# SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX: SNC)



## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

What do you think about this stock and the company,best one in its sector?does this belong in a dividend investors acct?anybody own shares?...thoughts?


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

There were questions about accounting irregularities in this company, enough for me to delete it from my watch list and never to bother again.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

For what it's worth, refer to page 2 of article:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...e-dividend-growth-stars/article2074926/page2/


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Hi:

I have held SNC for about 15 years. I have sold it down a number of times and even now it is overweight in my portfolio at 6.3% of holdings.

It is one of the premiere engineering services companies on the planet. It keeps growing sales, earnings and dividends. I intend to take the balance of my shares to the grave, overweight be damned.

It is never cheap. One needs to hold one's nose and dive in.

hboy43


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

snc lavalin is an interesting possibililty if the clamour about global recession & depression can be discounted.

an even more interesting alternative to snc is junior rival genivar, also montreal-based.

well-established genivar is handling major engineering & infrastructure projects across canada. Its next chapter is to steadily increase its international participation, the arena in which snc has succeeded so well. IMHO there's plenty of room for big canadian civil engineers out there & maple leaf engineers have a good internat'l reputation.

some data bases will show a very high dividend yield for genivar. Don't be fooled. These are reading backwards to 2010, the last year in which GNV was a unit trust that customarily paid out an extra large distribution at the end of every year. Now that genivar is a corporation i would expect excess funds will be reinvested internally in expansion, not paid out to shareowners. Genivar is, however, continuing to pay its regular dividend of 1.50, which puts its current dividend yield at a healthy 5.58%.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

SNC made a few headlines today.

The Canadian fed has been trying to dump AECL (crown corp nuclear tech/services co.) since 2009. As Bruce Power and OMERS stepped out of the deal, SNC remained its sole bidder. The sale is supposed close sometime this week. Among SNC's new responsibilities to the nuclear industry are R&D, engineering, construction, maintenance, diagnostics, waste management. SNC plans to swing AECL from losses to profit by marketing AECL's ACR-1000 Gen III+ reactor design.

Cross your fingers nothing bad happens. SNC has a questionable ethics track record.


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Hmmm... I'm not sure if I want to gamble any more money on this. I am bordering on purchasing some shares and seeing how it goes. When generally is the best time to buy when a company takes over? In this case it's not a normal take over really is it, so I'm a bit apprehensive.


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## MoneyMaker (Jun 1, 2009)

great company showing >20% ROE over 5 and 10 year time frames


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Homerhomer said:


> There were questions about accounting irregularities in this company, enough for me to delete it from my watch list and never to bother again.


more troubles for it's questionable dealings.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-probe-35-million-in-payments/article2352286/

22% haircut, wow, on one hand it may be a buying/trading opportunity, on the other hand where there is a smoke there is a fire, are they involved in tree growing by any chance.


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## Med (Feb 2, 2012)

Do you guys think it could get worst on friday??


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Earlier this yr., an fellow I know who works for SNC told me how the "shady side" of dealing with some of the Middle Eastern Companies- namely Libya. , among other projects. From what I understand, bidding with some of the (once) powerful Libya gov't officials was corrupt. SNC bid on the construction of the Libya airport. I don't know whether this is relevant to the decline of SNC, and has anything to do with the accounting irregularities, but it all sounded rather murky.


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## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

Does anyone think this is a buying opportunity?
I have read the news and to me this sounds like another BP moment to me.
I am willing to be patient as long as there is no chance of the company going under because of this or being delisted or halted.
I don't believe the dividend will be cut either.
If it's a 3 year wait for this stock to get back to the $60 range it used to be, I am willing to be patient.

anything thinks this is a good idea and buying?


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

SixesAndSevens said:


> anything thinks this is a good idea and buying?


you know, i always wanted a piece of SNC and Stantec as well, because they have good cash flows when the markets are hot.

but to me, there is too many good companies out there to risk anything.



> where there is a smoke there is a fire


this just rings too true.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Accounting irregularities = sell.


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## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

Went ahead and bought a small position at $37.75.
I normally buy positions very rarely and only when there is a big event but I take large positons.
this could go either way so I made a smaller position.
we'll see.
it's trending downwards even as I write this so there is likely lots of pain to come in the next few days and months ahead.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

There is never one cockroach... It's best to stay away until the air clears.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

SixesAndSevens said:


> Does anyone think this is a buying opportunity?
> 
> 
> anything thinks this is a good idea and buying?



Theres nothing wrong with waiting 2-3 weeks to buy this...it seems to me the market thinks there is more than just Libya wrong. 

Should have seen the haircut coming as a few touts on BNN were recommending this stock recently lol.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Eder said:


> Should have seen the haircut coming as a few touts on BNN were recommending this stock recently lol.


No kidding, it's a pretty good indication things are about to turn sour ;-)


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> There is never one cockroach... It's best to stay away until the air clears.


I so agree!

I don't own this one and would not touch it now, not even for trading, even if it dropped another 20%.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

but they're all like that.

all the multinationals.

in every country. That's how they carry on.

do you know the story of UUU's origin, t.gal. It's a lot worse.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> do you know the story of UUU's origin, t.gal. It's a lot worse.


Oh yes, I know about scandals being everywhere & we would never really know all there is to know, no matter the company. 

But what I meant is that this stock will drop further IMHO [another 20% may have been an exaggeration, or not], so I'm staying away for now, as the story is still new and there might be more to come [if not today or tomorrow, next week, etc.].

I like solid companies that crash, but the reason behind it is an important consideration. At the end of the day, it's all about timing more than anything else.


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

Geographic risk is something I avoid in my portfolio, especially in the miners. I try to stay in the stable parts of the world. Things like this can happen out of nowhere.

As far as the stock now, Im thinking of buying as a turnaround; still a great company minus Libya


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

SNC was up over 5% at one point today and there was large volume. Anyone trading this one?


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Hi:

I added 400 shares 2 days ago to hold 1600.

My take on this is that there was someone rogue in Libya. They have commissioned an audit to get to the bottom of this. There is nothing coming out of head office, because they don't know anything new from a few days ago.

SNC is kind of stuctured like a holding company. They have literally dozens (100s?) of international offices with a few dozen employees each. Most of the employees I think would be engineers and the like. The whole outfit is really hired gun project managers. While it is possible that the whole place is a corrupt, bribing mess, I kind of doubt it. Surely one or two of the thousands of engineers on staff would have remembered their oath and blown a whistle years or decades ago if this were the case. The company is 100+ years old IIRC.

Anyhow, that is my take on it and I put additional cash on the line in support of it.

hboy43


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i also bought 300 shares 2 days ago. Never thought there would be an opportunity at such low cost.

i would imagine there are far more than 1 rogue. SNC has already let go 3 personnel, but there are many outside contractors & hangers-on.

the role of ambassador-to-libya's husband as advisor to the new libyan prison complex is a jarring new fact to emerge. What was DFAIT thinking of in allowing this. I am hoping the media spotlight will be turned on DFAIT spousal & crony businesses in other countries.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I think humble pie is playing this one right as he seems to know the company and is taking a chance on buying it cheap as he sees a bargain. On trusting the company and buying it I think you would have to be an insider to do that because almost no one can be trusted.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

According to Canadian Insider they have not recorded any recent insider buys but I'm not sure what their lag time is.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> There is never one cockroach... It's best to stay away until the air clears.


Good call...


Looks like they are getting sued for 250 million.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

what else would you expect. The law firm specializes in class actions. In its own words, "We are one of Canada's go-to firms for class actions."

probably been working this one up for months.
.


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## Soils4Peace (Mar 14, 2010)

Argonaut said:


> Accounting irregularities = sell.





CanadianCapitalist said:


> There is never one cockroach... It's best to stay away until the air clears.


http://www.internationalrivers.org/...engineering-firm-found-guilty-bribery-lesotho
Reputation is everything for a consulting firm. It is about trust and relationships; consulting is not a commodity. You can make money in Libya or wherever, but other clients may avoid you like the plague on the whiff of a scandal. Acres International is history.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Eder said:


> Looks like they are getting sued for 250 million.


