# Anyone actually think Greece will be able to continue their debt payments this summer



## supperfly17

So much talk about this. How will if affect the markets? They owe a total of 350 billion euros. They are barely making payments now, and
in June, July, and August they will have to pay a total of ~16.5 billion euros to its creditors, IMF, and ECB. 
What will happen? They just delayed tomorrows debt payment. I doubt more austerity measures will help/fix anything.


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## dogcom

Greece cannot pay its debt and the world can't afford not to pay it for them in some way, is the way I see it. The IMF and austerity has been a complete failure and has made the situation in Greece much worse then when this thing started.

Also if Greece falls into the hands of China and Russia that will be a big hit to the west and NATO and a big win for China and Russia putting a nice foothold into Europe.


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## carverman

Maybe Greece should try crowdfunding in a big way...or start selling some of their antiquities, might be able to raise a few million that way.


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## mrPPincer

Damn shame.. sounds like they might be losing their marbles down there :grey:


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## gibor365

carverman said:


> Maybe Greece should try crowdfunding in a big way...or start selling some of their antiquities, might be able to raise a few million that way.


They can sell islands ... they have too many


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## carverman

gibor said:


> They can sell islands ... they have too many


Yes, those Greek islands could fetch a fortune on todays real estate market. I'm sure Putin would love to put a bid in. 
Greece has an extremely large number of islands, with estimates ranging from somewhere around 1,200 to 6,000, depending on the minimum size to take into account. 
The number of inhabited islands is variously cited as between 166 and 227.

Ok, so a great percentage of their islands are even inhabited, so they wouldn't miss most of them. 1000 to 6,000 that's a lot more than our Thousand Islands
on the St. Lawrence. There's probably billlions more that they could get for those islands...why do they need so many? 

Then what else...goat cheese?


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## Davis

The biggest problem is that the Germans are demanding that the Greeks repay their debts in euros instead of gyros....


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## sags

A "strategic default" is what Greece needs to contemplate. Strictly a business decision...........nothing personal.


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## gibor365

Davis said:


> The biggest problem is that the Germans are demanding that the Greeks repay their debts in euros instead of gyros....


I think Germans would like to get repayments in "islands" 



> I'm sure Putin would love to put a bid in.


 I'm sure that not only Putin  
If Iran will make a bid, US will "loan" Greece $$$ indefinetely with 0%


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## humble_pie

mrPPincer said:


> Damn shame.. sounds like they might be losing their marbles down there :grey:



truly funny joke, deserves to be seen to the max


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## carverman

Davis said:


> The biggest problem is that the Germans are demanding that the Greeks repay their debts in euros instead of gyros....


 :biggrin-new:I can see why too. I love those Gyros. There is a Greek restaurant near me that I frequent and buy those pocket sandwiches.
The guy that owns it is Muslim and runs a very nice eatin/takeout. Fixed his large screen TV for him, so I got a few for free.

Of course, he won't take Euros..preferring Canadian "Rasbuckniks"..Harper plastic money.


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## carverman

sags said:


> A "strategic default" is what Greece needs to contemplate. Strictly a business decision...........nothing personal.


That's another name for 'we got plenty of nuthin'.....


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## sags

Lol...........or "you'll get it when I get it".

The Greeks didn't pay their payment and said they will pay two combined payments at the end of the month...............sure they will.

They were talking on CNBC International last night. The Greeks will have the 1.6 Billion Euros, but will have decide between paying their lenders or paying their pensioners.

They won't have enough to pay both.


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## RBull

^think it's actually 4 payments into 1 at end of month not including short term Treasury Bills 5.2B. No matter really.

I'm inclined to agree with you....this is a classic stall tactic because they can't pull it all off. And this is of course only a baby step towards the whole repayment plan. 

Such a beautiful country, such an ugly mess. 

Perhaps this whole Greek disaster is forerunner of what could happen elsewhere as all over the world governments roll up enormous debts.


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## fraser

We will be there for the month of September. Mainland and the islands. We have not booked accommodation. It will be interesting to see the impact of this situation on tourism and on prices. Our one concern is the ability to get Euros from the ATM. Backup plan is to hop across to Turkey by ferry.


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## gibor365

> one concern is the ability to get Euros from the ATM. Backup plan is to hop across to Turkey by ferry.


 or maybe take ferry to Cyprus


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## blin10

There are two options:

1) EU will keep giving them money to repay their own debt (this can't go on forever) and with each year debt will get bigger and bigger
2) Greece defaults and leaves EU

I think it's best for the Greeks to go with option 2. Sure there will be a lot of problems with that, but it's far better for them in a long term.


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## RBull

fraser said:


> We will be there for the month of September. Mainland and the islands. We have not booked accommodation. It will be interesting to see the impact of this situation on tourism and on prices. Our one concern is the ability to get Euros from the ATM. Backup plan is to hop across to Turkey by ferry.


Sounds nice. We like Greece the short time we were there 8 months ago. Would like to hear all about the trip afterwards so we can consider something like that.


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## gibor365

To tel the truth , i wouldn't feel comfortable to go to Greece now... who know what kind of strikes and violent demostration gonna be ....


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## Rusty O'Toole

Are you kidding? They can't pay their day to day expenses. The government is running a deficit. They have to borrow the money to pay back what they owe, borrow more to pay the interest, and borrow some more to cover the current deficit. That is all they have done since they joined the Eurozone. They couldn't pay the money back if they wanted to. They don't have it, will never have it, and have no intention of ever paying back a single Euro.

The only way to keep the farce going is to "loan" them more money every few months. 

The alternative would be to admit the truth, that they will never pay back any of it and all Greek bonds are worthless. The day they do that, every central bank is in default and every country in Europe is ruined because they all invest in each other's bonds.

Bit of a sticky wicket what?


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## heyjude

They are talking to Putin. This is worrying. He is an opportunist.


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## gibor365

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Are you kidding? They can't pay their day to day expenses. The government is running a deficit. ...Bit of a sticky wicket what?



Really?! and how about "


> Greece is negotiating with Russia for the purchase of missiles for its S-300 anti-missile systems and for their maintenance


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/us-russia-nuclear-greece-missiles-idUSKBN0N62A720150415



> report from Russia’s Itar Tass news agency on the earlier phone conversaion between Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and Russian president Vladimir Putin:
> 
> [The two leaders] have discussed bilateral energy cooperation and Greece’s possible participation in the BRICS [development] bank by telephone on Friday.


http://www.theguardian.com/business...t-live-updates#block-55719e53e4b0f3282588b525


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## carverman

gibor said:


> Really?! and how about "
> 
> http://www.theguardian.com/business...t-live-updates#block-55719e53e4b0f3282588b525


For a country not able to make a e300 million payment, the coffers must be dry. What were they doing up to now?

And they want to discuss bilateral energy agreement with Putin? Sounds like a political facade for something else they got in mind...default on their debt and join Russia and part of Ukraine, to form a new strategic political alliance with Russia who will give them a few missiles for protection against whom?...Turkey? or the rest of the EU Community?

Euros replaced by Rubles..who's writing the next chapter in Greece's modern history? 

I guess the Greeks don't like to pay sales taxes or income taxes.


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## heyjude

carverman said:


> For a country not able to make a e300 million payment, the coffers must be dry. What were they doing up to now?
> 
> And they want to discuss bilateral energy agreement with Putin? Sounds like a political facade for something else they got in mind...default on their debt and join Russia and part of Ukraine, to form a new strategic political alliance with Russia who will give them a few missiles for protection against whom?...Turkey? or the rest of the EU Community?
> 
> Euros replaced by Rubles..who's writing the next chapter in Greece's modern history?
> 
> I guess the Greeks don't like to pay sales taxes or income taxes.


They are desperate. Joining Russia is one possibility. 

As for taxes, my Greek friends tell me there is a longstanding tradition in Greece of income tax evasion. Everybody except salaried government workers does it. Now those chickens are coming home to roost.


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## blin10

heyjude said:


> They are talking to Putin. This is worrying. He is an opportunist.


EU/US leadership is more worrying, like it or not but he is the most sane leader out there who has some sort of logic. Russia doesn't go around screwing up other countries around the world and they don't support islamic terrorists in the middle east like US. I'm sure you will reply with "but what about Ukraine? who is messing there?", whole thing started with US/EU backing armed take over of democratically elected president with $5Billion aid. Anyways I'm going off topic here.


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## gibor365

> a new strategic political alliance with Russia who will give them a few missiles for protection against whom?...


 Russia can give Greece cheap gas and oil, with same huge discount that they were giving to Ukraine before US/NATO driven putsch.



> he is the most sane leader out there who has some sort of logic.


 Exactly!



> whole thing started with US/EU backing armed take over of democratically elected president with $5Billion aid.


