# Learning Goals For 2012



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am sure everyone including bloggers like Four Pillars and the forum administrators have things that they would like to learn this year in investing.
Or have goals to learn areas they may be weak in like future or even learning the basics for new investors.

For me my goal is to improve my patience and the sell side of investing this year. Of course I want to continue picking up new websites and such that I am not aware of and continue to learn everywhere. I have been very successful in finding investments to buy and make money in the very near future like days but have trouble knowing when to sell or let the profits run. 

Everyone even the best need areas to learn so what would you really like to learn this year.


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## spirit (May 9, 2009)

*Jim Otar*

I wonder if he is writing another book?


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I am sure everyone including bloggers like Four Pillars and the forum administrators have things that they would like to learn this year in investing.
> Or have goals to learn areas they may be weak in like future or even learning the basics for new investors.
> 
> For me my goal is to improve my patience and the sell side of investing this year. Of course I want to continue picking up new websites and such that I am not aware of and continue to learn everywhere. I have been very successful in finding investments to buy and make money in the very near future like days but have trouble knowing when to sell or let the profits run.
> ...


learn how to trade options better.
i am terrible at it.
all my successes were killed by my failures.
still trying though
that is why i trade mostly ETFS , since they have liquidity even though they erode.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I never really looked at Jim Otar's work but looked his name up and it does look interesting does anyone else know more about his calculator and his work. The retirement area is another area I need to educate myself in as I haven't really paid a lot of attention to it.

There are traders who are often right newbie even on 80 percent of their trades but because they let their few losers run to long they end up down. The other lesson I have heard is never average down on a losing trade unless you are absolutely certain that it is the right thing to do. 

ETF's are probably the best way to go so you are not stuck picking the wrong stock in a sector. Options are something I might embark on once I am very comfortable with the ETF's and stocks I trade and getting the sell side right.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I never really looked at Jim Otar's work but looked his name up and it does look interesting does anyone else know more about his calculator and his work. The retirement area is another area I need to educate myself in as I haven't really paid a lot of attention to it.
> 
> There are traders who are often right newbie even on 80 percent of their trades but because they let their few losers run to long they end up down. The other lesson I have heard is never average down on a losing trade unless you are absolutely certain that it is the right thing to do.
> 
> ETF's are probably the best way to go so you are not stuck picking the wrong stock in a sector. Options are something I might embark on once I am very comfortable with the ETF's and stocks I trade and getting the sell side right.



ur absolutely right dog.
as for averaging down u are also absolutely right and that is why i did not touch the level where i am at loss now on my etfs that are on loss.
but i will if needed.
trading the indexes at the volatile mkt we r in seems easier to weather for me.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

I will continue learning about options.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

I also want to learn about options. My current level of knowledge is near zero.

Currently I hold covered call ETFs but I want to learn to do this myself.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Top of the list: option trading & non-traditional investments.

Some good quotes to keep in mind.

http://financialedge.investopedia.c...vesting-Quotes-of-All-Time.aspx#axzz1jRrHrdth


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## stephenheath (Apr 3, 2009)

Personally I'd be happy getting comfortable and learning how to actually trade like Toronto.gal to make more profit. So far I've definitely been a buy and hold investor, meeting my profit goals to allow retirement at 65, but I'd love to just blow them away. The problem is I'm not sure it's something that can be learned... if it was, you'd think I'd have picked up something by now from the "What are you buying?" thread, but even when I pretend practice I never feel it's low enough to buy or high enough to bail and wind up tying up fake cash for buy and hold returns


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Trading didn't come easy I am sure for Toronto.gal or anyone else if they happen to be successful at it stephenheath. The first thing to know about trading I think is that if a stock doesn't go the way you think it should, don't hold it and take a small loss. Sure you may allow for some downside but sell if it isn't going right.

