# Coronavirus (COVID-19), 2020 and 2021



## sags

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51249208

The coronavirus appears to be spreading very quickly. Hospitals in China are over capacity.

The US State Department has closed their embassy and is evacuating their diplomats and staff and other Americans who want to leave.

President Xi is warning of a dire situation as the virus is spreading faster than expected.

There is a lot of activity underway.....they are building 2 new hospitals in a matter of weeks, quarantined millions of people, established checkpoints, banned travel, shut down the transportation system and many international brands such as McDonalds have closed their doors.


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## sags

It must be pretty infectious. Here is video of how they move patients.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=W3du_1579910945

This is scary video. I hope it is fake.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=ktKYM_1579801830


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> It must be pretty infectious. Here is video of how they move patients.
> 
> https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=W3du_1579910945
> 
> This is scary video. I hope it is fake.
> 
> https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=ktKYM_1579801830


I hope it's real.

They're not sure how it's transmitted and they're trying not to take any chances.
That's a GOOD thing.

Would you rather the infected take a crowded city bus home?


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## sags

First Canadian case in Toronto.

The guy was in Wuhan, got sick on the flight home, somehow passed through the airport "screening" and went home. They don't know if he took public transit.

His family is under "self quarantine". I hope they take the danger it more seriously than he did.

Now they have to trace all the people on the flight and anyone else he may have contacted. Not everyone displays illness but can still be a carrier and must be checked.

Given the guy was sick on the flight and had been in Wuhan, how did he get through screening at the airport ?


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## doctrine

We are not yet at peak panic but it is increasing nicely. Give it 2-3 more weeks and no one will care. The oil trade looks very interesting; the Libya outage is going to more than offset decreased demand and there may be a very quick tradeable snap back in February.


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## Prairie Guy

Trudeau is taking another "personal" day...I guess this isn't important enough for him to be available.


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## james4beach

Unfortunately I don't have high hopes of airport screening. One of the reports that came out after SARS said that the airport screening was a failure, totally ineffective: https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/sars-airport-screening-ineffective-study-says-1.485002

I hope the coronavirus amounts to nothing in the end and fizzles out, but I think this is one of those cases where fear and having our guard up is healthy.

Currently I am still planning on booking travel plans within North America and I'm speaking as a bit of a germaphobe myself. As I understand it, the main fear about this virus is the high likelihood for mutation, and becoming more deadly than it currently is. The current form does NOT appear to be tremendously deadly.


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## m3s

Imagine a city 5x the population of Toronto locked down with no gas or transportation and no answer at 911. Overpopulation is scary





turn on cc


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## james4beach

Is anyone here considering wearing a face mask during air travel?

Many in China Wear Them, but Do Masks Block Coronavirus?

The studies cited there, including from SARS, suggest that just about any mask reduces the risk of infection (the mask will prevent someone from spewing liquid droplets directly into your nose/mouth). If this bug becomes more prevalent in North America, maybe it's not a bad idea to wear a mask during travel



> The risk of becoming infected with the coronavirus in the United States — where there is only one confirmed case — is “way too low to start wearing a face mask,” said Dr. Peter Rabinowitz, who is co-director of the University of Washington MetaCenter for Pandemic Preparedness and Global Health Security.
> 
> But washing hands — frequently and before eating — is universally recommended. Hand sanitizer is effective against respiratory viruses. Experts also recommend washing hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, rubbing the hands together and ensuring all parts of the hands — the palms as well as the back of the hands — are washed.
> 
> “*It’s also important to keep your hands away from your face*,” said Dr. Vaishampayan. “Respiratory viruses don’t infect through your skin, they infect through your mucous membranes: the eyes, nose and mouth.”


That last point is very important. Scratching your nose, touching your nose, eyes, or even just touching your face is a good way to get just about any cold/virus.


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## sags

The thing about flying is that aircraft are among the dirtiest places to be. The maintenance between flights is not the best, so germs are left all over the place from previous passengers.

I read somewhere that an inspection of an airplane revealed all kinds of nasties..........yuck.


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## Longtimeago

A lot of misinformation right now and speculation. The picture should become much clearer as time goes on of course.

Airport screening only looks at temperature. It's like airport security screening, it won't actually stop anything, it is just there to reduce FEAR. In other words, it's a joke. An infected person may be asymptomatic including not having an elevated body temperature. The question is, when does an infected person become a potential transmitter of the virus. In the case of SARS it was AFTER they showed symptoms while in this case it appears it MAY be being transmitted BEFORE a person shows symptoms and during the incubation period of up to 2 weeks. But even that is not 100% confirmed yet. As I say, it's too early yet and not enough hard facts are known.

Wearing a mask will protect OTHERS from someone who is infected being able to transmit the virus through droplets. In other words they can't cough on you. Wearing one will not protect the wearer to any real degree. IF the virus is transmitted by droplet, it would not extend to a whole airplane cabin, only to a small area of roughly 6 feet. Transmission by contact from your hands is less likely than from someone coughing. Wearing a mask to avoid someone coughing on your mouth and nose will not protect against a droplet getting in through your eyes. You'd need a full face mask for that. As I said, a lot of misinformation is going around.

What we know is that there is a new virus that has emerged and it CAN be fatal. Some people may suffer no more than a mild flu that they get over in a week or two. Some may suffer a more acute case and of those, some may die. That's what we know. SARS was roughly 10% fatal in reported cases.

What you can do to protect yourself is the same as you can do to protect yourself from the common cold or the annual winter flu that goes around. Good hygiene including using a hand sanitizer often yes but you will always still be at risk unless you avoid people entirely until it has run its course. Avoiding large groups of people is an obvious precaution and none more so than where large groups of travellers are to be found. ie. airports. You could catch this virus in your local supermarket but the chances are higher in an airport obviously. 

Depending on how things play out, I do see this as POTENTIALLY affecting my travel plans in the near future. It all depends on whether they are able to contain it and bring it to an early end or not. In the case of SARS, the first case was reported in mid-November 2002 and WHO announced it was contained in mid-July 2003. In December 2003, WHO announced there had been 8096 cases reported in total and 774 deaths. Of those, Canada had 438 cases and 44 deaths. Looking at those numbers I would say Canada had a disproportionately high number given the population of our country. Canada is a country with a higher than average percentage of people of Chinese background which probably accounts for that I would think. What it tells me though is that we are probably at higher risk than in some other countries obviously.

To my way of thinking, you are at highest risk in an airport other than if you visited China. The question of whether an individual wants to take that risk is of course up to the individual. Just remember, the guy in Toronto walked through Toronto Airport on his way home and if he had coughed on you?

The odds may be long but the potential outcome is fatal, there's the rub. It is unlikely that you will be struck by lightening but you don't go and stand under a tree in a field to find out.


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## sags

It is believed the virus started by someone who ate "bat soup".

There are videos showing Chinese people eating bat soup and whole baby mice that they dip into sauces...........Cripes, what is wrong with those people.

Sorry........but I wouldn't be interested in trying the local deli food.

Sorry........I am not going to link to the videos. They are gross and people can Google them if they want.


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## like_to_retire

sags said:


> It is believed the virus started by someone who ate "bat soup".
> 
> There are videos showing Chinese people eating bat soup and whole baby mice that they dip into sauces...........Cripes, what is wrong with those people.
> 
> Sorry........but I wouldn't be interested in trying the local deli food.
> 
> Sorry........I am not going to link to the videos. They are gross and people can Google them if they want.


hehe, we don't often agree, but we agree on this.

Oy-vey, bat soup..............

ltr


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> It is believed the virus started by someone who ate "bat soup".
> 
> There are videos showing Chinese people eating bat soup and whole baby mice that they dip into sauces...........Cripes, what is wrong with those people.
> 
> Sorry........but I wouldn't be interested in trying the local deli food.
> 
> Sorry........I am not going to link to the videos. They are gross and people can Google them if they want.



Diversity is our strength!
Assuming they're cooked properly and harbour no dieseases it's not an issue.

Your repugnance is just your cultural bias in action.


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## newfoundlander61

Markets look to be in for a adjustment downward today related to the Coronavirus, not likely a long term event but maybe a good time to get out your watch lists for possible entry point.


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## Longtimeago

On the news this morning was a report on all the misinformation about coronavirus that is now being fed into social media. Some of it was downright ridiculous and yet it is obvious that some people will believe anything. One item was that if you eat spicy foods, it will stop you from getting the virus. I hear that eating spicy food will also stop a woman from getting pregnant. If you believe either of those contentions, I've got a bridge I want to talk to you about buying.

These kind of things just serve to show us just how much and how bad the influence of social media is having on people today. It's not facts that matter, it's how many people on Facebook etc. repeat something that is being believed.


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## Longtimeago

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-51271037

Conspiracy theories abound.


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## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> On the news this morning was a report on all the misinformation about coronavirus that is now being fed into social media. Some of it was downright ridiculous and yet it is obvious that some people will believe anything. One item was that if you eat spicy foods, it will stop you from getting the virus. I hear that eating spicy food will also stop a woman from getting pregnant. If you believe either of those contentions, I've got a bridge I want to talk to you about buying.
> 
> These kind of things just serve to show us just how much and how bad the influence of social media is having on people today. It's not facts that matter, it's how many people on Facebook etc. repeat something that is being believed.


 ... much like DT's famous screaming Twitter lines: FAKE NEWS!!!! which spread faster than the real viruses. The irony.


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## Eclectic12

sags said:


> It is believed the virus started by someone who ate "bat soup".
> There are videos showing Chinese people eating bat soup ...


You mean the one filmed three years ago outside of Wuhan and China in Palau?


There is a genetic analysis report saying snakes are the last host.


Either way - where one is sick, whether one dies from it or not, will it matter whether the source was snake, bat, beef, lettuce or water?


Cheers


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## sags

Sure.......why would anyone want to know the source of the contamination. Just let everyone continue to eat the tainted products.


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## Eclectic12

Now it's clear ... speculation and videos are more important than testing and should the source of banning products, whether they were tainted or not. :biggrin:


Makes me wonder how you can put up with beef and lettuce still being available. 


Cheers


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## sags

I think it is more than pure speculation. The Chinese closed down the market where the "food" was purchased and investigated the source of the outbreak.

The science is already clear. This type of virus is passed through animals, particularly in birds........hence the moniker "bird flu".

All of the major outbreaks of this type of dangerous virus began in China in animals or birds.


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## sags

Unfortunately it is nearly impossible to avoid food products from China, as the source of the food is often hidden from consumers.

An example is apples that are grown in China but advertised as "packaged in Canada". Why don't they package the apples in China where it is cheaper to do so ?

One reason only.........people wouldn't buy them if they knew. Lord help us if the chicken we are eating comes from China.


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## Beaver101

^ Well then, isn't it supposed to be somebody's job (aka government body) to be cracking down on this false marketing/packaging?

Personally, I would avoid all "imported" foods. But then I'm also taking my chances too with food these days, bought or not, imported or not.


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## sags

One would think.......but business lobby groups are powerful.


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## Beaver101

^ Well there you go ... part of the food-chain problem ... and yet we're no smarter than viruses (LOL).


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## james4beach

Some good tips on protecting yourself from this and any other virus:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-to-protect-yourself-against-coronavirus-152101500.html


“One of the smart ways to approach thinking about ‘how do you protect yourself,’ is to ask, well, when somebody here in the office has a common cold, and they’re sneezing all over the place, how do you make yourself not get the cold?” asked Garrett, the author of “The Coming Plague,” a book about emerging deadly diseases.

“Social distancing; that’s step number one. Keep your distance from other people” in order to avoid contracting or spreading an infection, Garrett told “The Final Round.” Cleanliness and personal hygiene is also of utmost concern, she added.

“For yourself, think of your hands as your number one problem: anything you touch that’s a common surface,” the author said, explaining that the same principle governs why people are discouraged from sharing utensils or cups.

“Here, in New York City, we think about the subways, we think about how we move around in the city; the answer, if you’re nervous, is wear gloves. Then take your gloves and wash them at night,” Garrett said. “If it’s socially required to shake hands, wash your hands afterwards.”​

The other important thing is to avoid touching your face. Any pathogens that get on your hands should be kept away from your face/nose/eyes. For example, rubbing your eyes is a good way to get infected with anything.

Hand sanitizer is also a good measure. If you need to touch your face or eat something, first squirt onto your hands. Rub your hands evenly as the mechanical rubbing motion helps the alcohol in the hand sanitizer kill pathogens. Check that the hand sanitizer is at least 60% ethanol.

CDC guidelines for using hand sanitizer


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## gmail

WHO just declared global emergency....where to from here?


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## Eder

Well it looks like the seafood market was not ground zero for the virus...some speculation that China was experimenting with the virus & it got out of the lab.


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## MrMatt

Eder said:


> Well it looks like the seafood market was not ground zero for the virus...some speculation that China was experimenting with the virus & it got out of the lab.


Possible, but I don't really believe it.
Though it appears more fatal than the flu, it's still way less dangerous than SARS.


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## doctrine

Wash your gloves? That's amateur hour. Nitrile gloves, and throw them out without ever touching the outsides. And then wear a water bottle on your head with a facemask. Do that walking downtown or at an airport, and you'll also solve the 'social distancing' problem.


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## james4beach

Eder said:


> Well it looks like the seafood market was not ground zero for the virus...some speculation that China was experimenting with the virus & it got out of the lab.


No reputable source is claiming that.

That suggestion is only circulating on conspiracy theory and tabloid web sites.


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## Eder

Hopefully the MSN is waiting for facts on this but I wouldn't hold my breath. At any rate it didn't originate at the market as originally suspected, that much we know.


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## james4beach

Eder said:


> Hopefully the MSN is waiting for facts on this but I wouldn't hold my breath. At any rate it didn't originate at the market as originally suspected, that much we know.


BBC has a good overview of the misinformation about the outbreak
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-51271037

The original source of the virus was believed to be snakes. Now there are theories that the source may have been bats, as these animals are a common source of viruses. Bats are suspected in the origins of Ebola, SARS and MERS.

CBC previously ran this story describing how bats are frequently a source of viruses such as this one:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/sars-mers-coronavirus-1.5438562



> "If you want to put some money on it, you'd get a bat involved," said Fauci. "SARS went from the bat to the palm civet cat to the human, and MERS went from the bat to the camel to human. I don't have any idea what the animal is for this one *but I would not be surprised if a bat was involved somewhere*."


The exact animal source of this one has not yet been determined.


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## Eder

Big Trouble in Little China....Senator Cotton...purveyor of tabloids and conspiracies


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## m3s

Crazy times when the media somewhat downplayed corona virus as the numbers are relatively small and yet the senators and generals are concerned

Difference is there are a lot of unknowns and mostly assumptions that it behaves like a common influenza. We don't know how long the incubation period is or if infected can be asymptomatic. So much for airports screening by skin temp

Wuhan just hosted CISM a few months ago (military Olympics) I share a keyboard with a girl who competed there about a month before patient 0


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## sags

The government says don't watch or listen to social media. They will tell us all we need to know.

Problem is that governments and main stream media are very often well behind social media in announcing news.

I often see video on social media before it is suddenly "breaking news" on CNN two days later.

Social media and the internet hosts a lot of garbage, but there are some very good sources on social media that people can aggregate for their own use.

Twitter is one I like because I can follow who I want to follow. Liveleak is an interesting website. It can't be taken as the gospel truth but should be considered.

In other words, don't count on the government to reveal everything they know. They don't want to create a full blown panic. Don't count on 100% authenticity on social media. 

Some of the more interesting video is people walking around the desolate city of Wuhan. It is a huge city and hardly anyone is moving anywhere.

Transit is stopped. Food shelves remain empty. Hospitals are full and shut down. 

One thing is for sure, the Chinese won't be able to maintain this quarantine forever. People need food, medicine and such.

Last I read, I think they have about 35 million people under quarantine.


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## sags

Other news....

Russia closed it's border with China.

Hong Kong closed the bridge to China.

A cruise ship with 6,000 passengers is quarantined off the coast of Italy.

The virus is infecting family members and health care workers. It appears to be spreading faster than previously thought.

Isolation will slow down the virus but won't stop it entirely. There are too many holes in the system as the world needs to continue to operate even if the virus is spreading.

The good news is that several research labs said they have found a vaccine. Unfortunately it will take months of human testing before it can be released.


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## sags

I am amazed that our local health officials have the gumption to stand in front of the news cameras and say they are well positioned.

Sure they are. In normal times, they have people lined up in hallways and shoved into coat rooms because they have no available beds.


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## newfoundlander61

I think SARS took about 6 months to fully contain so hopefully this one works out about the same.


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## Beaver101

^ I'm guessing (and hope) this episode is shorter. And that they merge with the regular known flu viruses that're available all year round.


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## Beaver101

sags said:


> Other news....
> 
> Russia closed it's border with China.
> 
> Hong Kong closed the bridge to China.
> 
> A cruise ship with 6,000 passengers is quarantined off the coast of Italy.
> 
> The virus is infecting family members and health care workers. It appears to be spreading faster than previously thought.
> 
> Isolation will slow down the virus but won't stop it entirely. There are too many holes in the system as the world needs to continue to operate even if the virus is spreading.
> 
> The good news is that several research labs said they have found a vaccine. Unfortunately it will take months of human testing before it can be released.


 ... the testings on the cruise ship came back negative according to the latest.

As for finding a vaccine, I don't think it'll make a difference if some (many) people won't even consider the regular (seasonal) flu shots.


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## sags

I am surprised the tested 6,000 people so quickly. That is efficient and impressive by whomever performed the testing.

They said today there is an incubation period of 14 days. Can we assume that testing would show a positive result even during the incubation period ?

The CNN reporter on the ground in China, says the government is not telling the public everything. They are trying to stop information from flowing out on social media.

He interviewed a nurse in a hospital and she said 30 of her colleague health care workers became infected despite taking all the precautions. Some are in hospital and others are home.

It was also reported that medical supplies and additional doctors are kept on the periphery areas and not getting through to where they are needed.

A bit of good news is they have almost completed the 2 new hospitals already. They put all resources available into getting the hospitals built.

One can't help but wonder what the Chinese know and aren't telling the world. Many countries have stopped all direct flights from China.


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## Beaver101

^ Maybe ignorance is bliss here or would you prefer mass pandemonium? 

Besides, I don't think any "government (including ours)" would reveal the "truth(s)" anyways. Or what's that alternative keyword? Transparency, transparent, transpantsy ... ????


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## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> Well it looks like the seafood market was not ground zero for the virus...some speculation that China was experimenting with the virus & it got out of the lab.


Provide a credible link to back up that statement Eder. I consider it to be yet another example of totally unsubstantiated rumour otherwise. It is this kind of statement found online that causes the confusion and fear in people. You are stating a CONSPIRACY theory, back it up or back off.


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## Longtimeago

sags said:


> I am surprised the tested 6,000 people so quickly. That is efficient and impressive by whomever performed the testing.


They tested the 2 people suspected of having the virus sags, not all 6000 on the ship. That would indeed have been impressive.


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## Eder

Longtimeago said:


> Provide a credible link to back up that statement Eder. I consider it to be yet another example of totally unsubstantiated rumour otherwise. It is this kind of statement found online that causes the confusion and fear in people. You are stating a CONSPIRACY theory, back it up or back off.


Did you even bother to view the video of the US senator I posted? Obviously you didn't.
And please learn to use the internet for yourself.


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> The government says don't watch or listen to social media. They will tell us all we need to know.
> 
> .


Except if you want updates in if your kids school is closed due to the strike you need to check social media. 
Or if you want updates on the 10 km pickering issue, social media.
Of course they're also working to figure out how to block or censor social media.


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## capricorn

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1

Some sites are quoting this paper to indicate human injection of H1V in coronavirus. If you read the comments at link above you can see it is sloppy science and it is as if the paper was written to sensationalise only.


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## Eder




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## MrMatt

Eder said:


>


2009 H1N1 Swine Flu was likely in Mexico, though interestingly it is genetically similar to several asian virii.

The really important thing is that we're getting much better at understanding how to react. 

Finally 9gag isn't my first choice for scientific claims.


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## ian

We did not make a decision about where to spend the winter until mid Jan for family reasons. Our choices came down to Thailand where we have been going for the past six years or Mexico. 

It was a coin toss but a single 5 hour flight instead of 23 hour and two connections was a factor. We are In our Merida hotel enjoying a cold beer thinking about how thankful we are that we did not select two months in Asia!


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## james4beach

ian said:


> We did not make a decision about where to spend the winter until mid Jan for family reasons. Our choices came down to Thailand where we have been going for the past six years or Mexico.
> 
> It was a coin toss but a single 5 hour flight instead of 23 hour and two connections was a factor. We are In our Merida hotel enjoying a cold beer thinking about how thankful we are that we did not select two months in Asia!


Great move, ian. Certainly lucky!


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## Eder

MrMatt said:


> .
> 
> Finally 9gag isn't my first choice for scientific claims.


It was an interesting list that I could only find there for some reason. I'm not claiming anything scientific,or for that matter anything at all , only amusing myself.


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## potato69

Meh, I'm flying out to Bangkok this coming friday. I'm sure it'll be fine.


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## capricorn

Even Macau and Hong Kong have travel restrictions for incoming travel from Wuhan, even for those showing no symptoms. Anyone knows what is the status in Canada?


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## james4beach

A friend of mine is trying to get from the US to Indonesia, but was going to fly through Hong Kong. His airline has cancelled the HK flight as apparently it's not just flights to China, but also many flights to HK being cancelled now (American Airlines).

There is definitely going to be an economic impact with flights from North America to Hong Kong stopping.


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## james4beach

The first death has been recorded outside of China. A 44 year old man in Philippines has died.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/02/cor...nes-reports-first-death-outside-of-china.html

That's a relatively young man. He had a fever, cough and sore throat (symptoms like a common cold). However, he did travel from Wuhan.


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## sags

The first case in London, Ontario.

Apparently, she is a student at Western University and returned back to Canada from China. She showed no symptoms on the flight but started feeling ill and went to the hospital.

The first test came back negative (local test) and the second test (national lab) came back positive. She was on self quarantine.

Now the question is that despite all the assurances from health officials, people on the flight may have been exposed and certainly people in the hospital were.

Patients in the emergency room, nurses, doctors, clerks, diagnostic techs, housekeeping. She also lives with a boyfriend but they say he wore a mask.

This is exactly how the virus could spread. People still go to the infected country and bring it back with them.

We should shut down the border to Chinese arrivals until the epidemic is over.

https://www.reddit.com/r/londononta...avirus_case_confirmed_in_patient_from_london/


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> The first case in London, Ontario.
> 
> Apparently, she is a student at Western University and returned back to Canada from China. She showed no symptoms on the flight but started feeling ill and went to the hospital.
> 
> The first test came back negative (local test) and the second test (national lab) came back positive. She was on self quarantine.
> 
> Now the question is that despite all the assurances from health officials, people on the flight may have been exposed and certainly people in the hospital were.
> 
> Patients in the emergency room, nurses, doctors, clerks, diagnostic techs, housekeeping. She also lives with a boyfriend but they say he wore a mask.
> 
> This is exactly how the virus could spread. People still go to the infected country and bring it back with them.
> 
> We should shut down the border to Chinese arrivals until the epidemic is over.
> 
> https://www.reddit.com/r/londononta...avirus_case_confirmed_in_patient_from_london/


I'm more concerned with the flu, in Canada half the ICU cases die, and there are over 8000 deaths in the US.
Why can't people wash their hands.


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## Beaver101

^ Because they can't be bothered or simply have no habit of "washing" - especially after using the toilets.


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## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> Did you even bother to view the video of the US senator I posted? Obviously you didn't.
> And please learn to use the internet for yourself.


So you have nothing to back up your statement Eder. Just what you think the video you posted proves is certainly not apparent to me and yes, I have viewed it. NOWHERE in it does the Senator claim that it originated in a lab and was then transmitted to the public. Even if he had said that, it would still just be his opinion, NOT proof of it being so.


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## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Because they can't be bothered or simply have no habit of "washing" - especially after using the toilets.


I'm reminded of an old joke Beaver101. Two guys worked for competing companies and every once in a while they would run into each other at a convention or something. When they did, one was always trying to 'one up' the other.

So they happen to both end up in a washroom using the urinals at the same time. The one guy finishes first and starts to walk out the door. Quick as a flash the other guy sees his chance for 'oneupmanship' and says, 'hey, where I come from we were taught to wash our hands after using the washroom.' The other guy pauses, looks back over his shoulder and says, 'that's interesting, where I come from we were taught not to pee on our hands.'


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## Eder

Longtimeago said:


> So you have nothing to back up your statement Eder. Just what you think the video you posted proves is certainly not apparent to me and yes, I have viewed it. NOWHERE in it does the Senator claim that it originated in a lab and was then transmitted to the public. Even if he had said that, it would still just be his opinion, NOT proof of it being so.


I guess you didn't read my first post either lol...the part where I said "some speculation that China was experimenting"
I guess "speculation" means the evidence is settled?

At any rate a laboratory mishap has not been ruled out...but the seafood market has been.....carry on.


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## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> I'm reminded of an old joke Beaver101. Two guys worked for competing companies and every once in a while they would run into each other at a convention or something. When they did, one was always trying to 'one up' the other.
> 
> So they happen to both end up in a washroom using the urinals at the same time. The one guy finishes first and starts to walk out the door. Quick as a flash the other guy sees his chance for 'oneupmanship' and says, 'hey, where I come from we were taught to wash our hands after using the washroom.' The other guy pauses, looks back over his shoulder and says, 'that's interesting, where I come from we were taught not to pee on our hands.'


 ... GROSS!!!! Just as GROSS as one supposedly highly educated woman (my boss) in the next bathroom stall who dashed out the door, altogether skipping washing her hands. Everytime I see her, I look at her well-manicured hands and my stomach turns.


----------



## sags

I don't think the seafood market has been ruled out yet.

Last I read, they said the virus might have been brought into the market by patient 0, but people inside the market were infected.

The market isn't exactly a "fish store". It is an open air market with stalls selling all manner of live and dead animals. The accumulation of animal feces makes it is an incubator for disease.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> I'm more concerned with the flu, in Canada half the ICU cases die, and there are over 8000 deaths in the US.
> Why can't people wash their hands.


The disease is airborne, so washing hands is important but doesn't provide much safety. The virus can be spread across a room by someone sneezing or coughing.

Health care workers who are fully gowned and protected are getting the disease. Masks are not providing much safety either.

The only real safety for vulnerable people is to isolate themselves away from the infected. Avoiding large crowds might also be a good idea.

People taking trips to foreign countries are taking a big chance right now. We still have 500 Canadians trapped in China.

Many countries are shutting down all travel from China, or imposing mandatory 14 day quarantine on arrivals from China.

Any of those countries could impose a ban on travel at any time, just as China has done. The G7 countries are meeting to discuss collaborative action.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> ... Many countries are shutting down all travel from China, or imposing mandatory 14 day quarantine on arrivals from China.
> 
> Any of those countries could impose a ban on travel at any time, just as China has done. The G7 countries are meeting to discuss collaborative action.


 ... great idea, no ins and no outs. An invisible wall. Plus snow-days (or months) for employees! Yay!!!


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The disease is airborne, so washing hands is important but doesn't provide much safety. The virus can be spread across a room by someone sneezing or coughing.


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/actions-prevent-flu.htm

Handwashing is one of the main recommendations, and a very easy one to implement.


----------



## m3s

There seems to be some conflict of information between the FDA and the CDC

“The FDA is currently not aware of any adequate and well-controlled studies demonstrating that killing or decreasing the number of bacteria or viruses on the skin by a certain magnitude produce a corresponding clinical reduction in infection or disease caused by such bacteria or virus”

"The FDA did acknowledge that the CDC currently recommends using alcohol-based hand sanitizer for flu prevention (if soap and water are not readily available), and Purell is made of ethyl alcohol. But right now, the FDA does not allow hand sanitizer brands to make claims about their efficiency for any kind of disease prevention. As far as they’re concerned, hand sanitizers are unapproved drugs, according to the letter."

The FDA Warns Purell to Stop Saying It Can Prevent the Flu and Other Serious Illnesses

Kind of like how there's no study to show that flossing is good for your teeth


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> There seems to be some conflict of information between the FDA and the CDC
> 
> “The FDA is currently not aware of any adequate and well-controlled studies demonstrating that killing or decreasing the number of bacteria or viruses on the skin by a certain magnitude produce a corresponding clinical reduction in infection or disease caused by such bacteria or virus”
> 
> "The FDA did acknowledge that the CDC currently recommends using alcohol-based hand sanitizer for flu prevention (if soap and water are not readily available), and Purell is made of ethyl alcohol. But right now, the FDA does not allow hand sanitizer brands to make claims about their efficiency for any kind of disease prevention. As far as they’re concerned, hand sanitizers are unapproved drugs, according to the letter."
> 
> The FDA Warns Purell to Stop Saying It Can Prevent the Flu and Other Serious Illnesses
> 
> Kind of like how there's no study to show that flossing is good for your teeth


The CDC published the research behind their recommendations.
Quite simply soap is best, but Hand sanitizer does work on some germs (see reference 10 in the link)

https://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/show-me-the-science-hand-sanitizer.html


FYI, from one of the linked studies
CONCLUSION:
This study suggests that preferential use of ABHS over soap and water for routine hand hygiene might be associated with increased risk of norovirus outbreaks in LTCFs.

There is a serious concern that some people think Hand sanitizer is better, when it isn't.
I've actually heard Nurses (in Ontario) talk about how hand sanitizer is better. Scary.


----------



## doctrine

sags said:


> The disease is airborne, so washing hands is important but doesn't provide much safety. The virus can be spread across a room by someone sneezing or coughing.
> 
> Health care workers who are fully gowned and protected are getting the disease. Masks are not providing much safety either.
> 
> The only real safety for vulnerable people is to isolate themselves away from the infected. Avoiding large crowds might also be a good idea.
> 
> People taking trips to foreign countries are taking a big chance right now. We still have 500 Canadians trapped in China.
> 
> Many countries are shutting down all travel from China, or imposing mandatory 14 day quarantine on arrivals from China.
> 
> Any of those countries could impose a ban on travel at any time, just as China has done. The G7 countries are meeting to discuss collaborative action.


You wonder why 500 Canadians are still not evacuated? Dozens of countries already have evacuated. Some, like France, have already flown 2 x 300 planes of citizens out from many EU countries.

Yet no Canadians have been able to leave. The charter has been available for a week. Yet no reporting on why it's taking so long. It's still sitting in Canada on the tarmac. This has nothing to do with China-Canada relations, of course. They're just peachy.


----------



## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> ... GROSS!!!! Just as GROSS as one supposedly highly educated woman (my boss) in the next bathroom stall who dashed out the door, altogether skipping washing her hands. Everytime I see her, I look at her well-manicured hands and my stomach turns.


LOL, you might want to get out more Beaver101. Attitudes towards hygiene and how to deal with it differ all around the world. You are simply putting YOUR values onto others.

In some countries they look at how Canadians use toilets as 'gross' and unsanitary. For example, how many Canadians wash their butt after each use of the toilet? They don't? You have to be kidding, how gross is that. 
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191004-the-peculiar-bathroom-habits-of-westerners

I'm guessing you also eat with the same hand as you wipe your butt with. Super gross.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> ... GROSS!!!! Just as GROSS as one supposedly highly educated woman (my boss) in the next bathroom stall who dashed out the door, altogether skipping washing her hands. Everytime I see her, I look at her well-manicured hands and my stomach turns.


A good reminder that in the work place, try to avoid shaking hands or sharing items that are held in the hand. Wash hands frequently at work and use hand sanitizer... when I started doing this religiously, I got far fewer colds at work. People are filthy.


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> ... This is exactly how the virus could spread. People *still go to the infected country* and bring it back with them.


??? ... the second death in Wuhan was reported to be Jan 17th where the London case arrived at Pearson Jan 23rd.

Sounds more like she was already in China instead of the claim when after the outbreak was known to be a problem.


Cheers


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> LOL, you might want to get out more Beaver101. Attitudes towards hygiene and how to deal with it differ all around the world. You are simply putting YOUR values onto others.


 ... ah, how am I putting my values onto others in this case when she's "Canadian" all-around, and not Asian or African or anywhere but Canadian? It's very simple here ... some people just don't have "good=clean" habits ... like washing your hands after using the toilet which is no different from the habit of brushing your teeth after eating.



> In some countries they look at how Canadians use toilets as 'gross' and unsanitary. For example, how many Canadians wash their butt after each use of the toilet? They don't? You have to be kidding, how gross is that.
> https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191004-the-peculiar-bathroom-habits-of-westerners
> 
> I'm guessing you also eat with the same hand as you wipe your butt with. Super gross.


 ... yah, I would supposed so but then I don't suppose you would eat with your hands right after you wipe your butt? or in this case, why even bother wiping your butt. 

We're not talking about "cultural" values of hygiene in this case (North America!), just simple "hygiene" of washing your hands often so as to not spread germs around so easily or better yet, ingesting the nasties yourself of which case I couldn't care less if you want to (like my boss who often bites her fingernails ... YUMMY!!!!).


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> A good reminder that in the work place, try to avoid shaking hands or sharing items that are held in the hand. Wash hands frequently at work and use hand sanitizer... when I started doing this religiously, I got far fewer colds at work. *People are filthy.*


 ... totally agree. And don't get me started on how "clean" hotels are which are unavoidable for business travel. <<<<Shudder>>>>


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> ... totally agree. And don't get me started on how "clean" hotels ... unavoidable for business travel.


I carry alcohol wipes and quickly wipe the TV remote control, sink faucet handles, and toilet flush handle - in that order 

That's one cloth wipe and maybe 60 seconds of work. Seems like a great investment!

I do something similar on all flights. Maybe especially important these days. Wipe the headrest, arm rests, touch screen, tray table.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> I carry alcohol wipes and quickly wipe the TV remote control, sink faucet handles, and toilet flush handle - in that order
> 
> That's one cloth wipe and maybe 60 seconds of work. Seems like a great investment!
> 
> I do something similar on all flights. Maybe especially important these days. Wipe the headrest, arm rests, touch screen, tray table.


 ... same here but I avoid touching the remote and bring my own paper cups.

Sorry but not doing the airline's job of wiping down everything ... just headrest if it's vinyl, video screen and tray table.


----------



## sags

There was an interview on TV about airlines performing any extra cleaning of the aircraft after flights due to coronavirus. You don't want to know.


----------



## Eder

Seriously...this is a forum with a handful of active members...if it is not amusing & sometimes entertaining you do need to strike it off your to do list lol.


----------



## Beaver101

^ CMF on a "To-Do" list? You're funny too Eder.


----------



## humble_pie

it's too bad the mods deleted the post, it was an excellent example of how the mentally ill do get significantly worse as they age


----------



## moderator2

To give context to Eder's post. Here's the ex-member, with expletives removed



condor said:


> Decided to take a peek after my personal decision not to follow...ANYTHING....on this forum......i can see **** HEAD SAGGY BRAINDEAD ***HOLE..is still around..
> 
> .my life has never been better since i left..yes mr admin...i know..i know...dont bother with the suspension notice....i have found happiness ever since the last suspension......so bye to all...some good people here but that ****ing ***hole...SAGGY BRAIN...just ****s it all up.
> 
> CONDOR...has left the building...:smiley_simmons:
> 
> MAKE SURE THIS IS A PERMANENT SUSPENSION:bi_polo:


Wish granted


----------



## Longtimeago

Well, you gotta admire condor for having spoken his mind at least. We do believe in free speech right?


----------



## humble_pie

moderator2 said:


> Here's the ex-member, with expletives remov
> 
> Wish granted



but the original was so much more, ah, picturesque

this is the trouble w hand sanitizers. A little spit & polish & the original would have blazed like a trophy.


----------



## sags

A cruise ship with 3500 people including 251 Canadians is under quarantine in Japan due to coronavirus infection.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canadians-coronavirus-cruise-ship-japan-1.5452345

Another cruise ship is quarantined on Hong Kong.

One has to wonder about a cruise ship company that was letting passengers on and off in various ports of call at the epicenter of the virus.

Also why people decided now was a good time to take the cruise to that area of the world.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> ... Also why people decided now was a good time to take the cruise to that area of the world.


 ... why wouldn't they? Those cruise-vacations would have taken months of planning in advance. 

Besides, why didn't the cruise-ship operators desisted operations if they "knew/determined?" there was a threat? Now Im wondering if those sick passengers get their money back?

Anyhow, here's a list of possible illnesses to catch on a cruise ship:
https://www.cheatsheet.com/health-fitness/dangerous-disease-outbreaks-on-cruise-ships-what-you-need-to-know-to-stay-safe.html/

Have your pick.


----------



## Longtimeago

The only good news here is that SO FAR, the death rate is only 2% compared to SARS which was 10%. Of course, if the infection rate continues to climb, the percentage of deaths doesn't really help if 10,20,50 times as many people become infected, the actual number of deaths can surpass SARS quite easily.

As for containment, cruise ships, airport screening etc. do not confuse actions taken to allay the fears of the public with actions that will stop the spread of the virus. Nothing done at a border or entry point will stop the spread of the virus. It's like airport screening for weapons, it sounds good to the public but doesn't actually stop someone who is determined to do it somehow. Screening people's temperature in an airport is simply good panic control marketing.

The only way you can expect to really avoid exposure is to never go out of your house till it has run its course. SARS took about 9 months to do so.


----------



## Eder

Whisper number out of China is 154,000 infected with more than 24,000 dead. Hopefully this is untrue but any actual coverage in China is being suppressed as is usual.


----------



## james4beach

Does anyone know of a reliable resource that tracks total # cases and # dead broken down by country? I would like to be able to monitor this by the numbers, especially as I consider travel.


----------



## Eder

I use this one https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/locations-confirmed-cases.html


but I think you might like https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...-outbreak-latest-updates-200204233943034.html more.

stats are here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It may all be moot as I doubt China's CBC has all of a sudden discovered honesty & integrity.

Its interesting that no new cases in Thailand, their recovery rate is best and now they claim they have found a cure.


----------



## Eclectic12

This site looks like it has what you want.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases


Cheers


*PS*
I skipped posting the US CDC web site as I wasn't finding number of deaths by country. 
Maybe it's in a drill down somewhere but I'm too impatient to do that. :biggrin:


----------



## Eclectic12

Eder said:


> ... It may all be moot as I doubt China's CBC has all of a sudden discovered honesty & integrity.


Could be ... but then again, I doubt James is planning to visit China so it may not matter that much to him.




Eder said:


> ... Its interesting that no new cases in Thailand, their recovery rate is best and now they claim they have found a cure.


Hadn't heard that ... it will be interesting to follow.


Cheers


----------



## james4beach

I'm still not changing my travel plans around North America. It looks like it's currently localized to Asia, though obviously it is spreading.

I'm a bit concerned there are so many cases in Japan and Singapore. Those are two wealthy countries with good levels of hygiene, though they have high population density and I suppose that is the big factor.

One of my business colleagues just flew to Indonesia. The country is free of cases but I wouldn't have done that personally. He got an amazing deal on the flight.


----------



## Eclectic12

Japan and Singapore have China as their 2nd or 1st trading partner. I'd expect there would be lots of travel as another source of the higher count. Proximity likely also plays a role and might be driving tourism.

I'm not sure it is as simple as having more resources.


Cheers


----------



## doctrine

Here is the John Hopkins tracking page:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> I'm still not changing my travel plans around North America. It looks like it's currently localized to Asia, though obviously it is spreading.
> 
> I'm a bit concerned there are so many cases in Japan and Singapore. Those are two wealthy countries with good levels of hygiene, though they have high population density and I suppose that is the big factor.
> 
> One of my business colleagues just flew to Indonesia. The country is free of cases but I wouldn't have done that personally. He got an amazing deal on the flight.


I feel sorry for people who have no choice but to fly on business, to anywhere. Clearly, the highest risk you can put yourself into in regards to the coronavirus is in an airport. That is where the highest potential number of people will cross paths with someone who may have been infected. Confining travel to N. America may diminish your chances by a small percentage but not a large percentage. Any time you go into a large number of people you are at risk, the question is which are the most LIKELY places with the highest risk and that has to be airports ANYWHERE.

Your comment re a colleague who got an 'amazing deal' just shows where people's heads are in terms of what matters to them. 'I got a deal, I'll risk coronavirus'. Not the smartest move someone could make.

The coronavirus will affect my travel plans for the near future at least. I have no intention of going anywhere near an airport until I see they have it under control. Anyone booking now for a flight in the next few months if they don't HAVE to, is foolish in my opinion. Look at the people who booked and got on a cruise that has ended up with them quarantined on the ship in their cabins for 2 weeks. They booked ahead no doubt and did not have an opportunity to avoid it since it all started happening while they were already on their cruise. But someone booking a cruise now to take in say May, June is risking being quarantined if just ONE passenger or crew on that ship contracts the virus.


----------



## Longtimeago

The only source I use to keep track of what's happening with the coronavirus is the World Health Organization. They are putting out daily situation reports.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

Keep in mind that this kind of thing is always going to be subject to political and economic pressure in what is reported to the public. The WHO is the least likely to be subject to that kind of pressure. The Canadian Public Health Department and the American Centre for Disease Control, are more likely to be influenced as they are government agencies and their pay cheques are at risk if they give out information the government does not want them to release.

Right now for example, the Canadian Public Health Department assesses the risk to Canadians as LOW both domestically and for travellers other than for travel to China. Meanwhile the WHO assesses the risk globally as HIGH. 

SARS only reached 8,096 confirmed cases worldwide and resulted in 774 deaths. That is over a 6 month period before it was contained. Right now this coronavirus according to WHO has reached 24,363 confirmed cases as of today. That is 3 TIMES the number of confirmed cases SO FAR, starting at the end of December.

Don't underestimate the impact of political and economic pressure on what information we are given. 

One aspect of this that is quite worrying is that this virus and SARS both originated in China and in both cases, it seems clear the Chinese Government delayed reporting it to WHO by as much as 2 months. Clearly, that delay allows the virus to spread before any measures to contain it can be put in place. Why did China delay reporting it, well, it isn't hard to understand it would be for political and economic reasons. What is to stop them doing the same thing again if another new virus appears, absolutely nothing and that is worrying.


----------



## sags

The virus is spreading quickly and the number of deaths will continue to rise quickly as more people become infected.

The internet has stories of funeral homes in China being unable to handle all the deceased and they are cremating everyone right away now.

The Chinese doctor who was the whistleblower forcing China to admit they had a problem publicly, has passed away from the virus.

China is sharing information with the medical community, but is still suspected of not releasing everything to the public.

On the positive side, authorities finally appear to be taking the virus as seriously as they should have from the beginning.

The travel industry has held talks with high level health officials and likely will be shutting down a lot of travel. 

Some airlines are laying off employees as they shut down airports. Cruise ships are being denied entrance to harbors.

It seems only government action will force a stop to some companies that are spreading the virus around the world.


----------



## james4beach

It not only spreads very quickly, but it's also killed a few younger people.

This 34 year old Chinese doctor has died. He was one of the first to raise the alarm about the viral outbreak.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795

Distressing to see a 34 year old doctor die from this.


----------



## Retired Peasant

Yeah, perfectly OK if it's just older people, eh?:rolleyes2:


----------



## s1231

probably...... good to follow this method for now.
then wait and see under control + settle down this.
less affect---shorter recovery ---smaller damage (avoid opposite) 

https://sputniknews.com/world/20200...try-of-foreigners-from-china-from-4-february/

Russia's S7 Airlines suspended all flights to China and Hong Kong 
from 4 February to 28 March.

According to the press service, the company considers these flights to be risky, as a basic check of passengers at the airport of departure does not guarantee the detection of primary symptoms of the coronavirus.

the company said it had cancelled all regular flights from Russia to China starting from 1 February and all those from China to Russia starting from 2 February over the outbreak.


----------



## sags

Another cruise ship is quarantined in NYC, but this time it is a ship that cruised the Caribbean and was nowhere near China.

Apparently, some of the passengers had traveled to China recently and the CDC checks the previous travels of ship passengers.

It makes one wonder if they are checking airlines for people who have traveled to China as well.

Two thoughts on this...who knew they had the capability to track everyone's travel history and how risky is it to travel anywhere when you don't know where other people have been.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/07/us/coronavirus-cruise-ship-new-jersey/index.html


----------



## sags

On the one hand it is comforting that authorities have ramped up their efforts to control the virus, but on the other hand it makes one wonder if they know something they aren't telling the public.

Sort of..........why the sudden flurry of activity globally. Not long ago it was "controlled, low risk, etc). Now they are quarantining ships and countries.

Edit......yet another cruise ship with infected passengers.

_Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced Thursday that Japan will deny entry of foreign passengers on another cruise ship heading to Japan — Holland America's Westerdam, on its way to Okinawa from Hong Kong — because of suspected virus patients found on the ship._


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> Another cruise ship is quarantined in NYC ...
> Apparently, some of the passengers had traveled to China recently and the CDC checks the previous travels of ship passengers ...
> who knew they had the capability to track everyone's travel history ...


I doubt CDC has the capability or was tracking the previous travels of ship passengers. 

CDC says a pair of relatives were ill while at sea. It seems far more likely that where the symptoms were flu like, the ship medical staff asked about recent travels to China. The combination of symptoms with recent travel being confirmed as China likely meant CDC was contacted. One of the first things I'd ask if I was CDC would be to have the ship's crew ask the rest of the passengers about recent travel as after all, people on cruises likely travel, right?




sags said:


> ... on the other hand it makes one wonder if they know something they aren't telling the public.
> Sort of..........why the sudden flurry of activity globally. Not long ago it was "controlled, low risk, etc) ...


??? ... tens of thousands infected in China with hundreds dead and travelers in other countries testing positive for the virus isn't a good enough reason to ramp up activity?


Cheers


----------



## Beaver101

I think officials should be checking on trains, buses, taxis + any other mode of transportation where alot of people travel ... not just ships and planes.


----------



## junior minor

well according to some it's rather useless to wear gloves as the virus is actually smaller than the holes in vynil. 
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...rotect-you-from-catching-the-new-coronavirus/ ...so-called because it blocks 95% of bacterias
Masks and gloves do a better job of spreading bugs than stopping them, he said. (considering that if they gather moisture, it might allow bacteria to spread even more- the solution could be masks with changeable filters that can be cleaned with alcohol rubs rather than just thrown away to jam the oceans) 
https://nationalpost.com/news/world...-flights-forget-masks-says-top-airline-doctor


----------



## junior minor

*truthful,interesting news from naturalnews.com ,website built by someone that tests*

everything he eats. I would suggest searching for the ''tidepod'' articles where he actually took the time of looking up the damned things and found over 300+ components that were neither listed nor known. Not as if he was a kid playing with a microscope and a ''lil chemist kit'', he has a full lab in his residence. 





 this video can be found in a very well detailed article that I will not list and suggest you read if you are wondering what's really going on. 

This is a very useful website that actually gives you solutions and healthy tips, and suggestions, rather than just scaring and spreading fears for the sake of click baiting and panic mongering. I read it on a regular basis because even if it's biased, at least it is as honest as it is heartfelt. Kind of banned by google, as well. 
https://www.naturalnews.com/


----------



## lonewolf :)

Is the media over blowing coronavirus to cause a recession so Trump does not get elected? 

The numbers just are not there compared to the flu which killed over 34,000 in the US in 2019 with 16.4 million in the US going to a health care provider during the 2018/2019 flu season which peaks between Dec & Feb.

This is no way a black plague with a 90%+ kill ratio.


----------



## Synergy

lonewolf :) said:


> Is the media over blowing coronavirus to cause a recession so Trump does not get elected?
> 
> The numbers just are not there compared to the flu which killed over 34,000 in the US in 2019 with 16.4 million in the US going to a health care provider during the 2018/2019 flu season which peaks between Dec & Feb.
> 
> This is no way a black plague with a 90%+ kill ratio.


I don't think they are blowing things way out of proportion. I lived in Toronto during the SARS outbreak, worked in a few hospitals and clinic and everyone was pretty scared back then. We screened everyone coming in, mandatory hand washing stations, etc. Everyone had to take turns. Back then we where however a lot less prepared.


----------



## Longtimeago

lonewolf :) said:


> Is the media over blowing coronavirus to cause a recession so Trump does not get elected?
> 
> The numbers just are not there compared to the flu which killed over 34,000 in the US in 2019 with 16.4 million in the US going to a health care provider during the 2018/2019 flu season which peaks between Dec & Feb.
> 
> This is no way a black plague with a 90%+ kill ratio.


No lonewolf  if anything the media is still downplaying the risks in my view. As I have noted above, it is not just the mortality rate you have to look at it is also the transmission rate. Try reading this: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Consider SARS which only infected 8000 people but had a 10% mortality rate and Swine flu which infected 20% of the world's population in 2009-2010 but only had a mortality rate of .05% and killed at least 150,000 people. 

You have to look at both combined to assess the risks. A low transmission rate even with a high mortality rate (SARS) will kill less than a high transmission rate with a low mortality rate (Swine flu). Worst case of course is if there is a high transmission rate combined with a high mortality rate like your black plague example. 

Bottom line at the moment is they do not KNOW how this coronavirus will pan out yet as it tells you in the link I just gave. So far it's transmission rate APPEARS to be higher than SARS and it's mortality rate APPEARS to be higher than Swine flu. So far, that's high + high to a degree but it's just too early to predict with any real certainty.

I don't see the media pointing out these comparisons do you?


----------



## sags

It was pointed out on CBC that Canadian health authorities don't even agree with the best scientific authorities on the subject.

Soclal media has been well ahead of official health authorities. It also appears that in Canada, the health authorities haven't been to local overcrowded hospitals.

Where.......exactly, are all the waiting isolation rooms in hospitals ? Your city maybe ? Surely not mine because they have recently been treating people in meeting rooms.

Then there is a huge question of what happens if a virus starts infecting old folks homes, retirement homes, schools and workplaces ?

No reason to panic yet, but the Canadian authorities have to do more than stare stunned into the media cameras and tell people to wash their hands.


----------



## sags

So our city is investigating a "handful" of possible coronavirus infections.

Bearing in mind we have a big university and colleges in the city with many Chinese students, who may be heading to China to spend "reading week" and March break at home........this is what the Chief Medical Officer of Ontario has to say.

""One of the messages we're emphasizing is that, for people who are traveling, if you are going to China and you come back there will be expectations around how you monitor yourself for symptoms and potentially restricting your activities. We're trying to make sure people are aware.

We have new possible infections that must have come from people returning from China and the government doesn't appear to understand the implication of that.

How about....if you feel the need to go to China while the virus infection rages on, you will be under mandatory quarantine upon return.

If the virus spreads to Canada in any meaningful way, we are not prepared to deal with it.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> So our city is investigating a "handful" of possible coronavirus infections.
> 
> Bearing in mind we have a big university and colleges in the city with many Chinese students, who may be heading to China to spend "reading week" and March break at home........this is what the Chief Medical Officer of Ontario has to say.
> 
> *""One of the messages we're emphasizing is that, for people who are traveling, if you are going to China and you come back there will be expectations around how you monitor yourself for symptoms and potentially restricting your activities. We're trying to make sure people are aware.
> *
> We have new possible infections that must have come from people returning from China and the government doesn't appear to understand the implication of that.
> 
> *If the virus spreads to Canada in any meaningful way, we are not prepared to deal with it*.


 ... yes we are.... we have SARS redux or SARS the sequel. That "advice" above does not make sense.


----------



## jargey3000

....well, looks like we're in good hands....
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-china-who-bruce-aylward-1.5459615


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> So our city is investigating a "handful" of possible coronavirus infections.
> 
> Bearing in mind we have a big university and colleges in the city with many Chinese students, who may be heading to China to spend "reading week" and March break at home........this is what the Chief Medical Officer of Ontario has to say.
> 
> ""One of the messages we're emphasizing is that, for people who are traveling, if you are going to China and you come back there will be expectations around how you monitor yourself for symptoms and potentially restricting your activities. We're trying to make sure people are aware.
> 
> We have new possible infections that must have come from people returning from China and the government doesn't appear to understand the implication of that.
> 
> How about....if you feel the need to go to China while the virus infection rages on, you will be under mandatory quarantine upon return.
> 
> If the virus spreads to Canada in any meaningful way, we are not prepared to deal with it.


Quarantines are difficult, but they make a lot of sense.

It appears this spreads before you become symptomatic, which is a problem.
We can all stay home once we're sick, but if we have no symptoms, or just a slight headache we may not still be contagious.

I'm glad to see they're really trying to contain this, they're likely learning a lot, which is good.


----------



## james4beach

While I'm not a fan of the media's fear mongering, this is one of those cases where I think a little bit of fear is healthy.

Scientists are learning about the disease and getting better statistics on things like incubation period, recovery rate, ages affected, etc.

In the mean time if people remain cautious enough, avoiding unnecessary high risk contact, and take a bit more care with their regular hygiene... perhaps we can prevent this from turning into a catastrophe.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> While I'm not a fan of the media's fear mongering, this is one of those cases where I think a little bit of fear is healthy.
> 
> Scientists are learning about the disease and getting better statistics on things like incubation period, recovery rate, ages affected, etc.
> 
> In the mean time if people remain cautious enough, avoiding unnecessary high risk contact, and take a bit more care with their regular hygiene... perhaps we can prevent this from turning into a catastrophe.


"avoiding unnecessary high risk contact, " << The problem is there is no definition for this.
Do you just avoid any place anyone could be? The scary thing is they aren't symptomatic.


----------



## Longtimeago

Anyone who relies on the mainstream media for information is an idiot in my opinion. Nor would I rely on anything any public health organization has to say either. The only organization I will listen to is the WHO. 

What WHO is saying at present is that they do NOT know how reliable the numbers from China are.
They do NOT know how it is transmitted.
They do NOT know what the mortality rate is.
They do NOT know when a vaccine might be available but the most reliable estimates are 18 months from now.
They rate the risk as HIGH globally.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> "avoiding unnecessary high risk contact, " << The problem is there is no definition for this.
> Do you just avoid any place anyone could be? The scary thing is they aren't symptomatic.


Well, I would say the definition is simple actually if you change it from 'high risk' to just 'avoid unnecessary risk'. The answer to that is yes, as you say, avoid any place anyone could be. Of course that is not practical but to whatever degree you CAN avoid people, then do so.


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> While I'm not a fan of the media's fear mongering, this is one of those cases where I think a little bit of fear is healthy.
> 
> Scientists are learning about the disease and getting better statistics on things like incubation period, recovery rate, ages affected, etc.
> 
> In the mean time if people remain cautious enough, avoiding unnecessary high risk contact, and take a bit more care with their regular hygiene... perhaps we can prevent this from turning into a catastrophe.


The problem with 'fear mongering' james4beach is in trying to determine what is in fact 'fear mongering' vs. what is simply about being prudent. Many people refer to something as 'fear mongering' when they have no actual evidence to refute something but wan't to ignore it or self-justify something.

On the other thread on coronavirus and travel plans, there is a post about people who chose to get on a cruise ship this week going to Asia. There justification is they didn't want to lose their money by cancelling and they 'thought things would be OK'. So they self-justified going and you can easily see how they might say it is just 'fear mongering' when they say they 'thought things would be OK.'

Fear mongering is saying if you stand under a tree in a lightning storm you WILL be struck by lightning. Self-justification is saying, there is a .01% chance you will get struck by lightning, so it's OK to go and stand there. Prudent is not standing under a tree in a lightning storm.


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> Anyone who relies on the mainstream media for information is an idiot in my opinion. Nor would I rely on anything any public health organization has to say either. The only organization I will listen to is the WHO.
> 
> What WHO is saying at present is that they do NOT know how reliable the numbers from China are.
> They do NOT know how it is transmitted.
> They do NOT know what the mortality rate is.
> They do NOT know when a vaccine might be available but the most reliable estimates are 18 months from now.
> They rate the risk as HIGH globally.


 .... ???? 

So at this point, what do they know other than it's a HIGH risk globally? WHO = World Health Organization ... isn't that a health organization for the "public", only on a globally level?


----------



## Beaver101

jargey3000 said:


> ....well, looks like we're in good hands....
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-china-who-bruce-aylward-1.5459615


 ... I had wanted to hurrah your good news this but then have my doubts after reading LTA's post#120 and the last parts of that article in your link:



> ...
> But a quicker and more effective response to the epidemic from WHO would have resulted in far fewer deaths, said Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University in New York, at the time.
> *
> "I personally would have no confidence that the same team at WHO would be able to handle the next international outbreak*," Redlener told the Associated Press.
> *
> "We've already seen what the old leadership at WHO has been able to do, so I don't know why we would expect them to be able to right themselves.*"


So who do we (the world) listen to?


----------



## sags

_So who do we (the world) listen to? _

There is so much conflicting information from all the different authorities that the public doesn't know who to listen to.

WHO has bungled this from the start. They wasted precious time diddling around deciding if this flu outbreak was important enough to take global action.

The head of WHO looks incompetent and should be replaced and a team of global experts should be created that can inform the public in a trustworthy manner.

Thus far, social media has been more forthright and honest that government/health authorities. It was social media that "outed" the virus in the first place.

I wonder if the lack of information to the public isn't that they don't know, but that they DO know and don't want to create panic by disclosing the information.

The most troubling information to me is that people under strict quarantine on the ship in Japan are becoming infected. How does that happen ?


----------



## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> .... ????
> 
> So at this point, what do they know other than it's a HIGH risk globally? WHO = World Health Organization ... isn't that a health organization for the "public", only on a globally level?


That's the point Beaver101, they don't KNOW anything yet really. They don't trust the data China has provided so far. Today China reported a 'spike' of 15,000 new cases and 250 more deaths. WHO doctors now on the ground in China are raising questions about the diagnostic processes being used and their reliability. If you cannot rely on the 'raw data' being provided, you cannot extrapolate from that data to come up with any kind of conclusions about anything. How contagious is it, how deadly is it, who knows?

The World Health Organization is a 'public' organization on a global level, yes. They are in my opinion the most trustworthy health organization to listen to. But they are only as good at forecasting the risks, as the reliability of the data they have to work with allows them to be. They are the least influenced of all public health organizations by politics and economics. But they are NOT 100% immune to outside pressure and that is to a large extent what the quote by Dr. Redlener you responded to from the link provided by jargey3000 is partly about. They did not declare an emergency soon enough. There is enormous political and economic pressure on any health organization in situations such as this. 

Take a look at our own Canadian government website. They are still saying the coronavirus outbreak is 'limited to China.' Really?
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-hea...us-infection/latest-travel-health-advice.html

Take a look at their 'Travel Advisories' page. It says 'avoid non-essential travel to China.' It does not say, 'avoid all travel' which is the highest warning they can issue. https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/advisories


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> _So who do we (the world) listen to? _
> 
> There is so much conflicting information from all the different authorities that the public doesn't know who to listen to.
> 
> WHO has bungled this from the start. They wasted precious time diddling around deciding if this flu outbreak was important enough to take global action.
> 
> The head of WHO looks incompetent and should be replaced and a team of global experts should be created that can inform the public in a trustworthy manner.
> 
> Thus far, social media has been more forthright and honest that government/health authorities. It was social media that "outed" the virus in the first place.
> 
> I wonder if the lack of information to the public isn't that they don't know, but that they DO know and don't want to create panic by disclosing the information.
> 
> The most troubling information to me is that people under strict quarantine on the ship in Japan are becoming infected. How does that happen ?


The ship is not a hospital sags and so it is impossible to provide a sterile environment. Further complicating it, is that they do not know how the virus is transmitted. So while they take all the precautions they can, trying to avoid transmission, it isn't 100% given the environment. What I am keeping an eye on is what happens in Trenton with those quarantined there. Do cases turn up, is it transmitted to others? 

Panic is one reason why governments will be reluctant to increase their warning levels. So are politics and economics. There is always huge pressure to keep a lid on things. But in this case, I don't think it is a question of them knowing and not telling. They really don't know enough yet.


----------



## lonewolf :)

China should be the best in the world with numbers no other country has that many fingers & toes


----------



## Eclectic12

Longtimeago said:


> The ship is not a hospital sags and so it is impossible to provide a sterile environment. Further complicating it, is that they do not know how the virus is transmitted. So while they take all the precautions they can, trying to avoid transmission, it isn't 100% given the environment ...


Add in that the cabins aren't all that big with people having to stay in them most of the time. 





Longtimeago said:


> ... What I am keeping an eye on is what happens in Trenton with those quarantined there. Do cases turn up, is it transmitted to others?


It is a small sample size of about four hundred people. Until a case does turn up there, it is doubtful anything will be known about transmission.

With those quarantined likely having more room and more ability to be separate versus the cruise ship quarantine folks being stuck in a small space, exposed to whatever the ventilation system brings in, the odds of transmission seem a lot lower. Knowing more about how it is spread would be better though.


Cheers


----------



## sags

Virus live tracker. The number of new cases is exploding. Deaths rising. Full recovery numbers are very slow.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


----------



## doctrine

Actually, if you're basing it on the numbers, only 2600 new cases today. There was more growth two weeks ago. That is despite the relaxation in standards a few days ago. Deaths are coming in, but deaths are a lagging indicator here, up to 2 weeks after confirmed infected. The peak of new infections may already be past. This is all settling down and in another week or two will start to be old news, it's already fallen off most headlines now this week, next week it will be page 2, then page 5, then poof.


----------



## james4beach

News headlines aren't the important part. People can lose interest but the real question remains, will this virus linger and keep infecting (and killing) people?

It's good news that very few deaths have happened outside of China but I think it's still too early to tell how this plays out.


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> News headlines aren't the important part. People can lose interest but the real question remains, will this virus linger and keep infecting (and killing) people?
> 
> It's good news that very few deaths have happened outside of China but I think it's still too early to tell how this plays out.


I agree, they don't KNOW much of anything at this point. That the fickle public and media with their short attention spans might choose to ignore it is meaningless. Just how doctrine sees it as 'settling down' is beyond my comprehension. If the media relegate it to page 5, that means it isn't happening?


----------



## james4beach

Apparently, back in 2018, Trump fired the entire pandemic response chain of command! Part of his effort to purge government of Obama's people
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/3...ited-states-public-health-emergency-response/



> For the United States, the answers are especially worrying because the government has intentionally rendered itself incapable. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion. If the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it is—not just for the public but for the government itself, which largely finds itself in the dark.


This is really dangerous. Trump and his supporters think it's great that they are 'tearing apart government' but they are losing key expertise, and key capabilities while doing so.


----------



## sags

Don't worry. Trump says the virus will run away when the warmer weather comes.

I wouldn't be surprised if he hasn't asked the Pentagon if he could drop a nuclear bomb on the virus and blow it up.

Trump has an itchy trigger finger..........don't you know.


----------



## sags

A Japanese couple returned to Japan from Hawaii and were reported infected.

Health authorities in Hawaii are trying to track down everyone who came into contact with the couple during their vacation in Hawaii and flying back and forth.

The CDC says the virus will inevitably spread......and it is.


----------



## Eder

Trump ate Bat Soup! boom


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> A Japanese couple returned to Japan from Hawaii and were reported infected.
> 
> Health authorities in Hawaii are trying to track down everyone who came into contact with the couple during their vacation in Hawaii and flying back and forth.
> 
> The CDC says the virus will inevitably spread......and it is.


This couple could as easily have been staying in any hotel, anywhere in the world. Maybe the one you plan on going to next week.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation...-a-tourist-couple-falls-ill-with-coronavirus/


----------



## sags

Iran says they have 95 confirmed infections and 15 have died.

If the ratio is 15 deaths to 100 infections, that is a death rate of 15%.

Either the death rate is a lot higher than we think or Iran is underestimating the number of cases they have.

The guy in charge of calming the public goes on a news conference and appears sick. He is later confirmed with the virus.

Everyone at the news conference was exposed to the virus.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/corona...d-19-1.5474869


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> Iran says they have 95 confirmed infections and 15 have died.
> 
> If the ratio is 15 deaths to 100 infections, that is a death rate of 15%.
> 
> Either the death rate is a lot higher than we think or Iran is underestimating the number of cases they have.
> 
> The guy in charge of calming the public goes on a news conference and appears sick. He is later confirmed with the virus.
> 
> Everyone at the news conference was exposed to the virus.
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/corona...d-19-1.5474869


This will get worse before it gets better. The CDC is warning people that daily routines may be impacted (school closings, daycares, telecommuting). I think most people are getting infected who have had direct contact Themselves with China. The next phase will be when people who did not go to China start transmitting the disease.


----------



## james4beach

San Francisco just declared a state of emergency


----------



## Eclectic12

Seems more about getting access to state and local funds as well as having more powers to redirect employees.
There's zero SF originated cases and three treated in hospital cases reported so far.

The San Diego county declaration of a state of emergency back on Valentines day also identified that access to resources motivated it where, “Let us be clear, this does not mean there is any increased risk to the general public, in fact it is quite the opposite,” county health officer Dr. Wilma Wooten said.


Cheers


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> *San Francisco* just declared a state of emergency


 ... so are troops gonna be deployed to fight the viruses? how about the lootings? BIG YAWN.


----------



## ian

We have another three weeks or so of travel in Mexico. We have made tentative plans for Southern Europe in Sept/Oct but we will wait until late August to make the final decision and pull the trigger on any firm travel commitments. Too early to consider it now.


----------



## Longtimeago

*Covid-19 Transparency*

There is little doubt at this point that the Covid-19 virus is not being contained and we are going to see more cases everywhere. It is no longer a case of IF, it is only a question of WHEN. Italy jumped from 220 cases yesterday to 320 cases today. Four more countries have reported their first cases. Iran continues to show increases in cases and continues to 'export' cases to other countries as does Italy. It's not just spreading from China any more. 

What ISN'T happening here in Canada is providing the public with enough transparency and information to help guide us on what to expect. Neither our public health officials nor our 'news' media are presenting a clear picture at all.

Today a new case of a 60 year old woman who had travelled from Iran was reported. She showed up at a Toronto hospital emergency room as did another 20 year old woman on Friday. But that is basically all they tell us. They do not say for example that one of them walked through Toronto Airport on Friday between 4-5pm when you were there picking someone up. If they did that, you would at least know to watch yourself for symptoms.

These women walked in to Emergency which means they did expose other people there and staff. What if anything are our hospitals doing to protect the public from this happening? In the UK for example, hospitals are setting up separate entrances or at least clear 'do not cross this line' divisions in Emergency for those walking in the door. What are our hospitals doing? Our public health officials and the news media are not telling us anything.

San Francisco's Mayor has declared a 'state of emergency' as has San Diego. Why have they done this, so that specific protocols and funding come into play in anticipation of an outbreak. In other words they are being PROACTIVE rather than waiting to react. What are cities in Canada doing? Toronto's Mayor is going around saying, the risk is low, no reason to panic. It isn't about panicking, it is about preparing. The Mayor of San Francisco no doubt knows declaring an emergency will hurt tourism, so does Toronto's Mayor but their priorities obviously differ. 

In Switzerland they have just had their first case test positive. But even before that first case, their major supermarket chains (Migros, Coop) have put in place 'crisis management teams' and plans as to how they will deal with staff shortages to fill the shelves, panic buying by customers, etc. What plans do our major supermarkets have in place for these issues? Any? Again, we don't know, our sources of information are not telling us anything. Do you have enough food in your house to go for a couple of weeks without having to shop for more? What will you do if your supermarket is closed due to shortage of staff or empty shelves? In Switzerland, the federal government has already recommended that households stock up on non-perishable foods in preparation.

In areas where local transmission is obviously taking place, schools are being closed. Do you have a plan to deal with that if your children's school is closed? What if a case is reported in your child's school and you are told to self-quarantine your child and yourself? Are you prepared to cope with that? In Austria an entire apartment complex has been quarantined after a resident tested positive. If you live in a high rise condo, are you ready to be quarantined?

We are not being given enough information about what steps are being taken and what steps we need to take to prepare ourselves. Transparency is sorely lacking and that is what in fact leads to panic when the '**** hits the fan'. I see more concern about the ECONOMY and how it is going to be affected than I do concern about keeping people safe. 

There is a difference between being an 'alarmist' and being alarmed. This is something to be alarmed about and to be prepared for. IF we were to get really lucky and 'dodge the bullet', being prepared will have done no harm. But if we are not prepared and do not dodge the bullet, it will do a lot of harm. The time to prepare for a pandemic is not AFTER it has been declared.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Isn't that thread's title (abit?) oxymoronic? 

Didn't you post earlier that you were/would follow the WHO's advisories and perhaps their advice on pandemic preparedness? 

Anyhow, we did get some advice from Canada's Chief Medical Officer Dr. T. Tam and Ottawa's Top Health Officer Dr. V. Etches and this is their advice (thus far):



> As novel coronavirus outbreaks spread across a growing list of countries, Canadians are being warned to prepare for a possible pandemic.
> 
> In a shift from previous messages, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Theresa Tam acknowledged Monday that Canada may no longer be able to contain and limit the virus if it continues to spread around the world. She said governments, businesses and individuals should prepare for an outbreak or pandemic.
> 
> “We are coming to similar conclusions,” agreed Dr. Vera Etches, the City of Ottawa’s top health officer, on Monday. “It looks like it is going to be more and more difficult to contain this virus and it may well evolve into a pandemic. That would change the efforts to contain every last case and contact.”
> 
> *Etches said people can take steps now, at home and at work, to prepare.
> *
> Some of those steps include stocking up on needed prescriptions ahead of time so there is no need to do so during a possible pandemic. *She also recommended people stock up on non-perishable food.* ...


 ... her advice to stock up on food is too funny. Sounds like a world war is coming.


Or here's the link (credit to poster hp75):

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/canadians-being-told-to-prepare-for-a-possible-novel-coronavirus-pandemic


----------



## MrMatt

Declaring an emergency to be proactive is dumb.
1. They have a very small number of cases. It isn't an emergency.
2. It desensitizes the public from real emergencies. Remember the boy who cried wolf?

Myself, I'm just making sure I'm ready if the situation gets worse. 

Personally I stopped listening to weather warnings and such. It's winter it snows. If I'm driving more than 15 mins from my house I put a flashlight, boots, hat and thick gloves in my car. 

The government has an vested interest in infantilising the people and making us totally dependent on them.
The government needs to treat us like adults, and people need to grow up and take some responsibility for themselves.


----------



## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Isn't that thread's title (abit?) oxymoronic?
> 
> Didn't you post earlier that you were/would follow the WHO's advisories and perhaps their advice on pandemic preparedness?
> 
> Anyhow, we did get some advice from Canada's Chief Medical Officer Dr. T. Tam and Ottawa's Top Health Officer Dr. V. Etches and this is their advice (thus far):
> 
> ... her advice to stock up on food is too funny. Sounds like a world war is coming.
> 
> 
> Or here's the link (credit to poster hp75):
> 
> https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/canadians-being-told-to-prepare-for-a-possible-novel-coronavirus-pandemic


Yes Dr. Tam has finally updated the advice to prepare. She did so on Monday, this is Wednesday and I still have not seen one TV News station telling people to prepare as per her guidelines. 

There is nothing funny about the advice to stock up on non-perishable food. The supply chain to supermarkets is very susceptible to interruption. Supermarkets stock up every 3 days and any interruption results in empty shelves. Panic buying by the public can strip shelves in a couple of hours. Employees not showing up to work can stop the supply flow. Or you may just not want to risk going into a supermarket where you will come in contact with multiple people. Most people don't realize just how fragile the food supply is. If that flow is interrupted for any reason, it does not take long at all for most people's fridge and pantry to be empty.


----------



## MrMatt

Supply chain is very brittle.
Look at the canned goods from Asia, or all the fresh produce from Mexico or further. 
A single stoppage or slowdown can be dramatic.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eclectic12 said:


> Seems more about getting access to state and local funds as well as having more powers to redirect employees.
> There's zero SF originated cases and three treated in hospital cases reported so far.
> 
> The San Diego county declaration of a state of emergency back on Valentines day also identified that access to resources motivated it where, “Let us be clear, this does not mean there is any increased risk to the general public, in fact it is quite the opposite,” county health officer Dr. Wilma Wooten said.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Yes it allows them to bring into play protocols and funds in PREPARATION for an outbreak. Being proactive rather than waiting to react. 

The question to ask ourselves is why we are not doing the same, we do have similar protocols and funding that comes into play when an emergency is declared. The answer to that question is ECONOMICS. If Toronto or anywhere else's mayor declares a public emergency, it will affect the economy in negative ways. Tourism is an obvious example. What San Francisco's Mayor is doing is putting public safety ahead of negative economic impact, as she should. But not everyone is prioritizing in that same way obviously.

It's not about panicking or trying to cause a panic, it's about avoiding a panic down the line when the virus does spread. 

Meanwhile you get people like Beaver101 here, saying it's all a big yawn and making inane comments about deploying troops.


----------



## Eclectic12

Depends on whether one takes away from "state of emergency declared" as meaning there has been a massive outbreak. Most people are used to states of emergency being declared in the middle of a sizeable event.


Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Yes it allows them to bring into play protocols and funds in PREPARATION for an outbreak. Being proactive rather than waiting to react.
> 
> The question to ask ourselves is why we are not doing the same, we do have similar protocols and funding that comes into play when an emergency is declared. The answer to that question is ECONOMICS. If Toronto or anywhere else's mayor declares a public emergency, it will affect the economy in negative ways. Tourism is an obvious example. What San Francisco's Mayor is doing is putting public safety ahead of negative economic impact, as she should. But not everyone is prioritizing in that same way obviously.
> 
> It's not about panicking or trying to cause a panic, it's about avoiding a panic down the line when the virus does spread.
> 
> Meanwhile you get people like Beaver101 here, saying it's all a big yawn and making inane comments about deploying troops.



The real question is, as this was a predicted and expected situation, why aren't the protocols already in place?

What new protocols could they implement, that should not have been implemented 6 months ago.


----------



## james4beach

Not a big yawn... In fact I think that if we ever get a cluster of deaths in Canada, there could easily be shortages in the stores as people panic and strip the shelves of food & essentials.

You have to think about human psychology. This is already the lowest (darkest) time of the year in the northern hemisphere. People are worn out by winter, physically and psychologically. Depression and bad moods are widespread, as they are every Dec/Jan/Feb... with Feb probably being the worst.

A "virus" panic at this point can really get out of hand. This isn't like hearing a scary news story on a sunny hot July day.


----------



## Eder

Beaver101 said:


> ... so are troops gonna be deployed to fight the viruses? how about the lootings? BIG YAWN.


I don't doubt its a Californian thing. Here in Hawaii there has been emergency facilities, airport monitoring/restrictions, and public awareness for a month. Sounds like we are doing a lot more than fruitcake land or Ottawa for that matter.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> Not a big yawn... *In fact I think that if we ever get a cluster of deaths in Canada, there could easily be shortages in the stores as people panic and strip the shelves of food & essentials.*


 ... simple inane question: was there a shortage of food during the SARS crisis? I don't recall there was in Toronto, not sure about elsewhere like Ottawa or a smaller town. And I do recall there were 44 deaths in Toronto from SARS.



> You have to think about human psychology. This is already the lowest (darkest) time of the year in the northern hemisphere. People are worn out by winter, physically and psychologically. Depression and bad moods are widespread, as they are every Dec/Jan/Feb... with Feb probably being the worst.
> 
> A "virus" panic at this point can really get out of hand. This isn't like hearing a scary news story on a sunny hot July day.


 ... IMO, I think it is kind of late to "alarm" the public when it is on a global scale. Besides, what good will hitting the panic-button do for the population? Now do we start wearing masks? Raid the super-markets and stock up, skip school and work and bunker down? 


Actually, at this point, I think the best action is for everyone, and I mean everybody, *including the real (and fake) "experts"* should self-quarantine and stop sharing their germs. Otherwise, get back to work with business as usual.


----------



## sags

Ironic that in a pandemic situation, some people who stay home from their work or keep kids out of school, will expect other people to stock grocery shelves or care for the sick.

I wouldn't want to count on that.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> [... simple inane question: was there a shortage of food during the SARS crisis? I don't recall there was in Toronto, not sure about the case elsewhere like Ottawa or a smaller town.


This isn't SARS. Which was mostly a voluntary quarantine of symptomatic people. 
It's the risk of a quarantine for 2-3 weeks of asymptomatic people. And people will be less likely to comply if they have no symptoms, because they will feel "im not the sick one"


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> *This isn't SARS. *Which was mostly a voluntary quarantine of symptomatic people.
> It's the risk of a quarantine for 2-3 weeks of asymptomatic people. And people will be less likely to comply if they have no symptoms, because they will feel "im not the sick one"


 ... exactly as the medical experts (including WHO) haven't even got this virus' behaviour all figured out. Otherwise how do you explain for the mysterious cluster in Iran which was nowhere near the infectious locations or having coming in contact (or knowledge thereof) with those that were. Maybe the entire globe had already been infected with this latent virus and now it has evolved/mutated to be deadlier. Afterall, it is related to the "flu" virus which has been on this globe for xxx years?


----------



## Beaver101

Eclectic12 said:


> *Seems more about getting access to state and local funds as well as having more powers to redirect employees*.
> There's zero SF originated cases and three treated in hospital cases reported so far.
> 
> The San Diego county declaration of a state of emergency back on Valentines day also identified that access to resources motivated it where, “Let us be clear, this does not mean there is any increased risk to the general public, in fact it is quite the opposite,” county health officer Dr. Wilma Wooten said.
> 
> 
> Cheers


 ... same thought here.


----------



## sags

The Last Canadian.

I read this book when I was a young man in 1974. It is written by the former editor of our local newspaper, William C. Heine.

Interesting book......perhaps a little prophetic. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Canadian


----------



## Beaver101

Eder said:


> I don't doubt its a Californian thing. *Here in Hawaii there has been emergency facilities, airport monitoring/restrictions, and public awareness for a month. *Sounds like we are doing a lot more than fruitcake land or Ottawa for that matter.


 ... no doubt. I think the very first restriction (for Canada) should have been "stringent" screenings at the airport once the alarm had sounded. Too late now ... AC is still flying all around the world (other than China) carrying infected seats, toilets, and cabin air in their planes.


----------



## Eclectic12

Longtimeago said:


> Yes Dr. Tam has finally updated the advice to prepare. She did so on Monday, this is Wednesday and I still have not seen one TV News station telling people to prepare as per her guidelines ...


Strange as I saw the comment yesterday at about 11am.

There's also this article in the NP from early yesterday as well ... https://nationalpost.com/diseases-a...emic/wcm/759a4503-0791-4f01-afcc-eea6d4866322


Cheers


----------



## Plugging Along

Longtimeago said:


> Yes it allows them to bring into play protocols and funds in PREPARATION for an outbreak. Being proactive rather than waiting to react.
> 
> The question to ask ourselves is why we are not doing the same, we do have similar protocols and funding that comes into play when an emergency is declared. The answer to that question is ECONOMICS. If Toronto or anywhere else's mayor declares a public emergency, it will affect the economy in negative ways. Tourism is an obvious example. What San Francisco's Mayor is doing is putting public safety ahead of negative economic impact, as she should. But not everyone is prioritizing in that same way obviously.
> 
> It's not about panicking or trying to cause a panic, it's about avoiding a panic down the line when the virus does spread.
> 
> Meanwhile you get people like Beaver101 here, saying it's all a big yawn and making inane comments about deploying troops.


The difference between a 'State of Emergency' in the US and in Canada, is that in the US in order to access the funds to start preparing they need to make the declaration. The SFO mayor has already said that there is no addition risk, this is a funding move. In Canada, there is not the same protocol. Municipalities and the branches of government have already started preparing. I know in my municipality, the area responsible for this has been taking precautions and developing plans in case the virus arrives in our city. I can assure you behind the scenes there is a lot of work in my city that is going on, and they do not need to cause panic by declaring there is an emergency. There is no emergency any where in Canada at this moment. 

You are correct, they could be one. I have seen my City's emergency response plans first hand and am confident they are not just sitting on their butts waiting. Right now, as a Canadian, there is not much one can do other than wash their hands frequently. They could perhaps avoid large crowds and travel places which will reduce the increase of spread. We are not at the point - yet of stopping major events or having a world wide travel ban.


----------



## Plugging Along

james4beach said:


> Not a big yawn... In fact I think that if we ever get a cluster of deaths in Canada, there could easily be shortages in the stores as people panic and strip the shelves of food & essentials.
> 
> You have to think about human psychology. This is already the lowest (darkest) time of the year in the northern hemisphere. People are worn out by winter, physically and psychologically. Depression and bad moods are widespread, as they are every Dec/Jan/Feb... with Feb probably being the worst.
> 
> A "virus" panic at this point can really get out of hand. This isn't like hearing a scary news story on a sunny hot July day.


Having been through some major disasters, I can say that people can be their worst enemy through irrational panic. It won't just be the virus that kills people, it will be people doing stupid things in a panic. It is during times of panic that humanities worst traits come out. People start to hoard and do things at the expense of others. 

For us, we generally have an 'emergency' supply and plan. We always have lots of water, water purifiers, enough for weeks, and source of energy among other things. During this unsettling time of unknown, we are just making sure we are well stocked in our staples and taking slightly extra care.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Now, that's what a logical, sensible and responsible citizen (including "public" health) would have done in the first place! Thanks PA for summarizing it so succinctly.


----------



## Plugging Along

Longtimeago said:


> What ISN'T happening here in Canada is providing the public with enough transparency and information to help guide us on what to expect. Neither our public health officials nor our 'news' media are presenting a clear picture at all...
> 
> We are not being given enough information about what steps are being taken and what steps we need to take to prepare ourselves. Transparency is sorely lacking and that is what in fact leads to panic when the '**** hits the fan'. I see more concern about the ECONOMY and how it is going to be affected than I do concern about keeping people safe.
> 
> There is a difference between being an 'alarmist' and being alarmed. This is something to be alarmed about and to be prepared for. IF we were to get really lucky and 'dodge the bullet', being prepared will have done no harm. But if we are not prepared and do not dodge the bullet, it will do a lot of harm. The time to prepare for a pandemic is not AFTER it has been declared.


After being in several major disasters, we just always have a plan B, C, and D. Right now the precautions are no different than what our City and province recommends for emergency response. There are kit lists available on line for any emergency that recommend at least 72 hours of supplies. For Corona add more hand washing and I have added additional provisions. We have enough food and water to last us a month easily at any given time, so it's not a big deal for us. I know my city does not have to panic people by declaring an emergency but can still be proactive. 




> Today a new case of a 60 year old woman who had travelled from Iran was reported. She showed up at a Toronto hospital emergency room as did another 20 year old woman on Friday. But that is basically all they tell us. They do not say for example that one of them walked through Toronto Airport on Friday between 4-5pm when you were there picking someone up. If they did that, you would at least know to watch yourself for symptoms.
> 
> These women walked in to Emergency which means they did expose other people there and staff. What if anything are our hospitals doing to protect the public from this happening? In the UK for example, hospitals are setting up separate entrances or at least clear 'do not cross this line' divisions in Emergency for those walking in the door. What are our hospitals doing? Our public health officials and the news media are not telling us anything.


Definitely agree that if cases are found, they should notify the public of the itinerary. We fortunately do not have any cases in my area, but I know where there measles cases they did tell everyone where the people were located. I had to take my child to emergency the other day, they had masks right outside of the hospital asking people to put it on if they had any symptoms or suspected symptoms or had been exposed to any one with any symptoms. The first things they asked us were all Coronavirus related (we were in for a concussion). This seems to be standard in my City, I have been to 3 hospitals in my City since corona came out and all 3 had the same questions and screening. 




> San Francisco's Mayor has declared a 'state of emergency' as has San Diego. Why have they done this, so that specific protocols and funding come into play in anticipation of an outbreak. In other words they are being PROACTIVE rather than waiting to react. What are cities in Canada doing? Toronto's Mayor is going around saying, the risk is low, no reason to panic. It isn't about panicking, it is about preparing. The Mayor of San Francisco no doubt knows declaring an emergency will hurt tourism, so does Toronto's Mayor but their priorities obviously differ.


I already mentioned that US is different in their funding. I know my City is already doing things to prepare behind the scenes. 



> In Switzerland they have just had their first case test positive. But even before that first case, their major supermarket chains (Migros, Coop) have put in place 'crisis management teams' and plans as to how they will deal with staff shortages to fill the shelves, panic buying by customers, etc. What plans do our major supermarkets have in place for these issues? Any? Again, we don't know, our sources of information are not telling us anything. Do you have enough food in your house to go for a couple of weeks without having to shop for more? What will you do if your supermarket is closed due to shortage of staff or empty shelves? In Switzerland, the federal government has already recommended that households stock up on non-perishable foods in preparation
> 
> In areas where local transmission is obviously taking place, schools are being closed. Do you have a plan to deal with that if your children's school is closed? What if a case is reported in your child's school and you are told to self-quarantine your child and yourself? Are you prepared to cope with that? In Austria an entire apartment complex has been quarantined after a resident tested positive. If you live in a high rise condo, are you ready to be quarantined?


People panic all the time, we are our worst enemies. In my families case, we could probably self quarantine for 2 or 3 months for our food and water supplies. We would probably go a little stir crazy but could do it. We have an emergency kit list in our garage that we can grab and go to our cabin (which have another kit there), and we would figure it out. Hopefully, the internet and wifi doesn't get infected with Coronavirus cause that what would kill my kids and tech spouse.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... no doubt. I think the very first restriction (for Canada) should have been "stringent" screenings at the airport once the alarm had sounded. Too late now ... AC is still flying all around the world (other than China) carrying infected seats, toilets, and cabin air in their planes.


We should ALWAYS have stringent screenings for communicable dieseases.
Secondly, current information says such screenings would be ineffective against COVID-19.


Regarding the mysterious cluster in Iran, it's not particularly mysterious if you consider the relationship and politics.
I'd expect that there are a large number of "covert" meetings between various officials.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> We should ALWAYS have stringent screenings for communicable dieseases.
> Secondly, current information says such screenings would be ineffective against COVID-19.


 ...maybe this is an opportunity for airports to upgrade their screening method(s)? 




> Regarding the mysterious cluster in Iran, it's not particularly mysterious if you consider the relationship and politics.
> I'd expect that there are a large number of "covert" meetings between various officials.


 ... possibly but then the WHO "experts" didn't mention that. We can only go by the "news" (real and fake). 



Look at the secret-sauce stats (supposedly official) and it says Russia has only known 3 cases as with India (yesterday). Would you believe that?


----------



## Eclectic12

Beaver101 said:


> ... Otherwise how do you explain for the mysterious cluster in Iran which was nowhere near the infectious locations or having coming in contact (or knowledge thereof) with those that were.


The city of Qom had a parliamentarian saying they had fifty cases at pretty much the same time as the official line was that there were none. It's population is about 1 million where it receives 20 million visitors. Some are there for business, a lot are Muslim pilgrims from all over the world and there's at least a couple of hundred Shia Muslim clerical students that are believe to be Chinese nationals.

China has backed off due to the US getting out of the treaty but there's likely a lot of Chinese business interests still there, considering Chinese companies were happily talking about how setting up a production line in Iran was much cheaper there than other parts of the world.


Basically, it seems more likely that it came from China or a traveler but the denial until there was no choice to acknowledge it may be what has kept the source from being found.


Keep in mind despite the cases and deaths, there are no Iranian cities reported to be in quarantine where the president talks about how the virus is "a weapon at the hands of our enemies". Despite calls by the health officials for clerics to limit visitors to Qom aka ground zero, pilgrimages as well as visits continue as usual. Some shrines are being disinfected but with the throngs touching them, it seems doubtful it is effective.


Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ...maybe this is an opportunity for airports to upgrade their screening method(s)?
> 
> 
> ... possibly but then the WHO "experts" didn't mention that. We can only go by the "news" (real and fake).
> 
> 
> 
> Look at the secret-sauce stats (supposedly official) and it says Russia has only known 3 cases as with India (yesterday). Would you believe that?


Regarding COVID 19, upgrading screening doesn't make sense.

It's communicable well before people are symptomatic, that's the problem. We basically don't have a screening method of any type that works.


----------



## Synergy

MrMatt said:


> Regarding COVID 19, upgrading screening doesn't make sense.
> 
> It's communicable well before people are symptomatic, that's the problem. We basically don't have a screening method of any type that works.


Screening is important. You're not very contagious until shortly before symptoms begin. It's the coughing, sneezing, etc. which really start to spread the infected particles around. The more symptomatic you are the more likely you'll be spreading the love around.


----------



## MrMatt

Synergy said:


> Screening is important. You're not very contagious until shortly before symptoms begin. It's the coughing, sneezing, etc. which really start to spread the infected particles around. The more symptomatic you are the more likely you'll be spreading the love around.


Sure you are more contagious when you're coughing and spreading more.
But the data suggests you're contagious before then, and with such a long period before you're symptomatic it's a problem.


----------



## sags

Some people are contagious and never show symptoms.

This little virus is a sneaky little peckerhead. It is mutating a little every time it passes from one person to another, in an attempt to avoid eradication. 

How the heck does it know to do that ? These viruses only have 1 goal in their miserable lives...to survive. For that they need a host....and that be us.


----------



## sags

At least Trump doesn't think this virus is so bad. He says other viruses were worse when people "disintegrated"......poof, and they they were.......gone.


----------



## Synergy

MrMatt said:


> Sure you are more contagious when you're coughing and spreading more.
> But the data suggests you're contagious before then, and with such a long period before you're symptomatic it's a problem.


Yes, one is contagious during the incubation period but the disease itself is not highly transmissible during this time.

Symptoms or not everyone should be taking extra care during cold and flu season. Problem is they don't. No matter how many time you tell someone they still sit at their contaminated workstations with unwashed hands eating finger foods, etc. This is what is really scary, trusting the public to do the right thing.


----------



## Synergy

sags said:


> Some people are contagious and never show symptoms.
> 
> This little virus is a sneaky little peckerhead. It is mutating a little every time it passes from one person to another, in an attempt to avoid eradication.
> 
> How the heck does it know to do that ? These viruses only have 1 goal in their miserable lives...to survive. For that they need a host....and that be us.


Yes, very crafty little buggers.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> How the heck does it know to do that ? These viruses only have 1 goal in their miserable lives...to survive. For that they need a host....and that be us.


We'd all better hope it doesn't mutate much. The current virus _does not_ appear to be particularly deadly and many infected people are simply staying at home to recover. There are likely far more cases than are reported because it's so mild for most people, they just rest it off on their own and never go to a doctor.

Viruses are incredible creatures. It's debated whether they are even "alive" since they just contain some lengths of DNA. They really can't do anything (or reproduce) on their own. Instead they hijack other living cells and get those stupid cells to replicate *their* genetic material.

Animal and human DNA has a double helix; this structure is quite strong and resilient to mutations. We are amazing creations. As I understand it, the double helix (DNA) structure includes abilities to correct the codes when duplicated.

Many viruses (like influenza) use RNA structures instead of DNA. The RNA is a simpler molecular structure, and I think it lacks the ability to check copying integrity as well as DNA.

As a result, RNA viruses mutate far faster than DNA itself mutates. Which has disastrous results for successful viruses like influenza.

https://sciencing.com/virus-dna-4058.html



> Mutation rates in RNA viruses are important because these viruses cause a terrible toll in terms of human death and disease. The flu and HIV, for example, are caused by viruses with RNA-based genomes. The high mutation rate means that they can rapidly evolve resistance to new drugs. Any given population of these viruses is very genetically diverse. This makes it very difficult for scientists to develop vaccines for the flu, for example. Because the influenza virus genome is diverse, scientists must often combine vaccines for several viral strains. And, because the flu virus genome changes constantly, vaccines that are effective during one flu season might be ineffective the next.


----------



## james4beach

Currently at a coffee shop. A person here told me that their friend traveled from Taiwan back to Manitoba, and has been tested and is currently quarantined for COVID-19 suspicion - waiting for test results. I haven't seen this reported in the news; they are still saying no cases in MB.

I guess it means no 100% certain cases in MB. But I wonder how many people around us are quarantined... apparently more than I thought.


----------



## MrMatt

Synergy said:


> Yes, one is contagious during the incubation period but the disease itself is not highly transmissible during this time.
> 
> Symptoms or not everyone should be taking extra care during cold and flu season. Problem is they don't. No matter how many time you tell someone they still sit at their contaminated workstations with unwashed hands eating finger foods, etc. This is what is really scary, trusting the public to do the right thing.


They believe it is not "highly transmissible".
But they know that these people are spreading it, and they have confirmed several hundred asymptomatic carriers.

The thing is, if you're not sick, and the people around you aren't sick, how careful are you?
How likely are you going to put up with a quarantine if neither you, or anyone around you appear sick.

Also with such a long incubation period, the quarantines are going to be very hard on people, which is why they're not quarantining everyone.


----------



## james4beach

Longtimeago said:


> What ISN'T happening here in Canada is providing the public with enough transparency and information to help guide us on what to expect. Neither our public health officials nor our 'news' media are presenting a clear picture at all.


I gave an example in this other thread: https://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/...-Coronavirus?p=2073832&viewfull=1#post2073832

The woman told me about an apparent COVID-19 case in my province even though there is no report of this in the general stats. I haven't seen it in the news.

When telling me about this friend who's currently under quarantine, she also said that the health officials didn't seem to have a protocol for testing. He had arrived from Taiwan with a fever and feeling quite sick. Being careful and responsible, he went to the hospital. First the hospital told him to go home without doing any tests. Later, they called him back for some tests, then put him into quarantine. He's now in quarantine in my city.

_This has not been in the news_. The public perception in my city is that there are no cases of COVID-19 and we haven't been "hit" by it yet.

Now to be fair, Taiwan doesn't have a high infection count, and only has 1 death, so it might simply be that coming from Taiwan with a fever is considered no worse than coming from the USA with a fever. We wouldn't get all crazy if someone flies in from Michigan and has a fever, would we?

But the story does make me think that our health care system may not have great procedures in place yet, regarding testing anyway.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Currently at a coffee shop. A person here told me that their friend traveled from Taiwan back to Manitoba, and has been tested and is currently quarantined for COVID-19 suspicion - waiting for test results. I haven't seen this reported in the news; they are still saying no cases in MB.
> 
> I guess it means no 100% certain cases in MB. But I wonder how many people around us are quarantined... apparently more than I thought.


Just under 2 dozen people were tested according to news.gov.mv.ca.

https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=46859


I'm glad at the amount of information being shared.


----------



## sags

I watched the Trump news conference and honestly......it didn't give me any comfort.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I watched the Trump news conference and honestly......it didn't give me any comfort.


Trump, Trudeau, Warren, Biden, sanders, I've watched them all. Things aren't looking very good for North America.


----------



## sags

Mike Bloomberg......but I think in a contested convention, anyone but Sanders being nominated won't get the support of his followers......so the Democrats are whooped.

Angry Sanders supporters who refused to vote for Hillary Clinton elected Trump in 2016 and if he wins again......the US and the world are whooped.

I like Bloomberg because he is a very successful capitalist who strongly supports big social issues that affect everyday people. I also think he is the best candidate to beat Trump.


----------



## sags

We asked at the pharmacy about getting some prescriptions ahead of time to stock up......just in case, and they said they can't issue them in advance.

One reason I suppose is that the government (old age prescription plan) and our private health insurance won't pay to load up in advance.

So much for the advice to stock up on meds. We are stocking up some more food today....especially non-perishables and water.

Chicken noodle soup and Kraft Dinner are high on the priorities........LOL.


----------



## AltaRed

MrMatt said:


> sags said:
> 
> 
> 
> I watched the Trump news conference and honestly......it didn't give me any comfort.
> 
> 
> 
> Trump, Trudeau, Warren, Biden, sanders, I've watched them all. Things aren't looking very good for North America.
Click to expand...

That comment has nothing to do about the imminent coronavirus threat. The immediate issue is the lack of Trump engagement when it might be needed most.


----------



## Longtimeago

I have yet to see one official of any kind say, 'stop travelling if possible'. That is the way this virus is travelling from country to country. The virus does not just 'jump' from one place to another, it is 'carried' by a person who travels.

While it is obviously not possible to stop all travel of any kind or we would not have a truck delivering groceries to a supermarket and we would not be able to go out of our homes to buy groceries either, it is entirely possible to try to LIMIT travel. But they are never going to say stop travelling as much as you can, as it would create an economic meltdown if even a decent percentage of people did that.

As individuals however, we can limit our individual risk by adopting that approach. Travel as little as possible to as few places as possible. Avoid crowds whenever possible and limit all our interactions with people as much as possible. That's the best we can do.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> I have yet to see one official of any kind say, 'stop travelling if possible'. That is the way this virus is travelling from country to country. The virus does not just 'jump' from one place to another, it is 'carried' by a person who travels.
> 
> While it is obviously not possible to stop all travel of any kind or we would not have a truck delivering groceries to a supermarket and we would not be able to go out of our homes to buy groceries either, it is entirely possible to try to LIMIT travel. But they are never going to say stop travelling as much as you can, as it would create an economic meltdown if even a decent percentage of people did that.
> 
> As individuals however, we can limit our individual risk by adopting that approach. Travel as little as possible to as few places as possible. Avoid crowds whenever possible and limit all our interactions with people as much as possible. That's the best we can do.


From what I’ve read the next phase has already begun where local outbreaks will be as a result of contact with people who did NOT travel to China. Travellers to China (the As) infected the Bs at the As destination. Now the Bs are doing the spreading. Agree...if you haven’t booked travel, then I’d probably wait. But there’s thousands heading away for March break in two weeks. I’m one of them and I’m not at the point of forfeiting our $1800 flights. The risk is still very, very low for healthy people under 50. I think I saw 0.2% death rate. As with most virulent infections, it’s the elderly and chronically ill who are most at risk.


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> I have yet to see one official of any kind say, 'stop travelling if possible'. That is the way this virus is travelling from country to country. The virus does not just 'jump' from one place to another, it is 'carried' by a person who travels.
> 
> While it is obviously not possible to stop all travel of any kind or we would not have a truck delivering groceries to a supermarket and we would not be able to go out of our homes to buy groceries either, it is entirely possible to try to LIMIT travel. But they are never going to say stop travelling as much as you can, as it would create an economic meltdown if even a decent percentage of people did that.
> 
> As individuals however, we can limit our individual risk by adopting that approach. *Travel as little as possible to as few places as possible.* Avoid crowds whenever possible and limit all our interactions with people as much as possible. That's the best we can do.


 ... ie. stay at home, meaning "inside" your house, condo, apartment, or tent. Good luck with that, impossibility.

OTOH, come to think of it maybe that is possible ... for us CMFRrs.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> The risk is still very, very low for healthy people under 50. I think I saw 0.2% death rate. As with most virulent infections, it’s the elderly and chronically ill who are most at risk.


That is a misleading stat.
Less than half the cases have been resolved. 
For closed cases that is recovered or dead, the overall death rate is about 8%.
I don't know the breakdown by age, but is expect the under 50 result to be more like 0.5 to 1% once we get those stats.
Also currently there are no under 10 death stats, which is due to sample size, not that it won't kill any kids.
I think the problem is that even a the expected 2-8% fatality rate combined with the spread is very dangerous.


----------



## james4beach

US already has a case of community transmission, unrelated to a traveller.

Its sounds to me like the virus is already out there, just about everywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if it's already in the school system and offices today.

I doubt we can "Keep it out of the country" unless we want to shut down all travel. Otherwise, we will inevitably catch it from Americans.


----------



## Beaver101

^ That's my thinking also. And watch DT twits "FAKE NEWS!" on this and MAGA!


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> That is a misleading stat.
> Less than half the cases have been resolved.
> For closed cases that is recovered or dead, the overall death rate is about 8%.
> I don't know the breakdown by age, but is expect the under 50 result to be more like 0.5 to 1% once we get those stats.
> Also currently there are no under 10 death stats, which is due to sample size, not that it won't kill any kids.
> I think the problem is that even a the expected 2-8% fatality rate combined with the spread is very dangerous.


Understood. For reference here are the ages and death rates based on total cases (note comment above re: misleading stat vs. Closed cases)

AGE
DEATH RATE*
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old	
no fatalities
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).


Of the 46,000+ active cases, approx 18% are deemed critical, 82% mild.

Source. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I doubt we can "Keep it out of the country" unless we want to shut down all travel. Otherwise, we will inevitably catch it from Americans.


We just want to slow it down enough to get an effective treatment plan. 
Or at least keep it from overlapping with the flu. 
I doubt a vaccine can be done quick enough.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> We just want to slow it down enough to get an effective treatment plan.
> Or at least keep it from overlapping with the flu.
> I doubt a vaccine can be done quick enough.


Slowing it down to buy time does make sense.

Would you suggest mandatory quarantines for people arriving from certain countries?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> We just want to slow it down enough to get an effective treatment plan.
> Or at least keep it from overlapping with the flu.
> I doubt a vaccine can be done quick enough.
> 
> 
> 
> Slowing it down to buy time does make sense.
> 
> Would you suggest mandatory quarantines for people arriving from certain countries?
Click to expand...

Don't know, but a 2-6 week quarantine would have a severe impact.

It would be expensive, and likely won't work. 

However Japan just shut their schools down for several weeks, that's not any cheaper.


----------



## Synergy

MrMatt said:


> The thing is, if you're not sick, and the people around you aren't sick, how careful are you?
> How likely are you going to put up with a quarantine if neither you, or anyone around you appear sick.


Personally I take extra precautions each year during cold and flu season - whether around sick people or not. Working in the industry it was hard not to develop these habits. During these types of outbreaks I take additional precautions. One can't live in a bubble so there's always a risk but there are steps to help lower your chances.

I would follow the quarantine period. It's the right thing to do.


----------



## MrMatt

AltaRed said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sags said:
> 
> 
> 
> I watched the Trump news conference and honestly......it didn't give me any comfort.
> 
> 
> 
> Trump, Trudeau, Warren, Biden, sanders, I've watched them all. Things aren't looking very good for North America.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> That comment has nothing to do about the imminent coronavirus threat. The immediate issue is the lack of Trump engagement when it might be needed most.
Click to expand...

I think Canada and the US are facing a serious problem, and we are stuck with very poor leadership. 

I fully expect the PM would not close the borders because he doesn't want to be seen as racist. 
I'm not saying that we should close the Border, but if that was prudent I'd do it, I'm pretty sure our PM would hesitate, because he cares more about his image than the people of this country.


----------



## Eclectic12

Synergy said:


> Personally I take extra precautions each year during cold and flu season - whether around sick people or not ... I would follow the quarantine period. It's the right thing to do.


So would I ... I've also intentionally worked from home to avoid sharing the wealth with a regular cold.

Unfortunately, it seems that some aren't on board.

“If it was possible to leave at all, people would try and make a break for it."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...r-catching-coronavirus-while-trapped-in-hotel

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1511036-20200226.htm
https://nationalpost.com/news/kim-j...-bath-while-in-coronavirus-quarantine-reports


Cheers


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> I watched the Trump news conference and honestly......it didn't give me any comfort.


He previously fired all the pandemic expert staff, because getting even with Obama and "the libs" is more important to Trump than doing his job.

What a child


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Just under 2 dozen people were tested according to news.gov.mv.ca.
> 
> https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=46859
> 
> 
> I'm glad at the amount of information being shared.


Thanks, I had not seen that. Looks like good info.


----------



## Eder

Here's what Dr. Colleen Kraft US disease specialist had to say… on CNN 
*
"While at least 60 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the US, no one has died of it here, while this year's influenza has infected at least 29 million in the US and killed about 16,000 so far.*

So ya we have a pandemic...


----------



## Beaver101

^ So what's the difference between "influenza" and "Covid-19" other than they're cousins? Common-sense tells me that the medical experts should taking a deeper and faster dive (and spending more time & our dimes) in analyzing why some folks (asymptomatic ones) are immune to this "new flu" and not others instead of just pumping out non-actionable stats, and scaring the sh1t out of everyone.


----------



## Eder

I think the media needs to milk it hard as the vaccine should be coming out in a couple months and they'll have to go back to bashing the Great Orange One.


----------



## like_to_retire

Eder said:


> I think the media needs to milk it hard as the vaccine should be coming out in a couple months and they'll have to go back to bashing the Great Orange One.


Mmmm, I have read many times that the vaccine wouldn't be available for a year to a year and a half, even if all goes well with the trials and tests.

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ So what's the difference between "influenza" and "Covid-19" other than they're cousins? Common-sense tells me that the medical experts should taking a deeper and faster dive (and spending more time & our dimes) in analyzing why some folks (asymptomatic ones) are immune to this "new flu" and not others instead of just pumping out non-actionable stats, and scaring the sh1t out of everyone.


Coronavirus and Influenza are different virii.
https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus-worse-than-flu


The concern specifically with COVID-19 is
Appears to have high transmission rate (potentially airborne) and much higher transmission rate.
Mortality rate of somewhere between 2-8% based on current data vs 0.1% or so for the flu.

If we don't get good treatment plans, global deaths of a few hundred million are quite possible.

More importantantly is the emotional impact, 0.1%, when it's mostly old people you don't know isn't scary.

When it's 2% or more, you likely know someone who dies, and while it is mostly old people, it will most likely kill lots of kids, as well as some otherwise healthy adults.
That will really freak people out.

Oh, and the "nothing we can do", which will induce panic, and poor responses from our "political leaders".


----------



## Eder

like_to_retire said:


> Mmmm, I have read many times that the vaccine wouldn't be available for a year to a year and a half, even if all goes well with the trials and tests.
> 
> ltr


From WSJ

Drugmaker Moderna Inc. has shipped the first batch of its rapidly developed coronavirus vaccine to U.S. government researchers, who will launch the first human tests of whether the experimental shot could help suppress the epidemic originating in China.

Clinical trial starts early April.

So most likely need to hide under the bed only till perhaps early summer.


----------



## BoringInvestor

I'm quite happy with the way Canadian/Ontarian health officials have dealt with this thus far. It's been timely, straightforward, and delivered without inciting panic.
Seems like Toronto-area hospitals have upped their protocols after SARS, to positive effect.

Keeping good hygiene, and having enough food/medicine/water for a few days are a good basic guide that we should all follow.


----------



## like_to_retire

Eder said:


> So most likely need to hide under the bed only till perhaps early summer.



When will there be a publicly available vaccine for the new coronavirus? 

Not for several months, and *probably closer to a year.*

ltr


----------



## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> He previously fired all the pandemic expert staff, because getting even with Obama and "the libs" is more important to Trump than doing his job.
> 
> What a child


Sure ... but so did Bush. Something about politics and rewarding supporters.
https://thehill.com/5349-bush-tore-down-the-fema-that-clinton-built-up


Cheers


----------



## sags

Thus far, the level of ineptness of the Trump administration is causing the panic level to rise.

We just learned the US sent people to bring back the people from Wuhan without wearing protective gear or having any training. 

Those people then jumped on commercial airlines and went home all over the US. Good luck tracking them down and everyone they were in contact with.

The unprecedented actions of countries all around the world reveal that this is no regular flu bug. Those governments are being advised by their experts to lock it down.

Trump appointed VP Pence in charge and then they muzzled all others from speaking freely. Drip, drip, drip......is how the information is coming to the public.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Trump appointed VP Pence in charge and then they muzzled all others from speaking freely. Drip, drip, drip......is how the information is coming to the public.


Yeah, this is insane. They have a religious fundamentalist (Pence) now in charge of a major disease outbreak. This is after Trump fired all the actual pandemic experts who had been training and building response plans.

He's now actually endangering the lives of everyone in US & Canada. This is why we need intelligent and astute leaders -- people who take the office seriously -- not TV celebrities. Still can't believe Americans elected this clown; we may all suffer as a result.


----------



## james4beach

Eclectic12 said:


> Sure ... but so did Bush. Something about politics and rewarding supporters.
> https://thehill.com/5349-bush-tore-down-the-fema-that-clinton-built-up


Thanks for finding that. I had no idea; that's nuts too.

Sigh.


----------



## sags

In the morning the health authority says they are well prepared. In the afternoon, news stories say the hospitals are swamped by the normal flow of patients. 

The assurances by health authorities don't have the ring of truth or competency to them.


----------



## Eder

I think Trump is being more pro active than our missing in action guy.


----------



## Eder

As per my above post...no one in Canada is in charge

Quoted from someone that was there...
Westjet Flight 448 Was Under Quarantine In Winnipeg Canada (Breaking Coronavirus News) BREAKING: Westjet flight 448 is reportedly under quarantine in Winnipeg. Passenger with fever, unresponsive. I spoke with Westjet and they say they are under "legal obligation" due to a "medical emergency." I am currently on my own flight, but I'll do my best to keep you posted. NEW: after Westjet "informed the appropriate authorities" of reportedly unresponsive, feverish passenger from China, Health Canada released the flight and ordered the plane not to be quarantined. Good to know this is being taken seriously by Westjet, at least.


----------



## sags

In a press conference today, Trump said the virus is going to "disappear". 

_"One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear. And from our shores, you know, it could get worse before it gets better. Could maybe go away. We will see what happens".
_
Is there another leader on earth who says such stupid things consistently ? All the world leaders think Trump is an idiot......and they are right.


----------



## james4beach

Eder said:


> As per my above post...no one in Canada is in charge


Here's one of our resident conspiracy theorists.

Eder, you're being irresponsible by posting preliminary things like this which can feed fear & panic. What you posted is not correct. And quit whining that "no one in Canada is in charge". This is also incorrect and can contribute to irrational panic.

Posting unsubstantiated, hastily created stories off of social media is exactly the kind of thing that's going to feed alarm and public panic.

Here is the correct story
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/sick-passenger-westjet-flight-winnipeg-1.5478862

A *domestic* flight from Vancouver - Winnipeg is involved.

Contrary to Eder's alarmist post: the flight was NOT quarantined

Instead, one passenger got sick during the flight. People always get sick during flights... this is a common event. The flight attendants wore masks and gloves, obviously to just be careful.

The plane sat on the ground for an hour until paramedics came. Then after another 30 mins, passengers were screened for health, then let off the plane.

The main complaint people have is about the amount of time they waited on the plane.

This whole thing is a very routine event. The only story here is the slower than usual response time of Manitoba Health & paramedics.


----------



## Eder

Not too routine

From the Winnipeg Sun

WestJet Flight 448 landed at 3:10 p.m. At Winnipeg Richardson International Airport and was held while emergency personnel attended the scene. They were called to reports of a woman who alerted airline staff she was having medical issues just prior to landing. WestJet said the plane was not quarantined.
Emergency Medical Services personnel removed her on a stretcher while wearing masks and medical gowns There is no official word on any of her symptoms or condition at press time.
A spokesperson for Manitoba Health, Seniors and Active Living said all appropriate precautions and procedures are being followed.
The other 133 passengers were allowed to leave the plane starting about 3:45 p.m. and were cleared to return home.


Winnipeg airport has no testing capabilities yet the plane landed at 3:10...passengers began disembarking at 3:45. CBC said she passed a virus test after being removed from the plane.
Sound OK to you ?

At any rate I pray all are OK and it turns out to be flu.


----------



## Longtimeago

One of the biggest risks to Canada is travellers from the USA. Consider how many people cross our border every day. 

I started this thread on the issue of transparency. But it is not just about the transparency in Canada, what about the transparency in the USA? Trump obviously wants no transparency at all. Mike Pence having been put 'in charge' of the USA's response by Trump immediately told the committee that they were to make no individual statements to the media without first clearing it with the Whitehouse. 

The Governor of California has just announced that California has 200 test kits. Yes, 200. Now he has made that transparent and how does it line up with Trump saying, 'we're prepared'. If California only has 200 test kits, what about all the other states? https://time.com/5792013/california-coronavirus-testing-kits/

A whistleblower has now stepped forward in the USA saying that inadequate precautions were used during and after when they flew people back to the USA from China. When shA 'whistleblower' has now revealed that proper precautions were not taken when the USA flew people back from China. When she complained to her superiors, she was moved to another job. When she complained a second time she was told, 'shut up, do this new job or you could find yourself being fired.' How's that for transparency.
https://time.com/5792135/coronavirus-whistleblower-hhs-employees/


We need to worry about transparency in the USA as much as we need to in Canada. Our border is simply too busy to ignore the USA and say, 'well here in Canada, our agencies are dealing with it as well as can be expected.'


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> From what I’ve read the next phase has already begun where local outbreaks will be as a result of contact with people who did NOT travel to China. Travellers to China (the As) infected the Bs at the As destination. Now the Bs are doing the spreading. Agree...if you haven’t booked travel, then I’d probably wait. But there’s thousands heading away for March break in two weeks. I’m one of them and I’m not at the point of forfeiting our $1800 flights. The risk is still very, very low for healthy people under 50. I think I saw 0.2% death rate. As with most virulent infections, it’s the elderly and chronically ill who are most at risk.


You are simply 'self-justifying' your decision Money172375. Do you realize how contradictory it is to say in one breath, 'if you haven't booked, then I'd probably wait' and in the next breath, 'I'm not at the point of forfeiting our $1800 flights.' What you are saying is you should NOT risk it but you are going to do so because of money. 

Right now our health officials in Canada are now at the point of telling people to avoid large gatherings (events, etc.) and be prepared with sufficient food etc. Are you following that advice? The answer is no, you are preparing to go to places with a large gatherings, airports, hotels. Are you preparing to take large amounts of food with you in case you need it? I don't suppose you. So you are going to ignore the advice you are being given, why, because $1800 means more to you than following good advice does.

I understand your problem but I do not agree with your decision. This discrepancy between what our health officials are saying and what our official Travel Advisories say should not be allowed to exist. It puts people in the position you now find yourself in and that's just wrong. If Canada raised the Travel Advisory level to 'avoid all unnecessary travel' to ANYWHERE, airlines and insurance providers would have to let you cancel and get a refund. What then would be your decision?

If all those people heading to Florida for March break could cancel without loss, what do you think it would do to the Florida economy? That is why the RIGHT advice will not be given. The impact of telling people, 'stay home, hunker down', is just too big for the politicians to dare to say. But it does not mean that an individual should use the lack of the right advice to justify making the wrong decision. If California has 200 test kits, how many does Florida have? 

I will point again to the hotel in Tenerife where ordinary tourists who did not go on vacation expecting to run into COVID-19 find themselves stuck in their hotel. What do you suppose their answer would be now if you asked them, 'do you want what has happened to you or do you want to be at home and have lost $1800.' I'm pretty sure you would not find any opting to be where they are now.


----------



## Longtimeago

Transparency would be our government saying, 'travel anywhere right now is not a good idea.' But that amount of transparency is never gonna happen.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> Here's what Dr. Colleen Kraft US disease specialist had to say… on CNN
> *
> "While at least 60 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the US, no one has died of it here, while this year's influenza has infected at least 29 million in the US and killed about 16,000 so far.*
> 
> So ya we have a pandemic...


Eder, your lack of basic knowledge of the facts is amazing. If COVID-19 represented less to worry about than the 'flu', why do you think every country in the world is more worried about it? Are they all in on a media led conspiracy to get people worried and just increase media viewer numbers?

IF COVID-19 infects 29 million people in the USA it will KILL perhaps a MILLION people. Try that comparison.


----------



## m3s

Eder said:


> Here's what Dr. Colleen Kraft US disease specialist had to say… on CNN
> *
> "While at least 60 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the US, no one has died of it here, while this year's influenza has infected at least 29 million in the US and killed about 16,000 so far.*
> 
> So ya we have a pandemic...


16k of 29M is a fatality rate of what 0.0005%?

For comparison H1N1 had a fatality rate of 0.01-0.08%

Covid-19 appears to have a fatality rate of 2-8%. 1% of 29M is 290k



> It is estimated that 11–21% of the then global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700–1400 million people contracted the illness — more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic.[4] However, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities, it had a much lower case fatality rate of 0.01-0.08%


If a global pandemic such as H1N1 had a fatality rate of +1% we are talking what +100M people. +5% fatality rate could wipe out most of the elderly population


----------



## humble_pie

m3s said:


> 16k of 29M is a fatality rate of what 0.0005%?
> 
> For comparison H1N1 had a fatality rate of 0.01-0.08%
> 
> Covid-19 appears to have a fatality rate of 2-8%. 1% of 29M is 290k
> 
> 
> 
> If a global pandemic such as H1N1 had a fatality rate of +1% we are talking what +100M people. +5% fatality rate could wipe out most of the elderly population




... but it was yourself, was it not, who only a few months said the world is due for a thinning of the herd

you went on to say that military experts are foreseeing a hard day's night for mankind upon planet earth. Too many negative mega-signs. Unprecedented numbers of refugees, millions upon millions. Accelerating rate of disappearance of living species. Too many raging little brush-fire wars. Everything pointing to a thinning of the herd.


----------



## jargey3000

Yup! we're in good hand.....
https://imgur.com/gallery/q2kwCjf


----------



## sags

There is a video going viral (nice play on words right there) of Pence wiping his nose with his hand then shaking the hands of everyone at the Trump news conference.

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/02/watch-mike-pence-shows-why-hes-terrible


----------



## sags

There is so much for the media to cover these days, they aren't even talking much about other major issues.

A plague of more than a billion locusts that are eating all the crops in Africa and the Middle East. China is sending 100,000 ducks to the area. Ducks eat about 200 locusts a day.

Turkey and Russia on the brink of all out war over Syria. The wanton killing of innocent children and people in Syria by Russian bombers and Assad's forces.

There is more, but it is depressing and nobody is doing anything about it. The only redeeming quality for the human race is that the people are more honorable than their leaders.


----------



## cainvest

WHO has upgraded the global threat level from HIGH to VERY HIGH.


----------



## sags

Video on Fox News of some guy being interviewed. He has completed the quarantine process and is talking about it. 

Throughout the interview he continues to cough and takes a drink from his daughter's water bottle and then gives it back to her.

Seriously........we are doomed.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1233423437286211585


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Video on Fox News of some guy being interviewed. He has completed the quarantine process and is talking about it.
> 
> Throughout the interview he continues to cough and takes a drink from his daughter's water bottle and then gives it back to her.
> 
> Seriously........we are doomed.


Sooooo ... what's wrong with that sags?


----------



## jargey3000




----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> sags said:
> 
> 
> 
> Video on Fox News of some guy being interviewed. He has completed the quarantine process and is talking about it.
> 
> Throughout the interview he continues to cough and takes a drink from his daughter's water bottle and then gives it back to her.
> 
> Seriously........we are doomed.
> 
> 
> 
> Sooooo ... what's wrong with that sags?
Click to expand...

If you're coughing, maybe you shouldn't be sharing drinks.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> If you're coughing, maybe you shouldn't be sharing drinks.


Probably right, not the smartest thing but having gone through the quarantine process he's likely safer than others. 
Not sure it counts towards "we are doomed".


----------



## sags

Our combined defense against the virus is only as strong as our weakest link and people like that guy might be our weakest link.

Secondly, several infected people who successfully completed the quarantine process tested positive for the virus days later.

It appears the virus may have the ability to "hibernate" and reactivate itself at a later date. It is called "latent dormancy" and occurs with the herpes virus and others.

Doomed may be too strong a word for the young and healthy, but with a high fatality rate for people over 60 or those with health problems it may doom some of us to catch it.


----------



## james4beach

sags, we don't know if it's a high fatality rate. I think you're jumping to conclusions. Even among reported cases, it's not a very high death rate.

And there are far more cases... perhaps enormously more... that are not even reported. Therefore the % of infected people who have serious problems may be quite small.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> sags, we don't know if it's a high fatality rate. I think you're jumping to conclusions. Even among reported cases, it's not a very high death rate.
> 
> And there are far more cases... perhaps enormously more... that are not even reported. Therefore the % of infected people who have serious problems may be quite small.


Based on the data for closed cases the mortality rate is still at 7%.

We likely have lots of people who don't get tested.

The thing is COVID-19 has a high transmisison rate.


----------



## doctrine

Well, I guess I was wrong, I thought this would blow over. This thing is insanely contagious. China hasn't opened up because the second they do, this will explode. I believe it's been quite underestimated, the contagious power of this virus. 

There are now at least 3 cases on the west coast - 2 California, 1 Oregon, that are unrelated to each other, to travel, and to other cases. So it would be very reasonable to assume it's community based in North America. I think there will be a lot more cases in the future, and quarantines may start. I believe the epic market selloff this week was very justified and wouldn't have happened unless there was credible belief that this was completely uncontained.

There has hardly been one case reported from almost all of Africa. Yet a man who flew back from Toronto 8 days ago from Egypt developed the virus. And had a number of days to spread it. This thing is everywhere.


----------



## james4beach

It sounds prevalent within the US at this point. I think it's a matter of time before it's all over Canada as well; there's a huge amount of cross-border traffic and business.

Here's the government's web page, worth watching:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html


----------



## Eder

Longtimeago said:


> Eder, your lack of basic knowledge of the facts is amazing. If COVID-19 represented less to worry about than the 'flu', why do you think every country in the world is more worried about it? Are they all in on a media led conspiracy to get people worried and just increase media viewer numbers?
> 
> IF COVID-19 infects 29 million people in the USA it will KILL perhaps a MILLION people. Try that comparison.


You do realize I quoted a PHD...wasn't my quote. Perhaps you'd like to tell her she has a lack of basic knowledge? I think you had a lack of reading comprehension lol.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> sags, we don't know if it's a high fatality rate. I think you're jumping to conclusions. Even among reported cases, it's not a very high death rate.
> 
> And there are far more cases... perhaps enormously more... that are not even reported. Therefore the % of infected people who have serious problems may be quite small.


WHO was saying the data trend can tell a lot even if the data is incomplete.

If you are conservative and say 1% fatality rate that is still 100x H1N1 and 2000x influenza rate. Not everyone with H1N1 or influenza are detected and counted either but the data comparison is vastly different

Rate is much higher +70 and/or cardiovascular/respiratory/hypertension


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> WHO was saying the data trend can tell a lot even if the data is incomplete.
> 
> If you are conservative and say 1% fatality rate that is still 100x H1N1 and 2000x influenza rate. Not everyone with H1N1 or influenza are detected and counted either but the data comparison is vastly different
> 
> Rate is much higher +70 and/or cardiovascular/respiratory/hypertension


We have 2 basic datapoints.
1. Based on confirmed cases, the R value (aka spread rate) is higher than the flu.
- There is a concern that covid-19 might be airborne. ie actual contact with a contaminated surface may not be required.
2. it appears to be far more lethal than the flu, by several orders of magnitude.


Point 2 could be exaggerated since we don't actually have a good denominator (ie count of all cases). If there are many unknown cases, this could be lower.
However the current consensus is that it is most likely significantly more lethal than the Flu, fortunately it does not appear to be as bad as SARS.

Point 1 however is basically indisputable, if we know about all the cases it is spreading faster. If we don't know about all the cases, it's spreading even faster than the data suggests.

Based on the data we have, it's a big problem, if there happen to be more cases, that changes the numbers but it's still a big problem.
If we only know about 10% of cases, it's still at least 200x as fatal as the flu, and spreads significantly faster than almost any disease with this kind of mortality rate.

Also it's currently basically undetectable for a significant period.


----------



## Jimmy

The 1918 Spanish Flu influenza mortality rate was 2-3% w 20- 50 M moralities per the WHO. Corona is 3.4% overall w 2858 fatalities but highest in the Hubei province ( 4%) where the majority ~ 97% of the mortalities are , rest of China is .82%. 

It looks like in China the # of confirmed cases is already declining and the peak will be in the next 2 weeks followed by the decline. There are new cases in Korea which could have its peak in a month.


----------



## Longtimeago

Health officials in BC stated that they have tested more people than ALL of those tested in the USA to date.

A school teacher in Oregon and a high school student in Washington State have tested positive for the virus with no connection in any way that can be found. 

The figures coming out of Iran indicate a 7% mortality rate, further indicating that the figures from China are not reliable.

Some large companies are stating that none of their employees are to travel internationally at all.

One of the issues I still see is that many people do not understand the difference between 'screening' and 'testing'. I have heard TV talking heads referring to thousands having been tested when in fact they are talking about people who have been screened but not tested. 

Some USA experts are now publicly saying that the Oregon and Washington cases clearly show that the virus is there, at the community level and has simply gone undetected till now. 

It is time now for every country to move from just focusing on links to travel and start testing anyone who presents with symptoms, that basically means testing everyone who has flu like symptoms. In England, they have already started doing this to try and detect community outbreaks not connected to travel to China, S. Korea, Italy, etc.


----------



## Longtimeago

Jimmy said:


> The 1918 Spanish Flu influenza mortality rate was 2-3% w 20- 50 M moralities per the WHO. Corona is 3.4% overall w 2858 fatalities but highest in the Hubei province ( 4%) where the majority ~ 97% of the mortalities are , rest of China is .82%.
> 
> It looks like in China the # of confirmed cases is already declining and the peak will be in the next 2 weeks followed by the decline. There are new cases in Korea which could have its peak in a month.


One of the problems with the numbers is the actual number of cases is always an estimate while the number of deaths is a known fact(or should be). Right now, Iran's numbers are showing a 7% mortality rate. That's IF you believe their official figures of 388 cases reported and 34 deaths. Other sources claim the deaths are as high as 210! If that second number is true, then obviously the number of cases must be substantially higher than they are reporting as well.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51673053

The actual numbers do not matter in that whatever they are, this is a serious killer and should not be ignored or 'played down' by anyone. ie. Trump


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Health officials in BC stated that they have tested more people than ALL of those tested in the USA to date.
> 
> A school teacher in Oregon and a high school student in Washington State have tested positive for the virus with no connection in any way that can be found.
> 
> The figures coming out of Iran indicate a 7% mortality rate, further indicating that the figures from China are not reliable.
> 
> Some large companies are stating that none of their employees are to travel internationally at all.
> 
> One of the issues I still see is that many people do not understand the difference between 'screening' and 'testing'. I have heard TV talking heads referring to thousands having been tested when in fact they are talking about people who have been screened but not tested.
> 
> Some USA experts are now publicly saying that the Oregon and Washington cases clearly show that the virus is there, at the community level and has simply gone undetected till now.
> 
> It is time now for every country to move from just focusing on links to travel and start testing anyone who presents with symptoms, that basically means testing everyone who has flu like symptoms. In England, they have already started doing this to try and detect community outbreaks not connected to travel to China, S. Korea, Italy, etc.


The figures from China have been saying 7-10% the whole time, why do you think they're unreliable?

Regarding Screening and testing, what are they?
A screening test is a low overhead (quick and cheap) test. This could be checking temperatures, or looking for coughing, like we did for SARS.
Testing could be anything from a screening test to a full blood analysis, including growing cultures or even biopsies. Not that I'm suggesting this is appropriate or that they're doing this.

Ordinary people don't know the difference, and nobody knows how effective any of the screening/testing strategies are.


Also the warnings are starting, but I think it's a bit late.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/index.html

That being said, I think the governments have to balance to keep panic from setting in.
They're already recommending stockpiling for quarantines, but if everyone runs out now, we'll have shortages, which will make it worse.
If everyone calmly stocks up over the next few weeks no issues.

We want people to restrict travel, stock up, be careful. But we don't want panic. if videos of empty shelves and riots at US stores happens, we'll have a VERY big problem.

Personally I'm acting with more caution than most, but the opportunity cost of a few extra cans of Chunky soup is very small. Particularly since central banks are going to have to cut rates, or at least delay any hikes.
The prepper sites are reporting that they're having delays shipping orders, this is good marketting for them, and they benefit from a bit more fear and panic, so consider the source.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> You do realize I quoted a PHD...wasn't my quote. Perhaps you'd like to tell her she has a lack of basic knowledge? I think you had a lack of reading comprehension lol.


Quoting a PhD, means nothing Eder. It is not the quote that is the issue it is the INFERENCE you made from those numbers that is foolish. The flu kills a lot of people, yes that is true but so WHAT? This COVID-19 virus has a much higher rate of mortality. So you cannot point to the flu and say, 'oh it kills thousands and COVID-19 has only killed a couple of thousands, ERGO, we have more to fear from the flu. 

We have far more to fear from this novel virus if it spreads easily as it seems to be doing. If it infects millions, before it runs its course, it will kill far more than the flu does.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Longtimeago said:


> One of the problems with the numbers is the actual number of cases is always an estimate while the number of deaths is a known fact(or should be). Right now, Iran's numbers are showing a 7% mortality rate. That's IF you believe their official figures of 388 cases reported and 34 deaths. Other sources claim the deaths are as high as 210! If that second number is true, then obviously the number of cases must be substantially higher than they are reporting as well.
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51673053
> 
> The actual numbers do not matter in that whatever they are, this is a serious killer and should not be ignored or 'played down' by anyone. ie. Trump


Agreed.

If you came down with some symptoms like the flu or a cold, right now, would you immediately go to the hospital? Some might. I would wait and see if I got worse or better. If I started to get better, and had very few breathing issues, I would probably assume it was the flu or something else. No one would ever know that it was Corona.

I believe one of the big differences between the survivors and the dyers, above and beyond age and current health conditions, is how big of dose did you receive when you contracted it? If this virus can survive on a surface for nine days, you have to know that the amount on that surface is maximized when it was transferred there, but decreases every day and hour as it sits there. If one person touches that surface 1 hour after the original transfer and another person, the same age, touches it 8 days later, and both suck their fingers immediately after, the first one might die and the second might only have a few annoying symptoms and recover without even the need of any hospitalization.

That is how I see it. So LTA is correct. The death rate must be significantly lower then what we see in the published numbers.


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> sags, we don't know if it's a high fatality rate. I think you're jumping to conclusions. Even among reported cases, it's not a very high death rate.
> 
> And there are far more cases... perhaps enormously more... that are not even reported. Therefore the % of infected people who have serious problems may be quite small.


Again, you must look at transmission rates as well as mortality rates. Never just mortality rates in isolation. SARS had a low transmission but high mortality rate (10%). The 'ordinary' flu has a high transmission but low mortality rate(.01%). The issue here with COVID-19 is that so far it looks like it has a high transmission rate AND a relatively high mortality rate. Take any of the current estimates of the mortality rate you want and do the math james4beach. If it has both high transmission and high mortality rates and really gets loose, it will kill far more than the flu does and it sure looks to me like it is getting loose. We are now starting to see cases reported with no known connection to China, Italy, S. Korea, etc. New cases in places like Oregon and Washington State with no clear connections. That is 'community transmission' which is another way of saying, it is loose.


----------



## Longtimeago

OptsyEagle said:


> Agreed.
> 
> If you came down with some symptoms like the flu or a cold, right now, would you immediately go to the hospital? Some might. I would wait and see if I got worse or better. If I started to get better, and had very few breathing issues, I would probably assume it was the flu or something else. No one would ever know that it was Corona.
> 
> I believe one of the big differences between the survivors and the dyers, above and beyond age and current health conditions, is how big of dose did you receive when you contracted it? If this virus can survive on a surface for nine days, you have to know that the amount on that surface is maximized when it was transferred there, but decreases every day and hour as it sits there. If one person touches that surface 1 hour after the original transfer and another person, the same age, touches it 8 days later, and both suck their fingers immediately after, the first one might die and the second might only have a few annoying symptoms and recover without even the need of any hospitalization.
> 
> That is how I see it. So LTA is correct. The death rate must be significantly lower then what we see in the published numbers.


Did you mean to write the death rate must be LOWER or did you mean to right it must be higher OptsyEagle?

In any case, the actual death rate is considerably higher than for the flu, I don't think that can be disputed. If it were 'just another' flu bug, it would not be getting all this attention from WHO etc. It is a serious killer and even if the mortality rate is only 1%, if the infection rate is high, it has the potential to kill far more than the flu does if it cannot be contained which looks increasingly unlikely.

Also, your comments re someone after an hour and someone after 8 days are incorrect. If you get it, you get it, full stop. How bad it will be will not differ.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> The figures from China have been saying 7-10% the whole time, why do you think they're unreliable?
> 
> Regarding Screening and testing, what are they?
> A screening test is a low overhead (quick and cheap) test. This could be checking temperatures, or looking for coughing, like we did for SARS.
> Testing could be anything from a screening test to a full blood analysis, including growing cultures or even biopsies. Not that I'm suggesting this is appropriate or that they're doing this.
> 
> Ordinary people don't know the difference, and nobody knows how effective any of the screening/testing strategies are.
> 
> 
> Also the warnings are starting, but I think it's a bit late.
> https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/index.html
> 
> That being said, I think the governments have to balance to keep panic from setting in.
> They're already recommending stockpiling for quarantines, but if everyone runs out now, we'll have shortages, which will make it worse.
> If everyone calmly stocks up over the next few weeks no issues.
> 
> We want people to restrict travel, stock up, be careful. But we don't want panic. if videos of empty shelves and riots at US stores happens, we'll have a VERY big problem.
> 
> Personally I'm acting with more caution than most, but the opportunity cost of a few extra cans of Chunky soup is very small. Particularly since central banks are going to have to cut rates, or at least delay any hikes.
> The prepper sites are reporting that they're having delays shipping orders, this is good marketting for them, and they benefit from a bit more fear and panic, so consider the source.


OK MrMatt, I will try to clarify some issues.

First, the numbers coming out of China for a relatively long time have been being reported as around 2%. The official numbers coming out of Iran are 7% BUT even those are being questioned. The official numbers from Iran are 388 cases and 34 deaths but those are being questioned as well. Read here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51673053

The point being, the numbers are not reliable. However, even if you take the lowest mortality rate being suggested at 1%, IF the transmission rate is high, that will result in a lot of deaths. As it stands now, it looks like the transmission rate is relatively high and the mortality rate is relatively high. Even 1% is a HIGH mortality rate for any given virus.

Re screening and testing. Basically, screening is next to useless while testing is a specific laboratory test done that will detect whether or not a person has the virus in their body. You are right when you 'ordinary people don't know the difference' but the point there is that 'ordinary people' should be being made aware of the difference. When they think people arriving at an airport are being 'tested' in their thousands and so cases will be caught that way, they are wrong in that thinking. Screening will only catch very obvious potential cases. The ONLY way to know is 'testing' and that is not being done in the numbers 'ordinary people' may think is happening. 

For example, British Columbia has done more actual tests than all of the USA. But how many is that? It's 1017 as of Feb. 27. Does that sound like a lot to you?
https://globalnews.ca/news/6610416/bc-covid-19-testing-more-than-united-states-premier/
Ontario has also done more than all of the USA but how are we doing compared to other countries as well? Read here:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/why-has-the-us-cdc-done-so-little-coronavirus-testing.html

In the UK they have done over 7,000 and are now starting to test not just people who can be linked in some way to existing factors like travel or exposure to a known case, they are starting to test all those who present with flu like symptoms. This is what has to be done when you suspect it has got away from known links as has become 'community based'. We still aren't testing enough here in Canada, we're still testing based on likely 'links'.

So what's the bottom line on 'screening' vs. 'testing'. If people think we are doing all we need to do here in Canada, they are wrong. We are behind the curve and should have already started testing far more than we have. We also have to realize just how exposed we are because of the even far worse situation that exists in the USA. Thousands of people cross our border every day as you know and if the USA is not doing a good job of testing, that exposes Canada as well.

Finally, a tip for stocking up for you MrMatt. Buy lots of toilet paper. It is one of the items that usually goes first when people start to panic. Imagine living without it for even a few weeks.


----------



## Longtimeago

The somewhat good news is our health officials are now talking about ramping up testing.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6611251/coronavirus-surveillance-canada/

What disturbs me in that report though is that Dr. Williams, Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health 'reportedly' said, 'the mortality rate is less than that of the flu'. I hope that was a misquote. I haven't heard anyone try to say the mortality rate is lower than for the flu. All the evidence points to a mortality rate far HIGHER than the flu.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> The figures from China have been saying 7-10% the whole time, why do you think they're unreliable?
> .
> 
> 
> 
> OK MrMatt, I will try to clarify some issues.
> 
> First, the numbers coming out of China for a relatively long time have been being reported as around 2%. .
Click to expand...

I completely disagree, the number have been saying 7-10% the whole time. 
I've repeatedly posted about the poorly written articles with bad statistics.

To clarify the stats have been saying 7-10%. I have yet to see any stats, other than unsourced and/or misleading stats quoted in articles.
If you have seen any stats actually supporting a 2% rate, I'd love to see them.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I meant that the death rate for Covid19 must be considerably lower then what is reported by the media, because as you said, many more people probably got it then what is reported (larger denominator). However, everyone that died would have been reported. 

A bigger denominator should make for a lower percentage equation.

I have no idea how it might compare to the flu or any other virus. This is the one that concerns me at present.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> I completely disagree, the number have been saying 7-10% the whole time.
> I've repeatedly posted about the poorly written articles with bad statistics.
> 
> To clarify the stats have been saying 7-10%. I have yet to see any stats, other than unsourced and/or misleading stats quoted in articles.
> If you have seen any stats actually supporting a 2% rate, I'd love to see them.


Read here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ Scroll down for earlier estimates. Even as of Feb. 20 they were only reporting 3.8%, not 7-10%

As of even Tuesday of this week, Dr. Bruce Aylward of the WHO team in China was saying, "a case fatality rate of about 2-4% in Hubei province and about .7% in other parts of China." See here: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25...gh-coronavirus-fatality-rate-who-expert-says/

But the only thing we have to agree on is that the number is relatively high in terms of any virus mortality rate where the likelyhood of transmission is also relatively high overall as this virus appears to be. Even at 2-4% it rivals the Spanish Flu of 1918. The real question we have to worry about is how many people will get infected. Transmission and spread is what is going to matter, the mortality rate is meaningless without that factor.

This is why I am disturbed by the seeming quote by Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health that the mortality rate is less than that of the flu. No one has said that and even if it were true, it is meaningless as a statement without also referencing the transmission rate and spread.


----------



## Longtimeago

OptsyEagle said:


> I meant that the death rate for Covid19 must be considerably lower then what is reported by the media, because as you said, many more people probably got it then what is reported (larger denominator). However, everyone that died would have been reported.
> 
> A bigger denominator should make for a lower percentage equation.
> 
> I have no idea how it might compare to the flu or any other virus. This is the one that concerns me at present.


OK, OptsyEagle, I understand your point.

However, most cases of the flu are ALSO not reported, stats exist only for those who present themselves at a doctor or hospital. They 'guesstimate' the overall number of flu cases. They do try to make a 'best educated guess' of course but they are also doing that with COVID-19. Read this article: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25...gh-coronavirus-fatality-rate-who-expert-says/ They are giving their 'best guess' based on the information they have and that includes a 'guess' as to how many cases go unreported.


----------



## Jimmy

Longtimeago said:


> One of the problems with the numbers is the actual number of cases is always an estimate while the number of deaths is a known fact(or should be). Right now, Iran's numbers are showing a 7% mortality rate. That's IF you believe their official figures of 388 cases reported and 34 deaths. Other sources claim the deaths are as high as 210! If that second number is true, then obviously the number of cases must be substantially higher than they are reporting as well.
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51673053
> 
> The actual numbers do not matter in that whatever they are, this is a serious killer and should not be ignored or 'played down' by anyone. ie. Trump


I wasn't ignoring or playing it down. I was looking at a study that showed though that these viruses have their peaks fairly quickly . Influenza lasted for ~ 3 months. A study shows this virus may last another month. So good from a health viewpoint and hopefully that markets and economies should hopefully get back to normal fairly quickly.


----------



## Longtimeago

Jimmy said:


> I wasn't ignoring or playing it down. I was looking at a study that showed though that these viruses have their peaks fairly quickly . Influenza lasted for ~ 3 months. A study shows this virus may last another month. So good from a health viewpoint and hopefully that markets and economies should hopefully get back to normal fairly quickly.


Try looking at the timeline for SARS Jimmy and it will blow your estimates as to how long it will last out of the water. From November 16, 2002 when an outbreak in China was first reported (it started before that obviously) till June 2003 when the last death in Canada was reported. In fact, SARS broke out again after that but with only a few cases. Overall though it last nearly 2 years.

The point being, what one virus did does not tell you what a 'novel' virus will do. Novel simply meaning a new and previously UNKNOWN virus. There is no 'these viruses' as you put it, there is only 'this' virus referring to either a known virus with history or an unknown virus as COVID-19 is.

So don't go betting on 'soon', there is no evidence to support that supposition one way or the other.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago, read your links.
It actually has an extensive section on Case Fatality Rate, which in my opinion is a flawed metric during the initial growth phase of an outbreak. 


In short unadjusted CFR, itself is the potentially misleading stat I've been complaining about. 

I think the stat that matters is closed case mortality. 
Ie deaths/(deaths+recoveries)


----------



## Jimmy

Longtimeago said:


> Try looking at the timeline for SARS Jimmy and it will blow your estimates as to how long it will last out of the water. From November 16, 2002 when an outbreak in China was first reported (it started before that obviously) till June 2003 when the last death in Canada was reported. In fact, SARS broke out again after that but with only a few cases. Overall though it last nearly 2 years.
> 
> The point being, what one virus did does not tell you what a 'novel' virus will do. Novel simply meaning a new and previously UNKNOWN virus. There is no 'these viruses' as you put it, there is only 'this' virus referring to either a known virus with history or an unknown virus as COVID-19 is.
> 
> So don't go betting on 'soon', there is no evidence to support that supposition one way or the other.


They aren't my estimates. They are from A JP Morgan study. And yes there is evidence. The S&p has risen 8.8% on avg 6 months after the outbreak of these epidemics per a Bloomberg study. Not betting on anything but no pt in being too negative either.


----------



## Longtimeago

Again, while I agree the mortality rates matters, I'm not hung up on whether it is 2% or 10% in that either one of them is high enough to matter. I don't know how else to put this MrMatt. I am not a stats geek, I am only concerned with how likely I am to get this virus. If I can avoid contracting it, I don't have to worry about dying from it. If I contract it, THEN I will worry about how likely I am to die from it.

So what I want to see NOW is transparency from the experts and governments about what it is they are doing to avoid my contracting it. Test everybody that presents with flu symptoms, tell everybody to stop travelling. I know I won't hear them saying that but if they did, my chances of contracting it would sure be reduced.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Again, while I agree the mortality rates matters, I'm not hung up on whether it is 2% or 10% in that either one of them is high enough to matter. I don't know how else to put this MrMatt. I am not a stats geek, I am only concerned with how likely I am to get this virus. If I can avoid contracting it, I don't have to worry about dying from it. If I contract it, THEN I will worry about how likely I am to die from it.
> 
> So what I want to see NOW is transparency from the experts and governments about what it is they are doing to avoid my contracting it. Test everybody that presents with flu symptoms, tell everybody to stop travelling. I know I won't hear them saying that but if they did, my chances of contracting it would sure be reduced.


The reality is that you're most likely going to be exposed. 
Testing those with flu like systems doesn't seem to be working. 

A total global lockdown doesn't have a lot of support now.


----------



## james4beach

Someone in Seattle just died. Female. My office mates are extremely concerned. I'm also now deferring all my anticipated travel to the west coast (both US and Canada). Not going near CA/OR/WA/BC until more data comes out.

I'm a bit surprised the numbers in BC are so low, given the travel connection to Asia and close proximity to OR/WA where there clearly are a large number of cases.

I was actually trying to move to Vancouver. Now I'm holding off until more numbers are out so I am actually changing life decisions based on this -- wait and see. Let's call it fear of the unknown but I want to see more statistics and numbers.

Can I get a reality check. Is that a reasonable thing for me to do? Delaying moving due to these concerns?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Someone in Seattle just died. Female. My office mates are extremely concerned. I'm also now deferring all my anticipated travel to the west coast (both US and Canada). Not going near CA/OR/WA/BC until more data comes out.
> 
> I'm a bit surprised the numbers in BC are so low, given the travel connection to Asia and close proximity to OR/WA where there clearly are a large number of cases.
> 
> I was actually trying to move to Vancouver. Now I'm holding off until more numbers are out so I am actually changing life decisions based on this -- wait and see. Let's call it fear of the unknown but I want to see more statistics and numbers.
> 
> Can I get a reality check. Is that a reasonable thing for me to do? Delaying moving due to these concerns?


Officials in Canada and the US are suggesting people stockpile for a possible quarantine.

I'd say suspending travel for a few weeks is reasonable.


I'm also surprised that BC isn't seeing a significant impact considering the size of the Chinese population there.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Officials in Canada and the US are suggesting people stockpile for a possible quarantine.


Source please?

I plead guilty to loading up a bit on hand soap for the home. I'm washing hands like it's nobody's business.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Can I get a reality check. Is that a reasonable thing for me to do? Delaying moving due to these concerns?


The risk is drastically lower if you are healthy and under 70. +80% of those infected are considered mild and the majority of critical cases had serious preexisting conditions. That said if they couldn't contain it in asia all you are saving is time

I was thinking how I always wanted to move to iceland or alaska but iceland is already infected. You'd have to go deep into the cdn woods and avoid all human contact for who knows how long

Lots of people have been advising to stockpile supplies for quite awhile now. I do this anyways because it applies to pretty much any disruptive situation


----------



## james4beach

m3s that's true, one really cannot avoid this. If there's community spread in the US (very likely) it's only a matter of days before virtually all of North America is affected.

I am still optimistic that not as many people will die as some of the worse estimates. This fear is healthy; there's a reason we evolved to have fear.

Fear should keep people at home, keep them washing hands, avoiding risky behaviours. Maybe even close down some schools... that's inconvenient but not a bad thing.


----------



## Beaver101

And the stock markets closed too. That should do it. The world at a standstill. And now who says time can't be stopped?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Source please?
> 
> I plead guilty to loading up a bit on hand soap for the home. I'm washing hands like it's nobody's business.




Health Minister Patty Hajdu is encouraging Canadians to stockpile food and medication in their homes in case they or a loved one falls ill with the novel coronavirus.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world...id19-covid-19-italy-china-canada-wuhan-deaths

Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said: “Everybody should take a deep breath. It’s about preparedness.”

He advised that businesses should consider giving employees paid sick leave to ensure they do not come to work when ill, and put in place contingency plans so everyone can work from home. Individuals should think about stockpiling food for at least three or four days — or ideally two weeks, in case there are lockdowns, he added.
https://www.ft.com/content/970aabb8-57fc-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20


Regarding risk, It's too early to know, the Closed Case Mortatlity is sitting somewhere around 7% for China right now. See other threads on transparency for details on why the CFR of 2% is "not representative" in the opinion of many (myself included).

Yes it's going to hit pre-existing conditions harder, but it has killed younger healthier people as well. It isn't SARS bad, but it is definitely a concern.


What is the opportunity cost of a case of beans and some extra toilet paper around the house?


----------



## james4beach

I think medication needs are important, for people with health issues. And I think basic hygiene items are essential (make sure you have enough soap and tissue paper). In this cold Winnipeg weather, my nose is always running.

But beyond that I'm not sure why one would stock up on other things like beans. There's also an issue here where we don't want the public to go into full on panic mode.

I encourage everyone to be sensible, especially on places like social media where it's possible to whip each other up into an emotional frenzy. Yes I am concerned, and I'm taking steps, but I still think it's mostly life as usual. Just more hand washing and being a bit more cautious than normal.


----------



## Beaver101

And the latest in Toronto, officials report 3 new cases of COVID-19.

https://www.cp24.com/ ... at video point 00:47, it outlines:



> *"All Individuals who travelled in the Business Class Section of Qatar Airways Flight QR483 and QR163, AirCanada Flight AC883 and on GO Bus#40 Eastbound on the Upper Deck may have been Exposed to this Positive Case of COVID-19 and are asked to contact York Region Public Health."*


I wonder how many travellers are going to volunteer this information ... Go Bus#40 ... time? Duh.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I think medication needs are important, for people with health issues. And I think basic hygiene items are essential (make sure you have enough soap and tissue paper). In this cold Winnipeg weather, my nose is always running.
> 
> But beyond that I'm not sure why one would stock up on other things like beans. There's also an issue here where we don't want the public to go into full on panic mode.
> 
> I encourage everyone to be sensible, especially on places like social media where it's possible to whip each other up into an emotional frenzy. Yes I am concerned, and I'm taking steps, but I still think it's mostly life as usual. Just more hand washing and being a bit more cautious than normal.


It's a basic recommendation to have at least 72 hours of all needs at all times.
With it being winter, I'd suggest more.
https://www.ready.gov/kit
https://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yprprdnssgd/index-en.aspx


And yes, there are people who literally don't have enough in their house to stay comfortable for 3 days.


The thing is, if you have a week or two of food and water, you're less likely to panic anyway.
The panic come when you have nothing now, and you find the store shelves empty.

For me, it's the middle of winter, power outtage or other problem for a few hours could be a problem.
I'd bet 90% of my neighbours don't have a non-electric heat source. FYI your High efficiency Gas furnace needs electricity.

Yeah, maybe I'm overly cautious. But looking at the data of a highly contagious 8% fatal diesease, I'm erring on the side of caution.
FYI the reason I say 8% is because Closed Case Mortality was reported at 8% when I started looking into COVID-19. That it is now "only" 7% doesn't really comfort me.


----------



## AltaRed

MrMatt said:


> I'm also surprised that BC isn't seeing a significant impact considering the size of the Chinese population there.


There is one presumptive case in the BC Interior Health region, an individual who traveled from Vancouver and is in isolation at home. Interior Health refuses to say how that person traveled which is kind of stupid. It makes a difference if that person traveled by car, by bus, or flew into the Kelowna, Kamloops or Penticton airport.

Added: Some press says it is a woman in her 30s who came in from Shanghai to YVR in Vancouver and drove home somewhere in the Interior Health region.


----------



## james4beach

Yeah they are now flagging a flight from Iran, a flight from Denmark, and a domestic commuter bus.

I suspect we are PARTLY experiencing an additional effect here, which is increase digital connection and social media. Back when SARS was spreading, there wasn't this much connectivity. I think as we hear all these scary notices we should keep in mind that the current technology allows much faster spread of information.

That may exaggerate how bad things look.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> But beyond that I'm not sure why one would stock up on other things like beans. There's also an issue here where we don't want the public to go into full on panic mode.


Stocking up on non-perishables isn't really panic imo it's just smart

During the massive snow storm in NFLD lots of people were literally crying and freaking out in front of news cameras because they didn't have food for like 2 days

A snow storm in Canada is rather benign! Buy some beans


----------



## Userkare

james4beach said:


> I plead guilty to loading up a bit on hand soap for the home. I'm washing hands like it's nobody's business.


Today, in the pharmacy section of the local grocery store, the shelves are bare where Purell Hand Sanitizer used to be. People will snatch up everything when they are panicked. Not a bad idea to buy extra canned or dry foods in case there's an outbreak in your area. Once it happens, there'll be a rush on buying everything. When we buy milk, we're freezing a bag or two, then rotating them with the fresh milk we buy.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Stocking up on non-perishables isn't really panic imo it's just smart
> 
> During the massive snow storm in NFLD lots of people were literally crying and freaking out in front of news cameras because they didn't have food for like 2 days
> 
> A snow storm in Canada is rather benign! Buy some beans


I'd argue not having a few days is pretty much irresponsible.
We have winter, rail blockades, and a pandemic scare. 

Reminds me of a snowstorm here outside London.
People were driving a somewhat bare portion of the highway, and they got stuck for a few days.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/sarnia-drivers-rescued-from-snowed-in-highway-1.895579

I remember there were people who didn't have winter coats, and diabetics who had no food.
I can't imagine the mindset of someone who heads out into a blizzard, without a jacket. 
But apparently there are lots of people who can't plan for their own basic needs.

Regarding hand sanitizer, it's very low stock everywhere, and very pricey on Amazon.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Making me feel a bit smug for a change about living off-grid in the middle of nowhere. Usually regarded by city folk as a bit nuts. Now, having no one else living within a mile seems like an added blessing beyond the usual peace, quiet and privacy. 

And I take back some of what I said about my wife hoarding food. A few years back, we put up an outbuilding equipped with a full second kitchen. We bought on craigslist a kitchen from a West Vancouver house that was being remodelled. All the cabinets, granite counters, sinks, etc. We bought a new wood cookstove for the main house and moved the old one to our new "summer kitchen". With her own canning and purchased non-perishable items, my wife has filled the cabinets in that kitchen. Now I see the sense in it! Of course, we can still go catch fish from our dock, or set the prawn traps in front of the house. Oysters, crabs, clams and mussels are everywhere, as is kelp and sea asparagus, etc., etc. We can always knock off a deer, a grouse or a duck or goose and harvest berries, plus avail of our own produce, so I think we are well-prepared to hunker down and take up the drawbridge for awhile.

My wife has also bought hand sanitizer (not lately) and has some on hand, but I have always preferred regular bar soap. But I learned from my granny how to make lye soap, with lye from wood ash. We heat and cook with wood, so no shortage there. I think old-fashioned lye soap is just as effective an anti-bacterial as the over-the-counter stuff. Definitely cheaper.


----------



## MrMatt

Mukhang pera said:


> Making me feel a bit smug for a change about living off-grid in the middle of nowhere. Usually regarded by city folk as a bit nuts. Now, having no one else living within a mile seems like an added blessing beyond the usual peace, quiet and privacy.
> 
> And I take back some of what I said about my wife hoarding food. A few years back, we put up an outbuilding equipped with a full second kitchen. We bought on craigslist a kitchen from a West Vancouver house that was being remodelled. All the cabinets, granite counters, sinks, etc. We bought a new wood cookstove for the main house and moved the old one to our new "summer kitchen". With her own canning and purchased non-perishable items, my wife has filled the cabinets in that kitchen. Now I see the sense in it! Of course, we can still go catch fish from our dock, or set the prawn traps in front of the house. Oysters, crabs, clams and mussels are everywhere, as is kelp and sea asparagus, etc., etc. We can always knock off a deer, a grouse or a duck or goose and harvest berries, plus avail of our own produce, so I think we are well-prepared to hunker down and take up the drawbridge for awhile.
> 
> My wife has also bought hand sanitizer (not lately) and has some on hand, but I have always preferred regular bar soap. But I learned from my granny how to make lye soap, with lye from wood ash. We heat and cook with wood, so no shortage there. I think old-fashioned lye soap is just as effective an anti-bacterial as the over-the-counter stuff. Definitely cheaper.


Handwashing with soap is more effective than hand sanitizer.
I've even heard nurses talk about hand sanitizer "works better", it's more convenient, but it isn't as effective.


----------



## james4beach

Hand sanitizer however is essential when you're out in public. You touch surfaces, door handles. Hands must be cleaned after that... sanitizer is a good step. Better yet, wash thoroughly when you get home.

Do not touch your face and especially DO NOT rub your eyes, nose, or mouth, unless your hands are totally clean. This goes a long way to preventing infection.

Sometimes my nose itches. I grab a tissue paper or a napkin and use it as a barrier, scratch a bit.

I'd like to help get my parents out of some of these habits. My dad is always itching his nose with his hands, and my mom is always rubbing her eyes. What a great way to get viruses into your body... we all need to watch our habits.


----------



## m3s

Mukhang pera said:


> I think old-fashioned lye soap is just as effective an anti-bacterial as the over-the-counter stuff. Definitely cheaper.


Soap is more effective according to CDC. Despite the creative "Kills 99.99% germs" hand sanitizer marketing. FDA warned Purell to stop making false claims and classifies it as an unapproved drug

Well if you ever do need anything delivered to that off grid island let me know. I could establish an early warning observation post, gather wood and monitor the traps in exchange for some canned goods


----------



## Mukhang pera

james4beach said:


> Hand sanitizer however is essential when you're out in public. You touch surfaces, door handles. Hands must be cleaned after that... sanitizer is a good step. Better yet, wash thoroughly when you get home.


The "better yet" part covers it. Not really essential to use hand sanitizer away from home. Just be aware of what you are touching and, as you say, keep hands away from face, eyes, etc. Then wash well on returning home.


----------



## cainvest

What WHO recommends ...

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf


----------



## Mukhang pera

m3s said:


> Well if you ever do need anything delivered to that off grid island let me know. I could establish an early warning observation post, gather wood and monitor the traps in exchange for some canned goods


We are gonna' keep that offer in mind!


----------



## sags

There is some comfort offered when they talk of fatalities only high among older folks and those with pre-existing conditions, but a medical expert on CNN said that "pre-existing" conditions includes about 50% of the US population...150,000,000 people.

Pre-existing conditions includes respiratory problems, heart problems, and perhaps for many people.....obesity.

Best for young people to carry on and old people stay home.


----------



## Eder

Userkare said:


> When we buy milk, we're freezing a bag or two, then rotating them with the fresh milk we buy.


UHT milk is your friend...I still using some I bought a year ago in Polynesia.


----------



## Eder

MrMatt;2074716
Regarding hand sanitizer said:


> According to some smart people hand sanitizers do nothing...soap & water like the heart surgeons use.


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> MrMatt;2074716
> Regarding hand sanitizer said:
> 
> 
> 
> According to some smart people hand sanitizers do nothing...soap & water like the heart surgeons use.
> 
> 
> 
> Handwashing with soap is better, but many people like hand sanitizer.
> It's also quite convenient.
Click to expand...


----------



## dotnet_nerd

I don't believe in those sanitizers. I think they're a bad idea.

Suppose they actually kill 99.9% of the pathogens. What about the hardy .1% that survive?

The stuff is genetically engineering 'superbugs'


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> What WHO recommends ...
> 
> https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf


Thanks. Copying & pasting some of it here

*Preventive and mitigation measures are key in both healthcare and community settings. The most effective preventive measures in the community include:*


 performing hand hygiene frequently with an alcohol-based hand rub if your hands are not visibly dirty or with soap and water if hands are dirty;
 avoiding touching your eyes, nose and mouth;
 practicing respiratory hygiene by coughing or sneezing into a bent elbow or tissue and then immediately disposing of the tissue;
 wearing a medical mask if you have respiratory symptoms and performing hand hygiene after disposing of the mask;
 maintaining social distance (a minimum of 1 m) from individuals with respiratory symptoms.


----------



## s1231

Perhaps, should aware of the risks from frequently using hand sanitizer or misusing antibiotics.

https://fortune.com/2018/08/03/bacteria-hand-sanitizer-resistance/
“Alcohol-based disinfectants are a key way to control hospital infections worldwide,” the write, but “the multidrug-resistant bacterium Enterococcus faecium has become increasingly tolerant to the alcohols in widely used hospital disinfectants such as hand rub solutions. These findings may help explain the recent increase in this pathogen in hospital settings.”


https://www.livescience.com/62133-antibiotics-virus-infection-mice.html
the dominance of "good" bacteria helps to prevent the establishment of harmful bacteria, such as Clostridium difficile (C. diff.), which can cause a difficult-to-treat infection that can be life-threatening.

....In the new study, the researchers infected mice with the Zika, West Nile and dengue viruses, all of which are part of a group of viruses called flaviviruses. All three viruses were more harmful to the mice who had received antibiotics prior to infection than to the mice that didn't receive antibiotics, the researchers found.

The researchers then examined West Nile virus in greater detail. This virus is typically spread by mosquitoes and can cause swelling in the brain. The researchers gave mice either a placebo or a cocktail of four antibiotics — vancomycin, neomycin, ampicillin and metronidazole — for two weeks before infecting them with the virus. About 80 percent of the mice that received no antibiotics survived the infection, while only 20 percent of the antibiotic-treated mice did.


https://www.earth.com/news/antibiotic-contamination-freshwater-risk/
“Generally, it’s seen as a problem for the health sector, as resistant bacteria can be spread within hospitals or through livestock,” said Rik Oldenkamp, the lead author of the study. “But there’s little awareness of the role of the environment in this problem, even though it becomes increasingly clear that the environment functions as a source of resistance for various pathogens.”

“The concentrations of this antibiotic can be harmful for bacteria in the water, and these bacteria in turn play an important role in various nutrient cycles,” said Oldenkamp. “Antibiotics can also have a negative impact on the effectiveness of bacteria colonies used in wastewater treatment.”


----------



## dotnet_nerd

That re-iterates what I said above.

It's better to wash your hands with plain soap and water. Simply wash the pathogens _down the drain_.

When you rub disinfectant into your hands (hospital gel pumps), your facilitating _natural selection_. You're waging war with the germs on your hands but will be unsuccessful in killing everything.

The alcohol will statistically kill off the weaker, leaving behind the hardier, stronger germs. Which can then flourish as their competition has been eliminated.


----------



## m3s

Embrace the germs to train your immune system!

The obsessive overuse of antibacterial disinfectants/sanitizer and antibiotic medicines has also waged war on the probiotics that are good for our digestive and immune systems imo. We are just creating superbugs and weakening a part of our health that we don't even seem to fully understand. Canada's archaic food guide barely even acknowledges beneficial probiotics even though it was just updated. Yet we wonder why kids are allergic to everything nowadays

I started home brewing kombucha awhile ago because I crave carbonated fruit juices from europe or real ginger beer but everything sold in america is either hfcs chemical junk or overpriced (even what we call "100% natural" is not). It's pretty cheap/simple to make once you get the hang of it, naturally carbonated and has more beneficial probiotics if you home brew (the expensive stuff sold in stores does not compare) Sauerkraut is another good fermented food.

Having a strong and healthy immune system is the key factor that determines whether you have a mild or severe reaction to these new virus


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Embrace the germs to train your immune system!
> 
> The obsessive overuse of antibacterial disinfectants/sanitizer and antibiotic medicines has also waged war on the probiotics that are good for our digestive and immune systems imo. We are just creating superbugs and weakening a part of our health that we don't even seem to fully understand. Canada's archaic food guide barely even acknowledges beneficial probiotics even though it was just updated. Yet we wonder why kids are allergic to everything nowadays
> 
> I started home brewing kombucha awhile ago because I crave carbonated fruit juices from europe or real ginger beer but everything sold in america is either hfcs chemical junk or overpriced (even what we call "100% natural" is not). It's pretty cheap/simple to make once you get the hang of it, naturally carbonated and has more beneficial probiotics if you home brew (the expensive stuff sold in stores does not compare) Sauerkraut is another good fermented food.
> 
> Having a strong and healthy immune system is the key factor that determines whether you have a mild or severe reaction to these new virus


I have tried to maek kombucha, but I can't seem to get it right.
Sauerkraut is "easy", but I failed on kimchi


----------



## OptsyEagle

dotnet_nerd said:


> I don't believe in those sanitizers. I think they're a bad idea.
> 
> Suppose they actually kill 99.9% of the pathogens. What about the hardy .1% that survive?
> 
> The stuff is genetically engineering 'superbugs'


That 0.1% contraction will probably save your life.

Have you ever wondered why a Bum can eat out of a garbage bin, behind a Burger King, and be fine, but if you or I did so, we would be sick for a week? It's because the Bum has a stronger immune system, that you or I. The first time he ate that food, he did get sick. Now he is stronger and a lot more immune to the pathogens inside rotting food.

Most viruses work the same way. I am not suggesting running out and attempting to get a small dose. If that was a good idea the smarter people would be putting it in a needle and calling it a vaccine. 

That said, your body will be the best defense against any virus. The problem for those dying is that they either got too large of dose, when they contracted it, or their immune system was too frail. Most likely the ones that are surviving are the ones that received a very small dose, when they contracted it. That gave their body enough time to attack it, before the virus grew enough to weaken them too much.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I have tried to maek kombucha, but I can't seem to get it right.


I use loose leaf black tea and raw cane sugar - as simple/pure as possible. It's really just fermented sweet tea

Avoid any adulterated/flavoured tea, processed sugars or washing with antibacterials. For the first batch you need to buy some unflavoured starter kombucha, future batches just use some from previous batch. Just needs to be room temp out of direct sun

I add some ginger root, cane sugar and lemon juice for the 2nd ferment. Canada Dry Ginger ale tastes like extremely weak chemical fructose water by comparison.

I also miss real sourdough from europe but I don't think I can manage fermenting that myself


----------



## sags

Everyone has a compromised immune system with this virus, because it is a novel virus. The most prominent risk factor is age, because age amplifies the other risk factors.

Climate change scientists are terrified that the melting tundra in the Arctic could release a group of ancient pathogens for which we have no immunity. 

Unfortunately, governments and politicians have decided that earning money is more important, and we see how well that is working out with just this one virus.

The coronavirus has shaved trillions of dollars from stock markets, and will cost trillions more in lost revenues from companies and people who aren't working.

It surprises people that a vaccine can't be developed in a couple of days. We have become vastly overconfident in our abilities and judgement.


----------



## Beaver101

I wonder if they ever developed a vaccine for the SARS virus.


----------



## james4beach

I understand the criticisms of antibacterial soap but I don't think alcohol-based hand sanitizer is in the same category.

And look at the WHO guidance that was posted up thread. This is a health authority and this is from two days ago:
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf

They definitely recommend hand sanitizer when soap and water isn't available. It is good to knock down the amount of viruses; killing off most of them is an advantage.

There is no question washing the hands with soap & water is superior, but I have not seen any reliable source which says alcohol based hand sanitizer is worse than leaving your hands alone. To me it seems clear that if you've touched public surfaces, and if soap & water is not available (e.g. you're in your car) then you are better off using alcohol based hand sanitizer than just doing nothing.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Everyone has a compromised immune system with this virus, because it is a novel virus. The most prominent risk factor is age, because age amplifies the other risk factors.
> 
> Climate change scientists are terrified that the melting tundra in the Arctic could release a group of ancient pathogens for which we have no immunity.
> 
> Unfortunately, governments and politicians have decided that earning money is more important, and we see how well that is working out with just this one virus.
> 
> The coronavirus has shaved trillions of dollars from stock markets, and will cost trillions more in lost revenues from companies and people who aren't working.
> 
> It surprises people that a vaccine can't be developed in a couple of days. We have become vastly overconfident in our abilities and judgement.


It's ALWAYS a novel (new) virus. If it wasn't new, we'd likely already have a partial immunity. Typically they're just variants of existing virii.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/


I don't care too much about the stock market prices, they're prone to volitile actions.

You say "earning money" is more important, really what are you suggesting?

Shut down the entire global economy?
This would dramatically increase poverty, cut short resources, and people will die.

The response has to be proportional to the risk.
The flu, even the common cold can and do kill people.
We don't typically go through mass quarantines and shutting down the economy for the typical flu. If it appears to be worse we take more stringent measures.

Like I posted probably a week ago, there is no right answer to how to handle this.
I think the japanese and israli responses are very aggressive, and may be warranted in their cases. 

If we suddenly declared a global 6 week quarantine for everyone to stay in their house for 6 weeks, that would likely stop COVID19.
It would also mean a lot of people dying.

Even here on the forum there are people suggesting that having a small stockpile of food is silly.
How many hours would it take to clear out the shelves of the local grocery store if they suddenly announced the trucks are stopping?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I understand the criticisms of antibacterial soap but I don't think alcohol-based hand sanitizer is in the same category.
> 
> And look at the WHO guidance that was posted up thread. This is a health authority and this is from two days ago:
> https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf
> 
> They definitely recommend hand sanitizer when soap and water isn't available. It is good to knock down the amount of viruses; killing off most of them is an advantage.
> 
> There is no question washing the hands with soap & water is superior, but I have not seen any reliable source which says alcohol based hand sanitizer is worse than leaving your hands alone. To me it seems clear that if you've touched public surfaces, and if soap & water is not available (e.g. you're in your car) then you are better off using alcohol based hand sanitizer than just doing nothing.


No reputable study suggests you shouldn't use hand sanitizer.

The "homemade" hand sanitizer with <60% alcohol should not be used however.


----------



## Mukhang pera

MrMatt said:


> The "homemade" hand sanitizer with <60% alcohol should not be used however.


Do you think my Bacardi 151 proof rum (75% alcohol) will pass muster as a hand sanitizer?


----------



## sags

_You say "earning money" is more important, really what are you suggesting?_

I am suggesting that the consequences of ignoring climate change in favor of profits and jobs, may be a price society wished they didn't have to pay in the future.

Maybe I am wrong. I hope so.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> _You say "earning money" is more important, really what are you suggesting?_
> 
> I am suggesting that the consequences of ignoring climate change in favor of profits and jobs, may be a price society wished they didn't have to pay in the future.
> 
> Maybe I am wrong. I hope so.


Really, we're going to bring "climate change" into this?
To be fair, if we kill off 5-10% of the global population and paralyze global trade, it will do great thing for our CO2 footprint.

It will dramaticaly lower quality of life, push millions into poverty and kill millions more due to lack of resources.

BUT CO2 will decrease!


----------



## jargey3000

https://imgur.com/gallery/52TGEnl


----------



## Longtimeago

Canada is still behind the curve on testing MrMatt and the USA even more so. I see our greatest risk as coming across the border from the USA.

I agree it is likely to get loose and spread widely but that doesn't mean we can't do more to try and limit it as much as possible. We still aren't testing enough people. For example, Scotland who only have a population of 5.5 million people have already tested about as many people as all of Canada has. Now they have even set up a 'drive through' testing program. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-51678008 That further reduces the risk of spread and the don't even have ONE confirmed case yet in all of Scotland.

There is also one in Antrim, N. Ireland and one in London, England. That to me is being PROACTIVE and finding ways to work to try and get AHEAD of a spread. We still have people walking into the normal Emergency Room at a hospital in say Toronto and announcing, 'I think I might have that virus', meanwhile exposing multiple people.

By the way, you realize that living in a higher density location will increase your chances. This is one example of where living in a city is not better than living in the country. Cities always suffer the most from any communicable disease. Maybe it's time to go live at the cottage for a few months.


----------



## m3s

We are basically a macroscopic scale pandemic virus with a high reproductive rate and high fatality rate to everything else


----------



## sags

Fewer than 500 tests have been conducted in the US. Test kits have been shipped and it is expected the number of infected people will explode.

The good news is that the fatality rate should come down if the number of infected increases dramatically.


----------



## sags

Did anyone else notice that Trump didn't look very well in the press conference ? He sounded like he was battling a cold of flu and looked worn out.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Canada is still behind the curve on testing MrMatt and the USA even more so. I see our greatest risk as coming across the border from the USA.
> 
> I agree it is likely to get loose and spread widely but that doesn't mean we can't do more to try and limit it as much as possible. We still aren't testing enough people. For example, Scotland who only have a population of 5.5 million people have already tested about as many people as all of Canada has. Now they have even set up a 'drive through' testing program. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-51678008 That further reduces the risk of spread and the don't even have ONE confirmed case yet in all of Scotland.
> 
> There is also one in Antrim, N. Ireland and one in London, England. That to me is being PROACTIVE and finding ways to work to try and get AHEAD of a spread. We still have people walking into the normal Emergency Room at a hospital in say Toronto and announcing, 'I think I might have that virus', meanwhile exposing multiple people.
> 
> By the way, you realize that living in a higher density location will increase your chances. This is one example of where living in a city is not better than living in the country. Cities always suffer the most from any communicable disease. Maybe it's time to go live at the cottage for a few months.


People living in cities, dependant on government systems vote left, for big government.
Thats why they dump massive cash into the big city voting blocks.


----------



## Eder

Beaver101 said:


> I wonder if they ever developed a vaccine for the SARS virus.


Yes they did...the members of the Toronto Maple Leafs were the 1st recipients.


----------



## Longtimeago

There are two aspects to this virus we need to think about. Will you get it, will you survive it. There is very little you can do to increase your chances of surviving it IF you get it. If you're lucky, you'll get a mild case and if you're unlucky it will develop into a life threatening case.

But, in terms of will you get it, there IS a lot you can do to try and increase your chances of avoiding getting it. That is what we all should be thinking about right now. How to avoid getting it. Even in places where it becomes widespread, the number of people who get it will vary. For example, the higher the density of people in a given space, the more likely you are to contract it. The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a good example of that. A small space with a large number of people resulting in a high percentage of people contracting the virus. So the obvious first thing we can do is AVOID large concentrations of people. The supermarket you go to in a city is probably far more densely populated than the one someone goes to in a small town. Cities are a bad place to be in situations such as this unfortunately.

Mukhang Pera has a valid point when he says his living 'off grid' out in the boonies has it's advantages in a situation like this. The less you interact with other people, the better your chances of avoiding contracting the virus. It is better to live in a small town than in a city; it is better to live on a farm than in a small town. If the virus shows up in your neighbourhood, it may be a good time to go live at the cottage for a few weeks.

The advice to be prepared with food and prescriptions is good advice. If you have enough food and water to last you several weeks, when the virus 'arrives' in your location, you have a better chance of riding it out and avoiding interacting with other people. If you have to go to the supermarket the day after new cases are reported where you live, that is not your best plan. Anyone saying they don't see any reason to stock up on food, isn't thinking very well. A virus arrives, peaks and then dies off. If you can ride out that time period, you have a better chance of avoiding contracting it.

Washing your hands and avoiding touching your face are good advice and should be followed but they ASSUME that you have something to avoid on your hands. So they are something you do AFTER possible contact with the virus. It would be better to avoid CONTACT to begin with. Anything you can do in that regard is something you should already be doing. This virus is going to get loose, the only question is when it will arrive in your neighbourhood. Get prepared.

People sitting back saying, 'oh it only kills old people and I don't see any reason to stock up on food, etc.' are being foolish. Thinking, 'I will be OK' even if true, is a truly selfish way of thinking. If you contract it but you have only a mild reaction, what about if you pass it on to someone else and they die? Responsible thinking is, 'I don't want to get this for my own sake and I don't want to get this and pass it on to other people, for their sake.' It is not just about you and your potential outcome. That old saying applies 100%, 'if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem.'


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Fewer than 500 tests have been conducted in the US. Test kits have been shipped and it is expected the number of infected people will explode.
> 
> The good news is that the fatality rate should come down if the number of infected increases dramatically.


Are you joking sags? The percentage of fatalities does not decrease with an increase in spread. If a virus has a 1% fatality rate in 1000 people, then 10 people will die. If a virus has a 1% fatality rate in 1,000,000 people then 10,000 people will die. The Fatality Rate remains constant.

What you were perhaps trying to refer to but worded absolutely incorrectly if you were, applies when an actual fatality rate remains UNKNOWN. But once enough cases exist on which to base a fatality rate, that rate remains constant regardless of how many more cases occur afterwards. The flu has a KNOWN fatality rate of around .01%. In a bad year it infects more and it kills more in actual numbers of deaths but the RATE remains the same.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Fewer than 500 tests have been conducted in the US. Test kits have been shipped and it is expected the number of infected people will explode.
> 
> The good news is that the fatality rate should come down if the number of infected increases dramatically.


Scotland with a population of only 5.4 million have done more tests than that and don't even have one reported case yet. What's more, they have now started 'drive through' testing at an Edinburgh hospital to further reduce the chances of transmission by suspected cases. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-51678008

The USA is so far behind the curve they can't even see the curve up ahead. Unfortunately, I believe that is where we are going to get hit from, border crossings from the USA. We are very vulnerable to what happens in the USA that we cannot control.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> What's more, they have now started 'drive through' testing at an Edinburgh hospital to further reduce the chances of transmission by suspected cases. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-51678008


So how is this actually better than testing in the US and Canada?


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> So how is this actually better than testing in the US and Canada?


Convenient, sure, and likely to reduce spread, absolutely.

The problem is I don't think they have a good test yet, there seem to be multiple false negatives.


----------



## sags

Longtimeago said:


> Are you joking sags? The percentage of fatalities does not decrease with an increase in spread. If a virus has a 1% fatality rate in 1000 people, then 10 people will die. If a virus has a 1% fatality rate in 1,000,000 people then 10,000 people will die. The Fatality Rate remains constant.
> 
> What you were perhaps trying to refer to but worded absolutely incorrectly if you were, applies when an actual fatality rate remains UNKNOWN. But once enough cases exist on which to base a fatality rate, that rate remains constant regardless of how many more cases occur afterwards. The flu has a KNOWN fatality rate of around .01%. In a bad year it infects more and it kills more in actual numbers of deaths but the RATE remains the same.


Currently the fatality rate is the ratio of known deaths compared to the known number of infected. 

The number of infected persons will increase with broader testing, but the number of deaths won't because those people aren't dead.

It is much easier to count the dead than the infected.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Currently the fatality rate is the ratio of known deaths compared to the known number of infected.
> 
> The number of infected persons will increase with broader testing, but the number of deaths won't because those people aren't dead.
> 
> It is much easier to count the dead than the infected.


"Currently the fatality rate is the ratio of known deaths compared to the known number of infected."
That's the CFR or case fatality rate, a horribly flawed measure that I've ranted about extensively.

Look at the "outcome of cases"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
That's a better "worst case" IMO.
broader testing should bring about more cases that recover.

From that graph it looks like it's trending to 5-6%, which is still terrible, but at least it's not SARS.



How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.


From this portion
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

"But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]"


----------



## sags

Even "outcome of cases" is only dealing with cases where the people are sick enough to seek medical help to be enumerated. 

Widened testing will reveal how many people are actually infected but not sick enough to seek medical treatment.


----------



## sags

There are now 11 confirmed infections in Ontario. Many of the latest infections are tied to travel from Iran.

The government should halt flights from Iran if they can't ensure passengers aren't bringing in the infection.

The US has further tightened their border security. Time for Canada to do the same.


----------



## sags

The Canadian government advises that people stockpile supplies of medications.

I asked our pharmacist and he said they are waiting for guidance from the Canadian government. He also said the insurance companies often won't pay for the prescriptions in advance.

What is the Canadian government doing and who is in charge ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The Canadian government advises that people stockpile supplies of medications.
> 
> I asked our pharmacist and he said they are waiting for guidance from the Canadian government. He also said the insurance companies often won't pay for the prescriptions in advance.
> 
> What is the Canadian government doing and who is in charge ?


Nobody knows. To be fair, our incompetent PM appointed an equally incompetent Deputy PM, so it isn't unexpected.


----------



## james4beach

Interesting discovery in the US:
Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests

Based on studying samples of infected people, researchers believe that the coronavirus might have actually been spreading in Washington State for several weeks. They suspect it has been spreading around Washington State since mid January.



> If the virus has been spreading undetected in Washington since mid-January, that could mean that anywhere from 150 to 1,500 people may have it, with about 300 to 500 people the most likely range, said Dr. Mike Famulare, a principal research scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wa., who performed the analysis. These people “have either been infected and recovered, or currently are infected now,” he said.
> 
> Many of those people would now be in the early stages of incubating the virus, and might not yet be contagious, Dr. Famulare said.
> . . .
> 
> She said that it was important to remember that national testing capabilities have only been available for about six weeks, and in Washington, health personnel have only had the ability to test locally for a few days. “*It is definitely possible that Covid-19 has been circulating, with people experiencing mild symptoms just like the flu*,’’ she said.


----------



## jargey3000

....so, I learned this morning how soap kills the virus, and thus washing your hands with soap kills it on your hands...
very interesting....something to do with lipids or something, think the guy said...
so..if a simple bar of ivory soap kills it on hands, why so hard to develop a vaccine for inside the body?
should i start drinking that liquid hand soap in the bathroom?


----------



## Beaver101

> ... should i start drinking that liquid hand soap in the bathroom?


 ... ya, you do that ... start with the one near the kitchen sink (presumably you have one there) and see how delicious it tastes (choice of green apple, orange or ruby grapefruit flavours) and have it slide down your throat. That ought to kill the good beer germs in your belly too. [Just kiddo with you here. :smiley_simmons:]


----------



## MrMatt

jargey3000 said:


> ....so, I learned this morning how soap kills the virus, and thus washing your hands with soap kills it on your hands...
> very interesting....something to do with lipids or something, think the guy said...
> so..if a simple bar of ivory soap kills it on hands, why so hard to develop a vaccine for inside the body?
> should i start drinking that liquid hand soap in the bathroom?


High temperatures also kill the virus, though I don't think you should raise your body temperature to 450 degrees.

It's easy to kill the disease and kill the patient, much harder to kill only one of them.


----------



## Beaver101

Eder said:


> Yes they did...the members of the Toronto Maple Leafs were the 1st recipients.


 ... didn't see your response until now. Are you serious? Maybe I should go google and find out myself ... I just don't recall.


----------



## sags

If one of us is in the emergency department and needs a ventilator and some famous person comes in and needs a ventilator.....guess who is getting the ventilator.

A hockey player gets a knee injury and a day later it's announced their surgery was successful. 

Anyone else will wait 6 months to see the specialist and another 9 to 18 months for the surgery. Somebody got "bumped" from their surgery to allow the hockey player's surgery.

That is just the way it is.


----------



## sags

This virus could bring down the Trump Presidency. Even stalwart Republicans are getting pissed off with the Trump administration's readiness.

[video]https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/02/28/sen_kennedy_grills_acting_dhs_secretary_americans_ deserve_answers_on_coronavirus_and_im_not_getting_ them_from_you.html[/video]


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> This virus could bring down the Trump Presidency. Even stalwart Republicans are getting pissed off with the Trump administration's readiness.
> 
> [video]https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/02/28/sen_kennedy_grills_acting_dhs_secretary_americans_ deserve_answers_on_coronavirus_and_im_not_getting_ them_from_you.html[/video]


Selective outrage. Obama wait several months to do anything about H1N1 and while he dithered millions of Americans were affected and 1000 died.


----------



## Longtimeago

Florida now appears to have 2 cases but not yet confirmed by testing. One has a known connection to travel from Italy but the other has no known connections. ie. apparent 'community spread'. http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2020/03/030120-two-presumptive-positive-covid19-cases.pr.html

The info from Washington State clearly indicates community spread and experts are now saying they suspect it has been doing so for several weeks and they suspect there are more cases in Washington, Oregon and California that just haven't been detected. 

Once community spread begins, it can spread much faster and becomes much harder to try and isolate people. Now I'm thinking about all the people planning on visiting Florida for March break. Then I'm thinking about all those returning to Canada.

Another interesting comment I heard from an infection specialist in Toronto today was that airport 'screening' cannot be expected to detect more than 25-50% of those infected. As far as I know, those driving across the border are not even subjected to that. It seems to me that we have a good chance of seeing community spread here in Canada after people start returning from their March break.

I'm pretty much convinced at this point that the USA has no handle on the virus at all in terms of spread containment.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> People living in cities, dependant on government systems vote left, for big government.
> Thats why they dump massive cash into the big city voting blocks.


What has that got to do with the topic? Going off on one of your personal political rants really doesn't paint you in a good light MrMatt. Stick to the subject of a thread, any thread.


----------



## AltaRed

I am more than convinced the USA has no f*cking idea what they are doing. They have not woken up to anything yet. Doctors are even complaining that CDC is not releasing key information on test results of cases so that doctors are better equipped to deal with diagnosis and treatment.

I also think we will have significant contamination in Canada from returning snowbirds and spring break refugees.

Added: Think about how surreal Americans are about this given attendance at college and professional basketball games, hockey, and other such events in closed arenas. Never mind NASCAR events with crowds around concession stands, political rallies and the like. Gawd...those idiots are falling over themselves trying to cause a pandemic.


----------



## james4beach

This is where fear might be helpful. If people become fearful enough, at least they should (hopefully) stop going to those packed arenas and other close proximity events.

I must go to a funeral today and my plan is to make an appearance, stick around a bit, talk, and leave as soon as we can. I'm not lingering in a closed space with 50 people for hours. I will also avoid shaking hands, although it's clearly going to upset some of the older / seniors around.

Does anyone have good advice on how to turn down a handshake (say from a 65 year, old fashioned person) without hurting feelings?


----------



## Prairie Guy

james4beach said:


> Does anyone have good advice on how to turn down a handshake (say from a 65 year, old fashioned person) without hurting feelings?


Carry a Kleenex in your hand and tell them you have a cold/flu.


----------



## like_to_retire

james4beach said:


> Does anyone have good advice on how to turn down a handshake (say from a 65 year, old fashioned person) without hurting feelings?


My advice is to shake anyone's hand who wants to shake. It ain't the handshake, it's the touching your face - simply don't do that without washing your hands first.

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> People living in cities, dependant on government systems vote left, for big government.
> Thats why they dump massive cash into the big city voting blocks.
> 
> 
> 
> What has that got to do with the topic? Going off on one of your personal political rants really doesn't paint you in a good light MrMatt. Stick to the subject of a thread, any thread.
Click to expand...

You commented that people in cities are at higher risk. 
I commented that the government like having people at high risk and being dependent on the government.

In this case the governments policy of pushing increasingly higher population density is contributing to the problem.

Bad policy and a lack of leadership is making this problem worse than. It should be. 

Heck the government has rules that pharmacists can't give patients the prescription stockpile that the government is telling them to get.


----------



## jargey3000

shake a hand or 2, then immediately go wash your hands.


----------



## leoc2

james4beach said:


> This is where fear...
> Does anyone have good advice on how to turn down a handshake (say from a 65 year, old fashioned person) without hurting feelings?


Offer up a fist pump...then wash your knuckles when you are done the visitation.


----------



## jargey3000

my neice works at walmart. she's in toy dept. & handles tons of games & toys, most all made in china, every day.
should she be concerned about catching the virus? should she be wearing gloves?


----------



## MrMatt

jargey3000 said:


> my neice works at walmart. she's in toy dept. & handles tons of games & toys, most all made in china, every day.
> should she be concerned about catching the virus? should she be wearing gloves?


Don't touch face before washing hands or hand sanitizer. 
Don't get coughed on. 

Same advise as for flu transmission.


----------



## Eder

Beaver101 said:


> ... ya, you do that ... start with the one near the kitchen sink (presumably you have one there) and see how delicious it tastes (choice of green apple, orange or ruby grapefruit flavours) and have it slide down your throat. That ought to kill the good beer germs in your belly too. [Just kiddo with you here. :smiley_simmons:]


Back on the farm my mom used to wash my mouth out with soap quite often...the worst was our home made lard soap. I think it worked as I never developed Corona virua as a youth.


----------



## Eder

Beaver101 said:


> ... didn't see your response until now. Are you serious? Maybe I should go google and find out myself ... I just don't recall.



It was quite a contentious issue at the time...limited vaccine so who is most important to keep alive...etc


----------



## sags

We still have a couple of full body rain suits from our cottage owning days. A mask, goggles and gloves and we should be alright to go out if necessary.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Does anyone have good advice on how to turn down a handshake (say from a 65 year, old fashioned person) without hurting feelings?


We should adopt bowing instead

I've learned to cough/sneeze into my elbow but it took some reprogramming. This has been recommended since the SARS outbreak and kids are now taught this

Millennials and older were taught to "cover your mouth" with your hand and of course then shake everyone else's hand

Obama tried to start the elbow/fist bump. Might not be appropriate to try at a funeral


----------



## BoringInvestor

jargey3000 said:


> my neice works at walmart. she's in toy dept. & handles tons of games & toys, most all made in china, every day.
> should she be concerned about catching the virus? should she be wearing gloves?


Should she be concerned about items that have been in transit and storage for days/week/months?
No. That seems beyond reasonable for concern.


----------



## BoringInvestor

MrMatt said:


> You commented that people in cities are at higher risk.
> I commented that the government like having people at high risk and being dependent on the government.


Why do you think Trump or Harper likes people being high risk, or wants more people dependent on the government?


----------



## AltaRed

BoringInvestor said:


> Should she be concerned about items that have been in transit and storage for days/week/months?
> No. That seems beyond reasonable for concern.


The virus has a limited shelf life on inanimate objects. https://www.sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on-a-surface

The higher risk is a person touching an object that has been recently touched by an infectious person.


----------



## Beaver101

^^^ Now a trivia question:

If you were "handed" a $100 bill today from a "stranger" (on the street, in a store, coffee-shop or where-ever) who just coughed on it, would you accept it? He/she wasn't wearing gloves and you have no idea if he/she is infected (don't look sick).


----------



## james4beach

Thanks for the comments. Boy this is tricky; social pressure is a powerful thing.

At my US office, management set the direction by explicitly discouraging hand shaking. I like that they did this with staff health in mind. But it's a totally different matter with acquaintances in a casual setting; many of these people may not share my concern about, um, dying from illness.

I guess I may get stuck shaking some hands but I will wash hands right away or use hand sanitizer discreetly. It's also important what you do with your hands... don't touch your face, head, absolutely never touch your nose, don't eat.

I think diligence and self control (self awareness) can go a long way. Even when I've been together with family during holidays, with one person very sick with a cold/flu, we've been able to completely avoid having it spread among people. We remind each other to wash hands, use kleenex, etc. I was sick with a very bad cold (could have been the flu) around Christmas and neither of my parents caught it... which is really encouraging.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Maybe you can wear gloves or mitts at that time? Hopefully the other part(ies) is doing the same and no-one share their germs this way. 

As for the work-place, if you're in a clients-facing position, I don't think you can avoid the basic customary North American hands-shaking during business trips/settings.


----------



## m3s

Harvard Health: Fist bump better than handshake for cleanliness



> Shaking hands transmitted 2 times more bacteria than high fives, and 10 times more bacteria than bumping fists. Their results are published in the August 2014 issue of the American Journal of Infection Control.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> As for the work-place, if you're in a clients-facing position, I don't think you can avoid the basic customary North American hands-shaking during business trips/settings.


Hand shakes are not very common among the younger generation.

The irony of course is that older people are the ones most likely to get seriously ill (or die) from COVID-19.


----------



## doctrine

There are 6 deaths in Washington State. Even using a conservative 1% death rate, there are at least 600 infected. And deaths are a huge lagging factor - actual infections in the area more likely to be much higher. And currently there are 18 confirmed tests. Likely less than 1 in 50 or more infections identified.

What is this going to look like in the US in a few weeks? There are zero travel restrictions or other verifications within the country.


----------



## MrMatt

doctrine said:


> There are 6 deaths in Washington State. Even using a conservative 1% death rate, there are at least 600 infected. And deaths are a huge lagging factor - actual infections in the area more likely to be much higher. And currently there are 18 confirmed tests. Likely less than 1 in 50 or more infections identified.
> 
> What is this going to look like in the US in a few weeks? There are zero travel restrictions or other verifications within the country.



Well, with a 2 week incubation period, in 1-2 weeks we're going to see a big jump in cases. Also they might get the kinks worked out of their testing program.
I'd expect we'll see the panic in 2-4 weeks, when we have several thousand cases and are creeping up on a hundred deaths.


----------



## james4beach

This is unbelievable, 6 dead in WA.

Now to be fair, the USA likely has far superior healthcare facilities, and therefore much better testing & reporting, than developing nations. So I think all stats we see have to be taken with a grain of salt, when comparing global numbers.


----------



## sags

The city in WA are buying a motel to host the quarantined people. Not a bad idea to have one place for all the infected so they can manage them and keep people out.


----------



## jargey3000

sags said:


> The city in WA are buying a motel to host the quarantined people. Not a bad idea to have one place for all the infected so they can manage them and keep people out.


...why do i feel this whole thing is getting juuuuust a bit freaky?....


----------



## MrMatt

jargey3000 said:


> ...why do i feel this whole thing is getting juuuuust a bit freaky?....


Because we weren't ready for SARS, and we want to do better this time.


----------



## Userkare

I'm beginning to fear the virus less - after all it's really just a cold /flu - than how people are reacting to it. The lines at Costco were longer than usual today. I looked in carts and saw a lot of bottled water and toilet paper; I guess they're anticipating a shi**y situation?

I dunno, on the one hand it isn't a bad idea to always have enough 'survival' supplies on hand to last a week or so in case of a bad storm, extended power outage, etc. But seriously, how much TP do people go through? There were some carts with 3 or more packages of 30 rolls ea. Wow, crap much?


----------



## MrMatt

Userkare said:


> I'm beginning to fear the virus less - after all it's really just a cold /flu - than how people are reacting to it. The lines at Costco were longer than usual today. I looked in carts and saw a lot of bottled water and toilet paper; I guess they're anticipating a shi**y situation?
> 
> I dunno, on the one hand it isn't a bad idea to always have enough 'survival' supplies on hand to last a week or so in case of a bad storm, extended power outage, etc. But seriously, how much TP do people go through? There were some carts with 3 or more packages of 30 rolls ea. Wow, crap much?


It isn't just a cold/flu.
I'm also more concerned with the panic response than the diesease itself.

The recommendation is at least 72 hours of everything, (water, food heat, light etc). 
I personally think a week or two is a good idea. If I get really sick and don't feel like going to the store for a week, it would be nice to have the food right here in my residence.


----------



## james4beach

Had some drinks tonight with a friend who's a doctor in a hospital. Here were his thoughts

- thinks COVID-19 is about as dangerous as influenza
- he stressed that influenza is very dangerous -- kills a lot of people
- says we should avoid unnecessary flights and big social gatherings
- says that influenza already overloads hospitals
- his biggest concern is that COVID-19 will overload, stress out hospitals, emergency, intensive care
- he doesn't think hospitals have enough capacity to handle this if it spreads aggressively

*Edit*: there are regional issues here, as hospitals in Manitoba recently had aggressive resource cuts ('efficiency' policy of Conservative government) so this doc is probably focused primarily on our MB situation... it might be better where you live. Hopefully your government did not slash your hospital resources, but sadly, ours did.

In short he's concerned that our hospitals can't handle the number of cases which _could_ appear. But he's categorizing it more or less as the same problem as influenza. It's just like having "more flu" which is really bad given that hospitals could barely keep up with the flu.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Userkare said:


> I dunno, on the one hand it isn't a bad idea to always have enough 'survival' supplies on hand to last a week or so in case of a bad storm, extended power outage, etc. But seriously, how much TP do people go through? There were some carts with 3 or more packages of 30 rolls ea. Wow, crap much?


How is it not possible to have a week of supplies on hand? Fresh stuff in the fridge for 2/3 days, then there are the dry goods (pasta and rice, etc), plus canned and packaged food, a freezer, etc.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> Had some drinks tonight with a friend who's a doctor in a hospital. Here were his thoughts
> 
> - thinks COVID-19 is about as dangerous as influenza
> - he stressed that influenza is very dangerous -- kills a lot of people
> - says we should avoid unnecessary flights and big social gatherings
> - says that influenza already overloads hospitals
> - his biggest concern is that COVID-19 will overload, stress out hospitals, emergency, intensive care
> - he doesn't think hospitals have enough capacity to handle this if it spreads aggressively
> 
> *Edit*: there are regional issues here, as hospitals in Manitoba recently had aggressive resource cuts ('efficiency' policy of Conservative government) so this doc is probably focused primarily on our MB situation... it might be better where you live. Hopefully your government did not slash your hospital resources, but sadly, ours did.
> 
> In short he's concerned that our hospitals can't handle the number of cases which _could_ appear. But he's categorizing it more or less as the same problem as influenza. It's just like having "more flu" which is really bad given that hospitals could barely keep up with the flu.


That statement that it is about as dangerous as influenza is a little alarming from a medical professional. 

China doesn't shut down its entire economy for a month because of the flu. And Wuhan/Hubei remain under quarantine over 6 weeks later. 

The flu is bad. But this is worse, and far more contagious.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> That statement that it is about as dangerous as influenza is a little alarming from a medical professional.
> 
> China doesn't shut down its entire economy for a month because of the flu. And Wuhan/Hubei remain under quarantine over 6 weeks later.
> 
> The flu is bad. But this is worse, and far more contagious.


Could be that he doesn't have sufficient information on it. Doctors don't know everything, and he doesn't work with infectious diseases.


----------



## cainvest

doctrine said:


> The flu is bad. But this is worse, and far more contagious.


More contagious?

Read this statement from WHO ...

If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now, and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible.

Full briefing here -> https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---2-march-2020


----------



## james4beach

Wow thanks cainvest. Very interesting. WHO is saying that containment is feasible and transmission can be stopped. Now it's up to government, and also all of us, to be extremely diligent... it CAN be contained and is not spreading as fast as influenza would. If we are all on our highest alert, it seems we can stop this.


Korea’s situation also underlines that this a unique virus with unique features. This virus is not influenza.

We are in unchartered territory. *We have never before seen a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission, but which can also be contained with the right measures.

If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now, and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible.

But containment of COVID-19 is feasible and must remain the top priority for all countries.*

With early, aggressive measures, countries can stop transmission and save lives.

We appreciate that people are debating whether this is a pandemic or not. We are monitoring the situation every moment of every day, and analyzing the data.

I have said it before and I’ll say it again: WHO will not hesitate to describe this as a pandemic if that’s what the evidence suggests.

But we need to see this in perspective. Of the 88,913 cases reported globally so far, 90% are in China, mostly in one province.

Of the 8739 cases reported outside China, 81% are from four countries.

Of the other 57 affected countries, 38 have reported 10 cases or less, 19 have reported only one cases, and a good number of countries have already contained the virus and have not reported in the last two weeks.​


----------



## doctrine

If you don't test, you don't have a problem. The US only started testing seriously maybe 4-5 days ago. Now they have identified community transmission cases in nearly every region of the country. It is spreading throughout Europe with no controls whatsoever. South Korea is testing over 10,000 a day. The US has barely tested 1000 yet. Canada maybe 2000 in the last month.

I agree with his statement that it can be contained. But not until countries take measures like China and South Korea.

This feels like groundhog day, where countries refuse to admit there is a problem until they have to. Iran is in denial. So is Europe. Most people here think it is just the flu. I talked to people today who thought it blew over already.

Canada is wide open. Multiple direct flights from Iran, South Korea continuing. Dozens of flights from Europe every day, where widespread transmission is occurring. No screenings. Maybe some questions, but no tests. People lie. China has thermal temperatures everywhere in public, and the police come and get you if you have a fever.

It can take 2 to 3 weeks before you get infected until you show up at the hospital requiring treatment. And there are 4-5 other cases for every hospital one, all spreading the disease. I am convinced community transmission will be confirmed in Canada by the end of the week.


----------



## cainvest

doctrine said:


> It can take 2 to 3 weeks before you get infected until you show up at the hospital requiring treatment. And there are 4-5 other cases for every hospital one, all spreading the disease. I am convinced community transmission will be confirmed in Canada by the end of the week.


If you're seriously concerned about your health no doubt you should take measures to protect yourself. I wouldn't be waiting for the Canada to close it's borders, stop air travel or push manditory testing and quarantine.


----------



## james4beach

Are we going to stop travel between US as well? Ten state are reporting cases. By some measures it's a rather large number of cases in the US ... on par with Singapore and Hong Kong and US deaths are on par with Japan and the Diamond Princess ship.

I agree it might be reasonable to stop travel with some countries but I would defer that judgement to experts on infectious diseases, as it's not as simple as looking at the statistic numbers. One also has to consider other factors, like whether it's believed to be localized to pockets of infection in these countries, or extremely widespread, not to mention the relative difference in time of starting to record numbers in different countries.

For example stopping all travel with Asian countries may be silly when we have massive amounts of US cross-border traffic (a far larger number of people entering) and the US has a large number of cases. I don't know... I defer to experts in infectious diseases.


----------



## doctrine

I am not concerned about my health, I am concerned that the country is not taking this seriously enough, and falling behind. 

I believe we should be at least testing people who arrive from high risk areas. If 300 people fly here direct from Tehran, everyone should be tested - up to 50% of cases can show no symptoms. Currently, no testing is done unless they have visible symptoms. 

I believe we should be testing anyone who shows up at a hospital with flu like symptoms. Currently, no testing is done unless you are in a very serious medical condition, and even then, maybe not without a travel history to a high risk area.

Basically, we are waiting here for someone to show up at a hospital with "medically serious/critical" conditions, probably ICU and/or death like the Washington State cases, before we have a confirmation of a community outbreak. By that time, there could be hundreds of cases on the loose. 

I would be surprised if there is not a community case identified by the end of the week. Some regions are considering more testing. Hopefully they pick up something so radars everywhere start going off.


----------



## MrMatt

doctrine said:


> I am not concerned about my health, I am concerned that the country is not taking this seriously enough, and falling behind.
> 
> I believe we should be at least testing people who arrive from high risk areas. If 300 people fly here direct from Tehran, everyone should be tested - up to 50% of cases can show no symptoms. Currently, no testing is done unless they have visible symptoms.
> 
> I believe we should be testing anyone who shows up at a hospital with flu like symptoms. Currently, no testing is done unless you are in a very serious medical condition, and even then, maybe not without a travel history to a high risk area.
> 
> Basically, we are waiting here for someone to show up at a hospital with "medically serious/critical" conditions, probably ICU and/or death like the Washington State cases, before we have a confirmation of a community outbreak. By that time, there could be hundreds of cases on the loose.
> 
> I would be surprised if there is not a community case identified by the end of the week. Some regions are considering more testing. Hopefully they pick up something so radars everywhere start going off.


The testing doesn't work until it's progressed quite far. There are many cases of the same person being tested repeatedly and not showing positive until later tests.
That's interesting.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Had some drinks tonight with a friend who's a doctor in a hospital. Here were his thoughts
> 
> - thinks COVID-19 is about as dangerous as influenza
> - he stressed that influenza is very dangerous -- kills a lot of people
> - says we should avoid unnecessary flights and big social gatherings
> - says that influenza already overloads hospitals
> - his biggest concern is that COVID-19 will overload, stress out hospitals, emergency, intensive care
> - he doesn't think hospitals have enough capacity to handle this if it spreads aggressively
> 
> *Edit*: there are regional issues here, as hospitals in Manitoba recently had aggressive resource cuts ('efficiency' policy of Conservative government) so this doc is probably focused primarily on our MB situation... it might be better where you live. Hopefully your government did not slash your hospital resources, but sadly, ours did.
> 
> In short he's concerned that our hospitals can't handle the number of cases which _could_ appear. But he's categorizing it more or less as the same problem as influenza. It's just like having "more flu" which is really bad given that hospitals could barely keep up with the flu.


I agree that most of what he says is true.
Except
"- thinks COVID-19 is about as dangerous as influenza"

That is a statement clearly NOT true according to current data.
It is more fatal, and appears to spread more. (much higher R0 value)

If you have something that is both more fatal, and more likely to spread, it would seem that it is potentially more dangerous.
"More Flu" that happens to be spreading faster than normal, and is orders of magnitude more fatal.

Now maybe he thinks all the data is wrong. which is fair, but the data from South Korea and Italy, also shows a much higher fatality rate than the Flu.
The spread has a lot of questions, but they're taking extraordinary measures to slow it, and global cases are still climbing.


When doctors are dismissing the risks, that concerns me. It's like when I've heard medical professionals say that hand sanitizer is better than handwashing, and other such nonsense.

Myself I'm also more concerned with a public overreaction than the disease itself at this time, but we'll see.


----------



## sags

Post on Reddit.....The Ontario PC Ford government eliminated 10 paid emergency days off and replaced them with 8 unpaid days off.....including for bereavement subject to the employer's demand for proof. Now if people stay home for the coronavirus they don't get paid, so a lot of people will go to work sick and infect others. This will primarily affect non-union low paid service jobs that are the ones dealing with the public the most. Spending cuts due to ideology have consequences.

_Previous Ontario labour law called for a minimum of 2 paid emergency days and 8 unpaid emergency days off. These could be used for personal sick leave, family illness, bereavement, pet emergency, whatever. 

An employer may not ask for a Dr note.

The "Making Ontario Open For Business Act" (yes, that is the real title of the legislation...) of 2018 repealed this minimum labour law provision and replaced it with: you have three unpaid sick days, three unpaid family emergency days, and two unpaid bereavement days. The employer can now demand reasonable proof (including a Dr note) for each unpaid day used._


----------



## MrMatt

Ontario never had 10 paid sick days, or at least not in the past few decades. It was 3 paid days, now it is 2 paid sick days minimum.
In my office, we have unpaid sick days, until the business suffers, I've never required doctors notes. 
That being said I expect my staff to be professional, which means that if you would just be a zombie at your desk, it's better to stay home anyway.


----------



## sags

The story is in the Toronto Star today.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/po...policy-is-dangerous-as-coronavirus-looms.html

The Ford government eliminated 10 days off (2 paid and 8 unpaid) and replaced it with 8 days off (all unpaid and may require proof to employer).

People should check with their employer on how many sick days they are entitled to. If a major pandemic breaks out, the government is going to have to supply cash to people.

_Note.....my initial post was wrong. Of the 10 days allowed before the changes only 2 were paid._


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> If a major pandemic breaks out, the government is going to have to supply cash to people.


Sags, is there anything in this world that is not the responsibility of the government, in your view?


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> sags said:
> 
> 
> 
> If a major pandemic breaks out, the government is going to have to supply cash to people.
> 
> 
> 
> Sags, is there anything in this world that is not the responsibility of the government, in your view?
Click to expand...

Paying taxes to run the government. 
Also paying people lots and lots of money to support the governments "natural" budget growth rate of 4-6%.


----------



## Prairie Guy

OptsyEagle said:


> Sags, is there anything in this world that is not the responsibility of the government, in your view?


Sags wants full government control of everything. Cradle to grave. Even though full government control has a historical 100% failure rate, it will magically be different this time.

Sanders promised 100% open borders and the abolition of ICE the day he is elected. If he's elected expect more viruses and plagues to infect the US and Canada.


----------



## Prairie Guy

duplicate


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> Had some drinks tonight with a friend who's a doctor in a hospital. Here were his thoughts
> 
> - thinks COVID-19 is about as dangerous as influenza
> - he stressed that influenza is very dangerous -- kills a lot of people
> - says we should avoid unnecessary flights and big social gatherings
> - says that influenza already overloads hospitals
> - his biggest concern is that COVID-19 will overload, stress out hospitals, emergency, intensive care
> - he doesn't think hospitals have enough capacity to handle this if it spreads aggressively
> 
> *Edit*: there are regional issues here, as hospitals in Manitoba recently had aggressive resource cuts ('efficiency' policy of Conservative government) so this doc is probably focused primarily on our MB situation... it might be better where you live. Hopefully your government did not slash your hospital resources, but sadly, ours did.
> 
> In short he's concerned that our hospitals can't handle the number of cases which _could_ appear. But he's categorizing it more or less as the same problem as influenza. It's just like having "more flu" which is really bad given that hospitals could barely keep up with the flu.


I think a lot of people reading those comments will misinterpret 'influenza' to be a reference to the 'common' flu types A and B we have every year. Influenza means any H1N1 virus. The Spanish Flu was an H1N1 virus and many people when they say Influenza are referring to that 'flu', not the type A and B flus we have every year now. The Spanish 'Influenza' was indeed a very deadly virus. 
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

So a comment about COVID-19 being as dangerous as Influenza, needs to be clarified as to WHICH Influenza virus is being referred to. Usually, 'influenza' as a virus type vs. 'Influenza' (with a capital I) meaning the Original influenza, Spanish Flu. Your doctor acquaintance could have been referring to the capital I but of course you can't hear that being capitalized. 

I agree our hospitals could become overwhelmed, there are always limits on how many beds and ventilators exist. Self-quarantining at home for milder cases is the answer to that of course, so a 'triage' system will have to be used if that happens. My worry with that is how many people who are told to go home and self-quarantine, will in fact comply with that 'request'. You can't really force them to stay at home and my concern is that a considerable number will say, 'well I seem to have a mild case, I can still go to work and not lose my paycheque.' Money trumps everything for a lot of people. Anyone still planning to travel for March break because they don't want to lose the money they have already paid for their vacation, proves that.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Post on Reddit.....The Ontario PC Ford government eliminated 10 paid emergency days off and replaced them with 8 unpaid days off.....including for bereavement subject to the employer's demand for proof. Now if people stay home for the coronavirus they don't get paid, so a lot of people will go to work sick and infect others. This will primarily affect non-union low paid service jobs that are the ones dealing with the public the most. Spending cuts due to ideology have consequences.
> 
> _Previous Ontario labour law called for a minimum of 2 paid emergency days and 8 unpaid emergency days off. These could be used for personal sick leave, family illness, bereavement, pet emergency, whatever.
> 
> An employer may not ask for a Dr note.
> 
> The "Making Ontario Open For Business Act" (yes, that is the real title of the legislation...) of 2018 repealed this minimum labour law provision and replaced it with: you have three unpaid sick days, three unpaid family emergency days, and two unpaid bereavement days. The employer can now demand reasonable proof (including a Dr note) for each unpaid day used._


 ... typical "overzealous" political party in the "making", hoping to get "(re)elected". Let's see how it goes. 


As for asking a reasonable proof which means a doctor's note for each *"unpaid"* day used is the eff-*dumbest *requirement I ever heard.


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> Wow thanks cainvest. Very interesting. WHO is saying that containment is feasible and transmission can be stopped. Now it's up to government, and also all of us, to be extremely diligent... it CAN be contained and is not spreading as fast as influenza would. If we are all on our highest alert, it seems we can stop this.
> 
> 
> Korea’s situation also underlines that this a unique virus with unique features. This virus is not influenza.
> 
> We are in unchartered territory. *We have never before seen a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission, but which can also be contained with the right measures.
> 
> If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now, and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible.
> 
> But containment of COVID-19 is feasible and must remain the top priority for all countries.*
> 
> With early, aggressive measures, countries can stop transmission and save lives.
> 
> We appreciate that people are debating whether this is a pandemic or not. We are monitoring the situation every moment of every day, and analyzing the data.
> 
> I have said it before and I’ll say it again: WHO will not hesitate to describe this as a pandemic if that’s what the evidence suggests.
> 
> But we need to see this in perspective. Of the 88,913 cases reported globally so far, 90% are in China, mostly in one province.
> 
> Of the 8739 cases reported outside China, 81% are from four countries.
> 
> Of the other 57 affected countries, 38 have reported 10 cases or less, 19 have reported only one cases, and a good number of countries have already contained the virus and have not reported in the last two weeks.​


This is a very SIGNIFICANT difference. With any influenza type virus, containment is simply not possible. It is so highly transmittable that any attempt to contain it just doesn't work. This fact may go a long way to explaining why all the experts have been reluctant so far to suggest, 'just don't do any unnecessary travelling'. It was pointless in their view given all previous experience with a highly transmittable virus.

If they are now saying this novel coronavirus CAN be contained even though it is still quite highly transmittable, then I agree with the WHO that every country should be doing everything they can to CONTAIN the virus. That then puts the question of restricting travel in a whole new light does it not.

If a country is prepared enough to be able to contain the virus when it does show up in their country, all well and good. I think at present, we are prepared enough in Canada to continue trying to contain it here. But when I look at the situation in the USA, I have ZERO confidence in their ability to contain it anywhere. That then leads me to the question of what about our border with the USA and the likelyhood of large numbers of cases coming across that border which would then overload our systems and defeat our ability to contain it?

Closing off your own water taps to prevent your house flooding won't do much good if your neighbour's tap is left fully open with a hose leading into a door of your house.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> [
> I think a lot of people reading those comments will misinterpret 'influenza' to be a reference to the 'common' flu types A and B we have every year. Influenza means any H1N1 virus. The Spanish Flu was an H1N1 virus and many people when they say Influenza are referring to that 'flu', not the type A and B flus we have every year now. The Spanish 'Influenza' was indeed a very deadly virus.
> https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html



Actually influenza is a whole family of viruses. 
H1n1 h1n5, are both flu virii. 
Also Spanish, bird, swine etc. 

When someone says influenza they personally might be referring to any subgroup,or the virus family as a whole.

https://www.healthline.com/health/cold-flu/influenza-a-vs-b


Personally I think when most people talk about the flu, they're talking about the experience of having a bad bout of the common cold, likely not even the flu at all. 

That's one of the reasons they've named this Covid-19, so they know they are talking about this specific viral strain, not corona viruses in general.


The use of imprecise language only adds to the confusion.


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> Are we going to stop travel between US as well? Ten state are reporting cases. By some measures it's a rather large number of cases in the US ... on par with Singapore and Hong Kong and US deaths are on par with Japan and the Diamond Princess ship.
> 
> I agree it might be reasonable to stop travel with some countries but I would defer that judgement to experts on infectious diseases, as it's not as simple as looking at the statistic numbers. One also has to consider other factors, like whether it's believed to be localized to pockets of infection in these countries, or extremely widespread, not to mention the relative difference in time of starting to record numbers in different countries.
> 
> For example stopping all travel with Asian countries may be silly when we have massive amounts of US cross-border traffic (a far larger number of people entering) and the US has a large number of cases. I don't know... I defer to experts in infectious diseases.


I have already (had already anyway but would now do so because of this virus alone) stopped all travel to the USA. You couldn't pay me to go there right now. There is no reliable information on the spread of the virus in the USA but all indications are that it is more widespread than they know and they are not prepared to deal with it. I do not believe the risk in the USA is near the same as the risk in Canada. The risk in the USA is much higher in my opinion. If 'community spread' breaks out in Florida, what then should we do with all the Canadians returning from there after Spring Break?

If this virus can be contained, then simple logic should tell you that one of the ways to do so is to limit travel, all travel. When you say 'stopping all travel with Asian countries may be silly' I understand what you are saying, 'closing one door doesn't matter if you leave anther door open.' I disagree, each door you close means less people can get in. You are also ignoring that saying why not go to a place that is 'in the clear', only applies to TODAY and never to tomorrow. For example, there is currently a cruise ship quarantined in Norway. Would you have anticipated that and said 'don't take a cruise in Norway today'? https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/03/03/cruise-ship-norway-coronavirus/

The two potential cases have been tested and may be negative but if they are positive, what then? They could have gone on to visit places in Norway and pass on the virus not only to others on the ship but also others on land in Norway.

This difference between an H1N1 virus (influenzas) and this novel Coronavirus is very important in answering the question of should we stop non-essential travel. With influenza viruses, stopping travel doesn't work. But with this virus, if it does it is a whole other ballgame. It may be that for political and economic reasons, no government is ever going to come out and say, 'don't travel' but all that means is it is then up to the public to do the right thing themselves.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> This difference between an H1N1 virus (influenzas) and this novel Coronavirus is very important in answering the question of should we stop non-essential travel. With influenza viruses, stopping travel doesn't work. But with this virus, if it does it is a whole other ballgame. .


Quarantined do work for influenza, and honestly sufficiently aggressive quarantines work for every communicable disease, they just typically aren't warranted. 


Why are you so specifically interested in the h1n1 subtype of influenza A virii?
What about influenza B, C, or D? 
Or the other subtypes of influenza A, like h3n2 which is relatively common, or h5n1. I understand h1n1 and h5n1 have been the subtypes of recent outbreaks of concern, but they are in no way the definitive flu virii.


----------



## sags

OptsyEagle said:


> Sags, is there anything in this world that is not the responsibility of the government, in your view?


It is already happening. Singapore gives $100 a day to anyone in quarantine. Hong Kong is providing $1200 in cash. Other countries are considering options.

Many people are asking how they will pay their bills if they are under quarantine. Employer ? Insurance ? Government ?

Maybe people just won't have to pay their bills. 

Bottom line....if people in quarantine need money they will leave quarantine. Is that a good outcome ?

https://www.straitstimes.com/singap...ere-penalties-for-people-who-flout-quarantine


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> OptsyEagle said:
> 
> 
> 
> Sags, is there anything in this world that is not the responsibility of the government, in your view?
> 
> 
> 
> It is already happening. Singapore gives $100 a day to anyone in quarantine. Hong Kong is providing $1200 in cash. Other countries are considering options.
> 
> Many people are asking how they will pay their bills if they are under quarantine. Employer ? Insurance ? Government ?
> 
> Maybe people just won't have to pay their bills.
> 
> https://www.straitstimes.com/singap...ere-penalties-for-people-who-flout-quarantine
Click to expand...

Ei would be nice, but I'll just work at home.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> It is already happening. Singapore gives $100 a day to anyone in quarantine. Hong Kong is providing $1200 in cash. Other countries are considering options.
> 
> Many people are asking how they will pay their bills if they are under quarantine. Employer ? Insurance ? Government ?
> 
> Maybe people just won't have to pay their bills.
> 
> Bottom line....if people in quarantine need money they will leave quarantine. Is that a good outcome ?
> 
> https://www.straitstimes.com/singap...ere-penalties-for-people-who-flout-quarantine


You can always find someone doing something. It doesn't make it a good idea. Ever wonder why no one ever bothers to put money aside for a rainy day, instead of spending it like a drunken sailor.

I can look pretty sick if there is $100 a day in it for me. If one has to prove it, does it make sense for someone who perhaps only has a cold to go get in line, with a whack of people who probably have Corona, for $100 per day. Are you going to get in that line?

The government cannot fix everything. The best they can do is order people who know they have the virus to stay at home. If not, arrest them. If you start handing money out to those who are sick you will end up getting more people who are sick. It is a law of economics that never seems to get broken.


----------



## james4beach

Going to forget about coronavirus a bit, take a walk outside ... fresh air and exercise boosts the immune system


----------



## james4beach

Seems that Canada is testing a lot more people than the US, who is currently far behind the curve. Currently I think the biggest threat to us are infections from the US given their inadequate management of the outbreak:

https://globalnews.ca/news/6620409/us-covid-19-coronavirus-impact-canada/



> On Friday, Oughton said, the province of B.C. alone had done more COVID-19 tests than the entire U.S.
> . . .
> With all of the travel between Canada and the U.S., Bogoch said, it’s likely that we could start importing cases as the virus spreads in the U.S.


For reference, population of BC is 5 million people and population of the U.S. is 327 million.


----------



## doctrine

There are going to be cases in Vancouver. It takes 2-3 weeks for them to show up at the hospital. This virus is almost certainly running through the city now. Why do I say that?

One of the dead today in Seattle was actually dead on 25 February - a week ago. In the largest hospital in the state in downtown Seattle, without ever being identified as a coronavirus case. No wonder it's running rampant through the medical community in the state. When would that person contracted it? There could be as many as 3000-5000 actual infections in Washington state by now. And no quarantine and no mass testing and no screening. La la la. If you don't test, there isn't a problem. Washington State cases are already being exported confirmed into multiple states. There is a ton of traffic between Seattle and Vancouver and it's only a 3 hour drive or so. Yes, it's there, and testing of 1000 or so contacts of people who flew in from Iran is not going to pick them up.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I don't want to make this a political thread, but since this is an investment forum, I just wanted to point out to everyone that the US election is much more critical to your investments, then the Corona Virus outcome will be. Since no one seem to be noticing that I thought I would add my opinion here.

I apologize for hijacking the thread, but it seemed to be needed, since most investors seemed to be getting distracted by the virus, in my opinion.


----------



## Longtimeago

New York City has now confirmed their first 'community spread' case. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...to-trace-movements-awaits-more-tests/2311723/

Consider the implications of community spread in the USA vs. Canada, in relation to their healthcare systems. The guy who home delivers a pizza to you here, can go and get a test, what about the guy in the USA who delivers and has no health insurance? How many homes does the average pizza delivery guy deliver to in a week?

Consider the homeless in Toronto vs. New York City? Who will pay to test them? In Canada, they will be tested free of charge if you ask to be, in NYC?

Consider how many tests they are able to do in the USA. Until now, only CDC test kits were available. Now the FDA have FINALLY allowed commercial produced test kits to start being used. https://reason.com/2020/03/03/did-t...-19-diagnostic-tests-by-the-end-of-this-week/

Consider the comment at the end of that link, by former FDA Commission Scott Gotlieb who said on Sunday, "Once more widespread testing takes off, we will have a much better handle on just how dangerous COVID-19 is compared to other epidemics of respiratory illnesses such as influenza. Right now, I am betting that it is likely to be no worse than a particularly bad flu season, with a case-fatality rate somewhere between 0.2 and 0.5 percent. That's not great, but it's not apocalyptic." Meanwhile the WHO have now increased their best estimate of the fatality rate from around 2% to 3.4%. That difference seems to me to typify the downplaying, lack of basic understanding and resulting lack of response in the USA. 

The WHO are saying this virus is different and that if strong measures are taken, it can be contained. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who...-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html 

The focus of every country should therefore be to try and contain it but the USA are in fact not doing so to any appreciable degree so far. The impression I have is that even the experts in the USA who do understand what is going on, have already given up on trying to contain it. That does not bode well for us here in Canada given our cross border traffic.


----------



## moderator2

Politics are not appropriate for this thread (this has been reported as a complaint)

I've removed political posts and am locking the thread for a bit, to help people regain focus

Also, merged both coronavirus threads into one.


----------



## MrMatt

Well, at the risk of being political CFR while widely reported is the wrong stat. I've commented extensively on this. 

Closed case mortality is still looking in the 5-7% rate.

I'm hoping they figure out the medical aspects, but the human overreaction is more of a short term concern Imo. 

I expect in the next 1-3 weeks we'll see some bad numbers, and that may or may not start some panicking. 

I've heard that Vietnam has also closed schools.


----------



## james4beach

My member of parliament is organizing a general town hall meeting (did not mention a particular agenda). I'm interested, and I like this kind of thing, but *not* going under these circumstances ... I think we should all be avoiding gatherings like these until more details are known.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> My member of parliament is organizing a general town hall meeting (did not mention a particular agenda). I'm interested, and I like this kind of thing, but *not* going under these circumstances ... I think we should all be avoiding gatherings like these until more details are known.


lol, that's kind of a catch 22 isn't it!

Let's all come together to discuss the virus ... 1st point on the agenda, try to avoid large gatherings of people.


----------



## cainvest

And 4 more countries have reported their first covid-19 cases.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> lol, that's kind of a catch 22 isn't it!
> 
> Let's all come together to discuss the virus ... 1st point on the agenda, try to avoid large gatherings of people.


Ha yes, my first thought as well. It would be nice if my MP could do a virtual meeting using some technology, but that is not accessible to everyone and I understand the point of face-to-face meetings.

On the other hand, unlike some others around here, I actually have faith in my elected politician. I think these people are pretty smart and capable and I think they are being advised by experts on diseases.

Call me crazy, but I think the politicians are capable!


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Ha yes, my first thought as well. It would be nice if my MP could do a virtual meeting using some technology, but that is not accessible to everyone and I understand the point of face-to-face meetings.
> 
> On the other hand, unlike some others around here, I actually have faith in my elected politician. I think these people are pretty smart and capable and I think they are being advised by experts on diseases.
> 
> Call me crazy, but I think the politicians are capable!


This thread already got locked because of politics.
but tou're crazy, politicians in my experience are about slightly above average intelligence, typically higher in EQ.
However I think they tend to make bad decisions, particularly since they rarely, if ever, face the consequences of them.

Fortunately I don't think there are many points to make a mess out of the COVID 19 outbreak, so maybe they'll step back, and let the various health organizations do their jobs.
Unfortunately heath is incredibly political, with many organizations.

I do feel that most politicians, and most health professionals, and most people in general are trying to do the right thing.
However most of the time, we don't agree on what the "right thing is", which is why politics makes such a mess of it.

Fortunately in the case of COVID 19, I think we're all pretty much in line. 
Though even here there is significant disagreement on how to weigh factors, there are those who think economic impacts should be considered more, and those who think they should be considered less.


----------



## sags

Why are people going on cruise ships ? Don't they read the news ?

_Another Princess Cruises ship has set off coronavirus alarms after a California passenger who traveled to Mexico died this week, more than 10 days after returning home without knowledge of his exposure.

Two shiploads of passengers may have been exposed. State and federal officials are scurrying to contact 2,500-plus passengers who disembarked Feb. 21 from the San Francisco-Mexico cruise at the same time as the man who died, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday. 

_


----------



## sags

sags said:


> Why are people going on cruise ships ? Don't they read the news ?
> 
> _Another Princess Cruises ship has set off coronavirus alarms after a California passenger who traveled to Mexico died this week, more than 10 days after returning home without knowledge of his exposure.
> 
> Two shiploads of passengers may have been exposed. State and federal officials are scurrying to contact 2,500-plus passengers who disembarked Feb. 21 from the San Francisco-Mexico cruise at the same time as the man who died, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday.
> 
> _


https://www.politico.com/states/cal...ting-quarantine-off-the-pacific-coast-1265405


----------



## james4beach

Talking to some people, I hear some who are much more worried than me, and some who are worried less. This makes me think I'm at a reasonable spot here in the middle.

Realistically we still don't have great statistics on how harmful this is. Makes sense to be cautious, and I continue to be very careful about washing hands etc but I am not changing my lifestyle dramatically.

I think the Canadian response so far has been decent. Ontario and BC seem to be testing very aggressively. The total number of known cases so far are
20 in Ontario
13 in BC
1 in QC

And there probably are many more cases out there. What can one do, other than wait & see?


----------



## james4beach

I am at a coffee shop and was talking with the barista, who is Korean.

He told me he was just in South Korea until 3 weeks ago. While telling me this he was constantly rubbing his eyes with his hands. He said that the number of cases in Korea dramatically increased right around the time he flew back to Canada.

I will admit that this conversation made me nervous. We clearly had a large number of people entering Canada from highly affected areas, before the tests and statistics revealed their cases. And we continue to have a huge number of people coming from the US to Canada, and we know the US has a lot of cases.

Basically it is impossible to stop the virus from entering Canada.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> I am at a coffee shop and was talking with the barista, who is Korean.
> 
> He told me he was just in South Korea until 3 weeks ago. While telling me this he was constantly rubbing his eyes with his hands. He said that the number of cases in Korea dramatically increased right around the time he flew back to Canada.
> 
> I will admit that this conversation made me nervous. We clearly had a large number of people entering Canada from highly affected areas, before the tests and statistics revealed their cases. And we continue to have a huge number of people coming from the US to Canada, and we know the US has a lot of cases.
> 
> Basically it is impossible to stop the virus from entering Canada.


It's already here. There is no substantial screening or travel restrictions whatsoever. There may not be many direct flights from China, but there are plenty of connecting flights. And even if you did meet criteria, you would be asked to kindly go home and self quarantine with no actual verification.

If you show up at a hospital very ill with actual coronavirus symptoms, you are not likely going to be tested unless you have a travel history to China, South Korea, Iran, or Italy. Maybe at some places now, because fear is growing.

A woman just showed up at a Vancouver hospital near death with a recent travel history to India and Hong Kong. She was recently on a plane. How sick must she have been a week or less ago and never picked up as a concern?

People have been dying in Washington State of coronavirus and were never tested because they didn't have a travel history. Dead on 24 February. When was that person infected and how many people got infected? 3-4 weeks of spreading?

You should think about all that. We could easily have people infected a month ago here in Canada, now dying or actually dead in a hospital, and still not tested.


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> I am at a coffee shop and was talking with the barista, who is Korean.
> 
> He told me he was just in South Korea until 3 weeks ago. While telling me this he was constantly rubbing his eyes with his hands. He said that the number of cases in Korea dramatically increased right around the time he flew back to Canada.
> 
> I will admit that this conversation made me nervous. We clearly had a large number of people entering Canada from highly affected areas, before the tests and statistics revealed their cases. And we continue to have a huge number of people coming from the US to Canada, and we know the US has a lot of cases.
> 
> Basically it is impossible to stop the virus from entering Canada.


If he returned 3 weeks ago, he is probably in the clear for the virus. But the question would be did he self-isolate for 2 weeks after his return?

Call me a cynic but I have been waiting for the following to happen:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/coron...self-isolation-order-to-go-to-business-event/

Self-isolation depends on the person to do so. It is not illegal to ignore it. Rather than waiting till someone ignores it and THEN getting a legal ruling against that person, I think everyone who is told to go home and self-isolate should be put under some kind of legal requirement to do so.


----------



## Beaver101

Talk about vanity:

https://ca.yahoo.com/style/sebastian-stan-extreme-coronavirus-precaution-flight-160908422.html

I'm surprised these 3 don't have their own learjets to fly in and has to fly with everyone else on this planet.l


----------



## cainvest

And in today's news ... California declares state of emergency over coronavirus!


----------



## sags

Delay as long as possible to provide as much time as possible to get over the normal flu system (overburdened healthcare systems) and develop a vaccine (at least 18 months away).

But the end result is going to be mandatory quarantines on a mass level. The US government is already reported to be in discussions with how to keep the economy afloat and provide money to people.

One idea floated is to pay public servants 2 weeks pay if they are quarantined. Another is to forgive debt repayment for a couple of months.

Sure it will cost money, but that is the least of their concerns at this point.


----------



## james4beach

The coffee house worker I mentioned, who had just returned from South Korea (now a huge outbreak zone) did not self quarantine himself. He told me the whole story:

- he told his employer (Starbucks) he was just in Korea
- asked if he could have leave, or vacation, to quarantine at home
- Starbucks told him no: come to work, or you don't get paid
- he decided he needs money, so he came to work

That means that immediately upon returning from Korea, with huge numbers of infected cases, he was serving customers and using his hands with everything.

Similarly, a really big problem the US has is that many people can't take sick days. People in Canada don't realize how backwards America is. When I worked at my US office, most of us would drag ourselves (when sick) into work because we did not have any sick days -- only vacation days. Many people already blow all their vacation days on looking after kids and family.

This leaves no sick days left in the US, so people must come to work and contaminate others. Most advanced country in the world, supposedly.


----------



## james4beach

I would like to see emergency laws (time limited) that require companies to give paid leave for travel-related quarantine, perhaps with government assistance.


----------



## sags

It has been reported the Trump administration is considering different options to get money into people's hands. They are considering it an economic necessity.

Of course price is no barrier because Trump doesn't want a coronavirus and economic collapse just before the election.

He could care less about the deficit or debt.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> One idea floated is to pay public servants 2 weeks pay if they are quarantined. Another is to forgive debt repayment for a couple of months.
> 
> Sure it will cost money, but that is the least of their concerns at this point.


Yeah a big handful of cash would be nice, but who gets it, and how much?

Free money if you can't get to work, none if you do? 
Self employed? 

Sure gov staff will be taken care of, but what about those on low or moderate incomes? They'll get the worst of it. 

A massive handout with low rates would also cause macro problems.

We are looking at a difficult problem here. There are no good solutions, let hope they go with least awful.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> The coffee house worker I mentioned, who had just returned from South Korea (now a huge outbreak zone) did not self quarantine himself. He told me the whole story:
> 
> - he told his employer (Starbucks) he was just in Korea
> - asked if he could have leave, or vacation, to quarantine at home
> - Starbucks told him no: come to work, or you don't get paid
> - he decided he needs money, so he came to work
> 
> That means that immediately upon returning from Korea, with huge numbers of infected cases, he was serving customers and using his hands with everything.
> 
> Similarly, a really big problem the US has is that many people can't take sick days. People in Canada don't realize how backwards America is. When I worked at my US office, most of us would drag ourselves (when sick) into work because we did not have any sick days -- only vacation days. Many people already blow all their vacation days on looking after kids and family.
> 
> This leaves no sick days left in the US, so people must come to work and contaminate others. Most advanced country in the world, supposedly.


 ... it's not just the USA. It's happening here in Canada too https://ca.news.yahoo.com/working-while-sick-nova-scotians-142559554.html


----------



## sags

_In response, Premier Stephen McNeil said many private companies in Nova Scotia negotiate for sick days at the bargaining table, and there are also self-employed people who "make decisions for that business."

"I don't believe it should be government that imposes that," he said. "I'll let the employers and their representatives come to determine what benefits they want."_

Those employers have already decided what benefits they want..........none.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> _In response, Premier Stephen McNeil said many private companies in Nova Scotia negotiate for sick days at the bargaining table, and there are also self-employed people who "make decisions for that business."
> 
> "I don't believe it should be government that imposes that," he said. "I'll let the employers and their representatives come to determine what benefits they want."_
> 
> Those employers have already decided what benefits they want..........none.


It matters who makes the decision to not have the employees go to work. 

If the employee decides to stay home, that's up to them. 

If the employer cancels your shifts that is up to them. 

If the government mandates quarantines, they have some responsibility.


----------



## MrMatt

California state of emergency, some US schools are starting to close.
Apparently they closed a bunch of schools in Washington.


----------



## james4beach

ALL schools and universities in Italy have been closed for at least 10 days. Seems like a reasonable measure to limit spread.


----------



## Eder

cainvest said:


> And in today's news ... California declares state of emergency over coronavirus!


Hawaii did 2 weeks ago but still not one case of corona. Amazing.


----------



## AltaRed

There is not much testing going on in the USA. I read yesterday that tests cost about $1000 and the uninsured, and the under insured, sure are not going to pay for testing. Further, testing is only done if a doctor asks for it and even then, the labs are not set up for mass analysis. Me thinks the USA is, or is soon becoming, one big virus pool at this point in time. So much for the US health care system.


----------



## Eder

I don't know about the rest of the USA but Hawaii has quite an elaborate program implemented to help contain any out break...at least as good as anything in Canada. Currently 86 cases are being monitored but no positive tests so far other than those 2 Japan people early in February. 

Oh...from Hawaii gov site...." * state testing for coronavirus is offered for free to the public*"...so a lot of BS making the usual Trump bashing crowd in the media. (Lots of toilet paper available as well lol)


----------



## AltaRed

Hawaii is clearly a progressive Dem state so it does not surprise me they are doing what they are doing. Likely some other mostly Blue states are doing likewise.


----------



## sags

The largest group of people turned back by US border agents due to coronavirus fears are Canadians.

Canadians who visited Chinese "hot spots" in the previous two weeks were denied entry into the US, but are roaming freely in Canada.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-coronavirus-border-canada-1.5487696


----------



## Beaver101

^ So are the Iranians, Italians, Koreans (South) plus the Yankees themselves. The USA should be enclosing themselves as Fort Knox as if they're so visitors-friendly now. 

Thank God, the USA didn't share their Ebola case(s) with Canada. 

And I can picture A Day After Tomorrow scenario with the USA eventually.


----------



## Beaver101

^ And I wonder when they're going to shut down all the Disneyland/Worlds. 

Oh ... start with Vegas first ... we got an import to Canada:

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/03/05/person-who-attended-conference-in-vegas-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html


----------



## Longtimeago

AltaRed said:


> There is not much testing going on in the USA. I read yesterday that tests cost about $1000 and the uninsured, and the under insured, sure are not going to pay for testing. Further, testing is only done if a doctor asks for it and even then, the labs are not set up for mass analysis. Me thinks the USA is, or is soon becoming, one big virus pool at this point in time. So much for the US health care system.


The USA's healthcare system is a nightmare, there is no doubt about that. This issue of testing and who will pay is just highlighting how bad their system is. I suspect that they will get to all testing being free but in the meantime, many people who should get tested will not do so because it will cost them money to get it done.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...avirus-testing-could-cost-some-patients-extra

We here in Canada can only hope that they get to all free testing as quickly as possible since what they do affects us in terms of 'importing' the virus across our border.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> I don't know about the rest of the USA but Hawaii has quite an elaborate program implemented to help contain any out break...at least as good as anything in Canada. Currently 86 cases are being monitored but no positive tests so far other than those 2 Japan people early in February.
> 
> Oh...from Hawaii gov site...." * state testing for coronavirus is offered for free to the public*"...so a lot of BS making the usual Trump bashing crowd in the media. (Lots of toilet paper available as well lol)


Hawaii's approach just again emphasizes the poor overall healthcare system of the USA. Rather than a nationwide approach and coordination, a great deal depends on the individual state Governor's and state legislature's response.

However, I would not take that statement you have *bolded* Eder as necessarily what it seems to be. CDC testing is available to all of the USA free of charge but there is a real limit to how MUCH testing they can do. They can't do enough and so commercial testing which has finally been approved by the FDA will have to account for the vast majority of testing and that may or may not be 'free to the public'. Yet it is correct to say testing is, offered for free to the public in all of the USA', not just Hawaii.

So before saying Hawaii is prepared to test every resident of Hawaii for free, I would want more fact checking. Something being 'offered for free to the public' may well have to have the caveat added, 'up to the limit of the number of free tests available.'


----------



## Longtimeago

AltaRed said:


> Hawaii is clearly a progressive Dem state so it does not surprise me they are doing what they are doing. Likely some other mostly Blue states are doing likewise.


Leave politics out of it AltaRed.


----------



## AltaRed

Longtimeago said:


> Leave politics out of it AltaRed.


Tends to be the trend though and this is the General Discussion forum.... :tongue:


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Leave politics out of it AltaRed.


The human and political response to this IS the important part of this story.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> The human and political response to this IS the important part of this story.


NO, the health issues are the ONLY part of this thread.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> The human and political response to this IS the important part of this story.
> 
> 
> 
> NO, the health issues are the ONLY part of this thread.
Click to expand...


Someone better tell the guy who spouted this political rant. 
"
Hawaii's approach just again emphasizes the poor overall healthcare system of the USA. Rather than a nationwide approach and coordination, a great deal depends on the individual state Governor's and state legislature's response.
" 

Maybe you should talk to them about politicizing a thread. 

Personally I think the political reality is arguably one of the most important aspects of this crisis.


----------



## Longtimeago

AltaRed said:


> Tends to be the trend though and this is the General Discussion forum.... :tongue:


When I wrote leave politics out of it AltaRed what I was referring to specifically was the 'Blue states' remark.

You wrote, "_Hawaii is clearly a progressive Dem state so it does not surprise me they are doing what they are doing. Likely some other mostly Blue states are doing likewise._

I have no issue with saying Hawaii is 'clearly a progressive state', in regard to this virus. But there is no need to add it is a 'Dem' state or to go on in your second sentence to refer to 'other Blue states.'

You go beyond saying Hawaii is doing a good job and change it to a political statement instead. I don't CARE whether a state in the USA or a province in Canada has a government with a majority of one party or another, all I care about that is relevant to the topic of this thread is what is being done in relation to the virus. If a state or province is doing a poor job, I will decry them for doing that regardless of what party is in power and I will praise them in equal measure if they are doing a good job, regardless of what party is in power and so should everyone else be doing in my opinion. Not trying to attribute good only to the party we favour and find fault with the party we do not favour.

There is far too much of this 'dividing' going on in everything these days, again in my opinion. Not everything one group someone favours is good just as not everything a group they do not favour is bad. But that seems to be what a lot of people seem to think is the case. 

Leave politics out of it and concentrate on the health issues. I have to say that I do see posters who constantly want to bring politics into every thread but I do NOT see them starting their own threads on just politics. What that says to me is they want to DISRUPT threads purely for the purpose of disrupting them. There's a name for that and those who do it.


----------



## sags

The Canadian government will be announcing a benefit program to assist people dealing with lost work time. The Finance Minister will provide details next week.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Someone better tell the guy who spouted this political rant.
> "
> Hawaii's approach just again emphasizes the poor overall healthcare system of the USA. Rather than a nationwide approach and coordination, a great deal depends on the individual state Governor's and state legislature's response.
> "
> 
> Maybe you should talk to them about politicizing a thread.
> 
> Personally I think the political reality is arguably one of the most important aspects of this crisis.


Amazing how you can twist that into thinking it was a political comment. It was a comment about the healthcare system of the USA. What IS, not, WHY it is. 

The political reality is indeed an important aspect of WHY the USA got to where it is in relation to this virus issue but it is NOT the topic of this thread. The healthcare aspects of this virus ARE the topic of this thread.

If you are not capable of separating the two and addressing the one that is the topic, I can't help you MrMatt other than to point out to you that they are two different topics.


----------



## AltaRed

Longtimeago said:


> Leave politics out of it and concentrate on the health issues. I have to say that I do see posters who constantly want to bring politics into every thread but I do NOT see them starting their own threads on just politics. What that says to me is they want to DISRUPT threads purely for the purpose of disrupting them. There's a name for that and those who do it.


Yadda....yadda....yadda. Mind your own knitting.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> The Canadian government will be announcing a benefit program to assist people dealing with lost work time. The Finance Minister will provide details next week.


Yes, I heard his speech this morning where he talked about that although he did not give details and referred to it as in the future. In other words, not in place yet for those who are currently having to choose between self-isolating and going to work to get paid. The sooner the better obviously.


----------



## sags

There is a lot of politics involved in the response to this crisis. 

There is a US election this November and Trump has tried to pass the blame to Obama for the lack of testing and preparedness.

Even the amount of money allocated from Congress has been the subject of political deal making.

It would be naive to say politics have nothing to do with the response, when all politicians from every level want to avoid any blame to themselves.


----------



## Longtimeago

AltaRed said:


> Yadda....yadda....yadda. Mind your own knitting.



Resorting to personal comments when you have no actual rebuttal to a point being made simply reflects badly on you AltaRed, not me.


----------



## AltaRed

Another addition to the 'ignore' list....


----------



## sags

The best idea I have heard yet is to have people driving around administering the tests to people who need them.

That avoids people traveling to their family doctor or showing up in a medical clinic or the emergency department and possibly infecting other people who are there.

I also heard there may be services offered to supply food to people's homes. The driver drops it off outside the door and the person waits 60 seconds for them to leave.

Creative solutions may be necessary, if people can't get out to buy food etc. Specialized home delivery may be possible in the large urban areas but won't work well in rural areas.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> Someone better tell the guy who spouted this political rant.
> "
> Hawaii's approach just again emphasizes the poor overall healthcare system of the USA. Rather than a nationwide approach and coordination, a great deal depends on the individual state Governor's and state legislature's response.
> "
> 
> Maybe you should talk to them about politicizing a thread.
> 
> Personally I think the political reality is arguably one of the most important aspects of this crisis.
> 
> 
> 
> Amazing how you can twist that into thinking it was a political comment. It was a comment about the healthcare system of the USA. What IS, not, WHY it is.
> 
> The political reality is indeed an important aspect of WHY the USA got to where it is in relation to this virus issue but it is NOT the topic of this thread. The healthcare aspects of this virus ARE the topic of this thread.
> 
> If you are not capable of separating the two and addressing the one that is the topic, I can't help you MrMatt other than to point out to you that they are two different topics.
Click to expand...

Separating the IS from the WHY impedes understanding of either one alone. They are interwoven. 
How something got to this point and the history will help explain what will happen going forward and what challenges there will be. 

So you want to talk about the heathcare of a global situation, yet ignore all the politics and history of the people and systems at play? That doesn't make any sense.
At the macro level, I'm mostly interested in the human/institutional response and impacts. Mostly that's a sociopolitical problem.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> Someone better tell the guy who spouted this political rant.
> "
> Hawaii's approach just again emphasizes the poor overall healthcare system of the USA. Rather than a nationwide approach and coordination, a great deal depends on the individual state Governor's and state legislature's response.
> "
> 
> Maybe you should talk to them about politicizing a thread.
> 
> Personally I think the political reality is arguably one of the most important aspects of this crisis.
> 
> 
> 
> Amazing how you can twist that into thinking it was a political comment. It was a comment about the healthcare system of the USA. What IS, not, WHY it is.
> 
> The political reality is indeed an important aspect of WHY the USA got to where it is in relation to this virus issue but it is NOT the topic of this thread. The healthcare aspects of this virus ARE the topic of this thread.
> 
> If you are not capable of separating the two and addressing the one that is the topic, I can't help you MrMatt other than to point out to you that they are two different topics.
Click to expand...

Separating the IS from the WHY impedes understanding of either one alone. They are interwoven. 
How something got to this point and the history will help explain what will happen going forward and what challenges there will be. 

So you want to talk about the heathcare of a global situation, yet ignore all the politics and history of the people and systems at play? That doesn't make any sense.
At the macro level, I'm mostly interested in the human/institutional response and impacts. Mostly that's a sociopolitical problem.


----------



## Longtimeago

For those who wish to discuss the political aspects of the virus.

https://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/...s-to-the-COVID-19-virus?p=2076476#post2076476


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> For those who wish to discuss the political aspects of the virus.
> 
> https://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/...s-to-the-COVID-19-virus?p=2076476#post2076476


Covid-19 is more a political issue than a health issue for most of us at this point.
How about you create the non-political thread?

In fact every aspect from the spread to the misreported Fatality rates is political.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> The best idea I have heard yet is to have people driving around administering the tests to people who need them.
> 
> That avoids people traveling to their family doctor or showing up in a medical clinic or the emergency department and possibly infecting other people who are there.
> 
> I also heard there may be services offered to supply food to people's homes. The driver drops it off outside the door and the person waits 60 seconds for them to leave.
> 
> Creative solutions may be necessary, if people can't get out to buy food etc. Specialized home delivery may be possible in the large urban areas but won't work well in rural areas.


Did you miss the comments earlier re the 'drive through' set up being used by some hospitals in England and Scotland sags?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-51678008

Since mid-February Edmonton has had a group of volunteers helping those who are self-isolating there.
https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/local-v...m-china-in-self-isolation-1.4811403?cache=yes


----------



## MrMatt

Just to point out, the thread basically started with the note that the US closed their embassy and evacuated staff.
This is a comprehensive impact thread.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> That avoids people traveling to their family doctor or showing up in a medical clinic or the emergency department and possibly infecting other people who are there.





Longtimeago said:


> Did you miss the comments earlier re the 'drive through' set up being used by some hospitals in England and Scotland sags?
> https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-51678008


Longtimeago, did you not read the link you provided?
It says but appointment only, meaning you'd have to be previously assessed somewhere before going there (i.e. hospital, family doctor, etc) 
In other words, it doesn't bypass the point sags made.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Longtimeago, did you not read the link you provided?
> It says but appointment only, meaning you'd have to be previously assessed somewhere before going there (i.e. hospital, family doctor, etc)
> In other words, it doesn't bypass the point sags made.


Umm, no, I am actually personally more aware than most perhaps having discussed this with relatives IN Scotland. They can call the NHS 111 phone number, describe their symptoms and make an appointment to drive up and be tested. The NHS 111 phone service is basically an immediate telephone consultation that anyone can use and is nothing new. They are just using this existing service to facilitate drive through appointments. https://www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/nhs-services/urgent-and-emergency-care/nhs-111/

Having made that call and got an appointment, you can see how the drive through works by watching the video here: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-...rive-through-testing-facility-in-london-works

There is no need to come face to face with anyone before the drive through testing, so it does bypass the point sags was making re face to face contact before testing.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> There is no need to come face to face with anyone before the drive through testing, so it does bypass the point sags was making re face to face contact before testing.


I agree it's a good step forward to limit contact but that still doesn't mean those people don't walk into their doctor's office and get referred to from there.


----------



## sags

To receive the "free" testing alluded to in other posts, the patient must be exhibiting symptoms and be referred by a doctor.

I was in the emergency room a couple weeks ago when my son got hurt, and there were at least 20 people sitting there with masks on. 

There were another 30 people sitting and standing in the area.

Were they wearing masks to protect themselves from others or because they were sick with the flu ? 

The clerks, nurses, security staff, EMT people, were all working without wearing any protective gear.

One person would go in when called and another person would take their chair. Everyone was moving around from chair to chair and nobody was cleaning anything.

Lord help us if we get a major outbreak. We aren't even close to being prepared for it.

I thought it was kind of funny to watch video of people stocking up at Costco. 

Many were wearing masks and would stop at the free food samples and remove their mask to grab a snack and then stand there chewing with a group of other people.


----------



## sags

cainvest said:


> I agree it's a good step forward to limit contact but that still doesn't mean those people don't walk into their doctor's office and get referred to from there.


Appointments to see our doctor are 3 months from now. They have a sign on their wall telling patients not to visit a medical clinic. 

The reason is the doctor gets their enrolled patient payments reduced when the government has to pay a clinic for a visit by their patient. 

The sign told people to go to the emergency department. I suspect if I called the office and said I had flu like symptoms they would tell me to go to emergency.

Now the government is saying........don't go to emergency with normal flu like symptoms. Only go if you are severely ill.

Our health care system is just as big a mess as the US system. A higher infection rate will reveal all the weaknesses.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Appointments to see our doctor are 3 months from now.


Then you need to get a new doctor........

ltr


----------



## cainvest

A friend went to a walk in clinic last week, had a cough and trouble breathing, skipped the waiting room and was taken right into an exam room. Not coronavirus BTW.


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> Then you need to get a new doctor........
> 
> ltr


Our doctor revamped their schedule, they schedule far out, but then make sure they have a few free spots every day for those with urgent conditions.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Our health care system is just as big a mess as the US system. A higher infection rate will reveal all the weaknesses.


Just FYI, with my US doctor (under a pretty good private health plan) I also sometimes had to wait at least 2 weeks to see my doctor


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Our doctor revamped their schedule, they schedule far out, but then make sure they have a few free spots every day for those with urgent conditions.


Are you saying your doctor is scheduling appointments three months out?

It's busier right now than it was in the fall but it was more like three weeks for an appointment, with the option to call in the morning for limited slots. In fall it was more like one and a half to two weeks.


Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Are you saying your doctor is scheduling appointments three months out?
> 
> It's busier right now than it was in the fall but it was more like three weeks for an appointment, with the option to call in the morning for limited slots. In fall it was more like one and a half to two weeks.
> 
> 
> Cheers


No, I'm saying that if it isn't urgent they try to schedule as far as possible in advance, then you get a good time, but also try to keep short notice appointments free for emergencies.


----------



## MrMatt

Just went to an Ontario Costco last night, seemed normal... except.

Hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes EVERYWHERE. They were wiping cars, they had them at checkouts, randomely throughout the store, EVERYWHERE.


Water & Toilet paper, instead of the normal 2 skids of each in our store, they had about 8 of each on the floor. 
1 Brand of TP.
Mostly Kirkland water
1 brand of paper towels.
1 brand of tissues out.

They were clearly positioning to ensure that it was easy to grab if someone wanted.

Carts were typically loaded, didn't see much of "hoarding".


----------



## peterk

james4beach said:


> Just FYI, with my US doctor (under a pretty good private health plan) I also sometimes had to wait at least 2 weeks to see my doctor


Odd - I saw a specialist in Las Vegas once, on a whim. I wasn't happy with the 18 month wait list in Alberta (nearly the best province for healthcare, apparently), so called up a random specialist office from the phone book 2 weeks before my vacation. They apologized profusely, because they couldn't get me in till next Thursday. I said don't worry - I won't be there till next Saturday anyways!


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Appointments to see our doctor are 3 months from now. They have a sign on their wall telling patients not to visit a medical clinic.
> 
> The reason is the doctor gets their enrolled patient payments reduced when the government has to pay a clinic for a visit by their patient.
> 
> The sign told people to go to the emergency department. I suspect if I called the office and said I had flu like symptoms they would tell me to go to emergency.
> 
> *Now the government is saying........don't go to emergency with normal flu like symptoms. Only go if you are severely ill.*
> 
> Our health care system is just as big a mess as the US system. A higher infection rate will reveal all the weaknesses.


 ... talk about convolution!!!!




> .... I thought it was kind of funny to watch video of people stocking up at Costco.
> 
> *Many were wearing masks and would stop at the free food samples and remove their mask to grab a snack *and then stand there chewing with a group of other people.


 ... lol with :rolleyes2::rolleyes2: :rolleyes2: ... a freebie including Covid19. Oh well, life is short there.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> I agree it's a good step forward to limit contact but that still doesn't mean those people don't walk into their doctor's office and get referred to from there.


I suppose there are stupid and ignorant people everywhere in the world cainvest and Scotland is no exception. However, this process is being well covered by local media, so for someone to not know what they should do it would be limited to those who do not watch or read the news at all.

If you want to find a reason to dispute what I wrote and try to self-justify your earlier response for which you first did no research before commenting, then I guess you have found a reason. 'doesn't mean those people don't walk into their doctor's office', yup you've justified yourself. Congratulations.


----------



## Longtimeago

like_to_retire said:


> Then you need to get a new doctor........
> 
> ltr


I agree like_to_retire but unfortunately it is not so easy for many people to get a new doctor and particularly in larger cities. 

When I call for an appointment the response depends on why I am calling. ie. the urgency Our family doctor operates in a new to me format. We have a local Medical Clinic in which there are 6 family Doctors, 6 Advanced Nurse Practioners and 6 Registered Nurses as well as several other professionals like a Physiotherapist, Respirologist, etc. It's almost like a mini-hospital. Instead of just a family doctor, we actually have a designated RN, ANP and Family Doctor who make up our 'team'.

They do not make appointments in 'advance' at all. In other words, we can't phone today and make an appointment for a physical examination say, next month. Or if there is to be a follow-up appointment, that is not made in advance either. All appointments are made as soon as possible. As it happens, I need to have a follow-up on something next month. I have no appointment scheduled. When the time comes, I phone and say I am calling to schedule a follow-up as per the doctor's orders. I am then given an appointment within the next couple of days.

If I phone for an appointment for a new 'issue', my 'issue' is determined by questioning me on the phone and an appointment is again made within a few days or even hours depending on the 'urgency' of that issue. What's more, who I will see is determined through a kind of 'triage' system. I may be given an appointment with just MY RN if for example I just wanted to go in for a flu shot. I may be given an appointment with the ANP or I may be given an appointment with my Doctor.

So what they are doing is in fact using all three professionals to maximum (or trying to at least) advantage. If for example I have a stomach complaint, chances are I will see the ANP and in most cases she will be able to diagnose and prescribe for the problem. IF she determines I need to see the Doctor, then he will be called in to see me. It's a 'triage' system and it is a 'most urgent gets seen first' booking system as well. They also see patients from 8am to 8pm by the way. If you need an early appointment or evening appointment, you may not get YOUR RN, ANP or Family Doctor but one of the 6 of each will be covering those hours and of course will have access to all your medical records right there.

Sags me me seeing an old school family doctor who operates a one man band practice as has been the norm for a long time and in an area where trying to find another doctor is not easy to do.

I should add that under the system above, I have never had an appointment that was not within the next couple of days and also at a time convenient to ME. 'Do you want this afternoon at 4pm or tomorrow or the day after at 11 am or 2 pm.' That's our current norm.


----------



## Longtimeago

Clarity re what to do if you suspect you may have the virus is an ongoing thing obviously. Here is the latest advice.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6640386/coronavirus-symptoms/

As you will see there is a number you can call in each Province to get advice on how to proceed. 

In Ontario, your first step should be to call Telehealth Ontario. 
https://www.ontario.ca/page/get-medical-advice-telehealth-ontario

They are using that already existing service to do an initial screening for the virus. They will then advise you on how to proceed from there.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I suppose there are stupid and ignorant people everywhere in the world cainvest and Scotland is no exception. However, this process is being well covered by local media, so for someone to not know what they should do it would be limited to those who do not watch or read the news at all.
> 
> If you want to find a reason to dispute what I wrote and try to self-justify your earlier response for which you first did no research before commenting, then I guess you have found a reason. 'doesn't mean those people don't walk into their doctor's office', yup you've justified yourself. Congratulations.


As you like to point out (many, many times I believe) that people who currently travel on vacation now are not responsible and putting you at risk I thought you'd agree with my point of view. But I guess it fits your side better to believe all these people will now suddenly be responsible (in your eyes) and not go to their doctor or ER. You turn tables nicely!


----------



## sags

As of last January, OHIP no longer pays towards the cost of healthcare out of Province. It can cost $25,000 US. a night in a US emergency room.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> As you like to point out (many, many times I believe) that people who currently travel on vacation now are not responsible and putting you at risk I thought you'd agree with my point of view. But I guess it fits your side better to believe all these people will now suddenly be responsible (in your eyes) and not go to their doctor or ER. You turn tables nicely!


What does people on vacation have to do with people at home who presumably watch TV news or read a newspaper that tells them what to do if they suspect they may have the virus? What does one person acting irresponsibly have to do with any other person acting irresponsibly. No one should just walk into an ER department if they think they have this virus and no one should be going on unnessary travel. Both are being irresponsble towards others. 

I didn't say I expect everyone to act responsibly in Edinburgh, I'm sure some will not. You have no 'point of view' that I am disagreeing with. I gave an example to sags of a process that has been put in place somewhere to deal with the virus. It's a good process, but it isn't perfect or FOOL proof. What does it have to do with my saying non-essential travel at present is irresponsible behaviour?

Do you have something bothering you about my pointing out that people who travel and return are in fact being irresponsible and putting others at risk? You seem to have a 'thing' about my saying that people who travel right now when it is non-essential travel, are in fact acting irresponsibly towards others. Are you yourself planning to travel and so just don't like my saying YOU are going to act irresponsibly?

Look, cainvest, I am 74 and the risk to ME of this virus is somewhere around the 10% fatality rate. If my 35 year old neighbour goes to Florida for March Break and brings back the virus, he may say, 'well I didn't want to lose my money so I went and if I get the virus, it will probably just be mild, it only kills 'old folks'. He IS being irresponsible towards ALL us 'old folks' who live in our town. He is going to come home, go to our supermarket, pick up a head of lettuce and put it back down, etc. and then what IF I pick up that lettuce? What if 6 others over age 65 pick it up? What if someone dies thanks to that 35 year old's decision? Should we then say, 'oh well, that's life.' Should we say that that 35 year old did nothing wrong?

This virus is a killer and how we behave knowing that should be governed not ONLY by what suits the individual. The individual should behave by what is best for ALL. I had travel plans but I have put them all on hold. Not just because I don't want to risk MY catching this virus on a plane or by inadvertently visiting somewhere that I pick it up but because I don't want to pick it up on the way to somewhere and then spread it wherever I go or spread it when I come home. So I am practicing 'social distancing' not just for my own sake but for the sake of others. I suggest everyone else should be doing the same. Do you want to disagree with that?


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## Longtimeago

Here is an article on the current situation in Florida where many people will no doubt travel to during the March break.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/healt...died-of-coronavirus-two-new-cases-in-broward/

Read the article and then answer these questions.

Do you think they have identified all cases in the State?
Do you think they have adequate testing or are doing enough testing to find and isolate new cases quickly enough?
Do you think they have no cases of 'community transmission'? By my count they have at least one with no direct connection to travel or with a known infected person. 

And finally, do you think that if someone from my small town in Ontario plans to travel there for March Break, I should be OK with them doing so and returning home WITHOUT a guarantee that they intend to self-isolate for 2 weeks after their return?


----------



## cainvest

Likely the same people you say are irresponsible for travelling (the ones at higher risk right?) are the ones you're expecting to suddenly do the responsible thing and follow the news ads about containment ... you don't see a contradiction with that?

I'm totally agree with you that at 74 you should be taking additional safety precautions. And since you can't totally rely on others (or the gov) to protect you then *you* must take measures to protect yourself, as you should. Complaining about what others do is non-productive, you know they don't have your interests in mind and they will do what they want.

I'm getting to the age where I don't heal as well and more prone to viruses but I'm not overly concerned about my chances right now. I have two friends on vacation this week (Mexico and Cuba) and will not avoid them when they return as I see it as minimal risk. Now if they went to China (or some other hot spot), you bet I'd steer clear and tell them no thanks, I'll see you in a few weeks.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Likely the same people you say are irresponsible for travelling (the ones at higher risk right?) are the ones you're expecting to suddenly do the responsible thing and follow the news ads about containment ... you don't see a contradiction with that?
> 
> I'm totally agree with you that at 74 you should be taking additional safety precautions. And since you can't totally rely on others (or the gov) to protect you then *you* must take measures to protect yourself, as you should. Complaining about what others do is non-productive, you know they don't have your interests in mind and they will do what they want.
> 
> I'm getting to the age where I don't heal as well and more prone to viruses but I'm not overly concerned about my chances right now. I have two friends on vacation this week (Mexico and Cuba) and will not avoid them when they return as I see it as minimal risk. Now if they went to China (or some other hot spot), you bet I'd steer clear and tell them no thanks, I'll see you in a few weeks.


Yes I know they don't have my interests at heart and will do what they want cainvest but that doesn't mean I can't call them out for doing so and that is what I am doing. Calling those who think only of themselves and not others out. Irresponsible, selfish, *********.


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## Eder

The best part of this virus is that it thins the herd of old & weak at about a 15% rate while our future...those under 45...have a death rate under .2%. Although my wife & I are more likely to croak from this as we are in a higher risk group I doubt our death would be much loss & most likely a boost to the economy.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Yes I know they don't have my interests at heart and will do what they want cainvest but that doesn't mean I can't call them out for doing so and that is what I am doing. Calling those who think only of themselves and not others out. Irresponsible, selfish, *********.


Devil’s advocate. I guess drivers over 65 years old are being irresponsible, selfish, ********* too.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/features/more-seniors-dying-on-canadian-roads-than-any-other-group-1.3821118


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## AltaRed

Eder said:


> The best part of this virus is that it thins the herd of old & weak at about a 15% rate while our future...those under 45...have a death rate under .2%. Although my wife & I are more likely to croak from this as we are in a higher risk group I doubt our death would be much loss & most likely a boost to the economy.


I made a similar comment elsewhere in response to Andrew Coyne's recent column talking about the potential devastation in the economy if there were, I think he said, millions of deaths globally. My push back was that most of the fatality rate would be elderly seniors who are already a burden of society. Get rid of 50% of them and in Canada at least, we have much less outlay in CPP and OAS, much less burden on the health care system, elimination of waiting lists to get into assisted care, etc. There would be short term disruption due to the dying elderly taking up space in hospitals but once they are dead and buried, the economy should actually do better. My spouse and I are not yet post-75 but we are getting there and increasing recognize that some kind of superbug could wipe us out in weeks. It is what it is.

Anecdote: When my mother lived in a 2 bedroom apartment in an independent living facility before she died at 94, I'd say the average age there was at least 80 and at meal time, the hallways were a parking lot of walkers, canes and oxygen tanks. I can see where about half of the residents would be victim to this virus if it hit the facility in spades.


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## Userkare

AltaRed said:


> Get rid of 50% of them and in Canada at least, we have much less outlay in CPP and OAS, much less burden on the health care system, elimination of waiting lists to get into assisted care, etc.


*Man," said the Ghost, "if man you be in heart, not adamant, forbear that wicked cant until you have discovered What the surplus is, and Where it is. Will you decide what men shall live, what men shall die? It may be, that in the sight of Heaven, you are more worthless and less fit to live than millions like this poor man's child. Oh God! to hear the Insect on the leaf pronouncing on the too much life among his hungry brothers in the dust." -- Charles Dickens*


----------



## AltaRed

The reality is IF 20 to 60% of the population could get the virus before it runs its course in perhaps one year (some of the latest projections), then the population in our aged facilities is going to be disproportionately decimated. I've seen too much frailty in retirement/assisted care homes to think it will be anything but. Whether it is 10% or 50% of that demographic no one knows. 

I include my 70+ self in the 10% or so of mid-seniors that could get the virus and die within the next year or so until a vaccine is available to the masses.


----------



## Userkare

AltaRed said:


> The reality is IF 20 to 60% of the population could get the virus before it runs its course in perhaps one year (some of the latest projections), then the population in our aged facilities is going to be disproportionately decimated..


This may be true, but one does not need to look for the "silver lining" as it were. Perhaps if more homeless died, there would be less need for affordable housing. Maybe if more minimum wage earners died, there would be less need for public transit. Think of the savings! Spillery slope, eh?

I feel sorry for the old folks who are stuck in long term care homes; that environment is second only to cruise ships as a disease incubator. As a fellow 70+'er my attitude is "there, but for the grace of god, and healthy living choices, go I".


----------



## sags

It isn't the dying I worry about. It is the getting there that concerns me.

Maybe some thought should be focused on how to allow a peaceful and painless death for those suffering near the end.

Unfortunately, medical intervention at the end of life isn't always peaceful or painless.

It is often unwanted by those patients as well.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Yes I know they don't have my interests at heart and will do what they want cainvest but that doesn't mean I can't call them out for doing so and that is what I am doing. Calling those who think only of themselves and not others out. Irresponsible, selfish, *********.


You think any policy changes will occur due to you "calling them out" on a financial forum?

Then again, maybe you're doing more than I know and are actively trying to get the government to change?


----------



## AltaRed

Userkare said:


> This may be true, but one does not need to look for the "silver lining" as it were. Perhaps if more homeless died, there would be less need for affordable housing. Maybe if more minimum wage earners died, there would be less need for public transit. Think of the savings! Spillery slope, eh?
> 
> I feel sorry for the old folks who are stuck in long term care homes; that environment is second only to cruise ships as a disease incubator. As a fellow 70+'er my attitude is "there, but for the grace of god, and healthy living choices, go I".



You are taking life too seriously..and my post way too literally. The facts are those 70+ are at considerably higher risk than anyone else, and that demographic is generally no longer working adding to national productivity, and are now needing more support from society than what they are putting into society. My post was really a rebuttal to Andrew Coyne's column who has forgotten which demographics add most to national productivity and who have become a net 'burden' to society. The fact is that a high fatality rate will be concentrated in the older demographic and GDP/productivity will not be the issue Andrew suggests. Read his column first.

The numbers will be what the numbers are going to be regardless of 'political correctness'. Be objective and understand that with no vaccine, it is inevitable that our senior facilities are going to be exposed eventually and our seniors are going to fall victim to COVID-19. It is no more complex than that. I believe I stand a pretty good chance of contracting COVID-19 before there is a vaccine for it and thus at high(er) risk. Simply accept that is a most likely scenario.

I guess we might witness a real test. BC has just declared a long term care home has 2 cases and the home has gone into 'outbreak protocol' The problem is those 2 residents have already been contagious for awhile.


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## Eder

AltaRed said:


> I've seen too much frailty in retirement/assisted care homes to think it will be anything but. Whether it is 10% or 50% of that demographic no one knows.
> 
> (/QUOTE]
> 
> I guess we will find out...from the Calgary Herald
> 
> *British Columbia declared a COVID-19 outbreak at a long-term care home in North Vancouver after two residents were diagnosed with the virus on Saturday.*


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## AltaRed

It is in the G&M as well...where I read the story.


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## jargey3000

I see videos of crews out spraying all over the streets & sidewalks....in china, korea, iran ....
what's in the spray?.....


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## AltaRed

jargey3000 said:


> I see videos of crews out spraying all over the streets & sidewalks....in china, korea, iran ....
> what's in the spray?.....


Supposedly low concentration bleach..... Excellent run off into waterways, rivers and lakes of course.


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## cainvest

So I wonder what the tipping point is for WHO to call this a pandemic?


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## Eder

When China or India tells them to.


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## james4beach

AltaRed said:


> Supposedly low concentration bleach..... Excellent run off into waterways, rivers and lakes of course.


Seems totally pointless to me. I saw that footage as well.

As more stats emerge, COVID-19 really does seem to be hitting the elderly particularly hard. Italy is a really worrying case

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/italy-elderly-population-coronavirus-risk-covid-19


> Italy’s large elderly population poses a challenge in slowing the number of coronavirus deaths in the worst-affected country in Europe, a health specialist has said.
> 
> The virus has killed 79 people in Italy, overwhelmingly aged between 63 and 95 with underlying serious illnesses.
> 
> The youngest patient to die was 55 and suffering from chronic disease. A 61-year-old doctor who was not known to have underlying health problems has also died.
> . . .
> Twenty-three per cent of the Italian population is over 65, making it the oldest in the world after Japan.
> 
> “Italy is a country of old people,” said Prof Massimo Galli, the director of infectious diseases at Sacco hospital in Milan. “The elderly with previous pathologies are notoriously numerous here. I think this could explain why we are seeing more serious cases of coronavirus here, which I repeat, in the vast majority of cases start mildly and cause few problems, especially in young people and certainly in children.


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## Money172375

james4beach said:


> Seems totally pointless to me. I saw that footage as well.
> 
> As more stats emerge, COVID-19 really does seem to be hitting the elderly particularly hard. Italy is a really worrying case
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/italy-elderly-population-coronavirus-risk-covid-19


Wondering what the breakdown of ages is for deaths of “regular” influenza. My 2nd cousins wife died of the flu....she was 41. Walked herself to the hospital and passed 3 days later.


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## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> Wondering what the breakdown of ages is for deaths of “regular” influenza. My 2nd cousins wife died of the flu....she was 41. Walked herself to the hospital and passed 3 days later.


Very sorry to hear that. The flu is a horrible disease.

I connected with some doctor friends on Friday. I seem to be ending up at a lot of cocktail parties with doctors lately. I asked about status of the flu outbreak and heard some good news... influenza is on the down-swing in MB. They are seeing fewer serious cases and fewer people end up in hospital. It was very bad in Dec/Jan.

I wonder if increased COVID-19 awareness and a bit of panic might even curtail spread of influenza. That could save lives.


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## sags

How many people refuse to take flu shots ? I know quite a few older people who refuse because they are afraid to get the shots. 

Maybe they should develop a flu vaccine in a shot of brandy. Even if they develop a coronavirus vaccine there will be anti-vaxxers saying it is all a scientific conspiracy.


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## sags

To date COVID 19 is only confirmed in 3 Provinces. The sparsely populated Provinces may not see many cases at all as the virus can't spread as easily there.

Ontario 28
BC 27
Quebec 2


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## Money172375

sags said:


> To date COVID 19 is only confirmed in 3 Provinces. The sparsely populated Provinces may not see many cases at all as the virus can't spread as easily there.
> 
> Ontario 28
> BC 27
> Quebec 2


And I believe the Ontario cases are concentrated in the GTA. Haven’t reached simcoe county or north of that yet.


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## sags

Some of the fatality charts are downright scary. The hope is that with more testing the fatality rates will drop quickly and will actually be a lot lower.


----------



## doctrine

sags said:


> To date COVID 19 is only confirmed in 3 Provinces. The sparsely populated Provinces may not see many cases at all as the virus can't spread as easily there.
> 
> Ontario 28
> BC 27
> Quebec 2


If you aren't testing, there isn't a problem.

The only countries that have slowed down the exponential growth has instituted mandatory mass quarantines and mass testing. China has done it. South Korea has definitely stopped the exponential growth. But Italy and Iran have been in denial for weeks and now are forced to go there.

Every one positive you find at the border is potentially 100's of prevented cases and possibly several deaths. Think about that and wonder why we continue to let people in from high risk areas with zero testing.

Governments will only do the right thing when it threatens their survival, ie they think people will vote or throw them out. Or one of them gets sick.


----------



## AltaRed

Alberta now has 2 cases, one of which was an Edmonton man who traveled in the USA (blame the Americans). The other was a Calgary woman who had been on the Diamond Princess.

Italy has now put 16 million people in Northern Italy under strict quarantine. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/europe/coronavirus-italy.html



> He called the measures “very rigorous” but necessary to contain the contagion and ease the burden on Italy’s strained health care system. He said there would now be an “obligation” to avoid any movement “in and out of the territory, and also within” the locked-down areas. Any such travel will require special permission for health or work reasons.


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## sags

Money172375 said:


> And I believe the Ontario cases are concentrated in the GTA. Haven’t reached simcoe county or north of that yet.


I think we have 2 cases here in London, related to the University and Chinese students. They are young and healthy and have mild symptoms.


----------



## OptsyEagle

If you get a chance watch the W5 episode on the Wuhan lockdown. Quite interesting to watch. The footage was done by a Canadian inside the lockdown zone. 

I thought it was interesting about human nature. They have signs everywhere telling people what to do and how to act, etc. One of them was to tell them not to listen to rumours and not to spread rumours. The guy with the footage said that it made sense. He said a few weeks ago there was a rumour that the virus could be spread by their pets, and consequently people started killing their pets.


----------



## sags

Just received an email from Green Shield who administer our retirement health benefits. It is an extensive package of benefits that includes 60 day out of Province medical insurance.

They advise they will not approve medical costs for anyone traveling to a restricted country. If a restriction is placed while a person is there, they will honor the 60 day coverage.

They also advise they will NOT pay for prescriptions requested earlier than after 80% of the previous prescriptions are deemed to be used.

So anyone who wants to "stock up" with prescription medicine will have to pay themselves. We can afford it if necessary but lots of people wouldn't be able to.

Everyone should check with their own provider.

Note.....In Ontario at least, the seniors get free prescription drugs. The government should allow advance prescriptions filled for this high risk group.


----------



## Userkare

sags said:


> ..... and Chinese students.


{SARCASM}Looks like we found another CMF racist. How dare you state a fact that includes someone's race!{/SARCASM}


----------



## Userkare

sags said:


> Note.....In Ontario at least, the seniors get free prescription drugs.


ODB covers most of the cost for seniors.


----------



## MrMatt

Userkare said:


> Looks like we found another CMF racist. How dare you state a fact that includes someone's race!


Actually that was a geopolitical statement.
The "Chinese" students he was refering to were individuals of Chinese descent/citizenship who were recently entered Canada from China.

It won't be racist when we talk about "Italian" students coming down with Covid-19.

I swear, people want to see racism everywhere. Do you get a prize for it?


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> I think we have 2 cases here in London, related to the University and Chinese students. They are young and healthy and have mild symptoms.


 ... I would only be concerned if they act responsibly and "self-quarantine" "provided" they've been tested to be "positive for Covid19." Otherwise being "University" "Chinese" students having "mild" symptoms mean squat. What statement has London's Public Health issued regarding those "2 cases" so as to allay public fears in London, Ontario? 

The Greater Toronto Area has 29 "positive" cases already and each has been addressed by the city's (or the respective borough's) public health. Eg. Richmond Hill, Milton, Peel, etc. and public transit (TTC, Go bus/train) to be disinfected.


----------



## Userkare

MrMatt said:


> Actually that was a geopolitical statement.
> The "Chinese" students he was refering to were individuals of Chinese descent/citizenship who were recently entered Canada from China.
> 
> It won't be racist when we talk about "Italian" students coming down with Covid-19.
> 
> I swear, people want to see racism everywhere. Do you get a prize for it?


I though that you, of all people, would have gotten the joke - considering your postings in "why are the natives" thread, and who I'm directing it at. Anyway, I fixed it.

But... "Italian" is not a race, not so easily identified in a crowd. When the outbreak first started spreading outside China, there was lots of talk on the news about kids of Chinese descent in school being harassed. There were even warnings about blaming Chinese Canadians, born here, for what was happening there - you know, like all Chinese people don't practice good hygiene and eat wierd stuff. <- Not my opinion BTW, actually heard a Canadian woman of Chinese descent say this on TV, sarcastically of course.


----------



## MrMatt

Userkare said:


> But... "Italian" is not a race, not so easily identified in a crowd. When the outbreak first started spreading outside China, there was lots of talk on the news about kids of Chinese descent in school being harassed. There were even warnings about blaming Chinese Canadians, born here, for what was happening there - you know, like all Chinese people don't practice good hygiene and eat wierd stuff. <- Not my opinion BTW, actually heard a Canadian woman of Chinese descent say this on TV, sarcastically of course.


According to many "experts" race is not a requirement for racism. 

Also the Chinese thing is funny I had a lot of Chinese friends in school, and the amount of group *ism was crazy. 
They recognized there was a huge cultural change in becoming Canadian and there was a lot of conflict.


----------



## sags

Userkare's comment made me smile...but then...

When I was born my dad took me up into his arms and said to my mother........look at that... he has my smile.

To which my mom replied....you got him wrong side up....turn him over.


----------



## jessicabrobert

The government took a great action against Corona Virus. I think it is mandatory to clean the whole aircraft and fumigation to kill the germs.


----------



## MrMatt

jessicabrobert said:


> The government took a great action against Corona Virus. I think it is mandatory to clean the whole aircraft and fumigation to kill the germs.


I'm pretty sure it isn't mandatory.
Im not sure it is a good idea, do we really want that much poison sprayed around our environment? 

Look at photos of the DDT spraying they used to do, with kids playing in it.
I'm not sure on the risk/benefit of some actions.


----------



## sags

Air flights are flying around with few passengers. There is discussion in Congress about a "bailout" for the industry. I suspect it won't be the only industry in need of help.

With all the market activity today, one of the most telling things I heard was that all these industries that are experiencing major problems will have cash flow problems and they will use their credit lines with banks to support continuing operations. It is feared the banks will be under liquidity pressures. The Congress is also considering measures to infuse capital if needed.

What we could be looking at here is the largest bailouts of companies of all time. The US deficit/debt is going to explode.


----------



## sags

So much conflicting statements on the virus. The mayor of NYC just said on the news the virus is difficult to catch, isn't airborne and only lives a few minutes on surfaces.

Yesterday, I heard the virus is easily transmitted, can be airborne for some distance, and can survive for days or weeks on a surface.

I heard estimates of available test kits in the US quoted as 75,000, 1 million, and 4 million. They say doctors can get test kits. The doctors say they can't get them.

Small wonder people are panicking.


----------



## MrMatt

If you live in NYC, or other massively urbanized areas you are highly dependent on the systems functioning, of course they're going to panic.
The chance of systems overloading, and failing is very high.


----------



## MrMatt

Well current closed case mortality is at about 6%, definitely not good.

Media is still reporting the 3%CFR, which will go up if they contain it, or plummet if it spreads widely. 

I think at the 5-8% Fatality rate, the risk of panic remains high.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

MrMatt said:


> Well current closed case mortality is at about 6%, definitely not good.
> 
> Media is still reporting the 3%CFR, which will go up if they contain it, or plummet if it spreads widely.
> 
> I think at the 5-8% Fatality rate, the risk of panic remains high.


I plan to panic myself and now is a good a time as any.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Why? Don't you want to be around to witness the re-bound? Hang in there.


----------



## Beaver101

An educated ignoramus:

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/03/09/why-i-wont-stay-at-home-when-im-sick.html

Her "explanation" doesn't add up:



> ... People in more privileged economic positions — including, I’m assuming, those responsible for telling the rest of us to stay home from work when we’re sick — don’t seem to truly understand what this means, so allow me to explain.
> 
> *If I don’t go to work, even for one hour, I don’t get paid*. At one of my jobs (like many people in this economy, I have several) my weekly pay is contingent on me showing up to deliver a class in-person. This means that if I cancel class one week because I am sick, I get no pay for that week — *even if I spend the rest of the same week grading papers and responding to student emails from home.*
> 
> Every missed hour is missed income that I am counting on to make basic ends meet. With contract work that ends at the end of each academic year, I have no guarantee that any lost income can be made up in the future. Showing up to work every day when I am scheduled to work is the only way I can pay rent and make my monthly student loan payments.
> 
> *And here’s the kicker: I have good jobs. My contracts pay me a good hourly wage and have at least some unionization under which I am protected from real exploitation. *That’s not the case for a huge number of workers — particularly people who work in service. A living wage at their multiple jobs is not something that exists for much of the working population — let alone job security, savings, and income buffers. ...


 ... I guess when all her students get sick, who is she, the super-spreader, going to teach? I think a rock looks better.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> An educated ignoramus:
> 
> https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/03/09/why-i-wont-stay-at-home-when-im-sick.html
> 
> Her "explanation" doesn't add up:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... People in more privileged economic positions — including, I’m assuming, those responsible for telling the rest of us to stay home from work when we’re sick — don’t seem to truly understand what this means, so allow me to explain.
> 
> *If I don’t go to work, even for one hour, I don’t get paid*. At one of my jobs (like many people in this economy, I have several) my weekly pay is contingent on me showing up to deliver a class in-person. This means that if I cancel class one week because I am sick, I get no pay for that week — *even if I spend the rest of the same week grading papers and responding to student emails from home.*
> 
> Every missed hour is missed income that I am counting on to make basic ends meet. With contract work that ends at the end of each academic year, I have no guarantee that any lost income can be made up in the future. Showing up to work every day when I am scheduled to work is the only way I can pay rent and make my monthly student loan payments.
> 
> *And here’s the kicker: I have good jobs. My contracts pay me a good hourly wage and have at least some unionization under which I am protected from real exploitation. *That’s not the case for a huge number of workers — particularly people who work in service. A living wage at their multiple jobs is not something that exists for much of the working population — let alone job security, savings, and income buffers. ...
> 
> 
> 
> ... I guess when all her students get sick, who is she, the super-spreader, going to teach? I think a rock looks better.
Click to expand...

That's the big issue. 
If you get paid for actually showing up and delivering the product or service, you need to do that or you don't get paid.

With large numbers of Canadians only a missed paycheck from serious financial problems, a 3 week quarantine is financially devastating.

The government really needs to put together a plan for the low and mid low families. 

This is really going to hit the poor bad.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Well current closed case mortality is at about 6%, definitely not good.
> 
> Media is still reporting the 3%CFR, which will go up if they contain it, or plummet if it spreads widely.
> 
> I think at the 5-8% Fatality rate, the risk of panic remains high.


The numbers of "recovered" will steadily increase as the quarantine periods start ending. An increase in recoveries will decrease the fatality rate.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> That's the big issue.
> If you get paid for actually showing up and delivering the product or service, you need to do that or you don't get paid.
> 
> With large numbers of Canadians only a missed paycheck from serious financial problems, a 3 week quarantine is financially devastating.
> 
> The government really needs to put together a plan for the low and mid low families.
> 
> This is really going to hit the poor bad.


 ... don't dispute those in the retail or hospitality sector who needs to be there servicing. They're caught between a hard-place and a rock.

But a teacher, out endorsing it on the front page of a metro paper "so I'm sick and I'm going to work REGARDLESS"? What happened to holding classes/delivering the education online? 

Besides, what good would it do for her, her students going to class sick, even she doesn't have Covid19? Cover her face and talk through the mask???? Or just cough at it. Would she expect her sick student(s) to show up similarly? and everyone can sing kumbayah in her class.


----------



## sags

Trump didn't have much to do, so he went golfing on Saturday.


----------



## sags

People who can't afford to miss work will go to work and spread the joy. Personally, I would rather sick people can afford to stay home.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> That's the big issue.
> 
> *The government really needs to put together a plan* for the low and mid low families.
> 
> This is really going to hit the poor bad.


I was thinking they could just tweak EI a bit. So I searched and found this...



> Employment Insurance (EI) sickness benefits can provide you with up to 15 weeks of financial assistance if you cannot work for medical reasons. You could receive 55% of your earnings up to a maximum of $573 a week.
> 
> You must get a medical certificate to show that you’re unable to work for medical reasons. Medical reasons include illness, injury, *quarantine or any medical condition that prevents you from working.*


----------



## james4beach

At the risk of the forum turning on me, I'm flying to Cuba tomorrow... won't be posting while gone. It will be nice to get away from markets and bad news.

Neither Manitoba nor Cuba report any cases of COVID-19 and I don't feel a big risk here. It's a direct flight, not through YYZ.

I am concerned about getting infected by Europeans (particularly Italians) while there, and will self-isolate myself no matter what, for 1 week on return. I work from home anyway.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> At the risk of the forum turning on me, I'm flying to Cuba tomorrow... won't be posting while gone.


I have friends down there right now, not heard of any issues. Also, the majority were from Canada and to a lesser degree, from Russia, a few weeks back.

Enjoy your trip!


----------



## james4beach

Thanks cainvest. Yeah, Canadians & Russians are a good mix, very few cases in both countries.


----------



## AltaRed

More importantly, it is where the plane was on the previous 2 or 3 flights before you got on it. Spouse and I came back from Mexico almost 2 weeks ago. No fear EXCEPT we had no knowledge of where that Westjet 737 was the prior few days.

Sanitize the hell out of your head rest, seat belt, tray table and armrest and for goodness sake, don't reach into the seat pocket for written material.


----------



## james4beach

Good points AltaRed, thanks, and yes I will. Taking some alcohol wipes. First thing, will wipe down head rest and things you mention. I forgot about the seat belt; good idea.


----------



## AltaRed

james4beach said:


> Good points AltaRed, thanks, and yes I will. Taking some alcohol wipes. First thing, will wipe down head rest and things you mention. I forgot about the seat belt; good idea.


I may have already said this elsewhere. We are still self-isolating ourselves from our DIL and family because DIL has a compromised immune system due to cancer remission drugs. The doctors advised us to stay away for 2 weeks because we had been on a plane of unknown travels.


----------



## james4beach

Hmm. I might boost my self isolation (staying away from older family members) for 2 weeks then.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Hmm. I might boost my self isolation (staying away from older family members) for 2 weeks then.


Hey, what about the rest of us old folk? lol 

At least wipe down your keyboard before you post here!


----------



## Eder

james4beach said:


> At the risk of the forum turning on me, I'm flying to Cuba tomorrow... won't be posting while gone. It will be nice to get away from markets and bad news.
> 
> Neither Manitoba nor Cuba report any cases of COVID-19 and I don't feel a big risk here. It's a direct flight, not through YYZ.
> 
> I am concerned about getting infected by Europeans (particularly Italians) while there, and will self-isolate myself no matter what, for 1 week on return. I work from home anyway.



Holidays are always a great idea...you are still young and no reason to worry about the virus. Too many people are running around in circles losing their brains. 

We fly back to Canada next week, will grab the motorhome and hit up Vegas for a few weeks.

Life is short...spending it under the bed is a silly idea.


----------



## AltaRed

But it is wise to take the right precautions with hand washing and hand sanitizer. None of us purposely step out on to a freeway to see if we get hit.


----------



## Prairie Guy

AltaRed said:


> But it is wise to take the right precautions with hand washing and hand sanitizer. None of us purposely step out on to a freeway to see if we get hit.


You forgot about the Iranians that were licking the "healing shrines"... :biggrin:


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Thanks cainvest. Yeah, Canadians & Russians are a good mix, very few cases in both countries.


Actually they came back on Sunday. I didn't get the complete trip story yet but all was fine down there last week.


----------



## m3s

Prairie Guy said:


> You forgot about the Iranians that were licking the "healing shrines"... :biggrin:


----------



## Eder

Bleh....had to buy my lunch in Honolulu today...Costco was not providing free food samples due to fear of virus transmission...the nerve.


----------



## cainvest

Eder said:


> Bleh....had to buy my lunch in Honolulu today...Costco was not providing free food samples due to fear of virus transmission...the nerve.


There are some tough times ahead alright!
Thanks for the heads up though, I'll eat before going to Costco.


----------



## cainvest

Tim's also cancelled their roll up the rim cups on virus fears? Yet the cashiers handle money and tim's reward cards ... go figure.


----------



## MrMatt

Looking at the latest close case data, it's terrifying.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Deaths/recovered in several countries is substantially higher than the china data of 5%

Italy is at 30+%
US is at 60%
S Korea at 20%
Iran at 10%
Japan at 12%
Spain at 50%

Yes these are worst case numbers, and testing will improve it, but I wonder if the very aggressive Chinese response was warranted, and the Italian response is starting to look reasonable.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Looking at the latest close case data, it's terrifying.
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
> 
> Deaths/recovered in several countries is substantially higher than the china data of 5%
> 
> Italy is at 30+%
> US is at 60%
> S Korea at 20%
> Iran at 10%
> Japan at 12%
> Spain at 50%
> 
> Yes these are worst case numbers, and testing will improve it, but I wonder if the very aggressive Chinese response was warranted, and the Italian response is starting to look reasonable.


All numbers are meaningless, since the data leaves out, what could be millions of people, who have only mild symptoms and have not seeked any treatment. Just took a couple aspirin and stayed at home. Probably were better in a few days.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> Good points AltaRed, thanks, and yes I will. Taking some alcohol wipes. First thing, will wipe down head rest and things you mention. I forgot about the seat belt; good idea.


Alcohol wipes will work, but just remember that airlines will usually prevent anyone from bringing a bottle of disinfectant onto the airplane. No matter what it says on the bottle, it will always look like a bomb to them.

Anyway, enjoy your trip.


----------



## sags

After your vacation ends, stay an extra 14 days to make sure you are not infected.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> Looking at the latest close case data, it's terrifying.
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
> 
> Deaths/recovered in several countries is substantially higher than the china data of 5%
> 
> Italy is at 30+%
> US is at 60%
> S Korea at 20%
> Iran at 10%
> Japan at 12%
> Spain at 50%
> 
> Yes these are worst case numbers, and testing will improve it, but I wonder if the very aggressive Chinese response was warranted, and the Italian response is starting to look reasonable.
> 
> 
> 
> All numbers are meaningless, since the data leaves out, what could be millions of people, who have only mild symptoms and have not seeked any treatment. Just took a couple aspirin and stayed at home. Probably were better in a few days.
Click to expand...

Are they only aware of 50% of cases? 10% 1% 0.1%?

I just wanted to point out that according to the available data, it is bad, far worse than the media is saying, and quite possibly worse than the Chinese data.


----------



## sags

Anyone watching the Keystone Cop antics of the Trump administration on this virus has got to be very concerned.

Now they are saying they have no idea how many people have been tested, because some private labs are testing and there is no way to report the numbers.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Are they only aware of 50% of cases? 10% 1% 0.1%?
> 
> I just wanted to point out that according to the available data, it is bad, far worse than the media is saying, and quite possibly worse than the Chinese data.


Could easily be 50% (or higher) since it doesn't seem to do much to people that don't have serious health issues or are under 50 years old.


----------



## cheech10

The South Korean data (where they tested very extensively and did very good contact tracing) is likely the best data we have, as well as the cruise ships that are essentially "natural experiments". In both of these settings we are pretty confident that all or nearly all of the cases were identified, and the mortality rate is just under 1%. 

Iran, Italy, and the US have massively undertested their populations, so the denominator for mortality rate is falsely low. Italy for example has ~500 deaths, so there are likely ~50,000 cases, but they are reporting only ~10,000. They're missing 80% of the infected individuals. They have no idea who the other 40,000 are, because they almost certainly have mild disease and will continue to spread the virus in the community. Hopefully their quarantine helps...


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Are they only aware of 50% of cases? 10% 1% 0.1%?
> 
> I just wanted to point out that according to the available data, it is bad, far worse than the media is saying, and quite possibly worse than the Chinese data.


When you know the data MUST be wrong, relying on it or being able to use it at all is fairly useless.


----------



## MrMatt

cheech10 said:


> The South Korean data (where they tested very extensively and did very good contact tracing) is likely the best data we have, as well as the cruise ships that are essentially "natural experiments". In both of these settings we are pretty confident that all or nearly all of the cases were identified, and the mortality rate is just under 1%.


You realize the closed case S Korea data is 20%.
Most of the cases have not run to conclusion yet. 
I'm not saying that it will stay that high, I actually think it will drop, but the vast majority of Korean cases are still open.


----------



## cheech10

Yes, but 99% of the active cases are mild disease (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/).

As an ICU physician in Toronto, I am keeping a VERY close eye on the data.


----------



## AltaRed

cheech10 said:


> Yes, but 99% of the active cases are mild disease (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/).
> 
> As an ICU physician in Toronto, I am keeping a VERY close eye on the data.


Thank you for that link. Puts it into more perspective.


----------



## MrMatt

Yes the recovery rate has dramatically improved, still scary.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

sags said:


> Anyone watching the Keystone Cop antics of the Trump administration on this virus has got to be very concerned.
> 
> Now they are saying they have no idea how many people have been tested, because some private labs are testing and there is no way to report the numbers.


I recall Trump wanted to stop people coming to the US from China and other infected areas and was roundly criticized as a racist. What do you think he should do? For that matter what should the Canadian government be doing, or what is Trudeau doing that is so much better?


----------



## MrMatt

Rusty O'Toole said:


> sags said:
> 
> 
> 
> Anyone watching the Keystone Cop antics of the Trump administration on this virus has got to be very concerned.
> 
> Now they are saying they have no idea how many people have been tested, because some private labs are testing and there is no way to report the numbers.
> 
> 
> 
> I recall Trump wanted to stop people coming to the US from China and other infected areas and was roundly criticized as a racist. What do you think he should do? For that matter what should the Canadian government be doing, or what is Trudeau doing that is so much better?
Click to expand...

Well if you suggest more screening, quarantines or bans on travel from high risk areas, Trudeau will call you racist. 

I guess some people think that's "better".

To be clear, I think not banning travel was likely appropriate. 
Presenting a quarantine support plan is critical though.


----------



## cainvest

Was at Costco and saw they were completely out of toliet paper, lol.


----------



## Longtimeago

cheech10 said:


> Yes, but 99% of the active cases are mild disease (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/).
> 
> As an ICU physician in Toronto, I am keeping a VERY close eye on the data.


Sometimes 'keeping a very close eye' on something results in someone who can't see the forest for the trees.

It doesn't matter what the data says as to what percentage will have a mild disease vs. a serious one. The ONLY people we need to think about are those who contract a serious case of the disease. Saying only 1% overall will die is meaningless if 10% of those over 60 who contract it will die. Look at your Worldometer data for that here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

IF this virus really gets loose and the TRANSMISSION rate rises to the levels of the 'common flu' type influenzas, then how many people will it KILL. If a virus has a mortality rate of 1% across all age groups and including those with underlying medical conditions, that would mean everyone has a 99% chance to survive. But that is NOT the case at all.

The mortality rate varies depending on age and underlying medical conditions. The mortality rate is much higher than 1% in those over 60, that is not in question. So let's suppose 1 million of Canada's roughly 20%(7 million) of the population over age 60 contract the virus. That's a TRANSMISSION rate of roughly 14% and if the average mortality rate for that group is 10%, then 100,000 would DIE.

Forget about keeping an eye on the number of mild vs. serious cases and start looking at the TRANSMISSION rate. A transmission rate of 14% is not excessively high. No one knows how many people catch the 'flu' every year, there are no hard numbers on that since most cases obviously do not even get reported. But what we do know is that you and I and everyone else around us has probably had the flu several times in various years and in any given year, you and I and everyone around us knows people who had the flu in that specific year. So I would say a transmission rate of 14% if it gets loose is not unreasonable. Now suppose that transmission rate applies to Covid-19 and you and I and everyone around us knows someone in our family and friends who is over 60 and contracts Covid-19, this year. Then 100,000 of them die.

The overall mortality rate may still be only 1% but if the number of PEOPLE who die is 100,000, there is no comfort to be had in saying, 'it was only 1% overall.' You and I and everyone around us will probably HAVE known someone who died and those are real PEOPLE, not statistics. So take your, 'Yes, but 99%' Dr. Cheech10 and try telling it to me when it it my Wife in your ICU Department and see how I react to it. There is no 'yes, but', there is only the individual PERSON and how it affects them.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Was at Costco and saw they were completely out of toliet paper, lol.


So what are you using to wipe your laughing butt now cainvest? 

There is nothing funny in seeing people panic. There is nothing funny about this topic.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> So what are you using to wipe your laughing butt now cainvest?
> 
> There is nothing funny in seeing people panic. There is nothing funny about this topic.


TP I still have at home. 

You're right, nothing funny about people thrown in panic *when there is a good reason for it*. 
It's actually sad to see alarmists go off the deep end when there is no real cause for it, they're the ones that cause these issues.

I visited a major hospital here yesterday, everything was normal but a few extra purell stations had been put out. One doctor I was chatting with even shook my hand after our chat, kind of surprised me to be honest but shows you precautions are not "out of the ordinary" ... yet. I am glad I don't work there anymore because if the virus does spread badly here it would make things a bit uneasy .... but I do miss the work I did with them.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Wash your butt with soap and water...it's not only more sanitary, it does a better job than dry paper could ever do.

Or, you can take your marching orders from the media and panic for no reason. Of course, that would mean that you have to think for yourself and use common sense and I'm not sure it that's possible for some people.

I sometimes wonder how some people manage to tie their shoes in the morning...


----------



## Money172375

Get one of these. $56. https://www.amazon.ca/Luxe-Bidet-Neo-185-Elite/dp/B00P2XZDGG

It will change your life and cut your TP usage by 95%. You could actually use a wash cloth just to dry off after you’re done.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Prairie Guy said:


> Wash your butt with soap and water...it's not only more sanitary, it does a better job than dry paper could ever do.


That's why I inserted in another thread the following:


----------



## cainvest

It's offcial, WHO declares pandemic.


----------



## BoringInvestor

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I recall Trump wanted to stop people coming to the US from China and other infected areas and was roundly criticized as a racist. What do you think he should do? For that matter what should the Canadian government be doing, or what is Trudeau doing that is so much better?


Trump constantly downplays the threat, and the timelines of the extent of the virus.
There are multiple reports about testing being delayed or unavailable due to US federal government regulations.

Canada/Trudeau are doing neither.
To Canada's credit - health professionals have been leading the conversation and updates.


----------



## andrewf

cainvest said:


> Was at Costco and saw they were completely out of toliet paper, lol.


Costco probably doesn't keep a lot of inventory in the 'pipeline' for paper products. So the supply chain might take time to respond to such runs. I'm sure paper products makers are all running at 100% capacity, but they have customers other than Costco to satisfy. Probably doesn't help that Costco orders a unique-to-them package size, meaning they probably commit to production runs ahead of time and vendor inventory is nonexistent.


----------



## GGuy

cainvest said:


> It's offcial, WHO declares pandemic.


And so far the US has only tested 5,000 people. Once they finally get their act together and increase testing the confirmed cases will undoubtedly spike.

I fear the hysteria has only just begun.

My mind boggles that while countries are in full quarantine (Italy) we still allow cruise ships to carry boatloads of untested people from around the globe for a week of close contact and then dump them on-shore to fly off in all directions to their home countries. 

And how many flights from China landed in major cities around the globe from November of last year before anyone realised what they were dealing with. The genie has been out of the bottle for months now. I'm thinking all of this quarantining now is like sticking your finger in the dike.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> So what are you using to wipe your laughing butt now cainvest?
> 
> There is nothing funny in seeing people panic. There is nothing funny about this topic.


I think we should keep our sense of humour about this as well. Society will weather this, and many will die, but life will go on.


----------



## GGuy

andrewf said:


> Costco probably doesn't keep a lot of inventory in the 'pipeline' for paper products. So the supply chain might take time to respond to such *runs*.


I thought the symptoms were only fever and cough. :05.18-flustered:

Sorry, I know it's serious but a little humour is always good.

Now off to Costco to wrestle for some TP!


----------



## m3s

GGuy said:


> And so far the US has only tested 5,000 people. Once they finally get their act together and increase testing the confirmed cases will undoubtedly spike.
> 
> I fear the hysteria has only just begun.
> 
> My mind boggles that while countries are in full quarantine (Italy) we still allow cruise ships to carry boatloads of untested people from around the globe for a week of close contact and then dump them on-shore to fly off in all directions to their home countries.


Italy has banned all public gatherings (funerals/weddings) and the US is considering whether to cancel music festivals and sporting events.

I'm living in the US and the local radio says to self quarantine if sick because hospitals aren't equipped to test everyone and won't even test for COVID 19 unless you are critically at risk. Remember healthcare isn't necessarily covered for all in the US. So the numbers are highly misrepresented

My state governor highly discourages work travel, conferences, gatherings and personal travel but nothing is outright banned. We've cancelled non-essential work travel


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> I think we should keep our sense of humour about this as well. Society will weather this, and many will die, but life will go on.


Yes. Excellent point.

In my opinion, humour should never be mistaken for a person not taking a situation seriously, but more should be taken as a person's method of reducing the stress, that serves no useful purpose, that always surrounds a serious situation.


----------



## cainvest

GGuy said:


> And so far the US has only tested 5,000 people. Once they finally get their act together and increase testing the confirmed cases will undoubtedly spike.
> 
> *I fear the hysteria has only just begun.*


That's a scary thought ... maybe I should have bought more than a can of coffee and trail mix at Costco last night. 
Think I'll drop into my local Walmart tonight to see what they are out of.


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> Italy has banned all public gatherings (funerals/weddings) and the US is considering whether to cancel music festivals and sporting events.
> 
> I'm living in the US and the local radio says to self quarantine if sick because hospitals aren't equipped to test everyone and won't even test for COVID 19 unless you are critically at risk. Remember healthcare isn't necessarily covered for all in the US. So the numbers are highly misrepresented
> 
> My state governor highly discourages work travel, conferences, gatherings and personal travel but nothing is outright banned. We've cancelled non-essential work travel


100% the US is a lot worse than they are reporting. It is revealing that about half the new cases in Canada have come from travellers to the US.


----------



## like_to_retire

andrewf said:


> 100% the US is a lot worse than they are reporting. It is revealing that about half the new cases in Canada have come from travelers to the US.


Or travelers to anywhere for that matter. Why do we continue to accommodate these people. Just like the first case confirmed in Ottawa today, it was a traveler to Austria. Did they really need to travel? Why should I pay for that person, or any person's health care if they chose to travel during a pandemic?

Maybe we should cut off health care for anyone who travels and returns with a positive test. 

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> Or travelers to anywhere for that matter. Why do we continue to accommodate these people. Just like the first case confirmed in Ottawa today, it was a traveler to Austria. Did they really need to travel? Why should I pay for that person, or any person's health care if they chose to travel during a pandemic?
> 
> Maybe we should cut off health care for anyone who travels and returns with a positive test.
> 
> ltr


We don't even cut health care for drug abusing criminals with self inflicted injuries. I doubt that they're willing to cut off the wealthy people who can afford to take travel vacations. Those guys vote


----------



## cheech10

Longtimeago said:


> Sometimes 'keeping a very close eye' on something results in someone who can't see the forest for the trees.


I think my comments may have been misconstrued (as often happens in online discussions). The virus itself does not cause excessive mortality. The case fatality rate is low (flu 0.1%, covid-19 1%, ebola 20%+). The demographic data you link to is also misleading because those cases are aggregated from multiple countries that have done a poor job of surveillance, so the denominator is falsely low. This isn't a highly lethal virus.

The problem is, as you correctly state, the transmission. With a large number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases, and a somewhat long incubation period of up to 14 days, it's very hard to achieve effective surveillance and confinement of the virus. The big risk is of a sudden wave of cases with a sudden jump in hospital and ICU utilization, similar to what Italy is seeing now. If there aren't enough ventilators, people will die that otherwise would not have. If we can slow the virus spread, we can blunt the peak of healthcare utilization and *hopefully* there will be enough capacity to go around. Personally I think the cat's already out of the bag in parts of the US, and we're going to see a big jump over the next 7-10 days. Please wash your hands, and avoid non-essential travel and social gatherings, and keep your fingers crossed.


----------



## GGuy

cainvest said:


> That's a scary thought ... maybe I should have bought more than a can of coffee and trail mix at Costco last night.
> Think I'll drop into my local Walmart tonight to see what they are out of.


Was at Costco myself last night. Many folks buying water. Some with 2 or 3 cases. I chuckled... then bought a case! (not unusual we drink it on the road) 

Also bought a case of soup but only because we like it. Costco now carrying the Tim Hortons Vegetable soup which is excellent.


----------



## andrewf

like_to_retire said:


> Or travelers to anywhere for that matter. Why do we continue to accommodate these people. Just like the first case confirmed in Ottawa today, it was a traveler to Austria. Did they really need to travel? Why should I pay for that person, or any person's health care if they chose to travel during a pandemic?
> 
> Maybe we should cut off health care for anyone who travels and returns with a positive test.
> 
> ltr


We don't know how long they were in Austria. And Europe was deemed fairly safe until recently. Agreed that discretionary travel should really be thought about carefully. I have coworkers heading out for March break trips, and I'm thinking that they are a bit reckless.


----------



## fstamand

andrewf said:


> We don't know how long they were in Austria. And Europe was deemed fairly safe until recently. Agreed that discretionary travel should really be thought about carefully. I have coworkers heading out for March break trips, and I'm thinking that they are a bit reckless.


Europe except Italy and France maybe


----------



## AltaRed

Some schools are still thinking field trips to Europe during spring break. That just does not make any sense.

It is not so much the students and teachers themselves. It is if they bring the virus back and contaminate compromised family members thereafter.


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> I have coworkers heading out for March break trips, and I'm thinking that they are a bit reckless.


Actually now is likely a good time to book a vacation if you're young and in good health. I would guess there are some pretty good discounts going on right now, provided they don't cancel the flights. Of course you might have to put up with the quarantine issue which is another risk.


----------



## sags

It is a good thing, but scientists are baffled by why young children show no affects of COV19 infection. 

If they discover the answer it could provide a clue to an antidote that would be faster than the 18 month wait for a vaccine.


----------



## andrewf

cainvest said:


> Actually now is likely a good time to book a vacation if you're young and in good health. I would guess there are some pretty good discounts going on right now, provided they don't cancel the flights. Of course you might have to put up with the quarantine issue which is another risk.


Young, in good health and don't give a **** about friends and family (or okay with isolating yourself for 14 days proactively). Never mind who you might infect if you go to work on your return. 

Just because young people are unlikely to die doesn't mean it's just fine for them to expose themselves to infection. I think its sociopathic to think that way.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> Actually now is likely a good time to book a vacation if you're young and in good health. I would guess there are some pretty good discounts going on right now, provided they don't cancel the flights. Of course you might have to put up with the quarantine issue which is another risk.


#coronavacation #YOLO

Travelers worldwide are cancelling trips over coronavirus fears — but millennials are snapping up cheap flights despite the risks, and it says a lot about who they are as a generation


----------



## AltaRed

But I suspect none of them have a plan to handle a foreign quarantine, or how to get back home. But willing to yell to Ottawa to bail them out.


----------



## fstamand

Some will capitalize on extra two weeks payed quarantine.


----------



## m3s

I'm always amused when the government is criticized for not bailing everyone out during any crisis.. and for collecting any taxes the rest of the time


----------



## fireseeker

cheech10 said:


> I think my comments may have been misconstrued (as often happens in online discussions). The virus itself does not cause excessive mortality. The case fatality rate is low (flu 0.1%, covid-19 1%, ebola 20%+). The demographic data you link to is also misleading because those cases are aggregated from multiple countries that have done a poor job of surveillance, so the denominator is falsely low. This isn't a highly lethal virus.
> 
> The problem is, as you correctly state, the transmission. With a large number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases, and a somewhat long incubation period of up to 14 days, it's very hard to achieve effective surveillance and confinement of the virus. The big risk is of a sudden wave of cases with a sudden jump in hospital and ICU utilization, similar to what Italy is seeing now. If there aren't enough ventilators, people will die that otherwise would not have. If we can slow the virus spread, we can blunt the peak of healthcare utilization and *hopefully* there will be enough capacity to go around. Personally I think the cat's already out of the bag in parts of the US, and we're going to see a big jump over the next 7-10 days. Please wash your hands, and avoid non-essential travel and social gatherings, and keep your fingers crossed.


Cheech10, it is generous of you to share your insight with the forum. I appreciate it.

Good luck with your efforts at the hospital. That's appreciated, too.


----------



## MrMatt

cheech10 said:


> I think my comments may have been misconstrued (as often happens in online discussions). The virus itself does not cause excessive mortality. The case fatality rate is low (flu 0.1%, covid-19 1%, ebola 20%+). The demographic data you link to is also misleading because those cases are aggregated from multiple countries that have done a poor job of surveillance, so the denominator is falsely low. This isn't a highly lethal virus.
> 
> The problem is, as you correctly state, the transmission. With a large number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases, and a somewhat long incubation period of up to 14 days, it's very hard to achieve effective surveillance and confinement of the virus. The big risk is of a sudden wave of cases with a sudden jump in hospital and ICU utilization, similar to what Italy is seeing now. If there aren't enough ventilators, people will die that otherwise would not have. If we can slow the virus spread, we can blunt the peak of healthcare utilization and *hopefully* there will be enough capacity to go around. Personally I think the cat's already out of the bag in parts of the US, and we're going to see a big jump over the next 7-10 days. Please wash your hands, and avoid non-essential travel and social gatherings, and keep your fingers crossed.


CFR is misleading in the early stages. The estimated fatality rate is expected to be somewhere from 3-5%, not 1%

COVID19 is a Category 5, which is bad, the Pandemic scale only goes to 5.
It isn't Ebola or SARS, but it more communicable than those.


I do think some of the precautions are aggressive, but as they are messaging now, they want to flatten the curve.
This is coming, and hopefully we can slow it down enough to save some lives. 

Right now they're projecting most of the worlds population will get it, and that means tens of millions will die.

Austria is one of the latest to close their schools (effective this weekend).


----------



## robfordlives

This is worth a listen as he believes the forecast is overly pessimistic

https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/

Dr. Adalja is a Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity.

Dr. Adalja has served on US government panels tasked with developing guidelines for the treatment of plague, botulism, and anthrax in mass casualty settings and the system of care for infectious disease emergencies, and as an external advisor to the New York City Health and Hospital Emergency Management Highly Infectious Disease training program, as well as on a FEMA working group on nuclear disaster recovery. He is currently a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America’s (IDSA) Precision Medicine working group and is one of their media spokespersons; he previously served on their public health and diagnostics committees


----------



## MrMatt

robfordlives said:


> This is worth a listen as he believes the forecast is overly pessimistic
> 
> https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/
> 
> Dr. Adalja is a Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity.
> 
> Dr. Adalja has served on US government panels tasked with developing guidelines for the treatment of plague, botulism, and anthrax in mass casualty settings and the system of care for infectious disease emergencies, and as an external advisor to the New York City Health and Hospital Emergency Management Highly Infectious Disease training program, as well as on a FEMA working group on nuclear disaster recovery. He is currently a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America’s (IDSA) Precision Medicine working group and is one of their media spokespersons; he previously served on their public health and diagnostics committees


I'll listen to this today, I love Sam Harris.

It matters what forecasts you're looking at.
It depends how people react.
But we're clearly at the point where it is looking like millions or tens of millions of deaths.


----------



## sags

For anyone living in Ontario, here is a link to the latest information and status of patients infected.

Everyone who presents at a hospital with flu symptoms is being tested for coronavirus. It appears the tax dollars spent on central reporting was worthwhile.

https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

sags and others who were concerned that the US is not doing anything to stop the Corona virus, you will be pleased to hear that President Trump has taken decisive action in banning travel from Europe for 30 days.


----------



## sags

Trump is bringing in his son in law Jared Kushner to negotiate a peace deal with the coronavirus.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> I think we should keep our sense of humour about this as well. Society will weather this, and many will die, but life will go on.


Whose life will 'go on' andrewf? Your life, my life?

Our Canadian Minister of Health has told us it would be realistic to expect 30-70% spread of the virus. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...per-cent-of-canadians-could-be-infected-with/

I think people are still living in a bubble in regards to the ongoing impact this will have. I gave some numbers here yesterday on the affect of a 10% fatality rate with a 14% spread. That would result in 100,000 deaths for people over age 60. You can also add additional deaths for yourger people with underlying medical conditions which make them equally as at risk. If the spread goes to 30% then that would result in 200,000+ deaths and at 70% spread it would result in 500,000+ deaths. I don't think people are able to cope with such numbers, they remain somehow 'unreal' to them. 

When people say, 80% will only have a mild reaction, 20% will have a more serious reaction but only 1% will die, it makes it sound like it will only be a few people who die but that is not the reality. Many people will die, including people you and I know.

One jerk of a poster earlier on in this thread posting something about, 'who cares if a lot of no longer productive old people die'. That idiot is too dim to realize that if you remove ANY large number of consumers in any age group from the economy, a whole lot of people who have no one to sell their product or services too will care. Life will NOT go on for them. At least, not as it was before. They may be alive but unemployed.

Canada has an average of around 6.75 hospital beds per THOUSAND people. All of those of course cannot be used to treat patients of this virus with more serious treatment needs like ventilators. That says to me that it is pretty much a sure thing that capacity is going to be a real issue. What will you do when you are told your Mother or Brother or whoever needs to be put on a ventilator and there is none available? Tell a joke?

Some things just don't have any humour about them at all andrewf and this is one of them.


----------



## sags

There isn't much we can do about COV19 anyways and panic is never conducive to positive outcomes. All we can do is follow advice and protect ourselves as best we can.

Sometimes a little humor helps to relieve a bit of the stress. I think it is known as "nervous laughter".

Posted this in the bitcoin thread, but it works here as well. Turn the sound on.

[video]https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/fhg2ud/sound_on/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x[/video]


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> There isn't much we can do about COV19 anyways and panic is never conducive to positive outcomes. All we can do is follow advice and protect ourselves as best we can.
> 
> Sometimes a little humor helps to relieve a bit of the stress. I think it is known as "nervous laughter".
> 
> Posted this in the bitcoin thread, but it works here as well. Turn the sound on.
> 
> [video]https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/fhg2ud/sound_on/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x[/video]


Slow it and flatten the curve. 

There aren't enough ventilators or bed to take care of everyone. 
They are still testing to see what medical interventions are effective. Right now when you go to the hospital they are just hoping something works. The researchers are doing a lot of trials to determine what works best. 

I'd rather come down with this when. 
1. A ventilator is available. 
2.when they have a treatment plan.

The hope for a vaccine is not realistic, they've been working on one for decades. If you tell someone you have a cure for the common cold, they basically laugh at you.


----------



## sags

PM's wife is exhibiting symptoms of COV19 after returning from a speaking engagement in London, England.

She is self isolating herself and the PM has cancelled some meetings and is self isolating at home awaiting results of testing.

Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland will be the public face of the government in the meantime.


----------



## sags

So many people surviving the virus is a good thing, because researchers can look for anti-bodies developed to fight the virus in those who have recovered fully.

Just as the researchers are trying to learn why the fatality rate among children is near 0%, all information is important in finding a vaccine.

I think they will develop a vaccine and already have several good candidates, but it is the clinical trials that take a lot of time.

Clinical trials are an extremely important part of the development of a drug. They can't just inject people and hope for the best.

Without a lot of time wasted in negotiations for partnerships and applying for credit etc. etc........clinical trials can be sped along.

If they didn't already have good vaccine candidates, they wouldn't be talking about a vaccine completing clinical trials, being approved, and mass produced in a year.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> So many people surviving the virus is a good thing, because researchers can look for anti-bodies developed to fight the virus in those who have recovered fully.
> 
> Just as the researchers are trying to learn why the fatality rate among children is near 0%, all information is important in finding a vaccine.


There are other viruses that don't impact kids.
Vaccine is unlikely, they've been trying for years.


----------



## sags

Spending in research hasn't been the priority that it is now. Medical research is often one of the places that governments cut spending.

All the research labs in the world are focusing on this singular virus. They have developed a network to share information immediately worldwide.

Drug companies are setting profit margins aside and are not operating in the usual silos of secrecy to protect their proprietary information.

It IS different this time.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

There is one cure for the Corona virus. Something that kills or attenuates all kinds of pathogens, bacteria, viruses, and fungi. That is the Bob Beck Protocol. I have built the devices and used them and they work. But I don't expect anyone to believe me. Don't believe me, check it out for yourself and make up your own mind. As I prepare for a barrage of tomatoes, I ask only that you take them out of the can. 

The Beck Protocol https://www.bob-beck-protocol.be/downloads/beck-protocol-handbook.pdf

Lots more info available on Youtube and by a web search.


----------



## fstamand

Rusty O'Toole said:


> sags and others who were concerned that the US is not doing anything to stop the Corona virus, you will be pleased to hear that President Trump has taken decisive action in banning travel from Europe for 30 days.


Too late, and he single handedly sent the markets further into the hole.


----------



## AltaRed

fstamand said:


> Too late, and he single handedly sent the markets further into the hole.


The thing is Trump has lied so much for over 3 years, that nothing of what he says is really taken seriously any more. Never mind that what he says is so unintelligible in the first place. He got almost nothing right in what (and how) he said it last night that it simply reinforced he does not have hands on the wheel nor really has a clue as to what is going on.

He needs to hand over all this stuff to the experts who should know what they are talking about.


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> There is one cure for the Corona virus.


Nope, direct from WHO ....

*To date, there is no specific medicine recommended to prevent or treat the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV).*


----------



## OptsyEagle

You know what I think is interesting. We have many people speculating this and that today. Some optimistic, most right now seem to be leaning more pessimistic, but no one seems to have noticed that the number of people infected with Covid19 in China today is LESS then the number of people they reported infected yesterday.

Yes. You read that correct. LESS. Not a lot. 35 people less, but it was the first time I saw that. Whether it means much or not I will let your minds run away with it and decide, but don't you think it interesting that no one, but me, noticed that...except for probably quite a few people in China, must have.

Humans are very interesting to watch. Way better then animals or fish in an aquarium, if you ask me.


----------



## m3s

OptsyEagle said:


> Whether it means much or not I will let your minds run away with it and decide, but don't you think it interesting that no one, but me, noticed that...except for probably quite a few people in China, must have


China has been reporting they have it successfully contained for several days now.

Seeing as the virus has spread globally, I don't see how China will stop the virus coming back from any other country as soon as they reopen normal business..


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Rusty O'Toole said:
> 
> 
> 
> There is one cure for the Corona virus.
> 
> 
> 
> Nope, direct from WHO ....
> 
> *To date, there is no specific medicine recommended to prevent or treat the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV).*
Click to expand...

They are working on it, but China is still running trials on treatment options.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Yesterday I saw a news story that China and Korea are reporting a slowing down of new cases. So maybe their efforts at containment are taking effect.

As for the Beck Protocol I don't know if it will stop the corona virus because I haven't tried it on the corona virus. But I know it kills other viruses because I have been curing my own colds, flu and even a toothache with it for 5 years. I mean to keep on using it, you can do as you think best.


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Yesterday I saw a news story that China and Korea are reporting a slowing down of new cases. So maybe their efforts at containment are taking effect.


Looks like north america is taking containment seriously now. Many events have been cancelled, more to follow I'm sure.


----------



## fstamand

Ontario schools out until Apr 5


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Looks like north america is taking containment seriously now. Many events have been cancelled, more to follow I'm sure.


Ontario just shut all the schools.
Yeah, they're taking it seriously.

I'm thinking of buying Hanes stock, people have to got be sh**ting themselves, and they don't have the TP to wipe!


----------



## m3s

I just ordered some TP and canned goods on amazon subscribe & save as an experiment. First to test amazon prime during a declared state of emergency and second to see if I can resell it to hedge future losses


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I just ordered some TP and canned goods on amazon subscribe & save as an experiment. First to test amazon prime during a declared state of emergency and second to see if I can resell it to hedge future losses


I saw a guy yelling at a lady buying TP at walmart today.
I've got a good supply, I just laughed and walked away.


----------



## m3s

I keep the cupboards stocked as a matter of habit, bulk savings, and distaste for shopping in general

15% off on amazon subscribe + 5% cash back prime card competes with costco savings but I don't need to spend hours in traffic and the battle royale with infected zombies.

Just curious with all the news of empty shelves how amazon performs.


----------



## sags

The government should require insurance companies to allow prescription refills for 3 months ahead, in case the wholesalers close down.

It would give pharmacies the impetus to order the drugs and have them on hand to fill orders.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The government should require insurance companies to allow prescription refills for 3 months ahead, in case the wholesalers close down.
> 
> It would give pharmacies the impetus to order the drugs and have them on hand to fill orders.


The government should also allow the pharmacists to provide a supply that large.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I keep the cupboards stocked as a matter of habit, bulk savings, and distaste for shopping in general
> 
> 15% off on amazon subscribe + 5% cash back prime card competes with costco savings but I don't need to spend hours in traffic and the battle royale with infected zombies.
> 
> Just curious with all the news of empty shelves how amazon performs.


Amazon doesn't have any TP available, it all has "ships in 1 to 3 weeks" or worse


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Amazon doesn't have any TP available, it all has "ships in 1 to 3 weeks" or worse


On amazon Canada?

amazon US seems fine.. for now


----------



## Eder

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine' Once the vaccine is developed, it will take at least 90 days to complete the regulatory process


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101
> 
> Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine' Once the vaccine is developed, it will take at least 90 days to complete the regulatory process


So can we slow down the spread fast enough.


----------



## cainvest

Hopefully that poultry cure will work!


----------



## Parkuser

I am not impressed, gonna wait for COVID-2.0


----------



## Eder

I do like it that the Jews are developing this....I'm not Jewish but they take a lot more heat than any other race. I wonder if they will share it with Iran?


----------



## m3s

Eder said:


> I'm not Jewish but they take a lot more heat than any other race.


Queue another zionist world domination conspiracy?


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> The government should require insurance companies to allow prescription refills for 3 months ahead, in case the wholesalers close down.
> 
> It would give pharmacies the impetus to order the drugs and have them on hand to fill orders.


I think we need to be very careful with letting people hoard drugs. I know that major distributors in Canada are taking steps to secure additional supply, but hoarding will cause availability issues and potentially put people at risk. Given the panic buying at grocers (my grocery store was pandemonium this evening), the supply chains are going to be massively disrupted by this surge in demand (nevermind any issue with supply due to producer/distributor shutdowns). There is a lot of risk that drug makers will have production interruptions given reliance on Chinese molecules.

All that said, I have been telling everyone I know with breathing issues to ensure they have a good supply of their inhalers (Symbicort, etc.).


----------



## sags

I checked the list of fatalities and it has a lot of 40 and 50 year olds on it. They must have had health issues.

I am surprised that high blood pressure, cardiac problems, respiratory issues, and diabetes are the health issues, but they never mention obesity which is closely linked to all of them.


----------



## sags

Ontario is cancelling new jury trials. One wonders if they will keep sending people to prison for small offenses, with the danger of someone bringing in the virus.

They can't force people to take the test, so it could be a problem. Lots of problems will come up that we haven't even thought of yet.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ontario is cancelling new jury trials. One wonders if they will keep sending people to prison for small offenses, with the danger of someone bringing in the virus.
> 
> They can't force people to take the test, so it could be a problem. Lots of problems will come up that we haven't even thought of yet.


When did we start sending people to prison for small offenses?
We've been letting convicted murderers out of jail.

What do you mean we can't force people to "take the test"?


----------



## MrMatt

Sophie Grégoire Trudeau tests positive for coronavirus

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid19-trudeau-premiers-coronavirus-1.5495001

This is bad.
Hopefully it means they'll get serious about dealing with this crisis.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> When did we start sending people to prison for small offenses?
> We've been letting convicted murderers out of jail.
> 
> What do you mean we can't force people to "take the test"?


Detention centers are full of people who haven't even been to court yet. Many people are in detention centers serving sentences of 30 days or weekends for very minor crimes.

We have the notorious Elgin Middlesex Detention Center in our city. It was built to house 150 inmates and currently houses 450. 

Imagine the virus getting loose inside that facility. There is no possible way to "isolate" the people inside and if an outbreak occurred there it would overwhelm our local hospitals.

Nobody can be forced to take the COV19 test. People can refuse medical treatment. For the inmates what difference would a positive result make ?

I am not debating criminal justice, just looking at how those types of situations might be avoided.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...ils-are-unprepared-for-covid-19-outbreak.html


----------



## MrMatt

Covid 19 screening tests are not a medical intervention. I don't think there is a legal basis to refuse consent.

The lack of prison space is a serious problem. 

The thing is we let murderers and rapists, out without serving their sentences. I don't see an easy solution here. 

Killing them with covid 19 is not acceptable. Letting dangerous criminals out isn't acceptable either. 

This whole crisis is a series of impossible choices.


----------



## Longtimeago

Things are now moving at such a fast pace that it is becoming impossible to keep up with the changes. 

One area in particular is in regard to the March Break. Three provinces have just announced that they want all international travellers returning from ANY country to self-isolate for 14 days. Ontario has announced all schools will be closed till April 3, which is clearly also aimed at self-isolating people returning from a March Break vacation. Individual Provinces have started making statements about potentially moving to mandatory self-isolation for returning travellers under the Public Health Act which gives the the power to make it mandatory.

While it is not possible to predict what new steps will be taken even today or tomorrow, what seems to be becoming clear is the TRENDS. Those who left yesterday on a March Break vacation, may return to an entirely unexpected situation. Currently for example, people returning from say Italy are still being 'asked' to self-isolate but are also required to provide their name and address for Public Health officials to be able to follow-up and check if necessary that they are indeed self-isolating. By the time March Break vacationers start returning next week, they may find they are being 'ordered' to self-isolate. If so, many will no doubt find that a problem they had not anticipated and are not prepared for.

All levels of government now seem to be ramping up their responses at an ever increasing speed. Some step is announced today and that becomes superseded by an even more aggressive response tomorrow. Again, as I said, trends are starting to emerge that are somewhat predictable. I watched the press conference this morning of the Nova Scotia Premier and Provincial health officials. I have to say I was very impressed with them.

First, they all seemed to be on the same page and none of them were pulling any punches. In what they announced and in their responses to questions, they were very direct in what they were saying. For example, they have banned all gatherings of more than 150 people and when asked 'what if a Halifax bar has more than 150 people in it', the response was, 'we will be watching and will take the necessary steps to insure compliance.' When asked about returning travellers they said, 'we expect ALL returning travellers to self-isolate and if necessary under the Public Health Act we will 'order' compliance.

One comment by the Premier I noted in regard to that last point is that they expect all Nova Scotians who return from travel to 'do us the courtesy of self-isolating, we ALL have to take individual responsibility for protecting each other.' The message was clear though, if they don't do what is RIGHT for all, he and the health officials are not likely to be slow to make them do what is right.

I think we are now going to see more aggressive steps being announced regarding travel. Not because anyone thinks they can stop spread by isolating returning travellers but because it can still impact the 'flatten the curve' attempts. I think we are now trending towards announcements in the next few days telling everyone to avoid unnecessary travel to anywhere. In the Nova Scotia press conference, they even indicated that at some point they would not rule out even inter-provincial travellers being told to self-isolate. Bear in mind that Nova Scotia does not have 1 reported case yet. They don't expect that to last but do seem to be aggressively trying to 'flatten the curve' and to do so, are willing to take steps quickly in response to each change that occurs in the Province.

What will be the situation 2 weeks from now is unknown but I suspect that the trends to more and more attempts to 'flatten the curve' will be put in place. That now seems to be the phase we have entered. It's here, it's going to spread, we cannot expect to FULLY contain it any longer, we CAN expect to still impact the SPEED of the spread by implementing measures to 'flatten the curve'.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Covid 19 screening tests are not a medical intervention. I don't think there is a legal basis to refuse consent.
> 
> The lack of prison space is a serious problem.
> 
> The thing is we let murderers and rapists, out without serving their sentences. I don't see an easy solution here.
> 
> Killing them with covid 19 is not acceptable. Letting dangerous criminals out isn't acceptable either.
> 
> This whole crisis is a series of impossible choices.


MrMatt, screening is not testing. I'm sure you were referring to one or the other but for clarity, we should not combine the two together. Screening is being asked a few questions at an airport, maybe having your temperature checked and being given a written outline of steps to take if you develop symptoms. Testing is having a swab taken and analyzed by a lab to determine if you do or do not have the virus.

Some people still seem to think that everyone being 'screened' at an airport is being 'tested' and that is NOT what is happening.


----------



## Userkare

Longtimeago said:


> What will be the situation 2 weeks from now is unknown but I suspect that the trends to more and more attempts to 'flatten the curve' will be put in place. That now seems to be the phase we have entered. It's here, it's going to spread, we cannot expect to FULLY contain it any longer, we CAN expect to still impact the SPEED of the spread by implementing measures to 'flatten the curve'.


One of the many experts being interviewed by the media - there's been so many, I forgot who, when, where - said that they believed that the spread was inevitable, as much as 70% of the population possible. These measures of containment are meant to slow down the spread, so that medical facilities are not overwhelmed by everyone getting sick all at once. This makes sense; we're already seeing people recovering, so they can fill-in for the newly quarantined. More like a wave than a tsunami.


----------



## sags

People on social media are questioning why young, healthy athletes are getting immediately tested when old people showing symptoms can't get a test. 

It does appear there is a certain amount of rationing going on, with politicians, athletes, celebrities going straight to the front of the line.

There is no excuse for a shortage of test kits at this stage. The virus was known about since December.


----------



## sags

Good news......it appears there are 3 vaccines on stream in the US alone. The earliest by Gilead is entering clinical trials in April.

If the world can get through this year, there should be a vaccine available by next year.


----------



## GGuy

sags said:


> Good news......it appears there are 3 vaccines on stream in the US alone. The earliest by Gilead is entering clinical trials in April.
> 
> If the world can get through this year, there should be a vaccine available by next year.


That is great news. Hopefully they are effective. 

Gilead stock only down about 15% from their high but haven't spiked on that news.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> Covid 19 screening tests are not a medical intervention. I don't think there is a legal basis to refuse consent.
> 
> The lack of prison space is a serious problem.
> 
> The thing is we let murderers and rapists, out without serving their sentences. I don't see an easy solution here.
> 
> Killing them with covid 19 is not acceptable. Letting dangerous criminals out isn't acceptable either.
> 
> This whole crisis is a series of impossible choices.
> 
> 
> 
> MrMatt, screening is not testing. I'm sure you were referring to one or the other but for clarity, we should not combine the two together. Screening is being asked a few questions at an airport, maybe having your temperature checked and being given a written outline of steps to take if you develop symptoms. Testing is having a swab taken and analyzed by a lab to determine if you do or do not have the virus.
> 
> Some people still seem to think that everyone being 'screened' at an airport is being 'tested' and that is NOT what is happening.
Click to expand...

Screening is a generic term roughly meaning investigation. It may include questions, observations, or testing. 

My point was that screening, including non invasive testing, is not a medical intervention, and you have no grounds to refuse it.

If you are stopped under the public health act, you can be detained, questioned, and to an extent tested. You have no right of refusal of testing or treatment. 
Quite honestly I think they need this power, but IMO it is potentially a massive overreach of government power. 
It's also interesting, at what point does the governments interest in your body override your right of bodily autonomy. 

I agree with the logic, necessity of such power. However I do not think it compatible with our fundamental rights. 


From the act. 

(7.1) The Health Care Consent Act, 1996 does not apply to,

(a) an examination of a person to ascertain whether he or she is infected with an agent of a virulent disease, pursuant to an order made under this section;

(b) treatment of a person for a virulent disease, pursuant to an order made under this section. 1996, c. 2, s. 67 (3).

Please support your claim that you can refuse a Covid-19 test under any law in Canada.


----------



## sags

The relevant wording is "pursuant to an order made under this section".

People have the "sole" right to refuse medical treatment. Patient written consent is required except in cases of emergency where they cannot provide that consent.

There can be an application to the courts to order the medical treatment, but that is a lengthy hearing process that is only practical in extreme cases.

An example of an extreme case is when it involves a child requiring medical attention and the parents refusing to provide consent.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The relevant wording is "pursuant to an order made under this section".
> 
> People have the "sole" right to refuse medical treatment. Patient written consent is required except in cases of emergency where they cannot provide that consent.
> 
> There can be an application to the courts to order the medical treatment, but that is a lengthy hearing process that is only practical in extreme cases.
> 
> An example of an extreme case is when it involves a child requiring medical attention and the parents refusing to provide consent.



Actually you missed 2 points. 

The consent act does not apply to examinations.
Treatment requires an order under the act, so there is an additional step, but again consent is not required. 

Saying you can legally refuse to be examined for the virus, during a declared emergency is simply not true. 

I agree that it is a significant infringement on one's rights, but that is the law.


----------



## Eder

From a fellow yachtie from Korea

South Korea has tested over 200,000 people and, unlike the US, have hard data with which to make informed decisions. They have determined the mortality rate of Coronavirus is 0.8% for the overall population. It is higher if you are 80 years old and have other health issues, of course, but for most of us this is not a threat.


So much for the 4% rate.


----------



## Retiredguy

Eder said:


> From a fellow yachtie from Korea
> 
> South Korea has tested over 200,000 people and, unlike the US, have hard data with which to make informed decisions. They have determined the mortality rate of Coronavirus is 0.8% for the overall population. It is higher if you are 80 years old and have other health issues, of course, but for most of us this is not a threat.
> 
> 
> So much for the 4% rate.


Rather than "heard from a guy"..... heres a link to some actual current data. Italy, confirmed cases 17660, deaths 1266 = 7%

South Korea Confirmed cases 7979, deaths 71 = .9%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


----------



## Userkare

I got emails today from 3 (edit, make that 4 ) ( edit, make that 6 ) ( edit, make that 7 ) companies to assure me that everything will be business as usual in the face of COVID-19. 

VOIP.ms says my phone will keep working.
Oaken says that on-line banking will be working, but stay away from their branches if you're feeling ill.
Galen Weston says that they are cleaning all the high touch areas of PC groceries and Shoppers Drug Mart three times a day, eliminating the fees for PC-Express pick-up, and quickly restocking items that the hoards have ransacked.
Latest is Kijiji saying to clean items before you sell them, don't shake hands, and also put your snot rags in a lined waste bin ???? Thanks, mom.
Then BDO says client services will continue as normal.
CIBC the same.
Via Rail says they'll clean the trains more often and put hand sanitizer on board and in stations. Also cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough, you pigs!

Oh, I feel so much better now. These companies don't seem desperate at all. Don't worry, be happy!!!

Still, I can't help but think that if this is the "dress rehersal" for some really serious 80% mortality, hemorrhagic fever causing virus pandemic, with people's eyes bleeding and all, we are so fooooked!


----------



## MrMatt

Retiredguy said:


> Rather than "heard from a guy"..... heres a link to some actual current data. Italy, confirmed cases 17660, deaths 1266 = 7%
> 
> South Korea Confirmed cases 7979, deaths 71 = .9%
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


Look at the closed cases for the links you published.

The problem with CFR is it counts "not dead yet".

The good thing is stuff is trending, South Korea the Death rate is dropping (ie the Recovery rate is improving), and new cases has fallen and just crossed new recoveries!
Italy is still out of control, and their outcome rate is devestating. 

I'm hoping that the Italy & Korean data has a lot of unknown recoveries.

It's early data from France, Spain and the US, but look how bad the recovery rate is.


----------



## AltaRed

Average death rates are not terribly relevant. It matters by demographic.


----------



## Longtimeago

Retiredguy said:


> Rather than "heard from a guy"..... heres a link to some actual current data. Italy, confirmed cases 17660, deaths 1266 = 7%
> 
> South Korea Confirmed cases 7979, deaths 71 = .9%
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


Umm, that is not what I am seeing on that site.

Currently, for S. Korea it is showing 7398 active cases with 93(1%) being 'serious or critical'. BUT it also shows for CLOSED cases, 581 total cases closed with 71 deaths (12%). So that differs considerably in terms of active cases vs. CLOSED cases. The .9% you quote Retiredguy is in line with the percentage of serious/critical active cases but not with the CLOSED cases 12% mortality.

The Italy closed cases shows an even more alarming percentage of deaths, 47% out of a total of 2705 closed cases. 

Let's also remember that when we hear a percentage for the 'overall population' that is an entirely different thing altogether. The Worldometer numbers are reporting on CONFIRMED CASES AND CONFIRMED OUTCOMES which have nothing to do with overall population guesstimates. They are 'hard' numbers which are real whereas any guesstimates as to the outcome of the 'overall population' include guesstimates as to what percentage of that overall population will in fact conTract the virus to begin with, 30%? 70%, who knows. And a guesstimate as to what number of those who DO contract the virus will die.

So while we might hope the overall mortality rate will be lower than 1%, there is NO EVIDENCE showing that to be the case, it's conjecture and whether one 'expert' says it will be 1% or another 'expert' says it will be 4%, really doesn't matter. In the end it is only closed cases that can be relied on for DATA.

China is currently showing 5% deaths in closed cases. How reliable that data is however remains questionable. 

Iran is currently showing 13% deaths in closed cases. 

The Italy and Iran numbers raise questions in my mind in terms of perhaps how quickly it spread, how unprepared they were to cope in time and in the case of Iran, how inadequately they are equipped to cope. The Italy number of 47% mortality in closed cases is a number I find I am having difficulty accepting as I cannot think of any rational explanation for that 47% mortality rate.


----------



## Longtimeago

Userkare said:


> One of the many experts being interviewed by the media - there's been so many, I forgot who, when, where - said that they believed that the spread was inevitable, as much as 70% of the population possible. These measures of containment are meant to slow down the spread, so that medical facilities are not overwhelmed by everyone getting sick all at once. This makes sense; we're already seeing people recovering, so they can fill-in for the newly quarantined. More like a wave than a tsunami.


That was the federal Minister of Health Userkare who said it is not unrealistic to expect 30-70% of the population will be infected.


----------



## Longtimeago

AltaRed said:


> Average death rates are not terribly relevant. It matters by demographic.


Absolutely correct AltaRed. That is why the focus and emphasis being placed on individual people must now be to move to the next phase of 'flatten the curve' to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed which would result in beds not being available for those who need them AND at the same time have people get the MESSAGE, you are responsible for protecting the health if OTHERS as well as yourself.

Some 30 year old saying, 'oh if i get it, it will be no big deal, no worse than a cold or normal flu.' That 30 year old has to start realizing that if s/he gets it, they could TRANSMIT it to an 80 year old in their family or an 80 year old the brush against in a supermarket. It's not about responsibility to ME, it's about responsibility to all of US.


----------



## Userkare

Longtimeago said:


> That was the federal Minister of Health Userkare who said it is not unrealistic to expect 30-70% of the population will be infected.


Oh, sorry, I thought it was an expert.



Longtimeago said:


> That 30 year old has to start realizing that if s/he gets it, they could TRANSMIT it to an 80 year old in their family or an 80 year old the brush against in a supermarket. It's not about responsibility to ME, it's about responsibility to all of US.


That xx year old who is snatching up ridiculous amounts of masks, TP, hand sanitizer, and antiseptic wipes, amongst other things, should realize it's not about them hoarding everything in sight, whether they need it or not, it's about making sure they are taking only what they need, and leaving enough for everyone else who may also need it..... So, how's that been working out?


----------



## Longtimeago

Userkare said:


> Oh, sorry, I thought it was an expert.
> 
> 
> 
> That xx year old who is snatching up ridiculous amounts of masks, TP, Hand Sanitizer, and antiseptic wipes, amongst other things, should realize it's not about them hoarding everything in sight, whether they need it or not, it's about making sure they are taking only what they need, and leaving enough for everyone else who may also need it..... So, how's that been working out?


There will always be a percentage of people Userkare who act irresponsibly. We cannot stop that but if given the right information, MOST people will act fairly responsibly. In the case of my example 30 year old, often it is just a case of pointing out to them the potential outcome of their actions. 

By the way, re hoarding, the largest toilet paper provider Kruger, has made it known that we will NOT run out of toilet paper and the shelves will be full again. They are just dealing with the 'spike' in demand. I also have to commend them for saying they will not change their prices to take advantage of any panic buying. That's a responsible corporate citizens response. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/kruger-tissue-covid-19-1.5495960

I also like the ending statement about, "We'll have a lull afterwards," he said. "Because at the end of the day, you're only going to use so much tissue." If he had left out, 'of the day' and just said, 'in the end', it would have been quite a good pun.


----------



## Userkare

Longtimeago said:


> There will always be a percentage of people Userkare who act irresponsibly.


An anagram of "pandemic"... "dem panic". As for the hoarding, it was the same 'expert' who quoted 70% that suggested we 'stock-up'.


----------



## GGuy

Retiredguy said:


> Rather than "heard from a guy"..... heres a link to some actual current data. Italy, confirmed cases 17660, deaths 1266 = 7%
> 
> South Korea Confirmed cases 7979, deaths 71 = .9%
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


Something not right here. Death rate in Italy = 7% Death rate in South Korea = .9% Both substantial sample sizes.

The global Death rate is 7% (according to the link posted) so I think the South Korea deaths are not being counted/attributed correctly or South Koreans have much better immune systems than normal or they are treating it differently/better. 

I think it's an error. And if not then the WHO needs to investigate how South Koreans are treating it.

EDIT: Just read post #642 by Longtimeago who also questioned this and did a deeper dive on the numbers that makes sense.


----------



## m3s

South Korea has drive-through COVID-19 tests - results within hours via smartphone

USA is limiting tests to those w critical condition or travel history to an affected area. We just had a Q&A with our US doc and he doesn't have access to any tests or info about em yet. He will have to redirect anyone with COVID-19 symptoms to the ER

That tells me all I need to know about the difference in stats


----------



## MrMatt

GGuy said:


> Something not right here. Death rate in Italy = 7% Death rate in South Korea = .9% Both substantial sample sizes.
> 
> The global Death rate is 7% (according to the link posted) so I think the South Korea deaths are not being counted/attributed correctly or South Koreans have much better immune systems than normal or they are treating it differently/better.
> 
> I think it's an error. And if not then the WHO needs to investigate how South Koreans are treating it.
> 
> EDIT: Just read post #642 by Longtimeago who also questioned this and did a deeper dive on the numbers that makes sense.


Look at the recovery rate. The Case Fatality rate, just isn't a good measure early in a pandemics initial stages.
Read up on it yourself. I've posted enough here


----------



## Eder

Retiredguy said:


> Rather than "heard from a guy"..... heres a link to some actual current data. Italy, confirmed cases 17660, deaths 1266 = 7%
> 
> South Korea Confirmed cases 7979, deaths 71 = .9%
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


I am aware of all this stuff...I guess the point is that Korea actually tested most of their cases and suspected cases unlike the USA & Canada. Our data is unreliable. Surprised I had to explain on a financial forum but carry on!


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> I am aware of all this stuff...I guess the point is that Korea actually tested most of their cases and suspected cases unlike the USA & Canada. Our data is unreliable. Surprised I had to explain on a financial forum but carry on!


South Korea still only has a recovery rate of 88%.
That 12% death rate is a hell of a lot higher than the data coming out of China.


----------



## Longtimeago

Userkare said:


> An anagram of "pandemic"... "dem panic". As for the hoarding, it was the same 'expert' who quoted 70% that suggested we 'stock-up'.


Sigh, 'stock up' does not equal 'hoarding' or 'panic buying'. We are simply being told it would be wise to 'stock up' with a 2 week supply in CASE we are asked to self-isolate for a 2 week period.

Why do people have to always see things as an either/or extreme. Stocking up for a 2 week period is not hoarding, it's simply good advice given the circumstances. OR would you like to try and explain to me why it is NOT good advice?


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> That 12% death rate is a hell of a lot higher than the data coming out of China.


Italy is 53% recovered, 47% deaths today.


----------



## Longtimeago

Today's latest. We are now being told of NEW measures regarding travel.

1. Avoid all non-essential international travel. It is now on the government Travel Advisory page, right at the top: https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/advisories
2. The number of airports where international flights will be allowed to land is going to be limited in order to focus resources and do more thorough screening of all incoming international arrivals. Not announced yet which airports or when that will come into affect.
3. No cruise ships with more than 500 passengers will be allowed in Canadian ports. That's obviously to avoid having to deal with large numbers of passengers who could overwhelm local hospitals.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6671621/justin-trudeau-coronavirus-travel/

I suspect the airports that will be accepting international arrivals will probably be named tomorrow and I further suspect that it may affect returning March Break vacationers. For example, many package holiday flights go directly from Regional Airports like London, Ontario but may not be allowed to return there directly.

I suspect that we are likely to see a further requirement that all returning international travellers self-isolate for 2 weeks. That may well be in place by the time March Break vacationers return.

Now really is not a time to travel as you have no way of knowing what conditions will apply when you return but I think the indications are getting pretty clear as to what they are likely to be.


----------



## Eder

cainvest said:


> Italy is 53% recovered, 47% deaths today.


Thanks...saved me a lot of typing...now I remember why I'd make a poor politician but a great mass murderer.


----------



## andrewf

Eder said:


> From a fellow yachtie from Korea
> 
> South Korea has tested over 200,000 people and, unlike the US, have hard data with which to make informed decisions. They have determined the mortality rate of Coronavirus is 0.8% for the overall population. It is higher if you are 80 years old and have other health issues, of course, but for most of us this is not a threat.
> 
> 
> So much for the 4% rate.


If 70% of the population is likely to end up with it, are we sure that even 0.8% of 70% is no biggie? 200k Canadians.

Another way to spin this is that this disease seems to kill young people in their prime at about the rate the flu kills everyone combined.

And yet another way to spin this is that S. Korea's experience is only valid in a contained outbreak where the health care system is not overwhelmed. Underscoring the importance of slowing the spread of the disease.


----------



## andrewf

Userkare said:


> Still, I can't help but think that if this is the "dress rehersal" for some really serious 80% mortality, hemorrhagic fever causing virus pandemic, with people's eyes bleeding and all, we are so fooooked!


If something that deadly but as communicable as this virus were to spreaded, we would indeed well and truly f-ed. The moderate case fatality ratio is the only thing keeping people reasonably calm. Apparently bird flus have had case fatality ratios as high as 60%, but can't consistently spread from human to human (mostly poultry to human). If that were to change that is pretty damn sobering.


----------



## s1231

Learning + utilizing from history/past experience from other countries...

Inform kids, young + healthy or anybody should be aware avoiding become a super spreader that may led impact on to others. 
( avoid passing on the virus to parents, grandparents, uncle, aunts, whoever has pre-existing condition - young or old, group of people, small or big town, country etc.)

May need self-isolate for 20 days. a case is shown with an incubation period of 37 days so each of us cautious to this incubation time + make a good effort not spreading the viruses to anywhere. 

Delay or slowdown the arrival may we have benefits of milder affects so worth to try. 
Wear mask when coughing --- mask should be accessible for not spreading the germs/viruses.
(The price & purchasing boxes per month should be regulated & affordable)
no mask available? cover the mouth + nose with bandana etc. 
---

- In places like Alaska, the Spanish flu exacted a terrible toll. But while some communities suffered many deaths, others nearby escaped the carnage. How?

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20181023-the-places-that-escaped-the-spanish-flu
“Numerous settlements in Alaska were unaffected, largely because of quarantines established along travel routes or their remoteness. Communities at the time were very self-sufficient for food and clothing. They were not as dependent on food and goods imported from elsewhere in the United States [compared to today].”

...It’s not clear why those attempts to delay the arrival of the disease reduced the mortality rates in these places. But research has suggested that over time, as the virus burned its way through populations, it accumulated mutations that naturally reduced its capacity to cause disease.

Another possibility could be that some populations may have acquired a degree of immunity within the population.
“In some areas, the older populations particularly were not as affected as much because they had some protection that they probably acquired when they were children.”

- 10 People Who Were The Patient Zero Of A Deadly Epidemic
https://listverse.com/2016/06/29/10-people-who-were-the-patient-zero-of-a-deadly-epidemic/

The most infamous patient zero on our list is a man named Gaetan Dugas. He was an Air Canada flight attendant and was identified by scientists in the late 1970s as the first person to bring the HIV/AIDS epidemic to the US.
Dugas was publicly named by journalist Randy Shilts in his 1987 book And The Band Played On. Upon the book’s release, the New York Post covered the story with the headline, “The Man Who Gave Us AIDS,” forever linking the name Gaetan Dugas with the devastation of the HIV/AIDs epidemic.

However, scientists have now learned that it is highly unlikely that patient zero in the HIV/AIDS epidemic was Gaetan Dugas. A recent genetic study using blood samples taken in the late 1970s has concluded that the virus probably came to New York City in 1970 and was linked to existing viruses then present in Haiti and other Caribbean countries. 

- lancet Published:March 11, 2020
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext

Median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days.

- How to make a mask. Easy Don't sew, just fold Washable
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42Ti9v3MhNI


----------



## m3s

Mexico is considering closing its border with the USA

Trump may get Mexico to pay for the wall after all?


----------



## Eder

*Dr. Anthony Fauci* (_Anthony Stephen Fauci is an American immunologist who has made substantial contributions to HIV/AIDS research and other immunodeficiencies, both as a scientist and as the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health_.) *testified that the mortality rate for COVID-19 will likely run near 1%.*

So much for our forum experts quoting 4-44%. Or is this guy a quack?


----------



## cainvest

Was in Walmart tonight ... first TP now the bread shelves were completely empty!
A number of other items were in low supply but overall there was still lots of food available.

I guess more people are stocking up now.


----------



## m3s

1% is orders of magnitudes higher than the common flu

Mortality rate of the elderly is where you get the higher numbers



cainvest said:


> I guess more people are stocking up now.


How were the lineups?

I heard the lineups are the problem here (state of emergency now) I did a drive by and saw no available parking

I'll go during the off peak hours


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> How were the lineups?
> 
> I heard the lineups are the problem here (state of emergency now) I did a drive by and saw no available parking
> 
> I'll go during the off peak hours


No line ups, normal store traffic for later at night.


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> 1% is orders of magnitudes higher than the common flu
> 
> Mortality rate of the elderly is where you get the higher numbers


And I would gather the rates will be nearly the same for future outbreaks when they get a vaccine out.


----------



## doctrine

Eder said:


> *Dr. Anthony Fauci* (_Anthony Stephen Fauci is an American immunologist who has made substantial contributions to HIV/AIDS research and other immunodeficiencies, both as a scientist and as the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health_.) *testified that the mortality rate for COVID-19 will likely run near 1%.*
> 
> So much for our forum experts quoting 4-44%. Or is this guy a quack?


Well so far the active death rate is closer to 7% - total recoveries divided by total deaths. While minor infections may be missed, so may some deaths. But in most countries now, there are so many sick people that you can't get a test unless you are hospitalized which will raise the death rate. That is not a good sign either. 

Also, when the hospitals get overrun by hundreds of people such as in Italy, not everyone gets a ventilator. That massively increases the death rate too. If 10,000 get sick, 2,000 may need hospitalization. That might be okay, but if 3 days later you have 20,000 sick, and 3 days later you have 40,000 sick, and a week later you have 100,000 sick, where are you going to put 20,000 people requiring respiratory assistance?


----------



## sags

The nursing home in Washington State has been in the news for weeks right ?

Well, they have the results of the tests of the employees of that home......after all this time and all but 18 because they ran out of test kits.

47 positive for the virus
24 negative for the virus
1 inconclusive for the virus
5 pending results
18 pending specimen collection (planned for 3/14)
95 symptomatic

This is a WTF type of announcement. All these test kits that are supposed to be available........where are they ?

The entire Utah Jazz basketball team was tested immediately. The excuse it was necessary because they are super-spreaders is horse manure because the season is suspended.

58 healthy young athletes who would likely suffer no worse than mild symptoms get tested, while nursing home workers and older people on a cruise ship don't is also a WTF moment.

Some passengers on the cruise ship floating around off the coast of California have still not been tested.

It is becoming clear that rationing of testing is happening. The same scenario will happen if they need to ration healthcare.

Good news......the State of New York took matters into their own hands, have their own test and have set up drive thru testing on an island.

The CDC and US government response has been abysmal and the excuses for it are lame.

Kudos to State and municipal governments and leaders for filling the vacuum of leadership where they can.

Edit......an inspection of the nursing home in Washington showed that of 190 employees only 3 showed up for work to care for 90 residents. They had no PPE available.


----------



## sags

We had 1 case of confirmed COV19 and she has recovered fully and without problems. We currently have 0 confirmed cases.

Our university has closed down and that releases 25,000 students to go home. That will relieve some pressure on our University Hospital located next to campus.

And yet, the lineups for cashiers in grocery stores extend from one end of the store to the other. The parking lots of all the grocery stores are full. 

On the other side........food banks aren't getting the supplies they need, and blood clinics are running low.

People are going into survival mode due to all the news.


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> *Dr. Anthony Fauci* (_Anthony Stephen Fauci is an American immunologist who has made substantial contributions to HIV/AIDS research and other immunodeficiencies, both as a scientist and as the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health_.) *testified that the mortality rate for COVID-19 will likely run near 1%.*
> 
> So much for our forum experts quoting 4-44%. Or is this guy a quack?


It really matters, but I'd like to know where he got that number.
It is currently much high according to ALL published data. Even the CFR data doesn't show a 1% rate is likely.
Find any source you want, and IMO none of it suggests a 1% rate is possible unless something changes.

If a treatment protocol is developed, (AFAIK we still don't have one) that could dramatically improve the odds.
If we flatten the curve so the hospitals aren't as overloaded, it will also improve. We quite simply can't hospitalize an additional 1-10% of our population. 

If we get a good treatment protocol, and if we slow/flatten enough to treat people, we might see improvements.

FYI a Vaccine only helps if you get the vaccine BEFORE you contract the virus. 

We're months out on the vaccine, and while they have made Coronavirus vaccines before, we still don't have a cure for the "common cold" which is a coronavirus a third of the time.



FYI, nice lengthly article with more information than a normal person would want.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

All the news outside the of the mainstream media is showing a death rate far worse than the seasonal flu.


----------



## sags

Here is the thing people would really like to know.

How long is this virus going to continue to be active ? Weeks, months, years ? The answer to that would give some guidance for the response and preparations.


----------



## sags

A massive study of outcomes of those infected.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130


----------



## sags

I am wondering if governments are leaving out some options to combat viruses such as the COV19 and others coming in the future.

China makes the masks and ventilators for the world, and they stopped exporting them when they were hit with the virus. There is some talk of China opening up those exports again.

What I wonder is why they aren't developing the best possible personal protective equipment, such as masks, eye protection, and gloves well above today's standards.

Dispensing such equipment to the public at times of crisis would greatly cut down the transmission of the virus from person to person.

Until they are needed, PPE should be stored in warehouses across Canada for use during a crisis.

We are playing catch up with vaccines and not developing better protective equipment against becoming infected in the first place.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> A massive study of outcomes of those infected.
> 
> https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130


Great study, lots of detail.
but it uses CFR.....


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Here is the thing people would really like to know.
> 
> How long is this virus going to continue to be active ? Weeks, months, years ? The answer to that would give some guidance for the response and preparations.


There is no way to know the answer to that question sags. It is POSSIBLE that like the common flu, warmer weather will decrease the rate of spread. They know this happens with the flu but cannot say why it happens. So it may or may not happen with Covid-19, they have no way of knowing. On the other hand, it may continue to spread right through the summer or dip and then rise again nearer the end of the year.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> *Dr. Anthony Fauci* (_Anthony Stephen Fauci is an American immunologist who has made substantial contributions to HIV/AIDS research and other immunodeficiencies, both as a scientist and as the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health_.) *testified that the mortality rate for COVID-19 will likely run near 1%.*
> 
> So much for our forum experts quoting 4-44%. Or is this guy a quack?


Eder, rather than picking ONE 'expert' you WANT to listen to and hang your hat on, try asking yourself why other 'experts' disagree and what that should tell you. The real answer is they do not KNOW what the final mortality rate will be. They're all guessing right now. They may be 'educated guesses' but they are still guesses.

But even if it is 1%, what is your point? If 50% of our population gets infected, that 1% represents a death toll of 175,000 Canadians. As Boris Johnson, PM of the UK said, 'we may all lose loved ones.' That includes YOU Eder.


----------



## andrewf

cainvest said:


> Was in Walmart tonight ... first TP now the bread shelves were completely empty!
> A number of other items were in low supply but overall there was still lots of food available.
> 
> I guess more people are stocking up now.


Once the wave of hoarding passes, the supply chain will catch up. I expect grocery stores to be back to 'normal' by next weekend. You will be able to gets eggs, milk, bread next weekend--please don't hoard.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Here is the thing people would really like to know.
> 
> How long is this virus going to continue to be active ? Weeks, months, years ? The answer to that would give some guidance for the response and preparations.


Credible estimates seem to be in the range of 18 months. Expect another wave next (northern) winter. Hopefully treatments are successfully developed in that time to improve outcomes (antivirals and vaccines).


----------



## Longtimeago

Along with the travel advisory to avoid all unnecessary international travel, all returning international travellers including those who have travelled to the USA, are now being asked (as of yesterday) to self-isolate for 14 days. Consider what that means.

All those who have left on March Break will return next week or the week after and be told to self-isolate. They will be expected to go directly from the arrival airport which may not be the airport they departed from given the number of airports accepting international flights is being limited, to their homes. As part of that expected self-isolation, they will NOT be expected to stop at a supermarket on the way home to buy 2 weeks of groceries. 

So they will first have to arrange a way to get home from their arrival airport and then once they get home they will have to arrange a way to get groceries to their home if they had not already stocked up before going away.

Those who depart on international travel as of today will face the same thing only they will be able to stock up before they go.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> I am wondering if governments are leaving out some options to combat viruses such as the COV19 and others coming in the future.
> 
> China makes the masks and ventilators for the world, and they stopped exporting them when they were hit with the virus. There is some talk of China opening up those exports again.
> 
> What I wonder is why they aren't developing the best possible personal protective equipment, such as masks, eye protection, and gloves well above today's standards.
> 
> Dispensing such equipment to the public at times of crisis would greatly cut down the transmission of the virus from person to person.
> 
> Until they are needed, PPE should be stored in warehouses across Canada for use during a crisis.
> 
> We are playing catch up with vaccines and not developing better protective equipment against becoming infected in the first place.


Ontario had 55M N95 masks as preparedness after SARS. There were allowed to expire ('medical devices' have expiry dates). Not sure if that means we won't use them. I'm sure in the case that our healthcare workers run out of masks it is better to have expired masks than nothing at all. The disappointing idea is that we weren't rotating these masks. All normal consumption should come out of the stockpile to help keep it current. Normal consumption might not be enough to keep it fully refreshed but helps to reduce the cost. Any excess could be donated to less developed countries that don't get sufficient medical supplies. I'm guessing this was somewhat victim to government spending cuts.

And really, the important thing here is not to have a bunch of masks for general public (they should get regular surgical masks only to reduce the risk of them spreading, not to protect individuals). The important thing is protect medical staff who are constantly exposed to the virus. Not a good use of resources to waste on general public.


----------



## Longtimeago

Regarding 'social distancing' combined with the returning travellers being asked to self-isolate, think about what that means in your everyday life.

I have an appointment next Friday to have my hair cut. Either in a confirming phone call before my appointment or immediately on my arrival, I EXPECT to be asked if I have returned from international travel. If I were to answer yes, I EXPECT to be told, 'I'm sorry we will have to cancel your appointment until your 14 days of self-isolation is finished.' If I do not get asked that question, how would I know if the person in the chair before me was in fact someone who was breaking their 'self-isolation' or not?

I have started receiving e-mails from companies like the airlines, hotels, supermarkets, etc. telling me what steps they are taking because of Covid-19. SMALL businesses shoulld be taking similar steps as well. Your barber or hairdresser is an example of where that should be happening. Your own place of business if you are not retired should be doing the same. If you have co-workers who you know are away on March Break, they should not be turning up to work on their return. IF they do, you should be calling them out and they should not be allowed to return to work for 14 days after their return.

Each individual has a part to play in 'flattening the curve'. I hope all of you will be doing your part.


----------



## Longtimeago

Regarding testing. No one needs to be tested who does not display symptoms. There will never be enough test available to do that. 

In some cases such as the Toronto Raptors, they were all tested. That needs to stop. Testing needs to be confined to those who have a reason to be tested. Our PM has not been tested even though his wife has tested positive. She was tested BECAUSE she showed symptoms. PM Trudeau is still not showing any symptoms and so has not needed to be tested so far. That is as it should be and is a correct example of when someone NEEDS to be tested.


----------



## cainvest

Was discussing last night with a few people ... anyone see any real research data on re-infection rates yet?

There are a number of "press related" articles stating people did get reinfected but looking for cdc/who type reports.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Once the wave of hoarding passes, the supply chain will catch up. I expect grocery stores to be back to 'normal' by next weekend. You will be able to gets eggs, milk, bread next weekend--please don't hoard.


Agreed, hoarding is not stocking up for 2 weeks in case you need to self-isolate. No one needs to set aside 100 rolls of toilet paper for a 2 week period. Even at a roll a day you only need 14 rolls. Having those 14 rolls set aside though IS a good idea in case you need to self-isolate. 

For those who want to 'prepare' as opposed to 'hoard', I suggest that if you are having a problem finding certain items, you probably live in a city. I have seen no signs of shortages near our area but we live in a small town, an hour from the nearest small city. So if you are in a city and having a problem, try driving OUT of the city to smaller towns where people are not 'hoarding' to the same extent as in the cities. But if you do, don't buy everything on the shelves, only what you NEED for a 14 day self-isolation.

There are now people selling products in demand, online at hugely inflated prices. Making money of people's fears. Disgusting.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Was discussing last night with a few people ... anyone see any real research data on re-infection rates yet?
> 
> There are a number of "press related" articles stating people did get reinfected but looking for cdc/who type reports.


I am not aware of any real evidence either way. That said, I would think that the obvious way to act would be to PRESUME it is possible. So someone who has recovered should behave the same way as someone who has not yet been infected.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I have an appointment next Friday to have my hair cut. Either in a confirming phone call before my appointment or immediately on my arrival, I EXPECT to be asked if I have returned from international travel. If I were to answer yes, I EXPECT to be told, 'I'm sorry we will have to cancel your appointment until your 14 days of self-isolation is finished.' If I do not get asked that question, how would I know if the person in the chair before me was in fact someone who was breaking their 'self-isolation' or not?


Expecting every retail place to be asking about isolation is futile, just like walking into any store right now ... you won't know if someone infected was there just before you.


----------



## jargey3000

Longtimeago said:


> Along with the travel advisory to avoid all unnecessary international travel, all returning international travellers including those who have travelled to the USA, are now being asked (as of yesterday) to self-isolate for 14 days. Consider what that means.
> 
> All those who have left on March Break will return next week or the week after and be told to self-isolate. They will be expected to go directly from the arrival airport which may not be the airport they departed from given the number of airports accepting international flights is being limited, to their homes. As part of that expected self-isolation, they will NOT be expected to stop at a supermarket on the way home to buy 2 weeks of groceries.
> 
> So they will first have to arrange a way to get home from their arrival airport and then once they get home they will have to arrange a way to get groceries to their home if they had not already stocked up before going away.
> 
> Those who depart on international travel as of today will face the same thing only they will be able to stock up before they go.


...yeah....good luck with THAT!....
I'm afraid not everyone is as conscientious as most of the good people her on CMF!
who's monitoring all this???


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Regarding testing. No one needs to be tested who does not display symptoms. There will never be enough test available to do that.
> 
> In some cases such as the Toronto Raptors, they were all tested. That needs to stop. Testing needs to be confined to those who have a reason to be tested. Our PM has not been tested even though his wife has tested positive. She was tested BECAUSE she showed symptoms. PM Trudeau is still not showing any symptoms and so has not needed to be tested so far. That is as it should be and is a correct example of when someone NEEDS to be tested.


Actually since you are contagious before symptoms, everyone in contact with people should be tested.

I agree there aren't enough tests.


----------



## jargey3000

Longtimeago said:


> There is no way to know the answer to that question sags. It is POSSIBLE that like the common flu, warmer weather will decrease the rate of spread. They know this happens with the flu but cannot say why it happens. So it may or may not happen with Covid-19, they have no way of knowing. On the other hand, it may continue to spread right through the summer or dip and then rise again nearer the end of the year.


..that's all well & good....for places that GET warmer weather! what about here, in NL??...:smiley_simmons:

BTW..FWIW....no cases reported here yet...touch wood!(taps head)
there's talk afoot about shutting down the airport...


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Ontario had 55M N95 masks as preparedness after SARS. There were allowed to expire ('medical devices' have expiry dates). Not sure if that means we won't use them. I'm sure in the case that our healthcare workers run out of masks it is better to have expired masks than nothing at all. The disappointing idea is that we weren't rotating these masks. All normal consumption should come out of the stockpile to help keep it current. Normal consumption might not be enough to keep it fully refreshed but helps to reduce the cost. Any excess could be donated to less developed countries that don't get sufficient medical supplies. I'm guessing this was somewhat victim to government spending cuts.
> 
> And really, the important thing here is not to have a bunch of masks for general public (they should get regular surgical masks only to reduce the risk of them spreading, not to protect individuals). The important thing is protect medical staff who are constantly exposed to the virus. Not a good use of resources to waste on general public.


Yes, that was an unfortunate mistake they made and I am sure have now learned from for the future. I suspect the issue was that they were a centrally held stockpile rather than a small stockpile in each hospital. All hospitals have systems in place to turn over inventory, it is just they are rarely funded enough to have excess inventory that they need to turn over.

Masks are like my comment above re testing. They are not needed by anyone UNTIL they start to exhibit symptoms. They do not protect the wearer walking down the street from catching the virus. They should be available to the general public but there is no need to wear one before you have symptoms. 

The masks being worn by medical staff are NOT to protect them andrewf, the gloves, gown and face shield are there to do that. The mask is worn to stop a medical worker who may have caught the virus but is not showing symptoms while at the same time being able to spread the virus, from spreading the virus. It protects others, not the wearer.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Expecting every retail place to be asking about isolation is futile, just like walking into any store right now ... you won't know if someone infected was there just before you.


Yes, there are limits to what can be done or expected to be done. But that does not mean that where it can be easily done it should NOT be done cainvest. It is not an either/or extreme. All or none. It is an ALL where it is relatively possible to do so.

It is easy for your hairdresser to ask each customer, they don't have hundreds or thousands a day like a supermarket where it would be next to impossible to do it. Every action taken to flatten the curve will help and should be done where practical. Again, everyone needs to be doing their part where they can. I see nothing impractical or difficult in expecting your hairdresser to do their part.


----------



## Longtimeago

jargey3000 said:


> ..that's all well & good....for places that GET warmer weather! what about here, in NL??...:smiley_simmons:
> 
> BTW..FWIW....no cases reported here yet...touch wood!(taps head)
> there's talk afoot about shutting down the airport...


The biggest single factor in spread jargey3000 is DENSITY and access is another factor. If you live on an island with a less dense population, as you do, then it will probably reach you later and there will be less spread overall even after it does.

Cities are the worst place to live in a situation like this. Earlier in this thread I suggested now might be the time for people to consider going to live at their cottage for a few months. I was not joking, it would no doubt be safer if that have that option.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Yes, there are limits to what can be done or expected to be done. But that does not mean that where it can be easily done it should NOT be done cainvest. It is not an either/or extreme. All or none. It is an ALL where it is relatively possible to do so.
> 
> It is easy for your hairdresser to ask each customer, they don't have hundreds or thousands a day like a supermarket where it would be next to impossible to do it. Every action taken to flatten the curve will help and should be done where practical. Again, everyone needs to be doing their part where they can. I see nothing impractical or difficult in expecting your hairdresser to do their part.


I think the hairdresser would be far better off just keeping their area/tools clean and assume each person coming in was infected. For those at high-risk and seriously concerned about catching the virus, stay home. Much more effective advice IMO.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Actually since you are contagious before symptoms, everyone in contact with people should be tested.
> 
> I agree there aren't enough tests.


In an ideal world yes, testing everyone would be better but you would also have to test them repeatedly since a negative test today says nothing about what the result would be if you were tested again tomorrow.

I get a little annoyed when they keep saying, 'if you have been in contact with someone who has travelled'. How does anyone know if they have been in contact with someone who has travelled or not? You only know the answer to that question in regards to people you 'know', not people you brushed shoulders with in the supermarket. Again, in an ideal world anyone who has travelled would wear a sign saying, 'avoid me, I have travelled' but we live in the real world, not an ideal world.

There will never be enough tests to test the entire population repeatedly or even once, so there is no point in saying, 'we should test everyone'. We have to deal with what is possible and therefore what makes the most sense in terms of how to use our resources.


----------



## Longtimeago

jargey3000 said:


> ...yeah....good luck with THAT!....
> I'm afraid not everyone is as conscientious as most of the good people her on CMF!
> who's monitoring all this???


No they are not but everything those who are does will help. Do your conscientious best jargey3000 and that's all anyone can ask of you.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> I think the hairdresser would be far better off just keeping their area/tools clean and assume each person coming in was infected. For those at high-risk and seriously concerned about catching the virus, stay home. Much more effective advice IMO.


Consider the practicalities of your suggestion cainvest. Does your hairdresser/barber have a waiting area where those waiting their turn are seated more than a metre apart and do they wipe down the seats with disinfectant after each person has sat in one?
Does the person who washes your hair to start wear a new pair of gloves before each wash and do they use a new 'cover sheet' (I don't know what name they use for the sheet they put over you) each time so that your hands are not touching the inside of that sheet where the previous person's hands were.
Does your haircutter use a new sheet each time and do they use new or sterilized scissors for each person?

It is not practical to expect the haircutter to take all the steps they would need to take to insure no transmission from a previous customer to you. But it IS practical to expect them to simply ASK each customer if they have returned from international travel. It will not stop ALL possibilities of spread but it will REDUCE the possibilities.


----------



## sags

People are confusing the different types of masks.

Surgical masks, typically the blue or white ones people wear around, are of no value at all. There don't fit tight enough to stop the virus from coming in or going out.

The N95 mask forms tightly to the face, and offer the best chance of not contacting the virus by airborne means. These are used in hospital settings to protect health professionals.

It has become clear the virus is contagious before symptoms are shown. Some people never show any symptoms at all or they are very mild and barely noticeable.

I wonder for example how someone like Mrs. Trudeau is exposed to the virus. One assumes some precautions were taken.

She flies on a military aircraft back and forth and presumably isn't standing/sitting close to people showing symptoms.


----------



## m3s

A lot of the advice is good in theory but impractical

For example we had a US military Dr briefing a group not to touch our face, then point out everyone who touched their face shorty after and we laughed how it's like an impulsive reflex. Then he said "Fingerprints actually come from the oil in our face/hair because our fingertips don't produce that much oil"

I had a group of retired visitors this week and tried to make light of not shaking hands (we've been joking with fist bumps and such at work) They seemed a bit confused (many looked +75 definitely at risk as we have community spread) To which the lead boomer came up and defiantly shook my hand

Some official policies came out on Friday and I think we'll be at min staffing soon


----------



## jargey3000

sags said:


> People are confusing the different types of masks.
> 
> Surgical masks, typically the blue or white ones people wear around, are of no value at all. There don't fit tight enough to stop the virus from coming in or going out.
> 
> The N95 mask forms tightly to the face, and offer the best chance of not contacting the virus by airborne means. These are used in hospital settings to protect health professionals.
> 
> ms.



apparently this is the greatest mask, ever, of all time...










https://www.etsy.com/se-en/listing/561422417/trump-face-halloween-costume-mask


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Consider the practicalities of your suggestion cainvest. Does your hairdresser/barber have a waiting area where those waiting their turn are seated more than a metre apart and do they wipe down the seats with disinfectant after each person has sat in one?
> Does the person who washes your hair to start wear a new pair of gloves before each wash and do they use a new 'cover sheet' (I don't know what name they use for the sheet they put over you) each time so that your hands are not touching the inside of that sheet where the previous person's hands were.
> Does your haircutter use a new sheet each time and do they use new or sterilized scissors for each person?
> 
> It is not practical to expect the haircutter to take all the steps they would need to take to insure no transmission from a previous customer to you. But it IS practical to expect them to simply ASK each customer if they have returned from international travel. It will not stop ALL possibilities of spread but it will REDUCE the possibilities.


That is why I said, if you're seriously concerned about getting the virus from your hairdresser, stay home!

Also note that since there is community spread, asking only about travel is futile. Sure, maybe they could hang a sign on the door that says "Go home" if you think you're infected but if the person is already out and about for a hair cut I just don't see that as being effective.

*You'll have to put restrictions on yourself in these situations, again if you're concerned to this level, stay home*! 

If you pull up to a drive-thru for food/drink are you going to ask if any employee's have been on a recent international holiday or been in direct contact with someone that has? Same with any high volume traffic stores, are all employee's tested/screened before coming to work?

BTW, since I cut my own hair this is non-issue for me.


----------



## m3s




----------



## Userkare

Longtimeago said:


> Agreed, hoarding is not stocking up for 2 weeks in case you need to self-isolate. No one needs to set aside 100 rolls of toilet paper for a 2 week period. Even at a roll a day you only need 14 rolls. Having those 14 rolls set aside though IS a good idea in case you need to self-isolate.
> 
> For those who want to 'prepare' as opposed to 'hoard', I suggest that if you are having a problem finding certain items, you probably live in a city. I have seen no signs of shortages near our area but we live in a small town, an hour from the nearest small city. So if you are in a city and having a problem, try driving OUT of the city to smaller towns where people are not 'hoarding' to the same extent as in the cities. But if you do, don't buy everything on the shelves, only what you NEED for a 14 day self-isolation.
> 
> There are now people selling products in demand, online at hugely inflated prices. Making money of people's fears. Disgusting.


You are being very rational. Yes, preparing for the possibility that you're isolated for two weeks doesn't require 100 rolls of T.P., for example, and yet we still see the shelves being emptied of it as soon as they're restocked. So, can I assume then, that there are many people who are not acting rationally? What I''ve been saying all along is that I have little faith in my fellow humans to act rationally when they are afraid.

So, let me guess; there's a single Foodland store in your typical Ontario small town? At normal times, a small town grocery will stock enough to serve the community where it's located; they learn over time what products need to be ordered at what intervals. Locals, just doing prudent additional stocking-up, will strain that supply. Then, if an influx of 'visitors' from the surrounding cities were to even do just normal shopping, it might cause shortages in these small town groceries. Now, throw in the irrational people who really don't give a **** about you, or your small town, only themselves, will strip the shelves bare. Sure, once the hoard has withdrawn, the shelves will be restocked and back to normal soon.

If you disagree, how about an experiment? Post on reddit r/ontario and r/(nearbycities) that your local Foodland has shelves full of TP, Purell, pasta, tuna, KD, etc. so that they can prudently stock up. Take pictures in and around the store before and after.


----------



## Longtimeago

Userkare said:


> You are being very rational. Yes, preparing for the possibility that you're isolated for two weeks doesn't require 100 rolls of T.P., for example, and yet we still see the shelves being emptied of it as soon as they're restocked. So, can I assume then, that there are many people who are not acting rationally? What I''ve been saying all along is that I have little faith in my fellow humans to act rationally when they are afraid.
> 
> So, let me guess; there's a single Foodland store in your typical Ontario small town? At normal times, a small town grocery will stock enough to serve the community where it's located; they learn over time what products need to be ordered at what intervals. Locals, just doing prudent additional stocking-up, will strain that supply. Then, if an influx of 'visitors' from the surrounding cities were to even do just normal shopping, it might cause shortages in these small town groceries. Now, throw in the irrational people who really don't give a **** about you, or your small town, only themselves, will strip the shelves bare. Sure, once the hoard has withdrawn, the shelves will be restocked and back to normal soon.
> 
> If you disagree, how about an experiment? Post on reddit r/ontario and r/(nearbycities) that your local Foodland has shelves full of TP, Purell, pasta, tuna, KD, etc. so that they can prudently stock up. Take pictures in and around the store before and after.


Where do you live userkare, a city, a small town? Yes there is one smaller supermarket in my small town. There are also a half dozen others in a half dozen other small towns all around us. Then there are several much larger supermarkets all within a half hour or so of us. Our local small supermarket serves mainly locals but we get lots of tourists, travellers passing through who also stop and shop there. They don't empty the shelves every holiday long weekend anymore than some 'outsiders' coming into town this week to buy some things would do.


----------



## Userkare

Longtimeago said:


> Where do you live userkare, a city, a small town? Yes there is one smaller supermarket in my small town. There are also a half dozen others in a half dozen other small towns all around us. Then there are several much larger supermarkets all within a half hour or so of us. Our local small supermarket serves mainly locals but we get lots of tourists, travellers passing through who also stop and shop there. They don't empty the shelves every holiday long weekend anymore than some 'outsiders' coming into town this week to buy some things would do.


I live in a rural part of the City of Ottawa; in what used to be a small town before being swallowed into Ottawa. I can drive .5 hr, non-rush hour, to be pretty much anywhere in the urban center which has 4 Costcos, and maybe 10 or so Superstores, not to mention several Sobey's, FreshCo, Farm Boy, and Independent PC groceries. This is for a city of around 1 million, in which AFAIK there are 5 reported cases of COVID-19. Yet, several people have reported that there are long lines in those big stores with people loading carts with way more than what would be considered prudent under the situation. Some shelves of particularly high demand items are emptied as soon as they're stocked; and we're talking about really big stores. Why? We also have a few Foodland and Independent groceries in nearby communities in and just outside the Ottawa boundary. These are small stores as compared to the ones I mention in urban Ottawa. I can only imagine how quickly those stores would be picked clean if all the people who couldn't get what they needed in the big stores were to drive the .5 hour to descend on these small stores. Luckily, the big stores seem to be able to restock quickly, so I don't think it would come to the point that the hoards will overrun our little local grocery stores.

In the small town that has a periodic tourist influx, I would think that the groceries know to stock a little extra to handle that situation; probably in the summer months, unless you have some popular ski hill nearby? This is not what I'm talking about; that's a predictable bubble, pandemics aren't so much.

We will make our once every 2 to 3 week pilgrimage to Costco next week. I am not looking forward to it. We've already agreed that if it's a madhouse, we'll just go to the local store we normally get the day-to-day stuff. Unlike you, I'm not about to encourage others to follow.


----------



## sags

Nobody knows how long to stock up for.......unknown unknowns.

I am considering adding powdered milk and eggs and more flour to the pantry, so we can bake food if necessary. 

My wife is from Poland/Germany and can make a lot of good meals out of nothing but potatoes and old shoes.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Nobody knows how long to stock up for.......unknown unknowns.
> 
> I am considering adding powdered milk and eggs and more flour to the pantry, so we can bake food if necessary.
> 
> My wife is from Poland/Germany and can make a lot of good meals out of nothing but potatoes and old shoes.


Many places have shut schools for March Break +2 weeks.

But they shut Parliment down for over 5 weeks.

We might get an idea how long when they break the wuhan quarantine, which is one of the first.


----------



## Eder

The infection rate in China turned out to be .00005% of the total population. (So why is Canada’s health minister saying “30% to 70%” of us could be infected?)


----------



## m3s

How do you know the infection rate of China without testing the entire population?

Infection rate would depend on both people following instructions and biological differences (immune system etc)


----------



## Userkare

sags said:


> My wife is from Poland/Germany and can make a lot of good meals out of nothing but potatoes and old shoes.



German wife too, plus my Italian mother passed on her recipes to my wife. 

We have no old shoe recipes as such, but it does raise the point that I discussed with my wife this morning. The stuff we buy isn't what is being hoarded; nobody is grabbing up bags of dried lentils. But, if we can't even get into the Costco parking lot, or if there are line-ups at the check-out to the back of the store, then lets not go in.

If it turns out we run out of everything, I'll PM you for your Kartoffel schuh recipe :^)


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> The infection rate in China turned out to be .00005% of the total population. (So why is Canada’s health minister saying “30% to 70%” of us could be infected?)


We've seen these dieseases before, and they don't think we'll get Chinese levels of containment.


----------



## GGuy

Here's a very interesting story published in the NY Times with chart analysis on how intervention can reduce the spread. They mention that the figures are for America, but the lessons are broadly applicable to any country. 

Opinion | How Much Worse the Coronavirus Could Get, in Charts
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

No surprise that they say... " it depends on the actions we take — and, crucially, on when we take them". 

They show cases peaking in July/August timeframe. I think it will be hard to see stability in the markets until at least then (assuming they are correct).


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Many places have shut schools for March Break +2 weeks.
> 
> But they shut Parliment down for over 5 weeks.
> 
> We might get an idea how long when they break the wuhan quarantine, which is one of the first.


Even in Wuhan, they did not close grocery stores or pharmacies. There is no reason to panic about food. The advice to stock up was in the event you need to isolate yourself if you become symptomatic. 

I popped in the store today to pick up onions (didn't have any on Thu when I went). Things are already getting back to normal. The panicked hordes are gone, no lines. TP, bread and milk heavily depleted, but the shelves are filling up again. I think in part the store doesn't have enough staff to deal with the insanity. Give it a few more days and things will be good. I did find a bag of onions, thankfully!


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Even in Wuhan, they did not close grocery stores or pharmacies. There is no reason to panic about food. The advice to stock up was in the event you need to isolate yourself if you become symptomatic.
> 
> I popped in the store today to pick up onions (didn't have any on Thu when I went). Things are already getting back to normal. The panicked hordes are gone, no lines. TP, bread and milk heavily depleted, but the shelves are filling up again. I think in part the store doesn't have enough staff to deal with the insanity. Give it a few more days and things will be good. I did find a bag of onions, thankfully!


The government will do everything they can to keep the systems running.
That being said, i don't want to go out and deal with crazy. Having a bit of extra food lets me relax and step back.

When I saw the guy yelling at the woman in Walmart on Thursday, I just turned around and walked away. Didn't even get any TP for myself or neighbours.

Having a buffer helps you stay calm.


----------



## Eder

m3s said:


> How do you know the infection rate of China without testing the entire population?
> 
> Infection rate would depend on both people following instructions and biological differences (immune system etc)



I guess using total cases/population doesn't work.? We use South Korea which has tested more than any country with an infection rate of .01% and slowly rising...they most likely are over the hump at 107 new cases today.


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> I guess using total cases/population doesn't work.? We use South Korea which has tested more than any country with an infection rate of .01% and slowly rising...they most likely are over the hump at 107 new cases today.


Yeah, South Korea active cases are flatlining, and I'm thrilled that the Recovery rate is over 90%!


----------



## robfordlives

I'm starting to get abit panicky here. Spain is now on lockdown and as far as I know they took the same steps we are talking with ban on large events. It's just a matter of time before all countries will be on complete lockdown. Forget a recession, this will be a possible depression event that will make 1929 look like nothing. Am already hearing anecdotal stories of business really slowing down. The government can not prop up all industries. I am 10 years from retirement at 44 now and not overly concerned with down markets in the past as I could DCA in however i'm somewhat concerned about my job now as well. Yes, this will pass - worst case 18 months from now I would say....but at what damage?


----------



## AltaRed

That is why you have sufficient cash/fixed income reserve in an emergency fund, and in your portfolio. This too will pass but depth and length is unknown.


----------



## sags

On the CBC....the government is advising anyone who is abroad should get back home while it is still possible.

It sounds like some more action on our borders might be coming.

Newfoundland has it's first presumptive case. I went driving around for a bit and lots of people walking around and nobody wearing a mask.


----------



## cainvest

No reason to panic, hopefully with the steps taken and travel now getting reduced things will get under control.

WHO reported the following today,

_Europe has now become the epicenter of the pandemic, with more reported cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined, apart from China_

Lets just hope the actions taken now will be enough to stop anywhere else from becoming the epicenter in the coming weeks.


----------



## robfordlives

AltaRed said:


> That is why you have sufficient cash/fixed income reserve in an emergency fund, and in your portfolio. This too will pass but depth and length is unknown.


I certainly do, but would anyone be surprised at a 80% drop in stocks from here? I'm not saying it's the likely outcome but I don't even think it's absurd to ask at this point. We would all be financially devastated with the definition being that our standard of living will be markedly different


----------



## MrMatt

robfordlives said:


> I'm starting to get abit panicky here. Spain is now on lockdown and as far as I know they took the same steps we are talking with ban on large events. It's just a matter of time before all countries will be on complete lockdown. Forget a recession, this will be a possible depression event that will make 1929 look like nothing. Am already hearing anecdotal stories of business really slowing down. The government can not prop up all industries. I am 10 years from retirement at 44 now and not overly concerned with down markets in the past as I could DCA in however i'm somewhat concerned about my job now as well. Yes, this will pass - worst case 18 months from now I would say....but at what damage?


The big risk is Canada closing the US border, our tourism will get hammered, and Trump will be unhappy.

The thing is Canada is moving a bit slow, but they're trying to keep a balance. 
I'm hoping we don't follow the Italian (or UK or US) examples. 

They are moving fast, they're trying to balance the issues. The MPs voted to give the party leaders the power to act, I think they're working on building a good plan.

That being said, there are no good solutions to this, but Trudeau & the other parties are not going to be tied down by partisan rhetoric.
They're going to negotiate behind closed doors, and ideally present a united front that the measures they are taking are responsible and appropriate.

Keep supplies going, cut the partisan crap, and come together. We're going to succeed here.

Now people just need to take this seriously, but not panic. I hope we can get that message out.


----------



## sags

Ontario reported a big increase in cases today. It is kind of hard to make out what the numbers are though as they are reported in a bizarre manner.


----------



## cheech10

So much misinformation here. From an ICU physician who is planning to run a COVID unit in the coming weeks:

1 - mortality rate from the virus itself is around 1%, in line with the South Korean and cruise ship data (and Dr. Fauci's opinion). The big assumption here is that there are enough medical resources to go around. Between 5 and 10% of patients need mechanical ventilation in an ICU, and Italy shows us what happens when there aren't enough ICU beds and ventilators: people die in greater numbers. But this is a function of the transmission of the virus and the outbreak overwhelming the health system, not the intrinsic nature of the virus. 
Case fatality rate is inaccurate in the early stages, but it is an overestimate, not an underestimate, due to incomplete testing and a falsely low denominator. Recovery rate is significantly underestimated, because it too relies on widespread testing to determine the number of recovered cases (determining number of deaths is easy), and it takes much longer to certify a patient as recovered because you need 2 negative tests at least 24 hours apart. 

2 - masks (regular yellow or blue or white masks) are effective in protecting the wearer from infection, if combined with gloves, gowns, and visors or face shields (but it is also very easy to contaminate yourself if you're not trained in putting them on and taking them off, which is why it's not recommended for the general public). These are our standard precautions for droplet spread, the mode of transmission for the virus. The exception is aerosol generating procedures (intubation, bronchoscopy, non-invasive ventilation) for which airborne precautions are needed (N95 masks, negative pressure rooms).

3 - I'm crossing my fingers so hard that we slow this virus from spreading with the measures currently in effect. Ideally, we would close the borders, close non-essential businesses, and put our cities on lockdown, but I'm not sure the general population is prepared for that kind of effort given the relatively low numbers of cases so far. I fully expect we will see lockdowns in the next couple of weeks though (hopefully not too late by then).


----------



## jargey3000

FWIW ...we went thru an 8-day SOE here in January . due to a snowstorm though...not a virus...
either way...NO FUN!...and, that was just 8 days!!!


----------



## AltaRed

robfordlives said:


> I certainly do, but would anyone be surprised at a 80% drop in stocks from here? I'm not saying it's the likely outcome but I don't even think it's absurd to ask at this point. We would all be financially devastated with the definition being that our standard of living will be markedly different


None of us should have put ourselves in a position NOT to weather a 50% equity market decline or so, and that may take 5 years to recover. We all know about volatility and risk. Could it be worse than 50% and a 5 year recovery? Yes, but that is a very low probability. A lot of GDP must go on such as consumer staples and there will continue to be cash flow and earnings in the vast majority of businesses. Look to the Great Depression as an 'uncontrolled' example. Central bankers can do better. 

COVID-19 will run the critical part of its course in 6 months. That will permit Q4 earnings to recover in a significant way by early next year.

My biggest question mark at the moment is how much will my investment income, e.g. dividends, drop over the course of this year? Companies who keep their payout ratios below 50% probably will do just fine. Avoid leveraged companies and those with high dividend payouts.

Added: I don't empathize much with those investing on margin or taken out LOCs or HELOCs to invest that could truly suffer. They either should know the risks of equity investing or they shouldn't be in the market in the first place.


----------



## m3s

cheech10 said:


> 3 - I'm crossing my fingers so hard that we slow this virus from spreading with the measures currently in effect. Ideally, we would close the borders, close non-essential businesses, and put our cities on lockdown, but I'm not sure the general population is prepared for that kind of effort given the relatively low numbers of cases so far. I fully expect we will see lockdowns in the next couple of weeks though (hopefully not too late by then).


By the look of the latest numbers on the John Hopkins tracker "other locations" is increasing exponentially while China has gone flat. Western media was highly critical of China's response and we had all this time to prepare..


----------



## AltaRed

cheech10 said:


> So much misinformation here. From an ICU physician who is planning to run a COVID unit in the coming weeks:
> 
> 1 - mortality rate from the virus itself is around 1%, in line with the South Korean and cruise ship data (and Dr. Fauci's opinion). The big assumption here is that there are enough medical resources to go around. Between 5 and 10% of patients need mechanical ventilation in an ICU, and Italy shows us what happens when there aren't enough ICU beds and ventilators: people die in greater numbers. But this is a function of the transmission of the virus and the outbreak overwhelming the health system, not the intrinsic nature of the virus.
> Case fatality rate is inaccurate in the early stages, but it is an overestimate, not an underestimate, due to incomplete testing and a falsely low denominator. Recovery rate is significantly underestimated, because it too relies on widespread testing to determine the number of recovered cases (determining number of deaths is easy), and it takes much longer to certify a patient as recovered because you need 2 negative tests at least 24 hours apart.
> 
> 2 - masks (regular yellow or blue or white masks) are effective in protecting the wearer from infection, if combined with gloves, gowns, and visors or face shields (but it is also very easy to contaminate yourself if you're not trained in putting them on and taking them off, which is why it's not recommended for the general public). These are our standard precautions for droplet spread, the mode of transmission for the virus. The exception is aerosol generating procedures (intubation, bronchoscopy, non-invasive ventilation) for which airborne precautions are needed (N95 masks, negative pressure rooms).
> 
> 3 - I'm crossing my fingers so hard that we slow this virus from spreading with the measures currently in effect. Ideally, we would close the borders, close non-essential businesses, and put our cities on lockdown, but I'm not sure the general population is prepared for that kind of effort given the relatively low numbers of cases so far. I fully expect we will see lockdowns in the next couple of weeks though (hopefully not too late by then).


Thank you for some sensibility! That all said, the overall fatality rate of 1% isn't all that useful to those of us over 70. We know the S. Korea numbers have a higher rate at older demographics. Spouse and I will be taking extra isolation measures me thinks.


----------



## cainvest

AltaRed said:


> Spouse and I will be taking extra isolation measures me thinks.


And that is a key point here, for those at higher risk, protect yourself!

I bet a number of older people and/or those with underlying conditions are preparing to hunker down, possibly the cause of empty store shelves right now (not blaming, just saying). If the confirmed case numbers rise in Canada, and they very likely will, it's a darn good idea to limit your social actions or even eliminate them to the best of your ability.


----------



## OptsyEagle

robfordlives said:


> I certainly do, but would anyone be surprised at a 80% drop in stocks from here? I'm not saying it's the likely outcome but I don't even think it's absurd to ask at this point. We would all be financially devastated with the definition being that our standard of living will be markedly different


Pull yourself together lad. Time for a shot of something. Whiskey works well.

Now. Picking a big number out of the air and then worrying about it does you and no one else any good. Obviously no one can say where and when this thing will bottom, but we probably all have an opinion.

Here is mine. Whatever happens with this virus will primarily happen in 2020. I doubt anyone here is expecting a death rate of higher then 10% and I personally feel the number will most likely come in, at worst case, when considering not just infected but the entire population, to be below 1% or 2%. That means by 2021, 98% of the population will need more food, more clothing, definitely need a vacation, probably a car, might start looking for that new house, etc., etc., etc.

The world will be OK. You will either live or you will die. If you live, you overcame the problem. If you die, you have no more problem. Take a shot of something and if you have something more tangible to discuss, just post it. Firing out numbers like that don't help calm anyone and certainly don't help readers to be better investors on Monday.


----------



## sags

Average fatality rates don't mean diddly squat to people in the high risk category and that includes a lot of people. 

All the baby boomers and anyone with cancer, diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure and respiratory problems. Think of how many people fit in those categories.

I looked at the ages of the fatalities the other day and was expecting a lot of 80 and 90 year olds and there were hardly any. The vast majority of fatalities were 40-50.

I suspect that health conditions are much more of a factor than age. Obesity should also be on the list, as it creates all those health problems.

It has reached the time for the government to take extreme action. Many of the new cases are being brought in by people traveling here from somewhere else.

Shut the borders to non-Canadians and institute a mandatory quarantine at a designated location for all Canadian arrivals. 

Don't want to be quarantined......don't go. We must stop all outside contamination before it overwhelms our system.


----------



## AltaRed

OptsyEagle said:


> Here is mine. Whatever happens with this virus will primarily happen in 2020. I doubt anyone here is expecting a death rate of higher then 10% and I personally feel the number will most likely come in, at worst case, when considering not just infected but the entire population, to be below 1% or 2%. That means by 2021, 98% of the population will need more food, more clothing, definitely need a vacation, probably a car, might start looking for that new house, etc., etc., etc.


Just imagine how much cash free spenders will also have burning a hole in their pockets having had to hunker down for 6 months. The rush to buy in 2021 could jump start anything.


----------



## andrewf

^A lot of lost productive economic output though as many workplaces shut down. I am involved in some big projects and investment decisions, and this is probably going to slow things down. Especially given we work with suppliers from Europe. We had a person from Austria on site last week who became symptomatic after returning home and testing positive. I'm expecting significant delays...


----------



## MrMatt

cheech10 said:


> So much misinformation here. From an ICU physician who is planning to run a COVID unit in the coming weeks:
> 
> 1 - mortality rate from the virus itself is around 1%, in line with the South Korean and cruise ship data (and Dr. Fauci's opinion). The big assumption here is that there are enough medical resources to go around. Between 5 and 10% of patients need mechanical ventilation in an ICU, and Italy shows us what happens when there aren't enough ICU beds and ventilators: people die in greater numbers. But this is a function of the transmission of the virus and the outbreak overwhelming the health system, not the intrinsic nature of the virus.
> Case fatality rate is inaccurate in the early stages, but it is an overestimate, not an underestimate, due to incomplete testing and a falsely low denominator. Recovery rate is significantly underestimated, because it too relies on widespread testing to determine the number of recovered cases (determining number of deaths is easy), and it takes much longer to certify a patient as recovered because you need 2 negative tests at least 24 hours apart.


Wow, scary.
Stats are based on what we know, we have to assume a large number of undetected cases to get to 1%.
Case fatality rate is absolutely an underestimate in the early stages. 
Lets say 100 people are positive and 1 dies and 1 recovers.
Your CFR is 1%, your recovery rate is 50%.

The actual outcome is likely to be between those 2 numbers.
of the 98%, some will live and some will die.
Once those 100 people are all the way through, you'll have a better understanding.

The only way that the logic of the CFR being an overstimate is that you simply assume there are really 1000 cases, you only know about 100 of them, so despite the 1% calculated, it's really about 0.1%.

I agree this is possible, and there are a lot of cases being missed. But I have trouble believing that they've totally missed the 60-80% of cases that turn the 3-5% CFR into a 1% CFR.

I'm sure that people smarter than me are looking into it, but as a somewhat risk adverse person.

I'm skeptical that the vast majority of cases are completely fine and being missed.
Maybe half a million people have it and we don't know. In that case even flattening the curve is starting to look futile.


----------



## sags

Most people who contact the virus will only have mild symptoms and not report to health authorities.

But........it appears the virus is more virulent among young people now. Maybe it has mutated over time.

France announced they are at Level 3, heading towards a generalized epidemic. 

4500 cases in France, which doubled over the past 72 hours.

300 plus serious cases in ICU units and more than 50% of them are younger than 60.


----------



## Eder

cheech10 said:


> So much misinformation here. From an ICU physician who is planning to run a COVID unit in the coming weeks:
> 
> 1 - mortality rate from the virus itself is around 1%, in line with the South Korean and cruise ship data (and Dr. Fauci's opinion). .


Thanks for chiming in...so much BS in this thread, must be annoying for you professionals. Keep up the good work & keep us old farts alive lol.


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> Thanks for chiming in...so much BS in this thread, must be annoying for you professionals. Keep up the good work & keep us old farts alive lol.


I think the 1% fatality rate isn't supported by any publicly available data.

It is only possible if you assume every single person who has the diesease and hasn't died yet, won't.
That's unlikely, and misleading.
https://reason.com/2020/03/12/is-a-1-case-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-bad-news-or-good-news/

In any case it's an order of magnitude higher than flu, and if it spreads worldwide could kill tens of millions.


----------



## robfordlives

AltaRed said:


> None of us should have put ourselves in a position NOT to weather a 50% equity market decline or so, and that may take 5 years to recover. We all know about volatility and risk. Could it be worse than 50% and a 5 year recovery? Yes, but that is a very low probability. A lot of GDP must go on such as consumer staples and there will continue to be cash flow and earnings in the vast majority of businesses. Look to the Great Depression as an 'uncontrolled' example. Central bankers can do better.
> 
> COVID-19 will run the critical part of its course in 6 months. That will permit Q4 earnings to recover in a significant way by early next year.
> 
> My biggest question mark at the moment is how much will my investment income, e.g. dividends, drop over the course of this year? Companies who keep their payout ratios below 50% probably will do just fine. Avoid leveraged companies and those with high dividend payouts.
> 
> Added: I don't empathize much with those investing on margin or taken out LOCs or HELOCs to invest that could truly suffer. They either should know the risks of equity investing or they shouldn't be in the market in the first place.


Duly noted on the shot....I guess what I'm thiking here is would some market timing make sense here? Does anyone expect anything but bad news headlines in the next six weeks? Yea yea it is all priced in....I don't think lockdown of an entire country is priced in. What are the probabilities of that? Sadly after news of Spain, France and now UK pleading for more ventilators I fear we are headed towards that. 

I am also somewhat perplexed that the Italian stock market has actually fallen far less than the S&P


----------



## sags

The Canadian government is warning people to return home immediately as future flights into Canada may soon not be available.

Many Canadians are scrambling to book flights are finding there are no seats available. A couple of people said they don't want to be in Mexico if they get sick.

It sounds like the government is going to close everything down if the situation continues to get worse.


----------



## robfordlives

Ummmm.....look at weekly sales drop versus prior year. Malls in my major city are cutting hours. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...A3E-SVqMOMSIht-eYEF_4qrNGOJuPbDjTsPD/pubhtml#


----------



## robfordlives

dunno why you can't edit post here....anyways look at the city/state/etc tabs in the link I sent. Alberta down 50% already versus prior year weekly data as per OpenTable reservations


----------



## sags

If news means anything to stock markets, this weekend should produce a a market crash on Monday. I don't know how it can be avoided.

Anything is possible though. I couldn't believe the market rebound on Friday based on nothing but bad news.


----------



## robfordlives

sags said:


> If news means anything to stock markets, this weekend will produce a a market crash on Monday. I don't know how it can be avoided.


I'd be shocked if we don't hit the second limit down on S&P on Monday (13%)


----------



## cainvest

robfordlives said:


> I'd be shocked if we don't hit the second limit down on S&P on Monday (13%)


It's a tough call on the markets this week, difficult to gauge the fear level. Was out a fair bit today, normal for the most part but definitely a little less busy in stores,restaurants,etc. People still stocking up on supplies, some store shelves were pretty bare.


----------



## doctrine

Fear will be pretty ripe on Monday. France and Germany might be shut down by then. Spain is now. UK and US are up next.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I am in agreement that the rebound on Friday was way overdone so I suspect we would at least get a technical pull back on Monday, but whether we hit one or two circuit breakers is impossible to know nor important.

We can pretty much guarantee a large drop in GDP in Q2, since Q1 is almost over and it is obvious that our society responded to this threat very, very slowly. Will it run into Q3, Q4 and a little into 2021. No one knows. I don't know if anyone noticed this, in the past, but there use to be a "Flu season". It would start in the new year, if I recall, and last into April and May. I am sure there were a few exceptions, but that is how it tended to work. I imagine someone might know why, and many will guess at the difference with this virus now, but that was how the regular flu use to bear its teeth. Maybe that will happen again, where the summer will bring some very helpful defense to what is starting to be a pretty good response in itself. I wouldn't bet your life on it, but there are a lot of scenarios. If that is the case Q4 will be wonderful economically from all the pent up demand, and the stock market will start to figure that out, I suspect in and around April, May at the latest.

So my suggestion is that any market timing should have been done in December and January. Starting your race now, 20% behind the starting line seems like bad odds to me when you consider that this race is always uphill, in the dark, with lots of obstacles on the track.


----------



## sags

Current leaders of all political parties inherited this gigantic mess because of inaction and poor priority selection by past governments.

We have 1 COV19 case in our city and that person is recovering at home. Yet our local hospital has a 12 hour wait time to see a doctor in emergency.

What would happen if patients begin showing up in hospitals with COV19 and require an ICU bed that isn't available ? What if 10 people show up ?

Just before the COV19 started to take hold, our hospitals were in the process of closing more beds due to budget constraints.

Past governments have favored tax cuts instead of increased spending on health care and the folly of those decisions is becoming evident.

Perhaps some good will come from the COV19 and governments will realize they can't wait until there is a pandemic to upgrade the health system.

Anyone who says it isn't a political matter are wrong. Not having enough healthcare resources IS a political matter. It is politicians who decide where to spend the money.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Anything is possible though. I couldn't believe the market rebound on Friday based on nothing but bad news.


I'm often confused at market prices. But from now on, if I'm ever scratching my head and wondering why the market is crazy all the time, I only have to look at the people lining up at Costco with carts full of toilet paper and it gives insight into why the stock market acts like it does.

ltr


----------



## sags

Yup.......people are crowded into the airport at Fort Lauderdale, Florida trying to get out.......while in Clearwater, Florida people are lining up to get in the bars.

The difference ? Old people in the airport. Young people in the lineups at the bar.


----------



## sags

Stores are closing in the US. Others are reducing hours. Maybe stocking up isn't such a bad idea, but they will need more than toilet paper.

We are well stocked but I told my wife to buy powdered milk and eggs. She said I was nuts, but I pointed out that we may run out of bread but she can make biscuits with flour if she has milk and eggs. We also have a lot of boxes of cold cereal that aren't much good without milk. I will keep working on her by praising her emergency baking skills.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Maybe stocking up isn't such a bad idea, but they will need more than toilet paper.


I will put it this way. If everyone could stay away from everyone for the next 4 weeks, this virus would be dead, and in the history books. 14 days of food does not allow a person to do that.

Obviously you cannot stay away from your family but whether your family has the virus now or not, your danger to society will still be over in 4 weeks...if you just stop breathing other people's air, and only breathe your family's air in your family's home.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> I will put it this way. If everyone could stay away from everyone for the next 4 weeks, this virus would be dead, and in the history books. 14 days of food does not allow a person to do that.
> 
> Obviously you cannot stay away from your family but whether your family has the virus now or not, your danger to society will still be over in 4 weeks...if you just stop breathing other people's air, and only breathe your family's air in your family's home.


If everyone could stay away for 6-14 days (symptom free) it would likely be slowed down.
The issue is the asymptomatic spreaders.

There is a reason some are suggesting an 8 week school shutdown is a good idea.
Kids are excellent spreaders of this virus, they touch lots, and tend to be less symptomatic, also it doesn't seem to kill many of them.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Yup.......people are crowded into the airport at Fort Lauderdale, Florida trying to get out.......while in Clearwater, Florida people are lining up to get in the bars.


The spread happens weeks before the numbers and panic. Some of those boomers are infected and will only infect more at the airports and on the planes en route. The snowbirds are about to bring corona it to Canada in force.

The number of infected outside China is about to blow past total Chinese cases and at a steeper rate. When I brought it up in Jan one of my americans colleagues said "Yea but I heard Asians don't practice the same personal hygiene"


----------



## OptsyEagle

Also, we have a bit of an issue in that the young probably feel pretty invincible, since the data shows they have the best probability of survival. This makes them big candidates to feel that they can go on with there life, over the next few weeks, like they did in the past.

If you happen to have any of those in your family, I strongly suggest you remind them that even if they survive, the older people in their lives may not, BECAUSE of this behaviour. I am talking about parents, grandparents, teachers, neighbours. Please convince them to think of others and think about staying in for a while.

We live in the best of times. If you are forced to stay in the house, for a month or so, you can keep in touch with all your friends on your computer and cell phone. We have facebook, facetime, CMF, we have email, texting. We have video games at home, we have netflix, I think my TV service provides over 200 channels. I can get movies on demand by pressing a button.

For the love of god and more importantly the love of the older people in your life, stop breathing other people's air. Your behaviour now can bring a serious and non-recovering disaster to an older person in your life that is not replacable. If you can do this for just a month, this virus will kill itself. Know your enemy. Know their weaknesses and use them against it. This is not rocket science.


----------



## sags

Young people aren't listening. They aren't following any protocols. Basically, a lot of them have no clue.

I was in a jam packed emergency department months ago, and a young female university student was sitting in a wheelchair with her ankle wrapped and raised up.

She was getting tired of waiting and went up to the window and said she had classes the next day and wanted to make an appointment for the next day.

The clerk looked at her kind of stunned and said........."this is an emergency department. We don't take appointments."

If this is how a university student thinks, I don't have a lot of faith of young adults understanding how their behavior may affect others.


----------



## m3s

Many will still have to work. Doctors, nurses, police, EMT, military, logistics, transportation (food! COVID tests!) etc. I still have to go to work but we have minimized those at work and maximized those who can work from home.

I'm avoiding any cash transactions (I can pay for gas and food with my phone, NFC contactless payments) The grocery store chaos is my biggest challenge at the moment - might try delivery or pickup if it's still available..


----------



## sags

Since we will never control all the viruses that could break out, we should be developing effective personal protective equipment.

It is impossible to entirely shut down the world, and personal protection is one of the pillars of defeating viruses.


----------



## Mukhang pera

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4&feature=youtu.be


----------



## OptsyEagle

Mukhang pera said:


> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4&feature=youtu.be


That is the best advice so far.


----------



## AltaRed

m3s said:


> The grocery store chaos is my biggest challenge at the moment - might try delivery or pickup if it's still available..


A lot of grocery stores are waiving costs for express pickup and home delivery. It is a win-win because it keeps infectious morons out of the store, stops hoarding, and helps protect employees stocking, In fact, it would be good if the likes of Superstore actually prevented shoppers from coming into the store and simply expand express curb pickup by orders of magnitude. 

Our family is embracing this in a big way:
- Avoids the inconsiderate in the aisles
- Avoids touching shopping carts
- Might even get scarce TP that is still on pallets in the back and not stocked on the floor


----------



## cainvest

AltaRed said:


> - Might even get scarce TP that is still on pallets in the back and not stocked on the floor


Or ....


----------



## m3s

AltaRed said:


> A lot of grocery stores are waiving costs for express pickup and home delivery. It is a win-win because it keeps infectious morons out of the store, stops hoarding, and helps protect employees stocking


Yea I should try the curb pick up service. All I want is some milk and fresh produce but the lines and parking is silly. Standing in line for hours between zombies is exactly what you don't want to do

amazon delivery is still reliable in the US (INCLUDING TP!) but "amazon Fresh" is not available where I am. There might be some other fresh deliveries services though


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Many will still have to work. Doctors, nurses, police, EMT, military, logistics, transportation (food! COVID tests!) etc. I still have to go to work but we have minimized those at work and maximized those who can work from home.
> 
> I'm avoiding any cash transactions (I can pay for gas and food with my phone, NFC contactless payments) The grocery store chaos is my biggest challenge at the moment - might try delivery or pickup if it's still available..


Local reports (London) is that the crazy is passing, and we have toilet paper at more stores.

I think the general advise of 72 hours at all times is a good idea.
Personally I only like to go shopping once per week, so I typically have 5-12 days on a normal basis.

Right now, if it looks busy, or looks like people are hostile, I'll leave and come back later.
I think a small stockpile so you can sit back for a few days or even weeks if things get crazy is a good idea.
I did my normal pickup on Thursday, instead of Friday just to avoid the crazy that came out for the weekend.

Think about it, if you go to the store, and everyone has enough for a week, how anxious and crazy do they get?
If you go and even a few people are pretty much out, how erratic are they.

As far as pickup, I've been using Walmart pickup for over a year, it's great.
I tried PC Express pickup, but you have to go in the store yourself, and our local store needs you to put money in the carts.

Also think about all the people who were going on March break, then had to at the last minute get food for the week, that caused a rush.
They also announced the school shutdown, so 3 weeks with your kids. If you have young kids, shopping with them is a pain, so of course they'd try to get as much of that 3 weeks as they could at once.

I don't think people are in general behaving erratically yet, but they are under pressure, and with the peak predicted for this summer, we're going to have months of problems.

Take it easy, be calm, but plan so you won't be in a bad situation.


----------



## Eder

Well its all good that Canadians will self isolate (including me) upon returning to Canada but it is pretty lol that tourists arriving in Calgary & going skiing, ice climbing and touring Lake Louise are pretty much business as usual . Maybe they self isolate 8 hours/day in their room at Chateau Lake Louise?


----------



## m3s

My state declared emergency on like Tuesday and I started to hear about grocery store craziness on like Friday.

I figure once the masses stocked up, and the stores have a chance to restock the shelves, should be a null in the storm this week

When I work nights or swings I get the grocery store to myself. Even get the same cashiers repeatedly on the same schedule


----------



## Longtimeago

Our government is now advising all Canadians to return home while they still CAN. There is a BIG message in that statement.

The day before yesterday there were a couple of posters on this forum talking about just leaving Canada and a couple of others who are currently in the USA saying they had no plans to head home yet. They may well find that when they do want to return, there will be no airlines flying anywhere. At that same time, their Medical Insurance is likely going to be running out and will not be renewable. Oops. 

Photos of the HUGE lines of people attempting to return to the USA and arriving at the 13 designated airports there yesterday, show what will happen here when we designate the limited number of airports that are going to be allowed to accept International arrivals. This step has been announced already but which airports and when has not yet been stated. I'm sure it will happen in the next few days.

All returning travellers are being asked to self-isolate as we know, the question is how many will and how many will ignore it, increasing the chances of spread of the infection. One of our neighbours is currently 'snowbirding' and knowing him (not her) as I do, to be a belligerent ahole at the best of times, I'm pretty sure he will ignore the request to self-isolate. So it is not just those on March Break returning we have to be concerned with it is also the snowbirds who traditionally start returning throughout April or who respond the to advice to return now while they still can.

I expect increasingly more drastic measures to be taken every few days in the next few weeks. We may well see our major cities in total lockdown as is happening now in other countries. The only place anyone should want to be is in their own home.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> Well its all good that Canadians will self isolate (including me) upon returning to Canada but it is pretty lol that tourists arriving in Calgary & going skiing, ice climbing and touring Lake Louise are pretty much business as usual . Maybe they self isolate 8 hours/day in their room at Chateau Lake Louise?


You raise a good point here Eder. If all returning Canadians are being asked to self-isolate for 2 weeks, then common sense would seem to say that ANYONE entering the country should have to self-isolate for the same reasons. So yes, what if a tourist is still coming into Canada, why are they not being told, 'you must self-isolate for 2 weeks or you cannot enter our country.' It seems to make no sense to ask one group to self-isolate but not another group.

By the way Eder, when are you planning to return and are you flying? If so, what makes you think your flight will still exist then?


----------



## Retired Peasant

MrMatt said:


> We're months out on the vaccine, and while they have made Coronavirus vaccines before


You have a source for that? I watched CTV's W5 last night. They interviewed Dr. Bruce Aylward, the doctor at the forefront of the WHO’s fight against the coronavirus.

When asked how soon could we have a vaccine, he said earliest 6-12 months; longest..never
…”we’ve never had a successful vaccine for a corona virus”

You can watch the whole interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lViaVZ_s8MY
The bit above was at 8:56 or so.

I was reading some articles this morning on the development of a vaccine. Although they can pick up some of the work done on SARS and MERS, they still have a lot of testing to do. There was even some talk of skipping/shortening the testing on animals - I sure hope they don't do that.


----------



## Longtimeago

Retired Peasant said:


> You have a source for that? I watched CTV's W5 last night. They interviewed Dr. Bruce Aylward, the doctor at the forefront of the WHO’s fight against the coronavirus.
> 
> When asked how soon could we have a vaccine, he said earliest 6-12 months; longest..never
> …”we’ve never had a successful vaccine for a corona virus”
> 
> You can watch the whole interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lViaVZ_s8MY
> The bit above was at 8:56 or so.
> 
> I was reading some articles this morning on the development of a vaccine. Although they can pick up some of the work done on SARS and MERS, they still have a lot of testing to do. There was even some talk of skipping/shortening the testing on animals - I sure hope they don't do that.


That is also how I understand it. A vaccine is not going to be available anytime soon unless some kind of a miracle happens. It is probably a year to 18 months away at best and yes, it could be never.


----------



## MrMatt

Retired Peasant said:


> You have a source for that? I watched CTV's W5 last night. They interviewed Dr. Bruce Aylward, the doctor at the forefront of the WHO’s fight against the coronavirus.
> 
> When asked how soon could we have a vaccine, he said earliest 6-12 months; longest..never
> …”we’ve never had a successful vaccine for a corona virus”
> 
> You can watch the whole interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lViaVZ_s8MY
> The bit above was at 8:56 or so.
> 
> I was reading some articles this morning on the development of a vaccine. Although they can pick up some of the work done on SARS and MERS, they still have a lot of testing to do. There was even some talk of skipping/shortening the testing on animals - I sure hope they don't do that.


"Instead, the SARS vaccine that Hotez’s team created in collaboration with scientists at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston is sitting in a freezer, no closer to commercial production than it was four years ago."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/scientists-were-close-to-a-sars-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago.html
https://www.discovermagazine.com/he...gap-measure-against-the-new-coronavirus-study

I knew there was a lot of development, didn't realize that they stopped before it was fully approved & put into production.


----------



## sags

No vaccine, no treatment, no cure.

We need real protection to protect us. We need proper masks to reduce exposure and the spread of the virus.

Problem.....China manufacturers the masks, prescription drugs and ventilators and they aren't sharing what they have in stock or producing more.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> No vaccine, no treatment, no cure.
> 
> We need real protection to protect us. We need proper masks to reduce exposure and the spread of the virus.
> 
> Problem.....China manufacturers the masks, prescription drugs and ventilators and they aren't sharing what they have in stock or producing more.


No vaccine yes.

Treatment, we have some and the treatments are getting better, there are some drugs that may be showing promise, but they're cautious on having a run on them until they know they work before they ramp up production.

Most countries are hoarding medical supplies.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...members-blocking-export-medical-supplies.html

Yeah, this is bad, it's going to get worse. 
Don't panic, but be prepared.


----------



## Userkare

Has anyone posted this simulation? It's a made-up virus with a simplistic spread model, but demonstrates the effectiveness of quarantine vs social distancing in flattening the curve.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Young people aren't listening. They aren't following any protocols. Basically, a lot of them have no clue.
> 
> I was in a jam packed emergency department months ago, and a young female university student was sitting in a wheelchair with her ankle wrapped and raised up.
> 
> She was getting tired of waiting and went up to the window and said she had classes the next day and wanted to make an appointment for the next day.
> 
> The clerk looked at her kind of stunned and said........."this is an emergency department. We don't take appointments."
> 
> If this is how a university student thinks, I don't have a lot of faith of young adults understanding how their behavior may affect others.


I don't think you should generalize about young people. Lots of clueless older people going about their daily lives as well.


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> Many will still have to work. Doctors, nurses, police, EMT, military, logistics, transportation (food! COVID tests!) etc. I still have to go to work but we have minimized those at work and maximized those who can work from home.
> 
> I'm avoiding any cash transactions (I can pay for gas and food with my phone, NFC contactless payments) The grocery store chaos is my biggest challenge at the moment - might try delivery or pickup if it's still available..


Grocery stores in Toronto are back to normal in terms of crowds. Shelf stocking will take another couple of days to catch up. Supply chains were not positioned to handle the panic buying. I know retailers were building inventory on staples but they can't move it to stores fast enough and stores can't get it on shelves fast enough. Egg graders in Ontario are completely overwhelmed, which is why you see no eggs on the shelves. I'm sure it is a similar situation with dairies. We can't make extra laying hens or dairy cows in a weekend. The only thing that will help this situation is all the people who hoarded these staples staying home and not buying more.


----------



## like_to_retire

andrewf said:


> I don't think you should generalize about young people. Lots of clueless older people going about their daily lives as well.


Yeah, but those older people have to actually take care of themselves. They understand what it takes to do so.

The younger people spend most of their time on their phones while living in their parent's basements.

ltr


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Since we will never control all the viruses that could break out, we should be developing effective personal protective equipment.
> 
> It is impossible to entirely shut down the world, and personal protection is one of the pillars of defeating viruses.


PPE is impractical for most people. Focus on handwashing and social distancing. PPE is applicable for those who need to interact with a lot of people or those who are likely infected.


----------



## andrewf

AltaRed said:


> A lot of grocery stores are waiving costs for express pickup and home delivery. It is a win-win because it keeps infectious morons out of the store, stops hoarding, and helps protect employees stocking, In fact, it would be good if the likes of Superstore actually prevented shoppers from coming into the store and simply expand express curb pickup by orders of magnitude.
> 
> Our family is embracing this in a big way:
> - Avoids the inconsiderate in the aisles
> - Avoids touching shopping carts
> - Might even get scarce TP that is still on pallets in the back and not stocked on the floor


You need a lot more staff to handle pickup orders than if they do the shopping themselves. They are struggling to get product on the shelves with the staff they have.

I suggest:
-Limit the number of people who go to the store (1 per family is enough)
-Offer to shop for people you know who are self-isolating 
-Limit your trips (once per week)
-Visit off-peak.


----------



## andrewf

Retired Peasant said:


> You have a source for that? I watched CTV's W5 last night. They interviewed Dr. Bruce Aylward, the doctor at the forefront of the WHO’s fight against the coronavirus.
> 
> When asked how soon could we have a vaccine, he said earliest 6-12 months; longest..never
> …”we’ve never had a successful vaccine for a corona virus”
> 
> You can watch the whole interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lViaVZ_s8MY
> The bit above was at 8:56 or so.
> 
> I was reading some articles this morning on the development of a vaccine. Although they can pick up some of the work done on SARS and MERS, they still have a lot of testing to do. There was even some talk of skipping/shortening the testing on animals - I sure hope they don't do that.


It's unlikely to skip early clinical trials for safety. It's one thing to be treating dangerously ill patients (trying retrovirals on serious COVID19 cases) but a vaccine will be used on millions of uninfected people. No way will that be done without rigorous safety testing.


----------



## jargey3000

...we're saved! trump just rattled off a list of names from that greatly-respected group: mega-company ceo's, that are apparently going to save us! wtf!
the poor lady doctor behind him seemed to have a look of DISBELIEF on her face the time he was babbling on!


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> PPE is impractical for most people. Focus on handwashing and social distancing. PPE is applicable for those who need to interact with a lot of people or those who are likely infected.


Is it really that impractical to wear PPE if it saves grandma? I believe this is just cultural. The general population has some innate need to look and act "normal"

It's just another day as a motorcyclist.. PPE is heavy, hot, uncomfortable, makes you feel "out of place" and expensive. We wear it because we all know friends who died thinking PPE was impractical

I'm already used to walking around with a buff on my face, gloves, jacket etc.. already used to acting different from the crowd and to be honest nobody cares.. at worst people ask stupid questions

Bonus you get lots of fresh air and it's hard to touch your face with helmet/gloves on



andrewf said:


> Egg graders in Ontario are completely overwhelmed, which is why you see no eggs on the shelves. I'm sure it is a similar situation with dairies. We can't make extra laying hens or dairy cows in a weekend. The only thing that will help this situation is all the people who hoarded these staples staying home and not buying more.


Wait why would you hoard eggs and dairy.. I suppose you could boil eggs but dairy expires.. those are probably going to expire and people will be rushing back to clear the shelves again

Sounds like it's worse than I thought. At least I have rice and beans


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Is it really that impractical to wear PPE if it saves grandma? I believe this is just cultural. The general population has some innate need to look and act "normal"
> 
> It's just another day as a motorcyclist.. PPE is heavy, hot, uncomfortable, makes you feel "out of place" and expensive. We wear it because we all know friends who died thinking PPE was impractical
> 
> I'm already used to walking around with a buff on my face, gloves, jacket etc.. already used to acting different from the crowd and to be honest nobody cares.. at worst people ask stupid questions
> 
> Bonus you get lots of fresh air and it's hard to touch your face with helmet/gloves on
> 
> 
> 
> Wait why would you hoard eggs and dairy.. I suppose you could boil eggs but dairy expires.. those are probably going to expire and people will be rushing back to clear the shelves again
> 
> Sounds like it's worse than I thought. At least I have rice and beans


Wear PPE if you go to see them.
But wearing it on an ongoing basis from when you leave your front door, until you get home, every single day?
That just isn't realistic.

There is a reason the military does training wearing chemical warfare suits, it really sucks trying to go through your "normal" routines in that stuff.


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> Is it really that impractical to wear PPE if it saves grandma? I believe this is just cultural. The general population has some innate need to look and act "normal"
> 
> It's just another day as a motorcyclist.. PPE is heavy, hot, uncomfortable, makes you feel "out of place" and expensive. We wear it because we all know friends who died thinking PPE was impractical
> 
> I'm already used to walking around with a buff on my face, gloves, jacket etc.. already used to acting different from the crowd and to be honest nobody cares.. at worst people ask stupid questions
> 
> Bonus you get lots of fresh air and it's hard to touch your face with helmet/gloves on


I see your point. My point is that PPE is going to be in short supply and should be reserved for people who actually need it. That is first and foremost health care workers and secondly service industry workers who deal with many people each day. If there was an endless supply then sure, maybe everyone should use it if it made them feel better.




> Wait why would you hoard eggs and dairy.. I suppose you could boil eggs but dairy expires.. those are probably going to expire and people will be rushing back to clear the shelves again
> 
> Sounds like it's worse than I thought. At least I have rice and beans


Eggs keep for over 30 days. I think a lot of people just bought several weeks of demand all at once. Milk can be frozen, but I expect a lot will be wasted or at least hopefully used in cooking.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Userkare said:


> Has anyone posted this simulation? It's a made-up virus with a simplistic spread model, but demonstrates the effectiveness of quarantine vs social distancing in flattening the curve.
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/


That is pretty cool. This technology we have to spread info so quickly is really awesome. Thanks for the post.


----------



## m3s

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Confirmed cases in Alaska, Hawaii, French Polynesia, Guam, Iceland

What's left? Greenland? Pitcairn? Diego Garcia?


----------



## sags

Antarctica is lovely this time of year.


----------



## sags

The whole world is shutting down. Historic moment here. Hope we survive to talk about it later.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The whole world is shutting down. Historic moment here. Hope we survive to talk about it later.


Well they just announced a testing center in London Ontario which will open Monday. The area population is around 400k

I'm pleased with the overall message and tone of the government.

For such a crazy situation, I think they are (at all levels) acting appropriately. I'm not expecting perfection. 
But they seem to be taking every prudent action, and they've already signaled that they are thinking about the next problems down the line.

I think ordinary Canadians have to trust that the government will pull out all the stops to keep basic necessities flowing.
Just netflix and chill while they figure out how to treat this.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Just netflix and chill while they figure out how to treat this.


One way or another the hospitals will be overwhelmed in 9 months


----------



## OptsyEagle

Getting much more optimistic.

Right now the issue is going viral and that is making everyone nervous. What those same people are missing is that many of us were nervous long ago, but we had two problems at that time. The smaller one was the virus, because it is a weak mindless piece of bio garbage that doesn't stand a chance against a intelligent, knowledgeable species working and fighting together against a common and understood foe. The bigger problem we had was that this so called intelligent species did not know we were in a fight, and was allowing this deadly enemy to sneak up on us from any and all directions. Now that big problem is over. Everyone is aware. It's about F'n time. Now we are only left with the small one. That problem will be annihilated by the end of this year, at the latest, probably sooner.


----------



## Eder

https://www.infobae.com/sociedad/20...qLWwZxROzd6jWcVELAmWNJjMQIt_X3WmM4QTO7HPhhDWk

60 minute test kit that cost $2 to make...will detect asymptomatic cases.


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> One way or another the hospitals will be overwhelmed in 9 months


Don't think it'll take 9 months but really depends on peoples (and gov) actions here. They could be overwhelmed in 1-3 months.

If it does take 9 months chances are they've succeeded in flattening the curve out.


----------



## sags

m3s said:


> One way or another the hospitals will be overwhelmed in 9 months


Yup.......they are opening the testing center in a different building because the emergency department is already swamped with other patients.

They also announced they have a shortage of custodians to clean the hospital. They contracted the work out a few years ago and the company can't keep workers.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Don't think it'll take 9 months but really depends on peoples (and gov) actions here. They could be overwhelmed in 1-3 months.
> 
> If it does take 9 months chances are they've succeeded in flattening the curve out.


Predictions are a global peak around July. for whatever insane reason the UK wants it to peak sooner rather than later.

I want this to be the flattest peak possible, ideally with a highly effective treatment.


----------



## andrewf

cainvest said:


> Don't think it'll take 9 months but really depends on peoples (and gov) actions here. They could be overwhelmed in 1-3 months.
> 
> If it does take 9 months chances are they've succeeded in flattening the curve out.


I think he means babies .


----------



## Plugging Along

andrewf said:


> I think he means babies .


These babies will be known as the Coronials


----------



## m3s




----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> I think he means babies .


Not sure how ... with covid-19 it'll be more like this for a while,


----------



## humble_pie

Plugging Along said:


> These babies will be known as the Coronials



funny each:

but yes the coronial generation. Species is threatened, reacts by multiplying more. I don't mean viruses.


----------



## nobleea

humble_pie said:


> funny each:
> 
> but yes the coronial generation. Species is threatened, reacts by multiplying more. I don't mean viruses.


It's not the deaths or the threatening of the species. It's the stress, anxiety, and sadness. A noticeable bump in births occurred in the US 9-12 months after 9/11.


----------



## humble_pie

nobleea said:


> It's not the deaths or the threatening of the species. It's the stress, anxiety, and sadness. A noticeable bump in births occurred in the US 9-12 months after 9/11.



really a question of semantics, no? high stress, anxiety & sadness on extremely broad scale = threat to species for some


----------



## Plugging Along

My province closed our school system today and they said indefinitely with mention of September as the earliest open date. Then my city followed suite declaring a full State of Local Emergency [SOLE) As inconvenient as it is, I am glad that they are taking it so seriously. Also having worked previous SOLE, I am so glad I live in the city that I do. I know how well they have handled emergencies in the past and already know how caring my city is.

There has already been several Facebook groups that are volunteering to help pick up and drop off things in self isolation and help those in need. I am super proud of my girls as they offered to babysit for free for those parents that are in essential services in my area. There have been many people including myself running around picking groceries, taking stuff out of own supplies and dropping off to those vulnerable and self isolating. 

I think this the time all people must do what they can to help flatten the curve. There was a person a Facebook that got pulled off an international flight due to physical symptoms , they dropped him at a hotel and told him to get clearance before he returns to his home city. He was going to take an Uber. We pointed him to our health link, and they will send someone to swab him.

I hope all are seeing what they can do to not spread the virus (stay at home) and if they can safely help.


----------



## Money172375

Heard from a source in government that a full shutdown in Ontario is likely this week...perhaps as early as Monday. Only grocery stores, gas stations and pharmacies to remain open. All other retailers to close down. School in Ontario also likely to be closed for longer than 2 weeks.


----------



## m3s

March 15.. Coronial Day?










Known cases outside Mainland China have crossed. Will it flatten or continue exponential as it hits Africa, India, SEA, SA?


----------



## Eder

nobleea said:


> It's not the deaths or the threatening of the species. It's the stress, anxiety, and sadness. A noticeable bump in births occurred in the US 9-12 months after 9/11.


Well i had sex today...anyone else? Course there won't be any more species produced.


----------



## Money172375

m3s said:


> March 15.. Coronial Day?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Known cases outside Mainland China have crossed. Will it flatten or continue exponential as it hits Africa, India, SEA, SA?


The worst could yet be Africa.


----------



## m3s

Eder said:


> Well i had sex today...anyone else? Course there won't be any more species produced.


What species did you have sex with? Wait don't answer


----------



## off.by.10

Money172375 said:


> The worst could yet be Africa.


I don't know, the worst of everything is usually Haiti.

More seriously, the population in Africa is much younger so it may actually not be that bad. Time will tell.


----------



## MrMatt

Watching the Ontario press conference. Doug is being very serious, he also being very supportive of everyone, including Freeland on how hard they're working.


----------



## jargey3000

MrMatt said:


> Watching the Ontario press conference. Doug is being very serious, he also being very supportive of everyone, including Freeland on how hard they're working.


is that trump's friend "Doug, from WalMart"....good lord!


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Watching the Ontario press conference. Doug is being very serious, he also being very supportive of everyone, including Freeland on how hard they're working.


I have noticed a little bit of non-partisan activity in the last few days. Or should I say a lot less of the complaining by opposition parties. Nice to see. That type of stuff helps nothing. Keep an eye out for it and make sure you remember any of it at the next election. 

This isn't a time for that. Today, we are not liberals or tories. We are not Canadian or Foreign. We are not black or white, male or female. We are not rich or poor. Today we are just humans on a planet called earth. We can whine about all the other stuff tomorrow.


----------



## humble_pie

Plugging Along said:


> My province closed our school system today and they said indefinitely with mention of September as the earliest open date. Then my city followed suite declaring a full State of Local Emergency [SOLE) As inconvenient as it is, I am glad that they are taking it so seriously. Also having worked previous SOLE, I am so glad I live in the city that I do. I know how well they have handled emergencies in the past and already know how caring my city is.
> 
> There has already been several Facebook groups that are volunteering to help pick up and drop off things in self isolation and help those in need. I am super proud of my girls as they offered to babysit for free for those parents that are in essential services in my area. There have been many people including myself running around picking groceries, taking stuff out of own supplies and dropping off to those vulnerable and self isolating.
> 
> I think this the time all people must do what they can to help flatten the curve. There was a person a Facebook that got pulled off an international flight due to physical symptoms , they dropped him at a hotel and told him to get clearance before he returns to his home city. He was going to take an Uber. We pointed him to our health link, and they will send someone to swab him.
> 
> I hope all are seeing what they can do to not spread the virus (stay at home) and if they can safely help.




i believe it was sags who first posted this saying in cmf forum - about looking for the helpers during a deep crisis - but here is journalist Andre Picard saying the same thing in the globe & mail:




> “When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, ‘Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.’ ”
> – Fred Rogers, aka Mr. Rogers​
> In these pandemic times, where each new headline is more frightening than the last, when life as we know it seems to be crumbling beneath our feet, when anxiety levels seem to be reaching Xanax-proof levels, we need a lot more Mr. Rogers.



Plugging you are a helper. Take care now girl. Embrasse bien tes jeunes filles adorables pour moi.


----------



## andrewf

I'm going to be donating blood shortly. I stopped donating a few months ago when I was sick for my appointment. The health care system is going to have a shortage of blood, so if anyone else is eligible to donate please consider doing so.


----------



## MrMatt

Watching the live stream, we just closed our borders to everyone but Canadian and US citizens.


----------



## Plugging Along

humble_pie said:


> i believe it was sags who first posted this saying in cmf forum - about looking for the helpers during a deep crisis - but here is journalist Andre Picard saying the same thing in the globe & mail:
> 
> 
> Plugging you are a helper. Take care now girl. Embrasse bien tes jeunes filles adorables pour moi.


Most definitely, my city has already started a facebook group so people can post requests for help, offers for help, information and resources. There are also resources to help those with anxiety. Unfortunately, there is a lot of bad information and people panicking. I have been taking time to provide the correct information so people don't just start walking around when they are supposed to be self isolating. Our mayor mentioned our group last night during the declaration of the SOLE. Then some person come on saying they were pulled off their international flight because they were showing symptoms. The person and his bags pulled off the plane and stuck in a hotel and told no flying until he gets a clear testing. The problem was no one told him what to do, and left him with out resources. He was debating on taking an uber to the emergency to get tested. The community managed to have him stay put (I hope) and give him the instructions to get someone out to swab him. 

I also realized that that many of the most vulnerable (seniors) do not use social media so all of my posts of offering help will not be seen. So I contacted my doctor today, and left her my number to put any senior that needs to self isolation in my community to call me. I am trying to figure out a better way to send out this information. 

There are some people really panicking right now, and their mental health is in rough shape. With my kids, I worried that they are worried as a lot of their friends and them have anxiety. The good news was my girls said that they know I have this covered for the family. 

I think this is time for people to step up in their communities and reach out and see how someone could need help. It could be a senior, a person with an immunio disorder, many are living paycheck to paycheck, The more we help them (in a safe isolated way) the less likely this will spread. 

Our city is motto is 'Clean hands, clear heads, and open hearts'. I am personally saying "I can spare a square'

Thanks for allowing me my soap box to remind people to help.


----------



## Longtimeago

OptsyEagle said:


> Getting much more optimistic.
> 
> Right now the issue is going viral and that is making everyone nervous. What those same people are missing is that many of us were nervous long ago, but we had two problems at that time. The smaller one was the virus, because it is a weak mindless piece of bio garbage that doesn't stand a chance against a intelligent, knowledgeable species working and fighting together against a common and understood foe. The bigger problem we had was that this so called intelligent species did not know we were in a fight, and was allowing this deadly enemy to sneak up on us from any and all directions. Now that big problem is over. Everyone is aware. It's about F'n time. Now we are only left with the small one. That problem will be annihilated by the end of this year, at the latest, probably sooner.


i wish it were true that everyone was aware. You would think they must be given the coverage but just yesterday a woman said to me, 'I hope it only lasts another 2-3 weeks.' She obviously had no clue if she could seriously (and she was being serious) make such a remark.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Longtimeago said:


> i wish it were true that everyone was aware. You would think they must be given the coverage but just yesterday a woman said to me, 'I hope it only lasts another 2-3 weeks.' She obviously had no clue if she could seriously (and she was being serious) make such a remark.


You have to admit though it is a lot better then it was a week ago. Magnitudes better.


----------



## sags

Things have slowed down a bit around here. I can see a 4 way stop out our front window. There are always cars at the stop. Today one comes along and then another 30 seconds later.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Trudeau never said if the open Roxham border will be closed. Does that mean it's still open and anyone can walk in?


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> Trudeau never said if the open Roxham border will be closed. Does that mean it's still open and anyone can walk in?


I'd say ask Rebel Media, but the Police are giving them parking tickets for watching the border.


----------



## Eder

A team of Australian researchers say they’ve found a cure for the novel coronavirus and hope to have patients enrolled in a nationwide trial by the end of the month.
Some patients who tested positive for coronavirus in Australia have already been treated with one of the drugs and “all did very, very well,” researchers say. 


https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...l/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5

Yippee!


----------



## Prairie Guy

MrMatt said:


> I'd say ask Rebel Media, but the Police are giving them parking tickets for watching the border.


Trudeau banned them from the press conference.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> I'd say ask Rebel Media, but the Police are giving them parking tickets for watching the border.


They are doing the Lord's work.


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> Trudeau banned them from the press conference.


The thing is most people dismiss them as **** disturbers.
But the reality is they're arguably the best journalists not on the government payroll. If you disagree, go ahead and list a Canadian media company not getting government funding.


----------



## jargey3000

Eder said:


> A team of Australian researchers say they’ve found a cure for the novel coronavirus and hope to have patients enrolled in a nationwide trial by the end of the month.
> Some patients who tested positive for coronavirus in Australia have already been treated with one of the drugs and “all did very, very well,” researchers say.
> 
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...l/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5
> 
> Yippee!


is there anything to this? or, are we likely to see a rash of these stories, from all over the world...?


----------



## MrMatt

jargey3000 said:


> is there anything to this? or, are we likely to see a rash of these stories, from all over the world...?


They've been talking about off label use of malaria drugs for a while.
It would be great, but then people would say it was all a HUGE overreaction.

The really sad thing is that if they finished SARS-CoV work, they'd be that much closer on SARS-CoV2


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Polish scientist makes possible breakthrough in Coronavirus treatment https://polandin.com/47135135/polish-scientist-makes-possible-breakthrough-for-coronavirus-treatment


----------



## Eder

jargey3000 said:


> is there anything to this? or, are we likely to see a rash of these stories, from all over the world...?


Well it is doctors themselves calling it a cure. Any way my wife takes Plaquinel (malaria drug) for her RA. She doesn't have corona so I guess it works.


----------



## newfoundlander61

https://www.thetelegram.com/news/local/colemans-announces-shopping-hour-for-seniors-disabled-and-immunocompromised-424844/


----------



## andrewf

No one should be hanging their hat on possible cures as a reason to lessen the seriousness of containment efforts now.


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> No one should be hanging their hat on possible cures as a reason to lessen the seriousness of containment efforts now.


For sure, every day I hear about a new "possible cure" or "in trials" or something like it. Until someone actually has a viable human solution, there is nothing. While you certainly can hope that sooner than later, with all the people working on it, something will work.


----------



## sags

Well this is just great.....

CBC News reports that 15,000 people attended a dental conference in Vancouver in early March have been told to self isolate immediately by B.C's Provincial Health Officer who said multiple cases of coronavirus have been traced to the event.

Truly staggering stupidity by medical professionals to attend a large conference in BC during a virus outbreak.

Will they be posting the names and cities of practice of the professionals in attendance ? Their patients may like to know they may have been exposed to the virus.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> They are doing the Lord's work.


You joke but the seriousness of Trudeau being allowed to ban accredited media from covering him should be alarming in a country with free speech.


----------



## sags

There simply isn't enough room at briefings for every wingnut claiming to be part of the media on the internet.

Andrew Scheer didn't allow them at Conservative press conferences as well.


----------



## sags

The Titanic was said to be unsinkable because it had walled off separate chambers in the hull. But we know the ship sank.......how ?

Basic physics doomed the ship. The steel walls in the hull didn't reach the ceiling. They left a gap at the top.

After the ship hit the iceberg, the water filled up the first chamber and then went over the top and filled up the second chamber and then went over the top and filled up the next one and next one and next one and next one, all the way to the front of the ship. That is when the physics came into play.

The ship's designer was on board and as soon as he was told what the initial damage was he told the Captain the ship was going to sink. The Captain and crew could barely believe him.

As the water filled up the hull, all the added weight of the water continually shifted forward until the bow started to go under the water.

Eventually the bow went down and the back of the ship rose high into the air. The strain broke the ship in half and it sank until it hit the bottom of the ocean.

These partial quarantines for the coronavirus are like the walls in the hull of the Titanic. They leave holes for the virus to spill out and spread and it will.

All it takes is one infected person having contact with other people who have contact with other people and it isn't long before it is out of control.

Thus far, governments have been playing catch up to the virus. The numbers of infected and deaths rise and another round of decisions are made......but they are always too late.

A week ago today there were 700 cases in the US. 5 days later on Friday there were 2200 cases. 3 days later there is 4495 cases. The infections doubled in 3 days.

Extrapolate those numbers out and Dr. Fauci may very well be right. If extreme measures are not done NOW hundreds of thousands will die, and maybe even more.

The US will do what it will do, but we have a chance in Canada to lock down before it is too late. Shut all borders down and only allow trade across. 

Have trade dropped at a border drop zone and have the truckers return back to the US. Nobody comes into Canada and moves around freely.

If everyone would quarantine......shelter in place for a few weeks the virus could be slowed down and lives would be saved. 

The question is if we will make the sacrifice to save ourselves.


----------



## cainvest

Looks like the stores around here are getting *mostly* back to normal now. Still empty or low on TP/bread and the new run is on for frozen veggies!

Interesting to see the different polices each store has.
- Costco, all wearing gloves, people wiping down cart handles on entry and a person handing out condiments for the food area.
- Walmart, all wearing gloves and staff continuously cleaning the checkouts.
- Co-op, Saw no gloves and no active cleaning.

I did see one Tim Hortons with people inside, the rest were empty.


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> Well this is just great.....
> 
> CBC News reports that 15,000 people attended a dental conference in Vancouver in early March have been told to self isolate immediately by B.C's Provincial Health Officer who said multiple cases of coronavirus have been traced to the event.
> 
> Truly staggering stupidity by medical professionals to attend a large conference in BC during a virus outbreak.
> 
> Will they be posting the names and cities of practice of the professionals in attendance ? Their patients may like to know they may have been exposed to the virus.


Crazy... and our provincial health authority is saying they're not even going to test the majority people who report symptoms. That's directly against the advice of the WHO, which is to test EVERY symptomatic patient. 


https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/...-19-cases-warn-against-panic-buying-1.4853308

"The provincial health officer stressed that not everyone who has symptoms or has returned from travel abroad needs to be tested for COVID-19. She said provincial health officials are focused on testing those most at risk, including people who have been in contact with ongoing outbreaks and elderly people who are showing symptoms.

"For most people, you do not need a test," Henry said. "And we want to make sure that testing is available for all who do need it."

Health care workers and people who are in hospital or long-term care homes are another focus for the provincial testing regimen, she said.

"For everybody else, even if you have mild symptoms or you have no symptoms and you've returned from travel, you don't need testing," Henry said."


----------



## nathan79

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/urges-countries-test-test-test-fight-coronavirus-12406674/

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu said: ‘We have a simple message for all countries: test test test. Test every suspected Covid-19 case. ‘If they test positive, isolate them and find out who they have been in close contact with up to two days before they developed symptoms and test those people too. ‘You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected.’


----------



## humble_pie

sags said:


> Well this is just great.....
> 
> CBC News reports that 15,000 people attended a dental conference in Vancouver in early March have been told to self isolate immediately by B.C's Provincial Health Officer who said multiple cases of coronavirus have been traced to the event.
> 
> Truly staggering stupidity by medical professionals to attend a large conference in BC during a virus outbreak.
> 
> Will they be posting the names and cities of practice of the professionals in attendance ? Their patients may like to know they may have been exposed to the virus.



i've been thinking about dentists for a while since i'm due for a specialized treatment which i've been postponing due to concerns about dentists with their exposures to dozens of patients every day, then breathing all over my face during the oral surgery. Something to avoid whenever possible.

i certainly like my dentist, whom i've known for more than 20 years. He's in his late 60s but stlll practising as well as ever. I haven't called his office but i find myself wishing/hoping that he'd close the practice for a few months, or else limit it to dire emergencies, untl the COV 19 contagion gets under control.


----------



## Eder

Korea has shown that massive testing is a better solution than relying on mass quarantines. They went from initial cases to declining and control in 4 weeks.


----------



## m3s

nathan79 said:


> Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu said: ‘We have a simple message for all countries: test test test. Test every suspected Covid-19 case. ‘If they test positive, isolate them and find out who they have been in close contact with up to two days before they developed symptoms and test those people too. ‘You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected.’


That would have been a good start several weeks ago before community spread

CBSA agent at YYZ has just tested positive. Can you imagine how many people a CBSA agent at YYZ was in close contact with? If they isolate even all the coworkers in close contact how do you conduct customs at the busiest airport in the country?

Pandora is out of the box




Eder said:


> Korea has shown that massive testing is a better solution than relying on mass quarantines.


Their results also came in hours via smartphone rather than days. Making the test fast and convenient probably meant those infected were able to isolate many days earlier. In the US you had to go to ER and even then they would only test critical or travelers


----------



## MrMatt

nathan79 said:


> Crazy... and our provincial health authority is saying they're not even going to test the majority people who report symptoms. That's directly against the advice of the WHO, which is to test EVERY symptomatic patient.
> 
> 
> https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/...-19-cases-warn-against-panic-buying-1.4853308
> 
> "The provincial health officer stressed that not everyone who has symptoms or has returned from travel abroad needs to be tested for COVID-19. She said provincial health officials are focused on testing those most at risk, including people who have been in contact with ongoing outbreaks and elderly people who are showing symptoms.
> 
> "For most people, you do not need a test," Henry said. "And we want to make sure that testing is available for all who do need it."
> 
> Health care workers and people who are in hospital or long-term care homes are another focus for the provincial testing regimen, she said.
> 
> "For everybody else, even if you have mild symptoms or you have no symptoms and you've returned from travel, you don't need testing," Henry said."


We don't have the test capacity yet.
Ontario is setting up many testing centers to get people away from hospitals, unfortunately they're overloaded right now.

It's coming.


----------



## sags

They locked down the retirement home my wife works at. Picked her up yesterday and an old guy comes out and heads down the sidewalk for a walk.

My wife said the doors are locked but somehow the residents are learning the pass codes. They have to keep changing them to keep the residents in and the families out.

If it continues, some of the employees are going to quit. They are already working short staffed and have additional cleaning to do. They all have families too.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> They locked down the retirement home my wife works at. Picked her up yesterday and an old guy comes out and heads down the sidewalk for a walk.
> 
> My wife said the doors are locked but somehow the residents are learning the pass codes. They have to keep changing them to keep the residents in and the families out.
> 
> If it continues, some of the employees are going to quit. They are already working short staffed and have additional cleaning to do. They all have families too.


Somehow?
Keeping people locked in buildings with no access outside is inhumane. 

Prisons and animal shelters have secured outdoor areas, and regulations that ensure each individual gets some time outside. 
I'd hope that the elderly get treated at least as well as a convicted murdered or unwanted pet. 

I don't blame them at all for wanting to get a few minutes outside. Part of their procedures should include some outdoor time,.


----------



## sags

A national lock down in the US is coming. Voluntary "social distancing" has too many holes in it to stop the spread of the virus.

The US Surgeon General has come forward and challenged the Trump administration to do what is necessary. 

_"We have the same number of cases that Italy had two weeks ago. We have a choice to make," US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said. "Do we want to really lean into social distancing and mitigation strategies and flatten the curve or do we just want to keep going on with business as usual and end up being Italy?"_


----------



## sags

Our city has a drive up assessment center set up in a hockey arena parking lot. Although there will not be COV19 testing at the site, people who aren't feeling well can get assessed 

https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/londons-new-coronavirus-assessment-centre-draws-crowd


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> No one should be hanging their hat on possible cures as a reason to lessen the seriousness of containment efforts now.


Agreed. It will just give people more they can use to self-justify bad decisions. The ONLY health expert I have trust in and listen to is our own Dr. Tam, our Chief Medical Officer. If a 'cure' is found, she will tell us. Does anyone imagine she isn't aware of all these reports of cures or soon to be available vaccines, etc.


----------



## Longtimeago

Prairie Guy said:


> You joke but the seriousness of Trudeau being allowed to ban accredited media from covering him should be alarming in a country with free speech.


What is it with your inability to focus on a topic and leave your silly little political rants out of it. You contribute NOTHING of value Prairie Guy as far as I am concerned.


----------



## Longtimeago

nathan79 said:


> https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/urges-countries-test-test-test-fight-coronavirus-12406674/
> 
> Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu said: ‘We have a simple message for all countries: test test test. Test every suspected Covid-19 case. ‘If they test positive, isolate them and find out who they have been in close contact with up to two days before they developed symptoms and test those people too. ‘You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected.’


Absolutely corrrect nathan79. However, the reality is that as the number of cases ramps up, the number of test kits remains limited. So there is a point at which you have no choice but to limit who you test. That is the situation being faced. It's fine to say test everyone with symptoms but saying to do it does not make it possible to do it. Dr. Tam has told us however that they are working on using other available swab kits that exist, to remove this bottleneck. So the intent is to get back to testing all with symptoms but at present that just isn't possible. 

You cannot expect to 'test everyone' unless you have enough tests to do so, that's the bottom line.


----------



## Longtimeago

Ontario is now under a State of Emergency. https://london.ctvnews.ca/this-is-n...res-a-state-of-emergency-in-ontario-1.4856078

All non-emergency dental services in BC and Ontario are now suspended. I don't know whether other provinces have done so yet. We had a call from our dentist's office yesterday cancelling our routine appointments.

Personally, my wife and I have now even cancelled our hair cutting appointments which we had for this coming Thursday and Friday. Each of us needs to be practicing 'social distancing' as much as possible and staying in our homes as much as possible.

We are also fortunate in that our small local supermarket already does home delivery for seniors ($3 charge) and has said they will continue to do that as long as they are able to do so while expanding it to include anyone who is self-isolating for Covid-19. 

As of today, we plan to hunker down in our home, going out only for a walk or drive to get some fresh air. We also intend to start work in our garden as a way to get 'outside'. But we will be trying not to go indoors anywhere else if we can possibly avoid it. Some may think that is over-reacting, I simply consider it prudent and what I can guarantee those in our town, is that NO ONE is going to catch the virus from us.


----------



## dave2012

We called our dentists office to cancel an upcoming appointment. They were already closing. I'm sure its the same everywhere now.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Somehow?
> *Keeping people locked in buildings with no access outside is inhumane. *
> 
> Prisons and animal shelters have secured outdoor areas, and regulations that ensure each individual gets some time outside.
> *I'd hope that the elderly get treated at least as well as a convicted murdered or unwanted pet. *
> 
> I don't blame them at all for wanting to get a few minutes outside. *Part of their procedures should include some outdoor time,*.


 ...+1. I wonder if management there is even working ... performance gets more dismal at the worst of times. 

Can't they simply allocate / allow an hour of daylight / fresh-air in the "backyard" (aka outdoor vicinity, if they have one) for a few residents (with social distancing) at a time? Or are those residents locked inside their room? How do they get meals in the meantime?


----------



## Beaver101

dave2012 said:


> We called our dentists office to cancel an upcoming appointment. They were already closing. I'm sure its the same everywhere now.


 ... I'm just waiting for my cancellation or rescheduling (in April though). Just common sense here.


----------



## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> ...+1. I wonder if management there is even working ... performance gets more dismal at the worst of times.
> 
> Can't they simply allocate / allow an hour of daylight / fresh-air in the "backyard" (aka outdoor vicinity, if they have one) for a few residents (with social distancing) at a time? Or are those residents locked inside their room? How do they get meals in the meantime?


Seemingly simple answers do not work in all circumstances Beaver101. While I agree people who are CAPABLE of going outside should be able to do so, seniors homes come in all shapes and sizes. Not all will have an area in which those going for some fresh air can be confined. And I do mean 'confined'. If allowed to just get out and go for a stroll around the block, some would probably do so and then RISK bringing back to virus into a dense environment of HIGHLY at risk people.

People are still insisting they should be allowed to enter and visit parents, without thinking that they bring RISK in with them when they do so and not just risk to their own parents but risk to all the residents of that seniors home. 

Seniors residences are a special case in regard to this virus, keep that in mind. What sags said in regard to the home his wife works in is that, 'an old guy comes out and heads down the sidewalk for a walk'. They are trying to keep residents in and visitors out for the safety of the residents, not to punish them.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Beaver101 said:


> ... I'm just waiting for my cancellation or rescheduling (in April though). Just common sense here.


Can someone explain to me the magic of April? Everything now seems to be geared to that. Governments at all levels announcing that we'll close, suspend, cancel, postpone, this that and the other thing until April 14, or thereabouts. Is the virus expected to be but a distant memory by then? Or is the reference to short timeframes of inconvenience just a sop to the masses, who perhaps cannot withstand too much bad news all at once, so we tell them in March that things will be better in April; then in April we tell them things will be better in May and, via baby steps, in the fullness of time we shall have succeeded in keeping them down on the farm for the 2 years or so we knew would be needed from the start?


----------



## Beaver101

^ The Easter Bunny in April? 

Seriously, my app't is scheduled for April but since March appointments are/will be cancelled, then I would assume there'll be a backlog of rescheduling to "exactly when?", IDK. 

Just keep fingers cross this pandemic dies off when the weather-warm-up theory start working ... o/w we'll be looking at DoomsDay.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Mukhang pera said:


> Can someone explain to me the magic of April? Everything now seems to be geared to that. Governments at all levels announcing that we'll close, suspend, cancel, postpone, this that and the other thing until April 14, or thereabouts. Is the virus expected to be but a distant memory by then? Or is the reference to short timeframes of inconvenience just a sop to the masses, who perhaps cannot withstand too much bad news all at once, so we tell them in March that things will be better in April; then in April we tell them things will be better in May and, via baby steps, in the fullness of time we shall have succeeded in keeping them down on the farm for the 2 years or so we knew would be needed from the start?


They will just reassess it then, but of course, we are in for a while. If they told everyone we are in till Christmas, many and probably all of us do not have provisions for that long. The last thing they want is us all to go out to deal with that, on the same day, which would be the day they told us about it. By April our food stocks, our health care system and perhaps some other stuff, will be improved a little or a lot from what they are now. Also, they can come up with a plan to alternate when we go out. So, for example, people born between 1950 to 1955 can go out Tues. 1956 to 1960 can go out Wednesday.

I am sure they will come out with something better, but for now, stay in. Don't breathe other peoples air. That is our best plan...right now.


----------



## Mukhang pera

OptsyEagle said:


> They will just reassess it then, but of course, we are in for a while.


Well, that was my guess. I am sure no one knows just what will be the prevailing situation in April. But conspicuous by its absence in all of these edicts about "that's the way it's gonna' be until April" is the word that "we shall reassess at that time". So yes, as you suggest, it's maybe a subterfuge so we won't "all go out to deal with that" all-too-likely prospect that things will by then be worse and not better. 



OptsyEagle said:


> Don't breathe other peoples air.


On that note, would it be too much to ask the rest of you to kindly get off of my planet? Go find your own.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Longtimeago said:


> What is it with your inability to focus on a topic and leave your silly little political rants out of it. You contribute NOTHING of value Prairie Guy as far as I am concerned.


So, you also agree that Trudeau should be allowed to ban accredited media from reporting on him? Perhaps not being allowed to ask Coronavirus questions that the "approved" media won't ask?


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> Can someone explain to me the magic of April? Everything now seems to be geared to that. Governments at all levels announcing that we'll close, suspend, cancel, postpone, this that and the other thing until April 14, or thereabouts. Is the virus expected to be but a distant memory by then? Or is the reference to short timeframes of inconvenience just a sop to the masses, who perhaps cannot withstand too much bad news all at once, so we tell them in March that things will be better in April; then in April we tell them things will be better in May and, via baby steps, in the fullness of time we shall have succeeded in keeping them down on the farm for the 2 years or so we knew would be needed from the start?


I don't think there is any doubt that they are doling out dates to keep people from thinking too much beyond those dates. People are people and the truth is, most can't handle a big dose of truth all in one bite, so they are sticking to 'bite size' amounts. If told, this is going to be going on for months and months, I think a good many people would not be able to handle that thought and really would panic.

As I said in an earlier comment I had a woman say to me a couple of days ago, 'I hope this is all over in 2 or 3 weeks' and she was quite serious when she said it. Clearly, she does not grasp the situation or perhaps just subconsciously does not WANT to have to think beyond that point.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> Clearly, she does not grasp the situation or perhaps just subconsciously does not WANT to have to think beyond that point.


That's me too. Too much to think about! My worry beads are darn near worn out. Soon I'll adopt the stress reliever employer by Humphrey Bogart, who fiddled with ball bearings when he played Captain Queeg. That should help. Ball bearings might last long enough.


----------



## sags

The courthouse in our city was closed due an employee testing positive for COV19. 

They haven't revealed where the employee worked so thousands of people are left wondering if they were exposed.

The first death announced in Ontario. The patient was a 70 year old man who passed away in Barrie. He never tested positive for COV19, which isn't good news.


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> Longtimeago said:
> 
> 
> 
> What is it with your inability to focus on a topic and leave your silly little political rants out of it. You contribute NOTHING of value Prairie Guy as far as I am concerned.
> 
> 
> 
> So, you also agree that Trudeau should be allowed to ban accredited media from reporting on him? Perhaps not being allowed to ask Coronavirus questions that the "approved" media won't ask?
Click to expand...

We are giving incredible power to the government. Accountability is even more important than ever.

I personally think Trudeau is an idiot, I am part of the 2/3rd majority that voted against him. 

But him and his team are in charge, and considering the impossible situation I think they are doing a good job. 
But we still have an obligation to watch and hold him accountable for the decisions he makes. 

Kinds like trust, but verify.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> The courthouse in our city was closed due an employee testing positive for COV19.
> 
> They haven't revealed where the employee worked so thousands of people are left wondering if they were exposed.
> 
> The first death announced in Ontario. The patient was a 70 year old man who passed away in Barrie. He never tested positive for COV19, which isn't good news.


Huh, if he never tested positive then how did they know to say he died from it? Makes no sense sags, have you left something out?


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> Huh, if he never tested positive then how did they know to say he died from it?


Maybe because he was killed in a rush to buy toilet paper. So it's regarded as a COVID-19-related death.

On the other hand, maybe what's left out is that he tested positive post mortem.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

In South Korea the number of new Coronavirus cases is already dropping and has been for 2 weeks. Their secret is an aggressive program of testing and quarantining infected persons. More details here - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success


----------



## MrMatt

Harsh quarantines and lots of testing helps.


----------



## sags

Longtimeago said:


> Huh, if he never tested positive then how did they know to say he died from it? Makes no sense sags, have you left something out?


As MP said........he tested positive after he died.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Things are getting a lot better. 

If you put aside a rising infection rate and a rising death rate and a total stop on economic activity, for one minute, and look at what we are doing, it is nothing short of amazing. Less then a week ago, the majority of people were not alert to this thing at all. They were the risk. Even J4B went to Cuba, one week ago. I think he wanted to reduce his stress. How do you think that worked out for him.

Anyway, everyone is on full alert. Everyone is social distancing. Companies are ramping up the production of respirators and other necessary equipment. As soon as any positive treatment is found to reduce the death rate, it is immediately transmitted around the world to the necessary professionals, almost instantly. More nurses are being trained, as we speak. Testing drive thru's are popping up everywhere. People are hearing the message all around the world.

This is how it will go down. The infections will rise rapidly over the next few weeks. It will be mind numbing and scary, but with social distancing and a motivated response we will process through those. As we do, some will die, most will not. Those who survive will be immune. They will start to pick up the slack in the other areas of the economy that will start to fall short, allowing more non-immune to stay indoors. Those areas would be ensuring our food supply, our infrastucture, etc., and this will start to drive the newly infected curve into a downward direction. Eventually, and I predict no later then Christmas, the concern over this virus will be in the history books.

You can see it happening before your eyes. It's amazing to watch. I would rather have avoided it but it is still quite the wonder to experience.


----------



## Userkare

I was dreading going shopping today; expecting season 1 of The Walking Dead, but I survived O.K.

Costco, in the Ottawa burbs, was quite orderly, and not too crowded. Employees were cleaning off the carts as they were rounding them up; but I brought some 90% alcohol in a spray pump & rags to do it outselves, also a small bottle of Purell in the pocket - taking no chances. There were employees in front of the T.P. making sure that nobody took too many; looked like limit 2, but we didn't need any. No free food handouts, and the whole 'restaurant' section was gone. There was no chicken of any kind to be had, but lots of bread, milk, and eggs; no unsalted butter. I only saw one kid in the place; usually there are a few snot-bubble nosed kids touching everything. I did see a middle aged woman rub under her nose with her bare hand, pick up a bag of bagels, then put it back. Stupid FN people! Lots of Asians wearing surgical masks, and even one guy with nitrile gloves. Don't know what's up with that. ???

From there we went to our local Independent PC store; it was also orderly, but lots of bare shelves. No pork 'n' beans and no T.P. ?? 

Our dentist phoned my wife to postpone her appointment from later this week to April. I was supposed to go in Thursday for a post-surgery follow up at the hospital clinic. I got a call to say not to come, but be available at that time, and the surgeon will phone me; don't know how that's gonna work if he can't actually see me.

So, it looks like around here at least, all but a few people are following the advice of the medical experts and gov't. to keep the social distancing, and shops to do their part to eliminate crowds.


----------



## m3s

OptsyEagle said:


> Eventually, and I predict no later then Christmas, the concern over this virus will be in the history books.


I agree up to that point. At best it eventually becomes yet another disease you develop immunization for as a child either deliberately by vaccination or naturally from getting the mild sickness when your immune system is young and healthy. No way this happens by Christmas..

The point of social distancing is to flatten the curve so that everyone doesn't overwhelm the hospitals at once. Once the curve is on the downward slope we will ease social distancing and another smaller wave of infections will ripple through those that managed to avoid the first wave..


----------



## OptsyEagle

m3s said:


> I agree up to that point. At best it eventually becomes yet another disease you develop immunization for as a child either deliberately by vaccination or naturally from getting the mild sickness when your immune system is young and healthy. No way this happens by Christmas..
> 
> The point of social distancing is to flatten the curve so that everyone doesn't overwhelm the hospitals at once. Once the curve is on the downward slope we will ease social distancing and another smaller wave of infections will ripple through those that managed to avoid the first wave..


Who knows, you may be right but keep in mind, the virus keeps needing new meat. As more people either die or survive (most survive) they lose their meatiness, so to speak. If they come in contact with you, it don't matter, they won't transmit it to you. They create a sort of social distance in itself. That virus, if it keeps running into immuned people and missing many of the others, will simply kill itself. This has to happen. It is how it works.

I remember in College, I took some microbiology and we were talking about bio-warfare and the instructor said that even with the worse weaponized virus (maximum level of contagious and everyone who gets it dies) at least 30% of the world will survive. He said it was a proven mathematical law. We thought, that's crazy. Wouldn't everyone get it, and if so wouldn't everyone die? This instructor showed us mathematically how the virus, by killing its populations of hosts so effectively, it basically kills itself and because of that many people simply never get it, because the people who could give it to them can't. In our case, it's because they survive and become immune, but it works the same way.

Compared to the worst virus ever, this Covid-19 is a weak piece of bio-garbage, in comparison. We will be fine. Well almost all of us will be fine. I wish I could say all of us, but as you know, I can't.


----------



## m3s

OptsyEagle said:


> That virus, if it keeps running into immuned people and missing many of the others, will simply kill itself. This has to happen. It is how it works.
> 
> I remember in College, I took some microbiology and we were talking about bio-warfare and the instructor said that even with the worse weaponized virus (maximum level of contagious and everyone who gets it dies) at least 30% of the world will survive. He said it was a proven mathematical law. We thought, that's crazy. Wouldn't everyone get it, and if so wouldn't everyone die?


It doesn't kill itself off. We've nearly eradicated some but anti-vaxxers are doing their best to keep them alive

The waves just keep getting smaller until it becomes another childhood sickness. There's a list of childhood diseases that we either vaccinate children for or they get mild symptoms etc because their immune system is young and strong

People like to go from one extreme to the other for some reason. It's either a harmless flu or it's gonna kill everyone!! Science shows the worst/best case models are neither mass extinction nor that it's history by Christmas.

The threat to elderly goes far beyond the first wave though


----------



## OptsyEagle

My point is that a virus will either kill its host and consequently kill itself, or it will jump onto another host. If the potential people to jump to are either dead, immune or not around, that virus will die. 

As more of the population are immune and around, less of the others can be around. In other words if you are in a group of people who all are immune, you cannot contract it. That same group yesterday, that you might have been with were not immune, but now they are. You are so much safer.

If you have Cov-19 and you are with a group of people who are immune, you cannot transfer it to them. Yesterday you could but today you can't. That virus in you will either kill you and then die or your immune system will kill it.

Either way, the virus always dies.


----------



## bgc_fan

Mukhang pera said:


> Can someone explain to me the magic of April? Everything now seems to be geared to that. Governments at all levels announcing that we'll close, suspend, cancel, postpone, this that and the other thing until April 14, or thereabouts. Is the virus expected to be but a distant memory by then? Or is the reference to short timeframes of inconvenience just a sop to the masses, who perhaps cannot withstand too much bad news all at once, so we tell them in March that things will be better in April; then in April we tell them things will be better in May and, via baby steps, in the fullness of time we shall have succeeded in keeping them down on the farm for the 2 years or so we knew would be needed from the start?


I suspect it has more to do with incubation time, which is why 14 days is the "magic" number when we talking about self-isolation, which brings us to around April. I'm assuming that the expectation that everyone shutting down operations for the next 2 weeks will allow the virus to run its course assuming there aren't large new clusters and no new infections, if everyone keeps to themselves and maintains their social distance.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Who knows, you may be right but keep in mind, the virus keeps needing new meat. As more people either die or survive (most survive) they lose their meatiness, so to speak. If they come in contact with you, it don't matter, they won't transmit it to you. They create a sort of social distance in itself. That virus, if it keeps running into immuned people and missing many of the others, will simply kill itself. This has to happen. It is how it works.
> 
> I remember in College, I took some microbiology and we were talking about bio-warfare and the instructor said that even with the worse weaponized virus (maximum level of contagious and everyone who gets it dies) at least 30% of the world will survive. He said it was a proven mathematical law. We thought, that's crazy. Wouldn't everyone get it, and if so wouldn't everyone die? This instructor showed us mathematically how the virus, by killing its populations of hosts so effectively, it basically kills itself and because of that many people simply never get it, because the people who could give it to them can't. In our case, it's because they survive and become immune, but it works the same way.
> 
> Compared to the worst virus ever, this Covid-19 is a weak piece of bio-garbage, in comparison. We will be fine. Well almost all of us will be fine. I wish I could say all of us, but as you know, I can't.


You have to make assumptions.
Assume you have a highly contagious, highly lethal virus that spreads shorlty after infection, but you don't become symptomatic until a year after you are communicable. Such a virus could probably kill off the majority of the worlds population.

Look at the recovery rates, it is not very good. The only reason the Italian recovery rate isn't tooo scary is we know they missed a lot of cases.

South Korea found a lot of cases, and their recovery rate still isn't what I'd call good.
Even China, we'll see when the last few active cases wrap up, it looks like quite a few more people might not make it.


----------



## Retired Peasant

People from the cruise ship were quarantined at CFB Trenton 8 days ago (on Monday). The first case started getting symptoms on the flight home. The second case showed up on Wed. By Mar 15 there were 4 cases. Now there are 8. The first 4 I could understand as the delay in the onset of symptoms. But now an additional 4, more than a week after returning.

Given that these people are isolated from each other, it would seem that people can be more than a week with the virus, without symptoms. Either that or there was contamination within the group - unlikely given the setup there. It seems at least an opportunity to study it.


----------



## m3s

OptsyEagle said:


> As more of the population are immune and around, less of the others can be around. In other words if you are in a group of people who all are immune, you cannot contract it. That same group yesterday, that you might have been with were not immune, but now they are. You are so much safer.


If children aren't born with immunity though and you can't socially isolate them (good luck with that!) then the virus can just jump from child to child. We have failed to contain it so this cycle continues

I'm not an epidemiologist I'm just repeating what they are saying that this is the end game best case scenario. Until then it ripples in decreasing waves through adults who were never exposed to it as a child


----------



## sags

I would like to be optimistic but......

All the social distancing is a half gesture that leaves huge holes for the virus to continue spreading. 

The US increased 1,000 more people infected and 25 more deaths since I posted the numbers a couple hours ago.


----------



## m3s

Random shower thoughts

If humans can fight off these virus with a fever of 38-40c, and the viruses are still able to transmit in hot climates thanks to air conditioners..

Why don't we turn up the heat in the old age homes?


----------



## sags

We are going to have to try unproven drugs and hope for the best. 

Why can we not develop a better personal protection from the virus ?.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The US increased 1,000 more people infected and 25 more deaths since I posted the numbers a couple hours ago.


Looks like NY is the new epicenter in the US. It went from like 1000 to 1700 today. Maybe they started testing more

Apparently there are lineups outside of gun stores now in NY. They fear what comes when people lose their jobs


----------



## Userkare

m3s said:


> Random shower thoughts
> 
> If humans can fight off these virus with a fever of 38-40c, and the viruses are still able to transmit in hot climates thanks to air conditioners..
> 
> Why don't we turn up the heat in the old age homes?


If hot showers can kill the virus, then I'm golden! Oh wait, that came out sounding somehow wrong.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> As more of the population are immune and around, less of the others can be around. In other words if you are in a group of people who all are immune, you cannot contract it.


Unfortunately there is no hard info to back your immunity claim yet but there is obviously basis to it .... albeit for short term results.

Immunity durations change with every virus, some lasting a long time and others can last only months. Research on the SARS outbreak in 2007 showed people infected only remained immune for 2-3 years then they could get it again, just like those previously uninfected. Also if a slightly different strain comes around next year it could be the same thing all over again.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Looks like NY is the new epicenter in the US. It went from like 1000 to 1700 today. Maybe they started testing more
> 
> Apparently there are lineups outside of gun stores now in NY. They fear what comes when people lose their jobs


They started testing a LOT more, they had a press conference about it today.
When testing ramps up, confirmed cases will ramp up.


----------



## sags

At least the crisis got the Democrats and Republicans to agree give cash to all Americans.

The first shot of stimulus money (not monetary money) is a $1 Trillion dollar spend.

Canada is 1/10th the size. Should we spend $100 Billion in a first go round ?

Our debt situation is far better than the Americans, so we could probably spend $1 Trillion as well.

Give everyone a nice bit of cash. I calculate it would be about $30,000 per person over 18.


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> Random shower thoughts
> 
> If humans can fight off these virus with a fever of 38-40c, and the viruses are still able to transmit in hot climates thanks to air conditioners..


Could also try leeches and 1/10 scale acupuncture dolls?


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Why can we not develop a better personal protection from the virus ?.


Have you tried locking the door to your house? I don't think the virus is smart enough to defeat that!


----------



## sags

I am thinking that is a very short term solution for what could be a very long term problem.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> At least the crisis got the Democrats and Republicans to agree give cash to all Americans.
> 
> The first shot of stimulus money (not monetary money) is a $1 Trillion dollar spend.
> 
> Canada is 1/10th the size. Should we spend $100 Billion in a first go round ?
> 
> Our debt situation is far better than the Americans, so we could probably spend $1 Trillion as well.
> 
> Give everyone a nice bit of cash. I calculate it would be about $30,000 per person over 18.


$3k/family. 
They're projecting a $20B package for Canada, in addition to the $10B they are sent out to businesses, plus they've already got the EI thing running, though it is overloaded.
They're also pushing to support mortgages and ensure liquidity.

Throwing money at this isn't a good solution, it isn't a financial crisis, it's a an economic crisis in that we're stopped a HUGE amount of economic activity and we'll stop even more soon. 

I think the Canadian government is doing well, they're moving fast, and seem very comfortable changing policies as new information becomes available.

I was a bit disheartened to hear that there are reports the Feds aren't doing a great job at airports. Though I know of someone who just got back from a cruise over the weekend, and they got put on 2 weeks paid vacation when they walked in Monday morning.
It's a bit obnoxious, but I think a lot of companies are taking this seriously.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Listen, we can let our minds go wild and probably find holes in my theory if we want. That should not be hard because the last microB course I took was 36 years ago. I am just stating how these things tend to work. Even the most violent virus cannot kill all of us because as it does, it kills its own food supply and also puts more distance between its next. Every virus has that problem. Hopefully we can at least see that.

As for immunity for the survivors, that will be different from virus to virus, but hopefully we can all see that it was our immune response that saved our life. They don't have a pill. A respirator just buys you time for your immune system to kick in. There's no reason to assume your immune system stops once you feel better and leave the hospital or your bed at home.

My main fear with this virus was never the virus. It was the reactions of the humans around me to it. If they kept ignoring this threat which would inevitably give it more food and power, eventually it was guaranteed to get around to me. That I could not stop UNLESS the people around me responded. Responded intelligently and responded quickly. If they did not do that then my only hope was "survival rate upon infection". My odds were reasonable but if others could just wake up, especially politicians, my odds would improve dramatically. Now, everyone does NOT HAVE TO get it and hopefully survive. Some of us can actually avoid it. Not all our elderly and those not in perfect health, have to die. Isn't that good news?

That is why I am so much more optimistic right now. Just look around. The response is amazing. Sure mistakes will be made but they will pale to the mistake of ignoring this thing. So now all we have to do is kill a virus that always kills itself eventually. Can you understand what I am saying? We are not out of the woods, by a long shot, but we are so much further ahead this week then we were just last week. That is all I am saying. Good luck to everyone.


----------



## sags

Viruses don't necessarily die. Some go dormant and reactivate at a later date, like the herpes virus.

It is good that you are optimistic though. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

I gotta go watch Dr. Phil now.


----------



## nortel'd

Telling people to cough or sneeze into their elbow to prevent the spread of COVID-19 will come back to bite. 
I do not want to be that vertically challenged 5 foot 2er standing or sitting beside a coughing or sneezing 5 foot 10er. 

To protect me from the 5 foot 10er shoppers, I can be seen wearing a toque, safety glasses, and my equivalent properly sewed and fitted "homemade" N95 mask (found you tube videos and googled for required materials). Problem ...when made to talk and breath simultaneously, moisture can build up faster than the manufactured N95 masks. Mine are good for about 20 minutes and then need to be removed with care and replaced with a fresh one. I also never leave home without a bottle of hand sanitizer and a packet of 3 ply kleenex in my jacket pocket. Best to shop in silence and get it done in 15 minutes.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> Who knows, you may be right but keep in mind, the virus keeps needing new meat. As more people either die or survive (most survive) they lose their meatiness, so to speak. If they come in contact with you, it don't matter, they won't transmit it to you. They create a sort of social distance in itself. That virus, if it keeps running into immuned people and missing many of the others, will simply kill itself. This has to happen. It is how it works.
> 
> I remember in College, I took some microbiology and we were talking about bio-warfare and the instructor said that even with the worse weaponized virus (maximum level of contagious and everyone who gets it dies) at least 30% of the world will survive. He said it was a proven mathematical law. We thought, that's crazy. Wouldn't everyone get it, and if so wouldn't everyone die? This instructor showed us mathematically how the virus, by killing its populations of hosts so effectively, it basically kills itself and because of that many people simply never get it, because the people who could give it to them can't. In our case, it's because they survive and become immune, but it works the same way.
> 
> Compared to the worst virus ever, this Covid-19 is a weak piece of bio-garbage, in comparison. We will be fine. Well almost all of us will be fine. I wish I could say all of us, but as you know, I can't.


We really will need a vaccine or effective treatment, though. Apparently immunity/resistance to coronavirus is only temporary and fades over a few years. Hopefully we can really dampen the amount of the virus out there, because the more hosts there are, the more opportunity for it to mutate into something even nastier (more easily spread or more deadly).


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> At least the crisis got the Democrats and Republicans to agree give cash to all Americans.
> 
> The first shot of stimulus money (not monetary money) is a $1 Trillion dollar spend.
> 
> Canada is 1/10th the size. Should we spend $100 Billion in a first go round ?
> 
> Our debt situation is far better than the Americans, so we could probably spend $1 Trillion as well.
> 
> Give everyone a nice bit of cash. I calculate it would be about $30,000 per person over 18.


I think your math is wrong. $100B divided by ~30M is around $3k per head. No need to be handing out $30k per capita--that is crazy.


----------



## Userkare

I tried sticking a 9V battery in my mouth, but it just made my tongue sting.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Had you shelled out $600 for that battery, the results would have been much better.


----------



## sags

andrewf said:


> I think your math is wrong. $100B divided by ~30M is around $3k per head. No need to be handing out $30k per capita--that is crazy.


$1 Trillion divided by 30M. It is a tongue in cheek number of a $1 Trillion stimulus similar to the US.

It looks like Canada is planning to spend $20 billion which I don't think will have much of an impact beyond a week or so.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> andrewf said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think your math is wrong. $100B divided by ~30M is around $3k per head. No need to be handing out $30k per capita--that is crazy.
> 
> 
> 
> $1 Trillion divided by 30M. It is a tongue in cheek number of a $1 Trillion stimulus similar to the US.
> 
> It looks like Canada is planning to spend $20 billion which I don't think will have much of an impact beyond a week or so.
Click to expand...

It really matters how they split it up. 
If you add that to the EI, it will make quarantines much more financially survivable. 

These measures are trying to avoid the loss of somewhere around a million Canadian lives, a few billion dollars isn't that unreasonable.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Mukhang pera said:


> I took a look after your last mention of it. Google research turns up a lot of criticism of same. I too have enjoyed good health for a long time sans the protocol. Is your good health due to it, or would have been the same regardless? I probably won't rush out to spend $600 or whatever he wants to get my blood electrically supercharged. I can't prove it does not work, so I'll leave it at that. Just as I cannot prove the existence or non-existence of capital "G" God or a lot of other things. So I won't say you are wrong, just as I won't say those who hold religious beliefs are wrong. Maybe it works for you because you believe in it. Anyway, if you are happy with it, great. Maybe a host of CMFers will become converts.


This is one of those things where the only people who believe in it, are those who use it. The critics have not used it and don't know anything about it.
I didn't spend anywhere near that much. Built my own blood electrifier using standard electronic components and his FREE plans and instructions, for about $35 (the biggest expense was $7 for a plastic box). This device also makes silver colloid. I got the 99.999% pure silver electrodes from Colloidal Silver Master in Tofield Alberta for $32. Have been using the electrodes for 5 years and they show almost no wear, they will make hundreds of gallons of silver colloid. Then I bought a party strobe from Radio Shack, hopped it up with a bigger condenser and wired it to a coil of 14 gauge wire I wound myself on a VCR spool. Total cost, another $30 or $40. Have been using them for 5 years or so, mostly the magnetic pulser. When I feel a cold or sore throat coming on I zap my sinuses, throat, lungs, as necessary and the cold goes away in 10 minutes. If it comes back I do the same again the next day, sometimes 2 or 3 treatments are necessary but haven't had a cold or flu in years. One time when doing this I felt a tingle in a tooth that had been giving me trouble, after that, no more toothache. The tooth broke 2 years later due to decay. I should have taken a warning and had it looked at by a dentist. If I get a cut or scrape and it turns red and angry and doesn't want to heal I use the pulser and the redness and swelling quickly goes down and it heals up in a day or 2.

The last few days I got out the blood electrifier and have been using it an hour a day. I have to be careful as you should not use it after taking drugs and I take blood pressure medicine daily. So I use it before taking the drugs, or after they have a chance to wear off. That is, I take the pills in the morning and use the blood electrifier at night, or next morning before taking the next dose.

If you want to build your own I can furnish the components. Since there is no Radio Shack anymore, you have to send to China for them and they sell them in quantities of 10 - 20 - 50 or 100. So I have extra. The only part I don't have is the project box and possibly a circuit board. But I have extras left over of most of the other parts.

If you don't want to do that I know Russ Torlage at SOTA Products in Vancouver is good, as I bought a Bio Tuner from them. There are others selling parts and devices but can't say who is reliable and who is not.

The device itself will last for years and can be used many times, by many people. If you could cure Coronavirus for a $3 battery would you? It seems cheap enough to me but I can see that if you are skeptical it might seem a waste of money. All I can do is tell you that it works for me.


----------



## AltaRed

andrewf said:


> Where are the double blind studies to prove these claims?


LOL... Funny thing about that.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

andrewf said:


> Where are the double blind studies to prove these claims?


Nobody is going to spend $5 million to $50 million doing studies on something that cannot be patented or sold at a profit. It's just as well. If big pharma got a patent they could control it, and you would have to go to a doctor and pay $3000 for treatment. As it is, the device is classed as a TENS device and is open source. Meaning no one can stop you from building or using one.


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Nobody is going to spend $5 million to $50 million doing studies on something that cannot be patented or sold at a profit. It's just as well. If big pharma got a patent they could control it, and you would have to go to a doctor and pay $3000 for treatment. As it is, the device is classed as a TENS device and is open source. Meaning no one can stop you from building or using one.


How much money you think Dr. Ho has made on selling those Tens units?


----------



## andrewf

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Nobody is going to spend $5 million to $50 million doing studies on something that cannot be patented or sold at a profit. It's just as well. If big pharma got a patent they could control it, and you would have to go to a doctor and pay $3000 for treatment. As it is, the device is classed as a TENS device and is open source. Meaning no one can stop you from building or using one.


A charity could? If it is true that this can cure HIV infection, etc., isn't it morally incumbent on people to demonstrate that this is safe/effective?


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Did any of you read the material I linked to?


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Did any of you read the material I linked to?


Skimmed over a few sections.

The only thing I see as a benefit is that anyone doing this must avoid ingesting alcohol, nicotine, recreational drugs and eating junk foods as it may cause issues. And while eliminating that list of items will likely make many people healthier alone, I didn't see anything else in that pdf that would.


----------



## james4beach

I'm back from Cuba... what did I miss?

(currently in self quarantine at home for next 14 days)


----------



## cainvest

not much james, very quiet here ... lol


And welcome back, hope the trip was stress relieving!


----------



## james4beach

The trip was great. Beautiful country, beautiful beach, amazing weather. I can't wait to go back. It was fantastic not looking at the internet or getting constant updates.

Watching the crash with limited data access really helpful. This worked well. I don't know where my own portfolio sits (clearly it is bad) but being disconnected like that was good. Not being able to see quotes or watch things in real time was good.

Things turned a bit terrifying in the last few days as all us Canadians suddenly realized we were at risk of getting stranded. I am eternally grateful to Sunwing who is currently, at great cost to themselves (and may bankrupt the airline) running empty planes from Canada down south... *these are purely rescue flights*... to bring Canadians home. I'm going to write a letter to my MP asking that the government provide financial assistance to Sunwing and similar operators especially as they are providing a vital service at the moment. I talked with one of the pilots on the return flight, and he will be laid off in a couple days. These crews are really putting their necks on the line and they are very anxious, worried about exposure, worried about how they will be jobless in a few days.

They (the Sunwing & similar crews) are heroes

Learning from the beach vacation, I'm going to enact a protocol at home where I set aside a limited time window each day for social media / internet news (perhaps limited to 1 hour, strictly limited) and same goes for TV. Perhaps no more than 30 minutes of TV news. It's important to stay up to date with what's going on, but too much of it is going to be psychologically harmful. I haven't worked out the protocol yet but this will be self imposed to manage psychological stress, and we know that stress ties in with your immune system. It is healthy to limit stress.

Quarantine doesn't mean I can't go walking outside, and I plan to keep doing outdoor walks (away from people of course) to also get out of the house and manage stress. I'm not looking forward to quarantine.

Seeing the market crash and then dealing with potentially being stranded in a foreign country taught me a little bit about crisis management as well. One must handle issues and challenges one at a time... tackle them based on priority. Yeah, I saw the market crash. I probably lost enough to make me cry. However, I had a bigger problem and this forced me to focus purely on that immediate problem. Though this sounds crazy, that helped. I set aside the market crash (I truly stopped caring about it) and financial disaster and focused on the problem of getting home.

The trip was also an interesting experience in balancing social networks & news (which are important in an emergency) with mental health (also important). What helped this was having very limited internet connectivity and limited TV, forcing me to use these sparingly. A certain amount of "news and updates" is right. Too much is really harmful. Too little is harmful too because you need to know certain things.

Thrilled to be home!


----------



## Danny

Welcome back. Glad you made it back ok


----------



## jargey3000

....bring back any Montecristo No. 2s???....Cohibas?


----------



## andrewf

james, glad to hear you made it back okay. But I have to say, what were you thinking leaving? I know so many people who were leaving on vacation last week, and i strongly questioned their decisions (at least to myself). Maybe due to the nature of my job and that I was working on contingency planning for almost 3 weeks now, seeing people joking about self isolating in Florida etc. was making me a bit angry. I know a couple who left for Panama on Friday, leaving their young child with grandparents. And those Sunwing crews were put at greater risk because so many people followed through with vacation plans when the government made it clear that this was getting serious.

Not meant to be an attack on you James, just venting my frustration with people who did not seem to be taking this crisis seriously.


----------



## sags

Canada and US are shutting down the border to all non-essential travel including tourists and visitors either way.

We just got 2 more infections in our city. They were people who traveled to Las Vegas and Saint Martin after the pandemic was well underway.

One was a healthcare worker who came back and was working in the hospital while sick and the other is a 44 year old assistant Crown attorney who was working in the courts.

The local health authority is trying to track down everyone they had contact with. It will be a long list and they may not even know the names of many.

We also have several high school trips with students in Europe. They knew about the pandemic, had meetings with parents and decided to go anyways.

These 2 examples show why the border should have been shut down weeks ago, and reveals the government is always trying to catch up to the virus.

They need to get well ahead of the crisis or we will have an outbreak we can't handle.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> james, glad to hear you made it back okay. But I have to say, what were you thinking leaving? . . . And those Sunwing crews were put at greater risk because so many people followed through with vacation plans when the government made it clear that this was getting serious.


I don't think you have the time line right.

At the time I left, there were NO cases in Manitoba (none in prairies at all) and NO cases in Cuba. The only cases in Canada at the time were a handful in Ontario and BC... it was not widespread. And Cuba certainly wasn't seen as a high risk area.

The government had absolutely no travel advisories or even warnings at the time I left. And yes I diligently did check all warnings, for both Cuba and Canada. There weren't any warnings or even hints from government that travel should be avoided.

The government instruction to avoid all but non essential travel, and then to come home, happened after I left on my trip. There was no reasonable way to know at the time I left that things would develop this quickly.

I ask you to keep in mind that hindsight is 20/20 and we make decisions based on the best information available to us at the time. I am a worrier and a germaphobe and if I thought there was a COVID-19 risk at the time I was leaving, I would not have gone. And if you think it was "obvious" at the time, just take another look at the stock market. Nobody knew how fast this would develop.


----------



## sags

Great........Westjet has announced there were COV19 infections on some flights. They have a list of flights and seat numbers affected.

Of course that only involves the Westjet flights. It doesn't address any other possible contamination by the infected travelers.

https://torontosun.com/news/nationa...sure/wcm/e146bd0f-4615-424a-93de-798aa1b22c68

Why do I feel like the virus is stalking us and is a lot smarter than our government ?


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> I don't think you have the time line right.
> 
> At the time I left, there were NO cases in Manitoba (none in prairies at all) and NO cases in Cuba. The only cases in Canada at the time were a handful in Ontario and BC... it was not widespread. And Cuba certainly wasn't seen as a high risk area.
> 
> The government had absolutely no travel advisories or even warnings at the time I left. And yes I diligently did check all warnings, for both Cuba and Canada. There weren't any warnings or even hints from government that travel should be avoided.
> 
> The government instruction to avoid all but non essential travel, and then to come home, happened after I left on my trip. There was no reasonable way to know at the time I left that things would develop this quickly.
> 
> I ask you to keep in mind that hindsight is 20/20 and we make decisions based on the best information available to us at the time. I am a worrier and a germaphobe and if I thought there was a COVID-19 risk at the time I was leaving, I would not have gone. And if you think it was "obvious" at the time, just take another look at the stock market. Nobody knew how fast this would develop.


