# BlackBerry (BB.TO, BBRY), previously Research in Motion, Ltd. (RIM.TO, RIMM)



## boycapitalist

Research In Motion has just recently hit its 52 week low, 53.51. It closed today at 54.84. I believe it was in the low 70's in April. I'm interested to know what you guys think about this company.....undervalued?...a good buy?....too volatile?


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## seven3

I personally don't think RIM is a good buy at all. Apple and android phones have so much momentum it will be hard to stop. RIM may be well established in the enterprise market but I feel their valuation already reflects that part of the business (and may be too expensive at that!)

Several hard-core blackberry users here at work have switched or are planning on switching to iPhones. I've also noticed more and more iPhone users at client sites (eating into RIM core market share).

I wouldn't buy RIM...I'd go short if I had the means (and guts).

In general, evaluating a stock based on where it's share price "was" is dangerous. The outlook in my opinion is not good for this one...


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## Dr_V

I haven't read the annual, but have briefly perused some of the basic fundamental stats. The company appears to have a number of things going "right" -- no debt, and a very impressive track record of high RoE and net profit margins.

At 4.0x, it's trading at too high a multiple of book value for my likes. (And it's nearly ~6.0x tangible book.) They operated in a very competitive segment where increased pressure from competitors could squeeze profit margins. Anyway ... not a stock for me.

(I have a hunch that RIM could be bought out by Microsoft, Nokia, or Sony at some point, assuming that the government allows such a takeover. But I'm not willing to stake my money on this.)


K.


_Aside: As a Canadian who works in high-tech, I personally want RIM to succeed, because I think that it's a good thing for the city of Waterloo, the province of Ontario, and the country as a whole. It attracts bright minds and good talent, and is one of very few high-tech Canadian companies which operates on a truly international stage._


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## Potato

I like it as an investment, but as Dr. V points out, it doesn't have a lot of safety there in valuation.

I think the fears of competition are overblown to some extent: on the one hand, they're a fixture in the smartphone market, and BBM gives them some loyalty (and network effect). They're losing market share, but the overall smartphone market is growing so big and so fast that in an absolute sense they're still putting out respectable growth, and should for years to come. On the other hand, consumer tastes can be very fickle. I see the girls around here all getting BBs now -- the iphone was popular since it was the cool toy that was both a phone and an ipod and a touch-screen video game thingamagig, and better for media/websurfing... but it's not a particularly good phone, and it's not great for lots of texting.

They're getting down to very respectable P/Es, but so much depends on future earnings, so definitely a fair bit of speculation involved.

I did buy some in the mid-60's, and may buy a bit more at these levels, but all told I'm only weakly positive on it.


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## the-royal-mail

Another aside: Don't forget that the Queen will be visiting RIM next week!


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## CyrusWalker

Grrrrreat Pooost!


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## CanadianCapitalist

Dr_V said:


> Aside: As a Canadian who works in high-tech, I personally want RIM to succeed, because I think that it's a good thing for the city of Waterloo, the province of Ontario, and the country as a whole. It attracts bright minds and good talent, and is one of very few high-tech Canadian companies which operates on a truly international stage.


I agree. And for that reason, I'd be very unhappy if RIM were bought out by Microsoft or Nokia or whomever. Shareholders, of whom I'm not one, might have a different opinion but we need high-tech companies headquartered right here in Canada. Nortel is gone. Corel is a shell of its old self. Newbridge, Cognos and many others have been taken out. Today, we've pretty only got RIM and not much else.


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## m3s

Potato said:


> On the other hand, consumer tastes can be very fickle. I see the girls around here all getting BBs now -- the iphone was popular since it was the cool toy that was both a phone and an ipod and a touch-screen video game thingamagig, and better for media/websurfing... but it's not a particularly good phone, and it's not great for lots of texting.


Haha yea pretty much sums it up BB is good for girls who only text/talk

Anyone who wants a computer in their hand gets far more real capability with the iPhone. It has far more key sensors and integrates them with the apps, and a bigger screen with the most intuitive/responsive touch

The latest iPhone pretty much takes away all BB advantage for work email except the physical keyboard. I use them both on a daily basis and once you get used to the touch keyboard I find it faster and far more relaxed, not to mention quiet. I actually notice when anyone uses the iPhone they lay back or sit naturally and when someone uses a BB they always hunch over. I can type easily with 1 hand on a iPhone or in a rush with 2.


I am constantly amazed by the iPhone and so are people around me who all carry work BB. For example during the G8/G20 I used it to instantly make radar shadow calculations using an app that calculates triangulation by pointing the camera to the top of an obstacle. The same app also takes pictures and stamps all this info for future ref including position, alt, bearing, time, angle of elevation/horizon. I could easily design an app specifically for my purpose that takes into account antenna height, areas of interest etc and graph what I want...


I think Google is the best investment today because they have far more growth potential with Android. All they would have to do to convert me is stop letting Apple use their Google maps, voice search, Google local, Gmail, Google finance etc etc. I'm expecting to see Android in cars soon. Apple does make better hardware but it comes with restrictions

I think Android and Apple portable and touch screen devices are in their infancy and the BB text machine is over the hill. IMO RIM is the next Nortel or Corel, I would sell soon


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## brad

mode3sour said:


> Anyone who wants a computer in their hand gets far more real capability with the iPhone.


Having used a few "not so smart" phones I would agree in general, but keep in mind that RIM has a large corporate installed base and many companies block access to their Exchange servers by all smartphones except Blackberry, primarily for security reasons. My company is one of them -- a lot of employees bought iPhones only to discover that they couldn't use them to get their corporate e-mail, or even connect to the VPN. Despite petitions and pleas to the IT department, the lockdown remains in place and they show no sign of changing their minds.

This situation could change as Apple addresses whatever perceived security and compatibility concerns that IT security officers are worried about with the iPhone (same goes for Google/Android -- we can't even use Google Docs in my company as they have it blocked for security reasons), but I still think BB is going to be popular among corporate users for quite some time to come. A lot of my coworkers carry a BB for work and an iPhone for everything else.


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## m3s

brad said:


> This situation could change as Apple addresses whatever perceived security and compatibility concerns that IT security officers are worried about with the iPhone. I still think BB is going to be popular among corporate users for quite some time to come. A lot of my coworkers carry a BB for work and an iPhone for everything else.


Yes I agree the perceived security concerns will be there for a while yet. I also agree a lot of people will end up carrying 2 devices as I do, unless they made an OS that can swap from work to personal and a way to split the bill. But I'm sure they're happy selling 2 devices to everyone (consumerism/capitalism at its best)


The thing is the business market is pretty much full of BB already - many hip companies may switch to Apple/Android as time goes on. The personal market has a lot of BB as well but they stand to lose a lot here IMO. So maybe RIM won't tank for awhile but I won't put my money in them


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## brad

mode3sour said:


> unless they made an OS that can swap from work to personal and a way to split the bill.


Actually the Nokia E71 (the phone I currently use) does this, although it doesn't provide a way to split the bill of course. You can choose work mode or personal mode, and you customize your applications set, appearances, etc. for each mode. It's a pretty cool feature.


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## andrewf

mode3sour said:


> IMO RIM is the next Nortel or Corel, I would sell soon


One key difference: RIM is the industry leader in a growing market and makes very large profits. Nortel was a house of cards and Corel was going up against much larger, better capitalized competitors.


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## m3s

andrewf said:


> One key difference: RIM is the industry leader in a growing market and makes very large profits.


"is" and "makes" are present tense, just saying. Only time will tell but I don't think RIM is any different than other Canadian tech unfortunately


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## kcowan

They have their slider model that should compete with iPhone and Droid. I think the key to their continued success will be how much they can appeal to the carriers to make money for them. AT&T is leaving exclusive status with Apple and Verfizon is signing on. But AT&T has also walked away from their cheap data plan.

I think it is a crap shoot. So I do not hold their stock. I have held Apple since it was $8. Although I sold off half of it back at $75 the first time.


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## CanadianCapitalist

RIM is close to 52-week lows again and it is not often that you'll find fast-growing companies selling at a p/e of less than 15 (net of cash). I personally don't see corporate clients switching over to competing products anytime soon. Is the market focusing too much on the negatives and not enough on the compelling value proposition?

FD: I don't own RIM directly. Just curious as to your opinions.


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## Sampson

I do own RIM, and am happy to buy at these levels, but my tech allocations are all up to where they should be.

My personal opinion is that despite the growth opportunities in SE Asia and other emerging markets, investors have begun to write off the company as an aging tech company where cash flow will continue to be strong, but the explosive growth will/has subsided (sort of like Microsoft).

I've always found these transition/maturation periods rather awkward because these companies don't pay a dividend, as you point out, the market is already 'de-valuing' the stock away from traditional tech growth co. P/E's. So as an investor, these stocks can be a bit of a dead horse, they often seem best only to preserve capital (not that this is a bad thing).

I'm a little nervous about Balsille though, I'd like RIM to start paying me a 1-2% dividend, but I think they still believe they are a growth company.


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## m3s

Sampson said:


> I'm a little nervous about Balsille though, I'd like RIM to start paying me a 1-2% dividend, but I think they still believe they are a growth company.


Don't worry they're spending that 2% on R&D for the "Black-pad"


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## davext

Every time the stock is down, it seems to bounce back up, way up! I have no idea on this one. I wasn't impressed by the new phone and it might be too little too late. I feel like I'm 50/50, either buy some puts or calls. lol.


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## MoneyMaker

So what's everyones valuation of the business like? and how much margin of safety would you need to get into this stock?


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## kcowan

I hold AAPL so RIM I just more exposure to the volatility in that sector. I think the current valuation of RIM is just as insane (low) as the current valuation of AAPL (high).

The issues with the UAE et al are more severe than the Torch and Blackpad success.


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## m3s

This article describes my thoughts to a tee



> the people we know who buy BlackBerries buy them because they're cheap, or because their company buys them, or because they still think they need a plastic keyboard.





> everything about it feels half-baked and the opposite of smooth


Rim is the new Palm

And comon.. the Blackpad a year later? Exactly like Palm trying to copy the iPhone after it's too late


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## bltman

mode3sour said:


> This article describes my thoughts to a tee
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rim is the new Palm
> 
> And comon.. the Blackpad a year later? Exactly like Palm trying to copy the iPhone after it's too late


The media always takes the consumer angle on companies that are primarily business customer focused. 

Companies buy Blackberry products because of easy and secure integration with Outlook and the level of control they are able to have over the devices. This is why they are so successfull. 

While we look at the "Blackpad" as a iPad rival, these devices will again likely be designed as business class devices with integration into an enterprise's infrastructure.

That said, RIM's primary problem IMO is trying to build devices (phones and tablets) that would satisfy its corporate user base and also appeal to the consumer looking for an experience similar to iPhone or Android. This is the gap they are having difficulty overcoming. They could very well end up like palm but we have not seen a serious attempt by someone else to crack the enterprise market and until that happens, they are a viable.


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## m3s

Growth is looking pretty slim though. Others have closed the gap on the integration with Outlook afaik, but I agree I do like my BB for that. Still there are companies switching to Android and Apple



> During last year's November quarter -- the last time RIM revealed this stat -- non-enterprise customers represented more than 80% of its new subscribers. Sure, RIM will continue to have its enterprise customers -- those who don't leave for Apple or Android -- but the consumer market is where the growth is.


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## davext

Just picked up some RIM at 49.84. It seems like if the stock goes below this $49 support, it'll drop quite a bit. But if the market rebounds then it should easily get to $57.


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## MoneyMaker

davext said:


> Just picked up some RIM at 49.84. It seems like if the stock goes below this $49 support, it'll drop quite a bit. But if the market rebounds then it should easily get to $57.


So your saying the downside is that "it'll drop *quite* a bit" yet your upside is only 16% from your pickup price? doesn't sound like a safe bet to me

A nice way of valuing RIM would be to just value their NPV of their future cash flows for their enterprise operations only and buy at a discount to that value and assume you'll get the rest such as the blackpad and consumer products for free.. that'd be the ideal margin of safety imo.. i'd use this method in valuing pharma companies as well with their patents


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## Ironwood

RIM is on my watch list, but be careful. There is more negative buzz around RIM than positive vibes, and if they are shut down or restricted in India or anywhere else the bottom could fall out.
Here are the latest analyst views off another investment site, and they are rather mixed.

*DON'T BUY* 49.450 Paul Harris, CFA Very cheap at almost 8X next year's earnings. Make lots of money and lots of free cash flow. Product selling price continues to go down. Was a great enterprise company but didn't make a great product for retail. 2010-08-26 

*HOLD *52.480 Bill Carrigan Chart indicates a double bottom. Historically it is quite far below the 200-day moving average indicating it is drastically oversold. Don't let it go below $45. 2010-08-19 

*TOP PICK *51.900 Brian Acker, CA Model price of $69.35, a 35% upside. Fits his measurement as a value stock. He would try to average in on a systematic basis since it is on a down slope. Could potentially go down to $44 level. 2010-08-17 

*DON'T BUY *51.900 Benj Gallander An interesting company but he would not buy it even at this price. In a very competitive sphere. Have to be weary of companies without a lot of products. But he can see why people like it. 2010-08-17 

*STRONG BUY *53.020 Jamie Horvat Continues to like this name and the growth in the smart phone market globally. Their share globally has been about 30% with the rest of the growth being in North America. Thinks they can work with governments regarding security issues. 2010-08-16 

*WATCH *56.440 Peter Brieger Owns and is seriously considering average in down but a couple of things have to happen but at 10X this year's earnings and about 9X next year's a lot of the problems have been discounted. Try to buy at $50.


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## Belguy

RIM stock was down 26% just in August.

No stock on the Nasdaq did worse!!


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## bbsj

Does any one here think that RIM may be taken over by some one like Microsoft as the price is now very attractive.


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## alphatrader2000

RIMM should have bought palm to grab the proper screen touch technology. What is sad is a company with such a cap cant hire the right people to create a usable touch screen technology. Alas.. it is very disappointing.


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## rookie

i could be proven wrong but the chances are less. IMHO,

RIM is dead, long live RIM

feels bad to say so, but unless they reinvent and come up with something totally new, theres not a lot of hope.


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## nick24

*RIM hits 2 year low*

http://blogs.forbes.com/ericsavitz/...tion-hits-2-year-low-risks-from-apple-icloud/

Not nice! I made a loss way back at $85, but I'm glad I got out when I did!


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## davext

MoneyMaker said:


> So your saying the downside is that "it'll drop *quite* a bit" yet your upside is only 16% from your pickup price? doesn't sound like a safe bet to me
> 
> A nice way of valuing RIM would be to just value their NPV of their future cash flows for their enterprise operations only and buy at a discount to that value and assume you'll get the rest such as the blackpad and consumer products for free.. that'd be the ideal margin of safety imo.. i'd use this method in valuing pharma companies as well with their patents


To be clear here, I set a sell stop just below $49 and sold out on this. The down side was only 1.6% approximately.


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## liquidfinance

Just thinking about RIM and the state of the share price. What a revenues likely to be just from the acquisition of QNX? Is this something people have overlooked?


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## ddkay

No they acquired QNX over a year ago, QNX OS is in the PlayBook but hasn't made it into their smartphones yet


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## liquidfinance

ddkay said:


> No they acquired QNX over a year ago, QNX OS is in the PlayBook but hasn't made it into their smartphones yet


BUt QNX is used in a lot of high end car operating systems. This will be ongoing revenue outside of being used in Phones / PlayBook etc. Just got me thinking. They must licence it to the likes of BMW etc

http://www.qnx.com/company/30ways/


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## ddkay

They bought QNX for a drop-in-the-bucket $200 million. Their biggest expense is still sales and marketing. RIM's market cap is reduced to $19 billion in June 2011 from $83 billion in June 2008. People just don't like their products anymore. Nokia is in the same shoes (2007 $150 billion -> 2011 $23.90 billion) but I think has a little more hope with their MSFT deal.

In other news, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman has told Jim Balsillie that if he "behaves himself and doesn't create any more spectacles and bad publicity for the league", he will eventually get a team.


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## MoreMiles

*Earning coming up.*

I think this stock will go below $30 by next week, June 16, 2011.... earning coming up! There will probably be another major haircut.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/201...n-analysts-mostly-downbeat-ahead-of-earnings/


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## liquidfinance

Earnings at end of play today. How many PB's have been sold? Will we get any update on the release of new models? Will there be any positive news from RIM?


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## Homerhomer

Another bad forecast, I am thinking this will be below 30 before the summer is over.


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## CanadianCapitalist

Research in Motion Revenue Misses, Guidance Ugly

Headline says it all. Stock reported down 14% in after hours.

Perhaps Jim B should spend less time chasing hockey teams and more time on the business.


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## Homerhomer

Homerhomer said:


> Another bad forecast, I am thinking this will be below 30 before the summer is over.


Reading the forecast again I probably should have said it will be in teens before the end of the summer since it's already trading below $30 and the day is not over yet ;-)


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## m3s

QNX is great for programming all the things with little human interface, not known for complex user interfaces such as a smartphone. I've used iDrive and it is the best I've seen (I and most car reviews loathe most car OS's) Based on the mobile OS's though Google or Apple could do better, far better, and iDrive is BMW exclusive... I'd be surprised if neither is planning an iDrive killer targeting mainstream cars. Buying a hockey team isn't exactly good business either imo


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## CanadianCapitalist

Stock down to US$29.99 after hours.


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## HaroldCrump

Is this shaping up to be the next Nortel?


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## ddkay

RIM won't live to see another year at this rate. Job cuts on the horizon, stubborn management won't step down. I called it. RIP. And my condolences to Kitchener-Waterloo.


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## kcowan

Hard to believe it was trading at $148 3 years ago!


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## m3s

kcowan said:


> Hard to believe it was trading at $148 3 years ago!


BB was very innovative device from a decade ago that converged/replaced several devices into one. 4 years ago along came a new device that converged/replaced even more. It's how tech works


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## MoreMiles

MoreMiles said:


> I think this stock will go below $30 by next week, June 16, 2011.... earning coming up! There will probably be another major haircut.
> 
> http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/201...n-analysts-mostly-downbeat-ahead-of-earnings/


One week ago... I predicted this might happen today. Too bad I did not have the guts to short RIMM... or it's 20% profit. Also, I hate making money on people's misery. So I tend to play the long side.


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## gibor365

MoreMiles said:


> One week ago... I predicted this might happen today. Too bad I did not have the guts to short RIMM... or it's 20% profit. Also, I hate making money on people's misery. So I tend to play the long side.


Just curious if RIMM has bottom or it's....another Nortel


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## MoreMiles

gibor said:


> Just curious if RIMM has bottom or it's....another Nortel


I don't think it's bottom yet... just look at Nokia (NOK). It's in single digit now from $40 three years ago. So can RIMM end up like NOK? Maybe... and they don't even have Microsoft Phone OS to save them.

I lost faith in RIMM when they released that dysfunctional Playbook. Did they seriously think it would be a hit? You don't have any intrinsic email / calendar. And you are required to have a Blackberry to tether internet.

If Apple had asked iPhone users to own a MAC... it would never been a hit. It's a very dumb decision thinking that the restriction will force people to buy a Blackberry. I think it simple forces people to give up even to try it.

So Playbook is a no-go. Blackberry is a no-go. It's game over. At least for now until they come up with a brand new innovation.


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## liquidfinance

MoreMiles said:


> And you are required to have a Blackberry to tether internet.


Really? You clearly do not know that much about the device. You can tether any phone with Bluetooth. Using the bridge feature simply enhances the user experience of owning a BlackBerry handset. It also allows you access to the full internet without requiring tethering to be a part of your data plan.

One thing is for sure I think they were smart to go with 7" and whilst I have a lot of praise for the PB it has plenty of shortcomings as well. RIM need to address the issues quickly. I don't own the stock but want them to pull through this. I do not want to be in a world where we are all slaves to Apple & Google. I'm even starting to like Microsoft again


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## gibor365

I don't own RIM stocks and not planning to buy (at least for neat future), but it's very sad that Canadian high tech is dying 
Nortel dead, ATI - dead, Intel Canada - dead, now RIM???? Canada is becoming like some African country - just commodity 

P.S. I don't count banks as real industry, they are crooks who doesn't produce anything and just play with people money


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## Sherlock

If RIM lays off many of its employees I wonder if house prices in KW might go down significantly.


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## Belguy

Sometimes the most promising stocks crash and burn. That's a reason to just invest in the indexes and, these days, even that is scary!!.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rims-slump-deepens/article2063979/


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## KaeJS

I sold out at $54 and told my blackberry loving colleagues at the time "RIM won't even be a company in 5 years."

They all laughed at me and then looked at me like I was an alien when they realized I was serious...



gibor, don't worry. Bell Canada will be next to go bankrupt after RIM.  (Knock on Wood? )

And banking is my favourite industry. To call banks "crooks" is not a well thought out statement.

You can bet your balls people are happy to have banks when their house burns down in an accidental fire. Imagine if all their money was under their mattress? 

And how would anyone buy a house without a bank? Banks provide solutions.

If you manage your finances _properly_ like people _should_ do, then the bank is your best friend.


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## Sherlock

Banks do provide important services but they don't _produce_ anything, if that makes sense. RIM produces blackberries and other things not just for Canada but for the entire world. If you ask someone in another country to name a Canadian company which produces something, chances are they could name RIM, but what other other company is there? Bombardier? There aren't many any more, unfortunately...


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## ddkay

Banks have a pretty simple business model: loan money, collect interest. But it pretty much comes down to squeezing every last penny out of people, and those out of work, and the fiscally irresponsible get hurt the most. When a bank shows its total asset figures the majority of that number is just how much people owe them. The problem has always been that it's difficult to figure out the quality of their loans. A retail investors only resource is the opinion of the credit ratings agencies, and as we learned from the subprime crisis credit agencies are effectively useless because they are paid by the same banks they rate. There's tons of businesses on the TSX Venture exchange that operate on millions of dollars of debt and rarely turn profitable. Most new companies are probably in this group (not being profitable), but tech in particular has avoided the IPO route for financing at all costs. Most hope to build a respectable product and then begin to pitch companies and wait for acquisition. RIM has acquired a few of these Canadian outfits, social devs or game devs, anything they could add of value to their blackberry ecosystem.


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## gibor365

Sherlock said:


> Banks do provide important services but they don't _produce_ anything,...


That's exactly that I said! Garbage collectors even more imprtant than banks, but again they produce NOTHING. 
I'm working for in this area, our soft is used by 130+ financial institutions...and what they do?! They order for some enhancment (in order to take more and more money from clients) and paying us to develop, Money for this enhancments they again charge from clients.... kind of circle....so we get money, financial institutions et money....and guess who is paying?!


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## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> gibor, don't worry. Bell Canada will be next to go bankrupt after RIM.  (Knock on Wood? )
> 
> You can bet your balls people are happy to have banks when their house burns down in an accidental fire. Imagine if all their money was under their mattress?


KaeJS, 
1. I was talking about high tech, BCE is utility
2. Don't keep paper money (that is just a paper with queen pic), keep in gold or platinum. They don't burn


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## Jungle

Wow this is down 18% this morning.. p/e is so low right now.


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## andrewf

gibor said:


> KaeJS,
> 1. I was talking about high tech, BCE is utility
> 2. Don't keep paper money (that is just a paper with queen pic), keep in gold or platinum. They don't burn


Unfortunately, if the world goes pear-shaped, someone bashes your head in with a crowbar and takes your gold/platinum.


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## liquidfinance

Could be some quick money to be made on a bounce next week if you get your timing right but you are alot braver than me if you do.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...investor-jarislowsky-sold-half-its-stake.html


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## m3s

The writing's been on the wall for RIM for years. BCE is part of a oligopoly though and quite safe unless politics change


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## kcowan

liquidfinance said:


> Could be some quick money to be made on a bounce next week if you get your timing right but you are alot braver than me if you do.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...investor-jarislowsky-sold-half-its-stake.html


Sounds like the fund is selling out near the bottom. Where have they been for 3 years on the downward slide?


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## Eder

liquidfinance said:


> Could be some quick money to be made on a bounce next week if you get your timing right but you are alot braver than me if you do.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...investor-jarislowsky-sold-half-its-stake.html



I 'm down...had a stray $290 in my TSFA account...11 RIM shares...lol
(I'm up $1.32 ...investing is easy!!)


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## ChrisR

I think RIMs big mistake was that as soon as they were faced serious competition, they immediately threw away what they were good at (business users) and tried to follow what the other guys were doing (the handset as entertainment market).

An example of where they threw away what they were good at: When the middle east dictatorships decided to ban Blackberries because they couldn't access and spy on their subjects personal communications. RIM capitulated and gave the governments access to Blackberry servers.

Instead I think they should have resisted, even at the risk of losing those countries as markets. Then, they could have turned it around and used it in a massive marketing effort aimed at the free world. 

ie. One thing the Blackberry can do that the iPhone can't. Keep your private information private. 

Of course, this wouldn't help them sell to the entertainment minded users, who apparently think that the entire reason to have a cell phone is so that you don't have to wait until you get home to plaster your own private information all over the internet!


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## m3s

ChrisR said:


> Of course, this wouldn't help them sell to the entertainment minded users, who apparently think that the entire reason to have a cell phone is so that you don't have to wait until you get home to plaster your own private information all over the internet!


Someone could tail you for one day and get the same information. Why not stay in your house forever?

Even the military doesn't encrypt everything because it causes too many drawbacks. The internet is encrypted where it needs to be (https) and it's the same on the iPhones.

If you want to encrypt your emails any business/person could make an app for the various smartphones...


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## kcowan

ChrisR said:


> ...RIM capitulated and gave the governments access to Blackberry servers...


They missed a perfect opportunity to emphasize that their servers are secure and that ONLY select governments equipped with appropriate authorization would have limited access.

Instead they buried it llike it was a sign of failure! They need some marketing strength.

And what about that Flash advert. What they should be doing is presenting statistic like Flash is used in 80% of all sites developed in the last year, and that the Playbook handles them and the iPad doesn't!

They are giving their market way to much credit. Subtle does not work.


----------



## m3s

My flash just crashed, not even kidding. HTML5 is the future, just like HTML 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 are the past


----------



## ddkay

99% of today's tech sector summed up in 4 minutes 19 seconds http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMmdl4VltD4


----------



## Sherlock

mode3sour said:


> My flash just crashed, not even kidding. HTML5 is the future, just like HTML 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 are the past


That's what they said about Java 10 years ago. Flash isn't going anywhere anytime soon, Adobe Flex/AIR is used heavily in corporate environments.


----------



## jmlz1987

Don't know if anyone is interested...

http://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...i-LLP-Announces-Investigation-Research-Motion

Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP Announces Investigation of Research In Motion Limited

If you purchased RIM securities between December 16, 2010 and June 18, 2011, and you would like to discuss your legal rights, visit www.faruqilaw.com/RIMM.


----------



## MoreMiles

jmlz1987 said:


> Don't know if anyone is interested...
> 
> http://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...i-LLP-Announces-Investigation-Research-Motion
> 
> Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP Announces Investigation of Research In Motion Limited
> 
> If you purchased RIM securities between December 16, 2010 and June 18, 2011, and you would like to discuss your legal rights, visit www.faruqilaw.com/RIMM.


Lawyers believe you cannot lose money on stocks, otherwise it's class action. Where were they when the stock doubled? It's like those deadbeats suing casino after losing money.


----------



## Abha

http://www.businessinsider.com/rim-exec-open-letter-2011-6

This stock is still extremely untouchable for me.


----------



## m3s

Rumour has it they canceled the next version of the Playbook. Tailspin


----------



## Easy Does It

Not to say that the company isn’t going threw changes but the article very much sounds like any disgruntle employee working for a large company. I just came back from a weekend at the cottage with a buddy that works for RIM. I tried to pick his brain a little and it was clear that he was concerned with current events but did also mention that the department he worked in was seriously under staffed and that their business is growing so fast it’s hard to keep up. He also mentioned that the layoffs we based on performance.


----------



## Abha

I have friends at RIM that are sounding pretty downbeat...very akin to other friends working at Nortel in the years leading to Nortel's eventual demise.

Company morale is a huge indicator for me. It usually leads to talent drain and that in turn leads to unfinished projects, major headaches and serious strategical headaches.

Not saying this company is Nortel, but we've got a lot more downside.


----------



## daddybigbucks

even though i would love to buy now, my research tells me that a reasonable stock buy-in price is $10 after last quarter.
alas, i will wait, like a buzzard.

At that point, a buy out could be in the works.


----------



## Abha

No way this stock is dropping to $10

They still make a ton of cash, hold several patents and still have a pipeline (despite its weakness relative to competitors)

There's still downside to RIM, but not 2/3rd of its remaining market cap


----------



## daddybigbucks

your probably correct, but sometimes investors buy and pay a ridiculous premium to get a stock.
And on the flip side, sometimes investors take a ridiculous haircut to get out of a stock.

I always like to pick a value that i can stick with no matter what i hear on the news.

I agree with your early post that you wouldnt even think about buying at $27. If no one wants to buy it can only go one way.


----------



## andrewf

$10, ex cash, would be like 1.5x next years earnings. In other words, priced as if they'd not going to make another dollar of profit in 18 months. In other words, absolutely nuts.


----------



## LondonHomes

RIM is in big trouble.

A lot of current Blackberry users have app envy and will be jumping to the Iphone or Android with their next phone purchase. Sure they've got some core corporate business locked in for security reasons but for how long?


----------



## kcowan

You might try putting a stink bid in before open for $10 and see if anyone enters a sell at market order!

MacLeans publishes critical review of RIM

Looks pretty hopeless!


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> $10, ex cash, would be like 1.5x next years earnings. In other words, priced as if they'd not going to make another dollar of profit in 18 months. In other words, absolutely nuts.


Next year's earning could easily be a fraction of what you expect today if what I see is any indication. People switching from BB to the dark side, at an ever increasing rate


----------



## rookie

kcowan said:


> You might try putting a stink bid in before open for $10 and see if anyone enters a sell at market order!
> 
> MacLeans publishes critical review of RIM
> 
> Looks pretty hopeless!


how often have you been successful doing this? i have tried a few such crazy prices but never got lucky...


----------



## rookie

in fact, i began to suspect that the online trading brokerages have some kind of algorithm to select the immediately lower/higher price...


----------



## kcowan

mode3sour said:


> People switching from BB to the dark side, at an ever increasing rate


I resemble that remark. Are you calling Jobs Darth Vader? I just see a guy with vision. I don't think he even considered BB. If he had, he might have tried to invent an email server for iPhone instead of the iTunes store...


----------



## m3s

You resemble it or you resent it? I have nothing against Jobs. The dark side is how most BB/Android users see it. A girl with told me the other day that iPhones were too easy to hack (yet she's using an open source platform ) Either way people are switching and the bad publicity only increases it


----------



## KaeJS

I think the online brokerages have some type of algorithm to be honest.. 
They must have something.

As far as RIM goes, I don't even believe its a case anymore. The company is dead. Ciao. See ya later. Nice knowin' ya.

The security is one thing - but dont you think with RIM doing so poorly and with all the people they are laying off, Apple isnt going to scoop up some of those employees?

Apple will find a way to make their products more secure. RIM probably has patents, but employees that are part of the security/privacy side of the business will find a new way (probably an even better way) to make Apple products safer/more secure than RIM products.

It is all a matter of time.

Everyone knows that business is a dog-eat-dog world. Well, Apple is like the big dog, and RIM is like the dog that used to be big but is now getting too old to fight. The old dog has the wisdom, but the big dog has the ability to kill.

I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings here, but RIM is worthless in my mind.


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> 1. I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings
> 2 RIM is worthless in my mind.


1. Not at all; you're far kinder than our friend in Germany. 

2. Not the case, yet! 

But just in case, I'm planning my exit strategy and in the interim I will trade the shares so that even if I sell at a loss, I will have made up the losses. 