That's not a surprise. Pretty much every company with even a mere whiff of scandal gets sued.


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

I'll be buying a small amount in tfsa as a turnaround play, would like to see another day of bad news first to depress the stock more. Similar to how I played APC and RIG a few yrs ago.


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## rusty23 (Jan 25, 2012)

riseofamillionaire said:


> I'll be buying a small amount in tfsa as a turnaround play, would like to see another day of bad news first to depress the stock more. Similar to how I played APC and RIG a few yrs ago.


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120326-708806.html

stock barely flinched


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Day High 41.89 
Day Low 37.50

Wow


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## LOST (Aug 30, 2010)

Also bought as a turn around play. Miscue at RBC got me an extra 200 shares that I did not want. When I told them about the extra shares they told me "TOO BAD" nothing they can do.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Whose mistake was it - yours or theirs?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

it was a miscue.

i have a friend who keeps sending wrong option orders. She calls it "shooting herself in the foot." She accepts the consequences.

one can't expect discount brokers to hold one's hand. An order sent with an error is an order sent with the client's error.

re snc, i have my 300 shares bought after the crash plus my short september calls (the 44s) & i'm happy enough. I would not touch this stock without receiving a healthy premium in option sales first, though.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

The RCMP raided the offices of SNC in Montreal.
Stock is down 5%.
I'd say your short Sep $44 are quite safe, humble pie


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

I bought today - 1.2 billion in cash. Trading at 6b market cap, so you get a worldclass engineering firm with 20%+ ROE for less then 5b. This will be really cheap if the economy continues to recover. 

Lets just hope there is no accounting fraud or anything ultra fishy.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

riseofamillionaire said:


> I bought today - 1.2 billion in cash


Wow, you are rich...what are you doing here


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

riseofamillionaire said:


> I
> 
> Lets just hope there is no accounting fraud or anything ultra fishy.


Lets just hope the RCMP raided their office building to make sure their batteries are still good in their smoke detectors.


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

HaroldCrump said:


> Wow, you are rich...what are you doing here


hahah i wish


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

daddybigbucks said:


> Lets just hope the RCMP raided their office building to make sure their batteries are still good in their smoke detectors.


Could be just to collect evidence for the libya irregularities. 56 million in improper payments is nothing. My guess is in a couple months they get sued and they settle for a couple hundred million, which would be a pleasant surprise to the market. Right now we just don't know. That uncertainty is making the stock very cheap - classic turnaround play. If there are no more surprises, the stock should eventually bounce back in the long term. Who knows tho...


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## dotnet_nerd (Jul 1, 2009)

SNC just spiked sharply higher. 

What happened, I don't see anything on the wires.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Riadh Ben Aissa, former head of global construction was arrested in Switzerland.

This is the guy that was in charge of the missing money from the Libya job.

It sounds like he is being accused of money laundering in North Africa.

This is bad news for SNC Lavalin and the world will being to look down on them for inappropriate monitoring of funds being spent. 

This could not only damage the stock price but could actually damage the company.

Those of you who are still long - I wish you luck.

Those of you who want to wade in should wait for a bottom as this one may sink a bit more. The question is whether this is going to hurt them from getting contracts in the future. I hope not as they are a powerhouse and a major leader in Canadian engineering and it would be such a travesty if they were materailly affected by the actions of one man's actions. However, it becomes more obvious now why the CEO had to go and why the CFO had such issue with what was going on with the funds. It'll be interesting to see how much money was pilfered over the years as he has been working at SNC since 1985 - 27 years.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

No/limited reaction to the stock price, so far.
Seems to be down just 1% and a bit


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

A positive amist the negativity... AltaLink (a division of SNC Lavalin) profits increase 30% on strong demand

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Transmission+builds+power+AltaLink+profits/6532700/story.html


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## dotnet_nerd (Jul 1, 2009)

It's alive!!

I know CC said "there's never just one cockroach", but here's hoping for more positive days like this


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

With all the bad news in the last 6 months, have to believe the bottom is in. Way of least resistance is up. Still long.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I bought in last week after we got the dump and washout from all the bad news not to long ago. I figure we have had enough for now and all the sellers since the huge dump last year are gone and many of the tax loss sellers as well.


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

Investigations over Lybia, in Switzerland, Quebec, and now talk of corruption in Bangladesh from this company. I bought it on the drop back in March and sold it this week for a 5% return. Too risky to hold IMO as the corruption seems like a widespread problem.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

is there something new in the bangladesh story ? 

it was already news when you bought the stock way back last march. You've held the stock through fire & brimstone. No point getting stoked about it now imho ...


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

Their latest results look decent, and the company is increasing its dividend by 4 cents. Is it a good time to buy on this pullback? I feel most of the corruption scandal is priced into the stock by now..... What do you guys think?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i was buying right after the scandal broke, in the $37 range. While others were fretting about cockroaches. I would buy more but it just keeps powering up.

an alternative for those who feel they've been left behind in the dust is to sell puts. Right now i'm long 500 shares, short 5 puts, short sep 48 calls.

i would imagine there is not a single large infrastructure company anywhere in north america that is not profoundly tainted with bribery & corruption. SNC's fault was to do it so extravagantly, so colourfully, so flambuoyantly. There may have been others involved. I was underwhelmed by that canadian ambassador to libya, with her husband on the SNC payroll in connection with construction of the new libyan prison. I'm wondering who on the new Mcgill health centre board should have had suspicions long ago, but didn't.


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

Still holding here, bought around 37. They should benefit from favorable comparisons in 2013. Planning to hold for the LT.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

what with selling strangles & all on SNC it's been a fine investment since the scandal broke.

my mail says their AGM is being held at the Palais des Congrès early in may. With that size of a hall, the expected turnout must be huge. Who knew?

if it's a gorgeous sunny day i might drop in. The idea would be to sniff their psychosocial profiles, how are they going to behave in the future? what does one imagine they might be capable of?

certainly not to hear the stale old financial reports or vote my paltry shares. I'm thinking they might be an interesting company to sniff ...


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

SNC is getting beaten up. It's hitting 52 week lows the past couple days. On valuation basis alone, this stock is trading rather cheaply. I've watched this company on and off for couple years, but haven't pulled the trigger. What are people's thoughts on this company?


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## oob (Apr 4, 2011)

Just announced the sale of their 407 stake. that should be a hotly contested asset and free up some cash.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

there's another thread nearby (Easy Buys i believe) where folks are discussing whether any new conviction for bribery on SNC's part could result in 10 years banning from projects by the federal government, following existing canadian anti-corruption regulations.

in 2013, the World Bank dropped SNC from its list of approved infrastructure contractors due to ongoing legal charges. To the best of my knowledge canadian federal & provincial governments have not breathed a similar word.

it was a TD Securities analyst who speculated recently that federal laws *could* result in SNC's being barred from govt infrastructure projects, if charged & convicted.

http://business.financialpost.com/2...-government-contract-bidding/?__lsa=3dfd-0f98

other, more anonymous voices are whispering the same concern, including one undisclosed source that says SNC Lavalin has already developed a Plan B for moving its headquarters overseas, to a foreign jurisdiction.

would a canadian ban affect this multinational's bottom line? would the federal government still go for the jugular after all these years since the SNC/libya scandal? has not the company taken pains to scrupulously clean up its act? is some mammoth institutional investor seeking to manipulate SNC's share price by encouraging rumours for dodgy reasons?

a few days ago SNC guided to 2015 earnings in the 1.30-1.60 range, far below analysts' expectations. SNC shares plunged acordingly to 2-year lows.

all canadian infrastructure companies have fared poorly in recent months. Bird, Aecon, WPS (formerly genivar), SNC, Jacobs Engineering in the US - all are down from a year ago, some by 50%.

we know what will perk them up. It's not happening yet. There's no sign of recovery yet in metals, oil, resource stocks generally or the global economy.

SNC has decent options, not too bad of a dividend. I bought a few more shares this past week.


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## HowIsMyFinancial (May 18, 2011)

SNC doing pretty well lately ... thoughts on it? Those who are holding SNC, what's your exit point?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

It looks like SNC sharply dropped 28% on January 28 after reducing profit forecasts and talking about trouble with business in Saudi Arabia, related to diplomatic tensions.

