get our portfolios straightened out!


----------



## Belguy

President Mitt or President Newt will take care of us!!!


----------



## Barwelle

Oh gosh... Newt...

Does anyone else get the impression that he's another 'dubya'?


----------



## ddkay

Who's Matt Romney?


----------



## Belguy

Hi, this is Europe speaking! Remember me?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ses-spectre-of-troika-bailout/article2391076/


----------



## Cal

I was just thinking the other day how the media has all but forgotten the European debt issues....the story really seems to have taken a back seat.


----------



## blin10

Cal said:


> I was just thinking the other day how the media has all but forgotten the European debt issues....the story really seems to have taken a back seat.


they're loading up shorts, then you will see "europe crisis is back" headlines everywhere


----------



## Belguy

Europe will be having it's effects on equity markets for many years going forward. The times they have changed!!! We live in a world of uncertainty and market volatility will be the norm for those who can stomach it or who have a long time horizon. On the other hand, for those adverse to volatility or who are invested in equities and have a shorter time horizon, consider taking defensive steps to preserve your hard-earned life's savings.


----------



## kcowan

Or resign yourself to watching your equity portion melt down appropriately.


----------



## Belguy

Europe. It's back on the front burner:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-debt-auction-rattles-markets/article2391527/


----------



## Belguy

Beware of Spain (and Italy etc.):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/anxiety-stalks-global-markets/article2397311/


----------



## Belguy

The pain in Spain will be felt not only on the plain:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-pain-in-spain-is-likely-to-worsen/article2399158/


----------



## scomac

My God Belguy, you never change. You remind me of that peanuts character who had a rain cloud over his head constantly. Are you getting paid to ratchet up the angst level? :eek2:


----------



## Jon_Snow

I think he's on the Globe and Mail payroll... he's paid to divert traffic to their site. These G&M links are becoming incessant....


----------



## Belguy

We are five years into a lost decade which could well extend beyond that. Realize it and deal with it or hide your head in the sand. If you are young, you may be able to out wait this crisis but, if you are already retired, it could hardly have come at a worse time because the deleveraging will last longer than your personal timeline. Tell me where I am wrong!!


----------



## kcowan

You are wrong because you continually obsess about things you cant control. You can control your expenses and the amount of equity downside that you have in your portfolio. Everything else is just a bunch of blather...


----------



## Nemo2

scomac said:


> You remind me of that peanuts character who had a rain cloud over his head constantly.


Lil Abner.....Joe Btfsplk IIRC :wink:

(Hey, Scott.)


----------



## Belguy

Belguy "blathers" while kcowan submits only intelligent, in depth thoughts. Well, we can't all be smart!!


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> Belguy "blathers" while kcowan submits only intelligent, in depth thoughts. Well, we can't all be smart!!


Thank BG. I see you are finally "getting it".


----------



## Belguy

I doubt if I am telling you anything that you don't already know--which is apparently pretty much everything. Nuff said.


----------



## kcowan

There is plenty I don't know about. You will not see me in threads about that unless I am there to learn.

I don't do options or LEAPs or warrants, for example, although I am investigating warrants thanks to Rachelle.
I don't own investment real estate.
I don't have US investments other than in Canadian discount brokers. I did have a US escrow account for our Mexican purchase. So I know about ITINs.
I don't have any relative in a nursing home. MIL died while in a hospice.

I could go on but just illustrating that because it might have escaped your powers of observation/reading.

(QED!)


----------



## Belguy

And the last word goes to Keith!!


----------



## zylon

*exuberance: the state of being exuberant*

Shake of those dust bunnies, O ye of little faith!



Code:


TSX    +130
DOW    +200
gold  1,650
oil     104 
Cdn$   1.01
natgas 1.96

Everything's green except natgas, and even that can be interpreted as being of net benefit
for the economy; perhaps not for an individual's energy portfolio in the short term.










Now back to regularly scheduled programming:
*Europe and the lost decade*.


----------



## Toronto.gal

You had to have the last word, didn't you Zylon? Oh wait, I guess I'm the one. :biggrin:


----------



## zylon

*Toronto.gal*










... and here's one of those gloomy pics from Europe:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DEO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p93002804230

oh wait ... is London in Europe?

http://www.diageo.com/en-row/Pages/default.aspx


----------



## Toronto.gal

Looks like it might be a good time to pick-up some European ETF's. :wink:


----------



## zylon

*Is Spain the next Greece? (video)*

Concise "_Market Minutes_" for Apr 16 from Tyler Bollhorn (< 9 minutes)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXfbp59YIdU&feature=youtu.be


----------



## zylon

*European Parliament, Strasbourg, 18 April 2012*



> Sir, Britain is not trapped inside the economic prison of the Euro.
> ...
> Mercifully, outside of this institution, economists the world over now say that it is inevitable that the Euro will break up. It is just a question of how. And I really hope that the IMF now decide to stop pouring good money after bad into these bailouts and I really do hope that not one penny piece more of British taxpayers' money goes into propping something up that should be allowed to die."
> *~Nigel Farage*


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llDYLb7HoIk
- full transcript under "show more" tab.


----------



## Belguy

The coming depression:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob.../decoupling-no-depression-yes/article2420499/


----------



## Jon_Snow

Like clockwork, Belguy.


----------



## Belguy

Heh, I don't MAKE the news, I only report it!! Where do you think that this European mess is taking us and what is going to happen in the U.S. as soon as the election is over?


----------



## Belguy

From the Washington Post: Eurozone unemployment rose to a 15-year high and manufacturing contracted for a ninth month, adding to signs the economic slump is deepening. The jobless rate in the 17-nation economic union rose to 10.9 per cent in March and that's the highest it has been since April, 1997. Euro-zone manufacturing contracted more than originally estimated in April and unemployment in Germany, the region's largest economy unexpectedly increased. Survey measures of hiring intentions point to further increases in unemployment over the coming months (years?) and is soon expected to breach the 11 per cent threshhold. In Europe, the debt crisis is curbing demand for goods. Manufacturers are also facing pressure from rising costs. Spain had the region's highest unemployment rate in March at 24.1 per cent.

--from the Washington Post.

And the beat goes on!!

I was reading Dilbert today and Alice was telling the pointy headed boss that she lives in a rented trailer and all of her money is in her checking account. She then reminded her boss that his investments had all become virtually worthless and his mortgage is underwater and so, in fact, her net worth was now higher than his. 

The moral of the story is that it might be best to just rent your accommodations and keep all of your money in a checking account at your friendly, neighbourhood bank.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Belguy said:


> From the Washington Post: Eurozone unemployment rose to a 15-year high and manufacturing contracted for a ninth month, adding to signs the economic slump is deepening. The jobless rate in the 17-nation economic union rose to 10.9 per cent in March and that's the highest it has been since April, 1997. Euro-zone manufacturing contracted more than originally estimated in April and unemployment in Germany, the region's largest economy unexpectedly increased. Survey measures of hiring intentions point to further increases in unemployment over the coming months (years?) and is soon expected to breach the 11 per cent threshhold. In Europe, the debt crisis is curbing demand for goods. Manufacturers are also facing pressure from rising costs. Spain had the region's highest unemployment rate in March at 24.1 per cent.
> 
> --from the Washington Post.
> 
> ....
> And the beat goes on!!
> 
> I was reading Dilbert today and Alice was telling the pointy headed boss that she lives in a rented trailer and all of her money is in her checking account. She then reminded her boss that his investments had all become virtually worthless and his mortgage is underwater and so, in fact, her net worth was now higher than his.
> 
> The moral of the story is that it might be best to just rent your accommodations and keep all of your money in a checking account at your friendly, neighbourhood bank.



well if u go with warren buffett good ole saying .....
"buy when others fear"
anybody buying today:encouragement:?
just saying...


----------



## K-133

Belguy said:


> The moral of the story is that it might be best to just rent your accommodations and keep all of your money in a checking account at your *friendly*, *neighbourhood *bank.


I didn't know that those still existed :stupid:


----------



## Belguy

Just as predicted, down we go:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...omy-worsens-markedly-in-april/article2422466/

This is not going to end well, folks!!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Belguy said:


> Just as predicted, down we go:
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...omy-worsens-markedly-in-april/article2422466/
> 
> This is not going to end well, folks!!



belguy.
the selloff today was a mini sellof .
nothing tanked 500 points......yet.
i hope it does.
it creates very, very good buying opportunities.
Vix hovering around 20's.
we need the extreme volatilty, where nobody knows what to do.
Gl anyway


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> This is not going to end well, folks!!


So it holds for us poor mortal beings.


----------



## ddkay

In less than 48 hours we will know the results of Greece elections and the final France elections


----------



## Belguy

That picture reminds me a bit of a train wreck!!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

ddkay said:


> In less than 48 hours we will know the results of Greece elections and the final France elections


i think we r all waiting for something that will not affect at all the mkts:greedy_dollars:


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Belguy said:


> That picture reminds me a bit of a train wreck!!


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...y-in-shift-of-power-to-french-socialists.html
now what?
like i said before , smart money is in the bond markets.
i will stick with the smart money.


----------



## marina628

France has new President ,now what?lol


----------



## moneyisfornothing

marina628 said:


> France has new President ,now what?lol


marina
he is a socialist president and totally against what germany is doing.
as for greece .... well greece is anarchy.
this is political now.
that is why i said ..... now what.
if u believe that placing a socialist president has no effect in the mkts , we are bound to see right?
it looks like u do not believe in bond traders.
but that is ok... the next 2 months will tell.
nothing to do with the nythical "sell in may and go away".
and by the way , not many exceptional news from the US this coming week.
the main driver will be europe, and as we speak in my live chart the euro already went down before mkts open.
i am sure you know what that means right?
GL in ur trades anyway


p.s. as for greece u should look into who New dawn is plus all the parties disagreements.
actually Greece's vote is IMo even more important than france's poll results.


----------



## webber22

moneyisfornothing said:


> ... ....


Aren't you the guy that put hundreds of thousands into FAZ and TZA bear etfs only to see them disintegrate in half ?


----------



## Belguy

The French elect the Socialists who espouse the very economic policies that brought Europe to the mess that they find themselves in today. How bright is that? However, the Americans elected a socialist President the last time out and so the French are entitled to make the same mistake. The world is going to hell in a handbasket. We are witnessing an economic train wreck which will not end well.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Belguy said:


> The French elect the Socialists who espouse the very economic policies that brought Europe to the mess that they find themselves in today. How bright is that? However, the Americans elected a socialist President the last time out and so the French are entitled to make the same mistake. The world is going to hell in a handbasket. We are witnessing an economic train wreck which will not end well.


well 
just look at electronic trading of commodities as we speak.
tomorrow will be very very interesting.
GLTY
cheers:hopelessness:
and as i said the dollar is already hovering around 80, but RSI on it is bordering 62.
oil will probably hover round 95 bux.
my real barometer for wti is Brent which truly tells the value of oil IMO.
the spread has actually widened.

let the games begin.:greedy_dollars:
just take a peak at the futures in the us mkt.
every single fund that made this fake rally happen unloaded tons of stocks on retail investors.
the smart money has left the table at least one month ago with skinny trading on alll stock exchanges.
i wonder what is everyone going to do when this thing really retraces 10-30%.
keep holding the bag.


----------



## Belguy

European markets are not looking pretty.

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/world_charts.html

--Sorry, Friday's results.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

any reason why they should?
cmon Bel.
u have a socialist president taking over.
total disarray in greece.
what does a large investor do?
they sell......
lets see tomorrow.
it is too early to really have an idea as to how things will develop.


----------



## Belguy

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/07/markets-japan-stocks-idUSL4E8G700620120507


----------



## moneyisfornothing

nice..... 2.4% down :greedy_dollars:


----------



## Belguy

Are we experiencing a permanent structural change to the economy?

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters/article/1173584--jobs-malaise-heading-this-way


----------



## humble_pie

i've always liked ségolène royal, the socialist candidate & mother of 4 who ran against nicolas sarkozy for president in 2007, won the hearts of left & right when she visited quebec, but lost the election.

turns out ségolène never left politics. The father of her children is new french president françois hollande, although they've been separated, not too amicably, for years.

it was ségolène who sniffed about françois, during this year's presidential primaries, "can the French people name a single thing he [hollande] has achieved in 30 years in politics."

who knows, it might have been ségolène, too, who coined the new president's nickname: monsieur Flanby.*

but now there are signs the separated pair are making up, although only on the political front. Ségolène campaigned side-by-side with monsieur Flanby in marseille & paris. Reportedly, in exchange she wants to be named president of the national assembly, if the socialists win the june 2012 election.

way to go, ségolène. Allez les premières femmes.

* another french nickname with a culinary reference; at least one cmf member has a talent for translating these


----------



## Four Pillars

humble_pie said:


> i've always liked ségolène royal, the socialist candidate & mother of 4 who ran against nicolas sarkozy for president in 2007, won the hearts of left & right when she visited quebec, but lost the election.
> 
> turns out ségolène never left politics. The father of her children is new french president françois hollande, although they've been separated, not too amicably, for years.
> 
> it was ségolène who sniffed about françois, during this year's presidential primaries, "can the French people name a single thing he [hollande] has achieved in 30 years in politics."
> 
> who knows, it might have been ségolène, too, who coined the new president's nickname: monsieur Flanby.*
> 
> but now there are signs the separated pair are making up, although only on the political front. Ségolène campaigned side-by-side with monsieur Flanby in marseille & paris. Reportedly, in exchange she wants to be named president of the national assembly, if the socialists win the june 2012 election.
> 
> way to go, ségolène. Allez les premières femmes.
> 
> * another french nickname with a culinary reference; at least one cmf member has a talent for translating these


Are they the French equivalent of "Bill & Hilary"?


----------



## Belguy

This European mess is going to be with us for a l-o-o-o-o-n-g time and so will it's effects on the equity markets.

Translation: It will be influencing the equity markets for years to come.

In many ways, we are back to the 70's.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/11/markets/seventies/index.htm

---"You'll never get rich, you son-of-a-*****, you're in the markets now".


----------



## Cal

Belguy. Greece is on their own. Everybody knows this. Don't pay attention to the news.

What do you own that is manfactured in Greece? And did the company you worked for sell items to Greece? I can't think of anything I own that was made there, and I owrk in health care so no real impacton my field.

So then what do you have when there is a bunch of jittery people who panick in the markets. If you have any extra cash...buy a few shares and sit on them for a bit and make a few dollars. If the markets are going up and down, as you anticipate....buy low, sell high. Some of us have been waiting for this opportunity....

Having said that, I am actually hoping that Greece will default on some of their bonds. It wont' be fun for bond holders but it will help to move this issue along.


----------



## Sampson

I hope we do have sideways markets for a while. Think of what all the dollars invested during a flat 70's turned into during the 80's. Probably many a millionaire was made that way. Notice the log scale, it means money invested in now would pay off by at least one order of magnitude in say 10-15 years.


----------



## Miser

Greece is the budgie in the coal mine.
When it dies others will fall.
Euro Zone knows this and will do what they can to save the Euro.
Credit swap..... hair cuts....etc.
Spain economy shrinking by 25%
Dooooomed......just when?


----------



## Cal

^ Agreed. Italy and Spain are a bigger issue than Greece.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...arket-be-worried-about-greece/article2427936/


----------



## Belguy

I remember reading one prediction from I don't know who that the markets would likely rally in the first part of this year and that would produce the last opportunity to pull out of them before they start to go down again. So far, that is proving to be true.

From the Toronto Star: Greek turmoil erases five months of market gains amid surging eurozone fears. Five months of slow, steady gains on the stock market--wiped out over fears for the future of the euro. The Spanish market is down 20 per cent YTD. Investors are running for cover. It just shows how interconnected markets now are in this globalized economy. The TSX is now down 2.3 per cent on the year due to falling prices for oil, metals, and other commodities as investors shunned risky assets and flocked to safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries. The Canadian dollar also closed below parity. Risk aversion is becoming the name of the game resulting in a risk sell-off which has undermined equities, undermined commodities, and pulled the Canadian dollar along for the ride according to Mark Chandler, head of Canadian strategy at RBC Dominion Securities.

---It's a good thing that I am not the type to say "I told you so" but you might refer back to my comments throughout this thread.

This is not going to end well.


----------



## Toronto.gal

You need to forget about 'Europe & the Lost Decade' for a little while and write some light-hearted comments every now & then.

When was the last time you smiled Belguy?


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> This is not going to end well.


It will end VERY well for those accumulating equity investments now.

I can only imagine what they will call the next decade....
maybe...

"Returns are White Hot 2020's"


----------



## Belguy

Markets rebounded a bit today and so I am smiling!!!

But then, there is always tomorrow to worry about.:frown:


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> Markets rebounded a bit today and so I am smiling!!!
> 
> But then, there is always tomorrow to worry about.:frown:


SELL SELL SELL !!! You cannot risk your future !!!


----------



## Belguy

Was it Michael J. Fox who once said something like, if you always worry about the worst happening, when it finally does, you will have suffered twice or something to that effect.

Setting aside any realistic potential scenarios as it relates to Europe, maybe when all is said and done, it would be better to stop stewing about it and just live with whatever ultimately develops.

I realize that I am perhaps the last person who should be offering this advice.


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> Setting aside any realistic potential scenarios as it relates to Europe, maybe when all is said and done, it would be better to stop stewing about it and just live with whatever ultimately develops.
> 
> I realize that I am perhaps the last person who should be offering this advice.


Not at all, especially if you intend to take it. :surprise:


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## OptsyEagle

Nice to see a politician representing the people. The world needs a few more of them.

http://sorisomail.com/email/238743/o-politico-que-representa-realmente-a-populacao.html


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## Nemo2

OptsyEagle said:


> Nice to see a politician representing the people. The world needs a few more of them.
> 
> http://sorisomail.com/email/238743/o-politico-que-representa-realmente-a-populacao.html


I think, IF I were to reside in Britain, I'd be a UKIP supporter.


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## Spidey

OptsyEagle said:


> Nice to see a politician representing the people. The world needs a few more of them.
> 
> http://sorisomail.com/email/238743/o-politico-que-representa-realmente-a-populacao.html


That clip should be required viewing for all our provincial and federal politicians.


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## Belguy

I would be interested in hearing the latest thoughts from those who have not been all that concerned about the European debt crisis up until now. Have your opinions changed? Are you becoming any more concerned? Do you think that this now has the potential of spiraling out of control? How do you think that this will affect the world markets going forward? Are you concerned that Asian growth is now slowing? Do you feel that the mess in one of the world's greatest economic areas will spread around the world? Where do you feel that the stock markets are headed in the next few months and beyond? Do you think that we are in and economic era of slowing growth? Or, do you think that this is just a short term problem that the markets will overcome in short order? In other words, are the European and U.S. debt problems just so much short term noise that should be ignored? I am particularly interested in hearing the latest thoughts from the eternal optimists out there that might put a positive spin on what is evolving in Europe. Can the markets rebound in the next few years and go on to greater heights or are we indeed in the midst of a lost decade for stocks? Are you still optimistic?


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## Toronto.gal

That's too many questions all at once, LOL, so I'll just answer the last one, YES! :biggrin:

But market volatility is here to stay & that's no laughing matter, hence action is required!


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## fatcat

Belguy said:


> I would be interested in hearing the latest thoughts from those who have not been all that concerned about the European debt crisis up until now. Have your opinions changed? Are you becoming any more concerned? Do you think that this now has the potential of spiraling out of control? How do you think that this will affect the world markets going forward? Are you concerned that Asian growth is now slowing? Do you feel that the mess in one of the world's greatest economic areas will spread around the world? Where do you feel that the stock markets are headed in the next few months and beyond? Do you think that we are in and economic era of slowing growth? Or, do you think that this is just a short term problem that the markets will overcome in short order? In other words, are the European and U.S. debt problems just so much short term noise that should be ignored? I am particularly interested in hearing the latest thoughts from the eternal optimists out there that might put a positive spin on what is evolving in Europe. Can the markets rebound in the next few years and go on to greater heights or are we indeed in the midst of a lost decade for stocks? Are you still optimistic?


that's the 64K question ... i for one am shell shocked ... at my age, i have far fewer options to put bread on the table ... i am of the opinion that we need to lance the boil ... get greece out and look honestly and squarely at what is next - spain, italy or whatever and then find a way to deal with them ... both italy and spain seem somewhat more amenable to working their way through this ... greece appears to be a hopeless case of corruption and too much slopping at the public trough (though frankly i lay it at the feet of the bankers and the politicians, not at the average workingman who tends to act in the manner that the higher ups tell him to act)

one thing i do wish for is more clarity on just how much separation exists between north america and europe in financial terms ...


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## Spidey

Belguy said:


> I would be interested in hearing the latest thoughts from those who have not been all that concerned about the European debt crisis up until now. Have your opinions changed? Are you becoming any more concerned? Do you think that this now has the potential of spiraling out of control? How do you think that this will affect the world markets going forward? Are you concerned that Asian growth is now slowing? Do you feel that the mess in one of the world's greatest economic areas will spread around the world? Where do you feel that the stock markets are headed in the next few months and beyond? Do you think that we are in and economic era of slowing growth? Or, do you think that this is just a short term problem that the markets will overcome in short order? In other words, are the European and U.S. debt problems just so much short term noise that should be ignored? I am particularly interested in hearing the latest thoughts from the eternal optimists out there that might put a positive spin on what is evolving in Europe. Can the markets rebound in the next few years and go on to greater heights or are we indeed in the midst of a lost decade for stocks? Are you still optimistic?


I don't know very many people have not been concerned about the European crisis. But what do you do? Run for the hills? Put everything in cash? The best defense has always been a balanced portfolio with an asset mix appropriate to one's risk tolerance.


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## Belguy

As we head down the roller coaster ride, which is the stock market, the current situation seems different than back in '08 in this respect. Sure equities took a beating in '08 but my equity losses were partially offset by gains in my precious metals investments and solid returns from my bond investments. Now, precious metals investments are dropping along with the rest of the market and bond investments are barely holding their own and so are not providing the same safety rudder when the seas get rough. Couple this with my age and a shortening time line, and this time, it does seem to be different in some concerning ways. Also, how long will this European scenario take to play out and what will the final act there look like--not to mention the growing debt problem in the U.S. which will be coming to the front burner in the not-to-distant future. Putting it all together, is it truly different this time or are we only going to experience a momentary lull in equity returns before they begin to rise again and how long will that period be? Will it indeed end up being a 'lost decade' or maybe even longer? Do you see any good news out there other than the usual that the lower it goes, the better the buying opportunity will be as proposed by the 'glass half full' folks? Is this a good time to invest or be invested in the equity markets? If not, when do you think that good time return? 

--Lots of concerns and unanswered questions from a seasoned investor who has seen it all.


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## fatcat

Belguy said:


> As we head down the roller coaster ride, which is the stock market, the current situation seems different than back in '08 in this respect. Sure equities took a beating in '08 but my equity losses were partially offset by gains in my precious metals investments and solid returns from my bond investments. Now, precious metals investments are dropping along with the rest of the market and bond investments are barely holding their own and so are not providing the same safety rudder when the seas get rough. Couple this with my age and a shortening time line, and this time, it does seem to be different in some concerning ways. Also, how long will this European scenario take to play out and what will the final act there look like--not to mention the growing debt problem in the U.S. which will be coming to the front burner in the not-to-distant future. Putting it all together, is it truly different this time or are we only going to experience a momentary lull in equity returns before they begin to rise again and how long will that period be? Will it indeed end up being a 'lost decade' or maybe even longer? Do you see any good news out there other than the usual that the lower it goes, the better the buying opportunity will be as proposed by the 'glass half full' folks? Is this a good time to invest or be invested in the equity markets? If not, when do you think that good time return?
> 
> --Lots of concerns and unanswered questions from a seasoned investor who has seen it all.


it's worth reflecting on harry brown's perennial portfolio which which has 4 components to cover inflation/deflation (gold/bonds) expansion/contraction (equities/cash) ... you have 25% of each, right now your cash and your bonds would be saving the day .... http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/f.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=PRPFX


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## Spidey

The difference this time is that we know that a major crisis is a possibility whereas last time almost nobody was expecting a crash of that magnitude and many investors were left shell-shocked. In fact, much of the nervous money has left the market and hasn't returned. Many of us who are left, while we would still face a hit, have also positioned our portfolios to be more defensive. We also have experienced that we can survive such an event and realize that for those with nerves of steel such events offer bargains. However, just the fact that people are predicting disaster is a positive indicator.


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## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy said:


> Do you see any good news out there other than the usual that the lower it goes, the better the buying opportunity will be as proposed by the 'glass half full' folks?


It is a mathematical fact that as stock prices go lower, expected returns from stocks go higher. The reverse is also true. It's not an invention of the "glass half full" or "glass half empty" crowd.


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## Cal

I look at it like this. No matter who defaults, or which country is or is not in the Euro.....The people will always need to brush their teeth, so Colgate will always have some sales, and will probably always pay a dividend. People will probably always use phones too. No matter which country defaults. You can't pay attention to the news. We are investing in companies. Companies will always find a way to sell products and make money.


Great link above, thx optsy. I wish politicians could view that too.


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## doctrine

Yes, with lower stock prices, future returns have been increased as investors demand more return in a perceived higher risk environment.

Of course, no one can predict the future, and the returns required to stay invested may increase before they decrease.


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## Sampson

I'm not concerned. I wasn't before and I'm not now.
Neither my job, nor my wife's job is likely to be directly affected even if we see another major recession. And as I mention in one of your other threads, the money I accumulate now into investments will probably pay out very well in 15 years.

Also, things in Europe seem less severe than the pending doom, financial destruction people were preparing for in 2009. If the World didn't end then when the World's largest economy was teetering on the brink, then it won't even even if the EU falls apart.

If we lived through that one, this one won't be as bad.


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## kcowan

The thing is that nothing has changed lately. Real estate is overvalued and in decline, mortgages and their derivatives are weapons of mass wealth destruction. Governments are bankrupt. The big investors left the stock markets and have not returned.

Since none of the fundamentals have changed, the markets are just continuing to operate as they always have. Do we need to rehash this one more time?


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## Belguy

Well, the European debacle has now returned the equity markets roughly to their March 2009 levels with no end in sight.

Can the markets rebound if nothing gets resolved in Europe and when might that happen?


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## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy said:


> Well, the European debacle has now returned the equity markets roughly to their March 2009 levels with no end in sight.


Huh? The S&P 500 is at 1,300. IIRC, it was at 700 in March 2009. I'd say we are a long way from March 2009 levels.


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## Sampson

Belguy said:


> Well, the European debacle has now returned the equity markets roughly to their March 2009 levels with no end in sight.


This is not even close to being true. Why do you make this stuff up?

Mar 13, 2009
TSX: 7591
S&P500: 683

May 13, 2012
TSX: 11,343
S&P500: 1,331

By my count, the S&P500 still has to drop *50%* before it reaches 2009 lows. Even the commodity heavily TSX still has to drop another *33%* before we get down to lows.


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## ddkay

Maybe Belguy is talking about the equity markets in Europe, beleaguered Italy Spain and Greece are at this point certainly below 2009 lows.


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## Miser

Sampson said:


> This is not even close to being true. Why do you make this stuff up?
> 
> Mar 13, 2009
> TSX: 7591
> S&P500: 683
> 
> May 13, 2012
> TSX: 11,343
> S&P500: 1,331
> 
> By my count, the S&P500 still has to drop *50%* before it reaches 2009 lows. Even the commodity heavily TSX still has to drop another *33%* before we get down to lows.



The drop may not be far off......lot of state and fed debt in the US...............when you owe mor than you can pay changes are afoot!


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## Sampson

For European markets to be lower than Mar 2009 makes sense, that crisis didn't originate there, and was largely contagion from the American crisis. Logic would suggest that this current crisis, originating in Europe will affect North American markets, but not to the extent of 2009 - it's not our crisis.

Last I checked, liquidity could begin to dry up, but banks all over the World have a lot more more in their reserves than last time around.


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## riseofamillionaire

Sampson said:


> I'm not concerned. I wasn't before and I'm not now.
> Neither my job, nor my wife's job is likely to be directly affected even if we see another major recession. And as I mention in one of your other threads, the money I accumulate now into investments will probably pay out very well in 15 years.
> 
> Also, things in Europe seem less severe than the pending doom, financial destruction people were preparing for in 2009. If the World didn't end then when the World's largest economy was teetering on the brink, then it won't even even if the EU falls apart.
> 
> If we lived through that one, this one won't be as bad.


Agree with this completely.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Belguy said:


> I would be interested in hearing the latest thoughts from those who have not been all that concerned about the European debt crisis up until now. Have your opinions changed? Are you becoming any more concerned? Do you think that this now has the potential of spiraling out of control? How do you think that this will affect the world markets going forward? Are you concerned that Asian growth is now slowing? Do you feel that the mess in one of the world's greatest economic areas will spread around the world? Where do you feel that the stock markets are headed in the next few months and beyond? Do you think that we are in and economic era of slowing growth? Or, do you think that this is just a short term problem that the markets will overcome in short order? In other words, are the European and U.S. debt problems just so much short term noise that should be ignored? I am particularly interested in hearing the latest thoughts from the eternal optimists out there that might put a positive spin on what is evolving in Europe. Can the markets rebound in the next few years and go on to greater heights or are we indeed in the midst of a lost decade for stocks? Are you still optimistic?



are we there yet bel?
that is my only question to ya.
i am buying.... a lot and i am buying stocks that are selling below book value.


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## Belguy

Well, the TSX has been nothing to crow about!! So far this year, it is negative 5.12%!! The TSX continues to tumble as the euro anxiety grows.

From Thomas Walkom/Torstar:

"Faced with a stark choice, people will simply not agree to have their lives destroyed to protect the common European currency. That is the meaning of this month's Greek elections, when anti-austerity parties captured 60 per cent of the popular vote. Thus, the euro as it exists now is surely finished. It is similar to the wrenching events of 1931. A banking crisis enveloped Europe, in part because financial institutions found themselves holding government debt that had effectively become useless. The international economy is set to go over the cliff. Greece has called the eurozone's bluff. One of the world's major currencies is at risk. Too many financial institutions hold murky assets that may come apart as the euro unravels. We need not relive the lost decade of the 1930's. But unless we heed the lessons of that period by preparing for an orderly windup of the euro, we are in danger of heading down a similarly bleak road."

--And so, this time it is not different after all. It is similar to what happened in the 1930's!!

Correction: In my earlier post about stock markets being back below their 1990 lows, I did not clarify that I was referring to the Spanish stock market which could very well be a harbinger of where other markets are headed should the euro crisis not be resolved in relatively short order. It's referred to as 'contagion' and it is becoming a growing possibility.

Since originally posting this topic, my worst fears are coming to fruition. This is why I would like to hear from the optimists out there with their thoughts on how this European mess might yet end well.

Or, are we about to revisit the lost decade of the 1930's having learned nothing from history?

--with apologies to kcowan for continuing to hash this topic over again. I just think that it is important and deserves ongoing discussion. However, for those who have no interest in the Euro crisis, or prefer not to read about it, they can just bypass this topic altogether.


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## riseofamillionaire

Belguy said:


> Well, the TSX has been nothing to crow about!! So far this year, it is negative 5.12%!! The TSX continues to tumble as the euro anxiety grows.
> 
> From Thomas Walkom/Torstar:
> 
> "Faced with a stark choice, people will simply not agree to have their lives destroyed to protect the common European currency. That is the meaning of this month's Greek elections, when anti-austerity parties captured 60 per cent of the popular vote. Thus, the euro as it exists now is surely finished. It is similar to the wrenching events of 1931. A banking crisis enveloped Europe, in part because financial institutions found themselves holding government debt that had effectively become useless. The international economy is set to go over the cliff. Greece has called the eurozone's bluff. One of the world's major currencies is at risk. Too many financial institutions hold murky assets that may come apart as the euro unravels. We need not relive the lost decade of the 1930's. But unless we heed the lessons of that period by preparing for an orderly windup of the euro, we are in danger of heading down a similarly bleak road."
> 
> --And so, this time it is not different after all. It is similar to what happened in the 1930's!!


TSX down 5.12% - sounds like a buying opp to me, not a time for panic

Greece is smaller than California. As long as Germany, Swiss, France are healthy (which they are relatively) there is no need to worry about Euro Crisis/Greece. Greece may exit the Euro, but I don't see how that materially affects us except getting a nice selloff in the market to take advantage of.

'this time it is not different at all' has lost people a lot of money over time - don't let fear win


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> --with apologies to kcowan for continuing to hash this topic over again. I just think that it is important and deserves ongoing discussion. However, for those who have no interest in the Euro crisis, or prefer not to read about it, they can just bypass this topic altogether.


I appreciate your apology. The problem you create for me is that you say the same things over and over. Whereas I am looking for new content which other participants might contribute. There is nothing new here. Greece is broken. But its economy is tiny when compared to California which is bankrupt. Germany bailing out Greece is like the US Feds bailing our California - not a surprise. Whatever they do will not impact us in a substantial way.

I am unhappy about the decline in my TEF stock but it only represents under 0.4% of my equity portfolio (and declining) but that is the price of holding equity. It is also in my European ETF. But such is the price of diworsification! Or as some rookies call it: asset allocation!

Have you changed your allocation based on any of this bad news? That is what I am interested in.


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## fatcat

riseofamillionaire said:


> TSX down 5.12% - sounds like a buying opp to me, not a time for panic
> 
> Greece is smaller than California. As long as Germany, Swiss, France are healthy (which they are relatively) there is no need to worry about Euro Crisis/Greece. Greece may exit the Euro, but I don't see how that materially affects us except getting a nice selloff in the market to take advantage of.
> 
> 'this time it is not different at all' has lost people a lot of money over time - don't let fear win


i'm have to say that the advice "don't let fear win" is excellent to apply to one's character but i'm not so sure it's a very good approach to investing ... the old saying that the markets will remain irrational longer than you remain solvent still holds true ... every single politican in france, germany and just about everywhere has said that a greek exit from the euro would be "catastrophic" and i am now convinced they are going to go ... they must go to save themselves, unless they get a devalued drachma they will never, ever get of their hole ... it may be true that north america is separate from europe but panic has a way of crossing all boundaries


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## HaroldCrump

kcowan said:


> The problem you create for me is that you say the same things over and over.


KCowan, there is a simple solution to this problem.
Many of us have already adopted that solution.
Hint : it is located under My Profile > My Settings ;o)


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## larry81

I am praying for the market to crash another 10-15% !

Go Greece go !!!


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## Belguy

To HaroldCrump: What are you doing still hanging around this thread which I started?

To kcowan: As mentioned earlier, I have reduced the equity component of my portfolio from 60 per cent to 50 per cent but I wish that I had reduced it further to 40 per cent which I plan to do if I can ever recoup my paper losses.

The stock market is no place to put your money unless you can afford to lose it--especially for retired folks.

For all of those who aren't too concerned about Greece, what about Spain?

Can anyone see these markets rebounding before the European debt crisis is put to bed and when do you think that will be?

Goodnight, Harold!!


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## Sampson

Belguy said:


> The stock market is no place to put your money unless you can afford to lose it--especially for retired folks.


Hypocrisy. Instant cred killer.



Belguy said:


> For all of those who aren't too concerned about Greece, what about Spain?


Not sure if I'm on your ignore list Belguy, I along with riseofamillionaire addressed this. Maybe it time to pose a question to you. What do YOU think about Spain's faltering economy?