Generally use ETF's and look for investments that are in a favorable time of the year like oil at the end of January. Then look to see if it is oversold which RSI can show you that. You may also look at the charts both shorter and longer term to see how a sector has behaved in the past. Some also like to look at the moving average and so on but it will take at least a year to see and get comfortable with what you are looking at. After that you either have what it takes or you don't because like a professional athlete it is either in you or it is not.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Trading didn't come easy I am sure for Toronto.gal or anyone else if they happen to be successful at it stephenheath. The first thing to know about trading I think is that if a stock doesn't go the way you think it should, don't hold it and take a small loss. Sure you may allow for some downside but sell if it isn't going right.
> 
> Generally use ETF's and look for investments that are in a favorable time of the year like oil at the end of January. Then look to see if it is oversold which RSI can show you that. You may also look at the charts both shorter and longer term to see how a sector has behaved in the past. Some also like to look at the moving average and so on but it will take at least a year to see and get comfortable with what you are looking at. After that you either have what it takes or you don't because like a professional athlete it is either in you or it is not.


quite explanatory Dog.
one more thing to add , be prepared to lose money 
i am sure it happened to us all


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Newbie a trader is a liar if he says he hasn't lost money. Learning how to lose is the cornerstone of trading because it could just take one or two positions that you hold hoping to get your money back that destroys you.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Newbie a trader is a liar if he says he hasn't lost money. Learning how to lose is the cornerstone of trading because it could just take one or two positions that you hold hoping to get your money back that destroys you.


absolutely dog.
but so far , it is funny how i only see people saying that they actually make money at all times on this website.
that is why i am having difficulty in here with so many liars.
i for one am losing on two positions as we speak (large) FAZ and TZA.
as for HVU the position is very small , besides i think that if the VIX goes back to 35 sometime this year , i will get my money back and then some.
as for destruction , trust me been there


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

newbie said:


> absolutely dog.
> but so far , it is funny how *i only see people saying that they actually make money at all times on this website*.
> that is why i am having difficulty in *here with so many liars.*
> i:


Find one quote stating that and individual is claiming to be making money each and every time.

After you can't deliver on this go back to a hole where individuals like you (I am really trying to mince the words here, because the explicits I want to use to not fit this site) hide, and don't come back.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

Homerhomer said:


> Find one quote stating that and individual is claiming to be making money each and every time.
> 
> After you can't deliver on this go back to a hole where individuals like you (I am really trying to mince the words here, because the explicits I want to use to not fit this site) hide, and don't come back.


wow
somebody is angry again
lol
by the way the HOLE i came from , i am sure you would not last long , u can bet on that.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*looks like a good signature line*



newbie said:


> that is why i am having difficulty in here with so many liars.


My accountant gets a good laugh every year when going over my Cap gains/losses summary. 
I always have a larger number of losses than gains, 
but somehow I never fail to pay taxes!









_*Attract Accountant Attention*_


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am guessing newbie that you had a few run ins here on the forum. I am not sure what it is all about and I won't get in the middle of it. I will say that you have been honest with mentioning losses.

Overall from what I have read is most forum members have mentioned that they have lost money. I quite often here members say that the time a stock goes down is when they buy it. For me I lose money but exit the trades quickly to minimize my losses and I am now in the process of learning to be more patient to let my winners run. 

I still believe we are in a secular bear market with the need to purge debt so I am very careful about any kind of buy and hold. The only thing I have held since June is XTR and still hold that position.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Most financial forums are like that. Posters will state their gains but do not state their losses.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I am guessing newbie that you had a few run ins here on the forum. I am not sure what it is all about and I won't get in the middle of it. I will say that you have been honest with mentioning losses.
> 
> Overall from what I have read is most forum members have mentioned that they have lost money. I quite often here members say that the time a stock goes down is when they buy it. For me I lose money but exit the trades quickly to minimize my losses and I am now in the process of learning to be more patient to let my winners run.
> 
> I still believe we are in a secular bear market with the need to purge debt so I am very careful about any kind of buy and hold. The only thing I have held since June is XTR and still hold that position.