I think the crucial date for this company will be in 2012.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...blog/is-rim-burying-good-news/article2091432/


----------



## m3s

Haha the interesting thing there is that we're now evaluating stocks solely based on Twitter posts from the social-media-engineers while I read on this forum at the same time how Twitter is pointless intrusive and distracting. I didn't know that giving an opinion on stocks hurt people's feelings. If someone knows anything bad about mine I'd be thankful to hear it


----------



## Toronto.gal

mode3sour said:


> I didn't know that giving an opinion on stocks hurt people's feelings.


Of course not! 

But when someone wishes for a stock you own to burn, maybe then it hurts just a lil. 

No worries, we're all mature & tough here.


----------



## KaeJS

^ I cut my losses at $54..... 

You're still holding?!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Yes, still have 70% of my holdings averaged in the $40's, but until I wait for shares to move up before I sell, I'm working on another strategy to recover my unrealized losses. 

You did well to exit when you did, it had in fact been a very smart move on your part & one that I have learned from I might add!


----------



## dogcom

I bought in at $45.00 and then sold it at $43.00 when I realized the sellers are simply in control and I did not wish to fight them. I have learned in the past on single stock holdings that you cut your losses and get out when sellers are selling down a stock over a long period of time.

The reason you get out is because if you take large losses on one stock it can wipe out all the gains made on your other stocks. I learned this lesson on Laidlaw which in 2000 was being sold down over a long period of time but the company looked like a good value stock to buy.


----------



## Toronto.gal

dogcom said:


> The reason you get out is because if you take large losses on one stock it can wipe out all the gains made on your other stocks.


I did not have this experience [of a huge loss] with any other company since I started investing in stocks 22 months ago, so I learned that lesson with RIM and in that sense I suppose it was a good Canadian lesson.  I don't think anyone [except a handful of people here] would have predicted the fast 80% decline.

You also get out not only to avoid large losses, but because you can buy the same stock at a [much] lower price [not saying I will]. 

In trading, I have on occasion gotten out at same price as purchased, or slightly higher when there was indication the stock would lose a few % points & then got it at a lower price & hence higher returns at my exit point.

I keep thinking if I had gotten out at $45, I would have lost just the commission fee and now I could have bought in the $20's. There are other reasons to get out also.

Anyway, *failure teaches far more than success does.*


----------



## m3s

Not that I'm long on RIM, but I am watching them now. If the market oversells I will get in and just hope they pull a rabbit out if their hat in the future. I heard insiders are still selling, can anyone confirm? Not touching until that changes

When I hold a loser, I ask myself "given the new information I didn't have before, would I buy at this price?" If no, I sell. If the market oversells though, it can become a buy again


----------



## Toronto.gal

mode3sour said:


> I am watching them now.


I don't think I'm reading right; better put my glasses on.


----------



## MoreMiles

Toronto.gal said:


> I did not have this experience [of a huge loss] with any other company since I started investing in stocks 22 months ago, so I learned that lesson with RIM and in that sense I suppose it was a good Canadian lesson.  I don't think anyone [except a handful of people here] would have predicted the fast 80% decline.
> 
> You also get out not only to avoid large losses, but because you can buy the same stock at a [much] lower price [not saying I will].
> 
> In trading, I have on occasion gotten out at same price as purchased, or slightly higher when there was indication the stock would lose a few % points & then got it at a lower price & hence higher returns at my exit point.
> 
> I keep thinking if I had gotten out at $45, I would have lost just the commission fee and now I could have bought in the $20's. There are other reasons to get out also.
> 
> Anyway, *failure teaches far more than success does.*


I feel your pain. To recover from a 50% drop, you need more than 50% rebound... you actually need 100%. $60 to $ 30 = 50%. $30 to $50 = 100%. 

Everyone's strategy is different. It comes down to whether or not you believe in a company. I personally cannot trust any tech company... because of Palm and MySpace. Many companies were once very successful until the crowd find their gadgets not "cool" any more. 

You may learn about trailing loss and moving day average. Many people cut their losses based on those strategies. It is still better to take 10% loss instead of 50%. You may also wish to learn to trade options. With RIM stock option, you have a potential for unlimited gain but your loss is capped at a pre-determined level. 

Have a look at this explanation.

I used to speculate on Chinese ADR stocks, 100% gain in 3 months! Then sudden 20% drop in one day! Well... it was gambling and not investing. I decided not to buy any single stock. If I want to pick one stock, I would go with option instead. http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/22149


----------



## m3s

Some of my best swings are from buying stocks beaten down in the media. I only get in for the rebound after they're oversold, and I'm not sure RIM is there yet.

I really need to learn more about options, thanks for that link


----------



## Toronto.gal

*MoreMiles:* I understand what you're saying about the 50% rebound, however, I'm not just sitting and waiting until that happens because it might take until 2012 [or longer], but in the interim, I have other strategies to recover the unrealized losses, but without touching the existing shares.

Regarding investment strategies, of course, we all have our own methods/techniques. The thing with RIM is that I did believe in the company and still do! 

But you're completely right about the trust level for tech companies as the industry is forever changing at such rapid pace that it makes one dizzy, but exactly for that reason I'm bullish on tech stocks [not all of course]; they simply can't be ignored as we can't live without their products, we just need to move as fast as they do & know when to exit [easier said than done, I know]. For risky stocks, I sell a % of shares after reaching my desired profit level; earlier in the year, I had in fact reached that level with RIMM [$70 on the US side] and hence the reason I now have 70% of those shares instead of 100%.

Yes, already reading about trading options; will start after the summer holidays, wish me luck.  

*"I used to speculate on Chinese ADR stocks, 100% gain in 3 months!"-* how about 161% on YOKU's 1st day of trading back in Dec./2010?! But look at it now. 

Thanks for your comments & tips!


----------



## humble_pie

t.gal i have minor exposure to rim now as i have been a seller of rimm puts for many years. This is one way to profit from a stock inasmuch as short put = long stock minus short call, returnwise.

one would only put on such a strategy for a canadian stock when there is no dividend to speak of. Thus i've been a rimm put seller for more than half-a-decade.

about a year ago, being concerned then as many were about the company, i began to reduce the put positions, always rolling them forward & down by selling fewer forward puts at lower strike prices. The foes of options here - and there are quite a few - will be enraged when i say that i made money on every forward roll; but i did. That's how positions that are going in the wrong direction get repaired, or adjusted.

now i'm down to only 2 puts. They are january 2012 42.50s, meaning the counterparty could stick 200 shares to me for 42 US dollars & 50 pennies.

this won't happen for the time being because the formula strike-minus-stock>option-bid shows that there is still, as there has always been, enough premium to prevent the counterparty from exercising. (ie it's more profitable for counterparty to sell to the bid.)

not that my opinion matters, but i don't see this company as crashing violently much further, assuming the US muddles through the next couple of days & the politicians agree. I would think rimm share price will sputter & putter for a while, although perhaps there will be a speedup into final death agony some time in the future.

it's in the sputtering that option positions can be adjusted. Stock too, as you know.


----------



## m3s

humble_pie said:


> I would think rimm share price will sputter & putter for a while, although perhaps there will be a speedup into final death agony some time in the future.


I think it may go sideways until the next report, but who knows. If it looks like they'll have a better report I will buy for that bounce and get out. Still haven't wrapped my head around options


----------



## Toronto.gal

*HP:* I read your post twice to understand. Thanks for your comments.

*mode3sour:* no worries, we'll get there eventually, hopefully in 2011!


----------



## humble_pie

t.gal for options there is a steep initial learning curve.

plus a person has to have the knack. This is hard to describe. Really just a sense for when progressions of numbers develop an anomoly. Lots of people have the knack.

once up the steep slope a magical vista opens up. A baroque palace with a court dance in progress. All proceed in orderly pairs, trios & quartets, like 17th century chamber music.

the option player dances with a succession of partners. He is not faithful. Frequently he bows, either ditching his current partner to expire behind an arch or else buying her out in order to find a better dancer.


----------



## ddkay

RIM announced 2000 job cuts this morning, or 11% of its workforce


----------



## MikeT

It's hard watching a loved stock die such a slow painful death. They had one single chance and that was to merge with a tech company that would allow them to compete. 

That chance is basically gone and this is a dying company. No new innovation. No new technology. No new customers. Old customers switching to apple and android.

Just look at the facts. Flash on playbook ... Absolute desperation move. Te playbook in general was just a feeble attempt to compete with the iPad. New models look identical to models made 5 years ago.

Games over. Done, time for golf.


----------



## davext

I already sold all positions in this, although it's still bringing down the TSX which I have index ETFs for.

I was thinking about their last hope, which is QNX phones. I wouldn't put any money on it because QNX is just software. In this market, phone manufacturers have to compete with style, usability, performance, applications, etc. The software by itself is not going to fly. It needs a helluva lot more. There are a lot of awesome phones on the market, better than the iPhone but Apple continues to market their brand and they have so many apps. It's the coolest phone to own, it's in style/fashion. 

RIM has a lot to do, I don't think they can be as dominant as they once were. QNX is not going to be the solution, it will not trigger a huge bounce in stock price. it's more like starting from scratch. 

Many people who used to use Blackberries are transitioning over to other smart phones that receive email and have a lot more other functions.


----------



## m3s

There are better phones than iPhone by hardware specs alone, but not an entire package of software/apps/hardware that works together seamlessly with as much developer and accessory support. They were a fashion statement in 2007, now they're mainstream. People buy other phones to "not be part of the Apple cult" which more style/fashion imho

QNX programs the car nav OS's for luxury vehicles. I've used them and they work great, but I can't figure out why Apple doesn't make a car OS because it would make QNX systems feel ancient in a hurry. You need both software and hardware that complement and work well together. There's no point having stellar hardware without equally impressive software

The only thing iOS is missing is a native chat feature à la RIM BBM, but most people I know just use an app to chat across any OS without paying any text fees, it's just not native like BBM. Google's potential is eclipses them all though imo. Their cloud computing and hoards of info like streetview/satellite imagery and local ads should be huge for mobiles and cars. Since they only lock a small bit of this to Android, it's just as easy to get the best of both on iOS


----------



## kcowan

I expect Google to eventually lock some of their functionality to Android. But first they have to gain the upper hand on placements, i.e. >50% or twice iOS.


----------



## andrewf

Yeah. I expect the showdown between Google and Apple to be pretty epic. On the other hand, I wonder if US antitrust regulators might step in to put an end to the anticompetitive behaviour. Google may be restrained due to the fact that antitrust regulators are already breathing down their necks over search.


----------



## Abha

andrewf said:


> Yeah. I expect the showdown between Google and Apple to be pretty epic. On the other hand, I wonder if US antitrust regulators might step in to put an end to the anticompetitive behaviour. Google may be restrained due to the fact that antitrust regulators are already breathing down their necks over search.


They should merge and call themselves Goople.

Android while great and revolutionary needs to be monetized before they can legitimately tackle Apple's dominance.

That being said, they are clearly right on the heels of Apple and quite possibly could overtake them if Apple stumbles or Google executes with ninja like precision.

The losers in all this are everyone else. Microsoft, Nokia, Research in Motion, Hewlett Packard


----------



## andrewf

Android is monetized by funneling users into Google's services and thus search. Everything is about search. Distributing Android for free (but not at no cost wrt licensing it seems) is a great strategy. At the rate things are going, it won't take long for Android devices to seriously outnumber iOS. Regardless of ease of development, being the dominant platform has distinct advantages.


----------



## Abha

andrewf said:


> Android is monetized by funneling users into Google's services and thus search. Everything is about search. Distributing Android for free (but not at no cost wrt licensing it seems) is a great strategy. At the rate things are going, it won't take long for Android devices to seriously outnumber iOS. Regardless of ease of development, being the dominant platform has distinct advantages.


Right. Not questioning the strategy at all but the real key here is getting to the point of monetizing Android at some point.

Apple isn't too far behind in creating their own ecosystem as well which is why they are pretty in line with one another in the tech race.


----------



## kcowan

Android is already ahead on shipments. ISTR around 33% to 26%.


----------



## Abha

Here's a pretty positive spin on RIM by the Globe & Mail. 

I personally don't buy into the story or at least don't at the moment but it's a good read nonetheless.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rly/article2114984/singlepage/#articlecontent


----------



## andrewf

The handset market is pretty interesting. It is very profitable right now, but I suspect it will become commoditized before too long, much like the PC market. Services are likelier to be profitable in the long term, but in that case, having walled-gardens seem like a bad strategy. Google's strategy of taking a small slice of a big pie seems safer to me than the Apple approach of a huge slice of a smallish pie.

It's all academic to me, though. I don't invest directly in this space. I hold all three players through VTI, though.


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> The handset market is pretty interesting. It is very profitable right now, but I suspect it will become commoditized before too long, much like the PC market. Services are likelier to be profitable in the long term, but in that case, having walled-gardens seem like a bad strategy. Google's strategy of taking a small slice of a big pie seems safer to me than the Apple approach of a huge slice of a smallish pie.
> 
> It's all academic to me, though. I don't invest directly in this space. I hold all three players through VTI, though.


I like to speculate on the Google's and Apple's success and RIM's almost-certain-demise but instead I invest in companies that make components that are the heart of all these devices for certain, and making INTEL blush and consider paying them royalties to boot


----------



## dogcom

I took another shot at RIM today at $28.98. It looks like the downtrend has been broken for now so I hope to make a buck here. I lost a couple of bucks trying it at $43.00 before selling to the trend.We will see if my new kick at the can will work as it looks like the buyers are now taking control. If not then I will take another small loss and move on such as it is.


----------



## rookie

dogcom said:


> I took another shot at RIM today at $28.98. It looks like the downtrend has been broken for now so I hope to make a buck here. I lost a couple of bucks trying it at $43.00 before selling to the trend.We will see if my new kick at the can will work as it looks like the buyers are now taking control. If not then I will take another small loss and move on such as it is.


while i like your guts, i also remind myself that putting one's head in lion's mouth is not considered bravery!!!


----------



## kcowan

I just finished unlocking my Samsung Galaxy GIO (Bell Prepaid for 69.99 at Zellers) so that I can use my Rogers prepaid account. I don't need corporate secure email, and I want to use my extensive mp3 library of songs. Way better for us than a postpaid plan since we spend 6 months in Mexico each year.

I think RIM needs to come up with some new features to keep their end users happy. Sharing 50 songs just does not cut it for us.


----------



## Toronto.gal

dogcom said:


> I took another shot at RIM today at $28.98....so I hope to make a buck here.


You sure will dogcom!

Would have been better if you had gotten them 3 weeks ago, but no matter, you'll make a nice profit today; glad that you were brave enough to put 'your head in the lion's mouth'. 

Over 40% increase in less than a month! [$21.40/$31.60] Congrats to those that bought at the 52 week low & held.


----------



## Easy Does It

My 60% gain on my leaps in a little over 2 months isn’t looking too bad at the moment.


----------



## m3s

Toronto.gal said:


> Over 40% increase in less than a month! [$21.40/$31.60] Congrats to those that bought at the 52 week low & held.


Went down 66% and needs 300% to recover though. Sounds bigger on the rebound. Lots of impressive devices coming out this year. I liked them at $20 but they don't have much coming compared to others


----------



## Eclectic12

mode3sour said:


> Went down 66% and needs 300% to recover though. Sounds bigger on the rebound. Lots of impressive devices coming out this year. I liked them at $20 but they don't have much coming compared to others


Excellent points ... though if one bought and $22 and has cashed out,
it probably does not matter.


Cheers


----------



## Toronto.gal

mode3sour said:


> Sounds bigger on the rebound. Lots of impressive devices coming out this year.


I was referring to dogcom's transaction of *Aug.29th, 2011.* 

As for the stock recovery, I was clearly talking about the last 3 weeks, not what the stock was months or years ago. 

You're not singing the song 'burn RIM burn' anymore?


----------



## dogcom

Thanks toronto.gal and I would have bought a little lower but was to busy renovating my house. Still however it could drop again, I am thinking it will close the $35 gap before that happens. For now my finger is on the sell trigger if I need to dump and run, so I am not worried about the risk because I will be gone if need be.

We are in a sell or buy market and screw the fundamentals for awhile now, so we play but do not hold and suffer. Of course some money in the bank and not being like Sino-Forrest is a good idea so some fundamentals need to be there.


----------



## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> You're not singing the song 'burn RIM burn' anymore?


I am.

Still wouldn't even buy it at $20.


----------



## m3s

Toronto.gal said:


> As for the stock recovery, I was clearly talking about the last 3 weeks, not what the stock was months or years ago.
> 
> You're not singing the song 'burn RIM burn' anymore?


I even made a post somewhere that it was attractively priced (short term) I find the market over reacts in the short term. I was singing that song when they were $60. Long term - Burn RIM Burn  They need to just focus on secure corporate devices and stop making lame versions of consumer phones and tablets. The military is probably one of the biggest contacts for Black Berrys (military is the biggest organization in Canada and nearly every officer has a BB since they came out) and the US is already developing something far better suited for the security need. They'll keep losing market share as many corporate types are actually better suited with other smartphones


----------



## Eclectic12

mode3sour said:


> [ ... ]
> 
> They need to just focus on secure corporate devices and stop making lame versions of consumer phones and tablets. The military is probably one of the biggest contacts for Black Berrys (military is the biggest organization in Canada and nearly every officer has a BB since they came out) and the US is already developing something far better suited for the security need. They'll keep losing market share as many corporate types are actually better suited with other smartphones


I'm curious as to what group in the US is developing something better security-wise. I haven't heard of any, plus the security types I've talked to don't seem to know of anyone.

As for losing market share for the corporate types, I suspect a lot will depend on the priority of security in the corporation. 

Some of the companies I've worked for changed their policies quickly after an incident. For example, one couldn't be bothered with disk encryption for laptops for a variety of reasons including "too slow", "there's nothing confidential" and "it's not user friendly". After assessing the value of the documents known to be on a stolen laptop two changes happened overnight. The first was a rollout of disk encryption for laptops within two weeks and the second was a mass swap of cell phones to Blackberry's.


Cheers


----------



## Lephturn

iPhone has come a long way over the years - they are now plenty secure and making inroads into business.

http://images.apple.com/iphone/business/docs/iPhone_Security.pdf

http://images.apple.com/iphone/business/docs/iPhone_MDM.pdf

Encryption, data security, policy management, automatic wiping, remote wiping... Apple has all the tools. Android I don't know as well, but RIM no longer has an advantage in this area - at least not much of one.


----------



## m3s

Eclectic12 said:


> I'm curious as to what group in the US is developing something better security-wise. I haven't heard of any, plus the security types I've talked to don't seem to know of anyone.
> 
> As for losing market share for the corporate types, I suspect a lot will depend on the priority of security in the corporation.
> 
> Some of the companies I've worked for changed their policies quickly after an incident. For example, one couldn't be bothered with disk encryption for laptops for a variety of reasons including "too slow", "there's nothing confidential" and "it's not user friendly". After assessing the value of the documents known to be on a stolen laptop two changes happened overnight. The first was a rollout of disk encryption for laptops within two weeks and the second was a mass swap of cell phones to Blackberry's.
> 
> 
> Cheers


The US military is developing mobile devices that are more secure and more rugged. I can see them being used for civilians who work in the field as well. RIM could have easily competed for this young market but instead they fight a losing battle with Apple and Google over consumers

Blackberry will lose market share in the the corporate market as more and more people realize the productivity of iOS/Android trumps the security. Now if you actually want security, you shouldn't expect it from even a Blackberry in the first place but that's another topic.


----------



## Eclectic12

mode3sour said:


> The US military is developing mobile devices that are more secure and more rugged. I can see them being used for civilians who work in the field as well. RIM could have easily competed for this young market but instead they fight a losing battle with Apple and Google over consumers
> 
> Blackberry will lose market share in the the corporate market as more and more people realize the productivity of iOS/Android trumps the security. Now if you actually want security, you shouldn't expect it from even a Blackberry in the first place but that's another topic.


Thanks for the military info.

As for how much security (or how much better) a BB is over it's competitors - that's not my forte so I leave to the security types to figure out.


Cheers


----------



## Abha

Eclectic12 said:


> Thanks for the military info.
> 
> As for how much security (or how much better) a BB is over it's competitors - that's not my forte so I leave to the security types to figure out.
> 
> 
> Cheers


I really think Microsoft will be the biggest challenger in this field given their dominance in the enterprise.

I had high hopes for HP but the management has screwed up so badly I don't think they'll ever recover.

I think the market is anticipating a RIM buyout with Microsoft being the bidder.


----------



## dogcom

Already dumped the stock in the ditch at $31.72 today, so quick profit is in and may decide to go again but we will see. I would have dumped it at over $32.00 but was to busy to do so this morning.


----------



## Argonaut

dogcom, that was your 777th post, so RIM is likely to retreat from here based on your lucky number.


----------



## dogcom

Wow argonaut it looks like you are right. This could be a nice new addition to technical analysis which I will bet no one has heard of yet so we can all get in on the ground floor.


----------



## Dmoney

What does 778th post mean???? Quick should I buy or sell? And someone else answer because if you post a 779th time it could move the entire market 

I'm wondering what people are thinking of HP right now. Value play or value trap? Seems to be in disarray, but can they recover? Biggest tech company by revenues, so they're not disappearing anytime soon, but how much downside/upside do you guys see?


----------



## Argonaut

dogcom said:


> Wow argonaut it looks like you are right. This could be a nice new addition to technical analysis which I will bet no one has heard of yet so we can all get in on the ground floor.


RIMM got spanked by 5.4% today, so I think we're on to something. I better do something good with my 777th post.


----------



## kcowan

Dmoney said:


> I'm wondering what people are thinking of HP right now. Value play or value trap? Seems to be in disarray, but can they recover? Biggest tech company by revenues, so they're not disappearing anytime soon, but how much downside/upside do you guys see?


By keeping their server business, they are following in IBM's footprints. However, anouncing that they are leaving the PC business without having a buyer lined up seems to be an ill-conceived idea. So I would tend to consider them a value trap until that gets clearer.

In IBM's case, Lenovo did well by Thinkpad owners. I see no such transition for HP.


----------



## Abha

kcowan said:


> By keeping their server business, they are following in IBM's footprints. However, anouncing that they are leaving the PC business without having a buyer lined up seems to be an ill-conceived idea. So I would tend to consider them a value trap until that gets clearer.
> 
> In IBM's case, Lenovo did well by Thinkpad owners. I see no such transition for HP.


I own HP shares so I'll add that I got in because I think the most likely scenario is that they'll spin off the PC business and current shareholders will get shares in a new entity (PC Business X)

If they recover from the stumbling mess from the past year, I see no reason why this wouldn't be a great scenario for shareholders (much like Altria spinning off Kraft and Phillip Morris). 

I don't think PC's are going anywhere anytime soon so their business is still quite considerable.


----------



## m3s

Abha said:


> I own HP shares so I'll add that I got in because I think the most likely scenario is that they'll spin off the PC business and current shareholders will get shares in a new entity (PC Business X)
> 
> If they recover from the stumbling mess from the past year, I see no reason why this wouldn't be a great scenario for shareholders (much like Altria spinning off Kraft and Phillip Morris).
> 
> I don't think PC's are going anywhere anytime soon so their business is still quite considerable.





Abha said:


> As much as I want everyone and their mother to buy iPads, I really do love my TouchPad.
> 
> At $150 it was a steal. It's already being utilized more than my laptop and mp3 player.


HP selling Touchpads at $150 and wanting out of the business should be a pretty good indicator? IBM said a long time ago PC's were poor business and HP profited by selling PC with junk power supplies and other components that average consumers doesn't consider. Manufacturing of mobile components has surpassed PC's for years. Less people are in any rush to replace their PC when they can buy a tablet/mobile/game console for significantly less that does everything more conveniently

More people share a PC whereas a lot of people want their own tablet/mobile etc. In some countries people don't have a desk for a PC yet they still buy mobiles etc. PC business will decline a lot from these cheaper tablets etc


----------



## kcowan

The new appliance is the smart phone. How many PC manufacturers make one?

I mean besides Apple...


----------



## Lephturn

kcowan said:


> The new appliance is the smart phone. How many PC manufacturers make one?
> 
> I mean besides Apple...


Dell does.

Compaq had quite a good set of products in the handheld/smart phone market a few years back. iPaq? Then they tied themselves to Microsoft's mobile platform and it killed them.

Now that I think about it - the iPhone basically wiped out all of the clunky smartphones that were pretty good up until that point. We tend to forget how long ago the iPhone came out and how far ahead they were. I would say 2010 was the first year there was anything "as good" or very close to the iPhone - in this case some of the Samsung Android phones.

I think it's only the last year and a half where they have started to figure out that it's not about the device or the OS - though those have to be top shelf - but about the ecosystem.


----------



## m3s

Lephturn said:


> but about the ecosystem.


Which makes me wonder why people buy HP Touchpads, though there may become a strong following afterall. No publicity is bad publicity after all

I've always thought Macs were overpriced but I'm sick of how cheap laptops have become. So it has 6 processor cores too many but it's built of papier-mâché - Buying Mac next time


----------



## Abha

mode3sour said:


> Which makes me wonder why people buy HP Touchpads, though there may become a strong following afterall. No publicity is bad publicity after all


Because it's a terrific device for $150. At the very least it's a portable e-reader / web browser.

HP simply could not compete with Apple, but it doesn't take away the strengths of the TouchPad.

Also having flash enabled is a huge benefit for web browsing.


----------



## m3s

Yes at $150 I'm not going to argue. That's the price of an MP3 player. If enough nerds got one there should be an underground app store of some sorts


----------



## Abha

mode3sour said:


> Yes at $150 I'm not going to argue. That's the price of an MP3 player. If enough nerds got one there should be an underground app store of some sorts


I'm actually quite happy with the amount of apps on there. 

There's also an underground community that build their own apps for WebOS devices, so that's an added benefit.


----------



## Goldfinger

*Buy RIM.TO*

Buy RIM.TO.

There is no correlation with a share price and its products...this is all bs.

AAPL was a $10 stock in the dot com boom....1996-2000. While AOL was splitting 2 a year or more...and going to $250 and 300 and CMGI to $300 etc....AAPL only got to $20-30 as a high.

Nobody bought Apple...because they all read the news which I call stupid news.

The mkt is a game controlled and manipulated by a few in Wall and Bay street and the only way to game the game is to fool you..and you get easily fooled by listening and reading to other fools who calls themselves gurus, book writers , money managers, financial planners, economists etc.

Bombardier will be a $80 stock by 2016. Its been basing for nearly 10 years..... same thing with MSFT.....

Its very easy to tell where a stock, commodity etc. is going. Its like a painting and if you have painted like Picasso you can see the result before you even put your brush to the paper.

RIM is going to $155 then $250 by 2014/2016. " So it is written so shall it be done."


----------



## Toronto.gal

Goldfinger said:


> Bombardier will be a $80 stock by 2016. Its been basing for nearly 10 years.....


BBD.B is a favourite of mine; my prediction is $25 by 2016, which would still be an awesome return for me.


----------



## brad

Goldfinger said:


> RIM is going to $155 then $250 by 2014/2016. " So it is written so shall it be done."


I'm starting a collection of these confident predictions and am planning to revisit them in a few years to see how wildly off the mark they turned out to be. I have a few juicy ones from the last couple of years, including some very confident predictions two years ago by senior members of this forum that mortgage interest rates were headed upward when in fact they've declined since then.


----------



## m3s

Goldfinger said:


> Nobody bought Apple...because they all read the news which I call stupid news.
> 
> Bombardier will be a $80 stock by 2016. Its been basing for nearly 10 years..... same thing with MSFT.....
> 
> Its very easy to tell where a stock, commodity etc. is going. Its like a painting and if you have painted like Picasso you can see the result before you even put your brush to the paper.
> 
> RIM is going to $155 then $250 by 2014/2016. " So it is written so shall it be done."


I agree with your general contrarian sentiment, but nobody bought Apple back then because it was practically bankrupt. Microsoft had cornered so much of the market share that they had to pay Apple millions just to avoid anti competitive regulations. With tech, once somebody corners the market it doesn't even matter if you make something better. Why buy a Mac when Windows had all the software? Why buy a PS3 when all the games are developed for XBox? Why buy a BB when all the apps are made for iPhone?

Bombardier has also been held afloat by the Canadian government, but that's completely different because they don't deal with consumers etc.

Nothing RIM has done in the past few years indicates they have any innovation going at all. I speculated that they would crash based on this and I think they're much more fairly priced now. Sure they could market the "next big thing" but until they do it's all speculation. Most people didn't realize how big the iPhone would be even after it was on the market for years. What does RIM currently have that people are seriously underestimating and oblivious to?


----------



## Abha

Goldfinger said:


> RIM is going to $155 then $250 by 2014/2016. " So it is written so shall it be done."


You're kidding right? They can't fetch that premium if they got bought out in a good market.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

mode3sour said:


> I agree with your general contrarian sentiment, but nobody bought Apple back then because it was practically bankrupt.


I was kicking the tires back then and disagree that Apple was "practically bankrupt". IIRC, the stock was trading at $14 and had $13 in cash in the bank. The stock was effectively trading for $1 but the company was far from bankrupt.


----------



## Goldfinger

*Predictions*

Brad you been looking at too many gurus and experts on TV...they a load of crap.

The interest rates will go up and be much higher come 2016. Probably in the 9-12% range. The elastic band will go further higher than it did in the 2001-2002 recession when the rates went to 6-7%. The Eurodollar, not the Euro is telling the script like a charm.

Just as they foolded you and others about Apple they are now fooling you about RIM.TO. They fooled ALL about Nortel.

Taylor.gal....you will be amazed where Bombardier goes...just like nobody thought priceline would go from $900 in 1999 to $1 and change or less in 2001/2002 to $400+ in 2011. 

Amazon, CMG ( Chicken mexican grill ), Priceline, Domtar ( what a move ) and even Google will bust big time one day. They are backed up by the "gang" the "snake charmers" and they charm/control the media, newspapers, TV, Wall Street so YOU can never win unless YOU know what they are doing or going to do.

Gold I had a high of $1640-1720 and the parabolic moves are very hard to predict...but all parabolic moves end very badly and sometimes very sharply. See Cotton this year...silver 11 trading day $80k drop from $49-33, ES etc.

My low in Gold is $979.50 by end Jan or Feb 2012. It should be a 3 month, max 6 month correction. Cotton took 5 months 227 to 95...wow. Million dollar trade and then some...6 ways to trade it down futures, add positions in 2 spots, puts, free trades and sell calls. Nobody on Bay Street knows how to do this....why would they..when they partying with your money at a JOB.

Real Estate in T.O. I've been saying this since March of 2009. Take the average and or median price then ( 2009 ) and double it...and by 2014/15 we will have average home prices in Toronto of $825-850,000. People ask me where the money is going to come from...I said it then I will say it now...mainland China and India and Brazil etc. The playbook stays the same nothing changes...when you know who the devil is.

After this, Toronto for that matter Vancouver..Canada will have our own US style real estate crash....where prices will drop like Florida, Las Vegas, Airzona and California ( exempt San Franciso ).

2016-2020 Toronto RE prices will drop 62.50-70.30%..the more expensive homes may drop 76%. 

I plan to sell my house in 2013 when the DX will be 51-41 ( USD index ) and the US re prices have nudged up 2-5% from 2011. We should have a double top in US real estate prices come 2018/2019 and then down....but this exact US RE forecast I have to mull further. However, the Toronto RE boom and bust with the time frames is a guaranteed bet. In 2013, I will then buy a house in the US..water, sand, hot, and rent one here in GTA. 

I will be shorting all the banks especiall home capital come 2015 into 2016 and then down. The Banks should get to 1970's prices like $5-10....see how Citi fell, WamU...all of them. Well its coming to the banking industry here and they can't do a thing about it.....I know why..do you?