Just imagine Russia would do similar in Mexico 

Also, who knows, maybe Greece alone (or together with Russia) playng some kind of game , as they know very well that US/EU biggest nightmare if Greece makes strong alliance with Russia/Belorus/East Ukraine, plus they can attract other Ortodox countries like Serbia and Macedonia (who really hates US/NATO)


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## fraser

Russia is desperate to put a pipeline through Greece in order to enhance their access to European markets.

My guess is it is only a question of price and terms of payment.

No doubt many of those criminal Putin associates lost access to a pile of cash in Cyprus. I doubt very much if the agreement will include depositing one euro in the failing Greek banks. Though...it certainly looked good on them when the Cyprus banks did collapse.


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## carverman

blin10 said:


> EU/US leadership is more worrying, like it or not but he is the most sane leader out there who has some sort of logic. Russia doesn't go around screwing up other countries around the world and they don't support islamic terrorists in the middle east like US. I*'m sure you will reply with "but what about Ukraine? who is messing there*?", whole thing started with US/EU backing armed take over of democratically elected president with $5Billion aid. Anyways I'm going off topic here.


*Off topic:*
My understanding of the situation was that there was rampant corruption with Viktor Yanukovich..he led an opulent lifestyle better than some Saudi Kings, while the country was starving for bread and staples in some places and the old people were left with very little to live on.

Where does it start and where does it end? Greece is just a poster boy for a more underlying problem... what can happen when people don't pull together
in a democracy..what is it called ..plutocracy? Hmmm???


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## mrPPincer

From wikipedia:


> Plutocracy (from Greek πλοῦτος, ploutos, meaning "wealth", and κράτος, kratos, meaning "power, dominion, rule") or plutarchy, is a form of oligarchy and defines a society or a system ruled and dominated by the small minority of the wealthiest citizens.


Ironic then that big money funded a coup to take away the Ukraine's democratically elected leader, (btw opulence / corruption is no stranger to politians in western democracies either in case you hadn't noticed), one could even say as a result a puppet regime *for* the oligarchy was installed in his place.

It would have been much better imho to let the democratic process work to get rid of him if he was so corrupt.


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## blin10

carverman said:


> *Off topic:*
> My understanding of the situation was that there was rampant corruption with Viktor Yanukovich..he led an opulent lifestyle better than some Saudi Kings, while the country was starving for bread and staples in some places and the old people were left with very little to live on.


It doesn't matter how corrupt he was (and he indeed was corrupt and bad president) but that doesn't give a right for a group of people with weapons (backed by US/EU billions$) to overthrow him like that knowing perfectly well that it would lead to the conflict between east and west. Imagine if Canada had something similar going on and Russian officials would come to Ottawa and hand out cookies while people riot and kill RCMP officers, how would USA react? 

Bet you didn't know this fact: Yanukovich agreed to step down within few months and agreement was signed by opposition as well as some EU countries like Germany (there's a video of this), so WHY still overthrow him? everyone (with brains) knew that it would lead to bloodshed so what is the point of still overthrowing him? Whole point of Maidan was to get rid of oligarchs, but guess what, even more oligarchs are now in control (Poroshenko is an oligarch himself).


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## gibor365

blin10 said:


> Whole point of Maidan was to get rid of oligarchs, but guess what, even more oligarchs are now in control (Poroshenko is an oligarch himself).


Exactly!


> Poroshenko is casually described as a "disgraced oligarch" by the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst. Later that year, a cable from Deputy Chief of the U.S. Mission in Kiev Sheila Gwaltney mentions that "Poroshenko was tainted by credible corruption allegations.".....The bulk of the criticism appears to be related to Poroshenko's feud with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who accused him of corruption in 2005 over the privatization of state-owned firms. But both Poroshenko and Tymoshenko were then fired by President Viktor Yushchenko, and the Chocolate tycoon may have had the last laugh with this recent election


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...als-used-to-say-about-ukraines-new-president/


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## gibor365

> My understanding of the situation was that there was rampant corruption with Viktor Yanukovich..he led an opulent lifestyle better than some Saudi Kings, while the country was starving for bread and staples in some places and the old people were left with very little to live on.


Sometimes you surprised me! Any court proved that he was corrupt?! and as blin10 said, if Russia decides that Canadian government was corrupt, can they send undercovers to Ottawa and invest $5 bil to overthrow gobernment and set a nes one that will be US enemy and Rissia's friend?!


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## humble_pie

good article from the NY Times today digs into russia's growing role as financial underwriter of anti-US unrest, including rubles used to bribe europe's ultra rightwing parties. 

marine le pen got nearly $12 million from a Kremlin-linked bank for her krypto National Front party in france, says the times.

putin interests are best served by luring greece out of the EU, so russia is lobbying hard, says the times.

idk why russia wants a gas pipeline across greece, though. Are the carpathian alps too wild & high to run a pipeline over? how is russia going to get the gas to greece? roumania looks like a big obstacle. Perhaps shipping across the black sea to turkey?



http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/08/w...column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news


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## gibor365

> good article from the NY Times today digs into russia's growing role as financial underwriter of anti-US unrest, including rubles used to bribe europe's ultra rightwing parties.
> 
> marine le pen got nearly $12 million from a Kremlin-linked bank for her krypto National Front party in france, says the times.
> 
> putin interests are best served by luring greece out of the EU, so russia is lobbying hard, says the times.


Like NY Times can publish something different :stupid: 


> ultra rightwing parties.


 really?! and why they don't write that US/NATO spend billions to create coup that lead by neo-nazi Svoboda party with new fuhrer Oleh Tyahnybok?!
and that for more than a year US (and cuuntries US force to) is trying destabilize Russian economics?!


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## supperfly17

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/11/imf-walks-out-of-greece-bailout-talks

Things getting interesting.


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## humble_pie

idk, greece also announced it was leaving the talks, it looks like both sides raced to be the first to declare that *it* was leaving the collapsed brussels negotiations in a total snit each:

they all flew home to nyc & athens respectively this am. I imagine that in a few days they'll all quietly fly back to brussels again.


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## Rusty O'Toole

Graph of Greek revenues vs expenditures. They project a surplus next year. If this happens, it won't pay back any of the debt. It will only mean they are not borrowing more. Provided they have enough of a surplus to pay the interest, and don't fritter it away feeding children and old people (sarkylert).

I don't believe they will have a surplus, and if they do, they will find something better to do with it than pay off debt or even the interest.


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## humble_pie

now that athens/europe talks have broken down, tsipras will start a 2-day state visit to moscow this thursday. He'll meet with putin at least once before he returns to greece on saturday.

i cannot imagine proud greece dancing in lockstep with the russian bear. Nor can i imagine russia meekly handing over rubles/euros that will, in turn, simply get delivered to the IMF in 2 weeks' time. Perhaps tsipras' visit to moscow is a bluff, to obtain a best-russian-offer, then use it to force a better deal out of europe?

reportedly tsipras has been asking for forgiveness of greek debts from european lenders.


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## supperfly17

Russia doesnt have enough money to feed its people let alone lend money to anyone. What a sham. I hope they default.


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## humble_pie

supperfly17 said:


> Russia doesnt have enough money to feed its people let alone lend money to anyone



they don't have the money, but folks in the west are wondering how russia is managing to fund that big military buildup?

i saw a couple articles about russian bank sleights-of-hand ...


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## gibor365

> Perhaps tsipras' visit to moscow is a bluff, to obtain a best-russian-offer, then use it to force a better deal out of europe?


 This is how I buy AI packages 
I don't think Russia gonna give money to Greece, it's not CCCP who gave 5 bil$ every year ,.... 



> they don't have the money


Just check Forbes List of Russian people by net worth 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_people_by_net_worth and this is official stats 




> how russia is managing to fund that big military buildup?


 check , for example, T-50 vs F-35 ... looks like so far Russia leads in this competition and in 2016 will be the only country that has fifth-generation stealth fighter jet ... and as a LMT shareholder, I'm a bit worried


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## blin10

supperfly17 said:


> Russia doesnt have enough money to feed its people let alone lend money to anyone. What a sham. I hope they default.


you're just misinformed, with western media today i don't blame you


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## gibor365

blin10 said:


> you're just misinformed, with western media today i don't blame you


Current western media propoganda even more misinforming than during Cold war :stupid:


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## gibor365

As per International Monetary Fund statistics at April 2015, World's Richest Countries by 2015 GDP, Russia is on 6th place after China, India, US, Germany and Japan and this is up 12+% from 2008

http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/


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## supperfly17

blin10 said:


> you're just misinformed, with western media today i don't blame you


My uncle lives and works in St. Petersburg, and my grandfather used to own a restaurant in Sochi, I think I would have an idea of how it is to live there.