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## fatcat

Belguy said:


> To HaroldCrump: What are you doing still hanging around this thread which I started?
> 
> To kcowan: As mentioned earlier, I have reduced the equity component of my portfolio from 60 per cent to 50 per cent but I wish that I had reduced it further to 40 per cent which I plan to do if I can ever recoup my paper losses.
> 
> The stock market is no place to put your money unless you can afford to lose it--especially for retired folks.
> 
> For all of those who aren't too concerned about Greece, what about Spain?
> *
> Can anyone see these markets rebounding before the European debt crisis is put to bed and when do you think that will be?*
> 
> Goodnight, Harold!!


that is the 64K question and i don't see the answer in sight ... i think europe will rattle north america for some time to come ... i sold some and now have cash to start buying when anything a like a bottom gets made ... i keep hearing 1250 for the s&p, so maybe that will be it ?


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## Belguy

I heard Peter Mansbridge on The National tonight commenting that, for a year now, we have been told to not worry and be happy concerning Greece and still the problem persists. Maybe a year from now, some of the positive folks out there will still be telling us to not worry and be happy even though the problem continues to worsen.

What happens at the end of this play?

Darn Europeans!! Did they not realize that they could not have a functioning fiscal union without a political union? So, how are they going to fix it and make it work?


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## OptsyEagle

Belguy said:


> Can anyone see these markets rebounding before the European debt crisis is put to bed and when do you think that will be?


The markets will always rebound before the problem that caused them to decline is put to bed. That's the problem with trying to react to them.


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## Belguy

As the European credit crisis deepens, Finance Minister Flaherty is now expressing concerns that the problems could spread to the Canadian banking system:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/05/16/spain-bond-yields.html

And the beat goes on!!


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## moneyisfornothing

Belguy.
what have u done lately?
have u sold ur stocks and bought bonds or treasuries?
awhile ago i said that the bond mkt is the smart money.
no answer on the board.
i said a daily death cross was about to form on the tsx index, and there we are it formed.
the weekly yet to form.
i also brought up certain questions about certain stocks and .... no answers.
awhile ago i said a round of destruction is coming . no answer.
to me no answers means that everyone saw it?
no.
everyone was having fun with their fireworks on an iliquid mkt with a lot of liquidity from the ECB.
all of a sudden greece is the problem, and i assure you that greece is not the only problem. u r right spain will be the real pain.
the IBEX hit 08 lows .
and i think that if it breaks that support what is cheap will be cheaper.
anyway, i am loaded with a lot of stuff already and i will hold and even double down if needed on totally destroyed sectors.
and i ask u again .
what have u done today.
i also said about a month and a half ago that i was short the euro.
go read my posts.
u are too attached to the news and not focusing on trading.
GL anyway

disclosure .... i am short natural gas by the way.
have u noticed that it was the only commodity that rallied during this round of destruction?
did encana climb 25 % ?
at 1.9 i went long on it , and one may ask why:rolleyes2:


----------



## humble_pie

I don't make up the news, i just report it, said the Dormouse.

you do not, said the Mad Hatter. What you post are stale links to tired old news articles that everybody has already read.

but we love Dormouse for these, said Alice, who was passing delicate morsels of strawberry-shortcake-with-whipped-cream to the tiny creature on a silver demitasse spoon.

we're always happy to hear from Dormouse, he raises such interesting topics, she added.

thank you dear child, cried the Dormouse. But you know what. I've always had a sneaking suspicion somebody else was getting the real news a lot faster.

it was ddkay, said a voice from above. They all looked up. It was the Cheshire Cat's Grin, hovering over the tea table like a giant butterfly.

ddkay used to be faster with the news than the lone ranger, said the Grin.

that's true, said Alice. DDkay was faster than a speeding bullet.

ddkay was faster than thewashingtonpostthenewyorktimesthelondontimes&theglobe&mail all combined, muttered the Mock Turtle.

i do my best, whispered the Dormouse. I listen to peter mansbridge on the cbc. Nobody else in the whole of canada except me knows that mansbridge is even still alive.


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## ddkay

I'm looking at a lot less news lately. I've minimized newsflow / financial porn to a small twitter feed of journos and people that work in the industry. Also keep some policy dates on my calendar.

Europe will probably be in shambles for decades to come. There's no panacea. Short term a primary trend reversal in US markets began on April. Lots and lots of sell and reallocate signals came along the way. I'm just waiting for a bottom to form. If recent history is any guide bottoms are characteristic of central bank intervention. So far there has been no hints of proactive easing or any of that so I'm staying put. Not giddy about playing the downside either because then everybody thinks you hate humanity.

LTRO was the first bail out I came face to face with and for the most part I had no idea what was going on until the end of last year. So I missed the first 2 months of a 6 month rally, but caught bits and pieces in between. Made a few dumb trades too, but live and learn. Still loving markets overall.


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## kcowan

Belguy said:


> To kcowan: As mentioned earlier, I have reduced the equity component of my portfolio from 60 per cent to 50 per cent but I wish that I had reduced it further to 40 per cent which I plan to do if I can ever recoup my paper losses.


If you are putting your investing desires on hold until you make up some fictious paper losses, you are making the number one mistake that novice investors make. Until that changes, you will get no benefit from any advice you receive here.

Why do you keep asking for advice when you never take it??


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## Belguy

I am getting older. My timeline is diminishing. The markets are tanking because there is so much economic uncertainty in the world with little sign that the situation is at all improving. I have reduced my equity exposure to 50 per cent of my total portfolio but now feel that I should have only 30 per cent exposure given my age and circumstances.

But, forget about me personally for a minute and YOU tell us all what retired investors should be doing with their life savings at this point in time if you feel that you have all of the answers which it sure sounds like you do!!

I'm frankly as tired of the putdowns as some of you are of my postings. Apparently, we are just talking past one another but that doesn't necessarily automatically mean that I am the one that is entirely in the wrong here.

A forum is a centre for DISCUSSION and that is what I am doing. Others are concentrating on the personal criticisms, name calling, and smart a** putdowns all of which I try to avoid doing as it reflects more on them than it does on me.

By the way, if none other than the federal Finance Minister is concerned about the European crisis spreading to Canadian financial institutions. that causes me pause no matter how anybody else feels. He is concerned about contagion and he is not alone.

I agree that, if you are a younger investor, none of this should be of much concern to you other than to try to figure out the buying opportunities that will come along during this economic downturn or whatever you choose to call it.


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## Sampson

Belguy said:


> But, forget about me personally for a minute and YOU tell us all what retired investors should be doing with their life savings at this point in time if you feel that you have all of the answers which it sure sounds like you do!!


Only take on as much risk as you need to maintain and enjoy your retirement.

I recall you mentioning in the past that it is largely out of self-admitted greed that you'd like to see the markets keep going up. In other-words, if you have enough to live of and accomplish what your goals through retirement, whether that be sailing, surfing internet forums, leaving a legacy to children etc.

If those objectives are met, don't take any risk, it will just cause grief and worry - something I believe you should minimize during retirement.


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## riseofamillionaire

kcowan said:


> I appreciate your apology. The problem you create for me is that you say the same things over and over. Whereas I am looking for new content which other participants might contribute. There is nothing new here. Greece is broken. But its economy is tiny when compared to California which is bankrupt. Germany bailing out Greece is like the US Feds bailing our California - not a surprise. Whatever they do will not impact us in a substantial way.
> 
> I am unhappy about the decline in my TEF stock but it only represents under 0.4% of my equity portfolio (and declining) but that is the price of holding equity. It is also in my European ETF. But such is the price of diworsification! Or as some rookies call it: asset allocation!
> 
> Have you changed your allocation based on any of this bad news? That is what I am interested in.


Totally agree. Love the "diworsification" mention - Peter Lynch is the king!

I think this has been mentioned before, but in the context of what happend in 2008, Euro/Greece is small potatoes. IMO the worst is over (08 Financial Crisis). Remember in the 90s the 'Japan Crisis' was all the rage and they were the second biggest economy in the world, yet North American markets had one of their best decades. 

I think this is the beginning of one of the biggest bull market we will ever see. Computers in our hands and the evolution of the internet. It wouldn't be a bull market if everything was rosey; bulls rise on pessimism and peak on optimism. It makes sense as far as business cycles go too; 09 was the bottom of a cycle, now a new cycle begins. Maybe I'm being too simplistic.


----------



## Guigz

humble_pie said:


> I don't make up the news, i just report it, said the Dormouse.
> 
> you do not, said the Mad Hatter. What you post are stale links to tired old news articles that everybody has already read.
> 
> but we love Dormouse for these, said Alice, who was passing delicate morsels of strawberry-shortcake-with-whipped-cream to the tiny creature on a silver demitasse spoon.
> 
> we're always happy to hear from Dormouse, he raises such interesting topics, she added.
> 
> thank you dear child, cried the Dormouse. But you know what. I've always had a sneaking suspicion somebody else was getting the real news a lot faster.
> 
> it was ddkay, said a voice from above. They all looked up. It was the Cheshire Cat's Grin, hovering over the tea table like a giant butterfly.
> 
> ddkay used to be faster with the news than the lone ranger, said the Grin.
> 
> that's true, said Alice. DDkay was faster than a speeding bullet.
> 
> ddkay was faster than thewashingtonpostthenewyorktimesthelondontimes&theglobe&mail all combined, muttered the Mock Turtle.
> 
> i do my best, whispered the Dormouse. I listen to peter mansbridge on the cbc. Nobody else in the whole of canada except me knows that mansbridge is even still alive.


I still don't get it... :-( ... 


@Belguy

What do you hope to accomplish with this thread? Do you really expect people to come with their crystal balls (huge ones, btw) and predict the future? Fine, here is mine:

Given that it rained yesterday, europe will crash and burn and the TSX will go -50% this year.

Ok, I am being facetious, I understand wanting to discuss the issues and information surrounding them, but you seem to come back to the same discourse and questions every time the market shows its volatility...


----------



## Cal

Belguy, when I retire, cash flow will be important to me. Paper losses not so much. It is great to get my monthly/quarterly dividend payments. I know that dividends can be cut (see YLO, MFC) but even if 1 of my 16 or so holdings gets a dividend cut the others should get increase as revenues grow.

For your sake I hope there is a Q3 (but i don't think so) sothe markets will rise and you can cash out of your etf's and get a super safe conservative portfolio. And sleep better at night.

PS there is always economic uncertainty in the world. 

Make your investing decisions based upon what you need as a part of your individual retirement. After the US banking mess, which hopefully is the worst economic uncertainty that I will ever see in my lifetime, I learned one rule that has escaped you. Life and Business goes on. Politics is not necessarily business.

Back to this thread.....the Euro will change, when dunno....but it will be a good buying opportunity then too. Businesses will adjust, and find a way to turn a profit.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Cal said:


> Belguy, when I retire, cash flow will be important to me. Paper losses not so much. It is great to get my monthly/quarterly dividend payments. I know that dividends can be cut (see YLO, MFC) but even if 1 of my 16 or so holdings gets a dividend cut the others should get increase as revenues grow.
> 
> For your sake I hope there is a Q3 (but i don't think so) sothe markets will rise and you can cash out of your etf's and get a super safe conservative portfolio. And sleep better at night.
> 
> PS there is always economic uncertainty in the world.
> 
> Make your investing decisions based upon what you need as a part of your individual retirement. After the US banking mess, which hopefully is the worst economic uncertainty that I will ever see in my lifetime, I learned one rule that has escaped you. Life and Business goes on. Politics is not necessarily business.
> 
> Back to this thread.....the Euro will change, when dunno....but it will be a good buying opportunity then too. Businesses will adjust, and find a way to turn a profit.



very nice post Cal.
atm the mkts are for traders......or has it always been like that?
nevertheless i agree with ur statement, maybe belguy should listen to you, because from my posts i can see that he is not the type of guy to be out there trading.
cheers


----------



## gibor365

Cal said:


> Belguy, when I retire, cash flow will be important to me. Paper losses not so much. It is great to get my monthly/quarterly dividend payments. I know that dividends can be cut (see YLO, MFC) but even if 1 of my 16 or so holdings gets a dividend cut the others should get increase as revenues grow.
> 
> .


Completely agree and was telling the same thing to Belguy before. If portfolio combined from solid blue chips that pay dividends for many years, T, JNJ, KMB, MCD, ABT, PG, PEP, KO, MO , Canadian banks, RCI, BCe and so on , even though you may have paper losses, you will have stable source of dividends above 4%


----------



## moneyisfornothing

gibor said:


> Completely agree and was telling the same thing to Belguy before. If portfolio combined from solid blue chips that pay dividends for many years, T, JNJ, KMB, MCD, ABT, PG, PEP, KO, MO , Canadian banks, RCI, BCe and so on , even though you may have paper losses, you will have stable source of dividends above 4%


its good when ya have 2-3 million bux invested and live on dividends.
is that ur case?


----------



## Toronto.gal

A million and even less, would provide enough dividends for one person.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

a million for sure i agree.
less than a million ....no way
i guess even TRP would cut it right?
u know TRP


----------



## webber22

Yeah but the original poster did not work for Bell Canada, does not have one million, and does not collect an extravagant pension. He says he might be in the line up for the soup kitchen if things don't improve soon :frown:

I suggest he start back at page 1 of this thread and re-read everything again to make some sense of it


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Belguy said:


> With very little time left in the year, the S&P/TSX Composite Index has a YTD loss of 11.36% and trending lower. The S&P 500 Index is also now in negative territory with a YTD % change down 3.3%.
> 
> In all of my reading and watching, the two statements that I often notice repeating themselves are that the European mess will take at least a decade to solve and possibly much longer and that the period beginning in 2008 will be a lost decade for investors.
> 
> All of that may not matter so much to you if you are young with a long time horizon and, in fact, it may afford you many buying opportunities. However, if you are nearing retirement, or already retired, a lost decade or more has a more profound effect.
> 
> In the past, I have been accused, many times, of being too negative in my comments but, quite honestly, do any of you see much cause for optimism in the current globalized economy given the debt problems in Europe and America?
> 
> Minus those problems, I quite imagine that this would have been a positive year for the markets. However, the current debt problems are going to be with us for several years to come.
> 
> What does that mean for you as far as expectations for the markets in the years to come? Do you see any cause for optimism? Despite it taking many years for the world to dig out of the current debt problems, can the markets still rebound any time soon or, are we indeed facing a problem that will take many years to solve and a potentially lost decade for capital appreciation in the equity markets?
> 
> In other words, if the markets can't overcome their fear of the debt crisis now, and the debt crisis is going to be with us for many years to come, is there anything to make you believe that the markets will be able to overlook the debt problems in the coming years and provide much in the way of growth opportunities for investors?



here is the first post on the first page of the OP.
as u said webber , he did not work for Bell canada , he does not have a million bux and is going to line up at the food bank or whatever.
then i ask ya.
why in heaven did he not sell all his equities when the spx peaked this year?
i will leave that question for the OP to answer.
i assure you that i do not have 1 million bux floating around but i have enough to get by but not to live on dividends.
if that is his case , why does he bother even holding equities that just changes value in his portfolio daily.


----------



## webber22

I agree, money. We'll wait till he finishes that bottle of rum, then wait for his reply


----------



## moneyisfornothing

can he afford a bottle of Rum?
i am drinking my good ole johnny blue right now.
i acn still afford the 250 bux bottle.
a few years ago... nah


----------



## Belguy

Here are some suggestions for having a more defensive portfolio going forward. First, reduce your exposure to small caps and concentrate more on large caps. Also, invest in more defensive sectors such as utilities, telcoms, consumer staples, and health care. These changes might cushion you somewhat from any market drops that might lie ahead.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Bel
with all my respect to ya i don't need a portfolio.


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> A million and even less, would provide enough dividends for one person.


For sure if you add CPP and OAS


----------



## Toronto.gal

Even without CPP and OAS, I'm sure dividends from 1 million would do for one person.

1 million may not be what it used to be, but it is still a decent amount to get by.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Hmm, $1M _of invested capital_ (i.e. outside of cash reserves, mortgage payments, etc.) is more than plenty for a small family, not just a single individual.
Depends on lifestyle of course.
If someone wants to have a $640K mortgage, restuarant meals 3 times a day, fancy car, etc. then no.
But you won't have to eat cat food and live in a shoebox either.


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> If someone wants to have a $640K mortgage....


Maybe $641K? :biggrin:

One would certainly hope not to have such a mortgage at or near retirement, that's for sure. 

I'm with you Harold! I was just trying to emphasize that we were talking about one person as others seemed to think that $1M would not be enough.


----------



## Sampson

HaroldCrump said:


> But you won't have to eat cat food and live in a shoebox either.


That's my backup plan if the market tanks during my retirement.


----------



## gibor365

imho, you don't have to have any debt in your retirement at all, than you can live on dividends even with less than million and still have a good lifestyle include trips abroad.
A very stable and solid portfolio can be established with around 4.5% yield and as majority of those stocks increase dividend every year - the portfolio won't really depreciate because of inflation. And I don't think that for example JNJ, KMB or BCE will stop paying dividends...
As an alternative , some small portion of portfolio can be dedicated to really high-yielders , like AGNC, NLY, EGL.UN etc.... yes, it will be riskier , but can significantly increase dividend yield.


----------



## kcowan

Also convertible debentures pay around 6% (+-1%) and the conversion protects you from inflation by guaranteeing that you can buy the underlying company stock at 1.25 what it was trading for upon issue. They have a ten-year term. My oldest holding is from 2004 and has appreciated by 50% in addition to paying 6.75%. Much better than pref shares but also uncommon. Takes due diligence on the stock.


----------



## riseofamillionaire

HaroldCrump said:


> But you won't have to eat cat food and live in a shoebox either.


I'm pretty much doing this now - for the betterment of my future


----------



## Belguy

Don't worry too much about the current market volatility as it should calm down in about two more YEARS!!:upset::upset:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/europes-debt-crisis-could-last-2-years-minister-160258658--finance.html


----------



## Belguy

Once again, as the equity markets decline, my bond funds were the only holdings to go up last week while all of my equity investments were tanking. 

When the waters get rough, fixed income investments are like a rudder to steer you through rough waters and provide you with a ballast.

It is during difficult times like this for equities that you begin to accurately determine just what level of risk tolerance you have which is often overestimated during bull market periods for equities.

Unfortunately, however, bonds are not providing the same amount of relief that they did back in the market crash in 2008 and will most certainly not when interest rates begin to rise.

When that happens, I will miss the effect that bonds have had during recent equity bear markets.


----------



## arc

I think we'll see stability in the market once Greece defaults


----------



## moneyisfornothing

sooooo....... a whole weekend eating caviar and pheasant a lacarte and that is rhe outcome of the G8

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-19/eu-leaders-say-bloc-will-act-as-needed-to-fight-crisis.html

have we seen this movie before.
in the meantime the little guy is being slaughtered everywhere.
all the taxpayers money to fund those hypocrites .
makes u wonder.
i have not expected anything better anyway because the "harry Potter" magic wand is losing its lustre.
have a great and happy long weekend CMFERS:biggrin:

p.s 
do not be surprised if there is a rally this week .......:hopelessness:


----------



## ddkay

Belguy said:


> when interest rates begin to rise


Don't hold your breath!! My bet is this happens to us:


----------



## ddkay

I found this sweatshirt the other day, thinking about ordering one: ZIRP 4EVA!


----------



## ddkay

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2011/06/06/japans-widow-maker-bond-trade-still-looks-lethal/



> By Wayne Arnold
> The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
> 
> TOKYO — Bond traders have been betting against Japanese government debt for years — and losing spectacularly. Victims of the so-called “widow-maker” trade of shorting JGBs thought the March disaster would vindicate them. Rebuilding, after all, will add to Japan’s sky-high debt and, with a shrinking workforce and rising pension costs, push yields up. But the quake hasn’t disrupted the self-perpetuating money machine that drives JGBs. Doomsayers still run the risk of becoming road kill.
> 
> JGBs have outperformed U.S. and German bonds over the past five years, returning over 55 percent in dollar terms, according to Merrill Lynch, despite yielding less than 2 percent. Much of this is a function of the yen’s appreciation against the dollar. But short-sellers have also been flummoxed by the surprising way that a government with debt twice the size of its economy has managed not just to avoid a Greek-style blowout, but to borrow more cheaply every year.
> 
> All but 5 percent of JGBs are held by Japanese, not foreigners demanding attractive yields. Japanese who balked at low yields and invested elsewhere have been punished. At home, stocks have halved since 2005 and the yen’s climb has sapped gains offshore.
> 
> Japan’s pension funds accumulate long-term JGBs to match their liabilities. So, too, do insurers. Banks are the largest JGB buyers by far, a fact unlikely to change unless the economy revs up. With growth anemic and prices falling, companies are paying off loans and socking cash into bank accounts rather than investing it. With worthy borrowers scarce, banks park these deposits into JGBs.
> 
> Even if Japan’s economy does miraculously revive, inflation and growth would offset higher borrowing costs by boosting tax revenue. The real concern, then, is whether demographics might derail the JGB engine. As the workforce shrinks and the ranks of retirees grow, pension funds might need to sell JGBs. The government’s funding needs would then rise as income taxes decline.
> 
> Even without fiscal reforms, though, Japan isn’t likely to reach this tipping point for at least years — seemingly plenty of time to get its house in order, cut benefits, raise contributions and taxes to avert a crunch. True, Japan’s politicians — including Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who survived a no-confidence vote on Thursday — demonstrate a paucity of leadership to tackle these problems. But that’s still enough time to make a few more widows out of those betting against Japanese government debt.


----------



## Belguy

The situation worsens. This is not going to end well!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...p-heighten-as-eu-leaders-meet/article2441840/

Protect your life savings!!

Also, HP announced today that it is cutting 27,000 jobs!!! Is that a sign of a recovering economy?


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> The situation worsens. This is not going to end well!!
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...p-heighten-as-eu-leaders-meet/article2441840/
> 
> Protect your life savings!!


Rather than being Peter crying wolf, what are you doing to protect your life savings? 

You want a discussion; discuss!:rolleyes-new:


----------



## Belguy

The way that I see it, there are three broad choices. You can be a trader and hope to profit from the volatility. Or, you can buy during periods of maximum pessimism as is the Warren Buffet way. Or, you can just hold through all market conditions and hope for the inevitable rebound while hoping to avoid a return to something akin to the 1930's. I am of the latter persuasion hoping for the best after rebalancing my portfolio to 50 per cent equities, 40 per cent bonds, and 10 per cent cash. However, I do regret not shifting my equity component down to 40 per cent when I had the chance earlier this year. That would be my plan should my portfolio ever get back to a target figure that I have in mind.

Buy, hold, and prosper????


----------



## mrPPincer

Belguy said:


> Buy, hold, and prosper????


I'm clinging to the - know your asset allocation, buy, hold, rebalance, and cross fingers approach followed by - did I mention rebalance?
Anyways, that's the straw I clutch to in these volatile markets, the power of rebalancing, over the long term.


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> However, I do regret not shifting my equity component down to 40 per cent when I had the chance earlier this year. That would be my plan should my portfolio ever get back to a target figure that I have in mind.
> 
> Buy, hold, and prosper????


So this thread is about expressing your regrets for not doing what you really should have done back 2 months ago?


----------



## Belguy

No, Keith, this thread is primarily about the mess in Europe. I'm sorry that you didn't grasp that!


----------



## scomac

kcowan said:


> So this thread is about expressing your regrets for not doing what you really should have done back 2 months ago?


:encouragement:


----------



## Cal

Belguy, do you think that Europe's debt issues will cause stocks to go lower? If so, why not cash out of some of your holdings and buy in at lower target prices. You could pick up more units thatn you already have using the same amount of cash.

Now do I really think you should do this, no. I think it would give you a heart attack. But there are more than the 3 options that you listed.

I guess we should have a better idea by the June 15 vote date in regards to Greece. Then to deal with countries that really would have an impact on the economy.


----------



## zylon




----------



## Toronto.gal

Cal said:


> 1. why not cash out of some of your holdings and buy in at lower target prices. You could pick up more units thatn you already have using the same amount of cash.
> 2. I guess we should have a better idea by the June 15 vote date in regards to Greece.
> 3. Then to deal with countries that really would have an impact on the economy.


1. Belguy may have left it a bit too late to do this, and if he's never sold, I doubt he'll do so now.
2. The date is June 17th I believe. 
3. Today, that would be España's debt.

Always an exciting day! :rolleyes2:


----------



## Belguy

I did move ten per cent of my equity position to a HISA a few months back and so it is not like I haven't sold anything.

In an article in today's Toronto Star, it warns that the TSX and the Canadian dollar are both poised to fall if Greece exits the euro zone in a "disorderly" way.

It goes on to say that "stocks in Toronto could fall as much as a further 8 to 10 per cent while the Canadian dollar could drop to 95 cents U.S. if the June 17 vote in Greece goes "the wrong way" according to an international panel of bank executives.

"There is certainly a lot more downside for the TSX. Is it 1,000 points or not? It's hard to know" says Paul Taylor, chief investment officer with BMO Global Asset Management in Toronto. The index is already well below last April's peak of 14,300 points.

The fear that a run on Greek banks could spread to other European nations, sparking a global economic downturn would hit the TSX particularly hard given the market's disproportionate share of stocks in energy, minerals and materials, Taylor said. As the global economy continues to slow, demand for those products would fall along with their prices.

There are many unknowns in the three coming weeks leading up to next month's Greek election , the second in as many months as the debt-hobbled nation balks at the rest of Europe's demands it cut spending as a condition of bailout funding.

Greeks are already withdrawing their euros from banks in record numbers.

---June will be an interesting month for the markets. While we may be able to handle a further ten per cent drop in the markets in the relative short term, my concern is that this European mess could drag on for many more months and spread to much larger European economies such as Spain and Italy. If the scenario of Greece leaving the euro leads to a ten per cent decline in the TSX, what would contagion to the Spanish or Italy economies do to the markets? It is to frightening to imagine!! 

Markets hate uncertainty and it is difficult to know when and how all of this European uncertainty will end.

The big questions are where and when do we reach the market bottoms and what will cause them to change direction and begin to recoup some or all of their losses?

It's hard to see that happening anytime soon. What if it dragged on for years--perhaps we are indeed into a lost decade for the markets.

However, one age old piece of advice is to never sell low!! In other words, we're already on the roller coaster and strapped in for the full ride and so hang on!!

Another old lesson relearned is to never have money in the markets that you are going to need for the next few years or, for that matter, that you cannot afford to lose period.

Buy, hold, and ????


----------



## Toronto.gal

I know this is about 'Europe and the Lost Decade' thread, but have you read anything positive lately? Here is a recent positive article to cheer you up. 

http://www.mining.com/2012/02/21/eu...t-last-investors-can-cheer-news-about-greece/

If you're not prepared to make any further changes to your portfolio, then don't read so much about this topic.


----------



## Belguy

I'm an investor--not an ostrich. If you have any interest in investments and the economy in general, it is hard to ignore the mess in Europe and how it will play out in the long run and how long that long run will be. Is this likely to be cleared up anytime soon and the markets return to 'normal' or is this going to be a long, drawn out affair with no clear end in sight or how that end may look as it relates to Europe.

I visited my local bank branch yesterday and they had one of those fancy charts on the wall that shows how well the markets have performed over the long run. However, over the past few years, the picture has turned decidedly less rosy.

When are those fancy charts going to start showing a long term general uptrend again?

Or, are we indeed in a 'lost decade'?

By the way, are those ostriches with their heads in the sand and uninformed of the world around them any better off than those of us who keep on top of what is happening in the world?

Maybe ignorance is bliss!!

Now, excuse me while I go back to watching BNN, CNBC, and Bloomberg.


----------



## Toronto.gal

But what have you done with the information you have read, other than just rebalance once or twice in as many years?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> Now, excuse me while I go back to watching BNN, CNBC, and Bloomberg.


Oh, and you forgot nbr.com just before going or hiding under the bed. :biggrin:


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> However, one age old piece of advice is to never sell low!! In other words, we're already on the roller coaster and strapped in for the full ride and so hang on!!


Yes this is what the Nortel investors did (and the Worldcom and Enron investors before them)! It is old advice but it is still bad...

As Marina can say: Know when to fold em. Know when to run.


----------



## Toronto.gal

kcowan said:


> As Marina can say: Know when to fold em. Know when to run.


But folding at a tolerable loss and mere days after a purchase was executed, is entirely different from trying to correct years later and/or doing so at the worst possible time [when some stocks are reaching 3, 5, etc., year lows].

One thing is to buy at $10, sell at $8 and buy again at $5, but another to buy at $10 and sell at $3, unless there was chance for some of them to go to $0.


----------



## Belguy

I find it difficult to identify the market tops and sell at the right times in anticipation of the inevitable market swoons that come along. In this regard, all of the financial gurus--not only in the financial media, but in financial forums such as this are not all that helpful. Then, once the roller coaster ride starts to take you down, it's hard to sell because then you fall into the trap of buying at the peaks during periods of market euphoria (although my memory fails me on when we last had one of those times) and selling during periods of maximum pessimism which is exactly the opposite of what more successful investors do. 

The conclusion would be to try to identify when we are at or near the bottom and when the markets might turn around. This time out, I believe that will happen when an ultimate solution to the European crisis becomes clear.

With all that we know now, does anyone have any idea when that will happen? Will it take mere months or many years? Ah, therein lies the problem. Is this a relatively short term blip or the beginnings of a problem that will negatively affect the markets for years to come?

In other words, are we perhaps four years into a lost decade (or more!) for stocks or near the beginning of a new secular bull market?

You have to have a lot of faith if you believe the latter.

The latest development involves further concerns regarding Spanish banks:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ratings-on-five-spanish-banks/article2443704/

The big concern remains the very real possibility of contagion to other European banks and even to North American banks.

That would be the nightmare scenario.


----------



## mrPPincer

Belguy said:


> In other words, are we perhaps four years into a lost decade (or more!) for stocks or near the beginning of a new secular bull market?


Belguy when you bring up that term I am reminded of this interesting article which you so thoughtfully brought to the CMF community...
http://www.icecapassetmanagement.co...ManagementLimitedGlobalMarkets April 2012.pdf

According to these guys it looks like we are actually 12 years into the secular bear market, not 4, so by that viewpoint, maybe a secular bull market is still something you can look forward to?


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> ...The conclusion would be to try to identify when we are at or near the bottom and when the markets might turn around. This time out, I believe that will happen when an ultimate solution to the European crisis becomes clear...


If you actually hold out hope that Europe will end well, then I suggest you look to buy the Brooklyn Bridge. All knowledgeable people (as opposed to talking heads) expect the Eurpean situation to end badly. And they have been steadfast since the beginning.

But, by all means, let's keep talking and wringing our hands...


----------



## Belguy

I don't know if I happened to mention this before but I agree that the European mess is not going to end well. Can anyone explain to us how it might work itself out? One thing for sure, the European politicians will take it to the brink before taking strong action to stop the catastrophe from happening and, even then, they could miscalculate and send the whole thing spiralling out of control.

We live in interesting times.

I don't want to say it out loud, but what I fear most is a market crash as bad as or worse than what we experienced back in 2008.

We may not have to wait long to find out.


----------



## ddkay

It's not a mess, it's a bubble. Everyone thinks their standard of living is defined by what Made in China stuff they buy to make them look rich. Where would your retirement fund be if central banks withdrew life support from the banks? Not saying that's going to happen, but a depression today would probably be relatively more comfortable than the 1930s.


----------



## riseofamillionaire

Belguy said:


> I don't want to say it out loud, but what I fear most is a market crash as bad as or worse than what we experienced back in 2008.
> 
> We may not have to wait long to find out.


What if that doesn't happen for another 70 years, much like the time between the great depression and the financial crisis? Then what. You're stuck in bonds at the exact time you should be in stocks. The time to be doom and gloom was 06, 07.

Happy to take the other side of this.


----------



## Cal

I under no circumstances think the Euro mess will end with a result on the markets like '08. No way. No matter how it dissolves. It is Greece. 

And some of it has already been factored into the markets....


----------



## riseofamillionaire

Cal said:


> I under no circumstances think the Euro mess will end with a result on the markets like '08. No way. No matter how it dissolves. It is Greece.
> 
> And some of it has already been factored into the markets....


Yep, similar to the 'Japan Crisis' in the late 90s, which had almost no effect on the S&P500. Moreover, it can be argued that the Euro Crisis is less significant then the Japan Crisis.


----------



## Belguy

Is it only me or does the entire world economic situation seem a lot more fragile today than it has at any time over the past fifty years or more? Perhaps it is just my age that makes me feel this way but younger investors will lack the experience of having lived through years that just seemed more economically strong than more recent times have felt. There is a new book out there by Jeff Rubin titled 'The End of Growth' that addresses this.


----------



## scomac

It's just you, Belguy...


----------



## Belguy

Thanks, scomac. That makes me feel better--I think!!??

It helps to know that some think that the world economy is better than ever before and on totally solid ground.

Don't worry--be happy!!


----------



## scomac

Are you manic depressive? One minute the economic situation is worse than it has ever been in the last 50 years and then the next you are talking: "better than ever before and on totally solid ground." 

No wonder you always seem to have your shorts in a knot; you focus on the extremes rather than the middle ground that can be achieved over the fullness of time. :hopelessness:


----------



## Toronto.gal

scomac said:


> *you* are talking: "better than ever before and on totally solid ground."


Come on, he was just being sarcastic, and besides, he was talking about others and most certainly not himself.

"some think that the world economy is better than ever before and on totally solid ground".


----------



## marina628

Reuters is reporting that Greece will be the latest European country to legalize online gambling. The country will legalize online gambling to comply with EU law under the terms of a €110 billion EU/IMF bailout.

Reuters has a very short write-up about the news:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSATH00585520101222 don't worry about Greece the casinos will cover their debt much like Ontario will do when they open their online casinos .


----------



## scomac

Toronto.gal said:


> Come on, he was just being sarcastic, and besides, he was talking about others and most certainly not himself.


You condone trolling?


----------



## Toronto.gal

I let the moderators worry about trolls.

I put those that bother me, on the ignore list, why don't you do the same if you're so bothered? And no, I don't condone trolling nor do I think that Belguy is one [though he might behave like one].


----------



## kcowan

Toronto.gal said:


> And no, I don't condone trolling nor do I think that Belguy is one [though he might behave like one].


If it walks like a duck....
Not to give belguy a chance to stop wringing his hands, but here is Greece in perspective:








and if that is not enough, here is where Greece fits relative to the other majors:








so you might say that Greece is an exception to the rest of Europe.


----------



## HaroldCrump

In Michael Lewis' book _Boomerang_, there is a dedicated chapter for Greece.
While his insight/experience in other countries like Iceland and Ireland are interesting, the case study for Greece (13th century order of monks cheating the govt. out of billions of $$) is just outright hilarious.

Lewis' experience in Greece also lends support to Kevin O'Leary's oft repeated statement that in Greece, _half the population works for the govt. and the other half don't pay taxes_.
Lewis' interviews with 2 Greek tax collectors shows that the above statement is one 100% true.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Great illustrations kcowan/Harold!


----------



## fatcat

kcowan said:


> If it walks like a duck....
> Not to give belguy a chance to stop wringing his hands, but here is Greece in perspective:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> and if that is not enough, here is where Greece fits relative to the other majors:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> so you might say that Greece is an exception to the rest of Europe.


this seems to me to be a clear case for leaving the euro ... everyone says it will be a disaster if they leave ... but i don't see how they can stay and ever have any hope of getting back on their feet ... they need to devalue their currency


----------



## Cal

The market hates uncertainty. I am willing to bet that if/when Greece leaves, the market will have a nice little bump up.