Dog 
thks for the quote.
here is the thing.
i learned and i am still learning the hard way how to trade this highly secular volatile mkt.
what i dont understand is the comments from some members .
i am deffinitely not a professional trader otherwise i would not be here to try and discuss and share ideas.
let me share u how i trade.
i never ever expose more than 20 % on my first tranche of a trade , for reasons that every trader should know.
i trade highly volatile ETFS and spreads on NG futures.
now if every time i post something i have some joeschmoe insulting me i will rebuke it with facts.
fact is that i said that i believed in this bull run and i was too early on my short.(except HNU)
question is how far the bulls can squeeze the bears out of their shorts.
that is yet to be seen.
reasons why i stayed in my short trade:
i can average down a lot more.
i do not believe in runs without volume.
I think T.gal has some similar aproach.
I will never start a conversation about options with Mr. Humble pie , (very humble yeah right ) because i believe he has a good handle in options trading by the jargon he uses , which is beyond my scope.
therefore If i ever post anything about options , it will be useless because all i do is buy call options and puts on NG companies.
i know nothing about diagonal options, LEAPS and the list goes on .
but i am reading and learning as much as i can .
but one can do only so much right?
so like jungle said , every board has the guys that say they r always winners.
i am not always winning as you know it .
I think my post above was a little off also in the sense that the majority here claimed to make profits last year.
i actually could not believe that i made profits last year with all that volatility.
So i consider myself lucky because if u beat the market last year u are more likely lucky than smart.
CHEERS

sorry about the ranting


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

All my losses came at the end of last year newbie because I got in a little early and went all in and I have now recovered all of it plus some to date. Last year I lost about 5 percent since January 1 but made a lot at the end of 2010. So in the last couple of years all is about even and that was through a lot of trading so I learned an awful lot and it was worth it. The biggest mistake I have made was not letting my winners run and not giving investments a little more time to mature because if I had I would have been way ahead instead of losing money last year. I have found my TA analysis to be almost spot on in the last couple of years but my method of trading and patience to be the problem. 

As far as the forum goes don't worry about the rants because I like to do them to from time to time. Also don't worry about the people here because 90 percent of them are good people and may disagree or hold your feet to the fire but that is good for us. Also it is good to have some spice to keep it interesting instead of boring. I remember on another forum making calls throughout 2008 and also said to buy Barrick in November 2008 only to be ridiculed and laughed at and it turned out I was spot on and they were wrong. When I pointed it out later in 2009 they said I was just lucky and their way is always the best basically. 

In 2009 and 2010 I was wrong about when the secular bear market would continue because of the Fed meddling but I quickly cut losses when I figured I was wrong. So I instead played oversold ETF's and stocks in and out to overcome my losses and also learned that being short was not for me except in isolated cases like silver last spring.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> All my losses came at the end of last year newbie because I got in a little early and went all in and I have now recovered all of it plus some to date. Last year I lost about 5 percent since January 1 but made a lot at the end of 2010. So in the last couple of years all is about even and that was through a lot of trading so I learned an awful lot and it was worth it. The biggest mistake I have made was not letting my winners run and not giving investments a little more time to mature because if I had I would have been way ahead instead of losing money last year. I have found my TA analysis to be almost spot on in the last couple of years but my method of trading and patience to be the problem.
> 
> As far as the forum goes don't worry about the rants because I like to do them to from time to time. Also don't worry about the people here because 90 percent of them are good people and may disagree or hold your feet to the fire but that is good for us. Also it is good to have some spice to keep it interesting instead of boring. I remember on another forum making calls throughout 2008 and also said to buy Barrick in November 2008 only to be ridiculed and laughed at and it turned out I was spot on and they were wrong. When I pointed it out later in 2009 they said I was just lucky and their way is always the best basically.
> 
> In 2009 and 2010 I was wrong about when the secular bear market would continue because of the Fed meddling but I quickly cut losses when I figured I was wrong. So I instead played oversold ETF's and stocks in and out to overcome my losses and also learned that being short was not for me except in isolated cases like silver last spring.