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## blin10

gibor said:


> Current western media propoganda even more misinforming than during Cold war :stupid:


yap, for some reason US is trying to make chaos everywhere. Iran bad one year and now signing agreements, betrayed Saudi Arabia, Betrayed Israel, supports terrorists in Syria, destroyed Iraq and now ISIS issue, more destruction in Libya and Yemen, supports armed coup in Ukraine blames Russia, trains Ukrainian Nazis, trying to destroy EU-Russia ties, poking China around, etc. I wonder what kind of idiots run US foreign affairs.


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## blin10

supperfly17 said:


> My uncle lives and works in St. Petersburg, and my grandfather used to own a restaurant in Sochi, I think I would have an idea of how it is to live there.


So your uncle lives in St. Peterburg, tells you how bad it is, so now Russia is a sham and you hope they default? awesome. You grandfather owned restaurant when? probably a long time ago in the 90's. I got some relatives there too, you're not the only one.


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## gibor365

supperfly17 said:


> My uncle lives and works in St. Petersburg, and my grandfather used to own a restaurant in Sochi, I think I would have an idea of how it is to live there.


and you want to tell that there is nothing to eat there?! Unbelievable! 



> I wonder what kind of idiots run US foreign affairs.


 very serious idiots :stupid:



> ...trying to destroy EU-Russia ties...


 and so far they succeed ... just read some articles that France and Italy are not interested in continuation of sanctions... they loosing billions ....
Canada on other hand can allow pro-US position , all trades with Russia ... Vodka Russian Standard (and btw now is more varietey than before) and some yummy food we buy in Highland Farm and Yummy Market... 

and on the other side


> Bombardier Inc. remains firmly committed to doing business in Russia and the latest round of economic sanctions imposed by Canada is not expected to damage relations with decision makers there, a company official says..... Russia remains a market that is key to our growth,”





> I got some relatives there too, you're not the only one.


 Exactly! As have a couple of dozens extended family in Siberia and about 50 contacts on odnoklassniki.ru


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## gibor365

Sometimes i thing that escalation of different conflicts is just US politics and they need it in order to exist.... imho, if ISIS won't be existed, US would create it :biggrin:


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## blin10

supperfly17 said:


> Russia doesnt have enough money to feed its people let alone lend money to anyone. What a sham. I hope they default.


another point I'd like to mention, does US have enough money to feed their people? apparently not, US is 20+TRILLION USD in debt (take a look here), and they're keep adding to it, if USD wasn't dominating currency, US would fall apart like a house of cards. US is pretty much a bankrupt country, that's why they're trying so hard to create all these problems. Here is another interesting chart https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt



gibor said:


> Sometimes i thing that escalation of different conflicts is just US politics and they need it in order to exist.... imho, if ISIS won't be existed, US would create it :biggrin:


that's 100%


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## supperfly17

blin10 said:


> So your uncle lives in St. Peterburg, tells you how bad it is, so now Russia is a sham and you hope they default? awesome. You grandfather owned restaurant when? probably a long time ago in the 90's. I got some relatives there too, you're not the only one.


I was talking about Greece defaulting, not Russia. Was replying to a quote. There is a reason I live in North America, im not a Russian nuthugger even though I have relatives there. If you think its better there and hate the US/Canada just move there.

Middle class in Russia is non existent. Moscow is somewhat immune, but even there its mostly the poor and super rich. 

Also when comparing military might whats the point both Us and Russia have nukes so we all die makes no difference.


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## gibor365

> If you think its better there and hate the US/Canada just move there.


 no one saying about hating US/Canada... critisizing current government positions is not meaning hate.




> Middle class in Russia is non existent


 where do you take this information from?! It's a nonsense!

P.S. there are still 47 million Americans living in poverty (on food stamps) — the highest number in two decades, according to the Census


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## gibor365

btw, As per CIA number,Population living below national poverty line (%)
United States 15.1 
Russia 13.1


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## RBull

^I am no statistician or economist however if one goes to the IMF site and does a search showing current GDP forecasts in US $ for developed countries and for emerging countries results are different than the web site you sourced. From what I have seen I would need to understand why the significant difference in the "world's richest countries" claiming sources from the IMF when some are significantly different that what I saw. Perhaps it is in the selection of the data or country currency etc. since there are numerous options for the data sets available. Although the US one matched and most other "developed nations" were closer to your source. 

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/weoselgr.aspx


These are not rankings but some random ones I picked on the IMF 2015 GDP forecasts in US $ that were significantly different.

US 18.1 T (same)
China 11.2 T
Russia 1.2T
Brazil 1.9T
Indonesia 890B
India 2.3T
Mexico 1.2T
Canada 1.6T (same)

Here is another ranking that's closer to your source numbers. It's all estimates for 2014

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html


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## gibor365

RBull said:


> ^I am no statistician or economist however if one goes to the IMF site and does a search showing current GDP forecasts in US $ for developed countries and for emerging countries results are different than the web site you sourced. From what I have seen I would need to understand why the significant difference in the "world's richest countries" claiming sources from the IMF when some are significantly different that what I saw. Perhaps it is in the selection of the data or country currency etc. since there are numerous options for the data sets available. Although the US one matched and most other "developed nations" were closer to your source.
> 
> http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/weoselgr.aspx
> 
> 
> These are not rankings but some random ones I picked on the IMF 2015 GDP forecasts in US $ that were significantly different.


I also not ecomomist  , just googled and found data... they refer not only to IMF , but to some other sourses
1. GDP Statistics by Country

International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook database

2. Latest Global Trade Statistics

World's Top Exports (WTEx)

3. Trade Partners by Country

CIA World Factbook

4. USA Trade Goods by Country

Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics


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## RBull

gibor said:


> I also not ecomomist  , just googled and found data... they refer not only to IMF , but to some other sourses
> 1. GDP Statistics by Country
> 
> International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook database
> 
> 2. Latest Global Trade Statistics
> 
> World's Top Exports (WTEx)
> 
> 3. Trade Partners by Country
> 
> CIA World Factbook
> 
> 4. USA Trade Goods by Country
> 
> Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics



Thanks. There are some pretty wide variances though..... and it sounds like your source is massaging a lot of sources to come up with these. 

What is needed is someone who is much more knowledgeable to explain what the real numbers are- if they're actually even known in places like China and Russia.


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## RBull

gibor said:


> btw, As per CIA number,Population living below national poverty line (%)
> United States 15.1
> Russia 13.1


To do a meaningful comparison we would need to define poverty for each country. It says in your source that "poverty" has a wide range of definitions across nations and is usually a higher standard in richer countries. I don't know what it is in Russia or the USA. Although my perception is it is a person living in poverty in the US is at a higher standard than Russia, although I may be influenced by the Western media you mock.


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## supperfly17

RBull said:


> To do a meaningful comparison we would need to define poverty for each country. It says in your source that "poverty" has a wide range of definitions across nations and is usually a higher standard in richer countries. I don't know what it is in Russia or the USA. Although my perception is it is a person living in poverty in the US is at a higher standard than Russia, although I may be influenced by the Western media you mock.


Yes I dont get it either he takes it so personally, even if he is Russian who cares you live in Canada, you are here in search of a better life, future. Hell 100% of us would choose Canada as a country to raise their kids over Russia.


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## supperfly17

gibor said:


> no one saying about hating US/Canada... critisizing current government positions is not meaning hate.
> 
> 
> where do you take this information from?! It's a nonsense!
> 
> P.S. there are still 47 million Americans living in poverty (on food stamps) — the highest number in two decades, according to the Census


Why do you dislike the Americans so much? My evidence might be anecdotal but my uncle knows how it is there and what the situation is. He used to have a decent government pay until all the Putin cuts and skyrocketing prices. 

I think you need a reality check.


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## gibor365

> Why do you dislike the Americans so much?


 if I give published number that there are still 47 million Americans living in poverty (on food stamps) , it doesn't mean I hate Americans... I have also family there  But US politics are disgusting!



> Hell 100% of us would choose Canada as a country to raise their kids over Russia.


 Maybe  My cousins and uncles could've easily immigrate to Israelor Canada , but they are raising their kids there and don't even think to immigrate


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## gibor365

RBull said:


> To do a meaningful comparison we would need to define poverty for each country. It says in your source that "poverty" has a wide range of definitions across nations and is usually a higher standard in richer countries. I don't know what it is in Russia or the USA. Although my perception is it is a person living in poverty in the US is at a higher standard than Russia, although I may be influenced by the Western media you mock.