----------



## fatcat

Cal said:


> The market hates uncertainty. I am willing to bet that if/when Greece leaves, the market will have a nice little bump up.


right, and then we can begin to be uncertain about spain


----------



## Belguy

There is an article in today's Toronto Star headed 'Greece not only investor concern--After Greek election, issues, Spanish banks could hurt markets'.

It states that even after the Greek elections, "because there are issues with Spain, Portugal and Ireland, the period of doubt and uncertainty over Europe will likely stretch through the balance of the year in any event".

Spain's borrowing costs neared record highs as investors fretted over how the government would find additional money to bail out Bankia, the country's largest mortgage lender, and other troubled banks. Without outside intervention, most analysts anticipate that ballooning mortgage defaults, coupled with Spain's own punitive borrowing costs, will force Madrid to seek emergency funding for its banks from the European Union.

The so-called risk premium demanded by investors for holding 10-year Spanish government bonds, instead of German bonds, reached 5.1 percentage points Monday, the biggest differential since the introduction of the euro.

If Spain wants to calm the markets and reduce the risk premium, the only possibility seems to be to appeal for help to the European financial institutions as it's just too late now for the government to make strong verbal statements in order to try to appease the markets.

Daragh Quinn, a banking analyst in London for Nomura, on Monday described the Bankia collapse as "grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented".

--Madhavi Acharya-Tom Yew, Toronto Star

Watch the dominoes fall. The only issue that I would take with this article is that I believe that the European mess will last much longer than just through this year.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Belguy said:


> There is an article in today's Toronto Star headed 'Greece not only investor concern--After Greek election, issues, Spanish banks could hurt markets'.
> 
> It states that even after the Greek elections, "because there are issues with Spain, Portugal and Ireland, the period of doubt and uncertainty over Europe will likely stretch through the balance of the year in any event".
> 
> Spain's borrowing costs neared record highs as investors fretted over how the government would find additional money to bail out Bankia, the country's largest mortgage lender, and other troubled banks. Without outside intervention, most analysts anticipate that ballooning mortgage defaults, coupled with Spain's own punitive borrowing costs, will force Madrid to seek emergency funding for its banks from the European Union.
> 
> The so-called risk premium demanded by investors for holding 10-year Spanish government bonds, instead of German bonds, reached 5.1 percentage points Monday, the biggest differential since the introduction of the euro.
> 
> If Spain wants to calm the markets and reduce the risk premium, the only possibility seems to be to appeal for help to the European financial institutions as it's just too late now for the government to make strong verbal statements in order to try to appease the markets.
> 
> Daragh Quinn, a banking analyst in London for Nomura, on Monday described the Bankia collapse as "grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented".
> 
> --Madhavi Acharya-Tom Yew, Toronto Star
> 
> Watch the dominoes fall. The only issue that I would take with this article is that I believe that the European mess will last much longer than just through this year.


So I would assume after all these posts that you've made a killing shorting the Euro and are ready to retire now?


----------



## webber22

He could of even profited from something like this


----------



## Belguy

Heh, I actually wrote that book!! Also, as a matter of fact, I have made a lot of money shorting the euro and am, at this very moment, planning my next vacation---

http://www.npr.org/2012/05/18/152921719/is-now-the-time-to-vacation-in-greece?ft=1&f=1018

You'll find me at the topless beach!!


----------



## Belguy

The plot thickens. This is not going to end well.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ain-spiralling-toward-bailout/article2447298/

Investors stampede to safety:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/bond-mania-sweeps-globe/article2447897/

They don't know what to do because there is probably nothing that they CAN do. Even God himself could not solve this mess. It's a train wreck about to happen and we are all eyewitnesses to the European tragedy to come.

---Is your money safe?!! Cash will be king when the crash finally happens.

Is it every bit as serious as I originally predicted?

Yes, it's the worst case scenario.


----------



## mrPPincer

I don't know if it's correct to call it a flight to safety anymore when the yeilds are close to zero percent.
They might be better off buying gold, guns and freeze-dried food


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> Is it every bit as serious as I originally predicted?
> 
> Yes, it's the worse case scenario.


Quick; sell everything! :hopelessness:


----------



## Vitalogy80

I dont understand the worry about Spain...from the graphs from KCowan above, Spain has the lower debt to GDP of almost all the Eurozone.


----------



## Belguy

Spain is too big to save.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20120531/spain-bank-bailout-120531/

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...31/bloomberg_articlesM4VS5A0D9L3601-M4VVD.DTL


----------



## kcowan

Received from a buddy:


> Banking Crisis!!
> If the global crisis continues at the present rate, by the end of this year only two banks will be left operational....the Blood Bank and the Sperm Bank!!
> 
> And before you know it, these two will merge, and the whole place will be full of bloody wankers.


I suspect it originated in Australia.


----------



## Belguy

You've got to have a sense of humour during difficult times like this.

More signs of the ultimate disintegration of the euro zone:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...blog/trouble-brews-in-germany/article2448446/


----------



## Belguy

Germany walks the tightrope:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ood-crisis-is-set-to-turn-bad/article2449814/


----------



## Belguy

It gets more and more interesting!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...nal-crisis-is-gathering-speed/article4230797/


----------



## Dibs

Belguy, I appreciate you posting all these articles, but I think most of us browse the G&M every day...


----------



## Belguy

Peter Mansbridge interviewed the P.M. tonight on The National and Harper suggested that the world economic situation is more fragile than ever and that we are "running out of runway".

He also suggested that investors take the long view but didn't say what older investors, without the benefit of having a long view, should do????

German bank downgrades:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...t-downgrades-hit-german-banks/article4233982/


----------



## Dibs

Here is an interesting article - Millionaire Teacher Adds $29,000 to International Index

Belguy, didn't you already rebalance early in 2012 to lower your equity ratio to levels where you would feel comfortable?


----------



## Belguy

Rebalanced to 50 per cent equities earlier in the year before markets started to tank.

A world of economic pain. Investor panic swells on continued bad news from the eurozone, U.S., China, and India. Worry about return of your money as much as return on your money.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47657929


----------



## Belguy

It probably doesn't mean a whole lot but the S&P 500 Index just had it's best week of the year so far rising 3.8 per cent.

We'll take a little good news wherever and whenever we can get it.:smile:


----------



## kcowan

Is the cartoon channel showing reruns?


----------



## ddkay

LOL

It does mean something, we are probably going higher. There are no financial stresses in Spain anymore. ECB stick save.


----------



## Belguy

On the other hand, the commodity heavy TSX is now at about the same level as it was last September. Ten months and counting of going nowhere!!

Over that time, I have found much more enjoyment from:biggrin-new::highly_amused::congratulatory::glee: watching the Cartoon Network than I have from watching the stock channel.


----------



## mrPPincer

Some good news out of Europe for a change;

from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18384291 ,*

"Spain's decision to request a loan of up to 100bn euros ($125bn; £80bn) from eurozone funds to help shore up its struggling banks has won broad support.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the bailout was big enough to restore credibility to Spain's banks.

Washington welcomed the measure as a vital step towards the "financial union" of the eurozone.

The move was agreed during emergency talks between eurozone finance ministers on Saturday.

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said the plan for Spain should provide "assurance that the financing needs of Spain's banking system will be fully met". ...(& more)" *


I'm interested to hear Belguy's reaction to this news


----------



## Belguy

We'll take every bit of good news that we can get. However, the horse is now out of the barn and I fear that we are into a decade or more of worldwide financial deleveraging. If so, that will mean ongoing stock market volatility leading us to lower levels going forward. At best, most investors can expect single digit annual returns for many years to come. It is not going to be a pretty picture!

A painful and ugly period:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/steve-keen-2012-particularly-ugly-year/76297

Protect your hard-earned savings.

Future developments to watch for:

Credit downgrades for most large U.S. banks.

Declining profits for American companies that do a significant amount of their business in Europe.

Low to nil or negative stock market returns for many years to come.

Enjoy!!!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> We'll take every bit of good news that we can get. However, the horse is now out of the barn and I fear that we are into a decade or more of worldwide financial deleveraging. It is not going to be a pretty picture!!


This doesn't matter so much.

Uncertainty is the problem. At least we (the markets) now have some information to work with. It is uncertainty that creates volatile markets.

In any case, Belguy, though you are of "ripe" age, volatility could still be beneficial to you, should you try your hand at trading a little bit.


----------



## Toronto.gal

*Belguy:* are you posting from your iPhone? 

The markets are closed today, so forget about Europe for a day & enjoy the beautiful weather!


----------



## kcowan

What beautiful weather? It is rainy and cold again today! Friday and Saturday were just fine though. Went to Hastings racetrack to mourn the retirement of "Let's have another"...


----------



## Four Pillars

Weather is great today. Went to the beach for a while and quick swim. Lake is a tad cold.


----------



## Beaver101

> It probably doesn't mean a whole lot but the S&P 500 Index just had it's best week of the year so far rising 3.8 per cent.
> 
> We'll take a little good news wherever and whenever we can get it.


.. was nice to see a little smilie there! 



> We'll take every bit of good news that we can get. However, .... Low to nil or negative stock market returns for many years to come.


 .. the bad news will always be there!



Toronto.gal said:


> *Belguy:* are you posting from your iPhone?
> 
> The markets are closed today, so forget about Europe for a day & enjoy the beautiful weather!


... +1 and same here. Off-line now.


----------



## Jon_Snow

kcowan said:


> What beautiful weather? It is rainy and cold again today! Friday and Saturday were just fine though. Went to Hastings racetrack to mourn the retirement of "Let's have another"...


Rain, really? Fair bit of sunshine here in the southern Gulf Islands. That Olympic Mountains "rain shadow" effect is quite handy. 

I try not to spend too much time thinking about investments on my weekends - although Sunday nights on the ferry back to civilization I start devising a strategy for the week ahead.


----------



## Belguy

Is this a weather blog or what? Who cares what the weather is like on the left coast? Earthquakes might hold a bit more interest so keep us informed on that front.

The mess in Europe is sapping the energy right out of the equity markets. It will be interesting to see how they react to the bailout of the Spanish banks. Next up--Italy!!

Many multinational companies normally get 30-40 per cent of their overall profits out of Europe but that will most assuredly not be the case going forward for most of them with whatever consequences that brings to their stock prices.

If we can ever get out of this year with our heads above water, it will be a miracle. Check in with me at the end of the year and we can lick our collective wounds.

Here's to another exciting week on the markets culminating in another Greek election next Sunday and more fun and games after that.

The fun never ends!!:frown::upset::frown-new::concern:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...eaders-fear-for-italys-future/article4244654/

Spanish unemployment is bad and getting worse. Where will it lead?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...pains-economic-pain-to-deepen/article4245523/

Can a European calamity leading to a world recession or worse be avoided? It's getting more serious with each passing day!!

What baffles me is to witness where socialism has taken Europe and so what do the latest Canadian polls show--a statistical tie between Tory and NDP support.

Those NDP supporters should not even be allowed to vote!!


----------



## blin10

up in pre hours, oil up big too, going to be up day tomorow


----------



## KaeJS

I'm actually angry everything is up right now.

I set a buy limit order this weekend and now it probably won't get filled due to higher opening prices.


----------



## scomac

And here I thought the predictions of the Mayan calendar were gloomy. Those ancients had nothing on our Belguy. I'm reminded of the Peanuts character that always had a cloud over his head...


----------



## Belguy

You can face up to it or you can stick your head in the sand and pretend that everything is normal--which it is far from!!

One common trait of stock markets during deleveraging periods is volatility but, unfortunately, such volatility ultimately leads to long periods of flat markets or a trend to lower markets.

Gone are the days of double digit gains.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...t-your-investment-assumptions/article4243152/

Have a nice week!!


----------



## sags

Don't worry Belguy......

All they have to do is create digital money and move it around.

I doubt anyone is keeping track of it all anyways, so it works.

Remember when the billions in skid loads of US dollars that just vanished from the airport tarmac in Iraq.

Same kind of deal.


----------



## Belguy

You've gotta love globalization!!

Does anyone out there disagree with me that the stock market has become a fool's game and is no place to park your hard-earned life savings??:upset::frown::crushed::apologetic:


----------



## blin10

dude for someone to gain someone needs to loose...



Belguy said:


> You've gotta love globalization!!
> 
> Does anyone out there disagree with me that the stock market has become a fool's game and is no place to park your hard-earned life savings??:upset::frown::crushed::apologetic:


----------



## ddkay

ES futures up 20 points, time to sell into the rips


----------



## Jon_Snow

Methinks SU might be making me some money tomorrow. 

Tempted to pocket some gains and buy myself a nice deep space observing telescope - yes, I am an astronomy geek. :tongue-new:


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> Methinks SU might be making me some money tomorrow.
> 
> Tempted to pocket some gains and buy myself a nice deep space observing telescope - yes, I am an astronomy geek. :tongue-new:


As long as you are not an _astrology_ geek. :biggrin:


----------



## dubmac

Jon_Snow said:


> Methinks SU might be making me some money tomorrow.
> 
> Tempted to pocket some gains and buy myself a nice deep space observing telescope - yes, I am an astronomy geek. :tongue-new:


no kidding Jon Snow - did you see the transit of venus last week (or is this a given among you telescope buffs) - just how serious are you..that's a round-about way of asking "How powerful is your telescope?" - It can be an expensive hobby I as far as I know!


----------



## Belguy

I have just read that France's socialists are heading for an outright majority in next Sunday's runoff.

How stupid is that? The voters in France deserve whatever they get!

Also, "once the dominoes start falling, who knows where they will stop".

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/edit...703--europe-s-economic-crisis-is-going-global

It's 1931 all over again. Protect your savings!!


----------



## kcowan

Jon_Snow said:


> Rain, really? Fair bit of sunshine here in the southern Gulf Islands. That Olympic Mountains "rain shadow" effect is quite handy.


Later on, after I shut my computer off, the sun came out but there was a cold wind. reminds me of March.



Belguy said:


> Is this a weather blog or what? Who cares what the weather is like on the left coast? Earthquakes might hold a bit more interest so keep us informed on that front.


Because we have the same impact on the weather that we have on the markets. Talking about it will not change anything!



Belguy said:


> Does anyone out there disagree with me that the stock market has become a fool's game and is no place to park your hard-earned life savings??:upset::frown::crushed::apologetic:


I agree that YOU should not be in the stock market. You have the wrong disposition. Put your money in a safe investment and go out to enjoy the sunshine.


----------



## mrPPincer

I think the problem in Europe has nothing to do with how socialist they chose to be. 

The reason they're running into trouble is because they have created a monetary union without creating any kind of fiscal union yet.

A lot of the stronger northern european countries are quite socialist, yet look to the crumbling empire to our south in debt up to it's eyeballs, and which, from the time of the cold war, has programmed it's populace against anything that smacks of even a hint of socialism.


----------



## Belguy

The eurozone is made up of 17 distinct and separate nations each with it's own government and it's own ideas of how they want to run things. If the electorate do not like the way that things are going, they just chase their politicians out of power and replace them with some of an entirely different mind as has recently been taking place. How can you begin to try to effectively run a fiscal union with no political union in place? It was destined to fail and it is failing but the domino effect may take the rest of the world economies down with it.

God himself couldn't resolve this European mess!!

Also, as I heard someone say on BNN today, there was a time when action to firm up Spanish banks might have resulted in a rebound in world stock markets that would have lasted at least a day or even more. However, with the current economic climate, it resulted in the markets rebounding for only about an hour!! That's how shaky things have become and illustrates how unlikely we are to experience any sustained market gains until the economic mess in the world is cleaned up which could very well take years to accomplish. There is no way that we are in a short term market phenomenon which is why many say that we can forget the days of double digit market returns and will be lucky if we can extract any positive returns at all!!

Does this imply that only those who recognize this reality should be out of the markets?


----------



## blin10

wow belguy, seriously investing is not good for your health at that age...


----------



## mrPPincer

Belguy said:


> There is no way that we are in a short term market phenomenon which is why many say that we can forget the days of double digit market returns and will be lucky if we can extract any positive returns at all!!
> 
> Does this imply that only those who recognize this reality should be out of the markets?


I don't think those assumptions are necessarily wrong by any means, but I'm 90% into equity at age close to 50, so I guess in short, answer to your question no.


----------



## londoncalling

A better question to ask yourself is are double digit annual returns normal? It's called reversion to the mean...


----------



## fatcat

i was listening last night to bloomberg and the mood was rosy, everyone celebrating the saving of the spaniards and looking forward to a nice up day
and then everyone's hopium wore off and they realized the magnitude of the problem

the greeks are batting on sunday and according the uber-bear zerohedge, the anti-bailout party is leading ... i hope they win so we can get this thing going .... open the wound and let it bleed

this is gonna go on for years at this rate ...


----------



## Belguy

I somehow doubt that the weekend election in Greece will solve anything.

Two decades of economic progress in the U.S. has been wiped out in the past three years--NBC Nightly News, June 11.

The inept European leaders are playing a scary game of 'Who has the debt"--it's over there, no wait a minute, it's over there, no, it's over there. It's a shell game.

Does anyone know where the Spanish bank bailout money is coming from? I hear that one possible source doesn't even exist yet!!

It's an unholy mess!!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy, I try to be understanding of you as I know some people are quite rude to you at times. 

However, have you ever considered maybe becoming a laddered GIC and Monthly Income investor?

You do seem to get way too caught up in the doom and gloom. 

Relax -- it will be okay. Give it some more time. 

If you look outside and people are still driving, factories are still smoking, and the neighbours across the street just went on vacation, coupled with higher company profits.... You have nothing to worry about. 

I know you're not exactly a youngling, but unless you plan on dying in the next year... Just take it easy, buddy.


----------



## Belguy

A predicted disaster:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...o-economists-say-of-euro-zone/article4247717/

Spanish problem solved--NOT!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-spanish-bailout-may-not-work/article4248651/

Italy awaits.:apologetic::culpability::blue::confusion:


----------



## crazyjackcsa

KaeJS: You're looking at the way Belguy posts all wrong. 

The average person posts in the way they speak, we refer to ourselves and our experiences.

For instance, I might post "I like cake". <- this post means I like cake.

Belguy instead reads an article in support of cake, and posts the link.
Then two weeks later he reads an article stating "The cake is a lie," and posts that link.
Then a week after that he reads an article about how cake is no good, and pie is where it's at. So he posts a link.
Two days later a post reiterating a pro cake stance shows up, and it's Belguy, only this time he's posting his own opinion.

And so it goes.

It gets confusing, since we're used to posts that spell out the author's position and that isn't what Belguy does. 

He's literally an aggregate posting service.


----------



## Belguy

Not true!! I believe that the European debt crisis is a potentially catastrophic event and nothing has happened since my first posting on this thread to change my mind. In fact, some of our worst fears are coming true.

I would be interested in knowing if anyone out there has become more optimistic that this will end well or are you, like me, more pessimistic than ever that the European leaders are going to be able to stop this roll away freight train before it crashes.

How can this end well?? The only way that I know is to print a few trillion euros and then what will this do to the economy?

Italy is next and the U.S. is coming. It's a worldwide deleveraging that is going to take years. More years than I have!!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Not true!! In fact, some of our worst fears are coming true.
> 
> How can this end well??


You are right. Beating the TSX by 9% _*IS*_ one of my worst fears!


----------



## blin10

I see you post that few times, just curious how much $ that 9% represents? and how much you paid in commisions?



KaeJS said:


> You are right. Beating the TSX by 9% _*IS*_ one of my worst fears!


----------



## KaeJS

Well, the dollar figure ($) and the amount paid in commissions does not matter at all, so I'm not sure why you would ask.

The reason people in the "investment world" speak in percentages (%) is because it is more accurate.

A 9% difference in my portfolio is roughly $2k, as the part of my "trading" portfolio is small.

Let me go ahead and tally up the commissions I've paid this year.... 

I've paid $390.32 in commissions this year, but that has already been subtracted from my profit.

You can click on the spreadsheet below...


----------



## zylon

Belguy said:


> I would be interested in knowing if anyone out there has become more optimistic that this will end well or are you, like me, more pessimistic than ever that the European leaders are going to be able to stop this roll away freight train before it crashes.


Why don't you maintain an asset allocation that you will be comfortable with?
It seems you have the know-how to do that.

Roughly, my asset allocation is 25% precious metals; 25% energy; 25% real estate; 25% everything else including cash.
The cash component is enough for 2 years living expenses assuming Myrtle pays her own way :adjoint:

The only change I anticipate making is *if* 2012 ends 20% higher than it started, I'll likely go to 50% cash.










*One egg - one basket.*


----------



## Jungle

That book is really good; I have read it. ^^


----------



## Belguy

I too will sell on any significant bounce in the markets--perhaps in 2016 or so!!:frown:


----------



## KaeJS

Did we not just have a significant bounce from December - April?

There was plenty of time to take profits and adjust your allocation.


----------



## kcowan

KaeJS said:


> Did we not just have a significant bounce from December - April?
> 
> There was plenty of time to take profits and adjust your allocation.


He did but just not enough. He did a 10% adjustment because he is a cautious guy. But his greed got in the way of a more serious correction. Now he is regretting it and posting lots of reasons why it was a mistake. Let's just all agree with him and move on...


----------



## Belguy

Are we experiencing a recession or the onset of a depression?

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20120612/BIZ/706129975/1005

It's not a pretty picture!!:upset::frown::eek2::eek2:


----------



## Toronto.gal




----------



## Beaver101

LOL ... :biggrin:


----------



## Cal

I think that if Belguy were in ultra safe GIC's he would still complain that he is not earning the yield of BCE or whatever. For a guy that worries about the price/value of his stocks I have no idea why he didn't load up on dividend paying stocks, then no worries what the stock price is at, as long as it keeps paying a dividend, he has income to fund his retirement years.

Back to the topic....I think the markets are starting to price in a potential recession....Oil has dropped about 20% in a very short time....and some producers will be in trouble if the price stays below $70 a barrel for long.

I am most interested to see which countries do and do not follow through on their austerity measures, and how efficiently they each do so.


----------



## Belguy

You can hide your head in the sand if you wish but there are (very) tough times ahead!!

YEARS of volatility to come:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/af...ocId=CNG.efbbad8e08884e932bef6448ef63ce3a.101


----------



## Lephturn

Excellent! Bring on the volatility!

When I trade I need volatility. For my long term investments I need volatility! I know that is counter intuitive - I mean that as a dividend growth investor I rely on volatility and price pullbacks in my dividend payers to get more shares at a discount from time to time to accelerate my returns. Volatility is my friend.


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> You can hide your head in the sand if you wish but there are (very) tough times ahead!!
> 
> YEARS of volatility to come:
> 
> http://www.google.com/hostednews/af...ocId=CNG.efbbad8e08884e932bef6448ef63ce3a.101


OMG, you are unbelievable! The article you linked to, while having a very negative tone, could be viewed in an entirely different way using the exact same statistical projection. It all comes down to whether or not you are an optimist or a pessimist and you sir are a pessimist of the highest order! So what if there are years of volatility? ISTM that you are the one who wants to hide their head in the sand and wish it would all just go away, rather than taking the bull by the horns and trying to find a way to profit from this or at the vary least protect yourself. All you ever do is post an endless stream of this negative sh*t. Not once can I ever recall a constructive comment on your part about how you (and others) might be able to deal with this situation. You are like the worst sort of Internet troll who posts the way you do for your own entertainment with no interest in advancing helpful discussion. :livid:


----------



## Belguy

Just curious scomac, but why don't you have me on your 'ignore' list? Do you consider yourself part of the forum police patrol tasked with ensuring that my posts concerning the European debt crisis receive ample criticism and meet with your particular approval? This news is all over the financial media and so I assume that you are also visiting other sites to offer similar criticism. Please just do me a big favour and ignore my posts please and thank you.

In other news, my own particular version of a 'Couch Potato' portfolio is now down 5 per cent from it's high of April 2011. My current plan is to wait until I make that back and then reduce my equity allocation to 30 per cent
going forward from there.

Well, at least it's a plan!!

The run on European banks has begun:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/86614--europeans-draining-bank-accounts

Low volatility, dividend paying stocks:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...idend-stocks-for-stormy-times/article4253264/

Any thoughts on any of these?


----------



## scomac

The reason that you aren't on my ignore list is because (a) I don't run from a scrap; (b) It makes threads unreadable especially if the ignored poster frequent lots of threads versus their own pet projects.

Yes, you are right; there are lots of web sites offering stories about the Euro crisis however, you are a bit unique in that you are using this venue as a sort of collecting pot to harp on this in 'Chicken Little' style by providing links to every piece written by every source and crack pot that you can find that tends to fawn your own particular viewpoint.

You would love for me to ignore you, probably just as much as I would love for you to amend your posting style, so I have an offer for you: I won't harp on you anymore if you quit harping on the end of the world with every sound bite that you run across. Do we have an accord?

Regarding your plan -- You're only off 5% from your all time high. If you are as concerned about the future as you appear to be, then why wait to rebalance down to 30% equity exposure? Sure, it would be nice to get back to that magic number, but if you've been investing for longer than the last 18 months, you are most likely well above your ACB for the various equity components that you would be selling. What happens if the portfolio drops by another 20%? How will you feel then and more importantly, how will you react? Honestly, if you are for real and are as anxious about the future as your posts indicate, then it makes absolutely no sense to wait to get back to a high point to rebalance. You've already of the mind that this isn't going to happen any time soon and in the mean time all hell is going to break loose. If nothing else, you represent an interesting case study on the impacts of fear and greed on investor behavior.


----------



## 44545

Belguy said:


> ...my own particular version of a 'Couch Potato' portfolio is now down 5 per cent from it's high of April 2011. My current plan is to wait until I make that back and then reduce my equity allocation to 30 per cent
> going forward from there...


From "The Four Pillars of Investing" which you would benefit from reading:



> A superb metaphor for the long-term/short-term dichotomy in stock returns comes from Ralph Wanger, the witty and incisive principal of the Acorn Funds.
> 
> He likens the market to an excitable dog on a very long leash in New York City, darting randomly in every direction. The dog's owner is walking from Columbus Circle, through Central Park, to the Metropolitan Museum. At any one moment, there is no predicting which way the pooch will lurch. But in the long run, you know he's heading northeast at an average speed of three miles per hour.
> 
> What is astonishing is that almost all of the market players, big and small, seem to have their eye on the dog, and not the owner.


Stop watching the dog.


----------



## KaeJS

Wow.

Sounds like a good book.

I had never heard that before, however, it is 100% true. Except in the case of 08/09, where the dog ran back home and may have gotten lost temporarily.


----------



## sags

The money isn't moving out of Spain, but simply from Spanish banks to the branches of other foreign banks.

Perhaps nationalizing one of the Spanish banks and guaranteeing deposits would help.

Then let the other banks fail.

Sooner of later..........toxic banks are going to have to be let fail. Future taxpayers can't bail them out forever.

Free market capitalism might work........if they quit interfering with the cleansing process.............bankruptcy.


----------



## daddybigbucks

sags said:


> The money isn't moving out of Spain, but simply from Spanish banks to the branches of other foreign banks.
> 
> Perhaps nationalizing one of the Spanish banks and guaranteeing deposits would help.
> 
> Then let the other banks fail.
> 
> Sooner of later..........toxic banks are going to have to be let fail. Future taxpayers can't bail them out forever.
> 
> Free market capitalism might work........if they quit interfering with the cleansing process.............bankruptcy.


i havent followed this thread but there was a great observation on BNN by some blonde lady that really struck me.

She said that everytime a European government gets in power to change the system and starts to tighten the reins to deal with the debt, the opposition party promises more jobs and less hardships so the opposition party wins the next election.

one step forward and then two steps backwards. If this is true, i would think Europe will be in trouble for a while.


----------



## 44545

KaeJS said:


> Wow.
> 
> Sounds like a good book.
> 
> I had never heard that before, however, it is 100% true. Except in the case of 08/09, where the dog ran back home and may have gotten lost temporarily.


*laughs* I like to think the owner stopped into a deli to wait out a passing thunder storm, with the dog cowering at his feet, hiding from the thunder. They're now back on their way to their destination, until the next storm. 

I saw the book on Bogleheads.org being recommended by heavy hitters like Larry Swedroe, Rick Ferry, and Taylor Larimore. To my mind, it should be the first book anyone reads on investing. (there's a chapter on measuring the risk vs. return of financial instruments that's a wonderful antidote to "tech bubbles" - which have been happening cyclically for *hundreds* of years)


----------



## zylon

*European Parliament, Strasbourg, 13 June 2012*

I assure you, Nigel is way more interesting to listen to than Jamie Dimon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN_1mF-3JTI

*"the Euro Titanic has now hit the Iceberg and sadly there simply aren't enough lifeboats."*
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/farage-euro-titanic-has-now-hit-iceberg


----------



## humble_pie

Lephturn said:


> Excellent! Bring on the volatility!
> 
> When I trade I need volatility. For my long term investments I need volatility! I know that is counter intuitive - I mean that as a dividend growth investor I rely on volatility and price pullbacks in my dividend payers to get more shares at a discount from time to time to accelerate my returns. Volatility is my friend.


this is true. I always feel cheeriest on the crazy, awful days. Right, lepht ?


----------



## fatcat

zylon said:


> I assure you, Nigel is way more interesting to listen to than Jamie Dimon.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN_1mF-3JTI
> 
> *"the Euro Titanic has now hit the Iceberg and sadly there simply aren't enough lifeboats."*
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/farage-euro-titanic-has-now-hit-iceberg


yes, i agree with that, dimon is a walking platitude factory, whereas it is a kick to see farage go off on an anti euro tirade and then watch the faces of all the bureaucrats and technocrats sit there and make faces


----------



## Belguy

scomac, perhaps you could explain to us why this thread has received 34,535 views if it is as boring and uninteresting as you contend.

Could it be that it's because we don't all see things the way that you do?


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> scomac, perhaps you could explain to us why this thread has received 34,535 views if it is as boring and uninteresting as you contend.


A morbid fascination with your histrionics? If not that then perhaps it is as simple to explain as the power of Google search.



> Could it be that it's because we don't all see things the way that you do?


Well, you certainly don't. On balance, I would think that you have more detractors than those who sympathize with you. I suspect many have grown tired of the whole charade.


----------



## Belguy

And so, I repeat, do us all a favour and put me on your 'ignore' list as I assume that many who have "grown tired of the whole charade" already have. For my part, I have grown tired of the personal attacks from a very small minority on this otherwise interesting and enlightening financial forum.

I'm not looking for any sympathy in my postings but am just trying to follow where things are going in Europe. I could also care less how many detractors I have as I am not keeping a score card in that regard. I do realize that there are only a very few on this forum who resort to personal attacks when they don't agree with something while the rest use a little more discretion when disagreeing with a point of view as should always be the case.

'Nuff said!!


----------



## kcowan

Just because a person starts a thread, that does not give them ownership of the thread. So many people will participate because the other participants have interesting contributions to make. But I think I have to put him back on ignore. I took him off for a couple of months and that was a mistake.


----------



## Miser

Big Vote in Greece this weekend.


----------



## Belguy

A deepening crisis with no solution:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...pe-plunges-deeper-into-crisis/article4256076/


----------



## Miser

Interesting thing about the Euro Zone.

The $125 Billion bail out for Spain......Greece had to float a loan for about $18 Billion at 6+% to do their Euro part??
Make one basket case pay for the other!
Pretty phucked up in my mind.


----------



## al42

Greek exit polls project pro-bailout parties have enough support to form govt

http://www.news1130.com/news/world/...lout-parties-have-enough-support-to-form-govt


----------



## Belguy

We'll take very bit of good news that we can get. Thank you to the suffering Greek people for making the hard decision to stay with the euro. The road ahead will surely not be easy for them but they deserve our respect for doing the right thing.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/a...n-election-vow-to-keep-greece-in-the-eurozone

That's one small step in the right direction on the long and difficult road out of this huge economic mess that the world finds itself in.

We'll see how the markets react tomorrow but any euphoria is apt to be short-lived.


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> That's one small step in the right direction on the long and difficult road out of this huge economic mess that the world finds itself in.
> 
> We'll see how the markets react tomorrow but any euphoria is apt to be short-lived.


 This is exactly what all bears are telling....  . reading yor comment for a last year or two, I see that Belguy imho the most bearish member on this forum... I just don't undesrtand why he's investing against his feelings?!


----------



## fatcat

Belguy said:


> We'll take very bit of good news that we can get. Thank you to the suffering Greek people for making the hard decision to stay with the euro. The road ahead will surely not be easy for them but they deserve our respect for doing the right thing.
> 
> http://www.thestar.com/news/world/a...n-election-vow-to-keep-greece-in-the-eurozone
> 
> That's one small step in the right direction on the long and difficult road out of this huge economic mess that the world finds itself in.
> 
> We'll see how the markets react tomorrow but any euphoria is apt to be short-lived.


the right thing ? ... please explain how greece will dig themselves out of a very deep hole without the ability to have a devalued currency against the euro ? ... the combination of austerity and deep recession will inflict ongoing pain that will be almost unfixable ... not to mention this hardly does anything to address the massive trouble europe faces ... greece is like a guy who outruns a bear only to find he needs to now jump off a 300 foot cliff ...


----------



## Cal

fatcat said:


> greece is like a guy who outruns a bear only to find he needs to now jump off a 300 foot cliff ...


Well put. At least they have chosen to jump. :biggrin:


----------



## Belguy

I get attacked constantly on this forum for being it's biggest bear. However, there is plenty of negative sentiment out there right now and, if you happened to watch tonight's CBC's The National, it might have scared the pants off of you.

As to why I remain invested in equities, it is because I have read, time and time again, that successful investors refrain from market timing and stay invested through all market conditions. What allows me to sleep at night is that I have 50 per cent of my portfolio in fixed income and cash and I can draw on that first as the need arises.

That said, at the risk of having more darts thrown at me, I STILL can't see how this mess in the Euro zone can end well.


----------



## Miser

Belguy
Time will tell all.
No defense is neccessary, you just put in your opinion and let events fall where they may.

IMHO
Europe is a basket case!
WHEN it hits the skids is anybodys guess.
I will short the Euro on strength and see what happens.
The market is what it is, we have no input on events, we just make intelligent choices!


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> I get attacked constantly on this forum for being it's biggest bear. However, there is plenty of negative sentiment out there right now and, if you happened to watch tonight's CBC's The National, it might have scared the pants off of you.


Don't understand me wrong.... it's completely fine with me that somebody is bear and somebody is a bull, just if you are a bear - more logical to short the market and not to keep 50% indexes long...


----------



## kcowan

gibor said:


> Don't understand me wrong.... it's completely fine with me that somebody is bear and somebody is a bull, just if you are a bear - more logical to short the market and not to keep 50% indexes long...


or change your mind in the month after March when you were a bull....