Is anyone watching this? The stock now shows a negative return over the last 5 years.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Renewed interest in the whole corruption angle...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/snc-lavalin-ceo-guilty-fraud-pierre-duhaime-1.5001839


> Former SNC-Lavalin CEO pleads guilty in superhospital fraud case


I suspect that, worldwide, the large infrastructure engineering business is, in fact, pretty corrupt. SNC winds up super-handcuffed as regards competing for business in India, Africa, Mideast, South America and Eastern Europe and will not get any work there. They will get business in Canada, particularly in Quebec on the "buy local" sentiment, but internationally they will have trouble competing with businesses that have a more prosperous local market.


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## milhouse (Nov 16, 2016)

I hold a few shares as a bit of a speculative investment from a few years back and probably should have taken the profit when it was in the high 50's. 

They've got number of challenges right now. I believe they still have the ambiguity of what penalties will be applied to the company due to the corruption case. And now they have the O&G write-down, issues with some mining projects, and risk to their business activities in Saudi Arabia due to the political stuff. 

Personally, I think the shares are oversold. They need to get over a few of these humps. I think they have enough projects in their backlog to keep them busy in the near future still. And they have a prime asset in Ontario’s 407 toll road. That said, once the shares recover to a reasonable level, I'll probably take my profits. They have a modest dividend that they typically raise annually but I'm not holding my breath for an increase this year.


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## yyz (Aug 11, 2013)

They only own a 1/6 share of the 407


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## milhouse (Nov 16, 2016)

Sorry, I should have been more precise in saying they have a share in the ownership of the 407 which is a prime asset for them. However, even their 1/6 stake has been valued at _potentially _over $2B and generates a lot of cash flow for them.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

gardner said:


> Renewed interest in the whole corruption angle...
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/snc-lavalin-ceo-guilty-fraud-pierre-duhaime-1.5001839
> 
> 
> I suspect that, worldwide, the large infrastructure engineering business is, in fact, pretty corrupt. SNC winds up super-handcuffed as regards competing for business in India, Africa, Mideast, South America and Eastern Europe and will not get any work there. They will get business in Canada, particularly in Quebec on the "buy local" sentiment, but internationally they will have trouble competing with businesses that have a more prosperous local market.





gardner i do beg to differ & would like to say that the above post is years out of date. Duhaime's case is being heard now for actions he undertook six or more long years ago. This particular case has little or nothing to do with the pair of blows that hammered SNC lavalin last couple of months.

company had reverse engineered itself six years ago. Fired corrupt executives. Brought in ethics specialist from the US. Hired all new. Companly boasts a spotless CEO at present, a scottish engineer w sterling reputation.

company is landing & executing contracts all over the world. In the very countries gardner names where he - inaccurately - claims that SNC "will not get any work there."

ironically - contrary to what gardner claims - quebec is the one locale where SNC is not likely to attract new business, due to the legacy of the montreal superhospital scandal. Local megastructures are more likely to hire SNC's rival WSP. My own muni hired WSP when it set out recently to build a new sports arena with some tricky engineering features.

SNC's current hard times are caused by two precise events. In late 2018, the gummint ruled that SNC will have to stand trial for certain conduct by corrupt executives nearly a decade ago. Company & observers had expected that, because the company had purged & re-invented itself, it would merely be expected to pay a healthy fine. Co & observers were not expecting a full hearing & trial, however trial is what the courts ordered. SNC's share price dropped from high 50s into mid 40s.

a 2nd blow occurred last week, when SNC pre-called its upcoming february earnings announcement with 2 warnings. Earnings TBA will be positive but future earnings will be less than expected due to a shutdown in saudi business, which in turn is due to the fact that the kingdom of SA has banned new business contracts with canadian firms for political reasons. Saudi business has traditionally constituted roughly 10% of SNC revenues, so the loss is palpable but does not spell doom.

concomitantly SNC announced a $1.24 billion dollar writedown stemming from an unnamed mining project, which is thought by analysts to be a recent project located in south america. SNC hinted that it could mitigate some of the losses & presumably will divulge more info at the upcoming conference.

majority shareholder Caisse du depot du quebec has said it's continuing to hold its full position in SNC. I don't know what the CPPIB is doing but find it hard to imagine they would bolt like teenagers.

it's been tough news recently for SNC but this is a tough company. 


.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Story in the National Post, dated February 7 night

Billions at stake for SNC-Lavalin — corruption conviction would bar firm from federal contracts for 10 year



> But financial analysts and legal experts say that a bribery and fraud conviction against the company would bar it from bidding on any federal contracts for 10 years, and would even allow federal authorities to cancel the company’s current infrastructure contracts, if deemed necessary.


Ouch.



humble_pie said:


> it's been tough news recently for SNC but this is a tough company.


And a tough stock to make money on!


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

Right. Tough company to make money on, especially when purchased about 20 years ago under $4. Someone here often says stocks are for the long term and are unreliable short term. Seems to me SNC has trounced the TSX over 2 decades. Is that not the interesting thing here?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

> But financial analysts and legal experts say that a bribery and fraud conviction against the company would bar it from bidding on any federal contracts for 10 years, and would even allow federal authorities to cancel the company’s current infrastructure contracts, if deemed necessary.




SNC doesn't need canadian contracts. The above is standard natPost anti-liberal rhetoric wrought up to a frenzied level.

last week SNC announced new european HQ in london england. That london HQ alone employs 1200 people. SNC is a multinational engineering infrastructure specialist with offices, contracts & operations on 5 continents.

in china for example it was SNC that built the astonishing trans-himalaya railway from china to tibet, an engineering feat many had believed was impossible.

try though andrew scheer might, it's unlikely that he'll be able to destroy either SNC or justin trudeau over the libya detail. Still, the media drama to come is going to be lively, journos do love a ripping good story ...

.


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## Numbersman61 (Jan 26, 2015)

Interesting how Justin Trudeau answered questions regarding rumored pressure from PMO to former Justice Minister on prosecution of SNC. His carefully crafted answers indicates there is some truth to Globe and Mail story.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

it isn’t just the post pie, the globe is all over this 
wilson-raybould has been dropping hints for some time according to the story i read
a lovely diversion before the election


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

fatcat said:


> it isn’t just the post pie, the globe is all over this



but where is the globe saying that existing canadian contracts w SNC could or should be cancelled, the way the natPost is saying. IMHO the natPost is going too far.

in the kingdom of SA, the saudi gummint has clarified that it's only *new* canadian contracts that are to be banned. All contracts operating at the time the crown prince's edict was issued will continue to operate.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> but where is the globe saying that existing canadian contracts w SNC could or should be cancelled, the way the natPost is saying. IMHO the natPost is going too far.
> 
> in the kingdom of SA, the saudi gummint has clarified that it's only *new* canadian contracts that are to be banned. All contracts operating at the time the crown prince's edict was issued will continue to operate.


i have always been under the impression that wilson-raybould was one if the golden girls of the trudeau government 

and she has now been thrown under the bus and landed in veterans affairs which is not exactly a promotion 

and the things she seems to be saying in speeches combined with trudeau’s carefully worded denials makes me (and a lot of other people) wonder what is up ... she seems to be telegraphing that the pmo has demoted her because she wouldn’t play ball

couldn’t find the story about saudi contracts and not sure how that relates to the current story


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

fatcat said:


> couldn’t find the story about saudi contracts and not sure how that relates to the current story



all knowledgeable remarks concerning SNC's long-established business with saudi arabia are integral to this thread.

this is the SNC Lavalin thread. What is irrelevant in this thread are remarks regarding the political career of jody wilson-raybould.

ms wilson-raybould is & will forever remain a leading cabinet minister & an important canadian politician, if she chooses to stay in politics. Her role in SNC's story is marginal & peripheral.

what is happening is that extremist parties are using this twist in SNC's story to attack authority figures such as the elected prime minister yet one more familiar time.

let us keep to the SNC Lavalin story. Currently it's an important investment narrative. Evidently our honourable feline member does not understand that the ongoing SNC/saudi arabia/crown prince MBS/human rights political situation is an issue of critical importance in any SNC investment discussion.

i am left wondering whether our honourable feline presently owns, or has ever owned, any interest whatsoever in publicly traded SNC shares. After all, he is one who likes to opine loudly on Apple as an investment, while frequently also posting that he has never owned any AAPL shares ... each:

re SNC's long-standing business undertakings in saudi arabia, from post # 66 upthread:



> a 2nd blow occurred last week, when SNC pre-called its upcoming february earnings announcement with 2 warnings. Earnings TBA will be positive but future earnings will be less than expected due to a shutdown in saudi business, which in turn is due to the fact that the kingdom of SA has banned new business contracts with canadian firms for political reasons. Saudi business has traditionally constituted roughly 10% of SNC revenues, so the loss is palpable but does not spell doom.