Hya 
dog
what a boring day lol.
i went back to bed today 
just got up and i am watching who really runs this mkts lol, the americans guess who.
tell me about thin volume.
anyway , in regards to ur comments above , sure u r right.
there will always the ones to instigate you , but i have a strange nature due to where i come from.
i will again refrain from replying to atacks.
glad that u r making money .
as for losses i think i will have to cover this week since the ECB stepped in hard today and will keep stepping in harder to maintain some balance in EUrope.
they r doing their qE via ECB and it will be like that for a good time.
like i said , i entered too early on my bear positions and will average them down.
Now IMO for the rally to continue, Earnings have to keep up with the street and China will have to improve their GDP .
dont think that will happen.
mkts in europe traded very thin today , so lets see tomorrow when the real money comes back to play the game.
keep up the good work, and use TA it is very helpfull.
disregarding the FORUM noise on this end for now


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> All my losses came at the end of last year newbie because I got in a little early and went all in and I have now recovered all of it plus some to date. Last year I lost about 5 percent since January 1 but made a lot at the end of 2010. So in the last couple of years all is about even and that was through a lot of trading so I learned an awful lot and it was worth it. The biggest mistake I have made was not letting my winners run and not giving investments a little more time to mature because if I had I would have been way ahead instead of losing money last year. I have found my TA analysis to be almost spot on in the last couple of years but my method of trading and patience to be the problem.
> 
> As far as the forum goes don't worry about the rants because I like to do them to from time to time. Also don't worry about the people here because 90 percent of them are good people and may disagree or hold your feet to the fire but that is good for us. Also it is good to have some spice to keep it interesting instead of boring. I remember on another forum making calls throughout 2008 and also said to buy Barrick in November 2008 only to be ridiculed and laughed at and it turned out I was spot on and they were wrong. When I pointed it out later in 2009 they said I was just lucky and their way is always the best basically.
> 
> In 2009 and 2010 I was wrong about when the secular bear market would continue because of the Fed meddling but I quickly cut losses when I figured I was wrong. So I instead played oversold ETF's and stocks in and out to overcome my losses and also learned that being short was not for me except in isolated cases like silver last spring.


thought of sharing

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-16/s-p-cuts-efs-facility-to-aa-from-aaa.html


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

dogcom said:


> 1. Trading didn't come easy I am sure for Toronto.gal or anyone else if they happen to be successful at it stephenheath.
> 
> 2. The first thing to know about trading I think is that if a stock doesn't go the way you think it should, don't hold it and take a small loss.
> 
> 3. Generally use ETF's.


1. Absolutely right dogcom; little in life comes easy [at least in mine].

I didn't own individual stocks until 2009 [after reading substantially for a # of months] and I didn't trade until 2010, in fact, had it not been for the very long & woozy volatility, I may never have become a trader as I had the buy/hold/prosper mentality before [while invested in Mutual Funds]. 

At first, I did a lot of reading & learning about my stock picks; after that, I did a great deal of fun/virtual trading [sticking to a group of stocks] & once I began trading live, they were small swing trade amounts at first [as in waiting weeks & months to exit trades due to my low # of shares/investment]. After liking it & doing it for a few months [and successfully I might add], I graduated to day-trading and haven't looked back; now I mix things up, including long-term investing and not just trading. 

I'm not suggesting anyone trade biotech stocks, but those volatile beauties are what made me a good trader; go figure.  

2. Because I was trading solid stocks [albeit volatile], that is not how I saw it and only learned to think that way in 2011. Previously, I would never sell, unless it was for profit. For the most part, I still think that way & have no losses to speak of [other than unrealized ones], but I'm getting better at switching losers and/or slow-movers for better prospects. 

Trading [investing in general for that matter] is like a very interesting puzzle and one must be alert, current and aware of many things simultaneously and so I'm still learning like everybody else. 

3. I don't trade any type of ETF's, but yes, there are the less risky types I suppose, but I don't trade any, not the safe ones nor the 3x bears/bulls, faz, naz or whatever else is out there. I'm not saying I never will, but haven't done so yet.