Sure standards are different ... but also what you can buy on $1 in different countries are completely different. I cannot imagine family can live in Canada on 15K income, but in many countries include Russia (maybe except Moscow) family can live pretty comfortable...
Just compare gas prices is Canada and Russia.... found pretty interesting website when you can compare prices in any 2 different cities

You would need around 2,068.04$ (2,542.03C$) in Novosibirsk to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 5,200.00C$ in Toronto (assuming you rent in both cities). This 

Consumer Prices in Novosibirsk are 45.33% lower than in Toronto

Consumer Prices Including Rent in Novosibirsk are 51.11% lower than in Toronto 

Rent Prices in Novosibirsk are 62.40% lower than in Toronto 

Restaurant Prices in Novosibirsk are 51.18% lower than in Toronto 

Groceries Prices in Novosibirsk are 46.90% lower than in Toronto 

Local Purchasing Power in Novosibirsk is 54.32% lower than in Toronto

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-livin...untry2=Russia&city1=Toronto&city2=Novosibirsk


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## supperfly17

gibor said:


> Sure standards are different ... but also what you can buy on $1 in different countries are completely different. I cannot imagine family can live in Canada on 15K income, but in many countries include Russia (maybe except Moscow) family can live pretty comfortable...
> Just compare gas prices is Canada and Russia.... found pretty interesting website when you can compare prices in any 2 different cities
> 
> You would need around 2,068.04$ (2,542.03C$) in Novosibirsk to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 5,200.00C$ in Toronto (assuming you rent in both cities). This
> 
> Consumer Prices in Novosibirsk are 45.33% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Consumer Prices Including Rent in Novosibirsk are 51.11% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Rent Prices in Novosibirsk are 62.40% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Restaurant Prices in Novosibirsk are 51.18% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Groceries Prices in Novosibirsk are 46.90% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Local Purchasing Power in Novosibirsk is 54.32% lower than in Toronto
> 
> http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-livin...untry2=Russia&city1=Toronto&city2=Novosibirsk


So blind, I am sorry but you are quite misinformed. My uncle works in a hospital, as an anesthetist. He makes 45 000 rubles a week. Thats a bit over 1000$/weeek, I would assume nurses make way less there. So as a doctor he makes sh$t money. I am not sure how much other doctors are paid there but him and his peers make crap. He used to make triple that monthly. Maybe just St. Petersburg is a poor city and all other cities in Russia are way better off. I doubt that somehow. 

We should stop the nonsense here, and go back to discussing the looming Greek default.


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## gibor365

Yiu are talking nonsense, doctors in Russia never were one of the highest paid occupatins like in North America ... and 52K in US$ is pretty good salary considering that they have flat tax 13%...



> You would need around 2,633.51$ (3,237.11C$) in Saint Petersburg to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 5,200.00C$ in Toronto (assuming you rent in both cities).


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## RBull

gibor said:


> *Sure standards are different ... but also what you can buy on $1 in different countries are completely different. I cannot imagine family can live in Canada on 15K income, but in many countries include Russia (maybe except Moscow) family can live pretty comfortable...
> Just compare gas prices is Canada and Russia.... found pretty interesting website when you can compare prices in any 2 different cities
> *
> You would need around 2,068.04$ (2,542.03C$) in Novosibirsk to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 5,200.00C$ in Toronto (assuming you rent in both cities). This
> 
> Consumer Prices in Novosibirsk are 45.33% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Consumer Prices Including Rent in Novosibirsk are 51.11% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Rent Prices in Novosibirsk are 62.40% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Restaurant Prices in Novosibirsk are 51.18% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Groceries Prices in Novosibirsk are 46.90% lower than in Toronto
> 
> Local Purchasing Power in Novosibirsk is 54.32% lower than in Toronto
> 
> http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-livin...untry2=Russia&city1=Toronto&city2=Novosibirsk


Agree. This is exactly my point. You can't make a meaningful blanket statement about comparing Russian poverty and US poverty. They are likely different things due to cost of living as well as different standards overall. 

In your information here what's missing is average wages in both cities and definitions of poverty levels. I don't expect you to do the research to find this! 

I found this: 

http://www.software-russia.com/in_focus/issues/salaries-for-russian-programmers-up-in-2013


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## blin10

supperfly17 said:


> Yes I dont get it either he takes it so personally, even if he is Russian who cares you live in Canada, you are here in search of a better life, future. Hell 100% of us would choose Canada as a country to raise their kids over Russia.


Nobody takes it personal here, it's just when you start talking non sense with things like "Russia can't feed this and that", "My uncle is there so I know everything", "Because of Putin your Uncle lost job", etc, it forces us to reply. Not everything in Russia as bad as you say (maybe in the 90's it was, when Gorbachev sold out his own country and Soviet collapsed) . For example, I got a ton of cousins there and I offered them if they want to come here I'd fill out paper work, and non of them want to. When my parents came here long time ago, Canada was a neutral country, Canada was never hiding under a US skirt like it is right now with Harper (it's actually embarrassing to watch Harper speak, he's the smallest in the room but talks like he's the biggest). Anyways, this is going nowhere, let's switch back to Greece issue.


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## Parkuser

RBull said:


> ...You can't make a meaningful blanket statement about comparing Russian poverty and US poverty...


According to the World Health Organization the average life expectancy for a Russian is 69 (male/female – 63/75) while for an American 79 (76/81). Americans have to endure their food stamps and high gas prices 10 years longer than Russians can enjoy their Putin-guaranteed freedoms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...y_the_United_Nations.2C_for_2009.E2.80.932012


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## blin10

Parkuser said:


> According to the World Health Organization the average life expectancy for a Russian is 69 (male/female – 63/75) while for an American 79 (76/81). Americans have to endure their food stamps and high gas prices 10 years longer than Russians can enjoy their Putin-guaranteed freedoms.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...y_the_United_Nations.2C_for_2009.E2.80.932012


That's a 10 year old logic, you think Putin came to power and all of a sudden life expectancy dropped? it takes generations to level out life expectancy


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## sags

The meetings broke down with no deal...........

Default will be on July 1st, according to IMF.

There is a run on Greek banks. 2 Billion Euros have been withdrawn. They may not be open after this weekend.

Russia says it has no money to loan to Greece.

EU calls emergency meeting. 

What happens now ?


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## Parkuser

blin10 said:


> That's a 10 year old logic, you think Putin came to power and all of a sudden life expectancy dropped? it takes generations to level out life expectancy


Nevertheless it says something about the quality of life in Russia today. Vladimir Vladimirovich is in power since 1999. 16 years. Maybe it is leveling out.


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## supperfly17

sags said:


> The meetings broke down with no deal...........
> 
> Default will be on July 1st, according to IMF.
> 
> There is a run on Greek banks. 2 Billion Euros have been withdrawn. They may not be open after this weekend.
> 
> Russia says it has no money to loan to Greece.
> 
> EU calls emergency meeting.
> 
> What happens now ?


Unfortunately they will probably figure something out and loan them more $. Greeks will riot because their pensions will be cut. End game should be close anyways, time will tell.


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## humble_pie

it's a total gamble now but i'd bet with supperfly

don't buy a put on greece, son, don't take your guns to town


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## RBull

sags said:


> The meetings broke down with no deal...........
> 
> Default will be on July 1st, according to IMF.
> 
> There is a run on Greek banks. 2 Billion Euros have been withdrawn. They may not be open after this weekend.
> 
> Russia says it has no money to loan to Greece.
> 
> EU calls emergency meeting.
> 
> What happens now ?


Easy. We wait until the emergency meeting is over. 

I'm also not so sure Russian is done with Greece.


----------



## blin10

Parkuser said:


> Nevertheless it says something about the quality of life in Russia today. Vladimir Vladimirovich is in power since 1999. 16 years. Maybe it is leveling out.


When he took over the country, what kind of state was it in? It takes a long time to see any results with a population of 150mills. It's actually pretty interesting to analyze, US never had a problem with Russia being in a total chaos/destruction with a drunk president and oligarchs ruling everything, when Russia slowly starts to breath that's not good, US starts to knock it down.


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## cashinstinct

who cares?

I don't get why markets react so much for this small country.

They can fail.


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## humble_pie

did russia just bail out greece after all? that was a historic greco-russian deal signed yesterday in st petersburg - the new gas pipeline to be built from russia via turkey & greece to western europe.

the future pipeline will bypass ukraine & roumania - ie it will avoid NATO & NATO-leaning countries north of the black sea.

greece will earn transit fees worth several million dollars a year from the russian pipeline, could obtain natural gas at a discount, says the globe & mail.

reportedly, greece also signed a number of lesser trade deals with russia.

but these measures to revive the greek economy won't necessarily please the EC, the IMF, european leaders or western banks, says reporter Matthew Chance.

chance points out that western europe will be concerned by the amount of influence russia will now wield in greece, an important member of NATO.

afaik the US 6th fleet has been based out of greece for decades. For sure the new warm-&-fuzzy greco-russian relationship is going to put washington's nose out of joint.


http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/19/news/greece-russia-gas-deal/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ipras-pleads-for-eu-leniency/article25034465/


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## lonewolf

Greece should just say no to the bailouts. It is not the people of Greece that are being bailed out. It is the banks that were stupid enough to lend money to Greece that are being bailed out.

So far the bailouts have put Greece further in debt with the government spending less money on its people. 