The best buy and hold market ( nobody buys and holds except Buffet..he waited 21 years to get real rich....1973 + 21 = 1994...now go check you charts from 1994 on ES, YM, NQ and TF ) is......the Nikkei.

The Nikkei index is going to 39,000+ by 2024/2026 and may even move past this number up to 58-63,000. ( 39,000 x 1.5 or 39,000 x1.618 ). I got the signal in 2009 ....lets see if you can figure this out. The same thing happened once before....symbolism...the "snake charmers" love it.

So the future is very easy to tell...for the simpleton...."What you read, see, believe, observe and absorb is all a lie." For the perceived friend is really your enemy and the perceived enemy really your friend. 

Jesus was the perceived enemy....by whom you ask? Who is the perceived friend of America? For that matter who controls America..the Fed reserve is part of it...but you must find the *tribe* that runs it all.

Yes you will get the answer to your riches if you so desire...."Seek and Ye shall find."

I have told you the future. Yes keep these predictions and see how they all come true.


----------



## Argonaut

What is everyone's thoughts on the quarterly announcement this week? It's going to move big either up or down. Everyone nowadays is switching to iPhone, so the logical thought would be bad numbers. But I never know with these things; whatever the market decides in a split second is where the stock is going to go.


----------



## ddkay

Missed estimates again, down 12% afterhours on 3 million volume


----------



## ddkay

Goldfinger said:


> Buy RIM.TO. There is no correlation with a share price and its products...this is all bs. RIM is going to $155 then $250 by 2014/2016. " So it is written so shall it be done." Just as they foolded you and others about Apple they are now fooling you about RIM.TO. They fooled ALL about Nortel.


Now -17% on 8 million volume, share price $24.40. Someones crystal ball broke!!


----------



## ddkay

I'm thinking of buying some shares for a trade whenever the selling settles down, unless RIM goes bankrupt next week, nothing can drop this hard without a modest bounce after...


----------



## Jungle

Careful, their profit is down 47%. What can they do to get that back up? 
Apple brand is so strong right now.


----------



## ddkay

I'm only looking for a 5-10% gain or so, e.g. $21 -> $23. As for the long-term picture, I don't think there is much they can do. The smartphone version of QNX is supposed to come out on the BlackBerry Colt in Q1 2012. Knowing RIM, this will be delayed a few more quarters... Also since it's the first iteration of a brand new OS, it's bound to be buggy. I hear they can't even get BES working on it, so BES has to be completely rewritten and run as a separate process for QNX, that's a huge blow to corporate customers.


----------



## webber22

Watch out now, Goldfinger Buffet quoted from above says its going to $250 
_

"RIM is going to $155 then $250 by 2014/2016. " So it is written so shall it be done."_


----------



## m3s

QNX makes car navigation OS, a far cry from mobile OS. Imagine in Apple decided to make a car OS? QNX had online community for programmers that was very productive. iOS and Android are what they are thanks to the thriving developer ecosystem. First thing RIM did was shut it down. Developers are leaving RIM even faster than users, and that's the writing on the wall IMO


----------



## KaeJS

webber22 said:


> Watch out now, Goldfinger Buffet quoted from above says its going to $250
> _
> 
> "RIM is going to $155 then $250 by 2014/2016. " So it is written so shall it be done."_


I wish I could give him the benefit of the doubt and say he forgot the decimal places. 

What he should have said is $1.55 -> $2.50 by 2014/2016.


----------



## Argonaut

I bought some puts today at the last minute before I went to work. Judging by the after hours trading I have made 4x or 5x my money. According to the best trader on Bay Street, Goldfinger, RIMM is going to $200 or something. Probably a good bet to do the opposite of every single trade he makes.


----------



## ddkay

I completely forgot they had earnings tonight, I just looked them up when I saw the "RIM MISSES ESTIMATES STOCK DOWN 9%!" headlines scrolling by. Great job on the puts.


----------



## King Tut

webber22 said:


> Watch out now, Goldfinger Buffet quoted from above says its going to $250
> _
> 
> "RIM is going to $155 then $250 by 2014/2016. " So it is written so shall it be done."_


Warren Buffet was right not to invest in technology companies. Glad I don't have any RIM shares!


----------



## MikeT

It's not tech, it's just RIM. Apple is doing fine and dandy.

RIM has made a few very large mistakes at the top level over the last few years. What you are seeing now is the results of those mistakes. 

That being said, I covered my shorts today. There still is value there, and they are quickly becoming a takeover target with their stock price tumbling. It won't be long now.


----------



## MoneyMaker

Goldfinger said:


> Brad you been looking at too many gurus and experts on TV...they a load of crap.
> 
> The interest rates will go up and be much higher come 2016. Probably in the 9-12% range. The elastic band will go further higher than it did in the 2001-2002 recession when the rates went to 6-7%. The Eurodollar, not the Euro is telling the script like a charm.
> 
> Just as they foolded you and others about Apple they are now fooling you about RIM.TO. They fooled ALL about Nortel.
> 
> Taylor.gal....you will be amazed where Bombardier goes...just like nobody thought priceline would go from $900 in 1999 to $1 and change or less in 2001/2002 to $400+ in 2011.
> 
> Amazon, CMG ( Chicken mexican grill ), Priceline, Domtar ( what a move ) and even Google will bust big time one day. They are backed up by the "gang" the "snake charmers" and they charm/control the media, newspapers, TV, Wall Street so YOU can never win unless YOU know what they are doing or going to do.
> 
> Gold I had a high of $1640-1720 and the parabolic moves are very hard to predict...but all parabolic moves end very badly and sometimes very sharply. See Cotton this year...silver 11 trading day $80k drop from $49-33, ES etc.
> 
> My low in Gold is $979.50 by end Jan or Feb 2012. It should be a 3 month, max 6 month correction. Cotton took 5 months 227 to 95...wow. Million dollar trade and then some...6 ways to trade it down futures, add positions in 2 spots, puts, free trades and sell calls. Nobody on Bay Street knows how to do this....why would they..when they partying with your money at a JOB.
> 
> Real Estate in T.O. I've been saying this since March of 2009. Take the average and or median price then ( 2009 ) and double it...and by 2014/15 we will have average home prices in Toronto of $825-850,000. People ask me where the money is going to come from...I said it then I will say it now...mainland China and India and Brazil etc. The playbook stays the same nothing changes...when you know who the devil is.
> 
> After this, Toronto for that matter Vancouver..Canada will have our own US style real estate crash....where prices will drop like Florida, Las Vegas, Airzona and California ( exempt San Franciso ).
> 
> 2016-2020 Toronto RE prices will drop 62.50-70.30%..the more expensive homes may drop 76%.
> 
> I plan to sell my house in 2013 when the DX will be 51-41 ( USD index ) and the US re prices have nudged up 2-5% from 2011. We should have a double top in US real estate prices come 2018/2019 and then down....but this exact US RE forecast I have to mull further. However, the Toronto RE boom and bust with the time frames is a guaranteed bet. In 2013, I will then buy a house in the US..water, sand, hot, and rent one here in GTA.
> 
> I will be shorting all the banks especiall home capital come 2015 into 2016 and then down. The Banks should get to 1970's prices like $5-10....see how Citi fell, WamU...all of them. Well its coming to the banking industry here and they can't do a thing about it.....I know why..do you?
> 
> The best buy and hold market ( nobody buys and holds except Buffet..he waited 21 years to get real rich....1973 + 21 = 1994...now go check you charts from 1994 on ES, YM, NQ and TF ) is......the Nikkei.
> 
> The Nikkei index is going to 39,000+ by 2024/2026 and may even move past this number up to 58-63,000. ( 39,000 x 1.5 or 39,000 x1.618 ). I got the signal in 2009 ....lets see if you can figure this out. The same thing happened once before....symbolism...the "snake charmers" love it.
> 
> So the future is very easy to tell...for the simpleton...."What you read, see, believe, observe and absorb is all a lie." For the perceived friend is really your enemy and the perceived enemy really your friend.
> 
> Jesus was the perceived enemy....by whom you ask? Who is the perceived friend of America? For that matter who controls America..the Fed reserve is part of it...but you must find the *tribe* that runs it all.
> 
> Yes you will get the answer to your riches if you so desire...."Seek and Ye shall find."
> 
> I have told you the future. Yes keep these predictions and see how they all come true.


I would like to invest in your crystal ball.


----------



## HaroldCrump

MikeT said:


> they are quickly becoming a takeover target with their stock price tumbling. It won't be long now.


I think the perfect company to buy out RIM is Rogers, not Microsoft.
Rogers can re-packaged and re-market the RIM products alongwith their other services, and offer competitive discounts.
On the other hand, I don't see any value in Microsoft buying out RIM.
Microsoft has already invested heavily in its own tablet and its own mobile operating system.
Plus, why would they want to internalize the juicy licensing fees that it charges RIM.


----------



## ddkay

I'd get a BlackBerry if I could use it without paying extra BIS. Without BIS you can't surf, e-mail or use BBM. You'll always hear RIM talking about BIS giving them a steady revenue stream. For most consumers that are already paying through the nose for a smartphone it's just a waste of money.

It's also prone to failure taking out millions of devices at once. There was a BIS outage today on two continents: https://twitter.com/#!/BlackBerryHelp/status/114744172682027009


----------



## Argonaut

Rogers can't afford RIM, they don't have the market cap. It would be a merger, and I don't see either company wanting to do that. A good bet is private equity takeout. They wouldn't need to worry about share prices being affected, and they could just sit on the patents and the earnings, which are still valuable on a numerical basis.


----------



## MikeT

Rogers? Are you friggin kidding me? This is one situation where the business angles absolutely DO NOT MATTER. What matters is tech capacity that allows actual competition with google and apple. THERE IS ONLY ONE COMPANY IN THE WORLD WITH THAT CAPACITY AND IT'S MICROSOFT.

Internalizing licensing fees?? Ya I'm sure that's what apple thinks about daily. I'm sure Brin sits around with Page and hums and haws about internalizing licensing fees. Ridiculous. 

However you are correct in assuming that Balmer probably does sit around and think about this BS, which is why he's losing too.

RIMM Market Cap = $12.5 billion.
Rogers cash on hand = $0. ($2 billion in current assets though).
MSFT cash on hand = $52 billion. (including short term investments).
(source: moneycentral.com)

There is a trade off over time however. The company is getting cheaper, but it also losing ground rapidly. Is there even a chance to play catchup? Or has that opportunity passed them by already?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Of course I realize Rogers can't afford to buy RIM, and Microsoft can.

But it doesn't make any sense whatsoever for Microsoft to buy RIM.
Not after their deal with Nokia.
And not after investing God knows how many millions into the R&D of their own Windows tablet and the Windows mobile OS.

Perhaps Apple can spend some pocket change to buy RIM, fire the CEOs, and write off the company altogether i.e. "shoot the monkey".
They might take a hit of $1 or $2 on their share price temporarily, but iPhone 5 should fix that.


----------



## Abha

I don't think Apple would be allowed to buy RIM due to anti competitive regulations.

Microsoft is still the best company to buy them because of their position in the enterprise market.

Google could potentially buy them for the same reason but I think there's too much overlap with their Android platform.

I guess you could make the same case for Oracle or Cisco due to their cash positions as well.


----------



## kcowan

You also have to look at where a company has their cash. If it is offshore like MS, then an acquisition here will have to be financed. I think RIM missed the dance when they could have been worth a bunch (like at $155 a share). It is unlikely that current management would consider any offer.

Why RIM missed the boat?

Their stock is cheap for a reason. And nothing is in the offing to change that any time soon.


----------



## dcaron

*RIM is up 13% this am !!!*

I guess the disappointing Apple Iphone 4.x release yesterday, helped RIM?


----------



## andrewf

No one could have afforded RIM at $155 a share + a premium.


----------



## larry81

My cloudy crystal ball tell me that MSFT will buy RIM


----------



## HaroldCrump

According to GoldFinger, RIM is going to $500.
He has staked his reputation on it.
He has also promised to post pictures of himself eating his boot, hat and umbrella if that doesn't happen.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Seems you haven't read the latest [unsubstantiated] news.

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/05/rim-jumps-more-than-14-on-more-takeover-talk/


----------



## ddkay

I heard Tim Hortons is buying RIM


----------



## Argonaut

Roll up the RIMM to win.


----------



## silverbull89

I bought a position in RIM yesterday morning, did pretty good today. I think they have hit there bottom and saw it as a buying op. What do you guys think?


----------



## adreama

*Rim*

What is your thought on RIM for the next year or 2.


----------



## rookie

i repeat. RIM's dead, long live RIM. when the ceos cannot decide on one ceo or when they start swaying their focus on buying hockey teams while they are in the business where every 6 months is a new generation, what do you expect???


----------



## humble_pie

tis true, what does one expect.

there was a thread in cmf forum about what signs to look for in a company apart from the obvious. I remember posting signs like when mike lazarides became obese. That was at the time of the sports teams flirtations or even earlier. In any event, a long time ago.


----------



## webber22

If anyone is still holding on, today it's down 7% to 20.96, close to it's 52wk low


----------



## Rommel

webber22 said:


> If anyone is still holding on, today it's down 7% to 20.96, close to it's 52wk low


I want RIM to do well but it's time for Lazzy to go. Jim... well.... if Lazzy parts, Jim gets one chance. If not, both go!

Anyone see this as a buy @ $20? If they can fix their leadership and vision mess I believe they have a lot of upside.

Thoughts?


----------



## lewin

webber22 said:


> If anyone is still holding on, today it's down 7% to 20.96, close to it's 52wk low


Every time it drops another five percent I tell myself, "What's the point in selling now? It can't go down further!" And then two weeks later it drops another five percent. At this point I'm only going to get $1000 back so I wonder whether it's even worth selling. Let it ride?


----------



## Lephturn

lewin said:


> Every time it drops another five percent I tell myself, "What's the point in selling now? It can't go down further!" And then two weeks later it drops another five percent. At this point I'm only going to get $1000 back so I wonder whether it's even worth selling. Let it ride?


Just remember this is exactly what people said with say... Nortel as it dropped below $100. Or RIM as it dropped below 100! You can still lose 100% from here. :|

If you own the stock you can sell calls against it and buy puts for protection below the current price. If the puts go "in the money" you should liquidate them and sell the stock at the same time and get the hell out IMO. If you are not ready to use options just put a stop loss order in place just below a support level you think it should hold and let it sell for you if it continues to drop. Like say below but reasonably close to $ 20.00.

Never enter a position without exit strategies that cover all aspects - up down and sideways.


----------



## dogcom

Lephturn is bang on and there are countless what seems to be very good companies going down to nothing or close to it.

The value trap is the hardest lesson of all because it goes against everything people say like buy low. Also when a company is down worse then the market or its group then there is always great reasons why. You need to do a lot of homework and investigation to find out if the selling is not justified. This is very hard for the casual investor to do so I wouldn't bother with it.


----------



## Belguy

You can never lose everything when you invest in an index.

However, you sure can when you invest in an individual stock.

Buyer beware.


----------



## ddkay

Never lose everything? Anyone have a record of the Roman Empire stock index?


----------



## webber22

The Greece GT-30 index will never go under


----------



## Belguy

These are relatively marginal geographical plays. I'm talking about the large, broad-based ETF's tied to the major indexes.

However, I do remember that I did lose my entire investment in the Roman Empire Index when it went down and that's when I learned my lesson!!


----------



## Argonaut

Belguy, you should have diversified into the Catholic Church index fund or maybe set up shop in the Constantinople stock exchange.

As for RIMM, common shares shouldn't have been touched for a long time. Leaps look interesting though. 
The $20 strike for January 2013 only costs 5.75.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Argonaut said:


> Belguy, you should have diversified into the Constantinople stock exchange.


Lol, but no need to go that far back as there are plenty of 2011 ETF dogs to choose from.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/298970-contrarian-etf-ideas-investing-in-the-etf-dogs-of-2011


----------



## HaroldCrump

Belguy said:


> You can never lose everything when you invest in an index.


If you want to _never lose everything_, buy GICs


----------



## Belguy

Yes, but unlike broad-based ETF's, GIC's will never make you rich!! Therein lies the difference.


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Yes, but unlike broad-based ETF's, GIC's will never make you rich!! Therein lies the difference.


*In my personal opinion:*

Neither will index ETF's.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> *In my personal opinion:*
> 
> Neither will index ETF's.


On a long term horizon, broad market low cost index fund (or etf) are individual investor best bet.

index ETF's are not 'get rich quick' scheme, but on a long term horizon (think 25y+), broad market low cost index fund (or etf) are individual investor best investment vehicle.

(said the guy who dropped a significant amount of cash in a single stock a few weeks ago)


----------



## KaeJS

Yes, yes.

I know all about that... 

I just can't stand ETFs.... unless they are 3x leveraged.


----------



## KaeJS

Imagine how much money I would have lost if I didn't sell out of XIU at $20.05


----------



## Argonaut

I don't think you can get rich from hiding under the bed with index ETFs. You can get rich through hard work and savings. Indexes may then be a proxy for capital depending on your investment style. But to get rich solely through investing, you have to make some great moves like the famous investors have. Then you can blow away other people's money on Sino-Forest and Bank of America and still be rich.


----------



## Oilers82

KaeJS said:


> Imagine how much money I would have lost if I didn't sell out of XIU at $20.05


You would've lost exactly as much as I've lost since I bought the ETF around that price earlier this year haha. Still holding


----------



## lewin

Lephturn said:


> Never enter a position without exit strategies that cover all aspects - up down and sideways.


I'm new to investing, and can definitely see (in retrospect) that this buying decision was driven more by good feelings than good thinking. I live near RIM HQ and like my Blackberry and that made me overly optimistic. Now I only buy companies I hate as a customer, like BCE


----------



## rookie

lewin said:


> Now I only buy companies I hate as a customer, like BCE


but remember that if too many people hate it enough, then it suddenly could turn into a poor investment choice.


----------



## cdnpennystocks

I guess we aren't really talking about RIM anymore??

Any thoughts on the stock after the roller coaster ride it's been on for the last few months. I bought some by accident with a call option a few months back, forgot that my broker automatically exercises the option, been down hill ever since then :S

I'm hoping they get up over $30 then I'll dump them


----------



## Abha

BCE is another one of those "as safe as it gets" equities.

It's a staple in almost every retiree's portfolio and for the most part is pretty much recession proof.


----------



## Montrealer

*Research In Motion Limited / TSE: RIM*

Is anyone going to take a chance on Research In Motion Limited? Currently trading under $20.00 a share. 

Personally, I am willing to take a chance and buy it! I think either Microsoft or Palm will buy them sooner than later, it will only make sense for RIM to sell.

Discuss!


----------



## HaroldCrump

There is already a long thread on RIM:
http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=2825

Let's please continue the discussion there


----------



## Montrealer

Sorry, did not search.

Please merge in this case!


----------



## King Tut

I think RIM will be a Nortel stock in the not too distant future


----------



## Argonaut

I don't think the Nortel comparison is apt. That was a speculative run-up aided by the internet bubble on a company with poor fundamentals. RIMM has no debt trouble, and makes lots of money. The problem is an end to growth, poor management, incredible competition, and a bleak future outlook. Their situation is not unlike Apple was when they were getting destroyed by the PC pre-Jobs. Unlike Apple, I just don't see RIMM turning things around unless they put some research in motion and come up with the next big thing. Not going to happen. The best hope for shareholders is a buyout.


----------



## Homerhomer

Nortel was also a fraud and they were cooking their books, RIM results are so bad that there is no doubt they are reporting correct numbers , not a fair comparison, despite the fact they may continue to go down.

Nokia comparison would probably be better.


----------



## bigcake

I will buy RIMM heavily sometime in the future. I'm trading RIMM now.


----------



## Jungle

RIMM continues to lose market share and investor's are losing confidence in the management's ability to come up with something new to drive more sales and growth.


----------



## Abha

I know the second that both co-CEO's step aside the stock will pop 8 - 10%

Just need to time it right although we are getting pretty close as more activist shareholders apply pressure to the board.


----------



## doctrine

Would not buy RIMM ever. Negative revenue outlook for the foreseeable future and poor customer review and reception of their products. Ugh.


----------



## larry81

imho, when considering risk/reward, a position in YLO has more upside potential than RIMM.

And this is coming from an (ex) hardcore blackberry fan


----------



## KaeJS

Abha said:


> I know the second that both co-CEO's step aside the stock will pop 8 - 10%


Very possible.



doctrine said:


> Would not buy RIMM ever.


I bought once at 56, sold at 54.

Will never buy it again.


----------



## dmers

*They will end up in ashes*

RIM has no real chance of surviving against Google, Apple and Samsung. They have missed way too many boats...


----------



## ddkay

Was aching for a pentaband phone and I dunno what I was thinking but I bought a BB 9900 (it's not pentaband). I hope next years qnx improvements are enough to turn these guys around again, even a little.. Google is kinda being rough right now http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2011/11/google-rubs-salt-blackberry/


----------



## jcgd

I just hate how hard a blackberry is to use. I like one button. It's like it knows what I want it to do.

I've also found they fall apart and good luck trying to get a new phone. Either you pay big $$$ for parts of big $$$ for a new phone.


----------



## ddkay

I take good care of my phones, still have a matte black RAZR V3 that looks brand new, just needs a new battery ~$10 on amazon


----------



## jerryhung

Just so people know, (good or bad is to be judged in future I guess)

Walmart/Staples/FutureShop/BestBuy PlayBook 16GB $199 starting Friday Nov 18


----------



## doctrine

If there is any stock you could make money from shorting with little downside, its RIMM.


----------



## daddybigbucks

jerryhung said:


> Just so people know, (good or bad is to be judged in future I guess)
> 
> Walmart/Staples/FutureShop/BestBuy PlayBook 16GB $199 starting Friday Nov 18


I just picked one up. I got 30 days to decide if i want it.


----------



## KaeJS

Anybody still think this is a good short at $17, or do you think this has gone too low, now?


----------



## andrewf

I don't think the risk/return makes sense to short from here. Do you honestly think RIM would be taken out for much less than the current $9 billion? The company isn't going to zero any time soon, either.


----------



## ddkay

You could short $15 to $12 relatively safely, but not here, it's still on major 9 year support levels, in fact it was up 1.11% at one point today on the TSE. If RIM goes below $15 in the short term, BAC will go below $5 and we have way bigger things to worry about.


----------



## Northern Engineer

I didn't read through the entire thread, but it seems to be RIM-bashing from start to finish. With all due respect (and as much for the sake of discussion as because I'm convinced), I'd like to bring forward the opposite view:

RIM-T is trading at ~3x earnings right now (call it 4x assuming the earnings report this December slips as expected). Pessimism and (more importantly) negative news is driving the price down much lower than it needs to go. None of the announcements regarding RIM's decrease in market share mentions that the smartphone market it growing tremendously, and they rarely mention that RIM is still the major player in the corporate world. They also normally only speak about the US market, not mentioning that RIM revenue from non-Western countries (not Canada, US or UK) has doubled every year for the last four years. As of fiscal 2011, the "Other" segment in RIM's annual report has overtaken the US as the largest market segment. While everybody we know personally is dropping their Blackberry's in favour of iPhones and "Superphones" (and taking the share price in the process), the rest of the world is still largely buying into the RIM brand.

I did the exercise of recalculating RIM's recent earnings without the benefit of North America and the UK, and still the current price represents only 10x earnings. Of course, this trend also won't last forever, and soon the international market will follow the trend set by US consumers, so this international revenue stream is only useful as a bridge while RIM gets back on track with producing devices that everybody wants to own.

Which brings us to their position going forward. RIM has $2B in cash and no debt. They are situated at Canada's best engineering school and when I was graduating 5 years ago, they had the pick of nearly anybody they wanted, as far as I could tell. While management has made some mistakes (many of them downright embarrassing), this is still the team that invented the smartphone, and they've got the resources to replicate that feat. If Apple's transition to post-Jobs suffers any hiccups at all, RIM will soon be in a position to start leading the pack with innovation again (let's face it, Android phones copy rather than innovate) and bring the share price back up to the triple digits.

Whew, that was a bit long-winded, but it was fun for me. Any thoughts?


----------



## Causalien

Yeah. 

You are one of the RIM engineer. Let me know if I am wrong.


----------



## Northern Engineer

Causalien said:


> Yeah.
> 
> You are one of the RIM engineer. Let me know if I am wrong.


You are wrong. Never worked there.
Even if I was, I was looking for discussiona nd sharing of ideas, not accusations of being a shill.


----------



## west5440

With the recent playbook debacle, it would seem that this stock will be going down further. It is one of the stock I watch, but it appears to be too risky at this point.


----------



## Lephturn

Northern Engineer said:


> Whew, that was a bit long-winded, but it was fun for me. Any thoughts?


Yep... the engineers are not the problem, management is. I see no sign of them pulling their heads out of... er... the ground ... yeah that's it.


----------



## kcowan

I agree that RIM is currently undervalued. Until management demonstrates some (any) marketing smarts, I think they are fairly valued. Show me any sign of good marketing, and I will re-evaluate.


----------



## rookie

stocks generally reflect the value in future, if Mr Market is right which it is 99% of times. and right now it is correctly reflecting the future.

its unfortunate of course that RIM is not doing much while it still can. being in the market for a smartphone without a contract, i find that iPhones are expensive and androids not very reliable. that doesnt leave me with much of a choice. nokia with new windows OS is still to prove its mettle. i do find that there is a void that RIM can fill, but god knows what they are upto and when they will do something...


----------



## kcowan

rookie said:


> androids not very reliable....


You should try the latest Samsung or Droid...


----------



## Northern Engineer

Lephturn said:


> Yep... the engineers are not the problem, management is. I see no sign of them pulling their heads out of... er... the ground ... yeah that's it.





kcowan said:


> I agree that RIM is currently undervalued. Until management demonstrates some (any) marketing smarts, I think they are fairly valued. Show me any sign of good marketing, and I will re-evaluate.


It's true that I'm thinking of their management in terms of their ability to drive innovation rather than their ability to market their products. Call it a professional bias .

It seems to me, though, that:

The playbook was more of a development flop than a marketing failure. People were very excited about it before they actually saw it.
More importantly, by the time we have seen convincing signs of marketing improvement, the opportunity for profit will be lost.

Maybe both of these are reasons to avoid RIM altogether (particularly the first, if I'm counting on them to innovate their way out of this mess). The marketing aspect is something I will have to wrap my head around.


----------



## Causalien

Had to know whether or not you are from RIM first. Anyway, I am a bear on this stock whose opinion and timing of RIM can be verified by ppl on this forum. The next event is coming. But because this is a public board I will have to refrain from stating what it might be. I am a Canadian so I refrained from shorting this stock. But man, they need to get their house in order.

GL to all who are still invested in this.
I have no position in RIM


----------



## doctrine

As I said earlier there is no way I would buy this stick. Amazing it's still in $17-18 range. The only Canadian stock I would actually consider shorting.


----------



## andrewf

Trading on inside info, eh?


----------



## rookie

kcowan said:


> You should try the latest Samsung or Droid...


my peeve is that the android apps have no clue as to which device they are going into and hence they can possibly end up overloading the OS and the hardware resources, screwing the rest of the phone functionality. Apple apps are more controlled and contained as they go only to a limited number of devices. so the app developers have an idea of the device limitations. An android 2.3 phone can now be bought for 75 bucks and such devices lack sufficient RAM. I could be fine with the high end phones, but as the OS version keeps changing, only few manufacturers support newer versions of OS. sometime back mode had posted a link showing the OS consistency, rather inconsistency and it clearly brings out the limitations of android devices.


----------



## m3s

rookie said:


> I could be fine with the high end phones, but as the OS version keeps changing, only few manufacturers support newer versions of OS. sometime back mode had posted a link showing the OS consistency, rather inconsistency and it clearly brings out the limitations of android devices.


That chart is here http://theunderstatement.com/post/11982112928/android-orphans-visualizing-a-sad-history-of-support

I disliked this stock on page 1 of this thread when all the Waterlooites defended it, almost as much as I disliked YLO when all the yield hunters still defended it


----------



## Causalien

andrewf said:


> Trading on inside info, eh?


Nah, supply chain checks and good old fashioned reading of 10q are not insider information. These are public information that nobody bothers to read because they are lazy.

I just have a bad feeling about a future of censored Internet and libel lawsuits. Anything you say is recorded forever.

You never know what could be outlawed next. Maybe reading 10q will be considered insider information in a few years. If that happens, I won't be staying in the country.

Anyway, it is inevitable that an oil exporting country during periods of high commodity will eventually kill off all high tech industries within its border.


----------



## ddkay

The voice dialer in Android is broken, specifically, the "Voice Search" app by Google in Android Market

If you say Call <contact>, Voice Search queries the Google search engine instead of pulling relevant info from your contact list. So depending on your contacts name, instead of calling them you might get the local pizza place.

http://www.google.com/support/forum/p/android/thread?tid=2926151a8ac66793&hl=en

This issue actually goes back a few years and has surprisingly never been fixed. I've tried on a rooted Nexus One with CM7.1 and a stock Nexus S with 2.3.6. Kind of annoying if you're driving and using hands-free mode.

Of course you can download 3rd party apps for this, but that's besides the point if we're comparing out-of-box functionality.

Happy to say the voice dialer works on my BBery though.


----------



## humble_pie

guys i don't believe stuff like this:

_mypeeveistthattheandroidappshhavenoclueasto whichdevicetheyaregoingintoandhencetheycanpossiblyendupoverloadingtheOSandthehardwareresources,screwingtherestofthephonefunctionality. Appleappsaremorecontrolledandcontinedastheyygoonlytoalimitednumbeerofdevices. sotheappdevelopershaveanideaofthedevicelimitations. Anandroid2.3phonecanowbeboughtfor75bucksandsuchdeviceslacksufficientRAM. Icouldbefinewiththehighendphones,butastheOSversionkeepschanging,onlyfewmanufacturerssupportnewerversionsofOS. sometimebackmodehadpostedalinkshowingtheOSconsistencyanditclearlybringsoutthelimitationsofandroiddevices._

then somebody else complains his voice dialer doesn't work on his device so i guess he had to use his thumb what next

(signed)
luddite cookie


----------



## rookie

well we are talking about smart phones. if we are paying the big bucks, they better be smart. i currently use a sub 50$ nokia phone to make/answer calls and it does a fantastic job at it. i have no complaints about that. now, if you expect 500 bucks from me, i do have a lot of expectations from you as well


----------



## humble_pie

oh thank you.
even a dumb crumb can understand now.


----------



## Jungle

Really good summary of all the negative events this year (wow) 
http://www.globalnews.ca/rim+reaps+grim+2011/6442543244/story.html

Rim reports after markets close today.


----------



## Jungle

I can't even open rim's webpage..


----------



## Jungle

Adjusted eps 1.27 vs 1.19. estimate (US), overall profit down 27%. 
Revenue slightly under estimate. 5.2B vs 5.261B. 

Future sales growth coming from emerging markets. 


Hmmmmm...............................................


----------



## Jungle

Wow shares down 6% already after close.


----------



## Causalien

We all know what it means when Technology based company CEO says emerging markets.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

$13.62 this morning! Wow! National Bank dropped target to $8!!! Terrible to see this Canadian success story being decimated. So many are being affected. I really hope this becomes a Cinderella story with a good comeback.


----------



## Jungle

They are now taking $1 pay and they own 10% of the company. They said that last night on the Lang and O'Leary show. Apparently people thought they owned 50% or something? 

Wow RIM @ $13?? Ok Seriously when should one buy, they are pricing this company like it's going bankrupt next year.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

I'm an index guy but I wonder if the valuation on RIMM is getting ridiculous. Look at the balance sheet. RIM has 525 million shares outstanding. Back out intangibles and goodwill and you get a book value as reported above $12. Give some of the line items a haircut and you are still looking at $11 or so. In this scenario, we are assuming that the value of patents is zero. We know this cannot be the case as we saw with Nortel and Motorola Mobility deals. But let's be conservative and say RIM's break-up value is $11 - $12. The stock is now trading at $13.32 which means that the entire RIMM business is thrown in for free. 