----------



## fatcat

Belguy said:


> I get attacked constantly on this forum for being it's biggest bear. However, there is plenty of negative sentiment out there right now and, if you happened to watch tonight's CBC's The National, it might have scared the pants off of you.
> 
> As to why I remain invested in equities, it is because I have read, time and time again, that successful investors refrain from market timing and stay invested through all market conditions. What allows me to sleep at night is that I have 50 per cent of my portfolio in fixed income and cash and I can draw on that first as the need arises.
> 
> That said, at the risk of having more darts thrown at me, I STILL can't see how this mess in the Euro zone can end well.


it has nothing to do with you being a bear .. i read the bears and i read the bulls and i mistrust them both .. it has to do with the fact that this forum is the equivalent of belguys worry beads .. if things are down you fret about your equity portion and gloat about your bonds .. when things are up you tell everyone to buy hold and prosper ... you constantly change your mind and we have to cope with your neurosis throughout it all ... 

to top it off, from what i remember, you are pretty well set up, you are retired and have plenty of money invested and yet the griping never stops .. 

i am tired of hearing about the ongoing status of your portfolio, i practically have it memorized

the bitching and moaning has outrun the useful information ... 

sorry to be so blunt, but there it is


----------



## Belguy

Everybody is entitled to their opinion but that doesn't take away the bad news:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob.../no-end-to-euro-zone-troubles/article4301174/


----------



## Toronto.gal

Pardon my kjfasjgfajgg words!


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> Pardon my kjfasjgfajgg words!


 what language is it?! sounds like icelandian


----------



## Toronto.gal

How did you guess Gibor? layful:

I gather that you remembered Eyjafjallajökull, LOL. I should have written απαισιόδοξος. :rolleyes2:

Speaking of which, you're aware am sure, that they want to adopt a more stable currency than the krona, like the loonie or the euro.

*"Perhaps the half of the country that sits on the North American tectonic plate pulling westward should get the loonie, while the other half on the Eurasian plate pulling east makes do with the euro."* :chuncky:

http://www.economist.com/node/21549967

"Iceland could become an EU member in 2014 since it would take around 2 years for all EU member states to ratify the Accession Treaty. It was previously thought that Iceland and Croatia might join the EU at the same time, however, with Croatia set to join the EU on 1 July 2013, Iceland would join later than Croatia."

And for those who can't get enough of Europe: :encouragement:

*Future enlargement of the European Union*
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_candidate_countries


----------



## Toronto.gal

As this is the much loved EU thread, any soccer fans here? If so, who are you rooting for? I'll say la bella Italia!










*Quote from Belguy's favourite CDN newspaper:*

"A Dutch energy company recently aired an ad that advises women to keep their husbands from attending the Euro 2012 because they are likely to be seduced by Ukraine's attractive women. Kiev protested the ad as “humiliating and discriminatory.” :biggrin: :rolleyes2:

"Ukraine splurged approximately $13bn on projects linked to the tournament, while Poland spent about $25bn."
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8f262fb4-b3d9-11e1-8fea-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1yG4yxi53

Quiz: what country is hosting the 2014 FIFA World Cup? Hint: not in Europe.


----------



## Causalien

Or they can be an interested wife who wants to see soccer with their husband.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Couldn't agree more, but don't you believe that there are some husbands who rather go alone and leave their wives at home to care for the kids?


----------



## Four Pillars

Toronto.gal said:


> Couldn't agree more, but don't you believe that there are some husbands who rather go alone and leave their wives at home to care for the kids?


Yes, that sounds good to me. 

Germany all the way!!!


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> As this is the much loved EU thread, any soccer fans here? If so, who are you rooting for? I'll say la bella Italia!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Quote from Belguy's favourite CDN newspaper:*
> 
> "A Dutch energy company recently aired an ad that advises women to keep their husbands from attending the Euro 2012 because they are likely to be seduced by Ukraine's attractive women. Kiev protested the ad as “humiliating and discriminatory.” :biggrin: :rolleyes2:
> 
> "Ukraine splurged approximately $13bn on projects linked to the tournament, while Poland spent about $25bn."
> http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8f262fb4-b3d9-11e1-8fea-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1yG4yxi53
> 
> Quiz: what country is hosting the 2014 FIFA World Cup? Hint: not in Europe.


Brazil!!

Poland is out and that pretty much all I cared about, many of my pool picks are already out (Russia, Holland, Sweden, Croatia just to name a few) so I can't even win any money hence I will now turn my attention to gardening which I quite enjoy ;-)

Apart from modern stadiums there was also a whole lot of infrastructure build for the tournament, especially highways and transportation related which will benefit the countries for the long term, and I don't believe the amounts spend are high enough to cripple the economies for the future, especially Poland should be able to deal with this farily easily since it's economy seems to be most vibrant of all the countries from the former Soviet block.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> "A Dutch energy company recently aired an ad that advises women to keep their husbands from attending the Euro 2012 because they are likely to be seduced by Ukraine's attractive women. Kiev protested the ad as “humiliating and discriminatory.”


Quote from a recent cold-war era based movie I watched:
_If the Russians had deployed their women instead of their missiles, we would all be wearing fur hats and drinking vodka right now._

Of course, majorly politically incorrect statement, so I apologise if I offended anyone but I am not the source of that quote.
It is the venerable actor Richard Gere.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Homerhomer said:


> 1. Brazil!!
> 2. Poland is out and that pretty much all I cared about...
> 3. Apart from modern stadiums there was also a whole lot of infrastructure build for the tournament, especially highways and transportation related which will *benefit the countries for the long term*.....


1. You're a winner and I hope my Brazilian stocks will be, too, by 2014. :biggrin:
2. I know exactly what you mean. :wink: But you need to pick a country to root for; the game is more enjoyable when you want one to be crushed! :beaten:
3. I agree! Such important & necessary infrastructure developments [like the ones you mentioned], are vital & very much part of a country's economic growth.


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> Of course, majorly politically incorrect statement, so I apologise if I offended anyone but I am not the source of that quote.


No apologies needed Harold for it seems that I have taken over this thread for now, and humourless folks are not allowed to enter, at least not today when the markets are up! :biggrin:


----------



## rusty23

Homerhomer said:


> Brazil!!
> 
> Poland is out and that pretty much all I cared about, many of my pool picks are already out (Russia, Holland, Sweden, Croatia just to name a few) so I can't even win any money hence I will now turn my attention to gardening which I quite enjoy ;-)
> 
> Apart from modern stadiums there was also a whole lot of infrastructure build for the tournament, especially highways and transportation related which will benefit the countries for the long term, and I don't believe the amounts spend are high enough to cripple the economies for the future, especially Poland should be able to deal with this farily easily since it's economy seems to be most vibrant of all the countries from the former Soviet block.



http://www.theobserver.ca/2012/06/11/host-countries-paying-price-for-uefa-follies

the only problem is those projects haven't been completed and will they be long after the tournament is over?


----------



## Homerhomer

rusty23 said:


> http://www.theobserver.ca/2012/06/11/host-countries-paying-price-for-uefa-follies
> 
> the only problem is those projects haven't been completed and will they be long after the tournament is over?


The article is full of bias and incorrect information and actually not even worth quoting. Aside that no tournament of that magnitutude will ever be without hicups and some issues, there will always be some projects that have not been fully completed and money wasted. The author of the article knows absolutely nothing about Eastern Europe, however the remarks that would be accurate 30 years ago do find an audience.

About ten years ago I took a train from Warsaw to Poznan, about 350km in less then three hours and comfort CNR would be jelous about ;-)


----------



## Sampson

If Cristiano Ronaldo can continue to play well, Portugal. Otherwise Germany has easily looked the strongest in tournament play.

I was calling for the Netherlands at the beginning - looks like I can call football matches as well as I can pick stocks.


----------



## rusty23

Homerhomer said:


> The article is full of bias and incorrect information and actually not even worth quoting. Aside that no tournament of that magnitutude will ever be without hicups and some issues, there will always be some projects that have not been fully completed and money wasted. The author of the article knows absolutely nothing about Eastern Europe, however the remarks that would be accurate 30 years ago do find an audience.
> 
> About ten years ago I took a train from Warsaw to Poznan, about 350km in less then three hours and comfort CNR would be jelous about ;-)


Ya i noticed i was only able to find that article (linked to the Toronto Sun even better lol). 

I wouldn't compare with infrastructural here thought thats not a very high bar to set. GTA is pathetic.


----------



## dogcom

I am not really into soccer but the Germany vs Greece game in the Euro quarter final is a big deal with all the crap going on over there. How will Germany feel if they lose to Greece? maybe they will pull the plug right there and say try to make a go of it now. If Germany wins then they could say that is the first payback Greece will make. Anyway it does make for an interesting match. http://technorati.com/sports/article/germany-vs-greece-more-than-just/


----------



## Toronto.gal

Yes, dogcom, it is going to be a very interesting/nail-biting quarterfinals to say the least & I'll be supporting the underdog, if for no other reason than for having beaten the Russians! :encouragement: 

"Germany will be up against Greece in the quarterfinals in Gdansk, Poland, the biggest contributor to the bailout funds playing against the nation that ignited Europe's debt woes.
Among the 17-nation eurozone's financially troubled nations, only Ireland was sent home this week after failing to reach the quarterfinals."

Who says we can't mix politics with sports? 

Where is the OP btw? :biggrin:


----------



## Eclectic12

Homerhomer said:


> ...
> About ten years ago I took a train from Warsaw to Poznan, about 350km in less then three hours and comfort CNR would be jelous about ;-)


Hmmm ... I believe CNR and most other railroads in North America have proven they want nothing to do with passenger traffic. Now the public at hand or VIA train riders on the other hand are a different story .... :biggrin:


Cheers


----------



## dogcom

T.Gal I was talking to the crew of Air Berlin today and they would certainly like to take out Greece even by 10 goals if it was possible.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Just by 10 goals? LOL. I wouldn't be surprised as the Germans are tough, but who can blame them for wanting to humiliate the Greeks. :biggrin:

Can't wait to see the game!

21/06 - Czech Republic vs. Portugal [ I pick Portugal]
22/06 - Germany vs. Greece [πάμε Ελλάδα]
23/06 - Spain vs. France [andale España]
24/06 - England vs. Italy [viva la bella Italia sempre]

Let the best teams win!


----------



## Belguy

Is this a sports forum or what??


----------



## Toronto.gal

Well, they are being played in Europe and it will affect their economies & tempers. 

LOL, I knew you would come back now that the markets are down. :highly_amused:


----------



## Belguy

What news is there to cause any long term upswing in the markets? 

Have the economists and politicians taken any of the strong action needed to set the economy on the road to recovery aside from their normal tinkering which has accomplished nothing?

None other than Bernanke himself stated clearly yesterday that things are not getting any better!!

Are we a few years into a lost decade for equities?

It must be hard to be an optimist these days!!!:encouragement:eaceful::untroubled::eagerness:


----------



## Sampson

Toronto.gal said:


> Czech Republic vs. Portugal [ I pick Portugal]


Ditto


Toronto.gal said:


> 6 - Germany vs. Greece [πάμε Ελλάδα]


Ditto


Toronto.gal said:


> 23/06 - Spain vs. France [andale España]


Ditto


Toronto.gal said:


> 24/06 - England vs. Italy [viva la bella Italia sempre]


Ahhh, I have confidence in England this year for some reason - call this my darkhorse pick

I also predict that Europe, despite economic woes, will continue to run the Euro cup, and that 2016 will be more political than a simple Germany-Greece matchup.


----------



## Belguy

Coming in 2013--the next 'Great Contraction':

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/...sion-no-doesnt-seem-anyone-does?newsfeed=true

Also, the G20 "weasels":

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ow-in-weasel-words/article4353935/?cmpid=rss1


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> What news is there to cause any long term upswing in the markets?


Nothing that I'm aware of. The markets will be rebounding long before we realize that things are getting better. 



> Have the economists and politicians taken any of the strong action needed to set the economy on the road to recovery aside from their normal tinkering which has accomplished nothing?


I don't think they even know what the heck to do. Their certainly isn't any sort of strong consensus as to what strong action should be taken.



> None other than Bernanke himself stated clearly yesterday that things are not getting any better!!


He's right.



> Are we a few years into a lost decade for equities?


Maybe. It has been over 20 years now and counting for Japan. Do you still think those 1.5% Treasuries are all that bad?



> It must be hard to be an optimist these days!!!:encouragement:eaceful::untroubled::eagerness:


Darn near impossible. The only solace you can take is that the majority always get it wrong and overshoot the mark, both on the upside and on the downside. If the worst case is priced in, then chances are that what actually happens won't be that bad and we will be able to make out OK or at least as well as can be hoped for. Deal with it. If you can't deal with it, get out! After all, it is only money; if you're not dying with cancer, you're a whole helluva lot better off than some folks!


----------



## Belguy

That's right--it's only money and so the heck with it. I do however feel sorry for those poor folks stuck in their daily commute to their daily job grind hoping that their investments would do well and allow them to retire early according to their plan only to see those plans come undone by these lousy market conditions resulting in their having to work a few years longer than they had planned. On the other hand, if they still have a job, maybe they are the luckier ones!!

Sadly, there are a lot of dreams going up in smoke in this economy.

Also, will Merkel bend?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ttle-or-risk-a-total-collapse/article4361952/


----------



## sags

Belguy said:


> That's right--it's only money and so the heck with it. I do however feel sorry for those poor folks stuck in their daily commute to their daily job grind hoping that their investments would do well and allow them to retire early according to their plan only to see those plans come undone by these lousy market conditions resulting in their having to work a few years longer than they had planned. On the other hand, if they still have a job, maybe they are the luckier ones!!
> 
> Sadly, there are a lot of dreams going up in smoke in this economy.
> 
> *Also, will Merkel bend?*
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ttle-or-risk-a-total-collapse/article4361952/


With 80% of the German people opposed to any bailouts to the other Euro countries, Merkel will have to be willing to give up her political career to fashion a deal. Perhaps she must............but that doesn't mean she will.

Politics and economics..........have become one.


----------



## HaroldCrump

sags said:


> Politics and economics..........have become one.


I can't think of a time when it wasn't.
Julius Caesar and Hammurabi would agree.

It used to be taught in the universities as _political economy_, until the high priests of the ivory tower decided that somehow economics must be a "science", it must be "mathematical", and must have complicated differential equations to understand common sense problems.


----------



## Belguy

That is exactly what is wrong with the system. The politicians are in charge and their main motivation for whatever they do is to get themselves re-elected. If they follow ideals that are unpopular with most voters, out they go as has just happened in France. Of course, the voters want more, more, more of everything and less austerity and so the difficult, but correct, decisions are often delayed or never made.

And so, we head for the cliff and the abyss below--the abyss being a world wide recession or possibly the great economic contraction of this new century.

They're playing with fire.


----------



## Miser

Belguy said:


> That is exactly what is wrong with the system. The politicians are in charge and their main motivation for whatever they do is to get themselves re-elected. If they follow ideals that are unpopular with most voters, out they go as has just happened in France. Of course, the voters want more, more, more of everything and less austerity and so the difficult, but correct, decisions are often delayed or never made.
> 
> And so, we head for the cliff and the abyss below--the abyss being a world wide recession or possibly the great economic contraction of this new century.
> 
> They're playing with fire.


That sums up the problem with democracy.
Now we have too many self interest groups, no sense of ALL!

I see a protracted slide until Sept when the Bernake talks again.


----------



## kcowan

Miser said:


> I see a protracted slide until Sept when the Bernake talks again.


The Fed can't fix this problem. It is bigger than them. They might mask it or delay it though.


----------



## Cal

They will patch it, over and over again. I think we are going to have several years of sideways markets and economies. 

I couldn't have said it any better myself: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...investors-learn-fear-is-toxic/article4363924/


----------



## Miser

kcowan said:


> The Fed can't fix this problem. It is bigger than them. They might mask it or delay it though.


There is a price to pay for fiscal mismanagement.
The Grim Reaper gets his due.

Not over night but sooner than we think.


----------



## fatcat

i'm not trying to out-belguy belguy
but this is a pretty sobering article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47940591
the people quoted are managers of some very, very big funds and they seem beyond nervous
i have been thinking all these bond buyers are looking nuts but maybe they know something i don't know


----------



## riseofamillionaire

fatcat said:


> i'm not trying to out-belguy belguy
> but this is a pretty sobering article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47940591
> the people quoted are managers of some very, very big funds and they seem beyond nervous
> i have been thinking all these bond buyers are looking nuts but maybe they know something i don't know


I few this as a contrarian positive - I could invision a lot of newbies selling positions based on this scare tactic, almost always the wrong move


----------



## Miser

Strange why if you are a bear......you are unwelcome?


Tell me 3 good things about this economy???

Employment......debt......deficit......growth......confidence.......housing..........etc.

What side you wanna be on?

Think about it.....just for a while........


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sampson said:


> Ahhh, I have confidence in England this year..


Sorry England lost, but your score of 2/4 wasn't too bad; I scored 3/4, but in reality, it was 4/4 as I knew Germany would win [I just did not want to root for them]. :biggrin:

So, who do you think will move to the finals? I'm rooting for Italy/Spain! 

Another good day to pick bargains Belguy. :encouragement:


----------



## Sampson

@ T-Gal,

Yeah, told you my football pcisk were as good as my stock picks.
Germany - Portugal.
Hopefully the games in the semi-finals will be a little more exciting.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sampson: perhaps this year [with low prices], you'll become a better stock picker. :encouragement:

Let us be right with at least 1 team!


----------



## Belguy

Another down day so far and so nothing good to say. Bears are not welcome on this forum and so I won't add anything to this.


----------



## Nick1357

Just a couple comments:

I was sitting on the plane yesterday with a rather interesting guy who seemed knowledgeable, or at least more so than myself, about the economy and stock markets etc. He studied some type of economics in university, I forget exactly what. Anyway, he was saying that he recently sold most of his stocks and purchased bonds and gold/silver as he believes we are looking at another correction in the market in the near future. He believes that it is not a matter of if the Euro will break up but when. He figures they will drag things out a bit more before eventually breaking up into their separate currencies within the next 1-5 years.

Also, as a bit of an economic indicator, I work in an industry that services the heavy industrial sector and we have noticed a softness in the market over the last little while(6 months, maybe more). It had been starting to slowly pick up since the the 08/09 mess but now seems rather slow to me anyways.


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## Sampson

Bear markets make everyone a wonderful stock picker.
In fact, my dart-board approach during 08/09 showed me to be a genius.

Belguy, its not that bears are not welcome, it has nothing to do with the direction of your opinion. But people that show 'extreme' or uncompromising opinions make for some pretty boring conversation. I don't know how many articles you have linked that have the same message.

I'm not sure people are refuting that Europe is in a big mess. We all know and see this. Another investing guru, pundit, economist, journalist, banker, central banker, president, prime minister, local politician, forum member saying Europe is in a big mess is neither news, nor a discussion point.

Let us forsee how this will continue to play out.
1) There is lots of debt in the World - check
2) World economies are going to suffer because no one has any money to buy things
3) It will take time for either (1) debt to be reduced, (2) or purchasing to come from elsewhere (possibly the emerging markets)
4) Politicians will continue to enact economic decisions in their best interest (Germany not accepting bailouts)
5) Central bankers will continue using strategies to prevent large scale collapse (QE, Operation Twist, more QE)
6) There is lots of debt in the World - check

Yes, this will take a long time to sort out. If you are retired, with money in the markets, it sucks. People about to retire are suffering from the risk that they begin retirement with a smaller portfolio - but there are other coping strategies.

Retirement isn't all about investing in equities markets, nor is World economics about the latest and most fantastic headline.

Lots ideas in this post. Maybe we could actually discuss something now.

p.s. 
1) Ronaldo will continue to play well. He gets a bad rap because he is so pretty.
2) Tiki-taka is dead.
3) The Italians deserved to win, but barely could.
4) Germany has not shown any weaknesses.

5) Decisions in the EU should be determined based on the outcomes of football matches. (if Spain wants some bailout money, they need to earn it on the pitch - I say 10 billion Euros for every goal they score.

If they get kicked out of the Euro, they should also be kicked out of the EU.


----------



## gibor365

Interesting article "Previewing the European Summit June 28-29". ..."being long U.S. equities through an index ETF such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) and being short euro stocks through the iShares MSCI EMU Index (NYSE: EZU). Such a strategy would profit from the outperformance of U.S. equites vs. EMU equities"

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bon...the-european-summit-june-28-29##ixzz1yq5Lvr00

http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/12/06/2694841/previewing-the-european-summit-june-28-29#


----------



## fatcat

riseofamillionaire said:


> I few this as a contrarian positive - I could invision a lot of newbies selling positions based on this scare tactic, almost always the wrong move


i view it as a cautionary tale ... think of the current investing climate as a road that runs parallel and a few feet from a 4000 foot cliff ... yes, there is a road and yes, you can drive down it but it behooves you to pay attention ... i consider myself neither a bull or bear ... i just want to see what's out there ... you and i have very different scenarios when it comes to rebuilding lost capital


----------



## Four Pillars

Sampson said:


> [good post content]


Great post Sampson - one of the very few in this thread.

To continue your idea, if the Habs don't make the playoffs next year, should Quebec be kicked out of Canada?


----------



## londoncalling

Miser said:


> Tell me 3 good things about this economy???


1. 2008 was an excellent buying opportunity just like it is now
2. This economy is an excellent buying opportunity
3. Buying opportunities everywhere


Can the market continue downward? YES... Will it ever go back up? guaranteed...


----------



## Belguy

What will cause the markets to reverse direction and turn from a secular bear to a secular bull market and how long is it likely to take for this to happen---days, weeks, months, or potentially many years?

During these times of world wide deleveraging, what percentage of a portfolio should a retired person have in equities--zero??

There is no way that this is going to end well for investors:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...seems-doomed-before-it-starts/article4369734/

The end of growth:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-not-growing-your-bottom-line/article4369708/


----------



## Miser

londoncalling said:


> 1. 2008 was an excellent buying opportunity just like it is now
> 2. This economy is an excellent buying opportunity
> 3. Buying opportunities everywhere
> 
> 
> Can the market continue downward? YES... Will it ever go back up? guaranteed...


WHY????
What are the macro and micro trends you like?
I see few, explain why you would be long.

This is an exchange of ideas and opinions but it is nice to see reasons.


----------



## dubmac

Belguy said:


> What will cause the markets to reverse direction and turn from a secular bear to a secular bull market and how long is it likely to take for this to happen---days, weeks, months, or potentially many years?
> 
> During these times of world wide deleveraging, what percentage of a portfolio should a retired person have in equities--zero??
> 
> There is no way that this is going to end well for investors:
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...seems-doomed-before-it-starts/article4369734/
> 
> The end of growth:
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-not-growing-your-bottom-line/article4369708/



Bellguy - I read your link above and found this link that included a discussion with Moshe Milevsky quite informative! 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...s-to-a-comfortable-retirement/article4229441/


----------



## Sampson

Miser said:


> WHY????
> What are the macro and micro trends you like?


Worldwide GDPs are either negative or low compared to historical times of economic growth.

One has to assume that:
1) They will continue to drop forever
2) They will stay the same forever
or
3) They will rise and growth will occur because people can afford to buy things, and their is a massive burgeoning consumer base in emerging markets.

Stocks a reasonably priced at this moment based on trailing and near-future earnings. If earnings begin to grow as the economy recovers, then stock markets will follow.

When will this happen? Who knows.
Do we have more periods of 0 or negative growth? Probably.
Will economies recover? Well they better, otherwise I have to start buying more cans or food and diapers.


----------



## londoncalling

Miser said:


> WHY????
> What are the macro and micro trends you like?
> I see few, explain why you would be long.
> 
> This is an exchange of ideas and opinions but it is nice to see reasons.


Like others here on this forum I do not see a visible uptrend as of yet :biggrin:. To answer your questions as to why I am long is for the following:

1. I have no idea when the downward trend will reverse so I am willing to buy in tranches as it continues down...Since I do not have the luxury of being able to watch the market every minute I am not able to get in on a moments notice...
2. Valuations and dividend rates are attractive in comparison to historical averages and companies have cleaned up their balance sheets considerably. I am happy to buy a stock that yields 5% or more when 3 months ago it was yielding 3%. Considering nothing has really changed except for the price of shares in that time frame.
3. Be greedy when others are fearful.

and most importantly for me...

4. I have a minimum time horizon of at least 30 years, Even if I am off 5% in either direction I will be ok. I am still in the accumulation phase and see little gains to be made sitting in gics or a large cash position. 

By buying in chunks you can hedge your bets. It is nearly impossible to time the bottom and for me close is good enough. I plan on making some purchases over the summer. Will the Euromess be solved any time soon? I doubt it. Bandaid solutions? Maybe. Could this be the lost decade that belguy fears? Maybe. Is the market going to zero? Definitely not... In the meantime I will pick up some solid companies on sale that will pay me some dividends while I wait. Energy has been looking good as of late even though I am overweight in that sector

Of the 3 possibilities Sampson presents I can rule out 1 + 2. They could continue to drop for awhile and they could continue to stay flat for awhile (look at Japan).

Seeing as I have no certainty of where things will go I will play probabilities and guess that in 10 or 20 years we will be on a bull run.


----------



## Miser

This is a different investment climate than past.
The massive debt at all levels of government were not present when valuations of past cycles occurred.
Unemployment at un seen levels, if you use the old recording stats.....way worse.
That is the money needed to fuel the economy.
We never had a massive economy tettering on the brink(Europe) like today.
Housing is a basket case.
In past recoveries ever seen banks fail and needing massive bailouts??
US GDP to debt at historic levels. Unsustainable and getting worse.
Debt ceiling raised and raise, and will be raised again.

It's a whole new ugly world out there.

These are just some of my reasons to tread softly with going long.
I wish all the bulls GL....I believe you will need it, and QE 3,4,5.........

Once again, this is not an overnight scenario.
Guns and bullets are a long way away if ever.
Just my macro slant on how I see this unfolding.


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## ddkay

I don't know where the market is since 3 weeks ago and I don't care  Enjoy the rest of summer, 2013 is 6 months away...


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## Sampson

Miser said:


> This is a different investment climate than past.


Different than:
the great depression? (unemployment 25%)
the double dip? (unemployment 19%)
1979 energy crisis? (unemployment 11%)

Equity markets? (S&P500)
1931 -47.1%
1937 -38.6%
2008 -38.5%
1974 -29.7%
1930 -24.5%
2002 -23.4%


----------



## Miser

Very different than

In those times the debt wasn't was it is today nor were the interest rates(no where to go)

I am not posting to be right nor for you.
This is all about me......I want to hear WHY you would go long? More reasons would be great.

If I am wrong............ and sh!t, I may be.
I want to be talked out of my position.

I change in a heart beat ,with the market.....I let it dicate.

I love discussion and reasons why, you like what you like.

Thanxs Sampson.....appreciate the good input!



Am I hi jacking this thread??? Oops....if I am.
Moving this to my sell sell thread.




Keep it coming.


----------



## dogcom

What is different then in the past is the massive use of derivatives and the scale of financial intervention.


----------



## scomac

Miser said:


> Very different than
> 
> In those times the debt wasn't was it is today nor were the interest rates(no where to go)


The great thing about history is that while it may not repeat, it often rhymes. While the situation today is far different in the details than the others mentioned up-thread, I think it is helpful to stand back a bit and look at things from a broader perspective. Through out history, you will notice that all great collapses were preceded by a period of speculative excess and exuberant growth. Were the 1920's that much different than the 1990-2000's in terms of tenor? How about Japan in the 70's and 80's? Or if you want to go back much further we can use the tulip craze in Holland or the South Seas Co. in Britain in previous centuries. After every great period of expansion there is a subsequent period to blow off the speculative excess and retrenchment. That's what we're going through right now. The soft landing, if you will, has been or is in the process of being fashioned so what we are left with is the work off of the excess. The big problem I see here is expectations. With our nanosecond attention span, folks seem to be of the mind that things will turn around pretty quickly when in actual fact it's going to take years to work through the excess. Japan is still working through theirs more than 20 years after the fact.

So where does that leave us? 

Interest rates are going to continue to stay low because they have to. It's the only way to get debt paid off without default, contrary to the popular notion that debts will be inflated away. The problem with inflation is that it is hard to create it when supply outstrips demand and right now the savers (emerging economies) out number the borrowers (developed economies). The only thing that is going to change that dynamic is for the savers to start spending and I don`t see that ground swell happening without a generational turnover with a different mindset in those particular societies.

Stocks look cheap, especially with record amounts of cash on the balance sheets, but that begs a question. Why aren't more companies spending their cash? I suspect they`re nervous. It`s tough paying off acquisitions in a grinding economy. That`s why they overpay during boom times because it`s easier to pay it off even at the higher price. Profit margins are at all time highs for many companies so all efficiencies have been wrung out of the operations. Maybe stocks aren't so cheap after-all if the prospects for growth are weak into the foreseeable future. Still, at current interest rates, the earnings yield on stocks is such that you are being compensated for equity risk, so you probably should be there because no one knows when things will turn and it is likely that we`ll see rallies whether things are really turning around or not. Furthermore, when many stocks yield more than Treasuries it`s sort of like having your cake and eating it too with the cashflow and essentially a free call option on the future provided you don`t need access to the capital.

Commodities -- does anybody really know what the supply/demand component is versus the speculative component to prices? If a lot of the price of commodities is based upon inevitable inflation, when will that trade get tired of waiting if it doesn't materialize as quickly as expected? How much longer do they wait? 2 years; 5 years; 10? I like trees; they`re sustainable and it`s easy enough to just stop harvesting when prices are poor. Yet, these two positive features may well explain why the lumber, paper and pulp complex never really participated in the great commodity bull market because they are necessarily scarce or expensive/difficult to extract like many of the `finite`commodities.

It`s times like these that make it abundantly clear that you must have a long term plan and stick to it because we never really know what is going to happen. The only thing we can be reasonably certain of is that it won`t be as bad as we fear and it won`t be as good as we had hoped.


----------



## Sampson

Miser said:


> Am I hi jacking this thread??? Oops....if I am.
> Moving this to my sell sell thread.


You won't get many complaints. It is good to discuss things in this thread.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sampson said:


> Germany - Portugal.


Maybe Germany, but Spain beat Portugal 2day.


----------



## fatcat

Sampson said:


> Different than:
> the great depression? (unemployment 25%)
> the double dip? (unemployment 19%)
> 1979 energy crisis? (unemployment 11%)
> 
> Equity markets? (S&P500)
> 1931 -47.1%
> 1937 -38.6%
> 2008 -38.5%
> 1974 -29.7%
> 1930 -24.5%
> 2002 -23.4%


as others have said, except for 2002 and 2008, take a look at both the savings rate and the the accumulation of debt ... that's what is new here ... also, i don't think the fed has found itself so out of ammunition in terms of its ability to move markets


----------



## Sampson

Yeah... it was pretty painful to watch.
Cristiano Ronaldo had 3 great chances and blew them. He was getting so many calls too, probably a first in his life time.

See, my stock picking is as good as my gambling. I should have taken the 'passive index investing' approach to my soccer picks.

Can I revise my pick? I predict that a European country will win the Euro Cup 2012.


----------



## Sampson

fatcat said:


> the accumulation of debt ... that's what is new here


No doubt, but there is no reason to think that deleveraging is not working, nor that it will not be successful. Many places in the World have been in prolonged recession but its really not as bad as 2008.

Think back, for some reason our memories are so short. The World Financial markets were about to collapse. Everyone was going to go under, well most American financial institutions. We aren't anywhere near that sort of mess now. Europe, and Germany, if pressed to action, will have to use some of the techniques the american fed has been using. Although hard-lined, I doubt Chancellor Merkel will allow the EU, but more importantly, her own country to have its financial system collapse.

America post 2008 is evidence that the pain can be prolonged and will not results in the end of the world. Just a longer recession, with multiple dips back from recovery until fundamental debt problems are taken care of.

I think I post this question for Belguy and others earlier in this thread. What is the evidence that the mess in Europe is unsolvable? Opinion of journalists?


----------



## fatcat

Sampson said:


> No doubt, but there is no reason to think that deleveraging is not working, nor that it will not be successful. Many places in the World have been in prolonged recession but its really not as bad as 2008.
> 
> Think back, for some reason our memories are so short. The World Financial markets were about to collapse. Everyone was going to go under, well most American financial institutions. We aren't anywhere near that sort of mess now. Europe, and Germany, if pressed to action, will have to use some of the techniques the american fed has been using. Although hard-lined, I doubt Chancellor Merkel will allow the EU, but more importantly, her own country to have its financial system collapse.
> 
> America post 2008 is evidence that the pain can be prolonged and will not results in the end of the world. Just a longer recession, with multiple dips back from recovery until fundamental debt problems are taken care of.
> 
> I think I post this question for Belguy and others earlier in this thread. What is the evidence that the mess in Europe is unsolvable? Opinion of journalists?


i listen to bloomberg a lot because they have the best array of money managers from around the world ... certainly there are those that think the problem is manageable but a whole whack of others just are very nervous about the ability of the europeans to pull together and unwind this thing ... so no, these aren't journalists, they are portfolio managers ... and they aren't saying that the problem is unsolvable, only that they think there is a very good chance that it won't get solved


----------



## Sampson

Portfolio managers are not central economists. If that were the case, Ben Bernanke would be a rich hedge fund manager.

Analyzing a companies finances vs. methods of resolving a country's management of spending, debt, imports and exports are very different beasts.

Most of the links posted in this thread only show snippets of what a portfolio manager says during an interview. Why would a portfolio manager speak their true mind anyway?

Again, evidence? Heresay is not an acceptable form of evidence in our judicial system, nor in our use of the scientific method of acquiring knowledge.


----------



## Sampson

I'm not an economist either, but why isn't Germany able to send money for bailouts, accept the creation of Euro bonds, and take a hit to their still growing economy? Seems like there is still lots of room for them to manoeuvre.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Sampson said:


> I'm not an economist either, but why isn't Germany able to send money for bailouts, accept the creation of Euro bonds, and take a hit to their still growing economy? Seems like there is still lots of room for them to manoeuvre.


There isn't.
Why should the German tax payer have to pay for all this nonsense.
Even if they did, what do you expect will change?
Will Greece become a thundering industrial economy?
Will the Spaniards abandon their social welfarist economy and become an economic power like it was 500 years ago?
Nothing will change.

Germany has to strike a fine balance between a devalued Euro (which they managed to get right now for no fault of theirs), and a global demand destruction caused by them not bailing out their poorer neighbors.


----------



## Sampson

I don't Germans should, only that they will if it means less pain for their economy - and a failed EU, not consumers for their products etc. will probably be more painful.

I just think there is more give possible that can be used to avert complete disaster. They have been skirting along for a while. No clear indication which way it is going though. Not that I've seen, nor that has been presented here.


----------



## avrex

scomac said:


> [A well written post, upthread]


Nice post, scomac.
Many points for us to contemplate.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Things are working great for Germany right now? Why would they offer help for their Euro companions? The Euro is falling, which is greatly helping their exports and everyone wants to buy German debt, instead of any other Euro nation, thereby making it way cheaper for them to borrow. So by screwing over the rest of Europe and holding the line, they are making things much better for themselves.


----------



## fatcat

sampson, bloomberg has a great interview with james bullard who is a member of the fed ... anyway, not my point, it is my understanding that germany has just come out of period of austerity and belt tightening that is responsible for their economic ascendence ... they are now being asked to hand over their hard-earned money to people (greeks, spaniards, italians) who themselves are saying "we don't want to do what you did" i.e. go through austerity ... the german population are rightly furious ... what if canada was forced to hand over 100 billion to the usa to help fund their deficit, how would we feel ? ... there is a lot of anger in europe right now and giant game of chicken being played ... we all know that sometimes, when you play chicken, the car really does go over the cliff


----------



## PuckiTwo

fatcat said:


> it is my understanding that germany has just come out of period of austerity and belt tightening that is responsible for their economic ascendence ... they are now being asked to hand over their hard-earned money to people (greeks, spaniards, italians) who themselves are saying "we don't want to do what you did" i.e. go through austerity ... the german population are rightly furious ... what if canada was forced to hand over 100 billion to the usa to help fund their deficit, how would we feel ? ...