There will be those who will look for someone to blame. The Chinese, the government, the WHO.........in Canada, the next group to be attacked will be ANYONE who travelled in March. As more tests are done AND as CANADA follows the typical trajectory of the rest of the world, the numbers will spike and the March travellers will take the brunt of the blame.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> There will be those who will look for someone to blame. The Chinese, the government, the WHO.........in Canada, the next group to be attacked will be ANYONE who travelled in March. As more tests are done AND as CANADA follows the typical trajectory of the rest of the world, the numbers will spike and the March travellers will take the brunt of the blame.


As is human nature.

And people will be tough on stock investors who were still in stocks.

And the perma bears and market nuts will scream that anyone could have seen the crash coming from a mile away.

Hindsight is 20/20 and all of this is human nature.


----------



## doctrine

Does everyone realize how screwed this US is? This virus is everywhere and rapidly spreading with little to no change in actual social behaviour. Canada is similar but a week behind.

The US is maybe 4 days away from total lockdown and maybe 1 week or less from an enforced quarantine with people being thrown in jail. 

They are going to exceed 10,000 cases within 24 hours and may even hit 20,000 this weekend. Total disaster.


----------



## sags

Travel in late February or very early March maybe people didn't know...but many of these people left after the pandemic was spreading around the world.

The local high school sent kids to the UK and they knew about the virus. They had meetings about the trip with parents and teachers and voted to go regardless of the situation.

Now they have left the UK due to outbreak fears and are in Scotland. Good luck to them getting home after airlines shut down.


----------



## sags

doctrine said:


> Does everyone realize how screwed this US is? This virus is everywhere and rapidly spreading with little to no change in actual social behaviour. Canada is similar but a week behind.
> 
> The US is maybe 4 days away from total lockdown and maybe 1 week or less from an enforced quarantine with people being thrown in jail.
> 
> They are going to exceed 10,000 cases within 24 hours and may even hit 20,000 this weekend. Total disaster.


They should gain the 4 days lead time and shut down now. Governments have to get ahead of this virus with action.........not trail along behind it.


----------



## james4beach

Again in my defense, I want to remind people the current belief at the time I (and many travellers) left.

Just a couple days before I departed, I was at a social function. Also present at this function were a handful of doctors from various fields. We're talking ER doctors, family docs, even some surgeons. Many children around too.

I was the only person there who was avoiding shaking hands. Even the doctors looked at me funny and laughed. The doctors (all of them! including the ER doc) were all shaking hands, even with children, etc. They were also eating cookies and things they touch by hand.

So again the point is that if you travel back in time, here in Winnipeg the mood was nothing like it is today. *Doctors and government did not see a major problem* and there were no warning about travel at all, from either Canada or the US.


----------



## sags

I would have stayed in Cuba. They can easily quarantine their island from the rest of the world and life carries on like usual.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Again in my defense, I want to remind people the current belief at the time I (and many travellers) left.


Don't see you needing any defense, you made a call to go (no different than I would have) and the government was allowing the travel at that time. I had many friends that went south just before you, all of them came back fine, no covid-19 issues.

As you stated, the activities today in Winnipeg are vastly different than they were last week. I just hope you have someone to get you groceries for the next two weeks or have enough to last you for now.


----------



## m3s

Hate to say james many saw it coming from a mile away but there is never much use saying so. The experts were all warning China can only slow down the spread long before it hit Italy

To be fair though if I had paid for flights and booked vacation to Cuba I probably would have still went as well. It was only on Friday work started to make changes and before that any cancellations/changes would have been a lot harder

The government is always reactive in nature until they have a precedence to operate on. If they cancelled people's vacations before people were dying there would have been an outcry in the streets. Even still people are ignoring the government

I had friends driving down to visit this week and I convinced them early last week not to come. Seemed like an over reaction at the time but they agreed when I said they could end up quarantined here or anywhere


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> As you stated, the activities today in Winnipeg are vastly different than they were last week. I just hope you have someone to get you groceries for the next two weeks or have enough to last you for now.


I know some people yes. In anticipation of a potential emergency I stocked up a large amount of peanuts and some canned beans shortly before leaving. Also have dry cereal and even some frozen bread-like things. Even some fruit. I think I'm OK for one week but yeah, I'll have to figure this out.

And to think that I thought my dad was crazy for constantly freezing bread. Seems it was a memory of the family's recent immigrant past and coming from other countries where there wasn't always plenty. I think he remembered his parents struggling with having enough food, and therefore, he always freezes everything.



m3s said:


> Hate to say james many saw it coming from a mile away but there is never much use saying so. The experts were all warning China can only slow down the spread long before it hit Italy


I realize you did see it coming, but even among my doctor friends, I would say about 2 in 10 saw this coming.


----------



## m3s

This could be the end of deep discount airlines to vacation destinations

If you pay a company for a flight to/from a destination they definitely did the right thing to fly those who paid them for a flight home

If the government has to repatriate millions of Canadians then eventually there will need to be taxes and regulations of tourism flights


----------



## andrewf

james4beach said:


> I don't think you have the time line right.
> 
> At the time I left, there were NO cases in Manitoba (none in prairies at all) and NO cases in Cuba. The only cases in Canada at the time were a handful in Ontario and BC... it was not widespread. And Cuba certainly wasn't seen as a high risk area.
> 
> The government had absolutely no travel advisories or even warnings at the time I left. And yes I diligently did check all warnings, for both Cuba and Canada. There weren't any warnings or even hints from government that travel should be avoided.
> 
> The government instruction to avoid all but non essential travel, and then to come home, happened after I left on my trip. There was no reasonable way to know at the time I left that things would develop this quickly.
> 
> I ask you to keep in mind that hindsight is 20/20 and we make decisions based on the best information available to us at the time. I am a worrier and a germaphobe and if I thought there was a COVID-19 risk at the time I was leaving, I would not have gone. And if you think it was "obvious" at the time, just take another look at the stock market. Nobody knew how fast this would develop.


I know by early to mid-last week, I was definitely thinking you would be crazy to leave home for leisure travel, as I was in a meeting with a colleague discussing their holiday plans and I asked if they were still going. I know government warnings took a while to catch up, but I expect people to use a bit of common sense.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> I think I'm OK for one week but yeah, I'll have to figure this out.


If you run into trouble shoot me a PM, I'm in Winnipeg as well and can help you out.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> I would have stayed in Cuba. They can easily quarantine their island from the rest of the world and life carries on like usual.


Foolish to think Cuba does not have Covid. They get lots of travellers from Europe.


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> I know government warnings took a while to catch up, but I expect people to use a bit of common sense.


Looking back, Cdn federal government ordered reassessment of all non-essential government related travel on 3 March. It was all advisory and case by case until last week when all non-essential travel was outright banned

We were cancelling travel to high risk areas like south korea already last month and getting questioned about plans but it was only on Friday that vacations starting getting cancelled


----------



## MrMatt

Wednesday /Thursday last week Doug Ford was saying go on your vacations.
Things are moving very fast. 

I appreciate that the government is very willing to change their directives when needed. 
The thing is this is an impossible balancing act, they are doing their best. 

Finally I like how they are trying to limit each day to only one or two points. Keep it simple and keep the daily changes easy to follow. 

If they implemented everything they have today last week, we'd have panic. So far people are still calm.


----------



## Longtimeago

OptsyEagle said:


> Things are getting a lot better.
> 
> If you put aside a rising infection rate and a rising death rate and a total stop on economic activity, for one minute, and look at what we are doing, it is nothing short of amazing. Less then a week ago, the majority of people were not alert to this thing at all. They were the risk. Even J4B went to Cuba, one week ago. I think he wanted to reduce his stress. How do you think that worked out for him.
> 
> Anyway, everyone is on full alert. Everyone is social distancing. Companies are ramping up the production of respirators and other necessary equipment. As soon as any positive treatment is found to reduce the death rate, it is immediately transmitted around the world to the necessary professionals, almost instantly. More nurses are being trained, as we speak. Testing drive thru's are popping up everywhere. People are hearing the message all around the world.
> 
> This is how it will go down. The infections will rise rapidly over the next few weeks. It will be mind numbing and scary, but with social distancing and a motivated response we will process through those. As we do, some will die, most will not. Those who survive will be immune. They will start to pick up the slack in the other areas of the economy that will start to fall short, allowing more non-immune to stay indoors. Those areas would be ensuring our food supply, our infrastucture, etc., and this will start to drive the newly infected curve into a downward direction. Eventually, and I predict no later then Christmas, the concern over this virus will be in the history books.
> 
> You can see it happening before your eyes. It's amazing to watch. I would rather have avoided it but it is still quite the wonder to experience.


Well there is nothing wrong with hoping but do not confuse it for facts. First, immunity is not a given. There is no proof that people do not re-infect and there has been some mention (not verified) that it has happened.

Second, the infection rate may peak and then fall but it may plateau from there, not necessarily disappear entirely and it may continue on at that level if measures are kept in place, right into next year and next winter. There simply is no KNOWN answer to what will happen, only conjecture and guesswork.

I hope it works out the way you suggest but only time will tell.


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## sags

Cuba has an effective treatment for COVID19 that they manufacture themselves. It is called interferon, which I remember from the past.

https://www.peoplesworld.org/articl...industry-producing-needed-covid-19-medicines/


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> I don't think you have the time line right.
> 
> At the time I left, there were NO cases in Manitoba (none in prairies at all) and NO cases in Cuba. The only cases in Canada at the time were a handful in Ontario and BC... it was not widespread. And Cuba certainly wasn't seen as a high risk area.
> 
> The government had absolutely no travel advisories or even warnings at the time I left. And yes I diligently did check all warnings, for both Cuba and Canada. There weren't any warnings or even hints from government that travel should be avoided.
> 
> The government instruction to avoid all but non essential travel, and then to come home, happened after I left on my trip. There was no reasonable way to know at the time I left that things would develop this quickly.
> 
> I ask you to keep in mind that hindsight is 20/20 and we make decisions based on the best information available to us at the time. I am a worrier and a germaphobe and if I thought there was a COVID-19 risk at the time I was leaving, I would not have gone. And if you think it was "obvious" at the time, just take another look at the stock market. Nobody knew how fast this would develop.


Yes, you were able to do a fine job of self-justifying going. All you had to do was ignore the advice you were given here and keep saying there is no government 'travel advisory' or known cases in Manitoba or Cuba.

It was 'obvious' to others here at the time you left that it was not a good time to be going anywhere. I wonder how you managed to miss what was obvious to so many others.


----------



## MrMatt

I think it is premature to say interferon is a cure. Since it showed good results against SARS-CoV, it undoubtedly was tested against this SARS-CoV aka COVID-19 et al.
It is one of the many possibilities out there, but beyond acetaminophen instead of ibuprofen, I don't think many treatment guidelines have been released.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> It was 'obvious' to others here at the time you left that it was not a good time to be going anywhere. I wonder how you managed to miss what was obvious to so many others.


LTA, people are generally allowed to make their own risk assessment and thankfully, they don't have to align with your view!

J4B had a good time, came back alright (so far) and is self-isolating which alot of people are doing already even if they didn't travel.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> I think it is premature to say interferon is a cure. Since it showed good results against SARS-CoV, it undoubtedly was tested against this SARS-CoV aka COVID-19 et al.
> It is one of the many possibilities out there, but beyond acetaminophen instead of ibuprofen, I don't think many treatment guidelines have been released.


Misread your post. You are right.....ibuprofen should be avoided if a person becomes infected.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Yes, you were able to do a fine job of self-justifying going. All you had to do was ignore the advice you were given here and keep saying there is no government 'travel advisory' or known cases in Manitoba or Cuba.
> 
> It was 'obvious' to others here at the time you left that it was not a good time to be going anywhere. I wonder how you managed to miss what was obvious to so many others.


What’s the saying about a broken clock? Lol


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> LTA, people are generally allowed to make their own risk assessment and thankfully, they don't have to align with your view!
> 
> J4B had a good time, came back alright (so far) and is self-isolating which alot of people are doing already even if they didn't travel.


Yes, so what. J4B has come back and is saying, "I am a worrier and a germaphobe and if I thought there was a COVID-19 risk at the time I was leaving, I would not have gone. And if you think it was "obvious" at the time, just take another look at the stock market. Nobody knew how fast this would develop."

I am saying, nonsense to that. He self-justified his decision in the face of advice he was given here and there were plenty of people who could see it was obvious it was not a good time to travel. 

He is entitled as is everyone to do their own risk assessment and make their own decisions.  What he is not entitled to do is suggest that it was not 'obvious' to others. People here told him it was obvious and he ignored that. Now he wants to try and IMPLY no one could have foreseen what happened a few days later. 

I'm simply calling bullshit on that. People could and did see it as obvious and so I asked J4B why he thinks he did not see it as obvious. There are several possible explanations for why he did not see what was obvious to others. Would you care to suggest to him what those possible explanations might be?

I will suggest that he self-justifed his decision and ignored any advice to the contrary, simply because he would have lost money. It doesn't have to be hindsight to have 20/20 vision. Some can see perfectly well ahead of time when they aren't blinded by the almighty dollar.


----------



## james4beach

Longtimeago said:


> Yes, you were able to do a fine job of self-justifying going. All you had to do was ignore the advice you were given here and keep saying there is no government 'travel advisory' or known cases in Manitoba or Cuba.
> 
> It was 'obvious' to others here at the time you left that it was not a good time to be going anywhere. I wonder how you managed to miss what was obvious to so many others.


Frankly, you are all strangers on the internet. Ask 100 people for opinions and you'll get 100 answers.

The reality is that *official* guidance at the time was to continue travel as normal. I acted responsibly and checked the resources I trust... I polled family members, friends, looked at government advisories (there were none), US/Canada/Cuba advisories (there were none) and even asked friends who were MDs. I also asked friends who recently returned from Latin America only days prior.

I took the proper actions and put far more research into my decision to go than a person normally would.

Hindsight is 20/20. If you had such a great crystal ball, why didn't you short the market? Put your money where your mouth is.

Why didn't you short airline stocks? That was the trade of a lifetime. What you describe was NOT obvious to the general world and the market, a week ago.



Longtimeago said:


> I'm simply calling bullshit on that. People could and did see it as obvious and so I asked J4B why he thinks he did not see it as obvious.


And you saw it as obvious? Yet didn't take any market positions, nor give us trade guidance on this *investing* web site.

With your clairvoyance (clearly better than government officials and medical professionals) why didn't you trade based on it? You would be extremely wealthy today if you had simply bought put options on just about any airline stocks. A fortune would have been made.

Why didn't you do it? And while you have your crystal ball out, why don't you tell us what's next? Again, there is huge money to be made... and apparently these matters are so obvious, and you know how things will play out.

What trade would you make today, smart guy?

Here's what I think. I think that you constantly come up with strong minded opinions on various things. You're wrong on a lot of them, you're right on some, but your success rate is probably no better than average. On this matter you were right. But you are not an authority, and in fact around here you (like all of us) are nobody. It would be ridiculous for a stranger on the internet to take life guidance from you... and the fact you get 4 in 7 events correctly does not make you any more reliable than anyone else.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> He is entitled as is everyone to do their own risk assessment and make their own decisions. What he is not entitled to do is suggest that it was not 'obvious' to others. People here told him it was obvious and he ignored that. Now he wants to try and IMPLY no one could have foreseen what happened a few days later.


Well first off, thanks for mentioning that people can do their own risk assessment. The odd thing is you acknowledge that right but feel it's your duty to "call them out" on their decision if it doesn't align with yours.

BTW, do you think the opinions of a few people on a financial forum is a good way to assess travel risk?


----------



## Mukhang pera

An interesting perspective:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI


----------



## Money172375

+1 for j4b and cainvest.

The entire 1st week of my son’s grade 11 law class was spent on fake news sources and using trusted sources. One of the biggest sources of falsehoods.....online forums.

https://digest.bps.org.uk/2018/05/3...knowledge-and-ignoring-chances-to-learn-more/


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> Frankly, you are all strangers on the internet. Ask 100 people for opinions and you'll get 100 answers.
> 
> The reality is that *official* guidance at the time was to continue travel as normal. I acted responsibly and checked the resources I trust... I polled family members, friends, looked at government advisories (there were none), US/Canada/Cuba advisories (there were none) and even asked friends who were MDs. I also asked friends who recently returned from Latin America only days prior.
> 
> I took the proper actions and put far more research into my decision to go than a person normally would.
> 
> Hindsight is 20/20. If you had such a great crystal ball, why didn't you short the market? Put your money where your mouth is.
> 
> Why didn't you short airline stocks? That was the trade of a lifetime. What you describe was NOT obvious to the general world and the market, a week ago.
> 
> 
> 
> And you saw it as obvious? Yet didn't take any market positions, nor give us trade guidance on this *investing* web site.
> 
> With your clairvoyance (clearly better than government officials and medical professionals) why didn't you trade based on it? You would be extremely wealthy today if you had simply bought put options on just about any airline stocks. A fortune would have been made.
> 
> Why didn't you do it? And while you have your crystal ball out, why don't you tell us what's next? Again, there is huge money to be made... and apparently these matters are so obvious, and you know how things will play out.
> 
> What trade would you make today, smart guy?
> 
> Here's what I think. I think that you constantly come up with strong minded opinions on various things. You're wrong on a lot of them, you're right on some, but your success rate is probably no better than average. On this matter you were right. But you are not an authority, and in fact around here you (like all of us) are nobody. It would be ridiculous for a stranger on the internet to take life guidance from you... and the fact you get 4 in 7 events correctly does not make you any more reliable than anyone else.


My, my, did I hit a nerve james4beach?

First, yes, it was obvious to me it was not a good time to travel. In fact, I had already decided (and think I said so at the time) that I was cancelling all thoughts of travelling anywhere this entire year. Nor do I think I was alone here in saying so.

Second, unlike many here, I do not invest in stocks. I haven't since I learned my lesson back on October 19, 1987 when I saw my stock holdings 'paper' value crash by 20%+ between breakfast and dinner. Nowadays, I couldn't care less what the stock market does on a personal financial level. I found other ways to invest money, retire in my early 40s and enjoy the good life for the last 31 years on my ever increasing income. But hey, that's just my one person's experience. Maybe the stock market investors have done better than I have.

If you want me to make a stock market prediction for you though I will. Here it is, no one will make or loss money until they sell their stocks. 'Paper' profits or losses are not 'real' profits or losses until then.

On the other hand, I will make profit today, next week, next month and probably next year. I KNOW I will do so because all of my income comes from REAL sources. Even someone with no other source than EI has more guarantee of making money this week than any stock investor has.

As for how often I am right vs. wrong, yes I am wrong sometimes. But then I divorced her and in everything else, I know I only have to be right 51% of the time to remain ahead of the game. If I were right 4 out of 7 times as you apparently consider is a fact, I'd be as rich as Bill Gates which unfortunately, I am not. But I do OK.


----------



## cainvest

Money172375 said:


> What’s the saying about a broken clock? Lol


lol, is there a specific type of broken clock you are referring too?


----------



## sags

James is intelligent and thougtful and is self isolating. Thanks James.

Other travelers aren't nearly so. Two local high schools with kids trapped in Europe surely weren't. Teachers are supposed to be the smart ones. Would they plead ignorance ?

In our city the last couple days, a 20 year old healthcare worker here goes to Vegas and returns home infected and then goes to work. 

A 44 year old assistant Crown goes to the Caribbean and returns to work infected. Both traveled well after the outbreak was well known.

I suspect the many people who are getting phone calls from the Health Agency because of contact with either of them aren't impressed.

They should have self isolated themselves but they chose not to. My wife's boss returned from a trip to the Caribbean last week. The employer told him to stay home for 14 days.

If everyone was as thoughtful as James there wouldn't be a problem. But they aren't and that is why there is a problem with people traveling.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Well first off, thanks for mentioning that people can do their own risk assessment. The odd thing is you acknowledge that right but feel it's your duty to "call them out" on their decision if it doesn't align with yours.
> 
> BTW, do you think the opinions of a few people on a financial forum is a good way to assess travel risk?


No, I am not calling anyone out on disagreeing with me cainvest. I'm calling james4beach out for implying it could not have been 'obvious' to anyone else, that it was not a good time to be travelling. It was obvious to many people, but not apparently to james4beach. All I did was say so and ask him why he thinks it was obvious to others but not to him.

As for how to assess travel risk, that is up to the individual as you have said yourself. How I think using the opinions of people in a financial forum to do so is irrelevant. Your question is therefore pointless.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> lol, is there a specific type of broken clock you are referring too?


You don't know the quote? Even a broken clock is right twice in 24 hours. I guess Money172375 was alluding to either james4beach or I being right sometimes. You can decide for yourself who was right this particular time.


----------



## sags

Today a brave woman became the first healthy person to try a COVID19 vaccine. Hope for the best. We may know the results in a few weeks.

https://www.reddit.com/r/HumansBein...monday_31620_45_people_arrived_at_the_kaiser/

Actually that is a good sub-Reddit if you want to lift your spirits. People doing what people do best.

https://www.reddit.com/r/HumansBeingBros/


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> An interesting perspective:
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI


It is a perspective certainly. There are many of them on Youtube Mukhang pera. Some even seem logical but that doesn't tell us which of them is right or wrong unfortunately. If this guy is right and the emperor is naked, it won't hurt me at all. If he's wrong and I listen to him, what then? 

A relative in Scotland was complaining that there are 7 reported positive cases in her county. Unlike here, they are not saying which specific town or city a case is in. So she doesn't know if any of the cases are in her particular town or not, which for obvious reasons she would like to know. It would affect just how cautious she is going to be. She is in a high risk category both for age and for an already existing chronic lung problem. I told her the answer is simple. ASSUME they are all in your town and act accordingly. 

It's one of those things where being over cautious is better than not being cautious enough. If you don't know, assume the worst when it comes to something that could kill you.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> James is intelligent and thougtful and is self isolating. Thanks James.
> 
> Other travelers aren't nearly so. Two local high schools with kids trapped in Europe surely weren't. Teachers are supposed to be the smart ones. Would they plead ignorance ?
> 
> In our city the last couple days, a 20 year old healthcare worker here goes to Vegas and returns home infected and then goes to work.
> 
> A 44 year old assistant Crown goes to the Caribbean and returns to work infected. Both traveled well after the outbreak was well known.
> 
> I suspect the many people who are getting phone calls from the Health Agency because of contact with either of them aren't impressed.
> 
> They should have self isolated themselves but they chose not to. My wife's boss returned from a trip to the Caribbean last week. The employer told him to stay home for 14 days.
> 
> If everyone was as thoughtful as James there wouldn't be a problem. But they aren't and that is why there is a problem with people traveling.


I agree james4beach is now doing the right thing. I commend him for that notwithstanding my other comments re the wisdom of his decision to go in the first place. Credit where credit is due.


----------



## sags

A good idea for landlords. Return half of the last month's rent deposit to help tenants now.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> You don't know the quote? Even a broken clock is right twice in 24 hours. I guess Money172375 was alluding to either james4beach or I being right sometimes. You can decide for yourself who was right this particular time.


The mystery.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> No, I am not calling anyone out on disagreeing with me cainvest. I'm calling james4beach out for implying it could not have been 'obvious' to anyone else, that it was not a good time to be travelling. It was obvious to many people, but not apparently to james4beach. All I did was say so and ask him why he thinks it was obvious to others but not to him.
> 
> As for how to assess travel risk, that is up to the individual as you have said yourself. How I think using the opinions of people in a financial forum to do so is irrelevant. Your question is therefore pointless.


Yes, you are calling him out based on a few opinions expressed here that one should not be travelling right now. Just like you did when people were returning from travel earlier and you were fearing for your life that they might infect your local supermaket.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> You don't know the quote? Even a broken clock is right twice in 24 hours. I guess Money172375 was alluding to either james4beach or I being right sometimes. You can decide for yourself who was right this particular time.


lol, I do know it but wasn't sure if there was more intent behind that post.


----------



## Money172375

cainvest said:


> lol, I do know it but wasn't sure if there was more intent behind that post.


A little laughter is needed these days.


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> A good idea for landlords. Return half of the last month's rent deposit to help tenants now.


Heck, don't be pusillanimous as a landlord. Go all out and forthwith terminate any obligation to pay rent and convey to your tenants an ownership interest in the property. If, for example, it's a single family home, put them on title as joint tenants with you for a half interest. That would be the right thing to do!


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> A good idea for landlords. Return half of the last month's rent deposit to help tenants now.


Not every tenant needs help, and some landlords depend on the rental income.


----------



## sags

I like MP's ideas better. I wonder if he could provide counsel to our landlord on the right thing to do.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Prairie Guy said:


> Not every tenant needs help, and some landlords depend on the rental income.


Some landlords depend on rental income lol you got that right. Where do you suppose the rent money goes? I can tell you as a former landlord, 40% comes off the top to pay taxes, insurance, water bill, hydro, garbage pickup, repairs, etc etc every month. Most of the other 60% goes to pay the mortgage. IF you are fully rented and IF you collect from every tenant, two big IFS you can cover your bills.If not sucks to be you. Contrary to popular belief most landlords do not have a Scrooge McDuck vault full of money to roll around in. 

I might also add, in recent years real estate prices have been so high many landlords have negative cash flow at the best of times, if they bought in the last 5 years.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> I like MP's ideas better. I wonder if he could provide counsel to our landlord on the right thing to do.


Every solution you have for every problem requires someone to give someone else some of their money.


----------



## Retired Peasant

james4beach said:


> Again in my defense, I want to remind people the current belief at the time I (and many travellers) left.
> 
> I was the only person there who was avoiding shaking hands.


Even before you went you said


> At the risk of the forum turning on me,


Seems you did have an inkling. Why would you think the forum would turn on you?


----------



## james4beach

Retired Peasant said:


> Even before you went you said
> 
> Seems you did have an inkling. Why would you think the forum would turn on you?


Probably in response to the immediate posts before it.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> It is a perspective certainly. There are many of them on Youtube Mukhang pera. Some even seem logical but that doesn't tell us which of them is right or wrong unfortunately. If this guy is right and the emperor is naked, it won't hurt me at all. If he's wrong and I listen to him, what then?
> 
> It's one of those things where being over cautious is better than not being cautious enough. If you don't know, assume the worst when it comes to something that could kill you.


Yes LTA. I know there are many on YT and I certainly did not say this one had more merit than any other. That's why I posted the link sans comment. 

As of now, I think no one is right or wrong. The best doctors and scientists, while sounding learned on the topic, really have no clue. That's not a shortcoming. It's just how it is. We humans know a lot less about how things work than we think we do. All the measures we might take - closing borders, etc., will simply postpone the inevitable. "Flattening the curve" is a catchy battlecry, but I think it will be for naught. 

I am all for assuming the worst. That's why I posted elsewhere about having a will etc. Even though I live in a remote location, I expect the worst. I am 60+ in age. I expect both to get the virus and to die. I am prepared. Getting out alive will be a bonus to be sure. I am not fearful, angry or much else. I have had a great life and had a lot more blessings - including good health so far - than most. I have seen people far younger than I die off due to a variety of causal factors. My own guess is that millions for sure, and quite possibly billions, will die in the next 2 years. It is perhaps what the planet needs to survive.


----------



## marina628

I cancelled our trip to Florida on March 6 because I did not feel safe to do so but our niece left 5 days ago with her husband and 2 kids to go to Mexico because she could not get a refund of the $6000 or so she had paid.James is a young healthy person so he felt ok going away and now doing the right thing.Hopefully you have sorted out a way to get groceries delivered and stay safe. My other niece was in University in France and the family had to do a bit of a crowd funding to get her home to St.John's before the boarders closed in France ,it was $3900 and 17 hours but we got her home to Canada.
Last week I met a few local CMF members in Toronto for lunch and we hugged so few of us here may already be doomed lol


----------



## james4beach

Mukhang pera said:


> Even though I live in a remote location, I expect the worst. I am 60+ in age. I expect both to get the virus and to die. I am prepared. Getting out alive will be a bonus to be sure.


I think that is overly pessimistic MP. I don't know how old you are, but unless you're 90 or something, I think you have a decent chance of surviving even if you get infected. Clearly, not everyone dies. What's the highest estimate of the death rate from COVID-19? Maybe over age 80, it's something like 15% death rate.

Yes that's bad but does that not mean 85% chance of surviving after being infected?


----------



## sags

Prairie Guy said:


> Every solution you have for every problem requires someone to give someone else some of their money.


Let me fix that for you.

"Every solution you have for every problem requires someone to give someone else some of their money back."


----------



## Prairie Guy

Giving it back to who? The employer who paid me? Any money I have earned is mine alone...there is no "back".


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I think that is overly pessimistic MP. I don't know how old you are, but unless you're 90 or something, I think you have a decent chance of surviving even if you get infected. Clearly, not everyone dies. What's the highest estimate of the death rate from COVID-19? Maybe over age 80, it's something like 15% death rate.
> 
> Yes that's bad but does that not mean 85% chance of surviving after being infected?


Highest estimate of death from COVID-19, Looks like Italy.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Read the data however you want, it's not good. It's only good if you assume they have a lot of cases that are not accounted for.


----------



## Mukhang pera

james4beach said:


> I think that is overly pessimistic MP. I don't know how old you are, but unless you're 90 or something, I think you have a decent chance of surviving even if you get infected. Clearly, not everyone dies. What's the highest estimate of the death rate from COVID-19? Maybe over age 80, it's something like 15% death rate.
> 
> Yes that's bad but does that not mean 85% chance of surviving after being infected?


More than 60, less than 70 James. 

And don't take any criticism for your travels. You acted reasonably in my view. Of course my view includes the belief that we all will get hit with the virus within the next year or so and whether or not I get it from you on your re-entry to Canada means nothing. I'll get hit anyway.


----------



## sags

Prairie Guy said:


> Giving it back to who? The employer who paid me? Any money I have earned is mine alone...there is no "back".


The landlord gives the money back to the tenant, since it is the tenant's money.

We paid the last month deposit 14 years ago and the landlord still has it.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The landlord gives the money back to the tenant, since it is the tenant's money.
> 
> We paid the last month deposit 14 years ago and the landlord still has it.


Yes, and the landlord should be paying you interest on your last months deposit.

I'm wondering how many people are going to screw over landlords with this "no evictions" policy.


----------



## marina628

sags said:


> The landlord gives the money back to the tenant, since it is the tenant's money.
> 
> We paid the last month deposit 14 years ago and the landlord still has it.


So you get your last month rent back then what?If you were my tenant of 14 years and had hardship I would be willing to use last month rent to pay April 1 rent but if you are a tenant constantly late paying rent the issue was there long before a week ago.I have a friend who has not paid his rent in 3 months due to illness but he just did some income taxes and his refund is more than the rent he owes.He could sit and pay nothing as LTB is backed up before this and now there are no evictions.He is tempted to keep the tax refund in case he needs money but I told him being a squatter and not paying rent again April 1 is not a good thing to do.My friend has a drinking problem had money and blew it and will likely be bankrupt by end of the year but I try to tell him keep the rent paid and roof over his head , some landlords would have to sell missing 1-2 months rent.


----------



## james4beach

Mukhang pera said:


> More than 60, less than 70 James.


The fatality rate for the 60-69 age group is only 3.6% so I would think you have *> 96% chance of surviving*, even if infected.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/



> And don't take any criticism for your travels. You acted reasonably in my view. Of course my view includes the belief that we all will get hit with the virus within the next year or so and whether or not I get it from you on your re-entry to Canada means nothing. I'll get hit anyway.


Thanks. I do stand by my decisions.


----------



## Mukhang pera

james4beach said:


> The fatality rate for the 60-69 age group is only 3.6% so I would think you have *> 96% chance of surviving*, even if infected.
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/


I feel better already! Maybe I should head out to Costco and see if I can buy a pallet of toilet paper :cocksure:


----------



## Money172375

It’s hitting home for me. My nieces daycare is closing. My brother is a mechanic but there’s no customers at his dealership. He took a week vacation but is likely headed to ei.


----------



## marina628

We are very lucky that our income is safe ,our son is a Visual Strategist working for a big company in Toronto so they are working remotely as of March 11 .My 17 year old is getting motivated to clean out her closets and get ready to donate all her gently used clothing and painting her bedroom.


----------



## sags

I suggested landlords could return 50% of the last month deposit. The tenant would pay that 50% of the rent in their last month of tenancy.

It costs the landlord nothing and has nothing to do with evictions or skipping rent payments. The only landlords who would suffer financially are those who illegally spent the deposits.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Money172375 said:


> It’s hitting home for me. My nieces daycare is closing. My brother is a mechanic but there’s no customers at his dealership. He took a week vacation but is likely headed to ei.


Unfortuneately, very soon that is not going to be called "hitting home" anymore. Very, very soon we are all going to start getting the word about our brother, or our nephew, or our Dad, who just tested positive and has a terrible fever. 

Just get prepared for it. It will happen, but it will also pass. Keep in mind, as well, that the majority will survive. For a while you will be really worried and concerned, but once they survive, they will literally become the envy of us all. They will be immune.

They will be sending you pictures of all their friends, who survived this thing, drinking beer from a funnel, doing shots. dancing together, telling you how great it is that the Tim Hortons drive though never has a waiting line these days, etc., while we all sit at home.

Anyway, soon we will all be there. Drinking beer from the funnel I mean. lol

Stay safe everyone.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> The fatality rate for the 60-69 age group is only 3.6% so I would think you have *> 96% chance of surviving*, even if infected.
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks. I do stand by my decisions.


That's case fatality rate, which includes active cases.
not closed case data, ie death vs recovery.

Also it seems very unlikely that the 60+ crowd COVID-19 way more often than the under 50 crowd.
That data doesn't add up.


That being said, i don't think it was a bad idea to go on vacation while the government was literally still telling people to "go on vacation".

I would not have gone, but I'm very conservative.


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> Looking back, Cdn federal government ordered reassessment of all non-essential government related travel on 3 March. It was all advisory and case by case until last week when all non-essential travel was outright banned
> 
> We were cancelling travel to high risk areas like south korea already last month and getting questioned about plans but it was only on Friday that vacations starting getting cancelled


My company issued a memo the morning of March 3 that non-essential travel was to be avoided and to use strong caution in personal travel. I heard about this memo the day prior as part of contingency planning. This did not pop up last week.


----------



## andrewf

Mukhang pera said:


> An interesting perspective:
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI


Well, how many young people land in hospital on respirators due to normal flu/coronavirus infections. If he thinks this is being blown our of proportion, would he propose we wait a month or two to see how high the bodies stack?

It's also not normal for hospitals to be completely overwhelmed with acute respiratory infections, especially at this time of year. Hopefully that is enough to satisfy his what-aboutism.


----------



## m3s

There's now 4 items in stock on amazon pantry. Any recipe ideas? Scratch the blueberry filling, make that 3 items in stock










Went to order delivery or pickup from the local grocery store and that service wasn't available anymore. So I drove out to the grocery store but they were all closed early.

People are now wearing masks in public

Hmm


----------



## Eder

COVID-19 is where Malaria is not

RESULTS, Multi-country average malaria cases per thousand, COVID-19 cases per million, in three classes of countries based on malaria incidence:


*Top 40 Malaria countries: 212 malaria = 0.2 COVID-19;*
*Next 40 Malaria countries: 7.3 malaria = 10.1 COVID-19*
*Remaining (81-234) countries: 0.00 malaria = 68.7 COVID-19*
 Again, the units are Malaria cases per thousand “population at risk”, and COVID-19 cases per million total population.

Best buy a lot of tonic water...contains quinine. (Gin n Tonic..squeeze of lime)


----------



## m3s

Malaria thrives in warmer climate and a fever kills the flu

Turn up your thermostat to 40c


----------



## Eder

Scientists think it's the anti malaria drugs...

Chloroquine as a prophylactic (preventative) measure against COVID-19[SUP][11][/SUP]
According to research by the US CDC, chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS coronavirus, both prophylactically and therapeutically. SARS coronavirus has significant similarities to COVID-19. Specifically, the CDC research was completed in primate cells using chloroquine’s well known function of elevating endosomal pH. The results show that “We have identified chloroquine as an effective antiviral agent for SARS-CoV in cell culture conditions, as evidenced by its inhibitory effect when the drug was added prior to infection or after the initiation and establishment of infection. The fact that chloroquine exerts an antiviral effect during pre- and post-infection conditions suggest that it is likely to have both prophylactic and therapeutic advantages.”
The study shows that chloroquine is effective in preventing SARS-CoV infection in cell culture if the drug is added to the cells 24 h prior to infection.


----------



## Mukhang pera

andrewf said:


> Well, how many young people land in hospital on respirators due to normal flu/coronavirus infections. If he thinks this is being blown our of proportion, would he propose we wait a month or two to see how high the bodies stack?
> 
> It's also not normal for hospitals to be completely overwhelmed with acute respiratory infections, especially at this time of year. Hopefully that is enough to satisfy his what-aboutism.


Well don't get so pissed. He just offers another view to consider. As I said, I do not think anyone has a clue. But I think the best view is almost all of us will get the damn bug sooner than later. But who knows? Me, I don't much care. I am quite content to go. I have had a good life. I am over 60 and likely not survive, although J4B offered some hope. My 16-year-old kid and my wife will very likely survive. They will inherit a variety of assets, some of which should retain some value in the new world order. Some will be rendered worthless, but that's the beauty of diversification, which I think is an investing strategy employed by most here. If all I had to leave behind was a stock market portfolio, they would be doomed. But I have more arrows in my quiver.


----------



## Eder

Once most posts become as gloomy as MP's I will know to start adding.


----------



## MrMatt

That's good, and they've been looking at it for a while. We'll see what they say in a few days.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Mukhang pera said:


> Well don't get so pissed. He just offers another view to consider. As I said, I do not think anyone has a clue. But I think the best view is almost all of us will get the damn bug sooner than later. But who knows? Me, I don't much care. I am quite content to go. I have had a good life. I am over 60 and likely not survive, although J4B offered some hope. My 16-year-old kid and my wife will very likely survive. They will inherit a variety of assets, some of which should retain some value in the new world order. Some will be rendered worthless, but that's the beauty of diversification, which I think is an investing strategy employed by most here. If all I had to leave behind was a stock market portfolio, they would be doomed. But I have more arrows in my quiver.


I always say. Plan to be hit with the worse case scenario. Many think this is pessimistic thinking. On the contrary. When you are ready to receive the worst case scenario, the future almost always brings you something better...and I have always preferred a brighter future.


----------



## MrMatt

To those thinking it's an old person disease.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...of-u-s-coronavirus-hospitalizations-1.4859404


----------



## Parkuser

Mukhang pera said:


> ... I am over 60 and likely not survive, although J4B offered some hope...


Well, you know the probabilities, have a look at what they really mean (1==100%):

https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2015/09/23/what-does-probability-mean-in-your-profession/

The first graph shows the actual meaning. I am a tad older than you and still consider myself to be in the range "probably not" (a goner, naturally). You are reacting to what the Local News Anchor says, graph 4, which is "you are statistically a goner."

In lawyerese, I would say sursum corda.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> To those thinking it's an old person disease.
> 
> https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...of-u-s-coronavirus-hospitalizations-1.4859404


Yes, the message that it isn't a problem for younger people has been taken as a 'it doesn't exist for younger people' message and that is entirely incorrect. 

Unfortunately, a great many young people have not being taking it seriously at all as a result. Pictures of crowds on Florida beaches have made a lot of people angry with our younger people who are acting irresponsibly. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-florida-beaches-ignore-social-distancing/

Everyone of ANY age should be practicing social distancing right now but that obviously isn't happening with many younger people still. The video link about a third of the way down that link 'If I get corona, I get corona', shows just how ignorant some young people are.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Too bad we couldn't get a stat on "infections per IQ level".

No need. I think we know what it would look like.


----------



## james4beach

Obviously COVID-19 is very serious and obviously young people shouldn't be dancing around and partying in public... total insanity. We really all should be staying at home and not mingling other than absolutely necessary.

On the other hand the disease *does not kill everyone* and I think at times there is some off-the-scale negativity on this message board and other boards. I do understand it's good to plan for the worst, but there is also a serious psychological / mental health angle to an outbreak like this and so I think maintaining some POSITIVITY is healthy.

The Red Cross has sent around some resources, including a mental health kit which I will find a way to post here. The issue is that people are getting into some serious spirals of anxiety and panic over all of this. This can impact sleep, which in turn impacts your immune system strength.

To keep yourself as healthy as possible, you also need to maintain a healthy mental state, which includes keeping anxiety and panic in check.

Mukhang pera may have some other health conditions (I don't know him) but even if he does, he is certainly not 100% guaranteed to die of this. Not even 50%.

I'm arguing for some balance here. Obviously one should take the outbreak very seriously but you also can't go to extremes of fear. We will NOT all die of this, and there is progress being made in both treatment and vaccines. Social media has an effect of amplifying people's anxieties and fears and I think we should be aware of that.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Obviously COVID-19 is very serious and obviously young people shouldn't be dancing around and partying in public... total insanity. We really all should be staying at home and not mingling other than absolutely necessary.
> 
> On the other hand the disease *does not kill everyone* and I think at times there is some off-the-scale negativity on this message board and other boards. I do understand it's good to plan for the worst, but there is also a serious psychological / mental health angle to an outbreak like this and so I think maintaining some POSITIVITY is healthy.


Yes, but they're expecting massive numbers of health workers to get sick. 

Also the fatality rate of mid single digits aren't odds that I like.


----------



## Eder

Well I'm sitting in Vancouver airport....nothing out of the usual to see in Honolulu or Vancouver airport regarding the virus...restaurants are open, people are crowded . Bought 2 coffee's at Starbucks, workers wearing no gloves etc, handling muffins with their hands when heating them up, chick that poured my coffee's pressed the lids onto the cup with the palm of her hand. 
Media talking about draconian measures but the reality is there are none. Good times...


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> On the other hand the disease *does not kill everyone* and I think at times there is some off-the-scale negativity on this message board and other boards.


The "does not kill everyone" is not really helpful is it?

Each person needs to assess their risk factors and act accordingly. If you're older and have one (or more) of the existing conditions that are linked to higher death rates then take extreme precautions. Some stores here are even having special open hours (usually first thing in the morning) for those that are at higher risk.

For those at all risk levels that are still out and about, do your part in trying to reduce community spread. We're lucky here as no community spread is happening but it's very likely someone will be the first to spread it. I was shopping late last night and watched a person in one aisle pick up and put back at least 10 different items in less than a minute. They had no cart, basket or items in hand, looked they they were just browsing. If they were infected, they just created a potential community case explosion.

Most of this is just common sense but I guess for some it just doesn't sink in. I think a level of general fear, not panic, just fear is good here but needs to be balanced with the reality of your local situation and health risks specific to you.


----------



## sags

Residents in nursing and retirement homes are supposed to be on mandatory lock down, but the one my wife works at is letting residents go out and walk around.

There is an internal patio they could walk around and get fresh air. There are windows that open. 

Family isn't allowed into the residence and I suspect some residents are going out for a walk so they can meet with family down the road a bit.

Unfortunately, this is how viruses spread in nursing and retirement homes and old people die.


----------



## cainvest

Eder said:


> Bought 2 coffee's at Starbucks, workers wearing no gloves etc, handling muffins with their hands when heating them up, chick that poured my coffee's pressed the lids onto the cup with the palm of her hand.


Actually, the gloves are mainly for their protection, not yours. If they are washing their hands often, especially when in contact with higher risk areas (customer contact) you're likely better off they don't have gloves on. From what I've seen workers are not changing gloves often, likely only change a few times each shift.


----------



## agent99

m3s said:


> Looks like NY is the new epicenter in the US. It went from like 1000 to 1700 today. Maybe they started testing more
> 
> Apparently there are lineups outside of gun stores now in NY. They fear what comes when people lose their jobs


Driving back through NY state on I-81, they have electronic signs at very frequent intervals. 
For example: STAY HOME - STOP THE SPREAD SAVE LIVES#FLATTENTHECURVE ; 

In Carolinas, everything on highways still open, Virginia too, I think. Not sure about WV and Maryland as we didn't stop. In Penn, all rest stops were closed and ramps barricaded. Could not even pull in to change drivers. Fast foods still open for either drive through or pickup. At least we could use their restrooms. First visitor center in NY on I-81 was open. Apparently others were closed. Restaurants same as in Penn - partially open. 

At border, just asked about our health, advised we should go into self-isolation (no details of what that entails) and handed a form explaining Covid-19 symptoms and what to do if you have them. Just says to avoid places where you could get or pass on virus. Did take us 15min from when we arrived - just two cars ahead of us. But no big deal.

RBC Insurance are refunding unused portion of coverage. No questions asked.

Now time to look at mail and think about doing taxes (although no rush, it seems)


----------



## m3s

NY just went from 3k to 4k confirmed










The curve outside China started out exactly the same. China imposed a shelter-in-place while we made advisories to people who do what they want


----------



## james4beach

agent99 said:


> At border, just asked about our health, advised we should go into self-isolation (no details of what that entails) and handed a form explaining Covid-19 symptoms and what to do if you have them. Just says to avoid places where you could get or pass on virus. Did take us 15min from when we arrived - just two cars ahead of us. But no big deal.


You are now in 14 day self isolation, like me. At the airport the agent was very clear: this is not optional; you are required to stay home and isolate yourself for 14 days.

Not sure what the border agent told you.


----------



## james4beach

I think government needs to add a curfew for people under age 25; these people need some legal enforcement.

The issue is that teenagers think they are invulnerable. It's human nature... we've all been there. So I think it's reckless to let these 16 year olds, or 22 year olds, out there unchecked.

I think I was in my later 20s when I suddenly realized I'm not invincible. Again, it's human nature. We can't blame them for it, but I think we need a curfew.


----------



## sags

There are so many holes in our self quarantine BS that it looks like a spaghetti strainer.


----------



## Eclectic12

agent99 said:


> Driving back through NY state on I-81, they have electronic signs at very frequent intervals.
> For example: STAY HOME - STOP THE SPREAD SAVE LIVES#FLATTENTHECURVE ;
> 
> In Carolinas, everything on highways still open, Virginia too, I think. Not sure about WV and Maryland as we didn't stop. In Penn, all rest stops were closed and ramps barricaded. Could not even pull in to change drivers. Fast foods still open for either drive through or pickup ...


Signs in NY state are new as Monday there were none that we saw. Restaurants were available for dine-in where parties were seated six to ten feet apart with one having the hostess offer hand sanitizer before being seated.

Pennsylvania rest stops were open ... though we used a Virginia one that had maybe ten people during our stop. It seems the truckers were able to get some Pennsylvania rest stops re-opened. https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/penndot-trucks-cornoavirus-rest-stop-ban-20200318.html




james4beach said:


> agent99 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ... At border, just asked about our health, advised we should go into self-isolation (no details of what that entails) and handed a form explaining Covid-19 symptoms and what to do if you have them. Just says to avoid places where you could get or pass on virus. Did take us 15min from when we arrived - just two cars ahead of us. But no big deal ...
> 
> 
> 
> You are now in 14 day self isolation, like me. At the airport the agent was very clear: this is not optional; you are required to stay home and isolate yourself for 14 days.
> 
> Not sure what the border agent told you.
Click to expand...

After everyone responding that they had no symptoms, the border agent outlined what was on the paperwork (i.e. symptoms and if symptoms occurred, avoid doctor's office/emerge plus to call the number provided). Self-isolation was outlined for if symptoms occurred instead of a requirement.

Even if we didn't plan on self-isolating, everyone employed had their employers say they had to stay away from work and self-isolate (working from home if possible).


Cheers


----------



## sags

A local gun store reported a huge increased volume of sales on guns and ammunition.

People are serious about protecting their TP stash.

My son said he was out today for groceries and many store shelves were empty. Don't know where he was shopping though.

He paid 66 cents a litre for gas at the reserve. That is our other huge problem that nobody is talking about anymore.

If I remember correctly, Western Select oil was down to $17 a barrel or so.


----------



## agent99

james4beach said:


> You are now in 14 day self isolation, like me. At the airport the agent was very clear: this is not optional; you are required to stay home and isolate yourself for 14 days.
> 
> Not sure what the border agent told you.


As I said. Just asked if we were well. Asked us if we knew about the 14 day self isolation. Yes, we did. Ok and handed us the bilingual sheet. Take care. 
That sheet says, PHA of Canada ASKS that you monitor your health and avoid places where you cannot separate yourself from others if you become ill. Etc. Only says to isolate your self from others and call health pro if you develop symptoms. You all must have same sheet.

We are doing the self-isolation regardless of what we were told.

Re what Eclectic reported about travel in NY. On Wednesday, it was as I posted for I81. Same for our friends heading home via Buffalo area. NY taking this very seriously as was Pa. Apparently NJ and others near NYC as well.


----------



## agent99

In the UK, seniors over 70 may/will? be required to self isolate for up to 4 months! 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873


----------



## sags

US is telling all Americans to return home immediately. They may be shutting the border completely down in the near future. Even Americans won't be allowed to return.


----------



## MrMatt

agent99 said:


> In the UK, seniors over 70 may/will? be required to self isolate for up to 4 months!
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873


The overall death rate is horrible, and it climbs very steeply as you get older and develop health issues.
Maybe with a treatment it will improve, but the odds for the elderly are a disaster.

Regarding treatments, it seems they are still feeling good about the malaria drugs, but the HIV drugs seem mostly ineffective.


----------



## sags

I am glad the wife's work is locking down and no longer letting residents go out. It keeps everyone safer.

The rules keep changing and it is creating problems. A worker could come to work if they didn't have symptoms. 

So a guy returns from the Caribbean and works for two days, meetings etc. and then the rules change and he has to go home for 14 days.

Hope he isn't infected or they all will be.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> The overall death rate is horrible, and it climbs very steeply as you get older and develop health issues.
> Maybe with a treatment it will improve, but the odds for the elderly are a disaster.
> 
> Regarding treatments, it seems they are still feeling good about the malaria drugs, but the HIV drugs seem mostly ineffective.


The good news is any drug that is currently in use that can help, has already passes safety testing. The only thing they need to check is contradictions to other drugs.


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> ... The rules keep changing and it is creating problems. A worker could come to work if they didn't have symptoms.
> So a guy returns from the Caribbean and works for two days, meetings etc. and then the rules change and he has to go home for 14 days ...


Did he return before the gov't starting saying international travelers have to self-quarantine?

For our group that returned on Monday - the employers (a LTC home, a hotel and a financial group) all said - stay home without pay/sick leave or work from home for fourteen days. There was no discussion of symptoms or no-symptoms.


Cheers


----------



## Mukhang pera

Eclectic12 said:


> stay home without pay/sick leave or work from home for fourteen days. There was no discussion of symptoms or no-symptoms.


Work from home seems to be the usual advice now. I was unaware that most jobs could be done from home. But to hear the politicians and health experts talk, anyone can do it. Are there work-at-home jobs say for restaurant cooks and servers? For cashiers and shelf-stockers and warehouse workers? For most physicians? For symphony orchestra performers? For those working on any kind of production line? For just about any service worker you can imagine? Can sags' wife work from home? Can surgeons set up shop in their basements and perform surgeries on their workbenches? At least they should have a good array of tools and cutting implements to hand. And duct tape and staple guns for wound closure and shop vacs for suction, etc. A mere bagatelle to make the transition to home.

I suppose in these times we'll just have to be creative about work from home. Walmart greeters can project themselves by hologram to store entrances, etc. Now that restaurants are takeout only, I suppose the cooks can work from home. Maybe just upgrade some equipment (move it from the restaurant). Maybe taxi and bus drivers and such will find working from home awkward, but if no one is going anywhere, those jobs will lapse into history, much like keypunch operators (a job that could have been done from home). It might just turn out that workplaces will become obsolete.


----------



## Eclectic12

It might have been clearer if I'd added "work from home if possible".

To be clear, the LTC and hotel employees don't have that option so for them, it's "stay home without pay/sick leave". The financial group employer has enough capacity to make working from home possible for the bulk of the employees.


I"m not sure so many words were needed to point out that "work from home" (WFH) isn't an option for everyone. 

Certainly for the financial group employer - management was keeping large numbers of employees from working from home who could have. The virus has changed management's attitude to WFH. Sadly, I expect that when the virus is dealt with, the resistance to WFH will return, with or without any evidence of problems or benefits.


Cheers


----------



## cainvest

Mukhang pera said:


> Work from home seems to be the usual advice now. I was unaware that most jobs could be done from home. But to hear the politicians and health experts talk, anyone can do it. Are there work-at-home jobs say for restaurant cooks and servers? For cashiers and shelf-stockers and warehouse workers? For most physicians? For symphony orchestra performers? For those working on any kind of production line? For just about any service worker you can imagine? Can sags' wife work from home? Can surgeons set up shop in their basements and perform surgeries on their workbenches? At least they should have a good array of tools and cutting implements to hand. And duct tape and staple guns for wound closure and shop vacs for suction, etc. A mere bagatelle to make the transition to home.
> 
> I suppose in these times we'll just have to be creative about work from home. Walmart greeters can project themselves by hologram to store entrances, etc. Now that restaurants are takeout only, I suppose the cooks can work from home. Maybe just upgrade some equipment (move it from the restaurant). Maybe taxi and bus drivers and such will find working from home awkward, but if no one is going anywhere, those jobs will lapse into history, much like keypunch operators (a job that could have been done from home). It might just turn out that workplaces will become obsolete.


Well some could use a VPD (virtual presence device) such as the Walmart greeter ... BTW, do they still have those? They are working on remote surgery robots which I'd imagine could be used for other jobs as well.

I do wonder if this will push forward automation in some areas. Fast food and grocery stores could be highly automated, probably eliminate 80% of their workforce and deliver goods right to your vehicle or delivery people (until autonomous driving is available).


----------



## Parkuser

...and now for something completely different

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/covid-good-news-list-accurate/


----------



## Prairie Guy

I'm pretty sure that Snopes doesn't have the ability to confirm anything out of China for accuracy. They're just repeating what the government says.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Eclectic12 said:


> It might have been clearer if I'd added "work from home if possible".


The work at home comment I made was not intended as a criticism of anything you said. It is simply that we are hearing so much of the work from home advice from so many sources these days. Of course, great idea, but my guess is that it is quite a small percentage of the workforce that can do so.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> A local gun store reported a huge increased volume of sales on guns and ammunition.
> 
> People are serious about protecting their TP stash.
> 
> My son said he was out today for groceries and many store shelves were empty. Don't know where he was shopping though.
> 
> He paid 66 cents a litre for gas at the reserve. That is our other huge problem that nobody is talking about anymore.
> 
> If I remember correctly, Western Select oil was down to $17 a barrel or so.


I checked today and my store was in much better shape. Eggs, milk, bread, meat all back in stock. A few areas still sparse, like flour and pasta, and zero paper products but I think people can survive without that for a few more days. Definitely not 100% back to normal yet but obviously getting there.


----------



## andrewf

Eclectic12 said:


> It might have been clearer if I'd added "work from home if possible".
> 
> To be clear, the LTC and hotel employees don't have that option so for them, it's "stay home without pay/sick leave". The financial group employer has enough capacity to make working from home possible for the bulk of the employees.
> 
> 
> I"m not sure so many words were needed to point out that "work from home" (WFH) isn't an option for everyone.
> 
> Certainly for the financial group employer - management was keeping large numbers of employees from working from home who could have. The virus has changed management's attitude to WFH. Sadly, I expect that when the virus is dealt with, the resistance to WFH will return, with or without any evidence of problems or benefits.
> 
> 
> Cheers


I personally don't like work from home (for me). I much prefer the ease of collaboration in the office. Not to mention teleconference/collaboration tools have all been straining under the loads. I've been using Webex or Skype for screensharing while on a group call on Whatsapp.


----------



## andrewf

cainvest said:


> Well some could use a VPD (virtual presence device) such as the Walmart greeter ... BTW, do they still have those? They are working on remote surgery robots which I'd imagine could be used for other jobs as well.
> 
> I do wonder if this will push forward automation in some areas. Fast food and grocery stores could be highly automated, probably eliminate 80% of their workforce and deliver goods right to your vehicle or delivery people (until autonomous driving is available).


You mean iPads on a stick?


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> You mean iPads on a stick?


Yes! And remote control iWheels if you can afford them.


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> I checked today and my store was in much better shape. Eggs, milk, bread, meat all back in stock. A few areas still sparse, like flour and pasta, and zero paper products but I think people can survive without that for a few more days. Definitely not 100% back to normal yet but obviously getting there.


I got most of what was on my list today. I just wanted perishable goods on the perimeter because I'd stocked up on non-perishables long ago. I don't go down the aisles but the ones I looked down were 3/4 bare. Very little choice for meat, eggs, dairy.

I actually swapped some eggs around to make a dozen out of the few remaining rejected cases. I got whole milk because there was no 2% etc. Lots of fresh produce maybe even better than usual

I didn't recognize the cashiers but the managers were the same. My cashier was a +60 harley rider w handlebar mustache, very upbeat and carefree. I assume they've hired extra temp workers and probably paying extra too


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> For a while you will be really worried and concerned, but once they survive, they will literally become the envy of us all. They will be immune.


Might be of intertest to you (and others) that WHO has formally started to collect data on this now. So hopefully in a while we'll have some clue on immunity (separated by age), secondary infection rates, etc. I gather that due to the spread pattern and timeframe they surmise that a re-infection wave could occur globally. In other words, if countries drop their isolation to quickly another global outbreak could be sparked and sweep over the planet again. Of course the risk of this happening won't be understood until they have more data.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Might be of intertest to you (and others) that WHO has formally started to collect data on this now. So hopefully in a while we'll have some clue on immunity (separated by age), secondary infection rates, etc. I gather that due to the spread pattern and timeframe they surmise that a re-infection wave could occur globally. In other words, if countries drop their isolation to quickly another global outbreak could be sparked and sweep over the planet again. Of course the risk of this happening won't be understood until they have more data.


I suspect the re-infection concern is from the ones that never contracted it, in the first place, but it is difficult to say.

I am a little surprised that we are hearing almost nothing from the survivors. How was it. How long were they sick. When were they Covid-19 negative again. How was that confirmed. How is life now. Are you drinking beer from a funnel now or just the regular way?

That kind stuff.


----------



## sags

Most people barely know they are sick and recover within a week. For those seriously ill recovery can take many weeks. 

Some lung damage is present even among those who recover quickly. Lower levels of oxygenation have been observed.


----------



## sags

Troubling news coming.

The statistics show that it takes 4 days for person A to spread it to person B. People don't show symptoms until days later.

So, people are spreading the virus for days before they show any symptoms, and the regime set up to watch for symptoms is not effective.

What that means is the virus will likely continue to spread until there is a vaccine. The best hope for the interim is for a powerful treatment option for those infected.

Keep your fingers crossed, one of the various medications being discussed with be effective and pass clinical trials.


----------



## sags

In the "WTF" news category.

The Canadian government is tracking 100 cruise ships with Canadians on board. This one ship has 347 Canadians on board.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/norwegian-jewel-canadians-global-affairs-1.5503437


----------



## dotnet_nerd

sags said:


> In the "WTF" news category.
> 
> The Canadian government is tracking 100 cruise ships with Canadians on board. This one ship has 347 Canadians on board.
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/norwegian-jewel-canadians-global-affairs-1.5503437


Yikes. These things are floating leper colonies.


----------



## MrMatt

California lockdown.
Based on the asymptomatic spread. If we want to slow this, we need everyone to isolate. 
Waiting for symptoms is too late. 
But I think isolation after symptoms is definitely better than nothing.


----------



## m3s

Norwegians were told not to isolate in their vacation homes or face fines and jail time

I'm surrounded by mostly vacation homes between Boston and NY so it's a topic here. People are coming out earlier than expected and it's straining supplies and potentially health care


----------



## sags

Come on treatment, come on treatment, come on treatment.......you too vaccine.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> I suspect the re-infection concern is from the ones that never contracted it, in the first place, but it is difficult to say.


I'm pretty sure the main concern is for those that didn't get it on the first trip around but that's my guess.



OptsyEagle said:


> I am a little surprised that we are hearing almost nothing from the survivors. How was it. How long were they sick. When were they Covid-19 negative again. How was that confirmed. How is life now. Are you drinking beer from a funnel now or just the regular way?
> 
> That kind stuff.


You can hear directly from survivors, even those currently infected .... it's on youtube of course.


----------



## OptsyEagle

m3s said:


> Norwegians were told not to isolate in their vacation homes or face fines and jail time
> 
> I'm surrounded by mostly vacation homes between Boston and NY so it's a topic here. People are coming out earlier than expected and it's straining supplies and potentially health care


Another really big problem, I have observed that we have right now is that if you are feeling fine, without symptoms, the primary concern on your mind, seems to be focused on not contracting the virus. The problem with that thinking is *how you feel today is the result of how you were 4 to 14 days ago*. How you actually are today you will not know for 4 to 14 days from now.

So, the problem with heading into the mountains is if you have contracted it, or if anyone you take with you has contracted it, you will find yourself sick very shortly without quick access to the medical services that you or your family may desperately need. That could be a deadly mistake.

This is a very important point, that for some reason I simply cannot fathom why many people seem to be missing it.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Another really big problem, I have observed that we have right now is that if you are feeling fine, without symptoms, the primary concern on your mind, seems to be focused on not contracting the virus. The problem with that thinking is *how you feel today is the result of how you were 4 to 14 days ago*. How you actually are today you will not know for 4 to 14 days from now.
> 
> So, the problem with heading into the mountains is if you have contracted it, or if anyone you take with you has contracted it, you will find yourself sick very shortly without quick access to the medical services that you or your family may desperately need. That could be a deadly mistake.
> 
> This is a very important point, that for some reason I simply cannot fathom why many people seem to be missing it.


I think that's one of the issues about Trudeau's call for everyone to return to Canada. At least in Canada, you would still have access to health care.

Like this couple in Cuba who want to weather the storm in Cuba, but medical coverage is going to run out.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/co...-snowbirds-florida-medical-coverage-1.5501955

OTOH do you balance the chance of contracting it on the flight/airport hub vs access to Canadian health care.


----------



## m3s

Local healthcare President/CEO confirmed 3 COVID-19 patients now in ICU and 2 days supply of PPE. Privatized health care at its finest

amazon US Pantry (groceries) is now gone from amazon. I searched amazon for acetaminophen and as expected all is sold out


----------



## Longtimeago

If you look, you will see that this thread was started on January 25. On January 26, I reported that I was already starting to consider this might affect my travel plans for the year.

The first post of the Diamond Princess being quarantined off the coast of Italy and positive tests came on January 31, from sags. And of course that saga went on for a long time until the Canadians aboard were finally brought back and isolated in Trenton.

Now here is another cruise ship, the Costa Luminosa and this is just one of many still at sea, which has had positive cases turn up on board. It left Ft. Lauderdale on MARCH 5. No one can tell me the 100 or so Canadians on board did not have a chance to realize by then that it was not a good idea to get on a cruise ship at that point in time. Only a few days after leaving Florida it had to disembark 2 passengers on Puerto Rico with symptoms and who tested positive. Then it had to disembark 4 more on the Canary Island of Tenerife. 

At any port where they stopped, anyone on board could have left the ship and returned home. Now guess what the 100 Canadians on board are going to be saying. 'Get us home government, send a repatriation flight. It's your job to get us home.' I'd give them a rowboat and say start rowing. I'd do the same with any passengers on any other cruise ship that started out after the Diamond Princess fiasco came to light. I have no sympathy whatsoever for any of them.

Every single person who got on a cruise or left on a vacation flight after, at the latest, the beginning of March, KNEW there was a risk involved. They self-justified their decisions regardless of the risks. Most of them did so because of MONEY. 'I'll lose the money I paid for it already.' Now that the risk has in fact started to bite them in the butt, let them console themselves with 'well I didn't lose my money' and leave them to fend for themselves.

What excuse do any of these people have for not getting off in Puerto Rico or Tenerife when they KNEW the virus was on board? 

https://globalnews.ca/news/6700976/coronavirus-italy-cruise-ship-france/


----------



## Mukhang pera

m3s said:


> 2 days supply of PPE.


 I had to google ppe. With the masses clamouring for toilet paper, I thought it might be _papier pour excrement_. Mais non.


----------



## m3s

Mukhang pera said:


> I had to google ppe.


CEO of the local healthcare (privatized in US) has 2 days supply of face masks, for example, and has just started to receive multiple critical COVID patients with underlying health risks

They are asking for PPE donations from industry. This confirms to me the privatization of essential services like healthcare is a horrible idea. They plan for profit not public good.


----------



## Userkare

Longtimeago said:


> ...The first post of the Diamond Princess being quarantined off the coast of *Italy *and positive tests came on January 31, from sags.


Just to be sure, don't you mean Japan?


----------



## MrMatt

New York shut down, along with California that's a huge number of people.


----------



## Longtimeago

Userkare said:


> Just to be sure, don't you mean Japan?


Yes, Japan is correct, mea culpa.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> New York shut down, along with California that's a huge number of people.


California is 40 million people in lock down. That's more than the entire population of Canada.


----------



## Money172375

OptsyEagle said:


> I suspect the re-infection concern is from the ones that never contracted it, in the first place, but it is difficult to say.
> 
> I am a little surprised that we are hearing almost nothing from the survivors. How was it. How long were they sick. When were they Covid-19 negative again. How was that confirmed. How is life now. Are you drinking beer from a funnel now or just the regular way?
> 
> That kind stuff.


https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/i-felt-f...es-what-it-s-like-to-have-the-virus-1.4861284


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt said:
> 
> 
> 
> New York shut down, along with California that's a huge number of people.
> 
> 
> 
> California is 40 million people in lock down. That's more than the entire population of Canada.
Click to expand...

Just saw a Trump news conference, a reporter asked what to say to those who are scared, and Trump insulted him. 

I'm no fan of Trudeau, but he is much more conciliatory, and I think Ford is doing outstanding. 

The US has many times the population of Canada in lockdown


----------



## dubmac

MrMatt said:


> Just saw a Trump news conference, a reporter asked what to say to those who are scared, and Trump insulted him.


Trump doesn't "do" empathy.


----------



## m3s

The US is about to be humbled. Not looking good for Trump


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Just saw a Trump news conference, a reporter asked what to say to those who are scared, and Trump insulted him.
> 
> I'm no fan of Trudeau, but he is much more conciliatory, and I think Ford is doing outstanding.
> 
> The US has many times the population of Canada in lockdown


Trump is not a leader. The US still has to rally around him (or at least the semi-competent people he hasn't yet fired from the administration), but America is going to pay dearly for its choice in 2016.


----------



## Prairie Guy

dubmac said:


> Trump doesn't "do" empathy.


Trudeau doesn't do competence. He waited until just days ago to ban flights from where the virus originated whereas Trump acted several weeks ago. It's about leadership and our leader is truly lacking in that area.


----------



## MrMatt

I liked the tone of the Ford conference just now.
But if anyone wants a reason why investors don't want to develop rental housing listen to his "plan" on evictions.
This no evictions and if you don't have the money don't pay rent is a disaster. 

I think they really need to figure out how to support businesses by the number of debtors who simply walk away from their obligations.


----------



## OptsyEagle

> Originally Posted by OptsyEagle
> 
> I suspect the re-infection concern is from the ones that never contracted it, in the first place, but it is difficult to say.
> 
> I am a little surprised that we are hearing almost nothing from the survivors. How was it. How long were they sick. When were they Covid-19 negative again. How was that confirmed. How is life now. Are you drinking beer from a funnel now or just the regular way?
> 
> That kind stuff.
> 
> 
> 
> Money172375 said:
> 
> 
> 
> https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/i-felt-f...es-what-it-s-like-to-have-the-virus-1.4861284
Click to expand...

The public need a lot more of those interviews.


----------



## sags

Glad he is recovering and many more with the infection get better soon. We need a lot of infected people to get well so that community immunity stops the virus from spreading.


----------



## Prairie Guy

"John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center."

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...tE91LOMMitM0w4h2kKU221e00ltNGJO_bd5rtAWSieB8c


----------



## Longtimeago

We now have to worry about returning March Breakers. Will they or will they not, respect the 14 day self-isolation request?

In our primarily rural and therefore low density of population county, our local Public Health Office has already received several dozen phone calls outing people known to have recently returned from travel and who are NOT complying with the self-isolation period.

In Toronto yesterday, hundreds of people lined up to buy two new video games that were just released. Not only did the store remain open to sell them, the people ignored advice to stay at home and avoid contact where possible. Buying a game was more important than protecting themselves and others. 

In the UK, a finally mandated closing of pubs and restaurants resulted in the pubs being full on their last night as people decided they wanted to have that one last night in the pubs.

I don't know why we keep playing with ASKING people to self-isolate and do not MANDATE that they MUST self-isolate. Quebec police arrested a woman yesterday who REFUSED to quarantine and tested positive. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-police-arrest-covid-19-1.5505349

Sometimes I have to remind myself that the average IQ is 100 and that means there a LOT of people with an IQ of that level or LOWER. Expecting them to act in a responsible manner and not be stupid simply makes no sense. You cannot blame someone who is stupid for being stupid. Nor can you expect them to act intelligently.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> In Toronto yesterday, hundreds of people lined up to buy two new video games that were just released. Not only did the store remain open to sell them, the people ignored advice to stay at home and avoid contact where possible. Buying a game was more important than protecting themselves and others.
> 
> In the UK, a finally mandated closing of pubs and restaurants resulted in the pubs being full on their last night as people decided they wanted to have that one last night in the pubs.
> 
> I don't know why we keep playing with ASKING people to self-isolate and do not MANDATE that they MUST self-isolate. Quebec police arrested a woman yesterday who REFUSED to quarantine and tested positive. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-police-arrest-covid-19-1.5505349


You'll always have the rule breakers or ones that take additional risk, it'll happen no matter what. There was a news report about a person out and about in Italy during the lockdown playing Pokemon. All the government can do it try to protect the masses. If most obey and use common sense the spread will have a good chance of being contained.


----------



## Money172375

I think people think they can detect the virus or a “dirty/unhealthy” person. They’ll automatically trust their neighbours, hairdresser, librarian etc. Reminds me of another virus where far too many took risks in spite of the available information....HIV.


----------



## m3s

Money172375 said:


> I think people think they can detect the virus or a “dirty/unhealthy” person. They’ll automatically trust their neighbours, hairdresser, librarian etc. Reminds me of another virus where far too many took risks in spite of the available information....HIV.


I noticed that people also associate it with Chinese who have poor hygiene and Europeans who live in close proximity and kiss for greetings. It's always the others and not us. I'd like to ask these people what they think of our superior hygiene and social distancing in a week

Everyone touches their face that's why your fingers are oily and leave oily prints everywhere. Everyone touches stuff that others have touched. Even with NFC payment I noticed I still have to push buttons on the machines everyone touches. Door handles, sink facets, shopping carts


----------



## humble_pie

Mukhang pera said:


> I had to google ppe.



speaking of PPE my groceries were delivered wednesday by a splendiferously attired personnage.

not a single millimetre of exposed skin anywhere. He wore a helmet. Clipped around his helmet was a brand new visor made of plastic polycarbonate (same stuff they use in bulletproof vests) which covered his face & extended to the back of his helmet. Underneath the visor he wore a surgical mask.

jacket zipped up to his chin. Rubber gloves with long wrists pulled up over the cuffs of his jacket sleeves

work pants tucked into sox.

normally they ring the bell & then go back to their truck to start hauling out the boxes of groceries. But this one didn't ring the bell. Instead, he built a fortification tower of cardboard boxes stacked up right in front of my front door. Only after that did he ring the bell. When i opened my front door it was barricaded, i could not step forward.

meanwhile the space personnage hovered on the other side of his barricade, at least 2 metres away. Gingerly, he extended the cc terminal at arm's length. Gingery, i reached out over the fortification tower to receive it, also at arms length.

.


----------



## Money172375

humble_pie said:


> speaking of PPE my groceries were delivered wednesday by a splendiferously attired personnage.
> 
> not a single millimetre of exposed skin anywhere. He wore a helmet. Clipped around his helmet was a brand new visor made of plastic polycarbonate (same stuff they use in bulletproof vests) which covered his face & extended to the back of his helmet. Underneath the visor he wore a surgical mask.
> 
> jacket zipped up to his chin. Rubber gloves with long wrists pulled up over the cuffs of his jacket sleeves
> 
> work pants tucked into sox.
> 
> normally they ring the bell & then go back to their truck to start hauling out the boxes of groceries. But this one didn't ring the bell. Instead, he built a fortification tower of cardboard boxes stacked up right in front of my front door. Only after that did he ring the bell. When i opened my front door it was barricaded, i could not step forward.
> 
> meanwhile the space personnage hovered on the other side of his barricade, at least 2 metres away. Gingerly, he extended the cc terminal at arm's length. Gingery, i reached out over the fortification tower to receive it, also at arms length.
> 
> .


Where are you located and where did you order from? How long did it take? I tried grocery gateway and Walmart for my immune-compromised parents and the earliest delivery slot they had was in April. Am I missing something?


----------



## andrewf

humble_pie said:


> speaking of PPE my groceries were delivered wednesday by a splendiferously attired personnage.
> 
> not a single millimetre of exposed skin anywhere. He wore a helmet. Clipped around his helmet was a brand new visor made of plastic polycarbonate (same stuff they use in bulletproof vests) which covered his face & extended to the back of his helmet. Underneath the visor he wore a surgical mask.
> 
> jacket zipped up to his chin. Rubber gloves with long wrists pulled up over the cuffs of his jacket sleeves
> 
> work pants tucked into sox.
> 
> normally they ring the bell & then go back to their truck to start hauling out the boxes of groceries. But this one didn't ring the bell. Instead, he built a fortification tower of cardboard boxes stacked up right in front of my front door. Only after that did he ring the bell. When i opened my front door it was barricaded, i could not step forward.
> 
> meanwhile the space personnage hovered on the other side of his barricade, at least 2 metres away. Gingerly, he extended the cc terminal at arm's length. Gingery, i reached out over the fortification tower to receive it, also at arms length.
> 
> .


They don't accept payment over the internet? Bizarre!


----------



## sags

My son just told me the stores are empty and he got some stuff from us. He ended up shopping at M&M but they don't have everything.

My wife seems to find stuff, so we will have to make another grocery run tonight after she gets done work.

Her work had a guy come in from the Caribbean. He worked for two days and then started coughing. They sent him home. 

I sure hope he didn't spread it to my wife and others or the old folks will be on their own, and we could get very sick.

The company has tried to hire more staff for some time but nobody is interested. They finally actually locked the place down so people can go wandering around anymore.

On the news that BC has 4 more nursing homes infected. Doctors are begging the PC government to implement a mandatory quarantine asap.


----------



## Mukhang pera

humble_pie said:


> speaking of PPE my groceries were delivered wednesday by a splendiferously attired personnage.
> 
> not a single millimetre of exposed skin anywhere.



Like this, perhaps?


----------



## sags

It was announced that Walmart is hiring, so if you are interested in standing at a cash register all day and hoping nobody in line has the virus......Walmart has a job for you.

At least Sobey's installed plexiglass to protect their cashiers.


----------



## m3s

humble_pie said:


> not a single millimetre of exposed skin anywhere. He wore a helmet. Clipped around his helmet was a brand new visor made of plastic polycarbonate (same stuff they use in bulletproof vests) which covered his face & extended to the back of his helmet. Underneath the visor he wore a surgical mask.



That's impressive!

All delivery services are overwhelmed here and asking for temp workers now, as are the overwhelmed stores. I'm on an app "Nextdoor" kind of neighborhood social media where people are offering and requesting deliveries.

I figure if my call to action should come, the dirty adventure motorbike can handle a few hundred liters of critical cargo. That way I can just keep the full face helmet, suit and gloves on.


----------



## james4beach

This seems like overkill when delivering to someone. The delivery person is mostly in their own vehicle (safe environment), then outdoors (safe) and has very minimal contact with a person. I can see the point of a mask for that brief interaction, but as I understand it, this is NOT the typical method the virus spreads among people.

Rather, most often there are infected droplets or some infected fluid which lies on a surface. Then another person eventually touches it, etc.

From all the health guidance I've heard, it does not sound like having someone deliver things to the home is particularly risky for either the delivery person or the recipient. Both should immediately wash or sanitize their hands of course, or the delivery person should wear disposable gloves and immediately dispose of them after the interaction.


----------



## Mukhang pera

james, your post is time stamped 10:01 here on the west coast. Is that not after noon where you are? Better avoid sudden death overtime. Time to go off duty! Have a good afternoon and see ya' tomorrow.:cocksure:


----------



## humble_pie

andrewf said:


> They don't accept payment over the internet? Bizarre!


it's my favourite greek grocery store, a tiny chain of only 3 small supermarkets. The best, the freshest, the biggest inventory, of mediterranean food products you could imagine. More vegetables, fruits, artisan cheeses than any of the big grocery chains. All kinds of special european treats you don't find elsewhere.

for some reason they insist on persisting with what looks like a student-designed website. It's a very pretty website but totally wonky & unreliable. I imagine they can't afford the cost of a professional website, since they don't yet have the online volume.

a dynamic woman is running their online grocery division but she's not getting the support she should be getting from the owners, who are 2 brothers who are the sons of the original greek grocer. I don't think the brothers actually get it about online ordering. I think their minds are still back in the greek/portuguese neighbourhoods of the 1970s when a grocer was happy just to get people to come-onna-da-store.

nowadays their 2 downtown supermarkets are crowded, congested small places with zero parking. Is why customers like myself order online, avoid having to shop the store itself. Their 3rd store is in Laval, a far northern suburb with plenty of land to park their trucks, maintain a warehouse, etc. Their online division is HQ'd in laval. 

it's an interesting business case study, since now is the time when the brothers/owners could make a huge investment to expand the online business. Could, for example, pop the $$ to pay for a fully-functioning website. No other supermarket chain in montreal area has their line of ultrafresh european market style products at such low prices. They are way better than Adonis, which has been the mediterranean diet supermarket fresh product success story in montreal.

but the brothers don't seem to be seeing the online opportunity. The dynamic lady has to struggle to get them to approve every single improvement in customer service for her online division.

still, i was very happy to see that the store had provided so well & so quickly for their drivers' safety, as demonstrated by my spaceman delivery personnage.

on the question of safety for essential services employees who are serving the general public - groceries, pharmacies, banks - one reads that Sobey's (Safeway, IGA, other smaller supermarket chains) is starting to build plexiglass shield barriers in front of their cashier stations. This is an excellent development imho.


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> This seems like overkill when delivering to someone.



on the contrary, there's huge personal contact risk for all personnel serving the general public.

most of this tiny chain's delivery service has been & remains restaurants, hospitals, shelters & other charities. The drivers typically lug the boxes of groceries all the way into the kitchens of these restaurants, hospitals, shelters etc. Thus they have close contact with many persons in all these establishments.

when they started doing individual home deliveries, they carried on in the same helpful friendly way (they're greek, remember?) you want your home groceries in the kitchen? no problem, they will heft the 50 kilos on into your kitchen if you desire.

multiply that by several deliveries an hour x 8 hours a day & that's far, far, far too much close personal contact in these acute times of corona virus contagion, IMHO.


walmart including walmart grocery home delivery is now saying it will leave all shipments at doors, their drivers will no longer enter buildings or interact with people. That's an intelligent development, IMHO.


----------



## humble_pie

m3s said:


> I'm on an app "Nextdoor" kind of neighborhood social media where people are offering and requesting deliveries.
> 
> I figure if my call to action should come, the dirty adventure motorbike can handle a few hundred liters of critical cargo. That way I can just keep the full face helmet, suit and gloves on.



definitely keep everything on. I think i'd change the bike gloves for disposable rubber gloves at each contact point though (picking up, delivering) Throw away the disposables & wear the bike gloves for actual riding. Then stash gloves in pocket or someplace at each delivery point, don a new pair of disposables.

weather should be great for riding the bike this time of year


----------



## m3s

humble_pie said:


> Throw away the disposables & wear the bike gloves for actual riding. Then stash gloves in pocket or someplace at each delivery point, don a new pair of disposables.


CBRN decontamination training is the worst. Surreal that it has become practical.


----------



## Eder

Heres a pretty matter of fact explanation where we are & where we are going with the Kung Flu without media hysteria...(a bit long)

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894


----------



## nortel'd

The federal government is unveiling a plan to have companies quickly produce medical equipment to cope with the rapidly multiplying cases of COVID-19 across Canada. 

After reading/watching https://nationalpost.com/news/gover...-and-isolate-not-followed?video_autoplay=true
National Post’s “COVID-19: Governments threaten fines, arrest, if people refuse to follow orders to isolate and social distance.” Article 

...I think the plans should also include retooling a line to make electronic monitoring equipment for police/community surveillance.


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> I sure hope he didn't spread it to my wife and others or the old folks will be on their own, and we could get very sick.
> 
> The company has tried to hire more staff for some time but nobody is interested.





sags said:


> It was announced that Walmart is hiring, so if you are interested in standing at a cash register all day and hoping nobody in line has the virus......Walmart has a job for you.
> 
> At least Sobey's installed plexiglass to protect their cashiers.


Well, people here might tell her she's nuts, but my wife decided to heed the call to arms, having heard that Vancouver Island hospitals are having some difficulty hiring and retaining sufficient cleaning staff. So she's now on staff of a Vancouver Island hospital. She could have kept herself safe (as safe as reasonably possible) in our remote location, but gave it up to do what she sees as helping. I hope she won't be labelled a mental defective who deserves to die. She's not a doctor or nurse or anyone who will be seen as praiseworthy. Just a lowly sweeper class paramecium who will go unnoticed. However, I support her decision, even though it could be a long time before she can come home. I take some comfort that she has youth on her side (to the extent that mid-30s can be considered youthful today) and might survive what she's likely to pick up in her current employment. Some of the cleaning jobs she has had to undertake are enuff to give a hyena the dry heaves, but she says it's just stuff that has to be done, so it's no big deal. I know I would not do it.


----------



## sags

Bless your wife and all others who are on a mission to help others. My wife went to work again today and was the only housekeeping employee that showed up.

This last stretch she has worked 13 days in a row, assuming she doesn't work on her next day off. They brought in a 2 person maid service today, but they aren't really trained on wearing protective equipment or working with isolated residents with flu symptoms. At least my wife was a nurse and knows how to stay as safe as possible. She directed them as best she could but it isn't the best situation. And yea...people have no idea what the staff have to clean up. They hire someone and a day later they say......I'm not doing that and quit.

Hope your wife stays healthy and safe.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Not sure if anyone has noticed this or talked about it but it appears to me that Covid-19 seems to be seriously influenced in a seasonal way, just like the regular flu. If you look at this chart there is no doubt that the infections are wildly more proportional in the Northern Hemisphere (winter climates).

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Oh...and Russia is probably lying to us.


----------



## sags

Perhaps, but it could also reflect population density. I hope you are right though.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Perhaps, but it could also reflect population density. I hope you are right though.


Could reflect lots of things, most likely.
1 Reporting
2. Travel Rates

Simply hoping that it is season like the flu, even though it's a completely different virus is wishful thinking.

More likely it's like other Coronavirii.

Remember MERS?


----------



## sags

Good way to start off a day lately........


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> Not sure if anyone has noticed this or talked about it but it appears to me that Covid-19 seems to be seriously influenced in a seasonal way, just like the regular flu. If you look at this chart there is no doubt that the infections are wildly more proportional in the Northern Hemisphere (winter climates).
> 
> https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
> 
> Oh...and Russia is probably lying to us.


Given that it successfully spreads in warm climates, this only buys us a bit of relief. 

Also keep in mind that the global south is generally poor with inadequate medical infrastructure. Much of Africa wouldn't be able to test for COVID-19 regardless of their infection rate. Australia seems to be keeping pace with Canada/US.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Could reflect lots of things, most likely.
> 1 Reporting
> 2. Travel Rates
> 
> Simply hoping that it is season like the flu, even though it's a completely different virus is wishful thinking.
> 
> More likely it's like other Coronavirii.
> 
> Remember MERS?


It's not hope it is an observation. The fact that it is spreading in the Southern Hemisphere as well, although at a lower rate, proves a change in season will not eliminate it. My only hope, or as you say wishful thinking with this observation, is that it might buy us more time for our healthcare system to adjust.

Not every observation has to be bad news.


----------



## humble_pie

Mukhang pera said:


> Well, people here might tell her she's nuts, but my wife decided to heed the call to arms, having heard that Vancouver Island hospitals are having some difficulty hiring and retaining sufficient cleaning staff. So she's now on staff of a Vancouver Island hospital. She could have kept herself safe (as safe as reasonably possible) in our remote location, but gave it up to do what she sees as helping. I hope she won't be labelled a mental defective who deserves to die. She's not a doctor or nurse or anyone who will be seen as praiseworthy. Just a lowly sweeper class paramecium who will go unnoticed.
> 
> However, I support her decision, even though it could be a long time before she can come home. I take some comfort that she has youth on her side (to the extent that mid-30s can be considered youthful today) and might survive what she's likely to pick up in her current employment. Some of the cleaning jobs she has had to undertake are enuff to give a hyena the dry heaves, but she says it's just stuff that has to be done, so it's no big deal. I know I would not do it.




your pretty, dainty young wife is a hero. Everybody keep fingers crossed for her, she will be well, she will come home safely.

it's interesting how the COVID 19 pandemic is bringing out so much good in people. Even some people in normally irascible cmf forum.

there's mukhang pera with his joan-of-arc hero wife. There's plugging along with her teenage daughters, elderly parents, job & husband to care for already; yet the Plug has also volunteered to help any shut-ins in her community who need help. There's optsyEagle posting his valuable socioeconomic insights. There's sags with his frequent medical updates. There's andrewf volunteering to donate blood.

the authorities in canada are making intelligent choices about how to marshall medical resources & scarce equipment, including insufficient number of testing kits for the time being. Communities & neighbours are rallying. Networks are springing up everywhere.

it's unbelievable how fast the entire world has seemed to be able to lock itself down. Yes the global economies are going to suffer drastically, possibly for years to come, now that people have re-discovered the forgotten secret, which is that happiness in life doesn't come from conspicuous consumption.


----------



## off.by.10

humble_pie said:


> Yes the global economies are going to suffer drastically, possibly for years to come, now that people have re-discovered the forgotten secret, which is that happiness in life doesn't come from conspicuous consumption.


You better hope they don't rediscover too quickly that it comes from relationships with other people...


----------



## dotnet_nerd

OptsyEagle said:


> Not sure if anyone has noticed this or talked about it but it appears to me that Covid-19 seems to be seriously influenced in a seasonal way, just like the regular flu. If you look at this chart there is no doubt that the infections are wildly more proportional in the Northern Hemisphere (winter climates).
> 
> https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
> 
> Oh...and Russia is probably lying to us.


90% of the world's population lives in the Northern Hemisphere.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> It's not hope it is an observation. The fact that it is spreading in the Southern Hemisphere as well, although at a lower rate, proves a change in season will not eliminate it. My only hope, or as you say wishful thinking with this observation, is that it might buy us more time for our healthcare system to adjust.


We all play armchair epidemiologist but there is such a large number of variables that it's basically impossible to come up with anything relevant without reviewing all the data.


----------



## OptsyEagle

dotnet_nerd said:


> 90% of the world's population lives in the Northern Hemisphere.


That would also explain it.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> We all play armchair epidemiologist but there is such a large number of variables that it's basically impossible to come up with anything relevant without reviewing all the data.


This is why I generally listen to the expert guidance and recommendations


----------



## OptsyEagle

Yeah, I am getting tired of trying to become a PhD in Microbiology. 

I had to get the equivalent of a Master of Finance and another in Economics during the credit crises. I had an electric hot water tank issue in a condo I was selling and now I can answer just about any question about those appliances and even more about their rental companies and contracts. I have also found out that if anyone you care about, especially yourself, has cancer or a cancer concern, one then tends to proceed to become way more proficient on those topics then one ever should have to be, outside of the medical community.

It really does become tiresome, after a while.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> This is why I generally listen to the expert guidance and recommendations


Not all "experts" are created equal.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Not all "experts" are created equal.


True and even experts state their opinions (sometimes varied) based on lack of data.

Of course for the "self appointed" experts ... ya, take that info with more than a grain of salt.


----------



## MrMatt

I heard Quebec closed shopping malls until May.
I don't necessarily disagree with all these actions, but it's really going to put a lot of pressure on people and the economy.

I just did a toysRus pickup. Ordered online and they brought it right to the front door.


----------



## m3s

I feel like many went to malls just out of old habits. Now online shopping habits will be cemented

Writing has been on the wall for a long time for b&m retail. Costco, walmart, grocers are essential but most retail is redundant today

I feel like many office jobs can also be more productive from home but not nearly as certain as online shopping


----------



## sags

Home delivery is a big problem for online shopping. It is only reasonable because people earn low income and illegally drive without commercial insurance.

Drive to the restaurant to pick up order. Drive to the customer location. Drive back to restaurant to pay them. Drive home and wait for next order. 

That is a lot of driving for $4 plus maybe a tip. Amazon drivers earn less than minimum wage and don't get a tip. They also put a lot of miles on their vehicle.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Drive back to restaurant to pay them. Drive home and wait for next order.


Online payments and they don't have to drive back or home for no reason.

Anyways we'll probably have autonomous delivery within the decade


----------



## dubmac

All facilities closed in vancouver parks - no more tennis, beaches are closed, etc. this may help to disperse crowds along the beaches. As more and more places close in the city, more and more were going to the beach to walk etc. Now that these areas are closing - hopefully more will stay at home.
https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/0...tdoor-recreation-facilities-in-parks-beaches/


----------



## like_to_retire

m3s said:


> I feel like many went to malls just out of old habits. Now online shopping habits will be cemented


Yeah, I was thinking that today, especially the fledgling industry of home delivery of groceries. Once people are forced into it, they might think that it worked out pretty good and will be much more willing to give it a future try.

I've used home delivery for most of my non-perishables for quite some time from both Amazon and Walmart. They've both been quite good at delivering the same or next day. I get things like coffee, dish detergent, paper towels, cleaning products etc., etc. I order enough for free delivery and usually wait until my coffee is on sale and put my order in then. It makes it cheaper than going to the store.

I haven't tried perishables yet, but have been considering it. InstaCart.ca seems interesting, although I'll bet the wait times now are a bit greater than normal.

ltr


----------



## m3s

like_to_retire said:


> I've used home delivery for most of my non-perishables for quite some time from both Amazon and Walmart. They've both been quite good at delivering the same or next day. I get things like coffee, dish detergent, paper towels, cleaning products etc., etc.


You should try amazon subscribe & save. 15% off for +5 items. I game it quite a bit (subscribe for 6 months and then just skip or bump up what I need, and just change the delivery date when I want something sooner) It's no rush delivery but for recurring items it's easy to tell when or order in advance. Extra 5% off from US amazon card doesn't apply in Canada yet though

This covers pretty much all my grocery store aisle needs. Now I just shop the perimeter for fresh produce, deli, meat, dairy, bread etc. Added bonus way less piles up in the cart, less to check out, less to bag, less to load into car, less to carry into house etc. I also only need Home Depot for major purchases. Most house supplies and products are available on amazon

No more looking at sales flyers. I have browser add-on keepa that shows historical amazon prices and can set price alerts. Walmart still has a lot of better prices but it's not really worth driving 20 mins, parking and walking around that zoo to save a few bucks


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Home delivery is a big problem for online shopping. It is only reasonable because people earn low income and illegally drive without commercial insurance.
> 
> Drive to the restaurant to pick up order. Drive to the customer location. Drive back to restaurant to pay them. Drive home and wait for next order.
> 
> That is a lot of driving for $4 plus maybe a tip. Amazon drivers earn less than minimum wage and don't get a tip. They also put a lot of miles on their vehicle.


Do you have any data to support your claim that online shopping delivery drivers are uninsured?

Amazon for example ships a lot by Canada post, and Amazon Flex requires commercial insurance, they also have a subsidy program in Ontario.


----------



## like_to_retire

m3s said:


> This covers pretty much all my grocery store aisle needs. Now I just shop the perimeter for fresh produce, deli, meat, dairy, bread etc. Added bonus way less piles up in the cart, less to check out, less to bag, less to load into car, less to carry into house etc.


Agreed. I use to do all my shopping at Loblaws years ago, and then I decided to try the online shopping of all the non-perishables so I could switch to simply going to my local Farm Boy for the fruits, vegetables, meat, eggs, bread. My Farm Boy cart is quite small as a result and I'm in and out in quick time with a lot better produce than Loblaws ever had. Everything else comes from Walmart or Amazon online. Actually, Walmart does a really good job and has excellent prices. I suspect they deliver it from my local store because when I order from Walmart in the morning, the boxes are on my porch in the afternoon. Amazing service.

ltr


----------



## like_to_retire

MrMatt said:


> Amazon for example ships a lot by Canada post, and Amazon Flex requires commercial insurance, they also have a subsidy program in Ontario.


Yeah, funny stuff. Through the week, Canada Post and Purolator deliver for Amazon, but on the weekends they still have to get their stuff to customers, so they use Intelcom. 

It's fun to watch the rundown types of personal vehicles jammed full of packages driven by some interesting characters who bring the package to your door.

Weekend delivery is a different world than weekday delivery. Either way, I get my stuff.

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> Yeah, funny stuff. Through the week, Canada Post and Purolator deliver for Amazon, but on the weekends they still have to get their stuff to customers, so they use Intelcom.
> 
> It's fun to watch the rundown types of personal vehicles jammed full of packages driven by some interesting characters who bring the package to your door.
> 
> Weekend delivery is a different world than weekday delivery. Either way, I get my stuff.
> 
> ltr


The Intelicom drivers are typically less sketchy than our actual Canada Post delivery guy. The stuff he says... well, he's darn lucky he's in a union.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Do you have any data to support your claim that online shopping delivery drivers are uninsured?
> 
> Amazon for example ships a lot by Canada post, and Amazon Flex requires commercial insurance, they also have a subsidy program in Ontario.


Amazon flex requires "personal insurance". That isn't commercial insurance which many insurers offer at much higher premiums.

Good luck if your personal insurance finds out you are delivering packages.

https://flex.amazon.ca/FAQs


----------



## Mukhang pera

I don't see the problem sags. The link you provided leads to this advice:

*What kind of insurance do I need?*
In order to deliver with Amazon Flex, you must have an insurance policy that permits the delivery of goods and merchandise. The information herein is general in nature and is not intended to include all relevant details. Insurance requirements differ by province. Please ensure that you carefully read and understand your personal policy and the requirements for the province in which you will be delivering to ensure that you and the automobile are properly insured.

Whether one cares to call insurance of the type described "personal insurance", "commercial insurance", "delivery insurance" or something else, it seems that Amazon requires appropriate insurance. Whether the the drivers actually obtain such is another issue. But if they do not, is that an issue for Amazon customers to worry about? Perhaps so, if Amazon takes the position that once the goods are handed over to the carrier, it bears no responsibility for loss, damage or non-delivery.


----------



## sags

I agree there is likely no issue for Amazon or the customer.

There could well be an issue for an Amazon driver involved in an accident if they didn't pay for commercial insurance and their provider found out.

I am surprised people didn't get a notification from their insurance company warning them not to drive for ride sharing or delivery services.

It is included in our insurance policy packet every year.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Yes, if the driver caused an accident while on delivery, the insurer would be entitled to deny coverage if no insurance was in place for that type of use of the vehicle.

If, on the other hand, the driver was not on delivery at the time of causing an accident - say driving to church on Sunday for example - it is unlikely the insurer would be able to deny coverage for that accident by relying on its discovery that the vehicle was sometimes being used for delivery. In such case, the loss would not have arisen out of an uninsured risk.


----------



## sags

Long story short.....I had my broker call and ask if I was using my car for any kind of work. She said the insurance company was asking her why our mileage had gone up so much.

When we got the policy we had put down driving of 15,000 kms a year. I was putting on 40,000 kms a year and they wanted to know why.

I never found out how the insurance company got that information but I quit delivering right away. A cancelled policy makes it difficult to get insured again.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Sounds like your car ratted you out. Better do some woodshedding with that car. Show it who's boss.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Home delivery is a big problem for online shopping. It is only reasonable because people earn low income and illegally drive without commercial insurance.
> 
> Drive to the restaurant to pick up order. Drive to the customer location. Drive back to restaurant to pay them. Drive home and wait for next order.
> 
> That is a lot of driving for $4 plus maybe a tip. Amazon drivers earn less than minimum wage and don't get a tip. They also put a lot of miles on their vehicle.


The driver doesn't have to go back to pay the restaurant. That happens through the platform (like Uber eats).


----------



## humble_pie

sags said:


> Home delivery is a big problem for online shopping. It is only reasonable because people earn low income and illegally drive without commercial insurance.
> 
> Drive to the restaurant to pick up order. Drive to the customer location. Drive back to restaurant to pay them. Drive home and wait for next order.
> 
> That is a lot of driving for $4 plus maybe a tip. Amazon drivers earn less than minimum wage and don't get a tip. They also put a lot of miles on their vehicle.




sags i think the above is an outmoded delivery style, for small restaurants & pizza houses, that may be already slipping into history.

the big online grocers use systems that sort deliveries first by postal code. You'll see how some grocer chains' carts don't even start until the customer has entered his delivery address with postal code.

it's obvious that these systems are grouping deliveries by zone/district/neighbourhood. The delivery time slots which a customer gets shown depend upon his postal code location.

as you know, payment is online. The driver can even be instructed - right on the address label - to leave the shipment at the door. Online grocers are charging something like $8 to $10 plus tax for delivery service.

when you thinggabbouddit, this is a much smarter method of distributing groceries than having millions of individual consumers drive madly out every weekend with their grocery flyer lists, then drive all over the city like maniacs to pick up items on special sale from different stores. That was yesterday. Nobody does that any more.

a centralized distribution system allows customers to customize their orders, but it still delivers by district. It means that a truck travels once from the warehuse to the district, then makes short zips around the neighbourhood to deliver locally. A single driver could progress on to deliver a contiguous zone the same day, but he will work district by district. Only at the end of the day does the driver return to the warehouse parking lot.

i don't know what will happen to the old-fashioned pizza home delivery system. I suspect it will either disappear or else delivery on a timely basis will become impossibly expensive.


----------



## humble_pie

Mukhang pera said:


> Sounds like your car ratted you out. Better do some woodshedding with that car. Show it who's boss.



all the insurance company had to do was access their clients' credit card gas station purchase data, which i'm sure can easily be bought if it's not already available for free via the insurance company's banker .each:

there's nothing they don't know about you. Friend of mine was developing enterprise customer marketing systems for clients of big banks & big telcos, 25 years ago. She likes to tell people that, when you walk into your neighbourhood bank branch to discuss say your mortgage, the banker already knows what colour underwear you are wearing.


----------



## m3s

I believe anyone with a VIN can get odometer data from various carfax/autocheck etc nowadays sags. Your stealerships and mechanics ratted you out


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I believe anyone with a VIN can get odometer data from various carfax/autocheck etc nowadays sags. Your stealerships and mechanics ratted you out


In Ontario you have to report mileage when you renew your plates.


----------



## Mukhang pera

humble_pie said:


> all the insurance company had to do was access their clients' credit card gas station purchase data, which i'm sure can easily be bought if it's not already available for free via the insurance company's banker .each:


In my case, if they sought to rely on my gas station credit card purchases, the wrong picture would emerge. I often buy 20 gallons of gas for the boat at the same time as buying gas for our truck. I also frequently buy diesel for our generator and Kubota RTV. And sometimes propane.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Amazon flex requires "personal insurance". That isn't commercial insurance which many insurers offer at much higher premiums.
> 
> Good luck if your personal insurance finds out you are delivering packages.
> 
> https://flex.amazon.ca/FAQs


That's absolutely not true. They literally say you must have a policy that permits delivery of goods.


"What kind of insurance do I need?
In order to deliver with Amazon Flex, you must have an insurance policy that permits the delivery of goods and merchandise. "


FWIW You can get a commercial use option on some personal policies in Ontario. I have one.


----------



## sags

Read down the Amazon site a little. It gets a little more complicated.

I think it best for people to just contact their insurance company to be sure they are covered, which is pretty much what Amazon ends up advising.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> In Ontario you have to report mileage when you renew your plates.


I think that is probably how they got it. We have a new broker now and a couple weeks ago the new agent said he didn't need a copy of my son's driver record. He could get that online.


----------



## MrMatt

US Lockdowns.
The following states, in order of population, have issued stay-at-home orders:

California - 39.5 million – started Thursday
New York - 19.5 million - effective Sunday evening
Illinois - 12.7 million – started 5 p.m. Saturday
Ohio - 11.6 million – effective 11:59 p.m. Monday
New Jersey - 8.9 million – started 9 p.m. Saturday
Louisiana - 4.6 million – effective 5 p.m. Monday
Connecticut – 3.5 million – effective 8 p.m. Monday
Delaware – 967,171 – effective Tuesday 8 a.m.

I hope all the industries supporting food production in ANY way are excluded. Could you imagine if the tooling, plastic or steel plants making packaging and containers are shut down?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Read down the Amazon site a little. It gets a little more complicated.
> 
> I think it best for people to just contact their insurance company to be sure they are covered.


What gets complicated? Care to point out the part that is confusing?
To drive for Amazon you must have a policy that allows you to make deliveries of goods and merchandise.

That's pretty simple.


----------



## humble_pie

Mukhang pera said:


> In my case, if they sought to rely on my gas station credit card purchases, the wrong picture would emerge. I often buy 20 gallons of gas for the boat at the same time as buying gas for our truck. I also frequently buy diesel for our generator and Kubota RTV. And sometimes propane.



u don't think they don't know all that?


----------



## Mukhang pera

humble_pie said:


> u don't think they don't know all that?


I would not think it likely. 

Upthread you said:



humble_pie said:


> all the insurance company had to do was access their clients' credit card gas station purchase data


When I get my credit card statement, for a gasoline purchase, all I see is the name of the vendor, such as Chevron, Mobil, or whatever, plus the date and gross amount of the purchase. So, it might show a purchase of $120 for example. That might have been $60 gas for the truck and $60 for the boat. But how can the insurer (or the gasoline vendor for that matter) get that detail? If they think all that gas went into the truck and used to to extrapolate how much I might be driving, they would come to a very inaccurate conclusion. On top, I doubt my motor vehicle insurer even knows I own a boat. The insurer also does not know that I have 2 trucks that we drive only on our island. Like all island vehicles, they are unlicensed and uninsured. We haul gas from town for those as well. So I would guess that more than half of the gasoline we buy goes into motor vehicles that are not our single insured vehicle. 

Anyway, here in BC, the same concern that is under discussion here does not arise for us. We can get a discount for driving under 5,000 km/yr. We are well over that in any event. The only other rating classes of note involve whether the vehicle is for pleasure use only, which lowers the rate, or if it's a business use, which increases the risk in the eyes of the insurer, as does driving all or part of the way to work on a regular basis.


----------



## andrewf

For what it's worth, I think it's unlikely an insurance company would surmise how much you are driving based on accessing your CC statements. Occam's razor explanation is that you got service somewhere that reported the odometer reading on your VIN.


----------



## doithuong

What worries me is that the health check and the cost of covid exams are too high. Therefore I choose to isolate at home and leave life alone


----------



## Longtimeago

Has anyone else noticed that the countries with Populist leaders are doing poorly in regards to their response to the virus? The USA, the UK, Italy, Australia, all have Populist leaders.

Whether you support our current government here in Canada or not, whether we have a Liberal government or Conservative government, we haven't strayed that far from 'reasonable government'. Thank goodness we live in Canada.


----------



## bgc_fan

I thought it may be worthwhile to read this article by NPR to show some of the similarities and differences between flu and the coronavirus.
How The Novel Coronavirus And The Flu Are Alike ... And Different

Keep in mind that the coronavirus comes from a different virus family than the flu, so you can't predict what works with flu will work with COVID19.


----------



## Parkuser

Man dies after ingesting chloroquine








A man died after ingesting a substance he thought would protect him from coronavirus


The man and his wife thought the ingredient, used to treat sick fish, could prevent the disease.




www.nbcnews.com


----------



## m3s

Darwin award


----------



## junior minor

Well, I read that they're partly starting to lock up (quarantine) entire states and here, in Quebec, well the construction sites are closed until may(at least) and so is school, until it's calmed down. I'll skip the info regarding malls, bars& libraries because it's probably counry wide.

Coronavirus: More than 42% of US under ‘stay at home’ orders — as it happened Boris Johnson urges Britons to ‘stay home’ as the UK government seeks to keep the coronavirus outbreak from overwhelming the healthcare system 



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/19/coronavirus-latest-news/


France, the _Netherlands has not imposed_ a "lockdown" on public movement.
Subscribe to read | Financial Times ( 42% of US locked) it's going to get ugly later
Grocery stores reducing the schedules, limiting purchase to two per person.


----------



## like_to_retire

Someone smarter than myself (pretty much everyone) will have to explain the rational behind all the stores and businesses cutting back their hours?

The math says that if the need for the service doesn't change, then less hours open concentrates people during that time. Will there not be more people in a store if they're open four hours as opposed to eight hours? Is that not a bad thing?

Heck, lets open for only an hour a day so we can jam every customer into the store at once.

There will be no less or more customers passing by the cashier. The lines will simply be longer at the cash with more chance of picking up the virus.

Please explain............

ltr


----------



## m3s

like_to_retire said:


> Please explain............


Delivery services?

Off peak hours were quiet in my experience. Seemed more like stores stayed open to compete with others staying open

I remember when stores were closed on Sunday and at night. That's still the norm in other countries

24/7 shopping is relatively new and unnecessary


----------



## Prairie Guy

On January 31, the day the WHO declared Coronavirus a serious health issue of international concern. A few days later clueless Trudeau send 16 tonnes of much needed Canadian medical supplies to China. they waited 5 more days to tell us:





__





Canada supports China’s ongoing response to novel coronavirus outbreak - Canada.ca


To support China’s ongoing response to the outbreak, Canada has deployed approximately 16 tonnes of personal protective equipment, such as clothing, face shields, masks, goggles and gloves to the country since February 4, 2020.




www.canada.ca


----------



## cainvest

like_to_retire said:


> Someone smarter than myself (pretty much everyone) will have to explain the rational behind all the stores and businesses cutting back their hours?
> 
> The math says that if the need for the service doesn't change, then less hours open concentrates people during that time. Will there not be more people in a store if they're open four hours as opposed to eight hours? Is that not a bad thing?
> 
> Heck, lets open for only an hour a day so we can jam every customer into the store at once.
> 
> There will be no less or more customers passing by the cashier. The lines will simply be longer at the cash with more chance of picking up the virus.
> 
> Please explain............
> 
> ltr


I can only comment on what I see around here. Way fewer people are venturing out, buying is mainly for essentials. As a drove home from getting some gas tonight the parking lots for open stores (Walmart,Superstore,etc) are almost empty. Met a friend at Timmy's before I went for gas, maybe 8 cars pulled through in 30 minutes we were there, normally it would be 75% full inside with 20+ gone through the drive thru.

So why limit hours ... simple, there isn't enough business to keep them open for longer.


----------



## marina628

I went to TD bank today for an appointment I booked on March 1.They now have a door man who opens the door (hitting the button ) there is always one person who is touching everything and that guy was at the bank today.It annoyed me that nobody said anything to him while he walked around leading on counters and even having conversations .We had to sit and wait 35 minutes before they were ready for us , I would have been happy to sit in my own car for 35 minutes than with these people.Now I will sit inside for 14 days and pray I never picked anything up


----------



## sags

When my wife left this morning a lady was walking by with her dog. She said "social distancing" and my wife said "yes". They stayed clear of each other.

Maybe it will catch on as a phrase people use to remind each other.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> When my wife left this morning a lady was walking by with her dog. She said "social distancing" and my wife said "yes". They stayed clear of each other.


So is your wife's name "social distancing" and they stayed clear because they didn't like each other? 

That make sense now why they changed it to "physical distancing" ... what's the odds of someone else having that name too!


----------



## like_to_retire

cainvest said:


> I can only comment on what I see around here. Way fewer people are venturing out, buying is mainly for essentials. As a drove home from getting some gas tonight the parking lots for open stores (Walmart,Superstore,etc) are almost empty. Met a friend at Timmy's before I went for gas, maybe 8 cars pulled through in 30 minutes we were there, normally it would be 75% full inside with 20+ gone through the drive thru.
> 
> So why limit hours ... simple, there isn't enough business to keep them open for longer.


Yeah, makes sense, although I can't see people buying less booze, if not more perhaps from being cooped up. Yet the LCBO cut its hours.

ltr


----------



## Longtimeago

like_to_retire said:


> Someone smarter than myself (pretty much everyone) will have to explain the rational behind all the stores and businesses cutting back their hours?
> 
> The math says that if the need for the service doesn't change, then less hours open concentrates people during that time. Will there not be more people in a store if they're open four hours as opposed to eight hours? Is that not a bad thing?
> 
> Heck, lets open for only an hour a day so we can jam every customer into the store at once.
> 
> There will be no less or more customers passing by the cashier. The lines will simply be longer at the cash with more chance of picking up the virus.
> 
> Please explain............
> 
> ltr


I agree, while demand will be lower, distancing needs to be higher. So even if you only have a quarter of riders on say a bus, you need 4 times as much space for them to spread out in. 

It's not just store hours that are being shortened, it is public transportation as well. Bus and rail have announced a reduction in services. To me, that smacks of being a business decision, you don't want to operate a sparsely filled bus or train or store, it's unprofitable. But that is NOT a health of the customer based decision.

The rational behind keeping liquor, beer and cannabis stores open is that in the real world there are a lot of people who are physically dependent on these products. In other words, addicted. That being reality, depriving them of the products they are addicted to would in fact result in increasing the burden on hospitals. Sad but true.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> I can only comment on what I see around here. Way fewer people are venturing out, buying is mainly for essentials. As a drove home from getting some gas tonight the parking lots for open stores (Walmart,Superstore,etc) are almost empty. Met a friend at Timmy's before I went for gas, maybe 8 cars pulled through in 30 minutes we were there, normally it would be 75% full inside with 20+ gone through the drive thru.
> 
> So why limit hours ... simple, there isn't enough business to keep them open for longer.


Did you actually go into Timmy's and meet your friend, did you maintain less than 2 metres between you? IF you did either, you should not have. No one should be 'meeting' friends now at all unless they are doing so in a way that they still maintain that physical distancing and are not touching things etc.

It can be done as the residents of a street in San Francisco showed.








Bay Area neighbors sing and dance in social-distancing block party


For a moment, it was like normal life.




datebook.sfchronicle.com


----------



## Longtimeago

marina628 said:


> I went to TD bank today for an appointment I booked on March 1.They now have a door man who opens the door (hitting the button ) there is always one person who is touching everything and that guy was at the bank today.It annoyed me that nobody said anything to him while he walked around leading on counters and even having conversations .We had to sit and wait 35 minutes before they were ready for us , I would have been happy to sit in my own car for 35 minutes than with these people.Now I will sit inside for 14 days and pray I never picked anything up


Why did you even go to the appointment? There is no way I would have done so any more than I would an appointment for a haircut. Now you will as you say have to "sit inside for 14 days and pray I never picked anything up."

People still don't seem to be understanding what 'non-essential' means in some situations. I cannot think of even ONE reason why a physical visit to a bank would be necessary at present. Even if you had to sign papers, they could have been e-mailed, printed, signed and e-mailed back. You could have met over Skype, etc.

People need to stop thinking in the same way as they always have. Find another way to do something if it really is NECESSARY.


----------



## sags

It is almost impossible to stay inside unless you have someone else doing stuff for you.

My son had to get his oil changed. It was at 2% and he couldn't delay any longer. So, he dropped the car off at the dealer but he still had to go in to pay when he picked it up.

My wife had to go get groceries. I have to do some business at the end of the month. Self isolating for weeks and weeks is easier said than done.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Did you actually go into Timmy's and meet your friend, did you maintain less than 2 metres between you? IF you did either, you should not have. No one should be 'meeting' friends now at all unless they are doing so in a way that they still maintain that physical distancing and are not touching things etc.


Went through the Drive Thru and met in the parking lot, maintained 2 meter distance.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> It is almost impossible to stay inside unless you have someone else doing stuff for you.
> 
> My son had to get his oil changed. It was at 2% and he couldn't delay any longer. So, he dropped the car off at the dealer but he still had to go in to pay when he picked it up.
> 
> My wife had to go get groceries. I have to do some business at the end of the month. Self isolating for weeks and weeks is easier said than done.


What do you mean your son 'had to get his oil changed'? There is no 'had to' when it comes to an oil change sags. There is a 'recommended' time or distance that car manufacturers give you. Let's say that is 'every 5,000 kms.' It doesn't mean you MUST. All he really HAD to do was check the oil level himself. If it was still within the parameters on the dip stick, the car can continue to run for any number of kms. It would eventually do some damage as the oil got dirtier and dirtier and so is not a good thing to do forever but it would arguably do no APPRECIABLE damage if he let it go for 10,000kms. I rarely meet the kms. recommendation on my car and do changes based on the time recommendation which is 6 months. 'Every 5,000 kms. or 6 months, whichever occurs first' is how it is usually phrased by the manufacturer. But even the time recommendation is not cast in concrete. 

People need to stop thinking in the same terms about things as they always have. He did not HAVE to get an oil change.

Groceries are a different matter. But still isn't something that should be getting done in the same way as it always has. Reduce trips by buying more at one time. That doesn't mean 'hoarding' it simply means if you WERE in the habit of buying roughly one weeks groceries at a time, buy two weeks worth at a time and cut your visits in half. Or shop online and have them delivered. All the supermarkets are gearing up to do more of this under the present circumstances. If you're lucky, there is no need to visit the supermarket in person at ALL.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Longtimeago said:


> What do you mean your son 'had to get his oil changed'? There is no 'had to' when it comes to an oil change sags. There is a 'recommended' time or distance that car manufacturers give you. Let's say that is 'every 5,000 kms.' It doesn't mean you MUST. All he really HAD to do was check the oil level himself. If it was still within the parameters on the dip stick, the car can continue to run for any number of kms. It would eventually do some damage as the oil got dirtier and dirtier and so is not a good thing to do forever but it would arguably do no APPRECIABLE damage if he let it go for 10,000kms. I rarely meet the kms. recommendation on my car and do changes based on the time recommendation which is 6 months. 'Every 5,000 kms. or 6 months, whichever occurs first' is how it is usually phrased by the manufacturer.


If it says 2% then that's the computer saying so based on cold starts, mileage driven, etc. It could have been 10,000 kms, but it's certainly not a basic 5000 km recommendation as you're suggesting.


----------



## Money172375

Agreed. Going over a few thousand kms....5? 10? Probably wouldn't do any damage. I religiously change my oil in all my car and small engines. But I do wonder......could We do less and put the savings into a rebuilt motor every 10 years. Oil changes are approaching $100. 2 or 3 times a year. Would be able to spend $2500-$300 on a rebuild. Most people keep their cars less than 10 years.....so is it all worth it?

have there been studies on changing oil less often? especially the new synthetics and semis. I thinking you could go years before causing any real ”fatal” damage.

its not like the old days were you could pay $30 for a change or do it yourself for $10.

woefully Off-topic


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> What do you mean your son 'had to get his oil changed'? There is no 'had to' when it comes to an oil change sags.


If there is a powertrain warranty on the vehicle then yes, you'd have to change it before it got to zero or risk losing the warranty.


----------



## bgc_fan

For a lighter note, some sports broadcasters are using their skills for more mundane subjects. It's worth taking a break from the bad news for some fun:
With Live Sports Gone, Announcer Offers Play by Play of the Everyday


----------



## sags

Good thing he got it done. The GM dealership is closing today until further notice. It is a 2018 GMC Acadia so keeping the warranty in force is important.


----------



## Money172375

cainvest said:


> If there is a powertrain warranty on the vehicle then yes, you'd have to change it before it got to zero or risk losing the warranty.


I‘ve got a question into Honda about this very thing. Stay tuned.


----------



## m3s

Money172375 said:


> have there been studies on changing oil less often? especially the new synthetics and semis. I thinking you could go years before causing any real ”fatal” damage.
> 
> its not like the old days were you could pay $30 for a change or do it yourself for $10.


You could get a used oil analysis. I just find it's cheap insurance to change it more often but definitely not as necessary today

Costs me $30 for DIY change. It's a turbocharged engine that is fussy on oil so I buy the best oil based on reported analysis results (happens to be cheap oil marketed for heavy duty equipment) and the OEM filter online.

The stealerships have convinced people to spend way too much on oil changes.


----------



## Money172375

m3s said:


> You could get a used oil analysis. I just find it's cheap insurance to change it more often but definitely not as necessary today
> 
> Costs me $30 for DIY change. It's a turbocharged engine that is fussy on oil so I buy the best oil based on reported analysis results (happens to be cheap oil marketed for heavy duty equipment) and the OEM filter online.
> 
> The stealerships have convinced people to spend way too much on oil changes.


Tell me more. A jug of 0w20 is $50-60 bucks here. Plus probably $10-15 for the filter.


----------



## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> Agreed. Going over a few thousand kms....5? 10? Probably wouldn't do any damage. I religiously change my oil in all my car and small engines. But I do wonder......could We do less and put the savings into a rebuilt motor every 10 years ...


I doubt engine rebuilds would be needed ... unless there's something special to Ford Escort engines. Recommended oil changes were 5Km but based on my driving and monitoring the oil, I changed it at 10Km for twelve years. Changed to a new one as the body was rusting out plus I had some hood damage (i.e. no engine problems). 

For the second Escort, it was sixteen years at 10Km. No idea how often my brother changed the oil for the next two years before it was rear ended and totaled.

IIRC there was also a Comsumers Report that said unless one was in a problem area and/or a terrible drive - their study said 10Km was more appropriate for most people.


Getting back on topic ... when paying for the oil changed - couldn't the son have avoided contact by phoning in a CC number from outside? 

I pay for all kinds of stuff over the phone.


Cheers


----------



## m3s

In Canada you have to wait for crappy tire loss leader sales (set an alert because they sell out on purpose)

In the US you can get a gallon for $20 on a normal day, even less for a 5 gal barrel etc


----------



## Eclectic12

I should have added that I haven't gone looking for studies on changing oil less often, I happened to run across the Consumers Report one. There may be more out there ... or not. 

With this new interface, I'm not seeing how to edit the post.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

m3s said:


> In Canada you have to wait for crappy tire loss leader sales (set an alert because they sell out on purpose)
> 
> In the US you can get a gallon for $20 on a normal day, even less for a 5 gal barrel etc


That's where living near the border helps ... when the border is open to non-essential traffic.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Eclectic12 said:


> IIRC there was also a Comsumers Report that said unless one was in a problem area and/or a terrible drive - their study said 10Km was more appropriate for most people


Most cars have computers that track cold starts, mileage, short trips, temperature, etc. The computer tells you when the car needs an oil change. When I put on a lot of highway miles it's over 10k, when I have a lot of short trips in the winter it can be half that. No reason to blindly follow a 10k rule if your vehicle has an oil change computer.


----------



## m3s

Eclectic12 said:


> With this new interface, I'm not seeing how to edit the post.


3 dots upper right of post


----------



## Eclectic12

Prairie Guy said:


> Most cars have computers that track cold starts, mileage, short trips, temperature, etc. The computer tells you when the car needs an oil change. When I put on a lot of highway miles it's over 10k, when I have a lot of short trips in the winter it can be half that. No reason to blindly follow a 10k rule if your vehicle has an oil change computer.


Mine clearly doesn't as it's 6K no matter what. I dug into the manual that says whomever is doing the oil change has to push some buttons to let the computer know the oil has changed and when the next reminder should pop up.

Good to know some vary ... assuming someone who profits from oil changes isn't overriding the notice.


Cheers


----------



## like_to_retire

Eclectic12 said:


> Mine clearly doesn't as it's 6K no matter what. I dug into the manual that says whomever is doing the oil change has to push some buttons to let the computer know the oil has changed and when the next reminder should pop up.


I've unchecked the box in my car to ensure my computer doesn't track maintenance items. I just change the oil when I feel it's needed. Usually around twice a year.
ltr


----------



## MrMatt

I want to relax and I really hope the cruise ship data is accurate and this isn't too bad.

But Italy is scary.
They know that 1 in a thousand has Covid19. 1 in 10 thousand has already died.








Coronavirus Update (Live): 115,549,034 Cases and 2,565,030 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




www.worldometers.info





I'm working from home, nice and locked away in my home office.
We're nicely stocked up and going to stay in for the next week or 2 if we can. There are few cases here, but why take the chance?


----------



## m3s

People said the Chinese are unhygienic
Then Italy was worse and people said they have dirty migrants
Now NYC is trending worse than Italy and they will make new excuses
Same thing around the world with the old stock mentality


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> Self isolating for weeks and weeks is easier said than done.


I have an appointment with surgeon at hospital in a week or so, to check up on how surgery done in January has healed. Secretary called me to cancel. He will call me at specified time and discuss. I guess I could email him pics, but doctors don't like using email for personal health. 
Have two more appointments coming up with specialists, but I suspect they too will be cancelled. Either by them or me - I don't want to go to hospital unless absolutely necessary.


----------



## sags

Prairie Guy said:


> Most cars have computers that track cold starts, mileage, short trips, temperature, etc. The computer tells you when the car needs an oil change. When I put on a lot of highway miles it's over 10k, when I have a lot of short trips in the winter it can be half that. No reason to blindly follow a 10k rule if your vehicle has an oil change computer.


Yup and with our GM app we can remotely lock/unlock the car, beep the horn to find it in a parking lot, check the gas level and distance it will travel, start the car, locate the car, check the tire pressure, and get maintenance reports. It is all monitored by GM's Onstar and in addition you can push the button in an emergency situation to get help. The car is tracked and monitored 24/7. It uses Onstar software and the antennae on the roof of the vehicle.

People must be talking about older vehicles because pretty well all vehicles have similar systems today.

The manufacturers know what is going on with the vehicle, so if an owner wants to retain the warranty they best get the oil changed before it beomes part of the maintenance history of the vehicle. The point isn't if it is mechanically necessary to change the oil, but not doing so will void the warranty.


----------



## sags

Inspectors found COVID 19 virus inside cabins 17 days after the passengers had left the ship.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Yup and with our GM app we can remotely lock/unlock the car, beep the horn to find it in a parking lot, check the gas level and distance it will travel, start the car, locate the car, check the tire pressure, and get maintenance reports. It is all monitored by GM's Onstar and in addition you can push the button in an emergency situation to get help. The car is tracked and monitored 24/7. It uses Onstar software and the antennae on the roof of the vehicle.
> 
> People must be talking about older vehicles because pretty well all vehicles have similar systems today.
> 
> The manufacturers know what is going on with the vehicle, so if an owner wants to retain the warranty they best get the oil changed before it beomes part of the maintenance history of the vehicle. The point isn't if it is mechanically necessary to change the oil, but not doing so will void the warranty.


They can't void the warranty for small delays in oil change intervals.


----------



## sags

An expert on the virus was asked when it would safe to lift quarantines and lock downs.

He said when there is 0 infections reported for more than 3 weeks.

Trump is thinking of opening up everything now. He is fed up with Dr. Fauci and doesn't want to hear from the experts. 

This is what he says publicly, but I suspect he is trying to blackmail the Democrats into agreeing with $500 billion given to Trump to decide where to spend it.

Trump is highly leveraged in his businesses. Some say his net worth is actually closer to 0 than $1 billion. His resorts and golf courses are empty.

There may be method to his madness.


----------



## sags

andrewf said:


> They can't void the warranty for small delays in oil change intervals.


I don't know if they can legally, but they can certainly use the opportunity to void the warranty and tell people to sue them.


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> Inspectors found COVID 19 virus inside cabins 17 days after the passengers had left the ship.


I read where a US Aircraft Carrier had sailors on board with Covid-19 even although they had been at sea for 3 weeks. There was the possibility that it came from aircraft that had landed on the ship during that period. But question I had, was - How accurate is the 14 day isolation? Is it the same for all of us?


----------



## agent99

andrewf said:


> They can't void the warranty for small delays in oil change intervals.


Nothing to stop anyone doing their own either. So long as they keep receipts and use approved products. I do three of our cars.

I don't mind paying the dealer for just an oil/filter change. Under $100 from Subaru for basic oil change, but required every 6 months or 8k km. Subsequent services are more $$$.


----------



## Parkuser

Glenn Beck says older Americans should return to work: “Even if we all get sick, I would rather die than kill the country”







www.mediamatters.org













No Abortions During Coronavirus Crisis, Says Texas Attorney General | Texas Scorecard


Many unborn lives will be saved as a result of a recent executive order.




texasscorecard.com


----------



## sags

Donald Trump said the virus will be gone by Easter on the same day the US suffers their worst day of COVID deaths. 

Today alone, 163 people died of the infection. Over 50,000 people are infected and the US healthcare system is falling apart.

Dumbfuckery is a gift to be cherished in the minds of Trump supporters.


----------



## like_to_retire

To stop a virus, don't we need people to be immune, either through vaccine or by the natural method of catching the virus and recovering? If the virus then doesn't have enough people to infect, only then will it die out.

If we keep everyone cooped up, and there is no vaccine, it seems this will go one forever. What will stop it?

If they finally tell everyone to come out of isolation and start the economy again, then a single infected person can restart the cycle over again because no one is immune.

So do we wait a year in isolation until there's a vaccine? There would be no economy to restart.

ltr


----------



## Longtimeago

Some of the comments on this thread and others indicate to me that some people here and by extension some people everywhere, not just in this forum, still do not seem to be following the advice to stay home and avoid all unnecessary interactions with other people.

Notwithstanding the silly sidetracking of this thread to discuss oil changes, the point is that we should not be doing anything that can be avoided if it involves interacting with other people. When I read a comment that indicates someone went into a store to buy one bag of milk, that is example of such an interaction. If you need milk or anything else, you do not buy enough for 2-3 days, you buy enough for 2 weeks, so that you do not have to go out as often and you stock up on everything else you may need at the same time. .

People need to get the message that past habits need to be changed to suit current circumstances. Stop doing things as you have always done them and start doing them in a way that makes sense today. One of the reasons Ontario has now closed all 'non-essential' businesses, is that people were still going out to places like clothing stores, etc. Clearly, they were not changing their habits. This is not a time for 'retail therapy'.


----------



## agent99

LTR,

Would you go out now knowing that you will likely get infected? And being in a higher risk age group, may die?

As I see it, the key is to test everyone and isolate those that test positive. Right now, the people working in essential services that are still open, like food stores, don't even know whether or not they have the virus, unless they get really sick and are sent home and tested. Otherwise, they can transfer the virus to the public at large, because we all need food (and other essential services)


----------



## sags

That is the conundrum. We are screwed or we are screwed. We are in unknown territory.

All of the scientists and experts say quarantine is the only option to buy time for a vaccine or treatment.

I think we have to trust the experts.


----------



## like_to_retire

agent99 said:


> LTR,
> 
> Would you go out now knowing that you will likely get infected? And being in a higher risk age group, may die?


No, I wouldn't go out, but if you allowed all the other younger demographic out they would build immunity by enough people catching the virus and recovering. Is this not the sad truth required to end a virus's life, other than a vaccine?

ltr


----------



## agent99

LTR - There is nothing that says you become immune once you have been infected once and recovered. Ever had the flu more than once?









Can You Get Coronavirus Twice? How Long Are You Immune After COVID-19?


Are you immune to the SARS-CoV2 virus after you get infected? If so, how long does this last?




www.forbes.com


----------



## cainvest

like_to_retire said:


> No, I wouldn't go out, but if you allowed all the other younger demographic out they would build immunity by enough people catching the virus and recovering. Is this not the sad truth required to end a virus's life, other than a vaccine?
> 
> ltr


To a point yes, it is likely the sad truth. Though with major outbreaks in certain areas containment rules will likely save lives overall.


----------



## Longtimeago

like_to_retire said:


> To stop a virus, don't we need people to be immune, either through vaccine or by the natural method of catching the virus and recovering? If the virus then doesn't have enough people to infect, only then will it die out.
> 
> If we keep everyone cooped up, and there is no vaccine, it seems this will go one forever. What will stop it?
> 
> If they finally tell everyone to come out of isolation and start the economy again, then a single infected person can restart the cycle over again because no one is immune.
> 
> So do we wait a year in isolation until there's a vaccine? There would be no economy to restart.
> 
> ltr


Yes and no like_to_retire. In theory, if everyone isolates for a period of several weeks, the virus will die out as it cannot GET TO any more people for it to infect. But that is in theory. It would require pretty much 100% isolation of ALL people. 

The second way to stop it is a vaccine.

Another theory is called herd immunity and that is the one you are describing, let enough people get it until it reaches the point it can't find anyone new to infect. 

Boris Johnson started down the road of herd immunity on the advice of ONE advisor, until all the health officials screamed stop and he reversed course. Unfortunately, too late for many people and as a result they have far more cases per capita than we do right now.

Now here is something for you to ponder re herd immunity. If you choose that path, it will stop the virus but you have to consider at what COST in lives. It will quickly overwhelm the healthcare services and you will have a situation like they have in Italy and Spain where people are lying in corridors dying because there are not enough beds or ventilators to deal with the number of serious cases. Think it through for yourself. Herd immunity leaves unsaid but results in choosing to LET people die PURPOSELY. You 'take the hit' to get it over with.

I happen to have a second cousin in the UK who is a nurse in charge of a Cardiac Arrest Team in a major hospital. When someone's heart stops, her team rush to the patient to resuscitate that patient, just like you see on TV shows. She received an e-mail from a superior telling her that 'if a Covid-19 patient arrests, do NOT resuscitate.' She received that e-mail by error. It was not yet time for that step to be enacted. Kinda like the false alarm that went out from Darlington Nuclear Station a couple of months back. A message prepared to be sent out at a future time when appropriate that accidentally got sent out too soon.

That's a fact though like_to_retire. If you follow 'herd immunity' you will come to that point where you cannot deal with all the patients that will need an ICU bed, so you have to 'triage'. Choose do we give this bed to someone who needs it following say a traffic accident and surgery who has a good chance of recovery or do we give it to a Covid-19 patient who may still succumb to the virus tomorrow if we resuscitate them today.

My cousin was understandably freaking out and in tears. She SAVES lives, she does not LET people die. She had already made up her mind to ignore that directive and continue to attempt to resuscitate ANY patient who arrested. The next day, she took it up the ladder in the hospital hierarchy and got it cleared up. The e-mail directive was rescinded but the point is it EXISTED and it existed because until Boris Johnson reversed course from that approach, it would HAVE to be done at some point because there is no doubt at all that going down that road right now would massively overwhelm the healthcare system.









What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?


Once enough people get Covid-19, it will stop spreading on its own. But the costs will be devastating.




www.technologyreview.com





The best solution is a vaccine and that will come when it comes. They're working as fast as they can to get one but it takes time. So in the meantime, the best course is to try and contain the virus as much as possible, therefore the talk about 'flattening the curve'.


----------



## cainvest

agent99 said:


> LTR - There is nothing that says you become immune once you have been infected once and recovered. Ever had the flu more than once?


The previous SARS outbreak studies showed a immune response lasting 2-3 years. 

Will covid-19 be the same? Time will tell once the studies are done.


----------



## like_to_retire

agent99 said:


> LTR - There is nothing that says you become immune once you have been infected once and recovered. Ever had the flu more than once?


Nope, not the same flu - that's how vaccines work.

ltr


----------



## sags

I looked it up. Viruses are constantly evolving, but it takes years to change significantly.

This virus is troubling scientists because it appears that it might be changing more rapidly.

They do say that often the small evolutionary changes actually hurts the virus's chances to spread until it evolves again.

The evolution is a continual experimental process for viruses trying to survive against immunization and drugs.

They often go latent until they have evolved enough to reappear. They have no brains but an incredible desire to reproduce.

They are not unlike plants in that regard. All of nature is driven to evolve to reproduce and survive.

If science could discover what internal process drives the need to reproduce, they could eliminate all harmful viruses and bacteria.


----------



## cainvest

agent99 said:


> LTR - There is nothing that says you become immune once you have been infected once and recovered. Ever had the flu more than once?


Actually, if it becomes available, a Covid-19 vaccine could become part of the annual flu shot.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> I looked it up. Viruses are constantly evolving, but it takes years to change significantly.
> 
> This virus is troubling scientists because it appears that it might be changing more rapidly.
> 
> They do say that often the small evolutionary changes actually hurts the virus's chances to spread until it evolves again.
> 
> The evolution is a continual experimental process for viruses trying to survive against immunization and drugs.
> 
> They often go latent until they have evolved enough to reappear. They have no brains but an incredible desire to reproduce.
> 
> They are not unlike plants in that regard. All of nature is driven to evolve to reproduce and survive.
> 
> If science could discover what internal process drives the need to reproduce, they could eliminate all harmful viruses and bacteria.


here it says the virus isn’t changing rapidly. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...6522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html

point being....nobody knows anything for sure yet.


----------



## agent99

cainvest said:


> Actually, if it becomes available, a Covid-19 vaccine could become part of the annual flu shot.


It could, but like the flu, it would have to be different each year as the virus mutates. Even now, there are apparently two different strains. One perhaps more virulent than the other.

The flu shots we get are a kind of guess as to just what flu virus we will be exposed to. And sometimes they are not right.

I don't understand much of this article, but it recommends more testing, preferably in-home. It also says that the virus mutates about twice/month.



> In his 19-part March 18 Twitter thread, Bedford offers way to do just that. One path out of the crisis, he says, could be via a massive effort to roll out in-home testing kits and drive-through sites to spot cases early on and then combine those with cellphone location data to trace all the previous movements of those who test positive.


In the UK, home testing kits will apparently be available within days: A simple coronavirus home-testing kit will soon be available to order on Amazon in the UK


----------



## agent99

Money172375 said:


> here it says the virus isn’t changing rapidly.
> point being....nobody knows anything for sure yet.


Very true! Especially those of us in isolation with not much else to do


----------



## Money172375

agent99 said:


> It could, but like the flu, it would have to be different each year as the virus mutates. Even now, there area apparently two different strains. One perhaps more virulent than the other.
> 
> The flu shots we get are a kind of guess as to just what flu virus we will be exposed to. And sometimes they are not right.
> 
> I don't understand much of this article, but it recommends more testing, preferably in-home
> 
> 
> 
> In the UK, home testing kits will apparently be available within days: A simple coronavirus home-testing kit will soon be available to order on Amazon in the UK





agent99 said:


> Very true! Especially those of us in isolation with not much else to do


from what I understand, traditional flu, or influenza, is not a coronavirus. SARS is a Coronavirus, and no vaccine is yet available. That’s a bit surprising and worrying given the many years they’ve been working on it. Here’s a couple of links just for reading pleasure.









Coronaviruses and Acute Respiratory Syndromes (COVID-19, MERS, and SARS) - Infectious Diseases - Merck Manuals Professional Edition


Coronaviruses and Acute Respiratory Syndromes (COVID-19, MERS, and SARS) - Etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, signs, diagnosis & prognosis from the Merck Manuals - Medical Professional Version.




www.merckmanuals.com













The 9 Deadliest Viruses on Earth


Humans have been fighting viruses throughout history. Here are the 12 viruses that are the world's worst killers, based on their mortality rates, or the sheer numbers of people they have killed.




www.livescience.com


----------



## cainvest

agent99 said:


> It could, but like the flu, it would have to be different each year as the virus mutates. Even now, there area apparently two different strains. One perhaps more virulent than the other.


Really depends on how the virus changes, multiple strains "could" be delt with by one vaccine. Of course next year there might be a totally new coronavirus ... nobody knows.



agent99 said:


> The flu shots we get are a kind of guess as to just what flu virus we will be exposed to. And sometimes they are not right.


Yup, they go on best guess for the year which I'm sure still cuts down on overall number of cases.


----------



## sags

The support package for Canadians has changed. The benefits are combined now. It appears that people over 15 who had $5,000 in earnings will qualify.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> The support package for Canadians has changed. The benefits are combined now. It appears that people over 15 who had $5,000 in earnings will qualify.


2020 earnings or 2019 earnings?


----------



## sags

All these proposed benefits are confusing people. Now they have people on EI and they are stuck on it.

At 55% of their employment earnings, some people will earn less on EI than they would on the new program.

They couldn't handle the influx in EI claims because they may have to close down government offices.

They should have known that was coming and kept it simple in the first place.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-income-supports-covid19-1.5509247


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> here it says the virus isn’t changing rapidly.
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...6522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html
> 
> point being....nobody knows anything for sure yet.


Sorry, there are multiple strains of COVID-19.








From Iceland — Patient Infected With Two Strains of COVID-19 In Iceland


It's been confirmed that an individual who tested positive for COVID-19 in Iceland has been infected by two strains of the virus simultaneously.



grapevine.is






There are other more reputable sources, but they are non public, and they're not releasing the data because it is a bit early to be sure.


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> ... They couldn't handle the influx in EI claims because they may have to close down government offices.


??? ... the push is to have people apply online and skip putting themselves as well as Service Canada employees at risk.

They also say if you show up at the office and can use either online or mail they will ask you to go home to use these methods instead.





__





Notices - Canada.ca


Notices




www.canada.ca






I have no doubt the volume has them swamped but other gov't employees that I know have been working from home two weeks now so I'm not so sure all that many need the office open.

Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> ...They couldn't handle the influx in EI claims because they may have to close down government offices ...


Man has this site gotten flakier than usual with the interface changes.

Anyway ... as I tried to post earlier, I doubt closing the gov't offices will make that much difference. The EI application process pushed people to use the online process to keep themselves as well as Service Canada employees safe. As part of that push they say that if one shows up at the office but can use online or mail services instead, they will be asked to go home to do so.

Plus lots of gov't employees who are friends of mine say they've been working from home for as much as two weeks already.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

duplicate post that wasn't showing


----------



## nortel'd

Longtimeago said:


> People need to get the message that past habits need to be changed to suit current circumstances. Stop doing things as you have always done them and start doing them in a way that makes sense today. One of the reasons Ontario has now closed all 'non-essential' businesses, is that people were still going out to places like clothing stores, etc. Clearly, they were not changing their habits. This is not a time for 'retail therapy'.


I am probably out here shouting only to myself. BUT CMF here goes .... 

Besides constantly washing your hands and not touching your face, I believe had people even covered their head 
with a bed sheet with two holes cut out to strategically fit over a pair of safety glasses or their own prescription glasses (so you are able to see where you are going), there would be a lot less cases of COVID-19.

My annual trip to Orlando to spend two weeks with my daughter and her family was booked for March 21 to April 04, 2020. Back in late January, in preparation for air travel and wandering around a crowded Disney theme park I decided, if I could not buy my own mask to protect me from all those 5 foot 10 inch or taller humans standing, sitting or walking near me who have been told by WHO “it is okay to cough and sneeze into your sleeve or elbow”, I would haul out my old Singer sewing machine, do some online research, and start making my own masks to offer my 5 foot 2 inch frame some protection.

The final product is a Hybrid N95 for outside of a hospital setting. It was modelled and made to exceed the University of Hong Kong design. The University of Hong Kong used one Kleenex tissue between two sheets of paper towelling and they did not pleat theirs.

I use three sheets of triple-ply Kleenex between two sheets of Blue Shop towelling. To prevent leaks, all stitching happens along the outside edges and is covered with strips of Band-Aid cloth tape. I sew in 4 horizontal followed by two vertical pleats to give a pouch area for air tight fit to nose, cheeks and chin and increase the breathing surface area. Additional cushioning is added along the top and bottom edges. Besides pushing the twist tie area along the top edge to make it fit snuggly over my nose, If need be I can also adjust the top set of elastics holding it to my ears and bottom set holding it around my neck to make an air tight fit. 

At the best of times masks are not very comfortable to breathe through. Once a mask gets wet it needs to be changed out for a dry one. My mask set up should be good for a 20 minute shopping spree. To make breathing easier, I blow my nose before I put my mask on. I also avoid talking to keep moisture buildup down and I try to concentrate on filling my shopping cart.

As an added level of protection I also wear a pair of safety glasses to protect my eyes and toque to protect my head. I also wear an outer layer of loose fitting clothing that is easily removed. A pair of shoes is set aside as part of my gear to be put on and taken off outside of my residence and left there until needed. Call me paranoid but all the groceries are sanitized outside before they are brought inside our home.

After each use, everything is removed in the parking lot and stored in the trunk of our car. The safety glasses and masks are placed in their own Ziploc baggie and my outer layer of clothing and toque are placed in a garbage bag. Once I am at home the safety glasses get washed with soap and water and the outer clothing and toque are washed and dried and set aside for the next venture into a public domain. The glasses could be sprayed with 70% alcohol. The mask while holding it by its top elastics, is sprayed on its outside and inside surface to saturation with 70% alcohol then allowed to dry outside on my back deck. I have yet to put one of the masks in the oven at 180 F. A microwave cannot be used because of the twist ties used along the top edge to help form mask to ones nose.

My trip to Orlando was not to be... I cancelled my flight to Orlando on March 11. 2020 for travel rewards and WestJet cancelled my return flight on March 24 for travel rewards. By March 20, 2020 at 11:59 pm the US/Canada border was closed to tourism......


Good luck and think and stay safe


----------



## m3s

nortel'd said:


> Besides constantly washing your hands and not touching your face, I believe had people even covered their head
> with a bed sheet with two holes cut out to strategically fit over a pair of safety glasses or their own prescription glasses (so you are able to see where you are going), there would be a lot less cases of COVID-19.


Heh didn't Quebec just ban face coverings

Saying don't touch your face is like saying don't blink. Everyone touches their face subconsciously

We just need those cones like they put on dogs so they can't chew on themselves.


----------



## Longtimeago

Apparently, border towns are seeing Snowbird RVs parked at places like Walmart. While some might only be parking to sleep enroute to home which I see no problem with, there is no doubt others are parking to shop for supplies to have when they get home. Yet another instance of selfish behaviour that puts other people at risk.

In a crisis, you always find it brings out the BEST in some people and the WORST in some people. It has been reported and confirmed that some people flying back to Canada who are showing symptoms and are therefore not to be allowed on the planes, are hiding their symptoms and boarding the planes.

As a result, we are now entering the next phase of enforcement of the stay at home advice. Police are now being given the power to arrest those who will not comply and both fines and imprisonment are possible. 

Those now arriving at the 4 designated airports now have to self-isolate in those 4 cities, unless they have a car there that they can drive straight home with no stops along the way. 

We are still hearing about people stuck overseas and some are still expecting our government to do something about getting them home. This expectation of an entitlement is even being agreed with by some people here in Canada. People need to realize that the rights of ANY traveller at ANY time, are not what most think they are. When anyone travels, they are responsible for THEMSELVES once they leave Canada. Our government has very little responsibility for what happens to us in another country and by LAW, those are clearly defined. There is no LAW that says anyone has a right to expect to be repatriated. 

I have sympathy for those who want to return but cannot, however it does not give them the RIGHT to hide symptoms in order to get on a plane. When they say, 'It's the only way I can get home', they need to be told they have no RIGHT to get home and the health of OTHERS is more important than the individual. When someone chooses to be in another country, they are responsible for themselves and the consequences of their decision to travel to anywhere.


----------



## Longtimeago

nortel'd said:


> I am probably out here shouting only to myself. BUT CMF here goes ......................................


Nortel'd, while your efforts are quite complete, I would say your original objective was flawed. You appear to have started from the objective of, 'How can I go shopping for groceries and protect myself from the virus as completely as possible?' You have come up with quite a detailed plan for that.

However, what if you change the original objective to, 'How can I get groceries into my home and protect myself from the virus as completely as possible?' Different objective, different answer perhaps.

I can stay at home and order groceries delivered from my local supermarket. While in some locations, delivery times are perhaps as much as 10 days from order, it is not that difficult to plan even 10 days ahead in regards to what you will need to order. Pretty much all supermarkets are now delivering and only the most remote locations will not now have such service available. If you do that, there is no need for most of the precautions you are now taking. 

When the groceries are delivered to your door, you can still wear gloves, disinfect each item as you unpack it, dispose of the gloves etc. and then give your hands a good washing. In other words, only the final steps are needed.

I need to go for groceries is OLD thinking. I need groceries DELIVERED is current thinking.


----------



## agent99

I found that I had three N95 masks in my workshop! Don't have a use for them - yet


----------



## Beaver101

^ Unless you're sick, disabled, or under mandated quarantine or live in the boondocks, I don't see why you can't go to the "supermarket" to buy your "necessities" and follow the "social distancing" to mitigate your risk of catching the virus. Right now, retailers (particularly grocers)' online delivery systems is overloaded and the waiting period to get your "foods" is like a week. Now if you don't mind or can wait that long, then ... by all means.


----------



## sags

Not much point for people to sub-contract as temporary delivery drivers when they can sit at home and collect $2000 a month.

Everyone wants drivers, but nobody wants to supply the vehicles or pay the expenses plus a decent wage.

Interesting that Uber has fought against having their drivers considered as employees since their inception. 

Now they want the government to identify the drivers as employees so Uber can access government funds to keep their drivers on the payroll. 

Otherwise the drivers are going somewhere else and Uber has no business model.


----------



## Longtimeago

The media are not focusing enough on what people are doing wrong. Instead we get 'cutesy' stories about how a family is spending their time in isolation, etc.

There are IMPORTANT messages they could be getting out to the public with their airtime. For example, I have learned that people are still showing up at our local hospital ER department when they think they may have the virus. This means, hospital staff are having to use up PPE, masks etc. when dealing with these people.

The message to not go to ER was being told several weeks ago and is no longer 'news' it appears. If someone has symptoms, the first thing they should be doing is making a phone call. Either to their doctor or Public Health. They will then be directed based on that conversation as to what they should do next. In most cases, unless the person is older or has underlying medical conditions, the advice will be to self-isolate unless their symptoms become severe.

In some cases, they will be told to go to a Assessment Centre. In our area, that is right across the street from the local hospital. Again, it is not for people who have no real symptoms and people should only be going their AFTER having had a phone consultation with their doctor or Public Health who will advise them if they should go to an Assessment Centre.

The media should be explaining this to people REPEATEDLY until people get the message clearly understood in their minds. What do they expect the hospital to do for them anyway? There is no cure, there is no vaccine. There is nothing a hospital can do for them unless they are at the point of serious issues which require intubation and a ventilator to help them breath. 

If you get the virus you are going to be far more comfortable at home than in a hospital bed while it runs its course, UNLESS you get to the real serious level. The media and each of us, should be spreading that message to everyone we talk to. STAY HOME.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Not much point for people to sub-contract as temporary delivery drivers when they can sit at home and collect $2000 a month.


Sags. Please remember you said that when we eventually get back to Universal Income debates and others just like it. I have been saying what you just said above, to deaf ears I will add, for a very long time.


----------



## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Unless you're sick, disabled, or under mandated quarantine or live in the boondocks, I don't see why you can't go to the "supermarket" to buy your "necessities" and follow the "social distancing" to mitigate your risk of catching the virus. Right now, retailers (particularly grocers)' online delivery systems is overloaded and the waiting period to get your "foods" is like a week. Now if you don't mind or can wait that long, then ... by all means.


It is that kind of thinking which will help to SPREAD the virus Beaver101. Every interaction, regardless of what precautions anyone takes, adds to the possibility of spread. That is why we hear the words, 'necessary' and 'non-essential' being used in all the advice we are being given.

You 'don't see why you can't go to the supermarket'. That's why, because when you do, YOU endanger others health. It's SELFISH to go if there is a way to get your groceries WITHOUT going. There is a way to get them without going, have them delivered.

As for 'if you don't mind or can wait that long'. Stop thinking like it was before this started. If you have to wait a week for delivery then WAIT a week. Learn to plan ahead and order today what you will need next week. Or is that too difficult for you to do? I MIND if YOU instead decide to put other people at RISK by acting in a way that is irresponsible, simply because you prefer to.


----------



## sags

The Province of BC is paying renters $500 a month for a few months. I would rather see the return of last month's rent, so the renter uses their own money.


OptsyEagle said:


> Sags. Please remember you said that when we eventually get back to Universal Income debates and others just like it. I have been saying what you just said above, to deaf ears I will add, for a very long time.


The problem isn't government benefits. It is wages that pay well below government benefits.

In any event, we now have a mish mash assortment of universal basic income programs. We have socialism with a capital S.

The US just approved the biggest socialist benefit program in the history of mankind, but you know........they hate socialism.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Not much point for people to sub-contract as temporary delivery drivers when they can sit at home and collect $2000 a month.
> 
> Everyone wants drivers, but nobody wants to supply the vehicles or pay the expenses plus a decent wage.
> 
> Interesting that Uber has fought against having their drivers considered as employees since their inception.
> 
> Now they want the government to identify the drivers as employees so Uber can access government funds to keep their drivers on the payroll.
> 
> Otherwise the drivers are going somewhere else and Uber has no business model.


Not everything revolves around MONEY. Some people are doing things to HELP, not for monetary reward. In the UK, they asked for volunteers to help with the Health Service, retired doctors, nurses, etc. etc. They had a target of 250,000 and in fact have got 500,000 volunteers responding to their appeal. 








Coronavirus: Thousands volunteer to help NHS with vulnerable


The role of volunteers will be "absolutely crucial" in fighting coronavirus, says Boris Johnson.



www.bbc.com





Here in Canada, people have also been volunteering to help wherever and in whatever way they can. I find the first sentence of your comment, disgusting. 'Not much point'. There is only 'not much point' if all that matters to you is how much money you can get out of it.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> The media are not focusing enough on what people are doing wrong. Instead we get 'cutesy' stories about how a family is spending their time in isolation, etc.
> 
> There are IMPORTANT messages they could be getting out to the public with their airtime. For example, I have learned that people are still showing up at our local hospital ER department when they think they may have the virus. This means, hospital staff are having to use up PPE, masks etc. when dealing with these people.
> 
> The message to not go to ER was being told several weeks ago and is no longer 'news' it appears. If someone has symptoms, the first thing they should be doing is making a phone call. Either to their doctor or Public Health. They will then be directed based on that conversation as to what they should do next. In most cases, unless the person is older or has underlying medical conditions, the advice will be to self-isolate unless their symptoms become severe.
> 
> In some cases, they will be told to go to a Assessment Centre. In our area, that is right across the street from the local hospital. Again, it is not for people who have no real symptoms and people should only be going their AFTER having had a phone consultation with their doctor or Public Health who will advise them if they should go to an Assessment Centre.
> 
> The media should be explaining this to people REPEATEDLY until people get the message clearly understood in their minds. What do they expect the hospital to do for them anyway? There is no cure, there is no vaccine. There is nothing a hospital can do for them unless they are at the point of serious issues which require intubation and a ventilator to help them breath.
> 
> If you get the virus you are going to be far more comfortable at home than in a hospital bed while it runs its course, UNLESS you get to the real serious level. The media and each of us, should be spreading that message to everyone we talk to. STAY HOME.


Shouldn't they be screening people outside the ER prior to entry? Could use a drive-through style two way speaker. Anyone who is there because of COVID fears, GTFO until you are tested elsewhere.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> Sags. Please remember you said that when we eventually get back to Universal Income debates and others just like it. I have been saying what you just said above, to deaf ears I will add, for a very long time.


Under UBI, you could be a delivery driver and still collect the 2k. That is the whole point. $2k only if you don't work is like traditional welfare, not UBI.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> It is that kind of thinking which will help to SPREAD the virus Beaver101. Every interaction, regardless of what precautions anyone takes, adds to the possibility of spread. That is why we hear the words, 'necessary' and 'non-essential' being used in all the advice we are being given.
> 
> You 'don't see why you can't go to the supermarket'. That's why, because when you do, YOU endanger others health. It's SELFISH to go if there is a way to get your groceries WITHOUT going. There is a way to get them without going, have them delivered.
> 
> As for 'if you don't mind or can wait that long'. Stop thinking like it was before this started. If you have to wait a week for delivery then WAIT a week. Learn to plan ahead and order today what you will need next week. Or is that too difficult for you to do? I MIND if YOU instead decide to put other people at RISK by acting in a way that is irresponsible, simply because you prefer to.


Galen sent a note last week asking that if you are healthy and not self-isolating, please come in to shop to leave pick-up and delivery available for those who need it.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Nortel'd, while your efforts are quite complete, I would say your original objective was flawed. You appear to have started from the objective of, 'How can I go shopping for groceries and protect myself from the virus as completely as possible?' You have come up with quite a detailed plan for that.
> 
> However, what if you change the original objective to, 'How can I get groceries into my home and protect myself from the virus as completely as possible?' Different objective, different answer perhaps.
> 
> I can stay at home and order groceries delivered from my local supermarket. While in some locations, delivery times are perhaps as much as 10 days from order, it is not that difficult to plan even 10 days ahead in regards to what you will need to order. Pretty much all supermarkets are now delivering and only the most remote locations will not now have such service available. If you do that, there is no need for most of the precautions you are now taking.
> 
> When the groceries are delivered to your door, you can still wear gloves, disinfect each item as you unpack it, dispose of the gloves etc. and then give your hands a good washing. In other words, only the final steps are needed.
> 
> I need to go for groceries is OLD thinking. I need groceries DELIVERED is current thinking.


i think we will face a short term (maybe a few weeks or months) of not getting adequate delivery times. I’m already seeing delays of almost 3 weeks....at grocery gateway for example. As the cases and deaths rise in Canada, more will turn to online delivery and the ramp up by the grocers won’t happen in time. We have 2 scheduled pickups at differing grocers (sat and Wednesday). Hoping the toilet paper we ordered at one of them is actually available.


----------



## agent99

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Unless you're sick, disabled, or under mandated quarantine or live in the boondocks, I don't see why you can't go to the "supermarket" to buy your "necessities" and follow the "social distancing" to mitigate your risk of catching the virus. Right now, retailers (particularly grocers)' online delivery systems is overloaded and the waiting period to get your "foods" is like a week. Now if you don't mind or can wait that long, then ... by all means.


Don't understand. For those who are not "sick, disabled, or under mandated quarantine or live in the boondocks", there is nothing to stop them going to buy groceries and other necessities, is there?

We are in self isolation and would be under mandated quarantine if we had returned later than we did. Maybe they should have clarified that, but we act as though we are in mandatory quarantine. We get grocery deliveries when we want them. May be an advantage in living in a smaller town? 

We don't plan on doing anything different once our 14 days is up.


----------



## nortel'd

Longtimeago said:


> Nortel'd, while your efforts are quite complete, I would say your original objective was flawed. You appear to have started from the objective of, 'How can I go shopping for groceries and protect myself from the virus as completely as possible?' You have come up with quite a detailed plan for that.
> .


Making masks had nothing to do with shopping. I started making them because ... Back in late January, in preparation for air travel and wandering around a crowded Disney theme park I decided, if I could not buy my own mask to protect me from all those 5 foot 10 inch or taller humans standing, sitting or walking near me who have been told by WHO “it is okay to cough and sneeze into your sleeve or elbow”, I would haul out my old Singer sewing machine, do some online research, and start making my own masks to offer my 5 foot 2 inch frame some protection.


----------



## sags

Longtimeago said:


> Not everything revolves around MONEY. Some people are doing things to HELP, not for monetary reward. In the UK, they asked for volunteers to help with the Health Service, retired doctors, nurses, etc. etc. They had a target of 250,000 and in fact have got 500,000 volunteers responding to their appeal.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: Thousands volunteer to help NHS with vulnerable
> 
> 
> The role of volunteers will be "absolutely crucial" in fighting coronavirus, says Boris Johnson.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here in Canada, people have also been volunteering to help wherever and in whatever way they can. I find the first sentence of your comment, disgusting. 'Not much point'. There is only 'not much point' if all that matters to you is how much money you can get out of it.


I wouldn't expect people to deliver my groceries on a volunteer basis.

The ability to deliver groceries to those who can't get to the store.....disabled, elderly, sick was already available before the virus and will continue.

There isn't enough capability to do it for everyone.


----------



## sags

I remember 40 years ago, we went to the grocery store, and the cashier put our bags into blue tote bins. They would put the bins on a conveyor that took the bins under the pavement and came up in a kiosk, where we would drive the car, pop the trunk, and the kids would put them into the car trunk.

Then they went self service to save dollars. Now we park the car, put a quarter into the shopping cart to unlock it, go shopping and bring everything out in the cart. Push the cart to the car. Load the groceries and push the cart all the way back to get our quarter back. Then walk back to the car and drive away.

Now we are back to pick up again.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> I wouldn't expect people to deliver my groceries on a volunteer basis.
> 
> The ability to deliver groceries to those who can't get to the store.....disabled, elderly, sick was already available before the virus and will continue.
> 
> There isn't enough capability to do it for everyone.


Old thinking sags. What is to stop supermarkets from simply changing into warehouses from which ALL items are delivered to your home? You say there is not enough 'capability', by which I presume you mean delivery drivers. What's to stop there from being enough drivers? The answer is there is nothing actually stopping that from happening.

Consider Uber eats etc. for example. They didn't exist until recently and then lots of people started using them. As the demand increased, the number of people willing to do that job increased. If demand for delivery from the supermarkets increases there is no reason why the number of people willing to do the deliveries will not increase.

The only thing that could stop it would be if there were not enough people willing to do the job. What the heck, I'll make this somewhat tongue in cheek remark. It's a good opportunity for all those unemployed GM Oshawa workers to find some work.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

Longtimeago said:


> The media are not focusing enough on what people are doing wrong. Instead we get 'cutesy' stories about how a family is spending their time in isolation, etc.
> 
> There are IMPORTANT messages they could be getting out to the public with their airtime.


I noticed that too. There are "common sense" reminders people should be thinking about.

Get your immune system in shape. Now.

-eat well, try to have a balanced diet.
-do some physical exercise; get on your bike. Walk briskly, skip rope. Whatever it takes to build up your cardio system so your body is ready to fight the virus.
-get outside and soak up some sunshine, (what little we get in March).
-make sure you're sleeping enough hours and not get rundown.
-turn your computer OFF. Watch a comedy movie, laugh a little. Relieve that stress
-take you vitamin C, echinacea, or whatever I'm a believe in cod liver oil. I take the Costco capsules and haven't been sick a day since in about 8 years or so.
whatever works for you...


----------



## Longtimeago

dotnet_nerd said:


> I noticed that too. There are "common sense" reminders people should be thinking about.
> 
> Get your immune system in shape. Now.
> 
> -eat well, try to have a balanced diet.
> -do some physical exercise; get on your bike. Walk briskly, skip rope. Whatever it takes to build up your cardio system so your body is ready to fight the virus.
> -get outside and soak up some sunshine, (what little we get in March).
> -make sure you're sleeping enough hours and not get rundown.
> -turn your computer OFF. Watch a comedy movie, laugh a little. Relieve that stress
> -take you vitamin C, echinacea, or whatever I'm a believe in cod liver oil. I take the Costco capsules and haven't been sick a day since in about 8 years or so.
> whatever works for you...


I found cod liver oil effective for Bursitus dotnet_nerd. However, you have to pay attention since Vitamin A does build up in the body and you can 'overdose' on it unlike say vitamin C which does not build up but instead, any excess is simply flushed out in your urine.








Hypervitaminosis A: Causes, Symptoms, and Diagnosis


Hypervitaminosis A, or vitamin A toxicity, occurs when you have too much vitamin A in your body. This condition may be acute or chronic.




www.healthline.com





Some people seem to think you can take all the vitamins you want, that simply isn't true.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Old thinking sags. What is to stop supermarkets from simply changing into warehouses from which ALL items are delivered to your home? You say there is not enough 'capability', by which I presume you mean delivery drivers. What's to stop there from being enough drivers? The answer is there is nothing actually stopping that from happening.
> 
> Consider Uber eats etc. for example. They didn't exist until recently and then lots of people started using them. As the demand increased, the number of people willing to do that job increased. If demand for delivery from the supermarkets increases there is no reason why the number of people willing to do the deliveries will not increase.
> 
> The only thing that could stop it would be if there were not enough people willing to do the job. What the heck, I'll make this somewhat tongue in cheek remark. It's a good opportunity for all those unemployed GM Oshawa workers to find some work.


the closest city to me...about 20 mins away....just approved Uber in the last few months. How long has Uber been around in Canada? Shows how long it takes for wide-spread Adaptation/conversion.


----------



## Money172375

Money172375 said:


> the closest city to me...about 20 mins away....just approved Uber in the last few months. How long has Uber been around in Canada? Shows how long it takes for wide-spread Adaptation/conversion. And this about 90 mins away from Toronto. wonder how long it will take for all these new ways of doing things to reach the farther stretches of the country.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

Longtimeago said:


> I found cod liver oil effective for Bursitus dotnet_nerd. However, you have to pay attention since Vitamin A does build up in the body and you can 'overdose' on it unlike say vitamin C which does not build up but instead, any excess is simply flushed out in your urine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hypervitaminosis A: Causes, Symptoms, and Diagnosis
> 
> 
> Hypervitaminosis A, or vitamin A toxicity, occurs when you have too much vitamin A in your body. This condition may be acute or chronic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.healthline.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some people seem to think you can take all the vitamins you want, that simply isn't true.


Good point, oil-soluable vitamins (A, D, E) can accumulate in your liver. But one capsule a day is fine. I only take it in the winter during cold/flu season


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> the closest city to me...about 20 mins away....just approved Uber in the last few months. How long has Uber been around in Canada? Shows how long it takes for wide-spread Adaptation/conversion.


Umm, I'm not sure what the approval of the city has to do with how long Uber has been operating in a given city. Uber never really pays any attention to a city until AFTER they have started operating there and the question then comes up in City Council of whether to ban it or not. They act first and then deal with any fallout later.

For example: Uber coming


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> Old thinking sags. What is to stop supermarkets from simply changing into warehouses from which ALL items are delivered to your home? You say there is not enough 'capability', by which I presume you mean delivery drivers. What's to stop there from being enough drivers? The answer is there is nothing actually stopping that from happening.
> 
> Consider Uber eats etc. for example. They didn't exist until recently and then lots of people started using them. As the demand increased, the number of people willing to do that job increased. If demand for delivery from the supermarkets increases there is no reason why the number of people willing to do the deliveries will not increase.
> 
> The only thing that could stop it would be if there were not enough people willing to do the job. What the heck, I'll make this somewhat tongue in cheek remark. It's a good opportunity for all those unemployed GM Oshawa workers to find some work.



This is logistically a bit more difficult than you might imagine. I would think grocers are already thinking about how to do this, but to expect them to be able to do this in thousands of stores across the country quickly is a bit unlikely. Things you might not have considered: need considerably more staff to do the order assembly and delivery tasks than cashier staff that is freed up. Also IT infrastructure. All those pickers need devices, servers and connectivity to be able to do this. Consider that pick-up/dellivery is currently maybe 1-2% of the grocery market, it would take time to ramp up the infrastructure to get to a substantial number, never mind 100%.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Umm, I'm not sure what the approval of the city has to do with how long Uber has been operating in a given city. Uber never really pays any attention to a city until AFTER they have started operating there and the question then comes up in City Council of whether to ban it or not. They act first and then deal with any fallout later.
> 
> For example: Uber coming


seems like Orillia handled it differently. They wanted vulnerable search checks before allowing ride sharing to operate. Because of that, uber chose not to enter the city Uber officially gets green light to operate in Orillia.

Either way, for whatever reason, the point is that we can’t point to Uber eats to feed the country. A lot of the country still doesn’t have regular Uber service.


----------



## Money172375

andrewf said:


> This is logistically a bit more difficult than you might imagine. I would think grocers are already thinking about how to do this, but to expect them to be able to do this in thousands of stores across the country quickly is a bit unlikely. Things you might not have considered: need considerably more staff to do the order assembly and delivery tasks than cashier staff that is freed up. Also IT infrastructure. All those pickers need devices, servers and connectivity to be able to do this. Consider that pick-up/dellivery is currently maybe 1-2% of the grocery market, it would take time to ramp up the infrastructure to get to a substantial number, never mind 100%.


exactly. The pivot to regular, routine, reliable, nation-wide grocery delivery will not be done in time to meet the fearful demands that will exist this year.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> seems like Orillia handled it differently. They wanted vulnerable search checks before allowing ride sharing to operate. Uber officially gets green light to operate in Orillia.
> 
> my point is that we can’t point to Uber eats to feed the country. A lot of the country still doesn’t have regular Uber service.


My point is that that was then and this is NOW. What applied pre-Covid19 does not apply post-Covid19 as we can obviously see. You didn't need to quarantine for 14 days after returning to Canada even last week, this week you do.

If you were 80 and/or had an underlying medical condition, you didn't need Uber Eats, 2 months ago. Now maybe you do. What do you suppose the Orillia Town Council would say today if someone said, 'we need a meal delivery service provider authorized right NOW.' Motion passed.

People keep thinking in YESTERDAY'S terms. This is TODAY and the entire world is different.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> exactly. The pivot to regular, routine, reliable, nation-wide grocery delivery will not be done in time to meet the fearful demands that will exist this year.


I think you guys are underestimating just how much online grocery shopping is already being done and how much infrastructure to support it already exists as well as how prepared to increase it the major suppliers are. They have been gearing up to take OVER the grocery store market, for several years already. This may in the end prove to be a big plus for them in achieving that.









Online grocery in Canadian e-commerce | Business Matters | Canada Post


New research shows that Canadians are hungry for click-and-deliver in the emerging e-commerce grocery sector.




www.canadapost.ca













Amazon leads online grocery shopping in Canada: Survey


E-commerce giant beats out Walmart and Loblaw's in recent survey conducted by NRG




www.canadiangrocer.com





The only issue really is finding enough drivers quickly enough.


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> It is that kind of thinking which will help to SPREAD the virus Beaver101. Every interaction, regardless of what precautions anyone takes, adds to the possibility of spread. That is why we hear the words, 'necessary' and 'non-essential' being used in all the advice we are being given.


 ... so are you telling me that "food" is "not necessary or not essential" when I'm down to half a loaf of bread or 4 eggs that should last me for a couple of days? And I should have "preplanned ordering online on these perishables a week ago" for delivery of April 2nd at earliest? Or maybe I should just stick with eating canned beans for the rest of the year? 



> You 'don't see why you can't go to the supermarket'. That's why, because when you do, YOU endanger others health. It's SELFISH to go if there is a way to get your groceries WITHOUT going. There is a way to get them without going, have them delivered.


 ... how is it that I'm endangering others' health when I haven't been infected as have no symptoms, haven't wandered outside for 2 weeks now, working at home and haven't travelled for the past 5 years (staycations are cheap!!!). Has it ever occurred to you I am the one taking a risk by having to go to the supermarket (because I'm still able to, not a cripple), having to expose myself to all the infected (your assumption) outside? Who is the selfish one?



> As for 'if you don't mind or can wait that long'. Stop thinking like it was before this started. If you have to wait a week for delivery then WAIT a week. Learn to plan ahead and order today what you will need next week. Or is that too difficult for you to do?


 ... no, I can't wait as I have (had) to get my prescription meds also. Should I call the pharmacy to get them to deliver. Like hell they will. And they won't even fill a rx for more than 30 days which means I have to make another trip in a month's time to get the rx filled again meaning I have increased my risk of getting infected.



> I MIND if YOU instead decide to put other people at RISK by acting in a way that is irresponsible, simply because you prefer to.


 ... so you're saying you're SO responsible by ordering delivery simply because you can afford to (brag brag brag), and not because you don't want to get infected by everyone else. Simple question: what are the chances of you getting infected if you Fort Knox yourself? NIL. So what are you minding or BSing about?


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> I think you guys are underestimating just how much online grocery shopping is already being done and how much infrastructure to support it already exists as well as how prepared to increase it the major suppliers are. They have been gearing up to take OVER the grocery store market, for several years already. This may in the end prove to be a big plus for them in achieving that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Online grocery in Canadian e-commerce | Business Matters | Canada Post
> 
> 
> New research shows that Canadians are hungry for click-and-deliver in the emerging e-commerce grocery sector.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.canadapost.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Amazon leads online grocery shopping in Canada: Survey
> 
> 
> E-commerce giant beats out Walmart and Loblaw's in recent survey conducted by NRG
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.canadiangrocer.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The only issue really is finding enough drivers quickly enough.


I don't think I am. The capacity to serve even 10% of the market is barely there.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Sags. Please remember you said that when we eventually get back to Universal Income debates and others just like it. I have been saying what you just said above, to deaf ears I will add, for a very long time.


The argument against UBI is the argument for a big cash handout to everyone right now.

it's literally the same arguement.

Pre-COVID-19
If we give them cash, they'll sit at home and watch Netflix! 
No they won't!!

During COVID-19
We need to give everyone cash so they can sit home and watch Netflix!

Honestly I think we're in a brutal situation, with the coming rent strike, it's going to destroy small landlords.

This whole mess is going to get really nasty.


----------



## Eclectic12

andrewf said:


> I don't think I am. The capacity to serve even 10% of the market is barely there.


Agreed ...past history is being ignored as well. Grocery Gateway was all the rage with some of my friends in the late '90's but was bankrupt and had it's assets picked up by Longo's in 2004.

As for the idea that online grocery shopping being underestimated - back in early Feb this year, the grocery delivery business in the UK was estimated at 10% and the US at 7% while the high estimate for Canada was 1.7%



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/online-grocery-delivery-grow-dramatically-1.5451428




I expect they were increasing a bit and places that had ignored it were likely noticing the trend but I don't see how that small a market would be in position to ramp up that quickly ... especially as the earlier failures would likely be reminder not to over invest/over build infrastructure.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

deleted duplicate post


----------



## agent99

Delivery of prepared meal kits has become quite popular even before Covid. Many working couples find them handy and even some of our retired friends use them. Possible those businesses are seeing an uptick in business. 









I Tried All The Meal Kit Delivery Services So You Don’t Have To


Could meal kits like HelloFresh and Chef’s Plate help me finally win at family dinners?




www.chatelaine.com


----------



## sags

The delivery of pet food never did catch on for Pets.com

Turns out the domain name was worth more than the business.


----------



## sags

Getting more drivers is only part of the problem.

The stores can't afford to pay someone $14 an hour to pick groceries and someone else $14 an hour to drive them over.

The profit margins on groceries is small and they will need to raise the delivery fee or raise prices overall. Somebody has to pay the piper.


----------



## nortel'd

This is the first time I have ever tried to attach a photo. Hopefully it works.

I would rather go shopping for my own supplies and so does my neighbour.
We just exchanged two masks for eight rolls of Cashmere Ultraluxe toilet paper (8 doubles = 16 singles). Considering it took me 3 hours to make them, I think my next door neighbour got the better deal.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Getting more drivers is only part of the problem.
> 
> The stores can't afford to pay someone $14 an hour to pick groceries and someone else $14 an hour to drive them over.
> 
> The profit margins on groceries is small and they will need to raise the delivery fee or raise prices overall. Somebody has to pay the piper.


But you need to pay them a "living wage", of course nobody wants to pay those prices.

The issue is that there are a bunch of ignorant people who think there are some Scrooge McDucks swimming in vaults of gold, and everything would be better if they would just pay for it.

The reality is most of the economy is average working people who already feel like everything is tight.
Even the relatively wealthy are complaining about it.

Secondly, paying someone to collect and deliver your goods without an extra fee or price hike simply isn't financially reasonable.


----------



## Prairie Guy

MrMatt said:


> The issue is that there are a bunch of ignorant people who think there are some Scrooge McDucks swimming in vaults of gold, and everything would be better if they would just pay for it.


There are some ignorant people with little knowledge, but there are just as many people who are lazy and feel entitled to the fruits of someone else's hard work.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> I don't think I am. The capacity to serve even 10% of the market is barely there.


Did you read the links I provided andrewf? Here's a quote from the second one.
"The survey also suggests interest in grocery shopping online is rising fast with nearly 28% saying they shop for groceries online and 6% saying online was their “main method” of grocery shopping.

Another survey, just 18 months ago, found only 15% of respondents had bought groceries online."

Think it through. Ordering online requires only that a platform to do so exists. It has no real limits as to the number of orders that can be handled. Picking orders and delivering orders requires only warm bodies. Those warm bodies are the only real bottleneck to the process.


----------



## Longtimeago

agent99 said:


> Delivery of prepared meal kits has become quite popular even before Covid. Many working couples find them handy and even some of our retired friends use them. Possible those businesses are seeing an uptick in business.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I Tried All The Meal Kit Delivery Services So You Don’t Have To
> 
> 
> Could meal kits like HelloFresh and Chef’s Plate help me finally win at family dinners?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.chatelaine.com


There are a couple of such services even in our small town of 3000 agent99. My Brother is a bachelor and finds both shopping and cooking for just one person is not always that easy or convenient. His favourite 'pre-made' meal provider who works out of her home kitchen selling such meals, is actually the local High School cooking teacher.

Right now, he phones her an order, she sets them out on her front step and he picks them up and leaves the money.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Getting more drivers is only part of the problem.
> 
> The stores can't afford to pay someone $14 an hour to pick groceries and someone else $14 an hour to drive them over.
> 
> The profit margins on groceries is small and they will need to raise the delivery fee or raise prices overall. Somebody has to pay the piper.


How are the supermarkets affording to pay the pickers and drivers they currently have then sags? Do you think they are doing it at a loss? I don't think so. They are making a profit on the deliveries they are now doing, otherwise they wouldn't be doing it. Increasing the number of deliveries will just make them more profit.

Leave the questions about how to make it pay up to those who need to make the profits sags and that isn't you. All you have to do is place an order and pay for it.


----------



## Longtimeago

nortel'd said:


> This is the first time I have ever tried to attach a photo. Hopefully it works.
> 
> I would rather go shopping for my own supplies and so does my neighbour.
> We just exchanged two masks for eight rolls of Cashmere Ultraluxe toilet paper (8 doubles = 16 singles). Considering it took me 3 hours to make them, I think my next door neighbour got the better deal.
> 
> View attachment 20062
> View attachment 20065
> View attachment 20063
> View attachment 20064


That's hilarious. A REAL mask is good for about 20 minutes of use and you spend 3 hours making 2. That equation doesn't even balance out nortel'd. 

I e-mail an order to our local supermarket and they deliver our groceries as well as TP and it costs me, wait for it...............$3 for the delivery charge. I think I'm getting a better deal than you or your neighbour.


----------



## sags

Longtimeago said:


> How are the supermarkets affording to pay the pickers and drivers they currently have then sags? Do you think they are doing it at a loss? I don't think so. They are making a profit on the deliveries they are now doing, otherwise they wouldn't be doing it. Increasing the number of deliveries will just make them more profit.
> 
> Leave the questions about how to make it pay up to those who need to make the profits sags and that isn't you. All you have to do is place an order and pay for it.


Here is some informative reporting on problems with the food delivery businesses.

Of course food can be hand picked and delivered to doors.....along with a complimentary bottle of wine, if someone is willing to pay for it.

Customers don't want to pay. Stores don't want to pay. Delivery companies don't want to pay.

So far, it has been the contract drivers working for nothing and having their tips confiscated by the companies who have paid the cost.

Maybe that is why every delivery company is looking for contract drivers. The companies churn through employees like few other companies.









Killing Instacart: Why The High-Flying Company Is At Risk Of Crashing To The Ground


Instacart's reputation continues to worsen. Is it time for grocery retailers to dump Instacart?




www.forbes.com













Walmart loses another grocery delivery service


Skipcart has cut ties with the retailer and will halt deliveries from the 126 stores it services sometime in March.




www.grocerydive.com


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Secondly, paying someone to collect and deliver your goods without an extra fee or price hike simply isn't financially reasonable.


Of course it isn't, who ever said it was. But what is wrong with paying a bit extra to have someone do so? 

You know, it isn't as if you pay 25% extra for such service. Some people shop at places like Costco, etc. to try and get the lowest possible price for everything. Some people may shop at a small local supermarket where prices are a bit higher but it is more convenient to get to. Yes they may pay 5 or even 10% more but if you can afford to do so, what's the problem?

When you say it 'simply isn't financially reasonable', you are speaking for SOME people certainly but not for everyone. Even among those who shop for the lowest prices, they still make choices of what they spend their money on. We for example spend no money in a year on alcoholic drinks of any kind. How much is a case of beer? That would pay for a delivery quite easily.

Our local Foodland delivers for $3. We could pay a bit less for groceries no doubt if we went to Costco but we don't care. My wife as it happens just phoned this morning to order a delivery. She just tells them on the phone, 'I'm e-mailing an order for delivery.' Then she e-mailed her list which saves them writing everything down while on the phone. Maybe 10 minutes after sending the e-mail she got a confirmation e-mail back. They will pick the order and between 11.30 and noon today they will phone her to say when the delivery will be made THIS AFTERNOON. How much is that worth MrMatt?

With our order, we include a ' 1 x Food Bank donation $10.00 with each order. The delivery driver will not accept a tip from a senior, I've tried.

I have no doubt there are seniors in our town who are on more limited budgets than our own but they still shop at our local Foodland. Often, they have no car, they walk to Foodland almost every day and buy a few things that they can carry home in one bag. They simply can't carry more than that. But they aren't paying for a car and insurance are they, so they do not have that expense to deal with. Where you spend your money and where they spend their money simply differs. What is and is not 'financially reasonable' differs MrMatt. I'm sure you find some things 'financially reasonable' that others do not. Don't PRESUME to speak for others who have different priorities to your own.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Here is some informative reporting on problems with the food delivery businesses.
> 
> Of course food can be hand picked and delivered to doors.....along with a complimentary bottle of wine, if someone is willing to pay for it.
> 
> Customers don't want to pay. Stores don't want to pay. Delivery companies don't want to pay.
> 
> So far, it has been the contract drivers working for nothing and having their tips confiscated by the companies who have paid the cost.
> 
> Maybe that is why every delivery company is looking for contract drivers. The companies churn through employees like few other companies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Killing Instacart: Why The High-Flying Company Is At Risk Of Crashing To The Ground
> 
> 
> Instacart's reputation continues to worsen. Is it time for grocery retailers to dump Instacart?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Walmart loses another grocery delivery service
> 
> 
> Skipcart has cut ties with the retailer and will halt deliveries from the 126 stores it services sometime in March.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.grocerydive.com


I don't mean to be nasty or anything sags but you are not a business person, you are a retired employee. How you see the world is based only on your experience and viewpoint. 

There is no doubt that the grocery delivery business is in flux. Various business models are currently being tried and like anything else, some will fail and some will succeed. What is NOT in question is that more and more people want deliveries as links I provide above show. That means there is market demand and wherever there is market demand you always find someone who finds a way to meet that demand. That's how business works.

So you will find stories like those you linked, so what? It does not mean that grocery delivery is going to fail, it just means the right business model was not found by those who did fail. Before Airbnb came along, there were already dozens of companies online who provided a platform for a property owner to rent out their property. Some failed, some had moderate success. Then came AirBnB and the market literally exploded. Or look at Amazon and there success in doing nothing but delivering products to your door.

My own son boasts to me that he hasn't been in a bricks and mortar store in a long time to buy anything. They order everything online from clothes to meals. They may order a meal from a restaurant (Skipthedishes) or they may order a meal recipe and ingredients that they then cook themselves(Goodfood) or yes, they may just order groceries from a supermarket and have them delivered. They value time spent not going to stores over the cost of ordering online and paying a bit more perhaps.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Did you read the links I provided andrewf? Here's a quote from the second one.
> "The survey also suggests interest in grocery shopping online is rising fast with nearly 28% saying they shop for groceries online and 6% saying online was their “main method” of grocery shopping.
> 
> Another survey, just 18 months ago, found only 15% of respondents had bought groceries online."
> 
> Think it through. Ordering online requires only that a platform to do so exists. It has no real limits as to the number of orders that can be handled. Picking orders and delivering orders requires only warm bodies. Those warm bodies are the only real bottleneck to the process.


sorry, that’s incorrect according to Metro. A shortage of refrigerated delivery trucks is also a factor. 









As online orders surge, grocers struggle to deliver


Shoppers in self-isolation face days-long waits and sparse inventory for food orders




www.theglobeandmail.com





the grocers quoted here don’t make it sound like a solution is imminent.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> Did you read the links I provided andrewf? Here's a quote from the second one.
> "The survey also suggests interest in grocery shopping online is rising fast with nearly 28% saying they shop for groceries online and 6% saying online was their “main method” of grocery shopping.
> 
> Another survey, just 18 months ago, found only 15% of respondents had bought groceries online."
> 
> Think it through. Ordering online requires only that a platform to do so exists. It has no real limits as to the number of orders that can be handled. Picking orders and delivering orders requires only warm bodies. Those warm bodies are the only real bottleneck to the process.


LTA, I know a bit about this business. Instacart can scale in the way you describe because the instacart shoppers go through the cashier lane like any other customer. But for stores picking their own orders, there are infrastructure considerations. Ask anyone with a background in enterprise IT.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> How are the supermarkets affording to pay the pickers and drivers they currently have then sags? * Do you think they are doing it at a loss?* I don't think so. They are making a profit on the deliveries they are now doing, otherwise they wouldn't be doing it. Increasing the number of deliveries will just make them more profit.


You might be surprised. A lot of the players are doing it as a defensive play to protect share. It is considerably less profitable (if not money losing).



> Leave the questions about how to make it pay up to those who need to make the profits sags and that isn't you. All you have to do is place an order and pay for it.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> sorry, that’s incorrect according to Metro. A shortage of refrigerated delivery trucks is also a factor.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As online orders surge, grocers struggle to deliver
> 
> 
> Shoppers in self-isolation face days-long waits and sparse inventory for food orders
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> the grocers quoted here don’t make it sound like a solution is imminent.


You pick one line out of the article regarding refrigerated delivery trucks as a factor. That factor can easily be disregarded under current conditions. You need a refrigerated truck if you are delivering multiple orders over a period of say half a day or more. Break that down to 6 guys with a car each delivering 1-2 orders over an hour and you have no need for refrigeration any more than you do when you bring them home in your own car. In other words, the existing model may not work, so you CHANGE the model.

The article shows they are scrambling to meet demand yes. It also shows that they are trying to find ways to meet that demand such as dedicating a store to just fill orders for pick up as it mentions in the article. It also tells you they are re-allocating staff and trying to hire more drivers etc. But they can't be expected to find the answers overnight. What is the point of focusing on the negatives and ignoring the positives?

I have never understood why people want to focus on insisting and proving a problem exists. We know there is a problem, why focus on posting that problem exists? Why don't you focus on finding solutions and posting about potential solutions you have found. I've been posting about alternatives here to try and help people but what I seem to be getting back in return is comments that keep focusing on the problem WITHOUT offering any solutions. Who do those comments help?


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> LTA, I know a bit about this business. Instacart can scale in the way you describe because the instacart shoppers go through the cashier lane like any other customer. But for stores picking their own orders, there are infrastructure considerations. Ask anyone with a background in enterprise IT.


Andrewf, I will direct you to the answer I just gave to Money172375. Stop focusing on the problem and use your experience to focus on solutions for people. You continuing to say 'it's not so easy, they don't make profit, etc.' helps no one. Why are you posting here? Just to say, 'I know this business'? Focus on solutions, not problems.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> Andrewf, I will direct you to the answer I just gave to Money172375. Stop focusing on the problem and use your experience to focus on solutions for people. You continuing to say 'it's not so easy, they don't make profit, etc.' helps no one. Why are you posting here? Just to say, 'I know this business'? Focus on solutions, not problems.


Blind optimism helps no one. The current providers are making a heroic effort to expand capacity. It just won't be enough. Galen sent me an email this morning saying they are doing 3x the normal volume. He also asked anyone who is healthy to come do their own shopping to help their neighbours who need the service to get access to it.

My 2 cents: leave delivery for those in mandatory isolation and high risk. I don't fall into either group.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Blind optimism helps no one. The current providers are making a heroic effort to expand capacity. It just won't be enough. Galen sent me an email this morning saying they are doing 3x the normal volume. He also asked anyone who is healthy to come do their own shopping to help their neighbours who need the service to get access to it.
> 
> My 2 cents: leave delivery for those in mandatory isolation and high risk. I don't fall into either group.


Fine andrewf, do your own shopping. Now do you have anything constructive to offer to those who cannot? Or do you just want to put your 2 cents in to not helping?


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Fine andrewf, do your own shopping. Now do you have anything constructive to offer to those who cannot? Or do you just want to put your 2 cents in to not helping?


Wow, so andrewf provides a solution for those that don't need delivery not to use it but because that isn't LTA approved thinking it's wrong huh?


----------



## sags

The solution is for people to wear PPE when they shop. My wife worked for decades in isolation rooms at the hospital burn unit. 

She wears an N95, gloves and eye goggles. We carry disinfectant wipes in the car. Best we can do. I worry more about her working in the retirement home.


----------



## sags

Isn't it ironic that the cruise lines may not be able to access US government bailout money because they aren't registered as US companies ?

They are registered in Liberia, Panama, and other countries to avoid paying US taxes. Now politicians don't want them accessing the cash.

I wonder how many other companies fall into the same category of non-US registered companies.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> Fine andrewf, do your own shopping. Now do you have anything constructive to offer to those who cannot? Or do you just want to put your 2 cents in to not helping?


This is constructive. If you are in a low-risk group, do your own shopping so that delivery service is available for people who need it. The current situation is forcing people in isolation to choose between breaking quarantine and running low on food.


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> This is constructive. If you are in a low-risk group, do your own shopping so that delivery service is available for people who need it. The current situation is forcing people in isolation to choose between breaking quarantine and running low on food.


 .. +1 as that's the other flip side. However, the most "UNselfish" people wants "delivery of everything" simply because they can well afford it and don't want their Fort Knox to get infected by everyone else, including the delivery guys. The irony.


----------



## agent99

andrewf said:


> This is constructive. If you are in a low-risk group, do your own shopping so that delivery service is available for people who need it. The current situation is forcing people in isolation to choose between breaking quarantine and running low on food.


For those who have friends, maybe they could pick up and deliver food to you.

Our friends , like us, were away for the winter and are in self Isolation, like us. So that is out. Kids are a long way away, but did stock us up before we got back. (but forgot the wine!) 

Anyway, we have a great local community supermarket and they deliver whatever we want either same day or next day.

LCBO? Not delivering. Now that IS a problem


----------



## nortel'd

Longtimeago said:


> That's hilarious. A REAL mask is good for about 20 minutes of use and you spend 3 hours making 2. That equation doesn't even balance out nortel'd.
> 
> I e-mail an order to our local supermarket and they deliver our groceries as well as TP and it costs me, wait for it...............$3 for the delivery charge. I think I'm getting a better deal than you or your neighbour.


OOPS … Sorry Longtimeago … I just realized the explanation on how I recycle to reuse is not at all clear. "_The mask while holding it by its top elastics, is sprayed on its outside and inside surface to saturation with 70% alcohol then allowed to dry outside on your back deck. I have yet to put one of the masks in the oven at 180 F. A microwave cannot be used because of the twist ties used along the top edge to help form mask to ones nose._

At present I don't know how many times I will be able to recycle each one. By the time I cancelled my trip to Florida I had twenty stashed away and enough materials to make 30 more.

I agree at $3 you might be "ge_tting a better deal" _… but .. I think I am the one_ "having all the fun._"

Edited to add.... "_My mask set up *should* be good for a 20 minute shopping spree." _

In my limited understanding of the English language, using the word *should* does not mean *"only"*.


----------



## sags

Nice group picture of Trump and his buddies crammed together at the signing of the stimulus bill in the Oval Office.

I guess they didn't hear the news about UK PM Boris Johnson becoming infected. Maybe Fox News didn't cover it.

The Democrats are happy they weren't invited to the germ fest.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Given what you think of Trump I'm surprised you aren't cheering.
I could praise his courage and dedication in showing up for work as normal when everyone else is in hiding but I don't want your head to explode.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> Nice group picture of Trump and his buddies crammed together at the signing of the stimulus bill in the Oval Office.
> 
> I guess they didn't hear the news about UK PM Boris Johnson becoming infected. Maybe Fox News didn't cover it.
> 
> The Democrats are happy they weren't invited to the germ fest.


Crammed almost as tight as the mostly liberal media at a press briefing.


----------



## Longtimeago

I think the next thing people need to get their head around is that this is not going away anytime soon. Some people still seem to think that in a few weeks it will peak and then things will start going back to normal. First, if we are successful in 'flattening the curve' that also means we will extend the time over which the curve runs.

A bell curve has two axes. In the case of a virus, one is time (usually along the base of the graph) and the other is distribution. The curve shows the distribution then over time for the entire 100% of what it is you are measuring. That applies even if you are guessing as to the total number of in this case Covid19 cases.

So you can have a curve that rises sharply and descends sharply or you can have a curve which rises slowly and descends slowly which is what we are trying to achieve by 'flattening the curve' or you can have a curve that falls somewhere in between. The thing to realize is that the more you flatten the curve the longer the time period it will take to cover the 100% of what you are measuring.

This is why some people want to let it run fast in order to get it over with in a shorter period of time. They are primarily looking at economic impact vs. health impact and saying favour reduced economic impact over health impact. Fortunately, cooler heads are prevailing here in Canada. If you let it run fast, it will kill more people, it's as simple as that.

But we do have to understand that if we succeed in flattening the curve it will take longer for it to run it's course. So we are in this for the 'long haul' with that quite possibly meaning perhaps as much as 18 months. Everything is certainly not going to be back to normal in a couple of months.

Once we get our heads around that, we will then understand that we have to adapt to the consequences of that. The more vulnerable for example may need to stay isolated for the entire time period. We see people getting antsy now after just a couple of weeks of self-isolation. It may well be months of isolation we face.


----------



## Longtimeago

Prairie Guy said:


> Crammed almost as tight as the mostly liberal media at a press briefing.


The media are not crammed at press briefings in Canada. They are maintaining physical distancing or haven't you noticed.


----------



## Retired Peasant

Longtimeago said:


> Don't PRESUME to speak for others who have different priorities to your own.


You too! We don't all live in this utopian village of 3000, like you


----------



## Longtimeago

Retired Peasant said:


> You too! We don't all live in this utopian village of 3000, like you


No you don't Retired Peasant. You may want to work on changing that for yourself.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> No you don't Retired Peasant. You may want to work on changing that for yourself.


Utopian village of 3k may not work out so well when it comes to health care resources.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Utopian village of 3k may not work out so well when it comes to health care resources.


That is obviously true in some cases andrewf. Remote towns certainly do exist however our 'Utopian' town has 3 good regional hospitals and 1 world class major hospital all within an hour of us as well as family doctors for all residents even closer than that. Being called a 'Utopian' town, only makes sense if everything you require is covered n'est pas?


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> That is obviously true in some cases andrewf. Remote towns certainly do exist however our 'Utopian' town has 3 good regional hospitals and 1 world class major hospital all within an hour of us as well as family doctors for all residents even closer than that. Being called a 'Utopian' town, only makes sense if everything you require is covered n'est pas?


An hour can be a long time in critical situation.


----------



## Retired Peasant

Longtimeago said:


> No you don't Retired Peasant. You may want to work on changing that for yourself.


I don’t need to change it. I live in the country near a town of 10000. My point was that you should not ‘PRESUME to speak for others’.

You seem to have no room in your thinking that others are in a different situation that you are. You come across as very preachy and condescending. Do you realize how many times you have told us about your quick delivery of food from your local Foodland? We saw it the first time; no need to repeat it so much – it’s just annoying.


----------



## Plugging Along

Longtimeago said:


> That is obviously true in some cases andrewf. Remote towns certainly do exist however our 'Utopian' town has 3 good regional hospitals and 1 world class major hospital all within an hour of us as well as family doctors for all residents even closer than that. Being called a 'Utopian' town, only makes sense if everything you require is covered n'est pas?


My back up plan if all heck broke lose was to head out to my cabin in my little town (isn't even large enough to be called a town) of 700 people. There was just a notice that there is a positive case of COVID19 in my little town. Apparently, there was some gathering a few weeks ago, the one guy has it, and they suspect his two family members do now too. There are 3 regional hospitals near by, the two closest have 1 ICU bed each, I think the other has a few more. Since the area is predominately city owners who vacation there, the towns have asked people not to come out. Their system can handle even less than the City's when you look at a per capital basis. 
You described you great little town for groceries, and such. It does so wonderful as our grocery system is very messed up right now. However, I will stay in my city, even though it is becoming a hot spot in the country because I think medical systems is still better if it gets really bad. 

The big part as you have been saying is to flatten the curve so it doesn't get to this point.


----------



## Plugging Along

In terms of groceries and food, I would like to think I am very good at planning and getting value for my money. I have always been a bulk buyer and probably pay a lot less than many for how well we eat. I have found that getting groceries has been a particular challenge in my city. I had been in the position of helping family who recently travelled and needed to isolate, an elderly parent who is at high risk, and have been volunteering to pick up and drop off items to those quarantined, at risk, or in need. I normally enjoy grocery shopping, but the landscape has totally changed in my City. It's not very enjoyable any more and I see it getting worse before better. I am in a larger city that has had a very high number of cases and there is community spread. It's very different than in a small town. 

Here's some observation I have:

Pick up is next to impossible to schedule. Right now all the next available slot April 10. That's almost three weeks away. I also checked numerous other groceries, and its about the same. For me, not a big deal because I am sure I can go that long plus longer. However many cannot buy a month worth of food if they don't have the money, the storage, have larger families, or require specific items.
Ordering weeks in advance requires quite a bit of planning for those of us that don't eat and use the same items every week. I found this extremely frustrating as I was trying to help buy groceries for some one isolating and told them to me everything they think they would need for the next two weeks. It took them 5 different tries to come close and kept on forgetting things or not realizing they were short. It took 3 shopping trips to get them through the 14 days. I am surprised how difficult this is for people that are used to planning that far ahead. I was particularly surprised with seniors. They are used to cooking for one maybe two people, don't eat very much, generally don't want large amounts of groceries but have lots of time. They are used to walking out to get an ingredient or two. There is no time for that in my house with kids, work, spouse, volunteering. So they kept asking for stuff after I did my shop. I did my final shop for them the other day, and said they should be good for a few weeks. I am not going out again for them.
Long delivery times doesn't help those people who didn't have the items and found out they have to self isolate now. It was very different a week ago, and it will be even more different next week. None of our grocery stores can keep up with demand. I have seen some laid off people, volunteer groups stepping up.
It's a total crap shoot on what you will get. I went to 7 grocery stores in the last 24 hours to find some of my last items. No luck. I put it on my click and collect, and it's showing out of stock for 3 weeks away.
Cost - a lot of the big chains have waived their fees, assuming you can get in. Small place or other groups charge up to 5% plus the delivery fee of $4-10. This isn't a big deal if you can afford it. HOWEVER, for people like me who are value shoppers, the increase in cost is much higher. I normally buy most of my items on sale, and know my prices, and frequency of sales well enough I hardly ever have to buy at regular price. I have noticed because now if I have to buy items when I see them because they will be sold out otherwise, it's up to a 40% difference. That's huge. I am still getting some of my items on sale, but can't get enough for what I normally would, and then have to substitute for a higher priced item. I bought items that were needed for those isolating, and had to text them to warn them that their items were not on sale, but if they want them, I had to get them. One person needed toilet paper at $20 for 30 single rolls. I usually pay $6 for that same bag. I have been making a lot of changes on how I shop and eat, and we are in a very fortunate place we can absorb these costs, but most people are not in this position.

In terms of not going out, this has been a very difficult one for me as I have been helping many others, so my going out is saving 4 - 6 pick up slots. However, I do believe that pick up/delivery should be reserved for those:

In quarantine/self-isolation
High risk groups - elderly, immuno-deficiencies, compromised immune systems
People who cannot get out themselves easily due to disabilities, having to bring young kids, lack of transportation, unable to lift their groceries, etc

So before some here who live in there own bubble small town utopia with no cases of coronavirus and the financial, mental, and physical health to weather this become condescending and judgmental on a world outside of their bubble that they know nothing about, they should realize there are some of us that are living a very different reality.


----------



## Plugging Along

One more post, I like to always have things that can help:

First stay at home if you can. Make sure it is essential.
Leave the grocery delivery and pick to those who need it more than you.
If you are going out, act as you are carrier and everyone else around is a carrier.
Wash your hands well before you leave the house, then immediately upon returning home
Bring wipes and wipe down the grocery carts and areas you are touching, I sanitize my cart when I get there, put on my gloves, shop, unload my groceries in the trunk, return the cart, give everything another wipe down, take off my gloves and throw them in a garbage bag I have in my car, hand sanitize, wipe down my steering wheel, key area, locks, seat belt, drive shift. Then go.
if you have gloves and something covering your face, use it (watch some videos on the proper way to put on and take off gloves and masks)
Don't be shy to politely and firmly ask people to keep their social distance. I am getting to the point I want to bring either my lightsaber or hockey stick. I haven't decided which one is less threatening but will get the point across. I did tell the person right beside me to give me some space, and another customer yelled at me for spreading paranoa. So I informed her that I am helping someone who just got off a cruise ship, do they want to take the chance that I have not been 'paranoid' and stand closer to me. Or maybe they should thank me for caring about others.
Be kind and don't lecture people. Some made a comment about my cart on how I was hoarding. I told them only a few items where mine, the others were for 3 seniors, 2 families in isolation, and a person in hard times.

I have been personally challenging my friends and family around me to try and make something better for someone else while still being responsible.


----------



## Beaver101

Retired Peasant said:


> I don’t need to change it. I live in the country near a town of 10000. My point was that you should not ‘PRESUME to speak for others’.
> 
> You seem to have no room in your thinking that others are in a different situation that you are. *You come across as very preachy and condescending.* *Do you realize how many times you have told us about your quick delivery of food from your local Foodland?* We saw it the first time; no need to repeat it so much – it’s just annoying.


 ... and some .. wondering if Mr. Know-It-All has a vested interest in the Foodland chain?


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> An hour can be a long time in critical situation.


 ... not to the patient trying to gasp for air. 

How about booking to the family doctor instead who would welcome him on a moment's notice.


----------



## sags

Personal service has been slowly eliminated in stores, most notably in grocery stores.

The "bagger" is gone. Bag it yourself in your own bags now. The helper guy who carried it to your car is gone. Carry it yourself.

Now people think they will return to personal shoppers and home delivery because a few tech geeks created apps...........LOL.

New apps don't turn an unprofitable business model into a profitable one.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> New apps don't turn an unprofitable business model into a profitable one.


We now have autonomous rocket boosters, satellites, drones, warehouses, supply and production

The only reason we don't have autonomous or at least semi-autonomous delivery is because of job protection


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Personal service has been slowly eliminated in stores, most notably in grocery stores.
> 
> The "bagger" is gone. Bag it yourself in your own bags now. The helper guy who carried it to your car is gone. Carry it yourself.



I grew up in a time when you pulled into a gas station they pumped your gas for you and cleaned the windshield and checked the oil.

When they started introducing self serve I thought to myself, "This will never catch on - most people aren't capable of pumping their own gas."

And now we're even bagging our own groceries.

ltr


----------



## like_to_retire

m3s said:


> The only reason we don't have autonomous or at least semi-autonomous delivery is because of job protection



I don't know if I agree. I think it's because no one could stand the sound of all those drones delivering product to people's doors.

ltr


----------



## m3s

like_to_retire said:


> I don't know if I agree. I think it's because no one could stand the sound of all those drones delivering product to people's doors.


I don't know if you agree either

Most live next to a road with noisy internal combustion engines..

Electrical vehicles are far quieter.. autonomous or not


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> I don't know if you agree either
> 
> Most live next to a road with noisy internal combustion engines..
> 
> Electrical vehicles are far quieter.. autonomous or not


Not everyone has a Harley guy on their street!

Most ICE vehicles are quiet enough unless someone modifies them. Also autonomous vehicles still are not smart enough to drive in many road conditions.


----------



## sags

Much is possible and regardless of the method, there is a cost attached to it that customers would have to pay.

As soon as all the stores are offering free delivery, some other grocer will start up offering come and get your own for a 20% discount.

Isn't that what already happened with the Food Basics, No Frills, Giant Tiger and other discount stores ?


----------



## agent99

like_to_retire said:


> I grew up in a time when you pulled into a gas station they pumped your gas for you and cleaned the windshield and checked the oil.
> ltr


There are one or two states in USA where drivers are still mostly not allowed to pump their own gas. (Some exceptions). With the Covid-19 contamination issues, it is a contentious issue. Self-serve gas pumps can be a location where the virus can be transferred.









Why does Oregon not allow people to pump their own gas?


Oregon is one of only 2 states that has laws against people pumping their own gas. Oregon first put these rules into place back in 1951.




www.staroilco.net


----------



## like_to_retire

m3s said:


> Most live next to a road with noisy internal combustion engines..



Seriously? A car goes by my house and there's no noise. If a freaking drone delivered a package to my neighbor's door - have you actually heard one of those things?

ltr


----------



## agent99




----------



## m3s

like_to_retire said:


> Seriously? A car goes by my house and there's no noise.


There's noise just that you're used to it.

Trucks, trains, planes are all ok because you're used to them apparently.



sags said:


> Much is possible and regardless of the method, there is a cost attached to it that customers would have to pay.


There is a cost attached to maintaining a brick and mortar store front in every town. The largest cost I believe is human labour

Centralized warehouses and semi-autonomous delivery would be more cost efficient and environmentally friendly if you look the complete system

Military logistics already studied and adopted to this nearly 20 years. It was to protect lives rather than jobs


----------



## agent99

Back to the virus.

In looking at World-o-meter today, it looks like cases and deaths in world are presently increasing at a rate of at least 10% per day! That would mean that the totals would double in a week. Higher than that in USA and here. And keep doubling or more every week after that until quarantine and other actions have an effect. The numbers could be staggering. Help!!!!









Coronavirus Update (Live): 115,549,034 Cases and 2,565,030 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




www.worldometers.info





This site provides growth rate by country: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research
Scroll down for the chart.
It says USA deaths double every 3 days. Canada, every 4 days. World every 6 days.


----------



## Prairie Guy

cainvest said:


> Not everyone has a Harley guy on their street!
> 
> Most ICE vehicles are quiet enough unless someone modifies them. Also autonomous vehicles still are not smart enough to drive in many road conditions.


Most cars you can't hear the engine at all but what you do hear is tire noise which applies to all vehicles, even electric.


----------



## Eclectic12

Longtimeago said:


> How are the supermarkets affording to pay the pickers and drivers they currently have then sags? Do you think they are doing it at a loss? ...


Interesting ... the "it's all changed" commentator seems to be depending on "it hasn't changed".

IAC, I suspect it's somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. 

I'd guess it also depends on whether one wants to stock one wants to put in the surveys and reported growth versus someone studying the issue who confirms the growth potential but puts the estimate of use at a small number.

Then too, even if it was profitable before (which it might not have been when few were using it) - the question is whether any of the mechanics that drove profitability have changed.


Cheers


----------



## agent99

In the post above, and many others, it is hard to know which previous post the author is replying to. 

If poster clicks on the "reply" button at bottom left under the post they are replying to, it will automatically *quote* the post in question. If it is long, parts can be edited out.

Makes it easier to follow a thread like this that wanders a bit.

Just a suggestion....


----------



## kcowan2000

like_to_retire said:


> I grew up in a time when you pulled into a gas station they pumped your gas for you and cleaned the windshield and checked the oil.
> 
> <snip>
> And now we're even bagging our own groceries.
> 
> ltr


No Frills taught us how to bring our own bags and fill them too!


----------



## nortel'd

The ever-changing narrative on how COVID -19 can be spread...

Quotes from Can coronavirus spread through food or packaging? followed by my thoughts.



> The virus can spread if a person touches their eyes or mouth after touching a contaminated surface, the CDC says, but it's not thought to be the main source of transmission.


If touching our eyes or mouth after touching a contaminated surface is now not thought to be the main source of transmission, then please tell me what is?

OH my God ....



> The main spread of the virus is believed to be person-to-person, including droplets that remain in the air after a sneeze or cough, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


But …. I need to look through and breath that air. Social distancing be dammed … Besides their usual banter, it is high time the media starts promoting the need to cover ones eyes, nose, and mouth when out shopping.



> While there are a lot of unknowns with the novel virus, there’s no evidence of COVID-19 transmitting through food or packaging, according to the Food and Drug Administration.


BUT



> “The virus that causes COVID-19 has also been detected in the stool of certain people,” Harvard said. “So we currently cannot rule out the possibility of the infection being transmitted through food by an infected person who has not thoroughly washed their hands.”


hum interesting ... That makes common sense to carefully decontaminate our groceries once we get them into our home and take-out food before we eat it?


----------



## Eclectic12

agent99 said:


> In the post above, and many others, it is hard to know which previous post the author is replying to.
> 
> If poster clicks on the "reply" button at bottom left under the post they are replying to, it will automatically *quote* the post in question. If it is long, parts can be edited out.


Maybe this is a timing issue where the post you are referring to without a quote is earlier than my post #1290 that is immediately above your post #1291?

If you mean my post, it is confusing considering there's a short slice of the post being responded to being quoted before my comment.


Cheers


----------



## agent99

Eclectic12 said:


> Maybe this is a timing issue where the post you are referring to without a quote is earlier than my post #1290 that is immediately above your post #1291?
> 
> If you mean my post, it is confusing considering there's a short slice of the post being responded to being quoted before my comment.


It was a general comment. When a thread is very active, when a participant here replies (maybe slowly if reply is long), several other posts may occur between a reply and the post being replying to. Without partially quoting the original post, the reply sometimes doesn't appear to be in context. Use of smart phones may add to confusion because it is hard to see the bigger picture!


----------



## Longtimeago

agent99 said:


> Back to the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> This site provides growth rate by country: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research
> Scroll down for the chart.
> It says USA deaths double every 3 days. Canada, every 4 days. World every 6 days.


That site is remarkable agent99 in how it explains everything and in how it allows you to add a country (such as Canada) to see things in relative terms like 'deaths per million' etc. and get a feel for how we are doing.

One factor I think it is important to understand when hearing about current numbers is this one: _ "In an ongoing outbreak the final outcomes – death or recovery – for all cases is not yet known. The time from symptom onset to death ranges from 2 to 8 weeks for COVID-19.1 This means that some people who are currently infected with COVID-19 will die at a later date. As we explain below, this needs to be kept in mind when comparing the current number of deaths with the current number of cases." _

The implications attached to that are significant. I've been trying to find how long it takes to run its course and this is the first answer I have come across. Up to 8 weeks is significant indeed. It means to me that the number of deaths we see reported today relative to the number of confirmed cases is meaningless. We have to wait up to 2 MONTHS to be able to compare them. ie. IF 100 new cases are reported today, the only way to know how many of those 100 die, will be to wait 2 months and then see how many of them actually did die.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> An hour can be a long time in critical situation.


Andrewf, first of all, I did not call my town 'Utopian'. If you look you will see that it was another poster who called it that. 
I am not 'bragging' about my town, I freely admit that when we moved here, it was for the 'value for money' that real estate prices here provided. We got more for less in other words than we could get elsewhere. It was only after moving here that we discovered the many pros and few cons of doing so. 

As it happens, the pros of living here under the current situation are pros no one could have anticipated but they do exist and my saying they exist is simply telling it like it is. That some here take it as denigrating where they live, is really about their wanting to 'hit back'. A sign of what? Insecurity? Envy? Immaturity?

Now having tried to suggest I might lack access to medical care and having had a response to that that shows no such lack of access, you want to grasp at straws by saying, "An hour can be a long time in critical situation."? Do you really want me to blow that objection out of the water for you too?

The ambulance station is literally a 2 minute drive from our home. So that tells you how long it will take for a Paramedic to get to us if needed. That assumes of course that we have let a medical condition get to the point of needing immediate help. That would apply for say a heart attack and the driving time from our home to the hospital in an ambulance would then be perhaps 20 minutes maximum.

In the case of this virus, I would expect that most people would have started the process of phoning their doctor or the Public Health Office to report their symptoms and been advised whether to go for testing etc. before their condition got so bad they needed to call for an ambulance and immediate transportation to the hospital and an ICU unit. Generally speaking, there are not going to be many people who contract this virus who will need immediate transportation to a hospital. So how in regards to this virus, is, 'an hour a long time'?

You're grasping at a straw with that objection andrewf.


----------



## sags

A bit of good news coming out.

Clinical trials have started for a possible vaccine. Clinical trials are underway for possible treatments.

The use of the malaria drug combination is showing some promise, and is approved in the most serious cases.

Our university hospital research department has a new test that only takes 15 minutes. That would be huge as it now takes 5-7 days to get results.


----------



## sags

We have an elderly couple a couple doors down and both went to emergency department last week. He has a cancerous brain tumor and there was blood in his urine and she has severe liver damage and problems. Both were sent home without any treatment or diagnostic evaluations.

I guess the hospitals are tying to set up off-site places for non-COVID patients. They must be expecting a big influx of COVID patients this week.


----------



## Longtimeago

Apparently, truck drivers coming across the border with goods are being treated like 'pariahs' by some people. Premier Ford announced that all the OnRoute restaurants along the 401 and 400 highways would be allowed to remain open.








Coronavirus: Ontario OnRoute locations still open, seating areas blocked off | Globalnews.ca


"Our priority amidst the uncertainty of COVID-19 continues to be the health and safety of our customers who rely on OnRoute, ensuring you have somewhere safe and clean to stop on your journey."




globalnews.ca





I can't find a link but heard a reporter bringing up the subject that drivers are reporting however that they are even being told in some cases that they can't use the washroooms.

If you think about it, we need these drivers and they do have to eat and use bathrooms somewhere. With normal restaurants closed, where are they supposed to go?


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> We have an elderly couple a couple doors down and both went to emergency department last week. He has a cancerous brain tumor and there was blood in his urine and she has severe liver damage and problems. Both were sent home without any treatment or diagnostic evaluations.
> 
> I guess the hospitals are tying to set up off-site places for non-COVID patients. They must be expecting a big influx of COVID patients this week.


What did they go to Emergency for sags? What was their emergency?


----------



## Eclectic12

agent99 said:


> It was a general comment. When a thread is very active, when a participant here replies (maybe slowly if reply is long), several other posts may occur between a reply and the post being replying to. Without partially quoting the original post, the reply sometimes doesn't appear to be in context. Use of smart phones may add to confusion because it is hard to see the bigger picture!


Fair enough ... thanks for the update.


Cheers


----------



## tavogl

My wife works at the Vancouver General Hospital, they're vacating some offices to put beds in them, they're expecting a massive influx of new cases or at least preparing for it.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Apparently, truck drivers coming across the border with goods are being treated like 'pariahs' by some people. Premier Ford announced that all the OnRoute restaurants along the 401 and 400 highways would be allowed to remain open.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: Ontario OnRoute locations still open, seating areas blocked off | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> "Our priority amidst the uncertainty of COVID-19 continues to be the health and safety of our customers who rely on OnRoute, ensuring you have somewhere safe and clean to stop on your journey."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I can't find a link but heard a reporter bringing up the subject that drivers are reporting however that they are even being told in some cases that they can't use the washroooms.
> 
> If you think about it, we need these drivers and they do have to eat and use bathrooms somewhere. With normal restaurants closed, where are they supposed to go?


I know truckers, they're being very careful.
One didn't even visit his family on his day off, he stayed at a local hotel.

Honestly anyone who's working and taking precautions is ok in my book. It's the goofballs having parties and weddings, and travelling, particularly flying, without self quarantining that are the problem.
Myself, I'm working from home on an almost isolation.


----------



## nortel'd

nortel'd said:


> Besides constantly washing your hands and not touching your face, I believe had people even covered their head
> with a bed sheet with two holes cut out to strategically fit over a pair of safety glasses or their own prescription glasses (so you are able to see where you are going), there would be a lot less cases of COVID-19.


*Finally.... 



CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public


*


> Officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are considering altering the official guidance to encourage people to take measures to cover their faces amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a federal official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because it is an ongoing matter of internal discussion and nothing has been finalized. The Washington Post has learned.





> Instead, the recommendation under consideration calls for using do-it-yourself cloth coverings, according to a second official who shared that thinking on a personal Facebook account. It would be a way to help “flatten the curve,” the official noted.





> Such DIY cloth masks would potentially lower the risk that the wearer, if infected, would transmit the virus to other people. Current CDC guidance is that healthy people don’t need masks or face coverings.


I still believe, to lower the COVID-19 curve even more, the CDC needs to encourage wearing something to cover the eyes. 

But one thing at a time. 

Right now, encouraging constantly washing your hands, not touching your face, and social distancing with everyone including the healthy, in the absence of a proper manufactured mask, wear a do-it-yourself cloth covering is better than nothing. .


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> A bit of good news coming out.
> 
> Clinical trials have started for a possible vaccine. Clinical trials are underway for possible treatments.
> 
> The use of the malaria drug combination is showing some promise, and is approved in the most serious cases.
> 
> Our university hospital research department has a new test that only takes 15 minutes. That would be huge as it now takes 5-7 days to get results.


The data shows that the hydrochloraquine and the antiviral aren't effective.
There is hope it will work, but the current data says it has no impact.

Also the malaria drug has serious side effects. Go read up on it

Trump is clearly pushing hope..


----------



## agent99

MrMatt said:


> Also the malaria drug has serious side effects.


I have recently read that too. But do not understand why. 

Those visiting Malaria infested areas take anti-malarial drugs at least a week BEFORE entering a malaria infested area to prevent infection. 

That would be Chloroquin or another similar drug depending on the area and the resistance of the malaria strain. There can be side effects, but I don't think they are very serious? People take them every day. I have taken them myself. Symptoms were usually just slight nausea. Maybe some newer malaria drugs are worse, but still used extensively.

I wouldn't think they would do much good to *treat* Malaria or Covid once infected. They are more for prevention. But what do I know - hopefully proper testing will be done before prescribing to general public.


----------



## Longtimeago

Dr. Tam keeps telling us to, 'stay at home as much as possible.' Yet Toronto's waterfront parks were crowded with people over the weekend. I see a constant flow of vehicles on the main street of our small town, all day, every day. 

'As much as possible' doesn't seem to be registering with people. I am in agreement with Premier Dennis King of PEI. Yesterday he said in a press conference,_ "The time for education is over. The time for enforcement is now," he said.

"You would have to be living under a rock to not understand how severe this is. Our entire lives have been turned upside down in the span of two weeks," he said._

If the people will not do what they are being asked to do for the safety of all, then it is time to force them to do so. By now, everyone has heard what they are expected to be doing and many are obviously ignoring it. In Toronto, people were blatantly ignoring parks being closed and even tearing down signs etc.


https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/irresponsible-and-insensitive-tory-threatens-fines-for-crowds-defying-social-distancing-in-parks


----------



## Prairie Guy

MrMatt said:


> The data shows that the hydrochloraquine and the antiviral aren't effective.
> There is hope it will work, but the current data says it has no impact.
> 
> Also the malaria drug has serious side effects. Go read up on it
> 
> Trump is clearly pushing hope..


The malaria drug has been used for decades and the side effects are well known. Also, according to DOCTORS the use of it to treat the virus has shown tremendous results. Doctors said this...not Trump. He just repeated what doctors have said. Stop spreading misinformation.


----------



## sags

The side effects include heart failure, so it isn't quite so simple when dealing with people who are already severely sick.

Only human clinical testing will determine which drugs are safe for use and effective.

I just watched Trudeau's news conference and unfortunately he is sounding like Donald Trump and hiding the facts from Canadians.

Nurses and doctors today.......right now, are saying they don't have enough protective N95 masks (the only one that works). When asked about it, Trudeau repeated the Dr. Tam rhetoric about washing hands and social distancing. Unhappy with the reply, another reporter asked the same question. He got the same reply. In my opinion, Dr. Tam has not shown a high level of competence or knowledge. The answer to everything is not social distancing and washing hands.

When people are sick those recommendations are of no use. They are of no use for medical personnel lacking protective equipment.

They should be honest with Canadians if they want people to take it as seriously as they must. 

Hiding the facts only makes it worse if people start not trusting their government officials.

People need to know that if they get sick, the nurses and doctors they rely on won't be laying in the next ICU bed.

It is long past the time for "happy talk" and smiles. Ontario's Doug Ford has a much better approach and he isn't smiling about anything.


----------



## off.by.10

sags said:


> It is long past the time for "happy talk".


I don't think Trudeau can do any other kind of talk. Just yesterday, when he announced new measures for businesses and warned there would be "consequences" if some tried to abuse them, his tone was so off that I couldn't help but laugh. This was in French, I don't know if he does better in English as I don't go out of my way to listen to him. Both the Ontario and Quebec PMs do "serious" a lot better IMO.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> The side effects include heart failure, so it isn't quite so simple when dealing with people who are already severely sick.
> 
> Only human clinical testing will determine which drugs are safe for use and effective.
> 
> I just watched Trudeau's news conference and unfortunately he is sounding like Donald Trump and hiding the facts from Canadians.
> 
> Nurses and doctors today.......right now, are saying they don't have enough protective N95 masks (the only one that works). When asked about it, Trudeau repeated the Dr. Tam rhetoric about washing hands and social distancing. Unhappy with the reply, another reporter asked the same question. He got the same reply. In my opinion, Dr. Tam has not shown a high level of competence or knowledge. The answer to everything is not social distancing and washing hands. When people are sick those recommendations are of no use.
> 
> They should be honest with Canadians if they want people to take it as seriously as they must. Hiding the facts only makes it worse if people start not trusting their government officials.
> 
> People need to know that if they get sick, the nurses and doctors they rely on won't be laying in the next ICU bed.
> 
> It is long past the time for "happy talk" and smiles. Ontario's Doug Ford has a much better approach and he isn't smiling about anything.


While I agree our healthcare people need to be properly protected sags I also realize that they are people just like any others and they are as open to fear etc. as anyone else. 

In some cases, they have been asking to be given N95 masks to wear when they are in fact not needed for their protection when doing some particular task. You've got a union head on one side saying, 'we want maximum protection even if we don't need it' and the WHO saying, 'you don't need an N95 for droplet protection, only for airborne protection such as when a patient is intubated.'








Nurses say changes in rules about face masks are putting them at risk


Nurses fear they are more vulnerable to becoming infected with novel coronavirus as a result of new Ontario guidelines about protective equipment, says an Ottawa intensive care nurse.




ottawacitizen.com





I would be all in favour of giving everyone N95 masks even if it were only to allay fears but in the real world there are simply not enough masks to do that.

It always annoys me when people want to tell us about a problem but they never actually have a solution to offer that is POSSIBLE to provide. In the link above, you have the union guy saying, 'we want N95 masks to use all the time.' Where does he propose they come from?


----------



## gmail

Prairie Guy said:


> The malaria drug has been used for decades and the side effects are well known. Also, according to DOCTORS the use of it to treat the virus has shown tremendous results. Doctors said this...not Trump. He just repeated what doctors have said. Stop spreading misinformation.


prairie guy - before you get your back up, I like Trump too, ok?
but, I haven't seen where doctors are saying the malaria drug has had tremendous results treating the virus. I hope that's right. can you provide a link or something please?


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> That would be Chloroquin or another similar drug depending on the area and the resistance of the malaria strain. There can be side effects, but I don't think they are very serious? People take them every day. I have taken them myself. Symptoms were usually just slight nausea. Maybe some newer malaria drugs are worse, but still used extensively.


Mental health can't be quantified or measured like a temperature or other symptoms. It's all based on what the patient says. Many soldiers claim to get nightmares, hallucinations, other permanent psychological effects from anti-malaria drugs

Not everyone is affected and because it's all based on soldier explanation - the government refuses to pay soldiers for medical damages. So now they just explain that there could be a small risk of permanent mental health issues, but at least you don't get malaria

Unless you're in a high risk group or location it's not really worth considering


----------



## Parkuser

gmail said:


> prairie guy - before you get your back up, I like Trump too, ok?
> but, I haven't seen where doctors are saying the malaria drug has had tremendous results treating the virus. I hope that's right. can you provide a link or something please?


Prairie Guy will provide you with a quote that this COVID thing is a hoax. 

But here is one quote:
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-versus-covid-19/ 
entitled: Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin versus COVID-19: Grift, conspiracy theories, and another bad study by Didier Raoult.

Myself, I've switched from beer to gin and tonic, because, who knows?


----------



## sags

My wife was an RN who worked in isolation units and still has a couple of N95 masks from the SARS outbreak.

I asked her if the N95 is standard equipment in a hospital and she said no. It is only used for viral outbreaks.

The nurses only use the common surgery masks in isolation units because it protects the patient from the nurse bringing bacteria or germs into the room.

The surgical mask only prevents exhaling the virus. It does not protect inhaling the virus.

The difference between a surgical mask and an N95 is that the N95 is form fitted and it is made of fibres that the virus sticks to.

The COVID enters into the body and is very sticky. It travels to the lungs and lodges there by adhering to lung tissue.

An N95 protects the nurse from the patient, while a surgical mask protects the patient from the nurse.

I guess this is why there isn't a large supply of N95 masks in hospitals. They seldom use them.

Without N95 masks, the healthcare workers are very exposed to infection of the virus.


----------



## cainvest

Parkuser said:


> Myself, I've switched from beer to gin and tonic, because, who knows?


Just an FYI .. from what I read it takes 20 litres of tonic water to equal one dose of malaria medication.


----------



## sags

In the US, nurses are reporting infected people with symptoms that haven't been reported in other countries.

Loss of taste and smell, nausea, diarrhea, and younger ages requiring ICU care. 

Scientists are trying to find out why patients are showing such a wide array of symptoms.

When people get the seasonal flu, they all generally have the same symptoms. This virus is different.


----------



## Eclectic12

agent99 said:


> ... Those visiting Malaria infested areas take anti-malarial drugs at least a week BEFORE entering a malaria infested area to prevent infection.
> 
> That would be Chloroquin or another similar drug depending on the area and the resistance of the malaria strain. There can be side effects, but I don't think they are very serious?


Previous malaria drugs like mefloquine have reports of depression, night terrors, aggressive behaviour, suicide and brain damage.

A former US Army doctor who has spent a career helping veterans who believe they were permanently harmed by malaria drugs said two medications being considered to treat the COVID-19 coronavirus could cause brain damage and other long-term health problems in some "susceptible individuals."

The Mayo Clinic says Chloroquin can cause heart problems including changes to your heart rhythm, hypoglycemia (low blood sugar) which may be life-threatening, vision problems, extrapyramidal disorders (one is to watch for difficulty in speaking, drooling, loss of balance control, muscle trembling, jerking, or stiffness, restlessness, shuffling walk, stiffness of the limbs, twisting movements of the body, or uncontrolled movements ), among other things.

IIRC, a friend said he experienced hallucinations as well as being suicidal. 


It's good that it went well for you but it doesn't for everyone.


Cheers


----------



## cainvest

Eclectic12 said:


> It's good that it went well for you but it doesn't for everyone.


As with almost any medication prescibed today, you hope the benefits outweight the possible side effects. Even yearly flu shots have a small percentage of rare but serious side effects.


----------



## agent99

cainvest said:


> As with almost any medication prescibed today, you hope the benefits outweight the possible side effects. Even yearly flu shots have a small percentage of rare but serious side effects.


If you ever watch the ads for medications on US TV, they have to include all the possible side effects the drugs may have. Usually quite extensive and enough to scare anyone off using them! But they still get used extensively.

Even with the drugs available for malaria prevention and treatment, more people likely die from malaria than will die from Covid-19. Just not in Western countries, so we don't hear much about it. (405,000 deaths in 2018, many of them children)


----------



## Prairie Guy

gmail said:


> prairie guy - before you get your back up, I like Trump too, ok?
> but, I haven't seen where doctors are saying the malaria drug has had tremendous results treating the virus. I hope that's right. can you provide a link or something please?


There are plenty of reports...here's just one of them:

Chloroquine, an old malaria drug, may help treat novel coronavirus, doctors say


----------



## Prairie Guy

Parkuser said:


> Prairie Guy will provide you with a quote that this COVID thing is a hoax.


Just because you believe everything the media tells you doesn't mean that I'm that gullible.


----------



## Prairie Guy

cainvest said:


> As with almost any medication prescibed today, you hope the benefits outweight the possible side effects. Even yearly flu shots have a small percentage of rare but serious side effects.


They know the side effects because the drug has been in use for decades, so caution will be used if they decide to use it.


----------



## Eclectic12

m3s said:


> Mental health can't be quantified or measured like a temperature or other symptoms. It's all based on what the patient says. Many soldiers claim to get nightmares, hallucinations, other permanent psychological effects from anti-malaria drugs ...


My friend had hallucinations as well as became suicidal so while there many be many more cases from many more soldiers required to take the drug, it happens to civilians as well.

Cheers


----------



## m3s

Lots of people claim to have psychological impacts from anti-malaria drugs

Soldiers have tried for eons to claim medical pensions from it. But you can't really prove the anti malaria drug was the cause..

I'll take my chances with the coronavirus but maybe for people with underlying issues..


----------



## Eclectic12

agent99 said:


> If you ever watch the ads for medications on US TV, they have to include all the possible side effects the drugs may have. Usually quite extensive and enough to scare anyone off using them! But they still get used extensively ...


Sure ... but how many covid 19 patients in Canada and the US are at risk of dying of malaria?

We are, after all, talking about using the malaria drugs here. Which is also where my friend was when he suffered serious side effects that can easily be dismissed as "they had to include it but no one gets it".

Maybe you are missing that my point is serious side effects are why caution and medical advice is needed?

I have no idea whether the malaria drugs properly administered will be worth it. What I was trying to point is is that while your side effect was slight nausea, others can and have had far worse.


IIRC, I saw references where the gov't has noticed malaria drugs flying off the shelves where the gov't health authorities are concerned that people are self-dosing and potentially adding to the strain on their medical system.

There's also a report that I'll have to find again that indicates the promising study for SARS but had a medical expert commenting that malaria drugs have been tried on virus after virus where the effective dose is in the lethal range for humans. If I find it again, I'll post the link.


Cheers


----------



## m3s

Temporary nausea and other minor inconveniences are just that

The psychological effects of some drugs can be permanent


----------



## agent99

Eclectic12 said:


> Sure ... but how many covid 19 patients in *Canada and the US* are at risk of dying of malaria?


There, you have just illustrated the problem. Luckily, there are people who do have concern for the disease and those affected by it. For example, Malaria

But this has nothing to do with Covid-19, other than possible use of same widely used drugs. So maybe time to give up the couch surfing and choose another subject


----------



## Parkuser

cainvest said:


> Just an FYI .. from what I read it takes 20 litres of tonic water to equal one dose of malaria medication.


Yes, and this is good. Obviously you are not familiar with homeopathic medicines. The more diluted is the active ingredient the more potent the medicine is. When you add to it a disinfectant, such as an ethyl alcohol, the virus is hit with a double whammy. People who are never fooled by the fake-news mainstream press, and there are many such wise people on this board, will surely confirm it.


----------



## andrewf

Parkuser said:


> Yes, and this is good. Obviously you are not familiar with homeopathic medicines. The more diluted is the active ingredient the more potent the medicine is. When you add to it a disinfectant, such as an ethyl alcohol, the virus is hit with a double whammy. People who are never fooled by the fake-news mainstream press, and there are many such wise people on this board, will surely confirm it.


Apparently the alcohol concentration has to be at least 60% to be effective as a disinfectant, so go easy on the tonic water.


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> The malaria drug has been used for decades and the side effects are well known. Also, according to DOCTORS the use of it to treat the virus has shown tremendous results. Doctors said this...not Trump. He just repeated what doctors have said. Stop spreading misinformation.


I'm just pointing out that DOCTORS have said they don't have statistical proof that it works. I'm NOT saying it doesn't work. I'm saying at this time there is no data that it does work. Also I have heard that the existing data says it doesn't, but they're going to continue working.
I'm just concerned that there is so much frenzy here, disproportionate resources will be allocated, and one could argue they are. As well it IS leading to people hoarding it, or even taking similar medications in a poorly thought out attempt to self-treat.

I'm not sure why you're capitalizing Doctors, but the reality is that we don't have good data on the efficacy. Care to point to any evidence to support your claimed "tremendous" results?
What I've heard from early testing is that the data isn't showing superior outcomes. 

Just because some people think it works, even doctors, doesn't mean that it does. 
We need the data. They are hopeful, and preparing, but quite honestly the data that it does work simply isn't there.


FYI, there will always be anecdotal evidence.
There are lots of treatments that turned out not to have the effect we thought they did.

We need data for the use of anti-malarials.


----------



## sags

Our landlord sent all their tenants an email today.

Pay your rent by April 1st and you get a 2% discount. They must be expecting a bunch of defaults tomorrow.

It will be interesting to hear the news tomorrow night.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Our landlord sent all their tenants an email today.
> 
> Pay your rent by April 1st and you get a 2% discount. They must be expecting a bunch of defaults tomorrow.
> 
> It will be interesting to hear the news tomorrow night.


That seems extremely nice of a landlord. 

I don't understand why there would be any question why someone wouldn't pay their rent? They simply draw from their one year emergency funds that they've built up and that's that. Surely people live within their means and have an emergency fund?

ltr


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Pay your rent by April 1st and you get a 2% discount. They must be expecting a bunch of defaults tomorrow.


Look at the date ... Classic April Fools joke!


----------



## Eclectic12

agent99 said:


> There, you have just illustrated the problem. Luckily, there are people who do have concern for the disease and those affected by it. For example, Malaria ...


You must be really bored and/or something else to mistake a comment about covid patients stuck in NA as meaning malaria isn't a problem in other parts of the world.



agent99 said:


> ... But this has nothing to do with Covid-19, other than possible use of same widely used drugs. So maybe time to give up the couch surfing and choose another subject


Not sure why you don't like that some have serious reactions to malaria drugs so going slow with testing them is likely a safer route.

IAC, the point of discussion forms is comments so I'll comment on the topics I please, whether you think it's good thing or not.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

Returning to Covid 19 ... I have now passed my fourteen day quarantine at home since returning from the US. Maybe it's because we aren't crowded in like a condo or apartment building but everyone has been distancing themselves that I have seen walking/biking/jogging by.


Cheers


----------



## gmail

Prairie Guy said:


> There are plenty of reports...here's just one of them:
> 
> Chloroquine, an old malaria drug, may help treat novel coronavirus, doctors say


thanks, i read that fairly quickly, but it didnt seem to indicate doctors saying there were "tremendous results" as you say. Is there anywhere that says this more emphatically. I have a personal reason for asking this and I'd really appreciate some more definitive information on this.


----------



## sags

Since people will be cutting their own hair for awhile, we will likely see more of this style.


----------



## Mukhang pera




----------



## Mukhang pera




----------



## Parkuser




----------



## agent99

Well done by whoever re-created that. But they don't quite keep their distances!


----------



## bgc_fan

Mukhang pera said:


> View attachment 20077


Personally, I like one of the Italian mayors asking why people are calling in mobile hairdressers... paraphrase was something like "Why do you need to fix your hair? Don't worry about your hair, it will be a closed casket funeral. No one will care about your hair."


----------



## Longtimeago

like_to_retire said:


> That seems extremely nice of a landlord.
> 
> I don't understand why there would be any question why someone wouldn't pay their rent? They simply draw from their one year emergency funds that they've built up and that's that. Surely people live within their means and have an emergency fund?
> 
> ltr


You are of course being 'tongue in cheek' with that comment like_to_retire. With 48% of Canadians only $200 away from insolvency, it isn't just rent they won't be paying. Yet again, the more responsible citizens will be expected to bail them out from their own irresponsible behaviour.

I realize there are some people who earn a very low income and have no way to get out of living from pay cheque to pay cheque but anyone who earns a decent living and yet at the same time runs a credit card balance and only pays the minimum payment every month, do not deserve any sympathy or help from anyone, whether it be their landlord or the taxpayer. Maybe being homeless for a few months would teach them something about fiscal responsibility for when they do go back to work.

I see these people being interviewed on TV news saying, 'I'm outta work, I can't pay my rent.' Like you, I say, who's fault is that? It isn't the landlord's fault that's for sure. A few I can excuse, the majority I cannot.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eclectic12 said:


> Returning to Covid 19 ... I have now passed my fourteen day quarantine at home since returning from the US. Maybe it's because we aren't crowded in like a condo or apartment building but everyone has been distancing themselves that I have seen walking/biking/jogging by.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Did you not see the videos and photos of the parks in Toronto over the weekend Eclectic12? Far too many people are NOT following the advise we are being given. People flocked to Toronto parks this weekend despite orders to stay home and social distance

Meanwhile, instead of focusing on this and other examples and hammering the message, 'stay home as much as possible' repeatedly, our TV media focuses on some jerk organizing a rent strike of fiscally irresponsible people. Probably the exact same people that are out on the beaches. 

It is now time to MANDATE the 'stay at home as much as possible' advice. Start fining people who have no acceptable reason for being out as is happening in other countries like France and Italy. There is no shortage of both the simply stupid and those who consciously refuse to follow the advice we are being given.








Italy charges more than 40,000 people with violating lockdown


Minority continue to flout decree as nation records biggest daily rise in coronavirus deaths




www.theguardian.com













French people ignored officials' warnings to isolate themselves because of the coronavirus. Now they need a form to leave the house.


People in France must have a document justifying why they're outside, even just for a walk or to go to a shop, after they refused to stay indoors.




www.businessinsider.com





If you want to gain an understanding of just how stupid people can be, you have to look no farther than Toronto's waterfront this last weekend or even moreso, the NYC harbour when the Hospital Ship Comfort arrived there. The epicentre of the virus in the USA and people were flocking to take photos with their cellphones of the ship. 








'WHAT ARE YOU PEOPLE DOING?!': New Yorkers Earn Scorn For Flocking to See Navy Hospital Ship


New Yorkers who have flocked to see the Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort, which arrived in New York City on Monday, are now being scorned for failing to socially distance amid the coronavirus outbreak.




www.mediaite.com





Time to mandate, fine, imprison if necessary, those who flout the stay at home advice.


----------



## m3s

My 'hood has a major influx of out-of-state plates and more people out walking/jogging/socializing and sitting around on the beach than ever. Also pretty much everyone is considered essential including the golf course maintenance, landscaping and construction. All understandable I suppose but kind of absurd.


----------



## sags

Why are so many people broke ? Google "wealth gap" and "income gap".

The inevitable has arrived. This crisis is revealing the rot that has undermined the pillars of society.


----------



## Longtimeago

Another problem I now see beginning to manifest is issues with the attention span of the public and boredom. 

The public is notorious for a short attention span these days. Even those who are following the advice to stay home as much as possible, have only been doing so for a couple of weeks. It is now looking highly likely that the virus is going to be around for a while yet, as in months. It will not be completely under control until we have a vaccine and that is probably at least a year away from the point at which it could be widely administered to people, even just those at high risk.

Try to picture what it will be like if people are still being told to stay home, even if mandated to stay at home, say 3 months from now in July. It is not inconceivable for that to be the case and it is not inconceivable in my opinion that the government will have to declare martial law in order to enforce it by then.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Why are so many people broke ?



They spend more than they make. 

Just like our government.

ltr


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> Why are so many people broke ? Google "wealth gap" and "income gap".


There are millions of people at the low end of the "wealth gap" that don't need a bail out. I'm one of them. I retired at 53 and am living comfortably on a monthly income that is so modest that most people would panic if they only had that. Even still, had I still been working I would have been okay being out of work for at least a year.

It has nothing to do with the wealth gap. It has everything to do with income and expenses.


----------



## Money172375

Had our scheduled Walmart grocery pick up today. They didn’t fill our milk and meat order so my wife went inside as well. We’re about 90 mins from toronto. very little social distancing. I witnessed many families with kids and/or couples going out together. Saw 3 teenagers helping someone (their mom?) in a wheelchair going into the Walmart. Not sure what her condition was, but the optics were not confidence inspiring.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> You are of course being 'tongue in cheek' with that comment like_to_retire. With 48% of Canadians only $200 away from insolvency, it isn't just rent they won't be paying. Yet again, the more responsible citizens will be expected to bail them out from their own irresponsible behaviour.
> 
> I realize there are some people who earn a very low income and have no way to get out of living from pay cheque to pay cheque but anyone who earns a decent living and yet at the same time runs a credit card balance and only pays the minimum payment every month, do not deserve any sympathy or help from anyone, whether it be their landlord or the taxpayer. Maybe being homeless for a few months would teach them something about fiscal responsibility for when they do go back to work.
> 
> I see these people being interviewed on TV news saying, 'I'm outta work, I can't pay my rent.' Like you, I say, who's fault is that? It isn't the landlord's fault that's for sure. A few I can excuse, the majority I cannot.


I have had low income in the past. I never have lived paycheque to paycheque. I think most people don't understand how to get to that place. It is a matter of living below your means for a period of time until you have that cushion. Home-made rice and beans for dinner. Having a roommate. Etc. I seem way too many 'poor' people with iPhones with $80 Rogers plans.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> If you want to gain an understanding of just how stupid people can be, you have to look no farther than Toronto's waterfront this last weekend or even moreso, the NYC harbour when the Hospital Ship Comfort arrived there. The epicentre of the virus in the USA and people were flocking to take photos with their cellphones of the ship.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'WHAT ARE YOU PEOPLE DOING?!': New Yorkers Earn Scorn For Flocking to See Navy Hospital Ship
> 
> 
> New Yorkers who have flocked to see the Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort, which arrived in New York City on Monday, are now being scorned for failing to socially distance amid the coronavirus outbreak.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mediaite.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Time to mandate, fine, imprison if necessary, those who flout the stay at home advice.


I know you like to post specific "doom and gloom" examples but overall the number of people out and about here has dropped significantly. Also, most people around here are respecting the 2m distance guideline in stores and outside.


----------



## Beaver101

Mukhang pera said:


> View attachment 20077


 ... cute, I kinda like that style on a dude. At least he's well-shaved and no f-mustache..


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Since people will be cutting their own hair for awhile, we will likely see more of this style.
> 
> View attachment 20076


 ... what's wrong with that style? Better than being bald (no offence to baldies though).


----------



## sags

LOL...how ironic that it is low income folks keeping the stores and services open, while rich people post pictures of themselves "self isolating"on yachts.


----------



## agent99

cainvest said:


> I know you like to post specific "doom and gloom" examples but overall the number of people out and about here has dropped significantly. Also, most people around here are respecting the 2m distance guideline in stores and outside.


Thinking in USA and probably soon too in Canada, is moving toward us wearing masks whenever we are out and about. It makes a lot of sense and Asians realized that long ago.

I could never see the sense in the 2m distance requirement. I am sure it had some scientific basis. Like how far a droplet could travel from a stationary source. But people are not stationary sources of such aerosol droplets. Even if you keep 2m apart in a store, you could travel through air that contains aerosols left by a person that was there just before you. 

I Googled the subject and it has been discussed a lot. Even well before current crisis.

Here is one link: How Far Can A Sneeze Spread Germs? Some excerpts:



> They found the average sneeze or cough can send around 100,000 contagious germs into the air at speeds up to 100 miles per hour.





> “Given the small size of bioaerosol droplets (diameter less than the width of a human hair), they can remain suspended in the air for prolonged periods of time, from seconds to weeks,” said Haddrell.


----------



## potato69

Here's my prediction:

Florida (god waiting room) is going to be FAR the worst affected in North America and will end up having the highest number of deaths per capita of any state in the union.People don't get that all active case are 10-days out of date and deaths are 14-20 days out of date. In florida I don't think the peak is going to hit until 90% of the population is affected because I have zero faith that right wing nutters that make up a large proportion of the population will do any physical distancing that is currently our only tool to reduce the speed and spread of the virus.

Florid just did a lock down with a caveat:
"In his executive order, Governor  @RonDeSantisFL has added the following to the "essential activities" list: "Attending religious services conducted in churches, synagogues, & houses of worship." We know that religious services have helped to spread the coronavirus."

Religious conservative nutters are going to kill a lot of people.










*The Latest: Wolf expands stay-at-home order for Pennsylvania*
The Latest on the coronavirus pandemic. The new coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms for most people. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can...







apnews.com


----------



## sags

The government knows we should all be wearing masks. 

They have finally admitted they aren't making it mandatory because they are saving the masks for healthcare workers.


----------



## Prairie Guy

potato69 said:


> Here's my prediction:
> 
> Florida (god waiting room) is going to be FAR the worst affected in North America and will end up having the highest number of deaths per capita of any state in the union.People don't get that all active case are 10-days out of date and deaths are 14-20 days out of date. In florida I don't think the peak is going to hit until 90% of the population is affected because I have zero faith that right wing nutters that make up a large proportion of the population will do any physical distancing that is currently our only tool to reduce the speed and spread of the virus.
> 
> Florid just did a lock down with a caveat:
> "In his executive order, Governor  @RonDeSantisFL has added the following to the "essential activities" list: "Attending religious services conducted in churches, synagogues, & houses of worship." We know that religious services have helped to spread the coronavirus."
> 
> Religious conservative nutters are going to kill a lot of people.


That's your prediction. Now here is the reality:

New York is full of leftists who love subways, high rises, and crowded public spaces. Their leftist mayor told them 2 weeks ago to pretend nothing was wrong and to go on living normally. Now they are in the worst shape of any place in the US.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> The government knows we should all be wearing masks.
> 
> They have finally admitted they aren't making it mandatory because they are saving the masks for healthcare workers.


Yeah...Trudeau saved the masks so he could send them to his friends in China.


----------



## MrMatt

gmail said:


> thanks, i read that fairly quickly, but it didnt seem to indicate doctors saying there were "tremendous results" as you say. Is there anywhere that says this more emphatically. I have a personal reason for asking this and I'd really appreciate some more definitive information on this.


The article linked to is pretty clear that they don't have solid clinical data as of March 19th.

What I've heard is that the data doesn't show a statistically significant improvement. Again, that isn't published data either. In short, lots is being said, but there is NO published data that it works.


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> The government knows we should all be wearing masks.
> 
> They have finally admitted they aren't making it mandatory because they are saving the masks for healthcare workers.


The type of masks we would wear are not necessarily the same as those used by health care workers. All we need is a double layer fabric mask with elastic straps to hold it in place. Lady on CBC this morning said she was making them to a hospital's specs. Inside layer of cotton fabric, outer polyester. These would only be used to give to visitors to hospital. Not hospital staff.


----------



## potato69

Prairie Guy said:


> That's your prediction. Now here is the reality:
> 
> New York is full of leftists who love subways, high rises, and crowded public spaces. Their leftist mayor told them 2 weeks ago to pretend nothing was wrong and to go on living normally. Now they are in the worst shape of any place in the US.


really? You're delusional.  From two weeks ago:


----------



## like_to_retire

So even though Mr. Trudeau's wife has recovered from the virus, the Prime Minister remains in isolation. He's gone to his cottage even though Canadians have been warned not do so.

On the other hand, I see Premier Ford uses his own truck to pick up donated masks amid the COVID-19 crisis. It's funny how some people step up in a time of crisis and others hide away.

ltr


----------



## m3s

Gov Cuomo has demonstrated the most leadership I've seen in politics in a long time

While Trump was still downplaying the obvious crisis and berating press in small crowded briefings - Cuomo has been giving inspirational speeches and addressing the press by first name (all spaced out in large warehouses etc)

Many are asking now why someone like Cuomo isn't running for president.


----------



## Prairie Guy

potato69 said:


> really? You're delusional. From two weeks ago:
> View attachment 20079


Cuomo's tweet means nothing. Trump started acting in way back in January but NY Mayor De Blasio told people to act as if nothing was wrong well into March, 2 full moths later. Cuomo was completely silent about De Blasio. Did he agree with him?

You are the one that is delusional.


----------



## potato69

Prairie Guy said:


> Cuomo's tweet means nothing. Trump started acting in way back in January but NY Mayor De Blasio told people to act as if nothing was wrong well into March, 2 full moths later. Cuomo was completely silent about De Blasio. Did he agree with him?
> 
> You are the one that is delusional.


Riiiiight.









PolitiFact - Timeline: How Donald Trump responded to the coronavirus pandemic


Editor's note: We updated the timeline Jan. 19, 2021. In the span of one year, Americans went from hearing about a n




www.politifact.com


----------



## andrewf

like_to_retire said:


> So even though Mr. Trudeau's wife has recovered from the virus, the Prime Minister remains in isolation. He's gone to his cottage even though Canadians have been warned not do so.
> 
> On the other hand, I see Premier Ford uses his own truck to pick up donated masks amid the COVID-19 crisis. It's funny how some people step up in a time of crisis and others hide away.
> 
> ltr


He was living with someone with the virus, so he continues to follow medical advice to isolate. Wife and kids went to 'the cottage' probably to get out of his hair.


----------



## andrewf

Prairie Guy said:


> That's your prediction. Now here is the reality:
> 
> New York is full of leftists who love subways, high rises, and crowded public spaces. Their leftist mayor told them 2 weeks ago to pretend nothing was wrong and to go on living normally. Now they are in the worst shape of any place in the US.


Trump was promising that we would peak at 15 people in the US and didn't want to disembark citizens from that cruise ship off California because it would make the stats look bad. De Blasio hasn't acquitted himself well, but Trump has been a disaster. Now Trump is bragging that 'only' 200k Americans will die.


----------



## andrewf

Prairie Guy said:


> Cuomo's tweet means nothing. Trump started acting in way back in January but NY Mayor De Blasio told people to act as if nothing was wrong well into March, 2 full moths later. Cuomo was completely silent about De Blasio. Did he agree with him?
> 
> You are the one that is delusional.



Trump was saying last week that this is 'just a flu'. You can't re-write history.


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> Gov Cuomo has demonstrated the most leadership I've seen in politics in a long time
> 
> While Trump was still downplaying the obvious crisis and berating press in small crowded briefings - Cuomo has been giving inspirational speeches and addressing the press by first name (all spaced out in large warehouses etc)
> 
> Many are asking now why someone like Cuomo isn't running for president.


The Dems have really screwed up. Biden is DOA as a candidate. But parachuting in Cuomo is not going to look good to either Bernie or Biden supporters. Unless Biden bows out for 'health reasons' etc. and annoints Cuomo...


----------



## m3s

Cuomo can't enter in 2020 but I could see it in 2024. With Trump likely to be re-elected vs Biden/Bernie and that would make 2024 wide open for Dems. In 2024 Cuomo would still be a spring chicken compared to Biden/Bernie at 77/78


----------



## agent99

like_to_retire said:


> So even though Mr. Trudeau's wife has recovered from the virus
> ltr


Disappointed. I won't even quote the whole of that message. Really... What can I say. Cheap political pot-shots while the world as we know it is falling apart.


----------



## Prairie Guy

m3s said:


> Cuomo can't enter in 2020 but I could see it in 2024. With Trump likely to be re-elected vs Biden/Bernie and that would make 2024 wide open for Dems. In 2024 Cuomo would still be a spring chicken compared to Biden/Bernie at 77/78


Biden's mental health has gone so far downhill so fast that he can no longer navigate a 30 second interview that's prepared in advance and rehearsed without looking at notes or stumbling over his words.
Sanders refuses to release his health records and he's 78 and has a known heart problem.

Cuomo waited far too long to do anything which is why NY is in such dire circumstances. Now he's basking in the glow of a supportive media that's willing to overlook his mistakes. They'd rather blow smoke for Cuomo than show Trump who is actually getting things done.


----------



## like_to_retire

agent99 said:


> Disappointed. I won't even quote the whole of that message. Really... What can I say. Cheap political pot-shots while the world as we know it is falling apart.


Nothing to do with politics, only the man. Full support if someone's partner is ill, but now that's not the case and he continues to isolate a the cottage, even though all Canadians have been told not to do so.

ltr


----------



## m3s

Prairie Guy said:


> Cuomo waited far too long to do anything which is why NY is in such dire circumstances. Now he's basking in the glow of a supportive media that's willing to overlook his mistakes.


I don't see how he was any slower than other states. No government could easily implement these social controls without confirmed cases and death

What I see is the difference of how people act under pressure. Some step up and others crack


----------



## like_to_retire

m3s said:


> What I see is the difference of how people act under pressure. Some step up and others crack



Yep, some step up and others don't.

ltr


----------



## nortel'd

agent99 said:


> Thinking in USA and probably soon too in Canada, is moving toward us wearing masks whenever we are out and about. It makes a lot of sense and Asians realized that long ago.
> 
> I could never see the sense in the 2m distance requirement. I am sure it had some scientific basis. Like how far a droplet could travel from a stationary source. But people are not stationary sources of such aerosol droplets. Even if you keep 2m apart in a store, you could travel through air that contains aerosols left by a person that was there just before you.
> 
> I Googled the subject and it has been discussed a lot. Even well before current crisis.
> 
> Here is one link: How Far Can A Sneeze Spread Germs? Some excerpts:


🤧😷

_Although surgical masks (and presumably DIY masks) are more leaky than N95 masks, randomized studies that have tracked infection rates have found that surgical masks are just as effective as N95 masks at preventing the transmission of viruses. Researchers don’t know the exact reason for this. However, some scientists hypothesize that masks help, in part, because they prevent us from touching our face. That helps keeps us from “planting” viruses in our mouth, nose, and eye_

The articles I am linking below do not discuss to any length the materials I use , but one does mention paper towels and another talks about cleaning with 70% alcohol.

As long as our personal DIY masks do not get soiled, all we need to do to kill the virus is ..... set aside in a labeled paper bag at 20C for more than 72 hours. I make sure ours sit idle for at least a week!

What Are The Best Materials for Making DIY Masks? - Smart Air Filters
DIY Masks: Is Paper Towel Effective at Blocking Viruses? - Smart Air Filters
What’s a Reliable Way to Disinfect Masks from Viruses Without Harming Effectiveness? - Smart Air Filters


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> So even though Mr. Trudeau's wife has recovered from the virus, the Prime Minister remains in isolation. He's gone to his cottage even though Canadians have been warned not do so.
> 
> On the other hand, I see Premier Ford uses his own truck to pick up donated masks amid the COVID-19 crisis. It's funny how some people step up in a time of crisis and others hide away.
> 
> ltr


When did Trudeau go to his cottage?
The official residence of the prime minister is currently Rideau Cottage, on the Governor Generals Grounds. He's lived there for almost 5 years.

The official PM Cottage is Harrington lake. I've seen most of his press briefings and I think they've all been at Rideau cottage.


----------



## agent99

He didn't go. His wife wisely took the kids and herself away while he continues his isolation.









Trudeau remaining in isolation longer despite wife recovering from coronavirus


Trudeau says the couple took steps to remain apart, but staying at home for another two weeks is prudent because he was sharing a roof with someone who was ill




www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## like_to_retire

agent99 said:


> He didn't go. His wife wisely took the kids and herself away while he continues his isolation.


But weren't Canadians told not to go to their cottages?

ltr


----------



## sags

Renters can't pay their rent this month. They have no savings.

Landlords can't survive if their renter doesn't pay this month rent. They have no savings.

Corporations can't maintain dividends. They have no savings.

Governments pile on their debt. They have no savings.

OFSI has suspended commuted values to protect pension funds from the increase in withdrawals. People have no savings.

This is a fine mess we have gotten ourselves into comrades......


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> Cuomo can't enter in 2020 but I could see it in 2024. With Trump likely to be re-elected vs Biden/Bernie and that would make 2024 wide open for Dems. In 2024 Cuomo would still be a spring chicken compared to Biden/Bernie at 77/78


The Dems can pick whoever they want at the convention. It doesn't even need to be a candidate.


----------



## andrewf

like_to_retire said:


> But weren't Canadians told not to go to their cottages?
> 
> ltr


Does it matter? Do you really expect Trudeau to be an everyman? He's the f-in PM! Do you expect him to sit at home and spend his days clicking refresh on the grocery store website trying to get some shreddies and milk delivered?


----------



## sags

The CDC issued it's first warning on Jan.8

Trump held campaign rallies on Jan 9, Jan 14, Jan 28, Jan 30, Feb 10, Feb 19, Feb 20, Feb 21, Mar 7, and Mar 8.

Trump golfed on Jan 18, Jan 19, Feb 1, Feb 15, Mar 7, and Mar 8.

The first time he admitted the coronavirus might be a problem was Mar 13.

Trump semi-closed the US border to some Chinese travelers after 45 other countries, including the Cook Islands, had already done so.

Trump is a fake leader who gets his fake intelligence from fake journalists on fake Fox News. It is all fake.

Hundreds of thousands of Americans could die because of Trump's lack of leadership.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

cainvest said:


> Look at the date ... Classic April Fools joke!


As a landlord I used to do this all the time, it was standard in my leases. Reason, you can give a discount for prompt payment but are not allowed to charge a penalty for late payment. So your rent is $1020 with a 2% discount for prompt payment NOT $1000 with a $20 late payment penalty. It cost nothing to build this into the lease and it encouraged tenants to pay their rent on time.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

sags said:


> The CDC issued it's first warning on Jan.8
> 
> Trump held campaign rallies on Jan 9, Jan 14, Jan 28, Jan 30, Feb 10, Feb 19, Feb 20, Feb 21, Mar 7, and Mar 8.
> 
> Trump golfed on Jan 18, Jan 19, Feb 1, Feb 15, Mar 7, and Mar 8.
> 
> The first time he admitted the coronavirus might be a problem was Mar 13.
> 
> Trump semi-closed the US border to some Chinese travelers after 45 other countries, including the Cook Islands, had already done so.
> 
> Trump is a fake leader who gets his fake intelligence from fake journalists on fake Fox News. It is all fake.
> 
> Hundreds of thousands of Americans could die because of Trump's lack of leadership.


Compared to the brilliant leadership of Prime Minister Trudeau?


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> Hundreds of thousands of Americans could die because of Trump's lack of leadership.


Anyone who bothered to look could find out that deaths due to Covid-19 were doubling every 2-6 days in many many countries. USA was every 3 days just a couple of days ago.
Based on what happened elsewhere, they figured NY deaths would peak in about 21days. You need some simple math, but using the USA as a whole that said there would be something like 200,000 deaths at end of the 3 weeks. I am sure Trumps Drs already knew that.
Finally, they provided that information (which had been available for weeks) to the public. I seems it then sank in. Even with Trump.
No doubt part of reason for markets to go where they have today. 

It will be too late then, but one day it might be an idea to look back and contemplate who or what to blame when your retirement nest eggs have been decimated. That is , if you are still here. 

(Note: General comment - Not aimed at anyone in particular!)


----------



## andrewf

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Compared to the brilliant leadership of Prime Minister Trudeau?


Canada seems to be doing much better than the US, so far. We have far fewer cases and deaths per capita.


----------



## junior minor

I believe it's because we're ''socially distant'' in the first place. There are, in the entire province of Quebec, a tenth of the entire France population although the landmass of said country could fit three time in PQ's superficy.

That being said, it's not exactly as calm as it could be and we are better off ''safer than sorry''.
Here are some recent news, in case you didn't hear,watch, read

Don't gather in Montreal parks or we'll close them, Valérie Plante warns
Security checkpoints added in several Quebec regions to limit the spread of COVID-19
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-gatineau-bridge-border-ontario-quebec-1.5517240

Lots of people are not able to reach their ''cottage&country chalet''

This was released 24 minutes ago, the rest a few days back:


Politics This Morning: Trudeau to recall Parliament again to pass further COVID-19 relief measures
The latest on the coronavirus: Canadians on cruise ships to come home; Third death in Saskatchewan, new cases include jail staff 
Ontario, B.C., Quebec begin building makeshift hospitals in preparation for rise in COVID-19 patients
Nature takes back world's empty city streets
This one is just for fun facts  









"Go Home!" Norway PM Orders Norwegians to Leave Mountain Cabins - Life in Norway


Norway's Prime Minister Erna Solberg has told Norwegians who have fled the cities to their mountain cabins to return home. Emergency regulations will be introduced today that could prevent people travelling to cabins. Erna Solberg




www.lifeinnorway.net





Things were even more extreme in Hemsedal, home to Norway's most famous ski resorts. “There will be a complete emergency collapse if there is an outbreak of the coronavirus here,” said Hemsedal's mayor Pål Rørby to NRK. That's because the municipality of just 2,500 people faced an onslaught of 25,000 cabin visitors.


----------



## m3s

The vast majority of quebec and canada is barely populated. Most of the population lives in a few concentrated cities mostly along the southern border

People don't get that exponential growth takes time to pick up. If you align each countries corona count from the date they first reported 100 cases, they all trend up very similar. We have yet to see that line flatten out in Canada. The major difference is the time community spread started.

Overconfidence is very dangerous imo. Lots of americans made lots of excuses for why it was an isolated asian and european problem


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> The major difference is the time community spread started.


And that is a major tipping point IMO. Also note that when community spread is "locally announced" it likely started many days before but on the plus side it takes a short while to gather momentum.


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> But weren't Canadians told not to go to their cottages?
> 
> ltr


Please substantiate the claim that he or his family moved out of the official residence he's lived in for 5 years, to "go to the cottage". 
To be clear, Rideau Cottage, the 22 bedroom mansion that is currently the PMs official residence is not "going to the cottage".

Sheesh, I'm extremely anti-Trudeau.
But he's doing a pretty decent job at an impossible situation.

If you want to bash him, bash him for the attempted power grab in the COVID19 bill.
But to attack him for things he didn't even do.. that's not cool.


----------



## sags

I don't consider the ability to create or change legislation as needed to be a "power grab".

Trudeau now has to recall Parliament to pass the wage subsidy to businesses package. He will have to do it to make any changes to any plans.

One hopes they don't have to wait for Andrew Scheer to fly to Ottawa from Regina again. The last time Trudeau had to sent a military jet to get him.

If the opposition parties want Parliament to pass everything, then they need to remain in Ottawa for the duration of the virus.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> I don't consider the ability to create or change legislation as needed to be a "power grab".
> 
> Trudeau now has to recall Parliament to pass the wage subsidy to businesses package. He will have to do it to make any changes to any plans.
> 
> One hopes they don't have to wait for Andrew Scheer to fly to Ottawa from Regina again. The last time Trudeau had to sent a military jet to get him.
> 
> If the opposition parties want Parliament to pass everything, then they need to remain in Ottawa for the duration of the virus.


The Liberals did overreach asking for a blank cheque for 2 years. A few months at most would be all that could be justified.


----------



## off.by.10

andrewf said:


> The Liberals did overreach asking for a blank cheque for 2 years. A few months at most would be all that could be justified.


Yeah, that was an obvious power grab which would have conveniently negated the fact that they are a minority government. It was despicable. Especially given how slow they have been about everything else in this crisis.


----------



## agent99

andrewf said:


> The Liberals did overreach asking for a blank cheque for 2 years. A few months at most would be all that could be justified.


So now what happens? Does parliament have to be recalled to pass a new bill each time more funding is required? I can see why a blank cheque would be a bone of contention, but with regulations or controls, it could perhaps have been more efficient and safeguarded MPs. 

We don't know how long the virus will persist. It could just be months. But the economic aftermath will be for years.


----------



## sags

All MPs got a nice raise in pay. Trudeau and Scheer are donating their increase to charity. They should have agreed to cancel the raise though.

Since they are recalling Parliament, maybe they could fix that.


----------



## andrewf

We are a parliamentary democracy. Yes. Parliament should make legislation.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> And that is a major tipping point IMO. Also note that when community spread is "locally announced" it likely started many days before but on the plus side it takes a short while to gather momentum.


 We reached that point at least a week ago. 








65% of reported COVID-19 cases in Canada related to community transmission: latest data - National | Globalnews.ca


Community spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, first appeared in British Columbia.




globalnews.ca





And people who find it necessary to make 3 trips to 3 different stores in a week are part of the PROBLEM.

Who do you think is spreading the virus? It isn't just returning travellers although they are part of it, it is people who cannot seem to understand what 'stay at home as much as POSSIBLE' means. 

Are you aware that as much as 25% of those infected remain totally asymptomatic throughout while still being infectious? They don't have to be coughing on people to spread the virus.








Up to 25% of people with COVID-19 may not show symptoms


The data is prompting the CDC to reconsider who should wear face masks.




www.livescience.com





That means ANYONE may be infected and may be infecting others without even knowing it. Stay at home means STAY at home. It is the only real tool we have right now to combat the spread. Everyone must ASSUME they are infected and act accordingly.

Anyone can SELF-JUSTIFY why they have to go out 3 times a week but NO ONE can reconcile that with 'stay home as much as possible'. 

I watch a line of vehicles going through the Timmy's near me all day, every day. No one can tell me that they ALL have an actual NEED to go through Timmy's or an actual NEED to be out at all. They are part of the PROBLEM, not a part of the solution.


----------



## Longtimeago

Comments about Trudeau and the 'Cottage' only show how little fact checking to know what they are talking about, some people do before sticking their foot in their mouth. It also calls into doubt anything else such posters have to say.

This is a thread about Covid-19, it is not a thread for people to try and push their own political agenda ad nauseam.


----------



## sags

I think the health authorities have been doing a poor job of telling people exactly how or where those infected contracted the virus.

We get notification that someone in Oxford/Middlesex County got infected. They don't say where they live or how they got infected.

People should know the places they should avoid and how the virus is being transmitted. Do you have to be facing someone less than 6 feet apart ?

Maybe they aren't saying because they don't know. They often sound unsure of themselves in press conferences and keep repeating the same messages of washing hands etc.

Maybe it is just me, but if someone was infected in the store at the corner, I would like to avoid that store.


----------



## sags

The sun is out here LTA, so people can get out into their backyards and enjoy the warm weather now. They can pretend they are on vacation.

I do feel for those living in highrise buildings with no balconies and windows that won't open. 

My neighbor said her mother is in one and is freaking out. She is afraid to open the door to the hallway.


----------



## andrewf

You often can't be certain, and people are better off being careful altogether, rather the saying you just have to avoid a certain place.


----------



## kcowan2000

sags said:


> Maybe it is just me, but if someone was infected in the store at the corner, I would like to avoid that store.


I think it would be a safe bet that every employee in the grocery store has been infected unless they avoided everyone else within 2 meters. So shoppers need to stay away from that zone unless there is a shield.


----------



## sags

I don't have much faith in WHO or Dr. Tam. Too much politics in their viewpoints.

My original posts starting this thread involved video from Liveleak, which was well ahead of media and authorities.

The same scenes that were in the Liveleak videos are now happening in New York City.

If you want to know what is actually going on.......follow the COVID19 or FluTrackers twitter feed. It is being continually curated to remove fake news.

Be warned.....you will find out things the media isn't saying yet but will in time.


----------



## Longtimeago

I will say it again. We have to assume that everyone has the virus including ourselves. Then act accordingly.

Here is the bottom line to this. It is going to show up in YOUR family before it is over. It is going to infect YOUR relatives near or distant and your friends. And it is not going away anytime soon.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Anyone can SELF-JUSTIFY why they have to go out 3 times a week but NO ONE can reconcile that with 'stay home as much as possible'.
> 
> I watch a line of vehicles going through the Timmy's near me all day, every day. No one can tell me that they ALL have an actual NEED to go through Timmy's or an actual NEED to be out at all. They are part of the PROBLEM, not a part of the solution.


I'm sure in your alarmist point of view everyone should stay home and you're right ... that would indeed slow the spread. I'm sure if they imposed martial law weeks ago, something I gather you'd be real happy about, the numbers would be far less. So why didn't they? Why do they still allow Tim Horton's to be open for that matter? Why do they allow an entire family into a store at one time?

I know you like to provide hindsight solutions ... why didn't you freeze you 12L of milk and 8 loaves of bread? Or why did you go to multiple stores even thought stock is depleted for some items at one of them. I mean everyone can order online for delivery right?


----------



## agent99

kcowan2000 said:


> I think it would be a safe bet that every employee in the grocery store has been infected unless they avoided everyone else within 2 meters. So shoppers need to stay away from that zone unless there is a shield.


That 2meter separation is something I wouldn't hang my hat on. The aerosol droplets from a sneeze are about 1/2 the diameter of a human hair. They do not fall very quickly under gravity. They can stay suspended for a long time. So, if people are moving, say up and down store aisles, there is every possibility of breathing in another persons sneeze or cough aerosol droplets.

Employees are out and about too, so they can't all be behind shields. They should at least be wearing masks as should all the shoppers.

Our self-isolation period is over. But, we are staying out of all stores, because where we live we can. Realize not everyone can. 

I do have an appointment with my surgeon in out of hospital clinic. They are allowing just one person at a time into clinic. That will be my first venture away from home. 

As an aside - I have a SIL who lives in NC. She asked her store about delivery or curbside pickup. Was told, no, we are conducting business as usual!

Take care everyone!


----------



## sags

It sounds like government guaranteed low interest credit lines are on the way. The talk is $10,000 to $12,000 a person.

People can use the money to pay off high interest loans and credit cards. They will be open to everyone through their own bank.

It is a good idea that will cost the government very little.


----------



## agent99

agent99 said:


> Thinking in USA and probably soon too in Canada, is moving toward us wearing masks whenever we are out and about. It makes a lot of sense and Asians realized that long ago.
> 
> I could never see the sense in the 2m distance requirement. I am sure it had some scientific basis. Like how far a droplet could travel from a stationary source. But people are not stationary sources of such aerosol droplets. Even if you keep 2m apart in a store, you could travel through air that contains aerosols left by a person that was there just before you.
> 
> I Googled the subject and it has been discussed a lot. Even well before current crisis.
> 
> Here is one link: How Far Can A Sneeze Spread Germs? Some excerpts:



Looks like US experts are finally rethinking masks and the 2M distancing and realizing the virus can be transferred in many ways: 









Experts tell White House coronavirus can spread through talking or even just breathing | CNN


A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> I'm sure in your alarmist point of view everyone should stay home and you're right ... that would indeed slow the spread. I'm sure if they imposed martial law weeks ago, something I gather you'd be real happy about, the numbers would be far less. So why didn't they? Why do they still allow Tim Horton's to be open for that matter? Why do they allow an entire family into a store at one time?
> 
> I know you like to provide hindsight solutions ... why didn't you freeze you 12L of milk and 8 loaves of bread? Or why did you go to multiple stores even thought stock is depleted for some items at one of them. I mean everyone can order online for delivery right?


I am not an alarmist cainvest, I am a realist with eyes that can see and a brain that can extrapolate from evidence.

This morning in his daily Press Conference, PM Trudeau again re-iterated, 'STAY AT HOME' and specifically said do NOT shop for groceries more than ONCE a week and preferably try for 2 weeks. 

How definitive a statement do you need to have cainvest? He keeps asking us to do as individuals what we should be doing, VOLUNTARILY. I do not WANT martial law but I can see that if people like YOU continue to not do voluntarily what they are being asked to do, then it will become necessary to force everyone to do what they should already be doing.

You have stated here quite boldly that you will do what the law allows you to do until it no longer allows you to do so. It is in fact YOU and those behaving like you, who are asking for martial law to be imposed. YOU are the ones who are saying it is the only way you will comply.


----------



## sags

A debt Jubilee may be coming.









A Debt Jubilee Is the Only Way to Avoid a Depression - Global Research


Even before the novel coronavirus appeared, many American families were falling behind on student loans, auto loans, credit cards and other payments.




www.globalresearch.ca





Written a year ago, but may be more relevant today.



https://seekingalpha.com/article/4239903-year-of-american-jubilee-is-coming


----------



## Longtimeago

Sags, I really don't care about the financial aspects when there are more important aspects to be concerned with. I'll worry about the financial aspects later. Right now, I'm more concerned with getting people to STAY AT HOME and do their part to limit the impact of the virus. There are too many people who are not doing so.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I am not an alarmist cainvest, I am a realist with eyes that can see and a brain that can extrapolate from evidence.
> 
> This morning in his daily Press Conference, PM Trudeau again re-iterated, 'STAY AT HOME' and specifically said do NOT shop for groceries more than ONCE a week and preferably try for 2 weeks.
> 
> How definitive a statement do you need to have cainvest? He keeps asking us to do as individuals what we should be doing, VOLUNTARILY. I do not WANT martial law but I can see that if people like YOU continue to not do voluntarily what they are being asked to do, then it will become necessary to force everyone to do what they should already be doing.
> 
> You have stated here quite boldly that you will do what the law allows you to do until it no longer allows you to do so. It is in fact YOU and those behaving like you, who are asking for martial law to be imposed. YOU are the ones who are saying it is the only way you will comply.


The fact you play up my 3 store visits shows you're an alarmist and not rational. You have no idea what I'm buying and what my exposure is ... everyone in a store is the same to you, whether you're in for 3 mins or 30 mins, all the same in your eyes? So if a person shops "once a week or two" you'll automatically say "good job" right? Yet in store they many be touching many items, rubbing their nose, and browsing like a regular shopping trip. So it's not rational thinking at all on your part, you seem unable to separate or see the real risk factors.

BTW, we just got to that level here in Manitoba as of April 1st. Many work places are closed (by law) and they now recommend limiting shopping runs and one person per family with confirm community spread.


----------



## james4beach

agent99 said:


> Looks like US experts are finally rethinking masks and the 2M distancing and realizing the virus can be transferred in many ways:


I thought this was already known. Speaking with someone is dangerous, because when you open your mouth and talk, a bit of spit comes out. If you are close enough, droplets can land directly on your face.

You have to avoid people and if you're going to talk, it has to be from a distance.

I did wear a mask when I recently went to the grocery store. I plan to wear one each time.


----------



## andrewf

Seems masks are more about protecting others from you rather than protecting you from others. Either way, it helps.


----------



## agent99

James & Andrew. I think you are missing one important point. The 2M rule doesn't help if you move through a cloud of aerosols left by someone that was well away from you a few minutes before. The drops are extremely small and can stay suspended for quite a while. That is when wearing a mask will protect you. And that is the way the experts are now starting to think.

We happen to have several N-95 masks. We are not going out, but if we do, we will wear them. After use they will apparently be safe to re-use after about 4 days. Or they can be subjected to about 70C in an oven for 1/2hr. (making sure they are not in contact with metal)


----------



## Money172375

Premier Ford in Ontario says Canadian modeling that predicts cases/deaths will be released tomorrow and it will be a “wake-up call”.


----------



## kcowan

What bothers me the most about the 2 meter distancing is that The National featured a segment and it was clear that it was a minimum guidance and that the aerosol nature of the spray could linger for much longer. And that talking could cause a transmission albeit it a light dose. So the stay at home guidance is the only foolproof advice.

__
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ftlmgl


----------



## agent99

kcowan said:


> What bothers me the most about the 2 meter distancing is that The National featured a segment and it was clear that it was a minimum guidance and that the aerosol nature of the spray could linger for much longer. And that talking could cause a transmission albeit it a light dose. So the stay at home guidance is the only foolproof advice.


You are right. Stay at home is best first defense. Second is to wear a mask. 

By the way, your flag says you are still in Mexico.


----------



## m3s

kcowan said:


> So the stay at home guidance is the only foolproof advice.


A lot of friends are posting they are going out hiking/motorbiking/road trip etc. Even then you need to buy gas where everyone else buys gas. They just closed the beaches and trail heads here because more were out than usual..

I'm on 2 week minimal staff shift and 2 week work from home quarantine. Idea is that if a shift gets knocked out hopefully the other half in quarantine is not sick. I don't leave the house for 2 weeks and it's in our interest to not have longer shifts


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> The Liberals did overreach asking for a blank cheque for 2 years. A few months at most would be all that could be justified.


That's the point, it was a 2 year blank cheque, which was too much.

They agreed to spend the fist $80 billion within a few days, with a partial parliment. Clearly the opposition isn't holding up reasonable actions.
Even now, across Canada, they're letting the government do pretty much whatever they deem necessary. That doesn't mean they aren't holding them accountable, or ready to put the brakes on it.

As far as having to fly Scheer to Ottawa by military aircraft, I'm completely for that. I have said many times before the major party leaders, ministers and even in some cases critics should have access to government/military transport, as required to do their jobs.

I said this when Harper was PM, I say it now. 

As far as the role of the opposition, we have a minority government, 2/3rds of the country voted against them, and they're spending massive money and dramatically reshaping the country (for good reason). 
The opposition has the essential duty to make sure that the actions are appropriate. The actions the government is taking now are hurting people, and people are going to die because of them. I am hopeful that the actions help more than hurt.

Curiously it seems that Quebec and Alberta, are particularly unhappy with the Trudeau government, while Doug Ford in Ontario seems to be much more supportive of their actions. We live in interesting times.


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> I don't consider the ability to create or change legislation as needed to be a "power grab".
> 
> Trudeau now has to recall Parliament to pass the wage subsidy to businesses package. He will have to do it to make any changes to any plans.
> 
> One hopes they don't have to wait for Andrew Scheer to fly to Ottawa from Regina again. The last time Trudeau had to sent a military jet to get him ...


Do you have some references as I didn't find any for this.




sags said:


> ... If the opposition parties want Parliament to pass everything, then they need to remain in Ottawa for the duration of the virus.


Why?

Our company has ramped up from 10% with the ability to work remotely to 95%. Surely the gov't can do the same for the MPs and senators etc., n'est pas?


Cheers


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> If you want to know what is actually going on.......follow the COVID19 or FluTrackers twitter feed. It is being continually curated to remove fake news.
> 
> Be warned.....you will find out things the media isn't saying yet but will in time.


Reddit feed is showing videos of bodies being burned in the streets because 3rd world governments can't keep up

That confirms the coronovirus count (+1mil) and death count (+50k) is vastly underestimated right now


----------



## Longtimeago

I don't know why people are having such a hard time understanding what is happening. Right at this moment in time, there are doctors in hospitals in New York City who are having to choose, 'does this person get a ventilator and maybe live or does this person get it.' They are choosing who will DIE.

Somehow, people seem to think this could never happen where they live. Those people living in NYC thought so to as did those living in London, England where the same choices are being made. As did those in various other locations around the world where those are or have been being made.

It's called seeing the writing on the walls.

Meanwhile some posters want to post about politics or finances as if that was actually of any importance whatsoever at a time like this.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> I don't know why people are having such a hard time understanding what is happening. Right at this moment in time, there are doctors in hospitals in New York City who are having to choose, 'does this person get a ventilator and maybe live or does this person get it.' They are choosing who will DIE.
> 
> Somehow, people seem to think this could never happen where they live. Those people living in NYC thought so to as did those living in London, England where the same choices are being made. As did those in various other locations around the world where those are or have been being made.
> 
> It's called seeing the writing on the walls.
> 
> Meanwhile some posters want to post about politics or finances as if that was actually of any importance whatsoever at a time like this.


In times like these the politics and finances ARE critical.
Can the politicians manage this crisis? Do we have the finances to ensure we survive it and remain prosperous? Or even just fed?

I do understand the mindset that politics and the economy are abstract terms, but these are just concepts that we use to communicate the complex systems that literally keep us alive.

Lets say the economy collapses, or we get widespread hoarding, or any number of other things, people will die. 
Its very naive and counter productive just to think that politics and the economy are somehow unrelated to our daily lives.

Ontario is planning on building 10 000 ventilators before the end of the month, that's an incredible task and will require significant resources of all types, and could easily be derailed. That's just one of the initiatives. 

Ignoring the political and economic forces at play would doom such a task to failure, don't you see this?


----------



## agent99

agent99 said:


> He didn't go. His wife wisely took the kids and herself away while he continues his isolation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trudeau remaining in isolation longer despite wife recovering from coronavirus
> 
> 
> Trudeau says the couple took steps to remain apart, but staying at home for another two weeks is prudent because he was sharing a roof with someone who was ill
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


It could be that he was given a choice by the health authorities. Like this guy was:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1243872046834225153


----------



## moderator2

Longtimeago said:


> Meanwhile some posters want to post about politics or finances as if that was actually of any importance whatsoever at a time like this.


This is a financial forum about investing


----------



## Rockstarhobbo

Sigh, just when will this end.


----------



## agent99

moderator2 said:


> This is a financial forum about investing


True, and not a place for petty politicking. 

This particular thread is about Covid-19 which does have a VERY large influence on our investments. Our politicians are trying their very best to cope with it, and should be supported in their efforts.

A little humour doesn't hurt either.


----------



## sags

Russia is selling some of their old spacesuits on Ebay.









1960 Original Laika Dog Soviet Matchbox Label Space Cosmonaut Cover Sticker #3 | eBay


Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1960 Original Laika Dog Soviet Matchbox Label Space Cosmonaut Cover Sticker #3 at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!



www.ebay.ca


----------



## kcowan

agent99 said:


> You are right. Stay at home is best first defense. Second is to wear a mask.
> 
> By the way, your flag says you are still in Mexico.


Yes we are self-


agent99 said:


> You are right. Stay at home is best first defense. Second is to wear a mask.
> 
> By the way, your flag says you are still in Mexico.


Yes we are self-isolating in our new condo. Ordering in groceries and some meals.

Returning May 6th on Westjet.


----------



## kcowan

agent99 said:


> It could be that he was given a choice by the health authorities.


More likely he is working on real data that he is holding back from the rest of us. The only irresponsible piece is the weekly trip by one household member when zero trips is the best choice, particularly for the high risk population.


----------



## agent99

kcowan said:


> Yes we are self-isolating in our new condo. Ordering in groceries and some meals.
> 
> Returning May 6th on Westjet.


Do you have acceptable health insurance that would cover Covid-19 while you are in Mexico? 

We were self-isolating in the USA until late March, but once GofC said we should return, we were concerned that staying might affect our coverage. We were also not happy, that the Southern states were not taking this seriously enough. In fact golf courses and beaches are still open down there. No restrictions at supermarkets. Business as usual - almost.


----------



## Longtimeago

moderator2 said:


> This is a financial forum about investing


Umm, you do realize this is in the General Forum which is not necessarily restricted to threads about finances and investing right? It can be threads about totally NON-finance and investing subjects right?


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> In times like these the politics and finances ARE critical.
> Can the politicians manage this crisis? Do we have the finances to ensure we survive it and remain prosperous? Or even just fed?
> 
> I do understand the mindset that politics and the economy are abstract terms, but these are just concepts that we use to communicate the complex systems that literally keep us alive.
> 
> Lets say the economy collapses, or we get widespread hoarding, or any number of other things, people will die.
> Its very naive and counter productive just to think that politics and the economy are somehow unrelated to our daily lives.
> 
> Ontario is planning on building 10 000 ventilators before the end of the month, that's an incredible task and will require significant resources of all types, and could easily be derailed. That's just one of the initiatives.
> 
> Ignoring the political and economic forces at play would doom such a task to failure, don't you see this?


I may have made a strong statement re politics and finances MrMatt on THIS thread but it does not mean I am unaware of the interrelationship of things. I just don't see the need for comments by some posters which obviously bear no relationship to Covid19, the topic of this thread and are in fact simply comments pushing the individuals political viewpoint or personal issues re financial aspects. If for example, someone wants to start a thread on what to do when you are unemployed and can't pay your rent due to the virus, I'm fine with that, start a thread on it. If someone wants to start a thread on how they think Trudeau is not doing a good job, go ahead, start a thread on that. 
But they never do, do they. Instead they try to hijack threads on one topic to spout their opinions of a different topic.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Longtimeago said:


> I don't know why people are having such a hard time understanding what is happening. Right at this moment in time, there are doctors in hospitals in New York City who are having to choose, 'does this person get a ventilator and maybe live or does this person get it.' They are choosing who will DIE.


New York is not out of ventilators. In fact, they have a stockpile of them. Please do some fact checking:
"New York Governor Andrew Cuomo acknowledged Friday the state did have a stockpile of unused ventilators, despite his complaints the federal government was not sending enough."

“Yes, they’re in a stockpile because that’s where they are supposed to be, because we don’t need them yet,” Cuomo said. “We need them for the apex, the apex isn’t here, so we’re gathering them in a stockpile.”









Gov. Andrew Cuomo Admits Stockpile of Thousands of Unused Ventilators


New York Governor Andrew Cuomo acknowledged Friday that the state did have a stockpile of unused ventilators.




www.breitbart.com


----------



## Parkuser

Prairie Guy said:


> New York is not out of ventilators. In fact, they have a stockpile of them. Please do some fact checking:
> "New York Governor Andrew Cuomo acknowledged Friday the state did have a stockpile of unused ventilators, despite his complaints the federal government was not sending enough."
> 
> “Yes, they’re in a stockpile because that’s where they are supposed to be, because we don’t need them yet,” Cuomo said. “We need them for the apex, the apex isn’t here, so we’re gathering them in a stockpile.”


For numerically inclined an interesting link which may explain what Cuomo is thinking:








and one more theoretical






and one for the Prairie Guy.


Engineer intentionally derails train near Navy hospital ship, says ‘USNS Mercy was suspicious’


----------



## sags

They actually have a criminal charge of "train wrecking" ?


----------



## Prairie Guy

Parkuser said:


> For numerically inclined an interesting link which may explain what Cuomo is thinking:


My response was to the false claim that doctors are having to decide right now who will get a ventilator and who will be left to die without one. That's obviously not happening.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> I may have made a strong statement re politics and finances MrMatt on THIS thread but it does not mean I am unaware of the interrelationship of things. I just don't see the need for comments by some posters which obviously bear no relationship to Covid19, the topic of this thread and are in fact simply comments pushing the individuals political viewpoint or personal issues re financial aspects. If for example, someone wants to start a thread on what to do when you are unemployed and can't pay your rent due to the virus, I'm fine with that, start a thread on it. If someone wants to start a thread on how they think Trudeau is not doing a good job, go ahead, start a thread on that.
> But they never do, do they. Instead they try to hijack threads on one topic to spout their opinions of a different topic.


I think that the various political actions in response to COVID19 are absolutely on point with respect to this crisis.

The thing is, it's an impossible problem with no right answer. Much of the outcome will be how people act, and the government is taking unprecedented steps to guide people to certain actions.

I personally think Trudeau is doing a very good job, but I think his political power grab was absolutely disgusting. To try and take advantage of a global crisis for political gain is beyond the pale. Other than that, I think he's handling this quite well.

Of all the political leaders I've seen, I actually think Doug Ford is doing an outstanding job, he's clearly working hard, but he's also supporting the federal government and other provinces as they take their own actions and make their own decisions. I always had the impression that he was a bit of a bull in a China shop, but so far he's doing quite well.


----------



## sags

Two more years ......crapola.

I am really going to miss baseball this summer.


----------



## Plugging Along

agent99 said:


> Yes we are self-
> Yes we are self-isolating in our new condo. Ordering in groceries and some meals.
> 
> Returning May 6th on Westjet.



A hint since you have a ways before you come home. Put your order in for your groceries about two weeks ahead of time and order from two different shops. It will give you the best chance of getting your stuff while under quarantine.


----------



## Money172375

Wondering what the NHL or NBA are planning. Can’t seem them playing at all in the 3 months. Even in empty arenas. I’d guess the seasons are over.


----------



## agent99

Plugging Along said:


> A hint since you have a ways before you come home. Put your order in for your groceries about two weeks ahead of time and order from two different shops. It will give you the best chance of getting your stuff while under quarantine.


Just to clarify - you quoted my post, but your advice should have been directed to kcowan (who is in Mexico)


----------



## Plugging Along

agent99 said:


> Just to clarify - you quoted my post, but your advice should have been directed to kcowan (who is in Mexico)


Sorry, I hit the wrong post. yes that was meant for @kcowan


----------



## Prairie Guy

Money172375 said:


> Wondering what the NHL or NBA are planning. Can’t seem them playing at all in the 3 months. Even in empty arenas. I’d guess the seasons are over.


Even with empty arenas there still is TV revenue...and of course, a stay at home audience desperate for some live sports. That of course, depends on them being able to practice social distancing guidelines for the players.


----------



## Longtimeago

Toronto Police are out on the streets today watching for a repeat of last weekend's fiasco. If stopped, people must provide their name, address, etc. and can be arrested if they do not do so. If they are not keeping to the 2 metre physical distancing, they can be fined $1000-5000 and from what I understand, the police have been told to fine people, not just warn them.

The new essential services list has been cut down considerably and I think that is a good thing. Some businesses that were still allowed to be open on the old list that no longer are, are hardware stores, computer and stationary stores. They are allowed to provide curbside pick-ups only now. So your plumber can get the part he needs to fix your leak but the public cannot go into the store at all to say buy some non-essential grass fertilizer. Or go into Best Buy or Staples just to browse.


https://www.ontario.ca/page/stopping-spread-covid-19


----------



## Thal81

Longtimeago said:


> If they are not keeping to the 2 metre physical distancing, they can be fined $1000-5000 and from what I understand, the police have been told to fine people, not just warn them.


These fines are a bit insane and I hope the police will exercise good judgement. This is the kind of fine where someone might not be able to feed themselves for a month or two. They could remove a zero and it would still be enough incentive for people to follow the rules...


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> Toronto Police are out on the streets today watching for a repeat of last weekend's fiasco. If stopped, people must provide their name, address, etc. and can be arrested if they do not do so. If they are not keeping to the 2 metre physical distancing, they can be fined $1000-5000 and from what I understand, the police have been told to fine people, not just warn them.
> 
> The new essential services list has been cut down considerably and I think that is a good thing. Some businesses that were still allowed to be open on the old list that no longer are, are hardware stores, computer and stationary stores. They are allowed to provide curbside pick-ups only now. So your plumber can get the part he needs to fix your leak but the public cannot go into the store at all to say buy some non-essential grass fertilizer. Or go into Best Buy or Staples just to browse.
> 
> 
> https://www.ontario.ca/page/stopping-spread-covid-19


 .. for the Mr.Know-It-All-Arm-Chair-Czar, here's your opportunity to bash this B1tch:

'This is so irresponsible': 'Covidiot' blogger faces backlash for leaving New York City after COVID-19 diagnosis


----------



## Beaver101

Thal81 said:


> These fines are a bit insane and I hope the police will exercise good judgement. This is the kind of fine where someone might not be able to feed themselves for a month or two. They could remove a zero and it would still be enough incentive for people to follow the rules...


 .. it beats imposing Martial/Military Law, after a LockDown first.


----------



## Longtimeago

Thal81 said:


> These fines are a bit insane and I hope the police will exercise good judgement. This is the kind of fine where someone might not be able to feed themselves for a month or two. They could remove a zero and it would still be enough incentive for people to follow the rules...


There is no need for anyone to be fined Thal81 or do you not understand that? If someone is not complying they are putting EVERYONE else at risk by potentially adding to the making of a CHAIN of contagion. If they add to a chain and as a result, just ONE person dies, what penalty do you think they deserve to get?

It is not the fines that are insane, it is the people who do not comply who are insane. There is no problem for those who are complying. There is no penalty great enough for those who are not.


----------



## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> .. for the Mr.Know-It-All-Arm-Chair-Czar, here's your opportunity to bash this B1tch:
> 
> 'This is so irresponsible': 'Covidiot' blogger faces backlash for leaving New York City after COVID-19 diagnosis


Anything that happens in the USA other than how it might affect us here in Canada, isn't really of concern to me Beaver101 other than from a humanitarian aspect.

Some dumb bimbo in New York and her actions is no surprise. Much like the dumb bimbo who threw a chair of a Toronto high rise balcony. Remember her? She still hasn't been sentenced. 

What is more noteworthy in the article is that the New York bimbo could BUY a test. Thank goodness we live in Canada where access to the same healthcare as everyone else doesn't depend on who has or has not got the money.


----------



## m3s

I anticipate civil unrest in parts of the US before this is over. It already started in Italy as the unemployed run out of food

Italy has world class public healthcare for all. US does not. The essential workers keeping society running on threads in the US happen to be the least paid with the least medical coverage. They don't have paid sick leave or access to healthcare. It's a ticking time bomb

Gun stores are considered essential and people are stocking up on guns and ammo


----------



## Longtimeago

m3s said:


> I anticipate civil unrest in parts of the US before this is over. It already started in Italy as the unemployed run out of food
> 
> Italy has world class public healthcare for all. US does not. The essential workers keeping society running on threads in the US happen to be the least paid with the least medical coverage. They don't have paid sick leave or access to healthcare. It's a ticking time bomb
> 
> Gun stores are considered essential and people are stocking up on guns and ammo


It would not surprise me m3s given the culture of the USA. Hopefully, it won't come to that but again, it would not surprise me if things get really bad. The USA is showing all the flaws in it's healthcare system right now and in it's employment situation.


----------



## Longtimeago

I was thinking about people running out of money and things like the media coverage of rent payments etc. that people are unable to make even this month.

I realize there are people who do live pay cheque to pay cheque and can only afford the basic necessities of life even when they are working. But I was thinking about those for whom that is not in fact the case.

Someone may be making a decent income but still spending all they earn. Some of them are also saying, I can't pay the rent this month.' But how are they arriving at that statement?

I mean are they first dropping their TV, internet, smartphone payments and still don't have enough? Or are they dropping their rent payment first? I know what I think they are doing in that regard.


----------



## sags

Everybody is broke.

Corporations are broke, small businesses are broke, governments are broke, renters are broke, home owners are broke. consumers are broke.........

Luxury retailer Neiman Marcus is broke, so the wealthy must be broke too.


----------



## agent99

m3s said:


> Italy has world class public healthcare for all. US does not.


We spend time in the USA and have to buy very expensive health insurance, just in case we have to use the health services.
Many Americans have government or company health plans. A large % do not or only have limited coverage. Those over 65 have Medicare.
Given the above, I wonder how they are handling the Covid epidemic? If someone who does not have insurance gets ill and needs to go to a hospital, do the hospitals insist on proof of means of payment up front before they will admit the patient? They require this from Canadians who get ill down there.


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> I wonder how they are handling the Covid epidemic? If someone who does not have insurance gets ill and needs to go to a hospital, do the hospitals insist on proof of means of payment up front before they will admit the patient?


From anecdotes I've gathered, they simply won't go to the hospital unless they are dying.

Many in this situation don't have paid sick leave. So going to a Dr means loss of income before even medical bills

Lack of paid sick leave means these people are far more likely to spread the virus imo


----------



## agent99

I checked the Medicare site, and it says that Medicare does cover testing and hospitalization. But then it gets confusing with Part A (Hospital Insurance) and Part B (Medicare Insurance - which has to be paid for out of Social Insurance payments). This mainly for those over 65.

Must be an added stress to have to decide if you have or can afford to be tested and treated.


----------



## sags

Bernie Sanders was complaining about the health care on CNN. He said Trump approved Medicare for testing for everyone but not hospitalization.

In other words, free testing for everyone but not free healthcare. Sanders wants Trump to include full healthcare for everyone on a temporary basis.


----------



## Parkuser

I am reading about these miraculous ventilators. You can have mine.

Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients 

Opinion | What You Should Know Before You Need a Ventilator


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> Sanders wants Trump to include full healthcare for everyone on a temporary basis.


Sanders has always wanted free healthcare, even before the crisis.


----------



## MrMatt

Parkuser said:


> I am reading about these miraculous ventilators. You can have mine.
> 
> Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients
> 
> Opinion | What You Should Know Before You Need a Ventilator


Ok, gladly.
Did you actually read the article?
I'll summarize my takeaway
Of the people who WILL die without a ventilator, 1/3 recover well enough to be taken off the ventilator.

So among the sickest, this device can save 1/3 of them.
So if you were projecting 1600 deaths with ventilators, you'd be at 2400 without ventilators.

I'm sure those 800 will be glad to take yours.


----------



## Longtimeago

Parkuser said:


> I am reading about these miraculous ventilators. You can have mine.
> 
> Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients
> 
> Opinion | What You Should Know Before You Need a Ventilator


That a high percentage still die is not news Parkuser. But when it gets to that stage, it is the only possible way of trying to help someone to survive. When you need a ventilator, not getting one is a 100% likelyhood you will die. So if you were given the choice of a 30% chance of living or a 1% chance of living, which would you choose?

It's pointless to say people still die if they get put on a ventilator. We know that already. Or did you think everyone thought going on a ventilator gave you a 100% chance of surviving?


----------



## Prairie Guy

There are a lot of businesses stepping up, some of them retooling factories to produce masks and protective clothing or medical supplies. You know...those evil corporations that only care about profits.

But you know who has done absolutely nothing during this crisis? Black Lives Matter, Occupy Wall Street, Idle No More, Greenpeace, 350.org, David Suzuki, Antifa, Climate Greta...every single leftist organization has gone completely silent.

Remember that when this is (hopefully) over and they start lecturing us again.


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> There are a lot of businesses stepping up, some of them retooling factories to produce masks and protective clothing or medical supplies. You know...those evil corporations that only care about profits.
> 
> But you know who has done absolutely nothing during this crisis? Black Lives Matter, Occupy Wall Street, Idle No More, Greenpeace, 350.org, David Suzuki, Antifa, Climate Greta...every single leftist organization has gone completely silent.
> 
> Remember that when this is (hopefully) over and they start lecturing us again.


Actually they've done lots, they've kept up enough pressure so the government is still hiking carbon taxes, even during this crisis.
Also they're starting to push the "new economy", and that as we go back, we should take this opportunity to start a new more fair and greener economy.

There are groups who are trying to get the temporary benefits called UBI, and made permanent.
Don't worry, those groups are still out there trying to make the world worse.


----------



## Parkuser

MrMatt said:


> ...So among the sickest, this device can save 1/3 of them.
> So if you were projecting 1600 deaths with ventilators, you'd be at 2400 without ventilators. I'm sure those 800 will be glad to take yours.


Well, if you like made-up numbers, if you have 40 thousand then even better -13,333 will survive, but when you have two people on ventilators, nobody will survive. In reality, it would be different. What the NYT article says, you have to tweak the settings; too much oxygen – your lungs are damaged, not enough oxygen – your brain and kidney are gone, too much air pressure – your lungs are damaged, not enough pressure –you are dead, too long on ventilator your heart is gone, etc. So if you have 2 ventilators, both patients will be very well taken care of. But when you have, say, 30-40 ventilators per nurse running around the whole day in a hazmat suit, the numbers will be like in China, 3/23 i.e. 15%. Maybe if you are 40, eventually everything will be OK, but when you are 70? How many will leave the hospital alive, but die soon after? How many will be disabled, with quality of life close to zero? This to me is so-called “heroic medicine.”

I do not want to go too far on a ghoulish tangent, but CPR is such a “heroic medicine.” Can you tell how many people survive CPR? Contrary to what one may think if one’s knowledge is based on the movies, sort of 10% -15%. Which means CPR does not work. Thus my suspicion is, for people my age the ventilators do not work either. Take mine if you are 40, non-smoker and in good health.


----------



## MrMatt

Parkuser said:


> Well, if you like made-up numbers, if you have 40 thousand then even better -13,333 will survive, but when you have two people on ventilators, nobody will survive. In reality, it would be different. What the NYT article says, you have to tweak the settings; too much oxygen – your lungs are damaged, not enough oxygen – your brain and kidney are gone, too much air pressure – your lungs are damaged, not enough pressure –you are dead, too long on ventilator your heart is gone, etc. So if you have 2 ventilators, both patients will be very well taken care of. But when you have, say, 30-40 ventilators per nurse running around the whole day in a hazmat suit, the numbers will be like in China, 3/23 i.e. 15%. Maybe if you are 40, eventually everything will be OK, but when you are 70? How many will leave the hospital alive, but die soon after? How many will be disabled, with quality of life close to zero? This to me is so-called “heroic medicine.”
> 
> I do not want to go too far on a ghoulish tangent, but CPR is such a “heroic medicine.” Can you tell how many people survive CPR? Contrary to what one may think if one’s knowledge is based on the movies, sort of 10% -15%. Which means CPR does not work. Thus my suspicion is, for people my age the ventilators do not work either. Take mine if you are 40, non-smoker and in good health.


Actually CPR works, just not very well.


----------



## sags

The CERB program starts today and accepts applications for 3 days depending on the month of birth.

The qualifications required are going to leave a lot of people unable to collect either EI or CERB.

It is estimated that 1/3rd of jobless Canadians (860,000) will not receive either EI or CERB benefits and another 1.5 million will join them.









Holes in the safety net: CERB and EI coverage falls short


By Zaid Noorsumar The Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) introduced this week by the Liberal government is a vast improvement over the beleaguered Employment Insurance system but still excludes many people. The CERB applications are expected to be available online on April 6 with paymen




www.rankandfile.ca





See comments on the article at the website for examples. The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives also published research on it.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> The CERB program starts today and accepts applications for 3 days depending on the month of birth.
> 
> The qualifications required are going to leave a lot of people unable to collect either EI or CERB.
> 
> It is estimated that 1/3rd of jobless Canadians (860,000) will not receive either EI or CERB benefits and another 1.5 million will join them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Holes in the safety net: CERB and EI coverage falls short
> 
> 
> By Zaid Noorsumar The Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) introduced this week by the Liberal government is a vast improvement over the beleaguered Employment Insurance system but still excludes many people. The CERB applications are expected to be available online on April 6 with paymen
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rankandfile.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> See comments on the article at the website for examples. The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives also published research on it.



So what? First of all, this is intended to help those who are out of work DUE TO Covid19. Second, you cannot expect to design and implement a program in 1 or 2 weeks that is perfect for everyone.

Instead of focusing on 'some will not get help', why not focus on 'most of those affected by this will get help.'

Union drones always focus on the negatives and how something leaves some out. What is there in life where no one is ever left out?


----------



## Longtimeago

Parkuser said:


> Well, if you like made-up numbers, if you have 40 thousand then even better -13,333 will survive, but when you have two people on ventilators, nobody will survive. In reality, it would be different. What the NYT article says, you have to tweak the settings; too much oxygen – your lungs are damaged, not enough oxygen – your brain and kidney are gone, too much air pressure – your lungs are damaged, not enough pressure –you are dead, too long on ventilator your heart is gone, etc. So if you have 2 ventilators, both patients will be very well taken care of. But when you have, say, 30-40 ventilators per nurse running around the whole day in a hazmat suit, the numbers will be like in China, 3/23 i.e. 15%. Maybe if you are 40, eventually everything will be OK, but when you are 70? How many will leave the hospital alive, but die soon after? How many will be disabled, with quality of life close to zero? This to me is so-called “heroic medicine.”
> 
> I do not want to go too far on a ghoulish tangent, but CPR is such a “heroic medicine.” Can you tell how many people survive CPR? Contrary to what one may think if one’s knowledge is based on the movies, sort of 10% -15%. Which means CPR does not work. Thus my suspicion is, for people my age the ventilators do not work either. Take mine if you are 40, non-smoker and in good health.


You seem to still not grasp the basic and simple facts. ANY percentage of survival rate is better than NO survival rate at all Parkuser. If I only have a 15% chance of survival if I have to go on a ventilator, it is still BETTER than a 0% chance.

Again, we know people still die when put on a ventilator but some survive as a result. But if you want to give up your chance however low it might be, be our guest. Someone else will be happy to be given even that low chance.


----------



## james4beach

I do see some big problems in CERB especially for small business owners and freelancers like myself. My business related contract income has plummeted as a direct consequence of COVID-19. I could say it's a 90% income reduction, it's very significant and directly attributable to the outbreak including a mandatory quarantine I ended up in.

For example this income loss was so severe that I immediately stopped investing and have boosted my emergency cash reserves by one extra year. Cash is going to be tight for a while.

However, like most small businesses, I do my best to keep things moving and still scrap together a bit of income. Therefore, I am still working and "making money", which disqualifies a CERB claim in any time period where there is income.

I don't see a great solution to that but it shows a flaw in the CERB system. It only gives you payments if your employment income has dropped to 0, which means it doesn't help people like me who suffered a large % loss but still have non-zero income.

*It might even discourage people from working*. This is a similar problem to the welfare system overall... am I better off trying to scrap together a bit of income, or stop doing that so I qualify for the government amount? Instead, if the government paid an unconditional amount to everyone, this disincentive wouldn't exist.

In this situation I think Canada should pay an unconditional amount, perhaps 10K to 20K each, out to everyone. Any citizen filing taxes and resident in Canada, period. The government (same in US) is already basically paying similar huge welfare to corporations and it is far better directly in the hands of citizens, seniors, etc.


----------



## matthew01

Now china is going to moving from recoveries


----------



## sags

Longtimeago said:


> You seem to still not grasp the basic and simple facts. ANY percentage of survival rate is better than NO survival rate at all Parkuser. If I only have a 15% chance of survival if I have to go on a ventilator, it is still BETTER than a 0% chance.
> 
> Again, we know people still die when put on a ventilator but some survive as a result. But if you want to give up your chance however low it might be, be our guest. Someone else will be happy to be given even that low chance.


You are only focusing on the % of people who are taken off ventilators.

You don't account for the serious adverse health effects of being on a ventilator for weeks.

When fully informed, a lot of people may decide to refuse ventilation rather than survive in a vegetative or badly damaged state.

It is essentially an "end of life" decision that people are forced to make every day for a loved one in critical condition.


----------



## Parkuser

Longtimeago said:


> You seem to still not grasp the basic and simple facts. ANY percentage of survival rate is better than NO survival rate at all Parkuser...


I am sure, you are right. This is why I am grateful that there are people around able to grasp the basic facts.

I have no clue what life after weeks on the ventilator would be. But theoretically, just out of curiosity: you are spending your life in bed, in diapers, breathing through a hole in your neck, fed through a hole in your belly, to the tune of k$7/month (but you can afford it.) Is this level of “quality of life” OK with you?


----------



## Longtimeago

Parkuser said:


> I am sure, you are right. This is why I am grateful that there are people around able to grasp the basic facts.
> 
> I have no clue what life after weeks on the ventilator would be. But theoretically, just out of curiosity: you are spending your life in bed, in diapers, breathing through a hole in your neck, fed through a hole in your belly, to the tune of k$7/month (but you can afford it.) Is this level of “quality of life” OK with you?


Parkuser, again it depends on the risks and outcomes. Suppose you only need to go on a ventilator for 1 or 2 days and you come off it still relatively 'unscarred'. Yes you may have some damage to your lungs and that may limit you but not so much that you cannot still maintain a reasonable 'quality of life.'

You give one extreme example but it does not mean there cannot be a better outcome as well. If you want to make a choice if you are told the next step is to put you on a ventilator, then you make YOUR choice. As sags says, some people may decide to not go on a ventilator and make an 'end of life' decision. I don't disagree with that. But at the same time some may chose to go on a ventilator and SOME of them may end up with a good result. It is not a simple decision and the outcome is not necessarily a bad one.


----------



## sags

james4beach said:


> I do see some big problems in CERB especially for small business owners and freelancers like myself. My business related contract income has plummeted as a direct consequence of COVID-19. I could say it's a 90% income reduction, it's very significant and directly attributable to the outbreak including a mandatory quarantine I ended up in.
> 
> For example this income loss was so severe that I immediately stopped investing and have boosted my emergency cash reserves by one extra year. Cash is going to be tight for a while.
> 
> However, like most small businesses, I do my best to keep things moving and still scrap together a bit of income. Therefore, I am still working and "making money", which disqualifies a CERB claim in any time period where there is income.
> 
> I don't see a great solution to that but it shows a flaw in the CERB system. It only gives you payments if your employment income has dropped to 0, which means it doesn't help people like me who suffered a large % loss but still have non-zero income.
> 
> *It might even discourage people from working*. This is a similar problem to the welfare system overall... am I better off trying to scrap together a bit of income, or stop doing that so I qualify for the government amount? Instead, if the government paid an unconditional amount to everyone, this disincentive wouldn't exist.
> 
> In this situation I think Canada should pay an unconditional amount, perhaps 10K to 20K each, out to everyone. Any citizen filing taxes and resident in Canada, period. The government (same in US) is already basically paying similar huge welfare to corporations and it is far better directly in the hands of citizens, seniors, etc.


Trudeau just announced additional programs for people in your position. He also filled in some of the other gaps in the programs.

The qualifications are too stringent and needed to change. For example.....700 employment hours required to collect EI and benefits.

Not being allowed to earn any income for 14 days before applying for CERB will be changed. 

People earning 55% on EI will receive the same as the CERB program.

People who were laid off or sick last year and collected EI, and who didn't earn $5000 in employment income.

People collecting S&A benefits or WSIB benefits last year may not qualify for CERB.

People working for less than the CERB in nursing and retirement homes will receive the difference in pay.

There are a lot of changes and the government should have kept it simple as possible. Most people aren't working anyways.

People looking at this as a welfare program don't understand macro economics. This spending is to save the future.

If the government doesn't put money into people's pockets we will have a Depression such as never has been seen before.

It would take years for the economy to rebound from a huge hole.


----------



## Longtimeago

I'll tell you this for free Parkuser. Many people will tell you that in certain situations, they would chose to pull the plug as you seem to be suggesting you would do. But what they and you THINK you would do is just that, what you think you would do. The only time you will KNOW what you will do is when you reach that point of having to do it. 

The will to live is a strange thing. Some people seem to have more of it than others. Some give up more easily than others. I have 'seen the elephant' as the saying goes, 3 times in my life. Meaning I have seen death as a potential outcome. Once from hypothermia, once from a potential fall and once at the end of a gun. i'm still here Parkuser but only because I didn't give up.


----------



## andrewf

My thinking on this is that these payments should be loans with 0% interest and no repayments for 12 months. When the dust settles we can re-evaluate whether we want to forgive these loans, etc.

It is concerning that some people are getting more from CERB than they would if they kept working their min wage job.


----------



## sags

The government can immediately guarantee low interest loans to people through the banks, so they can pay off high interest debt.

The loans would be repayable and similar to student loans they would not be bankrupt proof.

In the event of a default, the government can seize any income, including government benefits, bank accounts, and assets to repay the debt.

Saving money that people don't have to pay for high interest debt is better than giving them money to pay those high interest debts.

Why are taxpayer dollars being used to make high interest payments to payday loan lenders, credit card companies, and alternative lenders ?

A loan guarantee program would be almost no risk to the government.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I'll tell you this for free Parkuser. Many people will tell you that in certain situations, they would chose to pull the plug as you seem to be suggesting you would do. But what they and you THINK you would do is just that, what you think you would do. The only time you will KNOW what you will do is when you reach that point of having to do it.


It definitely can be different when you are in the situation. On that note, preparing for the outcome is also wise to do if you are unable to make the call at that point in time, hence the need for a living will, so they can pull the plug if you so desired.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> It definitely can be different when you are in the situation. On that note, preparing for the outcome is also wise to do if you are unable to make the call at that point in time, hence the need for a living will, so they can pull the plug if you so desired.


Yes I could agree with that IF the living will is very specific. ie. If I am in a vegetative state and there is no chance of that reversing etc. That's not the same as saying 'if I cardiac arrest while on a ventilator, do not resuscitate', when you can't know if you might perhaps have survived reasonably 'intact' if they did resuscitate you.

The thing about a living will and do not resuscitate instructions is you can't CHANGE your mind if the time arrives. I just can't see letting someone else decide that for me. To me, that's like deciding to give up ahead of time. It's certainly not a simple decision to make.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> People working for less than the CERB in nursing and retirement homes will receive the difference in pay.
> 
> There are a lot of changes and the government should have kept it simple as possible. Most people aren't working anyways.


I feel like they should have just given everyone $x per month as taxable income.

The essential workers like grocery store employees and logistics (transportation) are risking their health to hold everything together and get none of this?

Instead receiving the difference for working essential jobs is a huge kick in the nuts when everyone else is getting to watch Tiger King on Netflix

Imagine if these low paid workers like grocery store employees go on strike because their colleagues are getting sick


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Yes I could agree with that IF the living will is very specific. ie. If I am in a vegetative state and there is no chance of that reversing etc. That's not the same as saying 'if I cardiac arrest while on a ventilator, do not resuscitate', when you can't know if you might perhaps have survived reasonably 'intact' if they did resuscitate you.
> 
> The thing about a living will and do not resuscitate instructions is you can't CHANGE your mind if the time arrives. I just can't see letting someone else decide that for me. To me, that's like deciding to give up ahead of time. It's certainly not a simple decision to make.


Yes, one should be very specific for a living will and, related to that matter, having a DNR statement.

The whole point of these is you're not letting someone else decide for you as you have decided in advance.


----------



## andrewf

Not letting, and also not putting them in the position of having to make that decision. It's kinda shitty to put a loved in the position of making that call.


----------



## nobleea

UK's PM now in ICU due to Coronovirus complications.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I feel like they should have just given everyone $x per month as taxable income.
> 
> The essential workers like grocery store employees and logistics (transportation) are risking their health to hold everything together and get none of this?
> 
> Instead receiving the difference for working essential jobs is a huge kick in the nuts when everyone else is getting to watch Tiger King on Netflix
> 
> Imagine if these low paid workers like grocery store employees go on strike because their colleagues are getting sick


+1, I'm finding it annoying with all the highly paid people on Facebook Compla-bragging that in quarantine they still don't have any time to work on their personal projects.


----------



## sags

I would like to know how all these rich and famous people get tested right away, while nurses and doctors in the hospitals can't get a test.

There are some rich and famous posting in a bikini on a tropical island. Having a great time.....wish you could be rich enough to be here.

One thing is certain. If you were laying beside a rich and famous person in ICU and there was 1 ventilator available.....guess who isn't getting it ?


----------



## sags

My wife is the only employee left working in her group in the retirement home. There used to be 5 but the others are at home and will collect CERB.

People will work to earn more money. They won't continue working to earn less money and take the risk.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> My wife is the only employee left working in her group in the retirement home. There used to be 5 but the others are at home and will collect CERB.
> 
> People will work to earn more money. They won't continue working to earn less money and take the risk.


People work work to earn enough more money.
If the differential is too small, they won't.

Lets say you got $15/hr for 8 hours or $120 pre tax for a shift, or got $100 pre tax to stay home.
Would you waste a whole day for $20 pre tax? I wouldn't.
I know people who took significant pay cuts like 20% or more for quality of life reasons.

These very generous (and necessary) emergency payments expose the won't work if I don't have to problem of UBI.
On and we're going massively into debt, they're going to have to hike taxes incredibly, or inflate the money supply to handle it.

Oh and despite the words of our leaders, this massive debt they are adding is extreme and unaffordable, So far the plan is to increase debt by a good 20% or more, I'd be surprised if our debt load isn't at least 50% higher by the end of this. Plus our economy will be a mess until we get it up and running, which will take time.

We need people to get back to work and pay off this debt, super generous stay at home plans are going to make the financial hangover even worse.


----------



## sags

The virus controls the calendar. We can return to work when the virus says we can.

Secondary waves of infections are now hitting Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, China and South Korea.

I doubt the economy will be able to fully re-open until a vaccine is discovered, tested and widely available.

That will likely be 18 months plus from now.

I suspect the debt will eventually be transferred to century bonds and paid off over 100 years.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> That will likely be 18 months plus from now.
> 
> I suspect the debt will eventually be transferred to century bonds and paid off over 100 years.


Yeah, I agree. I just don't see how we can end the isolation until a vaccine is ready. A single person left with the virus could become the new patient zero and it would start all over again. Until I'm lining up at my local high school gym getting a vaccine needle, then we will all have to stay home. That would be in the 18-24 month range as they've indicated, unless they cut corners on testing I suppose.

As far as the debt is concerned, our economy will be in ruins by that time.

ltr


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> My wife is the only employee left working in her group in the retirement home. There used to be 5 but the others are at home and will collect CERB.
> 
> People will work to earn more money. They won't continue working to earn less money and take the risk.


You are talking about people who just see what they do as a 'job'. While that probably applies to most people, it does not apply to all people. Some front line workers see what they do as more than just a job sags. When my wife entered nursing 40+ years ago, she did so because she wanted to help sick people after seeing her Father die in his early 40s from cancer. Many doctors are the same. 

Not everyone just chases the money sags. You may be able to speak for yourself and perhaps even for your wife but your comments are insulting to people like my wife and those like her.


----------



## Longtimeago

So the good news is that those who do not live in debt are now saving more money. Since stores are closed and we are staying home as requested, we aren't spending any of our discretionary income at all. Our only spending is groceries etc.

The good news I guess for those who live in debt is they will have a harder time running up more debt. Maybe they will even pay some off.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> People work work to earn enough more money.
> If the differential is too small, they won't.
> 
> Lets say you got $15/hr for 8 hours or $120 pre tax for a shift, or got $100 pre tax to stay home.
> Would you waste a whole day for $20 pre tax? I wouldn't.
> I know people who took significant pay cuts like 20% or more for quality of life reasons.
> 
> These very generous (and necessary) emergency payments expose the won't work if I don't have to problem of UBI.
> On and we're going massively into debt, they're going to have to hike taxes incredibly, or inflate the money supply to handle it.
> 
> Oh and despite the words of our leaders, this massive debt they are adding is extreme and unaffordable, So far the plan is to increase debt by a good 20% or more, I'd be surprised if our debt load isn't at least 50% higher by the end of this. Plus our economy will be a mess until we get it up and running, which will take time.
> 
> We need people to get back to work and pay off this debt, super generous stay at home plans are going to make the financial hangover even worse.


All together now: THIS. IS. NOT. UBI.

It is welfare. With UBI, you would get the benefit if you worked as well. CERB requires you not work. Therefore it is welfare. 

I think the CERB should have been a loan with payments and interest deferred for 1 year. Also should have been open to anyone resident in Canada, to simplify the application process.


----------



## andrewf

like_to_retire said:


> Yeah, I agree. I just don't see how we can end the isolation until a vaccine is ready. A single person left with the virus could become the new patient zero and it would start all over again. Until I'm lining up at my local high school gym getting a vaccine needle, then we will all have to stay home. That would be in the 18-24 month range as they've indicated, unless they cut corners on testing I suppose.
> 
> As far as the debt is concerned, our economy will be in ruins by that time.
> 
> ltr


This is crazy. We need a few months to get the number of active cases down, highly capable testing/contact tracing and prepare healthcare system. Then we will all need to get back to work with reasonable safety measures. China is already back to work. Had we acted earlier, we could have maybe shortened the quarantine period, but the virus started spreading rampantly. Saying that the current situation needs to last for two years is nuts.


----------



## Longtimeago

Use logic. How does the virus spread? Answer, person to person. How do you therefore stop the spread? Answer, stop interactions between people. 

Returning travellers have not been the main source of the spread for some time now, community spread is now the main source of spread. It is almost impossible to stop that completely and that is why the focus is on 'flattening the curve' still so that it does not overwhelm the healthcare system.

The problem with flattening the curve however is that it takes more time to reach the point known as 'herd immunity'. When you reach somewhere around 60-70% of the population having been infected, herd immunity kicks in which means when interactions occur after that, the chances are high that the chain will be broken because it cannot pass to a person who is immune as a result of already having been infected. It's breaking the chains that make the difference. It will still spread to individuals who have not been infected but the number of cases will be much lower and the risk to those who have already been infected will be zero. At that point, you can start to cautiously start to move back to more 'normal' living. But those at high risk, still cannot do so. They will still have to self-isolate or risk infection.

It is only after you have a vaccine readily available that those who have still not been infected can return to 'normal' life. If you start to return to 'normal' too soon, all that will happen is you will have successive waves of infection. A vaccine to prevent catching the virus or a cure for after you catch it are the only 'reasonable safety measures' that can be taken.

This is going to take some time. Everyone is not going to be back to work before a vaccine or cure is proven and available in sufficient quantities. 

What I wonder about now is if somehow we can start getting those who have had the virus and recovered back to work since they will have immunity from either catching it or spreading it again. Maybe a healthcare issued card saying, 'Virus Survivor Cleared to Work'.


----------



## sags

Foolish talk pervades the conservative media about reopening the economy.

Fox News talks constantly about it. That is where Trump is getting his ideas about reopening the economy and miracle cures.

Dr. Fauci has said everything but.....'are you nuts" to Trump and now he needs added security from the right wing nitwits.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> Use logic. How does the virus spread? Answer, person to person. How do you therefore stop the spread? Answer, stop interactions between people.
> 
> Returning travellers have not been the main source of the spread for some time now, community spread is now the main source of spread. It is almost impossible to stop that completely and that is why the focus is on 'flattening the curve' still so that it does not overwhelm the healthcare system.
> 
> The problem with flattening the curve however is that it takes more time to reach the point known as 'herd immunity'. When you reach somewhere around 60-70% of the population having been infected, herd immunity kicks in which means when interactions occur after that, the chances are high that the chain will be broken because it cannot pass to a person who is immune as a result of already having been infected. It's breaking the chains that make the difference. It will still spread to individuals who have not been infected but the number of cases will be much lower and the risk to those who have already been infected will be zero. At that point, you can start to cautiously start to move back to more 'normal' living. But those at high risk, still cannot do so. They will still have to self-isolate or risk infection.
> 
> It is only after you have a vaccine readily available that those who have still not been infected can return to 'normal' life. If you start to return to 'normal' too soon, all that will happen is you will have successive waves of infection. A vaccine to prevent catching the virus or a cure for after you catch it are the only 'reasonable safety measures' that can be taken.
> 
> This is going to take some time. Everyone is not going to be back to work before a vaccine or cure is proven and available in sufficient quantities.
> 
> What I wonder about now is if somehow we can start getting those who have had the virus and recovered back to work since they will have immunity from either catching it or spreading it again. Maybe a healthcare issued card saying, 'Virus Survivor Cleared to Work'.


If you get the rate of spread down to a low level, you don't need to wait for a vaccine. Frankly, we could be waiting a decade for a vaccine. Then people can return to work with appropriate safeguards (like those being practiced in essential workplaces). LTA, it's a good thing you are not the one making these decisions. There needs to be a balance between public health and economic activity. Irrationally keeping the economy shut down even once community spread is contained at a minimal level is not a good balance. There will continue to be many limitations, particularly on things like travel, public gatherings, etc.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> If you get the rate of spread down to a low level, you don't need to wait for a vaccine. Frankly, we could be waiting a decade for a vaccine. Then people can return to work with appropriate safeguards (like those being practiced in essential workplaces). LTA, it's a good thing you are not the one making these decisions. There needs to be a balance between public health and economic activity. Irrationally keeping the economy shut down even once community spread is contained at a minimal level is not a good balance. There will continue to be many limitations, particularly on things like travel, public gatherings, etc.


The thing is people are acting like this is a "once in a lifetime" disruption.
We get these disruptions ever few years.

If SARS was a little easier to spread, and a little lower to show symptoms we would have had the same thing. We were just really lucky.
This will happen again.

The thing is people see COVID deaths as a problem, they don't see economic disruption as a problem. 

As far as a decade for a vaccine, they're been trying, though not hard, to make a vaccine for "the common cold" for decades and haven't. They never even bothered to finish the SARS vaccine.
Coronavirus vaccines are apparently hard to make.


----------



## sags

It is better to be safe than sorry. We need to stay buttoned down. The money can be sorted out later.

The important thing right now is to get it flowing to people. So far, nobody has received anything.


----------



## sags

People probably already know, but if anyone has a car loan at a major bank, they can apply online to defer the payments for up to 3 months.

It may be an attractive offer to some people if they have a really low interest rate like 0.9%.

I don't know if they will decline to defer payments for people with low interest rates though.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> All together now: THIS. IS. NOT. UBI.
> 
> It is welfare. With UBI, you would get the benefit if you worked as well. CERB requires you not work. Therefore it is welfare.
> 
> I think the CERB should have been a loan with payments and interest deferred for 1 year. Also should have been open to anyone resident in Canada, to simplify the application process.


I never said it was UBI, I use that as the example.

The reality is if Welfare, UBI, CERB, or whatever they call it is too high, people will opt out of the workforce.
That's the problem.

If it was an interest free loan, that wouldn't help, they're nearly bankrupt now, giving them a loan just pushes them deeper in the hole.

I want these programs, however I don't want them to be at such a level that you're better off outside the workforce than inside it.
It's crazy that with millions of unemployed, we still have a labour shortage.
Part of it is the temporary nature of this event, but the other half is that the benefits being offered are competitive with getting a job. That is the serious problem.

You realize the government has already committed something like 200 Billion to this?
Their normal annual budget is just over $300Billion, we're 2/3 of the way through doubling our federal spend this year, and we're in month 1 of many.

We need a massive cash handout to keep people afloat (because nobody has an emergency fund). But we also need to ensure those that can and should be working are.

I also have a concern with the mental health issues.
I know essential workers who are stressed to the point of tears now. 
I know relationship that will not handle the additional financial pressure and stress.

These are all bad, and there are no good solutions.

The only problem I think that can be addressed is to make sure that there remains a significant financial incentive for those who can work to continue to do so.


----------



## Eclectic12

andrewf said:


> If you get the rate of spread down to a low level, you don't need to wait for a vaccine. Frankly, we could be waiting a decade for a vaccine ...


Maybe ... but isn't that a pessimistic view?

I can find references to SARS vaccines ready for human trials in about twenty months. Trouble was it was considered contained and regional so that investors as well as gov't weren't willing to pay for the trials. An expert who has been studying corona virus since the '80s says she is aware of four SARS vaccines that this happened to.

What's different about this new one that makes you think in terms of a decade?


There are also other things to keep in mind. 

The first is that a potential vaccine is reported to already be in human trials, with something like another nineteen being worked on around the world. There's another four in animal trials.

The second is that the time for development is reported to be much quicker than the SARS days as work has been done on corona virus vaccines, even if human trials weren't funded. 

The third is that this one is reported to share 80 to 90% of its genetic material with the virus that caused Sars, making variations on the SARS vaccines easier to adapt.


Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Maybe ... but isn't that a pessimistic view?
> 
> I can find references to SARS vaccines ready for human trials in about twenty months. Trouble was it was considered contained and regional so that investors as well as gov't weren't willing to pay for the trials. An expert who has been studying corona virus since the '80s says she is aware of four SARS vaccines that this happened to.
> 
> What's different about this new one that makes you think in terms of a decade?
> 
> 
> There are also other things to keep in mind.
> 
> The first is that a potential vaccine is reported to already be in human trials, with something like another nineteen being worked on around the world. There's another four in animal trials.
> 
> The second is that the time for development is reported to be much quicker than the SARS days as work has been done on corona virus vaccines, even if human trials weren't funded.
> 
> The third is that this one is reported to share 80 to 90% of its genetic material with the virus that caused Sars, making variations on the SARS vaccines easier to adapt.
> 
> 
> Cheers


They never made a vaccine for the common cold, and AFAIK they've never successfully made a coronavirus vaccine.
It would be suprising that they create the very first coronavirus vaccine faster than any other vaccine in history?

I think the multipronged strategy, including finding an effective treatment, is a good idea.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> It would be suprising that they create the very first coronavirus vaccine faster than any other vaccine in history?


The only difference now is large economic loss worldwide, a huge push to stimulate research for a vaccine. Of course it doesn't mean we'll get one faster but ...


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> The only difference now is large economic loss worldwide, a huge push to stimulate research for a vaccine. Of course it doesn't mean we'll get one faster but ...


Oh, I'm sure they'll actually push to the finish line on this, but past history isn't promising.


----------



## sags

The probably need 10 possible vaccines and hope one of them successfully passes clinical trials.

I used to invest in small biopharmas that develop new drugs. They all claim to have "promising" drugs when looking for research grants or partnerships with the large drug companies.

The reality is most fail at some stage of testing. The tests starts with small groups, then larger groups for longer periods, and very large groups for a long period of time.

They have to find someone run the complete program....locating test patients, setting up administration of the drugs and testing, follow up care.

Then they have to have the drug pass testing by the government regulators. Then they need a partner to produce and distribute the drug.

It is time consuming and expensive, but if they get it right they hit the jackpot. It doesn't happen often though. That is why they are penny stocks.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I never said it was UBI, I use that as the example.
> 
> The reality is if Welfare, UBI, CERB, or whatever they call it is too high, people will opt out of the workforce.
> That's the problem.


There is a big difference between UBI and welfare schemes, and that is the marginal effective tax rate (METR) for earning employment income. Welfare is typically 100% or higher METR, while UBI is typically closer to 50%. Which do you think presents a stronger incentive to opt out of the workforce? I saw a story on the news last night about a guy doing freelance video editing work, telling a client that he won't invoice them the $300 because then he won't get CERB. That is the problem with welfare schemes, and why UBI is better. I mean, even if you had the same kind of qualifying criteria as EI, welfare and disability, I still think they should have more reasonable clawback regimes than today (100%+) so incentivize people to earn what they can.




> If it was an interest free loan, that wouldn't help, they're nearly bankrupt now, giving them a loan just pushes them deeper in the hole.


The worst case with an interest free loan is that we don't get the money back. Same as with a direct handout. The _real_ problem right now is cash flow. Get people cash so they don't starve and immediately default on all their obligations. We can decide when the dust settles and we have more time to be careful whether any of that debt should be forgiven/written off.



> I want these programs, however I don't want them to be at such a level that you're better off outside the workforce than inside it.
> It's crazy that with millions of unemployed, we still have a labour shortage.
> Part of it is the temporary nature of this event, but the other half is that the benefits being offered are competitive with getting a job. That is the serious problem.
> 
> You realize the government has already committed something like 200 Billion to this?
> Their normal annual budget is just over $300Billion, we're 2/3 of the way through doubling our federal spend this year, and we're in month 1 of many.
> 
> We need a massive cash handout to keep people afloat (because nobody has an emergency fund). But we also need to ensure those that can and should be working are.


I agree that this is crazy, and unsustainable. It should have been in the form of a loan. Lots of people will get CERB that don't really need it but are eligible. A loan would be much less incentive to stop working in order to collect it. Maybe that is part of the problem because they needed people not to be incentivized to keep working in non-essential areas.



> The only problem I think that can be addressed is to make sure that there remains a significant financial incentive for those who can work to continue to do so.


I agree, it's why I think that CERB should be a loan, if the goal of this is to help with cash flow and liquidity and not causing a financial collapse.

If, later on, we want to deal with the wealth effect of months of lost income, I am open to the idea of some kind of per capita citizens dividend, potentially financed by money-printing. We don't need to decide that now. But you should get it whether you were unemployed or not as a result of COVID-19 shutdown, so we are not disadvantaging all the people who are still working (stocking grocery stores and collecting garbage, etc.). Usual EI should also apply for those unemployed.


----------



## andrewf

Eclectic12 said:


> Maybe ... but isn't that a pessimistic view?
> 
> I can find references to SARS vaccines ready for human trials in about twenty months. Trouble was it was considered contained and regional so that investors as well as gov't weren't willing to pay for the trials. An expert who has been studying corona virus since the '80s says she is aware of four SARS vaccines that this happened to.
> 
> What's different about this new one that makes you think in terms of a decade?
> 
> 
> There are also other things to keep in mind.
> 
> The first is that a potential vaccine is reported to already be in human trials, with something like another nineteen being worked on around the world. There's another four in animal trials.
> 
> The second is that the time for development is reported to be much quicker than the SARS days as work has been done on corona virus vaccines, even if human trials weren't funded.
> 
> The third is that this one is reported to share 80 to 90% of its genetic material with the virus that caused Sars, making variations on the SARS vaccines easier to adapt.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Definitely pessimistic, but we need to understand the worst case scenario if people are seriously entertaining the idea of maintaining the current level of shutdown until a vaccine is developed. It could be a _long_ time. You definitely would see compliance wane, especially if we got to a point where there are few active and new cases being detected.


----------



## Money172375

From someone who works in municipal government..........a 2 week (to start) Ontario stay-at-home order from Ford is imminent.

on a personal note.....is kayaking, boating, swimming allowed?
would They be allowed under a stay-at-home order?

seems the order in various US states can differ quite a bit.


----------



## agent99

Money172375 said:


> From someone who works in municipal government..........a 2 week (to start) Ontario stay-at-home order from Ford is imminent.
> 
> on a personal note.....is kayaking, boating, swimming allowed?
> would They be allowed under a stay-at-home order?
> 
> seems the order in various US states can differ quite a bit.


Recreational facilities are deemed non-essential, at least in Ontario. So marina and boating clubs are closed as are all swimming pools. Many parks too, and maybe that includes beach or lakefront parks? 

Water is still too cold for swimming anyway! And, we are supposed to stay at home except for buying food etc.

If you live on or near a lake and can launch a boat, can't see why you could not go out on the lake. I have only seen two boats this year on the lake that we look over. One looked like a small commercial boat of some type. The other was a sailor in a Laser - must have been freezing! I am sure fishermen will venture out before long.

See a lot of folks walking or biking. So long as we keep our distance, not a problem (according to Ford)


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> The worst case with an interest free loan is that we don't get the money back. Same as with a direct handout. The _real_ problem right now is cash flow. Get people cash so they don't starve and immediately default on all their obligations. We can decide when the dust settles and we have more time to be careful whether any of that debt should be forgiven/written off.
> 
> I agree that this is crazy, and unsustainable. It should have been in the form of a loan. Lots of people will get CERB that don't really need it but are eligible. A loan would be much less incentive to stop working in order to collect it. Maybe that is part of the problem because they needed people not to be incentivized to keep working in non-essential areas.
> 
> 
> I agree, it's why I think that CERB should be a loan, if the goal of this is to help with cash flow and liquidity and not causing a financial collapse.


I don't think CERB should be a loan, I think it should just be cash to everyone. It would be more fair.

The thing is with people nearly bankrupt, loaning them money just pushes more people into bankruptcy.
Those who scrape by and just barely pay it back feel screwed << Those are the two groups I care about "the most".

All these conditions and programs are just a bunch of red tape that makes it more difficult.
It could be really simple, if you are a citizen or PR and filed a tax return, you get cash


----------



## andrewf

That would be very expensive. I think we should take some time before making any rash decisions about how much debt to transfer from private to public. Making CERB a loan would not make anyone bankrupt in the near term if there were no payments for 12 months. 

In terms of the cash distributions, I think we agree. I just don't think we need to make any rash decisions about it.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> That would be very expensive. I think we should take some time before making any rash decisions about how much debt to transfer from private to public. Making CERB a loan would not make anyone bankrupt in the near term if there were no payments for 12 months.
> 
> In terms of the cash distributions, I think we agree. I just don't think we need to make any rash decisions about it.


My concern with 12 month loans is that these people were already nearly bankrupt, they can't afford another $10/wk in debt payments. The basic economic problem in this shutdown is that we have no slack in the system.

The whole world has been pushing efficiency, everything is leveraged and Just in Time.
I remember when there was a problem at a bank, and my company paychecks were delayed from Friday to Monday, people were freaking out. I feel it's only gotten worse since then.

If everyone had a 6 month (or even 3 month) emergency fund, we could afford to calmly think about and address the financial aspects in a few days, as it is the financial problems are so acute that they're distracting from the health problem.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> They never made a vaccine for the common cold, and AFAIK they've never successfully made a coronavirus vaccine ...


Maybe not the common cold but the H1N1 vaccine was developed relatively quickly.

As for a corona virus vaccine for humans, without completing the human and effectiveness trials, we can't know the four or five vaccines were effective. That said, human trials were ready to go years ago. Here is one of the later ones that couldn't find funding ... Scientists were close to a coronavirus vaccine years ago. Then the money dried up.




MrMatt said:


> ... It would be suprising that they create the very first coronavirus vaccine faster than any other vaccine in history?


Then I guess all these human trials or close to human trials are all wasted efforts then?









WSJ News Exclusive | Drugmaker Moderna Delivers First Experimental Coronavirus Vaccine for Human Testing


Moderna has shipped the first batch of the company’s rapidly developed coronavirus vaccine to researchers at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.




www.wsj.com












Coronavirus vaccine: US begins first human trial of coronavirus vaccine: Officials | Coronavirus Updates


The vaccine is called mRNA-1273 and was developed by the NIAID scientists and their collaborators at the biotechnology company Moderna, Inc., based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.




economictimes.indiatimes.com








__





A potential coronavirus vaccine funded by Bill Gates is set to begin testing in people, with the first patient expected to get it today






www.msn.com





There's also the Canadian company that expects to start human trials in July.

The UK is testing their vaccine on animals.


You don't think it's similarity to SARS wouldn't speed up the process?




MrMatt said:


> ... I think the multipronged strategy, including finding an effective treatment, is a good idea.


Agreed ... though I haven't seen anything saying other prongs are being ignored in favour of a vaccine.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Oh, I'm sure they'll actually push to the finish line on this, but past history isn't promising.


Interesting POV ... SARS vaccines didn't get any into human trials in well over a decade, with over a year plus required for development. Covid-19 vaccines have two in human trials in what, five months? With more candidates in the pipeline in under a year.

There's no guarantee they'll work but in terms of progress - it is light years ahead of past history.

I suspect part of the speed is how similar it is to SARS as well as likely having a huge market, spurring investment that was missing from the SARS progress.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

Some other info that suggests the pessimistic view of vaccine development might not be the case.



> ... Many viruses, including HIV and hepatitis C, have thwarted vaccine developers. But *the new coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), doesn’t appear to be a particularly formidable target. It changes slowly*, which means it’s not very good at dodging the immune system, and vaccines against the related coronaviruses that cause SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have worked in animal models ...
> 
> And unlike cold-causing viruses, which stay in the nose and throat, the new coronavirus targets the lower respiratory tract, where the immune response to a pathogen can be stronger, says Mark Slifka, an immunologist who studies vaccines at the Oregon National Primate Research Center. “When you get an infection in the lungs, you actually get high levels of antibodies and other immune cells from your bloodstream into that space.” ...
> 
> ... On 13 January, 3 days after Chinese researchers first made public the full RNA sequence of SARS-CoV-2, NIAID immunologist Barney Graham sent Moderna an optimized version of a gene that would become the backbone of its vaccine. Sixty-three days later, the first dose of the vaccine went into Haller and other volunteers participating in the small trial at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute.
> 
> In 2016, Graham had made a Zika virus vaccine that went from lab bench to the first volunteer in what he then thought was a lightning-fast 190 days. “*We beat that record by nearly 130 days*,” he says.
> 
> The effort benefited from lessons Graham learned from his past vaccine efforts, including his work on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) ...











With record-setting speed, vaccinemakers take their first shots at the new coronavirus


Two candidate vaccines start trials while dozens more are rushed into development




www.sciencemag.org






Cheers


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> My concern with 12 month loans is that these people were already nearly bankrupt, they can't afford another $10/wk in debt payments. The basic economic problem in this shutdown is that we have no slack in the system.
> 
> The whole world has been pushing efficiency, everything is leveraged and Just in Time.
> I remember when there was a problem at a bank, and my company paychecks were delayed from Friday to Monday, people were freaking out. I feel it's only gotten worse since then.
> 
> If everyone had a 6 month (or even 3 month) emergency fund, we could afford to calmly think about and address the financial aspects in a few days, as it is the financial problems are so acute that they're distracting from the health problem.


Well, if there was no repayments for 12 months, it can't possible make anyone less solvent.


----------



## andrewf

Eclectic12 said:


> Some other info that suggests the pessimistic view of vaccine development might not be the case.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> With record-setting speed, vaccinemakers take their first shots at the new coronavirus
> 
> 
> Two candidate vaccines start trials while dozens more are rushed into development
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.sciencemag.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers


Even if the pessimistic case end up being too pessimistic, we can't count on the optimistic case and plan to be locked in our houses until there is a vaccine. That just isn't the way this is going to unfold.


----------



## Money172375

As far as I know there are 7 Coronaviruses. 4 of which cause the common cold. The other 3 are MERS, SARS, Covid19. I don’t believe there has ever been a vaccine for a corona. I suspect it will prove a little more challenging than an influenza vaccine, which the world is pretty adept at making. We’ll get there as there will be a record number of people and dollars committed to it.


----------



## Longtimeago

We are beginning to see people talking about how we will transition back to 'normal'. While it only makes sense for government to be working on future planning, I think it is a big mistake to be talking about it at this point. We are still seeing people ignoring the parks closed etc. and talking about getting back to normal will just increase this kind of behaviour I believe.

Now is not the time to take our eye off the ball. Stay at home as much as possible has to continue to be where the emphasis is placed and on enforcing that.


----------



## james4beach

I'm also optimistic that humans will think of something. If nothing else, we're adaptable.

Perhaps there won't be a vaccination, but maybe treatments will improve dramatically. So perhaps we will get to the point where people go into hospital, but are easily treated, and return to life as normal.

Another possibility is that the disease remains deadly, but we are forced to dramatically step up tracking of cases and monitoring of isolation & contagion. Other countries are showing it's possible. Look at Singapore, Taiwan, maybe South Korea too... good results from all of these I think.

In Taiwan, children still go to school each day! All parents monitor temperatures in the morning. At school, kids have little plastic isolation shields around their desk.

There are many possible solutions to all of this. And by the way, why are there so few cases and so few deaths in Australia? Canada is very similar to Australia and only slightly larger population. What is Australia doing differently?

Two possible explanations I can think of. (1) the heat and sun in Australia, perhaps all the UV is helping kill viruses, (2) Australians are pretty good at following government rules. Whenever I'm there, I always think to myself, there sure are a lot of signs and regulations for everything... but Australians do seem to follow guidance and rules much better. In Canada we have a bit of that unfortunate American tendency to "do whatever the hell I want"


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> From someone who works in municipal government..........a 2 week (to start) Ontario stay-at-home order from Ford is imminent.
> 
> on a personal note.....is kayaking, boating, swimming allowed?
> would They be allowed under a stay-at-home order?
> 
> seems the order in various US states can differ quite a bit.


Going out for some fresh air and/or exercise is not the problem Money172375, it is how you do that which CAN be a problem. A walk around the block is fine but what if someone decides to go for a drive in their car and they break down 20kms. from home? Now they are going to precipitate an interaction with others.

The same is true of kayaking, boating or swimming. If something goes wrong and you have to call for help, you will come in contact with others. In theory, even a walk around the block could result in say a heart attack and help having to be called but the chances of that happening are very low. The chances increase when you get into a boat or a vehicle, or even on bicycle. Even if you don't need to call for medical help, a breakdown could see you stuck a long way from home and needing transportation back.

I don't think anyone who is trying to do their part should be going out for fresh air/exercise in any form other than walking.


----------



## moderator2

Longtimeago said:


> I don't think anyone who is trying to do their part should be going out for fresh air/exercise in any form other than walking.


That's ridiculous and quite extreme. You might be endangering lives by telling people to avoid exercise and fresh air. Lung health is important, and many people suffer from conditions like diabetes, obesity and high blood pressure. All of these are linked with worse outcomes for COVID-19.

Continuing exercise patterns is very important. Walking is great of course, but also biking and other more vigorous activities. And if someone lives near a park, there's no reason for them to avoid some hiking, as long as they avoid other people.

You seem overly focused on the "stay inside" message without considering the negative health consequences of doing so. If we get a surge in things like diabetes and obesity, possibly alcoholism too, we are going to have worse COVID-19 outcomes.

Everyone being trapped inside has other adverse health consequences as well. Alcoholism is one that comes to mind, but there will also be more domestic violence and abuse of various forms. Additionally there is increased risk of depression, suicide, and all kinds of mental health consequences.

Don't be so narrowly focused.


----------



## Longtimeago

moderator2 said:


> That's ridiculous and quite extreme. You might be endangering lives by telling people to avoid exercise and fresh air. Lung health is important, and many people suffer from conditions like diabetes, obesity and high blood pressure. All of these are linked with worse outcomes for COVID-19.
> 
> Continuing exercise patterns is very important. Walking is great of course, but also biking and other more vigorous activities. And if someone lives near a park, there's no reason for them to avoid some hiking, as long as they avoid other people.
> 
> You seem overly focused on the "stay inside" message without considering the negative health consequences of doing so. If we get a surge in things like diabetes and obesity, possibly alcoholism too, we are going to have worse COVID-19 outcomes.
> 
> Everyone being trapped inside has other adverse health consequences as well. Alcoholism is one that comes to mind, but there will also be more domestic violence and abuse of various forms. Additionally there is increased risk of depression, suicide, and all kinds of mental health consequences.
> 
> Don't be so narrowly focused.


You are entitled to an opinion moderator2, as am I.

I am not suggesting at all that people not go out for some fresh air/exercise. I am simply suggesting they do so in the way LEAST likely to result in interactions with others. If you want 'vigorous activity', power walk. 

Parks are closed and no one should be hiking in them. The photos and videos we have seen show us just what happens with that. You see hundreds of people no doubt each of which is just 'out for a hike in the park'. They CAN'T avoid other people as you suggest, when there are simply too many of them doing it. If you want to go to Algonquin Park or Jasper Park and do some backcountry hiking using a map and compass, yeah, you'll be alone no doubt but that is not true in Stanley Park in Vancouver or anywhere along Toronto's lake front.

I am narrowly focused on what MATTERS. This virus is spread person to person. Staying at home as much as POSSIBLE is the MOST effective measure we can take to slow down and reduce the spread. I know there are still people even some who post in this forum, who are going out in their car several times a week. I see all the vehicles going past the front of my house every day who cannot all be going to work or to buy groceries and pick up prescriptions. Where then are they all going and to do what?

Yes there can and will be adverse affects from people staying home. But you present them as an EXCUSE as far as I am concerned. Anyone can SELF-JUSTIFY the actions they take. Just as those who went on March Break when we KNEW it was not a good idea to be travelling then, justified their actions. We had posters in this forum saying, 'now is not the time to be travelling anywhere' and posters who were saying, 'I've paid my money, can't get a refund and I assess the risk as low, so I'm going.' That is an example of some people seeing it as it is and some people self-justifying because they don't want to see it as it is.

Right now we need to stay home as much as POSSIBLE. That word 'possible' isn't that hard to define. It means do not do anything non-essential. But a lot of people seem to define it as 'do not do anything except what I can self-justify to myself as needing to do.'


----------



## sags

Well LTA.......people who left on cruise ships on March 15, people attending Mardi Gras in New Orleans, 1500 dentists attending a conference, doctors attending a curling event, world leaders surrounding themselves with others, nursing homes who didn't separate the infected from others.

There is a WTF story every day.


----------



## sags

"coming in the days and weeks ahead" is getting a little lame from our PM and leaders.

They announce a new program and then have no clue as to how it will run. It is all waiting to be passed by Parliament.

Personally, I think the Conservatives are making a mistake by forcing committee meetings and votes before the government can enact legislation.

Canadians don't want to hear all that political mumbo jumbo right now.

It appears there is a move afoot to cancel the Conservative leadership contest to allow Doug Ford to enter the race.

I didn't vote for Ford in the Provincial election. I likely would vote for him in the Federal election.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> "coming in the days and weeks ahead" is getting a little lame from our PM and leaders.
> 
> They announce a new program and then have no clue as to how it will run. It is all waiting to be passed by Parliament.
> 
> Personally, I think the Conservatives are making a mistake by forcing committee meetings and votes before the government can enact legislation.
> 
> Canadians don't want to hear all that political mumbo jumbo right now.
> 
> It appears there is a move afoot to cancel the Conservative leadership contest to allow Doug Ford to enter the race.
> 
> I didn't vote for Ford in the Provincial election. I likely would vote for him in the Federal election.


I didn't vote for Ford either and my opinion of him was very low indeed. But I have to say he does seem to have stepped up and shown some leadership and decisiveness in this current situation. I don't know if that would be enough to get me to vote for him though. It would depend on the competition he was up against.


----------



## Longtimeago

Thinking for a moment about Fords recent actions, I find myself wondering how much of it is HIS actions and how much of it is simply following professional advice.

I mean, this is a health crisis, not a political crisis. We have plenty of well qualified health professsionals at every level of government and all a politician has to do right now is follow their advice. It may look like the politicians are stepping up and doing the right things but really who is actually driving the bus? The politicians or the Chief Medical Officers, Public Health Officers, etc.?

Is Trudeau making decisions or simply implementing what Dr. Tam is advising him to do is another example.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

More evidence piling up that hydroxychloroquine + zinc is the cure for Covid-19. If this pans out the crisis will be over very quickly.


----------



## andrewf

^ If he's right, it sounds like it could be replicated very quickly in clinical trials elsewhere to prove its effectiveness.


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> More evidence piling up that hydroxychloroquine + zinc is the cure for Covid-19. If this pans out the crisis will be over very quickly.


Hope he's right but he doesn't state anything significant, like how many patients he has treated. In any case, further clinical trials will reveal the results.


----------



## m3s

Sweden was using hydroxychloroquine and stopped due to severe side effects such as loss of vision. High doses of such a potent drug needs to be studied

Heavy use of anti-malarials are known to soldiers to cause permanent psychological effects. It can take decades to realize what damage a powerful drug can do


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Well, if there was no repayments for 12 months, it can't possible make anyone less solvent.


I don't understand your logic.
If someone was nearly bankrupt, adding more debt, even if you say "don't pay it back for a long time", they still have more debt and they are in a worse position.

If you simply increase someones debt load, you're making them less solvent?


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> As far as I know there are 7 Coronaviruses. 4 of which cause the common cold. The other 3 are MERS, SARS, Covid19. I don’t believe there has ever been a vaccine for a corona. I suspect it will prove a little more challenging than an influenza vaccine, which the world is pretty adept at making. We’ll get there as there will be a record number of people and dollars committed to it.


Nope, there are lots of coronaviruses.

I agree that it will likely be more challenging than the flu vaccine, they've likely generated vaccines against several hundred strains of the flu by now. They're really good at it.

I'm not doubting that a covid19 vaccine can be done, but I'm skeptical on an extremely short timeline for something that's never been done.
To be fair, when you pull out all the stops amazing things can happen, but I'm conservative by nature.







__





COVID-19: Symptoms, treatment, what to do if you feel sick - Canada.ca


Symptoms of COVID-19 (coronavirus), what to do if have severe symptoms, feel sick or were exposed, caring for others, treating COVID-19 and long-term symptoms.




www.canada.ca





*About coronaviruses*
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses. Some cause illness in people and others cause illness in animals. Human coronaviruses are common and are typically associated with mild illnesses, similar to the common cold.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I don't understand your logic.
> If someone was nearly bankrupt, adding more debt, even if you say "don't pay it back for a long time", they still have more debt and they are in a worse position.
> 
> If you simply increase someones debt load, you're making them less solvent?


How are they worse off than getting nothing. Asset of $2k cash, liability of $2k loan with no repayment for 12 months. It helps if their alternative was racking up their credit card at 20% p.a.

ETA: obviously they are better off getting money for nothing. But that would cost the government ~30x a 1 year no interest loan for the same cash flow benefit. The purpose of getting people cash now is that most people are highly illiquid and don't have good options for low cost borrowing. I am coming from a place of not senselessly blowing hundreds of billions of dollars in public borrowing while still helping people in the short term. We can still spend those hundreds of billions later, if needed. But we should do it after some reflection. I think it being a loan would make it less tempting for those who could be working (essential services are hiring). As it stands people can choose $2k money for nothing but they are obliged not to work to get it.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> How are they worse off than getting nothing. Asset of $2k cash, liability of $2k loan with no repayment for 12 months. It helps if their alternative was racking up their credit card at 20% p.a.
> 
> ETA: obviously they are better off getting money for nothing. But that would cost the government ~30x a 1 year no interest loan for the same cash flow benefit. The purpose of getting people cash now is that most people are highly illiquid and don't have good options for low cost borrowing. I am coming from a place of not senselessly blowing hundreds of billions of dollars in public borrowing while still helping people in the short term. We can still spend those hundreds of billions later, if needed. But we should do it after some reflection. I think it being a loan would make it less tempting for those who could be working (essential services are hiring). As it stands people can choose $2k money for nothing but they are obliged not to work to get it.


I'm not saying they're worse off than getting nothing.
I'm saying that they should have just written a check for $2k.

Lets be honest, lots of people won't be able to pay back the money anyway. It doesn't matter if you give them 12 months, or 12 years.
So why not be honest with everyone and just give them $2k.

People today aren't just highly illiquid, they're overly leveraged. 
They have no net worth, even those with a positive net worth, it's likely heavily tilted to real estate, which is just begging for a crash.
No evictions is going to kill landlords, and the RE market unless they do something.


We've already spent almost a years budget on COVID-19, and they're not slowing down. 
This is going to be insane debt, or massive inflation.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> *About coronaviruses*
> Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses. Some cause illness in people and others cause illness in animals. Human coronaviruses are common and are typically associated with mild illnesses, similar to the common cold.


It appears covid-19 did transfer to Tigers in the US and there are some reports worldwide that it transfered to a few pets.


----------



## m3s

Google Analytics is now sharing COVID-19 Mobility Reports by region

Here's a summary someone made of the data (not sure how accurate)


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## Money172375

correction on my post...there seems to be 7 known Coronaviruses that can infect humans.





__





Human Coronavirus Types | CDC


CDC Human Coronavirus Types: Information about the six types of coronaviruses including MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.




www.cdc.gov


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> correction on my post...there seems to be 7 known Coronaviruses that can infect humans.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Human Coronavirus Types | CDC
> 
> 
> CDC Human Coronavirus Types: Information about the six types of coronaviruses including MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov


But there are a very large number of Coronaviruses. It is extremely likely that more of them will generate a strain that can infect humans.


----------



## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> As far as I know there are 7 Coronaviruses. 4 of which cause the common cold. The other 3 are MERS, SARS, Covid19. I don’t believe there has ever been a vaccine for a corona ...


I suspect you mean ones that are known to infect humans. In the animal world, there's a lot more than seven. 

*Edit:*
I see a correction confirms what I was thinking.


For the ones that are known to infect humans, there are none that have completed human trials, including SARS.



> But because there are currently no treatments for 2019-nCoV, the authors suggest SARS vaccines could be a temporary solution. A SARS vaccine was developed in response to the 2002 outbreak, but was never sold since public health measures got the disease under control before it was ready.











SARS Vaccine Could Be Stopgap Measure Against the New Coronavirus, Study Suggests


Vaccines developed, but never used, against SARS could offer hope in the search for treatments for the new coronavirus.




www.discovermagazine.com








> ... Back in 2010, researchers at Baylor College of Medicine and the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston developed a potential vaccine for SARS 1, which is another type of coronavirus ... it’s been sitting in a freezer for several years because researchers had trouble generating interest (and therefore funding) for clinical studies once the outbreak subsided, Dr. Peter Hotez told NBC News this week.











Coronavirus Vaccine Developed A Decade Ago Could Be ‘Ahead Of The Curve’ | Houston Public Media


A vaccine, developed by Houston-area researchers beginning in 2010, has been shelved due to a lack of funding but is "worth investigating" for potential use on the current coronavirus outbreak.




www.houstonpublicmedia.org





The WHO has a list of thirty SARS candidate vaccines.

BTW ... it seems that because of the virus is SARS-CoV that caused SARS and the virus SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19, which is the disease itself. Maybe the names are that way to underline that about 80 to 90 percent of the genetic code is the same.




> ... I suspect it will prove a little more challenging than an influenza vaccine, which the world is pretty adept at making.


Time will tell ... some thing the similarities as well as previous work done will help.

A second vaccine is about to start a safety test in humans.








U.S. company poised to start COVID-19 vaccine safety test


A second U.S. company is poised to begin a small safety test of a vaccine against the new coronavirus.




www.ctvnews.ca






Cheers


----------



## sags

I believe there are other vaccine trials around the world. Those two are only in the US.

Won't know until after successful Phase 2 clinical trials if they have any promise.

Hopefully several vaccines will be successful so different strategies to prevent the virus are available.

A combination treatment and vaccine would be the Nobel Peace Prize winner.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I believe there are other vaccine trials around the world. Those two are only in the US.
> 
> Won't know until after successful Phase 2 clinical trials if they have any promise.
> 
> Hopefully several vaccines will be successful so different strategies to prevent the virus are available.
> 
> A combination treatment and vaccine would be the Nobel Peace Prize winner.


Uhh no it woulnd't It would be in medicine or bioloty.


Also vaccines and treatments are so vastly different, I can't conceptually understand how such a substance would work two such diametrically opposite processes.


----------



## ian

testing in calgary :


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-19-clinical-trial-hydroxychloroquine-1.5525499


----------



## sags

Countries is Asia and Europe have enacted more stringent rules again, as second waves of the pandemic appear to be erupting.

This virus is terrible because people with no symptoms are spreading the virus. In our city a city bus driver was infected by a passenger.

They don't know who the passenger was or who they were in contact with, but they know the person is traveling around the city on the bus.

Until we get a) a treatment or vaccine or b) PPE for everyone......this economy isn't going to re-open anytime soon.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> Countries is Asia and Europe have enacted more stringent rules again, as second waves of the pandemic appear to be erupting.
> 
> This virus is terrible because people with no symptoms are spreading the virus. In our city a city bus driver was infected by a passenger.
> 
> They don't know who the passenger was or who they were in contact with, but they know the person is traveling around the city on the bus.
> 
> Until we get a) a treatment or vaccine or b) PPE for everyone......this economy isn't going to re-open anytime soon.


I think there will be gradual easing to allow for hospitals to deal with the new cases. I think once the hospitals say they have capacity, you’ll start to see things open up. The most vulnerable will still be encouraged to isolate. One theory that’s out there is that we’re all gonna catch this disease...let’s just do it slowly over time while the possible vaccine is developed. if I we’re to guess, I would say current measures will be place til May orJune.......testing needs to be ramped out massively to catch the predicted fall wave.


----------



## bgc_fan

ian said:


> testing in calgary :
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-19-clinical-trial-hydroxychloroquine-1.5525499


It's important to note that based on 3 previous studies that the results have been mixed and you actually got all three possible results:
1. Hydroxychloroquine helped.
2. Hydroxychloroquine and placebo showed no difference.
3. Taking placebo alone was able to turn a positive result to a negative result.

I'm sure you'd have to look into the studies more in detail to understand why there may have been such differences, i.e. maybe for studies 2 and 3, most of the participants were near the end of covid19 running its course. Or maybe the participants were significantly different and not really randomized and what you are seeing aren't results related to HCQ effectiveness, but more due to the people's initial health situation, i.e. smokers, have underlying respiratory conditions.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> I think there will be gradual easing to allow for hospitals to deal with the new cases. I think once the hospitals say they have capacity, you’ll start to see things open up. The most vulnerable will still be encouraged to isolate. One theory that’s out there is that we’re all gonna catch this disease...let’s just do it slowly over time while the possible vaccine is developed. if I we’re to guess, I would say current measures will be place til May orJune.......testing needs to be ramped out massively to catch the predicted fall wave.


I think you are dreaming Money172375. Looking at the models shown by the individual provinces; looking at the models shown by the Federal Government this morning and listening to Dr. Tam, then reading BETWEEN the lines, I do not see current measures easing at all till late summer at best.

In order not to have the public panic, they release these model figures but avoid actually saying anything about the time line. It's there on the model, they just don't talk about it. On the federal model as well as some provincial models, the timeline clearly shows it going into 2021 if we don't do well in controlling spread. People do not want to hear that they will have to keep up physical distancing for a year perhaps. 

What do you think will ease when they do start to ease? I don't see physical distancing easing. That means, no groups which in turn means, no day at the beach this summer; no restaurants or bars open. No large numbers of people going to the cottage for the weekends. etc. etc. No events including sports. If it takes longer than the end of the summer for this first wave to bottom out, then that means no easing for an even longer period of time. 

Nor does reaching the bottom of the curve mean the risk is zero. The risk will continue until we have either a vaccine or a cure available to the general public. Easing of the measures in place will probably result in subsequent smaller waves, with restrictions having to be put back in place each time they occur unless they can test and trace each time to a degree that breaks the chains each time. 

This is not going to end anytime soon and my fear is that people are not going to continue to follow the restrictions we are being asked to follow. If that happens, that will result in more cases and more deaths and an even longer period of time before we reach the bottom of the curve. 

Even I as someone in the high risk category have a hard time saying to myself that I am going to have to stay home and have groceries etc. delivered for a year. Yet that may be the reality unless I am willing to risk catching the virus before a vaccine is available.


----------



## cainvest

Money172375 said:


> One theory that’s out there is that we’re all gonna catch this disease...let’s just do it slowly over time while the possible vaccine is developed.


This may indeed be the sad reality we'll need to face in the future.


----------



## Money172375

My opinion was based on Wuhan being locked down for 2.5 months....72 days I believe. I‘m hoping we’re in a better spot than them. not saying it will be “all-open” but I think some measures will be eased by June. could see some non-essential retailers open....the Home Depots, Canadian Tire Etc. I’m near a major lake.....I can see boat launches opening up.

June is still quite a ways away...and we’ve had these measures for what...3 weeks already.

i think the easing will occur in the opposite way the restrictions were introduced. Groups of 10 allowed, 50....250 etc. 

Cottaging (whether owned by you...or rented) will not stop. People will need the escape. Unless a mandatory stay at home order is introduced preventing inter-city travel.

if your opinion holds true...that means school won’t return in September. No way they are going to let thousands of youth into a confined building.


----------



## andrewf

Agree. I think the mandate to avoid even seeing family will be lifted in a few weeks. Kids will be back in school in September (maybe wearing masks). I think the advice not to go to cottages will also be lifted. It is entirely possible to go to a cottage while maintaining your 'bubble'.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> My opinion was based on Wuhan being locked down for 2.5 months....72 days I believe. I‘m hoping we’re in a better spot than them. not saying it will be “all-open” but I think some measures will be eased by June. could see some non-essential retailers open....the Home Depots, Canadian Tire Etc. I’m near a major lake.....I can see boat launches opening up.
> 
> June is still quite a ways away...and we’ve had these measures for what...3 weeks already.
> 
> i think the easing will occur in the opposite way the restrictions were introduced. Groups of 10 allowed, 50....250 etc.
> 
> Cottaging (whether owned by you...or rented) will not stop. People will need the escape. Unless a mandatory stay at home order is introduced preventing inter-city travel.
> 
> if your opinion holds true...that means school won’t return in September. No way they are going to let thousands of youth into a confined building.


Well apply some logic to the Federal models released this morning. The BEST case scenario they showed was an infection rate of 1-10% reaching the bottom of the curve IN the summer, not May or June. Let's suppose that we meet that TARGET.

Then you could see some easing happening at that point. But that is their BEST case scenario. What if we don't reach the bottom of the curve until October? No way to start easing up on anything until then at the Federal level. Individual Provinces who are ahead of the national curve and reach the bottom of their curves earlier than average may be able to ease some Provincial restrictions but only if they do not get a second wave starting as a result or can stop a second wave with testing and tracing very quickly.

I'm having a hard time accepting that we will only see a 1-10% infection rate overall. I just don't have enough confidence that the general public will continue to do what they need to do for that to be achieved. Not if it realistically means continuing to self-isolate and physical distance themselves for at least 3 more months. People are 'antsy' now to get out. I just don't trust human behaviour enough to believe they will continue to comply with the restrictions.

Yesterday, I saw more than a dozen motorcyclists obviously out just for a day ride. I also saw more personal vehicles than could reasonably be accounted for by 'essential travel'. People as we know are defying the orders to stay out of parks, playgrounds, etc. Do you think they are going to stay away from beaches as the weather gets better? The number of people defying the restrictions is only going to get worse in my opinion.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Agree. I think the mandate to avoid even seeing family will be lifted in a few weeks. Kids will be back in school in September (maybe wearing masks). I think the advice not to go to cottages will also be lifted. It is entirely possible to go to a cottage while maintaining your 'bubble'.


OK, well let's look at a family gathering as an example andrewf. If you have self-isolated for 14 days and your other family members have isolated for 14 days, then that would certainly mean you should be quite safe to get together. But what if you went to a restaurant last week? Then would you say it would be safe for you to visit family? What if someone is back at work Monday to Friday? Are they OK to visit family for Sunday dinner? If some family members are at high risk, is it OK to visit them or include them in a family gathering? It's not so simple is it.


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## sags

Why are the Conservatives and NDP holding up the legislation ? Would they dare to vote against it ? Now is not the time for political posturing.


----------



## Plugging Along

Longtimeago said:


> OK, well let's look at a family gathering as an example andrewf. If you have self-isolated for 14 days and your other family members have isolated for 14 days, then that would certainly mean you should be quite safe to get together. But what if you went to a restaurant last week? Then would you say it would be safe for you to visit family? What if someone is back at work Monday to Friday? Are they OK to visit family for Sunday dinner? If some family members are at high risk, is it OK to visit them or include them in a family gathering? It's not so simple is it.


 Our health minister said a buddy family is perfectly acceptable IF both families follows the rules. The rules are simple here, no contact with anyone outside of the 14 days for anyone in the family. The rules are simple. If you had outside of your home contact in 14 days, you are not safe. It difficult to follow, but that's what I have put in place with my dad to help him. He doesn't go out at all other then to sit on his porch or a little walk around his driveway. I do all my essential errands in a two day period, doctors, groceries, etc. Then after 14 days of being out, then I will visit my dad do what ever he needs, and right after I leave his house, I will start my errand cycle. My sibling does a cycle that starts about a week later so there is someone that can see him each week.

It's is very difficult to implement, but simple to do. During our two weeks, no groceries, take out or even delivery, we all work from home, kids aren't allowed to see anyone. If anyone breaks it, then we wait two weeks. No point in risking my fathers health.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> OK, well let's look at a family gathering as an example andrewf. If you have self-isolated for 14 days and your other family members have isolated for 14 days, then that would certainly mean you should be quite safe to get together. But what if you went to a restaurant last week? Then would you say it would be safe for you to visit family? What if someone is back at work Monday to Friday? Are they OK to visit family for Sunday dinner? If some family members are at high risk, is it OK to visit them or include them in a family gathering? It's not so simple is it.


I think here in the real world, we all take a balance of risks. We have people working at Subway making sandwiches for pickup. You aren't wailing on the floor tearing your shirt worrying about these people. Once the rate of spread has fallen to a low level and the health care system is on top of testing and PPE, life has to start returning to a degree of normalcy. If people are doing a good job of isolating, I don't see why they can't see family. Do you really expect people to hide in their homes and not see even close relatives for a year?

Wuhan is starting to return to normal, even though they are finding the odd new case. Do you think China is making a huge mistake?


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> I think you are dreaming Money172375.
> ...
> Yet that may be the reality unless I am willing to risk catching the virus before a vaccine is available.


And I think anyone contemplating a vaccine is dreaming. I doubt very much it can be done. 

What we are not being told is that almost everyone will eventually pick up the virus. We can do it in slow motion and live under burdensome restrictions for years (maybe 5 years or so) or we can bite the bullet and let 'er rip - just let nature take its course without trying to prolong the agony. The former has the advantage of not overwhelming the health care system, while perhaps destroying the economy. On the economy front, it seems that no one on CMF is suffering in that regard. Au contraire, recent posts here suggest many here have found ways to make a lot of money quickly due to the current situation. As for the brakes off scenario, it will result in a much higher death rate. But mostly in the aged pea category (including moi, over 60). Me, I'll take my chances. I would prefer just to let it spread quickly and be done with it. I have had a great 60+ years and, to be honest, I never had it figured to live forever. If it's now my time, I'll accept in good grace.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> Why are the Conservatives and NDP holding up the legislation ? Would they dare to vote against it ? Now is not the time for political posturing.


Maybe the Liberals are sneaking in some pork for their friends or trying to pass another law to give them unrestrained power. It's the duty of the opposing parties to be diligent, even in a crisis.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Why are the Conservatives and NDP holding up the legislation ? Would they dare to vote against it ? Now is not the time for political posturing.


Apparently the opposition thinks it's bad legislation.
They "dared" to shoot down the power grab.

Presenting a bill that is not acceptable to all 3 of the opposition parties, if there is political posturing, it's on the part of Trudeau daring the opposition to block his bill.

Trudeau has to remember he is the PM in a minority government, and he really has to stop playing these games.
It's an emergency, everyone is on board and paddling the same way. He should stick to managing the crisis.

As far as the virtual or remote Parliament, they have to make sure that it works properly. Apparently there are concerns, that our elected representatives think need to be addressed.
I don't know what they are, but this is important.


This is like online voting, there is no way to have a secure free vote over the internet. I am completely unwilling to switch to a system that is not secure, or not free. Such a system is likely not possible.
What I'm concerned about is that we already have online voting, without the required privacy or security in place. I'm concerned that a "virtual parliment' will further encourage the expansion of these systems.


If Trudeau was really confident in his plans, he's put together a few small clean bills with each aspect and have them voted on.
Instead it sounds like he's playing politics and trying to push an omnibus bill.


----------



## andrewf

We don't know what the substance of the negotiations are between the parties. My understanding is there is a sticking point about being able to hold Parliamentary sessions virtually, which Trudeau was expressing support for. I'm not sure the substance of the oppositions' opposition to that.


----------



## like_to_retire

like_to_retire said:


> I just don't see how we can end the isolation until a vaccine is ready. A single person left with the virus could become the new patient zero and it would start all over again. Until I'm lining up at my local high school gym getting a vaccine needle, then we will all have to stay home. That would be in the 18-24 month range as they've indicated, unless they cut corners on testing I suppose.





andrewf said:


> This is crazy. We need a few months to get the number of active cases down, highly capable testing/contact tracing and prepare healthcare system. Then we will all need to get back to work with reasonable safety measures. China is already back to work. Had we acted earlier, we could have maybe shortened the quarantine period, but the virus started spreading rampantly. Saying that the current situation needs to last for two years is nuts.




No return to ‘normality’ until coronavirus vaccine is available, Trudeau says......
Even then, “there will be things we just aren’t able to do” for a year to 18 months, he added............








No return to ‘normality’ until coronavirus vaccine is available, Trudeau says | Globalnews.ca


"We will have to remain vigilant for at least a year," the prime minister said on Thursday during his news conference on Canada's response to COVID-19.




globalnews.ca





ltr


----------



## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> We don't know what the substance of the negotiations are between the parties. My understanding is there is a sticking point about being able to hold Parliamentary sessions virtually, which Trudeau was expressing support for. I'm not sure the substance of the oppositions' opposition to that.


My understanding is that the opposition wants to have a better review of the legislation so that they can limit the actual sitting time in parliament, and not have a marathon session debating all the details.. As for virtual sessions, it's something that would take weeks to put together, particularly if security is an issue.


----------



## andrewf

like_to_retire said:


> No return to ‘normality’ until coronavirus vaccine is available, Trudeau says......
> Even then, “there will be things we just aren’t able to do” for a year to 18 months, he added............
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No return to ‘normality’ until coronavirus vaccine is available, Trudeau says | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> "We will have to remain vigilant for at least a year," the prime minister said on Thursday during his news conference on Canada's response to COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ltr


Trudeau does not mean that the status quo will persist until a vaccine is deployed. He means we won't be fully back to normal until then, which I agree with. The current situation is untenable. We will bankrupt the country if we keep everyone at home for a year. Nevermind our society is going to start to crumble due to lack of maintenance.


----------



## andrewf

bgc_fan said:


> My understanding is that the opposition wants to have a better review of the legislation so that they can limit the actual sitting time in parliament, and not have a marathon session debating all the details.. As for virtual sessions, it's something that would take weeks to put together, particularly if security is an issue.


Most votes in Parliament are public, so security is not really too much of a concern. You could hold free votes by mail (cumbersome).


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> We don't know what the substance of the negotiations are between the parties. My understanding is there is a sticking point about being able to hold Parliamentary sessions virtually, which Trudeau was expressing support for. I'm not sure the substance of the oppositions' opposition to that.


We don't have the information to determine what the real issues are.
I'm sure that the reports will be appropriately biased so they'll fill whatever narrative the particular reporter wishes to present.

I would expect that there will be some advantage seeking, because quite honestly that is what the political leaders SHOULD be doing. Yes the power grab that Trudeau attempted was wrong and distasteful etc etc, however it was also his job, he should have just been a little less blatant.


----------



## sags

I am trying to think of how any partial reopening of the economy is possible, with no customers and disrupted supply chains.

It will be interesting to see the specific sectors that could reopen.

CNBC discussed business life after the COVID and it sounds like there will be major changes expected.

No more "just in time" business practice. It will "just in case" business practices. There will be de-globalization as companies withdraw from China and move closer to their customer base. There is a likelihood of many companies becoming nationalized as a result of bailouts. Companies that purposefully avoided taxes like cruise ships will have to enter partnerships with the government to receive bailout money. The aftermath of the COVID will be similar to the US drive for oil independence. People will demand independence of China and other countries for a wide array of goods and services. There will be a rise in protectionism.

It sounds like business will move back to the model before globalization.


----------



## sags

I think if the opposition had legitimate concerns we would have heard about them already.

It is likely the opposition parties aren't getting any publicity while the Liberals are getting free media all day long.

I have seen Andrew Scheer once on television since the pandemic began and haven't seen Jagmeet Singh at all.

Just like for Joe Biden, it is hard to make yourself relevant from your basement while the government in power has the press attention 24/7.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> I am trying to think of how any partial reopening of the economy is possible, with no customers and disrupted supply chains.
> 
> It will be interesting to see the specific sectors that could reopen.
> 
> CNBC discussed business life after the COVID and it sounds like there will be major changes expected.
> 
> No more "just in time" business practice. It will "just in case" business practices. There will be de-globalization as companies withdraw from China and move closer to their customer base. There is a likelihood of many companies becoming nationalized as a result of bailouts. Companies that purposefully avoided taxes like cruise ships will have to enter partnerships with the government to receive bailout money. The aftermath of the COVID will be similar to the US drive for oil independence. People will demand independence of China and other countries for a wide array of goods and services. There will be a rise in protectionism.
> 
> It sounds like business will move back to the model before globalization.


I can see it in strategic areas wrt pandemics. But generally, no. JIT is just so cost effective, unless governments mandate that companies keep stockpiles, etc. companies will be forced to operate using JIT principles or become uncompetitive. It may lead to shorter supply chains and diversification of supply, but we've experienced similar things in the past that disrupted specific markets and I'm not sure those industries really changed their practices. Thinking of the hard drive shortage that followed severe flooding in Thailand in 2011.

I do think this is possible in areas like PPE production and productions of medicines and their chemical inputs. Really, it's probably more effective to maintain appropriate stockpiles. Ontario almost did it right but we forgot to maintain our stockpile of 55M masks, etc.


----------



## ian

The bill will get passed in some form. The very last thing the opposition party(s) want is an election. They would be trounced.


----------



## andrewf

An election would be a catastrophe.


----------



## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> Most votes in Parliament are public, so security is not really too much of a concern. You could hold free votes by mail (cumbersome).


When we refer to security, we're talking about ensuring that the virtual feeds can't get hacked so that other people can't start messing with the feeds and start streaming things like porn online, e.g. what can happen with Zoom. Besides which, I'm not sure what platforms can accommodating having interaction with 300+ people. A one-way stream is relatively easy, having all 300 being able to interact individually is probably a little more complicated.


----------



## andrewf

^That requires rather rudimentary security (out of the box functionality, you just need to set a password). I use video conferencing at work and have never seen anything like the zoom antics I've been hearing about.

Scalability is a good question. I'm sure there are commercially available softwares available. Most participants just need to be able to receive the live feed. Only participants who are recognized to speak need to be connected to broadcast video/audio. It may not be as fluid as doing it in person, but I think it is a preferable solution to not having most MPs participating in Parliament. Parliament is fundamental to our democratic process.


----------



## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> ^That requires rather rudimentary security (out of the box functionality, you just need to set a password). I use video conferencing at work and have never seen anything like the zoom antics I've been hearing about.


I don't know how your work set things up, but usually the government has specific networking requirements, including Shared Services Canada to manage the IT. Usually, that precludes someone using their personal computer to connect to the government network, instead will need to use a government-issued laptop using VPN software. Not sure if all MPs are issued these, but regardless, with the dependence on the government lines, there may not be sufficient capacity to accommodate. (I'm speculating on the later). That can be a reason why it can take some time to set up.


----------



## andrewf

I'm sure we could tie things up in bureaucratic security hell (my company is very good at this), but given the circumstances, this seems like a 'get it done' situation. So while it may perhaps not be optimal, they should be able to get something done. The alternative is to continue to govern without the vast majority of MPs participating. I think that becomes problematic from a legitimacy perspective.

I hope all MPs have government issued devices for secure communication. My company issues their own devices too. But I can use our collaboration software on a BYOD basis as well. As long as they are not sharing state secrets or holding in camera meetings, I don't see the need for exceptionally high security standards. I mean, I'm sure a lot of government business gets done on commercially available teleconferencing services.


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> I mean, I'm sure a lot of government business gets done on commercially available teleconferencing services.


Commercial telecom software but the government network is carefully segregated. If you're at home you have to use a VPN (slow when everyone is using it) on a certified device with all updated security patches etc

There's much better tech available today like biometric ID, secure enclaves (both software and hardware enclaves separated entirely from the OS and public networks) A typical apple device has all this but government lags


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> If you're at home you have to use a VPN (slow when everyone is using it) on a certified device with all updated security patches etc


Standard practice for large organizations. But doesn't stop companies from using Webex, Skype, etc. for video conferencing. I'm sure we can make this complicated.


----------



## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> Standard practice for large organizations. But doesn't stop companies from using Webex, Skype, etc. for video conferencing. I'm sure we can make this complicated.


Government policies don't allow anything but certified applications to run on government networks. People who want to collaborate at the moment use their personal computers with Skype or Google Hangouts, but obviously have an air gap between their government data and just discussions. The process to certify new programs can be pretty arduous in the government.


----------



## sags

Donald Trump is trying to deflect his administrations failures dealing the COVID virus by promoting the idea the economy can at least partially reopen.

Listening to the news, this is pure folly. We haven't even caught up to the virus yet. There is no protective equipment, mass testing or treatments.

In Canada, there are some rumblings in conservative media (as there is in the US) that the economy must open up, regardless of the reality of the situation.

Some Premiers appear to be taking up the same rhetoric, with the Premier of Quebec talking about a couple of weeks timeframe.

They should just stop. It isn't going to happen. We need to face the reality, prepare and deal with it.

Yes......it is going to cost enormous amounts of money. There will be untold damage to the economy. There is nothing we can do about that.

We will deal with that later. Right now.........we have to catch up to the virus first.


----------



## Longtimeago

People have short attention spans, get bored quickly and do not like disruption in their lives. I am more concerned about the public's actions in the coming weeks and months than I am about what any level of government might try to change.

Having to stay home and self-isolate for months still is something a lot of people are going to find extremely hard to do. LIfting those restrictions before we are near the BOTTOM of the curve is only likely to result in another outbreak.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Donald Trump is trying to deflect his administrations failures dealing the COVID virus by promoting the idea the economy can at least partially reopen.
> 
> Listening to the news, this is pure folly. We haven't even caught up to the virus yet. There is no protective equipment, mass testing or treatments.
> 
> In Canada, there are some rumblings in conservative media (as there is in the US) that the economy must open up, regardless of the reality of the situation.
> 
> Some Premiers appear to be taking up the same rhetoric, with the Premier of Quebec talking about a couple of weeks timeframe.
> 
> They should just stop. It isn't going to happen. We need to face the reality, prepare and deal with it.
> 
> Yes......it is going to cost enormous amounts of money. There will be untold damage to the economy. There is nothing we can do about that.
> 
> We will deal with that later. Right now.........we have to catch up to the virus first.


The longer we're locked down, and the economy is shut down, the more people will suffer and die because of these actions. The ONLY reason that these lockdowns make sense now is that the cost of doing them is lower than the cost of letting COVID19 run rampant.
If the cost of COVID19 was less than the cost of locking everything down, we should let it go.

There is a reason we don't lock down everything for the flu. It's a simple cost benefit analysis.
Just to be clear when i say Cost/Benefit, I'm not talking dollars, I'm talking lives and quality of life.

COVID19 is bad, worse than the flu, but it isn't Ebola, or even SARS. We have to act appropriately.
The cure can't be worse than the diesease.

If you think such discussions are inappropriate, I have an honest question. 
How many deaths due to lockdowns are acceptable? 

Given the hundreds of thousands of flu deaths every year, do you support a seasonal lockdown for the flu? 
Why not?


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> COVID19 is bad, worse than the flu, but it isn't Ebola


COVID-19 is actually much worse than Ebola and Sars (CoV 1). It spreads much more easily, and has asymptomatic/presymptomatic infectiousness. With both Ebola and SARS, people are only infectious when they are obviously ill. And Ebola just requires avoiding bodily contact. A real struggle in countries with underdeveloped health systems, but the west would be able to handle it no sweat.


----------



## sags

Important legislation is being stalled by the actions of the opposition parties.

Trudeau should pick the least offensive dance partner and boot the others out of the room.

At this point it looks like the NDP as the likely partner.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Important legislation is being stalled by the actions of the opposition parties.
> 
> Trudeau should pick the least offensive dance partner and boot the others out of the room.
> 
> At this point it looks like the NDP as the likely partner.


Or he's putting forward bad legislation, really in this crisis he should put something forward that everyone can agree on.


----------



## off.by.10

sags said:


> Some Premiers appear to be taking up the same rhetoric, with the Premier of Quebec talking about a couple of weeks timeframe.
> 
> They should just stop. It isn't going to happen. We need to face the reality, prepare and deal with it.
> 
> Yes......it is going to cost enormous amounts of money. There will be untold damage to the economy. There is nothing we can do about that.
> 
> We will deal with that later. Right now.........we have to catch up to the virus first.


Tell that to the women and children being beaten and stuck at home. Tell that to the people running out of food. To the volunteers still running the food banks getting exhausted, as they lost a good number of their older volunteers. Are you going to tell all of them "we'll deal with that later" ?

Facing the reality also means accepting that death is part of life. People get sick. People die. It happens all the time and there is nothing we can do about it.

We can grieve later. Right now, people have a life to live. Children don't stop growing. Adults don't stop aging.

That does not mean we have to be stupid about it and put thousands of people in a stadium next month. But we can't just expect everyone to hide in their homes for a year or more. It won't happen. And that's true before we even start to consider the economy. It's simple human nature.


----------



## MrMatt

off.by.10 said:


> Tell that to the women and children being beaten and stuck at home. Tell that to the people running out of food. To the volunteers still running the food banks getting exhausted, as they lost a good number of their older volunteers. Are you going to tell all of them "we'll deal with that later" ?


If it saves " just one life" we should do it.
But the lockdown will save thousands of lives, and lifting the lockdowns will save thousands of lives.
Which thousands of lives do we want to save?

We really need leadership to figure out how to move on to the next stage. Pretending that things are going to stay like this for a year or two while we work on a vaccine is simply not appropriate or acceptable. I'm concerned that is what Trudeau is thinking, and I don't trust his judgement.


----------



## ian

I strongly suspect that we are not depending on the PM's judgement. The Government has been very careful to follow the advice and recommendations of our health experts when making public statements. Very much in contrast to our neighbours in the south. The remarks by all politicians that I have seen so far are very measured.


----------



## MrMatt

ian said:


> I strongly suspect that we are not depending on the PM's judgement. The Government has been very careful to follow the advice and recommendations of our health experts when making public statements. Very much in contrast to our neighbours in the south. The remarks by all politicians that I have seen so far are very measured.


Yes, however they need to balance the advise of the infectious diesease experts against all the other considerations.

Quite simply, if you put food supply chain experts, an infectious diesease experts, a mental health professionals, and domestic abuse professionals in the same room, they might see a different balance in what needs to happen.

Right now there are locked down households where people are being beaten (it's a statistical certainty unfortunately). The lockdowns are going to give the abusers months of cover. That's a problem, and only one of the many problems that are being made worse by these lockdowns.

I know people hate to consider it, but the economic damage will get worse as time passes. That has to be a concern too.

There is no expert on all those areas, and definitely no consensus on how to move forward. That's the role of elected representatives, and we have to rely on their judgement. Fortunately Trudeau doesn't have a majority government, and he needs to convince others, outside his party, of the necessity of his actions.
2/3rds of the country voted against his leadership for a reason.


----------



## Longtimeago

off.by.10 said:


> Tell that to the women and children being beaten and stuck at home. Tell that to the people running out of food. To the volunteers still running the food banks getting exhausted, as they lost a good number of their older volunteers. Are you going to tell all of them "we'll deal with that later" ?
> 
> Facing the reality also means accepting that death is part of life. People get sick. People die. It happens all the time and there is nothing we can do about it.
> 
> We can grieve later. Right now, people have a life to live. Children don't stop growing. Adults don't stop aging.
> 
> That does not mean we have to be stupid about it and put thousands of people in a stadium next month. But we can't just expect everyone to hide in their homes for a year or more. It won't happen. And that's true before we even start to consider the economy. It's simple human nature.


Can we take it that you are not one of the people at high risk off.by.10? Not over 60 or with underlying medical conditions to worry about?

Well, here's the thing off.by.10, I am in the high risk category and here is how it is going to be. YOU are going to do what you are told like all children should and if you do not, you are going to be punished for your bad behaviour like most children are. We may even decide to imprison you. Defy a Policeman to his face rather than trying to say you won't go for it here in an anonymous forum and see what happens to you. Go on, go out and find a police officer and tell him you are not going to comply. See how that works for you.

Shelters are in fact being provided specifically for abused adults and children as part of the measures being taken right now. Phone numbers people can call if they are running out of food is another measure being stepped up. So your arguments have no real depth to them.

Yes people do die and yes we have to accept it but it does NOT mean 'there is nothing we can do about SOME potential deaths'. In this situation we can do something about it, STAY HOME until you are TOLD you can go out. I will accept YOUR death if I have to off.by.10 but you sure as hell aren't going to get your way about when people can go out and increase MY chances of dying.

IF we have to go to a real lockdown to keep people doing the right thing, then that is what will happen. You and anyone else who thinks we should lift restrictions before it is the right time, need to realize it is YOU and they who will cause a lockdown to happen, NOT those of us who are complying with the restrictions.


----------



## off.by.10

Longtimeago said:


> Well, here's the thing off.by.10, I am in the high risk category and here is how it is going to be. YOU are going to do what you are told like all children should and if you do not, you are going to be punished for your bad behaviour like most children are. We may even decide to imprison you. Defy a Policeman to his face rather than trying to say you won't go for it here in an anonymous forum and see what happens to you. Go on, go out and find a police officer and tell him you are not going to comply. See how that works for you.


How do you make up that ridiculous crap? The police can only enforce what the population generally agrees with. If 20% of the population says "get lost, we're going out and having fun", what do you think they can do about it? Start shooting people? You're an idiot if you think you're going to "tell" people what to do that way for long. Have you never seen protests that get out of hand when the police "tell" people to stop behaving like children?

Here's what will actually happen: the politicians will put measures into place according to what the majority of people want. If you're not happy about it, well, that's too bad. You don't get more say than I do in it. You can spend all day complaining about it on the internet, of course. But eventually, you'll find that nobody's listening anymore.



Longtimeago said:


> Shelters are in fact being provided specifically for abused adults and children as part of the measures being taken right now. Phone numbers people can call if they are running out of food is another measure being stepped up. So your arguments have no real depth to them.


How naive can you be? Especially old and naive? Just the other day on the news they were talking about women calling those lines in the middle of the night, wispering for fear of being heard. It has become harder for them to reach the resources. It does not matter how many resources you put into place if they are too afraid to get to them in the first place.

The same goes for children. The reports are down. Like way, way down. It's usually the schools, daycare, extended family, etc which report child abuse. Now none of that can happen. The problems did not magically go away. Probably the opposite, in fact.

Those are real, immediate problems, even before we start considering economic consequences. The longer this goes on, the more problems there will be.


----------



## agent99

I read on CBC that they have found that those who have had Covid-19 can be re-infected. That makes things a lot worse.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066


----------



## sags

That would change the game.


----------



## cainvest

agent99 said:


> I read on CBC that they have found that those who have had Covid-19 can be re-infected. That makes things a lot worse.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066


That's not exactly what the article says, even the article's title doesn't say that.


----------



## agent99

Not sure why you would argue about that. Article Title is very clear:
*South Korea says recovered COVID-19 patients re-testing positive

Whether they relapsed or were re-infected doesn't matter. Tests were not enough to ensure recovered people were safe.*


----------



## cainvest

agent99 said:


> Not sure why you would argue about that. Article Title is very clear:
> South Korea says recovered COVID-19 patients re-testing positive


Yes ... that's what the title says "re-testing positive" not "re-infected" followed by ..

_South Korean officials on Friday reported that 91 patients thought cleared of the new coronavirus had tested positive again.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing that the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being re-infected._

So in other words, re-infected may not be the case here ... there are many factors to consider which are also mentioned later in the article.



agent99 said:


> Whether they relapsed or were re-infected doesn't matter. Tests were not enough to ensure recovered people were safe.


Relapsed vs re-infected is a huge difference but also note the following from the article,

_False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients' systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others. _

So while you may jump to the conclusion of _"I read on CBC that they have found that those who have had Covid-19 can be re-infected."_ the actual jury is still out.

BTW, using a large font does help make you statement correct.


----------



## MrMatt

off.by.10 said:


> How do you make up that ridiculous crap? The police can only enforce what the population generally agrees with. If 20% of the population says "get lost, we're going out and having fun", what do you think they can do about it? Start shooting people? You're an idiot if you think you're going to "tell" people what to do that way for long. Have you never seen protests that get out of hand when the police "tell" people to stop behaving like children?
> 
> Here's what will actually happen: the politicians will put measures into place according to what the majority of people want. If you're not happy about it, well, that's too bad. You don't get more say than I do in it. You can spend all day complaining about it on the internet, of course. But eventually, you'll find that nobody's listening anymore.
> 
> 
> How naive can you be? Especially old and naive? Just the other day on the news they were talking about women calling those lines in the middle of the night, wispering for fear of being heard. It has become harder for them to reach the resources. It does not matter how many resources you put into place if they are too afraid to get to them in the first place.
> 
> The same goes for children. The reports are down. Like way, way down. It's usually the schools, daycare, extended family, etc which report child abuse. Now none of that can happen. The problems did not magically go away. Probably the opposite, in fact.
> 
> Those are real, immediate problems, even before we start considering economic consequences. The longer this goes on, the more problems there will be.


The longer these measures go on, the more people will be hurt by them.
It's a balance, and we rely on the judgement of the political leadership to manage these balances. 

If they get too far from what people are willing to accept, we have a problem.

People asked Doug Ford about making the measures and enforcing, he basically said that we don't have enough law enforcement capacity, we have to trust that people will do the right thing.

The government needs to convince people to go along with their ideas.


----------



## agent99

cainvest said:


> Yes ... that's what the title says "re-testing positive" not "re-infected" followed by ..
> 
> BTW, using a large font does help make you statement correct.


Most people here have reasonable reading skills - I posted a link to the entire article so they could read it for themselves.
The large print is an indication of what I thought of your response, Sorry if it offended you


----------



## sags

Some people don't seem to understand we are on the precipice of a massive outbreak of the virus.

The only weapon we have to combat the virus is to follow and extend the self isolation policies for as long as it takes to discover a treatment.

These are the numbers. Think about what providing the virus with millions of targets would look like.

Dec 10 = estimated 3 cases.
Jan 10 = 41 cases reported.
Feb 10 = 44,800 cases.
Mar 10 = 125,000 cases
Apr 10 = 1,680,000 cases
May 10 = ?


----------



## sags

Risking millions of people to infection isn't going to provide a solution for domestic violence.

Government support benefits that ease the financial burdens on families won't entirely either, but they would certainly help relieve the pressure.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Risking millions of people to infection isn't going to provide a solution for domestic violence.
> 
> Government support benefits that ease the financial burdens on families won't entirely either, but they would certainly help relieve the pressure.


With COVID19, we have to determine under what conditions it is better to relax the distancing restrictions a bit.

The point is with the domestic abuse point, we have strong evidence that this is likely increasing, and aided by the isolation measures we have in place. Isolation is likely facilitating increased domestic abuse.

Should the government be implementing policies that help abusers? 
In this case they've decided yes, they will facilitate abuse, because they're hoping to prevent even worse things from happening.
That is absolutely a judgement call.

We need to rely on the judgement of our political leaders, to balance the various costs and benefits. 
The infectious disease expert isn't the domestic abuse expert, or the suicide expert and so on.

These decisions ultimate lie with the government.


----------



## cainvest

agent99 said:


> Most people here have reasonable reading skills - I posted a link to the entire article so they could read it for themselves.
> The large print is an indication of what I thought of your response, Sorry if it offended you


Sorry if you mistook my response to your post, I just like to see accurate titles to the information available. It might seem like the same thing (re-testing positive vs re-infected) to you, I'm not sure but am glad you posted a link to the article to so people can follow up on it.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Some people don't seem to understand we are on the precipice of a massive outbreak of the virus.
> 
> The only weapon we have to combat the virus is to follow and extend the self isolation policies for as long as it takes to discover a treatment.
> 
> These are the numbers. Think about what providing the virus with millions of targets would look like.
> 
> Dec 10 = estimated 3 cases.
> Jan 10 = 41 cases reported.
> Feb 10 = 44,800 cases.
> Mar 10 = 125,000 cases
> Apr 10 = 1,680,000 cases
> May 10 = ?


What's your point? Geometric progression gets big fast?

The real question is when and how do we get back to normal. 
Lets say we don't have a vaccine (because we don't)
Lets say we flatten out to a steady state of 10k new cases a day, then it will take several years before it gets the whole country. Should we stay locked down for several years? 

Is it worth it?


----------



## Longtimeago

off.by.10 said:


> How do you make up that ridiculous crap? The police can only enforce what the population generally agrees with. If 20% of the population says "get lost, we're going out and having fun", what do you think they can do about it? Start shooting people? You're an idiot if you think you're going to "tell" people what to do that way for long. Have you never seen protests that get out of hand when the police "tell" people to stop behaving like children?
> 
> Here's what will actually happen: the politicians will put measures into place according to what the majority of people want. If you're not happy about it, well, that's too bad. You don't get more say than I do in it. You can spend all day complaining about it on the internet, of course. But eventually, you'll find that nobody's listening anymore.
> 
> 
> How naive can you be? Especially old and naive? Just the other day on the news they were talking about women calling those lines in the middle of the night, wispering for fear of being heard. It has become harder for them to reach the resources. It does not matter how many resources you put into place if they are too afraid to get to them in the first place.
> 
> The same goes for children. The reports are down. Like way, way down. It's usually the schools, daycare, extended family, etc which report child abuse. Now none of that can happen. The problems did not magically go away. Probably the opposite, in fact.
> 
> Those are real, immediate problems, even before we start considering economic consequences. The longer this goes on, the more problems there will be.


LOL, dream on off.by.10. The majority do not make the rules, only the politicians elected by the majority of the those who VOTED make the rules. The Police will enforce the rules and in fact I just heard on the news this morning that the Police in major cities are saying they have given enough warnings attempting to educate the public and they are now going to start getting much tougher and issue fines, not warnings, a whole lot more.

When people are getting $750-$1000 fines for defying the order to stay out of a park etc. you will find the 20% you think are with you in your thinking will quickly decline to a whole lot smaller percentage. If for example, it was reported on Monday that the Toronto Police handed out 1000 fines of $750 each to people congregating on Toronto Beaches this weekend, you can be sure most others would think twice about going there next weekend. They don't have to ticket everyone, only enough to discourage everyone who was thinking of defying the restrictions. 








Coronavirus: Toronto holding physical distancing enforcement blitz over holiday weekend - Toronto | Globalnews.ca


Two-hundred bylaw officers will be taking part, along with 160 Toronto police members.




globalnews.ca





This will go on and penalties for those defying the restrictions will escalate until it ends. What you and those who think like you need to realize is that it is YOU who will prolong it and force escalating restrictions and penalties. In other words off.by.10, you will be shooting yourself in the foot by failing to comply until you are TOLD you can do otherwise.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> What's your point? Geometric progression gets big fast?
> 
> The real question is when and how do we get back to normal.
> Lets say we don't have a vaccine (because we don't)
> Lets say we flatten out to a steady state of 10k new cases a day, then it will take several years before it gets the whole country. Should we stay locked down for several years?
> 
> Is it worth it?


MrMatt, there will be no 'back to normal' for a long time. A 'new normal' is beginning and while some restrictions may be able to be eased as we get to the bottom of this first wave, it will not be the 'old normal' for a long time and yes that may mean a couple of years. It all depends on getting a vaccine or effective medication to treat the virus. Until then we will remain in the 'new normal' and only after we have a vaccine or effective medication will it be possible to think of going back to the 'old normal'. Personally, I don't think we will ever go back completely to the old normal. Some things will be changed forever as a result of this virus.

As for 'is it worth it', you can never tell if something is 'worth it' or not until you get to the end and can evaluate the results. All that really matters though is that we are set on a given course of action and unless we totally change that course of action which I do not see happening, then we will continue on that course REGARDLESS of whether in the end, we decide it WAS worth it or not. You cannot determine IS it worth it in the present, only WAS it worth it at the end of the course you follow.


----------



## off.by.10

Longtimeago said:


> This will go on and penalties for those defying the restrictions will escalate until it ends. What you and those who think like you need to realize is that it is YOU who will prolong it and force escalating restrictions and penalties. In other words off.by.10, you will be shooting yourself in the foot by failing to comply until you are TOLD you can do otherwise.


Nowhere did I say I would not be following the recommendations. You're making that stuff up to feed your anger and back up a hollow argument.

But my point remains: handing out fines and so on will only work as long as the population generally goes along with it. Once a large chunk starts grumbling, the rules will change, from the top.


----------



## Mukhang pera

The talk of fines is getting silly. More than 2 weeks ago BC announced $50k fines and jail for those disobeying public health orders, including gathering in parks (link provided below). That's at a time when the government is stepping in with programs to assist that 90% or so of the population who have not saved a dime in their lives and cannot pay rent or buy food one week out of work. So now there will have to be more government money to help pay the fines. And I cannot wait to see a group of 1,000 or so people rounded up at Stanley park, issued $50K fines and thrown in jail. I think some temporary hospital facilities have been set up, and now we'll be needing a lot more prison space (and it will have to adhere to the rule of 2 meters between prisoners at all times). And all those prisoners will want to exercise their s. 11(b) Charter right to a trial within a reasonable time, as recently defined by the Supreme Court of Canada in _R_. v. _Jordan, _2016 SCC 27_. _And that will be at a time when the BC courts are closed. Her Majesty's judges will have to start working from home. Criminal trials in their living rooms perhaps. 

I can see the idea of penalties becoming wholly unworkable in the face of very likely increasing civil disobedience. 

When I was a university student way back, I took (as did most) one or two "sociology" courses. I read the teachings of Émile Durkheim and the notion of "anomie". It then seemed rather remote and theoretical. After all these years, I have an idea I might now witness widespread anomie. Interesting times. 



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-state-of-emergency-orders-1.5510677


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt, there will be no 'back to normal' for a long time. A 'new normal' is beginning and while some restrictions may be able to be eased as we get to the bottom of this first wave, it will not be the 'old normal' for a long time and yes that may mean a couple of years. It all depends on getting a vaccine or effective medication to treat the virus. Until then we will remain in the 'new normal' and only after we have a vaccine or effective medication will it be possible to think of going back to the 'old normal'. Personally, I don't think we will ever go back completely to the old normal. Some things will be changed forever as a result of this virus.
> 
> As for 'is it worth it', you can never tell if something is 'worth it' or not until you get to the end and can evaluate the results. All that really matters though is that we are set on a given course of action and unless we totally change that course of action which I do not see happening, then we will continue on that course REGARDLESS of whether in the end, we decide it WAS worth it or not. You cannot determine IS it worth it in the present, only WAS it worth it at the end of the course you follow.


You can't, but the thing is I'd rather lose 30k people to Coronavirus, than 100k additional deaths brought on by quarantine measures. It's really that simple.
If it's 30k COVID vs 10k measures, you keep the measures in place. The thing is the damage for the measures increases over time. I think 2 years of these measures will be too damaging and likely not worth it. I want our leaders to have that discussion.

If we had a vaccine or an effective treatment, then the numbers clearly change. But even with a vaccine and effective treatment there will be COVID deaths. This doesn't look like SARS where it might die out on its own. We have to consider that we might not get a vaccine or treatment in the near term. 
If we never get a COVID19 vaccine, are you saying we'll keep all these measures in place forever? That's unreasonable.


We're getting a handle on COVID19, it's time to consider what measures are appropriate and worth the cost.
We should be continuously reevaluate the course we are on and take appropriate action.

Just to be VERY clear, I'm not saying we should cancel isolation measures now, I'm saying we need to discuss under what condition and how they can be relaxed in such a way as they don't cause more damage than the disease we're trying to prevent.

It almost seems like you think keeping a strict quarantine is worth any price, I disagree. I want a policy that, on balance, results in the least amount of harm.


I'm also very concerned that our politicians will use this as an excuse to implement widespread surveillance, and break our free elections. This isn't tinfoil hat conspiracy stuff.
1. They are talking about massive global surveillance.
2. They are talking about online elections, which can be free, or secure, but not both.
- Given the choice I prefer secure and not free. But I have EXTREMELY SERIOUS concerns with election freedom.


----------



## m3s

Domestic violence doesn't spread exponentially with a transmission rate of 3-5 per every infection

Loosening the social distancing to reduce domestic violence is completely asinine and oblivious imo

It's about time we talk about online elections and secure id. Decades overdue


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> It's about time we talk about online elections and secure id. Decades overdue


This deserves it's own thread


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> You can't, but the thing is I'd rather lose 30k people to Coronavirus, than 100k additional deaths brought on by quarantine measures. It's really that simple.
> If it's 30k COVID vs 10k measures, you keep the measures in place. The thing is the damage for the measures increases over time. I think 2 years of these measures will be too damaging and likely not worth it. I want our leaders to have that discussion.
> 
> If we had a vaccine or an effective treatment, then the numbers clearly change. But even with a vaccine and effective treatment there will be COVID deaths. This doesn't look like SARS where it might die out on its own. We have to consider that we might not get a vaccine or treatment in the near term.
> If we never get a COVID19 vaccine, are you saying we'll keep all these measures in place forever? That's unreasonable.
> 
> 
> We're getting a handle on COVID19, it's time to consider what measures are appropriate and worth the cost.
> We should be continuously reevaluate the course we are on and take appropriate action.
> 
> Just to be VERY clear, I'm not saying we should cancel isolation measures now, I'm saying we need to discuss under what condition and how they can be relaxed in such a way as they don't cause more damage than the disease we're trying to prevent.
> 
> It almost seems like you think keeping a strict quarantine is worth any price, I disagree. I want a policy that, on balance, results in the least amount of harm.
> 
> 
> I'm also very concerned that our politicians will use this as an excuse to implement widespread surveillance, and break our free elections. This isn't tinfoil hat conspiracy stuff.
> 1. They are talking about massive global surveillance.
> 2. They are talking about online elections, which can be free, or secure, but not both.
> - Given the choice I prefer secure and not free. But I have EXTREMELY SERIOUS concerns with election freedom.


I don't really disagree with any of that MrMatt. The only issue is timing. People have short attention spans and become bored quickly. That's just the way it is and the pressure to start easing up will increase. My concern is that the pressure and the defying of the restrictions currently in place will escalate sooner than they should. 

Your 30k vs 100k makes sense if they were the actual numbers we knew they would result in. But we are not at that tipping point yet. We still have a chance to realize the alternative 30k vs 10k scenario IF we follow the restrictions that exist. 

By talking about 30k vs 100k all you do is give those looking for an excuse to defy the restrictions, an excuse they can use now.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> I don't really disagree with any of that MrMatt. The only issue is timing. People have short attention spans and become bored quickly. That's just the way it is and the pressure to start easing up will increase. My concern is that the pressure and the defying of the restrictions currently in place will escalate sooner than they should.
> 
> Your 30k vs 100k makes sense if they were the actual numbers we knew they would result in. But we are not at that tipping point yet. We still have a chance to realize the alternative 30k vs 10k scenario IF we follow the restrictions that exist.
> 
> By talking about 30k vs 100k all you do is give those looking for an excuse to defy the restrictions, an excuse they can use now.


Those numbers are completely made up. Theyr'e an example to try and illustrate my point. Which is that there are multiple factors, at some time & intensity the harm from COVID will be outweighed by the harm from the measures. At some point it becomes a certainty that the measures will cause more harm than COVID itself.


I think it is important that the restrictions are based on the best practices in the situation.
The best approach in the early stages of an unknown contagion is containment. But we're getting there and should be looking at next steps.

The thing is all the data I have seen so far has been lopsided, it ONLY shows the COVID19 deaths. I have seen no modelling of the projected impact of the measures.

I want the government to proceed in a reasoned scientifically based manner. I hope Trudeau is getting advice from various experts, but in the end we're relying on his judgement, and he has shown himself to have very poor judgement in the past. That's my concern.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Those numbers are completely made up. Theyr'e an example to try and illustrate my point. Which is that there are multiple factors, at some time & intensity the harm from COVID will be outweighed by the harm from the measures. At some point it becomes a certainty that the measures will cause more harm than COVID itself.
> 
> 
> I think it is important that the restrictions are based on the best practices in the situation.
> The best approach in the early stages of an unknown contagion is containment. But we're getting there and should be looking at next steps.
> 
> The thing is all the data I have seen so far has been lopsided, it ONLY shows the COVID19 deaths. I have seen no modelling of the projected impact of the measures.
> 
> I want the government to proceed in a reasoned scientifically based manner. I hope Trudeau is getting advice from various experts, but in the end we're relying on his judgement, and he has shown himself to have very poor judgement in the past. That's my concern.


Yes, I realize the numbers were made up, I just went along with your examples.

Whether you have any confidence in Trudeau or not, I do think we can look to others like our Dr. Tam and the WHO to be considering all the impacts each measure has. At least as best they can project them. I think we are proceeding based on science so far.

For example, the head of the WHO has just said once again, 'Now is not the time to be letting up on restrictions'.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Yes, I realize the numbers were made up, I just went along with your examples.
> 
> Whether you have any confidence in Trudeau or not, I do think we can look to others like our Dr. Tam and the WHO to be considering all the impacts each measure has. At least as best they can project them. I think we are proceeding based on science so far.
> 
> For example, the head of the WHO has just said once again, 'Now is not the time to be letting up on restrictions'.


1. Dr Tam is qualified to address the medical aspects of this crisis.
2. I do not think anyone can, or reasonably would, claim she is an expert or even qualified to offer analysis or opinion on other areas. 
3. There are other experts who can and should comment on the impacts of the actions being proposed.
4. I feel that it is the job of the government to weigh the various concerns.

Even assuming that this is a medical crisis, and the Cheif Medical officer should call the shots, that's fine.
I can accept that logic.
Medical crisis, do whatever the medical expert says.

But we're in a financial crisis. So we should do whatever the financial expert says.
We're nearly in a supply chain crisis. So we should do whatever the supply chain expert says.

Who gets the tiebreaker?
The financial crisis (at this time) is far more widespread than the medical crisis.
The supply chain is more of a concern to some, and arguably could be "most important".

Finally the government knew about COVID19 in January, they didn't do much until March, because they were following the advice of their social/political experts on getting compliance.

The medical experts advice is for everyone to get the flu shot, but that isn't mandatory, why? There is no medical reason to NOT make the flu shot mandatory. Clearly there are always multiple factors at play, it's up to our elected officials to balance those trade offs.

Also I'd like to point out that even in the medical community some experts disagree with each other, who decides which expert to listen to?
I know, lets listen to the expert appointed by Justin Trudeau! I hope we can trust his judgement!

Do you realize how circular this is?


----------



## sags

Canada should set aside $1 Trillion for aid support to give people confidence.

1) $450 billion should be spent by sending every Canadian over the age of 18 a benefit of $15,000 each.

2) $50 billion for PPE and research on a treatment.

3) $500 billion held in reserve.

No more adding pieces to the patchwork quilt of support programs that is leaving 30% of Canadians without support, and double payments for others.

It is taking too much time for the government to get legislation passed and money out the door, due to a minority government.

This virus isn't going away. The government needs to think "bigger".

The Liberals/NDP/Green could pass the legislation themselves and they should get it done forthwith.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Canada should set aside $1 Trillion for aid support to give people confidence.
> 
> 1) $450 billion should be spent by sending every Canadian over the age of 18 a benefit of $15,000 each.
> 
> 2) $50 billion for PPE and research on a treatment.
> 
> 3) $500 billion held in reserve.
> 
> No more adding pieces to the patchwork quilt of support programs that is leaving 30% of Canadians without support, and double payments for others.
> 
> It is taking too much time for the government to get legislation passed and money out the door, due to a minority government.
> 
> This virus isn't going away. The government needs to think "bigger".
> 
> The Liberals/NDP/Green could pass the legislation themselves and they should get it done forthwith.


Okay, how are we going to pay for it?

The workforce, before this disaster, was 15 million people.
That means each (pre depression) worker must cough up $67k in taxes.

That just isn't realistic.

Spread it over 5 years, that's still $1k/month in new taxes. Just for the federal spend.


----------



## like_to_retire

MrMatt said:


> Okay, how are we going to pay for it?



Matt, Matt, Matt - This is meaningless to socialists. Just print more money.

ltr


----------



## m3s

like_to_retire said:


> Matt, Matt, Matt - This is meaningless to socialists. Just print more money.


Trump is printing Trillions

Is he socialist now?


----------



## sags

We need a massive program that will grab Canadians attention and assure them they will be okay.

Millions of people are on the verge of bankruptcy or defaulting on their mortgage, auto loans or credit cards.

The choice for the government is to support people, or let people default on their debts and watch the financial system collapse.


----------



## sags

Don't blame the Liberals. All day long the Conservatives and NDP were pounding away for more money for this group and that group.

From lobster fishermen to the tourist industry to micro businesses to farmers and everyone in between.

I think future criticism of the government won't be on how much money they spent but who they didn't give money to.

When the rubber meets the road, ideology gets thrown right out the window.


----------



## like_to_retire

m3s said:


> Trump is printing Trillions
> 
> Is he socialist now?



I don't think so. I think he has full respect for the free market as evidenced by how well the US economy has done since he took power, and he has done his best to promote the capitalist system that's required to move the USA to a full recovery.

ltr


----------



## m3s

like_to_retire said:


> I don't think so. I think he has full respect for the free market


Free market means letting the market decide

Printing money is the exact opposite..


----------



## off.by.10

like_to_retire said:


> Matt, Matt, Matt - This is meaningless to socialists. Just print more money.
> 
> ltr


No no no, true socialists just take the money. Other people's money. It's right there, begging to be taken and put to better use.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> We need a massive program that will grab Canadians attention and assure them they will be okay.
> 
> Millions of people are on the verge of bankruptcy or defaulting on their mortgage, auto loans or credit cards.
> 
> The choice for the government is to support people, or let people default on their debts and watch the financial system collapse.


Absolutely, but they should do it as fairly as possible.

It is not fair that some people get big cash CERB handouts, while others don't. Simply because of the arbitrary rules they've chosen.
Also some people get free daycare, while others can't get care at all, and may have to sacrifice their jobs.


I do think the government has to go and massively bail out the people and corporations of this country, they massively overleveraged themselves, we're what 3 weeks in? Very few people had savings, and of course they're the ones who are going to get it inflated away.

Not only are people not willing to take any responsibility, now they're wanting interest free mortgages, because.. well I guess letting them defer payments wasn't generous enough.

The reality is years of mismanagement, and a lack of financial literacy is all hitting at once. 

Yes the government has to massively bail everyone out, but seizing all of my income isn't the right way to do it.
I think the only way out is to print money, and hopefully keep inflation under control.

Unfortunately, the poor and middle class are going to bear the brunt of this... again. 


Can we at least agree, that maybe the government should cut back on wasteful spending at some point?


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> The reality is years of mismanagement, and a lack of financial literacy is all hitting at once.


US news just showed thousands of vehicles lined up 3 lanes wide for food banks

Mind you I see a lot of recent model SUVs probably financed with negative equity


----------



## sags

People, small business, corporations, non profits, landlords, provinces, municipalities, are all there with their hand out.

It appears there is enough blame for financial irresponsibility to spread widely around.

It is the economic model that was built on spending habits and debt.

Bail out the people who borrowed the money or the people who gave it to them ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> People, small business, corporations, non profits, landlords, provinces, municipalities, are all there with their hand out.
> 
> It appears there is enough blame for financial irresponsibility to spread widely around.
> 
> It is the economic model that was built on spending habits and debt.
> 
> Bail out the people who borrowed the money or the people who gave it to them ?


If you're going to give a big bucket of cash to everyone, except a small sliver, you might as well give it to everyone, since we're all going to have to pay and clean up this disaster.


----------



## sags

And the government adds more patchwork to the quilt. A program that pays 75% of wages and what do some companies do ?

Cut their employee's pay to 75% so the government pays the whole wages. They are going to have to do something about that now.

And the NDP demanded changes for seasonal workers, and part time workers. We don't know what that program will be.

And there are groups demanding the Ontario government eliminate "deeming" by WSIB and restore full benefits to injured workers, because they don't qualify for CERB.

And the NDP also wants to increase the OAS because seniors are being hit hard on the investment incomes.

And, and, and........like I said all along, this is a crazy way to do business. Just send everybody a benefit and claw it back if they want.

The worst is that credit card companies, payday loan companies, and alternative lenders.......all of whom gouge customers with high interest rates are going to be taking some of that CERB money as people make the payments. The taxpayer is paying the high interest charges. That is simply ridiculous.

All interest should be frozen at the benchmark until further notice. Why are we paying payday loan companies 400% interest ?

Does anyone really care if payday loan companies or alternative lenders (49.9% interest rates for auto loans) go broke ?

I certainly don't. Credit card companies and bank loans are different. We need them. We don't need those other loan sharks.

It would be a darn good time to flush them right out of the system.


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> US news just showed thousands of vehicles lined up 3 lanes wide for food banks
> 
> Mind you I see a lot of recent model SUVs probably financed with negative equity


That's a funny thing about all these shiny new cars we see everywhere (same in Canada). It seems like everyone has a new car. All borrowed money; nobody can afford these things.

By the way, I learned that my ex girlfriend's friend died of COVID-19. This is a male in his 30s, Washington state. A young man, but she told me he wasn't in great health.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> And the government adds more patchwork to the quilt. A program that pays 75% of wages and what do some companies do ?
> 
> Cut their employee's pay to 75% so the government pays the whole wages. They are going to have to do something about that now.
> 
> And the NDP demanded changes for seasonal workers, and part time workers. We don't know what that program will be.
> 
> And there are groups demanding the Ontario government eliminate "deeming" by WSIB and restore full benefits to injured workers, because they don't qualify for CERB.
> 
> And the NDP also wants to increase the OAS because seniors are being hit hard on the investment incomes.
> 
> And, and, and........like I said all along, this is a crazy way to do business. Just send everybody a benefit and claw it back if they want.
> 
> The worst is that credit card companies, payday loan companies, and alternative lenders.......all of whom gouge customers with high interest rates are going to be taking some of that CERB money as people make the payments. The taxpayer is paying the high interest charges. That is simply ridiculous.
> 
> All interest should be frozen at the benchmark until further notice. Why are we paying payday loan companies 400% interest ?
> 
> Does anyone really care if payday loan companies or alternative lenders (49.9% interest rates for auto loans) go broke ?
> 
> I certainly don't. Credit card companies and bank loans are different. We need them. We don't need those other loan sharks.
> 
> It would be a darn good time to flush them right out of the system.


Lets say you have a restaurant that's be closed, you can either lay everyone off, which means you lose the relationship with your staff and they get 55% of their pay.
Or you use CERB funding, keep them as staff with 0 hours, and they get 75% of their paycheck.
THAT IS THE STATED INTENT OF THIS PROGRAM!!!!

What do you expect them to do?

400% interest is criminal. It's not happening in legitimate institution.s
Lots of these high credit risk people will default, I expect the payday loan companies will go broke. But there is a problem, the people who use these services will suddenly find themselves without access to any legal services. Who gets hurt the most?
I don't know why you'd go to a cash checking place when you can simply go to a bank.

I agree, we live in a heavily debt funded society. It's bad and makes our society less resilient.
Part of the problem is that nobody sees it as a problem.
They post how a massive portion of the population is a paycheck from insolvency, and nobody does anything.
The government promised balanced budgets, then even in economic good times, started piling debt on at record rates and insisted massive debt "wasn't a problem".

The real problem is that people feel like there are no consequences for their poor financial decisions. Lots of people want financial literacy. But there are advocacy groups who are actively fighting this.
I actually think that financial/economic ignorance is how lefties get the support for their policies.

All that being said, I basically disagree with your entire economic, financial, and ethical model.

But in this case I think they should just provide a uniform CERB to pretty much everyone, and claw it back later. << I proposed this weeks ago.
We need people who can work, to opt out where possible. This is what UBI does, and it's why we should get an emergency UBI in place during this crisis. Yes UBI will shut down and damage the economy, but this is what we want right now to make the isolation measures effective.

We have too many people falling through the cracks at all levels. Also all this administration and delay is expensive and needlessly hurting people. But the politicians don't really care, Trudeau gets to trumpet a new massive plan to help people every day.

For him the optics of "saving" a new group every day, are far more important than simply helping every citizen as quickly and efficiently as possible.


----------



## sags

The economy could reopen if there was effective PPE that repelled the virus.

Developing such products would not only help now, but give us a defense against future viral outbreaks.

We don't know what is coming in the future, but we can't wait around for the next virus to find out.

There are other problems coming that we get all the time. Forest fires, flooding, hurricanes, blizzards aren't going to stop because we have the COVID.

Right now, we can barely supply even basic masks. We can do much better on PPE than that.

If NASA can make a blanket out of tinfoil, surely we can develop something to protect us from viruses.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The economy could reopen if there was effective PPE that repelled the virus.
> 
> Developing such products would not only help now, but give us a defense against future viral outbreaks.
> 
> We don't know what is coming in the future, but we can't wait around for the next virus to find out.
> 
> There are other problems coming that we get all the time. Forest fires, flooding, hurricanes, blizzards aren't going to stop because we have the COVID.
> 
> Right now, we can barely supply even basic masks. We can do much better on PPE than that.
> 
> If NASA can make a blanket out of tinfoil, surely we can develop something to protect us from viruses.


Most people don't use PPE properly. I know people thought it was ridiculous when "experts" said most people don't know how to wear a mask.
But I see lots of people with their noses out.
I also see people remove and adjust the mask by touching the front of the mask. 
But masks are easy, the use of gloves is even worse.

Ontario already has 1 auto manufacturer that has switched to masks and more are on the way. 
We're ramping up production fast.

Tinfoil blanket? Do you mean the plastic "space blankets", which are actually plastic, not tinfoil.


The government needs to determine their open up plans, we have a horrible experiment with the US next door, and we will get good data on what works, what doesn't, and the effectiveness of treatments. 
But I do agree, we need to unlock as much of the economy as we can, as quickly as we can. So far all I'm hearing from Trudeau is that he wants to wait for a vaccine, that isn't a plan I'm okay with.
Also i'm seriously concerned that they are going to rush these vaccines and make a mistake.


----------



## :) lonewolf

meant to say ID 2020 ( new sight doesn't seam to let me to correct mistakes )


----------



## Longtimeago

:) lonewolf said:


> meant to say ID 2020 ( new sight doesn't seam to let me to correct mistakes )


Yeah, it's hard having to learn how to use an edit function. I mean, do they think everyone is smart enough to be able to figure that out? Especially on a new 'sight'. I wonder why this 'site' allows everyone else to edit but doesn't let you do so? Is it a government conspiracy do you think lonewolf to keep you from spreading the 'real truth' about everything?


----------



## Longtimeago

If what people want is an end to all of this, there is an answer. Are you ready for it? STAY HOME. That is how we will get to the end in the shortest possible time.


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> And the government adds more patchwork to the quilt. A program that pays 75% of wages and what do some
> 
> All interest should be frozen at the benchmark until further notice. Why are we paying payday loan companies 400% interest ?
> 
> Does anyone really care if payday loan companies or alternative lenders (49.9% interest rates for auto loans) go broke ?
> 
> I certainly don't. Credit card companies and bank loans are different. We need them. We don't need those other loan sharks.
> 
> It would be a darn good time to flush them right out of the system.


In this era post so many class action lawsuits against payday loan companies (I can supply many judgment cites, if you like), are there today any charging 400%? I am surprised to hear that any ever went that high. Can you give some examples?

And yes, the banks and other credit card issuers are such good sports in keeping their interest rates to a bargain basement 20% or so. Cheap interest for sure. And I got an email from RBC the other day about their "*RBC Client Relief Program" *which reads, in part:

*Second*, we know many of our clients are facing additional pressure from lost employment, a major disruption in their business or unique family circumstances. Our employees are here to connect with you directly to create a personal plan to relieve the pressure you are facing. This may include reducing credit card interest charges by 50% for clients receiving credit card minimum payment deferrals. If you are experiencing more extreme financial hardship, please *book a call with an advisor* through our online appointment booking service.

So, it would seem, that if one goes cap in hand and utters the magic words, one might be granted (albeit not assured) a credit card interest rate reduction of 50%, which would drop it to a very low 10% or thereabouts! On the strength of that, I am heading out today to charge up a storm. I cannot believe a bank being so charitable as to charge only 10% interest. They'll go broke! 

Anyway, seriously, I feel little sympathy for those who sign up for payday loans or carry credit card balances. They are the ones who need CERD, or whatever it's called. I wonder how many years the government can continue to pay that. Because unless we just let nature take its course and don't try to slow down (read, let it take years) the virus, we'll be on lockdown for years and, supposedly, the government will have to extend bailouts for a very long time. To do that, they will have to take it from those who saved for a rainy day.


----------



## Plugging Along

Longtimeago said:


> If what people want is an end to all of this, there is an answer. Are you ready for it? STAY HOME. That is how we will get to the end in the shortest possible time.


Stay home will NOT end of all of this. It will flatten the curve enough that the medical system can handle the cases which is the goal. This will allow time for the mass population to either develop a natural immunity which takes about 70% of the population or time for a vaccination. Until then staying home does end this. In fact, staying lengthens the time this pandemic occurs. Staying home WILL save many lives though. 

If the answer was to end this in the shortest time possible, it would be to peak the curve as fast as possible. Everyone should go out in huge groups, they could even have COVID parties like they did with the measles. Governments could even FORCE people to go out an get infected to see who has the strongest genes. [sarcasm] However, this was result in massive amount of deaths, and it would be a survival of the fittest. It would the shortest amount of time with a disregard for life. 

On the alternative side, if EVERY single person in the world stayed at home for a whole 6 weeks that would be the shortest too. That would mean NO essential service could go out, police, fire, hospitals, groceries, pharmacies, delivery, water services. This would allow time for those infected to either recover or die. I read some where that 6 weeks was how long some took, but that was with ICU, so it could be shorter, as they would just die. People in hospitals, care facilities, seniors homes the staff would just have to live there until it was all over, or if they don't want to, they could stay at home and have the patients fend for themselves. People who need supports such as seniors and the vulnerable could be stocked ahead of time, and let's hope every thing works. So staying at home for EVERYONE could also work, I think it would save more lives then everyone going out, and there is more control over the effects on lives. People wouldn't die from the virus, but most likely the ones in the hospitals who needed care or vulnerable. It would take more preparation to allow everyone to stockpile for 6 weeks if they can.

If the goal is to do this soon as possible, then the above alternatives are the right answer. If the goal is to save as many lives as possible it is to stay at home when possible. That option bring challenges too because it is the LONGEST option. It will save the most lives, but then for some it will mean between lives and livelyhoods and quality of life. My point was to illustrate that making black and white statements are not that simple. There is a constant balance between many considerations.


----------



## Longtimeago

Plugging Along said:


> Stay home will NOT end of all of this. It will flatten the curve enough that the medical system can handle the cases which is the goal. This will allow time for the mass population to either develop a natural immunity which takes about 70% of the population or time for a vaccination. Until then staying home does end this. In fact, staying lengthens the time this pandemic occurs. Staying home WILL save many lives though.
> 
> If the answer was to end this in the shortest time possible, it would be to peak the curve as fast as possible. Everyone should go out in huge groups, they could even have COVID parties like they did with the measles. Governments could even FORCE people to go out an get infected to see who has the strongest genes. [sarcasm] However, this was result in massive amount of deaths, and it would be a survival of the fittest. It would the shortest amount of time with a disregard for life.
> 
> On the alternative side, if EVERY single person in the world stayed at home for a whole 6 weeks that would be the shortest too. That would mean NO essential service could go out, police, fire, hospitals, groceries, pharmacies, delivery, water services. This would allow time for those infected to either recover or die. I read some where that 6 weeks was how long some took, but that was with ICU, so it could be shorter, as they would just die. People in hospitals, care facilities, seniors homes the staff would just have to live there until it was all over, or if they don't want to, they could stay at home and have the patients fend for themselves. People who need supports such as seniors and the vulnerable could be stocked ahead of time, and let's hope every thing works. So staying at home for EVERYONE could also work, I think it would save more lives then everyone going out, and there is more control over the effects on lives. People wouldn't die from the virus, but most likely the ones in the hospitals who needed care or vulnerable. It would take more preparation to allow everyone to stockpile for 6 weeks if they can.
> 
> If the goal is to do this soon as possible, then the above alternatives are the right answer. If the goal is to save as many lives as possible it is to stay at home when possible. That option bring challenges too because it is the LONGEST option. It will save the most lives, but then for some it will mean between lives and livelyhoods and quality of life. My point was to illustrate that making black and white statements are not that simple. There is a constant balance between many considerations.


Yes all true Plugging Along. However staying at home is the most PRACTICAL answer that both reduces deaths and at the same time does not OVERLY extend the time that it will take to reach the bottom of this first wave. Theory is one thing, practicality is another. 

We can't just all go out and let it run its course quickly with the resulting huge number of deaths and we can't have everyone stay home for 6 weeks. In theory they work, in real life they are not the answer. The only practical answer is to first stay home and second keep physical distancing. That is what will get us to the end of the first wave in the fastest time PRACTICAL.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> But in this case I think they should just provide a uniform CERB to pretty much everyone, and claw it back later.


Apparently this is exactly what is happening with CERB. Everyone who applies gets it and it will be clawed back at tax time if it is determined that you weren't eligible.


----------



## sags

MP....the payday loans charge by the 'pay period", so if the rate is $15 per $100 as it is in Ontario, and it is repayable in 1 week or 2 weeks on payday.......that is easily 400% plus interest rate.

In fact, it is so high the government waived the usury rules of 49.9% to permit it. The alternative lenders are kinder..........49.9% interest.

I also don't care if people want to borrow from payday loans.

I just don't like the idea that our taxpayer CERB dollars can end up at the payday loan companies in exorbitant interest charges.

Actually my estimated 400% may be too low. Ontario used to allow $21 interest per $100 borrowed for 2 weeks.

*Ontario*_ enacted the *Payday Loans* Act, 2008 to limit the fees charged on *loans* in *Ontario* to $21 per $100 borrowed for a period of two weeks. *The effective annual interest rate is 14,299%*((1.21^(365/14)-1)100), while the equivalent annual simple *interest* rate is 548% ((0.21(365/14))*100). _


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Apparently this is exactly what is happening with CERB. Everyone who applies gets it and it will be clawed back at tax time if it is determined that you weren't eligible.


So the grocery store worker who's annual income is $40k gets no CERB, but someone else who makes $100k will get CERB money too? 
That's my point, they should give it back for liquidity and need now, and tax it back.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> MP....the payday loans charge by the 'pay period", so if the rate is $15 per $100 as it is in Ontario, and it is repayable in 1 week or 2 weeks on payday.......that is easily 400% plus interest rate.
> 
> In fact, it is so high the government waived the usury rules of 49.9% to permit it. The alternative lenders are kinder..........49.9% interest.
> 
> I also don't care if people want to borrow from payday loans.
> 
> I just don't like the idea that our taxpayer CERB dollars can end up at the payday loan companies in exorbitant interest charges.


The thing is they carved out that $15/$100 administrative loophole to make sure this service was still available.
Clearly the users and the "experts" in government think this is valuable service.


----------



## Longtimeago

Here is something to think about in regard to physical distancing. How many people are still going into their local convenience store to buy lottery tickets?

That is a truly non-essential thing to be doing and yet I am willing to bet there are huge numbers of people still doing it. If you are like me, you have probably seen people who go in and buy a whole fistful of different lottery tickets and who obviously do so frequently. How likely is it that they have stopped doing so?

Each purchase is an interaction between people.


----------



## sags

The variety store I go to has a plastic shield up in front of the cashier. People distance themselves from each other. Some wait outside if the store is busy.

Oddly enough, they sometimes have supplies you can't get anywhere else. Someone at my wife's work told her to go a variety store to buy some surgical masks.

She bought a pack of 50 for $70. They aren't N95 masks, but better than nothing, I suppose. Makes people feel safer I think.

Speaking of masks, it is revealed that Canada has secured exclusive production of PPE in China, and have already set up a warehouse next to the airport and hired airplanes to bring the supplies to Canada. Air Canada has taken all the seats out of a couple 737's to accommodate more freight. A couple of flights have already landed in Hamilton, Ontario with millions of masks and gloves. They are expecting multiple flights a day as production ramps up.

Great job by the Trudeau government.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> The variety store I go to has a plastic shield up in front of the cashier. People distance themselves from each other. Some wait outside if the store is busy.
> 
> Oddly enough, they sometimes have supplies you can't get anywhere else. Someone at my wife's work told her to go a variety store to buy some surgical masks.
> 
> She bought a pack of 50 for $70. They aren't N95 masks, but better than nothing, I suppose. Makes people feel safer I think.
> 
> Speaking of masks, it is revealed that Canada has secured exclusive production of PPE in China, and have already set up a warehouse next to the airport and hired airplanes to bring the supplies to Canada. Air Canada has taken all the seats out of a couple 737's to accommodate more freight. A couple of flights have already landed in Hamilton, Ontario with millions of masks and gloves. They are expecting multiple flights a day as production ramps up.
> 
> Great job by the Trudeau government.


The point I was making sags is that there is no NEED to go to a variety store to buy lotttery tickets. They could have stayed at home. Every interaction between two people is a risk. It may be a low risk but it is NOT risk free.

I think the government should tell the lottery corporations to suspend all lotteries for the present. I also think the lottery corporations should have done so themselves already. I'm sure they realize they are adding to interactions between people. But lottery tickets bring in a whole lot of money.


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> MP....the payday loans charge by the 'pay period", so if the rate is $15 per $100 as it is in Ontario, and it is repayable in 1 week or 2 weeks on payday.......that is easily 400% plus interest rate.
> In fact, it is so high the government waived the usury rules of 49.9% to permit it. The alternative lenders are kinder..........49.9% interest.
> …
> Ontario enacted the Payday Loans Act, 2008 to limit the fees charged on loans in Ontario to $21 per $100 borrowed for a period of two weeks. The effective annual interest rate is 14,299%((1.21^(365/14)-1)100), while the equivalent annual simple interest rate is 548% ((0.21(365/14))*100).





MrMatt said:


> The thing is they carved out that $15/$100 administrative loophole to make sure this service was still available.
> Clearly the users and the "experts" in government think this is valuable service.


Interesting, gentlemen.

I now see that Ontario is very pro rob from the poor (and not-so-bright) and give to the rich. Here, in the wild west, the class actions to which I have referred have constrained payday lenders to keeping interest under the “criminal rate” of 60% prescribed by the Criminal Code.

Section 347(1)(b) of the Code provides that everyone who “receives a payment or a partial payment of interest at a criminal rate” is guilty of an offence.

“Interest” and “criminal rate” are defined in s. 347(2):

“I_nterest” means the aggregate of all charges and expenses, whether in the form of a fee, fine, penalty, commission or other similar charge or expense or in any other form, paid or payable for the advancing of credit under an agreement or arrangement. . .

“[C]riminal rate” means an effective annual rate of interest calculated in accordance with generally accepted actuarial practices and principals that exceeds sixty percent on the credit advanced under an agreement or arrangement. . .

Section 347(1)(a) provides that everyone who “enters into an agreement or arrangement to receive interest at a criminal rate” is guilty of an offence._

One of a number of BC cases is _Tracy_ v. _Instaloans Financial Solution Centres (B.C.) Ltd._, 2008, BCSC 669. It explains the scheme, similar to that described by sags. A partial summary reads thus:

_The plaintiffs sued I. Ltd., asserting that fees charged for loans made through I. Ltd. outlets amounted to "interest" within s. 347 of the Criminal Code, exceeding the criminal rate. They further alleged that the loan transactions breached the Trade Practice Act and Business Practices and Consumer Protection Act. Between December 1998 and April 2005 [the "Class Period"] I. Ltd. provided short term loans, of up to 30 days, for small amounts, of up to $500, at various locations throughout British Columbia. The term of the payday loan was set in relation to the borrower’s next scheduled pay day. The loans were advance under standard form loan agreements on terms that required the borrower to pay charges calculated at 25 percent of the principal amount of the payday loan [the "finance charge"]. Before February 2003, I. Ltd.’s standard form loan agreement provided that the total of all charges would be $25 per $100 loan. In 2003, the standard form was amended to provide for non-interest finance charges of $23 per $100 and interest charges of $2 per $100. The loan agreement provided that interest charges would be one percent per week, but for the purpose of calculating interest charges, the loan was always treated as a two-week loan, regardless of its actual term. As a result, the total of interest and non-interest finance charges was always calculated to equal 25 percent of the amount borrowed. Before November 1, 2004, the borrower could attend at an I. Ltd. location before the due date and renew the loan by paying the fees and interest outstanding. In practice, I. Ltd. divided its business into two groups: one group operated the storefront operations and the other provided the staff and management. On April 15, 2003, the plaintiff T. borrowed $50 from I. Ltd. She provided a cheque post-dated to April 28, 2003 for $62.50. She repaid the loan on April 28, 2003, including the $12.50 finance charge. The opinion of the plaintiff’s actuarial expert was that the effective annual rate of interest was 52,494 percent. The plaintiff P. borrowed and repaid approximately 40 payday loans from I. Ltd. In one case, she borrowed $408 and provided I. Ltd. with a direct withdrawal authorization form, permitting I. Ltd. to withdraw $510 from her account two weeks later. I. Ltd. was repaid on that date, including the finance charge of $102, resulting in an effective annual interest rate of 33,519 percent. The plaintiffs succeeded in having the action certified as a class action. They succeeded at trial and on appeal._

For full text (46 pp.) see:

_2008 BCSC 669 Tracy v. Instaloans Financial Solution Centres (B.C.) Ltd._

Apparently, Parliament has seen fit to allow Ontario to opt out of the criminal law sphere, as explained in this passage of the judgment in Tracy:

Section 347.1, which excludes from s. 347 those payday lenders who are licensed, in a province that regulates payday lenders by limiting the total cost of borrowing, could not avail the defendants. British Columbia was not a designated province, and none of the defendants was licensed in British Columbia under s. 347.1. In addition, s. 347.1 was proclaimed in 2007 and does not have retroactive effect.

I still have a bit of a hard time feeling sympathy for those who get taken in by these things. To say they are poor does not explain it. Quite the opposite. If they were poor and had any sense, they would immediately recognize that payday loans will ensure continued poverty. So, sadly, they must be poor and stupid. Many out there like that. They vote in elections. They decide who governs and how. Small wonder we are so screwed up.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> The point I was making sags is that there is no NEED to go to a variety store to buy lotttery tickets. They could have stayed at home. Every interaction between two people is a risk. It may be a low risk but it is NOT risk free.
> 
> I think the government should tell the lottery corporations to suspend all lotteries for the present. I also think the lottery corporations should have done so themselves already. I'm sure they realize they are adding to interactions between people. But lottery tickets bring in a whole lot of money.


The lotteries are a marvellous cash cow for governments, which are now pissing money away with both hands. So lotteries need to be encouraged, not "suspended". It can all be done online. No need to line up.


----------



## sags

Yes, the Ontario online gambling website customer service lines were experiencing significant delays due high volumes...........LOL.


----------



## Money172375

Is there any evidence on which is better? Blue surgical masks or homemade masks?


----------



## sags

I am thinking not really, but they are more "official" looking.

My wife's work finally got some surgical masks. They are limited to one per employee. She said one employee was wearing hers inside out.

My wife wears some paper towel in the mask to absorb the moisture. She is used to wearing masks from her nursing days, but it is driving the others batty.


----------



## sags

MP.........the oddity is that payday loan borrowers who default are automatically assigned a default interest of 25%.

So, I would suggest to people to default on the debt and pay a loan repayment schedule at the much lower rate of interest.

Apparently, the law in Ontario doesn't allow the payday loan companies to apply their "normal" rates on defaults.

If the people made an arrangement with the payday loan company to pay the debt in 2 equal payments.....they probably wouldn't even report it.

In fact, I don't know if payday loan companies are dues paying members of the credit bureaus anyways.

I suppose some would question the morality of defaulting on a debt, but it didn't prevent Donald Trump from becoming the most powerful man in the world.


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> I suppose some would question the morality of defaulting on a debt, but it didn't prevent Donald Trump from becoming the most powerful man in the world.


Not much morality involved in defaulting on a usurious debt, I would say. Almost a case that calls for application of the maxim _ex turpi causa non oritur actio_, a Latin phrase loosely translated as “no cause of action can arise from a base cause”.


----------



## MrMatt

Mukhang pera said:


> Not much morality involved in defaulting on a usurious debt, I would say. Almost a case that calls for application of the maxim _ex turpi causa non oritur actio_, a Latin phrase loosely translated as “no cause of action can arise from a base cause”.


Not much morality in breaking a contract freely entered into.

The thing is, when they accept the terms, they're okay, it's only later that they complain it's unfair.
If it was unfair, you shouldn't have accepted their money.


----------



## Mukhang pera

MrMatt said:


> Not much morality in breaking a contract freely entered into.
> 
> The thing is, when they accept the terms, they're okay, it's only later that they complain it's unfair.
> If it was unfair, you shouldn't have accepted their money.


Fair enough. It has been said that the world is made up of 2 kinds of people: the smart ones and the stupid ones, and the smart ones were just naturally intended to take advantage of the stupid ones. To a large extent, that's how things work.

Overall, I agree with the notion of sanctity of contracts. But in the payday loans arena, our courts have (with the exception of Ontario and perhaps others), made it clear that you can contract with your fingers crossed behind your back. As well, Parliament has exercised the criminal law power to prescribe north of 60 as a criminal rate. Why? Silly really. If one is stupid enough to agree to 60%, why should it be a crime to get that fool to agree to 160%, or 1,060%?


----------



## andrewf

Sounds like the wonder drug hydroxychloroquine might have some issues when it comes to treatment of COVID-19. Higher doses saw a significant number of cardiac events. The French study without a control group seems to be having some trouble being replicated, which might indicate some methodological issues.





__





The Latest Hydroxychloroquine Data, As of April 11


We have new data on hydroxychloroquine therapy to discuss. The numbers will not clear anything up. First off is an abstract from the Marseilles IHU group of Dr. Didier Raoult. It presents 1061 patients treated for at least 3 days with their hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination, with follow




blogs.sciencemag.org


----------



## MrMatt

Mukhang pera said:


> Fair enough. It has been said that the world is made up of 2 kinds of people: the smart ones and the stupid ones, and the smart ones were just naturally intended to take advantage of the stupid ones. To a large extent, that's how things work.
> 
> Overall, I agree with the notion of sanctity of contracts. But in the payday loans arena, our courts have (with the exception of Ontario and perhaps others), made it clear that you can contract with your fingers crossed behind your back. As well, Parliament has exercised the criminal law power to prescribe north of 60 as a criminal rate. Why? Silly really. If one is stupid enough to agree to 60%, why should it be a crime to get that fool to agree to 160%, or 1,060%?


Well as this drifts off topic, I think the issues is in a large part a lack of literacy.

Just like COVID-19. there is a significant failure to engage in the basic steps.
1. People were not financially prepared for even a small financial emergency. Far too many are financially destroyed within the first few weeks.
2. The government wasn't prepared for the financial, or health impacts.

We know that individuals suffer financial setbacks regularly, the wider economy has some sort of crisis every few years (major ones every 10 years).
We know there is a pandemic diesease of varying intensity every year, and larger ones every few years.

These are all known cycles, and here we are in pretty much a predicted and expected situation, and so few were prepared we're on the edge of a significant depression.


----------



## sags

Seriously,

Andrew Scheer brings his wife and 5 kids to Ottawa on a government jet so he can sit in Parliament on Saturday ?

They all squeeze onto a 9 passenger jet that includes Green Leader Elizabeth May, and a Liberal from BC ?

Sorry, but there is no excuse for that level of stupidity. Small wonder his aides refuse to answer questions.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/challenger-flight-may-scheer-qualtrough-1.5530542


----------



## MrMatt

No


sags said:


> Seriously,
> 
> Andrew Scheer brings his wife and 5 kids to Ottawa on a government jet so he can sit in Parliament on Saturday ?
> 
> They all squeeze onto a 9 passenger jet that includes Green Leader Elizabeth May, and a Liberal from BC ?
> 
> Sorry, but there is no excuse for that level of stupidity. Small wonder his aides refuse to answer questions.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/challenger-flight-may-scheer-qualtrough-1.5530542


Not ideal, but if he's going to relocate to Ottawa, I think keeping the family together is ok.

IMO they should have run 2 jets.

1 for the Scheers, 1 for the other MPs.
We've spent (federally) nearly $300 Billion dollars, a few thousand so our elected representatives can stay with their families is just fine.

Also for Trudeau literally going to the cottage for the Easter weekend was just bad optics and poor judgement.
I don't think there is anything wrong with relocating to Harrington either. He just shouldn't have done it while every political leader in the country is saying "don't go to the cottage this weekend".


----------



## Longtimeago

If he is MOVING his residence to Ottawa even for an interim period, then OK, I can see moving the entire family. BUT if they went back to Alberta after a few days then yes, I'd like to hear the reason why his wife and family had to accompany him. 

Does anyone know if they are staying in Ottawa indefinitely or not? Where are they staying in Ottawa would be another question worth knowing the answer to perhaps.


----------



## Longtimeago

More on Kenney.

Where was he when he made his comments re going around Ottawa on potential treatments?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jason-kenney-health-canada-catch-up-1.5531191



He also criticized Dr. Tam in that press conference. At a time when Canadian politicians at all levels of government have been showing a pretty united front with little politics being involved, Kenney seems to persist in playing politics. His comments undermine the public's confidence in our government at a time when we need confidence. The guy is a wannabe Trumpet as far as I am concerned.


----------



## sags

Andrew Scheer doesn't seem able to make good decisions. Fortunately he will never be the PM.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> If he is MOVING his residence to Ottawa even for an interim period, then OK, I can see moving the entire family. BUT if they went back to Alberta after a few days then yes, I'd like to hear the reason why his wife and family had to accompany him.
> 
> Does anyone know if they are staying in Ottawa indefinitely or not? Where are they staying in Ottawa would be another question worth knowing the answer to perhaps.


I'd assume Stornoway.

He already said he would be there for the season. I think he should be there, and he should have his family with him.




sags said:


> Andrew Scheer doesn't seem able to make good decisions. Fortunately he will never be the PM.


I know, you love Trudeau. 
But what bad decision did Scheer make?
He moved his family on the government provided private jet, with 2 other MPs who both agreed that it was ok.
If it was really a risk, the PMO should have sent 2 jets.

It isn't like he's making weekend trips to the cottage (like the PM).

IMO If Trudeau would have simply relocated and STAYED at the summer residence, it's a non issue.
The weekend trip to the cottage is what really gets me. Again, it's one of two official residences and I don't actually see a problem, just the optics are bad.


----------



## sags

The US government relaxed testing requirements for immunity testing and the result is a deluge of unreliable tests from China.

Not only are there no proven tests available, but there is no proof there is immunity after contacting the virus. Herd immunity may not even be possible.

We need to slow down and perform the due diligence before making widespread decisions that could make the situation much worse.

The good news is that the global scientific community is focused on the virus, which greatly increases the likelihood of a vaccine.

The problem is that according to the consensus of the most knowledgeable experts, it will probably take 24 months or longer.

All this talk of reopening the economy is distracting focus from preparations for the current situation to last for several more years.

Regardless of how much it costs, or the damage to the economy........we are in a holding pattern until a vaccine is widely available.

People need to accept the reality. The reality is that even to maintain the status quo, we need better PPE now.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> I'd assume Stornoway.
> 
> He already said he would be there for the season. I think he should be there, and he should have his family with him.
> 
> 
> 
> I know, you love Trudeau.
> But what bad decision did Scheer make?
> He moved his family on the government provided private jet, with 2 other MPs who both agreed that it was ok.
> If it was really a risk, the PMO should have sent 2 jets.
> 
> It isn't like he's making weekend trips to the cottage (like the PM).
> 
> IMO If Trudeau would have simply relocated and STAYED at the summer residence, it's a non issue.
> The weekend trip to the cottage is what really gets me. Again, it's one of two official residences and I don't actually see a problem, just the optics are bad.


I agree. If Sheer has 'moved' his family as apparently he has then I have no problem with him bringing his family.

I also agree that the optics are bad for Trudeau if he is going to the 'cottage' for weekends. I don't actually have any problem with him doing it though. If driving an hour to be able to spend a day or two with his family in relatively calmer circumstances is possible without neglecting his responsibilities, I am fine with cutting him some slack. I don't imagine his 'work day' right now is not extremely busy and stressful. We are all entitled to some family time.

I think some people will always jump on a politician at any perceived opportunity and that is what has happened with both of these issues. Find the facts, see if they line up with the allegations. In this case, I don't think either does. So time to ignore them and move on to more important things, like where to find Toilet Paper. LOL


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The US government relaxed testing requirements for immunity testing and the result is a deluge of unreliable tests from China.
> 
> Not only are there no proven tests available, but there is no proof there is immunity after contacting the virus. Herd immunity may not even be possible.
> 
> We need to slow down and perform the due diligence before making widespread decisions that could make the situation much worse.
> 
> The good news is that the global scientific community is focused on the virus, which greatly increases the likelihood of a vaccine.
> 
> The problem is that according to the consensus of the most knowledgeable experts, it will probably take 24 months or longer.
> 
> All this talk of reopening the economy is distracting focus from preparations for the current situation to last for several more years.
> 
> Regardless of how much it costs, or the damage to the economy........we are in a holding pattern until a vaccine is widely available.
> 
> People need to accept the reality. The reality is that even to maintain the status quo, we need better PPE now.


Actually you touch on a point, but I think you missed it.
There is no proof of immunity after contracting the virus, if exposure doesn't cause immunity, a vaccine might not be possible. 
A treatment might still be possible, but not a vaccine. That's a problem.

As far as opening the economy, people are dying because of the Lockdown. I believe a lockdown is only justified if it results in a net reduction in deaths.
When the lockdown is projected to kill more people than will be saved, it's time to end the lockdown.

If there is no vaccine possible, and no apparent treatment, we are going to have to simply end the lockdown, or continue this dramatic infringement on our rights. These restrictions are only constitutionally valid as long as they are reasonable. Once they're causing more harm than they're wrong, ethically and legally.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> ... Not ideal, but if he's going to relocate to Ottawa, I think keeping the family together is ok.
> 
> IMO they should have run 2 jets.
> 
> 1 for the Scheers, 1 for the other MPs.
> We've spent (federally) nearly $300 Billion dollars, a few thousand so our elected representatives can stay with their families is just fine ...


Sure ... but IMO - two jets or one, temporary visit or relocating for months, it is unnecessary.

What's special about MPs, the party leaders and parliament business that it can't be done electronically?


Our company went from about ten percent that could occasionally work remotely to well over ninety percent in a week. That's probably too short a time frame for MPs to be setup across the country but there seems to be no attempt for parliament to setup what they are asking other businesses to do.


Cheers


----------



## sags

More changes to the CERB program.

It was announced that people can collect CERB as long as they earn less than $1000 per month.

Details of how the benefit works are still to come.


----------



## sags

There is a big push from the right to relax the social distancing policies and reopen the economy. 

It almost appears they are speaking in unison........from Trump to Fox News to GOP politicos. It is quickly becoming a right versus left issue.

Personally, I never think it is a good idea to play footsie with the devil. The upside is limited and the downside can be catastrophic.

Let's wait and see how it works out in other countries first.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Personally, I never think it is a good idea to play footsie with the devil. The upside is limited and the downside can be catastrophic.


How is the upside "limited"?
Do you know how many people will die if we never break lockdown?

You say it is a right/left issue.
I really doubt that, it's a science/feelings issue.

There are those who care about people and want to save the most people possible from suffering and death.
Then there are those who are just worried about people getting COVID19.

I find it funny that sags thinks the science deniers are lefties.


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Sure ... but IMO - two jets or one, temporary visit or relocating for months, it is unnecessary.
> 
> What's special about MPs, the party leaders and parliament business that it can't be done electronically?
> 
> 
> Our company went from about ten percent that could occasionally work remotely to well over ninety percent in a week. That's probably too short a time frame for MPs to be setup across the country but there seems to be no attempt for parliament to setup what they are asking other businesses to do.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Today it isn't legally to vote remotely. To change the rules of parliment needs a vote, the PM can't just decide to do things differently.
They are negotiating the setup, but nobody knows the sticking points.


----------



## sags

If this is how the Conservatives plan on using their time in Parliament, the Liberals and NDP should vote together to implement a virtual Parliament.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> If this is how the Conservatives plan on using their time in Parliament, the Liberals and NDP should vote together to implement a virtual Parliament.


They should figure out how to handle it remotely. I think pretty much everyone here agrees with that idea.


The title is accurate, when times were good, the Liberals were spending like crazy. We were adding billions of dollars to the debt, and now that we're in a crisis we really could have used that money.

Perhaps if Trudeau knew the story of the ant and the grasshopper we'd be in better shape. 

At 7:20 he talks about how more responsible governments like Harper and Chretien he talks about acted responsibly. Then he goes on with his proposal for helping people and getting the economy going, which as the shadow finance minister, is quite literally his job.

So what is your problem with the video? 
That he's giving a speech and a policy proposal? As the shadow finance minister it is quite literally his job.


----------



## andrewf

Pollievre, as part of the Harper govt, oversaw a government that squandered good times and then ran massive deficits. And that was for a recession, which was reasonably predictable. The current situation is a bit more unusual.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Pollievre, as part of the Harper govt, oversaw a government that squandered good times and then ran massive deficits. And that was for a recession, which was reasonably predictable. The current situation is a bit more unusual.


Squandered the good times, you mean the deficit reduction between being elected and the financial crisis?


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Squandered the good times, you mean the deficit reduction between being elected and the financial crisis?


I think you mean 'surplus reduction'. They came into office with a large surplus and put Ottawa into a structural deficit.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I think you mean 'surplus reduction'. They came into office with a large surplus and put Ottawa into a structural deficit.


They came in with a budget surplus, and continued to reduce spending until the crisis, then they started reducing the deficit again.
I don't blame governments for debt during a crisis, but the current PM was a fiscal disaster the instant he stepped into power.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> They came in with a budget surplus, and continued to reduce spending until the crisis, then they started reducing the deficit again.
> I don't blame governments for debt during a crisis, but the current PM was a fiscal disaster the instant he stepped into power.
> 
> View attachment 20102


They cut revenues dramatically while in office and did not exercise a whole lot of spending constraint--you can't see that in this chart, you would need to look at a chart of spending. Debt declined for the first couple of years while they were in office as most of their revenue reduction measures took a while to implement (HST reduction from 7 to 5% was a big driver, around $15B per year). That little tick down in debt at the beginning of their tenure was basically a lag in policy from the previous government.

My point is that PP doesn't have a leg to stand on when calling Trudeau a grasshopper. PP's government spent the seed corn in the first couple years of their mandate and had to spend the rest of it getting back to balance. Especially when you consider that the 2009 recession was relatively mild in Canada (no major housing correction, etc.).


----------



## MrMatt

My point is that both the Chretien Liberals and Harper Conservatives were running budget surpluses, which only end at the financial crisis.

Yes they reduced the surplus, but there was a surplus.
I think not taking more than you need is just fine. 

In fact I think the government taking more than they need is both bad for the country, and morally wrong.


----------



## sags

This is no time to lose our focus or determination. We must stay the course as long as it takes.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> My point is that both the Chretien Liberals and Harper Conservatives were running budget surpluses, which only end at the financial crisis.
> 
> Yes they reduced the surplus, but there was a surplus.
> I think not taking more than you need is just fine.
> 
> In fact I think the government taking more than they need is both bad for the country, and morally wrong.


Except the problem is there is still debt and when the Conservatives were in opposition, they weren't satisfied with the Liberals were running surpluses, they wanted a concrete plan on reducing the federal debt level. Instead, when they got into power they decided to reduce the surplus into a deficit. The obvious problem is that you are supposed to save (reduce debt in the good times) because when a recession hits, there's going to be deficits.

Here's a Fraser institute report on how the federal debt levels were by party/PM. You can ignore the reading and just take a look at the graphs. You can see that some of the highest increases and decreases were the Liberals, although the highest increases coincided with World Wars and recessions. 
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sit...al-debt-in-canada-by-prime-ministers-2019.pdf

BTW, you should realize it takes roughly 2 years for government fiscal policies to have an effect on the economy (barring global recessions), so the surplus in the first few years of the Harper government are attributable to the Liberal policies. In fact, if you remember, Harper was all for deregulating banks which would have caused Canada to have suffered more during the 2008 recession. Also, he already turned a surplus into a deficit BEFORE the recession. The recession gave the Conservatives an easy excuse to explain their debt increases, including the economic stimulus package which they fought against. Opinion | Just how sound a fiscal manager is Stephen Harper?


----------



## Longtimeago

You guys just can't stay away from political postings can you.


----------



## sags

Great........now there are "social distancing" deniers.


----------



## Longtimeago

I find it incredible that in Michigan they had people protesting in front of the State Capital against being locked down. They want everything opened up now and they protest armed! Meanwhile, they are an epicentre with more deaths in their one state than ALL of Canada. 








Armed protesters demand an end to Michigan's coronavirus lockdown orders – video


Michigan protester demanding an end to lockdown laws target governor with ‘lock her up’ chants




www.theguardian.com


----------



## bgc_fan

Longtimeago said:


> I find it incredible that in Michigan they had people protesting in front of the State Capital against being locked down. They want everything opened up now and they protest armed! Meanwhile, they are an epicentre with more deaths in their one state than ALL of Canada.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Armed protesters demand an end to Michigan's coronavirus lockdown orders – video
> 
> 
> Michigan protester demanding an end to lockdown laws target governor with ‘lock her up’ chants
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


Keep in mind that many (if not all) are Trump supporters. Some who think that the coronavirus is a Democratic hoax to grab power and ruin Trump's chances in the November election. Also, any news of deaths is just fake news trying to scare people into obeying.

Kind of ironic considering that the Republicans use that tactic all the time (caravan of refugees traveling through Mexico to invade USA). I guess chalk it up to projection.

And yes, this is political because that's how Trump supporters view this. They don't view it as a health issue, after all, Trump spent all of February at his rallies saying how overblown the coronavirus was and how it will disappear by April like a miracle.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Funny how quickly some people forget the Democrats or Trudeau telling everyone there was nothing to worry about and to live life normally. Dr. Tam even told people that masks don't work.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> My point is that both the Chretien Liberals and Harper Conservatives were running budget surpluses, which only end at the financial crisis.
> 
> Yes they reduced the surplus, but there was a surplus.
> I think not taking more than you need is just fine.
> 
> In fact I think the government taking more than they need is both bad for the country, and morally wrong.


They put Ottawa into a structural deficit. The fiscal deficits that we ran later in their mandate is a direct result of their fiscal policy. There is no "oh geez, who could have predicted the business cycle." Barely balanced during strong economic growth is a deficit over the business cycle.


----------



## andrewf

Prairie Guy said:


> Funny how quickly some people forget the Democrats or Trudeau telling everyone there was nothing to worry about and to live life normally. Dr. Tam even told people that masks don't work.


She said they don't work well enough to protect from infection when used by lay people when used in addition to social distancing. I don't think that has changed. It is effective at reducing spread (protects others), but most people are not using them to protect others. Tam was reinforcing the need for social distancing, and masks are not a substitute for social distancing.


----------



## Longtimeago

Prairie Guy said:


> Funny how quickly some people forget the Democrats or Trudeau telling everyone there was nothing to worry about and to live life normally. Dr. Tam even told people that masks don't work.


Hilarious how you twist things to suit your viewpoint Prairie Guy.

Dr. Tam told us what the evidence at the time did or did not show. That evidence changes all the time as we learn more and therefore advice given at any point in time that may be the best advice possible given the evidence can change when the evidence changes. 

You want to take the evidence today and say you should have been given advice in the past based on evidence that did NOT exist until today. Your logic is nonexistent.

Maybe that explains why you listen to people like Trump, he is equally out of his depth when it comes to understanding anything.


----------



## Longtimeago

Trump is now backing up on who will decide when things will open, it will be the Governors and our border agreement re staying closed has now been extended for another 30 days. 

The only thing the Trumpet is good at is putting his foot in his mouth repeatedly.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Today it isn't legally to vote remotely. To change the rules of parliment needs a vote, the PM can't just decide to do things differently. They are negotiating the setup, but nobody knows the sticking points.


Are they? I haven't seen any references to this being worked on.

Some corps/charities have already dealt with it so I'm not sure why there would be such a long hold up, unless they aren't making it a priority. It seems they only need twenty in Ottawa to make the change.

My understanding is who voted what is on record so it seems relatively easy to implement compared to anonymous voting.








Online voting entirely possible for MPs during times of crisis


Canada is already a world leader in online voting. With careful design, MPs could vote remotely during the COVID-19 crisis.




policyoptions.irpp.org






Maybe they were hoping it would blow over and it would be business as usual quickly but IMO, remote voting should be bumped up in priority.


Cheers


----------



## Money172375

Yet another thing I would have thought already existed. I’ve commented before that too much of this situation makes it appear that governments never thought of a possible pandemic.....or war situation. Are there not procedures already in place if members of parliament can’t all meet in one place? Feels like we did more business continuity planning in my corporate employment.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Longtimeago said:


> Hilarious how you twist things to suit your viewpoint Prairie Guy.
> 
> Dr. Tam told us what the evidence at the time did or did not show. That evidence changes all the time as we learn more and therefore advice given at any point in time that may be the best advice possible given the evidence can change when the evidence changes.
> 
> You want to take the evidence today and say you should have been given advice in the past based on evidence that did NOT exist until today. Your logic is nonexistent.
> 
> Maybe that explains why you listen to people like Trump, he is equally out of his depth when it comes to understanding anything.


All doctors have known for decades that masks help prevent the spread of disease...that's a fact, not an opinion. Dr. Tam was flat out wrong to say that they weren't helpful especially in the early stages when the virus was compared to either the flu or SARS...both of which masks will help prevent spreading.


----------



## bgc_fan

Prairie Guy said:


> All doctors have known for decades that masks help prevent the spread of disease...that's a fact, not an opinion. Dr. Tam was flat out wrong to say that they weren't helpful especially in the early stages when the virus was compared to either the flu or SARS...both of which masks will help prevent spreading.


Interesting interpretation, considering that just about every Western country did NOT recommend wearing masks until recently (within last 2 weeks). Even in Italy, which was the hardest hit, there is no general recommendation that everyone wear masks, although certain regions have mandated it. https://www.thelocal.it/20200406/coronavirus-where-should-you-wear-a-face-mask-in-italy

The CDC didn't recommend to the Americans until 2 weeks ago, and even then there was mixed messaging where Trump stated that it was a recommendation and that he wouldn't do it. It's Official: CDC Recommends Public Wear Face Masks
Even then, the recommendation was only using cloth masks, not surgical or medical grade masks.

The danger is that people get overconfident and start exposing themselves into situations where they can get infected.

In fact, the only countries that ever made wearing masks socially acceptable are Asian countries: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia/coronavirus-mask-messaging-intl-hnk/index.html


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Great........now there are "social distancing" deniers.


Like Trudeau who said he's "following the directives of heath professionals".

The drove through 3 cities, and 2 provinces to go to the cottage for the weekend.
Despite both of those provinces specifically stating such actions are not acceptable.

He's a health order denier.


----------



## junior minor

Well, in other news, they're thinking a ''Gilead science drug'' might be a solution. And the market went up ( in the States, at least) Even Air Canada had a brief spark. Nowhere near the stark level it once had, yet it's a glimpse of hope. 








Stock market live Friday: Dow jumps above 24k, second week of gains, Gilead's 'fighting chance'


Stocks rallied on a report that says a Gilead drug appeared to be an effective coronavirus treatment. Here are all the market-moving headlines.




www.cnbc.com





*3:43 pm: Stocks jump to session highs*
Stocks staged a rally in the final half hour of trading with the Dow jumping more than 600 points for a gain of 2.57%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 2.3% and 1.1%, respectively. All three are on track for their second straight week of gains. _– Stevens_


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> All doctors have known for decades that masks help prevent the spread of disease...that's a fact, not an opinion. Dr. Tam was flat out wrong to say that they weren't helpful especially in the early stages when the virus was compared to either the flu or SARS...both of which masks will help prevent spreading.


Masks used properly can help.
Most people don't know how to use masks properly, and they therefore give a false sense of security.
Of course Dr Tam didn't say that. Either she's lying and incompetent, or feels lying to the Canadian population is best.

In either case I think that there are other questions with her. Trudeau should be held accountable for appointing her, and allowing her to continue in this position.


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Are they? I haven't seen any references to this being worked on.
> 
> Some corps/charities have already dealt with it so I'm not sure why there would be such a long hold up, unless they aren't making it a priority. It seems they only need twenty in Ottawa to make the change.
> 
> My understanding is who voted what is on record so it seems relatively easy to implement compared to anonymous voting.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Online voting entirely possible for MPs during times of crisis
> 
> 
> Canada is already a world leader in online voting. With careful design, MPs could vote remotely during the COVID-19 crisis.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> policyoptions.irpp.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe they were hoping it would blow over and it would be business as usual quickly but IMO, remote voting should be bumped up in priority.
> 
> 
> Cheers





https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/house-commons-virtual-sittings-covid-19-1.5522847



They've been discussing it for weeks.

I agree, public voting can be secure. It's only when you want secret ballot that we run into problems.

Whatever the solution is, I want them to be able to hold the government accountable. I think Trudeau is an unethical narcissist and and he continues, even now to exhibit the same arrogant behavior I've complained about before.
It's not just the big things, but even the weekend trip to the cottage, he really should have done that in a way that was a bit more respectful to directives from both provinces.

That being said, I wouldn't be happy with PM Scheer. Maybe he step back and let Freeland take over, she's IMO far more competent than Trudeau. I don't like her politics, but the Premiers, particularly Doug Ford, seem supportive of her.


----------



## ian

Spouse got tested for covid today. Everyone over 65 can get a test. She has some signs. Filled out the questionaire, got a call. Four days later, this AM, she got a call to go to the drive up testing area this afternoon at a specific time. There were four stations operating at a time. Results in four days, Tues PM, by email. We were less than 10 minutes in line, about another 10 for test etc. Less than 20 minutes in total and we were on our way home. Very impressed the organization and the process.


----------



## sags

Shoot.........wishing you guys the best.


----------



## Plugging Along

ian said:


> Spouse got tested for covid today. Everyone over 65 can get a test. She has some signs. Filled out the questionaire, got a call. Four days later, this AM, she got a call to go to the drive up testing area this afternoon at a specific time. There were four stations operating at a time. Results in four days, Tues PM, by email. We were less than 10 minutes in line, about another 10 for test etc. Less than 20 minutes in total and we were on our way home. Very impressed the organization and the process.


Hope your spouse and you are alright.


----------



## ian

Thanks. I did the on line questionnaire at noon, got a call back at 5:30. It will take another four days to get an appt. with the testing area Because I am not in any way urgent.


----------



## Synergy

MrMatt said:


> Like Trudeau who said he's "following the directives of heath professionals".
> 
> The drove through 3 cities, and 2 provinces to go to the cottage for the weekend.
> Despite both of those provinces specifically stating such actions are not acceptable.
> 
> He's a health order denier.


Recommendation = Stay HOME. What a Hippocratic. Cottagers have been recommended over and over again to stay HOME. What a douche bag.


----------



## ian

Not much different than Scheer. Who, at the last minute added his wife a children to a nine seat plane flying from Victoria to Ottawa. There were two other passengers, other than the Scheers, on that flight.


----------



## sags

Harrington Lake residence is 25 kms from Ottawa. Trudeau would return to the same hospital in Ottawa if he became ill.

His family was already there. It is a big residence on expansive grounds. There is always security there to handle any infected intruders.


----------



## sags

Scheer has written an open letter to Canadians.

He wants the government to sit several days a week and wants the PM and cabinet ministers there so he can question them.

He doesn't appear to understand we are in a pandemic and they got stuff to do.

It looks like he is trying to undermine the Conservative Party out of spite and make them look obstructive.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Scheer has written an open letter to Canadians.
> 
> He wants the government to sit several days a week and wants the PM and cabinet ministers there so he can question them.
> 
> He doesn't appear to understand we are in a pandemic and they got stuff to do.
> 
> It looks like he is trying to undermine the Conservative Party out of spite and make them look obstructive.


It's almost like he understands the role of Parliment in a parlimentary democracy.

Remember, when Trudeau had all sorts of goodwill and support, he squandered it by trying for a 2 year power grab.
Trudeau is the one spitting out bald faced lies to the media, and he doesn't even bash an eyelash over it.

We're in a real emergency, and Trudeau shows himself to be an self entitled liar. And you're afraid that someone might ask him some questions.

The government knew about COVID19 in January.. why did it take them so long to act?


----------



## ian

The longer Scheer stays on, the harder it will be for the next Conservative leader. I feel for them. Scheer's desperation to get a few lines in the newspapers of a few seconds on air are showing up his incompetence to lead.

Their leadership race is at a standstill, they could only muster two B team candidates, the balance are either no hopers, wannabes, or a few bricks short of a load. Perhaps a combination of two or more. Not one of the A team member chose to run. For good reason-the Party is a mess with little hope of repair in the near term.

We desperately need an effective Opposition Party at this point in time. Looking to the Scheer Conservatives to fill this role is pointless. Scheer is letting this country down. They have proven themselves to be incapable, perhaps worse, of the task IMHO. Covid or no Covid.


----------



## james4beach

A friend, an American business partner of mine is currently stuck overseas (southeast Asia) and is texting me today with the following:

He's feeling bad, trying to sleep. "Really sick" ... "I'm kind of delirious" ... "extremely weak" ... "sore throat, joint pain, general aches"

Any thoughts on how I can assist him from a distance? Maybe just emotional support at this point. I offered to look up clinics in his vicinity.


----------



## :) lonewolf

bgc_fan said:


> And yes, this is political because that's how Trump supporters view this. They don't view it as a health issue, after all, Trump spent all of February at his rallies saying how overblown the coronavirus was and how it will disappear by April like a miracle.





MrMatt said:


> It's almost like he understands the role of Parliment in a parlimentary democracy.
> 
> Remember, when Trudeau had all sorts of goodwill and support, he squandered it by trying for a 2 year power grab.
> Trudeau is the one spitting out bald faced lies to the media, and he doesn't even bash an eyelash over it.
> 
> We're in a real emergency, and Trudeau shows himself to be an self entitled liar. And you're afraid that someone might ask him some questions.
> 
> The government knew about COVID19 in January.. why did it take them so long to act?


 Trudeau thinks he can control the temperature of the earth to .5 degree. Trudeau does not have the life experience to have developed the courage to go against political correctness. Trump has the courage to tell people to protest against the lockdowns, Does not blindly accept what WHO says is true. Trudeau will probably never going to get anything right because he is a wimp & his primary focus is being political correct.


----------



## stantistic

Here in frozen desolate Manitoba, I would like to add my voice to the other voices crying in the wilderness, that the present anti-Covid regulations are unduly burdensome and should be eased.


----------



## Money172375

My sense in Ontario is things are more restrictive than ever and we continue to set records for deaths each day. Grocery shopping has become an hours long affair due to lineups, capacity restrictions and social distancing. Things appear better in the Prairies and BC, but I feel me are still at least a month away from any real lifting of restrictions in Ontario.


----------



## Longtimeago

People are getting 'antsy'. What a surprise. Most have the attention span and patience of an ant. But that doesn't make what they want to happen the right thing to do.

We haven't even peaked yet and the down slope can be as bad or worse than the up slope if we allow things to get away from us. So far, Canada has done about as good a job of containing the virus and protecting our hospitals from being overloaded as can be expected. 

Easing is in the hands of the Provinces to determine when and what will be allowed. Individual Provinces can choose to ease up at their discretion and that probably does make sense generally speaking. The problem will be if they start to ease up based on community spread going down, they have to be able to test and track vigorously when they do have cases still popping up. 

So rather than people just saying, 'we need to start easing up', they should be asking 'are we READY to start easing up.' ie. can we test and track.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> My sense in Ontario is things are more restrictive than ever and we continue to set records for deaths each day. Grocery shopping has become an hours long affair due to lineups, capacity restrictions and social distancing. Things appear better in the Prairies and BC, but I feel me are still at least a month away from any real lifting of restrictions in Ontario.


When you say grocery shopping is an 'hours long affair due to lineups', Money172375, who do you think are in those lineups? What I mean is, is everyone in that lineup going in to buy 1 or more weeks of groceries? Or are a large number of them going in to buy a few items as was their norm before the virus?

My sense is that people have still not adapted their grocery shopping habits to suit the circumstances. Too many are still following their old habits of more frequent shopping. That makes the lineup longer than it has to be n'est-ce pas?


----------



## sags

james4beach said:


> A friend, an American business partner of mine is currently stuck overseas (southeast Asia) and is texting me today with the following:
> 
> He's feeling bad, trying to sleep. "Really sick" ... "I'm kind of delirious" ... "extremely weak" ... "sore throat, joint pain, general aches"
> 
> Any thoughts on how I can assist him from a distance? Maybe just emotional support at this point. I offered to look up clinics in his vicinity.


What age and health is your friend ? Any pre-existing conditions ? It sounds like he may have typical COVID symptoms.

The key things to watch for are *high fever and difficulty breathing*. If he experiences either, he should call emergency services for guidance immediately.

This is no ordinary flu. It batters even the young and healthy, but most survive without the necessity of emergency care.

I would also advise that he has someone looking in on him. The condition can change within minutes and people become incapacitated.

P.S. It sounds like a normal type of flu until you mention the "delirium" part. That is not normal for the flu, but is reported among COVID patients.

P.P.S. Is there anyone from the company he works for who could be notified to keep an eye on him ? His temperature should be monitored.


----------



## sags

I was surprised that some Provinces haven't recorded any deaths yet, but maybe it depends on the level of testing.

I believe the list was Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, PEI, Yukon, NWT, and Nanuvut.

Given the low populations and large land masses it is expected the infection rate would be lower there.

Although some areas of the country might be opened, supply chain dependency would be a problem.


----------



## ian

Look south. Look at the stats in a few states where distancing was not put into place or watch what happens in states like Florida where some restrictions have been lifted and in some area beaches are not open. If we do this we will be able to judge how wise this action is.

I would rather distance, line up to shop, shop as we do only once every two weeks, etc rather than take a chance at becoming ill or infecting others. Are we so much of a woosy population that we cannot follow the advice from our health care experts. Or would we rather be lying in a hospital bed hooked up to a ventilator?

Sure it has taken me longer to shop. So, what is the big deal. I lined up for twenty minutes at one store. Hardly the end of the world.


----------



## sags

Fortunately, it doesn't sound like our political leaders have any interest in opening up the economy too soon.

The government is committed to supporting Canadians for as long as it takes. Fortunately, Canada was in good shape in debt to GDP before the crisis.

We won't be in very good shape after, but still much better than the US and many other countries. If it is a problem for us........it will be a nightmare for them.


----------



## :) lonewolf

ian said:


> Look south. Look at the stats in a few states where distancing was not put into place or watch what happens in states like Florida where some restrictions have been lifted and in some area beaches are not open. If we do this we will be able to judge how wise this action is.
> 
> I would rather distance, line up to shop, shop as we do only once every two weeks, etc rather than take a chance at becoming ill or infecting others. Are we so much of a woosy population that we cannot follow the advice from our health care experts. Or would we rather be lying in a hospital bed hooked up to a ventilator?
> 
> Sure it has taken me longer to shop. So, what is the big deal. I lined up for twenty minutes at one store. Hardly the end of the world.


If the economy does not get going by May 1st will stair step lower for over a decade based on Martin Armstrongs computer model which has predicted every crash since 1987. Shutting the economy down will cause more deaths then it will save.

The virus is no black plaque with over 90% kill rate. Shutting the economy down & taking away freedom because of an over hyped virus that kills less then the flu is stupid. Canada needs to break all ties with the corrupt World health organization, CDC & Bill Gates to name a few.

Just like any cycle, the energy from a virus cycle can not be removed. It takes a big ego to think you can control cycles such temp of the earth & eliminating the cycle of life & death


----------



## cainvest

stantistic said:


> Here in frozen desolate Manitoba, I would like to add my voice to the other voices crying in the wilderness, that the present anti-Covid regulations are unduly burdensome and should be eased.


Manitoba will likely be one of the first provinces to ease up on restrictions providing the numbers stay really low. See what happens by May 1st when the current regulations expire.


----------



## ian

I am not adverse to opening up the economy gradually. But certainly not until our public health care specialist are on board with it. NOT because a politician or some man in the street wants to open it up based on zero scientific evidence or knowledge.

Let's let the health experts do their job. We need to work with them to get past this, not work against them. If science and health statistics indicate that we can start the process then fine. But not before. I have absolutely no knowledge in this area nor do I pretend to have any insight of value. Like everyone else, I have to depend on those who really know because of their knowledge/expertise, not those who just think they know because of emotion or bravado.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Fortunately, it doesn't sound like our political leaders have any interest in opening up the economy too soon.
> 
> The government is committed to supporting Canadians for as long as it takes. Fortunately, Canada was in good shape in debt to GDP before the crisis.
> 
> We won't be in very good shape after, but still much better than the US and many other countries. If it is a problem for us........it will be a nightmare for them.


Our economy was in poor shape with a disaterous debt level before the crisis.

Sure it is looking like we're going to do well, but to pretend that we were in a good position before is just lunacy.


----------



## james4beach

Thanks sag



sags said:


> What age and health is your friend ? Any pre-existing conditions ? It sounds like he may have typical COVID symptoms.
> 
> The key things to watch for are *high fever and difficulty breathing*. If he experiences either, he should call emergency services for guidance immediately.
> 
> This is no ordinary flu. It batters even the young and healthy, but most survive without the necessity of emergency care.


He's in his mid 30s and I think is generally in pretty good health. But you're right, one has to watch out for the difficulty breathing.



sags said:


> I would also advise that he has someone looking in on him. The condition can change within minutes and people become incapacitated.
> 
> P.S. It sounds like a normal type of flu until you mention the "delirium" part. That is not normal for the flu, but is reported among COVID patients.
> 
> P.P.S. Is there anyone from the company he works for who could be notified to keep an eye on him ? His temperature should be monitored.


That part will be very difficult because he works independently. But he does have roommates, so I will remind him to ask them to keep an eye on him.


----------



## james4beach

This recent article describes how COVID-19 might impact the brain



> "We're seeing a significant increase in the number of patients with large strokes," Dr. Johanna Fifi, associate director of the cerebrovascular center at the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, said.
> 
> Many are patients in their 30s and 40s. Over a recent two-week period, Fifi told NBC News she had five COVID-19 patients under age 49, all with strokes resulting from a blockage in one of the major blood vessels leading to the brain.


I think it would be ridiculous to "re-open the economy" so hastily, when we still know too little about the disease. Shutting everything down is a measure to buy time, both so healthcare systems can adapt and not collapse, AND so we can learn more about the disease.

Infections will spread like wildfire the moment workplaces and borders are re-opened. Do you really want to risk doing that when people in their 30s and 40s might get so severely injured?

What do you think happens to the economy if you knock out or permanently injure a whole bunch of 30 and 40 year olds?


----------



## Plugging Along

james4beach said:


> A friend, an American business partner of mine is currently stuck overseas (southeast Asia) and is texting me today with the following:
> 
> He's feeling bad, trying to sleep. "Really sick" ... "I'm kind of delirious" ... "extremely weak" ... "sore throat, joint pain, general aches"
> 
> Any thoughts on how I can assist him from a distance? Maybe just emotional support at this point. I offered to look up clinics in his vicinity.


Does you friend have anyone else living with him or can help him?

Somethings that may help (he probably knows this already, but just in case there is one tip that may help:

Opening some windows (assuming the air outside isn't over polluted and he can get fresh air going in)
Increase the humidity at his place. Humidifier, putting out pans of water, running a bath with the door open, running the dishwasher and letting it air dry while still hot, boiling water (only if there is someone in the house), running a slow cooker or instant pot with water in it, etc. Higher humidity helps with the sore throat, especially when sleeping
Saline nasal flushes
Warm and cool compresses on his head if he is has the chills or a fever
Warm bath soak with espon salts
Essential oils with methonal, peppermint, etc, especially when sleeping
Tylonal (not advil) for the pain
Vitamins and suppliments
Plenty of fluids for dehydration especially that are warm (not cold drinks) and to maintain nutrition. (bone) broths, teas, extra runny rice porridge, coconut water (had magnesium to which increases absorption)

Set up a system where he emails or texts someone twice a day to make sure he is alright.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> This recent article describes how COVID-19 might impact the brain
> 
> 
> 
> I think it would be ridiculous to "re-open the economy" so hastily, when we still know too little about the disease. Shutting everything down is a measure to buy time, both so healthcare systems can adapt and not collapse, AND so we can learn more about the disease.
> 
> Infections will spread like wildfire the moment workplaces and borders are re-opened. Do you really want to risk doing that when people in their 30s and 40s might get so severely injured?
> 
> What do you think happens to the economy if you knock out or permanently injure a whole bunch of 30 and 40 year olds?


I completely agree.
However I think they need to develop a plan for how and when to open aspects of the economy. I don't think we should have much opening until an area is clearly under control, for most of Ontario and Quebec, this is months off. 

Right now, we actually have NO PLAN to ever open the economy.
They have this idea that we will get to nearly zero cases, then reopen, and hope we don't have a second wave.

That's not very practical.

The other plan is to get a vaccine, then reopen. That presumes an effective vaccine is possible, let alone that we develop one that makes the situation better.








When will a COVID-19 vaccine be ready?


Health officials have said that a vaccine could be ready next year, if we take some shortcuts.




www.livescience.com





Therefore saying "when we get a vaccine" is not acceptable either.
We can't wait for a "good vaccine" that may never arrive.


We need to develop a plan, based on the reality of the situation and models and information we have today, and update it as new information becomes available.
I think a reasonable plan will be areas with sufficiently low active cases, and good monitoring can be partially opened. Unfortunately this will require significant restrictions on travel and other constitutional rights. Which I am uncomfortable with, and I expect compliance with these measures will worsen as the crisis ages, and people question politicians more. Particularly when politicians violate the very measures that they're "endorsing".

Finally we should watch for malicious actors, being in the wild COVID 19 is much easier to get access to than something like SARS, MERS or Ebola. Whatever the plan is, we must consider hostile actors.


----------



## Money172375

There is a Covid 19 breathing technique that was getting some press. Google it. Establishes a baseline for breathing so future compromised breathing can be defined against.....and also assists with opening the lungs. Might all be hog-wash, but can’t see how it might hurt.


----------



## sags

When videos started coming out of China showing people having seizures in the hospital they were labelled as fake.

Videos of people collapsing in public were labeled fake. Videos of people being transferred in a protective bubbles were labelled fake.

When videos came out showing people eating bats, they were labelled fake. We now know the virus transferred from bat to human.

As it turns out they weren't fake at all. It cannot be claimed the Chinese didn't warn everyone......at least the Chinese people.

The Chinese doctor who discovered the virus in a human tried to warn fellow doctors. He died from the virus.

The Chinese government didn't warn people, but the Chinese people begged the world to listen and were ignored.

It may be a needed lesson that just because something doesn't have an official government sanction, doesn't mean it is fake.

The kind of videos mentioned were available and broadly spread. I don't believe the US intelligence services weren't aware of them.

If they knew........Trump knew. I started this thread months ago, so even old Sags knew something was happening in China and it wasn't good.


----------



## sags

People put on a ventilator need to be heavily sedated to tolerate the intubation.

The sedation causes all the musles to relax and causes damage if ventilated for more than a few days.

I am wondering if doctors tried the CPAP machines that people use for COPD that helps them breathe at night.

Any way to provide oxygen without the use of a ventilator would be a good thing. Sometimes just a fan blowing on the face helps.

I only wonder because it has long been known that placing patients with COPD on their stomachs or having them sleep in an incline position helps them breath by taking weight off their lungs. Too many of us carry extra body weight which may be a contributing factor to breathlessness.

I would have assumed doctors tried that long before now, but apparently not.

One expert doctor says they rushed to put people on ventilators too soon and disregarded the possible damage caused.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> People put on a ventilator need to be heavily sedated to tolerate the intubation.
> 
> The sedation causes all the musles to relax and causes damage if ventilated for more than a few days.
> 
> I am wondering if doctors tried the CPAP machines that people use for COPD that helps them breathe at night.
> 
> Any way to provide oxygen without the use of a ventilator would be a good thing. Sometimes just a fan blowing on the face helps.
> 
> I only wonder because it has long been known that placing patients with COPD on their stomachs or having them sleep in an incline position helps them breath by taking weight off their lungs. Too many of us carry extra body weight which may be a contributing factor to breathlessness.
> 
> I would have assumed doctors tried that long before now, but apparently not.
> 
> One expert doctor says they rushed to put people on ventilators too soon and disregarded the possible damage caused.


Ventillators are the last option after all other options such s just oxygen masks, or nasal oxygen.
Ventillation is sedated & typically paralyzed.
CPAPs were used, but they cause airborne "splash".


It's becoming apparent that you haven't even tried basic research on this.
Please post your support that doctors aren't following ARD treatment protocols.


----------



## :) lonewolf

They are talking about keeping the economy locked down for 18 months yet no virus has ever had anywhere near that long of a cycle. The virus is starting to fade now & will most likely pick up in the fall. 

Sweden has had no lock down & the number of deaths are no higher in Sweden then the UK.

We have been continually lied to by organizations that have received huge funding by Gates overstating the dangers of covid. The reason they locked down the economy was they told us there would not be enough hospital beds which is simply just not the case.


----------



## :) lonewolf

In the US the number of deaths for March is something like 10 - 15% below the last 3 years. The virus gave the globalists what they wanted shut down of the world economy.


----------



## :) lonewolf

MrMatt said:


> Ventillators are the last option after all other options such s just oxygen masks, or nasal oxygen.
> Ventillation is sedated & typically paralyzed.
> CPAPs were used, but they cause airborne "splash".
> 
> 
> It's becoming apparent that you haven't even tried basic research on this.
> Please post your support that doctors aren't following ARD treatment protocols.


Medicade in the US is giving 39,000 dollars when a ventilator is used. Which encourages hospitals to use them.

I saw a doctor on you tube from New York say the way they were being instructed to use the ventilators was causing more harm & deaths then if they were not used. Was he lying I do not know ? There are people out there that hate Trump & would love to keep the country locked down.


----------



## james4beach

Plugging Along said:


> Does you friend have anyone else living with him or can help him?


Thanks for the ideas, these were helpful. I passed on some to him, and he liked the coconut water idea. He rents a room in a house, so there are roommates. There are other people around him.

I'm worried for him; it really sounds like my friend could have COVID19, or something else quite serious. What he has is way beyond a regular cold or flu. Could be Dengue Fever.

At this point I'm mainly trying assist him as a communication bridge and encouraging him to connect with his family. I'm encouraging him to go to a clinic if he feels that his condition is worsening.

He has medical people within his family so I am just trying to make sure he connects with them. It could be that he's concerned about worrying them. It's also scary being in a foreign country when you're in bad shape. Maybe he's afraid that if he goes to the clinic, that they are going to detain / isolate him somewhere... a legitimate fear. Tough decisions to make for a traveller.


----------



## MrMatt

:) lonewolf said:


> Medicade in the US is giving 39,000 dollars when a ventilator is used. Which encourages hospitals to use them.
> 
> I saw a doctor on you tube from New York say the way they were being instructed to use the ventilators was causing more harm & deaths then if they were not used. Was he lying I do not know ? There are people out there that hate Trump & would love to keep the country locked down.


I think I need to elaborate.
Ventilators are the last option after all other options such as just oxygen masks, or nasal oxygen.
Ventilators do cause lung damage than many other options, which is why they should be used last.

I've also heard the suggestion that people are getting put on ventilators prematurely to get the higher payments from the government. I haven't heard of any documented cases of this, and it would have to be pretty severe to be "proven". Also with mechanical ventilation being so expensive to do, I don't see doctors hurting patients for a few thousand dollars.

It's also true that there is still an active debate on how to treat COVID19. Even with ventilators, there is debate on the settings, even if they should do larger or smaller volumes of air etc. *There is no consensus on the proper procedure*.
It is incredibly likely that 2 doctors might have a different line on where to switch to mechanical ventilation, particularly if they're following different treatment profiles.
It isn't clear when to switch from an oxygen mask, to a nasal cannula, it's a judgement call.

Also as sags pointed out there are reports of people just collapsing in the street, if you think they're progressing too fast, you might want to jump from facemask oxygen to ventillation quicker.

This isn't much different than the use of hydroxychloraquin and arithromycin (I think that's it).
1. It isn't proven to work.
2. It reportedly reduces viral load. Lower viral load (ie less virus) should be better.

I think there are too many variables to suggest widespread malpractice.
I haven't seen hospitalization/icu/ventillator data out of NY.
But my understanding that it's typically about half of hospitalizations are in ICU/ventillatiors in areas without a shortfall.
Interestingly I just checked the ontario data, we have 828 in hospital, 250 in ICU, and 197 in ICU on ventilator. So we have less than 1/3 of hospitalizations in ICU. With most ICU on ventiltors. about 2% of total case load.

New York has over 600k active cases, at 2% that's 12k ventilators, which I believe is close to their total availability. It seems unlikely that they're using them unnecessarily, unless Ontario or other jurisdictions are using them unnecessarily. The theory that they're using unecessary ventilators to line their pockets seems unlikely.

Finally only 20% put on ventilators survive, it's a last ditch attempt to save lives, I don't imagine any heath professional is taking this lightly. They know that when they put people under, that person will never wake up.


----------



## Longtimeago

How much of an idiot does someone need to be to not contact a doctor and ask to be tested when they have symptoms that could be Covid19?

Let me see. Say I am away from home, I get sick, it could be Covid19 based on my symptoms. I lie there and don't call a doctor because it might get me isolated/detained and interfere with my travel plans. Yeah right, I'm gonna do that.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> I think I need to elaborate.
> Ventilators are the last option after all other options such as just oxygen masks, or nasal oxygen.
> Ventilators do cause lung damage than many other options, which is why they should be used last.
> 
> I've also heard the suggestion that people are getting put on ventilators prematurely to get the higher payments from the government. I haven't heard of any documented cases of this, and it would have to be pretty severe to be "proven". Also with mechanical ventilation being so expensive to do, I don't see doctors hurting patients for a few thousand dollars.
> 
> It's also true that there is still an active debate on how to treat COVID19. Even with ventilators, there is debate on the settings, even if they should do larger or smaller volumes of air etc. *There is no consensus on the proper procedure*.
> It is incredibly likely that 2 doctors might have a different line on where to switch to mechanical ventilation, particularly if they're following different treatment profiles.
> It isn't clear when to switch from an oxygen mask, to a nasal cannula, it's a judgement call.
> 
> Also as sags pointed out there are reports of people just collapsing in the street, if you think they're progressing too fast, you might want to jump from facemask oxygen to ventillation quicker.
> 
> This isn't much different than the use of hydroxychloraquin and arithromycin (I think that's it).
> 1. It isn't proven to work.
> 2. It reportedly reduces viral load. Lower viral load (ie less virus) should be better.
> 
> I think there are too many variables to suggest widespread malpractice.
> I haven't seen hospitalization/icu/ventillator data out of NY.
> But my understanding that it's typically about half of hospitalizations are in ICU/ventillatiors in areas without a shortfall.
> Interestingly I just checked the ontario data, we have 828 in hospital, 250 in ICU, and 197 in ICU on ventilator. So we have less than 1/3 of hospitalizations in ICU. With most ICU on ventiltors. about 2% of total case load.
> 
> New York has over 600k active cases, at 2% that's 12k ventilators, which I believe is close to their total availability. It seems unlikely that they're using them unnecessarily, unless Ontario or other jurisdictions are using them unnecessarily. The theory that they're using unecessary ventilators to line their pockets seems unlikely.
> 
> Finally only 20% put on ventilators survive, it's a last ditch attempt to save lives, I don't imagine any heath professional is taking this lightly. They know that when they put people under, that person will never wake up.