It seems to me that RIM is getting closer to a point where it becomes a heads you win, tails I don't lose type of investment. Of course, we are assuming here that current management will not piss away the company's resources and to be fair there is no indication that they are doing so. 

And for full disclosure, I do not own RIM.

http://www.rim.com/investors/documents/pdf/financial/2012/Q2_FY2012_Financial_Information.pdf


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> Wow RIM @ $13?? Ok Seriously when should one buy,* they are pricing this company like it's going bankrupt next year.*


Why delay/deny the inevitable? The company is useless now. 

I'm just angry I didn't short it at $54...

I've said it before, and I'll say it again that I'm never going to touch this stock. However, CC, even with the breakup value around $12, I would still feel safer shorting it than buying it.


----------



## Jungle

I'll be honest, even if this went under $10 I would probably never buy it. I'm too chicken. I won't touch any tech companies for that matter. 

We buy dividend stocks that have a long history of increasing dividends and that's about it. The rest of our portfolios are index funds. 

However in the mean time, I am following this stock and news stories.


----------



## OptsyEagle

In a bankrupt company like Nortel, I can see the patents to be of some residual value to another company that wants to pick up where Nortel left off. In an operating company like RIM, I do not. The reason is if an operating company cannot take those patents and build the product or secure the revenue stream with them, at a profitable rate, then how can they really be worth that much to anyone else?

I wouldn't say they are worthless, but I doubt they are worth more then a buck or two per share. That is just my opinion. Perhaps there is another way to look at it.


----------



## jtc

OptsyEagle said:


> In a bankrupt company like Nortel, I can see the patents to be of some residual value to another company that wants to pick up where Nortel left off. In an operating company like RIM, I do not.


FYI, RIM recently spent 770M acquiring Nortel patents.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

OptsyEagle said:


> In a bankrupt company like Nortel, I can see the patents to be of some residual value to another company that wants to pick up where Nortel left off. In an operating company like RIM, I do not.


It's hard to estimate the worth of a patent portfolio. That's why I did not even try and attempt it.

Patents for most large tech companies are defensive in nature. It is kind of like the old MAD doctrine. You hold patents because when a large competitor sues you for infringement, you can counter that the other party is infringing your patents. This is largely the reason why Google paid so much for Motorola Mobility and the reason why a bidding war broke out over Nortel's patents. Still, unless the patents are put up for sale, you have no idea what they are worth. IIRC, the consensus opinion on the value of Nortel's portfolio was $1 billion. Most were surprised at the $4.5 B final bid. Perhaps more important, you also want to keep patents from falling into the hands of patent trolls.


----------



## kcowan

I agree with CC that this stock is getting into the realm of a sure thing. I think I will buy some. I have Apple as my play in this field but this one is starting to look tempting.

I have not seen any indication of any marketing smarts from the company. (Except them firing their 2 executives on the Air Canada flight.) That is something that has to happen before any turnaround is possible. The question is: Will that happen before or after their price turnaround?


----------



## Causalien

Never value technology companies on fundamentals. That's the lesson I learned in y2k.

Anyway, it is sad to see RIMM wither as someone in the technology space. After RIMM, we have nothing else. I hope one day, we will open our eyes and see how the current policies are anti technology in general to promote a shift in rules. This inherent problem is the reason why 90% of my former co-workers relocated to the us within the past 5 years. Part of RIMM's problem is built into what Canada has become.


----------



## daddybigbucks

kcowan said:


> I agree with CC that this stock is getting into the realm of a sure thing. I think I will buy some. I have Apple as my play in this field but this one is starting to look tempting.
> 
> I have not seen any indication of any marketing smarts from the company. (Except them firing their 2 executives on the Air Canada flight.) That is something that has to happen before any turnaround is possible. The question is: Will that happen before or after their price turnaround?


RIM is gaining momentum in this downward spiral. And im not convinced an American company will buy out RIM.
I had a book value of $10 a couple quarters ago, and i redid my numbers and now i get a book value of $7.44.
I would buy at that level as my spreadsheet pretty much pays off all the debt and firesales everything.
I think the stock price is falling alot faster than the book value so i hope to catch it at the crux but will probably have to wait for another quarter or two.


----------



## cdnpennystocks

I was scared when I got out at $20, thinking it might bounce. Looks more like a sinking ship now. A bit too risky for my liking. 



KaeJS said:


> Why delay/deny the inevitable? The company is useless now.
> 
> I'm just angry I didn't short it at $54...
> 
> I've said it before, and I'll say it again that I'm never going to touch this stock. However, CC, even with the breakup value around $12, I would still feel safer shorting it than buying it.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

daddybigbucks said:


> I had a book value of $10 a couple quarters ago, and i redid my numbers and now i get a book value of $7.44.


Fair enough. I think we can reasonably disagree on RIM's tangible value. In any case, even if you figure the tangible value is around $11 like I did, it is not unreasonable to want a margin of safety on top of that. Just because valuations are ridiculous don't mean they won't get even more ridiculous.


----------



## doctrine

> Old 12-05-2011, 10:37 PM #243
> doctrine
> Senior Member
> 
> Join Date: Sep 2011
> Posts: 111
> 
> Default
> As I said earlier there is no way I would buy this stick. Amazing it's still in $17-18 range. The only Canadian stock I would actually consider shorting.


Target price.. $0? This company is in meltdown mode. If it even thought about hitting $20 again, I'd actually go ahead and make a short position.


----------



## Rommel

Good morning guys!

I love RIM but it is painful to see such careless management decisions and their value plummet like this. In terms of a buyout scenario my money is on Microsoft.

Consider the following:

Apple really has no use for RIM's assets (at RIM's current price) apart from their enterprise users and assuming that Apple's 5 year plans/corporate outlooks includes a larger penetration into the corporate world. Microsoft on the other hand is trying to push their mobile platform (very solid platform) to the world and is trying to find ways to gain a greater market share. It's a much easier sell for Microsoft in the corporate world since nearly every smartphone platform has compatibility for their products. Microsoft would love the international exposure that RIM has and well, Microsoft while considerably dead money for like a decade, has one of the strongest patent warchests around and RIM's patents would be like hitting a gold-mine for them.

Just my perspective and well, I would, as an investor, feel most comfortable with the above playing out if RIM doesn't rectify their mess.

Thoughts?


----------



## Uranium101

I believe the potential buyers of RIM patents are waiting for the company to spin off their patents into a different company.

it is like Rogers with their mulch-cultural channel scam. I just wanted a few channels, but they made me pay for the basic, VIP, and some garbage Chinese channels before I could register to those channels I wanted.

So, I believe buyers are just waiting for RIM to spin off.


----------



## jcgd

Maybe management will simply pull their heads outta their behinds and get with it. IF RIMM goes under, management does too. If I were them I would have some serious motivation to turn the company around.


----------



## Andrew

*RIM: Dead in the water or is there hope?*

Stocked dropped over 12% on Friday due bad earnings results. Revenue shrank Y/Y, Playbook sales were terrible and their new smartphone line up is delayed to potentially Q4 2012. 

I think every Canadian wants them to succeed because RIM is a Canadian company and one of our greatest sources of home grown innovation. 

I'd like to hear people's opinions. Can RIM recover or are they dead in the water?

Anyone buying at these levels? How much do you think their patents are worth?


----------



## KaeJS

Dead.

I've been thinking about shorting, not buying. But I'm not sure if I have the manpower to do it.


----------



## ddkay

Probably the last story of Canadian innovation, there are too many barriers to entry here.. especially in technology. I'm not going to bet on their success/failure, but I think they could turn around if they weren't only given a few quarters left. Lazaridis said BlackBerry OS 10 won't be out until the latter half of 2012... that's too late IMO.


----------



## screwjack

Just like the PC industry, the mobile phone industry increasingly looks like a commodity business, of course unless you are Apple. All the others seem to only know how to make iphone look alike knockoffs. 
Personally, I think many of these iphone substitutes are better at lower prices, but consumers seem to want nothing but a phone with a big apple logo at the back.


----------



## Homerhomer

jcgd said:


> If I were them I would have some serious motivation to turn the company around.


They do have the motivation but don't have the ability, unless they step down and someone capable is at the helm this company has no chance of surviving. Technology is not a sector one wants to be a value investor, either it's growth or be somewhere else.


----------



## madeincanada

RIM is for people that enjoy gambing. I'm still waiting for the day to short Apple I think we are near the top.


----------



## Andrew

screwjack said:


> Just like the PC industry, the mobile phone industry increasingly looks like a commodity business, of course unless you are Apple. All the others seem to only know how to make iphone look alike knockoffs.
> Personally, I think many of these iphone substitutes are better at lower prices, but consumers seem to want nothing but a phone with a big apple logo at the back.


True, but I'd say that many people are beginning to realize that there are better phones out there than the iPhone (ie. Samsung Galaxy S II) and have begun to shift away from the Apple brand.


----------



## KaeJS

madeincanada said:


> RIM is for people that enjoy gambing. I'm still waiting for the day to short Apple I think we are near the top.


Although I am currently long AAPL, I will probably sell after they release Q1 earnings in a month. 

Then I will sit back and wait for the short of a lifetime. 

Glad to see someone is on board with me


----------



## kcowan

As an early BB user (1999), I think they make great appliances. But like Amazon, they have to accept the fact that there is not margin in handsets. If they can reinvent themselves as a network/software/distribution company, they are in a great position to restore margins and growth. I do not see the current management doing that. QNX is yet another handset OS like webOS, Android at al. Late to the party too.


----------



## daddybigbucks

Not sure why the RIM board is over here (investing)

That news about Amazon looking to buy out RIM was a huge boost.
To know that something big is wanting to buy RIM before they are put out to pasture is worth alot in my books.

I think they should team up with another company but it looks like RIM's ego is a Do or Die scenerio.

I wont buy in but I am watching


----------



## Lephturn

Yeah, I think RIM is going to pull a Yahoo - turn down 2 or 3 great chances to sell when they should absolutely take them because the ego of the executives will over power their fiduciary responsibility.


----------



## Betzy

So for all us long Apple investors that would like to short it, is $420 the magic number for anyone else??
I own Rim


----------



## w0nger

i have a hunch in the back of my brain that i think RIM can make me money next year... I think i may buy some call options for 2013... maybe they'll have a good buy-out offer... or hostile takeover... i have a feeling that if a juicy enough offer makes it's way to the shareholders, Jag Financial is not going to be shy....


----------



## Belguy

Tim Horton's now has a larger market capitalization than does RIM.

Coffee and donuts beats Blackberry's!!

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2011/12/timbits-vs-rimbits.html


----------



## kcowan

Tweedle-dee and tweedle-dumb have made it clear that takeovers will not be considered. They need another year to prove they are incompetent (or not) and their Board has given it to them. It sounds like another Yahoo.


----------



## uptoolate

Just like Dandy Don used to sing on Monday night football, 
'Turn out the lights,...'


----------



## newbie

w0nger said:


> i have a hunch in the back of my brain that i think RIM can make me money next year... I think i may buy some call options for 2013... maybe they'll have a good buy-out offer... or hostile takeover... i have a feeling that if a juicy enough offer makes it's way to the shareholders, Jag Financial is not going to be shy....


RIM became a spec stock, but they hold a great value in their patents in their pocket.
if yahoo is a potential real take over, imagine Rim.
RIM is not nortel.
think about it this way, it is a gamble like a lot of stocks out there
JMO


----------



## Jungle

Apparently there is a report from the Financial Times that RIM will finally consider breaking up the co-CEO and possibly use board member Barbara Stymiest as the new CEO. 

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/03/rim-leaning-toward-new-chairman-sources/


----------



## ddkay

Mike Lazaridis, Jim Basillie resign as co-CEO/chairman of Research in Motion, effective immediately http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-23/rim-replaces-ceos-as-it-struggles-to-answer-apple.html


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Stock jumps 11% at open then falls back to????


----------



## Jungle

$12.00 after another bad year and dominance by Apple.


----------



## humble_pie

stymiest will be chair, heins CEO.

they are 5 & 4 year rim veterans, respectively. No sign of outside new blood being recruited.

as someone said recently, if stymiest wasn't able to pull anything off in 5 years, who'd expect her to now ?


----------



## ddkay

http://youtu.be/QUFwhpcrCTw

RIMs self-described problem according to Heins: "sometimes we innovate too much when we make new products"



Run for the exits


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Selling at $17.10 last Wednesday is starting to look like good timing.


----------



## cdnpennystocks

Ihatetaxes said:


> Selling at $17.10 last Wednesday is starting to look like good timing.


Definitely was, if you like the stock you might want to pick up a bit more now though. Personally I would stay out, seems like a coin toss to me


----------



## kcowan

Sadly I think they misread the opinion of The Street and decided to make cosmetic change when all their supporters wanted real change. Watch for renewed shorts.


----------



## humble_pie

everybody's read the street, this was an interim house team picked for their longterm familiaritiy with rim to shop it around.

nothing new going to happen, was anyone expecting ?

in play: value of patents, id of likely buyers, who is likely to pay what sort of premium.


----------



## MrMatt

humble_pie said:


> everybody's read the street, this was an interim house team picked for their longterm familiaritiy with rim to shop it around.
> 
> nothing new going to happen, was anyone expecting ?
> 
> in play: value of patents, id of likely buyers, who is likely to pay what sort of premium.


RIM also has good network knowledge and a strong understanding of security.
Their biggest problem is their handset experience sucks, and most people see them as a phone company.


----------



## somecanuck

MrMatt said:


> RIM also has good network knowledge and a strong understanding of security.
> Their biggest problem is their handset experience sucks, and most people see them as a phone company.


Networking knowledge? I'd say quite the opposite. It's not uncommon to hear of delays in email. And wasn't it just a few months ago when a busted core switch in a UK datacenter resulted in lengthy delays and lost messages? What kind of Mickey Mouse network topology can be taken down by a single core switch failing? Every major core switch sold by Cisco or equivalent has options for automatic redundancy and fail-over with no interruption in service.

That single network outage made them look like amateurs.


----------



## kcowan

somecanuck said:


> That single network outage made them look like amateurs.


and the late apology by the technical guy made them look amateur. A good marketing company would have had Balsillie out in front from hour one talking about what they were doing.


----------



## SlowandSteady60

*Rim-t*

Does anybody have any idea why RIM shot up 7.4% today. I haven't seen any news to reflect the trend. Any thoughts?


----------



## ddkay

Same as the last 5 or 6 times, takeover rumours...


----------



## doctrine

People buying back their shorts from $60? Or $45 or $30 or $20......


----------



## PMREdmonton

It is usually short squeeze or takeout rumours lately.

The stock definitely has value but if you want to have a margin of safety I'd wait for 11.00 or so before buying and even then you might be better off with long-term OTM calls. If the stock/company survives it will be worth a lot more than it is now. It does have some very useful assets and some very good patents and it still has the best messenger service running.

The devices it makes are very good at a level of efficiency in messaging, quality of the phone component and the qwerty keyboard. It is not as good an entertainment tool for the masses and this is why it loses out in the consumer segment.

I've tried out the BB QNX OS in the playbook and it is very, very good. I am hopeful the smartphones will pick up in their sales once it is integrated into the company's product but current management can't seem to execute on reasonable timeframes.

I have never owned any stock nor do I plan on buying any but I do like my new Playbook.


----------



## rookie

another bad news for RIMM, but a +ve one for MSFT

http://wmpoweruser.com/idc-develope...droid-is-dropping-in-favour-of-windows-phone/

disclosure: do not own any positions in either.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

I'm surprised the RIM thread is so quiet.

The stock is halted on pending news....


----------



## ddkay

Was halted pending earnings release & to announce more cuts in upper and middle management. It's back now.


----------



## Jungle

So results are bad, 3 executive quit, but did it hit or miss estimates? 
Thoughts on opening bell tomorrow?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Jungle said:


> but did it hit or miss estimates?


Missed 



> Thoughts on opening bell tomorrow?


Bloodbath


----------



## Chigu

HaroldCrump said:


> Missed
> 
> Bloodbath


Stock is up 6.65% at the moment to 14.60 I'm not sure if I should just take the loss and sell now. My ACB on RIM is $15.95. Take the loss or wait it out? Any opinions. It's not much of a dollar value loss, only about $200.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I would ask you why did you average down? 

I gather you have 150 sh; if you have been waiting to sell at a marginal loss, now might be your chance [to sell all or a %]. 

This is a very unpredictable stock; do what feels right for you.


----------



## kcowan

I bet you can recover your money just on confidence that the new CEO is making changes. The next quarter might be the time to sell before the reality strikes again.


----------



## humble_pie

how can one be confident in a new CEO or any CEO with such a huge obvious mop of false hair across his forehead


----------



## ddkay

How can anyone be trust a CEO that looks like Harper


----------



## mgr1397

Do you think that RIM will pass $17 anytime soon? Idk if I should just sell it at a loss and use the money elsewhere. I bought some at 16.50


----------



## PMREdmonton

kcowan said:


> I bet you can recover your money just on confidence that the new CEO is making changes. The next quarter might be the time to sell before the reality strikes again.


The old "Buy the rumour and sell on the news" trick.


----------



## SlowandSteady60

I have to say it again. Truly baffled. I've watched thhis stock for four years solid and it never ceases to amaze me how unpredictable it is. A company anounces bad news, everybody sells. RIM announces bad news, everybody buys ???? Is it a good time to buy? IMHO, I would say, no. It may be a good buy for short term, but the bottom has to fall out sooner or later. This one is just too up and down. As Clint Eastwood said, "Are you feeling lucky?"


----------



## mgr1397

No hope for this company


----------



## blin10

boggles my mind who would buy this pos, it's dead money.......... my friends keeps buying since 30's and I keep tell him what a mistake that is, but he's "confident", you just can't compete with apple+google ........i don't even care if this company triples later on, as of right now it is terrible investment, too many risks


----------



## Axcell

blin10 said:


> boggles my mind who would buy this pos, it's dead money.......... my friends keeps buying since 30's and I keep tell him what a mistake that is, but he's "confident", you just can't compete with apple+google ........i don't even care if this company triples later on, as of right now it is terrible investment, too many risks


Is RIM still a value trap?
Market capitalization is reaching the $5B threshold (at $5.9B right now.) Company has no debt on their B/S, $1B in cash, $2B of patents at fire sale values (extremely conservative valuation given they paid ~$800M for some of Nortel's patents.) $3B (cash + patents) + $2B premium = $5B. Not including the brand equity, other assets, etc. A little bit lower and the stock is looking like a bargain.


----------



## kcowan

Keep the powder dry. Wait for some evidence of a reversal. Will the CIBC/Rogers payments system turn things around? No it will take more than that.


----------



## ddkay

RIM is going on another round of job cuts beginning June 1


----------



## doctrine

This company's assets are losing value every day. Run for the hills. Short on the way there


----------



## Mockingbird

Another huge slide afterhours. Potential operating loss for the first quarter.

MB


----------



## MrPCMan

Heard on BNN today they have hired JPMorgan and RBC...and they are selling off the hardware inventory?? Are they getting out of hardware (phones) and just focusing on S/W?


----------



## webber22

It's already way below book value - maybe a potential takeover target for patents etc, so maybe a buy

OR

RIMMberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## sharbit

they need to tie in a partnership to recover. If they could partner with a big game company (ex Nintendo) I think that would be dynamite.

I would buy at about ~4M cap for takeover. GS jumping in is kind of preparation for that IMO.


----------



## londoncalling

I remember people saying yellow was a buy on opportunity of a takeover when it hit the $5.00 threshold. Look where that went. I'm not saying RIM is yellow or even Nortel for that matter but the management sure ran this ship aground and I don't see any chances of it getting back onto the open waters. The tech game is tough and this companies management thought they were invincible. Looks like they were wrong. Hard to say where support or takeover target will be for this one. 4M market cap? maybe...


----------



## PMREdmonton

The problem for RIM is they announced a long time ago that they were switching over to a new OS based on QNX.

But then they release it for their tablet but missing a lot of native apps that people expected and with some major bugs. They got those fixed and actually did produce a very good product. But in the meantime everyone else has moved on and produced new product but still no BB smartphone based on the QNX operating system is available. The previous management really screwed everything up by not focusing on coming out with a tablet but not a smartphone. People who want a Blackberry are probably delaying the purchase until the new phones come out.

If they can produce a good phone they still have quite a bit of visibility and still have many governments and businesses that want to use their phones for uber-security reasons. There are people who I know who still prefer BBs and I've met quite a few people who have regretted going over the Iphone and intend to go back on their next purchase.

So I still think the business is salvageable but they have to produce this phone on time without any major glitches and it has to knock the ball out of the park. All the telecoms are desperate for a 3rd player to compete against Android and Apple so as to decrease the leverage Google and Apple have right now.

Again, based on their Playbook I think they can produce a product better than Apple but they just need to get one out there soon. I have been waiting to buy one for about a year now and am growing frustrated with the wait.


----------



## 0xCC

sharbit said:


> I would buy at about ~4M cap for takeover. GS jumping in is kind of preparation for that IMO.


I hope you mean 4B, not 4M. RIM generates close to 1B in cash flow from its network service business per quarter and increases its cash position by around $100M per quarter if they don't do any acquisitions or buy patents or something. I'd buy the company myself for $4M.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

OxCC I will chip in with you ok


----------



## MikeT

PMREdmonton: they CANNOT compete with apple. If you think they can produce something better, then you don't get it and you probably shouldn't invest much in tech.

I predicted layoffs and here they are. 

Now at a certain price there will be a takeover. Want to make some money? Figure out the intrinsic value and buy below that because there will be money to be made. I'll give you a hint, it ain't 11 dollars.

I hold out hope that Microsoft will be the bidder, but their leadership has its own issues.


----------



## Axcell

MikeT said:


> PMREdmonton: they CANNOT compete with apple. If you think they can produce something better, then you don't get it and you probably shouldn't invest much in tech.
> 
> I predicted layoffs and here they are.
> 
> Now at a certain price there will be a takeover. Want to make some money? Figure out the intrinsic value and buy below that because there will be money to be made. I'll give you a hint, it ain't 11 dollars.
> 
> I hold out hope that Microsoft will be the bidder, but their leadership has its own issues.


At today's close.. RIM doesn't need to be compared to Apple or Microsoft to be considered a buy. Forget earnings, just look at their value as a company today.

RIM's market cap as of today is $5B (assuming today's lows of $10.01/share on the NASDAQ.) They have $2B of cash, experts value RIM's patents on the LOW and extremely conservative side at $2B. A buyer would have to pay at least a 20% premium (or $1B.) Therefore on the low side, RIM is worth at least $5B today. No debt on the balance sheet, and I am excluding all of their other assets (which of course have some value.) Compelling case? 
RIM's management team just needs to realize that they will only deplete shareholder value by continuing with Blackberry 10 and that the best option is to sell-off the company and retain value for shareholders. 

RIM is trading at HALF of its book value right now... insane. But in full disclosure, I am one of the suckers who has had RIM for over a week now in my most recent trading activity (got in at $12/share which I thought was enticing.) I'll be averaging down if we ever touch below $9.75 which I would consider a bottom.. though today's price action is a great entry for a speculative pick. Time will tell.


----------



## doctrine

If RIM starts posting operating losses, starts writing off its $1B (!) of inventory of BB phones that no one wants, they can quickly burn through their assets, and you may never see that $5B if management refuse to return value to shareholders over believing in the "dream".


----------



## dubmac

I've never seen a company above 5B mkt cap with a PE of 4.6. wow


----------



## Axcell

doctrine said:


> If RIM starts posting operating losses, starts writing off its $1B (!) of inventory of BB phones that no one wants, they can quickly burn through their assets, and you may never see that $5B if management refuse to return value to shareholders over believing in the "dream".


In my calculations I excluded the $1B of inventory.. and assumed it at zero. RIM was still a buy at $10.01. Even if their cash balance drops to $1.5B, the assets are worth more than $0.5B making my calculations still valid.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

doctrine said:


> If RIM starts posting operating losses, starts writing off its $1B (!) of inventory of BB phones that no one wants, they can quickly burn through their assets, and you may never see that $5B if management refuse to return value to shareholders over believing in the "dream".


Maybe no one wants in Canada but I can tell you for 100% people love Blackberries in the middle east. No one uses the iphone there. BBM is super popular for lots of people who work out side of the country of birth.


----------



## sharbit

0xCC said:


> I hope you mean 4B, not 4M


Yes, 4B sorry.

I was thinking 4B and then 2.5B however this is more speculation then I usually do. I might not even bother if other stuff keeps dropping. There's getting to be some good deals out there.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Axcell said:


> At today's close.. RIM doesn't need to be compared to Apple or Microsoft to be considered a buy. Forget earnings, just look at their value as a company today.
> 
> RIM's market cap as of today is $5B (assuming today's lows of $10.01/share on the NASDAQ.) They have $2B of cash, experts value RIM's patents on the LOW and extremely conservative side at $2B. A buyer would have to pay at least a 20% premium (or $1B.) Therefore on the low side, RIM is worth at least $5B today. No debt on the balance sheet, and I am excluding all of their other assets (which of course have some value.) Compelling case?
> RIM's management team just needs to realize that they will only deplete shareholder value by continuing with Blackberry 10 and that the best option is to sell-off the company and retain value for shareholders.
> 
> RIM is trading at HALF of its book value right now... insane. But in full disclosure, I am one of the suckers who has had RIM for over a week now in my most recent trading activity (got in at $12/share which I thought was enticing.) I'll be averaging down if we ever touch below $9.75 which I would consider a bottom.. though today's price action is a great entry for a speculative pick. Time will tell.


The thing that I disagree with is how a buyer would have to pay a 20% premium...this is a stock that's lost over 75% of it's market value in the past year. Why would anyone pay a premium for a stock dropping like a rock? Why not wait another month and it'll be at $8 and then offer for $6/share? 

The only value left in the company are the patents and possibly the existing enterprise contracts...the rest of it is just a pain to liquidate and clear out. But the way things are going, how long will Enterprises stick with Blackberry's? Their market share there is dropping quickly as well.


----------



## HaroldCrump

A lot of their "assets" that are being considered to assign a fair breakup price are losing value fast and furious.
For instance, they are losing the enterprise contracts and presence.
Up until now, they had operating profits and cash flow - now that is going away fast.
They have free cash on their balance sheets ($1.5B or whatever), but it doesn't take long for $1B to disappear these days.

Sure, some patents will be left but it's likely the bid values for those are falling steadily as time goes by.

My concern with the valuations based on breakup value and fair book values is that the basis of those estimates is steadily falling.


----------



## Vitalogy80

HaroldCrump said:


> A lot of their "assets" that are being considered to assign a fair breakup price are losing value fast and furious.
> For instance, they are losing the enterprise contracts and presence.
> Up until now, they had operating profits and cash flow - now that is going away fast.
> They have free cash on their balance sheets ($1.5B or whatever), but it doesn't take long for $1B to disappear these days.
> 
> Sure, some patents will be left but it's likely the bid values for those are falling steadily as time goes by.
> 
> My concern with the valuations based on breakup value and fair book values is that the basis of those estimates is steadily falling.


Ya, I agree...I think anytime you're buying a stock on the hopes of a takeover, that's setting yourself up to fail. What happens if they aren't bought out and the stock drops another 50%?


----------



## Eclectic12

Vitalogy80 said:


> Ya, I agree...I think anytime you're buying a stock on the hopes of a takeover, that's setting yourself up to fail. What happens if they aren't bought out and the stock drops another 50%?


*grin* - that one's easy!

You now have capital losses to write-off against other capital gains, unless it is in a registered account. :upset:


Cheers


----------



## MikeT

The premium and trading prices are illusions. You can buy some shares at current trading price (the ones for sale), but you can't buy all of them (or even enough for a takeover). There will be a premium, and that's where there's money to be made. This is a trade. Not an investment.


----------



## Vitalogy80

MikeT said:


> The premium and trading prices are illusions. You can buy some shares at current trading price (the ones for sale), but you can't buy all of them (or even enough for a takeover). There will be a premium, and that's where there's money to be made. This is a trade. Not an investment.



OK, possibly...but what if the premium is they'll buy the stock for $5/share when it's dropped down to $4 in 6 months? To buy it on the hopes of "it can't go down anymore" is dangerous.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Vitalogy80 said:


> OK, possibly...but what if the premium is they'll buy the stock for $5/share when it's dropped down to $4 in 6 months? To buy it on the hopes of "it can't go down anymore" is dangerous.


A buyout will probably result in making it a private enterprise, integrated into an existing company, or be sold off piece by piece.


----------



## doctrine

There is nothing here and the stock in my opinion is essentially worthless, even at $1. They won't sell this company until they have as much debt as equity and that means a grand total of $0 for shareholders.


----------



## HaroldCrump

This stock has now done a full 360 degree turn to back where it was more than 10 years ago.
Since hitting its high of nearly $150 in the summer of 2008, the stock has lost over 93% of its peak value.
It is amazing that it has taken them nearly 4 years to even accept that there is a problem, and make some reluctant management changes.


----------



## PMREdmonton

As for whether they can compete with Apple on production of a product, Playbook answers that question. It has better functionality than the ipad, IMO. The thing that favors ipad is the rich assortment of apps because Apple got there first and thus has the most developers. As for the hardware and OS integration I think the Playbook is a superior product. Whether they can out market Apple - no they cannot yet. But that is a different question.

You also have to remember that there is a whole market outside of the USA. In Europe, iphone is far from dominant. I think they have about 10% share of the market there. In the growing emerging markets, BBs are popular because they are so good at bandwidth management. 

Again, I think this one can be a great turnaround story because they still have the talent and ability to make a great product. They do have to do away with whatever is currently preventing them from intoducing products to the market faster. The transition to BB10 has been horrifically slow. If they can solve that problem they can definitely get back in the game. This is tech, what was down and out can definitely come back and dominate - look at Apple. What was once dominant can get thrown by the wayside - look at Sony, BB and Nokia. That which never was can rise up and compete - look at Samsung now. Those who think Apple will forever be dominant are far too confident as the history of tech argues otherwise.


----------



## londoncalling

I don't question their market share outside of N America. I don't even question their management... the reason I don't question their management is because they have long since proved they don't have a clue of what they did, are doing or going to do... They spent more time trying to get an NHL franchise than they did paying attention to a crumbling empire. :disgust: That arrogance alone, for me, excluded ever considering this stock no matter how cheap it gets. They've had problems for the last few years and chose to ignore them. It took a huge fall for the board to even realize that the ones in charge should step back. For shareholders sake I hope it is not too late.

Edit: I've loved Samsung for years. all my tvs, monitors and now smartphone are Samsung products. Great product.


----------



## kcowan

Their bet on QNZ is wrong-headed. It is another OS like WebOS was. And even then they are having trouble delivering it. It might have been a good strategy before Android, iOS and Windows were in the space. Why do they hire investment bankers if QNX is going to save them?


----------



## Causalien

doctrine said:


> There is nothing here and the stock in my opinion is essentially worthless, even at $1. They won't sell this company until they have as much debt as equity and that means a grand total of $0 for shareholders.


Then there's the Canadian government. Which will prevent any takeover. I am pretty sure it factors into a lot of exec's mind. And they will just point at the nortel precedence and say: "Why deal with a dinosaur government when you can just wait and pick up all the portfolio for 1~2billions when it goes bankrupt?


----------



## PMREdmonton

If you've used QNX compared to iOS the thing that stands out to me is the ability to smoothly multi-function and go from on application to the next. It is eons better than iOS.

I really like my Playbook - great little device. My wife likes Apple and initially she was skeptical about Playbook but she now really likes it and uses it all the time around the home. She finds its use to be much better than her Apple device.