.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> all knowledgeable remarks concerning SNC's long-established business with saudi arabia are integral to this thread.
> 
> this is the SNC Lavalin thread. What is irrelevant in this thread are remarks regarding the political career of jody wilson-raybould.
> 
> ...


sorry pie, i thought about establishing another thread but then saw the post referencing the pm’s current problems of perhaps trying to influence the attorney general by Numbersman61 upthread so naturally assumed that the conversation about that would carry on in this thread, but perhaps, as is so often the case, i am mistaken

i have never owned SNC and would never own them as they are outside my criteria for an equity, as is apple for direct ownership though i do indeed own a chunk of apple via QQQ and am most pleased to do so

i apologize deeply, am remorseful and full of shame for my transgressions, as ever you keep me on track and i thank you for your periodic scoldings which, frankly, much to my consternation, i am beginning to look forward to ... oh lord pie, what have you wrought ?


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## Numbersman61 (Jan 26, 2015)

My feelings are that SNC engaged in very serious illegal acts and should face the consequences which ultimately may end in its demise. The actions of the the PM and the Liberal Government show that they are prepared to protect a corrupt company which is headquartered in Quebec. Will SNC be able to survive if they are convicted? I doubt it. Will Justin be the PM after the next election? I doubt he will and the SNC affair will be part of the reason.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Numbersman61 said:


> SNC engaged in very serious illegal acts and should face the consequences which ultimately may end in its demise


Arguably it was a certain set of officers of the company that are the baddies, not the company as a whole. There are 1,000s of employees who just went about their jobs the whole time, totally on the up-and-up, who do not deserve to be punished.



> the PM and the Liberal Government show that they are prepared to protect a corrupt company which is headquartered in Quebec.


The fortunes of a tax-paying company and the careers of its tax-paying employees is a legitimate interest of any government. You can't fault the government for wanting to preserve it as a going concern versus having it hollowed out by a foreign company and having 1,000s of unemployed engineers drawing EI. 

The optics for the liberals are terrible, though, and I suspect they will have to throw the book at them and we'll see Lavalin's burnt out husk sold off within a year. If the liberals do something to block prosecution, I agree, they will not survive it. If I didn't think Scheer was an idiot, I would probably cheer the prospect. Ether way, I have popcorn on hand.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

gardner said:


> Arguably it was a certain set of officers of the company that are the baddies, not the company as a whole. There are 1,000s of employees who just went about their jobs the whole time, totally on the up-and-up, who do not deserve to be punished.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


as has been pointed out by many commentators in various papers, there is terrific moral hazard in the pmo trying to put pressure on the snc-lavalin prosecution at the same time we are trying to fly the flag of the rule-of-law in the very difficult case of mrs. meng ... if this story about snc proves to be true, he needs to go


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

When our government makes moves to apparently support a company, I wonder why it would not be relevant to that company stock.

I have never held SNC nor BBD because of the political risk.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

my goodness. Are the numerous hate-Quebecers - so numerous in this forum, which predominantly consists of westerners as the moderator keeps reminding us - are the hate-quebecers on here so naiive that they believe a prime minister is not supposed to voice any opinion about any important issue facing his nation, to his own cabinet members, in caucus?

by the same logic, then, is rachel notley not supposed to have any opinion about the beleaguered alberta oil industry, which has peppered western canada with abandoned leaking oil wells for more than half a century ... another scandal story which the globe has dug up & aired recently? of course ms notley has an opinion. Of course her opinion is strong. Of course she will stand up for jobs & progress in her province. There is not a single canadian who will not applaud her.

the SNC wrongdoings were more than a decade ago. The company was purged & re-engineered, has conducted itself spotlessly ever since. Company is prepared & ready to pay a high remediation fine. That same money will now have to be wasted on legal fees paid to already-super-rich toronto lawyers, instead of being paid outright to gummints who could use the windfall. This has to be one of the stupidest moves on record.

it totally baffles me that bloodthirsty westerners keep screaming to see SNC's severed head on a platter, as we note in some above posts. SNC Lavalin is not going to disappear. CEO Neil Bruce will simply move SNC's head office to london england. Canada will lose its premier, storybook engineering firm. The canadian economy will wimp down another huge notch. It is this scenario that the liberal cabinet is trying to prevent.

rotation of cabinet ministers, demoting cabinet ministers, has been neverending business in every single federal gummint since Confederation. Were westerners in this forum outraged when john mcCallum was recently booted out of the liberal cabinet into the ambassadorship to china? no they were not

were the same westerners equally outraged when stéphane dion was also booted out of the liberal cabinet into the ambassadorship to germany? no they were not

cabinet shuffling is routine. It's not a scandal. There were plenty news stories that ms wilson-raybould had other fractious issues inside the liberal cabinet well before the globe launched the latest chapter in SNC's story.


https://globalnews.ca/news/4943451/jody-wilson-raybould-place-in-liberals/


.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

hmmm, lots of huffing about hating quebec and rachael notley cheering her provinces prime industry but nothing about the central issue, which if true is no small thing and should bring the pm down if not the government 

the issue has zero to do with snc’s corruption and much more to do with the office of the prime of canada possibly exerting undue influence and even pressure on the attorney general to go easy on a favoured company which would legally, morally and ethically beyond the pale

smells like 4 day old fish, but maybe it’s actually fresh fish or a steaming dish of delicious quebec poutine 

should be easy to clear up, lets talk to the former ag under oath as well as the parties privy to convos in the pmo

then we can quickly and easily decide that there is nothing to see here and move on to big-hairs next screw up


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

fatcat said:


> hmmm, lots of huffing about hating quebec and rachael notley cheering her provinces prime industry but nothing about the central issue, which if true is no small thing and should bring the pm down if not the government



me i posted everything to the central issue. A prime minister will always communicate with his cabinet ministers. A prime minister has the right to shuffle his cabinet. 

there are GOMs in this supposedly financial forum who preside here mainly to rant at society in general. What's wrong with em now? because nowhere in this country does a single canadian believe that a prime minister is not supposed to communicate his political views to his own cabinet.

it takes a very out-of-touch GOM to pretend that an elected government should not govern

there is no hard evidence that the prime minister "pressured" anyone. To the contrary, canada recently adopted legislation - modelled on UK & american legislation - which permits a misbehaving company that has totally cleaned up its act to pay a remediation fine. AFAIK individuals who believe themselves to have been wronged by such a company in its previous incarnation are still free to file lawsuits, so payment of the fine does not estop corrective action by the company. But it does permit such company to concentrate its productive energies forward into the future, instead of being drained of energy by being dragged backwards.

let's not forget that it was our honourable feline friend who posted repeatedly, last summer, that he wanted toronto hero policeman Ken Lam fired & prosecuted because he had singlehandedly apprehended van killer alex minassian without firing a single shot. Lam's brave action was hailed by police chiefs all over north america, some of whom obtained the NY Times video to use as a training module

alone in the outpouring of praise, it was our feline friend who wanted to condemn, to fire, to punish & to harm toronto's hero cop.

there was no cmffer who supported fatcat's vengeful & punitive fantasies. Instead, the forum's resident weapons expert took pains to explain exactly how officer Lam had quickly perceived that minassian was unarmed, therefore the policeman could apprehend him without gunshot.