How what is happening in the USA can impact us here in Canada is of relevance but I fail to see the relevance of who gets put on a ventilator or how much it costs, in the USA, is of relevance.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> How what is happening in the USA can impact us here in Canada is of relevance but I fail to see the relevance of who gets put on a ventilator or how much it costs, in the USA, is of relevance.


The allegation was made that people are getting put on ventilators because the hospitals get paid more for people on ventilators. 
I think such allegations are not realistic, nor supported by the available data.
Key points.
The data suggests comparable use rates of ventilation.
There is no standard treatment protocol for COVID19, as such it is hard to argue that the treatment is inappropriate. They are using existing the treatment protocols for other similar diseases.

Why would people be afraid to call the doctor? 
There are people suggesting that it should be mandatory to be seized and transported to the hospital if you're symptomatic. I don't think this is appropriate. This is happening in some countries.
At least it's better than the North Korean treatment plan.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> The allegation was made that people are getting put on ventilators because the hospitals get paid more for people on ventilators.
> I think such allegations are not realistic, nor supported by the available data.
> Key points.
> The data suggests comparable use rates of ventilation.
> There is no standard treatment protocol for COVID19, as such it is hard to argue that the treatment is inappropriate. They are using existing the treatment protocols for other similar diseases.
> 
> Why would people be afraid to call the doctor?
> There are people suggesting that it should be mandatory to be seized and transported to the hospital if you're symptomatic. I don't think this is appropriate. This is happening in some countries.
> At least it's better than the North Korean treatment plan.


Again, who cares what allegations are made in the USA, they are not applicable to us here in Canada. 

Re mandatory 'seized and transported to hospital', let me think. I'm sick, I'm in another country, I have no way of getting home under the circumstances. Should I not call a doctor because in the country I'm in, they might 'seize and transport me to a hospital'? Wait though let me think some more. If I am opposed to people being seized and transported, should I stand on my principles? Well let me think some more. If I do stand on my principles opposing that as I don't see it as 'appropriate', what might happen. Umm, I might die. 

Answer, screw the principles, that is NO reason to not call a doctor.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Again, who cares what allegations are made in the USA, they are not applicable to us here in Canada.
> 
> Re mandatory 'seized and transported to hospital', let me think. I'm sick, I'm in another country, I have no way of getting home under the circumstances. Should I not call a doctor because in the country I'm in, they might 'seize and transport me to a hospital'? Wait though let me think some more. If I am opposed to people being seized and transported, should I stand on my principles? Well let me think some more. If I do stand on my principles opposing that as I don't see it as 'appropriate', what might happen. Umm, I might die.
> 
> Answer, screw the principles, that is NO reason to not call a doctor.


Lets say you're sick, but don't have COVID19, they seize you and put you in the COVID19 ward, and now you have COVID19.
Lets say you have allergies, sneeze, you get reported, seized, and put in the COVID19 ward and now you get COVID19.

I know you're not in North Korea, but their solution is executions, not sure you'd want to call a doctor there.

So yes, there absolutely are completely legitimate reasons to not call a doctor. Particularly if you're in North Korea.

I really think this absolutist view that there is only one right answer is counterproductive to effective discussion.


----------



## ian

Very impressed with Alberta Health Care. My spouse took the test (drive in) on Thursday afternoon. She was told it would take four days for the results. She got an automated call this morning with negative results.

We are expecting the covid numbers to increase in Alberta now that testing has ramped up significantly and is available to anyone presenting any symptoms whatsoever.


----------



## :) lonewolf

james4beach said:


> This recent article describes how COVID-19 might impact the brain
> 
> 
> 
> I think it would be ridiculous to "re-open the economy" so hastily, when we still know too little about the disease. Shutting everything down is a measure to buy time, both so healthcare systems can adapt and not collapse, AND so we can learn more about the disease.
> 
> Infections will spread like wildfire the moment workplaces and borders are re-opened. Do you really want to risk doing that when people in their 30s and 40s might get so severely injured?
> 
> What do you think happens to the economy if you knock out or permanently injure a whole bunch of 30 and 40 year olds?


The thing is the climate change people have been trying to shut down the economy for years. The stats on climate change were bogus as well as the numbers regarding covid. Without the truth a rational approach can not be taken. I have no problem with keeping the economy down if it is reasonable to do so. In this case with covid they are playing & lying with the numbers to cause as much panic as possible.


----------



## Prairie Guy

:) lonewolf said:


> The thing is the climate change people have been trying to shut down the economy for years. The stats on climate change were bogus as well as the numbers regarding covid. Without the truth a rational approach can not be taken. I have no problem with keeping the economy down if it is reasonable to do so. In this case with covid they are playing & lying with the numbers to cause as much panic as possible.


A recent Stanford study showed that Covid 19 infected 50 - 85 times more people than originally reported. With 42 reported deaths as of Apr 6 that's a fatality rate of 0.001% to 0.002%.









Stanford antibody study estimates COVID-19 infected 50 to 85 times more people than testing identified in Santa Clara County


In the weeks since the coronavirus outbreak has squelched daily life in America, researchers have struggled to assess the true spread of the virus. But initial results from a Northern California st…




ktla.com


----------



## Plugging Along

ian said:


> Very impressed with Alberta Health Care. My spouse took the test (drive in) on Thursday afternoon. She was told it would take four days for the results. She got an automated call this morning with negative results.
> 
> We are expecting the covid numbers to increase in Alberta now that testing has ramped up significantly and is available to anyone presenting any symptoms whatsoever.


That was really quick. Glad to hear that you guys are okay.


----------



## MrMatt

:) lonewolf said:


> The thing is the climate change people have been trying to shut down the economy for years. The stats on climate change were bogus as well as the numbers regarding covid. Without the truth a rational approach can not be taken. I have no problem with keeping the economy down if it is reasonable to do so. In this case with covid they are playing & lying with the numbers to cause as much panic as possible.


Bit more on the evil conspiracy side than I like.

But the truth is, there seems to be significant amounts of science deniers who want to push to keep the economy on lockdown and government assistance as long as possible.

There were also mainstream politicians like Bernie Sanders calling for nationalization of the economy, and they are trying to use COVID19 lockdowns as the lever to justify such actions.

I find it interesting that the science deniers on COVID19 are the same ones pushing Climate change, and they still end up with the same solution of a socialist authoritarian dictatorship.
They're banning all protest, and fining people for questioning their authority. Heck in Ontario they've reintroduced carding. 

I'm not saying this is a conspiracy, but I think they're like a hammer which sees every problem as a nail.
The solution is central government control of everything, no matter the problem.

If only they'd listen to the science on COVID19.


----------



## sags

Every day I get up and think maybe I will hear there is a magic cure found.

After listening to Dr. Birxx today, I am not sure we will ever find one.

She said it is unknown if infected people develop immunity or for how long. She said a vaccine may be useless.

What that tells me is we need some really good protective gear, not the cheap crap we now have available.

Interesting that while much of the news is about old people, 40% of hospitalizations for COVID are age 20-59 and some of them have a really rough time.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Every day I get up and think maybe I will hear there is a magic cure found.
> 
> After listening to Dr. Birxx today, I am not sure we will ever find one.
> 
> She said it is unknown if infected people develop immunity or for how long. She said a vaccine may be useless.
> 
> What that tells me is we need some really good protective gear, not homemade masks, or cheap Chinese made surgical masks. We need something much better.
> 
> Interesting that although much of the news is about old people, about 40% of hospitalizations for COVID are age 20-59 and some of them have a really rough time.


I've been saying that a vaccine might not be possible, and posting references to support that for over a week.

My question remains, in light of the fact that there is no cure, and there is no vaccine, do you support a permanent lockdown?
Or should we at least be developing a plan to reopen what we can within the limits of our current scientific knowledge?


----------



## ian

I believe that the mortality rate will go down in those jurisdictions where wide spread covid testing is available. It is important to test as many people as possible in order to identify and isolate those who actually are found to have the virus. It will stop others from being infected.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Lets say you're sick, but don't have COVID19, they seize you and put you in the COVID19 ward, and now you have COVID19.
> Lets say you have allergies, sneeze, you get reported, seized, and put in the COVID19 ward and now you get COVID19.
> 
> I know you're not in North Korea, but their solution is executions, not sure you'd want to call a doctor there.
> 
> So yes, there absolutely are completely legitimate reasons to not call a doctor. Particularly if you're in North Korea.
> 
> I really think this absolutist view that there is only one right answer is counterproductive to effective discussion.


A poster here wrote about a specific person in a specific country which as far as I know is not N. Korea. My response is in regards to that specific person MrMatt. Why would that person not call a doctor? Why would his roommates not call a doctor? Would you be sharing a house with someone in his condition right now and be happy about that?

Forget hypothetical reasons and deal with this real case.


----------



## Longtimeago

Nothing has changed. Test, trace, isolate when a positive case is found. That we can do. For the general population, stay home, physical distance if you must go out. That we can do.
Stop all non-essential travel. That we can do.

People need to stop asking 'when' and realize that 'when' will be when it will be. All the asking in the world will not make it happen any sooner. Everything is not going to go back to 'normal' any time soon so people need to get used to that reality.


----------



## sags

I am still stunned at how fast the virus spreads once it gets an opening into a group of people..

Nursing homes, conferences, bon spiels, workplaces.......etc. If restrictions are relaxed the number of viral infections will explode.

If that happened all efforts until now would have been wasted.

All the stimulus money would be down the drain and more rounds would be required. More school years would be lost. More employers would go bankrupt.

The clock is ticking and we must vanquish this virus before we run out of time to save the economy.

If that means we must stay home, allow scientists to do their work, and wait for a treatment or cure, then that is what we have to do.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I am still stunned at how fast the virus spreads once it gets an opening into a group of people..
> 
> Nursing homes, conferences, bon spiels, workplaces.......etc. If restrictions are relaxed the number of viral infections will explode.
> 
> If that happened all efforts until now would have been wasted.
> 
> All the stimulus money would be down the drain and more rounds would be required. More school years would be lost. More employers would go bankrupt.
> 
> The clock is ticking and we must vanquish this virus before we run out of time to save the economy.
> 
> If that means we must stay home, allow scientists to do their work, and wait for a treatment or cure, then that is what we have to do.


But the question remains, given there is no cure, and no vaccine.
What do you suggest we do? Lockdown forever?


Do you even understand that at some time, we're going to have to start unlocking regions to survive?

If you're suprised by how fast it spreads, you haven't been looking at the data that's been out for months.


----------



## Pluto

Reportedly, (radio) almost no one got infected while outdoors. If true it suggests the infection rate will drop with warmer weather as more people will be outdoors. 

Also, reportedly, in some locations death certificates are being filled out as death from the virus even though that claim was unconfirmed which means that the death rate could be exaggerated. There is a big difference between died with covid-19 and died from covid-19


----------



## MrMatt

Pluto said:


> Reportedly, (radio) almost no one got infected while outdoors. If true it suggests the infection rate will drop with warmer weather as more people will be outdoors.
> 
> Also, reportedly, in some locations death certificates are being filled out as death from the virus even though that claim was unconfirmed which means that the death rate could be exaggerated. There is a big difference between died with covid-19 and died from covid-19


We'll have to see what happens in Bangledesh, they had that massive funeral, outdoors, and they're also warmer.
India and Australia are also warmer, so I'm not sure that weather has much of an impact.


----------



## sags

_Do you even understand that at some time, we're going to have to start unlocking regions to survive?

If you're suprised by how fast it spreads, you haven't been looking at the data that's been out for months._

Those two statements contradict each other. This isn't a situation with available options. There is only one option.........stay home.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> _Do you even understand that at some time, we're going to have to start unlocking regions to survive?
> 
> If you're suprised by how fast it spreads, you haven't been looking at the data that's been out for months._
> 
> Those two statements contradict each other.


Uhh, care to explain how.

We know that the lockdown is hurting and killing people. 
We know that it is causing significant economic damage.
We will have to end it at some point, this can't continue forever.

We also know that COVID19 spreads quickly, the R0 has been estimated as between 1-3 for most of the outbreak.


They don't contradict each other, they are two factors that need to be considered going forward.

You're acting like the current lockdowns are some magical "free" thing that will stop COVID19 in its tracks with no ill effect. Can I remind you that we've already lost significant meat packing capacity in Canada. Domestic violence and suicide calls are skyrocketting.

The lockdown as it is today isn't completely effective, and I don't think the current levels are appropriate in all circumstances, in some we need tighter restrictions, in others looser restrictions are appropriate.


----------



## sags

The virus is too contagious to provide it with more opportunity to spread, so removing restrictions is a non-starter.

There is no evidence the lock down is responsible for hurting or killing people in large numbers. I talked to a friend who works at a Women's Emergency Centre and she said they had a small uptick in cases but they have levelled off once the CERB money started coming out. The cases usually related to people they have previously had interraction with and often involved finances. Nothing has changed, in that authorities still respond to complaints.

We may well be in lockdown for several years, with only essential workers on the job.

The last thing essential workes want is a lot of people wandering around spreading the virus and raising their personal risk.

Stay home to protect first responders and essential workers. They have enough to do already.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The virus is too contagious to provide it with more opportunity to spread, so removing restrictions is a non-starter.
> 
> There is no evidence the lock down is responsible for hurting or killing people in large numbers. I talked to a friend who works at a Women's Emergency Centre and she said they had a small uptick in cases but they have levelled off once the CERB money started coming out. The cases usually related to people they have previously had interraction with and often involved finances. Nothing has changed, in that authorities still respond to complaints.
> 
> We may well be in lockdown for several years, with only essential workers on the job.
> 
> The last thing they want is a lot of people wandering around spreading the virus and raising their personal risk.


Please provide a source for your claim that there is no increase in domestic violence.
It's increasing globally.
A New Covid-19 Crisis: Domestic Abuse Rises Worldwide

You've so far refused to answer, it seems that a permanent lockdown is okay with you, but I think it's because you think everything is just fine. I think you're wrong, and you don't have to look very far to see there are serious problems emerging.


----------



## MrMatt

Sounds like Doug Ford is developing a plan.









Ontario begins working on reopening plan as modelling data suggests cases have peaked


Ontario Premier Doug Ford has said that his government is working on a framework to guide the “gradual, measured and safe” reopening of the economy after health officials released data saying community-spread cases of COVID-19 appear to have peaked.



toronto.ctvnews.ca





Good, we need a plan, I want it done safely, and I'm okay with waiting.
I'm glad they're not just sitting on an indefinite lockdown and no plan going forward.


----------



## sags

Q....How do you know when Doug Ford is lying ?

A....You can see his lips moving.

The Ontario Nurses Association are going to court to get masks and other ppe in long term care homes around Ontario.









COVID-19: Nurses' union goes to court to force London long-term care home to provide masks


The union for Ontario nurses is escalating a dispute with Henley Place, a London long-term care home with a COVID-19 outbreak, alleging it isn’t giving staff…




lfpress.com





The local hospital is asking people to sew fabric masks for them.









London hospital calling on sewing aficionados for more masks in COVID-19 battle


The London Health Sciences Centre needs more masks in the battle against the coronavirus.




lfpress.com





Ford has repeatedly told the public that nursing homes and hospitals were well supplied with masks and other PPE.

Almost all the residents of a long term home in Owen Sound have tested positive for COVID.









Almost all residents in Owen Sound, Ont. nursing home have COVID-19


The Grey-Bruce Health Unit says 22 of 29 residents in the Mapleview Long-Term Care Home in Owen Sound have tested positive for COVID-19.



london.ctvnews.ca





Ford needs to forget about opening the economy and spend all his time getting proper PPE to the front line responders risking their lives.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Q....How do you know when Doug Ford is lying ?
> 
> A....You can see his lips moving.
> 
> The Ontario Nurses Association are going to court to get masks and other ppe in long term care homes around Ontario.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19: Nurses' union goes to court to force London long-term care home to provide masks
> 
> 
> The union for Ontario nurses is escalating a dispute with Henley Place, a London long-term care home with a COVID-19 outbreak, alleging it isn’t giving staff…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> lfpress.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The local hospital is asking people to sew fabric masks for them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> London hospital calling on sewing aficionados for more masks in COVID-19 battle
> 
> 
> The London Health Sciences Centre needs more masks in the battle against the coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> lfpress.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ford has repeatedly told the public that nursing homes and hospitals were well supplied with masks and other PPE.
> 
> He needs to forget about opening the economy and spend all his time getting proper PPE to the front line responders risking their lives.


The nursing homes have access to PPE. 

They don't need to go to court, just call the labour inspector.


----------



## sags

My wife worked today and they had a nurse knock on the outside door and want entry into the home.

Upon questioning, she was there to draw blood from a resident and had just left a long term care home where there are infections.

My wife's employer refused her entry and she went angrily off. Ford still hasn't mandated that people cannot travel from home to home.

What are you doing all day Doug ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> My wife worked today and they had a nurse knock on the outside door and want entry into the home.
> 
> Upon questioning, she was there to draw blood from a resident and had just left a long term care home where there are infections.
> 
> My wife's employer refused her entry and she went angrily off. Ford still hasn't mandated that people cannot travel from home to home.
> 
> What are you doing all day Doug ?


The order comes in to effect April 22 to give the care homes time to schedule workers to ensure enough are available to take care of patients.

If they said "immediately" we'd be facing a scheduling problem and lack of caregivers.

I don't think you are willing to look at the problems objectively.

They could have immediately banned working at multiple sites, then we would have immediately had worker shortages. Taking a few days to reschedule and ensure proper care was a trade off, and not an unreasonable one.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Finally this study of the virus by Stanford University is hitting the media. If the results are accurate this is great news and should be headline news, but a lot of the media is still ignoring it:

"Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%. By comparison, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%."

L.A. County: Coronavirus Outbreak 55X More Widespread, Less Deadly

Edit: A more in-depth article:









Coronavirus infections could be much more widespread than believed, California study suggests


A new study by Stanford University, using antibody blood tests, estimates that the number of cases in Santa Clara County may be 50 to 85 times greater than what was previously known.




www.latimes.com


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> But the question remains, given there is no cure, and no vaccine.
> What do you suggest we do? Lockdown forever?
> 
> 
> Do you even understand that at some time, we're going to have to start unlocking regions to survive?
> 
> If you're suprised by how fast it spreads, you haven't been looking at the data that's been out for months.


No one in authority is suggesting a permanent lockdown MrMatt. Don't posit an extreme as if it were the norm in terms of response.

We know we will have to start opening things up again gradually but the question is when. The answer to that question is just not simple. It depends on the curve, it depends on if we start to ease up and get a resurgence, what then, it depends on how much we open up, it can depend on a cure or a vaccine as well.

The problem is that a lot of people want a DEFINITIVE answer to WHEN everything will be opened up and that is simply not possible for anyone to give us.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> No one in authority is suggesting a permanent lockdown MrMatt. Don't posit an extreme as if it were the norm in terms of response.
> 
> We know we will have to start opening things up again gradually but the question is when. The answer to that question is just not simple. It depends on the curve, it depends on if we start to ease up and get a resurgence, what then, it depends on how much we open up, it can depend on a cure or a vaccine as well.
> 
> The problem is that a lot of people want a DEFINITIVE answer to WHEN everything will be opened up and that is simply not possible for anyone to give us.


Actually Trudeau is reported as saying restrictions of some sort will remain until a vaccine is created.
That question was specifically at sags who has has said we should stay in lockdown until a vaccine.

We have no vaccine today, we have no guarantee that a vaccine will ever exist.
The question is if these "until vaccine" people really believe that we should wait forever for a vaccine that may never arrive.


I think when the cost of the lockdown is higher than the cost of relaxing it, we should relax it.

I think every intelligent person should agree with that idea.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Actually Trudeau is reported as saying restrictions of some sort will remain until a vaccine is created.
> That question was specifically at sags who has has said we should stay in lockdown until a vaccine.
> 
> We have no vaccine today, we have no guarantee that a vaccine will ever exist.
> The question is if these "until vaccine" people really believe that we should wait forever for a vaccine that may never arrive.
> 
> 
> I think when the cost of the lockdown is higher than the cost of relaxing it, we should relax it.
> 
> I think every intelligent person should agree with that idea.


So do I. Now all we have to do is have every intelligent person agree on what defines when the cost is higher than the relaxing of restrictions.

For example, at what point does lifting unnecessary international travel become more costly than not lifting it? 

I know that I certainly won't be contemplating any vacation travel abroad before there is either a vaccine or a cure or the risk of contracting the virus has become incredibly low indeed. And I see no reason why the cost of my not travelling should ever become worth lifting that restriction.


----------



## sags

We got a glimpse of what relieving the restrictions early looks like in the US. People flocking to crowded beaches. Good times had by all.

A Rush Limbaugh rally in Austin, Texas with a big crowd all jammed together around their idiot hero.

We will know in a few days how many more were infected and who they infected and who they infected.


----------



## Albert607

Coronavirus is spreading rapidly all around the world. No one knows where things are going. I have canceled my Italy trip that was scheduled for the next month due to this coronavirus. I'm single for the last one year. I thought that if I go to Europe, maybe I will find my love there. I've heard that British girls are very beautiful, so I planned to travel to Europe. But Coronavirus made it worse. Now I have changed my destination to Ukraine to spend my holidays. But I don't know how I'll find a girl for a date there in Ukraine. I have found an article online4.love/ukrainian-dating-sites/ that is specifically written about dating in Ukraine. what you say guys should I travel to Ukraine or still need to think about another destination? I would never want to go to a place where Coronavirus has arrived. Your advice is very meaningful to me.


----------



## sags

I think this will be a discussion better held in 2022. It will take that long to test a vaccine fully.

So, 2022 isn't "forever", although it may feel like it sometimes.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I think this will be a discussion better held in 2022. It will take that long to test a vaccine fully.
> 
> So, 2022 isn't "forever", although it may feel like it sometimes.


Longtimeago, See this post. There are people who really don't think that an extended lockdown is even a problem.
They utterly deny the existance of any problems with continuous lockdowns.

They deny the increase in suicide and abuse calls.

sags is a great example of the cognitive dissonence, he fully expects a vaccine in 2 years, despite posting articles and comments that a vaccine might not be possible. He doesn't even want to discuss opening up for 2 years.

I do hope that a vaccine is possible, but we've never made a Coronavirus vacccine, and the expert consensus is that it will be much harder than for the Flu, if it is possible at all.




I don't think we should have any international travel without 14 day quarantines, and I've been saying this since before March break.
I think in areas with very low levels (near zero) of community spread that can be effectively isolated, could be opened up substantially. I even think quarantines for people travelling into a "clear" zone would be appropriate.
As someone who lives in London, I don't think we can reopen until most of Southern Ontario is clear, unless we wanted to block off a lot of roads. Also many people commute into or out of city/regional limits for work (ie to the Auto plants).

I think truckers should be generally exempt as there is little evidence they're spreading, and supply chain breakdowns could be very bad.


The post lockdown rush is crazy (look at Wuhan), I would prefer a more phased approach, with tourism and travel shut down for a longer period. Even though I really wanted to go camping this summer.


----------



## Money172375

I’m just outside a city of 30,000. About 90 mins from Toronto. We have no active cases at the moment.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> I’m just outside a city of 30,000. About 90 mins from Toronto. We have no active cases at the moment.


I think the city/health unit should decide if it makes sense, and see about relaxing. 

Maybe a few people could get some work done, we need people working to pay for all of this.
Realistically, being within an hour of any place with an outbreak is problematic, I think 2 hours or more of separation and some sort of limited access is required to be reasonably safe.

That being said, I don't know the data on COVID 19, are they still at a 1% fatality rate? 3%, 0.01%


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> I think the city/health unit should decide if it makes sense, and see about relaxing.
> 
> Maybe a few people could get some work done, we need people working to pay for all of this.
> Realistically, being within an hour of any place with an outbreak is problematic, I think 2 hours or more of separation and some sort of limited access is required to be reasonably safe.
> 
> That being said, I don't know the data on COVID 19, are they still at a 1% fatality rate? 3%, 0.01%


I’m most interested in orthodontic services. Not sure how long kids should go without adjustments. It’s usually done monthly. boat launches would also be nice. I’d be set then.


----------



## nobleea

*Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19*

In the study of 368 patients, 97 patients who took hydroxychloroquine had a 27.8% death rate. The 158 patients who did not take the drug had an 11.4% death rate. 









Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19


Coronavirus patients taking hydroxychloroquine, a treatment touted by President Trump, were no less likely to need mechanical ventilation and had higher deaths rates compared to those who did not take the drug, according to a study of hundreds of patients at US Veterans Health Administration...




www.cnn.com


----------



## MrMatt

nobleea said:


> *Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19*
> 
> In the study of 368 patients, 97 patients who took hydroxychloroquine had a 27.8% death rate. The 158 patients who did not take the drug had an 11.4% death rate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19
> 
> 
> Coronavirus patients taking hydroxychloroquine, a treatment touted by President Trump, were no less likely to need mechanical ventilation and had higher deaths rates compared to those who did not take the drug, according to a study of hundreds of patients at US Veterans Health Administration...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


There are reports that it reduces viral load.
Also until there are randomized control trials, you have to take these results with a grain of salt.

If I had a patient that was almost certainly going to die, I'd throw an untested drug at them in a futile attempt that maybe it will help. If it looks like they might make it, I'd hold off. 

I don't think we can make any conclusions, but we do know that there is no miracle cure at this time.


----------



## sags

So would a plan to reopen force people to return to their job if they don't feel safe or protected ?

It seems relevant as more than 80% of Canadians choose to remain in place until a vaccine is found.


----------



## robfordlives

It was well known that in the 1918 flu that being outside greatly REDUCED transmission. The temp hospitals outdoors did much better than the actual hospitals. They encouraged people to be outside. Beaches are about as low a risk as there could be. 

OPEN CANADA NOW!!!!!!!!


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> So would a plan to reopen force people to return to their job if they don't feel safe or protected ?
> 
> It seems relevant as more than 80% of Canadians choose to remain in place until a vaccine is found.


Please provide a source for that statistic.
It sounds made up.

Also we can't afford to have everyone sit at home for 2 years, it would seriously start to impact our economy and food supply, as well as our health.
I need to seen an optometrist and dentist, I'm not willing to wait for 2+ years with no plan for necessary health care.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I think the city/health unit should decide if it makes sense, and see about relaxing.
> 
> Maybe a few people could get some work done, we need people working to pay for all of this.
> Realistically, being within an hour of any place with an outbreak is problematic, I think 2 hours or more of separation and some sort of limited access is required to be reasonably safe.
> 
> That being said, I don't know the data on COVID 19, are they still at a 1% fatality rate? 3%, 0.01%


Seems like very high confidence it is >0.1%. The Diamond Princess had 13 deaths out of 712 cases, which is pushing 2%. Probably skews older and younger than overall population (higher mean age, lower standard deviation) so not clear how different it would be from a representative population.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Seems like very high confidence it is >0.1%. The Diamond Princess had 13 deaths out of 712 cases, which is pushing 2%. Probably skews older and younger than overall population (higher mean age, lower standard deviation) so not clear how different it would be from a representative population.


Yes, the death estimates vary widely, I feel it's somewhere around 1%, but who knows.. The big concern is crazy people who want indefinite lockdowns, and other crazy people who want no precautions at all.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I think when the cost of the lockdown is higher than the cost of relaxing it, we should relax it.
> 
> I think every intelligent person should agree with that idea.


Intelligent people say the cost of relaxing the lockdown is high. You seem to want to take off the parachute as soon as it slowed you down (not intelligent)

I suppose it might be cheaper to send anyone over 50 with signs of covid straight to the crematorium?


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Intelligent people say the cost of relaxing the lockdown is high. You seem to want to take off the parachute as soon as it slowed you down (not intelligent)
> 
> I suppose it might be cheaper to send anyone over 50 with signs of covid straight to the crematorium?


I don't see how you get that idea, I don't think just because we've slowed down we should immediately open.
I want to develop a plan to move forward, that's all I'm asking for.
I want the PLAN available and published to some extent before people start saying "okay now" too loudly.

Look at the global anti lockdown protests, in the US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy. Canadians are pretty agreable, as long as it's explained.
So make the plan, share the plan and the checkpoints. And do it FAST, once we start getting no new cases, there will be a lot of pressure to open it up. If that's too early, and it might be, you've got to share your plan with the people.



I'm okay with one plan being to wait for a vaccine, however I also want plants that
aren't dependent on scientific breakthroughs that haven't happened yet.

Cancelling the lockdown down may be "costly", but keeping the lockdown indefinately is also "costly". 

I just want someone to make a plan that balances them, and that the public will support.
I'm glad that our political leaders are looking into this.

I think it's important that saying "we should have a plan" isn't the same as we should take any particular action at any particular time.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Look at the global anti lockdown protests, in the US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy. Canadians are pretty agreable, as long as it's explained.


The protests all popped up about the same time. They all registered their domain names and social media on the exact same dates. They all have similar copy pasta descriptions.

They all seem to be coordinated by central 'misinformation' campaigns. Most of them seem to lead back to gun rights activists in the US. In my area it's the same people that will protest anything

Dig a litter deeper and you probably find foreign influences. Any angry group can be fueled with a few memes. Even wexit protesters have been traced back to foreign influences

The vast majority do not support these fringe groups


----------



## sags

Putin never takes a day off either. He has his busy little beavers on social media with all kinds of ridiculous COVID conspiracy theories.

The brilliance of the Russians is they don't take sides. They make up BS on both sides and let America tear itself apart.


----------



## sags

Given how severe the virus affects even middle aged folks, it is likely the death toll is much higher than reported and was reported as other causes.

Until a vaccine is widely available, I don't see any prudent path to opening up the economy.

Doctors and nurses opened up an ICU unit in a Toronto hospital to the media to show what is going on.......and to beg people to STAY HOME.

They have all they can handle already and don't need people gathering for a picnic.


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> The protests all popped up about the same time. They all registered their domain names and social media on the exact same dates. They all have similar copy pasta descriptions.
> 
> They all seem to be coordinated by central 'misinformation' campaigns. Most of them seem to lead back to gun rights activists in the US. In my area it's the same people that will protest anything
> 
> Dig a litter deeper and you probably find foreign influences. Whoever the crazy angry group happens to be. Even wexit protesters have been traced back to foreign influences
> 
> The vast majority do not support these fringe groups


The same people always tend to accuse Soros of being behind every opposition or global ill. I tend to think that people often to accuse others of what they are guilty of themselves. So the same right that complains about Soros astroturfing (funding faux grassroots movements to parrot an institutional narrative) is probably engaging in it heavily themselves.


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> The same people always tend to accuse Soros of being behind every opposition or global ill. I tend to think that people often to accuse others of what they are guilty of themselves. So the same right that complains about Soros astroturfing (funding faux grassroots movements to parrot an institutional narrative) is probably engaging in it heavily themselves.


Foreign agencies will often influence both sides at the same time to fuel division

But yes to be fair the west does the same thing, and probably wrote the book


----------



## andrewf

Same people also probably pose as right-wing Russia intervention skeptics.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Given how severe the virus affects even middle aged folks, it is likely the death toll is much higher than reported and was reported as other causes.
> 
> Until a vaccine is widely available, I don't see any prudent path to opening up the economy.
> 
> Doctors and nurses opened up an ICU unit in a Toronto hospital to the media to show what is going on.......and to beg people to STAY HOME.
> 
> They have all they can handle already and don't need people gathering for a picnic.


You keep saying until a vaccine is available. I keep asking what if we never get a vaccine.

You say the death toll is much higher than reported, if that's the case, who in Ontario is dying and being misreported.
Do you really think the 10% death rate in Ontario is "wrong"?





COVID‑19


Find COVID‑19 (coronavirus) information and resources for individuals, employees, business owners and employers. Book a vaccine and stay up-to-date with public health advice.




covid-19.ontario.ca




What about the 20% on worldometers








Coronavirus Update (Live): 123,042,823 Cases and 2,715,771 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




www.worldometers.info





What do you think the real death rate is?

Also crime is increasing.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/crime-data-during-covid-19-shows-spike-in-business-break-ins-stunt-driving-1.5539331










A New Covid-19 Crisis: Domestic Abuse Rises Worldwide (Published 2020)


Movement restrictions aimed to stop the spread of the coronavirus may be making violence in homes more frequent, more severe and more dangerous.




www.nytimes.com




Myself I'm very concerned about the spike in domestic violence, I'm concerned that it will get much worse if we have years of lockdowns as recommended by sags.

I think that if it is at all possible to relax the lockdowns *SAFELY*, we should. 

The Chinese plan of "no new cases, open up" appears to be a bad plan. 
I want a better plan here.

Because people often misunderstand what I"m saying I'll try to summarize simply.
1. I want a plan to relax the lockdowns safely, based on the current science.
a. It does not have to be a single plan, it can have multiple contingencies, or phases.
b. a plan with a vaccine plan is ok.
c. I also want a plan if a vaccine is not created.
d. I want a plan that considers the possibility that herd immunity does not exist, or is short lived, or limited.
e. I think it should be staged and have quarantines for those travelling from uncontrolled areas. (ie outside of the "clean zone")

If anyone thinks that's unreasonable, I'd like to know why.


----------



## sags

Anyone who passed away that were never tested for COVID, had their death attributed to other causes. 

Nobody knows what the fatality rate is because of a lack of testing on both the living and the dead.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Foreign agencies will often influence both sides at the same time to fuel division
> 
> But yes to be fair the west does the same thing, and probably wrote the book


People meddle all the time, but these days, I think Russia/Putin are political/propaganda masters.
I understand that it's much more complex than anyone realizes, but Russia managed to invade Ukraine and seize Crimea.

I don't think the west has been nearly as successful, if so, we totally f$#$#d up in Iraq.
If I were to read a book, I'd like the Russian version please.


----------



## sags

If there is no vaccine or treatment, one thing we can do is develop better PPE. As it is, we aren't even supplying the most basic protection.

I am not sure why surgical masks or even N95 masks are considered the best we could ever design and manufacture.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Anyone who passed away that were never tested for COVID, had their death attributed to other causes.
> 
> Nobody knows what the fatality rate is because of a lack of testing on both the living and the dead.


Not true, New York specifically has been classifying untested deaths wtih COVID symptoms as COVID.
Some claim this is overreporting deaths due to COVID.

Additionally some people are dying from other things at a greater rate as they delay getting medical care due to fears of COVID19.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> If there is no vaccine or treatment, one thing we can do is develop better PPE. As it is, we aren't even supplying the most basic protection.
> 
> I am not sure why surgical masks or even N95 masks are considered the best we could ever design and manufacture.


This isn't an "if", it's a fact, there is no vaccine or effective treatment

Also we do have better PPE than N95 masks.


----------



## m3s

Western foreign influence, although in decline more recently, is far further reaching than a nearby peninsula or an overt military campaign (that toppled a regime and its control of oil)

We constantly hear about russian meddling but you have to dig a lot deeper to find the western meddling (never referred to as meddling to start with) Others have improved on western methods

Are blue COVID toes for real? Red eyes apparently as well? Regardless of accuracy fatality rate among elderly is significant (+20% of confirmed here)


----------



## sags

A new chart and contact tracing has been released that shows the early spread of COVID in China.

Patient 0 (infected) was sitting at a table with other guests. Everyone at his table was infected, and there were infections at the adjacent tables in all directions.

They discovered an operating air conditioning duct located behind patient 0 and the virus droplets were spread by the air current from the air conditioning.

It appears the 6 feet distancing may not be enough where there is any air movement. It proves the virus can travel longer distances than thought.

It also shows that any notion people can gather safely in restaurants or any public places with current social distancing recommendations, isn't possible.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Not true, New York specifically has been classifying untested deaths wtih COVID symptoms as COVID.
> Some claim this is overreporting deaths due to COVID.
> 
> Additionally some people are dying from other things at a greater rate as they delay getting medical care due to fears of COVID19.


this makes it look like overall deaths around the world are up....can’t say for certain they are due to covid, but it does look alarming.









The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)


Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.



www.nytimes.com


----------



## sags

_Are blue COVID toes for real? Red eyes apparently as well? Regardless of accuracy fatality rate among elderly is significant (+20% of confirmed here)_

Low oxygen levels will turn the skin blue in color. The virus also causes high fever, high blood pressure (perhaps the red eyes) and atrial fibrillation, nerve and brain issues.

Atrial fibrillation is dangerous (I had it since I was 35). If not controlled by drugs, it can lead to strokes. I was controlled well by drugs until I had a cardiac ablation 6 months ago.

Emergency doctors have been reporting all kinds of problems produced by COVID. It isn't just a respiratory disease like the common flu.

And now this.......unusual blood clotting. The nurses see it clotting in the IV line as they put it in.......yikes, it is like a zombie virus.









Doctors try to untangle why they're seeing 'unprecedented' blood clotting among Covid-19 patients | CNN


"The number of clotting problems I'm seeing in the ICU, all related to Covid-19, is unprecedented," one New York doctor said in an email to CNN. "Blood clotting problems appear to be widespread in severe Covid."




www.cnn.com


----------



## sags

My idea of safer, more practical PPE is a mask shaped like an N95 that is a hard plastic shell. The shell could be removed and washed (or dropped into a bucket of soapy water) and continually re-used. For breathing, the hard plastic shell could have a breathing tube (snorkel) extending up (higher than the level were COVID would be located) and be fitted with a filter to be extra safe.

There is no way that 400 million people in Canada and the US can have a continual supply of non reusable masks. It would require billions of masks each day.

Whatever is developed has to be washable, reusable, practical to wear, and safe. As of now, we have no such PPE.


----------



## MrMatt

sags,


sags said:


> A new chart and contact tracing has been released that shows the early spread of COVID in China.
> 
> Patient 0 (infected) was sitting at a table with other guests. Everyone at his table was infected, and there were infections at the adjacent tables in all directions.
> 
> They discovered an operating air conditioning duct located behind patient 0 and the virus droplets were spread by the air current from the air conditioning.
> 
> It appears the 6 feet distancing may not be enough where there is any air movement. It proves the virus can travel longer distances than thought.
> 
> It also shows that any notion people can gather safely in restaurants or any public places with current social distancing recommendations, isn't possible.


source?
or is this more unfounded trolling?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> My idea of safer, more practical PPE is a mask shaped like an N95 that is a hard plastic shell. The shell could be removed and washed (or dropped into a bucket of soapy water) and continually re-used. For breathing, the hard plastic shell could have a breathing tube (snorkel) extending up (higher than the level were COVID would be located) and be fitted with a filter to be extra safe.
> 
> There is no way that 400 million people in Canada and the US can have a continual supply of non reusable masks. It would require billions of masks each day.
> 
> Whatever is developed has to be washable, reusable, practical to wear, and safe. As of now, we have no such PPE.


hahahaha, you're funny.
Do you know there is a whole range from surgical masks to full biohazard suits, including washable plastic shells with replacable filters.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> this makes it look like overall deaths around the world are up....can’t say for certain they are due to covid, but it does look alarming.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


Realistically most of the seasonally adjusted change in deaths can be attributed to COVID.
Other untreated dieseases may be some, and some causes (car accidents) are lower.

I don't think there is widespread misinformation on deaths, outside of China, Russia and Iran.
The rest of the world is simply dealing with a lack of testing.


----------



## sags

Great, I can put on a biohazard suit, travel to Georgia to get a haircut, tattoo and go bowling.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Great, I can put on a biohazard suit, travel to Georgia to get a haircut, tattoo and go bowling.


As long as you're locked in quarantine for 2 weeks before you are loose in Canada.

Care to answer your plan for reopening, or are you still hoping that a scientific breakthrough will solve all our problems.


I honestly think a lot of lefties see this as a great opportunity to push their new agenda.
So far this lockdown has gotten millions dependant on handouts from the government for basic living expenses.
Given the police unprecedented powers to stop, detain and fine people.

It's their government dependant, police state dream.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> I think the city/health unit should decide if it makes sense, and see about relaxing.
> 
> Maybe a few people could get some work done, we need people working to pay for all of this.
> Realistically, being within an hour of any place with an outbreak is problematic, I think 2 hours or more of separation and some sort of limited access is required to be reasonably safe ...


YMMV ... I can remember lots of people who were driving two plus hours to their job in Toronto. A fair number got sick of the commute and moved into Toronto ... but unless the health authority knows the patterns, I'm not sure two hours is enough for that particular area.

There's other areas where one hour would be plenty.


A simple rule may not be all that great an idea.


Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> YMMV ... I can remember lots of people who were driving two plus hours to their job in Toronto. A fair number got sick of the commute and moved into Toronto ... but unless the health authority knows the patterns, I'm not sure two hours is enough for that particular area.
> 
> There's other areas where one hour would be plenty.
> 
> 
> A simple rule may not be all that great an idea.
> 
> 
> Cheers


I agree, I think any plan will have to account for a large number of factors.
That's why I want a realistic plan.


----------



## Longtimeago

Well, here's the good news people. I don't see anyone in this forum saying, 'it's all a hoax, we should go back to normal today'. Thank goodness we live in Canada and not the USA is all I can say. 

I have no doubt the majority of Canadians favour a staged opening WHEN the Public Health people tell us we can start doing that. As for a specific plan, I think that is very hard to define. I expect we may have to adopt a 'trial and error' approach to begin with.

The biggest issue is how we will be able to keep 'clear areas' separated from 'not clear' areas. For example if MrMatt and Sags area of London were to be declared 'clear', how do you keep people from Toronto out if it is still 'not clear'?

There is no use calling for a 'realistic plan' if you cannot anticipate all the potential variables up front and I do not think we can do that. There will be 'unintended consequences' that we will only discover after something is relaxed and that will probably result in a 'trial and error' method having to be adopted.

No plan is likely to work from day 1, so no plan other than an initial trial plan is possible.


----------



## sags

How do you open a business if you don't have employees, customers or can't get supplies ? It isn't as simple as turning the sign from closed to open.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Well, here's the good news people. I don't see anyone in this forum saying, 'it's all a hoax, we should go back to normal today'. Thank goodness we live in Canada and not the USA is all I can say.
> 
> I have no doubt the majority of Canadians favour a staged opening WHEN the Public Health people tell us we can start doing that. As for a specific plan, I think that is very hard to define. I expect we may have to adopt a 'trial and error' approach to begin with.
> 
> The biggest issue is how we will be able to keep 'clear areas' separated from 'not clear' areas. For example if MrMatt and Sags area of London were to be declared 'clear', how do you keep people from Toronto out if it is still 'not clear'?
> 
> There is no use calling for a 'realistic plan' if you cannot anticipate all the potential variables up front and I do not think we can do that. There will be 'unintended consequences' that we will only discover after something is relaxed and that will probably result in a 'trial and error' method having to be adopted.
> 
> No plan is likely to work from day 1, so no plan other than an initial trial plan is possible.


Realistically I don't think you can open London until you fix Toronto.
I don't think massive roadblocks are practical. Again, that's why we need a plan.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Realistically I don't think you can open London until you fix Toronto.
> I don't think massive roadblocks are practical. Again, that's why we need a plan.


I'll say again MrMatt, there is no point in saying we 'need a plan' when coming up with a detailed plan is simply not possible. It will have to be trial and error as we find our way.

Saying about anything, 'we need a solution' but at the same time not being able to offer a solution yourself does not help anyone. People are always very good at naming a problem, 'we don't have a plan' but never as good at offering a solution, 'here is a plan to solve the problem.'

If you decide we have to wait till Toronto is 'fixed' before opening up the rest of Ontario, tell how you will decide just that one criteria. That is, 'how will you assess Toronto as being 'fixed'? When there are zero cases reported in 14 days would be one way I could see as acceptable. Is there a different way you would assess as being acceptable? Give me an answer, not a question for which you have no answer.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> I'll say again MrMatt, there is no point in saying we 'need a plan' when coming up with a detailed plan is simply not possible. It will have to be trial and error as we find our way.
> 
> Saying about anything, 'we need a solution' but at the same time not being able to offer a solution yourself does not help anyone. People are always very good at naming a problem, 'we don't have a plan' but never as good at offering a solution, 'here is a plan to solve the problem.'
> 
> If you decide we have to wait till Toronto is 'fixed' before opening up the rest of Ontario, tell how you will decide just that one criteria. That is, 'how will you assess Toronto as being 'fixed'? When there are zero cases reported in 14 days would be one way I could see as acceptable. Is there a different way you would assess as being acceptable? Give me an answer, not a question for which you have no answer.


That's what we need to figure out.
I think that no new cases in 14 days is good, but there is then an incentive to not get tested.

I'm just arguing we need A plan, while others want no plan at all.


----------



## ian

Does anyone really think that our public health specialists are trying to elongate this closed economy and that they too do not want this to end? Do you think that our health care professionals who are putting themselves, and often their families, in danger every day want to see this situation continue simply because a minority of self centered individuals who possess absolutely no medical or professional training in public health want it to end prematurely?

This scourge is not over. Nor is the direction certain. The best that they can do is set out the basic requirements for moving toward normalcy. That is all that is possible at the moment. Once a number of those basic requirements are met they can start the planning process in preparation for the time when all of the conditions have been met.


----------



## like_to_retire

MrMatt said:


> I honestly think a lot of lefties see this as a great opportunity to push their new agenda.
> So far this lockdown has gotten millions dependent on handouts from the government for basic living expenses.
> Given the police unprecedented powers to stop, detain and fine people.
> 
> It's their government dependant, police state dream.


.

I tend to agree with you Mr Matt. The socialists have certainly embraced this situation to its fullest. I only hope we can dial them back when it's all over, but I have my doubts. I get fearful when it's taken so far as discussing passing a law dictating what people can and cannot say about COVID-19, or when I read about people reporting on their neighbours over violations of COVID-19 rules. 
Even our parliament isn't properly operating, so we have our leader simply making speeches every day without the ability to question his actions while in the background he seems to print money.

I read a couple decent articles in the Post today that voice some valid concerns.

Let's not double down on the Nanny state
_"Don’t believe it? Look around. Already there are calls for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit ( CERB) to become a universal basic income. Taxes of all kinds will go up. Strategic industries may be nationalized or protected. Governments will demand ideological fealty. The application for the Canada Emergency Business Account ( CEBA) requires businesses to pledge their compliance with politically loaded requirements to qualify for state support."
"Societies dominated by state bureaucracies forget where prosperity comes from. Policy- makers talk of restarting the economy as though “the economy” has switches and controls. But markets are more like ecosystems than machines."_

All this debt won't be painless
_"Although we have been running relatively modest federal, provincial and local public deficits up to this year our gross public debt is now expected to hit 110 per cent of GDP in 2020."_

ltr


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> That's what we need to figure out.
> I think that no new cases in 14 days is good, but there is then an incentive to not get tested.
> 
> I'm just arguing we need A plan, while others want no plan at all.


the chief medical officer in Ontario said yesterday that “no new daily cases” isn’t gonna happen. At least anytime this year. A reporter pushed him for a number of new cases that he’d be comfortable with before allowing easing of restrictions. He said 200 and more likely less than that.


----------



## m3s

How about opting in to voluntary anonymous contact tracing in exchange for some freedom of movement

You install an app/carry a device that communicates via bluetooth with nearby devices. When a person notices symptoms, they voluntarily tick them off in the app. The app informs past contacts and public health anonymously

When a person is confirmed COVID-19 positive - health care quarantines your device and recent contacts devices for x days

If your contact tracing app shows you are clear you can work and relax some social distancing. Otherwise the device zaps you like a dog training collar

Refusing to use the app results in public shaming, people throwing their dirty masks at you, and/or coughing in your general direction


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> People meddle all the time, but these days, I think Russia/Putin are political/propaganda masters.
> I understand that it's much more complex than anyone realizes, but Russia managed to invade Ukraine and seize Crimea.
> 
> I don't think the west has been nearly as successful, if so, we totally f$#$#d up in Iraq.
> If I were to read a book, I'd like the Russian version please.


I think Russia had less resources to work with but made up for it in creativity and ingenuity. They have been brilliant in exploiting the West's weaknesses. Not really sure what is in it for them, beyond keeping the west preoccupied lets them get away with smash and grab antics like Crimea.


----------



## Longtimeago

m3s said:


> How about opting in to voluntary anonymous contact tracing in exchange for some freedom of movement
> 
> You install an app/carry a device that communicates via bluetooth with nearby devices. When a person notices symptoms, they voluntarily tick them off in the app. The app informs past contacts and public health anonymously
> 
> When a person is confirmed COVID-19 positive - health care quarantines your device and recent contacts devices for x days
> 
> If your contact tracing app shows you are clear you can work and relax some social distancing. Otherwise the device zaps you like a dog training collar
> 
> Refusing to use the app results in public shaming, people throwing their dirty masks at you, and/or coughing in your general direction


Gee m3s, what world do you live in? In my world, not everyone is even computer literate never mind all using apps. I know people who won't even use a credit card, want nothing to do with the internet or computers and have no idea what something like GPS stands for.


----------



## MrMatt

ian said:


> Does anyone really think that our public health specialists are trying to elongate this closed economy and that they too do not want this to end?


Yes and no.
I do believe there are malicious actors who want to use this to further political objectives.
There is evidence of this worldwide, from Trudeau trying to seize power for 2 years, to AOC reproposing the Green New Deal, and other groups advocating for a "Fair and Green restart to the economy" (I am paraphrasing)

In general I don't think it's malicious.
I think it's a focus on their area of expertise. I just want to know that the decision makers are considering all the factors in their decision. There are some thinking that COVID19 should take priority over everything, which in my opinion is ridiculous. 
We have decided that essential services, such as food and health care are worth the risk vs COVID19 exposure. I think we can all agree that is a reasonable trade off.
I think we can all agree that prohibiting international travel is also an appropriate trade off.

However in between those two extremes we all agree on, there are a lot of smaller trade offs I think we should discuss.

I think it's good that Ontario allows you to buy seeds and fruit plants, Michigan does not.
I want those types of trade offs to be discussed.

As I've said previously, I think they're doing a good job and making appropriate trade offs. I'd just like to see a better and more developed plan.

Looking at London, our community spread over the weekend is near zero, maybe it's ok to buy renovation materials from Home depot so we're using this downtime productively.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> My idea of safer, more practical PPE is a mask shaped like an N95 that is a hard plastic shell. The shell could be removed and washed (or dropped into a bucket of soapy water) and continually re-used. For breathing, the hard plastic shell could have a breathing tube (snorkel) extending up (higher than the level were COVID would be located) and be fitted with a filter to be extra safe.
> 
> There is no way that 400 million people in Canada and the US can have a continual supply of non reusable masks. It would require billions of masks each day.
> 
> Whatever is developed has to be washable, reusable, practical to wear, and safe. As of now, we have no such PPE.


If everyone were breathing through a snorkel then the virus would be above us. Probably not a great idea.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Realistically most of the seasonally adjusted change in deaths can be attributed to COVID.
> Other untreated dieseases may be some, and some causes (car accidents) are lower.
> 
> I don't think there is widespread misinformation on deaths, outside of China, Russia and Iran.
> The rest of the world is simply dealing with a lack of testing.


Given that the shutdown has probably saved lives in other ways, if overall mortality is up that likely means there are a lot of undetected covid deaths. Just the improvement in air quality and reduction in road accidents will result in many fewer deaths.


----------



## m3s

Longtimeago said:


> Gee m3s, what world do you live in? In my world, not everyone is even computer literate never mind all using apps.


They can continue to practice social distancing or move in with a luddite community then. This is in exchange for relaxed social distancing



andrewf said:


> Not really sure what is in it for them, beyond keeping the west preoccupied lets them get away with smash and grab antics like Crimea.


They sell billions in military tech every year, 2nd only to the USA. The military industries benefit each other financially and politically in many ways domestic and foreign

NATO was in decline and massive budget cuts up until the crimea escapade


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Looking at London, our community spread over the weekend is near zero, maybe it's ok to buy renovation materials from Home depot so we're using this downtime productively.


Well you can currently get home delivery or pick up of such items from Home Hardware MrMatt so I don't see anything stopping anyone from doing so.

However allowing people back INTO the store is a different thing altogether. That's when they start browsing the new patio furniture, sitting in them, touching everything, having other people walking around in the store, all increasing the possibility of infection to the customers and staff. This is the reason why Home Depot, Staples, etc. were shut down.

You don't need to be allowed to go INTO the store to do home renovations at HOME MrMatt do you. If HomeDepot asks to be allowed to do curbside pickup and home delivery of renovation materials, I'd be fine with saying, yes, go ahead. If they asked to be allowed to do it for patio furniture and barbecues? Umm, maybe but it is then starting to tend towards things that aren't really necessary isn't it. Slippery slope.

How many people who go into a PC Superstore today do you think aren't also checking out the clothes for sale from the Joe Fresh brand? Or how many going into Walmart are only going in for groceries and not browsing the rest of the store?


----------



## Money172375

Home Depot is open for curb side pick up in my area..Ontario. Don’t think they are restricting any products. Their pick up procedures are very organized. Multiple numbered parking lots and spots. One way car traffic. Had to pick up some softener salt.


----------



## Longtimeago

The best and the worst always show up.

Imagine assaulting a 92 year old Asian man and blaming him for Covid19.








Suspect wanted in hate-crime assault of 92-year-old Asian man in Vancouver - BC | Globalnews.ca


Police are looking for the suspect who is believed to have assaulted the man on March 13 near Nanaimo Street and East 1st Avenue.




globalnews.ca





Imagine starting up a SCAM funding page for the families of the NS shooting victims.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/beware-of-fake-ns-shooting-charity-campaigns-rcmp-warns-1.5541570



On the plus side:








Central Fresh Market commended for helping hungry shoplifter


A post on social media pointed a spotlight on the store's kindness




www.kitchenertoday.com


----------



## ian

I have been in Costco twice in the past month. Both times the middle aisles with clothing, etc. we completely empty. I picked a pair of Kirkland jeans because they were on a bunker facing the main aisle up to the cash.


----------



## Money172375

__





Province Announces Re-Open Saskatchewan Plan | News and Media | Government of Saskatchewan


Today, Premier Scott Moe and Saskatchewan's Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Saqib Shahab announced the Re-Open Saskatchewan plan.



www.saskatchewan.ca





good read here on what we may expect a re-opening to look like in Canada. Keep in mind, Sask. Has around 300 cases total. Ontario had 600 yesterday alone. I fear the re-opening is farther away and will take longer than I thought.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Province Announces Re-Open Saskatchewan Plan | News and Media | Government of Saskatchewan
> 
> 
> Today, Premier Scott Moe and Saskatchewan's Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Saqib Shahab announced the Re-Open Saskatchewan plan.
> 
> 
> 
> www.saskatchewan.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> good read here on what we may expect a re-opening to look like in Canada. Keep in mind, Sask. Has around 300 cases total. Ontario had 600 yesterday alone. I fear the re-opening is farther away and will take longer than I thought.


Sask is less than 10% the population of Ontario.

I'm not too concerned about the timeline, just that they have a plan.
The thing that really drives me crazy is the people who think COVID19 is more important than "the economy", not realizing that "the economy" is all the stuff that keeps us alive.

They're looking at potentially hundreds of millions dying from COVID19 "side effects".
World risks 'biblical' famines due to pandemic - UN


That's my concern, I'm not willing to sacrifice tens or hundreds of millions of lives to save a few thousand from COVID19.


----------



## sags

If one was to start an experiment on opening up, Saskatchewan is a good place to start. Low population and big spaces. 

I talked to my brother in law out there and the farmers are still going to plant. They work largely by themselves or with only a helper anyways.

Saskatchewan is also unique in that a small population going to work has a huge impact on the economy and food supply.

Ontario will be a different nut to crack. How do you control some people living in high rise condos going out to work and not infecting others in the buildings ?


----------



## andrewf

Farmers everywhere are going to plant. Or we all have much bigger things to worry about than COVID-19.


----------



## sags

Oy vey........Trump muses that injecting disinfectants, heat and light could be cures for COVID.

This is the leader of the free world folks. The most powerful man in the world is a lunatic.









‘Jaw-Dropping’: Trump Slammed for Touting Dangerous New Virus Treatments After Favored Drug Is Discredited


The president used his daily coronavirus briefing to suggest UV light, humidity and disinfectants could be used to treat the virus.




www.thedailybeast.com


----------



## sags

Social media is lighting up with the Trump mental meltdown.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1253474772702429189


----------



## sags

While Trump talks nonsense, this is what nurses are dealing with in the real world.

_Both my patients died today. Back to back codes. My face hurts, but my heart hurts worse._

_https://twitter.com/mpirotteRN/status/1253120874993106944/photo/1_


----------



## Eclectic12

ian said:


> I have been in Costco twice in the past month. Both times the middle aisles with clothing, etc. we completely empty. I picked a pair of Kirkland jeans because they were on a bunker facing the main aisle up to the cash.


Interesting .... I've been in twice in the last three weeks. 

Everything including clothing looked to be stocked as usual, except for the list of items they didn't have (i.e. gloves, wipes of any kind, yard waste bags). TP was the only in stock item that the pallet was depleted for ... but I didn't need it or stick around to see if another pallet would be brought out.

Cheers


----------



## ian

The middle aisles at Costco were very well stocked. It just that the area was empty of shoppers. 

I picked up a bag of flour for my neighbour (We call each other prior to going out to see if we can pick something up for one another). There was lots of flour but I was surprised to see a pallet loaded with flour at the end of the aisle in addition to it's normal location. Lots and lots of flour here. We are told the issue for bakers is yeast. Several kinds of TP stocked to the rafters. Only thing we have not been able to source at Costco has been frozen veg....corn and peas.


----------



## cainvest

ian said:


> Only thing we have not been able to source at Costco has been frozen veg....corn and peas.


That's the same at my Costco, frozen veggies (corn,peas,mixed) are gone but they had broccoli last time I was in.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Sask is less than 10% the population of Ontario.
> 
> I'm not too concerned about the timeline, just that they have a plan.
> The thing that really drives me crazy is the people who think COVID19 is more important than "the economy", not realizing that "the economy" is all the stuff that keeps us alive.
> 
> They're looking at potentially hundreds of millions dying from COVID19 "side effects".
> World risks 'biblical' famines due to pandemic - UN
> 
> 
> That's my concern, I'm not willing to sacrifice tens or hundreds of millions of lives to save a few thousand from COVID19.


MrMatt, you've made your concerns very clear. 

Now let me remind you that I and others like me who are over 60 and may also have other high risk factors, MADE the world YOU live in. It is the generations who fought in WW2 and their children who made the world you have grown up in. 

So here's what I suggest. If we decide Covid19 is important enough that it totally collapses the economy to the level it was just after WW2 when things like butter or eggs were rationed in many countries and economies in countries like Germany or Italy meant you could buy a woman's body for a pack of cigarettes or a loaf of bread, then so be it.

Once it's over, then YOU can build the country back up to where it was and your children can then enjoy the fruits of YOUR labour. You didn't build this world, I did and you need to show some respect and gratefulness. Instead what I see is you think you should just throw us away for YOUR benefit.


----------



## sags

I am pretty confident that with all the world's resources and tens of billions of dollars being spent, they will find a treatment, vaccine or cure for the virus.

It will take time for clinical trials, so I figure maybe by 2021 something will be available. Until then, there isn't much to do except carry on as we are.


----------



## m3s

TSN turning point in western society


----------



## sags

The commander in chief.......

I hope they have a fake "suitcase" to hand him when he demands the nuclear codes because he wants to nuke the virus.

They could fill it with Legos to distract him. "I can build great things out of these, better than anyone ever has, wonderful things, the best things".....


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt, you've made your concerns very clear.
> 
> Now let me remind you that I and others like me who are over 60 and may also have other high risk factors, MADE the world YOU live in. It is the generations who fought in WW2 and their children who made the world you have grown up in.
> 
> So here's what I suggest. If we decide Covid19 is important enough that it totally collapses the economy to the level it was just after WW2 when things like butter or eggs were rationed in many countries and economies in countries like Germany or Italy meant you could buy a woman's body for a pack of cigarettes or a loaf of bread, then so be it.
> 
> Once it's over, then YOU can build the country back up to where it was and your children can then enjoy the fruits of YOUR labour. You didn't build this world, I did and you need to show some respect and gratefulness. Instead what I see is you think you should just throw us away for YOUR benefit.


No.
Just because you're old doesn't give your vote any more power than mine. 
If there is a complete economic collapse, do you realize this will hit the older people with health conditions, such as yourself much harder than myself. 
If anything the fact that you think buying a womans body for a loaf of bread is acceptable situation is disgusting.

If you think that my concerns are for the young and healthy you don't understand them at all.
I'm concerned about the more vulnerable people who will suffer and die, unless we maintain our ability to care for them.

I want a responsible plan for YOUR benefit and everyone elses.

1. No plan will kill millions.
2. A bad plan will kill millions
3. A good plan might kill fewer.


----------



## ian

Lots of frozen broccoli at our Costco....but I do not eat the stuff.


----------



## sags

Matt.......if the situation is the same in December, I will start to join you on the sidelines, but until then I think we stay the course.

There are ways to deal with the extra debt and that can be handled later.

I do agree everyone should receive the CERB because everyone is going to have to help pay the debt.

It would remove bitterness for people who didn't receive anything. We haven't got a dime.....no CERB, no kids, no students, no HST, no nothing.

We won't be bitter as we don't need the money, but we will certainly have to help pay it back.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I am pretty confident that with all the world's resources and tens of billions of dollars being spent, they will find a treatment, vaccine or cure for the virus.
> 
> It will take time for clinical trials, so I figure maybe by 2021 something will be available. Until then, there isn't much to do except carry on as we are.


Hows that HIV vaccine coming?

Coronavirus is expected to be somewhere between the Flu and HIV.

2021 is dreaming, it's possible, but very very unlikely.


----------



## sags

Remember that never before has a vaccine been sought on such a mass global scale. Every scientist in the world is looking for cure.

The computing capacity and AI technology have also advanced far ahead of what was available decades ago. There is a vaccine or cure, they just have to find it.

The time delay will mostly be for testing and there likely will be a wide array of possible vaccines/treatements to test. They won't rely on just one.


----------



## sags

I worry about reports that Ebola is breaking out again in Africa. That is the last thing the world needs right now.


----------



## sags

I heard the sound of lawnmowers. Looked out and the guys are cutting the grass in the park behind our back fence.

A bit of normalcy is a welcome change. In a year, this will all be a bad memory, I hope.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Remember that never before has a vaccine been sought on such a mass global scale. Every scientist in the world is looking for cure.
> 
> The computing capacity and AI technology have also advanced far ahead of what was available decades ago. There is a vaccine or cure, they just have to find it.
> 
> The time delay will mostly be for testing and there likely will be a wide array of possible vaccines/treatements to test. They won't rely on just one.


They've spent billions over decades for HIV, and they still don't have a vaccine, even with all those fancy tools.

Putting all our eggs in the vaccine bucket is quite simply irresponsible.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

MrMatt said:


> They've spent billions over decades for HIV, and they still don't have a vaccine, even with all those fancy tools.


No, but HIV isn't the automatic death sentence it was in the 80's. Great strides have been made like retrovirus therapies. People can live for _decades _with HIV


----------



## Longtimeago

Leave the planning to your elders MrMatt who have the maturity and wisdom to know better than to just keep on repeating, 'we need a good plan.'


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Leave the planning to your elders MrMatt who have the maturity and wisdom to know better than to just keep on repeating, 'we need a good plan.'


Ahh, agism, the discrimination that's still okay.
You don't even know how old I am.

As far as needing a good plan, yes, we need a plan thats better than "wait for a vaccine".
That's wishful thinking and naive.

I've detailed many parts that I think are important, but I guess in your wisdom you chose not to listen. Personally I don't consider ignorance a characteristic of the wise.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> As far as needing a good plan, yes, we need a plan thats better than "wait for a vaccine".


SK has a good plan, let's see how well it works!


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> SK has a good plan, let's see how well it works!


I agree, it's prudent and realistic.

It's also not reactionary to a population with cabin fever.

I just wish people would understand that the economy isn't just scrooge mcduck swimming in his vault.
It's why Canada is in good shape for this, and Africa is is fearing for the worst.


----------



## Thal81

Guys, is anyone else starting to be angry at the government? Every day there's a new announcement about giving another billion dollars to help this or that group of people.... seriously, how deep in the hole can we go? I can understand giving billions to support health care related sectors (hell, please do!) but literally supporting everybody and their cats is insane.

Why did I bother keeping emergency money all these years when the government ends up bailing out the whole country? The economy has been shutdown for about 6 weeks. Can people really not pay bills for a couple months? What will pay for that, my taxes??!

Granted, as a public servant who's still on the payroll, I have it much easier than others. But, as non-essential personnel, I think my job may be on life-support because I can smell drastic cuts coming to the public service next year as we enter a period of austerity. Still, I'm not scared because I practice good personal finance habits. I'm just extremely pissed that I will end-up having to pay for the majority of individuals, corporations and SMEs in the country who don't do the same...


----------



## MrMatt

Thal81 said:


> Guys, is anyone else starting to be angry at the government? Every day there's a new announcement about giving another billion dollars to help this or that group of people.... seriously, how deep in the hole can we go? I can understand giving billions to support health care related sectors (hell, please do!) but literally supporting everybody and their cats is insane.
> 
> Why did I bother keeping emergency money all these years when the government ends up bailing out the whole country? The economy has been shutdown for about 6 weeks. Can people really not pay bills for a couple months? What will pay for that, my taxes??!
> 
> Granted, as a public servant who's still on the payroll, I have it much easier than others. But, as non-essential personnel, I think my job may be on life-support because I can smell drastic cuts coming to the public service next year as we enter a period of austerity. Still, I'm not scared because I practice good personal finance habits. I'm just extremely pissed that I will end-up having to pay for the majority of individuals, corporations and SMEs in the country who don't do the same...


Well Trudeau doesn't understand money, so it can go forever deep.
Nobody has an emergency fund, not even the government.
it's better to spend a month of days handing out random cash and building complicated government programs to create winners and losers, than to simply give everyone $1k.

If you want people to sit at home and do nothing, there is no better plan than UBI.


----------



## Money172375

Are there any Consolidated sources showing how Much various governments around the world have spent (as % gdp) to fight covid?


----------



## sags

Sean Doyle is a big part of "the plan". He is the first patient in the US to be given an experimental vaccine.

He is accepting the risk to himself to find a vaccine. Remember his name and hope it goes well for him.









He signed up for a coronavirus vaccine trial using a method that's never been used in humans. Here's why. | CNN


Sean Doyle signed up for a trial for a coronavirus vaccines that uses new technology to try and reach a vaccine quicker. Experts debate whether these vaccines will work and make it through safety tests or change how we make vaccines forever.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Ahh, agism, the discrimination that's still okay.
> You don't even know how old I am.
> 
> As far as needing a good plan, yes, we need a plan thats better than "wait for a vaccine".
> That's wishful thinking and naive.
> 
> I've detailed many parts that I think are important, but I guess in your wisdom you chose not to listen. Personally I don't consider ignorance a characteristic of the wise.


NO ONE that I know of is saying wait for a vaccine as a total plan. The only questions are around when to start easing up and what to start easing up on. From there as I have already said, it will have to be 'trial and error'. What needs to be in place though is enough testing and contact tracing for them to see what is and is not OK to ease up on. 

Easing restrictions is going to much harder and over a longer term that it took to put restrictions into place. That's the reality. Just because people have a short attention span, get quickly bored and want everything NOW, doesn't mean they can have what they want.

When for example will you personally feel it is safe to fly again MrMatt? Or go to a baseball game in a stadium full of people? You tell me when that will be.


----------



## sags

Relieving restrictions is going to open up the public to mass infection, such as we haven't seen yet.

Only about 5% of the population has immunity, and they don't know if that immunity will last very long.

Everyone who has avoided infection by staying at home will be at risk. Our healthcare system cannot handle that level of pandemic.

We can build ventilators, and manufacture gloves and masks (better than we are), but we can't build doctors and nurses.

This is a highly infectious killer virus. Stay home and stay safe.......a vaccine or treatment is coming.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> NO ONE that I know of is saying wait for a vaccine as a total plan. The only questions are around when to start easing up and what to start easing up on. From there as I have already said, it will have to be 'trial and error'. What needs to be in place though is enough testing and contact tracing for them to see what is and is not OK to ease up on.
> 
> Easing restrictions is going to much harder and over a longer term that it took to put restrictions into place. That's the reality. Just because people have a short attention span, get quickly bored and want everything NOW, doesn't mean they can have what they want.
> 
> When for example will you personally feel it is safe to fly again MrMatt? Or go to a baseball game in a stadium full of people? You tell me when that will be.


PM Trudeau is one person you may have heard of.








No return to ‘normality’ until coronavirus vaccine is available, Trudeau says | Globalnews.ca


"We will have to remain vigilant for at least a year," the prime minister said on Thursday during his news conference on Canada's response to COVID-19.




globalnews.ca




“Normality as it was before will not come back full-on until we get a vaccine for this… That will be a very long way off,”

I'll feel safe when there are effectively no cases in my area.
I don't need a vaccine to feel safe from SARS, the Plaugue, Ebola even though those virii are is still around.

A vaccine would be a nice to have, a treatment would be nice as well.
But trying to suggest we put things on hold for years (like sags suggested) is just irresponsible. 

Lets be clear.
There is NO vaccine today, there will be no vaccine this year, there may NEVER be a vaccine. I think any plan in which a vaccine is a necessary component to move forward is unacceptably naive.

In reality if they create a vaccine once it is widely deployed, risk of spread is limited we should open up. But I'd suggest that once the risk of spread is limited we should open up even without a vaccine.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> I agree, it's prudent and realistic.
> 
> It's also not reactionary to a population with cabin fever.
> 
> I just wish people would understand that the economy isn't just scrooge mcduck swimming in his vault.
> It's why Canada is in good shape for this, and Africa is is fearing for the worst.


I am kind of surprised that SK didn't include a "risk factor" group, as in, give the option to healthy people (under 45?) collecting gov money to return to work with spacing conditions of course. Maybe that would be too dificult to manage? One key point is to make sure they don't get a flood of new cases overwhelming the hospitals as they open things up.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Thal81 said:


> Guys, is anyone else starting to be angry at the government? Every day there's a new announcement about giving another billion dollars to help this or that group of people.... seriously, how deep in the hole can we go? I can understand giving billions to support health care related sectors (hell, please do!) but literally supporting everybody and their cats is insane.
> 
> Why did I bother keeping emergency money all these years when the government ends up bailing out the whole country? The economy has been shutdown for about 6 weeks. Can people really not pay bills for a couple months? What will pay for that, my taxes??!


So true. Our governments reward the indolent, not the diligent. No point in working hard, saving for the future, or for a rainy day. Whatever for, when you can piss it away as fast as it comes in and get a handout when all gone?


----------



## Mukhang pera

And I suppose I am a gullible victim of fake news for thinking that this guy makes some sense:


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> PM Trudeau is one person you may have heard of.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No return to ‘normality’ until coronavirus vaccine is available, Trudeau says | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> "We will have to remain vigilant for at least a year," the prime minister said on Thursday during his news conference on Canada's response to COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “Normality as it was before will not come back full-on until we get a vaccine for this… That will be a very long way off,”
> 
> I'll feel safe when there are effectively no cases in my area.
> I don't need a vaccine to feel safe from SARS, the Plaugue, Ebola even though those virii are is still around.
> 
> A vaccine would be a nice to have, a treatment would be nice as well.
> But trying to suggest we put things on hold for years (like sags suggested) is just irresponsible.
> 
> Lets be clear.
> There is NO vaccine today, there will be no vaccine this year, there may NEVER be a vaccine. I think any plan in which a vaccine is a necessary component to move forward is unacceptably naive.
> 
> In reality if they create a vaccine once it is widely deployed, risk of spread is limited we should open up. But I'd suggest that once the risk of spread is limited we should open up even without a vaccine.


I agree with Trudeau. 'Normality' will not return until we have a vaccine or a cure. Anyone that thinks everything will go back to 'normal' before that is lively in an alternative universe.

So you will feel safe when there are no cases in your 'area'. Define your 'area.' A 50 mile radius, 100, 1000? Then how will you know when that 'area' has been breached? Today you feel safe going out but tomorrow you hear on the news there is a new case in your county, so you stay home tomorrow?

You say when risk of spread is limited. How does risk of spread become limited? We started out with ZERO risk of spread, right up until the first case appeared in Canada. Now where are we? You write as if the same thing can't happen again if it gets away from containment. 

The only way to contain it is by staying home and keeping your distance if you must go out. There is no other way to be sure you will stop another surge. Easing will most likely result in surges in at least some places. The amount of testing and tracing that is done is what will LIMIT the surges, but it won't stop them from happening.

You write about 'risk of spread' as if there is an alternative way to do that other than a vaccine. I guess we should have used that alternative after we had the first case in Canada then. Remind me again what that alternative is other than stay home and keep distancing.

When we ease up we are going to INCREASE risk of spread. There is no way to avoid that MrMatt.


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> And I suppose I am a gullible victim of fake news for thinking that this guy makes some sense:


Mukhang Pera, I watched the first 1.5 minutes and then stopped. I had already seen enough to ascertain that the guy was talking nonsense. A typical example of someone cherry picking, making up 'facts' and offering 'opinions' as if they were facts, to try and justify a viewpoint. All of that I heard in the first 1.5 minutes!

So yes, if you think he makes sense, you are being gullible.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> Mukhang Pera, I watched the first 1.5 minutes and then stopped. I had already seen enough to ascertain that the guy was talking nonsense. A typical example of someone cherry picking, making up 'facts' and offering 'opinions' as if they were facts, to try and justify a viewpoint. All of that I heard in the first 1.5 minutes!
> 
> So yes, if you think he makes sense, you are being gullible.


And you are being gullible to think there will ever be a vaccine. And for the lockdown to succeed, I would say it must be maintained for years, not weeks or months. I can withstand that, with ease. But will those dependent on government handouts manage? Will the handouts keep flowing for years?

Anyway LTA, be thankful that mental midgets like me do not vote in elections.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> I agree with Trudeau. 'Normality' will not return until we have a vaccine or a cure. Anyone that thinks everything will go back to 'normal' before that is lively in an alternative universe.
> 
> So you will feel safe when there are no cases in your 'area'. Define your 'area.' A 50 mile radius, 100, 1000? Then how will you know when that 'area' has been breached? Today you feel safe going out but tomorrow you hear on the news there is a new case in your county, so you stay home tomorrow?
> 
> You say when risk of spread is limited. How does risk of spread become limited? We started out with ZERO risk of spread, right up until the first case appeared in Canada. Now where are we? You write as if the same thing can't happen again if it gets away from containment.
> 
> The only way to contain it is by staying home and keeping your distance if you must go out. There is no other way to be sure you will stop another surge. Easing will most likely result in surges in at least some places. The amount of testing and tracing that is done is what will LIMIT the surges, but it won't stop them from happening.
> 
> You write about 'risk of spread' as if there is an alternative way to do that other than a vaccine. I guess we should have used that alternative after we had the first case in Canada then. Remind me again what that alternative is other than stay home and keep distancing.
> 
> When we ease up we are going to INCREASE risk of spread. There is no way to avoid that MrMatt.


You write as if a COVID19 vaccine is possible. What if it isn't?

I'd like to point out we ended the SARS restrictions without a vaccine.


My whole point, which people seem intent on skipping over. Is that we need a plan that doesn't depend on a scientific breakthrough that may not happen. I'd be thrilled to have a vaccine in 2 years that makes most of this risk go away. But if we don't, I still want a plan.


----------



## Beaver101

Thal81 said:


> Guys, is anyone else starting to be angry at the government? Every day there's a new announcement about giving another billion dollars to help this or that group of people.... seriously, how deep in the hole can we go? I can understand giving billions to support health care related sectors (hell, please do!) but literally supporting everybody and their cats is insane.
> 
> Why did I bother keeping emergency money all these years when the government ends up bailing out the whole country? The economy has been shutdown for about 6 weeks. Can people really not pay bills for a couple months? What will pay for that, my taxes??!
> 
> Granted, as a public servant who's still on the payroll, I have it much easier than others. But, as non-essential personnel, I think my job may be on life-support because I can smell drastic cuts coming to the public service next year as we enter a period of austerity. Still, I'm not scared because I practice good personal finance habits. I'm just extremely pissed that I will end-up having to pay for the majority of individuals, corporations and SMEs in the country who don't do the same...


 ... whoa, what a post. a "public servant who's still on the payroll and royally is pissed at the government ... oxymoronic.


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> And you are being gullible to think there will ever be a vaccine. And for the lockdown to succeed, I would say it must be maintained for years, not weeks or months. I can withstand that, with ease. But will those dependent on government handouts manage? Will the handouts keep flowing for years?
> 
> Anyway LTA, be thankful that mental midgets like me do not vote in elections.


I don't know if there will be a vaccine found or not but I do know there has never been such a worldwide effort with as much financial support given to finding one as at present.

They may or may not find a vaccine or alternatively a cure which would do equally as well. And yes, it may take years to get one or the other. Will we stay in lockdown, I doubt it but some things will never go back to normal anytime soon. Like I asked MrMatt, when will a person feel safe? 

MrMatt keeps banging on about we need a plan. The flaw in that assumption of course is that a plan is possible that works. Why, if people can realize that a vaccine MAY not be found would they assume that a plan CAN be found that works?

What plan for example can be found for an auto manufacturers assembly line that maintains a 6 foot distance between workers. How do you maintain it on an airplane, seat 50 people in a plane designed for 300? How much will a ticket cost? 

There is no 'reset' button to press. If Canada had ZERO new cases tomorrow, we would ONLY be right back where we started. Safe until the first case was reported in the country. Can anyone tell me why what happened after that first case would not simply happen again?

This virus cannot be compared to any other virus such as SARS, etc. SARS was nowhere near as infectious. It was low infection, high mortality. The common flu is high infection, low mortality. This virus is high infection and relatively high mortality. Start at zero and it's everywhere in a month. Get rid of it but with no vaccine or cure and you are only back to 'start at zero and it's everywhere in a month.'

What easing really means is we are going to have to accept certain things as a result. Those that go out and return to 'normal' will have to accept the risk of getting the virus. Those that stay home will have to accept the limitations that puts on their lives but they will have far less risk of getting the virus. NO ONE"S life will be back to 'normal' however. 

I'm already sitting here thinking I may never be able to fly anywhere again in my life. Either the risk will be too high because people are still being seated like sardines or the price for a seat that maintains a 6 foot bubble around me will be astronomical and beyond my ability to pay.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Beaver101 said:


> ... whoa, what a post. a "public servant who's still on the payroll and royally is pissed at the government ... oxymoronic.


The post might contain an element of the oxymoronic, but does that derogate from the ideas expressed in the post? Are the poster's words unworthy of consideration for being uttered by a public servant still on the payroll? Does that render them false, insincere, inappropriately biased?


----------



## sags

I doubt there has ever in history been the laser like focus on one virus or illness.

In normal times, even after the SARS and MER viruses, scientists and companies around the world were involved in a plethora of illnesses.

Today, they are all focused on a COVID vaccine or treatment. Never before has unlimited amounts of money, been designated to one problem.

Never in history has all the computing ability in the word been focused on solving a problem. Never before was AI technology available.

In medical research, this time it is different. I am confident that in time we will have an effective treatment or vaccine.


----------



## sags

Until the day comes that a vaccine or treatment is available, governments must continue to support citizen spending so there is an economy left to revive.


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> I doubt there has ever in history been the laser like focus on one virus or illness.
> 
> In normal times, even after the SARS and MER viruses, scientists and companies around the world were involved in a plethora of illnesses.
> 
> Today, they are all focused on a COVID vaccine or treatment. Never before has unlimited amounts of money, been designated to one problem.
> 
> Never in history has all the computing ability in the word been focused on solving a problem. Never before was AI technology available.
> 
> In medical research, this time it is different.


I suppose we all hope you are right. But I remain doubtful. 

As for focus and single-minded determination, what about cancer? Since I was a kid there has been talk about finding a cure. There have been fundraisers, government research grants, etc. galore. For decade after decade. And just what has been accomplished? Yes, there are some better treatments for some cancers, I'll agree. But despite what I am sure amounts to billions of dollars spent in facilities around the world, and long, long experience with millions of cancer patients, are we anywhere close to a cure? Maybe we are and LTA will enter here and reveal my flawed thinking.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Why, if people can realize that a vaccine MAY not be found would they assume that a plan CAN be found that works?


Plans will work, one way or another, though you might not like the results as much as if there was a vaccine. This might mean an increased risk to your health going forward but the world will move on. We now have better/faster testing (still could be quicker) and protocols in place that we didn't before so that'll help. We definitely need more information on immunity going forward.


----------



## Money172375

In spite of a vaccine, the plan is limited social distancing. If hospitals can handle 200 new cases a day, then we will build distancing models that maintain 200 new cases a day.
without a vaccine, the plan will be to allow us all to be infected, but in a manageable and slow way to allow Hospitals to treat who they can.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> In spite of a vaccine, the plan is limited social distancing. If hospitals can handle 200 new cases a day, then we will build distancing models that maintain 200 new cases a day.
> without a vaccine, the plan will be to allow us all to be infected, but in a manageable and slow way to allow Hospitals to treat who they can.


I hope not, if there is no vaccine, I hope they lock down enough so it's extinguished. If we get down low enough (like SARS today), we can go back to "normal", with a bit more monitoring to watch for another outbreak.

I definitely don't want everyone to get this now, or ever.


----------



## sags

Mukhang pera said:


> I suppose we all hope you are right. But I remain doubtful.
> 
> As for focus and single-minded determination, what about cancer? Since I was a kid there has been talk about finding a cure. There have been fundraisers, government research grants, etc. galore. For decade after decade. And just what has been accomplished? Yes, there are some better treatments for some cancers, I'll agree. But despite what I am sure amounts to billions of dollars spent in facilities around the world, and long, long experience with millions of cancer patients, are we anywhere close to a cure? Maybe we are and LTA will enter here and reveal my flawed thinking.


Yes, there have been decades of research into cancer, and many other medical ailments without the kind of success we hope for.

But, there has never been the almost singular focus on cancer, the way there is on the COVID. There has never been the unlimited funds available before.

Cancer research and all other research is poorly funded and depends a lot on donations and grants.

COVID research has unlimited funds ready for use. A massive amount of computer power can be trained on a singular problem for awhile.

Maybe I am too optimistic, but hope is all we have right now. If all efforts are in vain, then we are f**d anyway you look at it.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> I hope not, if there is no vaccine, I hope they lock down enough so it's extinguished. If we get down low enough (like SARS today), we can go back to "normal", with a bit more monitoring to watch for another outbreak.
> 
> I definitely don't want everyone to get this now, or ever.


I’m no expert but it seems SARS was more more deadly and was less asymptotic. People showed symptoms and died before they could spread it.

covid is dangerous that way....it lies quiet and spreads quickly without symptoms.


----------



## Money172375

Mukhang pera said:


> I suppose we all hope you are right. But I remain doubtful.
> 
> As for focus and single-minded determination, what about cancer? Since I was a kid there has been talk about finding a cure. There have been fundraisers, government research grants, etc. galore. For decade after decade. And just what has been accomplished? Yes, there are some better treatments for some cancers, I'll agree. But despite what I am sure amounts to billions of dollars spent in facilities around the world, and long, long experience with millions of cancer patients, are we anywhere close to a cure? Maybe we are and LTA will enter here and reveal my flawed thinking.


I suspect survival rates are much better for cancer than they were decades ago......sure there are the most lethal versions, but it’s not the death sentence it once was. Similar to AIDS too. A covid treatment could Be just as valuable as a vaccine.

my fear though is that no treatment or vaccine has ever been found for the other human coronaviruses.


----------



## sags

I noticed that Trump has recently taken to referring to COVID as "the plague".

This strikes me of religious connotations, and I doubt Trump has come up with the reference wording given his lack of any religous background.

One wonders if the religious right fanatics.....like VP Mike Pence, have been discussing with Trump the Biblical references to the end of times.

This can be dangerous, as the religious believe that despite whatever comes God will protect the righteous believers.....meaning them.

Since they feel divinely protected, they are less likely to adhere to advice issued by medical or scientific experts.

They also are not motivated to any action that may delay that which they believe is the inevitable end of the world.

To understand that upon which they base their beliefs.........Revelation 6: 1-17 provides a chilling account.









Revelation 6:1-17 And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, one of the four beasts saying, Come and see. And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him | King James Version (KJV) | Download The Bible App Now


And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, one of the four beasts saying, Come and see. And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him



www.bible.com


----------



## Money172375

more bad news.....



https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/


----------



## Money172375

further developments...









Ontario takes 'extraordinary step' to give police list of all COVID-19 patients


A civil liberties group is raising concerns after the Ontario government took the "extraordinary step" to release a database to police with a list of everyone who has tested positive for COVID-19 in the province.



toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## sags

With reports of people claiming to be infected with COVID deliberately coughing and spitting on people and first responders, this is a wise development.

Nobody has the "right" by their actions to risk the lives of other people. It is sad that it is necessary, but apparently it is.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Longtimeago said:


> Mukhang Pera, I watched the first 1.5 minutes and then stopped. I had already seen enough to ascertain that the guy was talking nonsense. A typical example of someone cherry picking, making up 'facts' and offering 'opinions' as if they were facts, to try and justify a viewpoint. All of that I heard in the first 1.5 minutes!
> 
> So yes, if you think he makes sense, you are being gullible.


What facts were made up? Please be specific.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> With reports of people claiming to be infected with COVID deliberately coughing and spitting on people and first responders, this is a wise development.
> 
> Nobody has the "right" by their actions to risk the lives of other people. It is sad that it is necessary, but apparently it is.


If someone says they have COVID19 and starts coughing and spitting, you treat them as if they have COVID19.
It's a privacy violation for no good reason.


I know you won't answer, because you never do, but lets try a hypothetical situation.
Someone is coughing and spitting on people saying they have COVID19.

You check the registry before you arrive.
1. The registry says they are positive for COVID19.
- You put on PPE, treat them as a possible COVID19 case, apprehend, and isolate as required.
2. The registry says they do not know if this person has COVID19.
- You put on PPE, treat them as a possible COVID19 case, apprehend, and isolate as required.


Or would you recommend a different procedure? Maybe giving the unregistered suspects a nice deep kiss?


----------



## sags

Ontario announces a $4 hour increase to essential workers. In addition they will be paid $250 if they work 100 in a month.

Ford praised the Trudeau government for helping with the finances. Ford also called protestors selfish yahoos.

Ford made mistakes with the LTA inspections, but he is making up for it. I will have to reconsider my support of him.


----------



## sags

When is the senior benefit coming ?


----------



## ian

Already there sags...it is called OAS and GIS.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> You write as if a COVID19 vaccine is possible. What if it isn't?
> 
> I'd like to point out we ended the SARS restrictions without a vaccine.
> 
> 
> My whole point, which people seem intent on skipping over. Is that we need a plan that doesn't depend on a scientific breakthrough that may not happen. I'd be thrilled to have a vaccine in 2 years that makes most of this risk go away. But if we don't, I still want a plan.


When Trudeau says 'no return to normality until vaccine', that doesn't mean maximum lockdown until vaccine. I think it is fair to say that until we have a vaccine or most of the population has been infected, even free people will not return to past mode of behaviour (clubs, restaurants, sports events, etc.).


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> When is the senior benefit coming ?


Why do seniors need a benefit? I know you just want more money in your pocket, but what is the rationale? Given that retirees are prevented from travelling, they should be doing better than usual in the circumstances.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> When Trudeau says 'no return to normality until vaccine', that doesn't mean maximum lockdown until vaccine. I think it is fair to say that until we have a vaccine or most of the population has been infected, even free people will not return to past mode of behaviour (clubs, restaurants, sports events, etc.).


You can interpret it any way you want.
I think we can get to normal without a vaccine, and we should have a plan to get to normal without a vaccine.

I think it's lazy and ignorant to say that a vaccine is a precondition. Particularly since the science is clear that this may not be possible.


----------



## andrewf

The only people I have seen seriously suggest we wait for a vaccine to relax distancing are our resident fussbudgets.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ford made mistakes with the LTA inspections, but he is making up for it. I will have to reconsider my support of him.


Yes, I agree, he made a mistake following Liberal Policy, but to be fair, he could only fix so much in the time before this crisis hit.


----------



## andrewf

He made his own mistakes, as well. I don't think the problem with elder care is particularly partisan.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> He made his own mistakes, as well. I don't think the problem with elder care is particularly partisan.


Only to sags, where doing exactly what the Liberals did is a major moral failing.

Sheesh, it isn't like Doug Ford hasn't made mistakes, he has. But to suggest not completing a complete overhaul of the entire government in 18 months is ridiculous.

You do realize that they were engaging in a wholesale restructuring of pretty much the entire Health system, I'd hope them spend more than a few months on that.


----------



## junior minor

Interestingly enough, speaking of developments, I've been scanning the net for possible hypothesis. Along are two other documents (one video and a conference report) that are obviously wildly off actual facts to this day but still have interesting theories in them.





 this is ''history of the world'' 2025 by Jeremy rifkin; the other one is a strategic type of ''simulation'' US Intel,circa 2008 https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/94769/2008_11_Global_Trends_2025.pdf


----------



## sags

It would be prudent to wait until after the upcoming flu season has passed before opening up the economy.

The last thing we need is to have a lot of sick people while doctors offices and medical clinics are closed, and hospitals are dealing with COVID.

It would also be helpful if there was a higher rate of flu vaccinations. We are currently well below the 80% goal.

Stay home to stay safe is the plan for now. We can reconsider the options in the fall.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-pandemic-coronavirus-influenza-flu-1.5544126


----------



## Beaver101

Mukhang pera said:


> The post might contain an element of the oxymoronic, but does that derogate from the ideas expressed in the post? Are the poster's words unworthy of consideration for being uttered by a public servant still on the payroll? Does that render them false, insincere, inappropriately biased?


 ... sorry but all I heard was a self-centered royal RANT there. Nothing false or insincere about that. The only thing I agree with you is the "inappropriately biased" portion. If this non-essential public servant is actually going to achieve anything ... here's a thought (actually suggestion) to start: go B1TCH to your boss who then can go b1tch to his/her boss who can then b1tch all the way up to the PM. Kinda of useless to b1tch here on this forum on your bosses' (aka the "government") policies. Let's see where that gets you ... I'm waiting.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> It would be prudent to wait until after the upcoming flu season has passed before opening up the economy.
> 
> The last thing we need is to have a lot of sick people while doctors offices and medical clinics are closed, and hospitals are dealing with COVID.
> 
> It would also be helpful if there was a higher rate of flu vaccinations. We are currently well below the 80% goal.
> 
> Stay home to stay safe is the plan for now. We can reconsider the options in the fall.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-pandemic-coronavirus-influenza-flu-1.5544126


 ... I hope they keep the flu shot rations the same for the upcoming season(s). Ie. if you never believed in it (for whatever reason) please don't bother to get one.


----------



## Beaver101

Mukhang pera said:


> So true. Our governments reward the indolent, not the diligent. No point in working hard, saving for the future, or for a rainy day. Whatever for, when you can piss it away as fast as it comes in and get a handout when all gone?


 ... here's one better for you MP:

Homeless advocates sue City of Toronto; say shelter spacing violates Charter



> Lawyers from the Advocacy Centre for Tenants Ontario, the Black Legal Action Centre, the HIV & AIDS Legal Clinic Ontario, The Canadian Civil Liberties Association and Aboriginal Legal Services say the close quarters in some Toronto shelters and respite sites violate sections of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, as well as the Ontario Human Rights Code.
> 
> “If we are forced to litigate this issue, we will argue that the City is operating its shelter system and maintaining standards that are discriminatory and violate the right to life and security of the person of shelter residents under sections 7 and 15 of the _Charter of Rights and Freedoms_, and also breach the Ontario _Human Rights Code_,” lawyers wrote in a letter sent to Toronto officials this week. ...


And the latest ... the paperwork has been filed:

Tory calls charter challenge over shelters 'disappointing,' says city's efforts to relocate homeless have been 'epic'



> Lawyers from the Advocacy Centre for Tenants Ontario, the Black Legal Action Centre, the HIV & AIDS Legal Clinic Ontario, The Canadian Civil Liberties Association and Aboriginal Legal Services *filed paperwork with the courts on Friday*, arguing that the close quarters in some Toronto shelters violate the right to life and security of shelter residents under sections 7 and 15 of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, and also breach the Ontario Human Rights Code. ...


And this is despite that:



> ...“*The city has moved over 700 people out of the shelters and into hotels.* That is about 30 a day and at this rate in order to clear out the shelters to a level that is of a basic public health standard we are looking at months and month so we are saying that the courts need to take a look at this, intervene and press the city to allocate all the resources required to make this happen in a rapid and appropriate way,” she said. ...


I think the city has moved more than the above # (700) into hotels by now (and still more to move) ... anymore ideas b1tching?


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> I suppose we all hope you are right. But I remain doubtful.
> 
> As for focus and single-minded determination, what about cancer? Since I was a kid there has been talk about finding a cure. There have been fundraisers, government research grants, etc. galore. For decade after decade. And just what has been accomplished? Yes, there are some better treatments for some cancers, I'll agree. But despite what I am sure amounts to billions of dollars spent in facilities around the world, and long, long experience with millions of cancer patients, are we anywhere close to a cure? Maybe we are and LTA will enter here and reveal my flawed thinking.


Actually Mukhang Pera if you do a little research you will find that the vast majority of cancer research is focused on treatment/cure, not prevention. In the case of a virus like Covid19, they focus on preventing our getting it, that's what a vaccine does n-est ce pas? So there is no real comparison to be made. 








The Cancer Miracle Isn’t a Cure. It’s Prevention.


We cannot treat our way out of the rising trend in cancer cases. The only solution is a full-scale defense, so that nobody suffers the disease in the first place.




www.hsph.harvard.edu





While we have not yet found a cure for all cancers, we have found vaccines to prevent many viruses. To me, that says we have a far better chance of finding a vaccine for Covid19 than we have of finding a cure for cancer.


----------



## Mukhang pera

LTA, as for "no real comparison to be made", I'll agree there is no direct comparison. But, the point is that cancer has been a scourge for humanity since time out of mind, unlike the new kid on the block C-19. For long years now we have talked of wiping it out, whether through prevention, cure, or a multi-faceted approach. More than a few dollars and more than a few fine minds have been applied to the task, yet we have made only modest progress. 

I'll admit to doing not even "a little research" and I have accepted sans question (maybe wrongly) that we have never developed an effective vaccine for the type of virus manifest in C-19. That may be fake news and the non-fake news is that we routinely develop effective vaccines for such viruses, and this time will be no different, it's coming for sure. But still, I am remaining doubtful that all the King's horses and all the King's men will pull the rabbit out of the hat this time.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Plans will work, one way or another, though you might not like the results as much as if there was a vaccine. This might mean an increased risk to your health going forward but the world will move on. We now have better/faster testing (still could be quicker) and protocols in place that we didn't before so that'll help. We definitely need more information on immunity going forward.


To say, 'we need a plan' is not to say, 'we have a plan'. Try thinking through in DETAIL just how you will go about re-opening any business you choose.

I get my hair cut at a unisex salon. There are two cutters, two of those hair dryer type seats and one hair washing station. Total of only 3 workers. But usually a total of say 6-7 people in the space at a given time.

So I walk in, there are some seats to use while you wait. OK, scratch them, take them out. You will arrive at the appointed time and only be let in the locked door when the last customer is being let out. So far so good, distance kept. Once inside however it is not possible to walk from the door to the hair washing station (my first stop) without passing within less than 6 feet of anyone unless there is no one else in there except 1 haircutter and the hairwasher.

So are we going to accept the risk of not maintaining distance or are we going to have a haircutter than works alone on one customer at a time and only have to accept the risk of having to be close to that haircutter? If the haircutter opts for the latter, how does s/he make any money? S/he would be able to serve far less customers per day than they did before.

That's just an example but in most businesses with multiple people either working there or arriving as customers, the choice will be lose physical distancing and take the risks that brings or reduce the number of workers/customers to what the space will allow if you maintain distancing. 

So yes, a plan that 'works' is easy unless you define 'works' as having to maintain distance in which case most plans that 'work' will be unprofitable for the business. It's not just a question of 'you might not like the results', it may be a question of the results are simply not practical.

How do you maintain 6 feet in a restaurant or bar unless you reduce your number of customers drastically. How then will that be profitable?

It's fine to say, 'we need a plan' and 'a plan will work' but pointless if the plan is simply not practical unless you give up all precautions and are back to square one. The devil is in the details as the saying goes. When thinking of a plan for this you have to think of the DETAILS of just how it will work.


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## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> In spite of a vaccine, the plan is limited social distancing. If hospitals can handle 200 new cases a day, then we will build distancing models that maintain 200 new cases a day.
> without a vaccine, the plan will be to allow us all to be infected, but in a manageable and slow way to allow Hospitals to treat who they can.


Unfortunately Money172375, I fear that is the 'plan' some are now looking at. There is no practical way to open most businesses up and still maintain distancing while at the same time keeping a business profitable. So you give up distancing. That will of course result in more infections. Even if you manage spread through testing and tracing, it doesn't mean you stop all infections. The choice was to knowingly allow more infections in order to not have to maintain distancing.

The belief (no proof at present) that herd immunity is a 'plan' that could work is a related scenario. Allow people to become infected and try to maintain that at a manageble number as you say. That will of course kill people while it is going on. There is also no evidence that those infected will have immunity afterwards. In other words, no evidence that herd immunity will actually work since it can't work without immunity.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> To say, 'we need a plan' is not to say, 'we have a plan'. Try thinking through in DETAIL just how you will go about re-opening any business you choose.


Just watch SK and NB to see how things go. Hopefully MB will follow along shortly. I'm sure there will be increased risk but as long a they manage it by the case load all should move forward, albeit slowly if new outbreaks occur. The key point is having the "high risk" people protected and try to keep the curve as flat as possible.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Just watch SK and NB to see how things go. Hopefully MB will follow along shortly. I'm sure there will be increased risk but as long a they manage it by the case load all should move forward, albeit slowly if new outbreaks occur. The key point is having the "high risk" people protected and try to keep the curve as flat as possible.


That's fine cainvest as far as it goes. I do however think a lot of people do not realize that when they are saying, 'open things up', they are also saying, 'increase my personal risk of being infected, I don't care.'

Those like myself who are high risk will know that we cannot change what we are doing unless it is something that opens up but still maintains distancing. I can't see my haircutter going to one customer in at a time and still making any profit unless she starts charging 4 times as much for my haircut.

So again, the devil is in the details. HOW are you going to meet 'the key point is having the "high risk" peole protected'? Does protected mean you can get a haircut if you want to take the risk but I can't? That's not protecting me, that's excluding me. So do we set up a 'high risk' haircutter who deals with only 1 customer at a time and is subsidized in order to allow a profit to be maintained? Ready to protect me with your hand in your pocket? I can hear the howls of outrage now. LOL


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> HOW are you going to meet 'the key point is having the "high risk" peole protected'? Does protected mean you can get a haircut if you want to take the risk but I can't? That's not protecting me, that's excluding me.


Those at high risk can stay home. So yes, you have the choice to exclude yourself or assume the higher risk of getting a haircut.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> While we have not yet found a cure for all cancers, we have found vaccines to prevent many viruses. To me, that says we have a far better chance of finding a vaccine for Covid19 than we have of finding a cure for cancer.


The reason we don't have many cancer vaccines is because they're hard. ( We do have some).

And we've been unable to create vaccines for many viruses.. like Coronaviruses.

Given that we have ZERO Coronavirus vaccines, and we do have vaccines to prevent certain cancers, I think your "better chance" contradicts the facts.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Those at high risk can stay home. So yes, you have the choice to exclude yourself or assume the higher risk of getting a haircut.


That answer won't fly for me cainvest. You wrote, "_The key point is having the "high risk" people protected and try to keep the curve as flat as possible."_

You didn't write, have a plan to open things but exclude the high risk people from that plan. So you are saying, we will open things but only for SOME people. OK, that's a plan alright but it isn't a plan to open things that 'protects' high risk people. Just a plan that excludes them. You call that a 'key point'?

So which is it, you want a plan to open things in a way that protects high risk people or a plan to open things that excludes them?

I'm don't want to exclude myself from getting a haircut but it sounds like you are thinking of a plan that will exclude me in how you open them. Why not think of a plan to open them that will include me? You write, _"Those at high risk can stay home." _That's your plan for how to 'open things'?


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> That answer won't fly for me cainvest. You wrote, "_The key point is having the "high risk" people protected and try to keep the curve as flat as possible."_
> 
> You didn't write, have a plan to open things but exclude the high risk people from that plan. So you are saying, we will open things but only for SOME people. OK, that's a plan alright but it isn't a plan to open things that 'protects' high risk people. Just a plan that excludes them. You call that a 'key point'?
> 
> So which is it, you want a plan to open things in a way that protects high risk people or a plan to open things that excludes them?


Doesn't matter if it "won't fly" for you ... that's what some of the provinces are doing, you don't have to like it. As you're said, many, many, many times .... STAY HOME. 

Do you think they'll change their plans because poor old LTA doesn't feel safe about getting a haircut ... lmao.

I off to go dirt bike riding ... see you tomorrow!


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## sags

There are many potential vaccines already developed. The problem is finding enough volunteers that fit the criteria for broad scale clinical testing.

It will take time, but I am confident a vaccine will be developed. The researchers and scientists have the resolve that will lead to success.

In the meantime, there is significant research into a treatment protocol, which would not prevent infection but would reduce the severity of the symptoms.

Patience is our best defense, but it requires the resolve to endure. It seems that some lack the same level of resolve as the scientists possess.


----------



## Retired Peasant

sags said:


> It would be prudent to wait until after the upcoming flu season has passed before opening up the economy.
> 
> The last thing we need is to have a lot of sick people while doctors offices and medical clinics are closed, and hospitals are dealing with COVID.


The coming flu season may not be as bad as usual, given that people are (perhaps) more conscientious about washing their hands


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> It will take time, but I am confident a vaccine will be developed. The researchers and scientists have the resolve that will lead to success.


You're still assuming a vaccine is possible. It isn't a question of money or will, it's a question of possibility.
People have been working really hard on perpetual motion machines too. I'm not holding my breath.


----------



## agent99

From CBC: _



Even if some provinces have *flattened* or *bent* the curve, there still remains a risk of outbreaks.

Click to expand...

_No Wonder people are confused!


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## OptsyEagle

You can't ask low risk people to stay at home just because high risk people want to go out as well. If high risk people can protect themselves by self-isolating and wearing more protective gear then that is a better solution then shutting down the entire society. A lockdown can only ever be a temporary solution. By temporary, I am talking about a few months at most. After that bigger problems are going to start to show up.


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## Plugging Along

Right now low risk people are staying at home to try and the people who are high risk. This was to buy to time to flatten the curve, try to find treatments/ vaccines, and/or slow things down so plans can be formulated.

If this continues with no end in sight, the low risk people will tell the high risk people they have their plan, which LTA has repeated over and over again Stay at home. However, that doesn't stop the low risk people from slowly doing things so they can live such as work. Right now is the time to work on find treatments/vaccines AND to come up with a plan. That may very well exclude high risk groups.

My father has already said, he will stay at home, and it will be up to us on what type of risk we will accept for our families. Right now, staying at home is for the benefit of the high risk, it's pretty entitled of them to think that everyone else has to stop living. Everyone needs to find a way to live in the acceptable risk which will vary from person to person. 

I think about both sides. My father is in a very high risk group, my mother is in care facility that is completely locked down and her mental health is deteriorating, I have kids that their mental health is deteriorating, I am in a higher risk group trying to take care of all of these people. I have been preparing and thinking through various scenarios based on our family. We talked about if the kids had an option to go back to school, that would put my father at risk because I could get something from the kids. He said if that was the case, then I would completely stop seeing him, and would just drop of stuff at him place, and my sibling with no kids in school would help him. Same thing if either my spouse or I had to go back in the office. My father is reasonable, and he has said that though he doesn't want to put his life at risk, he thinks its silly that everyone in our family stops their life to do so. 

So that would mean, he doesn't get haircuts while my kids and I do (if that was an option), but then we wouldn't see him. I would personally take the risk for certain things but not risk my father. Why do some think that a plan needs to include everyone? Currently, there is a plan for those at risk. Stay at home. For those at lesser risk, they can come up with other plans, it's okay it doesn't include those at risk.


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## ian

We are staying close to home. Both of us in the at risk category. So we both went and had the testing done. Both were negative. It was a snap to get the drive in test done. Results by phone in 2 and 3 days. We are staying close to home but the last thing we want to do is pass anything on to someone else. We will still stay close to home until we are comfortable....notwithstanding what is done locally to open up the economy.


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## sags

How many people would fall into the high risk category ?

How many people have asthma, heart conditions, diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity, weakened immune systems, or respiratory problems ?

Doctors and nurses are stressing that it isn't just old people who are having bad outcomes of death or permanent damage.

It isn't as easy as telling old folks to stay home. 

P.S. The doctors and nurses aren't holding up signs saying "open the economy". They are holding signs saying "stay home".


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> It isn't as easy as telling old folks to stay home. If it was that easy we would already be doing it.


That's what Sweden is doing.

There are many possible paths, depending on the situation, and the available data at the time.
Since the data and situation are constantly changing, our actions should also be continuously re-evaluated.


----------



## sags

Sweden has worse outcomes than their neighbors too.

They also aren't looking very good as their daily cases of infections is rising.









Sweden COVID: 1,222,892 Cases and 15,151 Deaths - Worldometer


Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




www.worldometers.info


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Sweden has worse outcomes than their neighbors too.
> 
> They also aren't looking very good as their daily cases of infections is rising.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sweden COVID: 1,222,892 Cases and 15,151 Deaths - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info


And Michigan is doing worse than Ohio.

What's your point?

Mine is that it's complicated, and there are no simple answers.


----------



## m3s




----------



## Longtimeago

When someone writes 'we need a plan' and then in the same post writes, 'a key factor will be protecting those at high risk', that indicates that the 'plan' must include those at high risk.

All I wrote yesterday was that if the only part of the 'plan' that involves those at high risk is to exclude them, then really that's simply 'talking out of both sides of your mouth'. You say your plan will include and then follow a plan that excludes. I was simply taking exception to that contradiction.

I have no illusions as to how we will go about 'easing up' and what the limitations of it will be. Nor do I have any illusions as to how I will personally have to continue to act for the foreseeable future. Easing up will change nothing for me and I don't expect it to. 

There may be a point at which I would be willing risk going into a store, hairdresser, etc. but that would not be until there were zero cases reported in at least the last 14 days. That is not going to happen anytime soon. The other way of course is if they find a vaccine or cure.


----------



## Longtimeago

agent99 said:


> From CBC:
> 
> No Wonder people are confused!


People are confused because the average IQ is 100 which is not too bright and they are unable to differentiate between fact and fiction or fact and opinion.

I see nothing to be confused about. We have been given the facts over and over again, what's to be confused about if you are able to understand those facts.


----------



## sags

Businesses are going to find they have trouble getting liability insurance.

Already the insurers are denying "business interruption" claims, as they say the legal fine print excludes viral pandemics.

If the insurance companies paid all the claims, they would go bankrupt.


----------



## Longtimeago

ian said:


> We are staying close to home. Both of us in the at risk category. So we both went and had the testing done. Both were negative. It was a snap to get the drive in test done. Results by phone in 2 and 3 days. We are staying close to home but the last thing we want to do is pass anything on to someone else. We will still stay close to home until we are comfortable....notwithstanding what is done locally to open up the economy.


Why did you get tested? You say, '*so* we both went and had the testing done' as if the reason for doing so was simply because you are in the high risk group. That isn't in and of itself a reason to be tested. Did you have symptoms?

Even when tested, all it tells you is that you were negative on the day of the test. It tells you nothing about any day since then.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I have no illusions as to how we will go about 'easing up' and what the limitations of it will be. Nor do I have any illusions as to how I will personally have to continue to act for the foreseeable future. Easing up will change nothing for me and I don't expect it to.


It probably won't change much for you in the short term but some provinces are moving forward with their plan and hopefully their new case numbers will remain low or zero.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Businesses are going to find they have trouble getting liability insurance.
> 
> Already the insurers are denying "business interruption" claims, as they say the legal fine print excludes viral pandemics.


 ... nothing new. Even your policy "includes pandemic" coverage, insurers will either dither on paying or avoid paying until they get sued. 



> If the insurance companies paid all the claims, they would go bankrupt.


 ... then don't sell the scams.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Why did you get tested? You say, '*so* we both went and had the testing done' as if the reason for doing so was simply because you are in the high risk group. That isn't in and of itself a reason to be tested. Did you have symptoms?
> 
> Even when tested, all it tells you is that you were negative on the day of the test. It tells you nothing about any day since then.


Actually everyone should be tested, so we can shut down the asymptomatic spreaders ASAP.
That's the whole reason for testing and contact tracing.

Since there is no treatment for COVID, they treat the symptoms, actually knowing if they have COVID doesn't help or change the treatment.


----------



## ian

My spouse, a retired health care worker, exhibited symptoms. She got tested. In between her tests and her results I had symptoms. So I filled out the on line form. Then someone from Alberta Health called to speak to me about those symptoms (same process for my spouse). and subsequently advised me to get the test.

I fully realize that the test only confirm negative at a point in time. I could have contracted the virus an hour after having the test swab taken.

What impressed me was the organization. The authorities had this down pat. After the screening both waited 3-4 days for the test appt. The drive in appt. took 15-20 minutes each, start to finish, and the results were provide in 2 and 3 days respectively. We keep reading about how difficult it is to get tested and how long the process is. Our experience was the opposite.

No change in our behaviors. We are still staying home, or taking drives alone . Groceries once every two weeks or so. Keeping distance from our neighbours, etc. . We will not be change until the public health authorities advise us to do so.

We certainly are not going to change our behaviour based on what some politician, business persons, or some person in the street with zero medical, scientific or public health background advises us.

One of the challenges we see is that are are far too many 'know nothings or perhaps 'know it alls'' pontificating on how and when to open and go back to normal. They are getting media attention and creating some confusion among people who are prone to believe everything they hear or read without verification. There will not be a normal until we get a reasonable solution to this. Whether it be an effective treatment or a vaccine.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> How many people would fall into the high risk category ?
> 
> How many people have asthma, heart conditions, diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity, weakened immune systems, or respiratory problems ?
> 
> Doctors and nurses are stressing that it isn't just old people who are having bad outcomes of death or permanent damage.
> 
> It isn't as easy as telling old folks to stay home.
> 
> P.S. The doctors and nurses aren't holding up signs saying "open the economy". They are holding signs saying "stay home".


Some people heard the initial 80% none to mild reactions and 20% serious to deadly reactions and understood that to be saying only 20% of the population (mainly the elderly) were at high risk. That is not correct.

It says NOTHING about what percentage of the population are at high risk. An 80 year old may contract the virus and have a mild reaction, they then will be in the 80% with mild reactions. A healthy 30 year old may contract the virus and die. They then will be in the 20% with serious reactions. Nothing to do with the percentage of population who are AT high risk based on age or underlying medical conditions. It's a totally separate subject.

The high risk group is estimated to be as much as 50% of the population sags when you include not just age but all those with underlying conditions. For example, consider all those who are obese as just one group of those at higher risk of a serious reaction. There's a heck of a lot of them, at least 25% of all Canadians are obese and therefore at high risk of a serious reaction. Asthma is another high risk factor and 9.5% of Canadians have asthma. There are 15.6% of Canadians over age 65. You can't just start adding up those numbers to get a total percentage of those at high risk because one given individual might fit all 3 of those example categories at the same time. But what you can quite easily see is that a pretty large percentage of the population has at least one high risk factor.

When people write about high risk people having to stay at home and low risk people being able to go out and back to work etc. they seem to be assuming that MOST people will then be able to go back to work etc. They don't realize high risk is not just age related and that low risk is probably not more than 50% of all the population. How many businesses can operate with only 50% of their workforce available?


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> That's what Sweden is doing.
> 
> There are many possible paths, depending on the situation, and the available data at the time.
> Since the data and situation are constantly changing, our actions should also be continuously re-evaluated.


I don't think we should be looking at Sweden for any answers MrMatt. Sweden has a population of 10 million vs. our 37 million and almost as many cases and deaths as we do. We are doing a lot better than Sweden is.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Actually everyone should be tested, so we can shut down the asymptomatic spreaders ASAP.
> That's the whole reason for testing and contact tracing.


 ... I don't disagree about getting everyone (ie, the entire population provided there's enough testing swabs/materials/equipments to do so) tested. But how do you propose to "shut down" the asymptomatic spreaders? That's a very slippery slope.



> Since there is no treatment for COVID, they treat the symptoms, actually knowing if they have COVID doesn't help or change the treatment.


 ... just as slippery.


----------



## sags

Too many people believe COVID only threatens sick, old people. The doctors and nurses who are treating COVID patients say otherwise.

One nurse reported starting IVs in patients and literally watching blood clots form in the tubing. She had never seen that before.

Doctors are reporting a high number of strokes among younger patients (blood clots). They are reporting permanent lung damage.

As far as I am concerned, some politicians are taking huge risks with other people's lives.

UK PM Boris Johnson got it and was close to death. He knows how hard it hits and is telling people..........stay home.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Actually everyone should be tested, so we can shut down the asymptomatic spreaders ASAP.
> That's the whole reason for testing and contact tracing.
> 
> Since there is no treatment for COVID, they treat the symptoms, actually knowing if they have COVID doesn't help or change the treatment.


Yes, testing everyone would be the ideal MrMatt. Of course you would have to continue re-testing everyone frequently as well. How many tests would that be in total do you think? Everyone goes to a drive-through test by law, every week perhaps. Workable?

There's ideal and there's doable. I agree we should do as many tests as possible. I do not agree we can test everyone however. So how do you determine the priorities in doing the testing you CAN do?


----------



## sags

Nah.......a week would be too long apart LTA.

It would have to be every morning and police would have to drive around forcing people to take the test. 

There are only 3 legitimate options. A treatment, a vaccine, and everyone wearing a hazmat suit.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> I don't think we should be looking at Sweden for any answers MrMatt. Sweden has a population of 10 million vs. our 37 million and almost as many cases and deaths as we do. We are doing a lot better than Sweden is.


That depends on one's opinion on what that difference is worth. We put value on human life everyday (it's part of being a serious adult).


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> That depends on one's opinion on what that difference is worth. We put value on human life everyday (it's part of being a serious adult).


Well OK andrewf, you put a value on it for us. 

If your employer were open and you died, what $ value of profit would they make vs. the $ value of your death? Got a number?

What about me? I'm retired, so I contribute to the economy only by spending money. If over the next 20 years, I spend $1 million, how will the economy be better off if I die tomorrow and spend $0? 

Sounds like a good plan would be for you to die in order to allow your company to carry on and contribute to the economy, while I continue to live and contribute to the economy. 

I can live with that andrewf, can you?


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> Actually everyone should be tested, so we can shut down the asymptomatic spreaders ASAP.
> That's the whole reason for testing and contact tracing.
> 
> Since there is no treatment for COVID, they treat the symptoms, actually knowing if they have COVID doesn't help or change the treatment.


One of the challenges with testing early on especially with asymptomatic spreaders is that you can get false negatives and as others have said, testing is only for a period of time. I know someone who was pretty sure they were infected early on in his late 40's He went to an event, and was really sick, and there were other people tested positive at the event. He tested negative even though he had symptoms and felt horrible to understate it. He lives with his elderly mother in her late 70's. She was had a few aches and pains, but felt okay, they tested her because she was a high risk group, she had it. We are sure both had it. The challenge is there is so much unknown. 

It's interesting that they are testing for the anti bodies now. That's where I hope there is some more information and that the body starts to build immunity.


----------



## cainvest

So I was out at a local provincial park/forest yesterday and I couldn't believe how many people were there. Hikers, ATV riders, families at camp sites, horseback riders ... never seen it so busy out there! I guess people just looking for safe ways to get outdoors and get rid of the cabin fever. This pandemic really changed people's habits that's for sure.


----------



## cainvest

Plugging Along said:


> It's interesting that they are testing for the anti bodies now. That's where I hope there is some more information and that the body starts to build immunity.


Yes, they started collecting that information a while ago but the results are not in yet.

One thing I do find missing, though not a scientific as an antibody test, is reports on the number of repeat cases. There are over 2.8 million reported cases worldwide ... so how many of those people that were positive have re-tested positive say 14 days after being cleared?


----------



## Plugging Along

cainvest said:


> So I was out at a local provincial park/forest yesterday and I couldn't believe how many people were there. Hikers, ATV riders, families at camp sites, horseback riders ... never seen it so busy out there! I guess people just looking for safe ways to get outdoors and get rid of the cabin fever. This pandemic really changed people's habits that's for sure.


I didn't realize people could go to camp sites. I know there is a provincial wide fire ban (thank goodness). There is a lot of cabin fever, I had to drop off some items (contactless), and brought my kid along. My getting out was seeing where there were so many line ups. Canadian tire was the winner, I think everyone is trying to get their gardening stuff, and they aren't answering the phone. The line up was almost 3 building long. 

I have been trying to stay out of the mountains, but may do so in a bit. I have to find time for us to bring nature back in. We don't love the outdoors, this is quite the change for us.


----------



## cainvest

Plugging Along said:


> I didn't realize people could go to camp sites.


This is in Manitoba, all our parks (city and provincial) are still open but some restrictions are in place.


----------



## Plugging Along

cainvest said:


> Yes, they started collecting that information a while ago but the results are not in yet.
> 
> One thing I do find missing, though not a scientific as an antibody test, is reports on the number of repeat cases. There are over 2.8 million reported cases worldwide ... so how many of those people that were positive have re-tested positive say 14 days after being cleared?


Great question. There are various articles that some may be repeats, some may be due to testing or a long incubation period. Also, there are multiple strains out there, so I wonder how that will impact all of this. 

We have been able to self isolate very well, and my family is holding up, but I can see cracks starting to happen. My mother, who is in a home that has been locked down, her mental capacity is deteriorating because of the lack of structure and visits from the family. As a result, she is refusing to eat or take her medication and is started to get paranoid. Though she is physically safe from the virus, she is getting to the point that the nurses are having problems caring for her. 

Staying locked down will have other very harmful consequences, so I hope they come up with something that allows incremental opening up of things.


----------



## sags

PA........my wife's work has an outside patio area that is only accessible from inside the building. The residents can go out and walk or get fresh air.

The recreation staff try to come up with some entertainment ideas to keep them active, but can't allow outside entertainers into the building.

Sometimes they will cook them hotdogs or they can have "tea" outside.

Perhaps your mom's nursing home could fence off an area outside that could be used by residents to get out for a bit ?

As long as they are kept segregated from anyone infected or the general public, they should be safe.


----------



## sags

Speaking of my wife........she is earning an extra $4 an hour today, thanks to Justin and Doug. Thanks guys, the staff appreciate it !


----------



## Money172375

Plugging Along said:


> I didn't realize people could go to camp sites. I know there is a provincial wide fire ban (thank goodness). There is a lot of cabin fever, I had to drop off some items (contactless), and brought my kid along. My getting out was seeing where there were so many line ups. Canadian tire was the winner, I think everyone is trying to get their gardening stuff, and they aren't answering the phone. The line up was almost 3 building long.
> 
> I have been trying to stay out of the mountains, but may do so in a bit. I have to find time for us to bring nature back in. We don't love the outdoors, this is quite the change for us.


provincial parks closed in Ontario til end of May


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> Well OK andrewf, you put a value on it for us.
> 
> If your employer were open and you died, what $ value of profit would they make vs. the $ value of your death? Got a number?
> 
> What about me? I'm retired, so I contribute to the economy only by spending money. If over the next 20 years, I spend $1 million, how will the economy be better off if I die tomorrow and spend $0?
> 
> Sounds like a good plan would be for you to die in order to allow your company to carry on and contribute to the economy, while I continue to live and contribute to the economy.
> 
> I can live with that andrewf, can you?











Quality-adjusted life year - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





This is a real idea that serious people who have to make decisions about how to allocate resources and make risk/reward tradeoffs.

You seem to be arguing that we should be spending $1M if needed to keep a person alive for another week. There is a point where it is not socially/economically viable to keep directing resources toward extending human life.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Yes, testing everyone would be the ideal MrMatt. Of course you would have to continue re-testing everyone frequently as well. How many tests would that be in total do you think? Everyone goes to a drive-through test by law, every week perhaps. Workable?
> 
> There's ideal and there's doable. I agree we should do as many tests as possible. I do not agree we can test everyone however. So how do you determine the priorities in doing the testing you CAN do?





andrewf said:


> Quality-adjusted life year - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is a real idea that serious people who have to make decisions about how to allocate resources and make risk/reward tradeoffs.
> 
> You seem to be arguing that we should be spending $1M if needed to keep a person alive for another week. There is a point where it is not socially/economically viable to keep directing resources toward extending human life.


Comes down to where our priorities lie, and how much we're willing to spend.
At some point you have to put a price on it, to be honest, we already kind of do.


----------



## sags

I not only support medically assisted death, but believe our whole concept of end of life has to change.

There should be places to go where people can end their lives pain free and in total comfort and dignity.

Maybe suspended in warm water, surrounded by soothing fragrances, and a whole wall screen of photos of their life. They can be surrounded by loved ones, listening to their favorite music and decide for themselves when they wish to gently drift off. In time perhaps we could make end of life a pleasurable experience rather than what it is today. How many people in long term homes would choose to just let it go, I wonder. Sometimes living is worse than death.

Unfortunately, religion gets involved and some want to tell others how to live and how to die.

Maybe in the future we won't have funeral homes and instead will have "end of life" homes where people decide how they are going to exit this world.


----------



## cainvest

Plugging Along said:


> Great question. There are various articles that some may be repeats, some may be due to testing or a long incubation period. Also, there are multiple strains out there, so I wonder how that will impact all of this.


I know they wouldn't like to infer immunity based on repeat case numbers but it would give a good idea of "potential" immunity levels with such a large data set. Tests have shown SARS (2003) gives a 2-3 year immunity for most and being closely related, covid-19 may be the same. In other words, if you're seeing 25% of recovered front line workers re-infected then immunity is likely not good but if those numbers were 0.1% one could surmise immunity is present.


----------



## Mukhang pera

m3s said:


>


All I get from that link is a snotty message thus:

The uploader has not made this video available in your country.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> What about me? I'm retired, so I contribute to the economy only by spending money. If over the next 20 years, I spend $1 million, how will the economy be better off if I die tomorrow and spend $0?


To the extent that that $1 million would come from funds you have saved for retirement, I suspect that money wouldl vest somewhere (perhaps in a spouse) where it would still get spent nevertheless, n'est-ce pas? Or would you plan to take it with you?

To the extent that some of the $1 million might derive from sources such as CPP, OAS etc., again, I would expect that money would still exist and would end up in the economy somehow. 

In short, I do not regard it as clear beyond peradventure that your death - say premature by 20 years - would result in a $1 million loss to the economy. You asked how the economy would be better off as a result of your demise. Perhaps the better question would be: How will it be worse off? 

Anyway, just some random thoughts without taking time to apply any principles of economic theory, an undertaking which I am ill-equipped to carry out in any event. I have no training as an economist and have not tried to learn much in that arena on my own. I expect, LTA, that you are appropriately qualified and will return here and wax eloquent about the topic, to the betterment of us all. Even us sub-100 IQ types might learn just a soupçon.

And while you are at it, kindly respond to Prairie Guy's post #1,883, _supra_, where he queried your post about gullibility thus:

What facts were made up? Please be specific.


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> PA........my wife's work has an outside patio area that is only accessible from inside the building. The residents can go out and walk or get fresh air.
> 
> The recreation staff try to come up with some entertainment ideas to keep them active, but can't allow outside entertainers into the building.
> 
> Sometimes they will cook them hotdogs or they can have "tea" outside.
> 
> Perhaps your mom's nursing home could fence off an area outside that could be used by residents to get out for a bit ?
> 
> As long as they are kept segregated from anyone infected or the general public, they should be safe.


The staff are doing a great job. The challenges are they are not having the large gatherings like chapel or music anymore. They are doing smaller gatherings on each floor. They don't have the staff to take the residents individually to the small outdoor area. My mother cannot go down by herself. In my mothers specific case she has a form of dementia and some mental health challenges. When there are changes in routine, it really sets her off. The biggest challenge is that my dad used to visit every day, and that would calm her. When he is not around, she starts to imagine things and cannot be calmed. She thinks that there has been harm to my dad or to the family if we aren't around for more than a couple of days. She is at the point now, that even when they call my father to calm her down, she is irate and irrational and thinks someone is trying to harm her. She hasn't eaten all of her meals in 2 weeks now, and it takes the staff a long time to get her to eat anything. She spits out her meds because she thinks someone is poisoning or sedating her. She used to get like this every once in a while, and one of us would just drive down to the home and calm her down and spend extra time with her. Right now, with the complete lock down it's making her condition worse. I don't know what she will be like in a month or two without visitors. Even our scheduled phone calls are getting worse as she is not recognizing our voices. Video is very difficult for many reasons. 

It's for these complex reasons, I do think there needs to be more thought developing very small specific plans to reopen certain things. I thought about if we quarantined my dad for 15 days (which that's pretty all he does), if he would be allowed in. However, that is against the policies, which I understand why. We tried to arrange to have them wheel my mom to the door and have my dad on the other side, again, against the policies. It's a very fine balance. A continued, blanket shut down will have many severe long term negative effects, these effects be even worst than allowing the virus to take it's coarse. I am not advocating the latter, but just thinking about how plans might work to slowly allow certain things to happen while minimizing the risk.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I not only support medically assisted death, but believe our whole concept of end of life has to change
> 
> Unfortunately, religion gets involved and some want to tell others how to live and how to die.
> 
> Maybe in the future we won't have funeral homes and instead will have "end of life" homes where people decide how they are going to exit this world.


The potential for abuse here is unbelievable.

Funny thing, people don't want to execute rapists and killers, but they're okay killing babies and the old or sick.
I don't understand that perspective.

You don't have to be religious to realize that killing people is sometimes wrong.


----------



## sags

The US opens up and people are draped all over each other, spreading the cooties like they are on a mission.

Yea, I can see how this is going to work out well.......for the cooties.


----------



## sags

Deaths to confirmed cases is about 1.5%. New cases is twice as many as the number of recovered cases.

Canada has only tested about 2% of Canadians. We have a long ways to go yet.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> So I was out at a local provincial park/forest yesterday and I couldn't believe how many people were there. Hikers, ATV riders, families at camp sites, horseback riders ... never seen it so busy out there! I guess people just looking for safe ways to get outdoors and get rid of the cabin fever. This pandemic really changed people's habits that's for sure.


All Ontario provincial parks are closed at present until May 31.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Quality-adjusted life year - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is a real idea that serious people who have to make decisions about how to allocate resources and make risk/reward tradeoffs.
> 
> You seem to be arguing that we should be spending $1M if needed to keep a person alive for another week. There is a point where it is not socially/economically viable to keep directing resources toward extending human life.


No, I'm not arguing we should spend $1 mil to keep someone alive one week. You are making up that extreme scenario.

What I was trying to indicate was that the value of a person is not so easily determined as you may think. Your value as a worker in a factory may not exceed my value as a retiree. 

But go on thinking as you wish, the reality is that regardless of what you or I think, what is going to happen is going to happen. Both you and I have no choice but to sit back and watch it happen since we are not in charge.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> The potential for abuse here is unbelievable.
> 
> Funny thing, people don't want to execute rapists and killers, but they're okay killing babies and the old or sick.
> I don't understand that perspective.
> 
> You don't have to be religious to realize that killing people is sometimes wrong.


Killing people is not the same as allowing someone to choose when to end their life MrMatt. The potential for abuse exists, that is correct. But almost everything we make a decision about has the potential for unexpectedd consequences.

If someone abused euthanasia somehow and 'killed' someone, we have laws against that already. It's called murder.


----------



## cainvest

An alternate theory ... 



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/u-of-r-biology-prof-draws-ire-of-sask-scientists-1.5541748



Quote from article above ...
_"The outcome of this test is going to show that the vast majority of the population has already had the virus, meaning that social isolation is 1) not necessary and 2) didn't work as well as we thought it would," Buttigieg wrote in an April 2 post on Facebook. _


----------



## Prairie Guy

Study after study is showing large numbers of people infected but not sick. Rather than being optimistic that a realistic end game is in sight (with proper precautions) the opposite has happened...the socialists who want to shut down the country indefinitely are now upset because they're losing their chance to push their agenda.


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> To the extent that that $1 million would come from funds you have saved for retirement, I suspect that money wouldl vest somewhere (perhaps in a spouse) where it would still get spent nevertheless, n'est-ce pas? Or would you plan to take it with you?
> 
> To the extent that some of the $1 million might derive from sources such as CPP, OAS etc., again, I would expect that money would still exist and would end up in the economy somehow.
> 
> In short, I do not regard it as clear beyond peradventure that your death - say premature by 20 years - would result in a $1 million loss to the economy. You asked how the economy would be better off as a result of your demise. Perhaps the better question would be: How will it be worse off?
> 
> Anyway, just some random thoughts without taking time to apply any principles of economic theory, an undertaking which I am ill-equipped to carry out in any event. I have no training as an economist and have not tried to learn much in that arena on my own. I expect, LTA, that you are appropriately qualified and will return here and wax eloquent about the topic, to the betterment of us all. Even us sub-100 IQ types might learn just a soupçon.
> 
> And while you are at it, kindly respond to Prairie Guy's post #1,883, _supra_, where he queried your post about gullibility thus:
> 
> What facts were made up? Please be specific.


Re the Fox video YOU linked, the talking head starts out by saying and I quote: "willing stooges in our media have finally stopped pretending they don't hate you, they do." 

First, what is he if not a media stooge? Second, why on earth would any media person 'hate' the public? Third, if that is his opinion, that's fine but you do not state an opinion as a FACT.

Next he says about a lockdown, "told no choice but to stop our lives completely" Again, that's nonsensical exaggeration for dramatic affect. If we stop our lives completely, that means we are dead. Duhhhh. My life certainly hasn't stopped completely thank goodness.

A realistic and more neutral comment would have been to say, 'we have been told we have to make considerable changes to our lifestyle at present'. 

Then he says, mass quarantines they tell us are the only way to save lives, but that's a lie. They don't know it's true, no scientific evidence, it's never been done.'

First, no one said quarantines are the ONLY way to save lives. We have been told washing hands will do so, not touching our face will do so, keeping physical distancing will do so. But he chooses to pick only ONE item and then say, 'that's a lie.' Very dramatic.

Second, he says they don't know it's true, no evidence, never done before. That is in fact an outright LIE on his part. We know what a virus is, there is evidence that quarantine stops spread, it's been done many, many times, going back to the Middle Ages. 

So he is either purposely stating an outright lie or he is unaware of viruses and history.

That's in under the first 1.5 minutes Mukhang Pera and as far as I needed to listen to know this talking head doesn't know what he is talking about and has a definite agenda he wants to push.

People like this will say anything they want to try and discredit something. They don't have to worry about being held to account for what they say after all. It's a free country, you can say almost anything without fear of retribution. Look at Trump, he has now said he takes no responsibility for how some people have acted after he said maybe injecting disinfectant might be a cure. NO RESPONSIBILITY Mukhang Pera. As a lawyer, I would think hearing someone say that should make you see RED.

That Fox idiot you linked is just as bad. Some people will listen to his nonsense and think it is all real.


----------



## Longtimeago

Premier Ford in Ontario has announced a 3 step plan to opening up and sensibly also announced that he will not give specific dates until all the necessary steps are in place to begin.

So, not before ICU beds are reasonably available, testing is fully available, contact tracing personnel are fully in place. Once he is assured all that is in place, then and ONLY then will step 1 of re-opening be started.

No doubt that will anger a lot of people including some here who want what they want, NOW. I'm reminded of little children who lay on the floor and bang their feet etc. when they don't get what they want. The answer to that of course as most parents soon figure out, is to ignore them.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> An alternate theory ...


Well the second half of the article basically says he regrets his rant on Facebook and his research proposal wasn't approved

"Nazeem Muhajarine, professor and chair of community health and epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan, defended the expertise of the scientists and officials who work with the Saskatchewan Health Authority"


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> Well the second half of the article basically says he regrets his rant on Facebook and his research proposal wasn't approved
> 
> "Nazeem Muhajarine, professor and chair of community health and epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan, defended the expertise of the scientists and officials who work with the Saskatchewan Health Authority"


Actually he got what he wanted ...

_Saskatchewan's chief medical health officer, Saqib Shahab, confirmed at a news conference on April 11 that Saskatchewan is working on a plan for antibody testing. _


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Premier Ford in Ontario has announced a 3 step plan to opening up and sensibly also announced that he will not give specific dates until all the necessary steps are in place to begin.
> 
> So, not before ICU beds are reasonably available, testing is fully available, contact tracing personnel are fully in place. Once he is assured all that is in place, then and ONLY then will step 1 of re-opening be started.


That'll be a while for Onartio based on the numbers I see, maybe in the fall? 

Only 5 provinces seem to have the spread reasonably contained.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> That'll be a while for Onartio based on the numbers I see, maybe in the fall?
> 
> Only 5 provinces seem to have the spread reasonably contained.


It's really a question of population density and also to a degree, remoteness making travel imported cases less likely. t's not a case of a province doing a better job of containing the virus. There has been little difference that I would say could be down to that.

A province by province answer makes sense vs. a national answer. One problem though is that people in Ontario are just as antsy as people in Saskatchewan, 'antsyness' if you will knows no boundaries. So it is quite likely we will see more people disregarding the restrictions as time goes on.

In his address, Ford answered a question of whether there would be 'regional' opening differences in Ontario. His answer was an emphatic NO. Otherwise, you would see people from Toronto all heading north to cottage country if it were to open up ahead of the city for example. But that's not the answer people wanted to hear, otherwise why ask the question?


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Actually he got what he wanted ...
> 
> _Saskatchewan's chief medical health officer, Saqib Shahab, confirmed at a news conference on April 11 that Saskatchewan is working on a plan for antibody testing. _


You honestly think that he was responsible for this? As part of any opening up the quarantine, there would be some requirement to ensure that people do have some resistance. However, the problem is that many of the tests have shown false positives, so that could contribute to a second wave if people go around thinking that they are immune and get sick. Also, it's still unclear if the level of antibodies are sufficient to have immunity to re-infection.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> It's really a question of population density and also to a degree, remoteness making travel imported cases less likely. t's not a case of a province doing a better job of containing the virus. There has been little difference that I would say could be down to that.
> 
> A province by province answer makes sense vs. a national answer. One problem though is that people in Ontario are just as antsy as people in Saskatchewan, 'antsyness' if you will knows no boundaries. So it is quite likely we will see more people disregarding the restrictions as time goes on.


For whatever reason, 5 provinces will likely be getting restrictions lifted long before the ones with many cases and are currently unable to "flatten the curve".

It'll be bad if those provinces that are worse off disregard restrictions, it'll only prolong the plan to lift restrictions.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> You honestly think that he was responsible for this? As part of any opening up the quarantine, there would be some requirement to ensure that people do have some resistance. However, the problem is that many of the tests have shown false positives, so that could contribute to a second wave if people go around thinking that they are immune and get sick. Also, it's still unclear if the level of antibodies are sufficient to have immunity to re-infection.


Nope, I'm sure it was already in the works they just didn't release the info to the public before he made the video. And yes, we don't know much (and/or they are not telling us) about possible immunity levels or re-infection rates that they are seeing, seems like they are keeping this information to themselves for now.


----------



## sags

Kidney and liver problems. Strokes and blood clotting. Respiratory and heart problems.

Scientists don't even know what is causing all these different symptoms yet, but some are in a rush to find out for themselves what it feels like.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Kidney and liver problems. Strokes and blood clotting. Respiratory and heart problems.
> 
> Scientists don't even know what is causing all these different symptoms yet, but some are in a rush to find out for themselves what it feels like.


That's just trolling.

We just want to save lives. You're the one indifferent to the suffering of others.
You were even rejecting the data saying that people are being hurt by this lockdown.


----------



## Beaver101

This is so farcial but then when are the paper-pushers at the banks not notoriously farcial? On one hand, the public (including bank employees! or are they robots?) are applauding health-care workers yet on the other hand, they're treating them like the plague. Unfortunately this starts with TD (again!):

'It's a slap in the face': Toronto doctor says he was told he can't enter local TD branch



> A Toronto doctor says he's "very concerned" about TD Bank's COVID-19 policies after he says he was told that he wasn't allowed to enter his local branch — simply because he's a health-care worker.
> 
> Dr. Coleman Rotstein, a University of Toronto professor and organ transplant specialist with the University Health Network, says it began when his daughter paid a visit to the TD branch on Avenue Road in North York last week.
> 
> As she was entering, he told CBC Toronto, a security guard stopped her and asked if she was a health-care worker.
> 
> "Then she asked the guard, 'What if I was a health-care worker?' And the guard said, 'No, you cannot come into the bank.'"
> 
> Rotstein says he then called the branch himself and* a teller confirmed that health-care workers are not allowed inside*, and that he was encouraged to do his banking online or by phone. ...


On the flip side, brisk business for litigative lawyers ... an opportunity for another lawsuit!


----------



## sags

Drove by two TD branches this morning. People liined up down the sidewalk for blocks. For what reason are all these people lined up ?

My wife says it is CPP/OAS benefit day and they are lined up to pay their utility bills.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Nope, I'm sure it was already in the works they just didn't release the info to the public before he made the video. And yes, we don't know much (and/or they are not telling us) about possible immunity levels or re-infection rates that they are seeing, seems like they are keeping this information to themselves for now.


That is bordering on conspiracy theory. The fact is no one knows because of unclear studies and results. By saying that they know and are keeping the information to themselves just feeds into conspiracy theories that the this is a manufactured emergency to control people.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> That is bordering on conspiracy theory. The fact is no one knows because of unclear studies and results. By saying that they know and are keeping the information to themselves just feeds into conspiracy theories that the this is a manufactured emergency to control people.


No conspiracy, rather a transparency issue. I do understand the balancing act they need to perform with giving out information to the public. Some detailed information may lead the public to drawing "incorrect" conclusions on their own because they don't have the full picture.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> No conspiracy, rather a transparency issue. I do understand the balancing act they need to perform with giving out information to the public. Some detailed information may lead the public to drawing "incorrect" conclusions on their own because they don't have the full picture.


We already have Trump to illustrate what happens when you start to proclaim things that aren't proven, i.e. hydroxychloroquinone. So, what is the transparency issue? You want to know everything that is going on behind the scenes? Most of it is pretty mundane and you'll hit information overload. If it is about plans, well that's another issue. Some of them are going to be flexible because there is a lot of uncertainty ahead. People are going to be upset if the government plans one direction, and then there are changes.


----------



## sags

And there will be changes, because the scientists are learning more about the virus every day. 

Many of them say.......just wait until we know more and have better treatments.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> And there will be changes, because the scientists are learning more about the virus every day.
> 
> Many of them say.......just wait until we know more and have better treatments.


Or we have no cases in the general population.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> We already have Trump to illustrate what happens when you start to proclaim things that aren't proven, i.e. hydroxychloroquinone. So, what is the transparency issue? You want to know everything that is going on behind the scenes?


Yes, the Trump problem is a good example of information gone wrong. 

Personally I'd like to see more data and some "behind the scenes" information as you put it. One example of more information I'd like to see -> Coronavirus (COVID-19)


----------



## Money172375

We Are in a New Danger Zone | The Tyee


Now may feel safer, but the virus, unsolved, remains a deadly threat to health and social order.




thetyee.ca


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Yes, the Trump problem is a good example of information gone wrong.
> 
> Personally I'd like to see more data and some "behind the scenes" information as you put it. One example of more information I'd like to see -> Coronavirus (COVID-19)


Except, I doubt that the government knows that. There is enough news sources out there that seem to indicate that there are questions about immunity. They already give a tracking of recovered cases, but that's not going to give you the impossible information that you want, i.e. how long immunity will last if they have been infected. It's been around less than a year, there's no way to state that immunity is going to last 2-3 years until we do follow-ups on antibodies 2-3 later, and even then, antibody levels may not be high enough to be effective.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> Except, I doubt that the government knows that. There is enough news sources out there that seem to indicate that there are questions about immunity. They already give a tracking of recovered cases, but that's not going to give you the impossible information that you want, i.e. how long immunity will last if they have been infected.


It would be very easy for them to count how many repeat cases they've had would it not?

How long the immunity will last is another question and no doubt, will take time to answer.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> It would be very easy for them to count how many repeat cases they've had would it not?
> 
> How long the immunity will last is another question and no doubt, will take time to answer.


Sometimes lack of information is simply lack of information, i.e. maybe there are no repeat cases to report. Or maybe those who recover get mild symptoms, but don't report it because they think they just have a mild cold or cough. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're deliberately hiding information unless you have sources that say otherwise.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> Sometimes lack of information is simply lack of information, i.e. maybe there are no repeat cases to report. Or maybe those who recover get mild symptoms, but don't report it because they think they just have a mild cold or cough. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're deliberately hiding information unless you have sources that say otherwise.


No repeat cases would be a good thing to know IMO.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> ...
> 
> Next he says about a lockdown, "told no choice but to stop our lives completely" Again, that's nonsensical exaggeration for dramatic affect. If we stop our lives completely, that means we are dead. Duhhhh. My life certainly hasn't stopped completely thank goodness.
> 
> ...
> That's in under the first 1.5 minutes Mukhang Pera and as far as I needed to listen to know this talking head doesn't know what he is talking about and has a definite agenda he wants to push.
> 
> People like this will say anything they want to try and discredit something. They don't have to worry about being held to account for what they say after all. It's a free country, you can say almost anything without fear of retribution. Look at Trump, he has now said he takes no responsibility for how some people have acted after he said maybe injecting disinfectant might be a cure. NO RESPONSIBILITY Mukhang Pera. As a lawyer, I would think hearing someone say that should make you see RED.
> 
> That Fox idiot you linked is just as bad. Some people will listen to his nonsense and think it is all real.


LTA, you are just as bad. Nonsensical exaggeration. For example, you refer to stopping our lives as the man says = dead. Of course his video is larded with hyperbole, as is a great deal of material circulated today in the media, on forums like this and just about anywhere. 

I do not say I agree with the fellow, but the value in his message to get people to think, and to realize that what they are been told by those apparently in charge might be wrong. You yourself have referred recently to the fact that the average IQ out there is no better than about 100 and I suspect you believe that that's how the likes of Trump and Trudeau gain power. They are voted in by the denizens of the fourth quartile club. Those people will do as they are told by their political leaders, sans question. 

Mr. Carlson is right, in my view, when he says the whole lockdown approach is one grand experiment. No expert has had any relevant experience. They are all guessing. Educated guessing, but guessing nevertheless. Worth a try? Perhaps. But without question? Perhaps not.

Carlson expresses indignation that politicians - who cannot claim any superior intelligence or direct knowledge about the matter when they tell their electorate to do as they are told and down tools and stay home - are somehow trenching on the fundamental freedoms of Americans. I recognize that can be said of just about any law. As I have said before, the best answer I have ever come across to the question "What is law?" is this: "The law is the command of the uncommanded commanders of society." 

For my own part, what I see as the Achilles' heel of the lockdown experiment is an inability to carry it on for nearly as long as necessary. My own guesswork, for sure. But this notion of exposing everyone by baby steps means that, absent an effective vaccine (which I am betting will never be seen), is that getting to the stage of herd immunity (if indeed possible) means that it will take years and not months to get anywhere close. And for many, they will see it increasingly as asking them to stop their lives completely. That's where Carlson's message will likely gain traction. 

You, LTA, are comfortably retired and can sit at your keyboard, with your next grocery order soon to be delivered, and see that all is well in a locked down world. Many are less fortunate. Some have to work to earn income. Others have other business to go about. Now, governments are throwing money at them. Is the public purse deep enough to carry on bailing out all comers in perpetuity (oops, gross exaggeration there)? Every day, more and more interest groups are coming forward and saying that the lockdown is affecting them and they too should receive a handout. 

So I see as likely the prospect of civil disobedience. While I alluded to the masses being willing to do as they are told, even that has its limits. More and more will grow restive and discontented under lockdown. Trudeau will maybe copy his dad and proclaim the War Measures Act. Should be fun to watch. Me, I don't much care. I have been practising social distancing long before that term was first bandied about. Where and how I live allows me and my family to be far more isolated and independent than at all possible for most. If we need to, we can live with no supply chain for food or much else. None. We can manage to eat fairly well, off our own land and the resources of the land and sea. We are already off grid. If it goes down, okay to us. If no more gas, oil or electricity to heat the house or cook our food, no sweat; we use none of that anyway. But I am willing to see things through the eyes of others, to listen to and consider their views. Not everyone lives in a world of splendid isolation.

That willingness to listen to other perspectives is why I watched Carlson's video _in toto_. It reflects a point of view and, unlike you, I did not embark on it unwilling to listen to something that might not be consonant with my own views. But you LTA, have a marked tendency to intolerance. Here, on cmf, wherever someone posts something on any topic not in accord with your own views, you feel constrained to take them to task and to correct their thinking. You have, in the above quote of your words, prescribed to me what should have me seeing red. I have to admit to seldom seeing red about anything. Why bother getting worked up, particularly over something I cannot change? And is not "seeing red" just a tad nonsensical, as you decry? Surely, if I am seeing red, I have probably suffered a retinal hemorrhage or some such. Similar to stopping one's life equates with death. Duhhhhh (as you would say). 

Finally, with respect to Carlson having an "agenda he wants to push", so what? So do all who tell us to stay home, or whatever. He wants others to see things as he does. Hardly a surprise. But thinking people should be able to see that, yet evaluate the message dispassionately even though not in harmony with their own views. Heck, I'll even wade through what I see as crap, completely at odds with my own lights, to gain insight into how others think. I dare say that's part of being a successful politician. Learn to see things though the eyes of the great unwashed, all the better to secure their votes. 

Anyway, I lament the prolixity of this post, which I know to be a wasted effort. Time to walk up to the orchard, do a last bit of spring pruning and to plant a few seedling grape vines kindly donated by a neighbour. He likes to find and cultivate all manner of heritage varieties of fruit and berry crops. Find fault with that, if you can! I double dog dare you! And I'll have a look at the same time at the bald eagles' nest in the tall Douglas fir at the end of the orchard. The eagles have come home, yet again. That nest has been occupied every summer since before we moved here. More than 15 years. Happily, the eagles seem very unconcerned about C-19, or much else that bothers us lesser mortals.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> No repeat cases would be a good thing to know IMO.


Than make some assumptions here. Lack of news may simply mean lack of news and not a lack of transparency. Unless there actually are repeat cases to report, that may simply mean there are none currently. Maybe in the future there will be and then that'll be a another statistic that they'll add to the bottom line with infected cases, deaths, and recovery.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> Than make some assumptions here. Lack of news may simply mean lack of news and not a lack of transparency. Unless there actually are repeat cases to report, that may simply mean there are none currently. Maybe in the future there will be and then that'll be a another statistic that they'll add to the bottom line with infected cases, deaths, and recovery.


Yup, maybe they'll report in the future ... who knows.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Funny thing, people don't want to execute rapists and killers


Funny that people who don't trust government make other decisions trust them enough to decide who to kill.


bgc_fan said:


> Than make some assumptions here. Lack of news may simply mean lack of news and not a lack of transparency. Unless there actually are repeat cases to report, that may simply mean there are none currently. Maybe in the future there will be and then that'll be a another statistic that they'll add to the bottom line with infected cases, deaths, and recovery.


There have been a number of cases in Korea of people having a recurrence of infection. Might be more relapse than a reinfection. I would not say there is an absence of evidence, it is just not unequivocally demonstrated one way or the other. More to be understood...


----------



## sags

According to an expert I listened to today, and repeated by Dr. Fauci, they are only now learning why many people are dying from COVID.

Originally it was believed to be a respiratory disease. They expected people would die from severe pneumonia and other lung ailments.

What they have learned is that many with the virus are dying from other causes. Blood clots is a chief cause of death.

Strokes, heart attacks, organ failures are common among the infected. They suspect the actual death rate of COVID is 10X-20X higher than reported.

They are now working on medical protocols that will treat the infection with anti-virals......AND anti-blood clotting drugs.

What the scientists need is time and what they ask is for people to stay home until they discover better ways to treat the symptoms.


----------



## sags

The scientists have all agreed they know very little about "immunity" with this virus.

They don't know if it depends on viral dosage, is time dependent, or is powerful enough to defeat a second infection.

Simply put..........they don't know, so nobody else knows either.


----------



## bgc_fan

Apparently an old drama documentary called Outbreak: Anatomy of a Plague is getting some interest. Particularly with Dr. Tam as one of the interviewees. The IMDB gives the following synopsis: Patient Zero is a stewardess, stricken by what she thinks is chickenpox. She goes to ground in a Montreal hotel room. A few weeks later, she's back on the job, unaware of her role in an impending public health catastrophe. Pandemics have killed more people throughout history than all wars combined. They are unpredictable - and inevitable. Are we ready for the next big one? 'Outbreak: Anatomy of a Plague' juxtaposes a 21st century scenario against the little-known story of the 1885 smallpox epidemic that devastated Montreal. Combining brisk narrative with rigorous research, it vividly evokes a modern city under siege, drawing eerie parallels with 1885. Confronted with social unrest, ethnic scapegoating and economic ruin, authorities struggle to maintain control - and contain a deadly infection.

It's available on Amazon Prime if you have it.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The scientists have all agreed they know very little about "immunity" with this virus.
> 
> They don't know if it depends on viral dosage, is time dependent, or is powerful enough to defeat a second infection.
> 
> Simply put..........they don't know, so nobody else knows either.


Which is why I've been saying for weeks, that we can't wait for a vaccine.


----------



## sags

We aren't ready to "open up" yet. The doctors need sets of protocols on how to adequately treat COVID patients.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> We Are in a New Danger Zone | The Tyee
> 
> 
> Now may feel safer, but the virus, unsolved, remains a deadly threat to health and social order.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thetyee.ca


That's quite a good article. Clear, concise and factual for a change.


----------



## sags

This thread reaches 100 pages as of today. Who would have thought ?


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> They suspect the actual death rate of COVID is 10X-20X higher than reported.


I doubt that could be true. Otherwise the all-cause mortality would have jumped much more than it has (a tick up among over 65s, and no blip at all on middle-age adults).


----------



## sags

That makes sense, if mortality rates are historically similar after separating out the known COVID deaths.

Maybe the fatality rates are offset by fewer workplace or accidental deaths ? Dont't know........this is way above my pay grade.


----------



## sags

The idea of blood clotting in healthy people for no known reason is kind of scary though. How could the COVID cause that ominous symptom ?

I


----------



## off.by.10

sags said:


> The idea of blood clotting in healthy people for no known reason is kind of scary though. How could the COVID cause that ominous symptom ?


Seriously? Diseases have all kinds of weird symptoms through sometimes complex mechanisms. The exact how is outside my area of expertise but I have little doubt it can happen.

I'm sure many are much more scary than this. Flesh-eating disease comes to mind. But they're also rare enough that we don't hear about them much.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I'm no medical professional or scientist so let me guess here ... the immunity / anti-bodies or anti-coagulant agents in your blood / plasma is reacting to the virus


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> So, what is the transparency issue? You want to know everything that is going on behind the scenes?


MB took a good step forward on transparency today and released case numbers by spread type. This is the type if information I find good to have. As of the April 26th only 14.7% account for community based transfer (i.e. unknown source) with all the rest being travel or close contact related. I gather with their re-opening plan starting on May 4th they decided to give out this data now.


----------



## Beaver101

cainvest said:


> MB took a good step forward on transparency today and released case numbers by spread type. This is the type if information I find good to have. *As of the April 26th only 14.7% account for community based transfer* (i.e. unknown source) with all the rest being travel or close contact related. I gather with their re-opening plan starting on May 4th they decided to give out this data now.


 ... about 15% of what? 50,000? which translates to 7,500 people... walking around with potential to infect others.


----------



## cainvest

Beaver101 said:


> ... about 15% of what? 50,000? which translates to 7,500 people... walking around with potential to infect others.


Of known cases they have traced.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The idea of blood clotting in healthy people for no known reason is kind of scary though. How could the COVID cause that ominous symptom ?


If you have COVID19, you're by definition not "healthy"


----------



## sags

If your blood is clotting in your veins, you will wish you stayed home.


----------



## livewell

MrMatt said:


> If you have COVID19, you're by definition not "healthy"


I don't think that is technically correct. It is quite possible to contract the virus and be asymptomatic. It appears it is the transmission via asymptomatic individuals that is creating the problem


----------



## Beaver101

Macy’s reopening 68 stores, hopes to have all operating in six weeks as U.S. restrictions loosen



> Macy’s Inc plans to reopen 68 U.S. stores on Monday in states that have loosened coronavirus lockdowns, the department store operator said on Thursday, as more retailers sought to get business going after a crushing month of closures.
> 
> Cincinnati-based Macy’s, the largest U.S. department store operator by sales, said it expects to have all of its roughly 775 stores reopened in six weeks,* if infection rates taper off as projected* and state and local governments allow it.
> 
> The next batch of roughly 50 stores is scheduled to reopen on May 11, it said.
> 
> ...


I guess the rich can't wait to get their hands on junks or part with their $$$$ ...


----------



## Pluto

Insane murder in NYC hospitals


----------



## sags

I hope that nurse never works in ICU. She is near panic and that job requires calm and cool under pressure.


----------



## ian

National Post has an excellent article that relates the incidence of covid in people entering Ontario and Quebec from various countries and provinces. China hardly makes the grade. By far, it came in from those returning from the US.









Canada's early COVID-19 cases came from the U.S. not China, provincial data shows


The National Post asked for data on the origins of travel-related cases in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta, which have seen the majority of…




nationalpost.com


----------



## sags

It was returning Canadians who spread the virus. The Canadian government couldn't very well shut the door to them.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> It was returning Canadians who spread the virus. The Canadian government couldn't very well shut the door to them.


No, but they could have told them to go to a 2 week quarantine.
As it was, they weren't even advising returning march breakers to quarantine.
It got so bad that Quebec put their own officers at airports to advise people of the quarantine.

Major failure on the part of Trudeau.
But I'm sure you'll overlook it.


----------



## james4beach

ian said:


> National Post has an excellent article that relates the incidence of covid in people entering Ontario and Quebec from various countries and provinces. China hardly makes the grade. By far, it came in from those returning from the US.


Right. This virus came into Canada via travellers, and I bet the spring break crowd and snowbirds were the big carriers.

US is going to continue being a big problem for us, for a long time.



MrMatt said:


> No, but they could have told them to go to a 2 week quarantine.
> As it was, they weren't even advising returning march breakers to quarantine.
> It got so bad that Quebec put their own officers at airports to advise people of the quarantine.
> 
> Major failure on the part of Trudeau.
> But I'm sure you'll overlook it.


I was returning into Canada around then. At least when I flew in (March 17) the border agents were very clear: you are required to go straight home and stay in quarantine for 2 weeks.

I don't know how early Canadian border agents were communicating that message.


----------



## ian

We flew in on March 19. We had that advice from the border agent. When we exited the secure area the Health Authority had two desks set up. Both were manned and had handouts. The message was clear. Quarantine for 14 days, if you have symptoms call our hotline for eval and a test appt.


----------



## sags

Early in this thread there was discussion on self quarantine and that early in the pandemic.

If the government deserves criticism it is the rollout of the CERB, as to how it replaced EI benefits.

Many Canadians have not received either EI or CERB and the phone lines are impossible to get through.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> No, but they could have told them to go to a 2 week quarantine.
> As it was, they weren't even advising returning march breakers to quarantine ....
> Major failure on the part of Trudeau ...


When we crossed the border back from the US on March 16th, we were asked if we had symptoms and told to isolate/quarantine if symptoms showed up.

Others who crossed a few days later report being told to quarantine, no matter what.

The quarantine act was triggered March 25th.


Lots to investigate/ask questions about but from my POV, "no advise" seems a local thing instead of the blanket case being described.


Cheers


----------



## Longtimeago

ian said:


> We flew in on March 19. We had that advice from the border agent. When we exited the secure area the Health Authority had two desks set up. Both were manned and had handouts. The message was clear. Quarantine for 14 days, if you have symptoms call our hotline for eval and a test appt.


Well hindsight is always 20/20 of course but we should have been closing down international travel and imposing a quarantine on all returning Canadians far sooner than Mid-March. Back as far as early February, some posters here were warning that political and economic reasons would take precedence over medical wisdom and that is indeed what happened. We had posters advising do not travel back then and as you may remember, posters saying, I've bought and paid for my travel, I'm going.

Just consider what you do when there is a virus, any virus you want to contain. It isn't rocket science. First you restrict movement to prevent spread. Then you quarantine known cases and trace contacts. Now suppose we had done that from the first case reported in Canada which was on JANUARY 15TH. Even if we had done so by the end of February, we would have had far less cases than we have had. 

It was only in March that cases started to soar. If we had stopped all international travel in February, we would have eliminated a huge number of travellers who left Canada and then returned after that. It wouldn't have eliminated returning snowbirds but it would have elimated all the March Breakers for sure. How many cases could we have avoided if the government had imposed strict travel restrictions even just a few weeks earlier.






COVID-19 epidemiology update: Key updates — Canada.ca


This summary of COVID-19 cases across Canada contains detailed data about the spread of the virus over time and in different regions of the country. Includes breakdowns by age and sex or gender. Provides an overview of testing, variants of concern, cases following vaccination and severe illness...




health-infobase.canada.ca





Unfortunately, economic and political reasons were deemed more important than medical prudence was.


----------



## sags

Sure LTA, and then the conservative media would be railing against Liberal "fascism" just as they are doing right now.

Heck, the conservative media are complaining loudly about a Conservative Premier in Ontario.........Doug Ford.


----------



## Plugging Along

james4beach said:


> Right. This virus came into Canada via travellers, and I bet the spring break crowd and snowbirds were the big carriers.
> 
> US is going to continue being a big problem for us, for a long time.
> 
> 
> 
> I was returning into Canada around then. At least when I flew in (March 17) the border agents were very clear: you are required to go straight home and stay in quarantine for 2 weeks.
> 
> I don't know how early Canadian border agents were communicating that message.


This was one of the biggest fails the government is for travelers. I understand that they did not want to lock down the borders, but they could have made isolation mandatory. 

The official orders for travels to isolate wasn't until March 12/13. There were no clear instructions other than if you were coming from a hotspot prior to then to watch your symptoms and stay if home you get symptoms. My sibling came home on March 4 from Hawaii. My in laws came from a 24 day cruise ship on March 10. March 14 my nephew came back from a trip in which the plane had exposure. No contact was made to him, he had to read it on the news. He was self isolating already. No instructions. In all cases I made my family members self isolate and not go out for 14 days. During this time, there was very little information out there. 

On may volunteer COVID group around March 15 or so, some guy posted asking for help. He was pulled off his international flight because he had a fever and other symptoms. He would left at a hotel at the hospital and told that he couldn't get back on a plane until he had cleared negative. He was given the healthlink number, and that was it. He was asking for rides to emergency to get tested. People were volunteering to drive, I was posting and messaging everyone to stay put, there is no testing in the hospitals and he can't leave his hotel until he gets instructions. I could only imagine having a stranger in my city infect a whole bunch of people and then not being able to trace anything. 

At my work, a consulting was returning from a cruise March 14 and was supposed to be running large engagement workshops with staff and external stakeholders starting March 16 for the week. There were workshops in boardrooms with up to 30 people all week, well over a hundred different people for the week. Some of these people in are in the essential services industries. The international isolation wasn't put on prior to the consultant leaving, but was on when she returned. , gathering restrictions where still 50. Still not very clear on what was allowed., I had her contact me, she thought she could still come in because it was last minute. I called senior management, explained what I knew of everything going on with COVID and the risks, and all sessions were postponed until further notice. It should have been the government with clearer restrictions on travel earlier on

The government didn't need to do a full travel ban at that time, but there could have done a lot better in relaying information and putting restrictions on.


----------



## sags

Trudeau and his government have risen significantly in the polls and are now in majority government territory.

_With an average of 39 per cent, the Liberals have jumped six points since the last election — enough to put them in majority territory. With 30 per cent support, the Conservatives are down four points. 

In its four-week rolling poll ending on March 6, Trudeau was the preferred choice for prime minister of 33 per cent of respondents, against 21 per cent for Scheer. The latest survey, however, has *Trudeau at 38 per cent, followed by Scheer at 17 per cent. *_



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservatives-polls-covid19-1.5548237


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> Sure LTA, and then the conservative media would be railing against Liberal "fascism" just as they are doing right now.
> 
> Heck, the conservative media are complaining loudly about a Conservative Premier in Ontario.........Doug Ford.


In February and early March, the government could have done a lot without full travel restrictions. Our friend travels all over the world for work and commutes between the US, Singapore, HK, and Australia. He travels to each of those locations every two months. During this time, his office was still travel even to Asian countries. The difference was the company put restrictions that they had to isolate upon arrive for 7 days, then could go into the office being masked at all times, temperate checks were required twice day, then upon return, he had to work from home for 7 days before going into the office. There were a lot of protocols in place, and of course, you needed a very good reason to travel. They started this in January. 

I wondered why we weren't doing this in Canada for international travelers. I was already refusing in face meetings in February with anyone who had traveled on a plane. My pod mate came back from a trip with his wife who was attending a conference in early March. I suggested he work from home more. He did and I picked an alternative location. I was lucky that my employer accommodated me. At the time this was happened, the only one able to help 3 families in isolation due to travel, and my elderly dad and mother in the home. My boss understood I couldn't take any chances. I was able figure out a safe plan, but Trudeau should have thought it through. There was lots of precautions outside of travel ban that could have been taken that were not.


----------



## Longtimeago

Plugging Along said:


> This was one of the biggest fails the government is for travelers. I understand that they did not want to lock down the borders, but they could have made isolation mandatory.
> 
> During this time, there was very little information out there.
> 
> It should have been the government with clearer restrictions on travel earlier on
> 
> The government didn't need to do a full travel ban at that time, but there could have done a lot better in relaying information and putting restrictions on.


Agreed except for the '_very little information out there'. _There is no shortage of information 'out there' as to how to deal with a virus outbreak. You restrict movement to prevent spread and you isolate and trace all cases identified. As I said, it isn't rocket science, it's 'Virus 101'. We've known what to do since medieval times.

The problem is politics and the economy get in the way of doing what needs to be done. Imagine the uproar by both business and the public if Trudeau had done what should have been done on January 15th when the first case was reported in Canada. Close down all international travel except for returning Canadians and then mandatory quarantine for all returnees from then on.

The public has to be spoon fed in small doses as was done, or they will be unable to accept what has to happen. In spoon feeding us, we were condemned to what we have got, far more cases than actually had to happen if we had just had the whole enchilada rammed down our throats and we were told to swallow it.

To be fair to Canada and all levels of government, pretty much every country has had to do the same things. ie. spoon feed


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> Trudeau and his government have risen significantly in the polls and are now in majority government territory.
> 
> _With an average of 39 per cent, the Liberals have jumped six points since the last election — enough to put them in majority territory. With 30 per cent support, the Conservatives are down four points.
> 
> In its four-week rolling poll ending on March 6, Trudeau was the preferred choice for prime minister of 33 per cent of respondents, against 21 per cent for Scheer. The latest survey, however, has *Trudeau at 38 per cent, followed by Scheer at 17 per cent. *_
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservatives-polls-covid19-1.5548237


Except when people return to the polls in 2023 and there is a massive debt to be paid, and the economy is in shambles, that may not be the case. Enough people may realize that spending billions without any thought of how it will be repaid will have some sort of consequence. Don't get me wrong, I do think that money needed to be thrown into fighting COVID, however, again, it was done very poorly. I am pretty read on what's happening with COVID and aid, but I even get mixed up on who is eligible and who isn't.


----------



## Plugging Along

Longtimeago said:


> Agreed except for the '_very little information out there'. _There is no shortage of information 'out there' as to how to deal with a virus outbreak. You restrict movement to prevent spread and you isolate and trace all cases identified. As I said, it isn't rocket science, it's 'Virus 101'. We've known what to do since medieval times.
> 
> The problem is politics and the economy get in the way of doing what needs to be done. Imagine the uproar by both business and the public if Trudeau had done what should have been done on January 15th when the first case was reported in Canada. Close down all international travel except for returning Canadians and then mandatory quarantine for all returnees from then on.
> 
> The public has to be spoon fed in small doses as was done, or they will be unable to accept what has to happen. In spoon feeding us, we were condemned to what we have got, far more cases than actually had to happen if we had just had the whole enchilada rammed down our throats and we were told to swallow it.
> 
> To be fair to Canada and all levels of government, pretty much every country has had to do the same things. ie. spoon feed


Agreed. When I said 'very little information was out there' I should have said the government provided very little direction or guidance for travelers. I have the first hand accounts of friends and family that returned to Canada in the first weeks of March. There was very little or any information or changes in protocol for travelers. 

I wasn't in favour of a travel ban in January or even February, but rather more restrictions on those coming in such as quarantine. That would have limited many travelers at the thought of having to quarantine when returning (maybe). I also think we should have closed our borders to the US earlier. 

The point is there were a lot of other things that the government could have done even if they didn't want to ban international travel.


----------



## sags

Unless people were living in the bush with no outside communication, they knew about the virus and decided to go anyways. 

I wouldn't expect such people to honor a self quarantine period, and many didn't and infected other Canadians.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Unless people were living in the bush with no outside communication, they knew about the virus and decided to go anyways.
> 
> I wouldn't expect such people to honor a self quarantine period, and many didn't and infected other Canadians.


Unfortunately, that is true of some and the reason why the RCMP had to be asked to enforce it as of April 10th.









Unclear if Cowichan couple refusing to self-isolate facing penalty; details of Quarantine Act still being worked out – Cowichan Valley Citizen


No fines or charges have been laid to date, including Cowichan couple who won’t self isolate




www.cowichanvalleycitizen.com


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> Sure LTA, and then the conservative media would be railing against Liberal "fascism" just as they are doing right now.


Stopping flights earlier and taking precautions is far different than Trudeau's attempted power grab to give his government complete unaccountable control until 2022. Perhaps you don't understand the difference?


----------



## Longtimeago

Prairie Guy said:


> Stopping flights earlier and taking precautions is far different than Trudeau's attempted power grab to give his government complete unaccountable control until 2022. Perhaps you don't understand the difference?


Perhaps you don't understand this thread is about the virus and your focus on your own limited political ranting is not.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Longtimeago said:


> Perhaps you don't understand this thread is about the virus and your focus on your own limited political ranting is not.


Sorry. I guess it's okay to take shots at Rob Ford's actions during this, but Trudeau is off limits. I'll try to do better.


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> Sorry. I guess it's okay to take shots at Rob Ford's actions during this, but Trudeau is off limits. I'll try to do better.


rob's dead.

Doug Ford is the Premier, and he's doing a darn good job.
There is very little criticism of what he's doing, the biggest issues are due to the longstanding structural problems in our long term care system, and even on that they were working on a new plan before this hit.


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> Unless people were living in the bush with no outside communication, they knew about the virus and decided to go anyways.
> 
> I wouldn't expect such people to honor a self quarantine period, and many didn't and infected other Canadians.


I wasn't only referring to information on whether people should go on their trips or not, there was information there. The government did a non existing job of telling travelers when they returned if they should have ANY precautions. The first case in my city was a person that came of the cruise ship. She arrived, went to work the next week along with going around doing her normal errands for almost a week. 

I disagree that people who went on trips would not have self quarantined if told after. They didn't know if they needed to. We had many conversations on what should be done if you were coming from a place with low infection. They were told NOTHING. 

You are correct not everyone will follow the orders. That's a compliance issue. There are many people that will follow the guidance, if given the guidance. Most people in my city are self isoloating because the order was issued. Prior to that, people were left to figure it out on their own. If the government doesn't issue orders or guidance, then they have failed.


----------



## Prairie Guy

MrMatt said:


> rob's dead.
> 
> Doug Ford is the Premier, and he's doing a darn good job.
> There is very little criticism of what he's doing, the biggest issues are due to the longstanding structural problems in our long term care system, and even on that they were working on a new plan before this hit.


I meant Doug, sorry. I also think he's doing a fine job...a lot better than Trudeau.


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> I meant Doug, sorry. I also think he's doing a fine job...a lot better than Trudeau.


I think that's the consensus from everyone, even Freeland has said she has an excellent relationship with him.
I really hope she takes over from Trudeau, I might disagree with Liberal policy, but I'd prefer a competent person to the arrogant narcissist we have now.


----------



## sags

Ford has a better relationship with the Liberals than he does with the Conservatives.


----------



## sags

COVID has some weird symptoms.

Blood clotting and internal bleeding.........so doctors don't know how to treat them.

More knowledge is needed before millions of potential victims are exposed to the virus.

Big lineup at the testing center today. It must mean there are a lot of people who suspect they have the virus.

Now is not the time for acting irrationally and foolishly congregating together.

Stay home......stay safe.


----------



## sags

This is what COVID does to healthy 41 year olds. To those who want to go out and about......are you sure you would be ready for that ?










Nick Cordero's Wife Opens Up About Tracheostomy Procedure He'll Undergo That Will Remove Ventilator


"We've tried this before and some obstacles have come our way, but so far, so good today," Nick Cordero's wife, Amanda Kloots, said




people.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> COVID has some weird symptoms.
> 
> Blood clotting and internal bleeding.........so doctors don't know how to treat them.
> 
> More knowledge is needed before millions of potential victims are exposed to the virus.
> 
> Big lineup at the testing center today. It must mean there are a lot of people who suspect they have the virus.
> 
> Now is not the time for acting irrationally and foolishly congregating together.
> 
> Stay home......stay safe.


Are you just learning this now?
These effects have been documented for well over a month.

The reality is that the strain of the lockdown is getting really bad, only 2 months in we're at the amount of economic damage as a full year of the Great Depression.

Companies are collapsing, jobs are disappearing, people are starving and not getting the medical care they need. 

I'm not saying open up today, but in Ontario we're at only a few hundred new cases a day.
In London we've rarely broken a dozen new cases in a day.

The spread is low, a bit lower and we have to start back up, or more people will die.


----------



## andrewf

Prairie Guy said:


> Sorry. I guess it's okay to take shots at Rob Ford's actions during this, but Trudeau is off limits. I'll try to do better.


Hypocrisy. You are a monotonous drum-beater for Trump. It's not clear to me that you contribute anything to this forum other than Trump defense.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> rob's dead.
> 
> Doug Ford is the Premier, and he's doing a darn good job.
> There is very little criticism of what he's doing, the biggest issues are due to the longstanding structural problems in our long term care system, and even on that they were working on a new plan before this hit.


Doug is enjoying a bit of a halo due to the crisis. He really made a hash of his first years in office. Here's hoping he does better in future.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Doug is enjoying a bit of a halo due to the crisis. He really made a hash of his first years in office. Here's hoping he does better in future.


He didn't get enough done, if he would have had time to finish the revamp of long term care, he would have been able to save some lives.


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> Hypocrisy. You are a monotonous drum-beater for Trump. It's not clear to me that you contribute anything to this forum other than Trump defense.


 ... the Ultimate one. It's pretty amazing how much this poster who's assumingly from* SK* (based on his handle "Prairies"), "*Canada*" is so interested or in-love with the "POST*USA*" and "*municipal* politics" or another province???? Reminds me of pretty-boy Nelly.


----------



## Mukhang pera




----------



## Prairie Guy

Beaver101 said:


> ... the Ultimate one. It's pretty amazing how much this poster who's assumingly from* SK* (based on his handle "Prairies"), "*Canada*" is so interested or in-love with the "POST*USA*" and "*municipal* politics" or another province???? Reminds me of pretty-boy Nelly.


Every time one of you is corrected for posting false information you attack the messenger.


----------



## Mukhang pera




----------



## andrewf

Perhaps a baby wouldn't understand.


----------



## Prairie Guy

They've moved the goalposts from "flattening the curve" to "herd immunity" to "we must have a vaccine". It seems that the so-called experts have no clue.


----------



## sags

The recommendations change as the science evolves. There is still a lot we don't know about the virus.


----------



## Eclectic12

Plugging Along said:


> This was one of the biggest fails the government is for travelers. I understand that they did not want to lock down the borders, but they could have made isolation mandatory.
> 
> The official orders for travels to isolate wasn't until March 12/13.
> 
> There were no clear instructions other than if you were coming from a hotspot prior to then to watch your symptoms and stay if home you get symptoms ... The government didn't need to do a full travel ban at that time, but there could have done a lot better in relaying information and putting restrictions on.


With the benefit of hind sight ... it would have been better for the gov't to be more aggressive.

At the same time, there seems to have been lots of variation. As I say, on March 15th we were told to self-quarantine _if_ symptoms showed. We planned to do this before we left the country. The question is ... was this the border agency not communicating the right info and/or particular agents not following through?

March 13th is also when Trudeau asked Canadians to avoid non-essential travel, with no restrictions I can see on where one was going. Government asks Canadians to avoid all non-essential international travel


Part of the challenge is that those of us who were concerned and chose to take aggressive actions didn't have to consider the impacts the gov't would have to be prepared for.

In theory, everyone should be aware of the seriousness yet protestors in Ottawa had their kids holding signs saying "I am not at risk - let me out". This ignores that young folks can be affected and even if they aren't, they can spread the virus.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

Longtimeago said:


> Unfortunately, that is true of some and the reason why the RCMP had to be asked to enforce it as of April 10th ...


Some were noticing and complaining a lot earlier. Coronavirus: Brockville police to crack down on overnight parking lot use by returning travellers

Cheers


----------



## Longtimeago

So the easing of restrictions begins today and we will see what we will see.

The risk of contracting the virus for any given individual has NOT decreased at all. So what will matter is how many interactions a person has and how well distancing is maintained. Risk to an individual vs. staying home will be increased, that's simply a fact.

Another aspect of easing is how effective it will be in keeping a business alive. That is in fact what the easing is about. But if say a restaurant can only seat 25% of tables which is a number commonly being suggested, how many can survive on only 25% of their previous sales? It will be similar for most small businesses. Some estimates suggest that as many as 40% of all small businesses will end up permanently out of business. When would or could this 25% ever change? Only when we have a vaccine?

Another aspect I don't think a lot of people are considering is how many people are in the 'high risk' group if they return to work or go to the beach or restaurant etc. It is not 10-20% of the population as some seem to think. It is over 50% of the population who are at 'high risk' of a serious reaction to the virus. So consider this choice. Someone with asthma (high risk and includes 10% of all Canadians) or obesity (25%), gets a call saying they can go back to work. Should they go? If they don't go, who will be working, only the 50% who are at reduced risk? Can a business operate with only 50% of employees showing up for work?

People who just want to get out to the beach or the golf course may be happy about easing, but they may not be considering just how limited easing will be for anything else in their lives.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> The risk of contracting the virus for any given individual has NOT decreased at all.


And this belief of yours is based on?


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> And this belief of yours is based on?


Umm, common sense? Why would you think otherwise? The virus is as contagious today as it was on day one. The virus has not changed, nor has our risk of contagion if exposed to it.

I think you are confusing the individual's risk of CONTAGION if exposed, with the risk of EXPOSURE. By staying home and maintaining distancing, you reduce the risk of EXPOSURE which is a good thing but you do not reduce the risk of CONTAGION if exposed.

So if easing leads to more exposure, then it must lead to more contagion.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Umm, common sense? Why would you think otherwise? The virus is as contagious today as it was on day one. The virus has not changed, nor has our risk of contagion if exposed to it.


Well if the number of infected (based on daily new cases) has decreased significantly wouldn't the risk also decrease?


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Well if the number of infected (based on daily new cases) has decreased significantly wouldn't the risk also decrease?


Cainvest, I don't know if you really don't understand the difference between the risk of contagion vs the risk of exposure, or if you are being deliberately obtuse.

1. Contagion risk can vary from low to high. A low risk of contagion might only infect 10 people in a hundred if you exposed 100 to the virus. A high risk of contagion virus might infect 90 if you exposed 100 people to it. Covid-19 is a high risk of contagion virus. But regardless of how low or high the risk of contagion might be, that rate of contagion does not change. It's 10 in 100 or 90 in a 100 for example and always will be.

2. Exposure risk can vary also from high to low. If you stay home then obviously you have a far lower risk of exposure than if you go out and interact in the 'normal' way with other people. 

We can limit exposure as we have done but we cannot limit the risk of contagion if exposed, EXCEPT with a vaccine.

When you see the number of cases decreasing, what that tells you is that you have been successful in limited EXPOSURE. It does not reduce the risk of CONTAGION if exposed.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> 2. Exposure risk can vary also from high to low. If you stay home then obviously you have a far lower risk of exposure than if you go out and interact in the 'normal' way with other people.


With less infected around your risk for getting infected decreases ... yes, it's that simple.


----------



## sags

Some US states opened up a little, and one local police force issued 8,000 warnings to people failing to follow social distancing protocols.

Singapore opened up and are now facing a 2nd wave much worse than the first one. Japan.....same thing.

I am betting the US states start seeing community spread again and end up closing. Then they get to play "chase the virus" again.


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> I am betting the US states start seeing community spread again and end up closing. Then they get to play "chase the virus" again.


 And therein lies the rub. Until the majority of people have been exposed and been infected (with one of several possible outcomes), of course we'll see community spreading. Nothing has changed. No vaccine. No cure. And thoughts of those are pie in the sky. 

So we maintain lockdown for many years or we decide to yield and let nature take its course. Should we adopt the latter course (the better one in my view), there will be some survivors, the herd will have been thinned and natural selection will have taken place as nature intended.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> With less infected around your risk for getting infected decreases ... yes, it's that simple.


It appears you really don't understand the difference. I can't help you.

If you think there are less infected around and the risk of contracting the virus is lower than it was say a month ago, you are living in an alternate reality.


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> And therein lies the rub. Until the majority of people have been exposed and been infected (with one of several possible outcomes), of course we'll see community spreading. Nothing has changed. No vaccine. No cure. And thoughts of those are pie in the sky.
> 
> So we maintain lockdown for many years or we decide to yield and let nature take its course. Should we adopt the latter course (the better one in my view), there will be some survivors, the herd will have been thinned and natural selection will have taken place as nature intended.


The problem with JUMPING to that answer Mukhang pera is that roughly 50% of all people are in fact in the 'high risk' category of serious outcomes if they become infected. Since we cannot prepare to deal with that high a percentage having to be hospitalized, that would mean just leaving them in their homes to live or die.

Even if we let that happen, what about those that have a serious outcome but do not die? How does our society continue to function if a huge percentage of the population is no longer able to work? Do we let nature move us back to say a hunter/gatherer society where we all produce our own food for survival?

Before we make that choice, would it not seem more reasonable to at least wait a while to see if we can find a vaccine or cure? Our economy might end up in tatters if it takes several years but we wont' be any worse of than if we just give up and let the virus loose to run it's course.

I've long believed that the world's biggest problem is population control and I've also long believed that nature will restore the balance regardless of how humans attempt to stop it from doing so. HOWEVER, I don't want it to happen before I am ready to 'shuffle off this mortal coil' as the bard put it. Selfish I know, but I'm fine with selfish when it comes to my own life.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> It appears you really don't understand the difference. I can't help you.
> 
> If you think there are less infected around and the risk of contracting the virus is lower than it was say a month ago, you are living in an alternate reality.


There are less infected around in MB, hense the re-opening today. It would appear the number of new cases is a key point that the medical experts use to determine if re-opening is ok but obviously not a good enough metric for you.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> I've long believed that the world's biggest problem is population control and I've also long believed that nature will restore the balance regardless of how humans attempt to stop it from doing so. HOWEVER, I don't want it to happen before I am ready to 'shuffle off this mortal coil' as the bard put it. Selfish I know, but I'm fine with selfish when it comes to my own life.


I share that belief. Mother Nature has tried hard, with things like ebola, HIV, etc. C-19 is her latest venture. Maybe this time she has her ducks in a row. I am behind you in age, but not by a whole lot. So I am likely to perish if I get the bug. That's okay. I have had a lot of good years. Every day I see people much, much younger than I die off due to illness, accident, misadventure, whatever. I have been blessed. So I'll try to go in good grace.


----------



## :) lonewolf

sags said:


> Nah.......a week would be too long apart LTA.
> 
> It would have to be every morning and police would have to drive around forcing people to take the test.
> 
> There are only 3 legitimate options. A treatment, a vaccine, and everyone wearing a hazmat suit.


 All vaccines should be banned to reduce the possibilities of WHO & pharma from making profits by using biological warfare. The globalists want to reduce the population & shut down the economy, the politicians want to be dictators & the people want to follow. Eliminate all social distancing, house arrests & vaccines we will reduce deaths.


----------



## sags

Andrew Scheer wants the government to cut back on CERB benefits to force people to work.

This........from a life long political hack who earns more than $20,000 a month for doing what.......a meeting a week ?

Scheer has earned over $3 million since he was elected in 2005 as a 25 year old.

This is a guy who flies his family across the country at tax payer expense, and pays his kids tuition from a Conservative slush fund.

The sooner this buffoon is gone the better for the Conservatives. This guy is so tone deaf he can't hear anything.

Go back to Regina Andy...........you aren't needed in Ottawa.


----------



## mrbizi

Longtimeago said:


> The problem with JUMPING to that answer Mukhang pera is that roughly 50% of all people are in fact in the 'high risk' category of serious outcomes if they become infected. Since we cannot prepare to deal with that high a percentage having to be hospitalized, that would mean just leaving them in their homes to live or die.
> 
> Even if we let that happen, what about those that have a serious outcome but do not die? How does our society continue to function if a huge percentage of the population is no longer able to work? Do we let nature move us back to say a hunter/gatherer society where we all produce our own food for survival?
> 
> Before we make that choice, would it not seem more reasonable to at least wait a while to see if we can find a vaccine or cure? Our economy might end up in tatters if it takes several years but we wont' be any worse of than if we just give up and let the virus loose to run it's course.


Hi LTA,

You mention above “50% are at a high risk of serious outcome”. Much of what I’ve read have stated that ~95%-97% experience “mild symptoms”. This does not even include the people who hardly experience any symptoms at all (but probably have the virus already). Just curious what is your source?

I’m in favour of the lockdown, but I also think, as long as the health care system isn’t being overwhelmed, it’s worth the risk to slowly open up the economy.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Andrew Scheer wants the government to cut back on CERB benefits to force people to work.
> 
> This........from a life long political hack who earns more than $20,000 a month for doing what.......a meeting a week ?
> 
> Scheer has earned over $3 million since he was elected in 2005 as a 25 year old.
> 
> This is a guy who flies his family across the country at tax payer expense, and pays his kids tuition from a Conservative slush fund.
> 
> The sooner this buffoon is gone the better for the Conservatives. This guy is so tone deaf he can't hear anything.
> 
> Go back to Regina Andy...........you aren't needed in Ottawa.


The problem with CERB is that it encourages people to stay home.
They really should have built a program that helps people, but doesn't have horrible clawbacks that discourage returning to work.

Parlimentary leaders SHOULD travel the country meeting with people at taxpayer expense. It's literally their job to represent Canadians, and they should be provided the resources to do so.
I said that the opposition should be given the resources to do their job when Harper was in power, and I'll say it now that Trudeau is in power.

I even think the NDP should have more access to government resources to do their job effectively.


I do agree Scheer has to go, but Trudeau has to go too.
Scheer was misusing party funds, Trudeau is accepting bribes. Our country deserves better.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> They really should have built a program that helps people, but doesn't have horrible clawbacks that discourage returning to work.


This is why I was saying it should have been a loan...


----------



## sags

I suspect the "going back to work party" isn't going to last very long.

Researchers say that based on the known statistics, the likelihood of infection while riding a subway car in Atlanta, Georgia is 20%.

To everyone chomping at the bit to go out.......move fast and travel light.


----------



## Longtimeago

mrbizi said:


> Hi LTA,
> 
> You mention above “50% are at a high risk of serious outcome”. Much of what I’ve read have stated that ~95%-97% experience “mild symptoms”. This does not even include the people who hardly experience any symptoms at all (but probably have the virus already). Just curious what is your source?
> 
> I’m in favour of the lockdown, but I also think, as long as the health care system isn’t being overwhelmed, it’s worth the risk to slowly open up the economy.


Those at higher risk fall into 2 categories mrbizi. Those at high risk by age, the elderly and those at high risk due to underlying conditions like respiratory, heart, diabetes, obesity, etc. It is the second category that some people are not considering. If you look at how many that category includes of ALL ages, you quickly see how it covers 50% or more of the entire population.

When looking at outcomes, you have to consider two things as well. Recovery rates and 'serious outcomes'. If someone recovers but has permanent lung damage, where do you want to count them? Will they ever actually be 'recovered'?

From the beginning they have been telling us that 80% will experience 'mild' outcomes. Those vary from not even showing any symptoms to a flu like reaction with no permanent effects afterwards. Consider though the 20% who will experience 'serious outcomes'. They are the ones who may end up with permanent damage of some kind. It is not just the death rate that matters. So 50%+ of the population has a 20% risk of serious outcome if they contract the virus. 

I think that recovery rates are being read as meaning 100% recovered, what we are not being told is how many are not ever going to be 100% recovered. While that number or percentage of people is not as bad as those who die, it is also not something that should be ignored. I wouldn't want to be a 35 year old with permanent lung damage that reduces my lung capacity by say 40% or something. That's like a slow death sentence in a way. You can't say, 'you might as well be dead' but then again, maybe you can.

There are a lot more people in that potential category than people realize who have just heard the 80% mild, 20% serious outcome that we started out hearing about.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I suspect the "going back to work party" isn't going to last very long.
> 
> Researchers say that based on the known statistics, the likelihood of infection while riding a subway car in Atlanta, Georgia is 20%.
> 
> To everyone chomping at the bit to go out.......move fast and travel light.


Don't ride on a Georgia subway then.
High density urban living is a health hazard, we've known this for decades




andrewf said:


> This is why I was saying it should have been a loan...


I'm concerned that overly indebted consumers wouldn't actually be helped by the loan. 
I'd rather a simple handout to everyone, it would have been much cleaner, more fair, and helped everyone.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Don't ride on a Georgia subway then.
> High density urban living is a health hazard, we've known this for decades
> 
> 
> 
> I'm concerned that overly indebted consumers wouldn't actually be helped by the loan.
> I'd rather a simple handout to everyone, it would have been much cleaner, more fair, and helped everyone.


Not everyone needs financial help MrMatt. I'm fine with a handout to those in need, I would probably have determined 'need' however in a different way. Based on income, not just 'out of work due to Covid-19.' In other words, those I deemed should have savings to fall back on, would not get a dime. I don't want to help 'overly indebted consumers'. I would be happy to let them suffer and learn a lesson. As it is, all they learn is that someone else will bail them out.


----------



## sags

Where is the senior CERB ? It was promised but vanished into the night.

The Liberals want to maintain the CERB as is.

The Conservatives want to eliminate the CERB.

The NDP want to give the CERB to everyone.

Vote NDP..........and the sun will shine, the birds will sing, and the sound of children's laughter will be heard near and far.

It is glorious days to be a socialist comrades.


----------



## Longtimeago

Today I heard on the news that a poll shows a majority of people are happy with the 'pace' we are moving at in 're-opening' in most provinces.

When they use words like 'pace' and 're-opening', what they indicate to me is that you end up back where you started. That is at 100% 're-opened'. Anyone know how we are supposed to get there? Be specific please.

Step 1, we let a restaurant seat 25% of tables and maintain distancing. Step 2? Step 3? 'Pace' doesn't just mean 1 step does it? 'Re-open' doesn't just mean 25% re-opened does it?

At what point do we have stadiums full of sports fans again? What will tell us it is OK to do that? Be specific please. 

At what point will international travel for vacations be opened up around the world? Be specific please.

My point is that unless we have a vaccine/cure, I do not see 're-opening' to 100% happening at all.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Today I heard on the news that a poll shows a majority of people are happy with the 'pace' we are moving at in 're-opening' in most provinces.
> 
> When they use words like 'pace' and 're-opening', what they indicate to me is that you end up back where you started. That is at 100% 're-opened'. Anyone know how we are supposed to get there? Be specific please.


When the number of new cases drops to zero for a period of time or a vaccine is created. There is no specific timetable here, it will be based on the number of reported cases.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Not everyone needs financial help MrMatt. I'm fine with a handout to those in need, I would probably have determined 'need' however in a different way. Based on income, not just 'out of work due to Covid-19.' In other words, those I deemed should have savings to fall back on, would not get a dime. I don't want to help 'overly indebted consumers'. I would be happy to let them suffer and learn a lesson. As it is, all they learn is that someone else will bail them out.


I would like that, but the current system misses many who are in need, and disincentivises people to return to work.

If we're going to build a generational debt, based on handouts, I'd like to make sure that we hit everyone who has need, and it doesn't disincetivise work. As implemented it is fundamentally unfair, and damaging to the country. 

I'm not as concerned that it's confusing, heavy in red tape, and very poorly administered.


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> Where is the senior CERB ? It was promised but vanished into the night.
> 
> The Liberals want to maintain the CERB as is.
> 
> The Conservatives want to eliminate the CERB.
> 
> The NDP want to give the CERB to everyone.
> 
> Vote NDP..........and the sun will shine, the birds will sing, and the sound of children's laughter will be heard near and far.
> 
> It is glorious days to be a socialist comrades.


I assure you our children and their children will not be laughing as there will be decades of them paying this off. The more we give without any thinking, the more our kids and grandkids will be forced to pay. We are robbing our kids futures.

My 14 year old even asked where all of this money is coming from. She said 'Surely, the people like you that are still working cannot cover off all the debt. ' Then said she said this isn't great incentive for her to get her first job next as she will be paying this bill. I didn't have the heart to tell her that it would she may be paying this bill even if she doesn't get her first job in her 20's.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> andrewf said:
> 
> 
> 
> Doug is enjoying a bit of a halo due to the crisis. He really made a hash of his first years in office. Here's hoping he does better in future.
> 
> 
> 
> He didn't get enough done, if he would have had time to finish the revamp of long term care, he would have been able to save some lives.
Click to expand...

Can you point me to the pre-covid LTC revamp that was started but didn't go far enough?

AFAICT ... it wasn't until covid that anything other than politics as usual was happening on the LTC front.


Or are you saying Ford should have brought in things like "work at one LTC home only" back in March when several local LTC homes in my area did?


Cheers


----------



## sags

Plugging Along said:


> I assure you our children and their children will not be laughing as there will be decades of them paying this off. The more we give without any thinking, the more our kids and grandkids will be forced to pay. We are robbing our kids futures.
> 
> My 14 year old even asked where all of this money is coming from. She said 'Surely, the people like you that are still working cannot cover off all the debt. ' Then said she said this isn't great incentive for her to get her first job next as she will be paying this bill. I didn't have the heart to tell her that it would she may be paying this bill even if she doesn't get her first job in her 20's.


Sovereign debt is not comparable and shouldn't be considered in the same context as consumer household debt.

It would be impossible to discuss all the avenues available to countries dealing with their debt, and often involve political decisions.

A fuller explanation can be found within a study of macro economics. The Khan Academy offers a very good free program on the subject.









Macroeconomics | Economics | Khan Academy


Macroeconomics is about whole economies. What is GDP? Why does the economy boom and bust? How is the government involved? We hit the traditional topics from a college-level macroeconomics course.




www.khanacademy.org


----------



## sags

I don't think Ontario is anywhere close to reopening the economy.

A new outbreak in a hospital in Toronto has caused the hospital to close to new admissions.

This virus hasn't gone away. It is still lurking and infecting people in large numbers quickly.









46 staff, 19 patients test positive in Toronto Western Hospital outbreaks


Two people have died and dozens of staff and patients are sick in a coronavirus outbreak at a downtown Toronto hospital.




torontosun.com


----------



## sags

In a bit of possible good news, the drug company Pfizer has announced it is already conducting human trials for their vaccine.

The company joins 8 other companies globally in human vaccine testing, with about 100 other vaccine candidates in the pipeline.

Progress is quick when research money is not an impediment and the combined force of the latest technology and science is available.









Pfizer begins human testing for experimental coronavirus vaccine in the US


The U.S.-based company, which is working alongside German drugmaker BioNTech, said the first human participants in the United States have been dosed with the potential vaccine, BNT162.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Sovereign debt is not comparable and shouldn't be considered in the same context as consumer household debt.
> 
> It would be impossible to discuss all the avenues available to countries dealing with their debt, and often involve political decisions.
> 
> A fuller explanation can be found within a study of macro economics. The Khan Academy offers a very good free program on the subject.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Macroeconomics | Economics | Khan Academy
> 
> 
> Macroeconomics is about whole economies. What is GDP? Why does the economy boom and bust? How is the government involved? We hit the traditional topics from a college-level macroeconomics course.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.khanacademy.org


You have to be pretty "educated" to believe that it's a good idea to owe more than you can ever pay back.


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> Sovereign debt is not comparable and shouldn't be considered in the same context as consumer household debt.
> 
> It would be impossible to discuss all the avenues available to countries dealing with their debt, and often involve political decisions.
> 
> A fuller explanation can be found within a study of macro economics. The Khan Academy offers a very good free program on the subject.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Macroeconomics | Economics | Khan Academy
> 
> 
> Macroeconomics is about whole economies. What is GDP? Why does the economy boom and bust? How is the government involved? We hit the traditional topics from a college-level macroeconomics course.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.khanacademy.org



I won’t get ‘educated’ using Khan in this case. I have a minor in economics. I don’t get into debates here about fiscal policy because it’s not worth my effort to argue with people that get their information primarily from simplified versions of google. The simplied version, too much debt it bad even if it its sovereign debt .


----------



## junior minor

Well perhaps you could give us your advice on this. I'm neither a naysayer nor a prophet of doom, I just like to prepare for worse while wishing for the best. Some people are saying that what saved the economy, besides WW2, after the 1930's depression, was the fact that people would buy lots of american goods and it was unlikely to happen this time.

Perhaps we can never really recover(even though I've been scratching my head wondering how bad it can be, since Canada is a huge granary)especially if the war lands here.

This graphic brags about the fact everything is going to be flat, inflation wise, until 2060. I highly doubt this can be true. US Inflation Forecast: 2020, 2021 and Long Term to 2060 | Data and Charts - knoema.com

Doesn't take a rocket science degree to figure it's probably a very tory estimate.


----------



## MrMatt

junior minor said:


> Well perhaps you could give us your advice on this. I'm neither a naysayer nor a prophet of doom, I just like to prepare for worse while wishing for the best. Some people are saying that what saved the economy, besides WW2, after the 1930's depression, was the fact that people would buy lots of american goods and it was unlikely to happen this time.
> 
> Perhaps we can never really recover(even though I've been scratching my head wondering how bad it can be, since Canada is a huge granary)especially if the war lands here.
> 
> This graphic brags about the fact everything is going to be flat, inflation wise, until 2060. I highly doubt this can be true. US Inflation Forecast: 2020, 2021 and Long Term to 2060 | Data and Charts - knoema.com
> 
> Doesn't take a rocket science degree to figure it's probably a very tory estimate.


Inflation is coming.

The pressure for the government to spend ever more is increasing, they will have to print money.
The alternative is deflation.

The problem is the typical person doesn't understand why inflation is bad. They barely understand basic economics.


----------



## MrMatt

They just found COVID19 in France, from December. How long was this Chinese coverup going on?


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> They just found COVID19 in France, from December. How long was this Chinese coverup going on?


Or was it a French coverup?👩‍🎨🇫🇷


----------



## sags

_Without relief, many households will go bust. Their incomes will shrink or vanish, and they will default on mortgages, rent payments and car bills. Meanwhile, many restaurants, retail stores, travel operators, malls, hotels and airlines will tumble into bankruptcy. With all those employers gone, many workers will not have jobs to go back to when the virus does come under control. The slump could stretch on for years and turn into a full-on depression.

Generous government support can help prevent this ugly scenario by ensuring we still have a functioning economy whenever life does return to normal. For most economists, the logic is inarguable: No matter how expensive an outpouring of government aid may seem right now, it is cheaper than dealing with a depression down the road.

Should we worry about the long-term effects of this new borrowing? Without question, the new debt will leave taxpayers with a significantly larger burden to carry in years to come.

But so long as financial conditions remain similar to today’s, the burden should not be overwhelming. *“The Canadian government has the space to deliver stimulus on this scale,” DBRS researchers assured investors in a report this week.* “*The federal government is entering the crisis with a modest fiscal deficit, relatively low levels of debt, and funding costs that are negative in real terms.”*










Pandemic debt: Countries are spending trillions to save the economy from the coronavirus crisis. Can the world afford it?


The nightmare scenario is one where the virus continues to suffocate the global economy for a year or more




www.theglobeandmail.com




_


----------



## sags

Inflation makes it easier to pay off debt.

Every $1 of debt in 1920 would cost 7 cents to pay off today.









$1 in 1920 → 2022 | Inflation Calculator


The 2.68% inflation rate means $1 in 1920 is equivalent to $14.84 today. This inflation calculator uses the official US consumer price index published by the Department of Labor.




www.in2013dollars.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Inflation makes it easier to pay off debt.
> 
> Every $1 of debt in 1920 would cost 7 cents to pay off today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> $1 in 1920 → 2022 | Inflation Calculator
> 
> 
> The 2.68% inflation rate means $1 in 1920 is equivalent to $14.84 today. This inflation calculator uses the official US consumer price index published by the Department of Labor.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.in2013dollars.com


No, every $1 of debt in 1920 would cost $1 to pay off today, plus an insane amount of interest paid along the way.

I think it's clear how you can have certain policy beliefs, you don't actually understand how money works.


----------



## sags

In the climate change thread I posted how scientists were concerned that the thawing tundra could release ancient pathogens that we have no immunity from.

At the time it seemed so "other worldly" a concept, and governments, business and many people didn't have much interest in it.

And yet here we are. It doesn't sound like climate change had anything to do with the COVID virus but who really knows how it started.

We don't even know where it started yet.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> In the climate change thread I posted how scientists were concerned that the thawing tundra could release ancient pathogens that we have no immunity from.
> 
> At the time it seemed so "other worldly" a concept, and governments, business and many people didn't have much interest in it.
> 
> And yet here we are. It doesn't sound like climate change had anything to do with the COVID virus but who really knows how it started.
> 
> We don't even know where it started yet.


We don't know, but it seems like a pretty typical animal -> human jump.
This happens all the time, it's a normal occurrence.

That's why there is significant research into tracking zoonotic diseases, there was a great documentary on some of the Swine flu research. I think it was on netflix.

I find it interesting that you're so suprised by "other worldly" things that are really quite normal, known and predictable.


----------



## sags

The transmission from bat to human is only part of the story. How did the virus infect the bat ? What is the origin of the virus ?

I would say the COVID virus hasn't been very predictable. We still don't know much about it.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The transmission from bat to human is only part of the story. How did the virus infect the bat ? What is the origin of the virus ?
> 
> I would say the COVID virus hasn't been very predictable. We still don't know much about it.


There are lots of Coronaviruses (and other viruses) out there, in all sorts of different species.

Where did it originally come from? Same place as all the other virii, bacteria, plants and animals on the planet. We're a complex web of organisms that are constantly evolving and changing.

It almost sounds like you didn't know that you've had a Coronavirus several times, likely at least once a year for your entire life. These viruses are very common. You seem to think COVID19 is something new and unusual, it's just a slightly different strain that appears to cause particularly bad pneumonia.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> There are lots of Coronaviruses (and other viruses) out there, in all sorts of different species.
> 
> Where did it originally come from? Same place as all the other virii, bacteria, plants and animals on the planet. We're a complex web of organisms that are constantly evolving and changing.
> 
> It almost sounds like you didn't know that you've had a Coronavirus several times, likely at least once a year for your entire life. These viruses are very common. You seem to think COVID19 is something new and unusual, it's just a slightly different strain that appears to cause particularly bad pneumonia.


Covid19 is new.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Covid19 is new.


Technically yes, it is "new" in that it seems to be a family of strains that infect humans.
However Coronaviruses in general are incredibly common.

Most viruses regularly split off and make new strains.
Even COVID19 now has multiple distinct substrains.

The reality is there are innumerable strains of the Coronavirus, and we simply ignore them, because they seem to pose no risk.
Now we all know about SARS, and the various COVID19 strains because we are scared of them. There is nothing unusual, just that they're more lethal than normal.
This is just like the difference between the seasonal flus most people ignore and the pandemics like the Avian or Swine flu.

When the seasonal flu comes around is everyone going to call it "the noveau influenza" and freak out, because it's a 'new strain". They didn't before


----------



## Longtimeago

What is going on?
All the provinces apparently agreed on a set of guidelines they would use when easing up. Now Quebec is opening up when they don't meet those guidelines. They aren't even on the downside of the curve! 

What's more, they are sending children back to school when they have just had an outbreak in a daycare, north of Montreal.

It seems like pressure from business to re-open is driving the bus, not science.








16 infected north of Montreal in Quebec's first COVID-19 outbreak in a daycare


Quebec has now seen its first COVID-19 outbreak at a daycare — at a facility in Mascouche, in the Lanaudiere region just north of Montreal. Twelve children and four staff have tested positive.



montreal.ctvnews.ca





If I had children, there is no way I would want them going back to school. But I can see parents being put in the position of having to send them to school and go back to work, or lose their jobs if they refuse.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> sags said:
> 
> 
> 
> The transmission from bat to human is only part of the story. How did the virus infect the bat ? What is the origin of the virus ?
> 
> 
> 
> There are lots of Coronaviruses (and other viruses) out there, in all sorts of different species ...
Click to expand...

+1.

University types have been studying them a long time. The one interviewed on a BBC radio program was fascinated when she learned of them in the '80s and have been studying them ever since.




MrMatt said:


> .... Where did it originally come from?











How China’s ‘Bat Woman’ Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus


Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out there




www.scientificamerican.com













Coronaviruses and bats have been evolving together for millions of years: Different groups of bats have their own unique strains of coronavirus


Scientists compared the different kinds of coronaviruses living in 36 bat species from the western Indian Ocean and nearby areas of Africa. They found that different groups of bats have their own unique strains of coronavirus, revealing that bats and coronaviruses have been evolving together for...



www.sciencedaily.com






And if anyone thinks it specific to China, here's an article about corona virus detected in bats in North America.








Detection of Group 1 Coronaviruses in Bats in North America


The epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was caused by a newly emerged coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Bats of several species in southern People’s Republic of China harbor SARS-like CoVs and may be reservoir hosts for them. To determine ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov









MrMatt said:


> Money172375 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Covid19 is new.
> 
> 
> 
> ... Technically yes, it is "new" in that it seems to be a family of strains that infect humans.
> However Coronaviruses in general are incredibly common ...
Click to expand...

Agreed ... though there have been people studying them, even though there have been only a few versions so far that have infected humans.

Where there's more contact between humans and animals such as bats ... likely more corna virus will infect humans.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

Longtimeago said:


> What is going on?
> All the provinces apparently agreed on a set of guidelines they would use when easing up ... Now Quebec is opening up when they don't meet those guidelines. They aren't even on the downside of the curve! ... If I had children, there is no way I would want them going back to school ....


I guess you missed the Quebec parents saying they didn't want their kids to be guinea pigs and were keeping them home, no matter what the province said? Or the Quebec English school board that said they would re-open when they thought it was safe and not when the province said so?


Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Agreed ... though there have been people studying them, even though there have been only a few versions so far that have infected humans.
> 
> Where there's more contact between humans and animals such as bats ... likely more corna virus will infect humans.


There are many human infectious coronaviruses out there.

The common cold is often a Coronavirus.

This "something new" thing is just sensationalization.
This is worse than we've seen in a while, but it's a textbook example of a contagious biological agent.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> There are many human infectious coronaviruses out there.
> 
> The common cold is often a Coronavirus.
> 
> This "something new" thing is just sensationalization.
> This is worse than we've seen in a while, but it's a textbook example of a contagious biological agent.


“in a while”?????? It may not equal the number of deaths as the Spanish flu....but it’s likely the overall impact to health and the economy combined will be *THE* worst ever. If it’s true this thing is gonna be around for 2 years, then it’s still a sophomore in university. We’ve got a long way to go.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> “in a while”?????? It may not equal the number of deaths as the Spanish flu....but it’s likely the overall impact to health and the economy combined will be *THE* worst ever. If it’s true this thing is gonna be around for 2 years, then it’s still a sophomore in university. We’ve got a long way to go.


What I meant by "in a while" is that this type of outbreak should be an expected normal occurrence. They happen to greater or lesser extents throughout history.


Well the reason it's having a huge economic effect is the massive reaction by governments.
We've chosen to inflict massive generational damage to the global economy, rather than accept tens of millions of deaths.
If we simply let it run it's course, it would go through, kill a bunch of people, and the economic damage would be much less.

Rough calculations, it seems that 1% of Covid19 cases die, and 10% of Spanish flu cases or 3% of global population died.
If COVID19 infected every single person in the world, (which is unlikely) that would only be 1% of the global population, right now we're at some tiny fraction of that number.
You're actually saying that the impact of the COVID19 economic damage is worse than losing more than 2% of the global population. I'm not sure I'd make that claim at this point.
Though at some point, unless they fix the economic problems, we'll get to that level of harm.

That being said, I think it's incumbent on our political leaders to make sure they keep that in mind and don't inflict economic damage that is worse than losing 2% of the population to COVID19. As an aside, there are suggestions that there may be mass starvation, costing tens or hundreds of millions of lives due to economic damage currently underway.


----------



## sags

Vaccine, treatment or better PPE.

If none are discovered or created........the experts say to buckle down for the next 36 months.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Vaccine, treatment or better PPE.
> 
> If none are discovered or created........the experts say to buckle down for the next 36 months.


Matters what expert you're listening to.
If they try to keep this up for 3 years, the people will simply refuse to comply.

At that point the economic damage will be so severe that a 1% loss to COVID19 will look like a bargain.

We're at worse economic contraction rates than the great depression.
Do you know how many people will die if this continues? 
Do you even care?


Sure 3 years of lockdowns might stop COVID19, but the cost won't be worth it. 
We'd lose more people to the lockdown than would be saved.


No competent expert is actually recommending such a policy.


----------



## sags

Allowing the virus to run rampant won't leave an economy left to worry about.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> Allowing the virus to run rampant won't leave an economy left to worry about.


The economy will be fine, the majority of fatalities are old or have serious pre-existing conditions, and even in those groups it ranges from less than 1% to a few %. As the Diamond Princess showed...you can trap 3500 people in a cruise ship with the majority of them being 70 or older and just a half dozen or so will die. The risk of dying if you're under 50 without a serious health issue is less than that of the regular seasonal flu.

Shut down the economy for another 3 months and even the hard core Liberals will be wishing they had a gun to defend themselves.


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> The economy will be fine, the majority of fatalities are old or have serious pre-existing conditions, and even in those groups it ranges from less than 1% to a few %. As the Diamond Princess showed...you can trap 3500 people in a cruise ship with the majority of them being 70 or older and just a half dozen or so will die. The risk of dying if you're under 50 without a serious health issue is less than that of the regular seasonal flu.
> 
> Shut down the economy for another 3 months and even the hard core Liberals will be wishing they had a gun to defend themselves.


No, they'll call the police to protect them.
Case of Georgia man who was chased and killed while jogging will go to grand jury


----------



## sags

Remove your eyeglasses, wigs, and dentures, remain buckled in and seated, and keep your arms inside at all times.........this is going to be a bumpy ride.


----------



## :) lonewolf

Gates must be stopped by breaking up his monopoly on health. People have to get off their butt & take to pen & write thier representative. He is pushing his vaccine because there is no liability if he gets it wrong or inject some other substance with ID2020. The press will protect Gates & NEVER reveal what is in the vaccine. The people that have been bribed must be sued & face jail.


----------



## Money172375

Prairie Guy said:


> The economy will be fine, the majority of fatalities are old or have serious pre-existing conditions, and even in those groups it ranges from less than 1% to a few %. As the Diamond Princess showed...you can trap 3500 people in a cruise ship with the majority of them being 70 or older and just a half dozen or so will die. The risk of dying if you're under 50 without a serious health issue is less than that of the regular seasonal flu.
> 
> Shut down the economy for another 3 months and even the hard core Liberals will be wishing they had a gun to defend themselves.


here the districts medical officer says the case fatality rate is 5-10% in some countries. it appears the data is all over the place.









Got a pool? Yes, you can swim in it — with conditions — this summer, Simcoe Muskoka health unit says


But it may be more difficult to keep public pools and beaches open with current emergency rules in place.




www.simcoe.com


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> There are many human infectious coronaviruses out there.
> The common cold is often a Coronavirus ...


My understanding is that it's something like seven, where the most common result, barring SARS/MERS/COVID-19 is a low death rate. The low impact on a yearly basis is why investors have not been willing to fund the human trials for candidate vaccines that reached that stage. 

I'm not finding the original article but this one mentioned seven human ones. It says that four are community acquired where the results are typically mildcold-like symptoms in humans. Two of them, hCoV-OC43 and hCoV-229E, are said since around the 1960's to have triggered 10 to 30% of common colds.








A brief history of the coronavirus family -- including one pandemic we might have missed


Could the 1889-1890 pandemic have been the result of cow coronaviruses jumping to humans?




theconversation.com








MrMatt said:


> ... This "something new" thing is just sensationalization.
> This is worse than we've seen in a while, but it's a textbook example of a contagious biological agent.


IMO, it's sometimes that, sometimes compression down to a short sound bite, laziness and the unwillingness to investigate. Where one states they are new, what does one do with reports of forty years of study? Or the first ones being identified in the mid-1960's? Or scientific papers that talk about likely circulation among humans for hundreds of years?

Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> “in a while”?????? It may not equal the number of deaths as the Spanish flu....but it’s likely the overall impact to health and the economy combined will be *THE* worst ever ...


It's an interesting question .... how do we measure the economic impact of the Spanish flu?

Kelowna BC announced ...all Schools, public and private, Churches, Theaters, Moving Picture Halls, Pool Rooms and other places of amusement, and Lodge meetings, are to be closed until further notice. All public gatherings consisting of 10 or more are prohibited.

Des Moines, Iowa, announced ... all public places of amusement, including theaters, moving pictures houses, dance halls and public dancing places, pool and billiard halls, skating rinks, outdoor athletic events, all public congregating places subject to unusual congestion, be closed.

San Francisco had well-organized campaigns to quarantine all naval installations before the flu arrived, closed schools, banned social gatherings, closed public amusement places and mandated wearing masks. Believing masks that were claimed to 99% effective had been the key factor, businesses/theatre owners fought back against the ban on public gatherings. The loosening up of the ban is reported to have resulted in some of the highest death rates in the US.

Parts of Australia closed their internal borders.


Interestingly, it was the "Spanish" flu because Spain was neutral and wasn't censoring it's press. The US, Britain, Germany and France had it _before_ Spain but the censors kept it out of the press to keep it from affecting morale.


Cheers


----------



## Prairie Guy

Money172375 said:


> here the districts medical officer says the case fatality rate is 5-10% in some countries. it appears the data is all over the place.


What countries have a 10% fatality rate? Are those places that have tested very few people, perhaps only those who have shown obvious signs of sickness? 

Testing only sick people is not an accurate measure of the fatality rate...why would a medical expert make such a claim? Places that tested for antibodies are showing a fatality rate as low as 0.001% or lower.


----------



## :) lonewolf

Money172375 said:


> here the districts medical officer says the case fatality rate is 5-10% in some countries. it appears the data is all over the place.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Got a pool? Yes, you can swim in it — with conditions — this summer, Simcoe Muskoka health unit says
> 
> 
> But it may be more difficult to keep public pools and beaches open with current emergency rules in place.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.simcoe.com


May 5
world population 7,777,777,777 covid 19 deaths 248,000 death rate .0032%

The rates are being exaggerated with the instruction of how death certificates are to be filled out in US other countries not sure of. More people die in car accidents & we don't shut the world economy down. Gates the computer geek cant even stop virus attacking computers. He has no intention of saving us all with his vaccine only reduce the population, shut down the economy with his monopoly in health care. People are not of value only saving the planet from CO2.


----------



## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> What countries have a 10% fatality rate? Are those places that have tested very few people, perhaps only those who have shown obvious signs of sickness?
> 
> Testing only sick people is not an accurate measure of the fatality rate...why would a medical expert make such a claim? Places that tested for antibodies are showing a fatality rate as low as 0.001% or lower.


10% of confirmed cases isn't an unusual stat. There's a table, listing lots of countries.








Coronavirus Update (Live): 123,042,823 Cases and 2,715,771 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




www.worldometers.info





They know they're missing lots.

I think the Diamond Princess data is some of the best, the fatality rate there was bad, and it was much lower.

It seems that there are a LOT more asymptomatic cases that arent' getting tested, we're still talking about a lot of deaths, but I think as long as we keep hospitals below capacity we're good.

The only people calling for perpetual lockdowns are people who can't understand the devestating impact this is having on peoples lives. I think people in Ontario will accept another month, but I think 3 months is pushing it.

Since this is out in the wild, maybe the Swedish model is appropriate.
That being said, it looks like Canada (outside Quebec) is getting things under control, The initial economic damage is done, it won't continue to get bad at that rate, unless Trudea continues to dump billions a day in handouts.
I wonder when he's planning on calling the election?


----------



## Thal81

I know I won't be able to work from home for much longer, it's taking its toll. I think I can do it for another month or so, but at some point I'll have to ask for long term leave or I will go insane.


----------



## sags

As the old axiom goes....be careful what you wish for because you just might get it.

A scenario where the economy opens up and a second wave of pandemic worse than the first causes everything to close would be a very depressing result.

My prediction is that vaccine candidates are going to have limited clinical testing and then be administered to a broader base of the population.

There are currently 100 vaccines in the pipeline. There are 8 in clinical trials. If some of them pass the first clinical trials they may be given the go ahead.

And then we hope for the best.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Don't government employees have health benefits aka as access to mental health help? Or even read their own news about mental help-lines already set up?

I'm having a very difficult time seeing public employees WAH going bonkers given my neighbours (2 doors away) is having a blast Working-At-Home ... BBQing almost every day, or washing his car, or tending his garden, etc. during "business hours". I guess anywhere away from a computer having to think about going crazy to have to "WORK".

Meanwhile, a friend WAH-for-the city, living up at a condo had to spend "hours" during the business week "WAH" while waiting in-line with the need to shop from door to door at Walmart, No-Frills, and God knows where else. I think she's nuts.


----------



## off.by.10

Yeah, if there's one thing this crisis is showing, it's the huge divide between those with protected jobs and those who actually need to work for a living. I sure hope the former will be reminded of the great conditions they're enjoying next time they protest for "parity with the private sector".


----------



## MrMatt

off.by.10 said:


> Yeah, if there's one thing this crisis is showing, it's the huge divide between those with protected jobs and those who actually need to work for a living. I sure hope the former will be reminded of the great conditions they're enjoying next time they protest for "parity with the private sector".


I wish there was "parity with the private sector". That would have saved billions.
You are being redirected...


----------



## Pluto

South Korea reportedly has this virus under better control than any other due to extensive testing. I wonder why this does not get more air play and why we don't have testing like they do?


----------



## Pluto

Pluto said:


> South Korea reportedly has this virus under better control than any other due to extensive testing. I wonder why this does not get more air play and why we don't have testing like they do?


Link to South Korea article:









What’s Behind South Korea’s COVID-19 Exceptionalism?


Seven weeks ago, South Korea and the U.S. had the same number of virus deaths. Today, South Korea has fewer than 300, and the U.S. has more than 70,000.




www.theatlantic.com


----------



## MrMatt

Pluto said:


> South Korea reportedly has this virus under better control than any other due to extensive testing. I wonder why this does not get more air play and why we don't have testing like they do?


Extensive testing, mass surveillance, mandatory quarantines.
They also closed their borders, and started lockdown quicker.

Our government of course was saying that there is no reason to close the border, and they failed to impose mandatory quarantines on returning travellers.

The mass surveillance is also problematic.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> The mass surveillance is also problematic.


And that's the second point that people keep missing out. Extensive testing is good to give you a snapshot in time, but if you aren't monitoring who is interacting with those who test positive and do the contact tracing, you're not going to do a lot to get it under control. And this is why what they did in South Korea would not work in North America because most people distrust the government and would object to any sort of personal tracking.


----------



## james4beach

Australia has very low rates, and it's not due to mass surveillance. Society is very much like Canada. Maybe we should emulate what Australia is doing?



MrMatt said:


> Our government of course was saying that there is no reason to close the border, and they failed to impose mandatory quarantines on returning travellers.


That's not true. I entered Canada on March 17 and was told -- very clearly -- that I had to go home under mandatory quarantine.

Australia, which has been very effective at closing their borders, did this only two days prior, March 15 as documented here.

It looks like Canada & Australia had the same requirements for returning travellers. March 15 for Australia, March 17 for Canada.

It is possible that 48 hours was enough of a delay to put Canada at a disadvantage.

I suspect the bigger difference is the US. In Canada, many returning travellers (Eder for example) came back from the US. I suspect our real problem is that many Canadians (snowbirds and business people) brought the virus back from the US, our most common travel destination.


----------



## sags

So Trump's personal valet tested positive for COVID.

Trump and Pence are being tested daily for the virus.









One of Trump's personal valets has tested positive for coronavirus


A member of the US Navy who serves as one of President Donald Trump's personal valets has tested positive for coronavirus, CNN learned Thursday, raising concerns about the President's possible exposure to the virus.




www.cnn.com


----------



## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> Australia has very low rates, and it's not due to mass surveillance. Society is very much like Canada. Maybe we should emulate what Australia is doing?
> 
> I suspect the bigger difference is the US. In Canada, many returning travellers (Eder for example) came back from the US. I suspect our real problem is that many Canadians (snowbirds and business people) brought the virus back from the US, our most common travel destination.


Time is everything, but keep in mind that Australia does not have to deal with a relatively porous border with the USA. We know that the US didn't take this seriously until well after spring break which was essentially an invitation for coronavirus to spread. Then you have the spring breakers coming back to Canada on flights where you can almost guarantee that a large proportion of the passengers would become infected. Even now, we still have essential traffic flow from the US. Australia doesn't have to worry about that bit as they can easily shut down the border, as it is an island.

How Well Has Australia Managed COVID-19?

They didn't do anything much more than what we had done. But there is another factor to look at.

Most of the acute cases in Canada are in the long term care facilities. Australia has a better system than we do, which probably accounts for a significant difference. The weak link turned out to be at the nursing homes where more than half the COVID19 deaths in Ontario took place


----------



## sags

Oh oh........and now VP Pence's press secretary has the virus.

One wonders why Trump and Pence haven't been kept apart during this pandemic. 

If they both become incapacitated Speaker of the House becomes Acting President.

That would be Nancy Pelosi. Wouldn't that drive Republicans wild.


----------



## sags

Doug Ford told everyone to stay away from cottage country.......and then went to his cottage.

His credibility with the public just dropped a few notches.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Doug Ford told everyone to stay away from cottage country.......and then went to his cottage.
> 
> His credibility with the public just dropped a few notches.


Just like Trudeau.


----------



## bgc_fan

I thought this was interesting. There's research with llamas to look for a cure. Apparently they've been working on it since SARS and MERS.
Can the blood of a llama named 'Winter' be used to protect against coronavirus?

It's still a long way, but interesting.


----------



## sags

Ivanka Trump's press secretary now has the virus. There are 60 Secret Service agents in quarantine and being tested, and 12 of them tested positive.

It appears the White House has become a "hotspot" for the virus. A group of WWII veterans with the youngest age 96, visited the WH and nobody wore a mask.

If Trump calls and invites you to the White House, tell him you are too busy right now.


----------



## Longtimeago

Pluto said:


> South Korea reportedly has this virus under better control than any other due to extensive testing. I wonder why this does not get more air play and why we don't have testing like they do?


S. Korea has just had a new outbreak after having re-opened restaurants and bars. Over 40 positive cases traced back to a nightclub. They have now re-closed the restaurants and bars.

This is what has to be expected when you re-open things.

Ontario had 477 new cases yesterday, the highest in a week. People seem to be becoming lax in maintaining distancing and this result is also what to expect.

No matter how frustrated people are becoming, being frustrated will NOT reduce new cases, only maintaining physical distancing will do so. 

We are not anywhere near going DOWN on the far side of the curve yet. 'Flattening the curve' is just a plateau, not a downward trend. Dr. Tam has said repeatedly that we should not be opening up before we are well down the other side of the curve but pressure to re-open is ignoring the science.


----------



## sags

Canadians support waiting for a vaccine. Trudeau leads Scheer by 19 points now. Stay the course and arrive at the destination safely.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Canadians support waiting for a vaccine. Trudeau leads Scheer by 19 points now. Stay the course and arrive at the destination safely.


Support your assertion. (you wont' because you made it up)

People are dying due to this lockdown, and you want it to continue for years. What's wrong with you?


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Ivanka Trump's press secretary now has the virus. There are 60 Secret Service agents in quarantine and being tested, and 12 of them tested positive.
> 
> It appears the White House has become a "hotspot" for the virus. A group of WWII veterans with the youngest age 96, visited the WH and nobody wore a mask.
> 
> If Trump calls and invites you to the White House, tell him you are too busy right now.


 ... I'm surprised this leaked hasn't been tweeted as "FAKE NEWS!!!!" whereas this reporting will be considered as "REAL NEWS":

Donald Trump says coronavirus will go away without a vaccine



> President Donald Trump on Friday predicted the coronavirus would '*go away *without a vaccine' and vowed that America is going to 'transition to greatness.' ...


 ... here comes the MAGA rhetorics AGAIN. Just delusional.

Despite his personal doctor says:



> Dr. Anthony Fauci, who sits on the White House's coronavirus task force, was asked on Fox News last week about Joe Biden's comment that: '*This isn't going to be over until we have a vaccine*.'
> 
> Fauci responded: '*There's truth to that. It's not going to be over to the point of our being able to not do any mitigation until we have a scientifically sound, safe and effective vaccine.*'


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Support your assertion. (you wont' because you made it up)
> 
> People are dying due to this lockdown, and you want it to continue for years. What's wrong with you?


Support the opposite MrMatt. Do you have a link you can provide that shows the majority of Canadians favour opening up and going for herd immunity as the answer?

Or try another approach since really, the majority of Canadians are not epidemiologists (notice how we can all spell that word now though) and therefore really only have an opinion based on what they read or hear, not based on their own expertise in the subject. Can you provide a link that shows that the majority of epidemiologists favour not waiting for a vaccine before opening up? THAT would be something worth something in terms of determining what we should be doing.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Or try another approach since really, the majority of Canadians are not epidemiologists (notice how we can all spell that word now though) and therefore really only have an opinion based on what they read or hear, not based on their own expertise in the subject. Can you provide a link that shows that the majority of epidemiologists favour not waiting for a vaccine before opening up? THAT would be something worth something in terms of determining what we should be doing.


How about just follow the guidelines that your province is telling you?

A number of provinces are opening up already so lets see how that goes ...


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> How about just follow the guidelines that your province is telling you?
> 
> A number of provinces are opening up already so lets see how that goes ...


I'm fine with that but apparently MrMatt is not.


----------



## sags

_LeBlanc shares a similar frustration. He doesn't think many are taking the pandemic as seriously as they should.

"People don't understand people are dying. And I see it everyday," he said, having to extensively clean the room after they pass. "I'm tired of people complaining that they can't go and get their haircut and ridiculous things like that."_



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/cleaners-covid-19-trash-collectors-1.5562245


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Support the opposite MrMatt. Do you have a link you can provide that shows the majority of Canadians favour opening up and going for herd immunity as the answer?
> 
> Or try another approach since really, the majority of Canadians are not epidemiologists (notice how we can all spell that word now though) and therefore really only have an opinion based on what they read or hear, not based on their own expertise in the subject. Can you provide a link that shows that the majority of epidemiologists favour not waiting for a vaccine before opening up? THAT would be something worth something in terms of determining what we should be doing.


I'm simply saying that I think waiting 2-3 years or more for a vaccine is too long. I've explained in detail why. In short, I think it will hurt too many people to keep the lockdown that long.

Sags claimed that's what Canadians want, I challenged him to support his claim. He didn't. Instead the two of you made ridiculous statements of what I "apparently" believe. I guess it's easier to "debate" if you ignore all facts, and attack imaginary positions that the other person doesn't hold.

The responsible opposite of remaining in lockdown and waiting years for a vaccine is a careful and considered reopening of the economy, that the province of Ontario is currently attempting to pursue. 








Most Canadians comfortable with pace of easing restrictions: poll


As provinces start to tiptoe toward normalcy by gently lifting restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19, a new poll suggests Canadians are largely happy with the pace.




www.cp24.com




"People in most provinces taking steps to reopen were between 60 and 70 per cent supportive of those moves, while 16 to 30 per cent would like to see their government slow down a little. "


----------



## andrewf

I don't think all the worrywart realize that no one in power is even considering their position. If we kept the economy in the current state of lockdown until a vaccine was available and widely deployed, there would not be a civilization to return to. It takes a lot of work to keep things running.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

There isn't going to be a vaccine. Reason, the virus mutates too fast. They have already isolated 61 different variations. This is one reason some people get sick from it and others don't, and why some people in Korea have gotten sick for a second time. They did not get immunity from the first exposure because the virus changed so much by the time they caught it the second time.

This is pretty common for viruses and why virus epidemics peter out after a while. The virus mutates into a less deadly form and fades away. Not all viruses but it seems to work for flu viruses.


----------



## bgc_fan

Rusty O'Toole said:


> There isn't going to be a vaccine. Reason, the virus mutates too fast. They have already isolated 61 different variations. This is one reason some people get sick from it and others don't, and why some people in Korea have gotten sick for a second time. They did not get immunity from the first exposure because the virus changed so much by the time they caught it the second time


Do you have a source that there are 61 different variations? Right now it seems they are tracking 8 strains: 8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists.. As far as South Korea is concerned, the conclusion seems to be false positives. South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'



Rusty O'Toole said:


> This is pretty common for viruses and why virus epidemics peter out after a while. The virus mutates into a less deadly form and fades away. Not all viruses but it seems to work for flu viruses.


I wouldn't say they mutate into less deadly forms. It's more that most people end up getting immune to the existing variations and that can protect against variations. If you think about flu immunization, they usually target a few flu strains. Even if you get infected by a strain which is not covered by the vaccine, you would get a reduced reaction.


----------



## mrbizi

andrewf said:


> I don't think all the worrywart realize that no one in power is even considering their position. If we kept the economy in the current state of lockdown until a vaccine was available and widely deployed, there would not be a civilization to return to. It takes a lot of work to keep things running.


I agree. I wonder if most of them worrywarts are already retired or financially independent? 

For people like myself who still need to get out there and make a living, there is just no other choice. You just need to adapt to the new normal and mitigate risk where you can.


----------



## MrMatt

mrbizi said:


> I agree. I wonder if most of them worrywarts are already retired or financially independent?
> 
> For people like myself who still need to get out there and make a living, there is just no other choice. You just need to adapt to the new normal and mitigate risk where you can.


Or they're government workers, who are getting paid, but don't have to work, and don't worry about their employer going bankrupt.


----------



## andrewf

bgc_fan said:


> Do you have a source that there are 61 different variations? Right now it seems they are tracking 8 strains: 8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists.. As far as South Korea is concerned, the conclusion seems to be false positives. South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'
> 
> 
> 
> I wouldn't say they mutate into less deadly forms. It's more that most people end up getting immune to the existing variations and that can protect against variations. If you think about flu immunization, they usually target a few flu strains. Even if you get infected by a strain which is not covered by the vaccine, you would get a reduced reaction.


Viruses tend to evolve to become less harmful. It is not adaptive to kill hosts. Ideal scenario is to spread and cause no symptoms.


----------



## sags

I don't think it is up to the "worrywarts", those want to "open up", or the political leaders. The virus is in full command here and isn't just going to fade away.


----------



## Eclectic12

bgc_fan said:


> Rusty O'Toole said:
> 
> 
> 
> There isn't going to be a vaccine.
> *Reason, the virus mutates too fast.*
> 
> They have already isolated 61 different variations ...
> 
> 
> 
> ... Do you have a source that there are 61 different variations?
> 
> Right now it seems they are tracking 8 strains ...
Click to expand...

I'm curious about that as well.

I'm also interested in a source that also says Covid-19 mutates fast. 

One article says "Based on current data, it seems as though SARS-CoV-2 mutates much more slowly than the seasonal flu." Coronavirus seems to mutate much slower than seasonal flu

A Q&A article says "The rate of mutation in coronaviruses — about two mutations per month — is much slower than that of the influenza virus, which averages about eight to 10 mutations per month."








Science of the coronavirus — why does COVID-19 kill some people, but barely affect others?


What you need to know about the virus that causes COVID-19, from how deadly it is to how...




www.sfchronicle.com





And says ... "SARS-CoV-2 is no exception, and over the past few months it has been mutating.
But the *virus has mutated at a very slow pace*. And when it does mutate, the new copies aren’t far off from the original virus."









COVID-19 Will Mutate — What That Means for a Vaccine


The new coronavirus has already mutated a handful of times, which has many people wondering whether the mutations could lead to a more severe, deadlier disease. But the new mutations are extremely similar to the original virus and don’t seem to be any more aggressive.




www.healthline.com






Cheers


----------



## mrbizi

sags said:


> I don't think it is up to the "worrywarts", those want to "open up", or the political leaders. The virus is in full command here and isn't just going to fade away.


I agree, this virus isn’t going to fade away anytime soon, maybe it will be here for at least a couple of years. So people will just need to learn how to live with it, while being able to put food on the table.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

The 61 strains claim came from an article I read online about a week ago. I can't find it now but did come up with this study from China claiming they have isolated 30. 








SCMP: Coronavirus mutates into at least 30 different dangerous strains


Professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China have researched on the latest mutation of coronavirus which has been alleged to develop into at least 30 aggressive strains. The result was then published in a non-peer reviewed paper released on website medRxiv.org...




vietnamtimes.org.vn




Same story from an American source Coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different strains, study finds

We know the corona virus is an RNA virus which mutates faster than a DNA virus.

Whether it will mutate into insignificance or whether they will come up with a vaccine time will tell.


----------



## sags

People are tweeting about flying in full airliners. Not an empty seat on the plane.

This "opening up" nonsense is going to work out real well.


----------



## sags

Melania Trump's personal aide is infected. The head of the CDC is under self quarantine for 14 days.

This is what happens when you don't quarantine, wear a mask, or social distance.


----------



## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> Viruses tend to evolve to become less harmful. It is not adaptive to kill hosts. Ideal scenario is to spread and cause no symptoms.


Except that is exactly what COVID19 does. It spreads effectively when people are asymptomatic, so I wouldn't see a reason why it would become less harmful. In some ways, it's already an "ideal" virus when it comes to that respect.



Rusty O'Toole said:


> The 61 strains claim came from an article I read online about a week ago. I can't find it now but did come up with this study from China claiming they have isolated 30.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> SCMP: Coronavirus mutates into at least 30 different dangerous strains
> 
> 
> Professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China have researched on the latest mutation of coronavirus which has been alleged to develop into at least 30 aggressive strains. The result was then published in a non-peer reviewed paper released on website medRxiv.org...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> vietnamtimes.org.vn
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Same story from an American source Coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different strains, study finds
> 
> We know the corona virus is an RNA virus which mutates faster than a DNA virus.
> 
> Whether it will mutate into insignificance or whether they will come up with a vaccine time will tell.


Not to downplay it, but it depends on how genetically different the strains are from each other. It's quite possible that there are still significantly genetically similarities that means a vaccine will still be effective against most strains. Keep in mind, that a similar flu vaccine usually a cocktail of different strains that are predicted to be important that year.

As another interesting fact, there are some clusters of children who are exhibiting symptoms of Kawasaki syndrome after testing positive for COVID19. It's a rare disease, but the fact that there seems to be an increase of children with the symptoms. 3 NY youths die from syndrome possibly linked to COVID-19

If I were to speculate, and added to Sags' previous mention about people dying of blood clots instead of pulmonary failure, it may mean that COVID19 is more than just a respiratory illness.

And just for another food for thought, hydroxychloroquine side effects do include heart disease/failure, maybe its not the silver bullet for everyone.


----------



## sags

Doctors are now including blood thinners in the treatment protocol, but that only helps with one symptom.

(Blood thinners can have severe side effects of internal bleeding and making surgeries dangerous. Some blood thinners have no reversal agents)

Other symptoms are that many of those surviving hospitalization end up with severe permanent kidney, heart, lung, or nerve damage.

As in other incidents reported as X dead and X injured, people pay more attention to the X dead number and not enough to the X injured number.

I have yet to see a number representing how many "recovered" people have been left with serious health issues from COVID infection.

I think the word "recovered" for many people means a full recovery to full health. This may not be true for many of the people hospitalized for COVID.


----------



## Longtimeago

Calling someone a 'worrywart' implies that the person has no actual reason to worry does it not?

I don't think anyone worrying about getting the virus right now should be called a worrywart. It is a genuine worry and for those at higher risk of a major reaction, it is a big worry. So let's try to avoid Trump like exaggerations and stick to more reasoned discussion of the issues.

Regardless of whether you or I think we are moving too quickly or not quickly enough to open things up, what will be will be. As we open up, we will see an increase in cases, that is inevitable. The only way to avoid that would be to continue in an even stricter lock-down than we have been doing.

Some countries like New Zealand and Greece have in fact been able to get to the bottom of the curve by acting fast and hard. We took a 'medium' approach and as a consequence, we are where we are, at a plateau, NOT on the down curve yet.

I think it is too early, that we should be well down the curve before we start easing up but what I think is irrelevant since the government under pressure from those who think otherwise for whatever reasons (such as a legitimate, I need to earn a living) has decided to start easing up. So be it. I see no point in my continuing trying to argue it's too early when I am presented with a fait accompli. We are easing up, end of story. Let's move on from there.

What can we expect? Well, I believe we will see a rise in cases each time we ease up on something. I also believe that we are already seeing a rise simply due to people's restlessness and becoming lax in terms of maintaining distancing. So be it. Those of you who decide to ease up for yourselves will have to accept the increased risk to yourself. My advice to you would be to TRY very hard to maintain distancing where you can and follow the hygiene advice re washing your hands, not touching your face, etc. as you go forward. 

I do not need to ease up however. I am financially independent as one poster wondered about above. I can afford to sit home and maintain myself in as much of a lock-down as I choose to. However many get sick, I will most likely not get sick. I can live with easing up pretty easily actually.


----------



## Money172375

Are there any public documents available outlining Canada’s (or anyone’s) pandemic plans published before covid19?


----------



## sags

Reports are that a "very high ranking" official in the White House has contracted COVID. 

The story is there is chaos and fear in the White House, as the virus spreads. They won't be able to contain either the virus or the news.

As one doctor said........once people are sick it is already too late to control it.


----------



## m3s

Money172375 said:


> Are there any public documents available outlining Canada’s (or anyone’s) pandemic plans published before covid19?


Many governments have contingencies plans drafted for any case imaginable. The recommendations usually aren't actioned in a democracy

Here's a +100 page US military pandemic response plan that references many other documents. Coronavirus was flagged 2nd on the list behind avian flu.

None of this was unexpected or unpredictable


----------



## sags

Trump talking about the WH infections.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1259223035971805185


----------



## sags

Trump doesn't read, so unless the pandemic emergency response was in animated cartoon form he wouldn't understand it.


----------



## sags

A CEO who is expert in the field of viruses agrees with Trump that the virus will eventually go away on it's own.

He says all it will take is the healthcare system to be overrun and tens of millions of deaths for the virus to work it's way naturally through the population.

Should we open up the economy and see what happens ?


----------



## bgc_fan

Money172375 said:


> Are there any public documents available outlining Canada’s (or anyone’s) pandemic plans published before covid19?


Here's Canada's: Canadian Pandemic Influenza Preparedness: Planning Guidance for the Health Sector - Canada.ca


----------



## m3s

bgc_fan said:


> Here's Canada's: Canadian Pandemic Influenza Preparedness: Planning Guidance for the Health Sector - Canada.ca


That's very detailed and extensive and also links to the international and provincial plans. I'm sure it will be completely updated after all this but it already discussed many tough topics people are asking as if it was never thought of before.

I think Canada was wise to increase the wages of essential employees. Those plans often mention essential services as a catch all along with health care, emergency responders, critical infrastructure but I don't think it was really hashed out how to look after essential service providers

I think rather than stockpiling critical supplies like PPE that expire, we could stockpile the raw materials and have plans to manufacture critical supplies. Any stockpiles need to be rotated into use so that they don't expire


----------



## bgc_fan

m3s said:


> I think rather than stockpiling critical supplies like PPE that expire, we could stockpile the raw materials and have plans to manufacture critical supplies. Any stockpiles need to be rotated into use so that they don't expire


Stockpiling is pretty much an art more than a science. You could predict worst case scenarios and store too much, which costs resources... but, who could predict that a pandemic would greatly affect the supply chains as they have. At any case, having x months stockpiled, ensuring that there is rotation into the institutions would be an ideal method. Just throwing out numbers, have a federal stockpile that could meet 3 months normal burn rate, do a resupply on a monthly basis to institutions and repurchase from suppliers. Centralizing control and purchases under the federal government can be problematic, but is probably the easiest way to deal with a national pandemic situation. 

But for raw materials, I think Canada is ok for the most part: Vancouver Island pulp mill supplies materials for medical protective equipment in both Canada and U.S.

Of course, if the workers are affected, that does change the dynamic.


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> That's very detailed and extensive and also links to the international and provincial plans. I'm sure it will be completely updated after all this but it already discussed many tough topics people are asking as if it was never thought of before.
> 
> I think Canada was wise to increase the wages of essential employees. Those plans often mention essential services as a catch all along with health care, emergency responders, critical infrastructure but I don't think it was really hashed out how to look after essential service providers
> 
> I think rather than stockpiling critical supplies like PPE that expire, we could stockpile the raw materials and have plans to manufacture critical supplies. Any stockpiles need to be rotated into use so that they don't expire


I think you need a stockpile of PPE for immediate reaction, and then a stockpile of equipment that can be used to produce additional PPE. The PPE stockpile is to give time to set up and operationalize manufacturing. It should be possible to cycle through a PPE stockpile for normal use.


----------



## Money172375

Conflicting info coming out re: the risk to smokers.









Smokers seem less likely than non-smokers to fall ill with covid-19


That may point towards a way of treating it




www.economist.com













Colby Cosh: Where there's smoke — the cigarettes-and-COVID story is growing harder to ignore


For smokers to do better in ANY health measure taken from ANY sample in ANY situation is astonishing. But now we have two studies showing that smokers do…




nationalpost.com













WHO statement: Tobacco use and COVID-19


Tobacco kills more than 8 million people globally every year. More than 7 million of these deaths are from direct tobacco use and around 1.2 million are due to non-smokers being exposed to second-hand smoke. Tobacco smoking is a known risk factor for many respiratory infections and increases the...




www.who.int


----------



## cainvest

Money172375 said:


> Conflicting info coming out re: the risk to smokers.


Maybe more smokers are just staying home because they are in the high risk group?


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Maybe more smokers are just staying home because they are in the high risk group?


That wouldn't explain why of those smokers who do contract the virus, the outcome is less severe.

But other than a point to be researched it really doesn't matter right now. No one is saying, if you smoke you won't get it and if you get it and smoke, you won't die. It's like the, if you're younger you have less chance of a severe reaction nonsense. Tell that to a 30 year old who gets it and has a severe reaction. 

Regardless of the percentages, do you want to take the risk? That is the only question that matters. What level of risk do you consider acceptable?


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> That wouldn't explain why of those smokers who do contract the virus, the outcome is less severe.


I didn't see mention of that in the linked articles but one requires login so I couldn't read it all.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> I didn't see mention of that in the linked articles but one requires login so I couldn't read it all.


From the National Post article:
_'from a sample of 17 million people. It turned out current smokers had a significantly lower risk of COVID-19 death than both never-smokers and former smokers when you correct for other variables,'_

But it really doesn't matter cainvest whether it ends up being proven to be true or false. It's just a point worth researching. No one is going to say everyone should now start smoking as a preventative to contracting the virus. All the other negative affects smoking can have are still there.

_'_I started smoking and avoided covid19 but died of lung cancer caused by smoking.'


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> From the National Post article:
> _'from a sample of 17 million people. It turned out current smokers had a significantly lower risk of COVID-19 death than both never-smokers and former smokers when you correct for other variables,'_
> 
> But it really doesn't matter cainvest whether it ends up being proven to be true or false. It's just a point worth researching. No one is going to say everyone should now start smoking as a preventative to contracting the virus. All the other negative affects smoking can have are still there.
> 
> _'_I started smoking and avoided covid19 but died of lung cancer caused by smoking.'


Ahhh, "journalist stats" not real science based ones ... at least that's what it looks like.

As you said, smoking to avoid covid death is really not a viable option but possibly an interesting research point.


----------



## bgc_fan

Longtimeago said:


> That wouldn't explain why of those smokers who do contract the virus, the outcome is less severe.


Kind of a tongue-in-cheek explanation could be that the lungs are already damaged by smoking, so that the virus can't find a suitable environment to occupy.


----------



## Mukhang pera

[QUOTE="Longtimeago, post: 2088487, member: 349718"
_'_I started smoking and avoided covid19 but died of lung cancer caused by smoking.'
[/QUOTE]

But, it seems to me that lung cancer almost always has a long latency period. Those I know who died of the disease starting smoking in their youth and did not succumb to lung cancer until decades later. If you take up smoking in your 60s, how great a threat will lung cancer be to your longevity?


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> [QUOTE="Longtimeago, post: 2088487, member: 349718"
> _'_I started smoking and avoided covid19 but died of lung cancer caused by smoking.'


But, it seems to me that lung cancer almost always has a long latency period. Those I know who died of the disease starting smoking in their youth and did not succumb to lung cancer until decades later. If you take up smoking in your 60s, how great a threat will lung cancer be to your longevity?
[/QUOTE]
Interesting point Mukhang pera. Maybe 60+ year olds should take up smoking as a precautionary measure against Covid19. As you suggest, by the time other smoking related issues like Cancer are likely to catch up with them, they'll probably be dead anyway. 

Perhaps you should e-mail your thoughts on this to Dr. Tam.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> Perhaps you should e-mail your thoughts on this to Dr. Tam.


Capital idea LTA. I shall submit a scholarly paper on the topic to Dr. Tam forthwith!


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Interesting point Mukhang pera. Maybe 60+ year olds should take up smoking as a precautionary measure against Covid19. As you suggest, by the time other smoking related issues like Cancer are likely to catch up with them, they'll probably be dead anyway.
> 
> Perhaps you should e-mail your thoughts on this to Dr. Tam.


Didn't you mean to say "Dr. Trump" ?


----------



## Longtimeago

Hey sags, how come I don't see you having posted about all seniors who get OAS, are going to be getting a $300 handout and $500 if they are also receiving GIS? 


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/seniors-supports-covid19-1.5565743



When I heard this yesterday, I have to say I was surprised. I suppose there are some increased costs that some seniors have incurred as a result of the current situation but not all of them have, we (my wife and I) haven't as far as I am concerned. We receive some OAS and so will get this handout.

I think they should have offered this based on an application and it being means tested. I mean, even someone who is subject to OAS clawback will still get this handout unless they are subject to their entire 100% of OAS being clawback. ie. they then do not receive OAS. That means people earning up to $125k per year will get this handout. That makes no sense to me.

I actually feel somewhat guilty that I will receive this money when I don't need it at all. I'm open to suggestions as to how I might dispose of it back into the Covid19 situation. I was thinking about maybe using it to buy lunch for all the staff at our local Foodland for example. With $600 (my wife and I) I could buy them all a heck of a nice meal even including all the part time workers I think. It's a small Foodland.


----------



## sags

I posted the announcement in another thread.

As to giving it to everyone, they said it was the easiest and fastest way to get the money out the door.

All it took was a few computer clicks to add the extra money to everyone already collecting OAS.

I agree it isn't based on need, but deciding where the "cut off" should be is a fool's game.

They should have just given everyone the $2000 a month CERB and let people like us pay tax on it.

The whole goal of the "support" spending after all, isn't to save the government money. It is to "support" the economy until conditions improve.

They want to give out the money. They want people to spend it. They are trying to save a consumer spending driven economy from collapse.

This is an economic tool that some people have trouble understanding.


----------



## Prairie Guy

cainvest said:


> Didn't you mean to say "Dr. Trump" ?


Yes, Trump's a doctor because he repeated things medical experts have said. I've also repeated what medical experts have said so that makes me a doctor too. In the future please refer to me as Dr. Prairie Guy.


----------



## sags

Donald Trump goes to see the doctor completely naked except for some cling wrap around his waist. Doc Prairie Guy says.......I can clearly see your nuts.


----------



## cainvest

Prairie Guy said:


> Yes, Trump's a doctor because he repeated things medical experts have said. I've also repeated what medical experts have said so that makes me a doctor too. In the future please refer to me as Dr. Prairie Guy.


Are you telling me a man with Trump's knowledge doesn't have a PHD?


----------



## Pluto

I'm not convinced that vaccines are effective. for example, more and more people have been getting the flu vaccine annually, but the death rate from flu seems to be going up. 









Influenza and pneumonia death rate Canada 2000-2020 | Statista


In 2020, there were 15.6 deaths from influenza and pneumonia in Canada per 100,000 population, an increase from previous years.




www.statista.com





I had occasion in years gone by to visit elderly folks in an assisted living institution. When flu season arrived, visitors had to have the vaccine or wear a mask. I chose to wear the mask since the vaccine is for last years flu, and health professionals who chose to informally offer their opinion said "the flu vaccines don't even work". Of course the health professionals got the vaccine so as not to appear to be dissenters. 

However, this nasty virus isn't flu, so maybe its different this time. But it is mutating somewhat, so I doubt a vaccine is the ultimate answer.


----------



## sags

More flu deaths may be due to people living longer and the population aging in general.

We don't hear much about seasonal flu deaths because we don't see bodies being put in refrigerated trucks, like happened in NYC.

We also don't normally run out of PPE or have doctors and nurses dying from treating patients with the seasonal flu.


----------



## Eclectic12

Pluto said:


> I'm not convinced that vaccines are effective. for example, more and more people have been getting the flu vaccine annually, but the death rate from flu seems to be going up ... However, this nasty virus isn't flu, so maybe its different this time. But it is mutating somewhat, so I doubt a vaccine is the ultimate answer.


One of the reasons experts who have tracked the HIV vaccine failures are hopeful is how slowly this virus mutates.

In the time the influenza virus spins off eight to ten mutations, this one is reported to spin off two. The mutations are also reported to be close to the original virus.


Hopefully it's not being clear in the writing but just because the influenza virus mutates so rapidly and makes the yearly vaccine guesswork with a wide variation in effectiveness, year by year - doesn't tell us anything about how effective a future vaccine for this virus or for other ones are.


Cheers

*PS*
I've seen references to studies that putting the influenza virus effectiveness anywhere from 19% to 65%, depending on the year.


----------



## Money172375

WHO says virus may never go away....









Coronavirus may never go away: WHO


The new coronavirus may never go away and populations around the world will have to learn to live with it, the World Health Organization warned Wednesday. As some countries around the world begin gradually easing lockdown restrictions imposed in a bid to stop the novel coronavirus from...




news.yahoo.com


----------



## Prairie Guy

Money172375 said:


> WHO says virus may never go away....


WHO said it wasn't contagious long after Taiwan told them it wasn't contagious. WHO said that masks were not effective. WHO covered for China.

Maybe they're right this time. But right or wrong, some people will use that announcement to demand that the economy be shut down forever. Trudeau will start week 6 of his 14-day self-isolation taking 3 softball questions a day from approved media and avoiding opposition questions. Trudeau would self-isolate for the rest of his term if he could get away with it.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Just when you thought they couldn't beclown themselves any further, CNN has now added Greta Thunberg to their "expert" panel on Coronavirus 🤣 









Greta Thunberg Named To CNN’s 'Expert' Coronavirus Panel; Twitter Explodes


CNN will hold a town hall on Thursday on the coronavirus pandemic titled “Coronavirus Facts and Fears.” The show will feature CNN broadcaster Sanjay Gupta and network anchor Anderson Cooper as hosts and will feature former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and former Centers...




www.thegatewaypundit.com


----------



## sags

Greta will discuss the effects of climate change on the spread of disease. It is a timely topic that should be discussed.


----------



## Longtimeago

The Welsh have long been known for their singing and this is no exception. A venue in Wales has been converted to a temporary hospital during the pandemic and some of the healthcare workers there have got together to produce a version of Bridge Over Troubled Waters. It's worth a listen and I am sure it will bring tears to some listeners.





 The singing starts at 1.55 if you want to skip ahead.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Prairie Guy said:


> Just when you thought they couldn't beclown themselves any further, CNN has now added Greta Thunberg to their "expert" panel on Coronavirus 🤣
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Greta Thunberg Named To CNN’s 'Expert' Coronavirus Panel; Twitter Explodes
> 
> 
> CNN will hold a town hall on Thursday on the coronavirus pandemic titled “Coronavirus Facts and Fears.” The show will feature CNN broadcaster Sanjay Gupta and network anchor Anderson Cooper as hosts and will feature former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and former Centers...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thegatewaypundit.com


Pass the smelling salts, please.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> Greta will discuss the effects of climate change on the spread of disease. It is a timely topic that should be discussed.


She has no scientific or medical expertise and is not qualified to answer technical questions.


----------



## sags

I guess we will find out how much she knows.

It will bring a younger audience into the discussion, which is important because they will be the voters in a few years.

She is not being brought in as an expert on COVID, although she probably knows as much about it as VP Mike Pence appears to.

She is being interviewed to talk about her work as an activist during the COVID pandemic.

How quickly conservatives believed a false story. Even Trump tweeted about it.

I do find it interesting that a little girl strikes such fear into conservatives.


----------



## Prairie Guy

No one is scared of Greta, she can't answer unscripted questions. The only reason she exists is so that people can complain that meanies are picking on a little girl if they dare to ask her a tough question or criticize her lack of knowledge.

The climate thugs don't dare send an adult white male scientist (there are 10's of thousands of them) who won't be able to cry sexism or ageism when the going gets tough.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> I guess we will find out how much she knows.
> 
> It will bring a younger audience into the discussion, which is important because they will be the voters in a few years.
> 
> She is not being brought in as an expert on COVID, although she probably knows as much about it as VP Mike Pence appears to.
> 
> She is being interviewed to talk about her work as an activist during the COVID pandemic.
> 
> How quickly conservatives believed a false story. Even Trump tweeted about it.
> *
> I do find it interesting that a little girl strikes such fear into conservatives.*


 ... me too. Not all Conservatives but only those that are so sure of themselves and they know who they are.


----------



## Pluto

Eclectic12 said:


> *PS*
> I've seen references to studies that putting the influenza virus effectiveness anywhere from 19% to 65%, depending on the year.


I have searched and been unable to find a double blind study on the flu vaccine. I'm shocked. As far as I can tell it is another straw sucking $ from the tax pool without proof of value.


----------



## Eclectic12

I guess google is wonking out on you?
Or maybe you mean you aren't finding recent enough ones for your liking or ones in the area you'd prefer?









A Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Phase IIb Trial to Test FLU-v Vaccine - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov


A Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Phase IIb Trial to Test FLU-v Vaccine - Full Text View.




clinicaltrials.gov












Safety, efficacy, and immunogenicity of an inactivated influenza vaccine in healthy adults: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial over two influenza seasons - BMC Infectious Diseases


Background Seasonal influenza imposes a substantial personal morbidity and societal cost burden. Vaccination is the major strategy for influenza prevention; however, because antigenically drifted influenza A and B viruses circulate annually, influenza vaccines must be updated to provide...




bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com












A prospective, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study on the efficacy and safety of influenza vaccination in myasthenia gravis


To investigate the efficacy and safety of an influenza vaccination in patients with myasthenia gravis with acetylcholine receptor antibodies (AChR MG)…




www.sciencedirect.com






https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21645515.2019.1613127




Cheers


----------



## sags

New style of non-invasive ventilator mask developed here in London, Ontario.

It will greatly reduce the need and associated dangers of intubating patients, including having to heavily sedate them.

The mask uses existing CPAP technology and eliminates the "splash" danger.









New Canadian-designed device could ease demand for invasive ventilators


Researchers in London, Ont. collaborating with General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) have designed a new device that could help ease the demand for invasive ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic.



london.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> New style of non-invasive ventilator mask developed here in London, Ontario.
> 
> It will greatly reduce the need and associated dangers of intubating patients, including having to heavily sedate them.
> 
> The mask uses existing CPAP technology and eliminates the "splash" danger.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Canadian-designed device could ease demand for invasive ventilators
> 
> 
> Researchers in London, Ont. collaborating with General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) have designed a new device that could help ease the demand for invasive ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> london.ctvnews.ca


Yes, I heard about that using a firefighter's mask as the basis. They can get a full face seal which then allows for positive pressure to force air into the lungs. It sounds like it could be a good solution if it works out.


----------



## Money172375

Small country in Europe...about 2 million population. Slovenia have declared an end to the pandemic. Some restrictions still in place but borders and most businesses are open. some Hope....


----------



## m3s




----------



## Pluto

Eclectic12 said:


> I guess google is wonking out on you?
> Or maybe you mean you aren't finding recent enough ones for your liking or ones in the area you'd prefer?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Phase IIb Trial to Test FLU-v Vaccine - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov
> 
> 
> A Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Phase IIb Trial to Test FLU-v Vaccine - Full Text View.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> clinicaltrials.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Safety, efficacy, and immunogenicity of an inactivated influenza vaccine in healthy adults: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial over two influenza seasons - BMC Infectious Diseases
> 
> 
> Background Seasonal influenza imposes a substantial personal morbidity and societal cost burden. Vaccination is the major strategy for influenza prevention; however, because antigenically drifted influenza A and B viruses circulate annually, influenza vaccines must be updated to provide...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A prospective, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study on the efficacy and safety of influenza vaccination in myasthenia gravis
> 
> 
> To investigate the efficacy and safety of an influenza vaccination in patients with myasthenia gravis with acetylcholine receptor antibodies (AChR MG)…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.sciencedirect.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21645515.2019.1613127
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers





Eclectic12 said:


> I guess google is wonking out on you?
> Or maybe you mean you aren't finding recent enough ones for your liking or ones in the area you'd prefer?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Phase IIb Trial to Test FLU-v Vaccine - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov
> 
> 
> A Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Phase IIb Trial to Test FLU-v Vaccine - Full Text View.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> clinicaltrials.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Safety, efficacy, and immunogenicity of an inactivated influenza vaccine in healthy adults: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial over two influenza seasons - BMC Infectious Diseases
> 
> 
> Background Seasonal influenza imposes a substantial personal morbidity and societal cost burden. Vaccination is the major strategy for influenza prevention; however, because antigenically drifted influenza A and B viruses circulate annually, influenza vaccines must be updated to provide...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A prospective, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study on the efficacy and safety of influenza vaccination in myasthenia gravis
> 
> 
> To investigate the efficacy and safety of an influenza vaccination in patients with myasthenia gravis with acetylcholine receptor antibodies (AChR MG)…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.sciencedirect.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21645515.2019.1613127
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers


1) first one had less than 200 subjects for 4 different categorizes. big leap of faith to the entire population. Plus it didn't show prevention. 
2. It says right in the conclusions it didn't meet its own criteria for efficacy. There was a slight benefit that they subjectively deemed outweighed harm done. Low sample size, so generalizing to whole population is a leap of faith. 
3. People with MG were not harmed by the vaccine. Low sample size, requires a lot of faith to generalize to whole MG population. 

Basically they do not show efficacy. I wondered why the health professionals informally told me it doesn't work. Now I know. thanks.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Trudeau is crossing a provincial border to make an unnecessary non-emergency trip to his cottage this weekend. You're not allowed to cross a provincial border to go to your cottage but the rules don't apply to Trudeau.


----------



## sags

It is good to be Captain.......️⛵


----------



## sags

Sailors on the USS Roosevelt who had the virus are testing positive again.

It has to be no immunity or false negative testing results. Either way it isn't good news.









Eight sailors from USS Theodore Roosevelt who previously had coronavirus test positive again | CNN Politics


Eight additional sailors aboard the coronavirus-stricken carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt have now tested positive for the virus according to a defense official.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Sailors on the USS Roosevelt who had the virus are testing positive again.
> 
> It has to be no immunity or false negative testing results. Either way it isn't good news.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Eight sailors from USS Theodore Roosevelt who previously had coronavirus test positive again | CNN Politics
> 
> 
> Eight additional sailors aboard the coronavirus-stricken carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt have now tested positive for the virus according to a defense official.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


My reaction would be that I do not trust any testing or reporting of cases as being definitive, if the USA is involved. So I would discount these as unreliable data and therefore 'no news' at all.


----------



## Spudd

Pluto said:


> 1) first one had less than 200 subjects for 4 different categorizes. big leap of faith to the entire population. Plus it didn't show prevention.
> 2. It says right in the conclusions it didn't meet its own criteria for efficacy. There was a slight benefit that they subjectively deemed outweighed harm done. Low sample size, so generalizing to whole population is a leap of faith.
> 3. People with MG were not harmed by the vaccine. Low sample size, requires a lot of faith to generalize to whole MG population.
> 
> Basically they do not show efficacy. I wondered why the health professionals informally told me it doesn't work. Now I know. thanks.


Word from the CDC is that the flu vaccine is 40-60% effective. Not perfect, by any means, but hardly "doesn't work". 




__





Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do Flu Vaccines Work? | CDC


Influenza vaccine effectiveness questions and answers - CDC




www.cdc.gov





Here's the list of papers they cite in the above article:




__





Benefits of Influenza Vaccination: Selected Publications | CDC


Benefits of Influenza Vaccination: Selected Publications - CDC




www.cdc.gov


----------



## Pluto

Spudd said:


> Word from the CDC is that the flu vaccine is 40-60% effective. Not perfect, by any means, but hardly "doesn't work".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do Flu Vaccines Work? | CDC
> 
> 
> Influenza vaccine effectiveness questions and answers - CDC
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here's the list of papers they cite in the above article:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Benefits of Influenza Vaccination: Selected Publications | CDC
> 
> 
> Benefits of Influenza Vaccination: Selected Publications - CDC
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov


Deaths from the flu keep rising despite 40 - 60% effectiveness. Hmmmm. something is awry.


----------



## sags

The population is growing and aging, so there will be more deaths from all causes.


----------



## sags

The number of vehicle accident claims are down and some companies are giving rebates, so the lockdown probably saved lives on the roads.

There are probably fewer workplace accidents, swimming accidents, boating accidents as well.

On balance the COVID lockdown has probably saved many lives.


----------



## Longtimeago

A somewhat interesting side issue of the virus is how differences in culture even within a country can affect the outcome. In particular, I am thinking about the willingness to accept or not accept advice that is seen as 'government interference in how I live my life' or the 'no one can tell me what to do' syndrome.

I see it in the USA, Quebec and the north of England. All places that tend to say, 'I'm gonna do what I want, never mind what it might do to anyone else (or even to myself).'


----------



## Prairie Guy

And the flip side of that are the people willing to give up every last bit of freedom they have left for more government control for the illusion of safety.

If you're scared you can stay at home cowering under the covers for the rest of your life, but you don't have the right to tell me I have to when the fatality rate for my demographic is less than that of the flu.


----------



## sags

True, but then you should only co-mingle with others who feel the same way, which evidently is a small but noisy portion of the population.

You also shouldn't expect doctors and nurses to risk their health and lives to treat you if you get the virus.

I read about preachers and protestors who railed against the shutdown and are now in ICU units or have died.

I hope they didn't infect others by their actions.


----------



## Plugging Along

Prairie Guy said:


> And the flip side of that are the people willing to give up every last bit of freedom they have left for more government control for the illusion of safety.
> 
> If you're scared you can stay at home cowering under the covers for the rest of your life, but you don't have the right to tell me I have to when the fatality rate for my demographic is less than that of the flu.


I can see both sides being I am at a lower risk group, but my parents and family are not. The challenge with allowing those who are at a lower risk do what they want, they can still infect others at a higher risk group. 

I would say if people really want to go out and take their chances despite government warnings, they should sign something indicating they and their families will not ask for any assistance as a result of their actions. If one ends up catching COVID because they choose not to follow, then they don't get to get medical treatment and they nurse themselves back to health. If they do end up sick, then they must self quarantine without any assistance. No CERB, no nothing. If they get anyone else sick, they must be responsible for the care of the others in terms of cost, if the others are demonstrate they followed the recommendations, they will get covered, otherwise they are on their own. 

It would be like the insurance policies. You break their rules, you are on your own. 

The safety nets we have in Canada are quite generous (overly generous in my view), but it does come at a price. If one doesn't like the price, then go elsewhere, or sign away the safety nets.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Plugging Along said:


> I can see both sides being I am at a lower risk group, but my parents and family are not. The challenge with allowing those who are at a lower risk do what they want, they can still infect others at a higher risk group.
> 
> I would say if people really want to go out and take their chances despite government warnings, they should sign something indicating they and their families will not ask for any assistance as a result of their actions. If one ends up catching COVID because they choose not to follow, then they don't get to get medical treatment and they nurse themselves back to health. If they do end up sick, then they must self quarantine without any assistance. No CERB, no nothing. If they get anyone else sick, they must be responsible for the care of the others in terms of cost, if the others are demonstrate they followed the recommendations, they will get covered, otherwise they are on their own.
> 
> It would be like the insurance policies. You break their rules, you are on your own.
> 
> The safety nets we have in Canada are quite generous (overly generous in my view), but it does come at a price. If one doesn't like the price, then go elsewhere, or sign away the safety nets.


Can we apply the same logic to the flu? Anyone who doesn't quarantine during flu season or get a flu shot will be refused medical treatment? And if you give someone else the flu you must pay for their treatment?


----------



## Plugging Along

Prairie Guy said:


> Can we apply the same logic to the flu? Anyone who doesn't quarantine during flu season or get a flu shot will be refused medical treatment? And if you give someone else the flu you must pay for their treatment?


If there was a public health warning on the flu, I would say yes. COVID is not the flu. They do have vaccinations for the fl. At many health care places, they tell the staff if they choose not to get the flu shot, and they get sick, they will not pay for sick days. 

The risks for COVID are much higher than the flu, enough that it’s been declared a pandemic. I have say if a strain of the flu is serious enough to declare pandemic then if you don’t follow the recommendations, don’t get treatment.


----------



## Beaver101

Plugging Along said:


> I can see both sides being I am at a lower risk group, but my parents and family are not. The challenge with allowing those who are at a lower risk do what they want, they can still infect others at a higher risk group.
> 
> I would say if people really want to go out and take their chances despite government warnings, they should sign something indicating they and their families will not ask for any assistance as a result of their actions. If one ends up catching COVID because they choose not to follow, then they don't get to get medical treatment and they nurse themselves back to health. * If they do end up sick, then they must self quarantine without any assistance. No CERB, no nothing. If they get anyone else sick, they must be responsible for the care of the others in terms of cost, if the others are demonstrate they followed the recommendations, they will get covered, otherwise they are on their own. *
> 
> It would be like the insurance policies. You break their rules, you are on your own.
> 
> The safety nets we have in Canada are quite generous (overly generous in my view), but it does come at a price. If one doesn't like the price, then go elsewhere, or sign away the safety nets.


 ... better yet, getting sued for infecting others.


----------



## Longtimeago

While idiots are calling to be allowed to do as they please and businesses are calling to be allowed to re-open, what is happening in long term care homes continues to be ignored. Now we have 28 military personnel who have been working in LTC homes in Ontario and Quebec testing positive for the virus. What does that tell us?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pandemic-covid-coronavirus-canadian-forces-long-term-care-1.5578948



Clearly, NO improvement in how patients and staff are being dealt with in LTC homes is happening. They are continuing to FAIL to isolate those in these homes and as a result, the virus is continuing to spread.

When a patient tests positive what do you think then happens? A patient in a Laval, Quebec LTC home was reportedly left in a room with a CORPSE for 24 hours. Imagine yourself being positive and lying in your bed in your bedroom suffering from the virus. In another single bed across the room from you there is another resident who has tested positive. Once in a while, someone comes in and looks at you. That's your CARE. You are not taken from the home to a hospital, you are kept in that room. Then the other resident in your room dies. Someone comes in and sees the person is dead. Then they leave you alone for another 24 hours before they remove the body. HOW is that CARE?

When someone NOT in a LTC home gets very ill and needs healthcare, we call an ambulance and they are taken to a hospital. This is 'standard operating procedure'. Why is it not the same with someone in an LTC home who has Covid-19? It's not like a resident suddenly has a heart attack or stroke and dies in the LTC home. It's a progressive illness over a period of time. But it seems at no point in that progress does it mean the person is taken to a hospital.

They are not telling us this is what is happening and has been since the beginning. Why when someone in a LTC home tests positive and goes beyond the first symptoms are they KEPT in that home and not transferred to hospital?


----------



## Longtimeago

Now read this link for the answer to my question of why LTC residents are not being transferred to a hospital. It may open some eyes as to what is happening.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-long-term-care-1.5519657



EACH LTC home makes its own decisions as does each attending physician and each local Public Health Department. There is no LAW that says, 'when someone, anyone is seriously ill, you MUST call for an ambulance to take them to a hospital.'

So people are making these DECISIONS for our seniors. They are deciding seniors will left to die if they get the virus. Clearly, this is happening but it is NOT being talked about. Imagine yourself as someone in the CBC article being told, 'there's no point sending your parent to a hospital, s/he will die anyway.' Put YOURSELF in those shoes and see how they fit your belief as to how we treat our seniors.

Nor are they just making the decision to let someone die. They are at the same time making the decision to increase the risk of infection for everyone else in the LTC home since the person is not being fully isolated. That's why 28 army personnel have been infected. That's why it has spread throughout a LTC home once it gets in.


----------



## Longtimeago

This pandemic is showing us a lot of the shortcomings of our healthcare system when it comes to seniors. We basically, treat our seniors differently from everyone else and we do not treat them well at all. We treat them as if they no longer matter. They're past their 'usefulness' to society, they're 'discardable', they're really just an 'annoyance' that we wish would just 'go away' and let us get on with our oh so busy and important lives.

How important our seniors are to some of us is summed up very clearly in this statement from a poster above,_ "but
you don't have the right to tell me I have to when the fatality rate for my demographic is less than that of the flu"._


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> Now read this link for the answer to my question of why LTC residents are not being transferred to a hospital. It may open some eyes as to what is happening.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-long-term-care-1.5519657
> 
> 
> 
> EACH LTC home makes its own decisions as does each attending physician and each local Public Health Department. There is no LAW that says, 'when someone, anyone is seriously ill, you MUST call for an ambulance to take them to a hospital.'
> 
> *So people are making these DECISIONS for our seniors. They are deciding seniors will left to die if they get the virus. Clearly, this is happening but it is NOT being talked about. Imagine yourself as someone in the CBC article being told, 'there's no point sending your parent to a hospital, s/he will die anyway.' Put YOURSELF in those shoes and see how they fit your belief as to how we treat our seniors.*
> 
> Nor are they just making the decision to let someone die. They are at the same time making the decision to increase the risk of infection for everyone else in the LTC home since the person is not being fully isolated. That's why 28 army personnel have been infected. That's why it has spread throughout a LTC home once it gets in.


 ... the bolded part is nothing new or a change in mindset for "*decades*". Seniors are viewed as passed its BB date. [Even Ms. Elliott has bluntly viewed these as "collateral damages" in this pandemic as harsh as seems to be.] While not in the pandemic phase, deaths of seniors are viewed merely as "this is LIFE".

As for the "YOURSELF", that question should be asked of the physicians, LTC, hospital administrators, Public Health Care, nurses or just about those in the "healthcare" profession that can make the difference ... do they not have parents or become a "senior" themselves? Guess it's just easier to act like ostriches or have the* teflon mindsets *with the "ain't gonna to happen to Me, Me, Me" too or my parents ain't in those LTCs.


----------



## sags

When the lawsuit lawyers get done with the nursing homes, they will be making changes if they are still in business.

After insurance companies pay out the hundreds of millions in claims, they won't be want to insure LTA homes anymore.

The government is going to be forced to buy, renovate or build new nursing homes.


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> When the lawsuit lawyers get done with the nursing homes, they will be making changes if they are still in business.
> 
> After insurance companies pay out the hundreds of millions in claims, they won't be want to insure LTA homes anymore.
> 
> The government is going to be forced to buy, renovate or build new nursing homes.


How has it been determined that there will be hundreds of millions in claims? And to we know that there is insurance to cover such claims and that insurance companies have hundreds of millions to pay out? 

And as for government, is that its job? Should not seniors be prepared to take care of themselves? They just might have to accept that the level of care they desire costs $10,000 a month and if you can pay it, fine, if not, don't expect those who worked hard all their lives and saved up to cover you, who partied and smoked dope for years. 

And will "government" have the money anyway? There will never be a cure or vaccine (or even on the off chance it might be found, it's many years in the future), so lockdown must be regarded as permanent and "government" will have to carry on with CERB and other handouts to the indolent for the foreseeable future. I just wonder how long before the larder is bare? Or is "government" sitting on a treasure trove of wealth that knows no bounds?

It is now generally accepted that there will never ever be a return to "normal". Now, the catchphrase is the "new normal". On Vancouver news the other night there was talk of some "re-opening of the economy". So far as I am aware, the "economy" was never closed, but government edicts crippled a good portion of it. 

The tv broadcast included mention of how some restaurants would re-open with limited seating, plexiglass barriers, all staff masked, hand sanitizing stations, etc. Will the public embrace that? Looked horrible to me. Hardly conducive to an enjoyable dining experience. They mentioned that self-serve buffet-style meals are gone forever. Our family used to eat in restaurants quite often. I do not expect to ever enter a restaurant again. Ditto for a barbershop. They showed that on tv, all the "new normal" way of doing things and the new C-19 surcharge being added to everyone's bill at salons and barbershops. My wife has cut my hair for many years and that will continue, and I'll continue to trim hers. But were she not there, there are Youtube videos showing how to cut your own hair. I predict that within a fairly short time, restaurants, hair salons, etc., will lapse into history. Brick and mortar stores will die out. Even grocery stores won't exist. All online and delivery. Forget about going to Home Depot and finding boards you think are not warped. Take what's delivered, or do as locals here do and mill your own.

One thing coming for sure, the public will demand the closure of just about everything. The majority on this board decry those growing restive in lockdown, who go out sans masks, who fail to be astute to keeping 2 meters of distance at all times and other egregious misconduct. People are becoming unafraid to yell "back off" at anyone entering their airspace. Everyone is becoming afraid of everyone. I witnessed near fistfights at a Costco yesterday and the pressure to keep distance was perhaps the only impediment to physical violence. But that won't last. There will be violence if the public continues to be exposed to the public. Hence, "the public" is coming to want "immunity passports" and those without (most of us) better stay out of sight. Such be the new normal. 

All good for the environment though. Good to see some downside for all those hypocrites who have spoken of global warming, or climate change or whatever it is, and who have condemned the use of fossil fuels, while taking frequent vacations abroad and burning a lot of fuel to get there and back. International air travel is definitely a thing of the past. All those parked fleets of aircraft can now be recycled into beer cans. Those without immunity passports will not be allowed to drive and so motor vehicle use will abate significantly. Another boon for Mother Nature. So C-19 has a decidedly silver lining.

I expect, too, that office work will not be a part of the new normal. Can't have all those people together. So, any job that cannot be done from home won't be there anymore. Office towers will come on sale. Maybe converted into warehouse space for Amazon.com. 

And that brings us full circle to sags' comment about the "lawsuit lawyers". Our courts here are closed. That's probably permanent. All litigation now will be by written submission (that has started here already with the Civil Resolution Tribunal) and by video link. Conventional trials with a public gallery won't be seen again.


----------



## cainvest

Mukhang pera said:


> It is now generally accepted that there will never ever be a return to "normal". Now, the catchphrase is the "new normal".


It will return to normal, given some time. The "new normal" is just the current phrase used to remind those that covid is still around. Looking around today it is hard to tell there was/is a pandemic going on, many people are almost treating it like the "old normal" already around here.


----------



## bgc_fan

Not good news for hydroxychloroquine proponents: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

Maybe marijuana is the answer? Cannabis shows promise blocking coronavirus infection: Alberta researcher


----------



## agent99

If Trump does not get ill from the HQ itself, and does not test positive for Covid-19, then when all this is almost over in a few months, he can claim to be the genius that he no doubt is. And get re-elected. Who would not vote for a genius?


----------



## Prairie Guy

agent99 said:


> If Trump does not get ill from the HQ itself, and does not test positive for Covid-19, then when all this is almost over in a few months, he can claim to be the genius that he no doubt is. And get re-elected. Who would not vote for a genius?


I guess all the medical experts that approved HQ decades ago, and all the ones that prescribed it for decades were completely wrong. And all the ones that prescribing it TODAY for Covid (with success) are wrong too.

Or, maybe it's just you that's wrong. What are your medical qualifications again?


----------



## like_to_retire

Mukhang pera said:


> And as for government, is that its job? Should not seniors be prepared to take care of themselves? They just might have to accept that the level of care they desire costs $10,000 a month and if you can pay it, fine, if not, don't expect those who worked hard all their lives and saved up to cover you, who partied and smoked dope for years.


Yeah, and unfortunately this is the case for many situations in our society. There are those of us who watch our pennies, and save up, and curb our spending, have emergency funds and prepare for any number of situations in the future, only to find our socialist government taking care of those that didn't bother being responsible about their future. It's a socialist kudos to expect to be bailed out by the government.



Mukhang pera said:


> There will never be a cure or vaccine (or even on the off chance it might be found, it's many years in the future)


I don't know. I read a lot of the trials being into their second phase now and many are quite promising. My view is that we will have a vaccine. Never underestimate US dollars being poured into a cause.



Mukhang pera said:


> The tv broadcast included mention of how some restaurants would re-open with limited seating, plexiglass barriers, all staff masked, hand sanitizing stations, etc. Will the public embrace that? Looked horrible to me. Hardly conducive to an enjoyable dining experience.


Yeah, a lot of these adaptations don't seem like a lot of fun.



Mukhang pera said:


> there are YouTube videos showing how to cut your own hair. I predict that within a fairly short time, restaurants, hair salons, etc., will lapse into history. Brick and mortar stores will die out. Even grocery stores won't exist. All online and delivery. Forget about going to Home Depot and finding boards you think are not warped. Take what's delivered, or do as locals here do and mill your own.


haha, I tried to cut a bit of my hair this week at the back and you can't imagine how weird it is to do the opposite of what you want when looking into a mirror. It's tough. I quit before I made a fool of myself. Maybe I'll look up one of those YouTube videos.

Your predictions are of course predicated on there being no vaccine, that I actually think will come. Don't under-estimate the power of money in the USA.

Anyway, lots of good thoughts and ideas as usual. 

ltr


----------



## Topo

From CNN on Moderna:









Moderna execs dumped nearly $30 million of stock after news of promising coronavirus vaccine


Moderna's stock price skyrocketed as much as 30% on Monday after the biotech company announced promising early results for its coronavirus vaccine. As ordinary investors piled in, two insiders were quietly heading for the exits.




www.cnn.com





That seems pretty fishy. If they thought they had a winner, why would they sell their options?


----------



## Topo

There is always a silver lining:









‘My life has changed a thousand-fold’: Campers move into hotel


After three years of “living under tarps,” James Reedman never could have imagined living somewhere as nice as the Comfort Inn and Suites.




www.timescolonist.com







> On the patio, people will be allowed to smoke opioids, McKenzie said, the clear glass windows ensuring outreach workers can respond immediately if someone overdoses.


I don't begrudge their current status a bit, but suggest that "Shangri-La" would be a better name than Comfort Inn.


----------



## fireseeker

Topo said:


> That seems pretty fishy. If they thought they had a winner, why would they sell their options?


From the story:


> The securities transactions were done through automated insider trading plans, known as 10b5-1 plans, that lay out future stock trades at set prices or on set dates.
> ...
> "On its face, there is nothing wrong with these trades," Whitehead said [professor at Cornell Law School]. "It's what a 10b5-1 plan is intended for, assuming the requirements are met."
> These plans regulate when and how many shares company insiders, including directors and executives, are allowed to sell. The transactions are typically executed automatically, without the insiders taking any action.


----------



## Topo

fireseeker said:


> From the story:


I see that it was done legally. Even if they had set the time or price a few months back, they could have cancelled it when all the good new came out. There would be no penalty for cancelling a sale. Investors would have applauded that.


----------



## bgc_fan

Topo said:


> I see that it was done legally. Even if they had set the time or price a few months back, they could have cancelled it when all the good new came out. There would be no penalty for cancelling a sale. Investors would have applauded that.


Except, wouldn't have that been the very definition of insider trading? I would have expected that once the good news came out, the stock soared past the goal stock price. I don't know specifics on how they could cancel the sale after the fact.


----------



## Topo

bgc_fan said:


> Except, wouldn't have that been the very definition of insider trading? I would have expected that once the good news came out, the stock soared past the goal stock price. I don't know specifics on how they could cancel the sale after the fact.


It depends when the transaction date was set vis a vis when decisions to work on the vaccine were made or results became available. The optics don't look good, but it could be perfectly legal.


----------



## sags

One hair stylist affects 91 customers and fellow workers in Missouri.

_Goddard did not provide details on the identity or the condition of the stylist. He said health officials have reached out to the people who were exposed, adding that the hairstylist had kept impeccable records that made contact tracing possible.
But he cautioned about the risks of overwhelming resources.
"I'm gong to be honest with you: We can't have many more of these," he said at a news conference. "We can't make this a regular habit or our capabilities as a community will be strained."_

It is going pretty much as the medical experts said it would.









A hairstylist worked while symptomatic and exposed 91 people to coronavirus | CNN


A hairstylist with coronavirus worked for eight days this month while symptomatic, exposing as many as 91 customers and coworkers in Missouri, health officials said.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Topo

A sign of the times:









With restaurants closed, rats are getting aggressive, the CDC says


With restaurants closed or open with limited capacity due to the coronavirus pandemic, a certain subset of those establishments' "patrons" is struggling.




www.cnn.com


----------



## sags

The Moderna executives could have set the sale price in advance, knowing they were going to make an announcement that would increase the stock value.


----------



## andrewf

Topo said:


> A sign of the times:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> With restaurants closed, rats are getting aggressive, the CDC says
> 
> 
> With restaurants closed or open with limited capacity due to the coronavirus pandemic, a certain subset of those establishments' "patrons" is struggling.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


My complex has put out outside rat poison/traps along the perimeter of the property. There are restaurants across the street that are considerably less busy now.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

bgc_fan said:


> Not good news for hydroxychloroquine proponents: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext
> 
> Maybe marijuana is the answer? Cannabis shows promise blocking coronavirus infection: Alberta researcher


I read that article. They discuss the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine with or without a macrolide. A macrolide is an antibiotic like azithromycin or erythromycin. They inhibit the growth of bacteria, they have no effect on viruses.

We already know that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine need zinc to work against Covid 19. They do not mention zinc at all.

If someone wanted to make this treatment appear ineffective this is the way to do it. Ignore what we know works, test what we know doesn't work, then report that it doesn't work. Brilliant.


----------



## bgc_fan

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I read that article. They discuss the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine with or without a macrolide. A macrolide is an antibiotic like azithromycin or erythromycin. They inhibit the growth of bacteria, they have no effect on viruses.
> 
> We already know that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine need zinc to work against Covid 19. They do not mention zinc at all.
> 
> If someone wanted to make this treatment appear ineffective this is the way to do it. Ignore what we know works, test what we know doesn't work, then report that it doesn't work. Brilliant.


You do realize that it was essentially a literature study that encompassed as many published studies as they could right? They didn't actually go out and performed a study on 96k patients. In other words, they were looking at what treatments were actually being used.

Oh, and if you haven't paid attention, Trump was touting the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.
Donald J. Trump


----------



## agent99

bgc_fan said:


> Oh, and if you haven't paid attention, Trump was touting the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.
> Donald J. Trump


The comments on the Tweets scare me as much as the Tweet itself. People believe this stuff. If DT says it, it must be true.


----------



## andrewf

Despite his qualifications being failed real estate magnate, fired reality TV star, head of a fraudulent university. Amazing that anyone considers him to be an authority on anything.


----------



## :) lonewolf

andrewf said:


> Despite his qualifications being failed real estate magnate, fired reality TV star, head of a fraudulent university. Amazing that anyone considers him to be an authority on anything.


Trump is our best bet to stop the scamdemic.


----------



## :) lonewolf

agent99 said:


> The comments on the Tweets scare me as much as the Tweet itself. People believe this stuff. If DT says it, it must be true.


People are naïve they believe WHO, CDC are not corrupt. I believe Trump is right they are corrupt


----------



## sags

_I believe for every drop of rain that falls
A flower grows
I believe that somewhere in the darkest night
A candle glows
I believe for everyone who goes astray Donald Trump will come
To show the way
I believe, I believe......_


----------



## andrewf

:) lonewolf said:


> People are naïve they believe WHO, CDC are not corrupt. I believe Trump is right they are corrupt


People are naive if they believe Trump is not corrupt. From day 1 he has made it clear we won't obey ethics guidelines and is not concerned about any perception he is using his office to enrich himself.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Donald Trump is the luckiest son of a ***** to ever live. In spite of being a complete moron and failure he built a billion dollar real estate empire, had his own TV series for 13 years, and got elected President starting from scratch with no political experience and no support from either party. He could fall down a **** house and come out smelling like a rose.

If his luck holds he will be good for the country in spite of himself because it is the only way he can go down in history as a successful President.


----------



## Longtimeago

agent99 said:


> The comments on the Tweets scare me as much as the Tweet itself. People believe this stuff. If DT says it, it must be true.


Apparently, something like 45% of all Tweets on Covid 19 have been found to be 'bot tweets' primarily originating in Russia and China.








Researchers: Nearly Half Of Accounts Tweeting About Coronavirus Are Likely Bots


Researchers culled through more than 200 million tweets discussing the virus since January and found that about 45% were sent by accounts that behave more like computerized robots than humans.




www.npr.org


----------



## andrewf

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Donald Trump is the luckiest son of a *** to ever live. In spite of being a complete moron and failure he built a billion dollar real estate empire, had his own TV series for 13 years, and got elected President starting from scratch with no political experience and no support from either party. He could fall down a **** house and come out smelling like a rose.
> 
> If his luck holds he will be good for the country in spite of himself because it is the only way he can go down in history as a successful President.


Trump built a real estate empire? He inherited his wealth from dad, and lied about it. Now, Trump's real estate empire consists mostly of selling his name to be put on buildings that he is not allowed within 40ft of management. He is more a lifestyle celebrity a la Kim Kardashian than a successful businessman. But Kim is better at it.


----------



## calm

I think that any city which requires a workforce to use public transit (subway/bus) are totally doomed.
I think we are watching the collapse of the American Empire.
America must print/spend/borrow 1 trillion dollars per month just to keep the pitch forks off the street.
I suspect that the Ruling Class are simply attempting to stall out until the cold weather returns and then introduce martial law.


----------



## Prairie Guy

andrewf said:


> Trump built a real estate empire? He inherited his wealth from dad...


What a putz...all he did was turn a few million into a few billion. In the toughest reals estate market in the country.

I'm sure you've done much better. Why don't you tell us all about it?


----------



## andrewf

He received $400 million in inflation adjusted terms ~30+ years ago from his father's business. We could compare notes on my performance if I was given that sum and was 75 years old. You might have to wait a while.

Not very impressive compared to real entrepreneurs like Zuckerberg, Gates, Musk, Jobs, Mark Cuban, etc. (ie, real billionaires that could lose Trump's wealth in their couch cushions) Trump is a trust fund baby.


----------



## bgc_fan

Rusty O'Toole said:


> If his luck holds he will be good for the country in spite of himself because it is the only way he can go down in history as a successful President.


Hold on here. His luck has only been good for him, no one else. He's left a trail of bankrupt businesses with others holding the bag. He's been good at being able to personally benefit from other people losing money. As long as he is able to make a quick buck out of being President, that's all he cares. He has always been about himself. A more plausible outcome is that US economy falters he leaves office, yet somehow he ends up with multi-million dollar deals because foreign investors (read Russian or Saudi) want to leverage his name.


----------



## calm

bgc_fan said:


> Hold on here. His luck has only been good for him, no one else. He's left a trail of bankrupt businesses with others holding the bag. He's been good at being able to personally benefit from other people losing money. As long as he is able to make a quick buck out of being President, that's all he cares. He has always been about himself. A more plausible outcome is that US economy falters he leaves office, yet somehow he ends up with multi-million dollar deals because foreign investors (read Russian or Saudi) want to leverage his name.


I think Trump is wealthy because he had an Economic Terrorist (Allen Weisselberg) as an accountant and that is why he is refusing to submit them to public scrutiny.


----------



## bgc_fan

calm said:


> I think Trump is wealthy because he had an Economic Terrorist (Allen Weisselberg) as an accountant and that is why he is refusing to submit them to public scrutiny.


I don't think that's necessarily the case. It's known that many deals that he has made usually profit him directly, regardless of the outcome, i.e. venture falling through the sewer. The question is more, why are people doing business with him when he has no business acumen? That's what usually leads to the speculation of Russian money laundering, since they bank on his name to make "deals". It doesn't matter if they lose some money, as long as the majority is clean, that's all that matters.


----------



## Longtimeago

Why can't you people leave out comments that are not part of the topic of this thread? Take Trump elsewhere if you want to debate about him.

Today we heard about a report by the military personnel called in to help in LTC homes. Their report basically CONDEMNS the homes they are helping in. That is a subject that belongs on this thread, not comments about Trump.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/long-term-care-pandemic-covid-coronavirus-trudeau-1.5584960



There is no doubt there is more than enough fault to go around for everyone involved in this disgusting situation in our LTC homes but I have a question for anyone in this forum who has a family member in one of these homes. What are YOU going to do about it?


----------



## calm

My daughter has been hired by _Plan A Timmins_ to assist in retirement homes.
They pay only 30 bucks per hour. I would of thought that they would need to pay twice that much.


----------



## Mukhang pera

calm said:


> My daughter has been hired by _Plan A Timmins_ to assist in retirement homes.
> They pay only 30 bucks per hour. I would of thought that they would need to pay twice that much.


If she's working as an RN, that seems like a low wage, at least in the near term.

But what they "need to pay" is, I dare say, a function of supply and demand. Your daughter apparently agreed to work for 30 bucks an hour. So there was no need to pay more. She, and all others, could have simply refused to work unless the ante was upped to 60 an hour.

I could be wrong, but my guess is that when Justin's helicopter money finally runs out and no more can be squeezed out of the handful of taxpayers left standing, there's going to be more than enough unemployment to go around. There will be competition for 30 bucks an hour. No matter what the job. Wages will fall. So your kid should make hay while the sun shines.


----------



## calm

Mukhang pera said:


> If she's working as an RN, that seems like a low wage, at least in the near term.
> 
> But what they "need to pay" is, I dare say, a function of supply and demand. Your daughter apparently agreed to work for 30 bucks an hour. So there was no need to pay more. She, and all others, could have simply refused to work unless the ante was upped to 60 an hour.
> 
> I could be wrong, but my guess is that when Justin's helicopter money finally runs out and no more can be squeezed out of the handful of taxpayers left standing, there's going to be more than enough unemployment to go around. There will be competition for 30 bucks an hour. No matter what the job. Wages will fall. So your kid should make hay while the sun shines.


No. She is not an RN.
I just thought that with so much death within these homes that any company would of been ashamed to offer 30 bucks per hour. But with so many unemployed, they could of probably offered minimum wage.


----------



## bgc_fan

Longtimeago said:


> There is no doubt there is more than enough fault to go around for everyone involved in this disgusting situation in our LTC homes but I have a question for anyone in this forum who has a family member in one of these homes. What are YOU going to do about it?


Likewise, there's that thread you posted on LTC. No reason why you should bring up what people should do for family members in LTC homes in the general COVID 19 thread.


----------



## calm

CNN just reported that the CDC claims that the testing for antibodies is only 50% accurate or much like a coin toss.


----------



## Mukhang pera

calm said:


> No. She is not an RN.
> I just thought that with so much death within these homes that any company would of been ashamed to offer 30 bucks per hour. But with so many unemployed, they could of probably offered minimum wage.


That's my point. Right now, I see anyone offering a job as in the driver's seat. Well, maybe not just yet. Too many getting CERB and other freebies, with many getting more money than they are accustomed to. But I do not expect that to go on for the years it will take for the whole C-19 debacle to settle down. 

My wife recently took a job as a hospital cleaner. I think she gets about $14.50/hr. from what I saw when helping her with the initial paperwork. That's the pay for cleaning up all day what is best left unmentioned here. And at a locale I would consider every bit as fraught with danger as a retirement home. They treat C-19 patients there and patients with worse. 

But I am sure my wife could not tell you what is her wage, nor does she care. She feels it is some form of civic duty. In our 20 years together, it's only the second job she has held. She had another job for about 6 months. Again, she never knew what her wage was, nor did she care. If they didn't pay, she would have done it anyway. Same now. 

In her previous work, I looked at her pay stubs. The employer was not paying overtime correctly and there were other calculation "errors" that favoured the employer. I wanted to raise it with the employer. I know the Employment Standards Act far better than most employers, large and small. She would not allow it. She said it did not matter and forget about it. So I did. A corollary is, of course, that others were then being underpaid and still are, most likely.


----------



## calm

I know exactly what you are talking about when mentioning that the employer did not pay accurately.
It is for that reason that I got involved with Unionism. So many employees had these kind of problems and asked around the shop for information.
I ran for a local union president twice and won.
I have also owned a few sole proprietorship business.


----------



## :) lonewolf

andrewf said:


> He received $400 million in inflation adjusted terms ~30+ years ago from his father's business. We could compare notes on my performance if I was given that sum and was 75 years old. You might have to wait a while.
> 
> Not very impressive compared to real entrepreneurs like Zuckerberg, Gates, Musk, Jobs, Mark Cuban, etc. (ie, real billionaires that could lose Trump's wealth in their couch cushions) Trump is a trust fund baby.


Baits cant even keep a virus out of his computer, funds the most corrupt organizations ever to get a monopoly on global health to control the population of the world & people thinks he is a hero. Trump tells the people to liberate their States & is viewed as a villain.

The world would resemble heaven if people took responsibility for themselves instead of wanting to be babysat.


----------



## andrewf

bgc_fan said:


> I don't think that's necessarily the case. It's known that many deals that he has made usually profit him directly, regardless of the outcome, i.e. venture falling through the sewer. The question is more, why are people doing business with him when he has no business acumen? That's what usually leads to the speculation of Russian money laundering, since they bank on his name to make "deals". It doesn't matter if they lose some money, as long as the majority is clean, that's all that matters.


Western banks won't touch him. Don Jr mentioned that their financing comes from Russia.


----------



## andrewf

calm said:


> CNN just reported that the CDC claims that the testing for antibodies is only 50% accurate or much like a coin toss.


Depends on the test.


----------



## :) lonewolf

Tanzania president samples taken from goat & papaya test positive for COVID 19 using test kits provided for by Bill Gates.


----------



## bgc_fan

:) lonewolf said:


> Tanzania president samples taken from goat & papaya test positive for COVID 19 using test kits provided for by Bill Gates.


Given that we're talking about a president who has been in denial about the COVID 19, and believes it can be cured by herbal remedies, I'm going to with the idea that he's lying. Keep in mind, it's only his word and he has not offered any proof. He's done similar things during the Ebola outbreak... 
Tanzanian president blames lab after goat, papaya ‘test positive’ for coronavirus


----------



## andrewf

:) lonewolf said:


> Tanzania president samples taken from goat & papaya test positive for COVID 19 using test kits provided for by Bill Gates.


I thought you didn't trust government sources? Or just when they confirm your preconceived notions? I mean, why would you trust the government of Tanzania without question but not that of Canada or the US?


----------



## Money172375

Sweden has the highest daily coronavirus death rate in the world – and it’s getting worse


As such, Sweden’s ‘restrictions’ were more advisory than ruling, trusting that Swedes should exercise “common sense” and use “good judgment” when going about their daily lives.




ca.yahoo.com


----------



## sags

Wow....and to think Sweden was touted by the "unlockers" as the way to deal with the virus.


----------



## Beaver101

^ It will interesting to see how the Swedes' experiment goes when Covid19 ends at some point in time in the future ... like some kind of mortality batting competition.


On the flip-side (bright) maybe all of Swedish will be (herd) immunized against C-19 ... only to find C-nth emerges. At least then their health system is still robust to take on whatever Covid wave that comes along.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

More on that dodgy Lancet study criticizing chloroquine. The Guardian looked into it and found it more than a little suspicious.








Questions raised over hydroxychloroquine study which caused WHO to halt trials for Covid-19


Exclusive: Australian researchers query origin of data used for Lancet study, but stress there is no evidence drug is a safe or effective treatment




www.theguardian.com


----------



## sags

I think when reputable medical research states that it is a safe drug combination, it would be worthwhile to consider.

Until then, saying one study is suspect, while also stressing there is no evidence it is safe to use......is a whole lot of nothing.

Maybe it is safe and maybe it isn't, but you could say that about pretty much anything. 

"Give it a try and see what happens" isn't usually a very good idea.


----------



## bgc_fan

Rusty O'Toole said:


> More on that dodgy Lancet study criticizing chloroquine. The Guardian looked into it and found it more than a little suspicious.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Questions raised over hydroxychloroquine study which caused WHO to halt trials for Covid-19
> 
> 
> Exclusive: Australian researchers query origin of data used for Lancet study, but stress there is no evidence drug is a safe or effective treatment
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


Not much, other than the fact that the authors mis-characterized one of the hospitals, and that a physician says they've never heard of the site that collected the info. Nothing to actually state the the information is wrong.

There's obvious issues with current studies as the information isn't from random clinical trials. A lot of the patients (not all) who are undertaking the treatment are usually those that are highest risk of dying which is going to skew the results.


----------



## Money172375

Haven’t seen this theory before. Superspreaders are the cause Of covid19 and may make it easier to defeat.









‘Superspreaders’ Could Actually Make Covid-19 Easier to Control


The surprising implications of the disease’s tendency to spread in big bunches.




www.bloomberg.com


----------



## calm

*Public-health officials stage ‘mutiny’ against province’s COVID-19 plan*


The heads of all 34 local public-health units in Ontario have signed on to a plan that diverges from the province’s COVID-19 strategy in key ways. It lays out more detailed conditions for reopening, such as a two- to four-week decline in new daily cases and a seven-day decline in new illnesses caused by community spread. It also suggests taking a region-by-region rather than a provincewide approach to reopening. “It’s a mutiny. Wow,” said Andrew Morris, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Toronto, to the _Toronto Star_.


----------



## andrewf

Wow indeed.


----------



## Money172375

calm said:


> *Public-health officials stage ‘mutiny’ against province’s COVID-19 plan*
> 
> 
> The heads of all 34 local public-health units in Ontario have signed on to a plan that diverges from the province’s COVID-19 strategy in key ways. It lays out more detailed conditions for reopening, such as a two- to four-week decline in new daily cases and a seven-day decline in new illnesses caused by community spread. It also suggests taking a region-by-region rather than a provincewide approach to reopening. “It’s a mutiny. Wow,” said Andrew Morris, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Toronto, to the _Toronto Star_.


damn paywall! I thought the Star was providing covid related content for free.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> *Public-health officials stage ‘mutiny’ against province’s COVID-19 plan*
> 
> 
> The heads of all 34 local public-health units in Ontario have signed on to a plan that diverges from the province’s COVID-19 strategy in key ways. It lays out more detailed conditions for reopening, such as a two- to four-week decline in new daily cases and a seven-day decline in new illnesses caused by community spread. It also suggests taking a region-by-region rather than a provincewide approach to reopening. “It’s a mutiny. Wow,” said Andrew Morris, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Toronto, to the _Toronto Star_.


The article is paywalled and the quote you give does not make the basic question and answer clear. Are ALL 34 public health units really saying as the article says, they are in favour of regional opening? Yes or no? I have heard several local heads of public health units say they are definitely NOT in favour. That would seem to be contrary to the article you tried to link.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/coronavirus-regional-phaseouts-restrictions-ontario-1.5587104



This issue is actually pretty clear in terms of who wants what. Given the choice, health units wouldn't want to open anything until there are zero cases for a prolonged period. Business and employees on the other hand would like to open up everything tomorrow. They are diametrically opposed views and priorities.

The idea of a regional easing up will appeal to businesses and workers in the lower risk areas but will NOT appeal to anyone who does not want to see the risk increase in their area. The reality is, if you can get a haircut in Chatham but not in Windsor, some people will travel from Windsor to Chatham to get a haircut. There would be no way to stop that happening and say, 'you can only get a haircut in Chatham if you live in Chatham.'

Now on the other hand, IF what the regional health units are talking about is a regional approach to say opening hospitals for elective surgery, that is an entirely different story. That could be done without it encouraging people to travel from one region to another. But if you were to say open bars and restaurants on a regional basis, that would be a contact tracing disaster.


----------



## ian

Starting next month Alberta will be distributing face masks to everyone. They will be distributed through drive up restaurant windows...MacDonalds, A&W etc. They expect this method will allow them to reach 95 percent of the population.


----------



## Money172375

New positive tests in Italy show the virus is now much weaker.





__





New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says


ROME — The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.




nationalpost.com


----------



## :) lonewolf

Money172375 said:


> New positive tests in Italy show the virus is now much weaker.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says
> 
> 
> ROME — The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> New positive tests in Italy show the virus is now much weaker.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says
> 
> 
> ROME — The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


This is expected to happen over time (but maybe not this quickly).


----------



## Money172375

andrewf said:


> This is expected to happen over time (but maybe not this quickly).


The WHO is now saying otherwise.



https://www.thelocal.it/20200601/coronavirus-is-not-becoming-less-potent-who-says-after-italian-doctor-claim


----------



## andrewf

Viruses tend to become less severe over time. A virus that kills its host is likely to be outcompeted by a mutation that is more benign and allows its host continue functioning while spreading the virus.


----------



## Longtimeago

One 'theory' or opinion does not a case make OR disprove. We always see people here trying to hang their hat on one link they find saying one thing or another.

Maybe it is getting less severe and maybe it isn't, there is not enough EVIDENCE to really state either as a FACT and that is where the confusion can arise. One doctor STATING as a FACT it is becoming less severe is not the same thing as a scientific study which provides actual evidence to support a theory.

But when a reader reads something that they WANT to believe and it is being stated as a fact, they just grab on to that and run with it. They don't bother to do any more in depth reading to answer for themselves is this FACT or OPINION.


----------



## andrewf

I don't see why you feel the need to SHOUT. Excessive use of caps is not really good internet form. It conveys the tone that you are on your soapbox ranting. If that's what you're going for, by all means carry on. It is just a bit grating, and perhaps needlessly so. Particularly because I don't know who you think you are disagreeing with or directing your ire at.


----------



## bgc_fan

Looks like Sweden is having second thoughts on their strategy. A bit late to try a lockdown though. Doesn't look like their economy has been spared and are locked out of traveling to other Scandinavian countries.
Sweden could have handled coronavirus response better, chief epidemiologist admits


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> I don't see why you feel the need to SHOUT. Excessive use of caps is not really good internet form. It conveys the tone that you are on your soapbox ranting. If that's what you're going for, by all means carry on. It is just a bit grating, and perhaps needlessly so. Particularly because I don't know who you think you are disagreeing with or directing your ire at.


I use caps as a way to EMPHASIS a word andrewf. I could use bold or italics to try to convey emphasis but it's just easier to use caps. I know it is considered shouting in 'internet etiquette' but I've never been one to conform to every accepted 'norm'. You might also notice that I often use quote marks around commonly used terms or phrases, like, 'internet etiquette'. Just a writing habit developed over time in internet forums.


----------



## Longtimeago

bgc_fan said:


> Looks like Sweden is having second thoughts on their strategy. A bit late to try a lockdown though. Doesn't look like their economy has been spared and are locked out of traveling to other Scandinavian countries.
> Sweden could have handled coronavirus response better, chief epidemiologist admits


Yes, their approach seems to have failed big time and now they are admitting that. Unfortunate for the Swedes that they went down that road and have had to pay the price in lives that they have paid.


----------



## sags

Fox News is going to be busy going back and changing their "Sweden beats virus without locking down" headlines.

Unfortunately, many of the horrendous death toll in Sweden were people in senior's homes.


----------



## Prairie Guy

You can't make this stuff up. Medical experts now say that they approve of the current protests because white supremacy is a lethal health issue. But don't you dare protest the lockdown you RACIST!!

I guess the lockdowns were never really about the virus. Why should anyone listen to them next time?

"As public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission,” wrote the health professionals in their letter. “We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States.”

“We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from demonstrators’ ability to gather and demand change,” they continue.

The letter goes on to state that their support for protests against racism during the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic should not “be confused” for them also having support for protests against lockdowns in response to the Chinese virus.

*“This should not be confused with a permissive stance on all gatherings, particularly protests against stay-home orders,” state the health professionals, who go on to bizarrely claim that such protests are also “rooted in white nationalism.”*

“Those actions not only oppose public health interventions, but are also rooted in white nationalism and run contrary to respect for Black lives,” reads the letter.

“White supremacy is a lethal public health issue that predates and contributes to COVID-19,” affirm the health professionals in their letter."









1,200+ Health Professionals Sign Letter Approving of Floyd Protests - but Disapproving of Lockdown Protests


More than 1,200 health professionals have signed a letter saying that they approve of protests against racism during the Chinese virus pandemic, because it is "vital to the national public health." The health professionals added, however, that protesting lockdown orders is still dangerous, and...




www.breitbart.com


----------



## calm

I think the study is just propaganda. Nonsense.

The Ruling Class know the anger on the streets,
That the virus of inequality is stronger than a fear of germs.
It is just propaganda rather than to admit that the Ruling Class have lost control ,,,,, lost the respect of 79% of the population.
At this time The Ruling Class has chosen to throw their arms up into the air as being hapless.
The NFL is a military institution. The U.S. military gives the NFL tons of money. Football was a game invented for military recruits.
For the head of that organization to come out and say "Let's Take A Knee" just shows you that the Ruling Class is struggling to maintain control of the revolt and the Covid-19 as well.


----------



## bgc_fan

Rusty O'Toole said:


> More on that dodgy Lancet study criticizing chloroquine. The Guardian looked into it and found it more than a little suspicious.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Questions raised over hydroxychloroquine study which caused WHO to halt trials for Covid-19
> 
> 
> Exclusive: Australian researchers query origin of data used for Lancet study, but stress there is no evidence drug is a safe or effective treatment
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


Looks like they retracted.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31324-6/fulltext


----------



## junior minor

In Sweden, people with coronavirus symptoms say getting a test is nearly impossible — and it affects their ability to get medical care *how awful must that feel. Wouldn't want to be in Sweden, a place where people's high immunity system kept them safe for quite some time until... *


"People that are like me, we don't exist," Karolin said, referring to those who haven't tested positive but show symptoms. "If I talk to friends and family, it feels almost like they don't trust me anymore."


----------



## Beaver101

junior minor said:


> In Sweden, people with coronavirus symptoms say getting a test is nearly impossible — and it affects their ability to get medical care *how awful must that feel. Wouldn't want to be in Sweden, a place where people's high immunity system kept them safe for quite some time until... *
> 
> 
> "People that are like me, we don't exist," Karolin said, referring to those who haven't tested positive but show symptoms. "If I talk to friends and family, it feels almost like they don't trust me anymore."


 ... I guess their government figured there is no point in getting anyone tested now. It's cheaper to just assume every Swedish has the Covid19 brand. And it would be safer for other countries to take note about opening its gates to that population ... gonna to be interesting.


----------



## Longtimeago

Somehow I missed the fact that the UK had not imposed a quarantine on travellers entering the country. They have just done so starting tomorrow.








Entering the UK


UK border control - passport checks, visas for entering, customs, transiting and layovers.




www.gov.uk





Talk about being behind the curve. 








UK currently has world's highest death rate from coronavirus, latest data shows


New daily deaths from Covid-19 in UK is close to that of all EU countries combined




www.independent.co.uk





We may not all be happy with our own performance here in Canada but it certainly could be worse.


----------



## like_to_retire

New coronavirus 'transmission eliminated' in New Zealand.

_New Zealand appears to have completely eradicated the coronavirus -- at least for now -- after health officials said Monday the last known infected person had recovered.
The announcement was greeted with joy around the country and means the nation of 5 million people will be among the first to welcome throngs of fans back into sports stadiums, embrace crowded concerts and remove seating restrictions from flights._

ltr


----------



## Longtimeago

like_to_retire said:


> New coronavirus 'transmission eliminated' in New Zealand.
> 
> _New Zealand appears to have completely eradicated the coronavirus -- at least for now -- after health officials said Monday the last known infected person had recovered.
> The announcement was greeted with joy around the country and means the nation of 5 million people will be among the first to welcome throngs of fans back into sports stadiums, embrace crowded concerts and remove seating restrictions from flights._
> 
> ltr


They imposed a strict lockdown on March 25 and we see the result. What's more, that included a ban on entry of any foreign travellers with very few exceptions and that ban continues. NO ONE gets in that is not a citizen or legal resident of New Zealand. Contrast that with the UK's only imposing a quarantine NOW on travellers entering the country, not a BAN on any foreign travellers entering.

Here in Canada, we also have a quarantine on anyone entering but also do not have a BAN on foreigners entering. It seems clear that the stricter the conditions imposed, the better the outcome.


----------



## calm

New Zealand is an island.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> New Zealand is an island.


Gee, who would have guessed. Thanks for that enlightenment calm. Or did you have some kind of point you were trying to make but didn't articulate?

While someone could sneak across our land border, a ban on all foreign travellers would nevertheless have reduced the risk of someone entering with the virus. The UK is an island but have only now introduced a quarantine on travellers entering the country and they have done very poorly in containing the virus. I would suggest to you calm that there is some correlation between travel and transmission of the virus, whether a country is an island or not. 

The only advantage I would give to New Zealand in regards to transmission introduced by travellers is that they have fewer travellers due to their LOCATION, not due to their being an island.


----------



## calm

New Zealand shut down the complete island and air travel and patrolled the shorelines until they had control and testing in place. Simple to accomplish on an island.
Britain has the tunnel to Europe and also a different mindset than New Zealand.


----------



## like_to_retire

calm said:


> Britain has the tunnel to Europe and also a different mindset than New Zealand.


We know that, it's the point.

Both are islands. Shut the tunnel and get a different mindset and see what can be accomplished.

ltr


----------



## calm

Oh! I apologize if I misunderstood your views.
I thought people were bragging about how New Zealand managed the virus compared to North America.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> Oh! I apologize if I misunderstood your views.
> I thought people were bragging about how New Zealand managed the virus compared to North America.


I live in Canada, why would I be bragging about New Zealand? My point is that what NZ did worked very well, we could have done the same with a much stricter border policy and sooner than we did even what we did do. We have continue to allow 'essential travel' into and out of the country and in my opinion, 'essential' has been too loosely defined. We were also too slow to restrict entry.


----------



## calm

We could not shut down because 80% of our stuff is by freight from all over the country.
We got ships in port waiting to be unloaded and shipped across Canada.
There is no shutting down Canada.
People can enter Canada anywhere.
For 50 years they have tried to stop the transportation of bales of pot and failed. A bale of pot is much larger and smellier than an infected human being..

New Zealand is another story.


----------



## Money172375

Some concerning data worldwide as it seems C19 is no longer the lead story.

I’ve been Waiting for Florida to spike......

CNN was displaying the running total on screen up until the Floyd murder. are things any better in the US from a Covid perspective....seems the US news hardly talks about it. obviously a concern from an economic and health standpoint to have SO many cases down there.


----------



## bgc_fan

I'd say it's going to get a lot worse in the states. They've started opening up certain states with pretty dodgy data, so we can expect a second wave to hit in a few weeks. Of course, some states have taken the approach of "if we don't test, we can't be infected", which doesn't work.


----------



## m3s

bgc_fan said:


> I'd say it's going to get a lot worse in the states. They've started opening up certain states with pretty dodgy data, so we can expect a second wave to hit in a few weeks. Of course, some states have taken the approach of "if we don't test, we can't be infected", which doesn't work.


It already started in the US today - 2.5 weeks after their memorial long weekend. Markets were down today


----------



## Longtimeago

I think a resurgence in many places including here in parts of Canada at least is inevitable as the media and political focus continues to move away from containing the virus.

Yesterday I was watching the Federal Update on Covid-19 and at least half of the questions they were being asked were about racism, the comments of the RCMP commissioner, etc. Nothing whatsoever to do with what was supposed to be a Covid-19 press conference.

It's like, 'we're bored with Covid now, let's move on to talking about other things.'


----------



## Longtimeago

m3s said:


> It already started in the US today - 2.5 weeks after their memorial long weekend. Markets were down today


It's rising in 21 states.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-coronavirus-spreading-south-1.5607770



Life is cheap in the USA I guess. Far better to be able to go and get a haircut.


----------



## calm

How are people going to travel to work in a large city?

I don't think that I want to ride the subway all shuffled in so I can closely smell an armpit unless I have a very good mask.

I don't think that just allowing me to cover my face as though Roy Rogers robbing a stage coach is sufficient protection while traveling within such a crowded space.

I need to be sure that all fellow passengers have very protective masks too, and have been trained on how to wear and fit a mask properly.

I can handle looking like Roy Rogers and the Boys while at work, but certainly not stacked within crowded public transit systems.

I want an especially good and efficient mask for the subway.

I just can't be leaving a subway platform and bring the virus home to Mother.


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> It already started in the US today - 2.5 weeks after their memorial long weekend. Markets were down today


Yup these trends in the US aren't good. I'm now on higher alert (day to day) than I was a few weeks ago, mainly because there is some US/Canada travel happening.

We should not get overconfident in Canada or overly comfortable. The moment US/Canada travels opens up again, we're at huge risk just because of the numbers of people who normally flow over that border.

I really don't know how we're going to handle this.


----------



## calm

I have kept mentioning this transit scenario since arriving here at thse forums.

Unless North America is able to transport the workforce within all large cities and to do so safely, they are toast.

The longer it takes to arrange safe travel on public transit, the more economic collapse.

That is why I am convinced we are watching the collapse of the American Empire.

Cities are going to be at a standstill til at least January of next year, (6 more months.)

Much money is going to flee the cities.

They will need to "Defund" police services and many other public services in all the cities.
I firmly beliece that the cuts to services will need to be so great that the city employee unions will be decertified.

Not being able to pile the passengers so closely together will result in at least a 30% drop in passengers. Maybe everyone to a three day work week and 2 groups work odd/even days.


----------



## doctrine

bgc_fan said:


> I'd say it's going to get a lot worse in the states. They've started opening up certain states with pretty dodgy data, so we can expect a second wave to hit in a few weeks. Of course, some states have taken the approach of "if we don't test, we can't be infected", which doesn't work.


How can you have a second wave when the first wave hasn't finished?

Look at California and Florida. They never had a drop. Just a slow steady increase. Maybe that's not a bad thing. These are states with huge populations and many large cities. 

What is interesting is that the death rate has dropped quite a bit. It is starting to reflect how many cases were not counted over the last few months. More are being found. So what is increasing faster - actual infection rates, or rates of discovery? It's not that easy to say.

Combine that with a false-positive rate that is up to 20%, and the higher cases now may just be because there is more testing and more false positives.


----------



## calm

A new cluster of Covid-19 cases has been discovered in Beijing, with infections being linked to a local food market. Official are now rushing to test over 10,000 of its employees.
----
Forty samples taken from the market’s surroundings also tested positive. In particular, the virus was discovered on a chopping board used by a seller of imported salmon.
June 13, 2020








‘Wartime-like’ response in Beijing as Covid-19 turns local market into hotspot


A new cluster of Covid-19 cases has been discovered in Beijing, with infections being linked to a local food market. Official are now rushing to test over 10,000 of its employees.




www.rt.com


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> I don't think that just allowing me to cover my face as though Roy Rogers robbing a stage coach is sufficient protection while traveling within such a crowded space.
> 
> I need to be sure that all fellow passengers have very protective masks too, and have been trained on how to wear and fit a mask properly.


Yet again this believe that wearing a mask protects YOU. A mask is worn to reduce the risk of spread FROM you to others. It provides very little protection to you FROM others.


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> Yup these trends in the US aren't good. I'm now on higher alert (day to day) than I was a few weeks ago, mainly because there is some US/Canada travel happening.
> 
> We should not get overconfident in Canada or overly comfortable. The moment US/Canada travels opens up again, we're at huge risk just because of the numbers of people who normally flow over that border.
> 
> I really don't know how we're going to handle this.


Even with the border 'closed' to non-essential travel, it appears that US tourists are using a loophole to enter Canada already.








B.C. campground owners told to 'babysit' American travellers during quarantine


The owners of a private campground in Golden B.C. say they've been told by authorities to keep watch over some American visitors who set up camp there this week after crossing into Alberta.



calgary.ctvnews.ca













The Canada-U.S. border is closed, but Americans are still coming through. Here's how.


While much of the tourist traffic in Canada's mountain parks has dropped off due to the COVID-19 pandemic, some Albertans visiting Banff have noticed some of our southern neighbours in the area.



calgary.ctvnews.ca


----------



## calm

Longtimeago said:


> Yet again this believe that wearing a mask protects YOU. A mask is worn to reduce the risk of spread FROM you to others. It provides very little protection to you FROM others.


Okay ..... so if I am an* infected *subway passenger and I am packed into a subway car like sardines,
it is an unhealthy situation for anybody within 6 feet of me?

This fact is what is going to bring the North American economy to it's knees.

People are not going to jump onto a packed subway car.

You might convince me to jump onto a subway car which was 50% capacity.

For a city, that fact is unsubstainable.

Nevermind what the stock markets are telling you ....... I think that City Living is now a bankrupt lifestyle and will continue to be until they can provide a more "Safe" method of travel for the masses.


----------



## m3s

calm said:


> Nevermind what the stock markets are telling you .......


The issue is healthcare systems being overwhelmed if everyone needs it at the same time. The object is to "flatten the curve" so that healthcare demand is spread over a manageable amount of time

Sad reality is most of those dying were not huge contributors to the economic system.


----------



## Longtimeago

m3s said:


> The issue is healthcare systems being overwhelmed if everyone needs it at the same time. The object is to "flatten the curve" so that healthcare demand is spread over a manageable amount of time
> 
> Sad reality is most of those dying were not huge contributors to the economic system.


Most of those dying WERE huge contributors to the economic system. They made the world you got to grow up in m3s.

This 'discard the old, they're no longer productive' attitude really annoys me. The world any generation lives in is an inheritance from the generation before them.


----------



## m3s

I'm just stating the sad reality is the economic system will not come to a screeching halt forever because elderly with underlying health conditions die

Most of those infected on the USS Roosevelt had no signs or symptoms and 1 died out of 1273. Less than .1% of a young/healthy population


----------



## calm

If I knew that anti-bodies had you done and over this virus trip I could accept what you say.

I have seen no proof that once you are infected and survive (antibodies) then you are Okay.

We could be getting hit all day and every day. Maybe the strain of the virus becomes more virulent in the future.

I do not think Public Transit will be operating at full capacity for a long long time.

People can not drive to work in a city because it would be gridlock.

If I knew that once you contracted the virus and became positive and survived ..... that you had some sort of perfect protection against getting hit with the virus again ..... I would leap into a subway car wearing no mask at all and breathe in the toxic air to the very bottom of my lungs.

Until then, I am gonna sit back.


----------



## bgc_fan

doctrine said:


> How can you have a second wave when the first wave hasn't finished?
> 
> Look at California and Florida. They never had a drop. Just a slow steady increase. Maybe that's not a bad thing. These are states with huge populations and many large cities.
> 
> What is interesting is that the death rate has dropped quite a bit. It is starting to reflect how many cases were not counted over the last few months. More are being found. So what is increasing faster - actual infection rates, or rates of discovery? It's not that easy to say.
> 
> Combine that with a false-positive rate that is up to 20%, and the higher cases now may just be because there is more testing and more false positives.


I'm going to consider the second wave when there is a large spike in cases that threatens to overwhelm the health care system. 

A slow and steady increase is manageable as long as the health care capacity can accommodate.

Testing is always going to be an issue. I can't find the source now, but I recall that there was some question about validity of the numbers coming from certain states. Basically, there are some states that have had a sudden uptick in deaths due to influenza and other causes when compared to historical numbers. You can make the assumption that if they're dead, no point in testing, and since they're not tested, then they aren't counted in the coronavirus count.


----------



## calm

m3s said:


> I'm just stating the sad reality is the economic system will not come to a screeching halt forever because elderly with underlying health conditions die
> 
> Most of those infected on the USS Roosevelt had no signs or symptoms and 1 died out of 1273. Less than .1% of a young/healthy population


Distribution of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Canada as of June 11, 2020, by age group








Canada: COVID-19 cases by age | Statista


As of July 8, 2022, Canadians aged 20 to 29 years accounted for around 19 percent of COVID-19 cases in Canada, the largest share of all age groups.




www.statista.com


----------



## calm

bgc_fan said:


> I can't find the source now, but I recall that there was some question about validity of the numbers coming from certain states.


I think it was Florida. 
A citizen began her own data collection website.




__





Experience







experience.arcgis.com


----------



## sags

Hospitalizations are the main concern regarding healthcare capacity, and 50% of hospitalizations are middle aged people.

Older people are more likely to die from COVID, but many young people survived after becoming very ill and are suffering long term health consequences.


----------



## calm

Does anybody here think that cities can go back to sardine like conditions on public transit until a vaccination or treatment is available?

(Cities with a population nearing 2 million.)


----------



## james4beach

calm said:


> Does anybody here think that cities can go back to sardine like conditions on public transit until a vaccination or treatment is available?


I certainly wouldn't cram myself into public transit, but this also does not mean the end of cities.

For example I am in the process (right now) of moving into the downtown core of a big city. I can simply walk everywhere I need, including offices (when these open up again). No public transit needed.


----------



## calm

james4beach said:


> I certainly wouldn't cram myself into public transit, but this also does not mean the end of cities.
> 
> For example I am in the process (right now) of moving into the downtown core of a big city. I can simply walk everywhere I need, including offices (when these open up again). No public transit needed.


I live in a city. I gotta show up for work at a car plant.
I refuse to ride a subway which is packed like sardines.
How do I get to work?

If we reduce the amount of passengers allowed on a subway car, that means only half the workforce can show up at the car plant today.

I am quite convinced that money is going to rush out of cities and move to smaller communities where public transit is not so intensely travelled.

This is the end of cities. This is the collapse of American Empire.


----------



## james4beach

calm said:


> This is the end of cities. This is the collapse of American Empire.


America is already the land of suburban sprawl. If suburban sprawl and smaller communities are the future of the economy, then the US is already there.

But I don't think it's the end of cities either. This virus outbreak is a relatively short term thing, and I think cities will remain the hubs and service centers for human civilizations, and centers of wealth, as they have been for about 8,000 years to 11,000 years.

Or do you think COVID-19 is such a big deal that it will kill a 10,000 year trend in human civilization?

I don't. I think it's an acute situation / short term nuisance.


----------



## calm

james4beach said:


> This virus outbreak is a relatively short term thing,


I am thinking maybe a city of 2 million people.
Most cities have concentrations of workers at the waterfront, or maybe like Toronto, working around the Young/Dundas/Bloor, or the Bathurst and Lawrence area

Poor People are travelling from Brampton to work downtown.

How are they going to get there?








TTC Kipling Station


The Toronto Transit Commission is the quick, convenient and safe way to get around Toronto. The subway system is linked with buses and streetcars to get you around Toronto on one fare, provided it's a one-way trip with no stopovers. You can travel on the TTC every day.




www.ttc.ca


----------



## james4beach

calm said:


> I live in a city. I gotta show up for work at a car plant.
> I refuse to ride a subway which is packed like sardines.
> How do I get to work?


I agree that this is a big problem. Maybe the companies (perhaps with government funding) can establish shuttle services, basically their own buses to pick up people.

This is what large tech companies like Google and Microsoft have been doing for many years, including in Canada.

Although you'd still be in a shared vehicle, they are at least coworkers, which would be much safer than mixing into public transit with the general public. On the subways for example you have healthcare and hospital workers, and I wouldn't want to get anywhere near them.

The company's own shuttle or bus service however only carries employees, which you'll be working alongside anyway.


----------



## calm

james4beach said:


> I agree that this is a big problem. Maybe the companies (perhaps with government funding) can establish shuttle services, basically their own buses to pick up people.
> 
> This is what large tech companies like Google and Microsoft have been doing for many years, including in Canada.
> 
> Although you'd still be in a shared vehicle, they are at least coworkers, which would be much safer than mixing into public transit with the general public. On the subways for example you have healthcare and hospital workers, and I wouldn't want to get anywhere near them.
> 
> The company's own shuttle or bus service however only carries employees, which you'll be working alongside anyway.


Exactly ......

The cost of planning a subway and systems "revamp" to accomodate this epidemic is huge. Too Huge.

Cities can not afford this and are not equipped. I think the cost is almost prohibitive.

Nobody is just gonna gleefully jump into a sardine like subway car unless it is at least 50% empty.

I am thinking that people are going to abandon subway travel to the downtown of any city if possible.

Cities have been destroyed overnight with this virus. No Vaccination for at least a year.

I think that real money is walking away from cities.

I don't think downtown cities can survive economically with only 50% (fewer seat) Subway Service.


----------



## james4beach

calm said:


> Exactly ......
> 
> The cost of planning a subway and systems "revamp" to accomodate this epidemic is huge. Too Huge.
> 
> Cities can not afford this and are not equipped. I think the cost is almost prohibitive.


But this is a short term problem. The disease outbreak has a limited lifetime and public transit will be back to normal in 1-2 years.


----------



## calm

Downtown is bankrupt!

How many more trillions do you think the Ruling Class can continue shaking the Money Tree at the Federal Resereve?

I would think that the Ruling Class are going to need a trillion dollars per month just to pay people as they are at the moment. Probably another trillion per month for unseen circumstances.

That is a total of 12 trillion dollars which gets America to December.

How long do you think the world is going to continue the "Admiration" towards the Greenback?

Do you think that the world is not going to beg China to introduce a new world gold backed currency? China would enjoy huge sense of pride doing this. Especially if America keeps bad-mouthing them.


----------



## Longtimeago

m3s said:


> I'm just stating the sad reality is the economic system will not come to a screeching halt forever because elderly with underlying health conditions die
> 
> Most of those infected on the USS Roosevelt had no signs or symptoms and 1 died out of 1273. Less than .1% of a young/healthy population


We hear little about the outcomes beyond 'dead or alive' m3s. While the percentage that die may be low in a given age group, what other lasting effects may they have to deal with? Neurological and Psychological in your Roosevelt example? There are not just physical after affects such as ongoing lung, heart and kidney problems.

Nor do we hear much about how long it takes to recover once you are infected. This virus is not like the common flu in that you get sick and after a few days or a week, you are back to near 100%. Even in milder cases, this virus can debilitate a young person for up to 2 months. Who then is there to work in the economy if a significant percentage of the population is always off work for 2 months at a time? Can a business survive with having those kinds of gaps in their employees each and every day?

It is simple to say that if it is only the elderly that are not available to work whether dead or not but that is not the case. Allowed to run its course to the degree that the Reproduction Rate remains above 1.0, it will mean that many younger people will be unavailable to work as well.

Read this first hand account of a fit 42 year old.








‘I underestimated this virus’: Vancouver nurse on recovering from COVID-19 | Globalnews.ca


After being sedated and intubated for a week, a Vancouver nurse is talking about how even she underestimated the severity of COVID-19.




globalnews.ca





I think you are taking too simplistic a view of how the virus can impact the 'non-elderly' and how that in turn can impact the economy.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Hospitalizations are the main concern regarding healthcare capacity, and 50% of hospitalizations are middle aged people.
> 
> Older people are more likely to die from COVID, but many young people survived after becoming very ill and are suffering long term health consequences.


Yes, that is something I don't think many people realize sags. Dying isn't the only significantly bad outcome that can happen to those who contract the virus. The assumption for many seems to be that if you get a 'mild' case and are under 50, it's back to work next week. That's not necessarily the reality.


----------



## sags

This is a sad reality for some.......









Nick Cordero's Lung CT Scan Is 'Not Pretty' But a Transplant 'Isn't on the Table,' Says His Wife


"We did get a CT scan on his lungs back. It isn't the prettiest, unfortunately," Nick Cordero's wife, Amanda Kloots, said in an update




people.com


----------



## calm

How many people do you think should be allowed to stand on this TTC platform at one time?

TTC
Bloor - Yonge Statopm








TTC Bloor-Yonge Station


The Toronto Transit Commission is the quick, convenient and safe way to get around Toronto. The subway system is linked with buses and streetcars to get you around Toronto on one fare, provided it's a one-way trip with no stopovers. You can travel on the TTC every day.




www.ttc.ca





To have a 75% chance of protection I need what cost kind/type/manufacturer of a mask?

How much distancing do we want to enjoy in order to feel safe?

That would indicate just how empty downtown is going to be for the next 6 months at least.

Would we not want the same type of distancing that we insist upon for stores and sports arenas?

I am thinking there will be 40 percent less pedestrian traffic within downtown areas.

This is main artery of Canada's largest city.

This is the financial capital of Canada.

These are the facts for every major city in North America.

A city with a 20% unemployment rate and perhaps higher. A gigantic increase in Homelessness.

This is the collapse of the American Empire.


----------



## Money172375

family member‘s former colleague had covid. Early 50s. 50+ days in hospital. Was on a ventilator. Now at home. Can’t walk 20 feet without losing his breath. Was otherwise healthy before.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> family member‘s former colleague had covid. Early 50s. 50+ days in hospital. Was on a ventilator. Now at home. Can’t walk 20 feet without losing his breath. Was otherwise healthy before.


That's really bad, sorry to hear that. And only early 50s.


----------



## james4beach

calm said:


> How many people do you think should be allowed to stand on this TTC platform at one time?
> . . .
> That would indicate just how empty downtown is going to be for the next 6 months at least.


I lived in downtown Toronto for a few years and what I noticed is that the actual population of downtown Toronto is not as large as you might think. Most of the bodies you see in Toronto are commuters coming from the suburbs and outskirts.

As a result, when the commuters stay at home (which I saw at various points in time) the city is really not too crowded at all.

City life itself is pretty good, and is even better when the suburban visitors stay home!


----------



## calm

When people move through the TTC hubs, they are walking quickly with some physical exertion. Sometimes panting for breath.

Are the over crowded street cars or subway cars just gonna disappear without consequence?

No more passengers hanging onto the high reach rungs in the center isle.

I think that "distancing" is going to have street cars and subway cars operating with only 60% seat occupancy.

City Life is going to move very slowly ..... Slower Life means slower retail and service sales taking place in the city core.

That means that there are 40 percent fewer people walking around or reporting for work down town.

Are you going to hesitate travelling a couple of subway stops to have Brunch with somebody?

Lining up at a bus stop is going to be like a line up at a bank? (6' distance)

Is the TCC going to wrap the bus driver in a Canadian Flag for martyrdom and add a plexi-glass shield and then tell the passengers not to worry about the virus?

No ,more cash ticket sales?

Stand ten feet from the driver when asking him about catching the next bus?

I think they will need to make the TCC Free of Charge just to have less need for interaction with drivers and ticket agents.


----------



## andrewf

Much of the amenities you see downtown are only possible because of all the commuters.


----------



## Money172375

Looks like cases in Alberta are on their way up again....









50 additional cases of COVID-19 in Alberta Sunday, active numbers rising | Globalnews.ca


Alberta Health announced 50 additional cases of COVID-19 in the province Sunday, with active cases in the province now at 422.




globalnews.ca





not sure the public can take another long lockdown if it comes to that again......


----------



## sags

This is what "recovered" from COVID means....

_COVID 19 is the worst disease process I’ve ever worked with in my 8 years as an ICU nurse. When they say “recovered” they don’t tell you that that means you may need a lung transplant. Or that you may come back after d/c with a massive heart attack or stroke bc COVID makes your blood thick as hell. Or that you may have to be on oxygen for the rest of your life. COVID is designed to kill. It is a highly intelligent virus and it attacks everything. We will run out of resources if we don’t continue to flatten the curve. I’m exhausted. 

....more comments at this link._



https://twitter.com/sheriantoinette


----------



## sags

Did Canada help China create the COVID virus ?

_"We have a researcher who was removed by the RCMP from the highest security laboratory that Canada has for reasons that government is unwilling to disclose. The intelligence remains secret. But what we know is that before she was removed, she sent one of the deadliest viruses on Earth, and multiple varieties of it to maximize the genetic diversity and maximize what experimenters in China could do with it, to a laboratory in China that does dangerous gain of function experiments. And that has links to the Chinese military." 



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/canadian-scientist-sent-deadly-viruses-to-wuhan-lab-months-before-rcmp-asked-to-investigate-1.5609582


_


----------



## calm

Holy Jeeze! With those horror stories that Sags mentioned, I may never look at a subway the same again.

You almost need to be suicidal if you jump into a packed subway car.

That is pretty tense.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Did Canada help China create the COVID virus ?
> 
> _"We have a researcher who was removed by the RCMP from the highest security laboratory that Canada has for reasons that government is unwilling to disclose. The intelligence remains secret. But what we know is that before she was removed, she sent one of the deadliest viruses on Earth, and multiple varieties of it to maximize the genetic diversity and maximize what experimenters in China could do with it, to a laboratory in China that does dangerous gain of function experiments. And that has links to the Chinese military."
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/canadian-scientist-sent-deadly-viruses-to-wuhan-lab-months-before-rcmp-asked-to-investigate-1.5609582
> 
> 
> _


 ...just as simple as ordering from Alibaba, only it's free in this case from the government of Canada.


----------



## Beaver101

calm said:


> When people move through the TTC hubs, they are walking quickly with some physical exertion. Sometimes panting for breath.
> 
> Are the over crowded street cars or subway cars just gonna disappear without consequence?
> 
> No more passengers hanging onto the high reach rungs in the center isle.
> 
> I think that "distancing" is going to have street cars and subway cars operating with only 60% seat occupancy.
> 
> City Life is going to move very slowly ..... Slower Life means slower retail and service sales taking place in the city core.
> 
> That means that there are 40 percent fewer people walking around or reporting for work down town.
> 
> Are you going to hesitate travelling a couple of subway stops to have Brunch with somebody?
> 
> Lining up at a bus stop is going to be like a line up at a bank? (6' distance)
> 
> Is the TCC going to wrap the bus driver in a Canadian Flag for martyrdom and add a plexi-glass shield and then tell the passengers not to worry about the virus?
> 
> No ,more cash ticket sales?
> 
> Stand ten feet from the driver when asking him about catching the next bus?
> 
> *I think they will need to make the TCC Free of Charge just to have less need for interaction with drivers and ticket agents.*


 ... don't think so according to our mayor Tory. He has nothing up his sleeve in the foreseable future to help with the city's finances except to nose-bleed property owners. 

Besides, the TTC is all unionized and they (booth ticket collectors) can verbally abuse riders without so much as a lecture, let alone having their salaries reduced. Maybe an Air Canada mass layoff moment might help the TTC at this point in time.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> I lived in downtown Toronto for a few years and what I noticed is that the actual population of downtown Toronto is not as large as you might think. *Most of the bodies you see in Toronto are commuters coming from the suburbs and outskirts.*
> 
> As a result, when the commuters stay at home (which I saw at various points in time) the city is really not too crowded at all.
> 
> City life itself is pretty good, and is even better *when the suburban visitors stay home!*


 ... . And suburban visitors are NOT tourists either.


----------



## sags

calm said:


> Holy Jeeze! With those horror stories that Sags mentioned, I may never look at a subway the same again.
> 
> You almost need to be suicidal if you jump into a packed subway car.
> 
> That is pretty tense.


Yea, I kind of had the idea that "recovered" meant people came out feeling good and showing no symptoms or after effects.

Whenever I see the recovered stat now, I will wonder how many of them were left with serious health problems.


----------



## calm

I think the downtown core of every city within North America is bankrupt.
All stores and whatever in 3 block area of Yonge Street are going to lose 40% of walk-in business because TTC is going to reduce passenger seats by 40%.
Rent costs and leases of retail space is going to collapse.
Vacancy rates are going to soar.
If you used to leave home an hour before work, you will need to leave home 2 hours before work because of having to negotiate travelling a possible infected system,
For many years my lawyer and accountant had offices in the downtown core.
I know that I will not be going to their offices anymore.
I am choosing a lawyer and accountant closer to home where I don't need to travel a crowded public transit system.
How many clients/customers are going to be allowed onto an elevator at the many office towers downtown? How many clients to be allowed to sit in the reception areas of any office situated in a tower?

Maybe we are all going to be asked to become somewhat like suicidal Kamikaze pilots and continue our lives and subway travels and pretend that the virus menace is under control?

At the moment, I am not suicidal, so I am not gonna travel the TCC to downtown Toronto.

Things could change if the government cuts social programs. I might then be piss poor and desperate to jump on a crowded subway car.

The point I keep making is that if the downtown core of every major city in North America is bankrupt, then obviously the American Empire is collapsing around us.

There are many people thinking like I am.

On January 17, I placed a 30 thousand dollar bet against America's survival as an "Economic" superpower on the world stage. (It will always be a "Military" superpower.)

I purchased 13 ounces of physical gold at the TD bank and it has increased 400 bucks per ounce in less than 150 days. A 30 thousand dollar gold investment earning a thousand per month in increasing value. With such an increase in value, it is not only me betting against America.

The Canadian dollar is down 8 cents since January 17.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I don't think you need to go into your lawyer or accountant's office anymore, even you're located in Timbuktooth (sic) land given electronic signatures are accepted and (almost) everyone on this board welcomes everything being done electronically ... just look at the banks. Win-win and win somemore ($$$$) they say/save.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ^ I don't think you need to go into your lawyer or accountant's office anymore, even you're located in Timbuktooth (sic) land given electronic signatures are accepted and (almost) everyone on this board welcomes everything being done electronically ... just look at the banks. Win-win and win somemore ($$$$) they say/save.


In fairness, not everyone accepts electronic signatures, particularly when it comes to financial matters. 
But that's what Purolator and courier services are for.


----------



## sags

They can put you in prison now and you never enter a courtroom.

The hearings are online, and the judge can play solitaire while he listens to your lawyer. He already knows you are guilty because the police arrested you after all.

Maybe they could have group trials to save time and money.


----------



## calm

This Covid-19 Virus can now be used as an economic weapon against any country in the universe,

It can now be placed into a petri dish and then spread/wiped on the railings of any escalater in the uiniverse. Within 2 weeks the country would be hit with a new urgent need for lock down and resulting in huge economic loses.

I don't think the source of the virus placement could be determined.

Weaponizing this Covid-19 virus could almost be as efficient with destroying a country as a nuclear weapon.


----------



## bgc_fan

Looks like there is a cheap drug candidate for those who are on ventilators or seriously ill. Life-saving coronavirus drug 'major breakthrough'

List of some of the treatments being trialed: https://www.recoverytrial.net/


----------



## calm

Oh! I don;t doubt that there will be control of this virus.

And I am just reviewing just how vulnerable our cities are.

I don't think that I want to be investing in the downtown core of any city or anywhere that my employees require public transit.
I want insurance to save me from bankruptcy via the next attack in my city.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> In fairness, not everyone accepts electronic signatures, particularly when it comes to financial matters.
> But that's what Purolator and courier services are for.


 ... and who's going to pay for the courier services? Not the banks I don't think so ... they can't even afford to pay for the postage stamps (in the name of saving trees!). And I don't think your lawyer would either for your disbursements. Accountants? Not sure about that.

Of course, not "everyone" accepts electronic signatures and if you do you're considered an old foggie (even that's false).


----------



## Longtimeago

How we stack up can be seen here:








Coronavirus stats worldwide: Compare Canada and other key nations


Visit CTVNews.ca for an interactive look at the COVID-19 outbreak in key countries.




www.ctvnews.ca





Of particular note are New Zealand and Sweden. NZ adopted very strict measures very quickly while Sweden did the opposite. The results speak for themselves.

That leads me to thinking about easing up and how that should be handled. Slowly and carefully is the way to do it but the pressure to open more up continues to mount.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... and who's going to pay for the courier services? Not the banks I don't think so ... they can't even afford to pay for the postage stamps (in the name of saving trees!). And I don't think your lawyer would either for your disbursements. Accountants? Not sure about that.
> 
> Of course, not "everyone" accepts electronic signatures and if you do you're considered an old foggie (even that's false).


It would be the customer, as always who foots the bill. As for not accepting electronic signatures, I'm sure there are some lawyers and some government agencies who don't.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> It would be the customer, as always who foots the bill. As for not accepting electronic signatures, I'm sure there are some lawyers and some government agencies who don't.


 ... I'm not sure government agencies uses courier services ... afterall, we still have crown corp CPost. As said I agree "some" (perhaps a fewer now a days?) lawyers won't accept electronic signatures and definitely will not absorb the courier services which mean the client is on the hook with no choice.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> Looks like there is a cheap drug candidate for those who are on ventilators or seriously ill. Life-saving coronavirus drug 'major breakthrough'
> 
> List of some of the treatments being trialed: Welcome — RECOVERY Trial


 ... that's good news. Wish effective treatment discovery for centuries-old cancer was just as quick ...


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... that's good news. Wish effective treatment discovery for centuries-old cancer was just as quick ...


In fairness, the term cancer is a collection of similar ailments, but all have differing causes. That makes is a bit more difficult to isolate. There are obviously treatments that work to various degrees, to certain ones, but no silver bullet.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> In fairness, the term cancer is a collection of similar ailments, but all have differing causes. That makes is a bit more difficult to isolate. There are obviously treatments that work to various degrees, to certain ones, but no silver bullet.


 ... it could be. But I have yet to read any type of treatment to "eradicate" the cancer, let alone a vaccine....* to be developed or even being developed at lightening speed.* And yet, cancer is the no. #1 or 2 (depending who you ask) killer in the world. Agree no silver bullet. Maybe a sure cure will be possible for cancer in another century provided mankind don't get wiped out by ... viruses or an asteroid.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... it could be. But I have yet to read any type of treatment to "eradicate" the cancer, let alone a vaccine....* to be developed or even being developed at lightening speed.* And yet, cancer is the no. #1 or 2 (depending who you ask) killer in the world. Agree no silver bullet. Maybe a sure cure will be possible for cancer in another century provided mankind don't get wiped out by ... viruses or an asteroid.


I think part of the issue is that there is a significant genetic component to susceptibility to cancer as we're talking about a disease that usually develops due to genetic cell damage, causing uncontrolled cellular growth. Unless there is effective gene therapy development, it's probably not going to happen any time soon. As it is, most treatments try to deal with the symptoms (get rid of the cancerous cells/growth), but then that usually only leads to remission, and years down the road it can resurface.


----------



## calm

I have noticed that with Cancer or Anti-Semitism, people only talk about finding the cure, not the cause.


----------



## Money172375

Is that a 2nd wave in the US or a bumpy first wave?


----------



## calm

Does anybody know when a person becomes infected and survives, are they immune?

You would think that if we acquire anti-bodies they would be screaming that from roof tops every day and all day.

All I hear is "Maybe". After this length of time it is just a "Maybe" we acquire anti-bodies?
Something very fishy with not knowing about anti-bodies as a certainty.

What if you just get a mild infection, what happens if you are infected again? Is the second time around mean identical mild reactions or does it hit you worse the second time around?


----------



## sags

They don't really know.

They don't know if some people acquire enough antibodies, or if they are useful if the virus mutates. They also don't know how long it will last.

We don't even have immunity from the seasonal flu, so it is doubtful there will be lifetime immunity for COVID.


----------



## sags

What I find most concerning is the virus is mutating and is now affecting younger people more severely.

Scientists say the virus changed as it spread through different countries, and that is why the symptoms weren't the same everywhere.

There are already quite a number of variations for this virus.


----------



## calm

without immunity (anti-bodies) I am beginning to think that our society and all the toys that come with it are toast !

There is no way that a country would just sit back and watch this economic devastation happening without doing the utmost to stem the bleeding. I believe that all governments know that they are powerless against Covid-19.

All we got is different levels of goverment giving political excuses and not medical or scientific excuses for not getting contol.

Obviously, our leaders have "Zero" to offer except platitudes of hope.

I am starting to think that the only tool that governments can offer is a face mask.

Will the face mask alone allow 45 or 50 million people back to work or are we stuck with 50 million unemployed until a vaccine shows up?

I am thinking that for our economy to "Normalize" it needs more than a face mask.

They are selling or using propaganda to explain that things are "Improving" because 10 people can eat in a cafe now and that haircuts are Okay now too.

Nothing is improving. It is just that they are allowing more recess time and calling it progress or an improvement.

I don't think that our North American society can handle 50 million unemployed for a year or two without revolution in the air.

Am I wrong or too pessimistic?

Any evidence to the contrary?


----------



## bgc_fan

It looks like we may have undercounted the amount of COVID 19 deaths earlier in the year. There had been higher than average deaths nationally that are probably attributed to COVID. 


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/excess-deaths-covid-1.5619723


----------



## Prairie Guy

calm said:


> Am I wrong or too pessimistic?
> 
> Any evidence to the contrary?


The evidence shows that the fatality rate for healthy people under 50 is very low, lower than the flu in some cases. Shutting down the entire economy is the wrong approach when only the vulnerable need to be protected.

That should be plainly obvious but the media and politicians are mostly ignoring that. The politicians love their increased power and the media likes the headlines. And some people are so scared that they drive alone in their car wearing a mask or are too scared to go out in public.


----------



## calm

Prairie Guy said:


> The evidence shows that the fatality rate for healthy people under 50 is very low,


.
Is there any evidence to show that opening up the economy completely will not create a huge amount of Covid-19 cases?
How are our medical facilities going to handle such a huge increase?
It is my understanding that the reason the economy was shut down was to control the infection to a point where ICU units in hospitals can handle that amount of patients.
The continual shutdown is prevent overflow at ICU's.

Is there any proof that if the economy was completely opened up today that the hospital ICU can continue to function?

I don't really care how old people are who die from Covid-19. It is still "Death" of a mother a father or a friend of somebody.

Another issue I have is that governments want to hire private companies to carry out the testing and tracing programs. Hiring private companies would mean that the information is not public information.

I suspect that governments are doing this so that when they tell the public what progress is being made, the paperwork to prove this ...... the data collected will be private and not up for public review or inspection. New York has hired Bloomberg.


----------



## andrewf

How many would be killed by not having access to hospitals for other problems because they are jammed with COVID cases?


----------



## Prairie Guy

calm said:


> .
> Is there any evidence to show that opening up the economy completely will not create a huge amount of Covid-19 cases?
> How are our medical facilities going to handle such a huge increase?
> It is my understanding that the reason the economy was shut down was to control the infection to a point where ICU units in hospitals can handle that amount of patients.
> The continual shutdown is prevent overflow at ICU's.


I already explained that. Due to the very low infection rate for people under 50 that's not likely to happen. Why can't you just do the math? Is it too hard?


----------



## andrewf

Prairie Guy said:


> I already explained that. Due to the very low infection rate for people under 50 that's not likely to happen. Why can't you just do the math? Is it too hard?


People over 50 also occupy beds, unless you're suggesting we toss them directly into the grave.


----------



## calm

andrewf said:


> People over 50 also occupy beds, unless you're suggesting we toss them directly into the grave.


I thought that Prairie was saying that most people just get sick and not die.
Just more death with people over 50. (If people over 50 just stayed home, problem solved.)

But I think it was somewhere in this thread that somebody mentioned instances where some patients had huge medical problems for the rest of your life even if you do survive.


----------



## Plugging Along

calm said:


> .
> Is there any evidence to show that opening up the economy completely will not create a huge amount of Covid-19 cases?
> How are our medical facilities going to handle such a huge increase?
> It is my understanding that the reason the economy was shut down was to control the infection to a point where ICU units in hospitals can handle that amount of patients.
> The continual shutdown is prevent overflow at ICU's.
> 
> Is there any proof that if the economy was completely opened up today that the hospital ICU can continue to function?
> 
> I don't really care how old people are who die from Covid-19. It is still "Death" of a mother a father or a friend of somebody.
> 
> Another issue I have is that governments want to hire private companies to carry out the testing and tracing programs. Hiring private companies would mean that the information is not public information.
> 
> I suspect that governments are doing this so that when they tell the public what progress is being made, the paperwork to prove this ...... the data collected will be private and not up for public review or inspection. New York has hired Bloomberg.


I can't speak for other provinces, but in ours is opening in stages. It's not going to be from locked down to complete opening. It's based on key metrics. One of them is the number hospital and ICU bed capacity. While under the threashold (>50%), then things will be able to open up. If it jumps or creeps past that, then they will have to increase restrictions. It's a constant balance.

One of the ways to monitor COVID is the ability to do tracing. That is one of the factors in determining restrictions. That was a key factor in shutting down our schools when they did, which was when the first cases of untraceable community spread was detected. That's one of the reasons that the tracing apps are so important. My province put out a tracing app. I have it on though I highly value my privacy because I know that the ability to reduce spread comes from tracing. The faster you can identify that someone you are in contact with has been infected the better the chance of stopping the spread. 

Hopefully, people are smart enough to recognize when the number start to increase, they need to start bringing in restrictions quickly to prevent a complete shut down. 



Prairie Guy said:


> I already explained that. Due to the very low infection rate for people under 50 that's not likely to happen. Why can't you just do the math? Is it too hard?


The challenge is now, the larger group that is getting infected is the under 35 crowd.


----------



## sags

I don't take the tracking seriously, since it involves a couple of weeks worth of contacts.

People can list a few people they were around, but what about all the people who they don't even know ?

So, I was with my wife, grandson, and went to a few grocery stores and Walmart. Then I was at the gas station, doctor's office, and then I went to the dollar store and then..........

Tracking helps when someone in a large gathering gets sick and they can notify everyone else who attended (a church service for example) but for everyday life.....not so good.


----------



## calm

I thought that NSA could track people within 3 feet by tracking a cell phone tower.
Why would we need some other method?
I understand that NSA can track you day by day from cell phone tower hits.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Plugging Along said:


> The challenge is now, the larger group that is getting infected is the under 35 crowd.


Getting infected and being sick enough to require hospitalization are two entirely different things. The under 35 crowd are not and never have overwhelmed the hospitals. There is no challenge to overcome.


----------



## Money172375

What’s the reason for the seemingly higher “deaths per population” in countries and states that faced the virus earlier. Ex. Most of europe, NY state?

is treatment getting better now? Better testing is slowing down transmission? Were citizens exposed to higher viral loads before social distancing took effect? Are the “lower death” areas just lagging? Age related?


----------



## Prairie Guy

Money172375 said:


> What’s the reason for the seemingly higher “deaths per population” in countries and states that faced the virus earlier. Ex. Most of europe, NY state?


In NY they forced Covid positive seniors back to nursing homes where they infected entire buildings.


----------



## Money172375

Just came across this.....seems like good analysis....



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic-countries-response-1.5617898


----------



## calm

I listened to some interview this morning and the guy said that all the young people who were infected and survived actually have huge damage to the lungs. It is seen by X-ray and is going to worsen over time.


----------



## andrewf

Deaths lag infections (it could take 2 weeks+ for someone infected to die). I think the detection rate is also higher now that testing has ramped up (death rates seem higher in earlier infection areas due to under-diagnosing number of cases and recoveries).


----------



## sags

We are in a pickle......

The expert of experts, who consults with all the top experts like Tony Fauci all the time came on CNN and says......

None of the "miracle" drugs work. Among the group of possible vaccines........NONE of them will offer total immunity.

The earliest vaccine in the process will start Clinical III studies in the fall. It will take at least 12 months to get the results, and it is the weakest candidate vaccine.

He said that Dr. Fauci and others are aware of the facts but the politics require they offer a bit of "hope" to the public, even if the hope is near non-existent.

He said none of the vaccines will be totally protective and people will have to continue wearing a mask and social distancing.

He is located in Texas, and says the State opened up too early and now the emergency rooms and ICU are at capacity and will be overflowing soon.

Texas is facing a NYC type of outbreak.

My thoughts are that governments are going to be supporting people for a long time. The only solution is for them to collectively pretend the money doesn't exist. Just send out cheques and don't keep track of the cost. It will be a lie, but it won't be the first time people were lied to and nobody will care because they are all in the same leaky canoe.

Confidence is all that drives the global financial system, so confidence is all that is required to keep it afloat.

We are stocking up again on supplies because who knows what is going to happen.


----------



## calm

I think that everybody needs to watch when subway capacity is increasing.
I think that "Normal" is when capacity is at least 80%. Watch the subway schedule and capacity statistics. This would apply to all major cities in North America.

America will survive economically if no other competing world currency becomes an alternative.

BitCoin is not gonna save anybody. Most will not even have access to websites.
The alternative currency would need to be backed by Gold and supported by both China and Russia,

This guy might be the scientist which you mentioned.

Peter Hotez
From Wikipedia








Peter Hotez - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## sags

Yea that is the guy they interviewed. Part of his interview is here.









Why expert is cautious about Covid-19 vaccine trial results - CNN Video


Dr. Peter Hotez says he is waiting to call Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine phase 1 trial results a breakthrough until more testing data is released.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Longtimeago

I wish our news media would go to the bother of trying to put some things in perspective when talking about the virus. Raw numbers are meaningless generally speaking and yet that is all they ever seem to tell us.

For example, they tell us Florida had 5,000 new cases in one day. Ontario had say 200. How then do we compare that to try and understand what it really means? Are we supposed to think, 'oh wow, they are doing 25 times worse than we are.' It isn't that simple. Ontario has roughly 14 million population while Florida has over 21 million. That means if Ontario has 200 cases then to be doing as well, Florida could have 300 cases. Or if Florida has 5,000 cases, to be doing as badly, Ontario would have to have 3,333 cases. Those are COMPARABLE numbers that have some meaning and tell you something. Raw numbers tell us nothing that is comparable.

Canada has had a total of 102,000 cases. The USA has 10 times our population, so a comparable number for them would be 1 million cases. They have had 2.47 million cases. So they are doing overall, 2.5 times worse than we are. you can't really say they are ONLY doing 2.5 times worse, as if it weren't all that bad but it gives you a real comparison which 102,000 vs. 2.47 million does not give you unless you do the math to put those raw numbers in perspective somehow relative to each other.

I just wish our media would take 2 minutes to do that when they report on ANY area. The other way to do it is in 'per capita' numbers.


----------



## calm

The media and governments are hell bent on keeping everybody confused.
I don't think the Ruling Class want us realizing just how horrible a situation we find ourselves in.
They play with numbers. Meaningless numbers without any comparison.
50 states and 50 different reporting systems.
The Ruling Class do not want a "Central Command" because they are relying upon "Confusion".
The Ruling Class are using "Confusion" while stalling for time and a vaccine.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I wish our news media would go to the bother of trying to put some things in perspective when talking about the virus. Raw numbers are meaningless generally speaking and yet that is all they ever seem to tell us.
> 
> For example, they tell us Florida had 5,000 new cases in one day. Ontario had say 200. How then do we compare that to try and understand what it really means? Are we supposed to think, 'oh wow, they are doing 25 times worse than we are.' It isn't that simple. Ontario has roughly 14 million population while Florida has over 21 million. That means if Ontario has 200 cases then to be doing as well, Florida could have 300 cases. Or if Florida has 5,000 cases, to be doing as badly, Ontario would have to have 3,333 cases. Those are COMPARABLE numbers that have some meaning and tell you something. Raw numbers tell us nothing that is comparable.
> 
> Canada has had a total of 102,000 cases. The USA has 10 times our population, so a comparable number for them would be 1 million cases. They have had 2.47 million cases. So they are doing overall, 2.5 times worse than we are. you can't really say they are ONLY doing 2.5 times worse, as if it weren't all that bad but it gives you a real comparison which 102,000 vs. 2.47 million does not give you unless you do the math to put those raw numbers in perspective somehow relative to each other.
> 
> I just wish our media would take 2 minutes to do that when they report on ANY area. The other way to do it is in 'per capita' numbers.


While numbers for US vs Canada may be of interest to some I'd rather see more detailed information on the web for our local situation. Info I'd like to see is common exposure areas and were cases from community spread, known infected contact, travel related, etc. Also, I'd much rather see it from a gov site rather than media reported.


----------



## calm

No government can put a real scientific expert in TV-Land because he would need to explain the exact situation.
If an expert stood and gave the facts, I suspect millions of sucicides would take place.
Just think how many people jump in front of a TTC subway train every day in normal times. (They got body bags stored under the platform.)
Politicians take the stage to explain and are allowed to avoid precise information.
Then since the politician said very little, the media pundits all chirp up with "I Think" the politician meant to say this or is thinging this way.

One hour ago .... Limeridge Mall Ontario has a parking lot and it is full. I guess the stores or whatever is in that mall is normal.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> I wish our news media would go to the bother of trying to put some things in perspective when talking about the virus. Raw numbers are meaningless generally speaking and yet that is all they ever seem to tell us.
> 
> For example, they tell us Florida had 5,000 new cases in one day. Ontario had say 200. How then do we compare that to try and understand what it really means? Are we supposed to think, 'oh wow, they are doing 25 times worse than we are.' It isn't that simple. Ontario has roughly 14 million population while Florida has over 21 million. That means if Ontario has 200 cases then to be doing as well, Florida could have 300 cases. Or if Florida has 5,000 cases, to be doing as badly, Ontario would have to have 3,333 cases. Those are COMPARABLE numbers that have some meaning and tell you something. Raw numbers tell us nothing that is comparable.
> 
> Canada has had a total of 102,000 cases. The USA has 10 times our population, so a comparable number for them would be 1 million cases. They have had 2.47 million cases. So they are doing overall, 2.5 times worse than we are. you can't really say they are ONLY doing 2.5 times worse, as if it weren't all that bad but it gives you a real comparison which 102,000 vs. 2.47 million does not give you unless you do the math to put those raw numbers in perspective somehow relative to each other.
> 
> I just wish our media would take 2 minutes to do that when they report on ANY area. The other way to do it is in 'per capita' numbers.


I agree to some extent for context, but I’m still interested in how many “absolute” people have the disease vs.per capita. I think both are important.
while it’s expected beds, doctors, ppE are all planned for on a per capita basis, the absolute number also plays a part when you’re trying to source treatment needs.


our Local Health region has started to publish cases per 100,000 for each town, city, township etc. It’s helpful......we have about100 cases per 100,000. Our land area is quite large and we only have a population of 10,000.

the closest City to us is at about 50 cases per 100,000 with a population of 30,000. It’s geographically smaller so even though the case rate is half the amount....I ”feel” safer in my township.


----------



## calm

I watch CNN and MSNBC most of the time.
It has been a very long time since there has been any discussion of foreign policy.
Venezuela, Syria, Iraq never heard nothing.

It is just as though all the terrorists trying to strike America just disappeared overnight.

No talk about Hamas threatening to attack Israel if the West Bank is annexed by Israel.
Netanyahu said he is going ahead with annexation.


----------



## sags

They wanted to test all the employees at my wife's retirement home workplace. She refused because it is pointless.

They are allowing the residents to leave the building for up to 12 hours and come back in. 

Employees get tested today and a resident or employee can bring it in tonight.

What is the point ?


----------



## newfoundlander61

"Important information for Kingston, Ontario region regarding masks. Order is effective on Saturday, June 27 at 12:01 a.m. Any failure to comply with the enforcement of wearing masks in commercial establishments is an offence for which you may be liable, on conviction, to a fine up to $5,000 for every day or part of a day on which the offence occurs or continues."


----------



## calm

I just heard Pence say that everything was going great and that infections are fewer.
Then the media pulls up a map and shows the huge increase of infections.

This can not be an accident. It is all about confusion. 

Sort of like ........ If you do not hear a rumour by noon time, then start one.


----------



## Money172375

My daughter came home with a “Karen moment“ story. She went to Walmart with my wife. My daughter is 15. She was wearing a mask. She was in an aisle with another woman. Some guy walked into the aisle against the arrow on the ground. The woman gave the guy an earful, saying” we’re still social distancing”.

The guy left the aisle. The woman (not wearing a mask) comes right up to my daughter and whispers in her ear (something unintelligible). 

thank goodness I wasn’t there!


----------



## calm

My friend tells me that downtown Hamilton ,,,, all the parking lots at malls are about 80% full at 2:30 pm Friday afternoon. Payday for lots of people today the 26th.
Buses were about 30% full.
About 30 people in line to buy some pot.
Line ups at banks are huge.


----------



## calm

If there is no herd immunity,then I gotta ask about if people can catch the virus more than one time?
Does anybody know of any instance where a person became infected on several occaisions?


----------



## sags

They don't know. They don't know anything much. The virus has them all baffled.

It is a perfectly designed "killer virus" which makes me believe it was developed in the Wuhan lab just down the street from the "fresh market".

RCMP have been investigating the transfer of highly dangerous virus material from the top level lab in WInnipeg to Wuhan.

The lab in Wuhan takes viruses and experiments on making them more potent. They are a branch of the Chinese military.

The virus likely accidentally infected a researcher at the lab who then attended the fresh market and from there it spread.

Note that when China learned of the virus, they first tried to contain it and then locked everything right down. They knew what had happened.

The world knows where the virus came from, but they don't want to say and set off a global crisis or war.

Trump knows and is bursting to tell all....and he hints at it with "Kung Flu." and statements that China is "responsible".


----------



## sags

_"We have a researcher who was removed by the RCMP from the highest security laboratory that Canada has for reasons that government is unwilling to disclose. The intelligence remains secret. But what we know is that before she was removed, she sent one of the deadliest viruses on Earth, and multiple varieties of it to maximize the genetic diversity and maximize what experimenters in China could do with it, to a laboratory in China that does dangerous gain of function experiments. And that has links to the Chinese military." _



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/canadian-scientist-sent-deadly-viruses-to-wuhan-lab-months-before-rcmp-asked-to-investigate-1.5609582


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> I agree to some extent for context, but I’m still interested in how many “absolute” people have the disease vs.per capita. I think both are important.
> while it’s expected beds, doctors, ppE are all planned for on a per capita basis, the absolute number also plays a part when you’re trying to source treatment needs.
> 
> 
> our Local Health region has started to publish cases per 100,000 for each town, city, township etc. It’s helpful......we have about100 cases per 100,000. Our land area is quite large and we only have a population of 10,000.
> 
> the closest City to us is at about 50 cases per 100,000 with a population of 30,000. It’s geographically smaller so even though the case rate is half the amount....I ”feel” safer in my township.


That's really my point Money172375. Any number in isolation tells us very little. It is only when we put a number into some kind of context that we can assess what it means to us.

I disagree however with your assessment of how 'safe' you can feel based on the geographical size of the two areas you give in your example. Density is indeed a factor, the reality is that even in a low density area such as yours, people congregate in specific areas still. Your risk in say a supermarket is higher than the risk for someone in the same size supermarket with the lower case rate per capita, unless you could show that your supermarket has less customers in it than the other supermarket.

But how 'safe' you feel is about a 'feeling', not an empirical fact. So I understand why you might 'feel' safer, even though you really aren't. If you are in the vicinity of a number of people at one time, you are at higher risk where you are, that's what the numbers are actually telling you.

In other words, 'density' isn't necessarily about a geographic area, it is about the 'density' of people in your immediate area. ie. within 2 metres of you, not 2 kilometres.


----------



## calm

I am very surprised that a scientist does not know if you become infected and survive that you are scott free and not be subject to becoming infected again.

That question is most important.

It has been more than 6 months and 9,838,205 confirmed cases and 495, 020 global deaths ...... and this question can not be answered? Scientists don't know whether or not people can become infected more than one single time?

At this stage of the game I am thinking that the answer to this question is more important right now than the discovery of a vaccine.

There is something wrong with this story.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> I am very surprised that a scientist does not know if you become infected and survive that you are scott free and not be subject to becoming infected again.
> 
> That question is most important.
> 
> It has been more than 6 months and 9,838,205 confirmed cases and 495, 020 global deaths ...... and this question can not be answered?
> 
> There is something wrong with this story.


Use your noodle calm. How do you know if you cannot become re-infected? Answer, if you have had the virus, then knowingly been re-exposed to it and did not contract it again. 

Now, how long after the first infection would you say you should wait till you expose yourself a second time? If you did it say a week or two after you 'recovered' from the first infection, how do you know it isn't a 'flare up' of the first infection rather than a new infection? Answer, you don't so you will have to wait how long before exposing yourself and being sure it is a new infection? Answer, who knows. Malaria can 'flare up' for a person's entire life after they become infected.

Then, IF you are immune from a second infection, how long does that immunity last before you could become infected a second time? Answer, who knows. You can't say it lasts a year, two years, etc. as is the case with some infections, until that length of time has passed and you have not become re-infected even when you have been deliberately re-exposed to the virus.

The answers re immunity are something that it will takes years to arrive at.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> The answers re immunity are something that it will takes years to arrive at.


Yes and no to that. True that antibody effectiveness over time is an ongoing thing and "may take" months or years to figure out how long immunity lasts. 

However, I'm sure they can make a pretty accurate guess as to the short term immunity simply by the number of that have testing positive again, say a month later.


----------



## calm

Longtimeago said:


> Use your noodle calm.


.
I thought that this virus was kind of like the flu?
People get the flu more than one time.

They say that there is no herd immunity.
If there is no herd immunity then it seems to me that you can get hit with the virus several times?

It has been 6 months of infections and I have not read any information about some person surviving a first infection but became reinfected.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Yes and no to that. True that antibody effectiveness over time is an ongoing thing and "may take" months or years to figure out how long immunity lasts.
> 
> However, I'm sure they can make a pretty accurate guess as to the short term immunity simply by the number of that have testing positive again, say a month later.


How then would you rule out it recurring from the first infection as Malaria does?


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> .
> I thought that this virus was kind of like the flu?
> People get the flu more than one time.
> 
> They say that there is no herd immunity.
> If there is no herd immunity then it seems to me that you can get hit with the virus several times?
> 
> It has been 6 months of infections and I have not read any information about some person surviving a first infection but became reinfected.


Who are 'they'. There is no evidence proving that herd immunity does not apply. It may or may not be applicable. Herd immunity does require that immunity is possible though. There is no evidence yet to prove immunity is or is not possible. We just don't know yet.

"_However, whether immunity occurs among individuals after they have recovered from COVID-19 is uncertain. Many human infections with other viral pathogens, such as influenza virus, do not produce a durable immune response."_

Quoted from: COVID-19 and Postinfection Immunity

Cainvest, that link also contains this line which indicates what I have said about Malaria re-occurring from the first infection.

_"It is also possible these cases represent persistent or recrudescent COVID-19 illness or even true reinfection."_

So the author is saying it may re-occur or be a new infection. We don't know yet.


----------



## calm

Edit:

Thank you LongTimeAgo for your reply.
It answered my question.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> How then would you rule out it recurring from the first infection as Malaria does?


You may not need to ... it would all depend on the numbers you're seeing which nobody is reporting as far as I know.


----------



## calm

.
Even the Lone Ranger wore a mask.









Lone Ranger - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## like_to_retire

calm said:


> .
> Even the Lone Ranger wore a mask.



Yeah, and like so many people, he's wearing it incorrectly.

ltr


----------



## sags

Geez........



https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html?webmap=14aa9e5660cf42b5b4b546dec6ceec7c


----------



## GraceMetcal

this virus is a theme which we can talk and talk about, but a few people only really understand the situation we are in, sadly... I'm looking at the window and see people in gathering of 5-8 walking without any masks like nothing has happened. I'm shocked at people who decide that virus will get past them. It may struck at the most unexpected moment. That's why I ordered myself at once a whole pack of KN95 masks and always take with me at least 2, just in case.


----------



## Longtimeago

GraceMetcal said:


> this virus is a theme which we can talk and talk about, but a few people only really understand the situation we are in, sadly...


You may speak for your fellow Americans GraceMetcal but I think the vast majority of Canadians understand it very well. While you have runaway new cases all over the place, we have only small number of young dummies not acting responsibly. Look at the numbers for Canada vs. the USA and if you translate the to per capita for comparison, Canada is doing very well indeed by comparison. Our fear is Americans coming across our border.


----------



## sags

The popular beach at Grand Bend, Ontario was packed with an estimated crowd of 7,000 people.

They are now talking about closing the beach again. People just won't learn.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Until now, no one I have met or known personally has been afflicted with C-19. 

I had a video call from a friend in the Philippines this morning. She lives with family, one of whom is married to a man from Seattle area. They usually spend about half the year in the Phils, half in U.S. I met both of briefly when I was in the Phils in December. They were then about to return to the U.S. They could not stay all winter because he had to be back in Washington by January for reasons related to his business. I would guess he was about age 50. Died yesterday in Seattle, death attributed to C-19. 

That perhaps explains why we are seeing so many cars these days here in central Vancouver Island area with Washington plates. Coming here to escape. Apparently very easy, they just chant the magic words "driving to Alaska" and open sesame. In fact, I would doubt they are even questioned in seeking to cross. Lots of our hotels are closed, but the B and B places are chock-a-block full up with tourists and loving it. A silver lining for some in all of this. One Quadra Island operator told me it was his best season ever.


----------



## Money172375

I haven’t been following the cases in the US too closely but today I heard that movie theatres were open in California. Are most states essentially open for business? I don’t think theatres are open here in Ontario and patio service just started in restaurants.

was there ever a fulsome lockdown and closure of businesses in the US? If so, I suppose the case load is linked to them re-opening too soon?

the Indy 500 is planning on running in about 7 weeks....they’re allowing 50% capacity which could be around 125,000 people.....although it’s believed ”only” about 50,000 will choose to attend. Crazy.


----------



## sags

There is a serious disconnect in the US.

As they relentlessly talk about conditions becoming worse as infections spread and healthcare system is fully taxed, they also talk about opening up movie theaters and large events. California took tough measures, had it under control, and then opened up and are in trouble again.

It looks like they have reached the point where they don't have the financial capacity to wait any longer to open their economies.

Trump implemented his big tax cuts, which hit government revenues, and then the pandemic hit and the government spending is in freefall.

Now the GOP is talking about another Trump tax cut to prop up his chances for re-election, that will be financed by the Fed.

The Fed is already buying the poorest level of junk bonds just to keep sketchy companies alive.

I am thinking they are on the road to opening everything up and letting people die in the hospital corridors or at home.

A "let the chips fall where they may" attitude.


----------



## sags

I attended the Indy 500 in 1969 which they say is famous race driver Mario Andretti's most famous win.

It is a crazy place. I had never seen so many people in my life. Everything is on a massive scale and crowded in together like sardines in the can.

I was 19 at the time and skinny. Today I wouldn't fit into the seat.


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> Until now, no one I have met or known personally has been afflicted with C-19.
> 
> I had a video call from a friend in the Philippines this morning. She lives with family, one of whom is married to a man from Seattle area. They usually spend about half the year in the Phils, half in U.S. I met both of briefly when I was in the Phils in December. They were then about to return to the U.S. They could not stay all winter because he had to be back in Washington by January for reasons related to his business. I would guess he was about age 50. Died yesterday in Seattle, death attributed to C-19.
> 
> That perhaps explains why we are seeing so many cars these days here in central Vancouver Island area with Washington plates. Coming here to escape. Apparently very easy, they just chant the magic words "driving to Alaska" and open sesame. In fact, I would doubt they are even questioned in seeking to cross. Lots of our hotels are closed, but the B and B places are chock-a-block full up with tourists and loving it. A silver lining for some in all of this. One Quadra Island operator told me it was his best season ever.


Apparently, there is also a problem with those supposedly transiting to Alaska by boat. They are coming ashore and ignoring the guidelines they are given for transiting.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> The popular beach at Grand Bend, Ontario was packed with an estimated crowd of 7,000 people.
> 
> They are now talking about closing the beach again. People just won't learn.


The same thing happens over and over. The reality is that young people simply will not follow the guidelines and if you think about when you were 20-30, neither would you have. The municipalities need to simply accept that reality and then decide what are they going to do. 

You can't open a beach and expect anything other than what we have seen over and over again.


----------



## sags

The virus isn't going away because we are tired of it, or because it is costing the economy hundreds of billions of dollars.

It is never going away, and all we can do is wait for a vaccine to have some defense against it.


----------



## newfoundlander61

I went to a local Shoppers Drug Mart this morning here in Kingston, Ontario and there was an employee standing outside the door that said they cannot open up until 10am instead of 8am as they do not have enough employees to cover the shifts. Not sure if this has anything to do with the CERB or other things.


----------



## sags

Essential workers in LTC and retirement homes are getting worn out.

My wife is supposed to be part time, working maybe 30 hours every two weeks.

Since March, she has been working full shifts almost non-stop. She just worked 6 days in a row, has today off and is scheduled to work 14 days in a row.

She used to walk to work for exercise and I would put her up when she was done. Now she drives the car to work and and goes to bed after supper.

Thank goodness, she is in great physical shape for her age, but it is going to take a toll on her if it continues much longer.

People are now booking vacations (up to 5 weeks for some of them), to get time off, which means those remaining have to work "short staffed"

At to that, she has to wear a mask and gloves anytime she is contact with residents or fellow workers.

The company has been trying to hire people for months. There are no replies. Nobody wants to work there for fear of COVID.

The wife is at work every day, so we have no summer plans. She has the car so I am stuck at home. I am thinking of buying another vehicle.

I don't know how this is going to be resolved.


----------



## andrewf

Mukhang pera said:


> Until now, no one I have met or known personally has been afflicted with C-19.
> 
> I had a video call from a friend in the Philippines this morning. She lives with family, one of whom is married to a man from Seattle area. They usually spend about half the year in the Phils, half in U.S. I met both of briefly when I was in the Phils in December. They were then about to return to the U.S. They could not stay all winter because he had to be back in Washington by January for reasons related to his business. I would guess he was about age 50. Died yesterday in Seattle, death attributed to C-19.
> 
> That perhaps explains why we are seeing so many cars these days here in central Vancouver Island area with Washington plates. Coming here to escape. Apparently very easy, they just chant the magic words "driving to Alaska" and open sesame. In fact, I would doubt they are even questioned in seeking to cross. Lots of our hotels are closed, but the B and B places are chock-a-block full up with tourists and loving it. A silver lining for some in all of this. One Quadra Island operator told me it was his best season ever.


We should fine all these tourists if they are in the country longer than 3-4 days and if they never crossed into Alaska.


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> We should fine all these tourists if they are in the country longer than 3-4 days and if they never crossed into Alaska.


Yup, tell them before they come into Canada they have 72 hrs to cross back into Alaska or it's a $10,000 fine. So if they come back from Alaska going home and they stayed more than 72 hrs in Canada they'd have to pay up before being allowed to cross again.


----------



## like_to_retire

I'm wondering how the selection of Toronto and Edmonton as the cities that the NHL decided to host the playoffs will fare after the multitude of people from the USA cross the border to participate?

These cities will benefit from huge revenues, and that's good, but it won't just be 24 teams with 20 hockey players each that will end up in those cities. There's a lot more to it. They obviously couldn't find a suitable set of cities in the USA, so they decided to send everyone to Canada.

Is it a good idea?

ltr


----------



## bgc_fan

like_to_retire said:


> I'm wondering how the selection of Toronto and Edmonton as the cities that the NHL decided to host the playoffs will fare after the multitude of people from the USA cross the border to participate?
> 
> These cities will benefit from huge revenues, and that's good, but it won't just be 24 teams with 20 hockey players each that will end up in those cities. There's a lot more to it. They obviously couldn't find a suitable set of cities in the USA, so they decided to send everyone to Canada.
> 
> Is it a good idea?
> 
> ltr


It sounds more like they are going to be treated like athletes during the Olympics. Basically isolated into their own player village. Toronto, Edmonton likely to be hub cities when NHL postseason starts


----------



## Money172375

like_to_retire said:


> I'm wondering how the selection of Toronto and Edmonton as the cities that the NHL decided to host the playoffs will fare after the multitude of people from the USA cross the border to participate?
> 
> These cities will benefit from huge revenues, and that's good, but it won't just be 24 teams with 20 hockey players each that will end up in those cities. There's a lot more to it. They obviously couldn't find a suitable set of cities in the USA, so they decided to send everyone to Canada.
> 
> Is it a good idea?
> 
> ltr


Where’s the revenue Coming from? 

and it’s only 12 teams in each city right? I’d be curious to know how many people are coming from each team. I’d hope it tops out at 50.


----------



## like_to_retire

Money172375 said:


> Where’s the revenue Coming from?


I've read that all the teams will probably amount to around 1000 people that will require hotels and food services, etc for the duration. Then there's the media.

With the minuscule amount of activity in the food and lodging business, it can't hurt.

I just hope that it doesn't increase the COVID problem.

ltr


----------



## m3s

Longtimeago said:


> You can't open a beach and expect anything other than what we have seen over and over again.


I'm surrounded by beaches and here they just closed all the nearby beach parking. You can still walk or bike to the beach as long as you follow the same distancing guidelines.

Americans don't do walking or biking so I pretty much have all the beaches to myself now. Social distancing and hybrid work from home should just be the new norm imo


----------



## sags

The virus is claiming younger victims, and they are becoming very sick.

I read of a report that the virus has mutated and researchers think that may be the reason the virus is making younger people ill now.

The virus has developed a new way to enter the lungs and start causing damage.

There are now 4 different strains of the COVID virus.

The reality for some States like Texas is that it is looking pretty grim.

Some researchers are saying that the vaccines being developed may not work against the new strain of COVID.

Let's not get carried away with thinking we are safe to reopen everything. It may not be the case.









Doctor: The coronavirus patients are getting younger and are more sick - CNN Video


CNN's Miguel Marquez goes inside a San Antonio, Texas, hospital that is becoming overwhelmed with patients as the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread.




www.cnn.com


----------



## sags

m3s said:


> I'm surrounded by beaches and here they just closed all the nearby beach parking. You can still walk or bike to the beach as long as you follow the same distancing guidelines.
> 
> Americans don't do walking or biking so I pretty much have all the beaches to myself now. Social distancing and hybrid work from home should just be the new norm imo


Nobody is going to get infected by walking the beach 20 feet from anyone else, but we had 7,000 people cram onto a small local beach on Lake Huron.

It was wall to wall people..........some young, some old and no doubt some with health issues already.

I went out to only one store today, and had a hard time keeping away from idiots who kept approaching without a mask.

They were mostly older people and probably in the high risk category too.

Apparently, people are just too stupid to see a situation and decide to do something else.

They are going to the beach or down the grocery aisle, and that is all there is to it.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Apparently, people are just too stupid to see a crowd and decide to do something else.


Survival of the fittest wouldn't you say


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Yup, tell them before they come into Canada they have 72 hrs to cross back into Alaska or it's a $10,000 fine. So if they come back from Alaska going home and they stayed more than 72 hrs in Canada they'd have to pay up before being allowed to cross again.


It's not quite that simple unfortunately. You could equally say, why not simply say that if someone wants to transit across Canada to Alaska that they will simply have to follow the 14 day quarantine rule like any other traveller entering Canada has to do. That they are exempt from that quarantine should have you asking yourself 'how come'?

The answer is because we have a long standing border agreement with the USA that permits Americans to transit Canada to Alaska. It's a law in other words. So if you say to someone who wants to transit to Alaska, 'no, you have to quarantine for 14 days first', then you are breaking the existing border transit law.

To change that, would require a new border law be agreed to by both the USA and Canada. Want to open that kettle of fish for Trump to screw up?


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> The answer is because we have a long standing border agreement with the USA that permits Americans to transit Canada to Alaska. It's a law in other words.


The transit isn't in question, rather the illegal tourist travel while inside Canada. So if you break the rules you get fined and/or denied future entry.


----------



## Longtimeago

Here is another example of American stupidity and arrogance.


https://www.thelocal.it/20200703/treated-like-criminals-italian-police-turn-away-american-tourists-arriving-by-private-jet



The 'treated like criminals' comment is hilarious.


----------



## andrewf

> It's unclear why the group thought they would be allowed to enter Italy.


Rules are for poor people.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Fake and inflated Covid numbers out of Toronto. This according to Toronto Public Health:

"Individuals who have died with COVID-19, but not as a result of COVID-19 are included in the case counts for COVID-19 deaths in Toronto."


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1275888390060285967


----------



## nathan79

I think it would be hard to prove that COVID didn't contribute to a death, even if it was not the ultimate "cause" of death.

I'm wondering just how common such a secenario is. I think for COVID to _not_ be the cause, a person would have to be considered "near death" before they contracted COVID. When you look at any random person who might die on any particular day, how likely are they to be also infected with COVID at the exact same time? I didn't think the infection rate was so high that there is a huge cohort of people "about to die" that just happen to also have COVID... maybe someone has some actual stats on this.


----------



## like_to_retire

nathan79 said:


> I didn't think the infection rate was so high that there is a huge cohort of people "about to die" that just happen to also have COVID... maybe someone has some actual stats on this.


If someone is "about to die", aren't they isolated in bed already and very, very unlikely to contact the virus?

ltr


----------



## Prairie Guy

nathan79 said:


> I think it would be hard to prove that COVID didn't contribute to a death, even if it was not the ultimate "cause" of death.


90% of people don't get sick or only have mild symptoms. How can not being sick will contribute to an unrelated death?


----------



## sags

COVID doesn't actually kill someone, like a bullet to the heart. It is the symptoms of COVID that kills people.........pneumonia, strokes, etc.

I think it more likely whomeover looks after their Twitter feed screwed up the information.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> COVID doesn't actually kill someone, like a bullet to the heart. It is the symptoms of COVID that kills people.........pneumonia, strokes, etc.
> 
> I think it more likely whomeover looks after their Twitter feed screwed up the information.


The vast majority of people have no symptoms at all and you're talking about non-existent strokes?

You're right that someone screwed up. They accidentally told the truth that they are inflating the numbers. But don't worry...I'm sure a "correction" will be made to ensure it doesn't happen again and going forward we'll be expected to accept made up stats.


----------



## nathan79

There have been only 105,000 tested cases of COVID in Canada, or 0.28% of the population. Let's say Canada normally records 100,000 deaths over the same time period (the actual number varies depending on the month according to Stat Can). Assuming a random sample, it would be expected that 0.28% (280) of those deaths also tested positive for COVID. If the number of reported COVID deaths are higher it could mean a couple things... either dying patients are more likely than the general population to catch COVID but not actually die from it, or else COVID itself is causing the increased deaths. I'd say the latter is more likely -- I don't think dying people are more likely to catch COVID, since they're usually isolated in a hospital bed as like_to_retire pointed out... altough I think he was trying to argue something else.


----------



## sags

Everyone around Trump and Pence are getting the virus. It is only a matter of time until they get it.

Now Donald Jr's partner has it and she has been in contact with a lot of Republican donors. I bet they will be happy about it.


----------



## Longtimeago

Two thirds of Canadians support closing down again if necessary. The lowest support is in Quebec. Why am I not surprised.








Two-thirds of Canadians support closing businesses again if COVID-19 cases spike: survey


As scientists and policy-makers anticipate a second wave of COVID-19 later this year, a new survey from Nanos Research suggests a majority of Canadians support closing non-essential businesses again if cases spike.



toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## andrewf

Trump says they should test less to get fewer cases (awesome logic). Of course, they test everyone around Trump on a regular basis because he thinks his life is important.


----------



## james4beach

Hundreds of scientists say coronavirus is airborne, ask WHO to revise recommendations

239 scientists in 32 countries are saying that the virus isn't just spread by large droplets expelled from the mouth, but rather that it's airborne and can spread via smaller droplets.

The WHO says it's in large droplets that drop to the floor pretty quickly. These scientists are saying that it's much smaller droplets, and COVID-19 can stay in the air for a longer time -- it doesn't just drop to the floor.

If the scientists are correct, this could mean that inside buildings (including schools and offices) the virus could remain a threat, with recirculated air.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> If the scientists are correct, this could mean that inside buildings (including schools and offices) the virus could remain a threat, with recirculated air.


Since the paper hasn't been published yet it's difficuly to say what the "proposed" risks are and how far they say it travels. Infection transfer via case tracking in MB doesn't support airbourne transfer.


----------



## sags

As if COVID wasn't bad enough, there is now a case of Bubonic Plague (Black Plague) in Mongolia and China has another swine flu outbreak.

I think we will discover years from now that climate change effects produce the fertile conditions that spawn re-emergence of these viruses.


----------



## andrewf

Bubonic plague is not a big deal as it is highly treatable and does not spread easily given modern hygiene practices.

I don't think you can blame these outbreaks on global warming.


----------



## calm

An MSNBC guest with Andrea Mitchell claimed that 20% of virus people require intensive Care and will have some permanent damage and 1 percent will die.


----------



## calm

A nationwide study in Spain has found that, despite being one of the hardest-hit European nations, just 5 percent of the population has coronavirus antibodies, dispelling any hopes of herd immunity in the near future. 


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext


----------



## sags

With the fatality rate of COVID and the serious permanent injuries it leaves behind, herd immunity was never a serious consideration.

Containment until there is an effective treatment or vaccine is the only course of action. Economic cost is a far distant secondary issue.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> With the fatality rate of COVID and the serious permanent injuries it leaves behind, herd immunity was never a serious consideration.
> 
> Containment until there is an effective treatment or vaccine is the only course of action. Economic cost is a far distant secondary issue.



I agree the only answer is a vaccine.

But I wonder about all these people that seem to test positive and have no apparent symptoms - do they develop the antibodies for immunity?

ltr


----------



## andrewf

I think they develop antibodies. Whether anyone is developing enough antibodies to develop immunity and how long that immunity lasts is still unknown.

Many people who are asymptomatic are showing lung damage following infection. Just because you don't develop symptoms does not mean that infection does not take a toll on you, potentially permanently.


----------



## doctrine

US death rate at new lows. Something is happening and not many people are discussing it. The media is so focused on the spread of the virus. Why not some good news?


----------



## sags

The death rate is down because old age homes are locked down and better insulated from the virus while increasingly it is younger people who are contracting the disease.

The fatality rate is lower among that age group, but according to many ICU doctors some of the younger patients are suffering from serious long term effects to their health after their "recovery".

All that is being reported in the media. Fatality rates are one aspect of the virus, but not the only one.

It remains clear that when large groups gather indoors, the virus spreads rapidly. Any return to normalcy will have to be without large groups involved.

That is certainly going to make it difficult to manage. People who work in large office towers, large factories, etc. are at higher risk.

I would think simply living in a high rise apartment or condo puts a person at greater risk. I find it doubtful that every landlord has instituted a stiff regime of continous cleaning of common areas like elevators, stair rails, lobbies and other areas.

Canada is doing well. If we let our guard down, the virus will spread rapidly and everything will be back where it was in March.


----------



## andrewf

doctrine said:


> US death rate at new lows. Something is happening and not many people are discussing it. The media is so focused on the spread of the virus. Why not some good news?


The good news is that it is young idiots who are much less likely to die. But just as capable of spreading to their granny or their neighbours in the grocery store.


----------



## Longtimeago

Melbourne, Australia is now locking down following an outbreak in 9 apartment towers. No leaving your home except for essential reasons is being enforced. We never actually even went to a mandatory lock down here in Canada.








Australia to reimpose six-week coronavirus lockdown in second largest city as country battles potential second wave | CNN


Strict lockdown measures are to be reimposed in Melbourne, as authorities scramble to prevent a second wave of coronavirus infections spreading across the country.




www.cnn.com





Masks are now mandatory indoors in any public accessed buildings anywhere in Toronto and Ottawa with more municipalities intending to follow suit. 








Coronavirus: Face masks or coverings now mandatory in Toronto’s indoor public settings - Toronto | Globalnews.ca


The measure could be in place until the end of September when Toronto city council could then vote on a possible extension.




globalnews.ca


----------



## sags

We got our $300 extra OAS funds today. Seniors will be glad for the extra cash.


----------



## bgc_fan

Interesting article about the possibility of COVID 19 being in Spain in March 2019. This would explain why there were 2 genetic variants fairly early in the outbreak. But more needs to be studied.
Coronavirus traces found in March 2019 sewage sample, Spanish study shows


----------



## sags

The way the virus has impacted different age groups over time, makes me wonder if mutations aren't a more serious problem than previously thought.

At first it appeared it was mostly attacking older people. The plan was to isolate the older people and everything could carry on.

Then younger people started having more severe symptoms, including ICU care and deaths. 

Now some say the virus has mutated again and created a new method of entering the cells.

I don't know. There are so many reports and studies from different sources, that nothing is clear anymore.

The WHO or CDC should be the places to go for the most up to date information, but it appears both organizations have been politicized.


----------



## Longtimeago

Yesterday we did an Express Pickup at our local PC Superstore. While waiting for them to bring out our order, I was watching the people going in and out of the store. Very few were wearing a mask, couples were going in together or even with children and I saw several come out with only 1 or 2 items. One guy came out with a single bag of carrots.

My concern is that people are going back to their same old habits as if the virus no longer existed and that may well lead to more outbreaks. We need government at all levels to go back to STRONG messages about continuing to take all the same precautions.


----------



## andrewf

bgc_fan said:


> Interesting article about the possibility of COVID 19 being in Spain in March 2019. This would explain why there were 2 genetic variants fairly early in the outbreak. But more needs to be studied.
> Coronavirus traces found in March 2019 sewage sample, Spanish study shows


Not sure how that would square with it not becoming widespread until a year later.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> Yesterday we did an Express Pickup at our local PC Superstore. While waiting for them to bring out our order, I was watching the people going in and out of the store. Very few were wearing a mask, couples were going in together or even with children and I saw several come out with only 1 or 2 items. One guy came out with a single bag of carrots.
> 
> My concern is that people are going back to their same old habits as if the virus no longer existed and that may well lead to more outbreaks. We need government at all levels to go back to STRONG messages about continuing to take all the same precautions.


If we are allowing people to drink on patios I don't know if we should be shaming people for buying carrots.


----------



## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> Not sure how that would square with it not becoming widespread until a year later.


Like I said there would need to be more research into it. It could be that there were traces of virus that are similar to COVID that they found. 
Assuming it actually started in Spain, it could be that cases/deaths were simply classified as a regular flu. It would be interesting to see what the flu reporting was like during 2019 and if it was out of norm from historical averages. Travelers could have brought it to Wuhan, where it mutated and became more deadly.

There were already stories about the virus being present before the first "official" cases in France: French doctors say they found a COVID-19 patient from December

In some ways, it would explain why there seemed to be 2 distinct strains. If it mutated that quickly to have 2 distinct strains in a month (i.e. between Dec - Wuhan, and Jan - France's official first case), you'd think there would be a lot more strains. However, if we're talking about a difference from March (Spain) to Dec (Wuhan), it could mean that it doesn't mutate very quickly, which has been reported before: Coronavirus seems to mutate much slower than seasonal flu


----------



## twa2w

Well there are also viruses that you develop antibodies to that can come back in a different form years later like chicken pox/shingles. Then there is the herpes virus that you develop antibodies to, but those fade and the virus hides in your cells and reappears later, sometimes repeatedly throughout life. No evidence of any corona virus doing that in other species but it has been suggested as a possibility by some researchers..
Corona virus in other animals, esp cattle herds, seem to produce antibodies that seem to be detectable about 6 months but protect against new outbreaks for about 3 years. While a body may not continue to make antibodies, it remembers the formula for a while after stopping production of the antibodies.
Will that be true of this one? Wild ruminants(various species of deer tested) seem to have about a 6-10% seropositvie rate for Bovine Corona Virus so perhaps that is the rate for somewhat herd immunity. Although that may be a 3 year cycle as noted in cattle - and this is based on limited research and testing.
Various corona infections are associated with respiratory, enteric, hepatic, and central nervous system diseases depending on the species of animal. Usually it will only present itself in one or two systems in a species but so far in humans it seems to be able to present in any of these although primarily the respiratory system. In some species it is suspected to be associated with later adenocarcinoma development if it affects the enteric system. - this is just a hypothesis aka scientific speculation.
It has also been suggested, based on some evidence, that COVID19 may cross the blood/brain barrier. 
There is a lot we do not know yet and mutations may change the virus and how it presents. It may be years before we see what the long term damage is for low or asysmtomatic people. I suspect we will see 1 million deaths in the USA before this is done and a proportional number in other countries although countries with better measures will take longer to reach those levels.
A vaccine - don't hold your breath. Although vaccines are actually pretty easy to develop, safe effective vaccines are another matter.
Some corona species seem to have an ability to grow better when trypsin is added to the culture medium in labs. Is there a role for trypsin inhibitor in some cases?.
Some carefully dosed minerals seem to mediate the cytokine response in the body. Is there role for that?

Keep safe out there and don't speak moistly


----------



## Longtimeago

Meanwhile the virus is still with us and as dangerous as ever. Now we have this WE Charity scandal which will no doubt consume the media's attention and further reduce the attention being paid to the virus and what we are doing to contain it.

Please do not comment on the WE scandal in response to my comment here. Comment on Covid-19 which is the topic that we all should be paying attention to still.

A recent poll indicated that at least as many Canadians as ever are anxious and concerned about Covid. The difference is that now what is driving the anxiety is concern about our border with the USA and the potential if we open the border. I guess people are worried that political and economic pressure to open the border may overcome health risk as a reason to keep it closed.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-covid-canada-us-1.5640734


----------



## calm

I just heard a scientist on CNN say that all scientists who study these type of viruses know that this is the "Quiet Time".
It is fall and winter when the virus will really be evident.
I understand that 1000 medical staff have died and this is the quitet time.
I think they talk about school just to ease our stress.


----------



## calm

As Vaccine Skepticism In U.S. Grows, Experts Recommend Strategies For Covid-19 Vaccination Campaign
As polling suggests that only half of America's population would be willing to get the Covid-19 vaccine if it were available, a panel of scientific and academic experts on Thursdays released a set of recommendations for how to boost confidence in vaccines, including appointing community spokespeople and making the vaccine free to all and available at familiar places like centers for worship.
By Alexandra Sternlicht
July 09, 2020








As Vaccine Skepticism In U.S. Grows, Experts Recommend Strategies For Covid-19 Vaccination Campaign


Polling suggests only 50% of the population would get a Covid-19 vaccine were it available.




www.forbes.com




(PDF Document)


https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/pubs_archive/pubs-pdfs/2020/200709-The-Publics-Role-in-COVID-19-Vaccination.pdf


----------



## calm

Longterm* symptoms reported by COVID-19 patients








Many Stay Sick After Recovering From Coronavirus


One in 10 people infected with the coronavirus suffers from fatigue, muscle aches or neurological disorders for weeks after surviving an infection. What long-term damage does the virus do to the body?




www.spiegel.de


----------



## james4beach

According to the experts cited here, you don't have to worry so much about cleaning and sanitizing surfaces. The bigger problem is close proximity to infected people, airborne transmission.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-surfaces-groceries-packages-playgrounds-1.5645602



Surfaces may not be that dangerous for COVID-19. And people probably shouldn't be wearing gloves for extended lengths of time (see article).

Instead, it's looking -- increasingly -- like air contact and close proximity is the main method of infection. Just about anything outdoors is safer ... good ventilation, lots of air volume.

So get outside and enjoy summer. And if you're indoors, stay away from people.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> Longterm* symptoms reported by COVID-19 patients
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Many Stay Sick After Recovering From Coronavirus
> 
> 
> One in 10 people infected with the coronavirus suffers from fatigue, muscle aches or neurological disorders for weeks after surviving an infection. What long-term damage does the virus do to the body?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.spiegel.de


I have been questioning for months why this is not given more attention by the media and government. If you want to scare a 30 year old, don't tell them, you are at lower risk of dying, tell them you are at as high a risk of having long tern health issues. 

They need to stop using the word 'recovered' when in fact they are only talking about 'didn't die.' We see three numbers. Number of cases, deaths and recovered. 


ontario covid numbers - Google Search



Anyone reading those numbers I am sure interprets 'recovered' as meaning FULLY recovered with no ongoing or lasting negative health affects. That's simply not true at all.

A 30 year old out partying with friends fearlessly might think differently if told, if you get the virus you have a good chance of having life long lung problems or perhaps neurological damage or may lose your sense of smell and taste permanently, etc. etc.


----------



## calm

Longtimeago said:


> I have been questioning for months why this is not given more attention by the media and government.


Perhaps the press is not telling us any truth because we would not have any workers stacking the shelves at grocery stores? Maybe they know any real truth would result in an increase in suicides?

It seems to me that reporters are acting as "Bickering Contestants".

In America the congress has named the new bailout plan as The Heroes Act because anybody working to stack grocery shelves and anyone manning the barricades against the ongoing revolt will be given huge increases in benefits and payroll. Martial Law will be introduced and those that bash-in the heads of protesters will be named as Heroes.

I think the press is downplaying every item reported and are spoon feeding the population.
I am thinking that we will all be doing this mask routine and hibernating like hermits for a minimum of 3-5 years. In the near term, no vaccine will be 100 percent effective.

All this chatter about returning to school is just to soothe the population and to have it appear that governments have things under control. The amount of money required to equip our schools and operate "normally" is prohibitive. Just "Distancing" would mean ordering 10's of thousands of portable classrooms and revamping the overhead ventilation systems in order to redirect air movement. In Canada additional ventilation would have heating costs skyrocket.


----------



## calm

My patient caught Covid-19 twice.

My patient, however, cleared his infection — he had two negative PCR tests after his first infection — and felt healthy for nearly six weeks.

50-year-old patient just tested positive for Covid-19, for a second time — three months after a previous infection.

Covid-19 may also be much worse the second time around. During his first infection, my patient experienced a mild cough and sore throat. His second infection, in contrast, was marked by a high fever, shortness of breath, and hypoxia, resulting in multiple trips to the hospital.

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes?
Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity could be wishful thinking.
By D. Clay Ackerly
July 12, 2020








"My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes?"


Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity could be wishful thinking.




www.vox.com


----------



## newfoundlander61

This is a nice thing to see, for sure.

"*First Canadian clinical trial of any COVID-19 vaccine is launched in Quebec City"

First Canadian clinical trial of any COVID-19 vaccine is launched in Quebec City*


----------



## bgc_fan

Kind of a weird world where Lithuania is sending the USA humanitarian aid.
Lithuania sends humanitarian aid to US to help fight coronavirus


----------



## like_to_retire

*'Good news': First trial of COVID-19 vaccine by drug developer Moderna show it induces virus-killing antibodies.*


----------



## Longtimeago

As things ease up, it appears we will need to keep a close eye on travellers.








Police notified of 21,422 cases where travellers to Canada may have broken quarantine rules


Police have been notified for follow-up in more than 21,000 cases where travellers arriving in Canada either couldn't be reached or showed 'indication of non-compliance' with the mandatory 14-day quarantine rules.



www.ctvnews.ca




While there is a system in place for this, it could become overwhelming if more people chose to travel.


----------



## sags

What we really need is better tests. We are still sticking a long swab up people's nose and waiting 3 days for results.


----------



## bgc_fan

For those who think that young people assembling and catching COVID 19 isn't an issue, you may want to read this story.






Florida son met friends against family’s wishes. Now dad has COVID-19, fighting for his life - National | Globalnews.ca


The young man, who did not want to talk to the media, had told his father and stepmother that he initially thought he had a common cold and took over-the-counter medication.




globalnews.ca





Long story short, teen goes partying without precautions, friend tests positive and the he starts having cold symptoms. His whole family gets infected and father is in hospital.


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> Long story short, teen goes partying without precautions, friend tests positive and the he starts having cold symptoms. His whole family gets infected and father is in hospital.


Thanks for posting. Some people need these reminders that this is a serious illness... it's not a cold.


----------



## Retired Peasant

"..some patients in the “mildly symptomatic” category turn out to be substantially burdened by Covid-19 for long periods of time, sometimes months "

Report Suggests Some ‘Mildly Symptomatic’ Covid-19 Patients Endure Serious Long-Term Effects


----------



## Longtimeago

Wasaga Beach have instituted a 'pod' approach to beach goers. Basically the beach is being divided up by fencing into 'pods' which each have a designated capacity based on square metres and physical distancing. Beach goers get in on a first come, first served basis, up to that capacity. Anyone arriving after capacity is reached will obviously be refused entry.








Wasaga Beach's new beachfront pods officially open to mixed reviews


Wasaga Beach's four new pods opened on Friday for the first time, and it didn't take long for them to reach capacity.



barrie.ctvnews.ca





It has only started and may need some tweeking but it seems like a workable solution to controlling beaches.

Another area of issue is of course bars and there are some unique approaches being taken there in some countries. For example, in the UK, you must give your name and contact phone number when you enter. In some, you must have a reservation, no walk-ins. In some you are limited to a 'time slot' of 2-3 hours. So you cannot sit in a bar/restaurant all night getting drunk. 

Greece has had a spike in cases since opening to tourists. A warning to all countries I would say.








Greece could tighten lockdown restrictions after tourists bring spike in coronavirus cases


There are currently more active cases of Covid-19 in Greece than at any previous point in the pandemic




www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Longtimeago

The federal government has said no to the Blue Jays request to play home games in Toronto.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-to-reveal-blue-jays-decision-1.5654846



I am in total agreement with that decision. No matter what restrictions they might have put on the players when they were in Toronto, there would still be risk and it is not necessary to take that risk when the situation is as it is in the USA.


----------



## Mukhang pera

calm said:


> Perhaps the press is not telling us any truth because we would not have any workers stacking the shelves at grocery stores? Maybe they know any real truth would result in an increase in suicides?


That chicken may have come home to roost already:






‘A Year's Worth of Suicide Attempts in Four Weeks’: The Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Lockdowns | Jon Miltimore


An ABC affiliate in California reports that doctors at John Muir Medical Center tell them they have seen more deaths by suicide than COVID-19 during the quarantine. “The numbers are unprecedented,” said Dr. Michael deBoisblanc, referring to the spike in suicides. "We've never seen numbers like...



fee.org


----------



## Longtimeago

I am beginning to think that many things are going to get worse before they get better.

The worldwide cases continue to rise and there is no sign of flattening the curve overall. Yesterday the WHO reported a record 250,000 new cases worldwide. We don't live in a bubble here in Canada.


----------



## sags

Millions of Americans are getting their wages or hours cut, and it is having an impact on the economy.

Lower wages means less spending which means less economic activity which means lower wages or fewer hours............a downward cycle.

Americans don't have the financial support of Canadians or free healthcare. We need to keep government supports in place or we will look like the US.









America’s hidden economic crisis: Widespread wage cuts


Employers are using pay cuts to stay afloat during the recession, an unusual move that could signal deep damage to the labor market.




www.politico.com


----------



## calm

Another year of COVID ahead 'If we don't change our ways'
Only 7-8% of U.S. population infected.
To reach 50-60% requires 70,000 cases per day for the next 355 days.
NBC - Meet The Press
Host Chuck Todd interviews Michael Osterholm
(Flash Video)


Dr. Osterholm: Another year of COVID ahead 'If we don't change our ways'


----------



## Longtimeago

There is more than just a year ahead for the impact of Covid-19 whether we change our ways or not calm. I think some people still don't realize just how big an impact this is having and will continue to have.


----------



## calm

Longtimeago said:


> There is more than just a year ahead for the impact of Covid-19


I understood that the scientist was discussing the high infection rates in America at this time and even with the present infection rates (and deaths) as high as they are, infections represent only 7-8 percent of the population.
In order to reach a 50-60% infection rate would require 70,000 cases per day for the next 355 days.


----------



## calm

Taiwan’s claim that it provided early warning to the WHO about Covid and “human-to human-transmission” has been exploited by the Trump administration to attack the multi-lateral body and turn up the heat on China. There’s just one problem: it’s totally false.

The Taiwanese government has claimed that it provided early warning to the World Health Organization (WHO) at the end of December about the novel coronavirus and the risk of human-to-human transmission, but was ignored due to pressure from China.

....there is no evidence any such warning was ever issued by Taiwan to the WHO.

....the claims of the US and Taiwanese authorities are a complete fabrication. Taiwan never provided any warning to the WHO about the novel coronavirus or its transmissibility.
By Ajit Singh
July 17, 2020








With US support, Taiwan planted deception about warning World Health Org of Covid - The Grayzone


Taiwan’s claim that it provided early warning to the WHO about Covid and “human-to human-transmission” has been exploited by the Trump administration to attack the multi-lateral body and turn up the heat on China. There’s just one problem: it’s totally false. By Ajit Singh The Taiwanese...




thegrayzone.com


----------



## Longtimeago

The number of cases overall is increasing. A predictable result of opening up. The question is can we level off with a new baseline by testing and tracing. We cannot expect NO increase but if we can level off at a slightly higher level than our lowest point then that will be the ACCEPTABLE level we have to live with if we want to re-start businesses.

IF however, we cannot hold at a new 'plateau' and new cases just continue to climb, there will have to be a point (a number) at which we have to shut down some things at least again.









‘We’re going to run out of time’: Health experts sound alarm as Canada’s coronavirus cases rise - National | Globalnews.ca


Health experts worry that Canada's coronavirus cases are trending in the wrong direction.




globalnews.ca


----------



## sags

The Trump administration are a bunch of liars, fakers, and con artists.........and those are their good qualities.


----------



## :) lonewolf

sags said:


> The Trump administration are a bunch of liars, fakers, and con artists.........and those are their good qualities.


Too much CNN, The fake numbers are higher in the US to help over take Trump in election. Wont need ID to vote if Dems get their way

I trust Trump more then any other career politician because when he is done he will return to the private sector. A career politician is simply taken care of for life & has nothing to return to. I do not support Sorros, Gate, Rockerfeller using their money to take over huge sections of government . We are the lower class scum which will be poisoned with their vaccines while everyone hails the masters behind the scamdemic. Let the corrupt government do our thinking.

Please please Mr career politician I am so scared & helpless you are so kind & never hurt anyone please protect me. Please vaccinate me with your poison


----------



## Yvonne34

sags said:


> The Trump administration are a bunch of liars, fakers, and con artists.........and those are their good qualities.


as they're real actors)) that's the point, the whole system turned out to be a huge circus...


----------



## Andysalman67

Probably, you're right, just hope that this circus will end somehow(


----------



## Longtimeago

Passengers on flights that have had someone test positive are not being advised directly of that.








Passengers on 30 flights in Canada potentially exposed to COVID-19


A total of 30 flights have landed at a Canadian airport in the last two weeks with at least one confirmed case of COVID-19 onboard but passengers on those planes may not have been directly informed of their exposure risk.




www.ctvnews.ca





That count of 30 flights would appear to overlap with but not necessarily include the 26 flights previously reported.


https://www.https//www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/passengers-on-30-flights-in-canada-potentially-exposed-to-covid-19-1.5036897ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/at-least-26-flights-have-arrived-in-canada-with-covid-19-cases-in-last-two-weeks-1.5024278



Airlines do not want to tell passengers they were on a flight with someone who later tested positive as that would obviously discourage people from flying. So they say it is not their job to inform us.

I don't know what excuse public health is using for not doing a contact follow-up. While passengers arriving on international flights are required to self-isolate for 14 days anyway, there is no requirement for those taking domestic flights to isolate.

It looks like everyone is passing the buck and this is a flaw in the contact tracing systems being used in regards to air travel.


----------



## calm

I viewed an interview yesterday on CNN and where a scientist previewed what was known about the vaccine programs. I tried all day yesterday to find the video but was unable to.
The transcript is available this morning. If I find the video later I will post it.

U.S. Faces Major Hurdles for Vaccine Distribution Once Approved; Dr. Paul Offit Discusses U.S. Vaccine Development

Find this time on page:
[11:20:07]




__





CNN.com - Transcripts






transcripts.cnn.com


----------



## calm

"Every 8 minutes somebody in Florida dies of Coronavirus"
--Brian Williams, MSNBC, 11th hour, July 24, 2020--


----------



## Spudd

:) lonewolf said:


> I trust Trump more then any other career politician because when he is done he will return to the private sector. A career politician is simply taken care of for life & has nothing to return to. I do not support Sorros, Gate, Rockerfeller using their money to take over huge sections of government .


Soros, Gates, Rockefeller would also have the private sector to return to.


----------



## Longtimeago

Idiocy knows no bounds.








Brampton property owners fined after 200-person house party - CHCH


A Brampton homeowner has been fined following a massive house party this weekend.




www.chch.com





I think they need to start ticketing ALL those attending such gatherings, not just the house owner.


----------



## calm

Risk, uncertainty and fear of failure: Why scientists aren't celebrating a coronavirus vaccine yet
Scientific community wrestling with how to deal with both public hesitancy and overblown expectations for a potential jab
By Daniel Capurro
July 26, 2020








Risk, uncertainty and fear of failure: Why scientists aren't celebrating a coronavirus vaccine yet


Scientific community wrestling with how to deal with both public hesitancy and overblown expectations for a potential jab




www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## newfoundlander61

I took a walk through our largest mall here in Kingston today and saw at least half a dozen businesses that have closed their doors for good or are on the way out with closing sales.


----------



## calm

Kingston will do better than most.
Lots of military and lots of prisons.
There is going to be a huge demand for these services in the very near future.


----------



## calm

Got no money for Social Investments .....

Coronavirus relief package For Israel .....

Tweet:
By Anthony Wier
"$686 million in the coronavirus relief package to buy F-35’s. $1.1 billion for a P-8. $243 million for missile defense radars. $66 million for hypersonic missile defense. Scientists worry about airborne transmission of the virus—but I don’t think that’s quite what they meant."
July 27, 2020

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1287894773601316864


----------



## bgc_fan

calm said:


> Got no money for Social Investments .....
> 
> Coronavirus relief package For Israel .....
> 
> Tweet:
> By Anthony Wier
> "$686 million in the coronavirus relief package to buy F-35’s. $1.1 billion for a P-8. $243 million for missile defense radars. $66 million for hypersonic missile defense. Scientists worry about airborne transmission of the virus—but I don’t think that’s quite what they meant."
> July 27, 2020
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1287894773601316864


It's part of the whole trickle-down economics philosophy. Give businesses money and it will flow down to the people. Too bad decades of showing how nonsensical it is can't convince conservative types that it doesn't work.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> It's part of the whole trickle-down economics philosophy. Give businesses money and it will flow down to the people. Too bad decades of showing how nonsensical it is can't convince conservative types that it doesn't work.


Naw, that's just politics, the US is brutal for omnibus bills/pork.

One of the many things wrong with the way they practice politics.
Also it's a problem in Canada as well. 
Justin Trudeau needs to stop borrowing Stephen Harper's omnibus trick - Macleans.ca

As much as I'd rather they actually debate the individual issues, as a negotiating tactic I much prefer the public quid pro quo, which is voted on and in the public record, vs secret backroom dealings.


----------



## :) lonewolf

Longtimeago said:


> I think they need to start ticketing ALL those attending such gatherings, not just the house owner.


You would make a good dictator


----------



## :) lonewolf

Spudd said:


> Soros, Gates, Rockefeller would also have the private sector to return to.


 Gates wants to control everyone Trump said to liberate your states big difference. The scandemic is bringing out the want to be dictators in our country.


----------



## james4beach

Good news. We're starting to see better treatments coming online.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/remdesivir-authorized-severe-covid-19-1.5665905


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Good news. We're starting to see better treatments coming online.
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/remdesivir-authorized-severe-covid-19-1.5665905


Except the US bought up almost the entire global supply.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Except the US bought up almost the entire global supply.


This is unfortunate.

Canada should be investigating some of the effective treatments that Cuba has created. Already, they're being deployed in China. If the US is locking us out of certain treatments, we should get them from elsewhere.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Naw, that's just politics, the US is brutal for omnibus bills/pork.


A bit of both. You would never succeed by putting in a rider on the bill for expanded medicare, but money to support a company? Republicans would fall all over that.


----------



## calm

MrMatt said:


> Naw, that's just politics, the US is brutal for omnibus bills/pork.


.
The point I was making is that there are claims that there is no money or social investments but plenty of money for Israel and where Israel enjoys a very good standard of living.
Israel is not a poor country.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> A bit of both. You would never succeed by putting in a rider on the bill for expanded medicare, but money to support a company? Republicans would fall all over that.


Sorry, but I'm sure you'll find a lot of Democrat riders on bills too.
I'm sure the more corporatist Republicans like that crap, the more Libertarians don't.


----------



## MrMatt

calm said:


> .
> The point I was making is that there are claims that there is no money or social investments but plenty of money for Israel and where Israel enjoys a very good standard of living.
> Israel is not a poor country.


Nobody said there is no money for social investment.
It's the protestors and rioters who are literally arguing to DEFUND and reduce social investment.


----------



## Longtimeago

Toronto is moving to stage three. Prepare for a surge in cases.

It really is a two edged sword. We need an economy but it comes at an increased risk to our health. The only thing I hope will happen when the inevitable surge in cases occurs because people will ignore the distancing etc. is that we will once and for all move from 'educating' to 'enforcing'. 

I know bylaw enforcement officers and the police can't be everywhere, writing everyone who doesn't comply, a ticket but they can be everywhere they can be and writing every ticket they can write. When they start writing a thousand tickets a week, the message will get through.

I believe that is the ONLY way we can hope to keep the increase low enough that it can be controlled by contact tracing.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Sorry, but I'm sure you'll find a lot of Democrat riders on bills too.
> I'm sure the more corporatist Republicans like that crap, the more Libertarians don't.


They all have their pet priorities.


----------



## calm

MrMatt said:


> Nobody said there is no money for social investment.
> It's the protestors and rioters who are literally arguing to DEFUND and reduce social investment.


I think it might be called "Priorities".
I think that when Trump calls for investing into America and not China or some other country, this proves he is not serious. Look at the money going to Israel in the past year. Promises of probably 50 billion dollars.

All the while Trump and his supporters all scream "Make America Great Again".
Why are Israeli citizens more deserving than American citizens at this time or during this event?

There is a huge bunch of Israeli Folks with millions in the bank. They got the money to pay.




__





6 in 10 Americans say "U.S. gives too much foreign aid to Israel"


The U.S. has given more aid to Israel than it has to all the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean combined—which have a total population of over a billion people.




ifamericansknew.org





Canada had to pay for the F-35. Israel got a dozen and for free.

Why are they acting like beggars?
Why are they more deserving than a person asking to continue his unemployment payments?


----------



## calm

Howcome you can catch the virus from my breath but not from my fart?

Right now I am quietly dispersing the warm gaseous airs without much anxiety.

Any such animal as "Anti-Virus Underwear" ?
Or should I just fart loudly to warn people off?


----------



## bgc_fan

calm said:


> Howcome you can catch the virus from my breath but not from my fart?
> 
> Right now I am quietly dispersing the warm gaseous airs without much anxiety.
> 
> Any such animal as "Anti-Virus Underwear" ?
> Or should I just fart loudly to warn people off?


If you like copper infused clothing: Copper Underwear for Men | How Can They Help You?


----------



## andrewf

Herman Cain died of coronavirus. I'm sure lonewolf will claim he was hit by a bus instead. He was hospitalized early in July, possibly contracting the virus at the Tulsa Trump rally on June 20.


----------



## bgc_fan

In interesting article at Vanity Fair about some of the behind the scenes shenanigans in the White House which led to the current US situation.
How Jared Kushner’s Secret Testing Plan “Went Poof Into Thin Air”


----------



## sags

Herman Cain was a loyal Trumper to the end.......his end. Trump did say a few kind words about him, so there is that.


----------



## Longtimeago

Well, the long weekend is here and no doubt thousands will be flocking to the beaches. Not good news for managing the virus obviously.

I can understand why some people want to go to a beach but why do they all seem to want to go to the same beach? Do they think there is only one? Canada has countless beaches and many of them will doubtless see not one person on them this weekend. Why don't people go to a quieter, less crowded beach given the virus in our midst right now?

There is a beach about 15 minutes from our house. It is quite small but as good as any other beach, nice sand, parking available. It can handle maybe 50 people with plenty of space for each. Whenever we pass by, if there are 10 cars there I call it busy. About 30 minutes away from us is a bigger beach. It runs for several kilometres in length. But is is popular and if I pass by there I will see 50-100 cars and all of the people within about a 500 yard stretch of the beach. In other words, crowded together when there is no need to be. Is it that they can't carry their coolers any farther than that? Can they not look for that quieter beach?

Are people such sheep that they can't think?


----------



## Plugging Along

calm said:


> Howcome you can catch the virus from my breath but not from my fart?
> 
> Right now I am quietly dispersing the warm gaseous airs without much anxiety.
> 
> Any such animal as "Anti-Virus Underwear" ?
> Or should I just fart loudly to warn people off?


I did reply to part of this in the other thread, but did not answer the question about virus though your @$$ (unless you mouth and butthole share they same hole such as some leaders with out of control countries particularly, but that is not this discussion). 

Virus that goes though your digestive system can still be active and transmit. But take more to be airborne. it would most likely come out in a more ‘solid’ form which generally people should be able to avoid. If it comes up in gas form, most people wear underwear or some form of clothing which essentially is the equivalent as a mask to your butt. Again, this is the same principle as wearing underpants or coverings on my butt protect you from me. There is also the thought of what if one choose to go commando and wear a skirt. Since, it is ones ‘freedom’ to let them hang out privately. I would suppose that there is less protection provided, this would be the equivalent of someone wearing only a face shield, Howeverm , I feel confident that my 2 meter distance and mask would still provide me protection in the event a commando, Short shirt wearing , COVID Infested expels gas, I would still be protected. So even thought there is no study on this specific topic, I do believe masks will still provide some protection. 

Interesting thing is I have not seen as many protests against butt masks with the exception some toddlees have seen stripped and run free. I do know if they knew what they were pretesting though.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Well, the long weekend is here and no doubt thousands will be flocking to the beaches. Not good news for managing the virus obviously.
> 
> I can understand why some people want to go to a beach but why do they all seem to want to go to the same beach? Do they think there is only one? Canada has countless beaches and many of them will doubtless see not one person on them this weekend. Why don't people go to a quieter, less crowded beach given the virus in our midst right now?
> 
> There is a beach about 15 minutes from our house. It is quite small but as good as any other beach, nice sand, parking available. It can handle maybe 50 people with plenty of space for each. Whenever we pass by, if there are 10 cars there I call it busy. About 30 minutes away from us is a bigger beach. It runs for several kilometres in length. But is is popular and if I pass by there I will see 50-100 cars and all of the people within about a 500 yard stretch of the beach. In other words, crowded together when there is no need to be. Is it that they can't carry their coolers any farther than that? Can they not look for that quieter beach?
> 
> Are people such sheep that they can't think?


some people like to people watch...you know,,,,bikinis and all.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> some people like to people watch...you know,,,,bikinis and all.


Have you looked at the average Canadian lately? Male or female, not many are worth looking at. I see more 'beached whales' on beaches than 'bathing beauties'.


----------



## like_to_retire

It's amazing how different parts of the world seem to get taken over by this virus and others are doing so well.

Australia's Victoria declares 'state of disaster,' locking down millions in Melbourne as virus cases soar

_"The premier of Victoria plunged the region into a "state of disaster" on Sunday, announcing even stricter lockdown measures, introducing a nightly curfew and banning virtually all trips outdoors after Australia's second largest state recorded 671 new infections in a single day."

"Where you slept last night is where you'll need to stay for the next six weeks," Andrews said, announcing a curfew between 8 p.m. and 5 a.m. beginning Sunday evening and moving Metropolitan Melbourne into stage four lockdown measures."

"In that part of the state, only one person per household will be allowed to leave their homes once a day -- outside of curfew hours -- to pick up essential goods, and they must stay within a 5 kilometer radius of their home."_

ltr


----------



## Money172375

Start thinking ahead....there may be a run on winter supplies soon. People in my neighbourhood who usually go down south don’t even own boots, shovels, winter coats, ice scrapers etc etc.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> Start thinking ahead....there may be a run on winter supplies soon. People in my neighbourhood who usually go down south don’t even own boots, shovels, winter coats, ice scrapers etc etc.


Hardly likely to result in a 'run on winter supplies.' They only make up about 1% of our total population Money172375. What is more likely to result in a 'run' on anything is if people see spikes and start to panic about a second wave starting up. The 'run' then will be on the same things as it was when this all began.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Hardly likely to result in a 'run on winter supplies.' They only make up about 1% of our total population Money172375. What is more likely to result in a 'run' on anything is if people see spikes and start to panic about a second wave starting up. The 'run' then will be on the same things as it was when this all began.


I suppose that’s correct, but in my small neighbourhood, the need for paid snow removal will double.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> I suppose that’s correct, but in my small neighbourhood, the need for paid snow removal will double.


Well, now you have identified a place to perhaps invest some money! You may actually be onto something here Money172375.

Buy a couple of used riding mowers and a trailer to haul them around on. Remove the mowing attachment and put on a snow blowing attachment. Add chains to the rear drive wheels and you are ready to go. They will easily do any driveway in short order. Find a couple of unemployed guys looking for a job and buy a new cellphone for the business. Put up flyers around your area specifically aimed at Snowbirds. ie.

"NOT SNOWBIRDING THIS YEAR?
Many snowbirds will stay home this winter and are not equipped to deal with snow in their driveway. Let us do it for you for less than it will cost you to equip yourself and risk a heart attack.
Call XXX-XXXX for a free quote at less than 8 CENTS a square foot."

Buying used mowers, snowblowers and trailer should be doable under $10k. Employees paid per driveway. Operating costs quite low. Price per sq. ft. of driveway cleared would be easy enough to work out. 

Some numbers. What's an Annual Snow Removal Contract Cost?

LOL, maybe you could stay home this winter and make money.


----------



## calm

I just heard a guy in TV-Land say that it is cruel to send kids to grade school and not allow them to hug.
Claims it is near Impossible to make kids distance.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Well, now you have identified a place to perhaps invest some money! You may actually be onto something here Money172375.
> 
> Buy a couple of used riding mowers and a trailer to haul them around on. Remove the mowing attachment and put on a snow blowing attachment. Add chains to the rear drive wheels and you are ready to go. They will easily do any driveway in short order. Find a couple of unemployed guys looking for a job and buy a new cellphone for the business. Put up flyers around your area specifically aimed at Snowbirds. ie.
> 
> "NOT SNOWBIRDING THIS YEAR?
> Many snowbirds will stay home this winter and are not equipped to deal with snow in their driveway. Let us do it for you for less than it will cost you to equip yourself and risk a heart attack.
> Call XXX-XXXX for a free quote at less than 8 CENTS a square foot."
> 
> Buying used mowers, snowblowers and trailer should be doable under $10k. Employees paid per driveway. Operating costs quite low. Price per sq. ft. of driveway cleared would be easy enough to work out.
> 
> Some numbers. What's an Annual Snow Removal Contract Cost?
> 
> LOL, maybe you could stay home this winter and make money.


There are a lot of outdoor workers with landscaping companies that cut grass in the summer and remove snow in the winter.
Most of them are playing a horrible low margin game, and they're barely afloat.
It's a commodity service, unless you offer a premium experience.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> There are a lot of outdoor workers with landscaping companies that cut grass in the summer and remove snow in the winter.
> Most of them are playing a horrible low margin game, and they're barely afloat.
> It's a commodity service, unless you offer a premium experience.


I like to look for an 'absolute advantage' of some kind in a given market MrMatt. While it usually refers to being able to produce a greater quantity, it can also be applied to producing a greater quality of goods or service.

If you do a little research on residential snow removal services you will find a great disparity in reviews of such services with a lot of complaints of varying kinds. To produce a 'premium experience' as you call it would not be difficult to achieve at all.


----------



## Longtimeago

So where does anyone think we are heading with the virus?

If I were to predict where we will be 6 months from now, barring the existence of an effective vaccine and/or an effective cure, I will predict that we will have regressed. Perhaps only to a 'stage 2 re-opening' in some places and perhaps even farther back in some places. 

Just look at Australia who have now had to revert to a total lockdown in Melbourne. They're back to where we were in March.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/melbourne-covid-19-curfew-1.5672721


----------



## sags

If someone wants to operate a landscaping/snow removal business legally it gets a lot more complicated and expensive than just buying the tools needed.

Employer/employee contributions to WSIB, CPP, EI, income taxes, municipal business licences, commercial and liability insurance (if you hope to work at condos or institutions or use a vehicle for work) all come to mind.

An owner would have to keep track of all spending and make the appropriate tax filings and contributions as well. They may need to hire an accountant.

Or........you can just buy the tools, work solely on residential lawns and hope nobody finds out.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> I like to look for an 'absolute advantage' of some kind in a given market MrMatt. While it usually refers to being able to produce a greater quantity, it can also be applied to producing a greater quality of goods or service.
> 
> If you do a little research on residential snow removal services you will find a great disparity in reviews of such services with a lot of complaints of varying kinds. To produce a 'premium experience' as you call it would not be difficult to achieve at all.


Getting someone to pay for it is hard.
When most businesses hire to remove snow, they just want the legal protection for due diligence.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Getting someone to pay for it is hard.
> When most businesses hire to remove snow, they just want the legal protection for due diligence.


You do realize we are talking about residential service right MrMatt? Money172375 was talking about 'his neighbourhood' where apparently there are a lot of snowbirds living. Let's not make this more complicated than it is.

A bunch of homeowners who go south every winter and do not even own a snow shovel. That's the supposed market he was talking about.


----------



## calm

In this investigation, it became clear to us that there are four principal differences between the Covid-19 response of countries with a socialist government and countries in the capitalist order:
Science Versus Hallucination
Image:


https://consortiumnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20200708_Graphic_EN.jpg


By Vijay Prashad
July 17, 2020








CoronaShock and Socialism


Español Português हिन्दी CoronaShock is a term that refers to how a virus struck the world with such gripping force; it refers to how the social order in the bourgeois state crumbled, while the social order in the socialist parts of the world appeared more resilient. This is the third in a...




www.thetricontinental.org


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> You do realize we are talking about residential service right MrMatt? Money172375 was talking about 'his neighbourhood' where apparently there are a lot of snowbirds living. Let's not make this more complicated than it is.
> 
> A bunch of homeowners who go south every winter and do not even own a snow shovel. That's the supposed market he was talking about.


Residential contracts are a huge pain. You might be able to pull it off, but again it's a really tough business.


----------



## calm

Most people who hire out snow removal are tied into a yearly contract which includes landscaping.
If this is not done, then there are plenty of young kids knocking on doors asking to shovel the driveway.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Am I the only one here wondering what those snowbirds did before, when they actually went south for the winter? If there is now to be a spike in demand for snow removal services, that would suggest that, in the past, they went south and said to hell with it, just let the snow pile up as and how it likes. 

When I lived in snow country and bogged off for the winter, I paid for snow removal on an ongoing basis; removal I did myself when home. Driveways, sidewalks and porches covered with undisturbed snow were like hanging out a neon sign announcing the place is unoccupied, so please break and enter at will.


----------



## Money172375

Mukhang pera said:


> Am I the only one here wondering what those snowbirds did before, when they actually went south for the winter? If there is now to be a spike in demand for snow removal services, that would suggest that, in the past, they went south and said to hell with it, just let the snow pile up as and how it likes.
> 
> When I lived in snow country and bogged off for the winter, I paid for snow removal on an ongoing basis; removal I did myself when home. Driveways, sidewalks and porches covered with undisturbed snow were like hanging out a neon sign announcing the place is unoccupied, so please break and enter at will.


most in my neighbourhood let it pile up.


----------



## sags

Due to climate change, our winters don't "pile up" snow much anymore. It snows for a few days......melts........snows again..........on and off all winter.

Our landlord has a full service maintenance crew with all the machines. I only saw them out in force a few times last year.

They lay off a lot of staff in the winter. Living in a mature area, they are really busy through the year cutting grass, edging, trimming bushes and trees etc.

In the winter......not so much.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Showing my age, I suppose. When I lived in Toronto, snow would start to stay on the ground before Christmas and would stay that way until into March. Schools would flood playgrounds and create ice rinks. Almost always a "hockey rink" with boards around it and a "pleasure rink" with snow piled around it. That was always the way at my elementary school, Blythwood. The city did the same in many parks. The ice would last from December-March. I guess it has been a long time since it was possible to have a natural ice rink in southern Ontario.

But now, too, I suppose, the "former" snowbirds need not worry about snow removal. Wait for 24 hours and it will be gone. No need to pay for removal that nature will handle.


----------



## andrewf

Mukhang pera said:


> Showing my age, I suppose. When I lived in Toronto, snow would start to stay on the ground before Christmas and would stay that way until into March. Schools would flood playgrounds and create ice rinks. Almost always a "hockey rink" with boards around it and a "pleasure rink" with snow piled around it. That was always the way at my elementary school, Blythwood. The city did the same in many parks. The ice would last from December-March. I guess it has been a long time since it was possible to have a natural ice rink in southern Ontario.
> 
> But now, too, I suppose, the "former" snowbirds need not worry about snow removal. Wait for 24 hours and it will be gone. No need to pay for removal that nature will handle.


Yeah, that definitely doesn't happen anymore. Often Toronto barely gets snow in December, and most years snow only lasts a couple weeks except in snowbanks (piled up from ploughs) before it melts.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> Most people who hire out snow removal are tied into a yearly contract which includes landscaping.
> If this is not done, then there are plenty of young kids knocking on doors asking to shovel the driveway.


Well, we've lived here over 10 years now and I have yet to see a young kid knocking on our door asking to do anything. They expect everything to come to them these days calm including enough allowance from their parents to meet their needs.


----------



## Money172375

My son does lawns and shovels snow. He helps re-build shore walls and carry firewood He is picky on who he takes on as a customer. He ”expects” nothing except not being judged by people who’ve never met him. 

they’re not All entitled.


----------



## calm

I used to admire the kids who knocked on my door and excitedly asked to shovel the driveway.
They looked so happy that it snowed.
Reminded me so much when I was a kid.

I used to go around and collect Christmas trees on Boxing Day and then stand them up in a vacant lot next to our house and put a for sale sign on them.
I got pretty frustrated when there was not a line up to buy the used trees.
I made more money shoveling driveways.


----------



## Retired Peasant

Longtimeago said:


> I have yet to see a young kid knocking on our door asking to do anything.


I wonder why. Stop and ponder it for a bit; a possible reason might come to you.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> My son does lawns and shovels snow. He helps re-build shore walls and carry firewood He is picky on who he takes on as a customer. He ”expects” nothing except not being judged by people who’ve never met him.
> 
> they’re not All entitled.


There are exceptions to every rule.


----------



## Longtimeago

Retired Peasant said:


> I wonder why. Stop and ponder it for a bit; a possible reason might come to you.


If you have something to say then say it. Otherwise crawl back into your hole.


----------



## calm

How Many People in the U.S. Are Hospitalized With COVID-19? Who Knows?
The Trump administration told hospitals to stop reporting data to the CDC, and report it to HHS instead. Vice President Mike Pence said the information would continue to be released publicly. It hasn’t worked out as promised.
By Charles Ornstein
July 31, 2020








How Many People in the U.S. Are Hospitalized With COVID-19? Who Knows?


The Trump administration told hospitals to stop reporting data to the CDC, and report it to HHS instead. Vice President Mike Pence said the information would continue to be released publicly. It hasn’t worked out as promised.




www.propublica.org


----------



## sags

In many States, the doctors, nurses, hospital administrators say they are swamped with cases.

Opening up the economy puts more people in the emergency rooms from car accidents or some other injuries.

Add in the normal health issues........heart attacks, strokes, etc and the hospitals can't cope.

Trump and Pence can play games or say whatever they want, but Americans see what is happening locally and know it is very bad.

That is why Trump is losing in GOP held States. Unless Biden self implodes (quite possible apparently) he will become the President.

What will be interesting is the aftermath of 250,000 people descending on Sturgis, South Dakota in close contact with each other and not wearing masks.

The party will be over and the people gone home by the time COVID symptoms erupt. It could cause major outbreaks all over the country.

It will get worse before it gets better.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> ...It will get worse before it gets better.


 ... if Junior is really smart, he should keep the borders closed until the Dump south of us is out of office so the new (and real) POTUS can figure out what to do (or right thing to do). 

In the meantime, God help the poor Americans...


----------



## calm

There must be thousands and thousands of American's crossing Canadian borders each and every day.
Canada is the 51st State.
Are we putting ankle bracelets on them if they drive a truck/delivery into the country so we know where they visited or stayed overnight?
Is there not a huge lineup at border crossings? (I don't live near a border.)


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> There must be thousands and thousands of American's crossing Canadian borders each and every day.
> Canada is the 51st State.
> Are we putting ankle bracelets on them if they drive a truck/delivery into the country so we know where they visited or stayed overnight?
> Is there not a huge lineup at border crossings? (I don't live near a border.)


I haven't heard any news at any time that indicates that USA truck drivers crossing the border are bringing the virus into Canada. I think they are all as concerned about getting the virus as anyone. The same for Canadian truckers going into the USA and returning.


https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/nation-world/national/article244354917.html


----------



## sags

Last night the weather forecast was for sunny and hot all day.

Early this morning it was cloudy, dark and a light rain.........the weather app said it was sunny and hot.

An hour later it started pouring and the weather app said it was a light rain that would stop at 11 a.m.

It is now 11 a.m. and there is a wicked thunderstorm and pouring rain. The weather app says thunderstorms and 90% chance of rain.

I would say.........there is a 100% chance of rain since it is still pouring torrential rain.

My point is that we can't even say what the weather is going to be an hour from now........or apparently as it happens, so maybe some of those who question the "experts" have a legitimate point.

Dr. Fauci is now telling Americans not to get their hopes up for a vaccine, after months of enthusiastically telling them he was "confident" there would be at least by 2021.

If you can't depend on the experts, who can you depend on ?

P.S. I called my son to see how they are doing, and he is stuck in the middle of installing a fence somewhere in the pouring rain.

_What is this....I checked the weather_.........he says. He is soaking wet and heading home..........people depend on the experts.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> ... If you can't depend on the experts, who can you depend on ? ...


 ... yourself, including the so-called "experts". Because next thing you'll be told is "they're humans too".

Only difference between the experts and the non-experts are that they the experts are paid handsomely for their so-called expertise and you aren't as you're considered the amateur. That's how "equal"  our world has become. Not too worry on this inequality as all humans (including those who aren't afraid of death) die eventually unless them experts have a magic formula for immortality.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Dr. Fauci is now telling Americans not to get their hopes up for a vaccine, after months of enthusiastically telling them he was "confident" there would be at least by 2021.
> 
> If you can't depend on the experts, who can you depend on ?


Common sense, available information and multiple experts.
ALWAYS see out the contrary opinion.

For example the COVID19 vaccine, Consensus was 18 months at the earliest, which would just barely squeeked into 2021. Contrary opinion was longer or possibly never, since they've never made a safe and effective Human Coronavirus vaccine.

The only people surprised that we might have trouble getting a COVID19 vaccine in less than 24 months are those who didn't seek out the alternative opinion.

That's the problem when you live in an echo chamber.


----------



## calm

I thought that Dr. Fauci was explaining that the vaccine may not be 100 percent perfect.
It may only protect for a very short time.
And will be ready in Early 2021.
Did I miss something?


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Common sense, available information and multiple experts.
> ALWAYS see out the contrary opinion.
> 
> For example the COVID19 vaccine, Consensus was 18 months at the earliest, which would just barely squeeked into 2021. Contrary opinion was longer or possibly never, since they've never made a safe and effective Human Coronavirus vaccine.
> 
> The only people surprised that we might have trouble getting a COVID19 vaccine in less than 24 months are those who didn't seek out the alternative opinion.
> 
> That's the problem when you live in an echo chamber.


If you seek too many expert opinions, you end up with conflicting opinions and no reliable guidance. Too many cooks spoil the soup, as they say.

I think Trump is a good example of what that leads to. He listens to the experts, then he listens to Fox News hosts, and then he listens to his supporters.

It isn't surprising his messaging appears confused and erratic.


----------



## sags

If the "consensus" was that it would take at least well into 2021 or later to find a vaccine (if ever), it begs the question on why we are opening up the economy in mid-2020.

If the virus is going to be around for at least that long, the openings are premature and will likely cause another shutdown.......which would be an economic disaster.

Companies and businesses incur costs, such as hiring labor and buying inventory each time they open and close, and can't afford to do it multiple times.

It may have been better for them to have remained closed with government support.


----------



## sags

calm said:


> I thought that Dr. Fauci was explaining that the vaccine may not be 100 percent perfect.
> It may only protect for a very short time.
> And will be ready in Early 2021.
> Did I miss something?


Fauci has said that, but in other interviews he also says that health officials don't believe the virus will ever be eradicated.

_While the virus will not disappear, it’s possible world leaders and public health officials could work to bring the virus down to “low levels,” the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said during an interview with the TB Alliance.

“I think with a combination of good public health measures, a degree of global herd immunity and *a good vaccine, which I do hope and feel cautiously optimistic that we will get*, I think when we put all three of those together, we will get control of this, whether it’s *this year or next year.* I’m not certain,” he said.
But, he added, “I don’t really see us eradicating it.” _



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/dr-anthony-fauci-warns-the-coronavirus-wont-ever-be-totally-eradicated.html


----------



## calm

sags said:


> Fauci has said that, but in other interviews he also says that health officials don't believe the virus will ever be eradicated.


Yes. That is what I understood when Fauci mentioned only a short period of immunity.
May need to vaccinate again in 6 months as an example.
Thus ..... It will never be eradicated.
--------
I believe that the politicians are spoon feeding us information in an attempt to calm our fears of the unknown.
Talk about opening schools is an example of that.
The virus becomes more virulent in the fall and we are going to open schools?
-----
I am into the economic effects of this virus.
I am tired of reading how many people died.
I want to know how any city with a population exceeding one million is managing to survive? Nobody is window shopping on main street.


----------



## sags

The economics of the future are unknown, but we do know that Canada is faring better with the COVID pandemic and is in a better financial position than most other countries to continue to battle the virus.

If Canada fails..........it may be the least of our worries. There isn't much point in pointing to Canada's debt or economy in isolation. The whole world is suffering the same fate. If Canada fails.......many other countries such as the USA would already be on their knees.

The solution is the only solution we have at our disposal.

Government continues to support people and the economy, while the search for a vaccine or effective treatments continues.

The bottom line is the government is going to spend whatever it takes.........end of story.


----------



## calm

sags said:


> The economics of the future are unknown, but we do know that Canada is faring better with the COVID pandemic and is in a better financial position than most other countries to continue to battle the virus.


I would not want you to think that I am worried .....
I am not at all worried. In fact I am kind of excited. I love the intrigue.
I am too old to worry.
I got my cash in my mattress and my gold in the backyard. 
I worry a little about how my kids are going to handle such a change in lifestyle.
But other than that ..... Economics is just a form of entertainment.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> If the "consensus" was that it would take at least well into 2021 or later to find a vaccine (if ever), it begs the question on why we are opening up the economy in mid-2020.
> 
> If the virus is going to be around for at least that long, the openings are premature and will likely cause another shutdown.......which would be an economic disaster.
> 
> Companies and businesses incur costs, such as hiring labor and buying inventory each time they open and close, and can't afford to do it multiple times.
> 
> It may have been better for them to have remained closed with government support.


It's all a risk tradeoff.

Also with the low number of cases support for indefinite lockdown falls. Some experts, like Dr Tam have said that even with a vaccine we might need to maintain restrictions for 2-3 years.

You've got to be pretty oblivious to the cost of a lockdown if you think that it's reasonable to keep this up for 2-3 years.
It's not Ebola.


----------



## calm

Sweden, Which Never Had Lockdown, Sees COVID-19 Cases Plummet as Rest of Europe Suffers Spike

Amid fears over a potential second wave of the novel coronavirus across Europe, new infections in Sweden, where full lockdown measures were not implemented, have mostly declined since late June.
The number of new cases per 100,000 people in Sweden reported over the last 14 days since July 29 dropped by 54 percent from the figure reported over 14 days prior to then, according to the latest report Wednesday from the World Health Organization (WHO).
By Soo Kim
July 30, 2020








Sweden, Which Never Had Lockdown, Sees COVID-19 Cases Plummet


The seven-day rolling average of daily new deaths in Sweden has also been declining for months.




www.newsweek.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The economics of the future are unknown, but we do know that Canada is faring better with the COVID pandemic and is in a better financial position than most other countries to continue to battle the virus.
> 
> If Canada fails..........it may be the least of our worries. There isn't much point in pointing to Canada's debt or economy in isolation. The whole world is suffering the same fate. If Canada fails.......many other countries such as the USA would already be on their knees.
> 
> The solution is the only solution we have at our disposal.
> 
> Government continues to support people and the economy, while the search for a vaccine or effective treatments continues.
> 
> The bottom line is the government is going to spend whatever it takes.........end of story.


I agree, we're doing very well by global standards.

I agree we should spend whatever it takes to get through this, but that isn't a license to print money and waste it.
We should take this opportunity to make sure we're as stable and sustainable as possible and reduce future pain.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> Sweden, Which Never Had Lockdown, Sees COVID-19 Cases Plummet as Rest of Europe Suffers Spike
> 
> Amid fears over a potential second wave of the novel coronavirus across Europe, new infections in Sweden, where full lockdown measures were not implemented, have mostly declined since late June.
> The number of new cases per 100,000 people in Sweden reported over the last 14 days since July 29 dropped by 54 percent from the figure reported over 14 days prior to then, according to the latest report Wednesday from the World Health Organization (WHO).
> By Soo Kim
> July 30, 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sweden, Which Never Had Lockdown, Sees COVID-19 Cases Plummet
> 
> 
> The seven-day rolling average of daily new deaths in Sweden has also been declining for months.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com


What's your point?

Their death rate per capital exceeds even the USA and Brazil. Perhaps you need to ask yourself why their number of new cases is now falling. 








Did Sweden's coronavirus strategy succeed or fail?


Despite global criticism, Sweden has seen a drop in serious Covid cases without ever having a lockdown.



www.bbc.com





To compare Canada take a look here.








How Canada compares to other countries on COVID-19 cases and deaths


While Canada has done well compared to countries like the U.S. and the U.K. in containing COVID-19, rates of infection and deaths are higher than in many similar western democracies. Why?




theconversation.com





Here in Canada, our biggest failure has been in our Long Term Care homes. They account for 82% of ALL our Covid deaths. That's a disgrace. If you remove that group, we have done incredibly well otherwise at keeping people from dying. Sweden has done incredibly badly at keeping people alive. What is it that you think the goal is supposed to be calm?


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> What's your point?
> 
> Their death rate per capital exceeds even the USA and Brazil. Perhaps you need to ask yourself why their number of new cases is now falling.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Did Sweden's coronavirus strategy succeed or fail?
> 
> 
> Despite global criticism, Sweden has seen a drop in serious Covid cases without ever having a lockdown.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> To compare Canada take a look here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Canada compares to other countries on COVID-19 cases and deaths
> 
> 
> While Canada has done well compared to countries like the U.S. and the U.K. in containing COVID-19, rates of infection and deaths are higher than in many similar western democracies. Why?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here in Canada, our biggest failure has been in our Long Term Care homes. They account for 82% of ALL our Covid deaths. That's a disgrace. If you remove that group, we have done incredibly well otherwise at keeping people from dying. Sweden has done incredibly badly at keeping people alive. What is it that you think the goal is supposed to be calm?


The reason most Canadian COVID 19 deaths were in LTC is multifold.

1. Long Term care is a disaster. Nobody wants to pay for it, and quite honestly we can't afford massive amounts of care here. Currently in Ontario we have 2.7hrs/day of personal care, that's basically 0.5 full time workers per resident (7*2.7= 20hrs/wk). This gets expensive fast. 
That neglects that some of these places don't even have AC, or proper staffing levels to begin with.

2. COVID19 kills old people, particularly those with existing health conditions. We have lots of those people.


3. We have longer life expectancies than the UK or the US, because we do better keeping old sick people alive. Lots of those people died.


----------



## sags

Ford has announced a commission into the LTA home situation. Many are not pleased and want a full and transparent public inquiry.

Ford announced mandatory air conditioning and building new LTA homes. It was his government that halted all new LTA construction a couple of years ago.

The Ford government also relaxed annual inspections of LTA homes. That is well documented and his government defended it.

The situation isn't all Doug Ford's fault, but he certainly has played a part in it. Past governments of all political stripes also played a role.

I think the first thing a commission or inquiry should do is to take a deep dive into where all the money is going.

When they pack 4 seniors into one room........they are making a lot of money from that room. What is it paying for ?

I suspect that a lot of it is going to privately owned companies and corporations in the form of profits.

It likely also pays the salaries for a lot of people (lawyers, accountants, vice presidents, presidents, chief of this and chief of that) that has nothing to do with hands on patient care. There are too many bean counters and desk jockeys involved.

The bottom line is they are siphoning off too much on administration and profit and not spending nearly enough on direct care.


----------



## sags

On the subject of privately owned LTA homes, I would take any pleas of poverty due to the cost of labor with a spoonful of salt.

My dad knew a woman who owned several LTA homes and she had her husband listed as an administrator at a healthy salary.

He never went to the nursing home. He spent all day hanging out in a strip club.

Who knows how many family members of owners are being paid as "employees" and never work a day in the place.

They gotta go deep in this investigation or they will learn nothing.


----------



## calm

I just read a statistic for U.S. .....

June 30th, 196 dead every hour ..... One death every 18 seconds.

August 05, One person died every 80 seconds


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ford has announced a commission into the LTA home situation. Many are not pleased and want a full and transparent public inquiry.
> 
> Ford announced mandatory air conditioning and building new LTA homes. It was his government that halted all new LTA construction a couple of years ago.
> 
> The Ford government also relaxed annual inspections of LTA homes. That is well documented and his government defended it.
> 
> The situation isn't all Doug Ford's fault, but he certainly has played a part in it. Past governments of all political stripes also played a role.
> 
> I think the first thing a commission or inquiry should do is to take a deep dive into where all the money is going.
> 
> When they pack 4 seniors into one room........they are making a lot of money from that room. What is it paying for ?
> 
> I suspect that a lot of it is going to privately owned companies and corporations in the form of profits.
> 
> It likely also pays the salaries for a lot of people (lawyers, accountants, vice presidents, presidents, chief of this and chief of that) that has nothing to do with hands on patient care. There are too many bean counters and desk jockeys involved.
> 
> The bottom line is they are siphoning off too much on administration and profit and not spending nearly enough on direct care.


Please support your claim that Doug Ford cut inspections. I believe you're making this up

Also "all that money", $150/day $100 of which is nursing and personal care.
That's not very much money.


----------



## sags

Ford eliminating inspections is public knowledge and readily available on the internet.

As to the money...........where do you get those numbers from ?

_The fees for nursing homes are regulated, costing in Ontario per month *$1,674.14* for a basic room: *$1,947.89* for a semi-private room and *$2,274.86* for a private room. The short-stay or temporary stay at a home costs *$1,083.75* per month, according to 2012 figures from the health ministry, the latest available. _

I don't know where you get $100 a day for nursing care. That isn't likely in a home with 100 residents and 1 nurse.


----------



## calm

According to federal data the average annual cost per prisoner in federal prisons is about $115,000




__





cost "prisoner" + one year - Google Search






www.google.com





With the average annual costs of nursing home care being between $89,297 – $100,375 it appears that assisted living typically averages about half of the cost of assisted living options.




__





cost "patient" + one year + retirement home - Google Search






www.google.com


----------



## bgc_fan

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/seniors-homes-inspections-1.5532585

Instead of proactive comprehensive inspections, they only dealt with complaints starting in 2019.

So for 626 homes the following had the resident quality inspections (RQIs): 
2017: 85% 
2018: 60%
2019: 9 homes (1.4%)

The car analogy would be skipping the regular maintenance and inspection schedules and just waiting for breakdowns before doing anything.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ford eliminating inspections is public knowledge and readily available on the internet.
> 
> As to the money...........where do you get those numbers from ?
> 
> _The fees for nursing homes are regulated, costing in Ontario per month *$1,674.14* for a basic room: *$1,947.89* for a semi-private room and *$2,274.86* for a private room. The short-stay or temporary stay at a home costs *$1,083.75* per month, according to 2012 figures from the health ministry, the latest available. _
> 
> I don't know where you get $100 a day for nursing care. That isn't likely in a home with 100 residents and 1 nurse.


It is not public knowledge, and it's so "readily available" that you can't even substantiate it.

I got my information from Long term care.
Facts and Figures

Where did you get your data from? Why didn't you include a link?
2012 is quite old, why didn't you use more recent data, such as the 2019 data linked to above?


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> I got my information from Long term care.
> Facts and Figures


You do realize that has nothing to do with what the homes charge right? That's what the province provides. It even says that the residents pay for a portion of the costs.

Add: It points out the actual co-payment amounts, and links to this site:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/get-help-paying-long-term-care

Accommodation rates (July 1, 2019)

Type of accommodationDaily rateMonthly rateLong-stay Basic1$62.18 (a)$1,891.31 (b)Long-stay Semi-private2$74.96 (Basic plus a maximum of $12.78)$2,280.04Long-stay Private2$88.82 (Basic plus a maximum of $26.64)$2,701.61Short-stay$40.24N/A


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> You do realize that has nothing to do with what the homes charge right? That's what the province provides. It even says that the residents pay for a portion of the costs.
> 
> Add: It points out the actual co-payment amounts, and links to this site:
> https://www.ontario.ca/page/get-help-paying-long-term-care
> 
> Accommodation rates (July 1, 2019)
> 
> Type of accommodationDaily rateMonthly rateLong-stay Basic1$62.18 (a)$1,891.31 (b)Long-stay Semi-private2$74.96 (Basic plus a maximum of $12.78)$2,280.04Long-stay Private2$88.82 (Basic plus a maximum of $26.64)$2,701.61Short-stay$40.24N/A


It's how much is allocated for the care of the individual person. 
I don't think $100/day is a lot for personal care.
There isn't a huge amount of money there.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say about room rates, but they seem pretty reasonable to me.
Where is the massive amount of money?


Regarding inspections.
I agree with the analogy, they're doing the same amount of service/inspections, just they're focusing on the critical concerns. I have 2 points there.
1. You didn't provide evidence that the number of inspections dropped.
2. I think while it would be nice to do more inspections, if you have a limit I think it's more important to address the critical problems. When 2 people call 911, respond to the call where someones life is at risk, your stolen car can wait.


----------



## calm

TV-Land said that Vaccine company named Moderna needs 30 thousand volunteers and only 45 hundred showed up. This will mean that vaccine will not happen until January/February earliest.








Moderna's clinical trial numbers show there's 'no way' Trump can have a vaccine by Election Day | CNN


Contrary to his predictions, President Trump won't have a coronavirus vaccine ready by Election Day, vaccine experts tell CNN after reviewing data from Moderna, the first company to begin its Phase 3 clinical trials of a coronavirus vaccine in the United States.




www.cnn.com


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> It's how much is allocated for the care of the individual person.
> I don't think $100/day is a lot for personal care.
> There isn't a huge amount of money there.
> 
> I'm not sure what you're trying to say about room rates, but they seem pretty reasonable to me.
> Where is the massive amount of money?


I don't think we're looking at the numbers the same way. 

Provincial funding for long-term care in 2018:

$4.28 billion (7% of the overall provincial health budget)
$149.95 per resident, per day ($54,730 per year)
Approximately $100.91 per day for nursing and personal care (such as assistance with personal hygiene, bathing, eating, and toileting)
$12.06 per day for specialized therapies, recreational programs, and support services
$9.54 per day for raw food (ingredients used to prepare meals)
The province is proving $150 per resident per day.
The room rates is what the facilities charge the resident. 
Using the basic rate of $62, the facility is getting a total of $212 per resident, or a little over $6000/monthly, or $72k/annually per resident who is staying in the basic accommodations.

Average salary of personal support worker in Ontario is $39k: Long Term Care salary - Average salary, so there is a lot of buffer to pay for other operating expenses and profits. Especially when I doubt the ratio of worker to resident is 1:1, and more like 1:15 or 1:30 at night. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/ontario-long-term-care-facility-psw-shortage-1.5003312



MrMatt said:


> Regarding inspections.
> I agree with the analogy, they're doing the same amount of service/inspections, just they're focusing on the critical concerns. I have 2 points there.
> 1. You didn't provide evidence that the number of inspections dropped.
> 2. I think while it would be nice to do more inspections, if you have a limit I think it's more important to address the critical problems. When 2 people call 911, respond to the call where someones life is at risk, your stolen car can wait.


I provided the evidence that comprehensive inspections dropped significantly. Responding to complaints isn't an inspection. You can't equate an inspection where someone complained that the washrooms are in bad shape vs a comprehensive look at the whole facility and evaluating practices. An RQI is unannounced, whereas responding to a complaint allows the facility to paint over the complaint and show that things were taken care of. It's like getting the low oil indicator lighting up and then you refill it. That's not the same scale of inspection as looking at the whole car and then finding that your brakes are starting to rust.

Here's a comparison of the 2 types of reports for the same facility:
RQI (2018): http://publicreporting.ltchomes.net/en-ca/File.aspx?RecID=19880&FacilityID=20011
Follow-up (2019): http://publicreporting.ltchomes.net/en-ca/File.aspx?RecID=21275&FacilityID=20011

You can't say that the two are equivalent.

All reports are available here: Search Selections for Long-Term Care homes


----------



## Eclectic12

calm said:


> There must be thousands and thousands of American's crossing Canadian borders each and every day.
> Canada is the 51st State ...


Don't know about the daily rate for for a week in June, it was 170,988 at land crossings with 104,247 being truckers.
If it's all even (which I doubt) for each day then it's something like 24,426 or so - a day.



calm said:


> Are we putting ankle bracelets on them if they drive a truck/delivery into the country so we know where they visited or stayed overnight?


Maybe if Trump signs an executive order to put ankle bracelets on Canadian truckers entering the US. 




calm said:


> .... Is there not a huge lineup at border crossings? (I don't live near a border.)


Maybe you are memerised by the "thousands and thousands a day" so that you are missing the big picture?

Why would there be a line up at the border when in 2019 for a similar period 1,217,845 people crossed into Canada?

This year is something 14% of what last year's crossing was, where non-truckers made up less than 1:1 where last year it was 10:1.


Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

I generally agree with your points. I disagree with your conclusions.
When you consider that the rate is if nursing and psw, and overhead is 50%wages.
Also in Ontario they currently have 2.7hr/day, which is a 1 PSW to 2 patient ratio.
Also it's PSW + nursing. So about 1/2 the cost goes right to salary of the caregivers.

The other half is the facility, operations, foodprep, capex etc. 
They're not swimming in cash. Honestly knowing the numbers are that bad, I don't think it's a market worth investing in.

Secondly, inspections. The claim was they cut inspections. They didn't.
Now I agree they should do more inspections, and we both agree they're prioritizing incidents over annual inspections. But to say they cut the number of inspections, well that's factually not true.
I previously posted the data, in the same thread where I also posted that same link to the inspection reports.


----------



## calm

I was not concerned with the comparison of normal times and Covid-19 times.
This thread mentioned that we needed to get control of the border to prevent the spread of the virus.
I am saying that it is impossible.
There are far too many people crossing in trucks making deliveries.


----------



## sags

I don't know where Mr. Matt is getting his numbers from.

In Ontario, even nursing homes with hundreds of residents only require 1 RN on duty.

The PSW to patient ratio is often 32 residents to 1 PSW or worse.

Ontario pays the nursing and care costs but where are the nurses and qualified caregivers ? The above ratios don't reveal an emphasis on nursing or care.

The resident pays the cost of the rooms.........around $2000 a month on top of the nursing care costs. Put 4 people in a room and it generates $8,000 a month.

Where is all that money going ? Into the pockets of private owners is where. No wonder big corporations like Revera have moved into the business.

A story today in the Globe and Mail..........









The Globe and Mail: Canadian, World, Politics and Business News & Analysis


The Globe and Mail offers the most authoritative news in Canada, featuring national and international news




www.theglobeandmail.com





Hopefully a deep dive into the finances and allocation of spending will reveal what is really going on.

I wonder why the Ontario government and some people are resisting a full public inquiry. Maybe they are afraid of the truth coming out.

Hey Mr. Ford........if you have nothing to hide open up to a full public inquiry.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I don't know where Mr. Matt is getting his numbers from.


Left wing sources, I assume they're more critical than right wing sources.









What Does it Cost to Care?


The COVID-19 pandemic has made the holes in our social safety net and the failures in our social infrastructure painfully obvious. A horrific example of these failures is the impact of the pandemic in




www.policyalternatives.ca






> In Ontario, even nursing homes with hundreds of residents only require 1 RN on duty.
> 
> The PSW to patient ratio is often 32 residents to 1 PSW or worse.


I'm talking about long term care homes.
Please source the 1:32 ratio. 
How many caregivers do you need in the middle of the night?



> A story today in the Globe and Mail..........
> 
> URL The Globe and Mail: Canadian, World, Politics and Business News & Analysis


You didn't link to an article.
Also G&M is paywalled, so most people can't read it anyway.


Accusing me of making up numbers is pretty rich, it's one thing to disagree with my conclusions.
But to suggest my numbers are wrong, without any evidence or even contradictory facts is pretty sad.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> I generally agree with your points. I disagree with your conclusions.
> When you consider that the rate is if nursing and psw, and overhead is 50%wages.
> Also in Ontario they currently have 2.7hr/day, which is a 1 PSW to 2 patient ratio.
> Also it's PSW + nursing. So about 1/2 the cost goes right to salary of the caregivers.


Are you getting the 2.7 hr/day from this report? http://www.ontariohealthcoalition.ca/wp-content/uploads/FINAL-LTC-REPORT.pdf

Then you would have noticed that it quoted a previous study in 2008 had recommended 4 hr/day.

As for financials, here's Chartwell's: CHARTWELL RETIREMENT RESIDENCES (CSH-UN.TO) Income Statement - Yahoo Finance

Like any regulated industry, there's the problem of legislation capping the amount that can be charged. 



MrMatt said:


> Secondly, inspections. The claim was they cut inspections. They didn't.
> Now I agree they should do more inspections, and we both agree they're prioritizing incidents over annual inspections. But to say they cut the number of inspections, well that's factually not true.
> I previously posted the data, in the same thread where I also posted that same link to the inspection reports.


Here's the thing. If you want to claim that they didn't cut inspections because you consider a follow-up an inspection, then that's what you and the government wants to believe. But there is a qualitative difference between going in for a one hour check to make sure they enacted what they were supposed to do, versus going into the facility and looking for problems.


----------



## sags

Despite all that has happened in the homes, the Ford government has still not restarted the full audit inspections.

It appears he hopes that naming a commission and putting it off until some years into the future will push the problem away from his doorstep.

Wrong........there are huge lawsuits that are going to bring everything into the light. People want answers......not more BS.









LEVY: Long-term care homes hit hard by COVID still rife with issues


A recent ministry inspection report shows the long-term care home with the highest provincial death rate from COVID has continued to fail to implement proper…




torontosun.com


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Are you getting the 2.7 hr/day from this report? http://www.ontariohealthcoalition.ca/wp-content/uploads/FINAL-LTC-REPORT.pdf
> 
> Then you would have noticed that it quoted a previous study in 2008 had recommended 4 hr/day.
> 
> As for financials, here's Chartwell's: CHARTWELL RETIREMENT RESIDENCES (CSH-UN.TO) Income Statement - Yahoo Finance
> 
> Like any regulated industry, there's the problem of legislation capping the amount that can be charged.
> 
> 
> 
> Here's the thing. If you want to claim that they didn't cut inspections because you consider a follow-up an inspection, then that's what you and the government wants to believe. But there is a qualitative difference between going in for a one hour check to make sure they enacted what they were supposed to do, versus going into the facility and looking for problems.


Yeah, they didn't follow someones recommendations.
I recommend 24/hr a day personal concierge service, they didn't follow that recommendation either.

The point is my data is likely correct, and the 1:32 ratio is not supported.
I claimed that nobody provided data that there were significantly fewer inspections. Nobody has, the closest we have is your data on a single type of inspection. Myself I think there are different types of inspections and you can't complain "inspections" are down, without considering how many of what inspections are being done.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Despite all that has happened in the homes, the Ford government has still not restarted the full audit inspections.
> 
> It appears he hopes that naming a commission and putting it off until some years into the future will push the problem away from his doorstep.
> 
> Wrong........there are huge lawsuits that are going to bring everything into the light. People want answers......not more BS.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LEVY: Long-term care homes hit hard by COVID still rife with issues
> 
> 
> A recent ministry inspection report shows the long-term care home with the highest provincial death rate from COVID has continued to fail to implement proper…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> torontosun.com


Where will the staff and money come from?
In case you didn't realize Ford was literally in the middle of revamping long term care when this hit.

As far as lawsuits, good luck, they're going to waste a lot of money, the lawyers will get rich, and even less money will be available to take care of people.


----------



## sags

"Revamping" is an interesting way of describing Ford's actions.

He eliminated regular audits, halted future facilities being built, and eliminated the scheduled $1 an hour increase to minimum wage workers in the homes.

We will learn more of the details in the future, which it appears Ford is trying to avoid by appointing a commission for which he sets the agenda, rules, and financial support and by putting the initiation of it off into the future.

Ford could be gone before any commission issues it's findings.


----------



## sags

People aren't interested in conducting a cost/reward analysis when it comes to their parents in an old age home.

There is no point on the continuum where people would say.......okay, we have spent enough money on the problem and our folks will just have to suffer.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> "Revamping" is an interesting way of describing Ford's actions.
> 
> He eliminated regular audits, halted future facilities being built, and eliminated the scheduled $1 an hour increase to minimum wage workers in the homes.
> 
> We will learn more of the details in the future, which it appears Ford is trying to avoid by appointing a commission, setting the agenda and rules for it, and putting it off into the future.
> 
> Ford could be gone before any commission issues it's findings.


Yawn, you didn't even bother supporting your last unsupported statements 1:32 ratio, now you're making more.
Now I remember why I put you on ignore.

This is pointless, you spout trolly nonsense, refuse to substantiate it, then make up more unfounded claims.


----------



## sags

Observation.......When I started this thread I thought it would be a few replies about a virus outbreak in China and then disappear.

Here we are at 131 pages, 2,607 posts and still going on. I am thinking this will be the longest thread on CMF at some point..........unfortunately.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Race to the moon... race to the vaccine...









Coronavirus: Putin says vaccine has been approved for use


Russia's president says the vaccine - named Sputnik-V - has passed checks but experts are sceptical.



www.bbc.com


----------



## calm

34 Attorneys General Call to Bust Gilead’s Pharma Monopoly on COVID Treatment Remdesivir

In July, Gilead priced remdesivir at $3,100 a course ($520 a vial) for patients with government or private insurance. Even without the pandemic, this represents a scandalous markup over the estimated production cost of the drug of $10.
By Alex Lawson
August 11, 2020


https://buzzflash.com/articles/34-attorneys-general-call-to-bust-gileads-pharma-monopoly-on-covid-treatment-remdesivir


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> People aren't interested in conducting a cost/reward analysis when it comes to their parents in an old age home.
> 
> There is no point on the continuum where people would say.......okay, we have spent enough money on the problem and our folks will just have to suffer.


 ... yep, just as we continue to import the virus in. And I thought our borders were closed???? Guess not with air-space.

Eight recent flights to Pearson carried passengers with COVID-19



> Eight flights arriving in Toronto from international destinations since the start of August have had people on board with COVID-19.
> 
> According to the federal government, the flights landed in Toronto between Aug. 1 and Aug. 4. They all had passengers who tested positive for COVID-19 after arriving in Canada. ...


Seems a 2nd wave is inevitable ... possibly the Nth wave if an effective vaccine doesn't come up.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, they didn't follow someones recommendations.
> I recommend 24/hr a day personal concierge service, they didn't follow that recommendation either.
> 
> The point is my data is likely correct, and the 1:32 ratio is not supported.
> I claimed that nobody provided data that there were significantly fewer inspections. Nobody has, the closest we have is your data on a single type of inspection. Myself I think there are different types of inspections and you can't complain "inspections" are down, without considering how many of what inspections are being done.


It seems you want to hang your hat on the definition of the word 'inspection' MrMatt. In your definition, it seems any visit to a home after a complaint was an 'inspection', while sags is referring to the FACT that regular non-incident related FULL inspections of homes was reduced to near zero. The dramatic drop in FULL inspections of LTC homes is well documented and well known MrMatt and no one has to provide proof that YOU will accept for that to be true whether you wish to acknowledge it or not.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> It seems you want to hang your hat on the definition of the word 'inspection' MrMatt. In your definition, it seems any visit to a home after a complaint was an 'inspection', while sags is referring to the FACT that regular non-incident related FULL inspections of homes was reduced to near zero. The dramatic drop in FULL inspections of LTC homes is well documented and well known MrMatt and no one has to provide proof that YOU will accept for that to be true whether you wish to acknowledge it or not.


Well yes, when we are literally talking about the "number of inspections" i think that the number of "inspections" is the key criteria.

If I was responsible for scheduling inspections, I would generally prioritize incident related inspections over non-incident related inspections.

I'm okay with responding to emergencies before non-emergencies. People before paperwork! 

Are you suggesting that we should abandon incidents inspections in favour of regular inspections?
That's insane.
Yes its important to check smoke detectors, but maybe the fire department should go put the fires first.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Well yes, when we are literally talking about the "number of inspections" i think that the number of "inspections" is the key criteria.
> 
> If I was responsible for scheduling inspections, I would generally prioritize incident related inspections over non-incident related inspections.
> 
> I'm okay with responding to emergencies before non-emergencies. People before paperwork!
> 
> Are you suggesting that we should abandon incidents inspections in favour of regular inspections?
> That's insane.
> Yes its important to check smoke detectors, but maybe the fire department should go put the fires first.


You are simply ignoring the fact that regular inspections are done to check ALL aspects of the homes and to find issues BEFORE they become a problem. It is not a question of 'abandoning incident inspections', no one said that. You are trying to say it is an either/or question. It is not it is an AND issue. You do regular inspections to be proactive and you do incident inspections to be reactive. You do ALL of both, not prioritize one at the expense of the other.

If you don't realize why you would do full inspections independently of incident inspections, then I am glad you are not in charge of deciding what needs to be done.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> You are simply ignoring the fact that regular inspections are done to check ALL aspects of the homes and to find issues BEFORE they become a problem. It is not a question of 'abandoning incident inspections', no one said that. You are trying to say it is an either/or question. It is not it is an AND issue. You do regular inspections to be proactive and you do incident inspections to be reactive. You do ALL of both, not prioritize one at the expense of the other.
> 
> If you don't realize why you would do full inspections independently of incident inspections, then I am glad you are not in charge of deciding what needs to be done.


I think they should increase inspections.

You're simply ignoring the fact that you have no data to support your claim that inspections were cut.

Clearly they don't have the resources to do both, so what do you pick?
Apparently the experts in charge chose to prioritize incidents. I think that's the right choice, when things go bad, what looks worse, that you didn't know there was a problem, or that there was a problem and you didn't investigate?

Yes I know your solution is do both, and you'll refuse to make a decision. That's fine.
Yes I know you are glad I'm not in charge of deciding what needs to be done, but the people who are made the same choice I would have.


My point remains.
You claimed the Ford government cut inspections but still have not provided data to support it.

1. Cut inspections.
2. Issued an order to cut inspections.
3. Cut the inspection budget.


Again, if the police are running a speed trap, and there is an emergency, they might take off to deal with the incident. That's what they should do, it's about priorities.


----------



## sags

A "response" to a complaint isn't an inspection. Mr. Matt is confusing the terms.

The homes are notified in advance when an inspector is coming to respond to a complaint. The homes don't know when an audit is coming.

The full audits are unannounced visits and the homes are unable to hide deficiencies and breaches to regulations.

A response to a complaint may be performed over the phone, wheras a full audit takes place in person.

It is pretty obvious why full audits are far more responsive and preferable, unless they are trying to hide something.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> A "response" to a complaint isn't an inspection. Mr. Matt is confusing the terms.
> 
> The homes are notified in advance when an inspector is coming to respond to a complaint. The homes don't know when an audit is coming.
> 
> The full audits are unannounced visits and the homes are unable to hide deficiencies and breaches to regulations.
> 
> A response to a complaint may be performed over the phone, wheras a full audit takes place in person.
> 
> It is pretty obvious why full audits are far more responsive and preferable, unless they are trying to hide something.


Yes full audits are generally better.

That's however irrelevant to the point being discussed, and your series of unsupported claims.
I'll be putting you back on ignore unless you support your 1:32 ratio claim, and the claim that inspections were cut.
If you can't, it's clear you're simply trolling and wasting my time.


----------



## sags

You are going around in circles now.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> You are going around in circles now.


Yup, you make claims, don't substantiate them, then try to redirect from your initial claim.


----------



## Prairie Guy

MrMatt said:


> Yup, you make claims, don't substantiate them, then try to redirect from your initial claim.


Standard procedure when they make false claims they can't back up.

And no matter how many times they're wrong they continue to act as if they were always right.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> I think they should increase inspections.
> 
> You're simply ignoring the fact that you have no data to support your claim that inspections were cut.
> 
> Clearly they don't have the resources to do both, so what do you pick?
> Apparently the experts in charge chose to prioritize incidents. I think that's the right choice, when things go bad, what looks worse, that you didn't know there was a problem, or that there was a problem and you didn't investigate?
> 
> Yes I know your solution is do both, and you'll refuse to make a decision. That's fine.
> Yes I know you are glad I'm not in charge of deciding what needs to be done, but the people who are made the same choice I would have.
> 
> 
> My point remains.
> You claimed the Ford government cut inspections but still have not provided data to support it.
> 
> 1. Cut inspections.
> 2. Issued an order to cut inspections.
> 3. Cut the inspection budget.
> 
> 
> Again, if the police are running a speed trap, and there is an emergency, they might take off to deal with the incident. That's what they should do, it's about priorities.


MrMatt, I don't know why you keep trying to insist that inspections were not cut and that YOU need proof to believe it.

In the past, all LTC homes were given an annual RQI and all incident reports were followed up on. So CEARLY, they DID have the resources to do both and did NOT have to prioritize one over the other.

Now will you accept a CBC report from April of this year as 'proof'?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/seniors-homes-inspections-1.5532585#:~:text=Ontario%20drastically%20reduced%20comprehensive%20long,a%20year%20before%20COVID%2D19&text=As%20outlined%20in%20the%202018,long%2Dterm%20care%20home.%22



What should be clear to you in that report is that RQI's were getting done and then they stopped and shifted their wording to '2800 inspections were done'. They started playing 'semantics' as you are doing.

Most LTC homes received full RQI inspections in 2015, 2016 and 2017. It dropped to half in 2018 and only 9 in 2019. Those are the facts MrMatt. Now will you accept as 'proof' a fact check document from the Ontario Health Coalition dated June 1 of this year.




__





Fact Check & Briefing Note on Inspections in Ontario’s Long-Term Care Homes - Ontario Health Coalition


(May 31, 2020) By: Ontario Health Coalition TORONTO, June 01, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Ontario Health Coalition, which has advocated for more than two




www.ontariohealthcoalition.ca





In which you will find, "_“However, since 2018, the Government has indicated that any type of inspection done by the Ministry qualifies as an “annual” Inspection under the Act. To count complaint- and critical incident-based inspections as being equivalent to comprehensive annual RQI inspections is misleading."_

We went from full RQI inspections AND responding to incidents, to ONLY responding to incidents. There is no way to 'spin' that positively MrMatt.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt, I don't know why you keep trying to insist that inspections were not cut and that YOU need proof to believe it.
> 
> 
> We went from full RQI inspections AND responding to incidents, to ONLY responding to incidents. There is no way to 'spin' that positively MrMatt.


Well I need proof that inspections were cut to believe that they're cut.
The data is out there, you likely just don't want to post data that disproves your points. You'd rather cling to your opinion.

I never said there was a positive way to spin in, I agree that they don't have enough inspectors to do the job properly.
I simply questioned your claim that inspections were cut.

The sad reality is that we have the same understaffed inspectors working like crazy trying to keep people safe.
For some reason rather than promoting the real issue and problem, ie chronic understaffing, you spout false/unsupported and/or misleading facts about cuts.
When you say things that are not true, or you are not able to support, people don't trust you.
The fact that for several days you've been insisting on cuts, yet you can't provide any data suggests you're not being truthful.

The thing is there is really no reason for me to discuss this issue with you.
You have access to the data, you'd just rather have your opinion. The fact that your opinion appears factually wrong doesn't seem to bother you.
What is there to discuss? No matter what data I present, you're not going to change your opinion to align with reality.


----------



## Eclectic12

Not sure why you think the data isn't out there for cuts.

Resident Quality Inspections (RQI) are not announced where a review of the 2015 to 2019 reports had most of 626 homes having RQIs from 2015 to 2017, less than half in 2018 and nine in 2019. The 2018 Long term Care Homes Public Inquiry said the RQIs were important to find systemic issues compared to the more reactive complaint/critical incident inspections where usually the home knows in advance when they will happen.

The RQIs found neglect, abuse, mishandling of medications and failure to report incidents _at the same time_ that the industry was pushing for dropping RQIs for a "coaching for compliance" system.

Not sure what was in the 2010 legislation but the description by the Liberals was of annual RQIs for all homes.









Long-term care homes want end to mandatory inspections


Are inspections unnecessary red tape - or vitally important?




ottawacitizen.com












Fact Check & Briefing Note on Inspections in Ontario’s Long-Term Care Homes


TORONTO, June 01, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Ontario Health Coalition, which has advocated for more than two decades for annual unannounced full...




www.globenewswire.com






Most people I know have found few or no issues when the home knows they are visiting but when they have dropped by unannounced, some really serious problems have been noticed. I'm not a fan of "coaching for compliance".



Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Not sure why you think the data isn't out there for cuts.


Because the people making the claims can't provide the data to substantiate them.
Lets look at this logically.
Realistically if they were actively cut, there would be some data somewhere. 

Imagine the political optics if they could actually point to Ford cutting inspectors, that would be political gold, and the Liberals would LOVE to have it.
But nobody seems to have the data.

I've been clear, they haven't shown the data that.
1. Funding was cut.
2. Number of inspectors were cut.
3. The province issued any directive to reduce inspections.

Oh and after days of calling them on the lack of data they can't find it, I think their initial opinion is just an emotional hatred of Ford, no matter what he did, they'd be unhappy.
Also it really doesn't make sense that he'd be making dramatic changes to inspection rates while they're preparing their new plan for long term care.


----------



## Prairie Guy

When the left doesn't have facts they just scream louder. Like a 5-year old immature child.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Because the people making the claims can't provide the data to substantiate them..
> 
> Lets look at this logically.
> Realistically if they were actively cut, there would be some data somewhere ...


Hundreds of RQI's in 2015 to nine in 2019 isn't specific enough?

I pulled up a local LTC home in my area. The last RQI inspection was in 2017 then 2016 and 2015.
The last announced inspection was a Jan 30th, 2020 complaints inspection.

As I say, my relatives experience is announced visits means issues are hidden so I don't trust the announced ones.
It's kind of like trusting the fox to guard the hen house.




MrMatt said:


> ... Oh and after days of calling them on the lack of data they can't find it, I think their initial opinion is just an emotional hatred of Ford, no matter what he did, they'd be unhappy.


There are some like that.




MrMatt said:


> ...Also it really doesn't make sense that he'd be making dramatic changes to inspection rates while they're preparing their new plan for long term care.


Then I guess in your opinion, it's coincidence that RQI's went from hundreds to nine at the same time there was a push by LTC operators to do away with RQI's? 

Cheers


----------



## calm

The CDC claims that a person receiving a vaccine should remain seated or lying down for 15 minutes after vaccination

Vaccine Administration
Patient Care During Vaccine Administration

350 million North American's mulitplied by 15 minutes each.?
How many man hours is that?
(I am no good at math)

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) also recommends that providers consider observing the patient (with patient seated or lying down) for 15 minutes after vaccination.




__





Pinkbook: Vaccine Administration | CDC


Vaccine Administration Chapter of Pinkbook: (Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases)




www.cdc.gov


----------



## bgc_fan

calm said:


> The CDC claims that a person receiving a vaccine should remain seated or lying down for 15 minutes after vaccination


I'm pretty sure that's standard practice for flu, vaccines and even allergy shots. They want people to wait around in case there is a reaction.


----------



## calm

I am trying to figure out just how big and expensive this vaccination program is going to be?

How many people will they need to hire and how many months it will take to complete if every time a sleeve is pulled up takes 15 minutes?

The answer to this math question would tell us how long after a vaccination is approved will we still need to be wearing a mask?

How many needle pushers will they need to hire and train just to get 350 million vaccinated?

When can people toss the masks away in the trash?


----------



## Plugging Along

calm said:


> I am trying to figure out just how big and expensive this vaccination program is going to be?
> 
> How many people will they need to hire and how many months it will take to complete if every time a sleeve is pulled up takes 15 minutes?


I don't think the time is really a big deal. The 15 minutes is a standard protocol for any vaccine. You can immunize multiple people in those 15 minutes. The process is something like this:
1. Fill out form while in line, ahead of time, or on line.
2. Person goes over the form for completeness
3. Go to the nurse administrating it. It about 3-5 minutes, max to get the needle ready, prep the area and go over the information, and stab..
4. Go to waiting area and sit there with your phone or book and wait.

In our province you can get vaccinations at doctors offices, pharmacies, and clinics opened for the flu season. Many places of work offer them too. Also, my mother's long term care facility requires all the staff and residences to get flu shot. They have two people administering them for the whole two buildings in a 4 hour period. They also allow family member to sign up at get them too if they don't want to wait. They do about 200 people in the 4 hours. 

The time to get the shot is not a big deal. I think distribution of the vaccine and the needles will be a little harder.


----------



## bgc_fan

Here's an old 2009 article about H1N1. You can kind of guess or extrapolate based on that: Cost of vaccinating the nation hits $1.5-billion and climbing

Mind you, you have to compare the cost to keeping the economy in semi-lock down state as well.

As for masks, I would say it would still be a good idea because no one knows who has been vaccinated, and it'll reduce some rate of spread. There'll always be some anti-vaxxers and that will possibly mean that herd immunity wouldn't occur.


----------



## calm

The answer is not clear to me.

Time is a big deal. It tells me just how much longer people will need to wear a mask and how long it will be before the world returns to 80% normal.

You think they can vaccinate 350 million armpits in less than a year?

I am no good at math. But I "Guess" it might be at least 18 months if they only hire and train 100 thousand to stick the needles. (it is just a guess)

Maybe a good comparison would be how many people need to be hired for test and trace?
Each individual test/trace interview may take 15 minutes.








Health Departments


COVID-19 guidelines, tools, and resources for health departments.




www.cdc.gov


----------



## bgc_fan

You'd be looking at decentralized response. It took 4 months to vaccinate 41% of Canada's population. H1N1 vaccination

It probably didn't go higher than that because not everyone wanted to be vaccinated.

The resources are existing, it's just a question of vaccine distribution. Basically, you're looking at a parallel processing of people getting the vaccine so it is possible to get quite a bit of throughput through assuming that this is going to be the number one priority for health care professionals. I don't think people are going to be hired off the street for this, as I doubt you want someone new to start poking a needle through you. If necessary, they could always get nursing and medical students as extra personnel.


----------



## calm

bgc_fan said:


> It took 4 months to vaccinate 41% of Canada's population. H1N1 vaccination


Basically .... 15 million HIN1 Vaccinations in 4 months.
Maybe a year to organize a program to vaccinate all 35 million in Canada?

So, we may be able to throw our masks into the garbage can one year after a vaccine is introduced. (The late summer of 2022)

There are many variables, but maybe America could jab 350 million arms in 2 years. (Throw masks in garbage in summer 2023.)


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Well I need proof that inspections were cut to believe that they're cut.
> The data is out there, you likely just don't want to post data that disproves your points. You'd rather cling to your opinion.
> 
> I never said there was a positive way to spin in, I agree that they don't have enough inspectors to do the job properly.
> I simply questioned your claim that inspections were cut.
> 
> The sad reality is that we have the same understaffed inspectors working like crazy trying to keep people safe.
> For some reason rather than promoting the real issue and problem, ie chronic understaffing, you spout false/unsupported and/or misleading facts about cuts.
> When you say things that are not true, or you are not able to support, people don't trust you.
> The fact that for several days you've been insisting on cuts, yet you can't provide any data suggests you're not being truthful.
> 
> The thing is there is really no reason for me to discuss this issue with you.
> You have access to the data, you'd just rather have your opinion. The fact that your opinion appears factually wrong doesn't seem to bother you.
> What is there to discuss? No matter what data I present, you're not going to change your opinion to align with reality.


So I gave you two links to reputable sources, the CBC and the Ontario Health Coalition and you do not even acknowledge them in your response to me. The stopping of doing RQI inspections is not disputable and so you don't dispute that, you just ignore it.

You seem to have bought the line of 'we did over 2000 inspections in 2019' and hang your hat on that. Why don't you man up and admit you bought their line without knowing that they were not telling you they stopped doing RQIs. You bought the Kool aid kid.

Now you are just making a fool of yourself by refusing to admit they fooled you as they did many others.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> Basically .... 15 million HIN1 Vaccinations in 4 months.
> Maybe a year to organize a program to vaccinate all 35 million in Canada?
> 
> So, we may be able to throw our masks into the garbage can one year after a vaccine is introduced. (The late summer of 2022)
> 
> There are many variables, but maybe America could jab 350 million arms in 2 years. (Throw masks in garbage in summer 2023.)


Calm, stop conflating Canada and the USA. Talk about one or the other and preferably just Canada.

You need math and time requirement lessons. When you read that we did in CANADA, 15 million vaccinations in 4 months, that does not mean you have to do some multiplying to figure out how long it would take to do 35 million. They could all be done in the same 4 months possibly. All the 15 million in 4 months tells you is how many WERE done in 4 months, not how many COULD be done in 4 months or any other time period.

When I get a flu jab at our local pharmacy, there might be one other person there doing the same. There is nothing to stop there being 4 or 5 other people being there to do so and every other hour and day of the week. So can our pharmacy do only 1 per day or could they just as easily do 5 per day? Or should that be how many can they do per hour perhaps? 

The time required to give 100% of Canadians a jab is only limited by the actual physical time required to line them up and jab them one after another and how much time it takes to physically get the vaccine produced and delivered to wherever it is being given to the public.


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> So I gave you two links to reputable sources, the CBC and the Ontario Health Coalition and you do not even acknowledge them in your response to me. The stopping of doing RQI inspections is not disputable and so you don't dispute that, you just ignore it.
> 
> You seem to have bought the line of 'we did over 2000 inspections in 2019' and hang your hat on that. Why don't you man up and admit you bought their line without knowing that they were not telling you they stopped doing RQIs. You bought the Kool aid kid.
> 
> Now you are just making a fool of yourself by refusing to admit they fooled you as they did many others.


 ... in case you're not aware, you're responding to a now "banned" poster. Ouch!


----------



## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> ... in case you're not aware, you're responding to a now "banned" poster. Ouch!


Huh, what did MrMatt get banned for? I can think of several posters who deserve to be banned far more than he would.


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> Huh, what did MrMatt get banned for? I can think of several posters who deserve to be banned far more than he would.


 ... don't know exactly (you can ask the moderator(s)) but he isn't the only one. 

I think your (favourite) lonewolf got banned also as with the supposedly Canadian Guy from the Prairies. Not to worry, I think it's only a temporary ban ... for xxx # of days.


----------



## bgc_fan

Longtimeago said:


> Huh, what did MrMatt get banned for? I can think of several posters who deserve to be banned far more than he would.


Moderator mentioned spreading conspiracy theories about US politicians, and the messages were deleted, so no idea.

Strange that conspiracy theories about COVID doesn't get the same treatment. Lonewolf got banned for calling for an overthrow of the Canadian government.


----------



## calm

I was thinking that they could both register anew and sign in with a new stage name ..... but I am quite confident that we would easily recognize the same Language of Conspirators.
-----
This comment is not about banning people on this website at Canadian Money. It is about banning conspiracy websites.

All this banning conspiracy promoters began in earnest with Alex Jones. The original 9-11 theorist.
I am thinking that a solid 40% of Americans think 9-11 was an inside job. Americans don't trust their own government.

I recall how America faked an attack by Vietnam thus giving a reason to begin the war. (Gulf Of Tomkin Incident in the 1960's.)

All the instances where medical experiments carried out upon American citizens.

We are told that the American People are very smart and that they can figure things out. We are told that the American People can not be propagandized because they are too smart to be fooled.

So, we shut down conspiracy websites like Alex Jones and a zillion others because conspiracy promoters are winning the hearts and minds of "Smart People".

We are told that Russia spent only 100 thousand dollars on FaceBook advertising and the Smart People were persuaded to vote for Trump.


----------



## Longtimeago

bgc_fan said:


> Moderator mentioned spreading conspiracy theories about US politicians, and the messages were deleted, so no idea.
> 
> Strange that conspiracy theories about COVID doesn't get the same treatment. Lonewolf got banned for calling for an overthrow of the Canadian government.


LOL, the forum boasts 161k members. Sound like they've just banned a large percentage of the actual ACTIVE members in one fell swoop. Ban around 6 more and there will be no active posters left.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> I was thinking that they could both register anew and sign in with a new stage name ..... but I am quite confident that we would easily recognize the same Language of Conspirators.


Not that easy, have to change IP address to not get noticed.


----------



## bgc_fan

Longtimeago said:


> LOL, the forum boasts 161k members. Sound like they've just banned a large percentage of the actual ACTIVE members in one fell swoop. Ban around 6 more and there will be no active posters left.


In fairness, this is a personal finance forum. Actual personal finance posts are pretty limited, and the active members in question spend most of their time in the general forums. So, when it comes to financial discussion, there isn't much that changes.


----------



## andrewf

Not sure what MrMatt did but I don't think he should be banned. lonewolf was just tiresome noise (I have him on ignore), so good riddance.


----------



## moderator2

andrewf said:


> Not sure what MrMatt did but I don't think he should be banned. lonewolf was just tiresome noise (I have him on ignore), so good riddance.


MrMatt and Prairie Guy were banned _temporarily_ because they posted outrageous things about misc political figures being sex abusers. These are dangerous (and obscene) conspiracy theories meant to be very inflammatory, that are part of a political agenda.

I absolutely will ban them again, or anyone else, who tries posting that kind of obscene content.

Reddit moderates content even more strictly than we do here.


----------



## calm

moderator2 said:


> MrMatt was banned because he posted outrageous things about misc political figures being child sex abusers.
> 
> I'm not going to allow someone to parade around here posting dangerous conspiracy theories. If he wants to post here, he can control his behaviour and post civilized material.


I understood why you can not allow someone to label anybody a child abuser without legal proof.
You are responsible to monitor all the words in this forum or you will have your website buried with legal fees. (Especially if some member Klicked the "Report Button" to alert the moderators.)

I don't envy your job at all.
I owned and moderated a V-Bulletin Forum for 20 years.


----------



## moderator2

bgc_fan said:


> In fairness, this is a personal finance forum. Actual personal finance posts are pretty limited, and the active members in question spend most of their time in the general forums. So, when it comes to financial discussion, there isn't much that changes.


Exactly. I realize that the wild content is fun for some people, but this is a financial discussion and investment forum.