Well spoken! However, Germany got a lot of help by the Western allies to get on its feet again after WWII. German did work hard to get there where it is now but the help they got in post-war calls also for some openess to solve the present financial situation their neighbours are in. "One hand washes the other". One the other hand Merkel's hands are somewhat tied to make commitments as the introduction of Eurobonds require constitutional changes in Germany which are quite difficult to push through.


----------



## Sampson

I'm not sure I'm arguing with any of your points.

Germany is in decent shape currently, how else would you explain real organic growth in the economy. Yes, I agree it is due to a devalued Euro - relative to where a deutsche mark would be valued and this fact has played a significant role in their economies present 'prosperity' (relative to other EU members).

And I also agree with you fatcat - that handing over money to bailout countries with citizens of different nationalities, values etc is the basis of the issue. Within Canada, we could only compare it to handing money over to bail out provinces if they had separated. Even though our economy is so closely tied to that in the USA, we don't have nearly the same intermingling that occurs among EU partners.

My point is only this, if the Germans begin to see their own ship sinking, they will be forced to act. Of course it makes sense to hold off as long as possible, and they have been and will continue to do so.

The real question is when they do act, will it be too late? And what does too late mean. I just suppose there isn't enough evidence to think that this damage could be as severe as the potential brink we were facing in 2008.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I don't understand why Frau Merkel should be vilified for Germany's position.
Where is Herr Kohl?
Where are the visionaries and architects behind the Maastricht Treaty?
Why don't we ask them : _please, sir, can you explain why we are in this situation_?
And : _just what were you thinking?_

The peripheral countries lied and cheated (with the help of global investment banks) to make their way into the monetary union.
Because of their reduced borrowing costs, they spent money like drunken sailors on their socialist welfare state.
They flouted all the rules and constraints of the treaty.
Countries like Greece and Portugal under-reported their deficits and off balance sheet liabilities year after year.
How is any of this Germany's fault?

P.S. if you ask me, Frau Merkel deserves the Nobel Prize. If an upstart like Barack Obama can be awarded the Nobel prize even before taking the official oath, why not Merkel?
After all, her record is far better than Obama's.


----------



## Belguy

Merkel will never give in under her watch. We are five years into a lost decade for the stock indexes which will, at best, grind sideways for at least the next five years or, at worst, go into a steep dive going forward.

Is the stock market any place to park your hard-earned savings with a hope to grow them when facing this kind of a scenario?

Merkel will decide the quality of our retirement and, as it stands, there is scant evidence that she has our portfolios in mind when making her decisions.

---Europe and the lost decade!!


----------



## HaroldCrump

Merkel is not deciding the fate of your retirement any more than George Papandreou did, or Silvio Berlusconi did.
Perhaps we should go back and blame Eisenhower for the Normandy Landing.
Or all the way back to Julius Ceaser for invading Germania in 55 BC.


----------



## humble_pie

Alice & the Froggy Footman were conferring in low voices.

EE needs to stop tinking of imself all ze time, said the Footman. Zis sheet about madame merkelle paying scant attention to izz retirement, c'est pas normale.

i know, murmured Alice. I keep trying to get him to understand that the quality of his retirement is determined right here at this tea table, right this minute. The sunshine in the apple trees the daisies in the orchard meadow the sheep grazing by the gate the climbing roses & the columbines ...

ow about i it im on ze edd avec toutes mes forces, wit zis silver platter, said the Footman.

sort of a shock treatment ? asked Alice.

correcte. Like when i it my edd on ze diving board, usually i perform better par la suite.

i guess it's the only alternative we have, since we couldn't get the moderators to ban him as a shock treatment, said Alice. But i don't want you to bash him with that enormous silver sandwich tray. How about this teeny butter dish.

bof c'est trop petit pour le job, je pense. L'idéale, izz zat ee should nearly concuss.

Alice sighed & shook her head & tucked the dormouse into the front pocket of her hoodie, rocking the little creature to sleep.

i'm sorry, i can't go through with this, she said to the Froggy Footman. Because all in our own way, you see, we really do love the Dormouse.


----------



## Sampson

"Balotelli... a bit crazy, but he's a nice guy".
Wow T.Gal!
Stop trading and start betting on one of our member's site. Future spots bookie in our midst?


----------



## HaroldCrump

and oh, BTW, I am sure Frau Merkel is just a teeny, tiny bit more concerned about the retirement of the German citizens, than ours.
You know, the same ones that elected her Chancellor.

I don't believe the German tax-payers are willing to work until 78, while the rest of Europe retires at 52 - using *their* hard earned bailout money.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sampson said:


> "Balotelli... a bit crazy, but he's a nice guy".
> Wow T.Gal! Stop trading and start betting on one of our member's site. Future spots bookie in our midst?


LOL, 5 out of 6 picks now. :tongue-new: 

I'll give your suggestion some thought, if I get the next one right. :biggrin:

So now that both your teams are out, who are you rooting for? I pick Italy since Mario Balotelli scored not one, but two goals in the 1st half, and against Germany, too, WOW!

Now it's not only Belguy crying, but aussi 'madame merkelle'. :highly_amused:


----------



## Sampson

It's official.
_Germany *KICKED OUT* of the EU._

In a display to demonstrate they are willing to "abandon their social wefarist economy and become an economic power like it was 500 years ago"...

Spain.

Smart money would bet against me.


----------



## kcowan

hp
That sheds a whole new meaning on "handing the solution to him on a sliver platter" - well done!

Someone should hand it to him...


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> Merkel will decide the quality of our retirement and, as it stands, there is scant evidence that she has our portfolios in mind when making her decisions.


That's why I didn't vote for her in the last election.
Damned Merkel! You deserve to be vilified.

Why aren't you think about me, the poor Canadian, and why aren't you thinking about my portfolio? All the policies you could enact, all the decisions you could make to make my money work for me.


----------



## fatcat

HaroldCrump said:


> and oh, BTW, I am sure Frau Merkel is just a teeny, tiny bit more concerned about the retirement of the German citizens, than ours.
> You know, the same ones that elected her Chancellor.
> 
> *I don't believe the German tax-payers are willing to work until 78, while the rest of Europe retires at 52 - using *their* hard earned bailout money.*


brilliant harold and there's the rub


----------



## Cal

Belguy said:


> Merkel will never give in under her watch. We are five years into a lost decade for the stock indexes which will, at best, grind sideways for at least the next five years or, at worst, go into a steep dive going forward.
> 
> Is the stock market any place to park your hard-earned savings with a hope to grow them when facing this kind of a scenario?
> 
> Merkel will decide the quality of our retirement and, as it stands, there is scant evidence that she has our portfolios in mind when making her decisions.
> 
> ---Europe and the lost decade!!


Seeing as you have a tendency to quote famous investors....wasn't it Buffett that said a siedways market is best to invest in. It is somewhat predicatable. You can't look at that kind of a market for growth though can you. Harvesting capital gains, buying low, selling high, and invsting for income are the way to go in a sideways market.

If you think that Merkel is going to make the Euro pro Germany in regards to investing, then invest in some German companies. 

Harold makes a great point in regards to the Germans bailing everyone out, I don't think they should let the other countries off easy, retiring early with their pensions. Some of the Greek pensions are financially ludicris. Each country will need to pull their own weight.

I had a greek patient in the other day, and he said that everyone there knows that massive cuts are needed, it's just that nobody wants it to be them. Which I am sure is human nature.


----------



## Belguy

The EU leaders have just attended their 20th summit since the crisis began and this time they were expected to come up with something substantive. However, since the problem is unsolvable, they have not and we are one step closer to the abyss.

All that I am saying is that it seems strange to have the future of one's retirement funds placed at the whim of a foreign leader who of course has her own future and the fortunes of her electorate at heart first and foremost.

In this globalized economy, even some crisis in Swaziland will cause world markets to tank.

This is not your father's stock market.


----------



## Miser

Belguy said:


> The EU leaders have just attended their 20th summit since the crisis began and this time they were expected to come up with something substantive. However, since the problem is unsolvable, they have not and we are one step closer to the abyss.
> 
> All that I am saying is that it seems strange to have the future of one's retirement funds placed at the whim of a foreign leader who of course has her own future and the fortunes of her electorate at heart first and foremost.
> 
> In this globalized economy, even some crisis in Swaziland will cause world markets to tank.
> 
> This is not your father's stock market.


As Hollande sauce would say....Touche!


----------



## riseofamillionaire

Belguy said:


> The EU leaders have just attended their 20th summit since the crisis began and this time they were expected to come up with something substantive. However, since the problem is unsolvable, they have not and we are one step closer to the abyss.
> 
> All that I am saying is that it seems strange to have the future of one's retirement funds placed at the whim of a foreign leader who of course has her own future and the fortunes of her electorate at heart first and foremost.
> 
> In this globalized economy, even some crisis in Swaziland will cause world markets to tank.
> 
> This is not your father's stock market.


Strong bias to negativity and pessimism.


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> This is not your father's stock market.


Thank goodness.

Apparently that stock market was built on debt. Hopefully we can come out of this with real organic growth.


----------



## Miser

Sampson said:


> Thank goodness.
> 
> Apparently that stock market was built on debt. Hopefully we can come out of this with real organic growth.


With all due respect.....You actually think this market is not manipulated by debt????
Completely!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Sampson

It will fall until the World debt problems improve.

Then we have room for real growth. I'm not thinking about now, I'm thinking about the future. That's why I invest in equities, for the long run.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Belguy said:


> All that I am saying is that it seems strange to have the future of one's retirement funds placed at the whim of a foreign leader who of course has her own future and the fortunes of her electorate at heart first and foremost.


So don't we elect our leaders ideally to do what's best for us? Shouldn't Merkel do what's best for Germany and not your stock portfolio? Or has she got her priorities wrong now??


----------



## Eclectic12

Belguy said:


> ...
> All that I am saying is that it seems strange to have the future of one's retirement funds placed at the whim of a foreign leader who of course has her own future and the fortunes of her electorate at heart first and foremost.
> 
> In this globalized economy, even some crisis in Swaziland will cause world markets to tank.
> 
> This is not your father's stock market.


I can see how a global economy is going to influence markets but one's choices determine how much of an influence it has. 

As for foreign politicians decisions - would you prefer they ignore the threats to their country so that nothing changes and the downward spiral accelerates? Ignoring the issues is at best a short term fix that would likely ensure all of the EU goes bankrupt. In that case, the inevitable crash would likely be far worse, making today's drops look like "the good old days".


As for volatility, this is why I've been trading volatility in shares such as POT for a $3 to $9 gain at time and am learning about options.

I'm also glad it's not my father's stock market as that would mean only full service brokers exist at $100+ a trade. Then too, I'd have to drop by the broker's office to watch the ticker for current share prices.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

Vitalogy80 said:


> So don't we elect our leaders ideally to do what's best for us? Shouldn't Merkel do what's best for Germany and not your stock portfolio? Or has she got her priorities wrong now??


*smacks own forehead* -- that's what I did wrong in the last election! :biggrin:

I voted based on Canadian issues instead of the Canadian politicians who wanted to do what's best for the Greek and Spain stock markets ... :rolleyes2:


I'm sure if the people get together now, there will be a "bailout Europe" party to vote for in the next Canadian election.

Cheers


----------



## scomac

I think Merkel is nuts! She seems quite content to drive the Euro bus over the cliff all in the name of prudent responsibility or some such other double talk. If the Euro goes down, Germany will suffer and they will suffer more than most. How is it possible? Quite simply, they have been the largest beneficiary of the open access to markets and undervalued currency of any of the Euro zone members. You could argue that the Germans have basically put a very large contingent of southern tier workers out of jobs with their productivity and the subsidization of a single currency. Just how many Audis, Beemers and Mercedes do you think they will sell when they cost 50% more priced in Deutsche Marks versus Euros? If you are going to enjoy the benefits of a union, no matter how loose, you had better be prepared to accept responsibility to protect the weaker members, not throw them under the bus. I suppose we shouldn't be surprised; history shows that whenever there is chaos on _The Continent_, more often than not Germany has been at the centre of it.


----------



## mrPPincer

scomac said:


> ... If the Euro goes down, Germany will suffer and they will suffer more than most. How is it possible? Quite simply, they have been the largest beneficiary of the open access to markets and undervalued currency of any of the Euro zone members. You could argue that the Germans have basically put a very large contingent of southern tier workers out of jobs with their productivity and the subsidization of a single currency. Just how many Audis, Beemers and Mercedes do you think they will sell when they cost 50% more priced in Deutsche Marks versus Euros? If you are going to enjoy the benefits of a union, no matter how loose, you had better be prepared to accept responsibility to protect the weaker members, not throw them under the bus. ...


Well said! That's a part of it that I think a lot of people just don't get.


----------



## Eclectic12

scomac said:


> I think Merkel is nuts!
> 
> She seems quite content to drive the Euro bus over the cliff all in the name of prudent responsibility or some such other double talk. ...
> 
> 
> Just how many Audis, Beemers and Mercedes do you think they will sell when they cost 50% more priced in Deutsche Marks versus Euros? ...
> 
> 
> I suppose we shouldn't be surprised; history shows that whenever there is chaos on _The Continent_, more often than not Germany has been at the centre of it.


So what's your recommended solution? 
Hand over German money without restriction until there is nothing left in the pot to cushion anything?


... and how many products will Germany be able to sell when no one will want to use a Deutsche Mark or Euro as everyone is on the same page and bankrupt?


As for Germany being at the centre of the chaos - I thought it was the Greek/Spanish etc. over-spending that was the centre. With the over-spending and potential bankruptcy, bailouts plus German policy would be irrelevant.


Cheers


----------



## HaroldCrump

Before you guys hang Germany out to dry, try and understand the German psyche.
Germany has always been big on integration, cooperation, and the "united we stand approach".
Going back to the days of Otto Bismarck.
Germany has always wanted a united Europe.
Not united politically or culturally, but economically via trade and cooperations.

Add to that their guilt conscience of having perpetuated two world wars (esp. the 2nd one that unleashed untold horrors) and their desire to stand by their less fortunate neighbors.

That is what has led them, time and again, to bring Europe closer.
That is what led Helmut Kohl against his better judgement to do the common market thing, followed by the full European Union, and finally the monetary union via the Euro.

Accusing Germany of breaking up Europe is a lack of understanding about the fundamental underpinnings of Europe.

Economically speaking, Germany has always had a strong industrial base, again, going back to the 1800s.
Germany does not need the unproductive, lazy, slacking workers from Greece and Spain.
Germany does not need a cheap trashy currency.
They were still an industrial power when they had the Mark.
They had one of the highest standards of living this side of the Iron Curtain.
Sure, the Marshall Plan helped, but it repaired what had been damaged, rather than build from scratch.

If the European Union were to break up tomorrow, which country would you bet on to emerge from the crisis, stronger than ever?

It is true that if that scenario came to pass, Germany will suffer.
But not for long.
They have the ability to emerge from it.


----------



## kcowan

Why is Merkell against the issuance of Eurobonds rather than country bonds?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Very interesting and spot-on comments by some of you, but I'm just in the mood for European soccer right now.  










Will Belguy appear today that it's a green day?


----------



## scomac

Eclectic12 said:


> So what's your recommended solution?
> Hand over German money without restriction until there is nothing left in the pot to cushion anything?


There has to be some sort of compromise that everyone can live with. Compromise, is not part of Merkel's vocabulary. The only thing she seems to understand is austerity. What she is attempting to force down the throats of the weaker countries is doomed for failure. You can't honestly expect them to willingly sign up to have their respective economies destroyed.

Euro bonds would help in the interim as it would stabilize funding costs for the weaker countries and allow them the opportunity to reform for a more workable long-term solution.




> ... and how many products will Germany be able to sell when no one will want to use a Deutsche Mark or Euro as everyone is on the same page and bankrupt?


It sounds to me as though you have made your mind up that not only is the problem unsolvable, it isn't worth saving. Just blow it up and let each state go its own way. I happen to believe that would be a big step backwards despite all the pitfalls that must be solved before moving forward. But, yours is a convenient position that hardliners are taking.




> As for Germany being at the centre of the chaos - I thought it was the Greek/Spanish etc. over-spending that was the centre. With the over-spending and potential bankruptcy, bailouts plus German policy would be irrelevant.


You're right, if the problem wasn't there, what Germany decides to do is largely irrelevant. But, that doesn't give Germany licence to push their weaker sisters over the cliff when they find themselves standing at the abyss. Where do you stop? Sacrifice Greece? Portugal? Spain? How about Italy? Maybe France? That has been tried before. :distress:


----------



## fatcat

scomac said:


> I think Merkel is nuts! She seems quite content to drive the Euro bus over the cliff all in the name of prudent responsibility or some such other double talk. If the Euro goes down, Germany will suffer and they will suffer more than most. How is it possible? Quite simply, they have been the largest beneficiary of the open access to markets and undervalued currency of any of the Euro zone members. You could argue that the Germans have basically put a very large contingent of southern tier workers out of jobs with their productivity and the subsidization of a single currency. Just how many Audis, Beemers and Mercedes do you think they will sell when they cost 50% more priced in Deutsche Marks versus Euros? If you are going to enjoy the benefits of a union, no matter how loose, you had better be prepared to accept responsibility to protect the weaker members, not throw them under the bus. I suppose we shouldn't be surprised; history shows that whenever there is chaos on _The Continent_, more often than not Germany has been at the centre of it.


at first i thought you were kidding and then i realized "this guy is serious" ... 

i especially like the line about all the hard-working germans putting the greeks out of work ... news flash my friend, the greeks were never in jobs to be put out of, unless you consider selling olive oil and feta cheese to the italians jobs

you have somehow managed to blame the germans for the greeks unwillingness to pay taxes and desire to retire at 50 ??? ... 

i agree that if the euro goes down, germany will suffer, considerably, but that doesn't mean i am blind to the plight of a people (the germans) who themselves went through austerity, put their house in order and now are expected to hand their hard earned money over to people who want nothing to do with austerity !! ....

i don't doubt that the greeks, like most people, get out of bed and put in a hard days work and i tend to blame their incompetent and corrupt political class (and they do have something like a political aristocracy), i am sympathetic to the shock this will cause the average working greek, very much so but to lay blame on the germans is just going a little too far


----------



## HaroldCrump

scomac said:


> You can't honestly expect them to willingly sign up to have their respective economies destroyed.


These "sisters" did not show the same unwillingness when they lied, cheated, and cooked their books to make their way into the common currency.
The entry criteria into the common currency was pretty well defined.
What was perhaps not as well defined was that potential members were not allowed to lie and cheat their way in.



> Euro bonds would help in the interim as it would stabilize funding costs for the weaker countries and allow them the opportunity to reform for a more workable long-term solution.


If only these countries were as upright, sincere and dependable as you seem to believe.
The only thing Euro bonds will do is give them carte blanche to keep borrowing more money to fund their out of control budgets.
There will not be any reform, unless _they _want it.
Euro bonds will postpone the problem 3 years or so down the road.


----------



## humble_pie

scomac said:


> ... You could argue that the Germans have basically put a very large contingent of southern tier workers out of jobs with their productivity and the subsidization of a single currency.



i'm lost. Have working hard & being productive become sins now ?


----------



## scomac

fatcat said:


> at first i thought you were kidding and then i realized "this guy is serious" ...


Deadly serious.



> i especially like the line about all the hard-working germans putting the greeks out of work ... news flash my friend, the greeks were never in jobs to be put out of, unless you consider selling olive oil and feta cheese to the italians jobs


It's not just the Greek; it's Italians and Spaniards too and many others I suspect. And all of those folks don't have gov't jobs either, many worked in manufacturing. They just couldn't quite compete with German industry when they are dealing in the same currency.



> you have somehow managed to blame the germans for the greeks unwillingness to pay taxes and desire to retire at 50 ??? ...


Not at all. You're missing my point completely. All the commentators have gone on about how cheap credit and running up huge debts has been the legacy of the Euro for the southern countries. No one talks about how unfettered access to markets and an undervalued currency has been a huge windfall for Germany in terms of exports. Germany has benefited every bit as much from this experiment as the ones that are in trouble. It just came on the revenue side rather than the expenditure side. 



> i agree that if the euro goes down, germany will suffer, considerably, but that doesn't mean i am blind to the plight of a people (the germans) who themselves went through austerity, put their house in order and now are expected to hand their hard earned money over to people who want nothing to do with austerity !! ....


During the Great Depression, the UK economy contracted by 10%. Since 2008, the Greek economy has contracted by nearly 25%. When you are in that sort of deflationary spiral, you are suffering greatly. Now they are being told they must suffer more by means of austerity. They don't have a say in the matter unless they opt out. But, this is the price that Germany (and others) are willing to extract in order to save the Euro. There's no helping hand here, just punishment. I think the Greek people understand quite well about austerity and suffering -- they're living it. 



> i don't doubt that the greeks, like most people, get out of bed and put in a hard days work and i tend to blame their incompetent and corrupt political class (and they do have something like a political aristocracy), i am sympathetic to the shock this will cause the average working greek, very much so but to lay blame on the germans is just going a little too far


I'm not blaming the Germans for the Greek problem, that's silly. My problem is the way in which they are reacting to the problem. What it comes down to is they want the benefit of the Euro, but they don't really want to pay for it by finding a workable solution. It's kind of a my way or the highway attitude that doesn't bode well for other Euro countries that are facing debt issues.


----------



## scomac

humble_pie said:


> i'm lost. Have working hard & being productive become sins now ?


Now you're being ridiculous.


----------



## Belguy

Merkel blinked!! Hence we have another short term rally on the markets which have typically lasted a day, or part of a day, of late. However, it is only short term action albeit more than was expected. What is required is a long term fix which could take a matter of years to implement and what havoc will the European mess play on the markets in the meantime--a meantime that could last for several more years!!

The crisis is by no means over.


----------



## HaroldCrump

scomac said:


> Now they are being told they must suffer more by means of austerity. They don't have a say in the matter unless they opt out.


They have shown zero, zip willingness and motivation to change things.
Other than rioting on the streets, smashing up govt. offices and cars, what exactly have they done?

The Greek situation is nothing unprecedented, nothing new.
It has happened scores of times before just within the last 3 - 4 decades.
Many countries have gone through such processes.
Latin and South American countries like Argentina went through complete bankruptcy and managed to revive their economies.
China has managed to transform its economy from a backward agrarian economy into the #2 economy within a matter of 3 decades, and is now being looked upon to save everyone.
India went through something similar to the Greek situation back in the late 1980s.
They mortgaged all their gold, floated their currency, and undertook monetary and fiscal reforms to claw their way back.

You may say that Greece has neither the population strength of China and India, nor the resources or industry to undertake any of this.
True, but then perhaps they should never have been part of the Euro.
But unless they make fundamental changes, they are doomed to either being a welfare supported state forever or be kicked out of the Euro and left to fend for themselves.

Seems to be that the only option palatable to Greece is being on German welfare forever.


----------



## humble_pie

scomac said:


> Now you're being ridiculous.


mein führer


----------



## Sampson

scomac said:


> It's not just the Greek; it's Italians and Spaniards too and many others I suspect.


Northern Italians are among the most industrial and productive individuals in Europe.

I think there are far too many generalizations about 'peoples' here and not enough focus on the governements that have been running these countries. Its not like people in Greece live ridiculously extravagant life-styles that need to be supported by employment rates about 90%.

Harold is on to something. Each nation must evaluate their own interests first, it's just that sometimes this actually means to cooperate and help each other.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Lingua Italiana o Spagnola è più musicale IMHO!


----------



## Sampson

scomacie said:


> Now you're being ridiculous.





humble_pie said:


> mein führer


To accuse humble of being ridiculous is like accusing Alice of taking drugs.


----------



## Sampson

Toronto.gal said:


> Very interesting and spot-on comments by some of you, but I'm just in the mood for European soccer right now.


It is very clear that European polices actually ARE decided on the pitch. Now what will Mario Monti ask of Mariano Rajoy when Italy wins on Sunday?

Belguy is onto something. These Euro leaders are all colluding.

We on this forum bet on stocks, some bet on poker, T.Gal and myself on sports. These leaders *USE* sports to decide the fate of the free-World. If Die Mannschaft had not lost yestery, do you really think Merkel would have taken this softer approach?


----------



## Belguy

It's not so much that most Europeans are lazy, it's just that they are used to a socialist lifestyle that they can no longer afford and are now looking for the more industrious Germans to bail them out and prop them up so that they can continue that lifestyle.

The current mess can only be resolved by pooling Europe's collective debt, but, if I were a German, it would be easy to understand why this solution would not be all that palatable. After all, why would I want to provide financial support someone else's lifestyle? And yet, this is the only ultimate solution that would work and so how do we get there from here?

The lesson here seems to be that you cannot have a fiscal union without a political union where various lifestyles can be brought together in a common way.

This will not be easy to resolve and it will take considerable time if the euro zone is to survive. It will be interesting to watch it play out over the coming years.


----------



## Argonaut

I was gonna sell puts yesterday, but the football game caught my attention instead. And now today the market is up too much to sell puts. Europeans fault in either case. Boo.


----------



## Sampson

I now understand.
Its like when Alberta bails out Ontario. :tongue-new:

(quietly puts on flak jacket)


----------



## Eclectic12

scomac said:


> ... What she is attempting to force down the throats of the weaker countries is doomed for failure. You can't honestly expect them to willingly sign up to have their respective economies destroyed ...
> 
> It sounds to me as though you have made your mind up that not only is the problem unsolvable, it isn't worth saving. ...
> 
> You're right, if the problem wasn't there, what Germany decides to do is largely irrelevant. But, that doesn't give Germany licence to push ...


If the country *is* bankrupt, then one's economy is already destroyed (or only a few steps away from), is it not? 


The only part I've made my mind about is that throwing money at the problem without changing the policies/decisions that created/sustain the problem is a stopgap measure that won't change anything long term. 

To me, it sounds like the teenager who makes $100, spends $300, asks their sibling for $200 "just this once" and does not see that without significant changes, next month is going to be the same as this month. 


So in other words, the weaker members who spent without a care get to push around the more responsible members as "hey, it's family"?


Cheers


----------



## mrPPincer

Hopefully without sounding too much like a broken record I'm gonna try to clarify my thoughts on this, dunno if it will come across as clear as scomac's comment did but I'll give it a shot.

From upthread:


mrPPincer said:


> The reason they're running into trouble is because they have created a monetary union without creating any kind of fiscal union yet.


My attempt at clarification of this opinion...

They chose to have a single currency which brings some similar benefits to all the EU members.
As it is set up now however there is one element which is a benefit to only the stronger countries and a millstone around the necks of the weaker countries.

The cost of borrowing money becomes out of whack with what the cost should be if they where going it alone.
The weakest countries have to pay higher interest, as they should if they are at a greater risk of default, but in ordinary circumstances, this cost would be offset somewhat by an inflated currency.

So because they are tied to the common currency, without yet some kind of provision for common bonds, they have that extra factor which drags them down doubly, and which unless the whole setup if fixed somehow, they probably have no hope of ever getting out of, (especially with the the third factor grinding down their economies, austerity).

As scomac pointed out in his post earlier today, the opposite is true for the stronger economies, like germany.
They have an unfair advantage which bouys them up above the playing field; they get to borrow money at lower rates (which, again, is fair), but get to pay their debt on in devalued currency versus what they should be paying it if the playing field was even.

I am reminded of an aquarium that a friend of mine had.
First there where 4 piranha, then weeks later, 3 slightly larger piranha, then 2 big ones, (one looking quite nervous), then one massive and bored looking piranha.

I have no doubt that a solution will eventually be found to the Euro mess, but unless it's fixed, I think the piranha metaphor is the way things go.

I don't think there's a need to cast blame or accusations at any of the EU nations, it is what what it is and they're stuck in the system they have until they fix it.

As to the comments about lifestyle, what is meant by that?
There's a big difference between lifestyle and standard of living.

I live quite a laid back lifestyle now, I've worked hard to get to this point, and chose to live frugally rather than work myself to an early grave. (I take nothing from the state btw, besides tax refunds, roads etc., plus the odd time need to get sewed up via our free healthcare).
I suspect at least a few of those "lazy" southern country EU citizens are in the same boat as me.

Anyways, I've rambled, sorry everyone, for the excessively long post.


----------



## londoncalling

mrPPincer said:


> I suspect at least a few of those "lazy" southern country EU citizens are in the same boat as me.


Do you also have a history of corrupt economic practices filled with tax evasion? :biggrin:


----------



## mrPPincer

I'm not fully aware of any of the "corrupt economic practices" going on out there, possibly because I don't have tv, but I like everybody, do my best to avoid taxes within the law to the best of my ability, although I hate doing taxes, and usually file late, so I do end up giving them some extra most of the time 
Back on topic, on a positive note, europe markets were up significantly friday, lets hope this continues


----------



## Belguy

Well, we have made it to the half way mark in another year of The Great Recession with the TSX down 3 per cent on the year to date and the S&P up a respectable 8.31%.

Here's looking forward to another exciting six months!!:eek2::eek2::eek2::eek2:


----------



## sags

Apparently it has all been solved. Merkel caved and the Germans will re-capitalize Spanish and Greek banks.

All that worry over nothing.................


----------



## blin10

germany is not stupid, they must of run some numbers and saw this is the way to go.... it is what it is


----------



## sags

Oh wait.............one bank crisis avoided...........and another one raises it's ugly head.

Manipulation and fraud...........and it involves a lot of banks, including Barlays, Lloyds of London, HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS, Citibank and perhaps J.P. Morgan and who knows.

Barclay's already agreed to $500,000,000 in fines............so it is big..............monstrously big.

Would anyone be surprised that yet again.......banks CEO and upper management have fattened their own wallets through fraud and theft of the citizens?

http://www.canada.com/Fisher+Britai...anada.com+National+News)&utm_content=My+Yahoo

http://www.rollingstone.com/politic...k-in-the-libor-banking-investigation-20120628

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...d-Lloyds-drawn-into-rate-rigging-scandal.html


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sampson said:


> Spain.


Mama mia, la poor bella Italia got spanked by the Spaniards. 

After the Italians defeated the heavily favoured German team 2-0 in the semi-finals, I had given Italy the edge in the confidence [mental] department, but I had forgotten how much the Spaniards would have wanted to make this a 3rd consecutive major tournament win to make history, and did they ever! A majestic victory for Spain & you called it Sampson! :triumphant:

Spanish newspaper headlines = "We're champions of everything". 

Wonder how long the 'feelgood boost' will last. 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jul/02/spain-euro-2012-economy-boost?newsfeed=true


----------



## Belguy

I still think that some of the recent posts on this thread belong in a sports forum.:rugby::bull_head::topsy_turvy::very_drunk:

Goldman Sachs have just issued their prediction of where the S&P will be at year end and they are saying that it will decline 8 per cent from it's current level.

Also, so you had hoped that things were getting better? Not so fast!!

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/07/02/economists-react-ism-indicates-economy-is-going-nowhere/

According to Pimco, consumer spending by higher income people is now dropping because of increasing uncertainty about the economy and stock market losses.

Also from Pimco, the chance that the U.S. is entering a recession is now approximately 30 per cent and rising.

They state that long term U.S. unemployment is "very worrisome".

----Remember what John McCain is quoted as saying when referring to the economy-- "it's always darkest just before it turns completely black".


----------



## Sampson

Toronto.gal said:


> A majestic victory for Spain & you called it Sampson! :triumphant:


Yeah, I called one game right, 50:50 hey?

Lets go through my picks again.
1. Netherlands (0-3)
2. England (as always, into the quarter finals and everyone has confidence in them... they never win)
3. Portugal (hey, they had a good chance and played a decent game, they could have beaten Spain, Cristiano Ronaldo had at least 3 good chances to end it).
4. Germany (all I can say is wow, unexpected)
5. Spain was a bit of a surprise. They hadn't shown this form at all through the tournament. David Villa is a huge piece of their team, but they managed to show some magic in big part due to Fabregas.

It was an excellent tournament though.

I still think you should moonlight as a bookie though T-Gal.


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> I still think that some of the recent posts on this thread belong in a sports forum.:rugby::bull_head::topsy_turvy::very_drunk:


But I thought we had established that European Union decisions were being made based on the outcome of soccer matches...
why else would Merkel cave-in. The past 2-3 preceding pages were people countering my suggestion that German would have to eventually give a little. And how convenient is it that the aid and support of bail out money was announced immediately after Germany's loss in soccer?

If people can give validity to astrology as a predictor of market performance, why can't World economic decisions be based on soccer?


----------



## Toronto.gal

*Sampson:* we have to promise Belguy that we won't hijack his thread when the London Olympics start later this month [probably the above message was an early/indirect warning]. :biggrin:

You're right, it was an excellent tournament & can't wait now for the Olympics! [The US trials have been pretty exciting to watch].


----------



## Four Pillars

I think this thread has become far more useful since the sports talk started. I vote we turn it into a sports thread.

On that note - anyone watching the Tour de France? I love watching it, even though the flat stages aren't very exciting until the end. The scenery is amazing - check it out just for that. The tour started in Belgium this year and it looks like a very green and pretty country.


----------



## Vitalogy80

They also say it's the darkest before the dawn.


----------



## Belguy

So, what are we more likely to experience going forward--a dawning of a new bull market or complete blackness or something in between?

"Europe's debt crisis slammed into the world's factories last month, with U.S. manufacturing contracting for the first time in nearly three years and Asian countries hit hard by crumbling orders from abroad. Some of the grimmest data released on Monday was from the eurozone. The jobless rate in the currency bloc rose to a new record high in May while factory activity was at it's lowest level since June 2009. Other factory surveys--from the U.S. to China to Brazil--suggested Europe's woes were reverberating throughout the global economy. It's hitting confidence, it is hitting exports and it is probably hitting credit as well as bank lending. The U.S. factory sector was dragged down in June by a plunge in new orders and a sharp drop in exports. This is the biggest sign yet that the U.S. is catching the slowdown that is well underway in Europe and China. Manufacturing activity in Germany and Spain contracted at the fastest pace in almost three years. The latest eurozone data highlights the problems policy-makers face to restore the region's economic forecast. Around 17.56 MILLION people were out of work in the 17-nation eurozone in May or 11.1 per cent of the working population, a new high since euro records began in 1995. Euro zone manufacturers cut staff in June at the fastest rate in two and a half years. Europe's economic ailments, triggered by a festering debt crisis, also left Asian factories reeling in June."

--Toronto Star, July 3, 2012

Europe and the lost decade.


----------



## scomac

Four Pillars said:


> I think this thread has become far more useful since the sports talk started. I vote we turn it into a sports thread.
> 
> On that note - anyone watching the Tour de France? I love watching it, even though the flat stages aren't very exciting until the end. The scenery is amazing - check it out just for that. The tour started in Belgium this year and it looks like a very green and pretty country.