> the issue has zero to do with snc’s corruption and much more to do with the office of the prime of canada possibly exerting undue influence and even pressure on the attorney general to go easy on a favoured company which would legally, morally and ethically beyond the pale



oh for crying out loud .each: the above is a GOM entertaining himself with rants at windmills


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

fatcat said:


> the issue has [ ... ] to do with the office of the prime of canada possibly exerting undue influence and even pressure on the attorney general to go easy on a favoured company which would legally, morally and ethically beyond the pale


The AG is part of cabinet (and privy council) and I would be astonished if the PM and AG had not discussed in detail the possible ways to handle Lavalin and what scenarios would have what likely outcomes economically and politically. I would further be astonished if the PM had not expressed opinions about what would be preferable in this case. There is no problem with this at all, and discussions within cabinet are totally privileged anyway, so we'll never know.

There WOULD be a problem if the AG had in turn attempted to or succeeded in influencing the prosecutor's approach without transparently documenting the policy direction via the gazette. So far, no one is saying this happened, only darkly intimating via innuendo that this is what they are suspicious of. It's not the PM you need to ask about this, though.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> me i posted everything to the central issue. A prime minister will always communicate with his cabinet ministers. A prime minister has the right to shuffle his cabinet.
> 
> there are GOMs in this supposedly financial forum who preside here mainly to rant at society in general. What's wrong with em now? because nowhere in this country does a single canadian believe that a prime minister is not supposed to communicate his political views to his own cabinet.
> 
> ...


more half-baked pie ... plenty of personal insults and old grudges but nothing of substance ... what the f does a toronto policeman have to do with corruption in the office of the prime minister of canada ? ... you are foaming at the mouth pie ... your signal to noise ratio has reached epic levels of gibberish 

it should be easy to clear all this up and we can all go on our way, let the ag appear and be questioned as well as members of the pmo’s staff and we are done, fini ...


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

gardner said:


> The AG is part of cabinet (and privy council) and I would be astonished if the PM and AG had not discussed in detail the possible ways to handle Lavalin and what scenarios would have what likely outcomes economically and politically. I would further be astonished if the PM had not expressed opinions about what would be preferable in this case. There is no problem with this at all, and discussions within cabinet are totally privileged anyway, so we'll never know.
> 
> There WOULD be a problem if the AG had in turn attempted to or succeeded in influencing the prosecutor's approach without transparently documenting the policy direction via the gazette. So far, no one is saying this happened, only darkly intimating via innuendo that this is what they are suspicious of. It's not the PM you need to ask about this, though.


if it is all innuendo then waive privelege, allow the ag to be questioned, look at the relevant communications in the light of day and then we can all go home and the globe and mail will end up with egg all over their face if they have got it wrong


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

this is interesting, jody wilson rayboulds father seems to be providing some support to the globe and mail story by the following tweet in which he refers to her move to veterans affairs as a “demotion” and says she is more than willing to “defend” herself

lets us hope we get a full and fair inquiry on this story, the Liberals would be wise to go ahead and waive privelege otherwise they will be facing questions and a cloud of uncertainty right up to the election

(which wouldn’t bother me too much)


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

fatcat said:


> this is interesting, jody wilson rayboulds father seems to be providing some support to the globe and mail story by the following tweet in which he refers to her move to veterans affairs as a “demotion” and says she is more than willing to “defend” herself
> 
> lets us hope we get a full and fair inquiry on this story, the Liberals would be wise to go ahead and waive privelege otherwise they will be facing questions and a cloud of uncertainty right up to the election
> 
> (which wouldn’t bother me too much)


Good catch! Truth comes out in many ways. Suspicions confirmed.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

Now we see that the PMO is trying to influence the Military Vice-Admiral Mark Norman defense.
_
A pretrial hearing in the breach-of-trust case against Vice-Admiral Mark Norman took a sudden political turn Monday when the defence alleged that prosecutors have been talking trial strategy with the bureaucratic department that supports Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's office and the federal cabinet._

_That prompted defence counsel Christine Mainville to accuse the Prime Minister's Office of trying to direct the case._

ltr


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## Numbersman61 (Jan 26, 2015)

The latest in the SNC saga
Jody Wilson-Raybould resigns from cabinet after SNC-Lavalin allegations


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

this is why i am a religious man, prayer clearly works ... we only had smoke, now we have the fire and it remains to be seen how bright it burns ...


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## Numbersman61 (Jan 26, 2015)

“Mr. Trudeau had attempted Monday to play down the matter, telling journalists in Vancouver he had gone back to Ms. Wilson-Raybould and sought verification he had not directed her to abandon the SNC-Lavalin prosecution.

"She confirmed for me a conversation we had this fall where I told her directly that any decisions on matters involving the director of public prosecutions were hers alone," Mr. Trudeau said.

Mr. Trudeau said Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s continued membership in his cabinet as an indicator to Canadians that she is not unhappy with his government.

“Her presence in cabinet should actually speak for itself,” the Prime Minister had said Monday.”


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Numbersman61 said:


> “Mr. Trudeau had attempted Monday to play down the matter, telling journalists in Vancouver he had gone back to Ms. Wilson-Raybould and sought verification he had not directed her to abandon the SNC-Lavalin prosecution.
> 
> "She confirmed for me a conversation we had this fall where I told her directly that any decisions on matters involving the director of public prosecutions were hers alone," Mr. Trudeau said.
> 
> ...


yeah, once again i noted a very specific choice of words and phrasing “i told her directly” “any decisions were hers alone” ... he really is sounding like a guy speaking lawyerese

that she has retained an attorney is interesting and significant


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## twa2w (Mar 5, 2016)

humble_pie said:


> …... To the contrary, canada recently adopted legislation - modelled on UK & american legislation - which permits a misbehaving company that has totally cleaned up its act to pay a remediation



Perhaps you forget what company pushed for and lobbied hard for this legislation!!


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

gary mason in the globe and mail https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...signation-a-prime-ministers-dimming-fortunes/ quoting the pm from a recent interview 



> Interestingly, in our conversation, the Prime Minister bemoaned the “bombastic politics of blame” that he said were *perpetuating “the cycle of cynicism toward our institutions.” He said his job, as the country’s leader, is to “allay those anxieties.”*


really ? thanks so much for that .... 

you pass a law to tell the world how morally upright you are with regard to holding large corporations to account for their unethical behaviour and then you pass a second law to enable these very same companies to escape any serious repercussions for their unethical / criminal actions 

and then you lean on the justice minister to ensure that a favoured large corporate donor gets to get off relatively scot-free under the get-out-of-jail-free terms of the second law

and you are worried about the cycle of cynicism toward our institutions ? really ?

and you have to love the indigenous people’s prime minister being given the middle finger by his golden girl indigenous cabinet minister who just doesn’t want to play basketball (which i am pretty sure was invented by native people), this just gets better and better


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

imho the focus should be upon Kathleen Roussel, head of the public prosecution service of canada.

maitre Roussel has chosen to proceed with major litigation against 2 parties that will cost canadian taxpayers mega-millions of $$. Yet the circumstances in both cases are so flimsy that public prosecution at this point in time may be nothing more than hyper expensive showing-off by federally paid lawyers in the public prosecution service.

the case against vice admiral Mark Norman has no merit that any journalist has ever been able to dig up. All we know is that the vice admiral enjoyed a spotless career record; was deeply concerned about ongoing hardship suffered by the canadian navy due to lack of supply ships; favoured a retrofit vessel from the Davie shipyard because it would arrive years earlier than rival Irving shipyard could build a brand new ship; phoned a contact at Davie when it appeared the federal cabinet decision over which ship to choose was moving against Davie (ironically enough, in the end Ottawa chose the Davie retrofit, which vessel i believe is very close to delivery right now)

for his conscientious pains, the vice admiral was suspended from duty & charged with crimes that are serious enough to destroy his career for the rest of his life. 

the violence being done to admiral Norman is excessive. It reads like something that happened under josef stalin during the gulag years. Canadian taxpayers & voters should ask themselves why the Public Prosecutor is running this mega-million dollar case against vice admiral Norman. Does it have any purpose other than fattening the budget of the public prosecution service?