I will continue to ban people who post extremist content and political conspiracy theories. It's very unpleasant stuff, and is really part of a political (ideological) agenda - they are NOT trying to participate here in good faith.


----------



## bgc_fan

moderator2 said:


> I will continue to ban people who post extremist content and political conspiracy theories. It's very unpleasant stuff, and is really part of a political (ideological) agenda - they are NOT trying to participate here in good faith.


While I appreciate your reasoning, I'm sure that when they return, the first postings will be about being censured for not being left-wing followers. As long as you are willing to deal with that eventuality.


----------



## calm

Is Moderator2 saying that with all those flashing paid advertisements surrounding my monitor when visiting this website that you gotta perform this Moderator work for free?
You don't even get an honorarium?
Capitalism must be pretty tense.


----------



## sags

A lot of discussions that could be started in the financial sections of the forum, seem to end up in the General Discussion area these days.

The result is there isn't much being posted in the other dedicated financial areas.

There isn't a whole lot of "new" topics that occur in finances in general and many financial forums end up as dead zones.

Some of the more durable forums are like the Red Flag Forum and have constantly updated "free", "coupons" or "deals" sections that keep them active.


----------



## sags

I should also add that most Canadians aren't interested in forums about money and that is why many are financially ignorant.

They just don't care and never will unless a specific financial crisis affects them. I think part of it is they don't have money, don't see any short term reasonable way to accumulate money and therefore have no interest in forums about money.

I expect some "my mortgage deferral is over and I got no money" posts to start springing up soon.


----------



## calm

sags said:


> I should also add that most Canadians aren't interested in forums about money and that is why so many are financially ignorant.
> They just don't care and never will.


I am keenly interested in "Money" but I am not into counting it.
I don't spend any time counting stocks and the money values.
Especially now with the Federal Reserve determining winners and losers.
However it seems to be quite rewarding for some.

This forum has some pretty knowledgeable people and who know all the corporate leaders in town and all those CEO statistics like a baseball card.

I thought that this book was quite informative for me.
I like this type of financial research.

Web Of Debt
The Shocking Truth About Our Money System And How We Can Break Free (e-Book)
Third Edition, Revised and Expanded With 2008 Update
Exploding The Myths About Money
Our money system is not what we have been led to believe. The creation of money has been "privatized," or taken over by a private money cartel. Except for coins, all of our money is now created as loans advanced by private banking institutions -- including the private Federal Reserve. Banks create the principal but not the interest to service their loans. To find the interest, new loans must continually be taken out, expanding the money supply, inflating prices -- and robbing you of the value of your money. Web of Debt unravels the deception and presents a crystal clear picture of the financial abyss towards which we are heading. Then it explores a workable alternative, one that was tested in colonial America and is grounded in the best of American economic thought, including the writings of Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln. If you care about financial security, your own or the nation's, you should read this book.
By Ellen Hodgson Brown, J.D.
January 31, 2008




__





Web of Debt - How Banks And The Federal Reserve Are Bankrupting The Planet...


Ellen Brown has used Web of Debt to expose important information regarding out nation's debt and the dwindling spiral of our economy.



www.webofdebt.com





Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
By John Perkins
December 27, 2005








Confessions of an Economic Hit Man - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## sags

Speaking about money......the CERB payments are drawing to an end. The pandemic pay of $4 an hour plus $250 a month ended August 13.

The virus is still here. Many people are still out of work. What happens now ?


----------



## moderator2

bgc_fan said:


> While I appreciate your reasoning, I'm sure that when they return, the first postings will be about being censured for not being left-wing followers. As long as you are willing to deal with that eventuality.


I'm not concerned about that.

We do not allow hostile, obscene, or highly inflammatory content. Some of the conspiracy theories cross over into extremist / crazy politics. There is no need for it here. If members find this confusing or have trouble grasping the concept, go to Reddit's PFC or RedFlagDeals to see what _they_ allow.

The standards here are similar.


----------



## calm

About opening schools in Florida ....

Florida is kind of forcing the state to open schools and not use Zoom Learning.
The teachers took government to court.
The case is being argued on Zoom to protect the courts.
Like the teacher said ..... how ironic?

Also, cost to test students for virus is $470 per test.
No sharing books, pencils or erasers like we all did in school. How are they ever gonna police that?


----------



## Longtimeago

Every time a large group gathers somewhere it makes the news and every time they talk about 'talking about' issuing fines but still don't do it. 

This quote about fines, "_“Its something we can certainly be looking at and certainly be talking to our staff about," _is from a Vancouver city councillor reported here:








Large gatherings seen on 2 Vancouver beaches Saturday night


Videos posted on social media show two large gatherings happening on Vancouver beaches Saturday night – one at Wreck Beach and one at English Bay – prompting calls for stricter enforcement of COVID-19 rules.



bc.ctvnews.ca





How many times are they going to 'talk about it' and still do nothing? Obviously, it would be extremely difficult to try and write tickets to several hundred people. While doing so, the people stay there and the bylaw officers and/or police are also exposed to that large group. So it may well be that there is no practical way to enforce the restrictions with ticketing for physical distancing. If that is the case, then they need to accept it is not practical and then look for a DIFFERENT way to get people to stop gathering, not just keep talking about issuing tickets and doing nothing.

I have already suggested an answer I believe would work and is PRACTICAL to do. When a group gathers and the authorities are made aware of it, have it responded to by the Police and Fire Department. Have the Fire Department hook up multiple hoses and hose down the area. 

Do not direct the water INTO the gathering, simply direct the water OVER the gathering, like rain. How long do you think they would stay there in the rain? Literally, 'Rain on their Parade' is my answer.


----------



## calm

Discussion of Wikileaks or any “Hacked Information” Banned Under New YouTube Rules
YouTube’s decision to ban discussion of hacked information on its platform is unlikely to improve election integrity in the US, it will, however, continue to tilt the balance in favor of established corporate-funded outlets like Fox News and CNN.
By Alan Macleod
August 14th, 2020








Discussion of Wikileaks or any “Hacked Information” Banned Under New YouTube Rules


YouTube has banned discussion of hacked information such as WikiLeaks releases claiming the move will improve election integrity.




www.mintpressnews.com


----------



## Retired Peasant

Canada has banned non-essential travel by land from the US. Yet air travel apparently isn't banned - Air Canada is even promoting 'leisure' travel to the US. It makes no sense.








Air Canada promoting ‘leisure’ travel to U.S. despite advisories warning against non-essential trips - National | Globalnews.ca


Even as coronavirus cases surge in the U.S., Air Canada is promoting 'leisure and business' flights to see 'friends and relatives.'




globalnews.ca


----------



## Longtimeago

Retired Peasant said:


> Canada has banned non-essential travel by land from the US. Yet air travel apparently isn't banned - Air Canada is even promoting 'leisure' travel to the US. It makes no sense.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Air Canada promoting ‘leisure’ travel to U.S. despite advisories warning against non-essential trips - National | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Even as coronavirus cases surge in the U.S., Air Canada is promoting 'leisure and business' flights to see 'friends and relatives.'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


You have to look it in parts Retired Peasant.

Canada can advise you to, 'avoid non-essential travel' but that does not mean you have to listen to that advisory. You can choose to ignore it. So getting OUT of Canada is not a problem and Air Canada can advertise to encourage you to do that if they want to.

The next question is though, while you may be able to get on a plane to somewhere, will they let you in when you arrive? In the case of someone trying to enter Canada, they may not be allowed entry by land,sea or air unless it is deemed 'essential travel' and they are also required to quarantine for 14 days.

But in the case of the USA, the rules are not the same. For land entry, it must be considered essential travel but there is no such requirement for sea or air entry to the USA. So, a Canadian can enter the USA by air but not by land, as a simple tourist.

You are right to say that it makes no sense though but then what has sense got to do with anything these days.


----------



## calm

I forgot to mention the Kennedy Assassination conspiracy theories. That was huge when I was a kid.
I remember coming home from school and seeing my mother on the stairway and crying. (And she was born and raised in Nova Scotia, not U.S..)


----------



## like_to_retire

calm said:


> I forgot to mention the Kennedy Assassination conspiracy theories. That was huge when I was a kid.
> I remember coming home from school and seeing my mother on the stairway and crying. (And she was born and raised in Nova Scotia, not U.S..)


Yeah, I think it was grade 7 for me, and the principal opened the door to our class one day and came in and said President Kennedy had been shot (as if he was our leader). Everyone was very upset and the teacher consoled us. 

We had to wait until we were home after school that day and watch the black and white TV News at 6 PM with Walter Cronkite before we knew what had happened.

You would think we would have all just checked our smart phones to find out what happened.

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Huh, what did MrMatt get banned for? I can think of several posters who deserve to be banned far more than he would.


I got banned for saying that it was inappropriate for Joe Biden to engage in the well documented creepy behaviour around women, particularly young girls. I'm not sure what the actual wrong word was, but search creepy joe biden, and look at the childs face.


----------



## andrewf

Yeah, vote for the other guy, who brags about waltzing into teenage girls changing rooms and 'oh well' if they are naked.


----------



## Eclectic12

Retired Peasant said:


> Canada has banned non-essential travel by land from the US. Yet air travel apparently isn't banned - Air Canada is even promoting 'leisure' travel to the US. It makes no sense ...


It's the US part that makes no sense as it's the US that is asking about essential travel for land crossings but apparently does not care for air travel. If Canada was allowing non-essential air travel from the US then I don't get why the split families or why the US citizen son who wants to visit his dying mother would complain instead of flying into Canada.

As for AC, are you really surprised that a company that's running few international routes would want to get as many passengers as possible for where they can fly?


It makes no sense but as much as Canada may not like it, if they encountered resistance to closing the loophole from the US, they may think they have bigger fish to fry.


Cheers


----------



## calm

I got this feeling that North America has decided that "Herd Immunity" is the policy and politicians are unable to state this specifically. 
Politicians are talking "Protection" but it is really about controlling a flood of patients into hospitals.
I am thinking that the plan is to expose everyone to the virus but in a controlled fashion.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eclectic12 said:


> It's the US part that makes no sense as it's the US that is asking about essential travel for land crossings but apparently does not care for air travel. If Canada was allowing non-essential air travel from the US then I don't get why the split families or why the US citizen son who wants to visit his dying mother would complain instead of flying into Canada.
> 
> As for AC, are you really surprised that a company that's running few international routes would want to get as many passengers as possible for where they can fly?
> 
> 
> It makes no sense but as much as Canada may not like it, if they encountered resistance to closing the loophole from the US, they may think they have bigger fish to fry.
> 
> 
> Cheers


What people need to keep in mind Eclectic12, is that any business or even a country makes their decisions based on what they think is in THEIR interest, not the interest of the Canadian consumer. So Air Canada will advertise vacation flights to the USA as long as the USA allows Canadians to enter that way. 

On another thread someone brought up that Portugal is providing Covid health insurance to tourists who come to their country. They aren't doing that for the tourists benefit, they are doing it for the benefit of Portugal's economy obviously.

They'll take care of you if you get the virus but in the meantime will make money of all the others who don't get sick. Not much consolation if you are the one who happens to get the virus and ends up in a hospital in Portugal. If get the virus, the only place I would want to be is at home, not in some other country.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> I got this feeling that North America has decided that "Herd Immunity" is the policy and politicians are unable to state this specifically.
> Politicians are talking "Protection" but it is really about controlling a flood of patients into hospitals.
> I am thinking that the plan is to expose everyone to the virus but in a controlled fashion.


Calm, I find that a lot of your comments focus more on the USA than on Canada. 'North America' has not decided anything. Our policies HERE in Canada are quite different from those at the federal and many state levels, in the USA. Canada has no 'plan' at ANY level to expose everyone to the virus, in any fashion.


----------



## calm

We now have the best evidence yet that everyone develops long-term coronavirus immunity after infection — and it's not just about antibodies

A study published Friday in the journal Cell suggests that everyone who gets COVID-19 – even people with mild or asymptomatic cases – develops T cells that can hunt down the coronavirus if they get exposed again later.
That’s because memory T cells can stick around for years, while antibody levels drop following an infection.
“There’s a lot of hot stuff going on right now” in T-cell research, Fauci said during a NIAID Facebook Live interview on Thursday, adding, “People who don’t seem to have high titers of antibodies, but who are infected or have been infected, have good T-cell responses.”
By Aylin Woodward
August 19, 2020








Robust T Cell Immunity in Convalescent Individuals with Asymptomatic or Mild COVID-19


Sekine et al. provide a functional and phenotypic map of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells across the full spectrum of exposure, infection, and COVID-19 severity. They observe that SARS-CoV-2 elicits broadly directed and functionally replete memory T cells that may protect against recurrent episodes...



www.cell.com


----------



## sags

More vaccines and therapies are moving ahead with larger clinical studies.

People should pay attention to the large companies with credibility than some fly by night company that could disappear tomorrow.

Trump seems to be more interested in the "Pillow Guy" theories than the hugely successful pharma companies. Trump is one odd duck all right.


----------



## calm

sags said:


> More vaccines and therapies are moving ahead with larger clinical studies.


I was really surprised to learn that just a Covid-19 test or students is 500 bucks per test.


----------



## bgc_fan

sags said:


> Trump seems to be more interested in the "Pillow Guy" theories than the hugely successful pharma companies. Trump is one odd duck all right.


You mean oleandrin? Derived from a poisonous plant? 
COVID CURE OR POISON? MyPillow CEO debates Anderson Cooper over oleandrin's effectiveness

He says he takes it all the time, I'd like to see him actually do that live.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Yeah, vote for the other guy, who brags about waltzing into teenage girls changing rooms and 'oh well' if they are naked.


Yeah, sketchy, and Biden with the girls and hair sniffing and touching - see the creepy Joe videos isn't much better.

I'd rather have an alleged prostitute paying Trump (Stormy Daniels), than an alleged rapey Biden (Tara Reade).

Looking at Joes public behaviour towards women and girls, I think the allegations seem to have merit..


----------



## sags

Tara Reade wants to appear at the GOP convention. I hope they give her prime time.

Maybe she could explain testifying in court at criminal trials as an expert, after falsifying her credentials. The courts now have to review every case she was involved in. Convictions could be overturned and the resultant chaos and hardship would all be due to her false testimony.

Perhaps she could also explain all the public statements from people who she ripped off, and while she is at it......explain how her story about Biden morphed from saying inappropriate things that made her uncomfortable to raping her.

Witness credibility matters, and Tara Reade doesn't have any.


----------



## Longtimeago

calm said:


> I was really surprised to learn that just a Covid-19 test or students is 500 bucks per test.


Not in CANADA calm.


----------



## sags

PS.....if you feel really bad for poor Tara, you can donate to her Go Fund Me campaign.

She says 50% of the money raised will go to charity, and she will keep the other 50%.

And notice while you are there........Alexandra Reade and Tara Reade are the same person. She can't even set up a Go Fund Me page honestly.

Which one of aliases will receive 50% of the donations, and which one of her alias will receive the other 50% ?

The good news is that she is a dumb *** and makes a poor criminal.









Help Tara Reade Fight Back, organized by Samuel Pierce


#MeToo was supposed to mean #TimesUp for all men who abuse their power by sexually harassing … Samuel Pierce needs your support for Help Tara Reade Fight Back



ca.gofundme.com


----------



## Longtimeago

Don't you guys have enough threads to rant about politics etc. on. Why do you have to drag it into every thread?

This is the CORONAVIRUS thread, what does what you think of Tara Reade, Trump or Joe Biden have to do with that?


----------



## sags

True enough LTA........


----------



## calm

Tweet:
By Lilian Cheng
HKU's microbiology team issued a press release suggesting the 33-year-old IT patient, who came back from Spain, is the world’s first #Covid19 reinfected patient.
The scientists “have proven the first instance of human re-infection” by the coronavirus, the university’s Faculty of Medicine said.
By Phila Siu, Gigi Choy, Lilian Cheng and Chan Ho-him
August 24, 2020








World’s first case of Covid-19 reinfection confirmed in Hong Kong university study


Covid-19 is likely to continue to circulate in the human population as in the case of other human coronaviruses, HKU researchers say.




www.scmp.com





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1297835718513815552


----------



## MrMatt

Okay, what is the end-game here.
More evidence (though limited) that reinfection is possible.
First Covid-19 reinfection documented in Hong Kong, researchers say

"But based on what happens with other coronaviruses, experts knew that immunity to SARS-CoV-2 would not last forever. People generally become susceptible again to the coronaviruses that cause the common cold after a year or even less, while protection against SARS-1 and MERS appears to last for a few years."

With no vaccine, and no cure, how long can we keep up these restrictions?


----------



## calm

MrMatt said:


> Okay, what is the end-game here.
> With no vaccine, and no cure, how long can we keep up these restrictions?


.
We really don't know much about this virus.

All we really know for sure is that we got 2 Holloween Nights, 2 Thanksgiving Days, 2 Christmas Days, 1 more May 24th weekend and maybe just 1 more Canada Day ...... while wearing a mask.

Starting this very day, August 25th, 2020 ...... And Counting.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Okay, what is the end-game here.
> More evidence (though limited) that reinfection is possible.
> First Covid-19 reinfection documented in Hong Kong, researchers say
> 
> "But based on what happens with other coronaviruses, experts knew that immunity to SARS-CoV-2 would not last forever. People generally become susceptible again to the coronaviruses that cause the common cold after a year or even less, while protection against SARS-1 and MERS appears to last for a few years."
> 
> With no vaccine, and no cure, how long can we keep up these restrictions?


Why assume there is an 'end game' still to come? This may be the 'end game' right now MrMatt. The 'New Normal' that will continue for years. We may never return to the 'old normal'.


----------



## Longtimeago

In the first 2 weeks of this month, 55 flights arrived in Canada with a Covid infected passenger on board. The airlines and public health officials do not advise all other passengers on those flights that they may have been exposed.









More planes land in Canada with COVID-19-infected passengers. Here's where the flights came from


Nearly two dozen more flights have landed at major airports in Canada with passengers infected with COVID-19.



toronto.ctvnews.ca





All arriving passengers are required to self-isolate for 14 days but as far as I know, no attempt is really made to insure that they do so. It begs the question, how many are self-isolating for 14 days and how many are ignoring that.

A poster here wrote on a thread about neighbours who were leaving to go down to Florida last week. If they are stupid enough to go to Florida right now, are they not also stupid enough to ignore quarantining when they return?


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> In the first 2 weeks of this month, 55 flights arrived in Canada with a Covid infected passenger on board. The airlines and public health officials do not advise all other passengers on those flights that they may have been exposed.


You know, someone should consider travel restrictions.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> You know, someone should consider travel restrictions.


The problem is they cannot restrict anyone from LEAVING MrMatt and they cannot restrict a Canadian citizen from RETURNING. 

Even if they upgrade the travel advisory to 'avoid all travel' from the lesser, 'avoid non-essential travel', they can't stop people from going, it is an 'advisory', not an actual restriction.

Our border is closed to all 'non-essential FOREIGN travellers' by land, sea and air which stops a tourist entering Canada but it doesn't stop a Canadian from leaving or returning even for a vacation. I think it would take a act of parliament to enact a new law to do that and the outcry over 'personal freedom' would be tremendous.

What I do think is despicable, is that the airlines are actively trying to encourage 'non-esssential' travel. How can any of the following be considered 'essential travel'.




__





Last Minute Deals | Air Canada Vacations


Looking for last-minute vacations? Our travel deals can take you there for less!




vacations.aircanada.com


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> The problem is they cannot restrict anyone from LEAVING MrMatt and they cannot restrict a Canadian citizen from RETURNING.
> 
> Even if they upgrade the travel advisory to 'avoid all travel' from the lesser, 'avoid non-essential travel', they can't stop people from going, it is an 'advisory', not an actual restriction.
> 
> Our border is closed to all 'non-essential FOREIGN travellers' by land, sea and air which stops a tourist entering Canada but it doesn't stop a Canadian from leaving or returning even for a vacation. I think it would take a act of parliament to enact a new law to do that and the outcry over 'personal freedom' would be tremendous.
> 
> What I do think is despicable, is that the airlines are actively trying to encourage 'non-esssential' travel. How can any of the following be considered 'essential travel'.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Last Minute Deals | Air Canada Vacations
> 
> 
> Looking for last-minute vacations? Our travel deals can take you there for less!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> vacations.aircanada.com


Well they could deny permission for airlines to engage in any non-essential travel.
They could also enforce the 14 day quarantine, like put people in an isolation hotel for 2 weeks.

I am very leary of giving the Government the ability to restrict travel.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Well they could deny permission for airlines to engage in any non-essential travel.
> They could also enforce the 14 day quarantine, like put people in an isolation hotel for 2 weeks.
> 
> I am very leary of giving the Government the ability to restrict travel.


The reality is that they could do things but in doing so, they would have to accept (if not publicly acknowledge) that the airlines would collapse, the travel companies would collapse, etc. It's that balance between our health and our economy.

The pressure from the travel industry is considerable. The WTTC is talking about over 120 million jobs being affected and as much as 5.4 trillion UK pounds being lost globally. While talking about 'safe trave', it is really about money and jobs obviously. When 1 in 10 jobs globally are connected to travel, it can't be ignored obviously. So health must suffer to allow the economy to come first.









World Travel & Tourism Council call on G7 Governments for help - Hospitality & Catering News


World Travel Tourism Council: has urgently called on the UK government, and all G7 governments to help save the struggling global travel




www.hospitalityandcateringnews.com





That's how it is but that does not mean that we as INDIVIDUALS cannot make our own choice of which to put first. I am not getting on a plane till I feel it is safe to do so, regardless of how much the travel industry wants me to get on a plane to save their jobs and profits.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> The reality is that they could do things but in doing so, they would have to accept (if not publicly acknowledge) that the airlines would collapse, the travel companies would collapse, etc. It's that balance between our health and our economy.
> 
> The pressure from the travel industry is considerable. The WTTC is talking about over 120 million jobs being affected and as much as 5.4 trillion UK pounds being lost globally. While talking about 'safe trave', it is really about money and jobs obviously. When 1 in 10 jobs globally are connected to travel, it can't be ignored obviously. So health must suffer to allow the economy to come first.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> World Travel & Tourism Council call on G7 Governments for help - Hospitality & Catering News
> 
> 
> World Travel Tourism Council: has urgently called on the UK government, and all G7 governments to help save the struggling global travel
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hospitalityandcateringnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's how it is but that does not mean that we as INDIVIDUALS cannot make our own choice of which to put first. I am not getting on a plane till I feel it is safe to do so, regardless of how much the travel industry wants me to get on a plane to save their jobs and profits.


We shouldn't let money stand in the way of doing the right thing, even if it's hard.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> We shouldn't let money stand in the way of doing the right thing, even if it's hard.


Tell that to the 10% of people who are employed in travel.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Tell that to the 10% of people who are employed in travel.


You know, that's what the oil and gas industry says.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Okay, what is the end-game here.
> More evidence (though limited) that reinfection is possible.
> First Covid-19 reinfection documented in Hong Kong, researchers say
> 
> "But based on what happens with other coronaviruses, experts knew that immunity to SARS-CoV-2 would not last forever. People generally become susceptible again to the coronaviruses that cause the common cold after a year or even less, while protection against SARS-1 and MERS appears to last for a few years."
> 
> With no vaccine, and no cure, how long can we keep up these restrictions?


The point the press and most others tend to miss is how sick that guy got with the re-infection. Not sick at all. Asymptomatic.

As I have been trying to say for a long time, the objective is not necessarily reducing infections. The objective is to keep this virus from hurting us. Obviously virus free is the ultimate way to do that but not the only way. I suspect that guy had some very strong t-cell response when he was exposed the second time and hence he not only had no symptoms, but probably was not shedding very much virus either that would allow other people to be infected. That last part they don't discuss but I believe the two go hand in hand.

Anyway, *the end game is to keep the virus from hurting us*. That is the ball we need to keep our eye on. It does not appear that this individual got hurt and there is no evidence he hurt anyone else, from this particular infection. Keep that in mind.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> The point the press and most others tend to miss is how sick that guy got with the re-infection. Not sick at all. Asymptomatic.
> 
> As I have been trying to say for a long time, the objective is not necessarily reducing infections. The objective is the keep this virus from hurting us. Obviously virus free is the ultimate way to do that but not the only way. I suspect that guy had some very strong t-cell response when he was exposed the second time and hence he not only had no symptoms, but probably was not shedding very much virus either that would allow other people to be infected. That last part they don't discuss but I believe the two go hand in hand.
> 
> Anyway, *the end game is to keep the virus from hurting us*. That is the ball we need to keep our eye on. It does not appear that this individual got hurt and there is no evidence he hurt anyone else, from this particular infection. Keep that in mind.


I'm wondering what companies are developing treatments. It seems more and more likely that vaccines will me a mess, plus we'll have a new virus to deal with anyway.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> You know, that's what the oil and gas industry says.


Yes but the difference is that anyone who works in oil and gas should KNOW they are working in a boom/bust industry and have expectations that are in line with that reality. 

Someone working in a hotel had no way of anticipating that suddenly, the hotel would be empty. Some industries are highly volatile in terms of employment while others have always been quite stable. For those who complain about employment in the first category, I have no sympathy but for those in the second category I do.


----------



## Longtimeago

OptsyEagle said:


> The point the press and most others tend to miss is how sick that guy got with the re-infection. Not sick at all. Asymptomatic.
> 
> As I have been trying to say for a long time, the objective is not necessarily reducing infections. The objective is to keep this virus from hurting us. Obviously virus free is the ultimate way to do that but not the only way. I suspect that guy had some very strong t-cell response when he was exposed the second time and hence he not only had no symptoms, but probably was not shedding very much virus either that would allow other people to be infected. That last part they don't discuss but I believe the two go hand in hand.
> 
> Anyway, *the end game is to keep the virus from hurting us*. That is the ball we need to keep our eye on. It does not appear that this individual got hurt and there is no evidence he hurt anyone else, from this particular infection. Keep that in mind.


That's fine OptsyEagle but UNTIL we have a way to 'keep the virus from hurting us', the best we can do is try to AVOID contracting and SPREADING the virus. So it makes sense in the PRESENT to keep our eye on spread and how we are doing in avoiding that.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Yes but the difference is that anyone who works in oil and gas should KNOW they are working in a boom/bust industry and have expectations that are in line with that reality.
> 
> Someone working in a hotel had no way of anticipating that suddenly, the hotel would be empty. Some industries are highly volatile in terms of employment while others have always been quite stable. For those who complain about employment in the first category, I have no sympathy but for those in the second category I do.


We have a federal government that is actively trying to shut down the oil and gas industry. 
It is political interference, not part of an economic real boom bust cycle.

I do have sympathy for all those impacted by these changes, but I actually have more sympathy for the workers who are victims of a political agenda, vs those who are simply collateral damage due to a public health crisis, as we all are.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> We have a federal government that is actively trying to shut down the oil and gas industry.
> It is political interference, not part of an economic real boom bust cycle.
> 
> I do have sympathy for all those impacted by these changes, but I actually have more sympathy for the workers who are victims of a political agenda, vs those who are simply collateral damage due to a public health crisis, as we all are.


Your first sentence is an OPINION MrMatt and not everyone would agree with you. Regardless of what you may think the present government is doing, the oil and gas industry has ALWAYS been a boom/bust industry and that is a FACT, not an opinion.

I used to sell to the oil and gas industry in Alberta as well as many other industries across Canada at the same time. I would just shake my head when some consulting engineer told me his contract was not being renewed and he was about to be unemployed. What did he expect, I would ask myself, that's the nature of the industry. There is no job stability in the oil and gas industry and never has been since the first commercial oil business was started near Sarnia, Ontario in 1851. Isn't it about time people in that industry figured that out?

Seeing what I saw in Alberta when I was selling into the industry, it didn't take me long to figure out I would never want to put all my eggs in that one basket as a means of earning a living.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Your first sentence is an OPINION MrMatt and not everyone would agree with you. Regardless of what you may think the present government is doing, the oil and gas industry has ALWAYS been a boom/bust industry and that is a FACT, not an opinion.


My opinion, logically deduced from the words Trudeau said.
"We can't shut down the oilsands tomorrow. We need to phase them out. We need to manage the transition off of our dependence on fossil fuels.
"That is going to take time. And in the meantime, we have to manage that transition."


So yes, my opinion is that the federal government is actively working to shut down/phase out that industry. Because the PM actually said so.


I do agree Alberta has some management problems, it's common when an area happens to be sitting on the rich product of the day, and they don't disversify.


----------



## Mukhang pera

MrMatt said:


> I am very leary of giving the Government the ability to restrict travel.





MrMatt said:


> We shouldn't let money stand in the way of doing the right thing, even if it's hard.


I am having difficulty reconciling the two statements above.

If I construe the second statement correctly (please correct me if I am wrong MrMatt), then governments and everyone should bite the bullet and do whatever it takes to reduce C-19 harm, with economics taking a back seat. If that be so, then should not government have the ability to restrict travel, which has been identified as inimical to controlling the virus? In that case, for Canada, it means that the federal government must repeal s. 6 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms (mobility rights), the operative part for present purposes reads thus:

(_1) Every citizen of Canada has the right to enter, remain in and leave Canada._


----------



## MrMatt

Mukhang pera said:


> I am having difficulty reconciling the two statements above.
> 
> If I construe the second statement correctly (please correct me if I am wrong MrMatt), then governments and everyone should bite the bullet and do whatever it takes to reduce C-19 harm, with economics taking a back seat.


Act to the extent where net harm is minimized.

If the actions would result in a net increase in harm, they should not be taken.
For example, shutting down hospitals and not providing any care, except C-19 care would clearly cost more lives than are saved, such actions should not be taken.



> If that be so, then should not government have the ability to restrict travel, which has been identified as inimical to controlling the virus? In that case, for Canada, it means that the federal government must repeal s. 6 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms (mobility rights), the operative part for present purposes reads thus:
> 
> (_1) Every citizen of Canada has the right to enter, remain in and leave Canada._


You're the lawyer (aren't you?)

I specifically don't want the government to have the power to control the right to enter and leave.
I just think they should enforce the mandatory quarantine they claim they put in place months ago.

However they have the power to overrule any aspect of the constitution they want anyway. That was made pretty darn clear when they decided that you don't have freedom of association with regards to union membership.

So no, I don't think they need to repeal the charter, it's pretty much swiss cheese, unless it's a convenient political excuse. It explicitly allows methods to override it, and literally advocates for racial, ethnic and sexual discrimination.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> The point the press and most others tend to miss is how sick that guy got with the re-infection. Not sick at all. Asymptomatic.


The issue about being asymptomatic is that he is a carrier which means he can infect other people without realizing it. It's the asymptomatic and air transmission characteristics of COVID that make it so virulent.


----------



## sags

Asymptomatic is like....would you go to someone's house for dinner if they told you they aren't sure if they have the COVID ?


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> I am having difficulty reconciling the two statements above.
> 
> If I construe the second statement correctly (please correct me if I am wrong MrMatt), then governments and everyone should bite the bullet and do whatever it takes to reduce C-19 harm, with economics taking a back seat. If that be so, then should not government have the ability to restrict travel, which has been identified as inimical to controlling the virus? In that case, for Canada, it means that the federal government must repeal s. 6 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms (mobility rights), the operative part for present purposes reads thus:
> 
> (_1) Every citizen of Canada has the right to enter, remain in and leave Canada._


Isn't the legal term for two conflicting statements, 'wanting to have your cake and eat it to'?


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> The issue about being asymptomatic is that he is a carrier which means he can infect other people without realizing it. It's the asymptomatic and air transmission characteristics of COVID that make it so virulent.


Yes. But what they don't say is "How contagious" that asymptomatic person is.

Obviously the reason they don't tell us this is because it is very difficult to know, but think about it logically. When a person is asymptomatic, they basically do not have enough viruses attacking them, "at that time", to produce symptoms. Since a person sheds some percentage of their current viral load when they breathe and cough, if a person has very little virus to produce symptoms, then it is also probably true they are shedding very little virus also, that would be available to infect others. The other factor to keep in mind is that the "initial dose" a person receives will not only determine if they get an infection at all (must have a minimum infective dose to become infected) but will also be paramount to how sick they get, if they do at all. So the receipt of a very small initial dose may not become an issue at all.

So although the press like to scare us about all these asymptomatic people walking around spreading deadly virus, it is very unlikely that is the case. They may be spreading virus but how deadly is it. Probably not very. It is probably more likely that these asymptomatic people are simply walking around spreading a dose the equivalent to a healthy vaccine to the lucky people who receive it.

Obviously we don't have data or proof of the above, but the data we do have seems to more and more lean towards this actuality then it ever seems to take away from it. Just my opinion of course.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Asymptomatic is like....would you go to someone's house for dinner if they told you they aren't sure if they have the COVID ?


LOL, that's good one sags. It is in fact the only absolutely true statement someone can make when asked if they have Covid.

I recently got asked some medical questions. 'Do you have this, do you have that and for half of them, the only honest answer I could really give is 'not that I am aware of'. The questionnaires usually only allow someone to tick yes or no.

If you wanted to mess with someone asking such questions you could have some fun. 'Do you have any allergies?' answer, 'I'm sure I probably do but I do not know what they are. Logic however tells me that everyone probably has some allergies to something even if they are not aware of them.'


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> Isn't the legal term for two conflicting statements, 'wanting to have your cake and eat it to'?


Yes, but I was seeking to avoid any resort to such legal jargon and to use more everyday language.


----------



## Longtimeago

OptsyEagle said:


> Yes. But what they don't say is "How contagious" that asymptomatic person is.
> 
> Obviously the reason they don't tell us this is because it is very difficult to know, but think about it logically. When a person is asymptomatic, they basically do not have enough viruses attacking them, "at that time", to produce symptoms. Since a person sheds some percentage of their current viral load when they breathe and cough, if a person has very little virus to produce symptoms, then it is also probably true they are shedding very little virus also, that would be available to infect others. The other factor to keep in mind is that the "initial dose" a person receives will not only determine if they get an infection at all (must have a minimum infective dose to become infected) but will also be paramount to how sick they get, if they do at all. So the receipt of a very small initial dose may not become an issue at all.
> 
> So although the press like to scare us about all these asymptomatic people walking around spreading deadly virus, it is very unlikely that is the case. They may be spreading virus but how deadly is it. Probably not very. It is probably more likely that these asymptomatic people are simply walking around spreading a dose the equivalent to a healthy vaccine to the lucky people who receive it.
> 
> Obviously we don't have data or proof of the above, but the data we do have seems to more and more lean towards this actuality then it ever seems to take away from it. Just my opinion of course.


So let's apply sags question to you OptsyEagle. Would you go to dinner with someone who says he is Covid positve but asymptomatic? Low risk to you right?


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> Yes, but I was seeking to avoid any resort to such legal jargon and to use more everyday language.


That would make you a highly unusual lawyer Mukhang pera.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Obviously the reason they don't tell us this is because it is very difficult to know, but think about it logically. When a person is asymptomatic, they basically do not have enough viruses attacking them, "at that time", to produce symptoms.


Not necessarily. If you recall, most of the initial spread could be traced back to people who were asymptomatic at the time. Everyone's immune system is different, so some may be able to handle a higher viral load than others. You can look to the health care providers as examples. There were some who got sick, but not everyone did, even though you can assume that many were exposed to the same level of viral load. 

Here's a study that showed that some patients who were asymptomatic and never developed symptoms had the same viral load as symptomatic patients: Clinical Course and Molecular Viral Shedding Among Patients With SARS-CoV-2 Infection


----------



## Mukhang pera

MrMatt said:


> ...
> 
> I specifically don't want the government to have the power to control the right to enter and leave.
> I just think they should enforce the mandatory quarantine they claim they put in place months ago.
> ...


It seems to me that, short of some rather stern measures to control travel, the "mandatory quarantine" is more likely to to be ineffective. More illusory than reaI (like most of our efforts, I suppose). I would think that to be the case even with individuals who willingly play along.

Here's a close-to-home example of why I think such measures are doomed to fail. 

We live in an area where C-19 cases are pretty much unheard of. I spoke with a local a few days ago, who related that he is on his way to the U..S. to see his mother who has been diagnosed with C-19. He is age 60. Canadian and U.S. citizen. I have met mummy and she's 80+. 

In a couple of weeks or so he will drive back to Canada and will be on the road and stopping here and there after crossing the Washington/BC border, eventually getting back to the mid-Vancouver Island area. Let's say he's a good sport and agrees to "self-quarantine" (to the extent that such be possible) for 2 weeks. How about his wife, who goes out to work every day and his elementary school kid? Will hze stay away from them for 2 weeks? I already know the answer there.

In this case, there's a fair risk that he'll return with a dose of C-19 and he will have many interactions with unknowing folks along his route and at his final destination. His family members at home will then become potential carriers to seed the community with C-19. How do we prevent this kind of scenario from being played out?


----------



## OptsyEagle

Longtimeago said:


> So let's apply sags question to you OptsyEagle. Would you go to dinner with someone who says he is Covid positve but asymptomatic? Low risk to you right?


Let me put it another way. If I had to go to dinner with a person who was symptomatic or a person who was asymptomatic, I would pick the asymptomatic in a heart beat.

Look. When you are dealing with a novel virus you will be forced to make assumptions. Some of those may not end up being correct but it is something one needs to do. All I am saying is that it does not seem to be the case that asymptomatic transmission is what is causing our "severe illness, long term disability and/or death". The problem is not infections. The problem is severe illness, long term disability and/or death.

If I don't need to be around an asymptomatic carrier, I will not be. Hey, if I don't need to be around a person who is probably uninfected, I will not be either. I am just trying to point people to the area where they need to be concerned. That would be 40 year olds and older or anyone who appears to be sick. That is where a higher viral load, big enough to kill you will most likely be. With that said, am I going to go to those big parties with all the teen agers. No, but If I was 18, I probably would.


----------



## MrMatt

Mukhang pera said:


> It seems to me that, short of some rather stern measures to control travel, the "mandatory quarantine" is more likely to to be ineffective. More illusory than reaI (like most of our efforts, I suppose). I would think that to be the case even with individuals who willingly play along.
> 
> Here's a close-to-home example of why I think such measures are doomed to fail.
> 
> We live in an area where C-19 cases are pretty much unheard of. I spoke with a local a few days ago, who related that he is on his way to the U..S. to see his mother who has been diagnosed with C-19. He is age 60. Canadian and U.S. citizen. I have met mummy and she's 80+.
> 
> In a couple of weeks or so he will drive back to Canada and will be on the road and stopping here and there after crossing the Washington/BC border, eventually getting back to the mid-Vancouver Island area. Let's say he's a good sport and agrees to "self-quarantine" (to the extent that such be possible) for 2 weeks. How about his wife, who goes out to work every day and his elementary school kid? Will hze stay away from them for 2 weeks? I already know the answer there.
> 
> In this case, there's a fair risk that he'll return with a dose of C-19 and he will have many interactions with unknowing folks along his route and at his final destination. His family members at home will then become potential carriers to seed the community with C-19. How do we prevent this kind of scenario from being played out?


I completely agree, we aren't quarantining international travelers, and the government isn't even trying to enforce the 'mandatory' quarantine for such travelers.

I think it's pretty simple, we have a mandatory quarantine, he should be in the mandatory quarantine for that period. The problem is we have a government that just doesn't want to do the work.

Much better to be a hypocrite and say lots, but do little.
At least Doug Ford was honest when he said we can't enforce travel restrictions.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Not necessarily. If you recall, most of the initial spread could be traced back to people who were asymptomatic at the time. Everyone's immune system is different, so some may be able to handle a higher viral load than others. You can look to the health care providers as examples. There were some who got sick, but not everyone did, even though you can assume that many were exposed to the same level of viral load.
> 
> Here's a study that showed that some patients who were asymptomatic and never developed symptoms had the same viral load as symptomatic patients: Clinical Course and Molecular Viral Shedding Among Patients With SARS-CoV-2 Infection


Thanks for that. I don't recall much about them saying the initial spread was from asymptomatic infections. I might have heard someone assume that but I doubt they could really know that.

The report itself obviously goes on to talk about its failings, with this quote being one of the more important ones to our discussion:

_"Although the high viral load we observed in asymptomatic patients raises a distinct possibility of a risk for transmission, our study was not designed to determine this. "_

I am not sure anyone has a proper test to determine the level of infective transmission between one person to the next. I imagine my test of a symptomatic person being more infective then an asymptomatic person since they must have more virus in them to make them that sick, is not overly sound either. It just seems to coincide with what I have been seeing and my understanding of how viruses work, but I am always open to correction. That is why I am here.

The other concern with this study is the use of people only between the ages of 22-36, with the median age 25. Not sure why they did that. Obviously older people would generate larger viral loads, probably making it easier to distinguish between the asymptomatic person compared to the symptomatic person.

By the way, if my theories are correct, one should probably see a larger percentage of asymptomatic infections in younger people compared to older people, as a percentage of their total infections. In other words the probability that an infection results in an asymptomatic outcome would be higher in the younger generation to the older. I wonder if anyone has profiled that? If that theory failed then perhaps the rest of mine might start to disintegrate as well, but so far I am still convinced that asymptomatic infections are a lot less concerning to the infected person, and the rest of us, then the symptomatic type.

That said, thanks again for the study. Keep them coming.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> The report itself obviously goes on to talk about its failings, with this quote being one of the more important ones to our discussion:
> 
> _"Although the high viral load we observed in asymptomatic patients raises a distinct possibility of a risk for transmission, our study was not designed to determine this. "_


I agree. My main take away is that the viral load can be the same for both asymptomatic patients and symptomatic patients, nothing more than that.

It's very difficult to set up the gold standard of double blind study to determine the risk for transmission, but we take what we can.



OptsyEagle said:


> The other concern with this study is the use of people only between the ages of 22-36, with the median age 25. Not sure why they did that. Obviously older people would generate larger viral loads, probably making it easier to distinguish between the asymptomatic person compared to the symptomatic person.


I don't know about that assumption. I would suspect that older people have a weaker immune system so that they would be more susceptible to lower viral loads, not so much that they have higher. In which case they exhibit symptoms earlier.



OptsyEagle said:


> In other words the probability that an infection results in an asymptomatic outcome would be higher in the younger generation to the older. I wonder if anyone has profiled that?


Could be; however, the obvious thing is that unless you have reason to have been in contact with a symptomatic person, you won't be tested. If you come into contact with asymptomatic people, you would not likely get tested because to your knowledge you didn't come into contact with someone who has it. In other words, it's likely that the numbers of asymptomatic people is a lot higher than what we think. That's where the contact tracing comes in handy.

At any case, there are still plenty of unknowns and it will take years before many questions can be conclusively answered. In the meantime, we work with what info we have and do the risk analysis to determine which actions are worth taking compared to the increased/decreased risks of infection.


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## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> I don't know about that assumption. I would suspect that older people have a weaker immune system so that they would be more susceptible to lower viral loads, not so much that they have higher. In which case they exhibit symptoms earlier.


I agree that older people would be more susceptible to a lower initial dose of the virus, but I also assume that the weaker immune system would allow for a faster growth of the virus, within their bodies, due to a slower rate of neutralization of the virus coming from that weaker immune system. Which would probably be why a lower dose of the virus can still grow to become a too large and therefore deadly amount.

Anyway, we certainly have more assumptions then data but as you say we work with what info we have.


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## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> but I also assume that the weaker immune system would allow for a faster growth of the virus, within their bodies, due to a slower rate of neutralization of the virus coming from that weaker immune system.


After I wrote my last response, I realized that was what you were thinking, and I agree it would be a reasonable assumption.


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## OptsyEagle

I think these differences in immune response is obviously an exponential difference between younger and older individuals, as we can tell from just the raw numbers of who is getting sick and of course dying.

That is why I would have preferred that study to have included some people much older then 36. If the median age was 25 then 1/2 of them were 22 to 25. I am not sure there is much difference between a symptomatic and asymptomatic person at that young of age. Perhaps some had a tickle in their throat. 75% of cigarette smokers and 99% of marijuana smokers would have a tickle in their throats all the time. Don't ask me about their morning cough rituals. Of course, I did not get to see these individuals who were studied and it does not sound like finding out their levels of transmission, was the major point of the study when it was started. It sounds like that might have been an after thought, but they did do a pretty good job of pulling out the relevant data.

Anyway, that said, I doubt I am going to go to a dinner party with them if I ever get invited so I suppose we need to be alert to their existence but I still think the dangerous virus is transmitted by 40 to 50 year olds, who mostly get very sick and it is given to 60 to 90 year olds who may very well die from it.


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## andrewf

I don't think symptomaticity and viral load are all that strongly correlated. Symptoms are more immune response, which can vary considerably between individuals. That is to say, asymptomatic cases can have significant viral loads.


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## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> I don't think symptomaticity and viral load are all that strongly correlated. Symptoms are more immune response, which can vary considerably between individuals. That is to say, asymptomatic cases can have significant viral loads.


You may be right. The way I see it is we have these viruses attacking us. If we only have a few our immune system probably fights them off without even alerting us to the problem (asymptomatic). If we have quite a few more, we fight them off, but while doing so we get fairly sick. If we end up with a lot more, we die. That is how I see it. Obviously there will be some exceptions but the more viruses we have, or should I say the higher the viral load we have, the sicker we will get. If it takes 10 viruses to kill a cell, then 1,000 viruses can kill 100 cells. 1,000,000 viruses can kill 100,000 cells. The more viruses the dead cells. The more dead cells the sicker a person is going to get.

Now why we have so many viruses (viral load), at any given time, will be a function of a combination of factors that will include the initial dose we received, the effectiveness of our immune system in reducing them, how much time has gone by since the initial infection.

The exceptions to how sick a person will get will vary with the original state of their health before they got infected, but other then that, the more active virus one has the sicker one should get.


----------



## sags

Canada ranks at the top in COVID pandemic response.









US and UK are bottom of the pile in rankings of governments' handling of coronavirus pandemic | CNN


Americans rank dead last -- by a long way -- among citizens of more than a dozen countries who were asked whether their nation is more united now than it was before the coronavirus pandemic, according to a survey released Thursday.




www.cnn.com


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## Longtimeago

OptsyEagle said:


> You may be right. The way I see it is we have these viruses attacking us. If we only have a few our immune system probably fights them off without even alerting us to the problem (asymptomatic). If we have quite a few more, we fight them off, but while doing so we get fairly sick. If we end up with a lot more, we die. That is how I see it. Obviously there will be some exceptions but the more viruses we have, or should I say the higher the viral load we have, the sicker we will get. If it takes 10 viruses to kill a cell, then 1,000 viruses can kill 100 cells. 1,000,000 viruses can kill 100,000 cells. The more viruses the dead cells. The more dead cells the sicker a person is going to get.
> 
> Now why we have so many viruses (viral load), at any given time, will be a function of a combination of factors that will include the initial dose we received, the effectiveness of our immune system in reducing them, how much time has gone by since the initial infection.
> 
> The exceptions to how sick a person will get will vary with the original state of their health before they got infected, but other then that, the more active virus one has the sicker one should get.


You can theorize and analyze the math all you want but it does not change a thing.

Maybe you can't remember back to February when things started. The story then was about one man who picked up the virus in Singapore, then spread it in France before returning home to the UK where he FINALLY displayed a symptom, meanwhile spreading it in the UK before that symptom came up. All told he infected 11 people before anyone realized he was infected. Those he infected were in all age groups including a child age 9.

Asymptomatic is how EVERYONE starts out, it is only later some do show symptoms and some remain asymptomatic. You seem to want to demonstrate your ability to analyze data when it takes very little analysis to know what matters.

Anyone can have it, anyone who does can spread it. The virus doesn't care what age anyone is, it will take any path it can to spread. While you are busy analyzing the data, someone else is dying that would not have died IF IF IF everyone had followed the guidelines and made sure they remained 6 feet apart at all times.

Young people have the same responsibility to do that as any other age group. I really don't care how likely any given person is to get very sick or not, I care about them spreading the virus and they can ALL do that.









From Singapore to UK via the Alps: how one man spread coronavirus - France 24


From Singapore to UK via the Alps: how one man spread coronavirus




www.france24.com


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> It seems to me that, short of some rather stern measures to control travel, the "mandatory quarantine" is more likely to to be ineffective. More illusory than reaI (like most of our efforts, I suppose). I would think that to be the case even with individuals who willingly play along.
> 
> Here's a close-to-home example of why I think such measures are doomed to fail.
> 
> We live in an area where C-19 cases are pretty much unheard of. I spoke with a local a few days ago, who related that he is on his way to the U..S. to see his mother who has been diagnosed with C-19. He is age 60. Canadian and U.S. citizen. I have met mummy and she's 80+.
> 
> In a couple of weeks or so he will drive back to Canada and will be on the road and stopping here and there after crossing the Washington/BC border, eventually getting back to the mid-Vancouver Island area. Let's say he's a good sport and agrees to "self-quarantine" (to the extent that such be possible) for 2 weeks. How about his wife, who goes out to work every day and his elementary school kid? Will hze stay away from them for 2 weeks? I already know the answer there.
> 
> In this case, there's a fair risk that he'll return with a dose of C-19 and he will have many interactions with unknowing folks along his route and at his final destination. His family members at home will then become potential carriers to seed the community with C-19. How do we prevent this kind of scenario from being played out?


I think the bottom line is that we cannot stop it 100%, we can only try to LIMIT the spread with the various methods we have in place re travel, group gatherings, etc. It is not an 'all or nothing' scenario at all. Like many things, what seem to make sense in general will have failings in specific situations. Very few laws, restrictions, etc. make sense 100% of the time.

Your local travelling to the US is a good example of where the restrictions allow a potential problem. Meanwhile on the news today a woman with cancer is trying to get the government to let her fiance come to be with her from the UK and being denied because he is not an 'immediate family member', thus eliminating a potential issue.

Our restrictions on such travel are much stricter than the USA's restrictions. Yet we can see the hypocrisy in your local being allowed to leave and return with the potential issues while we stop any potential issues with allowing a fiance to enter Canada on the other hand. I find it hyporisy that we are allowing sports teams to travel between the USA and Canada. If they can, why can't the woman with cancer have her fiance come in as long as he quarantines on arrival? Is that fair, no, I don't think so but again we don't have a 100% fair all the time world.









'Heartless' officials bar fiance of cancer sufferer from coming into Canada


'It’s so ridiculous that we can fill bars and restaurants, we can have gatherings of 100 people outside, but my one fiance is still being barred entry into…




nationalpost.com





Is it fair to call someone a 'heartless official' though? I don't think that is fair either. I have to believe that everyone in authority is trying to do the best they can while having to try and balance, health, the economy, compassion and various other factors, all at the same time. It will never be 100% right and fair all the time.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Longtimeago said:


> You can theorize and analyze the math all you want but it does not change a thing.
> 
> Maybe you can't remember back to February when things started. The story then was about one man who picked up the virus in Singapore, then spread it in France before returning home to the UK where he FINALLY displayed a symptom, meanwhile spreading it in the UK before that symptom came up. All told he infected 11 people before anyone realized he was infected. Those he infected were in all age groups including a child age 9.
> 
> Asymptomatic is how EVERYONE starts out, it is only later some do show symptoms and some remain asymptomatic. You seem to want to demonstrate your ability to analyze data when it takes very little analysis to know what matters.
> 
> Anyone can have it, anyone who does can spread it. The virus doesn't care what age anyone is, it will take any path it can to spread. While you are busy analyzing the data, someone else is dying that would not have died IF IF IF everyone had followed the guidelines and made sure they remained 6 feet apart at all times.
> 
> Young people have the same responsibility to do that as any other age group. I really don't care how likely any given person is to get very sick or not, I care about them spreading the virus and they can ALL do that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From Singapore to UK via the Alps: how one man spread coronavirus - France 24
> 
> 
> From Singapore to UK via the Alps: how one man spread coronavirus
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.france24.com


I did not see that. Thank you for the link. I hear a lot about asymptomatic transmissions but rarely do they talk about how sick the other people got. Obviously we need more cases to be sure, since this could be a rare case of infections to immune compromised individuals, which of course would be a problem no matter how they get infected. I have never taken exception to that. Anyway, I may have to rethink some of these things. This one is a real head scratcher, but that is probably because there are so many variables resulting in way to many different observations messing up the results.

I will take exception to your point that it takes very little analysis to know what matters. I never said that everyone staying away from everyone would not be the best thing but since that is not going to happen in my lifetime nor yours, I think a little more thought is required to help us stay safe in the world we actually live in. We know the government is working in their own best interest, which not always is ours so until then I will need to keep thinking for myself. I will let you dream about whatever world you want to believe we could possibly maybe live in.

Thanks again for the link.


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## andrewf

This seems appropriate:


----------



## Longtimeago

OptsyEagle said:


> Obviously we need more cases to be sure, since this could be a rare case of infections to immune compromised individuals, which of course would be a problem no matter how they get infected.


OptsyEagle, that was simply one example of how the virus spreads that happened to get singled out and reported on because it was one of the first cases outside China. It is in no way 'rare', it is simply an example of how easily and quickly the virus can spread. How else do you think we got where we are today? Everyone is asymptomatic until they no longer are. 

Some people remain asymptomatic throughout while others develop symptoms. Both can transmit the disease to others, along the way. The guy in the link did not transmit to only immune compromised individuals, he transmitted it to 11 people, a cross section of people, not 11 immune compromised people. One or two of them probably were immune compromised, that's just simple logic, but not all.

We don't need more cases to know that the virus doesn't care about someone's age or whether they are immune compromised or not. It will infect everyone it can get to including a 20 year old who then passes it on to others.

So I will say again, what matters right now does not require much analysis. Until we have an effective vaccine or treatment, what matters is that we maintain distancing, etc.


----------



## OptsyEagle

The virus does seem to care about someones age as we see from the hospitalization rates and deaths. Perhaps the same discrimination is associated to the amount of shedding of the virus to others. Also, we have no idea that this individual transmitted the virus to a cross section of people. With over 20 million people infected the chances of 11 immune compromised individuals is a lot higher then zero.

Anyway, your link is probably a little more conclusive then my theory so I will re-look at my theories. Also you keep talking about people being asymptomatic until they are not as if that is being contested. My point is how contagious are they when they are asymptomatic compared to when they are symptomatic. Both can transmit, but one may very well transmit virus easier then the other. That is the only thing I am talking about and I would say at this stage the answer is "we really have no idea". Hence why I must theorize in order to figure some of it out.

It may seem like a mute point but we all have to make choices out there in the real world. The world where the virus is. Many perhaps never gave it any thought but if you happen to be in a retail store and two cash's open up and one is operated by a 52 year old and the other a 17 year old, which one is safer. I will assume for this question that neither is coughing or sweating from the forehead. These are the little things I theorize about.

Anyway, thanks for your help.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> My point is how contagious are they when they are asymptomatic compared to when they are symptomatic. Both can transmit, but one may very well transmit virus easier then the other. That is the only thing I am talking about and I would say at this stage the answer is "we really have no idea". Hence why I must theorize in order to figure some of it out.


My summary reading up on this is ...
1> asymptomatic - unlikely to transmit but possible
2> presymptomatic - somewhat likely to transmit
3> symptomatic - very likely to transmit

The data definitely isn't as clear for 1 & 2 (mainly from contact tracing). It's pretty well know for 3 as coughing, sneezing, etc really promote spread and chances are their hands are infected as well so include touching.

Also, just for clarity, asymptomatic should not be substituted for presymptomatic.

One key point is to determine transfer for presymptomatic cases. Hopefully symptomatic people are acting responsible and staying home but if in the presymptomatic stage they are likely still going out doing normal activities.


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## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Also, just for clarity, asymptomatic should not be substituted for presymptomatic.


A presymptomatic case is an asymptomatic case, until it becomes a symptomatic case.

If you look at someone today and they have active virus, but have no symptoms they are asymptomatic, they may also be presymptomatic, but this is not known until they become symptomatic.


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## OptsyEagle

The problem with all this analysis, as I stated above, is the insane number of variables. For example, there is evidence when it comes to the flu of what they call "super spreaders". Some believe that the lions share of flu infections are caused by these individuals and there is a reasonable chance they exist with C-19 as well. So even if I am right, that symptomatic people are more infectious then asymptomatic individuals, it may be the case that an asymptomatic super spreader can infect a magnitude larger number of people then a symptomatic non-super spreader. Perhaps the person in the article that LTA posted is a super spreader. Who knows. I assume super spreaders have something about them that makes them this way. Perhaps it is those people that tend to spray it instead of say it. Who knows.

Obviously the safest option is to avoid all other people but since we actually cannot do that and many of us don't want to do that, it would be nice to get a feel for where the danger is the greatest. That is why I persist in this.

Yes. I suspect most asymptomatic people are probably pre-symptomatic. To be honest, I would actually call a person that was infected but never ever developed any symptoms at all, as the same as a pre-symtomatic person but one that received such a small initial dose of C-19, in relation to their immune system's ability to fight it, that they fought it all off before any symptoms arose. The others simply received a higher initial dose in relation to their immune system abilities and could not get through it without some type of symptoms showing up. So in other words the only difference is the initial dose in conjunction with quite a few other variables pertaining to the individuals themselves.


----------



## james4beach

I agree @OptsyEagle it would be great to know what category of people are the most infectious / dangerous. But that makes the argument for being overly cautious right now, so that we buy time, and therefore can figure this stuff out.

Eventually we will figure out more of this (perhaps in a few months) which means we can be more strategic overall, letting most people work and go about as normal. However *if we jump to conclusions and are wrong*, and the disease ends up spreading out of control again, then we'll get far worse health and economic outcomes.

In my view, being very cautious now is the most logical action because it buys time, so that we can figure out how the disease works, how it spreads, without forcing us into an emergency situation.


----------



## Longtimeago

james4beach said:


> I agree @OptsyEagle it would be great to know what category of people are the most infectious / dangerous. But that makes the argument for being overly cautious right now, so that we buy time, and therefore can figure this stuff out.
> 
> Eventually we will figure out more of this (perhaps in a few months) which means we can be more strategic overall, letting most people work and go about as normal. However *if we jump to conclusions and are wrong*, and the disease ends up spreading out of control again, then we'll get far worse health and economic outcomes.
> 
> In my view, being very cautious now is the most logical action because it buys time, so that we can figure out how the disease works, how it spreads, without forcing us into an emergency situation.


Exactly, we have to err on the side of caution. I find it telling that OptsyEagle writes, "_Obviously the safest option is to avoid all other people but since we actually cannot do that and many of us don't want to do that, it would be nice to get a feel for where the danger is the greatest. That is why I persist in this."_

How I read that is, 'I don't want to avoid people and want there to be a way for me to know where the danger is greatest so that I can do what I WANT, mix with people.'

To that I would respond, it is everyone ELSE'S life you are gambling with, not just your own. Mix and interact with as few people as possible. That is the responsible way to behave even if it isn't the way you WANT to behave.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Longtimeago said:


> Exactly, we have to err on the side of caution. I find it telling that OptsyEagle writes, "_Obviously the safest option is to avoid all other people but since we actually cannot do that and many of us don't want to do that, it would be nice to get a feel for where the danger is the greatest. That is why I persist in this."_
> 
> How I read that is, 'I don't want to avoid people and want there to be a way for me to know where the danger is greatest so that I can do what I WANT, mix with people.'
> 
> To that I would respond, it is everyone ELSE'S life you are gambling with, not just your own. Mix and interact with as few people as possible. That is the responsible way to behave even if it isn't the way you WANT to behave.


Well you read it wrong then. I have no choice but to live in a world with people so I want to know where the danger is. Stop reading more into it then is there. I think I have made my position on this crystal clear.

Look. I interact with very few people, simply because that is the safest thing to do, but I can't stay away from everyone. I wish I could, but I can't. Just so you know, I am well above the ages of 15 to 40 and I have no children at all. So I have no personal reasons for my opinions. It just comes from what I am observing or think I am observing. If you see it differently please feel free to point it out. I don't want to be wrong anymore then you want me to be wrong.

That said, I am just trying to figure this stuff out so that I can navigate the world I actually live in. If people are going to get together, then I simply ask "how does this affect me and what do I need to do about it". Whining on about other people's behavior when those same people could not care less and it will do no good towards your safety is futile. I have no problem with pointing out these observations, but again, very little will change and most of this could have been predicted in advance. It is what it is.


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## Prairie Guy

The CDC recently adjusted their numbers to show that only 6% of all Covid deaths list Covid as the only cause. The other 94% had other and average of 2.6 serious health issues that were contributing factors.

"For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death."





__





COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics


Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.




www.cdc.gov


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## MrMatt

Prairie Guy said:


> The CDC recently adjusted their numbers to show that only 6% of all Covid deaths list Covid as the only cause. The other 94% had other and average of 2.6 serious health issues that were contributing factors.
> 
> "For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
> 
> 
> Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov


Honestly I can't decouple the data.
Are they saying that 1/3 of all COVID19 deaths also had the flu?
Another 1/3 had "respiratory failure"? How do we know this wasn't respiratory failure due to COVID19?


----------



## sags

Unfortunately, the CDC has been corrupted by politics and people don't believe them anymore. 

The latest news is that 2 people in the US have been re-infected by the virus. The second case is the most disturbing.

A young guy had the virus and his symptoms were not severe. He later tested "negative" several times and then later became sick again and tested positive. This time he was very sick and was in the ICU on a ventilator. 

This is the 3rd documented case of re-infection. Scientists are saying we may need to take several shots of vaccine if one is ever developed.


----------



## Spudd

MrMatt said:


> Honestly I can't decouple the data.
> Are they saying that 1/3 of all COVID19 deaths also had the flu?
> Another 1/3 had "respiratory failure"? How do we know this wasn't respiratory failure due to COVID19?


It has been known for ages that co-morbidities such as heart disease increase the fatality rate from COVID-19. This statistic is just saying that 6% of people who died from COVID-19 didn't have a co-morbidity listed on the death certificate, while 94% of people did.


----------



## MrMatt

Spudd said:


> It has been known for ages that co-morbidities such as heart disease increase the fatality rate from COVID-19. This statistic is just saying that 6% of people who died from COVID-19 didn't have a co-morbidity listed on the death certificate, while 94% of people did.


My point is respiratory failure is a symptom of COVID19, I'm not sure how you can distinguish between them dying of COVID19, or that this specific COVID19 symptom, was somehow not COVID19.


----------



## sags

Blood tests, imaging tests, biopsies, autopsies......the doctors and pathologists can tell the differences between the different forms of lung disease.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Blood tests, imaging tests, biopsies, autopsies......the doctors and pathologists can tell the differences between the different forms of lung disease.


No, they can't. That's my point.


----------



## andrewf

Spudd said:


> It has been known for ages that co-morbidities such as heart disease increase the fatality rate from COVID-19. This statistic is just saying that 6% of people who died from COVID-19 didn't have a co-morbidity listed on the death certificate, while 94% of people did.


So what? 70% of people are overweight. Of course there will be a high rate of comorbidity.


----------



## Spudd

andrewf said:


> So what? 70% of people are overweight. Of course there will be a high rate of comorbidity.


Exactly.


----------



## Spudd

MrMatt said:


> My point is respiratory failure is a symptom of COVID19, I'm not sure how you can distinguish between them dying of COVID19, or that this specific COVID19 symptom, was somehow not COVID19.


If they developed respiratory failure due to COVID-19 the death certificate will (or at least could) list both things. If for some crazy reason they were already suffering from respiratory failure when they got COVID-19, then it would also list both things. In the latter case, it would be hard to know if they died from the original issue or the added stress of the COVID, but one would assume that the COVID at least contributed.


----------



## andrewf

We can't just brush off all the deaths with comorbidities as inevitable deaths. Many people with such comorbidities have many years of life yet.


----------



## Money172375

Interesting to think about all the businesses and industries that are tied to white-collar office jobs.......coffee shops, dry cleaners, photocopiers, paper, clothiers, cleaners....









Remote Work Is Killing the Hidden Trillion-Dollar Office Economy


From airlines to Starbucks, a massive part of our economy hinges on white-collar workers returning to the office




marker.medium.com


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> Interesting to think about all the businesses and industries that are tied to white-collar office jobs.......coffee shops, dry cleaners, photocopiers, paper, clothiers, cleaners....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Remote Work Is Killing the Hidden Trillion-Dollar Office Economy
> 
> 
> From airlines to Starbucks, a massive part of our economy hinges on white-collar workers returning to the office
> 
> 
> 
> 
> marker.medium.com


Yes, the 'domino effect' is no doubt occurring in many parts of the economy. People aren't flying, so hotels will suffer, hotel workers will suffer and so everywhere they spend their money will suffer. There is nothing unique about the white collar workers in that regard, it is just one example of how the domino effect comes into play.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Yes, the 'domino effect' is no doubt occurring in many parts of the economy. People aren't flying, so hotels will suffer, hotel workers will suffer and so everywhere they spend their money will suffer. There is nothing unique about the white collar workers in that regard, it is just one example of how the domino effect comes into play.


I look at it a bit differently, in that white collar workers are STILL working, but the change in their work location is driving all the change. I don’t think this type of domino was ever for foreseen. Whereas, we’ve seen travel related dominoes after 9/11.


----------



## calm

Economic Disparity and COVID in New York City
By Peter Van Buren
August 23, 2020




__





Hooper's War – Peter Van Buren » Economic Disparity and COVID in New York City » A Novel of WWII Japan







wemeantwell.com


----------



## james4beach

The question keeps coming up, if everyone is going to catch this anyway, why should we inconvenience ourselves by wearing masks and avoiding social contact?

Here's the answer: because it buys time as treatments are steadily improved. Healthcare learns what to do about this virus, but it takes time. One example is that initially, hospitals were misusing ventilators and causing harm. Since then, they learned more about how to properly use ventilators, which has increased survival rates.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/steroids-covid-19-1.5709073

Now they have confirmed another suspicion, which is that cheap old steroid drugs help critical ill patients. Giving the patient steroids reduces deaths by 20%.

Treating a hospital patient for COVID today is much better than treating one in February. In a couple months, treatments will be even better, so fewer people will die from it.


----------



## bgc_fan

Here's a new theory on COVID mechanism, and possible treatments: A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

There's some indication that vitamin D may help.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Here's a new theory on COVID mechanism, and possible treatments: A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged
> 
> There's some indication that vitamin D may help.


I always kind of wondered exactly why they call Covid-19 a respiratory illness when it seemed to affect so many other organs in the body. I guessed that it was because, for the very ill, it seem to attack their lungs first. That said, it seemed to be an all encompassing, non discriminating virus when it came to where in the body it was going to become a problem.

Thanks for the article. Very interesting.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> I always kind of wondered exactly why they call Covid-19 a respiratory illness when it seemed to affect so many other organs in the body. I guessed that it was because, for the very ill, it seem to attack their lungs first. That said, it seemed to be an all encompassing, non discriminating virus when it came to where in the body it was going to become a problem.
> 
> Thanks for the article. Very interesting.


It's even believed to cause strokes in some people (including young people). It seems to affect all kinds of organs.


----------



## sags

The medical response to COVID is to chase the symptoms as they present themselves, using time tested medicines and procedures.

Increased inflammation.......use steroids. Blood thickening and clots........blood thinning medications. Lung problems........oxygen therapy.

What I find disturbing about COVID.........and why I believe it is a man made virus, is the diverse ways the virus attacks the body.

It is almost a perfect weapon. Did the virus mutate to such a destructive form on it's own or was it the product of some laboratory engineering ?

I don't believe the virus escape is deliberate, but more likely an accident coming out of the top level military lab in Wuhan, China.

I would like to see someone calculate the odds of such a damaging virus starting to spread a couple of blocks away from a lab that studies such viruses and had recently had obtained strains of it from the top level lab in Winnipeg via Chinese scientists working there.

I think the US knows......and Trump knows and hints at it, but world wars have started over much less provocation than hundreds of thousands of deaths.


----------



## sags

The governments have many secrets.

It wasn't until fairly recently that it became public knowledge about the Damascus missile problem in Arkansas. An accidental dropping of a wrench into a silo housing a hydrogen bomb 3000 times more powerful than ALL the bombs dropped in WW2, including the two atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki created a nightmare scenario.

The wrench bounced off a silo wall and then hit the missile rupturing the casing and causing a fuel leak. There was widespread panic in the Air Force and government that the bomb would explode and turn the entire State of Arkansas into one big crater. The Air Force evacuated the silo command centre and lost all information on what was going on in the silo. But for a few brave men, one of whom was killed.......it could have been a catastrophe such as no other.

The accident is documented in the book and movie Command and Control.......but it is the tip of the iceberg. Nuclear weapons have been accidentally dropped into people's backyards, dropped on air force bases, into the ocean, burnt up in bomber crashes. There are thousands of such "incidents", generals and Secretaries of the Air Force have been fired, and bombs accidentally dropped went through all the procedures to explode, except for the last one which was a cheap valve that fortunately malfunctioned.....but the public is largely kept in the dark.

As one author who researched it for 6 years said...if there was one hydrogen explosion causing cataclysmic damage...the safety record would still be 99.99450 %.

But that isn't good enough. They have achieved 100% safety thank goodness, because anything less would have horrific consequences.

Google .....Eric Schlosser or Command and Control for more information. Maybe not though. It is very scary to read.

Point is.......we don't know what they don't tell us, and I suspect the COVID falls into that designation.


----------



## calm

In TV-Land they are saying that schools don't have the freezer space to store the vaccine.
I was surprised to hear all the preparation required to have a vaccine available for shipment.

"The facilities, being built close to UPS air cargo hubs in the United States and Germany, will together house 600 freezers, each capable of storing 48,000 vials of vaccine. The deep-freezers are being set up to store the more fragile vaccines, including those that are based on messenger RNA (mRNA) to produce viral proteins in the body. "


----------



## Longtimeago

I'm not sure I am happy with this outcome regarding quarantining of returning Canadians.








Canadian returning to B.C. without a quarantine plan says she was told 'figure it out'


A B.C. woman who returned home from a year overseas found out the hard way that she wasn't prepared for quarantine.



bc.ctvnews.ca





My understanding was they must have a plan or would be put into a mandatory government quarantine location. It seems that is not the case.


----------



## Prairie Guy

So, according to sags Covid is just like a hydrogen bomb. 🤣


----------



## sags

It appears the accolades for South Korea's response to the COVID were premature.

A resurgence of the virus has filled up hospital ICU capacity. This virus is not going away with a whimper.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-world-sept3-1.5710477


----------



## sags

Prairie Guy said:


> So, according to sags Covid is just like a hydrogen bomb. 🤣


No........more like the Chinese were working on development of a biological weapon and it escaped the laboratory.

The nuclear missile comparison illustrates how little the public knows about what is going on around them.


----------



## calm

Lots of events happening that we are not fully aware of ....

Japan has a reactor still spewing a highly radioactive mist into the air and has been doing so since March 2011.

After WWII ....

"The U.S. Army now admits that it secretly dumped 64 million pounds of nerve and mustard agents into the sea, along with 400,000 chemical-filled bombs, land mines and rockets and more than 500 tons of radioactive waste - either tossed overboard or packed into the holds of scuttled vessels."

Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of highly toxic materials lie scattered on ocean floors - in barrels that are rusting away and releasing their lethal contents. While we worry about weapons of mass destruction in the hands of rogue states, the West's legacy may prove far more dangerous.
During the Second World War, Canada produced more chemical weapons than any other of the Allies. After the war, and during the Cold War era, massive weapons stockpiles were simply dumped into the ocean by the United States, Britain, Canada, the Soviet Union and Germany. They were considered buried and done with forever. Information about known dumps was either mishandled or suppressed.

Russia’s ‘slow-motion Chernobyl’ at sea
Beneath some of the world’s busiest fisheries, radioactive submarines from the Soviet era lie disintegrating on the seafloor. Decades later, Russia is preparing to retrieve them.
By Alec Luhn
September 01, 2020








Russia’s ‘slow-motion Chernobyl’ at sea


Beneath some of the world’s busiest fisheries, radioactive submarines from the Soviet era lie disintegrating on the seafloor. Decades later, Russia is preparing to retrieve them.




www.bbc.com





Cleansing seas of floating plastic waste is a ‘Waste of time & resources’:
September 2020








Basic principles for development and implementation of plastic clean-up technologies: What can we learn from fisheries management?


Plastic pollution compromises ocean health, with large amounts of plastics continuing to enter marine and coastal environments. Various mitigative eng…




www.sciencedirect.com


----------



## sags

Alien beings watching our planet may come to the conclusion that somewhere during our evolution something went amiss and we aren't worth saving.


----------



## james4beach

Well it looks like one of my friends (also a business partner) has COVID. He's in another country.

He's actually been weirdly sick, off and on, over the last few months. None of them were that serious but it kept putting him out of commission. To be honest, I think he made a mistake by not listening to his body. He had been weakened over the last few months with more than one cold. He did get a previous test, which said he didn't have COVID, and maybe that gave him a false sense of security.

He's my age, but he HAS been socializing, and lives with roommates who don't distance. Many guests and friends have been coming to that house and there have been parties at the house (not something he organized, but it happened in the shared place). It seems plausible that he caught it from the various people who have been within the house, or roommates.


----------



## sags

Watching the news last night, there is a support and lobby group formed of 100,000 people who had COVID and are now suffering from a wide range of weird symptoms and problems months later. Their doctors are baffled and playing catch up as the symptoms keep changing.

Onset of diabetes, heart disease, tachcardia, atrial fibrillation, kidney and liver failure, glaucoma, headaches, neurological problems.......the list is unbelievable.

Some experts have been conducting studies on them and have concluded that COVID is primarily a "blood vessel disease" and affects all areas of the body.

COVID causes long lasting inflammation of the blood vessels. Now they can focus on finding treatments or medications that work effectively against it.

It should be noted.........many of those suffering long term affects are younger adults, who were previously in excellent health with no other health problems.

The theory that younger people are "safer" from COVID is false. They may not die as often from it, but are suffering from the long term effects

Opening up the economy, schools etc is a big mistake. We will be suffering the same outbreaks as are happening everywhere else that opened up.

We are not only not immune from a second wave of COVID. We are actively encouraging it. It isn't "safe" until the infection rate is 0 for 28 days.


----------



## andrewf

james4beach said:


> Well it looks like one of my friends (also a business partner) has COVID. He's in another country.
> 
> He's actually been weirdly sick, off and on, over the last few months. None of them were that serious but it kept putting him out of commission. To be honest, I think he made a mistake by not listening to his body. He had been weakened over the last few months with more than one cold. He did get a previous test, which said he didn't have COVID, and maybe that gave him a false sense of security.
> 
> He's my age, but he HAS been socializing, and lives with roommates who don't distance. Many guests and friends have been coming to that house and there have been parties at the house (not something he organized, but it happened in the shared place). It seems plausible that he caught it from the various people who have been within the house, or roommates.


I was visiting a site for work this week. I received notification that someone who was working there that day has tested positive, but that I didn't come in close contact with them. Obviously it is in Ontario so everyone was wearing masks.


----------



## sags

Infections are climbing again in Canada, and all over the world.

The virus does not appear to be seasonal. Some countries like India, France, South Korea, Sweden......are suffering new outbreaks.

Provincial numbers in Canada are rising again, just as businesses and schools re-open.

Schools are reporting outbreaks already. Alberta has reported several cases from primary schools.

Astro Zeneca halted the trials for their vaccine for the 2nd time, due to a patient suffering severe adverse effects. The situation is evolving.

No sense in fooling ourselves. This is going to be a rough winter. We normally decorate our front porch 4 times a year.

Summer, Canada Day, Halloween, and Christmas. It looks like we will be skipping Halloween this year.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Watching the news last night, there is a support and lobby group formed of 100,000 people who had COVID and are now suffering from a wide range of weird symptoms and problems months later. Their doctors are baffled and playing catch up as the symptoms keep changing.
> 
> Onset of diabetes, heart disease, tachcardia, atrial fibrillation, kidney and liver failure, glaucoma, headaches, neurological problems.......the list is unbelievable.
> . . .
> It should be noted.........many of those suffering long term affects are younger adults, who were previously in excellent health with no other health problems.


Yes. Young people are not safe from COVID. It's sad that they can't understand the danger, both to them and the community.

This isn't just a cold or flu, though many people still seem to believe that.


----------



## calm

'Play it down': Trump admits to concealing the true threat of coronavirus in new Woodward book
By Jamie Gangel, Jeremy Herb and Elizabeth Stuart
September 09, 2020








'Play it down': Trump admits to concealing the true threat of coronavirus in new Woodward book


President Donald Trump admitted he knew weeks before the first confirmed US coronavirus death that the virus was dangerous, airborne, highly contagious and "more deadly than even your strenuous flus," and that he repeatedly played it down publicly, according to legendary journalist Bob Woodward...




www.cnn.com


----------



## sags

This is huge and after all the damage that Trump has done, it is a microscopic virus that brings him down. The virus is smarter than Republicans.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The virus is smarter than Republicans.


One could argue the virus is smarter then a lot of us but that would not be totally true. The fact is that we understand the virus well enough to obliterate it from our existence...but...we humans have a serious weakness, that the virus does not. We let our emotions override our brains.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> This is huge and after all the damage that Trump has done, it is a microscopic virus that brings him down. The virus is smarter than Republicans.


It's not huge, it's barely even news. However, Cuomo seeding the care homes with Covid positive seniors and killing thousands is real news.

A man executing a 5-year old child in broad daylight is news but the news the left prefers elevates a violent sex offender to hero status.


----------



## sags

Wishing away the virus, praying away the virus, or cursing the virus hasn't changed anything.

The only thing that has changed outcomes is what you list above.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sandras_griffing said:


> Right now we are expecting the second wave of corona. The only possible thing is to continue following precautions.staying in your bubble,
> follow social distancing and never forget to wear masks.


Excellent post. Unfortuneately everything you said has been heard over and over again by our population so unfortuneately it looks like we are going to need these people to experience some personal losses before they respond appropriately. It seems to always be this way with our culture. The unfortuneate part of all this is that those deaths are not going to go alone. They will take a few others with them. People who are trying hard to act appropriately but just make a few innocent mistakes. That is also the way it always is as well.

Anyway, wear your mask, keep away from everyone, including your social bubble (there is no safe bubble but fewer and smaller is better then more and larger) and you should be fine...no matter how others behave.


----------



## sags

Prairie Guy said:


> It's not huge, it's barely even news. However, Cuomo seeding the care homes with Covid positive seniors and killing thousands is real news.
> 
> A man executing a 5-year old child in broad daylight is news but the news the left prefers elevates a violent sex offender to hero status.


Arrest them all and put them on trial. I don't play the "this person is just as bad" game.


----------



## james4beach

For context on just how serious COVID-19 is









COVID-19 is now the No. 3 cause of death in the U.S. But testing to find and isolate cases has dropped off


Just as more students head back to school, health experts are worried about a disturbing trend in much of the country: decreasing testing combined with high test positivity rates.




www.ctvnews.ca





"Covid is now the No. 3 cause of death in the US -- ahead of accidents, injuries, lung disease, diabetes, Alzheimer's, and many, many other causes," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Here are now the top causes of death:

1. heart disease
2. cancer
3. COVID-19


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Arrest them all and put them on trial. I don't play the "this person is just as bad" game.


I completely agree.

If there is evidence they committed a crime charge them and have a trial. Be careful, if you insist on holding people accountable someone is going to consider you alt-right.

Cuomo, putting seniors with COVID19 in care homes was incredibly reckless, morally criminal, but I'm not sure the act was legally criminal.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> If there is evidence they committed a crime charge them and have a trial. Be careful, if you insist on holding people accountable someone is going to consider you alt-right.


Wrong. The reason I think you are alt-right / far right is not because you said that criminals should be charged. I agree that people who commit violent attacks should be charged - always.

The reason I think you are far right is that you fit the pattern. For many years, you have made apologies for the right wing extremists (Patriot Prayer, Proud Boys, etc) even while they committed acts of violence. You always tried to deflect attention away from them, even while their activities keep increasing and becoming more violent and threatening to society.

You showed sympathy for right wing terrorists and extremists by always downplaying, or trying to deflect, whenever there was news of another one of their attacks.

You made misogynist statements. For example, you showed contempt for men you thought were feminine, showing a contempt for females and a belief in the superiority of masculinity.

You talked about your interest in weapons/guns. Combined with your appreciation for vigilante gangs, and sympathy for violent right wing attackers like Rittenhouse and the armed convoy which attacked Portland, you are nearly a perfect fit for the "far right" persona.

These are not normal positions to have. They are radical ideologies.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Wrong. The reason I think you are alt-right / far right is not because you said that criminals should be charged. I agree that people who commit violent attacks should be charged - always.


I put my reply on the Trump is back thread.


----------



## calm

Yes ..... we were all foolish enough ..... and I now understand how

How the Coronavirus Attacks the Brain
It’s not just the lungs — the pathogen may enter brain cells, causing symptoms like delirium and confusion, scientists reported.

It seems that between 37 and 42% of the country has been infected on the "Right" side of their brains.

....the coronavirus invades brain cells, hijacking them to make copies of itself. The virus also seems to suck up all of the oxygen nearby, starving neighboring cells to death.
By Apoorva Mandavilli
September 09, 2020








How the Coronavirus Attacks the Brain (Published 2020)


It’s not just the lungs — the pathogen may enter brain cells, causing symptoms like delirium and confusion, scientists reported.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## james4beach

How likely are you to be infected by the coronavirus on a flight?


Hard evidence on the risks of in-flight transmission of coronavirus is scarce, but what we know suggests that flying may be less risky than other activities such as eating out or going to the pub




www.newscientist.com





Interesting article on risk of catching COVID-19 on a flight.



> In the US, the risk of infection is about 1 in 4000 if a flight is full, estimates Arnold Barnett at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. If the middle seats are left empty, the risk falls to 1 in 8000.


Really wish they'd leave the middle seats empty. This is my Christmas wish this year. If Air Canada left the middle seats empty, I would buy a ticket _*tomorrow*_.

I want to fly to visit my parents (this month) but can't do it when the flights are too full. With COVID numbers rapidly rising, it's too dangerous.


----------



## Beaver101

calm said:


> Yes ..... we were all foolish enough ..... and I now understand how
> 
> How the Coronavirus Attacks the Brain
> It’s not just the lungs — the pathogen may enter brain cells, causing symptoms like delirium and confusion, scientists reported.
> 
> It seems that between 37 and 42% of the country has been infected on the "Right" side of their brains.
> 
> ....the coronavirus invades brain cells, hijacking them to make copies of itself. The virus also seems to suck up all of the oxygen nearby, starving neighboring cells to death.
> By Apoorva Mandavilli
> September 09, 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How the Coronavirus Attacks the Brain (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> It’s not just the lungs — the pathogen may enter brain cells, causing symptoms like delirium and confusion, scientists reported.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


 ... it's just a flu, says the anti-maskers, anti-vaxxers, pro-hoax on Covid19, etc.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> ... it's just a flu, says the anti-maskers, anti-vaxxers, pro-hoax on Covid19, etc.


One possibility that nobody is thinking about here is that we could end up with an entire generation of people (working class people in 30s and 40s) with severe chronic illness, potential organ damage and reduced lung capacity.

It only happens to some % of people who catch COVID, but if everyone is going to catch it (which seems to be the plan in the USA) then even a small percent can result in a large number of people.

That's the worst case scenario I can think of and I wouldn't rule it out. Everyone who is pushing for quickly getting "back to business" is assuming there will be NO long-lasting health effects or chronic disability.


----------



## calm

Social Distancing is totally unacceptable to the human race and people under 12 years old with depression and fear must be huge.

Students expecting to enter the work force prior to Covid-19, after completion of school must be totally devastated. Imagine the dreams that have been destroyed and they are bankrupted with student loans.

Most social programs were directed towards those who had a job and not those looking for a job.

I am seriously beginning to think that we will be wearing masks for a lifetime.


----------



## MrMatt

calm said:


> Social Distancing is totally unacceptable to the human race and people under 12 years old with depression and fear must be huge.
> 
> Students expecting to enter the work force prior to Covid-19, after completion of school must be totally devastated. Imagine the dreams that have been destroyed and they are bankrupted with student loans.
> 
> Most social programs were directed towards those who had a job and not those looking for a job.
> 
> I am seriously beginning to think that we will be wearing masks for a lifetime.


Canadian students shouldn't be massively in debt in Canada.

College/university programs are $4-6k/yr. In Ontario.
That's $10-20k for a 2 or 3 year program, less than the price of a new car.

What I did to graduate from University debt free, saved before school, worked summers, didn't buy a car until after I graduated.


----------



## james4beach

calm said:


> I am seriously beginning to think that we will be wearing masks for a lifetime.


Why would you think that? This is widely expected to subside by next summer. Even if there isn't a vaccine, treatments will be much better than they are today and the virus won't be much of a threat. We're only about 10 months away.


----------



## calm

Every time I saw Trump without a mask, I always asked myself what did Trump know that I did not know? In some of my comments here, I mentioned that I thought Trump was suicidal.

It seemed to me that it was the institution of the presidency which was protecting trump from the virus, not so much a deliberate choice by Trump.

The media and social networking informed us of the "Serious Truth" and still Trump pranced around with what seemed to be an I don't give a sh?t attitude.

Trump has infected his cult following with talk of a Rapture and his peace treaties with Israel reinforce the The End of Days belief system. It reminds me of that guy Jim Jones (Jonestown, Guyana 1978) and David Koresh (Waco 1983). Christian Zionists (John Hagee - CUFI) follow dispensationalist theology and when the faithful are to be lifted up to Heaven while the rest of humanity—including most of the Jews—will perish.

It was not only Trump who lied ..... It was the whole of government which allowed Trump to lie and downplay how serious this virus is.

I mentioned in earlier comments that I believed that governments were going to privatize data collection to ensure that it would not be subject to FOIA requests. All governments plan to hide the true numbers and true scope of this pandemic.

I have very little trust with any report from governments.

Governments are only stalling for time and prodding us on with "Plans".

They give us a "Plan" which will come to completion in 2 or 3 months and then we all sit back and wait.
We live our lives in 2 month segments.

I think we are being immersed into a lifetime of mask wearing a bit at a time and with "Plans" prodding us along.

While waiting for another bat to bite a dog in China.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Canadian students shouldn't be massively in debt in Canada.
> 
> College/university programs are $4-6k/yr. In Ontario.
> That's $10-20k for a 2 or 3 year program, less than the price of a new car.
> 
> What I did to graduate from University debt free, saved before school, worked summers, didn't buy a car until after I graduated.


Maybe 20 years ago?

I paid more than that, and I graduated over a decade ago. My alma mater does not have a single program with tuition costs that low.









First-year tuition and fees


Learn about Waterloo tuition fees for first-year Canadian and international undergraduate students.




uwaterloo.ca





For me, tuition and books at the time were around $8k-9k per year. Living expenses were another $8k-$9k. I could have eaten buttered noodles every day and made that a bit less. I did earn money during school and graduated with very manageable debt, but that is not going to be the case for everyone.


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## james4beach

calm said:


> Every time I saw Trump without a mask, I always asked myself what did Trump know that I did not know? In some of my comments here, I mentioned that I thought Trump was suicidal.


I also assumed he was suicidal. Because of all the crimes he's committed, I still think he might commit suicide if he loses the protection of government.

He's more like a cult leader than many people imagine.


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## sags

The cost of tuition and living expenses for a young woman to earn a Masters Degree in criminal psychology........$125,000.

She is now working for a big European bank earning $100,000 a year, (seems fitting somehow) but still that is a lot of debt to pay back with interest.

WSIB paid $28,000 for our son's training as a heavy equipment operator at a private trades college. It was a 9 month program.

The days of cheap education are long gone.


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## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Maybe 20 years ago?
> 
> I paid more than that, and I graduated over a decade ago. My alma mater does not have a single program with tuition costs that low.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> First-year tuition and fees
> 
> 
> Learn about Waterloo tuition fees for first-year Canadian and international undergraduate students.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> uwaterloo.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> For me, tuition and books at the time were around $8k-9k per year. Living expenses were another $8k-$9k. I could have eaten buttered noodles every day and made that a bit less. I did earn money during school and graduated with very manageable debt, but that is not going to be the case for everyone.


What school?
U of T is $6k & change/year for most Bachelor programs.


http://www.planningandbudget.utoronto.ca/Assets/Academic+Operations+Digital+Assets/Planning+$!26+Budget/lyanne/Tuition+Fees+2018-19/Tuition+Fee+Report+2020-21.pdf


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## MrMatt

MrMatt said:


> What school?
> U of T is $6k & change/year for most Bachelor programs.
> 
> 
> http://www.planningandbudget.utoronto.ca/Assets/Academic+Operations+Digital+Assets/Planning+$!26+Budget/lyanne/Tuition+Fees+2018-19/Tuition+Fee+Report+2020-21.pdf


I'd like to point out that your link wasn't to tuition.
It included a lot of unnecessary fees that Doug Ford tried to make optional.

I don't think students should be forced to fund Left wing advocacy groups such as WPIRG, or the food bank with mandatory fees.

If you want to fund a social justice group while at school, that's fine, but don't make it mandatory, then complain about the "high cost of education".


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## andrewf

I voted to eliminate funding for wpirg as a student, don't lecture me on it. I think you'll find that those incidentals are not a material contributor to the costs as stated.

Here is the fee breakdown:





Student Financial Services | Fee Schedule | Undergraduate Students | Fall 2017 | Finance


Fees listed below are for the Fall 2020 term only. Incidental fees are subject to change. Fall due date is August 25, 2020. All amounts are shown in Canadian dollars. University of Waterloo charges tuition one term at a time: Fall Term – September to December Winter Term – January to April...




uwaterloo.ca





Most programs, the base tuition is more per semester than the $6k you indicate per year.


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## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> What school?
> U of T is $6k & change/year for most Bachelor programs.
> 
> 
> http://www.planningandbudget.utoronto.ca/Assets/Academic+Operations+Digital+Assets/Planning+$!26+Budget/lyanne/Tuition+Fees+2018-19/Tuition+Fee+Report+2020-21.pdf


Maybe film studies? Engineering etc look to be $14k. From what I gathered in the 5 minutes of digging I'm willing to do at this point. UofT tuition seems to be a lot more convoluted.


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## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Maybe film studies? Engineering etc look to be $14k. From what I gathered in the 5 minutes of digging I'm willing to do at this point. UofT tuition seems to be a lot more convoluted.


Wow, just looked at the various Bachelor degrees.
Didn't think to see how bad "deregulation" got.

Really I should have just become a firefighter or plumber.


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## james4beach

I think I paid around 6K a year in Engineering, but that was a less expensive university about 20 years ago. So let's see, 6K if it were bumped up fairly to Toronto prices (higher cost center and better school) might have been 8K at the time. Now apply inflation with a slightly higher rate than CPI

8 * 1.03^20 = 14K

That's not too surprising. Seems about right for UofT engineering tuition at 3% inflation.


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## calm

Vaccine producer says it could take ‘four to five years’ for the world to receive a COVID-19 dose
----
The head executive of the world’s largest vaccine producer is cautioning that the world’s population may not be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus until at least the end of 2024, he said in an interview with the Financial Times.
----
He also said if we need double shots of the vaccine per person — similar to vaccinations for illnesses like measles — then the world may need 15 billion doses. Poonawalla’s company, which has partnered with five international pharmaceutical firms, has already committed to produce 1 billion doses; half of those doses are earmarked for India, according to the Financial Times.
------------
By Jaclyn Reiss
September 14, 2020








Vaccine producer says it could take ‘four to five years’ for the world to receive a COVID-19 dose - The Boston Globe


The chief executive of the world’s largest vaccine producer is cautioning that the world’s population may not be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus until at least the end of 2024, he said in an interview with the Financial Times.




www.bostonglobe.com


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## MrMatt

calm said:


> Vaccine producer says it could take ‘four to five years’ for the world to receive a COVID-19 dose
> ----
> The head executive of the world’s largest vaccine producer is cautioning that the world’s population may not be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus until at least the end of 2024, he said in an interview with the Financial Times.
> ----
> He also said if we need double shots of the vaccine per person — similar to vaccinations for illnesses like measles — then the world may need 15 billion doses. Poonawalla’s company, which has partnered with five international pharmaceutical firms, has already committed to produce 1 billion doses; half of those doses are earmarked for India, according to the Financial Times.
> ------------
> By Jaclyn Reiss
> September 14, 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vaccine producer says it could take ‘four to five years’ for the world to receive a COVID-19 dose - The Boston Globe
> 
> 
> The chief executive of the world’s largest vaccine producer is cautioning that the world’s population may not be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus until at least the end of 2024, he said in an interview with the Financial Times.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bostonglobe.com


What if we need a dose annually? or every 3-4 months.

This is going to be very expensive.


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## OptsyEagle

I really can't imagine Covid-19 being very dangerous to us after we have introduced the pathogen to the majority of our population. We may still get sick but I suspect an initial vaccine or infection should render it less harmful then the flu.


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## Longtimeago

OptsyEagle said:


> I really can't imagine Covid-19 being very dangerous to us after we have introduced the pathogen to the majority of our population. We may still get sick but I suspect an initial vaccine or infection should render it less harmful then the flu.


That's called guessing OptsyEagle. We can all guess anything.


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## OptsyEagle

Longtimeago said:


> That's called guessing OptsyEagle. We can all guess anything.


so was the pessimistic point, made just before mine, that I was responding to. I don't recall showing a link of proof so I doubt anyone misunderstood my lack of 100% proof, but thanks for ensuring clarity.

That said, most other viruses become less dangerous as our bodies acquire recognition of the virus. That creates a quicker immune response. A quicker immune response reduces the viruses ability to hurt us. If most other viruses work this way, I see no reason yet, why the covid-19 virus will not act in a similar manner. That is my guess. Certainly a better guess then the one made before mine, but only time will tell.


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## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> I really can't imagine Covid-19 being very dangerous to us after we have introduced the pathogen to the majority of our population. We may still get sick but I suspect an initial vaccine or infection should render it less harmful then the flu.


I really can't imagine AIDS, malaria, ebola, MERS, menengitis, hepatitus being very dangerous to us... wait they are.


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## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> I really can't imagine AIDS, malaria, ebola, MERS, menengitis, hepatitus being very dangerous to us... wait they are.


The common cold use to kill humans many millenniums ago, it does not today. The flu was much deadlier as well. I could make a list a lot longer then yours, but since those viruses have become so benign it is hard to remember them all. Most have gone off our history books. Only the few scary ones are still with us.

Look. Neither of us know the future precisely. You made a valid guess, and so did I. Maybe we should leave it to the future to determine which guess is more correct. I just doubt we will need a vaccine every 3 or 4 months. That sounded a little pessimistic to me.


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## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> The common cold use to kill humans many millenniums ago, it does not today. The flu was much deadlier as well. I could make a list a lot longer then yours, but since those viruses have become so benign it is hard to remember them all. Most have gone off our history books. Only the few scary ones are still with us.
> 
> Look. Neither of us know the future precisely. You made a valid guess, and so did I. Maybe we should leave it to the future to determine which guess is more correct. I just doubt we will need a vaccine every 3 or 4 months. That sounded a little pessimistic to me.


Sure it may sound pessimistic, or conservative.
But it's also based on the data.
1. We know that COVID19 antibodies fade in a few months.
2. We have not been able to create a human vaccine for any other Coronaviruses.

It seems unlikely that a vaccine will last long if the antibodies fade quickly.
It would be a surprising coincidence that despite decades of effort, the first effective Coronavirus vaccine just happens to be the one for COVID19.

As far as "the flu", yes the more lethal strains tend to die out. Because they kill their hosts. 
The most successful viruses are high spread, low symptom.


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## sags

Now that they have opened up schools, it means less social contact for the kids with anyone beyond their parents and siblings outside of school.

No more grandparent visits or stay overs. No more extended families hunkering down and able to stay in a small, safe social circle.

The circles now become so exponentially large that they are rendered a useless concept.

One virus expert said there is the child's classmates, teachers, janitors, principles.......and everyone they are in contact with, and everyone they are in contact with, and everyone.......on and on. This is how outbreaks get out of control in a few days.

The endless trail of contact tracing will mean it simply doesn't get done to completion. They will be chasing their tails.

It reminds me of an old axiom.........be careful what you wish for because you just might get it.


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## sags

I went for a pickup at a burger joint yesterday. I was surprised they allowed people to dine-in within a small area. We are losing focus and will pay for it.


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## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Sure it may sound pessimistic, or conservative.
> But it's also based on the data.
> 1. We know that COVID19 antibodies fade in a few months.
> 2. *We have not been able to create a human vaccine for any other Coronaviruses ...
> would be a surprising coincidence that despite decades of effort, the first effective Coronavirus vaccine just happens to be the one for COVID19 ... *


The bolded part is in the eye of the beholder ... there are multiple coronavirus vaccine candidates created in the past that have successfully passed the bulk of the testing. They've just never completed the final phase to be an approved vaccine, mostly from a lack of ROI for the investors/companies.

This pessimistic POV makes it sound like there's never been progress, which is not the case. I'm surprised you figure it's unlikely that COVID19 would be the first when it clearly has the investment backing as well as wide spread application that was missing from the previous vaccines (i.e. the progress has pretty much been matched despite a much shorter time frame).


Cheers

*PS*
From what I recall of a recent article, something like three of the covid vaccines have been approved for limited or emergency use ... which is beyond the point that previous vaccines ran into trouble getting funding for.


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## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Sure it may sound pessimistic, or conservative.
> But it's also based on the data.
> 1. We know that COVID19 antibodies fade in a few months.
> 2. We have not been able to create a human vaccine for any other Coronaviruses.
> 
> It seems unlikely that a vaccine will last long if the antibodies fade quickly.
> It would be a surprising coincidence that despite decades of effort, the first effective Coronavirus vaccine just happens to be the one for COVID19.
> 
> As far as "the flu", yes the more lethal strains tend to die out. Because they kill their hosts.
> The most successful viruses are high spread, low symptom.


All correct, however there is a lot more to our immune response then anti-bodies. Effective anti-bodies would be the holy grail but t-cell response and other first level immune responses, which have been proven to exist for the corona virus, are very effective in keeping viruses from being dangerous. Again, it is not the infections that are the problem. It is the severe illness and death that is the problem. Let us not lose site of what the problem actually is.

I am pretty sure after we get fairly exposed to this thing it will lose its teeth quite considerably.

In any case, I think we have both stated our opinions, both of which are just educated guesses, so I think the readers of this thread have enough information to form their own opinions.


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## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> The bolded part is in the eye of the beholder ... there are multiple coronavirus vaccine candidates created in the past that have successfully passed the bulk of the testing. They've just never completed the final phase to be an approved vaccine, mostly from a lack of ROI for the investors/companies.
> 
> This pessimistic POV makes it sound like there's never been progress, which is not the case. I'm surprised you figure it's unlikely that COVID19 would be the first when it clearly has the investment backing as well as wide spread application that was missing from the previous vaccines (i.e. the progress has pretty much been matched despite a much shorter time frame).
> 
> Cheers


I pretty much agree.
Yes, COVID has the funding to push over the finish line, but so did SARS. They still gave up before they finished it.
It is likely that if it is possible, COVID19 might be the first.

I am more conservative in my view.
I don't want to construct my baseline projections for the future on scientific breakthroughs that may or may not happen.

We have a lot of people saying "once we get a vaccine in a few months, it will all be back to normal".
I think such an attitude is wrong, and detrimental.
We're going to be under these conditions for a lot longer than optimists think.
As others have pointed out, it will be a herculean task just to get a dose to every person.


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## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> I am more conservative in my view.
> I don't want to construct my baseline projections for the future on scientific breakthroughs that may or may not happen.
> 
> We have a lot of people saying "once we get a vaccine in a few months, it will all be back to normal".
> I think such an attitude is wrong, and detrimental.
> We're going to be under these conditions for a lot longer than optimists think.


I agree with you MrMatt.

The way I'm viewing this is that we're in something like a war right now (and requires a similar mindset). This is a marathon. It won't be solved in a couple months, but it should get better with time. With every passing month, our healthcare capabilities improve due to better treatments and procedures.

It's wrong to pin false hopes on vaccines that don't exist yet. We should focus on doing healthy behaviours, minimizing risk as much as we can. We're doing OK with those things but it takes ongoing energy and commitment. It can be done, but it's hard, and it requires us to make sacrifices.

One thing I love about Bonnie Henry's approach is she's a health authority, but also gives great "pep talks". It's really worth listening to her talks. She helps relax and calm people, but she also is honest about what's going. She doesn't give false hopes or set unrealistic expectations.

Most recently she said something along the lines of: the numbers are getting worse, the summer fun is over so it's time for everyone to REDUCE their contacts. We relaxed things in the summer so that people could take a breather, but now you have to be a lot more careful.

This is the kind of leadership and guidance the country needs. Realistic assessments of the situation, ongoing calm, ongoing encouragement, and pep talks that remind us that this will eventually end.

My own guess is that we're roughly 10 to 12 months away from this thing no longer being an issue simply due to healthcare and contact tracing improving (not assuming a vaccine). That's not a very long time! 10 months goes by in the blink of an eye. It's not a big deal. Yes, we all have to make sacrifices in the meantime.


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## OptsyEagle

The glass is either half empty or half full. Each must choose. In my view there will be plenty of time for me to change my opinion, if required. Done it before. It is far from detrimental and with that said, optimism makes today a heck of lot more enjoyable.


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## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> The glass is either half empty or half full. Each must choose. In my view there will be plenty of time for me to change my opinion, if required. Done it before. It is far from detrimental and with that said, optimism makes today a heck of lot more enjoyable.


Betting "everything's going to be all right", is a recipe for disaster.

I prefer realistic, with a positive attitude.
Realistically we don't have a vaccine, and many candidates will fail, and even if we do, it will be a while before it's out enough to return to "normal". << That's likely what's going to happen, and that's just fine.


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## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Betting "everything's going to be all right", is a recipe for disaster.
> 
> I prefer realistic, with a positive attitude.
> Realistically we don't have a vaccine, and many candidates will fail, and even if we do, it will be a while before it's out enough to return to "normal". << That's likely what's going to happen, and that's just fine.


But your outcome is no more or less realistic then mine. And what disaster. A disaster can only come from making a big bet. How much of a problem is it to say "everything will be OK" and then change your mind tomorrow. That is just life. Anyone that is older then 10 is use to that.

That said, if I have to guess while investing nothing in the guess, I will guess optimistically. Not just because it makes me feel better, and it does, but because of the observation that humanity has overcome this type of thing over and over again. This virus is not going to change our lives for that long. We will be OK, no matter which one of us is closer to being right.


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## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> But your outcome is no more or less realistic then mine. And what disaster. A disaster can only come from making a big bet. How much of a problem is it to say "everything will be OK" and then change your mind tomorrow. That is just life. Anyone that is older then 10 is use to that.
> 
> That said, if I have to guess while investing nothing in the guess, I will guess optimistically. Not just because it makes me feel better, and it does, but because of the observation that humanity has overcome this type of thing over and over again. This virus is not going to change our lives for that long. We will be OK, no matter which one of us is closer to being right.


Humanity will do fine, but I, the individual also want to do fine.

I understand optimists, but I personally feel like it's a naive/ignorant view/interpretation of a positive attitude. Conveniently I found a Simon Sinek post to the contrary, so I'm going to see a bit more of what he has to say.
I find Simon is able to articulate concepts in a manner I can understand.


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## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Humanity will do fine, but I, the individual also want to do fine.
> 
> I understand optimists, but I personally feel like it's a naive/ignorant view/interpretation of a positive attitude.


Naive/ignorant?

What do you call pessimists?

I think what you are really saying is you seem to believe the pessimistic outcome will come about and anyone that does not see it the same way as you do must be naive/ignorant.

Matt. Please. Let's end this. I would have let that last one go until you called me naive and ignorant. Don't do that again. You have an opinion. I have an opinion. I doubt any of them are naive or ignorant. They are just opinions.


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## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Naive/ignorant?
> 
> What do you call pessimists?
> 
> I think what you are really saying is you seem to believe the pessimistic outcome will come about and anyone that does not see it the same way as you do must be naive/ignorant.
> 
> Matt. Please. Let's end this. I would have let that last one go until you called me naive and ignorant. Don't do that again. You have an opinion. I have an opinion. I doubt any of them are naive or ignorant. They are just opinions.


Pessimists is a negative and depressing outlook.

Nope, I don't believe the pessimistic outcome will come about, I'm simply not betting on the optimistic outcome. I've actually been quite consistent on this. I didn't say those who disagree with me are are naive or ignorant. I actually believe that it is possible to intelligently come to alternative conclusions or opinions.

I never called you naive or ignorant. You seem to be taking offense to something that I didn't say.
It is my view that optimism is a flawed philosophy that is not beneficial.


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## james4beach

I don't see why being patient and expecting another year of elevated virus danger is so bad. Everything *will* be OK, but it will take time.

There's no question this is going to subside and become a non-issue eventually. Does it take 6 months or 12 months? Seems like splitting hairs to me, in the big scheme of things. Either way, we have to be patient and remain cautious for a while.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I don't see why being patient and expecting another year of elevated virus danger is so bad. Everything *will* be OK, but it will take time.
> 
> There's no question this is going to subside and become a non-issue eventually. Does it take 6 months or 12 months? Seems like splitting hairs to me, in the big scheme of things. Either way, we have to be patient and remain cautious for a while.


That is a likely outcome, but the governments have to acknowledge he incredible damage their COVID policies are having.
Cancellations and reduced medical care, resuling in harm and even death. Massive increases in substance abuse, domestic violence, child abuse, and personal/business financial problems are simply being ignored in favour of "but COVID".

All the kids I know are thrilled to be going back to school. They've been under house arrest for months.


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## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> I pretty much agree.
> Yes, COVID has the funding to push over the finish line, but so did SARS. They still gave up before they finished it ...


This looks like a misrepresentation as I don't believe the funding was there for SARS for long enough. If you have references for a long period of funding, I'd be interested.

The references I recall had SARS cases reported up to the declaration that it was contained, in the short time span of nine months. After that, there were four natural cases and three lab accidents. Even if one expands to include the four later cases - it's still the relatively short time frame of fifteen months. Keep in mind that one of the clinical studies for a vaccine was starting in 2007 (three years after the last case and more than four years after more than a single case in a day).

It seems that big pharma as well as their investors left the SARS vaccine race early on, leaving the academics working on ninety percent of the candidates. As of Jan 2020, there's reported to be thirty three candidates with only four clinical trials (two in phase one and two in phase three).


Seems like the same pattern of funding being withdrawn before the finish line, with likely both private and gov't sources deciding there's more pressing issues.

*Edit:*
Which IMO is quite a bit different than giving up. Or one assuming the "giving up" was driven by hitting a series of failures.




MrMatt said:


> ... It is likely that if it is possible, COVID19 might be the first.


Then why the comment about the "coincidence" as well as making it seem like an unsolvable problem that only a hail mary will having results?




MrMatt said:


> ... I am more conservative in my view.
> I don't want to construct my baseline projections for the future on scientific breakthroughs that may or may not happen.
> 
> We have a lot of people saying "once we get a vaccine in a few months, it will all be back to normal" ...


Why open the door to red herrings and side bar issues by ignoring or misrepresenting the past?
Surely discussing the danger and following up better plans is more pressing?

Or to put it another way, if being a Pollyanna is bad - what's so good about seeing only hopelessnes when it's more likely to be somewhere towards the middle?


Cheers


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## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> ... I agree with you MrMatt.
> 
> The way I'm viewing this is that we're in something like a war right now (and requires a similar mindset). This is a marathon. It won't be solved in a couple months, but it should get better with time ...


Sure ... I just don't see why past history has to be minimized/ignored/misrepresented in order to discuss this point.




james4beach said:


> ... My own guess is that we're roughly 10 to 12 months away from this thing no longer being an issue simply due to healthcare and contact tracing improving (not assuming a vaccine) ...


Maybe ... maybe not. It might go away like SARS, a vaccine might finally make it to the finish line or some effective treatment might be developed.

Cheers


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## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Seems like the same pattern of funding being withdrawn before the finish line, with likely both private and gov't sources deciding there's more pressing issues.
> 
> *Edit:*
> Which IMO is quite a bit different than giving up. Or one assuming the "giving up" was driven by hitting a series of failures.


Research was stopped before they got a vaccine for SARS.
There have been labs working on Coronavirus vaccines for years before SARS, and years after SARS. 
If the SARS research was really close to effective, I would assume that they would take that data, and we'd have made more progress towards a Coronavirus vaccine.




> Then why the comment about the "coincidence" as well as making it seem like an unsolvable problem that only a hail mary will having results?


I never said that, I just said that they've never done that.
Doing something we haven't done before is hard and not guaranteed to succeed.
Some things happen, some things won't, and some things simply haven't happened yet.
I think COVID19 vaccine is in category 2 or 3.



> Or to put it another way, if being a Pollyanna is bad - what's so good about seeing only hopelessnes when it's more likely to be somewhere towards the middle?


You'd have to ask someone who only sees hopelessness.

I see a bright future, once we figure out how to deal with the current situation.
I don't think having an unrealitic view (positive or negative) will help us deal with the current situation.


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## andrewf

There are rumblings that Ontario will move Toronto, Ottawa and Peel (3 most populous) regions back to Phase 2 lockdown to address the spikes in those areas.


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## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> There are rumblings that Ontario will move Toronto, Ottawa and Peel (3 most populous) regions back to Phase 2 lockdown to address the spikes in those areas.


Makes sense, they're not ready to handle outbreaks.
For example, they declared an outbreak at Western (in London), and the next day the testing center at the school hit capacity (220 tests) before noon.
It was a very poor response.
Just for reference, UWO has some 40k students, and 5k+ staff/faculty. Only allocating 220 tests for an outbreak is a big mistake.
Facts & Figures 2019-2020 - Western University


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## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> All the kids I know are thrilled to be going back to school. They've been under house arrest for months.


They weren't under house arrest. All summer, I've been seeing the beaches and parks packed with children and teenagers. They're everywhere!

What do you mean that kids were under house arrest? I don't understand this drama about being "locked in". Nobody was ever locked indoors. Even when I was in Winnipeg at -25 weather, I was still going outside for walks. I went to the park. I was frequently messaging people with CMF and we were exchanging notes about our walks out in the beautiful winter weather.

When it warmed up in April and we started getting mild temperatures, I saw lots of kids and teens outside hanging out together and having fun.

Nobody ever said everyone has to stay home and indoors (unless they are infected). Do you mean that parents of kids were telling the kids to stay indoors?


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> They weren't under house arrest. All summer, I've been seeing the beaches and parks packed with children and teenagers. They're everywhere!
> 
> What do you mean that kids were under house arrest? I don't understand this drama about being "locked in". Nobody was ever locked indoors. Even when I was in Winnipeg at -25 weather, I was still going outside for walks. I went to the park. I was frequently messaging people with CMF and we were exchanging notes about our walks out in the beautiful winter weather.
> 
> When it warmed up in April and we started getting mild temperatures, I saw lots of kids and teens outside hanging out together and having fun.
> 
> Nobody ever said everyone has to stay home and indoors (unless they are infected). Do you mean that parents of kids were telling the kids to stay indoors?


Well, not literally "house arrest", but in Ontario, until june the parks were closed, and people were being ticketted for roller blading through parks with their families.
So while they didn't say "stay indoors", they did try to prohibit/discourage people from leaving their property.

Until August most organized sports etc were banned.
This has been really tough on kids.


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## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Research was stopped before they got a vaccine for SARS.
> There have been labs working on Coronavirus vaccines for years before SARS, and years after SARS ...


Of course it was stopped - where one needs about two million to proceed and one can't get the funding - it's going to stop short of an approved vaccine. 

The point is that for this particular SARS vaccine candidate, the stop happened in 2016 where the stop was not a failure but a funding issue. 




MrMatt said:


> ... If the SARS research was really close to effective, I would assume that they would take that data, and we'd have made more progress towards a Coronavirus vaccine.


I guess you missed the articles earlier in the year where vaccine pessimists were optimistic due to the similarity of SARS and COVID-19 making the previous work more applicable? Or maybe the article that the Texas SARS vaccine candidate was being pulled out of storage to test against COVID-19?




MrMatt said:


> ... I never said that, I just said that they've never done that. Doing something we haven't done before is hard and not guaranteed to succeed ...


I guess that's where we differ. 

You seem to be hung up on not having an approved vaccine from other coronavirus situations and dismiss or see previous candidates as being failures that don't provide any information applicable to the current one.

I agree there's no guarantee but see the previous experience and actions as reducing how hard it is. I can recall one of the people interviewed about one of the vaccine candidates crediting the ability to move so quickly now as being built on what has been learned on work done on Ebola and SARS vaccine candidates.




MrMatt said:


> ... You'd have to ask someone who only sees hopelessness.
> 
> I see a bright future, once we figure out how to deal with the current situation.


Well from the way I read your take on the lack of an approved vaccine and the challenges faced - you are hiding your view of a bright future well.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Well, not literally "house arrest", but in Ontario, until june the parks were closed, and people were being ticketted for roller blading through parks with their families.
> So while they didn't say "stay indoors", they did try to prohibit/discourage people from leaving their property ...


??? .... it didn't discourage anyone in my neighbourhood from leaving their property, adults or kids. Lots of them on bikes or walking back in May. There was also the outdoor scavenger hunt that was being run for kids.




MrMatt said:


> ... Until August most organized sports etc were banned. This has been really tough on kids.


Sure but it's still not house arrest. 

That would be more like one person allowed out for four hours a week with the military and police checking the papers of those moving about.

Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Well from the way I read your take on the lack of an approved vaccine and the challenges faced - you are hiding your view of a bright future well.


I see a bright future, it's just not based on a wish for a scientific development that may or may not happen.

It seems that's where we differ, I'm basing my positive outlook for the future on the current resources and knowledge of TODAY, those hoping for vaccines etc are hoping for things that may or may not happen.

It seems odd that the people who think a scientific development/breakthrough will save us from COVID19 are unwilling to entertain the thought that a scientific development/breakthrough will save us from Climate change.

Myself I think we can and will be able to beat COVID19 and Climate change even without scientific breakthroughs. I find it comforting and even pleasing that with the knowledge and technology we have today, we can beat these challenges.


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> ??? .... it didn't discourage anyone in my neighbourhood from leaving their property, adults or kids. Lots of them on bikes or walking back in May. There was also the outdoor scavenger hunt that was being run for kids.
> 
> That would be more like one person allowed out for four hours a week with the military and police checking the papers of those moving about.
> 
> Cheers


1. I know it did discourage some people from leaving their property, not everyone can afford fines running to several hundred dollars, and it was a risk they weren't willing to take. 

2. The police were stopping and questioning people who were out.

3. Even without the actual enforcement, the Health unit orders are legal restrictions. Not everyone felt as free to violate these orders as those who were flauting them.


----------



## sags

Strange watching the Israeli delegation in the White House all wearing masks while the Trump administration walked around without them.

The delegation expressed concerns about it, but were ignored because the Trumpsters didn't want to offend their boss.

Israel is implementing another COVID lock down, which means they can't be further than 1500 meters from their homes.

The countries and US States that mocked early shutdowns are now paying the price of a continuing first wave of COVID.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Well, not literally "house arrest", but in Ontario, until june the parks were closed, and people were being ticketted for roller blading through parks with their families.
> So while they didn't say "stay indoors", they did try to prohibit/discourage people from leaving their property.
> 
> Until August most organized sports etc were banned.
> This has been really tough on kids.


What’s been tough is having their parents home. Lol. I don’t know Any kids who found this tough. Unfortunately, there were still sleepovers, camping, cottages, play dates, pool parties. Probably explains some of the increased numbers. The fines I heard about were very early on, but once we entered stage 2, it was as if there was no pandemic.


----------



## sags

It didn't take long for schools to start shutting down due to increasing infections. A second round of lock downs is inevitable.


----------



## OptsyEagle

The problem with schools, at least in Ontario, is it seems to me that the teachers and unions probably want there to be problems. They obviously want to change the Ford government since he faught them so well during the strike. Most problems in schools are going to appear to be the fault of the government, hence the teachers have very little incentive to make things work. 

It's not like we are cutting their pay if the schools get shut down and they all have to go back home.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Not wanting to make it sound like MrMatt's vaccine pessimism may have some credibility to it for two reasons. One, he was mostly guessing and two, it's MrMatt. lol.

Anyway, did anyone notice he head of the CDC, Robert Redfield's comment that he thought masks were more protective then a vaccine. That comment was only made a few days ago. I mean I like masks but certainly a vaccine that creates immunity for the masses could not possibly be put behind the safety of a mask. 

Sooooooo, it makes me wonder if he might know a little more about the effectiveness of all these vaccines in the works, that we are hoping to see by the end of this year. For example, if perhaps only 50% to 60% of the participants are actually getting an immune response to these vaccines, the FDA will still approve them. The companies will still make them and sell them, but let's face it, how safe are you going to feel. You will still need a mask, unless there is a secondary test to see if you did get a response, which I doubt. Plus, with that kind of effectiveness I doubt you would see as many people standing in line to get it, ruling out any form of herd immunity.

Anyway, I know nothing more then what I wrote above, but I did not feel warm and fuzzy about that comment. What do you guys think. I probably know what MrMatt thinks but I will take his opinion, as well. lol


----------



## sags

The only immunity I see is to starve the virus for new victims. We need a complete and total shutdown to get the cases to 0 for 30 days.

Seal the borders to ANY travel until the global virus threat is gone.

The other choice is to continue to bounce along with a semi-closed economy, supporting those out of work, and with a continuing viral threat.

Israel is starting it's second national lock down.









Israel is going into a second nationwide lockdown over Covid-19


Israel has approved a second general lockdown as coronavirus cases surge across the country. The lockdown, which is expected to start Friday afternoon, will see the country return to many of the same severe restrictions of the first lockdown back in April.




www.cnn.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The only immunity I see is to starve the virus for new victims. We need a complete and total shutdown to get the cases to 0 for 30 days.
> 
> Seal the borders to ANY travel until the global virus threat is gone.
> 
> The other choice is to continue to bounce along with a semi-closed economy, supporting those out of work, and a continuing viral threat.
> 
> Israel is starting it's second national lock down.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Israel is going into a second nationwide lockdown over Covid-19
> 
> 
> Israel has approved a second general lockdown as coronavirus cases surge across the country. The lockdown, which is expected to start Friday afternoon, will see the country return to many of the same severe restrictions of the first lockdown back in April.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


We should have done this back in January, or at least by March, when the Federal government knew about this.
The fact that Trudeau STILL hasn't closed the border to non-essential travel, and mandated quarantines is negligent.


As far as the masks vs vaccines, I think it's all silly.
even a 70% vaccine isn't enough, COVID19 is too communicable, and the asymptomatic spread is a HUGE problem.
Ontario is a great example, we have decent testing, decent data, and we can't trace a large portion of the cases.

I think we should be working like crazy to figure out a vaccine, or effective treatment. I think onshoring of critical resources is good.
While it would be wonderful to get a vaccine (even at 50%), or a treatment better than "lets pump them full of O2 and hope for the best". I don't think we should base our actions on those breakthroughs.

Also we have to stop minimizing the impact of the lockdowns, people are being hurt and dying due to the restrictions. let alone the other negative reprecussions.

Finally I think it's an impossible situation, there is no good answer, and I'm overall pleased with the general Canadian Governments at all levels, sure it could be better, but almost every other country is doing worse.


----------



## OptsyEagle

70% effective with a 100% take up of the vaccine by the worlds population would wipe this virus from the face of this earth. That is just a law of math and how herd immunity works. The problem is if it is less effective then 70%, it will most likely be accepted by less of the population. That double wammy kind of takes the punch out of it.

In that world we will of course need a good stock pile of masks.

What is more interesting is that it does not seem like the stock market heard that comment or they are interpreting it a lot differently. I would love to hear another way of interpreting it, which is why I made the post, but it was kind of a telling statement, at this stage of vaccine development, if you ask me.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> The only immunity I see is to starve the virus for new victims. We need a complete and total shutdown to get the cases to 0 for 30 days.
> 
> Seal the borders to ANY travel until the global virus threat is gone.
> 
> The other choice is to continue to bounce along with a semi-closed economy, supporting those out of work, and with a continuing viral threat.
> 
> Israel is starting it's second national lock down.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Israel is going into a second nationwide lockdown over Covid-19
> 
> 
> Israel has approved a second general lockdown as coronavirus cases surge across the country. The lockdown, which is expected to start Friday afternoon, will see the country return to many of the same severe restrictions of the first lockdown back in April.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


The chances of zero cases for 30 days is never gonna happen without a strong vaccine. There’s no level Of acceptable shutdown that would lead to zero cases In 30 days.


----------



## like_to_retire

Money172375 said:


> The chances of zero cases for 30 days is never gonna happen without a strong vaccine. There’s no level Of acceptable shutdown that would lead to zero cases In 30 days.


Agreed. I think the level of compliance among the population has been established, and it isn't full compliance by any means, and it ain't ever gonna be. 

So the only way forward is a vaccine.

ltr


----------



## calm

A good explanation of "Herd Immunity"

Math On Trump Covid Strategy Has Millions Dying Before It Works

Rachel Maddow does the math on the herd immunity Covid-19 strategy that Donald Trump has chosen, with the backing of Fox News doctor Scott Atlas, as the way the U.S. will deal with the coronavirus and finds that even with rosy circumstances and granting some leaps Trump makes without the support of science, millions of people would die in the U.S. for it to work. 
MSNBC
Host Rachel Maddow
September 16, 2020

(YouTube Video)


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> 70% effective with a 100% take up of the vaccine by the worlds population would wipe this virus from the face of this earth. That is just a law of math and how herd immunity works. The problem is if it is less effective then 70%, it will most likely be accepted by less of the population. That double wammy kind of takes the punch out of it.
> 
> In that world we will of course need a good stock pile of masks.
> 
> What is more interesting is that it does not seem like the stock market heard that comment or they are interpreting it a lot differently. I would love to hear another way of interpreting it, which is why I made the post, but it was kind of a telling statement, at this stage of vaccine development, if you ask me.


The trouble is if it has significant adverse side effects. Do you force people to take a 40-50% effective vaccine with some nasty side effects?


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> The trouble is if it has significant adverse side effects. Do you force people to take a 40-50% effective vaccine with some nasty side effects?


Absolutely. Kind of hard to force people to vaccinate, anyway. 100% take up is also a logistical impossibility. It has never happened before, even with the most deadly viruses. So, unless you get the vaccine effectiveness TIMES the take up rate above around 60%, this virus will be with us a long time. Optimally you want that well above 70% to eradicate this pestilence. 

As you say, if there are side effects, and so far there seem to be some moderate ones like fatigue, etc., the take up rate will drop dramatically.

Anyway, it is possible the CDC director was just trying to get people to embrace the face mask but it still seemed to be a curious way to do it, at this time, for a guy who probably knows the basic results of the most prominent vaccines in development right now. I am starting to get a feeling that this first round of vaccines are going to be a bit of a dud. We are probably looking at 2022 for that white knight, if his white horse ever does show up on the horizon.


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> Agreed. I think the level of compliance among the population has been established, and it isn't full compliance by any means, and it ain't ever gonna be.
> 
> So the only way forward is a vaccine.
> 
> ltr


Yeah, because Trump says so?

Experts have been saying that a vaccine isn't a silver bullet that will save it, the US just had hearings on this, and they even suggested masks may be the more effective tool.
But hey, keep waiting for that vaccine T&T keep promising.

It's time for people to start living in the real world.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I am pretty sure we are all living in the same world. Hoping for a vaccine but wearing a mask while we wait is kind of living in the real world.

I don't think that if a vaccine does not come by Christmas that you are going to see a lot of mass suicides. The real issue that I think is out there is the current level of the stock market. It is probably a little over priced for a kick @ss vaccine by Christmas. If the vaccines that come about first still require us to be vigilant in what we do, I think the stock market is significantly overvalued.

Even a few percentage points of reduced GDP can create a loss of millions of jobs. If people are still wary about travelling, going out, spending money, etc., that has to be quite the snag on GDP. As those people without jobs start to realize their true financial condition, that should be an additional GDP pull back.

Yet. The S&P 500 is within a few points of an all time record high because a few stocks, maybe 10 benefit from Covid-19. Let's not forget about the other 490 that certainly do not.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Absolutely. Kind of hard to force people to vaccinate, anyway. 100% take up is also a logistical impossibility. It has never happened before, even with the most deadly viruses. So, unless you get the vaccine effectiveness TIMES the take up rate above around 60%, this virus will be with us a long time. Optimally you want that well above 70% to eradicate this pestilence.


I would argue that uptake rate of vaccines against polio and measles worked pretty well, UNTIL recently with anti-vaxx movement. It can be done given enough time and coordination. I remember that during school, the nurse would provide an opportunity to catch up on vaccination if you were behind. Unfortunately the whole situation has been politicized, so in addition to anti-vaxx movement, you have people who believe it is fake and won't vaccinate... and then they die. Killed by a virus he thought had been overhyped

I mean that is a morbid way to achieve herd immunity... have those without immunity die so they can't spread it, but it's normally not an acceptable choice.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Whenever I explain the benefits of social distancing and the use of masks, towards the eradication of the virus it is a simple explanation. If we don't give the virus a new host (new infection) to continue its life, via social distancing, masks and few other techniques, we will then be left with only currently infected people. In those cases, either the person kills the virus OR the virus kills the person. In either case, the virus dies and we win and it would all be over in about 4 to 6 weeks.

Anyway, always a little morbid for the poor individuals that give up their lives to take out a few of our viral enemies but that is the simple science behind this issue. The best thing about the virus is that we know exactly what keeps it alive and we know exactly what we need to do to kill it. We just don't do that. That is mostly because we allow our emotions to overwhelm our brains. If we were on the planet Vulcan right now, this virus would not be with us anymore. But we are on the planet Earth. C'est la vie.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Whenever I explain the benefits of social distancing and the use of masks, towards the eradication of the virus it is a simple explanation. If we don't give the virus a new host (new infection) to continue its life, via social distancing, masks and few other techniques, we will then be left with only currently infected people. In those cases, either the person kills the virus OR the virus kills the person. In either case, the virus dies and we win and it would all be over in about 4 to 6 weeks.


If only it was that simple. 

There is also the question of how long the virus can survive when frozen which might be much longer than 6 weeks.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> I see a bright future, it's just not based on a wish for a scientific development that may or may not happen ...


In the meantime, your writing seems to be selective in what it acknowledges.




MrMatt said:


> ... It seems that's where we differ, I'm basing my positive outlook for the future on the current resources and knowledge of TODAY, those hoping for vaccines etc are hoping for things that may or may not happen.


Did I say my positive outlook was solely based on a vaccine?
I'm pretty sure I've said a vaccine may or may not happen but compared to past situations, there's more promise.




MrMatt said:


> ... It seems odd that the people who think a scientific development/breakthrough will save us from COVID19 are unwilling to entertain the thought that a scientific development/breakthrough will save us from Climate change.


Not sure why the sidebar comment but moving on.




MrMatt said:


> ... Myself I think we can and will be able to beat COVID19 and Climate change even without scientific breakthroughs. I find it comforting and even pleasing that with the knowledge and technology we have today, we can beat these challenges.


Maybe ... but then again, there's fatigue from using those current methods that during the Spanish Flu pandemic resulted in far more fatalities than the first two waves. Some things like having internet access, streaming services etc. should help but time will tell.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> 1. I know it did discourage some people from leaving their property, not everyone can afford fines running to several hundred dollars, and it was a risk they weren't willing to take ...


Are you talking about the US here?
For Canada, I'm aware of people who were fined for going into parks but don't recall any for leaving ones house or walking/biking/skateboarding the streets etc.




MrMatt said:


> .... 2. The police were stopping and questioning people who were out.


What part of Canada did this happen in?

I haven't seen it in my area, no one I know has reported it and there's been nothing in the news about it. The reports locally have been where someone reported an issue, sometimes misunderstanding like the restaurant that was open for takeout only and sometimes for violations like not quarantining after returning from the US. 

While the parks were closed, those were patrolled more often where what you are talking about probably happened but nothing like as widespread as you seem to be describing.




MrMatt said:


> 3. Even without the actual enforcement, the Health unit orders are legal restrictions. Not everyone felt as free to violate these orders as those who were flauting them.


Can you point me to a Health Unit order that said one can't leave home, with a few exception like someone returning from outside Canada or crossing provincial lines?

In my area, the Health Unit was telling people to get out, get exercise - just to do it with distancing and/or masks as needed.


Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Are you talking about the US here?
> For Canada, I'm aware of people who were fined for going into parks but don't recall any for leaving ones house or walking/biking/skateboarding the streets etc.
> 
> 
> 
> What part of Canada did this happen in?
> 
> I haven't seen it in my area, no one I know has reported it and there's been nothing in the news about it. The reports locally have been where someone reported an issue, sometimes misunderstanding like the restaurant that was open for takeout only and sometimes for violations like not quarantining after returning from the US.
> 
> While the parks were closed, those were patrolled more often where what you are talking about probably happened but nothing like as widespread as you seem to be describing.
> 
> 
> Can you point me to a Health Unit order that said one can't leave home, with a few exception like someone returning from outside Canada or crossing provincial lines?
> 
> In my area, the Health Unit was telling people to get out, get exercise - just to do it with distancing and/or masks as needed.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Oakville Ontario is one prominent case.

Coronavirus: Oakville, Ont., family hit with $880 ticket after going rollerblading

I'm saying that it happened, how did I describe it as "widespread". I just said that it happened, and people felt restricted because of it.


----------



## bgc_fan

Since people have brought up psychological issues regarding the COVID environment, I though this was an interesting study. Apparently those who like horror movies and are morbidly curious were more psychologically prepared for COVID. Pandemic practice: Horror fans and morbidly curious individuals are more psychologically resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic


----------



## andrewf

^ I think the interesting thing is that a pandemic is not like I think most people expected. In movies they seem exciting and chaotic. In practice, they are are boring and lonely. It might be a function of this particular illness that it is not 'scarier', in that it mostly kills the elderly and has a relatively low mortality rate (compares to even other coronavirus like SARS and MERS, much less ebola). I can see the Spanish flu being more terrifying, as it struck down people in the prime of life and was rapid.


----------



## bgc_fan

Like I mentioned before, remember all those horror movies where people do stupid things against common sense? Yeah, we're living it.


----------



## james4beach

European numbers continue to rapidly rise and the UK is near a tipping point where they might have to do a second lock down.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/britain-covid-19-1.5731606





andrewf said:


> I think the interesting thing is that a pandemic is not like I think most people expected. In movies they seem exciting and chaotic. In practice, they are are boring and lonely.


That's a neat observation. I think you're right.

This weekend, I was going to meet up with a friend and go hiking together. This would have involved a lot of time in the car together. Sadly, I woke up with a scratchy throat. Not particularly worrying normally, and I don't feel sick, but it's not sensible to expose the second person to that risk -- so I cancelled, and went walking alone instead.


----------



## Money172375

Schools in Quebec City to close for 2 weeks. Sigh......


----------



## like_to_retire

Money172375 said:


> Schools in Quebec City to close for 2 weeks. Sigh......


I thought it was just one school?

ltr


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Oakville Ontario is one prominent case ...


Sure ... and while I hope they won or whomever is in charge changed the criteria for tickets.
While I can see it discouraging people from going onto community centre parking lots, I'm not sure it would discourage people from going outside.



MrMatt said:


> ... I'm saying that it happened, how did I describe it as "widespread". I just said that it happened, and people felt restricted because of it.


Won't it have to be widespread to intimidate people from leaving their property or feeling like they are under house arrest?
I suppose those planning on dong the same activity might feel restricted but I don't see why it would be more than a few people.


Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> Sure ... and while I hope they won or whomever is in charge changed the criteria for tickets.
> While I can see it discouraging people from going onto community centre parking lots, I'm not sure it would discourage people from going outside.
> 
> Won't it have to be widespread to intimidate people from leaving their property or feeling like they are under house arrest?
> I suppose those planning on dong the same activity might feel restricted but I don't see why it would be more than a few people.
> 
> 
> Cheers



1. I personally felt discouraged going to the closed (like with highway barriers) parking lot once the health unit vehicle showed up and started watching us.

2. The orders were province wide, several authorities were being overzealous. In my city bylaw and parking enforcement is VERY aggressive, so we felt more "at risk".


----------



## Eclectic12

The blockage (at least that's what I'm thinking the "withhighway barriers") to the parking lot didn't discourage you before the health unit vehicle showed up?
What areas were being watched/ticketed?

So when you felt at risk for going outside - did that mean switching to a grocery delivery service to avoid leaving?


Cheers


----------



## james4beach

Eclectic12 said:


> The blockage (at least that's what I'm thinking the "withhighway barriers") to the parking lot didn't discourage you before the health unit vehicle showed up?
> What areas were being watched/ticketed?
> 
> So when you felt at risk for going outside - did that mean switching to a grocery delivery service to avoid leaving?


I've seen barricades in some parking lots to prevent excessive crowding into various public area parking lots. That makes sense to me. But that's not house arrest. There was no house arrest in Canada. In the Oakville example, those people were ticketed for failing to maintain distance between people.

You can always leave the house, go walking, biking, whatever. I always left (and went driving too) during the worst of the lock down. Yes you are supposed to maintain distance from other people.

Restrictions on crowding with others? YES
Restrictions on leaving your house or going outside for a walk/bike? NO, it didn't happen (unless you're infected)

I think I'll go for a nice long walk today, actually. Just as I've always been able to do through the pandemic.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I've seen barricades in some parking lots to prevent excessive crowding into various public area parking lots. That makes sense to me. But that's not house arrest. There was no house arrest in Canada. In the Oakville example, those people were ticketed for failing to maintain distance between people.
> 
> You can always leave the house, go walking, biking, whatever. I always left (and went driving too) during the worst of the lock down. Yes you are supposed to maintain distance from other people.
> 
> Restrictions on crowding with others? YES
> Restrictions on leaving your house or going outside for a walk/bike? NO, it didn't happen (unless you're infected)
> 
> I think I'll go for a nice long walk today, actually. Just as I've always been able to do through the pandemic.


The point is that the family was ticketed and harrassed by law enforcement.
Even though they clearly didn't even violate the letter or intent of the health order.

No heath order in Canada required people who live within the same dwelling unit to maintain distance from each other.

The facts are that the family was ticketted for rollerblading by themselves. I agree it was overzealous, but it did happen, and it did have people stay inside more.

I know FOR A FACT that this influenced some peoples actions.
So you can't say that it didn't have an impact, because it absolutely did.

The problem with claiming "never" is that it only takes a single occurance to prove you wrong.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> The facts are that the family was ticketted for rollerblading by themselves. I agree it was overzealous, but it did happen, and it did have people stay inside more.
> 
> I know FOR A FACT that this influenced some peoples actions.


I see what you mean. Yes that kind of ticketing is overzealous and I don't want to see that either. Simply telling the bylaw officers "we are a family who lives together" should be enough.

And I agree that this kind of event will influence some peoples actions, you are right. At the same time, bylaw enforcement is necessary during a serious pandemic and they can't get it right all the time.

I think you're making too much of one incident. Yes maybe there are a couple rare examples of overzealous enforcement, but there's also a ton of examples of UNDER enforcement, like the giant parties that I've been seeing weekly in public parks for the last few months. If looking at Canada as a whole, it was far more common to have under enforcement.

Enforcement of anything is difficult and there will be mistakes, but on the balance of things, I think Canada has been very "light" on enforcement so I don't share your concern.


----------



## Money172375

like_to_retire said:


> I thought it was just one school?
> 
> ltr


Oh good. Must have read the headline wrong.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I think you're making too much of one incident.


Okay, that's your opinion.
But lots of people make a "big deal" over "just one incident".


----------



## sags

COVID is in the second wave. It will get worse before it gets better. Only a vaccine can save us from this scourge.

The Throne speech so perfectly delivered by Governor General Julie Payette, laid out for Canadians the immediate future as a stark reminder of the depth and cost of the pandemic we find ourselves trapped in. Nobody wants to be here.........but the COVID is still in control.

The government will pay whatever it costs and now is not the time for austerity......were the words from the speech that mean the most.

Trudeau has affirmed financial support for Canadians regardless of how long it takes or what it costs.

Batten down the hatches....it is going to be a long winter.

P.S. It might be a good time to stock up on supplies again.


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> COVID is in the second wave. It will get worse before it gets better. Only a vaccine can save us from this scourge.
> 
> Trudeau has affirmed financial support for Canadians regardless of how long it takes or what it costs.


Maybe I am wrong (I hope so), but I see the early signs as suggesting (as I think many of us believed from the outset) that there will never be an effective vaccine. If that turns out to be the case, can Trudeau assure there will be support for all for 10 years, 20 years, 50 years? Does Canada have that much in reserve? Enough to support the bulk of the population for generations? C-19 will be here that long. And most here support the idea of lockdowns virtually in perpetuity. And much more onerous ones at that. Like you say, batten down. I foresee lockdowns enforced by arms. That is what the public is starting to demand. People here are saying imposing monetary fines on partygoers is not doing the trick. Bullets in the head will be seen as acceptable soon. Never mind due process. C-19 does not care about due process.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> COVID is in the second wave. It will get worse before it gets better. Only a vaccine can save us from this scourge.
> 
> The Throne speech so perfectly delivered by Governor General Julie Payette, laid out for Canadians the immediate future as a stark reminder of the depth and cost of the pandemic we find ourselves trapped in. Nobody wants to be here.........but the COVID is still in control.
> 
> The government will pay whatever it costs and now is not the time for austerity......were the words from the speech that mean the most.
> 
> Trudeau has affirmed financial support for Canadians regardless of how long it takes or what it costs.
> 
> Batten down the hatches....it is going to be a long winter.
> 
> P.S. It might be a good time to stock up on supplies again.


That's scary, we're thundering toward disaster and Trudeau has no intention of making the hard decisions.

The thing is we're spending money on COVID at an insane rate, and early in when the numbers were looking at high single digit deaths, that made sense.
But we're going to be on this for a LONG time, and we can't keep spending at our current rates. 
We're racking on debt way too fast, and that's not even considering that 2020 tax revenue will be down a lot.

The governments fiscal update points out that federal debt increased by 20% of GDP due to COVID19.
With reduced employment, another 2 years could mean federal debt at 100% of GDP. Add in provincial debt and we're in real trouble.

I'm not saying stop all COVID19 funding, but we have to cut back somewhere so we can provide essential supports for the next year or 2. Now is not the time to go crazy piling on even more spending.

Chart A3.5 really shows what's going on




__





Debt Management Strategy for 2020-21 - Canada.ca







www.canada.ca


----------



## andrewf

I have to think that a lot of the deficit is reduced tax revenue, not purely higher spending.

Definitely agree though. I don't think now is the time for any new costly social programs when the financial picture is so murky. Borrowing 20% of GDP in one year is unprecedented outside of wartime and definitely not sustainable.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I have to think that a lot of the deficit is reduced tax revenue, not purely higher spending.
> 
> Definitely agree though. I don't think now is the time for any new costly social programs when the financial picture is so murky. Borrowing 20% of GDP in one year is unprecedented outside of wartime and definitely not sustainable.


That's what's really concerning me.
We're looking at 20% of GDP for this year.
COVID will likely be with us in some form for 1-2, best case, combined with reduced tax revenue, I think shortfalls of 20% GDP might be possible, that means we'll be hitting Federal Debt to GDP of 100%, plus we have large provincial debts.

Fortunately our municipal debt problem isnt' as bad, Ontario municipalities are restricted on debt, not sure about the other provinces.

I understand helping, but I feel like we have to triage a bit.
Like on an airplane, put your oxygen mask on first. Our federal government must ensure they remain solvent and able to help.


----------



## sags

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was on CTV news last night and pointed out some facts.

1) Canada entered the pandemic as the lowest debt to GDP in the G7 nations.

2) Interest rates are at historic lows and the government can amortize the debt for 20 years or more.

3) Despite the increased spending, the actual dollar cost of servicing the debt is the lowest in 100 years.

4) If Canada does nothing to support Canadians, the economy will collapse.

MP brings up a good point. If we don't find a vaccine at some point we will have to lock down the entire country and the economy will collapse.

I think until we reach that point, Canada will spend every dime they can to support Canadians. We are "all in" on this now.

One has to think if Canada reaches that stage it may not matter. Imagine what the US and rest of the world will look like.

Perhaps at that point all the countries would agree to a debt jubilee and let the chips fall where they may.

It would be really bad, but necessary to restart the global economy.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> MP brings up a good point. If we don't find a vaccine at some point we will have to lock down the entire country and the economy will collapse.


Sorry, we need a plan for the reality that we don't have an effective vaccine available today, and may not in the near future.



sags said:


> I think until we reach that point, Canada will spend every dime they can to support Canadians. We are "all in" on this now.


Yes, every dime we can. But we need a real plan to support Canadians over the next months and years.
We can't blow all our money now.



sags said:


> Perhaps at that point all the countries would agree to a debt jubilee and let the chips fall where they may.
> 
> It would be really bad, but necessary to restart the global economy.


Do you think the Government of Canada simply telling Canadians that their savings are "gone" is going to be acceptable?
Did you even read that most of the Governments debt is held by Canadians?

I'm sorry, but you're got to be pretty delusional if you think Canadians will be okay with the Government seizing our savings.


----------



## cainvest

Mukhang pera said:


> Maybe I am wrong (I hope so), but I see the early signs as suggesting (as I think many of us believed from the outset) that there will never be an effective vaccine. If that turns out to be the case, can Trudeau assure there will be support for all for 10 years, 20 years, 50 years? Does Canada have that much in reserve? Enough to support the bulk of the population for generations? C-19 will be here that long. And most here support the idea of lockdowns virtually in perpetuity. And much more onerous ones at that. Like you say, batten down. I foresee lockdowns enforced by arms. That is what the public is starting to demand. People here are saying imposing monetary fines on partygoers is not doing the trick.


I don't see most supporting lockdowns, many are just going about their daily lives from what I see. I do agree that fines are a good idea, they just need to "truely implement" that regulation and maybe make the fines higher for significant groupings over the allowed amount. If no vaccine comes, life and the economy will go on albeit with a ongoing number of related deaths.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> I don't see most supporting lockdowns, many are just going about their daily lives from what I see. I do agree that fines are a good idea, they just need to "truely implement" that regulation and maybe make the fines higher for significant groupings over the allowed amount. If not vaccine comes, life and the economy will go on albeit with a ongoing number of related deaths.


They've half assed the lockdowns and restrictions from the PM on down, that's why people don't restrict them.

Almost everyone I see is wearing a mask, I'm even seeing more noses covered.


----------



## sags

Ontario doctors sent a letter to Ontario's Doug Ford warning that he must reverse the openings for restaurants, gyms, theatres, churches, schools and enclosed places. To fail to do so will mean the pandemic runs rampant and creates a crisis in healthcare. We shall see how Ford responds.

I was talking via phone to our 11 year old grandson entering Grade 7 this week. He says the school bus and classrooms are crowded and they don't wear masks during recess. This is an unsustainable situation that is bound to spread the virus to others in the community.

We need to close everything down and stop the sharp increase in infections before it is too late.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ontario doctors sent a letter to Ontario's Doug Ford warning that he must reverse the openings for restaurants, gyms, theatres, churches, schools and enclosed places. To fail to do so will mean the pandemic runs rampant and creates a crisis in healthcare. We shall see how Ford responds.


Which Doctors?
Source?
Link to the letter?

You know, there is a substantial cost to keeping everyone locked up, and businesses shut down. 
The lockdown has already caused significant harm to people, even deaths, and shouldn't be entered lightly.


----------



## calm

Hospitality workers and tourism will suffer hugely.
The entertainment districts of both Toronto and Montreal is bankrupt,
The economy is hiring delivery drivers only.


----------



## calm

MrMatt said:


> You know, there is a substantial cost to keeping everyone locked up, and businesses shut down.
> The lockdown has already caused significant harm to people, even deaths, and shouldn't be entered lightly.


Trudeau needs pay people to stay "close" to home. Probably 2,500 per month maximum. And for 18 months at least.

If Trudeau does not invest into the community, he will need to invest in police uniforms,

How much money should we spend on tear gas and overtime pay for the police?


----------



## Beaver101

calm said:


> *Hospitality workers and tourism will suffer hugely.
> The entertainment districts of both Toronto and Montreal is bankrupt,*
> The economy is hiring delivery drivers only.


 ... very true. Very challenging times and dark days ahead for that sector.


----------



## sags

The Liberal proposal is to reduce the government support from $2000 a month for CERB to $1600 a month under a new program and EI.

The NDP demand the benefit be retained at $2000 a month ($500 a week) and to pass the tabled legislation to provide 10 paid sick days a year.

I think the Liberals will include the minor NDP demands and have the Throne Speech passed.

If the Conservatives vote against the Throne Speech and further funding for Canadians they will look very bad to voters.


----------



## MrMatt

calm said:


> Trudeau needs pay people to stay "close" to home. Probably 2,500 per month maximum. And for 18 months at least.
> 
> If Trudeau does not invest into the community, he will need to invest in police uniforms,
> 
> How much money should we spend on tear gas and overtime pay for the police?


FFS Trudeau was encouraging and participating mass gatherings.


----------



## calm

sags said:


> The Liberal proposal is to reduce the government support from $2000 a month for CERB to $1600 a month under a new program and EI.
> The NDP demand the benefit be retained at $2000 a month ($500 a week) and to pass the tabled legislation to provide 10 paid sick days a year.


I am single and it costs me a minimum of 2 thousand bucks just to get up every morning and turn on the lights. Rent = 1,300. (One Bedroom)
----
Toronto and Montreal are tourist mecca's. The City Council has lost a huge tax sector. Our lives were built on culture and social events because we are social animals. This Service Sector is toast without a bail-out.


----------



## MrMatt

calm said:


> I am single and it costs me a minimum of 2 thousand bucks just to get up every morning and turn on the lights. Rent = 1,300. (One Bedroom)
> ----
> Toronto and Montreal are tourist mecca's. The City Council has lost a huge tax sector. Our lives were built on culture and social events because we are social animals. This Service Sector is toast without a bail-out.


1. Don't live in Toronto. Or accept that there are costs to that lifestyle.
2. If Toronto charged similar property tax rates as the rest of the province, they'd be swimming in cash. FYI, the residential tax rate is less than half London


----------



## calm

MrMatt said:


> 1. Don't live in Toronto. Or accept that there are costs to that lifestyle.
> 2. If Toronto charged similar property tax rates as the rest of the province, they'd be swimming in cash. FYI, the residential tax rate is less than half London


I am thinking commercial space.


----------



## MrMatt

calm said:


> I am thinking commercial space.


I'm reading your words. Not your mind.

The city can repossess the properties that don't pay their taxes.


----------



## calm

MrMatt said:


> I'm reading your words. Not your mind.
> 
> The city can repossess the properties that don't pay their taxes.


 There is no line up in order to rent the properties and commercial spaces.


----------



## sags

The Liberals raised the new benefit to $500 a week. People can earn up to $1,000 per month and the benefit is reduced by 50 cents for every dollar over $38,000 per year. It will operate like the EI program of reporting and benefits every 2 weeks retroactively. That should eliminate some of the fraud.

The NDP should be able to support the government now.

People are now assured they will be able to survive this second wave of COVID.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I'm reading your words. Not your mind.
> 
> *The city can repossess the properties that don't pay their taxes.*


 .. and do what with these possessed properties? Play being landlords?


----------



## Eclectic12

Mukhang pera said:


> Maybe I am wrong (I hope so), but I see the early signs as suggesting (as I think many of us believed from the outset) that there will never be an effective vaccine ...


Which signs are convincing that where there are coronavirus vaccines for animals - there will never be for humans?




Mukhang pera said:


> ... If that turns out to be the case, can Trudeau assure there will be support for all for 10 years, 20 years, 50 years?


Doubtful ... IMO anyway.

Cheers


----------



## Mukhang pera

Eclectic12 said:


> Which signs are convincing that where there are coronavirus vaccines for animals - there will never be for humans?
> 
> 
> 
> Doubtful ... IMO anyway.
> 
> Cheers


Eclectic12,

I was not aware that humans had successfully been administering coronavirus vaccines to animals. Thank you for enlightening me.

From what I have read, the common cold and the flu are caused by corona viruses and they have not been successfully addressed by vaccines. But I am not a scientist, a medical doctor, a virologist or anything else that gives me credentials to talk about this matter. My opinion is worthless. However, here on cmf, there appears to be quite a few who have great expertise. I'll defer to those learned types.

In another thread, I referred to an "open letter" supposedly penned by a Belgian physician and supported by many other peers of that doctor. Here on cmf I was told, in no uncertain terms, by such scholars as andrewf and bcc_fan, that the "open letter" was childish gibberish and not worthy of being dignified with a response. I will take it that those two are eminently qualified to speak to the topic. I am not so qualified. I have some expertise in the law. Full stop. So I am content to defer to their expertise in the areas of medicine, immunology and related topics. I am sure they would not be taking strong positions if they did not have the credentials and expertise to back up their words. And I think they speak for the majority here.

I really have no horse in this race. I live in a remote, off-grid locale and can remain isolated and independent for the rest of my days. I really don't much care how it all plays out. If the virus reduces the human population to a sustainable level, that's good. By that, I mean about 10% of what we now have. That would leave room for nature and a pleasant lifestyle for humans. Take a look at Canada. A huge population huddled along the U.S. border, laying waste to the tiny amount of arable land we have. And every government for decades insisting we need more, more, more. And the U.S., with a population of over 350 million, where 30 million would allow for a decent life for all. That might even include some animals in the wild, some fish in the lakes and streams, a few migratory birds, and a chance for whales to survive. But humans see all of nature as expendable. Natures creatures should move out and be exterminated to make way for more millions of us. We see that as the natural order.

As I see it, Mother Nature has for a long time being trying to control runaway human population. She tried, inter alia, with AIDS, ebola. SARS, & c. We keep defeating her and continuing on the road to destruction of the planet. C-19 is her latest salvo. It's making people nervous and angry. Witness the hostility we are now seeing more frequently around the world and exemplified to some extent by posts here. A lot of pent-up anger is showing. It will get worse. There will be more violence. A lot more. Batten down, as sags has warned. I am not worried about it. All for the good in the long run. No law says humans have some right to run roughshod over the planet in perpetuity. If C-19 represents the chickens coming home to roost, the day of reckoning or whatever you care to call it, we should embrace it. That is why I have said here, months ago, we should do nothing and let it run its course. Come what may. 

I am not an anti-vaxxer, an anti-masker or anything else. I just don't much care. Will I fall in line and don a mask at Costco? Sure, I'll play. Will I roll up my sleeve and try out an early vaccine? No way. As for me and my house, if C-19 runs rampant, with our ability to survive quite well without coming within a mile of another human for a very long time, frankly I don't give a you know. If gold goes to $100,000 an ounce or to zero, if stock markets reach the stratosphere or plummet to the bottom of the Mariana Trench, makes no difference to me. If the supply of $45,000 condos that rent for $850 a month dries up or if they become $5,000 condos renting for $1,000 per month, okay. My life won't change a whit. 

Even if some posters here have the depth of knowledge and expertise they claim, at least tacitly, so what? They are wasting their time here. No one here will be convinced by the opinion of another member. Here, people just state and re-state their views, in ever more shrill language. For naught. They would do well to direct their efforts to joining in the efforts of all those others who have relevant knowledge and expertise and assist in coming up with a solution, if they believe that can be done. Blazing away on cmf is just a bit silly. Counts for nothing at all. I recognize my posts here are not worth the powder to blow them to that place the shell-pink ears of the cmf censors will find opprobrious. Do I really think my views will change those of anyone else? Absolutely not. Will they raise the ire of some and make some feel obliged to offer rebuke? Most certainly, however ineffective that might be.


----------



## MrMatt

Mukhang pera said:


> Eclectic12,
> 
> I was not aware that humans had successfully been administering coronavirus vaccines to animals. Thank you for enlightening me.
> 
> From what I have read, the common cold and the flu are caused by corona viruses and they have not been successfully addressed by vaccines. But I am not a scientist, a medical doctor, a virologist or anything else that gives me credentials to talk about this matter. My opinion is worthless. However, here on cmf, there appears to be quite a few who have great expertise. I'll defer to those learned types.


No
Common is hundreds of viruses, typically rhinoviruses and coronaviruses.
Flu is Influenza, a different virus.



> Even if some posters here have the depth of knowledge and expertise they claim, at least tacitly, so what? They are wasting their time here. No one here will be convinced by the opinion of another member. Here, people just state and re-state their views, in ever more shrill language. For naught. They would do well to direct their efforts to joining in the efforts of all those others who have relevant knowledge and expertise and assist in coming up with a solution, if they believe that can be done. Blazing away on cmf is just a bit silly. Counts for nothing at all. I recognize my posts here are not worth the powder to blow them to that place the shell-pink ears of the cmf censors will find opprobrious. Do I really think my views will change those of anyone else? Absolutely not. Will they raise the ire of some and make some feel obliged to offer rebuke? Most certainly, however ineffective that might be.


That's also likely correct.


----------



## MrMatt

Testing shortages.
Just watching the news
In London today we have 2 test sites.

The first hit capacity at the scheduled opening time.
The second hit capacity 1 hour before the site was open.

The province really needs to step up and get enough test capacity.


----------



## Eclectic12

Mukhang pera said:


> ... From what I have read, the common cold and the flu are caused by corona viruses and they have not been successfully addressed by vaccines. But I am not a scientist ...


I'm not a scientist either.

Google searches turn up that the flu is caused by the influenza virus. There are four of the seven corona viruses _that affect humans_ that cause mild cold and flu like symptoms but as they aren't all that bad, I doubt there has been much investment interest in developing a vaccine.

*Edit:*
Sorry about dropping the "that affect humans" part. There are references to hundreds so there's far more than seven in total. 


I'm asking questions to see if I've missed info. The typical media headline about no vaccine for a corona virus makes it sound like candidates failed. Searches say multiple candidates were in the final stages but put into storage because the reduction of the risk resulted in funding being dropped. It's not a guarantee of success but it's different than assuming everything failed.

The other reason I was asking is because the genome was published early this year so in terms of vaccine development, it's early days. It seems too early IMO to put much weight behind issues or failures or successes.




Mukhang pera said:


> I was not aware that humans had successfully been administering coronavirus vaccines to animals. Thank you for enlightening me ...
> Even if some posters here have the depth of knowledge and expertise they claim, at least tacitly, so what? They are wasting their time here. No one here will be convinced by the opinion of another member ...


I'm not following ... finding out new info is good but won't change anything?


Returning more to what I suspect you preferred to explore - while I don't think Trudeau and company can support everyone for decades, I also don't know if C19 will last that long. SARS cases lasted for about thirteen months so one possibility is that C19 goes in a somewhat similar way. Or it could go for decades, causing lots of problems.


Cheers


----------



## calm

" COVID-19 mortality rates were 30% lower in unionized nursing homes in New York. When there was a union, workers had significantly greater access to N95 masks and eye shields, and infection rates were lower."








Mortality Rates From COVID-19 Are Lower In Unionized Nursing Homes | Health Affairs Journal


More than 40 percent of all reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths in the United States have occurred in nursing homes. As a result, health care workers’ access to personal protective equipment (PPE) and infection control policies in nursing homes have received increased attention...



www.healthaffairs.org


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Testing shortages.
> Just watching the news
> In London today we have 2 test sites.
> 
> The first hit capacity at the scheduled opening time.
> The second hit capacity 1 hour before the site was open.
> 
> The province really needs to step up and get enough test capacity.


Trudeau gave the Provinces $19 Billion for testing. Where is the testing ?

The CBC Marketplace just released an in-depth investigation on nursing homes and it is really bad for the Ford government.

Tough questions ahead for the Ford government.


----------



## sags

calm said:


> " COVID-19 mortality rates were 30% lower in unionized nursing homes in New York. When there was a union, workers had significantly greater access to N95 masks and eye shields, and infection rates were lower."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mortality Rates From COVID-19 Are Lower In Unionized Nursing Homes | Health Affairs Journal
> 
> 
> More than 40 percent of all reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths in the United States have occurred in nursing homes. As a result, health care workers’ access to personal protective equipment (PPE) and infection control policies in nursing homes have received increased attention...
> 
> 
> 
> www.healthaffairs.org


I think the same results would be found in Ontario. 

Unionized workplaces have health and safety committees and employees can report problems anonymously without fear of termination.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Trudeau gave the Provinces $19 Billion for testing. Where is the testing ?
> 
> The CBC Marketplace just released an in-depth investigation on nursing homes and it is really bad for the Ford government.
> 
> Tough questions ahead for the Ford government.


COVID-19 case data: All Ontario
Testing has gone from 10k/day to 40k/day and they're trying to ramp it up further.


Yeah, Conservatives are held accountable, so there will be tough questions for Ford.

Trudeau though, he's damn near Teflon, I honestly can't think of what he could do that would drop his public support.


----------



## andrewf

Did you miss the whole WE thing this summer?


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> COVID-19 case data: All Ontario
> Testing has gone from 10k/day to 40k/day and they're trying to ramp it up further.
> 
> 
> Yeah, Conservatives are held accountable, so there will be tough questions for Ford.
> 
> Trudeau though, he's damn near Teflon, I honestly can't think of what he could do that would drop his public support.


Now here is my question. If we know that a lot of people have the virus and they don't even know they have it. We know they were not being tested before and consequently we ended up with a certain number of infections/day. Now lets say we INCREASE our testing rate from 10K/day to 40K/day. Obviously we are going to see our infection numbers rise by an almost similar amount, just because of the increased testing.

So if we are dialing down the economy because of todays rising infections. What will be appropriate thing to do when daily infections go up by 400%, which they should, even if nothing has changed with respect to infection rates.

Is anybody else wondering about this kind of stuff? Are things really getting worse? It's kind of like binge eating for a month straight and then wondering why you have been gaining weight lately.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Now here is my question. If we know that a lot of people have the virus and they don't even know they have it. We know they were not being tested before and consequently we ended up with a certain number of infections/day. Now lets say we INCREASE our testing rate from 10K/day to 40K/day. Obviously we are going to see our infection numbers rise by an almost similar amount, just because of the increased testing.
> 
> So if we are dialing down the economy because of todays rising infections. What will be appropriate thing to do when daily infections go up by 400%, which they should, even if nothing has changed with respect to infection rates.
> 
> Is anybody else wondering about this kind of stuff? Are things really getting worse? It's kind of like binge eating for a month straight and then wondering why you have been gaining weight lately.


It's hard to extrapolate the data, but if the positivity rate changes drastically that could be a factor.
For quite a period they weren't maxing out the testing sites.
Right now we're in a surge, and that's when you're going to under count.


Also now, if your kid has "COVID Symptoms" they can't go back to school without a COVID19 test, that's going to overwhelm the system by itself.
When kids and parents were at home, you wouldn't bother getting a test.
Now to get back to work, you need a test, so the demand will increase accordingly.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Even using the positivity rate is misleading. For example the new covid19 app. Lets say it worked great. Anytime someone who had a positive result, the app pointed us directly to the people who were probably infected by that person. Those people would then be asked to go get a test and of course many of them would show to be positive. Great. Contact tracing at is finest. But wait. Would it not start to show an INCREASE IN POSITIVITY RATES. So, we would be GETTING BETTER at finding the infected, but would LOOK LIKE WE ARE DOING WORSE when it comes to the positivity rate.

I will cut to the chase:

We are looking at the wrong numbers. Infections are not the problem. Hospitalizations and deaths are the problem. So we need to stop looking at the change in daily infections. We need to stop looking at changes in positivity rates. What we need to start doing is looking more at:

*Daily Hospital Admissions* and *Deaths per Hospital Admissions*

That is the problem. Why are we not almost exclusively looking at that. The other numbers are simply a distraction and right now, I believe, are leading us in the wrong direction. We are getting the wrong information from them.


----------



## MrMatt

I agree that deaths are a hard to fudge number.
Hospitalizations etc are also good, but they're lagging indicators.

Fortunately we've had very few deaths, which makes statistics hard.

Cases are a much higher number, which is good for estimating what's really going on. 

Please bear with this example.
lets say we get 
100 Positive tests, in a week we get 10 hospitalizations in another 2-3 weeks we get a death.

also that same data could be maybe 0 deaths, maybe 2, but be statistically similar.
Secondly many parts of ontario were only getting a handful of positive tests a day, so virtually no hospitalizations or deaths, it's hard to see how things are doing.

I think timeliness of data is important, that's why I support testing.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I am not suggesting we don't test. We have to test. Obviously we want to eliminate infections to eliminate hospitalizations and deaths. The problem is that to eliminate infections we must first find them. The better we do finding them the worse we look, when in actuality we are actually doing well. We found them.

I agree the time lag is unfortuneate, but infection numbers alone don't tell us much. Higher numbers could mean we are doing poorly and more people are getting infected or it could mean we are doing better by finding the people who have been infected but would normally not be found, but could have infected others, but now will not.

You see what I mean. Just because a number is timely, does not mean it tells us what we want to know. Are things getting better or are things getting worse? Infection numbers can't tell us that.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> I am not suggesting we don't test. We have to test. Obviously we want to eliminate infections to eliminate hospitalizations and deaths. The problem is that to eliminate infections we must first find them. The better we do finding them the worse we look, when in actuality we are actually doing well. We found them.
> 
> I agree the time lag is unfortuneate, but infection numbers alone don't tell us much. Higher numbers could mean we are doing poorly and more people are getting infected or it could mean we are doing better by finding the people who have been infected but would normally not be found, but could have infected others, but now will not.
> 
> You see what I mean. Just because a number is timely, does not mean it tells us what we want to know. Are things getting better or are things getting worse? Infection numbers can't tell us that.


I agree with your thinking.
I agree that the validity of the positive covid19 tests is much less than hospitalizations and deaths are really a great objective measure.


That being said, the lag, and the low incidence is problematic.
I'd like to point out some ontario data, they use week numbers.

But after giving it a quick skim, I'd like to make a few points.



https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-weekly-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en




Compare Figure 2 total numbers to Figure 5.
figure 2 suggests we had a problem a month ago, for example wk 34,35, and definately 36 show a startling trend.
figure 5 That only showed up in the death numbers on wk38, and even then just barely.

Fortunately our death numbers are so low they tell us almost nothing about what's going on.

Table 2A also gives a sense of what's going on, and you can see while most areas have some cases, it's unlikely they'll have any deaths for weeks.

I'm glad they're stuck dealing the second rate data, because so few are dying.


----------



## sags

The number of deaths only reveals one of the effects. As more young people become infected, long term health effects have become more predominant.

A patient's death ends the healthcare role in their treatment. A person with serious lingering symptoms will be a continuing responsibility for the system.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Fortunately our death numbers are so low they tell us almost nothing about what's going on.


but perhaps our death numbers are telling us exactly what is going on and what it is telling us is that the problem this virus is creating is not as big as we might have thought it was or as it use to be.

I agree, it is better to have a large sample size to get statistical data but at the end of the day, hospitalizations and deaths are the issue, so that is what I think should be dictating our actions. Perhaps in the beginning infection numbers were telling but I don't think they really are anymore.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> but perhaps our death numbers are telling us exactly what is going on and what it is telling us is that the problem this virus is creating is not as big as we might have thought it was or as it use to be.
> 
> I agree, it is better to have a large sample size to get statistical data but at the end of the day, hospitalizations and deaths are the issue, so that is what I think should be dictating our actions. Perhaps in the beginning infection numbers were telling but I don't think they really are anymore.


I think it's good that the death rates are much lower than initially presented.

I think that the hospitalization/death counts should dictate our actions, because that's what matters.
But infections is a not bad leading indicator, and I think those 3-4 week can be invaluable.


----------



## sags

Quebec and Ontario (the 2 most populated Provinces) infection, hospitalizations, and ICU cases are all up significantly.


----------



## andrewf

Quebec at 900 cases, Ontario at 500. Levels last seen in May...


----------



## james4beach

I spoke this weekend with my friend who is overseas. He's in a small town which is mostly full of young foreign tourists in their 20s. The following is a story of what happens when 20 year olds run around without showing any caution at all:

This bug is extremely contagious. Everyone in his house now has COVID. But what's interesting is what he's hearing from other neighbours. He says that virtually everyone he talks to reports that they, or housemates, have COVID. He estimates that "everyone in town" has it. It undoubtedly was spreading at bars and nightclubs, and large house parties, which these people have been doing for several months now.

Some people are lying sick at home with flu-like symptoms. Others never noticed they had it. But remember, they are very young people and generally from richer families, so they are probably in good health to begin with.

He says that they continue to socialize, mix, travel. He says that many tourists are paying bribes and forging disease test results so that they can travel in & out of town, violating quarantine laws.

My friend says he's not too worried because he's caught it, and everyone he knows caught it, but nobody died. I asked him what happens when he and the others spread it to older people, like citizens of that country who aren't in great health, or elderly people.

His answer is that they don't directly socialize with any elderly people, so he sees it as a giant bubble of partying 20 year olds who basically infect each other. I'm not sure I agree with that, because once they spread it to a local shop keeper or a house cleaner (guaranteed to happen) that person is going to return home and pass it to others, perhaps their elderly relatives.

I think he and the entire town of partying 20 year olds is being extremely irresponsible and putting that particular country in danger. If the local residents don't already hate these foreign tourists, they definitely are going to hate them after this.

I argued with him a bit on the phone and said we don't know much about COVID-19 and even young people could see lasting effects, or other health problems (heart problems, blood cots) that aren't fully understood yet. He does not agree with me.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> ...
> 
> I argued with him a bit on the phone and said we don't know much about COVID-19 and even young people could see lasting effects, or other health problems (heart problems, blood cots) that aren't fully understood yet. He does not agree with me.


 .. not much you can do if he doesn't agree with and disbelieves you and continue his reckless ways.

After-all, as a selfish and irresponsible 20 year old invincible-thinking mortal, he got plenty of time (years) to face the consequences (and possibly suffer, with regrets too) on the long term effects of this disease. Party on ...


----------



## sags

Every day......more bad news.......700 cases today which is a record number of daily cases.

Schools closing. COVID spreading. Hospitalizations rising.

The question now is how bad does it have to get before the PC Ontario government takes action.

_At a news conference Wednesday afternoon, Williams reiterated the importance of wearing masks and hand washing, urging Ontarians to limit their contact with people and *only attend essential gatherings* — even though most businesses and establishments in the province are open.

Williams also cautioned against contact with anyone not taking the risk of COVID-19 or the associated public health guidance seriously.

*"I would avoid contact with those people," he said. "They may be someone you know."*_


----------



## Money172375

Ontario hospitals are also asking for a return to stage 2 in the hotspots and The Premier said the 2nd wave will be worse (without explain how).

ive read the peak of the wave is expected mid-to-late Nov. the spring peat was April and things got “normalized” by what August? So we’re looking at Feb for things to return to the lows of August? Who knows....but I fear it will be a long winter. I personally would find isolating much more difficult in the winter. I like my water sports, boating and tennis.


----------



## sags

Quebec is shutting down some regions to code "red" for 28 days effective Oct 1st.

The lock down is blunt and serious. They aren't asking people nicely anymore.


----------



## fstamand

sags said:


> Quebec is shutting down some regions to code "red" for 28 days effective Oct 1st.
> 
> The lock down is blunt and serious. They aren't asking people nicely anymore.


They are not shutting down regions yet, just discouraging people moving from moving between regions. I suspect they will start policing soon, and closing roads/bridges.

It surprises me that they haven't yet actually; they did close everything down in March with less number of cases. Looks like government is looking after businesses before population health this time. Granted by closing down again would force locks on doors at many small and medium business (to never open again).


----------



## Plugging Along

fstamand said:


> They are not shutting down regions yet, just discouraging people moving from moving between regions. I suspect they will start policing soon, and closing roads/bridges.
> 
> It surprises me that they haven't yet actually; they did close everything down in March with less number of cases. Looks like government is looking after businesses before population health this time. Granted by closing down again would force locks on doors at many small and medium business (to never open again).


The number of cases is not the only factor in determining the stages and what gets shut down. In March, there was a lot of unknown regarding the virus and most of the information was based on what was happening in other parts of the world. At that time, countries that did not do anything about the virus early were having mass outbreaks, hospitals at over capacity and more deaths because of the inability to treat. The lockdown in March was to flatten the curve enough that the same thing didn't happen in Canada where there no control, hospitals overwhelmed, and more deaths because there was no ICU available. I also believe that the lock downs were in hope that the virus would disappear or vaccine would be found. There were very few cases, but the Canada needed time to prepare. 

Now, there is a little more known on the virus and how it is transmitted. The death rate and R0 transmission rate is actually lower than what was initially modelled. There is now PPE available for medical professionals, masks are being worn, and there is capacity in most hospitals. The virus is not killing the young and healthy to the degree originally thought. There are additional impacts that were not considered in the immediate pandemic. In beginning, the lockdowns were to save potential lives and gain control of the situation. As there is better control in many places, the other impacts need to be considered. 

People are supposedly more knowledgeable about the virus, and hopefully are taking more precautions such as physical distancing, masking, avoiding large crowds, hygiene, not going out when feeling even a little unwell. At this time, places that are forced to lock down again, are because the citizens choose to 'exercise their freedoms' and do stupid things.


----------



## MrMatt

The strong response in March was an overreaction until we knew what was going on.
Until the widespread lockdowns, we were underreacting, and once that became apparent, the decision was to go all out, and buy time to figure it out.

We know more now, we're also considering the secondary effects.

More lockdowns will come.


----------



## bgc_fan

So, provinces are looking to step back and re-considering lockdowns. What does Florida do? Send out letters to 100,000 businesses and entities, asking if they were “owned or controlled by the Communist Party of China.”









Florida's Hunt For Chinese Communist Ties Comes Up Empty-Handed


The state went looking for Chinese communist companies to hold accountable for the COVID-19 pandemic. It hasn't found any.




www.wlrn.org


----------



## bgc_fan

Some interesting research about genetic susceptibility to COVID.








Study: Neanderthal genes may be liability for COVID-19 patients


Scientists say genes that some people have inherited from their Neanderthal ancestors may increase their likelihood of suffering severe forms of COVID-19.




www.ctvnews.ca












Genetic Variant Associated With Severe COVID-19 Is Inherited From Neanderthals


A new study published in <i>Nature</i> suggests that a segment of DNA that has been linked to an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthal ancestors.




www.technologynetworks.com





It doesn't preclude other pre-existing conditions, or offer any treatment options, but it is interesting. Just another puzzle piece.


----------



## andrewf

Odd then that people of African descent are worse afflicted by COVID. Africans are the only 'pure laine' humans, everyone else has a few percent Neanderthal DNA.


----------



## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> Odd then that people of African descent are worse afflicted by COVID. Africans are the only 'pure laine' humans, everyone else has a few percent Neanderthal DNA.


That's why I mentioned pre-existing conditions are still a factor. For example, there's a higher incidence of diabetes in African American people in the US. Factors contributing to higher incidence of diabetes for black Americans

FWIW, when you look at a global view, Africa is on the lower end of cases per capita: Covid-19/Coronavirus cases (rates / per capita) | Worldmapper


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Odd then that people of African descent are worse afflicted by COVID. Africans are the only 'pure laine' humans, everyone else has a few percent Neanderthal DNA.


I believe when the researchers found that the official response was 
"Do better"
and 
"That's racist"

Apparently that's hate science, crazy world


----------



## calm

It is being reported tonight that Hope Hicks (Trump's closest aid) has tested positive for Covid-19.


----------



## bgc_fan

For those complaining that it is the young who are irresponsible, there are two mid-40 men who went bar hopping while waiting for COVID tests that came back positive. Closed down 5 bars.









Elgin Street bar owners say two irresponsible drinkers closed five establishments


"We've been doing everything we're supposed to be doing, and then to have two people come in like this and jeopardize that, it's crazy, it's maddening."




www.google.com


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> For those complaining that it is the young who are irresponsible, there are two mid-40 men who went bar hopping while waiting for COVID tests that came back positive. Closed down 5 bars.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Elgin Street bar owners say two irresponsible drinkers closed five establishments
> 
> 
> "We've been doing everything we're supposed to be doing, and then to have two people come in like this and jeopardize that, it's crazy, it's maddening."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com


 .. it isn't the "age" thing that's the concern. Look at their profession or this part:



> ...
> Two Elgin Street bar owners say at least five restaurants had to close and have staff members tested for COVID-19 because of the actions of two irresponsible drinkers who went bar-hopping while waiting for their own test results.
> ...
> 
> “It drives me crazy: *they’re government workers, working from home,* *and they go out and jeopardize livelihoods of all these people*,” he fumed. “They’re not supposed to be out. They still go out.”



Guess they were working with the too-hard-at-home BS.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> it isn't the "age" thing that's the concern. Look at their profession or this part:


I was just pointing out that stupidity and irresponsibility cuts across all age groups. Lately it has been bashing 20 year olds for being irresponsible for hosting large parties leading to superspreader events. At least they didn't lead to direct shut down of 5 bars like these 2.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Okay, I see. 

Here's the latest "local (Toronto)" news related to travel:
Man dies from COVID-19 after travelling from Central Africa to Newfoundland via Toronto


And now TPH (Toronto Public Health) states:
Toronto Public Health scales back contact tracing efforts amid soaring COVID-19 infections
which is basically saying, the community is on its own.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> And now TPH (Toronto Public Health) states:
> Toronto Public Health scales back contact tracing efforts amid soaring COVID-19 infections
> which is basically saying, the community is on its own.


This battle against COVID is a joint effort between the public + health authorities.

The public has to wear masks and stop excessive socializing to limit the spread. Then, health authorities can do contact tracing to manage the inevitable cases that still result. Together, we can stay in control of the situation.

But if the public drops the ball and doesn't do their part, health authorities can't pick up all the slack... it's beyond their capabilities.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> This battle against COVID is a joint effort between the public + health authorities.
> 
> The public has to wear masks and stop excessive socializing to limit the spread. Then, health authorities can do contact tracing to manage the inevitable cases that still result. Together, we can stay in control of the situation.


 ... don't disagree but then there's the "Special-Me-Not-A-Sheeple" public who will never cooperate.



> But if the public drops the ball and doesn't do their part, health authorities can't pick up all the slack... it's beyond their capabilities.


 .. the link above doesn't work now but here's the new one with the entire article pasted & bolded part questionable:

Toronto Public Health scales back contact tracing efforts amid soaring COVID-19 infections



> As new cases of COVID-19 in Toronto continue to climb, *some residents who test positive for the disease will now be responsible for their own contact tracing, according the city’s health agency.*
> 
> In an email, Toronto Public Health (TPH) says that when cases reach a high level, health officials must “make a strategic shift and temporarily re-prioritize case and contact management to focus on the highest risk scenarios.”
> Speaking at a news conference on Friday, Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa said that “shift” in contact tracing would take effect immediately and last until cases start to trend downwards.
> 
> This means that some of those who test positive for COVID-19 in Toronto will now only be provided with instructions to notify their high risk contacts.
> 
> Prior to Friday’s announcement, the city’s dedicated case and contact management team, which consists of 700 people (the largest in the country), would conduct the contact tracing themselves and reach out to the patient’s high risk contacts.
> 
> De Villa has underscored the importance of contact tracing since the beginning of the pandemic, saying the protocol is paramount in curbing the spread of the novel coronavirus in the city.
> 
> *The new rules only apply to those infected with the disease outside of congregate settings such as long-term care homes, hospitals and schools. Contact tracing will continue to be conducted by TPH for those infected with COVID-19 in any of those settings.*
> 
> On Friday, Dr. Eileen de Villa penned an open letter to Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams asking for a series of new restrictions that would be in place for the city for the next 28 day.
> 
> The recommendations include the suspension of indoor dining at bars and restaurants as well as the cancellation of all group fitness classes and sports activities that take place indoors, essentially returning Toronto to something more closely resembling the lockdown that was in place in the spring.
> 
> “The reason I am asking the province to undertake additional public health measures is to drive overall case counts down,” de Villa said. “When this happens, we will return to the previous case and contact management strategies.”
> 
> On Saturday, TPH reported 335 new cases of the disease, the most of any of the province’s 34 public health units. It should be noted, however, that nine cases were added as a result of a “data cleaning initiative” and do not reflect new or recent cases.
> 
> Dr. Michael Warner, of Michael Garron Hospital in East York, argued that Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Dr. Williams are effectively putting “ankle weights” on TPH if they don’t listen to those calls from the city.
> 
> “It’s just not fair to Toronto Public Health to expect them to protect us when the provincial government won’t implement policies that will allow them to keep us safe,” he said speaking to CP24 on Saturday.
> 
> “Wave two is going to be far different than wave one, I think it’s going to be longer and could even be more intense unless Dr. Williams and Premier Ford make the decisions that are so clear and needed to be made two weeks ago.”


 ... my question to the TPH is what are the chance that those "positive people" are gonna to take on the task (even with the clearest instructions given) of doing the contact tracing? *Nil I bet *... which is also an invitation of non-self-quarantine since there'll be no enforcement. What does this mean then? The infection continues around and everyone else (more) suffers.

Maybe this is the idea of TPH of performing a "herd immunity" experiment.

As for TPH (focus) will continue doing contact tracing on LTC, hospitals and schools.
Aren't outbreaks management (which includes contact tracing) being managed by those every institutions "adminstration" in the first place? Which would be overseen by the province? Perhaps with some assistance from TPH?

Or are those 700(? if not more) TPH workers gonna to doing phone contact tracing for every positives found at the LTC, hospitals and schools, relieving the duties of those who were responsible (adminstrators or Covid19 specialists) for that duty in the first place?

And what is the purpose of resuming contact tracing for the public when the "community's numbers start trending down? That's like paying someone the same when there's no or less business.

This "new" focus of TPH's makes no sense other than shirking its responsibilities. Why don't they just claim that they're can't handle this 2nd wave and demand the province's help - eg. put on some lightbulbs and flash the hammer and demand severe enforcements/fines/jail terms, and the likes if not a total lockdown due to the non-compliers. We're suffer all together.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> This "new" focus of TPH's makes no sense other than shirking its responsibilities. Why don't they just claim that they're can't handle this 2nd wave and demand the province's help - eg. put on some lightbulbs and flash the hammer and demand severe enforcements/fines/jail terms, and the likes if not a total lockdown due to the non-compliers. We're suffer all together.


They may not have the resources. If the public drops the ball on their social responsibilities, the health system can't do all the work to make up for the gap. Does the province have so much excess resources that they can handle it?

It's possible that the public health system (in this case for contact tracing) has been exhausted and overwhelmed by the extra work created by an irresponsible public, and anti-maskers. Perhaps they have calculated that this battle has been lost. Maybe there are simply too much exponential spread in Toronto for contact tracing to be feasible.

Maybe at a certain point of exponential spread, you just have to say: contact tracing is a lost cause.

In any case, if anti-maskers and irresponsible public keep spreading this, they are guaranteeing another severe lockdown and total halt to industry.


----------



## james4beach

CDC Acknowledges Coronavirus Can Spread Via Airborne Transmission


People with COVID-19 can infect others even if they are more than 6 feet apart. In updated guidance, the CDC acknowledges airborne transmission can occur, especially in poorly ventilated spaces.




www.npr.org





CDC spells out: COVID spreads via airborne transmission

​The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now says the coronavirus can be spread through airborne particles that can linger in the air "for minutes or even hours" — even among people who are more than 6 feet apart.​​
However the CDC also says this isn't very common. I think it's considered to be one of the less common ways that it's spread.

This means we must be even more careful about close contact with others, and shared air. Try to stay as far away from people as possible, because 6 feet might not be enough. Always wear a mask around other people, even if you can keep a distance.

For example if you're shopping in a store, it's not enough to just keep a distance from other people. You need a mask when you're in the same air space. Previously it was thought that keeping 6 feet distance indoors is safe enough, because that's about as far as droplets can go. But now we know that it's not just those big droplets that transmit it, but also very fine particles that linger in the air.


----------



## sags

Some geographical areas of Canada are slipping back to their worst levels of infection and hospitalizations since the virus started.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-october-6-report-1.5751877


----------



## nathan79

Unfortunately, it's not really practical to distance more than 6 feet in stores. It seems like the 6 foot distance was working perfectly well earlier this summer, when we had the daily count of new cases down in the single digits. Now we're seeing >100 new cases daily (BC), so one can only assume it's because people have started ignoring the 6 foot rule. Actually, I suspect that 90% of the new cases are coming from large, unregulated gatherings where people are ignoring the 6 foot distancing... and not from people who are actually following the 6 foot recommendation.


----------



## sags

We are getting near 800 cases a day in Ontario, and 74 of those were in schools.

Hospitlalizations are rising while 60% of the infections are in people under 50 years of age, so they aren't immune to serious symptoms.

The second wave is shaping up worse than the first wave. It looks to me like a return to full lock downs.

The scientists warned there would be a second wave that was worse and they were right.


----------



## andrewf

I think we will avoid full lock-down, but people need to become more conservative about the number of people they interact with, and some services may need to close (dine in restaurants, bars, etc).


----------



## calm

The scientists all said it would get worse when cold weather hit with lower humidity in the air.

Initially, we needed to rush out and find some hand sanitizers and hibernate.

Then it was your eyes needed to be covered.

It was explained that the virus attached itself to moisture in the air and we breathed the virus into our sinus passages.

And it has only been 9 months ..... with another 18 to go.

Maybe everybody got to buy a humidifier and add moisture to the air? Maybe the only safe place is the bathroom shower stall?

Maybe we could see different death rates across the country as temperatures cooled? Maybe a warm and dry piece of property at Death Valley becomes more valuable?


----------



## calm

Every kid in the world wants to know when it is safe to pick your nose again.


----------



## james4beach

The positivity rate is an important statistic to watch, especially the trend. This means: what % of the tests done come back positive?

This is more important than the total # of infected. The more you test, the more COVID cases you will find. But the % positive rate tells you how widespread the virus is. It's not a perfect measure, since it includes re-tests, but still useful - I think.

Apparently Toronto has really dropped the ball on this. There are a few pockets of Toronto with greater than 10% positive which is insanely high. Those areas have to be locked down aggressively ASAP.

BC is 1% positive, from what I can tell, and stable.
AB is 1.6% positive, and might be trending up, but a bit hard to tell.
*ON is 2% testing positive and definitely rising.
... with parts of Toronto that are extremely high
MB is 3% positive, and rising rather sharply - be careful folks!*


----------



## sags

Ontario is in a full COVID crisis. The hospitals are overflowing and people can't even get tested.

The Ford government is holding an emergency cabinet meeting to deal with the worsening situation.

They opened way too soon and now the catastrophe is here. There will be no acceptable excuses for Ford this time.


----------



## Money172375

Toronto, Peel, York and Ottawa To revert to a modified Stage 2. No more indoor dining, gyms, theatres, bars, conference centres, casinos.

premier says he didn’t sleep a wink last night. Seems genuinely conflicted and upset.

i don't think the measures are enough. I hope the restrictions are based on data......that they know these are the areas where the virus is spreading.


----------



## calm

I think that Rob Ford knew full well what was going to happen when opening up "socialization" areas and business. Just like he must of known what was going to happen when schools opened.

Rob Ford is being given top notch scientific briefings.

Rob Ford is spoon feeding the population in order to give people hope and confidence that he has things under control.
I have been suggesting that this is the case since June.
We are social animals and unable to socialize indoors.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> Toronto, Peel, York and Ottawa To revert to a modified Stage 2. No more indoor dining, gyms, theatres, bars, conference centres, casinos.


Thank god.

Ford seems sharp enough and he's taking this seriously so the "will" is there.

Hopefully as you say, they are targeting areas with active spread. The strategy should be to aggressively shut down / lock down highest spread areas. If that can't be contained, next you shut down the whole province.


----------



## sags

The Ford government is failing on handling the pandemic.

They didn't even know the rising statistics until the media reported them.

_An emergency room doctor says he thinks the premier of Ontario is getting “bad advice” as positivity rates for COVID-19 in some Toronto neighbourhoods begin to climb.

Dr. Kashif Pirzada made the comments Wednesday morning after a report by the Toronto Star found that four areas of Toronto are seeing positivity rates above 10 per cent and two-thirds of the city has a test positivity rate of higher than three per cent.

“I think maybe he's getting bad advice right now,” Pirzada told CTV News Your Morning. “Like I think maybe he didn't know until the press conference yesterday.” 

On Tuesday, Ontario’s Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe was asked about the report during an announcement at Queen’s Park and admitted that she hadn’t actually seen the data herself.

“I’ve read the article in the paper. That is very concerning,” she said._









ER doctor thinks Ontario premier is getting 'bad advice' on COVID-19


An emergency room doctor says he thinks the premier of Ontario is getting “bad advice” as positivity rates for COVID-19 in some Toronto neighbourhoods begin to climb.



toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## calm

+ More than a half-million sharks could be slaughtered to extract squalene from shark livers, an ingredient used in the manufacturing of COVID vaccines. 








500,000 Sharks Could Be Killed in the Race to Produce a Covid-19 Vaccine


Vaccine developers seek a compound called squalene produced in shark livers




www.smithsonianmag.com


----------



## Beaver101

I wonder if those scientists have yet looked into the use of bed bugs ...


----------



## sags

Republicans be like.........don't do as I do, or do as I say.........do as I say I do but don't.


----------



## james4beach

This article is really worth reading.









COVID-19 Is Now the Third Leading Cause of Death in the U.S.


It kills more people than the flu, contrary to Trump’s claims, and also surpasses stroke, Alzheimer’s and diabetes




www.scientificamerican.com





Note that COVID-19 is so significant in the US that it shows up in the overall death rate. Even if you don't believe the COVID label on a given death, you can look at the total number of people dropping dead in the US and see the spike on the long term graph. Clearly, COVID is killing a lot of people.

Let's all pray that we fare better than the USA.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> Let's all pray that we fare better than the USA.


The US has reported about 350k tests per 1M population while the Canada has reported about 210k tests per 1M.

The US has reported about 660 deaths per 1M population while the Canada has reported about 250 deaths per 1M.

Seems like COVID is killing twice as much in the US.

So far, I'd say that Saudi Arabia, Germany, Turkey, Poland and maybe Russia seems to be doing better than us. And Australia seems to be doing much better.

There are certainly other countries doing much much better than us like Japan and South Korea, but I just mentioned those who required about the same amount of testing. Japan and South Korea are such countries which are culturally more prepared to a pandemic.


----------



## like_to_retire

MrBlackhill said:


> Seems like COVID is killing twice as much in the US.


I doubt the virus knows the difference between an American and a Canadian, so my only guess on that situation is that Americans of all ages don't seem to be taking the virus seriously and so don't protect themselves, while in Canada that situation only seems to apply to young people, with older Canadians being quite diligent about protecting themselves. Since young people are less likely to die from COVID, then that could explain the difference in the country death rate?

ltr


----------



## MrBlackhill

like_to_retire said:


> I doubt the virus knows the difference between an American and a Canadian, so my only guess on that situation is that Americans of all ages don't seem to be taking the virus seriously and so don't protect themselves


Exactly.


----------



## Spudd

sags said:


> Ontario is in a full COVID crisis. The hospitals are overflowing and people can't even get tested.
> 
> The Ford government is holding an emergency cabinet meeting to deal with the worsening situation.
> 
> They opened way too soon and now the catastrophe is here. There will be no acceptable excuses for Ford this time.


Based on Ontario's COVID-19 info page there are 217 hospitalized cases now compared to a peak of around 1000 back in May. I don't think the hospitals are overflowing.

I do agree there seems to be a problem with test availability. They need to get that under control ASAP.


----------



## Beaver101

Spudd said:


> Based on Ontario's COVID-19 info page there are 217 hospitalized cases now compared to a peak of around 1000 back in May. I don't think the hospitals are overflowing.
> 
> I do agree there seems to be a problem with test availability. They need to get that under control ASAP.


 ... testing availability is only part of the solution.

No use to get positive tests numbers/stats, only to have the non-believers roaming around the city infecting everyone when they're supposed to be in quarantine or wearing masks or to follow public health guidelines/rules/law. 

One area that can make a significant difference IMO is lax enforcement - unbelieveably disappointing thus far.


----------



## andrewf

I have had what is probably bronchitis for a week and a bit now. Nearly impossible to book a test where I live.


----------



## andrewf

Spudd said:


> Based on Ontario's COVID-19 info page there are 217 hospitalized cases now compared to a peak of around 1000 back in May. I don't think the hospitals are overflowing.
> 
> I do agree there seems to be a problem with test availability. They need to get that under control ASAP.


From the same page, hospitalizations quadrupled in the past month. We can't afford for that to continue. I suspect winter might get pretty bad. At least the population has more of the tools to available to mitigate the spread. The challenge is snapping people out of their complacency and going back to the precautions we were taking earlier, like handwashing, maintaining distance, and avoiding extraneous social contact.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Did your doc recommend the test? If so, he/she can speed up the test arrangement.


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Seems like COVID is killing twice as much in the US.


Yeah, it's pretty bad. One metric I've been watching since the very start (March) is the ratio: Canada deaths per capita / US deaths per capita

For a while this ratio was stable around 0.55 but more recently it's dropped swiftly to 0.38 which is a big change.


----------



## Spudd

andrewf said:


> From the same page, hospitalizations quadrupled in the past month. We can't afford for that to continue. I suspect winter might get pretty bad. At least the population has more of the tools to available to mitigate the spread. The challenge is snapping people out of their complacency and going back to the precautions we were taking earlier, like handwashing, maintaining distance, and avoiding extraneous social contact.


Totally agree. I was just correcting Sags' notion that the hospitals are currently overflowing. They aren't.


----------



## Prairie Guy

like_to_retire said:


> I doubt the virus knows the difference between an American and a Canadian, so my only guess on that situation is that Americans of all ages don't seem to be taking the virus seriously and so don't protect themselves, while in Canada that situation only seems to apply to young people, with older Canadians being quite diligent about protecting themselves. Since young people are less likely to die from COVID, then that could explain the difference in the country death rate?
> 
> ltr


There have been several reports of some states padding the stats which increases federal funding. Even people killed in motorcycle crashes have been counted as Covid deaths. One governor (I forget who) publicly stated that if you have Covid when you die it's counted as a Covid death, even if you didn't die from it.


----------



## Prairie Guy

"The World Health Organisation has backflipped on its original COVID-19 stance after calling for world leaders to stop locking down their countries and economies.

Dr. David Nabarro from the WHO appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method” of the coronavirus.

And so, we really do appeal to all world leaders: stop using lockdown as your primary control method. Develop better systems for doing it. Work together and learn from each other."









WHO backflips on virus stance by condemning lockdowns


The World Health Organisation has backflipped on its original COVID-19 stance after calling for world leaders to stop locking down their countries and economies.




www.news.com.au


----------



## andrewf

WHO has been consistent on that point regarding lockdowns.

This doesn't mean they agree with conservatives that we should go on blissfully like before with no precautions, as demonstrated quite ably by the ACB nomination/super-spreader event where Trump and dozens of his associates were infected. No masks and no distancing to be seen there.


----------



## bgc_fan

Here's a nice graphic of the Swiss Cheese model for dealing with COVID. The idea is that no single method is 100% effective, you can only mitigate by using layers of protective measures.








The Swiss Cheese Model


Despite all our best intentions, accidents happen. Analysis of accidents in large complex systems such as power stations or plane crashes led to an understanding that "no one failure, human or technical, is sufficient to cause an accident. Rather, it involves the unlikely and often unforeseeable...




sketchplanations.com


----------



## sags

Spudd said:


> Totally agree. I was just correcting Sags' notion that the hospitals are currently overflowing. They aren't.


No.....hospitals in Ontario are overflowing.

If the hospitals are overflowing with 1000 cases or COVID or 217 cases of COVID is immaterial.

On a good day with no COVID patients, the hospitals are full and hallway medicine has become routine.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-experiencing-spike-in-new-covid-19-icu-admissions-not-seen-since-june-data-shows-1.5755925











Hospitals facing 'enormous pressure' as crowding leads to calls for stricter lockdown


Emergency physician and senior researcher Dr. Ian Stiell calls it the worst crowding he has seen in his 35 years at The Ottawa Hospital.




ottawacitizen.com


----------



## sags

andrewf said:


> I have had what is probably bronchitis for a week and a bit now. Nearly impossible to book a test where I live.


My doctor booked a chest xray and stomach scope 6 months ago and I just got a letter for a "telephone" consultation in January.

I am not sure how they do either of those tests over the phone, so I suspect it will be a "can you hang on until we get to you" type of call.

The hospitals have backed up surgeries and treatments for the next 6 months or more.

Ontario's health system was under strain before the COVID hit.

It is much worse now.


----------



## sags

From what I understand the "plan" is right now.........stay home unless you can't breathe.

If you show up at the hospital emergency room, you will wait for 10 hours and then they will send you home unless you are dying.


----------



## Money172375

I would have never felt that a global pandemic would look/feel this way. I guess I fell for the Hollywood versions, 

if you didn’t watch/surf the news, and stayed off social media...would you know anything was going on, I was driving through Toronto/Mississauga yesterday along the QEW...lots of cars (assuming they’re are going to family for Thanksgiving). And the shopping mall parking lots were full. Maybe that’s a good thing.....maybe it’s not.


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## Beaver101

‘Patient zero displayed no symptoms’: Hamilton’s SpinCo superspreader outbreak reaches 51 cases

For those who likes to play Russian roulette, here's your chance.


----------



## agent99

Money172375 said:


> if you didn’t watch/surf the news, and stayed off social media...would you know anything was going on,


This could be part of the problem, particularly with younger people. All some do, is text each other. No way they sit down and watch news on TV or listen to CBC. They hear about Covid by word of mouth and what they hear is not always accurate, but it gets repeated. 

Then there are others who maybe are not so young, who only read or watch US news from the likes of CNN and Fox - Those with closed minds perhaps only watch or read one of those. Then they repeat right or wrong to family/friends/kids who don't evaluate for themselves. Seems we see that going on even here.

Maybe we should have large electronic billboards in major cities and on busy highways with unbiased Covid rules, advice and current data? Need to do something to prevent the spread while keeping people working.


----------



## sags

The Ontario government needs to stratify their messaging and fix the nursing home and hospital care problems.

People are getting fed up and Ford's "deep concerns" don't cut it anymore.


----------



## sags

There is a real and grave danger that COVID will overpower our healthcare system in Ontario.

Ontario's nursing home problems have been well documented for years, and the latest reports show nothing has changed.

Ontario's hospitals are at over 100% capacity all the time, without additional COVID and seasonal flu cases.

The wait time to move a patient from the ER to a room often extends into days, while they lay on a gurney in a closet or supply room.

Year long waits for needed diagnostic testing and surgeries are not acceptable, and yet the Ford government was looking to cut funding further.

We need more hospitals, more doctors, more nurses, more equipment..........not less. The population is increasing and aging.

In other news.....it looks like the Conservative government in Alberta is practicing the same bad policies. They are cutting funding to healthcare too.

Cut funding to healthcare while giving billions to oil companies and pipelines that will never be built ?



https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/longform/confidential-alberta-health-services-document-reveals-massive-proposed-health-care-system-restructuring


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## OptsyEagle

agent99 said:


> This could be part of the problem, particularly with younger people. All some do, is text each other. No way they sit down and watch news on TV or listen to CBC. They hear about Covid by word of mouth and what they hear is not always accurate, but it gets repeated.
> 
> Then there are others who maybe are not so young, who only read or watch US news from the likes of CNN and Fox - Those with closed minds perhaps only watch or read one of those. Then they repeat right or wrong to family/friends/kids who don't evaluate for themselves. Seems we see that going on even here.
> 
> Maybe we should have large electronic billboards in major cities and on busy highways with unbiased Covid rules, advice and current data? Need to do something to prevent the spread while keeping people working.


This is not just a problem with younger people. Obviously when you see a person, older then 60, slightly overweight, etc., and not social distancing/wearing masks, you are dealing with someone who obviously does not understand what is actually happening. Think about that for a moment. There is really no other excuse, then ignorance or some kind of stupid emotion like bravery or some other nonsense, that is making them think this way. Why they possess this ignorance I cannot say, but obviously they do.

The young person age 30 however, could be completely up to speed with this issue, have a PhD in microbiology and if they made their decision that Covid-19 was not a problem, I might have a much harder time arguing against them. In their personal case, getting infected with Covid-19 is not their biggest problem. Most of them would probably agree that their bigger problem is what we are currently doing about Covid-19, not the virus itself.


----------



## sags

Younger adults might want to take a look beyond COVID deaths into the long lasting symptoms that many of their peers are suffering after contracting the virus.

The latest documented symptom is a total loss of hearing. We already know about organ and respiractory damage long term.

Risking a lifetime with those ailments for a night out with friends, looks like a bargain with the devil to me.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> Younger adults might want to take a look beyond COVID deaths into the long lasting symptoms that many of their peers are suffering after contracting the virus.
> 
> The latest documented symptom is a total loss of hearing. We already know about organ and respiractory damage long term.
> 
> Risking a lifetime with those ailments for a night out with friends, looks like a bargain with the devil to me.


I keep hearing anecdotal stories about multiple long term problems but they all seem to be unverified. I can't believe that there are hundreds or thousands of young people with long term health problems and it's not being reported by the fear mongering media daily.


----------



## andrewf

COVID-19 (coronavirus): Long-term effects


Learn about the long-term effects of COVID-19 on the lungs, brain and nervous system.




www.mayoclinic.org




.









COVID-19 and Your Health


Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.




www.cdc.gov






> The risk of heart damage may not be limited to older and middle-aged adults. For example, young adults with COVID-19, including athletes, can also suffer from myocarditis. Severe heart damage has occurred in young, healthy people, but is rare. There may be more cases of mild effects of COVID-19 on the heart that can be diagnosed with special imaging tests, including in younger people with mild or minimal symptoms; however, the long-term significance of these mild effects on the heart are unknown. CDC will continue to assess and provide updates as new data emerge.





https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/risk-comms-updates/update-36-long-term-symptoms.pdf?sfvrsn=5d3789a6_2




> • In a telephone survey of symptomatic adults who had a positive outpatient test result for SARS-CoV-2, 35% had not returned to their usual state of health when interviewed 2–3 weeks after testing.1
> • Among those 18 to 34 years in good health, 20% (1 in 5) reported that some symptoms were prolonged.
> 
> [...]
> Body systems and organs that can be affected :
> • Heart
>  Damage to heart muscle, heart failure
> • Lungs
>  Damage to lung tissue and restrictive lung failure
> • Brain and the nervous system
>  Loss of sense of smell (anosmia)
>  Consequences of thrombo-embolic events such as pulmonary embolism, heart attack, stroke
>  Cognitive impairment (e.g. memory and concentration)
> • Mental health
>  Anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder and sleep disturbance
> • Musculoskeletal and others
>  Pain in join and muscles
>  Fatigue


So, COVID-19 may contribute to early disability and death even for people who do not die immediately from the infection.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Prairie Guy said:


> I keep hearing anecdotal stories about multiple long term problems but they all seem to be unverified. I can't believe that there are hundreds or thousands of young people with long term health problems and it's not being reported by the fear mongering media daily.


I tend to agree. One of the biggest problems we have with this particular Corona virus is the large disparity between how it affects the old compared to how it affects the young. As always, there will be exceptions but I think we all know who is at grave risk and who really is not at risk at all.

If this thing keeps going on, well beyond next summer for example, there is no doubt in my mind that the governments are going to have to come up with some form of age discriminatory rules to address both groups more fairly. People being put under different restrictions depending on their age. I would add health status as well, but that is more difficult to verify then age.

So in other words, people between 18 and 40 will be able to pretty much go on with their life. Pack the bars and restaurants all you want because people age 41 to forever are not allowed in. Everyone wears masks in retail stores OR we come up with some way to have one group go in one day and the other group go in the other. I have not figured this one out yet since my biggest obstacle is what to do with the elder generations that need help taking care of themselves. They are a more difficult row to hoe.

Disclosure: I am 56


----------



## agent99

OptsyEagle said:


> ... when you see a person, older then 60, slightly overweight, etc., and not social distancing/wearing masks, you are dealing with someone who obviously does not understand what is actually happening. Think about that for a moment. There is really no other excuse, then ignorance or some kind of stupid emotion like bravery or some other nonsense, that is making them think this way. Why they possess this ignorance I cannot say, but obviously they do.


CNN interviewed some of those attending Trumps rally in Florida. No masks, no social distancing. Asked them some questions. One though masks were a danger to our health - something about restricting breathings or ????. Another lady fely she kept herself heathy and saw no reason why she would get the Covid. And if she did, it was the will of God. One when asked if she would wear a mask if Trump said she should - she was quick to say YES??? 

These were people that looked just like you average American (or Canadian) . It is hard to understand. The whole thing has been politicized in the USA and even here in Canada (including on this forum) These are not basically ignorant people, but it seems they have become so so far as the panademic is concerned.


----------



## Prairie Guy

andrewf said:


> So, COVID-19 may contribute to early disability and death even for people who do not die immediately from the infection.


"may", "can also". Plus "severe heart damage has occurred in young, healthy people, but is rare." So anything that has happened that is confirmed is rare.

That's basically what I said. We're not hearing about hundreds or thousands of cases of young people with long term health issues. All we have heard is "may" or "can happen", and in the event of something actually happening is it "rare".


----------



## andrewf

Well, given that these things are rare in young people anyway, it would be significantly increased risk (ie, doubling risk, etc.). Each person can make their own determination. You skipped the part where 20% of 18-35 outpatient COVID cases had lingering health issues. That is not a small number.


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## Money172375

One of my neighbours was a life long nurse. Now retired. She asked if it was ok for her to remove her mask while we were indoors together. She claimed ”it‘s all a hoax”


----------



## Beaver101

^ So was it a Yes or a No for her to remove her mask whilst indoors with ya? 

Of course, she claims it's a hoax as she's retired. And her new friends ain't nurses either.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The Ontario government needs to stratify their messaging and fix the nursing home and hospital care problems.
> 
> People are getting fed up and Ford's "deep concerns" don't cut it anymore.


 ... I think the minister & administration et al in charge of that portfolio should be fired first ... the $$$ saved can go towards fixing LTC, nursing homes and hospital care.


----------



## Beaver101

agent99 said:


> CNN ... And if she did, it was the will of God. One when asked if she would wear a mask if Trump said she should - she was quick to say YES???
> 
> These were people that looked just like you average American (or Canadian) . It is hard to understand. The whole thing has been politicized in the USA and even here in Canada (including on this forum) *These are not basically ignorant people, *but it seems they have become so so far as the panademic is concerned.


 ... nope, but superiorly arrogant.


----------



## Synergy

agent99 said:


> CNN interviewed some of those attending Trumps rally in Florida. No masks, no social distancing. Asked them some questions. One though masks were a danger to our health - something about restricting breathings or ????.


There are no alternatives at this point but masks do put the user at increased risk. What is one of the number one public health recommendations - wash your hands. And what do mask wearers do all day long with their dirty hands - touch their mask, re-adjust the fit, place the mask in their dirty pocket, armrest of their car, etc. In perfect world you would only touch your mask with sterile hands, place it on a sterile surface, etc. This is not happening. The general public are touching their faces more than ever. People are re-using disposable masks for weeks on end, not washing their cloth masks regularly, etc. 

Not wearing a masks is not an alternative as it puts us in a much worse position.


----------



## agent99

Synergy said:


> There are no alternatives at this point but masks do put the user at increased risk. ot washing their cloth masks regularly, etc.
> 
> Not wearing a masks is not an alternative as it puts us in a much worse position.


I agree, but really the reason for washing hands, is so that you don't transfer the virus from something you touched, like a doorknob or whatever to your mouth or eyes. If you touch the outside of mask, not as much of a problem. I agree, that masks do give us a false sense of security, but it does seem that overall they do help a lot.


----------



## james4beach

Manitoba, particularly Winnipeg's, numbers are getting really bad.

Winnipeg's positive test rate is now 4.4%, a new high. This is a leading (or at least 'real time') indicator and shows the current trajectory. The virus is currently spreading among the community at levels that Winnipeg (and MB) has never seen before.

A man in his 40s with no underlying health conditions has died of COVID.

Manitoba was doing extremely well ever since the start of COVID and had virtually nil cases until August. Then the situation rapidly changed in Aug/Sep/Oct. Why? I don't know... something obviously changed.


----------



## calm

I think there is going to be huge demands for social workers. My daughter is getting her BA in that field.

The lifestyle changes caused by Covid-19 are causing huge mental strains and marital strains as well.
Governments are going to pay young people to stay in Zoom School and off the streets.

This winter could mean horrific infections and diets will change. No fresh vegetables or fruit. People are going to hibernate.

You might want to include a board game for the kids when ordering your groceries and Grub Hub.

In the U.S. they offered 7 bucks a day to everybody and called it the best they can do.

And the stress rises ....


----------



## james4beach

calm said:


> This winter could mean horrific infections and diets will change. No fresh vegetables or fruit. People are going to hibernate.


Why would there be no fruits or vegetables this winter?


----------



## calm

People are going to cut back on trips to the store as the infections rise.
Less fresh produce and fruit being sold.
Lots of frozen stuff instead.

The most secure or safe place to live will be near a bakery because a military unit will be parked on site.


----------



## Synergy

agent99 said:


> I agree, but really the reason for washing hands, is so that you don't transfer the virus from something you touched, like a doorknob or whatever to your mouth or eyes. If you touch the outside of mask, not as much of a problem. I agree, that masks do give us a false sense of security, but it does seem that overall they do help a lot.


Not a good idea to touch the outside of your mask or allow the outside of the mask to touch non-sterile surfaces. This can result in self contamination. It's a huge issue as more and more people are taking their masks on and off numerous times per day. I'm just hoping that the benefits outweigh the risk.


----------



## Beaver101

Some Toronto, Peel residents appear to be crossing regional COVID-19 boundaries for exercise

Are these people for real? Drive (bike, walk, rollerblade, crawl?) from TO or Peel to go to Milton and line up for a workout? ....LOL.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> Some Toronto, Peel residents appear to be crossing regional COVID-19 boundaries for exercise
> 
> Are these people for real? Drive (bike, walk, rollerblade, crawl?) from TO or Peel to go to Milton and line up for a workout? ....LOL.


Parts of Toronto have more than 10% positivity rate, the highest rates of infection in the country. If young people are indeed going to gyms in neighbouring areas, they are going to spread this like wildfire.

Young people doing these things are going to force the government to do a complete lock-down.


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> Parts of Toronto have more than 10% positivity rate, the highest rates of infection in the country. If young people are indeed going to gyms in neighbouring areas, they are going to spread this like wildfire.
> 
> Young people doing these things are going to force the government to do a complete lock-down.


I feel that is inevitable. I just saw Italy had its highest daily count ever, and I suspect their restrictions are stricter than ours. This virus is relentless.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> Parts of Toronto have more than 10% positivity rate, the highest rates of infection in the country. If young people are indeed going to gyms in neighbouring areas, they are going to spread this like wildfire.
> 
> Young *people doing these things are going to force the government to do a complete lock-down.*


 ... and so be it and the suffering continues for thyself /themselves. Cannot change these people (selfish, ignorant, arrogant, fill-in-the-blank, etc.) who* cannot be helped*. Just hope the Ford government ramp up the (legal) enforcements.

Here's another (latest) example of is this for real or what? These people are nothing but short of being malicious:

Woman charged for breaking Quarantine Act



> OTTAWA - An Ontario woman has been charged with breaching federal quarantine rules *after allegedly returning to work in a long-term care facility soon after travelling abroad.*
> 
> Ottawa police say a complaint received Oct. 2 alleged the woman had returned to Canada on Sept. 26.
> 
> *They allege she was required under the Quarantine Act to quarantine until Oct. 9 but returned to work on Sept. 30 at a long-term care facility in Ottawa.*
> 
> Police say management sent the employee home and cleaned the facility after learning of the situation, and no residents have tested positive for COVID-19.
> 
> *The 53-year-old woman has since been charged with failing to comply with the 14-day isolation condition of the Quarantine Act, and with causing risk of imminent death or serious bodily harm under the act.*
> 
> She has a court appearance scheduled for Nov. 24.
> 
> This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 15, 2020.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... and so be it and the suffering continues for thyself /themselves. Cannot change these people (selfish, ignorant, arrogant, fill-in-the-blank, etc.) who* cannot be helped*. Just hope the Ford government ramp up the (legal) enforcements.
> 
> Here's another (latest) example of is this for real or what? These people are nothing but short of being malicious:
> 
> Woman charged for breaking Quarantine Act


I wouldn't say that it is necessarily malicious, not knowing her exact motivations. Maybe she felt that she had to go into work because they were short staffed and thought that she was low risk of being infected. That being said, it wasn't the smartest idea and now there's the extra expense of cleaning the facilities and possibly testing/monitoring residents.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> I wouldn't say that it is necessarily malicious, not knowing her exact motivations. Maybe she felt that she had to go into work because they were short staffed and thought that she was low risk of being infected. That being said, it wasn't the smartest idea and now there's the extra expense of cleaning the facilities and possibly testing/monitoring residents.


 ... it would be hard to believe what her motivations would be less than malicious given that 1. she works in a "LTC" facility that have a record of deaths or the highest risk for that, 2. not her concern if the facility is short of staff as she could have called in management to determine her job attendance, and 3. how does she know she's of "low" risk, not to her selfish-self but to "others"? Was she hiding under a rock at the LTC? ... the pandemic has been raging for about 10 months and still on.

Moreover, I don't suppose she has been willy-nilly "charged" under the Quarantine Act? 

Here's another one (latest):

Lindsay resident charged with breaking quarantine act after returning to Canada from foreign country


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> ... and so be it and the suffering continues for thyself /themselves. Cannot change these people (selfish, ignorant, arrogant, fill-in-the-blank, etc.) who* cannot be helped*. Just hope the Ford government ramp up the (legal) enforcements.
> 
> Here's another (latest) example of is this for real or what? These people are nothing but short of being malicious:
> 
> Woman charged for breaking Quarantine Act


 .. this incident reminds me of this dedicated employee who writes/wrote? for the TO Star early on in the pandemic:

*Why I won’t stay at home when I’m sick*



> ...I don’t generally get worried about new infectious diseases, and COVID-19 is no exception. Being one of the fortunate few who is both healthy and resident in a wealthy country with an advanced and accessible medical system, I can afford not to panic.
> 
> New viruses, I reason, are like being hit by a truck or punched in the face: they will happen in this wide chaotic world of ours from time to time, and beyond a few basic precautions there is little I personally can do to stop them.
> 
> Of course I do the little that is within my power — for my own good and that of the community in which I live. I cover my mouth when I cough and I regularly wash and sanitize my hands.
> 
> What I don’t — *and won’t —* *do is stay home from work when I’m sick. *This isn’t because I’m ignorant or uncaring about others; it’s because, like a great many people in this country, I just can’t afford it.
> 
> People in more privileged economic positions — including, I’m assuming, those responsible for telling the rest of us to stay home from work when we’re sick — don’t seem to truly understand what this means, so allow me to explain.
> 
> If I don’t go to work, even for one hour, I don’t get paid.* At one of my jobs (like many people in this economy, I have several) my weekly pay is contingent on me showing up to deliver a class in-person. *This means that if I cancel class one week because I am sick, I get no pay for that week — even if I spend the rest of the same week grading papers and responding to student emails from home. ...


 ... I guess the almighty dollar trumps her life and others. She better put in more hours to pay that fine.


----------



## cainvest

Some not good news for those going to Costco .... Costco workers quit in protest

Actually, I'm not surprised by this news. Last few times I was in that store (before masks were required) they were very lax about 2m spacing. They even had side by side checkouts with less than 1m spacing between customers open when other checkouts with more than 2m spacing were kept closed.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... it would be hard to believe what her motivations would be less than malicious given that 1. she works in a "LTC" facility that have a record of deaths or the highest risk for that, 2. not her concern if the facility is short of staff as she could have called in management to determine her job attendance, and 3. how does she know she's of "low" risk, not to her selfish-self but to "others"? Was she hiding under a rock at the LTC? ... the pandemic has been raging for about 10 months and still on.
> 
> Moreover, I don't suppose she has been willy-nilly "charged" under the Quarantine Act?


I think there's a big difference between malicious intent and just being stupid. I doubt she was thinking that she was going to deliberately try to infect residents or other workers. It could be that in her mind, because she is wearing PPE at work (I'm assuming that must be the policy), there is going to be a low likelihood of transmission considering that she doesn't have any symptoms. There aren't many details in the article and the fact that she was scheduled to work without accounting for quarantine does mean that she intended to go to work regardless. Remember that there are lots of nurses and doctors who think that this COVID situation is exaggerated, and she could be one of them even though she is working in the LTC.

No, she breached the Quarantine Act so she should be charged, I'm not disputing that. I'm just disputing that she was being malicious about it. Remember there are a lot of clueless people out there. Remember Hanlon's razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.


----------



## calm

I went for groceries yesterday and grabbed enough to get me past New Years at least. Milk and bread I can get at Shoppers Drug.
I am ready to hibernate.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> I think there's a big difference between malicious intent and just being stupid. I doubt she was thinking that she was going to deliberately try to infect residents or other workers. It could be that in her mind, because she is wearing PPE at work (I'm assuming that must be the policy), there is going to be a low likelihood of transmission considering that she doesn't have any symptoms. There aren't many details in the article and the fact that she was scheduled to work without accounting for quarantine does mean that she intended to go to work regardless. *Remember that there are lots of nurses and doctors who think that this COVID situation is exaggerated, and she could be one of them even though she is working in the LTC.*


 ... that is an interesting revelation.

Just how do you know there're "lots" of "nurses & doctors" who think the COVID situation is "exaggerated"? That's like saying Covid19 is not a novel disease, it's just a flu. Hopefully these kind of nurses & doctors don't have to work in LTC, nursing home, and the likes. And that they make sure their patients don't die (or maybe they hope they do?) before themselves catching it. Better yet, don't bother with gearing up on the PPEs and pass it onto others who think this pandemic is very seriously unexaggerated.



> No, she breached the Quarantine Act so she should be charged, I'm not disputing that. I'm just disputing that she was being malicious about it. Remember there are a lot of clueless people out there. Remember Hanlon's razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.


 ... okay, maybe it was unintentional maliciousness but calling her as being clueless, stupid (or call it what you want) in this case equates to "excuses" IMO.


----------



## :) lonewolf

bgc_fan said:


> No, she breached the Quarantine Act so she should be charged, I'm not disputing that. I'm just disputing that she was being malicious about it. Remember there are a lot of clueless people out there. Remember Hanlon's razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.


The lady should be given a medal for not being a sheep. Those enforcing the quarantine should be tried for crimes against humanity. How dumb can the herd be wanting to quarantine the healthy for a virus so weak most people do not even know they have it? It was not that long ago there were witch hunters that burned people @ the stake. Man's nature has not changed. The modern day Witch hunters are gang stalkers pretending to keep us safe AKA as contract tracers


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> Some not good news for those going to Costco .... Costco workers quit in protest
> 
> Actually, I'm not surprised by this news. Last few times I was in that store (before masks were required) they were very lax about 2m spacing. They even had side by side checkouts with less than 1m spacing between customers open when other checkouts with more than 2m spacing were kept closed.


Interesting, thanks for sharing.

People often forget about the health and safety of the workers in these stores. A big reason to wear masks is to keep those employees safe! Sure, for us customers we are going in & out pretty quick and maybe not exposed to much. But an employee in the store is exposed all day long to everyone's breath... this cumulative exposure is far more dangerous.


----------



## :) lonewolf

james4beach said:


> Interesting, thanks for sharing.
> 
> People often forget about the health and safety of the workers in these stores. A big reason to wear masks is to keep those employees safe! Sure, for us customers we are going in & out pretty quick and maybe not exposed to much. But an employee in the store is exposed all day long to everyone's breath... this cumulative exposure is far more dangerous.


 I know workers that have quit for having to wear masks.


----------



## Beaver101

:) lonewolf said:


> *The lady should be given a medal for not being a sheep. Those enforcing the quarantine should be tried for crimes against humanity.* How dumb can the herd be wanting to quarantine the healthy for a virus so weak most people do not even know they have it? It was not that long ago there were witch hunters that burned people @ the stake. Man's nature has not changed. The modern day Witch hunters are gang stalkers pretending to keep us safe AKA as contract tracers


 ...  to your post and tell that to the dedicated life-saving nurses & oath-sworned doctors (which are not the kind bgc mentioned in his post #2993):

Five days of the second wave: An inside look at Toronto hospitals’ fall offensive against COVID-19


----------



## Beaver101

:) lonewolf said:


> I know workers that have quit for having to wear masks.


 ... their prerogative ... just keep the germs to themselves when in a store or on a transit. Please tell these workers you know of to stay at least 6 feet away from those with masks on.


----------



## sags

Before Ontario mandated masks in stores, there were people wandering around without a mask muttering away and bugging people wearing a mask.

I saw it a couple of times, and it ended when masks were mandated. Now the store or other customers can tell the person to toddle off somewhere else.


----------



## andrewf

There was a video of a guy going on a racist tirade at a T&T grocery store after being asked to wear a mask or leave. Also saw a video of a guy (apparently recorded by his friend--so maybe a screw loose or attention seeker) who went into a Niagara Falls Shoppers Drug Mart and started to rip up the floor markings and signs while shouting. Manager had to close the store and call the police (the guy seemed a bit unhinged and potentially violent).


----------



## calm

When you see those Folks at a Trump rally and with their hands in the air, that is what evangelical Christians do when in church "Witnessing".

I once knew a born-again Christian who threw away her valuables because God told her to. She felt that if she did not throw them away, then she was mocking God and showing mistrust of his preaching.

If these Christians put on a mask they would be showing a mistrust of the messiah named Trump.

Many American presidents have claimed that they have talked to God. George W. Bush even claimed that God answered him. Trump has acted like a messiah since being elected.


----------



## :) lonewolf

Beaver101 said:


> ...  to your post and tell that to the dedicated life-saving nurses & oath-sworned doctors (which are not the kind bgc mentioned in his post #2993):


1,000+ Doctors Come out Against COVID | Armstrong Economics


----------



## Beaver101

Influencer Dmitriy Stuzhuk dies from COVID-19 after denying its existence


----------



## Spudd

:) lonewolf said:


> 1,000+ Doctors Come out Against COVID | Armstrong Economics


Not surprising, one would expect most doctors to be against COVID.


----------



## :) lonewolf

Spudd said:


> Not surprising, one would expect most doctors to be against COVID.


 If you watch the video they are against wearing masks as well as the Covid scandal


----------



## james4beach

calm said:


> When you see those Folks at a Trump rally and with their hands in the air, that is what evangelical Christians do when in church "Witnessing".
> 
> I once knew a born-again Christian who threw away her valuables because God told her to. She felt that if she did not throw them away, then she was mocking God and showing mistrust of his preaching.
> 
> If these Christians put on a mask they would be showing a mistrust of the messiah named Trump.
> 
> Many American presidents have claimed that they have talked to God. George W. Bush even claimed that God answered him. Trump has acted like a messiah since being elected.


There's definitely a connection between religious fundamentalism and this anti-mask lunacy. It might have to do with rejection of science (and medicine).

For example, look at the Toronto anti-mask video footage that lonewolf posted. There are religious signs and banners all over the place. I didn't watch the whole video but it didn't take me long to see the name of an evangelical church:









Freedom protests in Toronto Mainstream media does not cover


Freedom Protest in Toronto | Armstrong Economics The people are waking up to the fact that they have been lied to. My bet the mainstream media will not cover the rally instead they will push for lockdowns & masks




www.canadianmoneyforum.com


----------



## Prairie Guy

james4beach said:


> There's definitely a connection between religious fundamentalism and this anti-mask lunacy. It might have to do with rejection of science (and medicine).


Just like the climate debate..."the science is settled" we were told. That's a direct rejection of science and yet you support that lie 100%.


----------



## calm

While people are arguing about wearing a mask, China is overtaking America on the world stage. 

They wear masks in China.

China grows nearly 5%; Will historians look back at Trump’s disastrous Pandemic Response as the Moment Beijing Overtook the US?
Laura He at CNN Business reports that China’s gross domestic product grew 4.9% in the third quarter, July-September, over one year ago.
Its industrial production actually grew 5.8 percent year on year, improving on the second quarter’s 4.4 percent growth. Consumers are buying again, with auto sales surging over 12% (Ford China did 25%!). 

.... there is serious danger of China leaving the US in the dust. It will have had three years of solid growth by the time the US gets a handle on a pandemic that is more or less over with, for now, in China.

Up until last week, China had gone two months without reporting any new coronavirus cases. None. That’s mid-August until mid-October! Then last week they had 12 cases in the eastern Yellow Sea port of Qingdao in Shandong province and they went medieval on it, testing ten million people in the city and its environs. Qingdao has a population of 5.6 million, with 9 million in the metropolitan region. 

Qingdao, by the way, has a GDP of $266 bn per year, equal to the whole GDP of the country of Portugal.

It is on par with Minneapolis-St. Paul. And it is just a second-tier Chinese city, the 16th most populous. It is more populous than Los Angeles, the second biggest US city after New York City.

The US only ships 1.4 million tests a day and in some recent days has had nearly 70,000 cases, returning to the levels of the summer spike.
By Juan Cole
October 19, 2020








China grows nearly 5%; Will historians look back at Trump's disastrous Pandemic Response as the Moment Beijing Overtook the US?


Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) - Even if Trump loses, he can go on screwing up the country for two and a half months thereafter, and it will take years to undo the damage he has done. Pandemics are the sort of thing you want to nip in the bud. If you let them go to national community spread, they...




www.juancole.com


----------



## sags

My wife still has to wear a mask for the full 8 hour shifts. They had to fight to get 2 masks a shift so they could switch at lunch. 

I have no sympathy for the anti-maskers who can't put them on for a 30 minute shopping trip.


----------



## sags

China had total lock downs. People who didn't wear masks or quarantine were dragged off to parts unknown.

They just posted a 4.9% increase in their GDP. The media didn't cover it because Trump deflected from the story by feeding them more looney tunes.

Scientists and doctors are now calling the US situation....."grim, catastrophic, critical, apocalyptic"..

Over 50% of infections are with people who didn't know how they could have contracted the virus. The virus is deeply imbedded in the population now.

In Canada, the COVID infections are rising. The western Provinces who stayed open are experiencing an explosion of infections.

In Ontario and Quebec, where restrictions were relaxed, the virus count is climbing again to record levels.

As one exasperated US Governor said......_this virus can quickly overrun our healthcare capacity to deal with it._

Maybe the Chinese know more about handling a deadly pandemic and reopening an economy than we do ?









China's economic recovery gains even more momentum


China's economy is picking up steam as the country continues to dig its way out of the turmoil caused by the coronavirus pandemic.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> My wife still has to wear a mask for the full 8 hour shifts. They had to fight to get 2 masks a shift so they could switch at lunch.
> 
> I have no sympathy for the anti-maskers who can't put them on for a 30 minute shopping trip.


 ... anti-maskers think they'll either die the minute they put a mask on, or they're selfishly immune.


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> Maybe the Chinese know more about handling a deadly pandemic and reopening an economy than we do ?


I guess we are slow learners. I posted this 6 months ago:









Use of Masks.


This is a very interesting interview with George Gao, director-general of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (PhD from Oxford!) Not wearing masks to protect against coronavirus is a ‘big mistake,’ top Chinese scientist says Not just about masks, but about how the...




www.canadianmoneyforum.com





and now this:








China's Covid success compared to Europe shows lockdowns are the first step, not a solution | CNN


As much of Europe stares down the barrel of renewed coronavirus lockdowns, and a potentially miserable -- and deadly -- winter to come, China is going from strength to strength.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Prairie Guy

So...we are to believe what comes out of communist China now because CNN gushes about them?


----------



## sags

Trump likes China. He paid more tax to the Chinese government than the American government. He also has a secret bank account there.


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> Trump likes China. He paid more tax to the Chinese government than the American government. He also has a secret bank account there.


Thanks for posting all that CNN news. Rest of us no longer have to go read it for ourselves


----------



## Spudd

I hate when people post things on message boards saying "the media doesn't cover it". In this case Sags even posted a CNN link to the very story he said wasn't being covered!

In 99% of these cases they found out the story because the media covered it. I see it much more from the right-wing as complaints but apparently the left-wing have caught on too. 

If you are ever tempted to post "the media isn't covering this" please google it first and click on the "news" section. If you don't see it there, go ahead and post it. If you do, then the media _is_ covering it. 

There's my rant for today.


----------



## Eder

On a related note In what appears to be the worst news yet concerning any of the leading COVID-19 vaccine candidates, a patient enrolled in the trial for AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine candidate (which it's working on with Oxford) has died.



but


*Update (1340ET): *AZ has just revealed that the patient who died received a placebo, not the actual vaccine.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> Influencer Dmitriy Stuzhuk dies from COVID-19 after denying its existence


Here were the comments posted by the dying 33 year old man:


"I was one who thought that Covid does not exist...until I got sick.
"COVID-19 IS NOT A SHORT-LIVED DISEASE! And it is heavy."​
The health-conscious 33 year old died of heart complications resulting from the viral infection.

You do not want to catch this disease. Doesn't matter how young you are, how healthy you are. And remember, even if you get lucky and don't fall ill from it, you might be passing it on to another person who does get very sick.

BC reported a record high number of cases today. They say that many of the new cases are traced to weddings and funerals.


----------



## sags

Spudd said:


> I hate when people post things on message boards saying "the media doesn't cover it". In this case Sags even posted a CNN link to the very story he said wasn't being covered!
> 
> In 99% of these cases they found out the story because the media covered it. I see it much more from the right-wing as complaints but apparently the left-wing have caught on too.
> 
> If you are ever tempted to post "the media isn't covering this" please google it first and click on the "news" section. If you don't see it there, go ahead and post it. If you do, then the media _is_ covering it.
> 
> There's my rant for today.


The link is actually to a CNN Business News story. It isn't likely I would find it by clicking on "news".


----------



## Money172375

Another record day in BC and recent records in Ontario. Ontario has moved hot spots back to a modified stage 2....but it appears to be not enough for me. I for one, am seeking tougher restrictions. 

do the experts really have a handle on how and where this is spreading? The hot spots in Ontario have banned indoor dining, gyms. I wonder if limiting the number of people in other retail might help. The days of returning To indoor “office work” seem a long way off!

hearing a lot more about positivity rates.....is that the new important metric.....I guess The experts are feeling ok about hospitalizations and ICU admissions. 

sigh......

what’s history say.....repeated smaller waves.....larger waves?


----------



## Spudd

sags said:


> The link is actually to a CNN Business News story. It isn't likely I would find it by clicking on "news".


I disagree.


https://news.google.com/search?q=china%20economy&hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen


----------



## Money172375

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/south-dakota/articles/2020-10-11/south-dakota-sees-38-positivity-rate-in-daily-virus-tests



38% positivity rate in South Dakota. Case numbers are looking very bad in most of the US.


----------



## calm

I just watched "Totally Under Control" by Alex Gibney at Prime Video.
It is very odd to watch happenings since January this year with Covid-19 and realize how incompetent governments were.
And how corporations swooped in to grab money.
It is shocking to watch the past year in review.


----------



## bgc_fan

A couple of interesting stories:
1. Russian professor was infected twice: first time no serious symptoms, second time was done purposefully 6 months later and it was much more serious








Russian professor twice infects himself with COVID-19, says herd immunity won't save us


The first time Chepurnov caught the virus, he recovered without hospitalization. The second time, however was much more serious




nationalpost.com




2. New strain that started Europe's second wave








Mutant COVID-19 strain in Spanish farm workers sparked Europe's second wave: scientists


An international team of scientists that has been tracking the virus through its genetic mutations has described the extraordinary spread of the variant,…




nationalpost.com


----------



## andrewf

That first one is pretty concerning. So much for herd immunity.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> That first one is pretty concerning. So much for herd immunity.


Yikes. He had nothing the first time round, and on the second one, a high fever + pneumonia.

Nevertheless, I'm confident that treatment methods will continue to improve. Already, treatment procedures are much better than in March and it's only been 7 months. We shouldn't lose sight of some of the very positive developments including big improvements in hospital procedures + treatment methods.


----------



## like_to_retire

james4beach said:


> Already, treatment procedures are much better than in March and it's only been 7 months. We shouldn't lose sight of some of the very positive developments including big improvements in hospital procedures + treatment methods.


For sure. If you look at those disturbing graphs of the 1st wave and the much higher 2nd wave that they continue to publish every day of the total cases logged, and then overlay the graph of hospitalized and in-ICU cases, it's night and day. They've learned how to treat people and keep them out of the ICU. Isn't that an indicator that we should perhaps open the economy, since we have some pretty good methods of treatment now?

ltr


----------



## sags

The only number that matters in hospitalizations is the actual number of people requiring treatment......not percentages of those infected.

Rising infections and a low rate of hospitalizations doesn't mean hospitals will be able to cope with the increased patient load.

The hospital resources are finite. ICU beds, doctors and nurses, lab techs, paramedics, medicine availability......become issues.

As we enter flu season, the numbers of people being admitted to hospital will increase. Seniors are a high risk of respiratory problems.

If we had unlimited hospital capacity, perhaps we could protect the most vulnerable and open up the economy. But that isn't the reality.

Small regional hospitals unable to cope with serious COVID patients transfer them to larger hospitals, where there are already occupancy overloads.


----------



## sags

US States are setting up field hospitals with tents. Others are experiencing staff shortages. This virus isn't getting any less dangerous.

I think total lock downs are inevitable at some point. The politicians will delay as long as they can, but the virus is spreading too fast to ignore much longer.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the government will support Canadians for as long as it takes, regardless of the cost. They know what is coming.


----------



## calm

sags said:


> I think total lock downs are inevitable at some point.


I think that Total Lockdown like last spring is not probable.
The politicians need to leave some hope and encouragement on the table.
Christmas and new years are on the horizon which is major economic activity.
I think Trudeau will need to flood the economy with money prior to Christmas to prevent huge social damage and mental stress. There is already a shortage of social workers.


----------



## Money172375

I recall Europe going through wave 1 before North America. They seem to be returning to lockdowns now.....so if like the spring, we’re a few months behind, then further lockdowns are inevitable.

that Being said, even though we saw record number of daily cases in Ontario recently, the premier says we’ve avoided the worst-case scenario and things should be getting better shortly. They had worst-case scenarios of regular 1000+ daily new cases.


----------



## james4beach

like_to_retire said:


> For sure. If you look at those disturbing graphs of the 1st wave and the much higher 2nd wave that they continue to publish every day of the total cases logged, and then overlay the graph of hospitalized and in-ICU cases, it's night and day. They've learned how to treat people and keep them out of the ICU. Isn't that an indicator that we should perhaps open the economy, since we have some pretty good methods of treatment now?


I think the most important indicator is the % load on hospitals (or whatever the bottleneck of the hospital system is, such as ICU).

And I suspect that's how Canadian health authorities are doing it anyway.


----------



## andrewf

like_to_retire said:


> For sure. If you look at those disturbing graphs of the 1st wave and the much higher 2nd wave that they continue to publish every day of the total cases logged, and then overlay the graph of hospitalized and in-ICU cases, it's night and day. They've learned how to treat people and keep them out of the ICU. Isn't that an indicator that we should perhaps open the economy, since we have some pretty good methods of treatment now?
> 
> ltr


Hospitalizations are still rising. Exponentials are relentless. You leave them to grow and things double enough times to overwhelm capacity. You can't be complacent while hospitalizations are rising as if you don't arrest that trend eventually you will be left with rationing care and letting people die like in Northern Italy and Wuhan during the initial wave.


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> I recall Europe going through wave 1 before North America. They seem to be returning to lockdowns now.....so if like the spring, we’re a few months behind, then further lockdowns are inevitable.
> 
> that Being said, even though we saw record number of daily cases in Ontario recently, the premier says we’ve avoided the worst-case scenario and things should be getting better shortly. They had worst-case scenarios of regular 1000+ daily new cases.


I think we can be more intelligent that going to full lock down. Of course, if we are complacent and allow things to get out of hand we may need to be that drastic.


----------



## james4beach

Manitoba is considering more aggressive restrictions. The hospitals are running out of beds.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-red-pandemic-measures-1.5782903



The positivity rate is unbelievably high. Back in June & July, less than 0.2% of tests were coming back positive (an indication of how many people in society are infected). Today it's nearly 8%.


----------



## calm

This season of economic activity is where at least 60% of profits for the complete year are earned by brick and motar retailers. This is a huge economic hit to our country if we encourage shoppers to stay home or make it too cumbersome to actually shop.
----
"A new report from Canada's Chief Public Health Officer reveals Canada ranked 79th out of 210 countries in total #COVID19 cases per million, and 26th for total deaths per million, as of Aug. 22."
----
All the Christmas gifts and Boxing Day sale stuff have all been ordered and shipped.
“The ships are 100% full. The containers are 100% full. You can’t get a container built. You can’t pick up a ship from the spot market. The whole container-shipping cycle is at absolutely full pelt,” exclaimed Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express (ONE), the world’s sixth-largest container line.
October’s ocean container market is “unbelievable,” said Nixon during an International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) virtual event last week. “We are sold out,” he revealed.
“Our job now is to keep the network going from an operational standpoint,” Nixon continued. “The ports are getting jammed up now. We’re starting to see bottlenecks in the supply chain. That’s another challenge going into this winter.”
By Greg Miller
October 19, 2020








Container slots sell out, risking holiday ‘shipageddon’


On a collision course: holiday timing, surging consumer demand, thin inventories, and capacity constraints for container liners and ports.




www.freightwaves.com


----------



## sags

I think people can forget about big Christmas gatherings this year. Scratch New Years Eve as well.

It is quite likely that Ontario will go back into lock downs before then. I expect schools will close again. Ontario opened too early and the virus surged back.

Finance Minister Freeland's press conference was to assure Canadians of financial support when the pandemic forces the economy to close again.

Canadians are lucky they have a government that supported them. Many people in the US are facing financial destruction and nobody seems to care.


----------



## andrewf

james4beach said:


> Manitoba is considering more aggressive restrictions. The hospitals are running out of beds.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-red-pandemic-measures-1.5782903
> 
> 
> 
> The positivity rate is unbelievably high. Back in June & July, less than 0.2% of tests were coming back positive (an indication of how many people in society are infected). Today it's nearly 8%.
> 
> View attachment 20772


Maybe Manitoba wasn't hit very hard initially and didn't learn all the distancing & sanitation practices that other parts of the country got accustomed to earlier?

I bet you're glad you got out to BC. Hope your family is okay.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> Maybe Manitoba wasn't hit very hard initially and didn't learn all the distancing & sanitation practices that other parts of the country got accustomed to earlier?
> 
> I bet you're glad you got out to BC. Hope your family is okay.


Maybe that's what happened in MB. The situation was very good from the start of the pandemic until August. Perhaps this just led to complacency.

Yeah, I'm glad I moved to BC.


----------



## :) lonewolf

sags said:


> I think people can forget about big Christmas gatherings this year. Scratch New Years Eve as well.
> 
> It is quite likely that Ontario will go back into lock downs before then. I expect schools will close again. Ontario opened too early and the virus surged back.
> 
> Finance Minister Freeland's press conference was to assure Canadians of financial support when the pandemic forces the economy to close again.
> 
> Canadians are lucky they have a government that supported them. Many people in the US are facing financial destruction and nobody seems to care.


Sags, that is a great idea to shut down Christmas. Lets bring the suicide rate up

Be like Thailand recently read they had something like 58 Covid deaths & over 2500 deaths from suicides.
Lock everybody up so abusers can get exercise beating up their spouse. 
Help bring the death count up by reducing vitamin D,
Get locked up like an animal that is not worthy of living so you can watch TV & be brain washed by the psychopaths tyrants. Give them your freedom so they will protect you 
Increase drug deaths
Increase poverty which is more deadly then any virus.


----------



## sags

Lock downs are happening all over the world because of rising COVID cases. What news are you watching ?


----------



## Spudd

:) lonewolf said:


> Sags, that is a great idea to shut down Christmas. Lets bring the suicide rate up
> 
> Be like Thailand recently read they had something like 58 Covid deaths & over 2500 deaths from suicides.
> Lock everybody up so abusers can get exercise beating up their spouse.
> Help bring the death count up by reducing vitamin D,
> Get locked up like an animal that is not worthy of living so you can watch TV & be brain washed by the psychopaths tyrants. Give them your freedom so they will protect you
> Increase drug deaths
> Increase poverty which is more deadly then any virus.


That's an increase in suicide to be sure, but the number of suicides for the previous year was 2092, meaning an extra 459 people killed themselves.








Suicide rate surges 22%


The suicide rate has increased by 22% in Thailand in the first six months of this year during the Covid-19 pandemic, compared to the same period last year, according to the Department of Mental Health.




www.bangkokpost.com





On the other hand, with a population of 70 million, if Thailand had followed the Swedish example which everyone loves to point to as a model, they would have had 41,000 Covid deaths based on the Swedish deaths/1M population. But because they chose to have a very strict lockdown, they instead had only 58 Covid deaths. 

Lockdown: 517 extra deaths between Covid and suicide
No lockdown: 41,090 extra deaths (just Covid)


----------



## james4beach

This B.C. conspiracy theory guy travelled to a "flat earth" conference in South Carolina... a convention to discuss how the earth is flat. He bragged about taking his mask off during the flights, told the border agent that the Quarantine Act doesn't apply to him, and then violated the mandatory 14 day isolation upon re-entering Canada.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-covid-conspiracy-theorist-charged-1.5790376





> Parhar also spoke in Sunday's speech about police visiting his house on multiple occasions over the weekend to fine him for breaking quarantine, and mocked an officer who revealed a relative had recently died of COVID-19.


He's been charged with breaking the mandatory quarantine, and has made his first appearance in court. IMO, the Crown should pursue the most aggressive charges which could mean 3 years in prison. Time to make an example of a few of these people and stop them from endangering the public. They can continue working on their flat earth theories from prison; I hear they have access to crayons.


----------



## james4beach

james4beach said:


> CDC Acknowledges Coronavirus Can Spread Via Airborne Transmission
> 
> 
> People with COVID-19 can infect others even if they are more than 6 feet apart. In updated guidance, the CDC acknowledges airborne transmission can occur, especially in poorly ventilated spaces.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CDC spells out: COVID spreads via airborne transmission
> 
> ​The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now says the coronavirus can be spread through airborne particles that can linger in the air "for minutes or even hours" — even among people who are more than 6 feet apart.​​
> However the CDC also says this isn't very common. I think it's considered to be one of the less common ways that it's spread.
> 
> This means we must be even more careful about close contact with others, and shared air. Try to stay as far away from people as possible, because 6 feet might not be enough. Always wear a mask around other people, even if you can keep a distance.
> 
> For example if you're shopping in a store, it's not enough to just keep a distance from other people. You need a mask when you're in the same air space. Previously it was thought that keeping 6 feet distance indoors is safe enough, because that's about as far as droplets can go. But now we know that it's not just those big droplets that transmit it, but also very fine particles that linger in the air.


I posted this a month ago, and now Canada has finally acknowledged COVID is airborne and updated its guidance.

The CDC published this a month ago! Why is it taking our public health authorities so long to keep up? Aren't they coordinating with the WHO & American CDC?

*Reminder*: main message here is that COVID can linger in the air for quite a while. It's not enough to just keep a distance from others. You should wear a mask any time you're indoors around strangers, even if it's possible to maintain 2 meter distance. Ventilate by opening windows if possible.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I heard, to deal with this aerosol threat Dr. Tam came out and now recommends the use of a 3 layer mask.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/three-layer-mask-tam-1.5787946



She is such an idiot. Obviously the more layers the more filtering that gets done. The problem is, the mask a person actually wears will be infinitely more protective then the mask that they remove. I believe she is simply responding to the issue that the holes between the cotton fibres of a cotton mask are wayyyyy bigger then the diameter of a virus itself. For context, if you piled 10,000 C-19 viruses on top of each other they would be able to slide through a hole 1 mm wide.

The problem she faces is how do you shut down the holes in a mask, to prevent a virus that is so small from getting through...while at the same time allowing for air to flow in both directions. Her answer is the 3 layer mask. All she is doing there, in my opinion, is closing off the very small holes currently used for air. I doubt anyone could work an 8 hr shift while wearing what would be required to keep those aerosol viruses out.

In my opinion, one should simply filter as much as they can until they find it difficult to breathe. For many it will be a simple single layer mask. Kind of depends on how long you will need to wear one and how much exertion one is conducting while wearing it. Are you working a busy restaurant or a slow one. How much air your mask allows through will make a big difference.

The benefit of the mask is not that it keeps out all virus from your respiratory system. No mask can do that if it also allows air to get through. A masks, sole and very valuable benefit, is that it reduces the amount of virus that will get through. You may still get infected but the mask will almost ensure it is a very lose dose and therefore benign infection. Your body should be able to fight off the little amount of virus that gets through.

So with that in mind I would rather see a person take 3 single layer masks and keep changing those throughout the time they need them, then to see them pile all 3 together, and then pull it down below their nose during the time they need more air. *A mask needs to be changed frequently. *How many months will we wait for Dr. Tam to tell us that? It took her 2 or 3 months just to see that covering your mouth and nose with anything could help.

The virus, that your mask so diligently filtered away from your respiratory system, IS STILL LIVING ON THE OUTSIDE OF YOUR MASK. Does anyone think that is overly safe? Does it take more then a kindergarten graduate to think that removing a contaminated mask from close proximity to your nose and mouth, might be beneficial, instead of breathing it all in over the next few hours of wear. In Dr. Tam's 3 layer mask, the vacuum your lungs will need to produce to simply get any air into your lungs will be more then enough power to pull a lot more of those viruses from the cotton fibres of the mask right down your throat.

This stuff drives me nuts. Please if you have to wear a mask for a long while (more then 30 minutes) change it with a clean one when you can do it safely. It's common sense.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> I heard, to deal with this aerosol threat Dr. Tam came out and now recommends the use of a 3 layer mask.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/three-layer-mask-tam-1.5787946
> 
> 
> 
> She is such an idiot. Obviously the more layers the more filtering that gets done. The problem is, the mask a person actually wears will be infinitely more protective then the mask that they remove. I believe she is simply responding to the issue that the holes between the cotton fibres of a cotton mask are wayyyyy bigger then the diameter of a virus itself. For context, if you piled 10,000 C-19 viruses on top of each other they would be able to slide through a hole 1 mm wide.
> 
> The problem she faces is how do you shut down the holes in a mask, to prevent a virus that is so small from getting through...while at the same time allowing for air to flow in both directions. Her answer is the 3 layer mask. All she is doing there, in my opinion, is closing off the very small holes currently used for air. I doubt anyone could work an 8 hr shift while wearing what would be required to keep those aerosol viruses out.
> 
> In my opinion, one should simply filter as much as they can until they find it difficult to breathe. For many it will be a simple single layer mask. Kind of depends on how long you will need to wear one and how much exertion one is conducting while wearing it. Are you working a busy restaurant or a slow one. How much air your mask allows through will make a big difference.
> 
> The benefit of the mask is not that it keeps out all virus from your respiratory system. No mask can do that if it also allows air to get through. A masks, sole and very valuable benefit, is that it reduces the amount of virus that will get through. You may still get infected but the mask will almost ensure it is a very lose dose and therefore benign infection. Your body should be able to fight off the little amount of virus that gets through.
> 
> So with that in mind I would rather see a person take 3 single layer masks and keep changing those throughout the time they need them, then to see them pile all 3 together, and then pull it down below their nose during the time they need more air. *A mask needs to be changed frequently. *How many months will we wait for Dr. Tam to tell us that? It took her 2 or 3 months just to see that covering your mouth and nose with anything could help.
> 
> The virus, that your mask so diligently filtered away from your respiratory system, IS STILL LIVING ON THE OUTSIDE OF YOUR MASK. Does anyone think that is overly safe? Does it take more then a kindergarten graduate to think that removing a contaminated mask from close proximity to your nose and mouth, might be beneficial, instead of breathing it all in over the next few hours of wear. In Dr. Tam's 3 layer mask, the vacuum your lungs will need to produce to simply get any air into your lungs will be more then enough power to pull a lot more of those viruses from the cotton fibres of the mask right down your throat.
> 
> This stuff drives me nuts. Please if you have to wear a mask for a long while (more then 30 minutes) change it with a clean one when you can do it safely. It's common sense.


You need to stop droplets, which are far larger than air molecules. The type of mask she is describing is not particularly difficult to breath through. I mostly use surgical masks, just because I find they fit better and are more comfortable.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> You need to stop droplets, which are far larger than air molecules. The type of mask she is describing is not particularly difficult to breath through. I mostly use surgical masks, just because I find they fit better and are more comfortable.


Sure. No exact idea of the type of mask she is talking about but the obvious idea is one wants to close up the outside environment to the maximum level that still allows comfortable breathing. If she is doing that, then great.

That said, no one has yet discussed the need to change out a mask regularly. Whether you are filtering droplets or aerosol virus, it makes no difference to where that filtered virus ends up. It has not been sterilized and most likely can live for some time on the moist outside of your mask. How long it can live is not known but I suspect it can live longer then the time the wearer can hold their breath. I imagine many, many breaths will need to be taken before that filtered virus is dead. That is my concern and it should be hers as well. It is a reasonably simple solutions with little downside. Just change your mask.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> I posted this a month ago, and now Canada has finally acknowledged COVID is airborne and updated its guidance.
> 
> The CDC published this a month ago! Why is it taking our public health authorities so long to keep up? Aren't they coordinating with the WHO & American CDC?
> 
> *Reminder*: main message here is that COVID can linger in the air for quite a while. It's not enough to just keep a distance from others. You should wear a mask any time you're indoors around strangers, even if it's possible to maintain 2 meter distance. Ventilate by opening windows if possible.


Saw somewhere WHO reported the "possibility" of airborne travel back in July. Of course this doesn't mean it's the most likely way transmit, just "it could happen" if the conditions are just right. 

Honestly, the main thing we should be focusing on is not letting people group together indoors unless it's related to essential services in areas where community spread is taking place. Just tonight, saw 4 Walmart employees standing side by side having a chat by the self-checkouts but I'm sure they though it was ok because they had masks on. I'd also guesstimate 80% are not even thinking about the 2m rule anymore based on what I'm seeing in stores.

I pass by a local church everyday, always 30-50 cars in the lot despite having 265 cases in the city today. Back in April, that church had maybe 5 cars. The list of schools they posted for here with covid cases is well over 100 now and many of those kids get on a transit bus after school.

Of course masks can help but I do not have faith in the majority of the general public to properly to use them. Sure, a sick individual wearing a mask will have the spread limited but I will also assume everything they touch is contaminated. 

On the plus side, for Winnipeg, I'm finally seeing activity drop again due to them closing restuarants, bars and such but I think they should be closing more down. People need to limit their contacts.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Honestly, the main thing we should be focusing on is not letting people group together indoors unless it's related to essential services in areas where community spread is taking place. Just tonight, saw 4 Walmart employees standing side by side having a chat by the self-checkouts but I'm sure they though it was ok because they had masks on. I'd also guesstimate 80% are not even thinking about the 2m rule anymore based on what I'm seeing in stores.


It really should be emphasized that masks are really part of a system of protective measures, the first being physical distancing. However, people are social beings, so they get a little punchy if they don't interact... standing apart 2m helps, but in some places it can be difficult.


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## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> It really should be emphasized that masks are really part of a system of protective measures, the first being physical distancing. However, people are social beings, so they get a little punchy if they don't interact... standing apart 2m helps, but in some places it can be difficult.


I think the new message "if you can't stay 2m apart wear a mask" is really being taken the wrong way by many. We've had manditory masks for a while now and the numbers are still climbing. We went from nearly the best to the worst city in Canada in just a few weeks.


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## Beaver101

cainvest said:


> *I think the new message "if you can't stay 2m apart wear a mask" is really being taken the wrong way *by many. We've had manditory masks for a while now and the numbers are still climbing. We went from nearly the best to the worst city in Canada in just a few weeks.


 ... that or some folks just doesn't understand or care about the "we're still in a pandemic, covid19 is still alive!" protocols (like at least 3) put in place by the health experts.


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## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> I think the new message "if you can't stay 2m apart wear a mask" is really being taken the wrong way by many. We've had manditory masks for a while now and the numbers are still climbing. We went from nearly the best to the worst city in Canada in just a few weeks.


Perfect. The other message that really needs to be started, right now, is to inform Canadians that Christmas gatherings this year can only include those who live in your household. Leaving hope for Christmas just gives Canadians a reason to plan. Once those plans are in place and the guests have been invited and have confirmed attendance, the ability to get those individuals to change their plans is infinitely more difficult. 

There is not a snowballs chance that we will be in a position where Christmas get togethers will not be able to cause serious harm to individuals and our overall pandemic effort. Should we really expect our businesses to shut down again, lay off numerous employees because Grandma wants to have a big family dinner this year. Have we learned nothing from Easter and Thanksgiving.


----------



## andrewf

Denmark going back into lock-down over this mink strain of COVID, and culling 17M animals.









Travel to UK from Denmark banned amid worries over Covid in mink


All non-British national or resident travellers who have been in Denmark in past 14 days will be denied entry into UK




www.theguardian.com


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> Perfect. The other message that really needs to be started, right now, is *to inform Canadians that Christmas gatherings this year can only include those who live in your household.* Leaving hope for Christmas just gives Canadians a reason to plan. Once those plans are in place and the guests have been invited and have confirmed attendance, the ability to get those individuals to change their plans is infinitely more difficult.
> 
> There is not a snowballs chance that we will be in a position where Christmas get togethers will not be able to cause serious harm to individuals and our overall pandemic effort. Should we really expect our businesses to shut down again, lay off numerous employees because Grandma wants to have a big family dinner this year. Have we learned nothing from Easter and Thanksgiving.


 ... a good detailed explanation of the meaning of "social" distancing.


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## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> I think the new message "if you can't stay 2m apart wear a mask" is really being taken the wrong way by many. We've had manditory masks for a while now and the numbers are still climbing. We went from nearly the best to the worst city in Canada in just a few weeks.


I guess I haven't really heard the new message. But masks are slowing the numbers and the hospitals aren't completely overloaded yet, although I imagine some are at the breaking point.




__





Face mask mandates slowed the spread of COVID-19 in Canada | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal


The mandatory wearing of face masks remains a contentious policy issue during the COVID-19 pandemic. This column evaluates the impact of mask mandates on the spread of COVID-19 in Canada, using the different timings that masks were mandated across the 34 health districts of the province of...




voxeu.org


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> Denmark going back into lock-down over this mink strain of COVID, and culling 17M animals.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Travel to UK from Denmark banned amid worries over Covid in mink
> 
> 
> All non-British national or resident travellers who have been in Denmark in past 14 days will be denied entry into UK
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


 .. that's sad.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> Perfect. The other message that really needs to be started, right now, is to inform Canadians that Christmas gatherings this year can only include those who live in your household. Leaving hope for Christmas just gives Canadians a reason to plan. Once those plans are in place and the guests have been invited and have confirmed attendance, the ability to get those individuals to change their plans is infinitely more difficult.
> 
> There is not a snowballs chance that we will be in a position where Christmas get togethers will not be able to cause serious harm to individuals and our overall pandemic effort.


I spoke with my parents yesterday, and I will not be flying to visit them at Christmas. We have all decided it's simply too dangerous for our family.

Just about every year, I get on planes and fly to see my parents at Christmas. Most of those winters, I pick up some kind of cold en route. Can't take a chance this year. If I pick up COVID on the flight and then infect my parents, they could die from it.

Americans have their Thanksgiving in three weeks. Unfortunately I suspect this event will accelerate COVID spread in the US very significantly.



bgc_fan said:


> But masks are slowing the numbers and the hospitals aren't completely overloaded yet, although I imagine some are at the breaking point.


Hospitals in Winnipeg are at the brink of becoming overloaded. Doctors have been voicing the alarm and there are considerations of even stricter shut-downs in Winnipeg. The hospital capacities are the ultimate bottleneck.

Once hospitals are overwhelmed, all business, everything has to be shut down -- full stop.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Hospitals in Winnipeg are at the brink of becoming overloaded. Doctors have been voicing the alarm and there are considerations of even stricter shut-downs in Winnipeg. The hospital capacities are the ultimate bottleneck.
> 
> Once hospitals are overwhelmed, all business, everything has to be shut down -- full stop.


Exactly, masks appear to have little to no effect when people are allowed to get together in groups and/or have many contacts. Another week of this and we'll be at really alarming levels.


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## sags

Beaver101 said:


> .. that's sad.


That is downright scary. Another coronavirus appearing on the scene ?

I also read that Alberta has a case of the "swine flu".........Geez ....we need a break.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Exactly, masks appear to have little to no effect when people are allowed to get together in groups and/or have many contacts. Another week of this and we'll be at really alarming levels.


Little effect is probably the wrong description. Masks are vital to your protection, but this is how work.

Social distancing will keep you from getting infected. Masks will keep you from obtaining a dangerous infection. A mask cannot guarantee that you will not get infected, especially if the time of your exposure to a highly concentrated viral source, is extended for a long period of time (more then 5 minutes).

With that said, if all one does is look at infection numbers the true benefit of a mask may not be fully observed. Unless you cut off all air you really cannot keep all viruses from getting through a mask. All a mask can do is filter out a percentage of the virus that may be coming at you. Most cotton masks should be able to cut out around 90% of the virus. I doubt many people in the ICU right now would be there if they only received an initial viral dose of 1/10th of what they actually did receive. That said, they still would make it onto the infections list, but would probably also make it onto the recovered list as well.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Little effect is probably the wrong description. Masks are vital to your protection, but this is how work.
> 
> Social distancing will keep you from getting infected. Masks will keep you from obtaining a dangerous infection. A mask cannot guarantee that you will not get infected, especially if the time of your exposure to a highly concentrated viral source, is extended for a long period of time (more then 5 minutes).


I don't see masks as a significant form of protection for the general public and don't "rely" on it myself. In other words, masks do help contain the outgoing spread (very good) but do little for incoming infection (poor). Generally people will contaminate themselves very quickly, you see it all the time with them touching/adjusting their masks and/or pulling it below their noses. In the unlikely event someone sneezes,coughs or talks directly at you from a close distance a mask will no doubt help otherwise little effect IMO.


----------



## potato69

Face masks: what the data say


The science supports that face coverings are saving lives during the coronavirus pandemic, and yet the debate trundles on. How much evidence is enough?




www.nature.com


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> I don't see masks as a significant form of protection for the general public and don't "rely" on it myself. In other words, masks do help contain the outgoing spread (very good) but do little for incoming infection (poor). Generally people will contaminate themselves very quickly, you see it all the time with them touching/adjusting their masks and/or pulling it below their noses. In the unlikely event someone sneezes,coughs or talks directly at you from a close distance a mask will no doubt help otherwise little effect IMO.


Do you really think touching a contaminated surface and then touching your face is worse then breathing an infected person's air who stands a foot away from your face for a prolonged period of time?

You are just wrong. Masks are vital to your protection. As for the rest, not touching your face helps a lot, as well, and as has already been said, social distancing is the best and probably better then most vaccines.

Don't know why you wouldn't use them all.


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## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Do you really think touching a contaminated surface and then touching your face is worse then breathing a persons air who stands a foot away from your face for a prolonged period of time?


What I saying is the general public shouldn't be standing a foot away from someone for a prolonged period of time, mask or no mask. I do see many people wearing masks doing exactly this but yet keep their distance before they "mask up".



OptsyEagle said:


> You are just wrong. Masks are vital to your protection. As for the rest, not touching your face helps a lot, as well, and as has already been said, social distancing is the best and probably better then most vaccines.
> 
> You really should use them all.


As I said, I agree that masks will likely help alot for outgoing spread but I'm not about to move closer to other people because I'm wearing one, I'll totally avoid being close to people.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> As I said, I agree that masks will likely help alot for outgoing spread but I'm not about to move closer to other people because I'm wearing one, I'll totally avoid being close to people.


As would anyone. I am not sure if we are of the same mind or at odds. You said you didn't see a mask as a significant form of protection. That I disagree with with every fibre of my body.

If all you were saying is you would rather be 6 feet away from a person then closer with a mask on, then I agree with that. I just don't like people reading these posts and hearing that masks are not a vital form of their protection when we know that we cannot stay 6 feet away from everyone all the time. 

A mask could save their life in the precise situations where not having one will end up seeing them dead.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> As would anyone. I am not sure if we are of the same mind or at odds. You said you didn't see a mask as a significant form of protection. That I disagree with with every fibre of my body.
> 
> If all you were saying is you would rather be 6 feet away from a person then closer with a mask on, then I agree with that. I just don't like people reading these posts and hearing that masks are not a vital form of their protection when we know that we cannot stay 6 feet away from everyone all the time.
> 
> A mask could save their life in the precise situations where not having one will end up seeing them dead.


I gather we're a bit at odds with masks. 

Yes, I definitely would rather be 2m (perferably more) away with no mask than closer with a mask on. I just see wearing a mask for my own protection (incoming not outgoing) a much much smaller risk factor than other safety precautions I take.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> I gather we're a bit at odds with masks.
> 
> Yes, I definitely would rather be 2m (perferably more) away with no mask than closer with a mask on. I just see wearing a mask for my own protection (incoming not outgoing) a much much smaller risk factor than other safety precautions I take.


Then let's put it another way. If you needed a contractor to put a new roof on your house and he wanted to go over the quote with you (and he did not have a copy) would you wear a mask or do you have some other way of protecting yourself during a 1 foot distance interlude with a stranger?


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Then let's put it another way. If you needed a contractor to put a new roof on your house and he wanted to go over the quote with you (and he did not have a copy) would you wear a mask or do you have some other way of protecting yourself during a 1 foot distance interlude with a stranger?


I'd tell him to make a copy or send a photo of it to my phone. I'm not going to break the 2m rule just to have a chat with a contractor, a stranger, or even my friends for that matter.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> I'd tell him to make a copy or send a photo of it to my phone. I'm not going to break the 2m rule just to have a chat with a contractor, a stranger, or even my friends for that matter.


Perfect. That said, if one does not want to go to all that trouble and was going to get up close to look at that quote, then we agree, a mask is vital.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Perfect. That said, if one does not want to go to all that trouble and was going to get up close to look at that quote, then we agree, a mask is vital.


IMO this is incorrect thinking and part of the problem right now. Substituting a mask for maintaining proper distancing is not good when an easy solution is at hand.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> IMO this is incorrect thinking and part of the problem right now. Substituting a mask for maintaining proper distancing is not good when an easy solution is at hand.


I agree with you cainvest, whenever possible it is best to just stay away from people and keep distance. Keeping a healthy distance of _several metres_ from everyone not in your household should be #1 priority.

In situations where you truly can't do that, like public transit, then obviously wear a mask. In my case I normally would take public transit but I am avoiding it entirely. I'm using alternatives such as walking, Lyft/Uber and rental cars where I am either alone, or can open a window and get ventilation.


----------



## sags

I avoid people and wear a mask when I can't, but my wife works p/t in a retirement home and I can't very well isolate from her or wear a mask all day in the house.

I just have to hope and trust she doesn't get infected. Our grandson also visits every other weekend and sometimes stays for a night here. That makes me the most nervous.

I would feel better if he wasn't going to school, all crammed into a school bus. He tells me they take their masks off for lunch and recess, so what is the point of masks there ?

Cases in our city and area have jumped up recently. We had almost no cases for awhile and then boom.........27 new cases in a day.

The ages are varied as well...........from young kids to old people. It is pretty evenly spread out. The difference I suppose will be in the "outcomes".

Our hospital ERs are jam packed at the best of times. Even a handful of COVID cases creates big problems for them.

Ontario really needs to give a lot of consideration to the health care system. Universal healthcare is great........if you can actually get it.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> I avoid people and wear a mask when I can't, but my wife works p/t in a retirement home and I can't very well isolate from her or wear a mask all day in the house.
> 
> I just have to hope and trust she doesn't get infected. Our grandson also visits every other weekend and sometimes stays for a night here. That makes me the most nervous.


Can you reduce the frequency of your grandson's visits or not do overnight stays? These are extremely unique times. You could still see him occasionally but stopping the overnight stays would be good because it reduces the exposure time and reduces the risk.

Can't do anything about the "air space" you share with your wife, but I would recommend being very cautious with your hands. Wash with soap and water more often than you normally do, and try not to touch your nose or eyes. I think you should also routinely sanitize commonly touched surfaces such as the fridge door, light switches, faucet handles/knobs. Even if nobody has symptoms.

The reason is that she could potentially be carrying the virus, touch her nose for an instant, and then plant the virus onto a shared touching surface. Wiping down those surfaces should reduce the chances.

Also watch your own behaviours such as touching your nose. Early in the pandemic I visited my mom and dad and noticed that both of them were -- constantly -- touching their noses and rubbing their eyes. That's a great way to infect oneself after you get the virus onto your hands. These behaviours are habits and a person does it without realizing it. I've tried to get my mom used to the idea, when her nose / eyes are itchy, to pick up a kleenex and use that as a barrier.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> I avoid people and wear a mask when I can't, but my wife works p/t in a retirement home and I can't very well isolate from her or wear a mask all day in the house.
> 
> I just have to hope and trust she doesn't get infected. Our grandson also visits every other weekend and sometimes stays for a night here. That makes me the most nervous.
> 
> I would feel better if he wasn't going to school, all crammed into a school bus. He tells me they take their masks off for lunch and recess, so what is the point of masks there ?


The way I look at that situation is this. Unfortuneately, there is no precise science to this but there is a little science and a lot of common sense.

The way I figure it is that if someone living in my household gets Covid-19 then we might as well expect that we will all get it. C-19 is just too infectious to assume the others in the household could avoid it. As I have said, many times on this board and others, the level of initial dose of virus that you are infected with will be the primary determinant of how well you fair after infection. In other words a persons body, no matter how frail, should be able to fight off a very low dose of C-19 but a medium or higher initial dose may very well kill them.

So lets assume your wife gets infected at work tomorrow. Whatever level of dose she receives, it will do nothing but increase in concentration over the next few weeks. Assuming you will not be able to avoid infection and assuming you get infected by a certain percentage of her concentration level, the question arises when would be the best time to get infected by your wife? The answer is "as soon as you possibly can".

Obviously avoiding infection is the most safe, and has the most scientific data to back that up. With C-19, it is so infectious that I cannot imagine a spouse would be able to avoid infection from another spouse who is. If one feels that to be close to a certainty, as I do, one might want to avoid extending the time they stay uninfected. In other words if your wife infects you at dinner time tomorrow, your chances of survival will be significantly improved then if you manage to avoid it until Thursday. A Thursday infection may very well kill you. It might be just too high of concentration at that time that your body will not be able to fight off.

That is how I see it, so with that in mind, I am hugging my wife a little more often these days. I certainly do not wear a mask around the house and except for sterilizing things that come into the house, I am not sterilizing counters that a household member may have infected. I believe that would be counter to my longer term safety. If they get infected, you probably want to get infected from them as soon as you can. Does that mean if my wife comes home with a positive C-19 test result that I am going to give her a big kiss. No. The infection I am talking about is when no one could possibly know anyone has been infected. That is probably the safest dose anyone could ever get. After that it most likely gets a lot more dangerous to everyone.

Just my opinion of course.


----------



## sags

The damn bug is so infectious........but at least there are fewer people dying from it. The treatments are better and more older people are surviving.

I would definately be high risk though. I guess if my time is up........then it is up. Can't worry myself to death.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> The way I figure it is that if someone living in my household gets Covid-19 then we might as well expect that we will all get it. C-19 is just too infectious to assume the others in the household could avoid it.


You'd pretty much think it's a given that it would easily spread within a household but that's not always the case. One of my co-workers just recovered from Covid a week ago, his wife and daughter did not get infected ... go figure.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> You'd pretty much think it's a given that it would easily spread within a household but that's not always the case. One of my co-workers just recovered from Covid a week ago, his wife and daughter did not get infected ... go figure.


That actually does not mean that some of the co-workers virus did not end up in the bodies of the others in the household. It might just mean that the amount of virus that transferred over to the other people in the house was an amount below the infective dose. Also, for anyone who has not actually been tested, we actually do not know who was infected and who was not. If my strategy is right, the secondary infections should mostly end up being asymptomatic. That is the whole point of the strategy. A safer infection.

Anyway I have been struggling to find data to prove or disprove my theory but no one seems to think it is important to look into the infection rates of others in a household of someone who is infected. I have heard of secondary infections ending up asymptomatic (the majority) and I have heard of secondary infections that put a person in the ICU. The ICU instance I believe would probably be a situation where the secondary infected individual succeeded in avoiding infection for quite a few days (perhaps being away from the house for a few days) and then was infected when the original infection had grown to a much higher virus concentration level. Also, there will always be quite a few weird exceptions, since we all are of different ages and everyone's immune systems are definitely not the same.

Anyway, with that said it would be nice to see a study on the infection rates of others living in household with C-19 infected members. Did they get infected? How sick did they get? How sick was the person who was originally infected? What are their ages?


----------



## Money172375

Record numbers in Ontario. Region of Peel recommending no inter-household visits....even outside. Essential activities only.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> If my strategy is right, the secondary infections should mostly end up being asymptomatic. That is the whole point of the strategy.


I agree ... would be interesting to see data on this. Previously (many months ago) true asymptomatic cases we very, very low and almost all turned out to be pre-symptomatic. Not sure if there is any update to date data on this.


----------



## Plugging Along

We have had two times where someone in my house has been in relatively close contact with a confirmed case. Both times, we did our best to isolate that family member. That meant they stayed in their room with an extra heap UVC air filter, window open (if not too cold), all food left outside of the room, the only time they left the room was to goto the washroom which no one was allowed in, disinfectant spray and wipes provided to the family member, and I did a clean throughout the day. They both like it as they Had everything catered to them. One isolated for 6 day the other 3 before they received their negative results.

Our goal was not have both adults in quarantine so the household could still run. That being said, I am pretty sure if I get sick, the rest family is going to struggle. I have even stocked an area for easy to prepare meals for them in case I am quarantined and have a few friends we have agreed to help each other out in case we need it.


----------



## moderator2

sags said:


> The damn bug is so infectious........but at least there are fewer people dying from it. The treatments are better and more older people are surviving.
> 
> I would definately be high risk though. I guess if my time is up........then it is up. Can't worry myself to death.


Still do your best to avoid unnecessary extra exposure. If you see her coughing (for any reason) remind her to cough into her sleeve. Make sure both of you are cleaning your hands before/after common surfaces. If she has a runny nose, remind her to wash her hands after blowing her nose.

The bug is very infectious, but the amount of virus exposure dose matters as well. Reduce exposure as much as possible and it improves your chances.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Yes. I should add that once you see any symptoms whatsoever, stay away from them. I think the concentration within a person showing symptoms has now moved to the dangerous level for all others (not necessarily the person coughing, they will probably be fine). Keep in mind that from data we know a person showing symptoms has probably had the virus growing exponentially inside them for an average of 5 days already.

This theory of mine is not just something I made up in my head. I took a course in microbiology in 1986 and we discussed these things. It is how most viruses work. Knowing this, I spent the next 34 years doing my best to avoid the colds, that my wife was so prone at bringing home (she did take the bus and did most shopping and I did not). When she said she had a sore throat, etc., I would always make sure I gave her a big hug and I did very little to avoid her virus. The result: I almost always got her cold. Many times a bad one. That said, my wife obtained many colds and flu's that I did not get or at least I was asymptomatic (more likely the case) with it. So when I analyzed the results, my strategy became one of:

1) If they show symptoms, the concentration of virus they have is probably too concentrated for me to obtain without symptoms, so stay away.


----------



## sags

Money172375 said:


> Record numbers in Ontario. Region of Peel recommending no inter-household visits....even outside. Essential activities only.


Seriously.........This virus is getting on my nerves. It is time to tell the virus to.......


----------



## Mukhang pera




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## Mukhang pera




----------



## Money172375

Perhaps some light at the end of the tunnel....









Pfizer soars after vaccine prevents 90% of COVID cases in study - BNN Bloomberg


The COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE prevented more than 90 per cent of symptomatic infections in a study of tens of thousands of volunteers, the most encouraging scientific advance so far in the battle against the coronavirus.




www.bnnbloomberg.ca


----------



## OptsyEagle

I am not a vaccine expert but infections have already been prevented by over 90% of all Canadians and none of us have been vaccinated yet. Hopefully their science is a little more precise and they are aware of that little detail I just pointed out.

To be truthful if ONLY 90% of trial patients avoided infection then it would appear that the placebo patients probably did a little better then the ones who got the vaccine.

I must be missing something.


----------



## OptsyEagle

_"According to Pfizer, the vaccine proved to be more than 90% effective in the first 94 subjects who had both been infected by coronavirus and had developed at least one of the disease's symptoms, according to the companies. The companies say no serious safety issues have come up in its study, which includes almost 44,000 subjects in the United States and in other countries."_
-----------------------------

This sounds more like a treatment then a vaccine. I am guessing, from what they are saying, that they vaccinated 94 people and all were later infected by C-19, however, I am again guessing, that the symptoms for 85 of them never went past mild.

Not sure if the above two statements are the same thing but if it is true, we already know that 80% of current infections end up with just mild symptoms. So what is this vaccine doing other then hopefully making Pfizer a lot of money?

What am I missing here. Would sure like to see the actual data.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Here is a better description of what they have done, then what I posted above.





__





TMX Money







money.tmx.com





From that news release I am guessing that out of 38,955 patients that received both doses of the vaccine only 164 confirmed cases of C-19 were later seen. That certainly is a little better but again, that means that of all vaccinated individuals 0.4% were infected.

Since that is not 10% I can't say that is even what they are saying. In any event only about 0.7% of Canadian's, without a vaccine, have been infected to date and that data goes back a lot longer then the Pfizer study. I would imagine 99.6% (100-0.4) of Canadians have avoided the virus without the vaccine, if we looked at only the numbers from the date of the start of the Pfizer trials. So again, what do we have here?

I am not a negative person, but except for Pfizer saying they have saved the world and stocks going up, I have yet to see the good news. I am sure it is there, but it would be nice if they told us. I don't take too much at face value. If I am going to be poked with something, I want to know what is in it and what it is going to do. Maybe that is just me.


----------



## sags

In simple terms, I think the data shows the vaccine kills the virus in 90% of infected patients.

Doctors who are experts are pretty excited with the results, so I will go with their opinion.

Of course, a vaccine can kill the virus, but have side effects that occur later. The extent of that may not be known until well after the vaccine is administered.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> This sounds more like a treatment then a vaccine. I am guessing, from what they are saying, that they vaccinated 94 people and all were later infected by C-19, however, I am again guessing, that the symptoms for 85 of them never went past mild.


As an FYI, vaccines can be used as treatments. All a vaccine does is help to activate your immune response, so when used for treating an infected person, it will help the immune system recognize the invader. Can Vaccines Cure Illnesses?

I think it is a somewhat new treatment approach.


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## Spudd

OptsyEagle said:


> Here is a better description of what they have done, then what I posted above.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TMX Money
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> money.tmx.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From that news release I am guessing that out of 38,955 patients that received both doses of the vaccine only 164 confirmed cases of C-19 were later seen. That certainly is a little better but again, that means that of all vaccinated individuals 0.4% were infected.


What they do is they give some of the participants the vaccine, and some a placebo. Then they wait until X people have contracted the coronavirus. They have a person on the study whose job it is to investigate each case and see whether the person who contracted it was given the vaccine or not. They assume that exposure to Covid-19 would have been similar between the two groups, statistically. So if 110 people in the study got Covid-19, and 100 of them got the placebo, the other 10 got the vaccine, that tells you that the vaccine is 90% effective. (i.e. 100 would have gotten it without the vaccine, but with the vaccine, 90 avoided getting it.)

I've started sporadically listening to a podcast called "TWIV - This Week in Virology" which features doctors and virologists, and as you can imagine, a lot of their content is Covid-related. In the most recent episode I listened to they explained how this works.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> In simple terms, I think the data shows the vaccine kills the virus in 90% of infected patients.
> 
> Doctors who are experts are pretty excited with the results, so I will go with their opinion.
> 
> Of course, a vaccine can kill the virus, but have side effects that occur later. The extent of that may not be known until well after the vaccine is administered.


Vaccines don't kill viruses, that's not how they work.

Of course, you didn't support any of your ridiculous claims anyway.


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## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> As an FYI, vaccines can be used as treatments. All a vaccine does is help to activate your immune response, so when used for treating an infected person, it will help the immune system recognize the invader. Can Vaccines Cure Illnesses?
> 
> I think it is a somewhat new treatment approach.


Those aren't really "vaccines", they're immune system stimulants or a kind of "retargetting" system.


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## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Those aren't really "vaccines", they're immune system stimulants or a kind of "retargetting" system.


You are splitting hairs, a vaccine mechanism is precisely that:

A vaccine stimulates your immune system to produce antibodies, exactly like it would if you were exposed to the disease. After getting vaccinated, you develop immunity to that disease, without having to get the disease first.

Therapeutic vaccines, perform the exact function as conventional preventative, it stimulates the immune system. If you want to use an outdated idea of vaccine, that's fine, but in the last decade they've been developing vaccines as treatments for various issues, like cancer.


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## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> You are splitting hairs, a vaccine mechanism is precisely that:
> 
> A vaccine stimulates your immune system to produce antibodies, exactly like it would if you were exposed to the disease. After getting vaccinated, you develop immunity to that disease, without having to get the disease first.
> 
> Therapeutic vaccines, perform the exact function as conventional preventative, it stimulates the immune system. If you want to use an outdated idea of vaccine, that's fine, but in the last decade they've been developing vaccines as treatments for various issues, like cancer.


I'm not aware of any COVID19 therapeutic vaccine, and I believe sags was just making up unfounded claims.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> I'm not aware of any COVID19 therapeutic vaccine, and I believe sags was just making up unfounded claims.


Here's one in development.








The Biologics News and Reports Portal


La Merie Publishing prepares brief and full reports as well as competitor analysis reports, the latter in a tabulated format with structured listings of industry-relevant data. One of our top-selling.




pipelinereview.com


----------



## OptsyEagle

Spudd said:


> What they do is they give some of the participants the vaccine, and some a placebo. Then they wait until X people have contracted the coronavirus. They have a person on the study whose job it is to investigate each case and see whether the person who contracted it was given the vaccine or not. They assume that exposure to Covid-19 would have been similar between the two groups, statistically. So if 110 people in the study got Covid-19, and 100 of them got the placebo, the other 10 got the vaccine, that tells you that the vaccine is 90% effective. (i.e. 100 would have gotten it without the vaccine, but with the vaccine, 90 avoided getting it.)
> 
> I've started sporadically listening to a podcast called "TWIV - This Week in Virology" which features doctors and virologists, and as you can imagine, a lot of their content is Covid-related. In the most recent episode I listened to they explained how this works.


Yes. Let's not get too technical. Spudd pretty much explained it as far as I have been able to research. I think the actual numbers are 38,955 people received the two doses of the vaccine or placebo. The study was to go until 164 people contracted Covid-19, but at this time so far 94 people have contracted Covid 19. Of those 94 people, 90% received 2 doses of placebo and 10% received the 2 doses of the vaccine.

So basically if we assume 10 people out of 19,477 people, who received the vaccine, tested positive to Covid 19 we can assume that the infection rate was about 0.05% over the time of this study. That is probably significantly lower then the world average during that time. In simple english, it reduced the chances of getting the virus by 90%.

We don't know if those 10 people were still shedding the virus (infectious to others) and I also don't know how sick they got. My guess is that they did not get very sick and I am of the opinion that if you don't have enough active virus in you to make you really sick, you probably don't shed enough to make others really sick either. Whether a virus or two move from one person to another, that we don't know about, is probably not important in getting us out of this pandemic.

Overall this sounds like good news. Too bad we didn't have 4 million participants so we could analyze larger numbers. Since I don't expect to see a dose of this stuff till probably the end of 2021 anyway, I imagine we will probably have that data by that time. Who knows.





__





TMX Money







money.tmx.com


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Here's one in development.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Biologics News and Reports Portal
> 
> 
> La Merie Publishing prepares brief and full reports as well as competitor analysis reports, the latter in a tabulated format with structured listings of industry-relevant data. One of our top-selling.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> pipelinereview.com


I can accept that there is one out there.

But it doesn't have claims of a 90% effective treatment for COVID19, which is the claim that was made.


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## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> I can accept that there is one out there.
> 
> But it doesn't have claims of a 90% effective treatment for COVID19, which is the claim that was made.


We're also talking about a different vaccine. I wasn't following sags' answers, I was just pointing out that vaccines can also be used for therapeutic treatments and not just preventative.


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## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> We're also talking about a different vaccine. I wasn't following sags' answers, I was just pointing out that vaccines can also be used for therapeutic treatments and not just preventative.


Fair.
I think we want to be clear about the distinction between.
1. Infection prevention (ie conventional vaccines)
2. Treatments (all types, including theraputic vaccines)

2 Will save lives.
But #1 is actually required to get "back to normal". It seems that COVID19 is particularly capable of defeating lockdowns.


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## sags

MrMatt said:


> I'm not aware of any COVID19 therapeutic vaccine, and I believe sags was just making up unfounded claims.


Apparently, there are a lot of things you aren't aware of.


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> Apparently, there are a lot of things you aren't aware of.


Yes
For one I'm still unaware of the data for your claim that there is a vaccine that cures 90% of COVID19 infections.
Nobody here has linked to the data.


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## sags

Manitoba is locking down, while our Ontario Premier Doug Ford is busy putting forth legislation that makes it much more difficult to hold nursing homes and insurance companies financially responsible for the misconduct of the nursing homes. Ford is back listening to his conservative party members and the nursing home and insurance lobby groups again.

Hopefully, he will be a one term Premier.









COVID-19 Update: Government of Ontario Introduces Liability Protection Under Bill 218


On October 20, 2020, the Government of Ontario introduced Bill 218, Supporting Ontario’s Recovery and Municipal Elections Act, 2020 (“Bill 218”).




www.mccarthy.ca













Clarity in a time of uncertainty: Bill 218 seeks to offer protection from liability arising from COVID-19


While public health officials continue to adapt and respond to evolving science, individuals and businesses and individuals struggle with an important question: What measures should be introduced to protect against liability arising from COVID-19?




gowlingwlg.com


----------



## sags

Ontario cases are exploding. It is already past time for a Province wide lock down.

If we don't get the pandemic under control, we too will experience the "COVID hell" that is projected for the US in the coming months.

Close the schools, lock down long term homes, close non-essential businesses. We must keep hospitals open and able to operate.

The first responders must be protected at all cost. There is no alternative option available.


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> Manitoba is locking down, while our Ontario Premier Doug Ford is busy putting forth legislation that makes it much more difficult to hold nursing homes and insurance companies financially responsible for the misconduct of the nursing homes. Ford is back listening to his conservative party members and the nursing home and insurance lobby groups again.
> 
> Hopefully, he will be a one term Premier.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Update: Government of Ontario Introduces Liability Protection Under Bill 218
> 
> 
> On October 20, 2020, the Government of Ontario introduced Bill 218, Supporting Ontario’s Recovery and Municipal Elections Act, 2020 (“Bill 218”).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mccarthy.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Clarity in a time of uncertainty: Bill 218 seeks to offer protection from liability arising from COVID-19
> 
> 
> While public health officials continue to adapt and respond to evolving science, individuals and businesses and individuals struggle with an important question: What measures should be introduced to protect against liability arising from COVID-19?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gowlingwlg.com


You could actually read the bill, instead of advocacy websites.
I'll translate, if you made a good faith effort to follow the guidance from public health, or the applicable laws, you're not liable, unless it was gross negligence.









Supporting Ontario's Recovery and Municipal Elections Act, 2020


Bill 218 from Parliament 42 Session 1 of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario: Supporting Ontario's Recovery and Municipal Elections Act, 2020.




www.ola.org





"The _Supporting Ontario’s Recovery Act, 2020_ is enacted. Section 2 of the Act provides that no cause of action arises against any person as a direct or indirect result of an individual being or potentially being infected with or exposed to coronavirus (COVID-19) on or after March 17, 2020 as a direct or indirect result of an act or omission of the person if,

(a) at the relevant time, the person acted or made a good faith effort to act in accordance with,
(i) public health guidance relating to coronavirus (COVID-19) that applied to the person, and
(ii) any federal, provincial or municipal law relating to coronavirus (COVID-19) that applied to the person; and
(b) the act or omission of the person does not constitute gross negligence."


----------



## sags

It is pretty clear what the legislation says, and I think the law firms that I linked to have a pretty good understanding of what it means.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> It is pretty clear what the legislation says, and I think the law firms that I linked to have a pretty good understanding of what it means.


I agree, the legislation is clear.

I also agree that even a junior lawyer at a law firm is capable of understanding it. I also think they're capable of writing an article that furthers their political ideology.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> Ontario cases are exploding. It is already past time for a Province wide lock down.
> 
> If we don't get the pandemic under control, we too will experience the "COVID hell" that is projected for the US in the coming months.
> 
> Close the schools, lock down long term homes, close non-essential businesses. We must keep hospitals open and able to operate.
> 
> The first responders must be protected at all cost. There is no alternative option available.


shut down Toronto And Peel first for 2-4 weeks before locking down the whole province. Toronto gets more cases in 90 mins than my closest city (pop. 30,000) has had since this all started.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I really think a good advertising effort would probably work better. You figure out 3 or 4 areas of risk. I think we know what they are. For instance:

You start the ad with a person in an ICU ward being asked if they know where they might have contracted the virus. A quick memory forms and reminds them of a big family dinner/get together. Someone carving a turkey. 10 or 12 family members around a table. As they bring in the ventilator his wife adds in that "perhaps only the people that lived in that house should have been at that dinner". End of Ad. 

You do one for a house party. One for the workplace. One where a person takes off their mask and everything goes downhill after that. You could end each ad with a voice over that says "how many businesses need to close or schools need to shut down before we all start pulling together and doing the right thing".

Anyway, I am not an advertising guy but I can see the ads right now and I know they would have a positive effect if they were done right. People need to believe that the people they might invite to a party or get together may not actually want to do that. This is how minds get changed. It's how parties don't get started. It certainly would be cheaper and easier then locking everything down.


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## sags

I don't know.........as George Carlin once quipped.......

Think of the intelligence of the "average" person and then consider that half of the people are dumber than that.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> My guess is that they did not get very sick and I am of the opinion that if you don't have enough active virus in you to make you really sick, you probably don't shed enough to make others really sick either.


I don't think this is necessarily true.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Ontario cases are exploding. It is already past time for a Province wide lock down.
> 
> If we don't get the pandemic under control, we too will experience the "COVID hell" that is projected for the US in the coming months.
> 
> Close the schools, lock down long term homes, close non-essential businesses. We must keep hospitals open and able to operate.
> 
> The first responders must be protected at all cost. There is no alternative option available.


Toronto is closing indoor dining, gyms, event spaces and houses of worship for 28 days. The start of the second lock-down, folks.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I don't think this is necessarily true.


Not only is it not necessarily true, they've been very concerned about asymptomatic spreaders since the beginning.
That's why there is the 2wk min quarantine.


----------



## agent99

One BIG problem with Covid, is that it spawns these senseless discussions on-line.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> Toronto is closing indoor dining, gyms, event spaces and houses of worship for 28 days. The start of the second lock-down, folks.


Manitoba just started new restrictions as well. Except, they are leaving schools open.

BC seems on the brink so I expect BC to add new restrictions any day now.


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## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Manitoba just started new restrictions as well. Except, they are leaving schools open.


They locked it down pretty good this time. Starting thursday no social interactions with people outside your household, currently it's limited to 5.

Be interesting to see how long this takes or if it even works with so many cases now.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> They locked it down pretty good this time. Starting thursday no social interactions with people outside your household, currently it's limited to 5.
> 
> Be interesting to see how long this takes or if it even works with so many cases now.


What's the situation with take-out food? Can one still order food, pick up, and take it home?

I wish they had not waited so long. The doctors were warning that the hospital system was on the brink of overload.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> I don't think this is necessarily true.


But it is not necessarily not true either.

The way I see it is this. No two infections are the same. The initial dose of the infection will be the primary determinant of any persons future response to the infection. Most viruses are not of a sort, where once you are infected with "X" number of viruses, you would have the same outcome as if you were infected by 100x "X". In the former case one might have a sore throat and in the latter case one might need to get a ventilator put down their throat. That is how most viruses work.

Depending on the initial dose and depending on the immune systems of each person, an individual, after infection, will see a rising of viral load in their bodies. At some point it will peak and then decline. Two things would be observed in that graph. A peak, which is indicating maximum viral load. And time, which is indicating the overall time this person was infected.

In an asymptomatic person, they become infected and the virus grows to *INSIGNIFICANT LEVELS* and *QUICKLY* starts to get neutralized. In a person that is very ill. The virus obviously grows to *MUCH LARGER LEVELS* and *IT TAKES A LOT LONGER* for them to get rid of the virus.

Now in the two cases. Asymptomatic and symptomatic. The Asym. had very little virus and therefore would shed much less and just as important, they would be infectious for a much shorter period of time. The symptomatic infections would result in the opposite.

Do you see what I mean? The less sick a person gets should also reduce the number of people they will infect. It really is common sense. Think of a vaccine that creates immunity. If we had one of those I think we can all agree we would wipe this virus from our world quickly. But a vaccinated person can still take in virus. It is just that after they do that, their vaccinated immune system will keep it from growing to dangerous levels and therefore reduce the time it takes to get rid of it. Those two things keep it from being dangerous anymore. I see no reason why they still could not shed a virus or two, during the few days or even hours it takes for their body to neutralize it. But as you know, it creates no issues in our society. They simply don't have enough in them, for long enough to become a problem to others. That is pretty much the same description as a healthy 15 year old, who just tested positive but is not sick at all, if you ask me.


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## andrewf

A young person can be shedding a lot of virus and be asymptomatic. I don't know if there is evidence that asymptomatic cases are shedding less virus or for shorter time than symptomatic cases. As I understand it, the reason they are asymptomatic is more a result of the immune response than the amount of virus. A better regulated immune response does less damage to the host.


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## sags

The cases are rising globally. There is no doubt that opening up the economy revived the virus from very low transmission rates to record high transmission rates.

If we don't lock down now to protect essential workers, we will be dealing with a catastrophic situation in a few months.

The politicians are dragging their feet and failing to make the difficult decisions.


----------



## dubmac

some are thinking of elevating the risj from stage 2 to stage 3 and moving to distance learning in BC, & in parts of Ontario. Markets will likely decline in the coming weeks with news like this.


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## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> A young person can be shedding a lot of virus and be asymptomatic. I don't know if there is evidence that asymptomatic cases are shedding less virus or for shorter time than symptomatic cases.


Whatever a lot is, it will be a percentage of their viral load. Lower viral loads should see lower shedding. It's how most viruses work. If I had the evidence you are looking for I would have linked to it. I am just giving some common sense analysis.



andrewf said:


> As I understand it, the reason they are asymptomatic is more a result of the immune response than the amount of virus. A better regulated immune response does less damage to the host.


Yes. Their immune response reduced the viral loads from growing to dangerous, or even symptomatic levels. The issue of not having a better regulated immune response is more of an exception and/or an example of a person who just got way too high of initial dose compared to their ability to fight it. That said, if you have a bad bad heart or defective kidney or have severe diabetes or you are 95, it is possible that any level of virus intake could become a big problem.

I am speaking only about the fact that an ASYM. person should be less dangerous to others, then a SYMP. person, if only because they have the virus for shorter amounts of time, but the fact that it rarely grows to high levels, as well, is also quite beneficial to protecting others.

I have seen a few things with different viruses where this relationship is not quite black and white but for most viruses, it is how it works.

To MrMatts point, the fact that we tell a young asymptomatic person to quarantine for 14 days, does not mean they are as dangerous as a symptomatic who we also tell to quarantine for 14 days. They really do that to protect the exceptions or better stated, the very unhealthy people in our society. They worry about the guy with the bad heart. So for that I agree with the quarantine rules. I am just saying if your car has broken down and two cars pull over to give you a ride to the repair shop. One person is 22 and the other is about 42. The car with the 22 year old should be safer for you. That is all I am saying.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> What's the situation with take-out food? Can one still order food, pick up, and take it home?
> 
> I wish they had not waited so long. The doctors were warning that the hospital system was on the brink of overload.


Take out is still available here which is kind of odd as retail stores are only allowed curb-side pickup now. You'd think they'd limit it to drive-thru only but I guess they're not seeing transmission issues with that.

I think when they went to Red status with manditory mask a few weeks ago they had hoped it would make a difference ... obviously the masks alone did very little, our numbers are still climbing.


----------



## sags

CBC covered the Quebec reports and it sounds like they are content to try to maintain current levels of spread.

They then interviewed a specialist working in Montreal hospitals and he said he doubted that was enough with a flu season coming.

There will be 2 dangerous viruses circulating at the same time and he says hospitals could quickly become over capacity.

There is a lot of work involved in isolating patients from other patients, and attending to their needs, and we need the healthcare workers to stay healthy.

He recommends a total lock down as was done in Europe and other countries, but recognizes the economic hardship it would cause.

Either way isn't good, but it is becoming a choice between economics and life and death.

I believe that at some point the politicians will be forced by rising infections and dwindling healthcare resources to lock down.

It just seems inevitable to me.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> He recommends a total lock down as was done in Europe and other countries, but recognizes the economic hardship it would cause.
> 
> Either way isn't good, but it is becoming a choice between economics and life and death.


You say that like you think "economics" is some abstract thing, rather than the very systems that keep us alive.

Given the choice between COVID19 which will kill people, and a lockdown, which will kill people, you have to find the balance.

There is no question that
1. Letting COVID19 spread out of control will cost lives.
2. Implementing a lockdown strong enough to stop COVID19 will cost lives.

What our political leaders should do, is find a balance that minimizes damage.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> I think when they went to Red status with manditory mask a few weeks ago they had hoped it would make a difference ... obviously the masks alone did very little, our numbers are still climbing.


It would be very helpful if we could learn where the transmissions are happening. As I understand it, the current belief is that transmission was largely happening in private gatherings ... private settings at home, etc, where a few friends or family get together and obviously don't wear masks. There is a similar suspicion about BC's rising cases as well.

Example 1: mom & kids go to visit their family and everyone hangs out indoors, no masks

Example 2: a couple friends get together after work for drinks at someone's home, no masks of course


----------



## like_to_retire

james4beach said:


> As I understand it, the current belief is that transmission was largely happening in private gatherings ... private settings at home, etc, where a few friends or family get together and obviously don't wear masks.


If that's the case, it doesn't look too good when just about everyone in the country will be getting together under those circumstances at Christmas in 6 weeks.

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> If that's the case, it doesn't look too good when just about everyone in the country will be getting together under those circumstances at Christmas in 6 weeks.
> 
> ltr


I'm not sure it's families, but look at the data, cases surge 1-2 wks after a holiday.
The schools aren't helping either.


----------



## james4beach

like_to_retire said:


> If that's the case, it doesn't look too good when just about everyone in the country will be getting together under those circumstances at Christmas in 6 weeks.


That's right, I think it's a horrible idea to have family gatherings at Christmas. Very small gatherings, sure. But I don't think households should mix.

Around Thanksgiving, one member here from Manitoba posted that he has a Thanksgiving dinner with 10+ people. This was just before the MB numbers went exponential.

Quite honestly I now think that last spring was just a dress rehearsal.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> It would be very helpful if we could learn where the transmissions are happening.


Yes it would be interesting to see, at least a summary, of the case tracking. I do wonder how good their data is, as in, really showing actual transfer points with a high percentage of probability. I don't see much of this info available so I'd gather it is greatly open to interpretation (i.e. guess work) for many cases. Even a number of confirmed contact to non-confirmed would be good to see.

On a side note, just got back in from walking the dog by our local church and someone entered that building not wearing a mask. Guess they figure their believed authority is better than local laws lol.


----------



## like_to_retire

james4beach said:


> That's right, I think it's a horrible idea to have family gatherings at Christmas. Very small gatherings, sure. But I don't think households should mix.


This is the part that's always fuzzy. 

They say only households should get together. But does that include the grandparents coming over at Christmas? That's two households. Should the single sister of the hosts, along with the grandparents come over as they have for many, many years. These are direct family at Christmas. That's now three households.

They haven't spelled a lot of this out and in my opinion there's a pretty big crisis in the works. Either no-one gets together outside a household or it's then a free for all. What's different about grandparents coming over versus another non-family member household coming over?

ltr


----------



## cainvest

like_to_retire said:


> This is the part that's always fuzzy.
> 
> They say only households should get together. But does that include the grandparents coming over at Christmas? That's two households. Should the single sister of the hosts, along with the grandparents come over as they have for many, many years. These are direct family at Christmas. That's now three households.


For MB it's only people in your household so of course it doesn't include other households. In other words, if you don't live at the same address, stay away. Perfectly clear for me.


----------



## like_to_retire

cainvest said:


> For MB it's only people in your household so of course it doesn't include other households. In other words, if you don't live at the same address, stay away. Perfectly clear for me.


So is this the standard you will live by at Christmas?

ltr


----------



## like_to_retire

cainvest said:


> On a side note, just got back in from walking the dog by our local church and someone entered that building not wearing a mask.


I see this type of thing every day, in spades, and figure that most people just don't take it seriously.

Example #1. My house backs onto a hydro right of way where there are huge fields where everyone walks their dogs. I often watch them out my office window over the years, and nothing has changed. Three to five people standing around without masks, within a foot of each other, laughing and talking while their crazy dogs run around. Perfectly normal and wonderful scene except it doesn't really comply with social distancing standards....

Example #2. I go for my bike ride each day, and I pass by several high schools. The kids are required to wear masks and social distance while in school, but when they are on lunch, they walk around outside school property in groups as teenagers do, without masks, and laugh and wrestle and shove each other around just like that age group is suppose to do while they grow up.

Conclusion. We will never get all the people to comply with the mask and social distancing rules, and the only solution is a vaccine.

ltr


----------



## cainvest

like_to_retire said:


> So is this the standard you will live by at Christmas?
> 
> ltr


Absoutely, if it's not allowed then.


----------



## Money172375

What are the countries in Asia with low case counts doing differently? And Africa?


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> What are the countries in Asia with low case counts doing differently? And Africa?


I keep wondering the same, but I think it's most useful to look at first world countries with similar living standards to ours.

Good examples I think are Australia, Taiwan, South Korea


----------



## sags

Ontario Premier Ford was on the hot seat today. Ontario doctors are saying the benchmarks for the "stages" are too high and should be lowered significantly.

They say a lock down is necessary. Ford continues to resist and said his government is doing everything possible to avoid a total lock down.

It is a tough spot for him, but continuing to complain about the people violating the rules isn't working.

The cases and hospitalizations are rising quickly and ICU capacity is being filled up in some hospitals already.

Time to get off the fence and make the tough decision the doctors know is inevitable.

Lock everything down for 4 weeks and ask the Trudeau government for financial aid for people unable to work and businesses that must close.

Another big support package is required from Ottawa for all Canadians who need it.


----------



## sags

It is tragic that in these times many small businesses will be forced to close.

The small bit of good news is that the owners and operators know how to start and run a business and could re-open after the COVID has passed.

They may need financial support from the government to make it happen quickly, and they should get all the financial support they need to do it.

Until then......we have to stop this virus now.


----------



## OptsyEagle

like_to_retire said:


> So is this the standard you will live by at Christmas?
> 
> ltr


Christmas will be deadly this year. Easter and Thanksgiving were our last warnings. The perfect storm is brewing in my opinion. The deadliest infections will occur when the infected person is not wearing a mask and the others are in close proximity, indoors, for an extended period of time. That certainly sounds like Christmas to me. That is deadly.

With Easter and Thanksgiving we had one major benefit that few seem to be recognizing. Not many people were infected. By this Christmas, there will be lots of them. They will be everywhere. With mask use in the general population, more of them will be asymptomatic so you can never know who it is at your dinner. Lastly, not only are Christmas dinners probably longer then Easter and Thanksgiving, with possibly more people attending, but we get the added time, to spend in the proximity of the infected source, when we add in the time it takes to open all the wonderful Christmas presents...and give the giver a big hug or kiss to show appreciation.

Christmas this year could very well be your gift that quits on giving. Luckily the deaths will happen in January so as not to ruin the special occasion.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ontario Premier Ford was on the hot seat today. Ontario doctors are saying the benchmarks for the "stages" are too high and should be lowered significantly.
> 
> They say a lock down is necessary. Ford continues to resist and said his government is doing everything possible to avoid a total lock down.
> 
> It is a tough spot for him, but continuing to complain about the people violating the rules isn't working.
> 
> The cases and hospitalizations are rising quickly and ICU capacity is being filled up in some hospitals already.
> 
> Time to get off the fence and make the tough decision the doctors know is inevitable.
> 
> Lock everything down for 4 weeks and ask the Trudeau government for financial aid for people unable to work and businesses that must close.
> 
> Another big support package is required from Ottawa for all Canadians who need it.


The health units are free to enact stricter restrictions if they think the local situation requires it.
Not everything need to come from the Premier.

Let local authorities do their job.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I keep wondering the same, but I think it's most useful to look at first world countries with similar living standards to ours.
> 
> Good examples I think are Australia, Taiwan, South Korea


Their approach has been significantly different.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> The health units are free to enact stricter restrictions if they think the local situation requires it.
> Not everything need to come from the Premier.
> 
> Let local authorities do their job.


The response to COVID has to be uniform and consistent or it doesn't work. Only a top down mandate will achieve that.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Their approach has been significantly different.


What can we learn from those countries?

Australia has it somewhat easy, because they're an island and can truly isolate themselves. But they also had far greater restrictions than we have here. They restricted travel between states, something we didn't really do in Canada.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Lock everything down for 4 weeks......


Just in time so that in 6 weeks we can all get together at Christmas and start the cycle all over again?

ltr


----------



## like_to_retire

OptsyEagle said:


> Christmas will be deadly this year.


Completely agree.

ltr


----------



## Beaver101

New modelling warns that Ontario could see 3,000 to 6,000 daily cases of COVID-19 by mid-December



> ...
> The modelling also warns that if cases grow at three per cent going forward, Ontario will see their average daily counts exceed 2,000 by Nov. 25 and top 3,000 by mid-December.
> 
> In a more pessimistic scenario of five per cent growth, the modelling says that Ontario will see its daily case counts top 3,000 by Nov. 27 and exceed 6,000 by mid-December. ...


 ... it's beyond me why Ontario or Toronto particularly is not going into a lock-down if these are the expected numbers ... double & triple the current "modified Stage 2" or multiple-coloured, hard to decipher or just plain confusing "thresholds". Talk about inept "experts" from the ministry and public health. Are they going to take a wait & see approach or wait until those numbers are at the door before actually taking the necessary action? 

Just last week or 2 weeks ago, Ms. Elliott stated the numbers were coming down ... WTF.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> Christmas will be deadly this year. Easter and Thanksgiving were our last warnings. The perfect storm is brewing in my opinion.


I agree.

There is absolutely no way I will be visiting my parents for Christmas. I would have to fly to see them ... no way.


----------



## sags

Ford has been warned just today by the experts. He just doesn't want to listen and instead whines and cries about people breaking the rules.

"Come on people" isn't going to slow the pandemic. I don't like the idea of lock downs either......but we got no choice that I can see.

Long term care home cases are rising. Schools are becoming infected. Businesses are ignoring the rules. ......."come on Doug".

A co-worker of my wife called in sick at the retirement home, so she had to take a COVID test and get the results before returning.

It has been 3 days and she won't be coming to work tomorrow either. Imagine a scenario where a nursing home would face worker shortages again.

The government has to take whatever drastic measures necessary to dampen the virus spread or everything is going to fall apart.


----------



## sags

Just a reminder of the first post on this thread 9 months ago.

_The coronavirus appears to be spreading very quickly. Hospitals in China are over capacity.

The US State Department has closed their embassy and is evacuating their diplomats and staff and other Americans who want to leave.

President Xi is warning of a dire situation as the virus is spreading faster than expected.

There is a lot of activity underway.....they are building 2 new hospitals in a matter of weeks, quarantined millions of people, established checkpoints, banned travel, shut down the transportation system and many international brands such as McDonalds have closed their doors._

Clearly Trump and his administration knew the virus was very serious, highly infectious and spreading. President Xi issued the warning and the US State Department closed their embassy and evacuated. US businesses in China closed their doors. China banned travel. This all happened before Trump did anything in response to the warnings. Trump didn't take it seriously or warn Americans what was coming. He blames China....but they did warn him.


----------



## sags

Locally, a church congregation held a public demonstration of anti-masking and now another one is planning one.

Isn't there a law about public nuisance or something........that these idiots can be charged under ?


----------



## Money172375

My sons idea.......give everybody 7-10 days notice to stock up and shut it all down for 4 weeks. All retail closed except grocery And take out dining. Only one family member allowed inside a store. 

do you remember when the Home Depots and Canadian Tires were closed? We need to go back to that. While transmission might not be happening in retail.....it sends a message that things are serious. 

6000 predicted cases a day in Ontario? Even the 1500 we had today isn’t worrying the average person. we were more worried and more concerned back in April.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Their approach has been significantly different.


How so?


----------



## james4beach

I'm all for strict enforcement but it also has to target the right areas. I don't think that grocery stores or hardware stores are the problem. Hopefully someone is studying this, but my impression is that people with masks at grocery stores and most retailers are not causing any spread.

But, restaurants and bars (eating and drinking and yapping and spitting) ... absolutely high risk

Religious gatherings, weddings, funerals, group gatherings ... absolutely high risk

Gyms, dance studios, kids sports and activities ... absolutely high risk

Travel between provinces ... absolutely high risk (what happens when AB or MB people go to SK?)


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> I'm all for strict enforcement but it also has to target the right areas. I don't think that grocery stores or hardware stores are the problem. Hopefully someone is studying this, but my impression is that people with masks at grocery stores and most retailers are not causing any spread.


That's the problem with armchair quarterbacking this ... we don't have access to contact data. Sure we can guess as to what "we" think is the common spread points but we could be way off. About all we can do is listen to the health guidelines and extrapolate from that. Of course they'll be biased towards trying to balance a working society and containment so some areas of higher spread many not get shut down as fast as some lower spread points because it effects less people.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The response to COVID has to be uniform and consistent or it doesn't work. Only a top down mandate will achieve that.


The problem isn't uniform, so the response shouldn't be uniform.
they're trying to achieve that.

There is no reason that some rural city with no cases should have the same restrictions as a major center with a significant number of cases per capita.

Top down, authoritarian mandate, ignoring the actual circumstances on the ground.
That's a BAD idea and undemocratic.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I'm all for strict enforcement but it also has to target the right areas. I don't think that grocery stores or hardware stores are the problem. Hopefully someone is studying this, but my impression is that people with masks at grocery stores and most retailers are not causing any spread.
> 
> But, restaurants and bars (eating and drinking and yapping and spitting) ... absolutely high risk
> 
> Religious gatherings, weddings, funerals, group gatherings ... absolutely high risk
> 
> Gyms, dance studios, kids sports and activities ... absolutely high risk
> 
> Travel between provinces ... absolutely high risk (what happens when AB or MB people go to SK?)


I agree completely.

I do have one thing with kids though, the lockdown has been incredibly hard on them, the risk to them is incredibly low.
As long as the community rates are low I think and their parents/guardians are okay with it, higher degrees of interaction should be permitted.

Myself, I'd be glad to sit at home and not deal with anyone.


----------



## sags

People are mobile. Shutting in one area and leaving one a few miles away open doesn't work.

The second wave of the virus is worse than the first wave. Partial measures isn't going to keep it contained.

It isn't just kids in the schools. There are teachers, education aides, janitors, principals, secretaries, other parents.....and the kids don't live at school.

Schools are spreading the virus in the community.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> People are mobile. Shutting in one area and leaving one a few miles away open doesn't work.
> 
> The second wave of the virus is worse than the first wave. Partial measures isn't going to keep it contained.
> 
> It isn't just kids in the schools. There are teachers, education aides, janitors, principals, secretaries, other parents.....and the kids don't live at school.
> 
> Schools are spreading the virus in the community.


Yes, and we know your answer is an indefinate lockdown.

Sorry buddy, but they blew their chance back in March, when we knew less and the data was terrifying.

We know now that COVID19 isn't as bad as it looked back then, there is more organized opposition and we see "COVID19 fatigue"

We are not a police state, we don't have the resources to forcibly lock down the country. We're still a democracy, and a populist like Trudeau knows he can't stay in power if he ignores the will of the people.


----------



## sags

_In China, after 85,000 cases and nearly 5,000 deaths, the country's case count is now estimated at 400 in a population of 1.3 billion. That's about the same number as Toronto reported on a single day this week. _



https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/coronavirus-lockdown-business-pittis-1.5798672


----------



## sags

_We know now that COVID19 isn't as bad as it looked back then, there is more organized opposition and we see "COVID19 fatigue" _

You are right......it is worse than it was back then. We are setting daily records of infections and hospitalizations and deaths will follow.

Do we want to be like the disaster unfolding in the US ? They are paying a dear price for their "rights" to infect others.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> _We know now that COVID19 isn't as bad as it looked back then, there is more organized opposition and we see "COVID19 fatigue" _
> 
> You are right......it is worse than it was back then. We are setting daily records of infections and hospitalizations and deaths will follow.
> 
> Do we want to be like the disaster unfolding in the US ? They are paying a dear price for their "rights" to infect others.


We thought it would be a higher fatality rate, but it isn't as bad.

We had the same leadership failure as the US, just to a lesser extent.

Trudeau failed to close the borders and implement proper quarantine and screening procedures.
Dr Tam lied to us.
Provinces followed those half assed approaches to the pandemic.

I do think that Trudeau & the provinces did a good number of things right, and overall we did better than most western nations. However there were some significant failures. Even today they're allowing international flights without proper quarantines.


----------



## sags

The Premiers don't want any incursion by the Federal government into their jurisdiction. Ford told a reporter that yesterday in the press conference.

It is up to the Premiers to lock down and the Federal government can provide financial support.

It will likely cost another $500 billion in financial supports to Canadians before we get to a widespread vaccine distribution and that is optimistic.

Better to spend the money keeping people safe than spending it on trying to keep them alive in overflowing ICU beds.

Trading lives for the DOW.......isn't acceptable to Canadians.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The Premiers don't want any incursion by the Federal government into their jurisdiction. Ford told a reporter that yesterday in the press conference.
> ....
> 
> Better to spend the money keeping people safe than spending it on trying to keep them alive in overflowing ICU beds.
> 
> *Trading lives for the DOW.......isn't acceptable to Canadians.*


 ... except for money-mongering mindsets. And there're plenty of those folks in Canada with that. The short-term gain (for self) for long-term pain (on everyone else).


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The Premiers don't want any incursion by the Federal government into their jurisdiction. Ford told a reporter that yesterday in the press conference.
> 
> It is up to the Premiers to lock down and the Federal government can provide financial support.
> 
> It will likely cost another $500 billion in financial supports to Canadians before we get to a widespread vaccine distribution and that is optimistic.
> 
> Better to spend the money keeping people safe than spending it on trying to keep them alive in overflowing ICU beds.
> 
> Trading lives for the DOW.......isn't acceptable to Canadians.


The federal government still hasn't closed the borders, and still hasn't ensured adequate quarantines.

Nobody is seriously advocating trading lives for the DOW, do you even know what the DOW is?


----------



## sags

_Temporary *Canada*-U.S. *border* restrictions for all non-discretionary travel came into effect on March 21, 2020 and have been renewed until November 21, 2020. There are some exemptions to the travel restrictions, including immediate and extended family members of *Canadian* citizens and permanent residents. 

*To* protect Canadians from the outbreak of COVID-19, the Prime Minister announced *travel* restrictions that limit *travel to Canada*. Until further notice, most *foreign* nationals cannot *travel to Canada*, even if they have a valid visitor visa or electronic *travel* authorization 









Sacrificing American lives on the altar of the Dow Jones


None of us should be willing to sacrifice American lives on the altar of the Dow Jones, allowing older Americans to die if it means we can have a strong economy again.




thehill.com




_


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> _Temporary *Canada*-U.S. *border* restrictions for all non-discretionary travel came into effect on March 21, 2020 and have been renewed until November 21, 2020. There are some exemptions to the travel restrictions, including immediate and extended family members of *Canadian* citizens and permanent residents.
> 
> *To* protect Canadians from the outbreak of COVID-19, the Prime Minister announced *travel* restrictions that limit *travel to Canada*. Until further notice, most *foreign* nationals cannot *travel to Canada*, even if they have a valid visitor visa or electronic *travel* authorization
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sacrificing American lives on the altar of the Dow Jones
> 
> 
> None of us should be willing to sacrifice American lives on the altar of the Dow Jones, allowing older Americans to die if it means we can have a strong economy again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thehill.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _


I saw the press release and the conferences
They never locked down, they never enforced the quarantine.








Air Canada promoting ‘leisure’ travel to U.S. despite advisories warning against non-essential trips - National | Globalnews.ca


Even as coronavirus cases surge in the U.S., Air Canada is promoting 'leisure and business' flights to see 'friends and relatives.'




globalnews.ca





Lots of people continued international travel, and the government wasn't even informing people of the need to quarantine back in March.

They are lying to you.

Also i think it's pretty rich that when Trudeau fails to fufil Federal responsibilities, that's "the provinces job", but when Trump refuses to infringe on states rights, that's "a lack of leadership".

Secondly I think it actually is the provinces job, but the Federal government should provide clear standards.
Also specific to the Federal government, they must control the borders and enforce the quarantine act. Which they are not doing very well.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Interesting response.

So just how do you know or so absolutely sure that:



> _They never locked down, they never enforced the quarantine_.


 and thus,



> They are lying to you.


Facts / evidence (based on your style/requirements) please.


----------



## Beaver101

‘Just the tip of the iceberg’: Toronto officials urge people to avoid unnecessary contact with others as COVID-19 numbers soar



> Mayor John Tory and Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa are urging the city’s residents to avoid unnecessary interactions with people they don’t live with as COVID-19 case numbers continue to soar in the city.
> 
> “My message with respect to COVID is very blunt and very simple. Please stay home,” Tory said at a news conference Thursday. “Please don’t socialize with people that you don’t live with, please don’t have people over. Please stay home except if you have to go to work or to school or to pick up some essentials or to exercise.” ...


 ... man, the social mammals must be suffocating at home.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Interesting response.
> 
> So just how do you know or so absolutely sure that:
> 
> and thus,
> 
> 
> 
> Facts / evidence (based on your style/requirements) please.








Travel Restrictions Fact Sheet


March 21, 2020 - The United States will temporarily limit inbound land border crossings from Canada and Mexico to “essential travel”.




ca.usembassy.gov




*Q: What will this mean for airline travel and other travel across the border?

A: *This action does not apply to entry into the United States from Canada via air, rail, or sea travel at this time, but does apply to commuter rail and ferry travel.

So you can't drive, but you can fly or go by water.
They restricted some, but they didn't stop all unnecessary travel, which is my point.

That's actually part of the larger point, if they're willing to be misleading about things so easy to check, what about the things that are hard to check?
I have no confidence in the Trudeau government.
They are at best misleading the public, and the PM himself has committed multiple ethics breaches of varying severity.

In the early months, it could be excused as simple errors, but we're 9 months in and they STILL haven't stopped all non-essential travel. It's either overwhelming incompetence, or they just don't care.


----------



## MrMatt

FYI, I know of people who want to go to the US for non-essential reasons.
They fly to the US, have their trip, then they return to Canada.
This is a well known loophole.

To be fair, I've heard that the government has laid some charges under the quarantine act. 
But at this point it's been 9 months, they should physically enforce the quarantine.

Though some have labelled this "COVID Concentration Camps".


----------



## OptsyEagle

The elephant is in the room, it's very large and it is quite obvious. Indoor social gatherings are going to drive, not only infections much higher, but worse, they can easily produce the more dangerous high dose infections (hospitalizations and deaths) that is the real problem with Covid-19. Canadians need to understand this. Obviously, they currently do not. That is where the bullseye needs to be placed.

I suggested an ad campaign a few posts back, but of course that has to be done right. Just telling people to stay home and not interact does not work. We know that now. Even if we have breaking news stories of dead bodies being carted away in trucks, like they did in NYC (and we probably will), and even if that does cause some people to adjust their behavior, it is way too late then.

Why they are not coming out, right now, and telling people to assume Christmas this year can only be enjoyed with the people living in your own household, I have no idea. Why they don't simultaneously increase the fines dramatically to the homeowner at least (who is most likely the instigator here) I really can't explain. It is a mystery of the mind to me.

People will be planning their Family Christmas very soon, if they have not already done so. The Turkeys will be starting to move from the Grocery Store to Grandma's freezer as I write. They need to get in front of this. Christmas is going to be deadly this year. Why don't they make a real effort to stop it?


----------



## Beaver101

> ... Why don't they make a real effort to stop it?


 ... can't speak for other provinces but our Premier (ON) is now talking from 2 sides of his mouth. And our Mayor (TO) is a weakling, ducking the hard-lines so he can collect his pay (and the rest of city councill gang at cityhall). Typical expertises of "politicians".


----------



## Beaver101

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/everyone-just-wanted-hang-says-100100685.html ... a real Uni-educated Covidiot. Of course this me, myself & I Covidiot doesn't blame anyone that he caught it. And would he be really, truly sorry if some else caught it ... unlikely.

Now he goes home to quarantine and spread his "Covidlove" to his parents. Who can potentially end up clogging the hospital ICUs. A real jackass.


----------



## agent99

MrMatt said:


> Trudeau failed to close the borders and implement proper quarantine and screening procedures.
> Dr Tam lied to us.
> Provinces followed those half assed approaches to the pandemic.


The pandemic is a serious health threat to all Canadians and everyone else as well.

Why use a discussion of the pandemic to put forward personal political views? And a lot of mis-information.

I have had enough. Click.


----------



## MrMatt

agent99 said:


> The pandemic is a serious health threat to all Canadians and everyone else as well.
> 
> Why use a discussion of the pandemic to put forward personal political views? And a lot of mis-information.
> 
> I have had enough. Click.


"personal political views"

Like we should close our borders to non-essential travel, and enforce a 2 week quarantine?
Not really a partisan or even political position.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Travel Restrictions Fact Sheet
> 
> 
> March 21, 2020 - The United States will temporarily limit inbound land border crossings from Canada and Mexico to “essential travel”.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ca.usembassy.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Q: What will this mean for airline travel and other travel across the border?
> 
> A: *This action does not apply to entry into the United States from Canada via air, rail, or sea travel at this time, but does apply to commuter rail and ferry travel.
> 
> So you can't drive, but you can fly or go by water.
> They restricted some, but they didn't stop all unnecessary travel, which is my point ...


Air seems to be the sure bet.

What's available that isn't commuter rail or isn't a ferry travel?


On a side note, it gets stranger and stranger with each detail. 


Cheers


----------



## sags

Canadians can fly to the US, but Americans can't fly to Canada. The US should close the loophole, but Canada can't force them to.

Canadians returning from the US by any means are required to self isolate for 14 days.

Canada trusts it's citizens to make adult decisions. Maybe the trust is misplaced, but it is doubtful locking Canadians up for 14 days would be acceptable.

There is no evidence the current upswing is being driven by incoming Canadians. It is community spread in large gatherings.

That is why lock downs are coming. Stock up on supplies. We may see the rush on food and supplies again.


----------



## sags

The odds of 1 person in a group of 10 in Nebraska or North Dakota having COVID......86%

What would be the odds of 1 person in a group of 10 being COVID positive in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba ?

It might be good for the government to calculate it and make it public. It might make people think of avoiding large groups of people.

There is a US website created by Georgia Tech that covers the US.









COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool






covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Canadians can fly to the US, but Americans can't fly to Canada. The US should close the loophole, but Canada can't force them to.
> 
> Canadians returning from the US by any means are required to self isolate for 14 days.
> 
> Canada trusts it's citizens to make adult decisions. Maybe the trust is misplaced, but it is doubtful locking Canadians up for 14 days would be acceptable.
> 
> There is no evidence the current upswing is being driven by incoming Canadians. It is community spread in large gatherings.
> 
> That is why lock downs are coming. Stock up on supplies. We may see the rush on food and supplies again.


The 14 day quarantine isn't being enforced.


----------



## sags

We could lock them up in Trudeau's basement.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> The 14 day quarantine isn't being enforced.


And how do you suggest they do that?


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> The odds of 1 person in a group of 10 in Nebraska or North Dakota having COVID......86%
> 
> What would be the odds of 1 person in a group of 10 being COVID positive in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba ?
> 
> It might be good for the government to calculate it and make it public. It might make people think of avoiding large groups of people.
> 
> There is a US website created by Georgia Tech that covers the US.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu


The Toronto Star was publishing something which showed the odds of being exposed depending on the size of the group you’re interacting with. Of course I can’t find it now, and I’m getting frustrated with their paywalls.


----------



## sags

The math is amazing, how the % skyrockets upwards as you include more people in the group. At some point it hits a 100% probability someone has COVID.


----------



## Spudd

sags said:


> The math is amazing, how the % skyrockets upwards as you include more people in the group. At some point it hits a 100% probability someone has COVID.


Well, of course it does, at some point the number of people in the group is the whole world's population.


----------



## like_to_retire

Spudd said:


> Well, of course it does, at some point the number of people in the group is the whole world's population.


Yeah, duh.............

ltr


----------



## sags

Yea, it is more like if you have a few more people added to the group, the % could go to 100%

It looks like in many areas, any events of 50 or more are at 100% probability of someone infected being among them.

That is a pretty good explanation of why so many events and gatherings are included in the lock down protocols.

1 in 32 Americans have been infected with COVID, and that number will continue to rise.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> The Toronto Star was publishing something which showed the odds of being exposed depending on the size of the group you’re interacting with. Of course I can’t find it now, and I’m getting frustrated with their paywalls.


Yes it's an interesting mathematical effect. Here's how I think it works based on lecture notes here. Notation is P() which means probability of.

P(at least one person has COVID in a room) = 1 - P(nobody has COVID)

What is the probability that NOBODY in a room has COVID? Let me define: _pos_ = positivity rate in society

The probability that ANY given person does not have COVID = (1 - _pos_)
And the probability that multiple _N_ people don't have COVID = (1 - _pos_) ^ _N
... that last calculation with the exponential is calculating the odds that multiple people are ALL covid-free_

And so,
​P(at least one person in a room has COVID)​= 1 - P(nobody has COVID)​= 1 - (1 - _positivity_) ^ _N_​​
Let's try it out. In North Dakota the positivity rate pos=0.19. @sags mentioned 10 people in a room. Then we have
P(at least one person has COVID in a room) = 1 - (1-0.19)^10 = 88%

Which is more or less what sags said in his post. He wrote 86% and I get 88% here

///////////////////////////////

Another example. Say you're in Winnipeg and the positivity rate is 12%. You do a religious service and put 15 people in a room.

The probability that someone in the room has COVID
= 1 - (1 - 0.12)^15 = 85%

So there's an 85% chance that someone in the room has COVID.

Reduce the size of the Winnipeg gathering to 10 people, and the chance drops to 72% ... still awfully high!
5 people ... 47% chance
3 people ... 32% chance
2 people ... 23% chance


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Yea, it is more like if you have a few more people added to the group, the % could go to 100%
> 
> It looks like in many areas, any events of 50 or more are at 100% probability of someone infected being among them.


Easily demonstrated. Let's say it's Winnipeg where the positivity rate is 12% or 0.12 of all people have COVID.

With 30 people in a room, the probability that someone in the room has COVID
= 1 - (1-0.12)^30 = 98%

So in Winnipeg, when you get 30 people in a room there's 98% chance someone has COVID.

If you have trouble with this, think of the inverse: the probability that everyone in a room is COVID-free. The probability of one person being COVID-free is (1-0.12) = 0.88. If you have two people, the probability they are both COVID-free is 0.88*0.88. And with 30 people, the probability they are all COVID-free is 0.88^30 = 0.02


----------



## sags

Cool........

So if a church decides to rebel against the outrageous limitations to their freedom to congregate together once a week, and they started with 100 people, there would be at least 1 of them who was infected and spreading COVID to the 99.

At an infection rate of X....and a hospitalization rate of X....and a death rate of X....how many weeks could they hold services before the preacher was looking at empty pews ?


----------



## sags

If the above sounds ridiculous and preposterous........check out the latest musings by SCOTUS Justice Alito regarding COVID restricting religious services.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> What would be the odds of 1 person in a group of 10 being COVID positive in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba ?


One issue to consider is that ON and QC are big provinces, and individual regions can have very different positivity rates. The calculations below are just for the whole province, but some areas are much worse. I couldn't find statistics for Quebec.

*ONTARIO*

Positivity rate = 4.5% up to 5.7% recently so let's use the more conservative 0.057
We're calculating 1 - P(nobody has COVID) = 1 - (1-0.057)^10 = 44%

In an Ontario gathering of 10 people, there is a 44% chance that someone has COVID

*MANITOBA*

Calculated in above post ... in a Manitoba gathering of 10 people, there's a 72% chance that someone has COVID


----------



## sags

Eye opening when you look at that way.

Maybe if those numbers were published every day on the local news......people would think twice about getting together in a group.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Eye opening when you look at that way.
> 
> Maybe if those numbers were published every day on the local news......people would think twice about getting together in a group.


take my numbers with a grain of salt, I've been playing poker and drinking. But my calculation does match your initial North Dakota figure, which seems to confirm the method is right.

PS, won $13 in poker today, Friday 13th. (yes it's all remote video chat)


----------



## sags

LOL.......I lost $50 today playing OLG slots online.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Eye opening when you look at that way.
> 
> Maybe if those numbers were published every day on the local news......people would think twice about getting together in a group.


sags this has an interesting relationship to investing, actually. In both cases, you're dealing with exponential calculations.

Humans don't have an intuitive grasp of exponentials. It's the reason compound returns always surprise people, or it's shocking what happens when money grows in the stock market for decades.

The same effect is here in the "probability that someone in a room has COVID". As humans we don't have an intuitive grasp of these odds... the numbers surprised me too.


----------



## sags

Yup....and that is why people don't put $100 a week away and invest it and forget it. They think it will never amount to much. Interest on interest on interest....

A lot of people also don't understand the different ways interest can be calculated on a debt. The Rule of 78 means they pay the bulk of the interest in the first years and if they pay the debt off in the last year, they might as well not bother and just pay the monthly payment. The bulk of the interest has already been paid. If you are going to pay off debt.......the earlier the better when the interest is compounding.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Easily demonstrated. Let's say it's Winnipeg where the positivity rate is 12% or 0.12 of all people have COVID.
> 
> With 30 people in a room, the probability that someone in the room has COVID
> = 1 - (1-0.12)^30 = 98%
> 
> So in Winnipeg, when you get 30 people in a room there's 98% chance someone has COVID.


You do know the positivity rate is not based on the entire MB population but the number of people tested right?

In other words, your numbers are waaaaayyyyy off.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> You do know the positivity rate is not based on the entire MB population but the number of people tested right?
> 
> In other words, your numbers are waaaaayyyyy off.


Well you're right. The positivity rate is 11.6% which is # of people found to be positive divided by the number of people tested. Yes it's based on the people who are tested and only applies to the people tested.

I was using it as an estimate of how much of the broad population has COVID. It's the only measure we have; we don't have any other measures. The true rate may be higher or lower but I was thinking it would be in the same ballpark.

I went searching and reading some sources and ... as you say .... they note that this measure I used is an "unreliable" way to approximate how prevalent COVID is in the broad population.

I guess we have no idea what % of the whole population has it. That's unfortunate.

We know that even with more testing, we keep finding *more* people who are positive (rising positivity number). That's really not good.

But all it shows is that the spread is increasing and doesn't tell us what % of EVERYONE has it.


----------



## james4beach

But @cainvest and @sags even though the numbers I were quoting were inaccurate, this may be useful:



https://review.chicagobooth.edu/public-policy/2020/article/what-percentage-population-has-contracted-covid-19



This US study tried to calculate the true prevalance rate. In New York State, mid April, the prevalance rate was estimated between 11% and 18%. For comparison, the positivity rate in mid April for NY state was around 35%

So I guess the good news there is that the prevalance rate (what we really want to know) was lower than the positivity rate. But not tremendously different, it should be noted.

Like with 30% positivity rate, the prevalance rate wasn't 1% or something. It was closer to 15%.

Perhaps with MB at 12% positivity rate, maybe the rate of prevalance is in the single digits.


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> take my numbers with a grain of salt, I've been playing poker and drinking. But my calculation does match your initial North Dakota figure, which seems to confirm the method is right.
> 
> PS, won $13 in poker today, Friday 13th. (yes it's all remote video chat)


How is video poker played?


----------



## OptsyEagle

The day we move to the time where there is a 98% chance that someone in your gathering already has C-19, it would be a few days after the entire Covid-19 battle has already been lost. Herd immunity would be coming for us and there would be nothing we could do about it. Herd immunity may sound good but of course that will cost millions of lives for us to enjoy...at least if we get there the natural way. I am not sure what the number will be, where we might as well raise our white flags of surrender and give up our elderly for sacrifice, but my guess is somewhere around 10 to 15% of population infected and this fight is over. We have lost. In the US that's not all that far away. If they keep up what they are doing, they will be there by next year for sure. Possibly by summer. 

Positivity rates can also be very misleading. They are probably the only number, that is published, that gives a glimpse of the active cases around us, but since positivity rates are a function of test results and current test results are far from random, they will be over estimating population infections, by a large amount. Some tests are done on an almost random basis but quite a few are done on a person with symptoms, or someone close to someone who tested positive or health care workers, etc. That sample is not a random sample and therefore positivity rates really don't tell you enough to see how close we are to the above.

Random anti-body testing is probably the only possible way for us to know how many infectious people are walking around in our neighbourhood. Even if they are doing some of that, and I think they are, they are certainly keeping the information to themselves.


----------



## OptsyEagle

With the above said, since it appears the US and possibly the world, may be heading towards forced herd immunity, there is one last hope for the many citizens who are vulnerable to Covid-19. When I say forced herd immunity I am talking about the tipping point where there are so many infections that even with a traditional lockdown, infections will still continue on. That happens when there are just too many infected people around to stop it. Forced herd immunity. That's my term. There is probably a better name for it out there.

My hope, and I have discussed this point a few times, with lots of backlash, but I will mention it again. Since we implemented the request for precautions: Social distancing, mask wearing, more hand washing, etc., one can be assured that the number of asymptomatic infections will rise compared to symptomatic, when compared when no precautions are taken. This is because "precautions" not only can help you prevent infection, but when they fail (assuming the person is using them) they usually result in a lower dose infection. That is what asymptomatic infections are. Lower dose infections.

My hope then, is that an asymptomatic person is less infectious then an average symptomatic person. I already know that is the case, from other viral research, and I have seen no such contradiction with covid-19, except a few board members fighting it because from the beginning the idea of asymptomatic infections scared them. Not sure why. Those are the good ones, but without microB experience and with the media making them sound like a scary thing because now we had these infectious invisible monsters in our lives. OK. Fine. The question is, how infectious are they? That question comes down to these 3 questions: How easily do they infect people (how much virus are they shedding)? How long do they continue to infect people? and How sick do the people who they infect get?

Of course the answer to the last 3 questions above is unknown and considering all the exceptions, one will find results all over the spectrum. My guess is they don't shed as much as symptomatic cases and therefore don't infect as many people. They certainly don't infect people for the same amount of time as a symptomatic person does. More importantly, since they probably shed less virus, the infected people from those infections will probably have a fairly mild outcome as well. Much more milder then if they were infected by a more concentrated symptomatic case. I don't have a study to prove all this, but I do know most viruses work in a similar way and I have seen nothing yet that tells me C-19 does not work this way. If it does, then our precautions should save 100,000s of lives if things do get closer to forced herd immunity.

In many ways an asymptomatic infected person is almost the same as a vaccinated person. They are still infectious, so that difference is there, but in all other categories they have now been vaccinated and I am not sure they are gravely infectious. Since their infectious state is usually fairly short, they cannot be as bad as symptomatic infections as it relates to fighting the pandemic.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Wow. This is getting ugly in Ontario. 

COVID-19 case data: All Ontario (note this data updates everyday).

1581 new infections in Ontario. More importantly, 50 new hospitalizations, increasing that number by over 10% in one day. Worse, if you add most of the 20 deaths, assuming they died in the hospital, hospitalizations went up closer to 70 admissions yesterday alone.

This is getting ugly.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> I was using it as an estimate of how much of the broad population has COVID. It's the only measure we have; we don't have any other measures. The true rate may be higher or lower but I was thinking it would be in the same ballpark.


The true infection rate for the population should be much, much lower.

All that number really tells us is, say for 10%, is 1 out of 10 people with cold like symtoms, that got tested had covid. But what is also important is the number of tests performed. Bottom line, it's a simple indicator that really can't be used for much.

Example ... more people might be getting tested soon (we only test symptomatic people) because the flu (or common cold) is going around. If so, this would push down the positivity number for covid as more people with the flu/cold would get tested.



james4beach said:


> I went searching and reading some sources and ... as you say .... they note that this measure I used is an "unreliable" way to approximate how prevalent COVID is in the broad population.
> 
> I guess we have no idea what % of the whole population has it. That's unfortunate.
> 
> We know that even with more testing, we keep finding *more* people who are positive (rising positivity number). That's really not good.
> 
> But all it shows is that the spread is increasing and doesn't tell us what % of EVERYONE has it.


The only real number one can use is active cases. Of course one can extrapolate, with an unknown error amount, that the active case count is only showing half of the true number of currently infected. So given that, make a guesstimate on 6300-12600 people in MB current have covid and compare that to the population of MB for a simple number.


----------



## andrewf

James, I think the positivity rate is among those who are tested, not the general population. There is good reason to expect the rate among those tested to be much higher than the general population positivity rate. I think you demonstrated why testing centres need to be very careful with having people wait in line for a long time with other people trying to get tested.


----------



## sags

Ontario is reaching the out of control zone.

We just can't handle a significant increase in hospitalizations. That is the reality regardless of what anyone else says.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> James, I think the positivity rate is among those who are tested, not the general population. There is good reason to expect the rate among those tested to be much higher than the general population positivity rate. I think you demonstrated why testing centres need to be very careful with having people wait in line for a long time with other people trying to get tested.


Positivity rate is among those tested.
But you can use it to make gueses on how bad it is in the community.

Ontario hasn't had physical in person lineups that I'm aware of.
It's always been car lines, or take a ticket and go away until they call you. Or by appointment.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Positivity rate is among those tested.
> But you can use it to make gueses on how bad it is in the community.


Actually I'd say positivity rate is a bad indicator to use, likely better to just use a 5 day rolling average of the daily new case counts for judging if we are getting better or worse.


----------



## sags

*"We're not looking down the barrel at a lockdown,*" said Toronto-based physician epidemiologist Dr. Nitin Mohan. *"A lockdown is inevitable." *

Meanwhile, snowbirds are planning on going south, right into a catastrophic situation in the US.

Some say their medical insurance has been reinstated, so they aren't worried.

Good......if they get sick they should just stay there. I wonder if some are the same ones the government had to rescue before.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/snowbirds-seniors-travel-advisory-canada-u-s-border-covid-19-1.5799456


----------



## sags

Getting a test is a bit of a hassle, but getting the results is a bigger hassle. A co-worker of my wife was off all week waiting for a result.


----------



## sags

Why anyone would try to downplay the virus is beyond me. The evidence is right there in front of our eyes and they still don't believe it.

Don't believe their lying eyes syndrome ?


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> *"We're not looking down the barrel at a lockdown,*" said Toronto-based physician epidemiologist Dr. Nitin Mohan. *"A lockdown is inevitable." *
> 
> Meanwhile, snowbirds are planning on going south, right into a catastrophic situation in the US.
> 
> Some say their medical insurance has been reinstated, so they aren't worried.
> 
> Good......if they get sick they should just stay there. I wonder if some are the same ones the government had to rescue before.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/snowbirds-seniors-travel-advisory-canada-u-s-border-covid-19-1.5799456


 ... I say "good luck" to these die-hard snow-birds.


----------



## sags

They could get stuck there, if the Biden administration clamps down on the virus.

Given the circumstances in the US, I was surprised to read that travel medical insurance has been re-initiated.

There may be an abrupt halt to that as well. Some of the bills from severely ill COVID patients is reaching $1 million US dollars.


----------



## Spudd

sags said:


> Getting a test is a bit of a hassle, but getting the results is a bigger hassle. A co-worker of my wife was off all week waiting for a result.


It might depend on your region. I got tested on Monday last week and had my results by Wednesday. (Ontario, small town.)


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> James, I think the positivity rate is among those who are tested, not the general population. There is good reason to expect the rate among those tested to be much higher than the general population positivity rate. I think you demonstrated why testing centres need to be very careful with having people wait in line for a long time with other people trying to get tested.


But I showed in #3,203 the example from NY state. The true rate was not that much lower. In that case it turned out to about 1/2 the positivity rate.

If a similar relationship holds in certain GTA regions, that would mean positivity rate around 10% and actual rate of disease in the population of maybe something like 5%

I would say, don't be too quick to dismiss the positivity rate. It does relate to the actual rate of disease in population with some scaling factor. When you see 12% positivity rate it gives us a clue about the true rate ... we know it's not just 1% or something.



cainvest said:


> The true infection rate for the population should be much, much lower.


Lower yes, but the rates are still related. There's just some constant multiplier in play.

If we get to the point where a province has something like 30% positivity rate, in that case even though real disease rate among broad population is lower, we can still guess it's > 10%... maybe something 'on the order of' 10%. That's useful to know because you can guess at how many people around you have the disease.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Positivity rate is among those tested.
> But you can use it to make gueses on how bad it is in the community.
> 
> Ontario hasn't had physical in person lineups that I'm aware of.
> It's always been car lines, or take a ticket and go away until they call you. Or by appointment.


There have been in person lineups. At least judging by the stories on the tv news. I would think probably in Toronto where not everybody drives.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> How is video poker played?


This was a poker game with friends.

First we use Google Meet (free) and everyone joined the video chat, so we can all see each other. Then we used the free Poker Stars software... everyone created an account, and you get some free 'play money' on there. Within Poker Stars, one can create a "Home Game" or private club, so we all joined that.

I've heard Poker Stars works pretty well on the iPad but I used it on a laptop and that was OK too. The software is weird but we haven't found a better option yet.

A bit of work to set up, but we've got it working pretty good now. For the first time we also transferred real money around (between banks) so that we're playing for money.

On poker night, everyone joins the video chat and simultaneously starts up Poker Stars software. Now we can play poker and also talk / see each other. It's fun!

Some people remarked that it was the wildest party night they've had in weeks/months... it actually gets pretty close to the experience of being at a poker game with friends. You can even intimidate each other on video.

If anyone wants more details or help with this kind of thing, send me a message and I'll be happy to give more technical notes on how we do it.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> They could get stuck there, if the Biden administration clamps down on the virus.
> 
> Given the circumstances in the US, I was surprised to read that travel medical insurance has been re-initiated.
> 
> There may be an abrupt halt to that as well. Some of the bills from severely ill COVID patients is reaching $1 million US dollars.


Why would they be stuck down there?


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Lower yes, but the rates are still related. There's just some constant multiplier in play.


No there is not a constant mutiplier but they are loosely related. The posivitity rate can change based on their criteria for testing but won't (really) effect the total number of new cases. 

For example, say they decide to re-open testing for anyone that wishes whether they have symptoms or not. In this case the positivity rate would drop significantly if a large number of people decided to keep on getting tested and the number of new cases will only vary a tiny amount. Make sense now?



james4beach said:


> If we get to the point where a province has something like 30% positivity rate, in that case even though real disease rate among broad population is lower, we can still guess it's > 10%... maybe something 'on the order of' 10%. That's useful to know because you can guess at how many people around you have the disease.


Sure you can guess but if you want to make a better guess, base it off the number of active cases compared to the population in your area. I have no idea why you'd think a 30% positivity rate means 10% of all people would have covid.


----------



## sags

Money172375 said:


> Why would they be stuck down there?


US lock downs. Halting the virus will be the primary health and security issue in a few months.

The Biden administration will listen to the scientists if they say shut everything down.

Cancelled flights from the US, if the US pandemic continues to get worse and there is no business. The snowbirds flew down and depend on flights back.

Getting sick and hospitalized. Transporting an infectious COVID patient back to Canada may not be easy and certainly won't be cheap.

Who knows what the future will look like. It seems like a lot of unnecessary risk to me.


----------



## sags

Listening to expert after expert after expert on US news channels......it paints a pretty grim picture.

Even Fox News has quickly transitioned to the virus is very dangerous and people should be wearing masks and listening to the doctors.

Why anyone would even be contemplating travel to a hot zone of virus contamination is beyond my understanding.


----------



## sags

Not again.......



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/scarborough-rockcliffe-care-community-1.5802395


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> No there is not a constant mutiplier but they are loosely related. The posivitity rate can change based on their criteria for testing but won't (really) effect the total number of new cases.
> 
> For example, say they decide to re-open testing for anyone that wishes whether they have symptoms or not. In this case the positivity rate would drop significantly if a large number of people decided to keep on getting tested and the number of new cases will only vary a tiny amount. Make sense now?


It's an estimate. We don't have any accurate figures on this so I'm looking for reasonable estimates.



cainvest said:


> Sure you can guess but if you want to make a better guess, base it off the number of active cases compared to the population in your area. I have no idea why you'd think a 30% positivity rate means 10% of all people would have covid.


That's not a better guess. You're saying take (active cases / population)? That tremendously under-states the prevalence of the disease because we're only discovering a fraction of the active cases.

MB has 6,410 active cases divided by 1.4 million pop = 0.5% which can't be close to the prevalence rate in whole population.

I suppose you could also measure both and say that the rate in the broad population is somewhere between both of thm, minimum 0.5% maximum 12%


----------



## james4beach

A man in his 30s died in BC, the youngest COVID death so far in the province. He was healthy, and had mild symptoms. Things seemed fine... then he "died suddenly and unexpectedly in his sleep"









Port Coquitlam worker in his 30s may be B.C.’s youngest COVID-19 death | Globalnews.ca


'The symptoms were relatively mild ... right up until they weren't. This is what is so shocking and saddening,' said Aaron Schroeder with Nutri-Nation Functional Foods.




globalnews.ca





A young, healthy man. The disease isn't just a threat to the elderly. No question it's more dangerous to older people, but it's still a real threat to everyone.


----------



## sags

Yea...and Donald Trump survived. Go figure.......


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> That's not a better guess. You're saying take (active cases / population)? That tremendously under-states the prevalence of the disease because we're only discovering a fraction of the active cases.
> 
> MB has 6,410 active cases divided by 1.4 million pop = 0.5% which can't be close to the prevalence rate in whole population.
> 
> I suppose you could also measure both and say that the rate in the broad population is somewhere between both of thm, minimum 0.5% maximum 12%


IMO, that provides a far better guess than the positivity rate ever could. I'm also not so sure how understated active cases are, anyone working showing symptoms would likely be forced to go and get tested. Sure, some will slip by and not get tested thinking, it's just the flu or a cold but I can't see that adding up to a 10% increase like you're suggesting. As I mentioned earlier, double that number, heck even triple it if you like. So 1.5% ... which is probably a worst case senario.

Also note that as the recovered cases climb that will work against active cases unless someone steps forward with real data on high reinfection rates.


----------



## sags

This is a job for Harry Enten........the CNN wizard of statistics.


----------



## james4beach

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/snowbirds-seniors-travel-advisory-canada-u-s-border-covid-19-1.5799456



It's estimated that 30% of Canadian snowbirds are still going south to the US!!


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/snowbirds-seniors-travel-advisory-canada-u-s-border-covid-19-1.5799456
> 
> 
> 
> It's estimated that 30% of Canadian snowbirds are still going south to the US!!


Mandatory quarantine if they come back.


----------



## sags

I was surprised to read that insurers have re-started medical insurance. I wouldn't count on that lasting long.

I wouldn't be surprised there are stories in the future that some got sick and are begging the government to fly them home for health care.

No insurance.......severe COVID infection......treatment in the US........upwards of $1,000,000.


----------



## cainvest

Anti-Mask rally here in MB yesterday -> Ticket handed out to speaker at Manitoba anti-mask rally

This quote was interesting from the elected Reeve for the RM of La Broquerie ...

_"It seems very strange that our loved ones are being allowed to die when there are medicines available that very quickly and easily can cure this," _

Where do people get this information?


----------



## sags

Probably a Trump supporter and thinks if he survived because of a drug cocktail.......they would too.

People don't understand the reality at all. COVID isn't a typical respiratory flu.

It is a blood disease that affects all areas of the body....lungs, heart, brain, arteries, kidneys, liver....in different ways in different people.

The challenge for doctors is they don't know what to expect will manifest itself, even with patients lying there all hooked up to the machines and getting IV.

One minute the patient is fine .....the next they are dead. If a person has a weakness anywhere in their body, the virus exploits it.

Frankly, this virus is so complicated that I believe it was manufactured and escaped the top secret government lab in Wuhan, who experiment with such things. The "official" story is somebody started it in the Wuhan market just down the road from the lab. Did the person work at the lab ? Frozen carcasses of the animals in the market did not test positive for COVID, but there was COVID detected in drains and the sewers. It was there.....somewhere.

The top level lab in Winnipeg sent samples of corona virus to that lab and a couple of Chinese scientists where under RCMP investigation.

Where is the follow up story on that ? The government has no interest in where the virus came from and how it spread ?

The WHO is finally going to investigate the origin. I suspect that if the virus came from a lab......they will never find out.









Where did COVID come from? WHO investigation begins but faces challenges


Identifying the source will be tricky, and investigators will need to grapple with the sensitive political situation.




www.nature.com


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Frankly, this virus is so complicated that I believe it was manufactured and escaped the top secret government lab in Wuhan, who experiment with such things. The "official" story is somebody started it in the Wuhan market just down the road from the lab. Did the person work at the lab ? Frozen carcasses of the animals in the market did not test positive for COVID, but there was COVID detected in drains and the sewers. It was there.....somewhere.
> 
> The top level lab in Winnipeg sent samples of corona virus to that lab and a couple of Chinese scientists where under RCMP investigation.
> 
> Where is the follow up story on that ? The government has no interest in where the virus came from and how it spread ?
> 
> The WHO is finally going to investigate the origin. I suspect that if the virus came from a lab......they will never find out.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Where did COVID come from? WHO investigation begins but faces challenges
> 
> 
> Identifying the source will be tricky, and investigators will need to grapple with the sensitive political situation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nature.com


Who knows. Perhaps it was a developing viral weapon. That said, I assume no one thinks, that if a scientist did develop covid-19 as a bio weapon, that they received any kudos or rewards from their superiors. I mean can you imagine him/her explaining the results of this microbiological breakthrough in weaponry:

"So it is a weapon that doesn't kill very many people at all, and mainly focuses its violence on old people, sick people, overweight people and just about anyone that might die on their own in a short period of time and who definitely could not have put up any defense against any of our traditional weapons. What it doesn't do, unfortuneately, is kill the young, strong, and anyone capable of exacting a nightmare of revenge on the scumbags who created it, or even put those young people out of action for a prolonged period of time".

I am sure they heard their illustrious leader applaud and say: Good job. Well done there. That was certainly a few billion dollars well spent now wasn't it. lol

No. Covid -19 was certainly NOT a bio weapon. Not sure what else is developed in a secret bio laboratory but if it is not a weapon, I am starting to think it was not developed with evil intent. Or if it was, it was one of their bigger failures, for sure.


----------



## sags

Maybe the virus escaped before it was finished, or maybe it was designed to do exactly what it is doing.

If the COVID virus dropped people dead immediately, the world would have already gone to war with China, quite possibly with a full nuclear response.

The virus is highly infectious and didn't have to kill everyone instantly to create ongoing economic chaos.........just as it is doing.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Maybe the virus escaped before it was finished, or maybe it was designed to do exactly what it is doing.


I'm guessing sags just sees the top left and bottom right boxes here 



http://imgur.com/C4lrHOS


----------



## sags

Lots of information available to anyone who wants to research it.

I find it disturbing that the Canadian lab is funded in part by Chinese government agencies, and Chinese students working there are connected to Chinese military bio-weapon development. The RCMP caught the Chinese couple improperly exporting Ebola and other extremely lethal virus strains. What they don't know is what else they and others took or sent to their Chinese funding agencies between 2006 and 2019.

The top microbiologist in Israel on chemical and biological warfare raises some questions, as do many other experts.

The news source and author appear to be reputable :

_Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham, a microbiologist and senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, is recognized as a top Israeli expert on chemical and biological warfare in the Middle East. He is a former senior intelligence analyst in the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli Ministry of Defense. _









China and Viruses: The Case of Dr. Xiangguo Qiu


In July 2019, a rare event occurred in Canada. Suspected of espionage for China, a group of Chinese virologists was forcibly evicted from the Canadian National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipe




besacenter.org





There have also been arrests in the US involving Chinese scientists, including one who was arrested at Logan International Airport in Boston, while trying to smuggle vials of deadly virus samples out of the US. These are not isolated incidents and it is well know the Chinese lab in Wuhan is developing biological weapons for the Chinese military.


----------



## like_to_retire

Another company reports today with positive results, but don't you feel this "two shots" requirement is going to be a big stumbling block?

Moderna's coronavirus vaccine is 94.5 per cent effective, according to company data.

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> Another company reports today with positive results, but don't you feel this "two shots" requirement is going to be a big stumbling block?
> 
> Moderna's coronavirus vaccine is 94.5 per cent effective, according to company data.
> 
> ltr


Sure it will be a big problem, particularly if there are any timing requirements etc.
The storage requirements will also make things more difficult.

We'll see.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Lots of information available to anyone who wants to research it.
> 
> I find it disturbing that the Canadian lab is funded in part by Chinese government agencies, and Chinese students working there are connected to Chinese military bio-weapon development. The RCMP caught the Chinese couple improperly exporting Ebola and other extremely lethal virus strains. What they don't know is what else they and others took or sent to their Chinese funding agencies between 2006 and 2019.
> 
> The top microbiologist in Israel on chemical and biological warfare raises some questions, as do many other experts.
> 
> The news source and author appear to be reputable :
> 
> _Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham, a microbiologist and senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, is recognized as a top Israeli expert on chemical and biological warfare in the Middle East. He is a former senior intelligence analyst in the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli Ministry of Defense. _
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China and Viruses: The Case of Dr. Xiangguo Qiu
> 
> 
> In July 2019, a rare event occurred in Canada. Suspected of espionage for China, a group of Chinese virologists was forcibly evicted from the Canadian National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipe
> 
> 
> 
> 
> besacenter.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There have also been arrests in the US involving Chinese scientists, including one who was arrested at Logan International Airport in Boston, while trying to smuggle vials of deadly virus samples out of the US. These are not isolated incidents and it is well know the Chinese lab in Wuhan is developing biological weapons for the Chinese military.


You say that and people will think you're buying into some Trump conspiracy theory.


----------



## OptsyEagle

like_to_retire said:


> Another company reports today with positive results, but don't you feel this "two shots" requirement is going to be a big stumbling block?
> 
> Moderna's coronavirus vaccine is 94.5 per cent effective, according to company data.
> 
> ltr


I wish the infected ones, from all these results were a little more numerous for analysis reasons. In Moderna's case we are basing conclusions on 95 infections of which 90 were placebo. Hence 90/95 = 94.5%.

I also wish they would give a description of how sick these 5 vaccinated people got. I suppose, even if they did post it, that it would be too small of sample to garner much info from, but I am still curious. If they were all asymptomatic or very mild, I might start calling it almost 100% effective. Anyway, if anyone ever sees this info, please post it.


----------



## Beaver101

World Health Organization has had 65 COVID-19 cases at its Swiss headquarters



> GENEVA -- The World Health Organization has recorded 65 cases of the coronavirus among staff based at its headquarters, including at least one cluster of infections, an internal email obtained by The Associated Press shows, despite the agency's public assertions that there has been no transmission at the Geneva site.
> 
> The revelation comes amid a surge of cases in Europe, host country Switzerland, and the city of Geneva, in particular, and the email said about* half of the infections were in people who had been working from home.* But 32 were in staff who had been working on premises at the headquarters building, indicating that the health agency's strict hygiene, screening and other prevention measures were not sufficient to spare it from the pandemic. ...


 ...duh & disturbing.


----------



## like_to_retire

OptsyEagle said:


> I wish the infected ones, from all these results were a little more numerous for analysis reasons.


Yeah, if we would run a "Challenge Trial", then we'd get a lot more accurate and quick results. Unfortunately, challenges trial are more acceptable when there is a "treatment" for the affliction on trial. If there's no proper treatment, then those that get it could die. Not the kind of trial I would sign up for, but I understand there are lots of violunteers.

_"The difference between human challenge trials and existing vaccine trials is that volunteers in human challenge trials are deliberately dosed with the virus. Scientists can then track the success rate of the vaccine in all participants, rather than waiting for some participants to "naturally" catch the virus on their own."

"Human challenge trials have been used before to develop treatments against smallpox, influenza and malaria. The World Health Organization says the approach can be "substantially faster" than standard vaccine field trials and, if designed properly, human challenge trials could lead to better vaccines."_









Petition urges Canadian testing of unproven vaccines on human volunteers


A petition has been filed to the federal government calling on Canada to join the United Kingdom in allowing controversial human challenge trials, which would test unproven COVID-19 vaccines on healthy volunteers willing to get infected with the novel coronavirus.



www.ctvnews.ca





ltr


----------



## sags

Moderna did give numbers on the serious infections they encountered. I think it was 0 for the vaccine takers and 11 for the placebo takers.

So in effect, none of the 1500 patients with the vaccine got very sick, and 11 of the 1500 with the placebo did get very sick.

That might be the best stat of all. Take the vaccine and if you get infected, it will likely be a mild case.

The question may be long term affects of the vaccine. That won't be known for years, but there isn't much other choice but to take the chance.


----------



## sags

I thought there were stories on the bravery of people being injected with the vaccine in challenge trials ?

I seem to remember people being interviewed about the risk they were taking.


----------



## andrewf

This Moderna vaccine is much more useful, nevermind its higher effectiveness (based on a relatively small sample). It doesn't require impractical cryogenic freezing.

These vaccines are useful, but it is unclear if they prevent people from transmitting the virus or if they just reduce the severity of symptoms, or how long the immunity lasts. Longer term we'll want a vaccine with at least several-year immunity. Herd immunity doesn't kick in unless those immunized are incapable of transmitting the virus.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> I wish the infected ones, from all these results were a little more numerous for analysis reasons. In Moderna's case we are basing conclusions on 95 infections of which 90 were placebo. Hence 90/95 = 94.5%.
> 
> I also wish they would give a description of how sick these 5 vaccinated people got. I suppose, even if they did post it, that it would be too small of sample to garner much info from, but I am still curious. If they were all asymptomatic or very mild, I might start calling it almost 100% effective. Anyway, if anyone ever sees this info, please post it.


The trial used 30,000 participants. Half with placebo, and the other with the vaccine.








Moderna's coronavirus vaccine is 94.5% effective, according to company data


The Moderna vaccine is 94.5% effective against coronavirus, according to early data released Monday by the company, making it the second vaccine in the United States to have a stunningly high success rate.




www.cnn.com





So the comparison is that of the placebo: 90 got COVID with 11 serious, and with the vaccine: 5 got COVID, with no serious.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> This Moderna vaccine is much more useful, nevermind its higher effectiveness (based on a relatively small sample). It doesn't require impractical cryogenic freezing.
> 
> These vaccines are useful, but it is unclear if they prevent people from transmitting the virus or if they just reduce the severity of symptoms, or how long the immunity lasts. Longer term we'll want a vaccine with at least several-year immunity. Herd immunity doesn't kick in unless those immunized are incapable of transmitting the virus.


It kind of does not matter that much because it allows us to get exposure to this type of virus, that should provide our bodies with a much stronger immune system against it. That is why I was interested in the outcome of the 5 infected vaccine candidates. It is what I would expect. Also, as I have been saying over and over again, it is unlikely asymptomatic individuals are as infectious as symptomatic individuals. So it seems to me that if the real life results align closely to these test results, then it is check mate for covid-19. Game over.

Unfortunately to experience again, a world without Covid-19, one must survive through 2021. So with that in mind, let's stay smart and safe.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> It kind of does not matter that much because it allows us to get exposure to this type of virus, that should provide our bodies with a much stronger immune system against it. That is why I was interested in the outcome of the 5 infected vaccine candidates. It is what I would expect. Also, as I have been saying over and over again, it is unlikely asymptomatic individuals are as infectious as symptomatic individuals. So it seems to me that if the real life results align closely to these test results, then it is check mate for covid-19. Game over.
> 
> Unfortunately to experience again, a world without Covid-19, one must survive through 2021. So with that in mind, let's stay smart and safe.


A widely circulating virus can continue to cross species barriers (like with mink in Denmark) and invites potentially disastrous mutation. Every transmission is buying a lottery ticket where the grand prize is a second pandemic of potentially deadlier virus.


----------



## sags

bgc_fan said:


> The trial used 30,000 participants. Half with placebo, and the other with the vaccine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Moderna's coronavirus vaccine is 94.5% effective, according to company data
> 
> 
> The Moderna vaccine is 94.5% effective against coronavirus, according to early data released Monday by the company, making it the second vaccine in the United States to have a stunningly high success rate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So the comparison is that of the placebo: 90 got COVID with 11 serious, and with the vaccine: 5 got COVID, with no serious.


Thanks for providing the actual statistics. I got it wrong posting 1500 instead of 15,000.

A larger sampling makes the results even more impressive.

There is still FDA approval before they start distributing the vaccine, but hopefully that will be fast tracked.

The US gave Moderna over $1 billion to develop the vaccine, so I suspect Canadians will be waiting for awhile to get the shots.


----------



## Spudd

Here's an article on the planned challenge trial in the UK. It's unclear if this will go ahead or not.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-challenge-trials-uk/2020/10/20/00a31136-026c-11eb-b92e-029676f9ebec_story.html


----------



## james4beach

In any case this is great news ... two promising vaccines that are nearly certain to improve the situation.

Canada has pre-ordered both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, also good.


----------



## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> In any case this is great news ... two promising vaccines that are nearly certain to improve the situation.
> 
> Canada has pre-ordered both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, also good.


Kind of expected to hedge bets on something like this. The fact that Moderna's vaccine doesn't need to be stored at -70C like Pfizer's is a good thing as well. Pfizer's vaccine can be distributed to areas with closer access to -70C facilities, while Moderna's can be used for more remote areas, or areas with limited cooling facilities.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Thanks for providing the actual statistics. I got it wrong posting 1500 instead of 15,000.
> 
> A larger sampling makes the results even more impressive.
> 
> There is still FDA approval before they start distributing the vaccine, but hopefully that will be fast tracked.
> 
> The US gave Moderna over $1 billion to develop the vaccine, so I suspect Canadians will be waiting for awhile to get the shots.


Hopefully there aren't any safety issues.
A number of flu vaccines have been recalled.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-recalls-some-flu-vaccines-after-3-adverse-events-in-new-brunswick-1.5803774










Deaths rattle South Korea's seasonal flu vaccination, but authority presses ahead with free scheme


South Korea is preparing to fight two infectious diseases this winter: the novel coronavirus and the flu. | South Korea is preparing to fight two infectious diseases this winter: the novel coronavirus and the flu. But reports of deaths after flu shot vaccination may jeopardize the second effort...




www.fiercepharma.com












Korea Vaccine recalls 615,000 doses of flu vaccines | Yonhap News Agency


SEOUL, Oct. 9 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's drug safety agency said Friday it has ordered...




en.yna.co.kr


----------



## sags

I think it would be fair to say Canadians should have waited to pat ourselves on the back for controlling COVID.

The Premiers appear to be frozen in the headlights and don't know what to do. What is the strategy as the pandemic worsens ?

There are more stories of healthy young people getting seriously ill or dying form the virus.

There are more stories of people appearing to get better and then suddenly becoming very sick and dying.

There are more stories of the quick spread of the virus in hospital settings, despite all the precautions.

Has the virus mutated.......or is news media digging out more of those stories now ?


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Kind of expected to hedge bets on something like this. The fact that Moderna's vaccine doesn't need to be stored at -70C like Pfizer's is a good thing as well. Pfizer's vaccine can be distributed to areas with closer access to -70C facilities, while Moderna's can be used for more remote areas, or areas with limited cooling facilities.


Dry ice is cheap and widely available.
the -70C issue is overblown


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Dry ice is cheap and widely available.
> the -70C issue is overblown


Others disagree:

CDC has stated that it can be an issue for community clinics and pharmacies to accommodate: Less stringent cold chain requirements could give Moderna's coronavirus vaccine an edge

Estimates state that only 10% of the airplane cargo can accommodate due to the limits of CO2 NoCookies | The Australian

For an idea of how much dry ice is required: How Long Dry Ice Lasts
Keep in mind that it is mainly for transport, you're not going to expect that you will have a steady supply of dry ice to keep your local supply of vaccine for weeks to accommodate local distribution.

Some Macgyver solutions: Pfizer’s COVID Vaccine Has to Be Stored at -80°C. There’s Already a Run on Freezers.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Haven't read into the (scientific health) details of the 2 new vaccines. But the above brief headline/link regarding the deep-cold (-70/80C?) storage requirement of the Pfizer's one seems problematic, never mind getting a room temperature injection.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Dry ice is a fairly interesting material. As we know it is solidified or frozen CO2. As we also know, CO2, at room temperature really wants to be a gas, not a solid. Not unlike water wanting to be a liquid at that temperature. The big difference however is that it is one of a very few materials that "sublime". Sublime is a chemical term to describe the fact that CO2 is never a liquid. It's physical state goes directly from solid to gas. As we know most materials, like water for instance, go from solid to liquid then to gas as they are warmed up. That is the normal change of state for most matter on earth.

I have no idea why CO2 is different but perhaps it can have an extended life as a solid at -70 by perhaps securing the pressure on it. So in other words, if the pressure exerted on it was much higher then atmospheric, I know its solid state could be maintained much longer, but perhaps even the very low temperature might last longer with higher pressures. That would be easier to maintain, in my opinion, then freezers that can cool to -70C. I just don't know if it works this way, but it might.

Anyway, dry ice is fairly common but I would not say it is easy to deal with. Touching dry ice with unprotected hands is not much different then touching your hot stove. The rate of eat loss your body experiences ends up similar to what it would look like after a fairly good burn. One has to be very careful with it. It doesn't help that you are working in a fog the second you open the lid of the container.


----------



## andrewf

Whether a substance sublimates or not is a function of pressure. Water ice sublimates at low pressure, such as you might see on Mars (ice to water vapour). If you kept frozen/solid CO2 at sufficient pressure, all you would achieve is that it would warm and melt to liquid instead of sublimate to a gas.


I can see the Pfizer vaccine being used in hospital settings or in vaccination blitzes. But a neighbourhood clinic is not going to be using it. The Moderna vaccine is going to be a lot more practical.

They do warm it up prior to injection, it just degrades quickly when stored above -70C.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Dry ice is a fairly interesting material. As we know it is solidified or frozen CO2. As we also know, CO2, at room temperature really wants to be a gas, not a solid. Not unlike water wanting to be a liquid at that temperature. The big difference however is that it is one of a very few materials that "sublime". Sublime is a chemical term to describe the fact that CO2 is never a liquid. It's physical state goes directly from solid to gas. As we know most materials, like water for instance, go from solid to liquid then to gas as they are warmed up. That is the normal change of state for most matter on earth.
> 
> I have no idea why CO2 is different but perhaps it can have an extended life as a solid at -70 by perhaps securing the pressure on it. So in other words, if the pressure exerted on it was much higher then atmospheric, I know its solid state could be maintained much longer, but perhaps even the very low temperature might last longer with higher pressures. That would be easier to maintain, in my opinion, then freezers that can cool to -70C. I just don't know if it works this way, but it might.
> 
> Anyway, dry ice is fairly common but I would not say it is easy to deal with. Touching dry ice with unprotected hands is not much different then touching your hot stove. The rate of eat loss your body experiences ends up similar to what it would look like after a fairly good burn. One has to be very careful with it. It doesn't help that you are working in a fog the second you open the lid of the container.


If you pressurize it, it will stay solid, but the temperature will increase.

My point is if you simply put the vaccine in dry ice (at -78C) the "-70C" problem goes away.
Sure it is more trouble dealing with dry ice than normal icepacks.
But it isn't insurmountable, and not even as troublesome as liquid nitrogen.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Dry ice is a fairly interesting material. As we know it is solidified or frozen CO2. As we also know, CO2, at room temperature really wants to be a gas, not a solid. Not unlike water wanting to be a liquid at that temperature. The big difference however is that it is one of a very few materials that "sublime". Sublime is a chemical term to describe the fact that CO2 is never a liquid. It's physical state goes directly from solid to gas. As we know most materials, like water for instance, go from solid to liquid then to gas as they are warmed up. That is the normal change of state for most matter on earth.
> 
> I have no idea why CO2 is different but perhaps it can have an extended life as a solid at -70 by perhaps securing the pressure on it. So in other words, if the pressure exerted on it was much higher then atmospheric, I know its solid state could be maintained much longer, but perhaps even the very low temperature might last longer with higher pressures. That would be easier to maintain, in my opinion, then freezers that can cool to -70C. I just don't know if it works this way, but it might.
> 
> Anyway, dry ice is fairly common but I would not say it is easy to deal with. Touching dry ice with unprotected hands is not much different then touching your hot stove. The rate of eat loss your body experiences ends up similar to what it would look like after a fairly good burn. One has to be very careful with it. It doesn't help that you are working in a fog the second you open the lid of the container.


If you pressurize it, it will stay solid, but the temperature will increase.

My point is if you simply put the vaccine in dry ice (at -78C) the "-70C" problem goes away.
Sure it is more trouble dealing with dry ice than normal icepacks.
But it isn't insurmountable, and not even as troublesome as liquid nitrogen.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Others disagree:
> 
> CDC has stated that it can be an issue for community clinics and pharmacies to accommodate: Less stringent cold chain requirements could give Moderna's coronavirus vaccine an edge
> 
> Estimates state that only 10% of the airplane cargo can accommodate due to the limits of CO2 NoCookies | The Australian
> 
> For an idea of how much dry ice is required: How Long Dry Ice Lasts
> Keep in mind that it is mainly for transport, you're not going to expect that you will have a steady supply of dry ice to keep your local supply of vaccine for weeks to accommodate local distribution.
> 
> Some Macgyver solutions: Pfizer’s COVID Vaccine Has to Be Stored at -80°C. There’s Already a Run on Freezers.


They don't disagree with me.
Sure dry ice is more difficult to handle, but it's cheap and widely available.

It's not ideal, but it isn't an insurmountable obstacle.

Lots of pharmaceuticals are stored just fine at room temperature, some need to be refridgerated, or frozen, or apparently held on dry ice.
Do you really think we're going to need aircraft full of COVID19 vaccine?

If that we the case, put it on military aircraft, and have them use supplemental oxygen.


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> ...
> I can see the Pfizer vaccine being used in hospital settings or in vaccination blitzes. But a neighbourhood clinic is not going to be using it. The Moderna vaccine is going to be a lot more practical.
> 
> They do warm it up prior to injection, it just degrades quickly when stored above -70C.


 ... Pfizer's use in the hospital and/or a blitz makes more sense. That better be a very quick warm up prior to injection plus quick use-up.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Lots of pharmaceuticals are stored just fine at room temperature, some need to be refridgerated, or frozen, or apparently held on dry ice.
> Do you really think we're going to need aircraft full of COVID19 vaccine?


If you plan on shipping from one end of the country to the other you may want to use aircraft for delivery, or from one country to another. At this time Pfizer is looking at 3 US manufacturing plants to start, but regardless, all their plants are in the East of US. Scaling Up to Manufacture and Supply a COVID-19 Vaccine, If Approved | Pfizer

As for international, they are only looking at Belgium for the moment: Pfizer tags 3 U.S. manufacturing sites for possible COVID-19 vaccine launch

Edit:


MrMatt said:


> If that we the case, put it on military aircraft, and have them use supplemental oxygen.


Oh, and please provide source and examples on how this will address the issue.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I will add that my shipping department used dry ice all the time and for the most part the workers were just high school graduates. No sophisticated education required. Mr. Matt is correct. It is not all that difficult to use and is fairly abundant and I doubt overly expensive. We always used it for shipping only since I am not sure how long it lasted in the insulated cooler. I would imagine it was good for a few days but one would probably need a freezer to store things at the end locations.

But who knows. Other then knowing what the term sublime means I don't have much more experience with it. I agree, the temp would probably rise under pressure because where I got the idea was what happens to fuel in your car during the compression stroke of the engine. The pressure does affect the temperature, but as Mr. Matt has indicated, it heats up. I suppose all materials heat up under increased pressure. Too bad. That might have helped.


----------



## sags

The government is sourcing refrigeration units.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The government is sourcing refrigeration units.


Who makes them and what is their stock symbol? lol. Might as well make a buck.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> If you plan on shipping from one end of the country to the other you may want to use aircraft for delivery, or from one country to another. At this time Pfizer is looking at 3 US manufacturing plants to start, but regardless, all their plants are in the East of US. Scaling Up to Manufacture and Supply a COVID-19 Vaccine, If Approved | Pfizer
> 
> As for international, they are only looking at Belgium for the moment: Pfizer tags 3 U.S. manufacturing sites for possible COVID-19 vaccine launch
> 
> Edit:
> 
> 
> Oh, and please provide source and examples on how this will address the issue.


If you're concerned about flying dry ice, just open the cargo area to atmosphere and fly venting it.
Or use liquid nitrogen, or other refrigeration technologies.

These are all very solvable problems.

When the worst case for the vaccine is that it will require jets flying at 10% capacity, who cares, it's just money, spend what it takes.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> If you're concerned about flying dry ice, just open the cargo area to atmosphere and fly venting it.
> Or use liquid nitrogen, or other refrigeration technologies.
> 
> These are all very solvable problems.
> 
> When the worst case for the vaccine is that it will require jets flying at 10% capacity, who cares, it's just money, spend what it takes.


No source, ignored answer.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> No source, ignored answer.


Your link to the 10% restriction on air transport is broken, so I'm not sure what your claim is.

However if the concern is simply too much dry ice and CO2, just vent it, as in have the aircrew breath oxygen let the CO2 out into the atmosphere. 
Source, tour of C-130 and being in a plane that flew with the rear door open.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Your link to the 10% restriction on air transport is broken, so I'm not sure what your claim is.
> 
> However if the concern is simply too much dry ice and CO2, just vent it, as in have the aircrew breath oxygen let the CO2 out into the atmosphere.
> Source, tour of C-130 and being in a plane that flew with the rear door open.


Anecdotes aren't useful sources nor can be confirmed, so try again.

So here are a few simple things:
C-130 fact sheet: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/cont...in/aero/documents/C-130J/C130JPocketGuide.pdf
Cargo volume: 6,022 ft3
Payload capacity: 47,333 lbs

Max amount of dry ice to be carried based on FAA guidelines: https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/AC_91-76A.pdf
3,421 lbs of dry ice.

Don't have the dimensions or characteristics of the Pfizer transport boxes, but you can see there is a limit on how much can be transported by air.

If you want some more insight on why this may be an issue, here's a link to a CNN story: Pfizer's ultra-cold vaccine, a 'very complex' distribution plan and an exploding head emoji

Edit: The CNN article mentions a shortage of dry ice, so here's another article talking about that: Shortage Of Dry Ice Could Chill Coronavirus Vaccine Distribution


----------



## OptsyEagle

I was looking at the current US Covid-19 train wreck and started wondering how bad it will get after Christmas and it quickly occurred to me that those poor people have not even had their Thanksgiving yet.

Their government is in complete disarray, covid numbers going hyperbolic, hospitals and ICU wards are filling up rapidly and two national holidays, that usually result in large family gatherings, will happen in the next 6 weeks or so. And these people have still not decided whether it is better to be free and dead or inconvenienced a little and still alive.

Anyone want to build a model to estimate a worst case scenario for that? The virus would be loving it. It can't believe it's luck.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Anecdotes aren't useful sources nor can be confirmed, so try again.
> 
> So here are a few simple things:
> C-130 fact sheet: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/cont...in/aero/documents/C-130J/C130JPocketGuide.pdf
> Cargo volume: 6,022 ft3
> Payload capacity: 47,333 lbs
> 
> Max amount of dry ice to be carried based on FAA guidelines: https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/AC_91-76A.pdf
> 3,421 lbs of dry ice.
> 
> Don't have the dimensions or characteristics of the Pfizer transport boxes, but you can see there is a limit on how much can be transported by air.
> 
> If you want some more insight on why this may be an issue, here's a link to a CNN story: Pfizer's ultra-cold vaccine, a 'very complex' distribution plan and an exploding head emoji
> 
> Edit: The CNN article mentions a shortage of dry ice, so here's another article talking about that: Shortage Of Dry Ice Could Chill Coronavirus Vaccine Distribution


FAA guideline is based on air recirculation (sec 4 your link)

Amount to be carried can increase if you improve air exchanges. Flying with the doors open dramatically increases airflow.
Finally the supplementary oxygen available to pilots negates the whole problem with CO2 buildup, which again won't happen if the doors are open.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> FAA guideline is based on air recirculation (sec 4 your link)
> 
> Amount to be carried can increase if you improve air exchanges. Flying with the doors open dramatically increases airflow.
> Finally the supplementary oxygen available to pilots negates the whole problem with CO2 buildup, which again won't happen if the doors are open.


Still didn't provide any proof. 

Seeing as you don't hold yourself to your own proof standards, I guess I can just ignore you now.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Still didn't provide any proof.
> 
> Seeing as you don't hold yourself to your own proof standards, I guess I can just ignore you now.


Your document shows an example of 5682 lbs. of dry ice

It's really simple, look at section 7, figure out the exchange rate.
In any case my point, as backed up by your FAA document, suggests that a large quantity of dry ice can be flown.

As far as shortages, again that's easy, force allocation to medical needs.
I think it's more important to ensure vaccine availability than Marc Savenor's ribs for dinner.


----------



## sags

Presuming the US will allow vaccine exports out of the US.

They may want 600 million doses or more........so we may be lucky if we see a vaccine before 2022.

The distribution may become highly political as all the countries want the vaccine asap.

The countries where the vaccine was developed and manufactured will likely be first in line.

I think a situation where the countries say to the companies......you researched, developed and manufactured it here, but go ahead and give it to the Canadians and our people can wait.....is unlikely.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Presuming the US will allow vaccine exports out of the US.
> 
> They may want 600 million doses or more........so we may be lucky if we see a vaccine before 2022.


Tom Bollyky, director of the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations warned any U.S. effort to inoculate its entire population could incentivize other countries to refuse to share peripheral materials needed for mass vaccination, including vaccine vials and syringes.

ltr


----------



## bgc_fan

sags said:


> Presuming the US will allow vaccine exports out of the US.
> 
> They may want 600 million doses or more........so we may be lucky if we see a vaccine before 2022.
> 
> The distribution may become highly political as all the countries want the vaccine asap.
> 
> The countries where the vaccine was developed and manufactured will likely be first in line.
> 
> I think a situation where the countries say to the companies......you researched, developed and manufactured it here, but go ahead and give it to the Canadians and our people can wait.....is unlikely.


Well, vaccines are being produced in other places and the Pfizer vaccine was done with a partnership with a German company BioNTech. The US has pre-ordered 100M doses of Pfizer's vaccine, but they've also pre-ordered from other manufacturers: Fact Sheet: Explaining Operation Warp Speed. I doubt that the expectation is that Pfizer is going to be able to immediately produce 600M doses and leave other countries out of it. 

There are some homegrown options, but they are almost all preclinical stage: https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canadian-vaccine-candidates-covid-coronavirus-1.5764874. One of which, Medicago, was provided federal government funding for a plant in Quebec. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-vaccine-rapid-tests-1.5774309. Their target date is next year. They are really hedging bets as they have secured 358 M doses of vaccine. Likely most aren't going to pan out, but you never know.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> If you pressurize it, it will stay solid, but the temperature will increase.
> 
> My point is if you simply put the vaccine in dry ice (at -78C) the "-70C" problem goes away.
> Sure it is more trouble dealing with dry ice than normal icepacks.
> But it isn't insurmountable, and not even as troublesome as liquid nitrogen.











The Pfizer vaccine, with a shelf life of ten days, will require supply chain innovation — Warehouse Automation


The path from a vaccine to a vaccination depends on supply chain innovation.




www.warehouseautomation.ca





It doesn't seem to be trivial.


----------



## like_to_retire

andrewf said:


> It doesn't seem to be trivial.


Yeah, for sure the logistics don't seem like something that can be waived off. There's a lot more to it than the typical vaccine that everyone is use to simply keeping cool.

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> The Pfizer vaccine, with a shelf life of ten days, will require supply chain innovation — Warehouse Automation
> 
> 
> The path from a vaccine to a vaccination depends on supply chain innovation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.warehouseautomation.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It doesn't seem to be trivial.


10 day shelf life is pretty brutal.
As the article says in some areas this simply won't work.

It will be tricky, but most populated Canada and the US is definitely doable.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

Baby chicks have a shelf life of 3 days.

Hatcheries routinely ship them all around the world with no problems whatsoever.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> I was looking at the current US Covid-19 train wreck and started wondering how bad it will get after Christmas and it quickly occurred to me that those poor people have not even had their Thanksgiving yet.
> 
> Their government is in complete disarray, covid numbers going hyperbolic, hospitals and ICU wards are filling up rapidly and two national holidays, that usually result in large family gatherings, will happen in the next 6 weeks or so. And these people have still not decided whether it is better to be free and dead or inconvenienced a little and still alive.
> 
> Anyone want to build a model to estimate a worst case scenario for that? The virus would be loving it. It can't believe it's luck.


 ... not going into the politics of this disaster for a first world country but with the Dump continuing to squatting and dickering around the WH and no one to be able to "lead" or have an 11th hour plan, can only see this pandemic will get ALOT WORST than abit better by the end of the year for the Americans. I wonder if there's any more space over at Hart Island's mass grave.

Just keep our borders closed with everyone staying on their side if they don't need to be elsewhere. And this includes our brave die-hard Canadian snowbirds.


----------



## sags

bgc_fan said:


> Well, vaccines are being produced in other places and the Pfizer vaccine was done with a partnership with a German company BioNTech. The US has pre-ordered 100M doses of Pfizer's vaccine, but they've also pre-ordered from other manufacturers: Fact Sheet: Explaining Operation Warp Speed. I doubt that the expectation is that Pfizer is going to be able to immediately produce 600M doses and leave other countries out of it.
> 
> There are some homegrown options, but they are almost all preclinical stage: https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canadian-vaccine-candidates-covid-coronavirus-1.5764874. One of which, Medicago, was provided federal government funding for a plant in Quebec. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-vaccine-rapid-tests-1.5774309. Their target date is next year. They are really hedging bets as they have secured 358 M doses of vaccine. Likely most aren't going to pan out, but you never know.


Thanks for the link to Operation Warp Speed.

The US has secured a significant number of the vaccine shots, and glass vials and syringes. There is no mention of any sharing with other countries.

According to the experts I have heard on the media, the vaccine shots will be rationed for some time. 

I haven't heard anything about Canada obtaining the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.


----------



## bgc_fan

sags said:


> Thanks for the link to Operation Warp Speed.
> 
> The US has secured a significant number of the vaccine shots, and glass vials and syringes. There is no mention of any sharing with other countries.
> 
> According to the experts I have heard on the media, the vaccine shots will be rationed for some time.
> 
> I haven't heard anything about Canada obtaining the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.


As for glass vials and syringes: 
The Government of Canada has also signed two contracts with SiO2 International Inc. to purchase syringes and vials for use in filling up to 80 million doses of vaccine, with deliveries beginning this month. 

The CBC link mentioned that they have pre-ordered from Pfizer and Moderna:
Canada already has signed six other contracts for tens of millions more vaccine doses with other pharmaceutical giants, such as AstraZeneca, Moderna and Pfizer.

We may not be in the best position, but we're not too bad assuming the contracts are fulfilled.


----------



## sags

The open question is when the Canadian contracts with Pfizer and Moderna will be fulfilled.

The link states the US will receive "some of them first" before anyone else.

_*The U.S. is positioned to receive some of the American-made vaccines first*, because taxpayers there helped to fund most of the front-end costs of developing those drugs through the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed. _

It looks like a numbers game of demand and supply and US politics may enter into the equation. How many vaccines does "some of them" represent ?

The Trump administration will likely claim all the vaccines for themselves citing their ownership of them, and the incoming Biden administration won't be anxious to invite public criticism from Republicans that they are giving vaccines to Canada while Americans are still waiting for them.

Time will tell, but I think that hopes there will be a widespread vaccination program underway in Canada in early 2021 are overly optimistic.


----------



## sags

In other COVID news, Dr. Fauci is warning Canada "is getting themselves into trouble".

Our leaders are reluctant to implement more stringent restrictions, but he pandemic is spreading and hospitals are becoming strained.

We need to clamp down until there is a vaccine available. The "voluntary" restrictions have failed in Canada, just as they have everywhere else.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/fauci-coronavirus-canada-covid-19-vaccines-1.5805254


----------



## OptsyEagle

The news briefing today for Ontario said that Ontario expects to receive 1.6 million doses from Pfizer and 800K doses from Moderna, between January 2021 and March 2021.









Ontario to receive combined 2.4 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in early 2021: Elliott


Ontario expects to receive a combined 2.4 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines during the first three months of 2021 with more to follow after that, Health Minister Christine Elliott says.




www.cp24.com





We will have to see. I think that works out to 1.2 million vaccinations in Ontario when one considers that 2 injections are required.


----------



## sags

That is the kind of announcement that serves no useful purpose, unless the Ford government is trying to defend a position that no further restrictions are needed, because a vaccine is coming in a couple months.

First...the vaccines have to be received by the Federal government, and then the vaccine will have to be studied and approved by Canadian regulators.

Then it will be released to the Provinces, and then be distributed to long term homes, hospitals, and some essential workers.

Clearly the initial quantites of vaccines expected by the Federal government will not be nearly enough to vaccinate the general population.

_The shipments that the Ford government expects to receive in early 2021 will come from the *four million doses of the Pfizer vaccine* and *two million doses* of the Moderna vaccine that the federal government is expected to receive in that time period, Elliott said. _


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> In other COVID news, Dr. Fauci is warning Canada "is getting themselves into trouble".
> 
> Our leaders are reluctant to implement more stringent restrictions, but he pandemic is spreading and hospitals are becoming strained.
> 
> We need to clamp down until there is a vaccine available. The "voluntary" restrictions have failed in Canada, just as they have everywhere else.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/fauci-coronavirus-canada-covid-19-vaccines-1.5805254


Reading the whole quote, in context he's saying that the US and EU area disaster, and Canada has been doing relatively well, but we're headed down the same path.

I think anyone looking at the situation will come to a similar conclusion.
It's actually surprising we've done better, or at least held out a bit longer since we're culturally very similar to both.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> That is the kind of announcement that serves no useful purpose, unless the Ford government is trying to mislead people into believing no further restrictions are needed.
> 
> First......the vaccines have to be received by the Federal government, and then the vaccine will have to be studied and approved by Canadian regulators.
> 
> Then it will be released to the Provinces, and then be distributed to long term homes, hospitals, and some essential workers.
> 
> The last paragraph of the article sums it up, and in event the quantity expected by the Federal government will not be nearly enough to vaccinate the population.
> 
> _The shipments that the Ford government expects to receive in early 2021 will come from the four million doses of the Pfizer vaccine and two million doses of the Moderna vaccine that the federal government is expected to receive in that time period, Elliott said. _


The approval process is already happening, it's mostly a paperwork exercise reviewing their data.
It isn't like the government goes and does another round of safety testing.

It's not just a rubber stamp, but it isn't a "full evaluation" either.


----------



## bgc_fan

sags said:


> *The U.S. is positioned to receive some of the American-made vaccines first*, because taxpayers there helped to fund most of the front-end costs of developing those drugs through the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed.


That may only apply for Moderna, Pfizer specifically opted out of Operation Warp Speed development funding because of the possible conflict. The pre-orders may be part of Operation Warp Speed, but Pfizer was pretty clear that they did not take any funding for R&D.


----------



## sags

I hope the optimists are right and I am wrong, but I am having enough trouble getting a flu shot this year. Nobody has any available.

Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliot said there was no shortage of flu shots, but the pharmacies and doctors don't have any......so maybe she is "expecting" doses of those to come as well. She doesn't seem to have a handle on things and the health portfolio is a little beyond her capacity.

Prior to the COVID......the Ford government ceased all audits of long term homes and it led to disaster. His response was to say they would get a panel together in 2021. After the military and others got the situation under control, the Ford government did nothing to improve the situation. Now with COVID rising in the nursing homes what does Ford do.......pass Bill 215 absolving long term homes from lawsuits effective last March.

I would now have to judge the Ontario Ford government revealing themselves to be "basically useless" in a crisis.

I don't trust anything they say.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> I hope the optimists are right and I am wrong, but I am having enough trouble getting a flu shot this year. Nobody has any available.


 ... did you call your family physician (if you have one) to get a schedule of his/her ration. Keep calling or have him/her call back to notify you once it's in. I had mine's there despite the shots were available also at 2 major pharmacies (by appointment).



> Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliot said there was no shortage of flu shots, but the pharmacies and doctors don't have any......so maybe she is "expecting" doses of those to come as well. She doesn't seem to have a handle on things and the health portfolio is a little beyond her capacity.


 ... if I recall correctly, it was announced in the news that this year flu shots' order for Ontario was an extra 25% supply so there is no excuse for a shortage unless some health professional(s) are hoarding the supply for whatever reason.

However, there was one announcement Ms. Elliott made a week (or 2 ago) where she stated Ontario's Covid19 infected numbers are going down or should be going down. This got me scratching my head as those numbers are NOT going down with less tests (about 26K latest) being conducted and the positive number staying more or less than the same (plus or minus 100) at range of 1,200 to 1,400 mean the exact OPPOSITE, the numbers are going UP. Ms. Elliott either needs to re-learn her math or don't start misleading us ... not going to do her good.



> I would now have to judge the Ontario Ford government revealing themselves as "basically useless" in a crisis.


 ... to be fair to them, the pandemic is a precedent and they're doing the best they can as they go. Perhaps by the seat of their pants.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> That is the kind of announcement that serves no useful purpose, unless the Ford government is trying to defend a position that no further restrictions are needed, because a vaccine is coming in a couple months.
> 
> First...the vaccines have to be received by the Federal government, and then the vaccine will have to be studied and approved by Canadian regulators.
> 
> Then it will be released to the Provinces, and then be distributed to long term homes, hospitals, and some essential workers.
> 
> Clearly the initial quantites of vaccines expected by the Federal government will not be nearly enough to vaccinate the general population.
> 
> _The shipments that the Ford government expects to receive in early 2021 will come from the *four million doses of the Pfizer vaccine* and *two million doses* of the Moderna vaccine that the federal government is expected to receive in that time period, Elliott said. _


I think you read more into that then what was said. The Ford government is simply answering the question on Vaccine timing with the information they were given. I posted it because we were actually asking the very same question.

Now will some idiots out there use the answer to lower their guard? Of course they will, but they would have been doing that anyway just from the Pfizer and Moderna announcements previously. If you are an idiot, you do not need the Premier to say something to get you to do the wrong thing. An idiot will do the wrong thing from anyone saying anything that makes them think it is OK now to be an idiot. That is what makes them an idiot.

I hope that helps.


----------



## sags

We have no guard to let down.

Canadians aren't taking this seriously, and our leaders are treading water hoping for a quick vaccine miracle.

The other day I went to my lawyers office to drop off some paperwork and the people in the waiting room were not wearing masks.
(the virus is spreading in offices)

The schools have kids wearing masks all day, except for recess and lunch. What is the point of wearing a mask the rest of the time ?
(the virus is spreading in schools)

Retirement homes mandate employees have to take a COVID test if they call in sick. They have to await the results before they can return to work.
But the residents come and go all day. They leave to have Thanksgiving Dinner with their families and come back. There is no restrictions on them.
(the virus is spreading in long term and retirement homes)

If Dr. Fauci says Canada is heading for trouble, I believe him. Trudeau has also warned the Premiers they aren't taking it seriously enough.

Unfortunately, they aren't listening. We will be just like the US if we don't shut down now.


----------



## sags

Doug Ford is using the same kind of logic as the "denier" side, by saying that 99% of school kids haven't got COVID yet.

Only .002% of people die from hypothermia, but that doesn't mean people shouldn't wear a coat in the winter.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Doug Ford is using the same kind of logic as the "denier" side, by saying that 99% of school kids haven't got COVID yet.
> 
> Only .002% of people die from hypothermia, but that doesn't mean people shouldn't wear a coat in the winter.


Ridiculous analogy.

Consider 0.012% of the population die in car accidents. Should we ban all driving. No, because the odds are good and we feel the benefits are worth it. It's the same with school. We have to educate our children. It may increase the infection rate slightly, but it's worth it.

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> We have no guard to let down.
> 
> Canadians aren't taking this seriously, and our leaders are treading water hoping for a quick vaccine miracle.
> 
> The other day I went to my lawyers office to drop off some paperwork and the people in the waiting room were not wearing masks.
> (the virus is spreading in offices)


Where was this?
Yes if people ignore the restrictions, it will get worse.



> The schools have kids wearing masks all day, except for recess and lunch. What is the point of wearing a mask the rest of the time ?
> (the virus is spreading in schools)


Please provide a source.
From my understanding the schools aren't actually spreading. 
As I have school aged kids I'm watching this closely, and it seems that school outbreaks have been very limited in my area.

They wear a mask, except when they're putting food in their mouths, or when they're outside and distant.
Wearing masks is about reducing risk, not eliminating it.



> Retirement homes mandate employees have to take a COVID test if they call in sick. They have to await the results before they can return to work.
> But the residents come and go all day. They leave to have Thanksgiving Dinner with their families and come back. There is no restrictions on them.
> (the virus is spreading in long term and retirement homes)
> 
> If Dr. Fauci says Canada is heading for trouble, I believe him. Trudeau has also warned the Premiers they aren't taking it seriously enough.
> 
> Unfortunately, they aren't listening. We will be just like the US if we don't shut down now.


We know you want a lockdown, but lockdowns are bad for mental health. Doug Ford just allocated millions more for mental health problems, which are increasing during this crisis.
As well other problems, such as domestic violence are increasing.

Lockdowns and restrictions do a lot of harm to people, the harm of lockdown restrictions must be balanced to the risks of COVID exposure.


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> Ridiculous analogy.
> 
> Consider 0.012% of the population die in car accidents. Should we ban all driving. No, because the odds are good and we feel the benefits are worth it. It's the same with school. We have to educate our children. It may increase the infection rate slightly, but it's worth it.
> 
> ltr


Most people clamouring for locking down the schools don't understand, or simply don't care about the harm it does to the kids.
If you saw how happy they were to get back to school you might understand how horribly isolating it was for them.


----------



## sags

There is no restriction on people taking their kids out to parks or recreational areas.

Our grandson loves basketball, so I took him to some hoops behind a school and we were the only ones there. Take the kids for a walk down a trail and have them explore nature. Take them fishing on a riverbank. Take them for a drive in the car and stop along farm roads so they can see the animals, talk about the crops, and breathe the air. Have them learn to paint with oils or acrylic paint. There are some great tutorials online. Have them learn to play checkers, chess, or card games. Give them an old fashioned game board like Chinese checkers. Have them learn how to cook and bake.

There are many useful skills that are valuable and never taught in schools. Now is a perfect time for parents to teach those skills.

We did it with our son. Our son is doing it with his boys. Parents can do it if they want to.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Expert pathologist denounces over reaction to Covid. He is in the business of selling Covid tests, so he is going against his own interest to speak out this way, as well as inviting criticism. This makes him more credible and deserving of respect.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> There is no restriction on people taking their kids out to parks or recreational areas.
> 
> Our grandson loves basketball, so I took him to some hoops behind a school and we were the only ones there. Take the kids for a walk down a trail and have them explore nature. Take them fishing on a riverbank. Take them for a drive in the car and stop along farm roads so they can see the animals, talk about the crops, and breathe the air. Have them learn to paint with oils or acrylic paint. There are some great tutorials online. Have them learn to play checkers, chess, or card games. Give them an old fashioned game board like Chinese checkers. Have them learn how to cook and bake.
> 
> There are many useful skills that are valuable and never taught in schools. Now is a perfect time for parents to teach those skills.
> 
> We did it with our son. Our son is doing it with his boys. Parents can do it if they want to.


Must be nice to be independently wealthy where you don't have to work to pay the bills.


----------



## sags

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Expert pathologist denounces over reaction to Covid. He is in the business of selling Covid tests, so he is going against his own interest to speak out this way, as well as inviting criticism. This makes him more credible and deserving of respect.


Wow.......that is quite interesting and the doctor appears to be well qualified and legitimate.

I would wonder about comparing the COVID to the normal flu though, considering the number of hospitalizations, ICU and ventilator cases there are.

He basically is saying to lock down long term homes and the vulnerable and let the virus run it's course...basically herd mentality.

Has that worked out well anywhere else ? I believe Sweden tried it and then got hit hard. The UK tried it for a short period of time and then changed.

China has among the world's lowest numbers and they locked down hard, so there is evidence a stiff lockdown it worked there.

Food for thought though.


----------



## Beaver101

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Expert pathologist denounces over reaction to Covid. He is in the business of selling Covid tests, so he is going against his own interest to speak out this way, as well as inviting criticism. This makes him more credible and deserving of respect.


 ... an expert "pathologist" in the business of selling Covid tests denounces overreaction to the (Covid) pandemic...hmmm.... on the making him more credible and deserving of respect. LMAO ... that should be a NOT on respect & credibility. 

For one, the "over-reaction" is his last concern or the need for his pathological "expertise" as everyone would have been dead then. Plus no need for his invented test.


----------



## s1231

MrMatt said:


> We know you want a lockdown, but lockdowns are bad for mental health. Doug Ford just allocated millions more for mental health problems, which are increasing during this crisis.
> As well other problems, such as domestic violence are increasing.


perhaps, we could consider this,
then research + start try improving our immune system (individual, small, large scale).
***important: avoid excess,
need find individual balancing levels / amounts 
* edited for proper quote 
---








WHO official urges world leaders to stop using lockdowns as primary virus control method


The World Health Organization’s special envoy on COVID-19 urged world leaders this week to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method.”




www.washingtonexaminer.com




Nabarro went on to point out several of the negative consequences lockdowns have caused across the world, including devastating tourism industries and increased hunger and poverty.
.....In the United States, lockdowns have been tied to increased thoughts of suicide from children, a surge in drug overdoses, an uptick in domestic violence, and a study conducted in May concluded that stress and anxiety from lockdowns could destroy seven times the years of life that lockdowns potentially save.
---





__





Levels of salivary immunoglobulin A under psychological stress and its relationship with rumination and five personality traits in medical students






scielo.isciii.es




Studies show that acute stress can reduce the performance of the immune system and suppress the production of immunoglobulin. The effects of stress and negative emotions on the levels of IgA are one of the major issues in the field of psychoneuro immunology studies.
Recently, the measurement of salivary immunoglobulin A (sIgA) is another potential non-invasive method for the measurement of stress. The IgA is the most frequent class of antibodies in mucous membrane, which is a very important factor in the protection against infectious agents, allergy, and external proteins and has a concentration that can be affected by stress.

---








Low IgA Levels? 21 Ways to Improve Immune Health - SelfHacked


Low IgA signals weakened immunity. Read here about the dietary and lifestyle factors research suggests may increase IgA levels.




selfhacked.com




- Normal IgA levels protect the body against infections, allergies, and autoimmunity.
*Gut bacteria may be important for IgA* production.
Germ-free mice have greatly reduced IgA production in the gut. Even a single strain of bacteria can effectively promote the production of gut IgA in germ-free mice


----------



## sags

What is the trade off that people are willing to accept to keep the economy open ?

I agree that lock downs are bad. I think letting the virus run wild and overrunning the healthcare system with the sick and dying is worse.


----------



## Retired Peasant

MrMatt said:


> Most people clamouring for locking down the schools don't understand, or simply don't care about the harm it does to the kids.
> If you saw how happy they were to get back to school you might understand how horribly isolating it was for them.


Yeah, all those kids that are home schooled are severely harmed. Their parents should be charged with child abuse/neglect.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Experts told us from the start that masks and social distancing would NOT stop the virus, at best they would slow it down so as not to overwhelm the health care system. It turned out the Covid virus was much less dangerous than they feared, no worse than a bad flu season as Dr Hodkinson points out. Now there are 2 new vaccines ready to go and more in the works. It seems likely the vaccines will be out by the end of the year and the crisis will be over early next year
I still think some people are over reacting, even though I am on the list of those in most danger from the virus (over 65 with underlying health issues).


----------



## MrMatt

Retired Peasant said:


> Yeah, all those kids that are home schooled are severely harmed. Their parents should be charged with child abuse/neglect.


Charged for keeping their kids socially isolated in accordance with the law?

So are you saying that the lockdowns are abusive? 

I think they're psychologically harmful, but it's a balance with the risks of COVID, which for kids is low, which is why I think schools should remain open.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> I think they're psychologically harmful, but it's a balance with the risks of COVID, which for kids is low, which is why I think schools should remain open.


And what would be the psychological harm to a child getting covid at school, passing it on to one or both parents resulting in a death?


----------



## james4beach

B.C. has made masks mandatory in public indoor spaces and retail. Nobody should be meeting with anyone outside their household.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-brings-in-sweeping-new-measures-to-control-covid-19-including-mandatory-masks-1.5808617


----------



## Money172375

Wondering if this could lead To other coronavirus vaccines......ex, common cold?


----------



## like_to_retire

cainvest said:


> And what would be the psychological harm to a child getting covid at school, passing it on to one or both parents resulting in a death?


It would be bad, but is that sound reasoning to not send children to school? I could tell you that there will be a certain number of children killed in car accidents. Given the known risk, do we decide that there should be no driving of cars? No, because the risk is low enough that we decide that it's worth it. Same as school.

ltr


----------



## cainvest

like_to_retire said:


> It would be bad, but is that sound reasoning to not send children to school? I could tell you that there will be a certain number of children killed in car accidents. Given the known risk, do we decide that there should be no driving of cars? No, because the risk is low enough that we decide that it's worth it. Same as school.
> 
> ltr


Car vs Covid ... not an great analogy IMO but your point is understood. Guess it would depend on the level of covid cases around and at the schools. As of now, they do close schools here (for a short period of time) with community spread.

I think, if this were to go long term (many years) without a vaccine, other options could and need to be explored. Options that would further reduce risk and also provide relief to teachers that appear to be getting stressed.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> And what would be the psychological harm to a child getting covid at school, passing it on to one or both parents resulting in a death?


Higher, but you have to look at expected value to balance that risk.

Schools are screened and monitored, not as well as hospitals, but much better than most other public areas.
The mask rules are enforced, again unlike public areas.
They have contact tracing, which restaurants do seem to have, but stores do not.

The result is very few kids get COVID19 from schools.

In London, we are currently at a spike, of 120 active cases in the region, 11 in the hospital, the population of the city alone is over 400k. 
The risk to kids of getting COVID is very low.

If you're at risk, keep your kids home, otherwise the risk is very low.

Now contrast that to the cost of isolation
Most kids will suffer some impact from the isolation, some will suffer increased levels of abuse and domestic violence.

So we have a very unlikely but very tramatic event (COVID)
vs high indicence less tramatic (isolation

I'll agree it's not an easy decision, but I think with the incredibly low rates we're seeing here school makes sense.


Personally I think they should close restaurants and even in person shopping (for most items) before they even consider closing schools.


----------



## sags

The numbers are pretty good for our area, but the infections are wide spread in age and location.

The latest cases have involved mostly younger people. Of the 23 new cases only 5 were 60 years of age and older.

We need to remain vigilant to keep the numbers low.


23 new cases reported today but total cases went up by 22 (19 residents of London, 2 of Middlesex Centre and 1 of Southwest Middlesex; Ages: 7 age 0-19, 6 age 20-29, 3 age 30-39, 1 age 50-59, 1 age 60-69, 1 age 70-79 and 3 age 80+). One is a long-term care home staff.
We are averaging 14 new cases per day (on average, 4 of those have "no known link").
No deaths and 17 recoveries reported today.
Hospitalization Update: LHSC is reporting 11 in-patients with COVID-19 (up from 8 on Monday). :-(
Outbreak Update: No outbreaks declared today. We currently have 2 outbreaks at LHSC University Hospital (4IP General Medicine and 9IP Orthopedic).
School / Child Care Update: No new cases today. We have now had 38 total cases (3 childcare/early years, 22 elementary, 13 secondary).


----------



## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> Wondering if this could lead To other coronavirus vaccines......ex, common cold?


Maybe ... if somehow the economics shift enough and/or there is gov't will.

Back in the spring, a biotech investor being interviewed said the challenge this situation was funding. If the vaccine was 90% effective with about 20% of colds from about the three that cause them - the market was too small where he could only find a few willing to fund a small part of what was needed.


Cheers


----------



## sags

The US is facing a catastrophic situation.

There are too many people who just don't care and some are even denying they have COVID while lying in the hospital bed with COVID.

Over capacity hospitals, rationed healthcare, exhausted doctors and nurses, freezer trucks morgues........don't seem to be enough for them to change.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Just keep our borders closed.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Just keep our borders closed.


Or close them to non-essential travel, and enforce the quarantine on anyone entering for non-essential reasons.

Like they say they've been doing for most of the year.. it's about time they actually do it.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> Wondering if this could lead To other coronavirus vaccines......ex, common cold?


 ... don't think so as can you imagine how many vaccines (or their variations) will be required, especially those that are not as deadly as Covid19? That's like looking for the Cure-All Holy Grail. 

Besides, we have flu-shots (that runs parallel to those viruses' mutations) so that should account for something. Last I read was as of date, the incidence of the seasonal "flu" is down by 98%. That's dramatic. 

It would be nice, however, if the development of Covid19 vaccine can help immunize us against other coronaviruses ... thereby prevent us from getting the regular flu or cold. That would be the closest silver bullet against "coronaviruses".


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... don't think so as can you imagine how many vaccines (or their variations) will be required, especially those that are not as deadly as Covid19? That's like looking for the Cure-All Holy Grail.
> 
> Besides, we have flu-shots (that runs parallel to those viruses' mutations) so that should account for something. Last I read was as of date, the incidence of the seasonal "flu" is down by 98%. That's dramatic.


Infectious diesease control measures that stop COVID also stop the flu.

But if you make wild assumptions that if we did nothing and the flu spread 50x as much, if we did nothing for covid we'd be looking at much higher spready (arguably 50x) which would be about half of the Canadian population.


----------



## Eclectic12

Beaver101 said:


> ... don't think so as can you imagine how many vaccines (or their variations) will be required, especially those that are not as deadly as Covid19? That's like looking for the Cure-All Holy Grail ...


Where one is talking coronavirus - there reported to be four that cause the common cold with mild to moderate symptoms. For humans, there are reported to be seven, in total.

Where one is talking all the different ones that cause a common cold there are other types including the Rhinovirus, RSV as well as Parainfluenza. Part of each year's list are the "unknown" ones.




Beaver101 said:


> Besides, we have flu-shots (that runs parallel to those viruses' mutations) so that should account for something.


For influenza, yes - for corona, nada. For some years, the guess as to which influenza virus will be circulated widely is well off the mark so that the flu shot is reported to be 10% effective. In a good year, it's 60% effective with the average being 40%.




Beaver101 said:


> .. It would be nice, however, if the development of Covid19 vaccine can help immunize us against other coronaviruses ... thereby prevent us from getting the regular flu or cold.


Good luck with that as it would deal with three of two hundred (i.e. 0.015%) of those that cause the common cold.


Cheers


----------



## Beaver101

^ Based on the details in your post, the short answer to Money's question is "no".


----------



## Eclectic12

Seems more likely as lucky side effect, where the covid -19 vaccine ends up being effective or somewhat effective for the four ones that cause the common cold.
The combination of mild to moderate symptoms with about 20% from the four makes the economics tough.

Cheers


----------



## Money172375

Hot spots in Ontario returning to March-like lockdowns.









Toronto is under a 28-day COVID-19 lockdown starting Monday. Here’s what that means


Premier Doug Ford has moved Toronto to a 28-day lockdown.




www.thestar.com


----------



## james4beach

Donald Trump Junior has COVID-19 ... just one of many in the White House who've caught it.


----------



## andrewf

Giuliani's son also tested positive, so he is isolating and not attending court proceedings. Though he might have done it anyway to avoid the embarrassment of he press conference with his just for men was running down the rivers of sweat on his face.


----------



## sags

People are safer in the COVID wing of a hospital than in the White House.

_Hello......you have reached the White House. The government is sick right now and unable to come to the phone. Please leave your name and......_


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> Hot spots in Ontario returning to March-like lockdowns.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toronto is under a 28-day COVID-19 lockdown starting Monday. Here’s what that means
> 
> 
> Premier Doug Ford has moved Toronto to a 28-day lockdown.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thestar.com


 ... inevitable given the fast rising infection number. 

Now the enforcement side better come through (if not more stringent) otherwise this exercise will be all for naught except for small businesses ... becoming more than just collateral damages.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> People are safer in the COVID wing of a hospital than in the White House.
> 
> _Hello......you have reached the White House. The government is sick right now and unable to come to the phone. Please leave your name and......_


 ... at least the # hasn't been disconnected. 

President Biden needs to set up a new number for the WH.... and quickly too.


----------



## sags

Biden will likely need to buy new paintings and furniture as well. The Grifter family is moving out. Trump Ebay store coming soon......


----------



## OptsyEagle

Did I read it right that in Manitoba now their restrictions are that you can go into a retail store but can only buy certain essential items, as opposed to whatever the retail store normally sells.

Am I right, and if so, am I missing something? What to heck is that? Sounds more like a punishment then a precaution. We certainly need a spanking but I am pretty sure I could focus my spanks more precisely then that.


----------



## sags

Sounds idiotic to me. Who decides what is essential or not ? No wonder people don't know what they are supposed to do.

Beaver 101 is right upthread.....if they allow the pandemic to get out of control, all those billions of dollars spent are wasted.

No wonder Trudeau is getting frustrated and telling the Provinces that Federal financial support is not infinite.


----------



## Money172375

OptsyEagle said:


> Did I read it right that in Manitoba now their restrictions are that you can go into a retail store but can only buy certain essential items, as opposed to whatever the retail store normally sells.
> 
> Am I right, and if so, am I missing something? What to heck is that? Sounds more like a punishment then a precaution. We certainly need a spanking but I am pretty sure I could focus my spanks more precisely then that.


I did hear that too. Ie. Walmart needs to block off sections that are deemed non-essential.


----------



## Money172375

Money172375 said:


> I did hear that too. Ie. Walmart needs to block off sections that are deemed non-essential. I suppose they’re targeting the loiterers and “window shoppers”. Get what you need and get out.
> 
> while I think some measures we see in Canada are a bit odd, I do believe that until people “feel” like things are different, they won’t change Behaviour. Closing all or parts of retail “sends a message” that the public understands.


----------



## sags

Advocates and family members say the second wave of the pandemic in long term homes is worse than the first wave.

They say that despite pledges by Ontario Premier Ford to make the changes necessary, nothing has been done since March.

It is notable that conservative media are now criticizing Ford's lack of leadership on the issue. The one thing he did do was enact legislation that severely limits financial liability for long term homes and the ability of family members to hold them accountable. He made the law retroactive to last March which causes problems for lawsuits that have already been filed. It appears the long term home lobby has considerable influence in the Ford government.

It is baffling why Ford thought nobody would notice. Nobody supports letting old folks suffer and die in those conditions.

Trudeau should declare emergency measures and send the military into the homes to clean them up. They can argue about "jurisdictions" later.









LEVY: Families heartbroken as long-term care home devastation 'worse' in second wave


Out of desperation, Toronto resident Elly Miller went to her 99-year-old mom’s long-term care home a few weeks ago and practically had to break in order to see…




torontosun.com


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Biden will likely need to buy new paintings and furniture as well. The Grifter family is moving out. *Trump Ebay store coming soon*......


 ... ewww, who wants to touch the dirty Dump stuff even.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> I did hear that too. Ie. Walmart needs to block off sections that are deemed non-essential.


 ... that's indeed idiotic. You can control traffic into the store but to block off what that they deem as "non-essentials" or "essentials" is a really puzzling move for a retailer.

By then I heard from a friend (in ON) just this past week, Walmart (CanadianTire too) wants to desist their online store in order to encourage or bring back the traditional "in-store" shoppers. Something is really screwy up at Walmart "Canada." Maybe Canadian Tire wants to follow that route too. (Not a fan of either store so really doesn't matter to me.)


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Advocates and family members say the second wave of the pandemic in long term homes is worse than the first wave.
> 
> They say that despite pledges by Ontario Premier Ford to make the changes necessary, nothing has been done since March.
> 
> It is notable that conservative media are now criticizing Ford's lack of leadership on the issue. The one thing he did do was enact legislation that severely limits financial liability for long term homes and the ability of family members to hold them accountable. He made the law retroactive to last March which causes problems for lawsuits that have already been filed. It appears the long term home lobby has considerable influence in the Ford government.
> *
> It is baffling why Ford thought nobody would notice. Nobody supports letting old folks suffer and die in those conditions.*
> 
> Trudeau should declare emergency measures and send the military into the homes to clean them up. They can argue about "jurisdictions" later.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LEVY: Families heartbroken as long-term care home devastation 'worse' in second wave
> 
> 
> Out of desperation, Toronto resident Elly Miller went to her 99-year-old mom’s long-term care home a few weeks ago and practically had to break in order to see…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> torontosun.com


 ... you have to recall Ford's MIL was/is in one of those homes.


----------



## sags

We are also experiencing a shortage of seasonal flu shots. I hope the Province does a better job of distributing a COVID vaccine.

I think we need some changes in Ontario healthcare, starting with the Health Minister. She doesn't appear to know what is going on.

It is one thing to have a vaccine created. It might be another to actually get a shot.

_Beyond the flu shot, the pandemic has exposed “a vaccination crisis,” he said. A recent national poll suggests one-third of children aren’t getting their routine shots, because there is less access to primary care. Pharmacies, with their flexible hours, could fill in, he said.
That gets us to the COVID-19 vaccine, which will need every corner of health care to protect people. “There’s some lessons learned here for the eventual distribution of the COVID vaccine where we expect demand to be much higher than it is for the seasonal flu shot,” he said._









Sims: Want a flu shot? Getting one during this pandemic is tricky


I made a promise to myself last summer that I would roll up my sleeve this fall and get a flu shot.




lfpress.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> We are also experiencing a shortage of seasonal flu shots. I hope the Province does a better job of distributing a COVID vaccine.
> 
> I think we need some changes in Ontario healthcare, starting with the Health Minister. She doesn't appear to know what is going on.
> 
> It is one thing to have a vaccine created. It might be another to actually get a shot.
> 
> _Beyond the flu shot, the pandemic has exposed “a vaccination crisis,” he said. A recent national poll suggests one-third of children aren’t getting their routine shots, because there is less access to primary care. Pharmacies, with their flexible hours, could fill in, he said.
> That gets us to the COVID-19 vaccine, which will need every corner of health care to protect people. “There’s some lessons learned here for the eventual distribution of the COVID vaccine where we expect demand to be much higher than it is for the seasonal flu shot,” he said._
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sims: Want a flu shot? Getting one during this pandemic is tricky
> 
> 
> I made a promise to myself last summer that I would roll up my sleeve this fall and get a flu shot.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> lfpress.com


They have more flu shots available than before, demand is just many times more than normal.
Also the demand is much more front loaded than before.

The supply with catch up, and I expect that we'll still end up disposing of a few hundred thousand unwanted doses at the end of season.

You keep complaining, but I'm not sure what you expect? Should they order enough for the whole population, twice the population? 
Also should they wait till they have all 5 million doses available before they start vaccinating? or should they vaccinate and order more as they see how it proceeds.

Finally this is all really administrative tasks and I think they're doing ok.
The ministry should set their projections and the minister should give them the OK unless they're clearly wrong.
Remember the minister, deputies and senior leadership are typically not experts in all the initiatives they're responsible for. 

We've got the biggest health crisis in modern history and I think they're doing pretty good.

You can complain about her all you want, but compare Ontario, or Canada as a whole to any other western jurisdiction. 
We're doing pretty good, better than the EU, better than the US.

Fortunately for all the incompetence of the various politicians, our actual workers and bureaucracy are pretty capable.


----------



## andrewf

I think it is a perception of fairness. Why is Walmart allowed to sell clothes when Old Navy cannot? I understand the appeal of this idea, but it is hard to police.


----------



## Money172375

I starting planning for our HOA to host a flue clinic in July. We had a pharmacist on board who was gonna come out and give shots to the approx 300 seniors who love hear. A lot of my neighbours thoughts I was crazy......“I’ll just go to my doctor or pharmacy”.

everything was on track until about a week before the flu shot was made available. Pharmacist told me they weren’t allowed to give shots “off-site” due to insurance reasons.

anyway....I predicted a shortage......I knew from the TP shortage, that there would be issues with the flu shot. Our industries are not designed to triple production in short periods.

off topic - yesterday was the first time in 8 months I saw LYSOL SPRAY in a store.


----------



## sags

There is no excuse for a shortage of flu shots. They knew about the added strain of a twin pandemic on our healthcare system.

On October 22, the Health Minister denied a shortage and said there were more than enough shots available.

On November 3, she said they were negotiating to buy more flu shots. They ordered 5 million for a population of 14 million, not nearly enough.

Premier Ford tried to blame the pharmacies for shortages by saying they "overbooked" patients. How stupid does he think we are.

The Ontario government has badly mishandled the COVID pandemic. We had the numbers low and Ford couldn't wait to open everything back up.

Today we set a new record of more than 1500 confirmed cases. Today's numbers are from infections contracted 2 weeks ago.

They will be even worse going forward. These are the people trusted to deliver the vaccinations to the people of Ontario ?

I don't believe what they say. I believe what they do and from long term homes to restrictions.....they have not done well.









Flu shots on hold for some frontline workers


Province says its procuring more doses to meet historic demand




www.nugget.ca


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Fortunately for all the incompetence of the various politicians, our actual workers and bureaucracy are pretty capable.


I think politicians (at least ours in Canada) are reasonably competent, and the government workers are also quite capable and competent. The bureaucracy is pretty solid.

It's popular to complain about government but I've worked with people on both sides (govt & private industry) and there's just as much incompetence and stupidity in both sectors.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> There is no excuse for a shortage of flu shots. They knew about the added strain of a twin pandemic on our healthcare system.
> 
> On October 22, the Health Minister denied a shortage and said there were more than enough shots available.
> 
> On November 3, she said they were negotiating to buy more flu shots. They ordered 5 million for a population of 14 million, not nearly enough.


 ... thought I saw the 2nd piece of news too and had my head scratching. Which is it? More than enough shots to go around in ON or not enough? As said previously, Ms. Elliott as Health Minister of ON needs to re-examine her math as well as those health officials that report to her.



> Premier Ford tried to blame the pharmacies for shortages by saying they "overbooked" patients. How stupid does he think we are.


 ... I didn't see this part. If it's true that he said this, I think there should be words coming from the provincial pharmacy association. No need to "deflect blame for a miscalculation", (if it was indeed a miscalculation). The mistake is still there - it needs to be fixed. And quick.



> The Ontario government has badly mishandled the COVID pandemic. We had the numbers low and Ford couldn't wait to open everything back up.
> 
> Today we set a new record of more than 1500 confirmed cases. Today's numbers are from infections contracted 2 weeks ago.
> 
> They will be even worse going forward. These are the people trusted to deliver the vaccinations to the people of Ontario ?


 .. can't blame Ford entirely. After-all he is a "politician" and you know how politicians typically "operate".

Anyhow, he's supposedly to be listening, relying and taking "advice" from his "health officials or "medical" "experts" in regards to the direction of the infection rate or how this pandemic (2nd wave) is going to impact ON. If he's not getting an accurate and honest assessment from these "experts", then his decision/actions will reflect the same. I get the sense the health officials are swaying too much on the political fence than acting as true "medical experts". Much like those docs at Walter Reed sucking up to the Dump.



> I don't believe what they say. I believe what they do and from long term homes to restrictions.....they have not done well.


 ... definitely need to do much much better. So far haven't heard of a (revised) "plan". And the public will only listen so much of the same, without the actual actions. And then there's the credibility issue.

I can say, at least Ontarians are in a better position than those east and south of our border. However, our politicians (and medical officials) shouldn't be resting on their laurels anytime soon as the virus (pandemic) is still with us.


----------



## Beaver101

Tory asks shoppers not to flock to malls, other retail stores ahead of lockdown

Here we go again. Panic shopping redux in TO.


----------



## sags

A lot of people believe the COVID will only be mild if they get it.

They should listen to the horror stories coming out of the US by nurses and doctors that actually work in the COVID wards.

One nurse said it is a catastrophic situation. They have every bed full and are short staffed. They have 10 rooms designated for COVID patients now and 1 is specifically to move patients into and let them die. The problem often is that one minute the patient is stable and the next minute all the warning buzzers are going off. The nurses and doctors rush from patient to patient trying to save them. It sounds more like a war zone MASH unit than a normal hospital setting. These stories are repeated over and over and over from across the US and we are following their path.......and people still aren't listening.

People of all ages are getting infected. People of all ages are getting sick and end up hospitalized. People of all ages are ending up in ICU units. People of all ages are dying. There is no safety in isolating the old and sick and waiting for herd immunity.

This is NOT a normal flu. It has early symptoms of an early flu.......but then it just takes off and accelerates the complications and symptoms.

It is a killer virus and people should look at it that way. But no, they are jamming into airports and airplanes, attending celebrations, and shopping.
I saw a report that 30% of Canadian snowbirds planned on heading south. Our leaders are breaking their own restrictions.

People don't believe bad things will happen to them. It is always "the other guy" it happens to.

Point is.....our leaders can dick around and shut this and restrict that, but the COVID continues on and eventually we will HAVE to close down.

People say we can't shut down.....but step by step we are getting there. A shutdown would be better sooner than later.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> There is no excuse for a shortage of flu shots. They knew about the added strain of a twin pandemic on our healthcare system.
> 
> On October 22, the Health Minister denied a shortage and said there were more than enough shots available.


Yes


> On November 3, she said they were negotiating to buy more flu shots. They ordered 5 million for a population of 14 million, not nearly enough.


Please supply a source that this is "not nearly enough"
They ordered far more flu shots than normal.



> Premier Ford tried to blame the pharmacies for shortages by saying they "overbooked" patients. How stupid does he think we are.


Not stupid at all.
He expects us to understand that if the pharmacy scheduled more appointments than they had vaccines for, it's the pharmacies fault.



> The Ontario government has badly mishandled the COVID pandemic. We had the numbers low and Ford couldn't wait to open everything back up.


Yup, and it was the right call.
You have to realize that Ontario is STILL doing better than most of the western world.



> Today we set a new record of more than 1500 confirmed cases. Today's numbers are from infections contracted 2 weeks ago.
> 
> They will be even worse going forward. These are the people trusted to deliver the vaccinations to the people of Ontario ?
> 
> I don't believe what they say. I believe what they do and from long term homes to restrictions.....they have not done well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Flu shots on hold for some frontline workers
> 
> 
> Province says its procuring more doses to meet historic demand
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nugget.ca


Good link
"He confirmed that demand for flu shots at pharmacies has risen 500 per cent from 2019."

Think about that, there is a massive increase in demand. 
FWIW I don't know anyone who had trouble getting a flu shot.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... that's indeed idiotic. You can control traffic into the store but to block off what that they deem as "non-essentials" or "essentials" is a really puzzling move for a retailer.
> 
> By then I heard from a friend (in ON) just this past week, Walmart (CanadianTire too) wants to desist their online store in order to encourage or bring back the traditional "in-store" shoppers. Something is really screwy up at Walmart "Canada." Maybe Canadian Tire wants to follow that route too. (Not a fan of either store so really doesn't matter to me.)


Walmart is expanding their online shopping.
They've even added fresh grocery delivery.

Canadian Tire online shopping is a disaster.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Walmart is expanding their online shopping.
> They've even added fresh grocery delivery.


Did our first curb-side pickup at Walmart yesterday ... went pretty well.
Highlights ...

they didn't have 6 items
substituted 2 items (good subs)
missed 1 item (cucumber)
one badly selected item (soft celery)

They credited back the cucumber and celery on the bill and the 6 items they didn't have. Wait time was ~20 minutes but likely that could have been less had we signaled them we were arriving sooner. Will use them again.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Did our first curb-side pickup at Walmart yesterday ... went pretty well.
> Highlights ...
> 
> they didn't have 6 items
> substituted 2 items (good subs)
> missed 1 item (cucumber)
> one badly selected item (soft celery)
> 
> They credited back the cucumber and celery on the bill and the 6 items they didn't have. Wait time was ~20 minutes but likely that could have been less had we signaled them we were arriving sooner. Will use them again.


I've been using them for 2 years.
Haven't had many issues, if they give the wrong item they'll often credit it for free, rather than driving back to return.

Also we got a box of Lindt chocolates at our 50th purchase, but nothing at our 100th, but that was during COVID panic and they were booked days in advance.

NoFrills pickup isn't as good, you have to go in store.

Walmart and Amazon have a battle, and it's going to be really tough, but I don't think anyone else is close in that market.

Costco is great, but their selection is limited. 
I love the ease of returns.


----------



## james4beach

What kind of curb-side pickup options exist for pedestrians? Can I walk up to the store and have them bring the items out to me?


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> What kind of curb-side pickup options exist for pedestrians? Can I walk up to the store and have them bring the items out to me?


I would think that would work at Walmart. Just go and stand in one of the nunnerved spots where the cars park.


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> Tory asks shoppers not to flock to malls, other retail stores ahead of lockdown
> 
> Here we go again. Panic shopping redux in TO.


The big box stores and grocers are staying open.....why are people rushing out this weekend to visit them?


----------



## andrewf

james4beach said:


> What kind of curb-side pickup options exist for pedestrians? Can I walk up to the store and have them bring the items out to me?


I don't see why not. You just call a number at the pickup stall.


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> The big box stores and grocers are staying open.....why are people rushing out this weekend to visit them?


People are dumb.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> What kind of curb-side pickup options exist for pedestrians? Can I walk up to the store and have them bring the items out to me?


They have a phone number in their app, call it and ask I guess.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> I don't see why not. You just call a number at the pickup stall.


Thanks for the responses and ideas. I might give this a try, depending on how bad the numbers get in my region.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> What kind of curb-side pickup options exist for pedestrians? Can I walk up to the store and have them bring the items out to me?





andrewf said:


> I don't see why not. You just call a number at the pickup stall.


At ToysRUs you walked up to the door.
At Canadian Tire, they were overwhelmed, but it was either in a spot, or walk to the door.
Canada Computers had a line at the door and spots.

You can't browse, but people need to chill out.
We've been through the problems with shopping, things weren't that bad last time.
My kids miss browsing, but personally I don't want anything, so it's no problem.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Things are bad. We need a hero.

Superman cannot help us. Spiderman just does not have the right stuff. Batman would be useless and we would get no help from Wonder Women.

I think we all know who we need to call.

The Grinch is the only one who can save us now. *The Grinch*, and his dutiful sidekick *Max*, need to steal Christmas this year and save us all.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I would nominate Premier Ford to be our (ON's) Grinch for this Xmas!


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ I would nominate Premier Ford to be our (ON's) Grinch for this Xmas!


yeah, trying to save lives is so Grinch!

Why don't you nominate Trump to take over, he'll be free in a few months.
Then you don't have to worry about leadership.


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> People are dumb.


 ... not necessarily as some of them are so shrewd that it blows my mind. Heard a friend of a friend of a friend who drove some "2 to 3 hours" from a northern ON city to "help out an (elderly) friend to shop" yesterday at one TO's best known mall up in North York before the "lockdown". Amazing friend(s).

Anyhow, I included the word "panic" in my post which was the cause.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> yeah, trying to save lives is so Grinch!
> 
> Why don't you nominate Trump to take over, he'll be free in a few months.


 ... being Grinch is too good of a job for the Dump. He's beyond help in my books.

Since Premier Ford has been given the quite unpleasant job of locking down ON, only logical to assign him the Grinch job this Xmas. 

Besides, Tory has taken the Santa's position. Elliott has the tooth fair position.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... not necessarily as some of them are so shrewd that it blows my mind. Heard a friend of a friend of a friend who drove some "2 to 3 hours" from a northern ON city to "help out an (elderly) friend to shop" yesterday at one TO's best known mall up in North York before the "lockdown". Amazing friend(s).
> 
> Anyhow, I included the word "panic" in my post which was the cause.


OMG, they purposely pulled an elderly person out into a busy shopping mall? 
During the pandemic?
Then went back to a Northern city?

Are people nuts? 
With "friends" like this, it's no wonder COVID is still spreading.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Yep, even her "kids" said she was loonie. I guess she needed retail therapy ...


----------



## sags

Tens of millions of Americans are getting their groceries by lining up for miles to get a small box of food.


----------



## sags

We have begun stocking up again. I got a bad feeling where this is heading and think we will eventually be totally locked down.

And yes........there will be shortages.

It doesn't take long to deplete store shelves and supplies sitting in the supply chain aren't much good to someone in a store.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Are they paying for it or is it the food banks?


----------



## Beaver101

Light at the end of the tunnel or this winter (for Ontarians)?

Premier Doug Ford enlists former head of the Canadian Armed Forces to oversee COVID-19 vaccine distribution in the province

Copying some text in case this goes behind a paywall.



> _The former head of the Canadian military will lead Ontario’s charge to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine, the Star has learned.
> 
> Retired Gen. Rick Hillier has been enlisted to chair the province’s new task force on the vaccine.
> 
> Hillier, who was chief of the defence staff of the Canadian Armed Forces from 2005 to 2008, was personally tapped by Premier Doug Ford, who will formally announce the appointment Monday.
> 
> “This is a military operation in the sense that the moment the vaccine hits our warehouses we want it deployed where it is most needed,” a senior government official said Sunday.
> 
> The insider, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations, said Hillier’s COVID-19 vaccine task force will also include “doctors, scientists, logistical experts and Indigenous leaders.”
> 
> *Between January and March, Ontario will receive 1.6 million doses of Pfizer’s new vaccine and 800,000 doses of Moderna’s vaccine.*
> 
> Each vaccine requires two shots, meaning Ontario’s initial allotment of 2.4 million doses will be dispensed to 1.2 million people in a province with a population of 14.5 million.
> 
> *The priority for the first wave of vaccination will be front-line health-care workers, such as doctors and nurses, and long-term care workers in nursing homes, scene of two-thirds of Ontario’s 3,500 COVID-19 deaths.*_ ...


----------



## bgc_fan

A new vaccine candidate from AstraZeneca. It's a more conventional vaccine so there is no requirement for the low temperatures required by Moderna or Pfizer. It is less effective though.








AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine shown to be effective and cheaper


Drugmaker AstraZeneca said Monday that late-stage trials showed its COVID-19 vaccine is highly effective, buoying the prospects of a relatively cheap, easy-to-store product that may become the vaccine of choice for the developing world.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto and Peel officially enter lockdown as Tory urges people to stay home

TO's mayor has been harping "Please Stay Home" for the past 2 days (Sat. & Sun.) while the city is going in a lock-down starting today (all non-essential stores closed). Who is/wants to listen to this turkey anymore??? Easy for him (and his ilks) to "stay home" and get paid doing what except ..harp, harp and harp.

In the meantime, Brampton's mayor is saying the lockdown for Peel will make no difference to slow the spread there given the impact affects the wrong places:



> _“I am a little bit concerned that this shutdown doesn’t focus on the largest area of spread. In Brampton our largest source of transmission is industrial settings. Our largest two sectors are transportation logistics and food processing and neither of those sectors are shut down because they are considered essential,” Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown told CP24 on Monday. “So this isn’t truly a lockdown for Brampton. Small businesses have been shut down but with the largest portion of our workforce being essential workers nothing has really changed.”_


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> yeah, trying to save lives is so Grinch!
> 
> Why don't you nominate Trump to take over, he'll be free in a few months.
> Then you don't have to worry about leadership.


I don't understand why Ford was waffling in late October/early November. It was clear where the trend was going. Had we acted earlier, the virus might have been knocked down enough to have a somewhat normal Christmas. At this point, I would not be surprised to see more of Ontario subject to lockdown by then.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I don't understand why Ford was waffling in late October/early November. It was clear where the trend was going. Had we acted earlier, the virus might have been knocked down enough to have a somewhat normal Christmas. At this point, I would not be surprised to see more of Ontario subject to lockdown by then.


Maybe he was hoping that people would voluntarily scale back enough, but they didn't.


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Are they paying for it or is it the food banks?


Food banks.


----------



## Beaver101

^ There's long line ups for that in TO also so it's not an uncommon sight ... and now even longer line ups.


----------



## sags

These lineups are miles long and full of people who never went to a food bank before.

Lots of people are laid off due to COVID and have no money. Many more are going to be laid off.

The COVID financial support package has been sitting on Mitch McConnell's desk since May.

I would think our government is going to have to initiate another CERB as well.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Maybe he was hoping that people would voluntarily scale back enough, but they didn't.


We already know that if you give people cover, they will freeload on other people's distancing efforts. This is why public mask wearing went from voluntary to mandatory and magically compliance went from 30% to 99%.


----------



## james4beach

Looking into the future, there were very nice developments today.

The Oxford University & AstraZeneca vaccine looks promising. This one is made from chimpanzee poop. Somewhat preliminary results, but it's good news.

Additionally, a new study on COVID antibodies seems to show that people remained immune for at least 6 months. And here's a second article on COVID immunity.

... I continue to think, as I have for months, that COVID will be more or less a non-issue in a year. The key thing right now is to avoid widespread deaths this winter and to avoid the collapse of our hospital systems. Medical workers, nurses and doctors, are extremely stressed out (facing exhaustion) so we're in a very dangerous position right now.

Our medical system is run by people, and the people are reaching their limits. I know a couple med people who were asked to help at hospital ICUs in Manitoba, and they refused. They said nope, I can't, I'm exhausted -- I'm not fit to work. This is a very bad situation. We've got to shut down things aggressively before the hospitals stop working.


----------



## newfoundlander61

Do people that have had COVID and are recovered still need to get the vaccine?


----------



## MrMatt

newfoundlander61 said:


> Do people that have had COVID and are recovered still need to get the vaccine?


We don't know.
Plus in Canada, they're still (fortunately) a very small number of people.


----------



## sags

It is amazing how much can be accomplished so quickly, when you pour enough resources into it. 

Perhaps there is a lesson to be learned here and "research and development" spending won't be at the top of the "cut" list for governments when doing budgets.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> It is amazing how much can be accomplished so quickly, when you pour enough resources into it.
> 
> Perhaps there is a lesson to be learned here and "research and development" spending won't be at the top of the "cut" list for governments when doing budgets.


You do realize that there has been a tremendous cost to this?

Other research was stopped, we've lots YEARS of progress in other research.

Yes, if we totally focus on a single issue, we're likely to see great progress there.
Myself I'd rather broad improvements across all aspects of society.


----------



## Beaver101

newfoundlander61 said:


> Do people that have had COVID and are recovered still need to get the vaccine?


 ... my deduction is a "yes" when herd immunity has not been proven to work.


----------



## Beaver101

Etobicoke restaurant opens indoor dining despite COVID-19 lockdown restrictions

Here's another attention-seeker. 

I don't know why the news reporter doesn't zoom in on the "ticket" the enforcement officers are supposedly to write. I would like to see at least a $5,000 number there for a start with today's date. The enforcement officers can return tomorrow with another $5,000 winning ticket for the bozo in compliance with the "laws". Or are there no lockdown laws over there in Etobicoke (Ford's home district)?


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> Etobicoke restaurant opens indoor dining despite COVID-19 lockdown restrictions
> 
> Here's another attention-seeker.
> 
> I don't know why the news reporter doesn't zoom in on the "ticket" the enforcement officers are supposedly to write. I would like to see at least a $5,000 number there for a start with today's date. The enforcement officers can return tomorrow with another $5,000 winning ticket for the bozo in compliance with the "laws". Or are there no lockdown laws over there in Etobicoke (Ford's home district)?


Just saw an update on this. police will be back tomorrow. The councillor was there too today. Councillor wants the parking lot blocked off. Seeking fines of $100,000. Parking tickets issued today for the restaurant guests. Rumours are that the restaurant may not hold a business license. Also saw that the owner may be a anti-masker who was ranting during the first waive too. Should make for more exciting news tomorrow. Police also said they will, but hope not to, forcefully remove people who dine in.


----------



## Money172375

CityNews just reported on this issue. A known white nationalist showed up to support the owner. A customer cried “give me liberty or give me death”.

wasn’t someone on CMF worried about US style politics/protests coming to Canada?


----------



## andrewf

The hang-over from COVID is going to be epic. This is the costliest disaster to befall humanity ever, and likely by an order of magnitude. What we should learn from this is that it pays to be prepared for pandemics--we should be treating it like national defense during the cold war. So many lives could have been saved, and reduced economic impact had we responded more coherently and had the right monitoring, processes, and supplies in place to address this pandemic. The unfortunate thing is that severe pandemics seem to be spread just far enough that we become complacent between them. A century between the Spanish flu and COVID-19, though I wager the next pandemic on this scale won't take 100 years.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> The hang-over from COVID is going to be epic. This is the costliest disaster to befall humanity ever, and likely by an order of magnitude.
> . . .
> The unfortunate thing is that severe pandemics seem to be spread just far enough that we become complacent between them. A century between the Spanish flu and COVID-19, though I wager the next pandemic on this scale won't take 100 years.


This is one aspect that angers me quite a bit.

A rag tag crew of 9/11 hijackers kills a few thousand people, and the US -- and the world -- mobilizes to a level never before seen in history. Something like 3,000 deaths became the basis for national spending in the $2 to $5 trillion mark (for war spending, weaponry, R&D, and social services for troops) for the US.

All these governments created entirely new departments. US created the enormous DHS. They boosted military funding to new heights. Entire new programs of study were created in universities. New think tanks and experts appeared.

And then something like this disease comes along, wipes out *orders of magnitude* more people .... dramatically worse than any terrorism we have seen ... and what happens?

The public, and government, will barely put any effort into solving these problems. What should happen now is a *Manhattan Project* style enormous project, either domestic or collaboration between countries. There should be hundreds of billions of $ poured into R&D, perhaps TRILLIONS of $ poured into R&D, to get scientists and researchers working on projects such as redesigning hospitals, redesigning the healthcare system / infrastructure, using modern data and analytics to improve healthcare, supply chains for emergencies/vaccines, understanding the psychology of public health, and disaster management in general...

I mean total re-design. Big stuff.

I would join such a project. Hell, I would quit whatever other work I'm doing and join such a 'Manhattan Project' to improve North American resilience to pandemics and natural disaster. I'll bet that huge numbers of other engineers, scientists, doctors would also join such a project.

Will it happen? Will the public want to put ANYWHERE close to the money they wasted "fighting terrorism" on this stuff?

I worked as a US government contractor. On more than one occasion, I met with government program managers and asked... aren't you concerned about problems similar [to terrorism], but for natural disasters? I pointed out that historically speaking, natural disasters kill far more people than terrorism.

The people always responded with the same thing: top leadership does not prioritize natural disasters. Everyone is worried about terrorism.

I bet you that even TODAY, there are probably still people who are more worried about terrorism than what's actively killing 100x more people than terrorism.

All the economic loss and GDP damage is our punishment for being such a stupid society that we fail to invest in ourselves, fail to plan for threats that can be seen from a mile away. If we don't want all this kind of damage, the psychological fallout and trauma, to happen again then it's pretty clear we have to do.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> The people always responded with the same thing: top leadership does not prioritize natural disasters. Everyone is worried about terrorism.
> 
> I bet you that even TODAY, there are probably still people who are more worried about terrorism than what's actively killing 100x more people than terrorism.
> 
> All the economic loss and GDP damage is our punishment for being such a stupid society that we fail to invest in ourselves, fail to plan for threats that can be seen from a mile away. If we don't want all this kind of damage, the psychological fallout and trauma, to happen again then it's pretty clear we have to do.


Too bad that democracy thing keeps getting in the way.

Face it Democracy sucks, the leaders pander to the wishes and whims of a self centered, mostly ignorant populace, who can't evaluate if they're doing a good job or not.

But it's better than the other systems.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> This is one aspect that angers me quite a bit.
> 
> ...
> 
> *Will it happen? Will the public want to put ANYWHERE close to the money they wasted "fighting terrorism" on this stuff?*
> 
> I worked as a US government contractor. On more than one occasion, I met with government program managers and asked... aren't you concerned about problems similar [to terrorism], but for natural disasters? I pointed out that historically speaking, natural disasters kill far more people than terrorism.
> 
> *The people always responded with the same thing: top leadership does not prioritize natural disasters. Everyone is worried about terrorism.
> 
> I bet you that even TODAY, there are probably still people who are more worried about terrorism than what's actively killing 100x more people than terrorism.*
> 
> All the economic loss and GDP damage is our punishment for being such a stupid society that we fail to invest in ourselves, fail to plan for threats that can be seen from a mile away. If we don't want all this kind of damage, the psychological fallout and trauma, to happen again then it's pretty clear we have to do.


 ... because these overly-smart public find "the politics" in countering "terrorism" to be ever ever so sexy. And the BIG BUSINESSES (aka $$$ to be made) are too lucrative to pass off.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... because these overly-smart public find "the politics" in countering "terrorism" to be ever ever so sexy. And the BIG BUSINESSES (aka $$$ to be made) are too lucrative to pass off.


Pretty much this. Terrorism is an easy propaganda sell and you can market with slick political advertisements to get the emotions going. Combating a virus isn't quite the same. Same with the big business. The industrial military complex is huge and lucrative. Pharmaceutical companies are also lucrative, but are backed by university research which isn't as profit driven and overall, doesn't employ the same numbers of low skilled labourers that a factory shop require. Easier to push for terrorism when you can guarantee lots of low skilled jobs instead of health which tend to have few high skilled jobs.


----------



## sags

Listen to the Republican politicians even today. They compare the COVID to the seasonal flu and argue that businesses should be wide open.

They don't seem capable of linking a wide open economy with a COVID spreading so rapidly that it overwhelms the health care system and creates such a panic that people stay home in fear. Businesses would be open but have no customers. They would have to pay employees but have no revenue.

A wide open economy would mean a total collapse of the economic system. They just don't seem able to comprehend that.


----------



## sags

There is also a basic human trait...bad stuff happens to the other guy...not to me.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> The public, and government, will barely put any effort into solving these problems. What should happen now is a *Manhattan Project* style enormous project, either domestic or collaboration between countries. There should be hundreds of billions of $ poured into R&D, perhaps TRILLIONS of $ poured into R&D, to get scientists and researchers working on projects such as redesigning hospitals, redesigning the healthcare system / infrastructure, using modern data and analytics to improve healthcare, supply chains for emergencies/vaccines, understanding the psychology of public health, and disaster management in general...
> 
> I mean total re-design. Big stuff.


I'll have to disagree with some the above ... dumping tons of money towards some unknown future virus threat is a waste of time IMO. I do agree that they should have an updated global pandemic playbook but this shouldn't be rocket science or cost billions of dollars to create.


----------



## sags

Lack of preparations and the handling of the pandemic is high lighted in the Ontario AG's scathing report on the government response.

I think the failures and delays support James4beach assertion there needs to be robust pre-pandemic strategies, planning and preparation.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-lab-testing-case-management-auditor-report-1.5814949



The handling of the crisis by predominately Conservative Provincial governments is having a negative impact on the Erin O' Toole's Federal Conservatives.

The Liberal and NDP Premiers may be just as bad, but there are many fewer of them.

The steep decline in public support for Alberta's Premier Kenney is notable, as it may put several Alberta ridings in play in a future Federal election.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-kenney-otoole-conservatives-1.5814485


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> I'll have to disagree with some the above ... dumping tons of money towards some unknown future virus threat is a waste of time IMO. I do agree that they should have an updated global pandemic playbook but this shouldn't be rocket science or cost billions of dollars to create.


My focus wouldn't be pandemic-specific, but a redesign and modernization of the hospital systems. This would improve healthcare both for pandemics but also other emergencies, and regular health.

Hospital systems are archaic, clunky machinery


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> ... because these overly-smart public find "the politics" in countering "terrorism" to be ever ever so sexy. And the BIG BUSINESSES (aka $$$ to be made) are too lucrative to pass off.


Very true. It's just great for business, like warfare in general.


----------



## sags

A systemic review and major changes must also be forthcoming regarding long term homes.

There must be regular inspections and audits, including unannounced visits by inspectors empowered to lay charges for non-compliance that are available to the public to view when considering where to place their loved ones.

The last thing the government should be doing is quickly pushing through legislation to remove most if not all liability for nursing homes. That is an unwarranted gift to the corporations that operate long term care homes and the insurance companies that issue policies to them. Who could feel secure placing their family members in any nursing home when a veil of secrecy shrouds the conditions in the homes ?

And yet incredibly.......that is what our Provincial government has done, making the law retroactive to last March to thwart ongoing private lawsuits from exposing the depth of the neglect. They don't want the public to know the extent of the neglect.

And now we learn that the health experts were not even included on the panel of experts advising the government, replaced instead by political insiders.

After a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars to battle the pandemic, we have to learn from the failures or we are doomed to repeat them.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> My focus wouldn't be pandemic-specific, but a redesign and modernization of the hospital systems. This would improve healthcare both for pandemics but also other emergencies, and regular health.
> 
> Hospital systems are archaic, clunky machinery


Some areas of healthcare could no doubt be improved but I'm not so sure for many hospital services. With regards to emergencies/pandemics, these are overflow situations that should be handled outside the normal services. With good planning such situations can be dealt with very well but, in case of pandemics, prevention (if possible) is the key.


----------



## Money172375

cainvest said:


> Some areas of healthcare could no doubt be improved but I'm not so sure for many hospital services. With regards to emergencies/pandemics, these are overflow situations that should be handled outside the normal services. With good planning such situations can be dealt with very well but, in case of pandemics, prevention (if possible) is the key.


When we moved to a smaller town (outside of a city of 30,000), we couldn’t find a family doctor. We had to take my son to the hospital for a plantar wart and my wife went for a minor issue (non-emerg). It was at the 2nd visit that the attending doctor was willing to take us on as his patients. Without an assigned doctor in this city, you cant even go to the walk-in clinics....you need to be a client of one of the assigned doctors. 
we’ve been back to the hospital for some broken bones, and at least half of the patients in the waiting room were there for visits that should be handled by family physicians or clinics. The trouble with our hospitals is only one sign that the entire industry is inefficient.

I know in Florida, pharmacists( or is it a nurse in the pharmacy?) can prescribe some drugs....although they keep pseudoephedrine behind the counter....Which I found weird....and it’s limited to one package per customer.....they even scanned my Ont DL when I bought it. I think dealers make illicit drugs from it.

my local township now has a virtual walk in clinic. You can meet with a doctor through virtual conference and he can prescribe treatment or meds for the the more common ailments,


----------



## Beaver101

GTA mayors urge residents to stay home, shop online and support local for Black Friday

The turkeys are garbling from the 2 sides of their mouths here.


----------



## like_to_retire

I'm reading that Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine is reportedly being flown by United Airlines chartered flights to distribution hubs in the USA and that they will be booking appointments in the next 14 days for citizens to receive the vaccine.

But then I read the articles where Trudeau "asked time and again by reporters when we might see a vaccine, *given the U.K. is already booking appointments and the U.S. is looking at a roll out two weeks from now*, Trudeau fumbled all over the place, often attempting bad sports analogies". 

He came out from his hidey hole to give us one of his platitudes saying "What really matters is when we get to cross the finish line.” Not to me. What matters to me is when I get the vaccine and why are we so far behind the rest of the world?

So basically, USA and UK are booking appointments and Canada, if everything works out, might get vaccines next fall? Is that about it? That seems to line up with the Astra Zeneca roll-out map with Canada next November.

ltr


----------



## cainvest

An interesting bit of information came out of the MB covid update today ... there have been no repeat cases reported. Granted we've only had ~17,000 cases but that is good news IMO.


----------



## andrewf

like_to_retire said:


> I'm reading that Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine is reportedly being flown by United Airlines chartered flights to distribution hubs in the USA and that they will be booking appointments in the next 14 days for citizens to receive the vaccine.
> 
> But then I read the articles where Trudeau "asked time and again by reporters when we might see a vaccine, *given the U.K. is already booking appointments and the U.S. is looking at a roll out two weeks from now*, Trudeau fumbled all over the place, often attempting bad sports analogies".
> 
> He came out from his hidey hole to give us one of his platitudes saying "What really matters is when we get to cross the finish line.” Not to me. What matters to me is when I get the vaccine and why are we so far behind the rest of the world?
> 
> So basically, USA and UK are booking appointments and Canada, if everything works out, might get vaccines next fall? Is that about it? That seems to line up with the Astra Zeneca roll-out map with Canada next November.
> 
> ltr


You're being a bit fast and loose there. The same map shows US as May, not now. What is that timeline? To deliver all of the contracted doses? Canada is getting doses of some vaccines in Q1 2021.


----------



## doctrine

UK just approved Pfizer's vaccine for emergency use. US will be next week.

There are going to be a lot of awkward moments in Canada as the US starts vaccinating 20-30 million Americans a month. Maybe 80-100 million Americans before Canada even possesses enough doses for 3 million. Embarrassing.


----------



## cainvest

doctrine said:


> UK just approved Pfizer's vaccine for emergency use. US will be next week.
> 
> There are going to be a lot of awkward moments in Canada as the US starts vaccinating 20-30 million Americans a month. Maybe 80-100 million Americans before Canada even possesses enough doses for 3 million. Embarrassing.


This might turn out to be good news ... we'll see any short term side effects before mass use in Canada.


----------



## sags

I am sure a lot of political pressure came to bear on the pharma companies by the US and others.

Send us the vaccines first if you want to continue to have unfettered access to our markets....kind of pressure.

Trump made it clear in his tweets and pronouncements that he expected the drug companies to do what he wanted...or else, and the companies know how vindictive he is.

Canada has orders in for all the vaccines. They put the orders in before the UK and other countries.

We will receive them asap and that is the best we can do. I don't expect widespread vaccine shots until late 2021, but I hope I am wrong.

It is all politics and we simply don't have the "market access" clout of other countries.....regardless of who the PM is.

I doubt calling up the CEOs and screaming at them would have much impact on the outcome.


----------



## Beaver101

Couple who tested positive for Covid are arrested after boarding flight

I can't imagine being next in line with these 2 at the local supermarket, let alone fly.


----------



## james4beach

The US has now hit the point where the daily deaths match the number of casualties on 9/11, discussed here. Very close to exceeding it anyway.

From now on, it's 9/11 every day.

Which is incredible when you think about how seriously Americans took 9/11, and yet, don't take this one seriously at all.


----------



## james4beach

My family members (in Europe) who have covid are doing better. I got an update from the couple ... the husband has been released from hospital, and the wife is also feeling better as her condition improves.

I got a text tonight from her. She writes, direct quote: "*This is an awful disease . . . I'm an idiot. I wasn't careful enough to protect myself*"

Those are 30-somethings. We all need to protect ourselves, no matter what age we are. It can hit everyone really hard and can land you in the hospital.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> The US has now hit the point where the daily deaths match the number of casualties on 9/11, discussed here. Very close to exceeding it anyway.
> 
> From now on, it's 9/11 every day.
> 
> Which is incredible when you think about how seriously Americans took 9/11, and yet, don't take this one seriously at all.


Not surprising at all, if you understand psychology.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Covid 19 has shouted quite loudly how much people truly care about other people, that they have never met. Actions certainly speak louder then words. People like to give lip service to their caring and humanity but at the end of the day they only care about themselves, as confirmed by actions during this pandemic.

This does not surprise me. What surprises me is how many people still believe that they are different. Like giving 1% of their income to charity makes them special, or volunteering at the soup kitchen 1 day per year, or wearing a mask when they go to Cdn. Tire but removing it when they go see their friends, knowing this action feeds the pandemic that might seriously harm others.

I remember the long struggle I had with getting people to embrace the benefits of masks (still ongoing). I remember one of the common arguments, earlier in the pandemic, was simply that masks ONLY protect you if the sick person was wearing it. I fought an up hill battle to prove that this argument was wrong, not only because it was, but because I knew that most people would never wear a mask if all it did was protect others. People are inherently selfish. Even the few that do help others do it only to make themselves feel better about doing it. If that is not there, they usually are not there.

As I have mentioned before. No where in the world have I observed anyone point out that a vaccine dose would do so much more good in the arm of a middle aged foreigner then in the arm of their 20 year old compatriot. And we wonder why we have so many wars.


----------



## sags

james4beach said:


> The US has now hit the point where the daily deaths match the number of casualties on 9/11, discussed here. Very close to exceeding it anyway.
> 
> From now on, it's 9/11 every day.
> 
> Which is incredible when you think about how seriously Americans took 9/11, and yet, don't take this one seriously at all.


The numbers are only getting started. It is exponential math now.

More Americans have died from COVID than during WW2. The COVID took over from heart disease as the leading cause of death in the US.

Overrun hospitals, field hospitals, exhausted doctors and nurses, .......everywhere, so there is no help coming from other areas.

In Canada, we are heading in the same direction. Field hospitals in Alberta, lock downs..........our local hospital had outbreaks on several floors.

In the US........the 911 system is on the verge of collapse.

I said from the start that there needed to be a 28 day total lock down to defeat the COVID, but instead they opened everything up and welcomed the COVID in.

They wanted to "save" businesses and the economy. That plan didn't work out well.

Stupid is as stupid does.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> More Americans have died from COVID than during WW2.


Care to back this claim up?


----------



## sags

As of November 30, national forecasts predict that 9,500 to 19,500 new #COVID19 deaths will be reported during the week ending December 26. These forecasts predict *303,000 to 329,000 total COVID-19 deaths in the United States by December 26*. More: https://bit.ly/3cKQIl4.

There were *291,551 Americans killed during WW2*






United States military casualties of war - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## sags

COVID deaths could pass the number of US deaths in all wars.........661,441

The daily COVID deaths are already surpassing the total killed in some wars and dwarfs the losses in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea wars


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> There were *291,551 Americans killed during WW2*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United States military casualties of war - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


Total US deaths from the WW2 conflict is 405,399 based on your link above plus 30,314 missing.
Your number is from direct combat only, other types of deaths occur during war.


----------



## sags

OptsyEagle said:


> Covid 19 has shouted quite loudly how much people truly care about other people, that they have never met. Actions certainly speak louder then words. People like to give lip service to their caring and humanity but at the end of the day they only care about themselves, as confirmed by actions during this pandemic.
> 
> This does not surprise me. What surprises me is how many people still believe that they are different. Like giving 1% of their income to charity makes them special, or volunteering at the soup kitchen 1 day per year, or wearing a mask when they go to Cdn. Tire but removing it when they go see their friends, knowing this action feeds the pandemic that might seriously harm others.
> 
> I remember the long struggle I had with getting people to embrace the benefits of masks (still ongoing). I remember one of the common arguments, earlier in the pandemic, was simply that masks ONLY protect you if the sick person was wearing it. I fought an up hill battle to prove that this argument was wrong, not only because it was, but because I knew that most people would never wear a mask if all it did was protect others. People are inherently selfish. Even the few that do help others do it only to make themselves feel better about doing it. If that is not there, they usually are not there.
> 
> As I have mentioned before. No where in the world have I observed anyone point out that a vaccine dose would do so much more good in the arm of a middle aged foreigner then in the arm of their 20 year old compatriot. And we wonder why we have so many wars.


The problem is that many people either don't watch the "real" news on CNN or other major news outlets, or they watch Fox News, OAN or an "opinion" source that either barely mentions the COVID spread, play it down or openly mock it as 'fake" news.

Those people never see the live interviews with actual on the ground reporters talking to doctors, nurses, paramedics and people working in the hospitals.

They don't hear the doctors saying they are burned out and their colleagues are quitting for fear of their own lives. They don't hear from nurses who hold patients hands as they draw their last breath of life. They don't hear from doctors saying their hospitals are overflowing and they have to turn people away knowing they may die at home.

They don't hear any of that news from real reporters who are on the scene, so they live in a "bubble of ignorance" and think it isn't a big deal.


----------



## sags

cainvest said:


> Total US deaths from the WW2 conflict is 405,399 based on your link above plus 30,314 missing.
> Your number is from direct combat only, other types of deaths occur during war.


Other deaths occur during COVID as well. People do die from natural causes or accidents in war and during a COVID pandemic.

The deaths attributable to COVID are likely much higher than reported. Many people who died from complications such as strokes, heart attacks, or respiratory failure were never tested for COVID after death. Even today, they may be people dying from COVID at home who are never counted as COVID deaths.


----------



## sags

If you watch only Fox News in prime hours, you would barely know there is a pandemic raging on. 

They never talk to the doctors in hospitals or have reporters on the ground.

According to them, it is a "leftist" conspiracy to take away American's freedom and rights.

The prime time hosts on Fox News are either completely batshit crazy or pandering to the mass of stupid people to make money from them.

Imagine a Governor closing down a pub just because the hospitals are overflowing, the 911 emergency system is collapsing, and people are dying.

The nerve of such people. They must be traitors to the cause of liberty.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Other deaths occur during COVID as well. People do die from natural causes or accidents in war and during a COVID pandemic.
> 
> The deaths attributable to COVID are likely much higher than reported. Many people who died from complications such as strokes, heart attacks, or respiratory failure were never tested for COVID after death. Even today, they may be people dying from COVID at home who are never counted as COVID deaths.


Yes other deaths occur but those numbers we attributed to WW2.

There is also claims that many deaths were reported as covid deaths but were not ... could go either way I guess.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The numbers are only getting started. It is exponential math now.
> 
> More Americans have died from COVID than during WW2. The COVID took over from heart disease as the leading cause of death in the US.
> 
> Overrun hospitals, field hospitals, exhausted doctors and nurses, .......everywhere, so there is no help coming from other areas.
> 
> In Canada, we are heading in the same direction. Field hospitals in Alberta, lock downs..........our local hospital had outbreaks on several floors.
> 
> In the US........the 911 system is on the verge of collapse.
> 
> I said from the start that there needed to be a 28 day total lock down to defeat the COVID, but instead they opened everything up and welcomed the COVID in.
> 
> They wanted to "save" businesses and the economy. That plan didn't work out well.
> 
> Stupid is as stupid does.


It was always exponential math, that's why pandemics are a problem.

They're preparing field hospitals, again, because it's the right thing to do.

Do you want them to jump right to the NYC "solution" of renting freezer trucks for the bodies?

At least you finally agree that they didn't do the right lockdown back at the beginning.


----------



## Money172375

Toronto and the neighbouring area Peel have been in “lockdown” for approx 2 weeks. It hasn’t done anything to lower numbers. Basically flat, although they hit new records every few days. To me, there’s still too much open during what they call the “lockdown”


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> Toronto and the neighbouring area Peel have been in “lockdown” for approx 2 weeks. It hasn’t done anything to lower numbers. Basically flat, although they hit new records every few days. To me, there’s still too much open during what they call the “lockdown”


On the other hand strict measures appear to be helping in Manitoba. But in Toronto/Peel, people are mobile and are probably zipping around everywhere within the GTA and still spreading it around.

People are now also flying around with holidays approaching. On a walk yesterday, I talked with a young couple (in their 20s) who said they are about to fly to Quebec to visit their elderly parents for Christmas.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> On the other hand strict measures appear to be helping in Manitoba.


The restrictions in MB have helped but I'm seeing much more non-compliance than eariler this year, I guess people are getting tired of the isolation. Some here are even going to try and take the government to court shortly.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> The restrictions in MB have helped but I'm seeing much more non-compliance than eariler this year, I guess people are getting tired of the isolation. Some here are even going to try and take the government to court shortly.


How can they be tired of isolation? There's only been one month of winter so far and the restrictions have been in place for just a few weeks, I thought?


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> How can they be tired of isolation? There's only been one month of winter so far and the restrictions have been in place for just a few weeks, I thought?


I think just tired overall with covid even though lockdowns have only been 3 weeks or so in Winnipeg. Even though some the summer was fairly good here many events were cancelled. That's the best reason I can think of anyways and probably worse now that Christmas will almost certainly be isolated.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> I think just tired overall with covid even though lockdowns have only been 3 weeks or so in Winnipeg. Even though some the summer was fairly good here many events were cancelled. That's the best reason I can think of anyways and probably worse now that Christmas will almost certainly be isolated.


I am bracing for a huge surge in infections close to Christmas. I just think many people are going to visit and mingle with friends & family anyway. This will be followed by a surge in cases and deaths.

Earlier I was thinking I may see a friend or two in December but after two of my relatives ended up very sick (with the man younger than me requiring hospital care, plus pneumonia) I've decided ... no. I will not be seeing ANYONE indoors for the rest of December.

This is actually a decision I made yesterday. I'm not doing any more indoor social gatherings, period. Not even family or very close friends. I don't know about all of you but I don't want to get sick right around Christmas. It's a *rough* disease. Even if you're in your 20s, or 30s, or 40s, and even if you're healthy, you really don't want to catch this.

It's easy enough to grab coffee with someone and talk outdoors, or go on a walk, etc. Plus phone calls, video chats. Lots of social options around, but I refuse to meet anyone indoors - period.


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> I am bracing for a huge surge in infections close to Christmas. I just think many people are going to visit and mingle with friends & family anyway. This will be followed by a surge in cases and deaths.
> 
> Earlier I was thinking I may see a friend or two in December but after two of my relatives ended up very sick (with the man younger than me requiring hospital care, plus pneumonia) I've decided ... no. I will not be seeing ANYONE indoors for the rest of December.
> 
> This is actually a decision I made yesterday. I'm not doing any more indoor social gatherings, period. Not even family or very close friends. I don't know about all of you but I don't want to get sick right around Christmas. It's a *rough* disease. Even if you're in your 20s, or 30s, or 40s, and even if you're healthy, you really don't want to catch this.
> 
> It's easy enough to grab coffee with someone and talk outdoors, or go on a walk, etc. Plus phone calls, video chats. Lots of social options around, but I refuse to meet anyone indoors - period.


My friend picked up covid. He had some back and chest pain. No sense of taste. Minor symptoms......but he said it was terrible. Absolute isolation for 2 weeks is rough too!


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> My friend picked up covid. He had some back and chest pain. No sense of taste. Minor symptoms......but he said it was terrible. Absolute isolation for 2 weeks is rough too!


He has to self monitor and really stay on top of it, because some people start off just fine and then things get more serious. It's a very serious disease. My biggest concern if I catch COVID won't be the two week isolation... it would be fear of ending up in hospital.


----------



## sags

People are getting worn down, and the prospects of losing their job or already being laid off at this time of year........with vaccines maybe a year away, is the time for government to step up and give people something to raise people's spirits to get them closer to the end zone.

I think they should issue *a tax free $5000 benefit to everyone over the age of 18*. The benefit should not be clawed back for ANY reason.......be it income, collecting disability or unemployment benefits or any benefit.

Just give the people the money. We are all in this mess together and everyone needs a break. If people want they can donate to someone who needs it.

I reckon it would cost $150 billion. It is a big sum but wouldn't change much in the big scheme of things.

The US is looking at an additional $2-$3 Trillion package on top of an existing $27 Trillion debt. That is 30 times the $1 Trillion debt for Canada with only 10 times the population. They are also not addressing huge financial issues like the bankruptcy of Social Security and Medicare.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> I think they should issue *a tax free $5000 benefit to everyone over the age of 18*. The benefit should not be clawed back for ANY reason.......be it income, collecting disability or unemployment benefits or any benefit.
> 
> Just give the people the money. We are all in this mess together and everyone needs a break. If people want they can donate to someone who needs it.


I agree that everyone should just get $5000 (no categories, no qualification criteria), but it should be taxable


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I agree that everyone should just get $5000 (no categories, no qualification criteria), but it should be taxable


I agree, by making it taxable, it will significantly reduce the actual cost, since many people will be paying a portion back in taxes.

It's also much simpler to administer, faster, and less costly.

But it also means some rich people will get it, and the gov can't crow about how they're helping identity group X, for days on end.


----------



## sags

It could be taxable but not from source as a withholding tax.

Low income folks would capture all or most of the benefit immediately and higher income folks would have to pay taxes on it the following year.

If the government allowed a one time opportunity to put the $5000 COVID benefit as an "extra" $5,000 contribution to a TFSA, higher income folks could recapture the taxes they paid over time. All it would require is raising the TFSA contribution limit for 1 year only.

It would be a "fair and equitable" way to get money directly into people's hands and help stabilize the economy and relieve the immediate financial stress.

Then we cross our fingers and hope the vaccines come in time and work. If not.......we go to plan B, C, or D.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> ...
> 
> Then we cross our fingers and hope the vaccines come in time and work. If not......*.we go to plan B, C, or D.*


 ... what's plan B, C or D? Haven't heard of it from the medical experts.


----------



## sags

Those plans are still in progress, but may involve moving to Antarctica........


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> It's easy enough to grab coffee with someone and talk outdoors, or go on a walk, etc. Plus phone calls, video chats. Lots of social options around, but I refuse to meet anyone indoors - period.


Yup, meeting indoors (for non-household people) is a total no-no here and technically no social gatherings permitted outdoors either. On the plus side, local churches lost their court case to assemble hundreds of cars into their parking lots yesterday ... some have been fined over $30,000 in the past weeks.


----------



## cainvest

On the plus side (I think???) they did find the cause for the problems in 2020 ...


----------



## OptsyEagle

So Ontario posts another record day for infections BUT the Re drops below 1 to 0.98. Is Re a number that has an actual formula to it or is it some kind of estimate. Seems kind of peculiar that on a day where infections are hitting record highs one gets a reading that says the numbers will get better soon. Not saying they won't, I am just curious how they derive at that.

COVID-19 case data: All Ontario (Note: the data on this link will update and change everyday)


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> So Ontario posts another record day for infections BUT the Re drops below 1 to 0.98. Is Re a number that has an actual formula to it or is it some kind of estimate. Seems kind of peculiar that on a day where infections are hitting record highs one gets a reading that says the numbers will get better soon. Not saying they won't, I am just curious how they derive at that.
> 
> COVID-19 case data: All Ontario (Note: the data on this link will update and change everyday)


It's complicated. You can take courses on this, and if your'e really interested, I recommend them. I'm a big fan of EDX, but there are others through various opencourseware programs.

It is a real number, but like all statistics it depends on the circumstances and assumptions.

I think the good news is though it's record highs, the number of daily new cases isn't increasing dramatically.

Like 
Case A: 1,2,4,8, 16, 32 is bad
But 
Case B: 1,2,4,6,7,8 is much better

If you average it out and get something like
Case C: 1,2,4,8,12,10, thats just wonderful, even though the numbers are worse than B, maybe it's a better trend.


----------



## sags

Hospitalizations are rising quickly, which is where the rubber meets the road.


----------



## bgc_fan

Here's some good news: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-announcement-otoole-vaccine-motion-1.5830938


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> Here's some good news: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-announcement-otoole-vaccine-motion-1.5830938


Yup there we go. Health Canada says they could approve Pfizer's vaccine as soon as *this week*.

The government has already started setting up the cold storage equipment, as reported last week. And vaccine doses will start to arrive by the end of this month.

And remember, the Trudeau government has pre-ordered many other vaccines as well. We will not just be getting the Pfizer one; other vaccines will be coming too. Canada has ordered the most doses of total vaccines per capita, of any country on earth.

Long term care homes get the first vaccines. Then perhaps everyone over age 80.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Just get the people who are at most risk, out of this pandemic. LTC, Hospital workers, pre-existing conditions and maybe down to age 60 and older. After that, I would think that any vaccines that come BEFORE the end of March may not see the rush of demand that the government might hope for.

If we remove the high risk groups mentioned above, the pandemic is over. Infections will go on but infections don't create a pandemic. Deaths and disability create a pandemic. That group above was the pandemic. Of course, it was of no fault of their own. Just mother nature being mean again.

Since no one can be sure they don't have a pre-existing condition, the demand for vaccination will be high but not high enough to want to be at the front of the line, in my opinion. But of course, that is just my opinion.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> Just get the people who are at most risk, out of this pandemic. LTC, Hospital workers, pre-existing conditions and maybe down to age 60 and older. After that, I would think that any vaccines that come BEFORE the end of March may not see the rush of demand that the government might hope for.
> 
> If we remove the high risk groups mentioned above, the pandemic is over. Infections will go on but infections don't create a pandemic. Deaths and disability create a pandemic. That group above was the pandemic. Of course, it was of no fault of their own. Just mother nature being mean again.
> 
> Since no one can be sure they don't have a pre-existing condition, the demand for vaccination will be high but not high enough to want to be at the front of the line, in my opinion. But of course, that is just my opinion.


Yes I do wonder how things will change after we vaccinate the long term care homes and healthcare workers.

It all comes down to the burden on the hospitals. If vaccinating the most at-risk elderly is enough to reduce the load on the hospitals, bringing the hospital activity levels near normal, then we're OK. But I'm not sure it's going to be that easy.

Taking a look at BC data, there are a total of 1,816 people in hospital. About 400 of these people are age 80 and up. A problem I see here is that a whopping 78% of people in hospital are under age 80. That tells me that just "solving" the 80+ problem does not clear out the hospitals.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> Just get the people who are at most risk, out of this pandemic. LTC, Hospital workers, pre-existing conditions and maybe down to age 60 and older. After that, I would think that any vaccines that come BEFORE the end of March may not see the rush of demand that the government might hope for.
> 
> If we remove the high risk groups mentioned above, the pandemic is over. Infections will go on but infections don't create a pandemic. Deaths and disability create a pandemic. That group above was the pandemic. Of course, it was of no fault of their own. Just mother nature being mean again.
> 
> Since no one can be sure they don't have a pre-existing condition, the demand for vaccination will be high but not high enough to want to be at the front of the line, in my opinion. But of course, that is just my opinion.


I don't think we can relax. Lots of younger people are experiencing significant, long-lasting symptoms (long haulers).


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> Yes I do wonder how things will change after we vaccinate the long term care homes and healthcare workers.
> 
> It all comes down to the burden on the hospitals. If vaccinating the most at-risk elderly is enough to reduce the load on the hospitals, bringing the hospital activity levels near normal, then we're OK. But I'm not sure it's going to be that easy.
> 
> Taking a look at BC data, there are a total of 1,816 people in hospital. About 400 of these people are age 80 and up. A problem I see here is that a whopping 78% of people in hospital are under age 80. That tells me that just "solving" the 80+ problem does not clear out the hospitals.


If we can protect the LTC homes, healthcare workers, pre-existed conditions and everyone older then 60, it is over.

It's kind of like a war. Win an important battle, capture a couple of key positions and it is over. Doesn't really matter that the enemy still has a few, fairly useless troops, in the field and has not yet officially surrendered. You know the war is over. Sure some small number of people can still get hurt, but the war is over.

Now I am 56, so I suspect I will retain my mask for entering stores, will not go to the movies even if they open up and any social gatherings will be outside and from 6 feet away, until my vaccination is completed. Doing that or not doing that, however, will not change the fact that infection rates will drop dramatically and hospitalizations will drop to almost insignificant levels, very quickly.

The war is over. If the virus had any brains it would raise a white flag. lol


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> Now I am 56, so I suspect I will retain my mask for entering stores, will not go to the movies even if they open up and any social gatherings will be outside and from 6 feet away, until my vaccination is completed. Doing that or not doing that, however, will not change the fact that infection rates will drop dramatically and hospitalizations will drop to almost insignificant levels, very quickly.


Why will infection rates drop dramatically? The 70 and 80 year olds aren't the ones infecting everyone.

It's the people in their 20s, 30s, 40s who are spreading the infection around. These people are socializing right now, flying right now, and they are only going to socialize more as everyone relaxes.

I don't see why the infection rates would drop. You're calling the 'end of the war' too early.

My 35 year old relative is still in hospital with COVID and pneumonia. This disease is dangerous and remains very dangerous, and the hospitals will likely remain full of people from age 30-60, basically, working age people in close contact with lots of other people.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> I don't think we can relax. Lots of younger people are experiencing significant, long-lasting symptoms (long haulers).


In my opinion, once we remove the most likely at risk groups, the exceptions that you are alluding to, will certainly not constitute a pandemic. It will be time to open up the economy fully.

A person, who has not been vaccinated, should of course maintain caution. If they do not, that is on them.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Taking a look at BC data, there are a total of 1,816 people in hospital. About 400 of these people are age 80 and up. A problem I see here is that a whopping 78% of people in hospital are under age 80. That tells me that just "solving" the 80+ problem does not clear out the hospitals.


Not sure why you're stating the 80+ age, 50+ is where the stats really climb.
The vast majority are in the 50+ range for hospitals, 83% for Canada.
ICU percentage is pretty much the same as 82% are 50+
Deaths really climb over 70+ at 88%.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> Why will infection rates drop dramatically? The 70 and 80 year olds aren't the ones infecting everyone.
> 
> It's the people in their 20s, 30s, 40s who are spreading the infection around. These people are socializing right now and they are only going to socialize more as everyone gets more optimistic about vaccines.
> 
> I don't see why the infection rates would drop. You're calling the 'end of the war' too early.
> 
> My 35 year old relative is still in hospital with COVID and pneumonia.


This is a controversial topic but it revolves around my point that this pandemic did not only direct its violence at a specific, more older population, but in my opinion, was mostly caused by that same group. Again, of no fault of their own. Take two people, one age 30 and the other age 60, infect them with the same size dose and the one who is age 60 will soon offer a much higher dose of infection to others and will be doing that for many, many more days, then the younger one will. Take the older, more infectious out of the equation and the numbers should drop.

Now if precautions, like mask wearing are dropped, perhaps infection rates may not drop so dramatically but I believe they will still drop. Certainly if hospitalizations drop to almost zero, who cares about infections. I mean no one wants to get sick but we are not going to shut down an economy because someone feels like crap for a while. As for long haulers, I have not seen any numbers to say they are any more then a rounding error compared to the much larger number of people who were infected.


----------



## andrewf

You can't order people to behave normally. The economy is going to continue to be depressed regardless of government restrictions. And the early vaccines will not apparently reduce infectiousness and are not perfectly effective, so you are still rolling the die when it comes to risking infection.

The pandemic is over when enough people are immune to infection.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> Yup there we go. Health Canada says they could approve Pfizer's vaccine as soon as *this week*.
> 
> The government has already started setting up the cold storage equipment, as reported last week. And vaccine doses will start to arrive *by the end of this month.*
> 
> And remember, the Trudeau government has pre-ordered many other vaccines as well. We will not just be getting the Pfizer one; other vaccines will be coming too. Canada has ordered the most doses of total vaccines per capita, of any country on earth.
> 
> Long term care homes get the first vaccines. Then perhaps everyone over age 80.


 ... sounds like Health Canada has approved the Pfizer's vaccine simultaneously with the* announcement of a delivery of 249K *doses by [end of this month.] * Those guys must be working around the clock ... just hope us taxpayers ain't billed 3 x of over-hours pay.

* Correction from [this week.]


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> This is a controversial topic but it revolves around my point that this pandemic did not only direct its violence at a specific, more elderly population, but in my opinion, was mostly caused by that same group. Again, of no fault of their own. Take two people, one age 30 and the other age 60, infect them with the same size dose and the one who is age 60 will offer a much higher dose of infection to others and will be doing it for many, many more days. Take them out of the equation and the numbers should drop.


I think you are confusing some causes and effects. If you really looking at the idea of dropping infection numbers, the priority after the frontline workers would be the 20-30 year old people who are in gathering in large numbers and possibly spreading the virus. If you are looking at the idea of dropping the number of deaths, then the priority would be the older population. In all likelihood, it isn't the older people in long-term care facilities that are going out to spread the virus, it's the younger population who aren't wearing facemasks and holding gatherings. Based on your previous posts, you don't believe that young people don't have high enough viral load to spread the virus, but I'd say that they are the large reservoir of the virus and spreading it to the older population. When Young People Get COVID-19, Infections Soon Rise Among Older Adults.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> In all likelihood, it isn't the older people in long-term care facilities that are going out to spread the virus, it's the younger population who aren't wearing facemasks and holding gatherings.


Also to be somewhat fair to the 20-29 crowd ... many deal with a high volume of the public on a regular basis like supermarkets, restaurants, retail stores, etc.


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## Beaver101

19 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported at Thorncliffe Park Public School: TDSB

Asymptomatic students (aka silent carriers) as noted in the above newslink are by far deadlier, IMO.

Can't figure out why health officials are not focusing on them and demand schools move completely to online learning for each applicable semesters.

Their strategy with closing one school at the last moment, and allowing parents the choice of online or in-class learning (or a confusing mix) seems like using a Swiss-cheese model in tackling the infection problem in the GTA. 

Mr. Leccee (sic), are you awake and do you need a magnifying glass?


----------



## Money172375

How is Africa seemingly doing so much better than the rest of the world. the cases/capita seem very low, even in countries with large populations?

unreliable data?
genetics?
less human mobility?


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Also to be somewhat fair to the 20-29 crowd ... many deal with a high volume of the public on a regular basis like supermarkets, restaurants, retail stores, etc.


That is true. And while they were called essential workers, would you agree that they should be the next in line after the frontline (health care workers)? People working those jobs were deemed essential and have exposure to many people. I would say they are at a higher risk than those who are in the 50s and working from home, and should be prioritized accordingly. However, I'm going to bet that doesn't happen.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Response to post #3,465: Unreliable data and less attention. Plus better air quality there in the less developed areas.


----------



## bgc_fan

Money172375 said:


> How is Africa seemingly doing so much better than the rest of the world. the cases/capita seem very low, even in countries with large populations?
> 
> unreliable data?
> genetics?
> less human mobility?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 20920


Because they have experience with dealing with things like Ebola and other infectious outbreaks. They locked down pretty hard in certain countries, plus a younger demographic.









Coronavirus in Africa: Five reasons why Covid-19 has been less deadly than elsewhere


The continent of a billion people has had fewer deaths than the UK despite the generally fragile health systems.



www.bbc.com





Here's Trevor Noah's light-hearted take on it:


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> I think you are confusing some causes and effects. If you really looking at the idea of dropping infection numbers, the priority after the frontline workers would be the 20-30 year old people who are in gathering in large numbers and possibly spreading the virus. If you are looking at the idea of dropping the number of deaths, then the priority would be the older population. In all likelihood, it isn't the older people in long-term care facilities that are going out to spread the virus, it's the younger population who aren't wearing facemasks and holding gatherings. Based on your previous posts, you don't believe that young people don't have high enough viral load to spread the virus, but I'd say that they are the large reservoir of the virus and spreading it to the older population. When Young People Get COVID-19, Infections Soon Rise Among Older Adults.


Of course I am worried about deaths. We are being infected with benign viruses all the time. I see no reason to start worrying about that now. I wish many could move away from infections when thinking about this pandemic. It is the deaths that matter, not the infection.

As for older people not infecting each other. I suspect a lot of the LTC infections came from residents inside the homes. Sure, the 1st one did not, but after that, unless these people were put in solitary confinement and forced to wear a mask outside their rooms, I see no reason why they would not be infecting each other. They would have been carrying a very dangerous viral load and carrying it for a lot longer then most other people younger.

The point you are making, as did J4C, is who is spreading the most infections. Well I am not as worried about the 20 and 30 year olds, as other seem to be, because for the most part, I believe they were spreading mostly benign infections, mostly amongst themselves. I am worried about the 40 to 59 year olds. They are quite dangerous and also vulnerable to the virus, to a fair degree.


----------



## james4beach

Australia is also doing fantastically well. I am more interested in comparing to Australia because they are a country very much like us, virtually the same culture as Canada and same government infrastructure, same medical capabilities, etc.

And yet they have just about no COVID!

Australia heavily restricts travel between states. Here in Canada we have people flying every day to visit family (or just for fun) between say AB and ON, but that wouldn't happen in Australia. Domestic travel is restricted.

In addition, Australia has *very strict* entry requirements. I recently asked a friend if people are leaving the country for Christmas and he said: they can, but then they have to quarantine for 14 days on re-entry. And this isn't an "on your honour" quarantine. They have to stay at an approved facility and pay the cost themselves. Miraculously, this makes many people decide NOT to fly around, leave and re-enter Australia.

These are the kinds of things we should have done in Canada. Shut down inter provincial travel and add very strict quarantine on entry. Instead we have people zipping back and forth to the USA and Europe and just trusting them to self-isolate. It's not enough.

I want to see entry to Canada heavily restricted, especially from the US and Europe. The numbers south of the border are terrible already and about to go ballistic, and yet we still have snowbirds zipping back & forth. There are no checks on these people, we've got to lock this down hard and stop people from travelling to/from US.


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## OptsyEagle

duplicate


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> That is true. And while they were called essential workers, would you agree that they should be the next in line after the frontline (health care workers)? People working those jobs were deemed essential and have exposure to many people. I would say they are at a higher risk than those who are in the 50s and working from home, and should be prioritized accordingly. However, I'm going to bet that doesn't happen.


Tough call on the order, I'd really need to dig into the numbers for a good opinion. For a quick response I'd say health care and first responders, old folks homes and those in hospitals. After that likely, higher-risk (50+/known health issues) front line workers (bus drivers, truck drivers, supermarket workers, etc) then I'm not sure ... Really depends on the target, as in, are their trying initially to reduce hospital loading or reduce overall potential spread. 

BTW, since no vaccine is approved yet I haven't looked but can any of the vaccines help those already infected in hospital?


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> You can't order people to behave normally. The economy is going to continue to be depressed regardless of government restrictions. And the early vaccines will not apparently reduce infectiousness and are not perfectly effective, so you are still rolling the die when it comes to risking infection.
> 
> The pandemic is over when enough people are immune to infection.


To agree with what you said, one must assume infectiousness is the same for everyone under every circumstance. Science has proven that not to be the case.

We know that 5 vaccinated people, from the Pfizer study, contracted Covid-19. We then assume, if they have covid-19, that they would be able to infect others. Since most people also assume that all infections are the same, this gets extrapolated to mean that a vaccinated person can infect another person with a dose of covid-19 that can kill them.

Well, we don't have the evidence to say that last paragraph is wrong but think about it a little more. We know the 5 did not get very sick. The less sick you get, the lower the viral load you peaked at. The lower the viral load peak, the shorter the time it will take you to get rid of it and therefore the shorter the time you will be infectious.

In my opinion, the most likely answer to this observation by Pfizer, is that the 5 vaccinated individuals who tested positive, most likely obtained what otherwise would have been a deadly dose for them (so they exposed themselves to a whopper of a dose), within perhaps 48 hours of Pfizer giving them a C-19 test. Had Pfizer tested everyone, every hour, they would have found many more infections. But they all ended benign. So who cares. I even argue that if they did infect someone else the dose the other person received would be so small, it also would be benign. This is how vaccines get rid of viruses.

Again. Unfortunately no proof. Just common sense.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Of course I am worried about deaths. We are being infected with benign viruses all the time. I see no reason to start worrying about that now. I wish many could move away from infections when thinking about this pandemic. It is the deaths that matter, not the infection.
> 
> As for older people not infecting each other. I suspect a lot of the LTC infections came from residents inside the homes. Sure, the 1st one did not, but after that, unless these people were put in solitary confinement and forced to wear a mask outside their rooms, I see no reason why they would not be infecting each other. They would have been carrying a very dangerous viral load and carrying it for a lot longer then most other people younger.
> 
> The point you are making, as did J4C, is who is spreading the most infections. Well I am not as worried about the 20 and 30 year olds, as other seem to be, because for the most part, I believe they were spreading mostly benign infections, mostly amongst themselves. I am worried about the 40 to 59 year olds. They are quite dangerous and also vulnerable to the virus, to a fair degree.


I think you responded twice, your second one was a little incomplete.

I didn't state that the older people weren't infecting each other. My point is that they are in a controlled environment so community spread is unlikely if it is contained, with only the health care workers being the only way that the virus can be brought in or out of the environment. As long as they take precautions, infection spread can be limited.

You are disregarding the 20 to 30 year olds because you believe that they are spreading benign infections. There's no such thing. They are spreading the same virus as the virus that kills the 80 year old and the more that the virus spreads in the community, the higher the likelihood that the vulnerable population will be hit. You only have to think about the 7 degrees of Kevin Bacon. The more people carrying the virus, the more chance that someone within 7 degrees of relationship of a vulnerable population will catch it and have it pass through the relationships to hit.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Tough call on the order, I'd really need to dig into the numbers for a good opinion. For a quick response I'd say health care and first responders, old folks homes and those in hospitals. After that likely, higher-risk (50+/known health issues) front line workers (bus drivers, truck drivers, supermarket workers, etc) then I'm not sure ... Really depends on the target, as in, are their trying initially to reduce hospital loading or reduce overall potential spread.
> 
> BTW, since no vaccine is approved yet I haven't looked but can any of the vaccines help those already infected in hospital?


It's always a tough judgement call on priorities when it comes to this sort of thing. You only have to look at New Mexico where they are facing the possibility of rationing health care due to the demand: 'A physician's nightmare': New Mexico hospitals likely to get OK to ration care. New Mexico Gov. Lujan Grisham will likely implement a measure this week that would allow hospitals to move to "crisis standards," and ration care based on patients' chances of survival, The Washington Post reports.

I think these particular vaccines are preventative, rather than therapeutic, so I doubt that they would help.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> It's always a tough judgement call on priorities when it comes to this sort of thing.


There is also logistic issues, some groups may be eaiser to get to than others especially if the vaccine requires special storage requirements. As soon as it's approved I'm sure we'll get more details.



bgc_fan said:


> I think these particular vaccines are preventative, rather than therapeutic, so I doubt that they would help.


Yes, they are promoted that way and I haven't heard otherwise. There was also a question here in MB whether or not previous cases, those recovered from covid, would be able to get the vaccine. As it stands today, nobody in MB has been a repeat case but it's unknown how long that will go on for.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Yes, they are promoted that way and I haven't heard otherwise. There was also a question here in MB whether or not previous cases, those recovered from covid, would be able to get the vaccine. As it stands today, nobody in MB has been a repeat case but it's unknown how long that will go on for.


I suspect those who recovered are probably at the back of the pack, just due to supplies and assumption that they should have some immunity. I imagine when supplies are firmed and the priorities are done, vaccines will be made available. Again, just priorities.


----------



## agent99

Money172375 said:


> How is Africa seemingly doing so much better than the rest of the world. the cases/capita seem very low, even in countries with large populations?
> 
> unreliable data?
> genetics?
> less human mobility?


A good part of it, might be that they spend a large part of their time outdoors. Air borne virus transmission eliminated.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> To agree with what you said, one must assume infectiousness is the same for everyone under every circumstance. Science has proven that not to be the case.
> 
> We know that 5 vaccinated people, from the Pfizer study, contracted Covid-19. We then assume, if they have covid-19, that they would be able to infect others. Since most people also assume that all infections are the same, this gets extrapolated to mean that a vaccinated person can infect another person with a dose of covid-19 that can kill them.
> 
> Well, we don't have the evidence to say that last paragraph is wrong but think about it a little more. We know the 5 did not get very sick. The less sick you get, the lower the viral load you peaked at. The lower the viral load peak, the shorter the time it will take you to get rid of it and therefore the shorter the time you will be infectious.
> 
> In my opinion, the most likely answer to this observation by Pfizer, is that the 5 vaccinated individuals who tested positive, most likely obtained what otherwise would have been a deadly dose for them (so they exposed themselves to a whopper of a dose), within perhaps 48 hours of Pfizer giving them a C-19 test. Had Pfizer tested everyone, every hour, they would have found many more infections. But they all ended benign. So who cares. I even argue that if they did infect someone else the dose the other person received would be so small, it also would be benign. This is how vaccines get rid of viruses.
> 
> Again. Unfortunately no proof. Just common sense.


You're not being consistent. If everyone was vaccinated, perhaps we could be blasee about loosening distancing. You're saying as soon as the most at-risk group is vaccinated (over 60s) we should immediately go back to normal. I don't think that makes sense. People under 60 still have good reason not to get infected, particularly when they are not vaccinated! Not everyone can receive the initial vaccine (immune compromised people and children).

Shrugging about a high level of infection is not a great idea...


----------



## sags

I heard someone say on tv today they are considering people who live in apartment buildings as high risk.

I think it would be easier to say who isn't high risk or essential, so we can plan to get the vaccine in 2022.

In any event, I will be taking any and all of the vaccines. I am loading up to build immunity from any future bugs too.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> You're not being consistent. If everyone was vaccinated, perhaps we could be blasee about loosening distancing. You're saying as soon as the most at-risk group is vaccinated (over 60s) we should immediately go back to normal. I don't think that makes sense. People under 60 still have good reason not to get infected, particularly when they are not vaccinated! Not everyone can receive the initial vaccine (immune compromised people and children).
> 
> Shrugging about a high level of infection is not a great idea...


I suppose there is a multi-level movement when going back to normal, which I should have explained. What I am saying is that once we have everyone from age 60 and up, pre-exist conditions, plus essential workers, vaccinated, we can open up the economy pretty much fully.

Of course there will be infections, but the infections that matter enough to keep those businesses closed are ones that result in serious harm to humans. There will be some of those, but we can't shut down an economy because a bunch of people do not want to maintain precautions (social distance, mask wearing, etc.) until they are vaccinated. We already know some people will never get vaccinated.

The direction new infections go with this move, I don't know for sure, but as long as our hospitals can handle the flow, then it is the right strategy. I am 56. I will still wear a mask and will not hang around other people too closely. What others do is up to them. 

Anyway, I have no doubt that is what they will do, so I suppose the suggestion is a mute point.

Just so everyone knows. *To vaccinate everyone in Canada, older then 60 plus essential workers, etc., we need about 20 million doses of vaccine.*


----------



## Eclectic12

OptsyEagle said:


> ... Take two people, one age 30 and the other age 60, infect them with the same size dose and the one who is age 60 will soon offer a much higher dose of infection to others and will be doing that for many, many more days, then the younger one will ...


Some googling for studies suggests it is not so clear cut.

For the up to age twenty two group, a study says:
a) a lower amount of virus in the airway than adults.
b) age ten and over having a similar amount of virus in the airway as an adult in the ICU fighting covid.
c) "significantly more" amount of virus in the airway than an adult in the ICU fighting covid.

A separate study that looked at all ages by estimated viral load by age categories reported no significant difference between any two age categories including children.


Some researchers were expecting a quick confirmation of low amounts while others started their study because they were puzzled by the high levels showing up in swabs by younger folks.


Cheers


----------



## OptsyEagle

Eclectic12 said:


> Some googling for studies suggests it is not so clear cut.
> 
> For the up to age twenty two group, a study says:
> a) a lower amount of virus in the airway than adults.
> b) age ten and over having a similar amount of virus in the airway as an adult in the ICU fighting covid.
> c) "significantly more" amount of virus in the airway than an adult in the ICU fighting covid.
> 
> A separate study that looked at all ages by estimated viral load by age categories reported no significant difference between any two age categories including children.
> 
> 
> Some researchers were expecting a quick confirmation of low amounts while others started their study because they were puzzled by the high levels showing up in swabs by younger folks.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Did they tell you "how long" that virus was in each of their airways.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Just so you know, most of my theories here surrounds the education I received in microbiology 34 years ago. One day, during a lesson, we beat to death the issues surrounding the development of a "bio-weapon". Not sure how many people have ever given much thought to this nightmare but I had the pleasure of studying it for an evening with a PhD level microbiologist.