I guess it's just you and me, Mike. The scenery is stunning in HD on a large screen TV! :encouragement: It's a great way to get a sort of video travelogue of the country which can be helpful for those who are thinking about planning a trip to France. The Pyrenees was never an area that entered into my wish list of travel destinations until I saw the stage last year that finished in Lourdes.


----------



## humble_pie

sports it is. Member who starts a thead does not own thread. Off-tracking encouraged esp in summertime. Un virage, selon le tour de france.

from another thread, thrice-banned newbie hits new lunatic high:




> Newton became famous & many apply his concept but they have failed to go just one step further to that of cycles & the day will come when the coach potatoe style investing will fail to work. Like Galileo, great independent thinks like Burguy that understands the truth is his friend will be ridiculed to the highest degree just before the turn takes place.


a group home for nutty cmf members would be excellent idea.


----------



## Four Pillars

scomac said:


> The scenery is stunning in HD on a large screen TV!


Indeed. I don't have HD, but it still looks great. Next week I'll be visiting my parents who have HD and we will be watching the tour on that for sure.



scomac said:


> The Pyrenees was never an area that entered into my wish list of travel destinations until I saw the stage last year that finished in Lourdes.


I had barely heard of the Pyrenees before I started watching the tour. You're right about that Pau-Lordes stage - best stage ever.


----------



## Eder

If you can't make it to the beautiful Pyrenees you can get close by cycling from Radium BC to Castle Junction AB then on to Jasper. Though, of course the bread will suck.


----------



## Four Pillars

Eder said:


> If you can't make it to the beautiful Pyrenees you can get close by cycling from Radium BC to Castle Junction AB then on to Jasper. Though, of course the bread will suck.


But I thought this thread was about Europe? 

That's a great suggestion. Western Canada mountains are just as beautiful as Europe's.


----------



## Eclectic12

mrPPincer said:


> ...
> My attempt at clarification of this opinion...
> 
> They chose to have a single currency which brings some similar benefits to all the EU members.
> As it is set up now however there is one element which is a benefit to only the stronger countries and a millstone around the necks of the weaker countries.
> 
> ... I don't think there's a need to cast blame or accusations at any of the EU nations, it is what what it is and they're stuck in the system they have until they fix it.
> 
> As to the comments about lifestyle, what is meant by that? ...


I believe there are a lot more inequities than you refer too. When I was in the Netherlands just after the euro was implemented, one of the tour group commented to our Dutch hosts "... you must love how much easier one common currency is, with some many working across borders ..". 

The response was "We hate it as the prices we have to pay doubled overnight when the euro was implemented."


As for lifestyles, I'll have to check the rest of the thread but what I've heard about from Europeans is what benefits/restrictions the gov't legislates.

Another comment from the Dutch was that anyone who left a communist country and move to the Netherlands was given an apartment and pension, at the working tax payer's expense. I was amused to hear the comment that " no other country in the world such as Canada would ever do such a crazy thing."

Then too - Sweden is part of the EU. A Swedish colleague was amazed that the US colleagues had only two weeks vacation and the Canadians only three weeks to start. Her comment was "How can you relax in such a short time? We start five weeks on our first job."

Then there's the UK, where when I visited Leistershire, with 306K population (another 441K in the wider urban area, the downtown branch of the Bank of Scotland had dismal hours. As I recall, they opened at 9:30am, closed at 11:30am, re-opened at 1pm and closed for the day at 3:30pm. Wandering around at 5pm, I could see why the Pubs are so important as other than pubs, I saw one variety store and two fish & chip places open - everything else was that was open was a pub.

Cheers


----------



## Belguy

This is a new tactic--collectively hijack a thread and then attempt to justify it.

I think that anyone who deliberately does this should be banished from the forum as it must be breaking some rule.

Also, what is causing the TSX to go stark raving nuts today?:confused2::confused2:


----------



## mrPPincer

Belguy, must be because TSX was closed yesterday.

Eclectic, we had some dutch visitors a couple summers ago, didn't think to ask how they felt about the Euro, but they did mention that they liked to vacation in some of their less well off neighbouring countries where their Euros went twice as far.
Also I get the impression that some of the immigrants to the Netherlands do not always start with the same work ethic that is predominant there, and this is how they come to be looked upon as leechers on the system.


----------



## humble_pie

sports it is. Yesterday in namur, belgium.













svp
banish mee


----------



## donald

Tiger eldrick woods is back!(he won yesterday)speaking of the sports world(yes golf is a sport,lol)love seeing him rise from the ashes after the scandal.3 wins this year and he is back in 1st place in the fedex standings.Can't wait to see what company is going to pick him up(after buick/nke/rolex and accunture pretty much left him)It will be some sort of ''second chance,we all make mistakes'' ad.He is def not as bullet proof anymore and not even close to as cocky-america likes the comeback.(lot of fan support,yesterday)


----------



## webber22

Belguy said:


> I still think that some of the recent posts on this thread belong in a sports forum.:rugby::bull_head::topsy_turvy::very_drunk:


*There were 5 images used in this post*

This could be grounds for a temporary banning if I remember the rules correctly as it indicates some type of high-tech hacking scheme to get past the editor programs limit of 4


----------



## Belguy

The happy face with the half empty glass of beer is a single smiley!!:stupid::monkey::dog::smiley_simmons:

Now, back to the sports report.


----------



## riseofamillionaire

Four Pillars said:


> But I thought this thread was about Europe?
> 
> That's a great suggestion. Western Canada mountains are just as beautiful as Europe's.


Im out of Revelstoke BC. The mountains are insane out here.

But more on topic, do we think this Euro Growth Package is enough to sustain a legit rally? I feel investors have pessimism fatigue at this point - attitudes can change in a heart beat.


----------



## Four Pillars

And where will Parise end up? (hockey for those not in the know). To tie into the Euro theme - will his new contract be bigger than the last Greek bailout? :confused2::confused2:


----------



## Belguy

It's a conspiracy!!:livid::frown-new::chargrined::grumpy:


----------



## Belguy

As an interesting aside, China has experienced 15 years of solid growth but zero growth in it's stock market over that time according to BNN. The BRIC nations are not attractive places to invest in going forward. Better you invest in the so-called 'breakout nations' such as Indonesia, the Phillipines, and Korea to name a few.

Time to invest in the Muslim democracies:

http://breakoutnations.com/

Vancouver house sales dropped 28% last month compared with June 2011 and before the new mortgage rules even kicked in. They take effect on Monday.

Wish us luck tomorrow when the latest job numbers come out!!

When last month's numbers were announced, the Dow dropped 300 points in one day!!


----------



## fatcat

Belguy said:


> As an interesting aside, China has experienced 15 years of solid growth but zero growth in it's stock market over that time according to BNN. The BRIC nations are not attractive places to invest in going forward. Better you invest in the so-called 'breakout nations' such as Indonesia, the Phillipines, and Korea to name a few.
> 
> Time to invest in the Muslim democracies:
> 
> http://breakoutnations.com/
> 
> Vancouver house sales dropped 28% last month compared with June 2011 and before the new mortgage rules even kicked in. They take effect on Monday.
> 
> Wish us luck tomorrow when the latest job numbers come out!!
> 
> *When last month's numbers were announced, the Dow dropped 300 points in one day!!*


the difference is that the last numbers were widely anticipated and massively disappointed ... this time, expectations are pretty low


----------



## Belguy

The BRIC countries are going into a slump. Commodities are not going to do well if the emerging markets slow down. 

Conclusion: Reduce your exposure to the commodity heavy TSX and increase your exposure to the more diversified S&P 500 going forward.


----------



## Sampson

There you go belguy - welcome to the world of tactical asset allocation - or as traditional passive index investors refer to as 'market timers'


----------



## Belguy

The downward spiral continues. Maybe Merkel and some other leaders are wrong and we should be employing more stimulus instead of austerity:

http://www.thestar.com/business/art...n-three-ways-global-leaders-just-don-t-get-it


----------



## Belguy

The U.S. needs to add 5 MILLION jobs in order to achieve full employment.

The current U.S. unemployment rates are: whites: 7.4%, Latinos: 11%, African-Americans: 14.4%

Another U.S. city in economic trouble:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-07-05/scranton-pa-dot-we-dont-have-money-to-pay-workers

Among the Dow leaders today are McDonald's and Wal-mart. A Nasdaq leader is Family Dollar Stores. I believe that this says something about the economy.

Also, Best Buy announced today that it is laying off another 1800 store staff and 600 from it's Geek Squad staff as it struggles to survive. It has not been a good day for geeks!!

The two top performing indexes so far this year are the DAX and the Nasdaq.

While the Nasdaq is down on the day, it's biggest component, Apple, is up.

Overall, the earlier market gains for the week have all been wiped out on today's trading.

Do you know where your money is?


----------



## Belguy

After today's drop, here is how the various markets performed for the past week:

TSX: +0.55%
DOW: -0.84%
Nasdaq: +0.08%
S&P: -0.55%

It could have been worse.


----------



## Cal

1 week, who cares.

Having said that, earnings season kicks off on Monday, and with the weak jobs report today, and with companies already having shed their payroll, the true profitability of some companies could be revealed.


----------



## Belguy

It might not be so great for companies that do any significant portion of their business in Europe.


----------



## Belguy

A half a million manufacturing jobs have been lost in Ontario since 2003--Toronto Sun

When Europe's problems will really begin:

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/07/06/big-fat-greek-debt-spiral-could-swallow-all-of-europe


----------



## Belguy

A time of gloom and doom ahead:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...f-dread-dashes-recovery-hopes/article4398661/

Take a look at these charts:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.ca/2012/07/worlds-grim-economic-growth-prospects.html

:cower::disturbed::concern::dread:


----------



## Belguy

Beware of September!!

http://www.economist.com/blogs/free...rm/email/2012626/nbe/AlphavilleLondon/product


----------



## Belguy

Invest in U.S. large caps but not the multinationals with international exposure:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/global-slump-eroding-us-profits/article4401690/


----------



## webber22

You know that this fall the G&M becomes a pay site like the WSJ. One can only conclude then that the WORLD will end this fall for some posters


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Invest in U.S. large caps but not the multinationals with international exposure:
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/global-slump-eroding-us-profits/article4401690/


This is the most backwards bullfeces I've ever heard. Sorry.

If anyone has half a brain, the multinationals are EXACTLY the companies you want to be investing in. 

Boy... sometimes... :rolleyes2: :stupid:

:biggrin:


----------



## KaeJS

webber22 said:


> You know that this fall the G&M becomes a pay site like the WSJ. One can only conclude then that the WORLD will end this fall for some posters


WHAT?

This is true?

How will I check my stocks while at work?! :eek2: :hopelessness:

The only thing I have access to is basically G&M!


----------



## Belguy

When it becomes a pay site, and I pay my subscription, does that mean that I will be able to access the sit but not be able to cut and paste any articles?

The domestic U.S. market is expected to outperform many international markets and that is why you should consider investing in U.S. large caps that have minimum international exposure.

It makes sense to me but it is only an opinion of which there are no end of on this forum. Approximately 50 per cent of them will prove to be right and the other 50 per cent won't according to the law of averages.

And so, this idea has approximately a 50/50 chance of being right.

Check back in a few years and we'll see how it worked out.:smiley_simmons::bi_polo::topsy_turvy::friendly_wink:


----------



## webber22

Seniors tend to be pretty tight with their wallets, so actually paying a subscription when you can get the same thing somewhere else for free ???
G&M announced it  back in May
There are other sources like Google Finance, Financial Post, Yahoo, Tmx.com, ca.advfn.com to check the Canadian version of news and quotes


----------



## Belguy

I agree. While I will miss reading the G&M, there are many other interesting sites on the web and I will find some alternatives when the time comes.

All good things must come to an end.


----------



## KaeJS

G&M gonna lose a lot of readers....


----------



## avrex

I'm assuming this move does not affect the Globe and Mail's - My Watchlist.

I still want the ability to look up stock data and 'related stories'.
Otherwise, I'll be moving on, as well.


----------



## Cal

^ Same. 

Just to be safe, if you are using Globeinvestor or watchlist, you may want to print out a paper copy prior to their changes. So that you may re enter them into another site or spreadsheet.


----------



## humble_pie

i for one will probably stay & pay. At least, i'm planning to unless the globe announces a truly insane price.

all newspapers are moving to pay models. Major media have already succumbed. Nat Post has begun to convert its family of major city news across canada to paid subscription. Torstar i'm not sure about, but hardly see how it can hold out as free website.

there's a lot to be said for traditionally edited & double-checked references. Without em we'll have nothing but bloggos.


----------



## Belguy

It will be much easier for equity investors to lose money in these markets going forward than it will be to make money.

Andy McCreath, BNN


----------



## humble_pie

i'm starting out small in the pay-for-news biz, just like my great-uncle Conrad did long ago, said the Black Prince.

the Dormouse's tiny nose twitched. How can those vile Europeans stoop to taking away a nice retired senior's free BNN TV, he wept.

we're going to make it so easy, said the Black Prince. We'll have knowledge contests for a free week's subscription. Someone like Dormouse will be able to win every time.

the Cook eyed the Black Prince suspiciously. Weren't you here before, she said. And aren't you scheming to have Dormouse keep right on pumping your newspapers ...

he was here before, said the Cheshire Cat's Grin. Everybody looked up.

he was the Froggy Footman, but that was before Alice kissed him, said the familiar teeth.


----------



## Belguy

:very_drunk::very_drunk::very_drunk::very_drunk:


----------



## Belguy

The troubles in Spain are happening mainly in the plain.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ad-to-street-clashes-in-spain/article4405011/

In the U.S. 39.3% of black youth are currently in between jobs and therefore unemployed.

San Bernardino Calif. is the latest U.S. city to declare bankruptcy because their public service pensions are no longer affordable and therefore forcing city services to be cut. The unemployment rate there is currently running at 16 per cent.

This is considered to be the tip of a very large iceberg with many more U.S. cities to follow.:distress::hopelessness::cower::frown:


----------



## Belguy

Brazil and Korea cut interest rates today. It's a race to the bottom--the so-called 'death spiral'.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...mmunition-to-stimulate-growth/article4414154/

The global economy is doomed:

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-global-perfect-storm


----------



## londoncalling

No emoticons? no fear! :hopelessness::tongue-new::biggrin::cool-new:

not sure if this is a signal to buy, sell or hold...


----------



## Four Pillars

Belguy: Please read
http://lowriefinancial.com/2012-mid...+Diet&utm_campaign=July+Blog&utm_medium=email


----------



## Oldroe

If it's in the news you don't need to be afraid. All this Greece, Spain ect. is priced in. What is not in the news is fear.

This is a buying opportunity. When to buy is the puzzle. Can't see it before Nov. and easily into 2013.


----------



## MoneyGal

Four Pillars said:


> Belguy: Please read
> http://lowriefinancial.com/2012-mid...+Diet&utm_campaign=July+Blog&utm_medium=email


Steve Lowrie is a great guy.


----------



## kcowan

MoneyGal said:


> Steve Lowrie is a great guy.


It sounds like it from his article. He says what many people were telling BG. It seems that the average reader of this forum is more sane than the average investor.


----------



## Belguy

My diversified portfolio of mainly broad-based index products has produced a negative return of -3.1 per cent over the past 15 months. When you consider that I could have achieved a positive return of around 2 per cent just by investing in a HISA, that makes a difference of some 5 per cent.

Such a difference doesn't matter as much to a younger investor with a long time line but is more unsettling to a retired investor with a much shorter time line.

Thus, I feel that it is easier for a younger investor to stay optimistic than for an older investor to reflect the same optimism. I too didn't worry so much about several months of negative returns when I was of the age of some of the optimists on this forum who just feel that down markets like this are nothing more than a good buying opportunity.


----------



## leoc2

Your portfolio is an asset that breaths over time. It grows and it shrinks. What it throws off in interest payments and dividends can hopefully pay the bills so that you are not having to sell off too many assets to make ends meet. Do you look at your home in the same way? My home has dropped in price from February. Should I post on this board telling everyone that my house price is down 3.1% and that an older person like me can't afford a US style real estate depression? Should I sell my home now before things get worse?


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> My diversified portfolio of mainly broad-based index products has produced a negative return of -3.1 per cent over the past 15 months. When you consider that I could have achieved a positive return of around 2 per cent just by investing in a HISA, that makes a difference of some 5 per cent.


Diversification is not about maximizing total returns.

If you are going to cherry pick an investment, you should have put all you money into Apple stock. 15 month return of 86%. You snooze you lose.


----------



## Cal

Similar article to Steve Lowrie's posted above in regards to not listening to the news: http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/it’s-not-the-bear-you-see.htm


----------



## kcowan

Sampson said:


> Diversification is not about maximizing total returns.


Diversification reduces total returns in return for less volatility.


----------



## Sampson

kcowan said:


> Diversification reduces total returns in return for less volatility.


Not necessarily.

You can in fact increase your total returns by taking on additional volatility. Say someone invested only in the TSX via an index fund and in Canadian bonds.
50:50 in XIC:XBB

If you were to diversify by adding VWO, or tilt the CAD equities to small-cap and value stocks, one could conceivably increase portfolio returns. Obviously portfolio beta would increase.


----------



## Belguy

For example, you could, on one hand, just invest in XIU with one result or invest in a combination of XCV and XCS without potentially reducing total returns and even with a potentially better result long term although possibly with added volatility due to the small cap component.


----------



## kcowan

kcowan said:


> Diversification reduces total returns in return for less volatility.





Sampson said:


> You can in fact increase your total returns by taking on additional volatility.


Agreed. That is what we are both saying. It just changes what modificatons you make to your portfolio.


----------



## Belguy

Darkening economic and political clouds on the horizon according to the IMF:

http://business.financialpost.com/2...ds-stronger-monetary-union-to-stem-contagion/


----------



## Belguy

Darkening economic and political clouds on the horizon according to the IMF:

http://business.financialpost.com/2...ds-stronger-monetary-union-to-stem-contagion/


----------



## sags

There is no solution. The central bankers already know it, and the politicians are finally absorbing it.

*U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. S Bernanke Tuesday outlined options to ease policy further in case the flagging economic recovery fails to lower unemployment, including further purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.*

Been there and done that. It had no affect. It will have no affect in the future. Bernanke knows QE3 is more effective as a distant possibility than a reality.

*Against a backdrop of fiscal consolidation, the fund said the “overarching challenge” in Europe is to plan budget cuts without unduly harming economic growth.*

Can't be done. Austerity and economic growth are diametrically opposed to each other. See Greece and Spain.

Many are now settling on the idea that only a huge stimulus of direct spending into troubled economies will give the countries even a hope of success. It would be a faint hope, as the debt piles up, but the only hope they have.

As one economist put it..........at least we could enjoy the next 5 years, before the whole thing collapses.


----------



## HaroldCrump

sags said:


> Austerity and economic growth are diametrically opposed to each other. See Greece and Spain.


Fundamentally not true, but maybe true in cases of countries that are totally addicted to government spending.
When govt. is the largest employer, the largest producer, the largest consumer, and the patriarch of the whole society, well yeah, govt. austerity will substantially reduce GDP.


----------



## Miser

HaroldCrump said:


> Fundamentally not true, but maybe true in cases of countries that are totally addicted to government spending.
> When govt. is the largest employer, the largest producer, the largest consumer, and the patriarch of the whole society, well yeah, govt. austerity will substantially reduce GDP.


What countries are not addicted?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Miser said:


> What countries are not addicted?


Sure, but it is a question of degree.
A country with 10% of GDP coming from public funding will have a lesser impact of austerity compared to a country with 50% of GDP from govt. spending.


----------



## zylon

*When the World Turns the Corner on the Greek Crisis*

*My emphasis in blue.*


> *Q:* Pat, a lot of readers are asking how can the world possibly get over this Greek crisis?
> 
> *Pat McKeough:* Well that question doesn’t really matter—how we will get over the Greek crisis. We just know that we will get over this crisis. Crises come and go and somehow the world always manages to get over them. You could say there have been crises that were exceptions. One was the fall of the Roman Empire, but that took hundreds of years. World War II was another such situation—I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of that.
> 
> I think what you need to be aware of is that the markets turn around before the crisis ends. The markets turn around when people start to see the end of the crisis coming along. You know, the markets basically have been going up since March 2009. In fact, there’ve been a lot of scares and a lot of bad news along the way: we’ve seen some setbacks. But basically it’s been going up. And it could continue like that for some time.
> 
> I think that by the time the Greek crisis seems to have gone away, and Ireland and Italy and Spain are back on their feet, it may turn out that will mark a peak in the market. It may turn out—it often does—that *when everything looks good, that’s the time when you need to worry.*
> 
> Whereas now there’s an awful lot of things to worry about, whether it’s the finances in Europe, or the Iran nuclear testing program, or Syria’s civil war going on, Russia’s resurgence. I think you really have to recognize that a lot of crises that you read about in the media, many people have an interest in portraying them as being much more severe, much more pertinent than they really are. So you really can’t go by media coverage, and you can’t go by extrapolating what might come from one thing to the next to the next. What you’ve really got to do is take a broader view. Say to yourself: is there anything good going on in the world?
> 
> One thing I think people are underestimating is that the availability of energy is going to change a lot in the next few years, thanks to fracking, thanks to advances in oil and gas production. I think some of the bears are talking about oil shortages being worked into various scenarios. But it may well be that we’ve seen the peak of oil for a decade or two, simply because OPEC won’t want to keep prices so high that it speeds up development of new gas sources.
> 
> So I think now is the time to be ready for an upturn, not to be worrying about the roof coming down on your head.
> 
> http://www.tsinetwork.ca/daily/inve...urns-corner-greek-crisispat-mckeough-youtube/





> All of our articles are available for republishing as long as you provide a link back to the original article.


----------



## Assetologist

Thank you for sharing Zylon!


----------



## Causalien

I just want to mention, that in the 2 collapses I've been through now, once we reach a point where everything's rosy and good; Where the skirt length of girls gets shorter and cosmetics sells are at an all time high again and booze/heroine sells reaches a peak. There will be 2 more years of prosperity before any crash brings everything back to earth.

The signs to watch are: increase in sizes of automobiles. Glamour magazines that features the rich and their lifestyle, Exponential rises in prices of a sector. We just had a housing bubble a commodity bubble and I think the next one will be tech based. The media will turn from a eco friendly focus to that of spending and waste. The way to watch this is probably by tracking how many new websites pop up and reaches million daily visitors status and what their focus is on.


----------



## sags

There are a lot of macro issues to consider..........but what is more concerning, is the continual decline of top line revenue by companies. Although the business media often uses the phrase "beat the estimates", it all depends on what the estimates were.

The revenue declines are back to 2008 levels, and some believe show the US is heading for a recession or is already in one.

What makes me wonder is the CNBC gang are usually glass half full types...............and they are expressing concern lately.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48259674


----------



## sags

Not sure I would agree with this paragraph..............

_Whereas now there’s an awful lot of things to worry about, whether it’s the finances in Europe, or the Iran nuclear testing program, or Syria’s civil war going on, Russia’s resurgence. I think you really have to recognize that a lot of crises that you read about in the media, many people have an interest in portraying them as being much more severe, much more pertinent than they really are. So you really can’t go by media coverage, and you can’t go by extrapolating what might come from one thing to the next to the next. What you’ve really got to do is take a broader view. Say to yourself: is there anything good going on in the world?_

I don't think one can simply dismiss the threat to Israel, or the danger of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, as media hype.

The threats are real.............and the consequences could be devastating.


----------



## Sampson

sags said:


> The revenue declines are back to 2008 levels, and some believe show the US is heading for a recession or is already in one.


Examples?

Many of the companies I own or follow have either raised top lines back to pre-2008 levels, or in some instances increase from 2008.


----------



## ddkay

Greece's new coalition government plans to announce new cost-saving steps and is looking for billions of euros in new budget cuts ahead of a meeting later this week with international inspectors, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, _*citing unidentified officials*_. Under the terms of Greece's current aid agreement, the New Democracy-Pasok government must trim about 11.5 billion ($14 billion) from its budget cuts, and the report said it would announce the merger and closure of some 20 state agencies sometime this week. The move would come as representatives from the Troika overseeing Greek aid -- the European Commission , the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank -- are due to visit Athens to assess budget-cutting progress. The report quoted _*an unnamed senior Greek official*_ as saying: "We are going to find all of the cutbacks demanded, or in some cases propose equivalent measures worth more than twice what the Troika is asking."

- Michael Kitchen ; 415-439-6400; [email protected]


----------



## Miser




----------



## Belguy

Moodys issues negative rating on Germany etc.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ermany-netherlands-luxembourg/article4436544/

The plot thickens.:cower::frown::dispirited::eek-new:


----------



## sags

They could just print paper money, hand it out, and not tell anyone............couldn't they?

There were those guys a couple of years ago who were caught at one of the European borders with billons in Euro bonds nobody seemed to know anything about. It was reported, brought up in the UK Parliament a couple of times.......and never mentioned again.

Then there were the whole planeloads of US currency sitting on skids on the Baghdad airport tarmac.......that disappeared. Actually just a day or two before 9-11, Rumsfeld was being asked questions about it. He was going to look into it.....but all the records were destroyed in one of the twin towers. It was all forgotten after that.

Who really knows what really goes on behind the scenes..........


----------



## Belguy

"The European situation more and more is looking like a massive train wreck. It's scary stuff." --Fred Ketchen, director of equity trading at Scotia-McLeod.

"The current secular bear market that started in 2000 still has another decade to go. Be careful not to let hope for the next secular bull mask the reality of the current secular bear." --Ed Easterling, founder of U.S.-based Crestmont Research.

(A secular bear market is a long period of time where the stock market ends at a lower level than where it began, though there can be periods of large gains in between.)

--Toronto Star


----------



## Belguy

The markets are in a trading range. Buy on the dips.

--BNN


----------



## VJ99

Invest in Europe ? It could be the right time, especially with this safer-than-the-market ETF . See my latest article from the National Post

http://business.financialpost.com/2...t-europes-debt-crisis-to-find-quality-stocks/


----------



## Belguy

Europe is a train wreck in the making. They say that they will do everything possible to save the euro and investors turn positive--until they realize that they haven't said just how they hope to solve something that even God himself could not solve. This ship's going down!


----------



## Four Pillars

Thanks for the update Belguy. With all the excitement around the Olympics, I had forgotten about the European financial mess.


----------



## Belguy

Setting aside Europe for a moment, the CBS Evening News reported tonight that the risk of a recession in the U.S. is now greater than ever because of all of the uncertainty resulting from nobody knowing what is coming next. Hence, consumer confidence (and spending) is declining at the same time as unemployment is rising. Overall, CBS says that the U.S. economic news is "dismal". In fact, no incumbent president has ever been elected for a second term amid such terrible economic news.


----------



## Four Pillars

Wow, that is quite the continental shift Belguy. So you think things aren't looking so sunny stateside?


----------



## Miser

Smoke and mirrors.
You owe a ton of money and allowing you to borrow more is the solution?
Not in the real world, only in the world of big banking when tax payers hold the bag.
Euro is making a short correction before disolving.


----------



## sags

Canada continues to rack up our own debt each month.........800 million in the last recorded month.

The number is small, in comparison to the US monthly deficit, but so is our economy.

It just goes to show how easy it is to spend money creating debt and how hard it is to get control over it.

Personal households are going to have to face the reality someday.


----------



## Cal

The media is always reporting some form of uncertainty in the world. That is how they sell papers. Technically there is unrest and uncertainty in every corner of the world, always has been, always will be. We don't invest in countries, we invest in companies. 

And yes, as Canadians I am sure that we can expect to have higher taxes in some form or another in the future to reduce the gov't debt loads.


----------



## Belguy

And so, with less disposable income for the folks and more job insecurity what is your prediction for corporate profits going forward? Not good!!

Precisely!!!


----------



## HaroldCrump

Cal said:


> And yes, as Canadians I am sure that we can expect to have higher taxes in some form or another in the future to reduce the gov't debt loads.


Expect? In the future?
Taxes have been steadily going up for last several years and accelerated since 2009.
Taxes are not just the nominal income tax rate %.
I agree that it will progressively get worse, but IMO the process has been going for a few years now.


----------



## kcowan

HaroldCrump said:


> IMO the process has been going for a few years now.


Nothing new here. All was anticipated back when subprime first landed in 2007. I suppose the industry pundits took several years to figure it all out. That is why we listen to them!


----------



## Belguy

As S&P downgraded its outlook on seven Canadian banks yesterday, one of the reasons given was "the current mix of international and domestic conditions that could bring about a rising level of unemployment and further constrain income growth for Canadian workers".

Consumer confidence and consumer spending will suffer and the consumer is at the heart of the economy. Without their (our) participation, it does not look good for the economy going forward. 

It's not a good atmosphere in which to be a confident investor.

Oh well, as I have said before, maybe the next generation of investors will have better timing. If you are young, you can buy at increasingly low sale prices and hold on for the rebound whenever that should occur.

For retired investors, no such luck!!:hopelessness::upset::frown::frown-new:

A S&P at 1000 is possible:

http://www.businessinsider.com/fiscal-cliff-worst-case-scenario-2012-7#


----------



## Miser

sags said:


> Canada continues to rack up our own debt each month.........800 million in the last recorded month.
> 
> The number is small, in comparison to the US monthly deficit, but so is our economy.
> 
> It just goes to show how easy it is to spend money creating debt and how hard it is to get control over it.
> 
> Personal households are going to have to face the reality someday.


Each and every Canadian owes $17,000......not good.
Each American owes $51,000......much worse.
The US will be facing reality much quicker than Canada.
US is adding another 1.2 Trillion this year, about 8% of total debt.




Canada will be close to even and predicts balance by 2014.
The US has no prediction for a balanced budget


----------



## HaroldCrump

Miser said:


> Canada will be close to even and predicts balance by 2014.
> The US has no prediction for a balanced budget


Simply balancing the budget is not big deal.
It cannot (must not) be the only goal of policy.
It is easy to balance the budget - raise taxes as much as needed, cut services as much as needed, appropriate private wealth as much as needed, sell public assets as much as needed - until the budget is "balanced". Done, finished.

The question for most developed/Western governments is can they leave enough disposable income in the hands of the vast majority of working middle classes to spend on goods and services, which ultimately create growth, jobs, and prosperity.


----------



## Miser

HaroldCrump said:


> Simply balancing the budget is not big deal.It cannot (must not) be the only goal of policy.
> It is easy to balance the budget - raise taxes as much as needed, cut services as much as needed, appropriate private wealth as much as needed, sell public assets as much as needed - until the budget is "balanced". Done, finished.
> 
> The question for most developed/Western governments is can they leave enough disposable income in the hands of the vast majority of working middle classes to spend on goods and services, which ultimately create growth, jobs, and prosperity.


Balancing the budget is totally important in every household.
Just not the governments.
That is why the world is in a mess. 
If they worked on an even budget, we are laughing.

Would you tell your kids/wife/friends....over spend and if you get in trouble, spend to get yourself out of trouble?
Not balancing the budget was what created the problem, and you suggest it is no big deal.

Try Ec 101 and then come back.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Miser said:


> Would you tell your kids/wife/friends....over spend and if you get in trouble, spend to get yourself out of trouble?
> Not balancing the budget was what created the problem, and you suggest it is no big deal.
> 
> Try Ec 101 and then come back.


You completely misunderstood what I said above.
A deficit in the budget is not the root of the problem - it is merely the symptom of a problem.
It is like fever - there is always an underlying reason.

And yes, I will say again - if "showing off" a balanced book is all we should care about, then it is indeed easy.
Take Canada for instance - we can wipe off our fiscal deficit within 1 year by increasing income tax rates by 10%, HST by another 5%, removing tax credits and deductions, privatizing health care, etc.
We don't have to wait until 2016, this can be done as early as 2013.

We did have a balanced budget not too long ago, remember?
We even had a slight surplus, if I recall.
So, what happened?
What does your "Ec 101" say?


----------



## Miser

First off I respect your stuff, you know economics. That was a bit harsh on my part.
Canada's deficit, not debt would take way less than you mention. We are going in the right direction and the US is not.
http://www.torontosun.com/2012/07/27/canada-deficit-shrinks-at-start-of-new-fiscal-year
We are not in bad shape but if the US falls so do we, just less.
Canada like every nation got hit by the economic downturn and used previous surplus to ease the pain.
That is what should happen.
Pay off debt in good times and go into debt in troubled times.
Keynes basically wasn't an idiot just government spent their asses off.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Canada continues to rack up our own debt each month.........800 million in the last recorded month.
> 
> The number is small, in comparison to the US monthly deficit, but so is our economy.
> 
> It just goes to show how easy it is to spend money creating debt and how hard it is to get control over it.
> 
> Personal households are going to have to face the reality someday.


Canada's deficit as a % of GDP is much lower. On the order or 1 or 2% federally and another 1 or 2% provincially. The US deficit is 9% of GDP. That is clearly unsustainable, when GDP is growing at 2%.

Canada needs slight adjustments to make its fiscal policy sustainable. The US needs major adjustments. Their deficit is something like 40% of government revenues. The gap is huge.


----------



## Miser

andrewf said:


> Canada's deficit as a % of GDP is much lower. On the order or 1 or 2% federally and another 1 or 2% provincially. The US deficit is 9% of GDP. That is clearly unsustainable, when GDP is growing at 2%.
> 
> Canada needs slight adjustments to make its fiscal policy sustainable. The US needs major adjustments. Their deficit is something like 40% of government revenues. The gap is huge.


Nice stuff.
I posted this before but it sums up what I am trying to say. Dumbed down.....its good for me.








Click on it and it gets bigger...........lol


----------



## Belguy

I watched Paul Krugman on Fareed Zakaria's CNN program today and he said that, while the current economic situation is not as bad as the Great Depression, it is still "pretty terrible". He stated that when everybody is deleveraging, as is happening now, you end up with a depressed economy. He feels that the crisis in Europe is worsening because the remedies that the political leaders are coming up with are not keeping up with what is happening in the economy and that we are "heading for a moment of truth". Greece, he claims, is a "lost cause" and the run on Greek banks will start the dominoes falling leading to runs on Spanish and Italian banks and then "the whole thing will begin to fall apart".

Scary stuff. Stay tuned.


----------



## Belguy

Investing in a deflationary environoment:

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1231364--deflation-living-in-a-world-of-falling-prices

Any thoughts?


----------



## londoncalling

Deflation and inflation aren't always a bad thing. It is only when they are uncontrollable that it becomes an issue.


----------



## Lephturn

Stagflation is the real risk and IMO what we are in - and may stay in for a long time. Like 20 years. Low to moderate inflation with very low to no growth. Your savings slowly degrades in purchasing power while there is still extremely low interest rates and no growth to speak of. It makes sense to me that as we pump the money supply and use deficit spending in true Keynesian style, we simply drag the inevitable de-leveraging out over a very large period of time.

Take a look at Iceland - they took the big hit up front, defaulted, massively devalued their currency, and are on the road to recovery. On the other end of the spectrum is the US, who have the most credit availability and can drive themselves the furthest in debt before they "hit the wall". Pardon my sexist expression - but the US is the prettiest girl at the ugly girl dance - and although that COULD be used to give them time to get their house in order, the political reality down there indicates that it just gives them more time to slide further into the hole. Did I say "slide"? I meant "dive at terminal velocity" into the hole.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Inflation (i.e. increase in money supply, not the CPI) is hurting us in many ways, but perhaps the worst effect is what it is doing to commodity and resources.
That is slowing down recovery for those that need to recover, and stunting growth for those that are still growing.
Producers and consumers alike are hurt by it.
The worst affected are the poor and the middle classes, esp. in under-developing and "emerging" parts of the world.