----------



## MikeT

PMREdmonton said:


> If you've used QNX compared to iOS the thing that stands out to me is the ability to smoothly multi-function and go from on application to the next. It is eons better than iOS.
> 
> I really like my Playbook - great little device. My wife likes Apple and initially she was skeptical about Playbook but she now really likes it and uses it all the time around the home. She finds its use to be much better than her Apple device.


Wow, now you're really out to lunch. Do you work for rim? Trying to jack up your share price? Please. What's better is decided by the market, not by a few geeks with anecdotal stories about their own likes and dislikes. Save your money, don't invest in tech anymore.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

MikeT said:


> Wow, now you're really out to lunch. Do you work for rim? Trying to jack up your share price? Please. What's better is decided by the market, not by a few geeks with anecdotal stories about their own likes and dislikes. Save your money, don't invest in tech anymore.


Bit harsh there Mike....


----------



## HaroldCrump

I have been using and watching operating systems of all kinds for many years now - from the BSD System V UNIX out of Bell Labs to the latest Windows 8, from early mobile O/S like the Palm Pilot to the latest fancy-smanzy iOS.
My reaction these days are a big yawn.

I don't think the QNX is going to change anything.
There has been so much anticipation and expectation built up that it will all be a big let-down.
Most likely the company will be late with its release (surprise, surprise).
When it does come up, there will inevitably be bugs, quirks, etc because of all the rush and pressure that the programmers would have been under.

RIM management seems to have put all their eggs in this one basket - maybe because there is nowhere else to turn to.

I wish them well, but I am worried it will all be a big let down.
I could, of course, be wrong and that's fine I wish them well.
But that is the reason I don't buy tech stocks like this.


----------



## Causalien

If history is any precedence. We'll have time after the product release to get in if it is a good turn around product like the iPod was.


----------



## buhhy

MikeT said:


> Wow, now you're really out to lunch. Do you work for rim? Trying to jack up your share price? Please. What's better is decided by the market, not by a few geeks with anecdotal stories about their own likes and dislikes. Save your money, don't invest in tech anymore.


Have you used a playbook? QNX was a good OS killed by bugs, missing key applications and lack of app support. Gestures are great, and IMO are the best ways to navigate around an OS.

Anyways, anyone seeing a repeat of the playbook release debacle? Over-hyped and under-delivered. Especially given the urgency to rush out OS10 before the market is completely locked out by iPhone 5, Galaxy S3, and WP8 Nokia Lumia phone.


----------



## andrewf

It's hard to be positive about this company's future. It's a shame -- I have a lot of friends that work there.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Now admittedly I bought Playbook a year after their release but just before release of OS2. So I bought, OS2 was available the next day and the thing has worked great with no major bugs that I've noticed. Every so often I have to log back into my wifi connection but that takes only a few seconds. I really like keying on the board with all the word choices that come up and save me time and errors. Websites load up quick. I can change apps really quickly. I can go to all sorts of different features of the device very quickly and very intuitively.

So I do agree that iteration one of the Playbook was done poorly. I also disagree with slandering version 2. We also have to remember that the original iphone also had a ton of issues as did the first version of Android. I merely view this as a launching point for them and I hope they continue on with BB10.

Disclosure: I don't work for the company and I don't own any shares nor do I necessarily anticipate buying any shares soon. I do believe Playbook 2.0 is a very good device and I do hope RIM has a good future. I do fully plan on buying a BB10 a month after they come it if they are working well.


----------



## Axcell

Causalien said:


> Then there's the Canadian government. Which will prevent any takeover. I am pretty sure it factors into a lot of exec's mind. And they will just point at the nortel precedence and say: "Why deal with a dinosaur government when you can just wait and pick up all the portfolio for 1~2billions when it goes bankrupt?


Where did you infer that the Canadian government would prevent any takeover for RIM? 
That statement was proven void if you do your homework. The Canadian government will not stand in the way of a takeover.


----------



## m3s

I've used the QNX car interfaces before the takeover. It was a good move in the right direction by RIM, but likely too little far too late. Apple has acquired far more software companies that would indicate they have been working on something exactly to decimate what little market QNX had cornered. I've said before that there is still huge potential for the car computer market (because QNX lacks any bold innovation). People were skeptical but I think it's pretty obvious, and there are many parallels between a smartphone and a car computer. Sure RIM made a playbook, like eons after Apple made one.. so did they eventually get the email to work on it?..


----------



## Hugo Reyes

Does anyone think we'll see a slight spike near or just before the release of the new phones? I'm pretty well ready to cut my losses, but can't help but wonder if I can make a little bit of my money back by waiting until later this year. Opinions?


----------



## avrex

RIMM falls below $10 on the US markets.

<shrug>


----------



## GOB

PMREdmonton said:


> Now admittedly I bought Playbook a year after their release but just before release of OS2. So I bought, OS2 was available the next day and the thing has worked great with no major bugs that I've noticed. Every so often I have to log back into my wifi connection but that takes only a few seconds. I really like keying on the board with all the word choices that come up and save me time and errors. Websites load up quick. I can change apps really quickly. I can go to all sorts of different features of the device very quickly and very intuitively.
> 
> So I do agree that iteration one of the Playbook was done poorly. I also disagree with slandering version 2. We also have to remember that the original iphone also had a ton of issues as did the first version of Android. I merely view this as a launching point for them and I hope they continue on with BB10.
> 
> Disclosure: I don't work for the company and I don't own any shares nor do I necessarily anticipate buying any shares soon. I do believe Playbook 2.0 is a very good device and I do hope RIM has a good future. I do fully plan on buying a BB10 a month after they come it if they are working well.


The problem is that the original iPhone and iPad were the first of their kind. A few kinks were acceptable because there were no other compelling options. RIM's first Playbook came at a time when the iPad was already amazingly popular and getting more and more refined. The fact that the second iteration is "good" or "decent" is really meaningless because they are too late to the game. The same will be the case with BB10 - they may manage to salvage some of the enterprise market but the consumer market is long gone with iOS and Android. It doesn't even matter anymore if BB10 is great - they are years late to the party.

This is what happens to a company that sits on its laurels because they in a dominant position and refuses to adapt or pay heed to competition. It's sad that it has to be a flagship Canadian company, but it is what it is. I am a big believer in Apple because they are always pushing things forward while continuing to dominate. The minute they take the foot off the pedal is when I look for an exit.


----------



## MikeT

Nokia announces its problems today. Microsoft had one chance to compete and that was to buy RIM. Instead they made a deal with Nokia. Balmer should be ousted now. Horrible tech leader with no vision. At this point it's too late for both Microsoft and Rim. They are relegated to also-ran status, making cheap alternatives to the leader's products. Nice work Balmer.


----------



## MoneyMaker

MikeT said:


> Nokia announces its problems today. Microsoft had one chance to compete and that was to buy RIM. Instead they made a deal with Nokia. Balmer should be ousted now. Horrible tech leader with no vision. At this point it's too late for both Microsoft and Rim. They are relegated to also-ran status, making cheap alternatives to the leader's products. Nice work Balmer.


windows phone is nothing for microsoft like xbox.. it's almost a pet project... they make 90% from office/windows


----------



## Rysto

MikeT said:


> Nokia announces its problems today. Microsoft had one chance to compete and that was to buy RIM.


I don't think that MS buying RIM could ever have worked, really. Remember, RIM bought QNX two years ago and still hasn't been able to release new QNX-based phones. MS buying RIM and switching the BB over to Windows Phone would have meant at least another two years of development, during which time MS is shipping BBs based on BB OS, which are dead on arrival as people wait for the WP-based versions (and probably switch to Android/iOS while they're waiting).


----------



## sharbit

MikeT said:


> Balmer should be ousted now. Horrible tech leader with no vision. At this point it's too late for both Microsoft and Rim.


He's been doing an awsome job growing revenues every year he's been in control. That's nothing to sneeze at.


----------



## kcowan

RIM executives payouts: $22 million
G&M


----------



## Beaver101

And is it adequate? Wonder if they will further sue for being forced out? Thoughts?


----------



## mgr1397

Selling RIM tomorrow, taking my losses and moving on.


----------



## Jungle

Sorry to hear about the losses. After hours down 15% now..


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Very very sad to see a Canadian success story being flushed and thousands of jobs being lost.


----------



## MikeT

You all seem to want to quote me and disagree with me. Ok. I just made a fortune off puts today so I'm in a good mood anyway.

Rim + msft had capacity to compete. Alone neither does. Your tech strategies listed above aren't what "would" have happened anyways so it's moot to argue them. Those are ideas from people who don't understand tech. The guy above who thinks Balmer is doing a good job is also speaking from a finance/business perspective. You'd think differently if you understood tech better. It sounds insulting to say that so directly, so my apologies in advance. He looks great on paper this year. But what have they actually done? What market have they won back? Where are the innovations everyone wants? It's not advancing anymore. 

Back to rim. So now the only question is bankruptcy or takeover? I say takeover as their IP is too valuable to leave to the bankruptcy court. He has a responsibilty to shareholders to give you some value. Bankruptcy means the stock goes to zero and I don't think that will happen. Then the question becomes what is the price? We're getting closer.


----------



## sags

I agree with you that tech has to constantly evolve and avoid the big pitfalls that put them out of favor with the public.

On the BNN "app" show they were talking about a new and rising social networking platform. It is exactly the opposite of Facebook in that it only allows a limited number of "contacts". The premise is "exclusivity" and sorting out all the friends of friends of friends kind of garbage on Facebook.

Interesting to note during the conversation, none of the people were using Facebook much anymore and they considered it too cluttered and resembling their old MySpace pages from years ago.

The only tech company I have faith in is Google. They own the internet and everyone else depends on them.


----------



## Sherlock

Bought 200 shares today at 7.50. If it gets bought out what do you guys think my profits will be?


----------



## ddkay

You might make a buck on days of overall market strength but RIM won't get bought out. This ship has sailed.

No new handsets
BB10 gets delayed until 2013 severely disappointing the few that remain in their fanbase

The rumour is they delayed BB10 because BBM still isn't compatible. There is more than 1 way to do secure chat, there is just "less secure" and "more secure". Device level encryption is nice, but is it really necessary? At the expense of limiting your market? They could have made BBM multi-platform years ago and forced over-top asymmetric encryption with OTR. A lot of people would have even paid a small recurring dollar to keep their contacts. But now, I only have 3 online and it won't be long until they're gone too. No one wants to be tied to a proprietary system when you make everything about it suck. No apps, photos look like they're taken with a cell phone camera from 10 years ago. It's over, RIP...


----------



## doctrine

Is this a great a deal at $7.50 as it was when it previously dropped to $10, $15, $20, $30, $50, and $75?

How much can you lose? Yes, you can lose 100%.


----------



## Sherlock

You can lose 100% on any stock.


----------



## PMREdmonton

This one is now starting to get interesting as a contrarian play/ takeover candidate at this valuation. They still have a ton of valuable assets from patents, brand, IP, etc. So there definitely is value there if someone can come in and make things work. This whole shift to the new OS has been botched. The odd thing is they got the Playbook out there last year with the update working great. The Playbook's innate functionality is incredible compared to the Ipad. It is a shame that all the sheeple can't figure it out for themselves. It was also a great size for true portability. We frequently bring Playbook with us when we go out but the other tablet stays in the house. Playbook is a great size for an e-reader but we don't use Ipad for this purpose anymore.

If only they could get that damn new smartphone on the market. All those who want to support the company are putting off sales until the new phones come out. They have killed themselves by annoucing this change was coming so long ago and then failing to execute the strategy on time with several major delays now. I do think they have the cash to hang in there for awhile but they have to get their product to the market soon.


----------



## m3s

NORTEL has lots of patents as well.. This shouldn't come as a surprise, BB was left in the dust years ago but people still thought they needed a tiny keyboard. There are many legitimate reasons for the sheeple to use an iPad instead of investing in a dying breed. I strong ecosystem of users and developers makes a lot of difference. I agree about the portability, but many Androids do that as well.


----------



## Jay

PMREdmonton said:


> If only they could get that damn new smartphone on the market. All those who want to support the company are putting off sales until the new phones come out. They have killed themselves by annoucing this change was coming so long ago and then failing to execute the strategy on time with several major delays now. I do think they have the cash to hang in there for awhile but they have to get their product to the market soon.


Sadly, I don't see it happening... the company is fundamentally broken from an R&D point of view, and it has been for several years now. To put it simply - if you look up how to develop great software, RIM is doing the opposite in almost every way, and is actually moving backward. QNX represented a bright hope - the fact that it was a smaller company built on similar fundamentals as to what originally made RIM great... unfortunately, it's looking more and more like it's just another arm of the zombie-RIM, rather than a sprout for a new beginning. As someone fairly familiar with both Nortel and RIM, I think RIM's downfall will be much harder and faster than Nortel's. Nortel was made up of several viable business units that could be sold off intact - with most employees keeping their jobs. RIM's desirable assets appear to be mostly pieces of paper to be auctioned to the highest bidder... with little interest in the businesse(s) behind them.


----------



## Sherlock

I interviewed at RIM in 09 for a software developer position and I got a very negative impression of the company. The two interviewers were very smug and condescending, and the questions they asked me were all behavioral questions, eg why should we hire you, why do you want to work at rim, what do you know about rim, etc. There were no technical questions. I guess they would have given me a second technical interview if they liked my answers to the behavioral questions. At most companies I've interviewed at, the first interview is a technical interview where they ask questions that ascertain how good you are in the type of work you'd be doing, eg if you're interviewing for a java developer position, they get you to write java methods on the whiteboard, and they ask you questions on computer science theory. RIM made no attempt to evaluate my technical abilities, I could've been a whiz developer and they'd never know. The word around town is that people don't get hired there based on merit, but if you know a good friend or a relative there then you're in. They're also highly biased in favor of U of Waterloo grads. I believe it's this attitude that is responsible for their downfall. They believed they were too good to get overtaken by apple/google and got complacent with their early success, and refused to acknowledge how big of a threat apple and android really were.


----------



## Causalien

Sherlock said:


> I interviewed at RIM in 09 for a software developer position and I got a very negative impression of the company. The two interviewers were very smug and condescending, and the questions they asked me were all behavioral questions, eg why should we hire you, why do you want to work at rim, what do you know about rim, etc. There were no technical questions. I guess they would have given me a second technical interview if they liked my answers to the behavioral questions. At most companies I've interviewed at, the first interview is a technical interview where they ask questions that ascertain how good you are in the type of work you'd be doing, eg if you're interviewing for a java developer position, they get you to write java methods on the whiteboard, and they ask you questions on computer science theory. RIM made no attempt to evaluate my technical abilities, I could've been a whiz developer and they'd never know. The word around town is that people don't get hired there based on merit, but if you know a good friend or a relative there then you're in. They're also highly biased in favor of U of Waterloo grads. I believe it's this attitude that is responsible for their downfall. They believed they were too good to get overtaken by apple/google and got complacent with their early success, and refused to acknowledge how big of a threat apple and android really were.


Pretty much what the old school tech companies do from my experience. First the behavioral interview, then the technical and finally the boss with the hiring decision comes in to see if he likes you. These are standard questions used to weed up problematic people and I believe they want to see how you answer question, not the actual answer... assuming the person is a good interviewer.


----------



## Jay

I've turned down a few jobs at RIMM (though I did work a few co-op terms there)...as recently as a year ago (best career move I've ever made). For me it was their attitude that I should be greatful of getting a job offer from them - that everyone wants to work there, and that they have so many other candidates lined up. They were clearly an R&D operation in chaos (and I have several friends there who could give me the internal perspective), and seemed uninterested in providing any solid reasons why I should leave an otherwise comfortable job to go work with teams that were clearly all over their heads. I've also interviewed with other larger, more successful companies in the US, and the ego RIM's HR staff and interviewers displayed was unprecedented... I think this massive internal hubris is what played a large part in the company's downfall. There are likely still employees in Waterloo that believe that they work for the best company in Canada and that there is nothing to learn from outside the walls of RIM....they'll believe that until they're handed their papers.


----------



## Sherlock

So it wasn't just me then, other people got the same impression as I did.


----------



## Axcell

Stock up 10% in a few days. Finally the market is realizing the absurd valuation being assigned to RIM. With $2.2B in cash and cash equivalents, having an enterprise value of $1.5B was absurd. Patents are surely worth more than $1B and a buyer would be willing to pay a $500M premium for the brand.


----------



## Sherlock

People were making similar justifications when the stock was at $30, yet it continued to plummet. RIM is just too risky right now, unless you already have a lot of shares with a higher ACB then you may as well hold on and hope for the best.

I sold my shares today, made a hundred bucks in a few days. Too scared to hold on.


----------



## Lucy

Axcell said:


> Stock up 10% in a few days. Finally the market is realizing the absurd valuation being assigned to RIM. With $2.2B in cash and cash equivalents, having an enterprise value of $1.5B was absurd. Patents are surely worth more than $1B and a buyer would be willing to pay a $500M premium for the brand.



Trade what you see, not what you think because you don't know, what you don't know and all stocks are bad unless they go up. Scan for the winners. There are plenty. No need to wallow with the losers. That 10% may be a pullback from the shorts covering for the weekend. Jm2cents.


----------



## daddybigbucks

Sherlock said:


> Too scared to hold on.


Really?
10% is ok but im holding for more, alot more.
RIM is completely skeletonized and they do have a dedicated following. 
Considering it gained 5% today in a down market, i think there is life in it yet.


----------



## Axcell

daddybigbucks said:


> Really?
> 10% is ok but im holding for more, alot more.
> RIM is completely skeletonized and they do have a dedicated following.
> *Considering it gained 5% today in a down market, i think there is life in it yet*.


My thoughts exactly. The reason why I didn't sell today.
Lucy, unfortunately, I do have a much higher average cost price. And yes, many were making those claims back at $30.. I wasn't one of those individuals. According to my calculations, a $5-6B market cap was a bottom. I bought in at around $11.50/share on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Haven't averaged down yet, though I wish I did. This was back when I was expecting BB10 to be launched this year. But even with BB10 pushed back to 2013, the company is still worth at LEAST $4B today just simply based on cash and patents. Remember, they recently bought QNX and Nortel patents. Together, they are worth $1B. $1B + $2.2B cash = $3.2B. $800M is the premium a buyer would pay. This is on the low side of calculations. I am hoping a buyer would see value in RIM's other patents, its brand and followers, its other assets (land, buildings, etc.) No debt on the balance sheet.


----------



## Lucy

Wish you luck. I used to trade like you. Using the words "hoping" and "averaging down" are contrary to what the greatest traders would advise. Good luck.


----------



## Causalien

1/5 of the work force, I can see it as just the fat. 1/3rd in tech means you are amputating your remaining limbs. They either have to cut Q&A, costumer service , or worst, 33% across the board. In that case, too much knowledge got lost.

A great man once told me how to evaluate a tech firm: Are they hiring? Good? Are they cutting stuff instead of letting attrition run off? GTFO

Also, don't value the patent portfolio in your investment choices. We've all seen too many whose stocks went to mere cents before bankruptcy. AND only after bankruptcy did the patents get sold to feed bondhders and other investors with more priority. Patent != stock value.


----------



## chaudi




----------



## Toronto.gal

Old news already.

Silly video.


----------



## corezz

Thank god i dropped them back in January. I was already bleeding cash and was a bit down at the time now i know i was lucky to have gotten out. Sad to see such a titan fall to its knees soley because of Apple, primarily. Funny that a computer company had to show the telecomm industry how it was done despite people like RIMM making it their business for decades earlier. Evolution i guess.


----------



## kcowan

Complacency is a serious problem among technology executives. The secret is to constantly be looking for competing offerings and then aggressively pursue introducing them first. Lazaridis mistakenly thought their mail ecosystem would serve as a barrier to entry. And they did not perceive the iPod to be the threat it developed into when they introduced the Touch. They had lots of time to react but were to arrogant to see it as a threat.

(I had a BBY for work and it was great. Now I have an Android and it is great.)


----------



## Causalien

I was reading some hard core BB developer's blog and they mostly jumped to Android at the moment. 

This is pobably why they came out with the new initiative to guarantee 10000 and a free BB. I think it's a reactive strategy, but I am more curious on where they are going to come out with the cash.


----------



## buhhy

Unless RIM has something to show before BB10, they are done, almost certainly. Company culture at RIM is the biggest deterrent to innovation. It always has been, I remember discussing this a year and a half ago with former Waterloo RIM coop students. The amount of unnecessary middle management and corporate politics is truly baffling.

Don't buy RIM long on BB10 hopes. Buy it if you think MSFT or some other company will acquire RIM.

Sad times for us Waterloo students


----------



## Causalien

Reminds me of my 3rd year university. I moved to the city for Nortel. Got a job lined up and everything. Then the ball dropped.


----------



## blin10

man, I shorted this thing since 27 and covered around 14, should of held the shorts longer, this company is done....


----------



## andrewf

If it wasn;t Apple, someone else would have eaten RIM's lunch. The last few years have been shocking in terms of RIM's (in)ability to bring product to market.


----------



## kcowan

Stock is climbing today (up 3.5%)! Someone has faith...

But they are cutting to the bone!


> Research In Motion (RIM) is selling one of its two business jets under a plan to save $1 billion in operating costs. The
> maker of BlackBerry devices has put its nine-passenger Dassault Aviation SA F50EX up for sale, trying to fetch $6-7 million.
> Selling the midrange jet would leave RIM with one Dassault F900EX, a longer-range aircraft that can fit 14 passengers.


Down to just one corporate jet! The pain. Buffett would be so proud...


----------



## buhhy

kcowan said:


> Stock is climbing today (up 3.5%)! Someone has faith...
> 
> But they are cutting to the bone!
> 
> Down to just one corporate jet! The pain. Buffett would be so proud...


Lol, just a single corporate jet decked out with full leather interiors, and gold plated furnishings. I like how they downsized first before cutting the jet.


----------



## HaroldCrump

kcowan said:


> Research In Motion (RIM) has put its nine-passenger Dassault Aviation SA F50EX up for sale, trying to fetch $6-7 million.


Hmm, so much for fetching $6M:

*RIM hit with $147.2 million verdict in wireless patent lawsuit*
http://www.thestar.com/business/art...-2-million-verdict-in-wireless-patent-lawsuit


----------



## Loon

Can anyone make sense of why they are hiring? They have a lot of postings and some are up my alley but the company's future does seem seriously in doubt.


----------



## andrewf

I'm guessing they haven't given up yet!

Interesting news about RIM looking to license BB10 to other device makers. Hopefully someone else can get a decent device to market. RIM seems to have forgotten how.


----------



## Sherlock

Bought RIM today for the third time since the big drop in June. First bought at 7-something and sold at 8-something, then bought at 7.40 and sold at 8.25 if I recall correctly, and today bought at 7.25. What a rush! Woooooo!


----------



## Axcell

Sherlock said:


> Bought RIM today for the third time since the big drop in June. First bought at 7-something and sold at 8-something, then bought at 7.40 and sold at 8.25 if I recall correctly, and today bought at 7.25. What a rush! Woooooo!


You may not be so lucky this time, I see it hitting another 52 week low very easily before buying in for another swing.


----------



## SkyFall

Anyone thinks that RIMM can be a nice ''bet'' let's say dumping $500-$1000 in and betting on the new phone will deliver!? I mean it's high risk but if the new phone is good return will be good too!


----------



## HaroldCrump

Don't waste your time (and money).
The new phone is a myth - I doubt it even exists.
At best, it will be a mega disappointment.

If you wanna play RIM stock, surely there are better ways to play/trade it than to go blindly long.
You would be setting yourself up for huge risk that way.


----------



## Axcell

Axcell said:


> You may not be so lucky this time, I see it hitting another 52 week low very easily before buying in for another swing.


And I was right... hit a new 52 week low today. Quote was from a month ago.
This is easily going to keep dropping ahead of their earnings announcement this week. 

I'll look at it again when the market cap goes below $3B.


----------



## andrewf

HaroldCrump said:


> Don't waste your time (and money).
> The new phone is a myth - I doubt it even exists.
> At best, it will be a mega disappointment.
> 
> If you wanna play RIM stock, surely there are better ways to play/trade it than to go blindly long.
> You would be setting yourself up for huge risk that way.


They have prototypes out to developers.

That said, I would stay away from RIM.


----------



## kcowan

Their new phone is at best a catch up "me too"! Just another OS to compete with Android. Unless they can turn their ecosystem into something that the telcos prefer to sell (less bandwidth, oh boy) watch for a long slow recovery until a takeover.


----------



## ddkay

First look at BB10 http://www.theverge.com/2012/9/25/3386444/blackberry-10-beta-3-hands-on-photos-video


----------



## Toronto.gal

For those interested, a discussion - *Beyond RIM: Innovating in K-W*

http://ww3.tvo.org/video/182453/beyond-rim-innovating-k-w


----------



## blin10

ddkay said:


> First look at BB10 http://www.theverge.com/2012/9/25/3386444/blackberry-10-beta-3-hands-on-photos-video


wow what an ugly phone and OS looks terrible, it's the nail in their coffin for sure


----------



## jamesbe

It looks like those knock off chinese phones.


----------



## andrewf

blin10 said:


> wow what an ugly phone and OS looks terrible, it's the nail in their coffin for sure


Prototype phone, and Alpha version of the OS. You really shouldn't judge the OS or phone based on this.


----------



## blin10

how much different will final OS version be ? imo not much



andrewf said:


> Prototype phone, and Alpha version of the OS. You really shouldn't judge the OS or phone based on this.


----------



## GOB

^ I guess nobody knows. Credit to them for not shamelessly ripping off the iPhone design as Samsung did.


----------



## andrewf

Final version will be much more polished. The actual functionality doesn't sound too bad from what I've gathered. Look and feel is not there yet.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Still not buying RIM. I hope they come back though.


----------



## namelessone

From the lastest quarter result, it seems the "death spiral" has bottomed. The cash position has increased to 2.3 billions. Cash flow from operations was approximately $432 million. I own a playbook and seen the demo of BB 10 device. I don't beleive it's a make it or break it product. It's a slowly catching up turtle. I don't expect they can be no.1 again but they should do well eventually. 

You can check out some stuff from crackberry.

Disclosure: I bought RIM @ $13 and doubled it @ $7 couple days ago.


----------



## Argonaut

RIMM might be a screaming buy right now. Quarter better than expected, shares up 20% after hours. $2.3 billion in cash, $3.74 billion market cap at market close.

Still losing money and market share, but that's been priced in and then some. Bad long-term investment, but we could see a bounce and a short squeeze here.


----------



## dcaron

*Time to buy RIM ??? More Than 50 Carriers Testing BlackBerry 10*

Stock is up 10% this morning !!!!

http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/10/research-motion-more-than-50-carriers-testing-blackberry-10/


----------



## Sherlock

Sherlock said:


> Bought RIM today for the third time since the big drop in June. First bought at 7-something and sold at 8-something, then bought at 7.40 and sold at 8.25 if I recall correctly, and today bought at 7.25. What a rush! Woooooo!


Sold today. My TFSA is a lot fatter thanks to RIM.


----------



## jcgd

Sherlock said:


> Sold today. My TFSA is a lot fatter thanks to RIM.


That's awesome. That same trade would have given me cold sweats. I'm envious of you guys who have the know-how/ balls to pick something that's way down in the dumps like RIM and make a killing. Not my style but I appreciate the skill.


----------



## Sherlock

Maybe I'm not so smart after all, RIM went up to over $9 today. Oh well, you can't win em all. The next few months will be very nerve wracking (racking?) for RIM shareholders.


----------



## SkyFall

It's hard to call the shot on this one man....will it drop to 6s-7s and then buy and sell or buy now and sell when it gets higher...IF IT DOES!


----------



## killuminati

http://www.reddit.com/r/business/comments/12syzf/confirmed_by_friends_on_the_inside_rim_lays_off/


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sherlock said:


> RIM went up to over $9 today.


That was on Nov. 5th; on Nov. 1st, it was $8; now nearing $12. 

It will be an interesting 2013 for this company, that some have given it a 20% chance of recovering.


----------



## brad

namelessone said:


> I don't beleive it's a make it or break it product. It's a slowly catching up turtle. I don't expect they can be no.1 again but they should do well eventually.


Anything's possible, but I'd be really, really surprised if this happens. It's basically an Android and Apple world out there now, and both platforms have made serious inroads in RIM's bread-and-butter corporate market, especially the iPhone. RIM and Microsoft are facing a very steep uphill battle, because once people start using a platform it's pretty hard to get them to switch, and there's now such a huge installed base for both Android and iPhone that it's going to be tough for RIM (and Microsoft for that matter) to grab back a big-enough share of the market to survive. 

It's similar to the battle that Apple has faced for decades in the PC market. Do you see Apple products replacing Windows PCs in most corporations anytime soon? Me neither. They're making inroads, and we have a few thousand Macs in my company, but Apple would need to offer an "insanely great" alternative to Windows in order to convince corporations to dump their huge and longstanding investment in Windows and its infrastructure. Similarly, the fact that many corporations are now allowing the use of iPhone and maybe Android on corporate networks is going to make it very hard for RIM to regain lost market share. I also don't think they stand much chance of being a serious player in the personal cellphone market anymore; too much time has gone by since they had a hit and everyone has gone elsewhere. 

It doesn't matter how great their product ends up being. Microsoft's Windows Phone 8 is fantastic, but hardly anyone's buying it because they're late to the party.


----------



## m3s

brad said:


> It doesn't matter how great their product ends up being. Microsoft's Windows Phone 8 is fantastic, but hardly anyone's buying it because they're late to the party.


Exactly

It was the same story with game consoles. Microsoft released a newer generation XBox first and nabbed up a solid user base AND game developers. Even though Sony later released a superior system in specs, the majority stayed with Xbox which had a bigger community, with more games etc. Die hard brand loyalists still supported Sony, but truth be told most games were developed for Xbox and ported to PS3 at less than its actual potential anyways. Likewise the majority of app developers aren't going to want to relearn a new system with much fewer buyers, and what good is a better smart phone or system without the developer support anyways. Mac had the same issue of being an afterthought for 3rd party software vs PCs

It's all about the ecosystem, of both users and developers


----------



## dogcom

Toronto.gal said:


> That was on Nov. 5th; on Nov. 1st, it was $8; now nearing $12.
> 
> It will be an interesting 2013 for this company, that some have given it a 20% chance of recovering.


I stopped playing or buying and selling swings on with this stock when it dropped below $9 or something like that. I thought of it a little when it was at the bottom but was to busy looking elsewhere. So T.gal did you get in near the bottom or where you distracted like me looking at other stuff.

Here is me talking about other stuff on the Barrick thread.

"Thanks for the nice words the negotiator but the way I saw Kinross and what it had faced in the last year I figured the chances of earnings catching a bid was actually very high like 90 percent. It isn't like RIM trying to sell, it is more like pmredmonton says and that is there is a demand for gold so just get your costs in line. Kinross got the message loud and clear and acted on it as they gave every indication that they would".

It seems RIM may also got the message and even if they didn't it still would have been a nice gain since Nov.10 when I had written this.


----------



## Toronto.gal

dogcom said:


> 1. So T.gal did you get in near the bottom or where you distracted...
> 2. still would have been a nice gain since Nov.10 when I had written this.


1. Me, distracted?  
Lowest tranche = lucky $7.

1st time I bought & held this stock, I got sautéd; wait, make that sizzled [though a lucky & timely switch to another tech stock helped me recover]. But not getting pan-fried this time! I'll actually make profits with RIM riding it up [and not just from trading it]. Pharma stocks taught me how to trade news & momentum. However, not for the faint of heart, that's for sure. 

2. I hope you did well with gold & others though!


----------



## dogcom

Same idea with gold despite the bad year in gold I have done very well especially playing the leveraged products. Currently doing very well there again as I stocked up after the correction. Did poorly with JE though and my recent gold gains are offsetting the losses there.