Assuming you want three things. Kill as many people as possible, reduce the threat of retaliation and of course don't kill your own people, what kind of virus would you develop?

1st of all, remember we are building a living organism. Not designing a new car. That of course is always an ongoing obstacle.

Here is the main issue I want to point out. If the virus you create, kills many, many people of all ages, it must be very novel, very violent. Those viruses, unfortunately for our evil scientists, will tend to kill people quickly. Either in a few days or even 1. That may sound wonderful, but a dead person cannot spread a virus. So the deadlier it is, the quicker it tends to burn itself out. Fizzles away like a dud artillery shell. If the virus is less deadly, it may spread better, but it is not killing enough people. Plus, to add more obstacles,* people of different ages maintain their contagiousness at different levels and almost always for different amounts of time. *(This is a very important factor pertaining to ability of a virus to spread)

This difference in "time to death" and "infectiousness" pertaining to the different age groups in a society, is quite the PITA for any evil microbiology scientist. (Thankfully)

To answer how all the 3 things, mentioned above, are dealt with would take quite a much larger post, but to help you sleep at night, they are very, very difficult to achieve. Plus there is always herd immunity, which is a microB law that says you cannot kill them all, and because of this, most bio-weapon research is done for "defensive" purposes only. Since so far, it has always been a crappy offensive weapon.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Did they tell you "how long" that virus was in each of their airways.


Are you asking how long after they were a confirmed case that they had a positive PCR test?


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Are you asking how long after they were a confirmed case that they had a positive PCR test?


No. We were talking about "how infectious" people are in the various age groups. Everyone seems to want to call every infection the same and therefore assume that anyone infected is as dangerous as any other person infected. I am telling you they are not.

The amount of virus each are shedding (virus amounts in airways) is very important, but probably less important than "how long" did these different age groups have virus in their airways to shed. Younger people recover and get rid of that virus, in their airways and everywhere else, quicker then older people do. This is the point everyone seems to miss. I am not sure why it is so hard to grasp. It is an observation that has been right in front of us all since the pandemic began.

In addition, one more point that goes with this is the fact that your immune system tends to attack the viruses it sees first. Since we acquire an airborne virus through the nose and mouth, you have to understand that even if a person is sick with the virus for many days, they usually stop being infectious earlier then that, because of this selection of where the immune system fight starts. So, not only do younger people eliminate their viral loads quicker, but they eliminate their viral loads offered to infect others (within their airways), even quicker then that. This is why many people become non-infectious even when they are still sick.

Can you not see how this works?


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> No. We were talking about "how infectious" people are in the various age groups.


Well you asked ... 


OptsyEagle said:


> Did they tell you "how long" that virus was in each of their airways.


So how do they determine "how long that virus was in each of their airways" ???? 
A swab for a PCR test isn't good enough?


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Well you asked ...
> 
> So how do they determine "how long that virus was in each of their airways" ????
> A swab for a PCR test isn't good enough?


The easiest one is if a 50 year old had a positive test in 10 days but a 20 year old was negative in 5 days, you know the 50 year old was at least TWICE as infectious then the 20 year old, before you even measure viral loads. It's the time they are spreading it that makes such a difference to our infection numbers. 

This should not be as complicated as it seems to be IMO.

I am going to assume here that if a swab cannot pick up virus from a person's nose and mouth, most likely you and I cannot do it either. Negative test = not infectious anymore (there might be an exception if one looks hard enough but that works for what I am saying).


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> The easiest one is if a 50 year old had a positive test in 10 days but a 20 year old was negative in 5 days, you know the 50 year old was at least TWICE as infectious then the 20 year old, before you even measure viral loads. It's the time they are spreading it that makes such a difference to our infection numbers.
> 
> This should not be as complicated as it seems to be IMO.
> 
> I am going to assume here that if a swab cannot pick up virus from a person's nose and mouth, most likely you and I cannot do it either. Negative test = not infectious anymore (there might be an exception if one looks hard enough but that works for what I am saying).


Actually they currently deem people non-infectious even if they still have a positive PCR test. And as the studies listed before there is no clear answer for viral loading. You can continue to extrapolate to express your opinion but it's not related to the science on the matter.


----------



## Eclectic12

OptsyEagle said:


> Did they tell you "how long" that virus was in each of their airways.


When I have more time, I'll have to see if they do or don't.

What I recall is comments that seemed to be comparing similar points for the younger and older groups.
IIRC, the last one commented that transmission was reported for all groups for up to thirty days, where the overall conclusion was age made no difference.

It may be that some of the studies that were thought to be a quick confirmation of low amounts were not designed for tracking how long and mapping the "most, less and least" phases.


Cheers


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Actually they currently deem people non-infectious even if they still have a positive PCR test. And as the studies listed before there is no clear answer for viral loading. You can continue to extrapolate to express your opinion but it's not related to the science on the matter.


I can't comment on what data is available or not to satisfy someone who does not want to make a best guess decision on the insufficient but still observable data available. The only reason I saw the situation unfolding the way it did, was because it is actually part of "bio-weaponry 101". We did not study bio-weapons because of a sick minded nature. It was because it is perfect for understanding the fundamentals of virology.

*If you had an airborne bio-weapon, where would you release it?*

Most would think that a highly populated area like Grand Central Station in NYC, would be perfect. That is not where it would be released. They will look for a much smaller more perfect spreader of the virus. Most times you will find that squarely in the ages of people 40 to 50.

1) Young enough to live long enough to spread a lot of virus.
2) Old enough to take a while to get rid of it so as to spread it for longer periods of time
3) Old enough to be an asymptomatic spreader, of deadly size doses, for a much longer period of time then younger.
4) Young enough to move around society and travel a lot compared to the more older.
5) Still in the workplace, still in the social scene, many still dating.
6) Interaction with MORE different age groups then any other age group.

That type of thing. It holds true with natural viruses as well. It will vary depending on other attributes of a particular virus but for C-19, it seems to fall right into this category, from what I have seen.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> I can't comment on what data is available or not ...


I believe that is where your problem is. 

It does remind me of this though ...


----------



## OptsyEagle

So for anyone interested I will attempt to end my lesson on bio-weaponry with the following points of optimism, for anyone who might lose sleep or had never knew such weapons were even in the imagination of man/women.

I mentioned that bio-weapons tend to not work very well. A better description is that they suck. Luckily the reason for this, is many, many reasons, but I will list the main 3 reasons why bio-weapons suck for the person thinking of using them:

These are fundamental virology laws that luckily we have not figured out a way to get around:

1) The more violent the virus, the quicker a person dies, the less time that person can spread the virus
The less violent the virus, the more time a person has to spread it, but less people will die.
There is not really a sweet spot in the middle that works all that well. This leaves more people alive then herd immunity.

2) Once you release the virus, you lose all control of dosage.
The amount of the initial dose of infection is critical to how many people die and how quickly they die and therefore how well the virus spreads.

3) The law of Herd Immunity
No matter how hard you work and no matter how perfect the virus is for warfare, Herd Immunity tells you that you can never kill them all. Anything over 50% is just wishful thinking.

So sleep well. I haven't even talked about defensive measures, retaliations and the fact that with virology, what does not kill you makes you stronger. So releasing two viruses or more does not help all that much as one might think.


----------



## bgc_fan

In other news, it looks like Pfizer is planning on keeping its priorities in a first-come first-served fashion, and the US is not going to jump the queue even though they now want more doses. Particularly since Pfizer offered to provide another 100M more doses to the US, but they declined. Due to other country commitments, any further deliveries past the initial 100M will have to take place in June/July timeframe.









Pfizer Board Member Gottlieb Confirms Trump Administration Rejected ‘Multiple’ Offers For More Vaccine Doses


The U.S. will have to wait until summer 2021 to acquire additional doses of the vaccine.




www.forbes.com


----------



## sags

Trump is exploring executive orders and an Emergency Act declaration to force the American company Pfizer to vaccinate the entire US population first.

The US can also apply tremendous leverage over the drug companies if they want to sell their products in the US. 

Hopefully Pfizer will remain firm.


----------



## OptsyEagle

An article on two identical twins, age 60 that contracted Covid-19. Both went to the hospital, but one was discharged fairly soon and the other headed towards the ICU and was later intubated.









Simultaneous COVID-19 in Monozygotic Twins | Annals of Internal Medicine






www.acpjournals.org





They go on to say this:

_*



Background:

Click to expand...

*_


> * Although we are rapidly learning more about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we still know little about why some infected persons have severe disease and others are asymptomatic or have mild disease. *


I am not sure what is the big mystery. Initial dose of infection. We knew about the effect the infecting dose has on your outcome in 1986, but for some reason it still seems to be a mystery to so many. They mention it later as a possibility but did nothing to find out...and they call these scientific studies.

*



Also, differences in the virus—for example, differences in the infecting dose (5) or viruses with different mutations—may explain differences in illness

Click to expand...

*I would have started there since it is the most likely difference and will always be a difference, since no two infections are ever the same.

This also sheds a little light on whether the differences in outcomes for C-19 infected individuals are more related to pre-existing health issues or, as I believe, due to differences in the initial dosage of infection. Of course neither is proven but the pre-existing health argument is certainly not working very well in this case.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> I am not sure what is the big mystery. Initial dose of infection. We knew about the effect the infecting dose has on your outcome in 1986, but for some reason it still seems to be a mystery to so many. They mention it later as a possibility but did nothing to find out...and they call these scientific studies.


I didn't know until recently that the initial dose can be a factor in severity of the disease. I wonder if the same is true for influenza?

There was a CBC TV interview with an expert who said masks keep you safe because they reduce the amount of dose. So when you are wearing a mask, you might still inhale the virus but end up with a milder condition. That's a big win and is a very strong case for wearing a mask to protect yourself... for anyone who will listen, anyway.

Here's an article on this topic








Does Virus Dose or Load Predict How Sick You Get With COVID-19?


Initial exposure, strength of virus infection both seen as contributors to illness severity




www.medpagetoday.com





The authors point to a couple examples of interest. One is a specific cruise ship which tested positive for COVID19 but where most people were asymptomatic. The ship required everyone to wear masks and the theory is that masks reduced the amount of dose, reducing the severity of the illness.

Another study was on hamsters that wore masks. Adorable _and_ life-saving research. The hamsters that were given a higher initial dose developed worse cases. Hamsters with masks were shown to get milder COVID19.

IMO, wearing a mask protects *me* from coming down with severe COVID19. Maybe that means I inhale some of the virus, but a low enough dose that my immune system can handle it. Or I'll have an easier time handling the infection, hopefully.



> "We know that a higher inoculum [initial dose] of an infectious agent generally makes people sicker," said Peter Katona, MD, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the University of California in Los Angeles.


----------



## sags

The COVID is so contagious it can get in anywhere.

Our hospital has outbreaks on several floors. A guy went in to the hospital for pneumonia and caught COVID while there and died from it.

The hospital administration say a few employees broke mask and distancing protocol during lunches and breaks and the virus spread among them and then to the floors.

I hope people don't relax because a vaccine is coming. It doesn't help until it is in people's arms and that is a year away.


----------



## sags

Alberta is being forced to do what it should have done months ago and lock down some businesses and gatherings.

They tried to put a secure wall up to protect the vulnerable and it didn't work. Lock downs are the only way to keep the virus at bay until a vaccine arrives.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> I didn't know until recently that the initial dose can be a factor in severity of the disease. I wonder if the same is true for influenza?
> 
> There was a CBC TV interview with an expert who said masks keep you safe because they reduce the amount of dose. So when you are wearing a mask, you might still inhale the virus but end up with a milder condition. That's a big win and is a very strong case for wearing a mask to protect yourself... for anyone who will listen, anyway.
> 
> Here's an article on this topic
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Does Virus Dose or Load Predict How Sick You Get With COVID-19?
> 
> 
> Initial exposure, strength of virus infection both seen as contributors to illness severity
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.medpagetoday.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The authors point to a couple examples of interest. One is a specific cruise ship which tested positive for COVID19 but where most people were asymptomatic. The ship required everyone to wear masks and the theory is that masks reduced the amount of dose, reducing the severity of the illness.
> 
> Another study was on hamsters that wore masks. Adorable _and_ life-saving research. The hamsters that were given a higher initial dose developed worse cases. Hamsters with masks were shown to get milder COVID19.
> 
> IMO, wearing a mask protects *me* from coming down with severe COVID19. Maybe that means I inhale some of the virus, but a low enough dose that my immune system can handle it. Or I'll have an easier time handling the infection, hopefully.


I suppose I was lucky. As mentioned, in 1986 I took a night course in College for 1 semester in Microbiology. I wanted to add to my Chemistry education in hopes of being seen a little ahead of others in my Chemistry field.

I posted about the bio-weapon issues, not to train people to prepare for such things, but because I believe it was that particular evening that left me with so much fundamental information on virology that enabled it to stick with me for over 34 years. Since this information was so basic and fundamental, I used it since then to avoid colds and flu, and I suppose I just assumed everyone else knew this stuff. I have found out differently and apologize to anyone I may have offended about it. Obviously microbiology is not easy and certainly is not something that is commonly taught.

One last point, that is obvious when you see it, but not as readily understood about the infecting dose is this:

*What is the infecting dose*

The size of your infection (infecting dose) will be a function of these two things:

*1) The concentration of the viral load you have been exposed to*
multiplied by
*2) The time you stayed exposed to that dose.*

Those two actions combined will be the most significant determinant of your outcome. Except for really frail health status, this is what saves you or kills you and everything in between, because it is the only variable in your outcome. *It is the only thing you can control. *Everything else is fixed.

So obviously. *Social distancing deals with both extremely well. Masks deal with #1 very well.  However, the only way a mask can save you is if you keep #2 in mind at the same time, and get to heck away from that contamination as quickly as you can.*

If you do the above, anyone can survive covid-19. If you don't do the above, anyone can die from Covid-19.
It is actually a choice, but I agree, many in the ICU today did not know they were making one. I am sure if they did, they would have made a better one.


----------



## Money172375

What life is like where Covid has been knocked down.....









“There Was A Pandemic?” What Life Is Like In Countries Without COVID


COVID infections are low to nonexistent in several countries, where life looks practically normal. Some people even occasionally forget there’s a pandemic going on.




www.buzzfeednews.com


----------



## sags

In North America the same politicians who lobbied against lock downs are now decrying the economic cost of not locking down.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> What life is like where Covid has been knocked down.....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “There Was A Pandemic?” What Life Is Like In Countries Without COVID
> 
> 
> COVID infections are low to nonexistent in several countries, where life looks practically normal. Some people even occasionally forget there’s a pandemic going on.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.buzzfeednews.com


 .. and watch the Yankees are going fly there in droves to share the covidlove.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> In North America the same politicians who lobbied against lock downs are now decrying the economic cost of not locking down.


 .... what??? I guess those same politicians weren't sane to begin with anyways.


----------



## bgc_fan

Money172375 said:


> What life is like where Covid has been knocked down.....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “There Was A Pandemic?” What Life Is Like In Countries Without COVID
> 
> 
> COVID infections are low to nonexistent in several countries, where life looks practically normal. Some people even occasionally forget there’s a pandemic going on.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.buzzfeednews.com


It was always going to be a short-term pain (few months of complete lockdown - no flights in or out, including citizens) to get long-term gain (return to normalcy quicker). But in North America, we're too individualistic that even the relatively mild measures we have are being protested. From the article: 

_Those countries still allowing people in are stopping any possible infections through *strict hotel quarantine programs.* In Taiwan, a migrant worker from the Philippines was this week fined roughly $3,500 for stepping outside of his room in an eight-second breach of the rules. In Australia, only citizens are permitted to enter the country and must then spend 14 days locked in a room, unable to open a window, inside a hotel patrolled by guards — a privilege for which the inbound travelers are required to pay more than $2,200._

_Travel between Australian states was also mostly curtailed for months, especially during the Victorian surge. Western Australia only opened its borders this week after a nine-month closure, prompting tearful reunions at airports. “We’ve kept COVID out, protecting people’s lives,” boasted the state’s leader, Mark McGowan. “And Western Australia's economy has roared back to life as a result, faster than we ever expected.”_

Regarding the bolded text, remember when the Canadian government was sourcing hotels to offer a quarantine option to returning citizens and that was spun out as COVID concentration camps? We could never have done what these countries have done basically because people are too selfish.


----------



## andrewf

james4beach said:


> I didn't know until recently that the initial dose can be a factor in severity of the disease. I wonder if the same is true for influenza?
> 
> There was a CBC TV interview with an expert who said masks keep you safe because they reduce the amount of dose. So when you are wearing a mask, you might still inhale the virus but end up with a milder condition. That's a big win and is a very strong case for wearing a mask to protect yourself... for anyone who will listen, anyway.
> 
> Here's an article on this topic
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Does Virus Dose or Load Predict How Sick You Get With COVID-19?
> 
> 
> Initial exposure, strength of virus infection both seen as contributors to illness severity
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.medpagetoday.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The authors point to a couple examples of interest. One is a specific cruise ship which tested positive for COVID19 but where most people were asymptomatic. The ship required everyone to wear masks and the theory is that masks reduced the amount of dose, reducing the severity of the illness.
> 
> Another study was on hamsters that wore masks. Adorable _and_ life-saving research. The hamsters that were given a higher initial dose developed worse cases. Hamsters with masks were shown to get milder COVID19.
> 
> IMO, wearing a mask protects *me* from coming down with severe COVID19. Maybe that means I inhale some of the virus, but a low enough dose that my immune system can handle it. Or I'll have an easier time handling the infection, hopefully.


They were thinking this fairly early on. Only reasonable explanation why so many health care workers were getting to ill/dying despite being young/healthy.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> They were thinking this fairly early on. Only reasonable explanation why so many health care workers were getting to ill/dying despite being young/healthy.


Yes. They have the double wammy of infection risk. Exposed to a very, very, very, pretty much the *highest possible concentration of Covid-19* that exists on the planet...and...they have to *do that for hours and hours* and sometime overtime hours, sometimes everyday.

You need more then a cotton mask to deal with that. As we know many die and many of those were very healthy and young.

As I have said, there is a dose of covid-19 that can kill anyone. There is also a much smaller dose that anyone, of almost any health status, can survive from. We just first, need to be aware of that, and then we have to make the right choice.


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> Regarding the bolded text, remember when the Canadian government was sourcing hotels to offer a quarantine option to returning citizens and that was spun out as COVID concentration camps? We could never have done what these countries have done basically because people are too selfish.


Good point. Australia is doing great during COVID and I think it has a lot to do with the heavy restrictions. We should have been doing what Australia is doing: heavy travel restrictions between states. And real quarantine requirements when entering the country: they actually put you in a 14 day facility.

I occasionally talk with people on the streets of Vancouver and you wouldn't believe how many visitors I keep encountering from Quebec, Alberta, Ontario (yes even now). They are tourists coming here "for fun" or visiting some family.

There was a time this summer when virtually everyone I talked to was from Quebec, nearly all in their 20s and 30s. Gee I wonder if they are carrying the virus.

Where does this mentality come from, that even in the middle of a national emergency, that you should be allowed to zip around in planes for fun?? I know where it comes from ... the Americans and their stupid ideas, terrible cultural influences.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> I didn't know until recently that the initial dose can be a factor in severity of the disease. I wonder if the same is true for influenza?


The answer to that question is yes. Dosage is usually fundamental to all viruses. The only thing I want to add is that every virus has a few unique qualities that sometimes make it appear that dosage is not a factor. For example, if you look at the "most violent" or "most benign" viruses, they appear that dosage does not matter. In the benign, whether you get a small dose or huge dose, it is so weak that it appears like dosage does not matter. Everyone lives. Violent viruses are the same. Ebola for example. I think it kills 90% of infected humans. Still, why did the 10% survive? Dosage. Obviously a survivable dose of Ebola is very difficult to acquire, but not impossible.

Since 1986, I used this concept to avoid colds and flu. My wife took the bus to get to work everyday. Consequently, she tended to be the one to bring the cold viruses into the house. She was probably 4-1 in acquiring them, over our 32 years together. I figured the enclosed environment of riding the bus for a 1/2 an hour, twice a day, was probably where she was picking these up. Knowing whatever virus made it into my house, I was going to most likely contract, I always made a point to give her a big kiss when she came in from work. She probably thought I was just being attentive and a little passionate, but it was all microbiology 101. lol

The idea was that if she brought back a cold virus that was going to give her a nasty cold for 3 to 7 days, I wanted to acquire a very small percentage of that virus, BEFORE it grew into a very concentrated level. If successful, I would be asymptomatic or at worst, a sore throat for a maybe a day. This actually worked, in my opinion, but not as often as I would like. The problem I believe I encountered was that even if I was successful in acquiring a small dose, early in the incubation, I also acquired further doses, each hour that I was with her in the enclosed house, as her viral load increased. Avoiding a cold was not worth leaving her for a week, so I just attempted to do my best. My best was simply proactively acquiring the virus in a small dose very early and then trying to avoid her as much as I could, wash my hands very frequently and hopefully to give my body time to build up its defenses. I probably got 1/2 the colds she did and, of course a few times, I was the one to bring the virus into the house.

Anyway, a slow day, so I thought I would add that.


----------



## sags

Dosage doesn't explain why so many people suffer little or no symptoms early and then later develop the life threatening symptoms.

It appears to me to more related to how long the virus is in the system replicating and spreading to particular areas of the body, than the initial load.

Some people get one set of symptoms and other people get other symptoms. The virus seems to randomly develop in different areas of weakness.

A high initial dosage should cause a patient to suffer the worst symptoms early........but that is not the pattern that is usually observed.

I think the likelihood of infection is certainly enhanced when surrounded by the virus, but am not convinced it dictates the eventual symptoms.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Dosage doesn't explain why so many people suffer little or no symptoms early and then later develop the life threatening symptoms.
> 
> It appears to me to more related to how long the virus is in the system replicating and spreading to particular areas of the body, than the initial load.
> 
> Some people get one set of symptoms and other people get other symptoms. The virus seems to randomly develop in different areas of weakness.
> 
> A high initial dosage should cause a patient to suffer the worst symptoms early........but that is not the pattern that is usually observed.
> 
> I think the likelihood of infection is certainly enhanced when surrounded by the virus, but am not convinced it dictates the eventual symptoms.


Dosage is not the only factor in your outcome, just the most important for probably 99% of us. Plus, all viruses have their own unique qualities that tend to offer other issues, but dosage will almost always be one of the important ones.

For example, Ebola's main issue is the virus is just too deadly. It is really hard to acquire a small enough dose to offer a person much hope of survival. That said, has anyone ever wondered why we have been able to contain Ebola?

We may want to answer that question with acknowledgement to the individuals fighting those serious battles, mostly in Africa. They do deserve much credit and without them many more people would have died, but that is not the primary answer.

The reason the deadly virus of Ebola was able to be contained was because it was so deadly. When a virus kills its host so quickly, its transmission rate drops to much more manageable levels. These concepts are fundamental. They are usually not alone and there are always exceptions to distract us, but they are rules that are rarely broken.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I am going to continue to talk about some of these basic fundamentals in hopes of them being of help to someone. It was only a night course for one semester so there are not that many of them. If you are bothered by them either pass over my posts or there is an ignore button.

Anyone want to take a stab at the following two questions:

1) What makes a virus deadly or benign?
2) Why do younger people do better fighting viruses then older people?

1) The violent nature of a virus is, unfortunately caused by a few unique qualities of the virus itself, and we know "how novel" a virus is, is obviously one of them, but what is probably the main reason a virus is either deadly or benign is *"its reproductive rate"*. How quickly does the virus build up in the body COMPARED to how quickly does the body activate its immune response against it. So, if a virus doubles in 12 hours it has the potential to build up to much more harmful levels then a virus that doubles every 24 hours. The speed of your immune response does not really change.

2) The main reason younger people do better fighting viruses then older people, is not because they have some unique feature that protects them, that older people do not have. It is because their *immune system responds FASTER*. Being healthier in other respects helps as well, and some viruses may present some unique differences, but that is probably the main reason for the difference in outcomes, based on age. Assuming the same infecting dose.

So now put the two together. Since your immune system works about as fast as it can work, no matter what amount of virus you have been infected with, if the reproduction of that virus is too fast in comparison to the speed of your immune response, you will get very, very sick. If the reverse, you might show no symptoms at all.

So what are we actually doing by reducing the infecting dose by wearing a mask. We are trying to *give our bodies more time to respond.*

If the virus I am worried about can double every 12 hours and I wear a mask and reduce the dose of my infection by 75%. I have just given my body 48 more hours to build up its immune defenses against this virus. That can be precious time. This works for all ages and pretty much all viruses.

Lastly if you are infected by the same virus above but get quadruple the dose of infection, that is the equivalent of losing 48 precious hours of help from your immune system. Depending on your age, that could be fatal.


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto asks governments to ensure Santa is exempt from travel restrictions



> _Toronto is looking to make it official—Santa Claus should be considered an essential service and should not have to adhere to any travel restrictions come Christmas Eve.
> 
> A motion expected to be presented at *Wednesday’s city council meeting asks the Ontario government to deem Santa Claus an essential service and calls on the federal government to ensure the man in red, along with his reindeer, are exempt from all quarantine measures*_*. *...


 ... I really wonder what those guys/gals at city council do all day other than trying to play cute (while lacking the expertise at it) and collecting a pay. 

What happens when the kids ask to visit Santa Claus at the restricted (locked down) mall(s)? The kids already have been told that they won't be able to see (or wave) in person at the jolly white-haired fellow this year 'cause the actual parade has been cancelled as with mom and dad's annual Xmas parties. Also, visiing grannies for Xmas this year is out of the question 

Idea: 🍩Maybe mayor Tory should dress up as Santa with his council buddies as elves, hosting a Zoom party with everyone's living room as the set, whilst explaining Mrs. Claus has taken a hiatus this Xmas.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> So now put the two together. Since your immune system works about as fast as it can work, no matter what amount of virus you have been infected with, if the reproduction of that virus is too fast in comparison to the speed of your immune response, you will get very, very sick. If the reverse, you might show no symptoms at all.
> 
> So what are we actually doing by reducing the infecting dose by wearing a mask. We are trying to give our bodies more time to respond.


Good points.

Did a little digging into the current research available, quite a number of new papers/studies have been posted in the past month. 

Just to touch on young/old immune system .. age not only can change the speed of the response but also the amount of the response (i.e. bigger attacking army when you're young).

Also found some replication data for covid-19. It takes ~10 mins to enter a cell and ~10 hours to produce 1000 virions within that cell. So this 1 to 1000 scale shows us how fast covid can advance when already inside a body, if given the chance.

Obviously direct viral load testing data on humans isn't available for covid-19 due to potentially fatal outcomes but some have correlated levels close to that of other viruses. To put in in basic terms, the HID50 (amount needed to infect 50% of people hit with the same specific dose) could fit into one aerosolized droplet. Note this number does change based on the delivery point. Possibly much more would be needed if you got that into your eye as opposed to getting it in your mouth, nose or directly inhaled it into your lungs.

Probably the biggest factor for covid spread is the infectious period starts, on average, 2 days before onset of symptoms (if present at all). So if they are only testing symptomatic people chances are they've already been in contact with others not knowing they were already infected. This is likely why we see things like isolation and limiting of contacts play a much bigger role than other measures.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Probably the biggest factor for covid spread is the infectious period starts, on average, 2 days before onset of symptoms (if present at all). So if they are only testing symptomatic people chances are they've already been in contact with others not knowing they were already infected. This is likely why we see things like isolation and limiting of contacts play a much bigger role than other measures.


Agreed. Most virus infections (colds, flu, C-19, etc.) will have an asymptomatic period where the person is infectious but not showing symptoms. This is more common then it is not. I was really surprised when the news about these asymptomatic people with Covid-19 was being taken as something surprising. It is actually something quite common. The time between infection and symptoms (the asymptomatic time) varies but lets face it. You acquire a virus, it incubates which is another way of saying it reproduces and once it starts getting to a viral load level where it is big enough to be a problem, you start showing symptoms. This takes time and that time is asymptomatic time.

Two more things about that. * Some of the symptoms a person has can come from either the virus attacking you OR your immune system attacking the virus*. For example, a fever symptom is believed to be related to the immune system fighting the virus, not something directly from the virus itself. The sore throat symptom is probably the result of an irritation caused by the invasion of the virus.

2nd point, is that we know that when a person gets infected the viral load increases with its reproduction. Eventually the immune system kicks in, and in this example I am going to say, brings you back to your original health. Let's say that time from infection to feeling tickidy boo again, is 15 days. Many times if you test that person they might be negative on the 10th day, for example, and therefore not infectious anymore. That happens because, although it took 15 days for your immune system to neutralize the virus throughout your body, it only took 10 days for it to neutralize it in your breathing tracks and it was at that point you become non-infectious to others. That is where the virus was first seen by your immune system and so your immune system starts its fight right there. The earlier one gets started the earlier some success starts to be seen and that first success is usually seen where you started. This is quite common in viruses as well. *Your infectious time is rarely the same as the total time that your body is fighting active virus.*


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

I did a search just now for Canada's death rate over the last 10 years and came up with this. Notice there is no unusual increase this year, in fact the increase is rather lower than in some previous years.
The information comes from here Canada Death Rate 1950-2020 
From statista.com - This statistic shows the total number of *deaths in Canada* from 2000 to 2020. Between July 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020, there were 300,314 *deaths* reported in *Canada*. 

Compare this to 13,350 Covid deaths. Since they did not significantly raise the death rate perhaps most of those who died of Covid would have died of something else. Not impossible since most of them were old and sick.
We should take Covid seriously but there is no need to lose our minds over it. 

Canada - Historical Death Rate Data  YearDeath RateGrowth Rate20207.8030.580%20197.7580.600%20187.7121.070%20177.6301.090%20167.5481.110%20157.4651.110%20147.3831.120%20137.3010.340%20127.2760.340%20117.2510.330%20107.2270.350%


----------



## s1231

​


Rusty O'Toole said:


> I did a search just now for Canada's death rate over the last 10 years and came up with this. Notice there is no unusual increase this year, in fact the increase is rather lower than in some previous years.
> The information comes from here Canada Death Rate 1950-2020
> From statista.com - This statistic shows the total number of *deaths in Canada* from 2000 to 2020. Between July 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020, there were 300,314 *deaths* reported in *Canada*.
> 
> Compare this to 13,350 Covid deaths. Since they did not significantly raise the death rate perhaps most of those who died of Covid would have died of something else. Not impossible since most of them were old and sick.
> We should take Covid seriously but there is no need to lose our minds over it.
> 
> Canada - Historical Death Rate Data YearDeath RateGrowth Rate20207.8030.580%20197.7580.600%20187.7121.070%20177.6301.090%20167.5481.110%20157.4651.110%20147.3831.120%20137.3010.340%20127.2760.340%20117.2510.330%20107.2270.350%


interesting, USA is

2020​8.880​1.120%​

2019​8.782​1.120%​2018​8.685​1.220%​2017​8.580​1.240%​2016​8.475​1.270%​2015​8.369​1.270%​2014​8.264​1.290%​2013​8.159​0.090%​2012​8.152​0.090%​





__





U.S. Death Rate 1950-2022


Chart and table of the U.S. death rate from 1950 to 2022. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.




www.macrotrends.net




*add more data


----------



## Retired Peasant

s1231 said:


> interesting, USA is


Perhaps a reflection that healthcare isn't universal there.


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I did a search just now for Canada's death rate over the last 10 years and came up with this. Notice there is no unusual increase this year, in fact the increase is rather lower than in some previous years.


Since Canada's covid deaths are on the rise again, this year is not over. And if many decide to get together over the holidays another huge spike in cases (and deaths) could occur in Jan/Feb 2021.

Also, the overall death rate may be about the same but did the pandemic decrease fatalities in some areas?


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

cainvest said:


> Since Canada's covid deaths are on the rise again, this year is not over. And if many decide to get together over the holidays another huge spike in cases (and deaths) could occur in Jan/Feb 2021.
> 
> Also, the overall death rate may be about the same but did the pandemic decrease fatalities in some areas?


Diagnosed cases are on the rise but deaths are still lower than last April. We are now 2 weeks from the end of the year, if we have the same average number of deaths as the rest of the year the toll will rise from 13,350 to 13,890.
New vaccines will be rolled out by the end of the year so next year should see the end of it, if you believe in science.


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Diagnosed cases are on the rise but deaths are still lower than last April. We are now 2 weeks from the end of the year, if we have the same average number of deaths as the rest of the year the toll will rise from 13,350 to 13,890.


Covid deaths will always lag new cases. You're also not accounting for the difference in the type of deaths for people due to the pandemic situation.


----------



## OptsyEagle

There is no doubt that Covid-19 is not an overly violent virus when compared to the entire population. The numbers have shown that. The biggest problem with covid-19 was not the death rate rendered upon the overall population but the death rate that was directed at the more older population. In Ontario, if you contract Covid-19 AND you are 80 or older, you have a 25% chance of dying. Increase that population to account for 60 or older and you are still left with a staggering 9% death rate.

No matter how little value we want to put on those lives I don't think many of us would have the same opinions we do, and I know most of us would act tremendously with more caution, if we, or especially our children, faced a 9% or higher death rate. Think about that.

Now, where are those people picking up that deadly virus. Since there are way more people NOT 60 or older then are, obviously we can say that the majority of the time, they are picking up that virus from younger people. So, taken a few steps further you can see that the ONLY hope these people have is if we behave ourselves.

That is the problem with Covid-19.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

I take your point, since I am one of those old crocks with underlying health conditions. I still say the media is over reacting and I will continue to take precautions to guard my own health.


----------



## Money172375

Everything I’m hearing in Ontario seems to say that hospitals and ICU levels are still heading to dangerous levels. I tend to agree. We haven’t seen the full impact of the record number of cases the last 2 weeks. We saw a nice drop in cases today though. A few more hospitalizations and we’re back to cancelling surgeries. I had a minor surgery cancelled in May...now scheduled for Feb....I think it might get cancelled again.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

I saw my kidney specialist at Peterborough hospital last thursday, I asked how many Covid patients were in the hospital and the answer was one. 4 months ago I asked the same question and the answer was two.
He did say the GTA was harder hit but they have a population in the millions. There are 596 serious or critical cases in all of Canada.
I don't doubt the corporate media is still saying this thing rivals the Black Plague but I don't see it.


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I saw my kidney specialist at Peterborough hospital last thursday, I asked how many Covid patients were in the hospital and the answer was one. 4 months ago I asked the same question and the answer was two.
> He did say the GTA was harder hit but they have a population in the millions. There are 596 serious or critical cases in all of Canada.
> I don't doubt the corporate media is still saying this thing rivals the Black Plague but I don't see it.


No sure what your point is other than you should stop listening to your "corporate media" sources.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

cainvest said:


> No sure what your point is other than you should stop listening to your "corporate media" sources.


That is the point.


----------



## james4beach

Rusty it's possible that your local hospitals aren't heavily affected, but many hospitals throughout Canada are suffering under the load of COVID patients. It varies by region. In Manitoba, I know that hospitals are very heavy loaded. The same is true in Alberta.

This is important in other ways, for all of us. What if you (or I) have a heart attack, stroke, or other emergency? You probably want to be able to get into the hospital and be seen immediately, and get care.

The burden on hospitals from COVID puts all of us in danger. Healthcare workers in many cities are physically and mentally exhausted from dealing with COVID patients.

I suggest reading this article, especially the section: "What happens when a hospital reaches capacity?"

I realize it might not be happening where you live, but it's happening in many other places. Nurses and doctors can only work so much. They are already tired, exhausted, and are probably traumatized to some degree. As hospitals reach capacity, it means you will get worse care than you normally would... the article gives examples such as a heart attack patient won't be able to get as much monitoring during their recovery as they normally do (not enough nurses available)

Many doctors and nurses are going to have PTSD after all of this is over. I'm sure many will retire or just stop working. I think you should also be cautious about becoming complacent, because this is exactly what happened in some rural areas of the US early on. They said "covid isn't a big deal here" but then, BAM, it came to places like North Dakota at enormous levels.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Everything I’m hearing in Ontario seems to say that hospitals and ICU levels are still heading to dangerous levels. I tend to agree. We haven’t seen the full impact of the record number of cases the last 2 weeks. We saw a nice drop in cases today though. A few more hospitalizations and we’re back to cancelling surgeries. I had a minor surgery cancelled in May...now scheduled for Feb....I think it might get cancelled again.


In London the outbreaks are at the Hospitals. 

That's why we are in Red, while some other areas with higher numbers are still Orange.

Also as staff go into test/quarantine cycles, the staffing problems will get worse.
Throw in childcare problems (can't shuffle to Grandparents) and we have some real problems.


----------



## sags

One of the biggest problems with widespread spread of the virus, which is the case in the second wave more than the first one, is there is no excess capacity of doctors and nurses to move to a specific "hot zone". Every area is basically left with their own resources and when they need more.......too bad. Already hospitals in the US are full and doctors, nurses, and paramedics are treating people at home. The healthcare worker numbers are getting thinner as time goes on and they burn out or get the infection themselves.

Thank goodness for the vaccines, but it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> That is the point.


Not sure I'm understanding what you're saying but I'll take a stab at it.

You are saying things are not bad with covid in Canada (corporate media says it is bad) because your specific hospital doesn't have many cases. Right?


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Here we go again. Last spring the news was full of Covid 19 stories predicting millions of deaths and making it out to be the biggest threat to civilization since the Black Death. We got it, and it was bad, but not as bad as predicted. Total deaths about 1/10 what they expected. Since then we have better methods of testing and better methods of treatment, and now new vaccines are coming out. My point is we should face the reality of the situation, good or bad, and in this case it is good, or at least not as bad as we were led to believe. I don't believe we need to cripple our economy and turn into paranoid hermits.

On the other hand, I am in the high risk group, and am already a paranoid hermit (joke).


----------



## OptsyEagle

Keep in mind as well, that the overall objective here is to keep the hospital beds free, not get upset because they are. Let's be happy with the win instead of angry. Trying to adjust precautions to account for the use of "X" number of ICU beds is pretty much impossible, so lets err on the side of keeping them all empty.


----------



## sags

The alternative was what is happening in the US and Alberta.

Pretend the virus isn't much of a threat and continue on.......then deal with the overrun hospitals later.

Look at the poll numbers for Provincial Premiers and compare them to Trudeau's numbers. They have gone down and his have gone up.

It tells you what the Canadian public thinks about who handled the COVID situation best.

That is not to say that Trudeau hasn't created problems for himself and if he continues to do so....Chrystia Freeland will be sitting in the big chair instead of him.

But at least as it relates to the response to COVID.....Trudeau has done reasonably well in the view of most Canadians.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The alternative was what is happening in the US and Alberta.
> 
> Pretend the virus isn't much of a threat and continue on.......then deal with the overrun hospitals later.
> 
> Look at the poll numbers for Provincial Premiers and compare them to Trudeau's numbers. They have gone down and his have gone up.
> 
> It tells you what the Canadian public thinks about who handled the COVID situation best.
> 
> That is not to say that Trudeau hasn't created problems for himself and if he continues to do so....Chrystia Freeland will be sitting in the big chair instead of him.
> 
> But at least as it relates to the response to COVID.....Trudeau has done reasonably well in the view of most Canadians.


That is the point I made a post before yours. If the hospitals get overwhelmed the Premiers are accused of not locking down the population enough. If the hospitals stay under control with the ability to serve all comers, then the Premiers are accused of being to stringent. 

It's too bad that Canadians don't attempt to take a walk in a persons shoes before they judge them.


----------



## cainvest

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Here we go again. Last spring the news was full of Covid 19 stories predicting millions of deaths and making it out to be the biggest threat to civilization since the Black Death.


I think you will feel better if you stay away from reading material from unreliable media sources. 
I gather you're getting this info from places like "The National Enquirer" and such?


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> That is the point I made a post before yours. If the hospitals get overwhelmed the Premiers are accused of not locking down the population enough. If the hospitals stay under control with the ability to serve all comers, then the Premiers are accused of being to stringent.


That's always the problem with these types of situations.

If there was a harsh lockdown, travel restrictions and other measures implemented back in March for a few months, it would look like over-reaction, since the damage would have been contained quicker and it would not have been as bad. However, because the situation would not have been bad, people would start protesting the measures after a week or two and non-compliance/complacency sets in and the situation would get worse. Then people would complain, "See those lockdown measures didn't work".

Instead we went for the laissez-faire approach and hoped for the best, Alberta being the best example. They didn't get hit hard in the first wave, so why change routine and implement measures to deal with the situation. Now the second wave is starting to hit hard and the government is reluctant to react since this whole time they've been playing COVID as an inconvenience rather than an actual issue.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

If you mean I look at other sources than government media outlets and the 5 billionaire corporations you are right.









Amid fears of overwhelmed medical systems, data shows ample hospital capacity nationwide


The country is "managing pretty well," says major hospital network official.




justthenews.com


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> There is no doubt that Covid-19 is not an overly violent virus when compared to the entire population. The numbers have shown that. The biggest problem with covid-19 was not the death rate rendered upon the overall population but the death rate that was directed at the more older population. In Ontario, if you contract Covid-19 AND you are 80 or older, you have a 25% chance of dying. Increase that population to account for 60 or older and you are still left with a staggering 9% death rate.
> 
> No matter how little value we want to put on those lives I don't think many of us would have the same opinions we do, and I know most of us would act tremendously with more caution, if we, or especially our children, faced a 9% or higher death rate. Think about that.
> 
> Now, where are those people picking up that deadly virus. Since there are way more people NOT 60 or older then are, obviously we can say that the majority of the time, they are picking up that virus from younger people. So, taken a few steps further you can see that the ONLY hope these people have is if we behave ourselves.
> 
> That is the problem with Covid-19.


More importantly, those death rates are with medical care. All the people criticizing the response to the pandemic to reduce transmission (masks, distancing, etc.) don't seem to grasp that death rates would rise precipitously once ICUs are overwhelmed and doctors have to triage.


----------



## andrewf

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I saw my kidney specialist at Peterborough hospital last thursday, I asked how many Covid patients were in the hospital and the answer was one. 4 months ago I asked the same question and the answer was two.
> He did say the GTA was harder hit but they have a population in the millions. There are 596 serious or critical cases in all of Canada.
> I don't doubt the corporate media is still saying this thing rivals the Black Plague but I don't see it.


You relax restrictions and let the R number rise closer to its natural level of 3, and before you know it you have tens of thousands who would have needed ICU care but are instead warehoused in freezer trucks for lack of burial capacity.


----------



## Plugging Along

OptsyEagle said:


> There is no doubt that Covid-19 is not an overly violent virus when compared to the entire population. The numbers have shown that. The biggest problem with covid-19 was not the death rate rendered upon the overall population but the death rate that was directed at the more older population. In Ontario, if you contract Covid-19 AND you are 80 or older, you have a 25% chance of dying. Increase that population to account for 60 or older and you are still left with a staggering 9% death rate.
> 
> No matter how little value we want to put on those lives I don't think many of us would have the same opinions we do, and I know most of us would act tremendously with more caution, if we, or especially our children, faced a 9% or higher death rate. Think about that.
> 
> Now, where are those people picking up that deadly virus. Since there are way more people NOT 60 or older then are, obviously we can say that the majority of the time, they are picking up that virus from younger people. So, taken a few steps further you can see that the ONLY hope these people have is if we behave ourselves.
> 
> That is the problem with Covid-19.


Exactly this. I am not worried for my kids who are still in school and were in activities. I am extremely worried for my 86 father who is at home, and my mom who is a long term care home. Her home was one of the most careful as there are Chinese staff and residents. The home started to put in isolation measures for anyone who traveled in JANUARY. They were taking COVID seriously many of the staff and families personally knew of people in China who were impacted. We were so impressed that they were asking travelling visitors to not come in even in the end of February. Yet, despite these extra pre cautions and the amazing job they did, a staff member had. 8 staff, 14 residents caught it, and 6 died. That could have been my mother. I can assure it wasn't the residence that brought it in. The staff had been extra careful, they traced it back to one of the dependents living at home who caught it from someone else at school who was asymptomatic. The dependent was asymptomatic and so was the staff member when they received call from contact tracing. The staff member went for testing immediately, and found out they were positive, but had already been in close contact with other staff. They tested every single person in the home, and over the next few weeks multiple times. They found that 6 of the 8 staff that tested positive were asymptomatic, and 3 out of the 14 were asymptomatic. 

I think those that say they are fine and are not worried, need to stop thinking just about their own lives. They can get sick, give to some kid, who brings home to their parent who causes an outbreak in a facility. People need to remember connected everyone is, and that there is less than 6 degrees separation between people. 




OptsyEagle said:


> That is the point I made a post before yours. If the hospitals get overwhelmed the Premiers are accused of not locking down the population enough. If the hospitals stay under control with the ability to serve all comers, then the Premiers are accused of being to stringent.
> 
> It's too bad that Canadians don't attempt to take a walk in a persons shoes before they judge them.


Yes. I was reminded by my kids who apparently do listen to what my spouse and I said. When our AB decided not to completed locked down a few weeks ago, I supported the decision to keep restaurants, gyms and stores open. Then when they announced a locked starting last weekend, without any visiting allowed, I was frustrated and said they should have locked down a month ago, so people could have Christmas. I was reminded that is constant balance between lives and livelihoods, I would hate to be the one making these decisions. Hindsight is always 20/20.


----------



## MrMatt

Okay, this has been going on long enough.
It's time for Trudeau to close the borders to non-essential travel.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Okay, this has been going on long enough.
> It's time for Trudeau to close the borders to non-essential travel.


Who is still entering that is not a citizen or essential (medical professionals, truckers etc)?


----------



## Money172375

There are more restrictions coming.

don’t know if it’s been proven that Thanksgiving activities triggered the second wave, but the timing appears right.
Christmas will just add to that. I have family who tell me they aren’t visiting each other, then when I call them, I find out that they’re at somebody else’s home.....which is against guidelines in locked areas of Ontario. Everyone keeps saying....”but they don’t have symptoms”. I reiterate what I said earlier this year...people treat this virus like AIDS....they think they can tell if someone has it and it’s only “others” who are careless and stupid who get it. 

I would shut down every store that doesn’t sell produce and meat. Close the Home Depots, dollar stores, convenience stores etc. Make them curb-side pickup. Section off non-food areas in Costco. Do that for a month.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Who is still entering that is not a citizen or essential (medical professionals, truckers etc)?


I just want the border closed to non essential travel.
The social trips need to stop.


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> Who is still entering that is not a citizen or essential (medical professionals, truckers etc)?


I heard from my parents that my cousin who lives in Vienna is coming to Canada with her common law partner for Christmas. She's Canadian and can bring him, he is Austrian and can bring her back.

Apparently 25% of snowbirds are still planning to go south. Borders are not closed.


----------



## Spudd

MrMatt said:


> I just want the border closed to non essential travel.
> The social trips need to stop.


While I agree, I don't think they can prevent citizens from entering or leaving. According to Wikipedia (under "Freedom of Movement"), the Constitution of Canada contains mobility rights expressly in section 6 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The rights specified include the right of citizens to leave and enter the country and the right of both citizens and permanent residents to move within its boundaries. 

Unfortunately the US allows Canadians to fly in. I think it would be better if we enforced quarantine on re-entry in hotels like Australia is doing, but I suspect people would complain it restricts their freedoms too much.


----------



## sags

One big difference between COVID and Ebola and other viruses, is that people are infected without showing symptoms.

In Ebola, the infected already showed symptoms before they were transmitting the virus. It makes those types of virus much easier to identify and treat.

They also say that people who receive the vaccine are protected from the severe effects, but are still capable of catching and spreading the virus.

So just because a person has a vaccine shot doesn't mean they can be walking around carefree without a mask, as suggested by Donald Trump.

They are not cured or immune. They simply don't suffer the severe side effects because their immune system recognizes the virus and stops the spread.

In other news, a White House aide just got out of the hospital after 3 months of intensive care. He lost a toe on one leg and part of his other leg.

This virus is NOT a respiratory disease. It attacks all organs in the body, including the heart and brain. It also causes blood clots......as in this man's case.

Even more tragically, the guy has a Go Fund Me page started because the cost of his treatment wasn't fully covered.

There is NOTHING good about this virus, and I still believe it is too perfectly destructive to have naturally created......but that is just what I believe.


----------



## MrMatt

Spudd said:


> While I agree, I don't think they can prevent citizens from entering or leaving. According to Wikipedia (under "Freedom of Movement"), the Constitution of Canada contains mobility rights expressly in section 6 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The rights specified include the right of citizens to leave and enter the country and the right of both citizens and permanent residents to move within its boundaries.
> 
> Unfortunately the US allows Canadians to fly in. I think it would be better if we enforced quarantine on re-entry in hotels like Australia is doing, but I suspect people would complain it restricts their freedoms too much.


1. The Canadian Constitution is very clear that reasonable limits may be placed on any "right".
2. You may have the right to enter, however there is no right to freely move about the country in violation of health orders.

We have a constitutional right to freedom of association, which has been pretty much completely ignored in the context of COVID19.
I'm not saying that ignoring the constitutional right is wrong, just that our constitution is barely worth the paper it's written on. Unless you're a convicted terrorist, then it's worth what $10 Million?
Ordinary Canadians, we don't have rights.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario government has now told hospitals in Durham, Hamilton, Halton, Waterloo, London, Simoce, Wellington, Guelph, Peel, Toronto, York, Windsor be prepared to accept surge capacity within 48 hours. They will need to free up 10-15% of beds.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> Ontario government has now told hospitals to be prepared to accept surge capacity within 48 hours. They will need to free up 10-15% of beds.


I wasn't following this story. Can you share more, what's going on? Is there a sharp increase in cases, or is this a general guideline for new policy changes in preparation for the Christmas / New Year surge?


----------



## MrMatt

The Ontario hospital system is at/over capacity.
That's why many regions are red/grey.

I'd love to see something supporting the claim there was a directive to free up 10-15% of beds.
1. That's not going to happen.
2. The Ontario government is really trying to let the Health units coordinate the COVID response and are trying to avoid top down directives.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> The Ontario hospital system is at/over capacity.
> That's why many regions are red/grey.
> 
> I'd love to see something supporting the claim there was a directive to free up 10-15% of beds.
> 1. That's not going to happen.
> 2. The Ontario government is really trying to let the Health units coordinate the COVID response and are trying to avoid top down directives.











Ontario orders hospitals to get ready for a surge of COVID-19 patients


Hospitals are being ordered by the Ontario government to get ready for a surge of COVID-19 patients as case levels keep rising toward levels not seen since the peak of the first wave of the pandemic last spring.




www.thestar.com





they’re telling the hospitals to get ready to do this....not to do this right away. Will be given 48 hours notice if they feel it’s needed.


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> I wasn't following this story. Can you share more, what's going on? Is there a sharp increase in cases, or is this a general guideline for new policy changes in preparation for the Christmas / New Year surge?


We’ve had a few record days over the past 2 weeks. Generally, all numbers are up...hospitalization, ICU, ventilators, school cases. Lockdowns in Toronto and Peel haven’t helped much. News this morning is that further restrictions are coming in hard hit areas. More similar to Spring-time lockdowns.

every front-line doctor I see on the news says it’s pretty concerning. They’re now talking about 2000+ cases today over the next month. Christmas is sure to make it worse.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Ontario orders hospitals to get ready for a surge of COVID-19 patients
> 
> 
> Hospitals are being ordered by the Ontario government to get ready for a surge of COVID-19 patients as case levels keep rising toward levels not seen since the peak of the first wave of the pandemic last spring.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thestar.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> they’re telling the hospitals to get ready to do this....not to do this right away. Will be given 48 hours notice if they feel it’s needed.


Uhh, that's not all hospitals, only those in areas previously identified as at risk of being overwhelmed.

Yeah, so the government said "Hey hospitals at risk of being overwhelmed, do something so you're not overwhelmed by the rise of cases in your area."

They laid out this basic structure weeks (months?) ago


https://www.ontario.ca/page/covid-19-response-framework-keeping-ontario-safe-and-open


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Uhh, that's not all hospitals, only those in areas previously identified as at risk of being overwhelmed.
> 
> Yeah, so the government said "Hey hospitals at risk of being overwhelmed, do something so you're not overwhelmed by the rise of cases in your area."
> 
> They laid out this basic structure weeks (months?) ago
> 
> 
> https://www.ontario.ca/page/covid-19-response-framework-keeping-ontario-safe-and-open


I never said all hospitals.....in any event, those regions probably cover half the population of the province. And while it was part of the plan, the fact that they officially gave notice to get ready is news worthy.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> I never said all hospitals.....in any event, those regions probably cover half the population of the province. And while it was part of the plan, the fact that they officially gave notice to get ready is news worthy.


No, but you omitted that they only directed hospitals at risk of being overwhelmed to free up capacity.


Money172375 said:


> Ontario government has now told hospitals to be prepared to accept surge capacity within 48 hours. They will need to free up 10-15% of beds.


The fact that you said hospitals, without identifying any limits on which, implies all hospitals under their jurisdiction.


----------



## Money172375

For clarification and critique..

Ontario government has now told hospitals in Durham, Hamilton, Halton, Waterloo, London, Simoce, Wellington, Guelph, Peel, Toronto, York, Windsor be prepared to accept surge capacity within 48 hours. They will need to free up 10-15% of beds.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Uhh, that's not all hospitals, only those in areas previously identified as at risk of being overwhelmed.
> 
> Yeah, so the government said "Hey hospitals at risk of being overwhelmed, do something so you're not overwhelmed by the rise of cases in your area."
> 
> They laid out this basic structure weeks (months?) ago
> 
> 
> https://www.ontario.ca/page/covid-19-response-framework-keeping-ontario-safe-and-open


I guess I get lumped in with CP24 on the naughty list......damn liberal media! Lol


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> I guess I get lumped in with CP24 on the naughty list......damn liberal media! Lol


I actually don't think it's all "Liberal media", I think most media is pretty incompetent.








Toronto's 2019 Is Going To End With A Huge Snow Dump After Christmas


Got family or travel plans? Take note!




www.narcity.com


----------



## Beaver101

^ In case you didn't notice, your link is one year Xmas past. And just to update you, the forecast for the city of Toronto on December 26, 2020 is:

Sat12/26
Mainly sunny ☀







-2°
Feels like: -8
Night: -7

with some flurries on the next day ... no snow dump yet. Not sure about cities/towns north of Toronto though.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ In case you didn't notice, your link is one year Xmas past. And just to update you, the forecast for the city of Toronto on December 26, 2020 is:
> 
> Sat12/26
> Mainly sunny ☀
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -2°
> Feels like: -8
> Night: -7
> 
> with some flurries on the next day ... no snow dump yet. Not sure about cities/towns north of Toronto though.


Haha, that's why you shouldn't get your news off facebook.

The point is that the headline suggests they're getting a major snowfall, when it's just a moderate dusting.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I didn't ... my forecast came from The WeatherNetwork for Toronto. I don't use FakeBook (nor own their stocks).


----------



## Beaver101

Manitoba, three Atlantic provinces to start COVID-19 vaccinations

I was wondering about the other provinces so this is good.


----------



## Money172375

The Ontario health memo goes on to say that ALL hospitals need to prepare incrementally for 10-15% increased in bed capacity.


----------



## sags

I have no idea what the Ford government is talking about.

On a normal day......pre-COVID, our hospitals were at capacity. There were 8 hour waits in the ER and 24 hours to get a bed assigned if necessary.

They were already attending patients in aisles and closets. The ambulance capacity was being tied up as the paramedics waited at the hospitals for patients to be accepted. I was in hospital emergency room several times and was admitted and had surgery.......so I know how long it took.

Add on COVID patients and the ONLY reason there is ANY room in the hospitals is because they have cancelled all elective surgeries and many treatments. This has been going on since March and the Ford government still hasn't addressed the problems.

The media has been covering our hospital health care crisis for a long time.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> The Ontario health memo goes on to say that ALL hospitals need to prepare incrementally for 10-15% increased in bed capacity.


Yeah, they have to have plans. But they've been making plans since March.

They're not going to be adding 10-15% more beds in the hospitals, the space isn't there. They'll be using field hospitals etc, or simply kicking out other patients.


----------



## OptsyEagle

The solution is quite obvious. STOP SOCIAL GATHERINGS.

I did not say the solution was easy but whatever their plans are, whatever the governments strategies might be, all the government needs to do is ask a simple question after each idea they have. Does this new precaution stop social gatherings? If the answer is no, then keep working until it does.

To me. Simply increase the fines. In addition, make an announcement about a large group of police that will be enforcing these restrictions/penalties, a whistleblower hot line number and warn people that whatever the fines are, they will be double between December 20 and January 2.

OR

we could kick sick people out of the hospital, buy more beds, erect covid tents in the hospital parking lot and rent refrigerated trucks to take the dead bodies away.

There really is only these two ways to go.


----------



## sags

Mr. Matt is right about a lack of capacity in our hospitals. They are at maximum all the time now......before COVID strains the system further.

The amount of work involved in treating a very sick COVID patient is astounding. You see pictures of groups of physicians, nurses, and techs all gowned up to treat one patient. All that preparation requires time and energy from limited resources.

Multiply that times say........15 patients and you get an idea of the huge problem we have in healthcare.

I don't know where all these stats about empty hospital beds are coming from.

Our hospitals have a whiteboard in the ER advising the wait times in hours and days to see a doctor or get a bed.

The healthcare system is in need of total restructuring from how doctors are paid to how much capacity we have available.

Whomever is chosen to head such a restructuring must be ruthless in both the best patient care possible and the best use of taxpayer dollars.

They can't allow politicians, associations, unions, theories, or any vested interests get in their way of doing it either.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Mr. Matt is right about a lack of capacity in our hospitals. They are at maximum all the time now......before COVID strains the system further.
> 
> The amount of work involved in treating a very sick COVID patient is astounding. You see pictures of groups of physicians, nurses, and techs all gowned up to treat one patient. All that preparation requires time and energy from limited resources.
> 
> Multiply that times say........15 patients and you get an idea of the huge problem we have in healthcare.
> 
> I don't know where all these stats about empty hospital beds are coming from.
> 
> Our hospitals have a whiteboard in the ER advising the wait times in hours and days to see a doctor or get a bed.
> 
> The healthcare system is in need of total restructuring from how doctors are paid to how much capacity we have available.


It's a bit more basic than that.
We need to grow the education pipeline, including proper funding for residency.

The problem is medical education is expensive, and the payoff is longer than any elected politicians term.
Plus these professionals are expensive.

Look at the NDP calling for in long term care homes, 4.1hrs/day of personal care.
Thats 29 hours a week, put a bit of admin and overhead and they've basically demanding a full time caregiver for each resident, and that's not COVID, just a care home.

We can't afford, as in it's physically not possible, to have 1:1 or greater care ratios.


As far as COVID, if someone on your team is positive, it takes everyone out until they get the waiting period and test clearance. That decimates the workforce. Plus may health care workers have kids... and who takes care of them when schools are closed?


----------



## OptsyEagle

Dear Santa:

We are new to this world. Came here about a year ago. We were a little worried about acceptance when we found out that some of our hosts could not tolerate us and ended up dying. We thought for sure humans would reject us but it was refreshing to find out that they didn't. On the contrary. People like us so much they are happy to invite us to their dinner parties and social events. One guy I hooked up with liked me so much he got me to go home with his girlfriend. She introduced me to her entire family. It was wonderful. We feel so welcome.

Here is our problem though. We are having a great time in the big cities like Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg and Edmonton but there is so much more of the country out there, and well, since we don't have any legs, we cannot walk to get around. Can you do anything about that.

Your friendly Virus
Covid-19.


Dear Little Covid-19

Glad to hear that you are having a wonderful time meeting all the new people. It is sad about you not having any legs and consequently cannot walk. That is a shame. Don't you worry however. I am sending you the gift of travel. We call it Christmas. You see, most of those people you are meeting in those large cities, were not actually born in those cities. No. Many were born is much smaller, further away towns, like Port Hope and Peterborough and Timmins, and Thunder Bay. So far those towns have been too far for you to reach but at Christmas time a wonderful thing tends to happen. These people go home for the holidays. So all you have to do is simply hitch a ride with them and they will take you wherever you want to go. They will help you create hot spots all over the country for your friends to gather and meet even more people. If you get the chance, stop by some of their Nursing Homes that have not had a chance to meet you yet. Someone like you could spice up what otherwise might have been a fairly dull day. So don't you worry. Enjoy the holidays. Get out there and meet all those people and have a very merry Christmas.

Santa.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> The solution is quite obvious. STOP SOCIAL GATHERINGS.


But @MrMatt says that drinking & partying is the most important thing in young people's lives and that they have a right to do whatever the hell they want


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> But @MrMatt says that drinking & partying is the most important thing in young people's lives and that they have a right to do whatever the hell they want


1. Maybe those are the most important things in their lives, as judged by them.
2. We do have a constitutional right to freedom of association.

So yes, in their minds they may be completely justified.

The question is what right do you have to force your will on them?
You're infringing on their constitutionally protected rights.

I think they're wrong, and I don't think this behaviour should be permitted.
I think social gatherings in areas of high risk should be banned.
I've also said that I think they should close the border to non-essential travel. I've said this since March.


----------



## sags

Another strain of coronavirus is circulating in the UK. I believe I heard there are 1,000 people with the new strain. 

The WHO says they are investigating but hopeful the vaccine will prevent it. It all boils down to those "spikes" in the COVID, which the vaccines address.


----------



## Money172375

Another record day for new cases in Ontario. Min. Of Education asking boards to prepare for online learning In Jan.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I wonder where Mr. S. Leccee (ON's education minister) is hiding these days?


----------



## sags

Hospitals can create more bed space. They can't create more healthcare workers.

We are reaching the maximum in Ontario, and the OHA is calling for 28 day lock down to save the hospitals from rationing care and collapse.

It was inevitable and should have been done months ago to slow down the community spread of the virus and allow time for a vaccine.

It may be too late now. The virus is firmly planted into the community now and spreading fast.

Provincial governments have failed in their main mission.......the health and safety of their citizens.


----------



## sags

My wife returned to work today for the first day since the "red zone" was declared.

The retirement home has just completed changing all the work schedules back to "normal" and employees don't know what happens now.

Nobody seems to know what "red zone" even means anymore, but people have tried to adjust their own family life around changing schedules of work.

Some have started not coming in for work and saying they couldn't line up daycare, so they work short sfaffed.

Businesses need some guidance........not bouncing around week to week from this zone and that zone. There has been no consistency at all .


----------



## Beaver101

^ The Swiss cheese model ... make up as you go.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Help me out here. I tend to look at the Ontario data mainly to be consistent and not distracted by other jurisdictions. I imagine the rest are similar in most respects.

Here is my confusion.

In the early days of the pandemic, I remember China telling us that 80% of infections tended to be mild, 20% were more severe with 5% of them going to ICU.

The Canadian data up to September tended to show the approximate same result: 16% hospitalized with about 3% of those going to the ICU. The US has about 19% hospitalization.

When I read the daily Ontario numbers, 

COVID-19 case data: All Ontario (Note: this data updates everyday)

today we had 2,316 new infections, we actually had 20 less people in the hospital then the day before. I suspect some of that came from the 25 death that day, freeing up some hospital beds, etc.

My question then is. Even though I know we have a lag between infections and hospitalizations. If we have been getting close to 2,000 infections per day, in Ontario for quite a while now. Should we not be getting 16% of 2,000 = around 320 new hospitalizations each day as well. Even if we account for a lag we should be seeing more then 250 hospitalizations. But I am not seeing this. They are no where near those levels. I am obviously missing something big but I can't seem to put my finger on it. Is the virus getting less deadly. Are our precautions really reducing the severity of the infections (by reducing the infective dose)?

Anyone have any thoughts on this discrepancy? I would imagine 300 hospitalizations per day could sink a healthcare system pretty quickly in any province.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Anyone have any thoughts on this discrepancy? I would imagine 300 hospitalizations per day could sink a healthcare system pretty quickly in any province.


It can be misleading when dealing with statistics, as in, comparing "current vs averages" as there are many factors. Just off the top of my head one would have to look at the age group being as covid has a significant difference in outcome due to that. If one week a large number of older people get infected the numbers for hospital, ICU and deaths would rise a lot. Now if the current spread is more among the younger crowd the opposite would happen, higher new cases but little effect on hospitals and such. Of course in order to support this theory one would need access to the actual new case data (by age) in near real time.


----------



## Money172375

hospitalizations are a lagging indicator......in that it can take many weeks for hospital numbers to spike after cases spike. This is why I find the tone has changed in Ontario the last week or so. They haven't seen the flattening in new cases that they expected with the lockdown measures.....and now they're freaking out about impending hospitalizations.

I recall when the lockdown was initiated in Early Dec........the goal was to allow some Holiday get togethers...obviously our trajectory will not allow that.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I think I figured it out. As I said, it is not the lag in numbers. This discrepancy has been going on for months now. I tend to look at hospitalizations instead of infections, because infections are very misleading. A mild asymptomatic infection is no where near the same thing as a severe infection.

Anyway, the discrepancy has to be "recovered and discharged". There really is no other answer. I knew it was a variable that is not normally announced and it would change the numbers for current hospitalizations but I just could not imagine that a day in Ontario, for Covid-19 would look something like this:

EVERY DAY
320 people admitted to the hospital for Covid-19
300 people discharged due to recovery from Covid-19

Net: 20 more people hospitalized in Ontario

I mean, why bother telling us about the 20 when you have so much larger numbers moving in and out. It must be what is actually happening but one would think someone would mention that. Telling your province that 320 people were admitted to the hospital makes for a more serious announcement then 20 more people are hospitalized. Maybe it is just me.


----------



## sags

I listen to the doctors and nurses and when they say the hospitals are getting full and they are short of staff........that means more to me than any data or stats.

Our hospital had 9 units infected with COVID that spread among healthcare workers to patients. Some patients contracted COVID in the hospital and died.

That tells me all I need to know about how bad it is here.


----------



## Money172375

Reports that all of Ontario will go into lockdown this week. Some regions are now in the green zone, so a big change.





__





CityNews







www.680news.com


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> Reports that all of Ontario will go into lockdown this week. Some regions are now in the green zone, so a big change.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CityNews
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.680news.com


I can understand it, but it seems inappropriate for the deeply rural parts of the north, etc.

Dougie is cancelling Christmas. We'll see what the compliance is like because this was not really telegraphed and people will be reluctant to change plans this close.


----------



## Money172375

andrewf said:


> I can understand it, but it seems inappropriate for the deeply rural parts of the north, etc.
> 
> Dougie is cancelling Christmas. We'll see what the compliance is like because this was not really telegraphed and people will be reluctant to change plans this close.


Sounds like the dividing line is Sudbury. North of that....14 day lockdown. South of that....28


----------



## Spudd

andrewf said:


> I can understand it, but it seems inappropriate for the deeply rural parts of the north, etc.
> 
> Dougie is cancelling Christmas. We'll see what the compliance is like because this was not really telegraphed and people will be reluctant to change plans this close.


He announced weeks ago that people shouldn't plan to see anyone outside their household for Christmas. 








Don't have people over for the holidays, Ontario government warns amid high COVID-19 case counts


The Ontario government is urging residents to refrain from hosting large holiday parties this year as the province continues to grapple with high COVID-19 case counts.



toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I can understand it, but it seems inappropriate for the deeply rural parts of the north, etc.
> 
> Dougie is cancelling Christmas. We'll see what the compliance is like because this was not really telegraphed and people will be reluctant to change plans this close.


I think it wasn't telegraphed because they didn't expect it to keep getting worse.
The hospitals are full cases are growing, and they're days behind in testing.


----------



## sags

Ford (and he is not alone among the Premiers) wanted to keep one foot in herd immunity and the other in lock downs.

The virus said "that's nice, but I got other plans".


----------



## andrewf

Spudd said:


> He announced weeks ago that people shouldn't plan to see anyone outside their household for Christmas.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Don't have people over for the holidays, Ontario government warns amid high COVID-19 case counts
> 
> 
> The Ontario government is urging residents to refrain from hosting large holiday parties this year as the province continues to grapple with high COVID-19 case counts.
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.ctvnews.ca


Large parties vs cancelling family get togethers are different things. I think everyone knew that office parties and gatherings with friends were not in the cards.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> ...
> 
> My question then is. Even though I know we have a lag between infections and hospitalizations. If we have been getting close to 2,000 infections per day, in Ontario for quite a while now. Should we not be getting 16% of 2,000 = around 320 new hospitalizations each day as well. Even if we account for a lag we should be seeing more then 250 hospitalizations. But I am not seeing this. They are no where near those levels. I am obviously missing something big but I can't seem to put my finger on it. *Is the virus getting less deadly.* Are our precautions really reducing the severity of the infections (by reducing the infective dose)?
> 
> *Anyone have any thoughts on this discrepancy? I would imagine 300 hospitalizations per day could sink a healthcare system pretty quickly in any province. *


 ... speaking for myself, I'm no statistician nor a modelling expert. Nor want to guess on the virus load for death. Ie. just trust the public health numbers and abide the laws/guidelines.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Ford (and he is not alone among the Premiers) wanted to keep one foot in herd immunity and the other in lock downs.
> 
> The virus said "that's nice, but I got other plans".


 .. he got a balancing act to do - not easy. Just hope he figures out what really matters or is considered a priority.


----------



## bgc_fan

Thought this was an interesting background article about some university work that was used to help develop the mRNA COVID vaccines: COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate with UT Ties Arrived Quickly After Years in the Making

All to say that development was a long process and as always, government funded universities usually shoulder the burden of the early process.


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> government funded universities usually shoulder the burden of the early process.


And then have their budgets cut by conservative governments.

I was talking with some University of Manitoba researchers a few days ago, and they were telling me how the conservative MB government (Pallister) has been cutting back their funding for research & development. Pallister's people on the board of the university try to restrict scientific R&D.

Of course the king of that was Harper & gang, who slashed scientific R&D across Canada. Probably the most harmful thing any political party has done to Canada in modern times. Harper's anti-science policies probably set Canada back by a generation, in scientific R&D power. He almost single handedly destroyed the NRC and DFO.

Without question, in the case of DFO, it was an energy/mining sector agenda to suppress environmental knowledge coming out of DFO. A great example of how the highly corrupt Conservative party (Harper, Scheer, etc) put corporate interests ahead of the best interests of Canadians.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> And then have their budgets cut by conservative governments.
> 
> I was talking with some University of Manitoba researchers a few days ago, and they were telling me how the conservative MB government (Pallister) has been cutting back their funding for research & development. Pallister's people on the board of the university try to restrict scientific R&D.
> 
> Of course the king of that was Harper & gang, who slashed scientific R&D across Canada. Probably the most harmful thing any political party has done to Canada in modern times. Harper's anti-science policies probably set Canada back by a generation, in scientific R&D power. He almost single handedly destroyed the NRC and DFO.
> 
> Without question, in the case of DFO, it was an energy/mining sector agenda to suppress environmental knowledge coming out of DFO. A great example of how the highly corrupt Conservative party (Harper, Scheer, etc) put corporate interests ahead of the best interests of Canadians.


Enough with blaming Conservatives for everything. You'll grab any opportunity to bash.
Chretien slashed health spending in his day too. Massively, and we're still feeling the effects today.


Yeah, Harper did a lot of things we can disagree with, as does every single politician, but he's not in office.
He shouldn't have cut the census for one.
However Trudeau is balancing his anti-science with the political reality. He needed to legalize pot to win the election, so he did, science be damned. It's all about trade offs.


Criticise Ford for trying to strike the balance between stopping COVID and keeping the economy alive, and trying to apply measures in a way that there will be some compliance.

Criticize Trudeau for trying to maintain necessary links, while reducing covid transmission. 

Lots of valid things to complain about, but sheesh, you're one of the most blindly partisan people on here (though admittedly I'm close, I freely disagree with many "Conservative" positions)


----------



## sags

The Conservatives have positions ? I thought all they did was gripe about Trudeau.

Today O'Toole is getting roasted for his racist comments on residential schools.


----------



## Spudd

andrewf said:


> Large parties vs cancelling family get togethers are different things. I think everyone knew that office parties and gatherings with friends were not in the cards.


When the announcement was made, I remember saying "well, I guess that means I won't be going home for Christmas". Where I would be spending it with just my immediate household and my dad. But perhaps I overreacted back then and that wasn't actually the announcement, I can't remember and it's hard to google on now with the current announcement taking over the top spots in a search. 

In any case, based on what I've seen at the grocery store lately, many, many people are still planning large holiday get-togethers, be it just family or whatever, I cannot tell. But mounding high carts filled with holiday goodies are certainly happening.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Enough with blaming Conservatives for everything. You'll grab any opportunity to bash.


The Conservatives have caused so much harm to this country that it's important we remember the impacts of their kinds of policies. One of the reasons Canada has limited R&D capabilities in medicine, including against infectious diseases, is because of how the Conservatives tore apart Canada's scientific capabilities.

On top of that we have further damage from conservative provincial governments, as they directly take $ away from university R&D programs.

I'm posting this because scientific capabilities and R&D are very long term concerns. They are easy to ignore, but a situation like what we have now are reminders of why these are important. They are key to Canada's long term strength and technology capabilities.

Hilarious that *you* of all people would say the above ('any opportunity bash'). You can't go 24 hours without turning any discussion into a political attack against the Liberals!


----------



## james4beach

Anthony Fauci, the head of the US infectious disease strategy, received the Moderna vaccine today.

Hopefully this will help convince people who are hesitant about vaccination.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> The Conservatives have caused so much harm to this country that it's important we remember the impacts of their kinds of policies. One of the reasons Canada has limited R&D capabilities in medicine, including against infectious diseases, is because of how the Conservatives tore apart Canada's scientific capabilities.
> 
> On top of that we have further damage from conservative provincial governments, as they directly take $ away from university R&D programs.
> 
> I'm posting this because scientific capabilities and R&D are very long term concerns. They are easy to ignore, but a situation like what we have now are reminders of why these are important. They are key to Canada's long term strength and technology capabilities.
> 
> Hilarious that *you* of all people would say the above ('any opportunity bash'). You can't go 24 hours without turning any discussion into a political attack against the Liberals!


I do think it's relevant to criticize the actions of specific people, or a particular administration
You're making broad "Conservatives bad" claims. Impossible to discuss, because you didn't actually make a specific claim.

As far as cuts, I think the Chretien cuts were some of the most Dramatic in Canadian history. The ripple effects were tremendous.
I'm glad he did it, we were in dire straits. 

Now team Trudeau is spending us into even bigger problems. Replacing Trudeau/Freeland (and Butts) with someone competent (Liberal or CPC) can't come soon enough.


----------



## sags

One person is dying from COVID every 10 minutes in LA County, California.

Tens of millions of Americans traveled for Christmas for family gatherings, so as Biden said........the worst is yet to come.

_"A person now dies every 10 minutes in L.A. County from COVID-19," Los Angeles County Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer said in a statement, "and since many of these deaths are preventable our collective focus should be on doing right to save lives."

According to the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health's Thursday news release, there are about 6,500 people hospitalized with Covid-19 in the county, 20% of whom are in intensive care units -- a pandemic high. In the last week alone, the department said, the number of Covid-19 patients in hospitals has increased by more than 1,600._










One person is dying from Covid-19 every 10 minutes in Los Angeles County


Los Angeles County public health officials reported 148 new Covid-19 deaths on Thursday, the second day in a row that the county reported its highest number of new deaths.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Beaver101

^ Be careful of posting such news 'cause they will be viewed as an act of fear mongering here (or a reference that you're too sensitive) by some people.


----------



## sags

The strange part is that even while this is happening live in LA County, there are still people in the media who are saying that individual States spent too much on PPE, ventilators, equipment or imposed lock downs and restrictions for no scientific reasons that have had more disasterous affects for people than not imposing them.

The level of cognitive dissonance in the world today is challenging, to say the least.


----------



## Money172375

From CBC News

2 U.K. variant coronavirus cases have been identified in Ontario. Province says couple from Durham have no known travel history. Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario's Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health, says development 'reinforces the need' for Ontarians to stay home if possible.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-confirms-first-cases-covid19-uk-variant-1.5855361


----------



## Beaver101

^ Just a matter of time and we haven't even had a chance to catch our breath. Geesh.


----------



## bgc_fan

So... if you are in a high risk group, and you want to jump the vaccine queue, go to Arizona or Florida.








Snowbirds in U.S. in line to receive COVID-19 vaccine before most Canadians


Scores of snowbirds who make the annual trip down to U.S. stand to be eligible to receive either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine well before some Canadians.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## sags

The 14 day quarantine when they return should be mandatory and guarded to ensure they are compliant.

A vaccine certificate should not be accepted in lieu of the quarantine.

Vaccinations protect them from serious illness from COVID, but they can still catch it and spread it.

Vaccines are not blanket immunity.


----------



## sags

Ontario's Doug Ford will have to answer to the public for this appalling situation.

Passing legislation that removes all liability from the LTC home owners revealed who he represents.

_Tendercare Living Centre in Toronto's east end said as of Saturday, 116 residents and 77 staff members have tested positive for COVID-19. The care home also reported 13 additional deaths, bringing the total to 39. _



https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1837602371573


----------



## Beaver101

^ A whole can of worms.


----------



## Money172375

I’m thinking this will be the next news cycle.......the slow rollout of vaccines in Canada....particularly in Ontario. I believe Ontario’s numbers are low because we’re saving half the doses for the 2nd shot......while most other jurisdictions are giving the first shot to everyone they can, in the hopes they have the supplies for the 2nd. The US has already given out 2 million doses.


----------



## Money172375

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/vaccine-canada-second-dose-1.5854670


----------



## sags

So Ontario shut down vaccine centres because of the Christmas holidays ? Seriously ?

They should be open 24 hours a day.......7 days a week until they run out of vaccine.

I don't know who exactly is in charge in Ontario, but they are really screwing everything up.

From LTC homes to shutdowns to closures.......they can't get anything right.


----------



## Beaver101

According to this article, It has been claimed the OHA requested a slowdown of vaccinations over the holidays.

Critics slam Ford government over holiday vaccination slowdown

However, a family doctor in Brighton, ON, sees otherwise.

Anyhow, ON's Health Minister has some explaining to do, if not, then the OHA's head.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> So Ontario shut down vaccine centres because of the Christmas holidays ? Seriously ?
> 
> They should be open 24 hours a day.......7 days a week until they run out of vaccine.
> 
> I don't know who exactly is in charge in Ontario, but they are really screwing everything up.
> 
> From LTC homes to shutdowns to closures.......they can't get anything right.


Doug Ford, and you know he's doing a good job, while others are using up 100% of the supply of the vaccine on a single dose, and hoping the second dose shows up, he's making sure that the proper approved vaccination procedure is followed.

Think about it, hundreds of thousands of doses, weeks of production was immediately available upon approval. That's because they stockpiled it.

Some jurisdictions are going to have second round shortages, we know without the second dose, the vaccine is much less effective.
We also don't know how precise the timing has to be to be highly effective.


Even that vaccine tracker is misleading, not a single person in Canada is properly vaccinated against COVID19 (except for trials) because the vaccine hasn't been approved long enough to properly vaccinate people.


Remember back in February when Trudeau shipped our PPE to China, hoping we'd get some back in time? How did that work out?

The Ontario government isn't taking these chances, they're following a clear, science based plan and are properly administering the vaccine.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I stopped reading further when I saw this "_Think about it, hundreds of thousands of doses, weeks of production was immediately available upon approval. That's because they stockpiled it." ... _where did you read the "hundreds of thousands of doses" we (ON) got, thus far with the Pfizer one? 

From what I had read, we're not getting the Moderna's version until the end of December which is some 3 full days away.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ I stopped reading further when I saw this "_Think about it, hundreds of thousands of doses, weeks of production was immediately available upon approval. That's because they stockpiled it." ... _where did you read the "hundreds of thousands of doses" we (ON) got, thus far with the Pfizer one?
> 
> From what I had read, we're not getting the Moderna's version until the end of December which is some 3 full days away.


I don't know why I'm responding, since you stopped reading both my post and information the vaccines.


Specifically to Moderna, they approved it on the 23rd and a portion of the 168k was in Canada by the 24th, with more to come by first end.
It's been here for 5 days, and you don't think it will show up for another 3 days? Maybe if you don't even know the vaccine is approved, in country and being administered, you're likely equally uninformed on other details.
*Shipment of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine arrives in Canada one day after approval


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/moderna-vaccine-arrives-canada-1.5854649


*

Another vaccine.
"Upon approval, we then release the vaccine and then it is shipped. We've already produced the vaccine and reserved doses for Canada," Marett said on _Rosemary Barton Live_.


My point remains, they've already produced it in advance anticipating that it will be approved. They want those headlines of huge initial orders.
The pharmaceutical companies admit this.


----------



## sags

Thanks for link Beaver101........it explains it pretty well.

90,000 Pfizer vaccines available and 13,000 vaccinations.........then they shut down for the holidays.

It appears the Ford government made the decision to close the clinics without consulting with the OMA, hospitals or doctors and nurses.

Even if they wanted to conserve the "second shot" of vaccine, they could have vaccinated another 32,000 people.

The roll out of the vaccines is a total screw up in Ontario.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Thanks for link Beaver101........it explains it pretty well.
> 
> 90,000 Pfizer vaccines available and 13,000 vaccinations.........then they shut down for the holidays.
> 
> It appears the Ford government made the decision to close the clinics without consulting with the OMA, hospitals or doctors and nurses.
> 
> Even if they wanted to conserve the "second shot" of vaccine, they could have vaccinated another 32,000 people.
> 
> The roll out of the vaccines is a total screw up in Ontario.


Except the hospitals made the request.

From Beavers article.
“As a result, over the holidays hospital sites administering the vaccines requested to operate on slightly amended schedules, recognizing the challenges that the holidays can have on staffing levels in hospitals and long-term care homes.” 


I'll ask for you to back up your claim that they weren't asked, but I'm sure you won't, because you rarely back up your claims.


----------



## sags

You are quoting the Ford government, who are trying to cover their butts and blaming others for another bad decision

_The Ontario Hospital Association did not respond to requests for clarification about whether any hospitals had in fact requested a slow-down of vaccinations over the holidays. _

Which hospitals said they couldn't handle the vaccine clinics ?

Doctors, nurses, paramedics, were ready to volunteer. They WANT people to get vaccinated ASAP so they don't have to deal with more COVID patients.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> You are quoting the Ford government, who are trying to cover their butts and blaming others for another bad decision
> 
> _The Ontario Hospital Association did not respond to requests for clarification about whether any hospitals had in fact requested a slow-down of vaccinations over the holidays. _
> 
> Which hospitals said they couldn't handle the vaccine clinics ?
> 
> Doctors, nurses, paramedics, were ready to volunteer. They WANT people to get vaccinated ASAP so they don't have to deal with more COVID patients.


Yes, I'm quoting an on the record source.
You're making stuff up.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I don't know why I'm responding, since you stopped reading both my post and information the vaccines.


 ... neither do I know why you're responding but then you responded so I'm responding back.



> Specifically to Moderna, they approved it on the 23rd and a portion of the 168k was in Canada by the 24th, with more to come by first end.
> It's been here for 5 days, and you don't think it will show up for another 3 days? Maybe if you don't even know the vaccine is approved, in country and being administered, you're likely equally uninformed on other details.
> *Shipment of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine arrives in Canada one day after approval
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/moderna-vaccine-arrives-canada-1.5854649
> 
> 
> *
> 
> Another vaccine.
> "Upon approval, we then release the vaccine and then it is shipped. We've already produced the vaccine and reserved doses for Canada," Marett said on _Rosemary Barton Live_.
> 
> 
> My point remains, they've already produced it in advance anticipating that it will be approved. They want those headlines of huge initial orders.
> The pharmaceutical companies admit this.


 ... with the above new post, since you have now made it clearer to your initial comment which is now partially correct: _



Think about it, hundreds of thousands of doses, weeks of production was immediately available upon approval. That's because they stockpiled it."

Click to expand...

_So let me re-phrase my response in post #3616 ... what is the point of warehousing those hundreds of thousands of doses over the Xmas holidays of which the criticism was aimed at? 

As I type this, it appears on CP24 news that General Hillier is offering "his" explanation(aka his responsibility) for the delay/hold up in a video which I haven't listened yet.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Yes, I'm quoting an on the record source.
> You're making stuff up.


 .. don't think sags is with the quote (from yesterday CP24 news link) in his post. No hospitals said anything and neither did the OHAssociation.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> .. don't think sags is with the quote (from yesterday CP24 news link) in his post. No hospitals said anything and neither did the OHAssociation.


That's my point

So we have a government official stating what happened.

No official is disputing what they claim.

Sags is spreading ant-government fake news about COVID, because they simply doesn't like Ford.
If the COVID19 disinformation wasn't anti-conservative they'd be banned.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> That's my point
> 
> So we have a government official stating what happened.
> 
> No official is disputing what they claim.


 ... of course, no official is going to dispute what they claim. However, I do see a headline blip that General Hillier admitted responsibility for the "vaccination slowdown" and offered an "explanation". Let's hope he doesn't have to repeat another explanation given new year is just days away.



> Sags is spreading ant-government fake news about COVID, because they simply doesn't like Ford.
> If the COVID19 disinformation wasn't anti-conservative they'd be banned.


 ... maybe you do the same by stop bashing the Libs or pulling in politics in every of your post and he'll stop too. 

And stop accusing sags of "spreading anti-government fake news about Covid" because that's blatantly false. As for your other points, I'm sure you loudly voice your likes and dislikes as well.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> So Ontario shut down vaccine centres because of the Christmas holidays ? Seriously ?
> 
> They should be open 24 hours a day.......7 days a week until they run out of vaccine.
> 
> I don't know who exactly is in charge in Ontario, but they are really screwing everything up.
> 
> From LTC homes to shutdowns to closures.......they can't get anything right.


This is a marathon, not a race.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> You are quoting the Ford government, who are trying to cover their butts and blaming others for another bad decision


I'm quoting the official on the record response.



> Which hospitals said they couldn't handle the vaccine clinics ?


I didn't claim make that claim. I don't believe any hospital said they couldn't handle them.

I do believe that they might have wanted to ensure that they are operating in a sustainable manner.

It is a decision you disagree with. Not necessarily a bad decision.


----------



## Money172375

From what I know, Hillier is an excellent choice for this. He did some work for TD years ago so I heard some stories. He’s militant but gets things done. He admitted the error over the holiday slowdown. 
We all will look for scapegoats in much of how the pandemic is/was handleded.....from LTC, to borders, to vaccines. In my opinion, success will come much faster if we all did our part with social distancing and staying home unless required. It’s very easy to make “exceptions” for holiday gatherings, non-essential shopping etc.........we just want someone else to blame when things go badly.


----------



## sags

General Hillier has accepted responsibility and apologized for the delays in vaccinations.

Ontario will now use all the vaccine they have to start vaccinating people. They aren't holding back 2nd shots anymore.

_This is a marathon, not a race. _

That is good, because it was calculated to take 40 years to vaccinate everyone at the current rate of vaccinations.


----------



## Money172375

Positivity rate hit 9.7% in Ontario. Yowzers!


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> From what I know, Hillier is an excellent choice for this. He did some work for TD years ago so I heard some stories. *He’s militant but gets things done. *He admitted the error over the holiday slowdown.
> We all will look for scapegoats in much of how the pandemic is/was handleded.....from LTC, to borders, to vaccines. In my opinion, success will come much faster if we all did our part with social distancing and staying home unless required. It’s very easy to make “exceptions” for holiday gatherings, non-essential shopping etc.........we just want someone else to blame when things go badly.


 ... I can't question his job as a general in the military but is he fit for the part role in handling the pandemic, considering this latest news:

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/randy-hillier-resignation-lockdown-162156140.html

_



Independent MPP Randy Hillier is facing fresh criticism for appearing to ignore COVID-19 public health guidelines and hosting a holiday gathering — then bragging about it on social media.

It’s not the first time Hillier has spoken out against lockdown guidelines, but the politician representing Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington has taken it to a more brazen level. *On Dec. 27, Hillier posted a photo of himself, along with 13 other adults and one child sitting around a dining table for what appears to be a Christmas dinner.*

“The lies and deceptions of covid are over. How & why so many allowed themselves to be deceived will take years to to uncover, but I and many other Canadians will not accept the deception any longer. We are free and will defend our freedom,” wrote Hillier in a subsequent tweet. ...

Click to expand...

 ... _this is beyond hypocrisy, never mind the "example" being set for the rest of the province. Will be interesting to see what boss Ford says, if heads don't roll.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Money172375 said:


> Positivity rate hit 9.7% in Ontario. Yowzers!


Be careful reading too much into that positivity rate. If you look at the positive rate for Ontario and then look right above it at the "Tests Completed" you will start to see a relationship. On the days Ontario does the fewest number of tests, they have the highest positivity rate. The days they do the most tests, they have the lowest positivity rate.






Datasets - Ontario Data Catalogue







covid-19.ontario.ca





What this means is that the testers have figured out which tests have the highest probability of showing positive. Most likely these would be the stat tests ordered by the hospitals on patients who perhaps were just admitted to the ICU and also people who perhaps are showing symptoms, as opposed to asymptomatic.

Obviously we want to know "who is positive" as soon as possible, so on the days Ontario figures they will fall behind on testing (Christmas holidays for example) they do the "most probable to be positive" tests first. This drives up the positivity rate. So it is more a function of testing then what is actually happening in the society being tested.

I mentioned a long time ago that positivity rate is not something we should respond to. It is meaningless in a world where testing is not random nor the people being tested are at the same risk level of having the virus, before the test is done.

(Warning: The above is simply something a guy on the internet noticed on the Ontario website, quite a while ago. This has not been substantiated by any expert group or double blind study. He is just stating his opinion that this illustrates why Positivity Rate is a fairly meaningless number. End of warning. lol)


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> ... I can't question his job as a general in the military but is he fit for the part role in handling the pandemic, considering this latest news:
> 
> https://ca.yahoo.com/news/randy-hillier-resignation-lockdown-162156140.html
> 
> _ ... _this is beyond hypocrisy, never mind the "example" being set for the rest of the province. Will be interesting to see what boss Ford says, if heads don't roll.


You’re referencing Randy Hillier, the loony MPP. I’m referencing General Rick Hillier.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> You’re referencing Randy Hillier, the loony MPP. I’m referencing General Rick Hillier.


 ... you're right ... my sincere apologies! [By chance, are they related?] 

Anyhow, still interested to hear Ford's comment, if any. He already gave Sam OOsterhoff a free pass.


----------



## james4beach

I'm still concerned about how open our border is.

I was talking with a friend today, an American citizen who is a student at a Canadian university. She flew to the US midwest for Christmas (a state with a huge number of cases). Now she's flying back into BC.

I didn't know foreign students could enter Canada during COVID! But they can. In fact, some foreign students don't even have to do the 14 day quarantine! Government site describes this.

So we've got Canadian snowbirds flying to the US, and re-entering Canada. We also have foreign students visiting family in the US and Europe [hot-spots] during Christmas, and flying back into Canada. Some are actually exempted from quarantine (for example BC) and for others, the quarantine is "on your honour"

We've got to put end to this international travel. This is ridiculous.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I think you should finalize your draft to your MPP re this "border" closure of ours.


----------



## james4beach

I think we should all brace for a huge surge in cases in the next ~ 3 weeks.

Domestic holidays, plus foreign travellers, returning students, snowbirds, and many people coming from the US .... this could get nuts.


----------



## sags

To quote one doctor......a surge on a surge on a surge that could be a catastrophe in late January.


----------



## sags

The Ontario Minister of Finance left the country in early December to spend holidays with family and has been using his social media accounts to convey the impression that he is hard at work as Finance Minister for Ontario and as an MPP for his riding.









Ontario's finance minister apologizes after leaving country for personal trip earlier this month


Finance Minister Rod Phillips has apologized Tuesday evening for leaving the country earlier this month for a personal trip even as health officials plead with Ontarians to only venture outside of their homes for essential purposes.



toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ I think you should finalize your draft to your MPP re this "border" closure of ours.


MPPs do not have the authority to close the international border.

This is a federal responsibility.

Recent news is there are multiple cases of the UK strain, in Canada, due to the failure of Trudeau to close the borders.

Also regarding some goofball going on vacation... yeah, because the other goofball didn't close the borders, like he said he would how many months ago?
To be honest, lying and violating health recommendations, the PM set the example, the rest are just following his lead.


----------



## sags

Doug Ford is "extremely upset" at his Finance Minister, who apparently he didn't know had left the country on December 13th.

(evidently keeping track of his top cabinet members is like herding cats)

Ford must have thought the European background on the guy's Zoom calls were fake. No Doug.....that is THE Eiffel Tower behind me......


----------



## bgc_fan

Here's an unfortunate case in the States. Home haircut ends up killing an elderly couple: They did everything right. But after one at-home haircut, a husband and wife died of Covid-19


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> Here's an unfortunate case in the States. Home haircut ends up killing an elderly couple: They did everything right. But after one at-home haircut, a husband and wife died of Covid-19


That's very sad.

Also in the US, newly elected congressman Luke Letlow died at age 41. Note ... he was 41, this isn't an old man. He is now the second newly elected Republican who died of COVID. Previously, David Andahl of North Dakota died.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> MPPs do not have the authority to close the international border.
> 
> This is a federal responsibility.
> 
> Recent news is there are multiple cases of the UK strain, in Canada, due to the failure of Trudeau to close the borders.
> 
> *Also regarding some goofball going on vacation... yeah, because the other goofball didn't close the borders, like he said he would how many months ago?
> To be honest, lying and violating health recommendations, the PM set the example, the rest are just following his lead.*


 ... that's what all politicians do best, "lie and more lies", ain't it?


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> Here's an unfortunate case in the States. Home haircut ends up killing an elderly couple: They did everything right. But after one at-home haircut, a husband and wife died of Covid-19


 ... what? A home haircut kills an elderly couple? A very unfortunate case with a quick change of events.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> That's very sad.
> 
> Also in the US, newly elected congressman Luke Letlow died at age 41. *Note ... he was 41, this isn't an old man.* He is now the second newly elected Republican who died of COVID. Previously, David Andahl of North Dakota died.


 ... maybe the Ukrainiandude member can take a read on here plus bgc's post #3642.

Add: He is not the only 41 year old and younger person to die of Covid ... there're plenty of those young folks whose names haven't made it to the news.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... that's what all politicians do best, "lie and more lies", ain't it?


If there is little cost to lying, why not?

My favourite example is Dalton McGuinty, (former Premier of Ontario) he put out an excellent platform, then systematically broke almost every promise and didn't follow it at all.
Yet he was re-elected to a majority government.

Maybe I was spoiled by Mike Harris who kept his promises (good and bad)
I honestly thought McGuinty would keep at least some of his major campaign promises, like not hiking taxes and cutting health care, and literally within months of taking office added the "Health care premium" and started delisting services (eye exams for example).

Politics has become incredibly tribal, and people dispute basic provable facts.

Right at the beginning of the pandemic, Trudeau claimed he was following all health guidance, as he drive through 3 different health units (with travel advisories) and crossed back and forth between Quebec and Ontario. What do people do, they praise his "excellent" handling of the crisis. Sure as he lies to us.
He's been saying the borders are closed, as people jet around the world on vacation.

Of course they'll lie, it generally doesn't hurt them that bad.

To be fair it's not only Liberals who lie, Harper said he'd never tax income trusts. Which he did.
Honestly I'm a bit surprised he'd make that promise, it was a dumb promise that upon inspection was bad policy.
Just like Trudeau promised electoral reform, until he realized any changes would reduce his power. Again a dumb promise he should have never made, it's bad policy for the Liberal party.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> If there is little cost to lying, why not?
> 
> My favourite example is Dalton McGuinty, (former Premier of Ontario) he put out an excellent platform, then systematically broke almost every promise and didn't follow it at all.
> Yet he was re-elected to a majority government.
> 
> Maybe I was spoiled by Mike Harris who kept his promises (good and bad)
> I honestly thought McGuinty would keep at least some of his major campaign promises, like not hiking taxes and cutting health care, and literally within months of taking office added the "Health care premium" and started delisting services (eye exams for example).
> 
> Politics has become incredibly tribal, and people dispute basic provable facts.
> 
> Right at the beginning of the pandemic, Trudeau claimed he was following all health guidance, as he drive through 3 different health units (with travel advisories) and crossed back and forth between Quebec and Ontario. What do people do, they praise his "excellent" handling of the crisis. Sure as he lies to us.
> He's been saying the borders are closed, as people jet around the world on vacation.
> 
> Of course they'll lie, it generally doesn't hurt them that bad.
> 
> To be fair it's not only Liberals who lie, Harper said he'd never tax income trusts. Which he did.
> Honestly I'm a bit surprised he'd make that promise, it was a dumb promise that upon inspection was bad policy.
> Just like Trudeau promised electoral reform, until he realized any changes would reduce his power. Again a dumb promise he should have never made, it's bad policy for the Liberal party.


 ... there you go ... opening a whole can of political worms under a Covid19 thread? I digress.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... what? A home haircut kills an elderly couple? A very unfortunate case with a quick change of events.


Yup. Daughter works in a salon, tested negative for COVID and went to cut her brother's hair at his apartment. Their mother was present, and they took some precautions (masks, some physical distancing with the mother near an open window). Daughter later tests positive, and the son and mother had symptoms. The father caught it from the mother and they both died within 10 days of each other.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Yup. Daughter works in a salon, tested negative for COVID and went to cut her brother's hair at his apartment. Their mother was present, and they took some precautions (masks, some physical distancing with the mother near an open window). Daughter later tests positive, and the son and mother had symptoms. The father caught it from the mother and they both died within 10 days of each other.


Pretty much tells you how good "some precautions" are. I like the one where people will say "I wore a mask 90% of the time". When you sleep, would you keep your front door closed only 90% of the time?

Anyway, obviously their precautions failed. I suspect they failed the precautions, not the precautions failing them. I imagine the one about not getting together indoors would have done wonders for their survivability. Oh well. At least the son got a haircut.


----------



## Money172375

Almost 3000 cases today in Ont. hotspots have been locked down for almost a month already. Full province lockdown began 4 days ago.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Now the "modelling" experts are gonna say "we told you so".


----------



## OptsyEagle

Money172375 said:


> Almost 3000 cases today in Ont. hotspots have been locked down for almost a month already. Full province lockdown began 4 days ago.


Very little from this lockdown will help. At best, the new measures would be a reminder to those who flaunt the rules, but as we know those reminders do not work for them. I mentioned before. Any lockdown rule that does not directly relate to stopping:

1) Social gatherings indoors
2) Unprotected driving during work or leisure
3) Unprotected indoor workplaces

will be as effective as throwing a glass of water on a forest fire.


----------



## sags

The freshman Congressman who died from COVID was a Trump supporter and often didn't wear a mask or social distance.

He advocated for keeping everything open. I suppose at the age of 41 and healthy, he thought it was no big deal.

Apparently, he died of a heart attack following a procedure for COVID.









Republican Louisiana Congressman-elect Luke Letlow dies from COVID-19


Luke Letlow, 41, Lousiana's incoming Republican incoming member of the U.S. House died from a heart attack following a procedure related to COVID-19 on Tuesday night.




www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Doug Ford is "extremely upset" at his Finance Minister, who apparently he didn't know had left the country on December 13th.
> 
> (evidently keeping track of his top cabinet members is like herding cats)
> 
> Ford must have thought the European background on the guy's Zoom calls were fake. No Doug.....that is THE Eiffel Tower behind me......


 ... here's an update to this fiasco for Ford:

Ford admits he knew of finance minister’s holiday vacation two weeks ago, regrets not asking him to return

I hope that is the LAST (very) tough conversation he is going to have with his caucus members and stand by his words of:



> _"It’s unacceptable and we’re going to have a very tough conversation when he gets back,” Ford said. “*But I can tell you there can’t be rules for elected people and non-elected people*.”_


Otherwise, he's going to kiss his next term good-bye. The public can only tolerate so much ... and the 3rd strike is an out.


----------



## Beaver101

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/dr-drew-covid19-apologizing-coronavirus-170048722.html

What kind of (medical) "doctor" is this other than trying to be celebrity-quack one? Thank god, only in America (south of us).


----------



## Money172375

Mary Ann from Gilligans Island succumbs to covid.


----------



## Money172375

Global News reporting that all people flying into Canada will need a recent negative covid test to enter. No specifics on timing or how it may all work.









Canada to require all arriving air passengers to show negative COVID-19 test - National | Globalnews.ca


The newly tightened COVID-19 measures are expected to be implemented 'quickly,' Public Safety Minister Bill Blair said.




globalnews.ca


----------



## sags

What happens if a Canadians contracts COVID in the US and wants to return home for treatment ?

The cost of COVID treatment in the US is very expensive if it requires a long stay in the ICU.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> What happens if a Canadians contracts COVID in the US and wants to return home for treatment ? The cost of COVID treatment in the US is very expensive.


I suppose they could drive across. This Whole time, the airlines should be screening for symptoms, but I’m sure they rarely reject boarding.


----------



## Money172375

Tests cost approx $149 US in Florida.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> Tests cost approx $149 US in Florida.


I guess it's a sign that I spent too long in the US, but my first reaction to that was: that's pretty cheap.

A standard doctor visit in the US is around $200 to $300


----------



## sags

So you pay for a test and it comes back positive.......then what ? Stay in the US and hope you don't end up going bankrupt in a hospital there ?

I have read news stories of people getting hospital bills of over a million dollars due to a long ICU stay.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> So you pay for a test and it comes back positive.......then what ? Stay in the US and hope you don't end up going bankrupt in a hospital there ?
> 
> I have read news stories of people getting hospital bills of over a million dollars due to a long ICU stay.


My family is down there now for a few weeks. Will keep you posted. they’re keeping a low profile. As the news of politicians travelling during lockdown grows, I’m hoping my family realizes how foolish their decision was. I KNOW they would be mortified if their friends and co-workers found out.


----------



## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> I suppose they could drive across. This Whole time, the airlines should be screening for symptoms, but I’m sure they rarely reject boarding.


People have already admitted to taking drugs to mask their symptoms in order to fly home. Unless it's obvious or there is a test ratting them out, I'm not sure how much the airlines can do, even if they want to.

Cheers


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> My family is down there now for a few weeks. Will keep you posted. they’re keeping a low profile. As the news of politicians travelling during lockdown grows, I’m hoping my family realizes how foolish their decision was. I KNOW they would be mortified if their friends and co-workers found out.


I remember thinking my coworker was nuts for going to Florida during March break last year. They were there for the weekend until Trudeau told Canadians to return home. I remember asking before they left if they were still going (maybe a bit too incredulously).


----------



## Beaver101

Obviously, the enforcements ... at the airports ... at the border ... are far too lax. And then you have ignorant jerks like these, spreaded all over the country:

Vancouver party host spends Christmas in jail after repeated fines for violating COVID-19 public health orders

If education, fines and jail terms aren't enough, I say publish their names for everyone to see and take note ... to "avoid" and possibly dismissed (from employment).


----------



## sags

Florida is apparently wide open and busy with tourists.

By comparison, I watched a Youtube video of Venice Beach, California.

Stores are mostly closed and there are only a few people wandering around due to the heavy rain.

What struck me most was the garbage piles from the homeless. It is all over the place.


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> ... here's an update to this fiasco for Ford:
> 
> Ford admits he knew of finance minister’s holiday vacation two weeks ago, regrets not asking him to return
> 
> I hope that is the LAST (very) tough conversation he is going to have with his caucus members and stand by his words of:
> 
> Otherwise, he's going to kiss his next term good-bye. The public can only tolerate so much ... and the 3rd strike is an out.


 ... surprised? nope.

Phillips resigns as finance minister after apologizing for secret pandemic vacation in St. Barts

Well, at least he still gets to represent Ajax.


----------



## james4beach

Secret vacation to St Barts. Unbelievable! Good riddance.

I'll share with you all an example of what kinds of things flow across the Canadian border.

I have some American friends who are now university students in Canada. Before Christmas, they drove down to the US. Once in the US, they started flying all over the place. One person I know went into the midwest and spent the entire holiday there (very very high infection rates). Visiting family, socializing.

Then they flew back near a border city. At this point these people are an extremely high COVID risk. Like, off-the-charts risk!

Tomorrow, they are driving back into Canada. Because they are foreign students, they are allowed to enter Canada. And since they are driving, they don't have to do any COVID tests (which are for air travellers).

Now these people return to their Canadian community. Will they obey the 14 day quarantine? I've been texting these friends and encouraging them to quarantine and also offered to take them supplies to help them out. Hell, I will happily buy and drop food off for them... I don't want them wandering around in the community.


----------



## Money172375

There are supposed to be enhanced follow-ups and surveillance in addition to the new covid test requirement. Have at it.....the stricter the better. I’m so pissed at the people travelling.....including members of my family. Entitled much?!


----------



## Money172375

More details on testing for arrivals....



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/garneau-negative-test-airline-1.5858379


----------



## Synergy

sags said:


> Florida is apparently wide open and busy with tourists.
> 
> By comparison, I watched a Youtube video of Venice Beach, California.
> 
> Stores are mostly closed and there are only a few people wandering around due to the heavy rain.
> 
> What struck me most was the garbage piles from the homeless. It is all over the place.


This started well before COVID


----------



## Beaver101

^ Re posts #3670 & 3671 ... all I am going to say is "some people likes to play Russian roulette" as we all know about the selfish part.


----------



## Beaver101

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo...er-took-hawaii-vacation-sources-say-1.5859031

Another governmental Covidiot, only this time in Alberta.


----------



## james4beach

I plan to stay far away from everyone (even more than usual) for the first couple weeks of January. People have been mixing and traveling a lot and I think there are far more infected people walking around right now than there were before Christmas.


----------



## james4beach

Something that's really sad about the whole COVID thing is that there was a brief time window when the world had the opportunity to completely eradicate (wipe out) this disease entirely. I don't know how long that window was, but it would have required extremely hard shut-down measures.

That ship has sailed though. It's just sad that we all (around the world but particularly China) weren't able to react fast and hard enough to completely wipe it out.


----------



## Money172375

I just saw a story that a lot of people in Wuhan didn’t even know it originated there.


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> I just saw a story that a lot of people in Wuhan didn’t even know it originated there.


That sounds quite astonishing, even for the great firewall of China.


----------



## james4beach

My cousin is a doctor in Europe. She (and her husband) caught COVID, and many of her colleagues also caught it. But what surprised me is: she claims that a couple of her coworkers have had COVID more than once. It must be hard to differentiate from a lingering case though.

Among my group of friends, at this point I know (directly + second hand) of 13 people who had COVID. All of these 13 cases are ages 20 - 40. A breakdown:

1 person died, late 30s. He had alcoholism problems
1 in hospital with severe case (pneumonia, a week in hospital), age 35, very healthy man
11 had medium to severe flu experiences, many have lingering coughs
I'm in this age group and though the stats are encouraging, I still don't want to end up in hospital. That would be unpleasant.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> My cousin is a doctor in Europe. She (and her husband) caught COVID, and many of her colleagues also caught it. But what surprised me is: she claims that a couple of her coworkers have had COVID more than once. It must be hard to differentiate from a lingering case though.
> 
> Among my group of friends, at this point I know (directly + second hand) of 13 people who had COVID. All of these 13 cases are ages 20 - 40. A breakdown:
> 
> 1 person died, late 30s. He had alcoholism problems
> 1 in hospital with severe case (pneumonia, a week in hospital), age 35, very healthy man
> 11 had medium to severe flu experiences, many have lingering coughs
> I'm in this age group and though the stats are encouraging, I still don't want to end up in hospital. That would be unpleasant.


I can't comment directly about your cousin's co-workers, but perhaps I can shed a little light on this subject.

Immunity after infection is a lot light immunity after vaccination, since both produce some form of immune response. We know that because if they did not those who have been infected would all be dead. It is their immune response that saved them. Not much else. So immunity has has to be there, in some level, for some amount of time.

Having a stronger immune response cannot prevent a person from obtaining more virus (infection). If you breath in active virus from an infected source it is now in you. The only difference between a person who has never had C-19 or a vaccination compared to a person who has, is the person who has had the virus or vaccination before will be able to neutralize the virus much quicker then the one whose body has never seen this virus before.

If you keep testing people very frequently, especially people who have no symptoms you are going to find these reinfections. They should be expected not surprising. They don't mean much to most of us. The time it should take to get rid of the virus, for someone who has had it before or has been vaccinated, will be very short, but not instantaneous. Obviously for a healthcare worker, who again tests positive, they should stay at home until the negative test comes about. It should not take long.


----------



## sags

Too many children have died from COVID to conclude that children don't suffer from it. They do catch it. They do suffer severe symptoms. They do die from it.

Not all..........not the majority.......but some.

Those are the facts.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Obviously for a healthcare worker, who again tests positive, they should stay at home until the negative test comes about. It should not take long.


I don't believe anyone waits for a negative PCR test to return to work, they normally just go by a time table.


----------



## sags

My wife's employer requires an employee provide a negative test before they return to work for any illness related absence.

I think all LTA and retirement homes are the same.

Unfortunately it is being abused by some people who want time off. They call in sick and are told to get a test and wait for results.

They get a test and wait a couple of days for a test result, so they get a minimum of 3 days off without any questions being asked.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> My wife's employer requires an employee provide a negative test before they return to work for any illness related absence.


That's interesting as they say PCR tests can show positive for 12 weeks after the initial infection. This doesn't mean you are infectious for 12 weeks BTW.


----------



## sags

True.......but they want a negative test or the employee doesn't get back into the building.

They are also doing their own testing. My wife is scheduled for Tuesday, even though she had the vaccination last week.

They also do temperature checks every day on all employees, residents, and authorized visitors.

Their home has not had a single case of COVID.......so they are doing the right things.


----------



## Retired Peasant

In the US, large-numbers-of-health-care-and-frontline-workers-are-refusing-covid-19-vaccine


----------



## james4beach

Retired Peasant said:


> In the US, large-numbers-of-health-care-and-frontline-workers-are-refusing-covid-19-vaccine


Yeah, they probably have the same concerns I have, which is that this is an entirely new (and unproven) technology that has never made it through large scale human trials. I posted my concerns in the mRNA vaccine thread. The mRNA technology has been used experimentally for a couple years, but has only ever gone into a few hundred humans before this year.

So it's a brand new thing. Now suddenly we're trying to inject it into hundreds of millions of people. I completely understand the hesitation to become a guinea pig.

The regulators need to explain to the public how the approval process was relaxed and sped up. In what ways were clinical trials different than other drugs that get approval? I'll bet many people will be more comfortable getting the vaccine if we understand what compromises were made at the regulatory level.

Instead, I just hear policy people (not scientists) telling me "it's safe" and that "I need to shut up and get it". That's not the information I need. I really want to know how the clinical trial and approval process is different, versus say the annual flu shot.

We know they fast-tracked it ... so I want it spelled out, what was done to achieve this fast-tracking?

Just to be clear though: I *would* take the Pfizer shot.


----------



## Eclectic12

cainvest said:


> I don't believe anyone waits for a negative PCR test to return to work, they normally just go by a time table.


My friend who works in a LTC talks about her positive co-workers having to provide two negative covid tests to return to work so YMMV.

Some get two negative tests shortly while others take a while.


It wouldn't surprise me if the LTCs with lots of staff require the negative tests and those that are short staffed go with the time table you are referring to.


FWIW, her school mate in the US who tested positive was told by her US employer to stay home for fourteen days then come back to work with no further tests required.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> ... The regulators need to explain to the public how the approval process was relaxed and sped up. In what ways were clinical trials different than other drugs that get approval? I'll bet many people will be more comfortable getting the vaccine if we understand what compromises were made at the regulatory level ,,,
> 
> We know they fast-tracked it ... so I want it spelled out, what was done to achieve this fast-tracking?


OOH ... it would be good to know more details.

OTOH ... I've found references to other vaccine trials being 1/3 the size of the covid vaccine ones and timelines as long as a decade for traditional vaccine methods.


It may mean that next to nothing was sped up versus a traditional method getting to late stages in under a year where the SARS vaccine candidate was in the decade plus time line. when phase three human trials were looking for funding.




james4beach said:


> ... Just to be clear though: I *would* take the Pfizer shot.


While there's limited supplies, I'm not sure there will be a problem. By the time there are more than enough doses, there's likely to be millions upon millions already with it.

Cheers


----------



## OptsyEagle

I don't think explanations of development would put a big dent into people's reluctance to vaccinate. It is not going to change the fact that future unknown cannot possibly be identified. Eclectics info on the rabies vaccine trials would help a little but lets face it, go into a room, turn off the lights and to some level the room gets a little scarier. They are afraid of the unknown.

This decision is not about what is safe or dangerous, but about what is more dangerous, the vaccine or Covid-19. I would imagine the healthcare workers turning down the virus are most likely not coming into direct contact with Covid patients, as part of their job description. If they are and they are deeming the vaccine as the higher risk, someone in charge has truly dropped the ball and hiring healthcare workers with that level of IQ is probably a little more scarier. For the others (people not coming into contact with C-19 patients as part of their job), I don't really care and I am certainly not going to give a biased opinion on what they should do. I know what I will do, but again, that has bias.


----------



## sags

Unfortunately a test is only a reflection of the past. A person could get a negative test and then get infected on the way home for the test center.

About all it does is lower the odds that someone has the virus by the time they return to work.

Accurate rapid instant testing is the best solution, but we don't have any of those yet. I hope somebody is working on developing them.

Something like an alcohol breathalyzer type of test would be good to test all kinds of illnesses. 

For example......a breath test is possible for the H.Pylori stomach virus now, when it used to require stool samples.


----------



## sags

The COVID19 virus spreads rapidly once it gets inside a closed work environment, regardless of where it is or the precautions taken.

Another of our hospitals announced they have an outbreak on 2 floors involving patients and staff. I don't underestimate how contagious this virus is.

I listened to late night Fox News last night, and some of the anchors and guests are still going on about herd immunity and keeping everything open.

They are still claiming that only old people get sick from the virus, so just lock them down and let the virus run it's course.

Of course that it total nonsense, and the greatest hospitalization numbers are now in the middle age groups, but also includes both young and old.

People of all ages are becoming very sick and dying from COVID.

Also..........here we are a year into the virus and the best we can do is have people wear paper or cloth masks.

We should have an ample supply of N95 masks available for free by now.


----------



## Eclectic12

OptsyEagle said:


> I don't think explanations of development would put a big dent into people's reluctance to vaccinate. It is not going to change the fact that future unknown cannot possibly be identified. Eclectics info on the rabies vaccine trials would help a little but lets face it, go into a room, turn off the lights and to some level the room gets a little scarier. They are afraid of the unknown ...


IMO, unfortunate but likely true for a number of people.




OptsyEagle said:


> ... This decision is not about what is safe or dangerous, but about what is more dangerous, the vaccine or Covid-19. I would imagine the healthcare workers turning down the virus are most likely not coming into direct contact with Covid patients, as part of their job description. If they are and they are deeming the vaccine as the higher risk, someone in charge has truly dropped the ball and hiring healthcare workers with that level of IQ is probably a little more scarier.


Where one has been in daily contact with covid for months and the co-workers getting covid have been sloppy with PPE, sharing cars/meals, filling their schedule with double or triple shifts etc. - aren't they more likely to think that covid can be avoided like the flu?

IMO it would add bias that the unknown of the vaccine was more of a threat than what they believe their actions have avoided.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> ... Accurate rapid instant testing is the best solution, but we don't have any of those yet. I hope somebody is working on developing them.


My friend says they are on about a month of double swabs. One for the usual test and one for a rapid test so there may be changes coming.


Cheers


----------



## OptsyEagle

Eclectic12 said:


> Where one has been in daily contact with covid for months and the co-workers getting covid have been sloppy with PPE, sharing cars/meals, filling their schedule with double or triple shifts etc. - aren't they more likely to think that covid can be avoided like the flu?
> 
> Cheers


Good point.

I would still think that the majority of those in that group would still be part of the group I will call young, 39 or less...or they are certainly not thinking very clearly, but that last part is just my opinion, and in this case an opinion that does have any bearing.


----------



## Money172375

I thought the vaccine wasn’t approved for those under 18?



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/dishwasher-vaccinated-youngest-1.5860012



edit: I guess it’s age 16, not 18


----------



## Beaver101

^ I think it's under "16". 

I would be curious to know if someone is under age 16 and wants to be vaccinated, can they?


----------



## Beaver101

In-person learning should not resume in Ontario during lockdown: ETFO ... in this video, ETFO (Elementary Teachers Federation of Ontario) says primary school should not resume in person next week or duration of the lockdown

CP24 - Toronto News | Breaking News Headlines | Weather, Traffic, Sports ... in this video, an epidemiologist in ON says primary school should open next week. As with (ON) Education Minister Mr. Lecce.

No wonder parents in Ontario are confused as hell with the conflicting rules/guidelines from the "experts" ... both videos reported today.


----------



## Money172375

Teachers can’t make up their minds....they were fully against online learning 18 months ago....now they don’t want to enter the classroom. They will disagree with anything the government does....regardless who is in power.

I’m inclined to listen to the medical experts on this one....not the head of a union.


----------



## sags

It would be helpful if the Ford government wasn't totally inept.


----------



## Eclectic12

OptsyEagle said:


> Good point.
> 
> I would still think that the majority of those in that group would still be part of the group I will call young, 39 or less. ...


We'd have to get some stats instead of anecdotes.

My friend has talked about those in their '60's who are staying home/refusing to work, those that are delaying getting the vaccine who are working with covid positive residents and those who are eagerly making their appointments.


Cheers


----------



## OptsyEagle

Eclectic12 said:


> We'd have to get some stats instead of anecdotes.
> 
> My friend has talked about those in their '60's who are staying home/refusing to work, those that are delaying getting the vaccine who are working with covid positive residents and those who are eagerly making their appointments.
> 
> 
> Cheers


We don't actually need anything. It will be what it will be. 

I think that as we get more people vaccinated. Into the millions should do it. People who these people actually know get vaccinated. We will see the fears that persist today, start to dissipate to a very large degree. An unvaccinated person will always know they are at risk. The press will remind them with horror stories at least weekly for a long while. They will see these protected people and for quite a few of the reluctant ones (not all of course), I suspect they will vaccinate.

In the end it affects them more then it does anyone who has vaccinated, so it is really just an interest story to me, at this point.


----------



## sags

Some people are afraid of any medical care. Some people are afraid of needles. Some people don't believe the vaccines are safe. 

Some people don't know much about anything.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Some people are afraid of any medical care. Some people are afraid of needles. Some people don't believe the vaccines are safe.
> 
> Some people don't know much about anything.


 ... even healthcare workers in the USA? Gotto find that link (yesterday) where the vaccination take-up rate amongst frontline healthcare workers (primarily nurses) in the USA is dismally low.


----------



## Eclectic12

Or it may be that they know too much. 
According to a Chicago hospital, how well the Tuskegee healthcare worked for the patients is a factor that they are seeing in the refusals.








Tuskegee Syphilis Study - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org













Large Numbers Of Health Care And Frontline Workers Are Refusing Covid-19 Vaccine


"I've heard Tuskegee more times than I can count in the past month — and, you know, it's a valid, valid concern."




www.forbes.com






Cheers


----------



## james4beach

HodgesNick said:


> I simply don't get what's in the mind of the poeple that are refusing the vaccine, but apply the 5 seconds rule


I've gotten pretty much every vaccine that's out there. I even went out of my way to get an extra Measles (MMR) shot as an adult. [ As an aside, if you were a child in the 1980s in Ontario, beware that you may not have received a sufficiently strong dosage of MMR ]

But I am not rushing to get the COVID vaccines yet until I have a better understanding of what % of people have serious adverse reactions. Early reports (there was an article at Bloomberg) showed that currently, the vaccines have about twice the rate of severe allergic reactions of typical flu vaccines.

There are probably many people like me (including doctors by the way) who aren't refusing the vaccine, but are holding back a bit as we see more data. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines use a new technology that has, until now, never been given to large numbers of people. It makes sense to be a bit cautious to see how this goes.


----------



## Money172375

Covid and police actions colliding. I thought 2020 was over. Not sure if this story is 100% truthful or not. It’s been percolating online. Young guy gets arrested for mouthing off to cops after he was asked for ID. Gets arrested for obstruction......but in effect, it was a “lockdown” issue. they may have been exceeding the outdoor limit of 10....it’s appears to be a car hangout.

guys commits suicide the next day.









WARMINGTON: Man arrested under lockdown rules Saturday, dead on Monday


This shocking death will not be recorded as a COVID-19 death statistic.




torontosun.com


----------



## andrewf

Maybe this guy had underlying psychological issues. I doubt someone not already perturbed would be driven to suicide by that situation. He may have offed himself absent any police interaction, but it wouldn't make the Sun in that case.


----------



## Beaver101

^ It's a real news story given journalist is Warmington from TO Sun. Kid's death was that he was at the wrong place at the wrong time along with typical police handling (use of force) when you start mouthing the cops.



> _“On Saturday, January 2, 2021, at approximately 9:40 p.m., the Toronto Police Service received calls from the public reporting a large gathering of individuals in the area of Midland Avenue and Finch Avenue East. Officers arrived to find a gathering of approximately 50 people and cars gathered in contravention of the Reopening Ontario Act. Some members of this large gathering refused to disperse and did not comply with the officers’ orders, resulting in one person being criminally charged with Obstruct Police.
> 
> “During the arrest, the person stated they were in crisis. Officers responded immediately by taking the person to the hospital. The person was assessed by a doctor and released by the hospital to his family. The person had no further contact with the Toronto Police. Since then, we have learned the person died at their home in Durham Region on Monday, January 4, 2021. Given this is a non-criminal matter which took place outside the jurisdiction of Toronto, we will not comment. The service offers condolences to the family.”
> 
> It’s a horrible tragedy.
> 
> There’s no hiding this all seems to stem from management and enforcement of the draconian lockdown and the reaction people have to it. Police should not be asked to arrest people for simply being outside and people should not be disrespectful to police under orders to do their job. _





> _It’s a no-win situation. The only good that can come out of this is Premier Doug Ford calling for a cease and desist order on the troubling Reopening Ontario act_.


 ... I agree with the first statement but I highly doubt Ford will call for a cease and desist order on the Reopening Ontario Act or lift the lock-down anytime soon. I think some people, particularly those young crowd needs to pay more attention to the "news" (at least local) on their smartphones instead of focusing on selfies, Instagrams and what-haves. Plus having street/car-meets in mall parking lots. Too much Fast & Furious influences.

Added: I think andrewf has the point.


----------



## newfoundlander61

So a commerical was aired last night about Aeroplan/Air Canada and flying, not something I expected with a pandemic on the go and the government telling everyone not to fly.


----------



## james4beach

COVID advice from Guatemala:

“If you’re in the street and you don’t know the convenient social distance to keep, imagine that there’s a Central American tapir between you and the other person.”


----------



## Money172375

Ontario hospitals asked to accept patients from outside their regions. Beds are running out. School closures also extended for elementary students in much of the province. Massive increases in positive cases amongst 10-13 year olds over the holidays.









Ontario hospitals told to prepare for out-of-region patients amid rising coronavirus cases | Globalnews.ca


"What we do together in the next few days and weeks will set the stage for our ability to meet escalating and anticipated hospital capacity demands."




globalnews.ca


----------



## sags

My wife's work called at 5 am and told her they have a positive case at the retirement home. A kitchen worker tested positive last Saturday.

The wife had the first shot of Pfizer vaccine and has been working all week, so I hope she has some protection.

We should have had total lockdowns for a couple of months and battled down the virus. Now we are paying the price for our stupidity.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> Ontario hospitals asked to accept patients from outside their regions. Beds are running out. School closures also extended for elementary students in much of the province. Massive increases in positive cases amongst 10-13 year olds over the holidays.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario hospitals told to prepare for out-of-region patients amid rising coronavirus cases | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> "What we do together in the next few days and weeks will set the stage for our ability to meet escalating and anticipated hospital capacity demands."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


 ... I wouldn't be surprised that a curfew will be imposed after (or maybe before) the expiration of the current lockdown. 

As for the increasing positivity rate amongst elementary school, I'm not surprised at all. 

Given the continuous flip-floppings between inperson (school attendance) / online learning as announced spartially by ON's Education Minister, I wonder if he is even qualified for that job.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> My wife's work called at 5 am and told her they have a positive case at the retirement home. A kitchen worker tested positive last Saturday.
> 
> The wife had the first shot of Pfizer vaccine and has been working all week, so I hope she has some protection.
> 
> We should have had total lockdowns for a couple of months and battled down the virus. Now we are paying the price for our stupidity.


 ... if the numbers are not going down, either that lockdown period is going to be extended or an added curfew entertained. Actually imposed already in Quebec from 8 pm to 5 am unless reason given to be out (eg. employer's note for work, hospital emergencies, use of common sense I guess, etc.).

Here's the newspiece:
Ontario's top doctor eyes curfew to curb the spread of COVID-19 as cases surge

I say 'bring it on' ... drastic times require drastic measures.


----------



## sags

As my wife rushed out the door to work, she said the kitchen worker tested positive last Saturday.

So it took a week to get the test results and everyone in the retirement home were exposed to the virus for that period of time.

The whole system is overwhelmed and breaking down, and the Ford government struggles to make decisions.

They should start by ignoring any "advice" from the TO Sun or right wing politicians. 

They have been wrong about everything from the beginning of the pandemic.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> COVID advice from Guatemala:
> 
> “If you’re in the street and you don’t know the convenient social distance to keep, imagine that there’s a Central American tapir between you and the other person.”
> 
> View attachment 21064


 ... hey, whatever works.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> As my wife rushed out the door to work, she said the kitchen worker tested positive last Saturday.
> 
> So it took a week to get the test results and everyone in the retirement home were exposed to the virus for that period of time.
> 
> The whole system is overwhelmed and breaking down, and the Ford government struggles to make decisions.


 ... why aren't they using the rapid testing system? Are there limited supplies of those? This LTC fiasco is definitely under Minster M. Fullerton's expertise as Ford can only do so much.



> They should start by ignoring any "advice" from the TO Sun or right wing politicians.
> 
> They have been wrong about everything from the beginning of the pandemic.


 ... don't start this right and left because the current Fed ain't doing any better with the vaccines procurement, starting with the she-Minister. Next thing you know, the PPE expiration destroyment, export fiascos, finger-pointings, etc.are going to be resurrected here.


----------



## sags

You are right.......we should leave the decisions totally to the doctors and experts. The media should not influence the decisions.

I haven't heard of any rapid testing around here. I don't think they are considered accurate in any event.

There just isn't enough laboratory resources to process all the tests.

I believe we are not capable of containing the virus, and thus should initiate a total lock down until vaccines are widely available.


----------



## Money172375

Cases in Ontario up approx 30% day-over-day. Premier sounding fearful. Says new projections coming next week that will frighten you. Yet York and other regions are asking for less restrictions. What measures do we have left? Stop construction? I think we need to block off non-food areas of the costco, Walmart, shoppers DM. People are still loitering and mingling shopping for non-essentials. 
how else can we stop social gatherings?


----------



## OptsyEagle

Money172375 said:


> Cases in Ontario up approx 30% day-over-day. Premier sounding fearful. Says new projections coming next week that will frighten you. Yet York and other regions are asking for less restrictions. What measures do we have left? Stop construction? I think we need to block off non-food areas of the costco, Walmart, shoppers DM. People are still loitering and mingling shopping for non-essentials.
> how else can we stop social gatherings?


It's unlikely many of the infections are coming from places where everyone wears a mask. Certainly none of the ICUs came from there.

My list has not changed:
1) Unprotected indoor gathering
2) Unprotected vehicle passengers
3) Workplace's that do not implement precautions 100% of the time, including cafeteria/lunch and other breaks.

That is where they came from.


----------



## Eclectic12

Makes you wonder why for a local LTC, the first positive resident was one that returned a day or two ago from a hospital.


Cheers


----------



## sags

_It's unlikely many of the infections are coming from places where everyone wears a mask. Certainly none of the ICUs came from there. _

Huh ? Both of our hospitals have outbreaks on several floors. They require mask wearing and take temperatures and fill out a questionnaire to get in the door.

People going into the hospital for other health issues, have caught COVID while there and died in the ICU.


----------



## sags

The question some are asking is.........how can we lock down, without actually locking down ?

Answer.......we can't.


----------



## sags

My son works in construction. He has spent the last week out of town on a big project.

The crew stays in a hotel, eats in local restaurants, and engages with project managers and other trades.

Effectively........there isn't much protection against COVID deployed in the construction industry.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> _It's unlikely many of the infections are coming from places where everyone wears a mask. Certainly none of the ICUs came from there. _
> 
> Huh ? Both of our hospitals have outbreaks on several floors. They require mask wearing and take temperatures and fill out a questionnaire to get in the door.
> 
> People going into the hospital for other health issues, have caught COVID while there and died in the ICU.


I still think it would be difficult to eat while wearing a mask so I really wonder about the claim that they were always wearing a mask. Workplaces make the same claim but take a look at an average lunch room and again, you find employees grouping together while they eat. If you're going to do that, why wear a mask at your desk?

Also, I am going to make an exception for "high covid concentration" environments like ICU or Covid wards. Luckily that does not exclude many places where masks, if worn by all, will dramatically drop the rate of transmission.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> I still think it would be difficult to eat while wearing a mask so I really wonder about the claim that they were always wearing a mask. Workplaces make the same claim but take a look at an average lunch room and again, you find employees grouping together while they eat. If you're going to do that, why wear a mask at your desk?


Guess it depends on the place and current restrictions. I know of lunch areas that are strictly managed, as in, one person per table and they have staggered the lunch time breaks to greatly reduce occupancy levels. They also sanitize each table after it is used. I would guess hospitals follow rules as well and many areas have their own small lunch rooms that can be easily managed for safety without a mask.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Guess it depends on the place and current restrictions. I know of lunch areas that are strictly managed, as in, one person per table and they have staggered the lunch time breaks to greatly reduce occupancy levels. They also sanitize each table after it is used. I would guess hospitals follow rules as well and many areas have their own small lunch rooms that can be easily managed for safety without a mask.


Absolutely. I don't expect workers to not eat lunch or take breaks. I do expect that they should stay more then 6 feet away from others, during both those events, and wash up accordingly after their breaks. A little more difficult to do in an overcrowded hospital. Even with plastic barriers, the aerosol levels that would come about from our most ill covid patients, breathing and coughing for days and days on end, should make the ability to get infected so much easier when even the smallest mistake in protocol is made by the healthy.


----------



## OptsyEagle

By the way, if any employers are wondering how to get your employees to follow Covid-19 precautions, Tom Cruise has a pretty good example of how to make sure they get the message. I think he caught one of his employees looking over another employees shoulder to see his computer screen...without a mask on.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Read that the 5 crews that he [email protected]^)k them quit the day after. Not sure if they were replaced ... most likely since you can get employees a dime by the dozen these days.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The question some are asking is.........how can we lock down, without actually locking down ?
> 
> Answer.......we can't.


 .. it's not a 'real' lock-down ... people still have the liberty to move about for essential services and skirt the rules for non-essential ones.

I think to make it "work", it all boils down to social (personal) responsibility or the use of common sense for which some people are sadly lacking these days despite the guidelines/rules/laws are already out there to guide them.


----------



## Money172375

My mom keeps asking when we’re coming for a visit. She has cancer, and so did my dad...he’s in remission. I said I might come over and say hi from the driveway if it gets warmer. She said neighbours on both sides are having their kids and grandkids over. I told her not to worry about them. Told her to stay home and offered to have deliveries ordered.

my friends were complaining about our Premier. I asked them how many of them had plans over the holidays. I didn’t wait for an answer because I didn’t want to hear it.

these ”simple” exceptions that people make are not helping,


----------



## Synergy

OptsyEagle said:


> It's unlikely many of the infections are coming from places where everyone wears a mask. Certainly none of the ICUs came from there.
> 
> My list has not changed:
> 1) Unprotected indoor gathering
> 2) Unprotected vehicle passengers
> 3) Workplace's that do not implement precautions 100% of the time, including cafeteria/lunch and other breaks.
> 
> That is where they came from.


We had a local hospital with a bad outbreak. Spread amongst numerous doctor, nurses, etc. Relatively small hospital and there was well over 30 staff and 30 patients that tested positive. It's not only the general public that don't follow rules very well. You don't want to know how it all started....


----------



## james4beach

An interesting recent article on COVID and long term effects









Covid-19 Is Looking More and More Like an Autoimmune Disease


Autoimmunity may explain how the virus inflicts such widespread and unpredictable damage




elemental.medium.com





We are still learning what this disease does to the body. First reported in Germany, a lot of people who have COVID end up with inflammation of the heart, and it lasts for a while. It's common among mild cases too, even people who just recovered at home.

The article warns that this effect can be a long term condition that can be harmful long after the fact.


----------



## OptsyEagle

The problem with most people is they think that if they follow precautions 90% of the time, then they are doing their part. Unfortuneately 90% is about the same as doing nothing. The virus does not care that you try. If you seal up all your windows at home and replace all the screens to keep the mosquitos out, does it really matter if you also keep the back door open so the dog can go in and out?

If you try hard all day keeping away from co-workers and wearing a mask at your desk, do you think the virus really cares that it had to wait until you had lunch with your 2 friends at work, before it could grab onto a piece of you?

If you keep your visits with the grandchildren down to once per week, instead of every 2nd day, does the virus really get annoyed that they had to wait until Sunday to get at you?

If you went to a friends house 3 weeks ago and nothing happened does that really sterilize your friends from all viral contamination for all future visits. Did success 3 weeks ago really prove that the activity is actually safe? Are you sure your friends locked themselves up in a sterilized room and went no where and saw no one for the last 3 weeks so you can visit with them again today?

and I could go on. It's hard to watch. And yes, Money172375, we all have family members just like you do, so don't feel bad.


----------



## Beaver101

^ So what do you propose? Other than telling everyone here "the virus is everywhere and it's useless whatever you do" I.e. be prepared to die. 

Ain't gonna to help sell more insurance policies.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Beaver101 said:


> ^ So what do you propose? Other than telling everyone here "the virus is everywhere and it's useless whatever you do" I.e. be prepared to die.
> 
> Ain't gonna to help sell more insurance policies.


Can you not figure that out. 90% is not enough. Did that clear it up?

Beav. Does the fact that I sold insurance at some point in my life really render everything I say as wrong? Can you not let it go? Was it really relevant in your last post? Was anything in your last post relevant except to attack me? Not sure what I did to you but lets move on. Your posts are getting a little more then annoying.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> Can you not figure that out. 90% is not enough. Did that clear it up?


 .. no, 90% is not enough of what? to kill everyone? Or do you need 110% to do that?



> Beav. Does the fact that I sold insurance at some point in my life really render everything I say as wrong?


 ... I didn't say you were wrong ... I asked you what do you propose we do given the virus is everywhere. I get the impression from your post that we should all put up our arms (ie. our efforts to slow/stop the spread are in vain) and just wait for the inevitable ... we gonna die anyways.



> Can you not let it go? Was it really relevant in your last post? Was anything in your last post relevant except to attack me? Not sure what I did to you but lets move on. Your posts are getting a little more then annoying.


 ... why are you getting edgy? Wasn't it you who started trying to make light of this serious crisis we're all going through ... the humour injection? So it's okay for you to make jokes and not others. And that your posts aren't annoying, correct?

Besides, I still question the "guaranteed renewable" benefit in your previous post as an "explanation" for the 700% premium increase from an enquiring poster and your subsequent attempt to hide that dishonesty with your other mocking on customers' right to be skeptical about the ethics of commissioned insurance salespeople.


----------



## like_to_retire

Beaver101 said:


> ^ So what do you propose?


I've got a novel idea that no one seems to have thought of. Why not vaccinate everyone? The government and everyone else spend so much time on all these precautions when they could spend time vaccinating people. How about those 70,000 COVID tests Ontario does every day - why not just replace that with vaccinating those people instead. They're already standing in line.

ltr


----------



## Beaver101

like_to_retire said:


> I've got a novel idea that no one seems to have thought of. Why not vaccinate everyone? The government and everyone else spend so much time on all these precautions when they could spend time vaccinating people. How about those 70,000 COVID tests Ontario does every day - why not just replace that with vaccinating those people instead. They're already standing in line.
> 
> ltr


 ... I got an idea too ... we should all either sit and pick our nose at home, or just totally ignore public health guidelines to not social distance, not wear masks, not wash hands, etc. whilst waiting for the vaccines to be delivered ... some 7 months from now at earliest ... for the general population.


----------



## like_to_retire

Beaver101 said:


> some 7 months from now at earliest ... for the general population.


Why do we have to wait 7 months? What the heck are they waiting for.

Perfect example of the reason for the delay. A freezer breaks in a Northern California hospital and the Moderna vaccine that was to be distributed over the next few weeks would go bad in 2 hours. Guess what happened?

ltr


----------



## OptsyEagle

like_to_retire said:


> Why do we have to wait 7 months? What the heck are they waiting for.
> 
> Perfect example of the reason for the delay. A freezer breaks in a Northern California hospital and the Moderna vaccine that was to be distributed over the next few weeks would go bad in 2 hours. Guess what happened?
> 
> ltr


Not sure what you mean? We can nitpik about how fast we are vaccinating with completely insufficient amounts of vaccine, but until we receive mega gallons more of the stuff, we can't really fix this 2nd wave problem with vaccine. Of course if we could, we should and I am pretty sure we would. But we can't.

So until then, if everyone used 100% precaution, 100% of the time, with 100% of the people outside of their households, a lot of lives would be saved. If they don't, these people will be dead long before the vaccine is ready for them. The only consolation I have is that, except for LTC residents, almost all of the people that will die, will at least be the ones that were not using precaution 100% of the time. It just seems like a high price to pay to have a better life for 6 or 7 more months or whatever other excuse we want to use that the virus could care less about.


----------



## Eclectic12

like_to_retire said:


> I've got a novel idea that no one seems to have thought of. Why not vaccinate everyone?


I'm pretty sure it's not a novel idea but with something around 200K doses delivered with talk of 4 million by end of March 2021 for 35 million plus - it's pretty much a future possibility.




like_to_retire said:


> ... The government and everyone else spend so much time on all these precautions when they could spend time vaccinating people. How about those 70,000 COVID tests Ontario does every day - why not just replace that with vaccinating those people instead. They're already standing in line.


Could be spending the time on vaccinating?

I guess you didn't notice that the first shipment of moderna's vaccine won't cover a single day? 
It's 53K versus your number of 70K.

Throw in the Pfizer one and it looks like it's still under a week.


It seems clear that the answer to "why not everyone" is that the available doses are nowhere near enough to go with a first come, first server method.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

like_to_retire said:


> Why do we have to wait 7 months? What the heck are they waiting for.


Receiving enough of the vaccine to get it to everyone.




like_to_retire said:


> ... Perfect example of the reason for the delay. A freezer breaks in a Northern California hospital and the Moderna vaccine that was to be distributed over the next few weeks would go bad in 2 hours. Guess what happened?


One freezer full being distributed in a couple of hours tells you something about when the US will move to vaccinating everyone?

Seems like red tape is being focused on instead of the simple fact that there aren't enough doses produced yet.


Cheers


----------



## like_to_retire

Eclectic12 said:


> One freezer full being distributed in a couple of hours tells you something about when the US will move to vaccinating everyone?


It's an example of what happens when there's an urgency. It's all taking far longer than it needs to take. Only five of a possible 17 vaccination clinics across Ontario were in operation over the Christmas holidays because people wanted holidays. I've read there are millions of U.S. vaccine doses sit on ice while they work on red tape and decide if this person or this other person goes first.

This is what happens when governments are involved. A whole lot of sitting around discussing things instead of doing the job.

ltr


----------



## Eclectic12

Sure ... but it does not change that a fraction of what is needed has been shipped, particularly for Canada.
I'm all for improving the speed of using what's currently available but it's not like a faster distribution will do anything about the shortfall.

Or change the need for current containment methods to be in use.

Cheers


*PS*
I don't know about who you talk to but everyone I have was not interested in going in over the holidays for a covid shot.


----------



## sags

It is up to the drug companies how they are distributed. Until we receive more........vaccinate as many people as possible.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario reps are claiming that vaccination rates should pick up quickly soon. Should get up to 40,000/day.


----------



## sags

That is good news, but remember these are the first vaccinations and all these people will have to receive the second vaccine shot as well.

So, basically there are very few people who have received both vaccine shots so far. We don't know how effective one dose will be.


----------



## Beaver101

^ At least 1. we are getting more supply, and 2. innoculations are moving. Sheesh, talk about our governments' (Feds & Provincial) competency.


----------



## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> Ontario reps are claiming that vaccination rates should pick up quickly soon. Should get up to 40,000/day.


And so far, the biggest single week vaccine shipment reference I have seen has been 80K for the week.

If they really do ramp up to 40K a day, there's two days of vaccinations and then another five days of waiting for another shipment.


Cheers


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario nurses under investigation after travelling to Washington D.C. to allegedly take part in anti-lockdown event on day of riot

Not sure why these 2 crazies wanted to be nurses in the first place. Scary.



> _In videos posted to social media by the group, "Nurses Against Lockdowns” the women are seen addressing the crowd at the “Global Frontline Nurses” summit in Washington DC, an event that was scheduled to take place in front of the U.S. Supreme Court just hours before a group of rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol building, breaking windows and tearing through the offices of elected officials.
> 
> In one video, Sarah Choujounian identifies herself to the crowd as *a nurse from Toronto who has spent most of her 16-year career working in a nursing home.*
> 
> She claims she was fired after speaking out against lockdowns on social media, expresses concern that vaccines could harm seniors, and says restrictions on visitors at nursing homes constitute "crimes against humanity.”
> 
> According to the CNO, Choujounian worked at Norfinch Care Community in North York until 2020.
> 
> *Kristen Nagle, a neonatal intensive care unit nurse from London *according to the CNO, is shown speaking in another video.
> 
> Addressing the crowd, Nagle suggests the number of COVID-19 deaths compared to Canada’s overall population is evidence that the health restrictions are “crazy.” ... _


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> Ontario nurses under investigation after travelling to Washington D.C. to allegedly take part in anti-lockdown event on day of riot
> 
> Not sure why these 2 crazies wanted to be nurses in the first place. Scary.


Maybe Trudeau should have closed the border to non-essential travel?


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> And so far, the biggest single week vaccine shipment reference I have seen has been 80K for the week.
> 
> If they really do ramp up to 40K a day, there's two days of vaccinations and then another five days of waiting for another shipment.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Apparently there are delays, seems the Ontario strategy of making sure we have stock to properly administer the vaccine, according to the approved vaccination schedule was a good idea.


----------



## Money172375

Feds secured another 20 million doses. Premiers seem confident they can jab at very high rates....this is good news.









Canada locks in 20M more Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine doses to arrive this spring


Canada has exercised an option with pharmaceutical giant Pfizer-BioNTech to secure an additional 20 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, with the first deliveries of some of these doses expected in April at the earliest.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Feds secured another 20 million doses. Premiers seem confident they can jab at very high rates....this is good news.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada locks in 20M more Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine doses to arrive this spring
> 
> 
> Canada has exercised an option with pharmaceutical giant Pfizer-BioNTech to secure an additional 20 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, with the first deliveries of some of these doses expected in April at the earliest.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


Where die the premiers say they were confident?
Last week Ford was pleading for more as we were about to run out.


----------



## sags

Ford does a lot of pleading. He is the "Prince of Pleading". With furrowed brows and a stern look..........he is an "everything is on the table" kind of leader.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Where die the premiers say they were confident?
> Last week Ford was pleading for more as we were about to run out.


Confident about how fast they can do it, once they get it.


----------



## sags

Beaver.......the CEO of London's hospital network was just terminated by the board.

After outbreaks at two hospitals, he sent a memo to staff blasting them for not following protocol and causing the outbreak.

Then he drove to the US to see his family........numerous times. Apparently he is a US citizen.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/paul-woods-covid-19-hospital-london-travel-1.5868429



The nurse from the same London hospital is already under an unpaid leave for a trip in November. 

I would think she is now terminated with cause and likely will have her registration revoked by the college of nursing.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Beaver.......the CEO of London's hospital network was just terminated by the board.
> 
> After outbreaks at two hospitals, he sent a memo to staff blasting them for not following protocol and causing the outbreak.
> 
> Then he drove to the US to see his family........numerous times. Apparently he is a US citizen.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/paul-woods-covid-19-hospital-london-travel-1.5868429


No, he's a Canadian Citizen, as reported by both CTV and LFpress.

Care to back up your false claim that he's a US citizen? I know you won't, but I'll ask.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> Where die the premiers say they were confident?
> Last week Ford was pleading for more as we were about to run out.


I don't see info on premiers sentiments in the article either.

Though, with more vaccination sites open - manpower and having doses seem to be part of the limiting factors.


Cheers


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> No, he's a Canadian Citizen, as reported by both CTV and LFpress.
> 
> Care to back up your false claim that he's a US citizen? I know you won't, but I'll ask.


Right.........he isn't a US citizen but a Permanent Resident of the US. 

Pretty much the same thing. That is how he was able to cross the border by vehicle.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Right.........he isn't a US citizen but a Permanent Resident of the US.
> 
> Pretty much the same thing. That is how he was able to cross the border by vehicle.


Not even close to the same thing. But thanks for the retraction.


----------



## Money172375

Eclectic12 said:


> I don't see info on premiers sentiments in the article either.
> 
> Though, with more vaccination sites open - manpower and having doses seem to be part of the limiting factors.
> 
> 
> Cheers


I saw the premiers on the news. Here’s a couple of articles expressing their sentiment that they have a supply issue, not a problem with the actual execution of jabbing arms.









‘We need more doses — bottom line’: Jason Kenney says Alberta is set to run out of COVID-19 vaccine


The federal government has released a new vaccine delivery schedule for the next six weeks, but Kenney says his province is scaling up vaccination — and fast




www.thestar.com












Ford boasts Ontario will lead North America for COVID-19 vaccine rollout | News


Premier Doug Ford boasted that Ontario will lead North America once the COVID-19 vaccine rollout is ramped up, as he faces critcism for the plan.




dailyhive.com


----------



## sags

Not even half of the vaccines available have been used in Ontario.

Our "ramp up" is from 12 vaccination booths to 20.

What is Ford talking about ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Not even half of the vaccines available have been used in Ontario.
> 
> Our "ramp up" is from 12 vaccination booths to 20.
> 
> What is Ford talking about ?


Source?
Of course you're not counting doses allocated to complete the required vaccination schedule are you?
In case you didn't know, some of the vaccines being used need 2 doses taken a period of time apart. It is important that the second dose is given at the correct time. Logically they will secure those second doses to ensure that the quality of the vaccination is maintained.

FYI, in some jurisdictions they're not planning to ensure people are getting vaccinated properly.


----------



## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> I saw the premiers on the news. Here’s a couple of articles expressing their sentiment that they have a supply issue, not a problem with the actual execution of jabbing arms.


There's been a couple of warnings of areas running out of vaccine.

At the same time, with the way testing went - I'm not putting much confidence in Ford's sentiments that the first few weeks will mean the problems have been dealt with. 

Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> Not even half of the vaccines available have been used in Ontario ...


I suspect some of those "unused" doses are what arrived on the loading dock this week.
Particularly since last Friday something over 72K vaccinations were reported of 95K received.

If it were that low then replenishing the sites that are out would be easy.




sags said:


> ... Our "ramp up" is from 12 vaccination booths to 20.
> What is Ford talking about ?


Better question is what are you talking about?

Pilot was two sites and has been expanded to 19 sites. 

The LTC home around the corner had residents being vaccinated on Saturday where AFAICT, it isn't being counted as a site. Hot spot Windsor-Essex took ten days to vaccinate all it's LTC homes but will run out of vaccine before the retirement homes can be completed. Ottawa, OTOH was running out after four LTC homes.


Cheers


----------



## sags

Wrong.......1000 vaccinations per day (maybe).....divided by two shots required per person....they will have everyone fully vaccinated in 4 years.......maybe.









Coronavirus: London, Ont., quickly ramping up to 1,000 vaccinations a day - London | Globalnews.ca


The London Health Sciences Centre is 'looking to get up to 1,000 vaccinations per day in the near future' and is announcing an expansion in access to coronavirus vaccines.




globalnews.ca


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Wrong.......1000 vaccinations per day (maybe).....divided by two shots required per person....they will have everyone fully vaccinated in 4 years.......maybe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: London, Ont., quickly ramping up to 1,000 vaccinations a day - London | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> The London Health Sciences Centre is 'looking to get up to 1,000 vaccinations per day in the near future' and is announcing an expansion in access to coronavirus vaccines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


You keep obsessing over the "slow" rate, yet forget we don't have enough vaccine to go faster.
What's the point in vaccinating 7k people on Monday, then doing nothing all week.

Better to set up a dedicated, sustainable, 1k/day system.

Plus that is just 1 Hospital.


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> Wrong.......1000 vaccinations per day (maybe).....divided by two shots required per person....they will have everyone fully vaccinated in 4 years.......maybe.


With a London, Ontario population in 2016 of 404K, that's 808K doses. At 1K a day, it's 808 days or 2.2 years. 
I'm sure holidays etc. may stretch it out a bit but I'm doubting four years.

'Course you do realise that you were complaining about the province when you wrote "in Ontario", right?


Cheers


----------



## Money172375

Eclectic12 said:


> With a London, Ontario population in 2016 of 404K, that's 808K doses. At 1K a day, it's 808 days or 2.2 years.
> I'm sure holidays etc. may stretch it out a bit but I'm doubting four years.
> 
> 'Course you do realise that you were complaining about the province when you wrote "in Ontario", right?
> 
> 
> Cheers


By phase 3, the vaccine will be available in pharmacies and family doctor offices.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I believe the Feds said by (end) of September 2021 on phase 3 (general population).


----------



## sags

Another virus strain has been discovered in Japan. 









Japan: COVID-19 cases in Tokyo rise as new strain found


Capital already under state of emergency to contain spread of novel disease - Anadolu Agency




www.aa.com.tr


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Another virus strain has been discovered in Japan.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Japan: COVID-19 cases in Tokyo rise as new strain found
> 
> 
> Capital already under state of emergency to contain spread of novel disease - Anadolu Agency
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aa.com.tr


Maybe Trudeau will close the border to non-essential travel?
Implement mandatory quarantines?
Anyone want to take that bet?


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Another virus strain has been discovered in Japan.


In fact there are 361 (of 3932) new genomes sampled in the last month.


----------



## sags

Are all the other strains infecting people ? Hopefully we aren't one mutation away from a worse virus.

The 4 Japanese were infected in Brazil.

Also announced today, that scientists from many countries have arrived in China to investigate the origin of the virus.

They have to quarantine for 14 days before they can begin.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Are all the other strains infecting people ?


Yes, that's how they are found. Most countries sequence a percentage of positive PCR tests.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Are all the other strains infecting people ? Hopefully we aren't one mutation away from a worse virus.
> 
> The 4 Japanese were infected in Brazil.
> 
> Also announced today, that scientists from many countries have arrived in China to investigate the origin of the virus.
> 
> They have to quarantine for 14 days before they can begin.


You can't say 'all', but I think it's safe to assume the strains they find have infected at least 1 person.

We're always "one mutation" away from a worse virus.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Mother nature has brought us a very useful a law of viral transmission. It is not a perfect mathematical formula, because each individual virus has some unique qualities that will adjust the math a little one way or the other, as will all mutations. So it is more of a relationship then a formula, but it has saved our species for over hundreds of thousands of years and I remain confident it will keep protecting us for many more years in the future.

The relationship is this:

The more violent the virus strain is = The less transmissive it is.
The less violent the virus strain is = The more transmissive it is.

Sorry I don't have a scientific study for this so I will give my brief explanation and let you decide on its merits.

The most aggressive viruses tend to be ones that reproduce very quickly. Quicker then our immune systems can respond to the threat. Since it quickly becomes intolerant to our bodies, our symptoms tend to show quickly and just as importantly, but not mandatory, we die quickly. Once people start to show symptoms they tend to take themselves out of the general population, reducing their personal transmission of the virus. Once they are dead, they will infect no one again. This makes the virus MUCH LESS transmissive and of course the opposite also holds true. 

Time of transmission is probably one of the largest criterias involved in how transmissive any virus will ever be. It is not the only criteria, just the most important one.

So, with that said, a changing mutation may cause the virus to be more destructive to us, then the current mutations we are dealing with, but any increase in violence is usually met will a decline in transmission rate.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Are all the other strains infecting people ? Hopefully we aren't one mutation away from a worse virus.
> 
> The 4 Japanese were infected in Brazil.
> 
> Also announced today, that scientists from many countries have arrived in China to investigate the origin of the virus.
> 
> They have to quarantine for 14 days before they can begin.


The UK strain is worse--it is far more infectious.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> So it is more of a relationship then a formula, but it has saved our species for over hundreds of thousands of years and I remain confident it will keep protecting us for many more years in the future.
> 
> The relationship is this:
> 
> The more violent the virus strain is = The less transmissive it is.
> The less violent the virus strain is = The more transmissive it is.


This is only a tendency and cannot be relied upon. Mutations are random, and which ones gain prevalence is in large part a function of being virulent and not immediately debilitating. HIV spread rampantly despite being quite deadly if untreated and requiring physical contact to spread.


----------



## bgc_fan

For those who think that we should delay the second dose in favour of giving more people the first dose may want to reconsider. It looks like there were some LTC residents who received the first dose and then developed COVID within 28 days. It's not stated whether how many were within the 21 days (when you were supposed to receive the second dose), so maybe they would have been infected anyway. But something to consider when people think that the first dose is good enough. Seven residents at Montreal care home get COVID despite receiving first vaccine dose


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> For those who think that we should delay the second dose in favour of giving more people the first dose may want to reconsider. It looks like there were some LTC residents who received the first dose and then developed COVID within 28 days. It's not stated whether how many were within the 21 days (when you were supposed to receive the second dose), so maybe they would have been infected anyway. But something to consider when people think that the first dose is good enough. Seven residents at Montreal care home get COVID despite receiving first vaccine dose


Did they say how many died?


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> This is only a tendency and cannot be relied upon. Mutations are random, and which ones gain prevalence is in large part a function of being virulent and not immediately debilitating. HIV spread rampantly despite being quite deadly if untreated and requiring physical contact to spread.


Of course not.

A new virus can certainly offer up a much scarier outcome then what we have seen so far with C-19. A mutation can also, but is more limited in the fact that the major genome of any mutation will usually be very similar to the mutation it came from. So usually mutations tend to provide a much more gradual difference, but a difference all the same.

Also, keep in mind that HIV did not spread rampantly. You are being distracted by the fact that it has been around so long and we have no cure yet. Vaccines and cures were not part of my point. I will also take exception to a non-respiratory virus. HIV will have some of those unique qualities I mentioned as an exception, more from how it is transmitted then anything else.

There are obviously a lot of dead people from Covid-19 that my rule did not save. More are alive however and hence the rule is certainly not broken either. I mention it only to take some of the scariness out of these mutation announcements. We knew they were coming and I doubt many will be overly material...but I could be wrong.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Did they say how many died?


Nope, they said that's confidential information.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> For those who think that we should delay the second dose in favour of giving more people the first dose may want to reconsider. It looks like there were some LTC residents who received the first dose and then developed COVID within 28 days. It's not stated whether how many were within the 21 days (when you were supposed to receive the second dose), so maybe they would have been infected anyway. But something to consider when people think that the first dose is good enough. Seven residents at Montreal care home get COVID despite receiving first vaccine dose


Ontario is one of the few jurisdictions which is planning to strictly adhere to the vaccination schedule.
Several others, as well as across the US are going nuts, and just hoping the next batch shows up on time.

Ontario isn't perfect, but other than the Atlantic provinces (who shut their borders) we're doing really well.
Get Toronto to follow the restrictions and we'd be in even better shape.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> You can't say 'all', but I think it's safe to assume the strains they find have infected at least 1 person.


Correct, not all are infecting people. Some no doubt were also taken from other animals and maybe some were taken from swabs off of surfaces.

Also good to point out that sequence testing varies significantly by country. The US has only sequenced ~0.3% of those infected were as the Britain has done ~7.4%. There is likely many more mutations around than those cataloged.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Nope, they said that's confidential information.


The Obviously 1 dose will be less effective then 2. The reason many have suggested delaying the 2nd dose is because it can do so much more for an unvaccinated person then it ever can do for the person who has already had exposure to the virus with one dose already. That we know.

We want to keep our facts on point before we declare one idea better then the other. The objective here is to save lives. Lowering infections only helps if it saves lives and nothing so far has been as effective in saving lives then a needle with some vaccine in it.

I have no opinion on what is the best way to vaccinate our society, I just wanted to clarify what we should be looking at for direction.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> The Obviously 1 dose will be less effective then 2. The reason many have suggested delaying the 2nd dose is because it can do so much more for an unvaccinated person then it ever can do for the person who has already had exposure to the virus with one dose already. That we know.
> 
> We want to keep our facts on point before we declare one idea better then the other. The objective here is to save lives. Lowering infections only helps if it saves lives and nothing so far has been as effective in saving lives then a needle with some vaccine in it.
> 
> I have no opinion on what is the best way to vaccinate our society, I just wanted to clarify what we should be looking at for direction.


The question is if low and short lived effectiveness of partial vaccination will slow/stop the spread as well as the more effective, and longer lasting full vaccination.

Short term you can argue and model it.
Longer term it's better to have the population that can be vaccinated at 95%ish vaccination rates.

It's important to note, at this time there is no vaccine approved for children.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Just so we are clear. I was commenting on the merits of the article posted, not about my view on the 1 dose vs 2 dose debate.

I will give my opinion on that, but beaver may need to bring the trash can back from the other thread because again I will not be able to prove my points. It is just my independent thinking.

At the beginning I thought 1 dose for many was a better direction then 2 doses for the few, since 1 dose indicated seriously improved survivability, but with less effectiveness. As for longevity of immunity, I don't believe we have any idea what difference 1 dose or 2 dose might make.

The problem, with 1 dose is that more people get infected. Now think about that. How do they know that. They test the vaccinated people. Did they test, everyone, every day? No. They either tested the ones who had symptoms or at specific intervals. Now you need to think about this. Does a vaccine prevent the ability for active virus to go up your nose and down your throat? Of course not. Can it prevent the virus from grabbing on to your cells and reproducing. It can do that. So what exactly is an infection? When they measure virus with a swab test and if that swab picks up virus, they say you have been infected. How in the world could a vaccine stop virus that went into your open nostrils and then ended up on a swab and was confirmed by a very precise test? It can't.

So anyone vaccinated can receive active virus. Since most people tested did not have it, but all could have obtained it, it must mean that the vaccine significantly increased how quickly the body neutralized it and therefore was rare to be found when those people were swabbed. It also must mean that most vaccinated people did not even show symptoms, but some did. Who did?

Most likely it was the people with the slowest immune responses to begin with. No I can't prove that. It is my guess. So to sum up. The reason I believe that the best route for us to go is to vaccinate everyone with 2 doses on schedule, is because the majority of people that I believe will be perfectly safe (<age 60) with 1 dose ARE NOT the people we are currently vaccinating. Those people and the people that treat them need to have any infection they may obtain, eliminated as quickly as our technology can provide. For the older (>age 80), to save their lives. For the medical and LTC workers, to eliminate their ability to infect other more vulnerable people. For example, doctors usually are asked to look at sick people. Those are the people the doctor cannot infect at that time. We must ensure that. I believe in that nursing home that one older women almost died.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Ontario is one of the few jurisdictions which is planning to strictly adhere to the vaccination schedule.
> Several others, as well as across the US are going nuts, and just hoping the next batch shows up on time.
> 
> Ontario isn't perfect, but other than the Atlantic provinces (who shut their borders) we're doing really well.
> Get Toronto to follow the restrictions and we'd be in even better shape.


Ontario is no longer holding back 2nd dose.









Ontario changes COVID-19 vaccination plans after slowing rollout


Province will stop holding second doses in reserve after it faced criticism for shutting down clinics over the holidays




www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Ontario is no longer holding back 2nd dose.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario changes COVID-19 vaccination plans after slowing rollout
> 
> 
> Province will stop holding second doses in reserve after it faced criticism for shutting down clinics over the holidays
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


Well personally, until we get a secure supply I think that's irresponsible.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I don't have any opinion on whether they should hold back the 2nd dose or use it and look hopefully to be resupplied. I do agree the latter is risky, but the main point I want to make is LTC residents, their staff and medical workers need to have 2 doses on schedule. How they do it is up to them.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> I don't have any opinion on whether they should hold back the 2nd dose or use it and look hopefully to be resupplied. I do agree the latter is risky, but the main point I want to make is LTC residents, their staff and medical workers need to have 2 doses on schedule. How they do it is up to them.


I agree, making sure that those who are getting vaccinated complete the cycle is very important.

Since it will take months or even years to vaccinate everyone, I'm concerned shortcuts might be a bad idea. 
I hope that this decision is based on some information that they have, as I don't consider any foreign COVID19 resource "secure".


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> I agree, making sure that those who are getting vaccinated complete the cycle is very important.
> 
> Since it will take months or even years to vaccinate everyone, I'm concerned shortcuts might be a bad idea.
> I hope that this decision is based on some information that they have, as I don't consider any foreign COVID19 resource "secure".





MrMatt said:


> Well personally, until we get a secure supply I think that's irresponsible.


My sense is they are quite confident in the supply at the Federal Level. My particular health unit in central Ontario has already diverted vials to harder hit areas of the province. My health unit ranks as the 2nd highest provider of vaccine.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> My sense is they are quite confident in the supply at the Federal Level. My particular health unit in central Ontario has already diverted vials to harder hit areas of the province. My health unit ranks as the 2nd highest provider of vaccine.


The ones who shipped 16 tonnes of PPE to China in February, leading to shortages here?
The ones who still haven't banned non-essential travel?

I don't trust their judgement.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> The ones who shipped 16 tonnes of PPE to China in February, leading to shortages here?
> The ones who still haven't banned non-essential travel?
> 
> I don't trust their judgement.


I keep seeing the travel issue brought up. While travel brought the virus here, it now accounts for very little transmission. Would you like to see Canadians denied entry or other measures? deny Canadians exiting? Not defending the position, just curious as to what others want to see done.

do they publish who is entering? citizens? PR? Foreigners? Keep in mind, that some citizens go back and forth everyday to work (transportation, logistics, health care). This inflates the numbers


----------



## sags

My wife was told today that she will receive the 2nd dose. The city vaccination center is no longer taking appointments until after those receiving the 1st dose are given the 2nd dose. She has a preset appointment for one week from now for the 2nd dose.

Some employees in retirement and LTC homes are already receiving vaccinations.

They were told that Pfizer won't ship any more doses if their protocol of 2 doses isn't followed. More doses are expected to arrive next week.

The vaccine does NOT protect against infection, even after the 2nd dose full vaccination. People still get infected and can spread the virus........hence they are told to observe the safety protocols (masks etc) after being fully vaccinated.

The vaccine gives the body immune system a quick start to kill the virus when the person gets infected and reduces the opportunity for severe symptoms.

If she was told wrong........and Ontario isn't giving the second dose to people, then there is obviously a continuing problem with public planning.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> I keep seeing the travel issue brought up. While travel brought the virus here, it now accounts for very little transmission. Would you like to see Canadians denied entry or other measures? deny Canadians exiting? Not defending the position, just curious as to what others want to see done.
> 
> do they publish who is entering? citizens? PR? Foreigners? Keep in mind, that some citizens go back and forth everyday to work (transportation, logistics, health care). This inflates the numbers


1. I want the borders closed to non-essential travel. We have politicians and others who are going on vacations, that should be stopped.
2. The 14 day quarantine should be enforced. 
3. Yes there is some essential travel impact, look at Windsor, which has a lot of essential travel (many Michigan hospitals employ Canadians)

For #1 & #2 the Federal government has been saying for almost a year that travel restrictions and quarantines are in place.
They're not, and they know they're not. I want the Federal government to stop lying, and simply do what they said they were going to do.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The vaccine does NOT protect against infection, even after the 2nd dose full vaccination. People still get infected and can spread the virus........hence they are told to observe the safety protocols (masks etc) after being fully vaccinated.
> 
> The vaccine gives the body immune system a quick start to kill the virus when the person gets infected and reduces the opportunity for severe symptoms.


That is exactly what I theorized. Nice to see I am not completely alone in my thinking, as well as the fact that they figured out, that with this issue, 2 doses is the only way we can go.


----------



## sags

Well Optsy........that is what she was told this morning. The government could change it today........follow the bouncing ball.

Why haven't manufacturers ramped up their production. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are both made in Belgium.

Maybe Europe and other countries are ahead of us because they are closer to the manufacturer.

We can't make vaccines in Canada or the US ? It should be a national security priority in the future to assist big pharma to locate production here.


----------



## sags

If a mandatory quarantine were enforced, we wouldn't have a "travel" problem.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Well Optsy........that is what she was told this morning. The government could change it today........follow the bouncing ball.
> 
> Why haven't manufacturers ramped up their production. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are both made in Belgium.
> 
> Maybe Europe and other countries are ahead of us because they are closer to the manufacturer.
> 
> We can't make vaccines in Canada or the US ? It should be a national security priority in the future to assist big pharma to locate production here.


Sure. I was just commenting on the idea that vaccines cannot protect against infection and therefore cannot eliminate ones ability to transmit the virus. If the vaccine is done right, it can simply "reduce the time" dramatically for how long you have an infection and correspondingly, how long you are infectious and how long any virus can remain in your body allowing it to enter other organs, etc. That is what the 2nd dose should do, as per my theory. It should simply speed up our immune response considerably.

Since those two considerations are less important to younger people (< age 60 for example), then the biggest benefit of the vaccine, which is keeping you alive, perhaps the younger people could live with only 1 dose. But for much older and all healthcare and LTC workers, 2 doses is absolutely crucial.


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> ... Why haven't manufacturers ramped up their production. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are both made in Belgium ...
> We can't make vaccines in Canada or the US ? It should be a national security priority in the future to assist big pharma to locate production here.


Do you have references for why Catalent, who Moderna contracted with stopped their vaccine production in their Bloomington, Indiana facility?








Bloomington’s Catalent plays key role in producing Moderna vaccine


Catalent hopes to increase its production to 1 million doses a day.




www.wthr.com





Pfizer talked about manufacturing in Maryland, Missouri and Wisconsin so it seems weird they'd switch to only Belgium.


Cheers


----------



## sags

Are those plants operational ? Are they going to distribute vaccines outside the US ?


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> My sense is they are quite confident in the supply at the Federal Level. My particular health unit in central Ontario has already diverted vials to harder hit areas of the province. My health unit ranks as the 2nd highest provider of vaccine.





MrMatt said:


> I don't trust their judgement.











Canada's coming month of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine shipments will be reduced by half


Over the next month Canada will be experiencing a 'temporary' delay in Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine shipments due to the pharmaceutical giant's expansion plans at its European manufacturing facility, with the shortage resulting in an average of 50 per cent of coming doses delayed each week.




www.ctvnews.ca





Less than 24 hours after you suggest they're "confident in the supply", the news reports supply disruptions. << This is why I have no confidence in them. They keep dropping the ball.

I stand by my original (and unpopular) position that we should ensure we properly administer the vaccine to all people, and that includes reserving vaccine to administer the second dose in accordance with the manufacturer recommended and Health Canada approved vaccination schedule.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Canada's coming month of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine shipments will be reduced by half
> 
> 
> Over the next month Canada will be experiencing a 'temporary' delay in Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine shipments due to the pharmaceutical giant's expansion plans at its European manufacturing facility, with the shortage resulting in an average of 50 per cent of coming doses delayed each week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Less than 24 hours after you suggest they're "confident in the supply", the news reports supply disruptions. << This is why I have no confidence in them. They keep dropping the ball.
> 
> I stand by my original (and unpopular) position that we should ensure we properly administer the vaccine to all people, and that includes reserving vaccine to administer the second dose in accordance with the manufacturer recommended and Health Canada approved vaccination schedule.


Did the Feds drop the ball here or Pfizer?


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Did the Feds drop the ball here or Pfizer?


Both.

1. Pfizer for having a supply disruption.
2. For the Feds not properly managing risk.

They should be planning and anticipating supply disruptions, and should not be sending the message that they are "confident" without doing their due diligence that the supply chain is secure and stable. 
I sure hope that our provincial leaders will realize that they can't trust the federal government to do what they claim to be doing.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Then what do you suggest the rest of us do in the meantime? Start plotting the direction of our votes?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Then what do you suggest the rest of us do in the meantime? Start plotting the direction of our votes?


That's one, also contact your local MP and the various ministers office and shadow cabinet on how they're mishandling these issues.

The one thing that actually scares Trudeau is that he might lose the next election. He lost the popular vote in 2019.

As low as my opinion of the Trudeau Liberals is, they recognize that they can't ignore the concerns of voters and expect to win the next election. If they feel these are potential election issues, they'll address them, or at least pretend to. (like pretending to close the borders)
Hopefully people will have enough of the Liberal lies, but even if we can just get them to course correct a bit, it's an improvement.


----------



## kcowan2000

I voted for Trudeau but I have been conditioned by his lies and ineptitude/missteps to have very low expectations for anything he takes on.


----------



## Money172375

US soon to require negative test before flying to US and quarantine upon arrival.


----------



## Money172375

Matt, this is for you...









Justin Trudeau warns tougher travel restrictions are on the horizon, and Canadians could be stranded


Ottawa is considering a requirement that people returning to Canada quarantine in a hotel at their own expense for 14 days to limit the spread of COVID-19.




www.thestar.com





should I be happy if this happens to my family who are away right now?


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Matt, this is for you...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Justin Trudeau warns tougher travel restrictions are on the horizon, and Canadians could be stranded
> 
> 
> Ottawa is considering a requirement that people returning to Canada quarantine in a hotel at their own expense for 14 days to limit the spread of COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thestar.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> should I be happy if this happens to my family who are away right now?


If they were dumb enough to leave..
This has been going on for a year now, I really have no patience for people who "get stuck"


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> Matt, this is for you...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Justin Trudeau warns tougher travel restrictions are on the horizon, and Canadians could be stranded
> 
> 
> Ottawa is considering a requirement that people returning to Canada quarantine in a hotel at their own expense for 14 days to limit the spread of COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thestar.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> should I be happy if this happens to my family who are away right now?


About time. It has been clear we should do this for months now. I would say zero grace period on the 'own expense' part if they left the country in the past 90 days.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> should I be happy if this happens to my family who are away right now?





MrMatt said:


> This has been going on for a year now, I really have no patience for people who "get stuck"


Yeah, I think we should all be happy for more travel restrictions that keep us safe, and slow the spread.

Nobody will really get stuck anyway. Getting a COVID test, or having to stay in a quarantine hotel are very minor inconveniences in the big scheme of things.

A "major inconvenience" during a pandemic would be something like being hospitalized, admitted to the ICU, or croaking.


----------



## kcowan2000

The latest restrictions make it impossible for front line workers to take a warm holiday. You would think if they pass the test and get on the plane Covid-free, they could avoid the 14 day isolation period at this end. It works against service workers who follow all the rules.


----------



## MrMatt

kcowan2000 said:


> The latest restrictions make it impossible for front line workers to take a warm holiday. You would think if they pass the test and get on the plane Covid-free, they could avoid the 14 day isolation period at this end. It works against service workers who follow all the rules.


Nobody should be taking "warm holidays"


----------



## sags

Two problems with the response to the pandemic.

The testing is unreliable and our masks are insufficient to protect the wearer.

If we address both of those problems, people should be able to travel safely without spreading the virus.


----------



## sags

Germany is now requiring the wearing of N95 masks in public. Not paper masks, cloth masks, or scarves........an N95 mask.

The US is ramping up production of N95 masks under the Emergency Act. Experts say if everyone wore an N95 mask it would stop the pandemic.

In Canada, we are wearing paper masks made in China or somewhere else. Many of those offer less than 25% protection to the wearer.

We need to smarten up.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Germany is now requiring the wearing of N95 masks in public. Not paper masks, cloth masks, or scarves........an N95 mask.
> 
> The US is ramping up production of N95 masks under the Emergency Act.* Experts say if everyone wore an N95 mask it would stop the pandemic.*
> 
> In Canada, we are wearing paper masks made in China or somewhere else. Many of those offer less than 25% protection to the wearer.
> 
> We need to smarten up.


 ... LOL ... where do we (the general public) buy an N95 mask? The "N95" made by 3M of USA, using Canadian materials.


----------



## sags

GM is producing 10 million surgical masks in Oshawa at cost. Why not N95 masks ? I suspect the reason is the cost to the government.


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> GM is producing 10 million surgical masks in Oshawa at cost. Why not N95 masks ? I suspect the reason is the cost to the government.


I had an MRI this week. They made me change my mask to one of their surgical masks which was thrown away afterwards. Reason being that mine might have metal parts. It didn't. They do ask about metal parts in your body.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> In Canada, we are wearing paper masks made in China or somewhere else. Many of those offer less than 25% protection to the wearer.
> 
> We need to smarten up.


Source?
I have not seen a single paper mask in public.

We should smarten up, particularly with people, like sags, pushing disinformation, and unfounded nonsense.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Looks like Colchicine, which is a drug for gout, seems to have some proven effectiveness at reducing the need for a ventilation tube to be put into a Covid infected person, and consequently, keeping them above ground through the ordeal.









Quebec researchers say they have found an effective drug to fight COVID-19


A team of researchers from the Montreal Heart Institute believes they have found an effective weapon against COVID-19: colchicine, an oral tablet already known and used for other diseases.



montreal.ctvnews.ca


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Experts say if everyone wore an N95 mask it would stop the pandemic.


Source?
or is this another bit of COVID misinformation?


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Source?
> or is this another bit of COVID misinformation?


Harvard Dr. Via CNN 









The face mask that could end the pandemic | CNN


Here's the face mask that could end the coronavirus pandemic.




www.cnn.com


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Germany is now requiring the wearing of N95 masks in public. Not paper masks, cloth masks, or scarves........an N95 mask.


This is interesting. I had not heard about this.









Germany Mandates Medical-Grade Masks


Germany’s strict requirements are provoking discussions of enacting similar measures throughout Europe.




www.forbes.com





Very interesting! Copying & pasting the content below

*Germans will be mandated to wear either single-use filtering facepiece respirator (FFP) surgical masks or FFP-2 masks, such as N95s.*


Merkel said the threat of the U.K coronavirus variant, known as B.1.1.7., is the primary reason for the intensified regulations.
Germany is the first major European nation to require medical-grade protection, with Austria also set to introduce the same measures.
Over the past few days, France’s government has acknowledged they are considering a similar mandate, with the nation’s high council for public health declaring that many cloth masks do not guarantee protection against the new variants.

It should be noted that while basic single layer "cloth masks" don't offer much protection, those multi-layered surgical type masks DO appear to. The Chinese made disposable masks we're getting are not all garbage. Many of them are triple, some even quadruple layered synthetic.


----------



## james4beach

Here's what I overheard, while walking through a park in BC today.

A young woman had started talking with a man. She was saying: "I'm from Toronto... I couldn't take the lockdown anymore, so I flew over here to hang out". The man responded: "No way! *I'm from Toronto too*. Scarborough. I also couldn't take the lockdown".

My god... how many people in my city are tourists from Toronto? Think any of them might be asymptomatic carriers? [YES]

We've got to put an end to this stupidity and recklessness.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Those are known as moronic tourists.


----------



## Money172375

Travel has led to a massive outbreak at a Barrie LTC facility. All the residents and half the staff are infected. A staff member lives with someone who travelled. Apparently they quarantied upon return but it wasn’t enough. 

I’m so upset by this. I have Family who are travelling as we speak. agh!


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Here's what I overheard, while walking through a park in BC today.
> 
> A young woman had started talking with a man. She was saying: "I'm from Toronto... I couldn't take the lockdown anymore, so I flew over here to hang out". The man responded: "No way! *I'm from Toronto too*. Scarborough. I also couldn't take the lockdown".
> 
> My god... how many people in my city are tourists from Toronto? Think any of them might be asymptomatic carriers? [YES]
> 
> We've got to put an end to this stupidity and recklessness.


Good luck, Toronto is too powerful.

The Federal government funds municipal infrastructure in Toronto FFS.
Do you think they'll really clamp down on those voters?


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> Travel has led to a massive outbreak at a Barrie LTC facility. All the residents and half the staff are infected. A staff member lives with someone who travelled. Apparently they quarantied upon return but it wasn’t enough.


 ... I gather you're talking about this case where the latest report indicated the superspreader was described as being asymptomatic. However, an earlier report of this outbreak (2nd quote below, a link within this link) indicated she eventually developed symptoms but it was too late to prevent a spread.

'I’m very concerned about the potential for its spread', UK COVID-19 variant detected at Barrie long-term care home



> _On Thursday, SMDHU said a worker at the home who had close contact with someone who travelled abroad was one of the first to be suspected of carrying the variant into the home.
> 
> The worker followed all precautions, and was tested regularly, but did not initially show symptoms.
> 
> Gardner said the worker did not violate the Quarantine Act or any recommendations laid out by the government.
> 
> "The exposure in question did not take place out in the community and the staff member who became a case at the very beginning did not have symptoms when they attended work. They were asymptomatic when they were tested routinely," he said._


'This has to be the variant,' Barrie, Ont. long-term care home saw 55 COVID-19 cases in 2 days



> ...
> _A worker who had close contact with someone who travelled abroad was one of the first to be suspected of carrying a highly contagious coronavirus variant into Barrie’s Roberta Place long-term care home, health officials said Thursday.
> 
> The worker followed all precautions, was tested regularly, but did not initially show symptoms.
> 
> She went home to self-isolate immediately after showing symptoms, but it was too late_


.

I think this LTC is going to be written off with catastrophic casualties. This outbreak is like a run-away train ... only worst with multiple variants of the virus. 



> I’m so upset by this. I have Family who are travelling as we speak. agh!


 ... just tell them to physically stay away! For yours and everybody else's sake.


----------



## bgc_fan

Money172375 said:


> Travel has led to a massive outbreak at a Barrie LTC facility. All the residents and half the staff are infected. A staff member lives with someone who travelled. Apparently they quarantied upon return but it wasn’t enough.
> 
> I’m so upset by this. I have Family who are travelling as we speak. agh!


And this is why we can't have nice things. In other countries that take this seriously quarantine travelers in hotels away from others upon return to their country, sometimes at their own expense. But here, we are fighting with covid deniers who see that as covid concentration camps.

But, the other problem we have is our proximity to the US and the ties that we have with it. Think about the health care workers who live in Canada and work in Detroit. By all rights, they should be isolated from everyone since last year, but could you imagine the outcry we would get in the news about the government forcing families to live apart?


----------



## bgc_fan

Double post


----------



## bgc_fan

Triple post. Using a tablet doesn't work very well.


----------



## kcowan2000

james4beach said:


> Here's what I overheard, while walking through a park in BC today.
> 
> A young woman had started talking with a man. She was saying: "I'm from Toronto... I couldn't take the lockdown anymore, so I flew over here to hang out". The man responded: "No way! *I'm from Toronto too*. Scarborough. I also couldn't take the lockdown".
> 
> My god... how many people in my city are tourists from Toronto? Think any of them might be asymptomatic carriers? [YES]
> 
> We've got to put an end to this stupidity and recklessness.


The premier is considering preventing non-essential travel from Canada but the ski industry is depending on it. Tough choices!


----------



## Money172375

kcowan2000 said:


> The premier is considering preventing non-essential travel from Canada but the ski industry is depending on it. Tough choices!


You can shut down the slopes like in Ontario. Apparently it’s the only jurisdiction in N.A. To close ski hills.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Good luck, Toronto is too powerful.
> 
> The Federal government funds municipal infrastructure in Toronto FFS.
> Do you think they'll really clamp down on those voters?


Oh please, feds pay for infrastructure everywhere.


----------



## sags

Trudeau is pandering to the same Toronto voters who elected PC Doug Ford ?

Blame should be attributed to politicians who could have done something to make a difference but chose not to due to ideology, indifference or incompetence.

They should be held responsible for their decisions, actions or refusal to act.

To blame Trudeau for Pfizer's manufacturing decisions serves no useful purpose. He doesn't have the power to change what he doesn't control.

All Canadians want all the Pfizer vaccine we can get......but yelling at a Pfizer executive over the phone isn't likely to help the situation.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> To blame Trudeau for Pfizer's manufacturing decisions serves no useful purpose. He doesn't have the power to change what he doesn't control.


Nobody is suggesting that.
I am blaming him for saying they're confident in the supply, when they should not have been.

I am saying he should close the borders, which he STILL hasn't done.

I'm very specific about what I blame Trudeau for, his bad decisions, his lies, and his incompetence.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Nobody is suggesting that.
> I am blaming him for saying they're confident in the supply, when they should not have been.
> 
> I am saying he should close the borders, which he STILL hasn't done.
> 
> I'm very specific about what I blame Trudeau for, his bad decisions, his lies, and his incompetence.


I suspect tougher border measures are coming. Need to curtail the Inevitable March break travel. The new measures of requiring a test before boarding a flight is already leading to cancellations. If they bring in mandatory hotel-stays, it will also have a big deterrent.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Nobody is suggesting that.
> I am blaming him for saying they're confident in the supply, when they should not have been.
> 
> I am saying he should close the borders, which he STILL hasn't done.
> 
> *I'm very specific about what I blame Trudeau for, his bad decisions, his lies, and his incompetence.*


 .. the saddest part (if not the most pizzing thing about (NA) governments) are us taxpayers paying royally for the equally inept bloated side-minions serving the King Bozo clown. Talk about ineptness abound being produced from the same roll of toilet paper.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I am saying he should close the borders, which he STILL hasn't done.


I don't think it would be constitutional (or necessary) to deny entry to Canadians.


----------



## sags

The new UK variance has put the UK on the edge of a collapse of their health care system.

It has created a "tsunami" of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. France and Germany are also seeing their infections increase dramatically due to the variant.

One hospital in Berlin is under quarantine because of the variant. France and Germany are talking about total lock downs to stop the rapid spread.

One expert said the virus is mutating in weeks and months........where they normally expect it to mutate in years. This virus is "different".

Forget a travel ban. We need to implement a total lock down nationally........now, while we can still have a chance to slow the spread of the variant.

P.S.......healthcare systems reported to be on the verge of collapse.....Japan, Syria, Lebanon, UK, France, Germany, and more.


----------



## sags

Ontario has changed their vaccination plans again.

Now they want to vaccinate all the residents in LTC and retirement homes, instead of the workers in the homes.

That doesn't make much sense to me as the residents aren't leaving the residences and bringing in the infections. It is the workers who bring it in.

Also, if the workers get sick and can't work.......who will replace them at the homes ? There are already labor shortages in the homes.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Ontario has changed their vaccination plans again.
> 
> Now they want to vaccinate all the residents in LTC and retirement homes, instead of the workers in the homes.
> 
> That doesn't make much sense to me as the residents aren't leaving the residences and bringing in the infections. It is the workers who bring it in.
> 
> Also, if the workers get sick and can't work.......who will replace them at the homes ? There are already labor shortages in the homes.


If there are no outbreaks in homes, LTC workers are at no greater risk than anyone else. Really, we're talking about a matter of weeks here, anyway, as LTC staff will be high in the priority sequence.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Ontario has changed their vaccination plans again.
> 
> Now they want to vaccinate all the residents in LTC and retirement homes, instead of the workers in the homes.
> 
> That doesn't make much sense to me as the residents aren't leaving the residences and bringing in the infections. It is the workers who bring it in.
> 
> Also, if the workers get sick and can't work.......who will replace them at the homes ? There are already labor shortages in the homes.


It's the LTC residents that do most of the dying. Those residents need the protection so much more. I agree the workers are definitely next and they bare a tremendous risk but if we can stop the infections of the residents it cannot help but improve the safety of the workers.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> The new UK variance has put the UK on the edge of a collapse of their health care system.
> 
> It has created a "tsunami" of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. France and Germany are also seeing their infections increase dramatically due to the variant.
> 
> One hospital in Berlin is under quarantine because of the variant. France and Germany are talking about total lock downs to stop the rapid spread.
> 
> One expert said the virus is mutating in weeks and months........where they normally expect it to mutate in years. This virus is "different".
> 
> Forget a travel ban. We need to implement a total lock down nationally........now, while we can still have a chance to slow the spread of the variant.
> 
> P.S.......healthcare systems reported to be on the verge of collapse.....Japan, Syria, Lebanon, UK, France, Germany, and more.


Just to temper some of the panic here, UK is well off its peak daily cases (at 30k/day vs 60k in Dec), so their containment measures have gotten R below 1. France is well off its peak and doesn't show signs of increasing. Germany is quite noisy, but seems to be at a low ebb at the moment.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Sags. If I recall you mentioned that your wife received her initial vaccination a while back. Are you saying that they are planning on NOT giving her the 2nd dose until all the residents are vaccinated...or... are you saying they are NOT giving other workers their 1st dose until the residents are vaccinated?


----------



## sags

My wife got her second vaccination on the second last day they were giving them.

The are no longer giving workers the first or second dose.

Last week 2 employees in the home tested positive.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I don't think it would be constitutional (or necessary) to deny entry to Canadians.


Nothing stops reasonable restrictions during an emergency.
Also I'm just asking to enforce the quarantine restrictions.

It is ridiculous that you can fly over the border, but can't take the same trip by car.

My point is that they've been falsely claiming to have banned non-essential travel, and we ALL know that is a flat out lie.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Nothing stops reasonable restrictions during an emergency.
> Also I'm just asking to enforce the quarantine restrictions.
> 
> It is ridiculous that you can fly over the border, but can't take the same trip by car.
> 
> My point is that they've been falsely claiming to have banned non-essential travel, and we ALL know that is a flat out lie.


I'm all for requiring mandatory 2 week quarantine at own expense in an isolation hotel. That is legal. But we can't fully close the border, particularly to Canadians looking to enter.


----------



## MrMatt

The question with Triage and limited allocations is who gets the treatment.

For COVID19, they are trying to determine who's most likely to die, and treating them first.

It's an interesting ethical dilemma
Do you treat those most at risk?
Or do you treat those who are choosing to put themselves at risk to save lives?

It's a tough one, but when you consider the dramatic difference in fatalities, I think vaccinating the most vulnerable makes the most sense, particularly considering our inability to stop transmission.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I'm all for requiring mandatory 2 week quarantine at own expense in an isolation hotel. That is legal. But we can't fully close the border, particularly to Canadians looking to enter.


I'm not saying we should, but we absolutely can.
You do not have an absolute right to enter the country. All rights in Canada are subject to reasonable limitations.
If you took off on vacation, you deserve to be stuck. 


I actually think that the Government should have had mandatory and monitored quarantines from the beginning.


----------



## sags

Moderna has announced they are developing a "booster shot" to deal with the new virus variants.









Moderna making booster shot to fight Covid-19 variants


New strains of the coronavirus have emerged in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.




www.politico.com


----------



## bgc_fan

Not that it affects Canada's pre-orders, but Merck has discontinued their vaccine research as the phase I clinical trials weren't too promising. No ill-reactions, just not as effective.








Drugmaker Merck discontinues two Covid-19 vaccine candidates


The decision followed a review of findings from Phase 1 clinical studies for the vaccine candidates.




www.nbcnews.com


----------



## andrewf

I know a lot of people criticized how long it took to test the vaccines, but this is why--never mind the risk of side effects being higher than necessary.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> My wife got her second vaccination on the second last day they were giving them.
> 
> The are no longer giving workers the first or second dose.
> 
> Last week 2 employees in the home tested positive.


How is your wife feeling after the vaccination?


----------



## sags

She feels fine......just a bit of a sore arm from the shot. From others she talked to it was the same for them.

The question now is if it works. By the way, she is 74 and in incredible health. I get tired out watching her.......LOL.

She gets tired from all the days at work where she has to wear a gown, mask, face shield, gloves, all day. I get tired of being alone all the time.

She gets home at 4 pm and is in bed by 6 pm. She took this job as a part time gig for something to do. It would normally pay her $8,000 a year tops.

Last year she earned $42,000. That shows how many "extra" shifts and hours she worked.

The company also gives her gift cards.......$100 this year already, for all the work she does for them......works call ins etc...........

But she is getting worn out. It is sad they are depending on a 74 year old so much, but nobody wants the job and the younger ones are always "unavailable" .

Crazy........that she is working all these hours she doesn't want and other people are struggling to pay for food, but we are helping out people we know.

She does it because she says.........there is nobody else to do it. She really likes the residents and company. It is like a family in there.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> But she is getting worn out. It is sad they are depending on a 74 year old so much, but nobody wants the job and the younger ones are always "unavailable" .
> 
> Crazy........that she is working all these hours she doesn't want and other people are struggling to pay for food, but we are helping out people we know.
> 
> She does it because she says.........there is nobody else to do it. She really likes the residents and company. It is like a family in there.


There are lots of other people out there.
They just don't want to do the job.

That's the problem, we have lots of unemployed people, they'd just rather sit on government handouts than work.
Imagine if we had UBI, people would be even pickier with what jobs they'd be willing to do.


----------



## bgc_fan

Looks like a new Canadian COVID vaccine is starting clinical trials based on mRNA technology: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-providence-1.5887613
Won't be until next year when they get production going assuming that clinical trials are completed, but it'll be nice to have for future boosters, or other epidemics. Of course, that's assuming that Canadians are all vaccinated by the end of this year. At any case, having a domestic supply of vaccines is always good.

Note that they were researching cancer vaccines, so that's probably why they were already familiar with mRNA delivery.


----------



## MrMatt

Now all we need is a vaccine for children


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> She feels fine......just a bit of a sore arm from the shot. From others she talked to it was the same for them.
> 
> The question now is if it works. By the way, she is 74 and in incredible health. I get tired out watching her.......LOL.
> 
> She gets tired from all the days at work where she has to wear a gown, mask, face shield, gloves, all day. I get tired of being alone all the time.
> 
> She gets home at 4 pm and is in bed by 6 pm. She took this job as a part time gig for something to do. It would normally pay her $8,000 a year tops.
> 
> Last year she earned $42,000. That shows how many "extra" shifts and hours she worked.
> 
> The company also gives her gift cards.......$100 this year already, for all the work she does for them......works call ins etc...........
> 
> *But she is getting worn out. It is sad they are depending on a 74 year old so much, but nobody wants the job and the younger ones are always "unavailable" .*
> 
> Crazy........that she is working all these hours she doesn't want and other people are struggling to pay for food, but we are helping out people we know.
> 
> *She does it because she says.........there is nobody else to do it. She really likes the residents and company. It is like a family in there.*


 ... your wife is a rarity these days. A real life (common-folk) hero I say.

Obviously, she's not doing it for the money and while I highly commend her for that, she has to think of herself (ie. not exhaust herself out) before she can continue taking care of others. Selfless. 

Reading your post here gave me tears in my eyes.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Looks like a new Canadian COVID vaccine is starting clinical trials based on mRNA technology: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-providence-1.5887613
> Won't be until next year when they get production going assuming that clinical trials are completed, but it'll be nice to have for future boosters, or other epidemics. Of course, that's assuming that Canadians are all vaccinated by the end of this year. At any case, having a domestic supply of vaccines is always good.
> 
> Note that they were researching cancer vaccines, so that's probably why they were already familiar with mRNA delivery.


Developing a vaccine without manufacturing capability in Canada is a complete waste of time. I believe Pfizer and/or Moderna will let us make their vaccine in Canada if we pay them a royalty. 

Manufacturing capability is what Canada should be focused on, not developing the vaccine itself. That we can work on for the next pandemic.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Developing a vaccine without manufacturing capability in Canada is a complete waste of time. I believe Pfizer and/or Moderna will let us make their vaccine in Canada if we pay them a royalty.
> 
> Manufacturing capability is what Canada should be focused on, not developing the vaccine itself. That we can work on for the next pandemic.


Perhaps you should actually read the story because you'd know that they bought a site in Calgary to set up their manufacturing.


----------



## sags

Vaccine research and production, PPE research and production, is the tip of the spear now.

Many corporations are re-considering the security of their supply chains and wondering if they should "bring the work" home again.

We not only shipped out manufacturing to offshore countries, we also shipped out the engineering, equipment, suppliers and everything else with it.

COVID made companies think about their own businesses, especially for essential items.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Perhaps you should actually read the story because you'd know that they bought a site in Calgary to set up their manufacturing.


I read that. I am just saying waiting to run a human trial is what I am suggesting is a waste of time. Just focus on getting the manufacturing up to speed. We have already invented the vaccine.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> I read that. I am just saying waiting to run a human trial is what I am suggesting is a waste of time. Just focus on getting the manufacturing up to speed. We have already invented the vaccine.


Given that they are building it out now, I'd say they aren't waiting. You do realize construction does take time right? Made-in-Canada COVID vaccine to be manufactured in Calgary; clinical trials have now begun


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Vaccine research and production, PPE research and production, is the tip of the spear now.
> 
> Many corporations are re-considering the security of their supply chains and wondering if they should "bring the work" home again.
> 
> We not only shipped out manufacturing to offshore countries, we also shipped out the engineering, equipment, suppliers and everything else with it.
> 
> *COVID made companies think about their own businesses, especially for essential items.*


 ... thinking is just about it as I don't think the "actuality" is going to happen (at least for the next 50 years unless there is an immediate reversion catalyst) for reasons 1. companies (CEOs) are continuously thinking of "their own" bottomlines, 2. always in search of "cheaper" labour, and 3. the younger generations ain't interested in getting these industries where they need to rack their brains and use their hands actually.


----------



## Plugging Along

OptsyEagle said:


> I read that. I am just saying waiting to run a human trial is what I am suggesting is a waste of time. Just focus on getting the manufacturing up to speed. We have already invented the vaccine.


I definitely don't think it's a waste of time. These companies are home grown to Canada. They are saying their results are similar to mondena and pftizer, I think they will be fast to get the Calgary facility up and running. It's really just a way to mitigate risks. I believe this company will be less likely to delay vaccinations to Canadians.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I suppose they can do both. I just wanted to point out that at this time manufacturing is our problem, not vaccine development. That was last years issue. This year it is all manufacturing.


----------



## robfordlives

Agreed this made in Canada is a waste of time. When will trials be over? Fall of this year. Trudeau says all Canadians who want to will be vaccinated by then. Agreed with other poster that focus should be on building capacity. Same problem in the US. Biden's latest package has $40Billion on COVID but not one penny being spent on increasing capacity. It would only cost $200Million to build a facility that could produce hundreds of thousands of vials licensed from existing vaccines


----------



## MrMatt

robfordlives said:


> Agreed this made in Canada is a waste of time. When will trials be over? Fall of this year. Trudeau says all Canadians who want to will be vaccinated by then. Agreed with other poster that focus should be on building capacity. Same problem in the US. Biden's latest package has $40Billion on COVID but not one penny being spent on increasing capacity. It would only cost $200Million to build a facility that could produce hundreds of thousands of vials licensed from existing vaccines


Yeah, well Trudeau is likely lying, or simply not aware that it is nearly impossible to have all Canadians vaccinated by the fall.
They're not even expecting to have a childrens vaccine available until the summer or fall. 

I have as much faith in Trudeaus confidence of vaccinating everyone by the fall as in his confidence that the vaccine supply is secure and reliable.


----------



## Money172375

Pfizer wants Canada to get 6 doses, not 5 out of each vial of vaccine. Requires a special Syringe. This is in order for Pfizer to be able to meet its commitment of doses. They have no commitment to number of vials delivered, just a commitment to deliver a number of doses.
We currently don’t have enough of the special syringes.









Pfizer pushes Health Canada to stretch vaccine doses per vial as demand mounts - National | Globalnews.ca


Pfizer has asked Health Canada to take a look at whether it can consistently extract six doses from each coronavirus vaccine vial, a move that could affect Canada's deliveries.




globalnews.ca


----------



## sags

Pfizer is doing the same in the US and wants to charge more per vial.


----------



## sags

Whoopsie.........Ontario announces they only fully vaccinated 50% of the numbers they said. It is actually about 48,000 fully vaccinated so far.

Apparently, Ford decided to use the reserve held for the second vaccinations to vaccinate more with the 1st shot.

Bad idea, as some of those with a first vaccination are already beyond the recommended period for a second dose.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Pfizer is doing the same in the US and wants to charge more per vial.


Pfizer, these days, could make Martin Shkreli look like a guy ready for sainthood. 


For anyone who does not know who Martin Shkreli was:



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2015/09/22/turing-ceo-martin-shkreli-explains-that-4000-percent-drug-price-hike-is-altruistic-not-greedy/


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Whoopsie.........Ontario announces they only fully vaccinated 50% of the numbers they said. It is actually about 48,000 fully vaccinated so far.
> 
> Apparently, Ford decided to use the reserve held for the second vaccinations to vaccinate more with the 1st shot.
> 
> Bad idea, as some of those with a first vaccination are already beyond the recommended period for a second dose.


I really wish we could get a uniform way of knowing if we are talking about doses administered or people fully vaccinated with both shots. I always assume they are talking about shots but personally, I really care more for how many people are fully protected.

They do it the wrong way to get more credit for their efforts but at the end of the day they are just creating confusion. I wish they would stop it.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> I really wish we could get a uniform way of knowing if we are talking about doses administered or people fully vaccinated with both shots. I always assume they are talking about shots but personally, I really care more for how many people are fully protected.
> 
> They do it the wrong way to get more credit for their efforts but at the end of the day they are just creating confusion. I wish they would stop it.


In several jurisdictions,they're not ensuring people get their second dose on time.
How do you count that?
"used two doses, but we didn't do it right, so we don't know if they're really vaccinated or not"


----------



## bgc_fan

Looks like some interesting changes: Canadian government to force incoming travellers into hotels for quarantine

However, even though they say that only Canadian citizens and permanent residents could travel to Canada since March, its obvious that it isn't the case. I.e. Americans "traveling" to Alaska, truckers bringing goods to and from the USA. Unless these are also addressed, there's always going to be some risk of something getting through the border. But at least it will address the snowbirds returning from the USA.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Looks like some interesting changes: Canadian government to force incoming travellers into hotels for quarantine
> 
> However, even though they say that only Canadian citizens and permanent residents could travel to Canada since March, its obvious that it isn't the case. I.e. Americans "traveling" to Alaska, truckers bringing goods to and from the USA. Unless these are also addressed, there's always going to be some risk of something getting through the border. But at least it will address the snowbirds returning from the USA.


Truckers moving product is essential.
I'm even willing to accept people travelling through, as long as they respect the rules and isolate.

However, it's the people going on vacations that pisses me off.


----------



## andrewf

Essential workers crossing the border is something we have to live with. 

I don't like snowbirds being able to drive across so easily. This seems like the bare minimum.


----------



## Money172375

Maclean’s posted this study which ranks Canada near the bottom in covid response. I’m having trouble understanding it given our deaths/cases seem lower per capital than most large developed countries. What am I missing? Other than a poor vaccine rollout thus far?

the Americas are the worst in the world.






Covid Performance - Lowy Institute







interactives.lowyinstitute.org


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> Maclean’s posted this study which ranks Canada near the bottom in covid response


Bloomberg has a global assessment of covid response that considers many factors, everything from current disease rate, to vaccine access, vaccination delivery, and lockdown severity.

Bloomberg COVID Resilience Ranking

On Bloomberg's ranking at January 25, Canada is pretty high up the list at #13 out of 53. This is a good ranking. We are very far above the U.K., U.S., Germany.

It should be noted that the top countries (New Zealand, Singapore, Australia, Taiwan) have not vaccinated their populations at all. They just have very low transmission rates, hardly anyone is catching it.

Pasting a screen shot, but the bottom countries are cut off.


----------



## james4beach

@Money172375 , I looked at your link and I think I know the difference. The Lowy Institute ranking only looks at current measures of disease spread (deaths, cases, test rates). The Bloomberg ranking, which I posted above with the graphic, also includes those but adds in several more metrics such as:

access to vaccines
number of doses given so far
lockdown severity
disruption to mobility
healthcare availability (we're one of the top in the world)
So between these two, I'd take the Bloomberg ranking more seriously as there are far more inputs considered.

I am shocked by how badly Germany and Sweden are ranked, though. I think with Sweden there were serious government missteps such as the belief that herd immunity would work.


----------



## sags

Schools open tomorrow amid a shortage of school bus drivers.

The local health agency says they will stop announcing any school outbreaks effective tomorrow.

They will only publish data filtered and provided by the Ontario government.

I guess they don't want the public to know if there are outbreaks.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The local health agency says they will stop announcing any school outbreaks effective tomorrow.
> 
> They will only publish data filtered and provided by the Ontario government.
> 
> I guess they don't want the public to know if there are outbreaks.


Source?
That's quite a direction change. As useless as my MPP is, I'd be forwarding her my concerns.

Updated, the Province today published the schools with cases.


https://www.ontario.ca/page/covid-19-cases-schools-and-child-care-centres




I think this is likely more of an attempt to have a single authoritative reporting system.
Lots of questions when different data from different sources conflicts, r


----------



## sags

People don't want to have to pore through a complicated website to learn about infections at their kid's schools.

They want daily updates from their local health authority, where reporters can ask specific questions about local school and nursing home outbreaks.

In any event, the likely outcome will be posters on the London sub-Reddit will post updated information.


----------



## james4beach

This man was running an illegal nightclub in his condo. I've heard of similar illegal (secret) nightclubs in Winnipeg.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...ightclub-health-orders-bail-charges-1.5896303

What a history this guy has. Worked at Investors Group, forged client signatures, and now ... running an illegal nightclub in his condo, with 77 people, no masks. In other reporting I read about 100+ people. Asymptomatic disease spread seems almost certain, at events like this.

And how many parties did he throw? Clearly more than 2 events, and he probably made a lot of money off it as well.

With multiple events of that size, spreading COVID is almost a certainty. An average of $220 fine per person really is not enough of a deterrent for the partygoers. I hope they push for a jail sentence for this guy.

The $25,000 fine isn't nearly enough. He could have easily made a few thousand bucks from each party. Minimum fine has to be 10x as large.

This a*hole was doing this in my neighbourhood. I'm not happy about it; directly puts me in danger.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> People don't want to have to pore through a complicated website to learn about infections at their kid's schools.
> 
> They want daily updates from their local health authority, where reporters can ask specific questions about local school and nursing home outbreaks.
> 
> In any event, the likely outcome will be posters on the London sub-Reddit will post updated information.


They don't have to.
The school sends out an email if there is a case.

Also you didn't back up your claim that the health unit is not announcing it in the first place.
In fact yesterday the health unit made the exact opposite claim you did here.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1355992262057062401

Why do you seem so intent on pushing false information?


----------



## sags

Read the tweets again.

They shut down to download their local data to the Ontario government database and now all they do is link to the Ontario government data.

On the first day schools opened there was an infection case in a local school.


----------



## bgc_fan

Some good news. But approval of the Novavax vaccine is months away and construction is still ongoing. 








Canada signs deal to produce Novavax COVID-19 vaccine at Montreal plant


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a tentative deal Tuesday with U.S. vaccine-maker Novavax to produce its product in Canada if the COVID-19 vaccine gets approved for use here.




www.cp24.com


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> This man was running an illegal nightclub in his condo. I've heard of similar illegal (secret) nightclubs in Winnipeg.
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...ightclub-health-orders-bail-charges-1.5896303
> 
> What a history this guy has. Worked at Investors Group, forged client signatures, and now ... running an illegal nightclub in his condo, with 77 people, no masks. In other reporting I read about 100+ people. Asymptomatic disease spread seems almost certain, at events like this.
> 
> And how many parties did he throw? Clearly more than 2 events, and he probably made a lot of money off it as well.
> 
> With multiple events of that size, spreading COVID is almost a certainty. An average of $220 fine per person really is not enough of a deterrent for the partygoers. I hope they push for a jail sentence for this guy.
> 
> The $25,000 fine isn't nearly enough. He could have easily made a few thousand bucks from each party. Minimum fine has to be 10x as large.
> 
> This a*hole was doing this in my neighbourhood. I'm not happy about it; directly puts me in danger.


 ... what a sh1t-shady character ...worked as a financial planner at IG originally, committing fraud ... sums it up. 

Not sure why he needs a mask to cover himself up since he's going to get a mug-shot for a definite jail-term ... well-deserved for this effer.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Read the tweets again.
> 
> They shut down to download their local data to the Ontario government database and now all they do is link to the Ontario government data.
> 
> On the first day schools opened there was an infection case in a local school.


Read the tweet, and your claim again.
#MLHU will resume reporting of school cases next week on the Middlesex-London COVID-19 dashboard


sags said:


> The local health agency says they will stop announcing any school outbreaks effective tomorrow.


The Local health unit is still announcing school outbreaks.


----------



## sags

__





Microsoft Power BI







app.powerbi.com





The information posted on the MLH site is now downloaded from the Ontario government.

The MLH said they will no longer issue press releases for school infections.

It may be included in the Ontario government information........or not.

See under "Case studies".


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Microsoft Power BI
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> app.powerbi.com


Yes, I agree, the Middlesex London Health unit is still publishing local case data.





Summary of COVID-19 Cases in Middlesex-London — Middlesex-London Health Unit


Find the summary of COVID-19 cases in Middlesex-London. This information is updated daily at 12 noon.



www.healthunit.com





I'm not sure what your problem is, do you want each health unit to run their own databases and servers, then the province to run another database too?

The local data is being published by the local health unit.

The health unit has also said they will be publishing school data, on their twitter.
you're saying that those are not happening, but you failed to support data.

I don't care where the web server is located, I just want them to publish the data, and they are.


----------



## bgc_fan

Looks like Colchine may be a good candidate for COVID treatment. It has taken some time (identified last year as a possibility), but now there are some study results. It works by countering the cytokine storm which is what usually leads to the body attacking its own cells.





__





Anti-inflammatory therapy for COVID-19 infection: the case for colchicine | Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases






ard.bmj.com













Colchicine reduces the risk of COVID-19-related complications


Positive results from COLCORONA trial show that colchicine is the only effective oral medication for treating non-hospitalized patientsMONTREAL, January 22, 2021 – The Montreal Heart Institute (MHI) announced today that the COLCORONA clinical trial has provided clinically persuasive results of...




www.icm-mhi.org


----------



## sags

Great news.......

Why isn't the drug prescribed for people with pain from inflammation........from a wide range of ailments ?

All I read about is ibuprofen (Advil) which can't be taken with aspirin so people have to use Tylenol which doesn't work for inflammation.


----------



## sags

Hopefully after the COVID pandemic has passed, the research will continue to find therapies and cures for viruses.

The last thing we should do is cut spending to save tax dollars, like some past governments have done.


----------



## bgc_fan

sags said:


> Great news.......
> 
> Why isn't the drug prescribed for people with pain from inflammation........from a wide range of ailments ?
> 
> All I read about is ibuprofen (Advil) which can't be taken with aspirin so people have to use Tylenol which doesn't work for inflammation.


Probably because it might be the equivalent for swatting a mosquito with a car? There are probably other anti-inflammatory options.








Colchicine | Side Effects, Dosage, Uses & More


Colchicine is an oral drug used to treat or prevent gout symptoms, or to treat familial Mediterranean fever. Learn about side effects, warnings, and more.




www.healthline.com


----------



## andrewf

bgc_fan said:


> Looks like Colchine may be a good candidate for COVID treatment. It has taken some time (identified last year as a possibility), but now there are some study results. It works by countering the cytokine storm which is what usually leads to the body attacking its own cells.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Anti-inflammatory therapy for COVID-19 infection: the case for colchicine | Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ard.bmj.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Colchicine reduces the risk of COVID-19-related complications
> 
> 
> Positive results from COLCORONA trial show that colchicine is the only effective oral medication for treating non-hospitalized patientsMONTREAL, January 22, 2021 – The Montreal Heart Institute (MHI) announced today that the COLCORONA clinical trial has provided clinically persuasive results of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.icm-mhi.org


Great, let's use science to guide us, and not what some quack whispered in the President's ear.


----------



## gibor365

> Meanwhile, Ontario says it has completed the first round of COVID-19 vaccinations in all of its long-term care homes.











Coronavirus: Stay-at-home order and vaccines needed to avoid 3rd wave in Ontario, experts say | Globalnews.ca


In new COVID-19 projections issued Thursday, officials say public health measures have cut COVID-19 case counts, hospitalizations and positivity rates across the province.




globalnews.ca




Didn't they promise FULL vaccination (2 doses) in all LTC by end of February ?


----------



## gibor365

Ontario Health system is truly hilarious 


> Ontario is reporting 945 new cases of the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, however the province says that is not an accurate reflection of the true total due to issues with Toronto data.
> The migration of Toronto Public health to the provincial system over the past couple of weeks has led to repeated data reporting issues. The city previously confirmed that the migration was complete so it is not clear why more issues have surfaced today.
> The province logged 112 new infections in Toronto today but officials have not said how many more cases should have been included in today's total.











Ontario reports 945 new cases of COVID-19 today but Toronto Public Health data incomplete


More issues resulting from the migration of Toronto Public Health data to the provincial system has resulted in yet another under-estimation in the Ontario’s daily COVID-19 case count today.




www.cp24.com





Year ago Toronto Public health said that "provincial system" is crap and they stay on their own... Several weeks ago it has been decided that Toronto 's system is even crappier and migration was done!
As a result , Toronto (and some other regions!!!!) showed negative numbers...  Already 2-3 weeks passed and still data issue! And we're talking about extremely simple process - get 2 numbers from every test center , add and divide ...

Earlier , Province was doubling number of fully vaccinated people!

I doubt we can believe Ontario numbers at all !


----------



## gibor365

> An infectious disease expert says he believes that highly contagious variants of COVID-19 will trigger an "ugly" third wave of the pandemic around April that could send Ontario into a third lockdown.
> 
> "The third wave is inevitable," Colin Furness, an expert in infectious disease epidemiology from the University of Toronto, told CTV News Toronto. "And I think the third wave is the big one for us."











'Ugly' third wave of COVID-19 around April 'inevitable' for Ontario, expert says


An infectious disease expert says he believes that highly contagious variants of COVID-19 will trigger an 'ugly' third wave of the pandemic around April that could send Ontario into a third lockdown.



toronto.ctvnews.ca





No wonder! With our "fabulous" vaccination rate we gonna have also 4th wave and 5th wave ....


----------



## Mukhang pera




----------



## Beaver101

^ Hey, whatever works, even it's misleading to believers! Besides, nonbelievers would gloss over those real patients in the government messagings.


----------



## sags

Interesting the US administration rebuffs the WHO investigation report that the origin of the virus wasn't from a Chinese lab.

It is revealed the Chinese refused to give the data to the WHO investigators, and the US is demanding that raw data.

I have been saying all along the virus escaped the lab, and it appears the US believes that as well......possibly through their own intelligence sources.

It has been said the WHO and scientists are anxious to cover up a leak from the lab because people would question this type of "enhanced" virus research.

There is also the question of Canada's connection to the lab. The Chinese couple who were walked out of the Winnipeg lab have now been terminated.


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> I have been saying all along the virus escaped the lab, and it appears the US believes that as well......possibly through their own intelligence sources.


Just out of interest, what intelligence sources did you base your "saying all along" on?


----------



## agent99

gibor365 said:


> No wonder! With our "fabulous" vaccination rate we gonna have also 4th wave and 5th wave ....


Marine/Surfing mythology says the seventh wave is the largest. But that is seldom true. According to the experts, it is the middle wave in an established set of waves that is largest. 

So, we need to know ahead of time how many waves there will be before we can say which will be the largest! If we get 4 or 5, the 2nd or 3rd would be the largest! WE may be there


----------



## sags

Rolling back restrictions while the variants are increasing infections = bad idea, according to scientists.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/variants-lifting-restrictions-second-opinion-1.5912760


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> Rolling back restrictions while the variants are increasing infections = bad idea, according to scientists.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/variants-lifting-restrictions-second-opinion-1.5912760


I wonder if the Medical officers in Peel and Toronto will request a longer lockdown. The projections look bad if B117 gets going. Seems almost inevitable to follow the UK/Ireland experience. We’re about 3 months behind them. I’m predicting the kids stay home after April break.


----------



## cheech10

Now 15% variant prevalence in the GTA (Rapid Rise of S-Gene Target Failure and the UK variant B.1.1.7 among COVID-19 isolates in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada) almost all UK variant not South African. But doubling every ~8 days, so will be the dominant strain by end of February, likely we see another lockdown end of March/April. Hopefully can get a lot of the 80+ year olds vaccinated by then.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cheech10 said:


> Now 15% variant prevalence in the GTA (Rapid Rise of S-Gene Target Failure and the UK variant B.1.1.7 among COVID-19 isolates in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada) almost all UK variant not South African. But doubling every ~8 days, so will be the dominant strain by end of February, likely we see another lockdown end of March/April. Hopefully can get a lot of the 80+ year olds vaccinated by then.


Now when you have an infection rate difference of 1.17 compared to 0.82, all supposedly related to the viruses themselves (as opposed to our own precautions), it must also be true that for the same time of exposure to the same contaminated source, that the people exposed to something with 1.17 cannot help but obtain a higher dose of virus infection then the people being exposed to a virus measuring 0.82.

If that is the case, then should we not also be starting to see a higher hospitalization, ICU and death rates from these variants, as well? Has anyone seen anything on this? Plus, if these people are getting sicker quicker, they probably are going home ill sooner and hence, does their own infection reduction response more then overwhelm the increased infection rates of these variants themselves? These are the questions that we need answers on.

I also wonder, with the South African study showing how the Astrazeneca vaccine showed only around a 20% improvement on reducing mild symptoms from Covid-19 in people with an average age of 31 (fairly ridiculous study). It sounds like to me that the increased dosage obtained by contracting the SA variant was enough to overcome the benefits of the AZ vaccine, but unless the variants has a much higher reproduction rate, that difference should probably move back in the favour of the vaccine, for moderate and severe outcomes of Covid-19. I am not sure if this last statement is the way it should work or only the way I hope it works. It's too bad they did not test for these more important questions.

Who cares about the mild outcomes? Hard to believe the South Africans made such a life and death decision on data that really does not tell us much except that we need more data.


----------



## sags

Well.........spring and summer is coming folks, so at least we will be able to sit out on the front porch or in the back patio......listening to Caribbean steel drum music, or maybe take a drive to the beach and have a burger and fries (if they are open).

Just getting out of the house for a little sun will be a great break for everyone.

Hang in there !


----------



## Beaver101

... you too + your hard working wife!


----------



## gibor365

> The province says case counts continue to "fluctuate" as Toronto Public Health migrates to its new primary disease reporting system, which is called the Case and Contact Management System, or CCM
> Toronto Public Health said in an email to CBC Toronto on Sunday that it is in the "middle of our transition" to the provincial data system for public health case and contact management.
> 
> "This is a big transfer that includes over 80,000 records. Data fluctuation remain possible during the completion of the work," Dr. Vinita Dubey, associate medical officer of health, said in the email.


OMG! What a retarded province LOL. If Ford had balls, he would fire all those government workers and outsource


----------



## Beaver101

^ Sounds pretty much the same expertise from the private IT sector whenever there is a "need" to systems upgrade because of some brilliant innovating brain-exercise from management. Look no further than the banks' brokerages these days. 

As for outsourcing, you might get what you wish - outsource all the way out of the country to some non-primary-English speaking country. And you'll be b1tching about the accents you'll be hearing plus the jobs-drain.


----------



## gibor365

Outsource doesn't mean to go to India or China ... You can outsource to Canadian or US contractors...
I worked in IT and we did dozens of serious conversion in matter of 1-2 days, here you just need to upload data from test labs and add the numbers... This is joke


----------



## OptsyEagle

OptsyEagle said:


> Now when you have an infection rate difference of 1.17 compared to 0.82, all supposedly related to the viruses themselves (as opposed to our own precautions), it must also be true that for the same time of exposure to the same contaminated source, that the people exposed to something with 1.17 cannot help but obtain a higher dose of virus infection then the people being exposed to a virus measuring 0.82.
> 
> If that is the case, then should we not also be starting to see a higher hospitalization, ICU and death rates from these variants, as well? Has anyone seen anything on this? Plus, if these people are getting sicker quicker, they probably are going home ill sooner and hence, does their own infection reduction response more then overwhelm the increased infection rates of these variants themselves? These are the questions that we need answers on.


That did not take too long. My theory above relating to the new variants compared to the original appears to be correct. If a variant is more infectious, then people should obtain higher doses of it and that should lead to higher severity. Looks like they are starting to see this.









How Deadly Is the U.K. Variant?


Updated analyses support worse clinical outcomes




www.medpagetoday.com





Now, I was hoping, that if I was correct, that a person might get sicker quicker and remove themselves from the infectious pool quicker resulting in an overall lower infection rate. That probably is going to end up being wishful thinking. Although those factors do work together in that way, it is not a linear relationship and would have quite a few variables to overcome. Looks like we are simply going to get more infections that are a more severe. Isn't that nice?

Well, at least now we know. Not too much we will be able to do about it except vaccinate. You can always double your mask and of course, don't go anywhere near anyone. 10 feet away is better then 7 feet. Don't take any chances unless you have to. Good luck.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Outsource doesn't mean to go to India or China ... You can outsource to Canadian or US contractors...
> *I worked in IT and we did dozens of serious conversion in matter of 1-2 days,* here you just need to upload data from test labs and add the numbers... This is joke


 .... I'm LMAO ... a conversion in a matter of "1 to 2 days" handled by outsourced in-country IT personnel who was taught by the same country IT experts (retards like you said).

The planning itself takes at least a year, if not more, depending on how old the systems is. Concurrent to that is the implementaion. Your amazing "1 or 2 days conversion" (dream) factor is a standby for a systems-crash (aka eff-ups).


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> .... I'm LMAO ... a conversion in a matter of "1 to 2 days" handled by outsourced in-country IT personnel who was taught by the same country IT experts (retards like you said).
> 
> The planning itself takes at least a year, if not more, depending on how old the systems is. Concurrent to that is the implementaion. Your "1 or 2" days conversion" factor is a standby for a systems-crash (aka eff-ups).


"at least a year"?! You don't know what you are talking about.... and conversion itself is going overnight and company I worked at converted/deconverted dozens of Mutual/Seg fund companies including Tier 1 ...
Bunch of college students can perform so simple conversion as uploading numbers from test centers and adding them together.

P.S. you probably think that it's completely justified to give for month wrong numbers because of "extremely complicated" conversion LOL


----------



## Beaver101

^ No, I don't know what I'm talking about 'cause I'm not an IT expert ... like somebody. So the only "systems" conversion I can think that would be so simple for 1 or 2 days is ... a fx conversion which you can use a handheld calculator ... actually back of a napkin and a pen would do.


----------



## gibor365

If you need 1-2 days for FX conversion, I understand why it's OK with you to have 1 month of "extremely complicated" conversion Toronto public health is doing.... 
You also would be happy if after your discount brokerage or personal banking conversion to some new platform, you would see completely wrong $$$ numbers for 1 month .
Obviously that those government workers are completely incompetent and they know that they are untouchable , so who cares about quality?!


----------



## Beaver101

^ Just to clarify for an non-IT person(me), the lingo for your version of an IT-"conversion" is known as a "data-migration" or data-merging.

Now I understand where you came up with the concept of Covid-lockdown "exaggerations" because your version of a "conversion" is exactly that ... or as you mentioned above "_Bunch of college students can perform so simple conversion as uploading numbers from test centers and adding them together" _so no need for outsourcing either and we can all save ours/yours tax dollars too btw.


----------



## gibor365

It's even funny to call the simplest thing that they cannot do in 1 month - "conversion"  ... no preparation, no analysis , no sdlc life cycle ... "just let's do it and we'll see" , and now we see those jokers


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> It's even funny to call the simplest thing that they cannot do in 1 month - "conversion"


 ... if you had read or even understood the news properly, they didn't call it a "conversion" . They called it a data- migration when you went labelling it as a "conversion" and you're supposed to be the "IT-expert".



> ... no preparation, no analysis , no sdlc life cycle ... "just let's do it and we'll see" , and now we see those jokers


 ... right, no different from your IT "expertise" training here in this country. All from the same barrel.


----------



## Beaver101

COVID-19 variants could fuel surge of 20K daily cases if restrictions eased: feds

Wow, I think some restless people are gonna to be asphyxiated by the continuous restrictions, lockdowns, restrictions, lockdowns, restrictions, lockdowns, etc. given the multiple waves we're gonna to be seeing.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> COVID-19 variants could fuel surge of 20K daily cases if restrictions eased: feds
> 
> Wow, I think some restless people are gonna to be asphyxiated by the continuous restrictions, lockdowns, restrictions, lockdowns, restrictions, lockdowns, etc. given the multiple waves we're gonna to be seeing.


If only we implemented that travel ban back in march 2020 like Trudeau said he would


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> If only we implemented that travel ban back in march 2020 like Trudeau said he would


 .. that horse has already left the barn a year ago. 

Now if only some people stop skirting the laws or lying about it (such as mask wearing, stay-at-home, time-wasting protest, etc. ie, if we actually "do" our part), we might able break the chain of infection, including the variants.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> .. that horse has already left the barn a year ago.
> 
> Now if only some people stop skirting the laws or lying about it (such as mask wearing, stay-at-home, time-wasting protest, etc. ie, if we actually "do" our part), we might able break the chain of infection, including the variants.


Yeah, well I hope people hold Trudeau to account in the next election.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, well I hope people hold Trudeau to account in the next election.


 ... you don't have to worry. Those fiascos (SNC, WE, etc.) can't be erased from history. Although the bucks stop with Trudeau, I would evaluate his performance based on that of his left and right hand man/woman ... ie. his advisors.

At the same time, currently it's sad that the performance of the opposition is lacklustre on the Fed's level. 

However, that' is not say I'm impressed (already surprised about a year ago) with Ford's performance for ON so there's hope for the PC at the Fed's level.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... you don't have to worry. Those fiascos (SNC, WE, etc.) can't be erased from history. Although the bucks stop with Trudeau, I would evaluate his performance based on that of his left and right hand man/woman ... ie. his advisors.
> 
> At the same time, currently it's sad that the performance of the opposition is lacklustre on the Fed's level.
> 
> However, that' is not say I'm impressed (already surprised about a year ago) with Ford's performance for ON so there's hope for the PC at the Fed's level.


I met Doug and voted PC, though I had very low expectations.
He's far exceeded them.

However he won't intrude too heavily into Federal politics, unless he really has a bone to pick.

He doesn't strike me as particularly bright, but I think he has high emotional intelligence, and he's always flattering and complimentary to those he works with.
He specifically didn't dump much dirt at the efforts of the Federal government, other than complaining about their lack of border controls.

Even when he's pleading for approval of the vaccine, he acknowledges they're working very hard.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> COVID-19 variants could fuel surge of 20K daily cases if restrictions eased: feds
> 
> Wow, I think some restless people are gonna to be asphyxiated by the continuous restrictions, lockdowns, restrictions, lockdowns, restrictions, lockdowns, etc. given the multiple waves we're gonna to be seeing.


Call me cynical, uneducated, a denier, whatever. I'm immune to the media's fear mongering about these variants. If they were truly that much different than the original strain, we wouldn't be seeing cases drop like a rock in the USA, where some jurisdictions have essentially zero restrictions compared to the rest of the world.

7 day average cases in the US - Jan 10, 2021 - 255,000
7 day average cases in the US - February 18, 2021 - 72,000 *(-72%)*

7 day global cases - Jan 10, 2021 - 746,000
7 day global cases - Feb 18, 2021 - 362,000 *(-52%)*

If these new variants are supposed to be hyper infectious, they really aren't doing a great job of it.


----------



## Money172375

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mandatory-hotel-quarantine-list-1.5919963



quarantine costs well below $2,000? This may have the opposite desired impact.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I met Doug and voted PC, though I had very low expectations.
> *He's far exceeded them*.


 ... agree given given the circumstances, a first with a pandemic. 



> However he won't intrude too heavily into Federal politics, unless he really has a bone to pick.


 ... never say never with ambitions. But I would prefer that he stays as premier so he can continue with the good work. 



> He doesn't strike me as particularly bright, but I think he has high emotional intelligence, and he's always flattering and complimentary to those he works with..
> He specifically didn't dump much dirt at the efforts of the Federal government, other than complaining about their lack of border controls.
> 
> Even when he's pleading for approval of the vaccine, he acknowledges they're working very hard.


... I'm not aware of his flattering & complimentary behaviour as I have never met him. And I wouldn't say he isn't that bright (quite the opposite) just because he can come off as pretty brusque. 

I agree with you that his EI is quite high based on his efforts to "work with others" and his plead to Biden for the vaccine ... that was really impressive to me.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> Call me cynical, uneducated, a denier, whatever. I'm immune to the media's fear mongering about these variants. If they were truly that much different than the original strain, we wouldn't be seeing cases drop like a rock in the USA, where some jurisdictions have essentially zero restrictions compared to the rest of the world.
> 
> 7 day average cases in the US - Jan 10, 2021 - 255,000
> 7 day average cases in the US - February 18, 2021 - 72,000 *(-72%)*
> 
> 7 day global cases - Jan 10, 2021 - 746,000
> 7 day global cases - Feb 18, 2021 - 362,000 *(-52%)*
> 
> If these new variants are supposed to be hyper infectious, they really aren't doing a great job of it.


 ... you may be immune to the media's fear mongering about the variants and non-variants via reading and typing from your armchair. But for those who caught it and suffered or the survivors of the deceaseds ... that's a different story (real life).


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, well I hope people hold Trudeau to account in the next election.


They will and Trudeau will win a majority government.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... you may be immune to the media's fear mongering about the variants and non-variants via reading and typing from your armchair. But for those who caught it and suffered or the survivors of the deceaseds ... that's a different story (real life).


You may have misinterpreted my post. I'm not downplaying the severity of Covid. 

What I am skeptical of, and the numbers seem to back me up on this - is that variants of concern seem to behave no differently than the original virus. They do not appear to be significantly more contagious - or at least not yet.

Since they appeared in late fall 2020, we have gone through a sustained contraction in global cases not seen since the virus surfaced in early 2020 - something one would not expect with a highly infectious variant circulating the globe for the past 3 months.

Anecdotally, my co worker has been home for 24 days with his wife and child, both of whom tested positive for the B117 variant. It hasn't been contagious enough to infect him yet.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> They will and Trudeau will win a majority government.


You don't hold someone accountable for their mistakes by giving them more power.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> You may have misinterpreted my post. I'm not downplaying the severity of Covid.
> 
> What I am skeptical of, and the numbers seem to back me up on this - is that variants of concern seem to behave no differently than the original virus. They do not appear to be significantly more contagious - or at least not yet.
> 
> Since they appeared in late fall 2020, we have gone through a sustained contraction in global cases not seen since the virus surfaced in early 2020 - something one would not expect with a highly infectious variant circulating the globe for the past 3 months.
> 
> Anecdotally, my co worker has been home for 24 days with his wife and child, both of whom tested positive for the B117 variant. It hasn't been contagious enough to infect him yet.


 ... ever heard of "being safe than sorry"? 

I don't think our healthcare people likes the joy of alerting the media to create fear mongering on us.


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> ... if you had read or even understood the news properly, they didn't call it a "conversion" . They called it a data- migration when you went labelling it as a "conversion" and you're supposed to be the "IT-expert".
> 
> ... right, no different from your IT "expertise" training here in this country. All from the same barrel.


Data migration is actually much simpler than conversion, but you are IT expert, so Beavel keep gnawing you log LOL


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> You don't hold someone accountable for their mistakes by giving them more power.


Usually it's correct, but Canada is very different .... no wonder Trudeau was bringing last 6 years "pseudo-refugees" !


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... ever heard of "being safe than sorry"?
> 
> I don't think our healthcare people likes the joy of alerting the media to create fear mongering on us.


I have heard of the saying, yes.

For a third time: I haven't seen any tangible evidence that the variants behave any differently than the original strain on a population.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> I have heard of the saying, yes.
> 
> For a third time: I haven't seen any tangible evidence that the variants behave any differently than the original strain on a population.


... then why was the UK alerting other countries? Not sure why you need to see "tangible" evidence about the variants to be convinced ... are you a scientist or want to be one?


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... then why was the UK alerting other countries? Not sure why you need to see "tangible" evidence about the variants to be convinced ... are you a scientist or want to be one?


Why do I need to see evidence of justification for future lockdowns because of aggressive spread of variants? 

Because I believe things should be done for a reason. Especially continuing to bring an economy and society to its knees with potentially unnecessary restrictions.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> Why do I need to see evidence of justification for future lockdowns because of aggressive spread of variants?
> 
> Because I believe things should be done for a reason. * Especially continuing to bring an economy and society to its knees with potentially unnecessary restrictions.*


 ... how about this ... if our healthcare collapses, do you think we have an economy?


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... how about this ... if our healthcare collapses, do you think we have an economy?


I reluctantly support restrictions to alleviate an overwhelmed healthcare system, when the data supports it. 

The data suggests that these new variants behave no differently than the original virus, so we should continue the same path we are on. 

As long as cases and hospitalizations decline, I support loosening of restrictions. If we are trending upwards I support increasing restrictions. The variants change my opinion exactly zero.


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> ... how about this ... if our healthcare collapses, do you think we have an economy?


Aren't they both collapsing together already ?!


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> I reluctantly support restrictions to alleviate an overwhelmed healthcare system, *when the data supports it.
> 
> The data suggests that these new variants behave no differently than the original virus, so we should continue the same path we are on.*
> 
> As long as cases and hospitalizations decline, I support loosening of restrictions. If we are trending upwards I support increasing restrictions. The variants change my opinion exactly zero.


 .. hate to tell you this but you're ain't Public Health and they call the shots.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> .. hate to tell you this but you're ain't Public Health and they call the shots.


I hate to tell you this, but my views align with public health, which in case you haven't noticed, are relaxing restrictions despite the presence of variants. 

You're in quite the pissy mood today, aren't ya.


----------



## MrMatt

Bananatron said:


> I hate to tell you this, but my views align with public health, which in case you haven't noticed, are relaxing restrictions despite the presence of variants.
> 
> You're in quite the pissy mood today, aren't ya.


Depends what area, some areas are less than 20 cases/100k/wk, some cases are still a bit high.
The lockdowns should really be at the health unit level, which is what Ontario is trying to push.


----------



## sags

Actually, I have seen credible reports that the variants cause more severe symptoms.

The mere fact they infect people more readily, means the infection, hospitalization, and death rates will all go up.


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> Actually, I have seen credible reports that the variants cause more severe symptoms.
> 
> The mere fact they infect people more readily, means the infection, hospitalization, and death rates will all go up.


Yes, that's the logical conclusion - but the variants have been circulating the globe for at least 3 months and cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have all trended drastically down.

Certainly we would see the effects of the variants somewhere to prove this hypothesis. So far, looks like hot air.

(South Africa down 85% from one month ago)


----------



## Money172375

Think we need to remind ourselves sometimes how well we’re doing...


----------



## sags

A CNN panel of experts tonight said the variants are far more dangerous than the original virus.

They say studies show the variants infect much easier, and the infected person can spread the virus for twice as long.

A normal recovery is one week and the variant recovery period is two weeks.

I have also read reports from doctors that the variant makes people much sicker.

They also say that the variants are infecting people who previously had COVID.

I think it is too early to throw the economy open just to see what happens. That type of herd immunity has always failed.

We need to get this virus under control before a mutation occurs that we can't handle.

The longer the virus infects new people.....the higher the opportunity for the virus to mutate.


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> A CNN panel of experts tonight said the variants are far more dangerous than the original virus.
> 
> They say studies show the variants infect much easier, and the infected person can spread the virus for twice as long.
> 
> A normal recovery is one week and the variant recovery period is two weeks.
> 
> I have also read reports from doctors that the variant makes people much sicker.
> 
> They also say that the variants are infecting people who previously had COVID.
> 
> I think it is too early to throw the economy open just to see what happens. That type of herd immunity has always failed.
> 
> We need to get this virus under control before a mutation occurs that we can't handle.
> 
> The longer the virus infects new people.....the higher the opportunity for the virus to mutate.


Not disagreeing with any of that. I don't think anyone is suggesting throwing the economy wide open especially when we are so close to being protected by the vaccine. 

I'm just saying small, controlled removals of restrictions in parallel with careful monitoring of case counts and hospitalizations is the way to go rather than staying locked down in fear of the unknown (variants), especially with the numbers plummeting like they have been. 

The states have been vaccinating at a rate of .5% per day, for canada that equals out to about 180k a day. Today we're at 50k.

I'm optimistic that the seasonality of the virus combined with the vaccination efforts and existing immunity will have us looking at these restrictions in the rear view mirror by Victoria day.


----------



## gibor365

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-february-19-2021-toronto-peel-reopen-1.5919922


*COVID-19 stay-at-home order extended in Toronto, Peel and North Bay-Parry Sound*

So York reopens (as Halton earlier), but Toronto and Peel don't 
At least we can drive now to Oakville/Milton malls and restaurants (luckily we live on the Peel/Halton border) 



> I'm just saying small, controlled removals of restrictions in parallel with careful monitoring of case counts and hospitalizations is the way to go rather than staying locked down in fear of the unknown (variants), especially with the numbers plummeting like they have been.


True! In any case there is no big difference between lockdown and red zone for a lot of people.... Roads are busy (almost as per-Covid), stores (that opened) are full... I personally go to the stores 2-3 time more frequently than pre-Covid times.



> when we are so close to being protected by the vaccine


 We aren't close to being protected by the vaccine AT ALL! Vaccination practically didn't start in Ontario as less than 1.5% were fully vaccinated.


----------



## gibor365

15-21 Feb Canada gets 403,650 as per
Vaccines and treatments for COVID-19: Vaccine rollout - Canada.ca
We'll see if roll out will be better, today ON administered just a bit more than 16K


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> I hate to tell you this, but my views align with public health, which in case you haven't noticed, are relaxing restrictions despite the presence of variants.
> 
> You're in quite the pissy mood today, aren't ya.


 ... no more pissier than you. And I don't see how your views are aligned with public health unless you're talking about your public health somewhere in the USA where you're registered. In fact, there is no need to relax anything as the pandemic doesn't exist there ... only in other parts of the world.

So as of now, I ain't seeing our public health (Toronto (city), Ontario(province), Canada(country)) saying anything about relaxing the restrictions, with particular considerations of the "variants". Starting Monday February 22, 2021, only different areas of Ontario will have their restrictions somewhat loosened (or moved to a colour zone restrictions) but that could change any moment depending on the infection #s.

We can all wish for restrictions to be loosened but the fact is the laws are in place in Ontario, Canada and its citizens should be abiding by them. Simple as that.

And you are free to point out your views with even "supporting" data and do whatever you want. EOM.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> A CNN panel of experts tonight said the variants are far more dangerous than the original virus.
> 
> They say studies show the variants infect much easier, and the infected person can spread the virus for twice as long.
> 
> A normal recovery is one week and the variant recovery period is two weeks.
> 
> I have also read reports from doctors that the variant makes people much sicker.
> 
> They also say that the variants are infecting people who previously had COVID.
> 
> I think it is too early to throw the economy open just to see what happens. That type of herd immunity has always failed.
> 
> We need to get this virus under control before a mutation occurs that we can't handle.
> 
> The longer the virus infects new people.....the higher the opportunity for the virus to mutate.


 ... I'm shocked Bananatron agreed with this post. 

Let's gather in a circle and sing kumbaya and open up the economy NOW.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... no more pissier than you. And I don't see how your views are aligned with public health unless you're talking about your public health somewhere in the USA where you're registered. In fact, there is no need to relax anything as the pandemic doesn't exist there ... only in other parts of the world.
> 
> So as of now, I ain't seeing our public health (Toronto (city), Ontario(province), Canada(country)) saying anything about relaxing the restrictions, with particular considerations of the "variants". Starting Monday February 22, 2021, only different areas of Ontario will have their restrictions somewhat loosened (or moved to a colour zone restrictions) but that could change any moment depending on the infection #s.
> 
> We can all wish for restrictions to be loosened but the fact is the laws are in place in Ontario, Canada and its citizens should be abiding by them. Simple as that.
> 
> And you are free to point out your views with even "supporting" data and do whatever you want. EOM.


I'm from Alberta. A little less than 2 weeks ago we re opened in person dining at restaurants, one on one personal training and modified youth team sports. Schools have been open since January 11 after an extended 3 week Christmas break. In home social gatherings are still banned, and will be until stage 3. Gatherings of 10 or less are permitted outdoors, haircuts are available with appointment, retail stores are open with reduced capacity.

Our re opening plan is set in stages. A minimum of 3 weeks between stages is given to evaluate the effects of the loosening of previous restrictions. Each stage has a hospitalization check point, for example to enter stage 1 that we are currently in we needed under 600 hospitalizations, 450 for stage 2, 300 for stage 3 and 150 for near normal conditions. We are currently at 350 or so hospitalizations with a steady daily case load of 250-400 per day (down from 1800 back in December) with about a 3%-4% positivity rate. I will be very surpirsed if we don't proceed on to stage 2 on March 1, which is essentially further easing of restrictions on retail centers, hotels and conference centers.

This isn't the only metric that is used however, as hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. Low or dropping daily case numbers are a pre-requisite prior to moving on to the next stage as well.

I strongly support this plan as it is firmly based on data, not "what ifs". If the variants do take hold, they will show up in the daily case numbers, and re opening plan will be paused or reversed. So far this hasn't been the case. Hospitalization rates and daily cases have steadily declined since the January 10 peak.


----------



## Bananatron

gibor365 said:


> 15-21 Feb Canada gets 403,650 as per
> Vaccines and treatments for COVID-19: Vaccine rollout - Canada.ca
> We'll see if roll out will be better, today ON administered just a bit more than 16K


I was reading about Canadas vaccine plan.

They were expecting to vaccinate ~200,000k per week (30k.day)for the first quarter. That would have approximately 3m vaccinated by the end of March.
Q2 is where things are really expected to pick up. They plan on having 14.5million people vaccinated by the end of June. Thats a little less than 1million per week, or around 130,000 jabs a day. We shall see how that goes.


----------



## Money172375

Bananatron said:


> I was reading about Canadas vaccine plan.
> 
> They were expecting to vaccinate ~200,000k per week (30k.day)for the first quarter. That would have approximately 3m vaccinated by the end of March.
> Q2 is where things are really expected to pick up. They plan on having 14.5million people vaccinated by the end of June. Thats a little less than 1million per week, or around 130,000 jabs a day. We shall see how that goes.


Ontario claims they have the ability to 160,000 day.


----------



## gibor365

40-50K a day will be already a great success


----------



## Money172375

I have a feeling my region in Ontario will be the first in Canada to re-enter lockdown due to a new variant. general trends are heading down in Ontario, but we’re going the opposite way. Local medical officer just announced he‘s considering asking to go back into lockdown. we just came out of it last week.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> I have a feeling my region in Ontario will be the first in Canada to re-enter lockdown due to a new variant. general trends are heading down in Ontario, but we’re going the opposite way. Local medical officer just announced he‘s considering asking to go back into lockdown. we just came out of it last week.


I can't believe this far into the pandemic we still don't have a grasp on WHERE this is circulating and spreading.

Schools? Home gatherings? Airline travel?

I don't have any answers here, I'm just frustrated. Where is it circulating?


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> I can't believe this far into the pandemic we still don't have a grasp on WHERE this is circulating and spreading.
> 
> Schools? Home gatherings? Airline travel?
> 
> I don't have any answers here, I'm just frustrated. Where is it circulating?


UK variant made its way into a Ltc home in Barrie. Almost every resident got covid. They think a traveller got in there. 
here’s a timeline. I’ve seen charts now where they are tracking standard covid curves and variant curves. Our region has done well until now...but I fear we may soon follow toronto and Peel as hotspots.









TIMELINE: Outbreak at Roberta Place Long Term Care in Barrie


How the Roberta Place outbreak unfolded.




www.simcoe.com


----------



## Bananatron

Money172375 said:


> UK variant made its way into a Ltc home in Barrie. Almost every resident got covid. They think a traveller got in there.
> here’s a timeline. I’ve seen charts now where they are tracking standard covid curves and variant curves. Our region has done well until now...but I fear we may soon follow toronto and Peel as hotspots.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TIMELINE: Outbreak at Roberta Place Long Term Care in Barrie
> 
> 
> How the Roberta Place outbreak unfolded.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.simcoe.com


Was listening to a podcast this morning, they said there was an outbreak at a ltc home in Ontario where the residents all had their first shot. 22 positive cases, all with very minor or no symptoms.

I look forward to the day the daily case count is no longer relevant.

Edit:

Feb. 1 - 63 of the Barrie facility’s 129 residents have died as a result of an outbreak.

That is horrible.


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> I can't believe this far into the pandemic we still don't have a grasp on WHERE this is circulating and spreading.
> 
> Schools? Home gatherings? Airline travel?
> 
> I don't have any answers here, I'm just frustrated. Where is it circulating?


I feel it’s from social interactions. I’ve seen interviews with contact tracers. People with covid say they haven’t gone anywhere...just for groceries. Then they ask them to review their call logs or bank accounts and then they suddenly remember all the places they’ve been. The areas in Peel and toronto being hardest hit are generally immigrants (English is not first language), multi-generational homes, working in factories or warehouses supporting grocers or Amazon, or the post offices. it’s mostly people who need to physically go to work to keep essential Businesses operational. There’s been a huge call for paid sick days as many are going to work sick because they need the money.


----------



## Money172375

Bananatron said:


> Was listening to a podcast this morning, they said there was an outbreak at a ltc home in Ontario where the residents all had their first shot. 22 positive cases, all with very minor or no symptoms.
> 
> I look forward to the day the daily case count is no longer relevant.


Agreed....I’ve been watching death counts and they seem to be coming down. Cases though can still lead to hospitalizations.

I think that’s the biggest thing between the US and Canada (or perhaps Ontario). Hospital capacity is generally much higher in the US. Last report I read was that Florida hospitals were at 75% capacity even though they have 2-3 times of cases/capita vs Ontario. Meanwhile, there was a point in Ontario where more than half the hospitals only had 1 or 2 ICU beds available.


----------



## Bananatron

Money172375 said:


> I feel it’s from social interactions. I’ve seen interviews with contact tracers. People with covid say they haven’t gone anywhere...just for groceries. Then they ask them to review their call logs or bank accounts and then they suddenly remember all the places they’ve been. The areas in Peel and toronto being hardest hit are generally immigrants (English is not first language), multi-generational homes, working in factories or warehouses supporting grocers or Amazon, or the post offices. it’s mostly people who need to physically go to work to keep essential Businesses operational. There’s been a huge call for paid sick days as many are going to work sick because they need the money.


Definitely that type of thing. Also young people doing what young people do. Teens wearing masks at school in the halls then piling 6 into a car and getting lunch at McDonald's.

Socially distanced hockey practice where players carpool to and from, obviously no masks. 

We went to west edmonton mall at the beginning of January to rent a theme room for my sons birthday, talking to other guests there seemed to be at least 2 parties per floor. We had one right next to our room, music blasting like it was no big deal. Keep in mind this is a week after everyone was told to spend Christmas by themselves. 

I can't even be mad though, I probably would have done the same thing at 22.


----------



## Money172375

Bananatron said:


> Definitely that type of thing. Also young people doing what young people do. Teens wearing masks at school in the halls then piling 6 into a car and getting lunch at McDonald's.
> 
> Socially distanced hockey practice where players carpool to and from, obviously no masks.
> 
> We went to west edmonton mall at the beginning of January to rent a theme room for my sons birthday, talking to other guests there seemed to be at least 2 parties per floor. We had one right next to our room, music blasting like it was no big deal. Keep in mind this is a week after everyone was told to spend Christmas by themselves.
> 
> I can't even be mad though, I probably would have done the same thing at 22.


Malls, party rooms? What country are you in? Lol. Way different experience in Ontario. Some businesses have been closed for 3+ months. Restaurants where I live allow 10 guests max. Stores allow 25%. No malls. No party rooms, no community centres, no libraries, no gyms, no ice rinks. Some of the grocery stores won’t even allow 2 people from the same household.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> Malls, party rooms? What country are you in? Lol. Way different experience in Ontario. Some businesses have been closed for 3+ months. Restaurants where I live allow 10 guests max. Stores allow 25%. No malls. No party rooms, no community centres, no libraries, no gyms, no ice rinks. Some of the grocery stores won’t even allow 2 people from the same household.


Russian Banjas (saunas) Steamul in Mississauga is closed already 11 month! Patrons of the venue submitted 2 petitions to Ford....owner of the place said that similar Saunas are open in other provinces. 
When we went to vet to spay our 2 Siberian kittens, they kept us 20 min in the cold (clinic was completely empty). through the door she told to call her and asked us like 20 questions. then she opened door , but let in only my wife ...she said "one person per one pet" and when I mentioned that we are spaying 2 cats, she said "2 is counted as 1 as they are from same household" ! What an idiocy is going on in ON.

P.S. Today it took us 2 hours to book ANY restaurant in Oakville for tomorrow! Looks like All Mississauga is going to Oakville's restaurants now


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> I think that’s the biggest thing between the US and Canada (or perhaps Ontario). Hospital capacity is generally much higher in the US. Last report I read was that Florida hospitals were at 75% capacity even though they have 2-3 times of cases/capita vs Ontario. Meanwhile, there was a point in Ontario where more than half the hospitals only had 1 or 2 ICU beds available.


What can you expect from miserable OHIP?!


----------



## gibor365

> Ontario Premier Doug Ford defended his government’s decision to invest $2.5 million in wearable contact tracing technology that will beep or buzz to notify users if they are too close to another person, saying that the deal should yield a “good return on investment.”


What a stupidity!!!!


----------



## Bananatron

Money172375 said:


> Malls, party rooms? What country are you in? Lol. Way different experience in Ontario. Some businesses have been closed for 3+ months. Restaurants where I live allow 10 guests max. Stores allow 25%. No malls. No party rooms, no community centres, no libraries, no gyms, no ice rinks. Some of the grocery stores won’t even allow 2 people from the same household.


I'm not sure if you're familiar with west edmonton mall. It has a huge Waterpark (closed), indoor amusement park ( closed), ice rink (closed), restaurants and food courts (open for takeout only) and hotel built in. The hotel has theme rooms (outer space, country and western, etc). Seeing that hotels remained open we thought a theme room would be kind of neat for my 8 year old sons birthday considering he couldn't have a real party. 

The stores in the mall often had lineups due to the capacity restrictions.

The partying was happening in the hotel rooms. Regular hotel rooms, not party rooms. Around the holidays there was a big fuss about no guests at your house, but a lot more difficult to enforce at a hotel I suppose.

edit: being the wet blanket that I am, I did call security on the partyers next door and it was dispersed fairly quickly. As I would anytime staying at a hotel.


----------



## Money172375

People are walking right out of Toronto airport without tests or hotel quarantines. The fine of approx $800 is lower than the estimated hotel costs of $2,000.









International travelers are walking out of Mississauga's Pearson Airport and ignoring quarantine rules | inSauga


International travelers arriving at Mississauga’s Pearson Airport are bypassing new government hotel quarantine protocols by simply walking out of the airport or by choosing to take a fine. Peel Police have confirmed they are not detaining or arresting people who leave the arrival area. As well...




www.insauga.com


----------



## Beaver101

^ Amazing job that Canada Customs and Border are doing ... this is heck alot easier and cheaper than bringing back some gifted-rum from Jamaica and today is February 24, 2021, one year into a still ongoing pandemic. Unbelieveable. 

No wonder potential vacationers trapped in the cities are b1tching right, left and center.


----------



## Bananatron

Money172375 said:


> People are walking right out of Toronto airport without tests or hotel quarantines. The fine of approx $800 is lower than the estimated hotel costs of $2,000.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> International travelers are walking out of Mississauga's Pearson Airport and ignoring quarantine rules | inSauga
> 
> 
> International travelers arriving at Mississauga’s Pearson Airport are bypassing new government hotel quarantine protocols by simply walking out of the airport or by choosing to take a fine. Peel Police have confirmed they are not detaining or arresting people who leave the arrival area. As well...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.insauga.com


Hilarious


----------



## MrMatt

Bananatron said:


> Hilarious


yeah, and police aren't enforcing the quarantine, apparently COVID19 isn't "serious".

FFS it's an airport, it should be trivial to take them to a hotel and force them to quarantine.

The fact that after a year, Trudeau still can't manage to get international travellers to quarantine shows just how much of a failure he is.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I can't believe this far into the pandemic we still don't have a grasp on WHERE this is circulating and spreading.
> 
> Schools? Home gatherings? Airline travel?
> 
> I don't have any answers here, I'm just frustrated. Where is it circulating?


A lot of it is from in home gatherings, particularly during the holidays.
Airline travel is bringing in the foreign variants.

Schools, the data suggests that even in COVID hotspots it isn't spreading there. Sure there are cases (as the asymptomatic study shows), but they don't seem to be spreading.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> A lot of it is from in home gatherings, particularly during the holidays.
> Airline travel is bringing in the foreign variants.
> 
> *Schools, the data suggests that even in COVID hotspots it isn't spreading there. Sure there are cases (as the asymptomatic study shows), but they don't seem to be spreading.*


 ... I'm not so sure of that. I mean how can you detect stealth-mode?


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> I feel it’s from social interactions. I’ve seen interviews with contact tracers. People with covid say they haven’t gone anywhere...just for groceries. Then they ask them to review their call logs or bank accounts and then they suddenly remember all the places they’ve been. The areas in Peel and toronto being hardest hit are generally immigrants (English is not first language), multi-generational homes, working in factories or warehouses supporting grocers or Amazon, or the post offices. it’s mostly people who need to physically go to work to keep essential Businesses operational. There’s been a huge call for paid sick days as many are going to work sick because they need the money.


There have also been big workplace outbreaks at manufacturing businesses, particularly in food as it seems high density and refrigerated air seems to promote transmission. So meat packing plants, etc. These businesses would find it very difficult to maintain proper distancing and still be able to meet the needs of Canadians for food. Probably what should have been done is to identify these high risk/high need workplaces and assigned public health liaisons to make sure they are screening people (including random rapid testing) to nip outbreaks in the bud. Of course, many workers in this industry are recent immigrants who live in multigenerational households. They also can't afford not to work. It's a recipe for disaster, and this has been a reason why Peel and particularly Brampton has been so hard hit.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... I'm not so sure of that. I mean how can you detect stealth-mode?


Most of the time they find a case in a class, they only find that one case in that class.
If the child in the class is spreading it, you'd expect at least 1 of their classmates to also have it.

The data shows that isn't happening very often, so it seems like the kids in schools aren't giving it to other kids in the schools.

You think COVID19 turns on some "stealth mode" that fools the test?
I haven't heard that one yet.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Most of the time they find a case in a class, they only find that one case in that class.
> If the child in the class is spreading it, you'd expect at least 1 of their classmates to also have it.
> 
> The data shows that isn't happening very often, so it seems like the kids in schools aren't giving it to other kids in the schools.


 ... I'm not sure teachers are saying the same based on some local news read.



> You think COVID19 turns on some "stealth mode" that fools the test?
> I haven't heard that one yet.


 ... my definition of "stealth-mode=being asymptomatic". 

Interesting to see your POV question as here's a recent case for that question:

Woman who died after transplant surgery got COVID-19 from donated lungs, study finds



> ..._*The woman who underwent the transplant and the donor both tested negative for the coronavirus using a rapid polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test before the surgery,* the case report details._ ...
> 
> _Whole genome sequencing of the two women and a surgeon –who tested positive for COVID-19 days later – *showed that the disease likely originated in the organ donor and spread to the recipient and the surgeon during transplantation.* _


 ... even the surgeon got infected, if I'm reading this properly.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... I'm not sure teachers are saying the same based on some local news read.


I would bet that a teacher in a classroom which had 2+ students with COVID would say they had 2+ students with COVID.
They wouldn't likely be able to comment if that is the more or less common circumstance, which again is why I'm refering to the actual data of what has been happening in Ontario.



> ... my definition of "stealth-mode=being asymptomatic".


That's why they test the close contacts, even asymptomatic ones.
Also they did test several thousand asymptomatic students recently in a study to determine this.



> Interesting to see your POV question as here's a recent case for that question:
> 
> Woman who died after transplant surgery got COVID-19 from donated lungs, study finds
> 
> ... even the surgeon got infected, if I'm reading this properly.


Because they used a bad test.
it's well known that the fast PCR test gives a lot of false negatives, particularly during the early onset of COVID19.

Secondly, organ transplant recipients are incredibly immunocompromised, it's not at all surprising that the patient died.


In short, I think your response is a bunch of select anecdotes, and don't actually contradict the results of the data analysis.


----------



## OptsyEagle

When trying to work this stuff out in your mind, it helps if you consider that a child in elementary school probably has an equivalent immune system to a vaccinated person in a nursing home. Whether the vaccinated person is twice as good or 1/2 as good does not really matter much. It is the point that both will have very fast immune systems...but neither are immune (that term does not exist in real life, only in movies). If your immune system is top notch, you can still get infected. You can still infect others. But the time that those two events can last will be very short, when compared to unvaccinated older people, and therefore the damage they can unleash will be severely limited.

This was obvious from the early days. Younger people were not driving this pandemic. The teenagers were probably creating a bit of the problem, totally from their increased socializing then ever from their body's ability to transfer the virus to others. They just would not maintain an infection long enough to be a large problem for us.

This pandemic is being driven by people older then 35, gathering together indoors. This happens during social gatherings. It happens in workplaces and it happens in vehicles. That is where the majority of infections are coming from and definitely where the most dangerous ones are occurring.

Does that mean you have no risk in any other setting. Walking outside in the park, for example. No. It means the probability of a big problem coming from your activities will increase 1000 fold in the 3 environments I mentioned above and be about 1/1000 of the risk in most of the others.

This analogy also includes travelers. The problem from them pales in comparison to the precautions we are currently putting in place. It's become political, so I doubt it will change. It also does not mean there is no risk. It just means there is not as much risk as the other areas I mentioned above and almost all the risk is associated more with the traveler then the travel itself.

Of course, I cannot completely prove my opinion above. The required observations are sitting there for anyone, unbiased to see, but it comes from so many observations, it becomes almost unproveable to a society that requires someone else to give them a simplified answer to a fairly complex question .. but that does not mean it is not knowable by people who can see and work out what the observations most likely mean.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I would bet that a teacher in a classroom which had 2+ students with COVID would say they had 2+ students with COVID.
> They wouldn't likely be able to comment if that is the more or less common circumstance, which again is why I'm refering to the actual data of what has been happening in Ontario.
> 
> 
> That's why they test the close contacts, even asymptomatic ones.
> Also they did test several thousand asymptomatic students recently in a study to determine this.
> 
> 
> Because they used a bad test.
> it's well known that the fast PCR test gives a lot of false negatives, particularly during the early onset of COVID19.
> 
> Secondly, organ transplant recipients are incredibly immunocompromised, it's not at all surprising that the patient died.
> 
> 
> *In short, I think your response is a bunch of select anecdotes, and don't actually contradict the results of the data analysis.*


 ... we shall see. You can analyze data all day to see trends but in real life, things can change very quickly.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... we shall see. You can analyze data all day to see trends but in real life, things can change very quickly.


Well, you can rely on the data, from thousands of cases from thousands of schools, or what some teacher said.
I'll go with the data.

I'm not saying that a particular teacher is wrong, I'm saying their specific experience isn't reflective of the statistical reality.


----------



## Money172375

A lot of noise about school spread. You need to remember, there are cohorts in most schools. I just asked my son...he has 11 people in one class and about 30 in the other class. He has one subject we’re week, so he’s only exposed to 11 people (for an extended time) all week. Then exposure to 30 the following week. They have outdoor breaks, but the class stays together. They’ve changed end of day procedures, so the whole school doesn’t exit at the same time. It seems to be working, no cases at school all year....in fact no cases at any school in the city.

in the harder hit areas, high school students are only in class for half a day, every other day. It’s like 10 hours in school all week. If it was spreading in school, you’d hear more about multiple students in the same class becoming infected, or multiple students in the school being infected. These stories, if they exist, are rare. 

the Big numbers are factories, warehouses, multi-generational homes, LtC. Outside these 4, the cases are sporadic.


----------



## gibor365

_ If it was spreading in school, you’d hear more about multiple students in the same class becoming infected, or multiple students in the school being infected. These stories, if they exist, are rare._

This virus seriously affect people who is in 70+ category ...Younger people just have to be careful when visiting/interacting their parents/grandparents and that's what we do in our extended family


----------



## OptsyEagle

In my opinion, the large fear around schools, where people were afraid that the children were going to get infected at school and then bring that virus home to the older people in their house, was about 180 degrees incorrect in its concern. The Christmas explosion of child infections seem to confirm what I suspected was going on, in the 1st place, from the little tracing info we had and the science of how viral infections actually take place.

It was the adults that were infecting the children and then the children would go to school and transmit some fairly benign infections to each other and then go home and if they were still infectious (many would not be) they might transmit a few infections to the adults. Most of those adult infections would not end being too dangerous. In that statement, however, I am talking about the primary infections. Child child and child to 1st Adult infection. When that infected adult starts re-infecting other adults, we are back to the pandemic problem again of people dying.

Sill, if we can control the adults, the children should be able to do almost anything they want, especially go to school. And supposedly adults are smarter then children but as we know, that is not the case with all adults.


----------



## sags

Ontario has a lot of COVID cases in schools.



https://www.ontario.ca/page/covid-19-cases-schools-and-child-care-centres


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ontario has a lot of COVID cases in schools.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.ontario.ca/page/covid-19-cases-schools-and-child-care-centres


Not really
that's less than 10% of all cases, and school aged kids make up more than 10% of the population.

Also look at the number of cases per school board, they're in the single digits, also many school boards have only 1 case.

Also you have to remember that they're testing asymptomatic kids in schools, which inflates those numbers.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Ontario has a lot of COVID cases in schools.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.ontario.ca/page/covid-19-cases-schools-and-child-care-centres


I did not say that kids don't get infected. I did not say that kids cannot spread infection. What I said is that children's infections are significantly less dangerous to our society then adult infections. The main point is that for adults, staying home makes sense due to the severity of the problem they present, but with children staying home becomes a bigger problem then the problem that can come from them being in school.

Hopefully that is a little clearer. Anyway, it looks like the decision makers have figured this out, as well, so I won't argue a point where there is no winning argument that will be 100% correct.


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> Ontario has a lot of COVID cases in schools.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.ontario.ca/page/covid-19-cases-schools-and-child-care-centres


Reading that, I don't know if you can say ON has a lot without running the numbers and percentages. The actually number count is all relative. I didn't run it for ON, but rather AB.

In my province, school cases makes up about .64% of all cases, then when I use the same time period when kids went back to school at the end of August reducing the total numbers from before August, it was 0.74%. Looking at current active cases it's about 5% of kids in the school. I have also noticed that it is that certain schools have higher numbers are more consistent in cases. My kids school had there first case Feb 5, there have been no further cases. So having them in school makes sense, instead of having them on line for 700 kids. My friends school/classroom has shut down once completely, have had whole classroom sent home several time. They are managing it too.

I think the difficult part with this, is trying to find ways to keep people safe without making blanket statements that all kids should be at home. Each individual school has different means to deal with the population. They did a 'circuit breaker starting in November, having older kids go on line, and the continued with that will all kids for the first week of January. Ironically, my kids school due specialized complex learning need stayed open the whole time. No cases. 

The other things with our school, is the parents, teachers and students are really aware, I don't why so much more. Even in the first days when the province announced schools would be opening with no guidance, the parent council and concerned parents had already started to talk about measure, source ppe, and raise money for any thing the school would to protect everyone. I think if more people took action to protect themselves and those around them, we wouldn't need to wait for the government to tell us what do. But sadly, because of the selfish idiots, we need to do this.


----------



## james4beach

I just had my first video chat with family in Europe, since this couple caught covid

The husband (35 years old) is now out of hospital and recovered. He caught covid and developed pneumonia and said on today's chat that he thought he was going to die. He said he was terrified while in hospital, thinking about how he might die and leave their child without a father. The wife (a doctor) also caught it. She didn't end up in hospital but told me it was a very rough illness.

*I want to stress again that these are healthy people in their 30s... this is not an old person's disease.*

They both tried to impress on me how severe the illness felt. They said it's not a standard illness ... forget about doing anything social, it's just not worth the risk. Focus on protecting yourself.

The wife (a doctor) also told me an interesting story from her work colleagues. They said a group of 20 people had a very brief work celebration with a cake. The 20 guests all had masks, but were in a room together, and took slices of cake. They briefly removed their masks to eat cake. The entire thing was about 30 to 40 minutes.

Everyone in that room (all 20 people) caught COVID. And these are doctors... people who are careful.

A momentary lapse in judgement is all it takes. Keep wearing masks and don't socialize with people indoors - period.


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## Money172375

Ya, I’m beginning to wonder how effective these home made and no-name masks are. I assume everyone in LTC is wearing a mask, and most people are isolated in their own room.....yet the thing spreads regardless. I’m sure masks help, but if you’re spending a decent amount of time in close proximity, you gotta wonder.


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## OptsyEagle

Everyone in LTC are not wearing masks. Very difficult to eat and wear a mask at the same time. Plus, in the beginning of the pandemic, the sick were not isolated very well and they would have carried some very dangerous and therefore highly infectious infections.

Masks on the healthy person can only reduce your dose of infection. If you really want to override that AND wear a mask at the same time, it is quite simple. If your mask is a good one and reduces the dose of virus you receive through it by 80%, just spend 5 times as long in that contaminated environment and presto...you are back on tract for a visit to the ICU again. However, I don't think we should blame that event on the mask and it is probably fairly rare.

Masks cannot overcome stupidity, but they can reduce its affect to some degree. For the rest of us they will almost always save our lives.


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## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> Ya, I’m beginning to wonder how effective these home made and no-name masks are. I assume everyone in LTC is wearing a mask, and most people are isolated in their own room.....yet the thing spreads regardless. I’m sure masks help, but if you’re spending a decent amount of time in close proximity, you gotta wonder.


 ... I would be wondering about how effective would those "non-home-made" or "presumably surgical" masks were for those doctors mentioned in J4B's post.

Wow, every doc/healthcare worker got infected there. 

I'm curious as to what the test frequency is used for doctors, nurses, etc. in a hospital? I can see not so much for a doctor with his/her own practice as with dentists.


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## OptsyEagle

It's like my LTC analogy above. Even if the residents wear mask all the time they can, it only takes the time to eat dinner to give them a dangerous infection. If they have desert as well, that might end up fatal.

My analogy of the time of exposure and masks is probably more relevant to workplaces. From what I saw, at the beginning of this pandemic, many workplaces had a very loose attitude towards precautions. That either came from the managers own bias or from an attempt to please everyone. They would basically say..."if you want to wear a mask, go ahead, it is your choice". They probably felt pretty good about their liberal attitude.

Now think about those two scenarios above. In the 1st one a person removes their mask for 30 minutes and obtains a dangerous infection. Now look at the 2nd one. A person, who is cautious puts on a mask BUT the co-worker, working right beside him does not. How long is the average work day? 8 hours. Even if the persons mask can reduce the infection by 80%, 8 hours will give that worker, who is doing everything they can to protect themselves, *an infection equal to*: 8 hours divided by 1/2 hour = 16, multiplied by 20% (what gets through their mask) = *3.2 times larger then the person taking off their mask for dinner for 1/2 an hour.*

I could see that problem in June but what is the fine or penalty our leaders decided to render on workplaces who do not enforce covid precaution 100% of the time, including lunches and breaks? Where are the stories on this. I think I saw one about a meat packing plant in Alberta and in that one, no one had a mask on.

This is not difficult stuff to work out. But no, let's not worry about the multi-million Canadians going to work tomorrow and lets put a couple hundred people at the border to see if a traveler, after around 3 PCR tests, might still be bringing a new variant into the country or send some cops to Costco to make sure no one buys a toaster oven when they should only be buying potatoes.


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## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> ... I would be wondering about how effective would those "non-home-made" or "presumably surgical" masks were for those doctors mentioned in J4B's post.
> 
> Wow, every doc/healthcare worker got infected there.


But notice a few things.

The doctors in my story screwed up and REMOVED their masks. They were together for a long time, 30 to 40 minutes and had the masks off for a while as they ate.

(This is why I think eating in restaurants is so dangerous and stupid)

More importantly, there were 20 of them in a room! That's too many people. So they broke several rules. They brought many people together (like a party) and also removed their masks.


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## james4beach

PS my European doctor relative reminded me to wear good quality masks. But the mask isn't the only factor... you are supposed to both minimize contact with others AND wear a mask.

She said she'd only trust the disposable cheap surgical mask type (these are usually 3 layers) or a KN95 mask. I told her that I can buy the KN95 for about $4 each and she said that's great, she's paying more than $5 each for a KN95.

Her advice was ... stick to surgical masks and KN95. She also said that she likes doubling up the masks, for example a surgical mask on the inside with a cloth mask on the exterior, which is just to protect it a bit.

I'm on my way to Safeway right now, wearing my KN95. Why such a strong medical mask? (1) this isn't the quietest time of day, (2) I'm feeling a bit weak lately and think I might be more vulnerable


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> But notice a few things.
> 
> The doctors in my story screwed up and REMOVED their masks. They were together for a long time, 30 to 40 minutes and had the masks off for a while as they ate.
> 
> (This is why I think eating in restaurants is so dangerous and stupid)
> 
> *More importantly, there were 20 of them in a room! That's too many people.* So they broke several rules. They brought many people together (like a party) and also removed their masks.


 ... I guess doctors/nurses are humans too and subject to break protocols (bad though for a hospital).

But I thought they (especially those working in a hospital setting) would be getting tested frequently to ensure none of them are infected whilst working. Obviously, at least 1 person in that group had an active infection ... now imagine them making rounds with the patients after that party. Ugghh. Plus the circle of infections never get broken ... round and round ... outbreaks one after another. Ugggh.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> PS my European doctor relative reminded me to wear good quality masks. But the mask isn't the only factor... you are supposed to both minimize contact with others AND wear a mask.
> 
> She said she'd only trust the disposable cheap surgical mask type (these are usually 3 layers) or a KN95 mask. I told her that I can buy the KN95 for about $4 each and she said that's great, she's paying more than $5 each for a KN95.
> 
> Her advice was ... stick to surgical masks and KN95. She also said that she likes doubling up the masks, for example a surgical mask on the inside with a cloth mask on the exterior, which is just to protect it a bit.
> 
> I'm on my way to Safeway right now, wearing my KN95. Why such a strong medical mask? (1) this isn't the quietest time of day, (2) I'm feeling a bit weak lately and think I might be more vulnerable


 ... I think wearing masks will be with us even after the mass vaccination ... or until we see the infection rate dropping down to little or none. A year or 2 - my guess.


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## sags

We are not breaking the chains of infection with on and off shutdowns.

Our resistance to shutdowns has given the virus the ability to continue mutations.

This virus is not mutating as normal. It is mutating within weeks and getting ahead of the science.

Now there is a new mutation spreading rapidly in NYC. The vaccines are less effective against it.


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## OptsyEagle

What is a normal rate of mutation for a virus?

Two things to consider. The first is that mutation is just evolution. The difference is that the evolutionary time scale for a virus would be considered supersonic when compared to human evolution, for example. 2nd point is that it happens when one virus reproduces into two viruses. Just like all evolutionary changes.

Taking those two points above, one can see that how quickly we will see these new mutation will be a function of how many NEW C-19 viruses are born to this world in a given time frame. That will be a function of how many active viruses are currently attached to some persons cells and that will be a function of how many humans are currently infected.

So, yes, when the active infections are high, mutation will happen more rapidly. So, knowing that, what is the solution to this problem:

1) Put more police at the border
2) Wear 3 extra masks when we go outside
3) Reduce the number of active infections in the world

If you answered #3, then what is the only way we are going to reduce the number of active infections?

1) Vaccinate

If we are worried that some mutation may get produced that the vaccine does not work against, what is the answer to that:

*1) *Vaccinate everyone quicker (to reduce the time frequency of new mutations.)

What do a lot of people want to do, knowing that our vaccines were produced with other mutations in mind?

*-1)* Delay their vaccination so that they can get the new improved stuff that might work better with some other mutation.

What does that do?

Allows for more active infections so that the virus can continue to mutate quicker, eventually into a new structure where the new improved vaccine does not work well and some day, possibly into something very dangerous to a larger number of people...including those delaying their vaccination.

What does all this mean: Pfizer and Moderna get, very, very rich and we wear masks for a very long time.


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## andrewf

So far the only thing that has worked to reduce active infections is social distancing. Vaccines will help but we are just starting to get to a point in some countries where it will make a material difference. The other problem is that vaccines don't seem to prevent infection or transmission all that well, they just lessen symptoms. That's a victory to be sure, but we are still giving the virus abundant opportunities to mutate. Not sure the genie is going back in the bottle.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> We are not breaking the chains of infection with on and off shutdowns.


yes we are.
Look at the London data, you live here, you can see it.



> Our resistance to shutdowns has given the virus the ability to continue mutations.


Uhh, source that.



> This virus is not mutating as normal. It is mutating within weeks and getting ahead of the science.
> 
> Now there is a new mutation spreading rapidly in NYC. The vaccines are less effective against it.


Please support your claim that it is not mutating as normal?
Viruses mutate, it's normal, that how they work.

Please stop spreading misinformation, remember your friend Justin wants that to be a crime.


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## Money172375

I think taking whatever vaccine available is important This year. In 6-9 months, we’ll know a lot more. I’m predicting an annual or bi-annual booster to address variants. 

I’m shifting my attention to deaths and hospitalizations, and away from cases. local news reported that today was the first day in months without a LTC death In Ontario.


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## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> The other problem is that vaccines don't seem to prevent infection or transmission all that well, they just lessen symptoms. That's a victory to be sure, but we are still giving the virus abundant opportunities to mutate. Not sure the genie is going back in the bottle.


The vaccines will do a wonderful job reducing infections and reducing transmission.

I assume your point has to do with the fact that a vaccinated person can get infected AND can transmit the virus. That is true. What is also true, that makes that an almost non-issue is the fact that the infection a vaccinated person gets, will be neutralized in an incredibly short time, compared to what a non-vaccinated person can do. If the vaccine can neutralize the virus quicker for a vaccinated person, it will also neutralize the virus within that vaccinated person's breathing tracks, just as quick. Therefore a vaccinated person will be infectious for a very short period of time, compared to a non-vaccinated person, and for the majority of vaccinated people, due to the time it takes to become infectious in the 1st place (that takes a few days), will never maintain the virus long enough for that to happen. They will NEVER be infectious.

The vaccine will stop this virus in its tracks, in almost all directions the virus can go with one caviet: Will enough people get vaccinated to allow it to happen?


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## Money172375

As I predicted, we’re going back to lockdown to Monday. Officially, the third time. All due to the UK variant.


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## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> As I predicted, we’re going back to lockdown to Monday. Officially, the third time. All due to the UK variant.


At least 2 weeks you enjoyed "red zone" ... Curious if ski resort gonna be closed again?! My wife and daughter only last week went to Moonstone...

Luckily, Oakville is still open


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## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> At least 2 weeks you enjoyed "red zone" ... Curious if ski resort gonna be closed again?! My wife and daughter only last week went to Moonstone...
> 
> Luckily, Oakville is still open


I think ski hills stay open. Actually not much different between red and grey. No indoor gatherings. No barbers! Agh!


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## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> I think ski hills stay open. Actually not much different between red and grey. No indoor gatherings. No barbers! Agh!


Kinda the same ... for is the most important that Malls and restaurants are open... for my wife ski resorts 
but I agree that both red and grey sux


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## andrewf

Meanwhile, stay at home order in Peel is in place for at least another week. Seems like cases in Peel are flattening (not continuing to decline) which is concerning for our prospects of coming out of lockdown.


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## gibor365

andrewf said:


> Meanwhile, stay at home order in Peel is in place for at least another week.


Who cares ... Meanwhile we just got invited to go ice fishing next week somewhere North ...
Top officials ate travelling all around the World and we should sit home like under home arrest?!


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## gibor365

My mom Russian friend who lives in US, Caroline said that they (who has citizenship) can get vaccines in Russian embassy ... Hope that Israel gonna do it too


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## gibor365

Israel started shipping vaccines to its friends. (Where is Harper?!)

_ Israel's Army radio station reported that one delivery had already landed in Honduras.

Deputy Health Minister Yoav Kisch, a member of Netanyahu's Likud party, told the station that Gantz was jealous “of Netanyahu's achievements” and said Israel had more than enough vaccines to share with friends. He described the mission as a “strategic and political move at zero cost.”








Israeli plan to share vaccines frozen by legal questions


Israel's attorney general on Thursday said a plan by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ship surplus coronavirus vaccines to a group of friendly nations has been frozen while he determines whether the move was legal.




www.ctvnews.ca




_


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## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> (Where is Harper?!)


The last time I saw him, he was busy making American right wing propaganda videos for social media.


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## Beaver101

^


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> The last time I saw him, he was busy making American right wing propaganda videos for social media.


That's interesting.

Last I heard he was talking about improving wealth equality.
I guess wealth equality is now "American right wing propaganda"?

Is anything not "right wing" in your world?


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## Beaver101

This is behind a paywall but you can see the point via the headline:

Enjoy it while it lasts. Modelling warns another mass lockdown may be needed to control Ontario’s looming third wave

PS: For those who want to go WAAAH ... please direct your cries to the expert-modelers.


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## sags

Not good. People are getting tired of being locked up and not able to do anything.

I think the government at all levels should have built mini sports courts.....small areas that 1-2 people can use, road hockey areas for 1-2 people etc.

Put a wall at one end so they could bang a tennis ball off it or throw a rubber ball and catch it or kick a soccer ball against it.

Gotta give the kids a place to blow off steam. It could be done safely with some thought behind it. Put fencing and screening between rows of hoops or hockey nets for example. Make the areas too small for more than a kid or two to use. Gotta start thinking what they are going to do all summer.

After the pandemic is gone they could still be used. Call it infrastructure spending........


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> Not good. People are getting tired of being locked up and not able to do anything.
> 
> I think the government at all levels should have built mini sports courts.....small areas that 1-2 people can use, road hockey areas for 1-2 people etc.
> 
> Put a wall at one end so they could bang a tennis ball off it or throw a rubber ball and catch it or kick a soccer ball against it.
> 
> Gotta give the kids a place to blow off steam. It could be done safely with some thought behind it. Put fencing and screening between rows of hoops or hockey nets for example. Make the areas too small for more than a kid or two to use. Gotta start thinking what they are going to do all summer.
> 
> After the pandemic is gone they could still be used. Call it infrastructure spending........


1. That would be very expensive.
2. It would be unsafe.
3. For the first several months playgrounds were closed.
4. During lockdowns they were discouraging all gatherings they even ticketed families that were out rollerblading together, don't you remember?

My kids and I just played in the street or the park by ourselves. Did lots of biking.


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## agent99

Got call today. Vaccination tomorrow for both of us. Lot's of openings, we just picked a convenient time. Being done at sports arena.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> This is behind a paywall but you can see the point via the headline:
> 
> Enjoy it while it lasts. Modelling warns another mass lockdown may be needed to control Ontario’s looming third wave
> 
> PS: For those who want to go WAAAH ... please direct your cries to the expert-modelers.


Why the antagonistic tone to an obviously disappointing possibility?

And we've seen the models be off by factors of 10 last spring, why shouldn't people question them this spring? They're just models, not reality. 

Makes me appreciate albertas plan even more. 
Make data based decisions, and react if there are changes in data. If we relied on models my elementary aged kids would probably still be trying to homeschool right now.


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## Tostig

Denialism and skepticism during a pandemic throughout history isn't new. Articles I have read show that even during the Spanish Flu (which started in Kansas USA) or during the Black Death, authorities were having problems keeping skeptics to obey their quarantines. Someone can fact-check this for the exact details. I'm writing based on memory with what I had read over the past year.

And as for smallpox, I remember a high school text book copy of an editorial cartoon showing how people who were receiving the vaccines were turning into cows.

And now, maybe then too, there's a faction of people who think this is all about population control to take away freedoms.

This is something the authorities should work into their future plans, for predictable percentage of the population to be resistant against any pandemic-fighting efforts.


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## OptsyEagle

I don't think there is much about models that we can add that the leaders don't understand. We have to create them because it can give a good visualization of "how important" a particular decision is. Also, we should all know by now, that infections are the number one factor that leads to more infections (Rule #1). So modeling them is important, but as we know, predictions about the future are always difficult but that is more the fault of the future then it is of us trying to predict it.

As for the cartoon pictures of vaccinated people turning into cows. That would probably come from someone, who does not really understand much about the obstacles involved in developing a vaccine to combat a virus, as deadly as small pox was. This joke would come from them finding out that the small pox vaccine was actually made from cow pox virus. In any case, they did this solely due to the fact that, back then, it was much safer to create a vaccine from cow pox virus, instead of using virus, even in a weakened form, from such a deadly virus such as small pox. I believe cow pox vaccine worked quite well in the fight against small pox.


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## gibor365

> I think the government at all levels should have built mini sports courts.....small areas that 1-2 people can use, road hockey areas for 1-2 people etc.


Are you joking?! Mississauga with close to 1M people has only 3 outdoor skating rinks , nothing in West End. it's impossible to book time in 3 that exist. I'm fighting for years to open new skating rinks


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## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> Why the antagonistic tone to an obviously disappointing possibility?


 ... you might find the answer to your question if you read from the very beginning of this thread which is still ongoing.



> And we've seen the models be off by factors of 10 last spring, why shouldn't people question them this spring? They're just models, not reality.


 ... I would hoped to believe they're "just" "models " like some virtual computer game but some folks live and breathe by models as if they were the holy bible. So I would be careful to state that "they're just models, not reality".



> Makes me appreciate albertas plan even more.
> Make data based decisions, and react if there are changes in data. If we relied on models my elementary aged kids would probably still be trying to homeschool right now.


 ... well, the headline is for Ontario, not Alberta so not applicable to you. And our (Ontario) public health experts do very much "rely" on models (which is data-based if understood correctly ie. not pulled out from thin air) to make decisions for the public as ugly as that reality it is.


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## Bananatron

Honestly I think models have next to zero value now that we have real world data to make decisions off of. We know what effects closing schools, restaurants, etc have. 

Unless of course it's the "hyperinfectious" variants, then we're all doomed regardless.


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## sags

Thousands of kids are piling into the Florida beach areas for spring break. It is party time now that Florida opened back up.

Super spreader events all over Florida, Texas,.......? COVID........what COVID ?









Florida beaches fill with Spring Breakers sparking fears of deadly Covid spike


SPRING breakers heading to Florida have sparked fears of yet another Covid surge. College students were spotted in crowds on the sandy beaches, as nearly 2,000 Americans yesterday died from Covid-1…




www.the-sun.com


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## Beaver101

^ Florida is all prepared for either case scenarios - best one is one gigantic experiment for herd immunity ... amongst the youngsters there. 

Worst one is it won the bid (over Texas and Arizona) for the mass grave project Florida Wins Government Bid to Become Mass Grave. Covid is an after-thought over there.


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## sags

Florida governor DeSantis wants to be Prez and is pandering to the Trumpsters at all costs.........all costs to other people that is.


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## sags

Ontario isn't doing so hot lately either. Hovering around 1,000 new cases a day and people still dying from COVID.

If we open up again, we will have another major wave of infections and everything will close down again.

Our local vaccinations are a mess. The over 80 crowd booked solid all the vaccinations appointments until the end of March. Many didn't get an appointment.

The local medical officer was roasted in the opinion section of the local paper and didn't like it much. He went on social media to complain about it.

The people especially didn't like the fact that he was paid an extra $100,000 for what they consider to be "mishandling" of the pandemic


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Ontario isn't doing so hot lately either. Hovering around 1,000 new cases a day and people still dying from COVID.
> 
> If we open up again, we will have another major wave of infections and everything will close down again.
> 
> Our local vaccinations are a mess. The over 80 crowd booked solid all the vaccinations appointments until the end of March. Many didn't get an appointment.
> 
> *The local medical officer was roasted in the opinion section of the local paper and didn't like it much. He went on social media to complain about it.
> 
> The people especially didn't like the fact that he was paid an extra $100,000 for what they consider to be "mishandling" of the pandemic*


 ... if I may ask, which region is this medical officer in? You don't have to provide the answer (for privacy reason) ... as I wonder what is its regional mayor's response on that. I hope there is one there.

Pretty brazen and amazing for a medical officer (being paid an extra $100K too) to go on "social media to complain" about his constituents' dissatisfaction for his/her ineptness in handling a public health crisis ... that person must have feelings of no shame to start off with.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> Florida governor DeSantis wants to be Prez and is pandering to the Trumpsters at all costs.........all costs to other people that is.


I read somewhere that at the peak, Florida’s hospital capacity was at 75%....meanwhile in Ontario, we were pretty close to 100%. This is, I think, the biggest reason for how different regions handled the pandemic.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> Ontario isn't doing so hot lately either. Hovering around 1,000 new cases a day and people still dying from COVID.
> 
> If we open up again, we will have another major wave of infections and everything will close down again.
> 
> Our local vaccinations are a mess. The over 80 crowd booked solid all the vaccinations appointments until the end of March. Many didn't get an appointment.
> 
> The local medical officer was roasted in the opinion section of the local paper and didn't like it much. He went on social media to complain about it.
> 
> The people especially didn't like the fact that he was paid an extra $100,000 for what they consider to be "mishandling" of the pandemic


Well, there sure is a lot of confidence around vaccines in Ontario. Both Trudeau, Ford and Hillier said everyone who is eligible should have their first shot much sooner than the original sept timeline. Hillier has set an ambitious goal of June 20 for everyone to have their first shot. I’m giving it another 2-3 weeks....we should hopefully start to see some much bigger numbers.

for what it’s worth, each of the last 4 days has set a new daily record for vaccines. Went from 27k, 30k, 35k, 39k. there is capacity to do 160k a day if there is supply. Right now, Ontario is getting about 175k doses per week (for the rest of the month) from Pfizer. Data from Moderna harder to find, AZ and J&J on top of that but I suspect we won’t see any til April.


----------



## sags

A sample of some of the letters to the editor......









Letters to the Editor: March 5


Vaccination plan totally inadequate Re: Health unit opens up 6,900 more COVID shot slots (March 4).




lfpress.com


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## andrewf

Third wave taking off in Ottawa. 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367860126011568128


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## james4beach

andrewf said:


> Third wave taking off in Ottawa.


Sigh, that's unfortunate.

People might start getting the wrong idea as vaccinations occur. It will take a while for vaccination to have enough of a community-wide effect. People have to continue being very cautious and sticking to safety measures for a while, but I wonder now if people will have trouble remaining cautious in the coming months.


----------



## andrewf

Seems like the UK variant is swiftly becoming the dominant strain in most of Europe, but still just starting to penetrate North America.



https://news.yahoo.com/speedy-variants-power-virus-surge-072521297.html



Seems pretty nasty, being significantly more infectious and apparently also more harmful. The vaccine won't stop a third wave in Ontario (but since most LTC will be vaccinated ought to see lower deaths and hospital strain) .Hopefully it will be deployed widely soon enough to stop a 4th wave driven by UK variant. And that the vaccine is effective against the variants. It would be great if we don't end up in a whackamole situation with new variants and boosters to knock them down.


----------



## Beaver101

Doesn't look like a good sign of things to come for Toronto either:

Field hospital being set up outside Toronto’s Sunnybrook hospital in preparation for possible third wave of COVID-19


----------



## Money172375

I’m predicting a return to lockdown in Ontario. The 3rd wave is imminent. Hope it’s a small wave, or as I learned today, called a wavelet. The wave and mass vaccines are on a collision course, but I don’t think the vaccines will have the upper hand until late April or May.

we went back to lockdown for one week after opening up.....now back in the ”red zone”. 

gonna hit almost 20 degrees today in Ontario.....enjoy it!


----------



## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> I read somewhere that at the peak, Florida’s hospital capacity was at 75%....meanwhile in Ontario, we were pretty close to 100%. This is, I think, the biggest reason for how different regions handled the pandemic.


Interesting .... because July articles say that over fifty were at 100% ICU capacity.

I don't recall if it was a Florida article ... but in response to a politician saying hospitals are a business, they always run near capacity, a doctor pointed out that additional beds had been added so that the 90+% the politician was downplaying was more like 130% of the pre-covid capacity.


Bottom line is that as usual, the devil is in the details. 

Cheers


----------



## gibor365

Disneyland is back to business!
_Walt Disney World Resort in Florida is showing no availability at all four of its theme parks for next week and limited availability the rest of the month at some parks, the reservation website shows. From March 13 through March 19, Magic Kingdom, Disney's Animal Kingdom, Epcot and Disney's Hollywood Studios are showing no availability for either guests seeking only theme park tickets or resort guests seeking tickets. _


----------



## Beaver101

^ Best news I heard from Florida ... DisneyWorld is all booked up ... yippeee!

Forgot to add - I don't own any Disney stocks and have never been (nor do I care to visit there) whilst in the US.


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> Doesn't look like a good sign of things to come for Toronto either:
> 
> Field hospital being set up outside Toronto’s Sunnybrook hospital in preparation for possible third wave of COVID-19



Update: Here we (Ontario) go again ... 3rd wave coming from the mouths of the expert modellers ... 

COVID-19 case declines have 'stalled;' Ontario model says 6,000 cases a day possible by April



> _The scientific director of the Science Table said Thursday that a *third lockdown,**even more restrictive than what existed in the past, is inevitable.*
> 
> *The levelling off in case declines has already showed up in hospitalizations, with hospital occupancy no longer on the decline and ICU occupancy climbing slightly in recent days.*
> 
> Under the most optimistic scenario, ICU occupancy due to COVID-19 will reach 390 beds by the end of March, with the worst case scenario seeing 650 beds filled by that time.
> 
> The modellers say what is done in the next few weeks, irrespective of the vaccine rollout, will determine a lot about the next few months.
> 
> Brown said the province is still “two or three weeks away” from seeing case and hospitalization declines due to the rise in the number of people who have received a COVID-19 vaccine.
> “Our behaviour over the next few months is critical in determining the quality of our summer,” modellers wrote in their briefing._


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> Update: Here we (Ontario) go again ... 3rd wave coming from the mouths of the expert modellers ...
> 
> COVID-19 case declines have 'stalled;' Ontario model says 6,000 cases a day possible by April


60,000 cases a day is also possible LOL

and lift lockdowns as "experts" predict that anyway we are screwed LOL


----------



## gibor365

Now I'm listening live podcast of Mississauga's Major - Bonnie ...What a stupid creature! Gonna shut her down now as my blood pressure is going up LOL


End lockdowns, let us live!!!


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> Now I'm listening live podcast of Mississauga's Major - Bonnie ...What a stupid creature! Gonna shut her down now as my blood pressure is going up LOL
> 
> 
> End lockdowns, let us live!!!


She’s calling for looser restrictions.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> She’s calling for looser restrictions.


and I'm calling for lifting up lockdown completely! No difference in results 
She didn't even manage to negotiate AZ vaccine for pilot project....Hamilton did...
Peel is a shithole of the province shithole of the country shithole LOL


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> and I'm calling for lifting up lockdown completely! No difference in results
> She didn't even manage to negotiate AZ vaccine for pilot project....Hamilton did...
> Peel is a shithole of the province shithole of the country shithole LOL


Have you thought about leaving or running for office?


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> and I'm calling for lifting up lockdown completely! No difference in results


It's not like you "have to" obey the lockdown ... right?


----------



## gibor365

I don't, but small businesses I'd like to visit aren't allowed to open for already 1 year


----------



## gibor365

_The momentum in the United States is clearly propelling them to find reasons to re-open. Whereas the momentum here in Ontario — where Toronto and Peel are the most locked down jurisdictions in North America — is all about finding excuses to keep things closed. 








FUREY: Ontario's virus goalposts have shifted -- but to what?


What is it that Ontario's actually trying to accomplish now with its COVID-19 response? What's the objective? What's the game plan?




torontosun.com




_


----------



## gibor365

From Ontario MPP Roman Baber


> I cited the Stats Can report re excess mortality from Covid vs. excess mortality from other causes & asked
> @celliottability
> to save lives by ending the Lockdown. She didn't intend to but admitted that Ontario postponed 227,000 surgeries! The human toll is incalculable.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370150465497919491


----------



## gibor365

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369996705098252291


----------



## MrBlackhill

It's kinda funny how we are all enthusiastic about the vaccines, the recovery and the end of COVID, but then when I look at these graphs... The world is still far from being done with COVID.


























We are already mid-March. In Canada, only 5% of the population had a _first_ dose of the vaccine. Will we be able to see some people during the summer? Will that lead to another wave? At least, the graphs for Canada don't look as bad as the graphs for the world.

We still have lots of new daily cases though.










But daily deaths are significantly reduced.










I haven't watched the news to know when we think we'll be done with the vaccination, but at this rate it's gonna take the whole year...


----------



## Bananatron

We'll have the entire adult population with one shot in the arm by the end of June. That will be the end of Coronavirus as we know it (restrictions and masks).


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> We'll have the entire adult population with one shot in the arm by the end of June. That will be the end of Coronavirus as we know it (restrictions and masks).


Stop joking , it's not April 1 yet! LOL
P.S. Oh, maybe you meant "by end of June" 2022?! it can be realistic!


----------



## MrBlackhill

Bananatron said:


> We'll have the entire adult population with one shot in the arm by the end of June. That will be the end of Coronavirus as we know it (restrictions and masks).


That's the current forcast? End of June, that's about 100 days from now. That means something like 300,000 doses per day. We're currently barely at 80,000 to 100,000 doses per day. They gotta accelerate.


----------



## Bananatron

MrBlackhill said:


> That's the current forcast? End of June, that's about 100 days from now. That means something like 300,000 doses per day. We're currently barely at 80,000 to 100,000 doses per day. They gotta accelerate.


Yup. Ontario is hugely gearing up for mass vaccinations, alberta and bc have committed to that timeline as well.









14.5M Canadians to be immunized by June, updated vaccination timeline shows


The federal government has released an updated COVID-19 vaccination timeline, showing that at least 14.5 million Canadians will be able to be immunized by the end of June with the approved Pfizer-BioNtech and Moderna shots.




www.google.com


----------



## Bananatron

gibor365 said:


> Stop joking , it's not April 1 yet! LOL
> P.S. Oh, maybe you meant "by end of June" 2022?! it can be realistic!


Watch.


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> Yup. Ontario is hugely gearing up for mass vaccinations, alberta and bc have committed to that timeline as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 14.5M Canadians to be immunized by June, updated vaccination timeline shows
> 
> 
> The federal government has released an updated COVID-19 vaccination timeline, showing that at least 14.5 million Canadians will be able to be immunized by the end of June with the approved Pfizer-BioNtech and Moderna shots.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com


I'm surprised that somebody is believing to Trudeau and ...."our top doctor" Tam Tam
_These figures are based on how much vaccine supply Canada will have, and it will be on the provinces and territories to execute a timely administration of these doses. The federal public health agency is also cautioning that the estimates are “subject to change based on the progress of ongoing clinical trials, regulatory reviews, the scale-up of supply chains and ongoing supplier engagement.” _

This article 1 month old and Ontario still couldn't overpass 40K vaccines per day


----------



## Bananatron

gibor365 said:


> I'm surprised that somebody is believing to Trudeau and ...."our top doctor" Tam Tam
> _These figures are based on how much vaccine supply Canada will have, and it will be on the provinces and territories to execute a timely administration of these doses. The federal public health agency is also cautioning that the estimates are “subject to change based on the progress of ongoing clinical trials, regulatory reviews, the scale-up of supply chains and ongoing supplier engagement.” _
> 
> This article 1 month old and Ontario still couldn't overpass 40K vaccines per day


The vaccines are currently arriving. We're not sitting on a huge backlog of vaccines. 

You can check the gap here: 





__





COVID-19 Tracker Canada - Vaccine Gap Visualization


Visualize how doses delivered to Canadian provinces compare with doses administered over time with our interactive Vaccine Gap visualization.



covid19tracker.ca





We're administering them as fast as they come in. 

As I said earlier, watch and see. I can't speak for all provinces but this **** will be done in alberta by Canada day, 2021.


----------



## gibor365

*Former Ontario chief medical officer against lockdown*









Former Ontario chief medical officer sides with Roman Baber on lockdowns


A former provincial top doctor has sent a letter to Ontario Premier Doug Ford siding with Roman Baber.




torontosun.com


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> 60,000 cases a day is also possible LOL
> 
> and lift lockdowns as "experts" predict that anyway we are screwed LOL


 ... yep, and we're all in it together.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> *Former Ontario chief medical officer against lockdown*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Former Ontario chief medical officer sides with Roman Baber on lockdowns
> 
> 
> A former provincial top doctor has sent a letter to Ontario Premier Doug Ford siding with Roman Baber.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> torontosun.com


 .. I wonder if this "former" ON chief medical officer has taken a visit to the ICU units lately in "a hospital in Ontario", that is?


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> I don't, but small businesses I'd like to visit aren't allowed to open for already 1 year


 ... ever heard of "online" e-commerce? The irony ... for some "IT" specialist.

Oh wait, that won't apply for strip clubs.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> From Ontario MPP Roman Baber
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370150465497919491


 .. Baber .. the Blabbing mouthing MPP without a brain, only to quote that " 227,000" surgeries needed to be postponed? Why? Does he think an infected/sick surgeon can operate? What about nurses, the rest of the sick team. Duh.

Plus that supposedly KK Kaur "MD", time to give up the medical licence and be a Twit sensationalist instead, like that other KK ... easier job for her.


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> This article 1 month old and Ontario still couldn't overpass 40K vaccines per day


You can't inject a vaccine you don't have.

Ontario is already prepping to distribute the COVID19 vaccine just like they did with the flu vaccine.
The performance of the Flu vaccine distribution last fall was astonishingly good considering demand was so much higher than normal, and the typical mass flu vaccination plan was not usable.

I think Christine Elliot is doing a phenomenal job with this. I think she would have been a very good Premier.


----------



## sags

Interesting discussion on MSNBC last night. They talked about a number of new "treatments" for COVID infected patients that work very well to eliminate the worst symptoms of the virus.

The question was........why aren't the treatments being widely used ?

Dr. Fauci was a guest and answered the questions.

The treatments require IV infusion and that simply isn't practical on a mass scale of infections. The scientists are working on formulations that can be given via an injection or pill form, which could then be widely available.

He also said that for some previous treatments......autoimmune whatever it is, the variants are efficiently bypassing the drug. This virus is very good at re-inventing itself to survive.

He also said it was crucially important the world be vaccinated globally, because any ability of the virus to mutate anywhere in the world poses a danger to everyone. He fears a mutation that is more infectious and deadly for which we have no vaccine or treatments.

Bottom line........the vaccinations and research need to continue and that requires continual funding.

Unfortunately there is a group of people who think the vaccines are a cure for the virus, and everything can open up without precautions.......like before the pandemic.

That is a false premise and we will have to remain vigilant and may not be able to return fully to the way things used to be, until we have a cure that eliminates the virus.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Interesting discussion on MSNBC last night. They talked about a number of new "treatments" for COVID infected patients that work very well to eliminate the worst symptoms of the virus.
> 
> The question was........why aren't the treatments being widely used ?


The treatments are being used.
Look up, we have more cases, but lower death rates.
Sure we killed off a lot of elderly people early, but part of the lower death rate is the better treatments we're using now.

Of course we're not using the incredibly expensive treatments, because THEY'RE INCREDIBLY EXPENSIVE.


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> ... ever heard of "online" e-commerce? The irony ... for some "IT" specialist.
> 
> Oh wait, that won't apply for strip clubs.


It does apply to many venues except strip clubs, and if this is what first came to your mind , I feel sorry for you LOL


----------



## gibor365

The real medical and public health scientists condemning lockdowns








Stanford Doctor: Reversing COVID Lockdown Damage Will 'Take a Generation'


"It's absolutely devastating the amount of damage that it's done worldwide, especially to the poor," Bhattacharya told Newsweek.




www.newsweek.com





_As of Thursday, the Great Barrington Declaration had amassed signatures from 13,705 medical and public health scientists, 41,455 medical practitioners and 754,399 "concerned citizens."_


----------



## gibor365

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370352854632955914
End lockdown , stop killing people!


----------



## sags

COVID cases are rising in Ontario.

10% of infections are now found in the public schools. LTC homes have an increase in infections. The variants are spreading rapidly. We may be looking at a third wave, worse than the first 2 waves.

Opening up a little is already costing lives. 

Stop screwing around with lives and lock it down until vaccinations are complete.


----------



## gibor365

> LTC homes have an increase in infections


 but Ontario health reported that all LTC residents are vaccinated! Fake news?!

From lockdowns related issues we have more deaths than from Covid itself. And it would go in geometric progression/

End lockdown and quit screwing around with lives.


----------



## sags

Don't know......but 6 LTA homes in our city have an infection outbreak.

We also have many schools with outbreaks, and one more closed down today due to 3 cases in the school.

Outbreaks all over Ontario.

I don't believe anything coming from the Ford government.

They are incompetent or liars.....and sometimes both.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I would be curious if they are testing the people in LTC who are getting sick or if they are randomly testing these people. The reason I ask is we can expect that some asymptomatic infections will still arise, even after vaccination. That does not mean they will but logic tells me that there is a very good chance there will be a few, and more within the older age groups.

Remember, the drug companies tested vaccine efficacy by only observing "symptomatic" infections. They did not do any or very much random testing of trial participants and therefore they have no idea how many asymptomatic infections happened within the vaccinated group of trial participants. I don't think this will be a big problem but the surprise of this for some people might cause some angst and I would be interested to know if I am right.


----------



## gibor365

> don't believe anything coming from the Ford government.
> 
> They are incompetent or liars.....and sometimes both.


I agree with you on this one. Ontario health even couldn't give correct numbers by number of cases and number of vaccine.

Trudeau failed Canada and Ford failed Ontario!



> We also have many schools with outbreaks, and one more closed down today due to 3 cases in the school.


 Kids don't get vaccines and won't get vaccines. It will be forever


----------



## Beaver101

Duplicate deleted.


----------



## Eclectic12

OptsyEagle said:


> I would be curious if they are testing the people in LTC who are getting sick or if they are randomly testing these people ....


Can't comment beyond the LTC place near me. 

Staff have gone from one test a week to two and now three a week.
Residents are only tested as long as they are negative.


Since about Oct, except for the occasional resident returning from the hospital that tests positive before the quarantine is up. The LTC is in almost constantly in outbreak because management has brought in extra staff from the surrounding area. Almost all of the new cases are these staff testing positive as opposed to staff that is local or residents.


Cheers


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> I agree with you on this one. Ontario health even couldn't give correct numbers by number of cases and number of vaccine.
> 
> Trudeau failed Canada and Ford failed Ontario!
> *
> Kids don't get vaccines and won't get vaccines. It will be forever*


 ... so what do you suggestion as a solution gibor, other than loudly bi1tching on this forum, now in particular to your point #3.


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> ... so what do you suggestion as a solution gibor, other than loudly bi1tching on this forum, now in particular to your point #3.


End lockdowns. Kick Trudeau and Ford out of offices.

Death rate among kids us practically 0 , it much less severe for kids than flu. You can do nothing until there will be vaccine that safe for kids 100%


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370352854632955914
> End lockdown , stop killing people!


 ... I think those cancer specialists/oncologists need to "speak-up" themselves, or have a talk directly with the current (ON) Chief Medical officer and/or even Ms. Elliot the health minister instead of horn-blaring it uselessly through Twitter via Baber. Are those medical experts that timid?


----------



## Money172375

3 more regions in Ontario moving to stricter controls. Hang on.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> End lockdowns.


 ... say we do that hypothetically, does this mean you won't get infected? Are you okay with that? 



> Kick Trudeau and Ford out of offices.


 .. and who do you suggest replace them? And does the "them" have a plan? 



> Death rate among kids us practically 0 , it much less severe for kids than flu.


 .. yes, no doubt. And so it's just the parents who will die, correct? So what happens to the kids once the parents are gone?



> You can do nothing until there will be vaccine that safe for kids 100%


 ... and what happens in the meantime when there's no vaccine for kids, under NO LOCKDOWN? They're free to infect others, meaning including their parents. And the parents are free to infect others like friends, strangers, etc. So what does this mean? BACK TO LOCKDOWN unless you want the parents dead.


----------



## Money172375

Peel Public Health has just issued a Section 22 order to Amazon Canada, requiring workers at 8050 Heritage Road in Brampton to self-isolate until March 27, due to a COVID-19 outbreak. It is effective at 12:01 a.m. on March 13.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Eclectic12 said:


> Can't comment beyond the LTC place near me.
> 
> Staff have gone from one test a week to two and now three a week.
> Residents are only tested as long as they are negative.
> 
> 
> Since about Oct, except for the occasional resident returning from the hospital that tests positive before the quarantine is up. The LTC is in almost constantly in outbreak because management has brought in extra staff from the surrounding area. Almost all of the new cases are these staff testing positive as opposed to staff that is local or residents.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Thanks. My suspicions of asymptomatic infections within vaccinated people, should be able to be confirmed or rejected with the random testing of the workers. The residents might have a slightly higher frequency, however. In any case, it should not be a large number.

The way I figure it, if Pfizer had 6 symptomatic infections within the 20,000 people they vaccinated during their 6 month trial, there probably was another 20 or so asymptomatic infections they did not know about. Still a fairly small number and these people, may not even be infectious. If they are infectious they should not be infectious for very long and most importantly they won't die.

Thanks for your reply. Just something I am keeping an eye out for. There is another scenario where there will be almost no asymptomatic infections within the vaccinated world but I won't bore you with that theory. It is a little weaker but still plausible.


----------



## Bananatron

Holy **** I think ontario might go down as the worst place to have lived during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020.

A current r value of 1.01, the same amount of new daily cases per capita as alberta and bc, yet the population is promised one final month long lockdown, stricter than ever before, to flatten the curve. 

But yes, the variants.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... say we do that hypothetically, does this mean you won't get infected? Are you okay with that?
> 
> .. and who do you suggest replace them? And does the "them" have a plan?
> 
> .. yes, no doubt. And so it's just the parents who will die, correct? So what happens to the kids once the parents are gone?
> 
> ... and what happens in the meantime when there's no vaccine for kids, under NO LOCKDOWN? They're free to infect others, meaning including their parents. And the parents are free to infect others like friends, strangers, etc. So what does this mean? BACK TO LOCKDOWN unless you want the parents dead.


I'm sure you know this, but death rate for parents of school aged children (50 and under) is about 1 in every 2500 cases, including those with existing conditions. Albertas actual cfr is 38 deaths in about 74,500 cases for that demographic. That's about one death for every 1960 cases, or .05%. Not 5%, not half of a percent, one twentieth of one percent.

For healthy middle aged adults and younger, the death rate is negligible.

50+ need to sit tight till they can get the shot.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> ....
> 
> For healthy middle aged adults and younger, *the death rate is negligible.*


 ... not taking your statement seriously here as it's so easy for you to say this.... try telling this to those lying in the ICU unit.



> 50+ need to sit tight till they can get the shot.


 ... even then those vaccinated 50+ will continue to b1tch about the restrictions... what? Still masks required visiting the store? What? Still can't go to the gym, local bar or salon or have my favourite sufganiyot indining. What? No social gatherings of any sorts? What? I still have to WFH. Plus still all those rules by all our inept politicians and public health officers ... etc., etc., etc. 

Plus I rather be anywhere else in the world than here in Canada (Ontario that is). That's how tight I'll be sitting ... LOL.


----------



## gibor365

> 50+ need to sit tight till they can get the shot.


 it's also not true! In Mississauga with population just below 1M, there were only 9 deaths from Covid in age bracket 50-59 for whole year!


----------



## gibor365

Instead of shutting down 15M province, Ontario government could've prevent most vulnerable by fraction of the cost by providing special dedicated website and hot line where seniors 60+ could've order food from big groceries chains (like RCSS, Metro etc) with discount and free delivery. But for our stupid government is easier just lock down all province .... and later to raise taxes...


----------



## Money172375

There will be continued frustration even when vaccines take hold.

biden wants to have all adults vaccinated by May 1 and says they MAY be able to gather in small groups by July 4. Vaccines may give peace of mind, but mask mandates and small gatherings will still apply. at least in Ontario.


----------



## gibor365

Even Mississauga major requested to move city from Grey to red zone, by indicating that Reproductive number in city is below 1. But retarded ontario government declined! What a bunch of morons! 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370491387620298754


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... not taking your statement seriously here as it's so easy for you to say this.... try telling this to those lying in the ICU unit.
> 
> ... even then those vaccinated 50+ will continue to b1tch about the restrictions... what? Still masks required visiting the store? What? Still can't go to the gym, local bar or salon or have my favourite sufganiyot indining. What? No social gatherings of any sorts? What? I still have to WFH. Plus still all those rules by all our inept politicians and public health officers ... etc., etc., etc.
> 
> Plus I rather be anywhere else in the world than here in Canada (Ontario that is). That's how tight I'll be sitting ... LOL.


Icu rate for that demographic (0-49) is .3%, or 3 for every thousand cases. 

This includes those with preexisting conditions, those already in hospital, undergoing chemo,etc.

Negligible for healthy people under 50.

Why would you not take my statement seriously? Unbelievable? The stats are there for all to see on albertas website.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Instead of shutting down 15M province, Ontario government could've prevent most vulnerable by fraction of the cost by providing* special dedicated website and hot line where seniors 60+ could've order food from big groceries chains (like RCSS, Metro etc) with discount and free delivery.* But for our stupid government is easier just lock down all province .... and later to raise taxes...


 ... ah, not all seniors 60+ are as tech-savvy as you are, 2. I don't think shareholders of RCSS/Metro etc., will be happy to see a discount on their dividends, nothing to say about Executives having to take a cut on their compensations. [Psst ... don't forget the pandemic "bonus" pay for front-line workers... has to be recouped somehow.], and 3. LMAO on free delivery ... how are these house-bounded seniors getting their medications currently? Or what are their kids (provided they have one) doing in the meantime?

And yes, it's free to dream and post wishes on here.


----------



## Bananatron

gibor365 said:


> Instead of shutting down 15M province, Ontario government could've prevent most vulnerable by fraction of the cost by providing special dedicated website and hot line where seniors 60+ could've order food from big groceries chains (like RCSS, Metro etc) with discount and free delivery. But for our stupid government is easier just lock down all province .... and later to raise taxes...


The case previously was that with uncontrolled spread, you could not protect the most vulnerable - those that require care from others. 

Now, they've been vaccinated for a month or more, we need to lock down again because boomers can't help themselves from seeing friends and family or shopping for sport? **** that.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> Icu rate for that demographic (0-49) is .3%, or 3 for every thousand cases.
> 
> This includes those with preexisting conditions, those already in hospital, undergoing chemo,etc.
> 
> *Negligible for healthy people under 50.*
> 
> Why would you not take my statement seriously? Unbelievable? The stats are there for all to see on albertas website.


 .. not negligible when they get infected and land in the ICU unit as healthy as they were previously ... as low as your ICU stats may indicate. 

Btw, this conflicts with your earlier disbelief in modelling which is stats based projections.


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> ... ah, not all seniors 60+ are as tech-savvy as you are, 2. I don't think shareholders of RCSS/Metro etc., will be happy to see a discount on their dividends, nothing to say about Executives having to take a cut on their compensations. [Psst ... don't forget the pandemic "bonus" pay for front-line workers... has to be recouped somehow.], and 3. LMAO on free delivery ... how are these house-bounded seniors getting their medication currently? Or what are their kids (provided they have one) doing in the meantime?


I said especially for not tech-savvy seniors , do hot lines where seniors can call and order.
Government could've give compensation to big box stores . It would be fraction of expenses the province lost because of lockdown.


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> The case previously was that with uncontrolled spread, you could not protect the most vulnerable - those that require care from others.
> 
> Now, they've been vaccinated for a month or more, we need to lock down again because boomers can't help themselves from seeing friends and family or shopping for sport? **** that.


We don't need lockdown, we need reopen economy and back to normal life.
All LTC ppl ls already vaccinated.
Regarding seniors who live independently - see my post above.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> I said especially for not tech-savvy seniors , do hot lines where seniors can call and order.


 ... okay, use the phone line.... who will be monitoring those calls? what happens when the phone line jams, or there is a long-line up / waiting on those calls? Don't tell me that ain't gonna to happen. Grocers/and online retailers (such as Amazon & Walmart, etc.) had a hard-time keeping up with the ordering demands ... the delivery dates were out for weeks.... I'm afraid the seniors in your group will starve before their stuffs get delivered ... nothing to say about the "size" of their delivery to make it worthwhile for these companies to "deliver-for-free" ... LOL.



> *Government could've give compensation to big box stores *. It would be fraction of expenses the province lost because of lockdown.


 ... and "who" "in the government" is gonna to support that compensation? Ain't gonna to be coming out of Ford or Trudeau's pockets for sure ... here's a hint from your earlier statement:



> *But for our stupid government is easier just lock down all province .... and later to raise taxes.*..


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> .. not negligible when they get infected and land in the ICU unit as healthy as they were previously ... as low as your ICU stats may indicate.
> 
> Btw, this conflicts with your earlier disbelief in modelling which is stats based projections.


No. Modelling an outcome is different than modeling trend or rate of change. 

I can say with confidence that for every 2000 new covid cases for the age 0-49, approximately 6 will end up in the icu, and one will die. There isn't really any variables that will change. 

There are so many factors that go into how a virus spreads, it's impossible to predict. Behavior, weather, population density, existing immunity etc. These so called models basically exponentially run the case doubling rate into infinity. It doesn't work like that in real life. To even think that a model that says a possibility of 60,000 cases per day in 3 weeks should be taken seriously is for lack of a better word, dumb.

However, if you wanted to look back at trends from October and November, you will get a good idea how quickly this can get out of hand.


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> ... okay, use the phone line.... who will be monitoring those calls? what happens when the phone line jams, or there is a long-line up / waiting on those calls? Don't tell me that ain't gonna to happen.
> 
> ... and "who" "in the government" is gonna to support that compensation? Ain't gonna to be coming out of Ford or Trudeau's pockets for sure ... here's a hint from your earlier statement:


So, the government should make sure that line jams won't happen. Ontario is losing billions on lockdowns, saved money could've go for compensations.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> So, the government should make sure that line jams won't happen. Ontario is losing billions on lockdowns, saved money could've go for compensations.


 ... I have a simple question to ask you, just to save you the agony of the inconveniences of the lockdown ... not for seniors but for senior's juniors and that question is "Are you a small business owner?


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> No. Modelling an outcome is different than modeling trend or rate of change.
> 
> I can say with confidence that for every 2000 new covid cases for the age 0-49, approximately 6 will end up in the icu, and one will die. There isn't really any variables that will change.
> 
> There are so many factors that go into how a virus spreads, it's impossible to predict. Behavior, weather, population density, existing immunity etc. These so called models basically exponentially run the case doubling rate into infinity. It doesn't work like that in real life. To even think that a model that says a possibility of 60,000 cases per day in 3 weeks should be taken seriously is for lack of a better word, dumb.
> 
> However, if you wanted to look back at trends from October and November, you will get a good idea how quickly this can get out of hand.


Just check the numbers ! COVID-19 in Peel - Region of Peel The death rates are minimal. In Mississauga , population almost 1 M. in bracket 0-49 there is only 5 deaths from Covid for whole year!


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> Just check the numbers ! COVID-19 in Peel - Region of Peel The death rates are minimal. In Mississauga , population almost 1 M. in bracket 0-49 there is only 5 deaths from Covid for whole year!


I love these arguments. Maybe the death rates are low because of the restrictions.

I love the US is getting all this positive press about vaccines, full ball parks, July 4 parties. 500,000+ have died. That’s what will be remembered. Not the restrictions, not the vaccine rollout.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> I love these arguments. Maybe the death rates are low because of the restrictions.
> 
> I love the US is getting all this positive press about vaccines, full ball parks, July 4 parties. 500,000+ have died. That’s what will be remembered. Not the restrictions, not the vaccine rollout.


and maybe despite of the restrictions?!

Just check Halton! They had a very short stay-at-home order and mostly in red zone.... Despite of the fact that All Mississuaga going to their malls and restaurants, they never had more than 100 cases daily and death rate is extremely small


----------



## Bananatron

Money172375 said:


> I love these arguments. Maybe the death rates are low because of the restrictions.
> 
> I love the US is getting all this positive press about vaccines, full ball parks, July 4 parties. 500,000+ have died. That’s what will be remembered. Not the restrictions, not the vaccine rollout.


The death rates are low in that demographic because covid is not deadly for young, healthy people.


----------



## andrewf

Bananatron said:


> I'm sure you know this, but death rate for parents of school aged children (50 and under) is about 1 in every 2500 cases, including those with existing conditions. Albertas actual cfr is 38 deaths in about 74,500 cases for that demographic. That's about one death for every 1960 cases, or .05%. Not 5%, not half of a percent, one twentieth of one percent.
> 
> For healthy middle aged adults and younger, the death rate is negligible.
> 
> 50+ need to sit tight till they can get the shot.


I know 40 somethings that got COVID and did not have a good time with it. Sure, they didn't die, but that is no guarantee it didn't do lasting damage. Maybe knocked years off their lives. We simply do not know. There is a spectrum of outcomes between 'completely unharmed' and death. I don't think people in their 30s and 40s should be scratching their COVID lottery ticket if they can avoid it.


----------



## Bananatron

andrewf said:


> I know 40 somethings that got COVID and did not have a good time with it. Sure, they didn't die, but that is no guarantee it didn't do lasting damage. Maybe knocked years off their lives. We simply do not know. There is a spectrum of outcomes between 'completely unharmed' and death. I don't think people in their 30s and 40s should be scratching their COVID lottery ticket if they can avoid it.


I don't disagree. We don't know what it can do to you long term. 

I've used the analogy of food poisoning before. I know I probably won't die from it, I still will try to avoid it at all costs. 

As for the long term effects, very possible- but is that something that justifies shutting down the economy for?

I will always support restrictions to relieve overloaded hospitals, but that's as far as I will go. If the beds are good, open up. If they're filling up, restrict away.


----------



## Bananatron

Regarding vaccination ramp up:

Alberta was hovering arguing between 8000 and 10,000 shots per day for the last few weeks. Pro rating that to the population of Canada that equals about 70-90k per day for the nation.

Today we did 15,800, (would be 140k for the nation) and the pharmacies are opening up on this Monday.

I think we'll see 1m per week very shortly and over 2m per week at the peak.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> I love the US is getting all this positive press about vaccines, full ball parks, July 4 parties. 500,000+ have died. That’s what will be remembered. Not the restrictions, not the vaccine rollout.


When I lived in the US, I got the sense that "life is cheap" in America. I don't think their society is that impressed by large numbers of deaths, as we think.

Remember that it's also a culture that worships money, worships youth (celebrities) and generally lacks respect for elders. That's the perfect recipe for a culture that gives highest priority to business & entertainment, no matter how many older people it kills.

Meanwhile, Biden is doing all the right thing, actually an amazing job since taking office. He's already surpassed his vaccination goals, brought some amazing stimulus & fiscal support to the public. He's really nailing it overall... I am so happy for my American friends, after the horrific start to the pandemic under Trump.

Canada will benefit too, because ultimately we are tied at the hip to the US. As their health & economy improves, so will ours... so Biden is a huge help to Canada as well.


----------



## newfoundlander61

I got my first COVID vaccine shot yesterday at a local pharmacy, a step in the right direction. I feel about the same today as having got the flu shot,a bit yucky  The pharmacist said this is actually a good thing as your bodies immune system is doing what it is designed to do.


----------



## OptsyEagle

newfoundlander61 said:


> I got my first COVID vaccine shot yesterday at a local pharmacy, a step in the right direction. I feel about the same today as having got the flu shot,a bit yucky  The pharmacist said this is actually a good thing as your bodies immune system is doing what it is designed to do.


I assume it was AstraZeneca. Did they give you an appointment for the 2nd shot? If so, when did they schedule it?


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> I love these arguments. Maybe the death rates are low because of the restrictions.
> 
> I love the US is getting all this positive press about vaccines, full ball parks, July 4 parties. 500,000+ have died. That’s what will be remembered. Not the restrictions, not the vaccine rollout.


As per official peel region website in age brackets 0-59 there were 17,967 Covid cases and 16 deaths , thus Death rate is very small just 0.09%... It's practically same mortality rate as flu ...
Just end lockdown and let people live!


----------



## gibor365

Canada ranks worse than most developed countries in COVID-19 'misery index,' study says


A “misery index” suggests that overall well-being in Canada has suffered more than average in pandemic, ranking 11th out of 15 countries on a scale of…




nationalpost.com





Not a surprise


----------



## andrewf

In other news, Canada has overtaken the US to top Boston Consulting Group's ranking of most desirable countries in which to work. Gibor, where do Russia and Israel place on the list? I couldn't spot them.









Posthaste: Move over America, Canada is now the most desirable destination for international workers


Survey of 200,000 international workers shows Canada surpassing the United States for the first time




financialpost.com












Canada Unseats U.S. As Top Destination For People Moving For Work: Survey


The Great White North is especially popular among "the types of people that countries prize."




www.huffingtonpost.ca


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> In other news, Canada has overtaken the US to top Boston Consulting Group's ranking of most desirable countries in which to work. Gibor, where do Russia and Israel place on the list? I couldn't spot them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Posthaste: Move over America, Canada is now the most desirable destination for international workers
> 
> 
> Survey of 200,000 international workers shows Canada surpassing the United States for the first time
> 
> 
> 
> 
> financialpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada Unseats U.S. As Top Destination For People Moving For Work: Survey
> 
> 
> The Great White North is especially popular among "the types of people that countries prize."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.huffingtonpost.ca


In the order news
*Science and technology in Israel* is one of the country's most developed sectors. Israel spent 4.3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on civil research and development in 2015, the highest ratio in the world. In 2019*, Israel was ranked the world's fifth most innovative country* by the Bloomberg Innovation Index.

Cannot spot Canada


----------



## gibor365

actually in another article found Canada ... on 20th place LOL








Which is the most innovative country in the world? Well, it's not Canada - PlanetWeb.ca | Canada Startup & Tech News


<div class="at-above-post addthis_tool" data-url="https://planetweb.ca/news/which-is-the-most-innovative-country-in-the-world-well-its-not-canada/"></div>Israel and China are one of the few big movers in the new 2019 Bloomberg Annual Innovation Index. The 2019 ranking process began with more...




planetweb.ca


----------



## sags

There are 195 countries in the world........so 20th place isn't so bad.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> There are 195 countries in the world........so 20th place isn't so bad.


I'd say that 20th place isn't so good , esp for G7 country (actually Canada shouldn't be there)


----------



## like_to_retire

andrewf said:


> In other news, Canada has overtaken the US to top Boston Consulting Group's ranking of most desirable countries in which to work.


Hard to work if you're dead from COVID because of our terrible job of getting people a vaccine.

ltr


----------



## james4beach

like_to_retire said:


> Hard to work if you're dead from COVID because of our terrible job of getting people a vaccine.


That's silly. You're making it sound like workers are dying from COVID. But in fact, hardly any working age people are dying due to COVID. Let's say that working age people are mainly between the ages of 20 and 60.

In Canada, the total number of COVID deaths in this age range are 895 people. Out of 20.5 million people in that demographic, these deaths are *just 0.0044%*

How about in the US (though extending to 18-64)? Total COVID deaths are 96,819 out of a pop of 214.4 million people, these deaths are *0.045%*

COVID deaths among working age Canadians _are an order of magnitude_ lower than the US. America is doing 10x worse in deaths of working age people.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> That's silly. You're making it sound like workers are dying from COVID. But in fact, hardly any working age people are dying due to COVID. Let's say that working age people are mainly between the ages of 20 and 60.
> 
> In Canada, the total number of COVID deaths in this age range are 895 people. Out of 20.5 million people in that demographic, these deaths are *just 0.0044%*
> 
> How about in the US (though extending to 18-64)? Total COVID deaths are 96,819 out of a pop of 214.4 million people, these deaths are *0.045%*
> 
> COVID deaths among working age Canadians _are an order of magnitude_ lower than the US. America is doing 10x worse in deaths of working age people.


Just imagine how much better we'd be doing if they would have closed the borders to non-essential travel.
The variants are far more contagious, combined with COVID fatigue we might see a really nasty third wave.


----------



## gibor365

> In Canada, the total number of COVID deaths in this age range are 895 people. Out of 20.5 million people in that demographic, these deaths are *just 0.0044%*
> 
> How about in the US (though extending to 18-64)? Total COVID deaths are 96,819 out of a pop of 214.4 million people, these deaths are *0.045%*


Deaths in 60-64 brackets can easily be double of 18-60..
btw, one more reason to lift all restrictions


----------



## gibor365

COVID-19 lockdowns may impact cognitive ability, risk assessment: study


People around the world have been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and those negative impacts may have altered their cognitive abilities, risk avoidance and civic-mindedness for the worse, new research suggests.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> COVID-19 lockdowns may impact cognitive ability, risk assessment: study
> 
> 
> People around the world have been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and those negative impacts may have altered their cognitive abilities, risk avoidance and civic-mindedness for the worse, new research suggests.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


Where is the study regarding the positive effects of lockdowns?


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> COVID-19 lockdowns may impact cognitive ability, risk assessment: study
> 
> 
> People around the world have been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and those negative impacts may have altered their cognitive abilities, risk avoidance and civic-mindedness for the worse, new research suggests.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


 ... no doubt but thank lord, these affected far and few because these rare special folks' thinkings were already defective. No need to look further than these postings.


----------



## Money172375

I wonder how the people of Europe managed during WW2.
or those who went from WWI straight into Spanish Flu. Too bad they didn’t have #bell let’s talk.

we’re spoiled and weak compared to earlier generations.


----------



## Tostig

Now as in back then, the virus is not as bad as the people who deny and spread them. If we can control the spread, we can control the disease.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> we’re spoiled and weak compared to earlier generations.


No doubt! Just look at young generation ...


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> No doubt! Just look at young generation ...


That's what ... people under 55?


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Where is the study regarding the positive effects of lockdowns?


That's the problem, most research is one sided to prove a cause.

There really isn't much call for research that is truly objective, they're often seeking data to support a further initiative.

That being said, there are lots of researchers with integrity who really want to do real research, but "Lockdown impacts mixed" isn't much of a headline that anyone cares about.
The pro lockdown people don't want to hear about the negative impacts, and the anti lockdown people don't want to hear about positive impacts.

I spent a LOT more time with my kids when we were all working from home together.


----------



## gibor365

> and the anti lockdown people don't want to hear about positive impacts.


 because there are no any positives , at least for us and our kids and moms


----------



## gibor365

Just did google search about lockdown positives








8 Positive Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic | SurveySparrow


Here are the 8 positive impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to look forward to. In these difficult times, let's see the silver lining.




surveysparrow.com





What a BS LOL
esp 5. 
*Blue-chip Stocks Becoming the Safe Bet to Invest*
and 7
*Affordable Real Estate in Tier 1 Cities*


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> because there are no any positives , at least for us and our kids and moms


Lots of positives around but everyone is different and I truely accept there may be no positives for you.


----------



## Tostig

cainvest said:


> Lots of positives around but everyone is different and I truely accept there may be no positives for you.


One obvious positive. Just compare with any region that didn't practice any sort of lockdown, social distancing or wearing of masks with regions that do.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> we’re spoiled and weak compared to earlier generations.


Absolutely. We're in a wartime-like situation, and everyone still thinks they "deserve" to hang out at bars and nightclubs, drinking and laughing it up.

People's lives are going to fall apart if they can't travel to Las Vegas?


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> Absolutely. We're in a wartime-like situation, and everyone still thinks they "deserve" to hang out at bars and nightclubs, drinking and laughing it up.
> 
> People's lives are going to fall apart if they can't travel to Las Vegas?


And think about how technology is making it easier. My mom left her whole family in Europe and came to Canada in the 70s. she didn’t see her parents for the next 10 years. They never moved here. It was all letter writing and maybe 2-3 phone calls a year...they cost close to $100 for each call. Video calls make this a much different world. 

now we have people complaining about trivial things, and while I agree, there might be a small group of kids who are suffering.....for the most part, parents are projecting onto their children. kids are super adaptable and flexible.


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> Absolutely. We're in a wartime-like situation, and everyone still thinks they "deserve" to hang out at bars and nightclubs, drinking and laughing it up.
> 
> People's lives are going to fall apart if they can't travel to Las Vegas?


And I agree it’s wartime-“like” for us..........it in no way compares to those who lived through major war battles Whether it was World wars, somolia, bosnia Or any other humanitarian crisis, notwithstanding the deaths, illness and financial stress caused By covid, the vast, vast majority of people have only been inconvenienced.


----------



## Bananatron

Money172375 said:


> And I agree it’s wartime-“like” for us..........it in no way compares to those who lived through major war battles Whether it was World wars, somolia, bosnia Or any other humanitarian crisis, notwithstanding the deaths, illness and financial stress caused By covid, the vast, vast majority of people have only been inconvenienced.


There has been lots of talk about this in the past year, I guess you could call it the degrees of human suffering. I don't think people should feel guilty about being miserable during this pandemic just because it pales in comparison to other things humans have had to go through in history.

Its like if your dog died, are you not supposed to be sad because its nothing compared to your neighbor who just lost his father? Or is that neighbor supposed to feel guilty for grieving his elderly father when his coworker lost his child? Its ok to feel bad even though your life is relatively great. Sometimes its the rate of change that is worse than the actual conditions.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> And I agree it’s wartime-“like” for us..........it in no way compares to those who lived through major war battles Whether it was World wars, somolia, bosnia Or any other humanitarian crisis, notwithstanding the deaths, illness and financial stress caused By covid, the vast, vast majority of people have only been inconvenienced.


You are comparing absolutely incomparable things ... give also example of prisoners and concentrated camps 

We lived in USSR and know very well what live can be .... maybe this is why we against lockdowns....


----------



## gibor365

Tostig said:


> One obvious positive. Just compare with any region that didn't practice any sort of lockdown, social distancing or wearing of masks with regions that do.


False! Lockdown doesn't decrease deaths, but on opposite ...
From Ontario MPP

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369996705098252291

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370352854632955914


----------



## newfoundlander61

OptsyEagle said:


> I assume it was AstraZeneca. Did they give you an appointment for the 2nd shot? If so, when did they schedule it?


Yes AstraZeneca, they are currently not pre-booking 2nd shot due to the Pharmacy being a pilot, but once they get in use to it (the government website for tracking it etc) and vaccines start showing up on a regular basis they well notify me to come in.


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> You are comparing absolutely incomparable things ... give also example of prisoners and concentrated camps
> 
> We lived in USSR and know very well what live can be .... maybe this is why we against lockdowns....


The lockdowns here may be longer but they are less severe than occurred in Europe. My cousin was restricted to 5km of her home for months.


----------



## Money172375

Money172375 said:


> The lockdowns here may be longer but they are less severe than occurred in Europe. My cousin was restricted to 5km of her home for months. Almost everything is open here under the most severe grey zone rules.


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> because there are no any positives , at least for us and our kids and moms


Lets see, I've saved a pile of money not driving.
More time with my family, more time with my kids, working from home I do the same amount of hours with more personal time.
Lunch with my wife every day.

So yeah, lots of benefits, lots of drawbacks, but "no positives" is a great example of the close minded approach people have.
It's like saying supervised drug injection sites have "no negatives"


----------



## OptsyEagle

newfoundlander61 said:


> Yes AstraZeneca, they are currently not pre-booking 2nd shot due to the Pharmacy being a pilot, but once they get in use to it (the government website for tracking it etc) and vaccines start showing up on a regular basis they well notify me to come in.


Thanks for that. Just in case you did not know. Astrazeneca was the only company that took a little time to determine when their 2nd dose should be given, testing between 1 and 3 months, and found the best results were with a 
*3 month delay. *


----------



## Retired Peasant

james4beach said:


> Absolutely. We're in a wartime-like situation, and everyone still thinks they "deserve" to hang out at bars and nightclubs, drinking and laughing it up.
> 
> People's lives are going to fall apart if they can't travel to Las Vegas?


So true, but just wait...there will be endless headlines about how 'resilient' everyone has been.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I always believe that all people will be as resilient as they need to be. A person's level of spoiling is usually just a temporary issue. When you see, what might appear to be exceptions to this, you are actually just seeing a difference of opinion on the issue.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> I always believe that all people will be as resilient as they need to be. A person's level of spoiling is usually just a temporary issue. When you see, what might appear to be exceptions to this, you are actually just seeing a difference of opinion on the issue.


I would agree, but we have people screaming like their lives are over over non-problems, because they don't understand real issues.

I think the unfortunate result of our great success, is a bunch of people who freak out over minor problems. I do think many would be able to adjust, but a lot would just be crushed by the pressure.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Lets see, I've saved a pile of money not driving.
> More time with my family, more time with my kids, working from home I do the same amount of hours with more personal time.
> Lunch with my wife every day.
> 
> So yeah, lots of benefits, lots of drawbacks, but "no positives" is a great example of the close minded approach people have.
> It's like saying supervised drug injection sites have "no negatives"


Those positives are so minor and irrelevant! You can find such "positive' in any disaster.. and even more if your serve prison time LOL
Find positives for seniors living independently


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Those positives are so minor and irrelevant! You can find such "positive' in any disaster.. and even more if your serve prison time LOL
> Find positives for seniors living independently


Well since it's given me several thousand dollars in savings, I think they're significant.
Also your claim was "no positives", and that's my point.

For seniors living alone, significantly lower chance of death, that's a big one. 

The real question is if there was a positive cost/benefit to lockdowns, and that's much more complex.

However falsely claiming no positives just shows how biased you are from the start.


----------



## gibor365

> However falsely claiming no positives just shows how biased you are from the start.


and falsely claiming many positives _ just shows how biased you are from the start._


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Well since it's given me several thousand dollars in savings, I think they're significant.
> Also your claim was "no positives", and that's my point.
> 
> For seniors living alone, significantly lower chance of death, that's a big one.
> 
> The real question is if there was a positive cost/benefit to lockdowns, and that's much more complex.
> 
> However falsely claiming no positives just shows how biased you are from the start.


 ... how can there be no positive in all negatives? According to gibor's POV (and multiplication laws), all negatives become positives because all the negatives that come the from seniors living independently are going to the seniors living at the LTCs 'cause the latter group are gonna to die anyways which end up as a positive to him.


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> and falsely claiming many positives _ just shows how biased you are from the start._


There are many positives and many negatives.
How is that biased? 


You said there were no positives, I made a list of positives. Not because I think there are only positives, I just wanted to prove my claim that there are some positives.

FYI I even listed the negatives at the beginning of quarantine, particularly the skyrocketting domestic abuse and suicide rates seen in some countries.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... how can there be no positive in all negatives? According to gibor's POV (and multiplication laws), all negatives become positives because all the negatives that come the from seniors living independently are going to the seniors living at the LTCs 'cause the latter group are gonna to die anyways which end up as a positive to him.


The same way it's all positives and no negatives for other causes.

If you can't create a list of positives and negatives, you're biased to an incredible degree. 
I can't imagine a situation that is all positive or all negative. There are ALWAYS trade offs. 
I will concede that in an artificially constructed hypothesis you might be able to skew very sharply to one side, but I still hold that there will almost always be at least a single counterpoint.


----------



## Beaver101

For one, we're getting a good picture of the severity of the bias of some folks.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> The same way it's all positives and no negatives for other causes.
> 
> If you can't create a list of positives and negatives, you're biased to an incredible degree.
> I can't imagine a situation that is all positive or all negative. There are ALWAYS trade offs.
> I will concede that in an artificially constructed hypothesis you might be able to skew very sharply to one side, but I still hold that there will almost always be at least a single counterpoint.


Again, you also can find positives while spending time in prison... everything is relative


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> Again, you also can find positives while spending time in prison... everything is relative


Interesting you say the above since you state you have "no positives being in covid lockdown prison".


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> Interesting you say the above since you state you have "no positives being in covid lockdown prison".


Simply because those are not real positives


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Simply because those are not real positives


I have saved several thousand dollars, that's a real positive.



gibor365 said:


> Again, you also can find positives while spending time in prison... everything is relative


Sure, of course you can, that's my point.
When someone says there are NO positives, or NO negatives, you can't trust them. They're too biased.


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> Again, you also can find positives while spending time in prison... everything is relative


A place to sleep, 3 square meals a day, time to go to the gym, what's not to love?


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> A place to sleep, 3 square meals a day, time to go to the gym, what's not to love?


That what I mean ...everything is relative 

You also can find a lot of positives when LTC residents are dying in masses! Taxpayers don't have to pay billions that spent on OAS, CPP, GIS and LTC care... but it doesn't mean that we have just let them die.... and it doesn't mean that despite "very weird positives" we need to stay in lockdown!


----------



## gibor365

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371420598958755841
and some "saved several thousand dollars, that's a real positive. "


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> and some "saved several thousand dollars, that's a real positive. "


For them it is positive, obviously covid is a negative for others.

And of course making the above surgical delays far worse is those anti-lockdown people.


----------



## Beaver101

cainvest said:


> For them it is positive, obviously covid is a negative for others.
> 
> And of course making the above surgical delays far worse is those anti-lockdown people.


 ... some rare people just don't know the *real *meaning of this pandemic "*we.are.ALL.in.it.together*".

All they see is the "poor-me,myself, and I" are being punished with the inconvenience of the restrictions, using fake concerns for the backlogged life-saving surgeries and medical treatments as excuses for the horrible, horrible lockdowns.


----------



## Plugging Along

gibor365 said:


> and falsely claiming many positives _ just shows how biased you are from the start._


Briefly reading your post history, you really do choose a negative view (most of your posts are criticizing or complaining), this really a CHOICE of yours to be negative and unhappy. There are many studies that show the impact of positive thinking and the impact on happiness and how we handle events.

These events are really outside of our control. We have no control about COVID, the vaccinations or how the government is handling things. They are negative and $hitty. However, I choose not to focus on that, nor do I let my family focus on that because that is bad for mental health and our general well being. 

If just focus on how dismal COVID is, then of course it's all negative, but looking for the positives are especially important in these times. It's not 'falsely claiming' positives, it's about CHOOSING to not let it beat us down in which WE have CONTROL over.

I have my kids and I take the time to come up with positive things during each night, especially on the worst days ever. This has been what has kept us going. Well prior to COVID my child was hospitalized with depression, anxiety and panic attacks to get help and keep her safe. Then she had a sports head injury which cause a major concussion (and that increases depression) and had a permanent eye injury. She wasn't recovering very well due to continual bullying and stressors from school. Then COVID hit and school was cancelled then on line. The first 3 months provided a reset that she needed from school, which allowed her to recover. She may not have been able to recover fully if there wasn't a shut down. That's pretty positive. She was given the time to slow down (she is a high achieving perfectionist kid) to learn to manage her anxiety and depression. That's a pretty big plus for us. 

At the same time, I have not seen my mom in LTC home for just over a year now. That is crappy and negative. The fact that there have been very few cases in her area, and that she is still alive is amazing. She was given terminal diagnosis 2 years ago with less than 2 weeks to live. Yes it is awful we don't get to see her, but she is doing well, and told my dad that she isn't ready to die with this pandemic, she is still fighting the other terminal diagnosis. So the fact they are taking such good care of my mom - that's positive. 

My dad is alone at home. He misses his buddies because of social distances. My sibling and I are his two care givers, it's challenging especially because my kids are in school. However, because of COVID, my dad at 86 finally agree to have internet installed (he's never used a computer in his life), and we managed to hook him up on an ipad. He has been doing facetime with my other sibling out of town and his family weekly now, and has started to contact old friends to video conference. He has been healthy, though a little bored. He is HAPPY everyone including him and my mom are safe. That's pretty positive. 

My spouse work for a start up in the Travel tech industry. It was supposed to launch last year. It didn't because of COVID. However, he had minimal disruption finding another job. I have been able to work from home. I was supposed to take a leave because of my child's mental health last year. It was supposed to start the same day as our lock downs occurred. I was able to cancel my leave because we were all working from home. Financially, we have been about the same. Family wise, so much better. That's positive.

I can choose to list all the negative things that happen or weren't handled well, but it's not going to change anything. So I choose to try to find the positive in situations. Perhaps this is why my mental health despite being pushed to limits (even before COVID) has remained intact. 

If you are so unhappy with how things are here, perhaps you should choose to find away to put yourself in a situation where you are less likely to complain. Perhaps Israel or Russia would provide you a less negative life. You mentioned came for family, then if that is your positive, then reframing may help you.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario declared to be in 3rd wave. Agh! 









Ontario entering third COVID-19 wave, hospital association warns


Chief Medical Officer David Williams says it is too early to tell the size of any coming surge




www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## gibor365

> These events are really outside of our control. We have no control about COVID, the vaccinations or *how the government is handling things*


 We cannot control *how the government is handling things, but we can raise our voices if we don't agree with how the government does it.

I have many positives in my life, but none from lockdowns , Liberals government, terror attacks, wars etc...*


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> Ontario declared to be in 3rd wave. Agh!


Last week our Major requested that we move to red zone from grey that was denied by ON government. Looks like next week instead of red zone, ON government gonna push us back to stay-at-home order. And with "fabulous" Canadian vaccination rate , there will be 4th and 5th wave
A bunch of positivity for some LOL...

P.S. The positive for me , in any case I don't give a **** about those "orders"


----------



## Money172375

30 year old student dies after his classmates have a party. Apparently he didn’t attend.









Man in his 30s dies after large COVID-19 outbreak at student residence in Peterborough, Ont.


A man in his 30s has died from COVID-19 after a large outbreak was declared at a privately operated student residence in Peterborough, Ont. last month, marking the area's youngest disease-related death.



toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Bananatron

124k vaccinated today. That's about 870,000 per week. 

Getting there!


----------



## Tostig

gibor365 said:


> False! Lockdown doesn't decrease deaths, ...


Of course they do. What causes deaths are the people defying lockdown orders. Those who travel on vacation catching viruses from other travellors from other countries. Those who fight and spit on employees over masks. Those who break their bubbles and bring the virus home.

Remember when the Maritime Bubble was working very well? That was until someone left, entered the US and returned.


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> 124k vaccinated today. That's about 870,000 per week.
> 
> Getting there!


Where did you find this number?
As per Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research Canada administered 0.26 per 100 ppl, so it's 97,734 and it's still #48 in the World


----------



## gibor365

> Of course they do. What causes deaths are the people defying lockdown orders.


On the opposite....
_Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burde_n. 








Great Barrington Declaration and Petition


As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection




gbdeclaration.org





Above I posted numbers of cancelled surgeries and cancer screenings in ON


----------



## gibor365

I still don't get if 1st and 2nd vaccines can be from different manufacturers? For example, if you get 1st AZ, can you get 2nd Pfizer ?


----------



## Bananatron

gibor365 said:


> Where did you find this number?
> As per Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research Canada administered 0.26 per 100 ppl, so it's 97,734 and it's still #48 in the World


I have no idea whose source is more accurate, but this is what I've been using. 





__





COVID-19 Tracker Canada - Vaccination Tracker


Real-time COVID-19 vaccination updates for every region in Canada, tracking doses of Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine delivered and administered to Canadians.



covid19tracker.ca


----------



## james4beach

Had a weird and scary experience at the grocery store today. There seems to be a public misconception about "eased restrictions" here in BC ... in a packed store, I saw a group of 5 men hanging out and talking (right by a busy deli counter). After about 5 mins I came back and saw they were still talking.

For those who aren't aware, talking significantly increases the risk of COVID spread and an indoor gathering with loud talking, in a packed store, is very dangerous.

I asked them if they could please take their conversation outside. A store manager came to me and said, gatherings like that are allowed now. (she's wrong and they are NOT). When I left the store 20 minutes later, the same group of men were still talking indoors, just in a different spot.

So beware. Here's what's happening. BC eased a single restriction; they said that "*outdoor* gatherings are OK now".

The public has taken that as a green light to relax everything. People have gone absolutely crazy in response. In my apartment building, many people have stopped wearing masks. People are socializing indoors at the store.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Had a weird and scary experience at the grocery store today. There seems to be a public misconception about "eased restrictions" here in BC ... in a packed store, I saw a group of 5 men hanging out and talking (right by a busy deli counter). After about 5 mins I came back and saw they were still talking.
> 
> For those who aren't aware, talking significantly increases the risk of COVID spread and an indoor gathering with loud talking, in a packed store, is very dangerous.
> 
> I asked them if they could please take their conversation outside. A store manager came to me and said, gatherings like that are allowed now. (she's wrong and they are NOT). When I left the store 20 minutes later, the same group of men were still talking indoors, just in a different spot.
> 
> So beware. Here's what's happening. BC eased a single restriction; they said that "*outdoor* gatherings are OK now".
> 
> The public has taken that as a green light to relax everything. People have gone absolutely crazy in response. In my apartment building, many people have stopped wearing masks. People are socializing indoors at the store.


People got tired from those crazy restrictions... A store manager did a good job!
james, if you are so scared , don't go to the stores, buy everything online


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> People got tired from those crazy restrictions... A store manager did a good job!
> james, if you are so scared , don't go to the stores, buy everything online


No, people should be following public health guidelines.

You were a police officer. Have you forgotten the point of enforcing rules and regulations? Or would you tell people: hey if you're scared of crime, stay home. There is nothing we can do.


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> I still don't get if 1st and 2nd vaccines can be from different manufacturers? For example, if you get 1st AZ, can you get 2nd Pfizer ?


 no


----------



## Bananatron

Money172375 said:


> no


Let's say a person took the a.z. shot first but wanted the better protection of Moderna or pfizer, they could simply take 2 shots of the other vaccine? There is no interference between the two, or that has yet to be determined?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> No, people should be following public health guidelines.
> 
> You were a police officer. Have you forgotten the point of enforcing rules and regulations? Or would you tell people: hey if you're scared of crime, stay home. There is nothing we can do.


They should, but people like Trudeau ignored the rules and regulations right from the beginning, and STILL hasn't enforced the "closed borders".
When the PM himself says you don't need to follow the rules and regulations, why would anyone bother?


----------



## Money172375

Bananatron said:


> Let's say a person took the a.z. shot first but wanted the better protection of Moderna or pfizer, they could simply take 2 shots of the other vaccine? There is no interference between the two, or that has yet to be determined?


I don’t think it’s been studied and we’re all too focused on efficacy rates and “better protection”. They are all highly effective and their combined use should drive the numbers down to insignificance. I suspect in a years time, we may need additional shots and by then, we should have a better idea on which vaccine is “best”. This could go on for years. Children may need to wait until a certain age to get the shot, similar to HPV or chicken pox.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> I don’t think it’s been studied and we’re all too focused on efficacy rates and “better protection”. They are all highly effective and their combined use should drive the numbers down to insignificance. I suspect in a years time, we may need additional shots and by then, we should have a better idea on which vaccine is “best”. This could go on for years. Children may need to wait until a certain age to get the shot, similar to HPV or chicken pox.


Moderna is testing under 12, or planning to.
I believe it's expected to have kids vaccines in the fall.


----------



## Plugging Along

Bananatron said:


> Let's say a person took the a.z. shot first but wanted the better protection of Moderna or pfizer, they could simply take 2 shots of the other vaccine? There is no interference between the two, or that has yet to be determined?


I posted somewhere (maybe in the vaccine thread). We had a work townhall with an expert, and they are saying AT THIS TIME, shots should be of the same vaccine. There are still studies going on, but currently there is not enough information to allow for different vaccines for the first and second shot. In the future, pending everyone getting both of their vaccines, supply and logistics, there MAY be an opportunity to get a different but not right now, or anytime soon. The research is constantly evolving.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Keep in mind, that each time you are infected and/or each time you are vaccinated, you are "shocking" your immune system. I have no idea if it matters whether you shock your system once, twice or a 1000 times in your life, but I just think that you might want to *only do that when you have to.*

For example, there are some theories going around that "long covid" may be the result of the immune system being shocked by being infected with a dangerous dose of covid so much that after the immune system neutralized it all (you get feeling a little better again) your body's immune system is not shutting off or going dormant like it is supposed to. It is staying on "full alert" causing all the fatigue, headaches and other long covid symptoms these people are still experiencing.

There are other theories for long covid, but I use it as an example that these vaccines should not be taken like candy. They do whack your body. I just don't think you should plan to do that too often.


----------



## sags

They should track the number of fully vaccinated folks, instead of vaccinations.

Some vaccinations require 1 dose and some 2 doses to be as effective as they can be.

The reality is that we haven't even fully vaccinated retirement and LTC homes staff yet.

We will locked down for a long time at this rate, or suffer a bunch of future "waves".


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> Let's say a person took the a.z. shot first but wanted the better protection of Moderna or pfizer, they could simply take 2 shots of the other vaccine? There is no interference between the two, or that has yet to be determined?


The problem is that some people already got 1st AZ shot , so what gonna be if Canada suspend AZ?!


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> No, people should be following public health guidelines.
> 
> You were a police officer. Have you forgotten the point of enforcing rules and regulations? Or would you tell people: hey if you're scared of crime, stay home. There is nothing we can do.


Enforcing law and criminal code is a bit different from "following public health guidelines.".  And there are different interpretation of "following public health guidelines."  , for example "essential" everyone understand differently ...


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Keep in mind, that each time you are infected and/or each time you are vaccinated, you are "shocking" your immune system. I have no idea if it matters whether you shock your system once, twice or a 1000 times in your life, but I just think that you might want to *only do that when you have to.*


I think you are simply "stressing" your system, like exercising it.
Sure there are immediate risks, long distance runners DO have an elevated risk of heart attacks during and for a short period after a marathon. 
However that's counteracted by the overall dramatically lower risk of a heart attack at other times due to their improved health.

There is some research that suggests your immune system functions better if you are exposed to pathogens.

The human body is an adaptive system, as long as you don't overload to the point of damage, stressing it isn't IMO going to cause long term problems.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> I think you are simply "stressing" your system, like exercising it.
> Sure there are immediate risks, long distance runners DO have an elevated risk of heart attacks during and for a short period after a marathon.
> However that's counteracted by the overall dramatically lower risk of a heart attack at other times due to their improved health.
> 
> There is some research that suggests your immune system functions better if you are exposed to pathogens.
> 
> The human body is an adaptive system, as long as you don't overload to the point of damage, stressing it isn't IMO going to cause long term problems.


No argument. It is more of a feeling then a theory. Many people get the flu shot every year and I would imagine if they were becoming more susceptible to colds and other viruses, we would probably have noticed that. That said, I think I will reduce the amount of vaccinations I take to the absolute minimum I need...especially vaccines that have less then a years experience.

Others can poke themselves as often as they want and hopefully if it turns out bad they will let me know.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> They should track the number of fully vaccinated folks, instead of vaccinations.
> 
> Some vaccinations require 1 dose and some 2 doses to be as effective as they can be.
> 
> The reality is that we haven't even fully vaccinated retirement and LTC homes staff yet.
> 
> We will locked down for a long time at this rate, or suffer a bunch of future "waves".


They do track fully vaccinated people. It’s really low given that they are spreading doses out 4 months.


----------



## sags

Oh great...maybe I didn't want to know.

We have fully vaccinated a whopping 1.5% of the population.

Gibor is right. Those vaccination numbers are terrible.





__





COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Canada - Canada.ca


COVID-19 vaccination coverage across Canada by demographics and key populations. Updated every Friday at 12:00 PM Eastern Time.




health-infobase.canada.ca


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> Oh great...maybe I didn't want to know.
> 
> We have fully vaccinated a whopping 1.5% of the population.
> 
> Gibor is right. Those vaccination numbers are terrible.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Canada - Canada.ca
> 
> 
> COVID-19 vaccination coverage across Canada by demographics and key populations. Updated every Friday at 12:00 PM Eastern Time.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> health-infobase.canada.ca


*This report was last updated on March 12, 2021 with data up to and including March 6, 2021.*




__





COVID-19 Tracker Canada - Vaccination Tracker


Real-time COVID-19 vaccination updates for every region in Canada, tracking doses of Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine delivered and administered to Canadians.



covid19tracker.ca






> As of today, more than *2,762,349* Canadians have received at least one dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine. *609,809* Canadians are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, having received both required doses.


610,000/37,800,000 = 1.6%
2,760,000/37,800 = 7.3%

The fully vaccinated number hasn't moved up because every province has spread out the doses to 3-4 months between first and second.

Within a week we should be at .5% per day. (190k/day)
Within a month we will be at 1% a day.


----------



## Money172375

The big deliveries are next week and will be the first real test of provincial capabilities. I continue to reserve judgement for 2 more weeks.


----------



## Money172375

My dad has surgery scheduled for The first week of April. With our luck, they will open up his age range that week which will cause some stress. id hate to choose between delaying his shot and moving the surgery. Any chance the hospital would administer it? He’s expected to be there a few days. It’s for a knee replacement, he had complications on the other knee Surgery. I also worry about all the rehab that occurs quite frequently in congregate settings.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> *Enforcing law and criminal code is a bit different from "following public health guidelines*.".  And there are different interpretation of "following public health guidelines."  , for example "essential" everyone understand differently ...


 .. and yet the very same special people are screaming that there're far too many restrictions being placed by public health such as still need to wear a mask to go to favourite store (in TO), still can't go to the local watering joint to meet up with the boys/(girls), still go see a movie in a theatre, still can't fly out of the country without having to pay for quarantine hotel on return, still can't do this and still can't do that ... I guess there is still time to grow up for these folks.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> My dad has surgery scheduled for The first week of April. With our luck, they will open up his age range that week which will cause some stress. id hate to choose between delaying his shot and moving the surgery. Any chance the hospital would administer it? He’s expected to be there a few days. It’s for a knee replacement, he had complications on the other knee Surgery. I also worry about all the rehab that occurs quite frequently in congregate settings.


 ... best to ask his doc and his surgeon(s). They should have a good idea of what's applicable to his situation given they already have given him a schedule for the surgery. Ie. they would be prepared by now.


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> ... best to ask his doc and his surgeon(s). They should have a good idea of what's applicable to his situation given they already have given him a schedule for the surgery. Ie. they would be prepared by now.


Just talked to my mom. I asked about the gruelling physio afterwards. Apparently it’s all done online. Zoom? Pre-recorded video?


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> Just talked to my mom. I asked about the gruelling physio afterwards. Apparently it’s all done online. Zoom? Pre-recorded video?


 ... what? how is that possible? Self-physio and where? I think you should check the hospital/rehabilitation center's website to get more info.


----------



## Beaver101

‘Suppressive’ approach to controlling spread of COVID-19 variants making a difference, Montreal health official says



> A “suppressive” approach to controlling the spread of more transmissible coronavirus variants in Montreal has prevented a spike in COVID-19 cases involving those variants, the city’s public health director said Wednesday.
> 
> Dr. Mylene Drouin said the more aggressive strategy explains the difference between Montreal, where the number of new COVID-19 cases has remained stable, and Ontario, where a government scientific advisory panel has said variants account for nearly half of all new cases and are driving a third wave of the pandemic.
> 
> ....


 ... Montreal's public health officer's response makes me laugh ... nowhere in the newspiece identified as to what "suppressive" approach was used to keep the numbers down ... other than massive testing.... if that is suppressive, then I can't imagine what an aggressive approach would be ... would you like cream or milk with that caffee?

Why don't she just be upfront and said our approach with the imposed "curfew" was the right call. Sheesh.


----------



## Money172375

How do you read this?

*COVID-19 Update*
In order to keep our patients and staff safe and adhere to safe distancing guidelines, at this time:

We are providing Outpatient Physiotherapy Services only at Credit Valley Hospital (please see below for Location, Hours and Contact Information)
We are only able to accept patients who have had surgery at Trillium Health Partners for total joint replacements (hip/knee). We regret that we are unable to accept GTA Rehab Network referrals.
Care will be provided virtually, with limited exceptions.
so is it virtual? Or not? The second bullet sounds like in-person?


----------



## Beaver101

^ Yes, the 2nd bullet sounds like in-person and "common-sense" speaking, I can't see how one can do physiotherapy on his/her own, after surgery especially. That's insane. I think the after-surgical care "treatment" should be similar to those in an LTC setting (i.e. assisted-care with an RN/A) ... only it's a "hospital" the protocols should be extremely stringent if not top-notch.

The 3rd bullet really throws one off ... "care will be provided virtually" ... what care are they referring? Maybe a call to over there can clarify that?


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> ... what? how is that possible? Self-physio and where? I think you should check the hospital/rehabilitation center's website to get more info.


Everything is possible here , Our friends daughter is learning in university to be a nurse .online (already 2nd year)... Should doctors gonna guide us online how to perform surgeries LOL


----------



## OptsyEagle

Money172375 said:


> How do you read this?
> 
> *COVID-19 Update*
> In order to keep our patients and staff safe and adhere to safe distancing guidelines, at this time:
> 
> We are providing Outpatient Physiotherapy Services only at Credit Valley Hospital (please see below for Location, Hours and Contact Information)
> We are only able to accept patients who have had surgery at Trillium Health Partners for total joint replacements (hip/knee). We regret that we are unable to accept GTA Rehab Network referrals.
> Care will be provided virtually, with limited exceptions.
> so is it virtual? Or not? The second bullet sounds like in-person?


No. They are saying that they are only able to handle Trillium patients with their virtual service. No GTA patients for their virtual service.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Everything is possible here , Our friends daughter is learning in university to be a nurse .online (already 2nd year)...


... I'm sure your friend's daughter will get real life experience (aka hands-on) when she graduates ... perhaps by the seat of her pants or on the fly when she's working in a hospital or a nursing home. 

OTOH, she can take this route or go into this category of "nurses" if she doesn't take her work seriously: Defiant unmasked nurse refuses COVID testing, quarantine at Toronto airport .... this one seems like she's tired of being a "nurse" (as in following established health protocols or what she was trained to do such as taking care of patients) so I think jail is the most appropriate place for her at this point in the time until she figures out what she wants to be next ... social media sensationalist?



> * Should doctors gonna guide us online how to perform surgeries LOL *


... you do realize that there're "guided" "robotic" surgeries (eg.lapraroscopy) being performed these days and yes in Ontario, if you're in-tune.


----------



## Spudd

Beaver101 said:


> ‘Suppressive’ approach to controlling spread of COVID-19 variants making a difference, Montreal health official says
> 
> ... Montreal's public health officer's response makes me laugh ... nowhere in the newspiece identified as to what "suppressive" approach was used to keep the numbers down


Actually, it did:

That approach involves more extensive contact tracing for variant cases, she said. In addition, contacts that would normally be classified as “low risk” are deemed “moderate risk” when a variant is involved. That means they are asked to get tested and to self-isolate for 14 days.

“When we have a variant in a specific setting, a school, daycare or workplace, we identify more contacts, we do massive screening, and during this massive screening of contacts, we ask the people that live with those contacts to isolate themselves while we’re waiting for the results of the tests,” Drouin said.


----------



## Beaver101

Spudd said:


> Actually, it did:
> 
> That approach involves more extensive contact tracing for variant cases, she said. In addition, contacts that would normally be classified as “low risk” are deemed “moderate risk” when a variant is involved. That means they are asked to get tested and to self-isolate for 14 days.
> 
> “When we have a variant in a specific setting, a school, daycare or workplace, we identify more contacts, we do massive screening, and during this massive screening of contacts, we ask the people that live with those contacts to isolate themselves while we’re waiting for the results of the tests,” Drouin said.


 ... let me clarify my earlier post here. That definition as a "suppressive" approach by Montreal's PH remains laughable. Nowhere is the word "curfew" mentioned/used which would be considered as suppressive and actually works. Which means some special (rare) Ontarians/Torontonians/Missisaugians on this forum should consider themselves lucky.


----------



## james4beach

Actual incident that just happened 15 minutes ago.

I walked down the stairwell of my apartment building. It's a tight, enclosed space with no ventilation. I rounded the corner and saw two girls in exercise gear, without masks, running up & down (doing exercises).

This is the second time I've seen them now. So this time I yelled at the girls (maybe in their 20s) and said: put your masks on, and I don't think you should be exercising in here.

They yelled back: "You're not the boss of me!" <--- actual quote


... so I guess this is how some of these apartment building outbreaks happen. Common areas, careless people who don't follow guidelines. The property manager has strict rules about masks, but these girls think it's inconvenient for their exercising. Must huff & puff all through the common area.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Actual incident that just happened 15 minutes ago.
> 
> I walked down the stairwell of my apartment building. It's a tight, enclosed space with no ventilation. I rounded the corner and saw two girls in exercise gear, without masks, running up & down (doing exercises).
> 
> This is the second time I've seen them now. So this time I yelled at the girls (maybe in their 20s) and said: put your masks on, and I don't think you should be exercising in here.
> 
> They yelled back: "You're not the boss of me!"


james, you are taking a lot of risks arguing with girls on the stairs and boys in the store


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> james, you are taking a lot of risks arguing with girls on the stairs and boys in the store


They are taking a lot of risk arguing with me. And more importantly they are endangering all of their neighbours... someone has to stop them.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> They are taking a lot of risk arguing with me. And more importantly they are endangering all of their neighbours... someone has to stop them.


Apparently , they don;t care about Covid , but you do


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> Apparently , they don;t care about Covid , but you do


This is an accurate statement yes


----------



## gibor365

Former Conservative MPP suing Ford government over 'right to protest, pray & gather outdoors'


Baber was originally elected as a Progressive Conservative MPP to represent the riding of York Centre in Toronto, but was expelled from the party by Premier Doug Ford after he declared his opposition to lockdowns




thepostmillennial.com


----------



## Retired Peasant

james4beach said:


> The property manager has strict rules about masks,


So what did the property manager do when you reported it?


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Former Conservative MPP suing Ford government over 'right to protest, pray & gather outdoors'
> 
> 
> Baber was originally elected as a Progressive Conservative MPP to represent the riding of York Centre in Toronto, but was expelled from the party by Premier Doug Ford after he declared his opposition to lockdowns
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thepostmillennial.com


 ... ya, ya, ya ... whatever from Blabber.


----------



## Beaver101

Retired Peasant said:


> So what did the property manager do when you reported it?


 ... likely nothing or at best, property manager will "talk" to them ignorants.

If I was J4B, I would have carried a bottle of disinfectant and started spraying all around me whilst passing through them. If they get "offended" by this, I would yell back "You're not the boss of me!" And I don't want your "dirty cooties!" 

Yuck with all that effing hot air emitted from that huffings and puffings ... disgusting... seems they're too poor to afford a treadmill at home or have a brain to use the park freely for their exercises.


----------



## james4beach

Retired Peasant said:


> So what did the property manager do when you reported it?


To their credit, they did immediately go into the stairs. The manager found the women and reminded them to wear masks. The manager then phoned me back and said that the women claimed they were wearing masks the whole time (not true)



Beaver101 said:


> If I was J4B, I would have carried a bottle of disinfectant and started spraying all around me whilst passing through them.


You read my mind. Next time I open the stairwell door and hear people exercising down below, I plan to start misting bleach down the stairs.

There actually is a GYM in the building. There is a designated place, with signup/schedule to use the exercise facility. They are only using the (indoors) stairs because it's more convenient to use at their leisure. They could be, and should be, using the gym.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> To their credit, they did immediately go into the stairs. The manager found the women and reminded them to wear masks. The manager then phoned me back and said that the women claimed they were wearing masks the whole time (not true)


You have a smart phone with video right? 



james4beach said:


> You read my mind. Next time I open the stairwell door and hear people exercising down below, I plan to start misting bleach down the stairs.


I wouldn't do that ... might lead to legal issues.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Actual incident that just happened 15 minutes ago.
> 
> I walked down the stairwell of my apartment building. It's a tight, enclosed space with no ventilation. I rounded the corner and saw two girls in exercise gear, without masks, running up & down (doing exercises).
> 
> This is the second time I've seen them now. So this time I yelled at the girls (maybe in their 20s) and said: put your masks on, and I don't think you should be exercising in here.
> 
> They yelled back: "You're not the boss of me!" <--- actual quote
> 
> 
> ... so I guess this is how some of these apartment building outbreaks happen. Common areas, careless people who don't follow guidelines. The property manager has strict rules about masks, but these girls think it's inconvenient for their exercising. Must huff & puff all through the common area.


That's why I don't support high density housing.


----------



## sags

Miami Beach closes down. Ontario experiences outbreaks and rising cases.

When will they learn there is no such thing as herd immunity and opening up is a bad idea ?

Remember UK PM Boris Johnson......the herd immunity guy ?

He got really sick from COVID, recovered and is getting the AZ vaccination.

I guess he doesn't believe in "immunity" anymore. He went from one extreme to the other.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Miami Beach closes down. Ontario experiences outbreaks and rising cases.
> 
> When will they learn there is no such thing as herd immunity and opening up is a bad idea ?
> 
> Remember UK PM Boris Johnson......the herd immunity guy ?
> 
> He got really sick from COVID, recovered and is getting the AZ vaccination.
> 
> I guess he doesn't believe in "immunity" anymore. He went from one extreme to the other.


There is such a thing as herd immunity.
It just isn't applicable to the current COVID19 situation, particularly in Ontario, where we most people haven't had COVID19.

Also of course Boris believes in immunity, that's why he's taking the vaccine.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Miami Beach closes down. Ontario experiences outbreaks and rising cases.
> 
> When will they learn there is no such thing as herd immunity and opening up is a bad idea ?
> 
> Remember UK PM Boris Johnson......the herd immunity guy ?
> 
> He got really sick from COVID, recovered and is getting the AZ vaccination.
> 
> I guess he doesn't believe in "immunity" anymore. He went from one extreme to the other.


Seriously. 

Boris Johnson got the AstraZeneca shot because too many unknowledgeable people were sprouting unsubstantiated and completely insignificant information on the benefits and safety of this drug and consequently putting the ENTIRE PANDEMIC FIGHT at risk and jeopardy for a timely solution.

Those people should be ashamed and embarrassed of themselves.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Seriously.
> 
> Boris Johnson got the AstraZeneca shot because too many unknowledgeable people were sprouting unsubstantiated and completely insignificant information on the benefits and safety of this drug and consequently putting the ENTIRE PANDEMIC FIGHT at risk and jeopardy for a timely solution.
> 
> Those people should be ashamed and embarrassed of themselves.


Yup, people posting the anti AZ FUD are the reason we have 12% refusal, that's one in 8.









Some Montrealers refusing AstraZeneca vaccine; Canadian authorities assert it’s safe


Some residents in Montreal have refused the newly approved AstraZeneca vaccine when they show up to their appointment as fears grow about potential side effects.



montreal.ctvnews.ca





I don't know what's wrong with these anti-vaxxers. 
Actually I do, they can't read, and they don't care about people.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Yup, people posting the anti AZ FUD are the reason we have 12% refusal, that's one in 8.


You're making it sound like the concerns are only due to anti-vaccine material.

But remember, several European countries halted vaccinations to investigate the strange side effects. There *has* been a legitimate concern which required investigation (as of last week).

As time goes on, it's looking like there is nothing to be worried about with AZ. And the clinical results out of the US today are very positive.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> You're making it sound like the concerns are only due to anti-vaccine material.
> 
> But remember, several European countries halted vaccinations to investigate the strange side effects. There *has* been a legitimate concern which required investigation (as of last week).
> 
> As time goes on, it's looking like there is nothing to be worried about with AZ. And the clinical results out of the US today are very positive.


I think that an investigation was warranted, I said that.
I do think that for 1 or 2 cases in a million a national halt to vaccination is unwarranted.
I think if they found that there was commonality in the batch and it was a few cases from the same suspect batch, (and much higher odds than 2 in a million) then maybe it would be warranted.
It is important to note that initially they were investigating a batch level issue, not an overall issue.

Remember, our experts did not feel that there was sufficient cause to halt the deployment.

Secondly the US only tests 32k (AZ)-44k (Pfizer) (including control group) for approval. 1 in a million odds is too rare to base policy on.


I think that there the halts and resultant vaccine hestitancy was an overreaction.


----------



## sags

Good uptake on the AZ vaccine, which will relieve pressure on the other vaccines.









Kingston pharmacies bombarded with calls after province expands AstraZeneca vaccine rollout


Almost two weeks after Kingston-area pharmacies received the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in a roll-out pilot project, pharmacists say supply is running low.



ottawa.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> Good uptake on the AZ vaccine, which will relieve pressure on the other vaccines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kingston pharmacies bombarded with calls after province expands AstraZeneca vaccine rollout
> 
> 
> Almost two weeks after Kingston-area pharmacies received the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in a roll-out pilot project, pharmacists say supply is running low.
> 
> 
> 
> ottawa.ctvnews.ca


There has definitely been some coordinated damage control from the media lately, which helps.


----------



## MrMatt

Bananatron said:


> There has definitely been some coordinated damage control from the media lately, which helps.


Of course there has been. The media would be stupid to not kiss up to the Liberals.

The federal government gave the media a massive handout.
I am certain that the next budget will have another massive handout for the media.

Plus as COVID19 continues, do you think certain outlets might get more "COVID awareness" advertising?
Just happens that there is an excuse for more government media spending during this election, you know, "to keep the public informed".


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario reports 2,380 new COVID-19 infections and 17 more deaths; cases are over reported due to data catch-up



> _Ontario reported more than 2,300 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday but the Ministry of Health says today’s case count is over reported due to data catch-up.
> 
> Provincial health officials logged 2,380 new infections on Thursday, compared to 1,571 on Wednesday.
> 
> However, officials say the latest numbers include approximately 280 previous cases due to a “technical issue affecting the flow of laboratory reports into the provincial case and contact management system.”
> 
> The last time the province reported over 2,000 cases was on Jan. 30 when 2,093 cases were logged.
> 
> Provincial health officials reported 1,547 new infections on Tuesday, 1,699 on Monday ..._


 .. either this news-piece title is the dumbest one or Ontario's Health Ministry is fudging numbers. How can one "over-report" the number of cases???? 

For one, 17 deaths is a hell lot more than 10 deaths from yesterday/the day before ... or is that number over reported too????


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> Ontario reports 2,380 new COVID-19 infections and 17 more deaths; cases are over reported due to data catch-up
> 
> .. either this news-piece title is the dumbest one or Ontario's Health Ministry is fudging numbers. How can one "over-report" the number of cases????


_" today’s case count is over reported due to data catch-up."_

The case count reported today is 2 380, however this isn't how many new cases they found today, it includes cases that were omitted from previous counts for some reason. Likely for confirmation, or delayed paperwork or something.

It's just to be clear that the day they report a particular case isn't necessarily the day they found the case.

There are really a few ways to report cases.
Lets say they are reporting 10 cases today, but 2 of those cases are actually from last week it just took this long to get them into the system.
1. Report new cases every day, irrespective of when they happen. Do you say 10 cases reported today, or 8 cases reported today. They are saying "10 cases today, but some are catch ups".
2. Go back and update old data as the data works its way through the system. This would that they'd be continously updating old data.

They're going with option 1 as the primary method, this means that they won't generally revise the released data.

I'm sure somewhere in the background they have another database of which day each case was collected.

They're just trying to be transparent.

And honestly, of all the politicians to complain about, you choose Elliot? She's got one of the most difficult jobs in the country and she's doing an excellent job.


----------



## james4beach

I talked with someone in the lobby of my building. She's here from Edmonton, visiting her daughter.

Great job lady! Make sure to visit lots of local stores while you're here!

The case counts are rising every day. She might have brought covid with her from Edmonton, or might pick it up here and take it back to Alberta.


----------



## sags

A day doesn't go by and some group or other is demanding the restrictions be lifted.

From kids in minor sports to professional leagues, bars and restaurants, conservative politicians and media.......etc.

They don't seem able to comprehend the facts. Ontario hospitals are filling up. They are shuffling ICU patients around. They fear a sudden increase in patients will overcome the hospital system.

The case counts are rising. Hospitalizations are rising. ICU patients are rising. The death count is rising.

What part of that don't these people understand ? Everyone wants back to normal.

The authorities should clearly say......sorry, but you can't.........end of discussion.

Stop with the........gee whiz guys, come on folks, and help us out here,........BS

The restrictions should be criminal laws. The offenders should be arrested and charged.

Let them explain all their rights and how they are being oppressed to a judge.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> A day doesn't go by and some group or other is demanding the restrictions be lifted.


That's why we should, and should have, closed the borders and enforced the lockdown.

As far as what should be shut down, adult gatherings.
The school data shows that schools aren't spreading COVID19.


It's not just conservatives protesting, Trudeau was protesting too, or did you forget?










I support reasonable lockdowns, I support stronger restrictions.
However the one person who has the power to change criminal law is right there, in the middle of a protest during the pandemic.

I think that photo pretty much says it all.
Some things are more important than COVID19 restrictions, and he encouraged millions to flout them. no wonder they aren't taking them seriously.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> That's why we should, and should have, closed the borders and enforced the lockdown.
> 
> As far as what should be shut down, adult gatherings.
> The school data shows that schools aren't spreading COVID19.
> 
> 
> It's not just conservatives protesting, Trudeau was protesting too, or did you forget?
> View attachment 21490
> 
> 
> 
> I support reasonable lockdowns, I support stronger restrictions.
> However the one person who has the power to change criminal law is right there, in the middle of a protest during the pandemic.
> 
> I think that photo pretty much says it all.
> Some things are more important than COVID19 restrictions, and he encouraged millions to flout them. no wonder they aren't taking them seriously.


There’s an army of parents and teachers who think Covid is rampant in schools. Not one case in my kids high school since this all started.


----------



## sags

Continual outbreaks and school closing in our school district.

Do people realize that if a kid is exposed to COVID at school, their whole family needs to be tested and quarantine for 14 days ? The same as our son when a co-worker was exposed. He and 68 others were laid off until they and their families had tests and their kids had to stay out of school for 14 days.

It isn't as simple as "reporting a case" and sending the kid home.









New cases of COVID-19 reported in five TVDSB schools


The Thames Valley District School Board (TVDSB) is reporting new cases of COVID-19 in five of its schools.



london.ctvnews.ca


----------



## sags

Laws already exist if the Provinces want to enforce them.

Creating a disturbance......common nuisance......trespassing......


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> There’s an army of parents and teachers who think Covid is rampant in schools. Not one case in my kids high school since this all started.


No data behind that.
Most schools report only 1 case at a time.
If it was running rampant they'd never find 1 case, they'd find at least 2 or 3 per classroom.

Schools aren't the superspreaders that everyone was concerned about. 
To me it was obvious that they were the most likely vector, even the Simpsons said so.

For COVID19 with at least the initial strain, schools aren't the problem.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Continual outbreaks and school closing in our school district.
> 
> Do people realize that if a kid is exposed to COVID at school, their whole family needs to be tested and quarantine for 14 days ? The same as our son when a co-worker was exposed. He and 68 others were laid off until they and their families had tests and their kids had to stay out of school for 14 days.
> 
> It isn't as simple as "reporting a case" and sending the kid home.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New cases of COVID-19 reported in five TVDSB schools
> 
> 
> The Thames Valley District School Board (TVDSB) is reporting new cases of COVID-19 in five of its schools.
> 
> 
> 
> london.ctvnews.ca


Yes people realize it.

But the kids likely didn't get it at school, so what do you suggest?
If kids aren't getting COVID19 at schools, keeping them out of school doesn't change anything.

You're free to keep your child home, the online learning seems to be working well for kids over 8 or 9.


----------



## agent99

Money172375 said:


> There’s an army of parents and teachers who think Covid is rampant in schools. Not one case in my kids high school since this all started.


Good for you, but I hope you don't think your situation is typical.

My grandson's school had a single Covid case. Because the other students "may" have been exposed to the virus, the school closed and reverted to on-line. Every student, and their families, had to be quarantined for 14 days. Just ended today. Parents could not go to work.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Continual outbreaks and school closing in our school district.
> 
> Do people realize that if a kid is exposed to COVID at school, their whole family needs to be tested and quarantine for 14 days ? The same as our son when a co-worker was exposed. He and 68 others were laid off until they and their families had tests and their kids had to stay out of school for 14 days.


Yep, my son just got a letter from the city's health department yesterday that their daughter's school is closed as of today because of some positives tests and now my son's entire family has to stay home for 14 days and they gave them the dates when they have to report for testing. 

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

agent99 said:


> Good for you, but I hope you don't think your situation is typical.
> 
> My grandson's school had a single Covid case. Because the other students "may" have been exposed to the virus, the school closed and reverted to on-line. Every student, and their families, had to be quarantined for 14 days. Just ended today. Parents could not go to work.


Where is that? 
I'd assume it's a small school, because they're not doing that here in London.


----------



## james4beach

Just want to remind everyone (maybe those of you with adult children) that current stats show that Covid is spreading among people in 20s and 30s. There are quite a few hospital cases in this demographic.

Myself, just today I learned of two people within my circles who have Covid, in this age group.



> Dr. Tam says COVID-19 is no longer only making elderly people ill, *but that infection rates are highest among those aged 20 to 39 years of age.*


----------



## like_to_retire

I wonder if the higher incidence is a result of behavior?

ltr


----------



## james4beach

like_to_retire said:


> I wonder if the higher incidence is a result of behavior?


I suspect so, based on what I've observed (in my small region of the world).

One of my friends in her 30s was inviting me over to her place to hang out. No concern for Covid. This is why I don't ever see her.

I saw young women in the stairwell of my building, exercising without masks in an enclosed space. This is in addition to other people I've seen, violating the building's mask rule, and often walking around without masks. I never saw behaviour like this in the previous months. Just 30 minutes ago, I saw another guy like this, doing laundry in the common area without his mask. Once I make eye contact, the people always pull a mask over their mouths but it's clear *the mask is for show*. They don't care, and they don't think they are going to catch it.

This is a repeated pattern I'm seeing of people in their 20s/30s who really are not concerned. They don't think they are going to catch it, or they don't think it's a serious illness. They "obey rules" superficially, for the sake of rule compliance, but have not understood the actual threat to THEIR health.

Also around here, most of the bars and restaurants are packed. My jaw drops every time I see this... people crammed into these spaces, laughing it up, shouting loudly at each other. It's obviously spreading like wildfire.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Just want to remind everyone (maybe those of you with adult children) that current stats show that Covid is spreading among people in 20s and 30s. There are quite a few hospital cases in this demographic.
> 
> Myself, just today I learned of two people within my circles who have Covid, in this age group.


The 20-29 group has been the highest infected for a long time, however, their hospitalization rate is very low (3.3%). The 30-39 group is slightly higher at 5.3% for hospital stays.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> They don't care, and they don't think they are going to catch it.
> 
> This is a repeated pattern I'm seeing of people in their 20s/30s who really are not concerned.


This is me.

I personally think covid is ridiculous. I haven't obeyed one single rule (except where absolutely necessary) and have lived life normally. Restaurants. Parties. Friends. Work. Whatever.

I live in a city of 500,000.
If I haven't contracted it in a year... Then I'd say this virus thing is quite the non-event. Not to mention even if I did contract it, there is a high possibility I wouldn't even come close to dying.

The thing is @james4beach ,
You can't get upset if people don't do what you want or expect them to do. Some of us are already upset the world is so concerned, but we have to wear masks, anyway. Even if we don't want to.

You will probably think I am ignorant, and I understand this.

But seriously. You could die driving to work. It's time we got over this whole covid thing. If it makes you more comfortable to wear a mask, that is your right. But we should not all have to obey these insane rules.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> This is me.
> 
> I personally think covid is ridiculous. I haven't obeyed one single rule (except where absolutely necessary) and have lived life normally. Restaurants. Parties. Friends. Work. Whatever.


I will assume you would not ever complain, then, if you or your family member gets nailed / killed by a drunk driver or speeder some day. The driver was living his life as he wanted. He wasn't going to be inconvenienced by others. In fact, nearly every time he's been intoxicated and driven his car, or gone 160 km/hr, it's been without consequence.

He might even walk away, unscathed, from the car crash which kills your family member.

I got my car up to 180 km/hr once, and it was pretty fun. Why do we deprive people of this fun?



KaeJS said:


> You can't get upset if people don't do what you want or expect them to do


Right. So I'm sure you would not get upset about the speeder who kills one of your family members. As you say, you can't get upset if people don't follow your rules.

As you put it: it's time we get over the whole drunk driver or reckless driver thing. Many more Canadians die from heart attacks and strokes, then being killed by speeders or drunks.

Thinking about this more, why do we even have police on the roads at all? What a waste of money! People have parties to get to, and friends to see. Just like @KaeJS there are many drivers who have driven as fast as possible, with blood alcohol levels, or blasted through school zones, without anything bad happening. Obviously then, there's no point to traffic rules, no point to having police.

Oh wait, I suppose we still need some cops around. They will have to scrape those bodies off the pavement; I guess they can be like janitors of the 401.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Save your breath J4B.

Until these so-called "it's-my-rights-not-to-follow-the-insane-rules,-restrictions, -lockdowns, -blab, -blab, -blab, etc.!!!!" (aka wannabe-contrarians) get a dose of that unlucky experience, that will be a good lesson.

So just party on for them.


----------



## agent99

KaeJS said:


> This is me.
> 
> You will probably think I am ignorant, and I understand this.


Not just James, but likely most Canadians would view you that way and perhaps much worse. You said it!


----------



## OptsyEagle

So, anyway people, we have another perfect storm coming towards us. There is a bunny involved. Most people call it Easter. The excessive social gathering should begin the weekend after this one. The storm I am talking about is this triple wammy of nonsense:

1) It's been almost 4 months since the last get together at Xmas. People will be ready again to take on these risks.
2) Anyone that successfully pulled off that mistake at Xmas will falsely feel much safer with this one. The only difference is the virus coming to dinner is 30% to 50% more infectious and 64% more deadly, which I doubt any of them will take into account.
2) Grandma and Grandpa have probably been vaccinated so everyone should feel like things are a little safer this year, drawing in a few extra participants to these gatherings.

Should be interesting to watch.


----------



## OptsyEagle

For anyone trying to gauge what this new variant virus might mean with respect to these Easter festivities. From what I have seen from proven data and recalculating it back to each age group, the best way to understand it is that we all just aged about 10 years.

So age 70 is the new 80 now. Age 60 is now 70 and age 50 is age 60, when it comes to infection outcomes from the UK and South African variants, that have become fairly dominant in Canada now. That should be the case all along the age spectrums. So age 40 equals 50, etc., etc..

So stay safe and think about skipping Easter in favour of Thanksgiving this year. It would be highly recommended and our hospitals and ICU departments will be very thankful for that.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> I will assume you would not ever complain, then, if you or your family member gets nailed / killed by a drunk driver or speeder some day. The driver was living his life as he wanted. He wasn't going to be inconvenienced by others. In fact, nearly every time he's been intoxicated and driven his car, or gone 160 km/hr, it's been without consequence.
> 
> He might even walk away, unscathed, from the car crash which kills your family member.
> 
> I got my car up to 180 km/hr once, and it was pretty fun. Why do we deprive people of this fun?
> 
> 
> 
> Right. So I'm sure you would not get upset about the speeder who kills one of your family members. As you say, you can't get upset if people don't follow your rules.
> 
> As you put it: it's time we get over the whole drunk driver or reckless driver thing. Many more Canadians die from heart attacks and strokes, then being killed by speeders or drunks.
> 
> Thinking about this more, why do we even have police on the roads at all? What a waste of money! People have parties to get to, and friends to see. Just like @KaeJS there are many drivers who have driven as fast as possible, with blood alcohol levels, or blasted through school zones, without anything bad happening. Obviously then, there's no point to traffic rules, no point to having police.
> 
> Oh wait, I suppose we still need some cops around. They will have to scrape those bodies off the pavement; I guess they can be like janitors of the 401.


Lol, way to take what I said way out of context.

As I said, if YOU are scared...
Then YOU can wear a spacesuit and sanitize yourself. Don't force others.

I can't protect myself from a car that decides to collide into my from a drunk driver. Drunk driving is nowhere close to the same thing as not wearing a mask. Give me a break.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> As I said, if YOU are scared...
> Then YOU can wear a spacesuit and sanitize yourself. Don't force others.
> 
> I can't protect myself from a car that decides to collide into my from a drunk driver. Drunk driving is nowhere close to the same thing as not wearing a mask. Give me a break.


If YOU are scared of drunk drivers, don't drive! Or get a race car driver's crash cage installed.

Of course you can protect yourself from a car that speeds into you... don't drive!

Stay home and cower in fear. Don't force others to inconvenience themselves just because you are afraid of some "natural risk taking" on the highway.


----------



## Eclectic12

KaeJS said:


> ... I personally think covid is ridiculous. I haven't obeyed one single rule (except where absolutely necessary) and have lived life normally. Restaurants. Parties. Friends. Work. Whatever.
> 
> I live in a city of 500,000.
> If I haven't contracted it in a year... Then I'd say this virus thing is quite the non-event ...


Gee ... using this logic, I made money buying Nortel so this whole bankruptcy thing and people lamenting losing money must be a non-event, right?

Where I am, those I personally know how have been infected in last year are about fifteen with three deaths.
Despite about four percent going into the office, there have been four people reported to have been diagnosed with covid that were in the office.

I'm happy you haven't been infected but your situation is anecdotal.


Cheers


----------



## KaeJS

The stats are not anecdotal.

The amount of people getting the virus is low.
The amount of deaths is even lower.

Where does it end?
Are we just going to wear masks and be in lockdown forever?

People die of the flu, also.
But it was never a problem before.
Suddenly now, it is?

And how do you explain the countries like Sweden?


----------



## Money172375

Do you think there would be more cases if lockdowns were complete lifted? Most would say yes. The problem is ICU capacity and always has been. My mom‘s chemo is delayed cause the hospitals are busy with covid. My dads knee surgery was postponed a year. Now, he needs to get it done so he can recover in time to take my mom to chemo whenever that occurs. Filling the hospitals with covid patients will have repercussions for years with those with other serious ailments.

Many places, such as Florida, have many more ICU beds....I read somewhere, they have 50% more beds per capita.


----------



## OptsyEagle

KJ is another one of those guys who looks at the success we have had with our covid precautions and deduces that since so few people got infected or died that the precautions and lockdowns were obviously not needed.

Unfortuneately he is not alone. Way too many people make that same mistake. 

All I can say is that at least they are alive to make it.


----------



## Eclectic12

KaeJS said:


> The stats are not anecdotal ...


So why were you talking about "I've ignored the rules, my city is 500K ... it's nothing" instead of stats?


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> Do you think there would be more cases if lockdowns were complete lifted? Most would say yes. The problem is ICU capacity and always has been. My mom‘s chemo is delayed cause the hospitals are busy with covid ....


My sister delayed her chemo as when she called to ask what precautions were being taken in her area that is a hot spot last year, the response was "nothing".




Money172375 said:


> ... Many places, such as Florida, have many more ICU beds....I read somewhere, they have 50% more beds per capita.


And IIRC, that's also where when one politician was saying ICU beds running near capacity was a non-issue as for-profit hospitals all run near capacity to make maximum profits, a doctor pointed out that extra capacity had been added so that compared to pre-covid, almost 100% was more like almost 130%.

Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

OptsyEagle said:


> KJ is another one of those guys who looks at the success we have had with our covid precautions and deduces that since so few people got infected or died that the precautions and lockdowns were obviously not needed.
> 
> Unfortuneately he is not alone. Way too many people make that same mistake ...


I guess for those that think this way, the drop in influenza cases are all from influenza taking a year off with an exceptionally effective flu vaccine that more people took.

Cheers


----------



## KaeJS

Eclectic12 said:


> So why were you talking about "I've ignored the rules, my city is 500K ... it's nothing" instead of stats?
> 
> 
> Cheers


0.06% of Canada has died form Covid.
Who knows what other ailments these people had, or what shape they were in.

The numbers don't justify everything.

Sweden's numbers?
0.10%.

No lockdown and they don't even have double the deaths.

Total deaths between both countries is 35,000.
Out of almost 50 million...


----------



## Beaver101

^ Don't take this personally but I wonder if your family would say the same thing as your post if you happen to be one of the .06% (only) who died from Covid? Meh ... "who knows what other ailments these people had, or what shape they were in?" Who cares.


----------



## Spudd

KaeJS said:


> 0.06% of Canada has died form Covid.
> Who knows what other ailments these people had, or what shape they were in.
> 
> The numbers don't justify everything.
> 
> Sweden's numbers?
> 0.10%.
> 
> No lockdown and they don't even have double the deaths.
> 
> Total deaths between both countries is 35,000.
> Out of almost 50 million...


According to Worldometer they do have double the deaths (1 per 757 people vs 1 per 1665 for us). 

My husband's family is Swedish and his brother, brother's girlfriend, and mother have all gotten it. Luckily nobody has died. But his brother (in his 40s) is still suffering after-effects months later, he cannot exercise at all without feeling short of breath.


----------



## Eclectic12

KaeJS said:


> 0.06% of Canada has died form Covid.
> Who knows what other ailments these people had, or what shape they were in.
> 
> The numbers don't justify everything ...


Sure ... but for the three deaths that I knew the person, they were in no distress, were talking to people, reading books, phoning friends and generally active people. 
Catching covid meant trouble breathing, which wasn't a problem before and death in week.




KaeJS said:


> Sweden's numbers?
> ... No lockdown and they don't even have double the deaths.
> 
> Total deaths between both countries is 35,000.
> Out of almost 50 million...


The deaths are interesting but at the same time, writing combined stats when you are trying to show Sweden did a better method is a strange choice.
Especially considering the 2019 population numbers put Sweden at less than one third of Canada's population.

Based on population, the Swedish deaths need to be multiplied by three or more to get to Canada's population.
That as a rough proxy says Canada doing the same thing would be more like over forty thousand deaths.

In comparison, in 2019 influenza is supposed to have killed 6,800 people, which both 22K and 40K are much larger.
And some say the lack of good record keeping/modeling means the influenza deaths should be more like 600.


Cheers


----------



## agent99

KaeJS said:


> Lol, way to take what I said way out of context.


Nothing taken out of context. It's people like you that ARE the problem. It's really surprising that you would admit to such behaviour on a forum like this. You are putting others at risk and you don't care. I hope the authorities find you at one of those parties or otherwise disobeying Covid rules. Maybe a very hefty fine will set you straight.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I may not agree with KJ but I appreciate him giving his opinion. I come to these sites for that very reason. I learned a long time ago that most people don't seem to think like me or see things even remotely the same way as I do. 

I am positive that he is not alone in his view and it is useful to all of us to hear these dissenting opinions.


----------



## Bananatron

OptsyEagle said:


> I may not agree with KJ but I appreciate him giving his opinion. I come to these sites for that very reason. I learned a long time ago that most people don't seem to think like me or see things even remotely the same way as I do.
> 
> I am positive that he is not alone in his view and it is useful to all of us to hear these dissenting opinions.


I think one of the reasons covid and restrictions are so polarizing is the demographics that are least affected by contracting the disease are the most affected by the restrictions.

For people between 16 and 30, their entire lives are centered around socializing and going out. They've had this taken away for the past year for a virus that's little more than a minor inconvenience for most of them. 

Now take me for example, my life didn't change all that much. We don't socialize a whole lot, I kept my job, kids still went to school.

The two biggest inconveniences were losing kids sports in the winter and not being able to have in person visits with family members.

So it's easy to judge or call them selfish, but really they're being asked to give up the most for almost 100% the benefit of others, I think the reaction is simply human. I know how I would have behaved if this happened when I was 22 not 42.


----------



## agent99

Bananatron said:


> So it's easy to judge or call them selfish, but really they're being asked to give up the most for almost 100% the benefit of others, I think the reaction is simply human. I know how I would have behaved if this happened when I was 22 not 42.


Not all older people have survived. Do you think it's acceptable that some young and not so young individuals would ignore the rules, as Kaejs says he has, and put those in the older demographics more at risk and some of them die? 

Please don't condone such behaviour just because participants are young and may not be personally affected. As our politician say - we are together in this. (or should be)


----------



## Bananatron

agent99 said:


> Not all older people have survived. Do you think it's acceptable that some young and not so young individuals would ignore the rules, as Kaejs says he has, and put those in the older demographics more at risk and some of them die?
> 
> Please don't condone such behaviour just because participants are young and may not be personally affected. As our politician say - we are together in this. (or should be)


We are all guided by our own moral compass.

I don't condone it, but I certainly understand it.

For me, I generally follow the government restrictions, no more, no less. Although I have had coffee with my parents twice since November, and get them to pick the kids up from school even though we can or they can take the bus. They're adults, and they know the risks.


----------



## OptsyEagle

You have to walk a mile in each person shoes to truly understand the way they think they should walk.


----------



## cainvest

Bananatron said:


> We are all guided by our own moral compass.


Yup, compliance is all over the map. I know people both young and old that are mainly ignoring the rules, some are just bending them while others are towing the line. Thankfully most seem to care enough about the big picture to follow within the guidelines.


----------



## MrMatt

agent99 said:


> Not all older people have survived. Do you think it's acceptable that some young and not so young individuals would ignore the rules, as Kaejs says he has, and put those in the older demographics more at risk and some of them die?
> 
> Please don't condone such behaviour just because participants are young and may not be personally affected. As our politician say - we are together in this. (or should be)


We should be, but we're not.
And it cuts both ways.


----------



## KaeJS

Covid has been a Mickey mouse hack job from the start. It's no wonder a lot of people, including myself, don't take it seriously.

One minute we're shut down. Then we're open. Then we're shut. Then we can be in a restaurant, but have to wear a mask to the bathroom. Then it's X amount of people in a place at one time. Then restaurants are closed again. Etc, etc.

Listen -

If all this is such a pressing concern, we should be in a full lockdown situation. No restaurants. No schools. No nothing.

You can't make up these whacky rules like "no more than 25 people at an outside event" and all this other **** that doesn't make sense and then expect people not to care.

Also, I would argue that masks don't do a damn thing. Do you know how many people are touching their face now, reusing the same mask over and over, touching apartment door handles and elevators and everything else?

My deepest condolences to anyone who has lost someone. I am not trying to be rude.

But I mean... Come on... Let's be real.
And are liquor stores really a necessity?
I love to drink. I really do.

But let's call a spade a spade.
Don't take a **** and call it solid gold. The doctors and politicians don't even follow the rules.

I love that people will preach covid rules, but then they will order delivery for dinner.
It's honestly a joke.

I also work at a place that is "deemed essential" and you know what? It's not essential. It's essential for making money. But I guarantee you people do not need the products that we make. You can't eat them. They don't provide shelter. They aren't clothes. And they aren't medicine. So, I mean, if I have to be forced to work during a "pandemic" and people can go to restaurants or order delivered food... Well...

Then I'll do whatever I want.

In my mind, we either go balls to the wall and lock it all down hard and fast, or everyone can do whatever they want.

I'm just tired of this flip flopping **** back and forth. It's been a year and we're still dealing with this crap. I'm over it.


----------



## agent99

The pariah has spoken - again 🥺


----------



## NewbieInvestor88

In theory, we should be in heavy lockdown until everyone is vaccinated.


----------



## Bananatron

On the positive side, 217,000 vaccinated today.


----------



## KaeJS

agent99 said:


> The pariah has spoken - again 🥺


If I'm the pariah, I will gladly leave the thread.

No problem.


----------



## james4beach

Bananatron said:


> For people between 16 and 30, their entire lives are centered around socializing and going out. They've had this taken away for the past year for a virus that's little more than a minor inconvenience for most of them.


Not exactly true. Only some people in this demographic live this kind of lifestyle.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> If all this is such a pressing concern, we should be in a full lockdown situation. No restaurants. No schools. No nothing.


You make many good points here. And I do agree that we should lock down EVERYTHING.

I took photos and posted them in the other thread to show how insane it is that these places are open. They should all be closed to indoor activity... we absolutely are sending the mixed messages by having places where people can cram into restaurants and cafes.

And I see, that's what you are saying. You are helping us understand something important about public policy and you are correct: for situations like this, the rules should be super clear, and not complicated, and should not result in ridiculous inconsistencies.

I think everything you are writing is a great example of the public policy failure in Ontario (I presume that's where you are). It's confusing and inconsistent.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> I think one of the reasons covid and restrictions are so polarizing is the demographics that are least affected by contracting the disease are the most affected by the restrictions.
> 
> For people between 16 and 30, their entire lives are centered around socializing and going out. They've had this taken away for the past year for a virus that's little more than a minor inconvenience for most of them.
> 
> Now take me for example, my life didn't change all that much. We don't socialize a whole lot, I kept my job, kids still went to school.
> 
> The two biggest inconveniences were losing kids sports in the winter and not being able to have in person visits with family members.
> 
> So it's easy to judge or call them selfish, * but really they're being asked to give up the most for almost 100% the benefit of others, I think the reaction is simply human.* I know how I would have behaved if this happened when I was 22 not 42.


 ... no doubt the reaction(s) is simply "human".

But I certainly don't agree that these "special" people (aka as whiners so it's not necessarily of a younger age category) is "giving up the most for almost 100% the benefit of others". What exactly are others people benefiting on their "give-ups"? And what's the most? Inconveniences? Lack of socializing? Can't go out to play with friends? Can't go out to pump up the car and race? Exactly what are they giving up that others aren't suffering the same from? I really like to know otherwise give me a break on these whinies, including some other 40 years olds from this forum with a "moral" right to "refuse" lockdowns.... LOL, how moral. More like moronic.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> You make many good points here. And I do agree that we should lock down EVERYTHING.
> 
> I took photos and posted them in the other thread to show how insane it is that these places are open. They should all be closed to indoor activity... we absolutely are sending the mixed messages by having places where people can cram into restaurants and cafes.
> 
> And I see, that's what you are saying. You are helping us understand something important about public policy and you are correct: for situations like this, the rules should be super clear, and not complicated, and should not result in ridiculous inconsistencies.
> 
> I think everything you are writing is a great example of the public policy failure in Ontario (I presume that's where you are).* It's confusing and inconsistent*.


 ... that's the consequences of trying to please everyone when doing a balancing act.

Add: I can't imagine if EVERYTHING was REALLY LOCKDOWN. I think some people will go insane for sure. For one, we haven't even had a "curfew" and the whinies are already freaking out.


----------



## sags

Politicians have been playing footsie with the virus, and stepping all over the white lines.

There has been a failure at all levels of government, but I won't put myself at risk to spite them.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Politicians have been playing footsie with the virus, and stepping all over the white lines.
> 
> It is now reported that Health Canada didn't take the virus threat seriously at first.
> 
> There has been a failure at all levels of government, but I won't put myself at risk to spite them.


We knew in March that they ignored the reports from Intelligence services.


----------



## sags

In January 2020, when I posted this thread....the US was evacuating their embassy in China.

I posted video of people in China in hospitals and keeling over on the street.

They knew.....and they know where it came from......the lab in Wuhan.

How could they not know.......if we did on a small CMF forum ?


----------



## sags

China was locking people inside their homes. They were walking around in Wuhan spraying disinfectant on the streets.

While countries screwed around with half measures, the virus spread and mutated over and over.

No worries.......said some. It takes years for a virus to mutate. Well..........not this virus.

It is now reported that India has a "double mutation" virus spreading rapidly in one area of the country.

They don't know yet if it is more deadly, but it appears more infectious. They also don't know if the vaccines will work on it.

It is late now but........lock everything down for 30 days, continue vaccinations, provide financial support and let those workers who have to work to keep the system running and food supplies coming.........to work in a safer environment.

We have to stop screwing around or there will be a mutation that we have no protection against.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... no doubt the reaction(s) is simply "human".
> 
> But I certainly don't agree that these "special" people (aka as whiners so it's not necessarily of a younger age category) is "giving up the most for almost 100% the benefit of others". What exactly are others people benefiting on their "give-ups"? And what's the most? Inconveniences? Lack of socializing? Can't go out to play with friends? Can't go out to pump up the car and race? Exactly what are they giving up that others aren't suffering the same from? I really like to know otherwise give me a break on these whinies, including some other 40 years olds from this forum with a "moral" right to "refuse" lockdowns.... LOL, how moral. More like moronic.


Condescending attitudes like this (don't worry, you're not unique - I see this every day) are also why covid and the restrictions have become so polarizing.

On one hand you try to come across as a righteous good person who cares about others, on the other hand you dismiss the hardships that the restrictions have brought. 

You're not a righteous or good person who cares about others, you're a sanctimonious arse who cares about their own ego and enjoys taking the moral high ground as a rare opportunity to talk down to people.

A good, kind, decent person doesn't speak to others in this manner.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> China was locking people inside their homes. They were walking around in Wuhan spraying disinfectant on the streets.
> 
> While countries screwed around with half measures, the virus spread and mutated over and over.
> 
> No worries.......said some. It takes years for a virus to mutate. Well..........not this virus.
> 
> It is now reported that India has a "double mutation" virus spreading rapidly in one area of the country.
> 
> They don't know yet if it is more deadly, but it appears more infectious. They also don't know if the vaccines will work on it.
> 
> It is late now but........lock everything down for 30 days, continue vaccinations, provide financial support and let those workers who have to work to keep the system running and food supplies coming.........to work in a safer environment.
> 
> We have to stop screwing around or there will be a mutation that we have no protection against.


And Trudeau was saying there was no reason to close the borders to international travel.
As some have said, he'll be held accountable, likely by winning a majority government.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> In January 2020, when I posted this thread....the US was evacuating their embassy in China.
> 
> I posted video of people in China in hospitals and keeling over on the street.
> 
> *They knew.....and they know where it came from......the lab in Wuhan.
> 
> How could they not know.......if we did on a small CMF forum ?*


 ... that's what the Dump insisted on as well as his former CDC director Dr. R. Redfield. However, Dr. A. Fauci from NAIoIA continues to dispute that and the WHO will be coming out with a report (hopefully) pinpointing the origin of the virus.

https://tellusdaily.com/2021/03/27/dr-fauci-disputes-trump-cdc-directors-covid-lab-escape-principle/


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> Condescending attitudes like this (don't worry, you're not unique - I see this every day) are also why covid and the restrictions have become so polarizing.


 ... no need to use the same lines that I have used before. Use your own creativity for a change if you disagree with me.



> On one hand you try to come across as a righteous good person who cares about others, on the other hand you dismiss the hardships that the restrictions have brought.
> 
> You're not a righteous or good person who cares about others, you're a sanctimonious arse who cares about their own ego and enjoys taking the moral high ground as a rare opportunity to talk down to people.
> 
> *A good, kind, decent person doesn't speak to others in this manner.*


... and neither are you. My opinion as with others.

And exactly what hardships did the "restrictions" brought onto others such as KaeJS, a very able-employed-body? Why don't you mention about the restrictions or your version of being righteous that were imposed on others such as Money's parents in need of medical treatments or how about the more vulnerable seniors in our society, including some on this forum? Guess they're not your version of being righteous or me being the hypocrite, correct?

And do you think our premier had loved to impose on those restrictions? And were they especially reserved for those whinnies? Because I think you do by calling me a sanctimonious arse. It appears you fit that description to a T and take your bullsh1t view that I'm taking a high moral ground and talking down on people. It would appears you're the one who is attempting that right now so others can't pose their opinion(s).

[Btw, if you think my descript of whinnies is "condescending" then I can't imagine what a super-whinnie or how about a real "whimp" will be for you. Now don't cry.]


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> China was locking people inside their homes. They were walking around in Wuhan spraying disinfectant on the streets.
> 
> While countries screwed around with half measures, the virus spread and mutated over and over.
> 
> No worries.......said some. It takes years for a virus to mutate. Well..........not this virus.
> 
> It is now reported that India has a "double mutation" virus spreading rapidly in one area of the country.
> 
> They don't know yet if it is more deadly, but it appears more infectious. They also don't know if the vaccines will work on it.
> 
> It is late now but........lock everything down for 30 days, continue vaccinations, provide financial support and let those workers who have to work to keep the system running and food supplies coming.........to work in a safer environment.
> 
> We have to stop screwing around or there will be a mutation that we have no protection against.


What we do in Canada is irrelevant. There are mutations happening in areas of countries where restrictions do not apply - think of the poorest pockets of India and Brazil. Do you think lockdowns would ever work there? Those people won't see a vaccine for another 18 months, if ever. 

The fate of the coronavirus and its effect on the globe was sealed the day it escaped the lab in Wuhan.


----------



## OptsyEagle

What about this P1 variant from Brazil. It seems to be spreading like wildfire in BC, as we speak. The Brazilian Health minister said it was 3 times more transmissible then the original virus. Remember the UK is about 40 to 70% more transmissible. This is 3 times (200% more) more transmissible. They also talk about reinfection in Brazil. This could get nasty. All just in time for Easter.



> The most recent surge is driven by the P1 variant, which Brazil's health minister said last month is three times as transmissible as the original strain





https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brazil-covid-bolsonaro-governors-restrictions-p1-1.5945293



Viruses that are more transmissible tend to be more violent as well, if for the only reason (and there are more) being that you cannot help but obtain a higher dose of infection for the same time of exposure to the source of infection.


----------



## Beaver101

duplicate


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> What we do in Canada is irrelevant. There are mutations happening in areas of countries where restrictions do not apply - think of the poorest pockets of India and Brazil. Do you think lockdowns would ever work there? Those people won't see a vaccine for another 18 months, if ever.
> 
> The fate of the coronavirus and its effect on the globe was sealed the day it escaped the lab in Wuhan.


... yep, no lockdowns, no restrictions, useless vaccines and everyone on this planet will eventually die. First the older population and then the younger population can go fighting amongst themselves for survival. The end of mankind. Hallujah.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... yep, no lockdowns, no restrictions, useless vaccines and everyone on this planet will eventually die. First the older population and then the younger population can go fighting amongst themselves for survival. The end of mankind. Hallujah.


deep breaths.


OptsyEagle said:


> What about this P1 variant from Brazil. It seems to be spreading like wildfire in BC, as we speak. The Brazilian Health minister said it was 3 times more transmissible then the original virus. Remember the UK is about 40 to 70% more transmissible. This is 3 times (200% more) more transmissible. They also talk about reinfection in Brazil. This could get nasty. All just in time for Easter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brazil-covid-bolsonaro-governors-restrictions-p1-1.5945293
> 
> 
> 
> Viruses that are more transmissible tend to be more violent as well, if for the only reason (and there are more) being that you cannot help but obtain a higher dose of infection for the same time of exposure to the source of infection.


I mean, how can you even fault someone in Canada for not following guidelines when our government knowingly allowed this variant into the country?

It's like we're all trying to bail out a boat with ice cream pails that has a huge hole in the hull that the government refuses to fix.


----------



## cainvest

Bananatron said:


> I mean, how can you even fault someone in Canada for not following guidelines when our government knowingly allowed this variant into the country?


You can fault anyone for not following the guidelines just on that principle alone because .... they are not following the guidelines.


----------



## Bananatron

cainvest said:


> You can fault anyone for not following the guidelines just on that principle alone because .... they are not following the guidelines.


What if this was to go on for another year? Could we fault them for not blindly bailing out the titanic then? 

How about 2 years? 5?

Point is, people are experiencing fatigue from restrictions. This thing was and continues to be botched from a government point of view, and we're the ones that are paying the price with extended, ineffective social restrictions.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I tend to find if you walk in the other person's shoes, whether young, old, politician, business owner, etc., you will probably see things closer to the way they do. We all like to think we are different but we are simply a manifestation of our experiences and biases. For that reason I don't spend too much time pointing fingers. It is what it is.

These new variants do have me a little concerned. The biggest issue is vaccine efficacy but more pressing right now is the fact that all our opinions on this covid threat and what should be done about it, is all based on the original virus, and the covid safety precautions that worked against it. It's infection rates and its hospitalization and death rates are all based on the older variant. As I said upthread, it looks like we all aged about 10 years with respect to the danger these new variants produce.

These new ones are not the same virus, by any means. Remember, before covid precautions were implemented this virus, that infected one person saw them go on to infect 3 others. If P1 is 3 times more infectious, that number goes from 1 person transmitting it to 9. It seems to me that if the P1 gets innocently invited to a person's Easter dinner, there is going to be no one walking out of that gathering without taking some amount of that virus with them.

What does the P1 mean for the safety of outdoor gathering? What does it mean for 6 foot distancing? What does it mean for wearing one cotton mask that allows 30% of the virus through, which most probably do? 3 times 30% looks a lot like 100% not wearing a mask at all, with respect to the old variant. You see what I mean? The virus is starting to get around our defenses.


----------



## cainvest

Bananatron said:


> What if this was to go on for another year? Could we fault them for not blindly bailing out the titanic then?
> 
> How about 2 years? 5?


With the vaccines in play this will likely be over sooner than later. The point being that just because you don't agree with how something is being handled doesn't mean it gives you a "free to ignore the guidelines" card.



Bananatron said:


> Point is, people are experiencing fatigue from restrictions. This thing was and continues to be botched from a government point of view, and we're the ones that are paying the price with extended, ineffective social restrictions.


Yes, it's been difficult, no doubt. As to ineffective lockdowns ... I gather would you're willing to accept more deaths and serious illness providing you can go out and have a coffee with your friends?


----------



## Bananatron

cainvest said:


> With the vaccines in play this will likely be over sooner than later. The point being that just because you don't agree with how something is being handled doesn't mean it gives you a "free to ignore the guidelines" card.
> 
> 
> Yes, it's been difficult, no doubt. As to ineffective lockdowns ... I gather would you're willing to accept more deaths and serious illness providing you can go out and have a coffee with your friends?


I've said earlier in this thread that the restrictions hardly affect me. I'm going to visit my folks today on their sunny deck. Perfectly acceptable. I follow the restrictions because for me, they're quite easy to follow. 

I don't condone, but I certainly understand the frustration and defiance from young people (not just young people but mostly) as the restrictions are more against what young people do - socializing/traveling/ meeting strangers etc.

The restrictions would have been a lot more restrictive to a 22 year old me than a 42 year old me - so I refrain from getting up on my soapbox to scold anyone who struggles with the restrictions because other than missing out on my sons hockey season and a few grand of rental income I've been largely unaffected.

It's like someone who has never struggled with weight shaming someone who is overweight. Unless you've struggled and won the battle against being fat yourself, just keep your mouth shut, because you don't know.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> These new ones are not the same virus, by any means. Remember, before covid precautions were implemented this virus, that infected one person saw them go on to infect 3 others. If P1 is 3 times more infectious, that number goes from 1 person transmitting it to 9. It seems to me that if the P1 gets innocently invited to a person's Easter dinner, there is going to be no one walking out of that gathering without taking some amount of that virus with them.
> 
> What does the P1 mean for the safety of outdoor gathering? What does it mean for 6 foot distancing? What does it mean for wearing one cotton mask that allows 30% of the virus through, which most probably do? 3 times 30% looks a lot like 100% not wearing a mask at all, with respect to the old variant. You see what I mean? The virus is starting to get around our defenses.


Which is why we should have closed the borders.
It seems like now (and way too late) they're taking some efforts, but still not enough.

I don't know why they lied to us for a year.


----------



## sags

I was a young man when SARS and all those other "scares" were around.

It didn't affect me at all. It was like something you read about in the paper but doesn't effect you.

Foolish perhaps but that is why the words are often combined......young and foolish.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Which is why we should have closed the borders.


I'm curious, how much border traffic is there right now compared to 2019?


----------



## OptsyEagle

My point is not whether our government should have closed borders sooner or later or should've or should not have. My point is theses new viruses are here.

*Perhaps we should now think about closing the border to our bloody houses?* That is my point. When this pandemic was first seen, there was a serious feeling of fear, from all age groups as we proceeded to determine the danger we might be facing. As the information came out about the danger of the previous variant, the young felt relieved and of course the older and health compromised remained concerned.

If we had of seen numbers like anything that I am calculating above from this P1 variant, you can be darn sure no one would have felt relieved. A death rate that will be around 3 times what currently exists MULTIPLIED by an infection rate of R=9, is moving into the nightmare classification. It's very concerning. I don't know how our precautions will handle it and I don't know how our vaccines will respond to it, but for now, I would highly suggest closing the borders to your house, until we find out.

Just my suggestion.


----------



## like_to_retire

OptsyEagle said:


> I don't know how our vaccines will respond to it, but for now, I would highly suggest closing the borders to your house, until we find out.


Totally agree.

ltr


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> Continual outbreaks and school closing in our school district.


For those who don't think there is a problem in our schools:

Three in our area: Three schools in Bath, Odessa close due to COVID-19 cases

I posted earlier about grandson's school in Toronto, where I believe they had 6 cases, being closed. I keep reading about closures - Maybe all schools if things don't improve?


----------



## Money172375

agent99 said:


> For those who don't think there is a problem in our schools:
> 
> Three in our area: Three schools in Bath, Odessa close due to COVID-19 cases
> 
> I posted earlier about grandson's school in Toronto, where I believe they had 6 cases, being closed. I keep reading about closures - Maybe all schools if things don't improve?


Gonna be hard to close schools in Ontario when they’re planning to open barbershops and tattoo parlours in 2 weeks. i Don’t think you’ll see a province wide closure of schools.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> I've said earlier in this thread that the restrictions hardly affect me. I'm going to visit my folks today on their sunny deck. Perfectly acceptable. I follow the restrictions because for me, they're quite easy to follow.
> 
> I don't condone, but I certainly understand the frustration and defiance from young people (not just young people but mostly) as the restrictions are more against what young people do - socializing/traveling/ meeting strangers etc.
> 
> The restrictions would have been a lot more restrictive to a 22 year old me than a 42 year old me - so I refrain from getting up on my soapbox to scold anyone who struggles with the restrictions because other than missing out on my sons hockey season and a few grand of rental income I've been largely unaffected.
> 
> It's like someone who has never struggled with weight shaming someone who is overweight. *Unless you've struggled and won the battle against being fat yourself, just keep your mouth shut, because you don't know.*


 ... right from the horse's mouth, only it's from a *true *hypocrite instead of a horse.

I'm still waiting for the explanation of what is it that the whiners are being asked to "give up the most for almost 100% the benefit of the others" or quoted from your earlier post:



> _So it's easy to judge or call them selfish, *but really they're being asked to give up the most for almost 100% the benefit of others, I think the reaction is simply human.* I know how I would have behaved if this happened when I was 22 not 42._


I did/do agree with your statement that the reaction(s) is human ... people are selfish.

And they do deserve to be "judged" when they explicitly "admitted (as in post #4284)" that they couldn't care less (likely not conscientiously) about the restrictions where the real consequences are ... people (other) getting infected, landing in the ICU units, affecting already tired nurses/doctors, the entire health system leading to the delay of medical treatments (with some being life-saving) for others (as in other people). Judging is pretty tame here and if you think calling them "whiners" as being "scolded", then I'm sorry that you're such a sensitive person.

However, I still want to know what is that the OP of post #4284 (btw, he's no longer in his 20s) is giving up or "give up the most for almost 100% the benefit of the others". His life? ... since it can't be the lack of socializing, go out to play, the inconveniences, etc. And just is that how is every one else (including you) benefitting (at almost) 100% from that? I really want to know the answer.

PS: If you're concerned with the OP's mental health, I believe he can get help via his workplace's EAP.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Does anyone wonder, like I do, why this 3rd wave is happening now. It's not just Canada. It seems to be happening worldwide. The 1st wave was understandable. We were caught off guard. The 2nd wave probably a result of Thanksgiving and Christmas and cold weather. But this 3rd wave? Especially with all the vaccinated people to date.

I don't want to go harping on about these variants, but they are peaking my curiosity. We are seeing younger and younger people going to the hospital and ICUs. My calculations are telling me that we all aged another 10 years as it relates to these new variants, when compared to the Covid outcomes from the older virus. The hospitalizations and ICUs seem to be confirming this. The variants might also explain the reason for the 3rd wave happening now.









In Brazil, COVID increasingly hitting the young


Leading the morning medical meeting at an intensive care unit in Sao Paulo, Jaques Sztajnbok reviews his COVID-19 patients.




medicalxpress.com













'Drowning on land': Younger patients and doctors sound alarm over changing COVID demographics


With most of B.C.'s care home residents having received a COVID-19 vaccine, the demographics of serious and fatal infections are shifting so that younger people are now more likely to be hospitalized and die from the disease.



bc.ctvnews.ca





The other problem we will have if this thing does hit the young is that they tend to last a little longer in the ICU before they either die or get better. That means they occupy the scarce beds longer, reducing the availability of them for others.

It's almost like, the virus sees us vaccinate their favorite prey, so they simply find another. They see us stopping 70% of the virus with a mask, so they come up with a way to become 3 times more infectious. I am pretty sure this thing does not have a brain but it seems to have something that keeps it zigzagging successfully against our best efforts to kill it.

Anyway, be careful out there.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Does anyone wonder, like I do, why this 3rd wave is happening now. It's not just Canada. It seems to be happening worldwide. The 1st wave was understandable. We were caught off guard. The 2nd wave probably a result of Thanksgiving and Christmas and cold weather. But this 3rd wave? Especially with all the vaccinated people to date.


Overall easing of restrictions and we still don't have a significant % vaccinated yet.


----------



## Numbersman61

The variants are a prime reason for the numbers rising. The difficulty in comparing variant outbreaks is that each province has its own protocol. Alberta gets variant results in four days; in Ontario it’s at last three weeks. Wait a couple of weeks and the variant cases in Ontario will be significantly higher.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> Gonna be hard to close schools in Ontario when they’re planning to open barbershops and tattoo parlours in 2 weeks. i Don’t think you’ll see a province wide closure of schools.


They also reopen on Apr 12 erotic massages salons


----------



## gibor365

Interesting that after Texas lifted ALL Covid related restrictions 1 month ago, 7 days moving average for New Cases dropped 53% (and death dropped 54%). In Canada with a very strict lockdowns 7 days moving average for New Cases INCREASED by 49%!


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Overall easing of restrictions and we still don't have a significant % vaccinated yet.


Yeah, that's probably it.


----------



## andrewf

KaeJS said:


> The stats are not anecdotal.
> 
> The amount of people getting the virus is low.
> The amount of deaths is even lower.
> 
> Where does it end?
> Are we just going to wear masks and be in lockdown forever?
> 
> People die of the flu, also.
> But it was never a problem before.
> Suddenly now, it is?
> 
> And how do you explain the countries like Sweden?


The rate of infection is low because of the restrictions. Even if you managed not to get infected, that is because of the efforts of everyone else to maintain a low level of infection.


----------



## sags

gibor365 said:


> Interesting that after Texas lifted ALL Covid related restrictions 1 month ago, 7 days moving average for New Cases dropped 53% (and death dropped 54%). In Canada with a very strict lockdowns 7 days moving average for New Cases INCREASED by 49%!


Maybe Texas just stopped reporting accurately.


----------



## gibor365

Our daughters got Covid in Western week ago, now she's in quarantine at University dorm. She tells that it's nothing serious and symptoms like regular cold.
btw, on Wed me and my wife also did Covid testing...my wife got result (negative) on Friday and I still didn't get it (after 4 days)! What a joke is our health system


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Maybe Texas just stopped reporting accurately.


Maybe strict restrictions only increase Covid spread?!


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> btw, on Wed me and my wife also did Covid testing...my wife got result (negative) on Friday and I still didn't get it (after 4 days)! What a joke is our health system


Did you talk to them about your thoughts on covid and what you thought about the Canadian health care system when getting the test? That might explain the delay ....


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> They also reopen on Apr 12 erotic massages salons


lol seriously?


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> lol seriously?


Yeap! One of the biggest, Allure Massage is posted
_We're thrilled to announce our reopening, scheduled for Monday, April 12th!
The ladies' schedule will be posted by Monday April 5th ... _


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> Did you talk to them about your thoughts on covid and what you thought about the Canadian health care system when getting the test? That might explain the delay ....


The interesting thing that me and my wife drove in in the same car why doing the test... We are thinking that such delay in my results can be:
1. they lost my test
2. my case is very complicated, maybe new "gibor variant"


----------



## gibor365

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/pandemic-safety-measures-children-teen-health-impact-1.5953326?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar



Effects of lockdowns"
*Number of youth in hospital after suicide attempt tripled over 4-month period under COVID-19*

_McMaster Children's Hospital says a large number of these youth have reported COVID-related issues such as lack of social interaction, increased conflict at home, and the inability to rely on friends as main contributors. _


----------



## james4beach

The P1 variant (which brewed in Brazil) is now increasingly rapidly in Vancouver, BC.

It's been found in the US too, but I heard a comment on a foreign news channel that outside of Brazil, the highest density of P1 cases are found in British Columbia.

As we keep allowing foreign travel -- which is absolutely ridiculous -- this is the kind of thing we get.


----------



## sags

I don't know why the government is allowing all this international travel.

Today at Toronto flights arriving from Shanghai, Hong Kong, Poland, Jamaica, and all over the US.

These aren't essential workers commuting back and forth to work. Why is this allowed ?

They might as well open up the land borders to drive.

It is probably safer to drive to the desert in Arizona until the COVID is gone than to stay here.


----------



## sags

I don't think Health Canada takes it serious enough. They sound brain dead or muzzled to me.

We are at war with a virus that changes and continues to improve it's attack strategy.

We need to stop providing carriers for the virus so it can mutate.

We could be one freaking mutation away from extinction and we won't know until it is too late.


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> I don't know why the government is allowing all this international travel.
> 
> Today at Toronto flights arriving from Shanghai, Hong Kong, Poland, Jamaica, and all over the US.
> 
> These aren't essential workers commuting back and forth to work. Why is this allowed ?
> 
> They might as well open up the land borders to drive.
> 
> It is probably safer to drive to the desert in Arizona until the COVID is gone than to stay here.


 These people need a PCR test before getting on the plane and they will take another ion arrival then a 3 day hotel quarantine then a 10 day at home quarantine with surveillance and another PCR test. So far only 278 of these folks have tested positive and they were put into government quarantine centers. None of the people who tested positive had been vaccinated.


----------



## Bananatron

zinfit said:


> These people need a PCR test before getting on the plane and they will take another ion arrival then a 3 day hotel quarantine then a 10 day at home quarantine with surveillance and another PCR test. So far only 278 of these folks have tested positive and they were put into government quarantine centers. None of the people who tested positive had been vaccinated.


What are the rules for driving across the border?


----------



## zinfit

Bananatron said:


> What are the rules for driving across the border?


The same but no hotel detentions . The land crossings are mostly snowbirds a different group than arrivals from Africa, the Middle East and Asia arriving at airports.


----------



## sags

We live in an normally quiet area but lately have had a lot of police and ambulance sirens going by.

So, I opened a scanner program that I have on the computer, and it only gets the fire, OPP, and EMT services. 

But in the space of less than a minute.... a couple calls that were related to people with chest pains, abdominal pains and sweating....who they said were COVID positive. People were said to be 55 and 85.

And now....another call about someone aged 88 with positive COVID and symptoms.

And now....another of a 58 year old male in a hotel who is COVID positive with symptoms.

Also a barrage of calls on people stabbing themselves, cutting their wrists, threatening to hurt themselves and other weird behavior. Maybe COVID related depression ?

It makes me wonder how many people have COVID and are at home waiting to see if it gets worse.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> The P1 variant (which brewed in Brazil) is now increasingly rapidly in Vancouver, BC.
> 
> It's been found in the US too, but I heard a comment on a foreign news channel that outside of Brazil, the highest density of P1 cases are found in British Columbia.
> 
> As we keep allowing foreign travel -- which is absolutely ridiculous -- this is the kind of thing we get.


Travel has been seen major restrictions since January especially air travel. Three tests, three day hotel detentions and strict home quarantine. The few with positive tests have been placed in quarantine centers. This is not the cause of the rise of variants. The CDC says that covid19 is mutating into new forms . It s something that is expected. If the Brazilian variant was imported that must have happened before the restrictions imposed in January.


----------



## gibor365

The problem is not with travel, but with our retarded government who cannot ring vaccines to Canada... Last months New Cases in Canada increased by 49% and in Israel decreased by 83%


----------



## sags

With the variants taking over, I don't have much hope for protection from the vaccines.

From what I have read.....the J&J vaccine is the only one tested against the SA variant.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't think the scientists know and there is a newly discovered "double mutation" variant in India.


----------



## sags

I would disagree on where the variants are coming from.

I think they virtually all have come from air travel.


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> I would disagree on where the variants are coming from.
> 
> I think they virtually all have come from air travel.


You don't think snowbirds and spring breakers coming (driving) back from the virus cesspool that is Florida are bringing variants back?

I was listening to a story today about an Ontario snowbird who found out it was cheaper to fly just south of the border then rent a car and drive across.


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> With the variants taking over, I don't have much hope for protection from the vaccines.
> 
> From what I have read.....the J&J vaccine is the only one tested against the SA variant.
> 
> I hope I am wrong, but I don't think the scientists know and there is a newly discovered "double mutation" variant in India.


The vaccines, from what I understand, can be tweaked for any variant. Like a booster shot.


----------



## sags

Bananatron said:


> You don't think snowbirds and spring breakers coming (driving) back from the virus cesspool that is Florida are bringing variants back?
> 
> I was listening to a story today about an Ontario snowbird who found out it was cheaper to fly just south of the border then rent a car and drive across.


Yea.........they could be bringing the variants back now, but in the beginning I think it was from direct international flights.


----------



## sags

Bananatron said:


> The vaccines, from what I understand, can be tweaked for any variant. Like a booster shot.


That is the hope but I don't know if any of the vaccines have a booster shot yet.

AZ is said to be working on one now. I think the others are further along.


----------



## zinfit

Bananatron said:


> You don't think snowbirds and spring breakers coming (driving) back from the virus cesspool that is Florida are bringing variants back?
> 
> I was listening to a story today about an Ontario snowbird who found out it was cheaper to fly just south of the border then rent a car and drive across.


They must still taken three separate spaced tests and then be subject to a 14day quarantine with surveillance. Virtually every returning snowbird has been fully vaccination. They are probably miles ahead of the regular population.


----------



## zinfit

Bananatron said:


> You don't think snowbirds and spring breakers coming (driving) back from the virus cesspool that is Florida are bringing variants back?
> 
> I was listening to a story today about an Ontario snowbird who found out it was cheaper to fly just south of the border then rent a car and drive across.


It is my understanding that the travel restrictions pretty well eliminated Canadian spring breakers from mitigating south.for spring break.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> AZ is said to be working on one now. I think the others are further along.


I seem to remember that the mRNA type are easier to modify.

ltr


----------



## gibor365

zinfit said:


> They must still taken three separate spaced tests and then be subject to a 14day quarantine with surveillance. *Virtually every returning snowbird has been fully vaccination. They are probably miles ahead of the regular population.*


and this is ridiculous, as Trudeau wants to punish fully vaccinated abroad Canadians as they got vaccinated in really developed (not on paper) countries !


----------



## Money172375

Can’t vaccinated people still spread the virus?


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Can’t vaccinated people still spread the virus?


Maybe, though some are assuming they can't.
I believe if you can get it from a door handle, you can get it from a handshake.


----------



## OptsyEagle

People. Take a look in your refrigerator or cupboard and see where all the stuff comes from. Go on to the Canadian site of Amazon.ca and take a look at all the stuff you can order that will be delivered right to your door. That is not all Canadian made. 1000s of people are required to move through our borders everyday to bring us all that stuff from the UK and Brazil and South Africa and every other country in the world.

Wherever the variants are made, they will get to us. We cannot keep them out. That is just wishful thinking.

This virus is no one's fault but it is everyone's problem. It is what it is.


----------



## zinfit

Money172375 said:


> Can’t vaccinated people still spread the virus?


The research out of Israel indicates that this is highly unlikely. The CDC says vaccinated people are not asymptotic and need not be quarantined even if they have been in contact with people with covid.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Money172375 said:


> Can’t vaccinated people still spread the virus?


It's not a yes or no answer, but more of a how many and for how long. The big point every expert seem to miss when it came to explaining the ability of a vaccinated person to be able to transmit the virus was this: There is absolutely no way, that a vaccine that produces an immune response in people that can prevent 94% of symptomatic infections, will not also neutralize the virus inside breathing tracks that would eliminate their ability to transmit the virus they were exposed to. The only thing we did not know is how well it would reduce transmission, not if it would.

Anyway, some real world data from Israel gave us this observation of Pfizer's ability to stop symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. Keep in mind that if you cannot produce enough virus to make a PCR test show positive there is no way you can produce enough to infect someone else. It actually works the other way. A person who has so little virus that they cannot transmit a covid infection to someone else, might still have enough to produce a positive PCR test. PLUS, a person that still could transmit virus to someone else will only be able to do it for a FRACTION OF THE TIME compared to what an unvaccinated person could do. Most of the few people here would not be infectious for more then a few hours at most and they would probably be in the symptomatic infection group.

*In summary. Fully vaccinated people are safe.*









Israeli studies find Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine reduces transmission


Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine greatly reduces virus transmission, two Israeli studies have found, shedding light on one of the biggest questions of the global effort to quash the pandemic.




www.reuters.com







> Data analysis in a study by the Israeli Health Ministry and Pfizer Inc found the Pfizer vaccine developed with Germany’s BioNTech reduces infection, including in asymptomatic cases, by 89.4% and in syptomatic cases by 93.7%.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Maybe Texas just stopped reporting accurately.


 ... or Texas has a "miracle" going on with the open-up ... like a fantasy in someone's head.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/pandemic-safety-measures-children-teen-health-impact-1.5953326?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar
> 
> 
> 
> Effects of lockdowns"
> *Number of youth in hospital after suicide attempt tripled over 4-month period under COVID-19*
> 
> _McMaster Children's Hospital says a large number of these youth have reported COVID-related issues such as lack of social interaction, increased conflict at home, and the inability to rely on friends as main contributors. _


 ... and where are the parents in all of this? How did the children from the horrors of WW2 survive?


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... or Texas has a "miracle" going on with the open-up ... like a fantasy in someone's head.


 The county that I am in provides detailed daily dashboard data . At peak the county was reporting 1200 hospitalizations and 300 people in ICUs. It is now reporting 110 hospitalizations and 40 ICUs. This is an area flooded with migrants from Mexico and central America. The county has four free drive through PCR testing sites. The county has a population of one million. The trend is clearly heading south. I suspect almost everyone over 60 and people with high risk health issues have been fully vaccinated. The state has lifted the face mask mandate but stores are still requiring them and people are still wearing the masks.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> The county that I am in provides detailed daily dashboard data . At peak the county was reporting 1200 hospitalizations and 300 people in ICUs. It is now reporting 110 hospitalizations and 40 ICUs. This is an area flooded with migrants from Mexico and central America. The county has four free drive through PCR testing sites. The county has a population of one million. The trend is clearly heading south. I suspect almost everyone over 60 and people with high risk health issues have been fully vaccinated. The state has lifted the face mask mandate but stores are still requiring them and people are still wearing the masks.


 ... keep in mind the state of Texas has more than 1 county and plenty of cities - where are those stats?

Besides, I read that Texas (link posted somewhere/sometime ago) won the bid for mass-grave burials. [Not being sarcastic here but creeped out.]


----------



## OptsyEagle

I don't think anyone here should need me to tell them that the US will see recovery from this pandemic significantly quicker then Canada will. The reason for that is obvious: Vaccination rates. They will be months ahead.

We have a lot of theory on how well vaccination will work. How safe vaccinated people will be. How safe a person will be socializing with vaccinated people. Whether we will need to wear a mask or not and more importantly what type of person (age and health status) should continue to wear a mask, after vaccination. *The good news for Canada is that these countries will have gone down all the dark roads before us.* They are the guinea pigs for this experiment. Godspeed to them.


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... keep in mind the state of Texas has more than 1 county and plenty of cities - where are those stats?
> 
> Besides, I read that Texas (link posted somewhere/sometime ago) won the bid for mass-grave burials. [Not being sarcastic here but creeped out.]


I don't disagree that Texas was a disaster last summer. There are a lot of unique circumstances that contributed to that situation. It has a very large hispanic population and that is not a healthy population. Their rate of diabetes is 4 times higher the national average. The situation isn't much better with the African-Aerican population. The other circumstance is Texas is on the forefront in dealing with very large numbers of migrants from Mexico. Another reality was indoor gatherings during the extreme 100 plus temperatures during July and August. Many, many Hispanic families are very large [ 4 or 5 children] and intergeneration all living in one household. . Summer in Texas is similar to Canada in the winter when it comes to indoor gatherings. The county I am referring to is Hildago County. I don't pay attention to test results I focus on hospitalizations and ICUs.


----------



## like_to_retire

OptsyEagle said:


> *The good news for Canada is that these countries will have gone down all the dark roads before us.*


No they haven't, since Canada seems to be the only county that is extending the second dose to 4 months. We are the pioneers in this ridiculous nation wide experiment.

ltr


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> I don't disagree that Texas was a disaster last summer. There are a lot of unique circumstances that contributed to that situation. It has a very large hispanic population and that is not a healthy population. Their rate of diabetes is 4 times higher the national average. The situation isn't much better with the African-Aerican population. The other circumstance is Texas is on the forefront in dealing with very large numbers of migrants from Mexico. Another reality was indoor gatherings during the extreme 100 plus temperatures during July and August. Many, many Hispanic families are very large [ 4 or 5 children] and intergeneration all living in one household. . Summer in Texas is similar to Canada in the winter when it comes to indoor gatherings. The county I am referring to is Hildago County.* I don't pay attention to test results I focus on hospitalizations and ICUs.*


 ... same here. But then I'll leave you to see the glass as being half-full as to where the numbers are trending.

As far as I'm aware, better to have the $$$ in order to access medical treatment in the state of Texas (and not the only state) and LOTS of $$$$ for life-saving intervention(s).


----------



## OptsyEagle

like_to_retire said:


> No they haven't, since Canada seems to be the only county that is extending the second dose to 4 months. We are the pioneers in this ridiculous nation wide experiment.
> 
> ltr


I agree with you there. That road we are travelling alone. Another thing to keep in mind.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> I agree with you there. That road we are travelling alone. Another thing to keep in mind.


Guess we'll see how many Canadians disagree with this delay based on the percentage that hold off getting vaccinated.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Guess we'll see how many Canadians disagree with this delay based on the percentage that hold off getting vaccinated.


Right now that is not that critical because whoever waits is quickly replaced by another person more then happy to take their place. Delaying is certainly not a good option for anyone since I doubt too many people are thinking that only 1 shot is somehow worse then none. That would be quite a stretch of the imagination if you ask me.

The problem with this Canadian experiment is that at some point some problem will most likely come to light. Either the one we are currently focused on, which is the immunity not lasting long enough, for some older age groups or even all age groups, or something different, like it working insufficiently against some new variant, under some conditions, with some age groups, etc. The unfortunate part, for those who had to make this tough decision, is that we will never be able to truly quantify how many people were saved by it...only the number that is lost or harmed.

With that said, it is kind of surprising that these leaders actually made this no win decision. I suppose they were tired of taking so much criticism pertaining to the slow vaccination rollout, that they somehow mistakenly thought that this decision to push the 2nd dose out 4 mo. would stop the criticism. Were they ever wrong on that and I doubt many will escape the scrutiny that comes from the results of that decision. I mean something has to go wrong, since something will inevitably go wrong had we done exactly what Pfizer had told us. The only difference is who would be to blame.


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... same here. But then I'll leave you to see the glass as being half-full as to where the numbers are trending.
> 
> As far as I'm aware, better to have the $$$ in order to access medical treatment in the state of Texas (and not the only state) and LOTS of $$$$ for life-saving intervention(s).


You are wanting to change the topic to the merits or lack of merits with the USA healthcare system. That might be a good second discussion. In Texas no hospital can deny emergency health care so a pile of poor and low income people with covid occupy hospital beds and ICUs. The vaccination program was free even to non-citizens including myself.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> Can’t vaccinated people still spread the virus?


As other mentioned , the chance of spreading is extremely low. Even the best vaccine cannot give 100% protection. But this case will be always, even when everyone who wants is vaccinated. *There is absolutely no reason to request from fully vaccinated people to stay in quarantine !* Hopefully hundreds of thousands snowbirds and tourists will remember who imposed this punishment before next elections


----------



## gibor365

> The only difference is who would be to blame.


 Definitely that pharmas like Pfizer and Moderna cannot be blamed as they specified to have 2nd shot 2-3 weeks after 1st one.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> You are wanting to change the topic to the merits or lack of merits with the USA healthcare system. That might be a good second discussion.* In Texas no hospital can deny emergency health care so a pile of poor and low income people* with covid occupy hospital beds and ICUs. *The vaccination program was free even to non-citizens including myself.*


 ... then consider yourself lucky as to where you're located. And continue to believe in what you believe. I have no issue with that. 

However, in a major city like Dallas, Texas I know you can be refused medical treatment (and it's not Covid) if you don't have Medicare. Of course, if you have Medicaid, you'll get priority treatment (as convoluted as it is) because it's direct and collectible billing to Uncle Sam.


----------



## gibor365

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1376622603260063755
Last late Spring my nephew spent 3 weeks in ICU at Sick Kids Hospital with very complicated appendicitis (her family doctor told her to drink and take advil until it became life threatening abd they went to the Hospital). It was a Covid peak that time and my sister-in-law stayed with her daughter in ICU ...she was telling that all ICUs were practically empty ! They just escalating hysteria with fake news


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... then consider yourself lucky as to where you're located. And continue to believe in what you believe. I have no issue with that.
> 
> However, in a major city like Dallas, Texas I know you can be refused medical treatment (and it's not Covid) if you don't have Medicare. Of course, if you have Medicaid, you'll get priority treatment (as convoluted as it is) because it's direct and collectible billing to Uncle Sam.


I I am not here to debate or defend the USA Healthcare system. It has its defects and issues. It has some pluses. What does Pfizer, Moderna, and JNJ have in common ? Or anti viral treatments from the likes of EI Lilly .


----------



## like_to_retire

gibor365 said:


> ...she was telling that all ICUs were practically empty ! They just escalating hysteria with fake news


But we're told that all the ICU's have always been full and are still near full. Are you saying this is an orchestrated scam?

Spiegelman explained, adding his unit has been running at close to full capacity for months.

ltr


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> I I am not here to debate or defend the USA Healthcare system. It has its defects and issues. It has some pluses.


 ...fine. 



> What does Pfizer, Moderna, and JNJ have in common ? Or anti viral treatments from the likes of EI Lilly .


 ... 
Where's AstraZeneca plc for comparison?


----------



## Beaver101

like_to_retire said:


> But we're told that all the ICU's have always been full and are still near full. Are you saying this is an orchestrated scam?
> 
> Spiegelman explained, adding his unit has been running at close to full capacity for months.
> 
> ltr


 ... yes, according to the Blabber whom gibor believes and worships.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1376622603260063755
> Last late Spring my nephew spent 3 weeks in ICU at Sick Kids Hospital with very complicated appendicitis *(her family doctor told her to drink and take advil until it became life threatening abd they went to the Hospital).* It was a Covid peak that time and my sister-in-law stayed with her daughter in ICU ...she was telling that all ICUs were practically empty ! They just escalating hysteria with fake news


 ... is she still your family doctor then? If so, then she's not an idiot.


----------



## gibor365

like_to_retire said:


> But we're told that all the ICU's have always been full and are still near full. Are you saying this is an orchestrated scam?
> 
> Spiegelman explained, adding his unit has been running at close to full capacity for months.
> 
> ltr


ltr, I believe my sister-in-law much more than Canadian media and "health experts" , how ICU's can be full if she was sleeping for days on available ICU bed next to her daughter?!.... so most likely it's a scam.... but again, I'm talking only about Sick Kids Hospital
MPP Roman Baber just gave a real numbers (see my post above).


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> ... is she still your family doctor then? If so, then she's not an idiot.


It's practically impossible to find normal family doctor in Ontario even in normal times , not even talking about current times.... The surgeon in Sick Kids Hospital told that he never seen so complicated appendicitis and if they were comming even 1 day later , very likely the 12 yo girl won't survive... 
and their family doctor was insisting that there is no point to go to the Hospital....just drink liquids and take Advil.... this how "amazing" our health care!


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ...fine.
> 
> ...
> Where's AstraZeneca plc for comparison?


It took US funding and has a production facility in the USA. In any event its history of ups and downs isn't a ringing endorsement for vaccine development.


----------



## zinfit

zinfit said:


> It took US funding and has a production facility in the USA. In any event its history of ups and downs isn't a ringing endorsement for vaccine development.


I note Canada is now suspending AZ use for people under 55.


----------



## gibor365

zinfit said:


> I note Canada is now suspending AZ use for people under 55.


Yeap, Canada is a very weird place....just couple of days ago they announced that AZ is perfect for everyone  😂
No wonder, people doesn't trust them!


----------



## gibor365

In Ontario The population is 14,755,211 Deaths is 7308 Chance of survival 99.95%

For james
British Columbia The population is 5,153,039 Deaths 1449 Chance of survival 99.97%

In Canada we have a population of 38,048,738 and they say the ‘virus’ took 22852 lives so we have a 99.94% chance of surviving it! 

In 2020 the world population was 7.8 billion and they say the ‘virus’ took 2,788,800 lives so the survival rate is 99.965%


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> In Canada we have a population of 38,048,738 and they say the ‘virus’ took 22852 lives so we have a 99.94% chance of surviving it!


Only with the containment measures we used. Infections would have been far higher had we done nothing. So, it is not accurate to say that the containment worked so well, you had very low chance of dying, so we didn't need to do containment.


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> In Ontario The population is 14,755,211 Deaths is 7308 Chance of survival 99.95%
> 
> For james
> British Columbia The population is 5,153,039 Deaths 1449 Chance of survival 99.97%
> 
> In Canada we have a population of 38,048,738 and they say the ‘virus’ took 22852 lives so we have a 99.94% chance of surviving it!
> 
> In 2020 the world population was 7.8 billion and they say the ‘virus’ took 2,788,800 lives so the survival rate is 99.965%


You have to realize that most people haven't gotten COVID yet


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> You have to realize that most people haven't gotten COVID yet


You have to realize that most people won't get Covid at all.
In Israel just 9% of population got Covid and because they practically finished vaccination . it may raise max to 10%


----------



## gibor365

Today is already 6th day as I had Covid testing done! Still NO RESULTS! My wife , who was with me in same car, had results on Friday! Just imagine that if I'd be coming from abroad.....I should've stay at least 6 nights and pay huge $$$ for staying in Trudeau's "prison-hotel".
Catherine McKenna's husband Scott Gilmore was right again "Canada is not a country"! it's one big circus with top performing clown J. Trudeau

Meantime, poor Cuba tests all incoming tourists and give test results instantly


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> Only with the containment measures we used. Infections would have been far higher had we done nothing. So, it is not accurate to say that the containment worked so well, you had very low chance of dying, so we didn't need to do containment.


This is all speculations! Nobody knows what would be if ... Virus doesn't care if you are in lockdown and what color zone you declare, red, grey or black. 2 biggest Covid hotspots Toronto and Peel are in lockdown about 6 months, nothing got changed, but from Jan numbers of new daily cases dropped 3 times (from 8885 to 2919) and last couple of weeks increased 1.6 times (from 2919 to 4766) and this is despite our "amazing" rate of vaccination 
Same time after Texas lifted all restrictions , number of daily new cases dropped 2.2 times (from 7253 to 3320).
Thus, currently Canada (with huge lockdowns) overpassed Texas (with no any restrictions) by 7 day moving average of new cases per 1M of population 125.8 vs 114.5


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> This is all speculations! Nobody knows what would be if ... Virus doesn't care if you are in lockdown and what color zone you declare, red, grey or black.


No speculations, virus can't spread when people are not around each other ... yup, simple as that. 
You are correct on the virus can't see color though ...


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> You have to realize that most people haven't gotten COVID yet


Right. Currently, we are limiting its spread due to all these safety measures. Very few people in Canada are catching COVID, and I hope it remains that way.

The important questions are, what % of people who catch COVID end up very sick, requiring hospital care. Everything is fine as long as our hospitals are not filled with COVID cases.

Good signs though. I guess BC's public health officials saw the same things I saw in those photos I posted, so they are now closing all restaurant dining and gyms. Another good sign is that I went through a fast food drive-though today and decided to wear a mask at the window. The young woman working at the window seemed surprised and said, "you're the 7th person I've seen today wearing a mask in the drive-through!"

Which is good... it appears the public in BC got the message that we're in trouble, with current numbers.

Actions like the extra cautious mask usage also sends a message, for example to the young woman working there, that this is in fact a serious situation


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Right. Currently, we are limiting its spread due to all these safety measures. Very few people in Canada are catching COVID, and I hope it remains that way.
> 
> The important questions are, what % of people who catch COVID end up very sick, requiring hospital care. Everything is fine as long as our hospitals are not filled with COVID cases.
> 
> Good signs though. I guess BC's public health officials saw the same things I saw in those photos I posted, so they are now closing all restaurant dining and gyms. Another good sign is that I went through a fast food drive-though today and decided to wear a mask at the window. The young woman working at the window seemed surprised and said, "you're the 7th person I've seen today wearing a mask in the drive-through!"
> 
> Which is good... it appears the public in BC got the message that we're in trouble, with current numbers.
> 
> Actions like the extra cautious mask usage also sends a message, for example to the young woman working there, that this is in fact a serious situation


Ontario is having a massive surge.
Here in about a week we ramped up close to to what we got right after christmas holidays, and we're back to lockdown.

we're about 2/3 new variants, explosive growth, and the hospitals are filling quickly.
Fortunately my neighbour recently got their surgery that was delayed


----------



## Eclectic12

gibor365 said:


> This is all speculations!
> Nobody knows what would be if ... Virus doesn't care if you are in lockdown ...


Sure ... but you are speculating that the restrictions made no difference, influenza is spread in a similar way where the case count compared to previous years is tiny.

If it's not the lockdown, washing hands more frequently etc. - what's your theory as to why one virus doesn't care and similar ones do care?


Cheers


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> It's practically impossible to find normal family doctor in Ontario even in normal times , not even talking about current times....


 ... please re-read "your" post and see how credible it is.

Let me do the translation for you here. It's practically impossible to find a normal family doctor in Ontario 'for someone who lived in Ontario for 22 years or so" even in normal times (of the 22 years, still here), not even talking about current times (or unfortunately a Covid event year of 2020 + current 2021). And yet "Missisauaga, Ontario" where you reside is so outdated that a "normal (what's that?)" doctor do not exists. Or is it because only abnormal doctor(s) exist there????

And is she's still your family doctor, ain't she? Did you drop her? You have that "right" - make that a "moral" right to replace her if she's so incompetent.

Summary above: What are you farting about?



> The surgeon in Sick Kids Hospital told that he never seen so complicated appendicitis and if they were comming even 1 day later , very likely the 12 yo girl won't survive...
> and their family doctor was insisting that there is no point to go to the Hospital....just drink liquids and take Advil.... this how "amazing" our health care!


 ... ah, and now the amazing unbelieveable crap care you got from the Sick Children's surgeon? No problem, right?

Bottomline: Other than spewing nonsense, with the biggest mouth here, you can also stand for being the *Biggest "H"*? 

I'll let you figure out what that H (hint: not a swear word/profanity) stands for.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> Right. Currently, we are limiting its spread due to all these safety measures. Very few people in Canada are catching COVID, and I hope it remains that way.
> 
> The important questions are, what % of people who catch COVID end up very sick, requiring hospital care. Everything is fine as long as our hospitals are not filled with COVID cases.
> 
> Good signs though. I guess BC's public health officials saw the same things I saw in those photos I posted, so they are now closing all restaurant dining and gyms. Another good sign is that I went through a fast food drive-though today and decided to wear a mask at the window. The young woman working at the window seemed surprised and said, "you're the 7th person I've seen today wearing a mask in the drive-through!"
> 
> Which is good... it appears the public in BC got the message that we're in trouble, with current numbers.
> 
> Actions like the extra cautious mask usage also sends a message, for example to the young woman working there, that this is in fact a serious situation


 ... on the latest, I think ON's premier can borrow BC premier's line with:

*'Do not blow this for the rest of us': B.C. strengthens COVID-19 restrictions indoors amid growing cases*
Elisabetta Bianchini
Mon., March 29, 2021, 5:38 p.m.·2 min read

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1879178819924


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Ontario is having a massive surge.
> Here in about a week we ramped up close to to what we got right after christmas holidays, and we're back to lockdown.
> 
> we're about 2/3 new variants, explosive growth, and the hospitals are filling quickly.
> Fortunately my neighbour recently got their surgery that was delayed


Yup.....it is getting nuts with all the outbreaks, COVID patients and crazy behavior.

The emergency services were struggling to keep up on the weekend.


----------



## Beaver101

'Don't make plans for Easter:' Ford hints more restrictions could soon be coming amid surge in cases

Note: Applicable to Ontario, Canada


----------



## sags

Will this shutdown be the like the Christmas one that came into effect after Christmas ?

Sorry Doug.......but nobody is listening to you anymore.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> Will this shutdown be the like the Christmas one that came into effect after Christmas ?
> 
> Sorry Doug.......but nobody is listening to you anymore.


People haven't been listening for a very, very long time...


----------



## Money172375

So after multiple consultations, video meetings, blood tests, x-rays....my dads knee replacement has been postponed due to limited ICU capacity. iCU usage is at an all-time high in Ontario. predicting lockdown announcement tomorrow.


----------



## sags

Our area is in red zone effective today.

New reports are that Washington State in the US has recorded over 100 people contracting COVID *weeks after* *they were fully vaccinated*. 

I think the virus mutations are screwing up the known science.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Our area is in red zone effective today.
> 
> New reports are that Washington State in the US has recorded over 100 people contracting COVID *weeks after* *they were fully vaccinated*.
> 
> I think the virus mutations are screwing up the known science.


The question is how severe were the symptoms? 
Maybe it's better just to get the virus , to suffer couple of days and have antibodies?!
Our daughter in Western got UK variant 10 days ago, telling that it's like mild flu....


----------



## Beaver101

Older Ontarians most involved in spreading COVID-19 misinformation online: study



> _TORONTO - A new study suggests Ontario residents between the ages of 55 and 64 are most involved in spreading misinformation about COVID-19 on social media.
> 
> *Research published today by the Ontario Medical Association found that six per cent of Ontarians are spreading misinformation about the pandemic online and the vast majority are older adults.*
> 
> Men and women in that age group were almost equally involved in sharing misinformation *and the research found many posters had been accessing right-leaning websites and U.S. politics blogs.
> 
> The study by Advanced Symbolics Inc. applied artificial intelligence technology to Twitter posts made between March 24, 2020 and March 24, 2021.*
> 
> It found engagement was highest in eastern Ontario communities, including Ottawa, its surrounding areas and rural areas.
> 
> Association president Dr. Samantha Hill says the study shows misinformation needs to be addressed across all communities and demographic groups._


 ... for a moment, I thought this related news-piece was talking about CMF.


----------



## gibor365

btw, already 1 week passed from my Covid test and I still didn't get my results!!!! Our healthcare is truly a joke !
In poor Cuba, they make Covid test to all arriving tourists and giving instant results!


----------



## gibor365

Eclectic12 said:


> Sure ... but you are speculating that the restrictions made no difference, influenza is spread in a similar way where the case count compared to previous years is tiny.
> 
> If it's not the lockdown, washing hands more frequently etc. - what's your theory as to why one virus doesn't care and similar ones do care?
> 
> 
> Cheers


People always gonna find loopholes.... Bar and restaurants are closed, so more people attending indoor parties in private houses (and it's even worse as bars/restaurants at least have some protocol), 3 days hotel quarantine on arrival?! - no problem, people fly to Buffalo and cross bridge on foot and so on


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> I think the virus mutations are screwing up the known science.


Makes you wonder if the virus was engineered, given the way it seems to be finding avenues to harm.

ltr


----------



## sags

I think the virus came from the lab in Wuhan and have from the beginning.

It is too much of a coincidence that that lab experiments on the worst pathogens to see what damage the viruses could do under certain circumstances, and that is exactly where the outbreak started and spread outward from there.

WHO just did an investigation with the Chinese following them everywhere and not giving access to the scientists who worked in the Wuhan lab, not that they would dare talk openly anyways.

The WHO are back to the virus coming from bats again. It came from bats to animals to humans........they "think", but they don't know for sure and don't seem to care all that much.

None of the authorities seem to concerned about the origin of the virus.....despite the origin is a crucial bit of information to understand the virus.

So why would scientists cover up the origin ? Maybe because the lab is funded by scientific groups from all over the world and they were doing exactly what it was known they do.

The problem was......the virus escaped somehow or was let out by a disgruntled employee.

The scientific community is covering up for funding the type of "gain of function" experiments that turn the viruses into more deadly pathogens. Many scientists warned of the dangers of such experiments and predicted exactly what happened.

Recent press releases are now referring to the Wuhan lab as a '"biosafety" lab.

Sure......nice spin.









The Controversial Experiments and Wuhan Lab Suspected of Starting Pandemic


After reporting that Covid-19 occurred naturally, U.S. intelligence modified its stance to say it might have leaked from a lab.




www.newsweek.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Our area is in red zone effective today.
> 
> New reports are that Washington State in the US has recorded over 100 people contracting COVID *weeks after* *they were fully vaccinated*.
> 
> I think the virus mutations are screwing up the known science.


Not at all, go back a year when they were talking about creating a vaccine.
I remember one user who said that one of the reasons we don't have a coronavirus vaccine is because it mutates quickly and is hard to target.
Also that there would be concerns about the longevity of any immunity, because traditional coronaviruses have short lived immunity.
(hint it was me)

Just a quick search shows we've known that coronavirus immunity is short lived.
This research is from over 30 years ago, and I'm sure it's not the earliest.


https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/BF01317914.pdf



*The virus mutations aren't changing anything about the known science. *
There are a lot of people with uninformed or misinformed hope. Because they decided to ignore the known science.
If you're surprised that COVID19 is behaving like the vast majority of coronaviruses, I have to ask, why?
Why did you think the coronavirus strain CoV-SARS-2 would be so different from every other strain?


So what, short lived immunity = build a few factories and mass produce a vaccine that we'll take all the time.


----------



## gibor365

> I think the virus came from the lab in Wuhan and have from the beginning.


 Very likely! The question if it was by accident, or on purpose. This virus benefited China a lot....
Last year , I also read version that some guy who worked in Wuhan lab, stole bats from there and sold on wet market...so, who knows.......


----------



## gibor365

_The belief that the virus was created as a biological weapon is predominant in Russians aged 40-54, with 71% of them holding that view, the poll found. Only 23% think the virus emerged naturally. 









Over 60 per cent of Russians don't want Sputnik V vaccine, see COVID-19 as biological weapon: poll


Nearly two thirds of Russians are not willing to receive Russia's Sputnik V vaccine, and about the same number believe the new coronavirus was created artificially as a biological weapon, an independent pollster said on Monday.




www.ctvnews.ca




_


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Our area is in red zone effective today.
> 
> New reports are that Washington State in the US has recorded over 100 people contracting COVID *weeks after* *they were fully vaccinated*.
> 
> I think the virus mutations are screwing up the known science.


The vaccines were never guaranteed to prevent infection, just reduce incidence of several symptoms.


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> _The belief that the virus was created as a biological weapon is predominant in Russians aged 40-54, with 71% of them holding that view, the poll found. Only 23% think the virus emerged naturally.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Over 60 per cent of Russians don't want Sputnik V vaccine, see COVID-19 as biological weapon: poll
> 
> 
> Nearly two thirds of Russians are not willing to receive Russia's Sputnik V vaccine, and about the same number believe the new coronavirus was created artificially as a biological weapon, an independent pollster said on Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _


I doubt it was deliberate, and I doubt it was a weapon, but the possibility that it was a lab leak is not unreasonable. It doesn't really matter, other than inform the level of care the virology community need to be taking as they study viruses, particularly when experimenting on modifying them.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> I doubt it was deliberate, and I doubt it was a weapon, but the possibility that it was a lab leak is not unreasonable. It doesn't really matter, other than inform the level of care the virology community need to be taking as they study viruses, particularly when experimenting on modifying them.


Maybe yes, maybe not... Nobody knows ... Just known that China prevented couple of times arriving investigation commission... 
In any case, if China killed tens millions of their own people during Cultural Revolution, it's nothing for them to sacrifice couple of thousands


----------



## andrewf

I don't think COVID really advances China's interests in any meaningful way.


----------



## sags

I found it chilling to read an expert say a deliberate release by China was highly unlikely because they wouldn't do that without having developed an effective vaccine against it first.

So....is he saying that China might release a virus if they had a vaccine to protect themselves ?

Scary thought, but I watched Seaspiracy tonight on Netflix and figure the world is doomed anyways, so if we get eliminated by a virus or wait for the inevitable self destruction........we are just waiting around to see how it is all going to end anyways.


----------



## andrewf

Biological weapons are not really a credible threat, at least from state actors. A government might develop a bioweapon, and an associated vaccine to protect its own people, but it wouldn't save them from the nukes that could fly in retaliation. And it's also very dangerous to assume that a vaccine will protect you as once a virus is out in the wild, it is free to mutate and potentially evade your vaccine.

Of course, it is getting easier and easier for any death cult/terrorist outfit with a basement lab to edit viruses. That is the real cause for concern. The danger being that they may not game-out the implications or be fully rational.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> I don't think COVID really advances China's interests in any meaningful way.


It did! For example








Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid


A UK-based think tank says the pandemic has caused economic momentum to shift further in favour of Asia.



www.bbc.com


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> It did! For example
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid
> 
> 
> A UK-based think tank says the pandemic has caused economic momentum to shift further in favour of Asia.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


It was going to overtake the US, anyway.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> I found it chilling to read an expert say a deliberate release by China was highly unlikely because they wouldn't do that without having developed an effective vaccine against it first.
> 
> So....is he saying that China might release a virus if they had a vaccine to protect themselves ?
> 
> Scary thought, but I watched Seaspiracy tonight on Netflix and figure the world is doomed anyways, so if we get eliminated by a virus or wait for the inevitable self destruction........we are just waiting around to see how it is all going to end anyways.


Who knows?! Maybe China already had vaccine ! Don't you find strange that China , with it's overpopulated cities, on sharing with Eritrea ... 192th place in the World by Deaths per 1M!!!
It's 620 times less than in UK


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> I don't think COVID really advances China's interests in any meaningful way.


People might be thinking of an ex CDC guy who said he believes the virus escaped from a Chinese lab.

The conspiracy theory people are spinning that to sound nefarious, when the CDC guy explicitly said it's not nefarious. He just suspects that experiments were being done in a Chinese lab (the same way they are done in the Winnipeg lab by the way), except that through sloppy protocols or something, the virus escaped the lab.


----------



## andrewf

james4beach said:


> People might be thinking of an ex CDC guy who said he believes the virus escaped from a Chinese lab.
> 
> The conspiracy theory people are spinning that to sound nefarious, when the CDC guy explicitly said it's not nefarious. He just suspects that experiments were being done in a Chinese lab (the same way they are done in the Winnipeg lab by the way), except that through sloppy protocols or something, the virus escaped the lab.


Even if the virus escaped a lab in China, this research is typically international collaborations.


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> Who knows?! Maybe China already had vaccine ! Don't you find strange that China , with it's overpopulated cities, on sharing with Eritrea ... 192th place in the World by Deaths per 1M!!!
> It's 620 times less than in UK


They have been ruthless with lockdowns and closed borders.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> Even if the virus escaped a lab in China, this research is typically international collaborations.


Very true. I think one might blame such a lab for having poor protocols (if a virus got out), which is sloppy and dangerous. But nobody is saying there is nefarious, bio weapon development or anything like that.

Unfortunately I think that the conspiracy people are spinning stories like this about China.


----------



## sags

I think turning viruses into lethal weapons is exactly what that lab in Wuhan is doing........hence all the secrecy surrounding it.

Against the advice and warnings of fellow scientists, some scientific groups plunged ahead and sponsored this type of research on deadly viruses.

Chinese scientists working in the Candian lab in Winnipeg got caught taking virus samples to China and it was quickly covered up.

Several scientist in US labs have been caught trying to illegally transport viruses to China. One guy got caught at the airport with a suitcase full of samples of deadly viruses.

If it is all above board at that Wuhan lab..........why all the illegal activity involved in bringing samples to it ?


----------



## gibor365

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1377581855197773825


----------



## cainvest

With our unseasonably warm weather I was able to get our for a ride today with a bunch of friends. Everyone hopes they continue to control the covid spread with tight restrictions here until more get the vaccine. Hopefully we'll be racing again this year.


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1377581855197773825


They're projecting issues in a few weeks. Toronto is shipping ICU patients out to other regions already. If we wait until ICUs are full to bend the curve, we'll end up with many people not receiving ICU care as it takes 2 weeks+ for measures to reduce infections and more for ICU admissions.

Maybe let's see where we end up in 2 - 3 weeks and see if gibor is right.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Even if the virus escaped a lab in China, this research is typically international collaborations.


Yeah, but just because you have access to the lab doesn't mean you have access too all ares.
They'd block off sensitive stuff.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, but just because you have access to the lab doesn't mean you have access too all ares.
> They'd block off sensitive stuff.


It could have happened at any lab globally.

Here's an example of Foot and Mouth Disease, which caused a devastating outbreak in the livestock industry in the UK. It was determined to have escaped via a leaky drainage pipe. Lab leaks are a possibility, and it should be considered when experimenting on pathogens.









Faulty pipe blamed for UK foot and mouth outbreak


A government-run research facility was the source of the virus that crippled the UK's farming industry last month, say officials




www.newscientist.com


----------



## sags

Our area is exploding in cases of COVID. We are near the high totals we had last January.

We had 244 new cases in the last 2 days.

The local health authority posted an "urgent notice for young adults" that over 50% of the new cases involve young adults aged 18-22. Outbreaks at 5 student residences at Western University, 3 schools and 2 LTC homes are also reported. There were already outbreaks at the local hospitals and some schools.

Ontario wide we are at pandemic high levels of ICU admissions.

It is getting worse and doctors and experts are saying the Ford government needs to get their act together. The COVIIDIOTS are killing people.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> It is getting worse and doctors and experts are saying the Ford government needs to get their act together. The COVIIDIOTS are killing people.


It's possible it's spreading among young adults due to factors they cannot control. You mentioned student residences; they can't help that (but yes the residences are dangerous).

Even outside universities, young adults have less money, so they have roommates. Anyone living with roommates is in a riskier situation. Young adults also have public-facing jobs which put them in danger. They work in grocery stores, do deliveries, have to interact with customers and the public.

Unfortunately the new variants are more infectious, so the same young adults which used to live together or work at their jobs without spreading the bug, can now be spreading it. The precautions they have taken up to now may have worked, but the variants are more infectious, so they can now become infected even while taking the precautions they always have.

Everyone has to now step up to better masks (N95 or double-up the cheaper ones), keep more distance from everyone, and also remain in their own city.

I think what happened is that people spread COVID like crazy during spring break. In a recent call-in radio show, I heard a teacher say that kids in class were all excited and telling each other how their families travelled around during spring break.


----------



## Beaver101

'Totally healthy' teacher now intubated in Toronto hospital after contracting COVID-19

Btw, cp24 is a legitimate news channel.


----------



## sags

Schools are as dangerous as student residences. They spread infections throughout their local area because that is where the kids all live. They should be closed down for the balance of the year.

There is no rush to getting kids into the next level. A year or two to wait isn't the end of the world.

What is critical is that they are ready to move up to the next level when they do.....not because of age.


----------



## andrewf

Vancouver Canucks have 20 players/coaches infected with the Brazilian variant despite daily tests and all the precautions. One person goes into a 2hr practice with COVID, 20 people come out infected. Family members also infected. A bunch of 20-30 year old elite athletes apparently quite ill.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> Vancouver Canucks have 20 players/coaches infected with the Brazilian variant despite daily tests and all the precautions. One person goes into a 2hr practice with COVID, 20 people come out infected. Family members also infected. A bunch of 20-30 year old elite athletes apparently quite ill.


And with possible long term effects, it could have significant impacts on some of these elite athletes' careers.

As I posted above, the variant is a game-changer. It's more infectious. Whatever methods people used before (which they thought were safe) may no longer offer sufficient protection.



Beaver101 said:


> 'Totally healthy' teacher now intubated in Toronto hospital after contracting COVID-19


Yup. It's a very dangerous virus, even for 20 and 30 year olds.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Schools are as dangerous as student residences. They spread infections throughout their local area because that is where the kids all live. They should be closed down for the balance of the year.
> 
> There is no rush to getting kids into the next level. A year or two to wait isn't the end of the world.


I agree, kids clearly spread this. The teachers are terrified too.

Shut down ALL schools in the country, now. At least to get some breathing space as we figure out what's going on.


----------



## andrewf

I would prioritize teachers for vaccination. I think it is important that kids receive in-class instruction, particularly younger kids. Teenagers I think can do online classes, and they are more likely to be rebelling against distancing rules.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I agree, kids clearly spread this. The teachers are terrified too.
> 
> Shut down ALL schools in the country, now. At least to get some breathing space as we figure out what's going on.


What data are you basing that on?

The data I see, kids are clearly NOT spreading it.

Most schools get only a single case, my neighbours kids school had 2 cases, because they were brothers.
Not a single other kid got COVID19 at the school.
My kids school, 1 case, nobody else in the entire school

Kids at school are not spreading it.
They're hanging out together, eating together, several hours a day, 5 days a week, and we're just not seeing outbreaks in schools

If kids were spreading it at schools, you'd expect at least some of the schools to have multiple kids in the same classroom, that's rare.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> What data are you basing that on?
> 
> The data I see, kids are clearly NOT spreading it.


You're right. I did some searching, and did not find any data that suggests that kids spread it to their families. There are many "exposures" in schools, but it doesn't look like kids bring COVID home with them too often.

The teachers are in great danger though. They need to be vaccinated ASAP.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> . The COVIIDIOTS are killing people.


Yep.

But nobody else, right?

Just the people disobeying the bullsh!t rules?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> You're right. I did some searching, and did not find any data that suggests that kids spread it to their families. There are many "exposures" in schools, but it doesn't look like kids bring COVID home with them too often.
> 
> The teachers are in great danger though. They need to be vaccinated ASAP.


Yeah, it was really surprising, but there are very few cases, let alone outbreaks in school


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, it was really surprising, but there are very few cases, let alone outbreaks in school


This is counterintuitive. Children spread colds & flus, for example (but then again, children are vulnerable to those bugs, unlike COVID).

Over the years, I have dated a couple different school teachers and they were constantly sick with bugs they caught from the children.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> This is counterintuitive. Children spread colds & flus, for example (but then again, children are vulnerable to those bugs, unlike COVID).
> 
> Over the years, I have dated a couple different school teachers and they were constantly sick with bugs they caught from the children.


You think they get sick alot, daycares are worse. for the first few months, they're only there half time.
I don't think it's as much daycare as immune system development.


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> You're right. I did some searching, and did not find any data that suggests that kids spread it to their families. There are many "exposures" in schools, but it doesn't look like kids bring COVID home with them too often.
> 
> The teachers are in great danger though. They need to be vaccinated ASAP.


Not sure if it’s schools yet......but the Ontario news lately has doctors talking more and. Ore about whole families being in hospital/icu. Don’t think I heard so much of that earlier in the pandemic.


----------



## Money172375

The last few days have seen an increase in the number of people I know with covid by two. An old friend invited herself to our place next week......we basically ignored her hoping to say no as the day got closer. She just told us she has covid.....dodged a bullet.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> The last few days have seen an increase in the number of people I know with covid by two. An old friend invited herself to our place next week......we basically ignored her hoping to say no as the day got closer. She just told us she has covid.....dodged a bullet.


That's the thing, you don't really know how large these peoples bubbles are.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, it was really surprising, but there are very few cases, let alone outbreaks in school


 ... I guess where you're located, there aren't enough schools for an outbreak event.

Just a quick search atm on CP24 popped the first page with 3 headlines of "school closures (all over the place plus all 3 levels of elementary, secondary and university level)" in a span of just 1 week due to Covid:

*FIVE TORONTO SCHOOLS TEMPORARILY CLOSED OVER LAST TWO DAYS PENDING COVID-19 INVESTIGATIONS*
Five Toronto schools have been temporarily closed over the last two days pending ongoing COVID-19 investigations, public health officials have confirmed.
Monday, Mar. 29, 2021

*THREE MORE TORONTO SCHOOLS CLOSE DUE TO COVID-19 CASES*
Two North York elementary schools and a Scarborough Catholic school will be closed on Monday due to COVID-19 cases.
Sunday, Mar. 28, 2021

*COVID-19 OUTBREAK AT BROCK UNIVERSITY LINKED TO 'SOCIAL ACTIVITIES OF STUDENTS': OFFICIALS*
An outbreak of COVID-19 has been declared at Brock University and officials say that the social activities of students over the previous week may be the cause.
Friday, Mar. 26, 2021



And elsewhere around the globe, the entire school system closed (even it's 3 weeks and don't doubt this will be reviewed to be extended if the infection rate continues up):

*FRANCE TO CLOSE SCHOOLS, BAN DOMESTIC TRAVEL AS VIRUS SURGES*
French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday announced *a three-week nationwide school closure *and a month-long domestic travel ban, as the rapid spread of the virus ramped up pressure on hospitals.
Wednesday, Mar. 31, 2021


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... I guess where you're located, there aren't enough schools for an outbreak event.
> 
> Just a quick search atm on CP24 popped the first page with 3 headlines of "school closures (all over the place plus all 3 levels of elementary, secondary and university level)" in a span of just 1 week due to Covid:


Well when i say "schools" I am thinking elementary and secondary.
We have had a few outbreaks, but it's not many.
From your article








Five Toronto schools temporarily closed over last two days pending COVID-19 investigations


Five Toronto schools have been temporarily closed over the last two days pending ongoing COVID-19 investigations, public health officials have confirmed.




www.cp24.com





5 schools, and they're only investigating. I'm okay with caution.
For the 2 TDSB schools (out of 600 schools), there were 5 cases.
It doesn't seem like even in the schools with outbreaks that there is a lot of spread, and 5 cases out of 247k students? 
That's statistically way less than the general rate of new COVID19 cases.
You can look at the data yourself for catholic, but from what I've seen, it's similar trends.


Looking at the data, schools are surprisingly not the problem. I don't think anyone expected that.

Universities are different, a lot of that has been traced to living conditions. 
In London we have Western (a big University) and almost all outbreaks are in residences.


School closures are a political decision. Just because France decided something, doesn't mean it was the correct decision. Also France has 2x the per capita rate of COVID deaths to Canada, let alone the significant cultural differences that would necessitate difference measures.

I am okay with investigations (just like investigating AZ vaccine)

However the data is showing that schools, at least here in Ontario, are not the cause of spread. Look at the data yourself, it's really hard to make a data based case to close schools


----------



## Beaver101

^ The evidence is there ... it only takes 1 person (regardless of age) to infect another. 

Not only is this disease so infectious (a given by now) but having "asymptotic" (aka silent) carriers makes it extremely difficult to get a handle of it. Because by the time someone finds out they're infected, everyone else around him/her is infected. 

And who're the asymptotic carriers? Would be kind of late to find out when the infected others are in the ICUs.

As for the on & off with the here and there school closures in (Toronto), that's a patch job. I think Education Minister Lecce should have been fired.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ The evidence is there ... it only takes 1 person (regardless of age) to infect another.
> 
> Not only is this disease so infectious (a given by now) but having "asymptotic" (aka silent) carriers makes it extremely difficult to get a handle of it. Because by the time someone finds out they're infected, everyone else around him/her is infected.
> 
> And who're the asymptotic carriers? Would be kind of late to find out when the infected others are in the ICUs.
> 
> As for the on & off with the here and there school closures in (Toronto), that's a patch job. I think Education Minister Lecce should have been fired.


I completely agree.
So based on the data, we should have kids in class, where the spread is low, instead of ad-hoc arrangements where the spread is high.

I do agree that Lecce was a bit quick to cancel school, but based on the reasonable (yet incorrect) assumption that COVID19 would spread in schools, I wouldn't call for his resignation.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> The last few days have seen an increase in the number of people I know with covid by two. An old friend invited herself to our place next week......we basically ignored her hoping to say no as the day got closer. She just told us she has covid.....dodged a bullet.


Yup avoid all visitors and I think it's good to push back and say: No, sorry, this is not a safe time for visitors.

While the numbers were increasing here in BC, I had two friends trying to invite me over to "hang out". This is exactly how this spreads, and people don't really get the message.

I did tell these friends "no, sorry" and suggested we defer until, well you know, we're not in an exponentially growing public health emergency.



MrMatt said:


> That's the thing, you don't really know how large these peoples bubbles are.


Right. You have to think about where these people are going, and who else they are seeing.


----------



## gibor365

> Where she lives in the US, it's impossible to get a vaccination appointment.


 Curious where exactly she lives?! Maybe she need to go to Florida?! All our friends who is there now, including my age brackets, already fully vaccinated


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> Curious where exactly she lives?! Maybe she need to go to Florida?! All our friends who is there now, including my age brackets, already fully vaccinated


It's possible the giant states have a better coordinated system. For example when I look at CVS pharmacy, Florida _does_ have openings. Yes I can see it's relatively easy to get vaccinated in FL today.

She's in RI on the east coast. This is a tiny state. No spots available, and has been trying for days. The pharmacies don't have any openings either.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I completely agree.
> So based on the data, we should have kids in class, where the spread is low, instead of ad-hoc arrangements where the spread is high.


 ... ad-hoc arrangements will not work, in low or high "spread". A "spread" is a spread whichever way you cut it.



> I do agree that Lecce was a bit quick to cancel school, but based on the reasonable (yet incorrect) assumption that COVID19 would spread in schools, I wouldn't call for his resignation.


 ... the opposite, Lecce is an indecisive, a flippy-flopper who can't make up his mind 'cause he's not competent enough. Before I finished responding, here's the latest

Peel Region schools ordered to switch to remote-only instruction as of tomorrow



> ... The moves comes just days after Education Minister Stephen Lecce told reporters that the Ford government had no plans to close schools amid surging COVID-19 case numbers and would instead have students return to “elevated” infection prevention and control measures and asymptomatic testing following the break. ...


 ... flippy-floppy ... sorry IMO this yo-yo effect is not going to work, especially for such a short duration (2 weeks? on/off/on/off)


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... ad-hoc arrangements will not work, in low or high "spread". A "spread" is a spread whichever way you cut it.
> 
> ... the opposite, Lecce is an indecisive, a flippy-flopper who can't make up his mind 'cause he's not competent enough. Before I finished responding, here's the latest
> 
> Peel Region schools ordered to switch to remote-only instruction as of tomorrow
> 
> ... flippy-floppy ... sorry IMO this yo-yo effect is not going to work, especially for such a short duration (2 weeks? on/off/on/off)


You don't understand what I'm saying.
Parents going to work have to make arrangements for childcare.
They can go to the controlled school environment, or they will send them to someones house who has space.
Just sending to soemones home is the ad-hoc arrrangement we should avoid.

The schools don't seem to be spreading COVID19, the data just isn't there.

I agree a 2 week shutdown is dumb, but take it up with Dr Loh, who issued that order
Lecce didn't flip flop here. The local authorities simply decided to make a different decision.


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> ... ad-hoc arrangements will not work, in low or high "spread". A "spread" is a spread whichever way you cut it.
> 
> ... the opposite, Lecce is an indecisive, a flippy-flopper who can't make up his mind 'cause he's not competent enough. Before I finished responding, here's the latest
> 
> Peel Region schools ordered to switch to remote-only instruction as of tomorrow
> 
> ... flippy-floppy ... sorry IMO this yo-yo effect is not going to work, especially for such a short duration (2 weeks? on/off/on/off)


Just to be clear, it wasn’t Lecce who closed in Peel, it was the local health unit. And there is always the risk, that with schools closed, kids will actually interact more with each other. You know there will be a lot of play dates next week when the whole province is off school.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Just to be clear, it wasn’t Lecce who closed in Peel, it was the local health unit. And there is always the risk, that with schools closed, kids will actually interact more with each other. You know there will be a lot of play dates next week when the whole province is off school.


Absolutely, but hyperpartisans like Beaver just blame Conservatives no matter what. 
They're literally unable to see the data right in front of them.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Absolutely, but hyperpartisans like Beaver just blame Conservatives no matter what.
> They're literally unable to see the data right in front of them.


Conservatives aren't perfect, but they are much less dangerous than Liberals or NDP, who are trying to destroy Western civilization


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> Conservatives aren't perfect, but they are much less dangerous than Liberals or NDP, who are trying to destroy Western civilization


Enough already. They may have the worst policies you’ve seen, but they aren’t trying to destroy anything.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Enough already. They may have the worst policies you’ve seen, but they aren’t trying to destroy anything.


They actually are.
one of their initiatives is named "The Great Reset"









Now is the time for a 'great reset'


The changes we have already seen in response to COVID-19 prove that a reset of our economic model is possible. Professor Klaus Schwab outlines how to achieve it.




www.weforum.org





The Great Reset agenda would have three main components.* The first would steer the market toward fairer outcomes. 
Moreover, governments should implement long-overdue reforms that promote more equitable outcomes.*

The more extreme elements are pretty clear, they want to dismantle capitalism and replace it with something more "fair".
I don't know what is more fair than letting a person be the primary beneficiary of their own labours.


Really the idea that if you make something, you own it seems fair.
The idea these wackos have that if you work and make something, others should be able to simply take it seems unfair.

Their definition of fair is much more in line with communism, where the elites live in luxury, and the people live in poverty.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> They actually are.
> one of their initiatives is named "The Great Reset"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Now is the time for a 'great reset'
> 
> 
> The changes we have already seen in response to COVID-19 prove that a reset of our economic model is possible. Professor Klaus Schwab outlines how to achieve it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.weforum.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Great Reset agenda would have three main components.* The first would steer the market toward fairer outcomes.
> Moreover, governments should implement long-overdue reforms that promote more equitable outcomes.*
> 
> The more extreme elements are pretty clear, they want to dismantle capitalism and replace it with something more "fair".
> I don't know what is more fair than letting a person be the primary beneficiary of their own labours.
> 
> 
> Really the idea that if you make something, you own it seems fair.
> The idea these wackos have that if you work and make something, others should be able to simply take it seems unfair.
> 
> Their definition of fair is much more in line with communism, where the elites live in luxury, and the people live in poverty.


*The Great Reset - *Matt, you took words out of my mouth*! 

and I cannot say it better than Tucker Carson:*
Back in November, Justin Trudeau admitted what's going on. It’s not about stopping the coronavirus and saving lives. No. *This pandemic, he said, is an opportunity to permanently change Western civilization:*

_TRUDEAU: This pandemic has provided an opportunity for a reset. This is our chance to accelerate our pre-pandemic efforts to reimagine economic systems that actual address global challenges like extreme poverty, inequality, and climate change._

We don’t want to give Justin Trudeau too much credit. He may be sinister, but he’s not smart. He didn't think that phrase up. He took it from his role models in this country. At a forum hosted by the World Economic Forum in mid-November, John Kerry -- our new climate czar -- laid it out.

"Yes, it [the Great Reset] will happen," Kerry said, "and I think it will happen with greater speed and with greater intensity than a lot of people might imagine. In effect, the citizens of the United States have just done a Great Reset. We’ve done a Great Reset. And it was a record level of voting. We’re at the dawn of an extremely exciting time."


----------



## gibor365

> Enough already. They may have the worst policies you’ve seen, but they aren’t trying to destroy anything.


It's not me, but Trudeau said himself (see post above)


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> You don't understand what I'm saying.
> Parents going to work have to make arrangements for childcare.


 ... don't you think the parents should have this figured out by now? Or Lecce telling the parents to figure it ... by now, a year + in the pandemic. These scenes are like coming out of a movie, being played over and over again. Only we're living in this movie.



> They can go to the controlled school environment, or they will send them to someones house who has space.


 ... right, the school would be a nice baby-sitting center, no doubt.



> Just sending to soemones home is the ad-hoc arrrangement we should avoid.


 ... why send to someone else's home when there is "home"? Are your kids being sent to someone else's home to be looked after currently? And please spare the "both parents" working ... see above too.



> The schools don't seem to be spreading COVID19, the data just isn't there.


 ... no, the schools are fine ... it's the living beings in them that are spreading them. And before you go "the data just isnt' there (likely in London, Ontario)" ... here's the latest update (for Toronto):

More than 20 Toronto schools being closed due to COVID-19



> Last Updated Tuesday, April 6, 2021 7:26AM EDT
> More than 20 Toronto schools are being closed due to COVD-19 investigations as the city's public health unit defends their decision to keep facilities open to in-person learning.
> 
> Toronto Public Health and various school boards confirmed the closures Monday night
> 
> “Today, Toronto Public Health (TPH) has recommended the temporary dismissal of all school cohorts for the following schools as a result of ongoing COVID-19 investigations,” Toronto Public Health said in a statement to CP24.


 .. and exactly what "data" presumably scientific ones you need to see to convince you the spread remains in the schools?



> I agree a 2 week shutdown is dumb, but take it up with Dr Loh, who issued that order
> Lecce didn't flip flop here. The local authorities simply decided to make a different decision.


 ... no, apparently Lecce doesn't listen to anyone else when he can't make up his mind. Afterall he's Ontario's Education Minister, doing what? IDK.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Absolutely, but hyperpartisans like Beaver just blame Conservatives no matter what.
> They're literally unable to see the data right in front of them.


 ... why do you always need to pull politics in? Especially this is a public health matter? 

Don't you think it's oxymoron(ic) that you like to see "data", like "hard-evidence" when you love to pull politics into the topic. Reminder: data=science does NOT mix with politics. 

And you can spin it anyway you want like I'm not able to see "your" version of "data" to be "convincing" when it's all over a reputable news channel of what is happening in the "real" world, not on this forum's "postings" on the "need for data." ... LMAO.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... why do you always need to pull politics in? Especially this is a public health matter?


You brought politics into it when you blamed Lecce for the decisions of the Peel region Chief Medical officer


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> More than 20 Toronto schools being closed due to COVID-19
> 
> .. and exactly what "data" presumably scientific ones you need to see to convince you the spread remains in the schools?


Data showing that COVID19 is being transmitted in schools.
Most schools are only finding a handful of cases, many times only 1 or 2 cases in the whole school. Which should be expected based on the positivity rate in the community.

If the schools were finding 2 or 3 kids from the same classroom, that would suggest there might be in school spread. But that simply isn't happening.

I'll ask you, what data would suggest to you that in COVID19 isn't likely being spread in schools?


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> You brought politics into it when you blamed Lecce for the decisions of the Peel region Chief Medical officer


 .. repeating my question: what is Lecce's job exactly? Plus did I blame Ford for anything, he is considered a Conservative also, no?


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Data showing that COVID19 is being transmitted in schools.
> Most schools are only finding a handful of cases, many times only 1 or 2 cases in the whole school. Which should be expected based on the positivity rate in the community.
> 
> If the schools were finding 2 or 3 kids from the same classroom, that would suggest there might be in school spread. But that simply isn't happening.
> 
> *I'll ask you, what data would suggest to you that in COVID19 isn't likely being spread in schools?*


 ...if you think Covid is being spread in school, then we're on the same page. But I don't think you're trying to say that previously. As said, a spread is a spread, whichever way you cut it. All it takes is 1 kid to infect another kid who then goes onto infecting everybody else, including taking the infection home.

Here's a latest:

Vaughan father dies, wife now struggles to walk after entire family got infected with COVID-19



> ... Barmash-Viater said her parents were both healthy and didn’t have pre-existing medical conditions. *She said that the family does not know where they contracted COVID-19.*
> 
> "These are two active people in their sixties," she said. "It never, ever should have happened and I am so angry that it did."
> 
> Barmash-Viater, who is 40 years old, said that COVID-19 has left her with nerve damage that she thinks will be permanent. *Her two children all had mild symptoms.*


 ... maybe it's a coincidence, maybe not ...definitely not speculation.


----------



## Plugging Along

Beaver101 said:


> ...if you think Covid is being spread in school, then we're on the same page. But I don't think you're trying to say that previously. As said, a spread is a spread, whichever way you cut it. All it takes is 1 kid to infect another kid who then goes onto infecting everybody else, including taking the infection home.
> 
> Here's a latest:
> 
> Vaughan father dies, wife now struggles to walk after entire family got infected with COVID-19
> 
> ... maybe it's a coincidence, maybe not ...definitely not speculation.


I generally out of political arguments. I am asking for clarification. I read the article, and no where does it say the kids where the ones that brought it home. They had mild symptoms, but that is already know that kids will have mild symptoms compared to adults. Everything else is speculation. In my kids school, they just had their second case for the year. The kids have had no symptoms, and it was brought from the parents who infected the kids. There has been no further spread (knock on wood, as it's been 10 days since the school was notified). I can say since there were NO other cases in the class or in the school whatever so ever, it's not starting from the kids in school. I am not saying kids cannot spread it, but many of the cases come from OUTSIDE of the school, into the schools. The schools in my area are doing a pretty good job containing it. The cases have been spread with the kids due to kids having sleep overs and gatherings in each others homes, large parties, or from someone in their home. So the same reasons as young adults.

It's actually very limited in the spread IN school, it's the spread outside of school that is the bigger concern.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> .. repeating my question: what is Lecce's job exactly? Plus did I blame Ford for anything, he is considered a Conservative also, no?


You said Lecce is flip flopping, referencing the Peel region school closures.
Lecce didn't flip flop.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ...if you think Covid is being spread in school, then we're on the same page. But I don't think you're trying to say that previously. As said, a spread is a spread, whichever way you cut it. All it takes is 1 kid to infect another kid who then goes onto infecting everybody else, including taking the infection home.
> 
> Here's a latest:
> 
> Vaughan father dies, wife now struggles to walk after entire family got infected with COVID-19
> 
> ... maybe it's a coincidence, maybe not ...definitely not speculation.


I don't think it's being spread in schools, because the data doesn't show that.
They just announce 14 cases in 11 schools here. that means at most only 3 schools had more than 1 case. Which meanst at least 8 of the 11 schools had only 1 case.

If schools are spreading, why aren't we seeing many outbreaks at schools?

What data would suggest (not convince), but suggest that it is possible the spread at school isn't very high?
With the strong of schools reporting COVID only reporting a single case, it really doesn't look like it's running rampant in schools.

I'm not saying it isn't being spread in schools, I am saying that it looks like there is very little spread in schools.

I personally know 2 kids who had COVID19 in their classrooms, neither class had a second child catch COVID.
In fact between those 2 schools only 3 kids had COVID, and 2 were brothers.


----------



## Money172375

In addition to talking to teachers, they should talk to students. My kids say teachers are rarely wearing masks properly, and a few of them seem to have other have commitments......checking their phones constantly, selling items on kijiji.


----------



## Money172375

Local news here about asymptomatic testing in schools. Discovered one case.









First COVID-19 case found in Simcoe County schools through asymptomatic testing


There have been 1,383 tests completed so far through the clinics since they began last month




www.orilliamatters.com


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Local news here about asymptomatic testing in schools. Discovered one case.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> First COVID-19 case found in Simcoe County schools through asymptomatic testing
> 
> 
> There have been 1,383 tests completed so far through the clinics since they began last month
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.orilliamatters.com


One case, out of 133 tests. 0.072% and that was an asymptomatic case
They have 475 cases, out of a population of 540 000, that's 0.088%, and that's all symptomatic cases that went and got tested.