The people of Greece must just love Government Sachs. People of Ontario love government Sachs for putting them in the position to subsidize hydro to the U.S for a few billion every year. The countries of the world need to break all deals with goldman


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## humble_pie

it's been said that vladimir putin is working steadily if stealthily to de-stabilize europe. 

capturing loyalty from greece - the mother of all democracy - is a coup for the kremlin. As with crimea, though, has the west truly caught on yet.

that gas pipeline deal didn't materialize overnight. It's probably been in active negotiation mode ever since Tsipras's socialist party was elected in Athens. 

perhaps that's why tsipras & greek finance minister varoufakis have been acting so cool & cavalier about their never-ending debt crises with western europe. Defaulting, leaving the euro, even reverting to the drachma, none of these will be so painful with a little help from new russian friends.


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## humble_pie

by giorgios! is greece possibly borrowing money from the new china-led BRICS banking authority in order to repay at least sufficient on the IMF debt by 30 june?

it was greek premier alexis Tsipras himself who gave it away in his keynote address to the st petersburg economic forum last friday, when he criticized the european union for believing it is "the center of the world."

"The economic center of the planet has shifted," said tsipras. "There are new emerging forces that are playing a more important role geopolitically and economically."

one of the emerging forces is the new BRICS bank. It's intended to rival the US-dominated IMF. BRICS = brazil, russia, india, china, south africa. Actually the other 4 countries are just a foil, the new bank is really a global initiative from china, where it's headquartered.

reportedly the new BRICS lending authority will commence operations 7 july 2015. That's in 2 weeks. Will greece be among its very first borrowers?

a possible agenda for tomorrow's west europe meeting might include:

- greece will bring to the table enough money that she's borrowed, not from russia but from the new BRICS bank, to appease the IMF about the 30 june deadline;

- greece will also bring to the table enough domestic concessions to soothe the finger-wagging puritanical mothers & fathers of western europe. Maybe not more pension cuts (those risk to cause riots at home) but maybe less incendiary items such as civil service salary freezes/cuts, raise retirement age, reform of tax evasion. Items that should erase those disapproving frowns from the faces of mama christine, mama angela & mama françois.

- europe, led by germany, will accept & forgive, since europe can't possibly afford to put all those german, dutch & french banks at risk. The euro will survive another day.

certainly the high wire greek drama is first-rate theatre. One has to admit that, leather jackets, motorcycle boots & all, modern greeks still know how to act up in style. 


http://thebricspost.com/putin-tsipras-laud-brics-cooperation/#.VYZxWs_bISA

.


----------



## blin10

humble_pie said:


> it's been said that vladimir putin is working steadily if stealthily to de-stabilize europe.


and US with EU puppets working steadily if stealthily to de-stabalize Russia


----------



## sags

The US and British banks are owed almost the same amount as the German banks............around 10 Billion each.

A relatively small amount for big banks to digest over time. 

I wonder if there are any credit defaults swaps held somewhere. Not likely for the central bank type of Greek debt ?

Capitulation by the lenders seems the only likely scenario to avoid a default. It won't be pleasant but is the best alternative.

If that is what ends up happening........well played Greece............party on.


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## dogcom

Your right sags most here and elsewhere have not thought about who has the most to lose. Greece has already lost and it is just a matter of where they would like to die. On the other hand the lenders and banks who have leveraged and have huge derivative bets, they cannot afford a domino effect as well as other countries like Italy and such looking at the same sort of default or debt relief.


----------



## humble_pie

dogcom said:


> On the other hand the lenders and banks who have leveraged and have huge derivative bets, they cannot afford a domino effect as well as other countries like Italy and such looking at the same sort of default or debt relief.



i agree with the above, western banks & their gummint authorities will act to stabilize the ship.

but i have a soft spot for greece, i don't believe for a minute that that fabled country is getting ready to lie down & die.

instead a new chapter may be beginning. Apparently russian tourism is numero uno in greece these days. The new russian gas pipeline will bring 4-5 years of construction employment for local greeks, after that there will be annual transmission rights worth several million $$ each year. Plus tsipras inked other trade deals with russia last week.

are we glimpsing a BRIC here or there as well? China recently announced its Silk Road export initiative, which will see chinese goods shipped to western europe & ultimately north america via the same route as the new gas pipeline. Overland to turkey, through turkey & greece, onwards to points west.

immediately north & northwest of greece are the balkan states. These are already big traffickers in drugs, stolen cars, arms & weapons, even smuggled human beings.

when i think about all this, i see the possibility that greece could deal herself into a new cross-trade era of relative prosperity. With a little help from her (new) friends.


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## OhGreatGuru

The paper today is quoting some EU officials as hoping they will have another bail-out agreement shortly. I hope they're wrong. It'll be hard on Greece in the short term if they default. But in the long run they can't keep piling up debt. 

And the rest of the EU needs a wake-up call. They've had "guidelines" on fiscal balancing and debt ratios since they went to the EURO, but several members have ignored them with apparent impunity.

Given the results of the last Greek election, I'm not confident that the Greek electorate will learn anything. I suspect they will be blaming the Germans for all their problems.


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## dogcom

I don't believe Greek will die but will die from the current system to be reborn again as it has done before. Really this is what is needed but the west and its banks are not ready to pick up the pieces, so kicking the can down the road is the only plan they have.


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## supperfly17

dogcom said:


> I don't believe Greek will die but will die from the current system to be reborn again as it has done before. Really this is what is needed but the west and its banks are not ready to pick up the pieces, so kicking the can down the road is the only plan they have.


The counter proposal document was leaked from the lenders.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/062415Greek.pdf


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## AvidSaver

Everyone involved has too much skin in the game for Greece to just up and default. If they do default, I don't think it will be this summer. Both sides will need to make some concessions.


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## humble_pie

greek negotiations are having a setback today, possibly just temporary.

i keep waiting for tsipras to pull a BRICS rabbit out of his hat. So far he hasn't said a word. Is he really such a fabulous actor? keeping up the grandstanding in order to grind down both western europeans & resistant greek voters?

what could china be thinking of, if they don't enable some kind of emergency loan to greece from the spanking new BRICS banking authority? 

china needs that new Silk Road export route through russia, turkey & greece. Logically speaking, a BRICS loan should be tsipras last, best, secret joker.

meanwhile the puritan mamas & papas in western europe are wagging their prudish fingers again - "just tighten those belts one more notch" they keep admonishing - while ordinary greeks are outraged to hear that their lazy, happy days talking politics at cafenions in syntagma square are coming to an end ...


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## humble_pie

supperfly17 said:


> The counter proposal document was leaked from the lenders.
> 
> http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/062415Greek.pdf



wow, those are the lenders doing all that red-lining? looks like the work of one person or one tiny committee, no doubt acting under draconian supervision

no wonder some western economists are sympathetic to greece, think greece is being pushed around a bit too much

c'mon alexis, give it your best shot now


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## Rusty O'Toole

Greece goes broke and wipes out debt every 50 years or so. Then goes right back to borrowing with no intention of ever paying back any of it. Joining the Euro zone was a scam from the first day. So don't worry about Greece. They know what they are doing. At least the big shots do. Too bad about the poor people.


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## steve41

Who said,,,, "beware of Greeks bearing gifts". Dunno if this applies or not.


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## MrMatt

AvidSaver said:


> Everyone involved has too much skin in the game for Greece to just up and default. If they do default, I don't think it will be this summer. Both sides will need to make some concessions.


What is the downside for Greece if they simply don't pay their debts?
Really, just don't pay the debts that are politically easy.
They've got enough money to pay pensions and wages, pay that and none of that foreign stuff. The government will still get re-elected.


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## humble_pie

if they have to revert to drachma, who knows what greece could afford to pay. Where would the exchange rate settle? what kind of imports, balance of trade, let alone pensions & salaries, would new drachma be able to support?

there's tsipas this am, weeping lustily & gnashing his teeth noisily while mama Merkel looks on with reserved northern caution. I can't help thinking that he's acting somewhat. Does anyone know that magnificent ancient stone theatre at Epithavros in the peloponnese? god, he's good.


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## supperfly17

Its so funny this back and forth they are doing. Unfortunately we all know that by Tuesday they will have a deal done.


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## Islenska

These folks have a weird way of doing business, but they have been at the game a long time.

Europeans have a way of muddling thru and be sure it will all come out in the wash.............some way somehow.


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## MrMatt

humble_pie said:


> if they have to revert to drachma, who knows what greece could afford to pay. Where would the exchange rate settle? what kind of imports, balance of trade, let alone pensions & salaries, would new drachma be able to support?
> 
> there's tsipas this am, weeping lustily & gnashing his teeth noisily while mama Merkel looks on with reserved northern caution. I can't help thinking that he's acting somewhat. Does anyone know that magnificent ancient stone theatre at Epithavros in the peloponnese? god, he's good.