As hp often says, it starts with 'baby-steps', but you have to start somewhere as one needs experience to be good at anything. 

Yes, you can do it stephenheath.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

If you trade, you're bound to lose money (short-term focus).

If you're an investor, you're bound to make money (long-term focus).

Just my opinion


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

Financial Cents said:


> If you trade, you're bound to lose money (short-term focus).
> 
> If you're an investor, you're bound to make money (long-term focus).
> 
> Just my opinion


FC
i fully respect ur opinion , although i differ in opinion.
why do u think that as an investor u make money?
why cant one trade?
i am not talking about picking tops or bottoms.
what do u call short term.
when i get a chance i will read your blog


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

You don't just have to be one or the other. 

I trade volatility and use some of the profits to finance my long term holds. Best of both worlds IMHO.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> You don't just have to be one or the other.
> 
> I trade volatility and use some of the profits to finance my long term holds. Best of both worlds IMHO.


T.Gal
todays last 50 seconds action was impressive.
this was the fastest micro rally i have ever witnessed in thin trading in eons lol
i agree with ur quote above.
for now i aint holding nothing though, just for now though


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Example of volatility: 

One of the 1st stocks I ever traded back in 2010 was for about $5.30. I traded the stock numerous times for a moderate profit.

Today the stock is $2.66. If I had not traded it, I would be exactly 50% in the red. This scenario applies to dozens and dozens of stocks; ECA, CCO, SU, TLM, UUU to name just a few.

I managed double digit returns in 2010 & 2011 only because I traded.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

newbie said:


> T.Gal todays last 50 seconds action was impressive.


I think my eyes are about to pop from last Friday's 1/2 hour power rally.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Financial Cents said:


> If you trade, you're bound to lose money (short-term focus).


Also, you're just thinking of the traded stock, but not of what one may have done with the returned capital & that IMHO, is short-term focus.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> Also, you're just thinking of the traded stock, but not of what one may have done with the returned capital & that IMHO, is short-term focus.





Toronto.gal said:


> I think my eyes are about to pop from last Friday's 1/2 hour power rally.





Toronto.gal said:


> Example of volatility:
> 
> One of the 1st stocks I ever traded back in 2010 was for about $5.30. I traded the stock numerous times for a moderate profit.
> 
> ...



i agree with all the above by miles.
yes my eyes sometimes pop with the algo trading sometimes.
the big boys know exactly where to park the final droppings lol
tranche trading is key and not panicking when at loss in certain situations.
the mkts are irrational most of the time, and atm the politicians are downplaying serious events that can unfold from sovereign downgrades.
JMHO


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

newbie said:


> *tranche trading* is key and not panicking when at loss in certain situations.


That is how I saw things, though it took me a while to realize the powerful impact. 

One more small example that not adapting to volatility & specific market changes, and opting to instead do nothing [as in simply being a patient investor rather than a gambling trading idiot according to some], is a dangerous losing proposition:

- bought TLM for long term purposes on March 23/2010 @ *$17.20.*
- sold TLM on Dec. 17/2010 @ $20.73.
- profit of about 20%.

Today the stock closed at $11.81. Had I held, I would be deep in the red.

Instead of being in the red, I traded this stock numerous times since 4th Q of 2011 & made thousands in profit. How am I losing? I locked-in rates once again for long term, but not at the March 2010 high of $17.20, but at the Jan.2012 low of $11.70.

Ditto action taken on ECA in March/2011 & a few others.

I was not smart enough to have learned on my own to sell those stocks, but my readings helped me arrive at that decision.

I did not sell all my holdings, instead, I averaged down & some were the right thing to do, others were massive mistakes [MFC/RIM].

Anyway, the only point that I'm trying to make again and again, is that *a long-term investor that also trades,* pays attention to the global markets & adapts accordingly, is not someone who suffers from Attention Deficit Disorder, nor is he/she a gambling loser.