__





COVID-19






www.simcoemuskokahealthstats.org








__





Population






www.simcoemuskokahealthstats.org





So it looks like the number of cases in the schools in that health unit is LOWER than the number of cases in the general population.
That's not even considering that in the general population they aren't likely catching as many asymptomatic cases.

There could be a lot of reasons, but it is obvious that Schools are simply not hotbeds of COVID transmission.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> You said Lecce is flip flopping, referencing the Peel region school closures.
> Lecce didn't flip flop.


 ... you still haven't answered the question: what is Lecce's job exactly? This is the 3rd time being asked so don't deflect and dance around it. Plus playing the political game.

And yes, he's a flip-flopper ... since last year. If you don't like that labelling, how does "incompetent" sound. Better?


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> One case, out of 133 tests. 0.072% and that was an asymptomatic case
> They have 475 cases, out of a population of 540 000, that's 0.088%, and that's all symptomatic cases that went and got tested.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.simcoemuskokahealthstats.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Population
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.simcoemuskokahealthstats.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So it looks like the number of cases in the schools in that health unit is LOWER than the number of cases in the general population.
> That's not even considering that in the general population they aren't likely catching as many asymptomatic cases.
> 
> There could be a lot of reasons, *but it is obvious that Schools are simply not hotbeds of COVID transmission.*


 ... you can spin as long as a post you want with all the stats, data, rah, rah, rah.

Re-iterating for the umpteenth time ... all it takes is 1 person to infect another. No "hotbed" is needed for Covid "transmission=infection". 

Repeat for the umpteenth time, asymptotic transmission is next to impossible to trace. And please don't tell me that doesn't exist in schools? Now, is it that difficult to understand why schools need to close down again?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... you still haven't answered the question: what is Lecce's job exactly? This is the 3rd time being asked so don't deflect and dance around it. Plus playing the political game.
> 
> And yes, he's a flip-flopper ... since last year. If you don't like that labelling, how does "incompetent" sound. Better?





Beaver101 said:


> ... you can spin as long as a post you want with all the stats, data, rah, rah, rah.
> 
> Re-iterating for the umpteenth time ... all it takes is 1 person to infect another. No "hotbed" is needed for Covid "transmission=infection".
> 
> Repeat for the umpteenth time, asymptotic transmission is next to impossible to trace. And please don't tell me that doesn't exist in schools? Now, is it that difficult to understand why schools need to close down again?


Lecce is the minster of education.

I don't think he's flip flopped much, I think as things changed he has acted appropriately. Where is the flip flop you're talking about?

I'm not saying that asymptomatic spread doesn't exist, I fully acknowledge it.
In fact I literally referenced an asymptomatic study they just did in SimcoeMuskoka, which found 1 case of asymptomatic COVID19.
The data clearly shows that kids in school are much less likely to have COVID19 than other members of the general population.

Since schools aren't spreading COVID19 very much, why close them?

Well stats and data are how science works. If you're rejecting al the data, you're just going with whatever feels right to you, which is no way to run the government.


----------



## sags

My wife tells me that Western University is sending the students home after outbreaks at 9 different student residences.

She didn't know if the kids are required to leave but there will only be "online" learning for the rest of the year.

In other local news, schools are finding infections, hospitals are being infected, and ICU rooms are filling up. The healthcare workers are exhausted. They have been at this for over a year. The LTC home workers are exhausted and the first line responders are exhausted.

The last thing they need is another round of waves of infection.

But, the scientists say the new Brazil virus is spreadling quickly and becoming the dominant virus. It is more infectious and deadly, especially to young adults aged 18-22 for some unknown reason.

I also heard the vaccines aren't protecting people against the Brazil variant.

If that isn't bad enough news, the double mutation found in India has now landed in California.

We are not anywhere near the time for opening up the economy or holding large gatherings.

Some say we are only at the beginning of another pandemic.

If this virus developed naturally it certainly does a good job of mutating faster than we can address it. Personally, I think it was created in a lab to do just what it is doing.

But....who is ever going to admit they helped create or funded development of this monster ?


----------



## sags

Viruses aren't supposed to mutate so much every few months, and now there is a "double mutation" ?

I heard one scientist say he has never seen a virus mutate so much so quickly as this one is doing.

We are slowly losing the battle against the virus. In the end, everything will be shut down tight.

It will be the only way to stop the spread. The scientists are already predicting it will happen.

Unfortunately people will likely keep dying before the authorities do what needs to be done.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> My wife tells me that Western University is sending the students home after outbreaks at 9 different student residences.
> 
> She didn't know if the kids are required to leave but there will only be "online" learning for the rest of the year.
> 
> In other local news, schools are finding infections, hospitals are being infected, and ICU rooms are filling up. The healthcare workers are exhausted. They have been at this for over a year. The LTC home workers are exhausted and the first line responders are exhausted.
> 
> The last thing they need is another round of waves of infection.
> 
> But, the scientists say the new Brazil virus is spreadling quickly and becoming the dominant virus. It is more infectious and deadly, especially to young adults aged 18-22 for some unknown reason.
> 
> I also heard the vaccines aren't protecting people against the Brazil variant.
> 
> If that isn't bad enough news, the double mutation found in India has now landed in California.
> 
> We are not anywhere near the time for opening up the economy or holding large gatherings.
> 
> Some say we are only at the beginning of another pandemic.
> 
> If this virus developed naturally it certainly does a good job of mutating faster than we can address it. Personally, I think it was created in a lab to do just what it is doing.
> 
> But....who is ever going to admit they helped create or funded development of this monster ?


School ends in one week for universities. Write your exam, go home.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Viruses aren't supposed to mutate so much every few months, and now there is a "double mutation" ?


Sure they do, Coronaviruses normally mutate quite fast. We're actually quite fortunate that COVID19 is mutating relatively slowly.



> I heard one scientist say he has never seen a virus mutate so much so quickly as this one is doing.


What kind of scientist? Clearly one that isn't anything close to biology.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> My wife tells me that Western University is sending the students home after outbreaks at 9 different student residences.
> 
> She didn't know if the kids are required to leave but there will only be "online" learning for the rest of the year.


Our daughter is in Western , she got Covid UK variant in residence and 5 days ago got released from quarantine hotel ... Just talked to her yesterday, she would tell me if " the kids are required to leave ", apparently they don't
And "online" learning was there from the beginning of the year


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Sure they do, Coronaviruses normally mutate quite fast. We're actually quite fortunate that COVID19 is mutating relatively slowly.
> 
> What kind of scientist? Clearly one that isn't anything close to biology.


Actually, I've read that scientists were telling that we're lucky that Covid mutates slow


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Actually, I've read that scientists were telling that we're lucky that Covid mutates slow


That's literally what I said, and you even quoted it.
"We're actually quite fortunate that COVID19 is mutating relatively slowly."


----------



## sags

I guess it is about that time when a lot of the undergraduate students are close to leaving Western for the summer, but there are some who stay and participate in lab work, research work, or work shifts in the hospital as part of their course work.

Maybe they are just 4th year and post graduates staying around. I doubt the University will boot them out, but I wonder if the school closes down all their activities, food courts and cafeteria. It is a big school campus with lots of buildings and maintenance and other staff required to keep it functioning.


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> ... Viruses aren't supposed to mutate so much every few months, and now there is a "double mutation" ?
> I heard one scientist say he has never seen a virus mutate so much so quickly as this one is doing ...


Odd as there are lots of articles saying the opposite.

Jul 2020 ... "More than 6 months into the pandemic, the virus’ potential to evolve in a nastier direction—or, if we’re lucky, become more benign—is unclear. In part that’s because it changes more slowly than most other viruses, giving virologists fewer mutations to study."








The pandemic virus is slowly mutating. But is it getting more dangerous?


Determining whether genetic changes have increased transmission of COVID-19 is surprisingly hard




www.sciencemag.org






Feb 2021 ... "But SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses are an exception to the rule. They mutate at least 4 times more slowly than influenza."








How the coronavirus mutates and what this means for the future of COVID-19


Occasionally, a mutation will give the virus a better chance of surviving and reproducing itself, and will result in a new population (known as a new lineage)




theconversation.com





Mar 2021 ... "Mutation rates are typically higher in RNA viruses than they are in DNA viruses.
Two RNA viruses with high mutation rates that you may have heard of are human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and influenza (flu).

SARS-CoV-2 is also an RNA virus, but it generally mutates more slowly than other RNA viruses."








How Many Strains of the Coronavirus Are There? About New Variants


Several new strains of the coronavirus have been identified. These variants may spread faster and some may also impact immunity and vaccine effectiveness.




www.healthline.com






I am curious as to what the scientist's qualifications were when there are so many others, some of whom have studied mutation rates for decades saying the opposite.


Cheers


*PS*
The BBC had a scientist who fell in love with studying the coronavirus thirty years ago so that she focused on it. She was another April 2020 source saying she figured a vaccine was likely, in part due to how slowly SARS-CoV-2 mutates.


----------



## Spudd

gibor365 said:


> Our daughter is in Western , she got Covid UK variant in residence and 5 days ago got released from quarantine hotel ... Just talked to her yesterday, she would tell me if " the kids are required to leave ", apparently they don't
> And "online" learning was there from the beginning of the year


They aren't required but they are encouraged to leave.








Western News - Variants of concern, rising COVID cases prompt Western to take further action


Most classes and exams move online, students encouraged to leave residence.




news.westernu.ca


----------



## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> I am curious as to what the scientist's qualifications were when there are so many others, some of whom have studied mutation rates for decades saying the opposite.


sags has a habit of posting unsubstantiated claims.


----------



## gibor365

Spudd said:


> They aren't required but they are encouraged to leave.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Western News - Variants of concern, rising COVID cases prompt Western to take further action
> 
> 
> Most classes and exams move online, students encouraged to leave residence.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.westernu.ca


So far, our daughter is not planning to come home... She already recovered from Covid . She will come after exams as she should start co-op


----------



## gibor365

Just checked on official Peel website cases by city... Mississauga has 22% more population than Brampton and almost twice less cases ! Curious why?! Demographics?!


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> Just checked on official Peel website cases by city... Mississauga has 22% more population than Brampton and almost twice less cases ! Curious why?! Demographics?!


Multi-generational homes, factory workers.


----------



## like_to_retire

CDC says:

Travelers should avoid all travel to Canada.

ltr


----------



## Money172375

like_to_retire said:


> CDC says:
> 
> Travelers should avoid all travel to Canada.
> 
> ltr


I guess this is meaningless since it‘s not illegal.


----------



## like_to_retire

Money172375 said:


> I guess this is meaningless since it‘s not illegal.


I generally think people pay attention to the CDC when they issue an advisory not to travel to certain countries. It's a pretty bad situation when that occurs. Maybe there's a war, or high risk of kidnapping, or a country that can't seem to vaccinate its population against a pandemic.

When the CDC issues an advisory such as this, for me, it's somewhat embarrassing and reveals how inept our federal government is........... but you're concerned about the legality.

ltr


----------



## Money172375

I just found it amusing that Canada has had a travel advisory for the whole planet And yet people still complain they’re forced to quarantine upon arrival.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> I just found it amusing that Canada has had a travel advisory for the whole planet And yet people still complain they’re forced to quarantine upon arrival.


Canada is a very weird country


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> I generally think people pay attention to the CDC when they issue an advisory not to travel to certain countries. It's a pretty bad situation when that occurs. Maybe there's a war, or high risk of kidnapping, or a country that can't seem to vaccinate its population against a pandemic.
> 
> When the CDC issues an advisory such as this, for me, it's somewhat embarrassing and reveals how inept our federal government is........... but you're concerned about the legality.
> 
> ltr


To be fair, the CDC can't really issue a travel advisory to the US


----------



## sags

Eclectic12 said:


> Odd as there are lots of articles saying the opposite.
> 
> Jul 2020 ... "More than 6 months into the pandemic, the virus’ potential to evolve in a nastier direction—or, if we’re lucky, become more benign—is unclear. In part that’s because it changes more slowly than most other viruses, giving virologists fewer mutations to study."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The pandemic virus is slowly mutating. But is it getting more dangerous?
> 
> 
> Determining whether genetic changes have increased transmission of COVID-19 is surprisingly hard
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.sciencemag.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Feb 2021 ... "But SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses are an exception to the rule. They mutate at least 4 times more slowly than influenza."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How the coronavirus mutates and what this means for the future of COVID-19
> 
> 
> Occasionally, a mutation will give the virus a better chance of surviving and reproducing itself, and will result in a new population (known as a new lineage)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mar 2021 ... "Mutation rates are typically higher in RNA viruses than they are in DNA viruses.
> Two RNA viruses with high mutation rates that you may have heard of are human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and influenza (flu).
> 
> SARS-CoV-2 is also an RNA virus, but it generally mutates more slowly than other RNA viruses."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Many Strains of the Coronavirus Are There? About New Variants
> 
> 
> Several new strains of the coronavirus have been identified. These variants may spread faster and some may also impact immunity and vaccine effectiveness.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.healthline.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am curious as to what the scientist's qualifications were when there are so many others, some of whom have studied mutation rates for decades saying the opposite.
> 
> 
> Cheers
> 
> 
> *PS*
> The BBC had a scientist who fell in love with studying the coronavirus thirty years ago so that she focused on it. She was another April 2020 source saying she figured a vaccine was likely, in part due to how slowly SARS-CoV-2 mutates.


Clearly the scientists you quoted were wrong as the real life results are pretty obvious.

The variants have become the dominant strain and there are many mutations already.

The latest is a "double mutation" that was discovered in India and is now in California.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Clearly the scientists you quoted were wrong as the real life results are pretty obvious.
> 
> The variants have become the dominant strain and there are many mutations already.
> 
> The latest is a "double mutation" that was discovered in India and is now in California.


Yes, it's mutating, and the variants will become the dominant strains, that's how evolution works.
We knew this, we just got really lucky that COVID mutates relatively slowly for a Coronavirus.


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> Clearly the scientists you quoted were wrong as the real life results are pretty obvious.
> The variants have become the dominant strain and there are many mutations already ...


This confirms that mutation is happening but says nothing about how fast mutations are being spun off.

I guess you didn't notice that mutations and variants were studied last year?
There's D614G from Feb 2020 that took over as the main strain by June 2020 globally.
August 2020 had the "Cluster 5" variant that infected a mink farm then moved to humans.

If it is so obvious that covid is mutating faster than any other virus is "supposed to" in real life then please provide what should be easy to find references.
I have spent enough time finding the opposite.


Cheers

*PS*
Can it get anymore real life than these scientists analysing samples taken from people to see if it matches or is different than what is on record?


----------



## Bananatron

like_to_retire said:


> CDC says:
> 
> Travelers should avoid all travel to Canada.
> 
> ltr


Looks like they have that advisory for most countries outside of the island nations that were able to effectively isolate themselves.


----------



## Beaver101

like_to_retire said:


> CDC says:
> 
> Travelers should avoid all travel to Canada.
> 
> ltr


 ... good.

As much as we love the greenbacks, we don't need infectious travellers. And neither do they need infectious Canadians. 

So as Premier (Ontario) Ford says "Stay Home!!!!" Most sensible.


----------



## Spudd

like_to_retire said:


> CDC says:
> 
> Travelers should avoid all travel to Canada.
> 
> ltr


Have you looked at their list? Firstly, they issued this a long time ago, it wasn't like it was last week. Secondly, the list of countries they recommend avoiding due to covid is HUGE. It is by far the largest category.


----------



## like_to_retire

Spudd said:


> Have you looked at their list? Firstly, they issued this a long time ago, it wasn't like it was last week. Secondly, the list of countries they recommend avoiding due to covid is HUGE. It is by far the largest category.


Yeah, I don't really care about the other countries on their advisory, but I saw a few stories yesterday with this as the headline including NBC or this article yesterday that said specifically not to fly into Pearson. I checked at CDC to be sure and I saw it as the number one listed article.

ltr


----------



## Spudd

like_to_retire said:


> Yeah, I don't really care about the other countries on their advisory, but I saw a few stories yesterday with this as the headline including NBC or this article yesterday that said specifically not to fly into Pearson. I checked at CDC to be sure and I saw it as the number one listed article.
> 
> ltr


It's making the rounds right now as an anti-Liberals talking point. That doesn't make it valid. 

The link you provided at CDC is the link to their advisory about Canada, so of course the Canada advisory is the top thing on that page. Here's the next level up in their directory structure:








COVID-19 and Travel


CDC travel recommendations during the COVID-19 pandemic.




wwwnc.cdc.gov





United Kingdom, Switzerland, Netherlands, and many other first-world countries are on the list.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> sags has a habit of posting unsubstantiated claims.


The faster mutations of this virus was noted already back in January 2021.

_Preliminary analyses suggest these new variants are more likely to spread faster among people than other circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains. South Africa’s genomic scientists have found the new strain there can infect human cells more efficiently and is about 50% more transmissible than earlier versions. The variant in the U.K. has been found to be 56% to 70% more transmissible. *It has acquired 17 mutations compared to its most recent ancestor -- a faster rate of change than scientists typically observe. 



https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-themutated-coronavirus-variants-are-soworrisome/2021/01/21/2b5f7abe-5bb2-11eb-a849-6f9423a75ffd_story.html


*_


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The faster mutations of this virus was noted already back in January 2021.
> 
> _Preliminary analyses suggest these new variants are more likely to spread faster among people than other circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains. South Africa’s genomic scientists have found the new strain there can infect human cells more efficiently and is about 50% more transmissible than earlier versions. The variant in the U.K. has been found to be 56% to 70% more transmissible. *It has acquired 17 mutations compared to its most recent ancestor -- a faster rate of change than scientists typically observe.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-themutated-coronavirus-variants-are-soworrisome/2021/01/21/2b5f7abe-5bb2-11eb-a849-6f9423a75ffd_story.html
> 
> 
> *_


My point stands, your initial claim wasn't substantiated at the time.
We also don't know what "faster rate of change than scientists typically observe".
Are these Coronavirus experts, flu experts, epidemiologists, geologists?
We do know the relatively slow mutations of COVID19 have likley been quite beneficial.


----------



## Bananatron

Canada's 18+ population is ~30.0 million.
Of those 30 million, about 6.5 million have received at least one dose. That leaves 23.5 million to be vaccinated (theoretically).

Today, 250,000 doses were administered. I have no doubts we are just getting started, but even if we could only maintain that pace, the entire country would have one dose in 94 days, or by July 11, 2021.

We are almost there folks, hang on.


----------



## sags

Increasing numbers of those 250,000 daily vaccinations would be for second doses due.

Is the plan to administer only 1 dose to everyone and then think about the second dose ?


----------



## MrMatt

Bananatron said:


> Canada's 18+ population is ~30.0 million.
> Of those 30 million, about 6.5 million have received at least one dose. That leaves 23.5 million to be vaccinated (theoretically).
> 
> Today, 250,000 doses were administered. I have no doubts we are just getting started, but even if we could only maintain that pace, the entire country would have one dose in 94 days, or by July 11, 2021.
> 
> We are almost there folks, hang on.


No that leaves approximately 30 million to be vaccinated


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> Increasing numbers of those 250,000 daily vaccinations would be for second doses due.
> 
> Is the plan to administer only 1 dose to everyone and then think about the second dose ?


There will likely be some overlap....people getting their second dose while people are still receiving their first.

btw. My appeal to get my mom who is awaiting chemo, a second dose within 3-4 was denied, even though I feel she belongs in one of the exemption groups.


----------



## zinfit

Money172375 said:


> There will likely be some overlap....people getting their second dose while people are still receiving their first.
> 
> btw. My appeal to get my mom who is awaiting chemo, a second dose within 3-4 was denied, even though I feel she belongs in one of the exemption groups.


Come June and July we should have a over supply of f vaccines. .The US should be finished and they can produce 5 million doses per day.


----------



## Bananatron

MrMatt said:


> No that leaves approximately 30 million to be vaccinated


For all intents and purposes, we are done vaccinating when all eligible people have been vaccinated. When one is approved for the kids we can track that progress, although I think we'll be close to normal by then.


----------



## like_to_retire

U.S. CDC issues 'very high' warning against all travel to Canada.

_"The United States CDC issued a Level 4 or “very high” warning against all travel to Canada, stating: "Because of the current situation in Canada even fully vaccinated travellers may be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants."_

ltr


----------



## zinfit

like_to_retire said:


> U.S. CDC issues 'very high' warning against all travel to Canada.
> 
> _"The United States CDC issued a Level 4 or “very high” warning against all travel to Canada, stating: "Because of the current situation in Canada even fully vaccinated travellers may be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants."_
> 
> ltr


not very good news . I can see 6 or 8 weeks of lockdowns and stay at home mandates. I guess we can only hope that situation goes the other way once the warmer weather shows up.


----------



## MrMatt

Bananatron said:


> For all intents and purposes, we are done vaccinating when all eligible people have been vaccinated. When one is approved for the kids we can track that progress, although I think we'll be close to normal by then.


My point is that only giving half of a 2 dose vaccination isn't a vaccination.
We've basically vaccinated only a few hundred thousand people, and we don't even have a plan to vaccinate people now.
We're not even trying to do it properly.

Back to not counting kids as people, yes I know they can't vote, but as much as they're not a key voting block, they are people.

"All eligible people" is a BS limitation.
Back in Jan 2020, and March, and June and August we had "vaccinated all eligible people".
We're not ALL vaccinated, until we are ALL vaccinated.

For all intents and purposes, saying "all" when you don't mean "all" is lying.


----------



## Bananatron

MrMatt said:


> My point is that only giving half of a 2 dose vaccination isn't a vaccination.
> We've basically vaccinated only a few hundred thousand people, and we don't even have a plan to vaccinate people now.
> We're not even trying to do it properly.
> 
> Back to not counting kids as people, yes I know they can't vote, but as much as they're not a key voting block, they are people.
> 
> "All eligible people" is a BS limitation.
> Back in Jan 2020, and March, and June and August we had "vaccinated all eligible people".
> We're not ALL vaccinated, until we are ALL vaccinated.
> 
> For all intents and purposes, saying "all" when you don't mean "all" is lying.


You're being rather confrontational over semantics. We can disagree about a subject in another thread and still be civil when we discuss a different subject, yes?

What I had meant by vaccinating was quite clearly getting everyone their first shot, which appears to give adequate protection against serious outcomes (hospitalizations and death).

I didn't count the under 18 population not because I don't think that they count as people, but rather that they are simply ineligible to be vaccinated. 

We will be done with the pandemic when all eligible people have received their first dose. We will be done vaccinating when every person has received their second. 

I care about the first point a whole lot more than the second. The second won't be an issue.


----------



## like_to_retire

Bananatron said:


> What I had meant by vaccinating was quite clearly getting everyone their first shot, which appears to give adequate protection against serious outcomes (hospitalizations and death).


And yet we have no data on how long that _"adequate protection" _lasts, yet Canada decides to go rogue and extend the first and second dose interval to 4 months. So it's basically an experiment. A population experiment. Don't the people in charge know how to read the instructions on a medicine bottle?

ltr


----------



## Bananatron

like_to_retire said:


> And yet we have no data on how long that _"adequate protection" _lasts, yet Canada decides to go rogue and extend the first and second dose interval to 4 months. So it's basically an experiment. A population experiment. Don't the people in charge know how to read the instructions on a medicine bottle?
> 
> ltr


Given the circumstances, I'm glad we're participating in this "experiment" which will likely save thousands of lives.


----------



## like_to_retire

Bananatron said:


> I'm glad we're participating in this "experiment" which will likely save thousands of lives.


Or not. Where's your data, or is it just a gut feeling you're subjecting a population of seniors to.

ltr


----------



## Bananatron

like_to_retire said:


> Or not. Where's your data, or is it just a gut feeling you're subjecting a population of seniors to.
> 
> ltr


Why are you talking to me as if I'm the one making the decisions?

Where is the data saying these new vaccines have no long term side effects? Yet we're still sticking them in people's arms all over the world. These vaccines in general are a huge population experiment. We all accept that. 

As far as I know, the decision to spread the doses out was made on more than a gut feeling. I'm not sure of the data used nor do I really care. If the professionals feel that it's safe to do then it's likely safe to do. I really have no use for people who use this pandemic to grind their political axe, and I say this as someone who really isn't a fan of Trudeau.


----------



## MrMatt

Bananatron said:


> You're being rather confrontational over semantics.


No, I'm being confrontational about the core issue.



> We can disagree about a subject in another thread and still be civil when we discuss a different subject, yes?


Of course



> What I had meant by vaccinating was quite clearly getting everyone their first shot, which appears to give adequate protection against serious outcomes (hospitalizations and death).


I know that is what you meant.
Do you have any source for your claim of "adequate protection" from a single dose.
My understanding is that a single dose is not adequate, which is why it is a 2 dose regimen.



> I didn't count the under 18 population not because I don't think that they count as people, but rather that they are simply ineligible to be vaccinated.


That's fine, you can think that.
But I think that's at best a politically convenient definition of "everyone".
At worst it's, dismissive and dehumanizing.

I'm over 18, and I'm simply ineligible to be vaccinated, (geographic discrimination) does that mean I don't count either?

Yes I'm overly sensitive to even the suggestion that kids aren't people.
When some are claiming kids aren't people, I'm PROUD to be on the opposite side of that one.



> We will be done with the pandemic when all eligible people have received their first dose.


Please cite a reference for this claim.



> We will be done vaccinating when every person has received their second.


Not by your constantly changing definition of "every person".


My "confrontational" attitude is basically a response to people making unsubstantiated false claims, that they know are false.
Then when they're called on it, they double down and make up new definitions of words to support their claim.


----------



## Bananatron

MrMatt said:


> No, I'm being confrontational about the core issue.
> 
> 
> Of course
> 
> 
> I know that is what you meant.
> Do you have any source for your claim of "adequate protection" from a single dose.
> My understanding is that a single dose is not adequate, which is why it is a 2 dose regimen.


I don't have a source, nor do I care to look one up for you. The experts of our nation have made the decision to go this direction, they believe the short term protection is adequate. The second dose is for longer term protection. Who am I to question people that have spent their whole lives in this field of study?





MrMatt said:


> I'm over 18, and I'm simply ineligible to be vaccinated, (geographic discrimination) does that mean I don't count either?


 Yes, thats right, when we are counting eligible people to be vaccinated, we don't count ineligible people. That doesn't mean that you don't "count" in the literal sense, but we both know you already knew that.




MrMatt said:


> Yes I'm overly sensitive to even the suggestion that kids aren't people.
> When some are claiming kids aren't people, I'm PROUD to be on the opposite side of that one.


Great. No one in this thread has suggested that kids aren't people.




MrMatt said:


> Please cite a reference for this claim.
> 
> 
> Not by your constantly changing definition of "every person".
> 
> 
> My "confrontational" attitude is basically a response to people making unsubstantiated false claims, that they know are false.
> Then when they're called on it, they double down and make up new definitions of words to support their claim.


You're being pedantic and childish. We will chat again in July to see how my "unsubstantiated claims" work out.

No need to reply.


----------



## MrMatt

Bananatron said:


> I don't have a source, nor do I care to look one up for you. The experts of our nation have made the decision to go this direction, they believe the short term protection is adequate. The second dose is for longer term protection. Who am I to question people that have spent their whole lives in this field of study?


The politicians have decided to go this direction.
Experts, including the people who developed the vaccines, disagree.

As citizens of a democracy, it's our right and obligation to question their choices.



> Yes, thats right, when we are counting eligible people to be vaccinated, we don't count ineligible people. That doesn't mean that you don't "count" in the literal sense, but we both know you already knew that.


I think that definition of "all people" is deeply flawed, and doesn't present a realistic view of the situation. which is one of my concerns.



> Great. No one in this thread has suggested that kids aren't people.


Removing them from "all people" implies that.



> You're being pedantic and childish.


I'm being explicit and precise. Apparently sticking to facts and logic is childish?



> We will chat again in July to see how my "unsubstantiated claims" work out.


Well if you were engaged in an honest discussion, you wouldn't just make stuff up.
That's not very mature.


----------



## Bananatron

316,000 doses delivered today (.84% of the population, or 1.35% of the remaining eligible population), at this pace we will have all eligible people vaccinated with their first shot within 74 days. *Tuesday June 22, 2021*.


----------



## Money172375

New emergency orders in Ontario.

1. redeployment of health care workers where needed
2. hospital patients can now be moved to other hospitals without consent

the worst it yet to come in Ontario. Hopefully in spite of rising cases, there are less than deaths due to younger patients.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> the worst it yet to come in Ontario. Hopefully in spite of rising cases, there are less than deaths due to younger patients.


New variants hit younger patients harder.

Also we're out of ICU beds, so some people will start getting second rate care very soon.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> New variants hit younger patients harder.
> 
> Also we're out of ICU beds, so some people will start getting second rate care very soon.


But gibor wants to go to the mall!


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> But gibor wants to go to the mall!


Yeah, and I want the death penalty for drunk drivers, you can't always get what you want.


----------



## sags

The kids are out of school for "April week". They will likely be done for the year.


----------



## like_to_retire

Yep. What a weak education they've received this year.









Ottawa schools will likely close after April break, top doctor says


Medical officer of health Dr. Vera Etches is giving notice that a school closure will be "more likely than not" after the spring break.



ottawa.ctvnews.ca





ltr


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The kids are out of school for "April week". They will likely be done for the year.


Yup


----------



## MrMatt

Bananatron said:


> 316,000 doses delivered today (.84% of the population, or 1.35% of the remaining eligible population), at this pace we will have all eligible people vaccinated with their first shot within 74 days. *Tuesday June 22, 2021*.


Yeah, 6 months to give part of the population a shot, that needs a followup within a month to be effective.
When I say "need" I mean that the manufacturer and regulators put this as a requirement for approval.

4 month delay is not approved, only 1 dose not approved.
So we're giving an ineffective vaccine to eligible people.

Maybe it helps, but it seems like a crazy gamble.


----------



## Bananatron

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, 6 months to give part of the population a shot, that *needs a followup within a month to be effectiv*e.
> 
> 
> So we're giving an *ineffective vaccine* to eligible people.


Source on either of these claims? I can be convinced with data.

Anyways, desperate times call for desperate measures. With the current rates of infections plugging away this is 100% a gamble worth taking, even if it upsets those that selfishly prioritize peace of mind over the safety of others.


----------



## james4beach

Bananatron said:


> Anyways, desperate times call for desperate measures. With the current rates of infections plugging away this is 100% a gamble worth taking, even if it upsets those that selfishly prioritize peace of mind over the safety of others.


I agree, we're still in an emergency situation and compromises have to be made. If the Nazis were dropping bombs on us right now, I bet we'd also make a few compromises and probably use some armour and shelter in non-approved ways.

It's also not as big a gamble as MrMatt is making it out to be. The manufacturer guessed at the interval as well. Real world data shows that the single dose has already been surprisingly effective, more so than with a typical vaccine. And the interval between doses, for vaccines in general, is not a hard or precise requirement, because immunity _drops off gradually_, not sharply.


----------



## zinfit

Here is my prediction. As soon as we get into May the Canadian rates will start dropping and we soon be at levels we had last summer. I figure this for two reasons. Vaccinations and people start getting out of the house and getting outside . Its fairly clear that indoor life is good for covid and outdoor life is bad for covid. By September the covid rates will have dropped off a cliff. I am no expert but I haven't found very many reliable experts so I feel free to make my prediction.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> Here is my prediction. As soon as we get into May the Canadian rates will start dropping and we soon be at levels we had last summer. I figure this for two reasons. Vaccinations and people start getting out of the house and getting outside . Its fairly clear that indoor life is good for covid and outdoor life is bad for covid. By September the covid rates will have dropped off a cliff. I am no expert but I haven't found very many reliable experts so I feel free to make my prediction.


I hope you're right; this would be nice. I think this is plausible.

However, I think the experience in BC also has one warning relating to this. One month ago, when the weather got nicer, Public Health in BC told the public that outdoor restrictions have been eased, and encouraged people to socialize outdoors in larger groups. The public *interpreted* this as a go-ahead to socialize more in general, and let their guard down in all respects. Very nice spring weather energized people and made them much more ACTIVE both indoors & outdoors.

I watched the reaction closely and immediately saw many people without masks (indoors), plus significantly more travel and shopping activity in general. Stores became packed and mask compliance went down. I started routinely seeing people in my apartment building without masks.

I took these photos at the time to document the insanity I saw everywhere. We are now paying the price.

Canadians are very sensitive to weather, especially coming out of a stretch of bad winter weather. This is what happened with BC. I'm concerned that as soon as spring weather hits elsewhere in Canada, people may completely relax their protections and engage in more high-risk behaviours. Spring weather is somewhat dangerous because it energizes people, and they step up their level of activity, feel better & more confident.

I'm not a psychologist so I don't know the right way to manage that situation. But I think it's dangerous to announce any easing of restrictions during the first onset of good weather, which is what BC did.

Indoor places like restaurants, bars, gyms should be kept closed when the good weather first begins. This will make sure that overly energetic people don't start rushing indoors and spreading the virus, riding high on the thrill of spring.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I agree, we're still in an emergency situation and compromises have to be made. If the Nazis were dropping bombs on us right now, I bet we'd also make a few compromises and probably use some armour and shelter in non-approved ways.
> 
> It's also not as big a gamble as MrMatt is making it out to be. The manufacturer guessed at the interval as well. Real world data shows that the single dose has already been surprisingly effective, more so than with a typical vaccine. And the interval between doses, for vaccines in general, is not a hard or precise requirement, because immunity _drops off gradually_, not sharply.


I actually think it is a gamble. We don't have data on how long a single dose remains effective.

To me the gamble isn't that the primary strain of COVID19 spreads.
It's that single dosed people, with less effective protection will facilitate the proliferation of new strains.

What I see happening, as a possible case is.
1. People relaxing restrictions because "they're vaccinated"
2. The effectiveness of the vaccine against a variant is too low, which allows the variant to spread, and for new variants to take root and spread. It's one thing to be 75% effective against COVID19, but what about 50% effective and falling against one of the new variants? 
3. I think that improper vaccinations might really push a Canadian variant. Similar to how improper use of antibiotics causes superbugs.

I really fear that continued spread will result in more strains that aren't effectively controlled by the vaccines.
Right now we're seeing a surge in UK variant, but what about the more easily spread variants?


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> To me the gamble isn't that the primary strain of COVID19 spreads.
> It's that single dosed people, with less effective protection will facilitate the proliferation of new strains.


You present a good argument. I just defer to the public health decisionmakers, especially since they have expertise dealing with other infectious disease outbreaks. I'm sure they don't take these decisions lightly, and they are applying practical experience from previous diseases.

The issue of delaying second doses has also been debated internationally, so there is collaboration with foreign medical experts beyond just Canada.

Any of these decisions is a risk/gamble.



MrMatt said:


> 3. I think that improper vaccinations might really push a Canadian variant. Similar to how improper use of antibiotics causes superbugs


I don't see it the same way.

As I understand it, variants (mutations) emerge from widespread, uncontrolled community transmission. Getting more single shots into more people is a strategy to reduce the number of infected people, and keep a lid on community transmission. If we were focusing on giving full (second) doses, we'd cover a smaller number of people and leave more unprotected people, likely resulting in more community transmission.

Also keep in mind that in many parts of the US, daily new case counts exceed Canada. In my view, it's more likely that new mutations will emerge out of the US. They have more total people infected, and spreading COVID than we do.

I'm scared about the huge COVID outbreak zones (like Michigan) right at our border. I think the Michigan rate is something like 5x the Canadian rate, and people are crossing that US border all the time. Even healthcare staff, I believe.

This kind of thing has been a constant nuisance for Ontario. I'm sure we've gotten tons of new COVID infections from American cross-border travel.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> You present a good argument. I just defer to the public health decisionmakers, especially since they have expertise dealing with other infectious disease outbreaks. I'm sure they don't take these decisions lightly, and they are applying practical experience from previous diseases.


I don't trust the public health decisionmakers who lied to us.

Dr Tam & friends said that we didn't need masks or travel restrictions, and that's part of why we're in the mess we're in.
I think she will provide answers in line with the political objectives of Trudeau.



> The issue of delaying second doses has also been debated internationally, so there is collaboration with foreign medical experts beyond just Canada.
> 
> Any of these decisions is a risk/gamble.


Absolutely 




> I don't see it the same way.
> 
> As I understand it, variants (mutations) emerge from widespread, uncontrolled community transmission. Getting more single shots into more people is a strategy to reduce the number of infected people, and keep a lid on community transmission. If we were focusing on giving full (second) doses, we'd cover a smaller number of people and leave more unprotected people, likely resulting in more community transmission.


I disagree, because partially protecting people from infection is how superbugs evolve.
Why do you think this virus would evolve differently?




> Also keep in mind that in many parts of the US, daily new case counts exceed Canada. In my view, it's more likely that new mutations will emerge out of the US. They have more total people infected, and spreading COVID than we do.
> 
> I'm scared about the huge COVID outbreak zones (like Michigan) right at our border. I think the Michigan rate is something like 5x the Canadian rate, and people are crossing that US border all the time. Even healthcare staff, I believe.


But overall Canada is doing worse than the US.








Canada is outpacing U.S. for new COVID-19 cases per capita


Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada have skyrocketed amid the third wave of the pandemic and have now outpaced the United States per capita.




www.ctvnews.ca





Yes, because Canadians run the US health care system. That's why Windsor will remain a hotspot for a while. Though hopefully those workers will get vaccinated (properly) by their employers.

Also that's why I've been calling (for over a year) to shut the border to non-essential travel. 
I think this has been the capstone failure of Trudeaus COVID19 policy.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> I don't trust the public health decisionmakers who lied to us.


If you don't trust Public Health, then you have bigger problems than the 1 or 2 dose issue.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> If you don't trust Public Health, then you have bigger problems than the 1 or 2 dose issue.


Never said I don't trust Public Health, I did say I don't trust the public health decisionmakers who lied to us.
That's a very important distinction and a specific subgroup.

The most obvious is Dr Tam.

She specifically fought travel bans.
She was on the post SARS pandemic preparedness panel, she had the contacts, data and the experience and yet she used her position to argue against travel bans.

She knew better, she lied, I don't trust her.


----------



## sags

It is official in Ontario. All schools to remain closed after the April break.

There will be online learning only until further notice.

There is too much infection spreading from the schools.

That result was highly predicable.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> It is official in Ontario. All schools to remain closed after the April break.
> 
> There will be online learning only until further notice.


Yes everyone knew this was coming.



> There is too much infection spreading from the schools.


Care to back this up with the data, almost all school cases are singles, or siblings.

There is almost no in school spread. The data just isn't there.
Look here in London, they just announced 10 cases! at 9 schools. That means only 1 school had 2 cases and we don't know how or if they're related. 

As much as I'm concerned about COVID19, the idea that schools are festering hotspots of COVID simply isn't backed up by the data. 




> That result was highly predicable.


I agree with that.


----------



## like_to_retire

MrMatt said:


> As much as I'm concerned about COVID19, the idea that schools are festering hotspots of COVID simply isn't backed up by the data.


Yeah, the trouble is that once they close schools then they socialize with their friends and increase the chance of transmission. They have a lot more free time with online learning, so you'll see gangs of kids playing around the neighborhoods rather than the structured and safe space with masks while in school.

ltr


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Yes everyone knew this was coming.


Apparently not our Minister of Education!






CityNews







toronto.citynews.ca


----------



## Money172375

My friends wife is a teacher. Tested positive this weekend.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> My friends wife is a teacher. Tested positive this weekend.


Did any of the kids in the class test positive?


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> Apparently not our Minister of Education!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CityNews
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.citynews.ca


 ... he's still trying to figure out where he fits in all of this (aka his role)!... LMAO.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Did any of the kids in the class test positive?


Correction, she was sent home apr 5. Last the saw child who caught it on April 1, her symptoms started on the 7th, tested positive on 10th.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Correction, she was sent home apr 5. Last the saw child who caught it on April 1, her symptoms started on the 7th, tested positive on 10th.


Crappy


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Crappy


Yup. Husband and 4 kids at home. Will wait to see what happens.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Yup. Husband and 4 kids at home. Will wait to see what happens.


Hoping for the best. It is troubling when the odds don't line up in your favour.


----------



## Retired Peasant

MrMatt said:


> Care to back this up with the data, almost all school cases are singles, or siblings.
> 
> There is almost no in school spread. The data just isn't there.
> Look here in London, they just announced 10 cases! at 9 schools. That means only 1 school had 2 cases and we don't know how or if they're related.


26 cases at St. Mary's Catholic school in Cobourg.


----------



## MrMatt

Retired Peasant said:


> 26 cases at St. Mary's Catholic school in Cobourg.


That's crazy, did someone set up a kissing booth?


----------



## sags

I find this the best site for getting local COVID information (as of Monday April 12)

COVID is clearly spreading in schools from elementary to university.

_*University Outbreaks*: 8 active outbreaks at Western residences (Saugeen-Maitland, Ontario, Elgin, Medway-Sydenham, Delaware, Essex, Perth, King's). 

*School / Childcare Update: *7 new school cases (5 elementary, 2 secondary) and new outbreak at East Carling. There is 1 active childcare centre outbreak and 6 active school outbreaks. In total, there have been 336 total cases (37 childcare/early years, 174 elementary, 122 secondary, 3 elementary/secondary)._


__
https://www.reddit.com/r/londonontario/comments/mpkv7e


----------



## sags

Just reported......J&J vaccine causing similar blood clots to the AZ vaccine.

1 dead and 1 critical.......US halts J&J vaccinations pending further investigation.









US recommends 'pause' for J&J shots in blow to vaccine drive


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. on Tuesday recommended a “pause” in use of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine to investigate reports of rare but potentially dangerous blood clots, setting off a chain reaction worldwide and dealing a setback to the global vaccination campaign...




apnews.com


----------



## fireseeker

sags said:


> Just reported......J&J vaccine causing similar blood clots to the AZ vaccine.
> 
> 1 dead and 1 critical.......US halts J&J vaccinations pending further investigation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US recommends 'pause' for J&J shots in blow to vaccine drive
> 
> 
> WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. on Tuesday recommended a “pause” in use of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine to investigate reports of rare but potentially dangerous blood clots, setting off a chain reaction worldwide and dealing a setback to the global vaccination campaign...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com


Let's not force people to click through for the important context: there are six cases out of 6.8 million administered doses.
That's one in a million.

According to the CDC, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are around 1 in 500,000.


----------



## andrewf

fireseeker said:


> Let's not force people to click through for the important context: there are six cases out of 6.8 million administered doses.
> That's one in a million.
> 
> According to the CDC, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are around 1 in 500,000.


Yes. We still warn people not to stand under tall trees in a thunderstorm.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I find this the best site for getting local COVID information (as of Monday April 12)
> 
> COVID is clearly spreading in schools from elementary to university.


Did you read the data, a school with a single case isn't spreading within the school.
For it to be considered "spreading in the school" you need at least 2 positive cases in the same classroom. Arguably one kid could give to another in a different class, but that seems even less likely.
In your data there were 7 new cases in schools, but only 1 of them was an outbreak (that means more than 1 case in that location). Outbreak means 2 cases, they may or may not be related, but I think it is best to assume they are related until confirmed otherwise.

Given the many students in schools the rate of cases is way below what you'd expect. School age kids are getting COVID at rates far lower than the general population.

Univeristy residences are a completely different story. If you put lots of people in a shared apartment, which is what a residence is, you'll spread cases. Again, these are residences, and while technically part of the university, aren't classrooms.

In short, cases aren't being spread at schools, the data for elementary and secondary schools is pretty good. They're even doing asymptomatic testing and not finding many cases.

FWIW, I'm okay with going back to remote learning, some kids are totallyfreaked out and that's not a good learning environment.
But based on the data, schools aren't COVID hotspots.

When I say "schools" I mean in classroom learning. I don't mean student apartments/residences, nor do I mean zoom calls & remote learning.


----------



## Plugging Along

It's been interesting in my province for school spread. My kids school has had two cases total since the start. Both brought from outside of the school. There were no further cases. I am actually quite surprise, I was expecting more cases and closures in our school, but they are doing great.

However, I have seen that there are outbreaks in other schools. In most cases, it seems that it's being brought from the outside in. It seems when its one case brought in, the school safety procedures are enough to stop the spread. The challenge seems when the kids are infecting each other after school (or lunch). Three large high schools in my area have had to send their classrooms home. Not because of spread initially in the classroom, but in because some idiot had a social gathering/party (one was over 100 kids and other 60+) on the weekends, and then there were 16-28 kids infected from the party, who are then bringing into the classrooms, which are then harder to contain.

Part of me says technically, its' not the school that is causing the outbreaks. In fact, one of the principals sent a note home to the parents begging the parent and keep their kids away from each after 200+ ravine party. The reminded parents how hard they working to keep the kids safe, they ask the parents to do the same. On the other hand, if the kids that get infected at the party and bring it to school, that's a problem too. I can see why in some cases shutting down a school or class makes sense, but I don't actually see shutting down whole schools or the whole system addresses the problem. 

It's tough for my kids, they were supposed to meet up with friends from this out school (outside, socially distance and within the rules here), then I found out about the outbreak, and even though I know these other 2 kids did NOT go to the party, I had to make the decision not to let them go.


----------



## james4beach

Here's an interesting COVID transmission case study, worth reading I think. This family lives in the same home. Father, mother, son, daughter.

The father had contact in his workplace with someone who had COVID-19. Then, the father tested positive. We know this happens a lot as workplaces are still one of the main points of transmission (very hard to avoid when people are in close contact with each other for long periods).

The daughter is a nurse who had already had 1 vaccination dose. She didn't get sick.

The father, mother, and son all got sick and ended up in the hospital. The son is a healthy 22 year old, and he required 9 days of hospital care.


----------



## OptsyEagle

OK. So I am not sure what this tells me but I am trying to keep track of the hospitalizations by age, over time, to see if the variants are sending more younger people to the hospital. You will have to take my word for the info, but since I am not sure what it all means, you can be sure I am not fudging it. This is for Ontario, over the last 2 weeks.

Daily Cases up 78% (there will be a lag between cases and hospitalizations. Using a 6 day lag, cases are up 38% - Mar31 to Apr 7)

In the Hospital

Age 0 - 9 (10 to 12 ) up 20%
Age 10 - 19 (3 to 13) up 333%
Age 20 - 29 (32 to 73) up 128%
Age 30 - 39 (47 to 99) up 111%
Age 40 - 49 (88 to 165) up 88%
Age 50 - 59 (140 to 252) up 80%
Age 60 - 69 (158 to 325) up 106%
Age 70 - 79 (195 to 314) up 61%
Age 80 - 89 (157 to 236) up 50%
Age 90+ (54 to 59) up 9%

It seems to me that the older ages are probably benefiting from vaccination. The younger ages (20 to 39), who were pretty much escaping harm, are starting to feel the effects of the variant. All ages are going up, probably due to the variants and lack of vaccination for these particular people. The older age groups are not going up as fast, probably due to vaccination. 

That is what I see but perhaps that is what I expected to see. It certainly appears that we have a tougher virus on our hands.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> The younger ages (20 to 39), who were pretty much escaping harm, are starting to feel the effects of the variant.


Tough to say from short data points ... I gather you'd need to normalize the hospital rates with the new case rates for each age group. In other words, if the 10-29 age group is getting more cases than the norm one would expect higher hospitalizations for the group as well.

Edit: Took a peak at the Canada hospitalizations for the 20-29 group ... still holding at 3.3%.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Tough to say from short data points ... I gather you'd need to normalize the hospital rates with the new case rates for each age group. In other words, if the 10-29 age group is getting more cases than the norm one would expect higher hospitalizations for the group as well.
> 
> Edit: Took a peak at the Canada hospitalizations for the 20-29 group ... still holding at 3.3%.


Agreed. I assume you are talking about trying to determine if hospitalizations per case is rising. In other words if hospitalizations were going up at the same rate as cases then one could say that the virulence of the virus has not changed...just the infection rate.

Even if I went to the trouble to determine that, which is quite difficult with the lag that exists between infections and hospitalizations, does it really matter? What the data is showing is that the younger ages are heading to the hospital at higher rates then they use to. If this is due to a higher infection rate then it does not really change the point being made that this virus is more dangerous to them.

I should also point out, for anyone that might not have noticed, that at the end of the day, this new virus appears to currently be the *most dangerous to people age 60 to 69*. I just want everyone NOT to miss that point as well. It is probably more important then the other one I am trying to work out and is probably a function of upper age compared to low vaccination rates.


----------



## Money172375

Here’s a story about how bad things are in hospitals. This is Simcoe region. Our neighbour went to the hospital (shes 70+). Wasn’t feeling well. They told her to go get tested, it’s probably COVID, get some rest. Didn’t get better. She went back. Was refused entry. Told to go get tested, go home. She said she was not leaving until a physician saw her. They called security. She collapsed at the hospital. Was finally seen, ruptured appendix, perforated bowel. They sent her home with antibiotics and told her to wait for a surgery. No beds, no doctors.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I have a friend of mine that had a heart attack in 2019. He was arguing that covid was no different then the flu. I ended the argument by saying that I don't remember the hospitals being overwhelmed by the flu. I then added:

"how would you have felt if you called 911 when you were having your heart attack and all they said was take two aspirin and don't call us in the morning".

I think he got my point.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Here’s a story about how bad things are in hospitals. This is Simcoe region. Our neighbour went to the hospital (shes 70+). Wasn’t feeling well. They told her to go get tested, it’s probably COVID, get some rest. Didn’t get better. She went back. Was refused entry. Told to go get tested, go home. She said she was not leaving until a physician saw her. They called security. She collapsed at the hospital. Was finally seen, ruptured appendix, perforated bowel. They sent her home with antibiotics and told her to wait for a surgery. No beds, no doctors.


That's "triage" in action.

I don't think people realize how bad it is.

You might not know but there are a lot of people who work at the hospital and in the medical field who aren't patient facing. They're being reassigned to provide physical care, in hospital because they are short staffed. 

They've already put in place orders that they don't need patient consent for a variety of things. They're transferring people to far away hospitals because they have the staff.

It's going to be a tense couple of weeks.

I really hope it gets better soon, but with the massive anti lockdown protests, I'm concerned.
That being said, Costco blocked off the non food aisles, I was in and out in minutes.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> It seems to me that the older ages are probably benefiting from vaccination. The younger ages (20 to 39), who were pretty much escaping harm, are starting to feel the effects of the variant. All ages are going up, probably due to the variants and lack of vaccination for these particular people. The older age groups are not going up as fast, probably due to vaccination.


Thanks, interesting and I was wondering about these stats myself as well.

There could be many things at play. I'd think the big one is that most people over age 70 are now vaccinated. A single dose immediately protects people.

My guess is that another big factor here is the jobs recovery in Canada. Employment across Canada is up tremendously in the last few months (we're now practically at pre pandemic employment levels) and most people who work are age 20-50.

These are also the age group that aren't vaccinated. Essential workers were vaccinated, but now that employment is up BROADLY this means that all the other workers are in harm's way... dealing with the public and clustered together... without vaccination.

If I was a working age person, who was working in dangerous conditions (dealing with the public) and could afford to quit, I would immediately stop working and wait until I get vaccinated.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> Here’s a story about how bad things are in hospitals. This is Simcoe region. Our neighbour went to the hospital (shes 70+). Wasn’t feeling well. They told her to go get tested, it’s probably COVID, get some rest. Didn’t get better. She went back. Was refused entry. Told to go get tested, go home. She said she was not leaving until a physician saw her. They called security. She collapsed at the hospital. Was finally seen, ruptured appendix, perforated bowel. They sent her home with antibiotics and told her to wait for a surgery. No beds, no doctors.


Extremely important and this is what some people (mainly young, but also middle age) don't get. They insist that they are not afraid of COVID.

What they don't understand is what happens in the hospitals. They *will* be affected, if they get into a car accident, have a burst appendix, or any one of tons of other medical emergencies that need treatment.

This is why it's so important to shut down society... shut down EVERYTHING... to the point that the hospitals are not stressed out.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> These are also the age group that aren't vaccinated. Essential workers were vaccinated, but now that employment is up BROADLY this means that all the other workers are in harm's way... dealing with the public and clustered together... without vaccination.


Not here in Ontario, some health care workers (in hospitals) are still trying to get their first shot, and very very few have their second shot.

We're already almost out of staff to run the hospitals, we need to get them as protected as possible, losing even a few staff to illness is going to hurt our ability to care for the sick.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> This is why it's so important to shut down society... shut down EVERYTHING... to the point that the hospitals are not stressed out.


When you say everything, what do you mean?
Food processing, grocery stores?
Garbage collection?
Police and Fire?
Electricity and telecom?


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Not here in Ontario, some health care workers (in hospitals) are still trying to get their first shot, and very very few have their second shot.
> 
> We're already almost out of staff to run the hospitals, we need to get them as protected as possible, losing even a few staff to illness is going to hurt our ability to care for the sick.


That's disastrous. I didn't realize that some health care workers still don't have their first shots.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> When you say everything, what do you mean?
> Food processing, grocery stores?
> Garbage collection?
> Police and Fire?
> Electricity and telecom?


Obviously requires some care, but you sure as hell shouldn't have restaurants and GYMS open (as I've seen in BC).


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> That's disastrous. I didn't realize that some health care workers still don't have their first shots.


I personally know hospital staff that didn't get their first shot until early April, and they were looking at a week or two to find a slot. 

That's why I think it's crazy they're starting to give shots to 18yr olds, and people are walking away from AZ shots.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> That's why I think it's crazy they're starting to give shots to 18yr olds, and people are walking away from AZ shots.


I heard there is an excess of AZ shots. So why aren't they giving all the available AZ shots to healthcare workers?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Obviously requires some care, but you sure as hell shouldn't have restaurants and GYMS open (as I've seen in BC).


They're closed here in Ontario.
I think physical activity is critically important, but gyms always seemed a bit gross to me anyway. 


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/gym-outbreak-quebec-city-1.5973890



At this point, even though the data says it's not causing spread, I'm even in favour of shutting schools, just to reduce as much as possible.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I heard there is an excess of AZ shots. So why aren't they giving all the available AZ shots to healthcare workers?


We have shortages.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/scarborough-shn-uhn-vaccines-clinics-shortage-1.5986643



AZ only provides mid 70's protection after one shot (after 2 week effectiveness)

I want our hospital workers at highest protection levels. 

Any care provider who gets the sniffles for a few days is a major loss to our ability to care for others.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Even if I went to the trouble to determine that, which is quite difficult with the lag that exists between infections and hospitalizations, does it really matter? What the data is showing is that the younger ages are heading to the hospital at higher rates then they use to. If this is due to a higher infection rate then it does not really change the point being made that this virus is more dangerous to them.


Again, difficult to say but you likely need access more data than they give on the web and track for longer periods of time. With that said, on a Canada scale, the 20-29 age group hospitalizations are not yet increasing.


----------



## Money172375

Something weird going to,,,,,some GTA clinics are temp Closing due to vaccine shortages. Yet, my friend who is a teacher had his appointment moved to April 15..... originally scheduled for the 21st. Moving appointments to benefit teachers? Not saying that’s good or bad, but the coincidence seems weird.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Something weird going to,,,,,some GTA clinics are temp Closing due to vaccine shortages. Yet, my friend who is a teacher had his appointment moved to April 15..... originally scheduled for the 21st. Moving appointments to benefit teachers? Not saying that’s good or bad, but the coincidence seems weird.


Didn't some areas open up to 18+?

The thing is that they need to plan and distribute, and it's a complex job to hundreds of sites.
Now with pharmacies coming online, it's going to be crazy.

So I think until we have an excess, we'll have temporary shortages. But that's just because we're not stockpiling much.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Didn't some areas open up to 18+?
> 
> The thing is that they need to plan and distribute, and it's a complex job to hundreds of sites.
> Now with pharmacies coming online, it's going to be crazy.
> 
> So I think until we have an excess, we'll have temporary shortages. But that's just because we're not stockpiling much.


Yes, some areas are 18+. Some talk now of allowing everyone to pre-register. Will help them plan who wants a shot and where. Also give some peace of mind to those of us waiting.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Yes, some areas are 18+. Some talk now of allowing everyone to pre-register. Will help them plan who wants a shot and where. Also give some peace of mind to those of us waiting.


Well I think first, we need to vaccinate hospital staff.
Sorry but we're at capacity, you take out 5,10,20% of hospital staff out for a few days because they got COVID, and we're screwed.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Well I think first, we need to vaccinate hospital staff.
> Sorry but we're at capacity, you take out 5,10,20% of hospital staff out for a few days because they got COVID, and we're screwed.


It’s shocking that any medical staff are not vaccinated yet. Personal decision? They’re eligible are they not?


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> It’s shocking that any medical staff are not vaccinated yet. Personal decision? They’re eligible are they not?


Nope, there are staff who want to be vaccinated, but can't get it. Apparently they're not "essential"

I personally think that ever single person who works on Hospital grounds, including admin and even the parking lot attendant should be getting vaccines. I feel for the elderly people at higher risk, but our absolute #1 priority must be making sure we maintain our ability to take care of people who are sick, and that means health care workers first.

IMO They're ALL more essential than the local McNugget factory. (Yes, the Cargill factory makes McNuggets)








London MPPs call for all essential workers to be vaccinated, after Cargill outbreak infects over 80 workers


LONDON – London NDP MPPs Peggy Sattler, Teresa Armstrong and Terence Kernaghan have released a statement in response to the temporary closure of the Cargill poultry processing plant in London after 82 workers tested positive for COVID-19:




www.ontariondp.ca





I do think food is also very important, but we can handle a few food plants shutting down for a week or two. Shut down a hospital for a day or two and people will die.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> That's "triage" in action.
> 
> I don't think people realize how bad it is.
> 
> You might not know but there are a lot of people who work at the hospital and in the medical field who aren't patient facing. They're being reassigned to provide physical care, in hospital because they are short staffed.
> 
> They've already put in place orders that they don't need patient consent for a variety of things. They're transferring people to far away hospitals because they have the staff.
> 
> It's going to be a tense couple of weeks.
> 
> I really hope it gets better soon, but with the massive anti lockdown protests, I'm concerned.
> That being said, Costco blocked off the non food aisles, I was in and out in minutes.


I notice that gibor made himself scarce after his incessant moaning a few weeks ago about how lockdowns were completely unnecessary and ICUs were empty.


----------



## sags

Yup...the people who kept screaming to open everything up again are now scarce as hen's teeth or pretending it wasn't them..

"On again......off again shutdown" Ontario is in the thick of it now. Our local health authority said they don't have the capacity to perform tracking except in some cases. I posted awhile ago about listening to the scanner on a Sunday night. I hadn't done that in years but kept hearing sirens going by all the time, so I got curious. Call after call after call.....COVID positive people in distress. I had no idea so many people had COIVID and were at home. Surely the Ontario government knew a crisis was building but they waited and waited.

The Toronto Sun has been relentless in it's criticism of shut downs and demanding everything open right up.

Ontario voters know who is responsible and there is going to be hell to pay at the next election.


----------



## sags

I don't know why everyone is so hot to travel right now in the middle of a pandemic.

Our son has had to work in construction in Toronto and stays at the Hilton hotel by the airport. They have a 2 bedroom penthouse suite for $179 a night......normally a $700 a night suite he says. But everything in the hotel is closed. There is nothing open.

They come and clean the room and tape it all off with plastic so you know nobody else has been in it.

There is no amenities open and they ordered "room service food" yesterday after work and he sent me a picture on Snapchat. He captioned it with "Hilton Hotel food".

It looked like a greasy pork chop with some kind of gelatinous substance on it and 2 sprigs of asparagus. I have seen pictures of prison food that looked more appetizing.

Why in the world do people want to travel now. The hotels are the pits and nothing is open.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Ontario voters know who is responsible and there is going to be hell to pay at the next election.


The Federal government is responsible for not getting enough vaccine to protect the people of Canada. I'm glad you recognize this failure and hope you remember at election time.

ltr


----------



## andrewf

like_to_retire said:


> The Federal government is responsible for not getting enough vaccine to protect the people of Canada. I'm glad you recognize this failure and hope you remember at election time.
> 
> ltr


We are now where the US was a month ago in terms of vaccinations. Even if we were on track with them in vaccinations, we would still be in the same situation were are now.


----------



## Money172375

Grey-Bruce region in Ontario is on fire. They’re telling people to assume they are carriers for the next 48 hours while they attempt contact tracing. Region was in the “geeen’ status not long ago.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Edit: Took a peak at the Canada hospitalizations for the 20-29 group ... still holding at 3.3%.


By the way. How do you think they are calculating "case rate". Just like it sounds one would think that it is the rate of hospitalizations compared to the rate of infection cases. If so, is it somehow time lagged? As we know infection cases today will not show their hospitalizations for probably 6 days or more into the future. Perhaps it is population normalized or something like that. Any idea?


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> By the way. How do you think they are calculating "case rate". Just like it sounds one would think that it is the rate of hospitalizations compared to the rate of infection cases. If so, is it somehow time lagged? As we know infection cases today will not show their hospitalizations for probably 6 days or more into the future. Perhaps it is population normalized or something like that. Any idea?


Honestly it's difficult to determine based on many of the stats they give us though some provinces give out more data than others to the public. Time lag and missed reporting days (causes spikes) all can throw things off, among other things I'm sure.

In the case of younger hospitalizations I keep hearing about (our local head Dr reported that on the radio the other day) I just did a quick compare of age groups here in MB. 

There are more cases showing up in the 10-19 age group, looks like they'll overtake the 40-59 age groups shortly.


----------



## Beaver101

Ford's cabinet to meet amid growing calls to take further action to slow spread of COVID-19



> .. In an interview with CTV News Toronto on Thursday, Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca said that he believes “everything should be on the table,” including “things like temporarily closing down certain parts of the economy or introducing a curfew.” ...


I think Ford should impose the curfew asap - just a matter of time (which is the essence to get the CovidFire under control). And now watch the TrollBabies going to "bawl" ... some more in the basement.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> Ford's cabinet to meet amid growing calls to take further action to slow spread of COVID-19
> 
> I think Ford should impose the curfew asap - just a matter of time (which is the essence to get the CovidFire under control). And now watch the TrollBabies going to "bawl" ... some more in the basement.


If people are ignoring the lockdown (and we know people are), a curfew won't have any impact. But it will inflame tensions.
Also if there is an altercation, we don't have the hospital capacity to treat injuries right now.

Fortunately we have cold weather, at least hear, so I didn't see nearly as many people gathering in the parks, hopefully they didn't just shift indoors.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> If people are ignoring the lockdown (and we know people are), a curfew won't have any impact. But it will inflame tensions.
> Also if there is an altercation, we don't have the hospital capacity to treat injuries right now.


 ... so what do you propose? Status quo? Without a curfew (which hasn't been tried), will you see the rise stop, or better yet static? Let the cops / laws deal with the delinquents. It's time that Ford stop coddling them, needlessly.



> Fortunately we have cold weather, at least hear, so I didn't see nearly as many people gathering in the parks, hopefully they didn't just shift indoors.


 ... I guess you didn't see Money's post about Grey Bruce county? What about that restaurant out in "Vaughan" (not your town) .. there're so many violations all over the map we're losing count.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... so what do you propose? Status quo? Without a curfew (which hasn't been tried), will you see the rise stop, or better yet static? Let the cops / laws deal with the delinquents. It's time that Ford stop coddling them.
> 
> ... I guess you didn't see Money's post about Grey Bruce county? What about that restaurant out in "Vaughan" (not your town) .. there're so many violations we losing count.


What do I propose?
The same freaking thing I've been calling for since March 2020.

Immediate and enforced non-essential travel bans, with quarantines.

Enforcement of restrictions.

Ban non essential travel between cities, of course leaders (Trudeau, Ford etc) have been ignoring these guidelines from the beginning.

Put antivaxxers and those violating restrictions on "reduced care" lists.
If you're marching in an antivax protest, no ICU for you (when we run out)
If you refuse a vaccine, end of the line, no ICU for you (when we run out)




Missed opportunities?
Closing the borders to non-essential travel, failure to implement quarantine. 
Too many new cases are the UK variant, which is driving the overload.

I'm mixed on business closures. Businesses following restrictions and implementing aggressive control measures don't seem to be spreading.
But those who didn't follow measures seem to be causing problems.
Not sure how to balance that right now. But with hospitals full I'd like to encourage all or most stores to "pick up only" where possible. I've been doing mostly grocery pickup for about 3 years now.

Ban protests and large gatherings, I think they should have jailed organizers and promoters (like Trudeau), but that's not the world we live in.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... I guess you didn't see Money's post about Grey Bruce county? What about that restaurant out in "Vaughan" (not your town) .. there're so many violations all over the map we're losing count.


I think that if someone illegally opens their business, and spreading can be traced, they should be sued and have their property seized for knowingly endangering the public.
Of course this won't happen, because then the politicians won't get re-elected.


----------



## Money172375

Ryan Imgrund (biostatisticians I follow on Twitter) predicts the r0 will be below 1.0 by next week in Ontario. The warm weather and easter brought too many people together in Ontario before the lockdown.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> There are more cases showing up in the 10-19 age group, looks like they'll overtake the 40-59 age groups shortly.


I saw that in my dataset posted above for Ontario. I figure it is probably due to 15 to 19 year olds in that stat. since the 0 to 9 year olds seem to still be maintaining a pretty good resistance to severe disease, even with these new variants.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Australia are back to normal life because they managed COVID pretty well and acted fast.

What was one of the rules? A curfew. We are doing it in Quebec and the increase in cases is much less than Ontario.

What were the rules in Australia during their second lockdown?

You cannot leave your home unless it’s for exercising, caregiving, working or buying essential supplies. If you do leave, you must stay within 5 km of home
Masks have to be worn outside
Schools changed to remote learning
Childcare centres are closed
You cannot have visitors or go to another person’s house unless it is for the purpose of giving or receiving care
You can meet one other person outdoors for a maximum of two hours
*There is a curfew between 9 p.m. and 5 a.m. (previously 8 p.m. to 5 a.m.)* The onset of the curfew was adjusted to one hour later as spring approaches in the southern hemisphere and daylight hours will begin getting longer.
There is a ban on weddings
Restaurants and cafes will only be open for takeaway and delivery
General retail, gyms, hair salons and bars are closed

We were on a curfew at 8 PM in Montreal and then it went to 9:30 PM and now we are back to 8 PM. When we got back to 8 PM, some stupid protesters smashed windows of restaurants, just for that 1h30 retreat in curfew. As if restaurant owners needed this. Some people are so dumb.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> I saw that in my dataset posted above for Ontario. I figure it is probably due to 15 to 19 year olds in that stat. since the 0 to 9 year olds seem to still be maintaining a pretty good resistance to severe disease, even with these new variants.


I was just comparing cases reported, not hospitalizations. Of course if cases go up hospitalizations will rise as well. I see a rise in the 0-9 age group cases as well, just not quite as much as the 10-19 but close.

On the plus side, looks like we've finally got a good supply of vaccines! Our minimum age has now dropped to 59 so likely another month or so before the higher risk age groups all have had one shot.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Australia are back to normal life because they managed COVID pretty well and acted fast.
> 
> What was one of the rules? A curfew. We are doing it in Quebec and the increase in cases is much less than Ontario.
> 
> What were the rules in Australia during their second lockdown?
> 
> You cannot leave your home unless it’s for exercising, caregiving, working or buying essential supplies. If you do leave, you must stay within 5 km of home
> Masks have to be worn outside
> Schools changed to remote learning
> Childcare centres are closed
> You cannot have visitors or go to another person’s house unless it is for the purpose of giving or receiving care
> You can meet one other person outdoors for a maximum of two hours
> *There is a curfew between 9 p.m. and 5 a.m. (previously 8 p.m. to 5 a.m.)* The onset of the curfew was adjusted to one hour later as spring approaches in the southern hemisphere and daylight hours will begin getting longer.
> There is a ban on weddings
> Restaurants and cafes will only be open for takeaway and delivery
> General retail, gyms, hair salons and bars are closed
> 
> We were on a curfew at 8 PM in Montreal and then it went to 9:30 PM and now we are back to 8 PM. When we got back to 8 PM, some stupid protesters smashed windows of restaurants, just for that 1h30 retreat in curfew. As if restaurant owners needed this. Some people are so dumb.


In Ontario we have much of those restrictions, but they're simply not enforcing them.

I think masks while exercising outside is dumb. I don't want to wear a mask when I go for my daily run/bike rides, and it's relatively trivial to stay 2m away from people.

Childcare centers need to be open for essential workers. A very large number of hospital staff have kids.

I think the curfew is actually redundant, what behaviour is it going to stop? People walking their dogs when they get off shift? 
Sorry, if I was working in an ICU all day, when I get home at 11pm, I should be allowed to go walk my dog, just like someone who got off at 4pm.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Sorry, if I was working in an ICU all day, when I get home at 11pm, I should be allowed to go walk my dog, just like someone who got off at 4pm.


You can go and walk your dog.

The rule here is a curfew at 8 PM but you can walk your dog in a radius of 1 km of your house.


----------



## andrewf

In Montreal, they were renting dogs (as a joke) to allow people to go out after curfew.

I don't think a curfew should be necessary.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> You can go and walk your dog.
> 
> The rule here is a curfew at 8 PM but you can walk your dog in a radius of 1 km of your house.


Then what is the point?
Seems like the curfew has the same restrictions that should apply all day.

But I do agree, they need to clamp down on travel. They just can't at this point.


----------



## sags

I find it somewhat comforting that in the message from Grey Bruce the infections were coming from "bush parties" and people gathering together unprotected.

I don't do any of those things, and my wife does all the shopping. She is fully vaccinated and wears a mask and shield.

Unfortunately our grandson lives with his mom and visits back and forth with his dad on weekends. That puts us in greater danger because we don't control what he does. They all work with the public and take precautions.....but he has been in school until now and the danger is there

We are forced to tell him he can only come over and chat from a distance. But......my son constantly needs me to pick up our grandson or drive him home.

We both wear masks and he sits in the back of the car.......but still, I could get infected from him.

After 231 pages and 4605 posts on this thread and the virus is worse than ever. Lord I hate this virus 😟


----------



## sags

I am scheduled for my first vaccination on Sunday. For those who have had a vaccination.......does it help with the anxiety level ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I am scheduled for my first vaccination on Sunday. For those who have had a vaccination.......does it help with the anxiety level ?


what anxiety level?
Logically in 2 weeks when it becomes partially effective you can feel less in fear.

But really, why worry, take some precations, and hope for the best.
Why worry about something you can't control.


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> I am scheduled for my first vaccination on Sunday. For those who have had a vaccination.......does it help with the anxiety level ?


No anxiety here. But after one vaccination, nothing changes. You should carry on just as though you haven't received it. You won't get the second jab for close to 16 weeks. In the meantime you have some protection - say 50-80%. The remaining 50-20% are the odds of you *getting* Covid. Not that encouraging. Only when a large percentage of the population has received both jabs, will we feel we are relatively safe.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> For those who have had a vaccination.......does it help with the anxiety level ?


I know one friend who is greatly relieved to get the first shot knowing the chances of getting seriously ill (or worse) are significantly reduced.

Also remember, you need a few weeks for it to take effect.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> I am scheduled for my first vaccination on Sunday. For those who have had a vaccination.......does it help with the anxiety level ?


Yeah, I think so. Tomorrow, I am at 14 days since my first dose of Pfizer, and they say depending on the individual I would be around 80%-90% protected.

When I go out for my walks or bike rides now I don't worry as much if I come too close to people. When I go to the grocery store, I don't feel as tentative when I pass someone too close.

My overall feeling is that I am now not likely to get the virus, and if I do I probably won't die. There is some solace in that feeling for sure.

ltr


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Then what is the point?


The point is that you won't gather with friends and party with a curfew at 8 PM. Doesn't mean you can't walk your dog around your house.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Hey, if the curfew works to bring the numbers down as it did as per MrBlackhill's post #4601 above, I'm all for it. I think this is alot better than closing part of the economy though it's on the table too, wow. Maybe some Ontarians would prefer that too.

It's about time Ford use some "real" "tough-love" stance as his "emergency break","lockdown","shut-down","restriction","stay-at-home" "messages" ain't working to bring those infection numbers down. It's the opposite now.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> The point is that you won't gather with friends and party with a curfew at 8 PM. Doesn't mean you can't walk your dog around your house.


You can't gather with friends or have a party now, having an 8pm curfew doesn't change anything.


----------



## james4beach

BC is reporting that they have the largest proportion of COVID cases with the Brazilian variant, of any province.

Other provinces are picking it up from BC and taking it elsewhere. For example that woman I saw from Edmonton in my building lobby who was visiting her daughter... maybe she took the Brazilian mutant strain back to Alberta.

All these Ontario & Quebec tourists who keep coming to BC, are picking up the mutant strains and taking it back to their cities out east. Hope they had a fun Spring Break!!

Here is how the virus is being transmitted within BC. What I find interesting about this is how different the mix is, even between two nearby regions. This shows that we can't generalize and blame a single factor (nation wide) for the COVID problem.


----------



## Bananatron

andrewf said:


> We are now where the US was a month ago in terms of vaccinations. Even if we were on track with them in vaccinations, we would still be in the same situation were are now.


I'm not sure that logic computes. That would mean that USA is in the same situation that we are in right now.

USA 7 day case 2nd wave peak - Jan 12 - 256,000 per day.
USA Current 7 day average - 72,000 (28% of peak)

Canada 2nd wave peak 8,800
Canada current 8,600 (and rapidly rising) (97.7% of peak)


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> You can't gather with friends or have a party now,* having an 8pm curfew doesn't change anything.*


 ... really ... so what's with the young crowds getting together for a fast & furious stunt on the streets or empty mall lots around 11 pm? Maybe this isn't happening in your town but definitely still going on around the GTA with plenty of space. Whereas in downtown Metro TO, they're out for a smoke (aka no mask) and greeting thy-neighbours. Next thing you know, they're congregating to get to "know each other" "better".


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> BC is reporting that they have the largest proportion of COVID cases with the Brazilian variant, of any province.
> 
> Other provinces are picking it up from BC and taking it elsewhere. For example that woman I saw from Edmonton in my building lobby who was visiting her daughter... maybe she took the Brazilian mutant strain back to Alberta.
> 
> *All these Ontario & Quebec tourists who keep coming to BC, are picking up the mutant strains and taking it back to their cities out east. Hope they had a fun Spring Break!!*
> 
> Here is how the virus is being transmitted within BC. What I find interesting about this is how different the mix is, even between two nearby regions. This shows that we can't generalize and blame a single factor (nation wide) for the COVID problem.
> 
> View attachment 21564


 ... can't help these people who can't follow the simplest instruction of "Stay-At-Home" as advised by Ontario's premier. For these folks, they work on the premises of "OMG, it's too hard to do that!!!" plus "it's their (moronic) right" to refuse any lockdown!!!! WAAAH!!!!


----------



## andrewf

wow @ that bar/restaurant stat. Everyone keeps claiming that bars and restaurants are not a significant infection risk. It doesn't really make sense how they wouldn't. You can't eat or drink with a mask on, and alcohol lowers inhibitions and causes people to speak 'moistly'.


----------



## andrewf

Bananatron said:


> I'm not sure that logic computes. That would mean that USA is in the same situation that we are in right now.
> 
> USA 7 day case 2nd wave peak - Jan 12 - 256,000 per day.
> USA Current 7 day average - 72,000 (28% of peak)
> 
> Canada 2nd wave peak 8,800
> Canada current 8,600 (and rapidly rising) (97.7% of peak)


The level of vaccination the US is at is not sufficient for herd immunity. Maybe enough of their population has natural immunity from prior infection. Maybe they are just at a different place in the cycle, and their _fourth_ wave is yet to come.


----------



## Bananatron

andrewf said:


> wow @ that bar/restaurant stat. Everyone keeps claiming that bars and restaurants are not a significant infection risk. It doesn't really make sense how they wouldn't. You can't eat or drink with a mask on, and alcohol lowers inhibitions and causes people to speak 'moistly'.


We've gone to family restaurants (think boston pizza) occasionally through the pandemic and never felt that it was anymore of a risk than getting takeout. The other night however the wife and I went to a bar type restaurant and it was like walking into a different world. Definitely felt like that place was a breeding ground for spread with drunk people speaking and acting moistly.


----------



## Bananatron

andrewf said:


> The level of vaccination the US is at is not sufficient for herd immunity. Maybe enough of their population has natural immunity from prior infection. Maybe they are just at a different place in the cycle, and their _fourth_ wave is yet to come.


Obviously its not enough for herd immunity, but 40% is better than 20% when it comes to spread and hospitalizations.

Why would you think that a country that is well on its way to herd immunity via mass vaccination would be on its way to another "wave"? (God I'm starting to hate that term)


----------



## andrewf

Bananatron said:


> Obviously its not enough for herd immunity, but 40% is better than 20% when it comes to spread and hospitalizations.
> 
> Why would you think that a country that is well on its way to herd immunity via mass vaccination would be on its way to another "wave"? (God I'm starting to hate that term)


There are certainly states within the US that are experiencing a wave right now, despite their level of vaccination.

See Michigan: Michigan Coronavirus: 857,774 Cases and 17,817 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer
See Florida, a wave is apparently building: Florida Coronavirus: 2,148,448 Cases and 34,245 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer
See New York, basically in a plateau of moderately high daily cases: New York Coronavirus: 2,024,251 Cases and 51,665 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer
See New Jersey, similar to NY. They never really came down from the peak. New Jersey Coronavirus: 967,401 Cases and 25,053 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer
See Illinois, cases are starting to build into a new wave: Illinois Coronavirus: 1,292,515 Cases and 23,896 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer
See Pennsylvania, ditto Pennsylvania Coronavirus: 1,098,619 Cases and 25,679 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer

The US is a big country with different regions and different dynamics at play for the pandemic. It is not the case that everywhere the US has the pandemic on lock, despite higher levels of vaccination. Even the Canadian provides are somewhat out of phase with their waves. So just because the US is at a lower ebb overall, doesn't mean their pandemic is over yet. There is time for them to see a resurgence, particularly if they hastily remove restrictions and encourage high amounts of exposure (like unmasked ball games). It may not be as bad as their earlier waves (it shouldn't be) but it could be a good deal higher than where they are now.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... really ... so what's with the young crowds getting together for a fast & furious stunt on the streets or empty mall lots around 11 pm? Maybe this isn't happening in your town but definitely still going on around the GTA with plenty of space. Whereas in downtown Metro TO, they're out for a smoke (aka no mask) and greeting thy-neighbours. Next thing you know, they're congregating to get to "know each other" "better".


Gathering in that manner is already prohibited under the lockdown restrictions, so a curfew changes nothing.
doesn't matter if it's 11am or 11pm, it's not permitted.

So implementing a curfew changes nothing, but hey people love do nothing policies.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Okay, let the train-wreck run then ... besides Ford is "not a big fan of curfews" 'cause Tory isn't one too since neither can't get the enforcement(s) to work. 

Let's see how far the "new dithering restrictions" will go. Maybe we'll get a 4th wave too after the 3rd one decimates Ontario's health systems. Ms. Elliott should be pleased.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Okay, let the train-wreck run then ... besides Ford is "not a big fan of curfews" 'cause Tory isn't one too since neither can't get the enforcement(s) to work.
> 
> Let's see how far the "new dithering restrictions" will go. Maybe we'll get a 4th wave too after the 3rd one decimates Ontario's health systems. Ms. Elliott should be pleased.


I'm not saying that either, I want more restrictions, I wanted them before easter when they would have had an impact.

I'm for more restrictions, but a curfew isn't a further restriction. Saying there is a curfew, but having the exact same restrictions as the rest of the day is meaningless.
Go ahead, build a wall around Toronto, fine.

But don't sit there pushing for measures that will have no impact.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I'm not saying that either, I want more restrictions, I wanted them before easter when they would have had an impact.
> 
> I'm for more restrictions, but a curfew isn't a further restriction. Saying there is a curfew, *but having the exact same restrictions as the rest of the day is meaningless.*
> Go ahead, build a wall around Toronto, fine.
> 
> But don't sit there pushing for measures that will have no impact.


 ... there, you said it yourself. What "more restrictions" do you think Ford is considering? I'm reading CP24 here:

Toronto’s mayor says he's ‘not a big fan’ of curfews as Ford gov’t considers new restrictions



> ... Premier Doug Ford’s cabinet met on Thursday to discuss potential new restrictions and sources told CTV News and CP24 that the province is considering shutting down all construction projects that are not deemed critical infrastructure. Other limits could be placed on non-essential manufacturing and warehouse businesses, sources say, and the province could also introduce fines for non-essential businesses that refuse to let employees work from home when they are otherwise able to.
> 
> Prohibiting indoor weddings, funerals, and religious services is also something that is under consideration, the sources confirmed. ...


Weren't those the 1st wave restrictions? Seems like those restrictions are aimed at "businesses" and already that part of that sector (small businesses) are screaming. So Ford is okay with sacrificing the economy now? Makes no sense. Or doing a patch job. 

I think he should start getting together with Ontario's Solicitor General [or whoever is responsible for law enforcements] (believe this is part of Ms. Elliott's expertise too, if not portfolio) to "robust" the "enforcements" all around, if those are considered "new" restrictions.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario to release new COVID-19 modelling amid record breaking case counts and hospitalizations

Not sure what's the point of doing all these modellings other than wasting taxpayers money for some "experts" telling the public this when the "other experts aka those in the government" can't handle or even prepare for the worst case scenarios.


----------



## Money172375

These are the rumoured new restrictions in Ontario

No outdoor social gathering with people outside your household (no more walks in the park with friends/family)
no weddings or funeral attendance
close all non-essential retail (no more curb side)
stop all non-critical construction and infrastructure


----------



## OptsyEagle

If you make gathering outside illegal it will just push the more dangerous culprits inside. Please tell me someone pointed that out to him. It is not a big leap of human nature understanding.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Gathering in that manner is already prohibited under the lockdown restrictions, so a curfew changes nothing.
> doesn't matter if it's 11am or 11pm, it's not permitted.
> 
> So implementing a curfew changes nothing, but hey people love do nothing policies.


Doug has been pretending to implement measures to reduce spread. Doug dragged his heels taking action despite calamitous modeling. He chose to wink wink nudge nudge not enforce masking and distancing rules at workplaces and job sites.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> These are the rumoured new restrictions in Ontario
> 
> No outdoor social gathering with people outside your household (no more walks in the park with friends/family)
> no weddings or funeral attendance
> close all non-essential retail (no more curb side)
> stop all non-critical construction and infrastructure


I thought social gatherings were already prohibited.
-Weddings & funerals are a social gathering.

I don't see how curbside spreads. But if things don't start to slow 2 weeks after easter, we'll have to consider this.

I agree on suspending non critical construction, but if it's more than a few days, it will start to make a mess.
Though construction sites are hard to keep clean at the best of times, right now I think they're primed for spreading.


----------



## andrewf

It's a shame Christine Elliott is not premier. I think she would be doing a much better job.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Though construction sites are hard to keep clean at the best of times, right now I think they're primed for spreading.


It's not really a matter of fomites. It is being in close proximity with lax mask compliance. 

Think about the construction elevators that bring workers to upper floors of condos under construction. Do you think they are still only sending 1 or 2 people up at time?


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> It's a shame Christine Elliott is not premier. I think she would be doing a much better job.


I agree, I think she would be a better premier, and to Dougs credit she's the deputy Premier and Minister of health.
Just like Trudeau and Freeland.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> It's not really a matter of fomites. It is being in close proximity with lax mask compliance.
> 
> Think about the construction elevators that bring workers to upper floors of condos under construction. Do you think they are still only sending 1 or 2 people up at time?


I just saw half a dozen roofers, no masks, unattached safety harnesses, and its 4°C outside right now, with a light drizzle.

Some of those guys are going to end up in the ER one way or another.

Construction safety has always been a problem with labour safety. I know a guy who was a site supervisor (residential construction), and he was good.
One day he went to the site, write them up, then 3 hours later got a call that the inspector was laying charges for violations. The very violations he just wrote them up for.

Even without COVID many people blatantly ignore the safety laws. With hospitals at capacity, I think we have to consider shutting them down.


----------



## Beaver101

Workers fired after attending party involving stripper at home under construction in Milton

How about the dumbassed contractor(s) working for this home development company. Guess, it just speeded up that industry shutdown.


----------



## andrewf

Beaver101 said:


> Workers fired after attending party involving stripper at home under construction in Milton
> 
> How about the dumbassed contractor(s) working for this home development company. Guess, it just speeded up that industry shutdown.


Where are the fines, Doug?


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> You can't gather with friends or have a party now, having an 8pm curfew doesn't change anything.


It does have an effect. In the big cities, it's pretty hard to tell that there's an illegal gathering inside a house unless there's a complaint about noise. Police can't walk from door to door. They can't enter people's houses.

But police can easily stop you on the road or sidewalk and ask you where are you going, when it's past 8 PM.

And anyways, why are you so much against a curfew? What's so important you want to do between 8 PM and 5 AM? Personally, even without a curfew I'm always at home during those hours... unless I'm out to the restaurant, to see friends, to go to a show, etc. Which are all things we can't do at the moment anyways.


----------



## cainvest

MrBlackhill said:


> But police can easily stop you on the road or sidewalk and ask you where are you going, when it's past 8 PM.


A curfew would suck for me, I do all my shopping past 8pm when the stores are basically empty.


----------



## MrBlackhill

cainvest said:


> A curfew would suck for me, I do all my shopping past 8pm when the stores are basically empty.


Yes, that was also my case. Not a big of an adaptation though. I just go to the grocery stores the day before payday. Or, thanks to working from home, I just go during the day or in the morning before I start my day.


----------



## andrewf

MrBlackhill said:


> Yes, that was also my case. Not a big of an adaptation though. I just go to the grocery stores the day before payday. Or, thanks to working from home, I just go during the day or in the morning before I start my day.


It's hard for people to get groceries after work if they are trying to avoid stores on the weekend. Maybe a 10pm curfew would make sense. 

I also like to get out for walks or bike rides in the evening.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> It does have an effect. In the big cities, it's pretty hard to tell that there's an illegal gathering inside a house unless there's a complaint about noise. Police can't walk from door to door. They can't enter people's houses.
> 
> But police can easily stop you on the road or sidewalk and ask you where are you going, when it's past 8 PM.
> 
> And anyways, why are you so much against a curfew? What's so important you want to do between 8 PM and 5 AM? Personally, even without a curfew I'm always at home during those hours... unless I'm out to the restaurant, to see friends, to go to a show, etc. Which are all things we can't do at the moment anyways.


I'm not "against" a curfew, I think it's a grandstanding non action that will accomplish nothing. 
I'm not a fan of government in"action" like this

Unless I'm doing the permitted activities, I'm home anyway, curfew or not.


----------



## agent99

Money172375 said:


> These are the rumoured new restrictions in Ontario
> 
> No outdoor social gathering with people outside your household (no more walks in the park with friends/family)
> no weddings or funeral attendance
> close all non-essential retail (no more curb side)
> stop all non-critical construction and infrastructure


Once the press digest the new rules, we will hopefully get a simple and understandable list. But then it will probably change again! 
I called a bicycle shop yesterday because I needed tubes and rim tape. They said to just come over, the store is open. (Bikes are vehicles it seems)


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> It's hard for people to get groceries after work if they are trying to avoid stores on the weekend. Maybe a 10pm curfew would make sense.
> 
> I also like to get out for walks or bike rides in the evening.


I think more open hours would help spread out the congestion at the stores, which would be good.
But Costco was very light, as was what I saw of walmart. The restriction to only essentials is really slowing things down.

As far as late night exercise, I can appreciate it, the thing I love about the winter is how few people there are, and the sidewalks are normally empty late at night.

I think letting police stop people and ask what they're up to is an important part.








Ontario gives police authority to stop people, vehicles, ask purpose of travel


Ontario announced Friday that police will have the authority to stop vehicles and ask individuals why they left their residence as part of the new measures introduced to curb the spread of COVID-19.



toronto.ctvnews.ca





I don't like it, but something has to be done, I'm seeing large groups congregating. With our case counts these could easily be superspreading events.


----------



## Money172375

This has always been about enforcement. Until the public personally knows someone who is ticketed, not much will change.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I think more open hours would help spread out the congestion at the stores, which would be good.
> But Costco was very light, as was what I saw of walmart. The restriction to only essentials is really slowing things down.
> 
> As far as late night exercise, I can appreciate it, the thing I love about the winter is how few people there are, and the sidewalks are normally empty late at night.
> 
> I think letting police stop people and ask what they're up to is an important part.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario gives police authority to stop people, vehicles, ask purpose of travel
> 
> 
> Ontario announced Friday that police will have the authority to stop vehicles and ask individuals why they left their residence as part of the new measures introduced to curb the spread of COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I don't like it, but something has to be done, I'm seeing large groups congregating. With our case counts these could easily be superspreading events.


Seems like they should be focusing on the crazy anti-maskers rather than persecuting people out for a jog.


----------



## Mukhang pera




----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> This has always been about enforcement. Until the public personally knows someone who is ticketed, not much will change.


But people don't like enforcement, and while I am a strong supporter of civil rights, the various advocacy groups are already advancing "discrimination" claims, and various police forces are saying they won't engage in random stops.


----------



## Money172375

So Ford has already backtracked from yesterday’s new restrictions. Police will not be stopping people randomly to see where they’re going. And playgrounds can remain open. 
just need other outdoor recreation facilities to open up. Low risk in golf and tennis.


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> So Ford has already backtracked from yesterday’s new restrictions. Police will not be stopping people randomly to see where they’re going. And playgrounds can remain open.
> just need other outdoor recreation facilities to open up. Low risk in golf and tennis.


On the other hand, relatively few people are up in arms over tennis & golf so he may not bend to pressure on those.


----------



## Money172375

My friends quote...”Ford is the type of guy who insists on making the last person he spoke to, happy”.

feel like there’s a bit of truth here....he seems like a jovial guy who wants to make everyone happy, even if that Is ultimately not in their best interest. He’s a little goofy at times and not a great orator. Maybe some would call him “plain spoken”. Not overtly critiquing his management of the pandemic, but he doesn’t inspire confidence. Not many of our leaders do these days.


----------



## Money172375

I haven’t looked at global numbers for awhile and I ditched CNN awhile ago. The US numbers are crazy. 

32 million cases!


----------



## sags

That is a list that Canada doesn't want to be on.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> That is a list that Canada doesn't want to be on.


Every country is on that list, it's one of the most comprehensive datasets.
Note, Canada is 63 on Deaths per 1M, which puts us slightly above the global average (81.5), and we're at roughly 1/3 the deaths of the US, or UK, well below France and Italy, even below Germany.








Coronavirus Update (Live): 115,549,034 Cases and 2,565,030 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




www.worldometers.info





By deaths/1M, Canada is doing quite well, if we can keep it up, combined with a good vaccination rollout we could do comparitively well.


----------



## Beaver101

Mixing politics and the pandemic, here in Ontario, Canada:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/brampton-...d-sick-leave-225601123.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink

Seems like victims of Covid are getting younger. Tragic.

Added: Looks like another boondoggle coming ... only it's coming from Ontario's Cons this time:

Details about Ford government's paid sick leave program unclear as solicitor general calls on feds to 'do the right thing'



> _*The province's solicitor general says she is unable to provide a timeline for when the Ford government will unveil its plan to improve paid sick leave for Ontario workers.*
> 
> Last week, Premier Doug F*ord promised that his government would soon release information about a long-awaited provincial paid sick leave* program, which he claimed would be *"the best program anywhere in North America, bar none." *_...


 ... comical. And why is the Solicitor General involved in this, all of a sudden? Resurfacing from a rock?


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Every country is on that list, it's one of the most comprehensive datasets.
> Note, Canada is 63 on Deaths per 1M, which puts us slightly above the global average (81.5), and we're at roughly 1/3 the deaths of the US, or UK, well below France and Italy, even below Germany.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Update (Live): 115,549,034 Cases and 2,565,030 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> By deaths/1M, Canada is doing quite well, if we can keep it up, combined with a good vaccination rollout we could do comparitively well.


That doesn't fit the narrative, though. Canada is terrible.

Don't get me wrong, Canada could have done much better and we made many mistakes, but compared to peers we did fairly well.


----------



## zinfit

ELI Lilly along with a Canadian partner has developed a proven anti viral treatment for covid . IT is particularly effective in treating mild and medium cases of covid. It has been approved in Canada but it hasn't been used and 25,000 plus doses are sitting in storage because of administrative roadblocks. Just seems like a crazy situation especially in view of the rising number of hospitalizations.


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> ELI Lilly along with a Canadian partner has developed a proven anti viral treatment for covid . IT is particularly effective in treating mild and medium cases of covid. It has been approved in Canada but it hasn't been used and 25,000 plus doses are sitting in storage because of administrative roadblocks. Just seems like a crazy situation especially in view of the rising number of hospitalizations.


Yes, the problem is that the treatment works for people not quite sick enough to require hospitalization, but it needs to be administered in the hospital. Bit of a catch 22 there.

Honestly I think this would be a great use for the field hospitals in hard hit area, if we had the staff for it.
I don't know how far 25k doses could go, but if it could stop even a few hundred Hospitalizations and ICUs that could help.
Unfortunately it will put even more load on our overworked hospitals. Perhaps the backup caregivers from the military and NL could run this. If they ran it parallel, it could take load off.


----------



## sags

I got my Pfizer shot on a Sunday afternoon and it was administered by a young local doctor with her own practice.

We are already tapping the well of volunteers to administer vaccine shots. One wonders how many good ideas can't be implemented because of a lack of qualified people. Our local community college is offering free tuition to train healthcare workers......which is a good thing. The problem is going to be that they are public servants and the tax payers bear the full cost when they are employed somewhere. Money....money....money.........is always involved.

It must be very frustrating for government officials to run into roadblock after roadblock. They order vaccines and get told the manufacturing problems will delay the shipments.

They are told we "could" do this but lack staff. We could do that but lack the legal authority. If we do this........then that will happen. It must be very disheartening and tiresome.

Looking at some of our leaders......they look exhausted. It has been a tough slog for everyone.

Hopefully the vaccines will be the solution but it all depends on what the virus does next.


----------



## Covariance

Does anyone have an explanation of the paid sick day issue as it relates to compensating people that can't work if they get COVID? I don't follow why it shouldn't just come from Unemployment Insurance premiums we all pay/paid into that the Feds collect. Why is it a Provincial issue to solve? The Feds have rolled out program after program but keep pushing it back to the Provinces.


----------



## sags

The Fed program covers if their workplace is shut down due to COVID. 

The Provincial program would cover individuals who get COVID but their workplace is still open.


----------



## Covariance

sags said:


> The Fed program covers if their workplace is shut down due to COVID.
> 
> The Provincial program would cover individuals who get COVID but their workplace is still open.


This is helpful. Thank you. But why don't the Feds just step up and cover these people? Trying to understand why they wouldn't just cover this when they have rolled out so many other programs covering lost employment wages.


----------



## sags

Whoopsie.........the Ford government just announced an offer to "double" the Federal benefit if the Feds administer the program.

So instead of $500 a week a person would receive $1000.........less $200 in withholding tax, so $800 a week up to 4 weeks.

That would be a much cheaper option for the Ford government. We will see if the Feds accept.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Looks like it's gonna be a game of ping-pong between the feds and the province:

COVID-19 news today: Trudeau says Ontario sick leave should be delivered directly through employers



> _Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Ottawa is in talks with Ontario as the province looks to provide paid sick days to workers,* but stressed that such leave should be delivered directly through employers.
> 
> The prime minister says Ontario should work through provincially regulated businesses to implement a sick-leave program,* as his government did with federally regulated workplaces.
> 
> His comments echo a statement by a spokeswoman for Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who said earlier today that Ottawa will help when Ontario is ready to mandate a sick-leave program for provincially regulated businesses.
> 
> Ontario is offering to double a federal sick-leave benefit if Ottawa can administer the topped-up payment to workers in the province.
> 
> ..._


 ... pretty well looks like the same game some employers (management) play. Now the invention of a 3 players ping-pong game or 3-bozos-on-a-carousel.


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> Every country is on that list, it's one of the most comprehensive datasets.
> Note, Canada is 63 on Deaths per 1M, which puts us slightly above the global average (81.5), and we're at roughly 1/3 the deaths of the US, or UK, well below France and Italy, even below Germany.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Update (Live): 115,549,034 Cases and 2,565,030 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> By deaths/1M, Canada is doing quite well, if we can keep it up, combined with a good vaccination rollout we could do comparitively well.


Am I reading the charts wrong? I am reading its 633 deaths/ 1 M which is better than many countries that you listed. However it's 4 times more than India which I would not want to anywhere near. I find it very interesting how the westerns countries are so much further behind than asian countries like Singapore, HK, Taiwan, Japan.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> Am I reading the charts wrong? I am reading its 633 deaths/ 1 M which is better than many countries that you listed. However it's 4 times more than India which I would not want to anywhere near. I find it very interesting how the westerns countries are so much further behind than asian countries like Singapore, HK, Taiwan, Japan.


Yes, you're reading them right, as far as modern western countries, we've done exceptionally well.

Asian culture is different, also their governments are much more assertive. Signapore bans chewing gum and has corporal punishment (caning).
Their concept of human rights is very different.

Also I think that Singapore, Taiwan and Japan data is likely decent.


----------



## cainvest

Just took a quick look at the new cases vs deaths for Canada. Sure looks like the vaccines are working as the deaths are remaining fairly low while the new cases are near an all time high.


----------



## andrewf

Apparently schools are a big vector of spread:









Largest COVID-19 contact tracing study to date finds children key to spread, evidence of superspreaders


Researchers from the Princeton Environmental Institute find the continued spread of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is driven by only a small percentage of those who become infected.




www.princeton.edu


----------



## andrewf

cainvest said:


> Just took a quick look at the new cases vs deaths for Canada. Sure looks like the vaccines are working as the deaths are remaining fairly low while the new cases are near an all time high.


The dynamic may change. COVID doesn't kill people quickly anymore as it is younger people getting sick and being hospitalized. Maybe there will be a bigger lag from infection to deaths, or the deaths are more indirect because COVID soaks up hospital resources that lead to deteriorating care for other illnesses (cancer, heart disease, etc.).


----------



## Money172375

andrewf said:


> Apparently schools are a big vector of spread:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Largest COVID-19 contact tracing study to date finds children key to spread, evidence of superspreaders
> 
> 
> Researchers from the Princeton Environmental Institute find the continued spread of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is driven by only a small percentage of those who become infected.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.princeton.edu


in India


----------



## andrewf

Last I checked, Indians are still humans.



> “Kids are very efficient transmitters in this setting, which is something that hasn’t been firmly established in previous studies,” Laxminarayan said. “We found that reported cases and deaths have been more concentrated in younger cohorts than we expected based on observations in higher-income countries.”
> 
> Children and young adults were much more likely to contract coronavirus from people their own age, the study found. Across all age groups, people had a greater chance of catching the coronavirus from someone their own age. The overall probability of catching coronavirus ranged from 4.7% for low-risk contacts up to 10.7% for high-risk contacts.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Apparently schools are a big vector of spread:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Largest COVID-19 contact tracing study to date finds children key to spread, evidence of superspreaders
> 
> 
> Researchers from the Princeton Environmental Institute find the continued spread of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is driven by only a small percentage of those who become infected.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.princeton.edu


The article doesn't even have the word "school" in it. So how can you come to the conclusion that schools are a big vector?

The Ontario asymptomatic testing, and reporting shows schools aren't spreading.

In fact the argument to keep schools open was to keep kids from congregating in households, where they spread COVID19 at a higher rate. Your article actually supports this.
"Furthermore, children and young adults were found to be potentially much more important to transmitting the virus — especially within households —"


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> The dynamic may change. COVID doesn't kill people quickly anymore as it is younger people getting sick and being hospitalized. Maybe there will be a bigger lag from infection to deaths, or the deaths are more indirect because COVID soaks up hospital resources that lead to deteriorating care for other illnesses (cancer, heart disease, etc.).


Possibly, but I'm not seeing those numbers (young vs old) change significanltly yet. Also the death rate for anyone under 40 is it 0.4% vs over 8.0% for 60+. On the negative side, two deaths today for people in the 20's here in MB.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Possibly, but I'm not seeing those numbers (young vs old) change significanltly yet. Also the death rate for anyone under 40 is it 0.4% vs over 8.0% for 60+. On the negative side, two deaths today for people in the 20's here in MB.


That is because you are not looking at it correctly. The older will always be dying at higher infection rates then the younger. The correct observation is how many more younger people are dying now, compared to how many were dying before. That number has undoubtedly gone up. Not the rate. The number. The variants are increasing the number.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> The correct observation is how many more younger people are dying now, compared to how many were dying before. That number has undoubtedly gone up.


Not sure I follow ... If the percentage of those infected with covid vs the number deaths in that age group remains the same then the only thing that would cause more deaths is more of them getting infected right?


----------



## MrMatt

I think the question is number of deaths.
Death rate is a nice thing to help figure out how to allocate resources more efficiently.

Honestly if the rate is low enough, we should stop caring.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Not sure I follow ... If the percentage of those infected with covid vs the number deaths in that age group remains the same then the only thing that would cause more deaths is more of them getting infected right?


Now you get it. The variants are more infectious AND more virulent. Both aspects need to be considered when addressing a change to outcomes for young people.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Now you get it. The variants are more infectious AND more virulent. Both aspects need to be considered when addressing a change to outcomes for young people.


But that's the numbers I was going but maybe because they are a week behind it's just not showing up yet in the Canada stats?


----------



## zinfit

Just curious . I note that Alberta has a 144 people in ICU . That is for a population in excess of 4 million. The authorities are claiming we are close to capacity. The Texas county that I winter has a population of 1 million and at the peak periods they had 400 people in ICU . Just wondering about the metrics. Perhaps the Canadian system is designed to deal with the normal past experience for ICUs and was never designed for the black swann event? The US system is a profit motivated system in which very large amounts of money are extracted from patients and governments . The result is a large over capacity of beds and ICU units.? Service in the US system is fast with very short wait times. The system therefore needs over capacity too meet that standard. The Canadian system is rationalized to keep control of costs so we generally have to wait our turn for service which means wait times.. I am in the cue for knee replacement and I think my wait time will be 2 years. I am just speculating may-be someone can get some real data on this.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I think the question is number of deaths.
> Death rate is a nice thing to help figure out how to allocate resources more efficiently.
> 
> Honestly if the rate is low enough, we should stop caring.


Well, it's not "dead or perfectly fine". There is a whole range of persistent negative health effects that I don't think we should be blase about. Many people who experience long term ICU stays with intubation tend to become long-term disabled.


----------



## andrewf

There are also some variations in what is defined as an 'ICU bed'. Different jurisdictions may use different standards to define them.


----------



## Beaver101

A cautionary COVID-19 tale: Sardinia’s ride from Italy’s lowest- to highest-risk region – in three weeks

Premature victory possibly leading to long term pain.


----------



## Beaver101

Maybe this is in hindsight but Ontario should take a cue from Quebec, one of its populated neighbour:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-quebec-covid-third-wave-vaccination-1.6006078


----------



## sags

Sardinia isn't the only example of where the virus appeared defeated, restrictions were relaxed and the virus came storming back.

People are declaring victory over an enemy that lurks in the background, mutates to avoid all defenses, and has thus far proven to be invincible.


----------



## james4beach

Here's an episode of Day 6 which starts with an interview about how Australia handles COVID-19. When you click the link, you can dismiss (x) the first dialog box, and you'll get straight to the audio.



https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-14/clip/15824640



In Australia, when there is an outbreak in a city (meaning any small number of cases) they lock it all down *hard*. Travel is limited to within 5 km of home, only for essential needs. They shut down all events. Inter-provincial travel is restricted.

e.g. Perth (population of 2.1 million) got a single COVID case, and everything went into hard lockdown. Why? Because this way you can extinguish it... and the severe lockdown doesn't have to last very long.

Canada on the other hand kept trying to leave businesses and industry open, schools open, inter provincial travel open, and never worked at stamping out all cases in a city. Plus allowing foreign tourists!


----------



## Beaver101

^ That's why the pandemic is going to be proloooonged for Canadians. A case of short term gain for long term pain.


----------



## sags

Our population will only be "partially" vaccinated. 

We need to keep the restrictions until we have full vaccinations and the virus beaten. We don't want to be the next India.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Our population will only be "partially" vaccinated.
> 
> We need to keep the restrictions until we have full vaccinations and the virus beaten. We don't want to be the next India.


Agreed, we need to keep distancing measures in place probably until the end of summer. But if we can reduce hospitalizations quickly enough we start to recover from the huge backlog of surgeries we've accumulated.


----------



## sags

Agreed, and the health care professionals need a well deserved break. 

The backlog in healthcare extends into diagnostic testing and treatments as well, and that creates the possibility of poorer outcomes for patients.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Our population will only be "partially" vaccinated.
> 
> We need to keep the restrictions until we have full vaccinations and the virus beaten. We don't want to be the next India.


We're unlikely to have "full vaccinations" for years, if ever.
Globally, until we get India and Brazil under control, they'll bit spitting out variants like crazy.


----------



## andrewf

Yes. I think we're not near the end of the pandemic yet. We're maybe near the beginning of the end, which for us will start mid-summer maybe. But we're not going to be fully back to pre-pandemic normal for well over a year until the bulk of the world can be vaccinated. Worst case we get a vaccine escapee strain, though hopefully we will have learned enough to be ruthless in preventing it from spreading and not try our existing (failing) 'co-existance' approach of just managing the virus.


----------



## cainvest

Canada numbers came up for this week (April 30) and so far ...


Hospitalizations are slightly down for all age groups
ICU numbers are slightly up for all age groups

Not sure how far this information lags current provincial reporting.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Canada numbers came up for this week (April 30) and so far ...
> 
> 
> Hospitalizations are slightly down for all age groups
> ICU numbers are slightly up for all age groups
> 
> Not sure how far this information lags current provincial reporting.


Probably not much, all the "important" indicators lag a bit, but if it continues, we might be flattening the Ontario wave, hopefully we get past it


----------



## sags

The "beginning of the end" seems a good way to sum it up.

Our leaders have to be vigilant and maintain restrictions. They have to ignore the pressure to re-open too early.

That has been a disaster wherever it has been tried, and resulted in unnecessary outbreaks and deaths.

Interesting that India's PM had declared victory over the virus only months ago. I wonder if some US States are falling into the same trap now.

Time will tell.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Interesting that India's PM had declared victory over the virus only months ago. I wonder if some US States are falling into the same trap now.
> 
> Time will tell.


Yes, just like our PM who is delusional thinking people are fully vaccinated with one shot. In Canada only about 2.1 percent are fully vaccinated - much like India with its 1.6 percent fully vaccinated. That's where the failure is.

Compare this to 30 percent of US people who are fully vaccinated. They'll be fine since they understand how to read a medicine bottle.

ltr


----------



## cainvest

like_to_retire said:


> Yes, just like our PM who is delusional thinking people are fully vaccinated with one shot. In Canada only about 2.1 percent are fully vaccinated - much like India with its 1.6 percent fully vaccinated. That's where the failure is.


For single dose, Canada is at 32%, India is only at 9% so we're doing good ... no failure here.


----------



## MrMatt

like_to_retire said:


> Yes, just like our PM who is delusional thinking people are fully vaccinated with one shot. In Canada only about 2.1 percent are fully vaccinated - much like India with its 1.6 percent fully vaccinated. That's where the failure is.
> 
> Compare this to 30 percent of US people who are fully vaccinated. They'll be fine since they understand how to read a medicine bottle.
> 
> ltr


I think Trudeau is horrible.

However, I think the decision to increase dose interval has turned out to be the correct decision.
Single dose provides most of the benefit, for a while (Data past 3 months is looking good, highly dependant on the vaccine)

Now you can argue with 2 doses to the very high risk vs 1 dose to the very low risk.
But the idea of giving everyone in the middle (ie 30-60) a single shot as quickly as possible is now looking like the right call. 
Though since the data wasn't there at the the time, I didn't support this decision, it is clearly the right choice.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> I think Trudeau is horrible.
> 
> However, I think the decision to increase dose interval has turned out to be the correct decision.
> Single dose provides most of the benefit, for a while (Data past 3 months is looking good, highly dependant on the vaccine)
> 
> Now you can argue with 2 doses to the very high risk vs 1 dose to the very low risk.
> But the idea of giving everyone in the middle (ie 30-60) a single shot as quickly as possible is now looking like the right call.
> Though since the data wasn't there at the the time, I didn't support this decision, it is clearly the right choice.


I believe Quebec and BC moved in that direction before the Ottawa foot draggers decided it was a good idea.


----------



## sags

Alberta now has the worst infection rate in all of North America.

Nova Scotia and New Brunswick have outbreaks and one patient who had been vaccinated died from the SA variant.

More reports of people dying at home before they get to the hospital. Some didn't know they have COVID and deteriorated quickly.

Watch closely for symptoms and ANY problems breathing or getting dizzy.........call 911 right away. 

They can come to your home and test or supply oxygen immediately.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Alberta now has the worst infection rate in all of North America.
> 
> Watch closely for symptoms and ANY problems breathing or getting dizzy.........call 911 right away.


Calm the F down.
Alberta only has the worst rate because they're at their highest peak, which is still far below the peak for US states. 

Yes it's a problem, yes it's serious, but sheesh, it isnt' the end of the world, they're not even doing that bad in comparison to everyone elses spikes


----------



## sags

Alberta's doctors say the situation is "out of control". Kenney has finally announced restrictions and hopefully will enforce them.

_"We will not permit our health-care system to be overwhelmed. *We must not, and we will not force our doctors and nurses to decide who gets care, and who doesn't.* And that is why we must act now to stop the spike." _

PM Trudeau has stepped up and offered Alberta help to get the situation under control.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-covid-restrictions-1.6013160


----------



## robfordlives

Well now things like outdoor sports are banned in Alberta unless it is with someone else in your house and limited to two. This is how you loose people.


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> Calm the F down.
> Alberta only has the worst rate because they're at their highest peak, which is still far below the peak for US states.
> 
> Yes it's a problem, yes it's serious, but sheesh, it isnt' the end of the world, they're not even doing that bad in comparison to everyone elses spikes


As an Albertan, it's pretty f'ing bad here. We have the worst infection rate in North American - that includes the US. 

The positivity rate is just over 12% maybe more now. I believe we have the highest number of idiots per capita too. 
The stupid things I read and see are honestly going to put the people who are trying their best over the edge. We have multiple church ministers who have been shut down, fined, and charged because they run at packed capacity. There was almost a riot when they gated the church. We have 3000+ idiots who attended a rodeo. One of them is the anti masking, religious family with 6 kids whom one of them is on my kids sports team. I don't want anything to do with that family even. 

As much as I think the federal government has botched up the vaccines and some many ways, I almost welcome the military help to get things under control. That's pretty bad when I would rather take my chances with Trudeau screwing something up than Kenney. I even voted for Kenney. 

I am willing to put out with the lock down and restrictions, if they would f'ing enforce the restrictions. I have to pay a hundred of dollars a week to support my kid for her counselling because of all of this. I will continue to do that, but for f' sakes, do what you said and enforce the rules. 

I think I had mentioned that Asian countries are doing very well. It's because they enforce the rules. I have alot of experience with these countries, and can tell you, in times like a pandemic, I would welcomes some enforcement. 

It's not the end of the world, but it is a sh!t show.


----------



## Beaver101

robfordlives said:


> Well now things like outdoor sports are banned in Alberta *unless it is with someone else in your house and limited to two.* This is how you loose people.


 ... that ain't so bad as compared to Ontario:

Outdoor recreational facilities to stay closed until cases drop: minister



> _TORONTO -- Ontario's closure of outdoor recreational facilities will remain in place until COVID-19 cases decline significantly, the government said Tuesday.
> 
> Health Minister Christine Elliott said the province currently has no timeline for the reopening of facilities such as tennis courts and golf courses.
> 
> "We need to limit our mobility as much as possible to reduce transmission and we are going to be assessing this," she said. ._..


 ... and of course, the golf fanatics are having mental freak-outs.


----------



## james4beach

Plugging Along said:


> As an Albertan, it's pretty f'ing bad here. We have the worst infection rate in North American - that includes the US.
> 
> The positivity rate is just over 12% maybe more now. I believe we have the highest number of idiots per capita too.


I feel for you guys and I hope things improve soon. It really does look very bad in Alberta.



Plugging Along said:


> I am willing to put out with the lock down and restrictions, if they would f'ing enforce the restrictions.


Agree, they have to enforce the rules.


----------



## Bananatron

Kenney literally plugged his ears, closed his eyes and "lalala'd" his way through these past 6 weeks. Just hoping that the problem would go away rather than taking action against it. What a mess this province is. 

I was talking to my neighbor about this and we figured a big driver for this reckless behavior is that most people still don't know someone that was affected severely by covid, but almost everyone knows someone who got the flu or less for symptoms. 

It enforces the notion that it's overblown and an overreaction - even though if any kind of critical thought was applied you would know this wasn't true.


----------



## james4beach

Bananatron said:


> Kenney literally plugged his ears, closed his eyes and "lalala'd" his way through these past 6 weeks. Just hoping that the problem would go away rather than taking action against it. What a mess this province is.


It's disgusting actually. I don't know what's wrong with this guy... is it just because he's insanely pro-business and doesn't want to close anything?

Ford in Ontario did the same kind of thing. Ignored medical experts, but huffs and puffs a lot (to sound "tough on COVID") but doesn't shut down businesses like is required, until it's waaaaay too late.

Stay safe out there.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> As an Albertan, it's pretty f'ing bad here. We have the worst infection rate in North American - that includes the US.


Yes, today they have the worst rate, but I think if you look at peak rate, or total cases, Alberta has lower rates than every state except hawaii.

Yes it's a problem, and yes their numbers are the worst in Canada, but many US states had peaks nearly twice as high.
That being said, I think this wave, combined with COVID fatigue is going to be problematic.

If anyone in North America gets a vaccine resistant variant, we're in trouble.
If the Pfizer is weak, it's a huge problem, since I think that is the more common vaccine.


----------



## Money172375

robfordlives said:


> Well now things like outdoor sports are banned in Alberta unless it is with someone else in your house and limited to two. This is how you loose people.


Outdoor rec has been banned in Ontario for a few weeks now. Can’t even play tennis with a household member.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> It's disgusting actually. I don't know what's wrong with this guy... is it just because he's insanely pro-business and doesn't want to close anything?
> 
> Ford in Ontario did the same kind of thing. Ignored medical experts, but huffs and puffs a lot (to sound "tough on COVID") but doesn't shut down businesses like is required,* until it's waaaaay too late.*
> 
> Stay safe out there.


 ... that's because politicians are NOT medical personnel but they do die too!


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> Yes, today they have the worst rate, but I think if you look at peak rate, or total cases, Alberta has lower rates than every state except hawaii.
> 
> Yes it's a problem, and yes their numbers are the worst in Canada, but many US states had peaks nearly twice as high.
> That being said, I think this wave, combined with COVID fatigue is going to be problematic.
> 
> If anyone in North America gets a vaccine resistant variant, we're in trouble.
> If the Pfizer is weak, it's a huge problem, since I think that is the more common vaccine.


That's the thing, I can pick and choose what stats I look at, or what point in time. It really doesn't matter. The fact is, today, Alberta is a mess. I personally don't care what's going on in Hawaii or anywhere else. I care that my family has been working our *** off and its gotten to the worst situation. The fact that it is getting worse and more things are being shut it was is important to me. 

Yes, the US, had twice as high peaks, that's supposed to change things in Alberta how? That makes things worse as I think the US totally mishandled COVID in the beginning, so is that what Alberta is going to be like? At this point in time, we should not be going into these peeks.

I could say it would be worse, and I could be in India, but then Alberta's infection rate is currently twice that of India's. The point of my rant is that after all of this effort and time, seeing that the beginning to the end should almost be here, it's not.


----------



## sags

Some of these Premiers created the mess they are in.

They reinforced the false belief that science was corrupt and medicine wasn't to be trusted.

They gave a wink and a nod to people who violated any restrictions they did reluctantly implement.

Doug Ford started out that way, but then he realized what was happening with COVID and pivoted to more restrictions.

As a result, he has faced unrelenting criticism in the conservative SUN media for the restrictions.

The Federal Conservatives haven't helped the situation either. They continually reinforce removing all restrictions.

Now these same Premiers are begging people to follow new restrictions or face a catastrophic breakdown of the healthcare system.

When the pandemic waned in Ontario, my wife's employer in the retirement home told them they would return to their pre-pandemic work schedules.

It was a welcome relief to the worn out workers, but it didn't last long. Already they are back to working every day if they are able.

The workers are exhausted and going off sick, which is making the situation worse. Time off now is a luxury as part timers fill in the gaps every day.

I can only imagine how weary the doctors, nurses, paramedics, cleaners........are right now. They have been at this intense level for over a year.

Now I see that Alberta's neighbor Saskatchewan is talking about removing restrictions and opening up again.

We need a national lock down, but the Provinces will not give up their authority to do so.


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> Now I see that Alberta's neighbor Saskatchewan is talking about removing restrictions and opening up again.


If we can't base reopening plans on vaccination and infection levels (which Saskatchewan is following the uk model of staged reopenings), what metrics can we use?


----------



## Beaver101

^ Make your own accordingly (aka a politician with common sense and human compassions).


----------



## sags

I would wait until Alberta gains control over the virus before opening.


----------



## OptsyEagle




----------



## Numbersman61

Bananatron said:


> Kenney literally plugged his ears, closed his eyes and "lalala'd" his way through these past 6 weeks. Just hoping that the problem would go away rather than taking action against it. What a mess this province is.
> 
> I was talking to my neighbor about this and we figured a big driver for this reckless behavior is that most people still don't know someone that was affected severely by covid, but almost everyone knows someone who got the flu or less for symptoms.
> 
> It enforces the notion that it's overblown and an overreaction - even though if any kind of critical thought was applied you would know this wasn't true.


Kenney has a bunch of idiots in his caucus - a few weeks ago, 17 of them wrote an open letter criticizing him for implementing limited restrictions. They said the restrictions were too tough just as the numbers were going up. I wrote my MLA who signed the letter telling him he lost my vote.


----------



## sags

As I read Saskatchewan is considering removing restrictions, a doctor was on CBC saying that Saskatoon is seeing a surge in cases and Regina is out of control.

Don't the politicians talk to the doctors in the ER and ICUs ? They say they are experiencing younger patients who are sicker than before.

There is so much conflicting information from different sources, people are confused on what is going on and what they are supposed to do.


----------



## sags

Listening to the head doctor from Nova Scotia, their situation relates well to Provinces like Saskatchewan.

Low numbers of infections.......but comparatively low numbers of ICU beds as well.

They can create more ICU beds.......but not more doctors, nurses, respiratory doctors to care for the patients in those beds.

My brother in law lives in Saskatchewan near the Alberta border and routinely has to travel 2 hours to Saskatoon for medical treatments.

Small rural medical centres don't have ICU beds, ventilators, and all the staff that is required to treat very sick COVID patients.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> As I read Saskatchewan is considering removing restrictions, a doctor was on CBC saying that Saskatoon is seeing a big increase in cases and Regina is out of control.
> 
> Don't the politicians talk to the doctors in the ER and ICUs ? They say they are experiencing younger patients who are sicker than before.
> 
> There is so much conflicting information from different sources, people are confused on what is going on and what they are supposed to do.


Well yeah, they talk, but there are many people with different concerns.

NACI doubled down on its position that the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were “preferred” over the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca shots, and that Canadians should weigh the risks before they decide which one to receive.

But Tam & Trudeau say AZ is fine, and you should just get whatever vaccine you can.

So who's right, the Federal Government, or the National Advisory Council on Immunizations (ie the experts)

The real world isn't simple, so we have a choice.
Admit it is complicated with a lot going on, and sometimes experts will disagree, or decide to appoint someone the dictator, and silence all dissent.

As a liberal, I'm for free speech.

Also I agree with Trudeau, and think the NACI statement was poorly presented/reported to the public.

I do not think that the NACI or Trudeau deviating is COVID19 misinformation, however this is the exact type of situation I'm concerned with when the governments or tech companies want to block "disinformation"


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Listening to the head doctor from Nova Scotia, their situation relates well to Provinces like Saskatchewan.
> 
> Low numbers of infections.......but comparatively low numbers of ICU beds as well.
> 
> They can create more ICU beds.......but not more doctors, nurses, respiratory doctors to care for the patients in those beds.
> 
> My brother in law lives in Saskatchewan near the Alberta border and routinely has to travel 2 hours to Saskatoon for medical treatments.
> 
> Small rural medical centres don't have ICU beds, ventilators, and all the staff that is required to treat very sick COVID patients.


That's why a Federal government policy wouldn't be able to address the needs of small rural centers, and big cities, and all the stuff in between, without becoming too complex for people to understand.
That's why in Ontario, the health units will interpret simplify.

That's why Ontario allowed logitistics businesses, but Peel Health shut down some shifts at places like Amazon.
It's all about reacting properly to the actual situation, something that someone far away in Ottawa is ill equipped, and poorly motivated to do.

The people in the community have a vested interest in making the right decision, some faraway paper pusher doesn't care.


----------



## sags

When everybody is in charge of everything......nobody is in charge of anything. We see the results of the ad hoc approach to the pandemic.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> When everybody is in charge of everything......nobody is in charge of anything. We see the results of the ad hoc approach to the pandemic.


Yes, that is why we should have a single omnipotent dictator calling all the shots, that's sure to work well...
wait, it doens't work, and has consistently led to the worst abuses in human history.... maybe we shouldn't try that... again.


----------



## OptsyEagle

From the very beginning I took all my precaution recommendations from the virus itself. You know what. It never changed its mind. It always did the same thing, day in, day out. For example. No matter how many people Doug Ford said could be in my house or bubble, at any period during this pandemic, the virus always told me that while me and my family were unvaccinated there was never a time that could be done safely. The virus told me that. I did not need anyone else to chime in.

To put your life, solely in the hands of politicians, unknown experts or even doctors, when you have the ability to look into the situation yourself is foolhardy, if you ask me.

Listen to all of them. Read what the experts say. When Pfizer says they have 94% efficacy, understand what they actually mean by that. Then decide on how to protect you and your family. There is no one going to protect you and your family better then yourself because they will always have different priorities. Stop outsourcing this critical responsibility.

Just my opinion of course.


----------



## gibor365

> No matter how many people Doug Ford said could be in my house or bubble, at any period during this pandemic, the virus always told me


 that government/media hysteria is exaggeration... so, we didn't change our habits at all (obviously when it was possible)


----------



## gibor365

Now our so-called government is creating another hysteria about full ICUs (even though occupancy now is about 70%) and no nurses to work there 
however, when everyone was talking about 2nd wave more than 100 registered nurses were laid off in Ontario








Ontario Hospitals To Lay Off Over 100 Nurses Despite Staff Shortages


“This is not the time to be cutting registered nurses."




www.huffingtonpost.ca


----------



## gibor365

Many lockdown lovers giving Australia as an example. However , as per Australian Institute of National Affairs

_Unfortunately, this isn’t just a “Third World” worry. Australia’s top mental health experts warn that a lockdown-induced 50 percent jump in suicides could kill ten times as many as the virus. Similarly the Royal College of Psychiatrists reports a sixfold increase in suicide attempts by the elderly in the UK because of depression and anxiety caused by social isolation during the lockdown. With elective surgeries and routine screenings suspended, many cancers and heart diseases that are treatable if caught in time will dramatically elevate the death toll.








Most Read of 2020: Lockdowns Could Kill More People Than COVID-19 - Australian Institute of International Affairs


There has been a remarkable lack of observed statistical difference in the rates of death for countries, and for US states, that have and have not locked down. An assessment of the models used to project different scenarios must be evaluated relative to the lived reality.



www.internationalaffairs.org.au




_
Lockdowns kills more people than Covid!


----------



## sags

Your articles are old and before the waves of new variants. 

The COVID is affecting all patient care, but that is the fault of the COVID........not the lock downs. Opening up will make the situation even worse.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Your articles are old and before the waves of new variants.


Sorry, but Australia doesn't have "the waves of new variants"


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Sorry, but Australia doesn't have "the waves of new variants"


Australia closed their borders.
Canada didn't.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Australia closed their borders.
> Canada didn't.


If Canada would closing borders from hot spots countries 1 year ago, we would've been and much better shape.... but in JT eyes it was not politically correct to stop flights from Indian and Pakistan until last week or so


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Australia closed their borders.
> Canada didn't.


Just beware MrMatt that if Canada did what Australia did, people would be screaming their heads off about their freedoms are being taken away, living in an authoritarian regime. So you can't please everyone.

I think Australia is doing it the right way and I don't care that people are inconvenienced. I also don't care that it's heavy handed.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Just beware MrMatt that if Canada did what Australia did, people would be screaming their heads off about their freedoms are being taken away, living in an authoritarian regime. So you can't please everyone.
> 
> I think Australia is doing it the right way and I don't care that people are inconvenienced. I also don't care that it's heavy handed.


First of all you ignore report of Australian report of huge jumps in suicides because of lockdowns...
Secondly, you need to consider Australia geographical location and attractions they have (include NZ). if we were living in AUS/NZ, maybe we'd travel outside of the region once in 8-10 years and lockdown wouldn't influence us so much,,,, however, from swamp called Ontario we travel on average 4 times per year abroad....as really, there is nothing to do here and even now when we're vaccinated ALL cottage resorts in Muskoka are closed!
The day JT removes ridiculous "hotel quarantine" , we're booking trip abroad (most likely Mexico or Caribbean).


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Just beware MrMatt that if Canada did what Australia did, people would be screaming their heads off about their freedoms are being taken away, living in an authoritarian regime. So you can't please everyone.
> 
> I think Australia is doing it the right way and I don't care that people are inconvenienced. I also don't care that it's heavy handed.


Yes, however I think that if Canada closed the borders, and implemented harsh lockdowns last spring, we'd be in great shape.

But they didn't, because they're "negotiating" with COVID, they should have been serious from the start.


----------



## Spudd

gibor365 said:


> First of all you ignore report of Australian report of huge jumps in suicides because of lockdowns...


Here is the Australian government website about suicide rates:








COVID-19 - Australian Institute of Health and Welfare


COVID-19 page on the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare website




www.aihw.gov.au





They state there is no observable difference due to Covid-19.


----------



## MrMatt

Spudd said:


> Here is the Australian government website about suicide rates:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 - Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
> 
> 
> COVID-19 page on the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare website
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aihw.gov.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They state there is no observable difference due to Covid-19.


Which is great news, but it conflicted the early reports of significant mental health issues and calls to suicide lines, spikes in domestic violence etc.

Hopefully it didn't happen, or maybe it just front loaded suicides earlier in the year.


----------



## andrewf

Spudd said:


> Here is the Australian government website about suicide rates:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 - Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
> 
> 
> COVID-19 page on the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare website
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aihw.gov.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They state there is no observable difference due to Covid-19.


Don't let facts get in the way of the narrative!



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suicides-alberta-bc-saskatchewan-canada-2020-no-increase-1.5902908





> But Black pointed to recently released data out of Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan that suggest suicide rates declined in 2020. He also noted coroners in Quebec and the chief medical examiner in Newfoundland and Labrador have recently said there were no increases in suicide rates in those provinces last year.
> 
> Data from Ontario and other provinces is still forthcoming. Black says counting suicide deaths always comes with some degree of uncertainty because investigations into both cause of death and a person's intentions can take a long time.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Don't let facts get in the way of the narrative!
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suicides-alberta-bc-saskatchewan-canada-2020-no-increase-1.5902908


The experts, and pretty much everyone else logically expected a certain outcome... which didn't seem to happen.

This is just like the spread of COVID19 in schools. It's uncomfortable, but the data clearly shows that the massive suicide didn't really happen.


Suicide is actually a really interesting, and highly contradictory field.
Logic really doesn't explain much of it, of course the behaviour of mentally ill isn't typically what we'd consider logical anyway.

I'm not claiming to be a suicide expert, as it doesn't really interest me. But I think at the outset it was reasonable to be concerned, and I'm glad that those fears didn't materialize. Maybe a few months of lockdown isn't enough to really "push people over the edge".


----------



## sags

We just had an 18 year old pass away from the COVID in our city.

He was a healthy young man with no health issues. He developed a few slight symptoms and his parents thought it was a minor cold.

In a matter of minutes he developed extreme symptoms and was rushed to the hospital. He passed away 90 minutes later.

This virus is a killer........when it has the chance. Please.....watch family members closely for symptoms of any kind.

People need to get tested ASAP if they have any symptoms. When old people pass it is a tragedy, but we can say they had their life.

When young teens pass away.......it is so much harder to accept.









Family says London, Ont. teen who died of COVID-19 had no underlying conditions


The London teen who died of COVID-19 has been identified by family as Owen Brandies.



london.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> We just had an 18 year old pass away from the COVID in our city.
> 
> He was a healthy young man with no health issues. He developed a few slight symptoms and his parents thought it was a minor cold.
> 
> In a matter of minutes he developed extreme symptoms and was rushed to the hospital. He passed away 90 minutes later.
> 
> This virus is a killer........when it has the chance. Please.....watch family members closely for symptoms of any kind.
> 
> People need to get tested ASAP if they have any symptoms. When old people pass it is a tragedy, but we can say they had their life.
> 
> When young teens pass away.......it is so much harder to accept.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Family says London, Ont. teen who died of COVID-19 had no underlying conditions
> 
> 
> The London teen who died of COVID-19 has been identified by family as Owen Brandies.
> 
> 
> 
> london.ctvnews.ca


Don’t mean for this to sound mean….but this teen and the 13 year old girl who died in Brampton both appeared heavy-set……is obesity a bigger factor than is discussed?


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Don’t mean for this to sound mean….but this teen and the 13 year old girl who died in Brampton both appeared heavy-set……is obesity a bigger factor than is discussed?


obesity was one of the early identified risk factors.


----------



## sags

I think those are older pictures. He was reported as being 6 foot 3 inches tall.....so he likely lengthened out as he grew.

From the link posted......_.Arquette says she has spoken to the coroner, who confirmed he had no underlying or pre-existing conditions. _

He is the youngest person to die from COVID in our city. Previously a 19 year old had passed away after working at an LTC home.

We also had an Olympic athlete recently in the hospital. He was very sick but is managing to slowly recover.

The variants appear to be severely affecting otherwise healthy young people.


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> Don’t mean for this to sound mean….but this teen and the 13 year old girl who died in Brampton both appeared heavy-set……is obesity a bigger factor than is discussed?


Fatties deserve it...?

Half the population is overweight. Sucks to be them?


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> Fatties deserve it...?
> 
> Half the population is overweight. Sucks to be them?


No one deserves it..., but
19 y.o.?! Something wrong here....

Is obesity not underlying condition?!

This covid hype is so ridiculous .... I don't remember that it was discussed in all media that some young person died from heart issue, cancer, flu or diabetes


----------



## Numbersman61

gibor365 said:


> No one deserves it..., but
> 19 y.o.?! Something wrong here....
> 
> Is obesity not underlying condition?!
> 
> This covid hype is so ridiculous .... I don't remember that it was discussed in all media that some young person died from heart issue, cancer, flu or diabetes


Heart issues, cancer and diabetes are *NOT *contagious.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Fatties deserve it...?
> 
> Half the population is overweight. Sucks to be them?


He didn't say that, he simply asked if obesity is a risk factor. It is


----------



## Beaver101

Axsphyxiation from Covid doesn't require anyone (ie. any age) to have any underlying condition (ie. healthy or not).

I guess some people (aka as morons) hasn't seen a death from axsphyxiation (or possibly any kind of death) in their life to mouth off Covid as being hype.


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> No one deserves it..., but
> 19 y.o.?! Something wrong here....
> 
> Is obesity not underlying condition?!
> 
> This covid hype is so ridiculous .... I don't remember that it was discussed in all media that some young person died from heart issue, cancer, flu or diabetes


There was a 30 y/o Olympian that was putting his affairs in order in the hospital. Lots of non-obese, young and very fit people who are experiencing serious illness.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> He didn't say that, he simply asked if obesity is a risk factor. It is


It is. But the implication is that, oh well, the kid was kind of heavy. And so what? There are many kids who are overweight.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> It is. But the implication is that, oh well, the kid was kind of heavy. And so what? There are many kids who are overweight.


I read it as they honestly weren't aware that obesity was a COVID19 risk factor, and it hasn't been given much attention. The age issue has gotten far more attention.

Most Canadian adults are overweight.




__





Overweight and obese adults, 2018


This is a Health fact sheet about Canadians aged 18 and older who are overweight or obese, based on self-reported height and weight that has been adjusted with correction factors. The results shown are based on data from the Canadian Community Health Survey.




www150.statcan.gc.ca





Short answer, obesity is a risk factor for almost every health problem.
Lack of exercise is also a risk factor for almost every health problem.

It's important to note they are not the same thing.
I know overweight people who exercise, I know people who are not overweight who don't exercise.

Lack of exercise, well that's within your control.
Obesity is more complicated.


----------



## Bananatron

MrMatt said:


> He didn't say that, he simply asked if obesity is a risk factor. It is


I must say that both teens that passed away were both closer to the overweight category than obese. Maybe going strictly by bmi they might have been on the low end of obesity (30-35), but usually when I think obese I think 40++.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> There was a 30 y/o Olympian that was putting his affairs in order in the hospital. Lots of non-obese, young and very fit people who are experiencing serious illness.


Everything can happen to anyone... on the other hand , i know many overweighed people , who aren't doing any sport , having underlying conditions and .... very mild Covid even easier than flu...

The most sportive and smart guy in my faculty in University died from cancer before he reached 50 , he didn't smoke didn't drink , big athlete etc... 
c'est la vie


----------



## sags

The coroner said there were no underlying health issues, so I think I will go with that.

I don't know why people are trying to assert that healthy people aren't dying from COVID because many already have.

In fact, from what I have read it seems like an immune system that responds too vigorously is to blame for some of the deaths.

They say an overactive immune system creates a "cytokine storm".


----------



## OptsyEagle

If your exposure time to the covid-19 virus is long enough it can kill anyone. We have seen that already many times. No one is immune. It can even get past the immune systems of vaccinated and previously infected people with large enough doses of virus. With the newer, more deadly variants that dose does not need to be as big as it use to in order to take down the healthiest of humans. If you are not sure the dose you just received will kill you, just hang out in that contaminated environment a little longer. It will happen.


----------



## Money172375

I’m not saying healthy people aren’t dying of this……and I never implied it was “ok” they passed. More than anything, it’s shocking to see teens die of covid, and in my heart, I want to believe they had some underlying condition. If obesity was an underlying condition, they surely aren’t going to publicize it after the death of a child. I know obese people, and I‘ve struggled with a little excess weight myself (20-25 lbs) and I know, I can often hear people (and people hear me) breathing when the weight is excessive. If I can hear you breathing, it’s likely you have some respiratory challenges, which in turn makes recovering from covid that much harder.

no ill intention in my original observation. Just shocked that young people are passing away. Makes the decision of getting my teens vaccinated easier.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario's top health official says daily case counts would have to be 'well below' 1,000 to lift stay-at-home order



> _Ontario’s top public health official says that he would like to see daily case counts fall to “well below 1,000” before the stay-at-home order is lifted.
> 
> The Ontario government issued a four-week stay at home order back on April 7 but later extended it for another two weeks as the healthcare system came under increased strain.
> 
> The current order is now set to expire on May 19 *but during a press conference on Monday afternoon Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams seemed to pour cold water on the idea of loosening restrictions in time for the Victoria Day long weekend.*
> 
> “It think it (case counts) has to be well below 1,000. With the variants it is a new issue, they are much more readily transmitted so we have to be a lot more cautious,” he said. “*We don't want to go back up again. We do not want to fourth wave.* We don't want to have to close things back down again when we open up.” ... _



Makes perfect sense to me.


----------



## Numbersman61

What is the risk of outdoor transmission?








A Misleading C.D.C. Number (Published 2021)


We have a special edition of the newsletter on a misleading C.D.C. statistic.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## Beaver101

^ With common sense, supposedly next to none provided a stranger ain't talking moistly to you or sharing his/her breath with ya.


----------



## gibor365

Mississauga's Major requesting to open outdoor rec

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392138587274088450
Hopefully at least golf courses will be opened soon


----------



## sags

I think I will go into the Defcon 5 personal security level to protect myself.


----------



## Beaver101

Watch another staff of Ford's test positive which means the Premier has to go into isolation for another 2 weeks or so or until the lame lock-down is over, if not extended again. Depending on what the numbers Dr. D. Williams like to see.


----------



## Beaver101

*Ontario golf courses will remain closed during COVID-19 stay-at-home order, solicitor general says*



> ..._ Ford is expected to officially announce an extension to the stay-at-home provisions later this week, so they would *last through June 2*_*. ...*


_



Meanwhile, Golf Ontario, which represents the industry, insisted “golf is safe and it is incredibly important for the mental and physical well-being of so many. *It is time to reopen safe outdoor activities.”[*/QUOTE] ...

Click to expand...

_


> yep, *only after June 2 when Dr. D. Williams can further advise Ford.*


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> *Ontario golf courses will remain closed during COVID-19 stay-at-home order, solicitor general says*


It's dumb to close golf courses.
However you know that many are not wearing masks and distancing.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> It's dumb to close golf courses.
> However you know that many are not wearing masks and distancing.


 ... not according to Ford & team. 

If it's the case (many attending golf courses are flouting the laws), then it makes no difference that the courses are open or closed in which case they "remain as closed".


----------



## Money172375

Weather is warming up in Ontario this weekend, 20ish. Bet we’ll see flaunting of outdoor activities. 
I, for one, think some outdoor activities should be allowed. Tennis, golf, boating, soccer etc.
keep it to members of the same household or up to 5 or 10 people. People need a break and it’s relatively safe. The government needs to show a little good will. I think Ontario is the only jurisdiction in North America restricting outdoor activities to the degree it has.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... not according to Ford & team.
> 
> If it's the case (many attending golf courses are flouting the laws), then it makes no difference that the courses are open or closed in which case they "remain as closed".


I don't think Ford & team are the arbiters of what is dumb and not dumb. Surprising that you would suggest they are.


----------



## sags

In our city in the past few days, people are posting in local social media that this Tim Hortons is closed until further notice, and that Wendy's is closed and........

I came home on the 401 highway a couple days ago, and the Wendy's on the highway service centre was closed.......even the drive thru.

Even with only partial openings, the virus is still spreading. The local health authority is no longer contact tracing so they don't bother to advise people.

With the local authorities not advising the public where the outbreaks are occurring, people use social media to tell each other.

People don't trust the government or health authorities very much. They trust each other on social media more.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> People don't trust the government or health authorities very much. They trust each other on social media more.


Of course not, Trudeau and Tam have been lying since the beginning.
No wonder he wants to censor and control social media.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> Weather is warming up in Ontario this weekend, 20ish. Bet we’ll see flaunting of outdoor activities.
> I, for one, think some outdoor activities should be allowed. Tennis, golf, boating, soccer etc.
> keep it to members of the same household or up to 5 or 10 people. People need a break and it’s relatively safe. The government needs to show a little good will. I think Ontario is the only jurisdiction in North America restricting outdoor activities to the degree it has.


The people (who can) are going to do it those activities regardless of idiotic government decisions. I know several current and former executives from major Canadian companies, who came from Florida from winter vacation (in borrowed cars in order not to sit in hotel quarantines) and ... boating/partying "season" was opened this week.... they have private yachts where they organizing private parties on lake Ontario. Obviously they were fully vaccinated in US .

P.S. To keep golf courses closed is a madness in it's prime! i;ve seen people playing golf on soccer fields around Mississuaga... You can stop people from living life up to certain degree

Ontario is "the only jurisdiction in North America restricting outdoor activities " and many other activities ...


----------



## Bananatron

The golfing demographic is probably 60%++ vaccinated anyways. It's like Ontarians are grounded by their daddy, and some people think it's still not enough. 

Golfing ain't a vector for coronavirus. Not saying you can't get it while golfing, but it's not the problem.


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> The golfing demographic is probably 60%++ vaccinated anyways. It's like Ontarians are grounded by their daddy, and some people think it's still not enough.
> 
> Golfing ain't a vector for coronavirus. Not saying you can't get it while golfing, but it's not the problem.


More likely You can get it just walking on the trails (we have the only trail close to home and literally thousands walking there every day), whole point of golfing that there is a big distance between golfers


----------



## like_to_retire

Bananatron said:


> The golfing demographic is probably 60%++ vaccinated anyways.


Most 60+ are not vaccinated. They're half vaccinated.

ltr


----------



## Bananatron

like_to_retire said:


> Most 60+ are not vaccinated. They're half vaccinated.
> 
> ltr


Huh. 

60% of 55+ in alberta have received at least one shot. 









COVID-19 Alberta statistics


Interactive aggregate data on COVID-19 cases in Alberta




www.alberta.ca


----------



## like_to_retire

Bananatron said:


> Huh.
> 
> 60% of 55+ in alberta have received at least one shot.


Yea, that's half vaccinated. 

They lose their ability to become fully vaccinated at 21 days because of the 4 month delay the government decided upon.

ltr


----------



## gibor365

like_to_retire said:


> Yea, that's half vaccinated.
> 
> They lose their ability to become fully vaccinated at 21 days because of the 4 month delay the government decided upon.
> 
> ltr


I still didn;t hear any numbers of Covid infected after 1st dose...
P.S. IMHO, Golf courses should be opened regardless on vaccines


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> I still didn;t hear any numbers of Covid infected after 1st dose...
> P.S. IMHO, Golf courses should be opened regardless on vaccines


I personally know a couple (late 80's) who got covid19 after vaccination, they were deathly ill.
It's no joke


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> I personally know a couple (late 80's) who got covid19 after vaccination, they were deathly ill.
> It's no joke


I don;t know anyone and would like to see stats,,,,

Our Humber college dropout (after 2 months of study ), Mr. Doug extend stay-at-home nonsense until June . What a stupid jerk! I watched his live press conference on facebook today and read the comments.... at max 1% supports his idiotic decision!

P.S. Lift lockdown! Let people live!


----------



## andrewf

Does he have your vote next year, gibor?


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> Does he have your vote next year, gibor?


Depends how bad will be competitors


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I don't think Ford & team are the arbiters of what is dumb and not dumb. Surprising that you would suggest they are.


 ... if Ford & "team" are not arbiters of the lock-downs for Ontario, then who is? You can voote for gibor to replace Ford then.


----------



## gibor365

The Centers for Disease Control recently updated their guidelines to say vaccinated people can remove their masks outdoors in crowds and inside in most situations. 








VERIFY: Under new mask guidelines, here's how to prove you're vaccinated


The CDC now says vaccinated people can gather in large groups indoors. Verify has everything you need to know about the little card that proves your status.




www.wusa9.com





and in Ontario stay-at-home madness got extended


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... if Ford & "team" are not arbiters of the lock-downs for Ontario, then who is? You can voote for gibor to replace Ford then.


I didn't say they weren't the arbiters of the lockdowns. They are the elected leaders who decide this stuff.

I said it was dumb to close golf courses. Post #4,765  
You said "... not according to Ford & team." Post 4766.

I think it's silly to rely on Ford (or any politician) on what is dumb or not.


Finally I am not really a fan of Doug Ford, I didn't vote for him in the leadership race. But I think he's doing a pretty good job. 
However I'm not some blind partisan who just agrees with everything.
I think closing golf courses is dumb. I think cancelling AZ is dumb.

Oh and masks work.
I was clearing out an old dusty dirty office for 7 hours, wore my mask and not a sniffle or cough or even irritation.
Afterwards I was waiting around, took off the mask and I could feel the irritation.
I was shocked at the difference, I didn't think a simple 3 layer mask would work that well.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I didn't say they weren't the arbiters of the lockdowns. They are the elected leaders who decide this stuff.


 ... then what's with the feedback "Surprising that you would suggest they are. "?



> I said it was dumb to close golf courses. Post #4,765
> You said "... not according to Ford & team." Post 4766.


 ... correct and my response stands since they're the arbiters of the lockdowns whether you think it's dumb of which I think it is NOT dumb.



> I think it's silly to rely on Ford (or any politician) on what is dumb or not.


 ... no one is relying him on determining what's dumb or not. The fact is he's the Premier of Ontario and is in charge of the laws (through consultation with his team of Solicitor General, Attorney General, Rainbow of Ministers, etc.). If you want to or not go by the guidelines or flout the lame lockdown laws, you still have that right, just as with the golf courses. Just pay the fines, if you're caught.



> Finally I am not really a fan of Doug Ford, I didn't vote for him in the leadership race. But I think he's doing a pretty good job.


 ... I agree that he's doing not bad of a job (close equivalent to your definition of a pretty good job since there's always room for improvement) given the circumstances. Ie. I would give him a B even I'm nowhere close to being a Conservative. In fact, I'm not a "fan" of any "political" party, anywhere.



> However I'm not some blind partisan who just agrees with everything.


 ... neither am I. I rely on common sense (my own).



> I think closing golf courses is dumb. I think cancelling AZ is dumb.


 ... no it is not and I can think of other "reasons" for that, other than justifying it's an "outdoor" or "less transmission activity". Keep in mind the golf course closures is only "temporary". If it makes you feel any better, think of all the continuous (in-dining) restaurants' "closures", with the "out-door" concept still up in the air.

As for the AZ "cancellation", I don't think that is a definite either. It's just a pause until those involved (medical experts, politicians, etc.) "figure" it out ... a plan to use them up or donate or dispose them. It's a complex situation with no easy decision.



> Oh and masks work.
> I was clearing out an old dusty dirty office for 7 hours, wore my mask and not a sniffle or cough or even irritation.
> Afterwards I was waiting around, took off the mask and I could feel the irritation.
> I was shocked at the difference, I didn't think a simple 3 layer mask would work that well.


 .. you might want to convince the CMF member in post #4783 since he's getting ideas that masks will become irrelevant soon here in Ontario given CDC's (the USA) new mask guidelines. As for myself, I'll be wearing masks until the pandemic is declared over ... and even then I might be wearing them everytime I'm outside given all the dust, particulates and pollution. As you've noticed too, there is a difference in air quality when wearing a mask or not.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... then what's with the feedback "Surprising that you would suggest they are. "?


I said they're dumb, you said not according to Ford & team.
Their opinion is irrelevant. I think it's dumb. Why should their opinion change mine? You seem to think it should.



> If you want to or not go by the guidelines or flout the lame lockdown laws, you still have that right, just as with the golf courses. Just pay the fines, if you're caught.


I have no interest in doing so. I have no intention of violating the restrictions. 
I just happen to think the specific ban on golf courses (and ski hills at the time) was dumb.

[/quote]
As for the AZ "cancellation", I don't think that is a definite either. It's just a pause until those involved (medical experts, politicians, etc.) "figure" it out ... a plan to use them up or donate or dispose them. It's a complex situation with no easy decision.
[/quote]
I agree, and to me it seems that AZ is just collateral damage in the name of full disclosure.



> .. you might want to convince the CMF member in post #4783


Not worth the energy, he's partisan hack, no reasoning with him.


----------



## andrewf

Apparently 3 month interval seems to work well for Pfizer vaccine.









Delay in giving second jabs of Pfizer vaccine improves immunity


Study finds antibodies against Sars-CoV-2 three-and-a-half times higher in people vaccinated again after 12 weeks rather than three




www.theguardian.com


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I said they're dumb, you said not according to Ford & team.


 ... and I still say they (Ford & team) are not dumb for not giving in to keeping the golf-courses closed. And recall, I never once said Ford was 'dumb', in fact the opposite versus your version that he wasn't particularly bright.


> Their opinion is irrelevant. I think it's dumb. Why should their opinion change mine? You seem to think it should.


 ... I don't thnk it's just an 'opinion' of theirs not to open the golf-course. Ford is getting his 'advice' from his medical circle, particularly from the chief medical officer of the province. Dr. D. Williams has already stated that he would only agreeable to lifting the lock-down for Ontario if the numbers are below 1,000 and we're nowhere near that (not even half) although there is a positive sign it's trending down. And no, I didn't think the arbiters' opinion should change yours since your opinion (and mine's too) would be irrelevant. I just so happen to agree (my opinion) that Ford & team is making the right call here. Golf courses to remain closed ... as with tennis courts, basketball courts, ski-hills and what have you where people have an opportunity to congregate plus moving here and there easily transmitting the virus. Repeating Dr. Williams remarks here: "We can't have a fourth wave."



> I have no interest in doing so. I have no intention of violating the restrictions.
> I just happen to think the specific ban on golf courses (and ski hills at the time) was dumb.


 ... the ban on golf courses ain't so specific if you look at the range of other outdoor recreational activities as mentioned above. Moreover, has it ever occurred to you that if you allow golf-courses open, what do you think the other recreational businesses will say? Multiple fouls to Ford!!!


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... and I still say they (Ford & team) are not dumb for not giving in to keeping the golf-courses closed. And recall, I never once said Ford was 'dumb', in fact the opposite versus your version that he wasn't particularly bright.
> ... I don't thnk it's just an 'opinion' of theirs not to open the golf-course. Ford is getting his 'advice' from his medical circle, particularly from the chief medical officer of the province. Dr. D. Williams has already stated that he would only agreeable to lifting the lock-down for Ontario if the numbers are below 1,000 and we're nowhere near that (not even half) although there is a positive sign it's trending down. And no, I didn't think the arbiters' opinion should change yours since your opinion (and mine's too) would be irrelevant. I just so happen to agree (my opinion) that Ford & team is making the right call here. Golf courses to remain closed ... as with tennis courts, basketball courts, ski-hills and what have you where people have an opportunity to congregate plus moving here and there easily transmitting the virus. Repeating Dr. Williams remarks here: "We can't have a fourth wave."
> 
> ... the ban on golf courses ain't so specific if you look at the range of other outdoor recreational activities as mentioned above. Moreover, has it ever occurred to you that if you allow golf-courses open, what do you think the other recreational businesses will say? Multiple fouls to Ford!!!


I completely agree.
I still think it's dumb to close golf courses, they can easily be used safely.

I see all the reasons it would be unfair, and all the reasons that this might be the right choice.
Even for simplicity of what is allowed and not it makes sense. allow golf courses but not putting greens? mini golf, what about short courses?

I still think it's a dumb decision.


Also I don't think Doug Ford is particularly intelligent, I think he even knows this. However he is far more open to listening and working with others. I do believe he's a well intentioned guy who cares and is doing the best that he can, and I think he's doing a pretty good job. Like I said he has exceeded my expectations, though admittedly they weren't very high.

I'm even a member of the PC party, none of that means I have to agree with Doug Ford, or his governments decisions.


----------



## gibor365

*Ottawa Senators owner took Caribbean superyacht vacation during pandemic — and it went horribly, lawsuits say*
*What a mess! Billionaires are doing whatever they want regardless "stay-at-home" order 


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/eugene-melnyk-lawsuits-yacht-cruise-bahamas-1.6024743


*


----------



## gibor365

> I just happen to think the specific ban on golf courses (and ski hills at the time) was dumb.


 I was talking same thing for months! And how extremely dumb to close public tennis courts! Usually in late winter city workers are removing nets on tennis courts and in the spring they put it back. This fall (probably because of Covid) they didn't remove nets in the fall, so people played (weather permitted) in winter and early spring, but last month all nets got removed! Why?! Tennis is outdoor activity and in 99% of the case people from same household are playing! Why this idiocy is going on and on?! 
And regrading recreations.... US, Europe, even tiny Israel have a huge network of free to access National forests and recreation areas.... Ontario has NONE! Everything is private or dozen of half destroyed and expensive Provincial/Regional parks that are currently closed ! This is why our neighborhood the only trail is always packed! Is it really helps to control the virus?!


----------



## moderator2

This is a COVID topic thread. Keep the posts on topic.

I moved all the recent political topics to the Politics thread.


----------



## bgc_fan

Situation isn't as critical in Taiwan, and Singapore; however, this article points out the fact that you can't get complacent: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-singapore-covid-success-stories-093829771.html

Taiwan had a total of 253 days without a single case, but jumped up a little over 700 cases over the weekend. All it takes is a little complacency and you can let COVID through. Of course, since they didn't have as many cases and had life as normal, vaccinations weren't a priority. But with the new more virulent strains, now there's going to be more of a rush: Nobody rushed to get vaccinated in COVID-free Taiwan. Now it’s in lockdown


----------



## gibor365

Practically All health experts are telling that outdoor amenities should be open ASAP.... Still 2 local idiots Ford and Elliot don't allow it








Ontario to reopen outdoor recreational amenities 'on or before June 2'


Health Minister Christine Elliott says that her government will reopen recreational amenities 'on or before June 2' when the current stay-at-home order is set to expire.



toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Beaver101

^ Which 'ALL health experts' do you wish to refer to?


----------



## gibor365

Stop torture kids! Lift dumb lockdowns!


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-teen-pandemic-restrictions-1.6024078?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> Stop torture kids! Lift dumb lockdowns!
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-teen-pandemic-restrictions-1.6024078?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar


Does anyone else think that's a very poorly written article?


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Does anyone else think that's a very poorly written article?


It's an opinion piece written by a 13 year old, not much to expect. The funny thing is as an introvert, the lockdown wouldn't have changed anything for me at that age.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> It's an opinion piece written by a 13 year old, not much to expect. The funny thing is as an introvert, the lockdown wouldn't have changed anything for me at that age.


Guess I thought someone would have helped her out a little but you're right. Does get the point across that times are tough.


----------



## gibor365

Hospitals are seeing a sharp increase of kids in crisis. Advocates say it’s time for immediate action


The #CodePINK campaign aims to spark momentum on improving children’s mental well-being across Canada as hospitals see rising numbers in suicide attempts and substance use disorders.




www.thestar.com


----------



## Beaver101

^ I think they should start with the mental improvements of the adults of these kids (or maybe just the kids in these adults aka the "parents") first.


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Hospitals are seeing a sharp increase of kids in crisis. Advocates say it’s time for immediate action
> 
> 
> The #CodePINK campaign aims to spark momentum on improving children’s mental well-being across Canada as hospitals see rising numbers in suicide attempts and substance use disorders.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thestar.com


I agree this is a problem.
But actual suicide data hasn't actually increased much according to most studies. Which is a good thing.

We know that mental health issues are a problem, and have likely gotten worse. But we're going to unlock soon, and just have low level background fear for a while.
We're going to end lockdowns, because people have have enough.


----------



## sags

Ontario is making the same mistake they made last Christmas. They are opening up before the May 24 long weekend.

Local beaches and parks are bracing for the influx of crowds. The Ford government has no idea what they are doing.


----------



## sags

Germany says the Indian variant is more aggressive than the UK variant. We need to guard against it taking hold in Canada.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ontario is making the same mistake they made last Christmas. They are opening up before the May 24 long weekend.
> 
> Local beaches and parks are bracing for the influx of crowds. The Ford government has no idea what they are doing.


People are ignoring the guidelines.
What do you want him to do?


----------



## sags

Lock everything down for a couple of months.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Lock everything down for a couple of months.


No, what do you want him to do this weekend?

I think the lockdowns are mostly in place.

The reality is when numbers feel low to people, and they want to do something, they're gonna do it anwyay.

Look at mothersday, it was "lockdown" people ignored it.

I just hope that people listen to Ford and get 2 doses, not Trudeau and his 1 dose summer garbage.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> not Trudeau and his 1 dose summer garbage.


????


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> ????


Trudeau has been suggesting, and people have been hearing, that one dose means that they can have a normal summer.
It is confusing people, some people think that Trudeau is actually saying 1 dose provides enough protection to get back to normal.

He might not be actually saying this, and I sure hope he doesn't mean it. But that is the message people are interpreting from what he says.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> Lock everything down for a couple of months.


You realize toronto and Peel have been locked down since December? The risks outdoors with 60% with one shot are very, very minimal.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Trudeau has been suggesting, and people have been hearing, that one dose means that they can have a normal summer.
> It is confusing people, some people think that Trudeau is actually saying 1 dose provides enough protection to get back to normal.
> 
> He might not be actually saying this, and I sure hope he doesn't mean it. But that is the message people are interpreting from what he says.


Ah, haven't seen this myself or heard it mentioned by anyone I know ... that's why I was asking.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> You realize toronto and Peel have been locked down since December? The risks outdoors with 60% with one shot are very, very minimal.


sags just ignores any facts that don't fix his opinion.


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Germany says the Indian variant is more aggressive than the UK variant. We need to guard against it taking hold in Canada.


the vaccines based on recent research is effective against the Indian variant. eE got our shorts tied in knots over the UK and SF variants and the vaccines handled them quite well. At some point we have to look a free and democratic society and begin to leave the nanny , police state behind.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> You realize toronto and Peel have been locked down since December? The risks outdoors with 60% with one shot are very, very minimal.


We actually in lockdown for last 15 months (with some restrictions lifted during summer) .... We cannot attend Russian Saunas (Steamul) from March last year!


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Trudeau has been suggesting, and people have been hearing, that one dose means that they can have a normal summer.
> It is confusing people, some people think that Trudeau is actually saying 1 dose provides enough protection to get back to normal.
> 
> He might not be actually saying this, and I sure hope he doesn't mean it. But that is the message people are interpreting from what he says.


Very true! As per NACI/Trudeau/Ford it sounds like 1 vaccine is pretty much enough LOL


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Ontario is making the same mistake they made last Christmas. They are opening up before the May 24 long weekend.
> 
> Local beaches and parks are bracing for the influx of crowds. The Ford government has no idea what they are doing.


Believe me that a huge anti-lockdown protest across All Ontario would be much worse! Now ppl just would go to parks and play golf..... btw, just booked last spot at BraeBen golf Mississauga at 6.40 on Monday!


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Very true! As per NACI/Trudeau/Ford it sounds like 1 vaccine is pretty much enough LOL


1 dose is good, but we need that second dose.

The reality is that people have had enough of lockdowns, so they're going to do it anyway. The provinces have to balance restrictions to what they realistically expect compliance to.

Better to have weak restrictions that are complied with than harsh restrictions which are completely ignored.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> 1 dose is good, but we need that second dose.
> 
> The reality is that people have had enough of lockdowns, so they're going to do it anyway. The provinces have to balance restrictions to what they realistically expect compliance to.
> 
> Better to have weak restrictions that are complied with than harsh restrictions which are completely ignored.


Exactly! It was a good move to open golf and parks before long weekend as people of Ontario are exhausted!


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Lock everything down for a couple of months.


Dude, you should've live in USSR during Stalin with your suggestions LOL


----------



## sags

You should live in Manitoba and see what is happening there.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> You should live in Manitoba and see what is happening there.


First 23 years of my life I spent in Siberia! It was enough for me LOL


----------



## sags

In a couple of weeks I will be hearing all the ambulances again, as all the "outdoors" folks gasp for air.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> You should live in Manitoba and see what is happening there.


Oh please no ... Nothing to see here in Manitoba, move along now. 


gibor365 said:


> First 23 years of my life I spent in Siberia! It was enough for me LOL


That's the spirit, stay in Ontario!


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> sags just ignores any facts that don't fix his opinion.


You ignore any facts at all.


----------



## sags

What is the vaccination rate in Manitoba ?

The positive infection rate is 16% in Winnipeg and 14% elsewhere.

They are in a crisis mode and asking Trudeau to send doctors and nurses. They are shipping patients to Ontario. They expect it to get worse.

It doesn't appear to me that vaccinations are having much effect there.

As one of their doctors said........vaccinations are NOT immunity. One vaccination offers limited protection and fully vaccinated provides more.

Fully vaccinated people can get infected and spread the virus. They get sick but are less likely to die from covid.

The vaccines fight the virus AFTER it enters a body. They aren't a security blanket that keeps the virus away.

People are falsely confident the vaccines give them some kind of magical immunity.


----------



## Plugging Along

cainvest said:


> Does anyone else think that's a very poorly written article?


 For a 13 year old, it hits home. This is how my 12 and 15 year old feel. It written as the true feelings for a teen.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> For a 13 year old, it hits home. This is how my 12 and 15 year old feel. It written as the true feelings for a teen.


I think people are underestimating the harm on kids.
The crazy thing is that kids are getting the worst of this, with little of the benefits.
They've lost a year of education, and socialization, and are saddled with massive debt they'll have to pay off.

Yet they're the ones least likely to die.


----------



## Plugging Along

Beaver101 said:


> ^ I think they should start with the mental improvements of the adults of these kids (or maybe just the kids in these adults aka the "parents") first.


i take it either you don’t have kids or or understand mental health very well. As a parent with a teen who has been in distress due to mental health and then to have it made worse with Covid, I can assure you that most parents I know are doing the best we can. Those that seem to be suffering from mental health are the parents that have been trying to balance the health measures and their kids immediate mental health. mh kids don’t get to go to social gatherings or sleep overs when many of the other kids do. This is time developmentally that kids should be it socializing. I would say teens are one of the groups most hardly impacted especially with the mental health. Yet, my teen understands why we must do out part. but it doesn’t mean she is not suffering when she is missing it and stuck at home. As a parent of a child suffering, I have replaced her social outings and activities with counselling at my cost for two or three times a week.

I assure you that my mental health and my families mental health would be better if they were smarter about the lock downs or if I didn’t follow them. Though I don’t think your intent was to blame the parents, this is another view. we follow the health measure because we are trying to protect others, but don’t think that it is easy for parents of teens or teens.


i dont agree with gibor in his open thing up as much as I don’t agree with sags on lock everything down. A little sacrifice on both parts and common sense would take us a lot further. It should be backed by science.

outdoors in small groups should be okay. They shut down some drive ins in our area. This makes NO SENSE when you are not allowed outside of your vehicle (no lawn chairs or back of trucks) and the vehicles have at least one stall between them. On the other side we have Covid idiots going to an illegal anti mask / lockdown rodeo whiich though outdoors has now started to show there were confirmed cases spread. If people would stop thinking just about themselves, cause I get tired, it’s hard, and think about the over all impacts we would be better off.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> I think people are underestimating the harm on kids.
> The crazy thing is that kids are getting the worst of this, with little of the benefits.
> They've lost a year of education, and socialization, and are saddled with massive debt they'll have to pay off.
> 
> Yet they're the ones least likely to die.


My friends daughter studies 1st year of University from home (nursing ) .... This sux !


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> What is the vaccination rate in Manitoba ?
> 
> The positive infection rate is 16% in Winnipeg and 14% elsewhere.


There isn't anywhere in Canada (except some small communities) yet where there is enough vaccination to really halt spread. The vaccines is not failing here. There just are many people who don't have any vaccine protection yet, and many people who catch COVID immediately before, or in the 2 weeks after, vaccination. The vaccine cannot protect against that. There is a 3 week "danger zone" around getting vaccinated.

This long weekend is a dangerous one. Everyone is going to have to be careful, because so far, COVID has increased after every major holiday. People decide to let their guard down, mix and socialize, they drink and forget to be cautious.

Just reminding everyone to keep your guard up and don't mix households! Do your socializing outdoors, never indoors.

Remember, someone might say "I'm vaccinated" and fail to mention that they got the shot 5 days ago. That person might still have COVID, and they might *catch* COVID. A person is not in the clear until 14 days have passed after their shot. Someone who go the shot 5 days ago can still end up in hospital and become a statistic.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Do your socializing outdoors, never indoors.


Easy for you to say .... outdoor socializing (non-family members) is not allowed in MB this weekend.


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> Easy for you to say .... outdoor socializing (non-family members) is not allowed in MB this weekend.


do you really think that people care?!


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> do you really think that people care?!


Some will ... some won't.


----------



## KaeJS

I have tried to stay away from this thread (and frankly, I think I've done quite a good job at that) but I just can't take this anymore.

Word/Rumour on the street is we will all be wearing masks in Ontario until the end of the year.

Are we completely braindead?

I hate this country more and more every single day.

I am honestly so ashamed to be Canadian.
I can't understand how we, as a nation, accept these rules.

Trudeau and Ford are both complete morons.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> There isn't anywhere in Canada (except some small communities) yet where there is enough vaccination to really halt spread. The vaccines is not failing here. There just are many people who don't have any vaccine protection yet, and many people who catch COVID immediately before, or in the 2 weeks after, vaccination. The vaccine cannot protect against that. There is a 3 week "danger zone" around getting vaccinated.
> 
> This long weekend is a dangerous one. Everyone is going to have to be careful, because so far, COVID has increased after every major holiday. People decide to let their guard down, mix and socialize, they drink and forget to be cautious.
> 
> Just reminding everyone to keep your guard up and don't mix households! Do your socializing outdoors, never indoors.
> 
> Remember, someone might say "I'm vaccinated" and fail to mention that they got the shot 5 days ago. That person might still have COVID, and they might *catch* COVID. A person is not in the clear until 14 days have passed after their shot. Someone who go the shot 5 days ago can still end up in hospital and become a statistic.


 ... better not post this warning ... some people are losing it.


----------



## Beaver101

Plugging Along said:


> i take it either you don’t have kids or or understand mental health very well. As a parent with a teen who has been in distress due to mental health and then to have it made worse with Covid, I can assure you that most parents I know are doing the best we can. Those that seem to be suffering from mental health are the parents that have been trying to balance the health measures and their kids immediate mental health. mh kids don’t get to go to social gatherings or sleep overs when many of the other kids do. This is time developmentally that kids should be it socializing. I would say teens are one of the groups most hardly impacted especially with the mental health. Yet, my teen understands why we must do out part. but it doesn’t mean she is not suffering when she is missing it and stuck at home. As a parent of a child suffering, I have replaced her social outings and activities with counselling at my cost for two or three times a week.


 ... never said parents (the responsible ones) aren't doing their best for their kids. Never said kids aren't suffering. In fact, everyone of us, from kids to adults are during this time. Perhaps the (older) adults can handle it better based on life experience. However, offloading on a forum only helps the parents, not the kids as doing that is superficial. You would require "professional" help and I see that you have taken that route with the individual counselling (even out of pocket). I would presume (definitely hope) it is helping (your) kid.



> I assure you that my mental health and my families mental health would be better if they were smarter about the lock downs or if I didn’t follow them. Though I don’t think your intent was to blame the parents, this is another view. we follow the health measure because we are trying to protect others, but don’t think that it is easy for parents of teens or teens.


 ... never said it was easy for the parents but that's a given responsibility of a parent You have to keep in mind those who are making the decisions on the lockdowns are parents too and I don't think they're doing it lightly. So I'm not sure how "smart" you want them to be. I'm sure too everyone's mental health would be a whole lot better if there weren't no lockdowns. Also, the choice to follow (or not to follow them) is ours. It's just a matter of risk-taking and economics.



> i dont agree with gibor in his open thing up as much as I don’t agree with sags on lock everything down. A little sacrifice on both parts and common sense would take us a lot further. It should be backed by science.


 ... I would agree too and I'm certain the lockdowns are done based on science (and economics)... perhaps not "precise" science since the rules-makers are dealing with a first time "real" pandemic ... infection rate trends and ICU numbers in hospitals will dictate just how much of a lockdown is required.



> outdoors in small groups should be okay.


 ... how do you define "small groups"? I would presume 3 "unrelated" people (since there's no rule more than 3 people of the same household can't be together.) That could be a disaster waiting to happen as all it takes is just 1 infected in that group to infect the other 2. As harsh as this seems to be - this is based on science. We all know that by now.



> They shut down some drive ins in our area. This makes NO SENSE when you are not allowed outside of your vehicle (no lawn chairs or back of trucks) and the vehicles have at least one stall between them.


 ... that's something you have to take up with your local municipal mayor/councillor) as for a start I can't see how you can have "some drive-ins" closed and not others in the area you're in. Keep in mind, alot of the rules are made up on-the-go, on a case-by-case basis which I don't think is right either. As for whether drive-ins can open since supposedly it's safer (outdoor) versus theatres (indoor), I don't think your city council / provincial made that decision diddly. You have to keep in mind of the (severe) "economic impact" with any lockdowns, restrictions, closures, etc., ups and downs, downs and ups, open and close, close and open, etc. I would agree it's mind-spinning. The politicians don't really have a choice if you don't want the health system to collapse. Just look at other countries from early on eg. Italy, Great Britain, the USA straining and now India.



> On the other side we have Covid idiots going to an illegal anti mask / lockdown rodeo whiich though outdoors has now started to show there were confirmed cases spread. *If people would stop thinking just about themselves, cause I get tired, it’s hard, and think about the over all impacts we would be better off*.


 ... exactly and I think the *majority of us are doing the right thing*, following the rules/guidelines/laws, wear the mask, get the vaccine so that we all can get back to "normal" (or at least close to that) "sooner" than later. It's just those Covidiots (aka selfish narcissist axxholes) are delaying the process.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> do you really think that people care?!


 ... so why do you care?


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I think people are underestimating the harm on kids.
> The crazy thing is that kids are getting the worst of this, with little of the benefits.
> They've lost a year of education, and socialization, and *are saddled with massive debt they'll have to pay off.
> 
> Yet they're the ones least likely to die.*


 ... wow, no wonder the kids these days start their financial "worries" early in life. They're being brain-washed.


----------



## moderator2

I moved an off topic political post to Politics.

Please keep this thread on topic.


----------



## gibor365

moderator2 said:


> I moved an off topic political post to Politics.
> 
> Please keep this thread on topic.


Interesting that you left KaeJS here and moved my reply on this post to Politics LOL... Whatever...you are the BOSS


----------



## sags

Canada has passed the US in single dose vaccinations. We will pass the US in full vaccinations by the end of June.

Canada now stands at 5th in the world for vaccinations. Great job on first doses, but now we need to move forward on 2nd doses.

With a purchase of 400 million doses, we should be vaccinating the second doses at a faster rate, but that is a Provincial responsibility.

Ontario is finally starting to set up mobile vaccinations.


----------



## gibor365

As per Ford's reopening plan


> Stage one is expected to begin on June 14 or* two weeks after 60 per cent of adults have at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine*.











Ontario reports 1,794 new COVID-19 cases and 20 more deaths; 7-day average dips below 2,000


Ontario is reporting fewer than 2,000 new COVID-19 cases for a second day in a row and 20 more deaths, as the seven-day rolling average dropped below 2,000 for the first time since March.




www.cp24.com




However, On May 11 (11 days ago)


> As of May 11, 2021, at 8:00 p.m., over 6.4 million vaccine doses have been administered across the province, with 93 per cent of Ontario residents aged 80 and over and 92 per cent of residents aged 75 to 79 having received at least one dose. More than 50 per cent of the population aged 18 and over have received at least one dose


As per today 7,925,277 , Thus, today by far more than 60% of adults already got 1 dose! 
So, i don't get what Ford is talking about....look like he has some basic math problems LOL


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Canada has passed the US in single dose vaccinations. We will pass the US in full vaccinations by the end of June.
> 
> Canada now stands at 5th in the world for vaccinations. Great job on first doses, but now we need to move forward on 2nd doses.
> 
> With a purchase of 400 million doses, we should be vaccinating the second doses at a faster rate, but that is a Provincial responsibility.
> 
> Ontario is finally starting to set up mobile vaccinations.


We're still supply constrained, not vaccination capacity constrained.

The important thing with those 400 million doses (more than 10x the population) is that we simply don't have them.

Yeah, Ontario is setting up mobile vaccinations, because we finally have enough for that to make sense.


----------



## like_to_retire

gibor365 said:


> As per today 7,925,277 , Thus, today by far more than 60% of adults already got 1 dose!
> So, i don't get what Ford is talking about....look like he has some basic math problems LOL


If I look at the site I see 57% having one dose, so I think they expect to get to 60% fairly soon.


----------



## gibor365

like_to_retire said:


> If I look at the site I see 57% having one dose, so I think they expect to get to 60% fairly soon.
> 
> View attachment 21708


ltr, 57% for ages 12+ , Ford said specifically "60% of adults", so 18+ ...thus we more than surpassed 60%!
Telling you, Ford has a problem with math... 2 months in Humber college wasn't enough LOL


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> ltr, 57% for ages 12+ , Ford said specifically "60% of adults", so 18+ ...thus we more than surpassed 60%!
> Telling you, Ford has a problem with math... 2 months in Humber college wasn't enough LOL


 ...even he does as you claim, the 3 stages re-opening plan for Ontario will start on June 14. Better pray those ICU numbers continue to drop otherwise the re-opening plan can get modified between now and then. No math required either.

Btw, the golf forums + other outdoor amenities you so desperately want to attend are now open:

Golf courses, other outdoor amenities reopen in Ontario today

Shouldn't you be out there than in-here?


----------



## like_to_retire

Beaver101 said:


> Shouldn't you be out there than in-here?


He's posting on his smartphone from the 9th tee.

ltr


----------



## gibor365

like_to_retire said:


> He's posting on his smartphone from the 9th tee.
> 
> ltr


LOL

Actually i booked for Monday,,,, got last spot


----------



## like_to_retire

gibor365 said:


> Actually i booked for Monday,,,, got last spot


We don't expect any reduction in your forum posting during the game.

ltr


----------



## gibor365

like_to_retire said:


> We don't expect any reduction in your forum posting during the game.
> 
> ltr


Sure! Unless james4beach/supermodertor2 won't ban me again for some artificial reason (like "hostility toward immigrants" LOL


----------



## gibor365

From Roman Baber, the only honest MPP who cares about people life, on opposite from the government who cares just about numbers (that they cannot calculate correctly)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1396074497611022336


----------



## gibor365

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1396074940416331783


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> From Roman Baber, the only honest MPP who cares about people life, on opposite from the government who cares just about numbers (that they cannot calculate correctly)
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1396074497611022336


I think you should be able to disagree.
However I think if we didn't have lockdowns COVID deaths would be higher.

I think balancing COVID is an impossible problem. I think that international travel bans and a stricter lockdown at the beginning would have been better.


----------



## sags

What do drug overdose deaths have to do with COVID ?

People with COVID get sick enough to go to the hospital for treatment. 

People overdosing are passing out while paramedics try to save their lives on the sidewalk.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Yeah, I am pretty sure the drug overdose problem was with us before the pandemic and I have no doubt it will be a big problem after the pandemic.

This is just another useless comparison to lure in people who don't want to use their own minds and logic to figure out what the actual issues are. It does seem to work though. These people do tend to get re-elected using this stuff. It would be nice if people would take the time to think for themselves.


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> From Roman Baber, the only honest MPP who cares about people life, on opposite from the government who cares just about numbers (that they cannot calculate correctly)


Honest, really? .... from the MPP who has been caught in the past lying about "his" numbers?


----------



## andrewf

KaeJS said:


> I have tried to stay away from this thread (and frankly, I think I've done quite a good job at that) but I just can't take this anymore.
> 
> Word/Rumour on the street is we will all be wearing masks in Ontario until the end of the year.
> 
> Are we completely braindead?
> 
> I hate this country more and more every single day.
> 
> I am honestly so ashamed to be Canadian.
> I can't understand how we, as a nation, accept these rules.
> 
> Trudeau and Ford are both complete morons.


You need to get your head screwed on straight. Wearing a mask is no big deal, and if you want to waste your energy fixating on it, you deserve the resulting unhappiness.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> You need to get your head screwed on straight. Wearing a mask is no big deal, and if you want to waste your energy fixating on it, you deserve the resulting unhappiness.


Masks are a minor issue, lockdown is a major


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> What do drug overdose deaths have to do with COVID ?


Isolation is correlated to drug abuse.
Lockdowns >> isolation >> more drug abuse >> more drug overdose deaths.

This is why a big part of the current drug treatment strategy is destygmatization.


Come on, you know this.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Isolation is correlated to drug abuse.
> Lockdowns >> isolation >> more drug abuse >> more drug overdose deaths.
> 
> This is why a big part of the current drug treatment strategy is destygmatization.
> 
> 
> Come on, you know this.


He pretend that he doesn't 
For example, we consume much more alcohol because of lockdown.... others use drugs...

During lockdowns alcohol sales boomed








COVID-19 Alcohol Sales In Canada Are Booming & Ottawa Public Health Is Worried


If you’ve found yourself drinking a little more booze while staying at home recently, you’re apparently not the only one! Ottawa Public Health is now urging Canadians to practice sensible drinking habits, as COVID-19 alcohol sales in Canada have boomed. To keep us on the straight-and-narrow...




www.narcity.com


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> He pretend that he doesn't
> For example, we consume much more alcohol because of lockdown.... others use drugs...
> 
> During lockdowns alcohol sales boomed
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Alcohol Sales In Canada Are Booming & Ottawa Public Health Is Worried
> 
> 
> If you’ve found yourself drinking a little more booze while staying at home recently, you’re apparently not the only one! Ottawa Public Health is now urging Canadians to practice sensible drinking habits, as COVID-19 alcohol sales in Canada have boomed. To keep us on the straight-and-narrow...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.narcity.com


That article was from a year ago. I'd be curious to see what the trend is like now. I think it will have moderated substantially, but still elevated.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> That article was from a year ago. I'd be curious to see what the trend is like now. I think it will have moderated substantially, but still elevated.


New article








COVID-19 shows us why Canada needs a federal alcohol act


Alcohol misuse accounts for 38 per cent of all health care costs. Canadians are drinking more. This is a perfect policy window to implement an act.




policyoptions.irpp.org


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> New article
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 shows us why Canada needs a federal alcohol act
> 
> 
> Alcohol misuse accounts for 38 per cent of all health care costs. Canadians are drinking more. This is a perfect policy window to implement an act.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> policyoptions.irpp.org


No numbers to back anything up that I saw for covid period ... just an opinion article?


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> No numbers to back anything up that I saw for covid period ... just an opinion article?


The numbers were in article I posted above (for the 1st wave).... No any reason that numbers are decreased, but on opposite


----------



## gibor365

Another study shows that lockdown caused more deaths than Covid.... Posting it in full as you this is article you have to pay in order to read 
I just don't get why people are trying to ignore facts....
*Circumstances of COVID-19 pandemic killed far more people than originally thought. Ontario scientists have charted the real numbers*
_PATTY WINSA MAY 20, 2021
Patty Winsa

There has been a nearly 13 per cent increase in deaths in Ontario during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, with a significant proportion of those excess deaths due to causes other than the SARS-CoV-2 virus, according to cremation data obtained and analyzed by Ontario’s Science Advisory Table.

Nearly 81,000 people were cremated in 2020 compared to a yearly average of 71,625 from 2017 to 2019.

The pandemic “has influenced so many aspects of our (lives),” that it’s difficult to pinpoint one factor causing the excess deaths, said Gemma Postill, the study’s lead author.

Ontario began categorizing cremation records electronically in 2017, allowing Postill to search the database for any deaths mentioning COVID-19.

When researchers removed deaths caused by the virus, they found that the overall number of weekly deaths from January to December of 2020 had increased by 12.8 per cent among those who were cremated.

The cremation data also shows that from March to May of 2020, during the first wave, more than 50 per cent of the 3,505 excess deaths were due to non-COVID illnesses, which the study suggests could be related to under-diagnosed cases of the virus.

But from August to December of 2020, in the early part of the second wave when there was more frequent testing, non-COVID deaths accounted for about 70 per cent of the 3,812 excess deaths during that time period.

More recently, about a quarter of excess deaths from January to March of this year were attributable to causes other than COVID-19, according to the report.

During that time period, 21,379 people were cremated compared to the 19,000 or so cremations that are typical for January to March in the base years.

Postill pointed to new research showing a large jump in Ontario’s monthly opioid-related deaths as just one cause for the increase in deaths.

The excess deaths could also reflect the impact of delays in cancer and cardiac care, according to the report.

In some months, the data also showed there were noticeable increases in certain age groups.

In April and May of 2020, noted Postill, a rise in deaths among those 85 and over could be attributed to the outbreaks in Ontario’s long-term-care facilities.

The study also found that, during both waves of the pandemic, people aged 65 and older, represented the largest proportion of the excess deaths, with the youngest age group, those 44 years and younger, accounting for the biggest increase in excess deaths compared to the pre-pandemic data.

To measure the increase, the study, published by the advisory panel Wednesday, compared the number of weekly cremations during 2020 to a baseline average of weekly cremation data from 2017 to 2019.

As 70 per cent of Ontarians choose to be cremated, and the vast majority of cremations happen within three weeks of a death, the study authors opted to use the data, because it provides immediate insight into mortality rates, explained Postill.

Burial practices didn’t change during the pandemic.

Postill said the study is based on Statistics Canada’s preliminary mortality data for the first wave of the pandemic, which showed the percentage of Ontarians being cremated “stayed remarkably stable through the pandemic, even when mortality increased.”

Statistics Canada mortality data, meanwhile, lags by about five months because of “routine data verification processes needed for official Vital Statistics records,” according to the report.









COVID-19 pandemic and its effects killed far more people than originally thought. Ontario scientists have charted the real numbers


Nearly 81,000 people were cremated in 2020 compared to an annual average of 71,625 from 2017 to 2019. A significant proportion of those excess deaths ...




www.thestar.com




_


----------



## MrMatt

The thing is alcohol consumption is not a problem, it's abuse that's a problem.

But the government is okay allowing and relaxing restrictions on tobacco and marijuana, and even proposing weakening restrictions on other drugs that have very high abuse potential

Finally that opinion piece doesn't suggest what new restrictions they'd put in the federal law.
It's pretty pointless.

What, you'll only be able to buy a certain amount? stockpile a certain amount?
It's binge drinking that causes more of the issues.

A glass of wine every night has minimal impact, 4 bottles of wine in one night is problematic.


----------



## Beaver101

cainvest said:


> Honest, really? .... from the MPP who has been caught in the past lying about "his" numbers?


 ... that MPP and his "followers" are equivalent to this bunch:










Worth a dime for a dozen.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... that MPP and his "followers" are equivalent to this bunch:
> 
> Worth a dime for a dozen.


You can make that comparison for almost any elected/appointed individual.


----------



## sags

Cremations have likely increased because people couldn't hold funerals.

There isn't much sense paying for all the costs of burial when people can't even be at the service.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> You can make that comparison for almost any elected/appointed individual.


 ... very correct. I think I need a nastier picture for that MPP and his cult so he can stand out.


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> Another study shows that lockdown caused more deaths than Covid....


Does it show lockdown caused more deaths than covid? Are you suggesting that the overall deaths in Canada would have been lower with no lockdowns?


----------



## sags

Top medical advisory group to Ontario government goes public. The government didn't listen to what the experts were telling them.

The question is.......whose advice was guiding the government's decisions ?



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/covid-pandemic-health-officials-1.6031132


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Top medical advisory group to Ontario government goes public. The government didn't listen to what the experts were telling them.
> 
> The question is.......whose advice was guiding the government's decisions ?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/covid-pandemic-health-officials-1.6031132


The article doesn't say that.
The reality is that the government can't run according to only a single perspective.

Those particular people gave their opinion, then the decisionmakers decided, that is how our system works.
If you wanted those particular people in charge, you should have voted for them.

Really I think a viral epidemiologist is ill suited to understand the economic impacts, or even the practical implications of trying to enforce the policies they'd like.

It's also lazy and inappropriate for the elected representatives to simply hand over to a particular expert. Remember there were experts saying lockdowns and COVID19 restrictions were not necessary or effective. 
Dr Tam was one of these, she said travel restrictions don't work. yet the provinces experts said they do work. Whos' right? Who gets to make the calls? The elected representatives do, they listen to these experts, who don't all agree, and listen to other perspectives and concerns, then move forward.

You've got an insane partisan bias, and I think there is anything Doug Ford would do that you would approve of, simply because he's a Conservative.


----------



## sags

If he wasn't going to listen to them, why did he put them on an advisory panel ?

Oh wait..........so he could say he was following the science.........when he wasn't.

Very tricky ploy Mr. Ford..........but you got busted by your own appointed panel.


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> What is the vaccination rate in Manitoba ?
> 
> The positive infection rate is 16% in Winnipeg and 14% elsewhere.
> 
> They are in a crisis mode and asking Trudeau to send doctors and nurses. They are shipping patients to Ontario. They expect it to get worse.
> 
> It doesn't appear to me that vaccinations are having much effect there.
> 
> As one of their doctors said........vaccinations are NOT immunity. One vaccination offers limited protection and fully vaccinated provides more.
> 
> Fully vaccinated people can get infected and spread the virus. They get sick but are less likely to die from covid.
> 
> The vaccines fight the virus AFTER it enters a body. They aren't a security blanket that keeps the virus away.
> 
> People are falsely confident the vaccines give them some kind of magical immunity.


Winnipeg and MB have a giant sized and impoverished aboriginal population. Covid spreads like wildfire in that community . Interesting MB has had some of the most restrictive restrictions and lockdowns and it ihas the highest North American rates of covid. East/west travellers are subject to quarantine and Winnipeg's airport is closed to international flights. Mb isn't really a top destination on most people's travel plans. I guess it is an enigma. May-be Trudeau should ban all Canadian travel to and from Manitoba? That seems to be his strategy.


----------



## sags

Manitoba was the first Province to remove restrictions in December 2020. They removed more restrictions in March 2021.

They did this despite being warned by the doctors in Manitoba not to do so.

The current crisis was avoidable and is an example of what happens when you declare victory and remove restrictions too soon.

Premier Pallister has the lowest popular rating of any Premier in Canada.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/brian-pallister-probe-research-approval-rating-1.5973402











Manitoba relaxing some public health orders starting Friday


The Manitoba government announced the next phase of reopening on Tuesday, which includes changes to group gatherings, and capacity limits at places of worship.



winnipeg.ctvnews.ca


----------



## sags

There are two options.

Start fully vaccinating everyone.......or keep the restrictions in place.

The single dose of vaccine is not very effective, especially against the dominant variants.

We see in Japan and other countries another wave of infections from the variants.

The worst scenario is to give people 1/2 the vaccination and remove restrictions. That is just asking for more intense waves of COVID.


----------



## moderator2

gibor365 said:


> Sure! Unless james4beach/supermodertor2 won't ban me again for some artificial reason (like "hostility toward immigrants" LOL


Your most recent ban was from another moderator, nothing to do with me.


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> The single dose of vaccine is not very effective, especially against the dominant variants


Oh?


----------



## gibor365

moderator2 said:


> Your most recent ban was from another moderator, nothing to do with me.


Then It was surprising to get 1 month ban from cainvest for telling that "there are many immigrants in Mississauga from shithole countries" ... Where do you see "hostility toward immigrants"?! Is it crime to call countries like Syria or Pakistan shitholes?! Or in moderator's opinion they are top countries?! james even if it wasn't you, you knew perfevctly what happened! btw, you called Russia "shithole" and it was OK, right?!


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> Are you suggesting that the overall deaths in Canada would have been lower with no lockdowns?


In a long run for sure!


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> In a long run for sure!


lol, not sure how you'd qualify that ... you're basically saying more deaths are a good thing?


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> lol, not sure how you'd qualify that ... you're basically saying more deaths are a good thing?


I'm just saying that lockdown in long run causes more deaths than Covid itself .... I'm not saying that deaths are a good thing.
I also think that lockdown gonna be devastating for our society and I support The Great Barrington declaration
_Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice. _- they didn't even talk about extreme Ontario stay-at-home crap!








Great Barrington Declaration and Petition


As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection




gbdeclaration.org


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> I'm just saying that lockdown in long run causes more deaths than Covid itself .... I'm saying that deaths are a good thing


Guess we'll just have to disagree, I personally don't want to see more people die for covid or anything else.


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> Guess we'll just have to disagree, I personally don't want to see more people die for covid or anything else.


I edited my misspelled sentence " I'm not saying that deaths are a good thing. ". I'm saying that lockdown causes more deaths than Covid.

Just read The Great Barrington declaration signed by really the top health professionals in the field..... but you would probably argue that Dr Williams and Tam are more credible LOL


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> I edited my misspelled sentence " I'm not saying that deaths are a good thing. ". I'm saying that lockdown causes more deaths than Covid.


Kinda wondered about you saying "deaths are a good thing" ... 

I'm sure it'll be argued about for a long time but we've seen first hand that over-running the health care system with covid patients produces very bad results. Flooding hospitals with covid patients (due to no restrictions) isn't going to help people that need other treatments.


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> Kinda wondered about you saying "deaths are a good thing" ...
> 
> I'm sure it'll be argued about for a long time but we've seen first hand that over-running the health care system with covid patients produces very bad results. Flooding hospitals with covid patients (due to no restrictions) isn't going to help people that need other treatments.


So maybe our health system needs improvement?! I was talking for ages that OHIP is disaster.
Also, government was scaring us with Triage protocol ....imho, nothing wrong with it ... Level 1 Triage protocol discharge from ICUs 85 + who with 80% probability is going to die within 1 year anyway (so mostly very old vegetables or dementia ) ... maybe for them death is a good thing


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> In a long run for sure!


 ... this is the most asinine response.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> So maybe our health system needs improvement?! I was talking for ages that OHIP is disaster.


 .. and yet you're still living here in Ontario. Why is it that? I mean there are so many other countries that have health systems way better than ours ... eg. Russia, Israel, USA, hell even Cuba!



> Also, government was scaring us with Triage protocol ....imho, nothing wrong with it ... Level 1 Triage protocol discharge from ICUs 85 + who with 80% probability is going to die within 1 year anyway (so mostly very old vegetables or dementia ) ... maybe for them death is a good thing


 .. yeah, as long as it doesn't include you and your loved ones, right? Another asinined response.


----------



## Spudd

Even if lockdown seemingly caused more deaths than Covid in the past year (which I haven't seen evidence of), it presumably also prevented a ton of Covid deaths. There's no way to quantify how many. The public health experts apparently believe we came out ahead by having lockdowns vs not, since they are still recommending them in high-case areas.


----------



## gibor365

*'An incredible milestone:' More than 65 per cent of Toronto adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination*








'An incredible milestone:' More than 65 per cent of Toronto adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination


More than 60 per cent of Toronto adults have now received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine.



toronto.ctvnews.ca





As per Ford "reopening" plan, Phase 1 starts 2 weeks after we reach 60% (that we did about week ago). So, next week , Phase 1 should be in action.... However, our government keeps silence ! I have impression that they just enjoy stay-at-home lockdown


----------



## MrMatt

Spudd said:


> Even if lockdown seemingly caused more deaths than Covid in the past year (which I haven't seen evidence of), it presumably also prevented a ton of Covid deaths. There's no way to quantify how many. The public health experts apparently believe we came out ahead by having lockdowns vs not, since they are still recommending them in high-case areas.


Ahh the curse of success.
If we were really successful at stopping COVID we'd have almost no deaths, so clearly COVID19 wasn't as big of a problem, so obviously we overreacted.
If we were not successful, we'd have had a lot of deaths, so obviously whatever we did was justfied because COVID was so bad.


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> As per Ford "reopening" plan, Phase 1 starts 2 weeks after we reach 60% (that we did about week ago). So, next week , Phase 1 should be in action.... However, our government keeps silence ! I have impression that they just enjoy stay-at-home lockdown


You running out of things to complain about? You want them to keep you informed about something that isn't supposed to happen for another week?


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> *'An incredible milestone:' More than 65 per cent of Toronto adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'An incredible milestone:' More than 65 per cent of Toronto adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination
> 
> 
> More than 60 per cent of Toronto adults have now received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine.
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As per Ford "reopening" plan, Phase 1 starts 2 weeks after we reach 60% (that we did about week ago). So, next week , Phase 1 should be in action.... However, our government keeps silence ! I have impression that they just enjoy stay-at-home lockdown


They said 2 weeks after the milestone is reached to allow anti-bodies to build.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> They said 2 weeks after the milestone is reached to allow anti-bodies to build.


True! So, they need to announce the date! Hence stay-at-home order they extend 2-3 weeks every time before due date.
And 2 weeks after 60% adult got 1st dose should be beginning of the next week


----------



## sags

Probably they meant 60% of population fully vaccinated.

If that isn't what they meant........it is what they should have meant.


----------



## sags

Manitoba doctors are calling for mandatory stay at home orders. They are past the crisis point and being overwhelmed with COVID cases.

The hospitals are full of COVID patients and 20,000 people are waiting for surgeries. Only the most dire, immediate life threatening surgeries are done.

People are dying waiting for surgeries to open up, because COVID is overwhelming the hospitals and staff.

They say the new variants are different. They are more infectious and deadlier. I believe Nova Scotia has also locked down after an outbreak.

Everywhere they open up.......they get another wave of the pandemic. We should be learning from the mistakes..........not continually repeating them.

Even in Australia........they got a couple of new cases and BOOM........mandatory lockdowns.

Japan opened up and they are now a mess and frantically trying to get people vaccinated.

As one doctor said......people think the vaccinations are a cure but they aren't. People still get infected, sick and spread the virus.

We have to start planning for lockdowns until there are no cases of the virus anywhere in Canada.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/covid-19-stay-home-order-non-essential-businesses-manitoba-1.6038915


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> We have to start planning for lockdowns until there are no cases of the virus anywhere in Canada.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/covid-19-stay-home-order-non-essential-businesses-manitoba-1.6038915


People won't accept anymore lockdowns.
Unless things are truly dire, the politicians won't risk it.

We already have widespread civil disobedience of lockdown measures, and it's growing.

The politicians have to respect the will of the people, and focus on what they can control.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Probably they meant 60% of population fully vaccinated.
> 
> If that isn't what they meant........it is what they should have meant.


No! It was explicitly said 2 weeks after "60% of adult population receive 1st dose"


----------



## sags

Yea......pretty sure it was a typo......or maybe a clerical error.

It should have read....."after 60% of adult population receive 2nd dose"

Just replace "1st" with "2nd" and you are all set and up to date.


----------



## gibor365

> People are dying waiting for surgeries to open up, because COVID is overwhelming the hospitals and staff.


 This is why Triage Protocol Level 1 should be in place


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Yea......pretty sure it was a typo.


Yeah, sure....you are funny :LOL



> *Step 1: 60 per cent of adults vaccinated with one dose.*
> *Step 2:* 70 per cent of adults vaccinated with one dose and 20 per cent vaccinated with two doses.
> *Step 3:* 70 to 80 per cent of adults vaccinated with one dose and 25 per cent vaccinated with two doses.
> Based on current trends in key health indicators, including the provincial vaccination rate, the government expects to enter *Step One of the Roadmap the week of June 14, 2021*. The province will confirm closer to the expected start of Step One.


How the Hell they calculated week of June 14 , if we got already* 65% of adults vaccinated with one dose.!!!!
This government is truly a group of retards*


----------



## Spudd

gibor365 said:


> How the Hell they calculated week of June 14 , if we got already* 65% of adults vaccinated with one dose.!!!!
> This government is truly a group of retards*


The fine print says it also depends on ICU usage, case numbers, and other metrics. Probably those won't be low enough until June 14 based on the current trend.


----------



## gibor365

Spudd said:


> The fine print says it also depends on ICU usage, case numbers, and other metrics. Probably those won't be low enough until June 14 based on the current trend.


I didn't see the fine print is talking about it....and if it does - the Ontario government is just cheating


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> Manitoba doctors are calling for mandatory stay at home orders. They are past the crisis point and being overwhelmed with COVID cases.
> 
> The hospitals are full of COVID patients and 20,000 people are waiting for surgeries. Only the most dire, immediate life threatening surgeries are done.
> 
> People are dying waiting for surgeries to open up, because COVID is overwhelming the hospitals and staff.
> 
> They say the new variants are different. They are more infectious and deadlier. I believe Nova Scotia has also locked down after an outbreak.
> 
> Everywhere they open up.......they get another wave of the pandemic. We should be learning from the mistakes..........not continually repeating them.
> 
> Even in Australia........they got a couple of new cases and BOOM........mandatory lockdowns.
> 
> Japan opened up and they are now a mess and frantically trying to get people vaccinated.
> 
> As one doctor said......people think the vaccinations are a cure but they aren't. People still get infected, sick and spread the virus.
> 
> We have to start planning for lockdowns until there are no cases of the virus anywhere in Canada.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/covid-19-stay-home-order-non-essential-businesses-manitoba-1.6038915


Updates on whats going on in Israel and the UK?

I'll save the google search.

Israel: Population 9 million
7 day average for cases: 30 (3 daily cases per million people)

UK: Population : 67 million
7 day average for cases: 2073 (31 daily cases per million people)


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> Updates on whats going on in Israel and the UK?
> 
> I'll save the google search.
> 
> Israel: Population 9 million
> 7 day average for cases: 30 (3 daily cases per million people)
> 
> UK: Population : 67 million
> 7 day average for cases: 2073 (31 daily cases per million people)


Canada 104 daily cases per million people.
US 77 daily cases per million people
Texas alone 56 daily cases per million people (with no any restrictions)


----------



## Bananatron

gibor365 said:


> Canada 104 daily cases per million people.
> US 77 daily cases per million people
> Texas alone 56 daily cases per million people (with no any restrictions)


Yup, this is transitioning from a pandemic to an annoyance very quickly. Once the hospitals are no longer threatened by being overloaded (and with 60% of the population protected by natural immunity, age, and first doses of vaccines, we will be there very shortly as a country) there will be no justification for and appetite by the public for, restrictions and masks. These are the final lockdown waves we are currently in.


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> Canada 104 daily cases per million people.
> US 77 daily cases per million people


Exactly, there are still elevated cases in Canada. This is why masks and restrictions are still needed in Canada, until the case numbers drop lower and until hospitalizations come down.

I'm not sure why you have so much trouble understanding this gibor. There is still widespread community "spread" in most parts of Canada and the hospitals are still under heavy load. The point will come when the numbers reduce enough to ease all restrictions, but we're not there yet.

Vaccination is going along very fast now, and it will be roughly 2-3 weeks until people currently being vaccinated have immunity. That means roughly July before a significant number of Canadians have vaccine immunity, which should reduce the community spread.


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> Yeah, sure....you are funny :LOL
> 
> 
> 
> How the Hell they calculated week of June 14 , if we got already* 65% of adults vaccinated with one dose.!!!!
> This government is truly a group of retards*


I believe the province was at 55 or 57% when the announcement was made. According to the Government of Ontario source, we’re at 59.597% of eligible Ontarions who have had one shot. So according to their data, we’re not at 60 at this moment. two weeks from now, is June 8. I think the day will move, especially if we stay with 1000 cases per day, as we did today. I think the inclusion of 12-17 eligible people is screwing with their numbers. 






COVID-19 Tracker Canada - Provincial Vaccination Tracker


Near real-time vaccination data for each province in Canada.



covid19tracker.ca


----------



## milhouse

BC Health officer describing Step 4 of the province's reopening targeted for Sept 7:
"We can have larger gatherings where we can have audiences. So a rock concert or _hopefully, watching the Canucks maybe even get into the playoffs next year_."

Zing!


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> Yup, this is transitioning from a pandemic to an annoyance very quickly. Once the hospitals are no longer threatened by being overloaded (and with 60% of the population protected by natural immunity, age, and first doses of vaccines, we will be there very shortly as a country) there will be no justification for and appetite by the public for, restrictions and masks. * These are the final lockdown waves we are currently in.*


 ... pray so otherwise see sags' post #4897 re other countries' experience with no or uplifted lockdowns.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> Exactly, there are still elevated cases in Canada. This is why masks and restrictions are still needed in Canada, until the case numbers drop lower and until hospitalizations come down.
> 
> *I'm not sure why you have so much trouble understanding this gibor.* There is still widespread community "spread" in most parts of Canada and the hospitals are still under heavy load. The point will come when the numbers reduce enough to ease all restrictions, but we're not there yet.
> 
> Vaccination is going along very fast now, and it will be roughly 2-3 weeks until people currently being vaccinated have immunity. That means roughly July before a significant number of Canadians have vaccine immunity, which should reduce the community spread.


 ... 'cause he enjoys trolling here instead on the golf and tennis courts he so desperately wanted to be at.


----------



## Retired Peasant

gibor365 said:


> More than 65 per cent of *Toronto *adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination
> As per Ford "reopening" plan, Phase 1 starts 2 weeks after we reach 60% (that we did about week ago).





gibor365 said:


> No! It was explicitly said 2 weeks after "60% of adult population receive 1st dose"


Newsflash...There's more to Ontario than Toronto. Also a reminder that half of the doses destined to other areas were sent to GTA. They are playing catchup outside of TO. There are still some aged 70+ who are just now getting their vaccine because their appointment was cancelled a couple of weeks ago.


----------



## sags

The origin of this virus from a lab leak in Wuhan is looking less like a conspiracy story than the truth, as more information is leaking out.

It is known that several Wuhan researchers went to the hospital with COVID like symptoms before the pandemic broke out.

Some doctors that treated them became infected and died.

After initially claiming a lab leak was very unlikely, Dr. Fauci has now admitted it was possible and that his organization was funding "gain of function" experiments on this virus at Wuhan.

He also said he wanted the research to continue, which explains his initial reluctance to accept the origin came from the lab.

WHO is now admitting they spent only a couple of hours in the lab investigating and did not have access to any of the original researchers and doctors.

They have all disappeared or died from COVID.

One expert described the likely scenario as an accidental lab leak followed by a criminal coverup by China that caused a global pandemic.

China is blocking all efforts of more investigation and coming up with ridiculous theories that the virus started in other countries.

Scientists say they need to know the origin of the virus to prevent future outbreaks.

The public needs to know exactly what the scientists are doing in these high level labs.

Even if this type of research is as critical as Dr. Fauci claims it to be, the question still remains if the research should be conducted in a lab that doesn't deploy the most basic security protocols.....let alone the level of security protocols required for this type of work.

I am always reminded of the wise words of my grandmother years ago........we aren't as smart as we think we are.









The Wuhan Lab Leak Question: A Disused Chinese Mine Takes Center Stage


That Covid escaped from a lab isn’t the predominant hypothesis for the pandemic’s origins, yet prominent scientists are calling for a deeper probe and clearer answers from Beijing.




www.wsj.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> China is blocking all efforts of more investigation and coming up with ridiculous theories that the virus started in other countries.
> 
> Scientists say they need to know the origin of the virus to prevent future outbreaks.


So you ready to start calling it "The China Virus" like Trump yet?


----------



## sags

I would call it the Wuhan Lab virus, but not if I was the President of the US......whose words matter a lot more than mine.


----------



## sags

At first, like most people I believed the governmental health "experts" who were presenting the information to the public along with their recommendations.

When ER and ICU doctors and nurses started coming forward with conflicting versions of what is happening in the hospitals..........I started to listen to them.

We have a situation where the ER/ICU doctors are saying they are dealing with a disaster while government officials happily announce removing restrictions.

There is a disconnect on the public messaging and people will have to choose who they believe. I already know who I beleive.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> At first, like most people I believed the governmental health "experts" who were presenting the information to the public along with their recommendations.
> 
> When ER and ICU doctors and nurses started coming forward with conflicting versions of what is happening in the hospitals..........I started to listen to them.
> 
> We have a situation where the ER/ICU doctors are saying they are dealing with a disaster while government officials happily announce removing restrictions.
> 
> There is a disconnect on the public messaging and people will have to choose who they believe. I already know who I beleive.


You seem to think there is a conflict where one of the groups isn't being truthful wrt the public health measures. That is completely wrong.

The doctors and nurses want one thing.
The people want another.

The government has to mediate between these two groups, and the people are in charge.
It really doesn't matter what doctors, or the political leaders want. The best they can do is try to guide people towards acting a certain way. But if the people say no, it's not gonna happen.

You don't seem to understand that in a democracy, what the people want is going to happen. Being factually correct comes in second to the whims of the mob.


----------



## sags

Despite what the vaccine experts are saying, including the manufacturers, we have entered the realm of make believe.

It could be called the "one shot miracle". When enough people get one shot of vaccine......we are saved and can remove all restrictions and return to normal.

The CBC showed a segment on Nashville and Memphis, Tennessee yesterday. The place is packed with people, including a jam packed Grand Old Opry house.

Mask wearing is optional (nobody wore them) and there is no social distancing. The bars and restaurants are packed to the rafters. It is party time in Memphis.

And yet, Tennessee has one of the lowest rates of vaccinations in the US. We have reached a new level of collective stupidity.

It comes as no surprise that Tennessee elected two Trumpsters as Senators and is deeply Republican.

Opening up fully with no level of protection is gambling with people's lives.


----------



## sags

Interesting that the Premier of Manitoba Pallister was reluctant to issue real restrictions and left it to suggestions to the public to adhere to.

Yesterday, with the hospitals full and infections continuing to rise, he said he had no sympathy for the infected sick people who had flaunted his make believe restrictions.

Sure...now that hospitals are overflowing and surgeries are backed up to over 20,000 people and cancer and other patients can't receive care.....he blames the people.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> .....he blames the people.


And he's right.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... pray so otherwise see sags' post #4897 re other countries' experience with no or uplifted lockdowns.


I don't need to pray.

Of course lifting lockdowns with the absence of immunity from vaccines is eventually going to lead to outbreaks. 

Even once we get everyone vaccinated with two shots, we're still going to see localized outbreaks in scientific research hotspots where they don't trust the vaccines and didn't take it.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Interesting that the Premier of Manitoba Pallister was reluctant to issue real restrictions and left it to suggestions to the public to adhere to.
> 
> Yesterday, with the hospitals full and infections continuing to rise, he said he had no sympathy for the infected sick people who had flaunted his make believe restrictions.
> 
> Sure...now that hospitals are overflowing and surgeries are backed up to over 20,000 people and cancer and other patients can't receive care.....he blames the people.


Of course, he tells them what they should do, they don't do it, it's their fault.

What do you want him to do?
Really, the people are already protesting, Ontario tried to give police additional powers, they refused them.

The reality is that the people have decided the highly restrictive lockdowns are over, and the governments can't force them unless it gets really really bad.

Sorry even Trudeau telling everyone to stay home won't work (heck, even last year he couldn't give up on those trips the the cottage)


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> I don't need to pray.
> 
> Of course lifting lockdowns with the absence of immunity from vaccines is eventually going to lead to outbreaks.
> 
> Even once we get everyone vaccinated with two shots, *we're still going to see localized outbreaks in scientific research hotspots where they don't trust the vaccines and didn't take it.*


 ... I'm not following your sense as to why we''ll only be seeing outbreaks at "scientific research hotspots"? If the Covid-virus is not going to be tamed (or as closely as being eradicated), we're going to see outbreaks again, anywhere.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> I would call it the Wuhan Lab virus, but not if I was the President of the US......whose words matter a lot more than mine.


 ... you guys can call it whatever you want but the virus belongs to just about everyone now.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... I'm not following your sense as to why we''ll only be seeing outbreaks at "scientific research hotspots"? If the Covid-virus is not going to be tamed (or as closely as being eradicated), we're going to see outbreaks again, anywhere.


We'll be seeing outbreaks amongst the unvaccinated communities. The scientific research hotspot comment was tongue in cheek.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> So you ready to start calling it "The China Virus" like Trump yet?


Why not?! If we call UK variant, Brazilian variant, South Africa variant , why it's not politically correct to call it Chinese virus ?!


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> I would call it the Wuhan Lab virus, but not if I was the President of the US......whose words matter a lot more than mine.


Call it the Wuhan Flu like Borat did in his last movie LOL


----------



## gibor365

> This is why masks and restrictions are still needed in Canada, until the case numbers drop lower and until hospitalizations come down.
> 
> I'm not sure why you have so much trouble understanding this gibor.


Lockdowns causing more deaths and damage than Covid itself. I'm not sure why you have so much trouble understanding this.
And I care about masks much less ...


----------



## sags

The other viruses originated naturally or are mutations.

The COVID was "created" in the lab in Wuhan so it is rightfully the "wuhan lab virus" or WLV........for those who like acronyms.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> I believe the province was at 55 or 57% when the announcement was made. According to the Government of Ontario source, we’re at 59.597% of eligible Ontarions who have had one shot. So according to their data, we’re not at 60 at this moment. two weeks from now, is June 8. I think the day will move, especially if we stay with 1000 cases per day, as we did today. I think the inclusion of 12-17 eligible people is screwing with their numbers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Tracker Canada - Provincial Vaccination Tracker
> 
> 
> Near real-time vaccination data for each province in Canada.
> 
> 
> 
> covid19tracker.ca


As per link you posted
*60.450%*
*of people 12+ in Ontario have received at least one dose* .

We need 60% of *ADULTS *who *have received at least one dose! So , even if you count 12-17 y.o. kids, we already overpassed 60% threshold.*
And when you consider 12-17 kids, that are approx. 7-8% of total population, we passed 60% threshold about 1 week ago


----------



## sags

gibor365 said:


> Lockdowns causing more deaths and damage than Covid itself. I'm not sure why you have so much trouble understanding this.
> And I care about masks much less ...


Delayed surgeries and healthcare are caused by COVID patients using all the available healthcare........not lock downs.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Why not?! If we call UK variant, Brazilian variant, South Africa variant , why it's not politically correct to call it Chinese virus ?!


 ... yes as said by a smuck.


----------



## sags

According to that chart Gibor, Ontario has received 2 million more doses of Pfizer than they have administered.

What is going on there ? Personally, I don't consider the statistics compiled by Provinces as very accurate.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> According to that chart Gibor, Ontario has received 2 million more doses of Pfizer than they have administered.
> 
> What is going on there ? Personally, I don't consider the statistics compiled by Provinces as very accurate.


Why you are surprised?! It's written that Ontario administered 83.6% of doses delivered, so if you multiply the number, everything should match.


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> As per link you posted
> *60.450%*
> *of people 12+ in Ontario have received at least one dose* .
> 
> We need 60% of *ADULTS *who *have received at least one dose! So , even if you count 12-17 y.o. kids, we already overpassed 60% threshold.*
> And when you consider 12-17 kids, that are approx. 7-8% of total population, we passed 60% threshold about 1 week ago


Step 1 of the roadmap will begin when:

60% of Ontario’s adults receive at least one dose of a COVID-19covid 19 vaccine
public health indicators, such as hospitalizations, ICU occupancy and new admissions and case rates indicate the province can safely move to this step of the roadmap


----------



## Beaver101

^ Starting June 14 at earliest.


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Why you are surprised?! It's written that Ontario administered 83.6% of doses delivered, so if you multiply the number, everything should match.


You realize that 1.1 million doses were received yesterday.
May 3rd & May 17 we almost ran out.

Looks like Ontario is doing a really good job delivering the doses as fast as they arrive. (as is Quebec and BC)


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> Step 1 of the roadmap will begin when:
> 
> 60% of Ontario’s adults receive at least one dose of a COVID-19covid 19 vaccine
> *public health indicators, such as hospitalizations, ICU occupancy and new admissions and case rates indicate the province can safely move to this step of the roadmap*



But 2nd bullet is very subjective ! No any numbers for those so-called "indications"!
So, 1st bullet (that appears on the front page ) isn't relevant at all.... 
Dumb!


----------



## sags

Bring in the re-opening plan so the public knows what it is...............


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> But 2nd bullet is very subjective ! No any numbers for those so-called "indications"!
> So, 1st bullet (that appears on the front page ) isn't relevant at all....
> Dumb!


 ... only if you learn to read first. From yesterday (aka May 25, 2021, today is May 26) CP24 (simplest newspiece you can read from):

Ontario's top doctor would like to see daily COVID-19 case counts dip below 600 before reopening begins



> _Ontario’s top public health official says that *he hopes to see daily case counts dip under 600 a day *before the province enters the first stage of its reopening plan.
> 
> *The province has set June 14 as a target date to begin lifting some public health restrictions but that is conditional on vaccination rates and a continued decline in certain other indicators, such as case counts and hospitalization numbers.*
> 
> Chief Medical Officer of Health *Dr. David Williams has previously said that he would like to see case counts “well below 1,000” before the economy is gradually reopened but on Tuesday he said that the actual number he is targeting is actually “closer to 550-600 new cases a day.*” ..._


 ... or do you need some "scientific study" or an algorithm to be convinced as smart sounding? Sheesh.


----------



## Bananatron

Looks at ontarios reopening plan


Looks at albertas reopening plan. 
Snickers at @gibor365

We are currently at 59.x% of eligible people with the first shot

If we hit 70% by June 14, and cases and hospitalizations continue to decline, all restrictions are removed on June 28. No masks, full weddings, 
bars, full CFL games. 

Never been so happy to be known as the Florida of Canada.


----------



## sags

And it was a time of great feasting and merriment......


----------



## newfoundlander61

I managed to get my 2nd AZ vaccine shot last night, it feels good to have this done. Other than a sore arm today all is good. Our city got a small amount of the expiring doses and with some vaccine hunting  I managed to find one small pharmacy that had some left. Booked online and when I showed up they came out to the parking lot and gave it with me in the car. One thing I did notice is how many different booking systems are being used by the pharmacies and other sites, their are several and I can see how this could cause frustration for some.


----------



## Beaver101

newfoundlander61 said:


> I managed to get my 2nd AZ vaccine shot last night, it feels good to have this done. Other than a sore arm today all is good. Our city got a small amount of the expiring doses and with some vaccine hunting  I managed to find one small pharmacy that had some left. Booked online and when I showed up they came out to the parking lot and gave it with me in the car. *One thing I did notice is how many different booking systems are being used by the pharmacies and other sites, their are several and I can see how this could cause frustration for some.*


 ... glad to hear it is working out for you. I'm here in Toronto (the center of the Canadian universe) and there is a mass confusion with the 2nd dose bookings of AZ, primarily as you've outlined - multiple booking sites now. Provincial, pharmacies (only participating ones), pop-up sites, etc.???? One given (consistently good) though - family physicians aren't doing any the Covid vaccinations.

If that isn't bad, a family member (with health issues) just recently managed to get his "first" dose "booked".  ... first jab to be done "next month in June."

I, myself, got the first jab 2 weeks ago and got the same side-effect, sore arm mostly so can't complain here when hearing others got fevers and headaches.


----------



## Beaver101

Melbourne, Australia, set for 4th lockdown as cluster grows

*



Melbourne, Australia, set for 4th lockdown as cluster grows

Click to expand...

*


> Australia’s second-largest city is set to enter its fourth lockdown at midnight as concern grows over the rapid spread of infections from a coronavirus variant
> By ROD McGUIRK Associated Press
> 27 May 2021, 03:23 • 3 min read
> 
> ...
> _Health Minister Greg Hunt described the lockdown, which begins at midnight, as “highly regrettable, but necessary restrictions under the current circumstances.”
> 
> People will only be able to leave home to shop for food and essential items, provide or receive care, exercise, work or study if they are unable to do so from home, and to get vaccinated. Masks will be compulsory indoors and outdoors.
> 
> Cafes and restaurants will only be able to offer takeout and schools will close. Professional sports events in Melbourne will continue, but without crowds_.


 ... and I thought Australia was successful in beating Covid?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> Melbourne, Australia, set for 4th lockdown as cluster grows
> 
> ... and I thought Australia was successful in beating Covid?


They are very successful.
What makes you think they aren't?


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> They are very successful.
> What makes you think they aren't?


 ... another lockdown (about same restrictions as ours) is considered successful? Beats me how you define successful or "very" successful?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... another lockdown (about same restrictions as ours) is considered successful? Beats me how you define successful or "very" successful?


Low deathcount is one reasonable definition of success.


----------



## Spudd

Beaver101 said:


> ... another lockdown (about same restrictions as ours) is considered successful? Beats me how you define successful or "very" successful?


If you read the article, the "cluster" they are concerned about is 26 cases. By doing fast lockdowns when they have a number of cases like this, they are preventing a lot of spread and hence illnesses and deaths. 

If you define success as not having lockdowns, then I guess they are not successful. But if you define it as low case/death count then they are very successful.


----------



## Plugging Along

Beaver101 said:


> ... another lockdown (about same restrictions as ours) is considered successful? Beats me how you define successful or "very" successful?


Lockdowns are the tool to help stop spread and severe outcome They lock down very quickly. They have 26 case cluster for the city. a stupid school party had more than they didn’t even shut down the school here.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> Lockdowns are the tool to help spread and death. They lock down very quickly. They have 26 case cluster for the city. a stupid school party had more than they didn’t even shut down the school here.


yeah that also happened out east of Toronto at a school, apparently the VP sent out a nastygram to parents.

Thing is the spectrum. Australia is more more willing to accept a highly controlling government, than Canada, while the US is generally less so.
You can see it in a wide variety of things, COVID response is one of many examples.


----------



## sags

Meanwhile in Canada, the NACI is saying the increased vaccine supply should be able to shorten the wait time for 2nd doses.

They say it is important to provide protection against the variants.

Yesterday the delay time wasn't that important......but today it is.

Meanwhile back in Canada we have thousands of new infections daily and Provincial governments want to open everything up.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Meanwhile in Canada, the NACI is saying the increased vaccine supply should be able to shorten the wait time for 2nd doses.


Yup, we've already started our second shots in MB.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Yup, we've already started our second shots in MB.


And shipping COVID patients to Ontario.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Meanwhile in Canada, the NACI is saying the increased vaccine supply should be able to shorten the wait time for 2nd doses.
> 
> They say it is important to provide protection against the variants.
> 
> Yesterday the delay time wasn't that important......but today it is.


Nobody said it wasn't important.
We simply didn't have the supply.



> Meanwhile back in Canada we have thousands of new infections daily and Provincial governments want to open everything up.


No, the people want to open everything up, and we live in a democracy.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> And shipping COVID patients to Ontario.


Wonder how they're doing that with the border closed?


----------



## sags

Making difficult decisions some people don't like is what separates the men from the boys.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Wonder how they're doing that with the border closed?


Helicopter, the feds didn't close the airports. Actually medical care is "essential" anyway.

Actually LHSC in London has been accepting out of region patients for weeks, and just opened up a ward for patients from Manitoba.

Really Ontario is almost over the hump, we should help out Manitoba a bit, they're a really in trouble.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Really Ontario is almost over the hump, we should help out Manitoba a bit, they're a really in trouble.


Yup, some people not following regulations here. A few really bad stats reported a bit ago like nearly 50% of those going into the hospital for covid were never tested previously. Numbers are showing a drop now so hopefully that continues.


----------



## Money172375

2nd does to 80+ should be coming in Ontario next week.


----------



## Money172375

And wait for the 2nd dose Pfizer side effects that are much more common that the first dose of Pfizer. I’m sure it will trigger some vax hesitancy and the media will take it and run.


----------



## Beaver101

Spudd said:


> If you read the article, the "cluster" they are concerned about is 26 cases. By doing fast lockdowns when they have a number of cases like this, they are preventing a lot of spread and hence illnesses and deaths.
> 
> If you define success as not having lockdowns, then I guess they are not successful. But if you define it as low case/death count then they are very successful.


 ... okay by your explanation that sounds reasonable. But I would consider being a true success would ultimately will require no lockdown. ie. no cases. That might be asking alot though.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... okay by your explanation that sounds reasonable. But I would consider being a true success would ultimately will require no lockdown. ie. no cases. That might be asking alot though.


That can only be achieved with a vaccination campaign. Australia and other countries like it were able to manage the situation well with lockdowns without vaccinations, so their vaccination priorities are pretty low. However, with the new variants that spread quicker, they're harder to contain and it will only take a one person to start a major cluster.

It's probably why you have countries that had massive outbreaks (like the USA, ourselves) keep pushing for vaccination to try to get back to normal. However, Australia was pretty much back to normal, so they don't see the need for vaccinations. But all it takes is a massive breakthrough, and you'll see Australia scramble to get vaccinations.

From Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research, you can see the difference in countries with populations with at least 1 dose.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> And wait for the 2nd dose Pfizer side effects that are much more common that the first dose of Pfizer. I’m sure it will trigger some vax hesitancy and the media will take it and run.


That's true. Ontario has a very nice document summarizing side effects (including serious ones) from the three major vaccine brands. You can see a breakdown of side effects by their type as well.



https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-aefi-report.pdf



I got the Moderna shot today. The serious adverse event rate is about the same for Pfizer and Moderna. I'm not sure about second dose, though.


----------



## gibor365

Finally! Let's see was our "beloved" government does 








Federal advisory panel recommends end to hotel quarantine in Canada


A federal advisory panel that provides advice to the government on COVID-19 testing and screening is recommending an end to the mandatory hotel quarantine required of international travellers entering Canada.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Helicopter, the feds didn't close the airports. Actually medical care is "essential" anyway.
> 
> Actually LHSC in London has been accepting out of region patients for weeks, and just opened up a ward for patients from Manitoba.
> 
> Really Ontario is almost over the hump, we should help out Manitoba a bit, they're a really in trouble.


Ontario is clearly over the hump. The question is whether there are future humps. With high rates of vaccination, I expect this to be the last significant wave.


----------



## gibor365

gibor365 said:


> Finally! Let's see was our "beloved" government does
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Federal advisory panel recommends end to hotel quarantine in Canada
> 
> 
> A federal advisory panel that provides advice to the government on COVID-19 testing and screening is recommending an end to the mandatory hotel quarantine required of international travellers entering Canada.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


But looks like part-time drama teacher doesn't care about expert' recommendation .... hence Justine is already expert LOL


----------



## gibor365

Now we know whose fault is Covid LOL








Polish-language newspaper in Toronto blames Jews for the pandemic


B’nai Brith Canada, an organization that fights antisemitism, has filed a police complaint over the article published twice by the Głos Polski weekly.




www.jpost.com


----------



## sags

I would support the lawsuit as I believe and have steadfastly maintained that free speech must have some limits placed upon it by society.

Some will disagree and claim that free speech has no boundaries, but the newspaper article is an example of hate speech that blanket immunity creates.

The purveyors of evil are always searching for a societal weakness they can exploit to further the spreading of their toxic message.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Ontario is clearly over the hump. The question is whether there are future humps. With high rates of vaccination, I expect this to be the last significant wave.


Possible, but some US jurisdictions with similar vaccination rates were getting some pretty high spikes.
Really all you need is one pocket of anti-vaxxers to get it, and we'll have "big" numbers.


----------



## sags

I think our biggest concern is of new mutations. A recent new one that passed from dogs to humans is being watched closely. 

As the cost of natural disasters pile up and adding in costs from the pandemic, countries are being overwhelmed by the cost of it all.

That is also a problem that is going to be on the agenda of the global community.


----------



## damian13ster

Cost of the pandemic is self-inflicted. Cost of natural disasters is definitely rising up, although vast majority of it is simply the cost of assets rising.
Let's give an example of tornadoes. Historically, number of tornadoes in Oklahoma hasn't been increasing. The value of the homes on its way though have been so the cost of the damage has been increasing. Remove the inflation, that is brought on purely for debt servicing purposes, and the cost of natural disasters isn't rising.


----------



## sags

Like I posted above........new variants.

It didn't take very long for the UK and India variants to combine into a hybrid virus.

It will soon spread through Asia and then to the rest of the world.

We need to get a handle on this virus before we start removing all restrictions, especially travel restrictions.

Maybe the Chinese could tell the world what exactly it was that they created.

Dr. Fauci's testimony that he provided funding to the Wuhan lab but the Chinese scientists promised they weren't doing such work is laughable.

The Wuhan lab is run by the Chinese military. The scientists who work there do exactly what they are told to do.





__





Kennedy asks Fauci whether Wuhan lab lied: "You never know"


Watch Kennedy question NIAID Director Fauci here. WASHINGTON – Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) today questioned National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci about whether U.S. grant money could have funded gain-of-function research in Wuhan. Key exchanges from the...




www.kennedy.senate.gov













Vietnam finds hybrid of COVID-19 variants first detected in India and U.K.


Authorities in Vietnam have detected a new coronavirus variant that is a combination of the variants first detected in India and U.K. and spreads quickly by air, the health minister said on Saturday.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## gibor365

Habs played Leafs today with 2,500 fans attending.... curious if Dougie will allow fans for 7th game


----------



## sags

The scenes from Montreal were of large crowds and the Premier smiling and declaring victory over COVID at an outdoor cafe.

I hope he is right and the pandemic is over.....but I doubt it.


----------



## sags

gibor365 said:


> Habs played Leafs today with 2,500 fans attending.... curious if Dougie will allow fans for 7th game


The Indy 500 runs today with the race start at 12:45. They have capped the crowd at 135,000 fans. The year I was there it was announced at 300,000.

I was there in 1969 when I was 18 years old. It is funny there are videos of the race. I am sitting on the front straightaway and am a 'blur" in the crowd.........LOL.

The celebrities in the pre-race parade were Kirk Douglas, Jeannie C. Riley and Dan Blocker (Hoss Cartright from Bonanza).

I don't know how they expect to stop COVID spread with that size of crowd. From what I remember, everything is jam packed in tight there.









Classic Rewind: Mario Andretti wins 1969 Indianapolis 500


As we celebrate the 50th anniversary of his great Indy 500 win, what better way to relive it than through the




www.indycar.com


----------



## sags

P.S.........my buddies dad got us the tickets for the bus trip to the Indy 500. He was a retired police detective and organized some bus tours in retirement.

In Ontario the drinking age was 21 at the time, and he put us on the "party" bus. We were drunk before we got halfway to Indianapolis.

We were feeling under the weather when we got there and dealing with long lineups everywhere for everything.

About halfway through the race, we left our seats and went to a tunnel that was under the racetrack leading to the inner area. From that vantage point you could really appreciate the speed of the cars whizzing by. There was a grassy area by the tunnel and we laid down and slept for an hour or so.

After the race, we got back on the bus for the trip home and all the guys on the bus started drinking again. We slept all the way home.........LOL.

I think my buddies dad wanted to teach us a lesson. It worked as I had no interest in drinking for a few years after that.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The scenes from Montreal were of large crowds and the Premier smiling and declaring victory over COVID at an outdoor cafe.
> 
> I hope he is right and the pandemic is over.....but I doubt it.


He's wrong, but he's building political support for some very discriminatory and regressive policies he wants to push forward.


----------



## damian13ster

Texas and Florida have crowds in sports events at full capacity since beginning of march. They are doing better than US on average in cases and deaths since then.


----------



## sags

Texas and Florida led the US in cases at the first of May. I suspect they just stopped reporting the real numbers.









Florida still tops increased COVID cases despite Gov. Ron DeSantis ending emergency orders


On the day Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order suspending all local emergency orders related to the COVID-19 pandemic, Florida's coronavirus cases continue to be the highest in the country.




www.wptv.com


----------



## damian13ster

You can't just disregard any data you dislike as 'not real'.


----------



## damian13ster

Try to guess which ones have full stadiums, no masks, and no restrictions since March 1?
There is no difference in curves, perhaps Michigan looks the worst


----------



## Spudd

damian13ster said:


> Texas and Florida have crowds in sports events at full capacity since beginning of march. They are doing better than US on average in cases and deaths since then.


Florida is 9th in cases/100k population in the past week. 




__





COVID Data Tracker


CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.



covid.cdc.gov


----------



## damian13ster

Spudd said:


> Florida is 9th in cases/100k population in the past week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID Data Tracker
> 
> 
> CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
> 
> 
> 
> covid.cdc.gov


First: apparently you need to ask sags whether that data is real or not since he seems to be the authority in this regard
Second: my post clearly states 'Since March 1'. You chose one week, and there is still 8 states with stricter restrictions doing worse than Florida.


----------



## sags

According to the link I posted to the article in the Florida newspaper dated May 3, 2021..

_On the day Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an *executive order suspending all local emergency orders* related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including mask mandates, *Florida's coronavirus cases continue to be the highest in the country.

Florida led the nation with increased cases for the 12th day in a row Monday, 3,075,* and had the second-biggest increase in deaths for one day, 39, which was second to New York with 65._

So they were highest in the country on May 3rd, then removed all restrictions and are now among the lowest 27 days later ?

What that would suggest is removing restrictions magically creates immunity from COVID or they are lying about the numbers.

People can choose what they want to believe.


----------



## damian13ster

No. Removing restrictions doesn't change the curve.
Adding restrictions doesn't change the curve. 
Curves look extremely similar no matter the government intervention.
Analysis of 160 jurisdictions show that government intervention has no effect on deaths and severe illnesses








Covid-19 Mortality: A Matter of Vulnerability Among Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation


Context: The human development territories have been severely constrained under the Covid-19 pandemic. A common dynamics has been observed, but its propagation has not been homogeneous over each continent. We aimed at characterizing the non-viral parameters that were most associated with death...




www.frontiersin.org




Case in point: you got hang up on Florida and conveniently completely omit Texas.
Florida being in upper half while Texas being in lower half, when both states implementing same policies show that policies have no effect.









U.S. COVID death rate by state 2022 | Statista


As of October 2022, Mississippi had the highest COVID death rate in the U.S., with 436 deaths per 100,000 population. Vermont had the lowest death rate.




www.statista.com




Both Texas and Florida are below average (US avg being 183/100k pop)


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Try to guess which ones have full stadiums, no masks, and no restrictions since March 1?
> There is no difference in curves, perhaps Michigan looks the worst


Of course you didn't put those on the tables.
Nor are the tables the same scale, or adjusted for population.
Finally interesting you chose some of the worst states.

I'll just throw my observation, many states had 10% of their population test positive for COVID, the actual number is most likley higher, maybe 10.1%, maybe 20%. But you combine that with vaccination rates, you're 50%+ who have either vaccine or natural immunity, which might be enough to stop massive spread.

Also a few thousand people doesn't automatically result in an outbreak anyway. You need to have contagious people there.


----------



## damian13ster

Exactly.
That's why i am completely against using number of cases as a metric. All of research papers that look at cases determine that single most influential factor is testing 
Imho ICU and deaths are much better ways to track changes as the data regarding those is much better.
And by deaths metric both Florida and Texas are below national average.
Of course you can argue that those are anecdotes and multiple of anecdotes doesn't equal data.
For that reason I have also posted a research that looks into 160 jurisdictions and came to the same conclusion: government interventions have no effect on severe illnesses and deaths from COVID.
One can't be willfully blind to data just because they ideologically or because of own biases don't agree with it.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Texas and Florida led the US in cases at the first of May. I suspect they just stopped reporting the real numbers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Florida still tops increased COVID cases despite Gov. Ron DeSantis ending emergency orders
> 
> 
> On the day Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order suspending all local emergency orders related to the COVID-19 pandemic, Florida's coronavirus cases continue to be the highest in the country.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wptv.com


You also don't trust Israel numbers (because of Gaza) and Ontario numbers (because of Progressive- Conservative party)...
Damian is right, you trust only numbers that you want to trust


----------



## sags

I trust the doctors and nurses who work in the hospitals. Their only agenda is preventing illness and death.

The doctors and nurses in Gaza say the numbers are catastrophic. The government of Israel says.....we are doing wonderfully.

Ontario doctors and nurses say we should lock down. Ontario says it is party time.

You can go ahead and believe the politicians.


----------



## like_to_retire

COVID-19 ‘Likely’ Leaked In Lab Accident, Says Top House Foreign Affairs Committee Member.

_Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Sunday that the COVID-19 pandemic “more likely than not” was the result of an accidental leak at a laboratory in China.

“I do think it’s more likely than not it emerged out of the lab ― most likely accidentally ― for several reasons,” McCaul told host Jake Tapper. “And first of all ... let me say this is the worst cover-up in human history, that we’ve seen, resulting in 3.5 million deaths, creating economic devastation around the globe.”_

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I trust the doctors and nurses who work in the hospitals. Their only agenda is preventing illness and death.


Incomplete and also wrong.
They have first hand knowledge of what is going on in their part of the hospital.
As a group I think they are concerned with preventing illness and death, but that isn't their only agenda.

If it was, why were nurses fighting for the right to not vaccinate, and work without masks?
There is clearly another agenda at play.



> The doctors and nurses in Gaza say the numbers are catastrophic. The government of Israel says.....we are doing wonderfully.


Both can be true at the same time.



> Ontario doctors and nurses say we should lock down. Ontario says it is party time.


Yes, and we are not rules by doctors and nurses. We're a (mostly) free country, we don't have to listen to the particular expert at the time.
I'd like to point out that other doctors are saying schools should be open.
Other experts are saying the whole province should be open.

The reality is there are lots of people, lots of experts who all think different things should be done.

Who decides? The elected representatives that we picked.



> You can go ahead and believe the politicians.


There is no "believing", and I'm not a particular fan of politicians. But we hired them to balance all these opinions and chart a course, that's what they're doing.


----------



## gibor365

> The doctors and nurses in Gaza say the numbers are catastrophic. The government of Israel says.....we are doing wonderfully.


 I told you million times that Gaza is not Israel! Cyprus is also doing not too bad. Serbia is also doing better than rest of former Yugoslavia republics!
Is HAMAS wouldn't launch thousands of rockets on Israel, maybe Israel would help more, like Israel helped with vaccine to some Central American countries


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Exactly.
> That's why i am completely against using number of cases as a metric. All of research papers that look at cases determine that single most influential factor is testing
> Imho ICU and deaths are much better ways to track changes as the data regarding those is much better.
> And by deaths metric both Florida and Texas are below national average.
> Of course you can argue that those are anecdotes and multiple of anecdotes doesn't equal data.
> For that reason I have also posted a research that looks into 160 jurisdictions and came to the same conclusion: government interventions have no effect on severe illnesses and deaths from COVID.
> One can't be willfully blind to data just because they ideologically or because of own biases don't agree with it.











U.S. COVID death rate by state 2022 | Statista


As of October 2022, Mississippi had the highest COVID death rate in the U.S., with 436 deaths per 100,000 population. Vermont had the lowest death rate.




www.statista.com




US states are somehwere around 200/100k, with some states doing better, and well New York.....

Canda, 67/100k
USA overall average 180/100k








COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista


COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.




www.statista.com





I think the US numbers are dramatically different due to different behaviours

FYI, Australia is at 3.6/100k, because they pretty much went full lockdown.


----------



## damian13ster

So what you are saying is that people living in Florida and Texas are just smarter than rest of the US, and that's why they have lower death count/population than average of the US despite much less restrictions?

Give me a break.... did you even read the research paper? Government intervention doesn't work.

Yes, it did work in Australia and New Zealand to some extent, but that's because they are islands, really far from everyone, and shut themselves off from rest of the world really quickly. When US and Canada tried to shut borders with China quickly, people who suggested that were called racists. By April it was already too late, and since then restrictions or no restrictions - curves look the same.









States with strictest lockdowns ruined livelihoods


At a time when politics has become vicious and national, Americans would benefit from looking at leaders’ competing visions at the state level.




nypost.com


----------



## sags

Any place that didn't apply or removed restrictions too early suffered large outbreaks..........the end.


----------



## damian13ster

Any place that did apply and didn't remove restrictions suffered large outbreaks..........the end.
Numbers show that amount of illnesses and deaths from COVID is completely unrelated to government intervention.
The study was done across 160 jurisdictions all over the world (link posted earlier today). Your untrue statement doesn't change the facts, nor is it a fact.


----------



## gibor365

I aslo read stats about 2 Midwestern States , one had lockdown, another one had no restrictions (AFAIR Alabama)...The curve looks exactly the same for both States


----------



## gibor365

It's interesting Dr. _David *Williams* is set to *retire* on June 25, Christine Elliott said in a news release. ... *Williams*, who was set to *retire* months ago but delayed the move because of the COVID-19 pandemic, has held the position for five years _

*Williams didn't stand up to Ford, nurses' association says*
_As well, the Registered Nurses Association of Ontario had been calling for Williams to be removed almost since the start of the pandemic, saying he failed to grasp how serious the situation would become.

Doris Grinspun, the head of the association, said many of his decisions appeared to have been politically motivated.

"Either he didn't have the foresight to use the precautionary principle from the beginning and throughout the pandemic, or he didn't have the character to say to the premier, 'This is the way it needs to be'," Grinspun said on Sunday.


Williams, pictured at a news conference last June, said in a statement that it was an honour to serve and thanked the people of Ontario 'for the resilience they have displayed throughout this pandemic.' (Frank Gunn/Canadian Press)
Other critics voiced concern about his handling of issues beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.

Zoe Dodd, with the Toronto Overdose Prevention Society, said Williams failed to come to grips with the opioid crisis. In some communities, she said, overdose deaths have outstripped pandemic fatalities under his watch.

"Dr. Williams has been negligent in his role," Dodd said on social media. "When COVID hit, we all knew that this man was going to be a puppet for [Ford]."_


----------



## gibor365

Looks like Ford enjoys lockdown as it gave his business a huge profit!


> “Deco Labels manufactures various signage, stickers, and decals — you know, the type that retailers must use these days to inform their customers of COVID-19 protocols in their shops,” Menzies wrote.
> 
> They could include “those little vinyl arrows on the floor directing people to walk single file in specific directions,” which, in turn, could mean that “business is surely booming” these days for the Ford family-owned venture.
> 
> “If that is indeed the case, the question arises: Why would the premier want to rush the province out of various levels of lockdowns? After all, doing so would NOT be good for business… well, HIS Deco Labels business, that is.”


P.S. Very nice business idea! To create mandatory Covid protocol , so all businesses should buy his company products!
Dougie is not so stupid!


----------



## gibor365

What a disgrace! I hope that thousands of fan would gather in Jurassic park! Government and police are scarier from big crowds!








No fans in the stands: Ontario rejects calls to open up seats to health-care heroes for Game 7 Leafs-Habs showdown


Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown wants province to allow 2,500 fully vaccinated health-care and essential workers to attend Monday’s big game.




www.thestar.com




.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Any place that did apply and didn't remove restrictions suffered large outbreaks..........the end.
> Numbers show that amount of illnesses and deaths from COVID is completely unrelated to government intervention.
> The study was done across 160 jurisdictions all over the world (link posted earlier today). Your untrue statement doesn't change the facts, nor is it a fact.


The study itself says that it should not be interpreted that way.

Look at Australia vs Canada vs US.
Similar incomes, dramatically different government policies, dramatically different outcomes.


----------



## sags

gibor365 said:


> What a disgrace! I hope that thousands of fan would gather in Jurassic park! Government and police are scarier from big crowds!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No fans in the stands: Ontario rejects calls to open up seats to health-care heroes for Game 7 Leafs-Habs showdown
> 
> 
> Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown wants province to allow 2,500 fully vaccinated health-care and essential workers to attend Monday’s big game.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thestar.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .


Big corporations and wealthy families control many of the seats for Leafs games in Toronto.

They have for decades and regular folks have to buy overpriced scalper tickets to see a game.

Ford probably doesn't want to upset them by allowing someone else to have priority on their seats......even fully vaccinated health care workers.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Where is Patrick Brown getting the $$$ to buy those seats "in recognition of those healthcare workers *who sacrificed so much during the pandemic (his words)*"? Out of his own pocket as a start? And what happens if a Covid outbreak occurs there, even as fully vaccinated? Will he be attending the ICU for them? Another turkey (probably worser of the 2) who talks from 2 sides of his mouth.

Bottomline:


> ... _The Ontario government will not allow fans inside Scotiabank Arena Monday for the Game 7 showdown between the Leafs and the Habs — despite calls for the province to follow Quebec’s lead and let a limited number of spectators through the doors.
> 
> Ontario’s Ministry of Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries confirmed Sunday that “no spectators are allowed to attend games in-person” — hours after Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown issued a call to allow 2,500 fully vaccinated health-care and essential workers to attend Monday’s big game_. ...


 ... regardless of what those 2 turkeys (Brown & Tory) say. If they don't like managing Brampton and Toronto "responsibily" as "mayors", then they can take their mayoral acts and move to somewhere in Quebec.


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> Texas and Florida have crowds in sports events at full capacity since beginning of march. They are doing better than US on average in cases and deaths since then.


A good test will be the very warm months of July and August. Texas and Florida had a major spike last year during those two months. If they get through these months this year I believe that will be a sign of victory. Some experts say people who have been infected have a very high level of immunity. Some figure 30% of Texans have been infected and have recovered.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Big corporations and wealthy families control many of the seats for Leafs games in Toronto.


So?



> They have for decades and regular folks have to buy overpriced scalper tickets to see a game.


Odd I've never had to pay a scalper, I just watch the games on TV.

Added bonus, don't need to go to Toronto!


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> Texas and Florida led the US in cases at the first of May. I suspect they just stopped reporting the real numbers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Florida still tops increased COVID cases despite Gov. Ron DeSantis ending emergency orders
> 
> 
> On the day Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order suspending all local emergency orders related to the COVID-19 pandemic, Florida's coronavirus cases continue to be the highest in the country.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wptv.com


Not much of a pandemic if you can hide it simply by fudging the numbers now is it?

You can't fake overflowing hospitals


----------



## sags

If you aren't testing........you won't find infections.

If hospitals are reporting their numbers to the State......it isn't difficult for the State to adjust the numbers.

I guess the question boils down to...is it more likely the States are manipulating the data or that COVID doesn't spread any faster when there are no restrictions.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> If you aren't testing........you won't find infections.
> 
> If hospitals are reporting their numbers to the State......it isn't difficult for the State to adjust the numbers.
> 
> I guess the question boils down to...is it more likely the States are manipulating the data or that COVID doesn't spread any faster when there are no restrictions.


Actually the important question is what data you're looking at.
Since you didn't link to any data, I have no idea if your sources are reputable or not.


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> If you aren't testing........you won't find infections.
> 
> If hospitals are reporting their numbers to the State......it isn't difficult for the State to adjust the numbers.
> 
> I guess the question boils down to...is it more likely the States are manipulating the data or that COVID doesn't spread any faster when there are no restrictions.


A pandemic kills and puts people in the hospital, to the point of overwhelming the system. 

If the system is not overwhelmed, there isn't an issue. 

It's both hilarious and pathetic that you're saying "no fair they're not counting" when you're talking about a pandemic 

Unless you are suggesting a massive cover up where hospitals and morgues are overrun, there are no issues in those states.

It's no longer a pandemic when you have to seek it out and test for it.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> The study itself says that it should not be interpreted that way.
> 
> Look at Australia vs Canada vs US.
> Similar incomes, dramatically different government policies, dramatically different outcomes.


Of course. Closing borders right away is effective, but it was stopped by cries of racism.
Once the virus got in in significant numbers - game over.
Australia was also included in that study. But you keep giving one example while they look at 160.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> If you aren't testing........you won't find infections.
> 
> If hospitals are reporting their numbers to the State......it isn't difficult for the State to adjust the numbers.
> 
> I guess the question boils down to...is it more likely the States are manipulating the data or that COVID doesn't spread any faster when there are no restrictions.


You can't hide deaths though.
That's why I said - they have lower deaths than US average.
Personally I look at illnesses and deaths rather than cases when evaluating data for that very same reason. More testing = more cases. No testing = no cases. But there will be deaths and people in ICU


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Actually the important question is what data you're looking at.
> Since you didn't link to any data, I have no idea if your sources are reputable or not.


There is no data. He literally is saying that if data doesn't match his opinion then the data is fake. Unfortunately this is the line of thinking that majority of people take now. That's why you have polarization and that's why changes of opinion are rare.
For myself I was pro total lockdown until around May-June 2020. Then saw it to be completely ineffective since curves were the same across countries with or without them. Then in August 2020 data started to show that is indeed the case. Nothing happened since then to prove otherwise. Curves are the same no matter what government does (yes, minus complete border closure since day one Mr.Matt - I know, but it is too late for that now)


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Of course. Closing borders right away is effective, but it was stopped by cries of racism.
> Once the virus got in in significant numbers - game over.
> Australia was also included in that study. But you keep giving one example while they look at 160.


No, it wasn't stopped by cries of racism.
Trudeau, the one who should have closed the borders used racism as his excuse for inaction.

That study, which I read, was horribly misreported by media. The authors themselves posted rebuttals that the media reports on their study misrepresented it.


----------



## damian13ster

I don't know which study you refer to since I read actual studies, not the media' representation of it.
Yes, cries of racism by our PM and his government. Sorry for lack of specification


----------



## sags

The anti-lockdown States have political agendas. The governor of Florida wants to be President and needs Trump's supporter wingnuts to do that.

The Governors control the statistics they issue to the public. Hospitals in Florida were begging for assistance. People were fleeing Florida for safer places.

Mayors and local officials declared disasters and closed down beaches and bars, while DeSantis pretended everything was safe.

To state that restrictions had no appreciable impact on reducing the spread of COVID is as stupid as stupid gets.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> The anti-lockdown States have political agendas. The governor of Florida wants to be President and needs Trump's supporter wingnuts to do that.
> 
> The Governors control the statistics they issue to the public. Hospitals in Florida were begging for assistance. People were fleeing Florida for safer places.
> 
> Mayors and local officials declared disasters and closed down beaches and bars, while DeSantis pretended everything was safe.
> 
> To state that restrictions had no appreciable impact on reducing the spread of COVID is as stupid as stupid gets.


Politicians have political agendas!!!!???? - that's groundbreaking stuff man.

You think that Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer didn't. Come on. The first two did their best to intentionally infect most vulnerable parts of population, hid the numbers from the public, and spent entire 2020 in the media either promoting their newly signed book deals (Cuomo) or lobbying to become VP (Whitmer).

Politicans have political agendas - we get it.
What does that have to do with anything?


And no, to make that statement is not as stupid as it gets. To make that statement prior to seeing any data would be questionable. To see data proving that this statement is factually correct and ignoring the data - that is as stupid as it gets.

Another example: smokers are underrepresented among COVID hospitalizations.
Seems like ridiculous stupid statement until one actually looks in the data (they are underrepresented by about 75%) and then digs a little bit into actual science. Nicotine decreases inflammation and affects cytokine production, so basically mildens the mechanism by which your organism hurts itself in face of the virus.
So statement that sounds ridiculously stupid at first can actually be true - one just needs to not be afraid to challenge their opinion with actual facts and data


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The Governors control the statistics they issue to the public.


Then use the CDC statistics.


----------



## sags

The CDC, WHO, Health Canada.......are all influenced by ruling politicians. Look no further than how the CDC acted while Trump was President.

Trump was talking about drinking bleach and sticking ultraviolet light up your arse.........and they sat back and said nothing.

WHO declared it extremely unlikely the virus was created in the Wuhan lab, but it is discovered they never actually had access to any information in China.

Health Canada has no credibility left. They are up and down like Trump on a run down Russian hotel bed.

I listen to the doctors and nurses on the front lines. They are informed and honest. I don't need to listen to political flunkies.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> The CDC, WHO, Health Canada.......are all influenced by ruling politicians. Look no further than how the CDC acted while Trump was President.
> 
> Trump was talking about drinking bleach and sticking ultraviolet light up your arse.........and they sat back and said nothing.
> 
> WHO declared it extremely unlikely the virus was created in the Wuhan lab, but it is discovered they never actually had access to any information in China.
> 
> Health Canada has no credibility left. They are up and down like Trump on a run down Russian hotel bed.
> 
> I listen to the doctors and nurses on the front lines. They are informed and honest. I don't need to listen to political flunkies.


Then please don't voice your opinions on issues relating to things outside of small part of the city you live in, since you self-admittedly have zero knowledge about it.
You extrapolate information from one part of your city to accuse of data forging in Florida and Texas. Just let the absurdity of it sink in


----------



## sags

They have cable television and the internet now. It isn't difficult to follow the "local news" in Florida and Texas.

Twitter provides up to the moment information from real people on the ground doing the work in the midst of the battle against COVID.

Abstract studies and data doesn't mean dick squat to them.


----------



## damian13ster

So your opinion is formed by those who choose what goes on TV, and by algorithms in internet providers where you and your opinion are literally a product - still worthless.
You are basing your opinion on anecdotes - multiple of anecdotes is not data


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> They have cable television and the internet now. It isn't difficult to follow the "local news" in Florida and Texas.
> 
> Twitter provides up to the moment information from real people on the ground doing the work in the midst of the battle against COVID.
> 
> Abstract studies and data doesn't mean dick squat to them.


Hahaha, you get your news from your twitter feed.

Bit of an echo chamber don't ya think?


----------



## sags

Of course. Twitter is instant news from around the world. It is live in real time.

By the time the main media broadcast it is already old news. You gotta try the new technology.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> The CDC, WHO, Health Canada.......are all influenced by ruling politicians. Look no further than how the CDC acted while Trump was President.


Yeah, Trump's people actually influenced the CDC quite a bit. They demanded to see CDC releases before they went public and changed scientific reports for Trump's political agenda.

But this is really the behaviour of an authoritarian who demands control over everything. More sensible governments like those currently in power in the US, Canada, and UK don't have the same mind set, and I doubt they are controlling things like that.

It's a good reminder of the danger of authoritarians like Putin, Trump, Bolsonaro (Brazil), Erdogan (Turkey) and Modi (India). Not every government is like these ones.









Trump-appointed officials altered CDC documents for political reasons, health official claims


Trump-appointed communications officials at the US Department of Health and Human Services pushed to change language to weekly science reports released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention so as not to undermine President Donald Trump's political message, according to a federal...




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Yeah, Trump's people actually influenced the CDC quite a bit. They demanded to see CDC releases before they went public and changed scientific reports for Trump's political agenda.


Trudueaus government reviews & screens freedom of information requests before they go public too.
All pretty dirty IMO


----------



## sags

Vietnam was in pretty good shape regarding the COVID, but they now have a new hybrid virus that combines the UK and India virus.

They say it is a very dangerous variant and have locked down the largest city. All travel is restricted and quarantine is mandatory.

In China, the populous Guangong Province is under a new lock down due to an outbreak in COVID cases.

If I recall correctly, that is where the "bat caves" are located.

This virus isn't going away.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Vietnam was in pretty good shape regarding the COVID, but they now have a new hybrid virus that combines the UK and India virus.
> 
> They say it is a very dangerous variant and have locked down the largest city. All travel is restricted and quarantine is mandatory.
> 
> In China, the populous Guangong Province is under a new lock down due to an outbreak in COVID cases.
> 
> If I recall correctly, that is where the "bat caves" are located.
> 
> This virus isn't going away.


Hey maybe someone can tell Trudeau?


----------



## sags

It is up to the Provincial Premiers.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> It is up to the Provincial Premiers.


No
The border is Federal, that's why the premiers are so pissed that Trudeau never closed them.


----------



## gibor365

So, ridiculous stay-at-home order (that nobody followed anyway) got lifted! But , what the Hell?! Nothing got changed ! Still even essentials stores like Home Depot and Canadian Tire are closed! What a government of JOKERS LOL


----------



## james4beach

Actual conversation I just had with a man lingering around near my apartment building.

He said: "I just travelled from Germany. First I went to Chicago and it was fun, then I came here. But I'm disappointed that your city is not very open. Do you know where I can find all the parties?"

So here we go... time for international party people! Hop between countries and bring lots of fun to Canada. Fly into one of Canada's largest cities and go straight to the parties. This international party man should visit @gibor365 and have some drinks with him.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Actual conversation I just had with a man lingering around near my apartment building.
> 
> He said: "I just travelled from Germany. First I went to Chicago and it was fun, then I came here. But I'm disappointed that your city is not very open. Do you know where I can find all the parties?"
> 
> So here we go... time for international party people! Hop between countries and bring lots of fun to Canada. Fly into one of Canada's largest cities and go straight to the parties. This international party man should visit @gibor365 and have some drinks with him.


No problem! I miss parties! btw, there are a lot of private parties on private yachts in Toronto.... I know some former and current top executives of the biggest Canadian companies who organizing those parties ... they came back from Florida a month ago in "borrowed" cars, but all of them obviously fully vaccinated


----------



## gibor365

_However, more recently, the number of excess deaths has been higher than the number of deaths due to COVID-19, and these deaths are affecting younger populations, suggesting that other factors, including possible indirect impacts of the pandemic, are now at play.”

During the fall of 2020, younger people under the age of 65 accounted for 35 per cent of excess deaths — an increase from 14 per cent in the spring. About 95 per cent of deaths from COVID-19 during that time period involved people aged 65 and older.

There were more excess deaths for men under the age of 45 than women aged 45 to 64._


----------



## gibor365

COVID-19 death toll in Canada may be higher than official numbers indicate: analysis


The COVID-19 death toll during the first nine months of the pandemic may be higher than the provinces’ official numbers, according to an analysis of new national data by a Toronto researcher.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## gibor365

Dougie wants to be Ontario dictator








Insiders say Doug Ford is looking to dump lockdown critics as he shuffles cabinet that’s ‘too white and too male’


Premier Doug Ford is considering a major revamp of his cabinet as the one-year countdown begins to the June 2, 2022 election, the Star has learned.




www.thestar.com


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Actual conversation I just had with a man lingering around near my apartment building.
> 
> He said: "I just travelled from Germany. First I went to Chicago and it was fun, then I came here. But I'm disappointed that your city is not very open. Do you know where I can find all the parties?"
> 
> So here we go... time for international party people! Hop between countries and bring lots of fun to Canada. Fly into one of Canada's largest cities and go straight to the parties. This international party man should visit @gibor365 and have some drinks with him.


Because Trudeau never closed the borders.


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Dougie wants to be Ontario dictator
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Insiders say Doug Ford is looking to dump lockdown critics as he shuffles cabinet that’s ‘too white and too male’
> 
> 
> Premier Doug Ford is considering a major revamp of his cabinet as the one-year countdown begins to the June 2, 2022 election, the Star has learned.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thestar.com


Yeah, just like every other party leader these days.
Trudeau kicked out everyone who disagreed with him.
That's why Proportional representation and more power to the party leader is a problem.

Previous leaders were typically much more subtle, they made it clear that publicly going against them would make achieving their objectives harder.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Because Trudeau never closed the borders.


I am pretty confident that you can't under any circumstance not allow a citizen of a country enter the said country. 
Then again, before all of that I thought that Canada also has constitution instead of a worthless piece of paper


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> I am pretty confident that you can't under any circumstance not allow a citizen of a country enter the said country.
> Then again, before all of that I thought that Canada also has constitution instead of a worthless piece of paper


True, but you can set conditions on the entry procedures and protocols. I don't think anyone has overturned the quarantine act yet.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> True, but you can set conditions on the entry procedures and protocols. I don't think anyone has overturned the quarantine act yet.


There are hearings in the court June 1-3 about hotel quarantine.
Unfortunately judicial system is extremely slow in examining charter violations.

In a first hearing they refused to toss the case, admitted that 2 sections of charters were violated, but gave government a looooot of time to try to prove section 1 applies.


----------



## sags

Maybe you could call the preacher of the Aylmer, Ontario church and give him your legal opinion.

The fines the court keeps ordering are starting to add up.


----------



## Beaver101

Good luck with the lawsuits against the Feds over quarantine/roach/gulag hotel/motels when the Fed's next move is: 

Federal government hiking fines for hotel quarantine violators

Starting on Thursday, not sure it's today Thursday June 3, 2021 or next ... lol.


----------



## damian13ster

I guess Calgary airport is going to get some extra business! Not a single ticket issued there


----------



## sags

Anyone who breaks the quarantine in a hotel, should spend the quarantine in a prison.

Maybe they will like those accomodations and cuisine better.


----------



## gibor365

I've got a plumping issue in my kitchen, I've got leaking everywhere...
, I need to replace faucet... but Home Depot is closed.... I need to wait 3 days to get it "because of extreme volume"! When our authoritarian government is going to understand that "essentials" is not only to eat?!


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> I've got a plumping issue in my kitchen, I've got leaking everywhere...
> , I need to replace faucet... but Home Depot is closed.... I need to wait 3 days to get it "because of extreme volume"! When our authoritarian government is going to understand that "essentials" is not only to eat?!


Call the store, or deal with another retailer. 
One Canadian Tire takes 2 days, the other about 3 hours.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Call the store, or deal with another retailer.
> One Canadian Tire takes 2 days, the other about 3 hours.


During last 2-3 weeks, I made 3 orders at Home Depot and waited 3 days for all of them (actually same was with 1 order from Canadian tire).. Other stores don't have what we need ... 
Seriously, do you think if Home Depot and Canadian Tire start operating, Covid is gonna kill us?! Can you even compare crowds in Superstore, Walmart and Costco to those 2 stores?!
Sorry to say, but ON government is delusional ! Ontario PC party is gone


----------



## sags

Not yet.....but they soon will be.


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> I've got a plumping issue in my kitchen, I've got leaking everywhere...
> , I need to replace faucet... but Home Depot is closed.... I need to wait 3 days to get it "because of extreme volume"! When our authoritarian government is going to understand that "essentials" is not only to eat?!


We have a little local hardware store. They‘ve opened a little window and you can walk up and order what you want and they bring it out to you. It’s great!


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> During last 2-3 weeks, I made 3 orders at Home Depot and waited 3 days for all of them (actually same was with 1 order from Canadian tire).. Other stores don't have what we need ...
> Seriously, do you think if Home Depot and Canadian Tire start operating, Covid is gonna kill us?! Can you even compare crowds in Superstore, Walmart and Costco to those 2 stores?!
> Sorry to say, but ON government is delusional ! Ontario PC party is gone


The 15% allowance when they open is gonna mean long lines.


----------



## sags

Money172375 said:


> We have a little local hardware store. They‘ve opened a little window and you can walk up and order what you want and they bring it out to you. It’s great!


We have a fish and chip place that did the same thing.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> We have a little local hardware store. They‘ve opened a little window and you can walk up and order what you want and they bring it out to you. It’s great!


We don't have such place and waiting 3 days to get part when your kitchen faucet is leaking = ridiculous!
Every day I'm surprised more and more *what a delusional moronic governments (borh federal and provincial) we have!*


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> We don't have such place and waiting 3 days to get part when your kitchen faucet is leaking = ridiculous!
> Every day I'm surprised more and more *what a delusional moronic governments (borh federal and provincial) we have!*


Find a small local hardware store…good plumbing shops on Dundas, around cawthra. or any other independent. I’m sure they’d get you what you need same day.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Only HomeDepot and CanadianTire exists in gibor's world....lol.


----------



## bgc_fan

One possible upside for some, would be normalization of mask wearing in public places and taking extra hygiene measures. Outside of some hard-core anti-maskers who should mind their own business if people want to wear masks, it would be an interesting change. Even after things get settled down, I'd consider wearing a mask in crowded indoor situations given how the measure probably contributed to the lack of cold or flu this year. Obviously lockdown helped out, but mask wearing is another layer of protection in my opinion.

In fact, because of the measures, it looks like some strains of flu have gone extinct.









Certain Strains Of Flu May Have Gone Extinct Because Of Pandemic Safety Measures


NPR's Ari Shapiro speaks with Stat News' Helen Branswell about how pandemic precautions like masking may have eliminated certain strains of the flu, which could mean flu shots will be easier to make.




www.npr.org


----------



## andrewf

The absolute flattening of flu just goes to show that 1) distancing was highly effective and 2) COVID is waaaaay more contagious than flu. COVID still had stubburnly high infection rates despite the distancing measures, while flu got absolutely flattened.


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> it looks like some strains of flu have gone extinct


This is tremendously exciting news. Just by being cautious about spreading disease to each other, we might have eradicated a strain or two which have been deadly pains in the neck for many years.



andrewf said:


> The absolute flattening of flu just goes to show that 1) distancing was highly effective and 2) COVID is waaaaay more contagious than flu. COVID still had stubburnly high infection rates despite the distancing measures, while flu got absolutely flattened.


Very good points. And yeah, this point about COVID contagiousness is something people really don't understand. The same measures which basically eliminated the cold & flu were only enough to slow down, but not stop, COVID.

Just look at those outbreak case studies in say, choirs or workplaces where a ton of people catch it. My cousin is a doctor and she told me a case at her hospital where one doc was having a birthday party celebration. Many doctors went into a room together and briefly removed their masks to eat some cake. Nearly all of them caught COVID.

That kind of thing doesn't happen with cold & flu viruses. To be honest, at this stage of the game, only a true moron would think that COVID is just another cold or flu.


----------



## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> This is tremendously exciting news. Just by being cautious about spreading disease to each other, we might have eradicated a strain or two which have been deadly pains in the neck for many years.


Don't know how much a pain these strains may be. But, reduction of number of strains means that there's less guesswork on what strains may be the dominant for the flu season. It would make the vaccine more effective if you have a better chance of guessing the strain.

But still, there are always new strains: First human case of H10N3 bird flu strain reported in China


----------



## damian13ster

COVID is airborne. Flu isn't. Huge difference. That's why restrictions are useless against COVID but extremely effective against flu. That's why masks are extremely effective against flu and have only little effect on COVID.
Ultimately, that is nature. Dominant virus/strain pushes out the other. Luckily for us, evolution tends to go to higher spread and lower mortality viruses.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> COVID is airborne. Flu isn't. Huge difference. *That's why restrictions are useless against COVID but extremely effective against flu. That's why masks are extremely effective against flu and have only little effect on COVID.*
> Ultimately, that is nature. Dominant virus/strain pushes out the other. Luckily for us, evolution tends to go to higher spread and lower mortality viruses.


 ... all false in first paragraph, IMO.

Masks are effective against both flu and Covid. Restrictions are useful against Covid but hasn't been tried with the flu since the latter isn't as potent (deadly) as the former (for most people). It doesn't meant the flu isn't contagious. Just happenstance that the use of both restrictions (lockdown, 6' distance, etc.) and masks not only hold off Covid, it covers holding off the flu. I think the flu is just as "airborne (floating aersols, not the true airborne definition ) as Covid. And I believe silent carriers of the flu are more prevalent over the years. The flu hasn't been eradicated.


----------



## andrewf

Flu won't be eradicated, as it is zoonotic and spread by birds.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... all false in first paragraph, IMO.
> 
> Masks are effective against both flu and Covid. Restrictions are useful against Covid but hasn't been tried with the flu since the latter isn't as potent (deadly) as the former (for most people). It doesn't meant the flu isn't contagious. Just happenstance that the use of both restrictions (lockdown, 6' distance, etc.) and masks not only hold off Covid, it covers holding off the flu. I think the flu is just as "airborne (floating aersols, not the true airborne definition ) as Covid. And I believe silent carriers of the flu are more prevalent over the years. The flu hasn't been eradicated.


Well, it is only your opinion. Science and data disagrees with you.

Whether virus spreads exclusively by droplets or is airborne makes all the difference in the world.
Flu virus is orders of magnitude bigger than COVID virus, which proportionately affects the sedimentation rate and therefore time spent in the air, concentration, and distance the virus can travel.
It is also larger than D90 for majority of surgical masks.
Size is what helps COVID spread so easily. It just simply stats suspended in the air for extremely long time, and is also 1/10 the size of D90 for medical masks.
That's why the things you mentioned stop flu (hence lack of flu this season) but don't stop COVID (hence 4 waves in Canada that look the same as in any other places with varying level of restrictions). Clearly effect on flu is significant, and on COVID it isn't.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> COVID is airborne. Flu isn't. Huge difference. That's why restrictions are useless against COVID but extremely effective against flu. That's why masks are extremely effective against flu and have only little effect on COVID.
> Ultimately, that is nature. Dominant virus/strain pushes out the other. Luckily for us, evolution tends to go to higher spread and lower mortality viruses.


Except flu is airborne in droplets.








How Flu Spreads


Most experts think flu viruses spread mainly by droplets made when people with flu cough, sneeze or talk. Learn how to prevent the spread of flu.




www.cdc.gov




"Most experts think that flu viruses spread mainly by droplets made when people with flu cough, sneeze or talk."

Just like COVID19
COVID-19 spreads from an infected person to others through respiratory droplets and aerosols (smaller droplets) created when an infected person: 




__





COVID-19: Prevention and risks - Canada.ca


How COVID-19 spreads, quarantine, isolation, vaccination, vaccines, wearing a mask, ways you can slow the spread, who is at risk, personal preventative practices, community measures.




www.canada.ca





That's why the measures to fight COVID were also very effective at the flu.

They're both in animal populations of all types, although often they'll spread from pigs or birds (hence swine and avian flu being common terms)

Really flu and coronaviruses are biologically very different, for practical purposes they're "the same", they spread similarly, some are dangerous, some are trivial.
I think it's almost guaranteed that we'll go to some regular (annual?) Coronavirus/Flu shot for the projected dangerous strain of the season.


----------



## damian13ster

You are missing a key point - virus size affects the duration in which it is suspended in the air. Flu virus is significantly (orders of magnitude) larger than SARS-COV. That means it is in the air orders of magnitude shorter than COVID.
That's the difference. They aren't the same for practical purposes by any means. They are different - by orders of magnitude, in key metric that aids the spread.
When I throw a rock, the rock it is also suspended in the air for a period of time.....


----------



## Spudd

The viruses themselves are about the same size. 

Flu virus is around 80-120nm. Covid-19 is around 50-140nm.


----------



## damian13ster

Spudd said:


> The viruses themselves are about the same size.
> 
> Flu virus is around 80-120nm. Covid-19 is around 50-140nm.


Clearly I got the wrong source I guess:








THE SIZE OF INFLUENZA VIRUS


The sedimentation behavior of influenza virus in dilute solutions of electrolyte was found to be quite variable. At times the virus activity appeared to sediment at a rate comparable with that of particles about 80 to 120 mµ in diameter, at other ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov




It is concluded that influenza virus activity is not associated with material having a particle diameter of about 10 mµ, but is associated solely with material having a sedimentation constant of about 600 S and hence a probable particle diameter of about 70 mµ. If that was the case then we are talking about a size of about 1000x COVID.

Not an expert on the subject so simply looked up research papers. Can't verify their accuracy.


----------



## Spudd

damian13ster said:


> Clearly I got the wrong source I guess:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> THE SIZE OF INFLUENZA VIRUS
> 
> 
> The sedimentation behavior of influenza virus in dilute solutions of electrolyte was found to be quite variable. At times the virus activity appeared to sediment at a rate comparable with that of particles about 80 to 120 mµ in diameter, at other ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It is concluded that influenza virus activity is not associated with material having a particle diameter of about 10 mµ, but is associated solely with material having a sedimentation constant of about 600 S and hence a probable particle diameter of about 70 mµ. If that was the case then we are talking about a size of about 1000x COVID.
> 
> Not an expert on the subject so simply looked up research papers. Can't verify their accuracy.


I found that paper too, but I don't know if mµ is the same as nm, or if it's a different unit, so I didn't use it as a source.


----------



## damian13ster

It is a unit of length. 10^-6 compared to 10^-9 for nm.
Different strains vary plenty in shape and sizes. When looking at size itself also one needs to look at shape, and go for equivalent diameter (used for sedimentation calculation). Complex subject that I don't know enough on by any means.
Still, size is absolutely massive when it comes to explanation of why restrictions stopped flu but didn't do anything for COVID


----------



## like_to_retire

damian13ster said:


> Still, size is absolutely massive when it comes to explanation of why restrictions stopped flu but didn't do anything for COVID


Maybe if COVID lasts long enough there won't be any more flu to worry about.

The Pandemic Might Have Killed Off Some Flu Strains for Good

_"Scientists say that two common strains of the seasonal flu have seemingly vanished from circulation, likely due to public health measures like mask-wearing meant to slow the covid-19 pandemic. Though it will take time to confirm the disappearing act, the unexpected good news could make developing next season’s flu shot all the easier."_

ltr


----------



## damian13ster

It will last however long they want it to last. Realistically, if media wasn't talking about it 24/7 I don't think people would notice. Been to decent amount of countries that barely realized there was a pandemic going on and just kept doing their things. Looked at me and carry-on hand sanitizer with amusement.

I did have my hopes up though that at least it will teach people to wash their hands after using public washrooms - unfortunately the 'skill' already is getting forgotten.


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> It will last however long they want it to last. Realistically, if media wasn't talking about it 24/7 I don't think people would notice. Been to decent amount of countries that barely realized there was a pandemic going on and just kept doing their things. Looked at me and carry-on hand sanitizer with amusement.
> 
> I did have my hopes up though that at least it will teach people to wash their hands after using public washrooms - unfortunately the 'skill' already is getting forgotten.


As it turns out, it doesn't seem COVID spreads much through surface contact/fomites. Hand washing is good practice for all kinds of other nasties, of course. I still wash my hands when I return home from a public place, avoid touching my face, etc. I just never got into lysol-wipe fever or wiping down groceries and amazon packages.


----------



## james4beach

damian13ster said:


> Still, size is absolutely massive when it comes to explanation of why restrictions stopped flu but didn't do anything for COVID


Why do you keep saying the restrictions didn't do anything for COVID? The measures, including masks, have been effective in limiting the spread.



damian13ster said:


> It will last however long they want it to last. Realistically, if media wasn't talking about it 24/7 I don't think people would notice.


I see. So you're one of these guys who thinks COVID is imaginary.

Honestly, the reason you don't think COVID is a threat is that the government has protected you very well. In other countries, people have seen their family members drop like flies. Even Americans have seen triple the death rate that we have... you are a lucky guy that you have the Canadian government protecting you.


----------



## damian13ster

james4beach said:


> Why do you keep saying the restrictions didn't do anything for COVID? The measures, including masks, have been effective in limiting the spread.
> 
> 
> 
> I see. So you're one of these guys who thinks COVID is imaginary.
> 
> Honestly, the reason you don't think COVID is a threat is that the government has protected you very well. In other countries, people have seen their family members drop like flies. Even Americans have seen triple the death rate that we have... you are a lucky guy that you have the Canadian government protecting you.


No. COVID isn't imaginary. It is very much real.
Yes, restrictions didn't limit the spread. Curves look exactly the same, no matter the restrictions, and peer- reviewed scientific studies show restrictions didn't do anything to limit COVID deaths. 
For that reason despite COVID being very real, if not for arbitrary, ineffective restrictions, it would have very little effect on day to day life.


----------



## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> Honestly, the reason you don't think COVID is a threat is that the government has protected you very well.


While I think Canada could have done better, what you are pointing out is the problem for governmental response. If we had shut down everything: international travel, hard lockdowns, and enforced restrictions back last March 2020, the situation would have been better. 
However, you'd end up with a lot of people complaining that it's a manufactured emergency as the situation would have been contained and we have had a mild first wave. But then if the first/second waves were mild, we wouldn't have seen such a push and acceptance for vaccines because people would think why? We were okay without them. But then we'd get hit with the third wave with the more virulent variants that are currently the majority of the new infections and it would have been bad for two reasons: we wouldn't have had the vaccine uptake as we have now, and we would have been scrambling to get back to lockdowns.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> While I think Canada could have done better, what you are pointing out is the problem for governmental response. If we had shut down everything: international travel, hard lockdowns, and enforced restrictions back last March 2020, the situation would have been better.
> However, you'd end up with a lot of people complaining that it's a manufactured emergency as the situation would have been contained and we have had a mild first wave. But then if the first/second waves were mild, we wouldn't have seen such a push and acceptance for vaccines because people would think why? We were okay without them. But then we'd get hit with the third wave with the more virulent variants that are currently the majority of the new infections and it would have been bad for two reasons: we wouldn't have had the vaccine uptake as we have now, and we would have been scrambling to get back to lockdowns.


Government decided not to take literally only action that is effective - shut the borders down completely in february.
And it decided to take all destructive and ineffective actions possible. That's why we have longest lockdowns and restrictions in the world. That's why we had 4 waves. That's why while most countries are already living normal life we still can't go to a pub. The incompetency of the government proved to be beyond imaginable. They can't even claim to follow the science as they are literally ignoring the advice from the very body of scientists they themselves created.
In Government of Canada it seems like the only characteristic required to get a ministerial position is having less than 10 functioning brain cells


----------



## james4beach

damian13ster said:


> Government decided not to take literally only action that is effective - shut the borders down completely in february.
> And it decided to take all destructive and ineffective actions possible. That's why we have longest lockdowns and restrictions in the world. That's why we had 4 waves. That's why while most countries are already living normal life we still can't go to a pub. The incompetency of the government proved to be beyond imaginable


Government tried to find a balance to try to keep different groups happy. Maybe this was a mistake, but that's what they tried to do.

There are people on this board (several vocal ones) who want *more* travel freedom. Can you imagine how much people would be complaining if all travel and the US/Canada border was completely shut down?

Big picture, Canada has done better than Europe and the US but worse than Australia and New Zealand. I personally wish we had handled this more like AU-NZ, but many Canadians would have a lot of trouble handling the kinds of restrictions they had in Australia.


----------



## damian13ster

It really depends which metric you use in determining whether Canada did better than Europe and US. 

Are you looking at excess deaths?
Are you looking only at government data on COVID deaths?
Are you looking at economic disruption?
Are you looking at health care system disruption?
Are you looking at length of restrictions?
The opinion that Canada did better than Europe and US is very arbitrary. I can see why you may think so based on some statistics, and I can see how others can disagree based on other statistics.

And I am sorry, but trying to make everyone happy is not a mitigating factor for the failures and lack of intelligence, data behind decisions of the Government of Canada.
Those in power are supposed to be smarter and more ethical than your average member of society. It proved to be completely opposite. The only successful event throughout those entire 16 months has been lack of vaccine hesitancy - and that is attributable to a characteristic of average Canadian, not a credit to government.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> Government decided not to take literally only action that is effective - shut the borders down completely in february.
> And it decided to take all destructive and ineffective actions possible. That's why we have longest lockdowns and restrictions in the world. That's why we had 4 waves. That's why while most countries are already living normal life we still can't go to a pub. The incompetency of the government proved to be beyond imaginable. They can't even claim to follow the science as they are literally ignoring the advice from the very body of scientists they themselves created.
> In Government of Canada it seems like the only characteristic required to get a ministerial position is having less than 10 functioning brain cells


Yes, they should have. But then we would have been shut out of food supplies from the US, considering that most of our goods are transported via trucks. But then again, shutting the border completely is not feasible. Even New Zealand and Australia had measures in place for people coming back to their countries, enforced hotel quarantine for 2 weeks. We can't even handle 3 day quarantine now after a year of COVID. Imagine the reaction of actually doing that last March?

Instead, we had voluntary quarantine, and lockdowns? Give me a break. Generally speaking, they're a joke. If you want to look at a real lockdown measures, take a look at what Australia did: Australia imposes strict new virus measures in Victoria as early successes unravel .

The issue is that we did everything half-measured because there was no appetite to actually do what had to be done. Just looking at all the COVID protests in Canada is enough to show that trying to impose real measures would not have worked, without a lot of pushback.


----------



## damian13ster

I think the reaction would be much better in february when it actually made sense than now with 98%+ of spread happening within the borders.

Personally, I was much more receptive to the idea back then, even though I believe in liberty than I am now when it has been shown that less than 0.1% of cases are imported and even science panel next to government says hotel quarantine is useless and should be stopped.

In the second paragraph you are literally proving the point. They jettisoned the economy, destroyed livelihood, and quadrupled mental health issues, having 10% of Canadians consider suicide in recent quarter, all on half-assed, completely ineffective measures. In terms of COVID restrictions it was shown that either you do things right (back in february-march 2020) or don't do them at all. Instead, Canada decided to self-inflict as much harm as possible while not helping the situation.


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> The issue is that we did everything half-measured because there was no appetite to actually do what had to be done


But remember, this is partially due to the influence of American media on this, and how some Canadians would absolutely lose their minds (because Americans tell them to).

We don't always realize this in Canada but our population is very affected by US media. This puts policy makers in a difficult position, because people were even protesting and getting quite grouchy about the minimal restrictions we had in Canada.

This includes powerful American religious movements, which have a huge affect into Canada as well (look at how some churches in AB and MB are reacting). Australia doesn't have these American influences to deal with, and they still had a lot of public anger at their restrictions.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Well, it is only your opinion. Science and data disagrees with you.
> 
> Whether virus spreads exclusively by droplets or is airborne makes all the difference in the world.
> Flu virus is orders of magnitude bigger than COVID virus, which proportionately affects the sedimentation rate and therefore time spent in the air, concentration, and distance the virus can travel.
> It is also larger than D90 for majority of surgical masks.
> Size is what helps COVID spread so easily. It just simply stats suspended in the air for extremely long time, and is also 1/10 the size of D90 for medical masks.
> That's why the things you mentioned stop flu (hence lack of flu this season) but don't stop COVID (hence 4 waves in Canada that look the same as in any other places with varying level of restrictions). Clearly effect on flu is significant, and on COVID it isn't.


 ... LMAO. So you're a scientist ... on CMF only.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> I think the reaction would be much better in february when it actually made sense than now with 98%+ of spread happening within the borders.
> 
> Personally, I was much more receptive to the idea back then, even though I believe in liberty than I am now when it has been shown that less than 0.1% of cases are imported and even science panel next to government says hotel quarantine is useless and should be stopped.
> 
> In the second paragraph you are literally proving the point. *They jettisoned the economy, destroyed livelihood, and quadrupled mental health issues, having 10% of Canadians consider suicide in recent quarter, all on half-assed, completely ineffective measures.* In terms of COVID restrictions it was shown that either you do things right (back in february-march 2020) or don't do them at all. Instead, Canada decided to self-inflict as much harm as possible while not helping the situation.


 ... and yet these moronic Covid-deniers, crybabies are still alive.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> I think the reaction would be much better in february when it actually made sense than now with 98%+ of spread happening within the borders.
> 
> Personally, I was much more receptive to the idea back then, even though I believe in liberty than I am now when it has been shown that less than 0.1% of cases are imported and even science panel next to government says hotel quarantine is useless and should be stopped.
> 
> In the second paragraph you are literally proving the point. They jettisoned the economy, destroyed livelihood, and quadrupled mental health issues, having 10% of Canadians consider suicide in recent quarter, all on half-assed, completely ineffective measures. In terms of COVID restrictions it was shown that either you do things right (back in february-march 2020) or don't do them at all. Instead, Canada decided to self-inflict as much harm as possible while not helping the situation.


Okay, so you're one of those "vocal" oppositions to limiting international travel right? No problem with unfettered flights in and out.

Yes, the cat is out of the bag, but there are always going to be new variants.

What I always hear are the "Keep the foreigners out, they're the ones who are bringing it in", when in reality, it's usually returning citizens who are bringing it in. It's no coincidence that the first wave coincided with people returning from Spring break. And unless we deal with that part, we're always going to have issues. I guess you don't agree with the Ontario Conservatives who are complaining that the Federal government is allowing border crossings.

So basically you are saying we should have locked down harder and longer to start. Were you out there saying that we should be doing that or were you complaining that the restrictions were too tight? All I ever hear is the argument, "restrictions aren't working, get rid of them", instead of "restrictions aren't working, make them more effective and stronger".



james4beach said:


> But remember, this is partially due to the influence of American media on this, and how some Canadians would absolutely lose their minds (because Americans tell them to).
> 
> We don't always realize this in Canada but our population is very affected by US media. This puts policy makers in a difficult position, because people were even protesting and getting quite grouchy about the minimal restrictions we had in Canada.
> 
> This includes powerful American religious movements, which have a huge affect into Canada as well (look at how some churches in AB and MB are reacting). Australia doesn't have these American influences to deal with, and they still had a lot of public anger at their restrictions.


It is, and seeing all those Trump rallies in Canada just make me wonder about people's sensibilities.


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> It is, and seeing all those Trump rallies in Canada just make me wonder about people's sensibilities.


I watched some of that footage very carefully. Yeah, there were US flags, Trump flags, and a number of churches involved.

It did not strike me as a terribly organic, Canadian thing.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> Okay, so you're one of those "vocal" oppositions to limiting international travel right? No problem with unfettered flights in and out.
> 
> Yes, the cat is out of the bag, but there are always going to be new variants.
> 
> What I always hear are the "Keep the foreigners out, they're the ones who are bringing it in", when in reality, it's usually returning citizens who are bringing it in. It's no coincidence that the first wave coincided with people returning from Spring break. And unless we deal with that part, we're always going to have issues. I guess you don't agree with the Ontario Conservatives who are complaining that the Federal government is allowing border crossings.
> 
> So basically you are saying we should have locked down harder and longer to start. Were you out there saying that we should be doing that or were you complaining that the restrictions were too tight? All I ever hear is the argument, "restrictions aren't working, get rid of them", instead of "restrictions aren't working, make them more effective and stronger".
> 
> 
> 
> It is, and seeing all those Trump rallies in Canada just make me wonder about people's sensibilities.


We should lock down the border harder at the start.
Since we haven't done that, we shouldn't have lockdowns now at all since they are ineffective.
There will always be new variants, and every single variant out there is already in Canada, despite the restrictions. So restrictions are completely ineffective. And yes, if something is ineffective, then continuing it makes no sense. Despite having longest restrictions in the entire world, we still had 4 waves, curves look exactly the same as in any other country in the world. Your hypothesis that 'it would be even worse' is completely unverifiable and there is zero proof of it.
I still believe quarantine at home until 2 negative tests after travel is a good idea, and I believe the quarantine at home until 2 negative tests should be enforced. I know countries in which you are visited daily during quarantine, at unspecified hour, to verify you are indeed home. I have been quarantining 3 times at home since I worked abroad, and not a single phone call, and not a single visit was done for verification. If I wanted to break quarantine I would be able to do that without any issues - that's a problem


----------



## Beaver101

^ Sounds like don't do anything to control the spread since nothing seemed to have worked or was only ineffective. What pandemic?


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> We should lock down the border harder at the start.
> Since we haven't done that, we shouldn't have lockdowns now at all since they are ineffective.


Except they are, the more aggressive the controls, the lower the spread and the fewer the cases.
Australia is an excellent example.

Please go ahead show any evidence that the lockdowns are ineffective. Please don't cite the study that the author himself said "this study doesn't compare the effectiveness of control measures"


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Except they are, the more aggressive the controls, the lower the spread and the fewer the cases.
> Australia is an excellent example.
> 
> Please go ahead show any evidence that the lockdowns are ineffective. Please don't cite the study that the author himself said "this study doesn't compare the effectiveness of control measures"


Australia is a great example on how locking down borders early is effective. 
I never disputed that fact.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Sounds like don't do anything to control the spread since nothing seemed to have worked or was only ineffective. What pandemic?


Yes. If an action has no desirable effect but has plenty of negative effects, it is logical conclusion that the action should not be conducted. Don't see that as a controversial statement.
Pandemic is here, we dropped the ball at the beginning and can no longer control it other than through vaccines. 
So should we virtue signal and perform ineffective and damaging lockdowns just for political points - not to be accused of inactivity?


----------



## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> I watched some of that footage very carefully. Yeah, there were US flags, Trump flags, and a number of churches involved.
> 
> It did not strike me as a terribly organic, Canadian thing.


Like you said, proximity to American culture and all. So much for defining Canadians as not Americans.



damian13ster said:


> Since we haven't done that, we shouldn't have lockdowns now at all since they are ineffective.
> There will always be new variants, and every single variant out there is already in Canada, despite the restrictions. So restrictions are completely ineffective. And yes, if something is ineffective, then continuing it makes no sense. Despite having longest restrictions in the entire world, we still had 4 waves, curves look exactly the same as in any other country in the world. Your hypothesis that 'it would be even worse' is completely unverifiable and there is zero proof of it.


Restrictions aren't effective because they're half-measures. The problem is you're advocating for free for all like Sweden. That didn't go well.

Not every country had 4 waves and you can see how effective measures can be when you look at some of the SE Asian countries. Even look at India, they only had two waves. The first was somewhat long, but no where near like their current situation. They actually had pretty stringent measures, but you want to guess what happened earlier this year? They relaxed their measures. ‘Perfect storm’: How did India’s COVID-19 crisis get so bad?










The response to ineffective measures shouldn't be give up all measures. Rather it's to re-evaluate the measures and implement new ones.


----------



## damian13ster

Sweden actually had lower excess deaths during pandemic than Canada did.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Sweden actually had lower excess deaths during pandemic than Canada did.


Canada has 37M people Sweden 10M
Canada had 26k deaths, Sweden 15k deaths.

We had far fewer deaths per capita, likely due to our more rigid lockdowns.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Canada has 37M people Sweden 10M
> Canada had 26k deaths, Sweden 15k deaths.
> 
> We had far fewer deaths per capita, likely due to our more rigid lockdowns.


Canada had 6% excess deaths in 2020
Sweden had 1.5% excess deaths in 2020

Canada has far more excess deaths per capita, likely due to our more rigid lockdowns.









Excess Mortality across Countries in 2020 - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine


Ufuk Parildar, Rafael Perara, Jason Oke The Coronavirus (SARS-nCOV2) has caused a marked increase in deaths across the world but




www.cebm.net


----------



## andrewf

james4beach said:


> Why do you keep saying the restrictions didn't do anything for COVID? The measures, including masks, have been effective in limiting the spread.
> 
> 
> 
> I see. So you're one of these guys who thinks COVID is imaginary.
> 
> Honestly, the reason you don't think COVID is a threat is that the government has protected you very well. In other countries, people have seen their family members drop like flies. Even Americans have seen triple the death rate that we have... you are a lucky guy that you have the Canadian government protecting you.


They ran out of firewood to cremate the dead in India and this guy thinks we wouldn't notice COVID if we let it run its course.


----------



## damian13ster

andrewf said:


> They ran out of firewood to cremate the dead in India and this guy thinks we wouldn't notice COVID if we let it run its course.


There wouldn't be any more extra deaths due to COVID than they are now and our day to day life would be normal.
Not that COVID wouldn't cause deaths at all. 
If you interpreted it to be the latter, I am sorry, clearly I worded it poorly.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Canada had 6% excess deaths in 2020
> Sweden had 1.5% excess deaths in 2020
> 
> Canada has far more excess deaths per capita, likely due to our more rigid lockdowns.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Excess Mortality across Countries in 2020 - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine
> 
> 
> Ufuk Parildar, Rafael Perara, Jason Oke The Coronavirus (SARS-nCOV2) has caused a marked increase in deaths across the world but
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cebm.net


*Disclaimer*: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked.

COVID killed fewer people in Canada because we had lockdowns, that's a fact.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> *Disclaimer*: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked.
> 
> *COVID killed fewer people in Canada because we had lockdowns, that's a fact.*


You got a peer-reviewed article proving the bold statement? Since apparently data that doesn't agree with your opinion needs to meet that standard, yet you keep throwing random statements without any proof and claim it is a fact.

Standards for classifying COVID deaths vary greatly from country to country. Why do you think Belgium has such a ridiculously high COVID mortality? Because they had no lockdowns and butchered the response? No. It is because they count deaths differently than majority of their neighbors.

So you keep throwing out statements, with a single piece of unreliable data, attach your opinion to it and try to pass it off as a fact.


----------



## gibor365

damian13ster said:


> Canada had 6% excess deaths in 2020
> Sweden had 1.5% excess deaths in 2020
> 
> Canada has far more excess deaths per capita, likely due to our more rigid lockdowns.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Excess Mortality across Countries in 2020 - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine
> 
> 
> Ufuk Parildar, Rafael Perara, Jason Oke The Coronavirus (SARS-nCOV2) has caused a marked increase in deaths across the world but
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cebm.net


Exactly! There are more deaths due to lockdowns than due to Covid! And Canadian "tsunami of cancer" it's on the way!


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Honestly, the reason you don't think COVID is a threat is that *the government has protected you very well*. In other countries, people have seen their family members drop like flies. Even Americans have seen triple the death rate that we have... *you are a lucky guy that you have the Canadian government protecting you.*


Typical rhetoric of every authoritarian and dictatorship government! "*Canadian government protecting you." - what a BS propaganda spread by Trudeau CULT*


----------



## gibor365

*Difference in overdose alone ages 25-44 is 3 times greater than all Covid deaths age 20-50. Add suicides, 265k surgeries+1m cancer screenings. This is a nightmare.*
But Canadian fake stats about Covid deaths looks groovy LOL


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1401950705808777217


----------



## james4beach

damian13ster said:


> Australia is a great example on how locking down borders early is effective.
> I never disputed that fact.


Australia also locked down outbreaks in cities, with some very severe restrictions, including for domestic travel between states.


----------



## sags

Anti-lockdown people are desperately looking for examples of where no lock downs were successful. Unfortunately..........there isn't any.


----------



## damian13ster

james4beach said:


> Australia also locked down outbreaks in cities, with some very severe restrictions, including for domestic travel between states.


Yes, but they could do that because of small numbers.
And the reason they had those small numbers was stopping flights from China on January 31, 2020, and then quickly extending that to countries where virus was spotted.

Australia was locked, and after that Canada determined that stopping travel from China is racist, prime minister and his wife were busy personally importing virus to Canada, Hadju did nothing but sent money to WHO, and Tam was telling everyone who listened that masks aren't needed.

They dropped the ball at the beginning and never recovered. By the time they tried it was already too late.

And there is plenty of examples of countries where very small measures were successful.
South Korea, Japan, Iceland, Sweden, multiple States (10 with fewest restrictions were all below national average in deaths/pop), Belarus, Turkey, Serbia.
Just because you choose to ignore facts that don't support your opinion, doesn't mean those facts don't exist.

There is no data that looks at significant number of jurisdictions that showed restrictions decreased amount of deaths. Not a single one of you supplied data that looked at 20-30+ countries and determined that there is correlation between deaths, people in ICU and restrictions, let alone causation.

You are arguing your position with absolutely no merit, based solely on your opinion.


----------



## james4beach

damian13ster said:


> Australia was locked, and after that Canada determined that stopping travel from China is racist, prime minister and his wife were busy personally importing virus to Canada


We probably got most of our COVID from the US, which was a huge outbreak zone... and the total lack of response from the US government at the time probably caused thousands of unnecessary deaths in Canada.


----------



## damian13ster

james4beach said:


> We probably got most of our COVID from the US, which was a huge outbreak zone... and the total lack of response from the US government at the time probably caused thousands of unnecessary deaths in Canada.


At least this time you used the word 'probably'.
Let's flip the previous argument.
Countries and states with some of the highest death total:

Hungary
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Brazil
Belgium
Italy
Poland
UK
Argentina
Spain
France
New Jersey
New York
Massachusets
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Indiana
Illinois

What do they have in common - vast majority had crazy strong restrictions with closed borders, police hour, total closures, people being forbidden to go outside. Yet despite all those measures they are among the highest in death count. There is no correlation between strictness of restrictions and severity of COVID. There was correlation between timing of restrictions - if they were introduced in january/february, but after that, actions taken by governments turned out to be completely ineffective in stopping the spread.


----------



## james4beach

We're in a race against time, with regards to the "delta" variant

Canada has a 'narrow window' for containing delta variant, also known as B1617, warns U.K. expert

Delta is spreading fast in the UK, and the aggressive re-opening of the UK might have to be halted if delta gets out of control. The expert warns that Canada has to get two doses into people ASAP, since a single dose is only partially effective at preventing delta's spread.

Currently, "alpha" is the dominant strain in Canada (and is effectively contained by single doses). But delta is already found across the country and it's only a matter of time before it becomes the dominant strain. Even if you close the borders 100% at this point, delta is already spreading domestically.

This should also remind people to *maintain caution in their daily lives*, especially if you've only received one dose. For example, I have one dose but I will NOT be eating indoors at restaurants or bars, and I will be wearing a mask around other people.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Typical rhetoric of every authoritarian and dictatorship government! "*Canadian government protecting you." - what a BS propaganda spread by Trudeau CULT*


 ... so why are you hiding in Mississauga, *Ontario, Canada *then?


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Exactly! There are more deaths due to lockdowns than due to Covid! And Canadian "tsunami of cancer" it's on the way!


 ... there'll be more tsunami of everything if those infection numbers changes course and goes up. 

Reopening stage 1 (for Ontario, Canada) has been moved up 3 days early but that could change. You and that Blabber-mouth just keep shooting dirt from your mouths and we can all enjoy the summer with a modified Reopening schedule aka 'extended lockdowns'. Feel better now?!!!!


----------



## Spudd

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe - Nature


Modelling based on pooled data from 11 European countries indicates that non-pharmaceutical interventionsâ€”particularly lockdownsâ€”have had a marked effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, driving the reproduction number of the infection below 1.




www.nature.com


----------



## MrMatt

Spudd said:


> Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe - Nature
> 
> 
> Modelling based on pooled data from 11 European countries indicates that non-pharmaceutical interventionsâ€”particularly lockdownsâ€”have had a marked effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, driving the reproduction number of the infection below 1.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nature.com


Great study, as you point out it clearly shows that lockdowns were by far the most effective measure.

Implementing lockdowns took R from 4 to 1, that shows they were incredibly effective.
Figure 2 of that study


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Great study, as you point out it clearly shows that lockdowns were by far the most effective measure.
> 
> Implementing lockdowns took R from 4 to 1, that shows they were incredibly effective.
> Figure 2 of that study
> 
> View attachment 21763


Come on Matt. Now you are being plain disingenuous. You negate study that looks at 16x jurisdictions, 3x as long time period, yet you praise this one?

This study literally looked at countries who had exactly the same response to the virus, and determined their curves were similar. Based on that built their model.
Then they tried to apply it to only European country that had different restrictions and the curve still looked the same.
So they determined that model has 'inaccuracies' 

Some of golden quotes:
"Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that are incomplete, show systematic biases in reporting and are subject to future consolidation. "
"We assume that individual interventions have a similar effect in different countries, and that the efficacy of these interventions remains constant over time. "
*"The retrospective stability of our model (Supplementary Videos 1–3) is variable when the implementations of interventions are very dissimilar; an example of this is seen in Sweden, where interventions were dissimilar to other countries and led initially to large uncertainty. "*
"Our partial pooling model requires only one country to provide a signal for the effect of a given intervention, and this effect is then shared across all countries. "
"We find that across 11 countries 3.1 (2.8–3.5) million deaths have been averted owing to interventions since the beginning of the epidemic; "



This study is about as reliable as China claiming the virus doesn't move from human to human and Tam claiming masks are useless.
I understand people with blinders on the sides, but Mr. Matt, you disputed other studies with far more data and far longer time period based on much less, yet you are praising this. Bit of a double standard

Look at date where their data acquisition ends  :


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Come on Matt. Now you are being plain disingenuous. You negate study that looks at 16x jurisdictions, 3x as long time period, yet you praise this one?


Experts in the field (ie peers) didn't review how they determined "excess deaths"
I didn't review the data on how they determined "excess deaths".

The reality is we know lockdowns work.
In Sweden maybe their "behave yourself" guidance was effective.

But Sweden reported a hell of a lot more COVID deaths than Canada. That's a fact.


----------



## damian13ster

So apply the same standard to both situations.
If you dismiss the study that I have provided, there is absolutely no reason why you should be praising a study with much less data and significantly more limitations which showed that government intervention has no effect on limiting deaths and ICU hospitalizations.

No, the reality isn't that we know lockdowns work. The reality is that you think lockdowns work. Don't confuse assumptions with verifiable knowledge


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> So apply the same standard to both situations.
> If you dismiss the study that I have provided, there is absolutely no reason why you should be praising a study with much less data and significantly more limitations which showed that government intervention has no effect on limiting deaths and ICU hospitalizations.
> 
> No, the reality isn't that we know lockdowns work. The reality is that you think lockdowns work. Don't confuse assumptions with verifiable knowledge


I'm applying the same standard.
One study was peer reviewed.
One study was not peer reviewed.

Then upon further investigation the data in one study roughly made sense, in the second it isn't as clear.

yes I think a lockdown does work, it makes logical sense, we have many examples of lockdowns reducing case numbers and deaths.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> I'm applying the same standard.
> One study was peer reviewed.
> One study was not peer reviewed.
> 
> Then upon further investigation the data in one study roughly made sense, in the second it isn't as clear.
> 
> yes I think a lockdown does work, it makes logical sense, we have many examples of lockdowns reducing case numbers and deaths.


Made sense only according to you. That's the entire issue with conversations nowadays. 
Something makes sense based on your bias - must be a fact
Something doesn't make sense based on your bias - must be fake news.

And study i was referring to is this one:








Covid-19 Mortality: A Matter of Vulnerability Among Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation


Context: The human development territories have been severely constrained under the Covid-19 pandemic. A common dynamics has been observed, but its propagation has not been homogeneous over each continent. We aimed at characterizing the non-viral parameters that were most associated with death...




www.frontiersin.org





Peer-reviewed, and with much less disclaimers and inaccuracies, based on more data and longer time period than the one you praised. That's what I am referring to when claiming you are displaying double-standard.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Made sense only according to you. That's the entire issue with conversations nowadays.
> Something makes sense based on your bias - must be a fact
> Something doesn't make sense based on your bias - must be fake news.
> 
> And study i was referring to is this one:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 Mortality: A Matter of Vulnerability Among Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation
> 
> 
> Context: The human development territories have been severely constrained under the Covid-19 pandemic. A common dynamics has been observed, but its propagation has not been homogeneous over each continent. We aimed at characterizing the non-viral parameters that were most associated with death...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.frontiersin.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Peer-reviewed, and with much less disclaimers and inaccuracies, based on more data and longer time period than the one you praised. That's what I am referring to when claiming you are displaying double-standard.


Isn't that the one where the study authors said that it shouldn't be interpreted to mean that the interventions were not effective?
If not, I'm not sure if I've read it yet.


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> *Difference in overdose alone ages 25-44 is 3 times greater than all Covid deaths age 20-50. Add suicides, 265k surgeries+1m cancer screenings. This is a nightmare.*
> But Canadian fake stats about Covid deaths looks groovy LOL
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1401950705808777217


It's idiotic to complain about delayed hospital treatments. The treatments were delayed because ICUs were full of COVID patients. Unless you think we should have euthanized everyone who came to hospital with COVID, I don't see how we would not have had the challenge we did with hospital capacity regardless of what was done with lockdowns.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Isn't that the one where the study authors said that it shouldn't be interpreted to mean that the interventions were not effective?
> If not, I'm not sure if I've read it yet.


Exactly, that's the one.
Data has been peer reviewed. All the results have been verified.

And you get hanged up on a disclaimer that is most likely there for liability reasons.
Very same reason that study showing smokers are significantly underrepresented among hospitalization due to COVID have a disclaimer stating that study shouldn't be used to promote smoking.
The disclaimer doesn't invalidate the data.

Let's move on to the study you praise.
It literally admits to manipulating the data (extrapolates correlation from one country to assume it isn't only correlation but also causation in all the others),
"Our partial pooling model requires only one country to provide a signal for the effect of a given intervention, and this effect is then shared across all countries. "
and model failed to work for a country that didn't have exact same restrictions as 11 (only) countries the model looked like.
*"The retrospective stability of our model (Supplementary Videos 1–3) is variable when the implementations of interventions are very dissimilar; an example of this is seen in Sweden, where interventions were dissimilar to other countries and led initially to large uncertainty. *

Yes, when you look at small amount of countries, all with same restrictions, manipulate the data based on just one and extrapolate it to others, the model will work for those specific countries. It is utterly useless for other situations as the author himself admits in the bolded statement.

Meanwhile here you have 160 jurisdictions, much longer time period, and pure, unmanipulated data.
Yet this is the one you choose to dismiss. Yes - double standards.

Unmanipulated data from 160 jurisdictions from 3x time period shows lockdowns don't work.
Manipulated data from 11 jurisdictions from short time period shows lockdowns work.


----------



## MrMatt

@damian13ster, 

I honestly don't know the point you're trying to make.
We KNOW that if people aren't interacting, communicable dieseases like COVID spread less.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> @damian13ster,
> 
> I honestly don't know the point you're trying to make.
> We KNOW that if people aren't interacting, communicable dieseases like COVID spread less.


That's the entire point. We do not KNOW.
It is possible that just by being in the same space within specified period of time (shopping, any enclosed building, same airspace with poor ventilation or air movement) you can get infected.
If that is the case then it makes lockdowns absolutely useless because it is physically impossible not to have multiple people in the same airspace in any extended time period, as there are still basic needs that need to be satisfied.

There is zero indication that any of the forbidden activities, or sum of all those activities, are less risk than going to grocery store at 25% capacity. And since you can't forbid people from eating and acquiring the food, then they already are exposed to the virus no matter how else they spend rest of their time.

If that is the case then lockdowns don't result in significant risk reduction, therefore only effect they have is negative one on mental health, finances, stability, and physical health.

There are indications too that it is indeed the case. That masking, mechanical ventilation, and limiting total time spent indoors is effective use. Lockdowns are not.
Locking people down to spend more time indoors is literally the single worst thing that can be done








A guideline to limit indoor airborne transmission of COVID-19


Airborne transmission arises through the inhalation of aerosol droplets exhaled by an infected person and is now thought to be the primary transmission route of COVID-19. By assuming that the respiratory droplets are mixed uniformly through an indoor space, we derive a simple safety guideline...




www.pnas.org


----------



## damian13ster

The point I am trying to make is that science doesn't indicate lockdowns are helpful.
They are done purely for political reasons as inaction could be seen negatively, as polls continue to show.

Government is either unintelligent enough or pragmatic enough to ignore science, and not introduce measures that could be helpful (repurposing of ventilation system in public buildings, limiting time spent indoors, providing as many outdoor activities as possible so people don't stay home or even worse, in apartment buildings), but instead introduce measures that harm the population (restricting outdoor activity, restricting access to medical services, telling people to stay home, closing borders) only because they are popular in polls.


----------



## gibor365

damian13ster said:


> The point I am trying to make is that science doesn't indicate lockdowns are helpful.
> They are done purely for political reasons as inaction could be seen negatively, as polls continue to show.
> 
> Government is either unintelligent enough or pragmatic enough to ignore science, and not introduce measures that could be helpful (repurposing of ventilation system in public buildings, limiting time spent indoors, providing as many outdoor activities as possible so people don't stay home or even worse, in apartment buildings), but instead introduce measures that harm the population (restricting outdoor activity, restricting access to medical services, telling people to stay home, closing borders) only because they are popular in polls.


True! There is no any proof that Covid waves coming because of level of lockdowns. When 3rd wave started in Ontario, practically nothing got changed (allowing outdoor patios in March is dumb), we were in lockdown before 3rd wave and stayed in lockdown after 3rd wave, people were partying before 3rd wave and during 3rd wave.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> The point I am trying to make is that science doesn't indicate lockdowns are helpful.
> They are done purely for political reasons as inaction could be seen negatively, as polls continue to show.


You're missing the point.
We know that if person A has COVID, and is far away from person B, person B will not get COVID.

We know this, because this is how this disease spreads.

I'm not arguing the political nature of this, just that we know that keeping people apart will slow or stop transmission.
I'm also not arguing the political or practical impact of any particular directive or policy.

Just from first principles, if we want to stop the spread, we should reduce the opportunities for spread. Lockdowns are a simple way to accomplish that.


----------



## damian13ster

That is not true.
We know that if person A has COVID, goes shopping, spends some time (depending on mask, viral load, ventilation in the store), then a person B being 60ft away will also get COVID simply by being in the same store.
This is literally what the MIT research states.
We also know that if a person A has COVID, stays in apartment, stays at home, then significant proportion of people in same apartment building, same home, will also get COVID due to central ventilation system.

We know that if a person A has COVID, goes playing golf, tennis, walk in the park, swimming pool, plays soccer with friends, they will not get COVID. Yet all of those activities were limited at some point, with some still being limited.

Lockdowns are forcing people indoors - and that is where the transmission happens.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> That is not true.
> We know that if person A has COVID, goes shopping, spends some time (depending on mask, viral load, ventilation in the store), then a person B being 60ft away will also get COVID simply by being in the same store.
> This is literally what the MIT research states.
> 
> We know that if a person A has COVID, goes playing golf, tennis, walk in the park, swimming pool, plays soccer with friends, they will not get COVID. Yet all of those activities were limited at some point, with some still being limited.
> 
> Lockdowns are forcing people indoors - and that is where the transmission happens.


You are arguing what you think good and bad restrictions are.

If you are playing soccer with someone who has COVID, it is possible that you could catch COVID from them. Having played soccer, sometimes you can smell what they had for dinner, clearly that's an opportunity to spread an airborne respiratory virus, basketball is even worse. I have not read any study that says it is safe to have a COVID19 person breathing on you.

Just like if you're in the same store, swimming pool, apartment building, city bus etc.

It's a political decision what to restrict and what not to restrict.
I'm saying restricting works, I'm specifically remaining neutral on the trade offs of any particular restriction.

Remember, I was not in favour of closing schools in 2021, because schools (surprisingly) don't spread COVID.


In summary my position is
1. Lockdowns and restrictions (if complied with) work (to some degree).
2. The restrictions may not be appropriate depending on the required trade offs.

It's a reasonable argument to discuss trade offs, but to say there is "no risk", and claim restrictions "don't work" is simply garbage.
That's like the supervised injection site "research" claiming "no downsides"


----------



## damian13ster

And that is my position:
1. Lockdowns force people indoors
2. Vast majority of transmission happens indoors
3. For that reason Lockdowns don't limit the spread - they *enhance* conditions necessary for the spread.

For this reason it is far from 'garbage' to say lockdowns don't work.

Regarding your other points:

there were multiple test matches in soccer (not aware of any in basketball) that showed there was no transmission
there were actual test, packed music festivals that showed no transmission - being outdoors is extremely low risk
'restrictions don't work' in the context means restrictions introduced by governments, not any single hypothetical action that possibly could be used
The one thing we do agree on is that all decisions made are political and completely ignore or openly contradict the science.
Case in point:








Govt. Panel Recommends End of Hotel Quarantine; Other Changes


The Canadian government's COVID-19 Testing and Screening Expert Advisory Panel is recommend Ottawa end the controversial hotel quarantine plan. They also suggest fully vaccinated travellers shouldn't need to quarantine and that quarantine for non-vaccinated travellers could be reduced to 7 days.



ca.travelpulse.com




And all government did was to increase penalties


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> And that is my position:
> 1. Lockdowns force people indoors
> 2. Vast majority of transmission happens indoors
> 3. For that reason Lockdowns don't limit the spread - they *enhance* conditions necessary for the spread.
> 
> For this reason it is far from 'garbage' to say lockdowns don't work.
> 
> Regarding your other points:
> 
> there were multiple test matches in soccer (not aware of any in basketball) that showed there was no transmission
> there were actual test, packed music festivals that showed no transmission - being outdoors is extremely low risk
> 'restrictions don't work' in the context means restrictions introduced by governments, not any single hypothetical action that possibly could be used


Except that if only the family is in that residence, they have nobody to spread it to.
With or without lockdowns a household is very likely to spread.

I'm not aware of any study showing that COVID19 positive players don't spread to other players. I can accept that the risk might be low, but it isn't zero.

I think reducing the number of closed spaces that people can congregate in is a lockdown measure that does limit spread. We actually DO agree on a number of restrictions that are effective.

You just think that the trade off isn't worth it, which is a distinctly different argument.


----------



## damian13ster

Maybe. So lockdowns only for single-family detached house owners?
People in apartments, condos, and townhouses are encouraged to go out as often as possible to avoid the spread?
Maybe that's the idea to stop the housing cost inflation 

Liverpool ran a bunch of music festivals, business conference, and party in the clubs.
Among 13,000 participants 4 were determined to have COVID prior to attending, a total of 7 were tested positive a week after the event. No masks, no social distance. Virtually all of the positives were from a club showing that ventilation is key.

Risk of outdoor activities even in unmasked crowds at massive concerts is extremely low as shown in the pilot tests.
You think that running by someone in soccer is higher risk than a full on rave?

Reducing the number of closed spaces that people can congregate in is a lockdown measure that actually increases the concentration of people and time spent in enclosed spaces that remain open. Simply because people have fewer places to go. Have you had a pleasure of visiting a shopping mall during pandemic? Never seen such crowds prior to other businesses and safe outdoor activities being forced to close. The absolute gem was limiting hours shops can be open to make sure as many people as possible try to go at the same time  

Perhaps we DO agree on a number of restrictions that are effective, but not a single one was actually introduced so there is no way to verify them. The governments introduced only ineffective measures, as is proven by lockdowns being longest in the world and peaks being 14 months into restrictions.

Hard to even talk about trade-off. Something that proved to be completely ineffective if not counter-productive can't be really called a trade-off. There is no positive to it, it is completely useless. On that alone it should never be introduced, without even having to quantify the harm that was caused


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Maybe. So lockdowns only for single-family detached house owners?
> People in apartments, condos, and townhouses are encouraged to go out as often as possible to avoid the spread?
> Maybe that's the idea to stop the housing cost inflation
> 
> Liverpool ran a bunch of music festivals, business conference, and party in the clubs.
> Among 13,000 participants 4 were determined to have COVID prior to attending, a total of 7 were tested positive a week after the event. No masks, no social distance. Virtually all of the positives were from a club showing that ventilation is key.


Don't know this,don't know if all 4 COVID19 positive were communicable at the time of the event, but even then this is nearly an R of 2, which would cause the disease to spread.



> Risk of outdoor activities even in unmasked crowds at massive concerts is extremely low as shown in the pilot tests.
> You think that running by someone in soccer is higher risk than a full on rave?


No opinion, though it's likely higher than 0.



> Reducing the number of closed spaces that people can congregate in is a lockdown measure that actually increases the concentration of people and time spent in enclosed spaces that remain open. Simply because people have fewer places to go.


Fewer?
Every new location is an additional risk, that's my point.



> Have you had a pleasure of visiting a shopping mall during pandemic?


No, wouldn't call it a pleasure either.



> Never seen such crowds prior to other businesses and safe outdoor activities being forced to close. The absolute gem was limiting hours shops can be open to make sure as many people as possible try to go at the same time


Again, I think that is a dumb idea, I even said so. 
I think stores should have been open nearly 24/7 except for restocking.



> Perhaps we DO agree on a number of restrictions that are effective, but not a single one was actually introduced so there is no way to verify them.


Except the precipitous drop in new cases.



> The governments introduced only ineffective measures, as is proven by lockdowns being longest in the world and peaks being 14 months into restrictions.


You claim that there was no way to verify, then claim that they only introduced "ineffective measures", you can't have it both ways.

The peaks happened after holidays where people intermixed a great deal.



> Hard to even talk about trade-off. Something that proved to be completely ineffective if not counter-productive can't be really called a trade-off. There is no positive to it, it is completely useless. On that alone it should never be introduced, without even having to quantify the harm that was caused


"No Positive" again a biased view.
I think that basketball should have been shut down long before tennis or golf, due to the close proximity.
However then there would be the class based discrimination argument, so the "positive" reason to ban golf was to avoid that and appear "fair".
Appearing "fair" is an important political consideration.

Myself I think that they should have closed the borders, locked down super hard right from the beginning, like all the countries that were successful.
As it is we have more contagious variants and we'll be bouncing around, though I think lockdowns are effectively over, the political will is gone.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Don't know this,don't know if all 4 COVID19 positive were communicable at the time of the event, but even then this is nearly an R of 2, which would cause the disease to spread.
> 
> 
> No opinion, though it's likely higher than 0.
> 
> 
> Fewer?
> Every new location is an additional risk, that's my point.
> 
> 
> No, wouldn't call it a pleasure either.
> 
> 
> Again, I think that is a dumb idea, I even said so.
> I think stores should have been open nearly 24/7 except for restocking.
> 
> 
> Except the precipitous drop in new cases.
> 
> 
> You claim that there was no way to verify, then claim that they only introduced "ineffective measures", you can't have it both ways.
> 
> The peaks happened after holidays where people intermixed a great deal.
> 
> 
> "No Positive" again a biased view.
> I think that basketball should have been shut down long before tennis or golf, due to the close proximity.
> However then there would be the class based discrimination argument, so the "positive" reason to ban golf was to avoid that and appear "fair".
> Appearing "fair" is an important political consideration.
> 
> Myself I think that they should have closed the borders, locked down super hard right from the beginning, like all the countries that were successful.
> As it is we have more contagious variants and we'll be bouncing around, though I think lockdowns are effectively over, the political will is gone.


The amount of infections didn't deviate from general population.
Same with test music festival in Spain.
Therefore it isn't an event with R of 2. It showed that the event didn't add to spread seen in general populace.

Well, if you didn't go then I understand how you would have an idea that keeping less areas open will not contribute to higher density in those areas - that idea is incorrect though. If you give people less options, more will choose the available ones. Those that would normally spend their time playing soccer, tennis, staying safely outdoors are left with no options other than go to open indoor spaces and increase the risk of spread.

I think you misunderstood me. The modifications I believe would be effective weren't introduced, therefore one can't verify their effectiveness.

Your next point is useless as it is based on misinterpretation from my previous one. I don't have it both ways.
Only commenting on restrictions introduced as data shows they were ineffective.
Not commenting on restrictions that weren't introduced, as there is no data on them. I can have an opinion on them, but it isn't verifiable therefore it is nothing more than an opinion.

Didn't governments make it a point to have tough restrictions in time of holidays? Just another proof that restrictions are ineffective.

Other restrictions were introduced, and data from 160 jurisdictions have shown they didn't decrease the numbers (just so we don't go into weird cycle, I am not drawing any conclusions, just stating that data have shown that restrictions introduced didn't have any correlation with ICU numbers or lower deaths - verifiable and peer-reviewed fact).


----------



## damian13ster

https://fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/global-storm-effects-of-COVID-19-pandemic-and-response-around-world.pdf



- When the impact of measures taken to control COVID‑19 are examined, what is import‑ ant is also the ultimate impact on mortality. Cao, Hiyoshi and Montgomery (2020) using aggregate international data found testing policies are associated with a 2.23% decrease in case fatality rates (CFR) while strictness of anti-COVID‑19 measures—from the COVID‑19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT)7 was not statistically signifi‑ cantly associated with CFR overall, but a higher position in the OxCGRT was actually associated with higher CFR in higher-income countries with active testing policies.

Meanwhile, Cao, Hiyoshi, and Montgomery (2020) use global country-level data to investigate the relationship between the COVID‑19 case-fatality rate and demographic and socio-economic factors. They find a significant positive correlation between COVID‑19 case fatality rates (CFR) and the population size of countries—especially in higher- and middle-income countries—as well as the proportion of female smokers in a country. There was a negative correlation between COVID‑19 CFR and diabetes preva‑ lence and also with the rate of death from cardiovascular disease. They also found that the COVID‑19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT)—a composite measure based on nine indicators—was not a statistically significant determinant of Case Fatality Rates and even found some positive association in the higher-income countries.
Summarizing, these studies suggest that age structure—namely the proportion of elderly in the population—was an important determinant of the severity of the COVID‑19 pan‑ demic with low income also being a factor. While none of these studies stressed income inequality as a factor in the severity of COVID‑19, the issue has been raised in some literature along with the view that global income inequality has been made worse by the pandemic.26 International travel also seems to have been a factor, but this result is usually from studies made early on in the pandemic and, given the travel shut-downs that also occurred within the first few months, a longer time series would likely see less emphasis from this effect. The proportion of smokers was of some significance but, of pre-existing conditions, only obesity seemed to be of some consequence in raising mortality while other conditions like diabetes or cardiovascular disease seemed to have mixed effects. As well, testing for the virus was seen to be important in reducing infection rates and mortality but the stringency measures in general were also more mixed in their effects on outcomes.

Again, this suggests that protracted restrictions were of limited effectiveness in combat‑ ting the pandemic over the longer term but quite effective in reducing economic activ‑ ity. Given that changes in restrictions are statistically significant variables but not the level of restrictions in specific months suggests that it may be abrupt stops and starts to restrictions that damage growth rather than extended but steady periods of restrictions. Indeed, the case has been made that short and very sharp lockdowns with clear direc‑ tives work best in dealing with the pandemic rather than long lockdowns with porous restrictions enacted as a sort of political compromise between fighting the virus and keeping the public happy (e.g., Sheikh and Sheikh, 2021; Fasani, 2020). 

Lockdowns, quarantines, and travel restrictions have hurt the international travel indus‑ try and the labour-intensive personal services, food and accommodation, tourism, and arts and entertainment sectors as well as disrupted the global supply chain. The severity of containment measures and restrictions as measured by the OxCGRT varied across countries. Aside from measures enacted early on in the pandemic, levels of stringency or a ramping up of stringency do not appear to have significantly reduced COVID‑19 cases per million population though high rates of testing do seem to have been a factor in eventually reducing the number of cases. Moreover, increased testing also appears a factor in mitigating the death toll. However, stringency again does not appear to have been a major factor in curbing the death toll from COVID‑19 aside from early on in the pandemic. This would suggest that the use of stringency measures such as lockdowns are best employed as short, sharp measures early on rather than as a protracted long-term tool. However, whether lock‑ downs are a substitute or complement for other comprehensive public-health measures such as case testing and tracking, wearing of masks, and general public compliance with rules is not possible to answer with this evidence. As well, the experience of individual countries like Taiwan, which stayed largely open for business during the pandemic, is worthy of further study 

An important factor raising mortality from COVID‑19 appear to have been the popula‑ tion share of elderly while an important factor reducing the mortality was the number of hospital beds per 1,000 population. This latter variable is interesting because, while it was significant, the percentage share of GDP devoted to health spending was not. This suggests that in the end, even with abundant medical resources, it was probably not just how much you spent on dealing with COVID‑19 but how it was spent and allocated in the recent past that mattered more. In the case of hospital beds, for example, even for the IMF35 advanced economies, hospital beds per 1,000 population ranged from a high of 13.1 in Japan, 12.2 in South Korea. and 8.0 in Germany to lows of 2.5 in Canada and Denmark, 2.4 in Singapore, and 2.2 in Sweden. 

As a further point of interest, countries that were heavily affected by the SARS in 2004 collectively appear to have had significantly lower incidence of COVID‑19 and fewer deaths, though even here the experience seems variable. Five countries experienced more Di Matteo • Global Storm—Effects of COVID-19 and Responses around the World • 53 fraserinstitute.org than 100 cases during the SARS outbreak in the first decade of the 21st century—China, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Canada. However, as figures 27A and figure 27B illus‑ trate, if there were any lessons to be learned from SARS about containing a pandemic and reducing the death rate, they do not appear to have been as well heeded in Canada, which during the COVID‑19 pandemic had the highest numbers of cases and deaths per million of these five countries. 

While stringency measures such as lockdowns had limits in dealing with either the spread or mortality from COVID‑19, they certainly appear to have been effective in having a consistently negative impact on real GDP growth in 2020. In the end, it was not the deaths from COVID‑19 per se that devastated economies, but more the restrictions and stringency measures enacted to reduce its spread. Exports were a particularly important variable and countries that managed to increase their exports during the pandemic did better. Oddly enough, economic growth in countries with larger public sectors appear to have done worse during the pandemic and it is not entirely clear as to why that might be.



Canada did brilliantly  

highest increase in government spending
2nd highest increase in unemployment
highest reduction in revenue
2.5x higher deficit than mortality would indicate
26/35 in testing levels
highest deficit in developed world (4th highest in the world overall, behind a country that had its capital leveled by equivalent of 40 atomic bombs and nations with tourism responsible for >60% GDP)


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> And that is my position:
> 1. Lockdowns force people indoors
> 2. Vast majority of transmission happens indoors
> 3. For that reason Lockdowns don't limit the spread - they *enhance* conditions necessary for the spread.
> 
> For this reason it is far from 'garbage' to say lockdowns don't work.
> 
> Regarding your other points:
> 
> there were multiple test matches in soccer (not aware of any in basketball) that showed there was no transmission
> there were actual test, packed music festivals that showed no transmission - being outdoors is extremely low risk
> 'restrictions don't work' in the context means restrictions introduced by governments, not any single hypothetical action that possibly could be used
> The one thing we do agree on is that all decisions made are political and completely ignore or openly contradict the science.
> Case in point:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Govt. Panel Recommends End of Hotel Quarantine; Other Changes
> 
> 
> The Canadian government's COVID-19 Testing and Screening Expert Advisory Panel is recommend Ottawa end the controversial hotel quarantine plan. They also suggest fully vaccinated travellers shouldn't need to quarantine and that quarantine for non-vaccinated travellers could be reduced to 7 days.
> 
> 
> 
> ca.travelpulse.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And all government did was to increase penalties


So, you think a bunch of office workers should be manning their cubicles right now, because social distancing doesn't work. And might as well have stores, gyms and restaurants at full capacity, to maximize exposure to others in enclosed spaces?


----------



## damian13ster

I don't claim anything. Science claims that with a proper ventilation system and masking there is no spread in classrooms or offices if time spent there is less than 7 days continuously. Just read the MIT study.
Exactly the same applies to all the other spaces you have mentioned. Proper ventilation + masks. Time limit based on air exchange capacity. It turned out that if you close those spaces then people will get infected regardless. Science and data show that restrictions don't limit deaths from COVID.

Again. I don't claim anything. Science does. Restrictions introduced by governments past early stage of the pandemic don't work. I am not claiming I am smart enough to understand everything that is going on and what the reasons are. That's why I look at science and data.

Read the excerpts from the post directly before yours, entire report, and if you wish then all individual scientific studies referenced in it. Feel free to verify all the data.


https://fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/global-storm-effects-of-COVID-19-pandemic-and-response-around-world.pdf


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> I don't claim anything. Science claims that with a proper ventilation system and masking there is no spread in classrooms or offices if time spent there is less than 7 days continuously. Just read the MIT study.


But magically in hospitals and long term care homes we kept having outbreaks?



> Again. I don't claim anything. Science does. Restrictions introduced by governments past early stage of the pandemic don't work. I am not claiming I am smart enough to understand everything that is going on and what the reasons are. That's why I look at science and data.


Again you are making an overly broad claim.
You can't claim all restrictions didn't work, you even agree the mask mandate likely worked, as suggested by your summary of the MIT study.

That's all I'm saying, the measures had a wide range of effectiveness.

I just look at jurisdictions with high and low levels of interventions and I see those like Taiwan and Australia where they were very effective. It is obvious that some interventions are effective.

I understand you're an anti restriction guy, but your overly broad claims make people dismiss your opinion.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> But magically in hospitals and long term care homes we kept having outbreaks?
> 
> 
> Again you are making an overly broad claim.
> You can't claim all restrictions didn't work, you even agree the mask mandate likely worked, as suggested by your summary of the MIT study.
> 
> That's all I'm saying, the measures had a wide range of effectiveness.
> 
> I just look at jurisdictions with high and low levels of interventions and I see those like Taiwan and Australia where they were very effective. It is obvious that some interventions are effective.
> 
> I understand you're an anti restriction guy, but your overly broad claims make people dismiss your opinion.


Yes, in hospitals and long term care homes we had outbreaks. Because people were kept inside with central ventilation system. They were kept indoors for extended period of time - and for that reason they were exposed. Same reason they were outbreaks in apartment buildings. Keeping people inside in such settings helps the spread

I don't consider mask mandate as restriction - it is a mandate. You don't restrict anyone from running their business. You don't restrict anyone from attending any activity. You don't restrict anyone from taking care of their health, taking care of their loved ones, from participating in an economy. You mandate that they were a mask while doing it. I was never anti-mask indoors

Taiwan didn't have high restrictions at all. They never shut down businesses, they never had a lockdown. And yes, among 200 countries they look at there will be outliers to both sides. That's why you look at entirety of data instead of dismissing entire data because of couple of outliers


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Taiwan didn't have high restrictions at all. They never shut down businesses, they never had a lockdown. And yes, among 200 countries they look at there will be outliers to both sides. That's why you look at entirety of data instead of dismissing entire data because of couple of outliers


What are you talking about? Taiwan had very aggressive restrictions.
That's why they had almost no cases.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> What are you talking about? Taiwan had very aggressive restrictions.
> That's why they had almost no cases.


They never closed any businesses, they had no lockdowns. At least that's what all the sources I found say. They had strict border restrictions early in the pandemic.
Do you have any sources that say otherwise?


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> They never closed any businesses, they had no lockdowns. At least that's what all the sources I found say. They had strict border restrictions early in the pandemic.
> Do you have any sources that say otherwise?


Nope, but that's what I said, they had very aggressive restrictions, and they worked.


----------



## damian13ster

How is no lockdowns and no business closures at any point aggressive restrictions? As a citizen of Taiwan you were free to do whatever you wanted.
No hotel quarantines either.
I will take those over what Canada has been doing anytime!
And despite never closing businesses, never having lockdowns, they fared beautifully. Go figure


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> How is no lockdowns and no business closures at any point aggressive restrictions? As a citizen of Taiwan you were free to do whatever you wanted.
> No hotel quarantines either.
> I will take those over what Canada has been doing anytime!
> And despite never closing businesses, never having lockdowns, they fared beautifully. Go figure


They had strict and appropriate restrictions.
They closed the borders and put everyone in a 14 day hotel quarantine starting in March 2020.

If they had cases inside the country they aggressively contact traced and isolated people.

They never had broad COVID19 spread, so Broad control measures were not required.


----------



## damian13ster

They had community transmission, yet they didn't act like dumbasses and shut everything down, but instead simply introduced contract tracing. 
Governments in multiple jurisdictions panicked, turned their brains off, and ended up killing their own citizens by putting in ineffective and damaging restrictions. Just look at excess deaths among <45 year olds in Canada. Scary
The worst thing is, they continued to do that even though data clearly shows it is ineffective. They did that for political reasons. Despicable


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> They had community transmission, yet they didn't act like dumbasses and shut everything down, but instead simply introduced contract tracing.
> Governments in multiple jurisdictions panicked, turned their brains off, and ended up killing their own citizens by putting in ineffective and damaging restrictions. Just look at excess deaths among <45 year olds in Canada. Scary
> The worst thing is, they continued to do that even though data clearly shows it is ineffective. They did that for political reasons. Despicable


They had tiny levels of community level transmission which made contact tracing an effective management tool.

They made a different decision than you, I don't think it was that far off base.

I think if Trudeau took it seriously at the beginning, (like Taiwan) we wouldn't be in this mess


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> They had tiny levels of community level transmission which made contact tracing an effective management tool.
> 
> They made a different decision than you, I don't think it was that far off base.
> 
> I think if Trudeau took it seriously at the beginning, (like Taiwan) we wouldn't be in this mess


South Korea had significant amount of super spreader events, significant amount of community transmission.
Yet they never locked down, never closed down businesses. They did much better than Canada did.

Anyway, we can exchange individual examples all we want. Doesn't really change the fact. Data that looks at ALL countries shows that any restrictions after march 2020 were useless and ineffective.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> South Korea had significant amount of super spreader events, significant amount of community transmission.
> Yet they never locked down, never closed down businesses. They did much better than Canada did.
> 
> Anyway, we can exchange individual examples all we want. Doesn't really change the fact. Data that looks at ALL countries shows that any restrictions after march 2020 were useless and ineffective.


I doubt such a study exists. At least it hasn't been posted here.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> I doubt such a study exists. At least it hasn't been posted here.


It has been posted. Not sure if you read it though.
https://fraserinstitute.org/sites/d...VID-19-pandemic-and-response-around-world.pdf 
Post with excerpts is on page 257.
All the data and studies are referenced in the report. Feel free to read all of them. There is plenty that state restrictions past first 2-3 months of the pandemic has been useless and damaging.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> It has been posted. Not sure if you read it though.
> https://fraserinstitute.org/sites/d...VID-19-pandemic-and-response-around-world.pdf
> Post with excerpts is on page 257.
> All the data and studies are referenced in the report. Feel free to read all of them. There is plenty that state restrictions past first 2-3 months of the pandemic has been useless and damaging.


Page 257 of an 86 page report.

I can accept not very effective and damaging.
Useless, I categorically disagree.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Page 257 of an 86 page report.
> 
> I can accept not very effective and damaging.
> Useless, I categorically disagree.


Report was previously posted on page 257 of this thread.

Well, data really says it all. Not effective and damaging vs useless. Seems to be the same thing so I will take it!


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Report was previously posted on page 257 of this thread.
> 
> Well, data really says it all. Not effective and damaging vs useless. Seems to be the same thing so I will take it!


I agree, the data says it all, some restrictions were more effective, and some where less effective.
I haven't seen any contrary data saying that no restrictions were effective.
We all know masks are effective, vaccines are effective, distancing is effective.


----------



## Beaver101

While Ontario (a province) in Canada is trying to open up, mask wearing/mouth/nose/cover up is to stay until at least end of September 2021. 

Toronto extends mask wearing, other COVID-19 bylaws until the end of September

And included in the above for the City of Toronto, Ontario:



> ..._ Also approved Wednesday is a recommendation by de Villa to conduct a monthly assessment on the spread and impacts of COVID-19 should the bylaws need to end, be extended or amended.... _


Sounds prudent to me.


----------



## 307169

@MrMatt @damian13ster 

The fact that every time we have a lock down things improve, and every time we lift it, it get worst suggest that this is a ABAB quasi experiment that show lock down is likely to work in stopping our medical system from overloading, as we switch between lockdown (B) and no lockdown (A).

I do agree there are serious side effect with lock down. Lots of businesses goes belly up, suicide and domestic violence go through the roof, many people will die of cancer due to delay treatment, possible permanent impairment of metal development of children as schools are close, and important scientific researches at universities being put on hold to name a few.

Ultimately, we need an independent inquiry right after the pandemic is over to figure out what have happen, and to figure out what should we do to improve our responses in the future.


----------



## Beaver101

> ... Ultimately, we need an independent inquiry right after the pandemic is over to figure out what have happen, and to figure out what should we do to improve our responses in the future.


 ... I think we should first fire some "experts" who sat on a/the "Pandemic Reponse" panel that was created years ago before wasting more taxpayers $$$ to do a post-mortem.


----------



## james4beach

I think Canada has to think very carefully before rushing to re-open everything.

The delta variant causes 91% of UK infections. The latest numbers from BC showed delta accounts for less than 10% of cases here, and I presume that applies across Canada.

Ontario has projections that delta is soon going to take over in that province and become the dominant strain.

The UK has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world but is still seeing some outbreaks and rates of case growth that are too high. This is very likely due to Delta being less responsive to vaccines.

*Here in Canada we don't yet have to deal with delta, but it's coming*. Guaranteed. So I'm not a fan of opening back up to 100 person weddings and indoor bars and nightclubs, because we're just going to accelerate the spread of delta, until it eventually becomes all of our cases (like the UK has).

This pandemic isn't over and we might have to shut down again. Everyone should continue to be cautious, and I'm obviously going to keep wearing a mask around strangers (indoors) and minimize my high risk situations, even when I am fully vaccinated.

Meeting with friends and family though... yes of course. No need to stop social contact. I'm saying, let's not be stupid. Keep wearing the mask and avoid unnecessary risks.


----------



## sags

The longer we resist effective lock downs to kill off the virus, the more time the virus has to mutate again and again.

The Delta (India) virus is not the last. The Vietnam virus is already in Asia and no doubt more will be coming.

The Vietnam virus is a hybrid of the UK and India viruses.........so that is an important change in the virus mutations.

The answer scientists need to know from China is.........what exactly did they create.


----------



## 307169

Beaver101 said:


> ... I think we should first fire some "experts" who sat on a/the "Pandemic Reponse" panel that was created years ago before wasting more taxpayers $$$ to do a post-mortem.


An independent inquiry inherently means finding another panel of expert to investigate, otherwise, such investigation is a sham.

However, as the field of public health is very small, it is unavoidable that the people that investigate will know the people that are being investigated.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> I think Canada has to think very carefully before rushing to re-open everything.
> 
> The delta variant causes 91% of UK infections. The latest numbers from BC showed delta accounts for less than 10% of cases here, and I presume that applies across Canada.
> 
> Ontario has projections that delta is soon going to take over in that province and become the dominant strain.
> 
> The UK has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world but is still seeing some outbreaks and rates of case growth that are too high. This is very likely due to Delta being less responsive to vaccines.
> 
> *Here in Canada we don't yet have to deal with delta, but it's coming*. Guaranteed. So I'm not a fan of opening back up to 100 person weddings and indoor bars and nightclubs, because we're just going to accelerate the spread of delta, until it eventually becomes all of our cases (like the UK has).
> 
> This pandemic isn't over and we might have to shut down again. Everyone should continue to be cautious, and I'm obviously going to keep wearing a mask around strangers (indoors) and minimize my high risk situations, even when I am fully vaccinated.
> 
> Meeting with friends and family though... yes of course. No need to stop social contact. I'm saying, let's not be stupid. Keep wearing the mask and avoid unnecessary risks.


I'm afraid that the problem with UK cases going up , because majority of people got AZ that from beginning wasn't good against variants (I feel bad as I didn't convince my wife to wait for mRNA and skip AZ ). Some other countries who mostly uses AZ and Chinese crap also have number of cases spiking.
On the other hand, even though UK number of cases are up, deaths are down, for more than a months UK death daily average is in single digits , it's nothing...

But again, look are the most successful country in vaccination, Israel. They have 10 cases per day on average. Whole country has only 218 Covid sick people (and only 36 people have serious condition).
imho, this is because Israel used only Pfizer and Moderna.









With most adults vaccinated and case numbers low, Israel removes many restrictions.


About 81 percent of Israel’s adult population has been fully vaccinated. People must still wear masks in closed, public spaces.




www.nytimes.com





_*With new coronavirus cases dropping to below 20 a day, Israel on Tuesday retired its Green Pass system and will now allow equal access to restaurants, sports events, cultural activities and the like to vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens.*_
*Restrictions on the sizes of gatherings have also been lifted.
The decision came less than three months after Israel, a real-world laboratory for the efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, pioneered its digitized Green Pass system and became a test case for an inoculated society.*
_*For now, the only remaining pandemic restriction inside the country is a requirement to wear masks in closed public spaces, although that, too, is under discussion by health officials. *The main efforts to control the coronavirus are now centered on restrictions for travel in and out of Israel, based on testing and quarantine. *Strict limitations remain on the entry of people who are not Israeli citizens.
“The Green Pass project was very successful,” said Tomer Lotan, the policy chief of Israel’s national coronavirus response center, summing up the experiment of the past few months. It was particularly effective, he said, as an incentive to encourage the 16-to-40 age group to get vaccinated and to allow Israel to reopen its economy.*
“But anybody who did not get vaccinated by now is probably not going to,” Mr. Lotan said.
*About 81 percent of Israel’s adult population has been fully vaccinated*, but about 2.6 million children under 16 are still not eligible, out of a total population of just over nine million. Up to a million people have chosen not to be inoculated, despite Israel’s enviable supply of vaccine doses.
Even with schools fully open and operating in a regular format, infection rates among children have remained low. In general, national infection rates are down to single digits on some days, from a peak of 10,000 a day in January.
Israel was among the first countries to grapple with some of the legal and moral issues arising from a two-tiered system for vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Because getting vaccinated has been voluntary, some people who chose not to or could not be vaccinated argued that the Green Pass system was discriminatory. Enforcement was also patchy.
With infection rates so low, Mr. Lotan said that the Green Pass had outlived its usefulness. Businesses complained about the additional burden of enforcing the rules. And movie complexes and other leisure attractions did not reopen, because it was unprofitable as long as unvaccinated children could not enter without showing a recent negative Covid-19 test, which many found impractical.
“A few months ago, if you would’ve told us we’d be in this current situation, it would probably seem like science-fiction,” said Nadav Davidovitch of the School of Public Health at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.
The big question now, he said, is whether Israel has reached some degree of herd immunity. “Even if we are not there,” he said, “we are probably very close.”_
P.S. btw, Canada already overpassed Israel by number of people who got 1st dose. It's time to reopen.


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> But again, look are the most successful country in vaccination, Israel. They have 10 cases per day on average. Whole country has only 218 Covid sick people (and only 36 people have serious condition).
> *imho, this is because Israel used only Pfizer and Moderna*.


I agree that Israel is absolutely the country to watch.

Good news for Israel is good news for us as well.


----------



## Money172375

Think we need to give greater emphasis to deaths and severe illness vs # case Moving forward. Many partially vaccinated people (or inferior vaccinated people- AZ?) will catch COVID, suffer a few days and recover. We need to focus on deaths when making decisions. As many have said, everyone will be exposed at some time….the hope is to survive without LT issues.


----------



## sags

There are 88% of the world's population without a single vaccination of any kind.

Do people think that if international travel is opened up, the virus won't start to spread globally again, and very likely will be a new variant ?

The scientists need to learn how the virus mutates and how to defeat mutations, or we will have some form of this virus until they do.

That is why they need to know the origin of the virus and how it was created, so perhaps they can block the method of change.


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> There are 88% of the world's population without a single vaccination of any kind.
> 
> Do people think that if international travel is opened up, the virus won't start to spread globally again, and very likely will be a new variant ?
> 
> The scientists need to learn how the virus mutates and how to defeat mutations, or we will have some form of this virus until they do.


I think we'd have to know what portion of those 88% travel internationally.

ltr


----------



## damian13ster

We will have strains and variants of this virus forever. Just as any other easily spreadable viruses that we had in the past. They still linger and pop up here and there. Just need to live with it.
There will be annual flu and annual covid vaccines. Either they will get it right in predicting particular strain and season will be mild, or they will be wrong with predicting and season will be bit harsher.
It is what it is


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Ontario has projections that delta is soon going to take over in that province and become the dominant strain.
> 
> *Here in Canada we don't yet have to deal with delta, but it's coming*.


What?
Those are contradictory, it's already the dominant variant and will overtake the initial strain in weeks.
We are already dealing with it.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> What?
> Those are contradictory, it's already the dominant variant and will overtake the initial strain in weeks.
> We are already dealing with it.


Is it already the dominant strain? I had not heard that before. The last I heard, delta was still minor in British Columbia.

Is it already dominant in Ontario?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Is it already the dominant strain? I had not heard that before. The last I heard, delta was still minor in British Columbia.
> 
> Is it already dominant in Ontario?


No but the delta variant is the most prevalent of the new strains, and as you commented it will soon be the dominant strain.

So it's here and we're already dealing with it.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> No but the delta variant is the most prevalent of the new strains, and as you commented it will soon be the dominant strain.
> 
> So it's here and we're already dealing with it.


What is your sense of how we're positioned, with respect to vaccines. Do you think delta might increase our case counts / hospitalizations again until we have double-shot protection?

Or do you think that our high % of single shot protection can keep a lid on delta, keeping case counts low?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> What is your sense of how we're positioned, with respect to vaccines. Do you think delta might increase our case counts / hospitalizations again until we have double-shot protection?
> 
> Or do you think that our high % of single shot protection can keep a lid on delta, keeping case counts low?


I don't have much of an opinion on this, but it really doesn't matter.
The people don't want lockdowns, so the government will only implement them if the hospitals fill up.


----------



## bgc_fan

like_to_retire said:


> I think we'd have to know what portion of those 88% travel internationally.
> 
> ltr


It's not that simple. Unless travel is completely halted with these countries, those who are not vaccinated are always going to be a risk to becoming a source of new variants. And existing vaccines may not be as effective. So even vaccinated people who travel to countries with low rates of vaccination could return home with a more virulent or deadly variant.


----------



## Beaver101

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toro...nts-with-long-term-symptoms-experts-1.6063936

More tsunamis incoming!!!!


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> What is your sense of how we're positioned, with respect to vaccines. Do you think delta might increase our case counts / hospitalizations again until we have double-shot protection?
> 
> Or do you think that our high % of single shot protection can keep a lid on delta, keeping case counts low?


As with previous waves, I think we need to look to europe and/or the UK. I’ve read that the UK is dealing with increases due to Delta. In addition, it seems AZ, which the UK has relied upon, is less effective against Delta.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I read that AZ was more effective against the latest strain from India, Delta so why the change? Who do we believe in the news with respect to the efficacy of the vaccines????!


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ I read that AZ was more effective against the latest strain from India, Delta so why the change? Who do we believe in the news with respect to the efficacy of the vaccines????!


You also have to consider what "effective" means for a vaccine. 
Realistically once we get the baseline we'll just have variant boosters, which we expected pretty early once we found that vaccines were possible.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> You also have to consider what "effective" means for a vaccine.
> Realistically once we get the baseline we'll just have variant boosters, which we expected pretty early once we found that vaccines were possible.


 ... yeah, just like the annual flu-shots.


----------



## james4beach

Many months ago, the story was that children aren't spreading COVID or a big source of the problem.

Boy has the story changed on this! I knew the kids were spreading COVID, and used to always point that out. The schools were spreading it in the communities, not to mention when people brought their kids to the grocery stores etc.

Today, public health says that outbreaks among adults aren't happening much (due to vaccination) but children are now circulating and spreading it. Obviously, if children are spreading COVID today, *they always were in the past as well*.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Many months ago, the story was that children aren't spreading COVID or a big source of the problem.
> 
> Boy has the story changed on this! I knew the kids were spreading COVID, and used to always point that out. The schools were spreading it in the communities, not to mention when people brought their kids to the grocery stores etc.
> 
> Today, public health says that outbreaks among adults aren't happening much (due to vaccination) but children are now circulating and spreading it. Obviously, if children are spreading COVID today, *they always were in the past as well*.


You knew based on no data suggesting it?
I thought they were, this was a logical assumption based on my observations with commicable diseases.
Then when the data showed they weren't I started thinking they weren't.

If there is new data showing they're spreading, I'd like to see it.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> You knew based on no data suggesting it?
> I thought they were, this was a logical assumption based on my observations with commicable diseases.
> Then when the data showed they weren't I started thinking they weren't.
> 
> If there is new data showing they're spreading, I'd like to see it.


I'd like to see that data too. I meant that based on life experience, I know that kids get sick, and pass on every disease to each other and their parents. I didn't see why COVID would be any different.

But if you'll remember, the public was repeatedly assured that the children were not spreading COVID in the community.

So if kids aren't spreading this, why do we have to worry about it now? And why do they have to be vaccinated? If it's true that children don't catch and spread COVID to anyone else, then they don't need to be vaccinated.


----------



## Synergy

james4beach said:


> Many months ago, the story was that children aren't spreading COVID or a big source of the problem.
> 
> Boy has the story changed on this! I knew the kids were spreading COVID, and used to always point that out. The schools were spreading it in the communities, not to mention when people brought their kids to the grocery stores etc.
> 
> Today, public health says that outbreaks among adults aren't happening much (due to vaccination) but children are now circulating and spreading it. Obviously, if children are spreading COVID today, *they always were in the past as well*.


Schools are cesspool of disease. If you've ever worked in an office environment you will have first hand experience. Grandparents, parents with young children, etc. share the love with the rest of the office! Anyone that thinks otherwise needs to get their head screwed on straight. If one can control disease spreading amongst children you'd control the spread amongst adults, elderly grandparents, etc.

Problem is, children build up strong immune systems by getting sick, exposing themselves to germs, etc. . I think I even seen a recent study that showed exposure to COVID provides for a more robust immune response, better long term immunity, etc. Schools are like one big coronavirus party!


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> Many months ago, the story was that children aren't spreading COVID or a big source of the problem.
> 
> Boy has the story changed on this! I knew the kids were spreading COVID, and used to always point that out. The schools were spreading it in the communities, not to mention when people brought their kids to the grocery stores etc.
> 
> Today, public health says that outbreaks among adults aren't happening much (due to vaccination) but children are now circulating and spreading it. Obviously, if children are spreading COVID today, *they always were in the past as well*.


I think that’s probably true, but I’m not sure it was happening in the classroom. Yes, there was the odd case in a school or a classroom, but I rarely, if ever heard about multiple kids in the same class getting sick.

it definitely spread during play dates, sleep overs, team sports (that occurred in secret throughout covid) Birthday parties etc. I live over an hour away from my closet friends. They live in Peel and toronto…probably the biggest hotspots in Canada. None of them did anything to shield their kids from “normal“ kid activities throughout the pandemic.


----------



## Money172375

I don’t know what it’s like in other jurisdictions, but my kids in high school were in cohorts. No going from classroom to classroom for four different subjects during the day with 4 different groups of classmates. They spent an entire week in the same classroom with the same classmates. 

the caf was closed. Couldn’t leave school property for lunch. The after school gathering was badly managed, especially for the kids that walk to school. They tried to mitigate that by releasing kids who walk, drive or take the bus in 3 separate stages at the end of the day. I thought they did the nest they could under the circumstances. 

Their school hasn’t had one case of covid amongst the student body or staff since covid started. Admittedly, our city has only had 400 cases.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> Their school hasn’t had one case of covid amongst the student body or staff since covid started. Admittedly, our city has only had 400 cases


It's pretty amazing if the school measures were this effective in preventing the spread.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I'd like to see that data too. I meant that based on life experience, I know that kids get sick, and pass on every disease to each other and their parents. I didn't see why COVID would be any different.
> 
> But if you'll remember, the public was repeatedly assured that the children were not spreading COVID in the community.
> 
> So if kids aren't spreading this, why do we have to worry about it now? And why do they have to be vaccinated? If it's true that children don't catch and spread COVID to anyone else, then they don't need to be vaccinated.


I think this is an emotional politics vs science debate.
Politics wins. 

Schools weren't spreading COVID, but kids did get COVID. I think the reason is that the schools measures (wearing masks etc) were effective.
When kids played and interacted outside schools or in homes, mask wearing wasn't as prevalent.

That's my guess.


----------



## Beaver101

^ And in the meantime of the raging pandemic, our Education Minister Lecce's expertise was flip-flopping and then go running to grandpa Ford with the question "what do I do?" Should the school close, or open? Upgrade the ventilation systems to quell the nose?. How about half in=person, half virtual - hey the parents might like it." Boy, are our taxpayers dollars being well-spent hiring expert bozos.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ And in the meantime of the raging pandemic, our Education Minister Lecce's expertise was flip-flopping or running to grandpa Ford with the question "what do I do?". Boy, are our taxpayers dollars being well-spent hiring bozos.


In a confusing situation with no hard answers they made their best guesses and moved forward.
I second guessed and disagreed to.. my opposition to the single dose vaccine plan from the Feds was pretty strong, that gamble turned out good.

Sure the school year was a mess, but we have a lower death rate than Europe or the US. For a bunch of bumbling idiots (which I don't dispute, I don't like government in general) Canada and Ontario seemed to do quite well.


----------



## Beaver101

Vaccines, low COVID case counts increase Father's Day hope, but risk is still there

_



Deonandan said it's better to have distanced visits between children and their grandparents, but hugs can be safe with masks.

“Just no wet kisses,” he added.

Deonandan warned not to consider fully-vaccinated grandfathers “bulletproof,” however, especially in COVID-19 hot spots *where children could be asymptomatic carriers.*

“The probability (of spread) is low. Vaccines offer good protection ...* but do you really want to roll that dice?*” ...

Click to expand...

_Sounds like this Father's Day is a tad better. Grand-kids get to kiss grandparents with a mask on. Just "no wet kisses".


----------



## moderator2

Off topic posts moved to Politics


----------



## james4beach

Here's an interesting new study about the spread of COVID in schools in BC

The researchers took blood samples from teachers and staff at schools, to look at antibody levels. They found the same level of antibodies as the broad population, so the teachers *did not* have higher levels of COVID.

That means that adults working in BC schools are not picking up COVID from the kids. It could be that the protection measures used in schools were effective, or maybe the kids don't easily transmit COVID.

I think this means that even if COVID flares up again in the winter, and cases are rising again, schools should be able to use the same kind of safety measures already in place and continue operating.


----------



## Bananatron

james4beach said:


> Here's an interesting new study about the spread of COVID in schools in BC
> 
> The researchers took blood samples from teachers and staff at schools, to look at antibody levels. They found the same level of antibodies as the broad population, so the teachers *did not* have higher levels of COVID.
> 
> That means that adults working in BC schools are not picking up COVID from the kids. It could be that the protection measures used in schools were effective, or maybe the kids don't easily transmit COVID.
> 
> I think this means that even if COVID flares up again in the winter, and cases are rising again, schools should be able to use the same kind of safety measures already in place and continue operating.


We've had schools open for 4 weeks, after a two week hiatus.

Considering a very small percentage of the student population is vaccinated compared to the general population, one would expect to see some spread in schools even now if they truly were a vector of spread, but here we are. 

They never were a major vector, and it's a real shame some jurisdictions closed them down so readily.


----------



## james4beach

Bananatron said:


> They never were a major vector, and it's a real shame some jurisdictions closed them down so readily.


I wish we could have just used better measures and kept things like this open. That's what Taiwan did, and they had schools running throughout the pandemic, as far as I know.

A friend of mine runs a day care and she's been starved for income. I was in touch with her today and she's luckily able to collect EI, but is very eager to re-start her day care (she has the licenses etc). And no question the parents need her services as well!

She's ready to go. She's also very cautious about COVID, and of course fully vaccinated now.


----------



## MrMatt

Bananatron said:


> They never were a major vector, and it's a real shame some jurisdictions closed them down so readily.


I think once the data that the schools weren't a major vector they should have reopened them.
But then it's really hard to enforce the other distancing, which unfortunately WAS a significant factor.

It's really hard to say "you can go to school with 30 kids, but you can't go to Billys house"


----------



## Beaver101

For wannabe anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, lockdown refusers, restrictions crybabies, Covid-deniers, still time to take your case to court:

Houston hospital workers fired, resign over COVID-19 vaccine

*



Houston hospital workers fired, resign over COVID-19 vaccine

Click to expand...

*


> More than 150 employees at a Houston hospital system who refused to get the COVID-19 vaccine have been fired or resigned after a judge dismissed an employee lawsuit over the vaccine requirement
> By JAMIE STENGLE Associated Press
> 22 June 2021, 23:46
> ...


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> For wannabe anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, lockdown refusers, restrictions crybabies, Covid-deniers, still time to take your case to court:
> 
> Houston hospital workers fired, resign over COVID-19 vaccine


Mandatory medical procedures is really problematic as a policy.
In this case the risk of death is low, but what about other procedures?

It's clearly a human right violation to require a medical procedure as a condition of employment, if it's a reasonable restriction who knows. 
I think everyone should get vaccinated, the risk is so low for most that there is no reasonable reason no to. However I do not think we should allow the government or employers to be permitted to force staff/citizens to undergo medical procedures they deem appropriate, the government has a pretty bad history here, specifically forced sterilization of "undesirables".


----------



## Beaver101

^


> ... However I do not think we should allow the government or employers to be permitted to force staff/citizens to undergo medical procedures they deem appropriate, the government has a pretty bad history here, *specifically forced sterilization of "undesirables". *


 ... not comparable here. But you might want to ask any patient seriously infected/impacted by Covid if they would rather be sterilized and get to live or put on a ventilator with a good (90%) chance of dying. 

However, with that analogy, you do make a point of acknowledging systemic-wide discrimination in the work place, may it be disability, gender, sexual preference, colour of your skin, etc.


----------



## damian13ster

Texas is 'employment at will' state. The ruling has zero implications for Canada or any of the states that aren't employment at will


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Texas is 'employment at will' state. *The ruling has zero implications for Canada or any of the states that aren't employment at will*


 ... are you sure about that for Canada because employment is at will also if I'm not mistaken.


----------



## damian13ster

You are mistaken (unless I am mistaken I guess  ).
There is no at will employment in Canada. 
Just to specify, lack of at-will employment doesn't mean employment is forced!
Simply there is much less laws around termination or quitting of an employee


----------



## Bananatron

damian13ster said:


> You are mistaken (unless I am mistaken I guess  ).
> There is no at will employment in Canada.
> Just to specify, lack of at-will employment doesn't mean employment is forced!
> Simply there is much less laws around termination or quitting of an employee


Yes, as far as I understand it, in "at will" employment states your boss can fire you because he doesn't like the shirt you wore to work. Or to your brothers wedding.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> You are mistaken* (unless I am mistaken I guess  ). *
> There is no at will employment in Canada.
> Just to specify, lack of at-will employment doesn't mean employment is forced!
> Simply there is much less laws around termination or quitting of an employee


 ... afraid it's the latter . Just that you got your concept reversed with "no at will employment in Canada."

Canada's employment arena is 110% "at will" meaning your boss can fire you for "any reason". Bananatron confirmed that also. 

I would up that reason one step further - they can fire you also because they don't like the colour of your skin due to our lame and weak laws.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... afraid it's the latter . Just that you got your concept reversed with "no at will employment in Canada."
> 
> Canada's employment arena is 110% "at will" meaning your boss can fire you for "any reason". Bananatron confirmed that also.
> 
> I would up that reason one step further - they can fire you also because they don't like the colour of your skin due to our lame and weak laws.


Actually at least in Ontario the human rights tribunals can order a rehire or order compensation for termination due to discrimination.
That being said you don't actually have to provide a reason to terminate someone, and some advise it's best if you don't. Really giving a reason only opens up problems, and offers no benefits. If you give reasons they want to negotiate etc, but those discussions should happen BEFORE it gets to the point that you feel a termination is necessary.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Actually at least in Ontario the human rights tribunals can order a rehire or order compensation for termination due to discrimination.


 ... I guess the law is as good as the paper (which is worth less than toilet paper these days) it's written on.



> That being said you don't actually have to provide a reason to terminate someone, and some advise it's best if you don't. Really giving a reason only opens up problems, and offers no benefits. If you give reasons they want to negotiate etc, but those discussions should happen BEFORE it gets to the point that you feel a termination is necessary.


 ... of course, that's what smart employers do. [Provided the employee didn't commit a crime. Or a case of termination with a cause.] Don't give a reason but you have to give notice or compensation in lieu of that. But some don't and they don't give a fig. Some got their heads buried in a sand and hoping the employee just go away ... at will. LMAO.


----------



## Spudd

MrMatt said:


> Mandatory medical procedures is really problematic as a policy.
> In this case the risk of death is low, but what about other procedures?
> 
> It's clearly a human right violation to require a medical procedure as a condition of employment, if it's a reasonable restriction who knows.


In general I'd agree but it's already required to get certain vaccinations to work in a hospital/health care role. This is because unvaccinated health care workers can spread disease to already sick patients. 

Here's the guideline from Canada's website:
*Health care workers*
Health care workers (HCW), including hospital employees, other staff who work or study in hospitals (e.g., students in health care disciplines, contract workers, volunteers) and other health care personnel (e.g., those working in clinical laboratories, nursing homes, home care agencies and community settings) are at risk of exposure to communicable diseases because of their contact with patients/clients (diagnosed or undiagnosed) or their environment. There is also a risk that HCW could transmit an undiagnosed vaccine-preventable disease to others. Some health care institutions and jurisdictions are moving towards making vaccination a condition of employment for HCW.
HCW require assessment of immunization status, completion of routinely recommended vaccine series, and booster doses as necessary. In addition, HCW may require additional doses or booster doses of routine immunizations, or a change in the routine immunization schedule. Unimmunized or incompletely immunized HCW should receive routine immunizations as appropriate for age as well as vaccines recommended because of specific occupational risks. Refer to Table 1 for a summary of recommended immunizations for HCW.


----------



## MrMatt

Spudd said:


> In general I'd agree but it's already required to get certain vaccinations to work in a hospital/health care role. This is because unvaccinated health care workers can spread disease to already sick patients.


I also agree with that, the question is if it is a reasonable infringement on ones rights.
Regarding the heart issues with mRNA vaccines, it appears to be hundreds or thousands of cases per million, fortunately only a handful per million appear to be serious.

But should legitimate health concerns about a medical procedure be given the same accommodation as other issues.
I would argue that a reasonable accommodation for those who choose not to undergo these medical procedures would be alternative duties if available.

Remember no medical intervention is without some risk, and these vaccines DO kill people in rare instances.








COVID-19 Vaccine FAQ







www.icsi.org





We actually have an open pandoras box, and it's an interesting one.
What risk of death should a person be subjected to as a condition of employment? That's really the question.

I think 1 in 100k every decade or so would be acceptable, or 1 in a million/year.
But I think 1 in 100k risk every day is not.

I think right now the risks of COVID19 vaccines appear low enough to mandate usage, but if the risk of side effects is really 1/1000 or even 1/10k we really have to consider if that's a risk we want to force people to take.


----------



## sags

Should the public have the right to know if they are dealing with a company employee who chose not to be vaccinated ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Should the public have the right to know if they are dealing with a company employee who chose not to be vaccinated ?


Should the public have a right to know and select service based on your religious or political views?

Should I be permitted to demand to be treated by a man, or someone of a particular religion?


Since it appears both vaccinated and unvaccinated people are capable of spreading COVID19, what legitimate reason do you, as a third party, have the right to demand someone undergo a potential lethal medical procedure?

Even if it puts you at greater risk, do you want employers and customers to be able to demand staff undergo potentially lethal medical procedures?

I think everyone should be vaccinated, I am also strongly against anyone, government or private corporation mandating that people undergo potentially lethal medical procedures to provide or access any service. Particularly services that are operated by a government monopoly.


----------



## bgc_fan

As part of the water is wet obviousness. Nearly 30% of those surveyed admitted to breaking covid restrictions.

The most common ones were gathering limits and mask wearing. Hardly a surprise when you get those stories about covid cases spreading after a family gathering. 









Nearly 30 per cent of respondents broke COVID-19 restrictions: Canada-wide survey


The survey by the Canadian Hub for Applied and Social Research at the University of Saskatchewan was done between June 1 and June 14. It asked 1,000 peopleabout how closely they stuck to public health orders and where they were getting their information about the pandemic.




www.thestar.com


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Should the public have a right to know and select service based on your religious or political views?
> 
> Should I be permitted to demand to be treated by a man, or someone of a particular religion?
> 
> 
> Since it appears both vaccinated and unvaccinated people are capable of spreading COVID19, what legitimate reason do you, as a third party, have the right to demand someone undergo a potential lethal medical procedure?
> 
> Even if it puts you at greater risk, do you want employers and customers to be able to demand staff undergo potentially lethal medical procedures?
> 
> I think everyone should be vaccinated, I am also strongly against anyone, government or private corporation mandating that people undergo potentially lethal medical procedures to provide or access any service. Particularly services that are operated by a government monopoly.


I vote with my dollars. If they allow un-vaccinated people in, they don't get any of my dollars.


----------



## damian13ster

Luckily seeing how full the restaurants now from the very day they opened, you are simply extremely loud minority.
You are welcome to stay home until 2030 if you want. Bars and restaurants are pretty much full since reopening without you. Walking around downtown and seeing crowds, businesses beginning to recover is extremely uplifting!


----------



## james4beach

BC is still reporting very low numbers, thankfully, with strong vaccination uptake.

However, someone in their 20s died of COVID over the weekend so I hope people (even young people) remember that this is still a serious, infectious disease.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I vote with my dollars. If they allow un-vaccinated people in, they don't get any of my dollars.


Not surprised, you don't think those people are entitled to human rights.

Replace that with race, gender, religion, political ideology, disabilities and it's obvious how wrong you are.
But simply choosing not to undergo a potential lethal medical procedure, and you're willing to banish them from society.

I think this is actually my biggest issue with people like you. You have no principles, they're nebulous and undefined.

Now I would be willing to discuss if it was a "reasonable" infringement on ones rights, like locking up dangerous criminals. 
I simply don't think you should have to risk death to go out to a restaurant.


----------



## andrewf

Sags is fully within his rights to choose not to patronize establishments for any reason. Expecting them to bend to his will is another matter.


----------



## sags

The businesses can do whatever they want. It is their call on how to operate their business.

But I expect that employee's rights will be respected as well and they should not be forced to work in unsafe conditions over threats to cut off benefits.

The employees who choose not to work in places where they feel unsafe, should collect benefits until they can find another job.

Already there are many complaints of worker shortages and demands to cut off the benefits to force people back to work.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Not surprised, you don't think those people are entitled to human rights.
> 
> Replace that with race, gender, religion, political ideology, disabilities and it's obvious how wrong you are.
> But simply choosing not to undergo a potential lethal medical procedure, and you're willing to banish them from society.
> 
> I think this is actually my biggest issue with people like you. You have no principles, they're nebulous and undefined.
> 
> Now I would be willing to discuss if it was a "reasonable" infringement on ones rights, like locking up dangerous criminals.
> I simply don't think you should have to risk death to go out to a restaurant.


But it is okay to force the employees to risk their health and possible death. People in restaurants won't be wearing a mask and the virus is spread through airborne means and by ventilation systems. The Delta virus is highly infectious...........but hey......who cares about the employees.


----------



## sags

I predict the government will relax restrictions, there will be outbreaks, the numbers will start climbing and they will apply restrictions again.

The experts say that vaccines do not give immunity. They provide some protection against the worst symptoms, but not always.

The experts also say to continue wearing a mask even if fully vaccinated.

People eating in restaurants or hanging out in bars don't wear a mask and they are all breathing the same ventilated air.

But.......people pays their money and takes their chances. I just won't be paying my money and taking my chances.


----------



## damian13ster

You use a lot of space to communicate that you will not be attending a restaurant. We get that. We don't care.
Every individual will make their own decision. And you can do the same. You don't have the power to make the decision for other individuals. They will do it themselves.
If you are in working age you have higher chance of dying driving to work and yet no one suggests that you should get benefits if you decide this is not the risk you are willing to take. You are talking complete nonsense.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The experts also say to continue wearing a mask even if fully vaccinated.


Some do, some don't.
For example in Canada they're saying you often don't need to wear a mask if you're fully vaccinated.


https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/awareness-resources/vaccinated-against-covid-19-public-health-measures/vaccinated-against-covid-19-public-health-measures.pdf


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> But it is okay to force the employees to risk their health and possible death. People in restaurants won't be wearing a mask and the virus is spread through airborne means and by ventilation systems. The Delta virus is highly infectious...........but hey......who cares about the employees.


Well yes, I know people who are highly allergic to dogs. Their throat swells up and they can't breathe.
But they legally can't deny access to a service animal.

So yes, employees may have to risk their health and possible death to protect human rights of others. 

I'm not saying anything new hear. I'm not even arguing it is the appropriate trade off. I'm simply pointing out that it is a question of human rights, and if we want to force potentially lethal medical procedures to have those human rights.

I personally think everyone should be vaccinated, but I really don't like forcing medical procedures on people. My point is that this is simply a case of a conflict between the human rights of 2 people.


----------



## damian13ster

Edmonton dropping mask mandate when province enters stage 3 (July 1)


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Some do, some don't.
> For example in Canada they're saying you often don't need to wear a mask if you're fully vaccinated.
> 
> 
> https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/awareness-resources/vaccinated-against-covid-19-public-health-measures/vaccinated-against-covid-19-public-health-measures.pdf


Likely printed before the Delta variant became the dominant virus. All the experts I have heard say to continue to wear a mask.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Likely printed before the Delta variant became the dominant virus. All the experts I have heard say to continue to wear a mask.


It was printed Fri 25 Jun 2021 12:42:01 PM EDT.


----------



## james4beach

I'm going to be wearing a mask when shopping in stores for the foreseeable future. I'm not going to start taking chances just because other people are overconfident about their vaccinations.

Plus, there are unvaccinated people AND travellers all around us. Another good reason to wear masks while in a store.

When hanging out with my own friends and family, of course it's different and not as much caution needed.


----------



## damian13ster

Why do you assume they are overconfident? Maybe you don't have enough confidence?
Nevertheless, no one is prohibiting you from wearing a mask. Simply no longer mandating it


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> I'm going to be wearing a mask when shopping in stores for the foreseeable future. I'm not going to start taking chances just because other people are overconfident about their vaccinations.
> 
> Plus, there are unvaccinated people AND travellers all around us. Another good reason to wear masks while in a store.
> 
> When hanging out with my own friends and family, of course it's different and not as much caution needed.


Haven’t heard much on this lately…….do fully vaccinated people shed the virus still?


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> Haven’t heard much on this lately…….do fully vaccinated people shed the virus still?


Not sure if they shed it, but part of the idea with being cautious is that this is a constantly-evolving situation. The virus can mutate faster than we can have policy responses. So wearing a mask in public is a *proactive* defensive measures in a situation where we have LOTS of uncertainty about how this will play out.

By the way - in BC, there have so far been 8 deaths of fully vaccinated people, based on what I remember hearing from Bonnie Henry's latest address on the radio.

I also remember a couple weeks ago, Bill Maher (talkshow host) who is fully vaccinated had caught covid. He disappeared from his show, and then re-appeared later saying that he had covid but didn't get very sick. However listening to him talk, you could hear that his voice was very raspy and "off". Clearly, even while fully vaccinated, he caught covid to the point that he showed symptoms.

None of that is a disaster, but just realize there are limits to what the vaccinations can do AND it's an evolving situation. It would be prudent to continue wearing masks in dense public areas around strangers, IMHO.

I bought a plane ticket and will be flying soon, but I'm wearing my best medical mask and will stay as far away from people as I can.


----------



## andrewf

I would 100% be flying with a good N95 mask, if I had to fly.


----------



## Money172375

If the vaccine only lessens symptoms and doesn’t stop shedding, aren’t we all going to get exposed and catch it at some point? Seems like public health is already talking about treating It as another type of “flu”. At some point, I think all restrictions will need to end…including mask wearing….unless you’re elderly or high risk.

heck, i know people who wear masks in their own backyards.


----------



## gibor365

damian13ster said:


> Why do you assume they are overconfident? Maybe you don't have enough confidence?
> Nevertheless, no one is prohibiting you from wearing a mask. Simply no longer mandating it


Everyone who wishes can also wear military gas masks LOL


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> I would 100% be flying with a good N95 mask, if I had to fly.


On opposite, I won't be flying (maybe except Caribbean) if wearing masks on the planes and airports will be mandatory.... No any intention to suffer for 10-16 hours wearing those masks!


----------



## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> If the vaccine only lessens symptoms and doesn’t stop shedding, aren’t we all going to get exposed and catch it at some point? Seems like public health is already talking about treating It as another type of “flu”. At some point, I think all restrictions will need to end…including mask wearing….unless you’re elderly or high risk.
> 
> heck, i know people who wear masks in their own backyards.


What is the point of getting infected? "Natural" immunity doesn't guarantee you won't get infected again in future.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> On opposite, I won't be flying (maybe except Caribbean) if wearing masks on the planes and airports will be mandatory.... No any intention to suffer for 10-16 hours wearing those masks!


 ... no intention of suffering from having to wear a mask (including the dusty military one pulled from the closet) on a plane going anywhere except to the Carribeans. LMAO.


----------



## Bananatron

james4beach said:


> I'm going to be wearing a mask when shopping in stores for the foreseeable future. I'm not going to start taking chances just because other people are overconfident about their vaccinations.
> 
> Plus, there are unvaccinated people AND travellers all around us. Another good reason to wear masks while in a store.
> 
> When hanging out with my own friends and family, of course it's different and not as much caution needed.


That's where the majority of spread occurred, close contact between family and friends. 

I suggest you wear a mask in all situations, if you believe in their effectiveness.


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> That's where the majority of spread occurred, close contact between family and friends.
> 
> I suggest you wear a mask in all situations, if you believe in their effectiveness.


Do you suggest that wearing mask is a must while having sex?! LOL


----------



## Bananatron

gibor365 said:


> Do you suggest that wearing mask is a must while having sex?! LOL


If you think that they are important enough to wear while in public, it's irresponsible and selfish to not wear one while around friends and loved ones. That's where the majority of spread occurs, why wouldn't you want a life saving mask? 

Personally, once in no longer forced by law to wear a mask, I'll stop altogether.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Selfishness and irresponsibility are not words in his vocabulary, let alone an understanding of them. I feel for his wife.


----------



## sags

gibor365 said:


> Do you suggest that wearing mask is a must while having sex?! LOL


Not necessary if you are alone at the time.


----------



## james4beach

Las Vegas ... no masks, few vaccinations, tons of visitors.

They have the highest national rate for new COVID infections. A huge jump in hospital admissions for people in their 30s.


----------



## sags

Las Vegas also has some of the dumbest political leaders........apparently.


----------



## gibor365

And Ontario has masks and everything, very few cases and THE ONLY jurisdiction in North America that doesn’t allow indoor dining.... however, casinos and erotic massage salons are opened


----------



## gibor365

Ontario is the only place in North America where indoor dining isn't allowed


Ontario is now the only place in North America where indoor dining still isn't allowed because of COVID-19.




toronto.ctvnews.ca





Ford is destroying not only Ontario, but also PC Party! All my family and friends voted for him last elections, NO ONE I know is going to vote for his party again. It’s going to be disaster similar to Liberals last elections


----------



## Spudd

gibor365 said:


> And Ontario has masks and everything, very few cases and THE ONLY jurisdiction in North America that doesn’t allow indoor dining.... however, casinos and erotic massage salons are opened


Why do you think casinos are open? They are closed until we reach step 3. 








COVID-19 public health measures and advice


Learn about the latest information on public health measures, including masking and mask use.




www.ontario.ca





Erotic massage parlours are illegal in Canada so I don't think there are any guidelines that apply to them, LOL. 




__





Questions and Answers - Prostitution Criminal Law Reform: Bill C-36, the Protection of Communities and Exploited Persons Act


Department of Justice Canada's Internet site




www.justice.gc.ca


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> And Ontario has masks and everything, very few cases and THE ONLY jurisdiction in North America that doesn’t allow indoor dining.... however, casinos and erotic massage salons are opened


Casinos are closed


----------



## gibor365

Spudd said:


> Why do you think casinos are open? They are closed until we reach step 3.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 public health measures and advice
> 
> 
> Learn about the latest information on public health measures, including masking and mask use.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ontario.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Erotic massage parlours are illegal in Canada so I don't think there are any guidelines that apply to them, LOL.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Questions and Answers - Prostitution Criminal Law Reform: Bill C-36, the Protection of Communities and Exploited Persons Act
> 
> 
> Department of Justice Canada's Internet site
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.justice.gc.ca


I’ve heard it on radio. They were talking about outdoor casinos ... just checked and *Woodbine Mohawk Park is open.

You are absolutely wrong about Erotic massage parlours lol . They exist absolutely officially and there are plenty of them 
For example, one below reopened June 30





Toronto Massage | Erotic & Sensual Nude Body Massages | Allure


At Allure, our Massages are sensual, nude, & erotic. We have many massage options & the hottest girls of any massage parlour in Toronto. Visit Allure today.




www.alluremassage.ca




*


----------



## sags

Sure.......but you have to lay naked in the parking lot and the "hottest girls of any massage parlour in Toronto" are wearing full hazmat spacesuits.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Sure.......but you have to lay naked in the parking lot and the "hottest girls of any massage parlour in Toronto" are wearing full hazmat spacesuits.


I don’t get what you are talking about , but probably you have a lot of experience with erotic massage parlours LOL...
In any case, they are open , but kids cannot play organize sport! This province is so screwed!


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> I don’t get what you are talking about , but probably you have a lot of experience with erotic massage parlours LOL...
> In any case, they are open , but kids cannot play organize sport! This province is so screwed!


i Have family members playing both organized hockey and baseball.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> I don’t get what you are talking about , *but probably you have a lot of experience with erotic massage parlours LOL...*
> In any case, they are open , but kids cannot play organize sport! This province is so screwed!


 ... talk about who went looking for one in post #5240:



> *You are absolutely wrong about Erotic massage parlours lol . They exist absolutely officially and there are plenty of them*
> _*For example, one below reopened June 30*_
> *Toronto Massage | Erotic & Sensual Nude Body Massages | Allure
> At Allure, our Massages are sensual, nude, & erotic. We have many massage options & the hottest girls of any massage parlour in Toronto. Visit Allure today.
> www.alluremassage.ca*


 .... I wonder what happens if the wife sees his posts here. A case of liar liar with pants going on fire.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... talk about who went looking for one in post #5240:
> 
> .... I wonder what happens if the wife sees his posts here. A case of liar liar with pants going on fire.


Hasn't it occurred to you that if someone claimed they weren't open, then the poster simply did a google search to find one that is open to prove he was right?


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Hasn't it occurred to you that if someone claimed they weren't open, then the poster simply did a google search to find one that is open to prove he was right?


 ... has it occurred to you that the same poster said "casinos (except for outdoor Mohawk whatever casino)" were opened and was then proven wrong? And that he has a track record of being in-credible?

And same poster said kids can't play organized sport and again, proven wrong.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... has it occurred to you that the same poster said "casinos (except for outdoor Mohawk whatever casino) were opened and was then proven wrong? And that he has a track record of being in-credible?


Are people no longer capable of discussing the idea, post itself, verifying truth, rather than focus on a person?
Who cares what the history of someone is?
His response was about massage parlors existing an being open. The post served to prove that fact.

Based on the proof of that fact you accuse a poster of being a poor husband and a liar? 
No wonder debate is dead in 21st century.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> *Are people no longer capable of discussing the idea, post itself, verifying truth, rather than focus on a person?*
> Who cares what the history of someone is?
> His response was about massage parlors existing an being open. The post served to prove that fact.
> 
> Based on the proof of that fact you accuse a poster of being a poor husband and a liar?
> No wonder debate is dead in 21st century.


 ... you should be asking the poster exactly that question first with his response post #5242 to sags.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... you should be asking the poster exactly that question first with his response post #5242 to sags.


I am. The first sentence was not cool.
Neither was your message. 
Blaming someone of lying and being a poor husband for proving erotic massage parlors are open while other restrictions are in place.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I never said he was a "poor" husband (ie mistreat his wife) so don't put words in my mouth. I merely wondered what his dear "executive" wife (whom he worships if I'm not mistaken) would think of those posts of his here. Very classy?


----------



## gibor365

Province's rules for outdoor team sports 'illogical,' must be changed: Brampton mayor


Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown says restrictions surrounding outdoor sports are “illogical” and is urging the province to amend the rules to allow children to play team sports as soon as possible.




www.cp24.com






> Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown says restrictions surrounding outdoor sports are “illogical” and is urging the province to amend the rules to allow children to play team sports as soon as possible.
> 
> “Kids sports have been shut down for a long time and there is a safe way to allow kids sports again,” Brown said during a news conference on Wednesday afternoon.
> 
> “I think it's important for children's mental health I think it's important for their physical health.”
> *While outdoor team sports and leagues are permitted in Step 2 of the reopening plan, which Ontario officially entered today, they must be “modified to avoid personal contact.”*
> 
> “Our summer playing season is short and I just want to say, the rules under Stage 2 for minor sports are illogical,” Brown said.
> 
> “*The notion that you can't be within nine feet of another player, how do you have a kids’ soccer game when they have to be nine feet apart? It means you'd be blowing the whistle literally every 10 seconds to shut down play*. It puts an unfair liability on the organizers.”
> 
> It should be noted that the province does not require people playing team sports outdoors to maintain nine feet of distance but that distancing restriction is in place for outdoor fitness and exercise classes.
> 
> Brown added that the medical advice supports easing restrictions for children to play sports.
> 
> “I've listened to all the medical advice, I've listened to the science and if it is outdoors, it is safe. If it's outdoors, it's low risk,” he added.
> 
> “Our sporting organizations are ready. They've all submitted safe restart plans to how they can get their leagues running properly in a safe manner.”
> 
> Brown also said indoor swimming pools should be open in Step 2 of the reopening plan. Currently only outdoor pools are permitted to open in the province.
> 
> *“I look at the data according to the World Health Organization, the COVID-19 virus does not transmit through water while swimming,” he told reporters.*
> 
> “Drowning prevention, this is a life necessity teaching children how to swim, and there are only so many outdoor bodies of water that are that are available. It's also an equity issue. There's a lot of people that don't have access to a private pool.”
> 
> He said Brampton would be able to open these facilities “immediately” if given the green light by the Ford government.
> 
> “Our recreation department would be ready to pivot immediately,” he said. “We could have our recreation facilities open tomorrow if given permission.”


What a craziness?! Playing soccer when* players "have to be nine feet apart"?! Really?! Only morons can introduce such rules LOL*

Also, recreational hockey leagues (where i used to play) still shutdown. (even though Maple Leafs played whole season!!! Indoor recreational volleyball league (where me and my wife are playing) is shutdown. Russian saunas (banjas) aren't allowed to open.

However, no problem for government to open Woodbine Rexdale and Woodbine Mohawk race tracks and all erotic massage parlors from June 30! 
Gyms are also closed, but Blue Lagoon offers erotic massage in Hot tub . This is just insane!

*Truly, this is Alice in Wonderland!*


----------



## MrBlackhill

(Today is the day we'll reach the psychological number of 4,000,000 deaths)


----------



## Spudd

Just because exotic massage parlours exist, doesn't make them legal. When I googled "is erotic massage legal in ontario" I got a bunch of news articles saying that the cops were trying to crack down on them. 

And if you're running an illegal operation to begin with, are you really going to follow any kind of covid regulations??


----------



## gibor365

Spudd said:


> Just because exotic massage parlours exist, doesn't make them legal. When I googled "is erotic massage legal in ontario" I got a bunch of news articles saying that the cops were trying to crack down on them.
> 
> And if you're running an illegal operation to begin with, are you really going to follow any kind of covid regulations??


Obviously! They followed all regulations and reopened only June 30 (probably same time as barber shops)... and how they are illegal if there tons of them for decades, just do google search


----------



## Synergy

gibor365 said:


> Province's rules for outdoor team sports 'illogical,' must be changed: Brampton mayor
> 
> 
> Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown says restrictions surrounding outdoor sports are “illogical” and is urging the province to amend the rules to allow children to play team sports as soon as possible.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cp24.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What a craziness?! Playing soccer when* players "have to be nine feet apart"?! Really?! Only morons can introduce such rules LOL*
> 
> Also, recreational hockey leagues (where i used to play) still shutdown. (even though Maple Leafs played whole season!!! Indoor recreational volleyball league (where me and my wife are playing) is shutdown. Russian saunas (banjas) aren't allowed to open.
> 
> However, no problem for government to open Woodbine Rexdale and Woodbine Mohawk race tracks and all erotic massage parlors from June 30!
> Gyms are also closed, but Blue Lagoon offers erotic massage in Hot tub . This is just insane!
> 
> *Truly, this is Alice in Wonderland!*


I learn something new every day. Blue Lagoon! I didn't even know this stuff was going on out in the open. I had to google what a "reverse" is.... ;o)


----------



## gibor365

Synergy said:


> I learn something new every day. Blue Lagoon! I didn't even know this stuff was going on out in the open. I had to google what a "reverse" is.... ;o)


Those are priorities of our provincial government  , Erotic massages in hot tub and Woodbine races venues* are fine*, gyms, indoor dining, SPAs (non-erotic , organized sport etc *are banned!
The only jurisdiction in North America where indoor dining in banned for at least end of July! It's so sad that we live in most retarded place in North America *


----------



## gibor365

The most we are missing in GTA during lockdowns is Russian Sauna




__





Steamul Sauna, Mississauga


Mississauga Eastern European Sauna, Eastern European Sauna Benefits, Sauna, GTA




steamulsauna.ca




We used to go there once per week and now Ford government closed it for 1.5 year! 
As per researchers, temperature 65C and above kills Covid virus in 3 minutes....At Steamul, temperature in sauna usually 120C and above! So, why to ban it for fully vaccinated people!


----------



## OptsyEagle

gibor365 said:


> The most we are missing in GTA during lockdowns is Russian Sauna
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Steamul Sauna, Mississauga
> 
> 
> Mississauga Eastern European Sauna, Eastern European Sauna Benefits, Sauna, GTA
> 
> 
> 
> 
> steamulsauna.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We used to go there once per week and now Ford government closed it for 1.5 year!
> As per researchers, temperature 65C and above kills Covid virus in 3 minutes....At Steamul, temperature in sauna usually 120C and above! So, why to ban it for fully vaccinated people!


Gibor. Maybe you should take one of those 120C sauna's and report back to us on whether covid-19 is the biggest danger you find in there. I agree. The virus is definitely not going to be the biggest problem you will have on your mind at that temperature. You will be so dead, so quickly. lol


----------



## gibor365

OptsyEagle said:


> Gibor. Maybe you should take one of those 120C sauna's and report back to us on whether covid-19 is the biggest danger you find in there. I agree. The virus is definitely not going to be the biggest problem you will have on your mind at that temperature. You will be so dead, so quickly. lol


As I said, we were attending this Russian banaj for long time on weekly basis. It has a lot of benefits for your health




__





Redirect Notice






www.google.ca


----------



## OptsyEagle

gibor365 said:


> As I said, we were attending this Russian banaj for long time on weekly basis. It has a lot of benefits for your health
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Redirect Notice
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.ca


No you said a sauna is set to 120C. That temperature would severely burn any human who might enter it and kill them soon thereafter if they did not exit their human tissue from that cooking environment. I imagine you meant 120F but that temperature does not sterilize virus.

So your post was simply misleading due to the error.


----------



## Beaver101

^ No, he's always right as with the followers with the usual full of air, steam, bs, <use your imagination and fill-in-the-blank here>, et al.


----------



## Spudd

OptsyEagle said:


> No you said a sauna is set to 120C. That temperature would severely burn any human who might enter it and kill them soon thereafter if they did not exit their human tissue from that cooking environment. I imagine you meant 120F but that temperature does not sterilize virus.
> 
> So your post was simply misleading due to the error.


Actually he is probably correct. I don't fully understand how you can be in temperatures that would boil water and be fine, but you can. I've never been in a 120 degree sauna but I have been in 95 degrees many times and can handle that for about 15 minutes before I have to come out. 








Who, What, Why: How hot can a sauna safely get?


After a man died in 110C heat at the World Sauna Championships, the Magazine asks how hot is too hot.



www.bbc.com


----------



## sags

A new variant has appeared and is labeled a variant of interest now.

The Lamba variant is from Peru and is being studied to find out how it rates against the Delta and others.

It is spreading rapidly in South America and accounts for most new infections.









Lambda: What we know about the latest COVID variant flagged by the WHO


It is still unclear how transmisable or dangerous the Lambda coronavirus variant is, with studies underway.




www.euronews.com


----------



## OptsyEagle

Spudd said:


> Actually he is probably correct. I don't fully understand how you can be in temperatures that would boil water and be fine, but you can. I've never been in a 120 degree sauna but I have been in 95 degrees many times and can handle that for about 15 minutes before I have to come out.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Who, What, Why: How hot can a sauna safely get?
> 
> 
> After a man died in 110C heat at the World Sauna Championships, the Magazine asks how hot is too hot.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


I doubt the average sauna is being set to 10 degrees above the record setting for some nutcase adventurer. I know I am not going into a room at 120C. Water boils at 100C. Perhaps the thermal mass of the body can keep that from happening for a short period of time but eventually the moisture in one's arm will boil. Have you ever had boiling water on your skin before? I won't go into what happens to the body temperature of a species that prefers to be at 36C and gets very annoyed at being move above or below that by even a degree or two.


----------



## Spudd

OptsyEagle said:


> I doubt the average sauna is being set to 10 degrees above the record setting for some nutcase adventurer. I know I am not going into a room at 120C. Water boils at 100C. Perhaps the thermal mass of the body can keep that from happening for a short period of time but eventually the moisture in one's arm will boil. Have you ever had boiling water on your skin before? I won't go into what happens to the body temperature of a species that prefers to be at 36C and gets very annoyed at being move above or below that by even a degree or two.


In that article it says this can be done. I fully agree it seems very strange but having experienced 95 degrees I can imagine one can go hotter. 



> Organisers insisted afterwards that it was not unusual to have such high temperatures in Finnish saunas.
> Most sauna users stick to temperatures of around 80C for periods of five to six minutes, according to Finnish Sauna Society chief executive Kristian Miettinen.
> 
> However, a self-confessed "sauna freak", he usually heats the room to 100C, while others regularly prefer short three to four-minute bursts at 130 to 140C.


Not that this is really relevant to anything, haha.


----------



## gibor365

Spudd said:


> In that article it says this can be done. I fully agree it seems very strange but having experienced 95 degrees I can imagine one can go hotter.
> 
> 
> 
> Not that this is really relevant to anything, haha.


When you look at temperature, it can seem strange.... but trust me, if you attended 95C sauna , you would be fine with close to 120C for short period of time and after this you are jumping into cold plunge .... amazing relaxation feeling... and after this cold draft European beer (they have Russian restaurant on site).
Steamul in Mississauga has 5-6 saunas (include steam room where temperatures obviously much much lower) with different temps .... the hottest one around 120C. And people not only just sitting there , but using special whisks. Obviously, if you have never been to banjas , you shouldn't go to the hottest one  You also should follow some rules









The ultimate banya manual: Step by step guide on how to steam the Russian way


Chop wood, heat the banya, be a man and take a birch broom hit. We have everything you need to know when enjoying the legendary banya.




www.rbth.com





btw, maybe only half of visitors there are Russians/Ukrainians... there are also many Canadians ... actually this place was recommended for me long time ago by my Canadian co-worker girl


----------



## bgc_fan

Not surprising, but delta is starting to spread pretty well in the US states that have low vaccination rates. 









Rates of new Covid-19 cases are almost 3 times higher in states with low vaccination rates, new data shows


After months of progress in the fight against Covid-19, cases are rising again as the highly contagious Delta variant spreads across the US.




edition.cnn.com





Looks like Canada has surpassed the US on total doses of vaccine administered. Catching up to the UK now.


----------



## gibor365

bgc_fan said:


> Not surprising, but delta is starting to spread pretty well in the US states that have low vaccination rates.


Delta is spreading pretty well in Israel with the highest vaccination rate in the World.


----------



## sags

Wasn't Israel part of a test run for the vaccine ? Maybe the vaccine they got early wasn't the final product.


----------



## Bananatron

Ontario is god damn ridiculous with their restrictions. Feels good to be the Florida of Canada here in alberta, and our orange neighbors to the left also removed the mask mandate on July 1.

You guys will eventually catch on, watch out for that delta variant though.


----------



## james4beach

Bananatron said:


> Ontario is god damn ridiculous with their restrictions. Feels good to be the Florida of Canada here in alberta,


Alberta had the crap kicked out of it due to being way too relaxed about Covid in the previous months, and not restricting things enough.

There has been months of mismanagement of your situation, and the population has paid the price. There is nothing to be proud of.

Sad that someone would actually _feel good_ about Alberta's failure to protect its population and healthcare workers. Hopefully the province will be smarter when the covid infection numbers start going up again.


----------



## Bananatron

james4beach said:


> Alberta had the crap kicked out of it due to being way too relaxed about Covid in the previous months, and not restricting things enough.
> 
> There has been months of mismanagement of your situation, and the population has paid the price. There is nothing to be proud of.
> 
> Sad that someone would actually _feel good_ about Alberta's failure to protect its population and healthcare workers. Hopefully the province will be smarter when the covid infection numbers start going up again.


Alberta had stricter restrictions than bc did all winter. The biggest mistake the government made was waiting too long to implement restrictions before the third wave. 

I'm just glad we're not subjected to some of the stupidity other provinces have. Outlawing golf and children's soccer. You should be thankful the local ndp ruled with common sense, as far as I know restaurants were mostly open through the pandemic over there. 

And the masks, lol the masks. I wonder how long everyone is going to keep up the charade, 2 years from now it's not going to look all that different than it is today as far as vaccinations go, do people think they'll wear them indefinitely? One or two shots of vaccine isn't enough protection, I need my old navy mask too.

If cases pick up in the fall to the point that the hospitals are overwhelmed I imagine restrictions would be reinstated. The chances of that happening with 75%+ vaccinated are slim.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Alberta had the crap kicked out of it due to being way too relaxed about Covid in the previous months, and not restricting things enough.
> 
> There has been months of mismanagement of your situation, and the population has paid the price. There is nothing to be proud of.
> 
> Sad that someone would actually _feel good_ about Alberta's failure to protect its population and healthcare workers. Hopefully the province will be smarter when the covid infection numbers start going up again.


Better to be like AB, than fir retarded ON, the only jurisdiction in North America where indoor dining (and practically everything) is banned.... probably for good.
covid infection numbers will start going up again regardless of lockdowns or vaccinations! China created pretty damn good "product":. I bet that before reopening, ON is going back to full lockdown


----------



## james4beach

Bananatron said:


> And the masks, lol the masks. I wonder how long everyone is going to keep up the charade


You should learn to wear and get used to the mask. My guess is that you're going to be wearing them a lot this winter.

Even Israel has brought back mandatory masks.

They are are a simple, low-tech protection measure which helps reduce the spread with very _minor_ inconvenience. When covid numbers increase in the fall/winter, masks will be an important part of keeping the numbers and hospital cases under control.


----------



## Bananatron

james4beach said:


> You should learn to wear and get used to the mask. My guess is that you're going to be wearing them a lot this winter.
> 
> Even Israel has brought back mandatory masks.
> 
> They are are a simple, low-tech protection measure which helps reduce the spread with very _minor_ inconvenience. When covid numbers increase in the fall/winter, masks will be an important part of keeping the numbers and hospital cases under control.


As a fully vaccinated person, the only way I'm wearing a mask is if it's mandated by law. 

The vaccines work - masks are unnecessary.

Israel also had an outdoor mask mandate. Dumb, dumb, dumb.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> You should learn to wear and get used to the mask. My guess is that you're going to be wearing them a lot this winter.
> 
> *Even Israel has brought back mandatory masks.*
> 
> They are are a simple, low-tech protection measure which helps reduce the spread with very _minor_ inconvenience. When covid numbers increase in the fall/winter, masks will be an important part of keeping the numbers and hospital cases under control.


I liked the part about "*Even Israel " * LOL. Why "even"?! The interesting fact, that Israel went back to masks in indoors , 10 days after request to remove masks was removed. Do you really believe that those 10 days contributed to raise of daily cases from 10 to 500?! I doubt it! Very soon we also going to see sharp rise in daily cases despite masks, lockdowns (ON only) and huge vaccination rates


----------



## Spudd

gibor365 said:


> I liked the part about "*Even Israel " * LOL. Why "even"?! The interesting fact, that Israel went back to masks in indoors , 10 days after request to remove masks was removed. Do you really believe that those 10 days contributed to raise of daily cases from 10 to 500?! I doubt it! Very soon we also going to see sharp rise in daily cases despite masks, lockdowns (ON only) and huge vaccination rates


I think "even" because of their high vaccination rate. Despite that they still brought back the mask mandate.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> You should learn to wear and get used to the mask. My guess is that you're going to be wearing them a lot this winter.
> 
> Even Israel has brought back mandatory masks.
> 
> They are are a simple, low-tech protection measure which helps reduce the spread with very _minor_ inconvenience. When covid numbers increase in the fall/winter, masks will be an important part of keeping the numbers and hospital cases under control.


 ... gibor already stated that he will only "suffer" from wearing a mask only for the trip to the Carribeans. Still LMAO. I think we've been through this round multiple times trying to convince some "grown ups" here to wear a mask of which they perceive as a muzzle.


----------



## sags

Some gym opened up in Toronto and they immediately had almost 200 infections. They are mostly the new Delta variant.

Ontario could open up everything, but it wouldn't be long before the businesses had to close themselves anyways due to infection spread.

Once the word gets out on social media that a gym, restaurant or store had an outbreak......people avoid the business.

I heard an expert doctor say last night that the Delta is 10 times more infectious and just passing someone in a mall is spreading the virus.

He also said the symptoms are worse and more people are requiring hospitalization, especially in the younger age groups.

Many people are suffering from "long hauler" symptoms after infection. As the doctor said.......people don't have to die to have really bad problems.


----------



## sags

Returning to normal will be determined by the virus.

It is the number of hospitalizations and deaths that are determined somewhat by government policies on restrictions and lockdowns.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Look guys. I don't think anyone embraced the protective benefits of masks more then I did. That was when the virus was less understood and we had no exposure to it reducing our immune protection.

With that said, everyone of us will need to determine when we are going to get on with our lives. Waiting for more information on the delta variant or whether or not they will invent a booster shot or more information out of Israel is really just a procrastination activity, IMO. That is because no matter how much info you get, it will never prove to you that there is no more covid risk out there.

Sure, vaccination does not create complete immunity. What it does do is create a really kick @ss immune system. In the US less then 1% of the deaths are from vaccinated people. When you factor that into the fact that less then 1% of infections resulted in death in the 1st place and then factor in the very little chance of even being infected, you have to start to believe that the risk of Covid-19 starts to fall wayyyy below other more dangerous activities, once you have been fully vaccinated. Things like driving. Flying. Kayaking. Camping in the woods. Walking home at night. We are not immune to the dangers those activities produce either, but most of us are more then willing to take on the very low risks they present to enjoy our lives.

In my opinion, we all need to decide WHEN we are going to go on with our lives. IMO, if you do not have any co-morbidities, are not old and frail or seriously overweight, then that day should be 14 days after you received your 2nd dose of vaccine. That is the day you are safe as you ever will be to go on with your life like this pandemic never happened.

That is my opinion. I imagine there will be decent with it, but most decent is simply more procrastination caused by the fear of the unknown. The fear of the unknown will be with you for the rest of your life. The only difference is will you be living your life or watching it go by.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Don't forget it's their right (make that moral too) to attend these venues. So be it.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> ...
> 
> In my opinion, we all need to decide WHEN we are going to go on with our lives. IMO, if you do not have any co-morbidities, are not old and frail or seriously overweight, then that day should be 14 days after you received your 2nd dose of vaccine. That is the day you are safe as you ever will be to go on with your life like this pandemic never happened.
> 
> That is my opinion. I imagine there will be *decent *with it, but most decent is simply more procrastination caused by the fear of the unknown. The fear of the unknown will be with you for the rest of your life. *The only difference is will you be living your life or watching it go by.*


 ...do you mean "descend" by decent? And I don't agree with your last sentence to be one or the other despite trying to be a go-inbetweener.


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> I heard an expert doctor say last night that the Delta is 10 times more infectious and just passing someone in a mall is spreading the virus.


Using some critical thinking here, do you honestly believe this? We've had malls open in Edmonton even during the most strict phase of restrictions.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ...do you mean "descend" by decent? And I don't agree with your last sentence to be one or the other despite trying to be a go-inbetweener.


I think he means "dissent"


----------



## OptsyEagle

Bananatron said:


> I think he means "dissent"


Yeah. Too bad spell checking only kicks in for wrong spelling and not also wrong meaning. Anyway, I think it was fairly obvious what was meant.


----------



## Bananatron

My biggest beef with the masks is they represent an outlook on this pandemic that don't really have an endpoint in mind. This 18 months was not normal, and was extremely taxing on most people, mentally, financially and even physically. Most normal people want to put it behind us. 

So we stood in line and took needles in our arms that contained vaccines that show no proof that they are not extremely protective against any and all variants of this virus. That marks the end of the pandemic for most of us. 

But there are some of us that insist, despite the vaccines, that it's not over. We still need to wear masks for reasons, we still can't gather, we still can't have events for reasons. 

If we can't get back to normal with mass vaccinations and low case counts, when can we ever expect to get back to normal? What is this groups end game here?


----------



## Bananatron

OptsyEagle said:


> Yeah. Too bad spell checking only kicks in for wrong spelling and not also wrong meaning. Anyway, I think it was fairly obvious what was meant.


Yes I thought the correction was humorous


----------



## KaeJS

Bananatron said:


> But there are some of us that insist, despite the vaccines, that it's not over. We still need to wear masks for reasons, we still can't gather, we still can't have events for reasons.
> 
> If we can't get back to normal with mass vaccinations and low case counts, when can we ever expect to get back to normal? What is this groups end game here?


We never should have even got to this point.

Personally... I think we need some riots and some law breaking. I would welcome it.

This is completely out of hand. It has been out of hand for a while. I am actually so surprised there hasn't been more of a revolt.


----------



## Bananatron

KaeJS said:


> We never should have even got to this point.
> 
> Personally... I think we need some riots and some law breaking. I would welcome it.
> 
> This is completely out of hand. It has been out of hand for a while. I am actually so surprised there hasn't been more of a revolt.


We all, for the most part, accepted waiting for a vaccine as an end point. Now that we've passed that milestone, it's time to return to normal like we did in alberta. 

For those of you that think I'm selfish, take your masks, roll them in a ball, and stick them wherever I don't have to see them or hear about them.


----------



## 5Lgreenback

KaeJS said:


> We never should have even got to this point.
> 
> Personally... I think we need some riots and some law breaking. I would welcome it.
> 
> This is completely out of hand. It has been out of hand for a while. I am actually so surprised there hasn't been more of a revolt.



Riots/ protests are happening in UK, but the mainstream media is trying to hide them or create a false narrative for the reason for the protests, if they even mention them at all.

The US certainly has many pockets of revolt, and some states are getting legal battles going for numerous crimes in regards to the handling of this pandemic.

But up here in Canada our politeness and unquestioning respect for authority is being used against us.


----------



## sags

Unfortunately, the virus doesn't appear to be very interested in your unhappiness with the interruption to your life that it has caused.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Reality that most of us are accepting. Oh, here comes the mavericks' wailings. I would like to see the revolts ... try that over at Queen's Park and see what Ford has to say: "yahoos!"


----------



## Bananatron

Ah yes fellas, it's the virus that's dictating idiotic policies.


----------



## KaeJS

^ my thoughts exactly.

I honestly feel like a complete outsider. I can't understand what is even going on. It's beyond all comprehension. It's honestly not good for my mental state.


----------



## Beaver101

Would this help? For Ontarians.

Exact details of Ontario's Step 3 of reopening still being worked out: Elliott



> The Canadian Press
> Published Wednesday, July 7, 2021 1:12PM EDT
> TORONTO -- Ontario's health minister says exact details of the public health restrictions that will take effect under the next stage of the province's reopening plan are in the works.
> 
> Restrictions on businesses and gatherings are due to roll back further in two weeks but the fine print on capacity limits and masking rules have yet to be spelled out.
> 
> Christine Elliott says the province is actively working on defining those rules and businesses will have advance notice.
> 
> Gyms, indoor dining and indoor events are permitted under that stage of the three-step plan.
> Mayors from the largest municipalities in the Toronto and Hamilton areas called for clear guidance this week so that businesses and organizations can plan.
> 
> *The province has reached its COVID-19 vaccination target for entering Step 3 but Elliott says Ontario needs to take a cautious approach to opening further due to the highly transmissible Delta variant that has caused virus resurgences around the world.*


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> We all, for the most part, accepted waiting for a vaccine as an end point. Now that we've passed that milestone, it's time to return to normal like we did in alberta.
> 
> For those of you that think I'm selfish, take your masks, roll them in a ball, and stick them wherever I don't have to see them or hear about them.


 ... why? It's your choice to wear the masks or not. It's not like you'll be hauled off to jail for not wearing one although you most likely unable to enter a mall without one on at this point. Plus don't criticize (e.g. telling them to stick their masks like where? up yours or theirs? when it's already on their face) those who believe the pandemic ain't over until it's declared officially over.


----------



## 5Lgreenback

KaeJS said:


> ^ my thoughts exactly.
> 
> I honestly feel like a complete outsider. I can't understand what is even going on. It's beyond all comprehension. It's honestly not good for my mental state.


You're not alone, and slowly but surely more people are starting to realize that the narrative we've been told for the past 17 months just doesn't add up.


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... why? It's your choice to wear the masks or not. It's not like you'll be hauled off to jail for not wearing one although you most likely unable to enter a mall without one on at this point. Plus don't criticize (e.g. telling them to stick their masks like where? up yours or theirs? when it's already on their face) those who believe the pandemic ain't over until it's declared officially over.


If you read the context of the conversation I'm not telling mask wearers to stick it. I really don't care if people wear masks indefinitely, I will even go as far to go out of my way to give them extra space in public out of respect. If they are fully vaccinated I think it's pretty silly but none of my business. 


Who I'm telling to stick it, are the sanctimonious people who think it's ok to shame me for being overly excited about the removal of restrictions, implying that I don't care about my fellow man. 

A vaccinated population does not need social distancing, curfews or masks. Anyone who suggests that we do is fucking stupid.


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> If you read the context of the conversation I'm not telling mask wearers to stick it. I really don't care if people wear masks indefinitely, I will even go as far to go out of my way to give them extra space in public out of respect. * If they are fully vaccinated I think it's pretty silly but none of my business.*
> 
> 
> Who I'm telling to stick it, are the sanctimonious people who think it's ok to shame me for being overly excited about the removal of restrictions, implying that I don't care about my fellow man.
> 
> *A vaccinated population does not need social distancing, curfews or masks*. Anyone who suggests that we do is fucking stupid.


It's especially silly when some wearing masks outdoors, in regional parks etc.... I noticed that practically all people who wear masks outdoor are Chinese . Maybe they know something , we don't?! .

I agree that *A vaccinated population does not need social distancing, curfews or masks, *"even in Israel" with current spike in Covid cases, only 1 death was recorded in last 3 weeks (we don't know if death person was vaccinated). Looks like in vaccinated country with high vaccination rates, Covid is much less dangerous than flu


----------



## Bananatron

gibor365 said:


> It's especially silly when some wearing masks outdoors, in regional parks etc.... I noticed that practically all people who wear masks outdoor are Chinese . Maybe they know something , we don't?! .
> 
> I agree that *A vaccinated population does not need social distancing, curfews or masks, *"even in Israel" with current spike in Covid cases, only 1 death was recorded in last 3 weeks (we don't know if death person was vaccinated). Looks like in vaccinated country with high vaccination rates, Covid is much less dangerous than flu


It really appears that the media has a vested interest in keeping this going as long as possible. 

You would think that with the importance of vaccines that they would specify the outbreaks in the uk or Israel area among the unvaccinated populations, but it's always curiously left out, and we're left to deduce on our own.


----------



## sags

The Delta variant has been "breaking through" and infecting fully vaccinated people, including in Israel.

It will be a few weeks before the full extent of the symptoms and outcomes are known.


----------



## Bananatron

> The data, however, also shows that the vaccine is still highly effective against preventing serious symptoms and hospitalization. During May, that figure stood at 98.2%, and during June, it was 93%.


For a vaccinated population, it's the flu 2.0


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The Delta variant has been "breaking through" and infecting fully vaccinated people, including in Israel.
> 
> It will be a few weeks before the full extent of the symptoms and outcomes are known.


We already have the results of the vaccine vs the delta variant.

Listen, it will always be weeks away before you will know if you are really safe. When those weeks are up it will be weeks away from then before you know you if you are really safe. That will go on and on and on, because you will never know for sure that you will be really safe. That day or that information will never come.

We have enough information already and lets face it. We only had one solution for Covid-19. It was vaccination. Get your two shots and move on with your life...or don't. But if you are ever going to get the information you require to start living again, quick scaring the crap out of others about things that might happen but probably won't. Let them go on with their lives. There will be plenty of time to respond if a new problem comes about, so for now, let the worrying go.

At some point in time we all have to go on with our lives. These precautions were only meant to be temporary, but it does start to appear that many on these boards are working hard to keep them much longer then they are needed and I have no idea why. Fear of the unknown perhaps. The invisible monster. It is really hard for a logical person, like myself, to figure this out. These vaccines are working better then I could even dream of and yet I still see many who appear to want to go back to the way life was when they were just a pipe dream.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> If you read the context of the conversation I'm not telling mask wearers to stick it. I really don't care if people wear masks indefinitely, I will even go as far to go out of my way to give them extra space in public out of respect. If they are fully vaccinated I think it's pretty silly but none of my business.
> 
> 
> Who I'm telling to stick it, are the sanctimonious people who think it's ok to shame me for being overly excited about the removal of restrictions, implying that I don't care about my fellow man.
> 
> A vaccinated population does not need social distancing, curfews or masks.  *Anyone who suggests that we do is fucking stupid.*


 ... do you want to tell that to the mall/store owners, the public transit officials, the hospital safety officers, LTC homes administrators, the mayor, Ford/Elliot or how about the newly appointed chief medical officer, etc. - all in Ontario of course of what you think of them - the above bolded part.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> It's especially silly when some wearing masks outdoors, in regional parks etc.... I noticed that practically all people who wear masks outdoor are Chinese . Maybe they know something , we don't?! .


 ... and yet they live in your neighbourhood, Mississauga. Am I surprised you targeted them?



> I agree that *A vaccinated population does not need social distancing, curfews or masks, *"even in Israel" with current spike in Covid cases, only 1 death was recorded in last 3 weeks (we don't know if death person was vaccinated). Looks like in vaccinated country with high vaccination rates, Covid is much less dangerous than flu


 ... I can't imagine if that "1" deceased (only 1!!!!) was fully vaccinated, what's your next declaration will be? Move to Israel? Join the government?


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... do you want to tell that to the mall/store owners, the public transit officials, the hospital safety officers, LTC homes administrators, the mayor, Ford/Elliot or how about the newly appointed chief medical officer, etc. - all in Ontario of course of what you think of them - the above bolded part.


Not any further than saying it online. I really don't have a vested interest in doing so, nor do I really care that Ontario is filled with unnecessary restrictions.

Did you want someone to say something?


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> For a vaccinated population, it's the flu 2.0


 ... only if you massage this message long enough. How do you know that a person "fully vaccinated", only get flu-like symptoms when there are known cases that they die too, if they don't suffer from the long term effects? Pretty amazing to make that kind of statement when the vaccine makers don't even make that.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> Not any further than saying it online. I really don't have a vested interest in doing so, nor do I really care that Ontario is filled with unnecessary restrictions.
> 
> Did you want someone to say something?


 ... no need for someone to say something ... we got them all here on this forum.


----------



## gibor365

> At some point in time we all have to go on with our lives


I'm watching live right now semifinal EURO , England vs Denmark....there are 67K+ fans on Wembley! No one is wearing mask! Normal countries came back to normal life! However in Ontario we have up max to 25 people outdoor gather ! 
Truly, Canada is country of pussies and Ontario is province of super-pussies!


----------



## Beaver101

^ So when are you planning to move out of the country/land of pussies and super-pussies?


----------



## james4beach

Spudd said:


> I think "even" because of their high vaccination rate. Despite that they still brought back the mask mandate.


Yeah, let me spell this out because I guess it's not obvious to some people.

Israel has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, with the best vaccine. They are an example of your best case, vaccinated scenario.

And yet, covid infections are rising. It's still spreading, and masks are still required.

That's why @Bananatron and @gibor365 are likely going to be wearing masks this winter, in public places.



OptsyEagle said:


> In my opinion, we all need to decide WHEN we are going to go on with our lives.


In public health matters, like the spread of an infectious disease throughout the public, it's not entirely your call. We have to be concerned about the rights of workers (people working in all these stores) and we also have to be concerned with the loads on the hospitals.

It's not entirely your decision @OptsyEagle I'm sorry to say.

Perhaps you have put too much faith in the vaccines -- a mistake, IMO. The vaccines are *one layer* of protection. In a pandemic with a virus we don't understand, which is still spreading, more than one layer of protection is needed.

My suggestion is, get used to the idea of masks now. Then at least you will be pleasantly surprised if covid really is not spreading rapidly this winter. We don't yet have enough data to know how much danger a fully vaccinated population is facing. We'll have more data only in a few months.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Yeah, let me spell this out because I guess it's not obvious to some people.
> 
> Israel has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, with the best vaccine. They are an example of your best case, vaccinated scenario.
> 
> And yet, covid infections are rising. It's still spreading, and masks are still required.
> 
> That's why @Bananatron and @gibor365 are likely going to be wearing masks this winter, in public places.
> 
> 
> 
> In public health matters, like the spread of an infectious disease throughout the public, it's not entirely your call.
> 
> You can gibor can decide to take your own risks, sure. But if there is uncontrolled disease spread, then it's possible that masks may be required again in public settings, just as they are in Israel.


There are some medical conditions that person can be exempt from wearing masks in public places... I’m looking for exact list! Maybe will be able to find something


----------



## Bananatron

Beaver101 said:


> ... only if you massage this message long enough. How do you know that a person "fully vaccinated", only get flu-like symptoms when there are known cases that they die too, if they don't suffer from the long term effects? Pretty amazing to make that kind of statement when the vaccine makers don't even make that.


How do we know we don't get long term effects from the flu like symptoms some get from the vaccines?

It's the flu 2.0 for a vaccinated population. A very small percentage will get it on a given year, a percentage of that will get sick enough to be hospitalized, and a percentage of those will die. 

I would really, really like to know your solution for this. Wait till we have more information, then what? People will not live like this forever.


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> I'm watching live right now semifinal EURO , England vs Denmark....there are 67K+ fans on Wembley! No one is wearing mask!


Unbelievable stupidity


----------



## Bananatron

Data scientist Eran Segal of Israel's Weizmann Institute of Science said the country was unlikely to experience the high levels of hospitalizations seen earlier in the year since there were much fewer critically ill.


He said it was fine to "continue with life back to normal and without restrictions" while stepping up measures like vaccination outreach and ensuring testing for Israelis returning home from abroad.









Israel sees drop in Pfizer Covid vaccine protection against infections


The decline coincided with the spread of the delta variant and the end of social distancing restrictions in Israel.




www.google.com


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> There are some medical conditions that person can be exempt from wearing masks in public places... I’m looking for exact list! Maybe will be able to find something


A nation of people with your mindset (in Russia) are now facing rapid growth in covid. They have lost control.

Covid deaths in Russia are hitting new highs right now in the middle of SUMMER. Clearly this has a lot to do with the mentality of Russians ... people refusing to wear masks. Trying to skirt the rules, trying to go to packed soccer games and other stupid things I'm sure.

If you wonder what kind of logic the Russian population applies, just read posts from @gibor365 

Russia is a covid disaster, both due to the incompetent leadership of Putin, but perhaps more importantly, the dumb decisions of Russian citizens who really are clueless.









Russia marks record number of COVID-19 deaths for 5th day in a row - National | Globalnews.ca


Spooked by a new wave of infections that began last month, officials imposed an array of measures to compel or encourage people to get vaccinated.




globalnews.ca


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Unbelievable stupidity


... happening in Ontario!


----------



## gibor365

Btw, when flying you are allowed to remove mask while eating and drinking... I always drink and eat a lot while on the plane lol ...


----------



## james4beach

Bananatron said:


> Data scientist Eran Segal of Israel's Weizmann Institute of Science said the country was unlikely to experience the high levels of hospitalizations seen earlier in the year since there were much fewer critically ill.


I hope that's the outcome, and this would be good, but it's too early to tell.

This is why caution is needed until we know more about this. The problem is that the public behaviour changes dramatically when all restrictions are eased, which is happening in Canada right now. The conditions for spread are dramatically different today than a month or two ago.

So we really don't know how this will play out. It might turn out that everything in Canada will be fine, and perhaps there will be no uptick in hospital loads.

But it's too early to tell, which is why caution is needed. That is what intelligent people do: in an unknown situation, they proceed with caution until there is more clarity.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> A nation of people with your mindset (in Russia) are now facing rapid growth in covid. They have lost control.
> 
> Covid deaths in Russia are hitting new highs right now in the middle of SUMMER. Clearly this has a lot to do with the mentality of Russians ... people refusing to wear masks. Trying to skirt the rules, trying to go to packed soccer games and other stupid things I'm sure.
> 
> If you wonder what kind of logic the Russian population applies, just read posts from @gibor365
> 
> Russia is a covid disaster, both due to the incompetent leadership of Putin, but perhaps more importantly, the dumb decisions of Russian citizens who really are clueless.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia marks record number of COVID-19 deaths for 5th day in a row - National | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Spooked by a new wave of infections that began last month, officials imposed an array of measures to compel or encourage people to get vaccinated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


Yeah, sure, this is Putin’s fault lol . 
As I said, 67k+ now watching football game on Wembley ... They also show fans (not Russians 😁, but British and Danish!) . I didn’t see anybody wearing mask!


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> Yeah, sure, this is Putin’s fault lol .


Well if he can't run a country properly, yes Putin deserves some blame. Russia is a disaster of a country, which has let huge numbers of people die unnecessarily from COVID. Both Trump and Putin were two massive failures who did not protect their countries from harm, so yes, they deserve blame.

But the Russian people also deserve blame for being such idiots. They are now paying the price, with record high deaths.

It's sad though. I wish Russians would just get their vaccinations, and wear their damned masks. They don't have to die like this.


----------



## Beaver101

Bananatron said:


> How do we know we don't get long term effects from the flu like symptoms some get from the vaccines?


 ... what flu-like symptoms from the vaccines are you're referring to? Are blood clots, myocarditis, or ? symptoms of the flu?



> It's the flu 2.0 for a vaccinated population. A very small percentage will get it on a given year, a percentage of that will get sick enough to be hospitalized, and a percentage of those will die.


 ... no doubt the (seasonal) flu will be with us - possibly forever since Covid19 (mutated version) is an offset of the coronavirus that give us the annual flu. 



> I would really, really like to know your solution for this. Wait till we have more information, then what? People will not live like this forever.


 ... I have no solution for those who believe in "what" they want to believe. 

As far as I'm concerned (solution to myself and my loved ones), this Covid19 pandemic opened my eyes (more like brain) and heightened my awareness of the annual flu. One don't develop the flu on his/her own but get infected by others. I.e. I'll be wearing my mask, keeping my distance accordingly, apart from the hand washings, even after the pandemic is over. I don't need a repeat of the annual flu that I have been getting (at least twice) for years, except for the duration of the pandemic. Coincidence? I think not.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> As far as I'm concerned (solution to myself and my loved ones), this Covid19 pandemic opened my eyes (more like brain) and heightened my awareness of the annual flu. One don't develop the flu on his/her own but get infected by others. I.e. I'll be wearing my mask, keeping my distance accordingly, apart from the hand washings, even after the pandemic is over. I don't need a repeat of the annual flu that I have been getting (at least twice) for years, except for the duration of the pandemic. Coincidence? I think not.


Seriously, I can't believe all the grief over people wearing masks. People in Asian countries do it all the time if they feel sick, or if they feel that they are at risk because of the amount of people coughing during flu season. There's no reason to be that inconsiderate jerk, who doesn't wear a mask and goes out sick, while coughing all over the place in public places like malls and buses. I'm willing to bet when the mask mandates drop, these are the first people who stop wearing masks and they'll likely be the same people who didn't get vaccinated. But then wonder why only they get the flu or other respiratory disease.

Actually, it would be nice to keep up with some of the increased sanitary policies like disinfecting shopping carts, and not drop them because the risk of covid has dropped significantly.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Well if he can't run a country properly, yes Putin deserves some blame. Russia is a disaster of a country, which has let huge numbers of people die unnecessarily from COVID. Both Trump and Putin were two massive failures who did not protect their countries from harm, so yes, they deserve blame.
> 
> But the Russian people also deserve blame for being such idiots. They are now paying the price, with record high deaths.
> 
> It's sad though. I wish Russians would just get their vaccinations, and wear their damned masks. They don't have to die like this.


I'm telling that 67K+ British and Danish fans watching football game in London and you are replying with some Putin's nonsense...... Actually, right now when fans were shown again, I noticed 1 person wearing masks....probably Canadian LOL.

Regarding Putin... recently we attended huge Russian/Israeli/Ukrainian party... Among about 50 people only 10 (include us ) were vaccinated! Nothing to do with people or kind of vaccine offered.... Some nations (and many others except Russians) just have different mentality that Canadians....


----------



## gibor365

My biggest issue is not even wearing masks, but idiotic lockdown we have in Ontario !


----------



## Beaver101

^


> * bgc_fan *Seriously, I can't believe all the grief over people wearing masks. People in Asian countries do it all the time if they feel sick, or if they feel that they are at risk because of the amount of people coughing during flu season. There's no reason to be that inconsiderate jerk, who doesn't wear a mask and goes out sick, while coughing all over the place in public places like malls and buses. I'm willing to bet when the mask mandates drop, these are the first people who stop wearing masks and they'll likely be the same people who didn't get vaccinated. But then wonder why only they get the flu or other respiratory disease.


 ... I wholeheartedly agree with you above. But then you can't tell or control what others do. I can only do what I can/need to do.



> Actually, it would be nice to keep up with some of the increased sanitary policies like disinfecting shopping carts, and not drop them because the risk of covid has dropped significantly.


 ... that would be very nice but it's an added cost for the business. Let's see how long we (customers) get this "perk" for.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> My biggest issue is not even wearing masks, but idiotic lockdown we have in Ontario !


 ... nevertheless it's "still an issue" you're complaining about, no? 

The "idiotic lockdown" is moving towards Phase 3 for re-opening in Ontario. Do you not read the "local" news? I guess it's easier to do endless whinings here ...


----------



## Spudd

For that football game at Wembley, they required everyone to either be fully vaccinated or have a negative Covid test. 






Subscribe to read | Financial Times


News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




www.ft.com


----------



## Bananatron

Spudd said:


> For that football game at Wembley, they required everyone to either be fully vaccinated or have a negative Covid test.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com





james4beach said:


> Unbelievable stupidity


So, again, if fully vaccinated people can't gather and do things we used to do, when can we do them? 

What exactly is so dangerous about mass groups of vaccinated people being together?


----------



## sags

I posted about the Lambda variant only a few days ago and already it is in Canada.

This variant is moving fast among the population. It is affecting even those fully vaccinated. The virus is mutating to get around the vaccines.

This is not good news.

What the hell did the Wuhan lab release on the world ?


----------



## sags

James......

What some people don't seem able to grasp is our hospitals were over capacity at the best of times pre-pandemic, and there was "hallway medicine" practiced with people in closets.

The average wait time to see a doctor in the ER was 6 hours and 24 hours if you needed to be admitted. Every COVID patient is taking up a badly needed bed from someone else.

Covid also caused continual infections in the hospital which closed down entire floors and stopped all treatments and procedures. The doctors and nurses are worn out.

And yet some people want to remove restrictions. They are clueless.


----------



## KaeJS

What happened to our freedom?

If you are scared - wear a mask and stay home.

I shouldn't have to **** up my plans and change my life because some people are worried. That is not my issue. That's someone else's prerogative.

I want my freedom.
I want to make my own choices.
My body, my choice. Right?

The masks are dumb.
The vaccines are dumb.
The lockdowns are dumb.

The entire thing is a joke.

You all have no problem hopping in your car and trusting tons of other drivers to drive by you at 120+ kmh... But now you're all scared of "covid"? LOL. Give me a break.


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> My biggest issue is not even wearing masks, but idiotic lockdown we have in Ontario !


That's fair enough gibor. I agree, Ontario didn't need that kind of severity. They should have had easier to follow policies, and more consistent restriction at certain indoor things.

I don't like the way Ontario did it, so you are correct. It was bad policy.

Instead, they should have closed only the very high risk things (indoor restaurants bars, gyms) and also immediately shut down some businesses, such as factories, that had outbreaks. And closely monitor those.

Then they should have allowed most retail to operate normally, just with mask requirements, and also selective shutdowns with outbreaks. They did not have to close down everything like they did.

That was lazy policy.


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> Seriously, I can't believe all the grief over people wearing masks. People in Asian countries do it all the time if they feel sick, or if they feel that they are at risk because of the amount of people coughing during flu season. There's no reason to be that inconsiderate jerk, who doesn't wear a mask and goes out sick, while coughing all over the place in public places like malls and buses. I'm willing to bet when the mask mandates drop, these are the first people who stop wearing masks and they'll likely be the same people who didn't get vaccinated. But then wonder why only they get the flu or other respiratory disease.
> 
> Actually, it would be nice to keep up with some of the increased sanitary policies like disinfecting shopping carts, and not drop them because the risk of covid has dropped significantly.


The Asians have the right idea. And where I live, the Asian people seem to be the most diligent with their mask use. They are showing respect for their community and neighbours and I think it's wonderful.


----------



## damian13ster

KaeJS said:


> What happened to our freedom?
> 
> If you are scared - wear a mask and stay home.
> 
> I shouldn't have to **** up my plans and change my life because some people are worried. That is not my issue. That's someone else's prerogative.
> 
> I want my freedom.
> I want to make my own choices.
> My body, my choice. Right?
> 
> The masks are dumb.
> The vaccines are dumb.
> The lockdowns are dumb.
> 
> The entire thing is a joke.
> 
> You all have no problem hopping in your car and trusting tons of other drivers to drive by you at 120+ kmh... But now you're all scared of "covid"? LOL. Give me a break.


Well, do something about it if you feel so strongly about it. It took what, 3-4 people in Nova Scotia to mount an effective protest


----------



## gibor365

Spudd said:


> For that football game at Wembley, they required everyone to either be fully vaccinated or have a negative Covid test.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com


I have no problems with it! This is the major reason we got vaccines!


----------



## gibor365

Bananatron said:


> So, again, if fully vaccinated people can't gather and do things we used to do, when can we do them?
> 
> What exactly is so dangerous about mass groups of vaccinated people being together?


Exactly! And there is nothing, except vaccination we can do... so what, lockdown for good?!


----------



## gibor365

^ They did not have to close down everything like they did. 

Absolutely!


----------



## KaeJS

Nobody ever talks about the other impacts of the lockdowns and BS Rules.

Lots of people have lost their businesses, spouses and family life, and even their lives due to stress.

"Distress centres across the country are seeing surges in calls directly related to anxiety around COVID-19
and its related financial and social consequences. From February to March, Kids Help Phone saw an
increase in volume through their phone line of 170% and an increase of 114% to their text line.64 These
increases included conversations about isolation (up 48%), anxiety or stress (up 42%), and substance use
(up 34%). The Canada Suicide Prevention Service has also seen an increase in volume since the start of
the pandemic, with about 50% more interactions compared to the same time last year. They are seeing
more intense interactions as well and have had a 62% increase in active rescues (when responders call
emergency services due to an imminent risk of harm or a suicide in progress) — two trends that seem to
be accelerating.65 By comparison, in the U.S., SAMHSA’s Disaster Distress Helpline experienced an
increase of 338% this past March compared to February, an increase of 891% in call volume compared
to March 2019.
66 The greater need for crisis services will likely continue throughout the pandemic and in
the months that follow."

But hey, guys...

No big deal. Nothing to see here.
Let's just keep the lockdowns going. Why not? What else could possibly go wrong?


----------



## KaeJS

While all you people think you're high and mighty and feel good about yourselves for "doing the right thing" and "protecting your neighbours"... I hope you all take a step back and realize you are destroying people in other ways.

People are losing their livelihoods, families, loved ones, friends... They are losing their hope, their dreams. They are losing TIME. Valuable time.

The lockdowns need to stop. This is not good for anyone. Whoever believes that these lockdowns should continue is playing with themselves.

We need to open everything and stop all the rules right now.


----------



## Bananatron

KaeJS said:


> While all you people think you're high and mighty and feel good about yourselves for "doing the right thing" and "protecting your neighbours"... I hope you all take a step back and realize you are destroying people in other ways.
> 
> People are losing their livelihoods, families, loved ones, friends... They are losing their hope, their dreams. They are losing TIME. Valuable time.
> 
> The lockdowns need to stop. This is not good for anyone. Whoever believes that these lockdowns should continue is playing with themselves.
> 
> We need to open everything and stop all the rules right now.


The ignorance in wanting to prolong them in the interest of adding a factor of safety "so we can know for sure" is just so fucking tone deaf to what people have gone through.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> While all you people think you're high and mighty and feel good about yourselves for "doing the right thing" and "protecting your neighbours"... I hope you all take a step back and realize you are destroying people in other ways.
> 
> People are losing their livelihoods, families, loved ones, friends... *They are losing their hope, their dreams. They are losing TIME. Valuable time.*
> 
> The lockdowns need to stop. This is not good for anyone. Whoever believes that these lockdowns should continue is playing with themselves.
> 
> We need to open everything and stop all the rules right now.


Life is too short and not only us who has feeling that we lost 2 years of our life, but also our kids!


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> That's fair enough gibor. I agree, Ontario didn't need that kind of severity. They should have had easier to follow policies, and more consistent restriction at certain indoor things.
> 
> I don't like the way Ontario did it, so you are correct. It was bad policy.
> 
> Instead, they should have closed only the very high risk things (indoor restaurants bars, gyms) and a*lso immediately shut down some businesses, such as factories, that had outbreaks. And closely monitor those.*
> 
> Then they should have allowed most retail to operate normally, just with mask requirements, and also selective shutdowns with outbreaks. They did not have to close down everything like they did.
> 
> That was lazy policy.


I'm OK with "*immediately shut down some businesses, such as factories, that had outbreaks. And closely monitor those." , *it's also OK regarding restaurants and bars. 
Don't you thing that it's extremely dumb to allow erotic massage parlors and horse tracking to open, and ban indoor dining and recreation (like our volleyball league)?! imho, they should to introduce "vaccination pass" and give more opportunities t fully vaccinated people.... Thus government will also encourage mre people to get vaccinated


----------



## Beaver101

COVID-19 outbreak linked to Oakville gym operating under physical therapy exemption


> _Elena De Luigi, The Canadian Press Last Updated Wednesday, July 7, 2021 4:06PM EDT
> 
> An Ontario gym operating using a physical therapy exemption has been ordered to shut down after being linked to a COVID-19 outbreak that could force as many as 400 people to self-isolate.
> Halton Region Public Health said it is aware of 15 cases of the highly transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19 linked to the Muscle HQ gym in Oakville, Ont.
> 
> Gyms across Ontario cannot currently offer indoor services due to public health restrictions, but Muscle HQ had been operating by allowing members with doctors' notes that cite the need for physical therapy to train.
> 
> 
> “It is a great tragedy that there was an outbreak,” Muscle HQ co-owner Ali Siddiqui said in an emailed statement to The Canadian Press. “We take great pride in being able to provide a facility for the disabled population to perform their prescribed therapy, all while being in full compliance of regulations while doing so.”
> 
> Despite gyms being closed to the general public, Halton public health said facilities providing sports and recreational fitness activities for people with disabilities to receive physical therapy can be open under the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act. However, they are only allowed to operate if the person has a doctor's note and if their physical therapy is not available elsewhere.
> 
> Halton public health said it officially declared the outbreak on June 28 after the case count rose to more than five. It then notified of owners on Friday to a forced closure of their facility for 14 days due to the number of cases linked to the gym.
> 
> *Within 48 hours of the health unit's outbreak declaration, Siddiqui said “several cases” were identified. The health unit said there are more than 400 high-risk contacts who must quarantine for 14 days from their last exposure date, unless they are fully vaccinated.*_
> 
> *It said all members who were in the gym the previous week would be considered as a high-risk, close contact.*
> 
> _*The public health unit said it's worried about close contacts because they were indoors with “limited masking and lack of supervision” to make sure people followed physical distancing and capacity limits.*
> 
> Contact tracing at Muscle HQ is ongoing, and more cases outside the initial exposure period of June 21 to July 3 are being found.
> 
> “These gym members may also be at higher risk for COVID-19 complications given that each person would have been required to provide written instruction from a qualified regulated health professional regarding their physical or mental disability to allow them to use the gym,” the health unit said in a statement. “We are urging these individuals to isolate and get tested for their own well-being as well as for any other vulnerable people they may be living with.”
> 
> Siddiqui said in a video message posted to Facebook that the first case tested positive on June 25. Two other members received positive results the next day, forcing owners to shut down the gym for 72 hours the gym to allow for deep cleaning and fogging.
> 
> “We contacted public health immediately to notify them of the cases and to provide them with contact tracing information,” Siddiqui said. “A mass email was sent out to all club members as well on this day, letting them know of the potential exposure and to get tested.”
> 
> Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott told reporters at a press conference Wednesday morning that since the gym remained open during the pandemic, the Delta variant is now “circulating very widely” amongst those who use the facility.
> 
> She described the situation as a cautionary tale against reopening the province too quickly.
> “We want to avoid a fourth wave. We don't want to have to move back a step,” Elliott said. “We want to make sure that we are completely ready and able to move forward based on the expert advice that ½we're) receiving from our chief medical officer of health and all of the advisors from the various committees.”
> 
> *Jim Barry, Oakville's director of municipal enforcement services, said in an emailed statement that the town received “a number of complaints” about Muscle HQ and investigated them on multiple occasions, with the most recent being related to capacity limits on June 19.*
> 
> “At that time and during previous visits, the gym was in compliance with the provincial regulations under the Reopening Ontario Act,” Barry said.
> 
> So far, Siddiqui said he has not received a municipal fine and he is working with the health unit to determine a reopening date.
> 
> “We are confident that with guidance from public health, we will again be able to reopen with even more stringent policies in place to ensure that our members get the therapy they need, while also ensuring that our members and the community at large remain safe.”_


Imagine being "disabled" and getting Covid. Pretty amazing there is a potential 400 people that needs self-isolation now ... hopefully they were vaccinated.


----------



## Beaver101

Scientific director of Ontario’s science table says province not ready to enter Step 3, calls Delta variant ‘completely different beast’



> _Last Updated Wednesday, July 7, 2021 9:03PM EDT
> 
> *The scientific director of the Ontario Science Advisory Table says the province is “absolutely not” ready to move into the next step of the reopening plan due to the spread of the more transmissible Delta variant.
> 
> Dr. Peter Juni described the COVID-19 variant that first emerged in India as a “completely different beast.”*
> 
> "If you have uncontrolled growth with (the) Alpha (variant) after four weeks, we have roughly 6,000 cases. But after the Delta, you have around 60,000 cases. This shows you how careful we need to be," Juni told CP24 Wednesday evening.
> 
> 
> "What we now need is roughly 75 per cent of the eligible population fully vaccinated and we need to see how step two of the reopening works out. We only see that roughly after two and a half weeks after we started with step two. So, we need to wait now, be patient and not get ahead of ourselves. It's an absolute no-go to rush this."
> 
> When asked why Ontario's COVID-19 situation is different from other Canadian provinces that have fully reopened, Juni said it's because the Delta variant accounts for about 80 per cent of all new cases in the province.
> 
> "The only reason for what we're seeing right now is that we are much more connected to the U.K., therefore we have (the) Delta much earlier than the rest of the provinces, but they will struggle too at a certain time," he said.
> 
> Ontario is supposed to remain in Step 2 for at least another 14 days, meaning that a wide swath of indoor venues and businesses, such as gyms and movie theatres, will have to remain close until at least July 20._
> ...


 ... for Ontarians. At least this guy ain't from WHO or some selected podcast announcement.


----------



## sags

Yup.........that is what I have been posting.

The new Lambda variant is also spreading rapidly and scientists say it could further deteriorate the effectiveness of the vaccines.

People don't want to accept that it is the virus that dictates the restrictions, and the governments are only following the best advice from the experts.


----------



## 5Lgreenback

Zuby made a twitter thread that seems to be resonating with many people questioning what they are seeing around at the world today. I'd say he nailed it.

"@ZubyMusic
*20 Things I've Learned (Or Had Confirmed) About Humanity During The 'Pandemic' :

1/ *Most people would rather be in the majority, than be right.

*2/ *At least 20% of the population has strong authoritarian tendencies, which will emerge under the right conditions.

*3/* Fear of death is only rivalled by the fear of social disapproval. The latter could be stronger.

*4/ *Propaganda is just as effective in the modern day as it was 100 years ago. Access to limitless information has not made the average person any wiser.

*5/ *Anything and everything can and will be politicised by the media, government, and those who trust them.

*6/* Many politicians and large corporations will gladly sacrifice human lives if it is conducive to their political and financial aspirations.

*7/ *Most people believe the government acts in the best interests of the people. Even many who are vocal critics of the government.

*8/ *Once they have made up their mind, most people would rather to commit to being wrong, than admit they were wrong.

*9/ *Humans can be trained and conditioned quickly and relatively easily to significantly alter their behaviours - for better or worse.

*10/ When sufficiently frightened, most people will not only accept authoritarianism, but demand it.

11/ *People who are dismissed as 'conspiracy theorists' are often well researched and simply ahead of the mainstream narrative.

*12/ *Most people value safety and security more than freedom and liberty, even if said 'safety' is merely an illusion.

*13/ *Hedonic adaptation occurs in both directions, and once inertia sets in, it is difficult to get people back to 'normal'.

*14/ *A significant % of people thoroughly enjoy being subjugated.

*15/* 'The Science' has evolved into a secular pseudo-religion for millions of people in the West. This religion has little to do with science itself.

*16/* Most people care more about looking like they are doing the right thing, rather than actually doing the right thing.

*17/* Politics, the media, science, and the healthcare industries are all corrupt, to varying degrees. Scientists and doctors can be bought as easily as politicians.

*18/* If you make people comfortable enough, they will not revolt. You can keep millions docile as you strip their rights, by giving them money, food, and entertainment.

*19/ *Modern people are overly complacent and lack vigilance when it comes to defending their own freedoms from government overreach.

*20/* It's easier to fool a person than to convince them that they have been fooled.

*Bonus thought: 21/* Most people are fairly compassionate and have good intentions (this is good)
As a result, most people deeply struggle to understand that some people, including our 'leaders', CAN have malicious or perverse intentions (this is bad)."


----------



## james4beach

Here's a Bloomberg article (author is a WSJ editor): Why Brits Should Keep Masking Up

Part of it is copy & pasted below. I am using the same logic myself, and will continue wearing a mask in crowded areas around strangers.
​... Brits can congregate without restriction and are free to bin or burn their face masks if they want. Masking up will no longer be required in public spaces or even on public transport. ​​*But everything we know about this virus suggests proceeding with caution. Keeping a mask mandate in certain crowded settings costs little and can help reduce virus transmission, especially going into the autumn and winter. It would also reinforce a culture of safety.* Instead, mask-wearing is likely to become more politicized.​​It’s fine to take the calculated risk that restrictions can be lifted. As my colleague Sam Fazeli has noted, at least the government has kept the door open to reimposing some restrictions. But to talk about “freedom” is to tempt fate. Britain still has one of the highest Covid infection rates, with a 51% increase in hospital admissions in the seven days to July 4. One-third of adults are not yet fully vaccinated.​​Hospitals are also struggling with gargantuan backlogs of surgeries and other treatments, a growing stream of Covid patients and high rates of burnout among doctors and other staff. One teaching hospital in Leeds recently had to cancel major cancer surgeries because the rising Covid workload has had knock-on effects. And this is happening during the summer, typically a quieter season for the NHS.​​On Wednesday, medical journal The Lancet published an article by 100 top scientists arguing that the government is “embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment” in the wholesale lifting of restrictions on July 19. Such a move, they write, will allow unmitigated virus transmission, especially among unvaccinated children and young people, that will likely accelerate when schools reopen in the fall. ​​


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Yup.........that is what I have been posting.
> 
> The new Lambda variant is also spreading rapidly and scientists say it could further deteriorate the effectiveness of the vaccines.
> 
> People don't want to accept that it is the virus that dictates the restrictions, and the governments are only following the best advice from the experts.


What you don't realize is that the various experts have different opinions.
also we have to consider all the trade offs.

How much suffering should we inflict on people to save a few people from COVID?
That's a very important question, and one some people are trying to pretend doesn't exist.


----------



## 5Lgreenback

Bout a good time to bring in Ivermectin and get back to normal life then? For those still scared, feel free to self lockdown.

But don't worry, if Ivermectin saves the day, or the virus naturally gets weaker and fades away (as it seems to be doing), that vaccines will take credit for it either way.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario moving to Step 3 of summer COVID-19 reopening plan on July 16


> _Ontario will move to the third step of its summer reopening plan on July 16, reopening indoor dining, indoor fitness activity, cinemas and nightclubs for the first time in months.
> 
> The Ford cabinet met on Friday morning to confirm the measures, which will allow indoor dining to resume across the province (except in Waterloo Region) with capacity limited to the number of people who can maintain physical distancing of two metres.
> 
> The relaxed measures will take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Friday morning, the government said in a news release.
> 
> They also confirmed the existence of a fourth step in the reopening plan, where “the vast majority of public health and workplace safety measures, including capacity limits for indoor and outdoor settings and limits for social gatherings, will be lifted.”
> 
> They say Ontario will remain in Step 3 for at least 21 days, and until 80 per cent of Ontarians 12+ have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 75 per cent have received a second.
> 
> As of Friday, 78 per cent of Ontarians age 12 and up have received a first dose and 50 per cent have received a second.
> 
> As of July 16, all retailers will also be allowed to accept as many patrons as they can fit while maintaining physical distancing of two metres.
> 
> Cinemas, amusement parks and indoor fitness facilities will be allowed to reopen at 50 per cent capacity.
> 
> Indoor gatherings will be permitted with up to 25 people indoors or 100 people outdoors.
> 
> Nightclubs and restaurants with dance floors will be restricted to 50 per cent of pre-pandemic capacity, up to the number of patrons where two metres of physical distancing can be maintained.
> 
> Also, professional sports venues will be able to accept up to 15,000 spectators seated outdoors, or 75 per cent of their pre-pandemic capacity. Indoors, they will be allowed to accept 1,000 spectators or half of pre-pandemic capacity, whichever is smaller.
> 
> Elsewhere in sport, all sport activity with contact will be allowed to resume.
> 
> Personal care outlets will also be allowed to resume services that require the removal of masks.
> 
> Places of worship will be allowed to accept as many people as they can provided two metre distancing can be maintained.
> 
> Last month, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore seemed to suggest the province would not move to Step 3 ahead of schedule, as he said they needed time to analyze case trends in the wake of the Delta variant.
> 
> The scientific director of Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, Dr. Peter Jüni, echoed his concern, saying this week that the province was not ready for Step 3 because of the increased transmission capabilities of the Delta variant.
> 
> 
> In Toronto and Peel Region, cinemas, indoor dining and gyms have been closed since Oct. 2020.
> 
> Strip clubs, bathhouses and sex clubs will also be permitted to reopen in Step 3.
> 
> Strip clubs will be restricted to the number of patrons where two metres of physical distancing can be maintained, with a three metre gap between patrons and performers.
> 
> Bathhouses and sex clubs will be restricted to 50 per cent of pre-pandemic capacity up to the number of patrons where two metres of physical distancing can be maintained.
> 
> Other cultural sites such as museums, science centres and aquariums will be limited to 50 per cent of pre-pandemic capacity.
> 
> Casinos will also reopen at 50 per cent of pre-pandemic capacity._


 .. while this will be welcomed, the "2 metres distance" rule/guideline is laughable. 

For a start, I wonder if employers are going to 2 metres distancing their employees?


----------



## sags

They throw the 2 meter rule in so when there are inevitable outbreaks they can say people didn't follow the rules so it isn't the Ford government's fault.

Alberta's Jason Kenney tried to use the excuse before but it didn't help his poll numbers, and now he is demanding a 5% pay cut for nurses.

Every person in Alberta interviewed by the media didn't agree with him and many said nurses should receive a raise.

You gotta wonder about some of these Premier's decisions.


----------



## Spudd

Beaver101 said:


> For a start, I wonder if employers are going to 2 metres distancing their employees?


I'm gonna say yes? I mean, they already were, to the best of my knowledge. I took a retail job for about 6 months last year and we were told to maintain distancing, and the lunch rooms had the seats spaced out 2 metres apart and tape on the floor to show you where you were allowed to sit.


----------



## sags

I agree totally that most companies are trying their best to keep everyone safe.......but some of the employees not so much.

At my wife's retirement home, she says some employees are always skirting the rules and they are working with vulnerable older people.

The company can't force vaccinations or reveal who is vaccinated and who refused. The residents don't know who is vaccinated and who isn't.

As a result nobody in the residence can know how exposed they are to Covid infection.

I think that most people with a loved one in a retirement or LTC home would want assurances that the people working there are vaccinated.

But as it stands.......there are no such assurances. I don't think people know that. I think they assume that everyone is fully vaccinated.


----------



## Beaver101

Spudd said:


> I'm gonna say yes? I mean, they already were, to the best of my knowledge. I took a retail job for about 6 months last year and we were told to maintain distancing, and the lunch rooms had the seats spaced out 2 metres apart and tape on the floor to show you where you were allowed to sit.


 ... but how about a rehab gym/hair salon/ or a fast food joint? I can't see how employees can be 2 metres distanced once capacity goes up. Add to that risk is "unmasking". Nothing said about that in the Stage 3 Reopening plan.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> I agree totally that most companies are trying their best to keep everyone safe.......but some of the employees not so much.
> 
> At my wife's retirement home, she says some employees are always skirting the rules and they are working with vulnerable older people.
> 
> The company can't force vaccinations or reveal who is vaccinated and who refused. The residents don't know who is vaccinated and who isn't.
> 
> As a result nobody in the residence can know how exposed they are to Covid infection.
> 
> I think that most people with a loved one in a retirement or LTC home would want assurances that the people working there are vaccinated.
> 
> But as it stands.......there are no such assurances. I don't think people know that. I think they assume that everyone is fully vaccinated.


 ... are you serious? Has those responsible for LTC safety not learned anything - by now? As an alternative, I thought those vaccine-refusing frontline healthcare workers were going to get "some education" on the merits of the vaccine at the very least. Does this not apply to LTCs?

Changing musical chairs from Merrilee to Rod doesn't change the fact that LTC residents (and its workers) remain vulnerable.


----------



## Spudd

Beaver101 said:


> ... but how about a rehab gym/hair salon/ or a fast food joint? I can't see how employees can be 2 metres distanced once capacity goes up. Add to that risk is "unmasking". Nothing said about that in the Stage 3 Reopening plan.


I listened to the press conference today and he said masking requirements will remain in place during stage 3. He was unwilling to speculate on when they might be lifted.

I think hair salons should be pretty easy to maintain distancing between employees, I think the chairs are normally about 2m apart anyway. Of course the stylist can't maintain distance from the customer given the nature of the work.

I agree it seems like it would be challenging in fast food, even without capacity going up (not a lot of room behind those counters).


----------



## Beaver101

^ That's why I said priorly the "2 meters apart" rule is laughable. Good to hear that at least the mask requirements will remain in place as impractical the 2 meters apart rule is.


----------



## james4beach

A couple interesting news items.

BC may have under-reported pandemic deaths with possibly 1700 more deaths last year than reported.

and

Canada launches first national vaccine injury program, which offers compensation to those with serious vaccine side effects (including death)



> Advocates in Canada have been calling for a VISP since the 1980s. Until now, Canada was the only G7 nation without such a program, though Quebec has had a provincial version in place since 1987.


----------



## Beaver101

^ The 2nd link is good to know, encouraging, and supportive action.


----------



## damian13ster

james4beach said:


> A couple interesting news items.
> 
> BC may have under-reported pandemic deaths with possibly 1700 more deaths last year than reported.
> 
> and
> 
> Canada launches first national vaccine injury program, which offers compensation to those with serious vaccine side effects (including death)


Not really interesting news. I have been saying and providing those statistics for months. And vast majority of those excess deaths are among people under 40. 
Lockdowns kill people. In BC lockdowns killed more people than COVID did, as evident by amount of excess deaths and age distribution of those. And that's not even accounting for overdoses, which spike is also caused by lockdowns.

Governments killed its own citizens.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> ^ The 2nd link is good to know, encouraging, and supportive action.


I agree, a nice (major) change in the country


----------



## james4beach

Bloomberg front page story says that US covid cases are up 47% for the last week, the largest weekly rise since the start of the pandemic. Since dumb Americans refuse to be cautious, all we can hope now is that fewer people die than in earlier waves.

As Canadians we also have to hope that the vaccines protect us but personally I would prefer a strategy that did not put all its faith in one single measure (vaccines). At this stage of the game, we should be maintaining strict masking rules across Canada and also preventing large gatherings.



> Confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. soared 47% to 136,351 in the week ended Sunday, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg show. The largest weekly rise since April 2020 comes as the highly contagious delta variant spreads in the country amid declining vaccination rates. The death toll for the period ticked up to 1,629.
> 
> While last week’s figures are a fraction of the weekly numbers during the winter, about half of Americans remain unvaccinated, slowing the battle against the virus. The U.S. has administered 334 million doses of vaccine, enough to cover about 52% of residents, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker.


----------



## Beaver101

^ It would be a miracle if no one got infected after this event in TO. England and Italy fans fill patios as teams battle for Euro 2020 final

Just wait until end of the week for an update.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> Just wait until end of the week for an update.


It takes longer than that. If the exposure happens today, sickness might appear within a week. And people only seek care when they are quite ill, so that could mean another +2 weeks. And then there's an additional reporting delay of +1 week.

From the last year of the pandemic we've often seen about a 4 week delay ... exposure event to eventual reporting in the media.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Even with the Delta variant? Heard it only takes 5 days for symptoms to show up.


----------



## Plugging Along

Beaver101 said:


> ^ It would be a miracle if no one got infected after this event in TO. England and Italy fans fill patios as teams battle for Euro 2020 final
> 
> Just wait until end of the week for an update.


I think we need to shift in our thinking in terms of infections especially with vaccinations. Even with the variants, there is protection from the vaccinations. The vaccinations server two fold: 1. REDUCE transmission either by reducing the viral load of the person infected, or if you do get exposed, your body fights off the virus 2. If you do get get sick, reducing severe outcomes.

We are nearing the point, depending your province, that we must learn how to deal with the virus. Its not going away, but hopefully there will be less people getting it, and more importantly, those that do won't have as many severe outcomes. It will be interesting in a few weeks time as James said on what the impact on hospitalization.


----------



## Beaver101

Plugging Along said:


> I think we need to shift in our thinking in terms of infections especially with vaccinations. Even with the variants, there is protection from the vaccinations. The vaccinations server two fold: 1. REDUCE transmission either by reducing the viral load of the person infected, or if you do get exposed, your body fights off the virus 2. If you do get get sick, reducing severe outcomes.


 ... yes, we (with some exceptions) should have faith in the vaccines. However, this does not stop the transmission/infection to others. Ie. the virus is going to get shared and if one is not vaccinated or fully vaccinated, then there's going to be a problem.



> We are nearing the point, depending your province, that we must learn how to deal with the virus. Its not going away, but hopefully there will be less people getting it, and more importantly, those that do won't have as many severe outcomes. It will be interesting in a few weeks time as James said on what the impact on hospitalization.


 ... yes, let's see. Hopefully the infection rate + hospitalisation trends down despite emerging variants.


----------



## james4beach

Anti-mask, anti public health order churches have been spying on, and harassing the Manitoba judge who is presiding over their case.

They've been following the judge and even monitoring him at home. What menaces to society, these guys!



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-chief-justice-followed-private-investigator-1.6099124


----------



## Beaver101

^ Those churches sure have alot of money to go hiring a private investigator solely for the purpose of monitoring a judge's movement on Covid restrictions, nothing to say about retaining its own lawyer. When those funds can be better spent elsewhere. I wonder if the parishers are in agreement with this kind of spending. Sheesh.


----------



## sags

Are the vaccines effective against severe symptoms of the variants ? Pfizer and Moderna say we already need a booster shot.

I think it is inevitable that we will screw around until a variant pops up that renders the vaccines useless.

What we really need is a good treatment for when people get infected, but we have never had a good treatment for viruses.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Those churches sure have alot of money to go hiring a private investigator solely for the purpose of monitoring a judge's movement on Covid restrictions, nothing to say about retaining its own lawyer. When those funds can be better spent elsewhere. I wonder if the parishers are in agreement with this kind of spending. Sheesh.


It's more than churches. I'll post a new thread. This is a conservative think tank which makes a habit of intimidating public officials.


----------



## gibor365

I'm curious from which country there will be *epsilon variant *


----------



## damian13ster

Feds unaware if 66% of incoming travellers quarantined during 1st COVID-19 wave: report - National | Globalnews.ca


The finding was revealed in a report from the Auditor General of Canada made public Monday.




globalnews.ca


----------



## Spudd

gibor365 said:


> I'm curious from which country there will be *epsilon variant *


*B.1.427 *(Pango lineageexternal icon)a
*Spike Protein Substitutions*: L452R, D614G
*Name *(Nextstrainexternal icon)b: 20C/S:452R
*WHO Label*: Epsilon
*First Identified*: United States-(California)


----------



## bgc_fan

Here's a little covid simulation game. Gives you the chance to make the decisions for the country to balance out deaths, economic prosperity, vaccinations. The goal is to achieve herd immunity. A fun little timewaster I guess.





__





Ceo of Pandemic - Save your population


Help your country achieve herd immunity




pandemiceo.com


----------



## james4beach

Plugging Along said:


> It will be interesting in a few weeks time as James said on what the impact on hospitalization.


Hopefully we see steady levels of hospitalizations, and not an increase in the severe outcomes. We can learn this by watching the UK, Israel and US. Keep in mind that the US now has growing transmission and cases as well.

Let's hope that the vaccine is 'catching' all of these.

Personally I still think the superior approach is multi faceted, to not depend solely on vaccines. I think it's a policy mistake to depend only on vaccines because it's really putting all your eggs in one basket. If a new variant comes and evades the vaccine, then we're all screwed.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Even an increase in hospitalizations (and not deaths) due to Covid is going to be a major problem. I wonder how long can healthcare workers such as nurses and doctors continue battling this after a year and a half ...


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Even an increase in hospitalizations (and not deaths) due to Covid is going to be a major problem. I wonder how long can healthcare workers such as nurses and doctors continue battling this after a year and a half ...


Not long for some: Canadian nurses are leaving in droves, worn down by 16 merciless months on the front lines of COVID-19

Problem has always been understaffing, so with increased workload and maintaining the same staffing isn't going to work for very long. I can't really blame them either.


----------



## damian13ster

I hope that Macron survives that. He is really pissing off hundreds of thousands of people. 
Might end in another Bastille.
Hopefully other authoritarians learn


----------



## Beaver101

^ I wonder which other authoritarian(s) can replace Macron and lead the Frenchmen/women out of the pandemic successfully? Without pissing them off again, of course.


----------



## damian13ster

Maybe someone who won't be an authoritarian? 
Not familiar with each individual politician in France. Not sure what kind of response you expect?
Facts are that Macron single-handedly just created a super-spreader event with 100,000+ people.


----------



## zinfit

Yes their are rising rising numbers of the Delta variant but lets be clear almost ALL of those cases are people who aren't vaccinated. In terms of transmission almost every authority say the risk is very low with fully vaccinated people. The reason is simple. If a vaccinated person becomes infected it is a very mild form and people with a mild form are not a significant source of transmission. Lets remain focused . We are seeing a rise in infections because a significant portion of the population refuses be vaccinated. In regards to Europe I look at their data with a jaundice eye. They used a higher percentage of Astrezenca and I think there are concerns about how effective it is against the Delta variant and other mutations.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> Yes their are rising rising numbers of the Delta variant but lets be clear almost ALL of those cases are people who aren't vaccinated. In terms of transmission almost every authority say the risk is very low with fully vaccinated people. The reason is simple. If a vaccinated person becomes infected it is a very mild form and people with a mild form are not a significant source of transmission. Lets remain focused . We are seeing a rise in infections because a significant portion of the population refuses be vaccinated. In regards to Europe I look at their data with a jaundice eye. They used a higher percentage of Astrezenca and I think there are concerns about how effective it is against the Delta variant and other mutations.











If you are a close contact of COVID-19


Find out what you need to do if you're a close contact of a person that tests positive for COVID-19 (coronavirus).




www2.hse.ie





And the fact that you don't need to get tested when vaccinated, while you still need a test if not-vaccinated doesn't skew the number of positives?
The infection numbers have always been useless because they have strong correlation with only one variable - amount of tests conducted.
By limiting amount of tests you limit amount of positive tests.
Hell, you can prohibit vaccinated people from getting tested and you will achieve 100% effectiveness in preventing infection 
You can also prohibit non-vaccinated people from getting tested and results will show vaccines are absolutely useless.


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> If you are a close contact of COVID-19
> 
> 
> Find out what you need to do if you're a close contact of a person that tests positive for COVID-19 (coronavirus).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www2.hse.ie
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And the fact that you don't need to get tested when vaccinated, while you still need a test if not-vaccinated doesn't skew the number of positives?
> The infection numbers have always been useless because they have strong correlation with only one variable - amount of tests conducted.
> By limiting amount of tests you limit amount of positive tests.
> Hell, you can prohibit vaccinated people from getting tested and you will achieve 100% effectiveness in preventing infection
> You can also prohibit non-vaccinated people from getting tested and results will show vaccines are absolutely useless.


hospitalization rates don't lie.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> hospitalization rates don't lie.


I have been saying that entire pandemic.
Yet when I used exactly same argument to show data that government restrictions are useless in decreasing hospitalizations and deaths, some pointed to studies showing infection rates (which seen highest correlation with number of test surprisingly compared to any other factors   )


----------



## james4beach

Cases in Texas are surging. Hardly a surprise, since they stupidly relaxed all restrictions, encouraged everything to open up totally, and the governor also banned mask mandates (meaning masks cannot be made mandatory anywhere)

I seem to recall there were some on this forum, maybe it was @zinfit or @Eder who was cheering Texas, saying this was the right way to manage the pandemic. @zinfit you're in Texas right now right? I hope you're staying safe and using a mask to protect yourself.

The 7-day average of cases has about *doubled* versus the previous week, and hospitalizations are up 47%.









As Texas COVID-19 cases surge again, some local officials urge everyone to wear masks and unvaccinated residents to stay home


As Texas COVID-19 cases surge again, some local officials urge everyone to wear masks and unvaccinated residents to stay home




www.krgv.com





There is also more extensive modeling in this PDF

This model notes that "hospital volumes have risen 89 percent over the past two weeks" and they are projecting hospital loads _which exceed_ the early 2021 surge. The projections also show that the escalation can be extinguished if masks are mandated and business restrictions are brought back.

It would appear that just opening up everything, and encouraging people to ditch masks, doesn't work so great. The % of Texans fully vaccinated is very similar to % of Canadians fully vaccinated. *So what they are experiencing can happen here too, if people become reckless and stop being cautious.*


----------



## sags

The GOP governors are reaping what they sowed.


----------



## zinfit

The sunbelt season for covid is the hot summer months. It is to hot to be outside so people gather inside and that is the perfect environment for transmission. In a certain way the conditions are similar to our winter. For Texas one must bear in mind that Texas tis facing a hugh surge in illegal migrants. Most aren't vaccinated and something like 30% are testing positive. They apreheld in holding centers for a short while and then are released with an undertaking to appear before an immigration board. I am not sure why anyone would suggest I am anti-mask. I have supported masks from the beginning. The current Texas numbers have a long ways to go before they are comparable to previous peak levels. I would more interested in the hospitalization and death rates. The data might be showing a high percentage of unvaccinated young people . Deaths with this group is extremely rare.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> The sunbelt season for covid is the hot summer months. It is to hot to be outside so people gather inside and that is the perfect environment for transmission. In a certain way the conditions are similar to our winter. *For Texas one must bear in mind that Texas tis facing a hugh surge in illegal migrants*. Most aren't vaccinated and something like 30% are testing positive. They apreheld in holding centers for a short while and then are released with an undertaking to appear before an immigration board.


 ... guess that Dumpity wall ain't working after-all.



> I am not sure why anyone would suggest I am anti-mask. I have supported masks from the beginning.


 ... not if they're now "banned". You know, it's "unconstitutional" to be "muzzled".



> The current Texas numbers have a long ways to go before they are comparable to previous peak levels. *I would more interested in the hospitalization and death rates*.


 ... why?



> The data might be showing a high percentage of *unvaccinated* young people . Deaths with this group is extremely rare.


 ... define "extremely rare" or just that it's not publicized there. 


From my POV, the lesson to be learned from Covid is "everyone have the freedom to take their chance(s)".


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... guess that Dumpity wall ain't working after-all.
> 
> ... not if they're now "banned". You know, it's "unconstitutional" to be "muzzled".
> 
> ... why?
> 
> ... define "extremely rare" or just that it's not publicized there.
> 
> From my POV, the lesson to be learned from Covid is "everyone have the freedom to take their chance(s)".


The British just completed a study on this . The number of young people dying from drowning was 6 times higher then from covid . Since March of 2020 3105 British children have died from all causes. 25 deaths were related to covid. The National Health Service in a recent study concluded that any child under the age of 18 had a 99.995 % chance of surviving covid. In the USA 397 children have died from covid compared to 49000 who have died from other causes.In Canada 14 children have died from covid representing about.01% of all covid deaths. I prefer stats on hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths because they paint a much clearer picture of the problem. I don't think the Texas numbers are anywhere close to previous peak numbers. Before we get carried anyway politicalizing the recent spike in numbers how come Democrat California is experiencing the same spike?


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## Beaver101

^


> B*efore we get carried anyway politicalizing* the recent spike in numbers how come Democrat California is experiencing the same spike?


 ... then let's move away from the USA altogther and look at a Covid "success" story/country: Australia. 

Australia once reveled in being the 'lucky country' on COVID-19. Now weary Aussies 'feel like prisoners'

Now my news source above tells me "what's Australia's problem""now"? Answer: the pandemic ain't over.

_



For much of 2020, Australia's success in controlling the virus was the envy of the world. By March of that year, as Italian hospitals drowned in cases and the UK dithered about restrictions, Australia decisively closed its borders -- and the tactic initially paid off.

A country of 25 million people, it has recorded just over 900 coronavirus-related deaths since the pandemic began. Its total case numbers are around 32,000 -- a figure the UK is exceeding daily. And its economy has bounced back.

But more than a year on, Australians remain shut inside their gilded cage, relying on a series of short, sharp lockdowns to quell an outbreak of the highly-contagious Delta variant.

More than half the population -- including those in state capitals Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide -- are again living under lockdown measures following dozens of new cases.

While other Western countries surge ahead with their vaccination rollouts and begin to reopen, Australia's has been achingly slow. Just over 11% of Australians are fully vaccinated -- the lowest of the OECD's 38 countries.

"Fortress Australia" is now facing uncomfortable questions about just how far this island sanctuary is willing to go to protect itself from external threats -- including raising the drawbridge to its own citizens. ...

Click to expand...

_


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## sags

I noticed this comment......which would indicate that opening up indoor dining is likely going to increase the spread of the virus.

_The pattern I am picking up is when people move indoors for heating or cooling. In the winter, folks in the north move indoors for heat and the virus easily transmits. In the summer, folks in the southwest/southeast move indoors for cooling. Virus expands. _


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## 5Lgreenback

^ Right. So blaming this on the unvax, is at best bad journalism, but more realistically, its them lying.

As for indoor dining, doubt that will cause much issue. Natural immunity, at least for the healthy people seems to be the only shot we have at attaining herd immunity.


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## sags

It is the unvaxxed who are getting sick and clogging up hospitals. The statistic today is 97% of the infected in hospitals are the un-vaccinated.

I listened to a doctor in the US in an ER/ICU hospital and he said he sees new patients coming in with every shift he does. He says he has yet to see one person who was fully vaccinated. His "rate" of unvaccinated people was 100%. He also talks to doctors all over the US and said they are seeing the same thing.

So.......do they believe their lying eyes ?


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## 5Lgreenback

sags said:


> It is the unvaxxed who are getting sick and clogging up hospitals. The statistic today is 97% of the infected in hospitals are the un-vaccinated.
> 
> I listened to a doctor in the US in an ER/ICU hospital and he said he sees new patients coming in with every shift he does. He says he has yet to see one person who was fully vaccinated. His "rate" of unvaccinated people was 100%. He also talks to doctors all over the US and said they are seeing the same thing.
> 
> So.......do they believe their lying eyes ?



Theres lots of evidence about this being false, I've posted some of it.

I've seen many doctors post that they are seeing numbers that reflect those in UK and Israel. IE- Vax isn't working.

So, do they believe their lying eyes? 

Who would have more incentive and pressure to lie, between these opposing obseverations?


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## damian13ster

Exactly. It was posted multiple times here, with sources, that the policy is not to test vaccinated people.
If you don't test, then you don't have positive results. 
It is as simple as that, yet some choose to ignore this fact as it doesn't fit their narrative.


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## bgc_fan

sags said:


> It is the unvaxxed who are getting sick and clogging up hospitals. The statistic today is 97% of the infected in hospitals are the un-vaccinated.
> 
> I listened to a doctor in the US in an ER/ICU hospital and he said he sees new patients coming in with every shift he does. He says he has yet to see one person who was fully vaccinated. His "rate" of unvaccinated people was 100%. He also talks to doctors all over the US and said they are seeing the same thing.
> 
> So.......do they believe their lying eyes ?


No, basically, conspiracy theorists are trying to say that when you show up to the hospital exhibiting covid symptoms, they ask if you are vaccinated. If yes, they just send you away, without testing and don't treat you so you don't count you in the official count. But apparently not all hospitals play the same game, so sometimes, someone who says they're vaccinated will get tested and that gets counted. That's why you still get that fraction of the percent of people with covid who were vaccinated.

Yes, conspiracy theorists are twisting themselves up in knots to convince themselves that they cracked the code.


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## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> Yes, conspiracy theorists are twisting themselves up in knots to convince themselves that they cracked the code.


I can't believe the conspiracy theorists get this much airtime.

Like most conspiracy theories, there is an element of truth of course. Yes it's true that vaccines don't prevent all illnesses. There still are fully vaccinated people who catch COVID, and some will even get very sick, and some will die. This is why I keep saying ... we must keep wearing masks in high risk public settings, because *the pandemic isn't over*. We are all still in danger and cases are skyrocketing in the US right now.

On the other hand, there is no question that vaccination dramatically reduces the severity of the illness. Your probability of death decreases substantially once you are vaccinated.

I have said since day one that I am not worried about getting sick. I'm worried about ending up in the hospital connected to tubes, or DEATH. Getting vaccinated reduces the probability of these worst case scenarios and this is confirmed by all medical evidence so far.


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## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> Like most conspiracy theories, there is an element of truth of course.


The problem is they take that small grain of truth, and run off in some completely random direction with no rational evidence.

Somehow, it's easier to believe that 22 million health care workers in the USA are working together in a conspiracy to show that vaccinated people aren't showing up in the emergency wards in as great a number as unvaccinated people, than it is to believe in the thousand of years of vaccination history that shows being vaccinated reduces the chance of serious illness of that disease.

And that somehow, out of that 22 million people, there isn't a whistleblower to expose the conspiracy. Instead it seems to be other people who apparently have a lot of free time to go on podcasts and talk shows to promote their theories, or cures, but don't bother to actually implement them anywhere for proof.


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## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> I can't believe the conspiracy theorists get this much airtime.
> 
> *Like most conspiracy theories, there is an element of truth of course.* Yes it's true that vaccines don't prevent all illnesses. There still are fully vaccinated people who catch COVID, and some will even get very sick, and some will die. This is why I keep saying ... we must keep wearing masks in high risk public settings, because *the pandemic isn't over*. We are all still in danger and cases are skyrocketing in the US right now.
> 
> On the other hand, there is no question that vaccination dramatically reduces the severity of the illness. Your probability of death decreases substantially once you are vaccinated.
> 
> I have said since day one that I am not worried about getting sick. I'm worried about ending up in the hospital connected to tubes, or DEATH. Getting vaccinated reduces the probability of these worst case scenarios and this is confirmed by all medical evidence so far.


 ... there lies the problem. According to conspiracists, vaccines don't work, masks don't work, catching Covid ensure their tax dollars are well spent by allowing healthcare workers keep their jobs. Plus conspiracists aren't afraid of dying because they think everyone else does. Conspiracists are the bravest souls on this planet.


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## sags

That is a key problem with all these conspiracy theories.... that it is all kept secret by everyone who would have to be involved.


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## bgc_fan

Back to covid, it looks like a similar pattern that happened in the UK and US is happening in Alberta. Younger people less likely to be vaccinated and are making up a larger proportion of the cases. Delta variant, infections among young adults bump up COVID count in Alberta


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## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Back to covid, it looks like a similar pattern that happened in the UK and US is happening in Alberta. Younger people less likely to be vaccinated and are making up a larger proportion of the cases. Delta variant, infections among young adults bump up COVID count in Alberta


That is going to happen in every province. The quicker it happens the better off the province will be in the long run. We need to get as many anti-vaxxers naturally inoculated (mildly infected) as we can during the warmer weather. If we wait too long the wave we are going to get this fall will be significantly nastier and deadlier.

The good news is that the actual daily infection rate for Alberta would easily be 10 times or more, the number they are talking about in that article. Most infections will be so mild, right now, no one will bother testing for it. As I mentioned, however, that will change in the fall.


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## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> That is going to happen in every province. The quicker it happens the better off the province will be in the long run. We need to get as many anti-vaxxers naturally inoculated (mildly infected) as we can during the warmer weather. If we wait too long the wave we are going to get this fall will be significantly nastier and deadlier.


Well, that's an interesting way of looking for a silver lining. I mean it hasn't worked out so much in the US (regarding warmer weather), although the reasoning is that everyone is indoors during summer. From the numbers, it looks like BC and Alberta are on the leading edge of increased numbers. Ontario was always on that tipping point so it may go that way sooner rather than later. It was always going to be an issue as things open up again, as lockdowns are only a method to delay the increase of cases... at least delay long enough so that enough people are fully vaccinated. If there are significant holdouts, that could be problematic. Simply because that means there will be a population pool where the virus can mutate to something worse.


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## MrBlackhill

I don't know if it has been mentioned already, but in Quebec there's a contest for vaccinated people. To win, 4 prices of $150,000 and 1 price of $1M (for doubled vaccinated people). Teens of age 12-17 can also participate for a chance to win one of the 8 scholarship of $10,000 and one of the 16 scholarship of $20,000 (for doubled vaccinated people).

There's already 360,000 subscriptions within the first 24h and the site is down, haha.


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## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Well, that's an interesting way of looking for a silver lining. I mean it hasn't worked out so much in the US (regarding warmer weather), although the reasoning is that everyone is indoors during summer. From the numbers, it looks like BC and Alberta are on the leading edge of increased numbers. Ontario was always on that tipping point so it may go that way sooner rather than later. It was always going to be an issue as things open up again, as lockdowns are only a method to delay the increase of cases... at least delay long enough so that enough people are fully vaccinated. If there are significant holdouts, that could be problematic. Simply because that means there will be a population pool where the virus can mutate to something worse.


I don't think the US has an outrageous amount of hospitalizations and deaths. Infections are fairly meaningless these days and now that the vaccination program is winding down, a mild infection should be seen as a good thing. The way I see it, and the way others should see it if they think about it clearly, is that these people that don't vaccinate are going to get infected eventually. All precautions and restrictions do is delay that inevitable event. I mean there is nothing left we can do, at this point, but let these people get infected.  Herd immunity can't happen until the world is vaccinated and that is not going to happen, so our unvaccinated are going to get infected, so lets get on with it before the cold weather comes.

It is all that is left. The pandemic will not be over until these people get their exposure.


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## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> I don't think the US has an outrageous amount of hospitalizations and deaths. Infections are fairly meaningless these days and now that the vaccination program is winding down, a mild infection should be seen as a good thing. The way I see it, and the way others should see it if they think about it clearly, is that these people that don't vaccinate are going to get infected eventually. All precautions and restrictions do is delay that inevitable event. I mean there is nothing left we can do, at this point, but let these people get infected.  Herd immunity can't happen until the world is vaccinated and that is not going to happen, so our unvaccinated are going to get infected, so lets get on with it before the cold weather comes.
> 
> It is all that is left. The pandemic will not be over until these people get their exposure.


Outrageous? Maybe not, but hospitalization rate is on an upswing, and I don't think you get hospitalized for mild infections:









Seeing as it is still rising, it is approaching a third of the peak they had in January.

Deaths, not as much since it's a different age demographic that is being affected:









Hospitalization rates for over 65 years.









Thing is that more people exposed to the virus, means more chances of mutations, as the virus has a chance of surviving longer in an unvaccinated person. Vaccinations will cut that incubation time significantly to reduce chances of mutation.


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## OptsyEagle

No argument. You don't get hospitalizations from mild infections. That is the point. Hopefully you mostly get inoculated Canadians from them. The majority of infections that happen in a highly vaccinated world, outside, especially within the younger population, will be of the mild type. Unfortuneately, it will not be all the infections we get. Some people do socialize indoors, for far too long of time, while forgetting to crack a window, and we still have our immune compromised/co-morbidities to deal with.

My point is that we will be far better off getting our unvaccinated infected now then if we wait until the fall and at this stage of the pandemic, it is the last thing that will get done. There is no avoiding it only delaying it and that causes other issues and as I said, there is no avoiding it.

That is my point. I am just giving everyone the cold hard truth. Of course some people will get severely sick and many people will die but we cannot avoid that. These people have made up their minds. My point here, is there will be a lot less death and destruction, if we get on with it now then if we wait until colder weather prevails. With vaccination rates coming to a standstill these days we are at the point in the pandemic where we now need to let the virus run its course. It is sad to say but it is our next step. We are not getting out of this. We never were.


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## sags

Non-vaccinated people are being re-infected with the new variant, so I don't have much faith in "herd immunity" being a major factor.

The only thing close to herd immunity that I hear from the experts is among vaccinated people transmitting it to other vaccinated people.

They have a quasi-herd immunity from getting seriously ill, but they are still passing the virus to each other.

The vaccines are not a cure. They do not prevent infection. All they do is train the body to react as soon as the person is infected.

At this point in time.........nothing prevents the spread of the virus except staying away from anyone who "could" be infected.


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## sags

Dr. Fauci cited two possible scenarios if they don't get the vaccination rate significantly higher than it is......and likely will never be attained.

1. The healthcare system will be overwhelmed. More people will get sick and more people will die.

2. The virus will mutate into something more dangerous and renders the vaccines useless.

Neither are good scenarios. I think it is very questionable to be opening the border while the pandemic rages in the US.

I think if Dr. Fauci was free to give advice to Canada, he would recommend keeping the border closed until the situation in the US improves.

It may be a decision that Trudeau regrets in the future. The Conservatives who lobby to open everything up are waiting to blame him for any rise in cases.


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## OptsyEagle

Sags you are pretty much there but you are deriving the wrong conclusions. I agree. Forget herd immunity. All we can hope for is vaccination or previous infection protection. That is all we can achieve. Most of us vaccinated to protect ourselves safely. The rest will get infected. That is what they chose. Some will die. Many will get very sick, may even have some long term issues, but any survivors will have some very wonderful protection from this and most mutations going forward.

This virus will become like the flu. Mostly just ruin a few days of your life where you feel like crap. That is because we have all been exposed to it many times. Whatever flu mutation comes at us we can pretty much handle, except for a very small amount of our population who have health issues.

We cannot keep social distancing forever. The vaccination program in Canada is coming to an end. The next step is to open things up, let the virus run its course. Let the virus inoculate the unvaccinated and this pandemic will for the most part move into the history books with 12 months. There is nothing else left for us to do. Precautions just delay this inevitable event.

and of course Fauci wants more people to vaccinate. So do I, but I have given up on that dream now and I am starting to deal with reality.


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## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> We cannot keep social distancing forever. The vaccination program in Canada is coming to an end. The next step is to open things up, let the virus run its course, inoculate the unvaccinated and this pandemic will for the most part move into the history books. There is nothing else left to do.


I disagree with this analysis. You're saying there is nothing else left to do, which isn't true.

Israel continues to have requirements that ensure more safety, because the pandemic is still running its course. The correct action is to have some ongoing caution, enforced by public health measures (as Israel is doing). That doesn't mean you close businesses, but you require masks in dangerous places (indoors) and you limit travel.

The government response in some provinces, Ontario and Manitoba for example, have been flawed. They are either viewing society as "open" or "closed" but it doesn't have to be that way. This came with stupid restrictions like preventing people from even buying basic home essentials. Much of the exhaustion of the public has come from these wild swings.

That's because some of these governments have been stupid about this. You can keep businesses open and let people live their lives while also requiring some restrictions that slow the rate of spread.


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## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> I disagree with this analysis. You're saying there is nothing else left to do, which isn't true.
> 
> Israel continues to have requirements that ensure more safety, because the pandemic is still running its course. The correct action is to have some ongoing caution, enforced by public health measures (as Israel is doing). That doesn't mean you close businesses, but you require masks in dangerous places (indoors) and you limit travel.


Look. If the hospitals get overwhelmed in the fall, and they might then I will be all for bringing in some temporary restrictions until the hospitals achieve relief. I am just trying to inform people on this board that maintaining precautions just delays these people's bad outcomes it does not prevent them.  If the government can come up with a way to get more unvaccinated to vaccinate. Great. But I doubt they will be very successful and until the hospitalizations and deaths spike up I doubt the unvaccinated are going to do anything. Sooooo, lets get on with this. Why wait. That is my point. There is nothing to gain by waiting. 

If I guy gets and infection by being in a Canadian Tire store for 20 minutes he will be much better off then getting it at a Christmas dinner where he was inside for 3 hours. We need to take off these masks and let small amounts of the virus circulate while we can keep windows open and spend more time outside. Waiting will be more deadly.


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## sags

Nothing will return to as it was if the virus is still circulating freely.

We have to do everything possible to starve the virus of victims.......not offer it a buffet.

We are one possible mutation away from going back to lockdowns, CERB, and the last 2 years being a complete waste of time and money.


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## james4beach

@OptsyEagle Restricting dangerous settings is about shifting the probabilities about infections. Yes true that both Canadian Tire and Christmas dinner are dangerous.

But protecting yourself at Canadian Tire is still worth it. You are still shifting the probabilities in your favour. There is no guarantee you will get the virus in any specific setting. We already know there won't be restrictions indoors in private gatherings (dinner with family etc), plus people were breaking those rules already which is why Manitoba had such a significant spike that they are barely recovering from even in summer. Nobody is going to follow indoor rules at home with family.

So to keep shifting probabilities in our favour, the logical place to enforce mandatory restrictions in scenarios like public transit and busy universities. Or very crowded work/factory settings. These are no-brainers! It would be completely negligent to not have restrictions in these settings.

If you open everything, go back to 100 guest weddings, crowded university classes, and pack workers into factories again, there's going to be so much COVID spread that large numbers of Canadians will die from infections.


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## OptsyEagle

You seem to like the word probabilities so lets use it. The probability that you, I and everyone on this planet come in contact with active covid virus, before our lives are over, is pretty much 100%.

So the question becomes, how best to do that? Vaccinated is the best. Outdoors is next. Low time exposures indoors in large rooms is probably next. etc. etc. I agree, there is a place for masks. The immune compromised should continue to wear them. The workers in those stores should wear them if they are not vaccinated. The rest of us should discard them especially in the warmer months. This will offer our bodies a little more safer exposure to the virus making our immune systems stronger and stronger.

Every exposure you get of this virus, that does not kill you, will make you much stronger for your next exposure. We know that. That is how the flu works. That is also how Covid-19 works.

We can't keep staying away from each other forever. Even if we wear our masks in all those dangerous setting you talk about, all it does is leave us a little more vulnerable for when we come in contact with this virus in a much more confined, indoor setting, for longer periods of exposure time, when we are not wearing a mask. These masks were only meant to keep us protected until we were properly vaccinated.

We had one strategy for this pandemic. Vaccination. That program is ending. Everything else we do from now on ONLY delays. It really does not protect. It can only be temporary and whenever we eventually stop using these precautions, that future will be looking just like the present. So why wait. There is no long term benefit.


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## Beaver101

I'm surprised there hasn't been an uproar from doctors (and nurses) in fighting a losing battle with un-vaccinated Covid patients at this point.


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## sags

I am not sure that every exposure to the virus builds additional immunity.

This virus is very contagious.......some experts say 10 times more contagious than the Alpha virus and is passed quite rapidly through the air.

One doctor said simply walking in a mall through someone's else previous sneeze......can mean infection.

The virus hangs in the air and moves along with the air currents.

I would think it is more likely that every exposure will lead to infection......and then it goes on from there......sickness, transmission again, etc.


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## sags

Beaver101 said:


> I'm surprised there hasn't been an uproar from doctors (and nurses) in fighting a losing battle with un-vaccinated Covid patients at this point.


There has been. The doctors and nurses are quitting and leaving hospitals forced to close down beds and units.

It is a bad situation in Canada but much worse in the US.









'An alarming exodus': Ontario nursing sector slammed with staffing shortages as many rethink their careers


After experiencing a pandemic on the frontlines of an understaffed and overworked health-care sector, many nurses are rethinking their careers.




www.cp24.com


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## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> I am not sure that every exposure to the virus builds additional immunity.
> 
> This virus is very contagious.......some experts say 10 times more contagious than the Alpha virus and is passed quite rapidly through the air.
> 
> One doctor said simply walking in a mall through someone's else previous sneeze......can mean infection.
> 
> The virus hangs in the air and moves along with the air currents.
> 
> I would think it is more likely that every exposure will lead to infection......and then it goes on from there......sickness, transmission again, etc.


Of course an infection builds immunity. If it didn't nor would a vaccination. Anyway, we have already tested and confirmed this so I won't waste anymore words on that nonsense.

Sags, you listed a whole lot of worries but no solutions. You better hope that you are wrong and I am right because in your world this goes on forever. Maybe you want to live in that world but I know I don't and I suspect the majority of people in the world do not either.

Anyway, the good news is that I am right. This will not go on forever but maintaining precautions will delay it. The time for the old precautions, for the majority of our citizens, is over. They have no long term benefit anymore only detriment. The vaccines have been invented, they are working great, and there is nothing else for us to do. They are effective against all known variants, for the majority of people who get them, and the only way the remainder will ever be safe is after everyone has been exposed to covid and carries some form of immunity. That only happens when we remove our masks and start living again and if we can do it soon, with warmer weather, the majority of the non-vaccinated can get their exposure in a much more safer form.

I have analysed this carefully and I can assure you that it is the only way out of this mess. All the other alternatives are worse.


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## james4beach

sags said:


> There has been. The doctors and nurses are quitting and leaving hospitals forced to close down beds and units.


Yeah, and they will keep quitting. After this pandemic, the staff shortages and doctor shortages are only going to get worse. Governments showed very little concern for the well being of medical workers. Doctors and nurses don't get paid enough to go through the kind of hell that they have experienced for the last 16 months.

And now we're all going to drink & party, deliberately allowing the virus to spread without control measures? Not even requiring masks and distancing to at least limit the rate of infection?

I would suggest that we show more respect to hospital workers. It's totally unfair to make docs & nurses suffer like this, just because I want to drink, party, and travel all over the place.

And remember, if docs & nurses determine that the load has gotten too crazy, they CAN shut down everything. Even if the public says they want to keep everything open, even if the politicians say they won't shut things down, it's ultimately the docs & nurses who have the power to make that call. I would suggest that it's not smart to test their limits. It's disrespectful, and we can all suffer the consequences.


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## KaeJS

The cuckage continues:









French parliament approves COVID passes despite protests


New law extends use of health certificates in daily life, introduces mandatory vaccinations for healthcare workers.




www.aljazeera.com


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## damian13ster

james4beach said:


> Yeah, and they will keep quitting. After this pandemic, the staff shortages and doctor shortages are only going to get worse. Governments showed very little concern for the well being of medical workers. Doctors and nurses don't get paid enough to go through the kind of hell that they have experienced for the last 16 months.
> 
> And now we're all going to drink & party, deliberately allowing the virus to spread without control measures? Not even requiring masks and distancing to at least limit the rate of infection?
> 
> I would suggest that we show more respect to hospital workers. It's totally unfair to make docs & nurses suffer like this, just because I want to drink, party, and travel all over the place.
> 
> And remember, if docs & nurses determine that the load has gotten too crazy, they CAN shut down everything. Even if the public says they want to keep everything open, even if the politicians say they won't shut things down, it's ultimately the docs & nurses who have the power to make that call. I would suggest that it's not smart to test their limits. It's disrespectful, and we can all suffer the consequences.


Doctors and nurses don't have the power to make that call.
People do. Power is always in the hands of the people, few realize it though.
If the hospitals get overwhelmed, it will still be up to the people to decide whether it is enough of a reason to lose another couple years of our lives, or not. If the government shuts down everything again, it will still be up to the people whether they follow orders or not.
Doctors and nurses don't have the power to make that call.


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## james4beach

damian13ster said:


> Doctors and nurses don't have the power to make that call.


Sure they do.

They walk, and we're in a world of trouble. Nobody can force nurses to work, so if they have enough -- they walk / quit / retire.

They are already burned out and suffering PTSD. Every day of the pandemic, you should say a prayer of thanks that the nurses and doctors are still showing up to work.


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## damian13ster

james4beach said:


> Sure they do.
> 
> They walk, and we're in a world of trouble. Nobody can force nurses to work, so if they have enough -- they walk / quit / retire.
> 
> They are already burned out and suffering PTSD. Every day of the pandemic, you should say a prayer of thanks that the nurses and doctors are still showing up to work.


Yeah, some people will be in trouble. But it is still up to the people to decide what to do.
Whether you are willing to trade couple more years of your life or not.
Whether you want to kill people with mental health, with cancer, with physical abuse at home, or you aren't willing to do that for couple more years.
Still up to the people


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## james4beach

BC reported their updated numbers.

The Health Minister says that 78% of new cases over the last month were unvaccinated people. I suppose that means that 22% of the new cases were in vaccinated people. But remember that vaccinated people are getting the mildest (least severe) cases.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-july26-1.6117349


----------



## OptsyEagle

We can worry about Doctors and Nurses when this is all over. I imagine money and perhaps a few other things will deal with that but I am not ready to deal with their whining because they are receiving too much business. This is the job they signed up for.

James, if I thought we could get rid of this virus with us all wearing masks and social distancing for some reasonable time frame, I would be all over that one. But we can't. When we had no protection from the virus, it had some basis of reason, but now that we are as vaccinated as we are probably going to get, it is just delaying the last move in this end game. Letting the virus finally kill itself. It can only do that when it runs out of people it can infect and that can only happen when well over 95% of our population is inoculated in one form or another. Masks, social distancing, etc., provides no more benefit, that is anymore then a delay in this process, but cannot in themselves help us avoid it.

Why can people on this board not see this? It is not my preferred option, but it is the only remaining one. Let's not waste 3 safer warmer months trying to get our courage up when we know we have to go there anyway.


----------



## Beaver101

> James, if I thought we could get rid of this virus with us all wearing masks and social distancing for some reasonable time frame, I would be all over that one. But we can't. When we had no protection from the virus, it had some basis of reason, but now that we are as vaccinated as we are probably going to get, it is just delaying the last move in this end game. Letting the virus finally kill itself. It can only do that when it runs out of people it can infect and that can only happen when well over 95% of our population is inoculated in one form or another. Masks, social distancing, etc., provides no more benefit, that is anymore then a delay in this process, but cannot in themselves help us avoid it.
> 
> *Why can people on this board not see this? It is not my preferred option, but it is the only remaining one. Let's not waste 3 safer warmer months trying to get our courage up when we know we have to go there anyway.*


 ... which people? Never mind this board but (start) with the Canadian population. Are you speaking for them? Or do you wish to being the first to go that way? Be my guest. Keep in mind, no one is stopping you as the vaccines, masks and social distancing are all "voluntary".



> We can worry about Doctors and Nurses when this is all over. I imagine money and perhaps a few other things will deal with that *but I am not ready to deal with their whining because they are receiving too much business. This is the job they signed up for.*


 ... you do realize Doctors and Nurses are humans too as with all other professionals? I hope.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Yeah, some people will be in trouble. But it is still up to the people to decide what to do.
> Whether you are willing to trade couple more years of your life or not.
> Whether you want to kill people with mental health, with cancer, with physical abuse at home, or you aren't willing to do that for couple more years.
> Still up to the people


 ... yes it is up to "the people". But when the treating doctors and nurses get fed up (since their pleading whinings don't help), let's see who is going to treat those gasping for air in the ICUs. Never mind about holding up other medical resources for patients in need help for a ruptured appendix, or mental health breakdown, or some form of cancer treatment (just a few examples).

Seems like the 3 years backlog for elective surgeries is an after-thought because some people can't get over the thought on their keyboards about their "rights" being infringed with voluntary vaccinations, masking, social distancing, and inconvenienced restrictions, lockdowns, etc.


----------



## bgc_fan

Maybe we need to play up the fact that Pfizer gives a temporary increase in breast size: Covid 19 coronavirus: Women are claiming 'boobs get bigger' after having Pfizer jab - NZ Herald

Before people get all upset, swollen lymph nodes is a common occurrence when dealing with viral or bacterial infections: Swollen lymph nodes - Symptoms and causes


----------



## OptsyEagle

Look, if an individual wants to wear a mask because they have health issues or are just a little hesitant for now, that is fine. My complaint is complaining about the reduction in restrictions for the rest of us. Our society can only move on from this pandemic when that happens. We need the unvaccinated to remove their masks and stop social distancing now in hopes they can obtain a safer infection during the warmer months. If they wait until their indoor Thanksgiving or Christmas dinners, it will be much more deadly for them and produce a much higher chance of overwhelming our hospitals...and you know they are going to be there and you know they are not going to be wearing a mask during those events.

As for us, the vaccinated, it really does not matter. Do what you want but please stop whining about a Premier who is opening up his province. It has to be done sometime and after the vaccination process winds down is that time. That has always been the plan. Let's not mess it up now because of our fear of the unknown. It was and still is the best plan we have...and if you just give it a little more thought I am positive you will see that. Waiting from this point on has little long term benefit.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... yes it is up to "the people". But when the treating doctors and nurses get fed up (since their pleading whinings don't help), let's see who is going to treat those gasping for air in the ICUs. Never mind about holding up other medical resources for patients in need help for a ruptured appendix, or mental health breakdown, or some form of cancer treatment (just a few examples).
> 
> Seems like the 3 years backlog for elective surgeries is an after-thought because some people can't get over the thought on their keyboards about their "rights" being infringed with voluntary vaccinations, masking, social distancing, and inconvenienced restrictions, lockdowns, etc.