They can't afford to pay their debts. The creditors knew they were a credit risk when they lent them the money. 
Just don't pay those creditors and move on


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## gibor365

> Greece's prime minister, Alex Tsipras, is calling a referendum on the country's debt deal, for July 5, according to various media reports.He says he notified Angela Merkel and the ECB's Mario Draghi about the plan for the referendum. He'll be seeking a short extension of the country's bailout program after seeing a deal with "unbearable burdens."


Question what does it meant for markets?


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## supperfly17

So referendum called for July 5th, but payment deadline is June 30th, how is that going to work? Will the Euros extend the deadline to July 5th? One has to wonder....


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## fraser

People are getting tired of the Greek Government antics. Sooner or later, probably much sooner, the economic community will waive good bye. Another Argentina.

I feel sorry for the wonderful Greek population. They have no industry other than tourism and perhaps olive oil and their economy has shrunk by 25 percent over the past few years. It is not a happy situation. They have been 'couch surfing' in Europe for too long.


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## humble_pie

LIH but i'm not up on the hour-by-hour ...

tsipras did ask for bridge financing from europe until he can hold the referendum on sunday 5 july. It seems like a reasonable request to me because i have no skin in the game. But it's easy to recognize that to some heads of state or monetary authorities in europe, the 5 days bridge will be viewed as another intolerably outrageous Last Straw.

meanwhile, the euro heads of state are said to be having a huge pow-wow today. If they vote down the bridge financing, then i guess the referendum idea is toast ...


----------



## supperfly17

humble_pie said:


> LIH but i'm not up on the hour-by-hour ...
> 
> tsipras did ask for bridge financing from europe until he can hold the referendum on sunday 5 july. It seems like a reasonable request to me because i have no skin in the game. But it's easy to recognize that to some heads of state or monetary authorities in europe, the 5 days bridge will be viewed as another intolerably outrageous Last Straw.
> 
> meanwhile, the euro heads of state are said to be having a huge pow-wow today. If they vote down the bridge financing, then i guess the referendum idea is toast ...


As of right now BBC reports 


Greece debt crisis: Eurozone refuses bailout extension

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33300543


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## AltaRed

MrMatt said:


> They can't afford to pay their debts. The creditors knew they were a credit risk when they lent them the money.
> Just don't pay those creditors and move on


That is easier said than done. There will be nothing to support whatever currency the Greeks dream up and no ex-Greek supplier will accept worthless currency. What Greece cannot then produce on its own, or have Euros or USD on hand to buy, it will not be able to import. Energy would be the biggie best I can tell. No doubt a bunch of food items too. How about telecom roaming charges? Internet? The list goes on and the lights go out.

OTOH, I agree a deal will be done. Perhaps like Argentina on a repetitive basis, there will be more austerity in return for some loan forgiveness. The referendum is nothing more than a last ditch attempt to save the government's butt.


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## gibor365

Greece on all rumours and statements could've collect billions already  like buy 3xbear ETF on all available amount on all major markets and Greece officials tell that they don't want any deals and hell will EU. Next day they sell all bear ETFs and buy all 3xbull ETFs, than Greece officials tells that previous statement not correct and they alwost agreed for the deal..... repeat it several times


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## gibor365

Interesting that right after new Greece "initiative", PBOC cuts rates ... is it somehow related?!



> The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled more than 12% late in the week, with one of the excuses for the selling being investor fear there would be no more rate cuts from the PBOC.Fear no more. Beijing reads the business section too. Today's 25 basis point rate cut brings the central bank's benchmark lending rate to 4.85%. The PBC also slashed the one-year deposit rate by 25 bps to 2%.


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## humble_pie

.
one pov still holds - even now - that greece will settle down, accept europe's harsh loan terms & remain within the EU & the Euro. This pov would welcome the european refusal to extend any more bailout credit.

while tsipras & his leftwing government evidently want to continue thumbing their noses at europe, it's clear from the greek parliamentary emergency vote this morning that a big faction in the country - it looks like a majority - don't go along with him.

the emergency vote that approved a referendum next week was 178 for, 120 against.

my guess is that many of those 178 who voted *yes* to holding a referendum are going to vote *yes* to accept the austerity european loan terms. Given the urgency, it is the only means these members of parliament have to oppose their high-drama elected leaders.

the media keep reporting how there is a large middle-class conservative element in greek society that dearly longs to remain in europe. This is the group that will accept the austerity terms. Will they be a majority in the referendum next sunday?

me i think that authorizing the referendum was a responsible thing to do & i also think that alexis tsipras (who condemns the european austerity demands) has been honourable in indicating that he may step down if the referendum vote agrees to the same austerity terms.

greeks this weekend are said to be thronging ATMs for cash withdrawals of Euros, filling car tanks with gas & stocking houses with food & other supplies.

reportedly there's no sign of panic yet, but it looks as if the bank of greece will impose capital controls this monday or tuesday. At that point, surely panic would be inevitable. 

calling for a referendum seems to be having the opposite effect of what leftwing prime minister alexis tsipras wanted. Instead of telling greeks a fairytale such as *Vote & Be Free,* this desperate week preceding the referendum is likely going to tell all greeks *Don't Mess with your Brother Europeans.*


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## MrMatt

AltaRed said:


> That is easier said than done. There will be nothing to support whatever currency the Greeks dream up and no ex-Greek supplier will accept worthless currency. What Greece cannot then produce on its own, or have Euros or USD on hand to buy, it will not be able to import. Energy would be the biggie best I can tell. No doubt a bunch of food items too. How about telecom roaming charges? Internet? The list goes on and the lights go out.
> 
> OTOH, I agree a deal will be done. Perhaps like Argentina on a repetitive basis, there will be more austerity in return for some loan forgiveness. The referendum is nothing more than a last ditch attempt to save the government's butt.


AltaRed, Greece can pay their current expenses. When a person or business goes into bankrupty or a nation defaults, they don't have to go make their own currency, people simply stop lending them money for a while, if your current income is high enough to cover your current expenses, you're okay. 

The best thing about Greece actually defaulting is guess who holds the Greek bonds? The rest of Europe will have to take massive write downs on those loans, which Europeans will still see as a Greek bailout.

So the options for Europe are forgive the loans, or forgive enough of the loans to make it appealing for Greece. 

Within Greece it's even simpler, some feel the pressure to pay the loans is a bad faith attempt to embarrass and humiliate them and that they shouldn't have to pay them at all. If the government says they were illegitimate debts and they refuse to pay, there is a sizeable block of votes to be won.


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## gibor365

There are reports that the Greek banking sector could remain closed all week, until Sunday’s referendum has been held.
The Athens stock market won’t open tomorrow morning either.


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## Rusty O'Toole

Europe's biggest banks only have reserves of 3% or so. A write down of 50% on Greek bonds will make them all insolvent in other words bankrupt. These last 2 years were not about Greece. Everybody knows Greece is broke and there is no chance they will ever pay any of their debts to anybody. The trick was to save the rest of the world's banks by papering over the Greek mess with new loans that could never be paid back, and staving off outright default for a few more months.


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## MrMatt

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Europe's biggest banks only have reserves of 3% or so. A write down of 50% on Greek bonds will make them all insolvent in other words bankrupt. These last 2 years were not about Greece. Everybody knows Greece is broke and there is no chance they will ever pay any of their debts to anybody. The trick was to save the rest of the world's banks by papering over the Greek mess with new loans that could never be paid back, and staving off outright default for a few more months.


Exactly, the money is gone, reborrowed and spent a dozen times over. 
Greece won't leave the EU, because quite honestly there is no way to kick them out.


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## gibor365

Curious what will be market reaction on Monday.... some tell that European indexes gonna have a big gains, others that it will be big down day


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## supperfly17

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Europe's biggest banks only have reserves of 3% or so. A write down of 50% on Greek bonds will make them all insolvent in other words bankrupt. These last 2 years were not about Greece. Everybody knows Greece is broke and there is no chance they will ever pay any of their debts to anybody. The trick was to save the rest of the world's banks by papering over the Greek mess with new loans that could never be paid back, and staving off outright default for a few more months.


So basically yea Greece doesnt care, they know Europe wont let them go bankrupt, and will keep loaning them money.


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## MrMatt

supperfly17 said:


> So basically yea Greece doesnt care, they know Europe wont let them go bankrupt, and will keep loaning them money.


Greece is bankrupt, but everyone seems to want to pretend they aren't.

The problem an actual bankruptcy would cause disastrous ripples for others. For Greece, not too much of a problem, it isn't like anyone is eager to be lending them new money.


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## Rusty O'Toole

Prime Minister Tsipras announces capital controls and bank holiday. Banks and stock market will not open monday, banks will be closed for one week. Bank withdrawals will be limited to 60 Euros when they reopen .

Long lines at Greek ATMs, gas stations and supermarkets today. The crowds are orderly so far.

Coming at the beginning of the Greek tourist season, does not look good for Greece's balance of payments. Tourists are advised to bring lots of cash. Credit cards and debit cards may not work.