a parallel story is the potential trial of SNC Lavalin, again to be launched by the Public Prosecutor. There is legislation in place, based on existing identical legislation in the UK & in the US, which permits a company to re-engineer itself after wrongdoing. To purge out the employees who committed the long-ago wrongdoings. To deliberately implement a corporate culture of ethical behaviour. To financially remediate all hardships it might have caused. To then get on with its business in life.

applying the Remediation Agreement legislation to the SNC case is what should be happening. Bribes it paid to now-deceased moammar ghaddafi in libya decades ago are now ancient history. The company today has cleaned house from top to bottom & has already paid a high price in terms of lost business, unfavourable publicity, repayment of claims & increased cost of capital.

however, lawyers for SNC Lavalin say they have been given only one word by the Public Prosecutor as to why their application for relief under the remediation legislation was denied.

in one word, prosecutor Roussel is said to have informed SNC Lavalin that its application is "inappropriate."

just one word. Maitre Roussel is said to have given no legal reason. Just "inappropriate." As if she were discussing appropriate or inappropriate attire that one should wear to a cocktail party.

imho it's long past the hour to examine Kathleen Roussel's performance in office with a view to determining whether or not she is frivolously attempting to destroy canada's best-performing public servants & canada's best-performing publicly traded companies. This bailiwick falls directly under the attorney-general of canada.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

many ... many ... many ... words pie but nothing about the central issue 

and golly, perhaps snc-lavalin forgot to do the bathroom when they cleaned house because the rcmp in quebec thinks that snc-lavalin is still dirty:

*"high-level company officials were aware" of kickback payments made to the former head of Canada's Federal Bridge Corporation, Michel Fournier.
*
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/mont...r-investigation-from-rcmp-in-quebec-1.5016315

you're a good Liberal soldier pie, i admire that


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

When bribes are a part of a company culture, a complete change in management is needed. Otherwise the rot in the bathroom will eventually spoil the whole house!


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

the Liberals on the justice committee voted against questioning jody raybould and want to meet behind closed doors to "discuss" the matter ... sure

the Liberals are up to their old tricks, and it is fitting that lavalin is the company in question, both parties understand cover-ups and corruption very, very well

big-hair has made the calculation that they will succeed in rug sweeping and rug beating as they clean their house for the election

but, as the old internet saying goes "information wants to be free" and i hope in this case that somehow the truth will come out

if we are all blowing smoke and there is nothing to see here then hold hearings, let the relevant parties testify under oath and we can all go home and the Liberals will be vindicated, open the doors and let in some fresh air

lavalin have now had their bond rating downgraded to BBB- … hmmm


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

jody raybould retains an attorney to advise her on _what_ she can tell the public

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...ormer-supreme-court-justice-to-advise-her-on/




> Former attorney-general Jody Wilson-Raybould has taken the extraordinary step of announcing she has retained counsel to advise her on what she can say about the political firestorm that has engulfed her and her government.
> 
> 
> And not just any counsel. Her lawyer is Thomas Cromwell, who served on the Supreme Court of Canada from 2008 to 2016, where he was considered a leading light, strong in a wide range of areas, a heavy lifter.
> ...


what possible reason would a former attorney general need an attorney for if she wasn't sitting on something explosive, if there is really no substance to this story why is she acting the way she is ? ... it doesn't pass the smell test ... she would come forward and simply say "there is no substance to the globe and mail story" i am reasonably certain this wouldn't violate any privilege though perhaps our in-house counsel will advise on this


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

kcowan said:


> When bribes are a part of a company culture, a complete change in management is needed. Otherwise the rot in the bathroom will eventually spoil the whole house!



this ^^ is nonsense. Only a person with zero knowledge of SNC Lavalin could post something so inaccurate.

SNC re-engineered itself many years ago, fired the executives who were conducting the wrongdoings 10-20 years ago, hired a US corporate ethicist to help build a tight new ship, changed management completely, paid reparations, has carried on spotlessly ever since. 

parties attempting to claim that SNC engages in criminal activities today or at any time since the profound re-structuring are, themselves, displaying questionable behaviour; ie they are spreading defamation & slander.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

fatcat said:


> the rcmp in quebec thinks that snc-lavalin is still dirty




^^ not at all. Please read your own link. It says the mounties are searching for evidence from 2001-2003. That is 18 very long years ago.

bref, it's a fishing expedition. As is well known, SNC Lavalin outdid itself purging corruption years ago, hiring all new management with commitment to corporate ethics, re-building its global enterprise as a world class engineering infrastructure concern from the ground up.

it is *hyperbole* to pretend that the mounties are searching for evidence of current misdeeds. Calling SNC "still dirty" might even verge on libel. At the very least, morbid posters who have never owned SNC shares, who have zero knowledge of the company, who are posting falsehoods in this forum, should read their own linked material before misquoting it.


.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> ^^ not at all. Please read your own link. It says the mounties are searching for evidence from 2001-2003. That is 18 very long years ago.
> 
> bref, it's a fishing expedition. As is well known, SNC Lavalin outdid itself purging corruption years ago, hiring all new management with commitment to corporate ethics, re-building its global enterprise as a world class engineering infrastructure concern from the ground up.
> 
> it is *hyperbole* to pretend that the mounties are searching for evidence of current misdeeds. Calling SNC "still dirty" might even verge on libel. At the very least, morbid posters who have never owned SNC shares, who have zero knowledge of the company, who are posting falsehoods in this forum, should read their own linked material before misquoting it.


morbid ? i don't know pie, that seems a stretch ...



> characterized by or appealing to an abnormal and unhealthy interest in disturbing and unpleasant subjects, especially death and disease.
> "he had long held a morbid fascination with the horrors of contemporary warfare"
> 
> *synonyms:*ghoulish, macabre, unhealthy, gruesome, grisly, grotesque, ghastly, horrible, unwholesome, death-obsessed; informalsick
> "a morbid fascination with the horrors of contemporary warfare"


wordy, tendentious, fatuous, provocative, combative, quarrelsome, argumentative ... now these i can get behind ... but morbid ?

i don't think so pie, really, i just don't ... 

oh wait, lets not forget the schadenfreude, there is a lot of the schadenfreude

why does jody want a lawyer pie ? why not say "nothing to see here, the globe has it all wrong" ?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Hey pie
Why do the Liberals think they need special legislation?
Why have their bonds dropped to BBB-?

The only way SNC will emerge from under the cloud is for an open investigation that confirms your opinion. I hope it does. Montreal needs bridges!


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

globe has a piece this am on SNC as a speculative buy

i haven't read the piece & i'm not buying, but i can see some of the reasons why

company has a worldwide order backlog worth $14.9 billion
co booked nearly $2 billion in new orders in december/18 alone

lines of credit are intact & co has plenty of cash, says CEO neil bruce. SNC does not need to raise capital via new share or debt issue at this time. In fact, cash in the bank poses SNC's greatest risk at the moment, since it acts like a magnet to attract hostile takeover bids

co is fully prepared to fight canadian federal prosecution in a public trial, bruce said. Co expects this litigation to drag on for at least a decade, he added.

co is talking a lot about protecting its valuable employees from becoming disheartened by relentless opposition coming from certain vocal canadians. Co not saying much about the covert side of this protection plan though, which is moving certain strategic head office functions to its newly expanded european headquarters in london's docklands district.


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## yyz (Aug 11, 2013)

Sure and that's why they cut the dividend ..... lots o cash.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

CEO bruce mentioned recently that large reservoirs of cash are/were needed to 1) pay the remediation agreement monies to the government of canada if that possibility were to be open; & 2) pay excessive ongoing legal costs. Evidently $$ saved by cutting the dividend are earmarked for legal costs.

overall the company has gone into deep defensive survival mode, which is why the share price has not crashed into deep dumpster & why a few bold strategists are seeing a speculative buy at current levels.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Yet another dividend aristocrat that slashed its dividend. As recently as 2015 and 2016, SNC Lavalin was still a Dividend Aristocrat with a very long history of consecutive dividend increases. A few days ago, it cut its dividend for the first time in 27 years.
https://www.dividendearner.com/top-5-canadian-dividend-aristocrats/
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3801536-2016-canadian-dividend-aristocrats

Maybe one of our local dividend/DG investors can explain to me: so how do you decide when to get out of one of your dividend stocks? People keep posting here about retirement investing via a portfolio of good quality dividend stocks. Apparently we don't have to worry about share prices or market crashes because dividends continue even if share prices drop.