3 year backlog is not an afterthought.
Not for me. I have been screaming about it since the beginning that they are killing people by discouraging health care system use, reducing access to diagnostics, and reducing amount of surgeries such as early cancer removal.
We will see effect of government killing its own people for next decade.
And don't BS about there not being room in hospitals. ICU admissions in 2020 were lowest in past 5 years.

The government killed its own people. Excess deaths due to effect of government actions are already higher than COVID deaths and we will have those excess deaths for another decade


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> 3 year backlog is not an afterthought.
> *Not for me. I have been screaming about it since the beginning that they are killing people by discouraging health care system use, reducing access to diagnostics, and reducing amount of surgeries such as early cancer removal*.
> We will see effect of government killing its own people for next decade.
> And don't BS about there not being room in hospitals. ICU admissions in 2020 were lowest in past 5 years.
> 
> The government killed its own people. Excess deaths due to effect of government actions are already higher than COVID deaths and we will have those excess deaths for another decade


 ... *really? *Then what would you have proposed? Ignore those "Covid-infecteds" and let them die? So much for their rights too.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... *really? *Then what would you have proposed? Ignore those "Covid-infecteds" and let them die? So much for their rights too.


No, I never said that.
I said that discouraging health care for stage 2 cancer patients to the point where during pandemic ICU admissions are lowest in past 5 years is stupid and deadly.
Clearly ICU weren't efficiently used since there were more admission in each of past 5 years than in 2020


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> Look, if an individual wants to wear a mask because they have health issues or are just a little hesitant for now, that is fine. My complaint is complaining about the reduction in restrictions for the rest of us. Our society can only move on from this pandemic when that happens. We need the unvaccinated to remove their masks and stop social distancing now in hopes they can obtain a safer infection during the warmer months. If they wait until their indoor Thanksgiving or Christmas dinners, it will be much more deadly for them and produce a much higher chance of overwhelming our hospitals...and you know they are going to be there and you know they are not going to be wearing a mask during those events.
> 
> As for us, the vaccinated, it really does not matter. Do what you want but please stop whining about a Premier who is opening up his province. It has to be done sometime and after the vaccination process winds down is that time. That has always been the plan. Let's not mess it up now because of our fear of the unknown. It was and still is the best plan we have...and if you just give it a little more thought I am positive you will see that. Waiting from this point on has little long term benefit.


 ... not sure how the discussion about a bogged down health system (short of being devastated) leads to "whinings" about the Premier opening up the province (ON)? Other than the few conspiracists, the general population (aka majority) is in agreement in following the Premier's Reopening plan in Stages. So not sure what's there to mess up. To fear the unknown is just human nature but then there're humanoids on this planet that are fearless.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> No, I never said that.
> I said that discouraging health care for stage 2 cancer patients to the point where during pandemic ICU admissions are lowest in past 5 years is stupid and deadly.
> Clearly ICU weren't efficiently used since there were more admission in each of past 5 years than in 2020


 ...are you the hospital adminstrator, ICU director and/or the doctor-in-charge? If no, then just stick with the keyboard where you get to play it both ways.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Beaver101 said:


> ... not sure how the discussion about a bogged down health system (short of being devastated) leads to "whinings" about the Premier opening up the province (ON)? Other than the few conspiracists, the general population (aka majority) is in agreement in following the Premier's Reopening plan in Stages. So not sure what's there to mess up. To fear the unknown is just human nature but then there're humanoids on this planet that are fearless.


But our health system is not bogged down right now. J4B just made a post that seem to indicate that we should all maintain precautions because our Doctors and Nurses were getting over worked. Obviously most of that was in the past or attributable to other causes then the pandemic.

My point is that if we don't want our unvaccinated and immune compromised being rushed to the hospitals after they enjoy their Thanksgiving and Christmas dinners this year, we need to get them protected as quickly as we can. The unvaccinated obviously are not going to come forward, in enough numbers, to get vaccinated, so they will be getting infected. We should offer them the best opportunity to get their infections now, while we have warmer weather which will produce milder infections, then waiting until the colder months arrive. This will save many of their lives and also reduce the burden on the hospitals to a large degree in the fall.

Everyone seems to be seeing some of the right observations, but most are deriving the wrong actions to take going forward. As I said, many times now, maintaining covid precautions at this ending stage of the vaccination program, just delays these bad things from happening. They cannot help us avoid them.


----------



## sags

I don't know where others live, but in our city the hospitals had "hallway medicine" long before covid.

Patients were being put into closets and ER waits were 8 hours to see a doctor.

Maybe others live in cities where the doctors and nurses are sitting around in the ERs and ICU units drinking coffee and waiting for someone to come in.

That wasn't the reality here before covid and likely isn't today.

If hospitals close down beds because of a lack of staff......it just adds to the wait times in the ERs.

Premier Ford just gave money to Ottawa hospitals to try to help out the situation in that city.

The government has pledged to educate and hire nurses and PSWs but that is going to take years and many will end up not wanting the jobs.

Of course, healthcare isn't a big issue for people until they need it for themselves.


----------



## sags

The virus was spreading inside hospitals, so some people who needed treatments were kept away out of necessity.

I had a virtual call with a specialist and he advised me NOT to go to the hospital unless I was near death.

Hardly a day went by there wasn't a public announcement that this floor or that unit were quarantined due to infection outbreaks.

How soon people forget about situations in other countries the past year.....but it looks like Florida and other States are going to remind everyone.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> BC reported their updated numbers.
> 
> The Health Minister says that 78% of new cases over the last month were unvaccinated people. I suppose that means that 22% of the new cases were in vaccinated people. But remember that vaccinated people are getting the mildest (least severe) cases.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-july26-1.6117349


and remember than number of vaccinated people is much higher than un-vaccinated!
Is 100% is vaccinated, 100% of new cases would be for vaccinated


----------



## gibor365

damian13ster said:


> 3 year backlog is not an afterthought.
> Not for me. I have been screaming about it since the beginning that they are killing people by discouraging health care system use, reducing access to diagnostics, and reducing amount of surgeries such as early cancer removal.
> We will see effect of government killing its own people for next decade.
> And don't BS about there not being room in hospitals. ICU admissions in 2020 were lowest in past 5 years.
> 
> The government killed its own people. Excess deaths due to effect of government actions are already higher than COVID deaths and we will have those excess deaths for another decade


Same here! Even health specialists predict "tsunami of cancer" ... All appointments for specialists were via phone  , this is crap!
And our governments care only about Covid related numbers ....it
s kinda "Covid Olympic games" ! Pure PR! They don't care what would be afterwards ... when "Covid Olympic games" are finished


----------



## sags

You think cancer patients should have gone into hospitals that had continual covid outbreaks for treatments ?

That is not a great idea given they have a weakened immune system already from the cancer and treatments.

I think the Provincial governments did it all wrong from the beginning.

They should have set aside isolated health facilities separately for covid patients only.

Mixing covid patients with regular hospital patients was a bad idea. The virus was bound to spread to different floors and units.

Covid and suspected covid patients should have been kept in the most secure isolation settings, not strolling into the ER saying they don't feel well.

Now the CDC is worried about the Delta variant because it is "different". That was already known by researchers who said it was structured differently.

We now have some Premiers making decisions based on their falling popularity numbers.

They have underestimated the virus from the beginning and still do.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> You think cancer patients should have gone into hospitals that had continual covid outbreaks for treatments ?
> 
> That is not a great idea given they have a weakened immune system already from the cancer and treatments.
> 
> I think the Provincial governments did it all wrong from the beginning.
> 
> They should have set aside isolated health facilities separately for covid patients only.
> 
> Mixing covid patients with regular hospital patients was a bad idea. The virus was bound to spread to different floors and units.
> 
> Covid and suspected covid patients should have been kept in the most secure isolation settings, not strolling into the ER saying they don't feel well.
> 
> Now the CDC is worried about the Delta variant because it is "different". That was already known by researchers who said it was structured differently.
> 
> We now have some Premiers making decisions based on their falling popularity numbers.
> 
> They have underestimated the virus from the beginning and still do.


Look at death rate for stage 4 non-operable cancer patient
Look at death rate for stage 2 operable cancer patient
Look at average death rate from COVID
Look at average death rate for COVID for patients with cancer.

If you actually bothered to look up data, you wouldn't be asking stupid questions.

Yes, cancer patients should have been taken to the hospital, and there is zero doubt about it looking at above data.


----------



## james4beach

Something weird is going on in Las Vegas. My guess is that it's the party and social atmosphere + heavy indoor presence... because everyone is indoors with AC.

Maybe this is showing just how dangerous things can be when everyone is trapped indoors again (like it will be in winter). You can see that cases are surging, *but so are deaths*.


----------



## sags

damian13ster said:


> Look at death rate for stage 4 non-operable cancer patient
> Look at death rate for stage 2 operable cancer patient
> Look at average death rate from COVID
> Look at average death rate for COVID for patients with cancer.
> 
> If you actually bothered to look up data, you wouldn't be asking stupid questions.
> 
> Yes, cancer patients should have been taken to the hospital, and there is zero doubt about it looking at above data.


Taken to the hospital to do what ? Covid was shutting down units and in many hospitals the OR doctors and nurses were required in the ICU and ER units.

You seem to believe the hospitals were closed to patients for no good reason.

The doctors and nurses struggled to keep themselves safe.....let alone compromised patients.

In our hospitals the covid was spreading patient to patient, and some died after being infected while in the hospital for emergency treatment in the ER.

I think you underestimate the virus and how infectious it is.


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## sags

I feel bad for those who get sick and die in Las Vegas, but that is a higher level of stupidity on display right there.


----------



## bgc_fan

Looks like some Houston children are on ventilators due to covid. 








Texas Children's Confirms It Has Some COVID Kids On Ventilators [UPDATED]


It’s not just unvaccinated adults who’ve ditched their face masks who are being hit hard by the Delta COVID-19 variant’s rapid spread. Houston’s Texas Children’s Hospital has also seen a disconcerting uptick in the number of sick kids laid low by Delta in recent weeks. Despite the popular...




www.houstonpress.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The doctors and nurses struggled to keep themselves safe.....let alone compromised patients.


The same nurses that fought for the right to refuse vaccinations and wearing of masks right?
Yeah those ones.

while I agree with many of the trade offs being made, and disagree with others, I don't hold "Dr & Nurses" as some perfect group beyond reproach.

Particularly since those SAME NURSES where the ones saying they shouldn't have to get vaccines or wear masks to stop a communicable disease.

Flu vaccination: Toronto hospitals cannot implement staff “vaccinate or mask” policy, says ruling << sorry crap like this is enough to reject Nurses (ONA specifically) as a legitimate voice.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> Looks like some Houston children are on ventilators due to covid.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Texas Children's Confirms It Has Some COVID Kids On Ventilators [UPDATED]
> 
> 
> It’s not just unvaccinated adults who’ve ditched their face masks who are being hit hard by the Delta COVID-19 variant’s rapid spread. Houston’s Texas Children’s Hospital has also seen a disconcerting uptick in the number of sick kids laid low by Delta in recent weeks. Despite the popular...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.houstonpress.com


 ... it's just the "flu" according to some, including the few (a handful) on this forum.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> The same nurses that fought for the right to refuse vaccinations and wearing of masks right?
> Yeah those ones.
> 
> while I agree with many of the trade offs being made, and disagree with others, I don't hold "Dr & Nurses" as some perfect group beyond reproach.
> 
> Particularly since those SAME NURSES where the ones saying they shouldn't have to get vaccines or wear masks to stop a communicable disease.
> 
> Flu vaccination: Toronto hospitals cannot implement staff “vaccinate or mask” policy, says ruling << sorry crap like this is enough to reject Nurses (ONA specifically) as a legitimate voice.


 ... that article is from "2018" for the annual "flu". Today is July 28, 2021, more than a year + in a pandemic where "millions have died" from the Covid19 virus, A,B,D,G etc. variants.

Try picking a more up to date article such as recent one I posted (somewhere) that one major hospital (UHN) in TO requires all its medical professionals to be either fully vaccinated or be Covid-free prior reporting to work. Makes sense.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Taken to the hospital to do what ? Covid was shutting down units and in many hospitals the OR doctors and nurses were required in the ICU and ER units.
> 
> You seem to believe the hospitals were closed to patients for no good reason.
> 
> The doctors and nurses struggled to keep themselves safe.....let alone compromised patients.
> 
> In our hospitals the covid was spreading patient to patient, and some died after being infected while in the hospital for emergency treatment in the ER.
> 
> I think you underestimate the virus and how infectious it is.


No, COVID wasn't shutting units. Administration was shutting down units.
Yes, looking at ICU numbers, hospitals were closed for no good reason.
It cost thousands of Canadians their lives and will cost tens of thousands of Canadians more lives.
Unfortunately cancer isn't 'sexy' so no one cares about cancer patients.

I don't underestimate the infectiousness of the virus at all. Just multiple orders of magnitude less deadly for cancer patients than not treating the cancer.
Have you looked up the statistics I mentioned or are you talking out of your *** without actual data?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... that article is from "2018" for the annual "flu". Today is July 28, 2021, more than a year + in a pandemic where "millions have died" from the Covid19 virus, A,B,D,G etc. variants.
> 
> Try picking a more up to date article such as recent one I posted (somewhere) that one major hospital (UHN) in TO requires all its medical professionals to be either fully vaccinated or be Covid-free prior reporting to work. Makes sense.


You're missing the point.
When they argued against a vaccine that prevents millions of deaths, they lost their credibility.

I think everyone should be vaccinated, however it's very tricky on if the government or employers should be allowed to force a potentially lethal medical treatment on people.
The nurses themselves argued, and won, that the government and employers (hospitals) do not have the authority to do so.
Quick question for you, at what point would forcing a COVID19 vaccine be "wrong". What death rate?
1 in 10? 1 in 100, 1000, 10k, 100k one in a million?

What about serious life changing side effects? How much risk should someone have to take as a condition of employment?
I bet you won't answer what the appropriate risk level is.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> You're missing the point.


 ... no, you're using an outdated article to make your point.


> When they argued against a vaccine that prevents millions of deaths, they lost their credibility.


 ... agree with this in the context of Covid. But then there're those who argue that was just the "flu" with low death rates so that "shot(vaccine?)" was not critical. If the general population ain't gonna to vaccinate for the flu, how are you going to argue about getting these medical professionals to vaccinate? 



> I think everyone should be vaccinated, however it's very tricky on if the government or employers should be allowed to force a potentially lethal medical treatment on people.
> The nurses themselves argued, and won, that the government and employers (hospitals) do not have the authority to do so.


 ... again, that was for the flu. Now we're talking about Covid, not the flu virus. Of course, the government/employers don't have the authority to do it because the vaccine is "voluntary". And vaccination hasn't been made into law.



> Quick question for you, at what point would forcing a COVID19 vaccine be "wrong". What death rate?
> 1 in 10? 1 in 100, 1000, 10k, 100k one in a million?
> 
> What about serious life changing side effects? How much risk should someone have to take as a condition of employment?
> I bet you won't answer what the appropriate risk level is.


 ... that's a mouthful of questions and do you have the answers? I'll let you have the first shot before I reply.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... no, you're using an outdated article to make your point.


No I'm using a recent case where the Nurses argued against mandatory vaccinations.



> ... that's a mouthful of questions and do you have the answers? I'll let you have the first shot before I reply.


I do not think that the government should be permitted to force a medical procedure on a person for the benefit of a third party. Canadian courts have been pretty consistent on this.
I do not think the government should be permitted to force a medical procedure on a person for "their own good", unless there is an imminent and acute threat to their life.

I'll be really clear, I do not think that it is right to force anyone to undergo a potentially lethal medical intervention on a person?
Your answer so far seems to suggest you think it is okay, but why, and how risky is ok?


----------



## sags

My wife was a nurse and they were not forced to take vaccinations. If there is an outbreak in the hospital they were not allowed to come to work.

That is the consequence of their decision. Everyone has rights.......including fellow workers and especially patients.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> No I'm using a recent case where the Nurses argued against mandatory vaccinations.


 ... opening up your link showed the article was from 2018 so I'm not sure how "recent" that is. For certain, that was before Covid.



> I do not think that the government should be permitted to force a medical procedure on a person for the benefit of a third party. Canadian courts have been pretty consistent on this.


 ... who is the 3rd party are you referring to? I hope it's not the rest of the population as what are their rights?



> I do not think the government should be permitted to force a medical procedure on a person for "their own good", unless there is an imminent and acute threat to their life.
> 
> I'll be really clear, I do not think that it is right to force anyone to undergo a potentially lethal medical intervention on a person?


 ... I don't disagree with this on a case-by-case basis but when you have 1 person (or a few) versus a threat to millions of other people, what dictates? 



> Your answer so far seems to suggest you think it is okay, but why, and how risky is ok?


 ... see above. There is no right or wrong answer given by you or I.

As for your earlier analogy / question:



> How much risk should someone have to take as a condition of employment?
> I bet you won't answer what the appropriate risk level is.


 . .. if you're serious about the answer to your question, then as a manager yourself, you should know the clear answer. This is no different from your employer's risk assessment on who they hire ,retain or fire ... in "real" life.


----------



## sags

I find the arguments of the un-vaccinated to be similar to those of smokers years ago.

They wanted to exercise their right to use a legal product inside bars and restaurants.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I find the arguments of the un-vaccinated to be similar to those of smokers years ago.
> 
> They wanted to exercise their right to use a legal product inside bars and restaurants.


Huh?
Smokers wanted to pollute the air with impunty.
the "un-vaccinated" don't want to risk their lives on this medical procedure.

I don't see any similarity in their motives.


----------



## sags

The un-vaccinated want to subject everyone to the possibility of a virus far more deadly than tobacco smoke.

Businesses want the government to mandate mask wearing or they will institute it themselves. Some have already said they will.

Vaccinated people can enter with proof........everyone else sits outside on the patio.

As one restaurant owner said.........I have to accommodate the majority of people to stay in business.

Businesses can restrict entry but public buildings can't, so the un-vaccinated can go to the library and get a cheese sandwich from the vending machine.

Win...win scenario. The business remains open and the library makes a little cash from the sales of cheese sandwiches.

I love it when a plan comes together so well.


----------



## damian13ster

Vaccinations are only 40% effective as per latest Israeli study that was posted here.
That is likely to drop even further with subsequent variants.
Majority of vaccinated are subjecting everyone to the possibility of a virus as well.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The un-vaccinated want to subject everyone to the possibility of a virus far more deadly than tobacco smoke.


No they don't.
They simply don't want to risk their lives on potentially fatal medical intervention.

Remember, many governments have banned certain vaccines because they are more dangerous than COVID.

So is the government now anti-vaxxer? Or is it simply a question of appropriate risk trade offs, and who's taking the risk.
If you're vaccinated, the risk to you is very low, so what's the problem?

I'm not going to demand people risk their lives on a vaccine. I think the risk is low, I think they should, but will I use the power of the government and kill a few people through mandatory vaccinations? Absolutely not.
It is VERY important to note that COVID19 vaccines have killed people. Do you feel comfortable having the government mandate lethal injections that will "only kill a few people".

Myself I think it's wrong, no matter how low the risk.

And again, I think the risk is so low everyone should get vaccinated. I even stated the risk of the AZ vaccine was laughably low and I personally got that vaccine. 
The risk is low, you should get vaccinated, but the government shouldn't be forcing people to undergo a medical procedure.


----------



## MrMatt

I think this is an interesting situation.
I understand and accept the argument of those who do not want the COVID, vaccines.
There is a risk, and they dont' feel comfortable getting it.
I respect that argument. I support their right NOT to get a medical procedure without their consent. Or to be coerced into a medical procedure.

However it's important to note that I also think the anti vaxxers who shut down the AZ vaccine were also wrong.
I think their logic boils down to ignorance, and officials simply reacting to public pressure.
I again disagree with them too.

It's actually possible to disagree with someones decision, yet recognize that they have a right to do so.

I think anyone who pushes mandatory vaccinations is ignoring human rights.
I can accept you think it's a reasonable infringement, but again, you're wrong, and the courts have been pretty strong on this.
Your body, your choice, and nobody should be coerced into an unwanted medical procedure.


----------



## sags

We already have mandatory vaccinations for school kids or they can't attend.

People don't have to get vaccinated. They just won't be able to go anywhere. That is their choice.

All of a sudden you don't want people to accept responsibility for their actions. I thought that is what you Conservatives are all about.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Nobody has died from the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.
> 
> We already have mandatory vaccinations for school kids or they can't attend.


Wrong.









23 die in Norway after receiving Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine: officials


Twenty-three people died in Norway within days of receiving their first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, with 13 of those deaths — all nursing home patients — apparently related to the side effects of the shots, health officials said.




www.healthleadersmedia.com












Michigan boy dies 3 days after getting Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, CDC is investigating


The CDC is investigating the case of a 13-year-old Saginaw County boy who died three days after getting his second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.



www.freep.com












Ukraine investigates cause of man's death after vaccine shot


Ukraine's health ministry is investigating why a 47-year-old man died four hours after he received a shot of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, the ministry said late on Friday.




www.ctvnews.ca












Covid: Three deaths in Scotland linked to vaccine


The deaths occurred before 30 April, when almost three million people had received at least a first dose.



www.bbc.com












Doctor’s Death After Covid Vaccine Is Being Investigated (Published 2021)


A Florida physician developed an unusual blood disorder shortly after he received the Pfizer vaccine. It is not yet known if the shot is linked to the illness.




www.nytimes.com












Kansas woman’s obituary claims she died from reaction to COVID-19 vaccine


An investigation is underway into whether an Atchison County woman died from the COVID-19 vaccine.




www.kwch.com












60-Year-Old Father Dies After Receiving Second Dose Of Pfizer Vaccine


A 60-year-old Orange County man died after receiving a second dose of the coronavirus vaccine. Now investigators are trying to determine if the vaccination played any role in his death.




losangeles.cbslocal.com


----------



## sags

None proven related to the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.

The worst case is some mild inflammation that is temporary.

Even if it were true, the risk of dying of Covid is far greater.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> None proven related to the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.
> 
> The worst case is some mild inflammation that is temporary.


"
Twenty-three people died in Norway within days of receiving their first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, with 13 of those deaths — all nursing home patients — apparently related to the side effects of the shots, health officials said.
FULL STORY
"
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating the death of a 13-year-old boy who died days after getting his second dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine in Michigan, according to reports. "
Of course results of investigation aren't released yet. We all know it is very common though for 13 year olds to die in their sleep with no underlying conditions, right?


Underlying cause officially determined to be Pfizer vaccine:
Three "extremely rare" deaths in Scotland have been linked to adverse effects from Covid-19 vaccines.
National Records of Scotland (NRS) said the effects had been recorded as the "underlying cause" in each of the three deaths, which were before 30 April.



You really enjoy covering your eyes when faced with facts that don't adhere to your predetermined views.



You can discuss risk vs benefits for specific age groups an specific health conditions all you want.
By saying that Pfizer and/or Moderna vaccines don't sometimes result in death you are straight up lying though.


----------



## Beaver101

New York to require state employees to get vaccines, or get tested



> ...
> _Cuomo said COVID-19 vaccines would be mandatory for “patient-facing” workers at state-owned hospitals and veterans homes. Those employees would not be able to avoid inoculations by undergoing weekly virus testing. The state runs large hospitals in Syracuse and New York City and on Long Island. ._..


 ... don't vax, then it's a question of to work or not to work. Must be fun getting tested weekly just to go to work ... lol.

In case someone says 'well, that's the USA' (which is following the same policy as the state of Texas), Ontario, Canada has already set the policy a few days with an early announcement: 

UHN will require that unvaccinated employees test negative for COVID-19 before arriving at work


----------



## sags

There will be some places that cater to the un-vaccinated.


----------



## Beaver101

*^ *Mar-a-Lago resort in West Palm Beach, Florida to start off with.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> We already have mandatory vaccinations for school kids or they can't attend.


Where?
They aren't mandatory in Ontario, and I'm not aware of any province where they are mandatory.

If they were actually mandatory in Ontario, I am sure they would have used that to force nurses to take their vaccines when they WON their anti-vaxxer ruling.



> People don't have to get vaccinated. They just won't be able to go anywhere. That is their choice.


We have mobility rights in Canada.
I know Liberals hate it, but human rights should be non negotiable.



> All of a sudden you don't want people to accept responsibility for their actions. I thought that is what you Conservatives are all about.


No such thing, I absolutely do want people to accept responsibility for their actions.
I'm not really a Conservative, CPC & PC's just happen to be the most liberal parties in Canada right now.


What I find most interesting in this debate is how the authoritarians don't seem to care about human rights. That's the problem, human rights SHOULD be paramount.


----------



## sags

The deaths in Scotland were linked to the AZ vaccine.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> The deaths in Scotland were linked to the AZ vaccine.


You are right. Why quiet about all the others?
Doesn't fit your made-up narrative?

The fact is that vaccines do cause death in some cases.
Forcing people to get possibly lethal injection to go to restaurant is a sick idea from a twisted mind


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> You are right. Why quiet about all the others?
> Doesn't fit your made-up narrative?
> 
> The fact is that vaccines do cause death in some cases.
> Forcing people to get possibly lethal injection to go to restaurant is a sick idea from a twisted mind


The risk is extremely low, and I think it's worth it.

However to FORCE someone is just an insane violation of human rights. The fact that the leftists here don't see the problem is just astonishing.

For those of you who apparently don't know, Canada has a pretty shitty history regarding forced medical procedures.
Here's something that I'd bet "isn't taught in schools"








Indigenous women still forced, coerced into sterilization: Senate report | Globalnews.ca


Women interviewed for the report were coercively sterilized between 2005 and 2010. The committee says it is aware of a case of forced sterilization as recent as 2019.




globalnews.ca






This is why human rights respecting liberals get called "Conservative".


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> The risk is extremely low, and I think it's worth it.
> 
> However to FORCE someone is just an insane violation of human rights. The fact that the leftists here don't see the problem is just astonishing.
> 
> For those of you who apparently don't know, Canada has a pretty shitty history regarding forced medical procedures.
> Here's something that I'd bet "isn't taught in schools"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Indigenous women still forced, coerced into sterilization: Senate report | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Women interviewed for the report were coercively sterilized between 2005 and 2010. The committee says it is aware of a case of forced sterilization as recent as 2019.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is why human rights respecting liberals get called "Conservative".


Of course. Risk is low. I believe for majority of causes risk of problems from vaccine is lower than Risk from COVID.
There are cases in which risk of problems from vaccine is higher than risk from COVID.
And there are documented deaths from each vaccine available.
That's why I fully agree with you - mandating or coercing something like that is reprehensible, vile, and sick.


And yes, forced sterilization of indigenous women was also considered to be an action for 'common good'. Sick and vile


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> "
> Twenty-three people died in Norway within days of receiving their first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, with 13 of those deaths — all nursing home patients — apparently related to the side effects of the shots, health officials said.
> FULL STORY
> "
> "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating the death of a 13-year-old boy who died days after getting his second dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine in Michigan, according to reports. "
> Of course results of investigation aren't released yet. We all know it is very common though for 13 year olds to die in their sleep with no underlying conditions, right?
> 
> 
> Underlying cause officially determined to be Pfizer vaccine:
> Three "extremely rare" deaths in Scotland have been linked to adverse effects from Covid-19 vaccines.
> National Records of Scotland (NRS) said the effects had been recorded as the "underlying cause" in each of the three deaths, which were before 30 April.
> 
> 
> 
> You really enjoy covering your eyes when faced with facts that don't adhere to your predetermined views.
> 
> 
> 
> You can discuss risk vs benefits for specific age groups an specific health conditions all you want.
> By saying that Pfizer and/or Moderna vaccines don't sometimes result in death you are straight up lying though.


Not sure why you would want to link to a dodgy site like NY Post where there are plenty of MSM coverage:








Norway adjusts advice after vaccine deaths but isn't alarmed


COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Norwegian officials have adjusted their advice on who gets the COVID-19 vaccine in light of a small number of deaths in older people, leaving it up to each doctor to consider who should be vaccinated...




apnews.com





Or directly from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health website: International interest about deaths following coronavirus vaccination. 
Unfortunately, the 13 deaths were of a particular characteristic, namely over 80 and likely terminally ill: 
_The Norwegian government said the country’s vaccination program is initially targeting the most vulnerable — the elderly and those in nursing homes — and "a high proportion" of the latter were very frail or terminally ill and already very near the end of their lives._

Here's an updated report from Norway regarding side-effects. Out of a total of 4,747,038 administered does, there were 198 reports of death, although not necessarily related. But that gives a 0.0042% of death. Pretty minuscule, or pretty close to 0.


https://legemiddelverket.no/Documents/English/Covid-19/20210722%20Reported%20suspected%20adverse%20reactions%20coronavirus%20vaccines.pdf



As for other reports, I don't doubt them, but when millions of doses are being administered, there is always some chance of death. But on magnitudes lower than when you get covid.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> Not sure why you would want to link to a dodgy site like NY Post where there are plenty of MSM coverage:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Norway adjusts advice after vaccine deaths but isn't alarmed
> 
> 
> COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Norwegian officials have adjusted their advice on who gets the COVID-19 vaccine in light of a small number of deaths in older people, leaving it up to each doctor to consider who should be vaccinated...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Or directly from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health website: International interest about deaths following coronavirus vaccination.
> Unfortunately, the 13 deaths were of a particular characteristic, namely over 80 and likely terminally ill:
> _The Norwegian government said the country’s vaccination program is initially targeting the most vulnerable — the elderly and those in nursing homes — and "a high proportion" of the latter were very frail or terminally ill and already very near the end of their lives._
> 
> Here's an updated report from Norway regarding side-effects. Out of a total of 4,747,038 administered does, there were 198 reports of death, although not necessarily related. But that gives a 0.0042% of death. Pretty minuscule, or pretty close to 0.
> 
> 
> https://legemiddelverket.no/Documents/English/Covid-19/20210722%20Reported%20suspected%20adverse%20reactions%20coronavirus%20vaccines.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> As for other reports, I don't doubt them, but when millions of doses are being administered, there is always some chance of death. But on magnitudes lower than when you get covid.


What you see is a response to sags that there are no deaths from Pfizer/Moderna.
I am not arguing that risk from vaccine is higher than risk of COVID for majority of population. I don't believe that is the case and I am personally vaccinated.
The response was strictly to his statement that there are no deaths from Pfizer/Moderna.
Glad we agree that his statement is a blatant lie.


----------



## james4beach

BC has declared an outbreak in the Okanagan / Kelowna

*Masks are now required again indoors*.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-interior-covid-cases-update-1.6121240


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The deaths in Scotland were linked to the AZ vaccine.


Irrelevant.

Governments have and continue to inject the AZ vaccine.
The reality is that COVID19 vaccines have killed people, and it is not acceptable to force people to take this risk.

I think everyone here is pro vaccination, we just recognize the right of people to refuse a medical intervention.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> I think everyone here is pro vaccination, we just recognize the right of people to refuse a medical intervention.


We do have that right. You might recall MrMatt that you and I were debating AZ before. I did my own analysis of it and said that I don't like the risk/reward equation, I thought it was too risky (at my age) so I did not pursue the AZ shot even when it was available.

Then when I was able to get MRNA, I evaluate the risk/reward and decided they are safe, and worth taking. But different people arrive at different conclusions -- as you and I did on the AZ issue a few months ago.


----------



## james4beach

Thank goodness the Canadian government was smart enough to buy a large portfolio of vaccinations, to give us some choice. It's diversification of risk.

Excellent work by the federal government. We are overflowing with vaccines now, due to the hard work of the federal government.

So many other countries are struggling to get their doses. I have friends in Sweden who still can't get their second shots for the foreseeable future. And a couple friends in Asia, good luck. Not much vaccine to be found in many countries.

We are very lucky here.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> We do have that right. You might recall MrMatt that you and I were debating AZ before. I did my own analysis of it and said that I don't like the risk/reward equation, I thought it was too risky (at my age) so I did not pursue the AZ shot even when it was available.
> 
> Then when I was able to get MRNA, I evaluate the risk/reward and decided they are safe, and worth taking. But different people arrive at different conclusions -- as you and I did on the AZ issue a few months ago.


Yes, absolutely. That's why I support the right of people to choose neither vaccine.

Even though I think the vast majority should get one today, just like I thought (and still think) that people should get AZ if it is available. I support your right to not vaccinate.
Though since Pfizer/Moderna appear more effective against Delta, maybe you should prefer them for that reason, but I think safey isn't a real issue for most people.

So yes, I believe in the right not to be vaccinated, even if I think they're wrong.
Just like I believe in free speech, even when I think you're wrong.


----------



## damian13ster

UK just announced they will allow vaccinated people from USA and EU to avoid quarantine on arrival.
Canadians will still have to quarantine


Also:








Alberta to adjust COVID-19 masking, isolation, testing rules over next month | Globalnews.ca


Starting Thursday, close contacts will no longer be notified of exposure by contact tracers nor will they be legally required to isolate — although it still recommended.




globalnews.ca




Alberta easing more restrictions tomorrow, and starting August 16 there will be no more asymptomatic testing


----------



## sags

Experts say the next wave will be the worst yet for Alberta. The current infection rate is 1.5

The outbreaks from the Calgary Stampede have already started and the doctors say it won't peak until mid-August.

Meanwhile there is a nursing shortage and Alberta wants to cut their wages.

Premier Kenney is living in the land of make believe.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Experts say the next wave will be the worst yet for Alberta. The current infection rate is 1.5
> 
> The outbreaks from the Calgary Stampede have already started and the doctors say it won't peak until mid-August.
> 
> Meanwhile there is a nursing shortage and Alberta wants to cut their wages.
> 
> Premier Kenney is living in the land of make believe.


Experts have been wrong every single time they tried to predict numbers. Every single time, with no exception, and at least by order of 3-4 times. 
Once they stop testing asymptomatic then the curve will be completely flat. Should have done that starting tomorrow, but August 16 is not bad either


----------



## james4beach

I would like to ask this forum's advice. I'm going to fly and visit my parents.

Both my parents (in their 70s) and I are fully vaccinated with MRNA vaccines. They DO have some health concerns, just routine stuff that people their age have but mostly in good health. I will be wearing a medical grade KN95 mask on the flight, and then arriving into an apartment that's in the same building as my parents -- a different space.

My current thought is that upon arriving, other than saying "hi" from the doorway, I will stay away from them for 48 hours just in case I develop any symptoms. If I feel fine after 48 hours, then I plan to be indoors with them, eat meals together, help them fix things in the house... basically very close contact, almost entirely in the same air space.

What do you think? Is this too cautions? Not cautious enough? I really can't tell.

I also plan to visit other friends (my age) in the city, all of them also fully vaccinated, but still would wait 48 hours after arriving before I see anyone.


----------



## damian13ster

Try getting couple of those quick tests and use them every couple of days. 
Wash your hands right after entering the apartment before touching anything.

That's what I did when visiting my grandparents and worked great.


----------



## james4beach

damian13ster said:


> Try getting couple of those quick tests and use them every couple of days.


Where do you get these? I have no idea how to get a COVID test.

I've never had to have a test before. Kind of amazing when I think about how I haven't really had any cold/flu symptoms for about 15 months now. Definitely a 'first' in my life.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I would like to ask this forum's advice. I'm going to fly and visit my parents.
> 
> Both my parents (in their 70s) and I are fully vaccinated with MRNA vaccines. They DO have some health concerns, just routine stuff that people their age have but mostly in good health. I will be wearing a medical grade KN95 mask on the flight, and then arriving into an apartment that's in the same building as my parents -- a different space.
> 
> My current thought is that upon arriving, other than saying "hi" from the doorway, I will stay away from them for 48 hours just in case I develop any symptoms. If I feel fine after 48 hours, then I plan to be indoors with them, eat meals together, help them fix things in the house... basically very close contact, almost entirely in the same air space.
> 
> What do you think? Is this too cautions? Not cautious enough? I really can't tell.
> 
> I also plan to visit other friends (my age) in the city, all of them also fully vaccinated, but still would wait 48 hours after arriving before I see anyone.


Cautious to reasonable, I know a couple in their late 70's, reasonably healthy.
They had 1 shot, got COVID, almost died. So I think a bit of post travel isolation is reasonably cautious.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Cautious to reasonable, I know a couple in their late 70's, reasonably healthy.
> They had 1 shot, got COVID, almost died. So I think a bit of post travel isolation is reasonably cautious.


Wow, thanks for sharing that. Do you have a rough idea of how many days after arrival make sense, to isolate?

And I can do a "soft" version of isolation by still interacting with my parents, but keeping a mask on and not getting too close. They always keep windows open so thankfully there will be a lot of ventilation in their home. If I keep a mask on and some distance, I think risk will be reduced significantly.

Maybe it makes sense to do that for ~ 5 days before I switch to full / close / unmasked interaction.


----------



## NewbieInvestor88

MrMatt said:


> Irrelevant.
> 
> Governments have and continue to inject the AZ vaccine.
> The reality is that COVID19 vaccines have killed people, and it is not acceptable to force people to take this risk.
> 
> I think everyone here is pro vaccination, we just recognize the right of people to refuse a medical intervention.


Indeed. One thing that the people in the US are struggling with is; yes, they have the right to do whatever they want but society has a right to be healthy.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Wow, thanks for sharing that. Do you have a rough idea of how many days after arrival make sense, to isolate?
> 
> And I can do a "soft" version of isolation by still interacting with my parents, but keeping a mask on and not getting too close. They always keep windows open so thankfully there will be a lot of ventilation in their home. If I keep a mask on and some distance, I think risk will be reduced significantly.
> 
> Maybe it makes sense to do that for ~ 5 days before I switch to full / close / unmasked interaction.


In that specific case, I think they got it from their unvaccinated grandchildren who were active throughout COVID.

In my completely ignorant, not a doctor opinion.
It's a personal risk balance, depending on what you were exposed to in your travel.
The conservative answer is isolate for the incubation period and get a negative test.
You could just take a shower and hope you didn't catch it.

Myself I'm not travelling by plane.


----------



## Beaver101

NewbieInvestor88 said:


> Indeed. One thing that the people in the US are struggling with is; *yes, they have the right to do whatever they want but society has a right to be healthy.*


 ... include Canada as well.


----------



## MrMatt

NewbieInvestor88 said:


> Indeed. One thing that the people in the US are struggling with is; yes, they have the right to do whatever they want but society has a right to be healthy.


Of course, but you shouldn't be allowed to randomly execute innocent people to protect your "right to be healthy".

I think you should be allowed reasonable means to protect yourself, but applying lethal force at every interaction isn't acceptable.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> In that specific case, I think they got it from their unvaccinated grandchildren who were active throughout COVID.
> 
> In my completely ignorant, not a doctor opinion.
> *It's a personal risk balance, depending on what you were exposed to in your travel.
> The conservative answer is isolate for the incubation period and get a negative test. *
> You could just take a shower and hope you didn't catch it.


 ... I agree with this (bolded) part to reduce your risk (considerably) from catching it (and then spreading it). As for testing for the purpose of travelling, you will have to do some research. If I recall correctly, I think the big chain pharmacies (eg. SDM) is able to do such a test, for a price of course. 



> Myself I'm not travelling by plane.


 ... VIA Rail One would be (very) nice (though not sure how the seating arrangements different from a plane). And then there's driving but how long is that going to take J4B going from Vancouver to Winnipeg?

My opinion: I think this is a good time to visit home before the "next" (potential) wave hits. The better late than never.


----------



## Money172375

Albertans who test positive for COVID-19 will no longer be required to enter isolation starting in less than three weeks, the province's chief medical officer of health said Wednesday.

While a recent rise in COVID-19 cases has caused some anxiety, increasing vaccination rates are limiting the threat of severe outcomes and strains on the health-care system, Dr. Deena Hinshaw said during a news conference. 

As a result, the province will start making COVID-19 protocols similar to those of the flu and other communicable diseases.


and I believe Alb. has the lowest vaccinate rates in the country……time to watch and learn to see what happens….


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Of course, but *you shouldn't be allowed to randomly execute innocent people* to protect your "right to be healthy".
> 
> I think you should be allowed reasonable means to protect yourself, but a*pplying lethal force at every interaction isn't acceptable.*


 ... aren't you being overly dramatic here?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... aren't you being overly dramatic here?


Not really.
They pulled the AZ vaccine when it was killing less than 1 in 100k as "too risky"

We're not clear on how many people the mRNA vaccine kills, or what the long term risks are.

The vast majority of Canadians are vaccinated, and unlikely to die even if they get COVID19.

What risk of death is appropriate to force on people who do not want to take a vaccine?
I'm literally asking for a number.
If the chance of the vaccine killing them is 1 in 100k, (like some estimated for AZ, which I personally took), do you think it is appropriate to force people to undergo that risk of death?
I do not.
Not at 1 in 100k, not at 1 in 1 million.
But I ask you, what risk is acceptable to force on someone? It's interesting, all the people who claim to want mandatory vaccines, nobody has said what risk of death is acceptable to them.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Not really.
> They pulled the AZ vaccine when it was killing less than 1 in 100k as "too risky"
> 
> We're not clear on how many people the mRNA vaccine kills, or what the long term risks are.
> 
> The vast majority of Canadians are vaccinated, and unlikely to die even if they get COVID19.
> 
> What risk of death is appropriate to force on people who do not want to take a vaccine?
> I'm literally asking for a number.
> If the chance of the vaccine killing them is 1 in 100k, (like some estimated for AZ, which I personally took), do you think it is appropriate to force people to undergo that risk of death?
> I do not.
> Not at 1 in 100k, not at 1 in 1 million.
> But I ask you, what risk is acceptable to force on someone? It's interesting, all the people who claim to want mandatory vaccines, nobody has said what risk of death is acceptable to them.


 ... you know you're funny (for lack of a better term) with all the contradictions in your post. Then I should know better that's your usual modus operandus than to respond but then I'm not that smart so here goes.

First of all, what "mandatory" vaccine are your talking about? AZ, Pfizer, Moderna, flu shot, etc.? Still voluntary as far as I'm aware. 

You don't seem to realize that the question you're asking "what risk of death is appropriate to force on people who do not want to take a vaccine?" borders on an ethical one that no-one in the general population (or maybe just yourself/your opinion of "I do not") can give you a definite answer. 

If the illegitimate anti-vaxxers (ie. those without a medical reason for not taking the jab) are sternly in the belief of "their rights" (of course, societal rights are secondary), or the vaxs will have ill effects long term, or that Jesus Vax is out to get them, then be prepared for the inconveniences (never mind about the death risk whilst the pandemic is still on) that'll come with it. Get tested for work, get quarantined for travelling, sit outside for dining, etc.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... you know you're funny (for lack of a better term) with all the contradictions in your post. Then I should know better that's your usual modus operandus than to respond but then I'm not that smart so here goes.
> 
> First of all, what "mandatory" vaccine are your talking about? AZ, Pfizer, Moderna, flu shot, etc.? Still voluntary as far as I'm aware.
> 
> You don't seem to realize that the question you're asking "what risk of death is appropriate to force on people who do not want to take a vaccine?" borders on an ethical one that no-one in the general population (or maybe just yourself/your opinion of "I do not") can give you a definite answer. If the illegitimate anti-vaxxers (ie. those without a medical reason for not taking the jab) are sternly in the belief of "their rights" (of course, societal rights are secondary), or the vaxs will have ill effects long term, or that Jesus Vax is out to get them, then be prepared for the inconveniences (never mind about the death risk whilst the pandemic is still on) that'll come with it. Get tested for work, get quarantined for travelling, sit outside for dining, etc.


I'm not aware of any contradictions in my position here. I think almost everyone should be vaccinated, I think it's a human rights violation to force vaccinations.

My question for those who think there SHOULD be a mandatory vaccine is what level of risk do they think is acceptable. I have the same position on all vaccines.

It absolutely is an ethical problem, it's a fundamental human rights issue.
Not wanting to risk death or serious side effects is a legitimate reason to refuse the vaccine.

Heck, I even complained about the anti-vaxxers who pulled AZ for no good reason.
It's possible to recognize another opinion, while disagreeing. I don't see any contradictions in my posts, please point them out


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I'm not aware of any contradictions in my position here. I think almost everyone should be vaccinated, I think it's a human rights violation to force vaccinations.


 ... force vaccinations on what? Covid or you going back on history on forced sterilization? 



> My question for those who think there SHOULD be a mandatory vaccine is what level of risk do they think is acceptable.


 ... maybe you should be asking this question of the lawmakers in this country. Even then I don't think they have an answer for you. And the reality is you're living in the answer - just refer back to your "employment" analogy in an earlier post.



> It absolutely is an ethical problem, it's a fundamental human rights issue.
> Not wanting to risk death or serious side effects is a legitimate reason to refuse the vaccine.


 ... and so does everyone else, including those who don't want to be infected by anti-vaxxers.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... and so does everyone else, including those who don't want to be infected by anti-vaxxers.


I don't think you've thought how dangerous this position is.

You think that your safety is so much more important than other people, you think it's okay to force a medical procedure on other people, even to the point of killing them?
Not only that, you can't even come up with a number of how many people it is okay to kill?

Wow, that's a level of psychopathy and narcissism that I can't comprehend.

I've got an answer.
You shouldn't be forcing medical procedures on people without their consent.


----------



## damian13ster

james4beach said:


> Where do you get these? I have no idea how to get a COVID test.
> 
> I've never had to have a test before. Kind of amazing when I think about how I haven't really had any cold/flu symptoms for about 15 months now. Definitely a 'first' in my life.


Not sure where to buy them in Canada tbh. Simply got them from pharmacy in Poland.

Here is quick google search result:








Buy Rapid COVID Tests for COVID-19 - Rapid Test & Trace Canada


Get Rapid Testing for COVID-19 and improve your workplace safety & continuity during the pandemic. Contact Rapid Test & Trace Canada today!




rapidtestandtrace.ca





You can also get them done at shoppers drug mart, or at least you could


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I don't think you've thought how dangerous this position is.
> 
> You think that your safety is so much more important than other people, you think it's okay to force a medical procedure on other people, even to the point of killing them?
> Not only that, you can't even come up with a number of how many people it is okay to kill?
> 
> Wow, that's a level of psychopathy and narcissism that I can't comprehend.


 ... that's your typical trolling implication. Who's forcing who? And you think anti-vaxxers are the only one living in this world that you think you're "speaking for"?



> I've got an answer.
> You shouldn't be forcing medical procedures on people without their consent.


 ... of course, you have the answer and yet don't have an answer for the "employment" analogy that "you came up with.* " Hypocritical much? *


----------



## andrewf

I don't think any rapid tests are approved for home use in Canada. Unfortunate, and I think the wrong call.


----------



## james4beach

I was at a crowded beach area this afternoon and saw two women walking. Here's the actual conversation.


Me: Are you ladies going to stick around until sunset?

Them: No, we're too jet lagged

Me: Oh where did you fly in from?

*Them: We just arrived from Hong Kong a couple of hours ago. We sneaked out of our quarantine, ha ha!*


There are tourists _everywhere_ here. All of this while BC covid cases are skyrocketing.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I was at a crowded beach area this afternoon and saw two women walking. Here's the actual conversation.
> 
> 
> Me: Are you ladies going to stick around until sunset?
> 
> Them: No, we're too jet lagged
> 
> Me: Oh where did you fly in from?
> 
> *Them: We just arrived from Hong Kong a couple of hours ago. We sneaked out of our quarantine, ha ha!*
> 
> 
> There are tourists _everywhere_ here. All of this while BC covid cases are skyrocketing.


Yup, I've been whining for over a year, Trudeau never closed the border, and never enforced the quarantine.
Now it's too late, we have COVID fatigue and people are over it.


----------



## sags

Garth Turner posted an excellent summation of the current status with the covid situation.






On cowardice — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate







www.greaterfool.ca


----------



## zinfit

Let's not get our shorts tied in knots over this Delta variant. Yes the UK had a fair sized run up but the numbers are now declining rapidity. The hospitalization and death rates didn't really move much with this rise. Even today the number of deaths per day is something like a 120. Dr Scott Gootlieb the former head of the FDA says the USA will see the same trend for the sunbelt. He expects they will peak out in a few weeks and then start declining in manner similar to the UK. The Delta variant might spread quickly but in most cases it doesn't seem to send people to the hospital at a rate comparable to previous variants.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> Let's not get our shorts tied in knots over this Delta variant. Yes the UK had a fair sized run up but the numbers are now declining rapidity. The hospitalization and death rates didn't really move much with this rise. Even today the number of deaths per day is something like a 120. Dr Scott Gootlieb the former head of the FDA says the USA will see the same trend for the sunbelt. He expects they will peak out in a few weeks and then start declining in manner similar to the UK. The Delta variant might spread quickly but in most cases it doesn't seem to send people to the hospital at a rate comparable to previous variants.


That's why it is a smart move to stop tracking infections and start tracking only hospitalizations and deaths.
Alberta is on the right path (minus not forcing people with positive test to isolate, don't understand that one), they are just moving too slow. Changes should be immediate


----------



## sags

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/alberta-covid-19-isolation-ontario-medical-experts-1.6122579


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/alberta-covid-19-isolation-ontario-medical-experts-1.6122579


Yep, the isolation is the only one I disagree with.
It makes little sense especially since only people with symptoms will be tested, so only people with symptoms will have positive test.
If you have symptoms you should isolate.
Of course advice is still to do that, and law itself was absolutely useless and completely unenforceable, but just for the visibility that one should remain.
All the other measures are very smart and the only problem is that they are happening too late. Better late than never though!


----------



## OptsyEagle

zinfit said:


> Let's not get our shorts tied in knots over this Delta variant. Yes the UK had a fair sized run up but the numbers are now declining rapidity. The hospitalization and death rates didn't really move much with this rise. Even today the number of deaths per day is something like a 120. Dr Scott Gootlieb the former head of the FDA says the USA will see the same trend for the sunbelt. He expects they will peak out in a few weeks and then start declining in manner similar to the UK. The Delta variant might spread quickly but in most cases it doesn't seem to send people to the hospital at a rate comparable to previous variants.


The Delta variant does not send many people to the hospital during the warm weather outdoors or indoors with regular air circulation provided by air conditioning and fans. Once the fall comes along, it will raise its ugly head again and start making unprotected people (unvaccinated) very sick, sending quite a few of them to the ICU. The Delta variant is more dangerous then any of the previous viruses we have seen to date. We don't want to make any mistakes about this. The fall infection wave will be nasty but it should be the last scary one.

The goods news for society is our hospitals should be able to handle their increasing delivery of patients, and this is also a reason why the hospitals were not overwhelmed in the US and UK etc., because of the large proportion of the population that were vaccinated that don't need their services nearly as much anymore. In any case, if an unvaccinated person persists in staying unvaccinated, they really, really want to get their future infection outdoors. I cannot stress that enough. If you find yourself indoors, please do yourself a favour and crack a window at least. Yes. You will still get infected by this Delta variant, but you have a much better chance of surviving it if you don't expose yourself to a much higher concentrated dose of it like what can happen indoors.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Garth Turned posted an excellent summation of the current status with the covid situation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On cowardice — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.greaterfool.ca


 ^ ... I hope Garth is ready for the captapult of eggs on his car, it not the <xxxx> that'll be heading to his blog. The messages within these 2 paragraphs from his article particularly stand out. 
_



... Simple. Vaccination should be mandatory. As much as it pains an indy-minded, Con-type, Alpha male to say such a thing, it’s just common sense. Employers should insist workers get jabbed before returning to the workplace. Restaurants, gyms, concerts, conventions, cruises and airlines need to see proof of stabbing before providing service. Schools and universities are a no-brainer. Maybe even the streetcar, bus and subway.

After all, vaccinations are free, widely available and in many places now being given at walk-in clinics. There is no excuse for not getting jabbed. It is a moral, ethical and social imperative. As this blog has stated often (to wails of outrage) those who refuse – other than for a certified medical reason – are selfish or cowardly. And probably both. ...

Click to expand...

_


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Yup, I've been whining for over a year, Trudeau never closed the border, and never enforced the quarantine.
> Now it's too late, we have COVID fatigue and people are over it.


 ... so where does this leave the rest of us (the personally responsible people)?


----------



## sags

Mr.Matt doesn't care about anyone else.

He only cares that the un-vaccinated have rights that supercede everyone else's rights.

He defends their right to flit around like Tinkerbelle sprinkling virus all over the unsuspecting.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Mr.Matt doesn't care about anyone else.
> 
> He only cares that the un-vaccinated have rights that supercede everyone else's rights.
> 
> He defends their right to flit around like Tinkerbelle sprinkling virus all over the unsuspecting.


You are assuming vaccinated people don't spread the virus.
That is wrong. They do.
They are just less likely to get symptoms, and much less likely to get hospitalized.

You are a tinkerbelle sprinkling virus as well even when vaccinated.
You are however, much less likely to get sick from the virus.
So enjoy the added protection and stop discriminating others


----------



## sags

Vaccinated people aren't spreading it to vaccinated people.

It is the un-vaccinated who are spreading the disease.

What we need right now is to tamp down the Delta before it is out of control.

We need to lock down for a month and everyone stay home on vacation.

Sit in the yard, have a BBQ, relax and chill. Let the virus die down for lack of hosts.

The longer we delay the less effective the vaccines become. We need to act now.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> *Vaccinated people aren't spreading it to vaccinated people.*
> 
> It is the un-vaccinated who are spreading the disease.
> 
> What we need right now is to tamp down the Delta before it is out of control.
> 
> We need to lock down for a month and everyone stay home on vacation.
> 
> Sit in the yard, have a BBQ, relax and chill. Let the virus die down for lack of hosts.
> 
> The longer we delay the less effective the vaccines become. We need to act now.


Sorry to break your bubble of science-denial, but you are wrong.

It cites a combination of recently obtained, still-unpublished data from outbreak investigations and outside studies showing that vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people infected with delta have measurable viral loads similar to those who are unvaccinated and infected with the variant.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/










CDC warns in internal document that 'war has changed' with the coronavirus


Vaccines continue to be effective, particularly at preventing severe disease, according to the document. But they may not be as good at preventing infection or transmission of the delta variant.




www.nbcnews.com












CDC says fully vaccinated people spread the Delta variant and should wear masks: 'This new science is worrisome'


The Delta variant makes it easier for vaccinated people to transmit the virus, CDC director Rochelle Walensky said.




www.businessinsider.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Mr.Matt doesn't care about anyone else.
> 
> He only cares that the un-vaccinated have rights that supercede everyone else's rights.
> 
> He defends their right to flit around like Tinkerbelle sprinkling virus all over the unsuspecting.


Actually I care about other people a lot. That's why I'm a stronger proponent of human rights than you are.

That's why I support someones right to refuse an unwanted medical intervention, even when I believe they should get one.
Remember, I was (and still am) on the pro-AZ vaccine side. Which puts me more firmly pro vaccine than even our government.

That's really something you seem to be missing. I support peoples right to choose, EVEN when I disagree with them.
You seem to only support human rights when they happen to agree with your other opinions.
Here you're arguing that it's okay for the government to force people to undergo potentially fatal medical procedures, and you don't even see the problem.


I don't think anyone should be sprinkling COVID19 over anyone.
I think that everyone should have been wearing a mask, and I also disapprove of face shields instead of masks.
What does vaccine status have to do with spreading the virus anyway?


----------



## Beaver101

Federal modelling warns of fourth COVID-19 wave driven by Delta if reopening is too fast

Should we (both the vaccinateds and the un-vaccinated) listening to her, representative of the Feds (Canadian)? Do we care anymore?

How about htis guy Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, a professor and the dean of the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Ontario, Canada?

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2021/07/29/a-fourth-wave-of-covid-19-could-fundamentally-divide-ontarians-expert-warns.html?

If his hypothesis above is correct, so much for the slogan "We're All In It Together".


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/alberta-covid-19-isolation-ontario-medical-experts-1.6122579


at some point we have to get back to freedom. Covid was a gift for all the socialists, marxists and lefty control freaks who have little use for individual freedom. If we listened to the CBC medical experts we would be under martial law with no freedom to leave your home. Covid has been very, very destructive to the economy and many businesses. At some point people have to accountable and responsible for their own behaviour. The ones that choose no vaccine let them live or die with the consequences of their foolish decision. Stupidity and ignorance cannot be controlled by any government.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> At some point people have to accountable and responsible for their own behaviour.* The ones that choose no vaccine let them live or die with the consequences of their foolish decision.* Stupidity and ignorance cannot be controlled by any government.


 ... true on the first statement but only if they don't land in the ICU unit otherwise who'll be making that determination? I don't suppose you're expecting the doctors to?

And if they don't die, then everyone else requiring medical treatment at the hospital gets held up. That's why the government needs to intervene (aka the "controlling factor") for the rest of society. That's the way I see it.


----------



## sags

Yes, there is little concern exhibited by some for the safety of the healthcare workers.

They say......we will just people get sick and die, which ignores everyone else who is involved.

The natural course for the disease isn't a path we want to go down.

It appears the fourth wave in already underway and we have to deal with it......like it or not.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ ... true on the first statement but only if they don't land in the ICU unit otherwise who'll be making that determination? I don't suppose you're expecting the doctors to?
> 
> And if they don't die, then everyone else requiring medical treatment at the hospital gets held up. That's why the government needs to intervene (aka the "controlling factor") for the rest of society. That's the way I see it.


Yes
That's the way it works in Canada, you make a bad decision, we still pay for it.

We still care for smokers, or people who choose to do drugs, or choose not to work.


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ^ ... true on the first statement but only if they don't land in the ICU unit otherwise who'll be making that determination? I don't suppose you're expecting the doctors to?
> 
> And if they don't die, then everyone else requiring medical treatment at the hospital gets held up. That's why the government needs to intervene (aka the "controlling factor") for the rest of society. That's the way I see it.


no different then cancer treatment for a smoker with lung cancer. By the way a lot more Canadians have died from cancer over the year and 1/2. Risk is part of life and there is a limit on how much government can control unless you want a totalitarian society.


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Yes, there is little concern exhibited by some for the safety of the healthcare workers.
> 
> They say......we will just people get sick and die, which ignores everyone else who is involved.
> 
> The natural course for the disease isn't a path we want to go down.
> 
> It appears the fourth wave in already underway and we have to deal with it......like it or not.


A lot of people will die from motor vehicle accidents over the next two months. Following your logic may-be we should shutdown the highways and ban motor vehicles? I am not listening to the media hype I will be looking at hospitalizations and deaths. They haven't moved in a significant way. I have been following my Texas county the hospitalizations are 10% of what they were last summer. The Texas death rate was as high as 1200 per day last summer. 34 died yesterday in Texas.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> A lot of people will die from motor vehicle accidents over the next two months. Following your logic may-be we should shutdown the highways and ban motor vehicles?


Let's remember that you are required by law to wear a seat belt, can't be intoxicated, and must drive below the speed limit.

In society, we follow rules that are in place to protect the public good.


----------



## zinfit

Interesting I was reading the latest CSA magazine. From what they have determined no snowbird who returned by air tested positive for covid. They believe virtually every returning snowbird was fully vaccinated. Out of 17,000 snowbirds with Medipac emergency medical overage they had four claims related to covid for medical care in the USA. Obviously Trudeau's travel advisory for snowbirds made little or no sense and his hotel imprisonment policies were a wasteful gong show for the vaccinated snowbirds.


----------



## james4beach

That reminds me... how about general travel medical insurance that's sold to the public. The stuff you buy from one of the banks or brokers.

Will it cover US medical care including hospitalization, in case of covid infection? I'm going to resume traveling to the US but this is a big concern. If that's not covered by travel health insurance, a person can go broke.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> You are REQUIRED to wear a seat belt, can't be intoxicated, and must drive below the speed limit.
> 
> Shocking I know! Yes, it turns out there are rules, and you damn well better follow them for the public good!


If you guys were in charge we could multiply the rules by many fold. I have no problems with some reasonable rules but I get tired of those who keep demanding more and more rules. The CBC crowd has never been happy with any level of rules throughout the whole process.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> That reminds me... how about general travel medical insurance that's sold to the public. The stuff you buy from one of the banks or brokers.
> 
> Will it cover US medical care including hospitalization, in case of covid infection? I'm going to resume traveling to the US but this is a big concern. If that's not covered by travel health insurance, a person can go broke.


Common sense. If you travel anywhere you better make sure you buy the required coverage. I spent the winter in Texas and I bought full covid coverage . If governments could ban stupidity things would be a whole lot better.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> no different then cancer treatment for a smoker with lung cancer.


 ... true given doctor's hippocrates' oath. But then how many cancer patients (including non-smokers) do you see in the "ICUs" given a certain (short) period of time? Like a 1, then 2, then 5, then exponential 10, like Covid?



> By the way a lot more Canadians have died from cancer over the year and 1/2. Risk is part of life and there is a limit on how much government can control unless you want a totalitarian society.


 ... and so have overdoses, not just from drugs but also from mental deterioration. A couple of them on this forum sounded like the latter too. And of course, the government has a limit on how much they can control. That's why everyone not only has a personal responsibility but also a responsibility to society. And those who realizes this (both responsibilities) is already at an advantage. 

Garth Turner's article from his blog which sags posted summed it up best.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> *Common sense. If you travel anywhere you better make sure you buy the required coverage.* I spent the winter in Texas and I bought full covid coverage . If governments could ban stupidity things would be a whole lot better.


 ... aka read the fine-print. I'm certain there'll be "updates" for Covid on travel insurance now.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Yes
> That's the way it works in Canada, you make a bad decision, we still pay for it.
> *
> We still care for smokers, or people who choose to do drugs, or choose not to work.*


 .. and what's wrong with that? Feeling short-changed?


----------



## Beaver101

Two travellers who arrived in Toronto from U.S. fined $20,000 each for fake vaccination documents



> TORONTO - _Two travellers who arrived in Toronto from the United States have been fined for providing fake COVID-19 proof of vaccination documents and lying about pre-departure tests.
> 
> The Public Health Agency of Canada says the travellers also didn't comply with requirements to stay at a government-authorized hotel or to get tested upon arrival.
> 
> The agency says in a news release Friday that the travellers arrived last week and have been handed four fines totalling $19,720 each. .._.


 ... ouch. Heck, that's still cheaper than jail time or in US$.


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> Two travellers who arrived in Toronto from U.S. fined $20,000 each for fake vaccination documents
> 
> ... ouch. Heck, that's still cheaper than jail time or in US$.


They are lucky they could have been charged with fraud and facing serious jail time. Really underscores the sheer stupidity of some of these anti-vaccers. Good to know these idiots are being caught and being charged. If someone shows up with vaccination papers from the US ask them to produce their state immunization record. They can access this information and show the border agents.


----------



## zinfit

Great to see some sanity and freedom return to Canada with the Bluejay home opener tonite. There has to be more to life then lockdowns and restrictions and living in a state of fear and paranoia.


----------



## james4beach

Queensland Australia, the south end of the whole state, just went into strict lockdown tonight. The delta variant seems to have escaped from one of the local quarantine hotels and is now spreading in the region. People can only leave home to buy essentials, or for essential work. The government is trying to discourage panic buying in the stores but it's already happening.

Anyone want to start complaining again about how Canada doesn't have any vaccines? Anyone?

We're one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world. We can thank the federal government for acting fast to order a huge portfolio of vaccines. This is what it looks like when a sharp government is on the ball and working hard for the best interests of the public.

... By the way, regarding travel ...

"Canadians are reminded to avoid non-essential travel outside of Canada," said PHAC spokesperson Anne Génier in an email. "Now is not the time to travel."


----------



## like_to_retire

james4beach said:


> We can thank the federal government for acting fast to order a huge portfolio of vaccines.


We did indeed order a large quantity of vaccines. But acting fast? That's literally the opposite of what occurred. 

The government should be held accountable for all the unnecessary deaths that occurred, but finally, after an unforgivable delay we've caught up and are now moving ahead. A testament to Canadian citizens who follow rules and believe in science.

ltr


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> Queensland Australia, the south end of the whole state, just went into strict lockdown tonight. The delta variant seems to have escaped from one of the local quarantine hotels and is now spreading in the region. People can only leave home to buy essentials, or for essential work. The government is trying to discourage panic buying in the stores but it's already happening.
> 
> Anyone want to start complaining again about how Canada doesn't have any vaccines? Anyone?
> 
> We're one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world. We can thank the federal government for acting fast to order a huge portfolio of vaccines. This is what it looks like when a sharp government is on the ball and working hard for the best interests of the public.
> 
> ... By the way, regarding travel ...
> 
> "Canadians are reminded to avoid non-essential travel outside of Canada," said PHAC spokesperson Anne Génier in an email. "Now is not the time to travel."


it took Trudeau many months to get out of the starting blocks. Remember his bet on developing a vaccine with the Chinese. Memories can be short. I got both shots by the end of February in Texas . When I returned to Canada in April we had accessed the third world supply of Astrazenca and had got Biden to release some as well. We had only started vaccinating health workers and people over 75 with a four month wait for the second dose. The reason we have a ample supply now is the high production in the USA and a big drop-off in demand in the USA.. Our situation now is good but it has a lot more to do with good luck then good management.


----------



## zinfit

People have been pointing to the success of Australia in combatting covid. They imposed tough restrictions down the line and almost shutdown all travel. Their emphasize was on controls. In other developed countries there was less controls and an emphasize on vaccines. Australia is away behind in vaccinations and securing vaccines. Right now I think Canada and the US are in a better position then Australia. Patience among the people must be wearing thin in Australia.


----------



## sags

Pfizer was only allowed to export vaccine to Canada starting in May 2021.

That is only 10-12 weeks ago when they started shipping to Canada.

The reason we didn't have adequate supply was because the US barred deliveries to anyone.









Pfizer to export U.S.-made COVID-19 shots to Canada starting next week


Pfizer Inc will next week start supplying Canada with COVID-19 vaccine made in its U.S. plant, a senior official said on Friday, making it the second country to receive doses from the Kalamazoo, Mich. facility.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## sags

Stephen Harper made the same critique of the Trudeau government's slow vaccination supply.

His said he would have stockpiled the vaccine before the virus appeared.

Maybe he can give the scientists the DNA structure of the next virus that will appear, so they can develop a vaccine now and Canada can stock pile it in advance.

Not sure how he would do that though.


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Pfizer was only allowed to export vaccine to Canada starting in May 2021.
> 
> That is only 8 weeks ago.
> 
> The reason we didn't have adequate supply was because the US barred deliveries to anyone.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pfizer to export U.S.-made COVID-19 shots to Canada starting next week
> 
> 
> Pfizer Inc will next week start supplying Canada with COVID-19 vaccine made in its U.S. plant, a senior official said on Friday, making it the second country to receive doses from the Kalamazoo, Mich. facility.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


yes they took the very reasonable position of trying to vaccinate their own population first. I can find no argument with that policy. They made sure they had the resources in place and took the steps necessary to insure that the vaccines were developed and manufactured in the USA. What was Trudeau doing on this front? giving our money to a Chinese vaccine company.


----------



## sags

The US blocked the Keystone Pipeline, PPE equipment, and the vaccine.

They aren't opening up their border because they think we have the cooties.

I am beginning to think they aren't our best friend after all.

I don't think Canada paid for any Chinese vaccine. They ordered vaccine but never took delivery.

I could be mistaken though.....in which case I want our money back with interest.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> The US blocked the Keystone Pipeline, PPE equipment, and the vaccine.
> 
> They aren't opening up their border because they think we have the cooties.
> 
> I am beginning to think they aren't our best friend after all.
> 
> I don't think Canada paid for any Chinese vaccine. They ordered vaccine but never took delivery.
> 
> I could be mistaken though.....in which case I want our money back with interest.


US is disregarding Canadians.
UK is disregarding Canadians
EU is disregarding Canadians.

Canada has been made irrelevant on world stage.
Not a surprise considering we are ignoring the science (or lack thereof), delaying doses with no data, and mixing vaccines without data.
We spent the most by far in the entire world on vaccines and still had 4 month delay in getting shot in arms compared to rest of civilized world with competent leadership.
I was eligible for both doses in US in march.
I was eligible for both doses in Poland in april.
In Canada? July


----------



## zinfit

They also lied to the Canadian public. Back in March /April they kept telling us that all the vaccines were great and there was no reason to be concerned with Astrazenca vaccine. Is anyone lining up for AZ today? The approval process is a waste.Just adopt the FDA approvals and eliminate a lot of waste. There is no value added with Health Canada. The whole clinical trial process is a USA thing which is closely monitored by the FDA.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> .. and what's wrong with that? Feeling short-changed?


Honestly yes.
I'm willing to help those who need it.

However I also feel people should take responsibility for their decisions.

I don't think other people should pay the price for your bad decisions.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Pfizer was only allowed to export vaccine to Canada starting in May 2021.
> 
> That is only 10-12 weeks ago when they started shipping to Canada.


Sorry, that's simply not true. You just LOVE your disinformation don't you?

We've had Pfizer for months, I know multiple people who got their Pfizer shot in February.


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> US is disregarding Canadians.
> UK is disregarding Canadians
> EU is disregarding Canadians.
> 
> Canada has been made irrelevant on world stage.
> Not a surprise considering we are ignoring the science (or lack thereof), delaying doses with no data, and mixing vaccines without data.
> We spent the most by far in the entire world on vaccines and still had 4 month delay in getting shot in arms compared to rest of civilized world with competent leadership.
> I was eligible for both doses in US in march.
> I was eligible for both doses in Poland in april.
> In Canada? July


Yes and Trudeau said we are back. Sure as the Chinese mock him as Mr Potato .


----------



## zinfit

Harper , Paul Martin, Preston Manning and Jean Chretien all know something that is beyond Trudeau's capacity that is the huge hangover this country will have with debt and deficit when this is over.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Stephen Harper made the same critique of the Trudeau government's slow vaccination supply.
> 
> His said he would have stockpiled the vaccine before the virus appeared.


I think that a person has to be pretty out of touch with reality, or extremely partisan, if they think Canada's vaccine response was poor.

On the other hand, I think our border policies deserve much more criticism.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Sorry, that's simply not true. You just LOVE your disinformation don't you?
> 
> We've had Pfizer for months, I know multiple people who got their Pfizer shot in February.


Sorry it is true.

Those people got the Pfizer from the plant in Belgium, before it was shut down for an overhaul.


----------



## sags

james4beach said:


> I think that a person has to be pretty out of touch with reality, or extremely partisan, if they think Canada's vaccine response was poor.
> 
> On the other hand, I think our border policies deserve much more criticism.


Trudeau should have given Canadians a week to get home and then shut the border tight.

I also think he is opening the US land border too early. We are already catching cheaters.

I took away 1/2 grade for that and he now only sits at an A minus.

I also have Singh as an A and O'Toole as an absent.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Honestly yes.
> I'm willing to help those who need it.
> 
> However I also feel people should take responsibility for their decisions.
> 
> I don't think other people should pay the price for your bad decisions.


 ... would you say the same things as per above for anti-vaxxers who end up in the ICUs?


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... would you say the same things as per above for anti-vaxxers who end up in the ICUs?


no but by being in the ICU they are suffering the consequences of their own decision. Not a lot different then the smoker with lung cancer. Access to healthcare is not dependant or conditional on good behaviour.


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Trudeau should have given Canadians a week to get home and then shut the border tight.
> 
> I also think he is opening the US land border too early. We are already catching cheaters.
> 
> I took away 1/2 grade for that and he now only sits at an A minus.
> 
> I also have Singh as an A and O'Toole as an absent.


The only thing I can say is I feel sorry for people with those beliefs.


----------



## sags

We will eventually lock down to rid ourselves of the virus. 

The only question is how bad does it have to get before we do.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Sorry it is true.
> 
> Those people got the Pfizer from the plant in Belgium, before it was shut down for an overhaul.


We both know we've been getting Pfizer from the beginning, but you falsely state we didn't get it until May.

COVID19 right now, doesn't pose a serious public health threat, our hospitals aren't overwhelmed, not many people are dying.
There is no reason to lock down anymore, unless you pretend that there is zero cost to lockdowns.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> no but by being in the ICU they are suffering the consequences of their own decision. Not a lot different then the smoker with lung cancer. Access to healthcare is not dependant or conditional on good behaviour.


 ... no doubt but then your comparison is no different than the obese guy/gal who lands in the ICU with a heart attack. So why does MrMatt honestly feels he's being short-changed (aka costing him his tax dollars) in your example versus that of an an un-vaccinated who made the wrong (or is it right? due to his individual rights) decision, landing in the ICU gasping for air? Both costs money. Or is there a discrimination streak there? An individual's rights should trump over societal rights?


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> We both know we've been getting Pfizer from the beginning, but you falsely state we didn't get it until May.
> 
> COVID19 right now, doesn't pose a serious public health threat, our hospitals aren't overwhelmed, not many people are dying.
> There is no reason to lock down anymore, unless you pretend that there is zero cost to lockdowns.


You falsely posted that you knew someone who got Pfizer vaccine from the US in February.

I don't think you deliberately post false information all the time. I think you are just confused.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... no doubt but then your comparison is no different than the obese guy/gal who lands in the ICU with a heart attack. So why does MrMatt honestly feels he's being short-changed (aka costing him his tax dollars) in your example versus that of an an un-vaccinated who made the wrong (or is it right? due to his individual rights) decision, landing in the ICU gasping for air? Both costs money. Or is there a discrimination streak there? An individual's rights should trump over societal rights?


The government shouldn't force people to undergo potentially lethal medical procedures.

What does my position have to do with tax dollars?


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> We will eventually lock down to rid ourselves of the virus.
> 
> The only question is how bad does it have to get before we do.


Sags. Would you do us a favour and explain to us how locking down rids us of this virus. You keep ranting on about that and I am at a loss how this works. Now keep in mind that we have already had about 3 lockdowns already and the virus is still with us so please, with all your wisdom would you please explain this lockdown plan to us. 

I would love to get rid of this virus but the only way I see it happening is to open things up. Obviously you disagree so help some of us out who are struggling with your plan.


----------



## Bananatron

OptsyEagle said:


> Sags. Would you do us a favour and explain to us how locking down rids us of this virus. You keep ranting on about that and I am at a loss how this works. Now keep in mind that we have already had about 3 lockdowns already and the virus is still with us so please, with all your wisdom would you please explain this lockdown plan to us.
> 
> I would love to get rid of this virus but the only way I see it happening is to open things up. Obviously you disagree so help some of us out who are struggling with your plan.


You just have to wait it out, like Australia is doing. Couple 2-3 generations this will all be behind them


----------



## sags

The pattern has repeated over and over and over.......all over the world.

Lock down and the virus numbers decline rapidly......open up and the virus numbers rise rapidly.

The problem isn't with lock downs not working. It is that we keep opening up to see what happens.

If we had locked down long enough, closed the borders or enforced mandatory quarantine and testing, the virus wouldn't be raging again. It may not have been able to mutate to the Delta variant.

We keep making the same mistakes and expecting a different result.

Maybe the vaccines will make a difference this time but it sure doesn't look promising.

Hospitals in Florida, Georgia and Mississippi are full to capacity. Texas has set up tent ER and ICU units outside the hospitals. Other states are reporting they are at health care capacity.

Hospitals are closing down beds due to staff shortages. 

Near us......a small hospital closed their ER because of no staff.

We are going to grind down the docs and nurses until they can't go on anymore. Then what ?


----------



## sags

The virus is breaking through vaccinations and infecting younger people in increasing numbers.

The experts now say the Delta is not only more infectious but also has more severe symptoms.

Opening up now is like putting down the drawbridge while the enemy is banging on the doors.

We are refusing to accept the reality but at some point it will be forced upon us.


----------



## sags

Now let me ask those who want to open up a question.

Will you participate fully in the opening up, or will you sit safely at home and see what happens.









Unvaccinated Covid-19 patients are filling up hospitals, putting the care of others at risk, doctors say


Hospitals are surging with unvaccinated patients infected with the Delta variant -- which could affect car accident victims and other non-Covid-19 patients who need hospital care, doctors say.




www.cnn.com


----------



## zinfit

Bananatron said:


> You just have to wait it out, like Australia is doing. Couple 2-3 generations this will all be behind them


I think Australia is in a mess. They have become obsessed with blocking travel and employing lockdowns. Sure they have low numbers. What they don't have is a serious and effective vaccination program, they don't have a large % of recovered covid people and they have given away a lot of freedom. I think the US has a better outlook right now than Australia. Anyways Australia has always been an isolated outlier. It is far easier to talk about travel restrictions in that situation. Not so easy for Canada. Our economy is highly integrated with the USA and I suspect that 50% or more of standard of living is dependant on that relationship. Sags should go to North Korea until this pandemic is over. They have the border controls and freedoms he admires .


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> Now let me ask those who want to open up a question.
> 
> Will you participate fully in the opening up, or will you sit safely at home and see what happens.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Unvaccinated Covid-19 patients are filling up hospitals, putting the care of others at risk, doctors say
> 
> 
> Hospitals are surging with unvaccinated patients infected with the Delta variant -- which could affect car accident victims and other non-Covid-19 patients who need hospital care, doctors say.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


 we've been fully opened up for a month. Of course we're participating. Wife and I are fully vaccinated and 2 kids under 10.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The pattern has repeated over and over and over.......all over the world.
> 
> Lock down and the virus numbers decline rapidly......open up and the virus numbers rise rapidly.
> 
> The problem isn't with lock downs not working. It is that we keep opening up to see what happens.
> 
> If we had locked down long enough, closed the borders or enforced mandatory quarantine and testing, the virus wouldn't be raging again. It may not have been able to mutate to the Delta variant.
> 
> We keep making the same mistakes and expecting a different result.


The reason we opened up was because we had to, along with the fact that at some point you will notice that the infection numbers stop going down and start to move sideways. To do what you think will work (0 active cases) would require a much more rigid lockdown then we have seen. Curfews, restriction of almost all cross boarder trade and severe punishment for anyone violating the lockdown. Plus we will always have those groups who cannot be locked down, police, doctors, nurses, firemen, etc. Not only are we not ready for that kind of restriction, it still will not work because even if we get our active infection numbers to 0, we would still need to maintain those same restrictions until the rest of the world is at 0, or they will just go back up. This would have our rigid lockdown lasting for years upon years because locking down the world is out of our control. The best a realistic lockdown can do is reduce the numbers to a level that reduces the strain on the healthcare system and that is it. Lockdowns will not get rid of this virus.

Opening up will not get rid of the virus either, by the way. What opening up will do is:

1st: get us back everything that is lost from locking down. Businesses will get back to business. People will get back to their social lifestyle. Kids will go back to finally learning something in school. Deficits will stop coming in at $150 billion annually, mostly to support all the people who cannot work without being in contact with others, etc..etc.

2nd: get everyone exposed to the virus so that future contact with the virus will not send them, or at least as many, to the hospital. This inevitable exposure will happen quicker so that sooner then later we won't need as many of our healthcare professionals standing by waiting for covid patients and they will be able to start addressing all the other healthcare issues Canadians have.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> The government shouldn't force people to undergo potentially lethal medical procedures.
> 
> What does my position have to do with tax dollars?


 ... answer from your own responding posts #5550 (and previous one - all re posted here):


> #5,550 · 2 d ago
> 
> 
> 
> Beaver101 said:
> ... and what's wrong with that? Feeling short-changed?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Honestly yes.
> I'm willing to help those who need it.
> However I also feel people should take responsibility for their decisions.
> *I don't think other people should pay the price for your bad decisions.*
Click to expand...

 and



> #5,536





> 2 d ago
> 
> 
> 
> MrMatt said:
> Yes
> That's the way it works in Canada, you make a bad decision, *we still pay for it.*
> *We still care for smokers, or people who choose to do drugs, or choose not to work.*
> 
> 
> 
> .. and what's wrong with that? Feeling short-changed?
Click to expand...


----------



## sags

New Brunswick opened up and a couple days later they have outbreaks.

In the US, Florida is the epicenter of the virus and hospitals are swamped, and they have an infection rate of 18%.

Hospitals are swamped and people are younger (30-40 year olds) and sicker than with the first waves.

Texas, Louisiana and other states that opened up are now in trouble with rapidly rising case counts.

Alberta has opened up and the case counts are rising. Quebec just opened up yesterday.

Ontario is back over 200 cases a day. Hospitals everywhere are short staffed and closing beds and ER units.

Due to the influx of covid cases and the necessity of moving staff to treat them, many places put surgery back on hold.

There is nothing good that is going to come from opening up right now when the Delta is raging through the population.

Only a fool would do that, but apparently we have a lot of fools for leaders.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> New Brunswick opened up and a couple days later they have outbreaks.
> 
> In the US, Florida is the epicenter of the virus and hospitals are swamped, and they have an infection rate of 18%.
> 
> Hospitals are swamped and people are younger (30-40 year olds) and sicker than with the first waves.
> 
> Texas, Louisiana and other states that opened up are now in trouble with rapidly rising case counts.
> 
> Alberta has opened up and the case counts are rising. Quebec just opened up yesterday.
> 
> Ontario is back over 200 cases a day. Hospitals everywhere are short staffed and closing beds and ER units.
> 
> Due to the influx of covid cases and the necessity of moving staff to treat them, many places put surgery back on hold.
> 
> There is nothing good that is going to come from opening up right now when the Delta is raging through the population.
> 
> Only a fool would do that, but apparently we have a lot of fools for leaders.


Just give it a little more time. Of course there will be more infections when we open up. That is actually part of the solution. People on this planet have only two options ahead them. Expose themselves to covid safely through vaccination or expose themselves to covid a little more riskier through infection. As you know, many of the US citizens, as well as ours, have declined the vaccine and therefore chosen the infection route. All you are seeing is the result of those decisions.

Once we all get through this last wave, it should be the last. It will be scary, but hopefully it will then be over. There is no other course of action. Either we have the same number of infections at a lower rate over a ridiculous long time, utilizing precautions and lockdowns, or we get them over with more quickly by opening up.

Just keep an eye on the hospitals if you want something to keep you exited. I imagine a few may start to see some strain in the fall but with the amount of our populations who should not require them (vaccinated) I suspect most hospitals will be OK. For that we will have to see to be sure.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Just to give people a little better picture of what I am talking about here, with respect to finally ending this pandemic for Canadians. I estimate that around 6 or 7 million Canadian will initially maintain their stubbornness with respect to declining the vaccine. In order to get us out of this mess, I figure 4 million or more will need to be exposed to the virus or come to their senses with respect to vaccination.

So far in Canada we have had around 1.5 million known infections. Any reasonable scientists would tell you that when all the asymptomatic infections, who did not bother getting tested, are included, that number is more likely above 4 million. So I am talking about an almost 100% increase in infections going forward, compared to what we have already seen. Now since many of the previous infections have gone unnoticed, we have to assume that 1/2 a million or so of those 4 million people have already been infected and just don't know it.

My hope is that if we could open up soon and we might be able to get the lion's share of those people exposed to the virus quickly and much more safely, in an outdoor setting, so that as we reach the fall, there will be far less left that will obtain a more dangerous infection, requiring hospitalization and/or death. Now while all that is going on, since it will obviously be a scary time in our existence, I am also hoping quite a few of those 4 million people will come to their senses or be persuaded in some other way, to embrace the safety of vaccination. In any case, since the Delta variant is so infectious I suspect we can get through this by next summer, with the fall being the scariest period of it all.

I really wish there was another way. I just don't see it. There will be quite a few less Canadians when this is all over, but what can we really do. There is no other plan after vaccination. This virus is not going away, so we need to prepare ourselves for our inevitable meetings. As I said, we either get all those infections slowly over a ridiculously long time frame or we get them over quickly, with a scary number of infections (most likely breaking previous records if we bother to test for them), but either way, it is going to happen.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Now let me ask those who want to open up a question.
> 
> Will you participate fully in the opening up, or will you sit safely at home and see what happens.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Unvaccinated Covid-19 patients are filling up hospitals, putting the care of others at risk, doctors say
> 
> 
> Hospitals are surging with unvaccinated patients infected with the Delta variant -- which could affect car accident victims and other non-Covid-19 patients who need hospital care, doctors say.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


 ... I think the "fully" participating in the opening up is dependent on the demographics (age for the most part) of the population. 

Just speaking of the "general Canadian" population here, I bet dollars for donuts that the over 50s will NOT be "fully" participating. They'll most likely sit safely at home with a participation being a tad better than the first wave. The brave under 35s (young adults) will fully participate. The inbetweens 35 to 50s (dependent on their job security and family status) will see which way the infection compass moves. But for the most part, likely have to sit safely at home due to the need to work.


----------



## sags

The problem with your calculations Optsy is that you are using data from a much less infectious and dangerous virus.....the Alpha (UK) and the original Wuhan strain.

The Delta variant is a new virus and is much more infectious and deadly.

It is causing more severe symptoms in younger age groups than the previous variations.

It is putting healthy 30-40 years olds into the hospital and in ICU units. 

It is infecting children with more severe symptoms.

We won't know the statistics on this virus until it circulates for awhile.

The initial results don't inspire optimism.


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> ... I think the "fully" participating in the opening up is dependent on the demographics (age for the most part) of the population.
> 
> Just speaking of the "general Canadian" population here, I bet dollars for donuts that the over 50s will NOT be "fully" participating. They'll most likely sit safely at home with a participation being a tad better than the first wave. The brave under 35s (young adults) will fully participate. The inbetweens 35 to 50s (dependent on their job security and family status) will see which way the infection compass moves. But for the most part, likely have to sit safely at home due to the need to work.


Yes, I can safely stay home and shelter in place, but many people can't.

Some people expect others to work while they sit comfortably and safely at home.

They want all financial support eliminated to force people to work to serve their needs.

Their agenda is pretty clear. Let others do the work and take all the risk.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... answer from your own responding posts #5550 (and previous one - all re posted here):
> and
> Coronavirus (COVID-19)


Nice selective editing to remove the context where you were complaining about all the hospital beds they take up.
I just remarked that we pay for other peoples bad decisions.

I don't like it very much, but that's the reality.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> Nice selective editing to remove the context where you were complaining about all the hospital beds they take up.
> I just remarked that we pay for other peoples bad decisions.
> 
> I don't like it very much, but that's the reality.


Dr Scott Gottlieb former head of the FDA says this variant spreads like wildfire but it quickly hits its peak and declines rapidly. He says that is happening in the UK.He says it will repeat itself in the US sunbelt then it will move to the Northern States and Canada and repeat the process.He says the people who should be concerned are the unvaccinated.. one good thing is it spreads rapidly then dies out. We will see if this guy is correct.Travel restrictionz don't seem to restrict or block this variant.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The problem with your calculations Optsy is that you are using data from a much less infectious and dangerous virus.....the Alpha (UK) and the original Wuhan strain.
> 
> The Delta variant is a new virus and is much more infectious and deadly.
> 
> It is causing more severe symptoms in younger age groups than the previous variations.
> 
> It is putting healthy 30-40 years olds into the hospital and in ICU units.
> 
> It is infecting children with more severe symptoms.
> 
> We won't know the statistics on this virus until it circulates for awhile.
> 
> The initial results don't inspire optimism.


It doesn't matter what variant we use. There is nothing left to do after vaccines then to face the virus. We cannot cower in our homes forever. Eventually we have to get back to work. Back to school. Back to living.

and yes, I did take into account the Delta variant. I am hoping its incredible infection rate will reduce the time it takes to naturally inoculate (infect) all the people who have declined the vaccine. If we move fast the Delta variant should be able to get to millions of them before the colder weather hits. It seems to be the perfect variant for this but as you said, not everyone will enjoy the experience, especially as we get into the fall.

I did not invent this. I am just looking at the situation from a logical point of view and I have determined that we cannot avoid future infections, mostly among our unvaccinated, so we might as well get as many over with as quickly as we can. At least that works to the benefit of all the other problems this pandemic has created.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Since we are talking about the Delta variant and how infectious it is and above I was discussing how I think it could be useful during our summer months in spreading inoculations more safely and quickly, I thought I would post this.









Two-thirds of Indians have coronavirus antibodies, survey shows


Two-thirds of India's population have antibodies against the coronavirus, according to data released on Tuesday from a survey of 29,000 people across the nation conducted in June and July.




www.reuters.com





In a survey done a few weeks ago they tested people from India, all across the country and found that 2/3rds now have antibodies for covid-19. Obviously that number of infections is wayyy higher then what was recorded on their daily testing results. We all know how the pandemic ravaged that country, a few months back, but we probably did not understand how they finally got it under control or at least better control. In other words, why did the infection numbers finally start to decline in India (where the Delta variant originated). It was not vaccination. Less then 38% were vaccinated and only 8% had two doses of vaccine, which we have heard is required for the Delta variant. It was not because they locked down. It was certainly not due to some kind of super human difference in Indians compared to the rest of us or a better healthcare system. It was because the Delta variant ravaged through that country like a wild fire in a wind gust. Many suffered greatly but as a percentage of 2/3rd of the population of India, it was obviously a very small percentage of those infected and eventually the virus started to find it more and more difficult to spread, with so many people naturally inoculated. 

With 1/3rd of India still vulnerable, their pandemic is certainly not over, but hopefully you guys can start to see what I am talking about, with respect to the final push, here in Canada. There is nothing left for us to do but face this virus but if we can do most of it outside or inside larger rooms with air conditioning or fans moving air around and windows open, we can reduce the carnage to the minimum amount possible.

That is our best hope IMO.


----------



## like_to_retire

OptsyEagle said:


> With 1/3rd of India still vulnerable, their pandemic is certainly not over, but hopefully you guys can start to see what I am talking about, with respect to the final push, here in Canada. There is nothing left for us to do but face this virus but if we can do most of it outside or inside larger rooms with air conditioning or fans moving air around and windows open, we can reduce the carnage to the minimum amount possible.
> 
> That is our best hope IMO.


Correct. This notion to order another lockdown will do nothing but continue this cycle forever. All those that want a vaccination have gotten one, so let's open it up because waiting for those last few holdouts will do more harm than good in the long run.

ltr


----------



## sags

They said the same thing about herd immunity in India in October 2020. Then it blew up in April 2021.

It didn't work then and is not likely to work now.









India's COVID-19 cases have declined rapidly—but herd immunity is still far away, scientists say


Encouraging national trends hide a complex picture of “100 epidemics,” some rising, some falling




www.sciencemag.org





How many countries have declared victory over the virus......yet it is worse than ever ?

The latest politician was Joe Biden. Sorry Joe.......it ain't over yet.


----------



## sags

The latest news on vaccines........they only work for about 6 months.

Israel is giving people boosters because they were the earliest to vaccinate and now the vaccine protection is declining. Everyone is watching Israel because they have the only available data.

Booster shots are in our future, but the problem will again be supply. Some doctors want to delay the booster production because they need the vaccines to be manufactured for countries that need them.

Here we go again ?


----------



## damian13ster

Good thing natural immunity lasts for a lifetime!

Did you read the article you posted? It literally says exact opposite of what you claim it does.
Number of people with antibodies was very low

Pfizer and Moderna already jacking up prices of the vaccines


----------



## sags

Yes I read the article. They were chasing herd immunity, which other countries have also done.

In every country it was tried........it failed miserably.

I think we should leave the theory of herd immunity out of the toolbox.

Restrictions hold the virus at bay until we can get more people vaccinated and given booster shots.

The politicians are gambling by removing all restrictions, and it doesn't look like a good idea.

I suggest people look at the numbers rising dramatically in Florida, Texas, and other US states.

Up 300% in a week, up 500% in a month....hospitals full to capacity, and it is just getting started.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Yes I read the article. They were chasing herd immunity, which other countries have also done.
> 
> In every country it was tried........it failed miserably.
> 
> I think we should leave the theory of herd immunity out of the toolbox.
> 
> Restrictions hold the virus at bay until we can get more people vaccinated and given booster shots.
> 
> The politicians are gambling by removing all restrictions, and it doesn't look like a good idea.


Theory of herd immunity? Are you high?

Vaccines literally are part of 'theory of herd immunity'.
It isn't a theory. The question is about a way to get immunity.
Either natural or vaccine, or both.
Herd immunity is still a goal

"Theory of herd immunity" - Jesus, the science deniers are starting to win


----------



## sags

Lindsey Graham has covid......despite being fully vaccinated.

He is now touting the vaccine because his symptoms are only "flu like" and not serious thus far.

Maybe he can convince some Republican anti-vaxxers to get the shot.









Graham says he has COVID-19 ‘breakthrough’ infection


Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Monday that he had tested positive for the coronavirus, even though he was fully vaccinated.“I was just informed by the House physician I have tested positive for …




thehill.com


----------



## OptsyEagle

Very little of what I am talking about has much to do with herd immunity. I figure until 70% of the world is vaccinated or previously infected, herd immunity is an impossible dream.

What I am talking about is getting Canadians immune from the virus so that our country can go on with life, without overwhelming our hospitals every fall require new lockdowns. The idea that we can keep the virus at bay until the world gets vaccinated and the virus burns itself out is ridiculous. It would take far too long and not only are we unlikely to wait for that but this new delta virus is not going to give us that much time. People are going to get together and the delta variant is going to infect them. There is nothing anyone can do to stop that.

That is what I am talking about. When the vaccination/previous infections get to a certain level we will have a little help from herd immunity but we are still going to experience little outbreaks here and there. Also, I should point out that the delta variant is going to infect the vaccinated as well. We cannot stop that either. The good news there is that for the most part it should not cause much of us too much trouble and as soon as we rid it from our bodies, we will then have some very solid protection against that variant, and our 3rd shot so to speak for anyone hoping to get one of those.

You see what I mean? All lockdown/precautions do is delay the above, but either way, it cannot be stopped.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Nice selective editing to remove the context where you were complaining about all the hospital beds they take up.


 ... no, no different than you. Only you sway both ways as if you can't make up your mind. Yes, I was complaining about hospitals beds being taken up by the general population of "hard-core anti-vaxxers" (those with no medical reason for not vaxxing) who land in the ICU depriving others (yes, this category includes people who made bad decisions such as junkies, heart attack patients, MVA patients, etc.) when it's all preventable for them.


> I just remarked that we pay for other peoples bad decisions.


 ... now you're using a blanket statement to cover a previous statement/remark that had selective meaning. That statement was "Honestly I do" feel short-changed of having to pay for "other people's bad decisions of shooting up, getting fat, drunk driving, etc. ", with the exception of anti-vaxxers because they have rights. As I asked in one of my post, should an individual's rights trump over societal rights? It would seem that is your belief.



> I don't like it very much, but that's the reality.


 ... well yeah. And the reality is that WE are all going to be paying for the anti-vaxxers' "right" decision also because they have rights. Only their rights are more significant than everybody's else rights.


----------



## Beaver101

Summer camp in Muskoka district shuts amid COVID-19 outbreak

Taking the above latest example of a business of opening up. Mind you this is Ontario (like a test case), not mighty Florida. Opened up for 4 weeks only, only to have to close again. Open/close/open/close/open/close ... who is going?


----------



## sags

Opening and closing is exactly what businesses don't want and can't endure for long.

They lay off staff......then hire staff.......then lay off staff.......and then the staff finds other jobs.

Already businesses are complaining they had to lay off staff and are now short staffed.

Restaurants and bars buy lots of food and then get shut down. The food is given away or spoils.

Rinse and repeat a few times and the doors will close permanently.

At least if the restrictions stay on....the business remains closed and both the business and employees get financial support, until they can safely reopen again.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... no, no different than you. Only you sway both ways as if you can't make up your mind. Yes, I was complaining about hospitals beds being taken up by the general population of "hard-core anti-vaxxers" (those with no medical reason for not vaxxing)


You are totally misrepresenting the concerns of those who don't want a COVID19 vaccine.
1. There is a small yet real risk of serious injury or death. That is a medical reason.
2. The Government actually pulled one vaccine because they thought it was too risky.

So lets see, we have new vaccines, that were rushed through approvals, and the government has already stopped using 1/3 of them because of safety risks.

To say that their concerns are unfounded is simply not true.

I think they're wrong, but you have to admit it's a legitimate argument.


----------



## sags

At least in the US the employers have the right to require employees to be vaccinated. 

Unless the government passes new legislation that isn't an option in Canada.

So some employees don't bother to get vaccinated and they can infect the customers.


----------



## sags

Garth Turner sums it up......

_What can or should be done?

Simple. Vaccination should be mandatory. As much as it pains an indy-minded, Con-type, Alpha male to say such a thing, it’s just common sense. Employers should insist workers get jabbed before returning to the workplace. Restaurants, gyms, concerts, conventions, cruises and airlines need to see proof of stabbing before providing service. Schools and universities are a no-brainer. Maybe even the streetcar, bus and subway.

After all, vaccinations are free, widely available and in many places now being given at walk-in clinics. There is no excuse for not getting jabbed. It is a moral, ethical and social imperative. As this blog has stated often (to wails of outrage) those who refuse – other than for a certified medical reason – are selfish or cowardly. And probably both.

Meanwhile, before he calls the election, T2 should sanction and announce a vaccine passport. Enough buck-passing to the provinces or hiding before the veil of ‘personal privacy concerns.’ Only by officially shunning those in society who choose to put everyone else at risk will this thing ultimately be defeated.






On cowardice — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate







www.greaterfool.ca




_


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Garth Turner sums it up......
> 
> _What can or should be done?
> 
> Simple. Vaccination should be mandatory. As much as it pains an indy-minded, Con-type, Alpha male to say such a thing, it’s just common sense. Employers should insist workers get jabbed before returning to the workplace. Restaurants, gyms, concerts, conventions, cruises and airlines need to see proof of stabbing before providing service. Schools and universities are a no-brainer. Maybe even the streetcar, bus and subway.
> 
> After all, vaccinations are free, widely available and in many places now being given at walk-in clinics. There is no excuse for not getting jabbed. It is a moral, ethical and social imperative. As this blog has stated often (to wails of outrage) those who refuse – other than for a certified medical reason – are selfish or cowardly. And probably both.
> 
> Meanwhile, before he calls the election, T2 should sanction and announce a vaccine passport. Enough buck-passing to the provinces or hiding before the veil of ‘personal privacy concerns.’ Only by officially shunning those in society who choose to put everyone else at risk will this thing ultimately be defeated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On cowardice — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.greaterfool.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _


Garth Turner ? Not s 
A source of guidance for me.


----------



## sags

Maybe he should be.


----------



## damian13ster

The rising hospitalizations among kids are with RSV virus, which is incredibly frequent pathogen, that is more active in winter.









CDC study shows 74% of people infected in Massachusetts Covid outbreak were fully vaccinated


The CDC data published Friday was based on 469 cases of Covid associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in July in Massachusetts.




www.cnbc.com






And Mr. Matt has been incredibly consistent. Human rights for everyone. Junkies, fat people, doctors, not-doctors, anti-vaxxers, colored people, white people, old people, young people. Very steady and very reasonable belief.


----------



## sags

It is clear that increasing numbers of kids are becoming infected with covid.

_The state reported 10,785 new cases among those under 12 last week, almost as many as those 65 and over. 

"We are seeing many more cases of COVID than we have in the last couple of weeks," said Dr. Wassam Rahman, the head of their emergency department. _

Thankfully although many seek treatment, the fatality rate is very low.









Florida pediatric COVID cases continue to rise ahead of first day of school


Doctors at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital say every week sets a new benchmark for children hospitalized with COVID-19.




www.fox13news.com


----------



## Spudd

sags said:


> At least in the US the employers have the right to require employees to be vaccinated.
> 
> Unless the government passes new legislation that isn't an option in Canada.
> 
> So some employees don't bother to get vaccinated and they can infect the customers.


That is true, but employers are allowed to do "reasonable accommodations" for employees who don't want to be vaccinated, which may include masking and social distancing. If people are just not getting it out of laziness, I doubt they will prefer to wear a mask to work and be stuffed in a corner where they can't infect anyone, vs being allowed to be normal. Hopefully!


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> The government shouldn't force people to undergo potentially lethal medical procedures.
> 
> What does my position have to do with tax dollars?


Seat belts and air bags, in some cases, cause deaths rather than prevent them. Just sayin'.

Not that I support making vaccines mandatory. I just don't think we need to make anti-vax convenient. Until infection rates are very low, you have the choice of vaccination or getting your brain tickled on a regular basis for testing.


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> Theory of herd immunity? Are you high?
> 
> Vaccines literally are part of 'theory of herd immunity'.
> It isn't a theory. The question is about a way to get immunity.
> Either natural or vaccine, or both.
> Herd immunity is still a goal
> 
> "Theory of herd immunity" - Jesus, the science deniers are starting to win


The word 'theory' means very different things in common parlance and scientific discourse. Much hilarity ensues when creationists say that evolution is 'just a theory'. Nevermind the absolutely insane mountain of evidence supporting it that would be very difficult to explain any other way.


----------



## sags

A new variant has been found in the US. They call it the Delta Plus variant.

They don't know anything about the virus yet, but it is spreading rapidly so they assume it is just as infectious as the Delta.









New 'Delta Plus' COVID Variant Detected In San Francisco Bay Area: 'It's At Least As Bad' As Original


As the Delta variant of the coronavirus fuels an ongoing COVID wave, Bay Area health experts are keeping a close eye on yet another variant: Delta Plus.




sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com


----------



## sags

The US is reaching a crisis stage. Almost every county in the US is reporting skyrocketing numbers of infections and hospitalizations. The healthcare systems in many states is close to overload. Shortages of doctors and experienced nurses is adding to the problems. Pediatricians are very concerned about the rising number of young patients and the severity of the symptoms. In some places they report many of their patients are under the age of 20.

_Over the course of the pandemic, our hospital system has diagnosed more than 15,000 children and adolescents with covid - a number that is trending up. About 10 percent of them have required hospital admission. Up to one-third of children admitted to our hospital have required critical care - including oxygen delivered through high-flow nasal cannula, non-invasive ventilation and intubation with mechanical ventilation. When I discharge children from the hospital, I know that many of them have a long road to recovery, and many will require follow-up for cardiac clearance and long-term care in our hospital's long-covid clinic. More than 300 children across the United States have died from covid since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Most children with covid will make a complete recovery, but up to 10 percent, including those with mild illness not requiring hospital admission, go on to develop months-long symptoms of long covid. _

In Canada......BC is putting restrictions back on for parts of the Province.

It was inevitable and entirely predictable.


----------



## james4beach

I've been on a mask shopping spree in the last few days. I bought a bunch of CAN95 (Canadian made) and I really like these. I also scored a few CAN99 which have a higher filtering standard, but haven't tried them yet.

In addition I bought a bunch of ASTM Level 3 masks (true medical PPE) for more routine usage.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The US is reaching a crisis stage. Almost every county in the US is reporting skyrocketing numbers of infections and hospitalizations. The healthcare systems in many states is close to overload. ...
> ...
> 
> In Canada......BC is putting restrictions back on for parts of the Province.
> 
> *It was inevitable and entirely predictable.*


 ... and alot of it preventable. Oh well ... let's see how further our health systems can hold soon with "back to school".


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> I've been on a mask shopping spree in the last few days. I bought a bunch of CAN95 (Canadian made) and I really like these. *I also scored a few CAN99 which have a higher filtering standard, but haven't tried them yet.*
> 
> In addition I bought a bunch of ASTM Level 3 masks (true medical PPE) for more routine usage.


 ... same here.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> ... same here.


I tried the CAN99 for the first time. I'm sorry to say that I'm not impressed, because it's pretty awkward to put on correctly, especially with glasses. I also introduced creases and bends in the material while I fumbled around with it.

What did you think about it @Beaver101 ? Do you wear glasses?

I think that if I was a healthcare worker and used these every day, they would be fine, but for my purposes I actually like the CAN95 better. It's much easier to put on.

My game plan for upcoming air travel is to use the Vitacore CAN95 with a KN95 mask in my backpack as a back-up.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> What did you think about it @Beaver101 ? Do you wear glasses?


 ... I haven't tried them yet and yes, I wear glasses. On appearance, they seem to be bigger as they have several folds, unlike the quick open up duckbill KN95 version. I'll let you know as soon as I try (either) one how they fit. CAN99 and CAN95. But I'm not too worry as I'm sure I can adjust .... besides, no return and will be used as each one costed me about $5 after taxes & delivery costs. Worst for me is to give them away to friends and colleagues (with bigger faces) or donate them elsewhere.

Update: Tested both CAN99 and CAN95. The former is more cumbersome to put (aside from the several unfolds) as the loops are around the head (like an N95 mask) rather than around the ears (CAN95 or KN95) but it does have a tighter fit. To get around the cumbersomeness (of either masks) is to put them on first before your eyeglasses. And remove your glasses before taking them off. I think I'll be fine with both but will reserve the CAN99 for a hospital/medical visit setting given it's the highest medical grade.


----------



## cainvest

Small sample of only one week worth of data for Canada showing cases, hospitalizations and deaths ...

No Vax 2552 205 40
Part Vax 741 13 4
Full Vax 298 19 3


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Small sample of only one week worth of data for Canada showing cases, hospitalizations and deaths ...
> 
> No Vax 2552 205 40
> Part Vax 741 13 4
> Full Vax 298 19 3


and to add to that data one needs to also consider the fact that over 2/3rds of the population are in the fully vaccinated category now and more importantly, every Canadian that has co-morbidities, like immune deficiency or are very old and frail, will almost all be in the vaccination group.


----------



## sags

The vaccine protection is wearing off quickly. We need the booster shots pronto. It will take a year to administer them.


----------



## bgc_fan

Well, there was a Canadian study done with using various drugs like hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin and fluvoxamine. Fluvoxamine was the only one to show some positive results. Inexpensive anti-depressant could be best COVID treatment yet, Canadian-led trial finds
Not the first trial, but a previous one was a lot smaller sample size: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108
The rationale for usage is that it disrupts the cytokine storm which ends up doing most of the damage. Fluvoxamine | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> and to add to that data one needs to also consider the fact that over 2/3rds of the population are in the fully vaccinated category now


The data above is dated back to July 24th so you'd have to adjust to the vaccinated rates for that time.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> The vaccine protection is wearing off quickly. We need the booster shots pronto. It will take a year to administer them.


Why would you say that? Almost everyone who got vaccinated had it done in a 3-4 month period. And we could have gone faster had we the supply.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Not only that but you have to believe that Pfizer and Moderna are still following their test subjects, from their April 2020 trials, very closely. If they saw the immunity wearing off they would announce that as quickly as they could. No one would like to confirm the need for booster shots more then these drug manufacturers.

Obviously, since we have not heard a peep from these entities, you can be pretty sure the immunity is lasting longer then 16 months and just like the energizer bunny, it is still going strong.


----------



## sags

The situation in Texas and other US states is dire.

The pediatric beds in Texas are full to capacity. Rural hospitals that need to move more seriously ill covid patients call hospitals all over the US but can't find a bed.

The situation is deteriorating by the minute and the politicians seem paralyzed into inaction. They could set up more ICU beds, but they are already working short staffed.

Nurses are working long shifts, stay in nearby hotels, and work the next day. It has been going on for weeks. They are completely worn out.

We must do all we can to avoid a similar situation in Canada.


----------



## sags

andrewf said:


> Why would you say that? Almost everyone who got vaccinated had it done in a 3-4 month period. And we could have gone faster had we the supply.


The manufacturers will have to supply both vaccines and boosters. Much of the world still needs vaccine.

My wife was fully vaccinated with Pfizer in April. We are now heading into the 5th month.

According to the Mayo Clinic study.....her effectiveness from Pfizer is declining to as low as 46% in a month or so.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> The vaccine protection is wearing off quickly. We need the booster shots pronto. It will take a year to administer them.


Why a year? Took less than 6 months for everyone who wants one to get a shot…..I assume we‘ve learned a few things and are faster now. Unless you think supply is an issue.


----------



## sags

Supply has already been identified as an issue.

Do the manufacturers switch production from vaccine to booster shots ?

Canada has a good vaccination rate but we don't make all the decisions on who makes what and when., and we likely will be standing in line again.

If you are correct and only 50% of the US population "wants a shot" and much of the world has low vaccination rates........the pandemic is far from over.

In my mind, the status quo means we are just waiting around for a more deadly variant to appear and take over from the Delta.


----------



## damian13ster

Booster shots are exactly the same as all other shots. No need to switch any production.
Why do you think shares of moderna, biontech, and pfizer are skyrocketing?
They came out and said no need for more spending on research, we will just sell exactly the same product again, and again


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> The US is reaching a crisis stage. Almost every county in the US is reporting skyrocketing numbers of infections and hospitalizations.


I was talking today with a friend. His cousin lives in Florida, and caught covid:

29 year old male, very athletic (he's a lifeguard)
Not vaccinated
Caught covid and was coughing up blood
Went to hospital, has pneumonia in both lungs
Scans found large masses in his lungs


----------



## Money172375

*Ontario to mandate vaccines for hospital workers, give booster shots to the vulnerable, and halt further reopening, per Toronto Star*


----------



## Money172375

Two days ago, they were planning on removing all restrictions next week. And where is Ford….haven’t seen him at all lately. Wonder if he’ll lay low or become more visible with the Fed election.


----------



## Money172375

Two days ago, they were planning on removing all restrictions next week. And where is Ford….haven’t seen him at all lately. Wonder if he’ll lay low or become more visible with the Fed election.


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> *Ontario to mandate vaccines for hospital workers, give booster shots to the vulnerable, and halt further reopening, per Toronto Star*


_Ontario will mandate vaccines for hospital and long-term-care workers and begin targeted COVID-19 booster shots while keeping current pandemic restrictions indefinitely, the Star has learned.

Against the backdrop of the pandemic’s fourth wave, Dr. Kieran Moore, the chief medical officer of health, will announce the sweeping measures next Tuesday, including a pause on any further reopening of the economy.

“The watchword is caution,” said a senior Progressive Conservative government official, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations

“We’re trying to be cautious. Nobody wants to lock down the economy again,” the official said as Ontario recorded 510 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, the vast majority of which were among unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people.

To that end, Moore will use his authority to issue a “vaccine mandate directive” for doctors, nurses, and “anyone patient-facing” working in hospitals, long-term-care homes, and in home-care.

“You will be asked to get your shots and if you haven’t, you will be asked why not. If you don’t have it, you will need a medical exemption,” said a second high-ranking government official.

“There will be a requirement for an education session (on the merits of vaccines) if you refuse to be vaccinated,” the official added.

“If you still continue to refuse, you will be required to get regularly tested (for COVID-19) twice a week,” the insider said, noting those who don’t get their shots could be transferred to other duties so they don’t deal directly with patients.

A third senior government official emphasized that “nobody is getting fired” for not getting vaccinated.

“We already don’t have enough nurses … and PSWs (personal support workers),” the third source said, acknowledging fears of an exodus of staffers but expressing hope education efforts are fruitful.

While Premier Doug Ford had reservations about the vaccine mandate due to concerns about civil liberties and privacy, Moore convinced him it was the right way to go.

“The premier and the doctor are in constant daily contact,” the third insider said.

But two sources said Long Term Care Minister Rod Phillips played a key role in the change after undertaking a province-wide “surprise inspection” tour of nursing homes.

“Phillips took it upon himself to do it and we’re glad he did,” said the second source, noting the minister’s unannounced visits with inspectors from his department were illuminating.

“He found pockets (of unvaccinated staff) in LTC homes. It some places it was only 60 per cent vaccinated. That’s concerning.”

The nursing home revelations came even though, overall, 91 per cent of staff and 99 per cent of residents are vaccinated.

Of Ontario’s 9,416 pandemic deaths since March 2020, 3,985 were residents of long-term-care homes and 10 were workers.

Also on Tuesday, Moore will unveil a new booster program that will begin dispensing third shots as soon as this month.

“As a first step it’s for vulnerable elderly people and the immunocompromised, such as cancer patients,” the second insider said.

“This is targeted and not for the broader population at this time. We want to follow the scientific advice and evidence.”

The first official conceded vaccines are not quite a pandemic panacea — because even those fully vaccinated can still get COVID-19, though they are far less likely to be hospitalized.

“It’s a rain jacket, it’s not a Kevlar vest,” said the first insider.

On Friday, Phillips told CBC Radio’s Ottawa Morning that “booster shots are going to be an important part of continuing to protect our long-term-care residents.”

“I’ve spoken to our chief medical officer about that a number of times,” the minister said.

Earlier this week, Moore said “people who are unvaccinated are approximately eight times more likely to get infected with COVID-19, compared to fully vaccinated individuals.”

“Unvaccinated adults, 60 years of age and older are approximately 15 times more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID-19, compared to those fully vaccinated. So if you haven’t, roll up your sleeves to get your shot,” the top doctor said.

While Moore had indicated Ontario would by next week achieve his threshold for fully reopening with 80 per cent having had one shot and 75 per cent with both shots, that liberalization is now on hold.

That means step three capacity restrictions will continue with limits of up to 100 people for outdoor social gatherings and up to 25 people indoors.

Restaurants will have to retain safe distances between tables, retailers will also have to ensure physical distancing in their shops, and gyms will be kept at half capacity.

Similarly, there will still be restrictions on how many people can be in theatres, cinemas, concerts, museums, casinos, and bingo halls.

“We’ve seen an uptick in cases and we’ve seen an uptick in hospitalizations, so we are going to roll things out in a prudent and responsible manner,” said the second insider.

Also next week, Moore will send a letter “signalling his support for colleges and universities” to continue their efforts to make vaccines mandatory on campus in the wake of moves by Western University and others.

However, Ford remains opposed to a provincial proof of vaccination certificate despite calls from the New Democrats, Liberals, Greens, business groups like the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, and doctors’ and nurses’ associations.

“The government at present has not been reviewing any passport for internal purposes,” Moore told reporters earlier this week before Ottawa announced its plans for a vaccination passport.

“We’re certainly working with the federal government,” the doctor said.

Indeed, Tory sources insisted Ford “welcomed” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s pre-election announcement of a national vaccine passport system._


----------



## damian13ster

gibor365 said:


> _Ontario will mandate vaccines for hospital and long-term-care workers and begin targeted COVID-19 booster shots while keeping current pandemic restrictions indefinitely, the Star has learned.
> 
> Against the backdrop of the pandemic’s fourth wave, Dr. Kieran Moore, the chief medical officer of health, will announce the sweeping measures next Tuesday, including a pause on any further reopening of the economy.
> 
> “The watchword is caution,” said a senior Progressive Conservative government official, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations
> 
> “We’re trying to be cautious. Nobody wants to lock down the economy again,” the official said as Ontario recorded 510 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, the vast majority of which were among unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people.
> 
> To that end, Moore will use his authority to issue a “vaccine mandate directive” for doctors, nurses, and “anyone patient-facing” working in hospitals, long-term-care homes, and in home-care.
> 
> “You will be asked to get your shots and if you haven’t, you will be asked why not. If you don’t have it, you will need a medical exemption,” said a second high-ranking government official.
> 
> “There will be a requirement for an education session (on the merits of vaccines) if you refuse to be vaccinated,” the official added.
> 
> “If you still continue to refuse, you will be required to get regularly tested (for COVID-19) twice a week,” the insider said, noting those who don’t get their shots could be transferred to other duties so they don’t deal directly with patients.
> 
> A third senior government official emphasized that “nobody is getting fired” for not getting vaccinated.
> 
> “We already don’t have enough nurses … and PSWs (personal support workers),” the third source said, acknowledging fears of an exodus of staffers but expressing hope education efforts are fruitful.
> 
> While Premier Doug Ford had reservations about the vaccine mandate due to concerns about civil liberties and privacy, Moore convinced him it was the right way to go.
> 
> “The premier and the doctor are in constant daily contact,” the third insider said.
> 
> But two sources said Long Term Care Minister Rod Phillips played a key role in the change after undertaking a province-wide “surprise inspection” tour of nursing homes.
> 
> “Phillips took it upon himself to do it and we’re glad he did,” said the second source, noting the minister’s unannounced visits with inspectors from his department were illuminating.
> 
> “He found pockets (of unvaccinated staff) in LTC homes. It some places it was only 60 per cent vaccinated. That’s concerning.”
> 
> The nursing home revelations came even though, overall, 91 per cent of staff and 99 per cent of residents are vaccinated.
> 
> Of Ontario’s 9,416 pandemic deaths since March 2020, 3,985 were residents of long-term-care homes and 10 were workers.
> 
> Also on Tuesday, Moore will unveil a new booster program that will begin dispensing third shots as soon as this month.
> 
> “As a first step it’s for vulnerable elderly people and the immunocompromised, such as cancer patients,” the second insider said.
> 
> “This is targeted and not for the broader population at this time. We want to follow the scientific advice and evidence.”
> 
> The first official conceded vaccines are not quite a pandemic panacea — because even those fully vaccinated can still get COVID-19, though they are far less likely to be hospitalized.
> 
> “It’s a rain jacket, it’s not a Kevlar vest,” said the first insider.
> 
> On Friday, Phillips told CBC Radio’s Ottawa Morning that “booster shots are going to be an important part of continuing to protect our long-term-care residents.”
> 
> “I’ve spoken to our chief medical officer about that a number of times,” the minister said.
> 
> Earlier this week, Moore said “people who are unvaccinated are approximately eight times more likely to get infected with COVID-19, compared to fully vaccinated individuals.”
> 
> “Unvaccinated adults, 60 years of age and older are approximately 15 times more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID-19, compared to those fully vaccinated. So if you haven’t, roll up your sleeves to get your shot,” the top doctor said.
> 
> While Moore had indicated Ontario would by next week achieve his threshold for fully reopening with 80 per cent having had one shot and 75 per cent with both shots, that liberalization is now on hold.
> 
> That means step three capacity restrictions will continue with limits of up to 100 people for outdoor social gatherings and up to 25 people indoors.
> 
> Restaurants will have to retain safe distances between tables, retailers will also have to ensure physical distancing in their shops, and gyms will be kept at half capacity.
> 
> Similarly, there will still be restrictions on how many people can be in theatres, cinemas, concerts, museums, casinos, and bingo halls.
> 
> “We’ve seen an uptick in cases and we’ve seen an uptick in hospitalizations, so we are going to roll things out in a prudent and responsible manner,” said the second insider.
> 
> Also next week, Moore will send a letter “signalling his support for colleges and universities” to continue their efforts to make vaccines mandatory on campus in the wake of moves by Western University and others.
> 
> However, Ford remains opposed to a provincial proof of vaccination certificate despite calls from the New Democrats, Liberals, Greens, business groups like the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, and doctors’ and nurses’ associations.
> 
> “The government at present has not been reviewing any passport for internal purposes,” Moore told reporters earlier this week before Ottawa announced its plans for a vaccination passport.
> 
> “We’re certainly working with the federal government,” the doctor said.
> 
> Indeed, Tory sources insisted Ford “welcomed” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s pre-election announcement of a national vaccine passport system._


There are estimations that anywhere between 11-20% of healthcare workers chose not to get vaccinated.
I wonder what the governments are going to do if majority of those simply walk out of the job


----------



## gibor365

damian13ster said:


> There are estimations that anywhere between 11-20% of healthcare workers chose not to get vaccinated.
> I wonder what the governments are going to do if majority of those simply walk out of the job


I don’t think you believe it will happen.😁.. I’m sure that 99.9% will comply


----------



## gibor365

Even more me measures are coming








Canada to make COVID vaccines mandatory for all federal employees, airline, rail and cruise ship passengers


The federal government said Friday this extends to all crown corporations and includes employees in the air, rail and marine transportation sectors. The announcement also included mandatory vaccinations for all airline, rail, and cruise ship passengers.




www.google.ca




Imho, in a couple of months we gonna have about 90% vaccination rate


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> There are estimations that anywhere between 11-20% of healthcare workers chose not to get vaccinated.
> I wonder what the governments are going to do if majority of those simply walk out of the job


 ... everyone can go on the internet and play doctors and nurses. DIY.


----------



## damian13ster

gibor365 said:


> I don’t think you believe it will happen.😁.. I’m sure that 99.9% will comply


Don't think they will have to. It is simply more political posturing and there will be zero consequences for telling them to 'shove it'


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> Not only that but you have to believe that Pfizer and Moderna are still following their test subjects, from their April 2020 trials, very closely. If they saw the immunity wearing off they would announce that as quickly as they could. No one would like to confirm the need for booster shots more then these drug manufacturers.
> 
> Obviously, since we have not heard a peep from these entities, you can be pretty sure the immunity is lasting longer then 16 months and just like the energizer bunny, it is still going strong.


Might just be that the evidence is not strong that booster shots provide much benefit. We are seeing plenty of breakthrough cases, some leading to severe illness. Clearly still better than being unvaccinated, but you're starting to hear the narrative shift from "get vaccinated and life goes back to normal" to "the vaccine is not a kevlar vest, it's a rain jacket".


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> The manufacturers will have to supply both vaccines and boosters. Much of the world still needs vaccine.
> 
> My wife was fully vaccinated with Pfizer in April. We are now heading into the 5th month.
> 
> According to the Mayo Clinic study.....her effectiveness from Pfizer is declining to as low as 46% in a month or so.


Canada transitioned to a state of vaccine hesitancy being the barrier to further vaccination, not supply or ability to administer shots about a month ago. Canada has millions of doses in storage, waiting for arms to inject them into.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> Might just be that the evidence is not strong that booster shots provide much benefit. We are seeing plenty of breakthrough cases, some leading to severe illness. Clearly still better than being unvaccinated, but you're starting to hear the narrative shift from "get vaccinated and life goes back to normal" to "the vaccine is not a kevlar vest, it's a rain jacket".


I am pretty sure the Drug manufacturers could spin the story in favour of another $20 shot for everyone if they could confirm the immunity was waning. It obviously is not waning.

As for the shot not being the kevlar vest is should be. That is more of a function of too much of the older simple information and most of it without enough detail to see the larger more accurate picture. Most breakthroughs are simple infections. I know most of our population thought vaccines were supposed to keep you from getting infected. Very few ever did. They allow you to fight it off more quickly. That helps considerably to ensure you don't get a trip to the hospital and/or die. Although a smaller percentage of hospitalizations are vaccinated people, when the stats people get around to describing who these people actually are, they are overwhelmingly the ones who have immune compromised issues, a few other health issues or are very, very old and frail. All those people, of course, will unfortuneately always be in the vaccinated group of stats, providing most of the confusion in effectiveness.

There, of course, are a few exceptions, but with the number of people in the world now vaccinated, those could easily be attributable to errors in vaccination, unknown co-morbidities and of course the odds are that a few people in this world are just going to end up exposing themselves to an outlandish size dose of infection, that would take down double vaccinated Tarzan.

The last time I had the flu, I would certainly not describe it as a mild infection but I also did not think that we needed to lockdown the population and shut down our businesses. When we look at Covid from a vaccinated perspective, it is probably less concerning then that. It is down to a pandemic of the unvaccinated and soon enough of those will either be vaccinated or naturally inoculated from a recovered infection. When that happens (maybe 10 months more for what we need), most of this confusing information will stop being so confusing, and most people will probably stop caring.


----------



## sags

andrewf said:


> Canada transitioned to a state of vaccine hesitancy being the barrier to further vaccination, not supply or ability to administer shots about a month ago. Canada has millions of doses in storage, waiting for arms to inject them into.


That is assuming the booster will simply be an additional shot of the vaccine.

From what I have read Pfizer and Moderna were "developing" a booster and both of them had several different prototypes in research and testing.

One of the options included the original vaccine, while the others addressed the specific structure of the Delta virus.

Have they decided the original vaccine is sufficient for the Delta despite the breakthrough cases ?

Or is it possibly a second best option until they fine tune the booster shots to the Delta virus and complete all the testing ?


----------



## sags

A press release that we have an LTC home in our city with 3 covid patients. They were all fully vaccinated so they are breakthrough cases.


----------



## andrewf

The vaccines are not as effective against delta or lambda, which are both significantly more infectious. In one study, Pfizer was shown to be only 42% effective against delta for infection. 

So, I'm not sure Optsy's confidence about the enduring effectiveness of our current vaccines is warranted. We're very lucky to have them, but I don't think COVID is over.









Pfizer's vaccine could be less effective against the Delta variant, study suggests, even though vaccines help prevent serious illness or death


The preprint charted the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines given out in the Mayo Clinic Health System in Minnesota between January and July.




www.businessinsider.com


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> So, I'm not sure Optsy's confidence about the enduring effectiveness of our current vaccines is warranted.


Many studies are showing very good results against Delta, especially for hospitalizations which is a key point to focus on.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I never said covid is over. I also didn't know we had invented a better vaccine either. So with the fact that the vaccines we have are currently the best we are going to get, whatever effectiveness they have is going to have to work. Luckily if you look closer at the data, as opposed to worrying about things that may or may not happen in the future, one will see that the vaccines are working just fine for all variants of concern for the vast majority of vaccinated people.

Anyway, if you want to live in fear or come up with a reason not to go back to work or just like alarming people, I agree there is lots of data to point to, that will help with your argument. That said, even if you were right, and you are not, there is nothing left for us to do, at this time, but to face the virus. If you want to wear a mask a little longer and avoid your friends for the fall/winter fine, but the rest of us will be going on with our lives until something new actually develops.

This is not over-confidence by any measure. It is precisely the right amount of confidence the actual covid data should give anyone.


----------



## damian13ster

It will never be over.
It is no longer a pandemic.
It is now endemic.


----------



## sags

cainvest said:


> Many studies are showing very good results against Delta, especially for hospitalizations which is a key point to focus on.


Even without hospitalizations....if there is no immunity and with the virus so infectious, people could get infected repeatedly.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Even without hospitalizations....if there is no immunity and with the virus so infectious, people could get infected repeatedly.


So? Who gives a **** if it leads to no hospitalizations?
There is thousands of viruses and bacteria in your body that can be harmful yet are mostly asymptomatic unless your immune system absolutely screws up.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Even without hospitalizations....if there is no immunity and with the virus so infectious, people could get infected repeatedly.


In the microbe world, what does not kill you makes you stronger. That is how humanity eventually gets over these pandemics. We are all being infected by benign viruses all the time. That has always been a fact of life.

I am starting to worry that many people on this board, and probably in the world, are starting to transition from being covid cautious to becoming covid phobic. The problem with this is if you let that type of thing continue unchecked, for too long, you might eventually become virus phobic. Trust me, that type of mental disorder will become much more of a problem for you then anything covid could ever do to you, especially now, if you have received 2 doses of vaccine.

Eventually we all have to face this virus. That was always the plan, after vaccination. The vaccine will either work or it will not but facing this virus is a fact of life. Lucky for us the vaccines are working quite well.


----------



## andrewf

The number of kids hospitalized with Covid in the U.S. hits a record high


The number of children hospitalized with Covid-19 in the United States hit a record high of just over 1,900 on Saturday.




www.cnbc.com





I don't think we're at the stage yet where we should not care about the virus spreading. Even if I am at little personal risk from infection due to my vaccination status, I come into contact with family and friends that are not vaccinated (including children). For their sake, I try to avoid unnecessarily risky situations. 

We should continue with a state of affairs where the reproductive number is less than 1. Continuing to increase contact while levels of infection are rising is inevitably going to lead to another wave and another lockdown.


----------



## damian13ster

andrewf said:


> The number of kids hospitalized with Covid in the U.S. hits a record high
> 
> 
> The number of children hospitalized with Covid-19 in the United States hit a record high of just over 1,900 on Saturday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I don't think we're at the stage yet where we should not care about the virus spreading. Even if I am at little personal risk from infection due to my vaccination status, I come into contact with family and friends that are not vaccinated (including children). For their sake, I try to avoid unnecessarily risky situations.
> 
> We should continue with a state of affairs where the reproductive number is less than 1. Continuing to increase contact while levels of infection are rising is inevitably going to lead to another wave and another lockdown.











Code Pink campaign: Children are in the grip of a mental health crisis, hospitals and advocates warn


With a dramatic increase in hospital admission rates for suicide attempts and substance abuse among children during the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian hospitals and advocates are calling on the government to do something about the alarming mental health crisis.




www.ctvnews.ca





Pick your poison.
Calgary just beat a record for anxiety-induced hospitalizations among children.

Over 20 times more children die by suicide than by COVID.
And that was before the 100% increase (number for suicide used was pre-pandemic)


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> I am starting to worry that many people on this board, and probably in the world, are starting to transition from being covid cautious to becoming covid phobic.


Nothing to worry about from what I'm seeing here. With our restrictions pretty much gone people are resuming their regular activities.


----------



## damian13ster

Research article about ADE concerns with Delta variant:





__





DEFINE_ME






www.journalofinfection.com


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> The number of kids hospitalized with Covid in the U.S. hits a record high
> 
> 
> The number of children hospitalized with Covid-19 in the United States hit a record high of just over 1,900 on Saturday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We should continue with a state of affairs where the reproductive number is less than 1. Continuing to increase contact while levels of infection are rising is inevitably going to lead to another wave and another lockdown.


If we did that we would be having these same conversations in the year 2031.

I assumed we all understood that we should go on with our lives when the threat of death is reduced to a manageable number. It will never be zero. The original covid had a death rate of about 1% of infections. That was all with unvaccinated people. We know that vaccination can bring that number down again to single percentages again, of that 1%.

At some point in time one just has to open up their eyes and see that there are way too many other dangers in life that far surpass this, that don't hold us back at all. We also have to see that attempting to keep get that number even lower has far larger consequences to our society then simply facing this virus with the low risk it provides without precaution. If you have something specific that makes your personal risk higher, then by all means, wear a mask and avoid other people, but for the majority of vaccinated people, crossing the street has probably become more risky then covid-19, no matter what variant we want to use in the analysis.


----------



## sags

The problem with focusing entirely on hospitalizations and deaths, is that it completely ignores the most significant problem of the virus mutating as it spreads.

The Delta is a variant........and look at how that is working out. It may not be the worst variant the virus will spawn if it has the opportunity to do so.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> The problem with focusing entirely on hospitalizations and deaths, is that it completely ignores the most significant problem of the virus mutating as it spreads.


The virus mutating isn't the most significant problem, people getting seriously ill and dying is.


----------



## Beaver101

All of New Zealand enters 3-day hard lockdown over single COVID-19 case

Imagine this was imposed in North America. 



> ...
> The country has overall reported about 2,500 confirmed coronavirus cases and 26 related deaths.
> 
> Ardern said that under the level-four lockdown people must stay at home, leaving only for essential services. Protective face masks should be worn at all times when leaving home.
> 
> "Beating Delta means lifting our game," Ardern said.
> 
> "I ask New Zealanders to please follow the rules to the letter. *We know from evidence overseas that the Delta variant can spread just by walking past someone*."


 ... I wonder where NZ's PM Ardern got the bolded info.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> All of New Zealand enters 3-day hard lockdown over single COVID-19 case
> 
> Imagine this was imposed in North America.
> 
> ... I wonder where NZ's PM Ardern got the bolded info.


She is a politician. Lying is in job description.


----------



## Beaver101

^ That's a pretty glaring lie - right on the front page news.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> All of New Zealand enters 3-day hard lockdown over single COVID-19 case
> 
> Imagine this was imposed in North America.
> 
> ... I wonder where NZ's PM Ardern got the bolded info.


Probably from what happened in Australia:
_New South Wales state Premier Gladys Berejiklian said health officials expected the outbreak in Australia's most populous city to continue growing in the coming days, after several people were infected in just "fleeting" non-physical contact with a case in a cafe and a large shopping centre._

It's already been mentioned that it is pretty contagious, comparable to chickenpox. 'The war has changed' - CDC warns of delta variant's extreme contagiousness, severity

Edit: But more to your point about NA, we can't even get people to mask. You can draw your conclusions from that.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> I assumed we all understood that we should go on with our lives when the threat of death is reduced to a manageable number. It will never be zero. The original covid had a death rate of about 1% of infections. That was all with unvaccinated people. We know that vaccination can bring that number down again to single percentages again, of that 1%.


You're overlooking the secondary effect of increased hospitalization and health care burden. Staffing and resources need to be increased if we're going to be looking at an elevated steady state rate of hospitalization. If this is only a temporary blip, that's one thing. But if it is going to be the new normal that there's always going to be people hospitalized, then that's another.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> You're overlooking the secondary effect of increased hospitalization and health care burden. Staffing and resources need to be increased if we're going to be looking at an elevated steady state rate of hospitalization.


If we can get very high vaccination rates then health care system stress will likely remain low. Of course if a covid wave hits combined with flu wave, that could cause some trouble.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> If we can get very high vaccination rates then health care system stress will likely remain low. Of course if a covid wave hits combined with flu wave, that could cause some trouble.


There's always a lot of ifs, and uncertainties. Obviously the ICU and emergency departments are resourced to a certain caseload, but if we expect the caseload to jump on the possibility of both waves hitting at once, do we resource accordingly or just run short staffed for that period? The obvious tradeoff is if that doesn't happen, then we may be wasting resources. It's one of those catch-22s that we saw during the peak of the covid waves: people complaining that we should have more ICU/emergency beds, but if we normally have a low occupancy rate, then we'd have people complaining that we have too many resources that aren't being used.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> There's always a lot of ifs, and uncertainties. Obviously the ICU and emergency departments are resourced to a certain caseload, but if we expect the caseload to jump on the possibility of both waves hitting at once, do we resource accordingly or just run short staffed for that period? The obvious tradeoff is if that doesn't happen, then we may be wasting resources. It's one of those catch-22s that we saw during the peak of the covid waves: people complaining that we should have more ICU/emergency beds, but if we normally have a low occupancy rate, then we'd have people complaining that we have too many resources that aren't being used.


There was a quote from a famous doctor in Poland (I think he was first one in the world to perform heart transplant but might be other organ - memory is shady):
"from beds alone, you can make a whorehouse, not a hospital".
If there is no staff then increasing amount of beds isn't going to help.
Luckly in 2020 ICU utilization was lower than in any of previous 5 years


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> You're overlooking the secondary effect of increased hospitalization and health care burden. Staffing and resources need to be increased if we're going to be looking at an elevated steady state rate of hospitalization. If this is only a temporary blip, that's one thing. But if it is going to be the new normal that there's always going to be people hospitalized, then that's another.


You are overlooking the point that over 75% of our population (vaccinated) will not be needing the hospital for covid reasons and the majority of the other 25% are much younger and never needed much of it in the first place.

How it actually turns out, with all these new variables, shall be interesting in the fall. I agree. If we get this infection rate up high enough we might give the hospitals some going concern, but we need to keep in mind that we eventually need to get these unvaccinated people inoculated somehow or we are going to be dealing with this issue for wayyyy too long of time (many years). So the best approach is to let the infection rate rise, as it has been by increasingly opening up the economy and if for some reason the virus hits the unvaccinated too quickly, sending more then we like to the hospital, we should deal with that then. If it does happen, it should be the last time. Soon we will have so many Canadians vaccinated or naturally inoculated (recovered infection) that the probability of overwhelming our hospitals ever again, will never be very high again. At that time the Canadian pandemic will be over and that is what we should strive for.

This is the only endgame available to any country on this planet. Vaccine passports, properly directed (bars, restaurants, travel and my favorite, hair salons) would be a quicker and better approach to get more vaccinated, but too many of our governments prefer to give these people the freedom to die and overwhelm our hospitals instead, so natural inoculation (infection) is the only remaining option for us. So lets get on with it.


----------



## andrewf

cainvest said:


> If we can get very high vaccination rates then health care system stress will likely remain low. Of course if a covid wave hits combined with flu wave, that could cause some trouble.


Israel has a high vaccination rate and cases are growing exponentially. High vaccination rates help us remain more open, but we still need distancing for now. Delta is getting into measles territory of infectiousness.


----------



## sags

Areas that opened up.......notably the US states are a disaster. Why would we want to mimic their failures ?


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> You are overlooking the point that over 75% of our population (vaccinated) will not be needing the hospital for covid reasons and the majority of the other 25% are much younger and never needed much of it in the first place.


Considering that there are breakthroughs, that's not a safe assumption. Even if it is a small percentage of those infected require hospitalization, if you increase the amount of infected, that small percentage is still going to result in cases.


----------



## sags

One problem with opening up to see what happens, means it is already too late when patients start to flood into the hospitals.

There is a time lag with infections of a couple of weeks or longer, as the infection spreads and infections take time to develop.

That is why we have 14 day quarantines.


----------



## sags

andrewf said:


> Israel has a high vaccination rate and cases are growing exponentially. High vaccination rates help us remain more open, but we still need distancing for now. Delta is getting into measles territory of infectiousness.


Israel was the model everyone wanting to remove all restrictions pointed to as the example.

Now they don't want to use Israel as an example because it doesn't fit their narrative anymore.

We already know what happens when restrictions are removed........see Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, Arkansas........etc.

To follow down their path to a crisis would be foolhardy in the extreme.


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> Israel has a high vaccination rate and cases are growing exponentially. High vaccination rates help us remain more open, but we still need distancing for now. Delta is getting into measles territory of infectiousness.


Last I checked Canada now has higher vax rates. 
I still think we need more fully vaccinated though but it's a great start.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> Considering that there are breakthroughs, that's not a safe assumption. Even if it is a small percentage of those infected require hospitalization, if you increase the amount of infected, that small percentage is still going to result in cases.


True but with high vax levels it should be far less than previous waves. If hospitalizations climb they can easily add other measures back in, we all know the drill now.


----------



## Spudd

damian13ster said:


> Research article about ADE concerns with Delta variant:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DEFINE_ME
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.journalofinfection.com


However, although the results obtained so far have been rather reassuring1, to the best of our knowledge ADE of Delta variants has not been specifically assessed.


----------



## Beaver101

cainvest said:


> True but with high vax levels it should be far less than previous waves. If hospitalizations climb they can easily add other measures back in, we all know the drill now.


 ... while we know the drill, we don't want/need surprises.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Considering that there are breakthroughs, that's not a safe assumption. Even if it is a small percentage of those infected require hospitalization, if you increase the amount of infected, that small percentage is still going to result in cases.


Most of the breakthroughs do not require hospitalization.

In any case. You are missing the larger point. What choice do we have?

Am I the only one here planning to end this pandemic, as opposed to treating it or living with it within a protected, precautioned mask wearing. people avoiding, society? I did not make up the rules of this problem. I am simply taking all the known variables, putting them together and figuring out a way to put this thing to bed. End it for good.

Right now, The only lasting issue our society has with this pandemic is hospitalizations, and only if they get too high at some point in time. The only way we can ever get any certainty that we can keep those hospitalizations down to a manageable number, is through immunizing our population. If we cannot get enough people to take the vaccine the only other option is infection. Why is that so hard for people to see. Please feel free to point out another way, that is something more then a delay, but I can't see it.

Am I the only one that wants this over?


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> Most of the breakthroughs do not require hospitalization.
> 
> In any case. You are missing the larger point. What choice do we have?
> 
> Am I the only one here planning to end this pandemic, as opposed to treating it or living with it within a protected, precautioned mask wearing. people avoiding, society? I did not make up the rules of this problem. I am simply taking all the known variables, putting them together and figuring out a way to put this thing to bed. End it for good.
> 
> Right now, The only lasting issue our society has with this pandemic is hospitalizations, and only if they get too high at some point in time. The only way we can ever get any certainty that we can keep those hospitalizations down to a manageable number, is through immunizing our population. If we cannot get enough people to take the vaccine the only other option is infection. Why is that so hard for people to see. Please feel free to point out another way, that is something more then a delay, but I can't see it.
> 
> Am I the only one that wants this over?


Nope.

But realistically, if we leave the pot on the stove, we may come back to find it boiled over. It takes time to rein in spread, and if we go from 500 cases per day to 5000 it may require overcorrection to bring back under control. I think caution in reopening this fall is warranted. Seasonality has been helping us keep spread low, and probably making us complacent. Ontario has had higher cases than the same time last year all summer. Heading into fall could see a quite major wave indeed. And 20% unvaccinated getting hit by a much tougher Delta variant is still enough to bring our health care system to its knees. Never mind having high levels of infection in the community leading to unnecessary risk for ineligible Canadians, mainly children. Children may eventually be able to be vaccinated, likely next year. How many children are an acceptable sacrifice to the reopening gods?

Maybe I'm not willing to sacrifice too many kids so I can have chicken wings at the pub. Call me crazy.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> True but with high vax levels it should be far less than previous waves. If hospitalizations climb they can easily add other measures back in, we all know the drill now.


Should know, but given public sentiment and how people react to minor social distancing polices, it's not a given.



OptsyEagle said:


> In any case. You are missing the larger point. What choice do we have?
> 
> Am I the only one here planning to end this pandemic, as opposed to treating it or living with it within a protected, precautioned mask wearing. people avoiding, society? I did not make up the rules of this problem. I am simply taking all the known variables, putting them together and figuring out a way to put this thing to bed. End it for good.


My point is that you can have the other things, but you have to accommodate, i.e. properly prepare the hospitals in case of a severe outbreak. You can't just carry on as if nothing happened.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> Maybe I'm not willing to sacrifice too many kids so I can have chicken wings at the pub. Call me crazy.


Let's leave the nonsense out of this. OK.

Look, how many infections we can or can't handle will only be determined when the hospitalizations start to rise a lot...or not too much. No one knows. Most breakthough infections should not even be called infections but that is a discussion for another time. In any case, breakthroughs rarely end up in hospitals and when they do they are almost all co-morbitiy issues. So we are certainly at a stage of the vaccination program where there is as much of a chance that we can get on with our lives without causing a problem with our hospitals as the opposite. I think we should let it go a little longer to find out where we are.

If we don't get on with this reopening we are just delaying the problem, not solving it. The virus is going to get around. That cannot be stopped. Thanksgiving and Christmas will be on for many, many more people, this year, that missed out last year but feel it is safer this year. The virus will spread anyway. I just think we should not bother shutting down or limiting businesses that really do not add too much to that spread. As for mask wearing. Couldn't really care less. It won't matter, because no one will be wearing a mask during their Christmas dinner, so it won't delay the end game too much anyway.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> My point is that you can have the other things, but you have to accommodate, i.e. properly prepare the hospitals in case of a severe outbreak. You can't just carry on as if nothing happened.


Sure, but to limit society BEFORE anything happens, when there is solid information telling us it might not happen, is just as risky.

At some point, we need to understand that every infection that does not happen becomes an infection we have to worry about in the future. We are not going to avoid them. That cannot be done. And remember most infections are benign, but the worry never is. That is my point.


----------



## damian13ster

andrewf said:


> Nope.
> 
> But realistically, if we leave the pot on the stove, we may come back to find it boiled over. It takes time to rein in spread, and if we go from 500 cases per day to 5000 it may require overcorrection to bring back under control. I think caution in reopening this fall is warranted. Seasonality has been helping us keep spread low, and probably making us complacent. Ontario has had higher cases than the same time last year all summer. Heading into fall could see a quite major wave indeed. And 20% unvaccinated getting hit by a much tougher Delta variant is still enough to bring our health care system to its knees. Never mind having high levels of infection in the community leading to unnecessary risk for ineligible Canadians, mainly children. Children may eventually be able to be vaccinated, likely next year. How many children are an acceptable sacrifice to the reopening gods?
> 
> Maybe I'm not willing to sacrifice too many kids so I can have chicken wings at the pub. Call me crazy.


20 times higher suicide deaths than covid deaths among children.
No official numbers yet for 2021 on deaths, but we know what hospitalizations from suicide attempts are up 100-200% depending on a region.
You are sacrificing 20-40x more children by not opening up than you are by closing down.


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> Children may eventually be able to be vaccinated, likely next year. How many children are an acceptable sacrifice to the reopening gods?


I guess as a guideline the same number that die from the flu each year?


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Sure, but to limit society BEFORE anything happens, when there is solid information telling us it might not happen, is just as risky.


Except you have to prepare for the possibility, and you're not always going to have all the information. There's a federal pandemic playbook that should be followed with policies and it requires some updating. For example, back in Dec 2019/Jan 2020 there were indications of a new virus coming out of China. Would we have been better served if with shut down the borders completely (assuming we could shut down the US border)? Would that have been an acceptable response at the time? In hindsight, some people argue that we should have, but I bet in the Jan/Feb timeframe everyone would be up in arms if we completely sealed our borders. If sealing the borders gave us the same covid as Australia/NZ, would that have been seen as an over-reaction when compared to what we have?


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> 20 times higher suicide deaths than covid deaths among children.
> No official numbers yet for 2021 on deaths, but we know what hospitalizations from suicide attempts are up 100-200% depending on a region.
> You are sacrificing 20-40x more children by not opening up than you are by closing down.


You want to back up the assertion that there has been an increase in suicide deaths due to the lockdown?
Here's a counter: DEFINE_ME
And another: Suicide deaths have declined during the pandemic, but experts warn the toll might be yet to come


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Except you have to prepare for the possibility, and you're not always going to have all the information. There's a federal pandemic playbook that should be followed with policies and it requires some updating. For example, back in Dec 2019/Jan 2020 there were indications of a new virus coming out of China. Would we have been better served if with shut down the borders completely (assuming we could shut down the US border)? Would that have been an acceptable response at the time? In hindsight, some people argue that we should have, but I bet in the Jan/Feb timeframe everyone would be up in arms if we completely sealed our borders. If sealing the borders gave us the same covid as Australia/NZ, would that have been seen as an over-reaction when compared to what we have?


None of that addresses the question of whether we should limit economic activity because something MIGHT happen to our hospitals.

There can be no precise answer to the hospital question, at this time, so we need to take things further to get a better picture. Right now our hospitals are fine, with respect to covid. Again, it is not without cost and pain to limit economic activity. Contrary to Andrews point above, there is a lot more to an order of chicken wings, then just the gluttonous consumption of chicken. It represents peoples lives and livelihoods. We can't just throw all that away because something MIGHT happen, especially when we know that all we can do is delay these infections, not stop them.

It just seems to be a high cost with little long term benefit, until we see a bigger problem arise in our hospitals.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> It just seems to be a high cost with little long term benefit, until we see a bigger problem arise in our hospitals.


While I get the point about livelihoods, everyone's experience is going to be different. To me, there's no reason why we can't have some basic policies and standard practices in place. Mask wearing and hand sanitizers everywhere seem to be the bare minimum, and doesn't impact QoL other than those anti-maskers.

But what is the threshold of problem? When the ICU capacity hits 80%? 90% for sustained periods? It's generally a little late to react at that point as even imposing lockdown measures will take weeks, if not months to show much change in the situation.

Should we lockdown now? No, but having some basic precautions in place like masks and keeping some distance between strangers in public places, like waiting in line seem to be fairly innocuous things to implement.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> While I get the point about livelihoods, everyone's experience is going to be different. To me, there's no reason why we can't have some basic policies and standard practices in place. Mask wearing and hand sanitizers everywhere seem to be the bare minimum, and doesn't impact QoL other than those anti-maskers.


Masks, hand sanitizer. No problem. Of course you can't wear a mask at a bar or restaurant



> But what is the threshold of problem? When the ICU capacity hits 80%? 90% for sustained periods? It's generally a little late to react at that point as even imposing lockdown measures will take weeks, if not months to show much change in the situation.
> 
> Should we lockdown now? No, but having some basic precautions in place like masks and keeping some distance between strangers in public places, like waiting in line seem to be fairly innocuous things to implement.


Let's just say it will be an ICU number a lot higher then it is now. Also, it is socializing in homes and improper work places that send people to the ICU. Not waiting in line in a restaurant for 15 minutes. Those larger room, limited time interactions, mostly give an unvaccinated person the benign infections we can only hope for, in most cases. When you look at the cross section of infections and give any consideration to the different situations they can be obtained, it is not difficult to come to the conclusion that to get really, really sick, one needs to allow the virus to concentrate, which will happen in a more confined, smaller room, with very little ventilation, and one needs to expose themselves to that environment, for a very long time. I suspect multiple hours, overnight stays, 8hr shifts, that type of thing. Yelling in a bar can be a little dangerous, but it does spread a lot of smaller more benign infections to people who are further away from the infected source that is doing all the yelling.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> You want to back up the assertion that there has been an increase in suicide deaths due to the lockdown?
> Here's a counter: DEFINE_ME
> And another: Suicide deaths have declined during the pandemic, but experts warn the toll might be yet to come





https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/pandemic-safety-measures-children-teen-health-impact-1.5953326



According to a March 2021 report from McMaster Children’s Hospital, "*youth admitted for medical support after a suicide attempt has tripled over a four-month period compared to last year*" and "patients are staying in hospital longer due to more serious attempts."

And the 20x more suicides than COVID deaths for kids was taken from suicide deaths for kids in 2019 compared to all deaths of kids during entire pandemic.

It is bad out there. Lockdowns and anxiety introduced by governments and media are killing children at ridiculous pace
Singh saying he wants mandates and lockdowns to protect kids is literally calling for action that will end in over 20x more deaths among children. And that is completely disregarding deterioration of mental health of those that won't go far enough to kill themselves.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Let's address the elephant in the room, since it is not getting the attention it requires.

As I said, the only way this pandemic ends is if enough Canadians get immunized so that the odds of too many of them being rushed to the hospital will almost never overwhelm any of them. Can we agree on that? Is there another way out of this mess?

OK. My suggestion has been, since we know that the rest of the remaining unvaccinated are unlikely to come forward for vaccination very quickly, is to allow them to get infected quickly. Preferably in a setting that offers them the best chance for their survival. That of course is difficult to manage, on its own, but of course we cannot even attempt to manage the settings that those people go to when they infect others. So it creates quite a variable and to get Canada out of this mess, I suspect a minimum of 3,000 to 5,000 more deaths and that number could be 5 times that. This will happen no matter what we do, either by the end of fall/winter or over the next 5 years or more, depending on whether we open up or restrict activities.

There is actually one more solution. It is a better solution and it has significantly fewer deaths. This plan is to vaccinate the unvaccinated. In my opinion, the only way this can be achieved is with a big stick. We tried the carrot (vaccinate and protect yourself). It is now time for the stick. There is only one stick big enough to get enough of these people to come forward for vaccination (I estimate we need 50% of them). Vaccine passports, directed at anything that is not a necessity but makes the lives of most unvaccinated people, miserable. Here I would suggest that an unvaccinated person cannot enter a bar, restaurant, gym, a hair salon, perhaps even a church. Cannot be around any other people in a social setting, who are not part their direct family. Lock em down.

Those are the two choices really, unless you consider living the way we have in the last 18 months, for many more years, as another choice. We really do need vaccine passports. It is the best choice for everyone.


----------



## andrewf

bgc_fan said:


> Except you have to prepare for the possibility, and you're not always going to have all the information. There's a federal pandemic playbook that should be followed with policies and it requires some updating. For example, back in Dec 2019/Jan 2020 there were indications of a new virus coming out of China. Would we have been better served if with shut down the borders completely (assuming we could shut down the US border)? Would that have been an acceptable response at the time? In hindsight, some people argue that we should have, but I bet in the Jan/Feb timeframe everyone would be up in arms if we completely sealed our borders. If sealing the borders gave us the same covid as Australia/NZ, would that have been seen as an over-reaction when compared to what we have?


It was literally unthinkable that we would close the US border back in Jan 2020. And it has never really been truly closed like the Aus/NZ borders. Tens of thousands cross it on a daily basis for essential work.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> None of that addresses the question of whether we should limit economic activity because something MIGHT happen to our hospitals.
> 
> There can be no precise answer to the hospital question, at this time, so we need to take things further to get a better picture. Right now our hospitals are fine, with respect to covid. Again, it is not without cost and pain to limit economic activity. Contrary to Andrews point above, there is a lot more to an order of chicken wings, then just the gluttonous consumption of chicken. It represents peoples lives and livelihoods. We can't just throw all that away because something MIGHT happen, especially when we know that all we can do is delay these infections, not stop them.
> 
> It just seems to be a high cost with little long term benefit, until we see a bigger problem arise in our hospitals.


I would agree with you if we were talking about a hypothetical, and not currently active pandemic. It is likelier than not we will see a significant 4th wave of infections. It is known that we have 20% of the eligible population unvaccinated, in addition to all children under 12. 'Going back to normal' is a recipe for guaranteed exponential growth in cases. Whether that exponential growth is enough to lead to shutdowns is an open question, but it is not a remote possibility. We can pretend it's not going to happen, but it is just going to lead to harder lockdowns later. Crossing our fingers is not a strategy.


----------



## afulldeck

OptsyEagle said:


> There is actually one more solution. It is a better solution and it has significantly fewer deaths. This plan is to vaccinate the unvaccinated. In my opinion, the only way this can be achieved is with a big stick. We tried the carrot (vaccinate and protect yourself). It is now time for the stick. There is only one stick big enough to get enough of these people to come forward for vaccination (I estimate we need 50% of them). Vaccine passports, directed at anything that is not a necessity but makes the lives of most unvaccinated people, miserable. Here I would suggest that an unvaccinated person cannot enter a bar, restaurant, gym, a hair salon, perhaps even a church. Cannot be around any other people in a social setting, who are not part their direct family. Lock em down.


Nope that is the wrong solution. Vaccine passports punish both the vaccinated (by needing to care around proof) as well as the unvaccinated. 

The better solution is simply pass a law that everyone must be vaccinated. Then look at the list of unvaccinated folks hunt them down and give them their mandatory vaccination or send them to jail.


----------



## OptsyEagle

afulldeck said:


> Nope that is the wrong solution. Vaccine passports punish both the vaccinated (by needing to care around proof) as well as the unvaccinated.
> 
> The better solution is simply pass a law that everyone must be vaccinated. Then look at the list of unvaccinated folks hunt them down and give them their mandatory vaccination or send them to jail.


You can't just pass a law and force a person to be injected with a drug. Even I won't go that far. Plus, there are some people who have a legitimate concern. People with allergic reactions to vaccine, for example. Vaccine passports simply takes out of that group the larger majority of them that have what would only amount to nonsensical reasons not to vaccinate. They are who I am focusing on and the passports should flush em out pretty quickly.

I am also not going to respond to the point about punishing the vaccinated by forcing them to show their status. The whole idea is to keep open the businesses, where you obviously want to go, if you are ever asked to show it. I don't think it is too much to ask.

Listen, think about what we have been debating over the last page of posts. We are effectively debating what restrictions on people, or what limits on businesses, or what type of PPE we should all have to deal with, so as to allow the unvaccinated to continue being unvaccinated. We know that if we had 100% vaccination rates we would not be debating any of this.

So let's focus the debate on the real problem. The unvaccinated are the problem and vaccine passports are about the only stick we have to solve it. Let's not waste anymore time. The virus is going to infect these people in the fall, no matter what restrictions we decide on. Whatever number of them will need hospitalization, WILL be going to our hospitals. Restrictions will not stop that because too many of us are already immune and will not abide by them anymore. You see what I mean?

Let's not waste anymore time. We need to demand vaccine passports or allow the virus to spread. There is nothing else, that does anything more then delay, whatever carnage will happen. I wish it was not true, but it is.


----------



## sags

We aren't wasting time. We are biding our time waiting for a cure.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/pandemic-safety-measures-children-teen-health-impact-1.5953326
> 
> 
> 
> According to a March 2021 report from McMaster Children’s Hospital, "*youth admitted for medical support after a suicide attempt has tripled over a four-month period compared to last year*" and "patients are staying in hospital longer due to more serious attempts."
> 
> And the 20x more suicides than COVID deaths for kids was taken from suicide deaths for kids in 2019 compared to all deaths of kids during entire pandemic.
> 
> It is bad out there. Lockdowns and anxiety introduced by governments and media are killing children at ridiculous pace
> Singh saying he wants mandates and lockdowns to protect kids is literally calling for action that will end in over 20x more deaths among children. And that is completely disregarding deterioration of mental health of those that won't go far enough to kill themselves.


So there's a bit of nuance. The rates of suicide attempts aren't necessarily increasing, it's that they are more serious. McMaster Children’s Hospital reports rise in ‘more serious’ suicide attempts So the question would be why the attempts are more serious than before.

As for covid deaths, I wouldn't take 2019 as a benchmark any more as I'd say more kids are more affected by the delta variant than the previous variants. To say that the rate is going to be the same is not valid.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> When you look at the cross section of infections and give any consideration to the different situations they can be obtained, it is not difficult to come to the conclusion that to get really, really sick, one needs to allow the virus to concentrate, which will happen in a more confined, smaller room, with very little ventilation, and one needs to expose themselves to that environment, for a very long time.


I think you're basing that on previous variants. The delta variant has shown to be almost twice as virulent as the original virus. So I don't think those conditions are necessary to transmit, or cause a small outbreak. As it is, we haven't had outbreaks traced to restaurants, but, we're pretty poor on contact tracing so even if there was one, we would never know.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> We aren't wasting time. We are biding our time waiting for a cure.


I assume that is a joke.


----------



## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> It was literally unthinkable that we would close the US border back in Jan 2020. And it has never really been truly closed like the Aus/NZ borders. Tens of thousands cross it on a daily basis for essential work.


I know. The point is that people keep clamouring that we should have ended all flights to China. I think of the original outbreaks, one was traced to a resident returning from China, while the other was Iran. However, the vast majority came from people coming back from the US. It was kind of pointless to just stop flights from one country when covid was already prevalent everywhere.


----------



## andrewf

bgc_fan said:


> I think you're basing that on previous variants. The delta variant has shown to be almost twice as virulent as the original virus. So I don't think those conditions are necessary to transmit, or cause a small outbreak. As it is, we haven't had outbreaks traced to restaurants, but, we're pretty poor on contact tracing so even if there was one, we would never know.


Early variants were shown to be unlikely to spread in well ventilated spaces or outdoors. Delta has been shown to be transmitted outdoors and in transient exposure. So the huge progress in vaccination is offset at least partly by a variant with a much higher R0. The original strain was R0 of ~3, Delta is 6-9, which is a lot worse that double to triple when we have to take measures that to reduce that effective R to close to 1. Anything much more than 1 inevitably will overwhelm us and lead to lockdowns.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> I think you're basing that on previous variants. The delta variant has shown to be almost twice as virulent as the original virus. So I don't think those conditions are necessary to transmit, or cause a small outbreak. As it is, we haven't had outbreaks traced to restaurants, but, we're pretty poor on contact tracing so even if there was one, we would never know.


No doubt. But the adjustment would be something like 4 hrs of delta exposure leading to a dangerous infection instead of 8 hrs. Not 15 minutes. The virus is not that violent.

Anyway, neither one of us knows these things precisely so I will leave this with my original suggestion that there is as much reason to believe that hospitalizations will be reduced due to high vaccination rates and younger average ages for the unvaccinated. Since we don't know which way it will go, it is time to give our businesses a break. They have done everything we have asked of them and I think we are getting a little too complacent in asking them to bear anymore hardship then there needs to be.

It time for the unvaccinated to bear the remaining hardship.


----------



## andrewf

bgc_fan said:


> I know. The point is that people keep clamouring that we should have ended all flights to China. I think of the original outbreaks, one was traced to a resident returning from China, while the other was Iran. However, the vast majority came from people coming back from the US. It was kind of pointless to just stop flights from one country when covid was already prevalent everywhere.


And it seems likely that COVID was circulating in China in Oct 2019, with it already having made its way to the rest of the world before Jan. Closing the border to one country would have been closing the barn door after the horse had already bolted.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> It time for the unvaccinated to bear the remaining hardship.


That is not a choice we can realistically make. Moderate measures continuing for now, or open up and hard lockdown later. Those are our options.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> Early variants were shown to be unlikely to spread in well ventilated spaces or outdoors. Delta has been shown to be transmitted outdoors and in transient exposure. So the huge progress in vaccination is offset at least partly by a variant with a much higher R0. The original strain was R0 of ~3, Delta is 6-9, which is a lot worse that double to triple when we have to take measures that to reduce that effective R to close to 1. Anything much more than 1 inevitably will overwhelm us and lead to lockdowns.


Precisely. I am hoping the delta can spread fast outside. Outside infections will rarely be dangerous. The delta could be the most perfect pandemic ender we could hope for. It seems well suited for the job and whether we agree on how to proceed going forward or not, I am pretty sure the delta is going to go ahead and infect our remaining citizens anyway. It really can't be stopped at this stage.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> That is not a choice we can realistically make. Moderate measures continuing for now, or open up and hard lockdown later. Those are our options.


The best option there would be opening up. Of course the vaccine passport would be a much safer way to go. In either case, opening up or locking down, this virus is going to get the job done (inoculating the unvaccinated). Trust me. It cannot be stopped. There are only two types of people in the world. The vaccinated and unvaccinated. The vaccinated are fed up, feeling safe and socializing like never before. Perfect for getting people together. The unvaccinated are vulnerable and will also be joining in on the get togethers and as you said previously, can spread this delta very easily, indoors or out. What does everyone think is going to happen with all that.

This pandemic will soon be over. Just a matter of time. I suspect 10 months, maybe a year. Perhaps a few thousand more Canadians dead, but a lot less if we can get a large number of unvaccinated to vaccinate quickly. That would take tough vaccine passports IMO. Maybe some other ideas might work, but I doubt as quickly.


----------



## MyCatMittens

sags said:


> We aren't wasting time. We are biding our time waiting for a cure.


Says the retired guy on a pension.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> Perhaps a few thousand more Canadians dead, but a lot less if we can get a large number of unvaccinated to vaccinate quickly. That would take tough vaccine passports IMO. Maybe some other ideas might work, but I doubt as quickly.


20% Canadians getting infected at 0.5% CFR is 40k deaths. We're talking tripling the COVID body count to date. I don't think most Canadians are on board with that idea. And that is definitely enough to cripple the health care system.

A good number of older vaccinated people will get infected, hospitalized and die if there is wanton levels of infection, based on what we see in Israel.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> 20% Canadians getting infected at 0.5% CFR is 40k deaths. We're talking tripling the COVID body count to date. I don't think most Canadians are on board with that idea. And that is definitely enough to cripple the health care system.
> 
> A good number of older vaccinated people will get infected, hospitalized and die if there is wanton levels of infection, based on what we see in Israel.


You are forgetting about all the asymptomatic infections that we never hear about. The covid fatality rate is much, much lower then that because of those asymptomatic infections that we never test for. There are even more of them now because a lot of the mandatory testing has been reduced due to the requirement to be fully vaccinated instead. Our testing is way down. There are probably at least 10 times the infections then what we hear of each day. That is a good thing. Those infections are the good ones.

Anyway, whatever CFR we have we are going to get. All I am saying is there is no sense delaying what is inevitable, especially when it cost some business owner his livelihood or an employee his/her job. The only reason to delay would be to reduce demand on hospitals and right now that is not the case. If it becomes the case, we can react to that then. Hopefully by locking down the culprits responsible, the unvaccinated, but to save my hospitals I will accept even the wrongly directed precautions, at that time.


----------



## afulldeck

OptsyEagle said:


> You can't just pass a law and force a person to be injected with a drug. Even I won't go that far. Plus, there are some people who have a legitimate concern. People with allergic reactions to vaccine, for example. Vaccine passports simply takes out of that group the larger majority of them that have what would only amount to nonsensical reasons not to vaccinate. They are who I am focusing on and the passports should flush em out pretty quickly.
> 
> I am also not going to respond to the point about punishing the vaccinated by forcing them to show their status. The whole idea is to keep open the businesses, where you obviously want to go, if you are ever asked to show it. I don't think it is too much to ask.
> 
> Listen, think about what we have been debating over the last page of posts. We are effectively debating what restrictions on people, or what limits on businesses, or what type of PPE we should all have to deal with, so as to allow the unvaccinated to continue being unvaccinated. We know that if we had 100% vaccination rates we would not be debating any of this.
> 
> So let's focus the debate on the real problem. The unvaccinated are the problem and vaccine passports are about the only stick we have to solve it. Let's not waste anymore time. The virus is going to infect these people in the fall, no matter what restrictions we decide on. Whatever number of them will need hospitalization, WILL be going to our hospitals. Restrictions will not stop that because too many of us are already immune and will not abide by them anymore. You see what I mean?
> 
> Let's not waste anymore time. We need to demand vaccine passports or allow the virus to spread. There is nothing else, that does anything more then delay, whatever carnage will happen. I wish it was not true, but it is.


Vaccine passports in country is a slippery step toward totalitarianism. It punishes the good trying to get to the bad. It's the wrong direction. There needs to be a better solution that only goes after the un-vaccinated. Passports are not the right answer. Find a better one. 

You do realize that the government (ontario) is screwing up vaccinations now with cancer patients. Many cancer patients cannot get re-vaccinated after their cancer treatment. Many cancer treatments kill the immunity of the patient and at the end of treatment they need to get ALL their vaccines again. At least in Ontario, they are denying these patients to be vaccinated again.


----------



## andrewf

CFR tends to climb when you don't have the medical resources to care for the patients.

'If it becomes the case'

The 4th wave has already started. Stay turned.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> CFR tends to climb when you don't have the medical resources to care for the patients.
> 
> 'If it becomes the case'
> 
> The 4th wave has already started. Stay turned.


In all of that we agree.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> No doubt. But the adjustment would be something like 4 hrs of delta exposure leading to a dangerous infection instead of 8 hrs. Not 15 minutes. The virus is not that violent.
> 
> Anyway, neither one of us knows these things precisely so I will leave this with my original suggestion that there is as much reason to believe that hospitalizations will be reduced due to high vaccination rates and younger average ages for the unvaccinated. Since we don't know which way it will go, it is time to give our businesses a break. They have done everything we have asked of them and I think we are getting a little too complacent in asking them to bear anymore hardship then there needs to be.
> 
> It time for the unvaccinated to bear the remaining hardship.


Based on how they traced in Australia, brief exposure between people was enough to transmit COVID. They weren't people enclosed in confined spaces, but people passing by in a shopping mall. Infection Through “Fleeting Contact” With The Delta Variant Leads To Lockdowns Across Australia

Of course, Australia has minimal vaccination rates and little exposure to the previous variants so they have little immunity. However, it is still indicative of how virulent the strain is.

As for where we go... if we are lucky due to high vaccination rates, we will be more like Israel rather than Florida.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Based on how they traced in Australia, brief exposure between people was enough to transmit COVID. They weren't people enclosed in confined spaces, but people passing by in a shopping mall. Infection Through “Fleeting Contact” With The Delta Variant Leads To Lockdowns Across Australia
> 
> Of course, Australia has minimal vaccination rates and little exposure to the previous variants so they have little immunity. However, it is still indicative of how virulent the strain is.
> 
> As for where we go... if we are lucky due to high vaccination rates, we will be more like Israel rather than Florida.


I am not talking about transmitting the virus. We were talking about what it takes to send the average person to the hospital. That does not happen via a brief exposure to any of the variants. Of course brief exposure still allows covid to transmit in smaller doses. That is what I am hoping because a person who will inevitably get infected some day, will either get a benign infection or a severe one. I am hoping they get the benign or safer one and those only happen with brief exposures, preferably outside.


----------



## OptsyEagle

afulldeck said:


> Vaccine passports in country is a slippery step toward totalitarianism. It punishes the good trying to get to the bad. It's the wrong direction. There needs to be a better solution that only goes after the un-vaccinated. Passports are not the right answer. Find a better one.
> 
> You do realize that the government (ontario) is screwing up vaccinations now with cancer patients. Many cancer patients cannot get re-vaccinated after their cancer treatment. Many cancer treatments kill the immunity of the patient and at the end of treatment they need to get ALL their vaccines again. At least in Ontario, they are denying these patients to be vaccinated again.


You think vaccine passports puts us in a totalitarian state but making a law to force someone to vaccinate is somehow better?

Look. All I do is consider the variables involved in a problem. I consider all the aspects of this pandemic. Death rates, hospital resources, vaccination rates, business and economic factors and I simply put together the most logical way forward, that addresses everyone of those as best as they can and with the consideration each one deserves.

It may sound to some that I am a raving maniac or an uncaring prick, but you only need to go back through these forum pages to know that is certainly not the case. I am absolutely certain that *the vast majority of people, on this planet, will either get exposed to covid through vaccination or infection.* That cannot be altered.

I also understand human behavior fairly well. I know how the majority of the vaccinated are going to behave, going forward. I have a pretty good idea how the unvaccinated are going to act, as well, and that leads me to believe that this next wave is coming very soon and it will be pretty ugly. I can't say precisely how ugly but I can say that it can only be reduced by the unvaccinated getting vaccinated very, very quickly.

Then I ponder that vaccination problem and all I can come up with is either forcing them to vaccinate, as you have suggested, or hitting them with a stick, which I call severely restrictive vaccine passports. I am not going to spend any more time on the warm and fuzzy issues debating either of those, but I am simply going to state that *if either is not done, then infection it will be*. I did not create the world we now live in, the virus did. Whatever covid fatality rate comes about, will come about. Whatever hospitalizations come about, will come about. Precautions and business limitations and mask wearing will not stop it anymore. They can only offer a little delay and in the world we are in right now, probably not much of even that.


----------



## sags

A "totalitarian" state may be a little strongly worded. Maybe a "nanny" state for a temporary period of time would be useful.........just until the virus passes by.

People like the anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists may need someone to make decisions for them. Kind of like a power of attorney type of arrangement.

Then later......when the coast is clear, we will give them back their car keys.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> I am *hoping* they get the benign or safer one and those only happen with brief exposures, preferably outside.


Just an aside, hope is usually not the best course of action. We'll see. If there is going to be a serious breakout of new cases and hospitalizations, it'll likely happen in September given the timeline of opening up the provinces.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> You can't just pass a law and force a person to be injected with a drug. Even I won't go that far. Plus, there are some people who have a legitimate concern. People with allergic reactions to vaccine, for example. Vaccine passports simply takes out of that group the larger majority of them that have what would only amount to nonsensical reasons not to vaccinate. They are who I am focusing on and the passports should flush em out pretty quickly.
> 
> I am also not going to respond to the point about punishing the vaccinated by forcing them to show their status. The whole idea is to keep open the businesses, where you obviously want to go, if you are ever asked to show it. I don't think it is too much to ask.
> 
> Listen, think about what we have been debating over the last page of posts. We are effectively debating what restrictions on people, or what limits on businesses, or what type of PPE we should all have to deal with, so as to allow the unvaccinated to continue being unvaccinated. We know that if we had 100% vaccination rates we would not be debating any of this.
> 
> So let's focus the debate on the real problem. The unvaccinated are the problem and vaccine passports are about the only stick we have to solve it. Let's not waste anymore time. The virus is going to infect these people in the fall, no matter what restrictions we decide on. Whatever number of them will need hospitalization, WILL be going to our hospitals. Restrictions will not stop that because too many of us are already immune and will not abide by them anymore. You see what I mean?
> 
> Let's not waste anymore time. We need to demand vaccine passports or allow the virus to spread. There is nothing else, that does anything more then delay, whatever carnage will happen. I wish it was not true, but it is.


Businesses are fully open now with no limits without mandates, throwing people in jails, and segregation.
You are trying to fix a problem that doesn't exist. Just leave businesses alone and let them do what they are currently doing - operate


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> So there's a bit of nuance. The rates of suicide attempts aren't necessarily increasing, it's that they are more serious. McMaster Children’s Hospital reports rise in ‘more serious’ suicide attempts So the question would be why the attempts are more serious than before.
> 
> As for covid deaths, I wouldn't take 2019 as a benchmark any more as I'd say more kids are more affected by the delta variant than the previous variants. To say that the rate is going to be the same is not valid.











More than 5,800 youth suicides across Canada signals mental health ‘crisis’


Children as young as 8 have taken their own lives. While governments have acknowledged the crisis — and responded with millions in funding and programs — there have been few signs the crisis is abating.




www.thestar.com




Fine, take a yearly average over 13 years. Still order of magnitude higher than COVID deaths during 18 months of pandemic.
Numbers are clear here.

You literally took half of the same quote and completely ignored another part:

"*Youth admitted for medical support after a suicide attempt has tripled over a four month period*, compared to last year. *Patients are staying in hospital longer due to more serious attempts.*
McMaster Children's Hospital says a large number of these youth have reported COVID-related issues such as lack of social interaction, increased conflict at home, and the inability to rely on friends as main contributors."

That means 200% rise in hospitalizations due to suicide attempt.
So you are claiming that kids were always trying to commit suicide, yet they simply are 200% more effective at it during COVID? 😅 😅
Even that is completely irrelevant.
*Number of admissions is up 200% AND those admissions are in worse condition*


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> More than 5,800 youth suicides across Canada signals mental health ‘crisis’
> 
> 
> Children as young as 8 have taken their own lives. While governments have acknowledged the crisis — and responded with millions in funding and programs — there have been few signs the crisis is abating.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thestar.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Fine, take a yearly average over 13 years. Still order of magnitude higher than COVID deaths during 18 months of pandemic.
> Numbers are clear here.
> 
> You literally took half of the same quote and completely ignored another part:
> 
> "*Youth admitted for medical support after a suicide attempt has tripled over a four month period*, compared to last year. *Patients are staying in hospital longer due to more serious attempts.*
> McMaster Children's Hospital says a large number of these youth have reported COVID-related issues such as lack of social interaction, increased conflict at home, and the inability to rely on friends as main contributors."
> 
> That means 200% rise in hospitalizations due to suicide attempt.
> So you are claiming that kids were always trying to commit suicide, yet they simply are 200% more effective at it during COVID? 😅 😅
> Even that is completely irrelevant.
> *Number of admissions is up 200% AND those admissions are in worse condition*


I didn't ignore that I said that they were more serious attempts, and it was the doctor from the same hospital that stated that number of admissions weren't that out of line. But the other question is what was the number of admissions in 2018? Is 2020 admissions comparable? Using 2019 can be misleading when most people were hesitant to go to the hospital due to covid during the early months. So using percentages like that instead of actual numbers can be misleading. The other consideration is that due to covid priorities, many of the health care resources that they could have used during 2020 were not available.

More children die of suicide annually than covid. Kind of irrelevant since your point is that covid is causing an increase over the baseline.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> I didn't ignore that I said that they were more serious attempts, and it was the doctor from the same hospital that stated that number of admissions weren't that out of line. But the other question is what was the number of admissions in 2018? Is 2020 admissions comparable? Using 2019 can be misleading when most people were hesitant to go to the hospital due to covid during the early months. So using percentages like that instead of actual numbers can be misleading. The other consideration is that due to covid priorities, many of the health care resources that they could have used during 2020 were not available.
> 
> More children die of suicide annually than covid. Kind of irrelevant since your point is that covid is causing an increase over the baseline.


Yeas, it is undeniably increasing mental health issues.
It is undeniably increasing hospitalizations due to suicide attempts.
Study is from march 2021. They specify the period they look at: October 2019 - January 2020 - before any mental health support was taken, before hesitation of going to hospital.
Don't get your argument about 2019. COVID wasn't a thing back then, but I assume that's a typo and you meant 2020 - still irrelevant since they looked at October 2019 - January 2020 - Pre-COVID for a comparison

Why are you trying so hard to cover your eyes when faced with massive issue with mental health that governments and media induced on the kids, and how the damage is orders of magnitude higher than deaths from COVID during the ENTIRE pandemic (and not just a single year).


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> A good number of older vaccinated people will get infected, hospitalized and die if there is wanton levels of infection, based on what we see in Israel.


Yes. This is why people need to stay vigilant about protecting themselves by avoiding crowds, avoiding large gatherings, wearing masks, etc.

There's a big difference between the highly cautious, low risk lifestyle of the last year (or so) and an "unrestrained" lifestyle. If people really turn to being unrestrained, then the total number of infections will skyrocket, and many people will die.

One of my friends is an ER surgeon in western Canada. In hindsight, he was probably telling us about covid (before we knew what it was) but back in January 2020 he said that his hospital is overflowing with flu, the ICUs are totally full, and people are dying all over the place. He told us privately that it was a disaster and a ridiculous number of people are dying.

Without knowing it -- what he was describing was COVID in an *unrestrained* atmosphere, where everyone was spreading it like crazy. And now we have delta, which is far more infectious than the original strain.

We need to keep a lid on this during this winter. Vaccination is not a panacea. It's just another layer of protection in a multi-layered approach.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Just an aside, hope is usually not the best course of action. We'll see. If there is going to be a serious breakout of new cases and hospitalizations, it'll likely happen in September given the timeline of opening up the provinces.


The hope part was not the plan it was more advice to anyone planning social events. The outside infections are so much safer then the indoor ones. That was the point.

The big outbreak of cases will happen as the cold weather hits. The opening of provinces is not as relevant anymore. Lockdowns were not protecting us before. Fear of the virus was protecting us. People used the lockdown/restrictions as their reason to be precautious because it is against human nature to admit fear, but it was definitely fear. Those people are not afraid anymore because they are vaccinated.

So restrictions will not work nearly as well anymore. The 4th wave has started. It will gather a lot of scarier momentum around October and we will see how well our hospitals do then, but as I said, there is not much we can do about it and for the vaccinated, it will have little effect on them personally. The few vaccinated people that will be seriously effected have such serious health problems right now already, Covid will be just another slap in the face. I do feel sorry for those individuals but as I have said, there is not much that can be done for them. The virus does not seem to care and we know that most people don't care much about strangers. So there we are.


----------



## afulldeck

OptsyEagle said:


> You think vaccine passports puts us in a totalitarian state but making a law to force someone to vaccinate is somehow better?
> 
> Look. All I do is consider the variables involved in a problem. I consider all the aspects of this pandemic. Death rates, hospital resources, vaccination rates, business and economic factors and I simply put together the most logical way forward, that addresses everyone of those as best as they can and to with the consideration each one deserves.
> 
> It may sound to some that I am a raving maniac or an uncaring prick, but you only need to go back through these forum pages to know that is certainly not the case. I am absolutely certain that *the vast majority of people, on this planet, will either get exposed to covid through vaccination or infection.* That cannot be altered.
> 
> I also understand human behavior fairly well. I know how the majority of the vaccinated are going to behave, going forward. I have a pretty good idea how the unvaccinated are going to act, as well, and that leads me to believe that this next wave is coming very soon and it will be pretty ugly. I can't say precisely how ugly but I can say that it can only be reduced by the unvaccinated getting vaccinated very, very quickly.
> 
> Then I ponder that vaccination problem and all I can come up with is either forcing them to vaccinate, as you have suggested, or hitting them with a stick, which I call severely restrictive vaccine passports. I am not going to spend any more time on the warm and fuzzy issues debating either of those, but I am simply going to state that *if either is not done, then infection it will be*. I did not create the world we now live in, the virus did. Whatever covid fatality rate comes about, will come about. Whatever hospitalizations come about, will come about. Precautions and business limitations and mask wearing will not stop it anymore. They can only offer a little delay and in the world we are in right now, probably not much of even that.


Actually, I don't think of you as uncaring or a maniac I just don't like your solution vaccine passports. It violates logic of dealing with the problem. Its like walking into a room with seven kids and with two fighting, so you make all seven stand in the corner. Wrong solution. 

Yes, having a law to force someone (who can medically receive the vaccine) is better than punishing everyone. It's the least harm solution while protecting the 'rights and life' of the herd must be and targetting the smaller group of the un-vaccinated its for their own good. 

We seem to have forgotten that there is another pandemic that is hasn't been dealt with in the world; AIDS. It's still spreading its' wrath through out the world. Yes we have some drugs to deal with the symptoms but its rate of spread is still strong. So through the looking glass---->We are not asking everyone for their wellness passport to show they don't have AIDS (which arguably has a much more deadlier consequence than covid) so why are we suggesting it here with people who did the right thing?


----------



## Money172375

afulldeck said:


> Actually, I don't think of you as uncaring or a maniac I just don't like your solution vaccine passports. It violates logic of dealing with the problem. Its like walking into a room with seven kids and with two fighting, so you make all seven stand in the corner. Wrong solution.
> 
> Yes, having a law to force someone (who can medically receive the vaccine) is better than punishing everyone. It's the least harm solution while protecting the 'rights and life' of the herd must be and targetting the smaller group of the un-vaccinated its for their own good.
> 
> We seem to have forgotten that there is another pandemic that is hasn't been dealt with in the world; AIDS. It's still spreading its' wrath through out the world. Yes we have some drugs to deal with the symptoms but its rate of spread is still strong. So through the looking glass---->We are not asking everyone for their wellness passport to show they don't have AIDS (which arguably has a much more deadlier consequence than covid) so why are we suggesting it here with people who did the right thing?


You don’t get HIV talking to to an infected person, or even kissing an infected person. Probably safer to be in an enclosed room with 100 HIV carriers, than it is being in an enclosed room with one COVID carrier.


----------



## andrewf

afulldeck said:


> We seem to have forgotten that there is another pandemic that is hasn't been dealt with in the world; AIDS. It's still spreading its' wrath through out the world. Yes we have some drugs to deal with the symptoms but its rate of spread is still strong. So through the looking glass---->We are not asking everyone for their wellness passport to show they don't have AIDS (which arguably has a much more deadlier consequence than covid) so why are we suggesting it here with people who did the right thing?


Not sure you are well versed with modern HIV therapies. There are treatments that effectively keep AIDS in remission and make the virus non-detectable in carriers (so they can't transmit). Also, drugs that reduce the risk of contracting. HIV is also far less transmissible (it's not airborne).


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> You don’t get HIV talking to to an infected person, or even kissing an infected person. Probably safer to be in an enclosed room with 100 HIV carriers, than it is being in an enclosed room with one COVID carrier.


I think many people still don't really understand the severity of an *airborne* virus.

For me, the worst bit of news in 2020 were the early indications that covid-19 was truly airborne.


----------



## afulldeck

Money172375 said:


> You don’t get HIV talking to to an infected person, or even kissing an infected person. Probably safer to be in an enclosed room with 100 HIV carriers, than it is being in an enclosed room with one COVID carrier.


That's not the point. The point is the morality of the situation --- AIDS was an example.


----------



## afulldeck

andrewf said:


> Not sure you are well versed with modern HIV therapies. There are treatments that effectively keep AIDS in remission and make the virus non-detectable in carriers (so they can't transmit). Also, drugs that reduce the risk of contracting. HIV is also far less transmissible (it's not airborne).


Very knowledgeable. That said, your side stepping the issue. The point was not its transmissible rate or method. It was the punishment of the larger crowd based on the bad behaviour of a few. Logic says you need to deal with the few, the many have already proved their humanity and commonsense.


----------



## andrewf

If we need to make being unvaccinated inconvenient as a nudge to get most vaccinated, maybe it is a price worth paying. It may also help to keep the economy more open than it would otherwise be during the impending future lockdowns.


----------



## afulldeck

andrewf said:


> If we need to make being unvaccinated inconvenient as a nudge to get most vaccinated, maybe it is a price worth paying. It may also help to keep the economy more open than it would otherwise be during the impending future lockdowns.


The only price worth paying is making the vaccine *mandatory by law*. Anything else does not work and only inconveniences the good guys and makes them think the inconveniences are working. They don't.

Edit: How are you going to police vaccine passport? Are you going to:

a) allow all business to query the Ontario (or any province) vaccine database? How are the business going to do that? Seems like a big overhead?
b) force business to look at the paper work already provide? Easy to produce fake versions.
c) post on some general web service all the people who haven't gotten vaccinate yet, so the public can provide pressure?

VACCINE PASSPORTS for in country services are morally, ethically wrong and lead to totalitarian control. They should not be supported in any shape or form.


----------



## damian13ster

afulldeck said:


> The only price worth paying is making the vaccine *mandatory*. Anything else does work and only inconveniences the good guys and makes them think the inconveniences are working. They don't.


All 3 doses, or 4?
People who got vaccines abroad not approved by health Canada need their 5,6, and 7th jabs before they are allowed to go shopping?
Just don't lockdown in the future. Problem solved. Unless you want to kill kids at 2x rate. Then go for it - advocate for restrictions.


----------



## gibor365

damian13ster said:


> All 3 doses, or 4?
> People who got vaccines abroad not approved by health Canada need their 5,6, and 7th jabs before they are allowed to go shopping?


Interesting question , Do Canadians or new immigrants who was fully vaccinated with Sputnik V or Chinese vaccine , need to be fully re-vacinated with Pfizer or moderna?!


----------



## afulldeck

gibor365 said:


> Interesting question , Do Canadians or new immigrants who was fully vaccinated with Sputnik V or Chinese vaccine , need to be fully re-vacinated with Pfizer or moderna?!


The US has already said they will not take AZ or AZ Combo. Those with that mix will need to get another jab to make the list. Its a complete mess.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> Yeas, it is undeniably increasing mental health issues.
> It is undeniably increasing hospitalizations due to suicide attempts.
> Study is from march 2021. They specify the period they look at: October 2019 - January 2020 - before any mental health support was taken, before hesitation of going to hospital.
> Don't get your argument about 2019. COVID wasn't a thing back then, but I assume that's a typo and you meant 2020 - still irrelevant since they looked at October 2019 - January 2020 - Pre-COVID for a comparison
> 
> Why are you trying so hard to cover your eyes when faced with massive issue with mental health that governments and media induced on the kids, and how the damage is orders of magnitude higher than deaths from COVID during the ENTIRE pandemic (and not just a single year).


Unfortunately, Canada has always had a high suicide rate for youths, but most don't really care because the demographics were primarily aboriginal. So now that it's hitting closer to home, it's suddenly a big issue? Assuming that it's 3 times "normal" rate for non-aboriginal youth, that's actually the "normal" rate for aboriginal youth.


----------



## sags

afulldeck said:


> The only price worth paying is making the vaccine *mandatory by law*. Anything else does not work and only inconveniences the good guys and makes them think the inconveniences are working. They don't.
> 
> Edit: How are you going to police vaccine passport? Are you going to:
> 
> a) allow all business to query the Ontario (or any province) vaccine database? How are the business going to do that? Seems like a big overhead?
> b) force business to look at the paper work already provide? Easy to produce fake versions.
> c) post on some general web service all the people who haven't gotten vaccinate yet, so the public can provide pressure?
> 
> VACCINE PASSPORTS for in country services are morally, ethically wrong and lead to totalitarian control. They should not be supported in any shape or form.


Everyone will be implanted with a secure code that doubles as a WIFI hotspot.


----------



## damian13ster

"Unfortunately, Canada has always had a high suicide rate for youths, but most don't really care because the demographics were primarily aboriginal. So now that it's hitting closer to home, it's suddenly a big issue? Assuming that it's 3 times "normal" rate for non-aboriginal youth, that's actually the "normal" rate for aboriginal youth. "

So you are cheering for more non-aboriginal kids to start killing themselves?
Or saying that we shouldn't react to more of them killing themselves?
For equality?


----------



## sags

The statistics show no major increase in suicides or mental illness by youth during the pandemic.

In some locations the rate went up and in other places it went down.

Youth suicide is very rare. The indigenous community is an outlier due to many reasons, not the least of which are alienation and isolation as an indigenous person living in the middle of nowhere. That kind of lifestyle is very difficult for teenagers growing up in today's world. Their traditional ways of life are disappearing due to climate change and other economic factors. It is difficult enough for parents and teens even without those added stresses.

This topic is thoroughly riddled with FUD.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> "Unfortunately, Canada has always had a high suicide rate for youths, but most don't really care because the demographics were primarily aboriginal. So now that it's hitting closer to home, it's suddenly a big issue? Assuming that it's 3 times "normal" rate for non-aboriginal youth, that's actually the "normal" rate for aboriginal youth. "
> 
> So you are cheering for more non-aboriginal kids to start killing themselves?
> Or saying that we shouldn't react to more of them killing themselves?
> For equality?


No, I'm saying that we've ignored the situation for decades, but now that circumstances have elevated rates for non-aboriginal youth, all we do is concentrate on covid and not take care of anyone else. Basically, once the covid situation stabilizes, non-aboriginal youth rates decrease, but aboriginal youth will rates remain the same and no one is going to care anymore. Suddenly youth suicides aren't going to matter.


----------



## Money172375

afulldeck said:


> The US has already said they will not take AZ or AZ Combo. Those with that mix will need to get another jab to make the list. Its a complete mess.


We’re going to be all getting a 3rd shoot soon enough. So the aZ mixing will be all but forgotten.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> The statistics show no major increase in suicides or mental illness by youth during the pandemic.
> 
> In some locations the rate went up and in other places it went down.
> 
> Youth suicide is very rare. The indigenous community is an outlier due to many reasons, not the least of which are alienation and isolation as an indigenous person living in the middle of nowhere. That kind of lifestyle is very difficult for teenagers growing up in today's world. Their traditional ways of life are disappearing due to climate change and other economic factors. It is difficult enough for parents and teens even without those added stresses.
> 
> This topic is thoroughly riddled with FUD.


Youth suicide is 20 times more frequent than youth COVID deaths.
That means for every 1 kid dying from COVID there is 20 killing themselves.
And specialists are unanimous - COVID restrictions have been detrimental to mental health


----------



## sags

That claim has already been debunked.


----------



## cainvest

Numbers for this week ....
Cases, hospitalizations and deaths

No Vax 2591 119 8
Part Vax 972 16 3
Full Vax 555 23 7

Last week
No Vax 2552 205 40
Part Vax 741 13 4
Full Vax 298 19 3


----------



## bgc_fan

Looks like Hydroxychloroquine part 2: invermectin, but at least no one died.








Poison control calls spike as people take livestock dewormer to treat COVID-19


The Mississippi Poison Control Center sent out a health alert Friday warning health leaders of potential toxicity related to a drug used to deworm livestock that some are using to treat and prevent COVID-19.




www.wlox.com





Amazing, people won't get the vaccine because they don't trust it, but think nothing of taking drugs that were specifically formulated for horse physiology. I wonder if they've been watching too much Seinfeld and thought that Kramer was onto something about doctors being quacks and vets know better.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Looks like Hydroxychloroquine part 2: invermectin, but at least no one died.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poison control calls spike as people take livestock dewormer to treat COVID-19
> 
> 
> The Mississippi Poison Control Center sent out a health alert Friday warning health leaders of potential toxicity related to a drug used to deworm livestock that some are using to treat and prevent COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wlox.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Amazing, people won't get the vaccine because they don't trust it, but think nothing of taking drugs that were specifically formulated for horse physiology. I wonder if they've been watching too much Seinfeld and thought that Kramer was onto something about doctors being quacks and vets know better.


?
Where do you get that they were specifically formulated for horse physiology.





__





WHO advises that ivermectin only be used to treat COVID-19 within clinical trials







 www.who.int




Studies show that there may be a positive impact.








Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19... : American Journal of Therapeutics


mortality, in secondary outcomes, and in chemoprophylaxis, among people with, or at high risk of, COVID-19 infection. Data sources: We searched bibliographic databases up to April 25, 2021. Two review authors sifted for studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Meta-analyses were...




journals.lww.com






So yeah, it's another "not quite proven possible treatment".
That being said, you're not a horse, you might want to take a lower dose.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Where do you get that they were specifically formulated for horse physiology.


Specifically for horse? No, I should have just said that it was for livestock, and generally that's cattle, horses, pigs, etc.


----------



## sags

Maybe people should call on old Hattie........










_Early one morn 'tween dark and dawn when shadows filled the sky
There came an unseen caller on a town where hope run dry
In the square there was found a big black round 
Vat full of gurgling brew
Whispering sounds as the folk gathered round
"It came from the Black Bayou"

There ain't much pride when you're trapped inside
A slowly sinkin' ship
Scooped up the liquid deep and green
And the whole town took a sip

Fever went away and the very next day the skies again were blue
Let's thank old Hattie for savin' our town
We'll fetch her from the Black Bayou_


----------



## sags

The situation in the US is declining rapidly. Children are filling up the ICU units and many hospitals are already over capacity.









Louisiana sees 'astronomical' number of new Covid-19 cases, governor says | CNN


With the continued spread of the more infectious Delta variant, health and elected officials warned that hospitals across the country are reaching critical levels of Covid-19 patients, especially in areas with lower vaccination rates.




www.cnn.com


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Specifically for horse? No, I should have just said that it was for livestock, and generally that's cattle, horses, pigs, etc.


It's used for livestock, and it's used in people too, like many drugs.


----------



## Spudd

When I looked into Ivermectin before, I was able to find some evidence for it being useful, although it was far from clear-cut. However, these idiots are buying it at the local feed store and treating themselves, which is bound to end in heartache.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> It's used for livestock, and it's used in people too, like many drugs.


Except the article is specifically referring to those who are taking the livestock formulation.

At least 70% of the recent calls have been related to ingestion of livestock or animal formulations of ivermectin purchased at livestock supply centers.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Except the article is specifically referring to those who are taking the livestock formulation.
> 
> At least 70% of the recent calls have been related to ingestion of livestock or animal formulations of ivermectin purchased at livestock supply centers.


Honestly for many medications the "veterinary" version is the same stuff, just cheaper and easier to get.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Honestly for many medications the "veterinary" version is the same stuff, just cheaper and easier to get.


Aside from different quality standards and dosage, sure.


----------



## zinfit

Dr Scott Gottlieb and the Govenor of Maryland were guests on a Sunday morning news show. Gottlieb says the Delta cases are declining in all age groups with the exception of people under 18. He figures the Delta has spread widely among children and people under 18. He doesn't think it is anymore severe for this group compared to previous covid variants except it has been far more infectious . He figure may-be 25 million school age children have been in contact with Delta. The Govenor said 100% of the deaths and ICU cases in hisState are with the unvaccinated.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> Dr Scott Gottlieb and the Govenor of Maryland were guests on a Sunday morning news show. Gottlieb says the Delta cases are declining in all age groups with the exception of people under 18. He figures the Delta has spread widely among children and people under 18. He doesn't think it is anymore severe for this group compared to previous covid variants except it has been far more infectious . He figure may-be 25 million school age children have been in contact with Delta. The Govenor said 100% of the deaths and ICU cases in hisState are with the unvaccinated.


Brilliant news. Delta has spread in India in less than 2 months and since then they didn't have another wave.
Oldest population is vaccinated, younger one will get natural immunity in a month or two, and we are good to go.
Quick reminder, a total of 15 people under 20 died in Canada in 18 months of the pandemic, in which one of the causes was listed by COVID.
In Canada, you are significantly more likely to get murdered in the street than die from COVID as an under 20.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> Dr Scott Gottlieb and the Govenor of Maryland were guests on a Sunday morning news show. Gottlieb says the Delta cases are declining in all age groups with the exception of people under 18. He figures the Delta has spread widely among children and people under 18. He doesn't think it is anymore severe for this group compared to previous covid variants except it has been far more infectious . He figure may-be 25 million school age children have been in contact with Delta. The Govenor said 100% of the deaths and ICU cases in hisState are with the unvaccinated.


 ... un-vaccinated who? Under 18 or over that or both?


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... un-vaccinated who? Under 18 or over that or both?


That's very easy question to answer.
0.057% of COVID deaths have been among U18 in United States
Interestingly, in Canada, with much higher vaccination rates the number is:
0.056%

As a person under 18, you have higher chance of getting murdered walking on the street than dying of COVID, vaccinated or not.
Maybe we need to mandate bulletproof vests? Noone allowed to enter public space without wearing one at all times.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> That's very easy question to answer.
> 0.057% of COVID deaths have been among U18 in United States
> Interestingly, in Canada, with much higher vaccination rates the number is:
> 0.056%
> 
> As a person under 18, you have higher chance of getting murdered walking on the street than dying of COVID, vaccinated or not.
> Maybe we need to mandate bulletproof vests? Noone allowed to enter public space without wearing one at all times.


 ... don't forget to include the suicide stats for kids there. 

The question wasn't asking about your irrelevant stats of ".057%/.056%" of deaths but who (age group) were responsible for 100% of the deaths and ICUs in that state.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... don't forget to include the suicide stats for kids there.
> 
> The question wasn't asking about your irrelevant stats of ".057%/.056%" of deaths but who (age group) were responsible for 100% of the deaths and ICUs in that state.


No need. They are over 20 times higher. Well known knowledge for anyone who cares about facts.
Your question makes no sense. There wasn't a single age group responsible for 100% of deaths.
You asked about U18 so I provided 'responsibility' of that group for deaths.
Here you have it for all age groups:









Data for Maryland:
U19 responsible for:
0.1% of deaths
Can't see a breakdown of ICU numbers by age.


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... un-vaccinated who? Under 18 or over that or both?


The Governor was just speaking overall numbers with no breakdown. Gottlieb is the view that the risk of severe covid with under 18 people is very rare. He figures schools should be open and testing should be the priority not quarantines.


----------



## sags

Yet......there are reports of rising numbers of severe infections and ICU cases among children in some locations.

The data appears to be strangely more dependent on the location than an overall capture of the infection.

Some places kids in ICUs are way up..........other places not at all.

I listened to one expert who said.......we really don't understand much about this virus because there is no long term data available.

I think he is likely summing it up honestly and accurately.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> No need. They are over 20 times higher. Well known knowledge for anyone who cares about facts.
> Your question makes no sense. There wasn't a single age group responsible for 100% of deaths.
> You asked about U18 so I provided 'responsibility' of that group for deaths.
> Here you have it for all age groups:
> View attachment 22043
> 
> 
> Data for Maryland:
> U19 responsible for:
> 0.1% of deaths
> Can't see a breakdown of ICU numbers by age.


 ... of course my question doesn't make sense to someone who doesn't have common sense and have to rely on "facts" ... "published" facts when the "facts (as in real life)" are facing them (parents) right in the ICUs.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> The Governor was just speaking overall numbers with no breakdown. Gottlieb is the view that the risk of severe covid with under 18 people is very rare. *He figures schools should be open and testing should be the priority not quarantines.*


 ... that would be ideal in "state of Maryland", one small state (population: approx 7M in 2020) in the USA ... bad idea for the "province of Ontario" (aka in Canada) with back to school. Not sure how it's for the rest of the country of "Canada":

Ontario has scaled back COVID testing. With school just around the corner, can we keep up with expected surge in demand?


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario COVID-19 Science Table member resigns, alleging modelling data 'projects a grim fall'

Where's Doug?


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Yet......there are reports of rising numbers of severe infections and ICU cases among children in some locations.
> 
> The data appears to be strangely more dependent on the location than an overall capture of the infection.
> 
> Some places kids in ICUs are way up..........other places not at all.
> 
> I listened to one expert who said.......we really don't understand much about this virus because there is no long term data available.
> 
> I think he is likely summing it up honestly and accurately.


it is a matter of statistical analysis. There are about 50 million school age children in the USA. When you compare the risk of severe cases with that age group with people over 70 or 80 it is a much, much smaller risk. Out of group that large will some children die or get into ICU units? the answer is yes just like a rare number of children end up with cancer and die.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Yet......there are reports of rising numbers of severe infections and ICU cases among children in some locations.
> 
> The data appears to be strangely more dependent on the location than an overall capture of the infection.
> 
> Some places kids in ICUs are way up..........other places not at all.
> 
> I listened to one expert who said.......we really don't understand much about this virus because there is no long term data available.
> 
> I think he is likely summing it up honestly and accurately.


Rising means baseline is low. Going from 2 to 6 is 200% increase and a nice headline.
Also, in infectious disease wards are set up in one location, so all children are being put in one place (common sense).
So if you set up one place for entire metro area, and set it for 10 beds - then once 6 is full then you get a nice headline of (majority of COVID spaces taken up!). 
This is why you need to look at actual statistics and facts. Not anecdotes and headlines


----------



## sags

Or listen to the pediatric doctors and nurses.


----------



## sags

zinfit said:


> it is a matter of statistical analysis. There are about 50 million school age children in the USA. When you compare the risk of severe cases with that age group with people over 70 or 80 it is a much, much smaller risk. Out of group that large will some children die or get into ICU units? the answer is yes just like a rare number of children end up with cancer and die.


Covid deaths add to the number of children dying........not replace the other causes.


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> Ontario COVID-19 Science Table member resigns, alleging modelling data 'projects a grim fall'
> 
> Where's Doug?


At the cottage, trying to figure out why throwing worms over the side of the boat isn't catching fish.


----------



## Beaver101

^ He's probably having an emergency meeting with his members. Well, there're 4 more "business" days this week for him to show his face to the public re this news.


----------



## damian13ster

What news?
There were hundred different models since the beginning of the pandemic.
Not a single one of them came remotely close to actuality.
Why is 101st being ignored after first 100 turned out to be useless news-worthy?

edit so that full original post is still seen:
It isn't news that a model predicts end of the world. 100 previous ones did that too and they were completely wrong every single time. This isn't news.
It is a nice headline though!
I am not surprised premier doesn't care about 101st model with 100 of them being completely useless


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> What news?
> There were hundred different models since the beginning of the pandemic.
> Not a single one of them came remotely close to actuality.
> Why is 101st being ignored after first 100 turned out to be useless news-worthy?


 ... want to re-examine your post again by reading the link first. That's the news. Or are you having comprehension difficulty all of a sudden?


----------



## sags

Iraan, Texas.........a sleeply little town with 1200 residents.

It is likely a deeply Republican rural town who now have a big problem.

Over 50% of the residents have covid. The schools are closed because teachers and kids are sick. They have a small rural hospital that is full and has no ICU unit.

They are trying to move the severely ill to hospitals with an ICU unit but not much luck as they are full as well.

So.........they are having prayer meetings and the community is helping each other......because nobody else is, including the Texas Governor.

One guy was evacuated to an empty ICU room 100 miles away. He passed away a couple days later.

Suddenly, politics don't matter there anymore. Everyone is helping everyone. The anti-vaxxers are finally silenced.

Too little too late for some. This is.....or will, be happening all over the US. Hopefully, we will not suffer the same in Canada but let's not test our luck.


----------



## andrewf

Mainly because I don't really trust sags to relay facts accurately:









So many people in this Texas town got Covid-19 that the school district shut down and then the city essentially closed


As the coronavirus swept through the tiny west Texas town of Iraan, the schools were the first to shut down. The sheer number of cases and people in quarantine then essentially closed the entire city.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> Mainly because I don't really trust sags to relay facts accurately:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So many people in this Texas town got Covid-19 that the school district shut down and then the city essentially closed
> 
> 
> As the coronavirus swept through the tiny west Texas town of Iraan, the schools were the first to shut down. The sheer number of cases and people in quarantine then essentially closed the entire city.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


 ... agree only because his post downplayed the catastrophic effects of Covid on this small town as compared to your link (if one reads it).


----------



## Beaver101

Delta variant driving increase in child hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in U.S.

With school around the corner, gonna to be highlight of the 4th wave. 

I don't think this pandemic is gonna end until the mutations stop which could be the end of time. This is the worst case scenario.


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto restaurateur fed up with anti-vaccine protesters who keep screaming at guests and staff

Seriously. Don't these people have a "real" job to go to other than to harass small businesses?


----------



## sags

andrewf said:


> Mainly because I don't really trust sags to relay facts accurately:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So many people in this Texas town got Covid-19 that the school district shut down and then the city essentially closed
> 
> 
> As the coronavirus swept through the tiny west Texas town of Iraan, the schools were the first to shut down. The sheer number of cases and people in quarantine then essentially closed the entire city.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


I watched it on CNN.


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> Toronto restaurateur fed up with anti-vaccine protesters who keep screaming at guests and staff
> 
> Seriously. Don't these people have a "real" job to go to other than to harass small businesses?


Arrest and prosecute them for criminal harrassment to make sure they get a criminal record.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Arrest and prosecute them for criminal harrassment to make sure they get a criminal record.


Criminal records? For a protest? 
You know you aren't in Afghanistan thread, right?


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Criminal records? For a protest?
> You know you aren't in Afghanistan thread, right?


 .. what protest? In front of a private establishment? That's outright harassment ... not just at the business owner but also the customers. How would you like to enjoy your meal with those f-dickheads outside shouting and screaming at staff, neighbouring businesses and bypassing customers /pedestrians because they believe in your ideology of "their rights to be unvaccinated"? Look at them, all maskless too. [At least the masked cops were smart enough to stand 6' away from these Covidiots (repeat).]



> _They are disruptive to my neighbours, scream at our wonderful, supportive guests & staff & chant my name while yelling I’m a ‘Nazi, racist piece of **** queen bigot’ for hours._”


 ... btw, if these Covidiots are brave enough, they can bang their pots, shout and scream, jump up and down over at Queens Park or City Hall. Both are open now. Schools aren't until next week or so.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Arrest and prosecute them for criminal harrassment to make sure they get a criminal record.


 ... totally agree. The cops should haul their time and money-wasting (taxpayers' that is) asses away. Not sure what they're waiting for ... words from Tory? 

I think that business owner should withhold at least her BIA taxes for the disruption (ie close shop). Tory would love that.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> .. what protest? In front of a private establishment? That's outright harassment ... not just at the business owner but also the customers. How would you like to enjoy your meal with those f-dickheads outside shouting and screaming at staff, neighbouring businesses and bypassing customers /pedestrians because they believe in your ideology of "their rights to be unvaccinated"? Look at them, all maskless too. [At least the masked cops were smart enough to stand 6' away from these Covidiots (repeat).]
> 
> ... btw, if these Covidiots are brave enough, they can bang their pots, shout and scream, jump up and down over at Queens Park or City Hall. Both are open now. Schools aren't until next week or so.


Protesting private establishment is definitely a thing, it is legal.
Verbal or physical harassment of patrons or employees isn't.
I wasn't at the protest so don't know whether there were instances of harassment, but protesting private establishment is not illegal.
And I wouldn't want to be anywhere in it. But same goes for lots of protests, civil actions, road blockages, marches, etc.
Just because they make my life uncomfortable doesn't make them illegal


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Protesting private establishment is definitely a thing, it is legal.


 ... "exactly" what are these f-dickheads "protesting"? That the owner simply agreed (posted) it was a good idea for the province to come up with a vaccine passport? Only to be bombarded with shouts of "_Nazi, racist piece of **** queen bigot’ "_for hours.” And that's legal? Imagine the CEO of a bank/financial institution downtown gets "protested" with these dickheads... see how fast the cops will haul their asses away. So it was "legal" to target small businesses? These dickheads are nothing but a bunch of small-assed cowards to begin with, never mind about airing "their right to being anti-vaccine". Ie. nothing but a bunch of sh1t-disturbers at heart with too much time on their hands.



> Verbal or physical harassment of patrons or employees isn't.


 ... well, those shouting aimed at the restaurant outside didn't "exactly excluded" the staff nor the patrons.



> I wasn't at the protest so don't know whether there were instances of harassment, but protesting private establishment is not illegal.
> And I wouldn't want to be anywhere in it. But same goes for lots of protests, civil actions, road blockages, marches, etc.
> Just because they make my life uncomfortable doesn't make them illegal


 ... BS. That was not a protest, but outright harassment "targeted " at the business, its owner, the patrons and the neighouring business. Keep it up and push the business(es) to close. And let's see Tory /TPS collect his/their salaries when the business can't pay its taxes.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... "exactly" what are these f-dickheads "protesting"? That the owner simply agreed (posted) it was a good idea for the province to come up with a vaccine passport? Only to be bombarded with shouts of "_Nazi, racist piece of **** queen bigot’ "_for hours.” And that's legal? Imagine the CEO of a bank/financial institution downtown gets "protested" with these dickheads... see how fast the cops will haul their asses away. So it was "legal" to target small businesses? These dickheads are nothing but a bunch of small-assed cowards to begin with, never mind about airing "their right to being anti-vaccine". Ie. nothing but a bunch of sh1t-disturbers at heart with too much time on their hands.
> 
> ... well, those shouting aimed at the restaurant outside didn't "exactly excluded" the staff nor the patrons.
> 
> ... BS. That was not a protest, but outright harassment "targeted " at the business, its owner, the patrons and the neighouring business. Keep it up and push the business(es) to close. And let's see Tory /TPS collect his/their salaries when the business can't pay its taxes.


I don't know what they are protesting.
I personally wouldn't protest in this situation
I don't agree with most of their behavior
Despite all of that I will defend their right to protest.

There are plenty of protests all over the world, including in my city, that I completely disagree with.
I will still defend their right to protest

And if you are so concerned then you can protest their protest or spend money at the establishment


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> I don't know what they are protesting.


 ... so why are you commenting here? And all that it is "legal".



> I personally wouldn't protest in this situation
> I don't agree with most of their behavior


 ...and still why are you commenting here? And then your next comment:


> Despite all of that I will defend their right to protest.


 ... this is the most ridiculous* BS *I have ever heard. If you listen and/or read carefully on your post, you're *"defending their right to" "harass" *with a disguise of defending their right to protest. If you truly want to defend their right to "protest", you would have simply suggested they go over to Queen's Park/City to exercise "their right protest" about the call on the province for a vaccination passport, instead of picking on an "easy target".



> There are plenty of protests all over the world, including in my city, that I completely disagree with.
> I will still defend their right to protest.


 ... same BS. See above.



> And if you are so concerned then you can protest their protest or spend money at the establishment


 ... I do spend my $$$ at small businesses to support them, especially local restaurants. This one is out of my range. And posting the link (is the tiniest support) I can give to this one and acknowledge this small business do not harassments from *these low-lifers that you support. *Which tells alot.

Btw: Your defending of these dickheads to protest is absolutely cheap - same keyboard trolling.


----------



## sags

Screaming at someone as mentioned could well involve a number of criminal charges.

Harassment, assault, threatening, breach of peace.........for example.

The Crown needs to prove the actions happened and were intentional. Given the number of witnesses, that shouldn't be difficult to prove.

As long as there is no penalty for such actions, it will continue.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... so why are you commenting here? And all that it is "legal".
> 
> ...and still why are you commenting here? And then your next comment:
> ... this is the most ridiculous BS I have ever heard. If you listen and/or read carefully on your post, you're defending their right to "harass". if you truly're defending their right to "protest", you would have simply suggested they go over to Queen's Park/City to exercise "their right protest" about the call for on the province for a vaccination passport, instead of picking on an "easy target".
> 
> ... same BS. See above.
> 
> ... I do spend my $$$ at small businesses to support them, especially local restaurants. This one is out of my range. And posting the link (is the tiniest support) I can give to this one and acknowledge this small business do not harassments from these low-lifers that you support.


It is up to protesters to decide where they want to protest.
Not up to you or me.

And I don't support harassment at all. If there is harassment then it should be punished.
Protest next to a venue is not a harassment though


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> It is up to protesters to decide where they want to protest.
> Not up to you or me.


 ... then why are you commenting here/the link?



> And I don't support harassment at all. If there is harassment then it should be punished.
> Protest next to a venue is not a harassment though


 ... I guess you conveniently forgot what they verbally hurled at this business owner? Directly. Nice try to "next to the venue" is not a harassment though. Same BS.


----------



## damian13ster

No. Protesting next to the venue is not harassment.
Verbally hurling might be, depending of what the content is. So individuals who cross the legal line should be punished.
Those who don't cross the line of verbal abuse have the right to protest and there is zero reason to punish them.

I have already told you 3x why I am commenting here.
Will defend right to protest of every group, whether I belong to one, am involved, agree with them, or not.
Why is it so hard to understand one can support someone's rights without agreeing with that person? It is common sense


----------



## Beaver101

^ You can continue defending these dickheads to "protest" ... all is legal. 

Like I said, keep it up and the business will close and Tory will be happy or go "well, it's the police's job, not mine's."


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ^ You can continue defending these dickheads to "protest" ... all is legal.
> 
> Like I said, keep it up and the business will close and Tory will be happy or go "well, it's the police's job, not mine's."


What was Sags and your position when we had the native rail blockades ? In my opinion these acts  were far more serious that a group lawfully protesting against something they disagree with. Protestors are known to make noise and have signage that is aggravating . I have little sympathy for the anti-vaccers but I do believe they have a right to protest in a non-violent and peaceful manner.


----------



## Plugging Along

damian13ster said:


> It is up to protesters to decide where they want to protest.
> Not up to you or me.
> 
> And I don't support harassment at all. If there is harassment then it should be punished.
> Protest next to a venue is not a harassment though


Not true. Protesting on private property is illegal and can be considered trespassing. Protesting on public property is not. If protestor decides to protest in a store or restaurant, they can be legally removed. If they protestor is in the parking lot/sidewalk, and it's privately own, they can be legally removed. If the parking lot/sidewalk if public property, the cannot be legally removed. Also, in any case if one is swearing, or intimidating people regarding of the location, then that would be illegal in all cases It was not clear in the article if the protestors were on the property or not, so I couldn't say. 

If they protest beside the venue, that's fair game as long as it's not harassing. 

(was just posting for clarity no other reason)


----------



## OptsyEagle

You know who doesn't protest? The Delta variant covid-19 virus doesn't protest. Probably because it does not need to. You see, this virus doesn't care anymore whether you wear a mask. It doesn't care whether you vaccinate or not. It doesn't care whether the kids go back to school or stay at home. It doesn't care whether bars and restaurants are open or closed and it certainly doesn't care about vaccine passports or travel restrictions.

All it cares about is that you keep living on planet earth. Anywhere will do. If you do, it will eventually get around to visiting your house. After that you won't care about that stuff either. You will either be dead or immune.


----------



## gibor365

Curious, are there any stats what is probability of people who had original Covid or UK variant to get sick from Delta?


----------



## andrewf

Plugging Along said:


> Also, in any case if one is swearing, or intimidating people regarding of the location, then that would be illegal in all cases It was not clear in the article if the protestors were on the property or not, so I couldn't say.


AFAIK, it is not illegal to swear. You can't be removed from a public location just for swearing.


----------



## sags

Disturbing the peace ?

I don't know that people have such a depth of individual rights in pubic spaces as they presume.

The police have no problem removing tent cities from city parks for example.


----------



## andrewf

You typically can't camp in a public park without a permit, and can thereby be trespassed. 

I would frankly be shocked if a disorderly conduct charge would stick for merely swearing, though it is included in the criteria for the charge.


----------



## Plugging Along

andrewf said:


> AFAIK, it is not illegal to swear. You can't be removed from a public location just for swearing.


I am not a lawyer perhaps our residential lawyer @Mukhang pera will weigh in. I remember learning that one can be charged with swearing in public, though it's really rare to. If there were children or minors trying to go into the restaurant, then I would say that protestors would more likely be removed if swearing or screaming obscenities. 

Here's what I found from the Criminal Code.


> Causing disturbance, indecent exhibition, loitering, etc.
> 
> *175*(1) Every one who
> (a) not being in a dwelling-house, causes a disturbance in or near a public place,
> (i) by fighting, screaming, shouting, swearing, singing or using insulting or obscene language,
> (ii) by being drunk, or
> (iii) by impeding or molesting other persons,
> 
> (b) openly exposes or exhibits an indecent exhibition in a public place,
> (c) loiters in a public place and in any way obstructs persons who are in that place, or
> (d) disturbs the peace and quiet of the occupants of a dwelling-house by discharging firearms or by other disorderly conduct in a public place or who, not being an occupant of a dwelling-house comprised in a particular building or structure, disturbs the peace and quiet of the occupants of a dwelling-house comprised in the building or structure by discharging firearms or by other disorderly conduct in any part of a building or structure to which, at the time of such conduct, the occupants of two or more dwelling-houses comprised in the building or structure have access as of right or by invitation, express or implied,
> 
> 
> is guilty of an offence punishable on summary conviction.





> I would frankly be shocked if a disorderly conduct charge would stick for merely swearing, though it is included in the criteria for the charge.


This is where someone just dropping an f' bomb in public would not get charge. A group of people blocking the easement to protest a business while yelling, swearing would be different, especially if people are just trying to walk into an regular establishment. That would not be consider peaceful protesting but rather disturbing the peace.


----------



## andrewf

Of course, as written, it gives police pretty wide leeway to arrest people willy-nilly during routine encounters, as many people would tend to eventually lose their cool and utter an eventual 'swear'.


----------



## damian13ster

Australia just announced, despite having highest amount of cases since pandemic, that they will drop restrictions once vaccination rate at 70%, and focus on hospitalizations, not cases.


----------



## sags

That is an idea that failed in the US.........but hey, keep trying the same thing over and over and expect different results this time.

*Florida*



https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-08-20/bracing-for-the-worst-in-floridas-covid-19-hot-zone



*Texas*









FOX 7 Discussion: Texas hospitals overflowing with COVID-19 patients


Carrie Kroll with the Texas Hospital Association joins Rebecca Thomas to discuss THA requesting critical staffing assistance from Gov. Abbott.




www.fox7austin.com





*Mississippi*






*Everywhere*

_Richard Pollack, president of the American Hospital Association, outlined the worsening situation in a letter to Xavier Becerra, secretary of health and human services.1 He wrote, “The emergence of new covid-19 cases and associated hospitalizations is now accelerating at an alarming rate. For the week ending August 9, cases increased in 44 states and the District of Columbia.

“Cases increased in more than half of these states by 30% or more in just one week—a staggering escalation in the spread of covid-19. *Hospitalization rates have followed suit, increasing week-over-week in almost every state and DC, with 10 states and DC seeing increases of 50% or more . . .*_










Covid-19: US hospitals are overwhelmed as cases rise at “alarming rate”


The representative body of more than 5000 hospitals in the US has appealed to the federal government to release more than $48bn (£35.1bn; €40.9bn) to help them cope with a 43% increase in covid-19 hospital admissions over the past two weeks, which are especially affecting poorly vaccinated...




www.bmj.com





And not just in the US......*.Sri Lanka* announced a 10 day lock down due to increasing caseloads. They previously rejected lock downs.









Sri Lanka announces lockdown as coronavirus cases surge; president to address nation


Sri Lanka announced a 10-day lockdown starting on Friday night in an effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus, as surging infections and deaths overwhelm the island's health system.




www.reuters.com





Note....it isn't just numbers of "infections". It is hospitalizations that are overwhelming the healthcare systems and leads to more deaths.

Other countries already have or will need to lock down.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> Texas


This idea of "opening everything and dealing with it" is the kind of thing Texas said as well. Well how is it working out for them... they are almost back to all time highs in daily cases, and their death rate is trending up strongly, probably going to become similar to their peak deaths of last winter.

IMO this is a stupid kind of policy and only results in disaster, ultimately making quality of life worse for everyone.

What makes quality of life *better* is when you have reasonable safety measures, including mandatory masks and limits on crowding, and encourage the public to be careful.

Many US states (like Texas and Florida), plus some Canadian provinces (AB and SK) seem to have no interest in protecting the public.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> This idea of "opening everything and dealing with it" is the kind of thing Texas said as well. Well how is it working out for them... they are almost back to all time highs in daily cases, and their death rate is trending up strongly, probably going to become similar to their peak deaths of last winter.
> 
> IMO this is a stupid kind of policy and only results in disaster, ultimately making quality of life worse for everyone.
> 
> What makes quality of life *better* is when you have reasonable safety measures, including mandatory masks and limits on crowding, and encourage the public to be careful.
> 
> Many US states (like Texas and Florida), plus some Canadian provinces (AB and SK) seem to have no interest in protecting the public.


Israel is one of the most vaccinated country in the World where more than 1M got 3rd dose , tons of restrictions and “ they are almost back to all time highs in daily cases, and their death rate is trending up strongly, probably going to become similar to their peak deaths of last winter.”
The absolute maximum of 7 days average was before vaccination campaign at 8,300 and now it’s 7,700.


----------



## sags

Maybe the people in Israel were ignoring all the restrictions. They also tend to gather in large crowds for religious purposes.....regardless of restrictions.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Plugging Along said:


> I am not a lawyer perhaps our residential lawyer @Mukhang pera will weigh in. I remember learning that one can be charged with swearing in public, though it's really rare to. If there were children or minors trying to go into the restaurant, then I would say that protestors would more likely be removed if swearing or screaming obscenities.
> Here's what I found from the Criminal Code.
> ...
> This is where someone just dropping an f' bomb in public would not get charge. A group of people blocking the easement to protest a business while yelling, swearing would be different, especially if people are just trying to walk into an regular establishment. That would not be consider peaceful protesting but rather disturbing the peace.


I think PA has captured the essence of it in the next preceding paragraph.

Simply swearing in a public venue is not enough. Something 'more' is required to complete the offence. Not a lot of BC cases on point. Here's a passage from one:

[_16] More significant argument advanced on behalf of the
appellant is with reference to the disturbance as found by the
learned Provincial Court Judge. It is to be noted that mere
shouting, swearing or using insulting or obscene language is
not sufficient to create the offence under s. 175 of the
Criminal Code. That conduct must have caused a disturbance in
or near a public place. In that respect, the Court is entitled
to take into consideration, as did the learned Provincial Court
Judge, the time, place and circumstances surrounding the event. 
In addition, the Court is entitled to consider subsection (2)
of s. 175 which reads as follows:

(2) In the absence of other evidence, or by way of
corroboration of other evidence, a summary conviction
court may infer from the evidence of a peace officer
relating to the conduct of a person or persons,
whether ascertained or not, that a disturbance
described in paragraph (1)(a) or (d) was caused or
occurred._

R. v. Moore S.C., Melvin J., Victoria 82381, March 25, 1997 , 12pp.

Here's a case where the appeal judge disagreed with the trial judge about the elements of the s. 175 CC offence:

[_38] The appellant says his conviction is unsupported by the evidence for two reasons. First, the disturbance was already in progress when he arrived and his swearing did not materially affect the pre-existing circumstances. He cites *R. v.* *Marsman*, 2004 NSPC 17 in support. Second, he says his swearing did not interfere with the ordinary and customary use of the area by the public. 

[39] I have reviewed the record and I am unable to find any evidence that the swearing by the appellant interfered with the ordinary and customary use of the area outside the restaurant. Mr. Hondronikulis testified that the other two men involved in the altercation were already swearing when the appellant arrived and began to swear, as well. The evidence indicates he was not speaking loudly. Mr. Marins, the other Crown witness, did not testify to hearing the appellant swear at all. 

[40] It is clear from the evidence of both Crown witnesses that what caught their attention and led them and others to leave the street and seek refuge in the restaurant was not the appellant’s language but his actions with the chain. Neither Crown witness testified that his swearing had any effect on their actions that could be interpreted as interfering with their use of the public area. 

[41] I therefore find that there was no evidence that the appellant’s swearing interfered with the ordinary and customary use of the area by the public. _

R. v. Frulling S.C., Neilson J., 2006 BCSC 1950, Vancouver 23573, December 11, 2006 (oral), 14pp.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> This idea of "opening everything and dealing with it" is the kind of thing Texas said as well. Well how is it working out for them... they are almost back to all time highs in daily cases, and their death rate is trending up strongly, probably going to become similar to their peak deaths of last winter.
> 
> IMO this is a stupid kind of policy and only results in disaster, ultimately making quality of life worse for everyone.
> 
> What makes quality of life *better* is when you have reasonable safety measures, including mandatory masks and limits on crowding, and encourage the public to be careful.
> 
> Many US states (like Texas and Florida), plus some Canadian provinces (AB and SK) seem to have no interest in protecting the public.


You guys do realize that at some point in time we do need to open up our economy and eventually face the virus. I am not against putting on some breaks to give some temporary relief to hospitals but simply delaying this is just that, delaying it. Procrastinating the inevitable. Running away from something that needs to be faced.

The vaccinated have made their choice. The unvaccinated have also done so. Once we can secure the continuity of our health care system, it is time to move forward and pay whatever cost that requires. If anyone has a better plan, that does more then just delays this, I am all ears.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Maybe the people in Israel were ignoring all the restrictions. They also tend to gather in large crowds for religious purposes.....regardless of restrictions.


Why you are talking about things that you have no idea about?! Actually Israel even have vaccine passport that needed to attend practically all indoor gatherings and gatherings for religious purposes are not bigger than in Texas or Canada


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Many US states (like Texas and Florida), plus some Canadian provinces (AB and SK) seem to have no interest in protecting the public.


Or they are leaving up to the public to decide their own level of protection. I can see both sides of the argument but, IMO, if the healthcare system isn't being overloaded let people choose.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> Or they are leaving up to the public to decide their own level of protection. I can see both sides of the argument but, IMO, if the healthcare system isn't being overloaded let people choose.


As long as the hospitals aren't overloaded, there's no problem.

But if hospitals are overloaded then it's everyone's problem, and there's no choice but to add further restrictions.


----------



## damian13ster

gibor365 said:


> Why you are talking about things that you have no idea about?! Actually Israel even have vaccine passport that needed to attend practically all indoor gatherings and gatherings for religious purposes are not bigger than in Texas or Canada


Because he is anti-semite.

Texas did fine after opening for over 5 months.
You really think that it was dropping restrictions that resulted in rise in cases? It just didn't have effect at all for 4 months because of what? Delay?
So maybe we should take lesson and drop restrictions fully for 4 months and that had zero consequences for Texas.
Suddenly when 4th wave arrives everywhere in the world, it arrives in Texas and now it is because of lack of restrictions?
Laughable.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> As long as the hospitals aren't overloaded, there's no problem.
> 
> But if hospitals are overloaded then it's everyone's problem, and there's no choice but to add further restrictions.


 ... the "reality (as in real life instead of blabbles on this forum) is the public hospitals are going to be overloaded with services halted when the ICUs get filled with Covid patients because of the threat of "infection". Now if Covid patients are transferred to its "own hospital" (away from the rest of the hospital's population), then it's a different story. Right now, "medical experts (aka treating physicians) don't even know what treatment actually works ... other than throwing all kinds of arsenals (steroids, ventilators, etc.) at managing severe Covid symptoms. At least we (sans anti-vaxxers) are thankful for a vaccine.


----------



## damian13ster

You assume they get filled with COVID patients though.
In Alberta ICU numbers are barely 1/4 compared to previous wave.
Your assumption is basically based on a premise that vaccines don't work in slowing hospitalizations.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Because he is racist.
> 
> Texas did fine after opening for over 5 months.
> You really think that it was dropping restrictions that resulted in rise in cases? It just didn't have effect at all for 4 months because of what? Delay?
> So maybe we should take lesson and drop restrictions fully for 4 months and that had zero consequences for Texas.
> Suddenly when 4th wave arrives everywhere in the world, it arrives in Texas and now it is because of lack of restrictions?
> Laughable.


 ... if he's a racist, then you're a Covid expert. Everyone, including the world's virologists should be consulting you, correct?


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> You assume they get filled with COVID patients though.
> In Alberta ICU numbers are barely 1/4 compared to previous wave.
> *Your assumption is basically based on a premise that vaccines don't work in slowing hospitalizations.*


 ... better re-examine your post (again), especially the bolded sentence.


----------



## Beaver101

cainvest said:


> Or they are leaving up to the public to decide their own level of protection. I can see both sides of the argument but, IMO, if the healthcare system isn't being overloaded let people choose.


 .. yes, people can choose to not be vaccinated, not follow the restrictions or the necessary precautions and die in a corner. Just don't deprive others (aka infect others, the reckless ones) on their needs to use the healthcare systems. Can they do that?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> .. yes, people can choose to not be vaccinated, not follow the restrictions or the necessary precautions and die in a corner. Just don't deprive others (aka infect others, the reckless ones) on their needs to use the healthcare systems. Can they do that?


No, and they shouldn't.

In Canada the government helps people, irrespective of if you brought on the problems through your own bad decisions or not.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Israel is one of the most vaccinated country in the World where more than 1M got 3rd dose , tons of restrictions and “ they are almost back to all time highs in daily cases, and their death rate is trending up strongly, probably going to become similar to their peak deaths of last winter.”
> The absolute maximum of 7 days average was before vaccination campaign at 8,300 and now it’s 7,700.


 .. and yet you're still here, in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada. Why is it that? Must love the restrictions here ... and your moral right to refuse lockdowns. LMAO.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> No, and they shouldn't.
> 
> In Canada the government helps people, irrespective of if you brought on the problems through your own bad decisions or not.


 ... well, someone people on this forum don't see it that way. Remember, "they" have "rights". "Their rights" trump over everyone else's rights in this society. Ie. they give a sh1t.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> You guys do realize that at some point in time we do need to open up our economy and eventually face the virus. I am not against putting on some breaks to give some temporary relief to hospitals but simply delaying this is just that, delaying it. Procrastinating the inevitable. Running away from something that needs to be faced.


 ... what are you "exactly" trying to say here? Exactly "who" are you referring to as procrastinating here? The fear mongers? Exactly what are they running away from? The pandemic is still on and we (the prudent ones) are still working, out shopping (following 6' away protocol), and breathing (with our masks on outside and instore). Today in TO (probably not the only city in Canada now) is really humid, if not sunny. Looks like we're gonna get some major rain tonight.



> The vaccinated have made their choice. The unvaccinated have also done so. Once we can secure the continuity of our health care system, it is time to move forward and pay whatever cost that requires. If anyone has a better plan, that does more then just delays this, I am all ears.


 ... the "plan" was already outlined ... in the course of more than a year past. But some people "chooses" not to follow the plan.


----------



## damian13ster

The outlined plan was 10 day lockdown to flatten the curve 
Then it was 'until everyone who wants to will get a vaccine'

The plan was perhaps outlined, but it was governments that didn't follow it, not the people


----------



## Beaver101

^ Ever heard of a work-in-progress plan? Or a business continuity plan?


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Ever heard of a work-in-progress plan? Or a business continuity plan?


If a plan goes from 10 day lockdown to attempt to introduce dictatorship (in 2nd coronavirus relief package) and abuse human rights 18 months later, it is no longer the same plan.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> If a plan goes from 10 day lockdown to attempt to introduce dictatorship (in 2nd coronavirus relief package) and abuse human rights 18 months later, it is no longer the same plan.


 .. if you say so. When are plans static? Do you work, like in some gainful employment ?


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> .. if you say so. When are plans static? Do you work, like in some gainful employment ?


There is a limit on what can be done under CRQ and what needs to be a new project.
You don't have a 10,000$ project that lasts a week that then is changed into 2 year project with 340bln deficit.

You accused people from not following outlined plan. They did. Until it turned out government is useless, has no plans, breaks every promise, and used the opportunity to grab more power while trampling human rights. Then people stopped following the 'plan'

The onus is on incoherent government and officials. Not on citizens


----------



## andrewf

gibor365 said:


> Israel is one of the most vaccinated country in the World where more than 1M got 3rd dose , tons of restrictions and “ they are almost back to all time highs in daily cases, and their death rate is trending up strongly, probably going to become similar to their peak deaths of last winter.”
> The absolute maximum of 7 days average was before vaccination campaign at 8,300 and now it’s 7,700.


Israel had lifted most restrictions, and people are largely ignoring the limited ones that have been reimposed.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> Israel had lifted most restrictions, and people are largely ignoring the limited ones that have been reimposed.


Fake news!
As per Jun 25
*Israel has reintroduced a requirement to wear masks indoors amid a rise in coronavirus cases, just days after it lifted the measure.








Coronavirus: Israel reimposes masks amid new virus fears


It comes just days after the last restriction was lifted, as concerns grow over a spate of cases.



www.bbc.com




*
Later, a tons of additional restrictions were reinstated and new ones added
_*Israel is now requiring anyone over the age of three to show proof of vaccination or a negative Covid-19 test before entering many indoor spaces, as it tackles a sharp rise in infections.*_
*Restaurants, cafes, museums, libraries, gyms and pools are among the venues covered by the "Green Pass" system.
The government has sought to combat the surge by reinstating the restrictions it lifted in mid-June and by bringing back the Green Pass, which shows whether someone has been fully vaccinated, has recently recovered from Covid-19, or tested negative in the previous 24 hours.*
_*Before Wednesday only children aged 12 and over, who have been eligible to get a vaccine since June, and adults were required to present a Green Pass.








Israel extends Covid restrictions to three-year-olds as cases surge


Young children must show proof of a negative test to enter many indoor spaces, as infections surge.



www.bbc.com




*_
63% of total Israeli population are fully vaccinated, 1.5M!!! are super-duper-extra-vaccinated (already got 3rd shot)!
Only 46% of Texas is fully vaccinated!
And now Israel has on average 8,000 new cases per day for population 9,187,000

Texas with NO ANY restrictions has now 16,634 new cases per day for population of 29M
Thus, Israel has 1.5 times more daily cases!

Clearly, no restrictions, no vaccines are helping

P.S. People ignoring restrictions in Israel not more than in Canada


----------



## OptsyEagle

Beaver101 said:


> ... what are you "exactly" trying to say here? Exactly "who" are you referring to as procrastinating here? The fear mongers? Exactly what are they running away from? The pandemic is still on and we (the prudent ones) are still working, out shopping (following 6' away protocol), and breathing (with our masks on outside and instore). Today in TO (probably not the only city in Canada now) is really humid, if not sunny. Looks like we're gonna get some major rain tonight.
> 
> ... the "plan" was already outlined ... in the course of more than a year past. But some people "chooses" not to follow the plan.


If you really want to know I am talking to you and all the other posters who seem to want to hide behind your masks and avoid people in some futile hope that you can actually avoid meeting this virus. When the hospitals get close to full capacity we can revisit temporary restrictions, but until then it is just delaying what needs to be done.

*The plan was simple. Protect ourselves until we develop a vaccine.* We have done that. So now, what are we waiting for? If someone gets infected and dies, that cannot be prevented because there is no more for us to do, to save them long term. To restrict citizens and businesses just to keep a person from getting infected and dying this month only to see them get infected and die next year, is certainly not worth the cost of all the restrictions. That is what I am talking about...and it probably won't even delay it that long.

I have asked quite a few times now. If anyone has a better plan, that offers anything more then a delay in us eventually facing this virus, please post it. So far no one has offered anything more then to continue with previous restrictions and covid protocols that will not work this time around. They only worked because the majority of people followed them. The majority of people followed them because they were afraid of the virus. Those people are now vaccinated and they are not afraid anymore. Those safety protocols, like masks and distancing will not work anymore, because they will not be used like they were before. The person that does not get infected by being forced to wear a mask in the Canadian Tire will simply get their infection when they meet with their friends and family on the weekend. At most it gets delayed a short time. Those covid safely protocols are not going to work this time around.

Why is this so difficult for everyone to see?


----------



## sags

Hawaii is telling people NOT to go there to vacation. They are applying a lot of restrictions as the hospitals are at 120% ICU capacity.

Doctors there say they are not able to treat other patients in the ER or ICU units.

A patient arrived with a severe heart attack and had to wait hours before they could find a bed for him. Another with cancer has to wait for treatment.

People need to stop being so stupid and clogging up the hospital system. The world doesn't revolve around them.









Hawaii governor asks tourists to stay away as Covid cases and hospitalizations hit record highs


Hawaii Gov. David Ige asked tourists to voluntarily stay away from the state amid a record surge in Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations, though he stopped short of placing onerous restrictions on out-of-state visitors.




www.cnn.com


----------



## sags

Israel relaxed restrictions and then had to re-apply them. A highly vaccinated public is in trouble.

Sri Lanka has locked down for 10 days. I bet it won't be long before India is in the news again.

Relaxing restrictions has failed everywhere it was tried.


----------



## sags

The plan is to get vaccinated and protect yourself from exposure as best you can. Then get a booster shot ASAP.

The virus has changed the battle and our strategy, and we have to adapt to it.

As one expert said.......the science will save us, but we have to be patient and wait for it.

Maybe we will have nasal boosters to keep our immunity topped up.

Maybe we will have a medicine that treats the virus immediately, that isn't a crazy horse dewormer type of product.

Nobody knows the future but we can learn from the past, and removing restrictions has always been a mistake


----------



## zinfit

OptsyEagle said:


> You guys do realize that at some point in time we do need to open up our economy and eventually face the virus. I am not against putting on some breaks to give some temporary relief to hospitals but simply delaying this is just that, delaying it. Procrastinating the inevitable. Running away from something that needs to be faced.
> 
> The vaccinated have made their choice. The unvaccinated have also done so. Once we can secure the continuity of our health care system, it is time to move forward and pay whatever cost that requires. If anyone has a better plan, that does more then just delays this, I am all ears.


good point. I was looking at the Swedish data . it looks like recent cases counts and death rates are much lower than the EU countries who were preoccupied with restrictions, mandates and lockdowns.May-be the Swedes are less socialistic then first thought.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The plan is to get vaccinated and protect yourself from exposure as best you can. Then get a booster shot ASAP.
> 
> The virus has changed the battle and our strategy, and we have to adapt to it.
> 
> As one expert said.......the science will save us, but we have to be patient and wait for it.
> 
> Maybe we will have nasal boosters to keep our immunity topped up.
> 
> Maybe we will have a medicine that treats the virus immediately, that isn't a crazy horse dewormer type of product.
> 
> Nobody knows the future but we can learn from the past, and removing restrictions has always been a mistake


That is pathetic. Grow a pair will ya.

How long do you really think our businesses can hold out while you cower at home? It certainly is a lot easier for retired people, that's for sure. If things get worse we can attempt to pump the breaks then but until that time let's not get hysterical. What Hawaii is doing is irrelevant. Texas, Mississippi, all that is just an attempt to scare people. We have very good vaccination rates here in Canada. There is a very good chance our hospitals can deal with the next wave and if they can't we should deal with that when it arises.

In any case, the old fight is over. You can put in all the restrictions and protocols you want. The only effective ones in the past were the restrictions for outdoor and indoor numbers within private homes and as I said, most people will not abide by those anymore. So whatever is going to happen in the future is going to happen, so as I suggest you buck up deal with it.


----------



## sags

We spent more money shopping during the pandemic than ever before.


----------



## sags

Remember the old saying.........fools rush in where angels fear to tread.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> The outlined plan was 10 day lockdown to flatten the curve
> Then it was 'until everyone who wants to will get a vaccine'
> 
> The plan was perhaps outlined, but it was governments that didn't follow it, not the people


The idea that a vaccine would stop COVID19 was scientifically unlikely from the beginning.
The problem now is that governments said vaccines would work, and they didn't, losing even more credibility.

Really, without vaccination widespread COVID19 would overload the hospitals and kill and maim enough of the population to create a real mess.
Now there is little support for lockdowns, and with high levels of vaccination overwhelming massive deaths and permanent injury are less likely. This is likely the path we will go down.

I think they should work on more and better vaccines, and treatment. But really we're going to open up.

Also the vaccine passport thing, I don't think people will support this once they push the mandatory 6 month cycle.

I think this is a good idea, but I think there is a problem when normal life requires showing "your papers" everywhere you go. I understand and support the objective, but this is a human rights violation that's ripe for abuse.
Even though "right now" it's for a "good cause".

What about when they push for flu, or chicken pox, or something else... 
maybe they'll merge criminal record into the screener.
Who knows... but I trust government as much as I trust Donald Trump or Justin Trudeau.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> We spent more money shopping during the pandemic than ever before.


Not in the businesses that were closed down because they require close contact with others. I can assure you if you owned one of those businesses that your severe fear of the unknown would change quickly to a major fear of your impending bankruptcy.

To think that we should shut them down or limit entry or access until we, what did you ask for again, develop a treatment for covid-19. Give every Canadian another 3rd booster shot. I mean are you serious? Are you going to present that plan to those business owners?


----------



## sags

The pandemic is similar to a war or natural disaster, and businesses do shut down and go bankrupt during those events as well.

The pandemic is worse than a natural disaster because it continues on with no end is sight.


----------



## james4beach

damian13ster said:


> Because he is anti-semite.


Your posts are getting weirder over time. Eagerly waiting to see where you end up by winter!


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The pandemic is similar to a war or natural disaster, and businesses do shut down and go bankrupt during those events as well.
> 
> The pandemic is worse than a natural disaster because it continues on with no end is sight.


Only in your hopes and dreams.

The good news is that the Delta variant combined with mass vaccination in Canada will end this pandemic. As I said Sags, even if you do convince some of our leaders to follow in your shaking footsteps, the previous restrictions will not work anymore. Vaccinated people will not abide by the social distancing rules anymore and the delta variant will spread like wild fire, this fall and winter. That should naturally inoculate enough of the vaccine hold outs to finally bring this locking down/restriction nonsense to an end.

The vast majority of the fully vaccinated are not in enough danger anymore to change their lifestyle to that degree ever again.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> If you really want to know I am talking to you and all the other posters who seem to want to hide behind your masks and avoid people in some futile hope that you can actually avoid meeting this virus.


 ... if we take the public transit (for eg.), a mask is required. If we visit stores, hospitals, medical/dental offices, a mask is required. Btw, it's the "law" in TO in case you got your head stucked in your keyboard. So it's obvious we need to "hide" behind our masks. And even the "masks" ain't a sure thing of avoiding the virus. Like I said, you're more than welcome to go get infected and see how Covid works for you. So don't put a BS spin about us hiding/avoiding the virus. In a way, I'm "very" thankful masks are mandated, at the very least I don't have to smell (unpleasant) folks with your type of mindset and accusations.



> When the hospitals get close to full capacity we can revisit temporary restrictions, but until then it is just delaying what needs to be done.


 ... really? And then those who wants to exercise their "moral rights" will be "SCREAMING" (at least on this forum) on those restrictions. They're SUFFOCATING!



> *The plan was simple. Protect ourselves until we develop a vaccine.* We have done that. So now, what are we waiting for?


 .. who is waiting? Sounds like you're with your constant past-its-best-before-date postings/accuastions of people being fear mongers (by chance are you a humanoid, too?), procrastinators, and worst of, not playing your game of Russian roulette. Moreover, I'm not aware (nor able to to presume) that the "virus waits for anyone".



> If someone gets infected and dies, that cannot be prevented because there is no more for us to do, to save them long term.


 ... yes it can for the majority of the population. That's why the vaccine was developed, ain't it? Can't say the same thing for anti-vaxxers though.



> To restrict citizens and businesses just to keep a person from getting infected and dying this month only to see them get infected and die next year, is certainly not worth the cost of all the restrictions. That is what I am talking about...and it probably won't even delay it that long.


 ... most restrictions (in TO) have already been restricted so what month in 2020 are you living in currently? Besides, we (as in citizens and the citizens in businesses) do NOT make/determine the "restrictions".



> I have asked quite a few times now. If anyone has a better plan, that offers anything more then a delay in us eventually facing this virus, please post it. So far no one has offered anything more then to continue with previous restrictions and covid protocols that will not work this time around. They only worked because the majority of people followed them. The majority of people followed them because they were afraid of the virus.


 ... people are humans. And it's only natural for humans to be fearful. So what's your point here? You're fearless? See above invite to the Covid party. As said in my other post, the plan was outlined to us ... at least those who can and "want" to "see" that plan.



> Those people are now vaccinated and they are not afraid anymore. Those safety protocols, like masks and distancing will not work anymore, because they will not be used like they were before.


 ... they'll continue to work. They're the only other tools we have at the moment other than the vaccine. Even the vaccine isn't a silver bullet (and I hope you realize that as the forum's "virus expert"). If you think it's, then you're feel-free to skip the booster shot(s).



> The person that does not get infected by being forced to wear a mask in the Canadian Tire will simply get their infection when they meet with their friends and family on the weekend.


 ... if they chooses to. Provided their friends are healthy enough to meet up with them. Or better yet, get infected from the friend(s), and meet up with grandpa. See how grandpa cope. If they're lucky enough, like UKdude's 90 years old grandpa, they can still do cartwheels ... only in heaven.



> At most it gets delayed a short time. Those covid safely protocols are not going to work this time around.
> 
> *Why is this so difficult for everyone to see?*


 ... only you say so.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> Not in the businesses that were closed down because they require close contact with others. I can assure you if you owned one of those businesses that your severe fear of the unknown would change quickly to a major fear of your impending bankruptcy.


 ... like strip-clubs? And aren't you abit old for nightclubs? I'm certain you don't need to attend a gym either unless you want to oogle at those half-naked "look at me" KK wannabees there. If you're not in those things, then how about Canada Wonderland? No? Have you travelled outside of your city, out of province, out of country since beginning of 2020? I bet not. And I'm not hearing grocery stores, banks, and of the likes (big box stores), etc. of going bankrupt anytime. Only the 'small businesses' of which only a "selective" part of the population is supporting.



> To think that we should shut them down or limit entry or access until we, what did you ask for again, develop a treatment for covid-19. Give every Canadian another 3rd booster shot. I mean are you serious? Are you going to present that plan to those business owners?


 ... no, business owners are waiting for our MIA premier (Ontario's Doug Ford) to answer the call for a vaccine passport. If Quebec can come up with one, how hard is it for Ontario? Playing the "invisible" or "silence" game is only delaying the inevitable of which you can say here. But don't. Wonder why?


----------



## OptsyEagle

Let it go beav. You can mask up on buses, in stores, at church, all you want. If people still socialize the virus is going to spread. The only way that can be stopped is if you implement rules,_ and more importantly_, people abide by them. The majority of vaccinated Canadians have gone on with their life and will not be abiding by them anymore, because it is safe for them to do so. The old way of fighting this pandemic will not work anymore. I suggest you and others prepare for that reality.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> Let it go beav. You can mask up on buses, in stores, at church, all you want. If people still socialize the virus is going to spread. The only way that can be stopped is if you implement rules,_ and more importantly_, people abide by them. The majority of vaccinated Canadians have gone on with their life and will not be abiding by them anymore, because it is safe for them to do so. The old way of fighting this pandemic will not work anymore. * I suggest you and others prepare for that reality.*


 ... suggest you take your own advice (or maybe a better word is medicine). From my post #5769 from "3 days ago":




> #5,769





> · 3 d ago
> 
> Delta variant driving increase in child hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in U.S.
> 
> With school around the corner, gonna to be highlight of the 4th wave.
> 
> *I don't think this pandemic is gonna end until the mutations stop which could be the end of time. This is the worst case scenario*.


----------



## MyCatMittens

Beaver101 said:


> And I'm not hearing grocery stores, banks, and of the likes (big box stores), etc. of going bankrupt anytime. Only the 'small businesses' of which only a "selective" part of the population is supporting.


Are you for real? Seriously, do you have any understanding of the impact small businesses have on our jobs/economy? I must be misunderstanding your post, because nobody could be that dense. Glad that Amazon, Royal Bank, and Loblaw aren't going bankrupt.


----------



## Beaver101

MyCatMittens said:


> Are you for real? Seriously, do you have any understanding of the impact small businesses have on our jobs/economy? I must be misunderstanding your post, because nobody could be that dense. Glad that Amazon, Royal Bank, and Loblaw aren't going bankrupt.


 ... might ask yourself all those questions and your reading comprehension first. Plus use your own imagination or choice of words.


----------



## MyCatMittens

Beaver101 said:


> ... might ask yourself all those questions and your reading comprehension first. Plus use your own imagination or choice of words.


Oh crap. Normally I read twice before I respond  My sincere apologies. To be fair, it was my own words. I constantly see posts with little disregard for small business of which I am a big supporter. Again, sorry for not thoroughly reading your post.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> The only way that can be stopped is if you implement rules,_ and more importantly_, people abide by them. The majority of vaccinated Canadians have gone on with their life and will not be abiding by them anymore, because it is safe for them to do so.


Your post shows one of the problems. "because it is safe for them to do so" -- nope, it is not safe.

Public Health measures and enforcement pushes the public to do things which don't occur to them on their own. You, just like many other Canadians, have a _misunderstanding_ that normal socializing and partying is "safe for them". But it's NOT as safe as life in 2019.

It's less dangerous than it previously was (before vaccination) but partying and socializing is still risky behaviour. So is travel, so are any other indoor gatherings like gyms. That's exactly why we are going to get the Public Health measures. It's because people don't quite understand the situation.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> Your post shows one of the problems. "because it is safe for them to do so" -- nope, it is not safe.


You really do need to stop listening to the hysterical posters on this board and do some independent research. Separate out the numbers of infected vaccinated people and you will see that, most shouldn't even be called infected and if you do not have any immune deficiencies or are not very old and frail, it is very unlikely that covid will kill you. Nothing is perfectly safe. For example, I imagine there are a few people, currently in the ICU, that were in a traffic accident today. That does not mean that it is not safe enough to drive for the vast majority of us. Covid for the fully vaccinated and healthy, is just a little safer then that. If you can't see that then take another look.

Anyway, it does not matter. The vast majority of the vaccinated are not reading these posts. They feel safe. They are safe and it will be very difficult, if not nearing on the impossible, to turn around their behavior. As I said, good luck with that.

When the nature of the battle changes dramatically, I highly suggest you discard your old battle strategies and formulate new ones, if you want to be victorious and survive.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> It's less dangerous than it previously was (before vaccination) but partying and socializing is still risky behaviour.


But how risky is it for the fully vaccinated now? I mean at what point do stop with restrictions ... maybe when the numbers equal average flu hospitalization/death rates which everyone was ok with?


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> You really do need to stop listening to the hysterical posters on this board and do some independent research.


I do all my own research. I have a circle of friends who are doctors, and I talk with them, ask what they are seeing in their hospitals, and compare notes.

I'm just being honest here and sharing my own best assessment. I am one of the "boldest" people on this board. I'm flying around (and I even flew several times in 2020), I'm going out every day, I socialize, I hop between provinces and see lots of people. I've been going out and doing things even while everyone was trapped at home. I will continue to fly on planes and even my parents (in their 70s) are getting ready to fly to Europe.

My evaluation says that we're not out of the woods. Covid remains a very dangerous illness, and a vaccinated person can still end up with a serious illness. A vaccinated person can also infect others. The virus is also going to mutate, and that remains a wildcard which we all have to be wary of.

I don't stop my lifestyle. I'm just saying, wear a mask in public and avoid risky situations. Don't party with large numbers of people.

How hard is that? Seriously, are you that inconvenienced by just being a little bit cautious? I hardly even notice these inconveniences in my life.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> I do all my own research. I have a circle of friends who are doctors, and I talk with them, ask what they are seeing in their hospitals, and compare notes.
> 
> I'm just being honest here and sharing my own best assessment. I am one of the "boldest" people on this board. I'm flying around (and I even flew several times in 2020), I'm going out every day, I socialize, I hop between provinces and see lots of people. I've been going out and doing things even while everyone was trapped at home. I will continue to fly on planes and even my parents (in their 70s) are getting ready to fly to Europe.
> 
> My evaluation says that we're not out of the woods. Covid remains a very dangerous illness, and a vaccinated person can still end up with a serious illness. A vaccinated person can also infect others. The virus is also going to mutate, and that remains a wildcard which we all have to be wary of.
> 
> I don't stop my lifestyle. I'm just saying, wear a mask in public and avoid risky situations. Don't party with large numbers of people.
> 
> How hard is that? Seriously, are you that inconvenienced by just being a little bit cautious? I hardly even notice these inconveniences in my life.


Good. The problem is that, in the past, wearing a mask in public allowed us to avoid an infection that might have been moderate to possibly severe, before vaccination. Now that same infection is unlikely to be anything more then mild and we could really use those mild exposures. If we are going to be prepared to handle the indoor, longer time exposure infections, we could really use a little mild exposure to this exact virus. I cannot imagine a more safe exposure then short time intervals in a retail store or just about anything outdoors.

That is how you fight the pandemic when you cannot stop the infections anymore...and as I have said, we cannot stop them, from this point on. You must see that. The vaccinated are not going to behave the way they use to.

The covid protocols that protected us before are going to exclude us from the only thing that can protect us enough in the future. Mild exposure to Delta covid. We all need it. That is how pandemics end. That is how this one will end.


----------



## sags

If we lockdown the virus will fizzle out. We will be hibernating over the winter. Stock up and prepare while you can.


----------



## james4beach

@OptsyEagle but also remember that vaccinated people can pass the virus to other people.

We've got 10 million adults in Canada who aren't fully vaccinated yet. That's a huge number, and they are all around us. I see it as my civic duty to wear a mask in case this mild sniffle I have is actually covid/delta.

More generally, when hospitals are getting loaded, I see it as my duty to not contribute to the problem. There are enough people out there already spreading covid... yes I can't stop them. But I can make sure I don't add fuel to the fire.

When I flew from BC (an outbreak zone) into MB (almost covid-free), I didn't want to be that guy who brings an active covid infection into MB and spreads it around.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> If we lockdown the virus will fizzle out. We will be hibernating over the winter. Stock up and prepare while you can.


No it won't. It never did - not in a single place in the world.
18 months of attempts, everywhere in the world, and 100% failure rate yet you are still suggesting the same expecting different result


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> @OptsyEagle but also remember that vaccinated people can pass the virus to other people.
> 
> *We've got 10 million adults in Canada who aren't fully vaccinated yet*. That's a huge number, and they are all around us. I see it as my civic duty to wear a mask in case this mild sniffle I have is actually covid/delta.


This is their choice and their problem! It made sense when we didn't have enough vaccines, not any more....


----------



## sags

damian13ster said:


> No it won't. It never did - not in a single place in the world.
> 18 months of attempts, everywhere in the world, and 100% failure rate yet you are still suggesting the same expecting different result


Go back through the thread and see who was right and who wasn't.


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> This is their choice and their problem! It made sense when we didn't have enough vaccines, not any more....


It's not always their choice. Some people had very severe reactions to the first shot, and were advised by doctors to NOT get a second shot.

Some people have auto immune disorders and cannot be protected. Some people have other disorders and cannot be vaccinated. Then there are very young people who are the bottom of the vaccination list, and might have travelled or other had other disruptions which are delaying their second dose (I know a young lady in that situation).

And there are the elderly, whose immunity from vaccination is going to be weaker than yours, and will wear off with time. And some people will have bad luck and didn't get a great immune system response to begin with.

gibor if you were someone who had this kind of misfortune, wouldn't you want other people to be considerate of you? Be a nice neighbour to others. If you wear a mask in public areas you are helping protect others, and it's such a minor inconvenience for you.

_You would_ want others to do the same for you. I hope that I don't ever get a serious illness, but if I did, I'd want others to help keep me safe.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> It's not always their choice. Some people had very severe reactions to the first shot, and were advised by doctors to NOT get a second shot.
> 
> Some people have auto immune disorders and cannot be protected. Some people have other disorders and cannot be vaccinated. Then there are very young people who are the bottom of the vaccination list, and might have travelled or other had other disruptions which are delaying their second dose (I know a young lady in that situation).
> 
> gibor if you were someone who had this kind of misfortune, wouldn't you want other people to be considerate of you? Be a nice neighbour to others. If you wear a mask in public areas you are helping protect others, and it's such a minor inconvenience for you.
> 
> _You would_ want others to do the same for you. I hope that I don't ever get a serious illness, but if I did, I'd want others to help keep me safe.


Do a reserah about it! There is a extremely small amount of people who cannot have Covid vaccine!
Because of them , the world shouldn't be lockdowned. 99.99% who is not vaccinated- just don't want to and don't give [email protected] about others.
There are much much higher percentage of people who has a very severe allergy on pets , so what?! should all pets be killed?! Many people have huge allergy on sun, on specific food and so on and so on...
imo, those people should accommodate themselves to reality..... in covid case, you cannot have vaccines and you are scared -> sit at home, order food online etc.
P.S. The current reality is so stupid! We cannot play indoor volleyball and go to gym's SPA area, because of extremely small amount of people have alergy for needles?! Why majority of population should have mental issues because of it?!


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> You really do need to stop listening to the hysterical posters on this board and do some independent research. Separate out the numbers of infected vaccinated people and you will see that, most shouldn't even be called infected and if you do not have any immune deficiencies or are not very old and frail, it is very unlikely that covid will kill you. Nothing is perfectly safe. For example, I imagine there are a few people, currently in the ICU, that were in a traffic accident today. That does not mean that it is not safe enough to drive for the vast majority of us. Covid for the fully vaccinated and healthy, is just a little safer then that. If you can't see that then take another look.
> 
> Anyway, it does not matter. The vast majority of the vaccinated are not reading these posts.  They feel safe. They are safe and it will be very difficult, if not nearing on the impossible, to turn around their behavior. As I said, good luck with that.
> 
> When the nature of the battle changes dramatically, I highly suggest you discard your old battle strategies and formulate new ones, if you want to be victorious and survive.


 ... as repeatedly said, you first with the Russian roulette game on Covid. Besides, at no point did I ever hear you say or even hint about going maskless when required. All I heard is your encouragement (more like direction which is not limited only to you on this forum, btw) to others to "get infected" so as to achieve herd immunity. Guess what? Forum's virus expert. That's not happening. This is confirmed in the link below in case you missed it or that your head go stucked in your keyboard:

‘Herd immunity’ no longer possible without vaccinating young children: Public Health Ontario


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> This is their choice and their problem! It made sense when we didn't have enough vaccines, not any more....


 ... all this time, you still don't get it. Their problem is also your problem. You don't own the world nor the free air around you.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> @OptsyEagle but also remember that vaccinated people can pass the virus to other people.
> 
> We've got 10 million adults in Canada who aren't fully vaccinated yet. That's a huge number, and they are all around us. I see it as my civic duty to wear a mask in case this mild sniffle I have is actually covid/delta.
> 
> More generally, when hospitals are getting loaded, I see it as my duty to not contribute to the problem. There are enough people out there already spreading covid... yes I can't stop them. But I can make sure I don't add fuel to the fire.


If I thought the unvaccinated were currently in line to get vaccinated, right now, I would be with you on all that, but you and I both know that is not the case. Vaccine passports will move quite a few along, but here in Ontario our Premier does not want to live in a divided society. I suppose he doesn't consider dead as a divide between the alive.

Anyway, I just don't want to lose good opportunities to obtain mild exposure (booster protection) that I am going to need in this life. *We are actually probably looking at the identical data but we are just responding to it differently*. You want to back away do what you can to stop the spread, whereas I don't believe that is possible. Not only do we have the vaccinated causing a problem with that but also the rest of the world. Our businesses cannot handle another shut down and I am not sure our citizens can either. So I look at the vaccine data and say, hmmm, looks like it provides some pretty good protection but it is not the bullet proof vest we are going to need. Instead of hoping to keep this delta variant at bay until someone invents something to solve that problem, I simply look at the problem and attempt to figure out a way to deal with it myself. The best way is to start getting exposure to the virus as safely as you can. The safest way is outdoors but that window of opportunity is going to start to shut down in about 4 or 5 weeks. The next best way is limited time exposure.
As I said, whatever you can say about the vaccine it certainly has the power to turn a moderate infection, pre-vaccination, into a mild or asymptomatic one after full vaccination, for the relatively healthy person. So the only place I am going to get a limited time exposure is in retail stores, etc., with my mask off. That type of exposure is not going to kill the healthy vaccinated person. It is going to give them the closest thing to a bullet proof vest they are ever going to get. Certainly ever get before the more dangerous infections start going around in the fall and winter and if immunity does wane, is it not better to face this thing earlier then later?

In my opinion, that is the best way to ensure you don't contribute to the problem with our hospitals. It is also the safest way for the unvaccinated to get their inevitable infections as well.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> If we lockdown the virus will fizzle out. We will be hibernating over the winter. Stock up and prepare while you can.


 ... I would put the word "maybe as in hopefully" before your "virus will fizzle out." I agree wit the rest ... looks like we're going to have a repeat if we don't get the Delta variant tamed. The kids are gonna to be hard hit and round and round we go.


----------



## Beaver101

MyCatMittens said:


> Oh crap. Normally I read twice before I respond  My sincere apologies. To be fair, it was my own words. I constantly see posts with little disregard for small business of which I am a big supporter. Again, sorry for not thoroughly reading your post.


 .. no problem. I presumed you meant "little regard for small business" ... not disregard. Big businesses don't need our regards ... just our money.


----------



## zinfit

OptsyEagle said:


> You really do need to stop listening to the hysterical posters on this board and do some independent research. Separate out the numbers of infected vaccinated people and you will see that, most shouldn't even be called infected and if you do not have any immune deficiencies or are not very old and frail, it is very unlikely that covid will kill you. Nothing is perfectly safe. For example, I imagine there are a few people, currently in the ICU, that were in a traffic accident today. That does not mean that it is not safe enough to drive for the vast majority of us. Covid for the fully vaccinated and healthy, is just a little safer then that. If you can't see that then take another look.
> 
> Anyway, it does not matter. The vast majority of the vaccinated are not reading these posts. They feel safe. They are safe and it will be very difficult, if not nearing on the impossible, to turn around their behavior. As I said, good luck with that.
> 
> When the nature of the battle changes dramatically, I highly suggest you discard your old battle strategies and formulate new ones, if you want to be victorious and survive.


Excellent comment. Not to long ago someone crunched the numbers in Alberta and found that 92% of the covid deaths were with people with 3 or more comorbidities with an average age of 83. When they used 2 comorbidities it was 96% with an average age of 76. There is only one way we leave this world. I cannot believe how certain posters gobble up headlines and ignore statical analysis and probabilities. A baseball player , a golfer or football player tests positive with zero symptoms and in 14 days they are back playing their sports. The players yawn and carry on. I am tired of headlines and the fear mongers.


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... I would put the word "maybe as in hopefully" before your "virus will fizzle out." I agree wit the rest ... looks like we're going to have a repeat if we don't get the Delta variant tamed. The kids are gonna to be hard hit and round and round we go.


What is the number of hospitalizations for kids who tested positive for covid? .056% or something like that and the actual number of kids who were infected and were never tested is probably 5 or 6 times more[ according to Dr Scott Gotlieb]. Delta is very infectious and guess which group has the lowest vaccination rate? In fact children under 12 has zero vaccinations.


----------



## OptsyEagle

zinfit said:


> Excellent comment. Not to long ago someone crunched the numbers in Alberta and found that 92% of the covid deaths were with people with 3 or more comorbidities with an average age of 83. When they used 2 comorbidities it was 96% with an average age of 76. There is only one way we leave this world. I cannot believe how certain posters gobble up headlines and ignore statical analysis and probabilities. A baseball player , a golfer or football player tests positive with zero symptoms and in 14 days they are back playing their sports. The players yawn and carry on. I am tired of headlines and the fear mongers.


Absolutely. Although I have observed that when you do get someone to properly break down the numbers there are a few hospitalizations (single digit percent of the very few vaccinated hospitalizations) of people that they do not know if they had any co-morbidities. They almost never die, however. I have said, from the very beginning, that if the dose of infection is big enough (very long time exposure to a very concentrated source of virus) it could take down the best immune system on the planet. In other words, vaccination is not a bullet proof vest, but from what I have seen, it is close enough.

With that in mind, it is time to face the virus and if you can do it in a safe way, like short time exposures or being outdoors, there is almost no chance of a severe outcome and when it is done, you probably will then be wearing a bullet proof vest for when you encounter this thing in a more dangerous setting (Christmas dinner for example) again.

There is absolutely no way anyone on this planet will be able to avoid this virus forever so I suggest they attempt to come up with a plan on how they are going to deal with it, over the long term. The Premiers cannot protect us from it anymore. This virus is just too infectious now and the Premiers will have little ability to control the unvaccinated.


----------



## sags

The previous viruses were less harmful to young adults and children and it isn't surprising that most deaths were seniors.

The Delta variant isn't following the same path. It is highly infectious to children and young adults. They are the patients filling up hospital ICU beds.

You need to upgrade your statistics to the reality today.......not what it was a year ago with a different virus.

The State of Kentucky is so overrun at their hospitals they are calling in nurses who tested positive for Covid. That didn't happen in other waves.

There are similar stories from all over. Military teams being dispatched. Hospitals at 120% capacity and sending patients away.

The Delta virus ain't your old virus anymore.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Go back through the thread and see who was right and who wasn't.


Yeah. Definitely not people who said lockdowns will fizzle out the virus.
We are 18 months, majority of it with lockdowns. Virus didn't fizzle out.
So your statement is wrong.


----------



## damian13ster

Some B.C. businesses vow to defy province’s vaccine passport system | Globalnews.ca


Earlier this week, the BC Civil Liberties Association described the passport system as "arbitrary and illegal."




globalnews.ca


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> If you really want to know I am talking to you and all the other posters who seem to want to hide behind your masks and avoid people in some futile hope that you can actually avoid meeting this virus. When the hospitals get close to full capacity we can revisit temporary restrictions, but until then it is just delaying what needs to be done.
> 
> *The plan was simple. Protect ourselves until we develop a vaccine.* We have done that. So now, what are we waiting for? If someone gets infected and dies, that cannot be prevented because there is no more for us to do, to save them long term. To restrict citizens and businesses just to keep a person from getting infected and dying this month only to see them get infected and die next year, is certainly not worth the cost of all the restrictions. That is what I am talking about...and it probably won't even delay it that long.
> 
> I have asked quite a few times now. If anyone has a better plan, that offers anything more then a delay in us eventually facing this virus, please post it. So far no one has offered anything more then to continue with previous restrictions and covid protocols that will not work this time around. They only worked because the majority of people followed them. The majority of people followed them because they were afraid of the virus. Those people are now vaccinated and they are not afraid anymore. Those safety protocols, like masks and distancing will not work anymore, because they will not be used like they were before. The person that does not get infected by being forced to wear a mask in the Canadian Tire will simply get their infection when they meet with their friends and family on the weekend. At most it gets delayed a short time. Those covid safely protocols are not going to work this time around.
> 
> Why is this so difficult for everyone to see?


You make it sound like we can turn off the taps on spread when ICUs are full. There is a lot of inertia in rate of infection. If we wait until the ICUs are full to do anything about accelerating rate of infection, we'll be stacking bodies in trucks a month later.


----------



## andrewf

zinfit said:


> Excellent comment. Not to long ago someone crunched the numbers in Alberta and found that 92% of the covid deaths were with people with 3 or more comorbidities with an average age of 83. When they used 2 comorbidities it was 96% with an average age of 76. There is only one way we leave this world. I cannot believe how certain posters gobble up headlines and ignore statical analysis and probabilities. A baseball player , a golfer or football player tests positive with zero symptoms and in 14 days they are back playing their sports. The players yawn and carry on. I am tired of headlines and the fear mongers.


Some people are overly fixated on deaths as the only negative outcome. Younger people tend not to die, but a not insignificant percentage experience traumatic hospitalization and/or disability following infection.


----------



## damian13ster

What percentage?


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> You make it sound like we can turn off the taps on spread when ICUs are full. There is a lot of inertia in rate of infection.


Who says you have to wait until ICUs are full? Also with a good percentage vaccinated the case numbers to hospital admissions should be much lower than before.


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> What percentage?


25-35% of those infected seem to develop 'long COVID'. Many go on to recover. We don't know how many people have permanent or long term disability.









Study Puts Numbers to 'Long COVID' Duration, Prevalence


High frequency of debility lasting for months




www.medpagetoday.com


----------



## zinfit

andrewf said:


> Some people are overly fixated on deaths as the only negative outcome. Younger people tend not to die, but a not insignificant percentage experience traumatic hospitalization and/or disability following infection.


St Judes deals with many thousands of children who have life threatening cancer and there are thousands more in other facilities . It doesn't seem right but it happens. There are also thousands of kids with impaired immune system or serious allergy problems. The American Cancer Society says that one out of every 285 children will be diagnosed with cancer before they reach the age of 20.


----------



## damian13ster

andrewf said:


> 25-35% of those infected seem to develop 'long COVID'. Many go on to recover. We don't know how many people have permanent or long term disability.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Study Puts Numbers to 'Long COVID' Duration, Prevalence
> 
> 
> High frequency of debility lasting for months
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.medpagetoday.com


Yeah, I have the same thing after heart and lung inflammation from second dose.
Since then pulled a muscle 3 times and now suffering partial tear of a right hamstring.
Before that never pulled a single muscle and never had injury (other than dislocated finger I guess) my entire life.
In COVID it is your body's response to the virus that does the damage, and that was the case with me too.
Vaccine activated my immune system that destroyed me for 3 days and still has me weak and my muscles susceptible to injury over 6 weeks later.

This is slightly more than self-reported study (since I have diagnosis for partial tear of a muscle) but hardly a reliable study since self-reporting is terrible way to conduct a medical study.

Until I read the survey they had it never occurred to me that it could be caused by massive inflammation I went through


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> If I thought the unvaccinated were currently in line to get vaccinated, right now, I would be with you on all that, but you and I both know that is not the case.


I still think there are people who are unable to get fully vaccinated for medical reasons. This is a mass vaccination program, tens of millions of people. Even with a small % negative side effects, a significant number of people had a terrible time with the first shot and are (justifiably) avoiding the second shot.

There are people with serious medical conditions who cannot be vaccinated, or the vaccines won't be very effective for them. I feel like you are dismissing these vulnerable people.

This isn't as simple as "everyone rushing to their local clinic and getting the shot". When you have huge numbers of people, all kinds of tricky cases emerge. Some people cannot get vaccinated, even if they want to.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> I still think there are people who are unable to get fully vaccinated for medical reasons.


We have over 96% vaccination rates for 70+ age group here. Chances are they would have the most medical reasons for not being vaccinated ... could be wrong though.


----------



## damian13ster

Side effects seem to be much more prevalent in younger population with strong immune system.
Side effects are a result of immune system attack so it makes perfect sense.
I am not sure about allergies, but I think age contributes to them so you might be onto something here.


----------



## gibor365

Ed r seed


james4beach said:


> I still think there are people who are unable to get fully vaccinated for medical reasons. This is a mass vaccination program, tens of millions of people. Even with a small % negative side effects, a significant number of people had a terrible time with the first shot and are (justifiably) avoiding the second shot.
> 
> There are people with serious medical conditions who cannot be vaccinated, or the vaccines won't be very effective for them. I feel like you are dismissing these vulnerable people.
> 
> This isn't as simple as "everyone rushing to their local clinic and getting the shot". When you have huge numbers of people, all kinds of tricky cases emerge. Some people cannot get vaccinated, even if they want to.


And what is this %?! From what I;ve read such cases are extremely rare (even comparing to other vaccines).

Those snowflakes are so funny LOL


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> You make it sound like we can turn off the taps on spread when ICUs are full. There is a lot of inertia in rate of infection. If we wait until the ICUs are full to do anything about accelerating rate of infection, we'll be stacking bodies in trucks a month later.


So the answer is to shut down the economy when the ICUs are fairly empty. You make it sound like we can just shut down our businesses at any time we want if only to be cautious and no one pays any cost for that.

Anyway, as I said, good luck with shutting down the vaccinated. They are safe and they are done with this nonsense.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> I still think there are people who are unable to get fully vaccinated for medical reasons. This is a mass vaccination program, tens of millions of people. Even with a small % negative side effects, a significant number of people had a terrible time with the first shot and are (justifiably) avoiding the second shot.
> 
> There are people with serious medical conditions who cannot be vaccinated, or the vaccines won't be very effective for them. I feel like you are dismissing these vulnerable people.
> 
> This isn't as simple as "everyone rushing to their local clinic and getting the shot". When you have huge numbers of people, all kinds of tricky cases emerge. Some people cannot get vaccinated, even if they want to.


So you think the answer to that is that we should all hibernate and restrict business activity forever, because a few people cannot get a vaccination. Come on, be reasonable. The better answer is for those few to protect themselves even more. The even better answer then that is to let the virus run its course, inoculate the whiners who don't want to vaccinate for nonsensical reasons, providing a reduced ability for the virus to spread to these more difficult people, who desperately need that protection. That is the point of the idea I have been trying to suggest.

Anyway, this is all going to happen whether you cautious types get your way or not. The old safety protocols won't work like they did before. It is just wishful thinking now that so many are vaccinated a feeling safer. I just want to give everyone a heads up on where we are going with this pandemic so they can come up with a better plan to protect themselves.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The previous viruses were less harmful to young adults and children and it isn't surprising that most deaths were seniors.
> 
> The Delta variant isn't following the same path. It is highly infectious to children and young adults. They are the patients filling up hospital ICU beds.


And we still don't have a vaccine!
Trudeau promised us vaccine for all Canadians, instead he's running an election through the 4th wave



> The Delta virus ain't your old virus anymore.


"We" knew this at the beginning, remember back in 2020 when I said it's an open question if we'll get an effective vaccine?
Guess what, we don't have one.

Also my local health unit sent out a flyer in the mail, about how if we all get vaccinated, we can get back to normal.
What a crock. I wonder who is letting this DISINFORMATION get propagated.


----------



## Beaver101

Don't worry about the "old ways" of restrictions, etc. not working ... if we're "lucky", we''re gonna to see more or less the same increasing rates of infections, hospitalizations, ICUs entrance in this 4th wave. Only worst, will be younger patients. This is for Ontario. Can't speak of other provinces or the "unrestricted" disastrous southern US states. The latter is beyond help.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> And we still don't have a vaccine!
> Trudeau promised us vaccine for all Canadians, instead he's running an election through the 4th wave
> 
> 
> "We" knew this at the beginning, remember back in 2020 when I said it's an open question if we'll get an effective vaccine?
> Guess what, we don't have one.
> *
> Also my local health unit sent out a flyer in the mail, about how if we all get vaccinated, we can get back to normal.
> What a crock. I wonder who is letting this DISINFORMATION get propagated.*


 ... you don't need the government to tell you that. You can get it from this forum ... one member continues to say "now that we're vaccinated, get on with your life. stop the fear mongering. we're back to normal. what pandemic?"


----------



## OptsyEagle

Napoleon Bonaparte sure would have loved to have met you guys, as his adversary, on the battle field. The vaccine has made dramatic changes to how we perceive this virus and therefore how we will respond yet everyone wants to continue to keep their faith in the old battle strategies, that will not be nearly as effective anymore, yet will have the same costs, if not more.

That is all this poster is trying to tell you. Can't talk for the others.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Hate to point it out to you but the same "old battle strategies" had "holes" that would fit toes through from both of your feet. 

So how about a bit of your own "advice", give it up on telling other posters. Just as I'm waiting for the government to desist on vaccinations, restrictions, etc. Let everyone go on their own now with no limitation on their "right(s)", including the "moral" ones too. Let's see this endgame's results.


----------



## damian13ster

Alberta going to allow and support lawsuit against business owners discriminating unvaccinated.
The province also doesn't plan to share vaccination data with the feds


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Alberta going to allow and support lawsuit against business owners discriminating unvaccinated.


 ... ah, nothing better than shooting itself in the foot ... the province needs a new slogan plus a new premier.



> The province also doesn't plan to share vaccination data with the feds


 ... don't, and Albertans can remain vacationing in Alberta.


----------



## damian13ster

That is your opinion and you are entitled to it.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Yes it is and same for you.


----------



## damian13ster

I didn't share an opinion.

I shared news I heard on local news radio.
Alberta is not allowing discrimination and will support lawsuits against it


----------



## Beaver101

^ Correct. And again, you're entitled to future opinions on it despite this posting is an indication of supporting your position (same) earlier (in past multiple posts).


----------



## OptsyEagle

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Hate to point it out to you but the same "old battle strategies" had "holes" that would fit toes through from both of your feet.
> 
> So how about a bit of your own "advice", give it up on telling other posters. Just as I'm waiting for the government to desist on vaccinations, restrictions, etc. Let everyone go on their own now with no limitation on their "right(s)", including the "moral" ones too. Let's see this endgame's results.


Let me explain it again to you because you seem to think that a plan must end in some kind of perfect outcome. A plan only needs to be better then another one that will not work, as well, anymore.

So I will continue with my battle analogy because we are in a fight against a deadly enemy, although no where nearly as deadly as this enemy:

A horde of 100,000 Mongul warriors has arrived at your city, to take it by force. We currently feel safe behind our high walls. Walls that protected us well from the last enemy that came to lay siege to our city. Unfortuneately, if we look closely things have changed dramatically. These Monguls now have cannons. Those cannons will very shortly decimate our walls to rubble and quickly allow their warriors to get beyond our defenses (the large group of vaccinated people who will renew their socializing activities)...and there is absolutely nothing we can do to stop it (delta incredibly high infection rate).

While everyone still wants to live in the dream world that these walls (covid safety protocols) will continue to protect us, as they had in the past, I am attempting to give alternate suggestions. Not necessarily enjoyable suggestions, but better then futile ones. You see I have noticed a few things about these Monguls. First of all they are not all Mongolian. Which means they need foreign warriors to continue their fight. They don't know the land very well because they draw their water from the west, when water from the east is much closer. Small observations like that, but I think we might be able to treat with these warriors, if we do it quickly and strategically.

It is not the most optimum outcome but it is the only one that has any hope of success. The old battle strategies, of high walls, will not work in a world of cannon (vaccinated majority, feeling safer then before). That one event has changed the rules of engagement forever. We must change as well if we want to survive in it.

That is all I am saying.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> ... It is not the most optimum outcome but it is the only one that has any hope of success. *The old battle strategies, of high walls, will not work in a world of cannon (vaccinated majority, feeling safer then before)*. That one event has changed the rules of engagement forever. We must change as well if we want to survive in it.
> 
> *That is all I am saying.*


 ... just read the preceding paragraph only and your last statement. Then "your expertise" should be able to explain the needs for this:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/why-hawai...ton-on-travel-is-turning-heads-202929912.html



> Some on the island, including billionaire Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, have criticized the restrictions for not going far enough. But for a state that suffered the largest spike in unemployment as its tourist-dependent economy saw a nearly 100% reduction in travel, the latest wave has become particularly complicated as small business owners were just starting to recover. ... + Twitter list (copied as text here):
> 
> _
> 
> 
> 
> Demand @GovHawaii @DrJoshGreen @LtGovJoshGreen immediately:
> 1.reinstate all travel controls
> 2.increase community testing
> 3.scale contact tracing
> 4.enforce masks
> 5.accelerate vaccinations
> 6.protect students & teachers
> 7.reduce gathering size
> 8.accept Kuleana
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> _


 ... items 1 to 4 + 7 sure sounds like tools from the"old" strategy. And if you have some new tools or strategy, please do share with us because I haven't heard or read any from the real world virologists/epidemiologists.


----------



## sags

Stop it Beaver......you are making too much sense.


----------



## OptsyEagle

> 1.reinstate all travel controls
> 2.increase community testing
> 3.scale contact tracing
> 4.enforce masks
> 5.accelerate vaccinations
> 6.protect students & teachers
> 7.reduce gathering size
> 8.accept Kuleana


I was under the impression that the citizens would need to co-operate with most of that. When you get 100% of our citizens to vaccinate and you get the ones who have vaccinated to stop meeting with their friends and family, even though it is much safer for them to do so now...then you might finally make some sense.

Until then you are both just dreaming.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I will try one more time to explain this problem. Not for Sags or Beav, but for anyone who might be interested but a little confused because I agree the change in the dynamics of this pandemic may not be obvious yet.

This analogy might be better then the mongol one. Who knows.

You are part of the crew of an ocean travelling ship. It is raining out AND you just hit an iceberg, that put a 1 foot hole in the hull. You cannot stem this water flow. The boat is going to be overwhelmed. You come to me with a study that proves that if you seal the windows and batten down the hatches you can keep out all of the rain water and suggest everyone go to work on that.

From the above, it is not that battening down the hatches will not work but I think anyone can see that keeping out that rainwater will add very little in helping with the overall problem. In our pandemic the sealing of the hatches (keeping the rainwater out) is the same as wearing masks during short visits to retail stores or going to the bank, etc. The hole in the hull would be the equivalent of our vaccinated citizens socializing more because they feel safer and have a major pent up demand. That is the big hole in our pandemic fight and no mask, no restrictions, no business closures or limitations, are going to stop it. No one is denying masks do not prevent infections, I am just denying that they will help us now like they did in the past.

Even before vaccination, *a mask really only prevented moderate infections anyway when used for short duration visits*, like what happens when you go into many retails stores or other businesses. With vaccination, a mask will, at best, be preventing only mild or asymptomatic infections, again because not only is the time exposure short for these visits , but you are now vaccinated as well. Wearing masks outside is really lunacy to the highest order. It is almost all downside for the healthy person. Those types of infections (outdoors or short time indoors) do not send people to the hospital. Almost everyone vaccinated and unvaccinated *tend to recover from them and when that happens you should have a much stronger immune system, for the future* ... when you do find yourself on board a ship with a big hole in the hull (indoors with friends and family and I doubt you will be wearing a mask).


----------



## like_to_retire

OptsyEagle said:


> Wearing masks outside is really lunacy to the highest order.


Always appreciate your common sense posts. Thanks for that.

Anyway, when I go out for my bicycle ride each day, and I pass through my neighborhood, I often encounter people cutting their lawn, all alone, with no one around, wearing a mask. What's that all about?

Then, as I traverse all the bicycle trails on my ride, there are about 10% of the riders that have a mask on. That must be pretty annoying for them, as you breath quite heavily on a bike. What's that all about?

ltr


----------



## cainvest

like_to_retire said:


> Anyway, when I go out for my bicycle ride each day, and I pass through my neighborhood, I often encounter people cutting their lawn, all alone, with no one around, wearing a mask. What's that all about?
> 
> Then, as I traverse all the bicycle trails on my ride, there are about 10% of the riders that have a mask on. That must be pretty annoying for them, as you breath quite heavily on a bike. What's that all about?


I see some of that as well on my daily bicycle rides. 

I can't recall a active cyclist wearing a mask but a guy was cutting his lawn yesterday with a mask on. 
My best guesses would be ... 


are overly scared of the virus and/or ill-informed about the risks
realized wearing a mask helps with their allergies
their better half made them wear it
part of a lawn company that requires them to wear one


----------



## gibor365

like_to_retire said:


> Always appreciate your common sense posts. Thanks for that.
> 
> Anyway, when I go out for my bicycle ride each day, and I pass through my neighborhood, I often encounter people cutting their lawn, all alone, with no one around, wearing a mask. What's that all about?
> 
> Then, as I traverse all the bicycle trails on my ride, there are about 10% of the riders that have a mask on. That must be pretty annoying for them, as you breath quite heavily on a bike. What's that all about?
> 
> ltr


I never understood it! Same here, where I’m riding my bike! I even saw Chinese guy fishing on the boat alon and ... wears mask 🤣 We have new kind of phobia now! Coronaphobia!


----------



## sags

Manitoba announced new restrictions. Didn't they just open up ?

Any place that removed restrictions are getting their butt kicked hard now.

ER doctor in Mississippi asks......what do we do with all these people who have been on ventilators for weeks and aren't getting any better ?

It looks like "pulling the plug" discussions are being created by covid.

Hospital stays for covid are stretching out longer and longer and the healthcare costs keep rising.

Some health insurers are demanding higher premiums from those not vaccinated due to higher liability and costs.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Manitoba announced new restrictions. Didn't they just open up ?
> 
> Any place that removed restrictions are getting their butt kicked now.


MB did open up about a month ago but our numbers are still low.

They did just drop the hammer creating a segregated society (vaxed / non-vaxed) for many activities.


----------



## sags

A teacher had 22 students, wasn't vaccinated and pulled down her mask to read briefly to the students.

12 of the students got covid from her, including everyone in the closest two rows of students.

This was last May......before the Delta variant. Do we really want our schools open ?


----------



## sags

A tour of a hospital with un-vaccinated patients and all but one said they wish they had been vaccinated.

The one is sick and has been on some IV immune boost therapy. She likely will survive, but some of the others have been in hospital for weeks and aren't getting any better.

I wonder.......given these are hospitals in poor States, how many have any health insurance and those that do likely have whatever cheap insurance an employer would give them.

A healthcare package from Walmart or fast food companies isn't all that great. Likely not even close to covering the cost of weeks in the hospital.


----------



## andrewf

like_to_retire said:


> Always appreciate your common sense posts. Thanks for that.
> 
> Anyway, when I go out for my bicycle ride each day, and I pass through my neighborhood, I often encounter people cutting their lawn, all alone, with no one around, wearing a mask. What's that all about?
> 
> Then, as I traverse all the bicycle trails on my ride, there are about 10% of the riders that have a mask on. That must be pretty annoying for them, as you breath quite heavily on a bike. What's that all about?
> 
> ltr


Only time I can see wearing a mask for long periods outside making sense is maybe a busy sidewalk or crowded event. I don't wear a mask outdoors. I might put it on for queuing to enter an indoor space but that is just convenience. I sometimes drive from one indoor place to another and just leave the mask on even though I am alone in a car. I don't find masks to be a big deal. I actually kind of life them in the winter as it keeps your face warm.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... you don't need the government to tell you that. You can get it from this forum ... one member continues to say "now that we're vaccinated, get on with your life. stop the fear mongering. we're back to normal. what pandemic?"


Big difference between some anonymous guy on some forum pushing COVID disinformation and The Prime Minister of Canada doing so.
There is a reason he's falling in the polls.


----------



## james4beach

BC published some stats on hospitalizations by vaccination status.

Adjusted for population, hospitalizations in BC:
Unvaccinated: 5.97 per 100k
Partial vaccination: 1.59 per 100k
Fully vaccinated: 0.45 per 100k

The data represented this way is a bit awkward, but it's pretty clear that very few hospitalizations are fully vaccinated people


----------



## andrewf

Consistent with what we're seeing elsewhere. Not adjusting for age/health, unvaxxed are 10x likelier to land in hospital. Of course, they tend to be younger/healthier so adjusting for that perhaps it is 20x risk. But because we are at a high vax rate even that lower risk has a decent number of people in hospital.


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> ... ah, nothing better than shooting itself in the foot ... the province needs a new slogan plus a new premier.
> 
> ... don't, and Albertans can remain vacationing in Alberta.


 ... ‘We’re the worst, again’ — Exhausted Alberta doctors raise COVID alarm as cases spike and hospitals feel pressure 

Do I hear the words of "lockdowns", "restrictions" soon? Don't forget, doctors, healthcare workers are not robots and need to eat, sleep and sh1t too.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> I never understood it! Same here, where I’m riding my bike! I even saw Chinese guy fishing on the boat alon and ... wears mask 🤣 We have new kind of phobia now! Coronaphobia!


 ... was the China-man bothering you? Closet Racist.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> I was under the impression that the citizens would need to co-operate with most of that.  *When you get 100% of our citizens to vaccinate and you get the ones who have vaccinated to stop meeting with their friends and family, even though it is much safer for them to do so now...then you might finally make some sense.*
> 
> Until then you are both just dreaming.


 ... dreaming is definitely better than your hallucinations. Just read your own statement (bolded above), why would vaccinated citizens will stop meeting with friends and families? Just because you say so as the forum's virology expert, with your hypothetical thesis-like posts? You sure got your money's worth at that night class, studying the theory of virology according to OE. Btw, you still haven't answered the question: have you gone mask-less when required? If not, then stop BSing about those who choose to wear masks are lunatics. And don't go into cardiac-arrest on hearing kids below 12 have to wear masks at school this coming fall.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I always explain where I get my theories from. No one is forced to agree with me and Beav, I certainly do not expect you to. I do appreciate debate on any of my posts because theories work best when they get adjusted or reaffirmed by any new information that comes forward.

You may have noticed that if all you do is wait for the experts and scientists to guide you through all this, it becomes a very long wait while they argue and disagree with each other on just about everything. I just find it a lot easier to zero in on the very important stuff and exclude 99% of the garbage that is out there. The only way that can happen is if you develop theories, on how all this works yourself, so that when you see differing information, you can quickly review it and either update your theory or dismiss the information quickly and not get distracted for too long.

For the life of me I have no idea how all the other people out there cope with all this, without coming up with some kind of theory on why things are happening the way they are today, and more importantly, a reasonable prediction on where it is going to be tomorrow and into the future ... and the affect that will have on them personally.

It must be quite confusing. I can see why many seem to have given up.


----------



## sags

I have a theory.

The virus is bad and people should run away and hide. 

They didn't hide long enough before and now we need to hide until it is gone.

The end.


----------



## damian13ster

Go and hide then if you want. Not a single person is preventing you from doing that. It is your free choice


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> I have a theory.
> 
> The virus is bad and people should run away and hide.
> 
> They didn't hide long enough before and now we need to hide until it is gone.
> 
> The end.


I doubt anyone needs me to see the flaws in that theory.


----------



## damian13ster

"The Victorian Agency for Health Information has revealed an average of 342 children suffering mental health issues have been presented to emergency departments each week.

According to the report, the worst cases — where teens required resuscitation and emergency treatment — surged in May to 37.3 per week for six weeks straight. The daunting figures mark an 83 per cent rise on similar cases in the previous year, and a 162 per cent increase on 2019.

The 16-page report revealed an average of 156 teens a week were rushed to hospital after self-harming and suffering suicidal ideation, marking an 88 per cent increase on last year.

The new data followed a June report from Kids Helpline, detailing the disturbing spike after Victoria was plunged into its fourth major Covid-19 lockdown in the past 12 months.

“These numbers are unequivocally awful,” an anonymous child psychiatrist said via the _Weekend Australian_. “They show increased demand and they show no increase in services because services were already at capacity. Our units are completely overrun.

“This surge is even bigger than I would have guessed. To see it measured so starkly and compare that to the policy and the response from the department overall, it is pretty shocking.

“It’s one thing if the right people don’t know about this stuff, but there has been a month-on-month demonstration about how much worse things have got over 18 months.”


Those numbers are for a state of 6.6 million.
Far exceed any youth COVID hospitalizations. And it is not even close
Hey, but maybe like someone here suggested, youth in Australia is just getting better at self-harm and mental issues aren't actually increasing because of lockdowns.........
If you want to decrease the load on kids' hospitals - stop the lockdowns


----------



## sags

OptsyEagle said:


> I doubt anyone needs me to see the flaws in that theory.


What flaws ?

It is the basic theory that has worked, while nothing else has.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> What flaws ?
> 
> It is the basic theory that has worked, while nothing else has.


And where did it work?


----------



## sags

It worked everywhere implemented and that is why all these countries are returning to it again.

All that has happened in the past year is to play ring around the rosey and we all fell down.

We have circled back to the beginning and some want to keep circling and circling and circling.

Maybe they don't realize they are circling the drain.

The vaccines bought us some time, but some people are determined to waste that time allowing the virus to spread and mutate into a more dangerous form.

Stupid is as stupid does.


----------



## damian13ster

It hasn;t worked anywhere in the world. 18 months in. The virus isn't fizzled out.
Lockdowns are single worst and most damaging way to return back to normal.
Sydney and Melbourne are just about to pass Toronto for the longest lockdowns in the world, and they are dealing with huge outbreaks at this very moment.

Maybe it would have been logical if we were waiting for a vaccine, but since over 80% vaccination rates don't stop the virus then what exactly would we be waiting for?


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> What flaws ?
> 
> It is the basic theory that has worked, while nothing else has.


Seriously? You were serious with that comment? How does everyone run and hide at the same time? I know a retired guy like yourself perhaps thinks that the food you eat, magically shows up in your cupboards and your next car you need magically shows up in your driveway, but that is not how all that actually happens.

We can't just run and hide. I asked Matt how much time he thought we had so someone else could invent a miracle vaccine. I didn't bother adding to that time, the time it would take to vaccinate everyone with it, but now you seem to think that if we all shutter in our homes, that this virus will just disappear on its own, is farcical. This virus is rampant all over the bloody world. We will all be gone long before this virus would be, especially if we all ran away and hide from it.

Anyway, it is our planet. We will take it back. Trust me. You will be safe soon and the world is going to be OK.


----------



## sags

I have little faith in blind assurances. All previous assurances have been wrong.

The virus doesn't care what people want. It doesn't care if people are bored and tired of it.

Maybe it would help if you sent a sternly worded letter to the virus telling it to leave, but I doubt it.

The virus will do what viruses do


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The virus doesn't care what people want. It doesn't care if people are bored and tired of it.
> 
> The virus will do what viruses do.


Finally we agree on something. Everything above is correct.

Listen. The delta variant is one of the most infectious viruses humans have ever seen. The only reason we are not seeing a nightmare scenario play out, so far, is for two reasons.

The first is that it came to our shores just as the warm weather was upon us. It has now become dominant. Rest assured whatever infection numbers you are seeing on the daily reports, they are significantly underestimating the truer picture of the spread of this virus, in Canada. The reason, those other infections are not showing up, on those daily reports, is because most are the safer mild infections I have been talking to you about. Most of our socializing, right now, is mainly outdoors, but that is about to change very, very soon.

The other reason we have not seen a major spike in infections, leading to the more visual hospitalization infections, is because a larger percentage of our population is becoming vaccinated every day. That has helped and will help us considerably, in the fall and winter, but there are still wayyy too many unvaccinated. Vaccine passports should move more of them into the vaccination line but again, I remind everyone that we have maybe 5 more weeks of warm weather before the great white north starts to get cold again and we all go inside to mingle.

When we go indoors, the severity of this virus is going to wake everyone up to take notice. There is not much you can do about it, other then get vaccinated right now, if you have not already. A few other things would be to identify the dangerous situations for what they are and of course take advantage of the safer situations to hopefully booster up your personal immunity protection.

That is how I see it. I will see you all on the other side of winter because it is my estimate that the pandemic should be mostly over by then, but we are going to require 1 more full measure out of our health care system and all people on this planet. Good luck to everyone.


----------



## gibor365

damian13ster said:


> *It hasn;t worked anywhere in the world. 18 months in.* The virus isn't fizzled out.
> Lockdowns are single worst and most damaging way to return back to normal.
> Sydney and Melbourne are just about to pass Toronto for the longest lockdowns in the world, and they are dealing with huge outbreaks at this very moment.
> 
> Maybe it would have been logical if we were waiting for a vaccine, but since over 80% vaccination rates don't stop the virus then what exactly would we be waiting for?


Exactly! Just checked Australia and New Zealand stats..... They are breaking All records by daily new cases, despite the most draconian measures


----------



## sags

Imagine what it would look like with no restrictions.


----------



## damian13ster

Well, your claim that the virus will fizzle away is pure bullshit - that we do know
We don't know what would happen with no restrictions.
We know that lockdowns don't help in getting back to normal and they don't make virus 'fizzle away'. 18 months!!


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Well, your claim that the virus will fizzle away is pure bullshit - that we do know


 ... if you apply abit of common sense, the virus will fizzle away when the "transmission" breaks. You can ask OE, the forum's virologist on his take as to how pandemics end? The virus(es) will always be amongst us. They were likely here before we=mankind were.


> We don't know what would happen with no restrictions.


 ... so are we going to be ending up in utopia with no restrictions then? Do you want to try this "no-restrictions" exercise of yours? Look at Florida, close to no restrictions whatsoever. They even have a mask-ban mandate and now its clever governor wants to ban vaccines. [Btw, their courts struck down that mask-ban mandate. I can guess the judges don't want to live like its maverick governor, flapping his lips in his homeoffice mansion.]


> We know that lockdowns don't help in getting back to normal and they don't make virus 'fizzle away'. 18 months!!


 ... aren't you asking abit much with the "lockdowns don't help in getting back to normal" or stretching your "whiney wants" abit much there? Do you think "everyone of us" are enjoying the "lockdowns", restrictions, masking, need to get vaccines/boosters, etc. or that "we, like everyone else" don't want to get back to pre-pandemic activities? And that you're the only person suffering ... for the past 18 months? Don't be surprised we might not get back to the "normal" for another year ... or 2 ... you could be whining until your hair turn white.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Exactly! Just checked Australia and New Zealand stats..... They are breaking All records by daily new cases, despite the most draconian measures


 ... suggest you look at your beloved country's stats (record deaths) and see the next steps ... no restrictions? OK.


----------



## damian13ster

I believe there is plenty of people enjoying the lockdowns.
Those in power for starters managed to grab a much tighter control over their countries through undemocratic means
Authoritarians are salivating looking at human rights erosion
People who can afford lockdowns/work from home are loving the moral superiority while neglecting those who aren't in such priviledged position.
The 1% is absolutely loving the massive wealth transfer from the poor to the rich
There is a large group of priviledged that is benefiting through this situation and they are the ones who selfishly want to keep it going while screwing over the rest of society - nothing new here.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> I believe there is plenty of people enjoying the lockdowns.
> Those in power for starters managed to grab a much tighter control over their countries through undemocratic means
> Authoritarians are salivating looking at human rights erosion
> People who can afford lockdowns/work from home are loving the moral superiority while neglecting those who aren't in such priviledged position.
> The 1% is absolutely loving the massive wealth transfer from the poor to the rich


 ... OK. So where would you like to move to then? USA? UK? Switzerland? Australia? ... and then there're just as rich countries like Russia, China ... have your pick.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... if you apply abit of common sense, the virus will fizzle away when the "transmission" breaks. You can ask OE, the forum's virologist on his take as to how pandemics end? The virus(es) will always be amongst us. They were likely here before we=mankind were.
> ... so are we going to be ending up in utopia with no restrictions then? Do you want to try this "no-restrictions" exercise of yours? Look at Florida, close to no restrictions whatsoever. They even have a mask-ban mandate and now its clever governor wants to ban vaccines. [Btw, their courts struck down that mask-ban mandate. I can guess the judges don't want to live like its maverick governor, flapping his lips in his homeoffice mansion.]
> ... aren't you asking abit much with the "lockdowns don't help in getting back to normal" or stretching your "whiney wants" abit much there? Do you think "everyone of us" are enjoying the "lockdowns", restrictions, masking, need to get vaccines/boosters, etc. or that "we, like everyone else" don't want to get back to pre-pandemic activities? And that you're the only person suffering ... for the past 18 months? Don't be surprised we might not get back to the "normal" for another year ... or 2 ... you could be whining until your hair turn white.


Common sense says that if something doesn't work for 18 months, then you don't do it for the 19th month


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Common sense says that if something doesn't work for 18 months, then you don't do it for the 19th month


 ... who is to set the "timeline" for what works? You? You should run for government - any positions.

Or better yet get yourself a job on the Science Advisory Table, the ICU unit or some position where you can tell the public "we're the pros and our main job is to lie to you".

Btw, I'm still waiting for the answer as to which country that you would like to move to - "with no restrictions" since Canada ain't good enough for you, atm. It doesn't have to be permanent, you can always move back. Don't want to infringe on your rights.


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> Common sense says that if something doesn't work for 18 months, then you don't do it for the 19th month


Does that apply to letting the virus do its worst, like the strategy Florida is employing? Miami is asking people to conserve water and may impose a boil water advisory, because the liquid oxygen they use for sanitizing drinking water is being diverted to hospitals.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Common sense says that if something doesn't work for 18 months, then you don't do it for the 19th month


Is that why you dropped out of school? You didn't graduate in 18 months, so clearly it wasn't going to work?
Some things just take time.


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> ... who is to set the "timeline" for what works? You? You should run for government - any positions.
> 
> Or better yet get yourself a job on the Science Advisory Table, the ICU unit or some position where you can tell the public "we're the pros and our main job is to lie to you".
> 
> Btw, I'm still waiting for the answer as to which country that you would like to move to - "with no restrictions" since Canada ain't good enough for you, atm. It doesn't have to be permanent, you can always move back. Don't want to infringe on your rights.


 ... found one country for you which fits into your 18 months "back to normal" criteria:

A year and a half after Sweden decided not to lock down, its COVID-19 death rate is up to 10 times higher than its neighbors


> ...
> "We live in highly interrelated world," Farina said. "If something major strikes, it's going to be affecting everyone everywhere, irrespective of the national measures that you take."


 ... this part in the article summarizes this "global pandemic" spot on.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Is that why you dropped out of school? You didn't graduate in 18 months, so clearly it wasn't going to work?
> Some things just take time.


No. There was progress seen after 18 months. There is no progress here. No one has a plan on how to get out of this


----------



## sags

The plan is to vaccinate, give booster shots, mask, social distance and retain restrictions until the virus fizzles out.

It might take a few months, or a few years.......makes no difference. The virus controls the timetable.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... found one country for you which fits into your 18 months "back to normal" criteria:
> 
> A year and a half after Sweden decided not to lock down, its COVID-19 death rate is up to 10 times higher than its neighbors
> ... this part in the article summarizes this "global pandemic" spot on.


Everyone likes to use that example, yet completely ignore what's under the hood.
Sweden messed up.
Did they mess up by deciding not to lock down? No!!
They messed up by not providing enough protection for long term homes.
Compare deaths from long term care homes vs in general populace in Sweden and other countries.
Then you will have an idea of what is going on. 

Not one person is arguing that better protection for long term care facility and seniors is needed. 
Lockdowns on general populace are not


----------



## OptsyEagle

The Lancet just published a study looking at over 43,000 people in the UK infected with either the Delta variant or Alpha variant and found the following, *pertaining to the unvaccinated:*



> *Risk of hospital admission was twice as high for individuals diagnosed with the Delta variant,* compared to those with Alpha, after adjusting for differences such as age, sex and ethnicity.











Covid: Delta variant patients twice as likely to need hospital care


Get double-jabbed to reduce this risk, advise experts who have studied different variants of the virus.



www.bbc.com




So, as I said above. This new virus is a nasty one. Obviously more people still survive it then succumb but when you factor in about a 5 times infectious rate and multiply that by around 2.25 times increase in hospitalization rates, compared to the older variants, you can start to see that even though Canada has a lower number of unvaccinated people, then most countries, we may still be looking at some heart wrenching situations this fall/winter. So be careful.

It appears *the risk of hospitalizations are not significantly increased between the two variants for the fully vaccinated* and the vaccinated should help considerably to decrease the number of infections for everyone, but you still want to be careful out there if you find yourself indoors for any extended period of time (many hours).


----------



## sags

India begins locks downs as new cases surge to 40,000 a day.









India asks two states to consider night curfews amid COVID spike


Kerala and Maharashtra asked to consider the curbs as country reports over 40,000 new infections for two days in a row.




www.aljazeera.com


----------



## sags

Ontario cases surge to 740........over 700 per day for 3 days running.

Premier Doug Ford and Health Minister perform their usual vanishing act.









Ontario reports more than 700 COVID-19 cases for 3rd straight day, 2 additional deaths | Globalnews.ca


In Ontario, 82.8 per cent of people aged 12-plus have received at least one vaccine dose and 76 per cent are fully vaccinated.




globalnews.ca


----------



## sags

Alberta surges with over 1,000 cases a day for 3 days in a row.

Premier Kenney goes on vacation and the Health Minister Dr. Deena Hinshaw doesn't provide updates anymore.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-coronavirus-aug-29-1.6157435


----------



## sags

By any measure, the virus is winning the war. We need to implement the only strategy that works.......restrictions and lock downs.

The scientists need us to provide the time to come up with something better than we have.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Alberta surges with over 1,000 cases a day for 3 days in a row.
> 
> Premier Kenney goes on vacation and the Health Minister Dr. Deena Hinshaw doesn't provide updates anymore.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-coronavirus-aug-29-1.6157435


They are learning from Federal government.
PM not worrying about it and doing cross-country restriction breaking tour.
PHAC instructed not to give updates during the campaign.

Alberta made a mistake of not following up their plan with not reporting cases starting Aug 16 and focusing on hospitalizations. Idiotic decision that is biting them in the *** as people are focusing on wrong metrics


----------



## OptsyEagle

Most of those infections so far seem to be fairly mild, with a few exceptions of course, but it will get a lot worse soon as our weather get cooler. I just can't calculate how worse, since there are a lot of variables to deal with, especially considering the large number vaccinated citizens.

*I have been watching this Delta variant and it acts in a different way then the other variants*, probably due to its high infection rate and what makes it so infectious. This variant not only creates a larger number of dangerous infections (see my article on hospitalizations above) but it actually seems to create an even larger number of milder, safer infections, then the other variants did.

India is a perfect example of what I am talking about. We saw the carnage the Delta variant unleashed on that country starting last April. Many people died, their hospitals were overwhelmed, etc. But what many may not know is that a study was done, last July, that showed that 2/3rd of the country (850 million people) were tested to have covid-19 antibodies, when only 14% of the country had been vaccinated, at that time. Obviously these people were infected and recovered but most of those infections were so mild they did not show up in the records. If one were to calculate out a true case fatality rate it would be something like 0.05%...from the most dangerous variant so far. What gives?

So, at that time, I asked myself:
*How can a virus mutate to the point that its infections can actually become both: more dangerous AND more safe?*

So I pondered that question and this is what I think is happening with this new variant:
So for example

You have 2 circles. In the first one you put a sick person with *Alpha Covid-19* and in the other circle is a person with the exact same viral load of *Delta* *Covid-19.*

You have 15 people, currently not infected, all the same age and health status, standing around each circle. The 1st person is 2 feet away from the infected person in the middle, the 2nd is 4 feet away, the 3rd is 6 feet away, etc, etc. with the last person being 30 feet away form the infected source.

They all stand there for the same amount of time exposure, breathing in the airborne virus for lets say 30 minutes. Again, this is just an illustration.

What I think you will see, is that all 15 people get infected by the Delta variant and only the closest 3 get infected by the Alpha. So 5 times the infection rate. Now for hospitalizations. What you have is the 1st guy in the Alpha goes to the hospital, the next guy recovers at home and the 3rd one is asymptomatic.

Now with the Delta group, the 1st 2 go to the hospital, the next 6 feel sick but recover at home, and the last 7 are asymptomatic. Infected but not overly sick. So although hospitalizations are 2 times higher and infections are 5 times higher, the asymptomatic results are actually 7 times higher, with the Delta variant. *More safer infections are created by the Delta, then what were created by the previous variants, *even though it is a much more dangerous virus.

Obviously the issue is figuring out where the infections of each group (dangerous compared to safe) are actually coming from. I can only guess at it, but for safer, outside and short time indoors, would probably be my best guess from what I have learned about this virus. It probably does not matter if we ever figure it out or not, only that it happens and should continue to happen. As I said, I am starting to think that the* Delta variant is truly a pandemic ender.* At least that would be something positive taken from a bad mutation.

Sorry for the long post. It is not something that can be explained in one or two sentences.


----------



## sags

Most Covid deaths in India were likely never reported because people never made it to a hospital for treatment.

There was no oxygen and people were dying all over the place. They were burning so many corpses they ran out of firewood.

I wouldn't take any of the statistics from India seriously. Did you not see the videos from India ?


----------



## damian13ster

Oh yeah, youtube is dependable source of information. Second best only to anecdotes!
Sure beats official statistics!


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Most Covid deaths in India were likely never reported because people never made it to a hospital for treatment.
> 
> There was no oxygen and people were dying all over the place. They were burning so many corpses they ran out of firewood.
> 
> I wouldn't take any of the statistics from India seriously. Did you not see the videos from India ?


1% of 850 million infections would be 8.5 million deaths, if the old case fatality rate was present. I am pretty sure someone would have noticed that many extra dead people, even in India. Right now they have only recorded a little over 400,000 deaths.

What I am trying to explain is why some scientists have been calling the Delta variant more infectious but less virulent and other scientists called it more infectious and more virulent. It turns out that it is probably both, depending on your measurement of virulent.

My main point is two fold. One, it is going to spread through Canada like wildfire and two, most people are going to be OK. Of course due to the large number of infections, over a very short period of time, we may have some issues with our hospitals, this fall/winter, but it should be the last time. We certainly have a lot larger percentage of our population vaccinated, then India did, which has been proven to take the teeth out of the dangerous infections quite well, leaving mostly the larger number of safer ones to help put an end to the pandemic, once and for all.


----------



## zinfit

andrewf said:


> Only time I can see wearing a mask for long periods outside making sense is maybe a busy sidewalk or crowded event. I don't wear a mask outdoors. I might put it on for queuing to enter an indoor space but that is just convenience. I sometimes drive from one indoor place to another and just leave the mask on even though I am alone in a car. I don't find masks to be a big deal. I actually kind of life them in the winter as it keeps your face warm.
> [/QUOTE





damian13ster said:


> Go and hide then if you want. Not a single person is preventing you from doing that. It is your free choice


exactly my thoughts. Find a cave and stay away from a computer.


----------



## sags

Should people with heart attacks or strokes stay home ? What about people who need surgeries or cancer treatment ?

Better to tell the infected anti-vaxxers to stay home and not clog up the hospitals. Maybe that is necessary.

Tell people if you aren't vaccinated you won't be treated.


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Should people with heart attacks or strokes stay home ? What about people who need surgeries or cancer treatment ?
> 
> Better to tell the infected anti-vaxxers to stay home and not clog up the hospitals. Maybe that is necessary.
> 
> Tell people if you aren't vaccinated you won't be treated.


smokers should be denied cancer treatment?


----------



## damian13ster

Australia gave up on 'zero COVID' policy. They deemed it impossible.
New plan:
70% vaccination rate - vast majority of restrictions gone
80% vaccination rate - all restrictions gone.

September 10 Denmark drops all restrictions. No passports, identification cards, nothing.
They decided to do that after reaching 70% vaccination rate.


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> Australia gave up on 'zero COVID' policy. They deemed it impossible.
> New plan:
> 70% vaccination rate - vast majority of restrictions gone
> 80% vaccination rate - all restrictions gone.


They say that now. We said the same thing. Why do you believe Australian authorities implicitly?


----------



## damian13ster

I don't. This is their conclusion so far based on their experience and other countries. Whether they are lying like politicians in Canada did - I don't know.
At least with Denmark we will fin out in 12 days if they told the truth or not


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> They say that now. We said the same thing. Why do you believe Australian authorities implicitly?


Because our government said, but even after we reached their threshold numbers, nothing really changed... as they said “we put breaks” . And regarding Australia or Denmark we will see. In any case shag Denmark is planning to do , wasn’t even in Canada plans.


----------



## gibor365

European Airlines Urge Canada to Lift COVID-19 Travel Restrictions - SchengenVisaInfo.com


European executives of nearly dozens of European airports and airlines have sent a joint letter to Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet’s ministers, urging them to lift travel restrictions imposed due to Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), in order to restore safe international...



www.schengenvisainfo.com


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> Australia gave up on 'zero COVID' policy. They deemed it impossible.
> New plan:
> 70% vaccination rate - vast majority of restrictions gone
> 80% vaccination rate - all restrictions gone.
> 
> September 10 Denmark drops all restrictions. No passports, identification cards, nothing.
> They decided to do that after reaching 70% vaccination rate.


If you don't have some covid, in your society, people will not vaccinate nearly to the levels you need and therefore you will always have covid in your society.

This relationship works similar with covid restrictions and safety protocols. The more safe you make the unvaccinated feel the more they hang on to their nonsensical reasons to not vaccinate. You are effectively taking away one of the main reasons for them to vaccinate...to protect themselves. We did too good of job of that and Australia did an even better one.

Anyway, no one is going to stop this Delta virus. It is just way to infectious for our old methods to beat it. We must vaccinate as many as we can and let the virus beat itself as we get exposed to it, very quickly it appears.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> No. There was progress seen after 18 months. There is no progress here. No one has a plan on how to get out of this


There is a lot of progress here.
I have a plan, not that anyone cares.

There isn't much "getting out of this", we have to keep slogging away for a few months.
I actually think we got really lucky by getting some pretty effective vaccines for part of the population.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> If you don't have some covid, in your society, people will not vaccinate nearly to the levels you need and therefore you will always have covid in your society.
> 
> This relationship works similar with covid restrictions and safety protocols. The more safe you make the unvaccinated feel the more they hang on to their nonsensical reasons to not vaccinate. You are effectively taking away one of the main reasons for them to vaccinate...to protect themselves. We did too good of job of that and Australia did an even better one.


Yeah, it's a double edged sword.
If the risk of getting COVID is high, then it makes sense to take the vaccine.
However if the risk of getting COVID is low, then it doesn't make sense to take the vaccine.




> Anyway, no one is going to stop this Delta virus. It is just way to infectious for our old methods to beat it. We must vaccinate as many as we can and let the virus beat itself as we get exposed to it, very quickly it appears.


I think slowing it down, getting a better vaccine, hopefully keep the economy going and the hospitals from collapsing is a good path forward.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> I think slowing it down, getting a better vaccine, hopefully keep the economy going and the hospitals from collapsing is a good path forward.


Good luck with that. I have posted quite a few times, although I agree for some reason I am not getting much agreement, but *the vaccine changed everything in our fight to slow this down. * Before we had what I would call a small leak in the boat. A few groups of people not following the rules keeping the virus going. We also had a more restricted water flow via a less infectious virus.

The vaccine has changed all that. It has significantly taken the teeth out of this virus, enough to make the majority of our vaccinated citizens feel safe to resume a little, and with some a lot, of their social life, that they left behind in the last 18 months. *That is the massive hole now in our boats,* combined with a more faster moving water flow (high infection rate of the Delta variant) and you pretty much have no way of keeping your personal boat from sinking.

The only option you now have is your life jacket. With Covid-19 your life jacket is your personal immune system, and of course what you actually do personally to protect yourself. If your personal protection also includes having any school age children in your life, or you go to any social gatherings, inside or outside, then you have no life jacket from personal behavior. The only life jacket that most of us have anymore, is our vaccinated immune system and soon that will be bolstered by various real life exposures to Covid-19 and that should protect us enough.

There is no more time. If you try to stay on your boat you will simply go down with it. That should be obvious to everyone by now. Just look around and give it a little more thought and you should be able to see what I am talking about.


----------



## sags

A new variant has been discovered in South Africa that is spreading rapidly. It has already spread to 8 countries.

It is more infectious and scientists believe it has the ability to evade the immune system even if vaccinated.

This particular variant is of concern because it has multiplel mutations and is already spreading rapidly. Scientists fear it may become the dominant virus.









C.1.2, New Covid Variant Found in 8 Countries, Likely to be More Infectious, Evade Vaccine Protection: Study


Virologist Upasana Ray noted that the variant is a result of numerous mutations accumulated in C.1.2 line in the spike protein, which makes it a lot different than the original virus that was identified in Wuhan, China in 2019.




www.india.com


----------



## damian13ster

Well duh.
Viruses mutate to increase transmission. That's common knowledge and common sense.
If a variant has lower transmission rate it never grabs hold.
Higher transmission can be a good thing if the severity of infection is lower. That's ideal scenario.
Need to wait to find out severity of it


----------



## sags

Mutations are normal and no big deal.......is what some said about the Delta variant.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Mutations are normal and no big deal.......is what some said about the Delta variant.


And they were right:










The 4th wave is relatively insignificant so far. Almost need a magnifying glass to see it.
Of course it might change, but there is few indications it will


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## OptsyEagle

So far all they are telling us is that they know very little about this new variant so we will have to wait and see, but hopefully this illustrates in vivid colour, that this virus will not fizzle out on its own, if we simply run and hide from it.

We will probably never be stronger in the future, to face this virus, then are right now. We are all recently fully vaccinated and we have a pretty good understanding of the variants currently in our society. The time is now to face down this thing. Get small exposures, but vital protection so that if a virus does mutate, so as to escape the vaccines, it still finds it hard to mutate and escape from all the proteins of itself. That is what exposure should do. Just make sure you pick your places for it. Don't let the virus pick them for you. If you are vaccinated, you will probably survive either way, but the difference in days sick and worrying nights will be significantly different, as well as how many people you would be able to infect.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Mutations are normal and no big deal.......is what some said about the Delta variant.


Someone said that we'd have vaccines for everyone by September, here we are at the end of August, with no vaccine for millions, the 4th wave and an election.

Stupid people say all sorts of [email protected]#$


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Someone said that we'd have vaccines for everyone by September, here we are at the end of August, with no vaccine for millions, the 4th wave and an election.


Didn't read anything about that ... did we run out of vaccine?


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Didn't read anything about that ... did we run out of vaccine?


No, it's just illegal to give it to millions of Canadians.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> No, it's just illegal to give it to millions of Canadians.


Ummm ok, not sure what your point is other than some people don't want to get vaccinated.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I am pretty sure he is talking about the kids under 12. I suspect one of the problems with that group is finding a parent willing to offer up their children, to be used in the safety and efficacy trials. 

Add to that the fact that the virus is not taking down our children in significant numbers and I would not hold your breathe on seeing that vaccine anytime soon.


----------



## sags

The kids aren't in school yet.

Throwing them all together in schools with poor ventilation during a severe 4th wave is probably a really dumb idea.

I don't expect either that school openings will last long, or intelligent decisions from our Premier.


----------



## sags

The new variant from South Africa (C 1.2 variant) has multiple mutations and scientists say it is likely able to transmit faster than the Delta and evade vaccines.

It is just a matter of time........a few weeks or so, and the new variant will become the dominant virus in North America.

If the scientists fears are true......we won't be able to control the hospitalizations and deaths.

We need to lock down immediately if it appears anywhere in Canada, before it cripples our healthcare system.

The alarm sirens are going off in the world of virology.


----------



## damian13ster

Yet infection numbers in South Africa are falling since July 8


----------



## OptsyEagle

Send the kids to school or keep them at home, it will not make much difference unless you intend not to invite them to the family Christmas dinner. At least in school they might actually learn something. As for infections. Kids don't seem to be affected by these viruses, enough to use that as the sole reason to change the entire learning experience for them all. As for them bringing the virus home to infect others. I can assure you the infection you get from a 7 year old will be night and day better for you, on average, then the one you will get from your 65 year old unvaccinated uncle, at that same Christmas dinner. 

All I am trying to point out to everyone is we all now have numerous very large holes in our covid protection boats and we need to quickly reassess the situation on how we can protect ourselves, in this new world of vaccinated people socializing and incredibly infectious viruses.


----------



## sags

I would rather skip a big family Christmas dinner, than have empty chairs for those who passed away from covid.

If you choose to bear the risk of getting infected.....be my guest. I have no intention of deliberately exposing myself or family to the virus.


----------



## sags

The Delta variant has wreaked havoc with healthcare systems, despite vaccinations.

The highly contagious Delta variant that was first discovered in India is now responsible for most of the latest surge of cases in the U.S., where average hospitalizations have reached 100,000 per day even with vaccinations. That is higher than any previous surge except for winter, before the vaccines were widely available. New U.S. cases are up 20% over the last 14 days, according to data tracked by the New York Times, with the average daily number at 156,886 as of Sunday. *Deaths in the U.S. are up 96%, averaging 1,296 daily*. Average daily new cases in South Africa are holding steady around 10,565, the Times reported.

The new South African variant is even more dangerous.

• *Scientists in South Africa identified a new variant of coronavirus that has “increased transmissibility” and an increased ability to evade antibodies*, according to newly published research. The variant was discovered in May in cases around the cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria, and has since been detected throughout South Africa and in seven other countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and Oceana. The scientists said the newest variant, called C.1.2., has a “concerning constellation of mutations.” Variants from the original coronavirus strain have caused surges in the illness.









Scientists Alarmed Over 'Transmissibility' of New South Africa Covid Variant


Here's what you need to know to navigate the markets today.




www.barrons.com


----------



## gibor365

OptsyEagle said:


> I am pretty sure he is talking about the kids under 12. I suspect one of the problems with that group is finding a parent willing to offer up their children, to be used in the safety and efficacy trials.
> 
> Add to that the fact that the virus is not taking down our children in significant numbers and I would not hold your breathe on seeing that vaccine anytime soon.


Israel is doing massive vaccination to kids 3+ and starting yesterday they lowered age to 12+ for a booster shot.








Israel offers COVID-19 booster to all vaccinated people


Israel on Sunday began offering a COVID-19 booster to children as young as 12, and its prime minister said a campaign that began a month ago among seniors has slowed a rise in severe illness caused by the Delta variant.




www.reuters.com




Israel even before this announcement administered x3.75 times vaccines on daily basis than Canada


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> Israel even before this announcement administered x3.75 times vaccines on daily basis than Canada


To bad Israel has fallen way short for the total number of fully vaccinated compared to Canada.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Well duh.
> Viruses mutate to increase transmission. That's common knowledge and common sense.


 ... no duh. Viruses don't mutate to "increase" transmission. They mutate to survive, just like any living being/organism. Heard the word "evolution? Transmissions (aka another word for "infections") happen because of another living sucker being near it. And that increases when more people are around an infectious person. The virus didn't come out of thin air - it was present in another animal that jumped over to humans ... and possibly to other animals (eg. dog/cat) - that's how transmissions happen and then increase. And in the meantime, the virus continues to mutate if the host(s) don't die.



> If a variant has lower transmission rate it never grabs hold.


 ... and just how do you propose to do that with everyone moving around everywhere with all the opportunity to "share aka spread" it? How about we use your brilliant plan of "no restrictions!" whatsoever.



> *Higher transmission can be a good thing if the severity of infection is lower.* That's ideal scenario.
> Need to wait to find out severity of it


 ... LMAO with that statement. So predict to me which gun click will not produce a live shot? Or maybe you're the virus' friend and knows how it exactly behaves?


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> To bad Israel has fallen way short for the total number of fully vaccinated compared to Canada.


I wouldn’t say “way short”. Canada is at 66% , Israel at 62% and EU at 57%.
Israel has a problem with vaccination of 2 groups: Arabs and Ultra Orthodox


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> Yet infection numbers in South Africa are falling since July 8


I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that they went into strict lockdown in the end of June: South Africa enters strict lockdown to combat 'extremely serious' impact of Delta variant

You can do the math and figure out why infection numbers were falling.

Edit: And here's what the lockdown measures were: Disaster Management Act: Regulations: Alert Level 4 During Coronavirus COVID-19 Lockdown (as Of 28th June 2021) - SA Corona Virus Online Portal


----------



## sags

My wife's retirement home is set to give the residents booster shots tomorrow. She didn't say if the employees would be getting boosters, but effective next week any employee not vaccinated will have to arrive to work 30 minutes early and wait in their cars to take a test and wait for the results. It will be unpaid time.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... no duh. Viruses don't mutate to "increase" transmission. They mutate to survive, just like any living being/organism. Heard the word "evolution? Transmissions (aka another word for "infections") happen because of another living sucker being near it. And that increases when more people are around an infectious person. The virus didn't come out of thin air - it was present in another animal that jumped over to humans ... and possibly to other animals (eg. dog/cat) - that's how transmissions happen and then increase. And in the meantime, the virus continues to mutate if the host(s) don't die.
> 
> ... and just how do you propose to do that with everyone moving around everywhere with all the opportunity to "share aka spread" it? How about we use your brilliant plan of "no restrictions!" whatsoever.
> 
> ... LMAO with that statement. So predict to me which gun click will not produce a live shot? Or maybe you're the virus' friend and knows how it exactly behaves?


Yeah, and they survive by fast transmission.
Why do you think alpha is gone and delta is dominant to the point of 95%.........

And I am not proposing anything to lower transmission. Simply stated that variant with lower transmission will not grab hold.
If there are two variants, A and B, A has higher transmission and B lower transmission, then A will dominate and B won't survive (or grab hold).

I don't know how it behaves, and that's why we need to wait to see if it is less or more dangerous than other variants.
There are literally hundreds of thousands of viruses in your body. Some of them extremely dangerous to small part of population. Yet they exist and we accept them.
So if this one is similar, then we want it to have as high of a transmission as possible so it dominates, replacing more dangerous variants.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that they went into strict lockdown in the end of June: South Africa enters strict lockdown to combat 'extremely serious' impact of Delta variant
> 
> You can do the math and figure out why infection numbers were falling.
> 
> Edit: And here's what the lockdown measures were: Disaster Management Act: Regulations: Alert Level 4 During Coronavirus COVID-19 Lockdown (as Of 28th June 2021) - SA Corona Virus Online Portal












Yeah, it is not like tripling the amount of testing increases amount of cases found......


----------



## sags

People generally don't seek testing until they are already sick. I have never had a test because I haven't had symptoms.


----------



## Spudd

gibor365 said:


> I wouldn’t say “way short”. Canada is at 66% , Israel at 62% and EU at 57%.
> Israel has a problem with vaccination of 2 groups: Arabs and Ultra Orthodox


They also have a higher population of kids than we do.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that they went into strict lockdown in the end of June: South Africa enters strict lockdown to combat 'extremely serious' impact of Delta variant
> 
> You can do the math and figure out why infection numbers were falling.
> 
> Edit: And here's what the lockdown measures were: Disaster Management Act: Regulations: Alert Level 4 During Coronavirus COVID-19 Lockdown (as Of 28th June 2021) - SA Corona Virus Online Portal


 ... re 2nd link - I haven't read the whole list but just saw the first paragraph (17) - a curfew. My lord, I'm sure an anti-restrictions-body is gonna to go bananas upon seeing this. 

*



Movement of persons (as updated on 11 July 2021)
(Curfew)

Click to expand...

*


> _
> *17. (1) Every person is confined to his or her place of residence from 21H00 until 04H00 daily, unless a person-*
> (a) has been granted permission through directions issued by the relevant Cabinet member or a permit, which corresponds with Form 7 of Annexure A, to perform a service other than a service related to an activity listed under Table 1;
> (b) is attending to a security or medical emergency; or
> (c) arrives on a flight or is travelling to or from an airport which necessitates travelling during restricted hours of movement: Provided that the person traveling is in possession of a valid boarding pass as proof of flight or a copy of the airline ticket._


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> View attachment 22085
> 
> 
> Yeah, it is not like tripling the amount of testing increases amount of cases found......


Because people go for random tests? More like that people get tested when they suspect they have covid, usually symptoms or close contact, but what's your point? Oh, you're trying to say that testing is what causes case increase. 
BTW you notice the uptake in August? Coincides with loosening restrictions at the end of July: Summary Of Level 3 Regulations (as Of 26th July 2021) - SA Corona Virus Online Portal

But since you seem to think that increased cases is due to testing, maybe deaths is a better indicator for you.










Also kind of goes against your argument that cases have been falling since July 8. I get it now, you think if we stop completely testing, covid cases will disappear.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... re 2nd link - I haven't read the whole list but just saw the first paragraph (17) - a curfew. My lord, I'm sure an anti-restrictions-body is gonna to go bananas upon seeing this.


Quebec had a curfew for a bit. But they're also going for vaccine passports. I remember that at the start, South Africa was used as a model for controlling covid due to their experience with dealing with other pandemics, but people tended to forget the fact that they also put in some restrictions and took it seriously.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> Because people go for random tests? More like that people get tested when they suspect they have covid, usually symptoms or close contact, but what's your point? Oh, you're trying to say that testing is what causes case increase.
> BTW you notice the uptake in August? Coincides with loosening restrictions at the end of July: Summary Of Level 3 Regulations (as Of 26th July 2021) - SA Corona Virus Online Portal
> 
> But since you seem to think that increased cases is due to testing, maybe deaths is a better indicator for you.
> 
> View attachment 22086
> 
> 
> Also kind of goes against your argument that cases have been falling since July 8. I get it now, you think if we stop completely testing, covid cases will disappear.


Yet no uptake in Texas for full 5 months after full reopening. It is almost like waves happen regardless of government actions


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Yeah, and they survive by fast transmission.
> Why do you think alpha is gone and delta is dominant to the point of 95%.........


 ... just how do you know Alpha is "gone" despite Delta is dominant? There could be residuals of Alpha in the population (eg. survivors), just that part of that has mutated to Delta in the newly infecteds



> And I am not proposing anything to lower transmission. Simply stated that variant with lower transmission will not grab hold.
> If there are two variants, A and B, A has higher transmission and B lower transmission, then A will dominate and B won't survive (or grab hold).


 ... well yes, B has converted from A. But the transmission from B is still there - in fact, a higher transmission if there were "no restrictions" that you had proposed or "the restrictions" you were b1tching about. 



> I don't know how it behaves, and that's why we need to wait to see if it is less or more dangerous than other variants.
> There are literally hundreds of thousands of viruses in your body. Some of them extremely dangerous to small part of population. Yet they exist and we accept them.
> *So if this one is similar, then we want it to have as high of a transmission as possible so it dominates, replacing more dangerous variants.*


 ... again, that's your prediction. Not a solution. Don't you want solutions to end this pandemic?


----------



## damian13ster

Having highly transmissible non-harmful strain take over and dominate is the solution to end this pandemic


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> And they were right:
> 
> View attachment 22082
> 
> 
> The 4th wave is relatively insignificant so far. Almost need a magnifying glass to see it.
> Of course it might change, but there is few indications it will


When you see the curves starting to head upwards, it is really foolish to say 'no reason to expect it to continue'.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> No, it's just illegal to give it to millions of Canadians.


It's Trudeau's fault that the vaccines haven't been approved for use in children yet. Right...


----------



## andrewf

bgc_fan said:


> I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that they went into strict lockdown in the end of June: South Africa enters strict lockdown to combat 'extremely serious' impact of Delta variant
> 
> You can do the math and figure out why infection numbers were falling.
> 
> Edit: And here's what the lockdown measures were: Disaster Management Act: Regulations: Alert Level 4 During Coronavirus COVID-19 Lockdown (as Of 28th June 2021) - SA Corona Virus Online Portal


But BGC, lockdowns don't work!


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> It's Trudeau's fault that the vaccines haven't been approved for use in children yet. Right...


Of course not.
But he knew they wouldn't when he lied and said they would,


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Having highly transmissible non-harmful strain take over and dominate is the solution to end this pandemic


 ... I'll wait for the forum's virologist OE's expertise on this.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> Having highly transmissible non-harmful strain take over and dominate is the solution to end this pandemic


You are close to the right answer but I will add that it is unlikely that if the only change to the virus, is a mutation to become more infectious, it will almost never make the virus less harmful.

If a virus is more infectious, it means that you can get a larger dose of it for the same time of exposure, then with the older less infectious virus. That larger dose will always make you more ill, then a lower dose. 

The creation of safer infections, that I have been talking about, that come from a more infectious virus, is not done by changing dangerous ones into safer ones, it is done by simply creating more safer infections then were there before with the older variant. The dangerous ones are still there and to be honest, they have become even more dangerous in this new variant.

The part you were right on is a more infectious virus will get this damn pandemic over with a lot quicker and I think it is time we focused on that.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> Yet no uptake in Texas for full 5 months after full reopening. It is almost like waves happen regardless of government actions


I see, so now that your original argument falls apart, let's look at something else. Looks like a delta surge like everywhere else. The question is, is it worse than other jurisdictions that actually have restrictions?









Of course, that's a loaded question, because many places that put back the mask mandate are doing that in response to the delta surge. So to say that masking or other such policies don't work is only true when they aren't in place.


----------



## james4beach

I was looking at Oregon's covid statistics (since I used to live there) and it's kind of interesting. It seems like a good news story, to me...

There is a huge increase in covid across the state, but Oregon can be separated two basically two regions. There's Multnomah County, which is the big city (Portland metro area), and everything else is more or less rural.

The Portland city area still shows a large increase in cases, but miraculously is reporting virtually zero deaths through the whole summer. The vaccination rate in Portland is very high, and mask usage is reasonably good.

Meanwhile, the rest of the state, shows escalating deaths, and covid is really out of control. These rural areas have very low vaccination rates, and don't wear masks.

... so all of this is "good news" because it does appear that high vaccination rates combined with diligent mask usage is able to prevent deaths. This is fantastic. *Even though Oregon is seeing a powerful fourth wave, the vaccinated areas have virtually no deaths.*


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> ... so all of this is "good news" because it does appear that high vaccination rates combined with diligent mask usage is able to prevent deaths. This is fantastic. *Even though Oregon is seeing a powerful fourth wave, the vaccinated areas have virtually no deaths.*


It would be the high vaccination rates that are the main contributor of this good news story with socializing outside a close second in benefit. Of course masking will help but it pales in significance to those two things.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> It would be the high vaccination rates that are the main contributor of this good news story with socializing outside a close second in benefit. Of course masking will help but it pales in significance to those two things.


Possibly true, but I just talked with some Oregon people, and they told me that everyone seems pretty careful about mask usage.

Just wanted to share, and I think it's a hopeful story. In Canada we likely are going to see # of cases skyrocket, but it does not necessarily means our deaths will skyrocket.

Look at the UK stats too. Their covid cases are up, but deaths are only rising at a slow pace.


----------



## OptsyEagle

The UK population is now measuring 94% covid antibodies, as of last week. That is a combination of both vaccination and natural infections. That is certainly a place we should keep a close eye on. If that does not start to take the teeth out this virus I am not sure what will. It will be interesting to see.

Of course we need to keep an eye on the deaths and hospitalizations there. Antibodies do not stop infections, only the results from infections.


----------



## sags

It is downright amazing how common sense produces good results.


----------



## sags

Anti-vaxx/mask........._.I can't wear a mask because it suffocates my brain. _

Doctor.........okay, wear a face shield then.

Anti-vax/mask........_.I can't because my eyes need more oxygen._

Doctor........I wear both a mask and face shield all day and my brain and eyes are fine.

Anti-vax/mask..........._.It infringes on my rights.......2nd Amendment, or maybe the 4th Amendment, ......or one of the other ones._


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Anti-vaxx/mask........._.I can't wear a mask because it suffocates my brain. _
> 
> Doctor.........okay, wear a face shield then.
> 
> Anti-vax/mask........_.I can't because my eyes need more oxygen._
> 
> Doctor........I wear both a mask and face shield all day and my brain and eyes are fine.
> 
> Anti-vax/mask..........._.It infringes on my rights.......2nd Amendment, or maybe the 4th Amendment, ......or one of the other ones._


I love/hate how people combine different issues as if they were one.

Having concerns with the vaccine is very different than being anti-mask.
Sure there is overlap, but they are completely different issues.


----------



## Beaver101

^ That "/ = slash sign" means "or" of which sags is using for writing convenience. I don't read anti-vaxxers as having their brains suffocated ... or maybe they did, now that you brought it to light - overlapping/combining the 2 (anti-vaxx and anti-mask).


----------



## bgc_fan

People keep pointing to Israel as proof that vaccination doesn't work or is ineffective. The point is that data is being misinterpreted, particularly due to the fact that you have to consider percentage of vaccinated and age groups. Here's a someone breaking down the numbers: Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?.
As for the author, here is his bio: Jeffrey S. Morris, PhD


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> People keep pointing to Israel as proof that vaccination doesn't work or is ineffective. The point is that data is being misinterpreted, particularly due to the fact that you have to consider percentage of vaccinated and age groups. Here's a someone breaking down the numbers: Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?.
> As for the author, here is his bio: Jeffrey S. Morris, PhD


I do feel sorry for the people who require a point to be simplified, to a level that can be understood by a 6th grader, in order for them to want to, or even be able to, use it to form their own opinions.

I always want to apologize when I write a long winded post to explain my points, but unfortuneately with Covid, if one attempts to simplify it, it simply gets contested by so many because they simply don't understand all the background behind the point that is being made. It is that background that is unfortuneately long winded but critical to the point being made.

That article is a very good example of the problem I am referring to. This pandemic, and the best way out of it, is unfortuneately not easy to simplify.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> People keep pointing to Israel as proof that vaccination doesn't work or is ineffective.


Some people are.

I think you can point to Canada or Israel or many other countries that the current vaccine isn't effective enough to return to normal. Which is a VERY different claim than "it doesn't work", or "it is ineffective".
It certainly does work, quite well for saving lives.


----------



## sags

All the messaging from government and health authorities was that vaccines would protect against hospitalization and severe symptoms.

Isn't that why they refer to cases as "breakthrough" cases.......as in break through the protection of the vaccine ?

Of course they only knew what they knew at the time, but it is apparent that vaccination doesn't provide an impenetrable shield, especially for older folks.

Vaccines do effectively reduce the likelihood of a serious illness, but they don't eliminate the risk.

Even with vaccines, we still need to mask, social distance and apply restrictions when needed.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Some people are.
> 
> I think you can point to Canada or Israel or many other countries that the current vaccine isn't effective enough to return to normal. Which is a VERY different claim than "it doesn't work", or "it is ineffective".
> It certainly does work, quite well for saving lives.


That depends on how you implement the plan to return to normal. If you just say "everyone go back to normal", I agree you will have some serious fallout. Considering the % of population that don't even have the vaccine and add to that the population that cannot get it, either due to young age or medical reasons and add in even more where it does not work very well. Your immune compromised and very old and frail.

If you just say "OK, everyone, run and hide, and protect yourself", you will have covid-19 pandemic until the dinosaurs come back.

The best plan is to, vaccinate as many people as you can. Get the non-sensical unvaccinated to come forward via very restrictive passports. Tell the immune compromised and perhaps anyone older then 65, to continue to protect themselves, via masking, social distancing, etc. Then you tell the rest of the vaccinated populations, healthy and younger then 65 to go back to normal in specific situations. Outside for sure, and short time indoors, like various retail stores, etc. 

Get that group of people slowly exposed to the virus, so that their improved immunity starts to offer protection for the other group who gets to go back to normal, perhaps a year later.

I doubt covid will ever offer us a one size fits all solution.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> I do feel sorry for the people who require a point to be simplified, to a level that can be understood by a 6th grader, in order for them to want to, or even be able to, use it to form their own opinions.


Vaccine messaging should be as simple as possible, like for a 6 grader but that's not really the problem IMO. The issue is social media has a huge amount of negative (and false) messaging and many, especially younger people, use that as a main source of information.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Vaccine messaging should be as simple as possible, like for a 6 grader but that's not really the problem IMO. The issue is social media has a huge amount of negative (and false) messaging and many, especially younger people, use that as a main source of information.


Sure, but as you can see, you cannot get the point in the article that bgc posted, down to a level that a 6th grader will understand. All they will see is more vaccinated hospitalized then unvaccinated and simply derive from that the idea that the vaccine does not work very well.

*As I have said, numerous times, that if you delve into the information more closely, you will see the vaccines are actually working incredibly well.* I have many times had to add to that statement that one needs to understand that people with co-morbidities are driving up the vaccinated numbers and because they are not in the unvaccinated population, making that comparison look worse. Add to that, the larger group of vaccinated in the overall population now, and then adjust for age, because the older people are mostly vaccinated and younger people are not, remembering again that the young did not need much protection to begin with...and somewhere in all that I just lost that 6th grader mind and they move on to what the headline in the article is saying...the vaccine must not work very well.

You see what I mean. It is unfortuneate.


----------



## sags

People read the headlines and watch a bit of the announcements by "authorities".

When a health minister says vaccination protects against severe illness, they have heard what they want and figure they are good to resume all activities.

In depth reading and comprehension isn't most people's idea of a good time.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> People read the headlines and watch a bit of the announcements by "authorities".
> 
> When a health minister says vaccination protects against severe illness, they have heard what they want and figure they are good to resume all activities.
> 
> In depth reading and comprehension isn't most people's idea of a good time.


They are saying "vaccinate to get back to normal", which is well known to be a false statement. 
that's my concern, not about "misunderstanding", it's about what they' actually say.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> People read the headlines and watch a bit of the announcements by "authorities".
> 
> When a health minister says vaccination protects against severe illness, they have heard what they want and figure they are good to resume all activities.
> 
> In depth reading and comprehension isn't most people's idea of a good time.


Because for the most part that information from the Health Minister is correct, I have no problem with it. It is when someone contradicts it, has everything in this article explained to them, as I have done many times over the last few weeks, perhaps in slightly different words:









Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?


A surge involving the rapidly-transmitting Delta variant in heavily vaccinated countries has led to much hand-wringing that the vaccines are not effective against Delta, or vaccine effectivenss wanes after 4-6 months. This has fueled anti-vaccine sentiment suggesting the vaccines are not...




www.covid-datascience.com





and still argues, that the vaccines are not working well enough for the vast majority of people to consider themselves safely protected. That can't help but get annoying. Either take direction and be quiet, or step up and make some kind of attempt to truly understand the variables involved that are playing a major role in what you are talking about.

As we know, headlines are just headlines. Even the Scientists are getting fooled by them, quite often. I would think everyone must have noticed that by now, as well. You have to do your own work and do it competently.

*If, by now, you do not think the vaccines are incredibly protective, for the vast majority of people without co-morbidities, then you need to look at it again.* You have missed that very important point and it is worth the time because it affects just about everything in your life, including your life and it is a critical component of how we are going to proceed going forward.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Sure, but as you can see, you cannot get the point in the article that bgc posted, down to a level that a 6th grader will understand. All they will see is more vaccinated hospitalized then unvaccinated and simply derive from that the idea that the vaccine does not work very well.


I believe you can. Simply look at the overlay of graphs of cases, hospitalizations and deaths over time with and overlay of fully vaccinated. As more and more get fully vaccinated the hospitalizations and death counts should drop significantly for countries that have a high vaccine uptake.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Some people are.
> 
> I think you can point to Canada or Israel or many other countries that the current vaccine isn't effective enough to return to normal. Which is a VERY different claim than "it doesn't work", or "it is ineffective".
> It certainly does work, quite well for saving lives.


Sure, the problem is that some people see this as a binary situation, it either works completely, or not at all. If it doesn't work for certain circumstances, then it falls in the not at all category so why bother?

Of course, any promises for return to pre-pandemic normal were kind of predicated on herd immunity, which is being sabotaged by people who choose not to get vaccinated. In other words, they're the reason why we can't get to "normal", but they keep complaining that we're not getting there. Another caveat is that we're talking about herd immunity for the world, not just Canada. But then since animals can act as a covid reservoir (remember the minks?), covid is going to be here for the duration, so we have to adjust accordingly. 



cainvest said:


> Vaccine messaging should be as simple as possible, like for a 6 grader but that's not really the problem IMO. The issue is social media has a huge amount of negative (and false) messaging and many, especially younger people, use that as a main source of information.


The issue about social media and google is that everything is predicated on your viewpoint. So you're just going to get information that confirms your biases and wonder where others are getting this other information. Since they don't see this other information, it must be fake, so they keep with what they know. If it's anti-vax viewpoint, it just gets reinforced.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Of course, any promises for return to pre-pandemic normal were kind of predicated on herd immunity, which is being sabotaged by people who choose not to get vaccinated.


no, the concept of herd immunity was based on behaviour not typically observed in Coronaviruses.
Comparing COVID19 to the Spanish Flu was wrong on multiple levels.
Sure some of the impacts are useful, but a Coronavirus is not a Flu virus.



> In other words, they're the reason why we can't get to "normal", but they keep complaining that we're not getting there.


Go back to March 2020, I wrote extensively how the "hope for vaccine solution" is a wish, and not currently supported by the science. By "the science" I quoted multiple studies about the difficulty in coronavirus vaccines, and the likelyhood of requiring regular variant boosters, which experts were suggesting would be required somewhere between 3 & 12 months, assuming a vaccine could be created at all.

No reasonably competent expert thought that a vaccine would solve this in early 2020, they tried, as they should have.
But politicians got some good news, misrepresented it, and continue to run with the false promise of an easy vaccine solution.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> no, the concept of herd immunity was based on behaviour not typically observed in Coronaviruses.


You mean the idea that it mutates? The initial expectation/hope was that it wouldn't mutate much and that the vaccine would be effective against mutations, which it is to some degree. As time goes on, there will be genetic drift and it will be different enough that boosters are required. However, as with everything science, things change.

That being said, some of the people who are complaining about the situation, are also people who don't want to be part of the solution. Lockdowns and preventative measures are only there to delay the inevitable and the vaccine would have been able to resolve the majority of the issues, i.e. reduced severity of covid. You only have to look at Australia, they were good with their lockdown restrictions, but eventually, there's going to be a breakthrough. Vaccines are a tool to mitigate any sort of breakthrough.


----------



## OptsyEagle

My concern about the multiple posters on these boards wrongly downplaying the effectiveness of the vaccine was that it was a critical component of the opportunity that is currently before us, but an opportunity that may decline over time if we don't act soon.

The effectiveness of the vaccine may, and I repeat may, decline in effectiveness over time. The ability to continue to simply booster it is not guaranteed, which I will explain in a moment, and even so, takes too much time and requires each citizen to again, decide to take it. We know how that works. The other point is that if we give this pandemic too much time, we may find that a new mutation renders the effectiveness of this vaccine too low, to move forward.

As I have said, many times so far, the only way we are getting out of this mess is to bolster our immune systems so that the virus is not dangerous to us anymore. Hopefully I don't have any arguments about that. Since the vaccine alone, can get us very close to it, but not perhaps as much as we want and certainly has shown that it cannot do it for all of us, then we need something more, to boost our immune systems.

It seems to me, and I think soon we may start to get some info on this, that a combo of both vaccination AND mild exposure to the virus is going to provide us with the protection that we need. The best way to approach that is as follows:

1) Vaccinate as many of our citizens as we can.
2) Start our move forward to face the virus soon, before the virus mutates or the vaccine declines in it's effectiveness.
3) Start with the least vulnerable citizens to move forward first, while the more vulnerable maintain previous protections.
4) As the amount of virus, in the community declines when that first group become more and more immune, the rest of our citizens can follow, hopefully protected by that reduced level of virus going around.

That is what I think we should do. I don't think there is any other idea that gets us out of this mess, that is anything more then a delay or a dream, and if it this one doesn't, I believe the vaccine effectiveness makes any negative fallout, from this approach, very manageable, at this time.


----------



## sags

The virus mutates to defeat our natural immunity, so herd immunity isn't possible.

The solution is a treatment that seeks out and kills the invading virus quickly after a person is infected and before it does too much damage.

Vaccines are just buying time to develop that treatment. We will likely have booster shots in some form until that discovery.

Booster shots in pill or spray form would be a great development, as they are easy to administer and deliver to people.

Given the mutation rate of this virus is twice the normal rate, I don't expect the Delta variant is the last one we will face.

Already, scientists are carefully watching several variants, with the latest multiple-mutation South African C 1.2 the variant of most concern.

A week ago there was no mention of that variant. Today there are 2 stories about it on CNN and several other news sources are talking about it now.

That is pretty much how the Delta evolved from India. First nothing, then a few stories, then a discovery in North America, then it just spread like wildfire.

Hopefully our politicians are prepared for anything that may be coming and willing to make necessary decisions accordingly.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> The issue about social media and google is that everything is predicated on your viewpoint. So you're just going to get information that confirms your biases and wonder where others are getting this other information. Since they don't see this other information, it must be fake, so they keep with what they know. If it's anti-vax viewpoint, it just gets reinforced.


Partially true yes ... hense the need for simple "6th grade" graphics showing the vaccine effects.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> You mean the idea that it mutates?


Yes



> The initial expectation/hope was that it wouldn't mutate much and that the vaccine would be effective against mutations, (truncated)


That was stupid assumption not supported by the science now or at the time.



> That being said, some of the people who are complaining about the situation, are also people who don't want to be part of the solution.


Of course.
However I'm just advocating and admonishing those in positions of authority to stop making it worse.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Given the mutation rate of this virus is twice the normal rate, I don't expect the Delta variant is the last one we will face.


Please provide a source, or is this simply more "sags making up disinformation"


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> The virus mutates to defeat our natural immunity, so herd immunity isn't possible.


Not nearly as fast as it can mutate and reduce the effectiveness of the vaccine. That is why we need the natural immunity and we need it soon.

Anyway, whether anyone noticed or not, my suggestion is actually currently in effect. The people who are fully vaccinated and resuming their socialization luckily are not looking at any of the graphs and certainly are not reading any of our posts. That socialization will do what we need it to do. I am just trying to get people here a little more comfortable with it and it would be better if the public understood what is actually more safe now and what is less safe.

There are some ways to socialize that have been proven to be more safe then others and of course we know some people are safer then others to socialize in the 1st place, so it would be nice if some of those precautions were announced to the public, but other then that, I think we are nicely on our way.

We can thank the vaccine effectiveness and the Delta variant for that.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Partially true yes ... hense the need for simple "6th grade" graphics showing the vaccine effects.


You mean like this? I've posted it before.




__





xkcd: mRNA Vaccine






m.xkcd.com


----------



## sags




----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Please provide a source, or is this simply more "sags making up disinformation"


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> You mean like this? I've posted it before.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> xkcd: mRNA Vaccine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> m.xkcd.com


Nope ... TLDR, I used the average population attention span.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Nope ... TLDR, I used the average population attention span.


Too bad, you can't really make a one panel comic to explain how they work. But lots of cartoons to explain.









Cartoons that explain how the COVID vaccines work


Emily Watters is a physician who shares how the COVID vaccines work.




www.kevinmd.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> View attachment 22091


I guess that's a yes, more COVID19 disinformation from sags.
Why did I ever take you off ignore.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> Too bad, you can't really make a one panel comic to explain how they work. But lots of cartoons to explain.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cartoons that explain how the COVID vaccines work
> 
> 
> Emily Watters is a physician who shares how the COVID vaccines work.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kevinmd.com


Probably just need a simple running daily graph showing percentage per 10000 of fully vaccinated vs not that are going into hospital.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> Probably just need a simple running daily graph showing percentage per 10000 of fully vaccinated vs not that are going into hospital.


Like this? (For Ontario)



http://imgur.com/BhVuMFz


----------



## sags

Am I wrong.......or does that graph not show that if you are unvaccinated and catch the covid, you are almost certain to end up hospitalized with a high probability of needing ICU care ?


----------



## bgc_fan

As an aside, 


sags said:


> Am I wrong.......or does that graph not show that if you are unvaccinated and catch the covid, you are almost certain to end up hospitalized with a high probability of needing ICU care ?


Makes sense, if you're going to the hospital for covid, it's likely going to be serious and likely need ICU care. People aren't going to go to the hospital for a mild flu-like symptoms.

As an aside, before someone brings up India as getting covid under control without any measures, they just undercount covid-related deaths. India's Covid crisis: The newsroom counting the uncounted deaths


----------



## sags

Yup.......that is what I figured.....Indian politicians being politicians after all.

_Look........no deaths hardly, except for the ones we didn't count._

When the videos were showing bodies being cremated in parking lots and they were saying they were running out of wood.....you knew something was wrong.

When they showed people collapsed on the street and in their vehicles for lack of oxygen.....you knew it was worse than the officials were saying.

Maybe they didn't want to create panic or maybe they just didn't want to lose the next election.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> Like this? (For Ontario)
> 
> 
> 
> http://imgur.com/BhVuMFz


That's better but just show a running graph with "today's rate" maybe per 1,000 to make the numbers larger. Also, just show fully vaxed vs others.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> That's better but just show a running graph with "today's rate" maybe per 1,000 to make the numbers larger. Also, just show fully vaxed vs others.


Not my job. I've got better things to do.


----------



## cainvest

bgc_fan said:


> Not my job. I've got better things to do.


lol, not saying you ... the gov should do that to easily show the difference in simple terms.

Sadly our MB gov has decided to show vax/non-vax using pure numbers which doesn't take into account the far greater percentage of vaxed people now.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> As an aside, before someone brings up India as getting covid under control without any measures, they just undercount covid-related deaths. India's Covid crisis: The newsroom counting the uncounted deaths


You still can't under count 8.5 million deaths. That many people would surely be missed.

The point I was making from India is that no matter what number you want to use for deaths, Delta has decreased in severity, significantly, if you measure severity in deaths per infections. The reason for that is not because Delta is safer, but more because it is so much more infectious. It is actually more dangerous then the other virus, creating more deaths, but it creates a magnitude higher number of safer milder infections then the other variants ever did.

This is a function of increased infectiousness. The reason I pointed it out is we can simply use the vaccine to take the teeth out it to avoid most of the deaths and harness the benefits from the safer infections, that this variant creates, to bolster our own immune protection, so as to use the attributes of this variant against itself.

It is not only the best plan we have but the one we will be implementing because in case you did not notice, the Delta variant did not ask us to choose what we wanted. It made this decision for us and it will be what it will be. We cannot stop it. I am just trying to educate people on how I suspect it will all go down.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> lol, not saying you ... the gov should do that to easily show the difference in simple terms.
> 
> Sadly our MB gov has decided to show vax/non-vax using pure numbers which doesn't take into account the far greater percentage of vaxed people now.


Yeah, pure numbers aren't a way to go, but I guess that's easier to understand.



OptsyEagle said:


> You still can't under count 8.5 million deaths. That many people would surely be missed.


They're dead. The government just doesn't count them in the official covid counts. It's not that people suddenly disappeared. They're just not counted as covid deaths, rather, just other illnesses. Excess mortality is a good indication of undercounting occuring. Even if not all of the increased mortality this year is due to covid, we're still talking about millions, much more than the official count. Officially, they have about 500k covid deaths, unofficially, it's probably more like 5M.








Covid May Have Claimed as Many as 5 Million Lives in India


Multiple studies show the nation’s virus carnage is vastly underestimated, drawing repeated denials from Modi’s government.




www.bloomberg.com





As for delta, that's a different issue.


----------



## sags

Reminds of Gerald Cotton, the owner of the Quadriga crypto exchange who supposedly died in India.

Nobody knows exactly what happened to him because they don't keep very good records of such things.....even when wealthy foreigners die there, let alone the urban poor who live in the massive slums and get their groceries from the local landfill site.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Lets not argue about India and its record keeping. I suspect the true answer is somewhere between what we both think but I don't need it to make my point. It just illustrated it better for those who can't wrap their mind around what truly happens with a more infectious virus. You don't just get more of the same ratio of infections.

The concentration of the virus is one of the primary components that increases your dose of infection, that determines how sick you get. As you move away from the infected person that concentration decreases because the area away from them increases. Not only will the concentration of the virus decrease but you can put more people in that area that has increased. That phenomenon is why a more infectious virus creates so many more milder infections as its ability to infect people further away is improved.

India was a good example of that but if you want to dispute India by simply saying the numbers are wrong without proof to the degree of that, then simply ponder what I said above and you should be able to see the same thing.

A more infectious virus, like the Delta, will make the older infections more severe but also create a significantly larger number of milder infections, as it infects people at further distances. We know our vaccine can take the severity out of older type that happened closer to the infected person and those plus the milder ones will do wonders in boosting the immunity of our populations to deal with most future mutations.


----------



## sags

Anywhere herd immunity was tried....it failed. Some places tried it repeatedly and it failed repeatedly. How much failure make it a success ?

Herd immunity won't work against covid. We need to kill it off or it will just keep mutating.

That is what it was designed to do in the gain of function research in the Wuhan lab.

The Delta variant isn't the same example of the virus that the bat transmitted to a lab worker in the mine shaft and brought back to the Wuhan military lab.

This is a genetically engineered virus that will find new ways to defeat immunity for as long as it can find a host.

Restrictions are important to deprive the virus of those hosts so it can't mutate.

For all we know the virus could jump back to animals or birds, if deprived of human hosts.

We need treatments to kill this thing. Vaccines only hold it at bay for awhile.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> India was a good example of that but if you want to dispute India by simply saying the numbers are wrong without proof to the degree of that, then simply ponder what I said above and you should be able to see the same thing.
> 
> A more infectious virus, like the Delta, will make the older infections more severe but also create a significantly larger number of milder infections, as it infects people at further distances. We know our vaccine can take the severity out of older type that happened closer to the infected person and those plus the milder ones will do wonders in boosting the immunity of our populations to deal with most future mutations.


I'm not the only one saying that India's numbers are wrong, there are studies, and the very fact that they don't always test everyone for covid when they die will underestimate the numbers. It's not necessarily malicious, but it's one of those things: person is dead, why waste resources to test. The fact that they have an excess mortality in the millions should be a pretty good indicator that something is wrong.

And where do you base the idea that more infectious virus will create more milder infections? Or that it will infect at a distance? You think it's because you expel more viral particles that it'll travel further?


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> And where do you base the idea that more infectious virus will create more milder infections? Or that it will infect at a distance? You think it's because you expel more viral particles that it'll travel further?


The Delta virus is more infectious because of its improved ability to burrow into a human cell and replicate quicker then previous variants. That means that each person requires a lower number of viruses to generate the same level of infection.

All viruses have a minimum required amount to generate an infection. With the delta that amount is less then it was with previous variants. Since an airborne virus will continue to float outward from the infected source, if the concentration of it decreases as it moves away, then a virus that requires less to infect, will be able to infect people at further distances, where as the less infectious variant will not.

To add to this, time of exposure also determines how many viruses a person will breathe in. If a person requires less viruses to get infected, they will be able to breathe that in over a shorter period of time. Put another way, the less infectious virus takes longer time exposure for the same infection to occur. You should be able to see that there are always more shorter time periods in any longer time period. If you only need to be in proximity to another person for 5 minutes, to get infected for example, compared to 10 minute previously, you will find that 5 minute close proximity meetings happen more then twice as often as 10 minute ones do. Just for an example. Since the longer time meetings are so much more rare then shorter ones, and are the ones to cause the more severe infections, a larger number of milder infections will be the end result of a more infectious virus. Plus, milder primary infections usually will lead to more milder secondary infections as well.

When you combine both further distances and shorter time exposures and its effect on the secondary infections from those infections, you can hopefully see why it infected close to 850 million people in India, in just 3 or 4 months, and no where near 8.5 million people died. Most of those infections would end up being fairly mild, but as we saw in the news, certainly not all of them.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> The Delta virus is more infectious because of its improved ability to burrow into a human cell and replicate quicker then previous variants. That means that each person requires a lower number of viruses to generate the same level of infection.
> 
> All viruses have a minimum required amount to generate an infection. With the delta that amount is less then it was with previous variants. Since an airborne virus will continue to float outward from the infected source, if the concentration of it decreases as it moves away, then a virus that requires less to infect, will be able to infect people at further distances, where as the less infectious variant will not.
> 
> To add to this, time of exposure also determines how many viruses a person will breathe in. If a person requires less viruses to get infected, they will be able to breathe that in over a shorter period of time. Put another way, the less infectious virus takes longer time exposure for the same infection to occur. You should be able to see that there are always more shorter time periods in any longer time period. If you only need to be in proximity to another person for 5 minutes, to get infected for example, compared to 10 minute previously, you will find that 5 minute close proximity meetings happen more then twice as often as 10 minute ones do. Just for an example. Since the longer time meetings are so much more rare then shorter ones, and are the ones to cause the more severe infections, a larger number of milder infections will be the end result of a more infectious virus. Plus, milder primary infections usually will lead to more milder secondary infections as well.
> 
> When you combine both further distances and shorter time exposures and its effect on the secondary infections from those infections, you can hopefully see why it infected close to 850 million people in India, in just 3 or 4 months, and no where near 8.5 million people died. Most of those infections would end up being fairly mild, but as we saw in the news, certainly not all of them.


Yes, it requires a lower viral load to get infected which is why it's more infectious. But that doesn't mean necessarily mean that it's milder. There's no indication that the death rate is less than the original alpha, in fact preliminary studies indicate that it is higher: How deadly is the coronavirus delta variant?. From CDC:

*Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous variants in unvaccinated*_ *people*. In two different studies from Canada and Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients infected with Alpha or the original virus that causes COVID-19. Even so, the vast majority of hospitalization and death caused by COVID-19 are in unvaccinated people._

I'm not sure where you're getting the 8.5 million people died in India. There's speculation that it is in the millions, and part of the reason is that many of the people die at home and never get tested or enter the hospital system to get counted as a covid death: Covid May Have Claimed as Many as 5 Million Lives in India
For example, from the article:
_The eastern state of Bihar saw nearly 75,000 unexplained deaths in the first five months of 2021, most during the deadly second wave of the pandemic. That represents almost 10 times the state’s official Covid death figure, the news channel NDTV reported._
75k unexplained deaths is pretty high, and wasn't counted in the covid count. Is it likely all are covid-related? Maybe not, but a large portion probably are.


----------



## james4beach

There are virtually NIL fully vaccinated people under age 60 (or so) who end up in hospital.

But holy cow, look at this difference between hospitalization rates. Notice for example that a fully vaccinated 50 year old virtually never ends up in hospital, whereas the hospitalization rate for an unvaccinated 50 year old is *74x as high*.


----------



## andrewf

Indeed. It is crazy for people to refuse to get vaccinated, especially with Delta. It is not a matter of if but when you get infected.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> View attachment 22093


Now that chart alone tells the story. 
They have one for deaths as well?


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Yes, it requires a lower viral load to get infected which is why it's more infectious. But that doesn't mean necessarily mean that it's milder. There's no indication that the death rate is less than the original alpha, in fact preliminary studies indicate that it is higher: How deadly is the coronavirus delta variant?. From CDC:
> 
> *Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous variants in unvaccinated*_ *people*. In two different studies from Canada and Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients infected with Alpha or the original virus that causes COVID-19. Even so, the vast majority of hospitalization and death caused by COVID-19 are in unvaccinated people._
> 
> I'm not sure where you're getting the 8.5 million people died in India. There's speculation that it is in the millions, and part of the reason is that many of the people die at home and never get tested or enter the hospital system to get counted as a covid death: Covid May Have Claimed as Many as 5 Million Lives in India
> For example, from the article:
> _The eastern state of Bihar saw nearly 75,000 unexplained deaths in the first five months of 2021, most during the deadly second wave of the pandemic. That represents almost 10 times the state’s official Covid death figure, the news channel NDTV reported._
> 75k unexplained deaths is pretty high, and wasn't counted in the covid count. Is it likely all are covid-related? Maybe not, but a large portion probably are.


If you take the exact same situations (time of exposure, distance, etc.) that caused the infections with the previous virus, that same situation, will end in a more severe outcome with the Delta. I have continuously said, that this is a very dangerous virus that for the unvaccinated will create more deaths then previous variants.

However, because the variant is also more infectious, by a factor of about 5 times, *the vast majority of those additional infections will be very mild ones.* No one knows about the mild ones, because no one goes to get tested for them, especially in India. OK. So your news briefs and reports will not be factoring them in. They are out there, just like they were out there for previous variants, but with the Delta they will happen in much larger numbers. It is just the mathematics of airborne viruses.

As for India and the 2/3rds of the country with Covid antibodies, just google it.

I am going to leave it at that. I think everyone knows what I am trying to say. Whether anyone agrees with it or not makes little difference. I will either be right and everyone will eventually see what I am talking about, because as I said, we cannot stop this anymore, or I will be wrong and to argue it more will not help my position any. So, hopefully I have answered your questions. It is nice to see someone interested in going beyond just the number of infections and looking closer at how those infections actually happen and the important differences between them.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> As for India and the 2/3rds of the country with Covid antibodies, just google it.


That's a big extrapolation from only 29,000 tests to over a billion actual people ... wonder what the margin of error is on that.


----------



## damian13ster

The new C.1.2 COVID-19 variant ‘does not appear’ to be spreading, WHO says - National | Globalnews.ca


"It does not appear to be increasing in circulation," said a WHO spokesperson, who also added that the variant was also not classified yet as a "variant of concern."




globalnews.ca


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> That's a big extrapolation from only 29,000 tests to over a billion actual people ... wonder what the margin of error is on that.


Probably pretty high. It's the magnitude of it that one wants to focus on, not exactness. The point is that it certainly illustrates that the vast majority of their actual infections were asymptomatic and very, very mild. It always has been that way. We know, even if we just look at the "known" recorded infections, that the majority of them are mild, then there are a few less then that of moderate, then a few less then that of severe/hospitalized, then a much smaller number of infections are so severe the person dies. So the majority of infections were never severe.

What I am trying to point out, and with the older variant, we have had numerous studies on this, is that for every infection we tested for and knew about, there were probably around 3 that went unnoticed, because for the most part the infected did not even know they had it, so they did not get tested.

What I am trying to say in my last few posts, is that with the Delta variant that number that was multiplied by 3, with the other variants, should be much higher, with the Delta. Probably a multiplier in the range of about 10, but one can't be exact on that, but one can know it is much higher.

So in Ontario yesterday we had around 700 recorded infections. I believe we probably had somewhere in the order of 7,000 infections yesterday, plus or minus a few thousand. That number will vary dramatically, and is almost impossible to lockdown precisely. Also, during the warmer months the majority of all infections, known and unknown, will be milder, but when we go indoors the ratio of severe to mild will increase.

Lastly, we need to superimpose vaccination, on top of all that above. The above explained how infections happen for the unvaccinated. The vaccine now pushes more and more of them into the milder category. *Because of those two concepts, the distribution of the severity of all the infections themselves, combined with the efficacy of the vaccine, one should be able to see that the teeth of this virus has been dulled considerably, *especially if we meet it outside or for short time intervals inside. In those environments you really should remove your mask, get some very mild exposure, and boost your immune system into something that can handle anything this mutation or any mutation in the future will throw at you. I can't guarantee all that, but it is your best option...and soon everyone will see that it is your only option.


----------



## OptsyEagle

OptsyEagle said:


> In those environments you really should remove your mask, get some very mild exposure, and boost your immune system into something that can handle anything this mutation or any mutation in the future will throw at you. I can't guarantee all that, but it is your best option...and soon everyone will see that it is your only option.


I will add one more comment to what I suggest above and that is we are starting to see the beginning of this already. I posted some articles on some well qualified people starting to suggest this very thing. More importantly, various jurisdictions are starting to come to the same conclusion as evidenced by their changes to testing for Covid-19.

I believe France and Germany have both implemented a "test only the very sick" rule and any other tests people want will have a fee attached to them. So no more free testing for covid-19. If I recall, Jason Kenney in Alberta changed their approach to only testing the very sick, or more importantly, not testing the mild or asymptomatic infections. If I also recall, even if you were positive, Mr. Kenney took away the need to self-isolate.

Now ask yourself, why would they do this? Many will wrongly jump to a conspiracy theory, something like hiding their bad decisions, or stupidity, yada, yada, yada. That is not it. They have most likely concluded, as have I, that Covid-19 is now, and for a very long time in our futures, become endemic in our society. If it is endemic, then it means we will all eventually be exposed to it. So, what would be the purpose to test a person who is not severely sick? In the old days we would worry that this positive case going out and infecting others, but in an endemic society, that cannot be stopped anyway and will probably end in a positive outcome via a stronger immunity for most people infected. They have identified that a mild or asymptomatic case of covid has stopped being something to worry us, and now has become simply a positive natural inoculation for the lucky ones to have obtained it...and really nothing more then that.

So reduced testing will be your first sign of what I am talking about. There will be more changes but probably the reduction in other covid precautions will come about after the colder weather leaves us.


----------



## sags

If your theory is the plan Alberta and Saskatchewan are using.......it isn't working very well. Their cases are out of control and hospitals on the edge of collapse.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-western-provinces-covid-case-growth-1.6160025


----------



## kellanfaraday

james4beach said:


> There are virtually NIL fully vaccinated people under age 60 (or so) who end up in hospital.
> 
> But holy cow, look at this difference between hospitalization rates. Notice for example that a fully vaccinated 50 year old virtually never ends up in hospital, whereas the hospitalization rate for an unvaccinated 50 year old is *74x as high*.
> 
> 
> View attachment 22093


The delta variant is just alarming. That surge is crazy!!


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> If your theory is the plan Alberta and Saskatchewan are using.......it isn't working very well. Their cases are out of control and hospitals on the edge of collapse.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-western-provinces-covid-case-growth-1.6160025


It's more the reality Alberta and Saskatchewan are facing up to. The rest will follow. They have no choice. They will probably attempt to delay until Spring and then it is full on. Not much else can be done.

As for us, we can prepare. That is my best suggestion.


----------



## damian13ster

The case count in Alberta has been falling since friday. Let's see if that case continues.
Still less than 4% of hospital places are taken by COVID. 86% taken by other patients, about 10% still empty.
We are fine and dandy over here. Turn off the TV, walk outside, see for yourself


----------



## Beaver101

Re link (from CBC.ca) in post #6053 and post #6,056, both news dated today September 1st, 2021 (today), who do we believe? A major news outlet or some anonymous poster babbling on a forum?


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> It's more the reality Alberta and Saskatchewan are facing up to. The rest will follow. They have no choice.


There are always choices, all depends on the numbers they will have. MB starts the "fully vaxed club" in 2 days so we'll see how that goes.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> It's more the reality Alberta and Saskatchewan are facing up to. The rest will follow. They have no choice. They will probably attempt to delay until Spring and then it is full on. Not much else can be done.
> 
> *As for us, we can prepare. * That is my best suggestion.


 ... such as? Unmasking and mingling with a crowd of strangers? Have you tried that yet or whatever your own best suggestion is which is????!


----------



## sags

I think damian13ster has his graphs upside down.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> Re link (from CBC.ca) in post #6053 and post #6,056, both news dated today September 1st, 2021 (today), who do we believe? A major news outlet or some anonymous poster babbling on a forum?


How about official Alberta Health Care statistics?
All my information is directly from there.
Not from opinion pieces or commentaries.

Unless you of course believe journalists more than health care officials. Up to you

The peak in cases was on friday for now.
The hospitalization numbers are also directly on alberta health website.
They are likely to increase for next two weeks since they lag case numbers.
Hospital Capacity is still there though. Hospitalizations can more than double and we will still be fine


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> How about official Alberta Health Care statistics?
> All my information is directly from there.
> Not from opinion pieces or commentaries.
> 
> The peak in cases was on friday for now.
> The hospitalization numbers are also directly on alberta health website


 .. not when you just say so ... post it. It'll be a "miracle' those numbers don't spike up in the upcoming days.

Moreover, why am I not surprised that you aren't practicing your own opinionated advice "_We are fine and dandy over here. Turn off the TV, walk outside, see for yoursel_f." instead of constantly on this forum like 22hrs /7days spreading misinformation or those "facts" of yours.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> I think damian13ster has his graphs upside down.


 ... that or being a jerk.


----------



## damian13ster

Not misinformation, facts.
Easily verifiable. Just go to official health website for alberta yourself to check it out rather than trusting headlines.


----------



## sags

Why would anyone trust the data from a government that is in hiding from the public and refuse to make the data they used to remove restrictions public ?


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> ... that or being a jerk.


Reading a graph is hard.....


----------



## OptsyEagle

Beaver101 said:


> ... such as? Unmasking and mingling with a crowd of strangers? Have you tried that yet or whatever your own best suggestion is which is????!


as often as I can, when I am outdoors.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Not misinformation, facts.
> Easily verifiable. Just go to official health website for alberta yourself to check it out rather than trusting headlines.
> 
> View attachment 22094
> 
> 
> View attachment 22095


 ... where are the data from August 15? Today is September 1st of which the cbc.ca news article is based on.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> as often as I can, when I am outdoors.


 ... such as 1 hour per day by yourself? Is that how we are 
to prepare"? ... trying to get ourselves "infected" "as safely as possible"? LMAO.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> There are always choices, all depends on the numbers they will have. MB starts the "fully vaxed club" in 2 days so we'll see how that goes.


Of course, everyone has choices. I am just trying to let everyone know about what they are actually choosing, when they do make their choice. If they just think they can choose between avoiding the virus or be exposed to it, they are dreaming. They can choose to delay being exposed to it, but it is going to get harder and harder as more of their friends and family effectively start choosing the opposite, by way of their socializing behavior, and our leaders start to see the writing on the wall and pivot to get positioned better for that. Add to that a possible waning immunity and/or a more severe mutation in the future and they may very well find their choice to delay was the wrong one.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Why would anyone trust the data from a government that is in hiding from the public and refuse to make the data they used to remove restrictions public ?


 ... let's give them benefit of the doubt that the data published (as per diaminxxster's post) is accurate. However, diaminxxster's interpretation/presentation ain't.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... where are the data from August 15? Today is September 1st of which the cbc.ca news article is based on.


And who was making a comment about not being able to read a graph? 
Hint: there isn't just two data points: Aug 1 and Aug 15 per month.
They will probably add a label tomorrow for Aug 29. Data is already there, simply legend hasn't been updated.
I guess they assumed people in general can read graphs so they don't have to list every single day in an axis label. Clearly that was poor assumption.

That's the beauty of dealing with facts and data and not opinion pieces. There is no intepretation.
Facts are that COVID cases take up small part of hospital beds and we have enough free beds to more than double COVID hospitalizations without running out.
Those are pure numbers and data, not interpretation.
Alberta has capacity to raise ICU beds to at least minimum 270 (they have done that this year). We are at 200 yet. There is plenty of capacity if needed. 
Not interpretation - data and facts


----------



## OptsyEagle

Beaver101 said:


> ... such as 1 hour per day by yourself? Is that how we are
> to prepare"? ... trying to get ourselves "infected" "as safely as possible"? LMAO.


You do it by going on with your life. You certainly do not gain anything by running away and hiding, hoping that this virus will fizzle away on its own.

This virus is not dangerous to anyone in good health who has been fully vaccinated, especially if they are outside or keep their indoor activities short. If you are lucky enough to get some exposure during those situations, you will be all the better for it, in the future, but one way or the other we are all going to get exposed.


----------



## andrewf

OptsyEagle said:


> It's more the reality Alberta and Saskatchewan are facing up to. The rest will follow. They have no choice. They will probably attempt to delay until Spring and then it is full on. Not much else can be done.
> 
> As for us, we can prepare. That is my best suggestion.


I know you have been banging the drum of ignore cases and focus on hospitalizations, but if hospitalizations are accelerating, we do need to still do things to pump the brakes on spread. Especially considering we essentially didn't have a flu season last year but will get one this year. Hospitals will be stretched through the winter. With masks/distancing, hopefully we have another mild flu year to help manage the load. If anything, the time to throw things wide open is probably post-winter next year. In the mean time, we should be trying to get kids back in school as first priority, and living with some moderate limitations on crowding and masking until then. Hopefully it will be enough to avoid an explosion in cases/hospitalizations among the unvaccinated.


----------



## Plugging Along

damian13ster said:


> The case count in Alberta has been falling since friday. Let's see if that case continues.
> Still less than 4% of hospital places are taken by COVID. 86% taken by other patients, about 10% still empty.


I follow AB number and my cities number very closely. The case count for yesterday was still 920, yes down from 1000+ for each day over almost the last week, but the R0 value is still over 1 which is a concern as it still will increase exponentially. One day counts don't mean much. Hopefully you are right and the numbers continue to reduce but a single data point is nothing. 

The concerns I do have is that they are starting to reschedule surgeries and other treatments due to COVID in Edmonton. This will lead a a ripple effect again. I would be okay if someone unvaccinated came in with COVID and was triaged as a lower priority over a vaccinated patient who was supposed to go in. I know several people that have had to delay or reschedule treatments due to COVID and this seems so preventable. 



damian13ster said:


> The peak in cases was on friday for now.
> The hospitalization numbers are also directly on alberta health website.
> They are likely to increase for next two weeks since they lag case numbers.
> Hospital Capacity is still there though. Hospitalizations can more than double and we will still be fine


Because Hospitalization and ICU numbers are a lag indicator, it is important to look at the other indications first. If the hospitals hit capacity and then things are done, people are in a lot of trouble, it takes weeks of restrictions before you can get the numbers down again.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> This virus is not dangerous to anyone in good health who has been fully vaccinated, especially if they are outside or keep their indoor activities short.


And a fairly large number of people have comorbidities, especially as people get older.


----------



## damian13ster

Plugging Along said:


> I follow AB number and my cities number very closely. The case count for yesterday was still 920, yes down from 1000+ for each day over almost the last week, but the R0 value is still over 1 which is a concern as it still will increase exponentially. One day counts don't mean much. Hopefully you are right and the numbers continue to reduce but a single data point is nothing.
> 
> The concerns I do have is that they are starting to reschedule surgeries and other treatments due to COVID in Edmonton. This will lead a a ripple effect again. I would be okay if someone unvaccinated came in with COVID and was triaged as a lower priority over a vaccinated patient who was supposed to go in. I know several people that have had to delay or reschedule treatments due to COVID and this seems so preventable.
> 
> 
> 
> Because Hospitalization and ICU numbers are a lag indicator, it is important to look at the other indications first. If the hospitals hit capacity and then things are done, people are in a lot of trouble, it takes weeks of restrictions before you can get the numbers down again.


It isn't a one day count. For past 3 days we were at below 7 day average for cases. Whether that will continue? Who knows, not a fortunte-teller. But we are on a downtrend since then.

And yes, I am aware hospitalizations are lag indicator. That's why in previous post I have mentioned they will probably keep rising for another 2 weeks or so.
But with the cases now dropping (as of now) then it should be around 2 weeks until hospitalizations start dropping too.
And since we have spare capacity for more than double the hospitalizations, things are looking good


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> I know you have been banging the drum of ignore cases and focus on hospitalizations, but if hospitalizations are accelerating, we do need to still do things to pump the brakes on spread. Especially considering we essentially didn't have a flu season last year but will get one this year. Hospitals will be stretched through the winter. With masks/distancing, hopefully we have another mild flu year to help manage the load. If anything, the time to throw things wide open is probably post-winter next year. In the mean time, we should be trying to get kids back in school as first priority, and living with some moderate limitations on crowding and masking until then. Hopefully it will be enough to avoid an explosion in cases/hospitalizations among the unvaccinated.


I don't have an argument with that but I am quite skeptical on our ability to control the rise in severe cases, mostly with the unvaccinated. Without attempting to control private socializing, their efforts IMO will be insignificant to the problem you are highlighting. As for attempting to control private socializing. That becomes a difficult row to hoe for a couple reasons:

1) Will our vaccinated citizen's actually do what is asked of them. They did not respond favorably in the past because they were law abiding citizens, they did it because deep down in they were afraid of the virus. They are not afraid anymore because it isn't overly dangerous to the vast majority of vaccinated people.

2) The only way to control the above is to scare them into it. Whether we want to argue about the efficacy of the vaccine or not, whatever they might do here will appear as if the vaccines don't work very well. That will not increase the number of unvaccinated people to get the vaccine. Since our hospital problem is mainly coming from the unvaccinated, you should be able to see that this effort would backfire.

So, although I am in agreement with just about anything that protects our hospitals, I am not enthused with our prospect to be able to do so. Hence we need to prepare for this, not rely on efforts that worked fairly well in the past but will not work nearly as well in the future.


----------



## Plugging Along

OptsyEagle said:


> I believe France and Germany have both implemented a "test only the very sick" rule and any other tests people want will have a fee attached to them. So no more free testing for covid-19. If I recall, Jason Kenney in Alberta changed their approach to only testing the very sick, or more importantly, not testing the mild or asymptomatic infections. If I also recall, even if you were positive, Mr. Kenney took away the need to self-isolate.
> 
> Now ask yourself, why would they do this? Many will wrongly jump to a conspiracy theory, something like hiding their bad decisions, or stupidity, yada, yada, yada. That is not it. They have most likely concluded, as have I, that Covid-19 is now, and for a very long time in our futures, become endemic in our society. If it is endemic, then it means we will all eventually be exposed to it. So, what would be the purpose to test a person who is not severely sick? In the old days we would worry that this positive case going out and infecting others, but in an endemic society, that cannot be stopped anyway and will probably end in a positive outcome via a stronger immunity for most people infected. They have identified that a mild or asymptomatic case of covid has stopped being something to worry us, and now has become simply a positive natural inoculation for the lucky ones to have obtained it...and really nothing more then that.
> 
> So reduced testing will be your first sign of what I am talking about. There will be more changes but probably the reduction in other covid precautions will come about after the colder weather leaves us.


They have rescinded this in Alberta. If one asks why, it's because the government may have made a mistake in lifting all the restrictions too soon. I personally think that someone (or province) needs to make the first move in learning to live with the virus for the endemic. However, it was a great jump to just say the Alberta is open and have a Stampede and pretend its over without any precautions, testing, contact testing, etc. 

The Stampede event was pretty well done and safe. I went myself and thought it was really safe. However, opening the Stampede sent the message everything is fine and all caution can be lifted. This lead to more partying, no masking, and large groups outside of the Stampede. That's where a lot of spread happened. I know many people who didn't go to the Stampede for safety, but then decided to attend parties indoors. There should have been more messaging that caution still needs to be taken. I would have liked to see slightly lower capacities, masking indoors (even if its for show because you are eating and drinking, it sends a message), social distancing where possible.

I think they should have waiting for more people to be fully vaccinated before opening things up. The vaccine rates aren't awful in the larger cities, it's the smaller and rural areas that have lower rates. I think if there was more of an incentive for vaccine (admission into events, passports, etc), we would have more kids and young people vaccinated for school, which is a huge concern as my kid enters a school with 2400 kids in 3 grades. 

The whole point of the lock downs was to ensure we don't overwhelm the healthcare system while trying to find a vaccine. Now we have the vaccine, the focus should be incenting more people to get vaccinated, as they are the ones taking up hospital space. This should be the end goal. 

I agree with opening things up, and sending kids to school, but I think it should be done safely. Testing allows valuable information for indicators of increase or decrease of case before they end up in the hospital. It also has a preventative measure by allow people not to infect others. AB is still testing but only because it is indicating that things can become bad again.

Side note: I have taken comments regarding not masking outdoors, and it seems to make alot of sense in many ways. We are trying to figure out when we mask or don't mask. Outdoors where we can distance or arent with people we know makes sense. If I was at a large outdoor concert or something that I had to sit beside someone I don't know, I may still mask.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Plugging Along said:


> They have rescinded this in Alberta. If one asks why, it's because the government may have made a mistake in lifting all the restrictions too soon. I personally think that someone (or province) needs to make the first move in learning to live with the virus for the endemic. However, it was a great jump to just say the Alberta is open and have a Stampede and pretend its over without any precautions, testing, contact testing, etc.
> 
> The Stampede event was pretty well done and safe. I went myself and thought it was really safe. However, opening the Stampede sent the message everything is fine and all caution can be lifted. This lead to more partying, no masking, and large groups outside of the Stampede. That's where a lot of spread happened. I know many people who didn't go to the Stampede for safety, but then decided to attend parties indoors. There should have been more messaging that caution still needs to be taken. I would have liked to see slightly lower capacities, masking indoors (even if its for show because you are eating and drinking, it sends a message), social distancing where possible.
> 
> I think they should have waiting for more people to be fully vaccinated before opening things up. The vaccine rates aren't awful in the larger cities, it's the smaller and rural areas that have lower rates. I think if there was more of an incentive for vaccine (admission into events, passports, etc), we would have more kids and young people vaccinated for school, which is a huge concern as my kid enters a school with 2400 kids in 3 grades.
> 
> The whole point of the lock downs was to ensure we don't overwhelm the healthcare system while trying to find a vaccine. Now we have the vaccine, the focus should be incenting more people to get vaccinated, as they are the ones taking up hospital space. This should be the end goal.
> 
> I agree with opening things up, and sending kids to school, but I think it should be done safely. Testing allows valuable information for indicators of increase or decrease of case before they end up in the hospital. It also has a preventative measure by allow people not to infect others. AB is still testing but only because it is indicating that things can become bad again.
> 
> Side note: I have taken comments regarding not masking outdoors, and it seems to make alot of sense in many ways. We are trying to figure out when we mask or don't mask. Outdoors where we can distance or arent with people we know makes sense. If I was at a large outdoor concert or something that I had to sit beside someone I don't know, I may still mask.


I can't dispute your arguments except that I doubt opening up the Stampede was that significant to everyone partying and socializing again. I believe the very good efficacy of the vaccine, combined with the pent up demand was the reason for that...but neither of us can prove that, one way or the other, and it probably does not matter that much, at this time.

I don't have the answer for the precise right time to face this virus. Obviously more vaccinated would be better then less. Will we get the number that makes us feel ready, I don't know. I would love to wait until Spring, to give us more time with warmer weather, etc., to move forward in getting the exposures we will need, but that wait is not without issues. 1st, unless we figure out how to stop the socializing, we are simply not waiting. Whatever restrictions Mr. Kenney could put in place, for example, will not work unless people stop socializing. As I said above, I am skeptical about our ability to stem that. 2nd, our next spring is about 8 months away. I worry about waning vaccine efficacy. I worry about mutating viruses. I am not sure we will ever be as strong to face this virus as we are today.

Anyway, unless the socializing is stemmed this discussion is kind of mute. That activity will most likely force the majority of us to face this virus. The Delta is just too infectious to stay away from that many parties and family get togethers.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> And who was making a comment about not being able to read a graph?
> Hint: there isn't just two data points: Aug 1 and Aug 15 per month.
> They will probably add a label tomorrow for Aug 29. Data is already there, simply legend hasn't been updated.
> I guess they assumed people in general can read graphs so they don't have to list every single day in an axis label. Clearly that was poor assumption.
> 
> That's the beauty of dealing with facts and data and not opinion pieces. There is no intepretation.
> Facts are that COVID cases take up small part of hospital beds and we have enough free beds to more than double COVID hospitalizations without running out.
> Those are pure numbers and data, not interpretation.
> Alberta has capacity to raise ICU beds to at least minimum 270 (they have done that this year). We are at 200 yet. There is plenty of capacity if needed.
> Not interpretation - data and facts


Too bad beds are the easy part. Having nurses is the more difficult part. Remember your comment about forcing health care workers to work overtime? Likely to happen if cases continue to rise as indicated by the increased percentage of ICU beds used for covid. Of course, by increasing the number of beds, it means a percentage of ICU occupied by covid patients should decrease if patient numbers stay static, but the fact that both are increasing indicates that there are more patients in ICU for covid.








COVID-19: Nurses may be recalled as ICU, ERs in Edmonton and South Zone under pressure, Alberta's hospitalizations pass 200


Alberta Health Services (AHS) warned the nurses’ union that staff may be recalled from vacation to help overtaxed intensive care units and emergency…




edmontonjournal.com


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> Too bad beds are the easy part. Having nurses is the more difficult part. Remember your comment about forcing health care workers to work overtime? Likely to happen if cases continue to rise as indicated by the increased percentage of ICU beds used for covid. Of course, by increasing the number of beds, it means a percentage of ICU occupied by covid patients should decrease if patient numbers stay static, but the fact that both are increasing indicates that there are more patients in ICU for covid.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19: Nurses may be recalled as ICU, ERs in Edmonton and South Zone under pressure, Alberta's hospitalizations pass 200
> 
> 
> Alberta Health Services (AHS) warned the nurses’ union that staff may be recalled from vacation to help overtaxed intensive care units and emergency…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edmontonjournal.com


More compared to what? A week ago? Yes.
Previous waves? No.
We are in much better situation than we were before. And yes, there might be OT for healthcare workers. Luckily unless a downtrend in cases reverses, it looks like in less then two weeks the numbers for hospitals will also start to drop. There is really no reason to panic as we are in much better shape than during previous waves despite lack of restrictions.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> MB starts the "fully vaxed club" in 2 days so we'll see how that goes.


How do things change then? I left the province before that so I had not really heard about this, but I might come back into MB in a couple months.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> How do things change then? I left the province before that so I had not really heard about this, but I might come back into MB in a couple months.


Many indoor (and some outdoor) places like resturaunts, movies, sporting events, etc, will only allow fully vaxed people starting Friday Sept 3rd.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> Many indoor (and some outdoor) places like resturaunts, movies, sporting events, etc, will only allow fully vaxed people starting Friday Sept 3rd.


Interesting, thanks.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> More compared to what? A week ago? Yes.
> Previous waves? No.
> We are in much better situation than we were before. And yes, there might be OT for healthcare workers. Luckily unless a downtrend in cases reverses, it looks like in less then two weeks the numbers for hospitals will also start to drop. There is really no reason to panic as we are in much better shape than during previous waves despite lack of restrictions.


Given that we're talking about the start of the increase, it's a little early to say that it's not going to hit similar percentages as of previous waves. If it drops and remains steady, fine, but if it keeps going up, then no. Here's the other thing. We're actually comparing the situation to previous waves which we shouldn't based on the fact that the vaccination status is significantly different.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> Given that we're talking about the start of the increase, it's a little early to say that it's not going to hit similar percentages as of previous waves. If it drops and remains steady, fine, but if it keeps going up, then no. Here's the other thing. We're actually comparing the situation to previous waves which we shouldn't based on the fact that the vaccination status is significantly different.


Exactly! That's why we don't need same restrictions as during previous waves. Vaccination status is significantly different


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> Exactly! That's why we don't need same restrictions as during previous waves. Vaccination status is significantly different


I think you missed my point. The fact that we may reach numbers as previous waves despite having a somewhat high vaccination status is an issue. Of course, it's due mainly to unvaccinated, so I guess we can wait it out and let them go with the natural selection route.


----------



## bgc_fan

I was thinking about Fox News, and anti-vax types... there is a whole freedom of speech thing in the US, so you can't really stop them from spreading misinformation. Lawsuits may be another route, but without standing it's hard to have them, and then it looks like a transparent way to shut them up. Here's another route: bill them for the cost of treating unvaccinated covid patients, retroactively from July/August when there has been a surplus of vaccines. From Kaiser Family Foundation, they estimate it costs $20k to treat a covid patient, so with approx 113k unvaccinated patients in June/July, that's a bill of $2.3B. Maybe only then they'll stop with their anti-vax nonsense, since there's a pretty direct line of anti-vaxxers feeding off of Fox News.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> I was thinking about Fox News, and anti-vax types... there is a whole freedom of speech thing in the US, so you can't really stop them from spreading misinformation. Lawsuits may be another route, but without standing it's hard to have them, and then it looks like a transparent way to shut them up. Here's another route: bill them for the cost of treating unvaccinated covid patients, retroactively from July/August when there has been a surplus of vaccines. From Kaiser Family Foundation, they estimate it costs $20k to treat a covid patient, so with approx 113k unvaccinated patients in June/July, that's a bill of $2.3B. Maybe only then they'll stop with their anti-vax nonsense, since there's a pretty direct line of anti-vaxxers feeding off of Fox News.


There is significantly simpler solution to that.
Privatize health care. Then people's premium would be based on their behavior. Let's protect pre-existing conditions and you have exactly what you wanted.
Can't believe how many people are against socialized health care system here based on the posts.
I am all for individual accountability - let's do it!


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> There is significantly simpler solution to that.
> Privatize health care. Then people's premium would be based on their behavior. Let's protect pre-existing conditions and you have exactly what you wanted.
> Can't believe how many people are against socialized health care system here based on the posts.
> I am all for individual accountability - let's do it!


I'm talking about the US. It hasn't done anything for them.


----------



## sags

I read some of the r/nurse reddit and wish I hadn't now. There were a lot of posts from nurses and doctors in Florida, Texas,

The nurses and doctors are posting what happens to people in the ICUs, and it is beyond horrific.

I think people think of "hospitalizations and ICUs" as just laying back and getting some oxygen for awhile.

That isn't even close to the interventions they are doing.

I won't even describe it here.....but for cripes sakes people.....hospitalizations and ICUs are NOT a reasonable outcome.

Most people in the ICUs either die a terrible death or have severe long term problems. Some may wish they had died.

This covid seems weird. One minute the patient is looking stable and good and the next they have had a heart attack or can't breathe.

The docs and nurses race from patient to patient trying to keep them alive. Their efforts cause a great deal of long term damage to the patients.

Do what you gotta do to avoid getting infected...........end of story.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> Do what you gotta do to avoid getting infected...........end of story.


 ... that's not what the financial advisor-turned-virologist on this forum says. Anyhow, you're freaking these readers out with these "dream" stories/posts.


----------



## sags

Popular podcaster Joe Rogan has Covid.

He has previously said the symptoms of covid are nothing to worry about, but now that he has it...he has taken every medicine and treatment possible including the horse de-wormer drug Invermectin. He also listed monoclonal antibodies, prednisone, and a couple of IV vitamin drips.

A doctor just shook his head and said there are very unpleasant side effects from that drug.

Let's just say he shouldn't leave home for awhile. At least he won't have to worry about livestock worms.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Popular podcaster Joe Rogan has Covid.
> 
> He has previously said the symptoms of covid are nothing to worry about, but now that he has it...he has taken every medicine and treatment possible including the horse de-wormer drug Invermectin.
> 
> A doctor just shook his head and said there are very unpleasant side effects from that drug.
> 
> Let's just say he shouldn't leave home for awhile. At least he won't have to worry about livestock worms.


"He said he had one bad day on Sunday and that he is already feeling much better.

“A wonderful heartfelt thank you to modern medicine for pulling me out of this so quickly and easily,” he said, though ivermectin is not endorsed by modern medicine."

Looks like he is back on his feet according to global news article


----------



## damian13ster

Sydney is in full on lockdown for 11 weeks now.
People aren't allowed to leave their houses other than groceries and work, and have to be within 5km of their homes.
People getting arrested for being in the parks.

Every single day they continue to beat record numbers in COVID cases. 
Not much fizzling out going on there


----------



## damian13ster

Sweden -0.4% excess deaths in 2020
Canada 5% excess deaths in 2020

Between January and mid-December 2020, an estimated 296,373 people lost their lives across the country, which is five per cent (13,798) more deaths than expected in that period had there been no pandemic, and seven per cent more than in 2019.

Excess mortality reflects data on the number of deaths that exceed what is considered normal during a given period. Throughout the pandemic, some countries have used this as an indicator that the actual death toll related to the coronavirus is much higher than official tallies.


Sweden has been golden example on how to handle the pandemic.
Canadian government, through its actions, needlessly killed its citizens

Interestingly, in 2H2020 excess deaths among U45 were 19%.
Canadian government through their actions needlessly killed young citizens.








The toll on two countries: excess deaths in Canada, U.S. | Investment Executive


Covid-19 isn't the only reason for elevated death rates in 2020, Statistics Canada reports




www.investmentexecutive.com


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> Sweden -0.4% excess deaths in 2020
> Canada 5% excess deaths in 2020
> 
> Between January and mid-December 2020, an estimated 296,373 people lost their lives across the country, which is five per cent (13,798) more deaths than expected in that period had there been no pandemic, and seven per cent more than in 2019.
> 
> Excess mortality reflects data on the number of deaths that exceed what is considered normal during a given period. Throughout the pandemic, some countries have used this as an indicator that the actual death toll related to the coronavirus is much higher than official tallies.
> 
> 
> Sweden has been golden example on how to handle the pandemic.
> Canadian government, through its actions, needlessly killed its citizens
> 
> Interestingly, in 2H2020 excess deaths among U45 were 19%.
> Canadian government through their actions needlessly killed young citizens.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The toll on two countries: excess deaths in Canada, U.S. | Investment Executive
> 
> 
> Covid-19 isn't the only reason for elevated death rates in 2020, Statistics Canada reports
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.investmentexecutive.com


Where did you get that for Sweden?
This article states 7.7% INCREASE in excess deaths: Sweden saw lower 2020 death spike than much of Europe - data, the highest in all the Scandinavian countries.
Here's another source showing that they had the highest: Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries

It is pretty evident that what Sweden did was worse than similar countries like Norway and Finland. Norway had 0% increase, and they had the strongest measures of those countries.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Popular podcaster Joe Rogan has Covid.
> 
> He has previously said the symptoms of covid are nothing to worry about, but now that he has it...he has taken every medicine and treatment possible including the horse de-wormer drug Invermectin. He also listed monoclonal antibodies, prednisone, and a couple of IV vitamin drips.
> 
> A doctor just shook his head and said there are very unpleasant side effects from that drug.
> 
> Let's just say he shouldn't leave home for awhile. At least he won't have to worry about livestock worms.


I wish people would be a bit more balanced about ivermectin. It is a drug approved for use in humans for certain indications--it is a human drug. Don't take drugs without advice of a physician and definitely don't buy your drugs at a feed store!


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> "He said he had one bad day on Sunday and that he is already feeling much better.
> 
> “A wonderful heartfelt thank you to modern medicine for pulling me out of this so quickly and easily,” he said, though ivermectin is not endorsed by modern medicine."
> 
> Looks like he is back on his feet according to global news article


Kind of bizarre that he apparently refused the vaccine despite it being safer than infection, and then proceeded to take a whole pharmacy worth of interventions of perhaps dubious medical value. Is he acting as his own physician?


----------



## damian13ster

andrewf said:


> Kind of bizarre that he apparently refused the vaccine despite it being safer than infection, and then proceeded to take a whole pharmacy worth of interventions of perhaps dubious medical value. Is he acting as his own physician?


I have no idea what he is doing. Never talked with the guy, never checked his health records.
It looks like he got through the infection without issues - happy for him. 
Maybe for him vaccine would be less safe than infection, who knows. Pure speculation.
Just glad he went through it with no problems and wish everyone the same


----------



## sags

The Mu variant has arrived in North America from Columbia, where it spread rapidly.

_Speaking of Mu Fauci said, “*This variant has a constellation of mutations that suggests that it would evade certain antibodies, not only monoclonal antibodies, but vaccine- and convalescent serum-induced antibodies*…But there isn’t a lot of clinical data to suggest that. It is mostly laboratory in-vitro data.” _









Mu Covid Variant: Los Angeles Officials Say First Cases Of New Strain Have Arrived


Dr. Anthony Fauci on Thursday said U.S. public health officials are “keeping a very close eye” on a new variant of Covid-19 that was first detected in Colombia. Known as B.1.621 or the …




deadline.com


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> The Mu variant has arrived in North America from Columbia, where it spread rapidly.


By the time they detect a variant in Canada, it has probably been here for months.

This is another important reason to keep wearing a mask, and avoiding crowded gatherings, even if you're vaccinated. The pandemic is an evolving situation, and we don't know how new variants might behave.

It's prudent to wear masks to reduce one's chances of picking up the virus. Don't get this idea that you are invincible, or that the pandemic is "over" just because you're vaccinated.

Eventually the pandemic will be over, but not yet. These things don't last forever.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> By the time they detect a variant in Canada, it has probably been here for months.
> 
> This is another important reason to keep wearing a mask, and avoiding crowded gatherings, even if you're vaccinated. The pandemic is an evolving situation, and we don't know how new variants might behave.
> 
> It's prudent to wear masks to reduce one's chances of picking up the virus. Don't get this idea that you are invincible, or that the pandemic is "over" just because you're vaccinated.
> 
> Eventually the pandemic will be over, but not yet. These things don't last forever.


The problem with all this "vaccine evading mutations" is that we need to understand that this does not happen where a virus looks at the problem of our newly vaccinated immune system and then designs a new mutation of itself to evade it. What actually happens is our immune systems are so strong that only the vary rare mutation that can evade, gets out and starts transmitting. When or if it does, it will obviously become the dominant strain in the vaccinated world and we will call that a vaccine evading mutation. But it is a random event of virus evolution that makes this happen.

Now we know that the vaccines provide fairly good immunity and we know natural infection can also provide fairly good immunity and we know that natural immunity plus vaccination provides even better immunity. So with that knowledge, what you should be able to see is that the chances of a random mutation being able to evade our vaccines or natural infection will always be significantly higher then the chance of a random mutation evolving to the level that it would be able to evade immunity that is strengthened by both vaccination and natural infection. It is like making a bigger fence for the kangaroo to jump over. The bigger the better. As the fence gets bigger, less and less kangaroos will be able to get over it.

So while we are currently protecting ourselves from some possible mutation that might evolve and evade our vaccine and of course hit us hard, we are actually offering it more of an ability to do so, by avoiding exposure to the current strains, keeping our fences smaller, so to speak, AND we are giving it plenty of time to do so.


----------



## sags

There is another variant of concern from South Africa that is also a multiple mutation that may evade vaccines.

The virus is deploying a new strategy of multiple ways to defeat our body cells. It is only a matter of time before we have the doomsday virus.

We should lock down and starve the beast, not offer it a buffet dinner.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Can't you guys see that we are basically just wasting some pretty good vaccine by delaying the reopening of our economies. Right now we know the effectiveness of this stuff will protect us from severe illness and death but it is very possible that by next spring it will be about as effective as a glass of fruit punch.

Seems like quite the waste of some good vaccine if you ask me.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Can't you guys see that we are basically just wasting some pretty good vaccine by delaying the reopening of our economies.


Most places are open right now aren't they?


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> Can't you guys see that we are basically just wasting some pretty good vaccine by delaying the reopening of our economies. Right now we know the effectiveness of this stuff will protect us from severe illness and death but it is very possible that by next spring it will be about as effective as a glass of fruit punch.
> 
> Seems like quite the waste of some good vaccine if you ask me.


I'm not clear on what you're suggesting people do, that's different than what's happening.

Around where I live, everyone is partying and socializing. Restaurants and everything are open. Last night when doing laundry in my building, I saw many people in their 20s come in and out without masks (violating the law) as they were bar hopping and partying. I notice around here that once people start drinking, they stop bothering with masks.

If people are able to party and spit on each other, what are they missing? What other part of "normal life" do you want?


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> I'm not clear on what you're suggesting people do, that's different than what's happening.
> 
> Around where I live, everyone is partying and socializing. Restaurants and everything are open. Last night when doing laundry in my building, I saw many people in their 20s come in and out without masks (violating the law) as they were bar hopping and partying.
> 
> Everyone partying and spitting on each other plenty. So what's the problem, what else do you want?


Precisely. These people, who are going to these parties are acting ridiculous. Not necessarily for going to the party, although that needs to be done more carefully. But more for what they did before the party. On the way to that party they decided to stop at the liquor store. They proceeded then to, as you say protect themselves, by putting on a mask. Maintaining a 6 ft distance at the checkout, etc. Then they went to the indoor party.

Now think about that. *All they did was protect themselves from obtaining a very safe exposure to the virus, during their maybe 10 minute visit to the liquor store, and then removed their mask for the very dangerous 3 or 4 hour indoor party.*

Is that what you call being safe? Vigilant? * How many people on this message board have done the exact same thing.* I will replace the party with dinner at your Sister's house, for example. Same thing. * You have no idea who your sister or her husband or their teenage kids, have been in contact with anymore then you know who the guy you briefly passed in the liquor store aisle has been.*

But the liquor store infection has the potential to boost your immunity by very brief safe exposure and the indoor gathering has the potential to send you to the hospital.

That's what I am complaining about. Don't you think that is ridiculous.

So to answer your last question, what I want is for us to stop doing the dangerous activities and embrace the safer ones. We are not doing that. We pretend we are. We point fingers at others, like you just did, but most people here and everywhere else, are no better.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> So to answer your last question, what I want is for us to stop doing the dangerous activities and embrace the safer ones.


Nobody in that age group is thinking ... how can I get a safe exposure, they are just getting on with their lives. Add to that, if they are fully vaxed what's the odds of them going to the hospital ... pretty slim.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Nobody in that age group is thinking ... how can I get a safe exposure, they are just getting on with their lives. Add to that, if they are fully vaxed what's the odds of them going to the hospital ... pretty slim.


That's what I am saying. Many people on this board are not thinking very clearly either.

You see, right now, if I want to start to get some safer, vital exposure to this virus, before it mutates and becomes even more dangerous, I can still do it pretty safely by meeting with my friends and family in an outdoor setting. I have no easy ability to keep my exposures short, when forced indoors. I can't finish a dinner at my sister's house in less then an hour, without being very rude. Soon, when the weather cools I won't even be able to do it outdoors anymore. My choices will be to meet with friends and family in more dangerous environments or wait and possibly watch my immunity fade, either from waning efficacy or new mutating viruses.

Right now we are doing too good of job at preventing the safer infections. The fact that all the dangerous ones, from indoor gatherings, are still being allowed is just adding ridiculous on top of the ridiculous. It is unlikely we are going to get an unlimited amount of time with our vaccine efficacy. I have no idea when the expiry date of its protection will kick in but I would rather get ahead of it, by getting some low level exposure while it is still safe to do so. We are going to need exposure and I cannot think of any better way this winter then quick exposures in places like the liquor store, etc. Masks pretty much toss that opportunity in the garbage.


----------



## sags

There is no level of safe exposure to the virus. It's rate of reproduction is what makes it more infectious and deadly.

The virus is breaking through our own immunity even with vaccine enhancement.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> You see, right now, if I want to start to get some safer, vital exposure to this virus, before it mutates and becomes even more dangerous, I can still do it pretty safely by meeting with my friends and family in an outdoor setting.


I guess I don't know what everyone else is doing. I *have* been meeting and hanging out with my friends and family. It is allowed by public health measures, and everyone in my circles is vaccinated. I just spent 2 weeks seeing my parents regularly.



OptsyEagle said:


> We are going to need exposure and I cannot think of any better way this winter then quick exposures in places like the liquor store, etc. Masks pretty much toss that opportunity in the garbage.


OK, I think the difference is that I just assumed that I am constantly exposed to the virus. Like I said, I've been seeing friends and family (really have been for a long time now) plus I probably get some exposure in the stores too.

Unless you are wearing a properly fitted N95 or N99 mask, you aren't blocking all viruses in the stores. With a surgical mask, you're probably getting some occasional virus exposure. Isn't that exactly what you want?

Masks aren't a total shield. They just reduce the amount of liquid-attached virus particles that you're breathing in.


----------



## james4beach

@OptsyEagle I do agree with your point that we all need some kind of minor virus exposure. But I suspect we all get that just from routine outings, shopping trips, and occasional meet-ups with friends. I agree it's a good idea for people to get out of the house and do these things.

A few of my friends have been so scared that they've been hiding indoors during the whole pandemic. I think that's a mistake, and I always encouraged them to go out. Getting out the house and doing your grocery and pharmacy shopping in person is healthy for many reasons. It gets you out of the house, it helps socialize you by being around other people, *it reduces fear*, and it probably exposes you to small amounts of the virus, even when you're wearing a mask.

Since my last post, I went to the store and bought a batch of cookies. There were too many for me so I shared the cookies with some ladies who were talking outside the store. It was a nice, brief, harmless social interaction. Lots of fun. The ladies were very happy.



OptsyEagle said:


> We are going to need exposure and I cannot think of any better way this winter then quick exposures in places like the liquor store, etc. Masks pretty much toss that opportunity in the garbage.


I think it would be a huge mistake to remove mask requirements. The problem is that if you eliminate the mask requirement, you send a message that there is no need for caution. It sends the wrong behavioural signal ... we experienced this in BC when the mask requirement was first eased, and everyone started breaking ALL kinds of other rules immediately. Parties and multiple household gatherings resumed immediately, when this was not allowed. Only masks were eased, but people interpret this to mean everything is back -- parties are back. @OptsyEagle everyone isn't as smart as you.

If you eliminate mask requirements, we're going to get people with symptoms coming and coughing in the store. Someone is going to go in there with active COVID and spew it all over the place, infecting employees.

Instead, I think we should encourage our friends and family to get out of the house and do their normal shopping. Just be cautious.

Stop using delivery services. Do your own outings and shopping. The delivery services should be reserved for when you feel unwell, or have symptoms.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> There is no level of safe exposure to the virus. It's rate of reproduction is what makes it more infectious and deadly.
> 
> The virus is breaking through our own immunity even with vaccine enhancement.


Take a look at the daily infection numbers today. What you will see is a boat load of infections. After that you will be told a number of hospitalizations and deaths. That number for hospitalizations and deaths will be a number significantly lower then the number of infections. The difference are "safer exposures" to the virus.

You also need to add, to whatever number of infections you are told about, all the mild and asymptomatic infections that occurred where the person exposed had so mild of symptoms or was asymptomatic and probably did not even know that they were exposed and therefore never bother to go get tested. Most experts would tell you to multiply the infections number by at least 3 but with Delta I believe you could use a multiplier of 10 to account for all those very safe exposures to this virus.

That is what I am talking about. All those lucky people who obtained those safe infections are now able to handle the more dangerous exposures in their futures and the new more dangerous mutations that will be coming at us down the road.


----------



## like_to_retire

OptsyEagle said:


> All those lucky people who obtained those safe infections are now able to handle the more dangerous exposures in their futures


Is it also correct that every time those people are exposed to a low dose that their immunity increases?

ltr


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> @OptsyEagle I do agree with your point that we all need some kind of minor virus exposure. But I suspect we all get that just from routine outings, shopping trips, and occasional meet-ups with friends. I agree it's a good idea for people to get out of the house and do these things.
> 
> A few of my friends have been so scared that they've been hiding indoors during the whole pandemic. I think that's a mistake, and I always encouraged them to go out. Getting out the house and doing your grocery and pharmacy shopping in person is healthy for many reasons. It gets you out of the house, it helps socialize you by being around other people, *it reduces fear*, and it probably exposes you to small amounts of the virus, even when you're wearing a mask.
> 
> Since my last post, I went to the store and bought a batch of cookies. There were too many for me so I shared the cookies with some ladies who were talking outside the store. It was a nice, brief, harmless social interaction. Lots of fun. The ladies were very happy.
> 
> 
> 
> I think it would be a huge mistake to remove mask requirements. The problem is that if you eliminate the mask requirement, you send a message that there is no need for caution. It sends the wrong behavioural signal ... we experienced this in BC when the mask requirement was first eased, and everyone started breaking ALL kinds of other rules immediately. Parties and multiple household gatherings resumed immediately, when this was not allowed. Only masks were eased, but people interpret this to mean everything is back -- parties are back. @OptsyEagle everyone isn't as smart as you.
> 
> If you eliminate mask requirements, we're going to get people with symptoms coming and coughing in the store. Someone is going to go in there with active COVID and spew it all over the place, infecting employees.
> 
> Instead, I think we should encourage our friends and family to get out of the house and do their normal shopping. Just be cautious.
> 
> Stop using delivery services. Do your own outings and shopping. The delivery services should be reserved for when you feel unwell, or have symptoms.


Most of what you said above I am in agreement with. I really just disagree on how much exposure one might obtain during a short visit to a retail store wearing a mask. As for all the outdoor activity you discuss, I am in full agreement. I go to every outdoor event I can get invited to and as I said previously, if a person opens their arms for a quick hug, I am there. I don't think I need to explain why I do that anymore.

Here is the concern I have about the other activities. I also agree that all the indoor family dinners, social gatherings and full on parties are are going to do an awesome job of exposing us to this virus and for the fully vaccinated, like myself, I am not expecting death to be the result. I even doubt I would be sent to the hospital but the chances are increasing. My main point here is that I am trying to juggle obtaining exposure, without having to add 3 or 4 days, knocked on my @ss with a fever, sore throat and a slew of cold like symptoms. Of course there will be 3 or 4 days of constant worry that accompanies that type of exposure.

It just seems to me that by wearing masks in short duration settings we are simply swapping a more easy exposure for one that will likely be a little more difficult for our stronger vaccinated bodies to deal with. I won't even start with how it is going to go down for the unvaccinated. That is what I am talking about, but I agree, the message sent is important and I also observe that my estimate of exposures is far from exact science. It is just the best guess one can get after 18 months of covid-19 news.


----------



## OptsyEagle

like_to_retire said:


> Is it also correct that every time those people are exposed to a low dose that their immunity increases?
> 
> ltr


Well, each time you were exposed to the vaccine your immunity increased. Think 2 shots versus 1. And yes, they do have numerous studies now that show that a previously infected person PLUS vaccination significantly improves their immunity effectiveness.

Also, there is plenty of information on previous respiratory viruses that lead us to believe what I am saying.


----------



## sags

Anti-bodies are overwhelmed by the speed of massive reproduction of the Delta variant. Our bodies can't produce antibodies fast enough to defeat the virus.

All we can do is hope the virus doesn't infect an area of our bodies that will kill us or cause serious long term damage.

That is why the doctors can't tell who will get really sick before they get really sick. Every patient is different.

That is why doctors can be treating for lung infection and the patients suddenly develop high blood pressure or kidney failure.

Survival depends on medical intervention and pure luck on where the virus infection spreads to inside our body.

If the virus invades an area of the body where there is no medical intervention possible..........the patient dies.


----------



## sags

_Also, there is plenty of information on previous respiratory viruses that lead us to believe what I am saying.
_
Covid isn't a respiratory disease. It is is a blood disease that infects the blood and other organs.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Anti-bodies are overwhelmed by the speed of massive reproduction of the Delta variant. Our bodies can't produce antibodies fast enough to defeat the virus.
> 
> 
> That is why the doctors can't tell who will get really sick before they get really sick. Every patient is different.
> 
> That is why doctors can be treating for lung infection and the patients suddenly develop high blood pressure or kidney failure.
> 
> Survival depends on medical intervention and pure luck on where the virus infection spreads to inside our body.
> 
> If the virus invades an area of the body where there is no medical intervention possible..........the patient dies.


You never give up do you. How do you think this statement you made actually happens:



> "All we can do is hope the virus doesn't infect an area of our bodies that will kill us or cause serious long term damage."


It is your immune system fighting off the virus. Those antibodies that you said "cannot" defeat this virus, defeating it every bloody day. I can't believe you have missed so many obvious observations.

The only reasons a doctor cannot tell you how sick you get is because they have no idea of the size of infection you actually were exposed to.

Again, just look at the covid numbers. You cannot possibly miss the fact that wayyyyyyy more people recover then succumb to the virus. In others words, wayyyyyy more infections are nothing more then useful inoculations that will help a person fight off more dangerous exposures, then what would be classified as severe. That was for the unvaccinated. When you then factor in vaccination you will be left with a massively larger number of safer infections to provide the improved immunity we all will need.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> _Also, there is plenty of information on previous respiratory viruses that lead us to believe what I am saying._
> 
> Covid isn't a respiratory disease. It is is a blood disease that infects the blood and other organs.


Who cares what they call it. I think we all know what it is, and my point was mainly how you acquire it, not what it does after you breathe it in.


----------



## sags

The level of symptoms and if people survive or not, or if they have long hauler symptoms all depends on where the virus traveled to via the bloodstream.

A respiratory disease affects the lungs. This virus effects all areas of the body and leaves people with all kinds of different problems.

How we acquire it isn't a secret. You breathe it in.......or it can infect through the eyes, which is why nurses wear face shields.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> I also observe that my estimate of exposures is far from exact science.


There are so many variables at play it's very difficult to guess at a safe exposure. Between age, existing conditions, current health status, as in, are you fighting off a mild cold or just run down right now. Also everyone's immune system is different, just look at the huge variance to vaccinne responses ... some walked away with a sore arm, others sick for a few days and rare cases with bad outcomes.

While I agree they should keep restrictions very limited right now (including no masks in most public settings) I think that should change come Nov/Dec. Just look at what last year's restrictions did to the flu season ... it almost eliminated it! Now imagine what a combined regular flu season with covid would look like ... not good. Catching covid while you are fighting off the flu ... I don't like those odds. 

In any case, we're likely to get another shot ... hopefully before the holiday season starts up.


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Covid isn't a respiratory disease.


Really? It's even right in the name "severe acute *respiratory *syndrome coronavirus 2"


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## sags

It is a novel virus, so they had to put into some category before they understood it.


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## cainvest

sags said:


> It is a novel virus, so they had to put into some category before they understood it.


They just got lucky then huh?  
Cause it's not like they haven't seen this before ... welcome to 2003.


----------



## sags

Clots, Strokes And Rashes. Is COVID-19 A Disease Of The Blood Vessels?


COVID-19 can cause symptoms that go well beyond the lungs, from strokes to organ failure. To explain these widespread injuries, researchers are studying how the virus affects the vascular system.




www.npr.org













COVID-19 is a vascular disease not a respiratory one, says study


This could explain blood clots in some COVID patients and other issues like "COVID feet", which are not classic symptoms of a respiratory illness.




www.euronews.com













What Does COVID Do to Your Blood?


COVID-19 is a very complex illness. The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 attacks the body in many different ways, ranging from mild to life threatening. Different organs and tissues of the body can be affected, including the blood.




www.hopkinsmedicine.org


----------



## sags

When patients first started arriving in hospitals with covid, the doctors treated them as they would any patient with respiratory disease.

When patients started exhibiting and dying from blood clots, strokes, kidney failure, heart attacks......they had to adjust their treatment protocols.

Some early deaths may have been prevented had the doctors treated covid as a blood disease and administered blood thinners etc as they do now.

More people are surviving covid because of the changed treatment protocol, but many are still left with long hauler symptoms.....like kidney failure.

I talked to an ER nurse and she said they see covid patients returning all the time because of long lasting symptoms unrelated to the lungs.

The theory that everyone should contract covid would lead to many people unnecessarily forced to live with disabling long hauler symptoms.

That would not be a good outcome.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> There are so many variables at play it's very difficult to guess at a safe exposure. Between age, existing conditions, current health status, as in, are you fighting off a mild cold or just run down right now. Also everyone's immune system is different, just look at the huge variance to vaccinne responses ... some walked away with a sore arm, others sick for a few days and rare cases with bad outcomes.
> 
> While I agree they should keep restrictions very limited right now (including no masks in most public settings) I think that should change come Nov/Dec. Just look at what last year's restrictions did to the flu season ... it almost eliminated it! Now imagine what a combined regular flu season with covid would look like ... not good. Catching covid while you are fighting off the flu ... I don't like those odds.
> 
> In any case, we're likely to get another shot ... hopefully before the holiday season starts up.


Of course, there are many variables that will determine a person's final outcome to an infection. But again, if you observe the results very closely you cannot help but see that at any age, for example, more people recovered from covid, then died. For almost any co-morbidity, again, more people recovered then died. I could go on and on. Since you cannot do anything about your age or your health status for that matter, the only other variable that plays a role in your final outcome, is how many viruses you breathe in, that your body is not required to fight off. "The initial dose of infection".

Since we are all going to come in contact with covid at some point in our futures, I am just suggesting that you attempt to make your "first contact" as low of exposure as you can. Do I have 100% confirmation on my methods of approach? No. Does anyone have any better suggestions to accomplish this? No. Is my suggestion the best known approach with all we know added together, with respect to finding a lower dose initial exposure? It is.


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## OptsyEagle

Most people reading my post should by now understand what I think would work best for them and the rest of Canada, as well. It does not really matter much if you agree, because as J4B and Cainvest have pointed out, most people are already exposing themselves to this virus and moving in the direction I am suggesting, anyway. I am just trying to get them thinking about doing it in a more safer way and hopefully pointing out to any holdbacks that "running away and hiding" has as much danger to it as safety and it will do nothing towards getting rid of this pandemic, in Canada, once and for all.


----------



## sags

Your theory is like being a little pregnant. It doesn't work that way.


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## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Since we are all going to come in contact with covid at some point in our futures, I am just suggesting that you attempt to make your "first contact" as low of exposure as you can.


As I've mentioned before almost nobody is going to make a "small dose" attempt ... It'll happen or not.



OptsyEagle said:


> Do I have 100% confirmation on my methods of approach? No. Does anyone have any better suggestions to accomplish this? No. Is my suggestion the best known approach with all we know added together, with respect to finding a lower dose initial exposure? It is.


My suggestion is vaccinate all that want it (including boosters if needed), open up everything within limits of the healthcare system and get on with life. Also remember this is a global event ... do you know how long it'll take to get everyone on the planet infected ... we'll discuss again in 2030.


----------



## sags

We can moderate covid infections and hospitalizations like a dam regulating water flow, but we have to plan far ahead because of the nature of the beast.

With current conditions being what they are, we can expect a big increase in cases and hospitalizations in the months ahead.

If that is the case we should be applying restrictions now, not removing them.

But as we can see, that isn't the practice. The politicians will wait until hospitals are already overloaded before applying restrictions. It will be too late by then.

Seeing large groups gathering......vaccinated and unvaccinated mixing together, we are going to have a massive wave of infections in a few months.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> As I've mentioned before almost nobody is going to make a "small dose" attempt ... It'll happen or not.
> 
> 
> My suggestion is vaccinate all that want it (including boosters if needed), open up everything within limits of the healthcare system and get on with life. Also remember this is a global event ... do you know how long it'll take to get everyone on the planet infected ... we'll discuss again in 2030.


No problem with the first statement and it is your second statement that makes this issue so important. Because of the pandemic issue outside our borders, one which we have little control, it pretty much puts the idea of being able to avoid this virus forever, outside of any probability estimation. So yes, I have considered the global situation considerably. It was that and the infectious nature of our new Delta variant combined with a vaccine that does not stop infection and still allows for transmission, that now leaves us the ideas I have put forth as about the only way forward for us and most of the world.

The pandemic to me is now similar to a situation where if one got enough rain drops on their head they would become infected, for example. Although theoretically it might be possible to avoid rain on your head forever, but any reasonable person should observe that over a lifetime, that is getting very close to impossible. The delta variant is that rain.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> As I've mentioned before almost nobody is going to make a "small dose" attempt ... It'll happen or not.


I will point out that anyone that defers to an outside gathering as opposed to an indoor gathering is indeed attempting make a small dose attempt.

My comments were an attempt to point out that soon that window of opportunity will close, with the cold weather, but there are many things one can do to reduce the dose of infection when forced indoors for their gatherings over the fall and winter months.

In addition to that, if we agree that infection is probably in all of our futures, there is quite a lot of preparation one could do to deal with that, when it happens, as well, that would also improve ones odds of a favourable outcome. Since most people here seem to want to just continue to leave it all in the hands of god and pray for a positive outcome, I will leave all those posts and inevitable arguments that would go with them, for another time, when what I am saying becomes more clear.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> In any case, we're likely to get another shot ... hopefully before the holiday season starts up.


Not sure if it's needed that soon (but depends on when you got your most recent dose). BC health officials, in their latest update, were saying that a third shot only appears necessary for people with health problems, or over age 80.

They also estimated that an ideal interval for the third dose, if it becomes necessary more broadly, might be *6 to 10 months* after the last shot.

Israel is giving third shots more liberally but I think there's a lot of medical debate right now about whether this is necessary. Personally I will not be rushing out to get a third shot, at least not until they reformulate the vaccine so that it matches the up-to-date variants.


----------



## Money172375

My neighbour got his two shots in Florida. Last week, walked into a clinic here to get hits “first” shot. Wonder how much of this is going on?

my mom is eligible for her third in Ontario (people with blood cancers). No news when she’ll get it. Oncologist says they don’t have all the details yet. She starts chemo again next month……I’m sure the advice will be to avoid all gatherings. She’s had enough. No way she’s missing thanksgiving and Xmas.


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## Beaver101

^


> She starts chemo again next month……*I’m sure the advice will be to avoid all gatherings.* She’s had enough. No way she’s missing thanksgiving and Xmas.


 ... only if her oncologist says so. Keep in mind, immuno-compromised cancer patients are extremely susceptible to infections even BEFORE Covid.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Personally I will not be rushing out to get a third shot, at least not until they reformulate the vaccine so that it matches the up-to-date variants.


That's assuming they will change it for the variants ... a change to the vaccine might require new clinical trials and EUA again. I'll get it when it becomes available to me, the "new" or "classic" vaccine.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Obviously a 3rd dose is an additional exposure to the virus, but I doubt it will make a significant enough difference for a fully vaccinated person in fairly good health. For the immune compromised it makes sense to try some more and for the elderly in nursing homes, as well. Not sure if it is needed for anyone who is just over 60 but I have not really seen much data on it yet. I doubt it, however.

The big issue I have is that if the wealthy countries go for a 3rd dose, for everyone, that just sucks it all away from the other countries in desperate need of it. The delta virus is not going to give them that much time to wait, so I am much more confident they need it a lot more then I do. It has been proven over and over again that the person in average health, with 2 doses of vaccine in them, is more then strong enough now to face this virus. Let's not get too carried away with vaccination, at least until they have something new.


----------



## sags

Dr. Fauci said today on CNN that the third dose adds a huge increase of antibodies, that exceed the total of both first two doses.

Everyone will be getting a third dose and the sooner the better. If it adds more........I will take a 4th dose as well.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> It has been proven over and over again that the person in average health, with 2 doses of vaccine in them, is more then strong enough now to face this virus. Let's not get too carried away with vaccination, at least until they have something new.


The hospitalization numbers will tell the story. If we see the serious outcome numbers rise for the vaccinated they'll know more protection is needed, should be easy to track.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Dr. Fauci said today on CNN that the third dose adds a huge increase of antibodies, that exceed the total of both first two doses.
> 
> Everyone will be getting a third dose and the sooner the better. If it adds more........I will take a 4th dose as well.


WHO said that before you are getting 3rd dose, poor countries should get 1/2 ones 🤣


----------



## sags

I don't care what WHO says about anything. They have been useless during this whole pandemic to protect China's reputation.

A new organization should be formed among NATO countries only.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> I don't care what WHO says about anything. They have been useless during this whole pandemic to protect China's reputation.
> 
> A new organization should be formed among NATO countries only.


Agree that WHO is corrupted and useless organization! But a new organization cannot be linked to a military bloc! Better to have OECD health organization


----------



## gibor365

Hell with Covid! Right now Canada playing vs USA qualifying game for World Cup 2022 in TN , 40k fans attend this game! I’m watching


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> The big issue I have is that if the wealthy countries go for a 3rd dose, for everyone, that just sucks it all away from the other countries in desperate need of it.


Absolutely, and the WHO is asking wealthy countries to not rush into third doses, so that the rest of the world can have some too.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> Absolutely, and the WHO is asking wealthy countries to not rush into third doses, so that the rest of the world can have some too.


Hell with HWO and poor countries! I agree with sags on this one! I care about my family, not about some shithole countries!


----------



## james4beach

gibor365 said:


> Hell with HWO and poor countries! I agree with sags on this one! I care about my family, not about some shithole countries!


To hell with the poor countries?

Leave them to stew in COVID, and they might brew the mutation which finally *offs* you (or your family).


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> To hell with the poor countries?
> 
> Leave them to stew in COVID, and they might brew the mutation which finally *offs* you (or your family).


We should care about our country first of all!
We get 3rd dose and “they” can brew whatever they want.
Btw, all new variants got brewed not from 3td world countries, but from UK, Brazil, India and South Africa ( probably the richest one in Africa).
PS so why did you get 2nd dose?! You should have wait until all Nigeria, Somali and others get 1st one 🤣


----------



## gibor365

gibor365 said:


> Hell with Covid! Right now Canada playing vs USA qualifying game for World Cup 2022 in TN , 40k fans attend this game! I’m watching


So far USA is dominating, Canada cannot pass half


----------



## sags

Israel announces they plan on a 4th vaccination.........and as many more as needed.


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> Israel announces they plan on a 4th vaccination.........and as many more as needed.


Because Israel cares about their citizens first of all!

*In Israel, Being Fully Vaccinated Now Means Three Shots








In Israel, Being Fully Vaccinated Now Means Three Shots


The country is upping the vaccine ante, pressing citizens to get Covid-19 booster shots and saying those who don’t will face restrictions on traveling, dining out and other activities.




www.google.ca




*


----------



## OptsyEagle

I don't think anyone needs the who to understand that if billions of wealthier people all of a sudden decide they want another dose of vaccine, that is going to become a problem in supply for the poorer people who need it so much more.

There is no doubt another dose will provide some level of improvement in a person's immunity. I am just saying we don't need it and a few percent more in effectiveness cannot possibly be better then 80% in effectiveness for someone who has none, unless selfishness drives your every thought and consideration.

Even if it does, you also have to understand that the announcement of a 3rd dose for everyone is definitely enough to push a huge number of the currently unvaccinated away from coming forward for their needed shot. Those people, in our communities, getting vaccinated has so much more benefit to you, then another shot of the same vaccine, for the person in average health. 

Until they come up with something that more effectively prevents breakthrough infections and transmissibility of the current variants, let's not become lushes on the stuff.


----------



## sags

Vaccination rates have slowed down in many countries for months, so why haven't they been using vaccine in the poor countries now ?

Do they expect us to sit around waiting forever for them to get on with it ?


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Vaccination rates have slowed down in many countries for months, so why haven't they been using vaccine in the poor countries now ?
> 
> Do they expect us to sit around waiting forever for them to get on with it ?


Right now the majority of 3rd doses, for the various health reasons, are most likely coming from the stockpiles we have already set aside. I doubt too much of that will ever make it to the poorer countries anyway. My point refers more to the decision to vaccinate everyone a 3rd time. That would no doubt, divert too much vaccine.

Why the poorer countries do not have the vaccine they need would have a multitude of reasons, supply being just one of them. There are many other reasons why a 3rd dose, of the very same vaccine, is a bad idea for Canadians but it would vary by each persons opinion on what is truly holding us back. I believe the unvaccinated are our biggest problem right now, but I suppose others may think getting another 10% of efficacy is all they need to move forward. 

The unvaccinated are not going to like the idea that now they will be asked to get 3 doses. 2 doses was bad enough. To a certain extent I can't argue with that. It does start to sound kind of ridiculous that we would now need 3 doses. Like, the first two did not work so well, but this 3rd dose should magically do the trick. It really does start to sound like we have no idea what we are doing and if a 3rd dose is recommended for everyone, I might not be able to disagree with them on it.


----------



## sags

The booster shots restore the protection from 60% and declining back to 100%. The 4th wave is the worst yet........as predicted it would be.

We know the vaccines lose protection over time, so it is likely we will need a continuing regime of more shots every 6 months.

Having protection in the past has no bearing on having protection in the future.

People can accept it or not....but either way it doesn't change the reality.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Hell with HWO and poor countries! I agree with sags on this one! I care about my family, not about some shithole countries!


 ... this post illustrates a real moron on display.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> We should care about our country first of all!
> We get 3rd dose and “they” can brew whatever they want.


 ... btw, which is your "our" "first" "country" when Canada is the land of pussies according to you?



> Btw, all new variants got brewed not from 3td world countries, but from UK, Brazil, India and South Africa ( probably the richest one in Africa).


 ... oh, and you noticed?


> PS so why did you get 2nd dose?! You should have wait until all Nigeria, Somali and others get 1st one 🤣


 ... 'cause he is entitled to get it just the same as you. Only he doesn't go around and shout "it's me, me, and only me first!". Plus he doesn't make the decisions as to which of the poorer nations get any. 

I can accurately guess the word "humanity" doesn't exists in your vocabulary.


----------



## Beaver101

Overwhelmed morgues belie U.S. illusion of a defanged pandemic



> ...In any case, it’s unlikely the U.S. has seen COVID’s final act. ...


 ... this sentence from the article (dated today September 6, 2021), sums it up nicely. 

I'm glad that the CDC has recently issued a travel advisory/warning for its citizens despite our borders are open. Canada don't need the additional Covid stats.


----------



## sags

Yup......and we have people in Canada who want to open everything up.

“There was an underestimation of how penetrant delta could be,” said Vanderbilt University infectious disease professor William Schaffner. “There was a desire to really open things up again, and I think that worked* contrary to good common sense*.”

For some odd reason the lack of common sense seems to inflict mostly Republicans in the US and Conservatives in Canada.


----------



## sags

Would you rather have $1,000,000 cash today or 1 penny today that doubles every day for 30 days ?

If you took the penny, you would end up with over $5,000,000 at 30 days. The tipping point is on the 27th day.

Thus.....it explains the exponential growth of the virus and why we will likely end up locking down to control the spread.


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> Overwhelmed morgues belie U.S. illusion of a defanged pandemic
> 
> ... this sentence from the article (dated today September 6, 2021), sums it up nicely.
> 
> I'm glad that the CDC has recently issued a travel advisory/warning for its citizens despite our borders are open. Canada don't need the additional Covid stats.


Let's hope the Americans stay in the US and don't try to travel here.


----------



## james4beach

BC's Minister of Health released a table showing the breakdown of people in ICU.

This shows that 92% of people in ICU are not fully vaccinated. Also keep in mind that delta is predominant in BC.


----------



## sags

That seems like the stats everywhere, but I would still find it cold comfort if I was one of the 8% in the hospital who are fully vaccinated.

Still got to maintain all protocols. If you are un-vaccinated........go away.

My brother cancelled a family get together because a couple of siblings and their spouses aren't vaccinated.

We already told him we wouldn't come unless everyone was vaccinated. They decided to cancel the get together rather than risk it themselves.

It didn't really surprise us my one brother and his wife aren't vaccinated. They are up to their eyeballs in conspiracy theories.

Last time we got together he told the rest of us that Michelle Obama was really a man. Check out the pictures..........he said.


----------



## damian13ster

So zero kids?


----------



## Beaver101

'Boiling point': Alberta doctors warn of health system collapse as COVID cases climb

Is this new news?



> ...
> 
> _In the meantime, there are no signs COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are slowing. There were 647 Albertans in hospital Wednesday due to COVID-19, with 147 of those patients in intensive care. Hospitalizations jumped by 7.5 per cent from Tuesday. Another 18 people died in a 24-hour period.
> 
> The doctors with Protect Our Province said there are risks related to government inaction. Those risks, they said, include reduced health-care access for Albertans and increased burnout among health-care professionals.
> 
> Alberta Health Services announced late Wednesday that all scheduled, elective surgeries and outpatient procedures in the Calgary Zone have been postponed for the rest of the week. It said on social media the move was necessary to deploy qualified staff to intensive and critical care units.
> 
> “The situation really has come to a boiling point,” said Schwartz.
> 
> ... “It's going to be a while before *the premier and the chief medical officer of health* *will be willing to step back and accept that these actions have failed to immediately curb transmission and by that point*, we're going to be in* dire, dire trouble.*” ... _


Summarized: The "CMHO" of Alberta working hard together with its premier ... both staring out in space in their home offices.


----------



## Beaver101

Report says $50,000 cost for COVID patients but expert says factor in other costs

I guess this is fake news according to anti-vaxxers, Covid non-believers, and the likes-in-the-barrel ... as long as the costs are not coming out of their pockets since everyone else pay the taxes ... yawn.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> BC's Minister of Health released a table showing the breakdown of people in ICU.


Thanks for that. You know when you look at a chart like that it is amazing how many useful observations can be made. Many just look at the difference between fully vaxed and unvaxed and derive a quick conclusion and move on. If you are a vaccine proponent you will identify the huge difference between the two groups of people and if you are anti-vax you will see the fact that vaccine alone does not guarantee total safety. Both observations are actually correct.

No doubt as we know, full vaccination is not a guarantee of absolute protection. If they excluded out the co-morbidities better you would likely see that number of 10 fall to around 2 or 3, and those would probably be mostly listed as unknown. I have an idea why they are there but without data, difficult to prove.

The other thing we can see is that the breakthough ICUs seem to be still age related. Keep in mind infection cases tend to also be inverse to age so this relationship of age and severity is even a little worse then what first appears, if we measure it as ICU per cases instead of exact numbers.

We also get to see that ICU probability for the unvaccinated still seems to drop off dramatically for the very young. So again, the risk here is for older unvaccinated citizens. I don't know how many unvaccinated people are in BC, but in Ontario, as of last week, we had around 750,000 unvaccinated citizen's age 50 or older. You could put a big red target sign right there if you wanted to help the Delta variant identify its objective.

The other thing you don't see, on that list, was the magnitude more people who were infected in BC and of course never needed to go to the ICU. This number would be many magnitudes higher then the severe infections, especially in the warmer months, but that difference between them will narrow as the colder weather comes on. So, be careful out there this fall and winter. Your opportunity window for safer exposure is quickly closing.

One last observation is that the 126 people currently in the ICU probably accounts for somewhere around 25% of BC's entire ICU capacity. Most of those infections would have happened probably in August. It offers us a glance of what it will look like in December if we don't get more adults vaccinated and soon.


----------



## sags

damian13ster said:


> So zero kids?


Good point.

I would assume that people with kids are younger and hopefully fully vaccinated, but there are still lots of grandparents looking after kids these days.

No way to totally escape the danger unless you are a hermit who never leaves the house, but we try to mitigate the risk as much as possible.

So, we don't go to large events with a mix of vaccinated and un-vaccinated people. There is no need for us to take on that level of risk.

Still.......this morning I took our son's truck in for service as he is away for work.

I couldn't help but see all the people wandering around and thinking the service advisors are exposed to lots of people all day every day.

People need to get vaccinated to protect them and other people who have to go to work every day.


----------



## sags

Seriously Optsy.......750,000 people over 50 unvaccinated in Ontario ?

That is pure stupidity, but includes my brother and his wife and they aren't going to change no matter what.


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> 'Boiling point': Alberta doctors warn of health system collapse as COVID cases climb
> 
> Is this new news?
> 
> 
> 
> Summarized: The "CMHO" of Alberta working hard together with its premier ... both staring out in space in their home offices.


What the heck is Kenney and his government thinking ?

All the doctors are saying it is a dire situation already. They don't have beds or staff and some places are shutting down their emergency rooms.

And Kenney goes on vacation ? His health minister hides from the pubic ?

Beware people.....this is what Conservative Reformer healthcare looks like.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> What the heck is Kenney and his government thinking ?
> 
> All the doctors are saying it is a dire situation already. They don't have beds or staff and some places are shutting down their emergency rooms.
> 
> And Kenney goes on vacation ? His health minister hides from the pubic ?
> 
> Beware people.....this is what Conservative Reformer healthcare looks like.


Exactly same as Tam and Health Canada, and PHAC.
The reason is simple - elections.
**** doesn't get done during election cycle.
Don't have government call early election during pandemic.

Unfortunately we have selfish entitled prick as Prime Minister and he doesn't care about consequences for anybody else, if he sees potential personal benefit


----------



## gibor365

damian13ster said:


> Exactly same as Tam and Health Canada, and PHAC.
> The reason is simple - elections.
> **** doesn't get done during election cycle.
> Don't have government call early election during pandemic.
> 
> Unfortunately we have selfish entitled prick as Prime Minister and he doesn't care about consequences for anybody else, if he sees potential personal benefit


When dictators cared about something, but power?!


----------



## sags

Provinces held elections and didn't shut down their covid responses. The Federal election has nothing to do with Provincial health care.

Kenney isn't out campaigning.......he went on vacation and had a Facebook message to avoid the media.

His Health Minister isn't campaigning.....she said she had sufficient data to remove restrictions and then failed to produce it and went into hiding from the media.

I am surprised they aren't massive protests in Alberta.

P.S. Kenney's latest tweet was yesterday......here it is. The previous one was on September 3rd.

Alberta's health care is crumbling and he is talking about training for future tech jobs ?

_We need skills for jobs when the tech sector is booming in Alberta. Check out these new programs supported by Alberta’s Recovery Plan _


----------



## damian13ster

It is NATIONAL election. Therefore politicians in entire nation are focused on campaigning instead of working.
He went on vacation because of election.
There are no conferences, updates, because of election.
Exactly the same reason as health canada, Tam, etc.
Suddenly their conferences stopped right before election was called.
You are either completely ignorant or willfully blind if you don't see that.

Why would there be protests in Alberta?
You don't see nationwide protests over Tam not having conferences either. Not exactly a reason to protest


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Seriously Optsy.......750,000 people over 50 unvaccinated in Ontario ?
> 
> That is pure stupidity, but includes my brother and his wife and they aren't going to change no matter what.


That is stupidity. I just wanted to point out where our last remaining big problem lies. Luckily by next spring, whether these people come around or not, I suspect that problem should be greatly reduced. When that happens, we do have a few other lesser problems. What are we going to do for the people with the comorbidities? That is also a big problem it appears.


----------



## Beaver101

Sweeping new COVID-19 vaccine mandates for 100 million Americans



> _WASHINGTON (AP) - President Joe Biden on Thursday is announcing sweeping new federal vaccine requirements affecting as many as 100 million Americans in an all-out effort to increase COVID-19 vaccinations and curb the surging delta variant that is killing thousands each week and jeopardizing the nation's economic recovery.
> 
> The expansive rules mandate that all employers with more than 100 workers require them to be vaccinated or test for the virus weekly, affecting about 80 million Americans. And the roughly 17 million workers at health facilities that receive federal Medicare or Medicaid also will have to be fully vaccinated.
> 
> *Biden is also signing an executive order to require vaccination for employees of the executive branch and contractors who do business with the federal government - with no option to test out. *That covers several million more workers. ... _


 ... from the land of the free and braves. I think this will be the best gift to the country before their Thanksgiving.


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> Exactly same as Tam and Health Canada, and PHAC.
> The reason is simple - elections.
> **** doesn't get done during election cycle.
> Don't have government call early election during pandemic.
> 
> Unfortunately we have selfish entitled prick as Prime Minister and he doesn't care about consequences for anybody else, if he sees potential personal benefit


Not clear to me why a federal election makes the Alberta government put up the 'gone fishin' sign


----------



## damian13ster

andrewf said:


> Not clear to me why a federal election makes the Alberta government put up the 'gone fishin' sign


Really? It is quite simple.
Kenney isn't popular. 
His person would be used by some parties to attack federal candidate.
Therefore Kenney had to withdraw himself from media


----------



## Beaver101

Health-care workers face 'moral injury' from work stress, protests, says expert

Let's see how long those anti-vaxxers/protestors keep this up for until those frontline healthcare workers (aka nurses & possibly medical doctors) draw the line and desist services. Really really really super-dumbassed smart.


----------



## damian13ster

I don't understand it at all.
Why protest health care workers? There isn't a single reason to do so.
They aren't the ones in charge making dumbass decisions. They are simply doing their best caring for the patients.
Go protest politicians and leave health care workers alone.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> I don't understand it at all.
> Why protest health care workers? There isn't a single reason to do so.
> They aren't the ones in charge making dumbass decisions. They are simply doing their best caring for the patients.
> Go protest politicians and leave health care workers alone.


Well left wingers protest and harrass politicians parents, and schools etc.

The reality is that the hospitals are accessible, and it will get noticed. 
The real problem is that the political leadership is ignoring their concerns, being very rude and dismissive. So they'll escalate.
Escalation happens when you remove other options.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Well left wingers protest and harrass politicians parents, and schools etc.
> 
> The reality is that the hospitals are accessible, and it will get noticed.
> The real problem is that the political leadership is ignoring their concerns, being very rude and dismissive. So they'll escalate.


 ... seriously? These dumb-asses have no outlet for their politicized views, hate and anger about being locked up in their cages that they have to find easy targets. 



> Escalation happens when you remove other options.


 ... another seriously? This is saying that ALOT of options are available to everyone else except them. Nothing worst than a bunch of dumb-assed morons throwing tantrums.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> I don't understand it at all.
> Why protest health care workers? There isn't a single reason to do so.
> They aren't the ones in charge making dumbass decisions. They are simply doing their best caring for the patients.


 ... you don't have to as it happened and will continue to happen until something breaks and that something is going to be MAJOR.



> Go protest politicians and leave health care workers alone.


 ... only if they were so talented. Better yet, go and run for government and be a politician and make the rules. Besides, they got so much time on their hands. They should be reminded that the "taxpayers" are still their employer.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... seriously? These dumb-asses have no outlet for their politicized views, hate and anger about being locked up in their cages that they have to find easy targets.


yes



> ... another seriously? This is saying that ALOT of options are available to everyone else except them. Nothing worst than a bunch of dumb-assed morons throwing tantrums.


Absolutely, I completely agree.

You seem angry, I'm just making an observation, and sharing what I think is going on.
It is very valuable to understand what people are thinking. That doesn't mean you agree with them.
I think they're wrong, I think they're protesting the wrong thing, the wrong people etc.

However I understand why they're doing it. Don't you?


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> yes
> 
> 
> Absolutely, I completely agree.
> 
> You seem angry, I'm just making an observation, and sharing what I think is going on.
> It is very valuable to understand what people are thinking. That doesn't mean you agree with them.
> I think they're wrong, I think they're protesting the wrong thing, the wrong people etc.
> 
> However I understand why they're doing it. Don't you?


 ... and just what's will your view of "not agreeing with them" plus your "understanding why they're doing this (when the obvious has already been stated)" do exactly? Blowing hot air from 2 sides of your mouth? And of course, I'm very upset (to the point of anger) this is happening.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... and just what's will your view of "not agreeing with them" plus your "understanding why they're doing this (when the obvious has already been stated)" do exactly? Blowing hot air from 2 sides of your mouth? And of course, I'm very upset (to the point of anger) this is happening.


Huh?
I think they're wrong, but I understand why they're doing it.
I think lots of people are wrong about lots of things, but I understand why they're doing it.

I really do try to understand why people think what they do, particularly when they have different opinions.
Are you saying you can't comprehend how anyone could have a different opinion?

I do try to understand why people hold different opinions, or at least the deeper reasons and logic.

It's not talking out both sides of my mouth to understand, or at least try to understand why someone disagrees with me.

The idea that seeking understanding is somehow agreeing or supporting with someone is a harmful ideology. I simply seek to understand, that's the primary purpose of free speech and our universities. It's been under attack for a while, but I find it troubling that the idea of understanding is foreign to someone on a discussion forum.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Huh?
> I think they're wrong, but I understand why they're doing it.
> I think lots of people are wrong about lots of things, but I understand why they're doing it.
> 
> I really do try to understand why people think what they do, particularly when they have different opinions.
> Are you saying you can't comprehend how anyone could have a different opinion?
> 
> I do try to understand why people hold different opinions, or at least the deeper reasons and logic.
> 
> It's not talking out both sides of my mouth to understand, or at least try to understand why someone disagrees with me.
> 
> The idea that seeking understanding is somehow agreeing or supporting with someone is a harmful ideology. I simply seek to understand, that's the primary purpose of free speech and our universities. It's been under attack for a while, but I find it troubling that the idea of understanding is foreign to someone on a discussion forum.


 ... let me put it this way - your method of "seeking understanding" is not meant as "agreeing or supporting" that view (never mind about "harmful" ideology - again your interpretation) is simply "hidden manipulation". BECAUSE you understood it, then there is no need to have to "discuss" it on the forum (sans spare me the free speech availability), do you?

Btw, don't forget what your post #6184 started off with ... most likely a 'good useful' ideology? The mouth still has 2 sides. I'm curious, were you a preacher once?


----------



## Plugging Along

Beaver101 said:


> ... and just what's will your view of "not agreeing with them" plus your "understanding why they're doing this (when the obvious has already been stated)" do exactly? Blowing hot air from 2 sides of your mouth? And of course, I'm very upset (to the point of anger) this is happening.


I agree with @MrMatt It's actually quite important to try to understand the why another side is doing something ESPECIALLY if you don't agree with them. Part of understanding the other point of view is to gain a better understand of the larger picture and the complexities which is crucial in critical thinking and problem. It also helps you see the different nuances and see if you are missing something. 

Also, everyone feels that they aren't being heard and when people feel that way they start doing more and more extreme things to be heard. I absolutely think these protestors are the biggest idiots around especially those at the hospitals, I don't agree with them, but I understand why they are doing it. 

Most people try to solve the wrong problem because they don't understand the why someone is acting that way.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... let me put it this way - your method of "seeking understanding" is not meant as "agreeing or supporting" that view (never mind about "harmful" ideology - again your interpretation) is simply "hidden manipulation". BECAUSE you understood it, then there is no need to have to "discuss" it on the forum (sans spare me the free speech availability), do you?


Well we could discuss it if you want, but I don't think you're trying to discuss in good faith.



> Btw, don't forget what your post #6184 started off with ... most likely a 'good useful' ideology? The mouth still has 2 sides. I'm curious, were you a preacher once?


I never said it was a "good useful ideology". 
I honestly don't understand what you're trying to say.

I think they're wrong. I think I understand why they are doing that.
How is that 2 sided? Understanding and agreeing are different thing.

I understand that colour blind people think 2 different colours might be the same colour, but I don't agree with them.


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> Well left wingers protest and harrass politicians parents, and schools etc.
> 
> The reality is that the hospitals are accessible, and it will get noticed.
> The real problem is that the political leadership is ignoring their concerns, being very rude and dismissive. So they'll escalate.
> Escalation happens when you remove other options.


I am curious on why you think it is the left that is protesting the masks and doing the harrassment? From what I have seen so far it seems to be the far right.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> I am curious on why you think it is the left that is protesting the masks and doing the harrassment? From what I have seen so far it seems to be the far right.


I don't think that.
But lefties also engage in inappropriate protests as well.
I was thinking of the protests against Sam Osterhoff, where they doxxed his parents.
Or the domestic terrorism at Ryerson.








Egerton Ryerson statue will not be replaced after being pulled down, university says | Globalnews.ca


The statue has been the subject of criticism for several years amid calls for Canada to reconcile its history of colonialism and treatment of Indigenous people.




globalnews.ca





I think it's more extreme people protesting at hospitals. 
However I wouldn't characterize those opposed to mandatory medical interventions as "far right".
It's a pretty well accepted fact that one should have bodily autonomy.
Remember the Ontario nurses won a case against mandatory vaccination a year before COVID.

Without derailing into other topics, I actually think the case for/against particular medical procedures is very interesting, as it exposes a LOT of hypocrisy IMO.


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> I don't think that.
> But lefties also engage in inappropriate protests as well.
> I was thinking of the protests against Sam Osterhoff, where they doxxed his parents.
> Or the domestic terrorism at Ryerson.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Egerton Ryerson statue will not be replaced after being pulled down, university says | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> The statue has been the subject of criticism for several years amid calls for Canada to reconcile its history of colonialism and treatment of Indigenous people.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think it's more extreme people protesting at hospitals.
> However I wouldn't characterize those opposed to mandatory medical interventions as "far right".
> It's a pretty well accepted fact that one should have bodily autonomy.
> Remember the Ontario nurses won a case against mandatory vaccination a year before COVID.
> 
> Without derailing into other topics, I actually think the case for/against particular medical procedures is very interesting, as it exposes a LOT of hypocrisy IMO.


That's a fair explanation. I agree there are inappropriate protests from both sides, but the ones I have seen recently at the hospitals have been the far right. My observation is that it's usually the 'far or extreme' what ever side that is the inappropriate. When they are on the extreme side of what ever, they have no desire to understand the other side, it's just about their side.

I am a pro vaccines, pro vaccine passport (they have been around for ages) if they are used for non essential services (restraurants, large gatherings etc), but I do have mixed feelings about forcing people to vaccine for work as work is about livelihood. However, I understand why they need to happen because of it's impacts. I think there is something in between but if both sides dig in, then we will never solve this.


----------



## Beaver101

Plugging Along said:


> I agree with @MrMatt It's actually quite important to try to understand the why another side is doing something ESPECIALLY if you don't agree with them. Part of understanding the other point of view is to gain a better understand of the larger picture and the complexities which is crucial in critical thinking and problem. It also helps you see the different nuances and see if you are missing something.


 ... let me put it this way, I'll let this "try to understand" with someone with tons of patience for the nth thousand of times. Trust me, I'm not missing anything after those plenty of attempts.



> Also, everyone feels that they aren't being heard and when people feel that way they start doing more and more extreme things to be heard. I absolutely think these protestors are the biggest idiots around especially those at the hospitals, I don't agree with them, but I understand why they are doing it.


 ... the understanding part has past by according to the books. These bozos needs to be put in jail ... the politicians/law enforcement people better soon come up with something to that stipulates protesting in front of a hospital/against healthcare workers are "against the law, not just plain harassment".



> Most people try to solve the wrong problem because they don't understand the why someone is acting that way.


 ... read above, I digress with continuous "understanding/discussing" on this forum. We all have all graduated from kindergarten.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> That's a fair explanation. I agree there are inappropriate protests from both sides, but the ones I have seen recently at the hospitals have been the far right. My observation is that it's usually the 'far or extreme' what ever side that is the inappropriate. When they are on the extreme side of what ever, they have no desire to understand the other side, it's just about their side.
> 
> I am a pro vaccines, pro vaccine passport (they have been around for ages) if they are used for non essential services (restraurants, large gatherings etc), but I do have mixed feelings about forcing people to vaccine for work as work is about livelihood. However, I understand why they need to happen because of it's impacts. I think there is something in between but if both sides dig in, then we will never solve this.


I don't think that rejected regulation on ones body is a "left/right" issue.
Texas passed a law restricting medical interventions, and apparently the left has an issue with that.

I think they're are acting extremists. I don't think they're necessarily political far.

I am pro vaccine, more than our government in fact.
However I am against mandatory vaccinations, particularly with vaccines that
1. Don't appear to effectively stop spread.
2. Are well documented to have serious health risks.

I think the risks are sufficiently low that you should get the COVID shot, the odds are clearly in your favour.
But I just can't bring myself to allow the government to regulate my body. Either directly or by coercion.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... let me put it this way, I'll let this "try to understand" with someone with tons of patience for the nth thousand of times. Trust me, I'm not missing anything after those plenty of attempts.
> 
> ... the understanding part has past by according to the books. These bozos needs to be put in jail ... the politicians/law enforcement people better soon come up with something to that stipulates protesting in front of a hospital/against healthcare workers are "against the law, not just plain harassment".


If they haven't broken a law, they shouldn't go to jail.
The courts have been balancing the right to protest with obstructing access for years, it's not eacy.



> ... read above, I digress with continuous "understanding/discussing" on this forum. We all have all graduated from kindergarten.


It's sad that you think only small children should seek to understand.


----------



## Plugging Along

Beaver101 said:


> ... let me put it this way, I'll let this "try to understand" with someone with tons of patience for the nth thousand of times. Trust me, I'm not missing anything after those plenty of attempts.
> 
> ... the understanding part has past by according to the books. These bozos needs to be put in jail ... the politicians/law enforcement people better soon come up with something to that stipulates protesting in front of a hospital/against healthcare workers are "against the law, not just plain harassment".
> 
> ... read above, I digress with continuous "understanding/discussing" on this forum. We all have all graduated from kindergarten.


There is no point for me to go back and forth as you understand what you want. I was merely stating understanding is not the same as agreeing. 

I do agree that it's stupid that they are protesting in front of hospitals. However, if it's not illegal than arresting those for not breaking the law is not an appropriate measure. The appropriate measure is to make it illegal to protest in front of a hospital. 

Don't mistaken my understanding and logic for agreement. I am still angry and frustrated at these idiots. When I find an idiot in real life, I have no problem telling them I understand and still think they are wrong. 

Cooler heads to prevail if we want to get through this. It's through understanding is how we get cooler heads. The first step is understanding (From both side), then trying to figure out how to solve this. Trying to solve this without understanding has people digging their heels.


----------



## sags

I don't think it is that difficult to understand these protestors.

They have access to all the same information as everyone else. 

They just don't care about anyone else and I understand they don't care.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I don't think it is that difficult to understand these protestors.
> 
> They have access to all the same information as everyone else.
> 
> They just don't care about anyone else and I understand they don't care.


Except your post shows you don't understand.

They DO care about other people, that's why they're protesting.


----------



## sags

Maybe that is why they bring their kids with them to witness them screaming, swearing and throwing stones at the PM......on their behalf.

Gee........thanks mom.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Maybe that is why they bring their kids with them to witness them screaming, swearing and throwing stones at the PM......on their behalf.
> 
> Gee........thanks mom.


Lots of protestors bring their kids.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> If they haven't broken a law, they shouldn't go to jail.
> The courts have been balancing the right to protest with obstructing access for years, it's not eacy.
> 
> 
> It's sad that you think only small children should seek to understand.


The liberal/left/progressives strongly support protects which they are sympathetic with even when they resort to violence and law breaking ie native railroad blockades, the destruction of buildings and looting in cities like Minneapolis . When the shoe is on the other foot they whistle a different tune. Its not hard to find hyprocrisy these days. I have little sympathy for the Trudeau protestors but I fully support their right to protest. I am always disappointed with the police when protestors break the law and resort to violence and the police ignores those actions. Throwing gravel crossed that line . Other then the gravel incident I see nothing that is illegal. Hurt feelings is not a reason to shutdown protest. One has to wonder why this leader engenders so much anger and contempt. I though Trudeau was for sunny ways and connecting with everyone.?


----------



## sags

The rail blockade and police responses are Provincial responsibilities. Healthcare is a Provincial responsibility. Why are these protestors targeting Trudeau ?


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> The rail blockade and police responses are Provincial responsibilities. Healthcare is a Provincial responsibility. Why are these protestors targeting Trudeau ?


Because they don't like him and they are letting him know. Railroads are an integral park of interprovincial commerce which is clear area of Federal jurisdiction under the constitution. The Liberals have always made healthcare into a federal issue and they have something called the Canada Health Act which they use to control and bully the provinces.


----------



## sags

The PM has no authority to order the Provincial police to break up a rail blockage protest.

Health care is administered by the Provinces, but the Federal government pays transfer payments so the level of healthcare is consistent across the country.

If it were not so, the 1,174,000 Canadians who live in Saskatchewan or other lowly populated Provinces couldn't afford to fund their own healthcare.

There just isn't a sufficient tax base. People should be careful what they wish for because some day they might get it.

If those people don't like the covid restrictions they should be at Queen's Park protesting the Ford government, but they are clueless.


----------



## KaeJS

What do you all think of my new shirt?


----------



## sags

Looks good. It might get you some free drinks and hot babes in the unvaxxed crowd.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The PM has no authority to order the Provincial police to break up a rail blockage protest.


No, but he could order RCMP to enforce laws on a Federally regulated industry.
He could also support the Rail police with enforcement actions, and he push for restitution from those causing harm.



> Health care is administered by the Provinces, but the Federal government pays transfer payments so the level of healthcare is consistent across the country.


Feds pay money to attach strings and put requirements on something outside of their jurisdiction.



> If it were not so, the 1,174,000 Canadians who live in Saskatchewan or other lowly populated Provinces couldn't afford to fund their own healthcare.
> 
> There just isn't a sufficient tax base. People should be careful what they wish for because some day they might get it.


Then don't live there.
Really, don't like in a place that doesn't offer the things you want.



> If those people don't like the covid restrictions they should be at Queen's Park protesting the Ford government, but they are clueless.


Yes they are


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> Looks good. It might get you some free drinks and hot babes in the unvaxxed crowd.


I hope so.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> What do you all think of my new shirt?
> 
> View attachment 22145


It's like wearing David Star in nazi Germany


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Looks good. It might get you some free drinks and hot babes in the unvaxxed crowd.


Ridiculous. SK pioneered the universal Medicare plan from 1963 to 1971 without any assistance from Ottawa. I'm surprised a good leftwing dipper like you wouldn't know the history of SK medicare and T.C Douglas. Please don't send us any more Guardian links. They are very creative in making up fake news. Their stuff on Oklahoma and the dewormering medication wasn't picked up by the WP, the NY Times, MSNBC, CNN or any of the other mainline liberal propaganda machines. It 's got to be garage for these outfits not to jump on that story.


----------



## gibor365

__





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www.teepublic.com


----------



## ian

TC Douglas is indeed the father of Medicare. He was a smart cracker. As Premier of Sask. he knew that he would have a fight on his hands with the Medical Assoc. And a strike.

What did he do? Started to recruit physicians from the UK and other countries to come to Sask prior to introducing the bill. The strike was broken within weeks. It never really got off the ground.


----------



## bgc_fan

Well, looks like ICU utilization in Alberta is starting to stress out. Pretty much going to start mirroring the peaks of the 3rd wave.

So much for Kenney's assertion that the fourth wave wasn't going to happen, so enjoy summer. Let me guess, the excuse is that it's fall and people are starting to stay indoors right?


----------



## OptsyEagle

Without vaccine passports it is really just a matter of timing of infections. The unvaccinated are going to get infected. It would be nice if Kenny would acknowledge that and come out with some severely restrictive passports to get his unvaccinated into the vaccine line before the Delta variant finds them first. Without passports this situation with Alberta hospitals was inevitable. It is the increased socializing by both vaccinated and unvaccinated that will make this wave the ugliest on record, but hopefully it will be the last. All provinces will see this, Alberta and Saskatchewan were just the leaders.

I will add, that although most of the severity seems to be hitting the unvaccinated, there are still way too many people in the ICU with comorbidities for my liking. If you are one of those you really do need to bow out of some of the invitations you get for family and friend gatherings...even when everyone there is fully vaccinated.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Maybe that is why they bring their kids with them to witness them screaming, swearing and throwing stones at the PM......on their behalf.
> 
> Gee........thanks mom.


 ... and those that don't bring their kids do the "brainwashing protest" session*s* at home. God help them.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Looks good. It might get you some free drinks and hot babes in the unvaxxed crowd.


 ... the "look at me!!!!", I desperately need all the attention that I can get!!!! And who''ll be taking the selfies in the Covid ICU? The nurse, the doc?


----------



## sags

There is a segment of the population who either can't get vaccinated due to medical reasons, or they could be alone and immobile, or they are panic stricken at any needles.

I don't know why they can't set up a drive thru clinic where people can drive them to get their shot and they can hang their arm out the window. The biggest concern for those people is fear they will pass out and create a scene. A mobile clinic could vaccinate or paramedics could go around to people booking one at home. Extreme panic is real and disabling for the person. It just overwhelms them and has symptoms similar to a heart attack. They often end up in the ER where a doctor has to calm them down. Sometimes the paramedics do the EKG tests etc and calm the person down. It is a big problem for those people.

Other than that......we have to vaccinate everyone else to reduce the spread so the un-vaccinated aren't exposed to it.

We have to starve this virus for new people to infect.......and then it will end.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> We have to starve this virus for new people to infect.......and then it will end.


That only happens when it eats most of the food available to it. 

Population exposure is the only way the remaining unvaccinated and those with comorbidities will ever be safe...and even then it won't be 100% but safe enough I would think.


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> ... the "look at me!!!!", I desperately need all the attention that I can get!!!! And who''ll be taking the selfies in the Covid ICU? The nurse, the doc?


Gotta stand up for what I believe in.
Call it what you want.

Also, as an early 30's male in optimal health without a weight, heart, or lung issue that doesn't smoke...

It's highly unlikely if I ever got covid I would need a hospital. But if I ever do, I'll get them to take the selfie for me.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Gotta stand up for what I believe in.
> Call it what you want.
> 
> Also, as an early 30's male in optimal health without a weight, heart, or lung issue that doesn't smoke...
> 
> It's highly unlikely if I ever got covid I would need a hospital. But if I ever do, I'll get them to take the selfie for me.


Obviously it’s your choice. But don’t you care about your parents/grandparents, older relatives etc? Without vaccination you are screwed if you want to travel internationally... even here, after introduction of vaccine passport, you would not be able to attend many events


----------



## KaeJS

gibor365 said:


> Obviously it’s your choice. But don’t you care about your parents/grandparents, older relatives etc? Without vaccination you are screwed if you want to travel internationally... even here, after introduction of vaccine passport, you would not be able to attend many events


My parents are also unvaxxed.
As are most of my friends.
My social circle largely believes covid is blown out of proportion and a bunch of BS. They wouldn't really be in my social circle if they didn't think like me, would they? So I have no qualms about not getting the vaccine for the sake of others, and I definitely, definitely have no qualms about not getting it for the sake of strangers. Not after people are publicly saying I should pay for my own ICU or healthcare costs lol. I have been paying into the system my whole life. It is my right to use that healthcare. But I guess it's fine if people smoke their whole life and then they need cancer treatment? They don't have to pay? That's cool? Cool. Makes a lot of sense.

If they don't want unvaxxed people at restaurants or whatever, then so be it. I won't go.

I refuse to do something by force. It is my right to not take the vaccine. I do not agree with any of this. If they want to create a two tier society, then I will live with that. I am sticking to my guns on this one. I believe it is extremely wrong.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> My parents are also unvaxxed.
> As are most of my friends.
> My social circle largely believes covid is blown out of proportion and a bunch of BS. They wouldn't really be in my social circle if they didn't think like me, would they? So I have no qualms about not getting the vaccine for the sake of others, and I definitely, definitely have no qualms about not getting it for the sake of strangers. Not after people are publicly saying I should pay for my own ICU or healthcare costs lol. I have been paying into the system my whole life. It is my right to use that healthcare. But I guess it's fine if people smoke their whole life and then they need cancer treatment? They don't have to pay? That's cool? Cool. Makes a lot of sense.
> 
> If they don't want unvaxxed people at restaurants or whatever, then so be it. I won't go.
> 
> I refuse to do something by force. It is my right to not take the vaccine. I do not agree with any of this. If they want to create a two tier society, then I will live with that. I am sticking to my guns on this one. I believe it is extremely wrong.


Sure, it's your right .... no arguments 
I also " refuse to do something by force" ... the government tried to force me to mix vaccines and I walked out 3 days because of that.



> My parents are also unvaxxed.
> As are most of my friends.


 Aren't you Russian/Ukranian?! 



> They wouldn't really be in my social circle if they didn't think like me, would they?


This is actually not true! In our social circle it's 50/50! The funny part that some of my friends stop seeing other friend because they unvaccinated . We interact with people regadless of their vaccination status!

But KaeJS, what about international travelling, indoor restaurants, gyms, sport activities etc... With vaccine passport next months you gonna give up a lot!


----------



## OptsyEagle

KaeJS said:


> My social circle largely believes covid is blown out of proportion and a bunch of BS.


What do they all think is going on in our hospitals and the ICUs? Is that just overblown BS?

I am actually curious. I have no argument with your own decision not to vaccinate. At your age, Covid-19 was, for the most part, other people's problem. I doubt your parents are in the group to be able to say that, however. In my opinion, they are just a lot luckier then the unvaccinated people currently in the ICU were. Not sure why your parents would want to depend so much on luck when there is a good way to put the odds more in their favour.


----------



## sags

I don't understand your philosophy KaeJS.

I am 71 with lots of co-morbidities, no interest in travel, haven't dined in a restaurant more than a few times in the past 15 years, I have been there and done that, and have maybe 10-15 years left........maybe.

If anyone wouldn't bother to be vaccinated it is people like me.........but we got vaccinated.

You on the other hand, have your whole life ahead of you. You may want to travel and dine out with friends. You may want a family. You may have 50 years ahead of you. You have lots of life experiences you haven't had the time or opportunity to live yet.

So why take the chance of it all ending suddenly and not well ? Don't do it for other people. Do it for yourself and your future.

I know that for a lot of young adults the world looks pretty pathetic right now, but some day they will be making the decisons and shape their world.

Hang around and be a a part of that change.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> I don't understand your philosophy KaeJS.
> 
> I am 71 with lots of co-morbidities, no interest in travel, haven't dined in a restaurant more than a few times in the past 15 years, I have been there and done that, and have maybe 10-15 years left........maybe.
> 
> If anyone wouldn't bother to be vaccinated it is people like me.........but we got vaccinated.
> 
> You on the other hand, have your whole life ahead of you. You may want to travel and dine out with friends. You may want a family. You may have 50 years ahead of you. You have lots of life experiences you haven't had the time or opportunity to live yet.
> 
> So why take the chance of it all ending suddenly and not well ? Don't do it for other people. Do it for yourself and your future.
> 
> I know that for a lot of young adults the world looks pretty pathetic right now, but some day they will be making the decisons and shape their world.
> 
> Hang around and be a a part of that change.


 ... what a sad post for the poster you're responding to.


----------



## KaeJS

gibor365 said:


> Sure, it's your right .... no arguments
> I also " refuse to do something by force" ... the government tried to force me to mix vaccines and I walked out 3 days because of that.
> 
> Aren't you Russian/Ukranian?!
> 
> 
> This is actually not true! In our social circle it's 50/50! The funny part that some of my friends stop seeing other friend because they unvaccinated . We interact with people regadless of their vaccination status!
> 
> But KaeJS, what about international travelling, indoor restaurants, gyms, sport activities etc... With vaccine passport next months you gonna give up a lot!


Am not Russian or Ukrainian.
But I do love all the Slavic dishes... Burek, chevaps... A good drink of rakija. Russian and Ukrainian women are also gorgeous.

I'm just a mixed caucasian guy.

Right now, I do not care about international travel or restaurants or anything like that. I will just focus on working and doing things I can enjoy. Winter is coming... So it's not a big deal right now.

Also, I do believe when all this clowning around is over, they will lift the vaccine passports eventually. At least, let's hope so. I will wait it out. I can always get the vaccine, but I can't undo it once it's done. Only fools rush in. =)


----------



## gibor365

sags said:


> I don't understand your philosophy KaeJS.


What you don't understand?! KaeJS is a rebel 



> So why take the chance of it all ending suddenly and not well ? Don't do it for other people. Do it for yourself and your future.


It can end either way regardless of your vaccination status 
In Israel 60% of hospitalized are fully vaccinated and 87% of them are 60+.
It shows that vaccines are practically useless. Ontario here just playing with numbers as they want to realize all vaccins they have. Interesting that they put big chunk of hospitalized people with label "vaccination status unknown" as not-vaccinated when giving us %


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Gotta stand up for what I believe in.
> Call it what you want.
> 
> Also, as an early 30's male in optimal health without a weight, heart, or lung issue that doesn't smoke...
> 
> It's highly unlikely if I ever got covid I would need a hospital. But if I ever do, I'll get them to take the selfie for me.


 ... so "just what is it that" you're believe in? Covid is a hoax? Your chances of getting Covid is 100% by being vaccinated? Or you're invincible? I'm curious.

Btw, the nurses and doctors will be too busy trying to save your buddies in that ICU to be able to take a selfie for you. And I don't believe you'll be able to lift a finger to your camera whilst intubated.


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> What you don't understand?! KaeJS is a rebel


 ... a rebel without a cause.


----------



## KaeJS

OptsyEagle said:


> What do they all think is going on in our hospitals and the ICUs? Is that just overblown BS?
> 
> I am actually curious. I have no argument with your own decision not to vaccinate. At your age, Covid-19 was, for the most part, other people's problem. I doubt your parents are in the group to be able to say that, however. In my opinion, they are just a lot luckier then the unvaccinated people currently in the ICU were. Not sure why your parents would want to depend so much on luck when there is a good way to put the odds more in their favour.


I mean... What do we have? 20 people out of 37 million dying per day? It's really not a lot. It's honestly nothing.

It's sad to say, but that is life. People die. People die from ignorance, negligence, mistakes, choices, accidents, natural causes, etc...

Have you been to a hospital? I've been to a couple since covid. Didn't seem slammed to me. I also had a family member require life threatening surgery a little while ago and they were able to get it...

Of course. This is anecdotal. I have no idea what is actually happening, how many beds are available, etc. But the news and media isn't exactly my most trusted source for information at the moment.

So, I really have no idea.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> I don't understand your philosophy KaeJS.
> 
> I am 71 with lots of co-morbidities, no interest in travel, haven't dined in a restaurant more than a few times in the past 15 years, I have been there and done that, and have maybe 10-15 years left........maybe.
> 
> If anyone wouldn't bother to be vaccinated it is people like me.........but we got vaccinated.
> 
> You on the other hand, have your whole life ahead of you. You may want to travel and dine out with friends. You may want a family. You may have 50 years ahead of you. You have lots of life experiences you haven't had the time or opportunity to live yet.
> 
> So why take the chance of it all ending suddenly and not well ? Don't do it for other people. Do it for yourself and your future.
> 
> I know that for a lot of young adults the world looks pretty pathetic right now, but some day they will be making the decisons and shape their world.
> 
> Hang around and be a a part of that change.


I don't think I will catch covid.
And if I did, I don't think I would die.

But I am not going to purposefully inject myself with the vaccine and purposely come into contact with it.


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> ... what a sad post for the poster you're responding to.


Could you elaborate?


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> I mean... What do we have? 20 people out of 37 million dying per day? It's really not a lot. It's honestly nothing.
> 
> It's sad to say, but that is life. People die. People die from ignorance, negligence, mistakes, choices, accidents, natural causes, etc...
> 
> Have you been to a hospital? I've been to a couple since covid. Didn't seem slammed to me. I also had a family member require life threatening surgery a little while ago and they were able to get it...
> 
> Of course. This is anecdotal. I have no idea what is actually happening, how many beds are available, etc. But the news and media isn't exactly my most trusted source for information at the moment.
> 
> So, I really have no idea.


 ... so you have been to a hospital but have you seen a person die? Or trying NOT to die?


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> ... so "just what is it that" you're believe in? Covid is a hoax? Your chances of getting Covid is 100% by being vaccinated? Or you're invincible? I'm curious.
> 
> Btw, the nurses and doctors will be too busy trying to save your buddies in that ICU to be able to take a selfie for you. And I don't believe you'll be able to lift a finger to your camera whilst intubated.


You make it seem like this is a real pandemic.

As if people are dying in the streets...

This is hardly a pandemic. Look around you. Have you been outside?


----------



## sags

KaeJS said:


> I don't think I will catch covid.
> And if I did, I don't think I would die.
> 
> But I am not going to purposefully inject myself with the vaccine and purposely come into contact with it.


I hope you are right. Live long and prosper.


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> ... so you have been to a hospital but have you seen a person die? Or trying NOT to die?


No.

But people die everyday, my friend.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Could you elaborate?


 ... this part sums it all.



> ... You on the other hand, have your whole life ahead of you. You may want to travel and dine out with friends. You may want a family. You may have 50 years ahead of you. You have lots of life experiences you haven't had the time or opportunity to live yet. ...


 ... but then you truly believe your chances of catching Covid and then not dying is "nil=zero", then by all means stay un-vaccinated. But I'm still curious as to what's that you "believe in, that you have to stand up for"? All I see is pure stubbornness and this is sad too, considering how young you are.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> *No.*
> 
> But people die everyday, my friend.


 ... figures. Yeah, people "die" everyday ... just like "stats" you read in the newspaper ... until you actually SEE it with your own eyes to be convinced otherwise.


----------



## OptsyEagle

KaeJS said:


> I mean... What do we have? 20 people out of 37 million dying per day? It's really not a lot. It's honestly nothing.
> 
> It's sad to say, but that is life. People die. People die from ignorance, negligence, mistakes, choices, accidents, natural causes, etc...
> 
> Have you been to a hospital? I've been to a couple since covid. Didn't seem slammed to me. I also had a family member require life threatening surgery a little while ago and they were able to get it...
> 
> Of course. This is anecdotal. I have no idea what is actually happening, how many beds are available, etc. But the news and media isn't exactly my most trusted source for information at the moment.
> 
> So, I really have no idea.


I can't argue with your observations. I have been to the hospital and they seem to be coping rather OK as well, of course, I don't think I would expect them to be falling apart at the seems visually, even when they should be. They are professionals, after all.

I look at it a little differently. I find it highly unlikely Premiers like Jason Kenny or Doug Ford would actually shut down most businesses if they were not genuinely concerned with hospital capacity. That is quite a drastic step for a couple of pro business guys like them. So I kind of have to believe Covid was causing a real problem.

I agree, Covid was never overly dangerous from a numerical perspective, but it was rather dangerous to specific groups. You of course were not in that group, but your parents certainly are.

You will get Covid and so will your parents. The virus is all over the planet. There is no way to avoid it. I will get it as well. I also agree that the odds are you will probably all live but the certainty of that is less for your parents then yourself and a couple of vaccine shots would certainly help tremendously when your time comes. It will definitely reduce your time of recovery by weeks. No matter how much I don't like the vaccine in me, I am not sure I want all that virus in me that long either. I have to assume the virus is the bigger health risk.

Anyway, thanks for your reply. Good luck.


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> ... this part sums it all.


I guess you just prefer to be a dick.
But that is your right. 



Beaver101 said:


> ... but then you truly believe your chances of catching Covid and then not dying is "nil=zero", then by all means stay un-vaccinated. But I'm still curious as to what's that you "believe in, that you have to stand up for"? All I see is pure stubbornness and this is sad too, considering how young you are.


You think it's sad that I'm standing up for it?

I literally have taken no precautions.
I have been having one night stands. Meeting new people. Going out. I don't even sanitize my hands after I pump gas, what an outrage!

It's been 1.5 years.
If I haven't caught it after 1.5 years, why would I get the vaccine now? Lol.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> I guess you just prefer to be a dick.
> But that is your right.
> 
> 
> 
> You think it's sad that I'm standing up for it?
> 
> I literally have taken no precautions.
> I have been having one night stands. Meeting new people. Going out. I don't even sanitize my hands after I pump gas, what an outrage!
> 
> It's been 1.5 years.
> If I haven't caught it after 1.5 years, why would I get the vaccine now? Lol.


 ... now we're getting somewhere.

I'm a dick and what are you who has literally taken no precautions? A Spreader? Not just Covid but STDs ... care to brag some more?

Lay it all out so everyone on this forum gets to know who really KaeJS is. I really like to see how tough this "rebel" is.

Btw, your one-night stand / dump on a bimbo is nothing new ... heard of that years ago.


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> ... now we're getting somewhere.
> 
> I'm a dick and what are you who has literally taken no precautions? A Spreader? Not just Covid but STDs ... care to brag some more?
> 
> Lay it all out so everyone on this forum gets to know who really KaeJS is. I really like to see how tough this "rebel" is.
> 
> Btw, your one-night stand / dump on a bimbo is nothing new ... heard of that years ago.


Quite the assumptions with your post.

You sound like a grumpy old boomer.


----------



## KaeJS

Actually, the more I think about it...

I'm not even sure I've ever seen a positive post from you on this forum.

You also like to take cryptic jabs at people just like humble_pie. Is she still around these parts? I bet you two would get along great.


----------



## sags

People going into a hospital won't notice a lot of changes. The lobby looks the same. The cafeteria may look the same. There aren't doctors and nurses running around all over. The elevators still go up and down. People still go in and out.

The COVID patients are isolated from all other patients. If you go to that area.........you will see some things you wished you hadn't.

Nurses and doctors having patients say goodbye to their families before they are put to sleep and intubated......often for weeks or months or they may never wake up again.

Doctors calling loved ones to tell them their loved one has passed away. Sons, daughters, parents, grandparents. You won't see the doctor with head in hand and watery eyes wondering when it will all end and how much longer they can do this every day.

You won't see the nurses bundle up the patients who have died to take to the morgue. You won't see patients gasping for breath and clawing the air while nurses try to calm them down. You won't see nurses frantically trying to start an IV to give the patient medications, but having problems finding a usable vein.

You won't see patients being fed through IV tubes and soiling themselves. You won't see the nurses trying to make a fresh clean bed under their lifeless bodies.

You won't see the doctors and nurses trying to revive a patient suffering a heart attack, by putting electricity through their body or jamming a long needle through their rib bones to inject the heart directly with medication. And yes, from what I have read they believe the patients do feel the pain.....but at least it is a momentary increase in brain wave patterns.......thank goodness for that.

You won't see any of that and be grateful that you won't.

But just because you don't see it when you enter a hospital, doesn't mean it isn't all happening where you aren't allowed to wander.

Maybe if people saw more of it their minds would change, but at this point as mentioned it has been over a year and minds are made up.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Quite the assumptions with your post.


 ... no assumption there - your post confirmed (aka coming directly from your mouth) the walls that whisper on this forum/internet.



> You sound like a grumpy old boomer.


 ... call me what you want but that's a reflection of the respect that I have for folks (inherently older) that have lots of life (real, not from the movies or internet forums) experience.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Actually, the more I think about it...
> 
> I'm not even sure I've ever seen a positive post from you on this forum.


 .. what/why do you care since I'm a dick.



> You also like to take cryptic jabs at people just like humble_pie. Is she still around these parts? I bet you two would get along great.


 ... no, humble_pie is from Quebec and I'm from Ontario. And no, we're not buddies nor do I share the same writing style as her or your allegations of "crytic jabs at people". And no, I don't know where she is - or are you missing her?


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> People going into a hospital won't notice a lot of changes. The lobby looks the same. The cafeteria may look the same. There aren't doctors and nurses running around all over. The elevators still go up and down. People still go in and out.
> 
> The COVID patients are isolated from all other patients. If you go to that floor.........you will see some things you wished you hadn't.
> 
> Nurses and doctors having patients say goodbye to their families before they are put to sleep and intubated......often for weeks or months or they may never wake up again.
> 
> Doctors calling loved ones to tell them their loved one has passed away. Sons, daughters, parents, grandparents. You won't see the doctor with head in hand and watery eyes wondering when it will all end and how much longer they can do this every day.
> 
> You won't see the nurses bundle up the patients who have died to take to the morgue. You won't see patients gasping for breath and clawing the air while nurses try to calm them down. You won't see nurses frantically trying to start an IV to give the patient medications, but having problems finding a usable vein.
> 
> You won't see patients being fed through IV tubes and soiling themselves. You won't see the nurses trying to make a fresh clean bed under their lifeless bodies.
> 
> Naw.......you won't see any of that and be grateful for it.
> 
> Maybe if people saw more of it their minds would change, but at this point as mentioned it has been over a year and minds are made up.


 ... it's okay sags. People have a right not to be vaccinated, not to see reality because those "scenes only happens in the movies", and "to some one else".


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> ... no assumption there - your post confirmed (aka coming directly from your mouth) the walls that whisper on this forum/internet.
> 
> ... call me what you want but that's a reflection of the respect that I have for folks (inherently older) that have lots of experience.


Actually, quite a lot of assumptions.

You don't know the medical history of my partners or myself. You don't know if I used protection or not. But suddenly now I'm not only a covid spreader but an STD spreader, as well?

I guess I should not live my life at all, for the sake of other people. Right?

I think you are not understanding, or maybe you just don't want to understand. It is not my job to vaccinate or stop living how I want to because the majority of people think I should. Regardless of how my actions and the way I live make you feel, it's ultimately a "you" problem.

I am sorry for those people who have lost their lives. It truly is sad.

At the same time, since you're such a martyr, why do you not give all your money and devote your time to helping poorer countries like Africa? Since you are such a great person in society and you make me out to be such a selfish rebel. What is it that you are doing for the world?

Do you want a pat on the back or a gold star for getting a vaccine?


----------



## Plugging Along

KaeJS said:


> My parents are also unvaxxed.
> As are most of my friends.
> My social circle largely believes covid is blown out of proportion and a bunch of BS. They wouldn't really be in my social circle if they didn't think like me, would they? So I have no qualms about not getting the vaccine for the sake of others, and I definitely, definitely have no qualms about not getting it for the sake of strangers. Not after people are publicly saying I should pay for my own ICU or healthcare costs lol. I have been paying into the system my whole life. It is my right to use that healthcare. But I guess it's fine if people smoke their whole life and then they need cancer treatment? They don't have to pay? That's cool? Cool. Makes a lot of sense.
> 
> If they don't want unvaxxed people at restaurants or whatever, then so be it. I won't go.
> 
> I refuse to do something by force. It is my right to not take the vaccine. I do not agree with any of this. If they want to create a two tier society, then I will live with that. I am sticking to my guns on this one. I believe it is extremely wrong.


Interesting, my co worker said the similar things. Their mom was in a care home and caught it early on, and was fine (though she did end up in the hospital). They ended up catching it too, (they don't take any precautions) and was fine. They believed it was over blown too, and had natural immunity so didn't vax. So here they are last weekend, their caught it, in less than 48 hours is in ICU. My coworker received a call to say good bye over the phone. He's still in ICU right now, he may or may not make it. On the other side, my friends who have taken all the precautions was just told their husbandS surgery was cancelled. 

I asked my coworker if they believe it wasn't so bad and did they wish their friends had been vaccinated? They said, 'Yeah'. So I asked if they were going to get vaccinated themselves and tell their friends to also or they still think that it's not so bad. 

The regret that they feel is awful, however too late. i heard them say people die all the time, I already had Covid, and am fine. When it’s someone you know personally like a parent, those words aren’t what you are thinking, One side of me wanted to remind them of the heartless words they said, but I am not heartless. I just wished them luck and hope they are out soon one way or another. 

i personally really like your shirt, I wish all anti vaxxers wore one. Then I could easily avoid them. just as an anti vaxer does have the right mot to get vaccinated (which I understand it is their body), I want the same rights to avoid them.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Actually, quite a lot of assumptions.
> 
> You don't know the medical history of my partners or myself. You don't know if I used protection or not. But suddenly now I'm not only a covid spreader but an STD spreader, as well?


 ... from your post #6243:



> *I literally have taken no precautions.*
> I have been having one night stands. Meeting new people. Going out. I don't even sanitize my hands after I pump gas, what an outrage!
> I guess I should not live my life at all, for the sake of other people. Right?


 ... does that sound like a responsible person?



> I think you are not understanding, or maybe you just don't want to understand. It is not my job to vaccinate or stop living how I want to because the majority of people think I should. Regardless of how my actions and the way I live make you feel, it's ultimately a "you" problem.


 ... seems more like you don't want to understand nor do you care to understand because you've just concluded that it is a "you" problem. Ie. it's not your problem that you choose not to be vaccinated and I=Beaver101 has a problem with that. I could care less if you vaccinate or not if this wasn't an "infectious" disease. What you have failed to realize this is not a "you or me" problem, this is a "our" problem or back to original saying "We are ALL in it together", meaning everyone one of us, not just you or me.



> I am sorry for those people who have lost their lives. It truly is sad.


 ... talk cost nothing.



> At the same time, since you're such a martyr, why do you not give all your money and devote your time to helping poorer countries like Africa? Since you are such a great person in society and you make me out to be such a selfish rebel. What is it that you are doing for the world?
> 
> Do you want a pat on the back or a gold star for getting a vaccine?


 ... I'm flattered you call me a martyr but then I don't qualify since I'm a dick. And I don't need a pat in the back nor a gold star for being vaccinated since every responsible human being with a conscience (plenty on this forum) didn't either for being vaccinated. I'm no more special than any of them.

PS: I'm guessing you didn't see the shrink as suggested awhile back from your thread "I can't stand it any longer with this pandemic!!!!"


----------



## OptsyEagle

Just as vaccine does not stop infection from all possible exposure situations, natural infection does not either. Natural infection is even more problematic because you have no idea of the dose of infection that your body decided to build a defense to. So although both vaccine and natural infection are protective, vaccine is definitely the better way to go, if for no other reason then it gives you a better ability to know the protection you have and don't have.

That said, both natural infection PLUS vaccine seems to be the Cadillac of protection and hopefully soon we should have some better data on it. I am thinking it should be enough to kill most of the breakthrough infections and drop the ability to transmit this pestilence down to percentage numbers nearing zero. They could probably start putting together some of that data now but I am thinking (maybe hoping) that the reason for the delay is you can't calculate the probability of infection or transmission when you don't have any. If that is the case I would like to think someone has started to notice that.


----------



## Beaver101

> If that is the case I would like to think someone has started to notice that.


 ... I'll believe it when I see it - the infection numbers are trending down, down, down to below 100 (not being greedy) but I don't seeing it happening anytime soon. We'll be lucky to see that mid-next year (2022) PROVIDED another deadly variant doesn't emerge.


----------



## damian13ster

You also have 13 times higher change of infection after vaccine than after natural protection.
So yes, you are gambling with a dose, but you are also getting significantly better protection against any variants.

This news is phenomenal. It means that Oakes test fails and you can't limit rights of people with natural immunity simply for not being immunized.









Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections


Background Reports of waning vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 have begun to surface. With that, the comparable long-term protection conferred by previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 remains unclear. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study comparing three groups...




www.medrxiv.org





SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13.06-fold (95% CI, 8.08 to 21.11) increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021. The increased risk was significant (_P_<0.001) for symptomatic disease as well. When allowing the infection to occur at any time before vaccination (from March 2020 to February 2021), evidence of waning natural immunity was demonstrated, though SARS-CoV-2 naïve vaccinees had a 5.96-fold (95% CI, 4.85 to 7.33) increased risk for breakthrough infection and a 7.13-fold (95% CI, 5.51 to 9.21) increased risk for symptomatic disease. SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees were also at a greater risk for COVID-19-related-hospitalizations compared to those that were previously infected.