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## james4beach

And now you know why Greeks withdrew billions in deposits in the preceding months.


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## james4beach

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/28/uk-eurozone-greece-limits-idUKKCN0P811C20150628

Interesting that holders of foreign bank cards are still allowed normal withdrawals. I think this is now a dangerous place for tourists to go... imagine how valuable your foreign bank card has just become.


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## Rusty O'Toole

Prime Minister Tsipras is going to hold a referendum on whether to accept the latest proposal from the Troika.

Ha ha ha good one. No one asked the people whether they should borrow all the money, still less what or who they should spend it on. Now it is time to pay it back guess who is suddenly responsible?

If I was a Greek voter I would say look up which politicians signed the original loans and let them and their cronies pay them back.


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## Jorob199r

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Prime Minister Tsipras is going to hold a referendum on whether to accept the latest proposal from the Troika.
> 
> Ha ha ha good one. No one asked the people whether they should borrow all the money, still less what or who they should spend it on. Now it is time to pay it back guess who is suddenly responsible?
> 
> If I was a Greek voter I would say look up which politicians signed the original loans and let them and their cronies pay them back.


Or I'd say "damn, I guess me and my friends should have paid our taxes and realized pensions at age 50 were unrealistic"


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## fraser

They learned their lesson from the Cyprus fiasco.

The big issue is that Greeks do not know what they are voting for or rather the ramifications of exiting the EU. They are apparently entry being asked to vote yes or no on the EU austerity plan.

successive Greek Govermment have bought their way into power with these deficits BUT the banks are equally to blame for extending so much sovereign credit. No doubt Italy, Portugal, and one or two others are watching to see if any of the debt get written down.


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## supperfly17

I still think they will figure their crap out because Europe would be crazy to let Greece go, just paves the way for other countries. Too much $ to lose, it would be in their favour to loan more $.


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## Flash

james4beach said:


> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/28/uk-eurozone-greece-limits-idUKKCN0P811C20150628


This just shows that cash is still king and you should probably keep the money under your mattress when tough times such as these are ahead. Imagine having hundred of thousands of dollars locked and inaccessible.


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## MrMatt

They are only voting on the bailout/austerity plan.

People talk about kicking Greece out of the EU, but the question is how? I read there aren't laws on how to kick a country out.


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## supperfly17

As expected last minute deal has been presented....


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## sags

If he gets a deal without austerity measures, Tsipras will be hailed as a conquering hero.


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## RBull

That's a pretty big if.


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## SkyFall




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## humble_pie

everyone knows the latest greek news. Default yesterday, followed by a letter to european finance leaders from alexei tsipras saying that greece is willing to bow to more draconian cost-cutting.

angela merkel has reacted by saying that europe is secure & she will await a greek post-referendum decision. This looks like the right approach to me.

obama on record this am as urging european leaders to flex with the situation in order to retain greece in the eurozone.

everybody knows all this.

what intrigues me is the absence of any news about any greek expedition to seek financing from the new BRICS banking authority, despite tsipras' clear signal a week ago that he was looking eastward.

this in turn suggests to me that the BRICS authorities may have been approached; they may have taken a look at greece's economic conditions; & they may have refused.

the above is only a hypothesis. But if it has merit, it would confirm the darkest fears about greek financial viability that have been recently voiced by european lenders. Until almost the last minute, i'd been thinking that russia plus BRICS would manoeuvre to buy greece another space of time to "recover" their economy. Evidently this has not happened, nor is it going to happen.

i agree with those who have spoken to this thread with restraint, saying that western Europe & particularly its banks, will now have to make concessions in order to protect the eurozone.

translation: i'm being careful with bank stocks, they are exposed. For the time being, i'm not regarding any temporary dip in bank or european stocks - or any stocks for that matter - as representing any buying opportunity. At least, not yet. We don't yet know enough about how the banks are going to have to take it on the chin.


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## AltaRed

humble_pie said:


> i'm being careful with bank stocks, they are exposed. For the time being, i'm not regarding any temporary dip in bank or european stocks - or any stocks for that matter - as representing any buying opportunity. At least, not yet. We don't yet know enough about how the banks are going to have to take it on the chin.


I suspect there are hundreds of bank stocks with no exposure to Greece debt. North American regional players for example. I would think those are opportunities.


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## MrMatt

humble_pie said:


> translation: i'm being careful with bank stocks, they are exposed. For the time being, i'm not regarding any temporary dip in bank or european stocks - or any stocks for that matter - as representing any buying opportunity. At least, not yet. We don't yet know enough about how the banks are going to have to take it on the chin.


If it's direct bank exposure, other than the Germans, it's limited, though quite disasterous for Europe.
If you're worried about indirect exposure, ie the domino effect, you've got exposure everywhere, which is why this is a problem.


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## fraser

I think Tsipras has pushed the EU over the edge with his silly antics, and those of his finance minister.

IF Greece gets a bailout it, IMHO, it will be contingent upon austerity measures. More VAT, less pension payments, higher pension age qualification, and most important EU supervision of Greek income tax collection/enforcement. If not, IMHO, Greece is out of the EU.

This country is as bankrupt as bankrupt can be. With no natural resources, no industry, and young, educated/trained Greeks are leaving the country in droves. This spells doom. It will be another Albania. Sad really.


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## humble_pie

MrMatt said:


> If it's direct bank exposure, other than the Germans, it's limited, though quite disasterous for Europe.
> If you're worried about indirect exposure, ie the domino effect, you've got exposure everywhere, which is why this is a problem.



i've also read that dutch banks are directly & heavily implicated.

i'd tend to be concerned that at least some giant US money-centre banks have some implication. After all, they are global money centres, as is london, as is singapore. There's no corner of the planet that is without tentacles coming from these banks.

to use a very primitive verbal image, the way i understand things is that all banks slice up their debts into razor-thin mandolin slices - this is a cooking image - then the banks sell these tiny slices onwards into their correspondent networks of banks who are situated literally all over the world. This practice serves to dilute the risk.

but it also means that we can't ever really know where each bank's filaments & tentacles actually extend.

that's why, for now, i think it's a bit too early to identify "opportunities" for buying. Such opportunities sound like pure gambling to me. I'd be in favour of working up a short list of candidates that might be opportunities as we get closer to referendum day this sunday 5 july/15, or better yet, get past sunday 5 july in order to see whether europe will hammer out some more concessions.

for incorrigible, shall we say addicted, gamblers, i wouldn't be against betting $1k or $2k on far OTM LEAPs calls in NBG.


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## humble_pie

fraser said:


> I think Tsipras has pushed the EU over the edge with his silly antics, and those of his finance minister.
> 
> Greece ... will be another Albania. Sad really.



only my opinion, but i didn't think tsipras was anticking. I thought he conducted himself in passionate accordance with his political principles. He can't help it that he's a flambuoyant south mediterranean greek rather than an uptight puritanical northerner avec-un-parapluie-dans-le-dos (the english translation goes something like tight-in-the-derrière.)

one hears that the beautiful, unspoiled Albanian coast is where the cool people are buying vacation homes at present. It's risky because albania reportedly has a big criminal underground, there's a lot of international smuggling, especially stolen cars from europe into the middle east plus drugs & weapons. Because of the danger, albania hasn't caught on yet as the Next Big Tourist Destination.


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## fraser

Oddly enough, Albania is on our B list to visit when we do a return trip to Croatia. We want to add it Corfu as well at the same time. Just starting to watch for data on Albania.


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## Rusty O'Toole

For those who think it possible to find a solution to the Greek financial crisis that does not involve default, here is a list of Greek obligations courtesy Wall Street Journal.

http://graphics.wsj.com/greece-debt-timeline/


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## sags

Greek debt is something like 15% interest now.

Their overdue payment is probably all interest and wouldn't drop their debt a dime.

For the privilege of paying exorbitant interest, the lenders are placing austerity requirements on them.

It is a like a payday lender telling a borrower....we know you have no money, so just pay us the high interest and promise to cut your grocery bills in half, sell your car and rent a cheaper place.

The borrower could accept the terms..............or they could just say "no thanks".

Nobody forced the Greeks to borrow............but nobody forced the lenders to give them the money either.

If I were the Greeks, I would repay only if the debt was cut by 70% and extended to 100 year loan at 1% interest.

The lenders will receive all of their money back over the next 100 years...........and a little extra for the inconvenience.


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## supperfly17

Rusty O'Toole said:


> For those who think it possible to find a solution to the Greek financial crisis that does not involve default, here is a list of Greek obligations courtesy Wall Street Journal.
> 
> http://graphics.wsj.com/greece-debt-timeline/


Looks like Lonewolf might be onto something. There is no way they can repay this unless, they just keep getting money loaned to them. Hence for us, might a down year for the market.