Except: sometimes great dividend stocks cut their dividends. And during a recession, many of them cut.

So let's say you were holding SNC in your dividend growth portfolio. What do you do now? Suddenly the share price matters again.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> globe has a piece this am on SNC as a speculative buy
> 
> i haven't read the piece & i'm not buying


I agree that it is highly speculative. I seriously doubt that it will go to zero. I doubt that they will move HQ because no other government would treat them the way the Trudeau Liberals are doing. God help us!


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

kcowan said:


> I agree that it is highly speculative. I seriously doubt that it will go to zero. I doubt that they will move HQ because no other government would treat them the way the Trudeau Liberals are doing. God help us!


I think SNC is risky, however it isn't going anywhere.
Bailing out businesses, particularly QC business is seen as a matter of political survival for the Liberals.

That's why they're willing to take all this heat for good SNC jobs to sell services (to Saudi Arabia), while threatening the Saudi Arms deal.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Yet another dividend aristocrat that slashed its dividend. As recently as 2015 and 2016, SNC Lavalin was still a Dividend Aristocrat with a very long history of consecutive dividend increases. A few days ago, it cut its dividend for the first time in 27 years.
> https://www.dividendearner.com/top-5-canadian-dividend-aristocrats/
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/3801536-2016-canadian-dividend-aristocrats
> 
> ...


SNC was never a great dividend stock. The yield was always very low, 2% or less. I have never found engineering and construction companies to be good investments; the margins are low, and even a single poorly performing contract can ruin an entire year of earnings. SNC's margins are no exception; in 2017, it was net income of $382M on revenue of $9.3B; only 4.1%. If they run over costs by 10% on one big project, they will earn nothing for a year.

Long term revenue streams and strong margin businesses with big structural moats make good dividend stocks. Look at railroads. No one is building anymore. Same with pipelines - all the protests are making pipes in the ground worth their weight in gold. To get pipeline capacity, you need investment-grade credit and multi-decade take-or-pay contracts. Utilities have regulated cash streams that also last decades - sometimes even 100 years. Those are businesses that have reliable dividends.

SNC, unfortunately, is in a high risk industry and normally trades at very high valuations, usually trailing P/Es approaching 25. Why SNC has a P/E multiple greater than companies with locked in multi-decade cash flows, I don't know. Not for me, I like to be compensated for risk.

If I owned SNC, I would have sold in 2012 when the corruption first came out. Sell first, ask questions later. I would have been initially wrong, but now the stock is lower than 2012. I would also sell now and not buy back unless I was confident there was no material impact to their ability to secure business. Sometimes, companies can lose contracts because of headline risk like they are experiencing, even if they are good companies.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

kcowan said:


> I doubt that they will move HQ because no other government would treat them the way the Trudeau Liberals are doing.




they are indeed moving some strategic HQ functions to london. The CEO himself probably maintains a pied-a-terre in london, could easily reside there de facto if not ex officio.

it took SNC a long time to persuade neil bruce to join after the 2015 corporate meltdown. He was a successful scottish engineer with sterling reputation, based in england, the world was his oyster. When head hunters first approached him regarding a broken engineering firm in icebound montreal, he was initially incredulous.

but engineers are renowned for their willingness to tackle & solve very difficult problems. Bruce came, he saw & eventually quebec conquered.

in language, bruce uses simple terms. He says that SNC personnel "have had enough" of the verbal abuse that keeps coming from some canadians, as can be witnessed here in cmf forum. A primary reason for moving some HQ functions to the Docklands is to keep up morale & maintain a healthy perspective on the rest of the world.

it's not a question of if or whether. In montreal, the hollowing out process has already begun. Speed was quietly stepped up as the wilson-raybould melodrama unfolded.


.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Yet another dividend aristocrat that slashed its dividend. As recently as 2015 and 2016, SNC Lavalin was still a Dividend Aristocrat with a very long history of consecutive dividend increases. A few days ago, it cut its dividend for the first time in 27 years.
> https://www.dividendearner.com/top-5-canadian-dividend-aristocrats/
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/3801536-2016-canadian-dividend-aristocrats
> 
> ...


i personally avoid cyclical stocks (with some exceptions) and they are a company i would never own but to your question, why would a failed dividend growth stock be any different from any other stock ?

what do you do when one of your holdings tanks ?

why do you assume dividend growth stocks are somehow in a different class ? ... you hold a portfolio of stocks and some of them are going to have problems, it happens to all investors not just dividend growth

what do you do when one of your stocks gets in trouble ?

no intelligent investor thinks dividend growth stocks are magic or are immune from problems


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

doctrine said:


> SNC, unfortunately, is in a high risk industry and normally trades at very high valuations, usually trailing P/Es approaching 25. Why SNC has a P/E multiple greater than companies with locked in multi-decade cash flows, I don't know. Not for me, I like to be compensated for risk.


I was the CEO of a company CDSL that was acquired by CGI in the 90s. Everyone was pleased because the shares of CGI were on an upward trajectory and Cooperators Insurance in Guelph cashed out handsomely. The management team in Montreal was highly regarded. CGI managed to avoid major scandals.


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

james4beach said:


> ... Maybe one of our local dividend/DG investors can explain to me: so how do you decide when to get out of one of your dividend stocks? People keep posting here about retirement investing via a portfolio of good quality dividend stocks. Apparently we don't have to worry about share prices or market crashes because dividends continue even if share prices drop.
> Except: sometimes great dividend stocks cut their dividends. And during a recession, many of them cut.
> So let's say you were holding SNC in your dividend growth portfolio. What do you do now? Suddenly the share price matters again.


I agree with fatcat - no different than any other nonperforming stock. Review and probably sell based on outlook and better alternatives. At least that's what I've done with the few that have cut dividends over the years. 

I have a confession though. My gut told me there might be a bounce in SNC today. I put in a limit order last nite near Friday's close. I thought I might make a few hundred bucks. Woke up today and sold it for a 5% gain and made more than a few hundred. I never do that sort of thing and will never buy SNC again. Plain-assed luck. I'd be red-faced if I'd been stuck with it. I need to read less news.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

My my my, the publicity on this company is priceless though not sure for the benefit of its shareholders. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-snc-lavalin-sues-former-ceo-over-hospital-bribery-scandal/

*SNC-Lavalin sues former CEO over hospital bribery scandal*


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## can_84 (Jul 2, 2011)

*Would you buy SNC-Lavalin right now?*

I am considering SNC Lavalin as I feel this is a great time to buy in following Buffets advice of buying when there's blood on the street. 

I have not done allot of research and I don't intend to as based on what I have learned they have great assets but currently are experiencing political problems with bribes, Saudis hating on Canada, and Justine's handling of the investigations. To me this is all side noise that will disappear in a year or 2. 

What are your thoughts?


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

can_84 said:


> I am considering SNC Lavalin as I feel this is a great time to buy in following Buffets advice of buying when *there's blood on the street. *


 ... there is? 



> I have not done allot of research and I don't intend to as based on what I have learned they have great assets but currently are experiencing political problems with bribes, Saudis hating on Canada, and Justine's handling of the investigations. *To me this is all side noise that will disappear in a year or 2.*


 ... it will? So you figured this stock is on "sale" now? Gotta back up the truck ... no, wait, ship-containers may be more appropriate.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

can_84 said:


> I am considering SNC Lavalin as I feel this is a great time to buy in following Buffets advice of buying when there's blood on the street.
> 
> I have not done allot of research and I don't intend to as based on what I have learned they have great assets but currently are experiencing political problems with bribes, Saudis hating on Canada, and Justine's handling of the investigations. To me this is all side noise that will disappear in a year or 2.
> 
> What are your thoughts?


There isn't blood in the streets, it's spurting out of SNC's torso.
That being said, I think the new management is committed to cleaning things up. Globally a lot of the bribing and corruption has been normal in many jurisdictions, and times are changing. While Team Trudeau mismanaged this affair and made it political, I think it should have faded away, and still might.