I think you should have said RIM riding and left it at that T.gal. Making money on RIM has been a rough ride like driving on car rims or rim riding. But despite driving on your rims you have done well buying at $7 and making the most of it all the way down.


----------



## SkyFall

I bought it at $8.45 on the day after election were the stock got hammered down! So for making over 20% return after fees! Now just gonna see how far this insanity will play!


----------



## blin10

you didn't make anything until you sell.... 



SkyFall said:


> I bought it at $8.45 on the day after election were the stock got hammered down! So for making over 20% return after fees! Now just gonna see how far this insanity will play!


----------



## Toronto.gal

blin10 said:


> you didn't make anything until you sell....


Really? :biggrin:

You're right of course and today might be the day to book some profits; stock is up 12% in pre-trading hours, as the upgrades keep coming; they seem to be coming as fast as the downgrades had been.


----------



## doctrine

Meanwhile US market share down from 8% to 2% in a single year...


----------



## Toronto.gal

Nothing new/surprising there.

The stock has nearly doubled in the last 3 months & that has been surprising. I was talking about profit-taking for those that may have bought in that period.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Nothing new/surprising there.
> 
> The stock has nearly doubled in the last 3 months & that has been surprising. I was talking about profit-taking for those that may have bought in that period.


absolutely.
u would be one dumb trader if u ventured in buying Rim at that level and not selling it at double price.
I must say that i felt tempted in buying at that time but did not.
bought AMD as you know it and sold it at loss.
my adventure in tech land has been disapointing ..... except for only one trade ...... and i sold my whole position today:rolleyes2:

I am sure that is more than 1% a day for the ones that bought RIM , is it not?:biggrin:

i will always remeber those conversations.
and that is why u are my good ole T.gal:encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> 1. u would be one dumb trader if u ventured in buying Rim at that level and not selling it at double price.
> 2. bought AMD as you know it and sold it at loss.....
> 3. i will always remeber those conversations.


1. At the prices of last 3 months [$6+], not dumb at all for anyone to have held for a good swing-trade, but rather very courageous, though requiring a stomach of steel & fortified with multi-vitamins, lol. Forget double, how about 50% in the last month!

2. Up 6% today; you should have held it a little longer. 

3. Some conversations are like reading a good book, ie: you learn some stuff [and ignore other]. :biggrin:


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. At the prices of last 3 months [$6+], not dumb at all for anyone to have held for a good swing-trade, but rather very courageous, though requiring a stomach of steel & fortified with multi-vitamins, lol. Forget double, how about 50% in the last month!
> 
> 2. Up 6% today; you should have held it a little longer.
> 
> 3. Some conversations are like reading a good book, ie: you learn some stuff [and ignore other]. :biggrin:


completely agree with ur item number 1. If i make 50% in profit i am out.
i am out at 20% let alone almost 100%.
I would be one complete dumb trader by not cashing in 100% profits .
that is why people beat themselves after.
u win the lotery u cash it in.
ur item number 2 .... I could have held it for sure , but my recovery in other trades brought me up to about 30% of loss and i am holding cash specific to that losing trade.
I cut my losses on things i cannot understand .
some do not.
nevertheless u know how happy i am for ur trades on that particular stock.
on ur item number 3.... u could not have said it better:rolleyes2::tongue-new:


----------



## Toronto.gal

RIM closed at $11.59 on Nov.30th; 13 days later, it's nearing $14! 

Just 10 days ago the stock had been downgraded to sell by Canaccord & others.

We have to wait & see in which direction the stock will go in 2013; impossible to predict this one. 

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/12/12/leaked-photos-and-videos-of-rims-new-blackberry/


----------



## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> Just 10 days ago the stock had been downgraded to sell by Canaccord & others.
> We have to wait & see in which direction the stock will go in 2013; impossible to predict this one.


The vast majority of buy-side analysts are usually behind the market.
The only use of their reports I can think of is to get a quick idea about the fundamentals, such as financial metrics, ratios, major ownership, etc.
They are not useful for predicting what a stock will do in the future.

To be fair, every now and then, some analyst has flashes of brilliance, like Meredith Whitney back in 2007.


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> They are not useful for predicting what a stock will do in the future.


No, they are not, and, as a contrarian type investor that I am, I never rely on their recommendations of either buy/hold or sell.

What is your recommendation? I would be more interested in that.


----------



## Axcell

Toronto.gal said:


> No, they are not, and, as a contrarian type investor that I am, I never rely on their recommendations of either buy/hold or sell.
> 
> What is your recommendation? I would be more interested in that.


Get in. Enough said.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I'm most definitely in; that's never the challenge for me, it's the exiting part [excluding trading].


----------



## SecretHero

The price seems to be baking in for OS 10. We’ll see how this will hold after next month’s release (if not delayed again).


----------



## SkyFall

Toronto.gal said:


> I'm most definitely in; that's never the challenge for me, it's the exiting part [excluding trading].


Yeah man! I was in at $8.45...still riding the bull but having a very hard time here to sell...it's so hard! the only thing that help me keep riding the bull is the fact that BB10 will be out late January...so still have plenty of time for over optimism to pick up more! (it's simple a gamble now)

and like I said in another post, it's my cheapest investment/trade/gamble....so it's high risk high reward...don't really care it's worth playing this hand!


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> I'm most definitely in; that's never the challenge for me, it's the exiting part [excluding trading].


now. that is surprising.
the exiting part is the easiest.
well at least for me :encouragement:


----------



## thenegotiator

HaroldCrump said:


> The vast majority of buy-side analysts are usually behind the market.
> The only use of their reports I can think of is to get a quick idea about the fundamentals, such as financial metrics, ratios, major ownership, etc.
> They are not useful for predicting what a stock will do in the future.
> 
> To be fair, every now and then, some analyst has flashes of brilliance, like Meredith Whitney back in 2007.



harold
fully agree with ya but Rim is riding on analysts upgrades.
tech stocks taught myself a lesson.
no parameters to go buy except the above mentioned plus the media news.
i would sell it in a heartbeat now at the current levels.
i feel sorry for the ones that held this thing at the highs though.
cheers


----------



## Argonaut

If I bought at $6 or $7 like I said I might in this thread (didn't, whoops) I would be looking to sell now. Blackberry 10 is probably a classic buy the leadup, sell the release event.


----------



## Toronto.gal

SkyFall said:


> Yeah man! I was in at $8.45...still riding the bull but having a very hard time here to sell...it's so hard! the only thing that help me keep riding the bull is the fact that BB10 will be out late January...so still have plenty of time for over optimism to pick up more! (it's simple a gamble now)
> 
> and like I said in another post, it's my cheapest investment/trade/gamble....so it's high risk high reward...don't really care it's worth playing this hand!


I'm a gal man. 

You're up 64% in about a month, which is not bad at all.

Enjoy the ride, but remember what blin10 told you, that you won't make anything until you sell. 

Good luck to us! :encouragement:

*TN:* I know my exit points when day-swing trading & pretty disciplined about that, however, longer term is more challenging to know when it's time to sell [not talking about just booking some profits].


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> I'm a gal man.
> 
> You're up 64% in about a month, which is not bad at all.
> 
> Enjoy the ride, but remember what blin10 told you, that you won't make anything until you sell.
> 
> Good luck to us! :encouragement:
> 
> *TN:* I know my exit points when day-swing trading & pretty disciplined about that, however, longer term is more challenging to know when it's time to sell [not talking about just booking some profits].


T.gal
i know exactly what u mean:encouragement:
keep it up my gal.
It is the festival of lights right?


----------



## Jon_Snow

About a month ago I bought a 1000 shares each of SU, PBN, IMG, and RIM. I guess I don't need to tell you which is my star performer so far - its the stock that I thought I was nuts to buy. :stupid:


----------



## Toronto.gal

At the low price you bought, and 2 months prior to BB10 release, no, it was not nuts at all to have purchased shares, but courageous no doubt!

Congrats on your 60%+ returns in one month! :encouragement:

Even a U.S. federal agency is willing to give it another chance.


----------



## Axcell

So who is buying in before earnings? I think any disappointment would be baked in the stock and everybody is just waiting for January for BB10. What do others think? Very tempting.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I increased my position a few days ago at a lower price, so I have a little bulwark against bigger than expected surprises for my last tranche [some believe RIM will be another Palm].


----------



## SkyFall

That's it I sold today at $13.93.... made around 53% after fees which is good! Didn't want to get too greedy on this...don't know what will happen with earnings so didn't take any chances. Whish you all the best T.g.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Congrats SkyFall! It's better than 'good', it's fantastic! :cool2:

Happy Holidays!


----------



## SkyFall

Toronto.gal said:


> Congrats SkyFall! It's better than 'good', it's fantastic! :cool2:
> 
> Happy Holidays!


thanks happy holidays to you too...I was thinking if the earnings is disappointing, I maybe jump back in after the selloff and get advantage of the little time before the BB10 release heheheh


----------



## SkyFall

Wow shares jumped to $15.24 after hours last time I looked! that's amazing! too bad I was out hahahah now I gonna have to hunt for another beat down stock hahhaha


----------



## RParks

SkyFall said:


> Wow shares jumped to $15.24 after hours last time I looked! that's amazing! too bad I was out hahahah now I gonna have to hunt for another beat down stock hahhaha


12.65 and falling now.


----------



## Compounding1

Wow I bought in at $7.50 because I thought they were undervalued. Sold at 9$ because I didn't like how it was all speculation driving the price up. Sigh!


----------



## doctrine

You can't stay long in a company like this, with revenues down 50% since last year, losing money every quarter and now losing subscribers. Everyone is using Android or Apple and are only becoming more entrenched. You can always make money on bounces but its pure gambling in my opinion - this company is not investable in my books.


----------



## kcowan

This remains a highly specualtive play. If Heins can come up with a way to monetize their service infrastructure and get the telcos to pay for it, then they have a good future. I don't see anyone in the company talking about this in public. It would be folly.

(I think the market suddenly realized this but have no hope about it happening.)


----------



## Toronto.gal

kcowan said:


> This remains a highly specualtive play.


For sure! Not for the faint of heart. LOL.

*SkyFall:* you must be laughing harder this a.m. :encouragement:


----------



## Jungle

Down 20% in one day.. Even after the beat estimates. 
Hopefully for the shareholder's sake, the fee issue and new phone works out.


----------



## Islenska

Bought some $15 calls for Feb
The launch will be complete and BB10 is out there
Analysts are postulating severe margin pressure, but does anyone really know,
Not betting the farm on it though.......


----------



## SkyFall

Toronto.gal said:


> For sure! Not for the faint of heart. LOL.
> 
> *SkyFall:* you must be laughing harder this a.m. :encouragement:


Well not laughing, but had a little smile  didn't know it turn out that I sold at a good moment (so far)


----------



## arc

anyone else buying shares come Mon? 20% drops makes a nice entry point


----------



## thenegotiator

and i thought i saw a large short float on AMD:biggrin:
lol
sure.
lets load up on RIM:biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

RIM is nearing $15, or the highs not seen since early 2012. 

The big question is, for how long will it rise?????? :confused2:


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> RIM is nearing $15, or the highs not seen since early 2012.
> 
> The big question is, for how long will it rise?????? :confused2:


If ur holding T.gal maybe deleveraging a bit would be advisable?
u know i am not a holder.
trading natural gas is volatile enough for me.
this thing is moving on short covering IMO.
fundamentals have not changed.
If it is short covering look down way below.
I am actually impressed with the volatility and i am used to volatility.


----------



## Axcell

Toronto.gal said:


> RIM is nearing $15, or the highs not seen since early 2012.
> 
> The big question is, for how long will it rise?????? :confused2:


It'll keep running up closer to the launch... lots of anticipation for BB10. I sold off a bit today, but I'm holding for a higher jump and plan to dump before the launch. Though I know others who actually think the odds of BB10 working are worth to hold as a speculative play.


----------



## AnimeEd

I've been doing some reading on tech sites. A lot of users are excited with what they saw from the recent leaks.

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/15/3878952/unannounced-blackberry-z10-shown-on-video/in/2755145

You know they are doing something right when the chief complaint seems to be that the fonts are not pretty enough. Of course, we will need to wait until we see full reviews but this could be what RIM needs for its comeback. Obviously, they're not going to be the next Android or iOS anytime soon but their branding still has some prestige. The way I see it is that they just need their corporate users to stop asking their IT department if they could switch their BB device to an iPhone.


----------



## andrewf

It sounds like they are finally coming to market with a good product. The apps are there, the features are competitive. They still have a large install base (something windows phone 8 doesn't have).

I still don't think I would invest... but maybe they are making themselves a more tempting takeover target now they may not completely implode.


----------



## AnimeEd

When the stock was tanking a few months ago, I watched an interview with the new CEO on why they are delaying the launch of BB10. He said a lot of things which I thought were correct. He had a clear view of why they were not competitive with their current devices. I knew that their direction was correct but still needed to execute. Unfortunately, I did not invest in them during that time.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Axcell said:


> I'm holding for a higher jump and plan to dump before the launch. Though I know others who actually think the odds of BB10 working are worth to hold as a speculative play.


It just jumped another 7% in pre-trading hours.

No matter the reviews, it's indeed a speculative play atm.


----------



## Axcell

Just sold off all my shares. Good luck to all the longs!


----------



## Toronto.gal

You deserting/faint-hearted/spooked pessimist; no wonder the price dropped a bit. :rolleyes2: :biggrin:

Enjoy the weekend with your returns! I have as well, except for a % that is going all the way! :encouragement:


----------



## AnimeEd

It is too bad they're not planning to launch with a keyboard device along side the all-touch device. There is no top-end keyboard phones anymore and there is a market for those.


----------



## blin10

that market is probably die hard users which make up 1% of all users... it's not worthwhile for a company to satisfy such a small percentage



AnimeEd said:


> It is too bad they're not planning to launch with a keyboard device along side the all-touch device. There is no top-end keyboard phones anymore and there is a market for those.


----------



## AnimeEd

blin10 said:


> that market is probably die hard users which make up 1% of all users... it's not worthwhile for a company to satisfy such a small percentage


A bit more than that. The last high-end phone with a keyboard was the Galaxy S Epic 4G. In the Apple vs. Samsung lawsuit, some sales data were released and the Epic was the second best selling phone.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1286669/Apple_v_Samsung_US_sales_numbers.pdf

Only the Samsung Prevail sold more and that was probably because they were giving that one away (it is a low-end)

There is a market, it is not very big but Blackberry can own that share entirely


----------



## andrewf

There is a market for it, though with swipe typing and good predictive algorithms, the advantage to a physical keyboard is shrinking. Except full size keyboards, which will probably always be superior to touch input.


----------



## supperfly17

I purchased ~250 shares when it was 9.50$. Recommend selling on January 29th?


----------



## AnimeEd

supperfly17 said:


> I purchased ~250 shares when it was 9.50$. Recommend selling on January 29th?


Hard to say... it topped the 52-wk high today.

to put things in perspective though, when RIM was doing okay, they were a $50 stock. That was only 2 years ago.


----------



## Compounding1

supperfly17 said:


> I purchased ~250 shares when it was 9.50$. Recommend selling on January 29th?


I don't think anyone can tell what's going to happen with this stock. It's been all over the place. I do expect it to go up more tomorrow when American markets are open but after the release of the OS on the 30th who knows. All what your risk tolerance is and your valuation of the stock. Personally I'm going to lock in my profits before the OS release. Too many things that could happen and I'm happy with the gains I've made thus far. I don't want to get too greedy


----------



## Sherlock

I sold my RIM at just under $9. Waahhhhhhhhhh! :crushed:


----------



## kcowan

Compounding1 said:


> I don't want to get too greedy


Take gains on the rumours and sell on the news!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sherlock said:


> I sold my RIM at just under $9. Waahhhhhhhhhh! :crushed:


You have every reason to be crushed, lol, and not because you booked profits, but because it seems that you sold your entire position way too early. :hopelessness:

Shares were trading in the $9 range last Nov., you could have picked them again later, even at $9+, it would have been fine considering the release date of the new system was still months away. 

ANyway, hope you enjoyed your profits!


----------



## SkyFall

BB10 wednesday....just i buy monday morning at 9:30am and sell asap wenesday???? Two days for almost certain profit????


----------



## Toronto.gal

I remember that after you booked your 50%+ profits last month, the stock increased further, but was followed by a heavy drop following Q3 concerns, and that had been your opportunity to get back in at around $10+ [you sold at $13+ I believe], but now the stock is up 70% in just one month and you want to buy now, at the highest in a year?! :hopelessness: You should have kept some shares instead of having sold all several weeks ahead of the release.

If you do buy on Monday, be careful not to erase the gains you have already made; nothing is 'certain'.

Good luck!


----------



## thenegotiator

maybe he likes extreme volatility.
i think that this stock is a mayhem in volatility.
it goes up.
it goes down it goes sideways.
it has no direction.
nevertheless if I was to bet on this particular stock i would say that the direction is down.
but before i bet on something i need to see what is the direction which right now is absolutely none.
all in on the red in a roulette table has a better chance than this IMO.

as you said T.gal all i can wish the ones on this stock is good luck also.


----------



## SkyFall

yeah I know, but first is I didn't buy enough shares to sell just a portion (fees gonna kill me) and on the other hand is...I am very uncertain what will happen after the launch but before...I really think it will go up hehhehe but anyways I think I won't buy because I don't want to be trap in a pre-launch selloff


----------



## Compounding1

Big sell-off today. RIM down ~6%


----------



## SkyFall

2 more days guys!


----------



## thenegotiator

SkyFall said:


> 2 more days guys!


apparently it is a copy of the iphone?
what the heck did they have in their mind.
is it true though?


----------



## SkyFall

thenegotiator said:


> apparently it is a copy of the iphone?
> what the heck did they have in their mind.
> is it true though?


Don't know if you are being sarcastic or just making fun of me... But i will answer it anyway, I think it's a very nice phone, but seriously beside little innovation there's nothing proprietary! I mean the only reason I will change my Galaxy S2 for a Blackberry will be because I am sick of touchscreen keyboard, but I can live with that if it cost me $500.

I honestly think BB10 won't be a game changer (everyone knows it) and like one analyst said... I think within the next 6 months I think it will be trading in the single digit. 

I am happy I didn't commit myself to another round of buying hahahah.


----------



## thenegotiator

SkyFall said:


> Don't know if you are being sarcastic or just making fun of me... But i will answer it anyway, I think it's a very nice phone, but seriously beside little innovation there's nothing proprietary! I mean the only reason I will change my Galaxy S2 for a Blackberry will be because I am sick of touchscreen keyboard, but I can live with that if it cost me $500.
> 
> I honestly think BB10 won't be a game changer (everyone knows it) and like one analyst said... I think within the next 6 months I think it will be trading in the single digit.
> 
> I am happy I didn't commit myself to another round of buying hahahah.




not sarcastic at all and neither making fun of ya.
i am not short this particular stock at all.
actually i had to cover yet again my FB shorts .
i just heard about the similarity.
now ... if this thing has any semblance with the iphone look out below.
why is it that people think that i am making fun of others at all times?
i know that some of my posts can and are sarcastic but not all of them.
for crying outloud .

i just mentioned to kaitlyn to be patient and study and pick a sector to invest.
is that being sarcastic?


----------



## SkyFall

I think it's just because I consider myself as a super noob in the investment/trading world and sometimes I say stupid things so...never sure how people will react hahhahaha


----------



## thenegotiator

ok then.
like i said i am not short this stock because i do not short things that move in a zigzag directionless.
as for saying stupid things i will not comment on that.
i have my sectors picked.
i am very short certain things .
and i am waiting like a hawk for 2 sectors to fall.
and they will.
and i will buy it.
as for RIM if u made ur money keep it.
u will loose it otherwise.
roulette table has a much better chance than this.
if u believe and have info that the stock will falll then short it.
i have no info on this thing at all.
GL anyway


----------



## andrewf

There's no secrets going into the announcement. The phones are already well publicized with leaked pictures, demos etc.

Dunno what you mean by resembling an iphone. If you mean an all-touch phone, then yes. But the operating system is a bit different. It has a better notification centre than iOS.


----------



## kcowan

QNX, the basis for BB10, is in use in many devices such as cars. So there is potential for some leverage. Otherwise it is just another touchscreen smartphone with fewer apps than either Android or iOS. Potential yes. Actual advantage none.

Most current loyal BB users will be anticipating the first BB10 with a keyboard due out later this year. Until then, it is a speculative momentum play.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I'm feeling like a kid; can't wait for tomorrow, LOL. :chuncky: 

I have already made my double digit losses in the past, and present triple digit profits with this, though still invested in it for hopefully longer!

I'm hoping that RIM will remain a successful Canadian story!


----------



## andrewf

I don't think the app issue will be much of a disadvantage like it was with the playbook. They have tens of thousands of apps submitted and have made it straightforward to use/port Android apps. They are essentially hitching their wagon to Android, which is smart, because Android will be dominant for the foreseeable future.


----------



## supperfly17

Sold 205 shares today. Wasnt sure what to do, so I took +55%, not looking back.


----------



## Toronto.gal

supperfly17 said:


> took +55%, not looking back.


Congratulations!

The 'not looking back' part is the smart approach once you've made your decision [but easier said than done]. 

Given the profits you made, however, I would have kept a % of shares, even 25%, but that's just me.


----------



## kcowan

andrewf said:


> They are essentially hitching their wagon to Android, which is smart, because Android will be dominant for the foreseeable future.


I think their reputation for secure processing might take a hit from Android's open to all comers approach? Unless they create their own library of approved apps...


----------



## andrewf

Their OS allows business users to effectively split the device into a 'personal' half and a 'secure' half, in which the enterprise administrators can restrict which apps/actions can be made.


----------



## Addy

Any large institution I've worked for has always used BB's and continue to today. They are looking forward to a major overhaul. I was under the impression BB is the standard also in the US for most healthcare institutions, politicians and other gov't employees. I don't see a lot of personal BB users near as much as I did say 5 years ago. I plan on selling shortly before or shortly after the first quarter numbers are announced. Plus I'm anxious to see what rolls out tomorrow!


----------



## supperfly17

Thanks for the advice. On a side note, is a 45$ commision fee normal for TDW for my sale?


----------



## ban

Don't think so. If you are under 50K should be $29 for up to 1000 shares
http://www.tdwaterhouse.ca/document/PDF/apply/forms/tdw-apply-forms-521778-pdf.pdf


----------



## SkyFall

Toronto.gal said:


> Congratulations!
> 
> The 'not looking back' part is the smart approach once you've made your decision [but easier said than done].
> 
> Given the profits you made, however, I would have kept a % of shares, even 25%, but that's just me.


hahah I know what you are talking about :rolleyes2:


----------



## thenegotiator

supperfly17 said:


> Thanks for the advice. On a side note, is a 45$ commision fee normal for TDW for my sale?


ya gotta be kidding me right?
45 bux?


----------



## Toronto.gal

supperfly17 said:


> is a 45$ commision fee normal for TDW for my sale?


$43 or $45? If the former, did you use the services of a rep.? Because that fee is listed under their 'Telephone Brokerage Services Commission Schedule'. :confused2:


----------



## supperfly17

Yes its my fault, I was having issues and I had to call in. I realized afterwards that the rate is higher when the phone rep does the work for you, duhh.


----------



## thenegotiator

i dunno
just saw a glimpse of rim in the news.
it smells like a fiasco.
i should have shorted this thing.
oh well.
we will see right?


----------



## supperfly17

thenegotiator said:


> i dunno
> just saw a glimpse of rim in the news.
> it smells like a fiasco.
> i should have shorted this thing.
> oh well.
> we will see right?


I really hope you are wrong. All I have heard have been good news.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> i dunno
> it smells like a fiasco.
> i should have shorted this thing.


Like u shorted FB? :hopelessness:

Please *NO* negativity allowed until at least after 10 a.m. :rolleyes2:

Thanks in advance! :tongue-new:


----------



## Toronto.gal

supperfly17 said:


> Yes its my fault, I was having issues and I had to call in. I realized afterwards that the rate is higher when the phone rep does the work for you, duhh.


What did they do for you for $43, advised you to sell or what? :rolleyes2:

I hope you learned your lesson!


----------



## SkyFall

Looks very good so far, talking about the phone. Awesome BB Hub, balance between work and personal life... You don't have to carry two phone with you, because your CIO have only access to the work part of your phone, etc. The phone looks good and very functional.

out in Canada Z10 Feb 5th! Should be around $150 with 3 years contract!

unfortunately no big major game changer... nothing AAPL or Samsung can't come up with....


----------



## brad

The Z10 got a glowing review just now by David Pogue in the New York Times. He loves it and is very impressed. But his last paragraph gets to the heart of the matter: "These days, excellence in a smartphone isn’t enough. Microsoft’s phone is terrific, too, and hardly anyone will touch it. So then: Is the delightful BlackBerry Z10 enough to save its company? Honestly? It could go either way. But this much is clear: BlackBerry is no longer an incompetent mess — and its doom is no longer assured."


----------



## supperfly17

brad said:


> The Z10 got a glowing review just now by David Pogue in the New York Times. He loves it and is very impressed. But his last paragraph gets to the heart of the matter: "These days, excellence in a smartphone isn’t enough. Microsoft’s phone is terrific, too, and hardly anyone will touch it. So then: Is the delightful BlackBerry Z10 enough to save its company? Honestly? It could go either way. But this much is clear: BlackBerry is no longer an incompetent mess — and its doom is no longer assured."


Well at least they changed their name to Blackberry now, no more RIM. I wonder why they did that?


----------



## HaroldCrump

supperfly17 said:


> I wonder why they did that?


Maybe because they are a one-trick pony ;o)


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Like u shorted FB? :hopelessness:
> 
> Please *NO* negativity allowed until at least after 10 a.m. :rolleyes2:
> 
> Thanks in advance! :tongue-new:





supperfly17 said:


> I really hope you are wrong. All I have heard have been good news.



superfly i do NOT trade on hope.
TGAL u should know me by now right?
tech is new but after all i was right was i not?
still an opportunity to short it .
this thinfg reallly really smells like a fiasco.
GL anyway


----------



## KaeJS

Thinking about Shorting today and not looking at the market until tomorrow.

I think RIM is going to hit $8-9 within a month.

Any thoughts?


----------



## kcowan

The specuvestors have had their fun, buying on rumour and selling on news. Now actual product sales will have to drive the stock. There will be some delay as the carriers decided whether to offer these products. Then the pipeline gets filled, etc. 

I think many will wait for the Q10 release.


----------



## Axcell

KaeJS said:


> Thinking about Shorting today and not looking at the market until tomorrow.
> 
> I think RIM is going to hit $8-9 within a month.
> 
> Any thoughts?


I don't think so, shorts probably going to be locking profits here. I expect it will stay around the $11-$12 area until closer to earnings.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> 1. tech is new but after all i was right was i not?
> 2. still an opportunity to short it.


*1.* I was not talking about FB's earnings, which indeed did beat the markets, and was able to increase its revenue by 40% from last year in fact. However, the stock went down due to high spending; after all, you have to pay all the engineers they are hiring, but I'm pretty sure Mark knows what he's doing/buying & who he's hiring. What I was talking about, was the practice of shorting. Anyway, remember what I told you about FB's creator [long, not short-term].

*2.* You know I never short ANY stock.

Lehitra'ot!

*Kaejs:* I don't ever short stocks, as I mentioned many times to you before. Sure, it might very well drop to single digits before it goes up again; this is a tricky one to call for sure, but time & sales will tell. 

I'm holding the balance of my shares until at least Spring. 

I'm not a techie for sure, but it does not seem to be an iPhone copycat [as some have suggested].

*'And here’s the shocker — it’s complete. The iPhone, Android and Windows Phone all entered life missing important features. Not this one; BlackBerry couldn’t risk building a lifeboat with leaks. So it’s all here: a well-stocked app store, a music and movie store, Mac and Windows software for loading files, speech recognition, turn-by-turn navigation, parental controls, copy and paste, Find My Phone (with remote-control lock and erase) and on and on.' 
*
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/t...-fight-another-day.html?ref=personaltech&_r=0

Good IMG trade. :encouragement:


----------



## brad

By all accounts it's a great device and they did just about everything right. But they still have a very steep hill to climb and the odds are against them. This will probably appeal strongly to the current base of Blackberry users and slow (or even halt) their defection to other platforms. But how likely is it to lure anyone away from iPhone or Android? My guess is not too likely.


----------



## m3s

What it's missing is app developers. BB10's "well stocked" app store is just full of apps that were actually designed for Android. The developers still have the most incentive to make iOS apps in terms of revenue. Maybe some people can't tell the difference but I hate to use ported software or workarounds for software, it's always glitchy or limited because it was meant for another system. That's why I never owned a Mac when Windows had all the programs. Windows programs work better on Windows, and I imagine Android apps work better on Android. BB10 is only as useful as its software


----------



## andrewf

I think we can agree that apps are not as much of a drawback as they were with the Playbook.

I'm not sure how successful RIM/BB will be on its own. Maybe if they partner with Samsung and other handset makers to produce devices they might get some more traction. Samsung is looking to diversify away from total reliance on Android. It's at least in their interest if there are other viable OSes they can produce devices for.


----------



## buhhy

HaroldCrump said:


> Maybe because they are a one-trick pony ;o)


Lol truth.

Either way, RIM (now Blackberry) has a tremendous amount of ill-will from consumers following their BB7 and Playbook fiasco. I doubt they will gain any measurable amount of traction with BB10. I certainly hope BB10 is good, as my Playbook could certainly use an upgrade to make it more usable. However, BB10 has a ton of stigma behind it, just like how WP7 carried the stigma of WM6, and how Windows Vista/7 carried the stigma of XP. People still believe WP8 has no apps even though it has over 100k at last count, probably over 150k apps. RIM claims to launch with 70k apps, and if the Playbook app store is any indication, most of the apps will be crappy Android ports that are unusable. In any case, BB10 and WP8 will have to fight for the distant third place. Sure BB hardware is nice, but so is Nokia hardware, not to mention Microsoft has a considerably larger ecosystem. It's an uphill battle for RIM.

EDIT: also BES 10 is not backwards compatible with BES and BES cannot manage BB10 devices.


----------



## Jets99

mode3sour said:


> What it's missing is app developers. BB10's "well stocked" *app store is just full of apps that were actually designed for Android*. The developers still have the most incentive to make iOS apps in terms of revenue. Maybe some people can't tell the difference but I hate to use ported software or workarounds for software, it's always glitchy or limited because it was meant for another system. That's why I never owned a Mac when Windows had all the programs. Windows programs work better on Windows, and I imagine Android apps work better on Android. BB10 is only as useful as its software


Supporting android apps is wise and a good news story in my opinion. Not perfect but instantly puts them at same level of app availability as all other android devices. 

And with a loyal customer base of "older" business users not embracing touch screen (i have yet to see anyone over 30 that can type on them, me included :distress this stock could turn out to be great buy at this price.


----------



## buhhy

Jets99 said:


> Supporting android apps is wise and a good news story in my opinion. Not perfect but instantly puts them at same level of app availability as all other android devices.
> 
> And with a loyal customer base of "older" business users not embracing touch screen (i have yet to see anyone over 30 that can type on them, me included :distress this stock could turn out to be great buy at this price.


It sounds good in practice, but in reality, emulated Android apps are terrible and perform horribly with limited compatibility. It is more of a hindrance than a benefit because it encourages app developers to develop for Android, then port over, ruining the UX in the process. The Playbook is the perfect example.

Android app support is more for the types who don't understand technology and will buy into the idea. Android support also does not mean instant access to Android's app market, just to a select few developers decide to port. Android support is a good publicity and stock booster, not much else.


----------



## chriswh86

If BB stocks drop again, or even now, Could investing in BB stock on a chance that the company may be sold out to a higher company thus creating higher stocks be a good idea or am I just making a stupid statement?


----------



## kcowan

You are trying to decide whether it is a good investment. The only thing you don't know is whether the new handsets will sell. For sure they will sell better than the old ones have. But will that be enough? That is your call.