In absence of a crystal ball, nobody will ever get things right all the time & we will all have winners and losers, but that is not to say that buy & hold alone, is the right approach at this moment in time; investors are losing, but savvy investors + traders are winning. I rest my case.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> That is how I saw things, though it took me a while to realize the powerful impact.
> 
> One more small example that not adapting to volatility & specific market changes, and opting to instead do nothing [as in simply being a patient investor rather than a gambling trading idiot according to some], is a dangerous losing proposition:
> 
> ...


and to reinforce ur awesome comments above since u have achieved a great degree of proper trading imo , is to take advantage of sellofs.
FWIW all the stocks that i have seen so far with deep selloffs are off their lows.
RIM, netflix and many more?
now the question is why.
and if one can understand the why it will make u a better trader.
i have my eyes in excelent companies right now that are selling for a massive discount but i only have so much money right?

boy am i damn happy to see u trading GAL.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

newbie said:


> take advantage of sellofs. RIM, netflix and many more?


I see some current sell-off opportunities, like the above & others, as the bargains that I missed in March/09. Buy low/sell high, right?  

With the above mentality, I'm locking in some share prices that I now think have limited downside potential. I'm not waiting like you because I'm not as bearish.

Funny you mentioned NFLX as I missed the ride of that one, but might jump in soon. 52 week high/low: $62.37 - $304.79.  The other big regret was not getting LLL in 09.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> I see some current sell-off opportunities, like the above & others, as the bargains that I missed in March/09. Buy low/sell high, right?
> 
> With the above mentality, I'm locking in some share prices that I now think have limited downside potential. I'm not waiting like you because I'm not as bearish.
> 
> Funny you mentioned NFLX as I missed the ride of that one, but might jump in soon. 52 week high/low: $62.37 - $304.79.  The other big regret was not getting LLL in 09.


Tgal
i have two large bearish positions as u know.
never regret missing a rally.
i am sure u learned from it.
we cant be right at all times .
funny thing is that I basically knew i was early on my bearish entry and that is why i deployed 20% only of my capital for those particular positions.
as for HVU i deployed 2% of my capital only since i have no idea as how to trade volatility of volatility lol , therefore on that one i am deffinitely gambling.
at the same time i am learning as to how the VIX trades on the CBOE.
the reason i mentioned i am not a buyer of certain stocks right now is exactly due to my belief on my bearish position.
if i am wrong i can triple down and get out of it breaking even or making a tiny profit.
that is why i am saving gunpowder just for that purpose.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Thanks Toronto.gal and newbie for sharing your trading stories I hope that some of this will help those who read this thread.

One other point that you both may agree with is I think trading is different for each person. In that I mean once you learn to trade then you must come up with your own system that makes you comfortable to trade. 

I use RSI a lot when I trade as well as looking at the graph to see where the stock lines up in that graph. For example looking at HNU the RSI is right to buy but I would wait for the ETF to bounce up then drop but not breach that low before I might enter it. I am not buying HNU however because Nat Gas is really tough to play long over the last few years. Of course I do more then this but this is some of what I would do. Can you guys share any TA you might use in order to buy or sell.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Thanks Toronto.gal and newbie for sharing your trading stories I hope that some of this will help those who read this thread.
> 
> One other point that you both may agree with is I think trading is different for each person. In that I mean once you learn to trade then you must come up with your own system that makes you comfortable to trade.
> 
> I use RSI a lot when I trade as well as looking at the graph to see where the stock lines up in that graph. For example looking at HNU the RSI is right to buy but I would wait for the ETF to bounce up then drop but not breach that low before I might enter it. I am not buying HNU however because Nat Gas is really tough to play long over the last few years. Of course I do more then this but this is some of what I would do. Can you guys share any TA you might use in order to buy or sell.