The irresponsible and profligate governments are printing like drunken sailors, and then manipulating interest rates to keep their borrowing costs low, but they are entirely ignoring the fact that those very policies are hurting them the most.
It is like putting shackels around your ankles when you are trying to run.


----------



## Belguy

"We are on a knife's edge."---BNN Analyst

September is historically the month when the market is most apt to react negatively to a crisis situation. I guess this is because the professional money managers all come back from their summers at the beach.

From the 'It's better to be safe than sorry department' one money manager on BNN today says that he is light on equities right now due to all of the uncertaintly and that he figures that his clients will understand that it is OK to miss the first two innings of a possible QE3 rebound to protect against any downside risk over the next couple of months at least.


----------



## Miser

Deleveraging is what is going on and panic on future lack of liquidity in Euro Zone.
A run on the banks in Spain/Italy/Greece is possible.

Troubled times.......cash and PM's for me.


----------



## sags

Lots of money printing........but it has had no velocity.

Much of it is sitting on bank balance sheets, where it has no economic impact.


----------



## Belguy

The Great Recession:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57483864/consumer-mood-remains-in-recession/?tag=stack

During recessionary times, instead of investing in exciting growth stocks, invest in stocks of boring companies. The shares of companies that make products and services that will be needed regardless of economic circumstances, things such as health products, food staples, fertilizer, energy or discount stores. You want to buy companies that produce things that we need, not necessarily things that we want. (consumer staples versus consumer discretionary).

--Cramer/Toronto Star 

Because of the severe U.S. drought, consumers will be spending more money on food than at any time in the past several decade and this will negatively affect the entire economy.

--Cramer


----------



## Belguy

Scratching for pitiful future returns:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ross-sees-bleak-returns-ahead/article4453313/

Little upside potential but high risk going forward.

Forget about the VIX!! Look at bonds instead:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-market-is-the-new-fear-index/article4453148/


----------



## Miser

Increase in food prices will be infationary......we all gotsta eat!
Fuel is the 2nd part of it......deflation or inflation is my quandary!


----------



## Belguy

In an economic climate such as we are currently experiencing, many would expect the markets to remain flat or move slightly lower. So far, with seven full months of the year behind us, the TSX at least is performing according to these expectations and is down 2.43% YTD.

On the other hand, with more diversification and a lower commodity play, the S&P 500 is up 9.68% YTD.

Lesson learned: Don't rely too much on commodities during recessionary periods.

Boring old consumer staples, utilities, and health care might be better places to put your emphasis rather on exciting growth type stocks.


----------



## Belguy

Fed statement today showed that the economy is visibly slowing and there is significant uncertainty going forward. 

Even if the Fed did something significant, it wouldn't have any significant results.

Nonetheless, they changed the wording from "may" to "will" offer additional accommodations in the future--just not quite yet.


----------



## Belguy

When I first started this thread, many months ago, a lot of folks indicated that they believed that I was being far too negative. Nothing that I have seen since has convinced me that we are going to avoid a catastrophe as a result of the mess in Europe. In fact, many believe that parts of Europe are already in a depression and that the strongest European nations do not have the ability to save the day. If I had to guess, I would say that we might have the month of August to muddle along as we have but watch out for September!! I sincerely do hope that I have been crying wolf too much and that we somehow come out of this without a worldwide economic collapse. Take care.

http://www.infowars.com/11-signs-that-time-is-quickly-running-out-for-the-global-financial-system/


----------



## londoncalling

Europe has the ability but like their American cousins they do not have the political will to do what is necessary. Massive spending cuts and increased taxation never result in re election.


----------



## Belguy

Well, they just might be able to get re-elected even in the midst of an economic depression that they themselves helped to bring about but, if I were them, I wouldn't count on it.


----------



## Belguy

More verbiage and can kicking today by Draghi but still no positive ACTION.

Words are cheap.


----------



## Belguy

The ECB can't act until the governments tell them to act!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...s-euro-debt-crisis-multiplies/article4457221/


----------



## sags

The comments from the business channels following Bernanke's speeches.........reminds me of Seinfeld episodes..........

George............He had tone, Jerry

Jerry...............That's right George..........tone is very important, and he had great tone.

George.............And his mannerisms..........did you notice his mannerisms?

Jerry................Of course, he is a Zen master of mannerisms.

George..............Did you observe how serious his facial expressions were?

Jerry................Oh.....I observed..........Serious........He couldn't project a more serious face.

George..............Projection is important here isn't it Jerry

Jerry.................If you don't project.........what do you really have?


----------



## Belguy

Frequently, I am reading headlines that say something like "stocks drop on Europe worries" and then I read that the problems in Europe "will take years to resolve".

How then do you rationalize these two statements and what does it tell us about where the equity markets will be headed in the months and years ahead?


----------



## Lephturn

Belguy said:


> Frequently, I am reading headlines that say something like "stocks drop on Europe worries" and then I read that the problems in Europe "will take years to resolve".
> 
> How then do you rationalize these two statements and what does it tell us about where the equity markets will be headed in the months and years ahead?


You don't and it tells us nothing. This is why I don't watch the business news.  Paying attention to that drivel will only hurt your head and your account size. The only reason to pay attention to news is to know when there are scheduled events that I will stay away from or protect myself against.


----------



## humble_pie

grandiosity killed the cat, said the familiar voice from above.

everyone looked up.

i'm talking to you Dormouse, said the Grin.


----------



## londoncalling

Belguy said:


> Frequently, I am reading headlines that say something like "stocks drop on Europe worries" and then I read that the problems in Europe "will take years to resolve".
> 
> How then do you rationalize these two statements and what does it tell us about where the equity markets will be headed in the months and years ahead?


In the upcoming months? up, down and sideways (not necessarily in that order)... in the years ahead up down or sideways but I am betting on up. I know I am right about up in the years ahead. I just don't know how many it will take. and it may go down or sideways before it goes up. Know your tolerance and invest accordingly.


----------



## kcowan

and recognize that we are in a long term secular bear cycle so that any short term gains will be given back until a secular bull market returns. When? Probably measured in years. Since we have adopted the Japanese strategy for managing the economy, maybe decades!


----------



## Belguy

But I'll be dead by then!!:crushed::apologetic::nightmare::disturbed:

Does this mean that my portfolio of index investments has nowhere to go but down from here? If so, I may as well sell and get out sooner rather than later????


----------



## kcowan

Interesting chart on the overall % of portfolios in equities:









Looks like under 50% for all time and presently around 38%. And trending down which is consistent with a secular bear market.


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> Does this mean that my portfolio of index investments has nowhere to go but down from here? If so, I may as well sell and get out sooner rather than later????


Too late. You should have done that in 2008. Now it means down down down.


----------



## Belguy

Dang, dang, dang!! Too late to the dance again---still!!:frown-new::chargrined::sorrow:

Why couldn't I have retired in the middle of a secular BULL market?

My terrible timing is why I do not buy lottery tickets.


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> Dang, dang, dang!! Too late to the dance again---still!!:frown-new::chargrined::sorrow:
> 
> Why couldn't I have retired in the middle of a secular BULL market?


Blame your parents. You're problems would have been solved if only you had been born 20 years earlier... :dispirited:


----------



## Belguy

Germany is reaching the end of it's rope with Greece!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...sends-stark-warning-to-greece/article4478433/

Is your money safe? I still say to beware the ides of September.:cower::eek2::eek-new::dread:


----------



## sags

Belguy said:


> Germany is reaching the end of it's rope with Greece!
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...sends-stark-warning-to-greece/article4478433/
> 
> Is your money safe? I still say to beware the ides of September.:cower::eek2::eek-new::dread:


The ECB is printing Euros to give to the Greeks, so the Greeks can give the ECB back the Euros to pay the interest on their debt to the ECB.

So......if the ECB cuts off the flow of Euros to Greece.........then Greece doesn't pay the interest on their debt.

Default..............or is it?

Do the lenders get paid from financial institutions holding credit default swaps?

Or do they spend the next couple of years arguing if the failure to pay is truly a default or not?

Leave it to us to design a financial system that nobody regulates, few understand, and could lead the world into utter economic disaster.


----------



## Lephturn

Belguy said:


> Germany is reaching the end of it's rope with Greece!
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...sends-stark-warning-to-greece/article4478433/
> 
> Is your money safe? I still say to beware the ides of September.:cower::eek2::eek-new::dread:


So you are hedged right? You've got some 10 delta OTM index puts? I sure do.


----------



## Belguy

Lephturn said:


> So you are hedged right? You've got some 10 delta OTM index puts? I sure do.


I am a simple man and so speak simple English.:distrust::culpability::disturbed::topsy_turvy:


----------



## Belguy

How public pension funds have performed during these difficult times due, in part, to their investments in public equity and hedge funds:

http://www.towerswatson.com/assets/pdf/6267/Global-Pensions-Asset-Study-2012.pdf

Well, those are better results than most of us are experiencing!!


----------



## Cal

The international study said that 'Global pension assets in 2011...up 3.9% compared to the previous year.'

I wouldn't be impressed with a 3.9% return, given the state of the markets in 2011. Although I am sure that a portion of the pension plans must be in cash, for payouts, which would hinder them from achieving greater returns. Too bad the study didn't show how much was being paid out on average to manage every $100 of these funds. That would have been interesting, as I am sure it would have varied from country to country.


----------



## Lephturn

As I've been saying - be afraid of bonds. Be very afraid.

"Treasurys continue to sell off, the yield on the 10-year of 1.78% is the highest since May, and up from 1.39% in 3 weeks. Prices are far from cheap though. A buyer today would lose 6.78% of his/her principal - equal to more than 3 years of coupons - with an increase in yields of just another 50 basis points (h/t tradefast). TLT -5.4% since July 24."

How much of your portfolio is in bonds? Granted if you own the actual bonds you can always hold them to maturity - you just have to hope inflation doesn't pick up along with rates and wind up with negative real yields.


----------



## Lephturn

Belguy said:


> I am a simple man and so speak simple English.:distrust::culpability::disturbed::topsy_turvy:


Sorry... have you purchased any insurance on your portfolio? By insurance I mean out of the money put options.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Lephturn said:


> By insurance I mean out of the money put options.


You are still speaking Chinese to him, surely you know this.


----------



## Belguy

Lephturn said:


> Sorry... have you purchased any insurance on your portfolio? By insurance I mean out of the money put options.


How many small investors actually know what 'out of the money put options' actually mean?

All that I mainly do is to buy broad-based ETF's and hold them forever and trade only for rebalancing purposes.

As stated, I am a simple man.:rolleyes2::02.47-tranquillity::stupid::highly_amused:


----------



## Lephturn

Toronto.gal said:


> You are still speaking Chinese to him, surely you know this.


Yeah - but somebody else might read it and consider a bit of safety. 

belguy - those that don't know what a put option is might be interested and go do a bit of reading on it. I got where I am because I read something I didn't understand about how I could protect my investment portfolio so I went out and figured it out. Not everyone will, but who knows, my offhanded comment could wind up helping somebody someday. Or not... but it makes me feel better at least.


----------



## Belguy

The situation in Europe continues to worsen with no relief in sight:

http://www.thestar.com/business/art...-to-recession-as-economy-shrinks-0-2-per-cent


----------



## Toronto.gal

Lephturn said:


> 1. Yeah - but somebody else might read it and consider a bit of safety.
> 2. I got where I am because I read something I didn't understand....


1. When you put it that way, absolutely! 
2. Ditto, but as you said, not everyone will have the ability/inclination or desire to learn.

*Belguy:* I'm glad to see you're amused, though still obsessed with Europe! :biggrin:


----------



## Belguy

Q: "How much of your portfolio is in bonds? Granted if you own the actual bonds you can always hold them to maturity - you just have to hope inflation doesn't pick up along with rates and wind up with negative real yields."

A: My bond allocation is 40 per cent of my portfolio. My main bond investment is the PH&N Bond Fund D but I also hold a U.S. corporate bond ETF (LQD) as well as the SPDR Series Trust Barclay's High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) and the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund (EDD).

By the way, when it comes to being obsessed with Europe, believe me, I am far from being alone as it is on a lot of investors' minds.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> By the way, when it comes to being obsessed with Europe, believe me, I am far from being alone as *it is on a lot of investors' minds.*


Sure, but not on a daily basis. 

Also, what's the point to worry so much when you don't do much about it anyway? 

Enjoy the last days of summer!


----------



## humble_pie

Alice gave the Dormouse an affectionate hug.

you are indeed alone in your preoccupation with lands you've never even seen, she said. But never mind. It has become your signature. It's what makes you so eccentric. T'es distinct.

c'est correct, on t'aime, said the Black Prince, who was until recently the Froggy Footman. On t'aime jusqu'à la folie.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> On t'aime jusqu'à la folie.


Comme toujours, tu as raison! :biggrin:


----------



## Belguy

I have done something about it! I changed my target asset allocation!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

My point is that you should reduce your [daily] anxiety and enjoy your life more! If you're satisfied with your changes, then don't worry so much.

You obviously like to read, how about reading something to lift up your spirits, instead of all the market stuff.


----------



## Belguy

Beware the ides of September!! The big institutional investors will be back after Labour Day from their summer on the golf course!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...mber-may-be-stormy-for-stocks/article4496833/

Why some of the markets have done comparatively well of late, amid so much uncertainty, is anybody's guess but the chickens may soon come home to roost.


----------



## Belguy

Two thirds of the way through the year and what has the TSX achieved. Through much volatility--up, down, up, down--where have we ended up? As of the end of August, the YTD % change is DOWN 0.05% (down 1.1% over the past week). Effectively, the return of the commodity heavy index has been basically ZERO--nada--nothing!

The more sector diversified S&P 500 Index has done considerably better with a YTD % change of UP 11.85%.

Perhaps this is more evidence that diversifying by sector is better than betting long term on a limited number of sectors. It is also evidence that tilting your portfolio in favour of commodities will potentially increase the volatility which you will experience. It might also be evidence of the advantage of diversifying internationally.

Anyway, September should be a very interesting month for investors. Any bets on where these two indexes will be at the end of the month?


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> Perhaps this is more evidence that diversifying by sector is better than betting long term on a limited number of sectors. It is also evidence that tilting your portfolio in favour of commodities will potentially increase the volatility which you will experience. It might also be evidence of the advantage of diversifying internationally.


Perhaps the better evidence is the thousands and thousands of data points academics and professionals work through when they have analyzed thoroughly market behaviours and correlations among assets.

I would think that a comparison among 2 or 3 international markets beginning since Jan 1, 2012 doesn't actually mean too much.


----------



## Belguy

Unprecedented!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-never-been-a-slump-like-this/article4528610/

Long and protracted: 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...nd-think-beyond-the-big-stall/article4527910/

This is not a great time to be a retired investor. Even our bond funds aren't saving us. Oh well, maybe things will be different the next time around!!


----------



## zylon




----------



## Belguy

Nothing is resolved in Europe. They have kicked the can down the road. They are in a recession with no end in sight.:grey::grey::grey::grey:


----------



## scomac

zylon,

That is the most entertaining thing I've seen on this entire thread. It's not often that you get a politician who actually speaks his mind; refreshing despite the theatrics.


----------



## zylon

*scomac:*

Someone called him "the modern day Churchill"
I've posted a couple Youtubes of Farage here and there ... always entertaining.

He had a close call couple years ago.


----------



## HaroldCrump

He was on Capital Account a couple of weeks ago.
Very good interview (about 25 mins. long)
http://rt.com/programs/capital-account/nigel-farage-ukip-us/


----------



## thenegotiator

Belguy said:


> Nothing is resolved in Europe. They have kicked the can down the road. They are in a recession with no end in sight.


for ya Belguy
can't go wrong right?:encouragement:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-05/all-bonds-rally-first-time-since-2008-with-portugal-up.html


----------



## Miser

I am shorting the Euro everytime it has an upward push!
Poor designed currency and is doomed.


----------



## thenegotiator

Miser said:


> I am shorting the Euro everytime it has an upward push!
> Poor designed currency and is doomed.


I would be very careful there if ur short at this level.
I am actually bullish the EURO at this level.
let alone the YEN.


----------



## Belguy

From my perspective, nothing about the European Sovereign Debt Crisis is getting any better and Europe is now in a deep and long lasting recession.

Do you see ANY cause for optimism and, if so, what would it be?

Europe is a mess, China is slowing, and the U.S. fiscal cliff is just weeks away.:frown::hopelessness::cower::eek2:

What percentage of your assets are currently invested in equities?


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

Belguy said:


> Do you see ANY cause for optimism and, if so, what would it be?
> 
> .... the U.S. fiscal cliff is just weeks away.:frown::hopelessness::cower::eek2:


Do I see any cause for optimism? - yeah, everyone seems to be bearish.

US Fiscal cliff? lol So the date's been set huh? It's just weeks away now? (again) lol

Time to slow down on the kool-aid consumption there young fellow! This world's been spinning a long time now and I doubt there's going to be much difference a month from now. Maybe it might seem that way if you watch too much media, but the reality is a whole lot different than what the media feeds the masses on an hour by hour basis.

C'mon Belguy, you've been around way too long to believe all the nonsense. That's not to say I don't enjoy my weekend Doom and Gloom report ;-)


----------



## Belguy

While some have their heads in the sand, I am hiding out under the bed!!:hopelessness::cower::hopelessness::cower:

I think that I will have to agree with Chicken Little this time when he says that "the sky is falling".


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

I might be reminiscing too much tonight, but wasn't it just yesterday we were dealing with the impending US Debt Ceiling?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=debt ceiling 

lol naw, it was just bad dream I had for a month straight, last year. It doesn't matter that they've had to boost that same ceiling several times since then and countless times before then yet not once since have we heard much about it. Ah the media and the people just love a good story don't they? Check out that spiffy trend on the link provided.

That however is not to be outdone by the recent catch phrase Fiscal Cliff. Yes, good old Mr Fiscal is at it again.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=fiscal cliff

My personal favorite Golden Oldie is the blessed Troubled Assets.. http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=troubled assets

:smilet-digitalpoint

How do we manage to survive? haha


----------



## Belguy

And by the way, whatever became of acid rain which was going to destroy all of our lakes?

Also, from the 'live and learn' department, I have not sold anything out of fear but, at my age, am just as happy that my asset allocation includes just 50 per cent equities.

Last week, while my equity holdings took a beating, my fixed income and precious metals investments cushioned the drop just as they are expected to do when the markets take a hit because of fiscal concerns.


----------



## kcowan

It turns out that my forecasts for the year were optimistic. Who would have thunk it!


----------



## sags

Fiscal Cliff.com registered April 25, 2012..........directs to Yahoo Finance.

Fiscal Cliff.ca..................not registered..........Canadians don't seem to care as much.


----------



## Belguy

"It looks like a rough slog ahead. Be cautious with your money."

--Gordon Pape, Toronto Star, November 12, 2012


----------



## kcowan

> An eye-opener, domestic equity funds had $30B in outflows in October, according to Goldman Sachs. It's the largest amount
> of the year, and represents one-third of all of 2011's outflows. Bond funds had their biggest inflows of the year - $44B against
> an average $32B. (Seeking Alpha)


Could be the start of a trend?


----------



## scomac

kcowan said:


> Could be the start of a trend?


Or the tipping point -- time to be contrarian. :calm:


----------



## Belguy

Is the TSX back yet to the level that it started the year? If not, it must be getting close to the break even point and in real danger of ending the year with a loss--perhaps a significant one if the fiscal cliff is not avoided by the hapless politicians.:hopelessness::cower::hopelessness::cower:

Oh the never ending trials and tribulations of a retired investor!!!

However, for the younger whipper snappers out there, still another in a seeming endless array of buying opportunities!!

Ah to be young again with cash on hand!!!


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

Belguy said:


> Ah to be young again with cash on hand!!!


I just figured out you were 69. 
How long have you been acting like you're 95 and in the grave? Smoke a joint and relax!, and get off the crack-pipe of couch potato. :smilet-digitalpoint haha



> Is the TSX back yet to the level that it started the year?


I have the TSX up a buck and a half plus divs this year, and soundly down over the last couple. Ditto since 2006 too I do believe.

Have a good evening Belguy. Watch out for that banana peel I tossed on the floor.


----------



## Belguy

:monkey::monkey::monkey::monkey:


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

Belguy. let me restate those TSX numbers! haha 

Thought of you all day today for some reason. :smilet-digitalpoint


----------



## thenegotiator

kcowan said:


> It turns out that my forecasts for the year were optimistic. Who would have thunk it!


dunno ur forecasts but the year has not ended ...... yet


----------



## Belguy

Next potential shock to the markets--a war in the Middle East. It's a bigger tinderbox over there than ever!!:hopelessness::cower::eek2::eek-new:


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

Bigger than a Texas Sucession?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=texas sucession

Don't forget Buffett selling. http://www.cnbc.com/id/49827014

Well, June 30th filing anyway. haha. But let's make it a news item today to keep the fear growing as peasants don't read the fine print to find out that he's not necessarily selling now. I'll bet he was buying today actually.

Fear-Porn. I love it.


----------



## thenegotiator

Belguy said:


> Next potential shock to the markets--a war in the Middle East. It's a bigger tinderbox over there than ever!!:hopelessness::cower::eek2::eek-new:


I will make only one comment to ur post belguy.
people are dying and it looks like u have the stock mkt in ur head only.
look around urself for a moment and ur 6 figures bank acct.


----------



## Belguy

Money is the root of all evil!!:greedy_dollars::greedy_dollars::greedy_dollars::greedy_dollars:


----------



## thenegotiator

wrong again.
people are evil.
money is used to do evil things.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I agree with thenegotiator.
As Karl Marx said, humans have made money into a fetish.
It is merely a reflection of the true nature of the economic system that underpins everything.
It is part of the superstructure, not the economic base.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_and_superstructure


----------



## sags

As home prices have started to decline, Canadians may have enough to worry about at home, without concerning themselves about the fate of Europe.

No retirement savings, disappearing home equity, suffocating debt levels............don't point to happy times ahead.


----------



## bayview

Plus rising Federal/Budget deficit.


----------



## kcowan

BNN Marty Cej said:


> With a decline of more than 200 points Wednesday, Canada's benchmark stock index erased its gain for 2012 and cemented its position as the worst-performing major stock index in North America. Even France's CAC 40 and Italy's Mibtel index are outperforming Canada year-to-date. What gives? At my last check, which was a few minutes ago, the euro-zone slipped into a recession for the second time in four years as GDP for the 17-country block that proudly use the euro as their currency shrank 0.1 percent in the third quarter following a decline of 0.2 percent in the preceding three months. In the U.S., where unemployment is higher and interest rates lower, stocks continue to outshine their northern counterparts. What's a Canadian investor to do as the year comes to a close?


And then there is "Violence in the middle east"! Hello, tell me something that I did not know...


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

kcowan said:


> And then there is "Violence in the middle east"! Hello, tell me something that I did not know...


haha if they could do that they would be running money not flying desk telling you with perfect clarity what happened yesterday. I don't watch news but i think i know who marty is. Only guy on that program that I ever saw have any clue is berman/beman guy or some close name. Amanda was hotty. haha.


----------



## Belguy

Two stories caught my eye today. First, Morgan Stanley reaffirmed it's prediction for gloomy market returns going forward. Also, dividend paying stocks are being hit hardest by fears of more taxation resulting from the fiscal cliff.

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-investors-dumping-dividend-stocks-175502252.html


----------



## sags

bayview said:


> Plus rising Federal/Budget deficit.


Yup and that.........and it will continue to rise until at least after the next election. Harper isn't planning to go into an election after cutting social programs or raising taxes.

Flaherty will probably find a few goodies left in his Santa sack, right around election time.


----------



## thenegotiator

HaroldCrump said:


> I agree with thenegotiator.
> As Karl Marx said, humans have made money into a fetish.
> It is merely a reflection of the true nature of the economic system that underpins everything.
> It is part of the superstructure, not the economic base.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_and_superstructure



thks for the above quotation Harold.
atm my mind is somewhere else.
cheers


----------



## Belguy

Why is the Betrayus sex scandal receiving ten times the coverage of the fiscal cliff by the media in the Excited States?

I think that I am wasting too much time watching CNN but at least it beats watching the one-sided, 'fair and balanced' coverage on Fox News.

Anyway, the politicians seemed a little more conciliatory today and so the stock markets took heart and went up a little but it was still a dismal week.

The most disheartening news of all was that they are going to stop making Twinkies in the U.S. but they will still be manufactured in Canada---thank God!!!


----------



## Belguy

So, as the year moves towards a close, how are things over in Europe? Are they still in a multi year recession? What effect has the European debt crisis had on world stock markets? It would be interesting to speculate on how the markets might have performed if Europe had kept it's act in order instead of the mess that they are in now. Do you buy into the theory that we are indeed a few years into what will amount to a lost decade for the economy and stock markets around the world? Has the European economic situation turned out to be worse than you might have originally imagined? How well have European politicians done in trying to contain the problem? How long do you think that this problem will take to play out and how do you think that it will play out? Will the euro survive? Will any nations end up having to leave or be kicked out of the union or will the Euro zone somehow survive in it's present form? Have you changed your investment methods taking into account the potential length and severity of the European economic crisis? How likely is North America to experience another recession in the relative short term as a result of contagion from Europe? How will the European crisis affect Asian economies? Do you foresee any possibility of a sustained bull market for equities until the European debt crisis is finally put behind us--however many years that may take? 

Also, with all of this in mind, when will interest rates finally begin to rise as has been long predicted and how much will they increase? Do you see any chance of substantial rate increases in the foreseeable future?

What are your investment plans for 2013? Are you optimistic or pessimistic about equity markets in 2013?

Or, like me, are you continuing to hide under the bed?:hopelessness::cower::hopelessness::cower:


----------



## Argonaut

Hey Belguy, you should go on a vacation to Europe. It's a great place to visit. Best case: you help spur the local economies, you see that it ain't that bad after all, and you actually have some fun. Worst case: Everything goes to hell, but at least you spent your retirement money on vacation instead of watching it disappear for nothing!


----------



## kcowan

Go to the Parthenon. Take pictures. Drink retsina. Eat lamb.

Then go to Santorini. Drink grappa. Eat goat. Take a mule ride.

Then you will appreciate first hand that it is all politics and has liitle influence on the people.


----------



## thenegotiator

Miser said:


> I am shorting the Euro everytime it has an upward push!
> Poor designed currency and is doomed.


here is ur push towards the 1.31 area.
i would not even think of shorting it before that tgt is hit which could lead to a higher high by year's end.
getting overbought by the way.
a mere short covering rally.
nothiung changed fundamentally.
i do hope u did not short it at the levels i have mentioned when u originally posted this .
cheers


----------



## Toronto.gal

kcowan said:


> Go to the Parthenon. Take pictures. Drink retsina. Eat lamb.
> 
> Then go to Santorini. Drink grappa. Eat goat. Take a mule ride.
> 
> Then you will appreciate first hand that it is all politics and has liitle influence on the people.


Those are crowded places and might not be Belguy's style.

For complete peace & relaxation & no traffic, I recommend Hydra Island. Eat Grecian [not Turkish] baklava. Take a donkey or water-taxi ride.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydra_(island)

Of course, there is more to Europe than Greece, or how about South America? :encouragement:

*'Betrayus sex scandal'*. LOL. :highly_amused:


----------



## Nemo2

Toronto.gal said:


> how about South America?


I hear that Tierra del Fuego is particularly miserable this time of year. :chuncky:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Indeed the summers are cool in the Land of Fire; there is rain & even snow!


----------



## humble_pie

even better, how about kcowan t.gal haroldcrump misterpincer lephturn plus assorted spice & girl/boy/friends all go rent a yacht or house in the northern aegean ... off the beaten path.

argo gob barwelle & the other kids can go to some other island that's crowded, fun & noisy w bazouki, though.

best of all we will leave the Dormouse behind in wintry ontario

(signed)
love, Alice

er, spice are the plural of spouse


----------



## Belguy

So, it seems that Stephen Colbert lost on the Powerball lottery--again!! Thus, he has decided not to fritter any more of his hard-earned money on the lottery and, instead, has decided to put it in something much less risky and more sensible like the stock market!!

:stupid::stupid::stupid::stupid:


----------



## scomac

Argonaut said:


> Hey Belguy, you should go on a vacation to Europe. It's a great place to visit. Best case: you help spur the local economies, you see that it ain't that bad after all, and you actually have some fun. Worst case: Everything goes to hell, but at least you spent your retirement money on vacation instead of watching it disappear for nothing!


Excellent suggestion! I just returned last month from the Mediterranean. Barcelona was bustling. The cafe across the street from my hotel was still lively at 1:30 am. Whether Nice, Rome, Dubrovnik or Venice, there was no sign of impending doom even though it did ultimately visit Venice after we left in the form of Aqua Alta. Drink the wine, enjoy the cuisine and soak up the atmosphere. Meet the most interesting people. Life is good! No need to fret over things beyond your control.


----------



## kcowan

We did an 8-day Adriatic cruise with 38 others. Then a motor trip up the Dalmation coast to the Island of Krk. Finally a few days in Zagreb before jetting to Istanbul and Zurich. One month in total. Got back Oct 3rd.

Croatia is beautiful but we were impressed with Istanbul. We'll be back there. Possibly combined with a Black Sea adventure.


----------



## Belguy

Don't forget to include Athens on your travel itinerary. I hear that it is a riot over there!!

:highly_amused::eek2::eek-new::friendly_wink:


----------



## Nemo2

kcowan said:


> Croatia is beautiful but we were impressed with Istanbul.


Croatia is great. Istanbul.....still remember the first time I was there....carrying a backpack in 1963.....since school was out they allowed two of us to stay a couple nights at an old university.....camp cots, huge auditorium, pitch dark, and footsteps echoed throughout the building.

Last time I was there we stayed at the _Pera Palace._ :chuncky:


----------



## Belguy

Lots of people with money on this thread!! Did you make it on the stock market?

:encouragement::highly_amused::confused2:


----------



## thenegotiator

Belguy said:


> Lots of people with money on this thread!! Did you make it on the stock market?
> 
> 
> i can vow for T.gal:encouragement:
> as for ya with ur 6 figures , i really do not see a problem for a good round the world trip.


----------



## Argonaut

Well, we tried.. but I guess Belguy is a lifetime masochinvestor like I originally thought. He prefers the weather under the bed than that of the Mediterranean I suppose.


----------



## Belguy

I never really did have much of a travel bug but now, more than ever, I am happy to stay close to home but I wouldn't mind spending a winter sitting on the benches on the Santa Monica Pier just watching the girls go by and thinking of my younger days.ig::excitement:layful:


----------



## humble_pie

look at this, said Alice. 39 othos athinas.

why, asked the Black Prince.

that navy-blue door leads to a tiny sleeping loft just for one, said Alice. We could take the Dormouse with us & he'd have his own little room.

hay soos kreest, groaned the Black Prince.


----------



## londoncalling

*through the looking glass*

Thanks HP... glad to see the adventures of Alice and the Dormouse are rekindled.


I am sure the world will keep spinning and the sun shall rise tomorrow. Have faith Mr. Belguy. The sky is falling but it won't crush you... or I...

Cheers!:encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. 39 *othos athinas.*
> 2. that navy-blue door...


1. πολύ αστείο. :highly_amused:
2. I think it's closer to royal than navy blue [if it weren't for the shade provided by the tree]. 

Comme ça:









*Belguy:* No need to be rich to go to the *Pera Palace* anymore; it was expensive in 1892 though.


----------



## Nemo2

Toronto.gal said:


> No need to be rich to go to the *Pera Palace* anymore; it was expensive in 1892 though.


'Faded Elegance' when we were there, (pre-renovations), but they still had the little guy in the "Matador's uniform" operating the tiny wrought-iron-sided elevator. :encouragement:


----------



## Belguy

I think that some of the trolls on this forum have hijacked my thread---again!!:upset::frown::livid:


----------



## Toronto.gal

LOL, that's what happens when you ask 18 questions in a single paragraph. :hopelessness:

To answer your 2nd last question, I'm a realist, hence I expect negative & positive outcomes every year. 

Like your single investment strategy, you may also believe that you can either be a [long-term] optimist or pessimist, lol, but you can/should be both, so why don't u make that your early 2013 resolution?. :encouragement:


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> LOL, that's what happens when you ask 18 questions in a single paragraph. :hopelessness:
> 
> To answer your 2nd last question, I'm a realist, hence I expect negative & positive outcomes every year.
> 
> Like your single investment strategy, you may also believe that you can either be a [long-term] optimist or pessimist, lol, but you can/should be both, so why don't u make that your early 2013 resolution?. :encouragement:


are you actually counting Belguy's questions?
u eat patience for breakfast , lunch and dinner.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Mr. Belguy is funny [and I'm here for entertainment, too], so yes, I read his post and while reading it, i counted the ?????????????????? marks in my head, but it didn't take me extra time to do so, plus I'm a fast reader. :encouragement:

Now, get back on topic and answer his questions about Europe & the Lost Decade.


----------



## Belguy

Staying on topic in the first place might be a better plan.

While I have often been accused of being too negative, please do keep in mind that I have always stayed fully invested through ALL market conditions according to my target asset allocation. Even back in 2008, I rode out the storm and sold nothing out of a sense of panic.

Doesn't that indicate a degree of confidence and overall positive thinking?

For better or worse, market timing has never been part of my strategy and I will not be selling because of anything that happens in Europe or because of the fiscal cliff in the U.S. because it goes against my religion.

However, that doesn't mean that I shouldn't discuss it on what I understand to be a discussion forum and it doesn't mean that others should not be active traders or market timers if they find those strategies more suitable for their personalities and needs.

Let's meet somewhere in thirty years and find out what system has worked best when all is said and done.

If Europe breaks apart, all bets are off and I will see you in the bread line!!!


----------



## scomac

Belguy said:


> While I have often been accused of being too negative, please do keep in mind that I have always stayed fully invested through ALL market conditions according to my target asset allocation. Even back in 2008, I rode out the storm and sold nothing out of a sense of panic.
> 
> Doesn't that indicate a degree of confidence and overall positive thinking?


No. All staying invested does is indicate a strong commitment to the passive "Couch Potato" strategy. You've been as consistent with that as you have been with posting threads that are steeped in negative sentiment.

I've suggested to you on a number of occasions previously that you need to find a hobby other than hanging on every word written or said by the financial media. Part of the attractiveness of a passive "Couch Potato" strategy is that you _set it and forget it_, then revisit once a year to rebalance. You are losing out on this benefit by twisting yourself up in knots worrying over the latest pronouncements from market pundits. The noise is driving you mad! :disillusionment:


----------



## Belguy

In the middle of a lost decade for investors, more sluggishness ahead:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/art...utlook-2013-finding-success-in-a-risky-market


----------



## Belguy

As the year grinds to a close and all eyes are on the fiscal cliff, how have things been evolving in Europe? Is the ongoing situation there apt to adversely affect equity markets in 2013? Will there be more rioting in the streets or is the worst behind us?