However why SNC? Aren't there better risk adjusted returns out there?
SNC is a risky play, simply because we don't know how it will play out.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

MrMatt said:


> However why SNC? Aren't there better risk adjusted returns out there?
> SNC is a risky play, simply because we don't know how it will play out.


If they sell their good-performing assets like ETR 407, their financials will be weaker even though their debt will be less.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

If SNC Lavalin and other international infrastructure companies face criminal charges for bribery to foreign officials, they might as well shrink the company and stay within Canada.

They won't be able to compete with similar corporations headquartered in other countries who don't care much about bribery to foreigners. 

Those country's penalties might be a small fine or slap on the wrist, but certainly not criminal charges.

Canadians should wake up and smell the corruption. If you want to compete in the international space you have to play the rules..........their rules not ours.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

SNC is not an investment situation for the faint of heart, is highly risky ground for any amateur speculator to tread upon. In SNC zone today, research is absolutely crucial.

SNC was intending to sell only 10% of its holding in toll highway 407. The purpose of the sale was to raise cash to pay off its debt to the caisse de depot du quebec, thus freeing SNC from its obligation to retain its head office in canada & enabling this company to move HQ to britain or the US.

however a primary shareholder has legally blocked the sale, so it appears unlikely to succeed (SNC will have to forfeit a huge deal-breaker fee to its would-be buyer though.)

independently of the political goings-on, SNC is passing through a time of very poor financial performance (it never rains but it pours.) The company has exited seeking new projects in non-developed countries, will concentrate upon contracts in europe & north america. The financial setbacks are so serious that a few shareholder/insiders are at least mentioning, if not calling for, a resignation of the present CEO and/or the chairman of the board.

but the biggest news of all is that SNC may be about to break itself up. Current CEO neil bruce believes that the operating divisions are worth more than a united SNC Lavalin at the present time. For example, bruce has stated that british subsidiary Atkins, all by itself, is worth more than the entire market capitalization of SNC on the TSX today, if SNC were to break up.

the company disclosed this possible breakup to the globe & mail a number of months ago. Very recently, SNC announced that it has struck a committee to formally investigate breakup as a viable option.

in short, deep pockets with high risk tolerance might be willing to play in the SNC lavalin park, but casual investors need to carry out serious research.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

It seems to be a rock solid sale instead of one that "appears unlikely to succeed".



> Regardless of how a judge rules, the company said all the Highway 407 shareholders have agreed that *SNC be allowed to sell the stake on the same terms as the original sales agreement it announced in early April and for the same proceeds. It only remains to be determined which shareholder will get SNC’s stake*.
> 
> “Cash is going to come in the door regardless” of the delay ....


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/bus...-sale-hits-snag-as-partners-fight-over-stake/
https://business.financialpost.com/...ies-as-snc-lavalin-terminates-deal-with-omers


It's a shame to lose the $81.3 million but it seem weird to proceed with OMERs without getting CPP to waive their first right of refusal (FROR), which SNC is not contesting. Another option would have been to make the OMERs breakup fee void for a FROR. The Cintra FROR is what's going before the courts as SNC does not agree with Cintra's argument that OMERs is a competitor, opening the door to a Cintra FROR.


Basically what SNC shareholders can possibly complain about is the $81.3 million and the delay as the $3.25 billion is still the price agreed on. 
That's what, a loss of 2.5% on the overall deal? 

If CPP was offering anything at or more that 2.5% less than OMERs price then even with the loss, SNC is coming out at par or possibly ahead.


It seems at least one analyst was talking about a breakup back in Oct 2018.
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/is-there-value-amid-the-uncertainty-facing-snc-lavalin

Plan B was mentioned to institutional investor this year.
https://business.financialpost.com/...pany-break-up-at-private-shareholder-luncheon


Some of the drop does seem to make sense, according to multiyear analysis.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/bus...-engineering-and-construction-business-might/



Definitely something for an aggressive investor instead of a casual one. 


Cheers


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

Had similar thoughts. Why the hell would management structure a deal with an $81 million break fee without addressing the strong possibility of an existing ROFR being exercised?
Fire them all. Not a company I'd put any money into.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

As I say ... if CPP was giving a "take it or leave it" offer, going to OMERs might have increased SNC Lavin's net take.
Without details, it does appear to be a bad move to lose the fee.


Cheers


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

*MONTREAL
PUBLISHED MAY 29, 2019*

*Court rules SNC-Lavalin must stand trial on bribery, fraud charges*

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-court-rules-snc-lavalin-must-stand-trial-on-bribery-fraud-charges/#comments



> ...The decision was expected by both the market and legal experts amid a decline in SNC-Lavalin shares in recent days. The stock had fallen in seven of the last 10 trading sessions to Wednesday morning and is now changing hands at $24.35 per share, roughly half the price it was in October.
> 
> .. SNC-Lavalin had sought to negotiate a settlement called a deferred prosecution agreement with federal prosecutors. The system, which is widely used in other countries like the United States, seeks to punish a company with fines and other penalties while sparing its innocent stakeholders. Since it announced in October that the effort failed, SNC-Lavalin has lost some $2.2-billion in market value. ...



Anyone brave enough to pick up some?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Not a chance. Sometimes a damaged company is terminal, and the only 'luck' will be an uplift from being acquired.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

ian edwards named CEO of SNC, replacing neil bruce who has already sold his montreal house & moved (mostly) to london

one can detect the long arm of minority shareholder stephen jarislowsky here. Famously feisty billionnaire jarislowsky - founder of investment counsel jarislowsky fraser - now in his late 80s if not his early 90s - has recently spoken out vehemently against the sale of part of SNC's holding in ontario toll road 407.

company now into examining its breakup options. Shares perked up yesterday as edwards took over.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

SNC fell another 33% since the last post ^ in mid June, recently cutting their dividend by 80%.

Amazing that SNC was a Dividend Aristocrat at the start of this year. Now they're more like a Dividend Vagabond.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Didn't know it was a Dividend Aristocrat ... scary. Maybe that Aristocrat labelling needs to be changed.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Didn't know it was a Dividend Aristocrat ... scary. Maybe that Aristocrat labelling needs to be changed.


The Canadian definition is as weak as chicken broth. See the criteria here https://www.dividendearner.com/canadian-dividend-aristocrats/ The current (July) list has 82 Canadian companies. I wouldn't own even half of them.


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

This one might get my portfolio YTD into the black if they ever lift the trading suspension.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

it's over. The SNC Lavalin trial will not proceed. The company will pay $280 million, which is exactly what SNC has been offering to pay, has been trying to pay, for years & years & years & years.

the company cleaned up its act decades ago. The company is no longer guilty. All employees involved in corruption cases were fired decades ago. By now, all have either died or else been brought to trial. All SNC ever wanted to do for the past 4-5 years was to make amends, pay an enormous fine & move on with its unique global engineering business.

justin trudeau plus the entire cabinet, with the sole exception of the increasingly eccentric jody wilson-raybould, understood this very well.

it would have been so much more profitable & so much more efficient for the federal treasury to have accepted the $280 million last year, as per the deferred prosecution agreement legislation. At the very latest, those fines should have been accepted by early september 2019.

that was the moment, however, when something went extraordinarily wrong in the mind of then-attorney-general wilson-raybould. For some reason she decided that she possessed the unique powers of a supra-dictator, someone far above even a prime minister.

fortunately the resulting hysterics are over now. I believe that wilson-raybould is the poitician whom history will eventually judge harshly, not justin trudeau. Wilson-raybould literally attempted to destroy the government to which she had sworn a profound oath of allegiance in 2015.

it's interesting to note that no other indigenous member of parliament - not one single aboriginal MP - followed wilson-raybould on her tempestuous rampage out of the liberal party.


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## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

I have worked with these guys on a JV. They deliver infrastructure professional design services. The market is not going to go way. 
Construction arm was a bit of a looser value prospect.

When the **** hit the fan and the div got cut, I was in at $37. 
Yes, too soon. But they will come back. 

Original thesis on the buy was that they had surpassed their break up value.


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