well thks for the praise dog.
sure thing everyone is different, and i am getting killed with this rally on the financial index.
as for HNU/HND .
those two track the natural gas price action on prompt contracts.
further info at horizons website.
UNG actually buys and holds nymex futures contracts, and therefore "rolls" them every month like any large hedge fund.
the problem with those ETFs is Erosion and rebalancing.
It is very hard to daytrade natural gas with those.
u r basically gambling if u do so.
the contango and the rolls on the contracts plus the daily rebalancing is the most dreadfull part on HNU.
it just had a consolidation and was trading at the high of around 11 bux + aprox 3.65 Ng price on G12 contract
and now u know where it is at.
the RSI has relevance on the NG daily and the rolled contracts , nevertheless Ng is trading at this level due to other fundamentals issues.
in regards to TA , this is one part of my trading technique.
as you can see the mkt is ignoring other bearish fundamentals that do exist but , it is rallying on thin volume.
why am i so adamant about thin volume one may ask?
thin volume = short covering.
If investors were really interested in companies fundamentals they would hoard the stock mkt and u would see 3 or 4 times the volume u are seeing.
but what u are seeing is U.S treasuries going lower and a rising U.S dollar .
that is how large investors protect their positions plus options , which i will not mention because i am learning about it.
THE ECB injected free money in Europe for 3 years , and there was a massive run from banks to those funds, which the banks themselves are very cautious in lending to each other.
this is just a drop in the ocean of what u should actually read about , but it is a start.
the open interest on the natural gas Nymex futures has increased dramatically in the past few sessions pointing to possible lower lows , depending on weather runs and storage figures.
anyway
enough for u to dissect.
by the way copper is getting overbought fwiw
GL in ur endeavours and do ur own DD


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

For the first year in my life. I have nothing I want to learn from the market. 

I started investing in mutual funds and individual stocks in 1999. Lost my shirt in y2k.

I took a year off to seriously work on my career before getting back to investing and slowly veering towards trading. I realized that if I followed some of my instinct in 2000, I would've been fine. Y2k to me is probably 2008 for most of you. Except I know for sure Humble has already been through several y2k before I was even born. This is the period where I slowly picked up TA, bonds, preferred all these structured "weapons of mass destruction"

2007, I've seen it before. Traded, followed the politics, made out great, but it's still not enough. What I make is still far from spectacular, even if I put in 100% of what I have. (I started out with very little). I needed leverage So I learned options and futures and did some credit card hacking/arbitrage, whatever you called it. I whored out my pristine Credit score for money.

Lost money for two years on options and made money for the next two. Bought sold real estates and here I am.

So, what's next? I feel like I've completed the journey of learning all the instruments in the market. What follows is just getting richer.

**Edit forgot to mention that my robot trading is on going for about 6 months now, but this is more of an academic persuit that follows my previous profession.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Thanks Toronto.gal and newbie for sharing your trading stories I hope that some of this will help those who read this thread.
> 
> One other point that you both may agree with is I think trading is different for each person. In that I mean once you learn to trade then you must come up with your own system that makes you comfortable to trade.
> 
> I use RSI a lot when I trade as well as looking at the graph to see where the stock lines up in that graph. For example looking at HNU the RSI is right to buy but I would wait for the ETF to bounce up then drop but not breach that low before I might enter it. I am not buying HNU however because Nat Gas is really tough to play long over the last few years. Of course I do more then this but this is some of what I would do. Can you guys share any TA you might use in order to buy or sell.


My first ever algorithm trade uses (RSI slope)/share price and double checking with linear regression to see whether it's up or down trend. RSI is a very solid indicator.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Thanks for that Causalien you seem to have it together when it comes to trading by reading your posts. Your not that old by the sounds it so you are doing very well.

Newbie thanks for the info on HNU type ETF's, I already know about the drawbacks so I only hold them for about 2 weeks at the most. But for those learning it is a good thing that you did explain it like you did.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Thanks for that Causalien you seem to have it together when it comes to trading by reading your posts. Your not that old by the sounds it so you are doing very well.
> 
> Newbie thanks for the info on HNU type ETF's, I already know about the drawbacks so I only hold them for about 2 weeks at the most. But for those learning it is a good thing that you did explain it like you did.


np dog
the Carnage may not be finished till hedge funds roll to prompt +1.
if ur going to trade this via ETF be extremely carefull


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