I think they will only be sold if the new products do not create enough new sales. But they will bleed for many months if that is the case. And their cash reserves will get depleted. This points to a lower buyout price.


----------



## SkyFall

Alright following it very carefully today, maybe gonna jump back in and ride whatever will be able to ride until 4th quarter releases!

EDITED: Did it, bought @ $14.31 now portfolio is 67% equities 33% cash


----------



## 1sImage

SkyFall said:


> Alright following it very carefully today, maybe gonna jump back in and ride whatever will be able to ride until 4th quarter releases!
> 
> EDITED: Did it, bought @ $14.31 now portfolio is 67% equities 33% cash


Not a good day for you today.


----------



## SkyFall

It wasnt that bad if you look whats happening today.


----------



## supperfly17

SkyFall said:


> It wasnt that bad if you look whats happening today.


I think you will do fine in the long run.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Good day for the stock, up 8% after a 'mystery buyer' orders 1 million BBs...hmmm, why a secret?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wednesday-movers-majesco-spectrum-2013-03-13

*Q4:* March 28th, 2013.


----------



## SkyFall

Toronto.gal said:


> Good day for the stock, up 8% after a 'mystery buyer' orders 1 million BBs...hmmm, why a secret?
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wednesday-movers-majesco-spectrum-2013-03-13
> 
> *Q4:* March 28th, 2013.


if everything goes according to my plan...there should be a hype in the stock from here to the Q4 releases... I either dump everything or half of what I have to secure profits.


----------



## SkyFall

Stock is up today because Morgan Stanley rate the stock higher.... I hope everything will go according to the plan


----------



## Addy

Recovering nicely so far. Skyfall is your plan to sell off quickly after the Q4 announcement or shortly before? I may sell what I have and take any profit I can while there still is profit to be made.


----------



## Islenska

Currently I'm going to keep some shares hidden away and not touch them for a year or so. (famous last words)

I have made money buying and selling at the $11 range, but overall am way down in my holdco but have booked losses so green at BB in the $20 range.

Never really hear anyone dizz The Z10 as a product---that's gotta be huge.

No real reason why this cannot turnaround, have to admire the new CEO's performance to date.

But you can also get something from left field...


----------



## SkyFall

Addy said:


> Recovering nicely so far. Skyfall is your plan to sell off quickly after the Q4 announcement or shortly before? I may sell what I have and take any profit I can while there still is profit to be made.


Nothing is rock solid in term of what I will actually do, I may sell everything prior to Q4 releases or maybe sell 50% of the shares I own. I gonna see how the stock is performing next week, like a lot of people said the hardest part is to know WHEN get out hehehehhe. I am pretty sure the results of Q4 will be positive, but it won't take into account BB10 completely, we will only have a forecast. but I am positive that in the next 6-12 months BB will do fine, both in term of the <<stock>> and the <<company>> that's why I am confident to keep at least half of my shares post Q4 releases.

The only thing that has change for me this time from the first time I put money into BB (which was prior to BB10 releases is that this time BB represent a bigger portion of my portfolio, but nothing that I cant handle)


----------



## Tornbysaber

and the slaughter begins.....

plain profit taking or "panic manipulation"?


----------



## none

Tornbysaber said:


> and the slaughter begins.....
> 
> plain profit taking or "panic manipulation"?


I'll jump in at $6.


----------



## Toronto.gal

none said:


> I'll jump in at $6.


For the 2nd time, or 1st? 

It was $6.10 just 6 months ago; you could be up 2day 150% in just 6 months. Or 30% YTD.


----------



## gibor365

_BlackBerry (BBRY -6.9%) plummets as the WSJ reports AT&T (T) "doesn't appear to be highlighting" the Z10 on its launch day, or "giving it prominent shelf space at its stores." The paper observes "fewer than 20 people" arrived at two Manhattan AT&T stores to see the Z10, and that a San Francisco store chose to display it "at a back corner of the store, away from a large sign advertising the iPhone 5." _ 

looks like American retailers are hiding BB from customers  maybe AAPL bought everone?! 

btw, interesting how much money RIM spend on changing stock ticker?


----------



## none

Toronto.gal said:


> For the 2nd time, or 1st?
> 
> It was $6.10 just 6 months ago; you could be up 2day 150% in just 6 months. Or 30% YTD.


That was my obviously lame attempt at being funny. :s


----------



## Toronto.gal

Oh no, *none*, you were definitely being funny & very successfully! :tongue-new:


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> btw, interesting how much money RIM spend on changing stock ticker?


The company's entire *'Keep Moving'* marketing campaign, is estimated at $200M.

Q4 shall be very interesting.


----------



## SkyFall

I am still in the positive side so far...lets see what next week will bring us. If BB.to goes below the price I bought it which is $14.31 (the second time) I will keep it and see what will happen after Q4 releases... but my stop is at $10


----------



## kcowan

This is probably the most popular speculative stock holding for Canadians right now. The speculation will be over when the sales figures are in. Probably that will take until the Q10 hits stride.


----------



## supperfly17

kcowan said:


> This is probably the most popular speculative stock holding for Canadians right now. The speculation will be over when the sales figures are in. Probably that will take until the Q10 hits stride.


I just dont see it anymore. Even here in Canada, from my own experience none of my friends are rushing to get the bb10. The two that got it, have had many issues with it and needed replacements. Even reports from the US show that there is no interest. Time will tell, but I dont see the stock going above 20 this year.


----------



## SkyFall

Guys don't forget that, the BB10 is BlackBerry saver but is no where something that BB expect to crush APPLE or GOOGLE, even for the Galaxy S3 I didn't see any line up. This thing is only APPLE's addicts do that  BB don't expect to cut APPLE or GOOGLE's market share by 25%, I am pretty sure BB will do well....not AMAZING thing but will do something good.


----------



## SkyFall

Goldman Sach just cut BB down to Neutral from a buy. I will officially keep the stock at least until Q4 releases and the STOP is always at $10


----------



## Tornbysaber

the SP stabalized somewhat since this morning, i am waiting for Q4 too. Whats your sell price? I want 30 lol...


----------



## Toronto.gal

Tornbysaber said:


> Whats your sell price? I want 30 lol


I'm not laughing yet, not until you indicate the target date for that wish. 

My target is a more modest $20 for this Spring, and actually, came very close in cool January!

I'm reminded of AAPL's bad quarter in July of last year when customers were deferring purchases waiting for the Sept. release of the iPhone 5 & how it went downhill from there.

Given that BB has gone in the exact opposite direction of AAPL since last July, nothing will surprise me. At any rate, BB fans, fasten your seat-belts!


----------



## SkyFall

Short sellers were ready to kill the stock, but earning was good enough for me to keep it, at least until next releases...and myabe Q10 (gonna go get it hehehhe)

'' The company formerly known as Research in Motion posted fourth-quarter earnings of 19 cents a share. Excluding items, BlackBerry made a profit of 22 cents per share excluding items, down sharply from 80 cents a share in the year-earlier period. ''

'' Those figures, however, were far ahead of what Wall Street was expecting. Analysts had expected BlackBerry to report a quarterly loss of 29 cents a share on $2.85 billion in revenue, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters. ''

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100598073


----------



## kcowan

Lost 4 million subscribers and shipped a bunch a product to the channel. Let's hope the channel can sell it at the prices assumed.


----------



## supperfly17

kcowan said:


> Lost 4 million subscribers.


That is the most troubling news. 4 Million is alot considering they sold a million Z10s. Well see what the stock does.


----------



## Toronto.gal

As I said, nothing about this company can surprise me anymore, not even the profits. 

I was most interested in the subscriber base, which as you mentioned kcowan, it lost 4 million combined in the last 2 quarters [80/79/76].


----------



## physik3r

supperfly17 said:


> That is the most troubling news. 4 Million is alot considering they sold a million Z10s. Well see what the stock does.


I'm interested to know more about this but can't seem to find any information. In particular, where were these subs lost? If they were lost in the US without the presence of these new phones then I would be less worried.


----------



## kcowan

There is also the legacy resentment from the US carriers from when BBM was the only game in town for corporate email.


----------



## SkyFall

No jumping ship! Pretty happy with the stock performance, gonna run throught Q1 releases!


----------



## none

I think this is the kicker:

http://www.geek.com/mobile/blackberry-10-tells-your-friends-when-youre-watching-porn-1550718/


----------



## kcowan

Actually that is a pretty impressive capability. As long as you can selectively turn it on/off...


----------



## SkyFall

Personal thought, the more I look at it, the more I like BB. I mean figures are good, company is still solid they have a solid balance sheet, he someone was willing to give me BB I wouldn't mind running a company with these numbers. And about their future, for now BB is no where near to compete with AAPL and Samsung, everybody knows that, but surely they can fight for 3rd place, which they can do VERY well. And for the Q10 (the one with a physical keyboard) I really see a good opportunity there, only NEW phone with physical keyboard. So the more I look at it the more BB is becoming a longer run then I expected. Gonna probably see how it does, if BB goes anywhere near $18 before next financial releases gonna think about locking down profits, if not will ride this for a few more months.


----------



## Toronto.gal

SkyFall said:


> 1. And for the Q10
> 2. BB is becoming a longer run then I expected.
> 3. gonna think about locking down profits..


*1.* I heard Mr. Wonderful give it rave reviews on the Lang & O'Leary show the other day.
http://www.blackberryos.com/content...bout-dropping-his-iphone-blackberry-z10-5644/

*2. *Same here; I was going to sell most of my shares by end of April, but not anymore!

*3.* Don't think about it, just do it! Keep in mind that it's not exactly the most loved stock out there, so be a happy bear when u can, but be smart with the profits.


----------



## Addy

Thoughts on todays numbers? I'm never good at reading between the lines on these things, I'm hanging on to my BB for mid to long term.

Apr 11, 2013 (Datamonitor via COMTEX News Network) -- Research In Motion Limited, or RIM, a provider of wireless solutions for the mobile communications market, has reported that net income for the fourth quarter ended March 2, 2013 was $98 million, or $0.19 per share, compared to a net loss of $125 million, or $0.24 loss per share, for the same quarter ended March 3, 2012.
Revenue for the fourth quarter ended March 2, 2013 was $2.68 billion, compared to $4.18 billion for the same quarter ended March 3, 2012.

Net loss for the year ended March 2, 2013 was $646 million, or $1.23 loss per share, compared to a net income of $1.16 billion, or $2.22 per share, for the year ended March 3, 2012.

Revenue for the year ended March 2, 2013 was $11.07 billion, compared to $18.42 billion for the year ended March 3, 2012.

"We have implemented numerous changes at BlackBerry over the past year and those changes have resulted in the company returning to profitability in the fourth quarter," said Thorsten Heins, president and CEO.


----------



## SkyFall

Blood in the water today


----------



## SkyFall

Saw the stock weakening even for a pre financial release which gives me the hint to sell, I sold, locking in a small profit of 5%, but thid morning they post loss of 13 cent per share vs 6 profit est. that was a close call hehehheh now wont get in that stock again heehhehe

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-reports-quarterly-loss-shares-plunge-111328915.html


----------



## rknigh2

I'm not totally surprised by the miss at all. I actually sold into the run up, and I'm (secretly) very happy to see this sell-off.

The real question is... they have grown cash to over 3 billion ($6 a share)... what are you willing to pay for QNX, 72 million subs, and their remaining patents etc.? We'll see where the bottom is, but if by some miracle it moves into $6-8 range, I'll be buying a significant number of 2015 calls. The QNX and mobile computing is the real excitement for me with BBRY.


----------



## james4beach

Anyone think that BB is close to bottoming here? The selling was unrelenting.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BB.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21513055737


----------



## m3s

Every time I drive a rental car with a QNX interface.. I wonder why Apple hasn't jumped all over that market. It's just so clunky compared to iOS. Well apparently 14 car makers (and climbing) have signed up for iOS 7 in the car via WiFi or USB. It must just use the screen wirelessly so that you can still use the native QNX without an iPhone. If that's true then maybe QNX will work as the common ground in the car between iOS and Android. I don't remember the last time I saw a Blackberry though.


----------



## james4beach

Off-topic but about the rental cars... I once had a rental car (Ford Focus I think) with a Microsoft based entertainment media center. While driving on the 401, it seized up... I don't know if it was doing a software update or something. Totally hung. I couldn't turn off the radio station I was on. Pulled off the highway, turned OFF the ignition and accessories. The screen is still on and playing music! I exited the car, locked it, let it sit for 5 minutes. Radio still blaring! I was worried what would happen when I parked this car later.

In the end I popped the hood and disconnected a battery lead to COLD REBOOT the Microsoft entertainment system. That shut it up.


----------



## m3s

Yea Ford has had so much bad press and reviews from Microsoft Sync, I don't think any other automakers will touch that one. QNX is supposed to be the most reliable OS out there, I'll give it that. It's just a bit clunky and feels out dated compared to iOS (and I assume Android) On further reading I don't think this iOS in car will replace QNX, just integrate better

"Ford, the second-largest U.S. automaker, reported 400 problems with its MyFord Touch system for every 1,000 vehicles in November 2012. The company previously said it aims to lower that number to 360 by August." And that's probably just the ones Ford acknowledges, the complaints online are unreal.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I've heard a bunch of bad stuff about MS Sync.


----------



## kcowan

james4beach said:


> In the end I popped the hood and disconnected a battery lead to COLD REBOOT the Microsoft entertainment system. That shut it up.


That's a funny story! Somehow I imagined that is how MS would handle any serious problem. Luckily your avoided the BSOD! But this sounds just as bad.


----------



## james4beach

Yeah knowing Microsoft, they probably _would_ have advised me to reboot the car's electrical system.

It's reassuring to know that I'm not the only person who had a problem with MS Sync. As an electrical engineer (who was educated in electronics and control systems) I have little tolerance for malfunctioning software.

I am horrified to think what other Microsoft software may be in a car. I seriously hope there is no MS software behind anything like the engine or braking - this would be so dangerous. As I played with that MS Sync unit, I kept wishing to myself... why couldn't they have just put a regular old fashioned radio in this thing? I have never had a basic AM/FM radio "crash" on me.

Is technology really _improving_?


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> I seriously hope there is no MS software behind anything like the engine or braking - this would be so dangerous.


That could give new meaning to BSOD ...


----------



## m3s

*Four Engineers Diagnose a Car*

The microprocessors should be all programmed in C++ or assembly.. at least in my day. I haven't messed with the CANbus systems, but many days I'd like to just rip it out.. reminds me of a joke

_There are four engineers travelling in a car; a mechanical engineer, a chemical engineer, an electrical engineer and a computer engineer. The car breaks down. “Sounds to me as if the pistons have seized. We’ll have to strip down the engine before we can get the car working again”, says the mechanical engineer. “Well”, says the chemical engineer, “it sounded to me as if the fuel might be contaminated. I think we should clear out the fuel system.” “I thought it might be an grounding problem”, says the electrical engineer, “or maybe a faulty plug lead.” They all turn to the computer engineer who has said nothing and say: “Well, what do you think?” “Ummm – perhaps if we all get out of the car and get back in again?”_


----------



## supperfly17

dotnet_nerd said:


> Breaking news, BBRY possibly going private
> 
> Stock soaring pre-market


Why go private?


----------



## Eclectic12

supperfly17 said:


> Why go private?


Fewer bosses to keep happy, who may or may not be clear on what the turnaround strategy or timeline can be.

As Hudson's Bay has demonstrated, a company can go public, go private, go public again ... etc. (Or in Sobey's case, be private, go public, go private ... ).


Cheers


----------



## dragenn

I had this bad boy running at 50% of my portfolio until today. Im not too impressed that it suddenly worth more if it gets bought out. I need to see vision in the management ( which l see ), and the shareholders ( showing a lot of incompetence ). I thought l would cash out going into the new year ( and probably beyond ) but to see how it plays out is a damn shame. 

I'm going to lighten my shares and diversify. I wasn't doing to bad pulling out "lunch money" here and there with other stocks. I'm going to sit out some of the volatility and try to get some discounts on "heavy dips"


----------



## james4beach

james4beach said:


> Anyone think that BB is close to bottoming here? The selling was unrelenting.
> 
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BB.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21513055737


Heh, looks like BB bottomed right at the moment I got curious whether it bottomed.


----------



## gibor365

the possible sale of BB to US company is rather depressing.... We sold ATI to AMD, now BB in line.... Canada is becoming more and more some kind of "banana republic", just instread of bananas we sell oil, gas and metals


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## rknigh2

I'm selling covered calls against my ~$9/share long position as this thing goes up.

I see two issues in selling the company. BBRY is not in dire need to sell at a bargain ($6 billion in cash and no debt) and any shareholder above $15 (I speculate) would not be voting yes on anything less than $20-25 a share. So the next question is, who are the candidates that are willing to pay $20 billion (looking at you Bezos)? The numbers I have heard on a take-out amount is $10-14 a share, which is laughable to the long term holders.


----------



## HaroldCrump

rknigh2 said:


> BBRY is not in dire need to sell at a bargain ($6 billion in cash and no debt) and any shareholder above $15 (I speculate) would not be voting yes on anything less than $20-25 a share. So the next question is, who are the candidates that are willing to pay $20 billion (looking at you Bezos)? The numbers I have heard on a take-out amount is $10-14 a share, which is laughable to the long term holders.


Not really...beggars can't be choosers.
There is actually a "dire need" for BBY to come to some sort of sell-out arrangement while there is still something left to sell.

Your covered calls at strikes $15 or above is a good strategy.
I can't imagine a situation where this is sold for less than $9/share, but they do need to hurry up.


----------



## Toronto.gal

rknigh2 said:


> 1. would not be voting yes on anything less than $20-25 a share.
> 2. So the next question is, who are the candidates that are willing to pay $20 billion.


1. More like $17-$20 per share IMO. 
2. Maybe Mukesh Ambani.


----------



## rknigh2

HaroldCrump said:


> Not really...beggars can't be choosers.
> There is actually a "dire need" for BBY to come to some sort of sell-out arrangement while there is still something left to sell.
> 
> Your covered calls at strikes $15 or above is a good strategy.
> I can't imagine a situation where this is sold for less than $9/share, but they do need to hurry up.


Yes it's a tough dynamic. No banks are kicking down the door, but the sentiment is certainly that their assets are on borrowed time. It probably makes sense to sell off the hardware and take the other segments private, but the hardware by itself would be a tough sell I think (without giving it away).


----------



## rknigh2

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. More like $17-$20 per share IMO.
> 2. Maybe Mukesh Ambani.



I could handle $17! I paid a bit too much for some 2017 $12 Calls before the ER with ~$16 break even. Clawing the losses back with the covered calls is helping with the sting....


----------



## supperfly17

What happens with the employees if it is sold?


----------



## kcowan

The main impact will be the elimination/restructuring of their stock options.


----------



## Anonymous1

BB to launch new Z30, as well as release BBM on android and iphone devices this week. What's your take on the stock with these coming out??


----------



## kcowan

I think BBM on other phones at least makes them competitive in those large clients that no longer want to be exclusively BBY.


----------



## webber22

Look out below !!! Down 22% and falling. Profit warning issued, 1B loss


----------



## james4beach

Oh this is not good.

But interestingly, made back much of the day's losses. Closed right around where technical support sits close to $9 CAD. That's a technical level established so far from the August decline & recovery.


----------



## marina628

webber22 said:


> Look out below !!! Down 22% and falling. Profit warning issued, 1B loss


Wondering if I should get on this sinking ship ...


----------



## liquidfinance

I am looking forward to getting BBM on Android tomorrow as it is one thing I miss from BB. Although I'm not sure how it could help the company in the long term.


----------



## avrex

I guess it's too late now to ask for a RIM job.

BlackBerry to cut 4,500 jobs


----------



## m3s

avrex said:


> I guess it's too late now to ask for a RIM job.


Good one

Putting BBM on Android is like conceding defeat. Everyone wanted BBM on Android and iOS for years already but they thought keeping it proprietary gave them some kind of special edge. Even Google has their apps on iOS and I think it works well for them. I haven't even seen a single Blackberry in years but I thought they were doing well in the business market?


----------



## Toronto.gal

marina628 said:


> Wondering if I should get on this sinking ship ...


*Marina:* the lowest I bought was at $7 a year ago [I don't even want to remember what I initially bought at, back in 2010, but unfortunately I remember to the penny].

I feel sorry for all those losing their jobs, though I reckon that it wasn't a shock for most of them.

I wonder how many resigned in the last couple of years in anticipation for the worst.

The news yesterday afternoon, though not official, had actually come out on Thursday, so not sure why the stock barely reacted then.


----------



## doctrine

I don't think the news that expected revenues would be $1.6B, and losses would be $1B, on Thursday. That's what propelled the stock downward, not the job losses itself, in my opinion. Dropping nearly 50% revenue in one quarter is a sign the end is near.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Enough bad news was released on Thursday, and not just about layoffs, that should have made the stock dive on Thursday IMHO, but it did not.

Why it pays to be current with the news!
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-MTA0G76TTDT501-6MPBPBRQ155IRU4T8F52KJPGF5


----------



## liquidfinance

Typical BB

Yet another delay. Putting the blame on an unreleased Android app.

http://bizblog.blackberry.com/2013/09/bbm-for-android-iphone-launch-update/


----------



## Addy

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/09...r-company/?_r=1&source=email_rt_mc_body&app=n

Mike Lazaridis, the co-founder of BlackBerry who stepped down as co-chief executive in 2012, has reached out to private equity firms about a possible bid for the troubled company.


----------



## marina628

My nephew worked for them for last decade he left about 15 months ago ,my other two nephews worked for Nortel and one of them lost over $200,000 as he worked for them for 20 years and his stocks went to zip..He use to sock everything he could into the stock to take advantage of whatever deal the employees had back then.He actually suffered a serious breakdown because his entire retirement fund went to not much at all.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I have a friend in HR and it hasn't been a fun job the last couple of years. Everyone avoids her like the plague knowing a call or email from her likely means the end.

I am really not loving my Q10. A diehard blackberry user for over 10 years but this will likely be my last.


----------



## nakedput

company has nice enough assets that they will eventually bought. The CEO has a clause in his contract that states he stands to make 50mm on an acquisition, so its pretty obvious the company will be bought out. The only question is, at what price?


----------



## sags

One day the king of the world...........another day heading for the trash heap.

Sad day for Canada as we lose another iconic company, that was once a world leader.


----------



## andrewf

Never for any reason keep a substantial portion of your net worth in share of your employer. I periodically sell shares. Once per year or so, then transfer to RRSP.


----------



## PatInTheHat

Ihatetaxes said:


> I have a friend in HR and it hasn't been a fun job the last couple of years. Everyone avoids her like the plague knowing a call or email from her likely means the end.
> 
> I am really not loving my Q10. A diehard blackberry user for over 10 years but this will likely be my last.


I'm surprised by this. Absolutely love my Q10 but it obviously has some failings app wise. Not sure if I can ever give up the keyboard.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

No more settings for automatic off and on, can't set different independant tone volume for different types of messages, irritating to have to swipe back and forth between messages and apps, etc. I am constantly missing calls as half the time my phone doesn't ever ring and goes straight to voicemail.

I would trade it back for my last one with the touchpad but I gave that phone away.


----------



## liquidfinance

Well... the global BBM launch couldn't have been a bigger failure. Still no world on when they will continue with the roll out.


----------



## MikeT

Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, good bye.....

Now the game begins. There is a trade to be made here... the only question is what side, and when to pull the trigger. Today might be a good day. Might not..

A lot of pessimism - but legit. This company will not survive as is.

Its no longer a question of IF the company will die, only question is HOW it will go out. Who will buy the whole or the parts and for how much. The cash is there, but the longer the deal takes the less cash there is. So then there's the patents and the BBM thing. Marginal value.. but not worthless.

8 bucks is around 4 billion or so.. Frig, Tumblr went for 1.1 Billion and its just a blog site.


----------



## andrewf

I was amused to see eulogies on the news for Blackberry, and talk about how Waterloo will deal with the loss. Mayor of Waterloo: "Meh." (to paraphrase)


----------



## kcowan

I have two diehard BBY fans who waited for the Q10. They both prefer their Bold. Bad news for BBY fans.

(I have no horse in this race. I own AAPL but was hoping BBY would turn it around for the sake of Canada and Waterloo. I had a BBY in 1999. Loved it. Became proficient with my thumbs.)


----------



## MikeT

Lesson in all this: Tech companies on the leading edge need a visionary leader. Not an execution guy or a business guy. So I am now more positive on Google than any other because they still have their founders at the helm.


----------



## andrewf

Same goes for MSFT and Ballmer, who has been an unmitigated disaster.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Fairfax Financial offers $4.7B.
Marginally higher than the current market cap of $4.4B
Shares halted.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Offer is $9 USD per share.
Last close was $8.48 CAD
It seems the board has agreed to the offer (except FFX nominees, of course).


----------



## newfoundlander61

Well, well the end is near as BB currently stands.


----------



## humble_pie

HaroldCrump said:


> It seems the board has agreed to the offer



but has the world heard the last from Lazarides yet?


----------



## HaroldCrump

I also wonder if this might be an effort by Prem Watsa and FFX to "get the bidding going".
After all, they do not have the financing to complete this deal.
Secondly, it is barely above the current market cap, and in fact, well below the market cap as of last Thu. when the news broke.

Are they hoping to put this offer "out there", and wait for someone else to beat it?


----------



## andrewf

Maybe they're just seeing if they can snap it up without much premium. I'm sure there are large shareholders that would like to exit but can't move many shares near the current market price.

I wouldn't back Lazaridis. I doubt he'll be able to get a bid together.


----------



## blin10

they should take it rather then taking a chance seeing no offers and going bankrupt


----------



## humble_pie

smart thinking HC!

but what if the fat boy doesn't sing? what if no other bidders appear? u don't believe that FFX has the necessary financing?

this sounds like some sort of nightmare naked option assignment. What happens in an offer if the offeror walks out? is it like a house purchase, there's a deposit that gets forfeited?

ps wondering how old is prem watsa now, there seems to be a fair number of near-octogenarians & morbidly obese populating the canadian business summit these days ...


----------



## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> smart thinking HC!
> but what if the fat boy doesn't sing? what if no other bidders appear? u don't believe that FFX has the necessary financing?


FFX was knocking on the doors of the three major pension funds earlier this month - the CPPIB, the OTPP, and one other I forget.
Apparently, they were told to go away.

As late as last week, they had approached a couple of banks and a hodge-podge of private equity firms to put a bid together.

My suspicion is that the news of last Friday forced their hand.
They don't have the financing worked out yet, but given the bad news, they had to jump the gun and put an offer out there.



> this sounds like some sort of nightmare naked option assignment.


Yes, that is a good way to describe it.
I suspect they will manage to put some sort of deal together.
Like George Bush's "coalition of the willing".
Watsa will use his clout to put together a bunch of hedge funds, private equities, patent trolls, etc. to buy the company and then carve it into pieces.

After all, Thanks Giving is just round the corner.


----------



## andrewf

Have the terms of the deal been announced? The size of break fee or conditions of the offer may make it easy or difficult from FFX to get out of the deal.


----------



## HaroldCrump

andrewf said:


> Have the terms of the deal been announced? The size of break fee or conditions of the offer may make it easy or difficult from FFX to get out of the deal.


Yes, those have been made public.
Break fee is 30c. at this stage, and 50c. if a definite agreement is later signed.
FFX has put a funding contingency in there - which addresses humble_pie's earlier point about assignment of a naked put.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

A Deal for BlackBerry That’s Not Yet a Deal



> In this light, the best that can be made of this letter of intent is that it is a Hail Mary pass, aimed in part at putting a temporary floor on BlackBerry’s share price and perhaps kick starting some type of auction. If BlackBerry were more sure of itself, it would have certainly waited until financing could have been lined up.
> As evidence of this, the letter of intent contains an unusual feature. BlackBerry has agreed to pay a fee to Fairfax of 30 cents a share if it enters into a transaction with another party. By my calculations, this is roughly $150 million. Fairfax and BlackBerry said they would seek to sign an agreement by Nov. 4. So $150 million is not a bad payday for running around for a month or two and trying to persuade a bank to rescue BlackBerry.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Optimistically, and with a premium in mind, I believed the company could be sold in the mid teens had their latest updates been successful. Realistically, after last week's near disaster announcements, it just became very sad for all those affected. :frown:


----------



## favelle75

This sucks. Hopefully not too many folks here lost too much $$.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

I believe Blackberry has $2.6 billion cash and Fairfax has over $2.1 billion, in other words Fairfax could buy the company without financing and without partners if he wanted to.

By the way someone released BB's Messenger app for Android a few days ago and it was downloaded 1.1 million times in 8 hours. This leads some experts to believe their software is worth a lot more money than previously estimated.

The $9 offer puts a floor under the stock, if you can buy some for $9 or less what have you got to lose? Or play it with a call option.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I believe Blackberry has $2.6 billion cash


So RIM is basically worth $2B then :rolleyes2: oh boy.



> The $9 offer puts a floor under the stock, if you can buy some for $9 or less what have you got to lose? Or play it with a call option.


I believe that is what FFX may be doing i.e. putting a "floor" on the stock to prevent it sliding even more.
After all, they already own 10% and have a lot to lose if BBY falls back to the $6 level, or even below.

Stk is trading below $9 though, which means two things - market doesn't expect any better offers, and market believes FFX's "coalition of the willing" may not work out.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

According to these Bloomberg articles Blackberry has 5.2 billion in cash, short term investment accounts and notes receivable. The Fairfax offer represents an 80% discount to book value and an 83% discount to the last 12 months' revenue. This is the lowest offer ever for a company of this kind.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-23/how-blackberry-finally-found-its-buyer#r=rss

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...scent-begets-cheapest-tech-deal-real-m-a.html

The whole thing is very mysterious. The company has an excellent product with features no one else offers, a well known brand name and money in the bank. It almost looks like someone has deliberately run the company into the ground so it can be bought up for peanuts, less than they have in cash and cash equivalents with the business, patents, and other assets for nothing.


----------



## Toronto.gal

BlackBerry has been treated like a garbage company for some time, even when their products are anything but. 

Even the late Steve Jobs was often offensive [not just critical, which would have been fine] when talking about BlackBerry, as though there had been any need to trash it at the time he was doing so.


----------



## liquidfinance

Rusty O'Toole said:


> According to these Bloomberg articles Blackberry has 5.2 billion in cash, short term investment accounts and notes receivable. The Fairfax offer represents an 80% discount to book value and an 83% discount to the last 12 months' revenue. This is the lowest offer ever for a company of this kind.
> 
> http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-23/how-blackberry-finally-found-its-buyer#r=rss
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...scent-begets-cheapest-tech-deal-real-m-a.html
> 
> The whole thing is very mysterious. The company has an excellent product with features no one else offers, a well known brand name and money in the bank. It almost looks like someone has deliberately run the company into the ground so it can be bought up for peanuts, less than they have in cash and cash equivalents with the business, patents, and other assets for nothing.



But it doesn't matter how good the hardware or feature set may be. The brand has been damaged and people aren't buying them. Didn't the cash drop something like 1/2 billion in the last 1/4. Is that a company you would risk buying? Whatever the discount?

Look at the latest BBM release fiasco. It's one drama and set back after another with this company.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I wonder why are the federal or provincial governments not "bailing out" BBY?
They have been strangely detached from this whole thing.

They did not show the same reticence and inaction when it came to bailing out the two auto companies in 2009.
I bet RIM could well use a fraction of the $14B bailout given to the 2 auto companies.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Has anyone wondered the real reason MSFT purchased NOK, and for $7.2B I might add?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> Has anyone wondered the real reason MSFT purchased NOK, and for $7.2B I might add?


Umm...because Ballmer is a pompous megalomaniac who likes to make silly acquisitions like Skype?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Nope! But I'm sure you'll figure it out soon enough. 