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## humble_pie

ping
pong

first he tells western europe We surrender! we'll accept bailout on your terms!

hours later he tells all greeks Ochi! vote No to the humiliating bailout!


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## humble_pie

fraser said:


> Oddly enough, Albania is on our B list to visit when we do a return trip to Croatia. We want to add it Corfu as well at the same time. Just starting to watch for data on Albania.



here's a lovely episode, shot on location in albania, from the british sit com Top Gear. The BBC recently fired Top Gear lead actor Jeremy Clarkson, causing millions of adoring fans to sign virtual petitions calling for BBC, as in bring back clarkson.

for another laugh, try googling something like albania mafia + canada. 

they're already ensconced in toronto, evidently have a toehold in montreal, thus disrupting the montreal turf of the longtime ruling Rizzuto mobster clan, who are related to the NY city Cotroni mob.

the problem for canada is that the new albanian mobsters are said to be far more violent & more vicious than the sicilians.



[video]https://youtu.be/OyH-351Z_-0?t=17[/video]


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## Rusty O'Toole

It just occurred to me that more than 10 years into taking on more debt in the Eurozone, and 2 years into the debt crisis, no one in Greece has made any serious plans to solve the problems except to borrow more money and refuse to pay it back.

All the austerity plans and refinancing schemes come from the European banks and bureaucrats, sitting there with a straight face as if their plans mean anything.

I still say Greece can't pay the money back, won't pay it back, never had any intention of paying any of it back, and is eventually going to repudiate the debt and start over with fresh borrowing, just the way they have done every 50 years or so for the last 3000 years.

The interesting question is whether it will trigger a Creditanstalt style collapse and world wide depression or get papered over with something like the Brady bonds.

My guess is an agonizing soap opera that peters out and comes to nothing but I am usually wrong.


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## Sasquatch

Rusty O'Toole said:


> It just occurred to me that more than 10 years into taking on more debt in the Eurozone, and 2 years into the debt crisis, no one in Greece has made any serious plans to solve the problems except to borrow more money and refuse to pay it back.
> 
> All the austerity plans and refinancing schemes come from the European banks and bureaucrats, sitting there with a straight face as if their plans mean anything.
> 
> I still say Greece can't pay the money back, won't pay it back, never had any intention of paying any of it back, and is eventually going to repudiate the debt and start over with fresh borrowing, just the way they have done every 50 years or so for the last 3000 years.
> 
> The interesting question is whether it will trigger a Creditanstalt style collapse and world wide depression or get papered over with something like the Brady bonds.
> 
> My guess is an agonizing soap opera that peters out and comes to nothing but I am usually wrong.


+100

I agree that the greek never had or have any intention of paying back any of the billions they owe.
They know and hope that the EU will be very reluctant to kick them to the curb.
They don't seem to be willing to bite the bullet in terms of social and economic reforms necessary to slowly turn this around.

Meanwhile the EU (mostly Germany and France) have been carrying them year after year, hoping in vain that eventually they'll see the light.

Give it up people, it is what it is.
IMHO the only thing to do is to cut off all further assistance of any kind and while holding their collective noses, admit that they will never see that money again.

Greece is not able to be an equal partner in the EU, just like a few others in the union who are close to bankcruptcy (Spain, Portugal, Italy).

The concept of a Europaen Union is a noble one as well as the notion of a common currency.
Real life though unfortunately has a different story to tell.


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## sags

The Greeks aren't alone in their debt problems.

The US owes 18 Trillion dollars and has no plans to pay any of it back.

It is still running deficit financing, but has stopped reporting it.

For 15 weeks in a row the debt has been listed at the same number...........a few million below the official "debt ceiling".

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ter...sury-says-debt-has-been-frozen-18112975000000


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## lonewolf

Goldman Sachs is responsible for about half of the Greek debt & helping to destroy the economies & finances of their own country as well as other countries . Why is no one going after Goldman to make them pay their fair share.


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## supperfly17

lonewolf said:


> Goldman Sachs is responsible for about half of the Greek debt & helping to destroy the economies & finances of their own country as well as other countries . Why is no one going after Goldman to make them pay their fair share.


any sources?


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## humble_pie

the globe's Michael Babad has a good roundup survey article this morning, including some west european & north american economists & analysts speaking mildly on greece's behalf.

the moderate middle-of-the-road commentators say that Alexis Tsipras' newly elected socialist party was never given a chance. It's only been in office a few months, the wreckage of the economy was caused by years of conservative governments.

of course, that's what every new government says about its predecessors. Only the history books will have a view of the present situation & even then, the historians won't have balanced views.

i still agree with the folks on here who think that things will muddle through & greece will stay euro each:


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...greek-crisis-into-a-calamity/article25204530/


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## fraser

My best guess is that the situation will remain fluid for a 10 days, two weeks, and then there may be a solution to remain in the EU. Probably a new finance minister, perhaps a new Government. 

More austerity cuts and better tax collection regime? Absolutely. Even if a good part of the debt was forgiven, Greece would find itself in exactly the same position in a few years if austerity and efficiency measures were not imposed.


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## lonewolf

supperfly17 said:


> any sources?


 Financial survival network (website) Goldman Sachs doesn't have clean hands in Greece by Pam Martens & Russ Martens (wall street on Parade) June 30 2015

This is not the first time I have read that Goldman had a major part in bringing down Greece

Goldman is the same company that was involved with white water & Hilary Clinton.

Clintons helped Goldman destroy the world economy before going into the 08 meltdown by allowing the bank to bundle up bogus securities & sell them to the public ( source on that one was Martin Armstrong read it on financial survival network)

Government Sachs has key members in governments around the world to help make them billions. Goldman is the reason why Ontario subsides a few billion for hydro electrical to the U.S


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## sags

The Goldman name does seem to pop up everywhere there is money involved, and it is true that many of their ex-employees are in high financial places around the world.

Maybe they just train and graduate the brightest and the best..............or maybe they just like to have "friends" around the world.

I doubt we will ever find out the whole story on anything........and maybe it's better if we don't know.


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## RBull

Goldman Sachs monkeyed around with Greece's currency exchange rates for many years, in order to deceive lenders that their debt was smaller/financial state better than it really was. To what exact extent and how it all evolved who knows.


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## fraser

I hope that Sunday's vote is YES. With any luck the PM and his Finance Minister will resign immediately, as they promised.


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## supperfly17

fraser said:


> I hope that Sunday's vote is YES. With any luck the PM and his Finance Minister will resign immediately, as they promised.


Or have the Germans forgive/restructure some of the debt like Greeks did to them in the 1950s. 

I dont think either yes or no helps. They still need over 50 bil over the next 3 years to sustain their economy. Who will come up with that?


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## lonewolf

I look @ the Greek situation in a way to gauge the psychology of the masses. The countries want Greece in the EU which is a We attitude by increase the size of ones unit of alliance. This is not the type of psychology that would be seen @ bear market bottoms when there is so much debt involved.


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## dogcom

Goldman Sachs was also bailed out back door through the AIG bailout.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/03/18/us-aig-goldmansachs-sb-idUSTRE52H0B520090318

Goldman cooked the books so Greece could enter the Euro zone.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...eece-fiddle-books-to-conceal-public-debt.html

Greece would be better off taking the hit and getting out now. Painful for sure but then they can find their own path and a new start. Staying the path will just mean endless pain. So their choice is endless long term pain or a short term but painful transition.


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## MrMatt

I read an article that normal Greeks aren't paying their debts to each other. If the general public thinks it is morally acceptable to not pay debts, and they already think they're being taken advantage of, this isn't going to end well.


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## Rusty O'Toole

Goldman Sachs is dedicated to enriching themselves and to hell with everyone else. Again and again they have been exposed doing shady deals when they blow up in (someone else's) face. Goldman makes the money and runs, leaving someone else holding the bag.

In the case of Greece, they never would have gotten into the Eurozone because they did not meet the financial requirements. Goldman helped them cook the books, shifting billions of debt off the books, and collected millions in fees for their trouble. 

I have also heard that ex Goldmanite John Corzine bailed out Goldman by buying their Greek bonds at par, at a time they never could have sold them in the open market except at a steep discount. This is why Corzine was never prosecuted for losing 2 billion of clients' money in the MF Global bankruptcy.

It's hard to find a slimy deal without Goldman at the bottom of it. They set them up, take their profits, and beat it before the riot squad arrives.


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## supperfly17

The lonewolf prophecy has begun.

macro sales and trading teams will be present in the London, Singapore, Tokyo and New York offices starting from 5 p.m. U.K. time on Sunday afternoon “to follow the developing situation and to give clients the opportunity to manage their risks,” according to a spokesman.
Rival banks have similar plans in preparation for Asian markets opening early Monday morning. Deutsche Bank has pulled together a task force focusing on the Greek election, and Morgan Stanley also has analysts and strategists in the office Sunday to monitor the Greek outcome, according to staff at the bank."


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