----------



## thenegotiator

Belguy said:


> As the year grinds to a close and all eyes are on the fiscal cliff, how have things been evolving in Europe? Is the ongoing situation there apt to adversely affect equity markets in 2013? Will there be more rioting in the streets or is the worst behind us?


who cares about Europe now?
I am looking at ASIA lol.
SHORT the Shanghai Index.
Short facebook.
long US dollar
but nevertheless keeping my Uranium stocks lol.

by the way have they priced in today a no deal?
who knows and who cares ?
it is buy buy buy ..... sell selll selll
u never know when they will use more of it:biggrin:


I CANNOT WAIT FOR OBAMA'S WORDS OF WISDOM COMING OUT SHORTLY AFTER HE CAME BACK FROM HAWAII , INTERRUPTING HIS SACRED HOLIDAYS LOL


----------



## webber22

It's been said before but Belguy is indeed fade material
If people had listened last fall when the thread was started - and they had sold off in a panic - they would have missed out on BIG gains in Europe and the US.....

*DAX 30 index posts biggest yearly gain since 2003*
COPENHAGEN (MarketWatch) -- Germany's DAX 30 index DX-DAX posted its biggest yearly gain in nine years on Friday, even as the index closed out the day 0.6% lower at 7,612.39. The German index, which is shut for trading on Monday, was up 29% on the year, the best performance since 2003, when the index settled the year 37% higher. Other European indexes also put in the last trading day of the year, with Italy's FTSE MIB index XX:FTSEMIB up 7.8% on a yearly basis and Spain's IBEX 35 index XX:IBEX down 5.1%


----------



## Belguy

Go figure!! It is just further proof, if you still needed any, that trying to time the market is a mug's game. In any case, none of this affected my decision making. I just stick to my target asset allocation and hold on to my portfolio of mostly low fee, broad-based ETF's and trade only for rebalancing purposes.:sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping:


----------



## thenegotiator

Belguy said:


> Go figure!! It is just further proof, if you still needed any, that trying to time the market is a mug's game. In any case, none of this affected my decision making. I just stick to my target asset allocation and hold on to my portfolio of mostly low fee, broad-based ETF's and trade only for rebalancing purposes
> 
> u should have placed ur money in taiwan then.
> a lofty 37% return on the year.
> i will keep living my ... what u calll TIMING life.
> it is definitely a lot more interesting and much more alive.
> but by all means i do not have a million bux , otherwise i would be living off divvys.
> i am a poor peasant :biggrin:


----------



## webber22

People have wasted a piece of their life on this 96 page thread that they'll never get back


----------



## Belguy

Here is another sector ETF for market timers although it has done pretty well of late and may be ready to slow down:

http://guggenheiminvestments.com/products/etf/cut/performance


----------



## webber22

I've already made my money off of your lost decade Europe thread. Get back to the fiscal cliff one and close this one out.


----------



## Toronto.gal

LOL, but yes, perhaps it's time to leave EU behind & open *'Cuba and the Potential Decade'* :biggrin: [picture an easing or lifting of the embargo in the future].

*Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. Embargo*
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/w...t-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 

*With Cuba cautiously introducing free-market changes, new economic bonds between Cuba and the United States have formed, creating new possibilities and challenges — and renewing a complicated debate over Washington’s 50-year-old trade embargo, which prohibits the most basic business dealings across the 90 miles separating Cuba from the United States.*
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/cuba/index.html


----------



## Toronto.gal

webber22 said:


> People have wasted a piece of their life on this 96 page thread that they'll never get back


Speak for yourself webber! In fact, you have wasted your time picking on some folks here that you'll 'never get back', lol.

It was free entertainment with some very good posts as well, and much better than most of what's on t.v.


----------



## Belguy

So, that's one negative from webber22:frown:and one positive from Toronto.gal:encouragement:

It's a tie!!:ambivalence:


----------



## mrPPincer

Belguy said:


> So, that's one negative from webber22:frown:and one positive from Toronto.gal:encouragement:
> 
> It's a tie!!:ambivalence:


Ok then, it's settled, lets go for 1K posts on this thread ;-)


----------



## sags

Cuba huh.................

Not arguing with the idea that a lifting of the US embargo would be good for Cuba...........but other countries don't have an embargo on Cuba, so why haven't they moved in on these business "opportunities"?

Is everyone waiting around for the Americans to come up with the ideas?


----------



## Toronto.gal

sags said:


> but other countries don't have an embargo on Cuba, so why haven't they moved in on these business "opportunities"?


Obviously it's not just the embargo, but the Cuban government itself that is the more complex issue/headache, and not just for the US. 

Keep in mind that for communist countries, foreign investment is about a lot more than $$$s, but also about economic control.

Do you think it has been easy for anyone the last few decades to do business with the revolutionary Marxist-Leninist Fidel Castro [previous close friend of fellow revolutionary Che Guevara], and now Raúl Castro?

Cuba did not allow foreign capitalism [after it first ended it in 1959] until big friendly Russia had collapsed a mere 21 years ago, and hence so did the big subsidy that Cuba had received from them. 

Who helps subsidize Cuba these days? Hugo Chavez? [who goes to Cuba for cancer treatment for his phobia of being permanently put to sleep by his own doctors in Venezuela]. Or how about Ahmadinejad, who apparently received an honorary doctorate degree in political science at Havana U, earlier this year? 

Anyway, maybe it's time to invest in CCL/RCL should they be allowed passage to Cuba.


----------



## Cal

Its funny how the media never mentions Europe, PIIGS, or anything anymore. To the media it is old news already.

The media is like a bunch of sheep being herded in one direction then another.


----------



## sags

Cal said:


> Its funny how the media never mentions Europe, PIIGS, or anything anymore. To the media it is old news already.
> 
> The media is like a bunch of sheep being herded in one direction then another.


Europe and the US have discovered they can buy their own debt without any of the previously thought consequences of rampant high inflation.

Therefore.................problems solved with a little paper and ink.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Speak for yourself webber! In fact, you have wasted your time picking on some folks here that you'll 'never get back', lol.
> 
> It was free entertainment with some very good posts as well, and much better than most of what's on t.v.


+10 for this statement.

by the way i luv free entertainment :encouragement:
i am actually not wasting anytime right now.
why?
i am not trading for crying out loud.
u know i am ur biggest fan right?:encouragement:


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Obviously it's not just the embargo, but the Cuban government itself that is the more complex issue/headache, and not just for the US.
> 
> Keep in mind that for communist countries, foreign investment is about a lot more than $$$s, but also about economic control.
> 
> Do you think it has been easy for anyone the last few decades to do business with the revolutionary Marxist-Leninist Fidel Castro [previous close friend of fellow revolutionary Che Guevara], and now Raúl Castro?
> 
> Cuba did not allow foreign capitalism [after it first ended it in 1959] until big friendly Russia had collapsed a mere 21 years ago, and hence so did the big subsidy that Cuba had received from them.
> 
> Who helps subsidize Cuba these days? Hugo Chavez? [who goes to Cuba for cancer treatment for his phobia of being permanently put to sleep by his own doctors in Venezuela]. Or how about Ahmadinejad, who apparently received an honorary doctorate degree in political science at Havana U, earlier this year?
> 
> Anyway, maybe it's time to invest in CCL/RCL should they be allowed passage to Cuba.


forget about the companies .
just the vehicles themselves are worth millions if recouped.
they are relics:biggrin:.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> just the vehicles themselves are worth millions if recouped.


Indeed! 

No shortage of vintage cars in Cuba; in fact, it had been the best part of our vacation there some years ago.

'Under current law [as of 2011], they can only freely buy and sell cars that were on the road in Cuba before Fidel Castro's 1959 Revolution.'

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/04/21/cuba.classic.cars/index.html

Like this classic:









Or maybe a vintage Russian Lada is more your style. :biggrin:


----------



## HaroldCrump

Is that Che Guevara poster in the background?
Cool !
_el Che vive_


----------



## Toronto.gal

Si Harold, that's the famous monochrome graphic of Elche, and btw, as you surely may have guessed, the graphic posting had been no coincidence; it's just that I didn't want to be completely off the EU topic.  [Che, real name: Ernesto Guevara Lynch, had Irish/Spanish roots]. 

Perhaps I should clarify that I do not idolize/romanticise such a figure; quite the opposite. :rolleyes2: 

***********

*2012 in charts:*










http://www.economist.com/news/finan...y?zid=307&ah=5e80419d1bc9821ebe173f4f0f060a07


----------



## sags

Wasn't it due to the rampant pillaging of Cuba, by capitalists and gangsters who practically owned everything in the country, that drove the people to revolution?

The regime was too heavy handed, and turned to hard core Communist Russia for support, but what choice did they have when all the Americans wanted was to take the country back.

Bay of Pigs, attempts on Castro's life, CIA plotting................??

Socialism has it's place, and as one analyst said on a BNN round table the other day..............

With the success of China, and their ability to change and adjust their economy so easily, maybe central planning is a superior concept to free market capitalism.

China is certainly the "lender" and the "buyer", while the US is the "borrower" and the "seller" these days.

Personally, I think Canada has a nice mixture of both.


----------



## HaroldCrump

sags said:


> Wasn't it due to the rampant pillaging of Cuba, by capitalists and gangsters who practically owned everything in the country, that drove the people to revolution?
> The regime was too heavy handed, and turned to hard core Communist Russia for support, but what choice did they have when all the Americans wanted was to take the country back.


Cuba is not, and never has been, communist.
They were always carried by the USSR.
The USSR funded everything in Cuba - from the health care system, the social system, to their defense.
Cuba had no capability whatsoever of ever creating any income or wealth on their own.
They were simply a satellite state for the USSR.

I don't think you can call that socialism.



> With the success of China, and their ability to change and adjust their economy so easily, maybe central planning is a superior concept to free market capitalism.


China is neither socialist nor communist, as defined by the Marxist-Leninist version of those terms.
Most Marxist-Leninists call China a "revisionist" state at best.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revisionism_(Marxism)

IMO, China is not revisionist either - they are simply a state controlled form of Fascism.
The original Fascism was characterized by a dual state and capitalist structure, such as in Mussolini's Italy and Hitler's Third Reich.
Those were totalitarian states centrally planned and controlled by a government, yet had monopolistic corporations that worked closely with the central government.

In the case of China, the monopolistic corporations have been replaced by state controlled enterprises.

The "central planning" that you believe signifies socialism is actually a key feature of Fascist states.

Interestingly for you, sags, both Fascism as well as China style communism is characterized by persecution and complete abolition of any kind of labor movements, incl. unions.
Look back in history and find out what was one of the first things that Adolf Hitler did upon being elected Chancellor - he went after the labor unions and abolished them.
Ironically, his Nazi Party was called the _National Socialist German Workers' Party_.

Now, take one guess what Stalin did right after becoming the Premier of the Communist Party.
Yep, he persecuted all the labor union leaders (the Bolsheviks) and sent them to the nice, comfortable 5-star resorts in the Gulag Labor Camps.
China-style "communism" is not _that_ different from Hitler's Fascism, and neither of them has anything remotely to do with socialism or communism.

So, be careful what you wish for.


----------



## Toronto.gal

sags said:


> *Socialism has it's place*.......


Forget the BNN analyst, how about you, do you even know what you're trying to say with that comment? Have you been to Cuba btw? Have you seen the repression & rigidity in that country? That kind of 'socialism' as you called it, has no place. Quoting Castro, for sure it's not a 'yankee colony'.


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> Cuba is not, and never has been, communist.
> They were always carried by the USSR.
> The USSR funded everything in Cuba - from the health care system, the social system, to their defense.
> Cuba had no capability whatsoever of ever creating any income or wealth on their own.
> They were simply a satellite state for the USSR.
> 
> I don't think you can call that socialism.
> 
> China is neither socialist nor communist, as defined by the Marxist-Leninist version of those terms.
> Most Marxist-Leninists call China a "revisionist" state at best.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revisionism_(Marxism)
> 
> IMO, China is not revisionist either - they are simply a state controlled form of Fascism.
> The original Fascism was characterized by a dual state and capitalist structure, such as in Mussolini's Italy and Hitler's Third Reich.
> Those were totalitarian states centrally planned and controlled by a government, yet had monopolistic corporations that worked closely with the central government.
> 
> In the case of China, the monopolistic corporations have been replaced by state controlled enterprises.
> 
> The "central planning" that you believe signifies socialism is actually a key feature of Fascist states.
> 
> Interestingly for you, sags, both Fascism as well as China style communism is characterized by persecution and complete abolition of any kind of labor movements, incl. unions.
> Look back in history and find out what was one of the first things that Adolf Hitler did upon being elected Chancellor - he went after the labor unions and abolished them.
> Ironically, his Nazi Party was called the _National Socialist German Workers' Party_.
> 
> Now, take one guess what Stalin did right after becoming the Premier of the Communist Party.
> Yep, he persecuted all the labor union leaders (the Bolsheviks) and sent them to the nice, comfortable 5-star resorts in the Gulag Labor Camps.
> China-style "communism" is not _that_ different from Hitler's Fascism, and neither of them has anything remotely to do with socialism or communism.


+++1. I just had to quote all!

Didn't I say that great posts were written here? 

I hope a certain member is not reading because that's time he'll never get back. :biggrin:


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Indeed!
> 
> No shortage of vintage cars in Cuba; in fact, it had been the best part of our vacation there some years ago.
> 
> 'Under current law [as of 2011], they can only freely buy and sell cars that were on the road in Cuba before Fidel Castro's 1959 Revolution.'
> 
> http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/04/21/cuba.classic.cars/index.html
> 
> Like this classic:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Or maybe a vintage Russian Lada is more your style.



lol
i will pass the "nice" LADA .
not a fan of RUSSIANS as u know it:biggrin:.
I would take the blue vintage above though.
i am with you in regards to Mr . Che Guevara though.
as you know the beaches there are amazing:chuncky:


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Forget the BNN analyst, how about you, do you even know what you're trying to say with that comment? Have you been to Cuba btw? Have you seen the repression & rigidity in that country? That kind of 'socialism' as you called it, has no place. Quoting Castro, for sure it's not a 'yankee colony'.


and that is why I luv this amazing lady here.
straight to the point .
like an arrow .
never misses.
keep it up.
some people need to read more and since we are in the age of digital revolution maybe an ereader would enhance some people's knowledge about things and facts.
anytime , any day I would put my money together with urs and maybe we both can retire before everyone here.
keep it up:encouragement:


----------



## sags

I would still maintain that socialism does have it's place.

Universal health care, subsidized day care, subsidized education........are but a few examples of programs Canadians support which had their roots in socialism.


----------



## HaroldCrump

sags said:


> Universal health care, subsidized day care, subsidized education........are but a few examples of programs Canadians support which had their roots in socialism.


These "programs" have nothing to do with socialism - these are all pseudo-welfare programs, characteristics of nanny states like the PIIGS.

Socialism is a term perhaps as used (abused) as capitalism, freedom, etc.
Socialism simply means social ownership of capital and other means of production.

Under classical capitalism, means of production are privately owned; under socialism, capital is owned by the society (hence, socialism) and therefore the asset allocation is not determined by profitability.

Be aware that under socialism, there is no profit, no private ownerhip of land, factories, corporations, etc.
Think of the Soviet communes - that is socialism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collectivization_in_the_Soviet_Union

Do not confuse nanny welfare states with socialism.

The trouble with the type of welfare programs you so wistfully wish for is that the govt. never knows when to stop.
Where does it end?


----------



## Toronto.gal

sags said:


> Universal health care, subsidized day care, subsidized education........are but a few examples of programs Canadians support which had their roots in socialism.


Aha, so I had been right that you had compared Canada to Cuba. :rolleyes2:

I had edited my prior response with respect to this point thinking that I had simply misunderstood you. 

Anyway, don't think you truly understand communism/socialism, etc., so we'll have to agree to disagree, but you must surely be familiar with some [if not all] of the undemocratic methods in Cuba [please do not compare those to Canada].

You did not answer me whether you have ever been to Cuba? Do you know that internet service in Cuba is pretty much nonexistent? [even rare at top hotels].

*TN:* yea, a deadly arrow, lol.


----------



## kcowan

HaroldCrump said:


> Do not confuse nanny welfare states with socialism.
> 
> The trouble with the type of welfare programs you so wistfully wish for is that the govt. never knows when to stop.
> Where does it end?


That is the real problem. When Paul Martin wanted to institute a national daycare program, I decided that they had had enough. Lucky for me a majority of voters felt the same.


----------



## Belguy

2013 to be a more difficult year economically than 2012 for Germans:

http://www.dw.de/chancellor-angela-merkels-new-years-address/a-16488619


----------



## namelessone

Belguy, TSX returned 7% including dividend this year. It's way better than 1.35% "high interest" saving account. Why complain?


----------



## sags

This is the original quote regarding socialism...........

_Socialism has it's place, and as one analyst said on a BNN round table the other day..............

With the success of China, and their ability to change and adjust their economy so easily, maybe central planning is a superior concept to free market capitalism.

China is certainly the "lender" and the "buyer", while the US is the "borrower" and the "seller" these days.

*Personally, I think Canada has a nice mixture of both.* _

The discussion was solely on the economic advantages of central planning when compared to the political gridlock in the US.

The discussion on the dark, non economic side of a political system, by whatever given name, wasn't part of the content.

In answer to the question if I had ever been to Cuba, which is probably irrelevant given that the only capacity I could visit there is as a tourist with limited access to information or to interviewing anyone regarding the political situation in Cuba.............the answer is no.

Several years ago, I did create a rudimentary travel and information website on Cuba...........during which I did learn a modicum of information on the country, although I chose not to include most of the history and politics of Cuba in the website content.

Like many other projects, it has since been languishing without proper maintenance.

http://www.cuba-travel-facts.blogspot.ca/


----------



## sags

Harold.........

I respect your far superior knowledge on the different systems of government, than my own limited understanding.

But in the narrowest of views, which is the ability of a government to direct or intervene in the economy of the country..........

How much different is the Chinese "central planning" than our own PM Harper deciding what is going to happen and his MPs falling into line?

Really narrow band, I understand..........but there are similarities, and those similarities allow Canada to avoid the kind of partisanship that is crippling the US government's ability to govern.


----------



## Belguy

Democracy? What democracy?? We elect our local representative, send him or her to Ottawa and they vote the way that their leader tells them to vote, the electors' wishes be damned.

Live free or die!!:frown::grumpy::sour::disgust:

Oh, and Happy New Year!!!


----------



## Miser

Belguy said:


> Democracy? What democracy?? We elect our local representative, send him or her to Ottawa and they vote the way that their leader tells them to vote, the electors' wishes be damned.
> 
> Live free or die!!:frown::grumpy::sour::disgust:
> 
> Oh, and Happy New Year!!!


I totally agree.
Democracy is a one day event in Canada.
Your elected rep. bows to the PM or is gone!
All parties.....I hate our political system.


----------



## thenegotiator

soooooo are we ready to rumble?:biggrin:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...iling-euro-crisis-threaten-global-growth.html

the african countries will make sure that they continue on a sustainable strong macroeconomic frameworks.

by the way the govt reached the debt ceiling ... on dec/31 and is working on "extra ordinary measures"
this is just great.
lets load up on equities till our hands catch on fire.
fantastic.
lets buy and hold and as Belguy says prosper?


----------



## Belguy

German GDP drops as Europe moves from deep recession towards depression:

http://business.financialpost.com/2...n-3-years-as-crisis-hits-eurozone-powerhouse/

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...europe-is-heading-into-an-economic-depression


----------



## thenegotiator

Belguy said:


> German GDP drops as Europe moves from deep recession towards depression:
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/2...n-3-years-as-crisis-hits-eurozone-powerhouse/
> 
> http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...europe-is-heading-into-an-economic-depression


well
a round of destruction is a coming right?:rolleyes2:


----------



## sags

Europe is a good example of what happens when austerity measures are applied to consumer driven economies. 

The brakes can't be applied full force to reverse decades of spending, when the whole economy is built on spending.

Economies depend on two things. Money and the velocity of the money. If money is printed to simply pool in the hands of the banks and the wealthy.........there is no stimulus affect. This is happening in the US as well. Trillions spent and not much to show for it..............because the money had no velocity.

China had a stimulus package as well, but they chose a different solution. They gave the money directly to the people, in the form of cash disbursements or vouchers to purchase items made in China. It stimulated the economy..........provided jobs.........and was much more affective than the austerity measures favored by western nations.

That kind of solution is a problem for western nations that have little manufacturing. The consumer would have to spend the money buying goods from another country.......which would be of little support for the domestic economy. It could be done in some sectors though........and may encourage companies to manufacture at home, in order to qualify for consumer purchases.

Reckless spending has to be controlled, but should be planned over a long period of time, with as little damage to fragile economies as possible.

Right wing politicians and their focus groups hold cutting government revenues at the expense of program support as the holy grail, but fail to provide one concrete example of downsizing to prosperity.

Years ago, Ireland........The Celtic Tiger.........was held up as the perfect mix of a corporate friendly environment, but failed miserably. The businesses are gone and despair was left in their wake.

Maybe there is a solution..........perhaps one that will take 50 years to resolve, but austerity isn't going to be it.

Soon European politicians are faced with a grim choice.

Continue punishing their citizens with severe austerity measures that are devastating their economies............to save unknown debt holders from losses,............ or default on the debt and start over.

I think default is the likely choice...........sooner or later.


----------



## scomac

Excellent post sags! :encouragement:


----------



## zylon

*Nigel Farage - Jan 16*


there's nothing to worry about
nothing to see here, move along, crisis over
pressure from the markets has eased for now
the champagne is still flowing
the chauffeur driven cars are shiny
salaries and expenses are attractive
everything is rosy in the EU garden

But that's only the half of it ....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrEIXaf-Um0


----------



## webber22

Sometimes politicians are nothing but hot air ... eaceful:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJQoxdSFTJ0


----------



## zylon

Haha! good one *webber *


----------



## dogcom

Lagarde of the IMF seems to be raising a stink about the US debt ceiling saying it will be a disaster if it is not done.

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/IMF-Lagarde-US-Debt-Ceiling/2013/01/17/id/471951


----------



## Belguy

Despite the mess in Europe, the Dow has gained 112% since March of 2009!!

It's a good thing that I'm not the type to say "I told you so!!"

Don't say that I didn't warn you!!!:highly_amused::redface::cool2::congratulatory:

At least I never sold anything out of fear that the markets would tank.

Buy, hold, and prosper. 

We're in the money now!!!

Dow is poised to reach it's highest level EVER!!!


----------



## webber22

But GREED is peaking

Like the comment says, Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.
I'll wait till you tally up your YTD positive returns before I sell off :courage:


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## Belguy

I am not a market timer and therefore I never "sell off". I retain my asset allocation through all market conditions (and hope for the best!).:encouragement::hopelessness::cower:eaceful:


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## thenegotiator

Belguy said:


> Despite the mess in Europe, the Dow has gained 112% since March of 2009!!
> 
> It's a good thing that I'm not the type to say "I told you so!!"
> 
> Don't say that I didn't warn you!
> 
> At least I never sold anything out of fear that the markets would tank.
> 
> Buy, hold, and prosper.
> 
> We're in the money now!!!
> 
> Dow is poised to reach it's highest level EVER!!!


but of course we are.
and then......

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/imf-s-lagarde-saya-u-s-leading-economic-role-at-stake.html

as if the 3 months will pass and all the politicians will seat down before that, behave while singing kumbaya and the spx will hit 1700 by year's end right?
oh i forgot to say that oil will hit 150 bux a barrel in the sumer .
why?
well that is a secret... do not tell anyone ok?:encouragement:


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## namelessone

My portfolio is up 5.8% YTD. It's very satisfying that less than 1 month gross $ gain is more than last year's gain.

75% CAD+ 25% USD buy and hold individual stocks.


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## thenegotiator

^
u do realize that the earnings estimates in all us companies were slashed and very lowballed right?
and u have the nicest nanny on earth.... the fed
maybe the winners should take some profits off the table?
just a regular joe thought.
GL anyway


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## namelessone

thenegotiator said:


> ^
> u do realize that the earnings estimates in all us companies were slashed and very lowballed right?
> and u have the nicest nanny on earth.... the fed
> maybe the winners should take some profits off the table?
> just a regular joe thought.
> GL anyway


IMHO,selling winners and keeping losers is not very smart . Sometimes, winners keep winning for years go come. Losers keep losing for years to come. 
It seems most of my positions are safe from target price reduction from the street. The only stock that suffered a bit is BDT. I am not worried about it's long term prospect so there's no point to sell. 
Most of my US positions are value stocks. They went down so much there's no much room to go down. 
The rest of US positionss are long term growth stocks. I don't see any price reduction or they're react quickly since they're fairly valued stocks. 

The most powerful sentence that I put into my investment strategy is " It's better than pay a fair price for a superior business than pay a cheap price for a mediocre business. " 
I gradually put this to work since last year and it's working nicely.


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## thenegotiator

since i am not a stock holder but a trader and not knowing what u hold it makes things difficult to see what is what.
i am holding one stock ... one etf and short in a few things besides Facebook and the spx.
therefore if u see value in what u hold by all means keep it.
if ur time horizon is 5-10 years it would be a shame to shuffle things around too much.
i am not a good parameter to give an opinion on buy and hold strategies.
yet again a round of destruction is coming anyway.
GL


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## kcowan

Of the people willing to guess at the future, here are the following consensus estimates for YE2013 by CMF participants:
DOW: +5.97%
TSX: +0.73%
GOLD: +2.64%
OIL: +1.10%
CAD: -1.43%
compared to YE 2012.


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## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. the Dow has gained 112% since March of 2009!!
> 2. Don't say that I didn't warn you!!!:highly_amused:
> 3. At least I never sold anything out of fear that the markets would tank.












BUT:

*1. *The key word there is *'since'.* But what about before March/09, where was the Dow then?

- Oct./2007 = 14,000+ [highest]
*- Jan./2008 = 13,000+* [the decline was already visible for those paying attention to what was happening in the US housing market]
- March/09 = 6,547.05/ [12 year low & when pretty much everything bottomed]

Even by the time I bought my 1st stock on Oct.30/09, things had improved significantly already; around 10,000 I believe [had I entered just 6 months sooner....well, I didn't].

So yes, it may be up 112% *since the low of 6,547*

*2.* Don't say we didn't warn you as well. When did you buy? I mean following March/09, did you take advantage of any of those incredible [CDN] banks & other bargains?!

*3.* For sure there was panic selling, who could blame them; after all, it was not a market anyone had seen before, at least not in the last few decades. As well, some may have sold & bought at much cheaper prices.

You did not sell, but given your age, maybe you should have, not in 09, but in 07/08 [when you were 64, as you're now 69]. Did you sell anything when the Dow was at its highest, or did you just do your annual balance?


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## Belguy

I have never sold except for rebalancing purposes but I did adjust my asset allocation last year by taking 10 per cent out of equities and putting it in a HISA because I am exiting the accumulation stage and entering the preservation stage of my investing career.

Now, I am considering reducing my equity allocation further to 40 per cent from 50 per cent but where should I move the proceeds to is the difficult question at this time.

Any suggestions?

My ultimate equity allocation is 30 per cent in my old age. But where should my other 70 per cent be allocated?


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## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> Now, *I am considering reducing* my equity allocation further to 40 per cent from 50 per cent


You should not just be 'considering' it, but most definitely reducing it [110 - 70 = 40], and especially since EU & other volatile issues will be on your mind, just do what's necessary to avoid hiding under the bed as often as u have done thus far. 

No other advice from me, as you only respect the couch potatoes here.


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## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> BUT:
> 
> *1. *The key word there is *'since'.* But what about before March/09, where was the Dow then?
> 
> - Oct./2007 = 14,000+ [highest]
> *- Jan./2008 = 13,000+* [the decline was already visible for those paying attention to what was happening in the US housing market]
> - March/09 = 6,547.05/ [12 year low & when pretty much everything bottomed]
> 
> Even by the time I bought my 1st stock on Oct.30/09, things had improved significantly already; around 10,000 I believe [had I entered just 6 months sooner....well, I didn't].
> 
> So yes, it may be up 112% *since the low of 6,547*
> 
> *2.* Don't say we didn't warn you as well. When did you buy? I mean following March/09, did you take advantage of any of those incredible [CDN] banks & other bargains?!
> 
> *3.* For sure there was panic selling, who could blame them; after all, it was not a market anyone had seen before, at least not in the last few decades. As well, some may have sold & bought at much cheaper prices.
> 
> You did not sell, but given your age, maybe you should have, not in 09, but in 07/08 [when you were 64, as you're now 69]. Did you sell anything when the Dow was at its highest, or did you just do your annual balance?





Toronto.gal said:


> You should not just be 'considering' it, but most definitely reducing it [110 - 70 = 40], and especially since EU & other volatile issues will be on your mind, just do what's necessary to avoid hiding under the bed as often as u have done thus far.
> 
> No other advice from me, as you only respect the couch potatoes here.




this is a trader's/investor mind.
solid post.
cheers.
I am just a trader .
point being atm ..... Cash or short certain things is king.
it is written on the wall that this mkt will have a round of destruction.
what sectors ?
all of them probably .
some more than others.
just like AAPl one would be a complete idiot by not deleveraging solidly at these levels.
Again .... maybe .... another " SoMetImeS " good post.
I believe that T.gal and i amongst others here have mentioned this before.

By the way AGE has nothing to do with capability of doing things.
Belguy.... u seem to be very well and healthy.


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## Toronto.gal

It's great that we have left the ugly figures of 2009, which was -53.8% from the high of 14,164, reached in 07. But the current 13,895.98 as of last Friday, is just a return to what was in early 2008.


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## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> It's great that we have left the ugly figures of 2009, which was -53.8% from the high of 14,164, reached in 07. But the current 13,895.98 as of last Friday, is just a return to what was in early 2008.


interesting observation. and yet .... what is the definition of insanity?....
i am sure you do know it right?
i learned it the hard way in this short term of trading experience.
still learning because u cannot ever learn enough in anything in life.
have a nice and warm week:encouragement:


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## kcowan

thenegotiator said:


> By the way AGE has nothing to do with capability of doing things.
> Belguy.... u seem to be very well and healthy.


And he got rich in the meltdown because he bought into equities during the market swoon in 2009 and has made out like a bandit since. Just classic couch potato rebalancing.

(And all those gains without even thinking! Although I think he may be vulnerable to heart conditions. He worries too much.)


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## Toronto.gal

kcowan said:


> 1. he got rich in the meltdown because he bought into equities during the market swoon in 2009 and has made out like a bandit since.
> 2. And all those gains without even thinking!
> 3. He worries too much.


*1.* I joined the forum in 2010, and since then, I don't recall ever hearing about his bargain buys; only that Mr. Belguy never sells.

*2.* Well, it did take some bravery & thinking if he bought in early 09, and so he was a good 'bandit', lol. Good for him!

*3.* And/or what is aka: attention, and we do give that to him!


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## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* I joined the forum in 2010, and since then, I don't recall ever hearing about his bargain buys; only that Mr. Belguy never sells.
> 
> *2.* Well, it did take some bravery & thinking if he bought in early 09, and so he was a good 'bandit', lol. Good for him!
> 
> *3.* And/or what is aka: attention, and we do give that to him!


u always make me pay attn to ur posts.
i do not even know when does Belguy trades what does he trade and when does he rebalance:biggrin:


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## Belguy

I usually rebalance in January but only if my target allocations get seriously out of whack.

I can't remember when I even started investing but the first thing that I bought was my employer's stock. After several years of it basically going nowhere fast, I sold most of it and was largely out of the market until the early 90's when I invested primarily in managed mutual funds until I caught on to the futility of going that route. I sold those and started purchasing index products and ETF's several years ago through a discount brokerage and have stayed invested that way ever since. It suits me and my personality and interests and have never found myself interested in the analysis necessary to invest in individual stocks but to each his own.

Most of my investments are in RRSP's which I will soon have to convert to RIF's and start withdrawals. That will be a new learning curve for me, especially when it comes to calculating the taxes owing on the withdrawals---ugh!!!:upset::frown::frown-new:


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## Sampson

Toronto.gal said:


> *2.* Well, it did take some bravery & thinking if he bought in early 09, and so he was a good 'bandit', lol. Good for him!


This is only implied by his transparent rebalancing strategy. If I remember correctly, he had a 60:40 or 70:30 equity:bond allocation.

Jan 2009 would have slaughtered the equities (he uses indexes almost exclusively, with exception of some RBC precious metals fund). Portfolio should have taken a 20% hit, but rebalancing bonds into the equities at that time should have resulted in those monies doubling and overall portfolio value increase by 15-20% as of now.

That's how he would have made out if he stuck with the plan.

Pretty darned good returns for any portfolio during that period, in theory.


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## Belguy

Oh, and by the way, don't forget to keep an eye on what is happening in Europe.

http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/Oil-Equities-Europe-Woes/2013/02/04/id/488803

:hopelessness::cower::frown::eek2:


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## thenegotiator

Belguy said:


> Oh, and by the way, don't forget to keep an eye on what is happening in Europe.
> 
> http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/Oil-Equities-Europe-Woes/2013/02/04/id/488803
> 
> 
> 
> no kidding belguy.
> how about keeping an eye after all the earnings season is over in the U.s?
> have u rebalanced yet?
> that is what u should ask urself.
> i forgot ur motto ,... buy hold and prosper.:biggrin:
> sorry for my alzheimers.:rolleyes2:


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## Belguy

I have been working on my annual January rebalancing and am even changing some of my investments to lower fee versions which I should have had in the first place.


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## Toronto.gal

Mama mia, where are you Belguy? 

Isn't the EU more important than your rebalancing & taxes right now?


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## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Mama mia, where are you Belguy?
> 
> Isn't the EU more important than your rebalancing & taxes right now?


i think that he is in a hurry to rebalance it.:rolleyes2:


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## Belguy

Hi, I am under the bed worrying again--still--about Europe.:hopelessness::cower::eek2:

If Cyprus is such a big deal, imagine what a pickle we would be in if the same thing happened in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, France etc. etc.

They keep reassuring us that everything is under control but is it really?


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## mrPPincer

Hi Belguy, how come we only hear from you when it's time to hide under the bed? Is that where you keep the computer?


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## Cal

Belguy...think of this as cypress pulling off the bandaid. It is quick, and it hurts, then it is over with. Unlike some of the other countries where austerity measures will go on for years, and cause very slow growth. Cypress has a very small market, and it would be difficult for it to get out of their situation via growth of the economy.


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## kcowan

Current 5-yr GIC rates for $150k = 10% in Cyprus (and tax free too). Anyone want to bet this rate will be going up?


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## SpIcEz

kcowan said:


> Current 5-yr GIC rates for $150k = 10% in Cyprus (and tax free too). Anyone want to bet this rate will be going up?




I'm not sure if you saw this, but its pretty scary. "liquidfinance" posted it in the Cyprus thread: http://www.naturaltherapycenter.com/blog/?p=291


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## Belguy

Europe--the gift that just keeps on giving!!!:upset::frown::eek2::grumpy:


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## Toronto.gal

LOL. :biggrin:










Spring is just around the corner! :encouragement:


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## Nemo2

Toronto.gal said:


> Spring is just around the corner! :encouragement:


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## Toronto.gal

LOL, it was snowing here last night as well.

But Nemo, I did *not* say Spring is here, I said it's around the corner, no?. :chuncky:


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## Nemo2

Toronto.gal said:


> LOL, it was snowing here last night as well.
> 
> But Nemo, I did *not* say Spring is here, I said it's around the corner, no?. :chuncky:


And the pic I posted says it's on it's way.........which, I'd say, equates to "Just around the corner", (depending, of course, on how far away the 'corner' is from where one is located). :chuncky:


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