Btw, I didn't think it was silly to get Skype.


----------



## andrewf

I don't think anyone ever accused Steve Jobs of being a nice guy.

On Skype, I'm not sure I saw the value there. MSFT has serious problems executing, and everything they touch turns to crap. xBox is just about the only counterexample, and they tried really hard to screw up the the xBone (always on camera+microphone in your living room+NSA access+locking down game sharing). On the other hand, I'm glad the CPPIB made a tidy profit selling Skype to MSFT.

Rusty, on the appearance of BBY being deliberately driven into the ground: never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

liquidfinance said:


> But it doesn't matter how good the hardware or feature set may be. The brand has been damaged and people aren't buying them. Didn't the cash drop something like 1/2 billion in the last 1/4. Is that a company you would risk buying? Whatever the discount?
> 
> Look at the latest BBM release fiasco. It's one drama and set back after another with this company.


If you look at the reality behind the news stories you will find the set backs are greatly exaggerated and positive stories are spun into negatives.

According to the Bloomberg stories, the $9 offer is for shares with a book value of $45 and more than $9 of cash and cash equivalents behind them. Yet if you listen to the news stories the shareholders are lucky to get such a generous offer. Even though it is the worst offer ever made for a company of this kind.

It's all like that. When they announce a couple of fixes for their legacy system, that they have not even used in 3 years, the news said "more problems with Blackberry operating system". By rights they should get praise for supporting an old system which is more than most companies do. But somehow it got spun into a negative for their new system.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Interesting proposal from Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker. He is not some nut job, he was the founder and CEO of one of the first ISPs in Chicago. He knows tech and he knows how to run a tech company.

"BlackBerry: I Already Know You'll Ignore Me, But...


... you shouldn't.

See, the market says that FairFax's "bid" is crap. In fact, it doesn't believe the "PUT" that was allegedly written, with your stock trading ~5% below the bid price.

I happen to believe the PUT is real, simply because I looked at FairFax's financials. But that's me.

So let's play assumption for a few minutes. Let's assume that Thor Baby either has a remaining pair of neurons in his head and/or that The Board has two firing neurons somewhere between their members, and further that they are not spending their time blowing Thor (no, that nodding is not approval, it's bobbing, you see.)

Or, let's say the board did something really drastic -- they fired Thor Baby and called me, telling me that they wanted me to run the joint.

What would I do, given that I had a limited amount of time to either "do it or die"?

Well, first, I'd take the job. And I'd only ask for stock options -- at the current price, but with a conversion to P/E equity if the buyout goes. After all, I want to get paid if I win even if FairFax owns the company.

Then what?

Here's the prescription:

There are 1 billion smartphone users in the world today, more or less. I will assume that 10% of them give a damn about security to some degree. This is defined as "the market I intend to own 100% of."

The first day I announce that the crypto code in the BB10 devices is free of spyware and back doors, including NSA and other government back doors. I then publish the source code to the crypto modules along with cryptographic checksums of the binaries. This allows anyone to verify that the source is in fact the binary and has not been tampered with. If there are holes found by that public review, we fix them -- immediately and publicly. Zero cost.

I immediately push out an update for BB10 that enables S/MIME email for all users, not just BES10 users. Now BB10 devices are the only ones in the market with end-to-end secure email out of the box. Period. This is a zero-effort and cost update since the code is already in the handsets. 

I immediately push out an update for BB10 that enables Balance without BES10. Now people who want to separate work and personal use of their phones privately can do so. This is again a unique feature that nobody else has and again it's zero cost.

Between these three changes I now have the only "non-interceptable" device for email out-of-the-box and the only one with the ability to have two distinct personal partitions on the market. That becomes my marketing message: "If you want security and choice, buy BlackBerry devices. If you don't care, buy our competitor's products." That becomes the formal (and not quiet either) message that the market receives about why you want BlackBerry.

I immediately change the Android runtime so as to permit permissions to be toggled off and default them all off. When you load an Android app repackaged as a BAR file the system now brings up a screen with all the requested permissions off and you have to turn them on. Include very explicit warnings for the dangerous permissions at the same time and strongly recommend that the user not enable them.

I go after the PlayStore and Android hard. The "fake" BBM applications are all that is necessary to drive a big fat 2x6 up Android's ***. Run an ad with a guy accidentally loading one of those fake apps as an administrator in a hospital and then watching as his patient database gets immediately uploaded to China. Bawhahahaa.. One 30 second ad and they're done. That would go viral instantly.

I go directly to the carriers and explain to them that I'm well-aware that they hate us -- their actions prove it. I also am well-aware that my competitors have managed to sucker them into penalty clauses for slow sales on my competition's products, which would be a problem for me even if they didn't hate us. All's fair in love, war and business, and this is business. Therefore the bottom line is that since I have FCC IDs for my devices and that's all I need, I'm going to sell direct and unlocked, and I'm also going to allow customers to load the newest firmware at their discretion off my servers without carrier interference. If and when the carriers would like to promote my devices and act like partners then I'm interested in discussing it on non-discriminatory terms. After all, in exchange for support and promotion they deserve a margin. But until they'll provide that and not undermine my product offerings I have exactly zero reason to give up one dollar of margin on the hardware to the carriers.

In short I'm well-aware that perhaps the viewpoint that the carriers have based on prior behavior when there was only BlackBerry may be well-founded, but it wasn't BlackBerry that got them to sign agreements to sell "X" worth of "Y" branded phones or pay a penalty, and I'll be double-damned if they're going to damage my firm because they did something stupid. Nor am I going to provide them with a margin on hardware sales when they lie to customers, try to talk them into buying competitor's products and***** them off when it comes to support, all of which they have actively done for the last year. Further, I know full well what RICO is and if there is active interference with my sales and customer's use of devices on those carrier networks I'll use that law aggressively, including its criminal provisions and I won't be quiet about it either.

If the carriers don't want to support the devices that's fine -- we will do it ourselves and we will market our devices as the secure alternative for those who are tired of carriers who roll over and play lapdog to governments demanding customer location and use information. And we'll keep all of the margin on the hardware, since we're doing all the work.

Oh, and if you think that won't work, yes it will. All the carriers are being forced by the market into non-contract environments. The ability to force customers to pay subsidies via back-door pricing in the service plans is either gone or ending, and exposing that will be part of our marketing message too.

We'll see what Verizon and AT&T think of having their own recently-announced attempt to compete with T-Mobile's "un-carrier" position turned against them. I bet they won't like it but there isn't anything they can do about it, never mind the fact that Virgin and Boost along with all the other MVNOs can use the handsets as well.

I hire a group of 20 programmers -- all aces. Their task? Two-fold, and it's a million bucks each for them if they pull off the job which consists of:
Porting LibreOffice to BB10.
Decoupling the HDMI resolution from the screen resolution so the full resolution of an HDMI-connected display is available.

I give them 30 days to show me a working device and 60 for releasable code. Two months, a million bucks each. Hell of a deal. By doing these two things I now have (1) a dockable tablet replacement (BB10 already handles Bluetooth keyboards and mice) and (2) wide-screen capability. Coupled with the existing secure remote file access I now have the first-on-market and very functional part of a full mobile device strategy. Apple will never do this because it will destroy their tablet market, and for the same reason the Android phone makers won't do it either. This is what the "Linuxphone" people wanted to build and I'm going to do it first.

Now I have the only secure way to extend the corporate network anywhere with a device that does what the common worker's laptop or desktop machine does and has access to all of the corporate network, fits in your pocket, has an inexpensive, thin and small screen, keyboard and mouse available if you want one in your briefcase and which is secure at the same time.

BlackBerry can own this market in a couple of months at minimal cost.

The next step is to come up with a relatively-inexpensive WiFi -> HDMI box that will plug into any HDMI-capable device and feed both video and audio. Write the companion driver and release the specs on the receiver side. Now I have wireless video for when you don't want to use a cable. Can I get there on WiFi that's in the existing devices? Yes. 1920x1080 is 2 million pixels. I have ~65Mbps on 802.11n without MIMO. With modest compression this works handily (it also comports reasonably well with BlueRay video that has bitrates in the ~40Mbps area, incidentally, which is another potential market use for this device -- and a reason for companies to embed it in their displays.) Target this for release within six months. Very achievable and not very expensive.

Might this strategy fail? Sure.

But I'm very sure there are 100 million customers out there who give a damn about security, and I'm willing to bet I can market to them and own them, where the other guys cannot. And that part of the strategy has zero cost to the company, or damn close to it.

Further, that 100 million customers make the company not only viable but extremely profitable -- and that's before I destroy the "tablet" craze and own that segment of the market too.

Come and get it BlackBerry."


----------



## kcowan

Sound like Karl needs to be a little like Steve Jobs to pull that off. Unfortunately, there are no more Jobs around that can be recruited by BBY...


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Yeah it's really, um, complicated. That's why Thorsten Hein gets $3,000,000 a year plus incentives, and why he will get $55,000,000 if the company is sold.


----------



## Karlou

Hi guys,

Questions about BBY

How come BBY is trading at 8,38$ right now if there is an offer to buy at 9 US$ which is around 9,27$ CDN?

Is it possible that the profit warning was "exaggerated" in order to make it cheaper to buy by Fairfax?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Karlou said:


> How come BBY is trading at 8,38$ right now if there is an offer to buy at 9 US$ which is around 9,27$ CDN?


There could be several reasons:
- Time latency until deal closing. Market is valuing $9 after 6 months = $8.38 now
- Uncertainty around FFH's financing. It seems Watsa is personally going around knocking on doors of large pension plans to help fund this deal. There are also going to issue new equity and/or debt notes.
- General market disappointment at the offer. Previous estimates for net value of the company ranged anywhere from $15 to $35, but none was as low as this.



> Is it possible that the profit warning was "exaggerated" in order to make it cheaper to buy by Fairfax?


Entirely possible. It is not unusual for companies to put out speculative bad news to create the perception of attractive valuation for private placements.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Evidently the market does not believe Fairfax will follow through. This doesn't figure, as Prem Watsa has made no secret of his plans, has previously stated that the company is worth $18 - $45 a share, he resigned his position on the board to make this offer, and he has enough cash on hand to do the deal. So I would say he is serious, and that there is nothing to hold up the deal whether he can find other investors or not. As for the due diligence, he was on the board of directors up until a month ago, what could he find out that he doesn't already know, that is serious enough to kill the deal?

The whole thing is unbelievable to me. $9 a share represents less than 50% of book value and 40% of the last 12 months' sales. No tech company has ever sold this cheap. I don't see why someone else doesn't come along with a better offer. Maybe they will.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

This is a real lesson in perceived value. There are other tech companies that have no where near what Blackberry has, that had no profits, and no serious prospect of making any yet somehow their stock sold for 10 times, 100 times book value or more.


----------



## Karlou

Thanks for your comments

And waiting hopefully for a better offer for BBY
I agree with you Rusty, it's a steal at 9 US$


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Latest report from NASDAQ indicates a short interest of 143 million shares. This is 27% of the shares outstanding and it represents more than 5 days average volume. This must all be covered before the takeover takes effect. Won't that buying affect the price?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Rusty, so basically you are saying that FFH/Watsa is making a killer deal buying BBY far below fair value?
If so, why is no one else in the entire global capital market interested?
Even with break-up fee of 30c. a share, it would still be worth while for someone else if this were worth $12, $15 or more, no?


----------



## PatInTheHat

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Latest report from NASDAQ indicates a short interest of 143 million shares. This is 27% of the shares outstanding and it represents more than 5 days average volume. This must all be covered before the takeover takes effect. Won't that buying affect the price?


I've always been curious how this plays out for short sellers as well


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

HaroldCrump said:


> Rusty, so basically you are saying that FFH/Watsa is making a killer deal buying BBY far below fair value?
> If so, why is no one else in the entire global capital market interested?
> Even with break-up fee of 30c. a share, it would still be worth while for someone else if this were worth $12, $15 or more, no?


That is what I would like to know. The sharks should be all over this deal and so should other tech companies.

It is not unusual for takeover artists to try and buy up a company cheap when it is down and out. What is unusual is that no other bidders smell a profit and jump in.

The other mystery is why the price had drifted as low as $7.99 US when you have a free put at $9. In other words a guaranteed arbitrage profit at any price below $9.


----------



## Addy

I'm already down $2200 if I sell right now. I don't know enough to know if I should buy more, get out now in case it goes even lower or just sit and wait and see how it plays out.


----------



## liquidfinance

Rusty O'Toole said:


> That is what I would like to know. The sharks should be all over this deal and so should other tech companies.
> 
> It is not unusual for takeover artists to try and buy up a company cheap when it is down and out. What is unusual is that no other bidders smell a profit and jump in.
> 
> The other mystery is why the price had drifted as low as $7.99 US when you have a free put at $9. In other words a guaranteed arbitrage profit at any price below $9.




Down and out. But where are the prospects?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/blackberry-loses-965m-in-2nd-quarter-1.1870447


----------



## MikeT

I just read over Watsa's comments on the deal. Wow. This man doesn't get it. He has just offered way too much money for a dying company and thinks he's somehow doing the deal of the century. I don't think he has committed enough to kill off his own company yet, so shorting won't help.


----------



## FrugalTrader

The thing is that Watsa isn't putting any additional money into the deal. Just rolling over it's existing equity in BBRY (~$500M), and finding financing for the rest.


----------



## MikeT

To answer the questions above about why the stock is trading below the offer price:

This deal is never going to happen.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Addy said:


> I'm already down $2200 if I sell right now. I don't know enough to know if I should buy more, get out now in case it goes even lower or just sit and wait and see how it plays out.


Don't put more good money after bad...I'd either sell now and move on to something different or ride out what you have left, but if this deal falls through, who knows how far it could fall. There doesn't seem to be much interest in Blackberry (at least for take over).


----------



## MikeT

Rusty and Toronto Gal: wake up. Blackberry is dying. What have you got to lose? About 9 dollars per share. Their products are good? Huh? What are you talking about? They sold far less in the entire quarter (for less money) than apple did in 3 days. 

Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, good bye...


----------



## Synergy

I've been a loyal Blackberry user for the past 6 yrs and I've been very pleased with the quality, security and functionality of their products - no complaints (business & personal). I'm not a shareholder - personally I stay away from individual tech stocks but I hope the company does survive. They also have a great product / business name IMO, and berries are healthier than apples :encouragement:


----------



## mike06

I dont know how anyone could justify an investment in this unless its simply for a trade from its current price to $9. I dont see any way they fetch more than that, and who knows if this deal will even go through. This is a dying company and realistically they have been for sale for quite awhile and nobody has shown any interest. Take your $9 and run with it. Upside here is limited.


----------



## Sherlock

I've never been a fan of RIM but I gotta admit the Z10 is a solid device... well built hardware, and the OS is very good (better than android/ios). The ap store is not as big as Google's or Apple's ap stores but pretty much any important ap that you can find for android/ios, there is a blackberry equivalent. Netflix is a conspicuous omission, there are a few more. If the Z10 had come out at least a year earlier BB wouldn't be near death right now, but for some reason they just sat around and watched as android and apple took all the market share.


----------



## blin10

I agree, i shorted this thing around high 20's and too bad i covered short in low 20's, should of held that short.... whoever says this is a good value need to wake up, if nobody will take it over this thing is going to sink, i'd take $9 a share then $3,$2 or $0.5 ... was reading the other day, t-mobile will no longer carry blackberry, that's a grave sign



MikeT said:


> Rusty and Toronto Gal: wake up. Blackberry is dying. What have you got to lose? About 9 dollars per share. Their products are good? Huh? What are you talking about? They sold far less in the entire quarter (for less money) than apple did in 3 days.
> 
> Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, good bye...


----------



## Sherlock

T-mobile still sells blackberries, you misunderstood.


----------



## blin10

Sherlock said:


> T-mobile still sells blackberries, you misunderstood.


I never said they don't sell, what I was saying is that they don't carry them in stores anymore.... http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/25/us-blackberry-tmobileus-idUSBRE98O16P20130925


----------



## MikeT

I had my finance guy over this morning to figure out how much leverage I can get. With taking maximum equity from both my properties plus all my liquid assets I can do a pretty big short here. Fingers crossed!!!


----------



## MrMatt

MikeT said:


> I had my finance guy over this morning to figure out how much leverage I can get. With taking maximum equity from both my properties plus all my liquid assets I can do a pretty big short here. Fingers crossed!!!


Hah, I needed a good laugh.
Sure the market thinks this deal will fall apart, but a highly leveraged short seems crazy.


----------



## mike06

MikeT said:


> I had my finance guy over this morning to figure out how much leverage I can get. With taking maximum equity from both my properties plus all my liquid assets I can do a pretty big short here. Fingers crossed!!!


This is suicide. You missed your chance for the easy short. Be prepared to lose a 75 cents a share here, that $9 deal although there are doubters it looks pretty solid. Watsa has publicly stated that he is prepared to take them out at 9, and given his track record with the stock I dont think hes saying that without believing it. 
I dont think its worth it to be in on this one on either the long or the short side.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Many analysts are now forecasting that the $9 deal will fall apart, and there will be a different deal in the $7 to $8.20 range.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/blackberry-analysts-see-deal-likely-below-9-2013-09-30?link=sfmw


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Mr. Watsa has stated in no uncertain terms that he is not in the habit of making offers he cannot follow through on, that he does not renegotiate once he has a deal, and that he believes Blackberry has huge advantages in the enterprise market if not in the consumer market. He also does not pay much attention to the market value of a stock. He does his own analysis and bases his decisions on the value of the company as a business, not on the day's market price which in the case of Blackberry, was once way too high and is now way too low. He prefers to buy when the price is low.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...et-underestimates-blackberry/article14596250/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...s-over-blackberry-deal-mount/article14540650/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/26/us-blackberry-offer-watsa-idUSBRE98O14V20130926


----------



## Toronto.gal

MikeT said:


> 1. Rusty and Toronto Gal: wake up. Blackberry is dying.
> 2. What have you got to lose?
> 3. Their products are good? They sold far less in the entire quarter (for less money) than apple did in 3 days.


*1.* Thanks for the concern & wake-up call Mike, lol. Believe it or not, I have been following the disappointing news very closely, and not just quarter by quarter. 

*2.* At this point, nothing at all. I have had 3 wake-up calls in as many years with this stock, which resulted in significant losses one year, but greater gains in 2012/13 for having bought at the 2012 lows.

Last red flag for me, came a day before the official announcement about their huge unsold inventory; it was safe to assume that the stock would once again plunge.

*3.* Yes, they are good. Numbers don't always tell the entire story, though they can't be ignored.

*How the smartphone inventor failed to adapt *
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ackberry-is-failing/article14563602/?page=all


----------



## marina628

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Thanks for the concern & wake-up call Mike, lol. Believe it or not, I have been following the disappointing news very closely, and not just quarter by quarter.
> 
> *2.* At this point, nothing at all. I have had 3 wake-up calls in as many years with this stock, which resulted in significant losses one year, but greater gains in 2012/13 for having bought at the 2012 lows.
> 
> Last red flag for me, came a day before the official announcement about their huge unsold inventory; it was safe to assume that the stock would once again plunge.
> 
> *3.* Yes, they are good. Numbers don't always tell the entire story, though they can't be ignored.
> 
> *How the smartphone inventor failed to adapt *
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ackberry-is-failing/article14563602/?page=all


Am I the only one who still loves the phone?I did not get my upgrade to q10 yet as I assumed there will be few bugged in it.I want to get it but my husband and daughter are telling me to forget it .


----------



## PatInTheHat

marina628 said:


> Am I the only one who still loves the phone?I did not get my upgrade to q10 yet as I assumed there will be few bugged in it.I want to get it but my husband and daughter are telling me to forget it .


I love my Q10 but I have no reference to counter point as I have been a blackberry user for many years now.


----------



## kcowan

That article is a great summary. Thanks.

Added: Marina several of my friends prefer their Bold to their Q10.


----------



## Synergy

kcowan said:


> That article is a great summary. Thanks.
> 
> Added: Marina several of my friends prefer their Bold to their Q10.


The Bold 9900 with physical keyboard and touch screen is a great phone - I'm still quite happy with it and don't feel the need to upgrade to anything just yet...


----------



## Addy

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013...E99400220131005?source=email_rt_mc_body&app=n

BlackBerry Ltd, on the block as its smartphone business struggles, is in talks with Cisco Systems, Google Inc and SAP about selling them all or parts of itself, several sources close to the matter said.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Last week every Blackberry story was negative and the stock sank, this week the news is positive and the stock is rising.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Last week every Blackberry story was negative and the stock sank, this week the news is positive and the stock is rising.


Well, yeah... :biggrin:


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

But the news itself has not changed. The stories that are appearing this week could as easily have appeared last week with one exception. The stories that appeared last week were not "news" they were opinion pieces and not very well informed opinion at that.


----------



## Synergy

> Rogers reverses decision after backlash, says it will sell BlackBerry Z30 - The move comes after Rogers faced a backlash on message boards and Twitter last week from customers.


 http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/roge...sh-says-it-will-sell-blackberry-z30-1.1490986

Nice to see some strong consumer support...


----------



## Addy

Now the latest Cisco is interested in purchasing Blackberry. It seems like a never ending saga!


----------



## HaroldCrump

Uh oh....prepare for bloodbath at open


----------



## SkyFall

HaroldCrump said:


> Uh oh....prepare for bloodbath at open



yeah and holycow

" BlackBerry abandons sale plan, replaces CEO Thorsten Heins: Report "

Pre-market BBRY @ 6.35 (-1.41) - 18.28%


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Here's the press release from BlackBerry...

http://www.marketwired.com/press-re...l-other-institutional-nasdaq-bbry-1847833.htm


----------



## humble_pie

CanadianCapitalist said:


> Here's the press release from BlackBerry...
> 
> http://www.marketwired.com/press-re...l-other-institutional-nasdaq-bbry-1847833.htm



gosh only minutes before - at 8:13 am - the Globe had an article w headline implying that Fairfax had backed out.

" BlackBerry-Fairfax takeover dies" screamed globe's headline.

but it turns out prem watsa's fairfax is principal participant in the rescue deal, picking up one-quarter or $250M of the debentures in the $1 billion package? if so i'm not getting this premarket plunge ...


----------



## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> if so i'm not getting this premarket plunge ...


The plunge started as soon as the first part of the news broke that Fairfax is pulling out of the buy-out deal.
Then shares were halted (still halted).
By the time the halt is lifted, the market will figure out whether to bid it up from here or push it down.


----------



## humble_pie

HaroldCrump said:


> The plunge started as soon as the first part of the news broke that Fairfax is pulling out of the buy-out deal.
> Then shares were halted (still halted).
> By the time the halt is lifted, the market will figure out whether to bid it up from here or push it down.



just idly speculating here ...

who are fairfax's partners in the deal? i haven't seen any names

was this something like watsa figured how much he'd have to pay if he walked out cold vs how much he might lose on the debentures if/when blackberry6 finally does get itself sold ... then he chose the less painful path?


----------



## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> was this something like watsa figured how much he'd have to pay if he walked out cold vs how much he might lose on the debentures if/when blackberry6 finally does get itself sold ... then he chose the less painful path?


Something along those lines.
A company with only $3.6B of market cap, and nearly $2B in cash on hand already, requires another $1B in cash?
With no new product line under development.
Why?


----------



## 0xCC

HaroldCrump said:


> Something along those lines.
> A company with only $3.6B of market cap, and nearly $2B in cash on hand already, requires another $1B in cash?
> With no new product line under development.
> Why?


That, Detective Spooner, is the right question.

How do you take control of a company without actually buying it?


----------



## doctrine

$2B in cash, plus $1B in loans, and apparently $500M in a tax refund plus up to $1B in real estate they may cash in. It's essentially closing in on 'cash on hand' - but if they ruin $1B a year on new cell phones, well, that can disappear quickly too.


----------



## MikeT

MrMatt said:


> Hah, I needed a good laugh.
> Sure the market thinks this deal will fall apart, but a highly leveraged short seems crazy.


I'm up almost 1 million as of today and it's partially covered now. Hope you had a good laugh.


----------



## MikeT

mike06 said:


> This is suicide. You missed your chance for the easy short. Be prepared to lose a 75 cents a share here, that $9 deal although there are doubters it looks pretty solid. Watsa has publicly stated that he is prepared to take them out at 9, and given his track record with the stock I dont think hes saying that without believing it.
> I dont think its worth it to be in on this one on either the long or the short side.



So... again... hope you had a good laugh too.


----------



## andrewf

Just because a trade goes your way does not mean it was a good trade, on a R/R basis.


----------



## doctrine

MikeT, if you actually went through with that, you have guts, that's for sure, and well done. I'm as big a bear as anyone on RIM (it's obvious if you look at their financials), but I saw few if any people as convinced as you that the deal would absolutely fail with no other real alternate plans.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Certainly the surprise element yesterday for some [? most], except MikeT, of course.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

If anybody cares I am out of BB as of Thursday @ 6.90 - 6.92


----------



## WillyA

As much as I love blackberry, I see their stock going the way of yellow media (I got burnt badly on that one). Although a part of me thinks they can still make this work


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Blackberry still makes a good phone and their OS is superior but they did not promote it effectively. Whether new management can turn things around remains to be seen. They have a lot to offer especially to the business, professional and government user. Not so much to teenage girls.


----------



## jcgd

Toronto.gal said:


> Certainly the surprise element yesterday for some [? most], except MikeT, of course.


I recall reading something mentioning they were hard pressed getting backing for the financing before the bomb dropped. I think it might have been Canadian business magazine but I'll have to double check.


----------



## Addy

Any ideas why the recent jump? Time to buy?


----------



## Toronto.gal

BB nearing $11, very nice from the Dec. low of $5.79!


----------



## Islenska

Not many things I hate but BB stock is one!

Have taken my losses and moved on nicely but still a conundrum how the operation could tank like this.

Own and use a Playbook all the time, great product, have the new phone, great product............

Sometimes in stock picking-----"Stick to your knitting", my rant for the week.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Islenska said:


> how the operation could tank like this.


Was pretty unbelievable, no doubt.

I'm interested though, to see if Mr. Chen is indeed a 'turnaround artist.' Compare him to Thorsten Heins....hmmm, just in the communication department, there is zero comparison.


----------



## silverbull89

Addy said:


> Any ideas why the recent jump? Time to buy?


http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...-5-citron-sees-15-value-shorts-are-all-wrong/

It may have something to do with this. I got in today at 10.63 out at 11.28. Cant complain about that. It may jump tomorrow as no us investors were trading today. Who knows, I'm still not long on BB.


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ The question was posed in Dec., and back then, the rise had everything to do with what Mr. Chen was saying regarding his vision & turnaround strategy; rising 16% on the day Q3 was reported.
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/20/blackberry-ltd-chen-turnaround/?__lsa=57b2-e76c

Oh, and today's jump had to do with this announcement:
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/01/20/blackberry-ltd-pentagon-disa/?__lsa=c355-eefe


----------



## silverbull89

Toronto.gal said:


> ^ The question was posed in Dec., and back then, the rise had everything to do with what Mr. Chen was saying regarding his vision & turnaround strategy; rising 16% on the day Q3 was reported.
> http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/20/blackberry-ltd-chen-turnaround/?__lsa=57b2-e76c
> 
> Oh, and today's jump had to do with this announcement:
> http://business.financialpost.com/2014/01/20/blackberry-ltd-pentagon-disa/?__lsa=c355-eefe


Woops my bad on that reply. Yes I had read this last night http://www.ubergizmo.com/2014/01/blackberry-expected-to-be-the-pentagons-device-of-choice/

T gal, Do you think the 15$ price will happen?


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ Let me check my crystal ball SB. :encouragement:

Let's just say that Mr. Chen has surprised me thus far, and who knows, he may be the next Hunter Harrison in the tech space. You know what they say about management.

Mr. C's back to basics/roots approach is very smart IMHO. The comparisons with Heinz are really like day and night, but surely there are still a lot of big ifs.

A short interview...compare that to any of Heinz'.
http://www.nytimes.com/video/technology/100000002613895/blackberrys-chief-on-foxconn.html


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

The announcement that the US government was buying 80,000 Blackberries was only part of it. Much more influential was this report from CitronResearch

http://www.citronresearch.com/blackberry-why-the-shorts-and-analysts-have-it-wrong/

This report came out on Friday. Blackberry bottomed on December 10 and has been in a uptrend ever since. Evidently the market has faith in Mr. Chen.

I got back into Blackberry last Wednesday basically on the same information that was before the public all along, spurred by the technical action. I bought some June $9 calls in the US market when BBRY was $8.32. The calls cost $1, today they were as high as $2.08. Go Blackberry!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Evidently the market has faith in Mr. Chen.


And with good reason! He's very clear/focused/realistic/quick! In just a little over 2 months, Mr. Chen has been very impressive, but longer-term remains to be seen.

*"I've been in business long enough to know that you never say never."* - Indeed!

For the time being at least, he's indeed chasing away short-sellers.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

For the record, sold some Blackberry June 11 calls for $1.24 against my June 9 calls. So I now have a free trade and possible $2 payoff.


----------



## sags

Blackberry is selling most of their Canadian real estate.

_BlackBerry is selling the majority of its Canadian real estate holdings in a bid to shore up its cash position and further shrink its sprawling, money-losing operations, as it struggles to refocus the business on its enterprise base._

http://business.financialpost.com/2...-of-its-canadian-real-estate/?__lsa=7e8d-75fa


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

To go with the $3.2 Billion they have in the bank. The real estate sale/leaseback deal should raise about $285 million. New CEO Chen says they should be revenue neutral by the end of 2015.


----------



## Addy

What are others here doing with their BB stock, or have you already sold yours? I'm holding mine, not convinced yet either way. John Chen seemed to boost the stock price back in Dec/Jan. I'm not convinced on the playbook idea.

http://berryus.com/alleged-blackberry-cyclone-bbtv-images-surface/


----------



## Synergy

Looking forward to the release of their new phones. I'd like to eventually upgrade to one of the new QWERTY keyboard designs, currently using and quite happy with the Bold 9900. I just wish they would have rounded off the corners of the passport, it looks somewhat like a weapon! Drop that thing and it will definitely put a dent in your floor. I also like the track pad on the BB Bold and wish they would have included this feature into their new phones.

Here's to hoping the keyboard doesn't die!

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/6/19/Analysts-not-interested-in-new-Blackberry-phone.aspx


----------



## PatInTheHat

Passport phone is looking slick. Day traded BBRY over the last couple days for a tidy profit. Still rocking my Q10!


----------



## PuckiTwo

*Blackberry buys German SECUSMART*

Interesting announcement in German-language Wallstreet Journal, Blackberry announced the purchase of SECUSMART, a company located in Duesseldorf which specializes on encryption technologies to "hinder hackers and ..... to tap into mobile communications" (so the article) The technology of Secusmart runs on Blackberry10 devices". BB CEO John Chen was quoted "that it provides a high quality technology for which you can ask money - and that it offers a large advantage to the competition". 

In the German market BB.T was down -3.3% at time of reporting.http://www.wsj.de/articleSB10001424052702304356804580059184002169538.html and is now up approx.1%. With this acquisition BB tries to get back to its original roots.
*Note:* the article is in German, I have tried to translate the major points. I am not taking any responsibility for the correctness of the translation.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Here's an English article about the same 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ti-eavesdropping-acquisition/article19818840/


----------



## PuckiTwo

HaroldCrump said:


> Here's an English article about the same http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ti-eavesdropping-acquisition/article19818840/


Hahaha - should have looked there first but the Wallstreet Journal popped up on my screen and I started to read.


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## Synergy

"Ford workforce to drop BlackBerry, converting to iPhones"

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/7/29/Ford-workforce-to-drop-BlackBerry-converting-to-iPhones-.aspx


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## Addy

Blackberry teaming up with Samsung

http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/blackberry-and-samsung-joining-forces-on-security-tech-1.2100653


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