----------



## Spudd

Deleted.


----------



## damian13ster

You don't get the consequence of it though.
People with natural protection have better protection for themselves and community than people with full vaccination but no previous infection.
For that reason, the Oakes test is not passed and you can't ignore Charter of Rights and Freedom.
You can't treat people with previous infection and no vaccination any different than people with full vaccination and no previous infection.


----------



## zinfit

For all the Alberta bashing over Covid it is puzzling to see Covid deaths at slightly below 12,000 in Quebec, something like 8,800 in Ontario, 1,100 in Manitoba and around 2400 in Alberta. On a per 100,000 people basis Alberta has a much lower death rate.


----------



## bgc_fan

zinfit said:


> For all the Alberta bashing over Covid it is puzzling to see Covid deaths at slightly below 12,000 in Quebec, something like 8,800 in Ontario, 1,100 in Manitoba and around 2400 in Alberta. On a per 100,000 people basis Alberta has a much lower death rate.


Are you talking about total deaths? You realize that things changed and that most of those deaths were at the start of the pandemic and covid was going through long term care homes. Given the demographics, Quebec and Ontario were obviously hit hardest for that. Not to mention the fact that based on population size, you'll have a lot more people traveling in and out of Quebec and Ontario than Alberta. 
The "bashing" you're seeing is about the current situation and the fact that even with the vaccines in play that Alberta cases and hospitalizations are getting as bad as when we DIDN'T have the vaccines. Sure you can disregard the ICU utilization rate, but that's leading to secondary effects, like postponing surgeries: Edmonton man’s surgery cancelled moments before it was set to begin | Globalnews.ca


----------



## zinfit

bgc_fan said:


> Are you talking about total deaths? You realize that things changed and that most of those deaths were at the start of the pandemic and covid was going through long term care homes. Given the demographics, Quebec and Ontario were obviously hit hardest for that. Not to mention the fact that based on population size, you'll have a lot more people traveling in and out of Quebec and Ontario than Alberta.
> The "bashing" you're seeing is about the current situation and the fact that even with the vaccines in play that Alberta cases and hospitalizations are getting as bad as when we DIDN'T have the vaccines. Sure you can disregard the ICU utilization rate, but that's leading to secondary effects, like postponing surgeries: Edmonton man’s surgery cancelled moments before it was set to begin | Globalnews.ca


not putting any spin on this . I am just laying out the facts without cherry picking any time segments.


----------



## cainvest

zinfit said:


> not putting any spin on this . I am just laying out the facts without cherry picking any time segments.


But then shouldn't you compare to all provinces per 100k?


----------



## bgc_fan

zinfit said:


> not putting any spin on this . I am just laying out the facts without cherry picking any time segments.


That's what you say, but you are putting a spin on it by ignoring the obvious difference in provinces. People aren't really concerned about what happened a year ago, they are more concerned about right now. But let's put it at a 100k person basis.
Quebec Ontario Alberta
Deaths 11,305 9,617 2,462
Population 8,627,516 14,883,042 4,466,091
Rate 100k 131.0 64.6 55.1

So Quebec is worst off, while Alberta is a little better than Ontario.

Again, if you want to ignore the factor that most of the deaths were in LTC facilities (69%). But with the vaccine, we should see a stable and not a large wave of ICU utilization, and other provinces are getting a better handle on the situation. But go ahead and pat yourself on the back and convince yourself that Alberta is doing currently doing better. Can't change the past, but can certainly deal with the current and future.

Edit: Better numbers from Health Canada:









You may want to pay attention to the recent death rate. Alberta is tied for number 1, so there's that.


----------



## gibor365

Not sure about other provinces, but ON constantly is giving fake numbers... they tell that 70-80% of reported death happened 2+ months ago .... do you really can trust those umbers>!


----------



## Beaver101

gibor365 said:


> Not sure about other provinces, but ON constantly is giving fake numbers... they tell that 70-80% of reported death happened 2+ months ago .... do you really can trust those umbers>!


 ... talking about yourself with the garbage spewings or retarded (your favourite word) brain? Have your pick there since a death means nothing to you as long as it doesn't include you.


----------



## Beaver101

Hamilton hospital had to cancel cardiac surgeries for entire day last week amid influx of COVID-19 patients

It will not surprise me lawsuits are going to be flying out from this debacle.


----------



## damian13ster

On what basis?


----------



## sags

Negligence by Provincial governments, I would guess.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> ... “_Sending home a 50-year-old patient with a weak heart and disease that carries high risk of sudden death is wrong. But we are starting to have no choice,” Dr. Richard Whitlock, a cardiac surgeon for Hamilton Health Sciences, said in a message posted to Twitter. “Our centre is now focusing on the sickest of COVID, those requiring ECMO. This proportion seems higher this wave as we are very early into it and we have already almost reached the peak number that needed ECMO in the 3rd wave.” ._..


 ... on the basis when that 50 year old dies (and not only him/her but other non-Covid-affected patients) (if you read into the article).

Part of the argument for that basis is here (also within that article):


> ... “_Those choosing to be unvaccinated are endangering others and themselves – they don’t need to be sick and in hospital,” Dr. Craig Ainsworth, Director of the Cardiac Care Unit at Hamilton General Hospital, said in the release. “My colleagues and I are fully vaccinated, we support hospital policy and expect that everyone will follow the science. It’s the right thing to do. _... ”


And please spare me the fatties, junkies and drunkies argument(s).


----------



## damian13ster

Yeah.
So do those getting fat
So do those smoking
So do those being stupid.

Yet getting fat, smoking, and stupidity isn't illegal in this country.

If you want accountability in health care system move to a country with a private health care system.
In Canada we will continue treating fat, smokers, as well as those making poor choices.


----------



## Beaver101

Strawman.


----------



## sags

The difference is none of any other groups are clogging up the hospitals by getting seriously sick and dying at the same time.

It is basic Canadian math.......the numbers of patients sick from covid are overwhelming the resources available to treat them.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> The difference is none of any other groups are clogging up the hospitals by getting seriously sick and dying at the same time.
> 
> It is basic Canadian math.......the numbers of patients sick from covid are overwhelming the resources available to treat them.


Of course they are.
Single biggest predictor for hospital usage is obesity.
Vast majority of hospital bed taken are by people who are obese.
It really isn't even close.

I am not for restricting access to healthcare or segregation at all.
If you were though, this is the first place to look at following pretty much any key


----------



## sags

Sick people are in the hospital.......no surprise there.

When people refuse to take their medicine....like vaccines, they are creating preventable problems for everyone else.

As far as I am concerned.........no vaccination = no right to go anywhere. They can stay home and look out the window.


----------



## damian13ster

The biggest sickness of 21st century is obesity.
When people refuse to take their medicine.....like exercise and healthy diet, they are creating preventable problems for everyone else.

As far as sags is concerned........no medicine = no right to go anywhere.

Seriously man. Stop selectively policing other people. Either apply same standards to everyone, or don't apply them at all. You are extremely similar to Nazi party ideologue - wake up!


----------



## cainvest

damian13ster said:


> The biggest sickness of 21st century is obesity.
> When people refuse to take their medicine.....like exercise and healthy diet, they are creating preventable problems for everyone else.


You got a point there however ... if I stand beside an overweight person I don't get their fat transferred to me.


----------



## damian13ster

cainvest said:


> You got a point there however ... if I stand beside an overweight person I don't get their fat transferred to me.


You are still stuck sometime in December 2020 

Vaccines DON'T prevent the spread.
You are equally likely to have virus transferred from vaccinated and unvaccinated.
Israel has highest spread of all countries and highest it ever had.

It really isn't complicated.

a) Vaccines don't prevent spread
b) Restrictions break multiple sections of charter (confirmed by courts)
c) Natural infection provides better protection than vaccines
d) People who went through infection are less of a danger than those vaccinated
e) Oakes test fails because of that
f) Because of above Section 1 doesn't allow breaking Charter


----------



## cainvest

damian13ster said:


> Vaccines DON'T prevent the spread.
> You are equally likely to have virus transferred from vaccinated and unvaccinated.


Nope, false!


----------



## damian13ster

cainvest said:


> Nope, false!


Show me a study that prove vaccinated people don't spread delta variant?
It has been proven that viral load vaccinated people carry is the same as in unvaccinated (as per CDC). There is hypothesis that they might spread it for shorter amount of time, but yet unproven.

Of course this conversation is completely hypothetical as any restriction targeting unvaccinated people with previous infection is completely illegal due to failure of Oakes test


----------



## Beaver101

cainvest said:


> You got a point there however ... if I stand beside an overweight person I don't get their fat transferred to me.


 ...


----------



## KaeJS

Why does nobody talk about math?

Why is everyone so concerned about shyt?

LOOK. AT. THE. NUMBERS.

Like my god... What are even the chances?

If you're a fear mongering covid person... Then wear a fucking body suit when you go outside and shut up already. Or better yet... Don't go out at all. Stop asking other people to do shyt because you're scared.

If you're scared, stay home.

This argument is so beyond me. I can't understand it. Since when did this world become such a "let me do this for everyone else" world.

What happened to being able to living a good life?


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Why does nobody talk about math?
> 
> Why is everyone so concerned about shyt?
> 
> LOOK. AT. THE. NUMBERS.
> 
> Like my god... What are even the chances?
> 
> If you're a fear mongering covid person... Then wear a fucking body suit when you go outside and shut up already. Or better yet... Don't go out at all. Stop asking other people to do shyt because you're scared.
> 
> If you're scared, stay home.
> 
> This argument is so beyond me. I can't understand it. Since when did this world become such a "let me do this for everyone else" world.
> 
> What happened to being able to living a good life?


james would tell that you are not sharing so-called "Canadian values" LOL


----------



## KaeJS

gibor365 said:


> james would tell that you are not sharing so-called "Canadian values" LOL


Born and raised Canadian (unfortunately, what an embarassment, to be honest).

So, I'd say all my values are truly Canadian. Sucks for James.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Born and raised Canadian (unfortunately, what an embarassment, to be honest).
> 
> So, I'd say all my values are truly Canadian. Sucks for James.


I'm proud that I wasn't "Born and raised Canadian" ... same with my son ... my daughter was born here , but I didn't raise her Canadian


----------



## KaeJS

gibor365 said:


> I'm proud that I wasn't "Born and raised Canadian" ... same with my son ... my daughter was born here , but I didn't raise her Canadian


As you shouldn't.

Many people will throw me under the bus for the comment (but let's be real, I don't have many friends on this board) but I honestly am so embarrassed of this country.

Being Canadian used to mean something. It meant you stood for what was right. Today? Who even knows. Now, we are just an old dog rolling over for a treat or a belly rub, waiting for scraps at the edge of the table while the Big Dogs eat well and talk about things important that don't concern us.

And yet... We remain loyal to everyone. Even if they fuk us.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> As you shouldn't.
> 
> Many people will throw me under the bus for the comment (but let's be real, I don't have many friends on this board) but I honestly am so embarrassed of this country.
> 
> Being Canadian used to mean something. It meant you stood for what was right. Today? Who even knows. Now, we are just an old dog rolling over for a treat or a belly rub, waiting for scraps at the edge of the table while the Big Dogs eat well and talk about things important that don't concern us.
> 
> And yet... We remain loyal to everyone. Even if they fuk us.


I live in Canada 22 years and the only bright period was during Harper ... since Trudeau started to rule the country going to [email protected] ... I'm very bearish for Canada ... this is place with no future


----------



## KaeJS

gibor365 said:


> I live in Canada 22 years and the only bright period was during Harper ... since Trudeau started to rule the country going to [email protected] ... I'm very bearish for Canada ... this is place with no future


It's refreshing to know I'm not the only one who sees it this way.


----------



## OptsyEagle

KaeJS. Your math argument falls apart once you acknowledge that a covid infection is inevitable for all of us. It is like you are saying, what are the odds of me catching a cold? On any given day it is pretty darn low. In a lifetime, it is a certainty. Covid is that cold now. It is all over the world. It is incubated by animals, so as to render any herd immunity in humans an impossibility, and of course, it would take years to infect everyone globally, so as to render herd immunity an option, anyway. Covid is here to stay, we will all meet up with it.

Now if someone was generous enough to offer you a safe (tested by billions of people) vaccine to prevent most of the severity of a cold, would you not give it a little more rational thought. Not only does the vaccine do that for covid, but you have to admit covid is definitely more dangerous then a common cold. After you remove your math on the probability of infection you are left with the math pertaining to your odds of survival and health result after infection. That is not too bad either but again, the vaccine takes care of that one and they are safe and free.

If you like math, why not deal with all the math. Bring the whole risk equation down to almost zero. The math you talk about is pointing us towards the best common sense approach.


----------



## Beaver101

^ The poor-me-little-man has to "stand up in what he believes in" ... which is? Must be something "special".


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ The poor-me-little-man has to "stand up in what he believes in" ... which is? Must be something "special".


Human rights?
Yeah, that's something "special".

I actually wonder how those without principles navigate their lives. Is it really just all about you and whatever whims take you, and forget about society, or is it something else?


----------



## zinfit

cainvest said:


> Nope, false!





damian13ster said:


> Show me a study that prove vaccinated people don't spread delta variant?
> It has been proven that viral load vaccinated people carry is the same as in unvaccinated (as per CDC). There is hypothesis that they might spread it for shorter amount of time, but yet unproven.
> 
> Of course this conversation is completely hypothetical as any restriction targeting unvaccinated people with previous infection is completely illegal due to failure of Oakes test


Not so. The virus in fully vaccinated people doesn't last more than 4 or 5 days. For the unvaccinated the average is much higher . If the vaccinated person has a high antibody count the level would be quite low. The virus is transmitted in molecules . The unvaccinated with signs of covid [coughing and sneezing] are a much bigger risk. I haven't the link but I am sure John Hopkins, the Mayo Clinic and CDC research confirms this .


----------



## damian13ster

The studies were looking at first 7 days. 
For first 7 days the viral loads were the same.

There is no data I was able to find past that. If you can find data for viral loads of vaccinated vs unvaccinated people for period beyond first 7 days then let me know.
In majority of countries (entire EU for example) it is a policy that if you don't develop symptoms within 10 days then you are fine to rejoin the society.
There would have to be massive difference in viral loads in days 8 and days 9 in that case for the spread to be materially different.

Vaccines help prevent hospitalization and death. They don't prevent spread


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> I haven't the link but I am sure John Hopkins, the Mayo Clinic and CDC research confirms this .


I can't support my claim, but I'm sure I'm right.

Well I would suggest that people who can't support their claims aren't correct in their claims.
In my experience, they are occasionally right.
However quite often, particularly with outrageous claims they're either completely wrong (sags does this lots), or they misrepresent the actual claim in the data they cite. This is why citing a source is important.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> The studies were looking at first 7 days.
> For first 7 days the viral loads were the same.
> 
> There is no data I was able to find past that. If you can find data for viral loads of vaccinated vs unvaccinated people for period beyond first 7 days then let me know.
> In majority of countries (entire EU for example) it is a policy that if you don't develop symptoms within 10 days then you are fine to rejoin the society.
> There would have to be massive difference in viral loads in days 8 and days 9 in that case for the spread to be materially different.
> 
> Vaccines help prevent hospitalization and death. They don't prevent spread


What that study looked at was "symptomatic covid infections" between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. They left out the huge difference in numbers of people who actually become symptomatically infected, when separated between unvaccinated or vaccinated. So that is what makes the biggest difference in how much a vaccinated person can transmit the virus when compared to unvaccinated.

Not only that, but they used PCR testing to determine viral load and that is fought with error. PCR testing pics up both dead and active virus. It only gives a rough approximation of viral load.

To add more insult to the conclusions of that study, they took two people, who looked to be about the same in sickness. They had no idea what size of infection each person (unvaccinated compared to vaccinated) was originally exposed to, that their bodies were currently fighting off. Since your final outcome will be related very closely to viral load, if you think about it, what they did was search and search and search until they found two people (one vaccinated the other unvaccinated) with the same viral load (looked to be about the same level of sickness) and said, "hey look at that , these two have the same viral load"? Wow. What a revelation.

Can you not see the ridiculousness in their conclusions. Fully vaccinated people will have a seriously reduced ability to transmit this virus, but unfortuneately, that ability has not been reduced to zero. For that we will probably require some level of virus exposure, but until then, vaccination is the best thing we have and it should be embraced by anyone who is truly tiring of this pandemic.


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> ^ The poor-me-little-man has to "stand up in what he believes in" ... which is? Must be something "special".


Just another one of your jabs that offers absolutely nothing to Optsy's post.

How old are you? I'm actually curious.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> What that study looked at was "symptomatic covid infections" between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. They left out the huge difference in numbers of people who actually become symptomatically infected, when separated between unvaccinated or vaccinated. So that is what makes the biggest difference in how much a vaccinated person can transmit the virus when compared to unvaccinated.
> 
> Not only that, but they used PCR testing to determine viral load and that is fought with error. PCR testing pics up both dead and active virus. It only gives a rough approximation of viral load.
> 
> To add more insult to the conclusions of that study, they took two people, who looked to be about the same in sickness. They had no idea what size of infection each person (unvaccinated compared to vaccinated) was originally exposed to, that their bodies were currently fighting off. Since your final outcome will be related very closely to viral load, if you think about it, what they did was search and search and search until they found two people (one vaccinated the other unvaccinated) with the same viral load (looked to be about the same level of sickness) and said, "hey look at that , these two have the same viral load"? Wow. What a revelation.
> 
> Can you not see the ridiculousness in their conclusions. Fully vaccinated people will have a seriously reduced ability to transmit this virus, but unfortuneately, that ability has not been reduced to zero. For that we will probably require some level of virus exposure, but until then, vaccination is the best thing we have and it should be embraced by anyone who is truly tiring of this pandemic.


With the constraints you put there is literally not a single study that passes it.
Please, keeping those restrictions in mind, post a study that proves vaccinations stop transmissions of delta variant?
Because when breaking human rights, the onus of proof is on the ones who violate the human rights, not on ones whose rights are violated


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> With the constraints you put there is literally not a single study that passes it.
> Please, keeping those restrictions in mind, post a study that proves vaccinations stop transmissions of delta variant?
> Because when breaking human rights, the onus of proof is on the ones who violate the human rights, not on ones whose rights are violated


Vaccination does not stop transmission of the virus, it just reduces it very significantly. That was the main point I wanted to clarify.

I am not going to apologize for poorly done studies. The one you posted had glaring holes in it. I just wanted to make sure everyone understands what it actually proved...very little.

As for human rights. My points have nothing to do with that. I assume you are talking about vaccine passports and mandatory vaccination. The problem there is who's rights are we actually talking about? The unvaccinated person or the other person they are about to infect. Since the vaccinated cannot infect as many people as the unvaccinated, they cannot be put into the same argument. The vaccinated have done everything asked of them. We are just waiting for the unvaccinated to step up and while we wait, protecting society as best we can. I do wish they would hurry up though. This pandemic is growing old and I would like to move forward.

I do agree with your other point. A previously infected person should be issued a vaccine passport even if they do not vaccinate and obtain the additional protection provided by the vaccines.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> With the constraints you put there is literally not a single study that passes it.
> Please, keeping those restrictions in mind, post a study that proves vaccinations stop transmissions of delta variant?
> Because when breaking human rights, the onus of proof is on the ones who violate the human rights, not on ones whose rights are violated


In aggregate the vaccine slows the spread, it does not stop it.

I think there is enough risk to restrict symptomatic people. Vaccination status is irrelevant.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> Vaccination does not stop transmission of the virus, it just reduces it very significantly. That was the main point I wanted to clarify.
> 
> I am not going to apologize for poorly done studies. The one you posted had glaring holes in it. I just wanted to make sure everyone understands what it actually proved...very little.
> 
> As for human rights. My points have nothing to do with that. I assume you are talking about vaccine passports and mandatory vaccination. The problem there is who's rights are we actually talking about? The unvaccinated person or the other person they are about to infect. Since the vaccinated cannot infect as many people as the unvaccinated, they cannot be put into the same argument. The vaccinated have done everything asked of them. We are just waiting for the unvaccinated to step up and while we wait, protecting society as best we can. I do wish they would hurry up though. This pandemic is growing old and I would like to move forward.
> 
> I do agree with your other point. A previously infected person should be issued a vaccine passport even if they do not vaccinate and obtain the additional protection provided by the vaccines.


Where do you have a data showing it reduces it significantly? Also, what is the definition of 'significantly'?
Viral load is quantitative. it can be measured, it can be compared. It isn't perfect, but you still didn't supply a study that is superior.

In regards to human rights it is quite easy actually. You have charter of rights and freedoms. It has multiple sections. Breaking any of them is violation of rights.
Now, in Canada, you can break human rights by using a loophole - Oakes test.
It is quite subjective, but basically three conditions need to be fulfilled.

The conditions necessary to pass Oakes test aren't fulfilled in rights violation of unvaccinated people with previous infection.

You are making an assumption that vaccination means moving forward and ending pandemic. It doesn't. It has been demonstrated in multiple countries with high vaccination rates.
Moving forward and ending pandemic is now purely political decision.
if there is political will - they can finish with it today.
If there is no political will - they can continue the pandemic until we all die by old age


----------



## KaeJS

OptsyEagle said:


> KaeJS. Your math argument falls apart once you acknowledge that a covid infection is inevitable for all of us.
> 
> If you like math, why not deal with all the math. Bring the whole risk equation down to almost zero. The math you talk about is pointing us towards the best common sense approach.


You always take the time to write well thought out posts without being rude so I feel obligated to respond.

You are correct about the math assuming the numbers and science and everything is correct. I have no argument.

Personally, there has been so much BS floating around in the last 1.5 years that I just can't be bothered with any of it. Remember when that woman said to wear a mask during sex?

Honestly, I'm just tired. It's exhausting, frustrating and annoying. I don't even know what to believe anymore. All I know is that I haven't had an issue with being unvaxxed thus far and I'm in a low risk group even if I were to get covid.

Thing is, I can't really lose.
If it is true the vaxx is slowing the spread or whatever it may be, then great. More people are getting vaxxed every single day. My chances decrease daily. But once again, it is their choice to get vaxxed and I'm not forcing anyone.

America has been mask free for basically all of 2021 and here we are... Still wearing masks... Adding vaccine passports...

It just gets worse and worse.
I'm waiting for the inevitable booster shots and 5th, 6th, 11th wave....


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> Where do you have a data showing it reduces it significantly? Also, what is the definition of 'significantly'?


Just look at the daily covid numbers, comparing vaccinated to unvaccinated, in any country or any jurisdiction.  If you don't get covid you will not transmit it. If a vaccinated person gets rid of covid quicker then an unvaccinated person, and they do, you will be able to transmit it for significantly less time. You can find this data everywhere. If you have not seen it, I don't know what to say. Perhaps you didn't relate its results to the question of transmission.


----------



## OptsyEagle

KaeJS said:


> You always take the time to write well thought out posts without being rude so I feel obligated to respond.
> 
> You are correct about the math assuming the numbers and science and everything is correct. I have no argument.
> 
> Personally, there has been so much BS floating around in the last 1.5 years that I just can't be bothered with any of it. Remember when that woman said to wear a mask during sex?
> 
> Honestly, I'm just tired. It's exhausting, frustrating and annoying. I don't even know what to believe anymore. All I know is that I haven't had an issue with being unvaxxed thus far and I'm in a low risk group even if I were to get covid.
> 
> Thing is, I can't really lose.
> If it is true the vaxx is slowing the spread or whatever it may be, then great. More people are getting vaxxed every single day. My chances decrease daily. But once again, it is their choice to get vaxxed and I'm not forcing anyone.
> 
> America has been mask free for basically all of 2021 and here we are... Still wearing masks... Adding vaccine passports...
> 
> It just gets worse and worse.
> I'm waiting for the inevitable booster shots and 5th, 6th, 11th wave....


We are all getting tired KaeJS.

I just want to make sure you and any others understand that slowing the spread just increases the time before you get infected. That does not really help, because longer time also makes you older. It makes you less healthy and pretty much just gives you more time to worry about it.

So, I know what you are saying. Right now the chances of you getting covid this week and dying is astronomically low. The chances of you getting covid in your lifetime, however, is getting very close to 100% IMO and since there is no time limit on a lifetime, except death, you cannot control how old you will be or how healthy you will be, when it happens. You really should get vaccinated. Get your body exposed to this virus as safely as you can, so you are ready for those future meetings.

To add to all that, the quicker the unvaccinated get vaccinated the quicker we can move on, if we are ever going to do so, but while too many remain unvaccinated, I have no doubt our leaders will leave us in limbo (that means wearing masks and taking precautions) to protect our healthcare system. Basically we are all just waiting for everyone to get vaccinated. I know there are many who say they will never do it, but that pretty much tells us how long we might be waiting then. They are deciding this. Not the vaccinated. We cannot let our healthcare facilities fail.

Perhaps in the spring, a few leaders like Jason Kenny might open up more and allow these unvaccinated to get their infections quicker and possibly safer, but I doubt many other leaders will. So again, we are in limbo, just waiting.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> Just look at the daily covid numbers, comparing vaccinated to unvaccinated, in any country or any jurisdiction. If you don't get covid you will not transmit it. If a vaccinated person gets rid of covid quicker then an unvaccinated person, and they do, you will be able to transmit it for significantly less time. You can find this data everywhere. If you have not seen it, I don't know what to say. Perhaps you didn't relate its results to the question of transmission.


You do realize though that testing guidelines and requirements are different for vaccinated vs unvaccinated, right?
Looking solely at number of positives is incredibly biased.
You would have to correct for multiple factors, such as guidelines, requirements, positivity rate, etc.
The single best policy to get to 0 positive cases is not to test  

Can you please refer to that data? Because you keep saying that yet refuse to provide a single study. 
So far only quantitative study I saw refers to viral loads for first 7 days. They are the same. They wouldn't be if the infection lasted much shorter for vaccinated vs unvaccinated.
It is estimated that infection if asymptomatic lasts less than 10 days (EU vaccine passport is based on that, so were quarantine rules) so if there is no difference in first 7 days it is weird to make assumption that they get rid of asymptomatic COVID faster. 
Again, I am happy to revisit my stance. Please, provide some data though on viral loads, ease of transfer, average length of infection, etc. 
You keep referring to it yet never actually show it


----------



## Money172375

If the experts know COVID restrictions will last years, do you think they would tell the public? I happened to talk to a health inspector from the local health unit. She said restrictions of some kind, will be with us for 2-5 years from the start of covid. ex. Wearing masks on a plane will be required for the forseaable future.

second…I seem to be reading stuff that suggests that the vaccines don’t lose efficacy over time…..rather they Appear ineffective after time in some people, because the immune response wasn’t strong enough. Does that suggest that if the immune response was strong, then 3rd shots won’t be required? Any truth to these observations?


----------



## gibor365

Money172375 said:


> If the experts know COVID restrictions will last years, do you think they would tell the public? I happened to talk to a health inspector from the local health unit. She said restrictions of some kind, will be with us for 2-5 years from the start of covid. ex. Wearing masks on a plane will be required for the forseaable future.
> 
> second…I seem to be reading stuff that suggests that the vaccines don’t lose efficacy over time…..rather they Appear ineffective after time in some people, because the immune response wasn’t strong enough. Does that suggest that if the immune response was strong, then 3rd shots won’t be required? Any truth to these observations?


Looking at Israel numbers where current daily cases greatly overpass those during 3rd wave where they only started vaccination . So, looks like it’s not “some people “, but all of them


----------



## cainvest

damian13ster said:


> So far only quantitative study I saw refers to viral loads for first 7 days. They are the same. They wouldn't be if the infection lasted much shorter for vaccinated vs unvaccinated.
> It is estimated that infection if asymptomatic lasts less than 10 days (EU vaccine passport is based on that, so were quarantine rules) so if there is no difference in first 7 days it is weird to make assumption that they get rid of asymptomatic COVID faster.


From the CDC ...

*Unvaccinated people remain the greatest concern:* The greatest risk of transmission is among unvaccinated people who are much more likely to get infected, and therefore transmit the virus. Fully vaccinated people get COVID-19 (known as breakthrough infections) less often than unvaccinated people. People infected with the Delta variant, including fully vaccinated people with symptomatic breakthrough infections, can transmit the virus to others. CDC is continuing to assess data on whether fully vaccinated people with asymptomatic breakthrough infections can transmit the virus.
*Fully vaccinated people with Delta variant breakthrough infections can spread the virus to others. However, vaccinated people appear to spread the virus for a shorter time: *For prior variants, lower amounts of viral genetic material were found in samples taken from fully vaccinated people who had breakthrough infections than from unvaccinated people with COVID-19. For people infected with the Delta variant, similar amounts of viral genetic material have been found among both unvaccinated and fully vaccinated people. However, like prior variants, the amount of viral genetic material may go down faster in fully vaccinated people when compared to unvaccinated people. This means fully vaccinated people will likely spread the virus for less time than unvaccinated people.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> Can you please refer to that data? Because you keep saying that yet refuse to provide a single study.


What is wrong with you. I told you where to find it. Any country. Any jurisdiction. Any day. Every vaccine trial. Pfizer, Moderna, Astra Zeneca, Johnson and Johnson. You see it everywhere. Vaccinated people get infected less then unvaccinated. Vaccinated people go to the hospital less then unvaccinated. Vaccinated people go to the ICU less the unvaccinated. If you don't get covid you don't transmit it. If you neutralize covid quicker, as vaccinated people do, you don't transmit it for as long. Hence the vaccines significantly reduce the ability of a vaccinated person to transmit covid-19.

I am not sure why you find this so difficult. I know it goes against your argument that vaccinated people transmit covid as much as unvaccinated, but as I have been telling you, that argument is wrong. It has been proven wrong so many ways and is proven wrong every day, everywhere in the world.

Here is Ontario. Take a look.






Datasets - Ontario Data Catalogue







covid-19.ontario.ca


----------



## agent99

KaeJS said:


> America has been mask free for basically all of 2021 and here we are... Still wearing masks... Adding vaccine passports...
> 
> It just gets worse and worse.
> I'm waiting for the inevitable booster shots and 5th, 6th, 11th wave....


I does get worse and worse. As of today, *1 of every 500* Americans has *DIED* of Covid since the first death last year. Doesn't that number get your attention?

Maybe the number would be a lot less if they had worn masks and got vaccinated.

You say you can't lose. Well, actually you can. You can *DIE*. If you want to live - get vaccinated now! Having other people vaccinated doesn't necessarily protect you.


----------



## bgc_fan

agent99 said:


> I does get worse and worse. As of today, *1 of every 500* Americans has *DIED* of Covid since the first death last year. Doesn't that number get your attention?
> 
> Maybe the number would be a lot less if they had worn masks and got vaccinated.
> 
> You say you can't lose. Well, actually you can. You can *DIE*. If you want to live - get vaccinated now! Having other people vaccinated doesn't necessarily protect you.


Funny, I thought that was exaggerated until I looked at the numbers, but yeah, that is pretty bad.

But, I'll throw out the usual counter arguments: "But they were fat/old/unhealthy/pre-existing conditions, and that won't happen to me because x,y,z."

There's no point in arguing. Until someone close to them actually dies of covid, they're not going to change their minds. And sometimes, not even then because they'll convince themselves it wasn't actually covid, it was because they were unhealthy or old.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Masks would not have saved most of those people, assuming we are not going to wear them forever. Even in the areas with mandated masks, many people that died wore masks quite often. The reason they died was they took them off too often. They simply were not wearing one when they obtained their deadly infection. That problem will always continue. As we should all know by personal observation, removing the mask gets a lot more frequent as more of our friends and family are vaccinated.

Vaccines on the other hand, would have saved most of those people.

Vaccines will eventually get rid of the need for masks if only everyone would get vaccinated.


----------



## agent99

bgc_fan said:


> Funny, I thought that was exaggerated until I looked at the numbers, but yeah, that is pretty bad.
> 
> But, I'll throw out the usual counter arguments: "But they were fat/old/unhealthy/pre-existing conditions, and that won't happen to me because x,y,z."
> 
> There's no point in arguing. Until someone close to them actually dies of covid, they're not going to change their minds. And sometimes, not even then because they'll convince themselves it wasn't actually covid, it was because they were unhealthy or old.


People like these?








Couple die of COVID and leave behind 5 kids, including newborn daughter


“They were the kindest, most amazing people. They were the ones who got everyone together — for every birthday, every holiday.”




www.today.com





Re the 1 in 500, for those who think that is a made up number -
Population of USA 333,336,637
Number of Covid related deaths at present 684,797.
Do the math.
(1 in 487 now and getting worse)

Canada's numbers are a bit better, but still scary - 1 in 1400 of us have died from Covid.

I am not arguing - Just posting some facts. If they only influence one person to get vaccinated (and wear a mask), it will have been worth while.


----------



## gibor365

agent99 said:


> People like these?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Couple die of COVID and leave behind 5 kids, including newborn daughter
> 
> 
> “They were the kindest, most amazing people. They were the ones who got everyone together — for every birthday, every holiday.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.today.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Re the 1 in 500, for those who think that is a made up number -
> Population of USA 333,336,637
> Number of Covid related deaths at present 684,797.
> Do the math.
> (1 in 487 now and getting worse)
> 
> Canada's numbers are a bit better, but still scary - 1 in 1400 of us have died from Covid.
> 
> I am not arguing - Just posting some facts. If they only influence one person to get vaccinated (and wear a mask), it will have been worth while.


This is life! Yes, people are dying...
_Every year, *about 647,000 Americans die* from heart disease, making it the leading cause of death in the United States. Heart disease causes 1 out of every 4 deaths .Sep. 1, 2021_
It's almost twice more than from Covid. Similar number for cancer.

And couples die not only from Covid


----------



## sags

Yea, but covid deaths are on top of all the other causes of death.


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Yea, but covid deaths are on top of all the other causes of death.


False statement. Cancer and heart conditions are higher.


----------



## zinfit

KaeJS said:


> Why does nobody talk about math?
> 
> Why is everyone so concerned about shyt?
> 
> LOOK. AT. THE. NUMBERS.
> 
> Like my god... What are even the chances?
> 
> If you're a fear mongering covid person... Then wear a fucking body suit when you go outside and shut up already. Or better yet... Don't go out at all. Stop asking other people to do shyt because you're scared.
> 
> If you're scared, stay home.
> 
> This argument is so beyond me. I can't understand it. Since when did this world become such a "let me do this for everyone else" world.
> 
> What happened to being able to living a good life?


I can sympathize with one exception. If the cases rise to the level that the hospital and treatment facilities get overwhelmed with unvaccinated covid patients and people can't receive medical treatment we have a problem.


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> Yea, but covid deaths are on top of all the other causes of death.


I either don't understand or I don't see the relevance of that statement. Of course people also die from other causes. They always have. Covid deaths in past 12 months are almost as high as the annual figures for the two other major causes of death - heart disease and cancer.

The 1 in 500 number is deaths caused by COVID alone. Contributed to:

by those who won't get vaccinated.
by those who don't comply with mask and other covid health control requirements.
by relaxation of rules for large gatherings etc

We won't be out of this any time soon.


----------



## agent99

zinfit said:


> False statement. Cancer and heart conditions are higher.


There are of course no official published numbers yet for 2021. Covid deaths in USA were lower than heart and cancer in 2020, but not by that much. This has changed in 2021.

Projected covid number to Dec 1 2021 is 711,000 - 843,000 depending on use of masks and other factors. (cummulative numbers)


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> Funny, I thought that was exaggerated until I looked at the numbers, but yeah, that is pretty bad.


Yeah, the American situation is horrendous. Their death rate, per capita, is astoundingly bad.

This whole pandemic has taught me one important lesson. Imminent and direct threat to life does not seem to motivate people as much as I would have thought! I keep thinking about how Americans were so incredibly afraid of terrorism. They were in a constant state of fear and paranoia ... and yet very few Americans have ever died of terrorism. There just wasn't much of a threat.

Now COVID comes along, which is objectively much worse. But who gives a sh*t, right?



bgc_fan said:


> There's no point in arguing. Until someone close to them actually dies of covid, they're not going to change their minds.


Yeah, I think this is true.

Even at the very start of the pandemic, for a while I thought this was overblown. Then a few people close to me got covid. My business colleague caught it and got very sick. My cousin and her husband both caught it.

Then he (around age 35) ended up in hospital with double pneumonia. That's when I started getting really scared. And then someone else I know caught it, started coughing blood, and landed in the hospital. He was in really bad shape.

But until my own friends and family started landing in hospital, I had trouble calibrating the threat.


----------



## Synergy

zinfit said:


> False statement. Cancer and heart conditions are higher.


Most of these deaths are lifestyle induced, preventable, etc. Tying up our hospitals, costing billions of dollars each year, etc. Once COVID is under control we can implement a fat tax and healthy lifestyle pass.


----------



## sags

Of course the other causes of death continue, as well as the demand for treatment and hospitalizations for all medical issues continue as normal.

Additional deaths due to covid are a further strain on the healthcare system, and often needless waste of life and resources people were vaccinated.

Our hospitals were already full to capacity and practicing hallway medicine and putting patients in cloakrooms.......before the covid pandemic.

Now all those patients for surgeries or treatments are waiting in even longer lines.

Covid just made a bad situation much worse.


----------



## sags

zinfit said:


> False statement. Cancer and heart conditions are higher.


Huh.......covid deaths are in addition to (on top of) all other causes of death.


----------



## sags

'I apologize,' Kenney says as Alberta declares state of public health emergency



https://www.cbc.ca/news


----------



## sags

_"Nothing like this has happened before. We're on the precipice of not being able to provide appropriate care to people," said Dr. Mike Weldon, an emergency room physician who works at the hospital in Red Deer, a city of about 101,000 people, roughly midway between Calgary and Edmonton. _

Other Provinces should pay heed to what happens when restrictions are removed during a pandemic.

Hopefully the neighboring Provinces can receive some patients, but their hospitals are also under pressure.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/red-deer-hospital-transfers-icu-covid-1.6176605


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Human rights?
> Yeah, that's something "special".


 ... seriously, you finally figured this out? Only problem is your next response which confirms the world only centers around "your" rights. 



> I actually wonder how those without principles navigate their lives. Is it really just all about you and whatever whims take you, and forget about society, or is it something else?


 ... talking about yourself again? The chameleon that doesn't change its spots but only in human form as a spin master.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Just another one of your jabs that offers absolutely nothing to Optsy's post.


 ... unlike you who is just figuring this out, I don't have all day to read his long-winded posts that offers me nothing in return except maybe smoking-circles of which I don't want to look at either.



> How old are you? I'm actually curious.


 ... as old as you want me to be. As per your earlier post, I'm a grumpy old boomer, only not "as tired, as frustrated, as exhausting and annoying" as only you're .

Almost forgot to add - throw in your earlier labelling that "I'm a dick" so I get to respond accordingly.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> If the experts know COVID restrictions will last years, do you think they would tell the public? I happened to talk to a health inspector from the local health unit. She said restrictions of some kind, will be with us for 2-5 years from the start of covid. ex. Wearing masks on a plane will be required for the forseaable future.
> 
> second…I seem to be reading stuff that suggests that the vaccines don’t lose efficacy over time…..rather they Appear ineffective after time in some people, because the immune response wasn’t strong enough. Does that suggest that if the immune response was strong, then 3rd shots won’t be required? Any truth to these observations?


 ... can't comment on the 2nd paragraph since I'm no vaccine expert. But the first one appears to be the trend.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> What is wrong with you. I told you where to find it. Any country. Any jurisdiction. Any day. Every vaccine trial. Pfizer, Moderna, Astra Zeneca, Johnson and Johnson. You see it everywhere. Vaccinated people get infected less then unvaccinated. Vaccinated people go to the hospital less then unvaccinated. Vaccinated people go to the ICU less the unvaccinated. If you don't get covid you don't transmit it. If you neutralize covid quicker, as vaccinated people do, you don't transmit it for as long. Hence the vaccines significantly reduce the ability of a vaccinated person to transmit covid-19.
> 
> I am not sure why you find this so difficult. I know it goes against your argument that vaccinated people transmit covid as much as unvaccinated, but as I have been telling you, that argument is wrong. It has been proven wrong so many ways and is proven wrong every day, everywhere in the world.
> 
> Here is Ontario. Take a look.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Datasets - Ontario Data Catalogue
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid-19.ontario.ca


Because that data has literally millions of uncontrolled variables.
That's why you have scientific research. To control variables that introduce bias.
And that's what I am asking for. Scientific research on viral loads of Delta variant in vaccinated people.
Or scientific research on whether vaccinated people shed the virus at different rate than unvaccinated.

Key word: scientific research
Need to minimize uncontrolled variables and biases. Looking at case numbers is useless since the single biggest factor influencing that is amount of tests.


i really appreciate your post. They are well written and relatively well thought out.
We are going in circles though. You are posting narrative, I posted scientific research (albeit with flaws).
Which one controls for variables better? Which one looks at specific factor more accurately?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> Human rights?
> Yah, that's something "special".
> 
> 
> 
> ... seriously, you finally figured this out? Only problem is your next response which confirms the world only centers around "your" rights.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I actually wonder how those without principles navigate their lives. Is it really just all about you and whatever whims take you, and forget about society, or is it something else?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> ... talking about yourself again? The chameleon that doesn't change its spots but only in human form as a spin master.
> 
> Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Sorry, I was being a bit tongue in cheek, I thought human rights was a key issue for everyone. Apparently it is not.

Yes, I actually center my political views around a respect for human rights. 
If you've been paying attention, you've noticed I'm arguing for the human rights of others, WHO I DISAGREE WITH.

Now if I'm defending the rights of others, to act in a way that I do not want them to act, because I respect their right to do so, how is that about my rights?

To be honest, I actually think that strong, consistent, support for human rights benefits EVERYBODY, including me. So maybe I'm willing to put the good of society first, simply for my own benefit. I'm okay if you think that's self centered of me.

I actually think it is VERY bad for society when we start picking and choosing exactly who gets what rights and when they get them in what circumstances. That's a dangerous road, which has typically led to very bad things. I don't want those bad things to happen, not to me, not to you, not to anyone.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> If the experts know COVID restrictions will last years, do you think they would tell the public?


We know they won't.
They've known since at least March 2020, and they've been lying the whole time.



> I happened to talk to a health inspector from the local health unit. She said restrictions of some kind, will be with us for 2-5 years from the start of covid. ex. Wearing masks on a plane will be required for the forseaable future.
> 
> second…I seem to be reading stuff that suggests that the vaccines don’t lose efficacy over time…..rather they Appear ineffective after time in some people, because the immune response wasn’t strong enough. Does that suggest that if the immune response was strong, then 3rd shots won’t be required? Any truth to these observations?


Many vaccines need boosters. Tetanus is a very common one, (5 years?) but there are others.
Also since we all get Coronaviruses repeatedly, it's a very common virus, I'd be surprised if COVID19 happens to be the exception where we don't need boosters.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> Because that data has literally millions of uncontrolled variables.
> That's why you have scientific research. To control variables that introduce bias.
> And that's what I am asking for. Scientific research on viral loads of Delta variant in vaccinated people.
> Or scientific research on whether vaccinated people shed the virus at different rate than unvaccinated.
> 
> Key word: scientific research
> Need to minimize uncontrolled variables and biases. Looking at case numbers is useless since the single biggest factor influencing that is amount of tests.
> 
> 
> i really appreciate your post. They are well written and relatively well thought out.
> We are going in circles though. You are posting narrative, I posted scientific research (albeit with flaws).
> Which one controls for variables better? Which one looks at specific factor more accurately?


The difference in our circle here is yours is based on hope of being right because you seem to feel you need it to make a point about the inequity of vaccine passports and mandatory vaccination.

I am not going to nitpik on uncontrolled variables. I am pretty sure the vaccine trials were about as controlled and scientific as any study can be. You need to stop harping on the wrong statement that the vaccines do not reduce transmission of the virus significantly by vaccinated people. It is not just that it is wrong, and I think you must be starting to see that by now, since as I said, it is proved numerous times, every day, every where in the world, by multiple agencies. The more important reason you need to stop posting that myth of yours is because it just gives another reason for the unvaccinated to hold onto their wrong conclusions not to vaccinate.

For anyone who has had a debate with an unvaccinated person, I think they know what I mean. They tell you their main concern against vaccination. You proceed, with as much empathy as possible, to explain why they are not totally correct or missing a more important risk, and although they never acknowledge you being right (very problematic human issue with way too many people) but they simply move away from their main argument and then start complaining about some other issue that is even more ridiculous then the first one. I am just trying to stem that off, so we can get them vaccinated, and end this bloody pandemic and all the inequities of freedom it is creating, by them not being vaccinated.


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> Almost forgot to add - throw in your earlier labelling that "I'm a dick" so I get to respond accordingly.


You're a dick. 😃


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> The difference in our circle here is yours is based on hope of being right because you seem to feel you need it to make a point about the inequity of vaccine passports and mandatory vaccination.
> 
> I am not going to nitpik on uncontrolled variables. I am pretty sure the vaccine trials were about as controlled and scientific as any study can be. You need to stop harping on the wrong statement that the vaccines do not reduce transmission of the virus significantly by vaccinated people. It is not just that it is wrong, and I think you must be starting to see that by now, since as I said, it is proved numerous times, every day, every where in the world, by multiple agencies. The more important reason you need to stop posting that myth of yours is because it just gives another reason for the unvaccinated to hold onto their wrong conclusions not to vaccinate.
> 
> For anyone who has had a debate with an unvaccinated person, I think they know what I mean. They tell you their main concern against vaccination. You proceed, with as much empathy as possible, to explain why they are not totally correct or missing a more important risk, and although they never acknowledge you being right (very problematic human issue with way too many people) but they simply move away from their main argument and then start complaining about some other issue that is even more ridiculous then the first one. I am just trying to stem that off, so we can get them vaccinated, and end this bloody pandemic and all the inequities of freedom it is creating, by them not being vaccinated.


The vaccine trials were made before delta variant. The results are for alpha.

Why does it make unvaccinated want to stay unvaccinated?
They WORK. They STOP HOSPITALIZATIONS. That's a huge benefit and a good reason to be vaccinated.
I am not willing to lie and say they stop transmission just to achieve some goal. Lying is wrong. People are allowed to make educated decisions, based on facts, and not narratives or well-meant falsehoods.

And yes, segregation of society is bad. We saw what it lead to in first half of 20th century and we are doing exactly the same thing now. Learn history. Not just 1939-1945 but what has led to it.

Now let's look at actual legal perspective:
Oakes test fails for unvaccinated people with previous infection vs vaccinated people.
For that reason you can't break other sections of charter.
Therefore vaccine passports are a terrible idea unless you think it is good idea to
a) ignore the law and charter
b) tell people that a way for them to get freedom is to get infected because Oakes test fails for people with previous infections. One can argue it doesn't fail for unvaccinated people without previous infection


----------



## agent99

KaeJS said:


> You're a dick. 😃


Something to keep in mind - this one case when a Bigger Dick is not a good thing


----------



## cainvest

damian13ster said:


> I am not willing to lie and say they stop transmission just to achieve some goal.


I don't think anyone claimed vaccines completely stop transmission but rather reduce it to some degree. So even a small gain in reduced transmission is good and doesn't make it a lie.

Just like what the CDC says,

*Fully vaccinated people with Delta variant breakthrough infections can spread the virus to others. However, vaccinated people appear to spread the virus for a shorter time*


----------



## zinfit

agent99 said:


> There are of course no official published numbers yet for 2021. Covid deaths in USA were lower than heart and cancer in 2020, but not by that much. This has changed in 2021.
> 
> Projected covid number for 12 months Dec1 2020 to Dec 1 2021 is 750,868. That is higher than the Heart or Cancer numbers for 2020.


US data for 2020 shows 690,000 deaths connected to heart conditions and 606,000 from cancer. Both numbers were higher than covid deaths. The total covid deaths including all of 2020 and year to date is 667,000. I am sure the rates for heart disease and cancer will not be significantly different for 2021.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> I don't think anyone claimed vaccines completely stop transmission but rather reduce it to some degree. So even a small gain in reduced transmission is good and doesn't make it a lie.


Absolutely, we should all get vaccinated.



> Just like what the CDC says,
> 
> *Fully vaccinated people with Delta variant breakthrough infections can spread the virus to others. However, vaccinated people appear to spread the virus for a shorter time*


Which means if you have COVID19, vaccinated or not, you should isolate and be segregated as you might infect others.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> The vaccine trials were made before delta variant. The results are for alpha.
> 
> Why does it make unvaccinated want to stay unvaccinated?
> They WORK. They STOP HOSPITALIZATIONS. That's a huge benefit and a good reason to be vaccinated.
> I am not willing to lie and say they stop transmission just to achieve some goal. Lying is wrong. People are allowed to make educated decisions, based on facts, and not narratives or well-meant falsehoods.
> 
> And yes, segregation of society is bad. We saw what it lead to in first half of 20th century and we are doing exactly the same thing now. Learn history. Not just 1939-1945 but what has led to it.
> 
> Now let's look at actual legal perspective:
> Oakes test fails for unvaccinated people with previous infection vs vaccinated people.
> For that reason you can't break other sections of charter.
> Therefore vaccine passports are a terrible idea unless you think it is good idea to
> a) ignore the law and charter
> b) tell people that a way for them to get freedom is to get infected because Oakes test fails for people with previous infections. One can argue it doesn't fail for unvaccinated people without previous infection


OK. Lets agree to disagree. I am just trying to tell you that if you want to make a point stick you want to anchor on evidence that is correct and not wrong. Vaccinated people transmit delta variant less then unvaccinated. Perhaps more then the original virus but since that virus is in the history books now, it is irrelevant. The evidence of reduced Delta transmission is posted everywhere, every day, around the world. They cannot all be corrupted data, so lets leave that nonsense behind.

Anything that makes the vaccines look less effective seems to offer unvaccinated people the ability to anchor on that and it just gets in the way of what has to be done. *Until they vaccinate the pandemic can not end. *I really wish someone would tell them that. No one is going to allow us to go forward while they continue to topple our hospitals, and until they vaccinate that is precisely what they will do and are doing.

My argument has nothing to do with freedoms. I want this pandemic over. I would imagine others do as well but they keep posting and arguing about things that either distract or simply get in the way of ending this pandemic...and that is when I post.

I will leave you to your objective but you have lots to work with so I would not anchor on bad theories like your transmission one, but that is just me. Some feel if they repeat a bad theory enough times that should make it right. It rarely does.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Anything that makes the vaccines look less effective seems to offer unvaccinated people the ability to anchor on that and it just gets in the way of what has to be done. *Until they vaccinate the pandemic can not end. *No one is going to allow us to go forward while they topple our hospitals and until they vaccinate, that is precisely what they will do.


No, until we stop the overwhelming of our health care system the pandemic measures can not end.
Vaccination is one of the tools, but not the only one.

Vaccination alone, with the current vaccines, isn't enough to "end the pandemic", at least in my opinion, and based on the data coming out of some areas.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> No, until we stop the overwhelming of our health care system the pandemic measures can not end.
> Vaccination is one of the tools, but not the only one.
> 
> Vaccination alone, with the current vaccines, isn't enough to "end the pandemic", at least in my opinion, and based on the data coming out of some areas.


OK, so you told us what won't work. Now tell us what will work. What will get us to remove our masks, go on with our lives and not topple our healthcare system.


----------



## agent99

zinfit said:


> *I am sure the rates for heart disease and cancer will not be significantly different for 2021.*


I am not _sure_, but also _think_ that is likely. However, covid deaths in USA are still rising and could be significantly higher than in 2020. They _may_ still be lower than the other two major causes, but at least in same ballpark. Time will tell.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> OK, so you told us what won't work. Now tell us what will work. What will get us to remove our masks, go on with our lives and not topple our healthcare system.


Right now? Nothing.
We currently aren't able to stop COVID19 and return to normal yet. No politician will say this, because they want to be elected, and you don't win points for telling the truth to people who don't want to hear it.


We don't have a vaccine that is effective enough, though the current one helps a lot.

I think we should balance with restrictions and continue, and try to keep from overloading our systems.

There is no perfect solution, and I think people need to grow up and realize that you can't always get what you want.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> OK, so you told us what won't work. Now tell us what will work. What will get us to remove our masks, go on with our lives and not topple our healthcare system.


One of the things that would work is increasing hospital capacity.
Amount of hospital beds in Canada per capita is very low compared to some other developed countries. 
This is despite lack of home care, which is an approach that some other countries have taken to lessen loads on hospitals.
And that is with disproportionately high spending on health care


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> One of the things that would work is increasing hospital capacity.
> Amount of hospital beds in Canada per capita is very low compared to some other developed countries.
> And that is despite disproportionately high spending on health care


We spend 11.5% of our GDP on Health care.





Health spending | CIHI


An overview of health spending, including general reports and analyses.




www.cihi.ca




.

That's about 1/9th of our entire GDP on Health care.
Not food, shelter or other essentials.

We really need to get serious about efficiency and exactly how much health care we can afford to pay for. 

I honestly think good overflow capacity helps, but it's really a labour problem, and we don't have systems in place to train more nurses and doctors. Even then, what portion of our workforce should be in healthcare?
We're already at 13%. That's more than 1 in 8 people work in health care.




__





Labour force characteristics by industry, annual


Number of persons in the labour force (employment and unemployment) and unemployment rate, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), sex and age group, last 5 years.




www150.statcan.gc.ca


----------



## damian13ster

Yeah, how many of those are on frontlines though?

Poland spends around 6% on healthcare, yet has 6.5 hospital beds/1000pop
Canada has just 2.5 beds/1000pop and the number is trending down - fast.

The problem is we spend a lot and get a little. Spending is done inefficiently and now Canadians are paying for it.
The answer is less waste and more spending on front line. Get the number of hospital beds to 6-7/1000 and a lot of problems will be solved


----------



## sags

More beds is the easy part. You need to hire more doctors and nurses, housekeepers, equipment.....as well.

We need to put money into healthcare. Some governments don't want to spend more money on healthcare.

Ontario's Ford government haven't spent any of the $2.7 billion they got in pandemic support from the Trudeau government.

Quebec wants more healthcare dollars, but doesn't want to be forced to spend them on healthcare.

They should eliminate healthcare transfers to Provinces, and let them raise their own revenues and fund their own healthcare.

If a Province has lousy healthcare......people won't live there.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> More beds is the easy part. You need to hire more doctors and nurses, housekeepers, equipment.....as well.
> 
> We need to put money into healthcare. Some governments don't want to spend more money on healthcare.
> 
> Ontario's Ford government haven't spent any of the $2.7 billion they got in pandemic support from the Trudeau government.
> 
> Quebec wants more healthcare dollars, but doesn't want to be forced to spend them on healthcare.
> 
> They should eliminate healthcare transfers to Provinces, and let them raise their own revenues and fund their own healthcare.
> 
> If a Province has lousy healthcare......people won't live there.


You really think those other countries have just empty beds with no staff?
No. They spend less money and have more front-line services.

More hospital beds is the answer. Stop spending money in stupid way.
Spend it smartly - on front line services


When health transfers were created, they were made so that 50% is covered by provinces and 50% is covered by federal.
Now about 80% is covered by provinces.


----------



## sags

What is the nurse to patient ratio in those countries ? What kind of equipment do they have at each bed ?


----------



## sags

Want better healthcare ? Raise taxes to pay for it. Problem solved.


----------



## damian13ster

How in the world am I supposed to know.
Next thing you can ask is how much time a nurse spends on admin staff vs actually caring for patients.

I don't know where to find this statistic. If you do - be my guest.
Majority of developed world manages to sustain about *twice the amount of hospital beds* than Canada does *despite spending less on health care.*

If you want better healthcare - hire smarter people to design and run the system


----------



## damian13ster

Spending more clearly isn't the answer


----------



## bgc_fan

agent99 said:


> People like these?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Couple die of COVID and leave behind 5 kids, including newborn daughter
> 
> 
> “They were the kindest, most amazing people. They were the ones who got everyone together — for every birthday, every holiday.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.today.com


I'm thinking people like this: Republican lawmaker attends anti-vaxxer rally just days after his unvaccinated wife died of COVID-19, reports say
His unvaxxed wife dies of covid, and he goes the next week to attend an anti-vax rally.



james4beach said:


> Yeah, the American situation is horrendous. Their death rate, per capita, is astoundingly bad.
> 
> This whole pandemic has taught me one important lesson. Imminent and direct threat to life does not seem to motivate people as much as I would have thought! I keep thinking about how Americans were so incredibly afraid of terrorism. They were in a constant state of fear and paranoia ... and yet very few Americans have ever died of terrorism. There just wasn't much of a threat.
> 
> Now COVID comes along, which is objectively much worse. But who gives a sh*t, right?


It's bad to say, but the problem is that the alpha variant wasn't virulent, or fatal enough for some people to take seriously. When it primarily affected the elderly, people were like, "Eh, doesn't matter to me." Now that it's starting to hit the younger demographic because they're unvaxxed, it's now, "Well, it's only the unhealthy, I'm good to go." If healthy children were starting to die at a higher rate, you might start seeing some people take it seriously. Then again, you had people say at the start that it was just the flu and it'll disappear in the summer.


----------



## sags

The number of beds is meaningless, unless you know the level of staffing at each bed.

In many countries much of the care for patients is done by their family members.

They have to bathe the patients and bring them soup.


----------



## sags

A typical Russian hospital room. Most Eastern Bloc countries would be the same or worse.

I can see how they have more beds and spend less money.









Russia's Deadly Hospitals


Photos from a truly broken health-care system.




foreignpolicy.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ontario's Ford government haven't spent any of the $2.7 billion they got in pandemic support from the Trudeau government.


Care to support that? Seems a pretty outrageous accusation. I'm sure that at the very least they spent some of that money on vaccine distribution.

Or is this more made up lies from sags?


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Care to support that? Seems a pretty outrageous accusation. I'm sure that at the very least they spent some of that money on vaccine distribution.
> 
> Or is this more made up lies from sags?











Ontario didn’t spend money from COVID-19 response program in 1st quarter, watchdog says | Globalnews.ca


Ontario's fiscal watchdog says the province didn't spend any money from a new $2.7 billion COVID-19 response program in the first quarter.




globalnews.ca


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> The number of beds is meaningless, unless you know the level of staffing at each bed.
> 
> In many countries much of the care for patients is done by their family members.
> 
> They have to bathe the patients and bring them soup.





Money172375 said:


> Ontario didn’t spend money from COVID-19 response program in 1st quarter, watchdog says | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Ontario's fiscal watchdog says the province didn't spend any money from a new $2.7 billion COVID-19 response program in the first quarter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


A spokeswoman for Health Minister Christine Elliott disputed the FAO finding that “no spending occurred” and noted that the $2.7 billion is allocated for the entire fiscal year. She said the program is used for COVID-19 response measures like testing and vaccine and case management.

“Just because it wasn’t recorded at the time of the data request by the FAO doesn’t mean that spending hasn’t occurred,” Alexandra Hilkene said.

Some expenses, such as $773 million for lab testing that occurred in the first quarter, would likely be registered in the second quarter under the program, she said.

Health spending was higher than planned for long-term care home operations and development, but lower than planned in payments to physicians and in health services, the FAO found.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Ontario didn’t spend money from COVID-19 response program in 1st quarter, watchdog says | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Ontario's fiscal watchdog says the province didn't spend any money from a new $2.7 billion COVID-19 response program in the first quarter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


Gotcha, more made up lies from sags.
From the article.
"Some expenses, such as $773 million for lab testing that occurred in the first quarter, would likely be registered in the second quarter under the program, she said."

So they definately spent money.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> No, until we stop the overwhelming of our health care system the pandemic measures can not end.
> Vaccination is one of the tools, but not the only one.
> 
> Vaccination alone, with the current vaccines, isn't enough to "end the pandemic", at least in my opinion, and based on the data coming out of some areas.


It would if the unvaccinated would get vaccinated. Based on the case countdowns and ICUs I don't think breakthrough cases would be little different then a normal flu season. In a normal year a fair number of people end up in the hospital with the flu bug and some of them die.


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> It would if the unvaccinated would get vaccinated. Based on the case countdowns and ICUs I don't think breakthrough cases would be little different then a normal flu season. In a normal year a fair number of people end up in the hospital with the flu bug and some of them die.


I don't think it would, and remember millions of Canadians are currently unable to get vaccinated.


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> One of the things that would work is increasing hospital capacity.
> Amount of hospital beds in Canada per capita is very low compared to some other developed countries.
> This is despite lack of home care, which is an approach that some other countries have taken to lessen loads on hospitals.
> And that is with disproportionately high spending on health care


Good point. At one point Alberta stated they had 150 official ICU s for Covid. I spend my winters in Texas and the county I am in has a capacity of 350 ICUs for Covid. Alberta has a population in excess of 4 million and the county has a population of 1 million.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> I don't think it would, and remember millions of Canadians are currently unable to get vaccinated.


We can't shut everything down for that group. The solution for them is to stay at home and avoid society in general. This group is also highly vulnerable to severe outcomes with the flu and the common cold.


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> We can't shut everything down for that group. The solution for them is to stay at home and avoid society in general. This group is also highly vulnerable to severe outcomes with the flu and the common cold.


Kids tend not to die due to COVID, and you only need to be 6 months to get the flu shot.

It also seems as though kids are less likely to spread COVID19 in the first place.


----------



## sags

Fact.........the Ford government didn't spend the money intended to address the third wave of the pandemic.

Now they are caught and trying to spin it that they didn't record it on the books. It looks like maybe they never intended to record it at all.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Fact.........the Ford government didn't spend the money intended to address the third wave of the pandemic.
> 
> Now they are caught and trying to spin it that they didn't record it on the books. It looks like maybe they never intended to record it at all.


Fact, they did spend the money, and sags is repeating a lie with no substantiation.

Again, please cite your source that it was not spent. 

Lets say I go on a business trip today, and I get back later this month.
Then I file my expense report October 1st.

If you take a copy of the financial records on September 30th, you might not see that spending recorded yet.


----------



## Synergy

MrMatt said:


> We spend 11.5% of our GDP on Health care.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Health spending | CIHI
> 
> 
> An overview of health spending, including general reports and analyses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cihi.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> That's about 1/9th of our entire GDP on Health care.
> Not food, shelter or other essentials.
> 
> We really need to get serious about efficiency and exactly how much health care we can afford to pay for.
> 
> I honestly think good overflow capacity helps, but it's really a labour problem, and we don't have systems in place to train more nurses and doctors. Even then, what portion of our workforce should be in healthcare?
> We're already at 13%. That's more than 1 in 8 people work in health care.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Labour force characteristics by industry, annual
> 
> 
> Number of persons in the labour force (employment and unemployment) and unemployment rate, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), sex and age group, last 5 years.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www150.statcan.gc.ca


We don't need more doctors and nurses. We need less sick people! Prevention is the best form of medicine.


----------



## damian13ster

Agreed. Getting everyone a dietician and access to personal fitness classes online is so much cheaper than cost due to obesity and unhealthy lifestyle - a single highest strain on our healthcare system.

Diagnostics in this country is a disaster too


----------



## Mortgage u/w

The goal is to get out of a Pandemic state and into an Endemic. Sars-cov2 is here to stay. Just like Sars-cov1 and MERS, these Coronaviruses are nothing new and still in effect - one more deadly than the other.

How do we reach an Endemic? Global immunization. You only have 2 options for global immunization - 1) you let nature take its course; let the virus infect everyone to build some auto-immunization or 2) get a vaccine to immunize.

Option 1 will kill lots of people. Option 2 will save lots of lives. Its not 100% bullet proof, but will give you one hell of a fighting chance. 
Eventually, we will reach an Endemic once the majority of the world has contracted the virus - those with and without vaccination. 

This virus will just become a common flu and we will learn to live with it.

No, the vaccine is not a trial. No, you don't need additional data for long term effects. The vaccine, like all other drugs, has been developed by experts and has saving millions of lives since inception. If you rather believe in Facebook or Youtube, then I have a great investment for you.......trust me, I saw it on Facebook!


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Gotcha, more made up lies from sags.
> From the article.
> "Some expenses, such as $773 million for lab testing that occurred in the first quarter, would likely be registered in the second quarter under the program, she said."
> 
> So they definately spent money.


No......they think they might have spent some of the money. Apparently, the spokesperson doesn't actually know.


----------



## bgc_fan

Synergy said:


> We don't need more doctors and nurses. We need less sick people! Prevention is the best form of medicine.


Yes and no. Part of healthy lifestyle can depend on the availability of primary care physicians, or other health care providers who can give time to help with general wellness, and keep people out of the emergency. But that does need more doctors/nurses/health care providers. 

As an aside, concerning ICU beds and the lack thereof, here's the question, what is the right amount to have? The best way to judge is ICU utilization as opposed to raw numbers. So by that measure, depending on the type of hospital, you're looking at an average utilization rate of 25-90%. But if you want raw numbers by 100k, Canada was 12.9 in 2013. Less than US (20), Belgium, Germany (25), but more than France (9), Netherlands (8), Spain (8) and UK (3). 
Also, you have to realize that almost half of the ICU occupancy are due to surgeries, which is why elective surgeries are being cancelled across the board. 
Source: https://secure.cihi.ca/free_products/ICU_Report_EN.pdf


----------



## accord1999

zinfit said:


> Good point. At one point Alberta stated they had 150 official ICU s for Covid. I spend my winters in Texas and the county I am in has a capacity of 350 ICUs for Covid. Alberta has a population in excess of 4 million and the county has a population of 1 million.


Last year, Alberta had supposedly surged ICU beds to over 500 in anticipation for the first wave, which turned out to be mild. But even one year ago, there almost 400 ICU beds in the system. So Alberta by deferring surgeries should be able to add many more beds than it has now. And perhaps Canada needs to take a look at how the Americans have so many ICU beds, Florida and Texas each have more than 2X the number of ICU beds compared to Canada. That difference can't be explained solely because American spends so much on healthcare.


----------



## accord1999

bgc_fan said:


> But if you want raw numbers by 100k, Canada was 12.9 in 2013. Less than US (20), Belgium, Germany (25), but more than France (9), Netherlands (8), Spain (8) and UK (3).


I don't think those Canadian numbers are anywhere accurate given how easily "overwhelmed" hospitals have been by ICU admissions that would be moderate in the US and Europe. The claimed capacity for Alberta was 295 ICU beds pre-pandemic:










BC is even worse per-capita, and Ontario is only a bit better.











> As an aside, concerning ICU beds and the lack thereof, here's the question, what is the right amount to have?


At least for the era of COVID, based on the experiences in Europe every larger provincial system should be able to surge to 100 ICU beds/million population total to meet the peak of the wave, and potentially be able to support 40 COVID ICU patients/million population for a winter.


----------



## OptsyEagle

There are only two ways for this to go. Either we dramatically increase the ICU capacity OR the unvaccinated get vaccinated. Until either of those two events happen, we all are pretty much in limbo.


----------



## bgc_fan

accord1999 said:


> I don't think those Canadian numbers are anywhere accurate given how easily "overwhelmed" hospitals have been by ICU admissions that would be moderate in the US and Europe. The claimed capacity for Alberta was 295 ICU beds pre-pandemic:
> 
> At least for the era of COVID, based on the experiences in Europe every larger provincial system should be able to surge to* 100 ICU beds/million population* total to meet the peak of the wave, and potentially be able to support 40 COVID ICU patients/million population for a winter.


So, you want to be able to surge 100x the given capacity? Do you plan on hiring 50x the amount of ICU nurses that we currently have and lay them off during the low season? The physical beds are the easy part, the problem is the human resources. The ratio is supposed to be 1:1, but obviously now it's 1:2, and they are using nurses from other departments who aren't specially trained for ICU work.

As for numbers not accurate, if you want to believe Wikipedia in they have some old data (2010), but it was 13.5 which does indicate a trend of decreasing, but you'd notice that Canada was 11th on the list. List of countries by hospital beds - Wikipedia.
Current numbers are difficult to find, but here are some comparisons:








Intensive care bed rates hospitals select countries worldwide 2020 | Statista


In 2020, Belgium had around 21.3 intensive care beds in hospitals per 100,000 population.




www.statista.com












Countries With Most Critical Care Beds Per Capita


Critical care is a relatively new aspect of medical practice, developed from the acute care models established to treat wounded soldiers during the Second World War.




www.worldatlas.com




Here are some for Europe: Charting Europe’s capacity to deal with the coronavirus crisis

Not that there's anything you can really draw from these numbers other than to point out that outside of a few outliers: namely Germany and US, most have capacities less then 20 ICU/100k.

Edit: But you know what the most cost-effective solution is? Vaccination.

Edit2: Strikethough because I realize that the bolded is off. Mainly the fact that at 13.5 ICU beds/100k is more than 100 ICU beds/million.


----------



## Synergy

bgc_fan said:


> Yes and no. Part of healthy lifestyle can depend on the availability of primary care physicians, or other health care providers who can give time to help with general wellness, and keep people out of the emergency. But that does need more doctors/nurses/health care providers.


I'm not talking about keeping people out of emergency. We need to keep people out of hospitals alltogether. The public does not require more education, especially from an expensive inefficient system. Not to mention that a good portion of nurses and physicians are overweight, unfit, etc. themselves.

The average person knows they should be more active, eat better, etc. Education is not really the main issue here.


----------



## OptsyEagle

As per my post above, this pandemic has come down to only two remaining options for us to be able to go forward. Either we expand of ICU capacity dramatically or the unvaccinated get vaccinated. Hopefully we can all see that no matter how big of challenge it is to convince these unvaccinated people, all with a multitude of reasons not to do it, the option of expanding our ICU capacity is more difficult. Add to that the "way too high of mortality rate" for anyone unlucky enough to be put in one of those beds and I was hoping we could all redirect our focus to the one remaining option left:

The unvaccinated have to get vaccinated. They have to step up or we all fall behind. There are no other viable options that will do anything more then delay the above approach.


----------



## bgc_fan

Synergy said:


> I'm not talking about keeping people out of emergency. We need to keep people out of hospitals alltogether. The public does not require more education, especially from an expensive inefficient system. Not to mention that a good portion of nurses and physicians are overweight, unfit, etc. themselves.
> 
> The average person knows they should be more active, eat better, etc. Education is not really the main issue here.


And there are lots of people who look for financial advisors even though there's plenty of information for self-directed investors. Just because people know they need to be more active, that doesn't necessarily mean that they know what to do. I'm talking about having an annual health check up with a nutritionist/physical trainer, etc, and not necessarily with doctors and nurses.

It goes hand in hand. Lots of people go to emergency because they don't have a primary care physician or facilities. 

Of course, a big issue is how our cities are built and the fact that we all want our detached homes so we end up with urban sprawl with people driving everywhere instead of using active transportation. It's easier to incorporate good physical health if it's part of you daily routine. I.e. it's pretty ridiculous for people to drive to the gym, work out for an hour, and drive back on a semi-daily basis, when health-wise, you're better off being able to walk to work/shopping within 15 min.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> As per my post above, this pandemic has come down to only two remaining options for us to be able to go forward. Either we expand of ICU capacity dramatically or the unvaccinated get vaccinated. Hopefully we can all see that no matter how big of challenge it is to convince these unvaccinated people, all with a multitude of reasons not to do it, the option of expanding our ICU capacity is more difficult. Add to that the "way too high of mortality rate" for anyone unlucky enough to be put in one of those beds and I was hoping we could all redirect our focus to the one remaining option left:
> 
> The unvaccinated have to get vaccinated. They have to step up or we all fall behind. There are no other viable options that will do anything more then delay the above approach.


No, the unvaccinated could simply die.

Also as you sit here, tell the anti-vaxx government to get vaccines for all Canadians, they're the ones holding it up.


----------



## Beaver101

Alberta reaches out on COVID-19 hospital crisis; talks to Ontario on taking patients

I don't know who to believe - the expert posters on this forum with their elaborate data/facts, stunning graphs from the AHS website or the above current news (September 17, 2021). 

Anyhow, based on those news, not sure how efficient or practical will it be on sending Covid-patients to Ontario and/or NFLD - a 4 to 6 hours(?) flight away for that matter when there're closer neighbours such as B.C., Saskatechewn, and Manitoba. Hell, Yukon and the NWT might be even closer. 

Time for the still-the-Premier (don't know why) Kenny to pluck-up-the courage to call on Junior to send in the army to help there. Just like for Quebec and Ontario.


----------



## Spudd

I don't think Sask will be able to help. They have their own crisis going on.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> Alberta reaches out on COVID-19 hospital crisis; talks to Ontario on taking patients
> 
> I don't know who to believe - the expert posters on this forum with their elaborate data/facts, stunning graphs from the AHS website or the above current news (September 17, 2021).
> 
> Anyhow, based on those news, not sure how efficient or practical will it be on sending Covid-patients to Ontario and/or NFLD - a 4 to 6 hours(?) flight away for that matter when there're closer neighbours such as B.C., Saskatechewn, and Manitoba. Hell, Yukon and the NWT might be even closer.
> 
> Time for the still-the-Premier (don't know why) Kenny to pluck-up-the courage to call on Junior to send in the army to help there. Just like for Quebec and Ontario.


Ontario has a lower per capita caseload than BC or sask.
Manitoba doesn't have many extra beds, because they're a small province. 






__





COVID-19 Tracker Canada


Real-time COVID-19 data updates for every region in Canada, tracking cases, deaths, vaccinations, hospitalizations, ICU, recoveries and testing.



covid19tracker.ca


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Ontario has a lower per capita caseload than BC or sask.
> Manitoba doesn't have many extra beds, because they're a small province.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Tracker Canada
> 
> 
> Real-time COVID-19 data updates for every region in Canada, tracking cases, deaths, vaccinations, hospitalizations, ICU, recoveries and testing.
> 
> 
> 
> covid19tracker.ca


Take them to NL! They have only 1 person in hospital......or to any of 3 territorries - they have 0


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## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Take them to NL! They have only 1 person in hospital......or to any of 3 territorries - they have 0


NL is far, and they have very limited hospital capacity.
Honestly Ontario and Quebec are big and most able to help with surges.

Ontario previously took overflow from Manitoba.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> NL is far, and they have very limited hospital capacity.
> Honestly Ontario and Quebec are big and most able to help with surges.
> 
> Ontario previously took overflow from Manitoba.


From Manitoba you can drive abmulance to Ontario. From AB to ON you have to fly ... so not really big difference to ON or NL. NWT and Yukon even closer


----------



## Synergy

bgc_fan said:


> And there are lots of people who look for financial advisors even though there's plenty of information for self-directed investors. Just because people know they need to be more active, that doesn't necessarily mean that they know what to do. I'm talking about having an annual health check up with a nutritionist/physical trainer, etc, and not necessarily with doctors and nurses.
> 
> It goes hand in hand. Lots of people go to emergency because they don't have a primary care physician or facilities.
> 
> Of course, a big issue is how our cities are built and the fact that we all want our detached homes so we end up with urban sprawl with people driving everywhere instead of using active transportation. It's easier to incorporate good physical health if it's part of you daily routine. I.e. it's pretty ridiculous for people to drive to the gym, work out for an hour, and drive back on a semi-daily basis, when health-wise, you're better off being able to walk to work/shopping within 15 min.


It's not rocket science. Walking is sufficient for most. Excuses, lack of motivation, etc. Is the problem. Not easy to fix, there is no pill for that. It's become exceptable. Off topic.


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> From Manitoba you can drive abmulance to Ontario. From AB to ON you have to fly ... so not really big difference to ON or NL. NWT and Yukon even closer


They flew them MB to Ontario, it really is too far to drive hospital patients to the major centers in Ontario.


----------



## sags

They can only transport patients well enough to travel, so that may a limiting factor.

The solution is going to have to be send medical staff to Alberta, but there is a limit on that now, due to staff burnout across Canada.

Interesting that everything I predicted months ago was scoffed at and now here we are. The only thing missing from my predictions is lock downs.......but rest assured they are coming unless the situation reverses the trend soon. My predictions were gleaned from what the docs and nurses in the ICUs were saying.

Throughout this pandemic the authorities have led from behind. The doctors and nurses were well ahead of the politicians.

Maybe the politicos will listen now......because there is no joy for the health care workers in being right but ignored.

No wonder the docs and nurses are not only worn out........but angry. Much of this distress could have been avoided.


----------



## Bananatron

sags said:


> They can only transport patients well enough to travel, so that may a limiting factor.
> 
> The solution is going to have to be send medical staff to Alberta, but there is a limit on that now, due to staff burnout across Canada.
> 
> Interesting that everything I predicted months ago was scoffed at and now here we are. The only thing missing from my predictions is lock downs.......but rest assured they are coming unless the situation reverses the trend soon. My predictions were gleaned from what the docs and nurses in the ICUs were saying.
> 
> Throughout this pandemic the authorities have led from behind. The doctors and nurses were well ahead of the politicians.
> 
> Maybe the politicos will listen now......because there is no joy for the health care workers in being right but ignored.
> 
> No wonder the docs and nurses are not only worn out........but angry. Much of this distress could have been avoided.


As painful as it is to admit, yes you were right. That said we should have done a better job of regulating restrictions. When the cases are low, for the sanity of all involved, restrictions have to be relaxed.

I just can't believe how reactive the ucp has been. Why wait so long when you can see the cases are trending up?


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> Ontario has a lower per capita caseload than BC or sask.
> Manitoba doesn't have many extra beds, because they're a small province.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Tracker Canada
> 
> 
> Real-time COVID-19 data updates for every region in Canada, tracking cases, deaths, vaccinations, hospitalizations, ICU, recoveries and testing.
> 
> 
> 
> covid19tracker.ca


The caseloads in other provinces could change quickly. There is no comfortable pews.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> The caseloads in other provinces could change quickly. There is no comfortable pews.


Yes, this situation will evolve quite a bit in the coming months. Schools just opened up so new spread is happening now, as we speak. And in about 3 weeks, we'll have Thanksgiving which might accelerate the spread.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Is there someone on here that didn't think the wave this fall/winter was going to be a pretty tough one. All you had to do is think about the number of unvaccinated people in Canada, combined with the massively increasing social gathering being conducted by the vaccinated and unfortuneately joined in by the unvaccinated, with a virus that is around 5 times more infectious then any of the others we have seen, and it was not too difficult to predict.

The question is whether it can be stopped. Alberta and Saskatchewan led the way because they were a little more relaxed then the rest of the provinces but it will not be long now (a few weeks maybe) and we will all see what this virus does to indoor gathering, in every province. With the old virus, when the far less number of people gathered indoors, some of them got infected, with a few infected severely. With the delta, everyone will get infected and more then a few very, very severely. Just watch. The rest of Canada is next and there is almost nothing we can do about it assuming the unvaccinated persist in their vaccine resistance. Masking won't save us unless we do it everywhere...and we won't. Remember we have never seen the Delta virus in cooler weather. It only came to us in the Spring. Also, we have never felt this safe. That is going to be a nasty combo this fall/winter.


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> The caseloads in other provinces could change quickly. There is no comfortable pews.


Absolutely, Ontario is entering an upswing, I expect we'll be in serious trouble October/November, but I don't know if they can implement lockdowns. We've been lied to about vaccines ending this for too long.

But the reality is right now Alberta is in crisis, and most other provinces are as well. Ontario has a bit of capacity, so we can help a bit.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Absolutely, Ontario is entering an upswing, I expect we'll be in serious trouble October/November, but I don't know if they can implement lockdowns. We've been lied to about vaccines ending this for too long.


I imagine you are attempting to make this political with your "lies" post, but getting the focus back onto the pandemic, if everyone vaccinated we CAN end this thing. That is not to say that we won't still have some casualties. We still have those with the flu. It just means that we can open up, go on with our lives and our hospitals should be able to cope with the seriously reduced severe infections that covid will bring to our citizens.

If we could do it quick enough, we might even get enough virus exposure to our vaccinated citizen's to provide protection when this thing mutates.

It all hang's on how many unvaccinated adults (age 50 and older for the most part) come forward and help us end this thing. Without that, lockdowns and restrictions will be with us for a very, very long time.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> I imagine you are attempting to make this political with your "lies" post,


Not directly, I'm trying to communicate the will of the people to accept lockdowns after being told that the vaccine would solve all problems.



> but getting the focus back onto the pandemic, if everyone vaccinated we CAN end this thing.


Maybe, but with the vaccines we have now, and with a substantial population with no approved vaccine we can NOT vaccinate everyone.



> That is not to say that we won't still have some casualties. We still have those with the flu. It just means that we can open up, go on with our lives and our hospitals should be able to cope with the seriously reduced severe infections that covid will bring to our citizens.


Maybe yes, maybe no. But we're not there yet, and until we get a vaccine for everyone, we won't know.



> If we could do it quick enough, we might even get enough virus exposure to our vaccinated citizen's to provide protection when this thing mutates.
> 
> It all hang's on how many unvaccinated adults (age 50 and older for the most part) come forward and help us end this thing. Without that, lockdowns and restrictions will be with us for a very, very long time.


No, it hangs on getting EVERYONE vaccinated, and hoping the vaccine works well enough.
We need a vaccine for everyone, until we get kids vaccinated, I think it is likley that pockets will remain circulating. Despite the fact that school aged children, in schools, seem to get COVID19 at rates far lower than the general population (according to asymptomatic test data done last year)

Secondly we need to get our boosters before the protection wanes too far, the data and politics here is a problem. The data on protection decline isn't very strong yet, but it's coming. Politically I don't think they want to tell everyone to get their 6 month shot in perpetuity, particularly since many people became quite ill after dose 2 of Pfizer.


I don't think we'll have lockdowns and restrictions for a very long time, I seriously doubt Ontario will accept another round of lockdowns now, and I'd bet money they won't accept 5th wave lockdown during Christmas.
Even if we objectively need them, I doubt they'll happen.


----------



## KaeJS

MrMatt said:


> Secondly we need to get our boosters


Lol...


----------



## OptsyEagle

The vaccines are fine. The kids don't need them. Even the younger generations don't really need them but it would be nice if they came forward to get their shot anyway. *The unvaccinated 50 and older is the problem spot*. The vaccines we have are fine. Sure, they could be better, but they could have been a lot worse or even non-existent and that really would have been a problem.

What we have for vaccine will work just fine, if we can get everyone, age 50 and older, vaccinated or even at the 98% level, etc., we can move on. The casualties after that will be reduced enough for our hospitals to manage. That is really the only obstacle holding us back right now.

Matt, while you're dreaming and complaining about all the stuff you wish we had, the rest of us who know we don't need all of that, will be going on with our lives. Good luck to you.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> The vaccines are fine. The kids don't need them. Even the younger generations don't really need them but it would be nice if they came forward to get their shot anyway. *The unvaccinated 50 and older is the problem spot*. The vaccines we have are fine. Sure, they could be better, but they could have been a lot worse or even non-existent and that really would have been a problem.
> 
> What we have for vaccine will work just fine, if we can get everyone, age 50 and older, vaccinated or even at the 98% level, etc., we can move on. The casualties after that will be reduced enough for our hospitals to manage. That is really the only obstacle holding us back right now.
> 
> Matt, while you're dreaming and complaining about all the stuff you wish we had, the rest of us who know we don't need all of that, will be going on with our lives. Good luck to you.



So you kids don't need vaccines, but we need to vaccinate everyone?
Heck there are more cases 0-9 than 50-59. But don't worry about that. 

Now it's just the 50+ that we need to worry about, even though most cases are in those under 50.


https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#new-cases


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> So you kids don't need vaccines, but we need to vaccinate everyone?
> Heck there are more cases 0-9 than 50-59. But don't worry about that.
> 
> Now it's just the 50+ that we need to worry about, even though most cases are in those under 50.
> 
> 
> https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#new-cases


You are getting distracted Matt. Stay focused on the pandemic.

Cases are not a problem. We will have covid-19 cases in the year 2050. So we are all going to have to get use to those.

Our pandemic problem right now is our hospitals. If it was not for our hospitals we would simply let the vaccinated live vaccinated and the unvaccinated die unvaccinated. But we do have a problem with the hospitals so we need to get the "most hospital vulnerable" people vaccinated. Once that is done, we can move on.

If they invent a vaccine to keep us all from getting infected, including kids under age 12, great. But we should not wait for things we want, only what we need. I will repeat. We need unvaccinated Canadians, age 50 or older to get vaccinated. The rest can simply get very, very sick and enjoy that experience at home. It is the older age groups that are causing stress on the healthcare system. That has to stop.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> You are getting distracted Matt. Stay focused on the pandemic.


I am



> Cases are not a problem. We will have covid-19 cases in the year 2050. So we are all going to have to get use to those.


I beg to differ.
If we had no cases, we'd have no problem.
It's only a pandemic because we have cases.



> Our pandemic problem right now is our hospitals. If it was not for our hospitals we would simply let the vaccinated live vaccinated and the unvaccinated die unvaccinated. But we do have a problem with the hospitals so we need to get the "most hospital vulnerable" people vaccinated.


Yes


> Once that is done, we can move on.


Maybe
Current data shows that vaccination alone isn't enough to stop hospitalizations, so we might need more.



> If they invent a vaccine to keep us all from getting infected, including kids under age 12, great.


I agree.



> But we should not wait for things we want, only what we need. I will repeat. We need unvaccinated Canadians, age 50 or older to get vaccinated.


I agree here too.



> The rest can simply get very, very sick and enjoy that experience at home.


I disagree here, some will still need hospitalization.
We know it's a lower rate, but with widespread COVID19 it could still be too much



> It is the older age groups that are causing stress on the healthcare system. That has to stop.


I agree with this too.


Looks like we both agree vaccinating everyone will help greatly.

I just don't think it's the silver bullet that will fix everything. More action is needed


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Not directly, I'm trying to communicate the will of the people to accept lockdowns after being told that the vaccine would solve all problems.
> 
> 
> Maybe, but with the vaccines we have now, and with a substantial population with no approved vaccine we can NOT vaccinate everyone.
> 
> 
> Maybe yes, maybe no. But we're not there yet, and until we get a vaccine for everyone, we won't know.
> 
> 
> No, it hangs on getting EVERYONE vaccinated, and hoping the vaccine works well enough.
> We need a vaccine for everyone, until we get kids vaccinated, I think it is likley that pockets will remain circulating. Despite the fact that school aged children, in schools, seem to get COVID19 at rates far lower than the general population (according to asymptomatic test data done last year)
> 
> Secondly we need to get our boosters before the protection wanes too far, the data and politics here is a problem. The data on protection decline isn't very strong yet, but it's coming. Politically I don't think they want to tell everyone to get their 6 month shot in perpetuity, particularly since many people became quite ill after dose 2 of Pfizer.
> 
> 
> I don't think we'll have lockdowns and restrictions for a very long time, I seriously doubt Ontario will accept another round of lockdowns now, and I'd bet money they won't accept 5th wave lockdown during Christmas.
> Even if we objectively need them, I doubt they'll happen.


British health authority recommended not to vaccinate kids 12-15.
FDA recommended against booster shot.

Who do we listen to?

The solution really isn't that hard. Learn from countries that spend 5-7% of their GDP on healthcare and have 2.5 x amount of hospital beds we have in Canada, so that with out 11% of spending we can provide at least 60% of the service they are getting in those countries.

Aka, fire idiots running our system and hire smart people focused on front lines and not administration.
If you want to end the pandemic then fire the idiots from the very top on monday, and hope that the newcomers will hire smarter people to run healthcare system


----------



## accord1999

bgc_fan said:


> Here are some for Europe: Charting Europe’s capacity to deal with the coronavirus crisis


For Europe because they were hit much harder than Canada, we can at least see that they were able to scale up to those numbers (even if it meant degradation of services every where else). A number of countries needed essentially all of their existing ICU beds for just COVID patients during their peaks. France as an example, over 100 COVID ICU patients/million during their first wave peak and 90 patients/million in the third wave peak :










Alberta is only at about 50 COVID ICU patients/million, which by American and European standards isn't that bad. It's less than Ontario's third wave peak, and is almost what Alberta had modeled for the first wave:










Based on the information given out for Canadian health care systems in the first part of the pandemic and what other peer systems were able to do, the Alberta hospital system should not be on the verge of collapse and there is is still significant capacity left to grow (at the expense of everything else). I'd like to think that this is the health care system trying to scare people into being more cautious and respecting restrictions. But if <250 ICU beds for COVID patients is the capacity limit and no better than what it was 18 months ago, then that is what the premier and other ministers and health system leaders should be fired for.



> Edit: But you know what the most cost-effective solution is? Vaccination.


It is, but there's a portion of the population that looks like it won't ever get vaccinated, plus some others who aren't well protected by it. I read a summary of a briefing to the Netherlands parliament that expects up to 22K hospitalizations and 3.5K ICU admissions as COVID infects them. The main thing they can do is try to manage it so it's as flat as possible.


----------



## OptsyEagle

accord1999 said:


> I'd like to think that this is the health care system trying to scare people into being more cautious and respecting restrictions.


We have had quite a few posters come on and mathematically or with charts like yours attempt to argue that Alberta does not have a hospital crisis, but for me I look at it a little more simplistically. There is no way in the world, Jason Kenny would have done an about face in everything he promised Alberta, and add to that a personal apology for his mistakes, if he was not convinced that Alberta had a serious healthcare problem. 

I know it is not proof, but I think it is more telling then bed numbers and medical staff numbers and how many ventilators they have or should have, if you ask me. 

All that said, I still appreciate your charts, but I have to go with my method of evaluation for now. Alberta is in trouble. All the provinces soon will be. We need the unvaccinated to vaccinate if we are ever going to see an end from these restrictions and lockdowns.


----------



## bgc_fan

accord1999 said:


> For Europe because they were hit much harder than Canada, we can at least see that they were able to scale up to those numbers (even if it meant degradation of services every where else). A number of countries needed essentially all of their existing ICU beds for just COVID patients during their peaks. France as an example, over 100 COVID ICU patients/million during their first wave peak and 90 patients/million in the third wave peak :
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Alberta is only at about 50 COVID ICU patients/million, which by American and European standards isn't that bad. It's less than Ontario's third wave peak, and is almost what Alberta had modeled for the first wave:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Based on the information given out for Canadian health care systems in the first part of the pandemic and what other peer systems were able to do, the Alberta hospital system should not be on the verge of collapse and there is is still significant capacity left to grow (at the expense of everything else). I'd like to think that this is the health care system trying to scare people into being more cautious and respecting restrictions. But if <250 ICU beds for COVID patients is the capacity limit and no better than what it was 18 months ago, then that is what the premier and other ministers and health system leaders should be fired for.
> 
> 
> It is, but there's a portion of the population that looks like it won't ever get vaccinated, plus some others who aren't well protected by it. I read a summary of a briefing to the Netherlands parliament that expects up to 22K hospitalizations and 3.5K ICU admissions as COVID infects them. The main thing they can do is try to manage it so it's as flat as possible.


France had the lowest ICU beds in Europe per million at 80. So surging 25% to 100 beds per million is not as bad as trying to surge almost 100% which is what Alberta is doing when you consider that Alberta's baseline is approx 43 beds per million. In comparison, Quebec is at 125 beds per million, and Ontario is at 172 beds per million. So the numbers for Canada probably isn't that far off, it's just that Alberta is just way below. Next door in BC, it's 102 beds per million. So that should be an indication that generally most provinces would be fine and had higher amount of beds than France, and any required surge could probably be accommodated. Alberta is a special case.


----------



## accord1999

bgc_fan said:


> France had the lowest ICU beds in Europe per million at 80. So surging 25% to 100 beds per million is not as bad as trying to surge almost 100% which is what Alberta is doing when you consider that Alberta's baseline is approx 43 beds per million. In comparison, Quebec is at 125 beds per million, and Ontario is at 172 beds per million. So the numbers for Canada probably isn't that far off, it's just that Alberta is just way below. Next door in BC, it's 102 beds per million. So that should be an indication that generally most provinces would be fine and had higher amount of beds than France, and any required surge could probably be accommodated. Alberta is a special case.


That's the problem I have with Canadian ICU numbers, they appear all over the place. I don't believe Ontario normally has 2300 ICU beds or Quebec has 1000. In April 2020, Ontario and Quebec all implemented deferred surgeries and rescheduling other tasks to scale up their bed counts. And the current Alberta bed count of 286 would be less than it had before the pandemic.









"That is a surprise": Doctors still waiting for feared surge of COVID-19 patients in Canadian ICUs


Doctors, nurses and other staff who run the nation’s intensive-care units have feared for their own safety, too, amid shortages of protective equipment




nationalpost.com





There shouldn't be any reason why Alberta with its well-funded and well-staffed health care system by Canadian stanards can't scale up to 100 beds/million as well. The Alberta system "collapsing" at current bed occupancy would represent the worst performance by a health care system in the developed world. Even more so when modeling for the first wave expected such numbers of hospitalizations and planning was for at least 100+ ICU beds/million to be added within three weeks.


----------



## accord1999

OptsyEagle said:


> We have had quite a few posters come on and mathematically or with charts like yours attempt to argue that Alberta does not have a hospital crisis, but for me I look at it a little more simplistically. There is no way in the world, Jason Kenny would have done an about face in everything he promised Alberta, and add to that a personal apology for his mistakes, if he was not convinced that Alberta had a serious healthcare problem.


As bold as Kenney was in the summer, he's still nowhere near DeSantis or Abbot in Florida and Texas. Canada has always been extremely cautious, almost timid in the pandemic unwilling to test the limits of the health care system. DeSantis if he was premier of Alberta would likely have not changed course until there were 500+ COVID patients in ICU beds. As governor, he barely budged as even Florida's massive hospital system was pushed to capacity with 3600 COVID patients in ICU.

Even states with less extreme governors aren't concerned despite having numbers that are comparable to Alberta. Michigan last week and Pennsylvania Saturday don't appear worried about COVID now that football is back.

















> Alberta is in trouble. All the provinces soon will be. We need the unvaccinated to vaccinate if we are ever going to see an end from these restrictions and lockdowns.


I agree with you that there will be a winter wave throughout Canada as Delta goes through those un-vaccinated and others who aren't well protected by the vaccine. Personally, that's why I feel that Alberta opening up in the summer was the right thing to do, to flatten the curve by getting more cases in the summer and to reduce restriction fatigue if it needed to restrict in the winter.

But we may be at the point where vaccinations have plateaued and even if we could get more people vaccinated, the evolution of COVID variants could elude them. And like the Quebec Health Minister wrote, we'll probably need to accept a certain number of cases and hospitalizations. It seems like the US has, and the UK too as it kept Freedom Day even as Delta caused a spike in July.


----------



## james4beach

accord1999 said:


> that's why I feel that Alberta opening up in the summer was the right thing to do, to flatten the curve by getting more cases in the summer and to reduce restriction fatigue if it needed to restrict in the winter.


I don't think so. Opening up in the summer (these flip flops in policy) as BC has done too, just causes too much confusion. People then have trouble pivoting again. This has been observed in Israel too. When mask requirements came back, the public stopped bothering with masks, causing a major problem.

I don't see any evidence that giving people a "fun summer" reduces fatigue. In fact I think it encourages the psychological distinction of NORMAL vs RESTRICTED -- which is not a healthy way to see this.

While people enjoy what they feel is NORMAL, the problem is that once they flip back to RESTRICTED, their mindset is that life has changed, it's a dramatic situation, they can't do what they want, they are held down.

Instead we need the public to adopt consistently cautious behaviour. Alberta, and Manitoba previously, encouraged this NORMAL vs RESTRICTED distinction and it just stresses people out. It's really not healthy for people to dramatically flip flop their behaviours like that... it's unnatural.

Since the first months of this, I've been working on my own psychology for this, and I think it's working. I really encourage others to look at it this way too: *you just have to be careful*. Don't go to the extremes, like being totally care-free and partying with everyone, OR, locking yourself indoors and avoiding people.

Live your life, do the things you want to do, just be cautious. It's like learning to wear a seat belt every time you drive, or learning to obey the speed limit and don't just stop the gas as you drive around town. Cautious and consistent behaviour is something people can handle, and it minimizes stress.


----------



## OptsyEagle

accord1999 said:


> As bold as Kenney was in the summer, he's still nowhere near DeSantis or Abbot in Florida and Texas. Canada has always been extremely cautious, almost timid in the pandemic unwilling to test the limits of the health care system. DeSantis if he was premier of Alberta would likely have not changed course until there were 500+ COVID patients in ICU beds. As governor, he barely budged as even Florida's massive hospital system was pushed to capacity with 3600 COVID patients in ICU.
> 
> Even states with less extreme governors aren't concerned despite having numbers that are comparable to Alberta. Michigan last week and Pennsylvania Saturday don't appear worried about COVID now that football is back.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I agree with you that there will be a winter wave throughout Canada as Delta goes through those un-vaccinated and others who aren't well protected by the vaccine. Personally, that's why I feel that Alberta opening up in the summer was the right thing to do, to flatten the curve by getting more cases in the summer and to reduce restriction fatigue if it needed to restrict in the winter.
> 
> But we may be at the point where vaccinations have plateaued and even if we could get more people vaccinated, the evolution of COVID variants could elude them. And like the Quebec Health Minister wrote, we'll probably need to accept a certain number of cases and hospitalizations. It seems like the US has, and the UK too as it kept Freedom Day even as Delta caused a spike in July.


I was not commenting on whether Jason Kenny was right or wrong about opening up in the Summer. My comment was solely based on the opinion on whether Alberta's hospital situation is overblown right now or not. From Kenny's recent reactions it cannot be. The hospital problems in Alberta have to be real.

As for Kenny making the right or wrong decision in the Summer. We can never know. We will never know how many people were safely infected/inoculated and saved from that action, as well. I have mentioned, a few times now, that our Premiers are offered a list of bad decisions to choose from and when they eventully pick one everyone starts posting about how bad the decision was. I tend to be a little more understanding of the very tough job they have and the tough decisions they have to make.

In my opinion, if we can get these older unvaccinated people vaccinated, it is definitely time to let the virus spread. What that means, if we get the older unvaccinated protected, is that our hospitals will still fill up, with rarer breakthrough infections and younger unvaccinated infections, but they shouldn't get overwhelmed by it. This cannot be helped or avoided. Until the virus spreads we just won't have the immunity to prevent it. I assumed Jason Kenny was heading in that direction but I am not so sure that was his plan now. I suspect he thought everything would just be OK. There was a very small chance of that but longshots rarely payoff. At least now we know.


----------



## OptsyEagle

By the way, I posted previously that about a month ago Ontario had over 700,000 unvaccinated citizens older then age 50. For context I pointed out that they were really the most important objective for us to resolve if we ever want to move forward without worrying about our hospitals toppling.

I checked yesterday and Ontario now has 501,000 unvaccinated citizens older then age 50. I was quite surprised and pleased with this result. I imagine most of that came from the implementation of vaccine passports and other workplace pressures. I think we will get more when the severity of this Delta variant is better understood this fall. Remember we have never seen the Delta variant during the colder months. It came to us in the Spring. Add to that, a little more people finally understanding that it is really those 501,000 people causing this problem. They are really it. If they all vaccinate, there will still be a few little pandemic annoyances, but those 501,000 are certainly the biggest of all the problems we have. As they, and all their family and friends around them, start to realize that we are all just waiting for them to vaccinate so we can move on, I am hopeful we will get most of the rest to come forward for the vaccine. The infectious nature of the Delta variant should be able to get to the rest by Spring, so it really looks like one last wave to me. By wave, I mean hospitalization wave. Not infections. Those will go on forever, but they really don't matter anymore. Most are probably beneficial to us, in the long term.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> I don't think so. Opening up in the summer (these flip flops in policy) as BC has done too, just causes too much confusion. People then have trouble pivoting again. This has been observed in Israel too. When mask requirements came back, the public stopped bothering with masks, causing a major problem.
> 
> I don't see any evidence that giving people a "fun summer" reduces fatigue. In fact I think it encourages the psychological distinction of NORMAL vs RESTRICTED -- which is not a healthy way to see this.
> 
> While people enjoy what they feel is NORMAL, the problem is that once they flip back to RESTRICTED, their mindset is that life has changed, it's a dramatic situation, they can't do what they want, they are held down.
> 
> Instead we need the public to adopt consistently cautious behaviour. Alberta, and Manitoba previously, encouraged this NORMAL vs RESTRICTED distinction and it just stresses people out. It's really not healthy for people to dramatically flip flop their behaviours like that... it's unnatural.
> 
> _Since the first months of this, I've been working on my own psychology for this, and I think it's working. I really encourage others to look at it this way too: *you just have to be careful*. Don't go to the extremes, like being totally care-free and partying with everyone, OR, locking yourself indoors and avoiding people._
> 
> Live your life, do the things you want to do, just be cautious. It's like learning to wear a seat belt every time you drive, or learning to obey the speed limit and don't just stop the gas as you drive around town. Cautious and consistent behaviour is something people can handle, and it minimizes stress.


 ... your comment (advice?) there in italicized font is considered as coming from either an anti-rights-lefter or a fear -mongerer amongst the hard-core-non-Covid-believers or the flippy-floppy non-Covid-believing wannabees. 

Having said that, it'll be a miracle if this pandemic evolves into an epidemic by the end of this year or next. For sure, it ain't gonna to end any time soon. The virus is winning still. [I believe sags said this too before.]


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## sags

I went to high school in Michigan for 2 years and they are nuts about Michigan football and basketball.

Look at the crowd and you see a lot of people who are long past being students. They are either alumni or life time supporters of Michigan college sports.

It is big........very big and makes a lot of money for the schools. I remember walking around wearing U of M tees and sweatshirts.

So yea.......they would risk death to go to a football game.


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## Beaver101

^


> So yea.......they would risk death to go to a football game.


 ... a hard-core's right. Only problem is the air is shared by all. Don't these guys/gals have families to think about? Boggles the (my) mind.


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## sags

Yea........but it isn't going to happen to them, or so they convince themselves.


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> I went to high school in Michigan for 2 years and they are nuts about Michigan football and basketball.
> 
> Look at the crowd and you see a lot of people who are long past being students. They are either alumni or life time supporters of Michigan college sports.
> 
> It is big........very big and makes a lot of money for the schools. I remember walking around wearing U of M tees and sweatshirts.
> 
> *So yea.......they would risk death to go to a football game.*


Yes, if you think that's a question you don't understand US College sports.
Also it's not a left/right issue, being overly enthusiastic about college sports is widespread.


----------



## sags

It is well beyond enthusiasm for many. It is a way of life they follow religiously.

Many Americans have a routine. For starters, they eat breakfast out like nowhere else in the world and why not. It is cheap and abundant everywhere.

On Saturday, they eat breakfast at a favorite local restaurant, go home and watch the game, while wearing their game jersey.

On Sunday, they repeat for NFL games or NASCAR races. Then on Monday........the cycle of "work and wait" for the next game begins anew.

It really is a fascinating study in human behavior that you don't see exhibited in Canada.

People up here wouldn't go to a university football game if you gave them free tickets, bought their breakfast and paid them to go.


----------



## bgc_fan

accord1999 said:


> That's the problem I have with Canadian ICU numbers, they appear all over the place. I don't believe Ontario normally has 2300 ICU beds or Quebec has 1000. In April 2020, Ontario and Quebec all implemented deferred surgeries and rescheduling other tasks to scale up their bed counts. And the current Alberta bed count of 286 would be less than it had before the pandemic.


Well that's your opinion that you don't believe that. In either case, neither Ontario nor Quebec had to consider transporting patients to other provinces, although Ontario was taking in Manitoba patients. And in the first waves Ontario and Quebec were hit harder. While some surgeries were canceled, they are back on working on them since June. And your point of 286 current bed count is significant. Basically the hospital was staffed for less than 286 so instead of looking at physical beds, you have to consider the nurses and other resources. Those are provided at a lower level so those are the ones being strained.



accord1999 said:


> There shouldn't be any reason why Alberta with its well-funded and well-staffed health care system by Canadian stanards can't scale up to 100 beds/million as well. The Alberta system "collapsing" at current bed occupancy would represent the worst performance by a health care system in the developed world. Even more so when modeling for the first wave expected such numbers of hospitalizations and planning was for at least 100+ ICU beds/million to be added within three weeks.


I'll say it again, they didn't staff appropriately. All the other provinces are normally above the 100 beds/million, but Alberta wasn't so leave it at that. If you don't believe it, fine than go search for some proof other, you don't think so.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> It is well beyond enthusiasm for many. It is a way of life they follow religiously.
> 
> Many Americans have a routine. For starters, they eat breakfast out like nowhere else in the world and why not. It is cheap and abundant everywhere.
> 
> On Saturday, they eat breakfast at a favorite local restaurant, go home and watch the game, while wearing their game jersey.
> 
> On Sunday, they repeat for NFL games or NASCAR races. Then on Monday........the cycle of "work and wait" for the next game begins anew.
> *
> It really is a fascinating study in human behavior that you don't see exhibited in Canada.*
> 
> People up here wouldn't go to a university football game if you gave them free tickets, bought their breakfast and paid them to go.


Uhh, do you know ANY Hockey parents?

If you have one kid in competative hockey, it's ALL your free time. If you have 2 kids in hockey, assuming they're on different teams, it's a full time job.

Yes there is a small off season, but then the kids are expected to go into something like soccer a few days a week to maintain their conditioning, if they don't go to summer hockey camp.


----------



## agent99

Beaver101 said:


> ... your comment (advice?) there in italicized font is considered as coming from either an anti-rights-lefter or a fear -mongerer amongst the hard-core-non-Covid-believers or the flippy-floppy non-Covid-believing wannabees.


I have no idea how you interpreted James' comment (_*you just have to be careful*.) _that way 

With Covid, it is just common sense to act in your own best interests, but hopefully also bearing in mind how that impacts others. Unfortunately not everyone acts sensibly.


----------



## MrMatt

agent99 said:


> I have no idea how you interpreted James' comment (_*you just have to be careful*.) _that way
> 
> With Covid, it is just common sense to act in your own best interests, but hopefully also bearing in mind how that impacts others. Unfortunately not everyone acts sensibly.


Honestly there is a pretty big overlap between your own self interest and societies.
That's why civilization works.


----------



## james4beach

agent99 said:


> I have no idea how you interpreted James' comment (_*you just have to be careful*.) _that way
> 
> With Covid, it is just common sense to act in your own best interests, but hopefully also bearing in mind how that impacts others. Unfortunately not everyone acts sensibly.


I'm not exactly sure what Beaver meant to say there, I was confused when I read it.

What I'm endorsing is developing a lifestyle where you are cautious as a routine. Just like we're cautious when driving: I always put on my seat belt, and I avoid speeding. Being cautious doesn't mean your life has to come to a stop.

Yes I'm slightly inconvenienced that I can't drive drunk at 150 km/hr, have to obey school zones ... this slows me down ... but obeying the speed limits and traffic signs isn't that big a deal. I'm hoping the public can just continue with their normal lives during the pandemic, while diligently wearing masks and avoiding high-risk indoor gatherings.


----------



## Beaver101

agent99 said:


> I have no idea how you interpreted James' comment (_*you just have to be careful*.) _that way


 ... I wasn't interpreting James' comment there. Nor is there a need to as he's known to have a lot of common sense based on past posts. It was merely a re(?)-warning there that he's going to be labelled as one of those in my description (or perceived "interpretation"), if not as a preacher next. Because the hard-cores (adults) are not going to be convinced ... see sag's post #6411 next as he seemed to have gotten what I was saying.



> With Covid, it is just common sense to act in your own best interests, but hopefully also bearing in mind how that impacts others. Unfortunately not everyone acts sensibly.


 ... and "those that don't act sensibly (or "responsibly - like grown ups") are going to be problematic. That's why the pandemic is not going to end any time soon as per my 2nd paragraph/comment in that post, no matter how much common sense James have to share. Maybe I'm just tired at this point. For sure, I don't have the stamina like James trying continuously (and graciously) to convince or spell out common sense to CovIdiots.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> That's why the pandemic is not going to end any time soon as per my 2nd paragraph/comment in that post, no matter how much common sense James have to share. Maybe I'm just tired at this point. For sure, I don't have the stamina like James trying continuously (and graciously) to convince or spell out common sense to CovIdiots.


The reason the pandemic isn't going to end anytime soon is because it's a Coronavirus, and they're hard/impossible to wipe out, and vaccines for Coronaviruses are hard to make.
Look back in March/April 2020, when I was citing the papers on this.

I think I know what you mean by CovIdiots, but they;'re all over.
The people who have silly reasons not to vaccinate.
The people who think that they're vaccinated and they can return to normal.

Both groups are "CovIdiots" in my opinion.


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## Beaver101

^ Imagine if a 2nd pandemic comes about (from a totally different virus) before this one ends. Lord help us, vaccinated or not.


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## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Imagine if a 2nd pandemic comes about (from a totally different virus) before this one ends. Lord help us, vaccinated or not.


Why? The most effective measures are well known, we have a good idea how to handle it.

It doesn't really matter if it is a different virus, or a new strain, or a new wave. The response is basicallythe same.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Uhh, do you know ANY Hockey parents?
> 
> If you have one kid in competative hockey, it's ALL your free time. If you have 2 kids in hockey, assuming they're on different teams, it's a full time job.
> 
> Yes there is a small off season, but then the kids are expected to go into something like soccer a few days a week to maintain their conditioning, if they don't go to summer hockey camp.


Oh yea, our son was on teams that won Ontario championships and numerous International Tournaments.

He was scouted by junior teams but decided he didn't want to play anymore. One his buddies plays in the NHL today.

It took enormous amount of time and money just for him. He also played baseball in the summer and the team won an Ontario Championshp.

At the end of the day, we have a pile of useless plastic trophies ......and he works in construction.

If only I knew then what I know now.......and yes, the parents are all nuts. I know parents who mortgaged their homes to pay for sports for their kid.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Why? The most effective measures are well known, we have a good idea how to handle it.


 ... not if the new pathogen is truly airborne. Don't think we have any "effective" measure(s) for that. You could say it'll be an apocalypse scenario with that one.



> It doesn't really matter if it is a different virus, or a new strain, or a new wave. *The response is basicallythe same.*


 ... yeah, like "what, huh, where, why?"


----------



## sags

The Doomsday Virus ? Cripes.......I hope not.


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## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... not if the new pathogen is truly airborne. Don't think we have any "effective" measure(s) for that. You could say it'll be an apocalypse scenario with that one.
> 
> ... yeah, like "what, huh, where, why?"


You realize that our current measures are mostly ineffective, right?
We're lucky that COVID19 doesn't seem to persist on surfaces.


----------



## sags

Some recent stats.....

Yesterday was a bad day for Saskatchewan. They set 3 concerning new records for Covid numbers for their Province.

Also, some research has shown that only one age group 12-17 reported a steep decline in activity due to restrictions.

That decline in activity was attributed primarily to the absence of organized sports.

All other age groups either had no change in activity or had increases in activity (among older Canadians).

The results question the thesis that restrictions have caused a lack of activity and exercise among the population in general.

I guess it means that people mostly adapted to the circumstances.


----------



## damian13ster

The MacDonald Laurier Institute says Canada has fared the worst among 15 peer countries in the Economic Misery component of its latest COVID Misery Index.
“As Canada votes Monday in an election that will be pivotal for a return to health and prosperity for Canadians, MLI’s work shows higher spending has not proven the solution to COVID’s challenges; the major political parties, however, do not seem to have got the memo,” MLI said in its report Friday. “All of them propose even higher levels of spending and debt.”
The survey compares 15 peer nations by capturing the effects on human health (Disease Misery), the efficiency of governments’ responses (Response Misery) and the economic costs associated with each country’s approaches (Economic Misery). Canada remains in 9th place out of 15 peer countries, scoring a C+ overall.
“Canada maintains an F grade on the economic impact of the pandemic, worst of all peer countries,” the MLI said. “While we are still awaiting figures to compare all countries on measures for GDP growth and public debt, updated figures on unemployment have again lowered Canada’s ranking. Only the U.S. has had a more persistent increase in unemployment; however, they started from a much lower rate.”


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## james4beach

@damian13ster is definitely one of the hardest working new Conservative propagandists on this board.

You're wasting your time. This board is already full of old conservative men. Seriously, your efforts have a very low return here.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> The MacDonald Laurier Institute says Canada has fared the worst among 15 peer countries in the Economic Misery component of its latest COVID Misery Index.


Yawn.
Canada handled COVID19 relatively well.
We did better than most of our peer countries. There is a lot to complain about, and the typical infighting, but all things considered we came out ok.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Yawn.
> *Canada handled COVID19 relatively well.*
> We did better than most of our peer countries. There is a lot to complain about, and the typical infighting, but all things considered we came out ok.


 ... bolded part above qualifies in the big scheme of things. However, procurement of the vaccines remains a BIG SORE part of that picture/pandemic handling.

Edit (add): With the election out of the way now, I'm waiting for Junior to bring in legislations to ban protestings at our hospitals and/or other healthcare facilities. This needs PRIORITY!


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## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... bolded part above qualifies in the big scheme of things. However, procurement of the vaccines remains a BIG SORE part of that picture/pandemic handling.


I think the feds actually did a good job at procuring vaccines.
it's the rest of their response that was lacklustre, shipping out all our PPE in Feb/March 2020 should have landed someone in jail. (Criminal negligence -Criminal Code, 219,220,221)


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> I think the feds actually did a good job at procuring vaccines.
> it's the rest of their response that was lacklustre, shipping out all our PPE in Feb/March 2020 should have landed someone in jail.


We will disagree on the vaccines there. Pretty much every first world country other than Australia/New Zealand got vaccines faster than Canada did


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## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> We will disagree on the vaccines there. Pretty much every first world country other than Australia/New Zealand got vaccines faster than Canada did


Which country, without captive production, did better?
I consider the EU a country for this comparison.


----------



## damian13ster

I think a shorter answer would be to a question of 'which country did worse':
Since It would take too long to list I will just make a snip (well, two since one isn't enough)


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> I think a shorter answer would be to a question of 'which country did worse':
> Since It would take too long to list I will just make a snip (well, two since one isn't enough)
> View attachment 22190
> 
> View attachment 22191


This again? Canada did well enough considering that we don't have vaccine production capabilities. 5 of the top 10 are UK protectorate states, so that hardly counts as different countries as all their supplies are from the UK. 
As for the others, if you want to use Sinovac (Chile), Sinopharm (UAE, Singapore), Sputnik (San Marino) go ahead. Israel is the only one on the top of the list that I'd consider a comparable since they paid a premium for Pfizer as well as provide all medical data.


----------



## damian13ster

You can use whatever standard you want.
The truth is we bought 4x the vaccine necessary, used funds for vaccines to fund CCP, and were in bottom half among developed countries in pace of vaccination.

If that's a passing grade for you, that's fine. We simply have different standards


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> You can use whatever standard you want.
> The truth is we bought 4x the vaccine necessary, used funds for vaccines to fund CCP, and were in bottom half among developed countries in pace of vaccination.
> 
> If that's a passing grade for you, that's fine. We simply have different standards


What is your standard?
Countries that had captive production did best. We know that.

Of those who didn't have captive production, we did good.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> What is your standard?
> Countries that had captive production did best. We know that.
> 
> Of those who didn't have captive production, we did good.


When it comes to vaccines?
Golden standard is Israel.
Then it is EU, UK, and US.

In addition I would like:

not to fund questionable CCP companies
not to experimentally mix vaccines
more coherent communication
not to order 4x more than necessary without securing faster delivery (who the hell overpays by 4x and doesn't get favorable terms?)
not to let doses expire
Incompetency then had Canada raid a fund that was made specifically for third world countries.

I know with amount of brain cells in government the expectations should be lower, but I don't think I am setting expectation very low. About 40-50 countries managed to pass that standard (no, despite North American education system neither Europe nor UK are one country)


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> When it comes to vaccines?
> Golden standard is Israel.
> Then it is EU, UK, and US.
> 
> In addition I would like:
> 
> not to fund questionable CCP companies
> not to experimentally mix vaccines
> more coherent communication
> not to order 4x more than necessary without securing faster delivery (who the hell overpays by 4x and doesn't get favorable terms?)
> not to let doses expire
> Incompetency then had Canada raid a fund that was made specifically for third world countries.
> 
> I know with amount of brain cells in government the expectations should be lower, but I don't think I am setting expectation very low. About 40-50 countries managed to pass that standard (no, despite North American education system neither Europe nor UK are one country)


yes, Trudeau did a lot wrong.
But compared to other countries without domestic/captive production we did well overall.

You're one pretty hard core partisan if you can't even admit that Team Trudeau managed to get vaccines relatively quickly.
Heck I think they were likely so successful because Trudeau was hanging out at the cottage while the grownups did the hard work during the early days of the pandemic.


----------



## damian13ster

Saying it wasn't 'relatively quickly' when ~ 50 countries had their vaccines delivered faster is hardly partisan.
It depends from your baseline though. If you set a bar on the floor, it is easier to clear. I respect your opinion.
I simply set it slightly higher. You can disagree with that or not, that's fine, but saying that being slower than ~50 countries is not a good result for Canada is hardly partisan


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> You can use whatever standard you want.
> The truth is we bought 4x the vaccine necessary, used funds for vaccines to fund CCP, and were in bottom half among developed countries in pace of vaccination.
> 
> If that's a passing grade for you, that's fine. We simply have different standards


You mean you don't like critical thinking, and just look at charts without comprehension? If you want to use vaccines that aren't FDA or Health Canada approved so you can get vaccines early, then go ahead. Particularly interesting since you don't want funds for vaccines to fund CCP, but you want to use their vaccines? BTW, that didn't happen they didn't deliver: Ottawa agreed to pay CanSino before their deal collapsed.

As for buying 4x vaccine, again, lack of thought on this one. It was going to be a crap shoot on which vaccines would be approved quickly, so we hedge our beds. Out of the suppliers, Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca came out first, and we don't use AZ much. Johnson & Johnson, Medicago, Novavx are still pending. Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline gave up. 

Imagine placing all your bets on Medicago for domestic production and still waiting. Pretty much what happened to Australia.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Saying it wasn't 'relatively quickly' when ~ 50 countries had their vaccines delivered faster is hardly partisan.
> It depends from your baseline though. If you set a bar on the floor, it is easier to clear. I respect your opinion.
> I simply set it slightly higher. You can disagree with that or not, that's fine, but saying that being slower than ~50 countries is not a good result for Canada is hardly partisan


It is when you point out that most of those countries.
1. Had captive domestic production.
2. used vaccines that are not approved for use in Canada

I put my baseline based on the situation at the start of the pandemic.
We had no domestic production, which puts us at disadvantage. 
A politician who has captive supply and simply says "America First" isn't doing a better job than one who runs around the world to quickly secure a foreign supply. 

Of the leaders who had to scour the globe to get vaccine supply, Trudeau did well. Sure there are a few who did better, but it was far less than 50.


----------



## damian13ster

Vast majority of those countries had no captive domestic production.
Vaccine approval process is purely political. It was only for emergency use.
Most of the countries ahead of Canada still used only Pfizer, Moderna, and a bit of AZ before withdrawing it
Full approval for Pfizer came only 2 days ago.

Again, we simply have different standards. That's fine. It is hardly partisan though to say performance on vaccines was extremely poor for multiple reasons: slow procurement, botched communication, experimentation with mixing


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Vast majority of those countries had no captive domestic production.
> Vaccine approval process is purely political. It was only for emergency use.
> Most of the countries ahead of Canada still used only Pfizer, Moderna, and a bit of AZ before withdrawing it
> Full approval for Pfizer came only 2 days ago.
> 
> Again, we simply have different standards. That's fine. It is hardly partisan though to say performance on vaccines was extremely poor for multiple reasons: slow procurement, botched communication, experimentation with mixing


Again, lots to complain about, but they did relatively well.
You just provided a list without screening those with captive supply. Once you screen them out, it's a very different picture.

It is very partisan to retain irrelevant data in order to make something appear as though it is supporting your point.


----------



## Spudd

damian13ster said:


> (no, despite North American education system neither Europe nor UK are one country)


The *United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland*, commonly known as the *United Kingdom* (*UK*) or *Britain*,[note 11][19] is a sovereign country in north-western Europe, off the north-western coast of the European mainland. 








United Kingdom - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Again, lots to complain about, but they did relatively well.
> You just provided a list without screening those with captive supply. Once you screen them out, it's a very different picture.


So screen out Belgium, England, USA, and perhaps France?


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> So screen out Belgium, England, USA, and perhaps France?


Yes, because they all had domestic capacity.
There was no foreign procurement problem for them.


----------



## damian13ster

Spudd said:


> The *United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland*, commonly known as the *United Kingdom* (*UK*) or *Britain*,[note 11][19] is a sovereign country in north-western Europe, off the north-western coast of the European mainland.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United Kingdom - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


To start with, there's the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The U.K., as it is called, is a sovereign state that consists of four individual countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. 









What's the Difference Between England, Britain and the U.K.?


Listen up, would-be Anglophiles: Here's how never to mess up your realms, kingdoms and empires again




www.smithsonianmag.com


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> Yes, because they all had domestic capacity.
> There was no foreign procurement problem for them.


So you exclude 4 countries from that long list


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> So you exclude 4 countries from that long list


And many others. 
Come on, you know this. 

Why are you wasting time on a silly, unfounded criticism of Trudeau when there are so many appropriate things to criticize. Heck the mixing vaccines, or extending intervals are valid criticisms (both proven to be non issues,) but at least there is an argument to be made.

The fact that they ran all over trying to get lots of vaccine is a GOOD thing.
I don't care if they bought 4x the doses, we can give it away to those who need it.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> So you exclude 4 countries from that long list


I guess you ignore me, since I actually provide counter arguments, but you can exclude all UK protectorate countries.

You never answered if you're fine with Sputnik or the China vaccines.


----------



## gibor365

Government of Canada screwed my wife, daughter and million of Canadians with pushing mix and match vaccines... No cruises for us, no travel to Germany, UK and many other countries 




__





Redirect Notice






www.google.ca


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Government of Canada screwed my wife, daughter and million of Canadians with pushing mix and match vaccines... No cruises for us, no travel to Germany, UK and many other countries
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Redirect Notice
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.ca


If it's that big a deal, go book your second shot of Pfizer.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> If it's that big a deal, go book your second shot of Pfizer.


Really?! How?! My wife got mix AZ/Moderna, my daughter mix PFE/Moderna. At least government after screwing people up, could’ve offer 3rd shot of the same provider as 2nd one.
Tens thousands of people who got Indian Covishield got screwed at all


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> Government of Canada screwed my wife, daughter and million of Canadians with pushing mix and match vaccines... No cruises for us, no travel to Germany, UK and many other countries
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Redirect Notice
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.ca


That was your personal choice…even though recommended by govt. i wouldn’t say they screwed you.


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Really?! How?! My wife got mix AZ/Moderna, my daughter mix PFE/Moderna. At least government after screwing people up, could’ve offer 3rd shot of the same provider as 2nd one.
> Tens thousands of people who got Indian Covishield got screwed at all


If I cared, I'd go book a second shot of Pfizer and be done with it.

In your cases, book that second shot of Moderna if it's available.


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> Really?! How?! My wife got mix AZ/Moderna, my daughter mix PFE/Moderna.


Alberta is doing that, know people that have had their third shot already. First was AZ, then two of the same mRNA.


----------



## Beaver101

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney battles COVID-19 hospital crisis, internal party revolt



> ... Last week, he said he didn't act earlier because he didn't believe Albertans would have followed renewed health restrictions.


 ... always someone else's fault, and then the musical chairs shuffle tactic. 

I can see why Ford (Premier) got Elliott (Health Minister) to respond to Kenney's "in need of help".


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> Alberta is doing that, know people that have had their third shot already. First was AZ, then two of the same mRNA.


We are in Ontario, you cannot get 3rd shot of any vaccine!


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> That was your personal choice…even though recommended by govt. i wouldn’t say they screwed you.


 ... instead of the usual "me, me, me" first mentality, how about waiting abit longer to take that cruise-around-the-world to Germany, UK, etc. For gibor.


----------



## damian13ster

Agreed. Not much you can do now other than wait.
And learn not to trust what government tells you


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Agreed. Not much you can do now other than wait.
> *And learn not to trust what government tells you*


 ... perhaps not in its entirety but you got your own common sense (as a grown up) to trust some parts of it. Plus sometimes, you don't have a choice in the sense that a "no" don't give you the other choice either.


----------



## Money172375

gibor365 said:


> We are in Ontario, you cannot get 3rd shot of any vaccine!


Some people can.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... perhaps not in its entirety but you got your own common sense (as a grown up) to trust some parts of it. Plus sometimes, you don't have a choice in the sense that a "no" don't give you the other choice either.


No. I have a common sense to trust exactly that - common sense, and science.
If government follows common sense and science as well, then it aligns.
Unfortunately it is becoming very rare
Mixing vaccines didn't follow common sense or science and people who listened to the government are now getting punished.


----------



## gibor365

damian13ster said:


> Agreed. Not much you can do now other than wait.
> And learn not to trust what government tells you


I didn't! I was folowing CDC rules and walked away 3 times when guys at vaccination sites pushed me to mix vaccines. My wife and my daughter were more naive. They learnt now! Ignore Health Canada and NACI! Follow CDC/FDA


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> I didn't! I was folowing CDC rules and walked away 3 times when guys at vaccination sites pushed me to mix vaccines. My wife and my daughter were more naive. They learnt now! Ignore Health Canada and NACI! Follow CDC/FDA


Yes, because foreign governments always know what's right.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Yes, because foreign governments always know what's right.


Because the World mostly follows CDC/FDA direction, nobody care about Health Canada


----------



## MrMatt

gibor365 said:


> Because the World mostly follows CDC/FDA direction, nobody care about Health Canada


Well you're a bit US centric aren't you?

Russia and China didn't follow the CDC, and the UK AZ vaccine still isn't approved by the CDC.

If you want to be American, go ahead and move there, but I'm in Canada. The FDA can approve whatever they want, it has no legal status in Canada.


----------



## zinfit

We could save a lot of money and duplication by just adopting FDA and European approvals and CDC guidelines.. In the big picture we are indeed a small bug on the rear end of an elephant. We greatly exrggerate our own importance. In the final analysis they end up rubber stamping things have been approved elsewhere and review the same data. It may be news to me but did Health Canada ever do a full three stage clinical trial on Moderna or Pfizer covid vaccines or they did they simply review the US trials?


----------



## Beaver101

^


MrMatt said:


> Well you're a bit US centric aren't you?
> 
> Russia and China didn't follow the CDC, and the UK AZ vaccine still isn't approved by the CDC.
> 
> If you want to be American, go ahead and move there, but I'm in Canada. The FDA can approve whatever they want, it has no legal status in Canada.


 ...
no, he really loves Putin, first and foremost as he previously stated he would take the Sputnik V over any other vaccine, if the Sputnik was available in Canada.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> We could save a lot of money and duplication by just adopting FDA and European approvals and CDC guidelines.. In the big picture we are indeed a small bug on the rear end of an elephant. We greatly exrggerate our own importance. In the final analysis they end up rubber stamping things have been approved elsewhere and review the same data. It may be news to me but did Health Canada ever do a full three stage clinical trial on Moderna or Pfizer covid vaccines * or they did they simply review the US trials?*


 ... sounds like the latter part (bolded) of your question.

No, Canada should NOT be adopting other countries guidelines et al, just like relying on other countries' vaccine, PPE, etc. productions. We could end up paying through our noses (likely begun) for that reliance.


----------



## gibor365

zinfit said:


> We could save a lot of money and duplication by just adopting FDA and European approvals and CDC guidelines.. In the big picture we are indeed a small bug on the rear end of an elephant. We greatly exrggerate our own importance. In the final analysis they end up rubber stamping things have been approved elsewhere and review the same data. It may be news to me but did Health Canada ever do a full three stage clinical trial on Moderna or Pfizer covid vaccines or they did they simply review the US trials?


100% agree! Both Pfizer and Moderna (probably other drugs too) got approved here week or week and half after it was approved in US. Without CDC , Heath Canada approved AZ and got screwed!


----------



## Money172375

the US is now accepting international travellers from the UK and other high risk areas…if they are vaccinated. 

Has anyone seen the details? 

Are they accepting AZ or mixes from these (or any) countries?


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... sounds like the latter part (bolded) of your question.
> 
> No, Canada should NOT be adopting other countries guidelines et al, just like relying on other countries' vaccine, PPE, etc. productions. We could end up paying through our noses (likely begun) for that reliance.


well we approved the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines[ both USA vaccines] and we approved them on the basis of clinical trials done in the US and presented to the FDA. It must taken a day or two for Health Canada to approve once the FDA has approved them.


----------



## sags

Speaking of supply chains and shortages, and depending on foreign countries, .......you have to be careful.

During the Second World War the Allies held a famous summit between Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin.

During the summit, Stalin pulled Roosevelt aside and said Russia had a shortage of rubber to make condoms, so he asked Roosevelt to send some to Russia.

Stalin told his people that the order had to be for condoms measuring 10 inches long and 3 inches wide.

A few months later the condoms arrived and when opened they were indeed 10 inches long and 3 inches wide.

But they were also red, white and blue, and written in small letters on the bottom it read........Made in the USA.........size small.


----------



## bgc_fan

I guess it had to happen sooner than later. Covid party ended up with some participants in the ICU. Rather than take the vaccine they decided to try the natural immunity route.





CityNews







edmonton.citynews.ca


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> I guess it had to happen sooner than later. Covid party ended up with some participants in the ICU. Rather than take the vaccine they decided to try the natural immunity route.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CityNews
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edmonton.citynews.ca


In comparison to my suggestion, where I was suggesting low exposure, these idiots certainly did it wrong. If you follow my posts you will notice one important point I listed in every suggestion, "get fully vaccinated" first. I also added, don't do this if you have a comorbidity. I then added, outdoors, or low time exposure indoors. Those are huge differences.

Anyway, knowing the intelligence level of the average person, I agree we need to approach this differently. Teaching people how to obtain low exposure appears to be too difficult and for a small part of the population, too dangerous. What they did in that video was nothing short of stupid...or should I say average for a lot of our population. We need to get more older adults vaccinated and then slowly expose the population to the virus. Outdoor socializing is already well understood. The next is short time indoors, but that is not understood very well at all. Unmasked in certain retail stores would work well where time of exposure is very short, etc. 

But we can't do anything until we get the majority of people, age 50 or older vaccinated. That has to happen first.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Just a follow up.

The reason I am suggesting eventually obtaining low virus exposure is because there is really no other way. I am really trying make that point. If there was any other way to end this pandemic, I would be all for it. Anyone who follows my posts on Covid-19 should know that there was no one more covid aware then myself.

But here is the problem. Covid will not go away. It is everywhere in the world. We cannot stop the desire for our citizens to travel and international trade is a necessity anyway. Covid is incubated in animals so herd immunity cannot happen. It will not only be with us forever, but will continue to mutate.

Now let's look at the solution. We have some awesome vaccines, but they are not perfect. They leave vulnerable many people with comorbidities. They don't seem to work well enough for the few very rare exposure situations where a person gets an oversized dose of covid that even their vaccinated bodies cannot fight off. The vaccines don't stop infections from occurring or transmission from happening. They can only reduce it.

Now unless they invent a better vaccine we need to figure out a way to live with this virus. While we are figuring that out, the virus will continue to spread and with Delta, it will spread like wildfire once we go indoors. So if we are going to get exposed to the virus anyway, why not attempt to make our "first contact" as safe as possible. Since most people, not even trying, survive covid then die, it should not be hard for an intelligent species to figure out how to do that more safely then we have been doing. Once we all get a little exposure to the actual virus, future encounters with it and the mutations in the future should be less dangerous. That is why I keep pounding on this. There is no other way...only costly delays.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> well we approved the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines[ both USA vaccines] and we approved them on the basis of clinical trials done in the US and presented to the FDA. It must taken a day or two for Health Canada to approve once the FDA has approved them.


 ... time was/is the essence for this pandemic. Now that we got know what's a 'normal' pandemic is like, then no excuse to be self-sufficient for the next, particularly if the next GEN wants to survive.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Speaking of supply chains and shortages, and depending on foreign countries, .......you have to be careful.
> 
> During the Second World War the Allies held a famous summit between Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin.
> 
> During the summit, Stalin pulled Roosevelt aside and said Russia had a shortage of rubber to make condoms, so he asked Roosevelt to send some to Russia.
> 
> Stalin told his people that the order had to be for condoms measuring 10 inches long and 3 inches wide.
> 
> A few months later the condoms arrived and when opened they were indeed 10 inches long and 3 inches wide.
> 
> But they were also red, white and blue, and written in small letters on the bottom it read........Made in the USA.........size small.


 ...  on the floor. [If beige-coloured balloons were available, Roosevelt should have sent those instead - alot cheaper and size might have been bigger too.]


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> Just a follow up.
> 
> The reason I am suggesting eventually obtaining low virus exposure is because there is really no other way. I am really trying make that point. If there was any other way to end this pandemic, I would be all for it. Anyone who follows my posts on Covid-19 should know that there was no one more covid aware then myself.
> 
> But here is the problem. Covid will not go away. It is everywhere in the world. We cannot stop the desire for our citizens to travel and international trade is a necessity anyway. Covid is incubated in animals so herd immunity cannot happen. It will not only be with us forever, but will continue to mutate.
> 
> Now let's look at the solution. We have some awesome vaccines, but they are not perfect. They leave vulnerable many people with comorbidities. They don't seem to work well enough for the few very rare exposure situations where a person gets an oversized dose of covid that even their vaccinated bodies cannot fight off. The vaccines don't stop infections from occurring or transmission from happening. They can only reduce it.
> 
> Now unless they invent a better vaccine we need to figure out a way to live with this virus. While we are figuring that out, the virus will continue to spread and with Delta, it will spread like wildfire once we go indoors. So if we are going to get exposed to the virus anyway, why not attempt to make our "first contact" as safe as possible. Since most people, not even trying, survive covid then die, it should not be hard for an intelligent species to figure out how to do that more safely then we have been doing. Once we all get a little exposure to the actual virus, future encounters with it and the mutations in the future should be less dangerous. That is why I keep pounding on this. There is no other way...only costly delays.


 ... care to go first? Even you're far more intelligent than those CovIdiots.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> the US is now accepting international travellers from the UK and other high risk areas…if they are vaccinated.
> 
> Has anyone seen the details?
> 
> Are they accepting AZ or mixes from these (or any) countries?


 ... looks like no British (on this forum) wants to travel to the USA (and vice-versa) at this moment so no one knows.


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... time was/is the essence for this pandemic. Now that we got know what's a 'normal' pandemic is like, then no excuse to be self-sufficient for the next, particularly if the next GEN wants to survive.


lots of luck getting a small country to carry out a full length and comprehensive set of clinical trials so we can duplicate what the USA and the EU is already doing. The US put 10 billion dollars to support the developments of covid vaccines. No problem Trudeau could find 10 billion to duplicate the process. I would like to know one approved drug that Canada didn't use and rely on clinical trials and data from the USA and elsewhere. It is delusional and crazy for anyone thinking we are doing our own studies. The Liberals because of their policies have driven out the Big Pharma sector years ago. When it comes to the development and approval of drugs we are not in the big leagues and we don't even have a team in the minor leagues. It would be frightening if Dr Tam was really trying to do this stuff.


----------



## sags

Alberta is a disaster, but Saskatchewan is even worse. Kenney and Moe both chose ideology (rights and freedoms etc) over public safety.

We will see if the voters in those Provinces are okay with the handling of the pandemic.


----------



## gibor365

zinfit said:


> lots of luck getting a small country to carry out a full length and comprehensive set of clinical trials so we can duplicate what the USA and the EU is already doing. The US put 10 billion dollars to support the developments of covid vaccines. No problem Trudeau could find 10 billion to duplicate the process. I would like to know one approved drug that Canada didn't use and rely on clinical trials and data from the USA and elsewhere. It is delusional and crazy for anyone thinking we are doing our own studies. The Liberals because of their policies have driven out the Big Pharma sector years ago. When it comes to the development and approval of drugs we are not in the big leagues and we don't even have a team in the minor leagues. It would be frightening if Dr Tam was really trying to do this stuff.


Imho, there are 2 major reasons:

show off and pretend that Canafs is superpower
employ many thousands of government workers


----------



## sags

Canada already does lots of clinical trials, often administered by university researchers. I just completed a cardiac study that went on for 10 years.

It was a pain to get checked all the time, but the upside was I had access to the best monitoring, doctors and treatments throughout the study.

Canada also has small biopharma companies researching and developing many drugs. I used to invest in them.









COVID-19: working together on a solution | Innovative Medicines Canada


The global outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) [...]




innovativemedicines.ca


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> In comparison to my suggestion, where I was suggesting low exposure, these idiots certainly did it wrong. If you follow my posts you will notice one important point I listed in every suggestion, "get fully vaccinated" first. I also added, don't do this if you have a comorbidity. I then added, outdoors, or low time exposure indoors. Those are huge differences.
> 
> Anyway, knowing the intelligence level of the average person, I agree we need to approach this differently. Teaching people how to obtain low exposure appears to be too difficult and for a small part of the population, too dangerous. What they did in that video was nothing short of stupid...or should I say average for a lot of our population. We need to get more older adults vaccinated and then slowly expose the population to the virus. Outdoor socializing is already well understood. The next is short time indoors, but that is not understood very well at all. Unmasked in certain retail stores would work well where time of exposure is very short, etc.


Well, that's the danger when you start promoting a covid-lite party. People latch on certain aspects and ignore the rest.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Well, that's the danger when you start promoting a covid-lite party. People latch on certain aspects and ignore the rest.


That's why you don't do it that way. Probably the best way is to simply get the vulnerable people vaccinated and then open up fully and don't say much to anyone. I have observed, especially on this board, that it is a very difficult thing to teach and no matter how well it is done to reduce the danger of the primary infections, you have less control over the secondary and tertiary infections and so on. There is stuff that can be done to reduce those but again, all requires education and discipline. Something the average person lacks. The average person expects our leaders to come up with a fool proof plan that protects everyone, no matter how stupid each person wants to act. That is obviously not going to happen.

To illustrate my suggestion of first getting the older adults vaccinated and then embrace exposure. Take a look at the Alberta and Saskatchewan situation, but first remove all the hospitalizations and ICU admissions for people age 50 and older. How is Alberta and Saskatchewan doing now? Their plan was fine except they missed a vital component for it to succeed. If we don't get our citizens, age 50 or older, vaccinated, there is actually no plan that will work, whether you advocate precaution to reduce spread or opening up to end the pandemic.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> That's why you don't do it that way. Probably the best way is to simply get the vulnerable people vaccinated and then open up fully and don't say much to anyone. I have observed, especially on this board, that it is a very difficult thing to teach and no matter how well it is done to reduce the danger of the primary infections, you have less control over the secondary and tertiary infections and so on. There is stuff that can be done to reduce those but again, all requires education and discipline. Something the average person lacks. The average person expects our leaders to come up with a fool proof plan that protects everyone, no matter how stupid each person wants to act. That is obviously not going to happen.
> 
> To illustrate my suggestion of first getting the older adults vaccinated and then embrace exposure. Take a look at the Alberta and Saskatchewan situation, but first remove all the hospitalizations and ICU admissions for people age 50 and older. How is Alberta and Saskatchewan doing now? Their plan was fine except they missed a vital component for it to succeed. If we don't get our citizens, age 50 or older, vaccinated, there is actually no plan that will work, whether you advocate precaution to reduce spread or opening up to end the pandemic.


We're talking about currently? They don't have a plan though, they just decided to go and open up and assume that things were ok. Unless you think their plan was to let all the unvaccinated get infected for natural immunity because of people who keep making the argument that natural immunity is better than vaccination.

As it is, most of those in the ICU are unvaccinated regardless of age group.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-severe-outcomes-covid-vaccination-1.6178449



If you want to watch the yo-yo effect of restrictions and cases in Alberta:



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-coronavirus-september-22-1.6185171


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> We're talking about currently? They don't have a plan though, they just decided to go and open up and assume that things were ok. Unless you think their plan was to let all the unvaccinated get infected for natural immunity because of people who keep making the argument that natural immunity is better than vaccination.
> 
> As it is, most of those in the ICU are unvaccinated regardless of age group.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-severe-outcomes-covid-vaccination-1.6178449
> 
> 
> 
> *If you want to watch the yo-yo effect of restrictions and cases in Alberta:*
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-coronavirus-september-22-1.6185171


 ... bolded latter link looks more like a first or second wave than a fourth and today is September 23, 2021, some 1.8 years into a pandemic with nothing learned. 

Is the province of Alberta special from the rest of country known as Canada or is it just its premier + health minister (that has been swapped with the labour & immigration minister vice-versa) like a couple of jokes.


----------



## sags

_To illustrate my suggestion of first getting the older adults vaccinated and then embrace exposure. 
_
Sorry, but I don't plan on "embracing" exposure to COVID anytime soon.


----------



## andrewf

KaeJS said:


> I don't think I will catch covid.
> And if I did, I don't think I would die.
> 
> But I am not going to purposefully inject myself with the vaccine and purposely come into contact with it.


You will catch COVID. Pretty much everyone will. It is inevitable. We just don't want it to happen all at the same time as a certain % will need hospital care.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> We're talking about currently? They don't have a plan though, they just decided to go and open up and assume that things were ok. Unless you think their plan was to let all the unvaccinated get infected for natural immunity because of people who keep making the argument that natural immunity is better than vaccination.
> 
> As it is, most of those in the ICU are unvaccinated regardless of age group.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-severe-outcomes-covid-vaccination-1.6178449
> 
> 
> 
> If you want to watch the yo-yo effect of restrictions and cases in Alberta:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-coronavirus-september-22-1.6185171


I have no idea what Alberta or Saskatchewan's plan was. Obviously, because I keep repeating it in all my posts, I believe that everyone who is vulnerable would get vaccinated first and then we should face the virus. If we do that it ends, if we don't it never does. If we wait too long we risk losing the protection of the vaccines through either waning or new virus mutations.

I wish there was a better way, but there is not.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> _To illustrate my suggestion of first getting the older adults vaccinated and then embrace exposure. _
> 
> Sorry, but I don't plan on "embracing" exposure to COVID anytime soon.


 ... sounds like everyone except for the die-hard-CovIdiots.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> You will catch COVID. Pretty much everyone will. It is inevitable. We just don't want it to happen all at the same time as a certain % will need hospital care.


And hopefully they'll develop more effective treatments.
The big problem at the beginning was the only treatment was to pump your lungs full of oxygen in the hope that you'd survive if given a bit more time. To be fair, this method did save lives.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> _To illustrate my suggestion of first getting the older adults vaccinated and then embrace exposure. _
> 
> Sorry, but I don't plan on "embracing" exposure to COVID anytime soon.


Then you obviously don't plan to meet with anyone, ever again. At least not without a mask on. That's an option of course. Just a bad one if you ask me. I find it hard to eat a Christmas dinner with family wearing a mask. I find the turkey gets caught up in it.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Sounds like a CovIdiot-wannabee. I'm sure sags will come up with a better term.

Edit: No, wait, let's use gibor's favourite term: a retard?


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario still undecided on making COVID-19 vaccines mandatory for long-term care staff

Rod and Kieran needs to sit down and have an honest talk about "protecting seniors in LTC" other than the continuous theatricals of "monitoring" and "leaving no stones un-turned" before it becomes a game of fingers-pointing tennis that taxpayers are have all seen too well. Let's (Ontarians) not forget that the provincial election is gonna be held in the not too far distance (2022, next year soon).


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> I have no idea what Alberta or Saskatchewan's plan was. Obviously, because I keep repeating it in all my posts, I believe that everyone who is vulnerable would get vaccinated first and then we should face the virus. If we do that it ends, if we don't it never does. If we wait too long we risk losing the protection of the vaccines through either waning or new virus mutations.
> 
> I wish there was a better way, but there is not.


You don't have to be a resident to realize that when they said they opened up all business, and removed all restrictions, that their plan was: "we're good to go, no more covid problems".

Edit: I'll point out that there were a lot of cheering for Alberta to open up in July on this forum, and I mentioned that we'll see what happens in September. In contrast, there were lots of jeering at Ontario for taking longer to open up, and now cases are starting to plateau. We'll see what happens in November, but a significant difference is the rate of vaccination between when Alberta opened, and now with Ontario gradually relaxing restrictions.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Then you obviously don't plan to meet with anyone, ever again. At least not without a mask on. That's an option of course. Just a bad one if you ask me. I find it hard to eat a Christmas dinner with family wearing a mask. I find the turkey gets caught up in it.


Nope, just suggesting we hold back a bit until we are in a situation we won't overload our hospitals.
1. An effective vaccine.
2. Quick and effective treatments
3. maybe natural immunity, which should happen over time, hopefully we don't get any very bad variants.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Nope, just suggesting we hold back a bit until we are in a situation we won't overload our hospitals.
> 1. An effective vaccine.
> 2. Quick and effective treatments
> 3. maybe natural immunity, which should happen over time, hopefully we don't get any very bad variants.


Do you really think the majority of vaccinated Canadians are going to skip Christmas with family waiting for all of that dream stuff you just listed? What world do you live in? Just take a look at what your friends and family are doing right now and ask yourself if they look like they are going to wait until someone invents something to do something that might help someone they don't know.

Listen people. The vaccinated have decided to go on with their lives. They do not fear this virus like most on this board do. They are not even reading this board. That is going to create a big problem for you. You either avoid them all or you figure out a way to meet with them safely. I can't see you wearing a mask at your Christmas gathering. If it was me, I would skip it completely if that was my only plan.

I am just trying to give you a heads up and a way to get that future exposure, you are all going to get, safely. Just let it happen naturally if you prefer. Do it the dangerous way. Let the virus pick the time and place. I really could care less.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Do you really think the majority of vaccinated Canadians are going to skip Christmas with family waiting for all of that dream stuff you just listed?


Nope, they're not even skipping socializing now.



> What world do you live in? Just take a look at what your friends and family are doing right now and ask yourself if they look like they are going to wait until someone invents something to do something that might help someone they don't know.


I think I live in the real world. I'd just like it if we didn't overload our hospitals.



> Listen people. The vaccinated have decided to go on with their lives. They do not fear this virus like most on this board do.


What most? I don't think the people on this board "fear the virus", most people seem to be taking a reasonable and balanced approach, some abit more aggressive, some a bit more careful.



> I am just trying to give you a heads up and a way to get that future exposure, you are all going to get, safely. Just let it happen naturally if you prefer. Do it the dangerous way. Let the virus pick the time and place. I really could care less.


Yeah, well safely, FOR ME, means that there is a hospital bed if I need it. 
It's really simplem, If there are no beds, we should be more careful, if there are lots of beds, less careful.

You do realize that if you get COVID you still might get really sick. Like vaccination helps a lot but there will still be many thousands of vaccinated people in hospital, if that happens all at once, lots of them, and others who have other conditions, will die.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> And hopefully they'll develop more effective treatments.
> The big problem at the beginning was the only treatment was to pump your lungs full of oxygen in the hope that you'd survive if given a bit more time. To be fair, this method did save lives.


Regeneron and others have developed highly effective cocktail treatments. They have two problems. The effectiveness is only good with covid in its early stage. Secondly it must be administer by intravenous. Pfizer is working on pill form and that would be a big plus.


----------



## MrMatt

More variants, apparently there are a slew of R.1 variants that are making waves.


----------



## bgc_fan

This is kind of a bleak outlook. Alberta's ICUs aren't being completely overrun because the amount of incoming patients are being balanced by deaths.




__





Sad reality: Alberta top doc says COVID deaths keeping hospitals from being overrun


EDMONTON — The head of Alberta’s health system says the COVID-19 hospital crisis has become so dire, a key reason the system hasn’t collapsed is because…




nationalpost.com





_There were 29 fatalities reported Tuesday, 20 more Wednesday — including the first person under age 20 — and 17 on Thursday. More than 2,600 people have died in Alberta._

That's balanced by approximately 2 dozen new patients every day.


----------



## sags

Hokey doodle.....things appear to be getting worse and they say on a population basis Saskatchewan is even worse.

It appears the Delta virus is charging ahead relentlessly everywhere, and the healthcare system across Canada is under siege.


----------



## Beaver101

^ What would be even worst is having to dig up for mass graves.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario increasing capacity limits in some situations…..seems mostly catering to the Jays and Leafs.


----------



## bgc_fan

For some positive news, it looks like Ontario's fourth wave may be peaking. It will still take a month or so to see if there's going to be a big effect from the school opening and loosening of restrictions.








Ontario Dashboard - Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table


NOTICE: This website is no longer updated.If you have questions about previously published Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table resources, please email [email protected] Current Status in Ontario Contents Current Status in Ontario Current COVID-19 Risk in Ontario by Vaccination Status...




covid19-sciencetable.ca


----------



## zinfit

bgc_fan said:


> For some positive news, it looks like Ontario's fourth wave may be peaking. It will still take a month or so to see if there's going to be a big effect from the school opening and loosening of restrictions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario Dashboard - Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table
> 
> 
> NOTICE: This website is no longer updated.If you have questions about previously published Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table resources, please email [email protected] Current Status in Ontario Contents Current Status in Ontario Current COVID-19 Risk in Ontario by Vaccination Status...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid19-sciencetable.ca


Alberta and SK had an extremely hot summer On some days the temperatures were over 100 fahrenheit. The rise in the cases in both provinces is similar to Florida and Texas. They have there big spikes in the summer during their vary hot summers. In some ways it is similar to our winters in terms of indoor gatherings. The data is suggesting that this fourth wave is dropping in those states. I am hoping the same happens in Alberta and Sk .


----------



## bgc_fan

zinfit said:


> Alberta and SK had an extremely hot summer On some days the temperatures were over 100 fahrenheit. The rise in the cases in both provinces is similar to Florida and Texas. They have there big spikes in the summer during their vary hot summers. In some ways it is similar to our winters in terms of indoor gatherings. The data is suggesting that this fourth wave is dropping in those states. I am hoping the same happens in Alberta and Sk .


Enough with the rationalization with the weather. Notice that most of the cases in Alberta are those who are from rural areas with low vaccination rates? Areas which are less dense than major urban centers like Edmonton. Unless you want to say that Edmonton is a microclimate that somehow doesn't get hot. It's amazing the amount of ways that people try to rationalize increased caseloads. First it was: it's winter everyone is inside, so high transmission, everything will clear up by spring. Then summer wave hits, "it's hot, everyone is inside".

Here are some monthly Average temperatures:
Calgary: May- 15.4, June-24.1, July-26.5, August-23.8, Sept-19.7
Edmonton: May- 16.9, June-25.0, July-25.9, August-23.9, Sept-19.5

Regina: May- 18.1, June-25.9, July-29.3, August-24.8, Sept-22.1
Saskatoon: May- 18.0, June-26.1, July-29.8, August-24.6, Sept-21.6

Ottawa: May- 19.7, June-26.7, July-25.1, August-27.9, Sept-22.7
Toronto: May- 19.7, June-27.3, July-25.6, August-28.9, Sept-23.9

So basically outside of July which was warmer in Saskatchewan, it was warmer in Ontario, yet we don't see the same thing.


----------



## zinfit

bgc_fan said:


> Enough with the rationalization with the weather. Notice that most of the cases in Alberta are those who are from rural areas with low vaccination rates? Areas which are less dense than major urban centers like Edmonton. Unless you want to say that Edmonton is a microclimate that somehow doesn't get hot. It's amazing the amount of ways that people try to rationalize increased caseloads. First it was: it's winter everyone is inside, so high transmission, everything will clear up by spring. Then summer wave hits, "it's hot, everyone is inside".
> 
> Here are some monthly Average temperatures:
> Calgary: May- 15.4, June-24.1, July-26.5, August-23.8, Sept-19.7
> Edmonton: May- 16.9, June-25.0, July-25.9, August-23.9, Sept-19.5
> 
> Regina: May- 18.1, June-25.9, July-29.3, August-24.8, Sept-22.1
> Saskatoon: May- 18.0, June-26.1, July-29.8, August-24.6, Sept-21.6
> 
> Ottawa: May- 19.7, June-26.7, July-25.1, August-27.9, Sept-22.7
> Toronto: May- 19.7, June-27.3, July-25.6, August-28.9, Sept-23.9
> 
> So basically outside of July which was warmer in Saskatchewan, it was warmer in Ontario, yet we don't see the same thing.


not rationalizing just saying its a factor. Clearly their are a number of factors contributing to this mess.


----------



## bgc_fan

zinfit said:


> not rationalizing just saying its a factor. Clearly their are a number of factors contributing to this mess.


It's an exceeding small factor that people who don't like facing the truth latch onto. Measures like social distancing, masking and indoor capacity limits mitigate the factor that people may be indoors more. Like I said before, other places have had warmer summers, yet their case loads haven't skyrocketed.


----------



## OptsyEagle

The situation is this. Apart from a few exceptions, the vast majority of the people in the ICU right now would constitute the following:

1) Unvaccinated
2) Mostly older then 50
3) Were indoors, for a considerable amount of time, when they obtained the dangerous infection that put them there.
4) Were not wearing a mask.

It does not matter about weather because if we know anything about weather, we know it changes. Even in the best temperature months, it still rains now and then. People are going to go indoors. Soon, going indoors will become the norm.

When you look at the list above you can pretty much eliminate the ability to keep people from socializing indoors. That is because there are way too many vaccinated people and they feel too safe to hold back from being with the people they enjoy and love. You may reduce it a little, but with the Delta variant, that probably will not enough. You cannot get them to wear masks indoors either. You can in commercial situations and public venues but eventually it will come off when they socialize with friends. A while back I brought up the hypocrisy nonsense of having a person wear a mask while going into a liquor store for 10 minutes only to watch them take it off when they arrive at their friends house and stay indoors, with many others for 5 hours. Masks cannot protect us anymore, they only delay what will eventually happen.

There is one more factor that is involved in the list above and for every infection ever, and that is the law that one cannot get infected unless someone with an active infection gets close to them. So the reason Alberta and Saskatchewan are ahead of the other provinces (note, I only said ahead. The other provinces will catch up soon) is they allowed more infections to happen and hence are starting with a higher active case count. Most of those primary infections were fairly benign but they are leading to more dangerous infections that are coming from the secondary transmissions of the virus.

The bottom line is #1 and #2. If we do not get people age 50 or older to vaccinate, there is absolutely nothing that is going to prevent serious carnage, in every province, this fall and winter. You can pull back or open up and the only difference will be timing. Timing is important and perhaps a strategy in itself, but it does not save the lives of those people. They eventually get infected and a lot of them eventually will die. Adults age 50 and older MUST vaccinate.


----------



## Beaver101

Anti-vaxxers don’t have a right to accommodations, Ontario human rights watchdog says



> ... _The decision to get vaccinated is voluntary, and a “person who chooses not to be vaccinated based on personal preference does not have the right to accommodation under the (Human Rights Code),” the Ontario Human Rights Commission said this week in a policy paper discussing the limits of vaccine mandates and proof-of-vaccination requirements.
> 
> While human rights law prohibits discrimination based on creed — someone’s religion, or a non-religious belief system that shapes their identity, world view and way of life — personal preferences or singular beliefs do not amount to a creed, the commission said, adding it “is not aware of any tribunal or court decision that found a singular belief against vaccinations or masks amounted to a creed within the meaning of the Code.”
> 
> Furthermore, even if someone can show they have been denied service or employment over their creed, “the duty to accommodate does not necessarily require they be exempted from vaccine mandates, certification or COVID testing requirements,” the commission said. “The duty to accommodate can be limited if it would significantly compromise health and safety amounting to undue hardship — such as during a pandemic.” ... _


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> So the reason Alberta and Saskatchewan are ahead of the other provinces (note, I only said ahead. The other provinces will catch up soon) is they allowed more infections to happen and hence are starting with a higher active case count.


That's MAY catch up. The difference is the rate of vaccination before things open up. Currently, Alberta still has the lowest rate, and was much lower back in July. Provinces opening up now, or at least reducing restrictions have a higher vaccination rate. Another factor is that we are vaccinating 12+ year olds which wasn't the case back in July, which reduces the possibility of viral spread within that age group. Having a higher vaccination rate is what can decouple cases from ICU and death. The higher rate means lower chance of serious symptoms even if more people get infected in absolute numbers.

The issue about weather is that it is an excuse people use to justify doing nothing. Because, then it isn't their fault since they can't control it. Easier to accept that as a cause of increased infections than accepting the fact that people aren't getting vaccinated, or follow public health measures.


----------



## andrewf

agent99 said:


> I does get worse and worse. As of today, *1 of every 500* Americans has *DIED* of Covid since the first death last year. Doesn't that number get your attention?
> 
> Maybe the number would be a lot less if they had worn masks and got vaccinated.
> 
> You say you can't lose. Well, actually you can. You can *DIE*. If you want to live - get vaccinated now! Having other people vaccinated doesn't necessarily protect you.


Contrast that to the response to 1 / 100k Americans getting killed on 9/11.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> That's MAY catch up. The difference is the rate of vaccination before things open up. Currently, Alberta still has the lowest rate, and was much lower back in July. Provinces opening up now, or at least reducing restrictions have a higher vaccination rate. Another factor is that we are vaccinating 12+ year olds which wasn't the case back in July, which reduces the possibility of viral spread within that age group. Having a higher vaccination rate is what can decouple cases from ICU and death. The higher rate means lower chance of serious symptoms even if more people get infected in absolute numbers.
> 
> The issue about weather is that it is an excuse people use to justify doing nothing. Because, then it isn't their fault since they can't control it. Easier to accept that as a cause of increased infections than accepting the fact that people aren't getting vaccinated, or follow public health measures.


Sure. My point about weather is that it is a fact of life. It changes and we know that so we need to factor it into our plans. Even if the October was the beginning of Spring, it will not change the fact that we have a large part of our population just waiting to be infected and become a problem for our hospitals.

I can't argue with the "May" aspect of catching up point you made. I suspect we won't have enough time to get the main group of people vaccinated. The people older then age 50 who have not taken their vaccination. We need to get them vaccinated before we go indoors due to the cooler weather. Even if all the other people are vaccinated this vulnerable group will still be a problem, going forward, but the degree of the problem is yet to be seen. Our hospitals may be OK. Perhaps we can delay enough of that vulnerable groups illnesses to be able to move them through our hospitals, over a longer period of time. We will have to see. Either way a large number of them will be getting horribly sick. That is about all we really know for sure. Which ones will get the bullet in the chamber from the Russian roulette they seem to want to play, we will also have to wait to find out. In any case, even the empty chambers will represent a horrible couple of weeks of touch and go recovery. I hope they remember it well. A mistake is quite the waste if you don't at least learn something from it.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> I can't argue with the "May" aspect of catching up point you made. I suspect we won't have enough time to get the main group of people vaccinated.


To reach 90%? Not likely. However, there's going to be pockets of the population where you have high enough vaccination rates where it shouldn't be as big a problem. The issue is that there are pockets of Alberta where first dose is 40-50%, leading to this mess. Meaning that full vaccination is even less. In other words, Alberta should never have opened up when there were regions with vaccination rates that low.



https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#highlights




https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/forty-mile-county-alberta-vivien-suttorp-skiff-foremost-1.6187623



Ontario is better with the lowest first dose rate is at 68%.






COVID-19 Tracker Canada - Provincial Vaccination Tracker


Near real-time vaccination data for each province in Canada.



covid19tracker.ca


----------



## sags

Our local schools are having outbreaks, and health authorities are watching it closely.

So far, it appears the outbreaks are starting outside of the school and being brought in.

The numbers are increasing and that is a concern. I am happy the local authorities are "on it" and ready to close down if necessary.

I wonder if during this pandemic any effort has been made to make online learning any more interesting for the students. The reality is that these kids live online and that could be a plus in developing better online experiences.

A whole classroom........like a Zoom call with faces on the screen and interaction among students would be a great improvement.

As they say........when you get handed lemons.........make lemonade.

Note......you can now obtain valid degrees online from reputable, recognized Canadian universities, but a different model is needed for kids.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> To reach 90%? Not likely. However, there's going to be pockets of the population where you have high enough vaccination rates where it shouldn't be as big a problem. The issue is that there are pockets of Alberta where first dose is 40-50%, leading to this mess. Meaning that full vaccination is even less. In other words, Alberta should never have opened up when there were regions with vaccination rates that low.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#highlights
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/forty-mile-county-alberta-vivien-suttorp-skiff-foremost-1.6187623
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario is better with the lowest first dose rate is at 68%.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Tracker Canada - Provincial Vaccination Tracker
> 
> 
> Near real-time vaccination data for each province in Canada.
> 
> 
> 
> covid19tracker.ca


No doubt Ontario is better off, but will it be enough? My concern is that we will always have a large group of unvaccinated people in our society. With them, combined with the amount of transmission that can take place even with the vaccinated (reduced by unfortuneately not eliminated) that vulnerable group I talk about (unvaccinated, age 50 or older) will always be in jeopardy. The most we can hope for is to spread their infections over a longer amount of time to allow our hospitals to deal with them.

Anyway, at least there is a chance our hospitals might manage through this next wave, so that would at least be something, if we can pull that off. It will be an interesting few months to watch.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Anyway, at least there is a chance our hospitals might manage through this next wave, so that would at least be something, if we can pull that off. It will be an interesting few months to watch.


Right. Like I said before, we're not likely to see the effects for another month at least. Restrictions are loosening now, so it could be up to 2 months before the full effects are seen.


----------



## damian13ster

Norway just ditched all restrictions. No masks, no distancing, no restrictions on travel


----------



## bgc_fan

Looks like a couple of studies showing that masking in schools can help decrease the chances of outbreaks.








Masks in school help prevent Covid-19 outbreaks and spread, CDC studies find | CNN


The CDC released study data to support the agency's recommendation for universal indoor masking in schools.




www.cnn.com


----------



## KaeJS

Australia is beyond fcked up...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1441437065670012928


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Our local schools are having outbreaks, and health authorities are watching it closely.


What schools had outbreaks this school year?
BTW, you need more than 1 case for it to be an outbreak.
Just like last year, the schools don't seem to be spreading






COVID-19 Alerts







www.tvdsb.ca












Status of LDCSB Schools During COVID-19


London District Catholic School Board




www.ldcsb.ca







> So far, it appears the outbreaks are starting outside of the school and being brought in.
> 
> The numbers are increasing and that is a concern. I am happy the local authorities are "on it" and ready to close down if necessary.


The numbers are still very low in schools, remember most kids can't get vaccinated.



> I wonder if during this pandemic any effort has been made to make online learning any more interesting for the students. The reality is that these kids live online and that could be a plus in developing better online experiences.


Online learning was a failure at elementary schools.
It should be better, but it isn't.



> A whole classroom........like a Zoom call with faces on the screen and interaction among students would be a great improvement.


Since that is EXACTLY what they do in Google Classroom, how is the status quo an improvement?
Doesn't work with kids under 12, they goof off too much.

You're posting unsubstantiated claims, and voicing uninformed opinions on what is happening.
You didn't even know that for the areas largest school board they already have the whole class in a conference call (like Zoom)


----------



## sags

_However, COVID-19, specifically the Delta variant, is showing up in enough Middlesex-London kids to give the medical officer of health a few more worry lines in his brow. 

Chris Mackie didn’t want to alarm anybody at Thursday’s media briefing, but in recent weeks there’s been *“significantly high rates of COVID” in children*, among both ages zero to 11, who aren’t eligible for vaccinations, and *12 to 17 year olds*, who can get shots.

On Thursday, *18 schools *— 13 elementary and five secondary — were listed with cases on the health unit’s COVID-19 online dashboard. A *second school outbreak *in a week was declared Wednesday, this time at *St. Thomas More Catholic elementary school with four cases.*

Mackie said the increase in infections is “not related to school opening” and “the rates actually had been high for about two weeks prior to school opening.”

How high? How about 10-fold compared to a year ago. _









SIMS: Child COVID-19 cases in London area kindle worry, if not panic


This is not the time to hit the panic button.




lfpress.com


----------



## sags

_You didn't even know that for the areas largest school board they already have the whole class in a conference call (like Zoom)_

The largest school board in the area is the public Thames Valley School Board. It is almost 5 times larger than the London District Catholic School Board.

How long do you think it will be before the virus spreads through the schools ? We have been here before several times......and the schools had to close.

The only consistent factor with the Ford government's education policy is the high level of inconsistent decisions. That puts him in "not so good" company.


----------



## sags

The handling of Covid is going to make or break governments.

It boosted Trudeau in the Federal election, will likely cost Kenney in the next Alberta election, raises questions about the Saskatchewan government, and will be a big factor in next spring's Ontario election. Some politicians will be rewarded by the voters and some will be punished.

The covid virus is going to leave a noticeable wake behind even after it passes by.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> _You didn't even know that for the areas largest school board they already have the whole class in a conference call (like Zoom)_
> 
> The largest school board in the area is the public Thames Valley School Board. It is almost 5 times larger than the London District Catholic School Board.


I know that, and that's who I was refering to when I said they're using Google Classroom, and they were using it like a "Zoom Call" for their synchronous learning period times.
My point is that you were recommending an "improvement" which is already the standard in our city.



> How long do you think it will be before the virus spreads through the schools ? We have been here before several times......and the schools had to close.


No, the schools didn't have to close, they CHOSE to close.
The data was very clear that in all the previous waves, schools weren't the cause of the spread, and students in school caught COVID at lower rates than the general public.
Even now for the first month at school, we've had very few outbreaks, despite the fact that school aged kids are the largest unvaccinated group in the country.

Maybe it will change, but I'm not sure why.


----------



## investor65

Here in Alberta, in one day last week, there were 23 new ICU patients.

100% were unvaccinated.


----------



## zinfit

Children and teenagers. The reports from the CDC and other respectable authorities would indicate that severe outcomes are rare among this group. The children with certain health conditions are at risk like older adults with similar conditions. I did see a chart for Alberta by age groups for hospitalizations and it appears to be consistent with the CDC reports. The people who are clogging up the healthcare system are unvaccinated adults especially people over 50.


----------



## OptsyEagle

If you look at the people currently in the ICU you pretty much have more "vaccinated" breakthrough cases with adults then you have "unvaccinated" children under age 12. What that means is that it appears the immune systems of our children are actually better then the vaccine boosted immune systems of our older adults. 

Our pandemic problem is quite simple now. Vaccinate everyone older then age 50 and it is pretty much over. After this one group gets vaccinated covid-19 should drop in severity to be similar to a very bad flu season. Perhaps the 1st full year of full reopening a little worse then that but dropping quickly as we all get a little more exposure to this virus.


----------



## bgc_fan

It looks like having public measures in place in addition to vaccination can help with reducing the covid infection rate, and subsequent reduction in hospitalization.









Ontario’s COVID-19 rates lower than expected due to public health measures: experts


Ontario is reporting 653 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday




www.saultstar.com


----------



## Beaver101

School-aged children now account for more COVID-19 cases per capita than any other age group in Toronto



> _ School-aged children now account for the highest share of COVID-19 cases of any demographic in Toronto but the city’s top doctor says that *most infections are still being tied back to household transmission and not classroom outbreaks. *
> ...
> De Villa that while there is limited data on the vaccination status of *school-aged parents, one can use the 30 to 49 age group as a “reasonable proxy.”*
> 
> She said that *about 25 per cent of that age group is not fully vaccinated,* suggesting there is “still some work that needs to be done.”
> 
> “Our data suggests about 190,000 (of that group) have not received a first dose,” she said. “It’s important for the board to recognize that it is absolutely key for parents to get vaccinated.”
> ...
> Meanwhile, Toronto Public Health says it has formed a working group to *plan the rollout and administration of COVID-19 vaccines to kids aged 5-11 once Health Canada gives final approval.*
> 
> Pfizer says it plans to submit its COVID-19 vaccine trial data from children to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in the next several days. ... _


 ... I'm not sure what is the point of vaccinating the kids if the parents aren't vaccinated, particularly with the statement that transmissions aren't occurring at schools but at home? Duh.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> School-aged children now account for more COVID-19 cases per capita than any other age group in Toronto
> 
> ... I'm not sure what is the point of vaccinating the kids if the parents aren't vaccinated, particularly with the statement that transmissions aren't occurring at schools but at home? Duh.


Because in the last 5-15 years the "natural" stuff was super popular, so a lot of of these kids have stupid moms who believe in nature, and crystals and essential oils, instead of science.


----------



## Beaver101

^ And where's the dad?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ And where's the dad?


Most men
1. Do whatever it takes to get laid.
2. Don't argue with mom about parenting.

Or maybe it's the opposite order.


----------



## Spudd

Ontario school outbreaks as of today:

*Schools with 7+ active cases:* ÉÉC Saint-René-Goupil (19) (Guelph), Viscount Alexander Public School (18) (Cornwall), École élémentaire catholique Montfort (15) (Ottawa), King George Junior Public School (12) (Toronto), Tapleytown Public School (11) (Hamilton), Queen Elizabeth Public School (9) (Ottawa), Monsignor Leo Cleary Catholic Elementary School (8) (Clarington), St Lawrence Secondary School (8) (Cornwall), Derry West Village Public School (7) (Mississauga), École élémentaire catholique La Vérendrye (7) (Ottawa), ÉSC Père-Philippe-Lamarche (7) (Toronto), Glendale Secondary School (7) (Hamilton), Bellmoore Public School (7) (Hamilton), Our Lady of Mount Carmel Elementary School (7) (Ottawa), St Joseph's High School (7) (Windsor), Princess Elizabeth Public School (7) (Welland) 






Schools COVID-19 data - Ontario Data Catalogue


Effective June 15, 2022, board and school staff will not be expected to report student/staff absences and closures in the Absence Reporting Tool. The ministry will no longer report absence rates...




data.ontario.ca


----------



## sags

I asked a nurse who works with covid patients why so many nurses and healthcare workers aren't vaccinated.

It appears that despite their education, training and experience they are also subject to fake information, rumors, and fear of the unknown.

Why not......fears of abnormal babies in the future, fear of heart inflammation, fear of genetic modifications, fear in general.

They often quote past failures of drugs and treatments......for birth control, opioids, and all those ads we see from lawyers suing the drug companies.

Reasonable concerns no doubt, but compared to severe covid......I don't think it is wise.

However they counter with.......most people don't get severe symptoms.

I don't know about that. *Do unvaccinated people generally only have slight symptoms ?*


----------



## damian13ster

Yes, they do, generally. Hospitalizations are at below 5%, which indicates that over 95% have slight or no symptoms
And heart inflammation is not fake news. Same with lung inflammation.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Most men
> 1. Do whatever it takes to get laid.
> 2. Don't argue with mom about parenting.
> 
> Or maybe it's the opposite order.


Maybe this will help convince them….









Coronavirus Lingers in Penis and Could Cause Impotence


Coronavirus infection is already known to damage blood vessels, and vessels that supply blood to the penis appear to be no exception.




www.webmd.com


----------



## Money172375

I know a retired rocket scientist who thinks Covid is fake. Next time I see him, I’m going to ask about the moon landings.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I asked a nurse who works with covid patients why so many nurses and healthcare workers aren't vaccinated.
> 
> It appears that despite their education, training and experience they are also subject to fake information, rumors, and fear of the unknown.
> 
> Why not......fears of abnormal babies in the future, fear of heart inflammation, fear of genetic modifications, fear in general.


Of course.
Also don't forget that the government approved AZ, which was apparently so dangerous they pulled it from use after a few months.
And of course AZ victims, statistically middle aged women.

Middle aged women, lots of healthcare workers and parents to school aged kids.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Yes, they do, generally. Hospitalizations are at below 5%, which indicates that over 95% have slight or no symptoms
> And heart inflammation is not fake news. Same with lung inflammation.


Same with death due to blood clots, and serious anaphylactic reactions, and the occasional death.


----------



## zinfit

bgc_fan said:


> It looks like having public measures in place in addition to vaccination can help with reducing the covid infection rate, and subsequent reduction in hospitalization.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario’s COVID-19 rates lower than expected due to public health measures: experts
> 
> 
> Ontario is reporting 653 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.saultstar.com


I guess Ford is doing better then expected


----------



## bgc_fan

zinfit said:


> I guess Ford is doing better then expected


Yup, especially when he disappeared for the summer and let the medical advisors take over.


----------



## bgc_fan

Looks like Pfizer has developed an early treatment drug. Of course, if you don't like it, feel free to take ivermectin or hydroxychloroquinone. 









Pfizer is testing a pill to ward off COVID-19


Researchers think the oral antiviral therapy will work better against the virus when used with an HIV drug.




www.cbsnews.com





At least there's some research to explain the mechanism.



https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/22/17/9124/pdf


----------



## sags

A Canadian study that was often used to support the claim of heart inflammation from vaccines, has been rescinded by the authors due serious miscalculations to the math used to compile the results. It makes me wonder if heart inflammation created by vaccines was ever a valid concern.

One of the problems with the covid pandemic is hastily developed studies and reports that surfaced from all over the world, often containing conflicting results and totally confusing the public. At times, even the public authorities were led in different directions from study results.

And then there were the fake or unqualified "doctors" who were posting information on the internet to gain popularity and revenue through viewer clicks.

At the end of the day........the people I paid most attention to, the physicians dealing with the ICU covid patients were consistently proven accurate.


----------



## sags

damian13ster said:


> Yes, they do, generally. Hospitalizations are at below 5%, which indicates that over 95% have slight or no symptoms
> And heart inflammation is not fake news. Same with lung inflammation.


Any evidence for the 5% number ?

It seems to me that the % of serious symptoms appears a lot higher among un-vaccinated people.

They are filling up ICU units.


----------



## bgc_fan

sags said:


> A Canadian study that was often used to support the claim of heart inflammation from vaccines, has been rescinded by the authors due serious miscalculations to the math used to compile the results. It makes me wonder if heart inflammation created by vaccines was ever a valid concern.


In fairness, it was a recent study and they forgot to double check their numbers before peer review. It would likely have been picked up upon peer review, but now a days people want to push their papers onto pre-publishing sites. It was pretty bad, off by 25x... basing on 32k instead of 833k people vaccinated.


----------



## newfoundlander61

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/portpass-privacy-breach-1.6191749



Print a smaller size copy of your receipts, and get it laminated. I am not planning on using any app for this stuff.


----------



## ian

Alberta currently has the lowest percentage of people vaccinated in Canada. We also have some of Canada laxest covid restrictions.

The result... Our covid death rate in Alberta is 3 TIMES the Canadian average. 



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/albertans-dying-from-covid-19-at-more-than-three-times-the-average-canadian-rate-1.6192135


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> ...
> 
> And then there were the fake or unqualified "doctors" who were posting information on the internet to gain popularity and revenue through viewer clicks.
> 
> At the end of the day........the people I paid most attention to, the physicians dealing with the ICU covid patients were consistently proven accurate.


 ... and then there're "real", "medically licensed" doctors like this guy (in Ontario apparently),

Restrictions imposed on doctor accused of spreading COVID misinformation

who wants to be anti-pandemic for his main reason,



> “Never have I been more proud of myself than the day I decided to take a stand against our country's *medical tyranny*,” he wrote Tuesday morning.


 ... so my question to him, why does he want to be a medical doctor since his view of the "establishment that licensed him" practices tyranny?

Also, the above comment sure sounds alot like some anonymous bod(ies) on this forum.

And his other statement: 


> “Providing patients and the public access to treatments for COVID-19 and vaccine injuries and protecting them from medical coercion is not something I will regret.”


 ... does this mean he's able to do seperate billings ... from the tyrannical systems of OHIP?



> ... The college alleges that between August 2020 and this month, Phillips engaged in disgraceful, dishonourable or unprofessional conduct in his communications regarding the pandemic, including on social media.


 ... wow. Spending more time on social media refuting the pandemic is more important than healing/saving lives. This guy really got his priorities ^v<>@d up!!!!


----------



## Mukhang pera




----------



## Beaver101

newfoundlander61 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/portpass-privacy-breach-1.6191749
> 
> 
> 
> Print a smaller size copy of your receipts, and get it laminated. I am not planning on using any app for this stuff.


 ... I don't think I'm going to bother printing a set (2nd) of receipts even, let alone use the first set that they gave me right after the jabs. I'm not desperate for any of those non-essential activities that require proof.


----------



## sags

We were holding our own here, and then the students decided to party, cause damage, end up in the emergency department with serious injuries and get arrested by police.

I think the schools should start refunding the tuitions and tell the students to go somewhere else. They need to start getting tough on all this nonsense.

The people in the city are getting fed up with it. Now we are facing a possible big outbreak of covid in a couple of weeks.

Hope not.....but the chances are high.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Solutions depend on where the party was held. On campus, then it's the university's responsibility (ie. plans should have already been in place) on how to deal with the nonsense regardless of Covid's presence.

On private rental property, then it's the party's organizer + landlord. Police + bylaw charges on both parties should straighten them out.


----------



## OptsyEagle

We need to get tough on the people age 50 or older who have not vaccinated yet. If we can get that one group to vaccinate the danger from these "people enjoying their life" events diminishes greatly.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Solutions depend on where the party was held. On campus, then it's the university's responsibility (ie. plans should have already been in place) on how to deal with the nonsense regardless of Covid's presence.
> 
> On private rental property, then it's the party's organizer + landlord. Police + bylaw charges on both parties should straighten them out.


Since the landlord is legally prohibited from controlling the tenants behavior, how do you justify holding them liable?

The housing situation keeps getting worse, and part of it is people like you wanting landlords to keep taking responsibility.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> We need to get tough on the people age 50 or older who have not vaccinated yet. If we can get that one group to vaccinate the danger from these "people enjoying their life" events diminishes greatly.


We will "get tough", 2-3% of them will die to COVID.

Say what you want, but the death penalty for stupid is one of the few things they haven't been able to ban yet.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Since the landlord is legally prohibited from controlling the tenants behavior, how do you justify holding them liable?
> 
> The housing situation keeps getting worse, and part of it is people like you wanting landlords to keep taking responsibility.


^ Simple question & answer for you: Do you like to live next to Animal House?

Add: And it's people like you who encourages these animals to use their RESP monies wisely to support scum landlords in disguise on justifying that the housing situation getting worst. 

"Responsible" landlords do not want to rent to these animals.


----------



## sags

The people who get covid and die, may not be the students. It could someone they come into contact with in the days following.

Students live all over the city, take public transit, shop at grocery stores........and clog up our hospital emergency rooms.

Post secondary education isn't a right, so send them home.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Doesn't the university have a vaccine mandate in the first place? If so, then the Covid risk (spread, ICU, etc.) should be tempered.

As for the private rental, that's a whole different story. For one, the Animal House will be sharing amongst themselves.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Any evidence for the 5% number ?
> 
> It seems to me that the % of serious symptoms appears a lot higher among un-vaccinated people.
> 
> They are filling up ICU units.











Public vastly overestimates risk of hospitalization from COVID-19: Study


The public overestimates the likelihood a person with COVID-19 would have to be hospitalized by 10 times the actual number, a study shows.




www.washingtonexaminer.com













Risk of hospital admission with coronavirus disease 2019 in healthcare workers and their households: nationwide linkage cohort study


Objective To assess the risk of hospital admission for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) among patient facing and non-patient facing healthcare workers and their household members. Design Nationwide linkage cohort study. Setting Scotland, UK, 1 March to 6 June 2020. Participants Healthcare...




www.bmj.com














41% of Democrats believe you have over 50% chance of hospitalizations 😂😂


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> Public vastly overestimates risk of hospitalization from COVID-19: Study
> 
> 
> The public overestimates the likelihood a person with COVID-19 would have to be hospitalized by 10 times the actual number, a study shows.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.washingtonexaminer.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Risk of hospital admission with coronavirus disease 2019 in healthcare workers and their households: nationwide linkage cohort study
> 
> 
> Objective To assess the risk of hospital admission for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) among patient facing and non-patient facing healthcare workers and their household members. Design Nationwide linkage cohort study. Setting Scotland, UK, 1 March to 6 June 2020. Participants Healthcare...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bmj.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 22210
> 
> 
> 
> 41% of Democrats believe you have over 50% chance of hospitalizations 😂😂


Too bad that's old news, given that delta is about twice as likely to hospitalize.

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study]

Of course with higher amounts of vaccinated population, overall that should decrease, but still an issue with unvaccinated.


----------



## damian13ster

So multiply that number by 2.....
The fact is that over 91% of media reports are fear-mongering and it works. Over 75% of population vastly overestimates risk, and over 40% of Democrats think probability of hospitalization is over 50%. And that's after 20 months of data clearly showing otherwise


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> We will "get tough", 2-3% of them will die to COVID.
> 
> Say what you want, but the death penalty for stupid is one of the few things they haven't been able to ban yet.


That does not help us because they tend to always swing by our hospitals, for too long of visit, before they punch out. 

What I am saying, is you can implement child vaccines. You can put masks on everyone going to church. You can work from home. You can do whatever you want but until our citizens, age 50 or older are vaccinated, we are all stuck in this pandemic stalemate. Once they vaccinate we can start to move on.

We need to get that message out. We need this specific group to understand that until they vaccinate nothing changes for anyone. We are all just waiting. We need all their friends and family to understand that until these people vaccinate our freedoms, our schools and our businesses, will always be in jeopardy.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> So multiply that number by 2.....
> The fact is that over 91% of media reports are fear-mongering and it works. Over 75% of population vastly overestimates risk, and over 40% of Democrats think probability of hospitalization is over 50%. And that's after 20 months of data clearly showing otherwise


And that over estimate of risk is what is driving democrats to vaccinate and believe in the higher effectiveness of the vaccine.








U.S. Adults' Estimates of COVID-19 Hospitalization Risk


Americans' estimates of both the risk of hospitalization due to COVID-19 and the efficacy of the vaccine for the disease vary widely by their political affiliation and vaccination status.




news.gallup.com


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> We need to get that message out. We need this specific group to understand that until they vaccinate nothing changes for anyone. We are all just waiting. We need all their friends and family to understand that until these people vaccinate our freedoms, our schools and our businesses, will always be in jeopardy.


I'm sorry, the message is out there and has been for the past year since vaccines came into the picture. They just aren't buying it and there is little that will change their minds. The only stick that is left is the vaccine passports. We know there was an uptick in first doses when these were announced, but right now, pretty much all the low-hanging fruit has been picked and all we have left are the people who aren't going to vaccinate no matter what is said.

I recall a news interview with a doctor who said that despite all their efforts to treat some patients, they still believed that they didn't have covid and that the doctors are the ones that gave it to them. With people like that, I couldn't imagine being a health care worker.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> I'm sorry, the message is out there and has been for the past year since vaccines came into the picture. They just aren't buying it and there is little that will change their minds. The only stick that is left is the vaccine passports. We know there was an uptick in first doses when these were announced, but right now, pretty much all the low-hanging fruit has been picked and all we have left are the people who aren't going to vaccinate no matter what is said.
> 
> I recall a news interview with a doctor who said that despite all their efforts to treat some patients, they still believed that they didn't have covid and that the doctors are the ones that gave it to them. With people like that, I couldn't imagine being a health care worker.


I disagree. The message is out that everyone should vaccinate and now everyone is waiting for others to do something about it. We need to focus that message where it is imperative. Most people do not understand what is at stake.

A simple message. You show Canadians the ICU numbers from Alberta and Saskatchewan that are currently causing their problems. You subtract out the unvaccinated people, age 50 or older and ask a simple question. What do we have without that group in the hospitals and ICUs. We have two provinces continuing to move forward, away from this pandemic. But, because of this specific group of citizens, Alberta and Saskatchewan are now currently back in full covid retreat.

Canadians are not getting that message. The unvaccinated need to hear it and just as importantly, their friends and family need to know who precisely is to blame. *It is not Kenney or Moe. It is unvaccinated citizens, age 50 or older currently causing our problems.* Everyone needs to know this. So far they have been getting the wrong message. We need to correct that and and we need to do it now.


----------



## Mukhang pera

OptsyEagle said:


> I disagree. The message is out that everyone should vaccinate and now everyone is waiting for others to do something about it. We need to focus that message where it is imperative. Most people do not understand what is at stake.
> ...


I agree with bgc. By now, the anti-vaxxers are hardened in their position. The more anyone tries to push them, the more they push back. I know one 55-year-old who just this past week took a course so he can buy a gun, for the first time in his life. Why? Because he believes that government might try to round up the unvaccinated and force them to be vaccinated or sent to camps for the unvaccinated. He intends to kill anyone who tries to force him to do anything. He has not said the words that he will kill. But that's his plain message. He is arming himself to stand ready to fight for his belief. Sounds a bit like he's talking of being prepared to kill. Is he a nut case? Sure. Just typical of the anti-tax crowd. Do you think any of them will listen to reason?


----------



## OptsyEagle

We are not going to get them all to vaccinate. I know that, but I suspect we can reduce the number by at least half if we can get people to stop catering to them and start talking to them properly. This has nothing to do with their beef with vaccination. It has to do with everyone, including them, being able to move forward. They have not got that message, nor have their friends and family.

After the message goes out, we need to apply more pressure. More vaccine passport restrictions. No hair salons. No church. All curbside pickup including liquor and beer stores. Etc. Let them know it won't stop, because it can't stop. It's not our fault it is theirs.

As for the guy with the gun. That's fine. We knew we had guys like that in our society. It is why we have a police force. Vaccination is not his problem. I am sure his problem is much deeper then that.

Anyway, I have pointed out the solution. Everything else is just a delay, at least until this specific group gets infected.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> I disagree. The message is out that everyone should vaccinate and now everyone is waiting for others to do something about it. We need to focus that message where it is imperative. Most people do not understand what is at stake.
> 
> A simple message. You show Canadians the ICU numbers from Alberta and Saskatchewan that are currently causing their problems. You subtract out the unvaccinated people, age 50 or older and ask a simple question. What do we have without that group in the hospitals and ICUs. We have two provinces continuing to move forward, away from this pandemic. But, because of this specific group of citizens, Alberta and Saskatchewan are now currently back in full covid retreat.
> 
> Canadians are not getting that message. The unvaccinated need to hear it and just as importantly, their friends and family need to know who precisely is to blame. *It is not Kenney or Moe. It is unvaccinated citizens, age 50 or older currently causing our problems.* Everyone needs to know this. So far they have been getting the wrong message. We need to correct that and and we need to do it now.


Quite frankly, they don't care. That is the issue. A lot just don't trust the government and official news sources so no matter how many facts and figures you provide, they're just going to ignore it and stubbornly stick to their position. This isn't new, we've seen this in the US with Trump. It's not about facts, it's about emotions. At this point they're so dug into their position it is part of their personality and being, so they CAN'T psychologically change. 

You don't think they see the same numbers we do and think there is an issue? Just look at this forum, there are people defending Alberta's response and think that the whole health care crisis is made up. Others think that the AHS is making up the situation just to make Kenney look bad. That's how out of touch people are. You can't reason with these people because their viewpoints are literally part of their personality. It's all emotional, not based on rational thought.

There are some that have legitimate concerns about safety, but those are the few that could and probably are convinced to vaccinate, at this point. However, there's probably a 10-15% core that aren't going to change their position.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> And that over estimate of risk is what is driving democrats to vaccinate and believe in the higher effectiveness of the vaccine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Adults' Estimates of COVID-19 Hospitalization Risk
> 
> 
> Americans' estimates of both the risk of hospitalization due to COVID-19 and the efficacy of the vaccine for the disease vary widely by their political affiliation and vaccination status.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.gallup.com


Yeah, it also spreads fear, anxiety, and shows how people ignore science.
Here is actual science:


https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#severe-outcomes


99.99% survival rate for those under 50.
99.1% survival rate for entire population
4.3% hospitalization rate for entire population
1.7% hospitalization rate for those under 50

Of course that is under assumption that all cases were actually discovered, which we know is not the case so the denominator should be higher (don't know by what factor so not going to apply any corrections to ACTUAL DATA)

Facts are important.
And those facts still show that vaccination is beneficial.
I will repeat though - facts are important.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Quite frankly, they don't care. That is the issue. A lot just don't trust the government and official news sources so no matter how many facts and figures you provide, they're just going to ignore it and stubbornly stick to their position.


The facts and figures are probably more for their friends and family.

Right now those people are just saying "well Joe has always been a little stubborn" or some other dismissive comment. But they are still inviting Joe to their social gatherings, because he is a close friend or part of the family. When they start understanding that it is NOT Jason Kenney that caused Alberta hospitals to start flying people halfway across the country for medical care and jeopardize our hospitals for everyone. It is people like Joe that caused this.

We need those social gatherings to start to get just a little colder for Joe. A little more annoying. Listen I have met the Joe's of this world. They are not the brightest knives in the drawer, but everyone of them that eventually gets vaccinated, for whatever reason we or they come up with, gets us closer to ending this pandemic. And every time we get distracted by something else, Joe escapes the scrutiny he so desperately deserves.

We need to start shining bright lights on these people. 5 weeks ago in Ontario, there were over 700,000 unvaccinated people older then 49. Last week there were 501,000 left. Today we have around 478,000. That is a pretty small number of people holding us all hostage and terrifying our businesses because they don't know what restriction these people will cause next. How many people do we let Joe hurt before we start sending a little more of the pain back?


----------



## OptsyEagle

It is a very simple message:

"If you want to participate in society, you have to participate all the way. You cannot have everything going just in your own direction. Sometimes you will be asked to help out. This is one of those times. If you are age 50 or older, we need you vaccinate".


----------



## zinfit

OptsyEagle said:


> I disagree. The message is out that everyone should vaccinate and now everyone is waiting for others to do something about it. We need to focus that message where it is imperative. Most people do not understand what is at stake.
> 
> A simple message. You show Canadians the ICU numbers from Alberta and Saskatchewan that are currently causing their problems. You subtract out the unvaccinated people, age 50 or older and ask a simple question. What do we have without that group in the hospitals and ICUs. We have two provinces continuing to move forward, away from this pandemic. But, because of this specific group of citizens, Alberta and Saskatchewan are now currently back in full covid retreat.
> 
> Canadians are not getting that message. The unvaccinated need to hear it and just as importantly, their friends and family need to know who precisely is to blame. *It is not Kenney or Moe. It is unvaccinated citizens, age 50 or older currently causing our problems.* Everyone needs to know this. So far they have been getting the wrong message. We need to correct that and and we need to do it now.


I agree. I do note that the vaccination rates did jump once they initiated vaccine passports. I don't know if this has significantly increased the number of people fully vaccinated.


----------



## Beaver101

duplicate deleted


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> It is a very simple message:
> 
> "If you want to participate in society, you have to participate all the way. You cannot have everything going just in your own direction. Sometimes you will be asked to help out. This is one of those times. If you are age 50 or older, we need you vaccinate".


 ... wrong audience here to send the message to. Send the message to the crowds protesting in front of the hospitals. And no criteria to be 50 and older to qualify, just above kindergarten age.


----------



## OptsyEagle

zinfit said:


> I agree. I do note that the vaccination rates did jump once they initiated vaccine passports. I don't know if this has significantly increased the number of people fully vaccinated.


In post #6,577 I listed the trajectory of vaccinations for the critical age group in Ontario. I have no idea how they look in other provinces. I imagine Alberta and Saskatchewan must have a higher percentage of their population unvaccinated in this age group, but perhaps they are reducing it quicker? I don't know. One thing that could be keeping Ontario behind in vaccination is the fact that our hospitals are not talking about collapsing and triaging, but I am not sure if that would sway much anyway.

I have noted in the numbers that the first 4 weeks after the announcement of vaccination passports that we moved quite a few, off the list, right away. I suspect most of those were probably just the procrastinators, so to speak. No real objection but just wanted to keep waiting and thinking. The rest are going to be more difficult and you can see the numbers slowing down. That is why I suggest a new message. More of a request for help. Give that message a little time to sink in and then "lower the boom" on new restrictions.

I figure if we can get the Ontario numbers down to around 200,000 we can probably be in reasonably good shape. I suspect we will be there by Spring, with either vaccination or infection, being the reason. I just think that if Ontario gets 278,000 infections for people age 50 or older this fall/winter, our hospitals will be swamped...and are funeral homes. Let's just ask them politely, but directly, and see if they will help us out.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Beaver101 said:


> ... wrong audience here to send the message to. Send the message to the crowds protesting in front of the hospitals. And no criteria to be 50 and older to qualify, just above kindergarten age.


I don't think insulting them anymore is going to move the dial. We have all tried that, myself included and the results of that would be in by now.

As for the age cut off, that is a difficult part of the message. It can be done. Ask for everyone to be vaccinated but then focus directly to this older group. That is where the problem is. To direct it in other directions (younger age groups) simply is not true. We would like all ages to vaccinate but we NEED people over age 50 to vaccinate. That is not something where a no answer is acceptable or can be worked around in any other way. They need to know this, but we do need to explain it and simply ask them to help their country out.

Is it really too much to ask of one of our citizens?


----------



## damian13ster

Why not just send the RCMP, put the people in a headlock and apply the vaccine? - four weeks and problem solved


----------



## Plugging Along

Alberta is a that point where dr's will need triage patients on who gets care.


OptsyEagle said:


> In post #6,577 I listed the trajectory of vaccinations for the critical age group in Ontario. I have no idea how they look in other provinces. I imagine Alberta and Saskatchewan must have a higher percentage of their population unvaccinated in this age group, but perhaps they are reducing it quicker? I don't know. One thing that could be keeping Ontario behind in vaccination is the fact that our hospitals are not talking about collapsing and triaging, but I am not sure if that would sway much anyway.
> 
> I have noted in the numbers that the first 4 weeks after the announcement of vaccination passports that we moved quite a few, off the list, right away. I suspect most of those were probably just the procrastinators, so to speak. No real objection but just wanted to keep waiting and thinking. The rest are going to be more difficult and you can see the numbers slowing down. That is why I suggest a new message. More of a request for help. Give that message a little time to sink in and then "lower the boom" on new restrictions.
> 
> I figure if we can get the Ontario numbers down to around 200,000 we can probably be in reasonably good shape. I suspect we will be there by Spring, with either vaccination or infection, being the reason. I just think that if Ontario gets 278,000 infections for people age 50 or older this fall/winter, our hospitals will be swamped...and are funeral homes. Let's just ask them politely, but directly, and see if they will help us out.


Since the vaccines passports, the rate has increased overall about 5%. The provincial announcement of the passports was the worst I have ever seen. They made all these restrictions and then said if the business wants to be exempt from the restriction, they could ask for vaccination certificates, essentially leaving it up to the business to determine what they should do. Chicken $hit and no leadership from Kenny again. People were then getting mad at the businesses for trying to implement the passport. It took the municipality to implement a by law for the passports so all businesses where on the same playing field. An example is the province says kids sports can still go on, so some leagues were making it optional. It was only when the City said to go and play at any City owned facility, all 12+ need to vaccinated or PCR test, same for spectators. So its only now that some parents are getting their kids vaccinated so their kids can play the sports they love. This is also starting to get the parents in the 40+. 

We need to target each group differently. Then for those idiots that just won't listen, then I would be okay if they change the triage into hospitals to include your vaccination status. They would still get care, however, when we get to the point that doctors have to triage who gets treatment, then one of the criteria should be if you are vaccinated or not. If not, then you can get behind those that are, but maybe before those was a broken bone.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> I don't think insulting them anymore is going to move the dial. We have all tried that, myself included and the results of that would be in by now.


 ... you're not serious with that response? Exactly how are you helping move that dial? Paying them don't help and neither does coddling. Are you suggesting we go and kiss them? Do you think they're going to get vaccinated with your messages here? And for them to protest in front of the hospitals because they don't wanna to (WAAH, WAAH, WAAH!!!!) get jabbed works better than an insult?



> As for the age cut off, that is a difficult part of the message. It can be done. Ask for everyone to be vaccinated but then focus directly to this older group. That is where the problem is. To direct it in other directions (younger age groups) simply is not true. We would like all ages to vaccinate but we NEED people over age 50 to vaccinate. That is not something where a no answer is acceptable or can be worked around in any other way. They need to know this, but we do need to explain it and simply ask them to help their country out.
> 
> Is it really too much to ask of one of our citizens?


 ... apparently, it's too much you're asking for these hard-asses.

And your messages here are simply 

I'm probably repeating what bgc have said earlier about these hard-asses, only he said it so much nicer


----------



## OptsyEagle

Beaver101 said:


> ... you're not serious with that response? Exactly how are you helping move that dial? Paying them don't help and neither does coddling. Are you suggesting we go and kiss them? Do you think they're going to get vaccinated with your messages here? And for them to protest in front of the hospitals because they don't wanna to (WAAH, WAAH, WAAH!!!!) get jabbed works better than an insult?
> 
> ... apparently, it's too much you're asking for these hard-asses.
> 
> And your messages here are simply
> 
> I'm probably repeating what bgc have said earlier about these hard-asses, only he said it so much nicer


Beaver, you really are a lost cause. You miss just about everything in my posts. I really wish you would stop reading them, or at least stop responding to them.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Plugging Along said:


> Alberta is a that point where dr's will need triage patients on who gets care.
> 
> 
> Since the vaccines passports, the rate has increased overall about 5%. The provincial announcement of the passports was the worst I have ever seen. They made all these restrictions and then said if the business wants to be exempt from the restriction, they could ask for vaccination certificates, essentially leaving it up to the business to determine what they should do. Chicken $hit and no leadership from Kenny again. People were then getting mad at the businesses for trying to implement the passport. It took the municipality to implement a by law for the passports so all businesses where on the same playing field. An example is the province says kids sports can still go on, so some leagues were making it optional. It was only when the City said to go and play at any City owned facility, all 12+ need to vaccinated or PCR test, same for spectators. So its only now that some parents are getting their kids vaccinated so their kids can play the sports they love. This is also starting to get the parents in the 40+.
> 
> We need to target each group differently. Then for those idiots that just won't listen, then I would be okay if they change the triage into hospitals to include your vaccination status. They would still get care, however, when we get to the point that doctors have to triage who gets treatment, then one of the criteria should be if you are vaccinated or not. If not, then you can get behind those that are, but maybe before those was a broken bone.


I have no doubt that Kenney could have done better. Even Ford sent the wrong message on vaccine passports when first asked about implementing them. He is famous for his "not wanting a divided society" speech. It was obvious vaccine passports were going to come about. In a vaccine divided society they could not be avoided. It is more then a tad annoying that they could not see what was so obvious months ago, to anyone analyzing the current situation.

That said, if you take Alberta's current condition and subtract all the people in their ICUs that are unvaccinated and age 50 or older, you are left with a fully functioning healthcare system and a province moving out of pandemic mode. The fact that Kenney sent his province into the abyss first will not matter so much if all the other provinces end in the same place. within the next few months. I can't say for sure they will, but without this important age group vaccinated, every healthcare system in Canada is in jeopardy.


----------



## sags

Some places are going door to door with vaccinations now. They should have been doing that a long time ago.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> Beaver, you really are a lost cause. You miss just about everything in my posts. I really wish you would stop reading them, or at least stop responding to them.


 ... I'm a lost cause and yourself is ? Napolean? How is that I missed everything in your posts when 1. you have a comprehension problem to begin with, and 2. your so-called "remedies" are wishy-washy at best. You do realize that we're 1.8 years into a pandemic and we already have the choice for the jabs for what now ... 8 months? And you want to "move the dial" with "re-education" ... only 50 year olds and above. What are you? Their father, or best uncle? That would be the "insult". 

At this point, there's no need to "convince" these hard-asses, your attempt is the lost cause. 

As said, if you want a nicer version of what I'm saying, re-read bgc's earlier (multiple) posts that come with "full explanations".


----------



## sags

They save $50,000 per person on everybody who doesn't get hospitalized from Covid.

The least they could do is give everyone vaccinated a new set of snow tires.

I mean..........come on. We got places to go and people to see.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> They save $50,000 per person on everybody who doesn't get hospitalized from Covid.
> 
> The least they could do is give everyone vaccinated a new set of snow tires.
> 
> I mean..........come on. We got places to go and people to see.


 ... the hard-*** un-vaccinateds don't care if you got places to go and see. So do they when lying on their deathbeds with Covid - you know the free Twilight Zone surreal movie. 

I mean look at MP's post - a picture with a thousand words unsaid and yet explained.



Mukhang pera said:


> View attachment 22209


and then you have a moronic doc (from Ontario, aghast!) that's anti-vax from my post #6555. WTF.


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> Why not just send the RCMP, put the people in a headlock and apply the vaccine? - four weeks and problem solved


good idea


----------



## zinfit

I have been looking at the Sunbelt cases over the past 2 months. I am a winter Texan so I was curious. Florida is interesting. Around the end of August they were reporting averages around 26,000 and they are down closet 5000 per day. So the trend is positive. Texas is a little slower but they are moving in the right direction. I hoping that Alberta and SK will turn the corner and start moving in that direction. Even though both are below the Canadian average for vaccinations they much higher then Florida. Sometimes it is good to look for the positives.


----------



## Money172375

What do you think is riskier?

indoors, masked, confirmed vaxxed, playing cards with 8 people.

outdoor bbq, no masks, majority vaxxed (but no proof) With 100 people. Probably interact with 20-30.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> What do you think is riskier?
> 
> indoors, masked, confirmed vaxxed, playing cards with 8 people.
> 
> outdoor bbq, no masks, majority vaxxed (but no proof) With 100 people. Probably interact with 20-30.


 ... the second scenario because those 20 to 30 people with unproven vax status have their mouths wide open, transmitting their breaths to you.

From a probability perspective:
With scenario 1, even no one has a mask on, your probability of inhaling someone's else breath is 12.5% versus scenario 2 big party, your chances just got better at 20% to 30%.


----------



## Money172375

Merck says experimental pill cuts worst effects of COVID-19


In a potential leap forward in the global fight against the pandemic, drugmaker Merck said Friday that its experimental pill for people sick with COVID-19 reduced hospitalizations and deaths by half.




www.ctvnews.ca





perhaps an effective treatment will do more than vaccines to end this….


----------



## zinfit

Money172375 said:


> Merck says experimental pill cuts worst effects of COVID-19
> 
> 
> In a potential leap forward in the global fight against the pandemic, drugmaker Merck said Friday that its experimental pill for people sick with COVID-19 reduced hospitalizations and deaths by half.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> perhaps an effective treatment will do more than vaccines to end this….


Very interesting. Wonder how the anti vaxxers would view this? Many are fans of the anti-worn pill. It is also manufactured by Merck.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> Very interesting. Wonder how the anti vaxxers would view this? Many are fans of the anti-worn pill. It is also manufactured by Merck.


 .. I bet with the same response as "it's my right to be anti-vax but not anti-anti-wormer", just as it's my right to smoke weeds or shoot up the alley."


----------



## Plugging Along

Money172375 said:


> What do you think is riskier?
> 
> indoors, masked, confirmed vaxxed, playing cards with 8 people.
> 
> outdoor bbq, no masks, majority vaxxed (but no proof) With 100 people. Probably interact with 20-30.


Depends. 

Indoors with 8 people playing around the table at the whole time, is more riskier than being outside in a big group, but having more of an ability to space. If you were crammed into the same space outdoors, then the number of people would be much bigger in space. 

I personally find I am more comfortable being outdoors with a large group of people, even eating, that I can move away from. I also tend to be near people I KNOW are fully vaccinated indoors or outdoors.

microcovid.org is a very interesting site to test out these risk factors.


----------



## zinfit

Plugging Along said:


> Depends.
> 
> Indoors with 8 people playing around the table at the whole time, is more riskier than being outside in a big group, but having more of an ability to space. If you were crammed into the same space outdoors, then the number of people would be much bigger in space.
> 
> I personally find I am more comfortable being outdoors with a large group of people, even eating, that I can move away from. I also tend to be near people I KNOW are fully vaccinated indoors or outdoors.
> 
> microcovid.org is a very interesting site to test out these risk factors.


MIT says transmission is very rare outdoors. They estimate the risk at 1% compared to indoors . The Chinese research seems to support that estimate.


----------



## bgc_fan

damian13ster said:


> Yeah, it also spreads fear, anxiety, and shows how people ignore science.
> Here is actual science:
> 
> 
> https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#severe-outcomes
> 
> 
> 99.99% survival rate for those under 50.
> 99.1% survival rate for entire population
> 4.3% hospitalization rate for entire population
> 1.7% hospitalization rate for those under 50
> 
> Of course that is under assumption that all cases were actually discovered, which we know is not the case so the denominator should be higher (don't know by what factor so not going to apply any corrections to ACTUAL DATA)
> 
> Facts are important.
> And those facts still show that vaccination is beneficial.
> I will repeat though - facts are important.


So, people are bad with stats. For example, you are saying there is a 0.9% of death overall. Obviously it all depends on your age category. But that's the exact issue with the concern about myocarditis. Basically there's a 0.004% chance of an averse reaction, yet people point to that as an excuse not to get vaccinated.
OTOH, they'll willingly put down $5 for the 1 in 33,294,800 of winning the lotto max.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> It is a very simple message:
> 
> "If you want to participate in society, you have to participate all the way. You cannot have everything going just in your own direction. Sometimes you will be asked to help out. This is one of those times. If you are age 50 or older, we need you vaccinate".


Not going to work for many of the holdouts. You know the type, the ones saying that they are being treated like Jews by the Nazis during WWII. Or my body my choice, or my freedoms. Just look at the vaccination passport. Yes, some begrudgingly got vaccinated, but there are still a significant minority who are causing problems to businesses who try to implement.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Not going to work for many of the holdouts. You know the type, the ones saying that they are being treated like Jews by the Nazis during WWII. Or my body my choice, or my freedoms. Just look at the vaccination passport. Yes, some begrudgingly got vaccinated, but there are still a significant minority who are causing problems to businesses who try to implement.


Nothing is going to work for all of them. I am just trying to move the dial on as many as possible. IMO no one has presented the right message. There is way more to decide about with vaccination then personal freedoms and everyone deciding for themselves. These people think that they should have the right to decide one way or the other and if that decision massively effects everyone else, oh well, not their problem. 

Well it is there problem. The rest of us have decisions we get to make after they make theirs. That part of the process needs to be explained to these people. Do we let them participate in our society or not. That is our decision not theirs. They need to understand that and make their own decisions accordingly.

So. Do they want to be part of our society and join in with the benefits and obligations that goes with that, or not?


----------



## Beaver101

^ They want the cake and the icing at the same time AND no sacrifices. 

Can you not hear their "Screw You" which is loud and clear at their protests? That's what I'm hearing. If they don't want to get vaccinated and die in a corner somewhere, then by all means. But they don't want to do that. They want to tell you off first before cluttering the ICUs.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> So. Do they want to be part of our society and join in with the benefits and obligations that goes with that, or not?


The answer is no, so I don't understand how you keep saying the message is not getting out.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> The answer is no, so I don't understand how you keep saying the message is not getting out.


You can't get an answer to a question that has never been asked. The no you refer to was to the question about whether they wanted to vaccinate. At best, the actual question was asked indirectly with vaccine passports, but since they don't understand the total question, because it was never asked, they are confused at our answer to the part that we are being asked. That is why I keep saying it. The question has never been asked properly...and I think if they did, some might get a better idea of how their arguments are really going to fall on deaf ears, and hopefully decide to vaccinate.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> You can't get an answer to a question that has never been asked. The no you refer to was to the question about whether they wanted to vaccinate. At best, the actual question was asked indirectly with vaccine passports, but since they don't understand the total question, because it was never asked, they are confused at our answer to the part that we are being asked. That is why I keep saying it. The question has never been asked properly...and I think if they did, some might get a better idea of how their arguments are really going to fall on deaf ears, and hopefully decide to vaccinate.


You're giving too much credit and too much excuse. You're saying that we didn't specifically and directly ask them to think of the greater good and vaccinate, so that excuses their selfish behaviour. Even at the beginning of the pandemic, when we talk about masking, it was primarily sold as a way to protect others because there wasn't actual scientific proof that it protected the wearers, and we still had lots of anti-maskers who basically said, they don't care: they don't want to wear masks because it inconveniences them, or they're not sick, so why wear them? Now with the vaccine passports, it's basically stating, you want life as normal, then get vaccinated. Instead the push back is "My freedoms, we're being persecuted for our choice to not get vaccinated". Then when you try pointing out the herd immunity, they just argue, "why do you care? You're vaccinated, you won't get sick." Don't think that there's an actual rational way to reason with them. As I've said before and there are a number of articles that emphasize the point, even if they get sick and hospitalized, they and their families still won't get vaccinated.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> You're giving too much credit and too much excuse. You're saying that we didn't specifically and directly ask them to think of the greater good and vaccinate, so that excuses their selfish behaviour. Even at the beginning of the pandemic, when we talk about masking, it was primarily sold as a way to protect others because there wasn't actual scientific proof that it protected the wearers, and we still had lots of anti-maskers who basically said, they don't care: they don't want to wear masks because it inconveniences them, or they're not sick, so why wear them? Now with the vaccine passports, it's basically stating, you want life as normal, then get vaccinated. Instead the push back is "My freedoms, we're being persecuted for our choice to not get vaccinated". Then when you try pointing out the herd immunity, they just argue, "why do you care? You're vaccinated, you won't get sick." Don't think that there's an actual rational way to reason with them. As I've said before and there are a number of articles that emphasize the point, even if they get sick and hospitalized, they and their families still won't get vaccinated.


Just forget it. I have explained my point too many times. If you want, just leave everything the way it is and see how many more people you get to vaccinate. Keep insulting them. Keep yelling at them. Keep correcting them. I couldn't care less. I was just trying to suggest a new approach.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Just forget it. I have explained my point too many times. If you want, just leave everything the way it is and see how many more people you get to vaccinate. Keep insulting them. Keep yelling at them. Keep correcting them. I couldn't care less. I was just trying to suggest a new approach.


The thing is you aren't suggesting anything new. Throughout the whole epidemic we've stressed the fact that we need to get a high percentage of vaccination to get herd immunity and bring things to normal. That's been the talking point for the whole time, and the message hasn't deviated. What you have are the holdouts who think/say, as long as the others get immunized, I don't have to.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> So, people are bad with stats. For example, you are saying there is a 0.9% of death overall. Obviously it all depends on your age category. But that's the exact issue with the concern about myocarditis. Basically there's a 0.004% chance of an averse reaction, yet people point to that as an excuse not to get vaccinated.
> OTOH, they'll willingly put down $5 for the 1 in 33,294,800 of winning the lotto max.


Exactly! The decisions should be based on factors such as age, overall health condition, medical history, etc.
It is important though to operate with real, factual numbers.
Having 41% of voters think risk is above 50% when it is in fact 1.7% is not operating with facts. This needs to be straightened out.


----------



## damian13ster

bgc_fan said:


> The thing is you aren't suggesting anything new. Throughout the whole epidemic we've stressed the fact that we need to get a high percentage of vaccination to get herd immunity and bring things to normal. That's been the talking point for the whole time, and the message hasn't deviated. What you have are the holdouts who think/say, as long as the others get immunized, I don't have to.


Not really. We kept moving the goalposts, broke promises, manipulated numbers, made different rules for different people. Governments lied, manipulated, hid facts, made decisions based on politics and not medicine. No wonder there is trust issue - the governments worked extremely hard to provide as many arguments not to trust them as possible.

From the latest and greatest, it is in national interest to have athletes exempt from vaccine passports. 
If you are a peasant - no entrance to arena for you. If you are a millionaire celebrity - go right ahead!


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> The thing is you aren't suggesting anything new. Throughout the whole epidemic we've stressed the fact that we need to get a high percentage of vaccination to get herd immunity and bring things to normal. That's been the talking point for the whole time, and the message hasn't deviated. What you have are the holdouts who think/say, as long as the others get immunized, I don't have to.


It is new. You just don't want to see it. My approach would be a two prong strategy.

1) Ask the unvaccinated directly (not a message to everyone to get vaccinated) and very nicely to be a hero. To do what they don't want to do because we all need them to do it. We are counting on them to help out in this emergency. Many peoples lives and our health care system depends on them.

2) Then, after a few weeks, basically throw the remaining hold outs, out of our society with severely restrictive vaccine passports. Add a health care levy to their taxes, which includes a tax credit that makes the levy go away for the vaccinated. I am thinking around 3% of income. Along with existing passport measures adding no entry to hair salons, churches, weddings, funerals, private social gatherings, all road side pick up for non-essential retail including beer and liquor stores. Literally throw them out. They obviously do not want to participate in our society, so they won't.

Basically the carrot and then the stick approach.


----------



## zinfit

you will never get everyone vaccinated so what percentage is acceptable. Alberta has about 74% . I recall experts 6 monhsago suggesting 75% vaccinated should providesciety with solid protection. I believe BC is on the high side with 82% . Anyways even Alberta and SK have higher vaccination rates than Israel or the USA. No matter what measures are taken their will 10 or 15% who never be vaccinated. To get everyone vaccinated is beyond the power of a democratic society.


----------



## OptsyEagle

zinfit said:


> you will never get everyone vaccinated so what percentage is acceptable. Alberta has about 74% . I recall experts 6 monhsago suggesting 75% vaccinated should providesciety with solid protection. I believe BC is on the high side with 82% . Anyways even Alberta and SK have higher vaccination rates than Israel or the USA. No matter what measures are taken their will 10 or 15% who never be vaccinated. To get everyone vaccinated is beyond the power of a democratic society.


IMO those numbers are really just useful if there was a hope of herd immunity, which I don't believe there is and perhaps a little useful in delaying the inevitable infections of all the remaining unvaccinated. That delay is useful, to give the hospitals time to deal with the number of unvaccinated people they will need to process, but a better way would be to reduce the highest demand for hospital services from this group.

For that we don't actually need everyone vaccinated. What we need are the people age 50 or older vaccinated. Those are the unvaccinated people who are putting our hospitals in jeopardy and consequently putting the health of all of us in jeopardy as well...not to mention holding back our fight in ending this pandemic for us and them.

To put the problem into numbers, at least for Ontario:

Ontario currently has 464,000 citizens age 50 or older unvaccinated. So basically 3% of the population is putting the entire health care system for everyone in jeopardy. Now, how many of those should vaccinate to solve the problem. 100% would be the right number but knowing my fellow citizens, that won't happen. Since I don't know how quickly the virus will get to them I can't say how many we can support unvaccinated. I am pretty sure 464,000 is way too many for when we move our socializing indoors.


----------



## andrewf

zinfit said:


> MIT says transmission is very rare outdoors. They estimate the risk at 1% compared to indoors . The Chinese research seems to support that estimate.


Is that on the original strain or delta? Delta is far more transmissible, and there have been many documented cases of outdoor spread.


----------



## birdman

In a casual brief discussion an acquaintance of who is a hospital employee presently working in ICU stated something to the effect that "ICU is operating at 130% capacity, non emergency surgeries are cancelled, and whole families including children are infected and come in together for help. Ventilators are at or above capacity and both parents are sometimes put on ventilators at the same time. Some die and then maybe 40 days later the other comes off the ventilator, wakes up, and asks about their spouse and the staff has to tell them that they had died. Of course the surviving individual is devastated and their next words were "I'm going to sue you". This suing statement has happened more than once. I expect most of these individuals are anti vaxers and after they come around they must tell their children and then try to pick up the pieces and restart there life. So sad.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> It is new. You just don't want to see it. My approach would be a two prong strategy.
> 
> 1) Ask the unvaccinated directly (not a message to everyone to get vaccinated) and very nicely to be a hero. To do what they don't want to do because we all need them to do it. We are counting on them to help out in this emergency. Many peoples lives and our health care system depends on them.
> 
> 2) Then, after a few weeks, basically throw the remaining hold outs, out of our society with severely restrictive vaccine passports. Add a health care levy to their taxes, which includes a tax credit that makes the levy go away for the vaccinated. I am thinking around 3% of income. Along with existing passport measures adding no entry to hair salons, churches, weddings, funerals, private social gatherings, all road side pick up for non-essential retail including beer and liquor stores. Literally throw them out. They obviously do not want to participate in our society, so they won't.
> 
> Basically the carrot and then the stick approach.


You don't recall the campaign to social distance? Be a hero, stay home and vegetate on the couch, and we couldn't even get that done. 
Your premise is flawed though. The holdouts who keep screaming about freedoms think that they ARE the heroes. They're fighting for our freedom to choose to not get vaccinated. It just happens to be a pretty selfish view though because they actually don't care about your freedoms, just their own, but they've justified it by saying that they're fighting for everyone's right to choose.
All point 2 is going to do is add fuel to the fire that they're the victims for their constitutional right to chose not to get vaccinated. That's NOT going to convince them.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Your points are based on a plea to everyone when I am talking about a plea directly to the remaining unvaccinated. You may believe it to be the same but it is far from the same. You see, when the pleas went out to everyone to get vaccinated most of us could not book an appointment quick enough. We wanted the vaccine. These people are not in the same mindset. They don't want it. Those pleas that went to us will not work for them. *They consider themselves different because they are different. *They don't want to get vaccinated. That is the difference...and it is a very big difference that we should attempt to recognize and acknowledge.

I don't care about adding fuel to a fire. Many provinces are already on fire. * I just think that we should be considerate of these peoples wishes to not vaccinate, but asked them nicely to do so anyway,* for the good of our province and country. A plea for help directly to them. Send them a letter in the mail. Do a press conference and advertise the plea on facebook.

Then, when the unselfish are done vaccinating, whether that be 1 or 100,000 or more, we then explain to the holdouts that the benefits of our society come with a cost. At times a citizen will be asked to help out for the sole good of society. If a citizen refuses to do that, then we will decide to exclude them. Living in our society is a two way street.

Then announce the new, more severe restrictions, and we are done. If they change their mind, they will be welcome, if they don't they won't.

It is a lot more fair and better then just calling them stupid and asking everyone to vaccinate like we have in the past and assuming that will work.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> *They consider themselves different because they are different. *They don't want to get vaccinated. That is the difference...and it is a very big difference that we should attempt to recognize and acknowledge.


Yes, different because they don't want to get vaccinated for their reasons. Whether you like it or not, they are stuck with that mindset and no amount of convincing is going to change their minds. You think that you can really change their minds with candy? Part of it has been politicized with spillover from the US. Let's put it this way, try to convince a dye-in-the-wool Republican to vote Democrat or vice-versa. Nothing is going to change their mind.

Of course, I'm referring to the subset who are referring to the freedom and my choice crowd, as well as the conspiracy theorists.

There are some who don't want to get vaccinated because they think vaccines are experimental and don't trust possible side-effects. Assuming they are being honest, it is an understandable viewpoint, and one that can be addressed, though given how long vaccines are out there, I'm going to start pushing them towards the previous crowd.

Then again, there are those that don't trust the government, so no matter what government outreach is done, the efforts are going to be wasted.









'We are not anti-vaxxers': Concerns over side-effects, research among main reasons some Canadians are not getting COVID-19 vaccine


When CTVNews.ca asked Canadians who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19 to share their reasons why, many cited concerns about the vaccines' development, potential side-effects, and pre-existing health concerns as reasons for their hesitancy.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## OptsyEagle

Alright. Let's end this. Thanks for the discussion.


----------



## Beaver101

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/rights-freedoms-charter-vaccine-alberta-government-1.6186034


----------



## bgc_fan

I guess being a healthy 28 year old hockey player isn't going to help with the complications due to covid

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1444741206257266690
I guess his anti-vax views caught up to him. Well, I guess he gets the year off, and 40% of his $1.5M pay.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1444747763946754050


----------



## MrMatt

You know with all the talk about how the Government infringes on human rights, and how we should be free to choose for ourselves, I don't get the mandatory vaxx crowd.

We decided that a woman is entitled to kill her child, on a whim, because we don't want to infringe on her bodily autonomy.
But we can force someone to risk their life on a vaccine "for their own good", and a debatable "public good"

Really confuses me, the one that is guaranteed to result in death is the one people think is ok.
Like if saving lives is a public interest that overrides bodily autonomy, how is abortion legal? I'd say that merely saving lives isn't enough to override bodily autonomy in this manner, but clearly I'm missing something in the values structure of these people.
I honestly think they simply lack an internally consistent value structure.

Just as a reminder, I'm pro consensual abortion and pro consensual vaxx but the moral contradiction about medical rights confuses me.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> But we can force someone to risk their life on a vaccine "for their own good", and a debatable "public good"


Does the Alberta hospital situation really look all that debatable? An entire Province's health care is in jeopardy because of these few citizens decisions. That is unacceptable.

Either they opt out for healthcare or they opt in for vaccination or they leave our society. We are giving them a choice.

For the love of god, in the past we asked Canadian's to advance into machine gun fire and take Vimy Ridge, and they did. We are just asking them to vaccinate for the safety and protection of our entire healthcare system. It is definitely not too much to ask.


----------



## zinfit

I note some provinces are trying to get supplies of the J&J vaccine. It has some plus marks. Some of the advantages one shot helps with the people who are fearful of needles or are to lazy to get two shots. It isn't mRNA so the anti-vaxxers who are hung up on this might take this. People can get a vaccine passport without waiting an additional period of many weeks to get the second shot and become fully vaccinated. It is certainly worth the effort to get more people vaccinated.


----------



## sags

Maybe the J&J vaccine should be used for the "booster shot", if there is no problems mixing the vaccines.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> Does the Alberta hospital situation really look all that debatable? An entire Province's health care is in jeopardy because of these few citizens decisions. That is unacceptable.
> 
> Either they opt out for healthcare or they opt in for vaccination or they leave our society. We are giving them a choice.
> 
> For the love of god, in the past we asked Canadian's to advance into machine gun fire and take Vimy Ridge, and they did. We are just asking them to vaccinate for the safety and protection of our entire healthcare system. It is definitely not too much to ask.


That's inaccurate. Health care system is strained because of obesity. Much higher percentage of obese people end in hospital. Over 75% of COVID patients are morbidly obese. Obesity is the reason health care system is so damn expensive and failing.
Maybe following a trend we need to make those mandatory:








Scientists Develop "Weight-Loss Device" That Locks Jaws Shut And People Are Not Happy


Scientists Develop "Weight-Loss Device" That Locks Jaws Shut And People Are Not Happy




www.iflscience.com


----------



## potato69

MrMatt said:


> We decided that a woman is entitled to kill her child, on a whim, because we don't want to infringe on her bodily autonomy.
> But we can force someone to risk their life on a vaccine "for their own good", and a debatable "public good"


You answered it yourself - her choice does not have a direct negative impact to society at large. Pretty simple.

I think the Vax passport is actually a pretty nice compromise. Forces people who chose not to vaccinate to own the consequences of their actions. Further, unvaxed people SHOULDN'T be in crowded places like sporting events and restaurants. As a country with socialized medicine their choice impacts our country's health care bottom line. We can't afford these anti-vaxers.


----------



## MrMatt

potato69 said:


> You answered it yourself - her choice does not have a direct negative impact to society at large. Pretty simple.


Yes killing one person doesn't have a direct negative impact to society at large.
However the precedent that it's okay to kill one person leads to the situation where we kill thousands or even millions. At which point I'd suggest there is a significant impact.
Negative or positive is a opinion.



> I think the Vax passport is actually a pretty nice compromise. Forces people who chose not to vaccinate to own the consequences of their actions.


The consequence of not getting vaccinated is it increases your chance of death or serious harm.



> Further, unvaxed people SHOULDN'T be in crowded places like sporting events and restaurants.


I'd suggest people who have COVID19 shouldn't be in crowded places.
Vaccination status is irrelevant.



> As a country with socialized medicine their choice impacts our country's health care bottom line. We can't afford these anti-vaxers.


Well lets defund Long Term Care and just euthanize those expensive old people, they're so darn expensive.
And those unhealthy lifestyles, maybe we should just take all the kids and put them in government child care facilities where we teach the the "right" way to live... that couldn't possibly work out bad.


I don't understand, how with all the abuses of overreaching government being so obvious to Canadians, they still don't understand the importance of protecting basic human rights.


----------



## potato69

Why do we have laws at all? Laws put a limit on my behaviour. I think it's unfair.


----------



## potato69

Why do we have laws at all? Laws put a limit on my behaviour. I think it's unfair.


----------



## bgc_fan

zinfit said:


> I note some provinces are trying to get supplies of the J&J vaccine. It has some plus marks. Some of the advantages one shot helps with the people who are fearful of needles or are to lazy to get two shots. It isn't mRNA so the anti-vaxxers who are hung up on this might take this. People can get a vaccine passport without waiting an additional period of many weeks to get the second shot and become fully vaccinated. It is certainly worth the effort to get more people vaccinated.


Some positive points, though I find it interesting that people would jump on a adenovirus vector vaccine when it could be considered just as experimental as an mRNA vaccine.








Adenoviral vectors are the new COVID-19 vaccine front-runners. Can they overcome their checkered past?


CanSino Biologics, Johnson & Johnson, and the University of Oxford are all using genetically engineered common cold viruses to make COVID-19 vaccines. The technology is more than 30 years in the making, but it’s yet to yield an effective vaccine for humans




cen.acs.org





Just a note that CanSino is obviously the NRC collaboration vaccine. It should also be noted that they may have been one of the first out of the gate, but they only completed clinical trials earlier this year.

Edit: Should also point out that AstraZeneca is also an adenovirus vector vaccine and you'll see that same blood clot side-effects in J&J. Still low, but something to keep in mind when you start arguing one is better than an mRNA vaccine. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/naci-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-blood-clot-risk-covid-19-1.6012102
So, if we've put a pause on AZ, I don't see why the same would be the case for J&J.


----------



## zinfit

bgc_fan said:


> Some positive points, though I find it interesting that people would jump on a adenovirus vector vaccine when it could be considered just as experimental as an mRNA vaccine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Adenoviral vectors are the new COVID-19 vaccine front-runners. Can they overcome their checkered past?
> 
> 
> CanSino Biologics, Johnson & Johnson, and the University of Oxford are all using genetically engineered common cold viruses to make COVID-19 vaccines. The technology is more than 30 years in the making, but it’s yet to yield an effective vaccine for humans
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cen.acs.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Just a note that CanSino is obviously the NRC collaboration vaccine. It should also be noted that they may have been one of the first out of the gate, but they only completed clinical trials earlier this year.
> 
> Edit: Should also point out that AstraZeneca is also an adenovirus vector vaccine and you'll see that same blood clot side-effects in J&J. Still low, but something to keep in mind when you start arguing one is better than an mRNA vaccine. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/naci-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-blood-clot-risk-covid-19-1.6012102
> So, if we've put a pause on AZ, I don't see why the same would be the case for J&J.


fair comments. One advantage over AstraZenca is it is a one dose vaccine. That might be attractive for people wanting a vaccine passport and people who are highly fearful of needles. If it moves the needle 2 or 3% it is worth the effort.


----------



## Beaver101

Trudeau expected to announce all federal workers must be vaccinated against COVID-19

The walls are closing in.

Update (4:55 pm): City of Toronto workers face 6-week unpaid suspension, termination if not fully vaccinated against COVID-19

If these rules are laid out clearly for municipal employees, I can't see the same-said rules as being that much different for provincial and federal employees. Good to see there is some resemblance of governmental leadership though the "walk the talk (aka rules enforcement)" remains to seen to actually happen.


----------



## bgc_fan

zinfit said:


> fair comments. One advantage over AstraZenca is it is a one dose vaccine. That might be attractive for people wanting a vaccine passport and people who are highly fearful of needles. If it moves the needle 2 or 3% it is worth the effort.


The one dose is the selling point, and was used as a reason that it would be good to deal with those who are hard to get follow-up shots. The main target was isolated communities and homeless. But even now, they're looking for a booster shot at 2 months after the first one for increased effectiveness (at one shot it had lowered effectiveness compared to Moderna or Pfizer), but that fundamentally makes it a 2 shot vaccine: Johnson & Johnson asks FDA to authorize Covid-19 vaccine booster shots

At one shot, J&J has an effectiveness of around 66% or so (looks like alpha): How Effective Is the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 Vaccine? Here’s What You Should Know
Pfizer after one shot is 33% or so against delta: Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant

That's a bit of comparing apples to oranges given the characteristics of the different strains, but my interpretations is that J&J is really a 2 shot vaccine being marketed as a 1 shot.


----------



## OptsyEagle

We want them to fully vaccinate with 2 shots. They don't want any shots at all. I am willing to compromise at 1 shot if it gets the deal done.

1 shot should still keep most of them out of our hospitals.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Dreaming of which year? Some holdouts want a specific brand-name vaccine (eg. Novovax) that hasn't even been approved .... remember life must move on. LMAO.


----------



## sags

The latest is that the Pfizer vaccine only has 44% protection after 6 months.

It will be important to get booster shots started on a large scale soon, as it will take months to complete.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Only if those booster shots are available ... re the 'large-scale', have you heard anything? I haven't even heard of a 'little beep' there. I think the procurement office is closed for the rest of the year.

Add: The annual flu-shot is here though and I wonder what that take-up will be like this year.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> We want them to fully vaccinate with 2 shots. They don't want any shots at all. I am willing to compromise at 1 shot if it gets the deal done.
> 
> 1 shot should still keep most of them out of our hospitals.


The point about J&J is that it is being billed as a one and done vaccine, which it practically isn't. So assuming that you can convince people to take the J&J, because it is only one shot, but then turn around and say, BTW to get full protection, you need to take a second one in 2 months, you are doing a bait-and-switch. The problem is that hold-outs aren't likely paying attention to this change, and will feel tricked and less trusting if they are told this after their initial shot.

Sure one shot of anything is better than nothing, but given the lower effectiveness, you'll see some get covid and then blame the vaccine.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> The point about J&J is that it is being billed as a one and done vaccine, which it practically isn't. So assuming that you can convince people to take the J&J, because it is only one shot, but then turn around and say, BTW to get full protection, you need to take a second one in 2 months, you are doing a bait-and-switch. The problem is that hold-outs aren't likely paying attention to this change, and will feel tricked and less trusting if they are told this after their initial shot.
> 
> Sure one shot of anything is better than nothing, but given the lower effectiveness, you'll see some get covid and then blame the vaccine.


Better to get tricked after their shot then not to take one at all. I don't really care anymore how they feel. I just want them out of the hospitals. The lower effectiveness, for the vast majority will simply be the difference between having almost asymptomatic symptoms (2 doses) as opposed to being horribly sick at home (1 dose). Either way they are not in our hospitals.

As I have said many times, when I point out the need to vaccinate everyone age 50 and older, is that the younger ages should vaccinate as well, but for the vast majority of the younger ones, if they don't they really just punish themselves with a couple weeks of horrible sickness at home and maybe a lifetime of breathing disability or other long covid issues, etc. But at least they take all the downside for their bad decision. With the older group, we all take the downside for it. One dose of any vaccine will probably change the ICU trip to the 2 weeks at home very, very, very sick, in the worse case scenario for the vast majority of them.

I have no problem with that result. I just don't think a very small number of citizens should be allowed to put a provinces entire health care system in jeopardy. They just can't be given that right.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Better to get tricked after their shot then not to take one at all. I don't really care anymore how they feel. I just want them out of the hospitals. The lower effectiveness, for the vast majority will simply be the difference between having almost asymptomatic symptoms (2 doses) as opposed to being horribly sick at home (1 dose). Either way they are not in our hospitals.


Kind of, but there are still going to be some that will have to make it to the ICUs. Obviously not everyone in the ICU is non-vaccinated, just 90+% of them.

Like I said, these are the types of people that have little trust in the system, and tricking them is not a good thing for the long-term. Particularly since there are going to be boosters required as variants develop. Given the worldwide immunization rate, I'm sure we're going to see a number of variants over the next few years.

That being said, it doesn't mean we have to necessarily lockdown or expect that ICUs get filled all the time, it's that we're going to have to accept that we have to look at the long-term solutions/strategies.


----------



## OptsyEagle

bgc_fan said:


> Kind of, but there are still going to be some that will have to make it to the ICUs. Obviously not everyone in the ICU is non-vaccinated, just 90+% of them.


Of course. My objective is to see the health care system in a state of full operation. That means an ICU department able to take on more patients, and more importantly, a resumption of regular health care operations such as regular surgeries, etc. My objective does not include babysitting or looking after the health of unvaccinated people. Once the healthcare system is put in a safe position, the unvaccinated can choose anything they want.

I can't say for sure that 1 shot of JNJ will solve that but the 1st shot takes the "novel" out of this virus and I definitely believe that for the vast majority of people that would be enough to keep them at home...but of course not everyone.

On an aside, I heard today that Alberta is observing a larger then normal number of "readmissions" to the hospital. So it looks like the Delta is putting out a lot more "long covid" then the other viruses did, for the same level of illness. That is not good. People really should vaccinate. It is so hard to fathom these peoples views, but anyway, hopefully we can get to the point where we can leave their problems in their hands. Right now their problems are still too much our problems. That definitely cannot continue.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> On an aside, I heard today that Alberta is observing a larger then normal number of "readmissions" to the hospital. So it looks like the Delta is putting out a lot more "long covid" then the other viruses did, for the same level of illness. That is not good. People really should vaccinate. It is so hard to fathom these peoples views, but anyway, hopefully we can get to the point where we can leave their problems in their hands. Right now their problems are still too much our problems. That definitely cannot continue.


I saw that... most people just consider the deaths, but forget about short and long-term effects that require follow-up treatment. That means, aside from the original ICU resources, we're talking about using regular hospital care resources.


----------



## MrMatt

I saw a post that made a bit of sense today.
"The same people that spent a year fighting this pandemic, without a vaccine, were heroes. Now we're firing them for exercising their rights."

You should not be regulating peoples bodies, it should be their choice, even if it's the wrong choice.

My concern is that they're politicizing human rights. Standing up for human rights is now clearly a "right wing" thing, which is scary, but not suprising.
The greatest evils in recent history were left wingers who ignored human rights.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> I saw a post that made a bit of sense today.
> "The same people that spent a year fighting this pandemic, without a vaccine, were heroes. Now we're firing them for exercising their rights."
> 
> You should not be regulating peoples bodies, it should be their choice, even if it's the wrong choice.
> 
> My concern is that they're politicizing human rights. Standing up for human rights is now clearly a "right wing" thing, which is scary, but not suprising.
> The greatest evils in recent history were left wingers who ignored human rights.


When these people go to court you will find that the public interest overrides individual rights in these circumstances. Individual rights are not absolutes. We have a social contract. With rights comes social responsibility. If you don't want to be vaccinated that your choice . That doesn't me there aren't consequences. . I have rights as well and that means keeping the unvaccinated away from my life and health.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> When these people go to court you will find that the public interest overrides individual rights in these circumstances. Individual rights are not absolutes. We have a social contract. With rights comes social responsibility. If you don't want to be vaccinated that your choice . That doesn't me there aren't consequences. *. I have rights as well and that means keeping the unvaccinated away from my life and health.*


 ... keeping away from the "un-vaccinateds" on the assumption that they have a higher transmissibility with a heavier viral load once severely infected. Plus the fact that they''ll clutter the ICUs which could have been easily prevented with a simple jab or 2. This then deprives others from using those resources, never mind about putting the treating healthcare workers + other patients at risk as well. 

The "un-vaccinateds (not due to medical exemptions which are expected to be few)" should really ask themselves a simple question "what is so special about me, the unvaccinated" versus the "what is so special about me, the vaccinated"?


----------



## damian13ster

Sweden suspends Moderna vaccine for those 30 and under


Scandinavian authorities on Wednesday suspended or discouraged the use of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine in young people because of an increased risk of heart inflammation, a very rare side effect associated with the shot.




www.ctvnews.ca





Wish that was the case before I got that garbage and went through the suffering


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> When these people go to court you will find that the public interest overrides individual rights in these circumstances. Individual rights are not absolutes. We have a social contract. With rights comes social responsibility. If you don't want to be vaccinated that your choice . That doesn't me there aren't consequences. . I have rights as well and that means keeping the unvaccinated away from my life and health.


But part of that social contract is that those demands be reasonable.

You can't discriminate based on on religious beliefs, which in my opinion should carry far lower standing than a persons bodily autonomy.
Remember, the right to autonomy over ones body extends to the killing of other people. There is no way the minor public benefit of vaccination equates to literal murder.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> But part of that social contract is that those demands be reasonable.
> 
> You can't discriminate based on on religious beliefs, which in my opinion should carry far lower standing than a persons bodily autonomy.
> Remember, the right to autonomy over ones body extends to the killing of other people. There is no way the minor public benefit of vaccination equates to literal murder.


They are more then reasonable. In Alberta the ICUs are near capacity and 91% of the people in ICUs are unvaccinated. Other treatments and surgeries are being cancelled and postponed because unvaccinated people with covid are shutting down the healthcare system. The unvaccinated are creating a public health crisis. I have zero sympathy for your position. The public good is much more important right now than the ignorant and selfish position of the unvaccinated. Enough is enough.


----------



## damian13ster

That is solely your opinion. Fact is that ICUs are overwhelmingly occupied by obese people.
Obesity is much bigger predictor of hospitalizations than vaccination status is.

The problem is that human rights can't be subjective. Every single moment in history, in which human rights were subjective, in which segregation was allowed, ended in tragedy. There is no exception. If you put a threshold on human's right as 'opinion is enough to ignore them' then not a single act of genocide, segregation, violation, or racism can ever be condemned. After all, they were all committed based on someone's opinion that segregation, genocide, racism, violence, and violation of human rights is better for society at a cost of human rights of individual/distinct group


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> Sweden suspends Moderna vaccine for those 30 and under
> 
> 
> Scandinavian authorities on Wednesday suspended or discouraged the use of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine in young people because of an increased risk of heart inflammation, a very rare side effect associated with the shot.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wish that was the case before I got that garbage and went through the suffering


Alberta 6.2 million vaccinations. Reported negative side effects. are at 1600 and almost all are minor from sore arms andswelling to nausea, headaches or allergic reactions. Almost all of those were over in a day or two. Cost benefit analysis is clearly onthe side of vaccinations. Yes Moderna can cause heart inflammation in younger people and the Swedes have reacted in kind. I can name an NHL hockey player who found the hard way that covid can cause even more serious heart problems. Yourside effects is no reason to junk vaccines. Alberta's ICUs are almost at capacity if the unvaccinated. Can you image what shape it would be in if the 74% of the vaccinated hadn't been vaccinated


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> Alberta 6.2 million vaccinations. Reported negative side effects. are at 1600 and almost all are minor from sore arms andswelling to nausea, headaches or allergic reactions. Almost all of those were over in a day or two. Cost benefit analysis is clearly onthe side of vaccinations. Yes Moderna can cause heart inflammation in younger people and the Swedes have reacted in kind. I can name an NHL hockey player who found the hard way that covid can cause even more serious heart problems. Yourside effects is no reason to junk vaccines. Alberta's ICUs are almost at capacity if the unvaccinated. Can you image what shape it would be in if the 74% of the vaccinated hadn't been vaccinated


There are countries in which 74% of people are unvaccinated. You can look at their shape and you have an answer to your question
In Alberta more people died from vaccine than from COVID among under 20 year olds. 
There is plenty of reasons to junk vaccines - although for vast majority of people they are still a good choice.


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> Alberta 6.2 million vaccinations. Reported negative side effects. are at 1600 and almost all are minor from sore arms andswelling to nausea, headaches or allergic reactions. Almost all of those were over in a day or two. Cost benefit analysis is clearly onthe side of vaccinations. Yes Moderna can cause heart inflammation in younger people and the Swedes have reacted in kind. I can name an NHL hockey player who found the hard way that covid can cause even more serious heart problems. Yourside effects is no reason to junk vaccines. Alberta's ICUs are almost at capacity if the unvaccinated. Can you image what shape it would be in if the 74% of the vaccinated hadn't been vaccinated


Okay, add in a few deaths and I won't pick apart your argument. I agree, it's clear that for most people they should get vaccinated, while for some it's an undue risk.
The only person who should make that decision is the patient.

My position remains, "My body my choice", even to the extent that it means the death of someone else (that's the pro abortion position)


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> Okay, add in a few deaths and I won't pick apart your argument. I agree, it's clear that for most people they should get vaccinated, while for some it's an undue risk.
> The only person who should make that decision is the patient.
> 
> My position remains, "My body my choice", even to the extent that it means the death of someone else (that's the pro abortion position)


you are right my only point is stay away from me and others who have made a decision respecting the health of myself and others. Holmes said your rights end when you scream fire in a movie theatre. In Alberta your rights should end once the ICU s are plugged with the selfish unvaccinated. There are rights for the vaccinated and the health workers as well They have bodies as well. Your position is falling on deaf ears. You need a telephone booth to continue this point of views. For Damian I have no idea what to say to him. For a guy that suffered dire circumstances from vaccination he are has a lot of energy for posting on this site. Given his description I would have thought he was in a ICU.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> you are right my only point is stay away from me and others who have made a decision respecting the health of myself and others. Holmes said your rights end when you scream fire in a movie theatre. In Alberta your rights should end once the ICU s are plugged with the selfish unvaccinated. There are rights for the vaccinated and the health workers as well They have bodies as well. Your position is falling on deaf ears. You need a telephone booth to continue this point of views. For Damian I have no idea what to say to him. For a guy that suffered dire circumstances from vaccination he are has a lot of energy for posting on this site. Given his description I would have thought he was in a ICU.


You are right, except you are missing an irony here - you are the one screaming fire in a movie theatre.
By disallowing tested unvaccinated people from gathering, working, socializing - you are screaming at people who are less risky to their surroundings than untested vaccinated people.

Look at most recent changes:
- unvacinnated people with negative covid tests not being allowed to work or travel on planes or trains.

Facts are:
Unvaccinated person with negative COVID test is less risky for its surrounding than vaccinated person without negative COVID test.
False negative rate is significantly lower than efficacy of COVID vaccines in preventing infection.
You are removing people who are safer for their surroundings than people you allow to stay.
If it was up to safety, then this would be very counterproductive.
This policy literally increases risk for those traveling and for those working for federal government.
They have higher chance of catching COVID from untested vaccinated person than from tested unvaccinated person.
Those are facts.
Clearly it isn't about safety


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> You are right, except you are missing an irony here - you are the one screaming fire in a movie theatre.
> By disallowing tested unvaccinated people from gathering, working, socializing - you are screaming at people who are less risky to their surroundings than untested vaccinated people.
> 
> Look at most recent changes:
> - unvacinnated people with negative covid tests not being allowed to work or travel on planes or trains.
> 
> Facts are:
> Unvaccinated person with negative COVID test is less risky for its surrounding than vaccinated person without negative COVID test.
> False negative rate is significantly lower than efficacy of COVID vaccines in preventing infection.
> You are removing people who are safer for their surroundings than people you allow to stay.
> If it was up to safety, then this would be very counterproductive.
> This policy literally increases risk for those traveling and for those working for federal government.
> They have higher chance of catching COVID from untested vaccinated person than from tested unvaccinated person.
> Those are facts.
> Clearly it isn't about safety
> [/QUOT It is about safety when the unvaccinated totally clogged up the healthcare system in Alberta and SK.. That is the facts and reality.


----------



## damian13ster

Yet smokers are allowed to smoke.
Obese people have no problem accessing fast food and aren't mandated on a diet and in a gym.
Over 70% of people in ICU with COVID are obese.
You are ignoring single biggest predictor of healthcare system utilization, single biggest user of healthcare system at this moment, yet you segregate, and discriminate others.
Also, if you are looking at societal benefit then for reasons stated in previous post (and you can easily verify the facts provided), the actions currently taken are counter-productive. Federal government literally introduced segregation laws that are DETRIMENTAL to the society health wise. They increase the spread by deciding to remove people with negative COVID test. 
If you are really concerned about health in society, you would mandate tests for everyone and not remove only group actually tested.
It isn't about safety. Actions taken are detrimental to safety of society.
Vaccinated person with no test is more dangerous to their surroundings than unvaccinated person with negative test.


----------



## andrewf

zinfit said:


> berta 6.2 million vaccinations. Reported negative side effects. are at 1600 and almost all are minor from sore arms andswelling to nausea, headaches or allergic reactions. Almost all of those were over in a day or two.


To be fair, minor side effects are massively underreported. I did not report my sore arm and mild fatigue from first Pfizer shot nor the 2-3 days of muscle soreness, headache, etc. from Moderna 2nd shot.


----------



## zinfit

andrewf said:


> To be fair, minor side effects are massively underreported. I did not report my sore arm and mild fatigue from first Pfizer shot nor the 2-3 days of muscle soreness, headache, etc. from Moderna 2nd shot.


I don't disagree about the reporting of minor effects. For serious negative effects the level of reporting would be much higher.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario hospital fires 57 unvaccinated employees; says 98.5 per cent obeyed mandate

This is a good start on walk-the-talk. OTOH, this can work as a nice break for being un-vaccinated.


----------



## Beaver101

‘Long COVID’ is painful, expensive - and so far, impossible to cure

The above article is behind a paywall but pretty well describes the surviving fortunates with long Covid as being future-unfortunate with health (lots) issues.


----------



## Spudd

damian13ster said:


> There are countries in which 74% of people are unvaccinated. You can look at their shape and you have an answer to your question
> In Alberta more people died from vaccine than from COVID among under 20 year olds.
> There is plenty of reasons to junk vaccines - although for vast majority of people they are still a good choice.


I couldn't find this stat (Alberta vaccine deaths) by searching, do you have a source?

I did find this source for Canada-wide data, which says Canada-wide, there have been 195 deaths reported post-vaccination, but of those, 73 are unlikely to be linked to the vaccine, 75 could not be assessed due to insufficient information, 41 are still under investigation, and 6 had a diagnosis of TTS, which is the blood clotting associated with the vaccines. So there are only 6 known deaths across Canada from the vaccine. But all of them were 19 and older (age range 19-88 years).

There is 1 death in Alberta under 20 years old from Covid. 

Canada-wide, there have been 17 deaths under 20 years old from Covid. 

It is conceivable that the Canada-wide vaccine deaths are all in Alberta and that more than one of them was of a 19-year-old, and hence your stat is true. But I find it EXTREMELY unlikely considering that Canada-wide, there have been almost 3 times as many deaths from Covid under 20 years old than OVERALL deaths from vaccine side effects.


----------



## zinfit

Spudd said:


> I couldn't find this stat (Alberta vaccine deaths) by searching, do you have a source?
> 
> I did find this source for Canada-wide data, which says Canada-wide, there have been 195 deaths reported post-vaccination, but of those, 73 are unlikely to be linked to the vaccine, 75 could not be assessed due to insufficient information, 41 are still under investigation, and 6 had a diagnosis of TTS, which is the blood clotting associated with the vaccines. So there are only 6 known deaths across Canada from the vaccine. But all of them were 19 and older (age range 19-88 years).
> 
> There is 1 death in Alberta under 20 years old from Covid.
> 
> Canada-wide, there have been 17 deaths under 20 years old from Covid.
> 
> It is conceivable that the Canada-wide vaccine deaths are all in Alberta and that more than one of them was of a 19-year-old, and hence your stat is true. But I find it EXTREMELY unlikely considering that Canada-wide, there have been almost 3 times as many deaths from Covid under 20 years old than OVERALL deaths from vaccine side effects.


The blood clotting reports were connected to AZ vaccine. I don't believe their any cases of blood clotting connected to the mRNA vaccine. There seems to be a remote risk of heart inflammation for younger men with Moderna. Most of the reported cases of heart inflammation ended up being a temporary effect.


----------



## damian13ster

Spudd said:


> I couldn't find this stat (Alberta vaccine deaths) by searching, do you have a source?
> 
> I did find this source for Canada-wide data, which says Canada-wide, there have been 195 deaths reported post-vaccination, but of those, 73 are unlikely to be linked to the vaccine, 75 could not be assessed due to insufficient information, 41 are still under investigation, and 6 had a diagnosis of TTS, which is the blood clotting associated with the vaccines. So there are only 6 known deaths across Canada from the vaccine. But all of them were 19 and older (age range 19-88 years).
> 
> There is 1 death in Alberta under 20 years old from Covid.
> 
> Canada-wide, there have been 17 deaths under 20 years old from Covid.
> 
> It is conceivable that the Canada-wide vaccine deaths are all in Alberta and that more than one of them was of a 19-year-old, and hence your stat is true. But I find it EXTREMELY unlikely considering that Canada-wide, there have been almost 3 times as many deaths from Covid under 20 years old than OVERALL deaths from vaccine side effects.


So you completely ignore 75 who were not assessed and 41 still under investigation?
Media reported at least 2 vaccine related deaths in Alberta.
As you have noticed yourself there was only 1 death of person under 20 from COVID in Alberta throughout entire pandemic.
Yet the cry is to get 5 year olds to take it now. 

There is no logic or stats behind the decisions being made.
You haven't replied to facts showing that decisions by government to segregate are detrimental to well-being of people in workplaces, planes, and trains. They are making your surroundings more dangerous for you by reducing amount of tested people.
Ignoring science and facts in the name of ideology


----------



## Spudd

damian13ster said:


> So you completely ignore 75 who were not assessed and 41 still under investigation?
> Media reported at least 2 vaccine related deaths in Alberta.
> As you have noticed yourself there was only 1 death of person under 20 from COVID in Alberta throughout entire pandemic.
> Yet the cry is to get 5 year olds to take it now.
> 
> There is no logic or stats behind the decisions being made.
> You haven't replied to facts showing that decisions by government to segregate are detrimental to well-being of people in workplaces, planes, and trains. They are making your surroundings more dangerous for you by reducing amount of tested people.
> Ignoring science and facts in the name of ideology


And you haven't provided a source for your "fact". I can't converse further until you bring something to the table.


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> They are more then reasonable.


While I personally am vaccinated and think everyone should be. I don't think mandatory vaccinations like this are reasonable. 

We decided it was okay to seize, abuse, torture and kill kids because they happened to be "Indians".
Or simply sterilize "undesirables", which still goes on today.

Sorry, but your right to bodily autonomy is among the highest rights.



> In Alberta the ICUs are near capacity and 91% of the people in ICUs are unvaccinated. Other treatments and surgeries are being cancelled and postponed because unvaccinated people with covid are shutting down the healthcare system. The unvaccinated are creating a public health crisis. I have zero sympathy for your position. The public good is much more important right now than the ignorant and selfish position of the unvaccinated. Enough is enough.


So what, some people died as a result of their decisions.
That's their right, and yes people will likely die.

Personal medical autonomy is more important than other peoples lives. This is a well established concept in modern society.

At least those who choose not to get a COVID19 vaccine aren't intentionally killing people.

Every person who chooses to have an abortion is killing someone, and we're okay with that, it's the intentional killing of a human life. 
Unintentional, and unlikely death from a person exercising the same right to exercise their right to bodily autonomy is far less troubling than intentionally taking an innocent persons life (at taxpayer expense)


----------



## damian13ster

Spudd said:


> And you haven't provided a source for your "fact". I can't converse further until you bring something to the table.


Which one?
You really need a source? CBC has article that efficacy of Pfizer is 44% in stopping the spread?
False negative rate for COVID tests is also not a mystery.








False negative rate of COVID-19 PCR testing: a discordant testing analysis - Virology Journal


Background COVID-19 is diagnosed via detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA using real time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rtRT-PCR). Performance of many SARS-CoV-2 rtRT-PCR assays is not entirely known due to the lack of a gold standard. We sought to evaluate the false negative rate...




virologyj.biomedcentral.com




Those aren't some shady numbers. They are well known and they clearly show that tested person is safer for their surroundings than vaccinated, untested person.


----------



## sags

_Those aren't some shady numbers. They are well known and they clearly show that tested person is safer for their surroundings than vaccinated, untested person._

FUD alert !

Test results are only valid until the tested person meets another person. They are a "moment in time" test.

People test negative when they get on aircraft and test positive when they arrive at their destination.

Testing is not a foolproof solution. Vaccines protect continuously until their effectiveness wanes.

Hence the need for booster shots.

To be meaningful, people would need to be tested every time they had an interaction with others.


----------



## sags

Anti-vaxxers are causing unnecessary deaths by filling up hospitals and using strained resources. They are preventing needed surgeries and treatments.

I think we have reached a time when the un-vaccinated should be refused entry into regular hospitals and should be directed to special facilities to care for them.

As a society, we can't allow the reckless behaviour of a minority endanger the health and safety of the majority.

I don't care if they have a religious exemption. Let their church set up a hospital for them.

I don't want their religious nonsense spilling over into my life.

If there is a patient in the hospital who presents a danger to staff and other patients, the police are called to deal with them.

Why should we allow the unvaccinated to present a danger, just because it is invisible ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Anti-vaxxers are causing unnecessary deaths by filling up hospitals and using strained resources. They are preventing needed surgeries and treatments.
> 
> I think we have reached a time when the un-vaccinated should be refused entry into regular hospitals and should be directed to special facilities to care for them.
> 
> As a society, we can't allow the reckless behaviour of a minority endanger the health and safety of the majority.


Yes we do, all the time.



> I don't care if they have a religious exemption. Let their church set up a hospital for them.


I think it would be great if churches could set up a hospital, but they can't, because that would violate the Canada Health act.



> I don't want their religious nonsense spilling over into my life.


It's not religion, some people nearly died due to the first shot, and don't want a second.



> If there is a patient in the hospital who presents a danger to staff and other patients, the police are called to deal with them.
> 
> Why should we allow the unvaccinated to present a danger, just because it is invisible ?


Because unvaccinated people are not a danger, symptomatic people are.
Yo're like the person who says "every man is a rapist waiting to happen".


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> _Those aren't some shady numbers. They are well known and they clearly show that tested person is safer for their surroundings than vaccinated, untested person._
> 
> FUD alert !
> 
> Test results are only valid until the tested person meets another person. They are a "moment in time" test.
> 
> People test negative when they get on aircraft and test positive when they arrive at their destination.
> 
> Testing is not a foolproof solution. Vaccines protect continuously until their effectiveness wanes.
> 
> Hence the need for booster shots.
> 
> To be meaningful, people would need to be tested every time they had an interaction with others.


Foolproof? No. They are just significantly better than vaccinated person without a test.

Failure to catch a positive case is around 9% - that means 91% are caught.
Vaccine provides only 44% protection - that means 56% are unprotected.

Now, we have been in pandemic at over 500 days now and around 5% of Canadians caught it.
Therefore, a chance to be infected in 72h period is 0.05/500*3 => 0.03%.
Foolproof? No, but 99.97% effective.
If you add the 0.03% to the 9% false negatives, you have 9.03% chance.
With vaccination and no test you have 56% chance.
You are literally 6 times safer working or traveling with unvaccinated person that has been tested 72h ago than with vaccinated person.

Science is clear here. The policies introduced are anti-science.
They knowingly endanger Canadians. Government is science-denying


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> Foolproof? No. They are just significantly better than vaccinated person without a test.
> 
> Failure to catch a positive case is around 9% - that means 91% are caught.
> Vaccine provides only 44% protection - that means 56% are unprotected.
> 
> Now, we have been in pandemic at over 500 days now and around 5% of Canadians caught it.
> Therefore, a chance to be infected in 72h period is 0.05/500*3 => 0.03%.
> Foolproof? No, but 99.97% effective.
> If you add the 0.03% to the 9% false negatives, you have 9.03% chance.
> With vaccination and no test you have 56% chance.
> You are literally 6 times safer working or traveling with unvaccinated person that has been tested 72h ago than with vaccinated person.
> 
> Science is clear here. The policies introduced are anti-science.
> They knowingly endanger Canadians. Government is science-denying


I have tired hard to understand this confused analysis . I give up and go back to the Mayo Clinic analysis that says that among people who get covid the unvaccinated have a much higher risk of being hospitalized. John Hopkins says the the odds of vaccinated people who contact covid is 1 out of 11,000 and the odds are 1 out of 112 wth the unvaccinated. I will accept this over your contorted analysis . You could be right as the Mayo Clinic and JohnHopkins could be lying and be part of the globalists agenda .


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Foolproof? No. They are just significantly better than vaccinated person without a test.
> 
> Failure to catch a positive case is around 9% - that means 91% are caught.
> Vaccine provides only 44% protection - that means 56% are unprotected.
> 
> Now, we have been in pandemic at over 500 days now and around 5% of Canadians caught it.
> Therefore, a chance to be infected in 72h period is 0.05/500*3 => 0.03%.
> Foolproof? No, but 99.97% effective.
> If you add the 0.03% to the 9% false negatives, you have 9.03% chance.
> With vaccination and no test you have 56% chance.
> You are literally 6 times safer working or traveling with unvaccinated person that has been tested 72h ago than with vaccinated person.
> 
> Science is clear here. The policies introduced are anti-science.
> They knowingly endanger Canadians. Government is science-denying


 ... your statistical analysis were amazing until your last paragraph/conclusion. If the government is science-denying, then what do you think they should be promoting? In their interest of course.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> I have tired hard to understand this confused analysis . I give up and go back to the Mayo Clinic analysis that says that among people who get covid the unvaccinated have a much higher risk of being hospitalized. John Hopkins says the the odds of vaccinated people who contact covid is 1 out of 11,000 and the odds are 1 out of 112 wth the unvaccinated. I will accept this over your contorted analysis . You could be right as the Mayo Clinic and JohnHopkins could be lying and be part of the globalists agenda .


You are looking at completely different thing. 
Vaccines do prevent hospitalization. I agree with Mayo Clinic, John Hopkins, et al. 
That is not the question though.

The question is:
are you safer being around vaccinated person without a test or unvaccinated person with a test.
And the answer is the latter.
That's why if the argument is for public safety, then the next move should be to test everyone before entering workplace, plane, etc.
Removing people who are safer to their surroundings than those who are allowed in is counterproductive to public safety


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... your statistical analysis were amazing until your last paragraph/conclusion. If the government is science-denying, then what do you think they should be promoting? In their interest of course.


I don't understand your last question.
Does it mean what should be the actual policy if they wanted to increase public safety? - Testing.


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> You are looking at completely different thing.
> Vaccines do prevent hospitalization. I agree with Mayo Clinic, John Hopkins, et al.
> That is not the question though.
> 
> The question is:
> are you safer being around vaccinated person without a test or unvaccinated person with a test.
> And the answer is the latter.
> That's why if the argument is for public safety, then the next move should be to test everyone before entering workplace, plane, etc.
> Removing people who are safer to their surroundings than those who are allowed in is counterproductive to public safety


A world of constant testing would be a big pain in rear and testing has its problems. As a fully vaccinated person I need to be tested to fly. Rapid tests have a high failure rate. Who will pay for all this ongoing testing for the unvaccinated so they can continue to live in the little world of conspiracy theories.? The unvaccinated are free to make their choice but as we all know their are consequences when you make choices. By not vaccinating themselves they are electing to limit their own freedom. That is their choice. In terms of transmission of covid the overwhelming view of health experts is the unvaccinated creat a much higher risk. Again I am not in a position to disagree with the Mayo Clinic or John Hopkins experts.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> A world of constant testing would be a big pain in rear and testing has its problems. As a fully vaccinated person I need to be tested to fly. Rapid tests have a high failure rate. Who will pay for all this ongoing testing for the unvaccinated so they can continue to live in the little world of conspiracy theories.? The unvaccinated are free to make their choice but as we all know their are consequences when you make choices. By not vaccinating themselves they are electing to limit their own freedom. That is their choice.


Either they pay for it or company pays for it. It is between them and employers.
Although I think for first couple government should pay - equal to the amount that vaccinations saved.
If you want to make workplaces safe from spread though, you should be testing both vaccinated and unvaccinated.

And even rapid tests have lower failure rate than vaccines do, so you are still making environment safer by letting unvaccinated tested people in. There is no basis to segregate people who are safer for their environment and leave those behind who are more of a danger to others.

The entire argument for making everyone's life in past 2 years a pain in the *** is to make society safer.
Now we segregate those who are safer and don't test those who introduce higher risk of infection to the workplace because it would be a pain in the ***?

The choice argument is a bit idiotic here. You are actually not allowing them to make a choice and become safer to their environment.
My entire argument is that they should be allowed to make a choice to become safer to the environment.
They become safer to their environment (and safer than vaccinated people) by getting tested regularly. Yet this is literally the choice you remove from them.


----------



## Spudd

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-vaccine-effectiveness-data-delayed-doses-mixing-matching-covid-19-vaccines-1.6205993


----------



## zinfit

Spudd said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-vaccine-effectiveness-data-delayed-doses-mixing-matching-covid-19-vaccines-1.6205993


The long delays and mixings was a result caused byCanada's initial problems in securing vaccines. This was not a planned experiment. It was a crisis management decision. Fortuatey an unintended consequence was very positive.


----------



## zinfit

zinfit said:


> The long delays and mixings was a result caused byCanada's initial problems in securing vaccines. This was not a planned experiment. It was a crisis management decision. Fortuatey an unintended consequence was very positive.


I do have criticisms for government approval agencies in not recognized real time results. The Israeli real time results fora booster shot is pretty solid and clear. The studies from Canada for mixed vaccinations and long delays between vaccinations is pretty solid and clear. This should be slam a slam dunk for the US CDC and FDA. Will they dodge because they didn't have the right trials and peer review? Sometimes government is the problem not the solution.


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> Sometimes government is the problem not the solution.


Government is almost always the problem, an occasionally it's a solution.


----------



## sags

From the CBC article.....it appears to say there was a deliberate plan to delay the second vaccinations. 

_Dr. Danuta Skowronski, a vaccine effectiveness expert and epidemiology lead at the BCCDC whose research laid the groundwork for the decision to hold back second doses based on the "fundamental principles of vaccinology," says the early data is extremely encouraging. _


----------



## Beaver101

Quebec's nurses order says it will suspend licence for unvaccinated members

From the land of Quebec.


----------



## sags

Saskatchewan is a mess. Their hospitals are full of covid patients and 3,000 patients had their surgeries cancelled.

The situation is described by doctors there as "out of control" and on the verge of collapse.

All of these Provinces that "opened up" too early and refuse restrictions have created a healthcare crisis for their people.

Saskatchewan dropped their mask mandates in July and even in the face of the current situation, refuses to implement restrictions.

It costs $1 million to create 1 ICU bed and requires very specific training for nurses and professionals working in ICU units.

The hospitals can't "create" ICU beds and the necessary professionals out of thin air.

One has to wonder what the goal of the Saskatchewan government is.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> It costs $1 million to create 1 ICU bed and requires very specific training for nurses and professionals working in ICU units.
> 
> The hospitals can't "create" ICU beds and the necessary professionals out of thin air.


But then the government is firing the nurses and healthcare workers.
Something isn't adding up.

Either they desperately need the health care providers to work, or they don't.

They're firing hundreds and thousands of professionals for not vaccinating.
But the lack of vaccination wasn't a problem last year when they worked through the waves?

What's changed?
This is the kind of stuff conspiracy theorists love.

What I think happened is that the government doesnt' want to admit that a vaccine alone won't solve the problem, so they're doubling down, again and again, to a ridiculous level on vaccination. Hoping that they can blame the continued pandemic on "vaccination", rather than the fact that vaccination alone was never going to stop this.

What the conspiracy theorists think is this is a massive power grab.
They want to track everywhere you go, and everything you do. Show papers to travel or perform ordinary interactions.
Disagree with the party line, they'll take your livelihood.

I can't wait till they start raiding houses to seize unvaccinated children.(they might not, the residential school abuses are still too recent)

You couldn't make up a better police state conspiracy plot line if you tried.

Oh, here is something that people aren't talking about.
First Nations are getting hit by COVID19 worse, and are less vaccinated, because they , for obvious reasons, don't really trust the government.
Do you really think increasing authoritarianism and pressure to "do what the white man" tells you is going to help?


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> But then the government is firing the nurses and healthcare workers.
> Something isn't adding up.
> 
> Either they desperately need the health care providers to work, or they don't.
> 
> They're firing hundreds and thousands of professionals for not vaccinating.
> But the lack of vaccination wasn't a problem last year when they worked through the waves?
> 
> What's changed?
> This is the kind of stuff conspiracy theorists love.
> 
> What I think happened is that the government doesnt' want to admit that a vaccine alone won't solve the problem, so they're doubling down, again and again, to a ridiculous level on vaccination. Hoping that they can blame the continued pandemic on "vaccination", rather than the fact that vaccination alone was never going to stop this.
> 
> What the conspiracy theorists think is this is a massive power grab.
> They want to track everywhere you go, and everything you do. Show papers to travel or perform ordinary interactions.
> Disagree with the party line, they'll take your livelihood.
> 
> I can't wait till they start raiding houses to seize unvaccinated children.(they might not, the residential school abuses are still too recent)
> 
> You couldn't make up a better police state conspiracy plot line if you tried.
> 
> Oh, here is something that people aren't talking about.
> First Nations are getting hit by COVID19 worse, and are less vaccinated, because they , for obvious reasons, don't really trust the government.
> Do you really think increasing authoritarianism and pressure to "do what the white man" tells you is going to help?


If I was a patient I would strongly object to having healthcare professionals in that hospital who aren't vaccinated. This is supported by 90% of the nurses and doctors who share the same concern. In NewYork state when faced with losing their high paying jobs and careers most held their noses and were vaccinated at 5 to 12:00. I hope governments don't blink on this


----------



## MrMatt

zinfit said:


> If I was a patient I would strongly object to having healthcare professionals in that hospital who aren't vaccinated. This is supported by 90% of the nurses and doctors who share the same concern. In NewYork state when faced with losing their high paying jobs and careers most held their noses and were vaccinated at 5 to 12:00. I hope governments don't blink on this


Well the question is why would you "strongly object".

Is it because you are concerned about the risk of exposure?
Do you have data that shows unvaccinated people spread more than vaccinated people.

Is it because you are concerned that they have poor judgement?
Without knowing their specific medical condition, you are unable to determine if they have poor judgement or not.


Myself I think almost everyone should be vaccinated, but I don't support governments regulating womens bodies (or mens or any other gender).


----------



## zinfit

The anti-vaxxers are very creative in creating fictional misinformation. The one circulating now is the Delta variant is a mutation that came from people who were vaccinated. I haven't found any reputable research that supports that statement.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> The anti-vaxxers are very creative in creating fictional misinformation. The one circulating now is the Delta variant is a mutation that came from people who were vaccinated. I haven't found any reputable research that supports that statement.


Social media gives an easy method to create fiction and spread it around. The only legit criticisms of the vaccines that I can think of are

(a) there are some serious adverse effects, sometimes ... but this has to be balanced against the harm of catching COVID
(b) vaccines don't prevent all cases, and *there are* breakthrough cases ... but all data shows that they still significantly reduce the chance of serious COVID


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> Social media gives an easy method to create fiction and spread it around. The only legit criticisms of the vaccines that I can think of are
> 
> (a) there are some serious adverse effects, sometimes ... but this has to be balanced against the harm of catching COVID
> (b) vaccines don't prevent all cases, and *there are* breakthrough cases ... but all data shows that they still significantly reduce the chance of serious COVID


They play a game of half truths and emotional one offs. The Delta variant started showing up in India in October 2020 and most major vaccination programs didn't start until January of 2021 and I suspect much later in India. May-be there was a time machine that secretly moved the mRNA vaccines to India in September of 2020?


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> Social media gives an easy method to create fiction and spread it around. The only legit criticisms of the vaccines that I can think of are
> 
> (a) there are some serious adverse effects, sometimes ... but this has to be balanced against the harm of catching COVID


Almost been 2 years and I am as high risk as it gets in terms of contracting it. I have been very open on this forum about my opinion and life. For someone who takes 0 precautions and breaks almost every rule...

I find my experience to be of more value than "what other people say".

I live in a city with 600k people. I also travel between cities. Go to work. Date new people. Hang with friends. Rent AirBNBs. Go to restaurants. Etc.

And somehow I just don't think your "a)" point has much validation.

You have a real world person here (me) who is at high risk and has been since the beginning. And yet... You still think taking a shot that is GUARANTEED to interact with your body is better than no shot at all?

I just understand why anyone would purposefully inject themselves. If you're 65+, then maybe. I get it. But otherwise, it makes no sense.


----------



## KaeJS

MrMatt said:


> But then the government is firing the nurses and healthcare workers.
> Something isn't adding up.
> 
> Either they desperately need the health care providers to work, or they don't.
> 
> They're firing hundreds and thousands of professionals for not vaccinating.
> But the lack of vaccination wasn't a problem last year when they worked through the waves?
> 
> What's changed?
> This is the kind of stuff conspiracy theorists love.


Oh, you're right, all right.

Something(s) are not adding up.

It only takes a strong person with a strong mind to see this. Take a look around you. People are not dying in the streets. You've got like 20 people out of 38,000,000 dying in a day.

Big. Deal.
This is life.
Your wife or husband or mother or father could die in a car accident tomorrow. Nobody is saying it ISN'T tragic. It is. But that is life.

You can't just sit and hide and waste your life being afraid. What kind of life is that, anyway?


----------



## KaeJS

Remember when that woman (and who the f(_)CK was she again?) said that if you're going to have sex you should wear a mask?

LOL.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> If I was a patient I would strongly object to having healthcare professionals in that hospital who aren't vaccinated. This is supported by 90% of the nurses and doctors who share the same concern. In NewYork state when faced with losing their high paying jobs and careers most held their noses and were vaccinated at 5 to 12:00. I hope governments don't blink on this


Factually speaking, you are safer with tested nurse than with vaccinated nurse.
Why not allow them to do testing and be safer for their patient, and avoid staffing shortages? Ideally test everyone to keep patients as safe as possible.
This is logical solution and results in much greater protection to the patients than current actions.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Factually speaking, you are safer with tested nurse than with vaccinated nurse.
> Why not allow them to do testing and be safer for their patient, and avoid staffing shortages? Ideally test everyone to keep patients as safe as possible.
> This is logical solution and results in much greater protection to the patients than current actions.


Because the government would have to admit that they were lying when they said that a vaccine will solve all ills.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario hospitals seeing low rates of staff losses to mandatory vaccine policies

Good to see "Ontario" healthcare workers in its hospitals actually care about the "patients", if not their own jobs.


----------



## Beaver101

Several Ontario hospitals enact mandatory vaccination policies for visitors

Makes absolute sense.


----------



## Beaver101

York public school board threatens to suspend teacher who wore respirator instead of blue surgical mask in class

This is the dumbest @@##xx! policy I have ever heard. What a waste of tax-payers $$$ spent on education board administrators trying to "police masks" when there's a "real job" to be done first.

Where's flip-flopping Lecce (or now playing stupid-dumb-and-deaf) when needed? Time to cut down these over-bloated assinined in-office administrators.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> Ontario hospitals seeing low rates of staff losses to mandatory vaccine policies
> 
> Good to see "Ontario" healthcare workers in its hospitals actually care about the "patients", if not their own jobs.


You say that like they didn't fight against mandatory vaccine policies.

I think what actually happened is that someone in Government made some not so subtle threats to the healthcare unions. This flipflop doesn't really line up with their previous actions.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario seems to be doing good lately. Schools open for 6 weeks and cases have been falling steadily. Interested to see the impact of 20,000 gathering at Leafs and Raptors games.

also hearing that Ontario is set to remove most capacity restrictions. Either tomorrow or early next week.


----------



## sags

All we need in Ontario is for Doug Ford to stay underground.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> You say that like they didn't fight against mandatory vaccine policies.


 ... not sure what's your point here? 



> I think what actually happened is that someone in Government made some not so subtle threats to the healthcare unions. This flipflop doesn't really line up with their previous actions.


 ... from the article:



> _Several Ontario hospitals have placed staff on unpaid leave or terminated them due to mandatory COVID-19 vaccination policies, but they say the* numbers are relatively low and won't affect patient care.*
> 
> A spokesman for* Cambridge Memorial Hospital said 51 staff members who either haven't been vaccinated or won't share their status have been placed on leave.*
> 
> “Because it is a low number and it is spread across corporate and clinical services that we are confident there will be no impacts to patient care,” Stephan Beckhoff said in a statement.
> 
> *St. Mary's General Hospital expects to put around 30 staff members on unpaid leave* Wednesday.
> 
> *Hotel-Dieu Grace Healthcare in Windsor, Ont., said it terminated 24 employees with c*ause last week, and since that *amounts to just two per cent of its workforce it is well able to fill gaps to cover schedules.*
> 
> “We developed contingency plans well in advance of the policy deadline including the two-week unpaid suspension of employees who were not complying with the policy at that time,” spokesman Bill Marra said in a written statement.
> 
> “With a 98 per cent compliance rate at the deadline, *we are very much able to accommodate all gaps in our schedules by increasing work hours through our part-time work force and when necessary, overtime hours for some employees.”
> 
> There has been no impact on the delivery of programs and services, he said.*
> 
> The 24 employees include eight registered practical nurses, five registered nurses, as well as environmental service workers, rehab assistants, administrative staff and others.
> 
> The *Wellington Health Care Allianc*e will put two per cent of its staff who haven't received a first dose on leave Wednesday. *It amounts to 14 people over three sites and a spokeswoman said they don't expect any disruptions to hospital services or programs*.
> 
> Many more hospitals have set mandatory vaccination deadlines of Oct. 15 or 31, as well as a few other dates.
> 
> A spokeswoman for Health Minister Christine Elliott said the government has put more than $52 million toward recruiting, retaining and supporting more than 3,700 front-line health-care workers and recently announced $61 million for recruiting and retaining nurse._
> 
> ...


 ... have yet to see the numbers for Toronto hospitals but not expecting the un-vaccinated number to be substantial so as to to disrupt patient care.


----------



## damian13ster

Quebec decided not to lose 600 hospital beds and 35 operating rooms. Smart


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... not sure what's your point here?


Your statement suggested you think vaccination correlates with caring for patients. I pointed out that until COVID19 the healthcare unions were against mandatory vaccinations. 
If getting vaccinated means "they care", then their history of fighting mandatory vaccinations suggests the unions actually don't care.


----------



## sags

The carrot didn't work. It is time for the stick.


----------



## damian13ster

‘They walked away from health care’: Okanagan care home workers suddenly quit over vaccine mandate | Globalnews.ca


Hendrik Van Ryk of The Hamlets said the quality of care is declining as residential care workers are stretched thin.




globalnews.ca





As you wish. The stick is slapping seniors.

Hopefully workers finally realizing they are the ones who hold the power. At company I work for over 25% simply refused to share personal information. 
Significant portion were those who got vaccinated but refused to show the records.
Of course in this situation no one got let go. Company just bought tests for anyone who refused to provide personal health data.


----------



## diharv

This picking on the health care workers needs to stop.They know whaat they are doing and they know the risks. The focus needs to be on getting non health care worker average joe idiot vaccinated.


----------



## damian13ster

diharv said:


> This picking on the health care workers needs to stop.They know whaat they are doing and they know the risks. The focus needs to be on getting non health care worker average joe idiot vaccinated.


The health care workers are also in the best position to show the government a middle finger. They know there isn't a line-up of people trying to replace them, and they know that they will find employment whenever and wherever they want.
Unfortunately the only ones government is hurting are seniors and patients. But until their voters such as sags are happy with seniors and patients suffering, the government will make them suffer. That's how politics work


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> The health care workers are also in the best position to show the government a middle finger. They know there isn't a line-up of people trying to replace them, and they know that they will find employment whenever and wherever they want.
> Unfortunately the only ones government is hurting are seniors and patients. But until their voters such as sags are happy with seniors and patients suffering, the government will make them suffer. That's how politics work


You shouldn't have to lose your job to exercise basic human rights.


----------



## Beaver101

Transplant programs reviewing policy on recipients being vaccinated against COVID-19



> ... The Ajmera Transplant Centre at Toronto's University Health Network recently announced its decision to implement a policy that requires patients who may benefit from receiving a transplant be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before they are listed for solid organ transplant.
> 
> However, there may be exemptions for medical reasons or in cases of urgent need of a transplant.
> 
> *"We all recognize that (COVID-19) is a massive, massive risk factor. The prudent and ethical thing to do to protect patients and to protect each other, and show fidelity and respect to those organ donors, is to require this (policy) to be a price of pass and go," *UHN president and chief executive officer Kevin Smith said in an interview. ...


 ... only fair.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Your statement suggested you think vaccination correlates with caring for patients. I pointed out that until COVID19 the healthcare unions were against mandatory vaccinations.
> If getting vaccinated means "they care", then their history of fighting mandatory vaccinations suggests the unions actually don't care.


 ... always injecting political points. You do realize "patients, the human type" can include healthcare workers too, no?


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> You shouldn't have to lose your job to exercise basic human rights.


You shouldn't have to risk your health and your families health by working beside someone who doesn't care about the risk.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> You shouldn't have to risk your health and your families health by working beside someone who doesn't care about the risk.


You don't care about science.
Science is clear - you are safer working with someone unvaccinated and tested than with someone vaccinated and untested. Science is clear on that yet you deny science


----------



## sags

Testing is unreliable.

Testing isn't stopping the un-vaxxed from filling up hospitals and dying. People test negative boarding a flight and positive when they arrive.

Anywhere there is a low vaccination rate is a disaster.

Putting too much faith in testing is a problem. Testing isn't equivalent to vaccinations.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Testing is unreliable.
> 
> Testing isn't stopping the un-vaxxed from filling up hospitals and dying. People test negative boarding a flight and positive when they arrive.
> 
> Anywhere there is a low vaccination rate is a disaster.
> 
> Putting too much faith in testing is a problem. Testing isn't equivalent to vaccinations.


You are wrong.

Science shows that testing reliability is much higher than vaccine efficacy in stopping infections.
It isn't an opinion. It is scientific fact. You can choose to deny science, just admit that you don't care about science or facts.


----------



## sags

The "testing" theory was already tried in Saskatchewan and Alberta, and the results are obvious.

They have a healthcare disaster that is only getting worse. Give it up already.


----------



## sags

The Quebec healthcare workers have a month to get vaccinated but that is it. 

The deadline won't be extended, so victory claimed by the un-vaxxed will be short lived.

The Quebec regulators say the nurses and doctors who refuse vaccination will lose their license to practice in the Province.

Maybe they can move to Alberta or Saskatchewan where the government puts ideology ahead of public safety.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Putting too much faith in testing is a problem. Testing isn't equivalent to vaccinations.


You're right, but putting too much faith in vaccination is also a problem.
Vaccination doesn't stop the spread.

FYI, when you get COVID from someone, it doesn't matter if they're vaxxed or not, you still got COVID.


Secondly while I support vaccination more than most, I support peoples right to choose.
Remember of the 3 vaccines approved by the Canadian government
One is now effectively banned due to health risks. (AZ)
A second is not "not recommended" for certain groups (Moderna)

So 2/3 of the "safe" vaccines aren't "safe" anymore.

While I support vaccination, and I think that everyone should get vaccinated, even with AZ and Moderna (because the government is being outrageously cautious). I think that people should decide for themselves.

Think about it, the same government that wants to force vaccination, is flip flopping on if the vaccinations are safe, they're safe one day, and 'too dangerous" the next, and they want to force people to take them? That's simply not reasonable.


Again the risks of Pfizer, Moderna and AZ are so low I would personally take any of them. But I don't think the government should make that choice for you.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> You shouldn't have to risk your health and your families health by working beside someone who doesn't care about the risk.


I completely agree, I shouldn't have to take a vaccine administered by someone who doesn't' care about the risk it poses.

It's important to note that even people who were hospitalized due to negative reactions with the COVID19 are not permitted to get a medical exemption.

I agree with the logic of killing a few people with negative vaccine reactions to protect everyone else. I think it's good logic, however it's an immoral violation of human rights to actively harm and kill a few citizens to save many more.


----------



## sags

Watched some of the Toronto hockey game last night.

They might as well forget about the wearing a mask part, because most people weren't wearing them.

Pack a bunch of people into close quarters inside during a deadly pandemic and see what happens ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Watched some of the Toronto hockey game last night.
> 
> They might as well forget about the wearing a mask part, because most people weren't wearing them.
> 
> Pack a bunch of people into close quarters inside during a deadly pandemic and see what happens ?


Why would they?
The government says if you're vaccinated, there's no problem.

Then they blame all the problems on the "unvaxxed", and everyone can be happy.

Scapegoats are always convenient for those in power.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Why would they?
> The government says if you're vaccinated, there's no problem.
> 
> Then they blame all the problems on the "unvaxxed", and everyone can be happy.
> 
> Scapegoats are always convenient for those in power.


There is an indoor mask mandate so I’m not sure the government is saying there is no problem. People are taking advantage by claiming The mask is off while they eat and drink.

personally, I think mask mandates in vaccinated situations should be dropped all together if capacity limits remain in place. Ie. if There are less than xx of amount of people and everyone is vaxxed, then no mask is needed.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> There is an indoor mask mandate so I’m not sure the government is saying there is no problem. People are taking advantage by claiming The mask is off while they eat and drink.
> 
> *personally, I think mask mandates in vaccinated situations should be dropped all together if capacity limits remain in place. Ie. if There are less than xx of amount of people and everyone is vaxxed, then no mask is needed.*


 ... then don't be surprised to see news of an outbreak at one of these venues or the daily-reported infection number (above 500 for Ontario) to spike.


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> ... then don't be surprised to see news of an outbreak at one of these venues or the daily-reported infection number (above 500 for Ontario) to spike.


So when does mask wearing end? If the experts agree that Covid is here to stay…..when do we lose the masks. It’s not that I absolutely hate them, but 4 people playing darts or cards who are all vaccinated is low risk to me. Our region sees about 10-15 cases a day.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> So when does mask wearing end? If the experts agree that Covid is here to stay…..when do we lose the masks. It’s not that I absolutely hate them, but 4 people playing darts or cards who are all vaccinated is low risk to me. Our region sees about 10-15 cases a day.


I think the mask thing will likely fade out.
In some places masks were relatively "normal"

I think COVID will always be here, because Coronaviruses have always been here. they're really tough to kill, we just now have a somewhat effective vaccine, and it doesn't really stop the spread.


----------



## sags

I hope not, because eventually they will create a mutation that renders the vaccines useless.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> I hope not, because eventually they will create a mutation that renders the vaccines useless.


Other theory is that it will mutute weaker.


----------



## 307169

deleted


----------



## 307169

Money172375 said:


> Other theory is that it will mutute weaker.


Which is what happen with Spanish flu, where its decedents is still with us today.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Other theory is that it will mutute weaker.


Evolution favours traits that lead to survival, generally viruses mutate to survive. 
A virus that doesn't kill it's host, or kills the host slower has more opportunity to spread.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> So when does mask wearing end? If the experts agree that Covid is here to stay…..when do we lose the masks.


 ... when public health says so. I think a good gauge for my area (Toronto) as to when it's not needed (mandated) is on public transit.



> It’s not that I absolutely hate them, but 4 people playing darts or cards who are all vaccinated is low risk to me. Our region sees about 10-15 cases a day.


 ... that is a private gathering where no one is a stranger so no need for a mask then.

This is a completely different setting than a baseball/hockey stadium game (as mentioned by sags in post #6722 which triggered this discussion) with thousands of spectators=strangers.


----------



## sags

Saskatchewan is moving ICU patients to Ontario and asking the federal government for help.

A doctor was on CBC saying the healthcare system is completely collapsing, the virus isn't slowing down, and 30-40 patients may have to be moved.

The doctor said the situation should have been addressed months ago, but political ideology was put ahead of healthcare.

Political ideology over healthcare ? We need to stay vigilant and adhere to restrictions. This pandemic isn't over yet.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Saskatchewan is moving ICU patients to Ontario and asking the federal government for help.
> 
> A doctor was on CBC saying the healthcare system is completely collapsing, the virus isn't slowing down, and 30-40 patients may have to be moved.
> 
> The doctor said the situation should have been addressed months ago, but political ideology was put ahead of healthcare.
> 
> Political ideology over healthcare ? We need to stay vigilant and adhere to restrictions. This pandemic isn't over yet.


I blame the politicians for overpromising, under delivering, and rather than trying to solve the problem, are making it MORE political.


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> ... when public health says so. I think a good gauge for my area (Toronto) as to when it's not needed (mandated) is on public transit.
> 
> ... that is a private gathering where no one is a stranger so no need for a mask then.
> 
> This is a completely different setting than a baseball/hockey stadium game (as mentioned by sags in post #6722 which triggered this discussion) with thousands of spectators=strangers.


How do you define a private gathering? I live in a HOA with a community centre. Is the daily card game private? or public? I’ve never seen any rule around with that language. I always assumed it’s masks on everywhere indoors except for at home.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> How do you define a private gathering?


 ... as said earlier "no one is a stranger". Or by "my definition" - a get-together of you know who.



> I live in a HOA with a community centre. Is the daily card game private? or public?


 ... I don't have ESP to read your mind that you live in a HOA with a community centre to spare. Based on your "initial" post, I would have assumed you (or your best friend) hosted the game over at your s (or his) place with your other best friend, buddy, cousin and/or neighbour. And I would have assumed you knew or know everyone at the table - at least by names? Especially it's a "daily" game ... and possiby with a teddy-bear prize.



> I’ve never seen any rule around with that language. I always assumed it’s masks on everywhere indoors except for at home.


 ... now that you reminded me, seriously, have your HOA board not gone over / come up with the "rules" (aka legal language) on the use of common areas/facilities around your HOA/community centre ... by now?

As said, I don't see a concern with 4 known (aka I know you and you know me) people around a table playing a game or whatever without their mask on. Besides, I'm sure there'll be drinks and pretzels on the table so then what's the point of being masked?

And then you were complaining about having to "mask" all the time - so by all means I'm not against that. Ie. your assumption above is "better to be safe than sorry" is the use of common sense to me.


----------



## Beaver101

Saskatchewan premier apologizes to those left without health care due to COVID-19

So is Premier Moe taking a page from PM Justin with these "I'm sorry(s)" .... a dime by the dozen.


----------



## Money172375

DeltaPlus On the way?









New COVID-19 mutation of Delta variant under close watch in U.K.


If Delta Plus is elevated to a ‘variant under investigation’, the World Health Organization will assign it a Greek letter under its naming system




www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> So when does mask wearing end? If the experts agree that Covid is here to stay…..when do we lose the masks. It’s not that I absolutely hate them, but 4 people playing darts or cards who are all vaccinated is low risk to me. Our region sees about 10-15 cases a day.


When I get together indoors with 1 or 2 friends or family (I have never exceeded 2 during the pandemic), if we're all vaccinated and everyone is feeling fine (no symptoms), there are no masks.

If I was feeling unwell, or knew that anyone else was, I wouldn't even meet with them.

Tomorrow I plan to meet with a friend who's over age 70. Having drinks together, I won't be wearing a mask. The bars here require proof of vaccination, so I know he's vaccinated. The region currently has low COVID rates so I don't see any risk in hanging out without a mask.

But I would adapt based on conditions. If this region had higher COVID rates, I would not meet like this. I also wouldn't do a gathering of 5 people.

I recommend using the microCOVID tool to get a rough estimate of COVID risk in different situations. It can help you calibrate your risk-taking


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario releasing plan to eventually exit Step 3 of COVID-19 reopening plan on Friday

Hope Ford and the medical team he consulted with are correct ... Ontario is on a projectory path of diminishing Covid and that we're winning this pandemic with the resumption of travel (international and domestic).


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> Ontario releasing plan to eventually exit Step 3 of COVID-19 reopening plan on Friday
> 
> Hope Ford and the medical team he consulted with are correct ... Ontario is on a projectory path of diminishing Covid and that we're winning this pandemic with the resumption of travel (international and domestic).


Ontario is doing well. Schools open for about 7 weeks and cases continue to fall. No real new measures the last few months. I guess it‘s all vaccines and the tried and true methods (masks).


----------



## bgc_fan

Money172375 said:


> Ontario is doing well. Schools open for about 7 weeks and cases continue to fall. No real new measures the last few months. I guess it‘s all vaccines and the tried and true methods (masks).


I think the key is that there was a gradual relaxation of measures rather than implementation of new. Keeping the measures in place means that you give more time for people to get vaccinated and increase the rate of vaccination. The remaining restrictions are really capacity limits and public masking. I imagine there may be a time when there will no longer be a requirement for public masking, but I will bet that there will be some who will wear them. Plus with the "vaccine passport", you're reducing the covid risk in the places that require them, like restaurants, or sporting venues.


----------



## Beaver101

^ With the flu season upon us, I'm all for masks than the shots. And I wouldn't be surprised employers will be calling in their employees to the office sooner than later.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Ontario is doing well. Schools open for about 7 weeks and cases continue to fall. No real new measures the last few months. I guess it‘s all vaccines and the tried and true methods (masks).


Kids consistently wear masks, and don't seem to spread COVID, despite 0% vaccination rates.


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> Ontario releasing plan to eventually exit Step 3 of COVID-19 reopening plan on Friday
> 
> Hope Ford and the medical team he consulted with are correct ... Ontario is on a projectory path of diminishing Covid and that we're winning this pandemic with the resumption of travel (international and domestic).


 ... before we get a breather. I hope Ford is paying attention as Mississauga is right next to Etobicoke too,

Six neighbourhoods with low vaccination rates may be behind spike in hospital admissions in Mississauga


----------



## Spudd

MrMatt said:


> Kids consistently wear masks, and don't seem to spread COVID, despite 0% vaccination rates.


I believe this is a misconception.









Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview


COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.




www.webmd.com


----------



## james4beach

Spudd said:


> I believe this is a misconception.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview
> 
> 
> COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.webmd.com


Yeah, the current thinking is that children DO catch covid, and spread it as well. The article below describes how we initially thought that children were not a disease vector, but it's just because schools and extracurricular activities were halted.

Here's a detailed page at the CDC on school children with references to published studies and journal papers throughout. Children are infected just as much as adults; apparently even more than those age 50+. And yes, they are transmitting it to others.



> In the United States through March 2021, the estimated cumulative rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 symptomatic illness in children ages 5-17 years were comparable to infection and symptomatic illness rates in adults ages 18-49 and higher than rates in adults ages 50 and older.
> . . .
> *Children and adolescents can also transmit SARS-CoV-2 infection to others.* Early during the COVID-19 pandemic, children were not commonly identified as index cases in household or other clusters largely because schools and extracurricular activities around the world were closed or no longer held in-person. However, outbreaks among adolescents attending camps, sports events, and schools have demonstrated that adolescents can transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. Furthermore, transmission studies that have examined secondary infection risk from children and adolescents to household contacts who are rapidly, frequently, and systematically tested demonstrate that transmission does occur.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario’s plan to cancel Covid restrictions….


----------



## MrMatt

Spudd said:


> I believe this is a misconception.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview
> 
> 
> COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.webmd.com


Kids don't wear masks at homes. So of COURSE they're likely to spread it at home.

I however was talking about kids wearing masks at schools, and that being a contributing factor to the lack of spread at schools.


The idea that kids don't spread COVID at schools is well documented by the data that
1. There are relatively few COVID outbreaks at schools.
2. Asymptomatic testing at schools showed a lower positivity rate than in the general population.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Yeah, the current thinking is that children DO catch covid, and spread it as well. The article below describes how we initially thought that children were not a disease vector, but it's just because schools and extracurricular activities were halted.
> 
> Here's a detailed page at the CDC on school children with references to published studies and journal papers throughout. Children are infected just as much as adults; apparently even more than those age 50+. And yes, they are transmitting it to others.


I didn't notice if they referenced the Ontario school study.
Which actually went to schools and tested the kids.

But more importantly the CDC study states the following.

"When a combination of effective prevention strategies is implemented and strictly adhered to in the K-12 in-person learning environment,* the risk of transmission in the school setting appears to be lower than or equivalent to the transmission risk in other community settings.*"


A study of 11 school districts in North Carolina with in-person learning for at least nine weeks during the fall 2020 semester reported minimal school-related transmission even while community transmission was high.38 These schools implemented and strictly adhered to multiple prevention strategies, including universal mask use and physical distancing. Breaches in mask use likely explained the few instances of in-school spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Basically if the kids just wear their masks and distance properly, there is *minimal school related transmission*.
In short the current thinking is that kids, wearing masks etc at school are NOT spreading COVID19.

And that's WITHOUT vaccines, because the government hasn't approved them.

If you want to stop COVID19, jsut put on your freaking mask. If a 10yr old can do it, so can you.


In short, unvaccinated kids at schools, wearing masks, don't seem to spread COVID. That's what YOUR CDC study says.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> I didn't notice if they referenced the Ontario school study.
> Which actually went to schools and tested the kids.
> 
> But more importantly the CDC study states the following.
> 
> "When a combination of effective prevention strategies is implemented and strictly adhered to in the K-12 in-person learning environment,* the risk of transmission in the school setting appears to be lower than or equivalent to the transmission risk in other community settings.*"
> 
> 
> A study of 11 school districts in North Carolina with in-person learning for at least nine weeks during the fall 2020 semester reported minimal school-related transmission even while community transmission was high.38 These schools implemented and strictly adhered to multiple prevention strategies, including universal mask use and physical distancing. Breaches in mask use likely explained the few instances of in-school spread of SARS-CoV-2.
> Basically if the kids just wear their masks and distance properly, there is *minimal school related transmission*.
> In short the current thinking is that kids, wearing masks etc at school are NOT spreading COVID19.
> 
> And that's WITHOUT vaccines, because the government hasn't approved them.
> 
> If you want to stop COVID19, jsut put on your freaking mask. If a 10yr old can do it, so can you.
> 
> 
> In short, unvaccinated kids at schools, wearing masks, don't seem to spread COVID. That's what YOUR CDC study says.


I wonder if the warmer weather in the US skews this data……I bet they have windows and doors open more so than in Canada. Unless they’re all closed to keep the guns out.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> I wonder if the warmer weather in the US skews this data……I bet they have windows and doors open more so than in Canada. Unless they’re all closed to keep the guns out.


Skews it how?
The Ontario study and the studies referenced in this CDC study are consistent that schools with masks and other measures aren't spreading COVID.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Skews it how?
> The Ontario study and the studies referenced in this CDC study are consistent that schools with masks and other measures aren't spreading COVID.


I would just think that there is less spread in indoor areas where climates allow for open windows.


----------



## Money172375

I don’t think school cases are large, but I think the data is somewhat misleading. I don’t see any data on “classrooms“ closed. I can only find “schools closed”. My friend is a teacher and 60% of the Classes on the 2nd floor have been closed due to a single case in each class. The school remains open.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> I don’t think school cases are large, but I think the data is somewhat misleading. I don’t see any data on “classrooms“ closed. I can only find “schools closed”. My friend is a teacher and 60% of the Classes on the 2nd floor have been closed due to a single case in each class. The school remains open.


Here they report cases per school.

It's typically only a small number of cases at any particular school.

Interestingly at one point we had 29 cases in 15 schools, but it turns out that was 1 school with 14 cases, the rest with just 1 or two cases obviously.

This trend continues.





COVID-19 Alerts







www.tvdsb.ca





I think they were closing a classroom if it had 2 or 3 cases in it. 


The reality from the data is that kid in schools aren't spreading COVID much.
Either it's because they're kids, or it's something about mask wearing.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Basically if the kids just wear their masks and distance properly, there is *minimal school related transmission*.
> In short the current thinking is that kids, wearing masks etc at school are NOT spreading COVID19.
> 
> And that's WITHOUT vaccines, because the government hasn't approved them.
> 
> If you want to stop COVID19, jsut put on your freaking mask. If a 10yr old can do it, so can you.


Very interesting, thanks.

I haven't looked into the evidence behind what you're saying, but it sounds very sensible to me: wearing masks and keeping sufficient distance at school seems like it should be enough to keep low transmission rates.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Very interesting, thanks.
> 
> I haven't looked into the evidence behind what you're saying, but it sounds very sensible to me: wearing masks and keeping sufficient distance at school seems like it should be enough to keep low transmission rates.


I know we almost completely disagree on politics and the relevant interpretations, but the basis of my position is very clear in that CDC report.


----------



## sags

In Alberta the contact tracers say parents don't want to tell the schools when their kids are sick.

There has been very little follow up contact tracing going on, perpetuating the spread of the infection.

The Alberta government is trying to ramp up contact tracing again.

I wonder if we have the same information deficit in Ontario, because I doubt our kids are any different than in Alberta.

_She said she doesn't feel like her work is helping to slow the spread of COVID-19, because contact tracers no longer notify close contacts to ensure they don't spread the virus. 

*"I have had parents tell me they won't be telling schools … they don't want their kids to be ostracized.*

"It's not something that parents should be doing. It should be something that people who are trained should be doing. But it's not."_



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/contact-tracing-1.6218381


----------



## sags

The virus is spreading in schools. Ten new cases in schools and an outbreak reported Thursday night in our public school board.

The numbers don't include cases in the Catholic school board or private schools.

This number of students may appear small, but the people who came in contact with them could number into several hundred people.

I believe those people are expected to self quarantine for two weeks, but am not sure on what those rules are now.

Experts say that infections in schools will spread through the immediate neighborhoods.

_There are now 36 active COVID-19 cases within 28 Thames Valley schools. 

“Thames Valley wishes to assure the community that all staff, parents and guardians of the school communities were immediately notified,” a statement from the school board read.

Additionally, the TVDSB said letters will be sent out to families identified as close contacts of the affected individuals by either the Middlesex London Health Unit or Southwestern Public Health._









Ten London-area public schools report new COVID-19 cases


The number of new COVID-19 cases reported in Thames Valley schools jumped up significantly on Thursday.




blackburnnews.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The virus is spreading in schools. Ten new cases in schools and an outbreak reported Thursday night in our public school board.


1 case in a school isn't evidence of it spreading.
Spreading is when 1 person gives it to another person, so you need to have at least 2 people in the same school to claim it's spreading.

Sure there is COVID19 in schools, but nearly all the data shows that with masking and other measures the spread in schools is less than in the general population.

The question is if you're trolling, or simply blinded by your agenda, whatever it is.


----------



## sags

First paragraph in the article.

_The number of *new COVID-19 cases* reported in Thames Valley schools *jumped up significantly on Thursday.*

In a release issued by the Thames Valley District School Board late Thursday evening, *a total of 10 schools in the London-area reported one or more new cases of COVID-19, and one school declared an outbreak.*_


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> In Alberta the contact tracers say parents don't want to tell the schools when their kids are sick.
> 
> There has been very little follow up contact tracing going on, perpetuating the spread of the infection.
> 
> The Alberta government is trying to ramp up contact tracing again.
> 
> I wonder if we have the same information deficit in Ontario, because I doubt our kids are any different than in Alberta.
> , the boards and schools asked parents to voluntarily report cases.
> _She said she doesn't feel like her work is helping to slow the spread of COVID-19, because contact tracers no longer notify close contacts to ensure they don't spread the virus.
> 
> *"I have had parents tell me they won't be telling schools … they don't want their kids to be ostracized.*
> 
> "It's not something that parents should be doing. It should be something that people who are trained should be doing. But it's not."_
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/contact-tracing-1.6218381


You be missing the context in Alberta and misinterpreting the article and focusing on the wrong parts.

Alberta got rid or all contact tracing in the summer (stupid idea). For schools, the boards and schools asked parents to voluntarily report cases. since the beginning, there has been a hesitancy from many people to volunteer this information. The line you bolded HAS ALWAS BEEN THE CASE . It should not be up to the individual to be forced in a position to disclose their medical history. 

The point of the article is to highlight that now they brought back contact tracing in Alberta, the tracers are understaffed and the workload is too much try and catch up. The point isn’t that parents dont want to disclose, this is not news.

Alos, again, there is still very little evidence that the cases are spread in school. Kids are more likely to get it from friends at private gatherings or upside of school activities. In school, there has been very limited spread. Unvaccinated grades are still coherted, socially distanced, wear masks, and if there are any symptom sent home. Its usually the after school gatherings. 

Before the vaccine mandate, I would have even said sports and after curricular acticities could be a problem. Now, most of the activities that have any indoor component is even requiring 12+ to get vaccinated to get into the building. So anti vaxxer parents are faced with pulling their kids out of activities they love and not being able to watch or getting vaccinated. sthis wa sjust a side note on how kids are not necessarily the culprits to spread.


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> First paragraph in the article.
> 
> _The number of *new COVID-19 cases* reported in Thames Valley schools *jumped up significantly on Thursday.*
> 
> In a release issued by the Thames Valley District School Board late Thursday evening, *a total of 10 schools in the London-area reported one or more new cases of COVID-19, and one school declared an outbreak.*_


just because there are a number of new places reported at the school, doesn’t mean it spread there. Last year, the three high schools near me ended up with an 10-20 cases each. It wasn’t spread in the school, it was because some stupid kid had a party with 140 kids there, and there were almost 70 cases that came from that party and then went to school. There was no further or minimal spread becuase they ended up send in the classes on line.


----------



## damian13ster

Lockdown in Spain has been determined unconstitutional and all fines have to be refunded by the government to citizens and businesses.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> First paragraph in the article.
> 
> _The number of *new COVID-19 cases* reported in Thames Valley schools *jumped up significantly on Thursday.*
> 
> In a release issued by the Thames Valley District School Board late Thursday evening, *a total of 10 schools in the London-area reported one or more new cases of COVID-19, and one school declared an outbreak.*_


The number of pokemon cards at Thames Valley schools jumped up significantly over the last month.

That doesn't mean the pokemon cards are breeding at the school.
Like the link I posted, most of the schools only had a single case, if there is only 1 case at the ENTIRE school, maybe the logical assumption is they caught COVID someplace other than the school?


----------



## sags

The number of children infected and in the hospitals is rising in Saskatchewan. The virus is being transmitted there in schools.

_Saskatchewan NDP education critic Carla Beck pointed to the record-high pediatric hospitalizations and accused Premier Scott Moe and Education Minister Dustin Duncan of minimizing the risk COVID-19 poses to children.

“With a record number of kids in our hospitals today, it’s clear that they’re not safe,” Beck told reporters during a Friday news conference.

She also pointed to the* COVID-19 transmission happening in schools*, which Shahab attributed earlier this week to 23 per cent of all school-aged cases._









Sask. hits record number of kids in hospital with COVID-19


A Sask. doctor also reported the three COVID-19 deaths in the under 19 age group since the start of the pandemic were under the age of 12.




leaderpost.com


----------



## sags

Trudeau is sending some military to Saskatchewan to help out in the ICU's.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The number of children infected and in the hospitals is rising in Saskatchewan. The virus is being transmitted there in schools.


Maybe because they just introduced a mask mandate a month ago?



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/school-required-masking-self-isolation-vaccination-1.6179900



I'm not surprised having kids, sit for hours, unmasked, in classrooms spread COVID19. 
Wearing masks is the single most effective preventative action we can take, and everyone (except Dr Tam) knew this from the beginning.

As I've said before, and the CDC says, and Ontario testing shows, kids at schools, wearing masks etc aren't spreading COVID.

But kids who aren't wearing masks, and ignoring the other measures (ie large parties) are spreading COVID19. 

I understand you don't want kids in schools, but the data, from the beginning, has shown that masked kids in schools, following proper protocols have some of the lowest rates of COVID19, often at lower rates than the surrounding population.


----------



## sags

The kids in Ontario remove their masks to eat lunch and I am sure at other times during the day.

The Delta variants is too infectious to count on masking and minor distancing (if that happens at all).

Besides, unless the kids are wearing N95 masks, the virus penetrates masks easily.

As the kids are locked inside over the winter, I have no doubt the virus will spread more rapidly in schools.

It is an airborne infection that travels in the air currents, and there is no way to stop that in a small closed space.

We closed the schools, opened the schools, closed the schools, opened the schools..........and learned nothing from it.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The kids in Ontario remove their masks to eat lunch and I am sure at other times during the day.
> 
> The Delta variants is too infectious to count on masking and minor distancing (if that happens at all).
> 
> Besides, unless the kids are wearing N95 masks, the virus penetrates masks easily.
> 
> As the kids are locked inside over the winter, I have no doubt the virus will spread more rapidly in schools.
> 
> It is an airborne infection that travels in the air currents, and there is no way to stop that in a small closed space.
> 
> We closed the schools, opened the schools, closed the schools, opened the schools..........and learned nothing from it.



Can you show any reputable data that kids are spreading COVID19 at schools at higher rates?

All the data suggests that kids in schools, wearing masks, have lower rates of COVID than the general population.

You have no doubt it will spread more rapidly, but no data to support this.


I get it, you have an opinion, and no amount of data from Public health or the CDC is going to change your mind.


----------



## Money172375

My sense in ontario is that people are treating Covid like it’s over, or at the very least, they’ve decided to live with it.

high vaccine rates, schools open for 2 months, tens of thousands at baseball and hockey games, thanksgiving………….and cases are still falling. 

lucky? Naive?


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> My sense in ontario is that people are treating Covid like it’s over, or at the very least, they’ve decided to live with it.


 ... yesterday night out walking around the chic neighbourhoods showed the case of first scenario.



> high vaccine rates, schools open for 2 months, tens of thousands at baseball and hockey games, thanksgiving………….and cases are still falling.
> 
> lucky? Naive?


 ... both. 

Lucky in the sense the sensible people are using all the tools available to tackle the same variants. 

Naive if the a new deadlier variant comes about into town.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> My sense in ontario is that people are treating Covid like it’s over, or at the very least, they’ve decided to live with it.
> 
> high vaccine rates, schools open for 2 months, tens of thousands at baseball and hockey games, thanksgiving………….and cases are still falling.
> 
> lucky? Naive?


I think Ontario is lucky right now. 

Also Sask loosened restrictions too early IMO. Ontario has been all students in masks since they went back to school, I have no idea why Sask wasn't.

Also many kids want to keep the masks, or they're at least okay with them, they're used to them and don't see a big problem.


----------



## sags

We have more "multiple" cases and an outbreak in local schools.

Several students in Ingersoll and London are being told to stay home next week after *multiple cases of COVID-19 were identified at two local schools*.
The Thames Valley District School Board announced on Saturday that cases of the virus had been detected at Clara Brenton Public School and Harrisfield Public School. There are currently two active cases at each school and *an outbreak has been declared at Harrisfield.*









COVID-19 cases detected at two Thames Valley schools


Several students in Ingersoll and London are being told to stay home next week after multiple cases of COVID-19 were identified at two local schools.




blackburnnews.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> We have more "multiple" cases and an outbreak in local schools.
> 
> Several students in Ingersoll and London are being told to stay home next week after *multiple cases of COVID-19 were identified at two local schools*.
> The Thames Valley District School Board announced on Saturday that cases of the virus had been detected at Clara Brenton Public School and Harrisfield Public School. There are currently two active cases at each school and *an outbreak has been declared at Harrisfield.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 cases detected at two Thames Valley schools
> 
> 
> Several students in Ingersoll and London are being told to stay home next week after multiple cases of COVID-19 were identified at two local schools.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> blackburnnews.com


By "multiple" cases they mean 2 cases at each school.
Out of nearly 75k students, they have a handful of cases, and 2 school outbreaks.

Also remember these kids are likely not vaccinated.

You're really sensationalizing the situation.


----------



## sags

You should call up the school and health boards and tell them what the definition of an outbreak should be.

I am sure they would be interested to hear your unqualified opinion.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> You should call up the school and health boards and tell them what the definition of an outbreak should be.
> 
> I am sure they would be interested to hear your unqualified opinion.


You're the one acting like there is a serious problem.

Oh no, out of 75 thousand kids and a hundred schools, there were 2 schools where 2 kids had COVID.
This isn't a big deal, students (vaccinated and not vaccinated) are getting COVID at lower rates than the surrounding population. This is true pretty much everywhere kids are in schools wearing masks.





__





Microsoft Power BI







app.powerbi.com





Being a kid in school is one of the safest situations.

Wash your hands, wear your mask, and your protection is pretty good, get vaccinated, it's even better.


I don't even know what your point or goal is.
Keep kids home, get them out of schools and put them in higher risk situations?


----------



## sags

Another 88 cases in schools in Ontario today, as the infections continue to add up.

What can be done to make the schools safer for kids ?





__





TVO | Current affairs, documentaries and education







www.tvo.org


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> My sense in ontario is that people are treating Covid like it’s over, or at the very least, they’ve decided to live with it.


BC is also easing various restrictions.

I have no idea why ON and BC are relaxing things now. Seems like terrible timing, to pack more people into bars and gyms, right as cold & flu season starts.


----------



## damian13ster

Just in time for:

cold & flu - terrible timing
christmas - what are they doing!?
new years - are they crazy?
valentine's day - can't have that!
women's day - oh no, they will murder their own people
easter - do they want the 12th wave!?
summer - can't have that!
back to school - they are killing children!

rinse and repeat


----------



## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> BC is also easing various restrictions.
> 
> I have no idea why ON and BC are relaxing things now. Seems like terrible timing, to pack more people into bars and gyms, right as cold & flu season starts.


Keep in mind that ON has been relaxing restrictions for a while, and there still will be some masking and vaccine passport restrictions. Keep in mind that when other provinces opened up, they pretty much did away with all restrictions at a lower vaccination rate, and they didn't have vaccine passports. Those measures should reduce the risk. As for flu season, the best we can do is hope that people get their flu shots. Hope usually isn't a course of action, but we're not going to see flu mandates any time soon. Remember that this time last year we still hadn't seen any vaccination yet, and speculation that we wouldn't be able to get it done within the year, but here we are.


----------



## james4beach

bgc_fan said:


> As for flu season, the best we can do is hope that people get their flu shots


Sorry what I meant when I said "cold & flu season" is that this is the time of years when ALL respiratory infections spread more. Probably due to everyone being stuck indoors together, less ventilation, and dry winter air.

Flu is always a big deal, but what I meant was that it seems to me we are at higher risk for COVID during these winter months.


----------



## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> Sorry what I meant when I said "cold & flu season" is that this is the time of years when ALL respiratory infections spread more. Probably due to everyone being stuck indoors together, less ventilation, and dry winter air.
> 
> Flu is always a big deal, but what I meant was that it seems to me we are at higher risk for COVID during these winter months.


Isn't that always the story? People explaining why covid increases during certain months (it's hot, it's cold, everyone is inside). But again, with vaccine passports and high vaccination rates, it may not be that bad. Keep in mind, they are still going to track cases and if things go south (so to speak), then you'll probably see some restrictions be put back into place. Likely capacity limits. Vaccine passports are going to be around at least until March, so there's that.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> Isn't that always the story? People explaining why covid increases during certain months (it's hot, it's cold, everyone is inside). But again, with vaccine passports and high vaccination rates, it may not be that bad. Keep in mind, they are still going to track cases and if things go south (so to speak), then you'll probably see some restrictions be put back into place. Likely capacity limits. *Vaccine passports are going to be around at least until March*, so there's that.


 ... not according to Ford's (Ontario) timeline. I think it's January 2022. March is the mask mandate removeal. 

Overall, I think that timeline is too ambitious and would not be surprised it'll re-set (aka extended) after the Xmas season. Hope to be proven wrong here though.


----------



## Beaver101

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ahs-lawsuit-vaccine-mandatory-calgary-1.6224278

Well, well, well, what do you know. Alberta always the first to be special.

First time I have heard of doctors suing their province or specifically the provincial health authority (AHS). I guess they haven't heard of how successful patients were in suing them, doctors, through the provincial health authority.

Nothing better than to keep Alberta (the province with rich taxpayers) in the limelight and Kenney busy.


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... not according to Ford's (Ontario) timeline. I think it's January 2022. March is the mask mandate removeal.
> 
> Overall, I think that timeline is too ambitious and would not be surprised it'll re-set (aka extended) after the Xmas season. Hope to be proven wrong here though.


I probably got them mixed up. But you wouldn't happen to have a link? I remember finding it, but forgot to link it.

Setting it in January isn't a bad idea, although Feb/March would be better as that should give more time to see if things develop due to Christmas.

Edit: As an aside, it's interesting to see the comparison between Ontario and Michigan. You can argue that there should be some similarities in the population/geography/climate and that differences can be attributed to vaccination rate and policies.








Across the Detroit River, Ontario Has Only a Fraction of Michigan's Covid Cases







www.deadlinedetroit.com





Michigan: 10.2M pop, 1.1M cases, 21.8k deaths, 60.1% (16+) are fully vaccinated
Ontario: 15M pop, 597k cases, 9.8k deaths, 84% (12+) fully vaccinated.

Would have to compare before and after vaccine availability, but if most of the difference is after the vaccine, then this would be an argument for it's effectiveness.


----------



## Beaver101

bgc_fan said:


> I probably got them mixed up. But you wouldn't happen to have a link? I remember finding it, but forgot to link it.
> 
> Setting it in January isn't a bad idea, although Feb/March would be better as that should give more time to see if things develop due to Christmas.


 ... here's the link:

Timeline of Ontario's plan to lift public health measures

Or the short version I lifted from someone's Twit:

Oct 25: Increased Capacity
Nov 15: Increased High-Risk Capacity
Jan 17: No Vaccine Passports
Mar 28: Masks Removed




> Edit: As an aside, it's interesting to see the comparison between Ontario and Michigan. You can argue that there should be some similarities in the population/geography/climate and that differences can be attributed to vaccination rate and policies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Across the Detroit River, Ontario Has Only a Fraction of Michigan's Covid Cases
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.deadlinedetroit.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Michigan: 10.2M pop, 1.1M cases, 21.8k deaths, 60.1% (16+) are fully vaccinated
> Ontario: 15M pop, 597k cases, 9.8k deaths, 84% (12+) fully vaccinated.
> 
> Would have to compare before and after vaccine availability, but if most of the difference is after the vaccine, then this would be an argument for it's effectiveness.


 ... we can study and compare stats, science, etc all we want but as far as I'm concerned (the layperson), Covid travels via infected humans (for now).


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> Or the short version I lifted from someone's Twit:
> 
> Oct 25: Increased Capacity
> Nov 15: Increased High-Risk Capacity
> Jan 17: No Vaccine Passports
> Mar 28: Masks Removed


Not quite. From what I read, from Jan, certain venues may lift vaccine passport requirements. In Feb, they start lifting them from high-risk settings such as nightclubs and bath houses, unless it's deemed unsafe. It's only in March that they would lift the requirements from the remaining venues like meeting and event spaces, concerts and cinemas.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I'm lazy and used the lifted short (simple) version (that came from a MD).

To be honest, I don't care on this schedule (who is going to 'remember exactly what and when') as the pandemic ain't over and none of the venues (bathhouses, strip joint, sex clubs, duh?) interest me. And who the hell goes to "amusement" parks right now? In need of a good soaking, if not freeze-over. 

I can see cinemas, tattoo parlours, even weddings, and RE open houses for the anti-inflationary desperates, for example.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario could see 50,000 education workers fired if vaccines mandated: Lecce

With the above figures coming from Lecce , I think this is either 1. an opportune time for Ontario to reduce a bloated "education" workforce (including Lecce) and/or 2. Lecce re-take a mandated grade 9 math course and/or 3. refund Ontario property/homeowners their property taxes. I'm dazzled by Lecce's math.


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> Just in time for:
> 
> cold & flu - terrible timing
> christmas - what are they doing!?
> new years - are they crazy?
> valentine's day - can't have that!
> women's day - oh no, they will murder their own people
> easter - do they want the 12th wave!?
> summer - can't have that!
> back to school - they are killing children!
> 
> rinse and repeat


Waiting until kids 5+ are given the opportunity to be vaccinated is not the worst idea.


----------



## damian13ster

Why? In Alberta in 18 months a total of 1 person under 18 has died. 
They aren't driving up the hospital or death numbers, vaccine doesn't stop the spread.
What is the reason to wait for kids to be vaccinated? They will still spread, and they still won't die.


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ahs-lawsuit-vaccine-mandatory-calgary-1.6224278
> 
> Well, well, well, what do you know. Alberta always the first to be special.
> 
> First time I have heard of doctors suing their province or specifically the provincial health authority (AHS). I guess they haven't heard of how successful patients were in suing them, doctors, through the provincial health authority.
> 
> Nothing better than to keep Alberta (the province with rich taxpayers) in the limelight and Kenney busy.


 ... oh, looks like we (Ontario) has one to join the same chorus. Time for her to sue CPSO too which has deep pockets, funded by Ontario taxpayers:

Ontario regulator says anti-COVID-19 vaccine doctor can no longer practice medicine.


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> ... here's the link:
> 
> Timeline of Ontario's plan to lift public health measures
> 
> Or the short version I lifted from someone's Twit:
> 
> Oct 25: Increased Capacity
> Nov 15: Increased High-Risk Capacity
> Jan 17: No Vaccine Passports
> Mar 28: Masks Removed
> 
> 
> ... we can study and compare stats, science, etc all we want but as far as I'm concerned (the layperson), Covid travels via infected humans (for now).


 ... I'm surprised Ms. Crombie (mayor for city of Mississauga, Ontario) has "serious" concerns with Ford's timeline. I guess I'm not the only way to think his schedule to lift everything, is rather ambitious. Mississauga is part of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), in the province of Ontario just in case Ford (as premier of the province of Ontario) had a memory lapse while "consulting with *his team*" of experts.

Mississauga's mayor concerned about Ont.'s proposed dates for lifting all COVID-19 restrictions


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... I'm surprised Ms. Crombie (mayor for city of Mississauga, Ontario) has "serious" concerns with Ford's timeline. I guess I'm not the only way to think his schedule to lift everything, is rather ambitious. Mississauga is part of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), in the province of Ontario just in case Ford (as premier of the province of Ontario) had a memory lapse while "consulting with *his team*" of experts.
> 
> Mississauga's mayor concerned about Ont.'s proposed dates for lifting all COVID-19 restrictions


Not sure how jurisdiction plays out, but I would have thought that local municipalities could always have their own bylaws.

But then again, it didn't work in Saskatchewan.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/city-council-covid-19-gathering-limit-bylaw-1.6227388


----------



## damian13ster

Florida has the lowest case count over last week in entire mainland USA


----------



## zinfit

sags said:


> Another 88 cases in schools in Ontario today, as the infections continue to add up.
> 
> What can be done to make the schools safer for kids ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TVO | Current affairs, documentaries and education
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tvo.org


From what I have seen kids get covid but it is very mild and rarely becomes a serious case.the average age of deaths in Alberta is something like 83.You can check deaths by age groups and the number of deaths for kids is minimal.


damian13ster said:


> Florida has the lowest case count over last week in entire mainland USA


Yes after going through a horror story over the summer and early September. Letting the disease runs it coarse might be the better long term solution. Sweden did that and I think their numbers are fairly positive now. If the virus runs free eventually the only people left are the vaccinated and the unvaccinated who have recovered.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> From what I have seen kids get covid but it is very mild and rarely becomes a serious case.the average age of deaths in Alberta is something like 83.You can check deaths by age groups and the number of deaths for kids is minimal.
> 
> Yes after going through a horror story over the summer and early September. Letting the disease runs it coarse might be the better long term solution. Sweden did that and I think their numbers are fairly positive now. If the virus runs free eventually the only people left are the vaccinated and the unvaccinated who have recovered.


There were states with much worse hospitalization numbers and death numbers. Their horror stories weren't prevented either. 

You are right zinfit. Number of deaths under 18 in Alberta from the beginning of the pandemic is: 1


----------



## sags

Yea, but Alberta had 531 new infections and 12 deaths yesterday, so the virus continues on.


----------



## damian13ster

Yes, we had long lockdowns, have vaccine passports, massive restrictions, destroyed economy, and the virus continues on.
It kind of seems like things we are doing aren't working. 2 years of lockdowns, deficits, debt, mental health crisis, opioid crisis, hate, division, and the virus is still here.
Yet people still want to continue on.

Guess who didn't have a 4th wave? Or a 3rd wave in fact? Sweden.

And Alberta still did much better than Quebec or Manitoba. Yet noone rips on those two provinces. What gives?


----------



## Money172375

This Sweden?


----------



## Money172375

In the end, it appears Canada‘s case rate and death rate will be one of the lowest in developed countries with large urban populations. If we didn’t have the LTC issues, we’d be even better.


----------



## sags

Wow....Sweden is paying for their lack of testing and restrictions.

Just last December the King of Sweden had to apologize to the people for screwing up so badly.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> In the end, it appears Canada‘s case rate and death rate will be one of the lowest in developed countries with large urban populations. If we didn’t have the LTC issues, we’d be even better.


Because in general Canadians are pretty reasonable.


----------



## damian13ster

Money172375 said:


> In the end, it appears Canada‘s case rate and death rate will be one of the lowest in developed countries with large urban populations. If we didn’t have the LTC issues, we’d be even better.


What they did to seniors was criminal.
Sweden did terrible mistake when it comes to their seniors. Don't see anyone arguing that
Sweden did amazing job when it comes to remainder of the population.

Canadian government simply focused on killing more people in different way:








Excess Mortality across Countries in 2020 - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine


Ufuk Parildar, Rafael Perara, Jason Oke The Coronavirus (SARS-nCOV2) has caused a marked increase in deaths across the world but




www.cebm.net




Sweden 1.5% excess mortality
Canada 6.0% excess mortality

And sadly Canadian Government focused on killing younger people

















COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality and potential years of life lost in the U.S. and peer countries - Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker


Researchers have used a variety of measures to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 infection and deaths in excess of prior years’ death rates. However, these measures do not incorporate the prematurity of deaths or differences in age at...




www.healthsystemtracker.org


----------



## sags

Much of the world made the mistake of treating covid patients in the general hospitals, rather than creating designated covid treatment centres.

As soon as covid patients started filling up hospital beds, the virus spread through the hospitals and closed down regular healthcare.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Much of the world made the mistake of treating covid patients in the general hospitals, rather than creating designated covid treatment centres.
> 
> As soon as covid patients started filling up hospital beds, the virus spread through the hospitals and closed down regular healthcare.


Creating "designated COVID treatment centers"?

Did you think we can just order a few hundred ICU's off Amazon with same day delivery?


----------



## damian13ster

The problems were twofold:

we spend twice as much on healthcare as most of EU, getting 40% of beds out of that
Canadian Government killed more teenagers than any other developed country in the world, and Canadian Government killed Canadians in working age who had most of their lives still ahead of them.
The virus targeted the elders. Trudeau killed younglings


----------



## Money172375

damian13ster said:


> The problems were twofold:
> 
> we spend twice as much on healthcare as most of EU, getting 40% of beds out of that
> Canadian Government killed more teenagers than any other developed country in the world, and Canadian Government killed Canadians in working age who had most of their lives still ahead of them.
> The virus targeted the elders. Trudeau killed younglings


How did he do that?


----------



## damian13ster

Money172375 said:


> How did he do that?


Through his policies that led to

unemployment
anxiety
disappearance of mental health support
disappearance of social circles
destroying education
locking them in abusive homes
division and hate

One must understand the effect of policies before introducing them.
A lot has sounded the alarm. He didn't listen. That's how he killed more teenagers than any other leader in developed world. That's why our excess deaths are higher than Sweden.
That's how we are among the highest in the world in excess deaths for young people.

Now, don't get me wrong. I don't think that was his intention. The problem: stupidity kills. And his stupidity killed a lot of young people.


----------



## Money172375

damian13ster said:


> Through his policies that led to
> 
> unemployment
> anxiety
> disappearance of mental health support
> disappearance of social circles
> destroying education
> locking them in abusive homes
> division and hate
> 
> One must understand the effect of policies before introducing them.
> A lot has sounded the alarm. He didn't listen. That's how he killed more teenagers than any other leader in developed world. That's why our excess deaths are higher than Sweden.
> That's how we are among the highest in the world in excess deaths for young people.
> 
> Now, don't get me wrong. I don't think that was his intention. The problem: stupidity kills. And his stupidity killed a lot of young people.


A number of those seem to be under provincial jurisdiction.


----------



## damian13ster

Money172375 said:


> A number of those seem to be under provincial jurisdiction.


Certainly. There is plenty of stupidity being displayed on multiple levels of governments. 
He isn't the only idiot in Canada. He is simply an idiot with highest influence, and that's why he is responsible for most of those unnecessary deaths.


----------



## Money172375

damian13ster said:


> Certainly. There is plenty of stupidity being displayed on multiple levels of governments.
> He isn't the only idiot in Canada. He is simply an idiot with highest influence, and that's why he is responsible for most of those unnecessary deaths.


Interesting take since most of the items on your list are provincial.


----------



## damian13ster

Money172375 said:


> Interesting take since most of the items on your list are provincial.


They were, before the pandemic. Federal government did massive overreach of their powers and still continue to do so.
They steered health care funding away from provinces that they didn't like or didn't do what the feds wanted.
They introduced national programs that led to massive unemployment in Canada
They did everything they possibly could to stoke hate and division and continue to do so.
The brunt of the decisions (closing of schools, lockdowns, etc.) were made by provinces, they weren't done in the vacuum though.

And I am not going to defend provincial premiers.
They certainly were accessory to killing of the young people in Canada. How you spread the blame - is less significant then stopping the very actions that killed young ones, and preventing them from ever happening again.

The fact are, decisions made in Canada killed more people <65 than in just about any country in the world


----------



## damian13ster

COVID-19: Quebec drops vaccination mandate for health-care workers | Globalnews.ca


After pushing back its deadline multiple times on its vaccine mandate, Health Minister Christian Dubé said the province will abandon the measure altogether.




globalnews.ca













Ontario will not mandate COVID-19 vaccines for hospital workers | Globalnews.ca


"We will continue to monitor the situation in our hospitals very closely and take additional action if warranted," the province said Wednesday.




globalnews.ca


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> COVID-19: Quebec drops vaccination mandate for health-care workers | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> After pushing back its deadline multiple times on its vaccine mandate, Health Minister Christian Dubé said the province will abandon the measure altogether.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario will not mandate COVID-19 vaccines for hospital workers | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> "We will continue to monitor the situation in our hospitals very closely and take additional action if warranted," the province said Wednesday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


 ... from the 2nd link (Ontario),



> . .. _Elliott said hospitals are free to continue to implement their own mandates. She said the Ontario Hospital Association said it supported a mandatory policy but that other hospitals told the province they were concerned about what it would do to their health human resources. Elliott would not name those hospitals._ ...


 ... easier (and kind of make sense) for Ms. Elliott to deflect the responsibility to the individual hospitals. Doesn't given patients much confidence to find out that "their" hospital do not have a vaccine mandate. Or start questioning (if not raising eyebrows) on the healthworkers caring for them in the hospital. 

I think it's time for each patient + their family (aka visitors too) to start re-familiarizing with hospital's Patients' Bill of Rights. 

In the meantime, I would hope the hospitals continue accommodating these workers with frequent "testings", generously paid for by you and me, the Ontario taxpayers, until the end of the pandemic.


----------



## damian13ster

Then health care workers will simply move to different hospitals/facilities, or set up their own like one in BC.
The important part is we will not lose healthcare workers during pandemic, and procedures won't have to be delayed further than necessary.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Then health care workers will simply move to different hospitals/facilities, or set up their own like one in BC.
> The important part is we will not lose healthcare workers during pandemic, and procedures won't have to be delayed further than necessary.


 .. I would like you to repeat the above we (Ontario) have a "surge of infections or better yet the ICUs overwhelmed." 

Like ... nothing to see or happening here ... move along.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> .. I would like you to repeat the above we (Ontario) have a "surge of infections or better yet the ICUs overwhelmed."
> 
> Like ... nothing to see or happening here ... move along.


When you have a surge of infections and the ICUs are overwhelmed, then you should be happy you didn't fire 3,000 of healthcare workers


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> When you have a surge of infections and the ICUs are overwhelmed, then you should be happy you didn't fire 3,000 of healthcare workers


 ... huh? No delay or cancellation of services or surgeries? Plus all 3,000 workers are healthily and happily working ... how soon we all forget. You might as well say "what pandemic"?


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... huh? No delay or cancellation of services or surgeries? Plus all 3,000 workers are healthily and happily working ... how soon we all forget. You might as well say "what pandemic"?


Seems like you misunderstood again. Your response makes no sense.
The 3,000 health care workers were on the frontline for last 18 months. We were all thankful for it (at least I was, assume you were as well), so it makes sense that they should remain on the frontlines when/if another wave comes. We would be in much worse position without them than we are with them. Quebec and Ontario realized that, so they backed off from the mandate


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Seems like you misunderstood again. Your response makes no sense.


 .. re-read your post before trying to decipher mine's. 



> The 3,000 health care workers were on the frontline for last 18 months. We were all thankful for it (at least I was, assume you were as well), so it makes sense that they should remain on the frontlines when/if another wave comes.


 ... isn't it those are their paid-occupations in the first place (ie. sign up for) to be "frontline" healthcare workers? Just like the cashier at a grocery store?



> We would be in much worse position without them than we are with them. Quebec and Ontario realized that, so they backed off from the mandate.


 ... I would like to see you being a hostage negotiator. I get it's not easy at all so the easiest way is to give-in.


----------



## damian13ster

Yes, that's the career they have chosen, and for last 18 months they were dealing with the crisis, and they were saving Canadians. Now they will continue to be able to do it instead of not being allowed to continue saving people. I am personally thankful to them, same as I was during last 18 months, and am happy that they will keep the healthcare system going.

I don't get your hostage negotiation reference. The 3,000 healthcare workers were the hostages. They just got freed and allowed to continue saving Canadian lives. It is a victory.
We are much better with the 3,000 healthcare workers than without them


----------



## Beaver101

^ We'll see.

Update: Thurs. Nov.4 (whoops, not Rememberance day yet!), 2021:

'Pay now or pay later:' Peel's top doc says refusal to mandate vaccination for hospital workers will still lead to staffing shortages

Ontario won't mandate COVID-19 vaccines for hospital workers, despite advice from science table

Post-pandemic health systems could be challenged by COVID-19 spending spike: CIHI

Hate to say (or predict) this but I think this action from the Ford's government to not follow the science now is going to cost him at election time. For sure if we (Ontario) get another wave.


----------



## sags

Europe and Asia are again the COVID epicenter with a rising wave of virus. The problem is cited as low vaccination rates and lack of restrictions.

This is the danger of low vaccinations. The virus keeps spreading and mutations keep happening. The Delta virus originated in India.

If a variant does pop up there, I hope we are ready and willing to shut the borders this time. We can't wait and go through all this again.









WHO warns that Europe is once again at the epicenter of the Covid pandemic


The region accounted for 59% of all cases globally and 48% of reported deaths last week




www.cnbc.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Europe and Asia are again the COVID epicenter with a rising wave of virus. The problem is cited as low vaccination rates and lack of restrictions.
> 
> This is the danger of low vaccinations. The virus keeps spreading and mutations keep happening. The Delta virus originated in India.
> 
> If a variant does pop up there, I hope we are ready and willing to shut the borders this time. We can't wait and go through all this again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WHO warns that Europe is once again at the epicenter of the Covid pandemic
> 
> 
> The region accounted for 59% of all cases globally and 48% of reported deaths last week
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com


Well, Canada is on the path to low vaccinations, the ones we do have are wearing out in terms of spread reduction, and they have a half assed plan to fix it.

Face it, COVID is here to stay (like everyone has known since the beginning).


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> Well, Canada is on the path to low vaccinations, the ones we do have are wearing out in terms of spread reduction, and they have a half assed plan to fix it.
> 
> Face it, COVID is here to stay (like everyone has known since the beginning).


High useage of traditional vaccines and lower vaccination rates especially in places like China.


----------



## Money172375

Interesting…..will likely further embolden some anti-vaxxers.



https://ca.yahoo.com/news/scientists-uncover-gene-doubles-person-154145512.html


----------



## bgc_fan

Money172375 said:


> Interesting…..will likely further embolden some anti-vaxxers.
> 
> 
> 
> https://ca.yahoo.com/news/scientists-uncover-gene-doubles-person-154145512.html


Why would it embolden anti-vaxxers? The article provides more argument to get vaccinated.


----------



## Money172375

bgc_fan said:


> Why would it embolden anti-vaxxers? The article provides more argument to get vaccinated.


People who feel they aren’t genetically at risk will argue they don’t need the vax.


----------



## james4beach

james4beach said:


> This B.C. conspiracy theory guy travelled to a "flat earth" conference in South Carolina... a convention to discuss how the earth is flat. He bragged about taking his mask off during the flights, told the border agent that the Quarantine Act doesn't apply to him, and then violated the mandatory 14 day isolation upon re-entering Canada.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-covid-conspiracy-theorist-charged-1.5790376
> 
> 
> 
> He's been charged with breaking the mandatory quarantine, and has made his first appearance in court. IMO, the Crown should pursue the most aggressive charges which could mean 3 years in prison. Time to make an example of a few of these people and stop them from endangering the public. They can continue working on their flat earth theories from prison; I hear they have access to crayons.


This story was from a year ago.

This man, Mak Parhar, just died at age 48. And it sounds like it was due to covid, since in the last few weeks he was coughing and even started taking ivermectin. This article describes all the symptoms he had been describing in the weeks before his death. Constantly taking extra strength Advil and Tylenol. Chills. Hacking and coughing, spitting his phlegm out of his car window.

​"It's definitely not CONVID because CONVID doesn't exist, so I'm not even going to fucking go there," Parhar declares.​​Later, he asks: "What happened to my immune system? How did this manifest?"​​
*How many other people did he infect in his last days alive?*

Very sad that a 48 year old man had to die in the prime of his life when it could have been avoided. Even worse that he influenced so many other people to make stupid decisions, endanger their lives, and endanger all the rest of us too.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> This story was from a year ago.
> 
> This man, Mak Parhar, just died at age 48. And it sounds like it was due to covid, since in the last few weeks he was coughing and even started taking ivermectin. This article describes all the symptoms he had been describing in the weeks before his death. Constantly taking extra strength Advil and Tylenol. Chills. Hacking and coughing, spitting his phlegm out of his car window.
> 
> ​"It's definitely not CONVID because CONVID doesn't exist, so I'm not even going to fucking go there," Parhar declares.​​Later, he asks: "What happened to my immune system? How did this manifest?"​​
> *How many other people did he infect in his last days alive?*
> 
> Very sad that a 48 year old man had to die in the prime of his life when it could have been avoided. Even worse that he influenced so many other people to make stupid decisions, endanger their lives, and endanger all the rest of us too.


 ... the guy couldn't wait to see his maker to test his theory that CONVID doesn't exist. And he gets to be right as it doesn't exists for him 6 feet under.


----------



## sags

The bloody virus is spreading at a fast rate again in Germany, Russia, and across Europe and Asia. China is locking down some areas of infection again.

WTF........this virus is starting to get on my nerves. I hope somebody is working on killing it instead of just avoiding or treating it.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Careful, you're going to be accused of being an alarmist here (again!).


----------



## Synergy

sags said:


> The bloody virus is spreading at a fast rate again in Germany, Russia, and across Europe and Asia. China is locking down some areas of infection again.
> 
> WTF........this virus is starting to get on my nerves. I hope somebody is working on killing it instead of just avoiding or treating it.


Tis the season! Likely a bumpy ride until we get through winter and early spring.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The bloody virus is spreading at a fast rate again in Germany, Russia, and across Europe and Asia. China is locking down some areas of infection again.
> 
> WTF........this virus is starting to get on my nerves. I hope somebody is working on killing it instead of just avoiding or treating it.


You can't kill it, because it isn't alive.








COVID-19 Isn't Even 'Alive,' It's Not Really a Living Organism - MedicineNet Health News


THURSDAY, March 26, 2020 -- It has spread across the globe in just a few short months, sickening hundreds of thousands, but the new coronavirus has the dubious distinction of not really being a living organism, biologists say.




www.medicinenet.com





Also we can "kill it" we just can't do it in a way that doesn't kill the patient.

The reality is we've never been able to control Coronaviruses, I've said from the beginning that we'd be incredibly fortunate if that we magically develop a solution to the particular strain that happens to be somewhat more dangerous.

You're getting angry like you think we should be able to control this or should be able to do something.
Don't know what's that based on, since there is actually very little we really have control over.


----------



## james4beach

The new pills from Merck and Pfizer are very good news


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> The new pills from Merck and Pfizer are very good news


If the anti-vaxxers will take them it should relieve the strain on the healthcare system.


----------



## sags




----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> If the anti-vaxxers will take them it should relieve the strain on the healthcare system.


For sure. And the healthcare system load is one of the biggest bottlenecks in this whole game.

If those hospitalizations can be reduced significantly with a pill, this whole thing is basically over. I don't want to get my hopes up too much, but this is exciting.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> For sure. And the healthcare system load is one of the biggest bottlenecks in this whole game.
> 
> If those hospitalizations can be reduced significantly with a pill, this whole thing is basically over. I don't want to get my hopes up too much, but this is exciting.


I'm sure firing healthcare workers will help make things better.

Boggles my mind, they were heros working for a year when we had no vaccine and no clue how to treat it.
Now that we have low cases, and more effective treatments, they're the problem

So much that they're firing the staff we desperately need, while prohibiting the rest of us from getting the third shot we need to slow the spread.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> I'm sure firing healthcare workers will help make things better.
> 
> Boggles my mind, they were heros working for a year when we had no vaccine and no clue how to treat it.
> Now that we have low cases, and more effective treatments, they're the problem
> 
> So much that they're firing the staff we desperately need, while prohibiting the rest of us from getting the third shot we need to slow the spread.


give it up .Other then the anti-vaxxers who have clogged up the healthcare system virtually no one has any sympathy for your position. We have been working through a major health care crisis much like a time of war and I am sorry in such times the bleeding hearts can bleed. Te selfishness and ignorance of the anti-vaxxers are reaping the consequences of their own decisions.


----------



## MK7GTI

zinfit said:


> give it up .Other then the anti-vaxxers who have clogged up the healthcare system virtually no one has any sympathy for your position. We have been working through a major health care crisis much like a time of war and I am sorry in such times the bleeding hearts can bleed. Te selfishness and ignorance of the anti-vaxxers are reaping the consequences of their own decisions.


The announcements in Quebec and Ontario would say otherwise. Get over yourself. There are MANY out there that disagree with you.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> Other then the anti-vaxxers who have clogged up the healthcare system virtually no one has any sympathy for your position


But keep in mind, many fully vaccinated people do still end up in hospital. It may be true that the unvaccinated are the majority of the healthcare load (certainly in ICU) but there are also quite a few vaccinated people catching covid and ending up using healthcare resources.

Here are the most recent BC statistics for example. In the last two weeks, *hospitalized* people were
71% not vaccinated or partially vaccinated
29% fully vaccinated

Not a tiny proportion


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> But keep in mind, many fully vaccinated people do still end up in hospital. It may be true that the unvaccinated are the majority of the healthcare load (certainly in ICU) but there are also quite a few vaccinated people catching covid and ending up using healthcare resources.
> 
> Here are the most recent BC statistics for example. In the last two weeks, *hospitalized* people were
> 71% not vaccinated or partially vaccinated
> 29% fully vaccinated
> 
> Not a tiny proportion



True, but I want to stop the spread.
Give me my vaccine.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> But keep in mind, many fully vaccinated people do still end up in hospital. It may be true that the unvaccinated are the majority of the healthcare load (certainly in ICU) but there are also quite a few vaccinated people catching covid and ending up using healthcare resources.
> 
> Here are the most recent BC statistics for example. In the last two weeks, *hospitalized* people were
> 71% not vaccinated or partially vaccinated
> 29% fully vaccinated
> 
> Not a tiny proportion


yes but 85% are vaccinated so the numbers are heavily weighted towards the unvaccinated.


----------



## Synergy

zinfit said:


> yes but 85% are vaccinated so the numbers are heavily weighted towards the unvaccinated.


True, that's why we need to compare absolute numbers.

There's other factors to consider as well. Unvaccinated individuals more or less likely to follow rules, socialize, party, etc. Pretty tough to truly get accurate stats with all the confounding variables.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> yes but 85% are vaccinated so the numbers are heavily weighted towards the unvaccinated.


Yes that's a good point. To make a meaningful comparison we'd have to compare the per capita rates: hospital admissions vs total number of vaccinated people


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> But keep in mind, many fully vaccinated people do still end up in hospital. It may be true that the unvaccinated are the majority of the healthcare load (certainly in ICU) but there are also quite a few vaccinated people catching covid and ending up using healthcare resources.
> 
> Here are the most recent BC statistics for example. In the last two weeks, *hospitalized* people were
> 71% not vaccinated or partially vaccinated
> 29% fully vaccinated
> 
> Not a tiny proportion


 ... actually the number of "vaccinateds" accounting for hospitalization inched higher in the past week versus your last 2 weeks numbers:



> _From Oct. 28 to Nov. 3, people* not fully vaccinated accounted for 65.3% of cases.*
> From Oct. 21 to Nov. 3, they accounted for *71.1% of hospitalizations.*
> 
> Past week cases (Oct. 28 to Nov. 3) – Total 3,366_
> 
> _Not vaccinated: 2,017 (59.9%)_
> _Partially vaccinated: 181 (5.4%)_
> _Fully vaccinated: 1,168 (34.7%)_
> _Past two weeks cases hospitalized (Oct. 21 to Nov. 3) – Total 456_
> 
> _Not vaccinated: 294 (64.5%)_
> _Partially vaccinated: 30 (6.6%)_
> _Fully vaccinated: 132 (28.9%) _




so what does this mean? The vaccine ain't working? or is it waning? Which ever way you cut the numbers/percentages/stats above, the "unvaccinated (include partially)" number is always higher than the "vaccinated(fully)" in terms of hospitalizations. Mind you these numbers do not offer any other considerations such as severity of illness, patient co-morbidities, duration of stay, etc. to assess the use up of additional hospital resources.

I think the ultimate litmus test on the decision "to vax" or "not-to-vax" is the death rate. How many died vaxxed and how many died unvaxxed.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> True, but I want to stop the spread.
> Give me my vaccine.


 ... "general" population in Ontario gets 3rd shot in as early as January 2022 (today is November 8, 2021) and as late as May 2022. 

Mind you we (Ontarians) might get lucky getting the schedule being bumped up if we keep seeing news like this:

City of Toronto says 31,000 appointments still available for COVID-19 booster shot


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... "general" population in Ontario gets 3rd shot in as early as January 2022 (today is November 8, 2021) and as late as May 2022.
> 
> Mind you we (Ontarians) might get lucky getting the schedule being bumped up if we keep seeing news like this:
> 
> City of Toronto says 31,000 appointments still available for COVID-19 booster shot


Too little too late

We have lots of vaccine, we have lots of capacity. Why are they delaying the boosters until AFTER CHRISTMAS.
If we were serious we'd be focused on filling those appointments and getting boosters before the holiday season.. unless you don't think spread is the real problem.

Remember, most kids remain unvaccinated.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Better late than never.

As for getting answers to your questions - care to ask Ford or Ms. Elliott who are in charge for their distribution? [ Don't be surprised on the answer that they're just following the "science/recommendations". ]

Besides, it's a "booster" shot, aka "protection upgrade" for the majority of the population in Ontario. They still have those "holdouts" with no protection to worry about.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Better late than never.
> 
> As for getting answers to your questions - care to ask Ford or Ms. Elliott who are in charge for their distribution? [ Don't be surprised on the answer that they're just following the "science/recommendations". ]
> 
> Besides, it's a "booster" shot, aka "protection upgrade" for the majority of the population in Ontario. They still have those "holdouts" with no protection to worry about.


No, it's not a "protection upgrade", after 6 months most healthy people are still well protected from hospitalization/death.

The booster reduces the likelihood of spread.

Again a vaccinated person after 6 months is only marginally less likley to spread vs an unvaccinated person.
if the real aim is to reduce spread, we should have had a massive rollout of boosters already

Secondly, the federal government has abdicated their "leadership" position, and mostly left provinces to fend for themselves anyway.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Ah, since when did the vaccine (let alone booster) reduces the likelihood of "spread" when the argument has been the vaccinateds still spread Covid?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Ah, since when did the vaccine (let alone booster) reduces the likelihood of "spread" when the argument has been the vaccinateds still spread Covid?


That's not an argument I'm making.

My position is that if we have old vaccinations that no longer reduce spready as much, they should be boosted.
By holding back those boosters, it shows the government is either not concerned with spread, and would prefer to continue to villanize the unvaccinated.

never mind that most of the unvaccinated are kids, never mind that the vaccinate are by now possibly spreading more COVID than the "unvaccinated by choice."

I really think they're trying to scapegoat a group, because they don't want to admit what the experts knew back in early 2020. What we knew then, and know pretty much for sure now is that a vaccine alone is not likely to end this pandemic.

So lets get our boosters, slow the spread and hope that more effective treatments are developed.


----------



## andrewf

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Ah, since when did the vaccine (let alone booster) reduces the likelihood of "spread" when the argument has been the vaccinateds still spread Covid?


Vaccinated are still _capable_ of spread, but are much less likely to spread. Sort of like how condoms aren't 100% protection against pregnancy. Not the same as saying, why bother with condoms, you can get pregnant either way!


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Vaccinated are still _capable_ of spread, but are much less likely to spread. Sort of like how condoms aren't 100% protection against pregnancy. Not the same as saying, why bother with condoms, you can get pregnant either way!


Not entirely true, the data is showing the vaccines quickly lose their effectiveness at preventing spread, which is why they need to get those boosters out in 5-6 months, not the 8+ that they're proposing.

I don't know why the government is so against an effective vaccination strategy.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Too little too late
> 
> We have lots of vaccine, we have lots of capacity. Why are they delaying the boosters until AFTER CHRISTMAS.
> If we were serious we'd be focused on filling those appointments and getting boosters before the holiday season.. unless you don't think spread is the real problem.
> 
> Remember, most kids remain unvaccinated.


Aren’t the boosters a different dose? perhaps There are some mechanics that take time for altering the dosage given.

im sure we’ll see a rapid lowering of eligible ages. i Think the first big cohort is approaching (or has just approached) the 6 month mark. 

let’s remember that the “rush” to get a 2nd dose within 21-28 days turned out to be the less than desired schedule.


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... actually the number of "vaccinateds" accounting for hospitalization inched higher in the past week versus your last 2 weeks numbers:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> so what does this mean? The vaccine ain't working? or is it waning? Which ever way you cut the numbers/percentages/stats above, the "unvaccinated (include partially)" number is always higher than the "vaccinated(fully)" in terms of hospitalizations. Mind you these numbers do not offer any other considerations such as severity of illness, patient co-morbidities, duration of stay, etc. to assess the use up of additional hospital resources.
> 
> I think the ultimate litmus test on the decision "to vax" or "not-to-vax" is the death rate. How many died vaxxed and how many died unvaxxed.


I think BC is getting close to 90% vaccination for people over 12. If true they have a low number of unvaccinated so there will be less unvaccinated to get infected. Once everyone is vaccinated the only people getting covid will be breakthrough cases.


----------



## damian13ster

andrewf said:


> Vaccinated are still _capable_ of spread, but are much less likely to spread. Sort of like how condoms aren't 100% protection against pregnancy. Not the same as saying, why bother with condoms, you can get pregnant either way!


Haha, nice comparison. Would you trust a condom that is effective 20% of the time?
That's basically what we are forced to do


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> That's not an argument I'm making.


 ... of course, that's not the argument you're making with your usual spin-o-matic logic/ploy.



> My position is that if we have old vaccinations that no longer reduce spready as much, they should be boosted.


 ... back to my original question, only a simpler version. Since when was the vaccine considered a "spread reduction (aka reducing infection)" tool?



> By holding back those boosters, it shows the government is either not concerned with spread, and would prefer to continue to villanize the unvaccinated.


 ... makes no sense other than another convoluted conspiracy theory . First, why would the government (Ontario) not be concerned with another spread/wave, more hospitalizations, short staffing, etc. when they decided not to impose the vaccination mandate? So as to take the pleasure to "continue villanize (your term here) the unvaccinateds"? Whoa, make alot of sense, NOT.



> never mind that most of the unvaccinated are kids, never mind that the vaccinate are by now possibly spreading more COVID than the "unvaccinated by choice."


 ... way back in earlier posts, you stated the kids were NOT a source of spread. All of a sudden you're concerned they are and the spread is only to the unvaccinateds. Well, the vaccine for kids (5 to 11) is coming this month and already there's the question of parents' hesistancy in getting their kids vaccinated. Remember the vaccine is voluntary. So what're you going to do (or say) if the majority of parents don't want their kids vaccinated?



> I really think they're trying to scapegoat a group, because they don't want to admit what the experts knew back in early 2020. What we knew then, and know pretty much for sure now is that a vaccine alone is not likely to end this pandemic.


 ... scapegoat a group? Or is more like the case that group is self-defeating themselves. Again, remember the vaccine is voluntary. No one made the claim that the vaccine will end the pandemic. Not even the vaccine producer. In fact, the claim was the vaccine is NOT a silver bullet. It can only reduce severity of the disease and subsequently reduces the need for hospitalization so the hospitals don't get bogged down. I hope you do recall that the vaccine was developed for "emergency purposes" under Project Warp ... with credit to a Mr. Dump there.



> So lets get our boosters, slow the spread and hope that more effective treatments are developed.


 ... well, the Ontario government published the schedule for the administration of the boosters ... you (as in general population) just have to wait for your turn.

Meanwhile, if you're banking on the vaccine to "slow" the spread, I think a prayer may be better suited plus your mask, social distancing and hand-washings.

And yes, we can hope for more effective treatments (other than ventilators) will be developed - the anti-viral pill seems to one but then that takes time.


----------



## damian13ster

Pretty sure that every single vaccine that is actually mandatory other than the covid ones stop the spread or reduce it by 90+%, and for years or a lifetime.

This is the single most ineffective mandatory vaccine by a massive margin


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... of course, that's not the argument you're making with your usual spin-o-matic logic/ploy.


Ahh, you just don't like debating my actual position.



> ... back to my original question, only a simpler version. Since when was the vaccine considered a "spread reduction (aka reducing infection)" tool?


When the government and media started talking how the vaccine would end it.



> ... makes no sense other than another convoluted conspiracy theory . First, why would the government (Ontario) not be concerned with another spread/wave, more hospitalizations, short staffing, etc. when they decided not to impose the vaccination mandate? So as to take the pleasure to "continue villanize (your term here) the unvaccinateds"? Whoa, make alot of sense, NOT.


No conspiracy, just incompetence and lack of goals.



> ... way back in earlier posts, you stated the kids were NOT a source of spread. All of a sudden you're concerned they are and the spread is only to the unvaccinateds. Well, the vaccine for kids (5 to 11) is coming this month and already there's the question of parents' hesistancy in getting their kids vaccinated. Remember the vaccine is voluntary. So what're you going to do (or say) if the majority of parents don't want their kids vaccinated?


Kids in school don't seem to be spreading.
A higher portion of kids are getting hospitalized, because they're unvaxxed BY LAW, not by choice.



> ... well, the Ontario government published the schedule for the administration of the boosters ... you (as in general population) just have to wait for your turn.


We have hundreds of thousands of available appointments, they shouldn't delay at all.



> Meanwhile, if you're banking on the vaccine to "slow" the spread, I think a prayer may be better suited plus your mask, social distancing and hand-washings.


Why? The science says that a fully vaccinated person reduces spread for some time.
I want to do as much as is reasonably possible to stop/slow this, and vaccination is one of those things.

I'm looking at actual easy to do steps that can help, rather than sit in some perfect dreamworld that doesn't exist.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Ahh, you just don't like debating my actual position.
> 
> 
> When the government and media started talking how the vaccine would end it.
> 
> 
> No conspiracy, just incompetence and lack of goals.
> 
> 
> Kids in school don't seem to be spreading.
> A higher portion of kids are getting hospitalized, because they're unvaxxed BY LAW, not by choice.
> 
> 
> We have hundreds of thousands of available appointments, they shouldn't delay at all.
> 
> 
> Why? The science says that a fully vaccinated person reduces spread for some time.
> I want to do as much as is reasonably possible to stop/slow this, and vaccination is one of those things.
> 
> I'm looking at actual easy to do steps that can help, rather than sit in some perfect dreamworld that doesn't exist.


 ... so you call this a debate when it's a change in tune in disguise as a counter-argument. Actually it's become more like making no-sense leading to nonsense.

Start with part of the "kids in school don't seem to be spreading". [Guess you haven't been up to date with the news on the part, or maybe just your part of the world. The rate of infection is going up and up and up in Toronto with more schools closing due to outbreaks. No need for me to provide the links since this is only happening in my "dreamworld" and not your "real world", supposedly.] 

And then now you noticed a portion of kids are getting hospitalized, and yet the kids in school don't seem to be spreading it. So how do the kids get hospitalized if they ain't spreading it? Which is it?

And now you state it's "because they're unvaxxed BY LAW, not by choice". Really? Unvaxxed BY LAW ... when the vax (the kiddies' version) didn't even exists for kids. Now it does, do you want to change your tune to that there's no choice for the kids to be vaxxed, it's BY LAW they've to vax ... just like their dad and mom's who are anti-vax. BSPIN-O-MATIC.


----------



## Beaver101

Not sure if I need to put a warning for anti-vaxxers and their supporters with this newspiece. The moderators can decide on the need.

He nearly died from Covid after choosing not to get vaccinated. Later, he returned to apologize to the medical staff



> *
> 
> 
> 
> Gina Harkins, (c) 2021, The Washington Post
> Mon., November 8, 2021
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> *
> 
> 
> 
> _Richard Soliz, left, spent nearly a month at Seattle's Harborview Medical Center after testing positive for covid-19 in August. Soliz recently returned to the hospital, where he apologized to staff for not being vaccinated before his infection. (CNN)
> 
> Richard Soliz developed multiple blood clots on his lungs after catching the coronavirus this summer, and the staff at the Seattle hospital where he was being treated told him they were concerned one might move to his heart or brain.
> 
> The 54-year-old was on a heart-rate monitor, oxygen tank and eventually a ventilator. After being admitted to the hospital in late August, he spent 28 days at Harborview Medical Center, including two stints in the intensive care unit. His life, Soliz told The Washington Post, was "literally hanging on a thread."
> 
> Once he was well enough to leave in September, Soliz said he couldn't stop thinking about the staff.
> "My goodness, they saved my life," Soliz said. "In hindsight, I felt bad. *And I knew in my heart, in my mind and my consciousness that it all could've been avoided."*
> 
> Soliz returned to Harborview Medical Center late last month with a message for his doctor and others who'd treated him during his stay: He was sorry.
> 
> *"I deeply regret not making the decision to get vaccinated," he told one of his doctors.
> 
> Soliz, an artist, had opted against getting a coronavirus vaccine when they became widely available to anyone over the age of 16 earlier this year. *At least 223 million people in the United States have received at least one vaccine dose, according to The Post's tracker. Health experts stress that the vaccines are not only safe, but also protect people from severe illness during the pandemic that has killed more than 5 million globally.
> 
> Still, Soliz said he was confused by conflicting information.* He'd see one thing in the news, he said, only to have it negated by something he saw on social media or heard in the grocery store checkout line.*
> 
> "You couldn't go anywhere without somebody having something to say about it," Soliz said.
> 
> *Vaccine skepticism has been fueled by misinformation shared online, where social media companies have struggled to spot and remove anti-vaccine propaganda. **Fox News viewers have also gotten mixed messages about the vaccine*s. Soliz recalled hearing several now-debunked theories about the shots, including that they contained microchips - a claim The Post previously reported "would be physically impossible as they wouldn't fit through a needle."
> 
> So he put off getting immunized. When Soliz started feeling sick in August, he initially brushed it off as a flu bug. Then, the headache started.
> 
> "I can't even explain to you the intensity of that headache," he recalled. "I've never experienced a headache like that before ever in my life."
> 
> A fever followed and then shortness of breath, "and I realized, 'Hey, this is not the flu. It's covid,' " he said. He was admitted to Harborview Medical Center on Aug. 23.
> 
> While there, Soliz said he focused on beating the virus. But once he did, he said his mind returned to the health-care workers who cared for him and countless others. Opting against getting the vaccine, he said, "put fuel on the fire unnecessarily."
> 
> "I didn't do it deliberately - that was the bad part; that was the part that really disturbed me quite a bit," he told The Post. "I did not know the proper thing to do."
> 
> Fighting covid was like "a roller coaster," Soliz said, but the hospital staff treated him with compassion and kindness at every stage.
> 
> "You can't take people like that for granted," he told The Post.
> 
> James Town, a doctor at Harborview Medical Center, told CNN that spirits have been low among some hospital staff members. Covid cases spread "like wildfire" in Washington state this summer when the highly contagious delta variant was prevalent, KING 5 reported. Soliz's apology and gratitude for the care he received "was the kind of message that our staff needed to hear," Town told CNN.
> 
> *Soliz, who is now fully vaccinated, was left with scarring on his lungs from his time with covid, which causes him to become winded easily. He also still has trouble sleeping. He's urging those who are skeptical about the vaccine, as he was, to speak directly to their doctors.
> 
> "Don't be misled," he said.*_
> ...
Click to expand...


----------



## andrewf

damian13ster said:


> Haha, nice comparison. Would you trust a condom that is effective 20% of the time?
> That's basically what we are forced to do


Better than nothing!


----------



## zinfit

andrewf said:


> Better than nothing!


The level of protection for Pfizer drops to 47% after 6 months. The level protection for Moderna is something like 83% after 6 months. That is according to Lanclet. I don't know were this 20% figure is coming from.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> The level of protection for Pfizer drops to 47% after 6 months. The level protection for Moderna is something like 83% after 6 months. That is according to Lanclet. I don't know were this 20% figure is coming from.


Study that was posted here multiple times that show Pfizer drops to 22% after 5 months and 18% after 6.
If you are really interested then go back couple to pages. If you are not going to read it and then ask again 2 days later on where the data came from - then what's the point?


----------



## Plugging Along

damian13ster said:


> Study that was posted here multiple times that show Pfizer drops to 22% after 5 months and 18% after 6.
> If you are really interested then go back couple to pages. If you are not going to read it and then ask again 2 days later on where the data came from - then what's the point?


I went back over a month, and 15 pages, plus went through some of your more recent posts, I couldn't find this study that you posted. Could you please repost? It is possible that I missed it, but it was painful enough to go that far again. 

I found these two from you that quote 44% which is what I have read. Don't see the jump to 20%.



damian13ster said:


> Which one?
> You really need a source? CBC has article that efficacy of Pfizer is 44% in stopping the spread?





damian13ster said:


> Failure to catch a positive case is around 9% - that means 91% are caught.
> Vaccine provides only 44% protection - that means 56% are unprotected.


----------



## damian13ster

Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar | NEJM


Original Article from The New England Journal of Medicine — Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar



www.nejm.org





As more data and more studies emerge, one should revisit their beliefs and information.


----------



## sags

Russia.........40,000 new cases and 1200 deaths per day despite a 9 day lock down.

European countries designated as high risk by CDC. China lock down some areas.

Ontario is entering into a 4th wave, according to some experts.

We are losing this war on covid.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> We are losing this war on covid.


This does not follow.


----------



## Beaver101

Small changes could put Ont. back on track as COVID-19 cases steadily rise: Jüni

The signs are here - at least for Ontario. Will it be the 4th wave or the 5th? I'm losing track.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> Start with part of the "kids in school don't seem to be spreading".


Sure, based on the data I've seen kids in school don't seem to be spreading COVID very much.
The clearest evidence is the in school COVID numbers, it is normally just one case at a time, not clusters in the classrooms, which is what you'd expect if it was spreading there.
Do you have different data?



> [Guess you haven't been up to date with the news on the part, or maybe just your part of the world. The rate of infection is going up and up and up in Toronto with more schools closing due to outbreaks.


yes, because more kids are getting COVID.

The thing you're missing is the evidence that they're getting it *AT SCHOOL*
Data so far shows that's not happening.




> No need for me to provide the links since this is only happening in my "dreamworld" and not your "real world", supposedly.]


No need to provide the reference?
I'd like to see what data suggests i'ts massive outbreaks in schools.
I'll provide my data.





COVID-19 Alerts







www.tvdsb.ca




Look, it's mostly single cases in a school. If there were multiple cases, that could be in school spread, or a family.
Or when they did asymptomatic testing they'd find more cases and clusters at schools, which they didn't.
I posted those links. There is a pretty strong consensus that schools, with proper measures, are relatively safe and NOT a significant source of spread, Which was shocking, but now a year in the data here is pretty solid and well accepted.



> And then now you noticed a portion of kids are getting hospitalized, and yet the kids in school don't seem to be spreading it. So how do the kids get hospitalized if they ain't spreading it? Which is it?


Kids are getting COVID the same way everyone else is getting COVID.
I understand the point you're trying to make, the data just doesn't support it, and you're not forming a logical argument anyway.
The correlation that unvaccinated people get sick with COVID is well known. Kids remain one of the larger groups of unvaccinated people, it's not surprising we'd see more of them in hospital.


The spread simply doesn't seem to be happening in the schools, and you haven't posted any contradictory data.
I assume because you don't have it.




> And now you state it's "because they're unvaxxed BY LAW, not by choice". Really? Unvaxxed BY LAW ... when the vax (the kiddies' version) didn't even exists for kids.


I know, that's my complaint, we have millions of people who want a vaccine, but they won't get it to them.



> Now it does, do you want to change your tune to that there's no choice for the kids to be vaxxed, it's BY LAW they've to vax ... just like their dad and mom's who are anti-vax. BSPIN-O-MATIC.


No, it's the government that's holding back the vaccines. I want my third dose, and they should work to accelerate vaccine approval.
There is no change here.
Trudeau said, well before the election, that we'd have vaccines for every Canadian who wants them by the end of the summer, it's November and that's still not the case.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ontario is entering into a 4th wave, according to some experts.


I wouldn't listen to experts who can't count. We're heading into our 5th wave.












> We are losing this war on covid.


Not really, it's proceeding exactly as the experts thought it would. We just got really lucky with a vaccine which helped out a lot.


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> Pretty sure that every single vaccine that is actually mandatory other than the covid ones stop the spread or reduce it by 90+%, and for years or a lifetime.
> 
> This is the single most ineffective mandatory vaccine by a massive margin


They're really not comparable.

COVID19 is uniquely difficult.
Extended Asymptomatic spread period.
Short lasting immunity, several people have caught COVID more than once.

Vaccine isn't very effective at preventing infection.
It prevents death quite well.
It reduces spread only for a short period of time.


----------



## fireseeker

damian13ster said:


> Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar | NEJM
> 
> 
> Original Article from The New England Journal of Medicine — Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar
> 
> 
> 
> www.nejm.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As more data and more studies emerge, one should revisit their beliefs and information.


Yes indeed.

From the Oct. 21 study linked above about the persistence of protection from Pfizer:



> Effectiveness against any severe, critical, or fatal case of Covid-19 increased rapidly to 66.1% (95% CI, 56.8 to 73.5) by the third week after the first dose and reached 96% or higher in the first 2 months after the second dose; effectiveness persisted at approximately this level for 6 months.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Sure, based on the data I've seen kids in school don't seem to be spreading COVID very much.
> The clearest evidence is the in school COVID numbers, it is normally just one case at a time, not clusters in the classrooms, which is what you'd expect if it was spreading there.
> Do you have different data?
> 
> 
> yes, because more kids are getting COVID.
> 
> The thing you're missing is the evidence that they're getting it *AT SCHOOL*
> Data so far shows that's not happening.
> 
> 
> 
> No need to provide the reference?
> I'd like to see what data suggests i'ts massive outbreaks in schools.
> I'll provide my data.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Alerts
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tvdsb.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Look, it's mostly single cases in a school. If there were multiple cases, that could be in school spread, or a family.
> Or when they did asymptomatic testing they'd find more cases and clusters at schools, which they didn't.
> I posted those links. There is a pretty strong consensus that schools, with proper measures, are relatively safe and NOT a significant source of spread, Which was shocking, but now a year in the data here is pretty solid and well accepted.
> 
> 
> 
> Kids are getting COVID the same way everyone else is getting COVID.
> I understand the point you're trying to make, the data just doesn't support it, and you're not forming a logical argument anyway.
> The correlation that unvaccinated people get sick with COVID is well known. Kids remain one of the larger groups of unvaccinated people, it's not surprising we'd see more of them in hospital.
> 
> 
> The spread simply doesn't seem to be happening in the schools, and you haven't posted any contradictory data.
> I assume because you don't have it.
> 
> 
> 
> I know, that's my complaint, we have millions of people who want a vaccine, but they won't get it to them.
> 
> 
> No, it's the government that's holding back the vaccines. I want my third dose, and they should work to accelerate vaccine approval.
> There is no change here.
> Trudeau said, well before the election, that we'd have vaccines for every Canadian who wants them by the end of the summer, it's November and that's still not the case.


 ... why do you need "data" specifically? Like you're going to a lab to do scientific studies ?

Sorry my real dreamworld don't require data when there's real-world news. I don't need to know "exactly" the risk of getting Covid is .00000000012345% if all the kids got vaccinated and masked up at school.

Nor do I need to know that the spread is NOT done at school. [Then where? at home? living at the mall? ]

The simple fact is kids are humans too and Covid is spread through "infected" humans (repeat from an earlier post).

Why do you like to make things complicated or is just the nature of your engineering job?

Re 'booster" shots roll-out, just read headline somewhere that the "booster" was just approved by Health Canada. If so, then that explains part of the sloooowwww rollout.

Actuality is who the hell exactly knows what's going on over there in the rollout center over at Ottawa/Health Canada and Ontario government. It's not like you and I are in charge of the vaccine distributions.


----------



## Beaver101

Yukon thought it had the pandemic under control. Now it has the highest COVID-19 rate in Canada — what happened?

The article above is behind a paywall. But headline is enough to indicate the news trend on Covid ain't good. Even remote areas of the country aren't spared.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario already pausing easing restrictions that were announced last month and expected to take place Nov 15. Will now wait 28 days from Nov 15 to re-assess. My region, north of Toronto has seen a 95% increases week-over-week.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... why do you need "data" specifically? Like you're going to a lab to do scientific studies ?


No, you're just spouting nonsense with nothing to back it up.



> Sorry my real dreamworld don't require data when there's real-world news. I don't need to know "exactly" the risk of getting Covid is .00000000012345% if all the kids got vaccinated and masked up at school.


Go ahead, post the real world news that actually supports your point.



> Nor do I need to know that the spread is NOT done at school. [Then where? at home? living at the mall? ]


Well actually if you want to argue that it's spreading at schools, that's kind of foundational to the debate isn't it?



> The simple fact is kids are humans too and Covid is spread through "infected" humans (repeat from an earlier post).
> 
> Why do you like to make things complicated or is just the nature of your engineering job?


It's the nature of how I interpret the world.
Use facts and apply logic to understand how the world works.

Going back I said "Kids aren't spreading COVID in schools" you took issue with that.
I'm not sure why because while I posted data and reports to support that, you said you don't need to because it doesn't matter.

If it doesn't matter, why are you arguing against my point?



> Re 'booster" shots roll-out, just read headline somewhere that the "booster" was just approved by Health Canada. If so, then that explains part of the sloooowwww rollout.


Yes, that is my concern, we needed that approval months ago, and we're just getting it now.


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> ... why do you need "data" specifically? Like you're going to a lab to do scientific studies ?
> 
> Sorry my real dreamworld don't require data when there's real-world news. I don't need to know "exactly" the risk of getting Covid is .00000000012345% if all the kids got vaccinated and masked up at school.
> 
> Nor do I need to know that the spread is NOT done at school. [Then where? at home? living at the mall? ]
> 
> The simple fact is kids are humans too and Covid is spread through "infected" humans (repeat from an earlier post).
> 
> Why do you like to make things complicated or is just the nature of your engineering job?
> 
> Re 'booster" shots roll-out, just read headline somewhere that the "booster" was just approved by Health Canada. If so, then that explains part of the sloooowwww rollout.
> 
> Actuality is who the hell exactly knows what's going on over there in the rollout center over at Ottawa/Health Canada and Ontario government. It's not like you and I are in charge of the vaccine distributions.


i don’t think the approval slowed down the delivery. 3rd shots have been happening for weeks, if not months, in Ontario.

fyi. The Pfizer booster is the same dose as the original, while the Moderna booster is half the dose of the original.


----------



## sags

Too many outbreaks in schools, and people aren't observing restrictions in public gatherings....at sports events, concerts, restaurants, etc.

This virus should have faded away with vaccinations, but countries around the globe are still struggling with incoming waves and record numbers.

It looks like we will be going back into stricter restrictions again, likely to start on Boxing Day if we can hold out that long.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> No, you're just spouting nonsense with nothing to back it up.
> 
> 
> Go ahead, post the real world news that actually supports your point.
> 
> 
> Well actually if you want to argue that it's spreading at schools, that's kind of foundational to the debate isn't it?
> 
> 
> It's the nature of how I interpret the world.
> Use facts and apply logic to understand how the world works.


 .. here's the link to the "data" that I rely on. It doesn't take a rocket scientist or an engineering degree for that matter to see the first 2 paragraphs to show an "increase" of cases (aka spread) and this link is "current as in today Wed. November 10, 2021". Decipher the stats to your heart's delight.

Ontario schools see week-over-week rise in active COVID-19 cases for first time since early October



> _*Ontario’s publicly-funded school boards are reporting a week-over-week increase in active cases of COVID-19 for the first time in more than a month as the recent rise in infections in the broader community now appears to be spilling over into the public school system.*
> 
> The Ministry of Education says that there were *119* new school-related cases confirmed over a 24-hour period ending Tuesday afternoon, *up from 89 cases during the same time-period last week.*
> 
> *It is the highest number of new cases reported in any single 24-hour period since Oct. 5 and pushes the total number of active infections associated with public schools up to 999 compared to 943 at this time last week.*
> 
> Of the active cases 575 are linked to schools in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. That is *up from 490 *last Tuesday. ... _





> Going back I said "Kids aren't spreading COVID in schools" you took issue with that.
> I'm not sure why because while I posted data and reports to support that, you said you don't need to because it doesn't matter.


 ... no I didn't take issue with that. Why would I when I asked the questions - if the spread is not happening in school, then where is it happening? At home? At the mall? You never answered because you like to dance around with your responses and then tell me to support my statements with "data". Like I said, why do you need data when the "news" provides the data ... unless you want to study it like a scientist ... to achieve what IDK?



> If it doesn't matter, why are you arguing against my point?


 ... I'm not arguing against your point when you're the one who outright in front flat states I spout nonsense. In case, you can't read well either, the nonsense I'm spouting comes directly from the news so either the news is nonsense or you're reading it as nonsense. I'm just the messenger here. Therefore, your so-called "debate" is pointless.



> Yes, that is my concern, we needed that approval months ago, and we're just getting it now.


 ... that's not what you said. Now you change your tune. How fitting.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> .. here's the link to the "data" that I rely on. It doesn't take a rocket scientist or an engineering degree for that matter to see the first 2 paragraphs to show an "increase" of cases (aka spread) and this link is "current as in today Wed. November 10, 2021". Decipher the stats to your heart's delight.
> 
> Ontario schools see week-over-week rise in active COVID-19 cases for first time since early October


Ah, you're confusing # of cases with location of spread.
You're assuming that the spread happems where the cases are measured. But you have no data to support that assumption.



> ... no I didn't take issue with that. Why would I when I asked the questions - if the spread is not happening in school, then where is it happening?


I Dunno.
[/QUOTE]
At home? At the mall?
[/QUOTE]
Likely, but again I don't have data on where it is happening, only where it isn't.



> You never answered because you like to dance around with your responses and then tell me to support my statements with "data". Like I said, why do you need data when the "news" provides the data ... unless you want to study it like a scientist ... to achieve what IDK?


I did answer, my answer is IDK, because IDK.



> ... I'm not arguing against your point when you're the one who outright in front flat states I spout nonsense. In case, you can't read well either, the nonsense I'm spouting comes directly from the news so either the news is nonsense or you're reading it as nonsense. I'm just the messenger here. Therefore, your so-called "debate" is pointless.
> 
> ... that's not what you said. Now you change your tune. How fitting.


You're making unsupported assumptions.

I haven't changed my tune in over a year.


----------



## sags

The schools call them "outbreaks" when the transmission is person to person within the school.

There are outbreaks reported by the schools so there must be in school transmissions.

If the virus spreads into the community from the schools they don't know because they don't contact trace it.

I don't think they want to know.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Ah, you're confusing # of cases with location of spread.


 ... why would I be concerned with the "location" of spread? As if Covid is static and there's a lockdown right now. Lord.



> You're assuming that the spread happems where the cases are measured. But you have no data to support that assumption.


 ... your statement here makes no sense. Why wouldn't I "assume" the spread happens where the cases are measured? Huh? So where do you measure the spread if it doesn't "happen" there. Eg. measure the spread in your town of Timbuktoo when the number of infections are rising in Toronto?



> I Dunno.


At home? At the mall?
[/QUOTE]
Likely, but again I don't have data on where it is happening, only where it isn't. [/QUOTE] ... if that's the case, how can you make your statement of "Kids are NOT spreading it at school"? How do you know that the spread is not happening in school where the kids are most of the time. If the kids aren't in school, then either they're at home (junior school) or at the mall (high school) or their friends place. Do you know where your kids are?



> I did answer, my answer is IDK, because IDK.


 ... then say so and not AFTER saying I'm shooting nonsense.



> You're making unsupported assumptions.
> 
> I haven't changed my tune in over a year.


 ... whoa. Of course, you haven't changed your tune. Only because you don't listen to yourself.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario will pause plans to lift capacity limits in some high-risk settings next week

Before I finished typing the above post, here's the latest for Ontario (Wed. November 10, 2021 5:08PM):



> _... Ontario’s rolling seven-day average of new cases has risen more than 32 per cent over the last week and now stands at 502. ...
> 
> *Moore would not say whether the decision to pause the lifting of capacity limits in some high-risk settings would affect that timeline,* only saying that he would advise the government using the “best data and analysis of the risk for Ontarians” at that time.
> 
> In the meantime, he said that he expects Ontario will “continue to see a rise in cases” over the coming weeks and months but he said that is *his hope that it will “ebb and flow” and not place significant pressure on the health-care system.*
> 
> “I do believe we are in a good position. Slow and steady has done Ontario well and we must stay the course,” he said.
> 
> *... *_
> *Moore says that he will review the decision to pause the lifting of capacity limits for the high-risk settings in mid-December.*


* ... *Moore better be right on his "hope" or Ford is toast.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> *i don’t think the approval slowed down the delivery*. 3rd shots have been happening for weeks, if not months, in Ontario.
> 
> fyi. The Pfizer booster is the same dose as the original, while the Moderna booster is half the dose of the original.


 ... tell that to MrMatt who is crying out loud for his 3rd dose when the "recommendation" (by controlling governmental health-experts) is a "6 months lag" after the 2nd dose.


----------



## sags

Transmission in schools has been known since they reopened. 

The assumption was the number of infections would be minimal, but they couldn't explain the rising number of cases.









Ontario's top doctor says COVID-19 transmission in schools has been 'minimal' as ministry reports nearly 300 more cases


Ontario’s top health official is insisting that transmission of COVID-19 within schools continues to be 'minimal,' despite a pronounced rise in the number of school-related cases since classes resumed earlier this month.




toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> Ontario will pause plans to lift capacity limits in some high-risk settings next week
> 
> Before I finished typing the above post, here's the latest for Ontario (Wed. November 10, 2021 5:08PM):
> 
> * ... *Moore better be right on his "hope" or Ford is toast.


Wishing and hoping, hoping and praying......the Ford government makes up their own science.

Every time we get a handle on the virus, they open everything up and the cases go up again.

They keep repeating the same mistakes and expecting a different result.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Let's "hope" the Ford government is right. But I highly doubt it just looking around world news. 

Hell, we don't even have to go outside of the country - just look at the headline re Yukon from the link in my earlier post #6680.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Transmission in schools has been known since they reopened.
> 
> The assumption was the number of infections would be minimal, but they couldn't explain the rising number of cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario's top doctor says COVID-19 transmission in schools has been 'minimal' as ministry reports nearly 300 more cases
> 
> 
> Ontario’s top health official is insisting that transmission of COVID-19 within schools continues to be 'minimal,' despite a pronounced rise in the number of school-related cases since classes resumed earlier this month.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.ctvnews.ca


 ... and that newspiece is from September 21, 2021. If they "insist" they're right, then they're right ... until the kids land in the hospitals. Oops.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The schools call them "outbreaks" when the transmission is person to person within the school.


Really? I've seen many definitions of "outbreak". Which province defines "outbreak" that way?



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/school-outbreak-protocols-1.6187688


"While every province and territory defines the term "outbreak" differently, "



> There are outbreaks reported by the schools so there must be in school transmissions.


Maybe, depends on the definition of "outbreak".
As I pointed out the research, as well as the fact that most schools only end up with single cases as evidence in school transmission isn't very high.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... tell that to MrMatt who is crying out loud for his 3rd dose when the "recommendation" (by controlling governmental health-experts) is a "6 months lag" after the 2nd dose.


We're past 6 months, and unlike you I actually care about the spread of COVID and want to reduce it.
As it is most Canadians won't get their booster within 6 months, and that's a problem.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Transmission in schools has been known since they reopened.
> 
> The assumption was the number of infections would be minimal, but they couldn't explain the rising number of cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario's top doctor says COVID-19 transmission in schools has been 'minimal' as ministry reports nearly 300 more cases
> 
> 
> Ontario’s top health official is insisting that transmission of COVID-19 within schools continues to be 'minimal,' despite a pronounced rise in the number of school-related cases since classes resumed earlier this month.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.ctvnews.ca


It's not a lot of cases.
From that article 107 cases in TDSB schools.
They have 600 schools and 247 000 students. Only 107 cases is a very small number.



About Us


.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... and that newspiece is from September 21, 2021. If they "insist" they're right, then they're right ... until the kids land in the hospitals. Oops.


Okay, at this point you're clearly trolling.

The data shows, and the experts agree, transmission in schools following control measures is relatively low.

That doesn't mean kids aren't getting COVID, they clearly are.

As someone who cares about kids I want.
1. Vaccine approval for kids.
2. Boosters so we stop spreading it.

They're not crazy asks.


I don't even know what your obsession about cases of COVID19 in schools is, it seems kind of irrelevant. I'm not even sure why you brought it up, I initially assumed it was simply confusion taht you though rising cases in schools meant it was being spread in schools, but now I'm thinking you were just trying to muddle the debate.








Coronavirus (COVID-19), 2020 and 2021


Vaccinated are still capable of spread, but are much less likely to spread. Sort of like how condoms aren't 100% protection against pregnancy. Not the same as saying, why bother with condoms, you can get pregnant either way! Haha, nice comparison. Would you trust a condom that is effective 20%...




www.canadianmoneyforum.com


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> We're past 6 months, and unlike you I actually care about the spread of COVID and want to reduce it.
> As it is most Canadians won't get their booster within 6 months, and that's a problem.


6 months, 7 months, 8 months. Really, can any of those dates be that different? we were all hung up on the 21 day doses……and that appears to be less than ideal.
I think the timelines will Move up in ontario. More people don’t feel the vax works. lots of shots available in Toronto for those that want the 3rd.


----------



## zinfit

vaccines for kids is important for those with relevant health conditions. I suppose widespread vaccination might reduce the transmission by a few points.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> I think BC is getting close to 90% vaccination for people over 12. If true they have a low number of unvaccinated so there will be less unvaccinated to get infected. Once everyone is vaccinated the only people getting covid will be breakthrough cases.


Already, a pretty large number of people ending up in hospital in BC are fully vaccinated breakthrough cases, mostly people over age 70 and 80.

But I continue to be concerned about how significant this current wave in BC is. As you pointed out, the province has a very high vaccination rate, and yet the hospitals and ICUs are just as heavily loaded as with the previous worse wave.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/

If you go to that tracker and compare Ontario and BC, you'll see a massive difference in the most recent wave.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> 6 months, 7 months, 8 months. Really, can any of those dates be that different? we were all hung up on the 21 day doses……and that appears to be less than ideal.
> I think the timelines will Move up in ontario. More people don’t feel the vax works. lots of shots available in Toronto for those that want the 3rd.


Except for the fact that you can't get a third shot, they're there, and not being used.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> Already, a pretty large number of people ending up in hospital in BC are fully vaccinated breakthrough cases, mostly people over age 70 and 80.
> 
> But I continue to be concerned about how significant this current wave in BC is. As you pointed out, the province has a very high vaccination rate, and yet the hospitals and ICUs are just as heavily loaded as with the previous worse wave.
> 
> https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/
> 
> If you go to that tracker and compare Ontario and BC, you'll see a massive difference in the most recent wave.


A lot of this comes down to just the massive numbers of vaccinated people in Canada now. I heard or read a statistic a while back saying how many people were admitted to the hospital that were asymptomatically positive for covid. I mean, is it not symptoms that puts a person in the hospital in the first place? Then it was explained that everyone admitted to the hospital is tested for covid. So even if a person is being admitted to the hospital for any other reason, if they test positive for covid, they end up on the covid hospital admissions list for that day.

So think about this. We know the vaccines do not work well at keeping infection at bay. They really only keep severe illness at bay and help with transmission by reducing the time you should have your infection. If you have other problems in your body, that time of infection will be increased, simply because you are fighting the infection now with a disabled body.

So basically, because so many people are vaccinated, and a certain number of those people will need to go to the hospital on any given day from any cause (the hospital would not even exist if it was not estimated to fill up with those people ill or injured from all other causes on a given day), *many people, who are infected with covid but would not normally have even showed up as an infection (not sick enough to bother getting tested), are now showing up as a hospital admission...for covid.*


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Except for the fact that you can't get a third shot, they're there, and not being used.


They’re being used in ontario. My dad has an appointment and many neighbours of mine got theirs.

would you suggest they open up shots for the general public immediately? I think that may push seniors who aren‘t as nimble with appointment booking to the back of the line.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> We're past 6 months, and *unlike you I actually care* about the spread of COVID and want to reduce it.


 ... really? I would have believed you that you honestly care about reducing the spread of COVID (or doing your part in society) until you made the assumption (typical when can't counter-argue) of "unlike you". 

So here, I'll confirm your false (if not of questionable intention) assumption and recall to your memory that based on all your posts (that always have some politics interjected) thus far, your "main" concern was and still is with the "unvaccinateds" being made a "scapegoat" (from your POV) because of the vaccine mandates. And just because the majority has chosen to vaccinate (aka doing their part), the unvaccinateds continues to be "villanized" by the vaccinateds for the spread.

If you want to continue thinking along this line, then you might as well state the unvaccinateds are not the spreaders (ie, not a concern), and that the vaccinateds are the problems with continuously being vaccinated, prolonging this pandemic. ie. you can vaccinate the vaccinateds or scream for your nth shot to the end of time, when (recall) all it took was 1 person (unvaccinated then) to snowball the infection-chain.



> As it is most Canadians won't get their booster within 6 months, and that's a problem.


 ... repeat my questions, are you in charge of 1. obtaining the vaccine, and 2. distributing it? No, then you're at mercy of those who are.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Okay, at this point you're clearly trolling.
> 
> The data shows, and the experts agree, transmission in schools following control measures is relatively low.


 ... not unless you're trolling. Low doesn't mean none or no infection. Infections spread, no?



> I don't even know what your obsession about cases of COVID19 in schools is, it seems kind of irrelevant. I'm not even sure why you brought it up, I initially assumed it was simply confusion taht you though rising cases in schools meant it was being spread in schools, but now I'm thinking you were just trying to muddle the debate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus (COVID-19), 2020 and 2021
> 
> 
> Vaccinated are still capable of spread, but are much less likely to spread. Sort of like how condoms aren't 100% protection against pregnancy. Not the same as saying, why bother with condoms, you can get pregnant either way! Haha, nice comparison. Would you trust a condom that is effective 20%...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.canadianmoneyforum.com


 ... no, re-read your post ##6,852 · 3 d ago



> ... _Remember, most kids remain unvaccinated_.


 ... so you started (aka brought it up) with your concern/mention of the "kids". And where do kids spend most of their time at? Isn't it at school? Then by logic, shouldn't school be the focus?

Let me re-ask - if infection isn't happening at school, then where is it happening? Home? The mall? Friends' place? Your pick. And no I don't have stats (other than the news link with the stats) for those locations of home, mall & friends' place to back up my statement that infections are not only taking place but increasing in schools.



> That doesn't mean kids aren't getting COVID, they clearly are.
> 
> As someone who cares about kids I want.
> 1. Vaccine approval for kids.
> 2. Boosters so we stop spreading it.
> 
> They're not crazy asks.


 ... no, both 1. and 2. are not crazy to ask.

1. Vaccine (its approval already done *** *_) _for kids (5 to 11) is coming this month (for Ontario). * *EDIT* 81 additional school-related COVID-19 cases confirmed in Ontario today



> Health Canada has not yet approved a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11 but Pfizer’s application for pediatric doses is currently under review.


 ... *** *must be for the USA with Canada to likely follow suit. Meanwhile a plan for the kiddies' rollout is on its way:



> On Wednesday, the City of Toronto released more details of its plan to inoculate that age cohort and identified 30 neighbourhoods that will host school-based clinics during the initial rollout.


2. Boosters ain't gonna to "stop spreading it" when there're still holes in the can. Since you're of sound mind (and I'm not after answering all your duhs), I'll leave it to you to figure out who represents the holes in the can. Don't forget that kids have rights too in getting vaccinated or not.


----------



## damian13ster

Precisely.
Vaccinated people spread far more than unvaccinated people.
That's because unvaccinated people get tested to still function in society.
Vaccinated don't.

Vaccinated person with infection spreads
Unvaccinated person with infection spreads.

Unvaccinated are currently only ones who regularly check whether they are infected.
If I chose to disclose my status to employer I would literally never have to get tested and could spread for weeks being completely oblivious to the fact. 
As 'unvaccinated' person in the eyes of the employer, I get tested frequently and would catch infection before going on for weeks infecting others


----------



## Spudd

damian13ster said:


> Precisely.
> Vaccinated people spread far more than unvaccinated people.
> That's because unvaccinated people get tested to still function in society.
> Vaccinated don't.
> 
> Vaccinated person with infection spreads
> Unvaccinated person with infection spreads.
> 
> Unvaccinated are currently only ones who regularly check whether they are infected.
> If I chose to disclose my status to employer I would literally never have to get tested and could spread for weeks being completely oblivious to the fact.
> As 'unvaccinated' person in the eyes of the employer, I get tested frequently and would catch infection before going on for weeks infecting others


Do you have any stats on what percentage of jobs require testing if unvaccinated?


----------



## Money172375

damian13ster said:


> Precisely.
> Vaccinated people spread far more than unvaccinated people.
> That's because unvaccinated people get tested to still function in society.
> Vaccinated don't.
> 
> Vaccinated person with infection spreads
> Unvaccinated person with infection spreads.
> 
> Unvaccinated are currently only ones who regularly check whether they are infected.
> If I chose to disclose my status to employer I would literally never have to get tested and could spread for weeks being completely oblivious to the fact.
> As 'unvaccinated' person in the eyes of the employer, I get tested frequently and would catch infection before going on for weeks infecting others


These are a lot of general statements. I don’t think the majority of the unvaxxed Are getting tested regularly.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Precisely.
> Vaccinated people spread far more than unvaccinated people.
> That's because unvaccinated people get tested to still function in society.
> Vaccinated don't.
> 
> Vaccinated person with infection spreads
> Unvaccinated person with infection spreads.
> 
> Unvaccinated are currently only ones who regularly check whether they are infected.
> If I chose to disclose my status to employer I would literally never have to get tested and could spread for weeks being completely oblivious to the fact.
> As 'unvaccinated' person in the eyes of the employer, I get tested frequently and would catch infection before going on for weeks infecting others


 .. precisely what?


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... so you started (aka brought it up) with your concern/mention of the "kids". And where do kids spend most of their time at? Isn't it at school? Then by logic, shouldn't school be the focus?


Absolutely, and schools were a very heavy focus.
But once they realize that schools aren't the primary spread location, they should look to where it's actually happening. Why keep focusing on a place that isn't a problem.



> Let me re-ask - if infection isn't happening at school, then where is it happening? Home? The mall? Friends' place? Your pick. And no I don't have stats (other than the news link with the stats) for those locations of home, mall & friends' place to back up my statement that infections are not only taking place but increasing in schools.


Let me re-answer then.
I don't know. 



> 2. Boosters ain't gonna to "stop spreading it" when there're still holes in the can. Since you're of sound mind (and I'm not after answering all your duhs), I'll leave it to you to figure out who represents the holes in the can. Don't forget that kids have rights too in getting vaccinated or not.


Boosters should likely return people back to the "recently vaccinated" effectiveness against spread.
Which means that boosters will help stop spread.

Please show any data or idea how a booster shot wouldn't _help_ accomplish this goal.


----------



## damian13ster

Spudd said:


> Do you have any stats on what percentage of jobs require testing if unvaccinated?


No, I do not. it would be quite useless statistic though, because there is more to life than work and pretty much all activities at least in Alberta require testing. 
Also, government actively discourages testing. That's the problem and that's why we have 3rd, 4th, and 5th wave, and will have many more. 

They are working to keep the pandemic going as long as possible


----------



## MrMatt

damian13ster said:


> They are working to keep the pandemic going as long as possible


I don't think so.
I think they've just made a number of bad decisions that are leading to a suboptimal result.

Really government is full of normal people, and they're likely to make lots of mistakes. IMO they've done pretty good, though there is a lot they could have done better, there is FAR more they could have done worse.


----------



## damian13ster

MrMatt said:


> I don't think so.
> I think they've just made a number of bad decisions that are leading to a suboptimal result.
> 
> Really government is full of normal people, and they're likely to make lots of mistakes. IMO they've done pretty good, though there is a lot they could have done better, there is FAR more they could have done worse.


I am not assuming its their intention to do it. Could be political reasons, or there is significant chance they are simply unintelligent enough that despite good intentions they are extending the pandemic. 
It doesn't really matter though if it is intentional or because of stupidity - result is the same. And result is what counts


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> So basically, because so many people are vaccinated, and a certain number of those people will need to go to the hospital on any given day from any cause (the hospital would not even exist if it was not estimated to fill up with those people ill or injured from all other causes on a given day), *many people, who are infected with covid but would not normally have even showed up as an infection (not sick enough to bother getting tested), are now showing up as a hospital admission...for covid.*


That's a very good point and I'm glad you pointed this out.

Also just think of the statistics. Say that 90% of adults are vaccinated. This means just about anyone who ends up in hospital, for any reason, is highly likely to be vaccinated.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> I don't think so.
> I think they've just made a number of bad decisions that are leading to a suboptimal result.
> 
> Really government is full of normal people, and they're likely to make lots of mistakes. IMO they've done pretty good, though there is a lot they could have done better, there is FAR more they could have done worse.





damian13ster said:


> I am not assuming its their intention to do it. Could be political reasons, or there is significant chance they are simply unintelligent enough that despite good intentions they are extending the pandemic.
> It doesn't really matter though if it is intentional or because of stupidity - result is the same. And result is what counts


that’s not what your words say……”they are working to keep the pandemic going”. This implies they are purposely dragging it out. This is where the current age of “politics” is at. Then you backtracked. Words are important.

Do you really think any politician is really trying to extend the pandemic? What politician in their right mind would want that? They are mostly ego-centric……all Their policies and probably most of the reasons they entered politics are out the window becuase they have to react to Covid. It’s nonsense.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Do you really think any politician is really trying to extend the pandemic? What politician in their right mind would want that? They are mostly ego-centric……all Their policies and probably most of the reasons they entered politics are out the window becuase they have to react to Covid. It’s nonsense.


I'm not sure, some of them are clearly narcissistic sociopaths who don't care how many people they hurt to advance their agenda.

I think the VAST majority are doing there best, and it's hard to imagine it for COVID, but it is possible some actually see this as an opportunity to advance other objectives.
For example "COVID misinformation" has been a really convenient excuse to rush in censorship into social media. And this is most certainly being abused.


----------



## sags

Canadians support strong public health safety measures, so politicians are judged accordingly.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> That's a very good point and I'm glad you pointed this out.
> 
> Also just think of the statistics. Say that 90% of adults are vaccinated. This means just about anyone who ends up in hospital, for any reason, is highly likely to be vaccinated.


Here is the article I was talking about. It was in the Lancet. Basically during their study 46% of breakthrough hospitalizations (fully vaccinated), were from asymptomatic cases of covid. 





__





DEFINE_ME






www.thelancet.com







> Patients deemed to have a breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection—ie, the 54 patients who were fully vaccinated—were evaluated for illness severity. Among this cohort, we found that 25 (46%) patients were asymptomatic (admitted to hospital for a non-COVID-19-related diagnosis but with an incidental positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2) of covid.


With the very large number of vaccinated people in our population now I would suspect most hospitals are probably experiencing this same issue. So I guess you pretty much have to divide by 2 the number of vaccinated people in hospitals to get a true picture of breakthrough cases. If you are healthy and young you then need to separate out the co-morbidities and older age related cases and when you are done you will realize that for the fairly healthy, under age 65 or so, covid is no longer a problem for the fully vaccinated.


----------



## sags

I am reminded of the joke that used to get passed around which eliminated the number of taxpayers by excluding the young, the old, the sick, the unemployed, the disabled, the students, low income workers, this group and that group.....and it reduced the number of people paying taxes down to just 2.........me and you.


----------



## OptsyEagle

The main point is that with so many people vaccinated now, and so many people with co-morbidities, and so many people of an age where the vaccines effectiveness is reduced, when you add to that this confusion within the hospital admissions data, we can quickly lose touch with our own personal risk level.

For the vast majority of fully vaccinated people covid is no longer dangerous, just annoying and perhaps occasionally distracting.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Absolutely, and schools were a very heavy focus.
> But once they realize that schools aren't the primary spread location, they should look to where it's actually happening. Why keep focusing on a place that isn't a problem.
> ...


 ... no, schools will remain a focus as long as the kids are not vaccinated. Recall your earlier "logic", weren't you concerned with kids being "unvaccinated" or its vaccine not approved yet?

The focus should be *all* places where there're unvaccinated people *and* *people not following the "rules" or guidelines of masking, social distancing, and hand-washing since the infection-chain will remain continuous.*



> Boosters should likely return people back to the "recently vaccinated" effectiveness against spread.
> Which means that boosters will help stop spread.
> 
> Please show any data or idea how a booster shot wouldn't _help_ accomplish this goal.


 ... why don't you show me the data where the "unvaccinateds" have helped (never mind will) in reducing the spread? You either got a nice distraction tactic there or you just haven't changed your beliefs.

Simple questions: how long do you think the unvaccinateds are going to hold out for? Until the 'end' (whenever that is or if there is one) of this pandemic?


----------



## sags

The patience of the vaccinated is wearing thin.

Austria is likely going to lock down the un-vaccinated.









Austrian leader says lockdown for the unvaccinated is likely


Austria's chancellor on Thursday stepped up threats of lockdown measures for unvaccinated people, as new coronavirus cases in the Alpine nation are soaring. The country's worst-affected province said it plans to take that step next week.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Beaver101

^ A "lockdown" "on" "the" "unvaccinateds". Wow.


----------



## damian13ster

Their rules for unvaccinated are still less stringent than in Canada.
Article has sensational headline but there is still much more freedoms in Austria, including after supposed 'lockdown' which has no legal basis yet (also included in the article) than there is in Canada

Of course they are still trying to push the lie that vaccinations will end the pandemic, but oh well. No one with a slightest ability to apply common sense believes that anymore. Countries with 85%+ of vaccination rate have worst waves than they had with no vaccinations.
Vaccines are good, but not good enough to end the pandemic


----------



## sags

Many countries in Europe are adding restrictions or lock downs.

It is a warning to Canada to get prepared. We should consider closing all international travel if the situation continues to worsen.









Dutch leader announces 'unpleasant' three-week partial lockdown


The partial lockdown, which begins on Saturday night, will see bars, restaurants and supermarkets close at 20:00 and non-essential stores shut their doors at 18:00.




www.euronews.com


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... no, schools will remain a focus as long as the kids are not vaccinated.


Why? If schools aren't spreading why should they be a focus.



> Recall your earlier "logic", weren't you concerned with kids being "unvaccinated" or its vaccine not approved yet?


I am concerned with kids being unvaccinated.

These aren't contradictory points. Though you seem to think they are.
Kids need to get vaccinated so they're protected.
Schools shouldn't be a primary focus, because we know they're not a significant problem.

FYI, nobody is calling for increased scrutiny at car washes, why? because we don't think they're a problem.



> The focus should be *all* places where there're unvaccinated people *and* *people not following the "rules" or guidelines of masking, social distancing, and hand-washing since the infection-chain will remain continuous.*


I disagree, obviously.
I think we should focus on all places and activities that spread COVID. I don't care what happens in places where COVID19 isn't being spread. Why would I?




> ... why don't you show me the data where the "unvaccinateds" have helped (never mind will) in reducing the spread? You either got a nice distraction tactic there or you just haven't changed your beliefs.


I don't know of any such data, I think the "unvaccinateds" are making it worse. I've stated this repeatedly, it's one of my main points of contention that we're undervaxxed, and the government is needlessly delaying refreshing our vaccinations with boosters. I've been complaining how they've been holding back vaccination efforts since the summer.

I'm not going to pull data to try and prove whatever point your trying to make.
Why don't you show me the data where the earth is flat?




> Simple questions: how long do you think the unvaccinateds are going to hold out for? Until the 'end' (whenever that is or if there is one) of this pandemic?


I think they'll hold out until they're dead, or at least most of them.
The more draconian measures might force some of them, but I think many of the unvaccinated anti-vaxxers will never change their minds.


----------



## KaeJS

How is this thread still alive?

I have tried very hard for my sake and the sake of people on this forum to not post in here.

But honestly -

Does anyone still give a shyt about COVID?
Where is it?
I can't see it.
I can't feel it.
I can't hear it.

Yet somehow... It still seems to be "around"...


----------



## sags

Cases in schools in Ontario.

It sure looks like a lot of infections and outbreaks to me.



https://www.covid19inontario.com/school-tracker


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> Does anyone still give a shyt about COVID?
> Where is it?
> I can't see it.


In Canada, about 22 people a day die from COVID and 1,900 people a day are hospitalized.

Europe has a bad wave developing, so we need to stay vigilant because something similar could happen here.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> In Canada, about 22 people a day die from COVID and 1,900 people a day are hospitalized.
> 
> Europe has a bad wave developing, so we need to stay vigilant because something similar could happen here.


That's nice.

And a child dies from starvation every few seconds. But I'm still over here drinking wine and eating 3000+ calories a day.

At what point do we draw the line on where we care?
When it's Canadian? When it's provincial? When it's our family? When it's yourself?

People die of hunger every other second... And y'all are talking about 20+ deaths per day due to COVID throughout all of Canada lol.

"Do your part."


----------



## sags

james4beach said:


> In Canada, about 22 people a day die from COVID and 1,900 people a day are hospitalized.
> 
> Europe has a bad wave developing, so we need to stay vigilant because something similar could happen here.


They have discovered covid rising in animals, including deer herds, dogs, .....etc.

The scientists say the virus is already mutating within the animal population and are watching for a more dangerous mutation.

The jump from animal to animal and back to humans again is a breeding ground for mutations.


----------



## damian13ster

Yes, virus mutates. It mutates in humans, it mutates in animals. It jumps in between. In other groundbreaking scientific findings: grass is green, earth revolves around the sun, and gravity exists


----------



## sags

The Delta variant was worse than the previous mutations.

The more time we give it........the more likely there will be a deadlier mutation.

If that happens.......embrace lockdowns and kiss the economy goodbye.


----------



## zinfit

MrMatt said:


> I'm not sure, some of them are clearly narcissistic sociopaths who don't care how many people they hurt to advance their agenda.
> 
> I think the VAST majority are doing there best, and it's hard to imagine it for COVID, but it is possible some actually see this as an opportunity to advance other objectives.
> For example "COVID misinformation" has been a really convenient excuse to rush in censorship into social media. And this is most certainly being abused.


With Chretien government there was a fair number of very talented ministers. Marin, Tobin, Doug Young , Mclaren, Manley and others. Harper had a strong front bench with Flarety, Baird , Toews, Prentice and others. I don't think any of the Trudeau gang would make the front bench with either of those governments. Times have changed. Really successful and talented people avoid politics like the plaque.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> And a child dies from starvation every few seconds. But I'm still over here drinking wine and eating 3000+ calories a day.


The stats I gave were from Canada. There are quite a few people in hospital with COVID, not overseas in distant countries, but here at home.

Here are BC's stats for the month of October:

age 30-39 ... 46 people admitted to ICU, *6 dead*
age 40-49 ... 44 people admitted to ICU, *7 dead*
age 50-59 ... 75 admitted to ICU, *22 dead*
age 60-69 ... 102 admitted to ICU, *31 dead*
age 70-79 ... 75 admitted to ICU, *42 dead*
age 80-89 ... 8 admitted to ICU, *62 dead*
age 90+ ... 2 admitted to ICU, *25 dead*
You really don't think COVID is an issue? If you have trouble calibrating whether these numbers are worrying, you should consider that in October, the number of ICU beds used in BC pretty much matched the peak that was seen at any other time during the pandemic.

Similar things can and probably will happen in Ontario.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> You really don't think COVID is an issue?


Nope.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The Delta variant was worse than the previous mutations.
> 
> The more time we give it........the more likely there will be a deadlier mutation.
> 
> If that happens.......embrace lockdowns and kiss the economy goodbye.


What do you mean "the more time we give it"?
Like do you think it's actually possible to eliminate? We've known that was incredibly unlikely since the beginning, go back to my March 2020 posts.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> The stats I gave were from Canada. There are quite a few people in hospital with COVID, not overseas in distant countries, but here at home.
> 
> Here are BC's stats for the month of October:
> 
> age 30-39 ... 46 people admitted to ICU, *6 dead*
> age 40-49 ... 44 people admitted to ICU, *7 dead*
> age 50-59 ... 75 admitted to ICU, *22 dead*
> age 60-69 ... 102 admitted to ICU, *31 dead*
> age 70-79 ... 75 admitted to ICU, *42 dead*
> age 80-89 ... 8 admitted to ICU, *62 dead*
> age 90+ ... 2 admitted to ICU, *25 dead*
> You really don't think COVID is an issue? If you have trouble calibrating whether these numbers are worrying, you should consider that in October, the number of ICU beds used in BC pretty much matched the peak that was seen at any other time during the pandemic.
> 
> Similar things can and probably will happen in Ontario.


So of the 3250 people expected to die in one month in BC, 195 of them died from covid.

Is it a big problem? I'm not sure


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Why? If schools aren't spreading why should they be a focus.
> 
> 
> I am concerned with kids being unvaccinated.
> 
> These aren't contradictory points. Though you seem to think they are.
> Kids need to get vaccinated so they're protected.
> Schools shouldn't be a primary focus, because we know they're not a significant problem.
> 
> FYI, nobody is calling for increased scrutiny at car washes, why? because we don't think they're a problem.
> 
> 
> I disagree, obviously.
> I think we should focus on all places and activities that spread COVID. I don't care what happens in places where COVID19 isn't being spread. Why would I?
> 
> 
> 
> I don't know of any such data, I think the "unvaccinateds" are making it worse. I've stated this repeatedly, it's one of my main points of contention that we're undervaxxed, and the government is needlessly delaying refreshing our vaccinations with boosters. I've been complaining how they've been holding back vaccination efforts since the summer.
> 
> I'm not going to pull data to try and prove whatever point your trying to make.
> Why don't you show me the data where the earth is flat?
> 
> 
> 
> I think they'll hold out until they're dead, or at least most of them.
> The more draconian measures might force some of them, but I think many of the unvaccinated anti-vaxxers will never change their minds.


 ...


----------



## Beaver101

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...vaccine-mandates-protest-kelowna-bc-1.6246356

I'm surprised no one posted this. Disgusting and disgraceful -only in Canada.


----------



## OptsyEagle

You can kind of tell these people are of a much lower level of average intelligence. They have an agenda, of which I can fully understand, but they obviously have no idea how to obtain public support to further that agenda. They picket outside hospitals and now remembrance day ceremonies. Seriously. No one in that group saw the problem with that. Do they not have anyone with a set of brains to stop them from making these grave mistakes and perhaps even provide a few good ideas?

I mean the pure antivaxxer I can understand. I suspect a lot of those have no more motivation for their stance but to piss the rest of us off, but the anti-mandate people, they are about to lose their jobs. They really should attempt the opposite, if they want to see any public support for their cause.


----------



## james4beach

OptsyEagle said:


> You can kind of tell these people are of a much lower level of average intelligence. They have an agenda, of which I can fully understand, but they obviously have no idea how to obtain public support to further that agenda. They picket outside hospitals and now remembrance day ceremonies. Seriously. No one in that group saw the problem with that. Do they not have anyone with a set of brains to stop them from making these grave mistakes and perhaps even provide a few good ideas?
> 
> I mean the pure antivaxxer I can understand. I suspect a lot of those have no more motivation for their stance but to piss the rest of us off, but the anti-mandate people, they are about to lose their jobs. They really should attempt the opposite, if they want to see any public support for their cause.


I think that's a bit unfair.

There are anti vaccine people anti mask people, and they're being dumb for sure.

But there are also other people -- well informed and well meaning people -- who are arguing that COVID is no longer a big concern in Canada. There's a legitimate argument to make there. For example, if (a) the load on hospitals is way down and (b) the number of deaths is entering noise, then one can make a good argument that COVID is no longer a concern.

However I would argue that it's currently still loading up hospitals (at least here in BC) which means it's still a big deal. I predict that it's also going to load Ontario hospitals in the coming months.

I think that at the current, very low levels of COVID in Ontario, people are jumping to the conclusion that COVID is over. I think they are extremely wrong and should look at other jurisdictions around them to see what eventually happens when one relaxes restrictions. Ontario is enjoying a great situation today due to some very serious restrictions earlier.

As they open up Ontario, COVID is going to come roaring back.


----------



## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> I think that's a bit unfair.
> 
> There are anti vaccine people anti mask people, and they're being dumb for sure.
> 
> But there are also other people -- well informed and well meaning people -- who are arguing that COVID is no longer a big concern in Canada. There's a legitimate argument to make there. For example, if (a) the load on hospitals is way down and (b) the number of deaths is entering noise, then one can make a good argument that COVID is no longer a concern.
> 
> However I would argue that it's currently still loading up hospitals (at least here in BC) which means it's still a big deal. I predict that it's also going to load Ontario hospitals in the coming months.
> 
> I think that at the current, very low levels of COVID in Ontario, people are jumping to the conclusion that COVID is over. I think they are extremely wrong and should look at other jurisdictions around them to see what eventually happens when one relaxes restrictions. Ontario is enjoying a great situation today due to some very serious restrictions earlier.
> 
> As they open up Ontario, COVID is going to come roaring back.


My comment was not a reflection on the validity of their cause and whether or not smart or dumb people would get behind it. It was a comment directed at the stupidity of how they have gone about fighting for their cause.

If I decided to get behind the non-mandating vaccine cause I would have pleaded with these people to find better places to protest so as to garner more public support. There are lots of better places. Many vaccinated people support non-mandating of vaccines, but few of them support protesting outside hospitals and disrupting remembrance day ceremonies.

That was my point. It reflects poorly on them and to not see it for themselves says a lot about their intelligence.


----------



## damian13ster

I think a lot of that is on the media though. Unless protests happen at the facilities and sites you have mentioned, they aren't being covered. So people are getting desperate because they can't have their voices heard.
Is it smart and helpful - it is not. It is desperation which is caused by what media and government are doing.
Unfortunately desperation often leads to stupid choices.


----------



## damian13ster

Italian National Institute of Health has stated that 2.9% of COVID deaths were without comorbidities.
Hypertension, obesity, type-2 diabetes accounted for vast majority of deaths - we have fat pandemic.



https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_5_october_2021.pdf


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Cases in schools in Ontario.
> 
> It sure looks like a lot of infections and outbreaks to me.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.covid19inontario.com/school-tracker
> 
> 
> View attachment 22358


Really?
Most schools only had 1 or two cases, not really evidence of massive in school spread.


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> My comment was not a reflection on the validity of their cause and whether or not smart or dumb people would get behind it. It was a comment directed at the stupidity of how they have gone about fighting for their cause.
> 
> If I decided to get behind the non-mandating vaccine cause I would have pleaded with these people to find better places to protest so as to garner more public support. There are lots of better places. Many vaccinated people support non-mandating of vaccines, but few of them support protesting outside hospitals and disrupting remembrance day ceremonies.
> 
> That was my point. It reflects poorly on them and to not see it for themselves says a lot about their intelligence.


 ... if not dumb, stupid or ignorant, then it's the arrogance.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... if not dumb, stupid or ignorant, then it's the arrogance.


Or it's the fact that they're being ignored, so they do something where it's harder to ignore them.

That's part of the problem, there was never any real attempt to understand and address the concerns. They're not being listened to, so they're going to MAKE you listen.

I agree that this is counterproductive, but they don't have many options, other than waiting it out, which doesn't work well when you've been stripped of your workplace rights and fired without compensation, or your due benefits.

FWIW I don't see how refusing a new condition of employment is legitimate grounds for termination. Remember, until COVID almost no jobs had a vaccine requirement as a condition of employment..


----------



## sags

Most people aren't interested in wasting their time debating uninformed people with no knowledge or expertise.

If you had a heart issue, would you consult with a cardiologist or with strangers who didn't believe any treatment was necessary ?


----------



## Beaver101

^ Especially we're almost "2 years (and still going)" in a pandemic.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Most people aren't interested in wasting their time debating uninformed people with no knowledge or expertise.
> 
> If you had a heart issue, would you consult with a cardiologist or with strangers who didn't believe any treatment was necessary ?


When the head cardiologist says obviously wrong things about heart attack risk.. I'll start listening to the strangers who make sense.
Remember Dr Tam said we didn't need masks, that was absolutely ridiculous and wrong at the time.

Also you have to remember there are doctors and other health professionals who don't want the current vaccines, and there are people who have had serious reactions who legitimately don't want a second dose.


----------



## sags

Dr. Tam said that during the first wave of the first virus.

In case you haven't noticed the virus has mutated several times and is a completely different virus now.....highly infectious and airborne.

According to you, there is no need to sterilize operating rooms or quarantine patients, because infections aren't really a big deal.

Patients have entered a hospital for treatment, contracted covid while in the hospital and died from it. But I guess that isn't a big deal either.

We had entire floors in our hospitals closed down due to the spread of covid, while patients had to wait for treatment.

People have the right not to vaccinate, but they don't have the right to expose everyone else to the virus.


----------



## damian13ster

The first version was also highly infectious and airborne. Tam was simply wrong. It happens. And when she is wrong she needs to be called out on it


----------



## sags

The first version wasn't nearly as infectious and didn't affect young people or children, so we could isolate the people most at risk.

The truth of the matter is that most masks are useless anyways. If they aren't of N95 quality they don't stop the virus.

But they are useful as a visual reminder for people to stay away from each other and distance from each other does matter.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> The truth of the matter is that most masks are useless anyways. If they aren't of N95 quality they don't stop the virus.
> 
> But they are useful as a visual reminder for people to stay away from each other and distance from each other does matter.


It's not true that the cheaper masks are useless. They have been shown to reduce transmission ... maybe not the flimsy cotton types, but certainly the disposable surgical masks.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Dr. Tam said that during the first wave of the first virus.
> 
> In case you haven't noticed the virus has mutated several times and is a completely different virus now.....highly infectious and airborne.
> 
> According to you, there is no need to sterilize operating rooms or quarantine patients, because infections aren't really a big deal.
> 
> Patients have entered a hospital for treatment, contracted covid while in the hospital and died from it. But I guess that isn't a big deal either.
> 
> We had entire floors in our hospitals closed down due to the spread of covid, while patients had to wait for treatment.
> 
> People have the right not to vaccinate, but they don't have the right to expose everyone else to the virus.


 ... your response above just elicited simple evidence in posts #6952 and 6954 that to this day (November 14, 2021) certain segments of the population (thank lord, a minority) can't think for nor help themselves. And that the pandemic is everyone else's problem (aka no personal responsibility).


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The first version wasn't nearly as infectious and didn't affect young people or children, so we could isolate the people most at risk.
> 
> The truth of the matter is that most masks are useless anyways. If they aren't of N95 quality they don't stop the virus.
> 
> But they are useful as a visual reminder for people to stay away from each other and distance from each other does matter.


 ... there's an absolute truth with your 2nd statement in especial a hospital setting but not so much with a general setting (anywhere). Given the scarcity of N95 masks or near impossibility of getting them real ones (at least in Canada), we (as in the general population) can make do with the disposable masks to reduce transmissions. Even a bandana can help.

And then your 3rd statement is an additional tool, one that enforces a reduction in the chain of transmissions.


----------



## Beaver101

I didn't know these groups exist in Canada (only the USA) but then one just popped up on the front page of a national paper. Holy crxp.

This uniquely Canadian conspiracy theory group was on the edges of obscurity. Then vaccine mandates came down



> By Alex McKeenVancouver Bureau Sun., Nov. 14, 2021 (15 min. read)
> 
> _It's a rainy Sunday and inside a small church on the east side of Vancouver, talk has turned to mutiny.
> 
> About 20 unmasked people have trickled into the church's wooden pews for a meeting, eating potluck soup, holding long hugs by way of greeting and chatting about their own version of current affairs.
> 
> The cloudy weather has left the space dark inside, with only intermittent bursts of sunshine coming in through colourful stained-glass windows. Artwork of Jesus, dreamcatchers and circles of hands cover every spare patch of wall.
> 
> Topics among those gathered range from the certain - that COVID-19 was planned by the global elite; to the speculative - the fate of microchipped individuals lucky enough to survive their COVID-19 vaccine.
> 
> One woman breaks away from her private conversation, looking down to make a comment to no one in particular.
> 
> "We must sound just crazy," she says. "To someone who doesn't know about this stuff yet."
> 
> The conversations between those in attendance eventually fall silent, as a large, older man sitting at the front of the church begins to talk. He speaks in a slow, commanding drawl, a man in a cowboy hat standing sentry behind him.
> 
> "You might step off the ship of commerce, but did your mind follow you?" the man introduced as maathlaatlaa booms, gesturing to his own head.
> 
> "Are you still caught in the world of corporatocracy up here?
> 
> "This is our de jure government we're building," he says. "We have invited you to walk beside us." Some in the pews nod their heads, or let out a murmur of agreement.
> 
> Among those gathered here, "stepping off the ship of commerce," refers to leaving society as we know it and being freed from the constraints of Canada's institutions and laws.
> 
> Members of this group will also talk about commandeering the "vessel." That vessel is the Canadian government - and they want to take it over.
> 
> Welcome to the latest meeting of the Peoples of the Salmon.
> 
> While there are only 20 people at the church, this group's online footprint is bigger. A recent petition boasts more than 19,000 signatures.
> 
> *It's a manifestation of what experts describe as a uniquely Canadian brand of conspiracy-theory-laden, anti-government belief - one that's picked up steam during the pandemic. If you've wondered where Canadians go when their beliefs diverge so strongly from reality that everything - from vaccines, to Canada's own elections - seem like a conspiracy, it's to places such as this.*
> 
> The general trend worries experts, for both the social harm they say it can do, and the fear that it might, in some rare cases, lead to violence.
> 
> Let it be said upfront: this particular group, eating soup in the pews of a darkened church, does not have any obvious or viable path to overthrowing the government. They say they have no plans at all to incite violence - that they fight with the pen, not the sword.
> 
> At the Sunday meeting, a woman named Dayna Furst, an erstwhile anti-vaccination organizer who has taken over recruiting for the Peoples of the Salmon group since mid-September, is wrapped in a ceremonial blanket.
> 
> It is meant to symbolize the protection of her spirit outside of the corporate world, with a $10 Canadian bill pinned above her heart.
> 
> The symbolism is keenly felt in the room. Furst, and many others, cry.
> 
> "We need everybody to spread our petition to collect signatures," Furst had told an earlier meeting. "So that we can take over the government."
> 
> The origin story of the Peoples of the Salmon could be said to start with one man's grievances with the legal system.
> 
> *These days, he goes by "popois." In the past, he has been known as David Quinn. *The B.C. Supreme Court says he's not allowed to file any more lawsuits by either name.
> 
> *The founder of the Peoples of the Salmon was declared a "vexatious litigant" by the B.C. court in 2018 for undertaking a series of "pseudolegal" battles over the course of nine years - claiming repeatedly and with no success that the court's jurisdiction did not apply to him and certain neighbours because he, as an Indigenous person, had not consented to participate in the court's rules.*
> 
> ... _


_ ... _the article is behind a paywall but above is an excerpt. Besides who wants to read the entire article that goes on and on and on and on and on and on .... the warning is a 15 minutes read! 

If this conspiracy group is called the Peoples of Salmon, then what about the group who're too chicken to be members but voices their support for these believers? What are they called? Peoples of "another Fish name"? LMAO.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Dr. Tam said that during the first wave of the first virus.


It was known to be wrong then.



> In case you haven't noticed the virus has mutated several times and is a completely different virus now.....highly infectious and airborne.


It always was.



> According to you, there is no need to sterilize operating rooms or quarantine patients, because infections aren't really a big deal.


You're clearly a troll, I never said anything like that.



> People have the right not to vaccinate, but they don't have the right to expose everyone else to the virus.


Exactly!! Those with COVID19 should isolate.

Really other than misrepresenting my position we actually have quite a bit of agreement.


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> ^ A "lockdown" "on" "the" "unvaccinateds". Wow.


 ... continuing from sags' post (#6923) with further "details":

Austria brings back COVID-19 lockdown, this time for the unvaccinated



> _...
> “In reality we have told one third of the population: *you will not leave your apartment anymore apart from for certain reasons.* That is a massive reduction in contacts between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated,” Schallenberg said.
> 
> In Germany, the federal government and leaders of Germany’s 16 states are due to meet next week to discuss tightening measures. *Germany has already classified Austria as a high-risk area, meaning people arriving from there have to go into quarantine, a blow to Austria’s winter tourism industry.*
> 
> Targeted measures have recently been introduced in Australia, where 83% of people aged 16 and above have been fully inoculated. Some states have mandated vaccinations for some occupations and barred the unvaccinated from activities such as dining out, leading to demonstrations.
> 
> *Singapore, where 85% of the population has been fully vaccinated, has said those who remained unvaccinated by choice would have to foot their medical bills from next month.*
> 
> Austria’s lockdown, which does not apply to the under-12s or people who have recently recovered from COVID-19, will initially last 10 days, Health Minister Wolfgang Mueckstein said.
> 
> Many officials, including within Schallenberg’s conservative party and the police, have expressed doubts this lockdown can be properly enforced as it applies to only part of the population.
> 
> *Interior Minister Karl Nehammer said there will be thorough police checks and fines of up to 1,450 euros ($1,660) for breaches, and all interactions with the police will include checking people’s vaccination status.
> 
> “As of tomorrow, every citizen, every person who lives in Austria must be aware that they can be checked by the police,” Nehammer told the news conference.*
> 
> Showing an official COVID pass proving that you have been vaccinated, recovered from COVID-19 or recently tested has been required for months in various places including restaurants, theatres, cafes and hairdressers.
> 
> Such passes continue to be required in those places; as of last week the unvaccinated are longer allowed in. As of Monday non-essential shops, where no such passes are required, will be off-limits to the unvaccinated, but the only checks will be spot checks by the police, Nehammer said._


 ... I guess if Austria's version of locking down the unvaccinateds (aka vaccine passport requirement) ain't enough, then Singapore's route is next. Unvaccinateds get to foot their own Covid-related medical bills. Ouch.


----------



## Beaver101

Catholic elementary school in Etobicoke closed after 18 COVID-19 cases detected

Close and open, open and close ... this is better than spring break!


----------



## Beaver101

Three snow leopards with COVID-19 die at Nebraska zoo

I thought Covid is just confined to humans ATM. Apparently not.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I hope I remember to stay at least 6 feet away from a leapard, from now on. lol


----------



## Beaver101

^ Try that with your pets, lol.


----------



## sags

Yes, dogs, deer, and other animals are being infected with covid.

Mink farming is a concern in several Provinces.

What happens to the food supply if the virus spreads to cattle, pigs or chickens ?

They do say that viruses can be spread by eating infected animals.

Or even worse, if the virus keeps spreading and mutating and jumping back to humans.....how do we ever stop this thing ?

I posted it before and I will stick with it as the evidence continues to mount....we are losing the war with the virus.









Province Working to Protect Mink Industry from Exposure to COVID-19


The provincial government says it has been working diligently to protect mink in the province's fur industry f...




vocm.com


----------



## andrewf

Beaver101 said:


> Three snow leopards with COVID-19 die at Nebraska zoo
> 
> I thought Covid is just confined to humans ATM. Apparently not.


We have known for ages it can infect some animals. Some cats had caught it, it was spreading rapidly in captive mink farms in Europe (leading to a cull) and some zoo animals. I thought horses and deer were also transmitting it.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> Yes, dogs, deer, and other animals are being infected with covid.
> 
> Mink farming is a concern in several Provinces.
> 
> What happens to the food supply if the virus spreads to cattle, pigs or chickens ?
> 
> They do say that viruses can be spread by eating infected animals.
> 
> Or even worse, if the virus keeps spreading and mutating and jumping back to humans.....how do we ever stop this thing ?
> 
> I posted it before and I will stick with it as the evidence continues to mount....we are losing the war with the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Province Working to Protect Mink Industry from Exposure to COVID-19
> 
> 
> The provincial government says it has been working diligently to protect mink in the province's fur industry f...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> vocm.com


I really doubt you will catch COVID from meat. If it is cooked, it should destroy any virus particles, and it has been shown that fomite/surface transmission is not that big of a factor.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Yes, dogs, deer, and other animals are being infected with covid.
> 
> Mink farming is a concern in several Provinces.
> 
> What happens to the food supply if the virus spreads to cattle, pigs or chickens ?
> 
> They do say that viruses can be spread by eating infected animals.
> 
> *Or even worse, if the virus keeps spreading and mutating and jumping back to humans.....how do we ever stop this thing ?*
> 
> I posted it before and I will stick with it as the evidence continues to mount....we are losing the war with the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Province Working to Protect Mink Industry from Exposure to COVID-19
> 
> 
> The provincial government says it has been working diligently to protect mink in the province's fur industry f...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> vocm.com


 ... lots of food for thoughts.


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> We have known for ages it can infect some animals. *Some cats had caught it, it was spreading rapidly in captive mink farms in Europe (leading to a cull) and some zoo animals*. I thought horses and deer were also transmitting it.


 ... you're right. It was on the headlines last(?) year, only sporadic. Seems like it's picking up. I mean how can zoo animals get Covid when the spectators are more than 6' away? Unless their handlers gave it to them. 

I'm not too worry about my cat since she's mostly an indoor one. But not sure about the neighbours' dogs who are always out - yapping for a walk, if not barking at squirrels.


----------



## sags

Even if true that people can't get infected by eating the meat of an infected animal, I can't imagine any company like McDonalds would want it made public they were serving hamburgers that came from covid infected cattle, regardless if is safe to eat.

That would be a PR nightmare for any company.

One third of deer tested in Iowa tested positive for covid, so it is spreading in animals in North America and they are creating new mutations.

I would think that spread of the disease among animals has the potential to disrupt the food supply chain.









One-third of Iowa deer test positive for SARS-CoV-2, scientists see a new stream of mutations


Free-living animals can act as a reservoir for the virus, allowing it to multiply and mutate into variants with increased transmissibility and virulence,…




nationalpost.com


----------



## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Yes, dogs, deer, and other animals are being infected with covid.


3 Snow Leopards Have Died of COVID.

_"So far there have been no confirmed reports of humans contracting the virus from pets. But according to the Cornell Feline Health Centre, cats, including house cats, may be susceptible to contracting the virus from people and from other cats. (The first reported cases of the virus in pets in the U.S. occurred in domestic cats.) Cats also appear more at risk than dogs."_

ltr


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> What happens to the food supply if the virus spreads to cattle, pigs or chickens ?


Mass Culls. 

You just kill everything you can for miles around.








When foot-and-mouth disease stopped the UK in its tracks


Fifteen years ago foot-and-mouth disease led to the culling of millions of animals. Could it happen again?



www.bbc.com


----------



## sags

Yikes....they went through all that and then later it leaked out from a lab doing experiments on it ? That sounds about right for the human race.

It is unbelievable how much effort we have put into trying to destroy ourselves, just during my lifetime.


----------



## Beaver101

The battle against airborne COVID has shifted. Why your mask is the last layer of defence

This is behind a paywall. But here're the first few paragrapsh of that read (6 minutes!):

_



TORONTO STAR - By Kenyon WallaceInvestigative Reporter and May Warren Staff Reporter, Tues.Nov.16,2021

Whether it’s the moviegoer who ditches their mask at the start of the show to eat popcorn and never puts it on again, or the commuter on the subway who sports theirs just below the nose, mask use in Ontario seems to be slipping, literally.

But with COVID-19 cases ticking up again with the cold weather, a reopened economy, and vaccination rates plateauing, Canada’s chief public health officer is urging people to double down on masking as a tool *to help stop airborne transmission.*

In a series of tweets over the weekend, Dr. Theresa Tam stressed that the virus can linger in the air we breathe, much like second-hand smoke, and a well-fitting mask is vital to protect yourself when spending time in indoor public spaces, particularly in the absence of good ventilation.

*There has been a paradigm shift in the thinking behind mask use,* to the current emphasis on protecting oneself as opposed to the initial consideration of keeping others safe from what we might be exhaling, said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto.

*“The game has changed,” he said. “We’re not masking to protect others from our own droplets now, we’re masking to protect ourselves from people who are being lackadaisical and reckless.”* ...

Click to expand...

 ..._ note Covid has been upgraded to being "airborne"_._


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario to allow symptomatic COVID-19 testing inside pharmacies

Aren't symptomatic (aka sick with whatever) people supposed to be home in the first place? And if they're not well enough, to call into the doctors' office if not visit the hospital's Covid center. 

Ugggh about shopping at those pharmacies participating in this..


----------



## Beaver101

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/covid-19-travel-rules-airline-vaccine-westjet-aircanada-173203766.html

This is a farcial protocol of the airlines ... I hope they really do check for a negative Covid test with 72 hours of boarding their planes during this "transition" period where they're just spot-checking passengers' vaccination status. Another ugghhh to "flying".


----------



## sags

We recently were informed someone in our family loop may have been in contact with someone with covid.

That set off phone calls to many family members and none of us knew what we were supposed to do except wait for the results of her test.

It came back negative and everyone relaxed, but what are we supposed to do if it was positive ? Everyone calls in to work and takes 14 days off ?

I think people wait to see if they get really sick and then they go to the hospital. In the meantime they keep on working and whatever they do.


----------



## damian13ster

Just imagine if you were all tested regularly - no such issues.
I walk in to my work, get a test, and instantly know whether am about to be contagious to others or not.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> We recently were informed someone in our family loop may have been in contact with someone with covid.
> 
> That set off phone calls to many family members and none of us knew what we were supposed to do except wait for the results of her test.
> 
> It came back negative and everyone relaxed, but what are we supposed to do if it was positive ? Everyone calls in to work and takes 14 days off ?


 ... the person with the positive test is supposed to isolate and supposedly inform everyone they've been in contact with. That's part of the self-contact tracing. But then this isn't happening in "real life".



> I think people wait to see if they get really sick and then they go to the hospital. In the meantime they keep on working and whatever they do.


 .. yep but if someone has symptoms they suspect is Covid, then you as a customer next in line to this infected person at the pharmacy, no thanks. At least the pharmacist is in full PPE gear but as a customer, we only got our flimsy mask.

And there's the question are/will family doctors be accepting symptomatic patients? Ie. a patient calls in his/her family doctor and say "hey doc, I got a real bad cough from a sore throat that I think I picked up at work or enroute last Friday and it's still here on Monday. Do you think it's the flu or Covid? I was feverish too but it has subside as I took a bottle of Tylenols"

Where do you think your doctor will tell you go to? I bet NOT 'come on in and let me have a look at you'.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Just imagine if you were all tested regularly - no such issues.
> I walk in to my work, get a test, and instantly know whether am about to be contagious to others or not.


 ... no such imagination exists in the real world here.

You can test in the morning and be negative enough to go to work. And go to Taco Bell for dinner and be infected. Besides, no employer as generous or as rich as yours to test each and every one of their employee frivolously or in your case with a testing mandate (OMG!).


----------



## damian13ster

You are wrong again.

You dont start spreading until about 2-3 days after infection.

Government of Canada could literally test every single citizen every single day for 10 years with the spending they did in one budget for COVID response.

I believe twice a week would be more than sufficient because of incubation period so you are looking at 35 years of testing and still spending less than what they did on ineffective measures


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> You are wrong again.
> 
> You dont start spreading until about 2-3 days after infection.
> 
> *Government of Canada could literally test every single citizen every single day for 10 years with the spending they did in one budget for COVID response.*
> 
> I believe twice a week would be more than sufficient because of incubation period so you are looking at 35 years of testing and still spending less than what they did on ineffective measures


 ... and you own the Government of Canada?


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> Ontario to allow symptomatic COVID-19 testing inside pharmacies
> 
> Aren't symptomatic (aka sick with whatever) people supposed to be home in the first place? And if they're not well enough, to call into the doctors' office if not visit the hospital's Covid center.
> 
> Ugggh about shopping at those pharmacies participating in this..


 ... forgot to add the question "who's paying for these tests"? OHIP?


----------



## damian13ster

Austria introducing lockdowns for everyone


----------



## damian13ster

Try to guess when vaccinations took place


----------



## MK7GTI

damian13ster said:


> Austria introducing lockdowns for everyone


Not only full lockdown for those who aren’t fully vaccinated but REQUIRING fully vaccination by February.1, 2022. Just insane.


----------



## damian13ster

MK7GTI said:


> Not only full lockdown for those who aren’t fully vaccinated but REQUIRING fully vaccination by February.1, 2022. Just insane.


Another scare tactic. There is no policy nor penalties in place. They tried scaring people by supposed lockdown only for unvaccinated. People weren't scared and effects weren't big. So now they are trying to scare them this way.


----------



## sags

I think they are trying to keep their healthcare system functioning and people from dying.


----------



## Money172375

Agh! How does this end? Disappears like SARS? Sticks around like HIV and hope for better treatments?

the return of full lockdowns is going to be disastrous for the economy and morale. 

I’ll admit, my life has pretty much returned to normal, although we’re still delaying an all inclusive vacation. My kids entire night school career has been affected. One of them hasn’t had a single “normal” year of HS. I feel for them. Lack of extra curricular, parties, movie nights…..all things I took for granted. Sigh….


----------



## damian13ster

How often do institutions/people who gave themselves pretty much unlimited power actually give it back voluntarily?


----------



## sags

Every 4 years or less, when there is an election, although they did have to drag Donald Trump away kicking and screaming.


----------



## damian13ster

In Austria prime ministers changed, but institution - Government of Austria - retained the powers


----------



## james4beach

Denmark is a warning sign... Denmark and Canada have the same vaccination rate (both are very high). In their case, 96% of everyone over age 50 is fully vaccinated.

In September, Denmark lifted virtually all domestic restrictions. People no longer had to show proof of vaccination for restaurants and public behaviour relaxed and went back to "normal". Crowds, restaurants, lots of socializing, and people stopped wearing masks.

And here's what happened. Now Denmark is about to bring back restrictions, and their infection rate is out of control. Keep in mind that in September, they declared "success" and thought the pandemic was basically done.

*So take note... the same thing can happen in Canada. This is what happens when people drop all caution, stop wearing masks (they discontinued mandatory masks).*


----------



## sags

We keep repeating the same mistakes.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Denmark is a warning sign... Denmark and Canada have the same vaccination rate (both are very high). In their case, 96% of everyone over age 50 is fully vaccinated.
> 
> In September, Denmark lifted virtually all domestic restrictions. People no longer had to show proof of vaccination for restaurants and public behaviour relaxed and went back to "normal". Crowds, restaurants, lots of socializing, and people stopped wearing masks.
> 
> And here's what happened. Now Denmark is about to bring back restrictions, and their infection rate is out of control. Keep in mind that in September, they declared "success" and thought the pandemic was basically done.
> 
> *So take note... the same thing can happen in Canada. This is what happens when people drop all caution, stop wearing masks (they discontinued mandatory masks).*
> View attachment 22399


Well du-uh, we know this.
The problem is our "leaders" told us vaccination would stop it, but of course they lied.

They're still sticking to that story, even doubling down, even though they know it's a lie.

COVID19 will be here forever, it will never go away. But with vaccination the death rate will fall and we will be able to go about our lives as normal.


----------



## Beaver101

Canadians (anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, anti-everything ... ) can opt for this instead of believing in the "lie" given by our government:

'Orgy of violence': Dutch police open fire on rioters


----------



## damian13ster

Not sure if we are yet at the point where violence is necessary or justified.
There is a line though that if governments cross, there must be a reaction.

Unfortunately, as humans we have tendency to conform and are literally willing to kill innocents, if told by someone to do so. Stanley Milgram's experiments have proven that, and Burger replicated the study quite recently (although less graphically not to 'upset' the people doing executions)


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Not sure if we are yet at the point where violence is necessary or justified.
> There is a line though that if governments cross, there must be a reaction.
> 
> Unfortunately, as humans we have tendency to conform and are literally willing to kill innocents, if told by someone to do so. Stanley Milgram's experiments have proven that, and Burger replicated the study quite recently (although less graphically not to 'upset' the people doing executions)


 ... you have to add the 2 bits 2nd part.

Don't vaccinate and you can have this reaction below instead. No violence and no service. Sound like a win-win to you? And also don't b1tch that the people are/will be "suffering mentally" 'cause of the service reductions.

Number of municipal employees on unpaid leave exceeds 500 as city cancels about 100 rec programs due to staffing shortages

*



101 recreational programs cancelled

Click to expand...

*


> _The city confirmed Friday that 101 recreational programs will be cancelled for the last four weeks of the fall season.
> 
> It announced last week that a number of its programs would be paused due to staff shortages caused by the mandate.
> 
> The cancelled programs will affect 685 participants, the city said.
> 
> It noted that no Learn to Skate or Learn to Swim programs will be slashed as well as after-school recreation care programs will not be affected.
> 
> "The City will be directly contacting anyone affected by a program cancellation and registrants will receive pro-rated refunds for the remaining classes in the session."_


Forgot to add this part from the article:


> ... _Staff members who will continue to defy the policy and remain unvaccinated by Dec. 13 will be terminated with cause, the city said. ... _


----------



## damian13ster

Yeah, that is certainly part of the problem.
People didn't choose to not have the service - the government did.
If people 'suffer mentally' due to service reductions - then that is on government.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Yeah, that is certainly part of the problem.
> People didn't choose to not have the service - the government did.
> If people 'suffer mentally' due to service reductions - then that is on government.


 ... and who's the "government" or how did it come about?

Elected by the people (like you and I and everyone else), no? Ie. it's on "us=the people". 

Analogy (question): do you like to shoot yourself in the foot? That's basically what anti-this&that are doing ... this pandemic is going to drag.


----------



## damian13ster

And this is precisely what Milgram experiment has shown.
Over 70% of people are willing to kill and innocent person if told by some authority.
You really think if they are willing to kill an innocents then they care about something trivial like mental health of their peers? - this is where we are as society
Whatever you consider government to be, they (whether elected people or those who voted for them) are responsible for the lack of services. Not the employees, nor the people who are in need of such services.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Well du-uh, we know this.
> The problem is our "leaders" told us vaccination would stop it, but of course they lied.
> 
> They're still sticking to that story, even doubling down, even though they know it's a lie.
> 
> COVID19 will be here forever, it will never go away. But with vaccination the death rate will fall and we will be able to go about our lives as normal.


Matt, you think leaders lie a lot. Is it possible, they thought it would work, and said so?

even now, aren’t they saying it helps to reduce spread and prevent serious illness?

i think it’s well established that the vaccines aren’t a cure or 100% effective at stopping transmission. Are there leaders saying otherwise?


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> And this is precisely what Milgram experiment has shown.
> Over 70% of people are willing to kill and innocent person if told by some authority.


 ... don't know what that "experiment" is nor am I going to find out when I have use of my own common sense.



> You really think if they are willing to kill an innocents then they care about something trivial like mental health of their peers? - this is where we are as society


 ... did your head get loosened from reading all those "experiments" and what-have-yous (aka theories) that you keep throwing out.

First, who/what is killing people, let alone the "innocents". You really believe that the vaccine was created to kill people? I'm still breathing and typing. Secondly, was it not your concern that people (especially kids) would suffer mentally if we go into another lockdown or restrictions imposed if we can't get a handle on the virus/spread. 

What's exactly your preference? No vaccine, no masking, no lockdown, no restrictions, do nothing? Except to "test" all day, every day, everyone as if the spread is going to miraculously stop if someone tests positive and would quietly and co-operatively (gasp!) "isolate".



> Whatever you consider government to be, they (whether elected people or those who voted for them) are responsible for the lack of services. Not the employees, nor the people who are in need of such services.


 ... your view of the "government" here or the people that operates it is from Mars. Now if you said they're functioning like "management" of a company, I would have believed you. But your statement above makes absolute NO sense (polite version) or not so polite version - your way of divisiveness.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> *... don't know what that "experiment" is nor am I going to find out when I have use of my own common sense.*
> 
> ... did your head get loosened from reading those "experiments" and what-have-yous (aka theories) that you keep throwing out. First, who/what is killing people, let alone the "innocents". You really believe that the vaccine was created to kill people? Secondly, wasn't it was your concern that people (especially kids) would suffer mentally if we go into another lockdown or with restrictions if we can't get a handle on the virus/spread. What's exactly your preference? No vaccine, no masking, no lockdown, no restrictions, do nothing. Except to "test" all day, every day, everyone as if the spread is going to miraculously stop if someone tests positive and quietly and co-operatively (gasp!) "isolate".
> 
> ... your view of the "government" here or the people that operates it is from Mars. Now if you said they're functioning like "management" of a company, I would have believed you. But your statement above makes absolute NO sense (polite version) or not so polite version - your way of divisiveness.


Really? One of the best known sociological experiments of all time examining authority, power structure, and explaining how atrocities such as holocaust, genocide, residential schools are allowed to happen and you have never heard of it nor are willing to educate yourself? 

Your second paragraph has nothing to do with my post - you would know that if you knew what Milgram experiment was. My post was clearly referring to it, not saying that 'vaccine was created to kill people'/

Vaccine doesn't stop lockdowns - nations with >90% of vaccination rate are reintroducing restriction. Nation with 100% vaccination rate is also introducing restrictions.

Fine, 'management' of the public services is to blame.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Really? One of the best known sociological experiments of all time examining authority, power structure, and explaining how atrocities such as holocaust, genocide, residential schools are allowed to happen and you have never heard of it nor are willing to educate yourself?


 ... you labelled it as an "experiment" and the real-world atrocities you have listed still happened. And so you just discovered hindsight?



> Your second paragraph has nothing to do with my post - you would know that if you knew what Milgram experiment was. My post was clearly referring to it, not saying that 'vaccine was created to kill people'/


 ... then explain to me what you were you referring to with your post (repasted here) if it's not the "vaccine". As an alternative, I would have thought you meant the pro-vaxxers (and the government) want the "innocent" anti-vaxxers killed.



> _And this is precisely what Milgram experiment has shown.
> *Over 70% of people are willing to kill and innocent person if told by some authority.
> You really think if they are willing to kill an innocents then they care about something trivial like mental health of their peers?* - this is where we are as society _





> Vaccine doesn't stop lockdowns - nations with >90% of vaccination rate are reintroducing restriction. Nation with 100% vaccination rate is also introducing restrictions.


 ... never said the vaccine "stop" lockdowns, "stop" the spread, "stop" the pandemic. It seems like you're another soul stucked with this notion of the vaccine being a "silver bullet" to ending the pandemic.



> Fine, 'management' of the public services is to blame.


 .. keep in mind that we (taxpayers) put those management there in the first place.


----------



## damian13ster

Read the experiment and you would stop with useless, completely off-point questions. If you aren't willing to educate yourself then stop interpreting a paragraph that you have zero knowledge about what it was commenting.

Doesn't matter who put the management in place. If the management does a shitty job that results in 'company' not being able to provide services, then the 'management' is liable to critique regardless of how they ended up there in the first place.


----------



## sags

Farmers Insurance never heard of that experiment thing and they know a thing or two because they've seen a thing or two.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Farmers Insurance never heard of that experiment thing and they know a thing or two because they've seen a thing or two.


Or did they?  
No genocide coverage - very low premiums yet 70% of society would actively participate if asked = bad for business.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Read the experiment and you would stop with useless, completely off-point questions. If you aren't willing to educate yourself then stop interpreting a paragraph that you have zero knowledge about what it was commenting.


 ... why don't you stick to the topic (aka "one" topic) instead of spewing all over the place, trying to deflect the question with useless information so that I don't have to throw completely off-point useless questions to you, huh? And no, I'm not going to read your "experimental" theory to figure out what's your answer to the simple question "what were you exactly referring to, if not the vaccine"? 



> Doesn't matter who put the management in place. If the management does a shitty job that results in 'company' not being able to provide services, then the 'management' is liable to critique regardless of how they ended up there in the first place.


... of course, management or those in charge are "liable to be critique" for the lack of providing services or mishandling them. That's call accountability. But as their employer (as in we, the public, the taxpayers) are also liable for the employees' "safety" too. So just go re-read the "critique" from your earlier post:



> _Whatever you consider government to be, they (whether elected people or those who voted for them) are responsible for the lack of services. *N*_*ot the employees, nor the people who are in need of such services. *


I hope you're fully aware that public management is not self-employed. So don't start shooting yourself in the foot.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... why don't you stick to the topic (aka "one" topic) instead of spewing all over the place, trying to deflect the question with useless information so that I don't have to throw completely off-point useless questions to you, huh? And no, I'm not going to read your "experimental" theory to figure out what's your answer to the simple question "what were you exactly referring to, if not the vaccine"?
> 
> ... of course, management or those in charge are "liable to be critique" for the lack of providing services or mishandling them. That's call accountability. But as their employer (as in we, the public, the taxpayers) are also liable for the employees' "safety" too. So just go re-read the "critique" from your earlier post:
> 
> 
> 
> I hope you're fully aware that public management is not self-employed. So don't start shooting yourself in the foot.


It is on topic. Just because you don't know what is being referred to doesn't mean it is off-topic.
There is relatively low level of common knowledge in the society, but I didn't realize it is so bad that people don't know what Milgram experiment is.

And on your second point:
a) you are not safer to your surroundings if you are vaccinated
b) if employee in a private company doesn't like their terms of employment and leaves, do you blame them for inability of the company to provide goods or services? - I would hope not. 
Employees are not slaves. Inability of the company/public to provide service is solely fault of the 'management', not employees


----------



## sags

Miligram......miligram........wasn't Miligram the black fella in the 2nd season of the Fargo series ?

I can see the connection. He was a pretty intimidating guy using psychology and whatnot.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Matt, you think leaders lie a lot. Is it possible, they thought it would work, and said so?


Yes it is possible they thought that.
However since there was no history or evidence to suggest that it would, to state that it would was at best overly optimisitc.

When the later data, from earlier this year, showed that it would NOT work to stop the pandemic, to continue to spread misinformation is no longer "overly optimistic", it's lying. They are in a position to know, they have access to the data. If they're still saying things that they know or ought to know are false, they're lying.



> even now, aren’t they saying it helps to reduce spread and prevent serious illness?


Yes, and it does prevent serious illness, and for a time reduces spread.
But it's well known for a long time that it won't end the pandemic.



> i think it’s well established that the vaccines aren’t a cure or 100% effective at stopping transmission. Are there leaders saying otherwise?











PM says Canada will have enough COVID-19 vaccines for a 'one-dose summer'


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed Tuesday that there will be enough COVID-19 vaccines coming into the country to offer every eligible and willing Canadian their first shot by this summer, and enough doses for everyone to be fully vaccinated 'by September.'



www.ctvnews.ca




“A one-dose summer sets us up for a two-dose fall, when we’ll be able to talk about going back to school, back to work, and back to more normality,” said the prime minister.


----------



## Money172375

“A one-dose summer sets us up for a two-dose fall, when we’ll be able to talk about going back to school, back to work, and back to more normality,” said the prime minister.

I don’t see a problem with that statement. We went back to school …..many went back to work in industries that were closed…..and we returned to More normality.

I don’t see that as lying.


----------



## damian13ster

Did we though?
We had one dose summer
Segregation Fall
We are set up for '3rd dose, 4th lockdown' winter
'4th time is the charm spring'
'fifth will do the trick' summer, etc.

Back to normal 
Multiple times it has been said that vaccines will end the pandemic. Trudeau said that as recently as october - yeah, that is a lie


----------



## damian13ster

I was always curious what countries like Austria are trying to achieve.
'We got rise in cases guys, how do we stop it'
'Uh, I got an idea! - let's piss of millions of people'

And next day 100,000 Austrians are on the street marching and yelling. 
That will sure stop the spread.....


----------



## KaeJS

Too many sheep.
Not enough wolves.


----------



## sags

Covid will take care of the anti-restriction mob. Give it about.....2 weeks.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> “A one-dose summer sets us up for a two-dose fall, when we’ll be able to talk about going back to school, back to work, and back to more normality,” said the prime minister.
> 
> I don’t see a problem with that statement. We went back to school …..many went back to work in industries that were closed…..and we returned to More normality.
> 
> I don’t see that as lying.


The school policies in the fall were the same as in the spring, at least in Ontario.

Also as we go back to "more normality" we're entering yet another wave, because the current vaccine isn't enough to stop the pandemic, and they knew that from the start.


----------



## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> The school policies in the fall were the same as in the spring, at least in Ontario.
> 
> Also as we go back to "more normality" we're entering yet another wave, because the current vaccine isn't enough to stop the pandemic, and they knew that from the start.


I’ll respectfully disagree. There’s a lot more extra curricular going on in Ontario schools this year vs. Spring.

and if they knew from the start, I don’t think they ever declared that the vaccine would end the pandemic. I just think your insistence that govt is constantly lying is a bit of a stretch.


----------



## damian13ster

Money172375 said:


> I’ll respectfully disagree. There’s a lot more extra curricular going on in Ontario schools this year vs. Spring.
> 
> and if they knew from the start, I don’t think they ever declared that the vaccine would end the pandemic. I just think your insistence that govt is constantly lying is a bit of a stretch.


Then why do they still insist it will end the pandemic? It has been known for months that vaccines barely decrease transmission of the virus, yet as recently as last month Trudeau still claimed they will end the pandemic.

Perhaps they didn't lie for the first couple of months due to lack of knowledge (although not admitting lack of knowledge is also not being honest), but they sure as hell are lying now.

He doesn't insist government is constantly lying either. Government is constantly lying about vaccines.


----------



## Money172375

damian13ster said:


> Then why do they still insist it will end the pandemic? It has been known for months that vaccines barely decrease transmission of the virus, yet as recently as last month Trudeau still claimed they will end the pandemic.
> 
> Perhaps they didn't lie for the first couple of months due to lack of knowledge (although not admitting lack of knowledge is also not being honest), but they sure as hell are lying now.
> 
> He doesn't insist government is constantly lying either. Government is constantly lying about vaccines.


Can I see a quote? Not that I don’t believe you…..but saying “the vaccine will end the pandemic” is very different from saying “the vaccine will help end the pandemic”.

what does the government gain by saying “it will end the pandemic” if in fact they are saying it?


----------



## sags

I think it was Jason Kenney who said the pandemic was over.


----------



## damian13ster

Money172375 said:


> Can I see a quote? Not that I don’t believe you…..but saying “the vaccine will end the pandemic” is very different from saying “the vaccine will help end the pandemic”.
> 
> what does the government gain by saying “it will end the pandemic” if in fact they are saying it?






2:20-3:35


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1442871196027011072


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-post-election-press-conference-1.6192325



“Shame on you, Erin O’Toole,” Trudeau said after he was heckled by protesters. “You need to condemn those people, you need to correct them, you need to use your voice and actually add it to those of us who understand that vaccinations are the way through this pandemic.” 









Trudeau energized by anti-vaccine protests in Canada election few wanted


The prime minister trails the Conservatives in polls but has found new impetus in pursuit of a third term to secure his legacy




www.theguardian.com






__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400114469662081032


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> I’ll respectfully disagree. There’s a lot more extra curricular going on in Ontario schools this year vs. Spring.
> 
> and if they knew from the start, I don’t think they ever declared that the vaccine would end the pandemic. I just think your insistence that govt is constantly lying is a bit of a stretch.


Yes, in November, but not in Sept/Oct.

I think they were very clear that vaccination to the herd immunity level of 70-80% would end the pandemic. But it's simply not true.
Also they said they'd have vaccines for every Canadian who wanted them by September, it's the second half of November and they just approved vaccines for kids.

They've been feeding lies and half truths.
Sure they're not as ridiculous as Dr Tam saying we don't need masks, but the constant falsehoods and misleading statements are frustrating.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Can I see a quote? Not that I don’t believe you…..but saying “the vaccine will end the pandemic” is very different from saying “the vaccine will help end the pandemic”.
> 
> what does the government gain by saying “it will end the pandemic” if in fact they are saying it?


By claiming vaccination will end this, it gives them (in their eyes) the "moral authority" to force a potentially lethal medical procedure on people.
Why? Because they're power tripping narcissists' who don't respect human rights.

Beyond that I don't know, some have suggested that they don't trust us to make "the right decision", so they'll lie and try to trick/force us into it. They simply don't respect that we have our own opinions and that human rights are a thing to consider.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> I think it was Jason Kenney who said the pandemic was over.


Did it even begin?


----------



## sags

Not on the planet Jason Kenney lives on.


----------



## KaeJS

Not on the planet I live on, either.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Well du-uh, we know this.
> The problem is our "leaders" told us vaccination would stop it, but of course they lied.
> 
> They're still sticking to that story, even doubling down, even though they know it's a lie.


I don't think it was a lie, when they first thought this. Earlier it did look like vaccination could end this.

The problem is that we now have evidence to the contrary. Vaccination is not enough, on its own. It does not prevent COVID from circulating, even at extremely high vaccination levels, like Denmark's

I am disappointed that the government is doubling down but I think it's because public policy (government) is not as sharp as scientists on the cutting edge. There is a time delay.

This is why scientists need to be in charge of driving public health policy during an emergency like this.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> This is why scientists need to be in charge of driving public health policy during an emergency like this.


I disagree for a few points.

Firstly which scientists? Who picks them?
Is it going to be an incompetent person like Dr Tam, who seemed like the perfect person to lead Canadas response?

Secondly they are experts only in their area.

The role of elected officials isn't to be experts, they're not.
Their role is to balance the various factors as our representatives and move forward with the policies.

Scientists and researchers roles are to write up policy papers and advise politiicans to make the decisions.

Exactly what "scientist" will be an expert in all the areas impacted by COVID19?
There is the pandemic issues, childrens educational issues, supply chain issues, economic impacts and the list goes on.

There is literally no "scientist" who is an expert in all those areas, if you convened a round table, who decides?
Even if there was such an expert, they might be wrong. How do we hold them accountable?
In the case of an appointee over one tiny subset of this crisis, the PM should have fired Dr Tam.

If the government leaders decide to abdicate their responsibility to the experts, that's fine anyway, they just have to answer to the public.

Finally I think public health experts have been driving policy, which is why we have such a mishmash of different ideas and inconsistent messaging. Different health units have different policies and different guidance etc. You might not be aware of this, but in Ontario most of the initial legal authority came from the Chief Medical officers, not politicians. (That being said the CMO's are simply unelected politicians IMO)


----------



## andrewf

james4beach said:


> I don't think it was a lie, when they first thought this. Earlier it did look like vaccination could end this.
> 
> The problem is that we now have evidence to the contrary. Vaccination is not enough, on its own. It does not prevent COVID from circulating, even at extremely high vaccination levels, like Denmark's
> 
> I am disappointed that the government is doubling down but I think it's because public policy (government) is not as sharp as scientists on the cutting edge. There is a time delay.
> 
> This is why scientists need to be in charge of driving public health policy during an emergency like this.


I think delta changed the game on whether vaccines could end the pandemic. It is so infectious that even with 90% reduction in spread, the reproductive number without restrictions is high enough to ensure everyone will be exposed and infected eventually. Now is just a game of managing health care system capacity and developing better treatments.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I disagree for a few points.
> 
> Firstly which scientists? Who picks them?
> Is it going to be an incompetent person like Dr Tam, who seemed like the perfect person to lead Canadas response?
> 
> Secondly they are experts only in their area.
> 
> The role of elected officials isn't to be experts, they're not.
> Their role is to balance the various factors as our representatives and move forward with the policies.
> 
> Scientists and researchers roles are to write up policy papers and advise politiicans to make the decisions.
> 
> Exactly what "scientist" will be an expert in all the areas impacted by COVID19?
> There is the pandemic issues, childrens educational issues, supply chain issues, economic impacts and the list goes on.
> 
> There is literally no "scientist" who is an expert in all those areas, if you convened a round table, who decides?
> Even if there was such an expert, they might be wrong. How do we hold them accountable?
> In the case of an appointee over one tiny subset of this crisis, the PM should have fired Dr Tam.
> 
> If the government leaders decide to abdicate their responsibility to the experts, that's fine anyway, they just have to answer to the public.
> 
> Finally I think public health experts have been driving policy, which is why we have such a mishmash of different ideas and inconsistent messaging. Different health units have different policies and different guidance etc. You might not be aware of this, but in Ontario most of the initial legal authority came from the Chief Medical officers, not politicians. (That being said the CMO's are simply unelected politicians IMO)


 ... great summary of your favourite subject: politics. And great confirmation that politics influences everything in life, including science and medicine. And so what's the solution from all of this? None, as in your summary.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Too many sheep.
> Not enough wolves.


 ... when the planet is occupied by wolves only, guess what happens? Annihilation as if you think the wolves would sit quietly and behave themselves. No better than savages. 

I'm guessing the MaryJanes must be super cheap to obtain these days.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Too many sheep.
> Not enough wolves.


 ... when the planet is occupied by only wolves, guess what happens? Annihilation if you think the wolves would sit quietly and behave themselves. No better than savages. 

I'm guessing the MaryJanes must be super cheap to obtain these days.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... great summary of your favourite subject: politics. And great confirmation that politics influences everything in life, including science and medicine. And so what's the solution from all of this? None, as in your summary.


Well my "solution" is as little government as possible, and strong respect for individual human rights.
Because you know... Liberalism.


----------



## sags

I think you mean Libertariansim that denies there is systemic racism.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> I think you mean Libertariansim that denies there is systemic racism.








Liberalism - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org




*Liberalism* is a political and moral philosophy based on liberty, consent of the governed and equality before the law.[1][2][3] Liberals espouse a wide array of views depending on their understanding of these principles, but they generally support individual rights (including civil rights and human rights), democracy, secularism, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of religion and a market economy.

I'm not denying that there is systemic racism, you're doing that.
I've actually pointed out that Trudeau is implementing and supporting systemic racism, you deny it.

Again to be clear what _I_ mean by systemic racism.





Institutional racism - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org




*Institutional racism*, also known as *systemic racism*, is a term that refers to a form of racism that is embedded in the laws and regulations of a society or an organization. It manifests as discrimination in areas such as criminal justice, employment, housing, health care, education, and political representation.[1]


I also support many aspects of Libertarianism, particularly the strong emphasis on human rights, don't you?





Libertarianism - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Synergy

COVID is like Trudeau, we can't get rid of it ;o)


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> I think delta changed the game on whether vaccines could end the pandemic. It is so infectious that even with 90% reduction in spread, the reproductive number without restrictions is high enough to ensure everyone will be exposed and infected eventually. Now is just a game of managing health care system capacity and developing better treatments.


Yes, things changed along the way.

More treatments are coming (for example the new Pfizer anti-virals) but it will take months before they're on the shelves in hospitals. So governments need to buy more time.


----------



## sags

Do regular folks have access to monoclonal antibody treatment ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Do regular folks have access to monoclonal antibody treatment ?


What do you mean?
In Canada if the government deems you worthly they'll let you have it, otherwise they won't.

Unless you go to the US where anyone can get this lifesaving treatment.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario extends COVID-19 emergency orders under Reopening Ontario Act until March 2022

Looks like a change of plan on Ford's re-opening schedule for Ontario. 

Edit: No change in plan, just an extension of deadlines as confusing as they are, if not more confusing. Shouldn't be bothering anyone who doesn't follow brother Doug anyways.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Well my "solution" is as little government as possible, and strong respect for individual human rights.
> Because you know... Liberalism.


 ... unless you're actually practicing politics (ie. you're a public facing politician), your "solution" here ain't worth squat. Not to say it's not worthy of a wish though.


----------



## sags

The newly discovered variant should be the end of the line for anti-vaxxers and those who minimize the disease.

I think people have reached the point where they don't want to hear the nonsense anymore.

Here we have the Conservative Party playing games about MP vaccinations and supporting anti-vaxxers.

It is a really bad policy for them. Canadians are so done with that.

If this new variant is for real......big decisions are going to have to be made by the government.


----------



## damian13ster

Found themselves a way to bring down inflation

I am surprised though that South Africa still tests for variants.
They are doing the right thing, and every time they find something, they are penalized.
Eventually they will say 'screw it' and won't do genome sequencing to avoid the punishments western countries place on them


----------



## sags

WHO names the new mutation Omicron and say it is more infectious and can evade vaccines.

Countries are already reacting with travel bans and quarantines.


----------



## damian13ster

Sadly not yet - they didn't admit they evade the vaccines. Burn those passports to the ground would be the best possible outcome from this entire scenario - a silver lining


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> WHO names the new mutation Omicron and say it is more infectious and can evade vaccines.
> 
> Countries are already reacting with travel bans and quarantines.


 ... imagine more lockdowns and restrictions coming ... I can hear the wolves crying.

Talk about the 2-sided-mouth posts from #7046 and 7048.


----------



## damian13ster

Careful what you wish for. Countries in Europe already found themselves creating super-spreader event of 40,000-100,000 people. Hardly productive in stopping the spread.

Eventually people will simply have enough. I think Canadians are not a nation to question anything - hence residential schools lasting into 1990s, but majority of nations won't stay silent if a line is crossed and the fallback will be felt out here as well


----------



## sags

They said on the radioi that this mutation has so many changes to the spikes they have never seen it before.

Some of the mutations they recognize and associate with higher rates of infection, increased possibility of re-infection, but all the others.........they have no clue what they will do.

Pfizer said they may be able to adapt their vaccine, but it would take time to do so. The estimates are around 90 days at the earliest.

This is not looking good for the winter. Canada is mobilizing to shut down air travel from some African countries.

The experts said it was bound to happen, with so much of the world un-vaccinated.

As I posted numerous times, the un-vaxxed are incubators of mutations and we are losing the war with the virus because of them.


----------



## damian13ster

There is 40% chance (number of people that received vaccine in South Africa) that it was a vaccinated person that contributed to mutation in south africa.
Only thing that is required for mutation is infection - and vaccinated people get infected
If virus is exposed to vaccine induced antibodies but is not destroyed by them, it learns how to deal with them


----------



## sags

They believe the virus originated in Botswana, where there is a 20% vaccination rate.


----------



## damian13ster

Truth is they don't know where it came from, but whether it is 20%,40%,or 90%, there is still a chance it came from vaccinated.
How else would the virus learn to deal with vaccine-induced antibodies if not by being exposed to the antibodies?
The moment it turned out that vaccines don't stop infection, they became useless in stopping the pandemic.

Let's hope this variant of concern is exactly what we want to end this pandemic - something that spreads like lighting and kills people at extremely low rate. So far zero victims from new variant. Nothing but positive news


----------



## doctrine

damian13ster said:


> Let's hope this variant of concern is exactly what we want to end this pandemic - something that spreads like lighting and kills people at extremely low rate. So far zero victims from new variant. Nothing but positive news


That would be positive. But on the other hand, if it is more deadly than delta (can hardly be that much more contagious), then a more likely outcome is cancelled passports....for those without boosters. And if it is truly vaccine resistant, then it might require a omicron-specific booster. Fasten your omicron seatbelts.


----------



## damian13ster

True, but invalidating vaccines will make more people question those in power and their decisions.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> As I posted numerous times, the un-vaxxed are incubators of mutations and we are losing the war with the virus because of them.


Please provide proof.


----------



## sags

You are the proof.


----------



## newfoundlander61

Getting my booster shot today.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> You are the proof.


The scientific data you have provided is extremely mind-blowing.


----------



## zinfit

Ontario just released a report on covid vaccination from December 2020 to November14 . 90.9% of all hospitalizations were the unvaccinated. The comparison for people over 60 is a compelling case in favor of vaccination. I suspect they will say this is flawed or altered data.


----------



## HappilyRetired

zinfit said:


> Ontario just released a report on covid vaccination from December 2020 to November14 . 90.9% of all hospitalizations were the unvaccinated. The comparison for people over 60 is a compelling case in favor of vaccination. I suspect they will say this is flawed or altered data.


Yesterday Global news said:
"For those in general hospital wards with COVID, 89 were unvaccinated, 9 were partially vaccinated and 47 were fully vaccinated. For those in ICUs, 62 were unvaccinated while 3 were partially vaccinated and 10 were fully vaccinated."

Ontario reports 927 new COVID-19 cases, 6 more deaths | Globalnews.ca 

That's nowhere near 90.9%.

And it doesn't differentiate if they're there "with Covid" for something unrelated or "because of Covid".


----------



## zinfit

HappilyRetired said:


> Yesterday Global news said:
> "For those in general hospital wards with COVID, 89 were unvaccinated, 9 were partially vaccinated and 47 were fully vaccinated. For those in ICUs, 62 were unvaccinated while 3 were partially vaccinated and 10 were fully vaccinated."
> 
> Ontario reports 927 new COVID-19 cases, 6 more deaths | Globalnews.ca
> 
> That's nowhere near 90.9%.
> 
> And it doesn't differentiate if they're there "with Covid" for something unrelated or "because of Covid".


Different report. The one i saw was entitled Adverse effects from immunization DEC 13 2020 to Nov 21 2022 . It is there weekly surveillance report. Perhaps spmeone with better computer skills can post it.


----------



## sags

We know the vaccinations provide temporary protection, hence the booster shots.

We haven't got a cure or a particularly good treatment yet, but with all the research being done globally......they will come.

In the meantime, stock up on what you might need if there is panic hoarding, wear a mask, social distance, and stay away from gatherings.

And get your booster shots.


----------



## Beaver101

^ At this point, I think prudent people knows what to do. For one, I'm staying away from the savages who're so keen on thinning the population.


----------



## sags

One problem is you don't know who is not vaccinated.

I was surprised to learn that our son's partner works in a daycare center where some staff members are not vaccinated.

I wonder if the parents of the kids have been told.

At my wife's work everyone must be vaccinated or they are home on unpaid leave and their jobs have been posted.

People make bad choices and life moves on without them.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> One problem is you don't know who is not vaccinated.
> 
> I was surprised to learn that our son's partner works in a daycare center where some staff members are not vaccinated.
> 
> I wonder if the parents of the kids have been told.


 ... I bet not otherwise there'll be an uproar. That "problem" will remain a problem as long as those "don't-wanna-to-be-called-sheep" keeps listening to the vaxxed-wolves not to vax (the irony) as it's their "rights" not to vax.



> At my wife's work everyone must be vaccinated or they are home on unpaid leave and their jobs have been posted.
> 
> People make bad choices and life moves on without them.


 ... you see, that can't happen either because they see it as life is NOT fair to them that they'll lose "their" jobs for being un-vaxxed, remaining a liability to their employer as if they're paying the employer to keep them on the job, never mind how unfair it is to the vaxxed employees either. 

It's the ME, ME, ME, ME mentality ... my rights and solely my rights count - as per the non-sheep-anti-vaxxers and their manipulating supporters.


----------



## damian13ster

South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’


Dr Angelique Coetzee noticed otherwise healthy patients showing unusual symptoms and worries how the new variant might hurt the elderly




www.telegraph.co.uk





Perfect, week symptoms, spreads light lightning. Ideal scenario. 
Now lets hope vaccines are absolutely useless


----------



## KaeJS

Thinning the population is good for the planet.


Beaver101 said:


> ... I bet not otherwise there'll be an uproar. That "problem" will remain a problem as long as those "don't-wanna-to-be-called-sheep" keeps listening to the vaxxed-wolves not to vax (the irony) as it's their "rights" not to vax.
> 
> ... you see, that can't happen either because they see it as life is NOT fair to them that they'll lose "their" jobs for being un-vaxxed, remaining a liability to their employer as if they're paying the employer to keep them on the job, never mind how unfair it is to the vaxxed employees either.
> 
> It's the ME, ME, ME, ME mentality ... my rights and solely my rights count - as per the non-sheep-anti-vaxxers and their manipulating supporters.


You're right.
Life is not fair.

So for all of you complaining about those who don't get vaxxed...

"Life is not fair. Deal with it."


----------



## sags

We are dealing with it.

It is the un-vaccinated who are crying and protesting about having restrictions put on them.

This is the "new normal" until we get a cure or treatment, so the un-vaxxed need to get over themselves.


----------



## Spudd

HappilyRetired said:


> Yesterday Global news said:
> "For those in general hospital wards with COVID, 89 were unvaccinated, 9 were partially vaccinated and 47 were fully vaccinated. For those in ICUs, 62 were unvaccinated while 3 were partially vaccinated and 10 were fully vaccinated."
> 
> Ontario reports 927 new COVID-19 cases, 6 more deaths | Globalnews.ca
> 
> That's nowhere near 90.9%.
> 
> And it doesn't differentiate if they're there "with Covid" for something unrelated or "because of Covid".


Zinfit was referring to the entire period that vaccines have been available. Here's a link to a news article discussing it:








Study shows 'amazing' effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine in preventing death, hospitalizations


"What it shows is that if you're vaccinated, you'll definitely be in the minority of people who end up with an infection, end up in hospital or end up dying."




ottawacitizen.com





Your link is from one day. And remember, 75+% of Ontarians are vaccinated, so the fact that the vast majority of those in hospital are unvaccinated is pretty damning.


----------



## sags

Canada has identified the first two cases of the Omicron variant in Ottawa.

They returned from Nigeria. If they had a pre-flight negative covid test how did they arrive infected ?

So much for testing.


----------



## zinfit

Spudd said:


> Zinfit was referring to the entire period that vaccines have been available. Here's a link to a news article discussing it:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Study shows 'amazing' effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine in preventing death, hospitalizations
> 
> 
> "What it shows is that if you're vaccinated, you'll definitely be in the minority of people who end up with an infection, end up in hospital or end up dying."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ottawacitizen.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Your link is from one day. And remember, 75+% of Ontarians are vaccinated, so the fact that the vast majority of those in hospital are unvaccinated is pretty damning.


thanks for posting this. To be opposed to vaccination means the person had trouble with basic math in the second grade.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Canada has identified the first two cases of the Omicron variant in Ottawa.
> 
> They returned from Nigeria. *If they had a pre-flight negative covid test* *how did they arrive infected ?*
> 
> So much for testing.


 ... great question. But then look no further than fake vaccine passports?


----------



## Beaver101

Wychwood elementary school closed to in-person learning due to COVID-19 outbreak

I don't understand why TDSB don't just send the kids home to spend an early Christmas. I'm guessing they're waiting directions from the flip-flopping Lecce, hiding somewhere in complete silence like he's been kidnapped or duct-taped.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> We are dealing with it.
> 
> It is the un-vaccinated who are crying and protesting about having restrictions put on them.
> 
> This is the "new normal" until we get a cure or treatment, so the un-vaxxed need to get over themselves.
> 
> View attachment 22417


You are dealing with it the same way Germans dealt with economic crisis in 1920. They also said 'we are dealing with it'

Not many people are opposed to vaccinations. They are opposed to mandates - significant difference.


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> You are dealing with it the same way Germans dealt with economic crisis in 1920. They also said 'we are dealing with it'
> 
> Not many people are opposed to vaccinations. They are opposed to mandates - significant difference.


wrong the large majority support mandates.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> wrong the large majority support mandates.


'Not many people you call anti-vaxxers actually oppose vaccinations. They oppose mandates'
That's the full sentence.

Of course large majority supports mandates. Scapegoating is extremely effective tactic. We have seen it in the past and we see it all over the world in recent history as well.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> 'Not many people you call anti-vaxxers actually oppose vaccinations. They oppose mandates'
> That's the full sentence.


 ... okay, then what do you call such people? Anti-mandaters [sic]? And then what do you call people like you, MrMatt, UKdude, and HappilyRetired who are "pro-vaxxers (on the assumption all of you are vaxxed), "supporting" or "claiming to support" such people? BSrs (polite term) comes to mind first.

Exclude KaeJS - it's clear he's NOT a pro-vaxxer and never will be as he stated he's not going to vax. But don't mind cheating about being vaxxed with a fake vax cert to enter a movie theatre. He stated that - at least he was truthful there.



> Of course large majority supports mandates. Scapegoating is extremely effective tactic. We have seen it in the past and we see it all over the world in recent history as well.


 ... then what's the problem to the wolves that the large majority are sheep people? Are the wolves feeling threatened that they'll be scapegoated that they have the need to "protect "the "undecided" sheep people from such mandates. How nice and kind ... for the manipulations, the whole 9 yards.

Remember - the air belongs to everyone in this world. The vaccine remains voluntary (but I do hope they ship out our unused/non-needed extras to countries that are without). And then there's still time to get your own island to rule.


----------



## damian13ster

Simple.
Those are people who believe in human rights, and believe that human rights, such as a right not to be penalized for not undergoing medical procedure, are above all and can't be violated by governments.

What you call it is up to you. I simply call them people who protect human rights above all else.
You can call them selfless, just, etc. There are lot of adjectives.

Yes, precisely. Allowing majority to use scapegoats leads to holocaust, Uighurs treatment, or residential schools - people who are aware of the simple fact want to avoid it. Wouldn't use words such as nice and kind either - I would hope one would see it as normal.
The fact that you don't speaks more about you than it does about them


----------



## zinfit

weak comparisions


damian13ster said:


> Simple.
> Those are people who believe in human rights, and believe that human rights, such as a right not to be penalized for not undergoing medical procedure, are above all and can't be violated by governments.
> 
> What you call it is up to you. I simply call them people who protect human rights above all else.
> You can call them selfless, just, etc. There are lot of adjectives.
> 
> Yes, precisely. Allowing majority to use scapegoats leads to holocaust, Uighurs treatment, or residential schools - people who are aware of the simple fact want to avoid it. Wouldn't use words such as nice and kind either - I would hope one would see it as normal.
> The fact that you don't speaks more about you than it does about them


. weak comparisons. Mandates are not sending people to death camps . The unvaccinated by their own decisions are in death camps and those camps are called ICUs.


----------



## damian13ster

In the 1920s and 1930s they weren't sending people to death camps either. But that's when scapegoating was strongest.
And if you remove someone's means to live, not allow them to earn income, get rid of social safety net that they paid into by making them ineligible then what do you call it?
Stalin didn't kill 50mln Ukrainians. He just took away their chance of making a living

If you believe that human rights aren't violated until someone gets sent into gas chambers then you won't notice until it is to late


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> Wychwood elementary school closed to in-person learning due to COVID-19 outbreak
> 
> I don't understand why TDSB don't just send the kids home to spend an early Christmas. I'm guessing they're waiting directions from the flip-flopping Lecce, hiding somewhere in complete silence like he's been kidnapped and (edit from "or") duct-taped.


 ... oh, another closure. Are French language schools not part of Ontario's Covid school plans?

Oshawa French school closing today due to COVID-19 outbreak

The today is Monday November 29, 2021.


----------



## Beaver101

Travel industry bracing for customer concerns as Omicron variant emerges

No further comments.


----------



## Beaver101

COVID-positive couple arrested after leaving hotel quarantine in the Netherlands

Just what other passengers need for their travelling - sitting next to an infected individual who was supposedly to be "acting responsibly", now all required to be quarantined (aka penalized).


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> In the 1920s and 1930s they weren't sending people to death camps either. But that's when scapegoating was strongest.
> And if you remove someone's means to live, not allow them to earn income, get rid of social safety net that they paid into by making them ineligible then what do you call it?
> Stalin didn't kill 50mln Ukrainians. He just took away their chance of making a living
> 
> If you believe that human rights aren't violated until someone gets sent into gas chambers then you won't notice until it is to late


incrediable rational


----------



## Beaver101

Not sure where to stick this and don't want to open a new thread so here it is:

Ontario to create largest hospital in Canada with Mississauga Hospital expansion

Great idea and jobs creation ... for the construction industry for sure ... will there be sufficient healthcare workers to attend to the additional beds?


----------



## damian13ster

Mzukwa said that very few people are being admitted to the hospital and the South African health care system is not under pressure.



> “Obviously, we’re still gathering information as to the spread of this Omicron in the country, but it is not what it is touted to be out there,” he said, noting that the South African government has not put the country under any further restrictions.
> “There is nothing much that we see beyond what we have seen with the Delta variant,” he said.


Asked about hospitalizations across the country, which have been seen as trending up over the last month, Mzukwa said that even in the province where the Omicron variant is concentrated, “we have not seen that much of hospitalization



Sounds like the best tactic is to wide open absolutely everything, hope that as many people as possible catch Omicron, and they get immunity boost from non-dangerous variant before potentially more dangerous one comes along


----------



## HappilyRetired

damian13ster said:


> Sounds like the best tactic is to wide open absolutely everything, hope that as many people as possible catch Omicron, and they get immunity boost from non-dangerous variant before potentially more dangerous one comes along


But then the drug companies would lose billions.


----------



## sags

_Mzukwa said _

WHO ?


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> _Mzukwa said _
> 
> WHO ?


Dr. Mvuyisi Mzukwa, vice chair of the South African Medical Association


----------



## damian13ster

First case in US is fully vaccinated person from California


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> Mzukwa said that very few people are being admitted to the hospital and the South African health care system is not under pressure.
> 
> 
> Asked about hospitalizations across the country, which have been seen as trending up over the last month, Mzukwa said that even in the province where the Omicron variant is concentrated, “we have not seen that much of hospitalization
> 
> 
> 
> Sounds like the best tactic is to wide open absolutely everything, hope that as many people as possible catch Omicron, and they get immunity boost from non-dangerous variant before potentially more dangerous one comes along


interesting that they pointed out that 90% of the hospitalizations were the unvaccinated.


----------



## sags

No news on better or worse symptoms that would solve the debate between the Moderna CEO and others on vaccine protection against the Omicron variant.

The Moderna CEO was optimistic in the morning, met with his science teams and was far less optimistic later in the day.

The public is getting conflicted views and we will have to wait and see.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> interesting that they pointed out that 90% of the hospitalizations were the unvaccinated.


90% of the Omicron hospitalizations or all hospitalizations?
For a country with 24% of population fully vaccinated that would show vaccines still offer some protection from hospitalization.
The question is whether protection from infection is even lower than 20% for delta


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> No news on better or worse symptoms that would solve the debate between the Moderna CEO and others on vaccine protection against the Omicron variant.
> 
> The Moderna CEO was optimistic in the morning, met with his science teams and was far less optimistic later in the day.
> 
> The public is getting conflicted views and we will have to wait and see.


 ... yep first Moderna's "CEO" said "not good news" and then Pfizer's "top scientist" said 'we're prepared". Here's Pfizer's top scientist's quip:

Pfizer's top scientist, Mikael Dolsten, tells us the 2 factors that will determine if Omicron is a true threat and shares Pfizer's worst-case-scenario plan

I think I'll go with the top scientist's read as much as I respect Moderna's vaccine. But the initial projection/comments from its "CEO" leaves me bewildered. Where're Moderna's scientists or medical experts?


----------



## HappilyRetired

I trust the top scientist from Pfizer even less than I trust Fauci.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> I trust the top scientist from Pfizer even less than I trust Fauci.


 ... whatever. Just in case you can't distinguish, Dr. A. Fauci isn't the vaccine developer. And you can continue with your daily trolling attempts.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... whatever. Just in case you can't distinguish, Dr. A. Fauci isn't the vaccine developer. And you can continue with your daily trolling attempts.


I didn't say he was a vaccine developer, I said I didn't trust him.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> I didn't say he was a vaccine developer, I said I didn't trust him.


 ... no doubt when you don't respond to the entire context where you trust the Pfizer's top scientist instead. So what's the point of your response? A whatever if not the trolling, I'm guessing.


----------



## damian13ster

So you think CEO of Moderna didn't speak to his own scientists?
He simply went on a media to disparage his own company based on a guess and not science.
That vaccines work perfectly but he went to the media to destroy value of his business?


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... no doubt when you don't respond to the entire context where you trust the Pfizer's top scientist instead. So what's the point of your response? A whatever if not the trolling, I'm guessing.


It's trolling to say that I don't trust a scientist at Pfizer? Take a look at Pfizer's track record. It's not out of line to be suspicious of their motives.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> So you think CEO of Moderna didn't speak to his own scientists?
> *He simply went on a media to disparage his own company based on a guess* and not science.


 ... oh, that's smart ... for a CEO. Duh.


> That vaccines work perfectly but he went to the media to destroy value of his business?


 ... now the vaccines work perfectly. Which is it? You're a known non-vaccine believer and now you're claiming the Moderna vaccines work perfectly. Talking from 2 sides of your mouth now?


----------



## damian13ster

No, you are simply an idiot and can't read,
The question (there is a question mark there, which is an indication that it is a question (hint, it was rhetorical one too) and not a statement) asks why would Moderna CEO make statement he did if his scientists told him that vaccines work?
He has no motive to lie about inefficiency of his own product


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> It's trolling to say that I don't trust a scientist at Pfizer?


 ... no, you're trolling when you say I trust Pfizer top scientist than Fauci. You're interjecting a political angle here so that's why I asked you to respond or look at the entire context of your response. 



> Take a look at Pfizer's track record. It's not out of line to be suspicious of their motives.


 ... whatever. Remember I'm one of those vaccinated sheep who got my head buried in the sand, hiding underneath my bed in fear, and not participating in society or the type you desire.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> No, you are simply an idiot and can't read,
> The question (there is a question mark there, which is an indication that it is a question (hint, it was rhetorical one too) and not a statement) asks why would Moderna CEO make statement he did if his scientists told him that vaccines work?
> He has no motive to lie about inefficiency of his own product


 ... yes, I'm an idiot and can't read as you're so intelligent to recognizing on shooting oneself in the foot. Re-read your own question which state the obvious answer. Which then means there's no need for your other part (rhetorics) without the question mark.



> *He simply went on a media to disparage his own company based on a guess *_ and not science._


And your rhetorical response still doesn't answer my question with your now claim:


> _.. now the vaccines work perfectly. Which is it? You're a known non-vaccine believer and now you're claiming the Moderna vaccines work perfectly. Talking from 2 sides of your mouth now?_


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... yes, I'm an idiot and can't read as you're so intelligent to recognizing on shooting oneself in the foot. Re-read your own question which state the obvious answer. Which then means there's no need for your other part (rhetorics) without the question mark.
> 
> 
> 
> And your rhetorical response still doesn't answer my question with your now claim:


Your question is pointless because I never made the claim you say I did. 
You simply completely misunderstood the post. 
Read it again, and if you still think I made that claim, then read it yet again. Repeat until you finally realize what is says.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Your question is pointless because I never made the claim you say I did.
> You simply completely misunderstood the post.
> Read it again, and if you still think I made that claim, then read it yet again. Repeat until you finally realize what is says.


 ... okay, assume that I misunderstood your post. Then explain it. I read it 3 times already and it still says the same. Now it's your opportunity to explain it since I can't realize what you're trying to say there.


----------



## damian13ster

1. You say you believe scientist (Pfizer) over CEO (Moderna)
2. I am saying that Moderna CEO has information from Moderna scientists, he didn't come up with a fact that vaccines are ineffective by himself
3. It is obvious because as CEO of the company he has no motive to lower its value by saying its product is inefficient
4. Therefore CEO of Moderna is telling what his scientist told him and there is no reason to believe him less than Pfizer scientist.
5. If CEO of company manufacturing the vaccines says vaccines are ineffective/less effective, that means he is telling the truth that scientists told him


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> 1. You say you believe scientist (Pfizer) over CEO (Moderna)


 ... not exactly but that should equate with my first sentence:



> _I think I'll go with the top scientist's read as much as I respect Moderna's vaccine._





> 2. I am saying that Moderna CEO has information from Moderna scientists, he didn't come up with a fact that vaccines are ineffective by himself


 ... by logic fair enough but that's still an assumption, not a "fact" unless you were there at Moderna.



> 3. It is obvious because as CEO of the company he has no motive to lower its value by saying its product is inefficient


 .. by logic, correct.



> 4. Therefore CEO of Moderna is telling what his scientist told him and there is no reason to believe him less than Pfizer scientist.


 ... again, that's an assumption.



> 5. If CEO of company manufacturing the vaccines says vaccines are ineffective/less effective, that means he is telling the truth that scientists told him


 ... another assumption but by logic, a CEO would unlikely want to shoot itself in the foot by telling such/the "truth". That's why post included another comment:


> ... _ But the initial projection/comments from its "CEO" leaves me bewildered. Where're Moderna's scientists or medical experts?_


 ... still doesn't answer my question nor does it inspire confidence on patients who took its vaccine as much as that truth is appreciated. 

Never mind about giving non-vaccine believers ammo (like you?) to continue pushing the anti-vax movement.


----------



## damian13ster

Scientists aren't and shouldn't be responsible for public relations of the company. Why would they be the ones going to the media?
If you provide facts, that is not giving those hesitant about the newly created vaccines ammunition. It is simply providing facts. 
There is absolutely nothing wrong with saying vaccines don't work or are less effective if that is the truth. Then people can adjust their behaviors. 
What do you suggest? Lying to them?


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Scientists aren't and shouldn't be responsible for public relations of the company. Why would they be the ones going to the media?
> If you provide facts, that is not giving those hesitant about the newly created vaccines ammunition. It is simply providing facts.
> There is absolutely nothing wrong with saying vaccines don't work or are less effective if that is the truth. Then people can adjust their behaviors.
> What do you suggest? Lying to them?


... but ... some people (even on this forum) said "well, the vaccine supposedly to "end the pandemic" because the government told them so too.". OK.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... but ... some people (even on this forum) said "well, the vaccine supposedly to "end the pandemic" because the government told them so too.". OK.


And that's the problem. Government lied. That doesn't mean scientists or CEO of Moderna should lie as well.
So I will ask the question again. What do you suggest they communicate to the public if it turns out vaccines are useless or very ineffective against omicron?


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> And that's the problem. Government lied. That doesn't mean scientists or CEO of Moderna should lie as well


 ... that depends on the liar's narrative, no? Okay, for some it's called fibbing or words mincing.


----------



## damian13ster

Any why not just tell the truth? What does narrative have to do with it? Your insistence of not telling the truth and sharing facts is very baffling


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Any why not just tell the truth? What does narrative have to do with it? Your insistence of not telling the truth and sharing facts is very baffling


 ... you tell me what narrative has to do with it.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... that depends on the liar's narrative, no? Okay, for some it's called fibbing or words mincing.


This is where 'narrative' was used. I never spoke of it. 
Why would I have to explain what narrative has to do with it? I never said anything about narrative.
I simply believe truth should be told, and neither governments, nor manufacturers should lie to the public.
Even if the truth is that vaccines are useless against omicron, or that they don't stop transmission.


----------



## sags

Then stop spreading FUD.


----------



## sags




----------



## HappilyRetired

Reporting cases without the fatality rate is meaningless. It's also misleading.


----------



## damian13ster

Where is Sweden?


----------



## sags

HappilyRetired said:


> Reporting cases without the fatality rate is meaningless. It's also misleading.


Death is the worst outcome, but there are others that are very bad as well, such as long hauler health problems.

Increased infections mean more hospitalizations, and hospital systems can be overwhelmed.

The virus also mutates inside a person who is sick with covid for a long time, but doesn't die from it.

That is how the Omicron variant was incubated.


----------



## sags

damian13ster said:


> Where is Sweden?


They are introducing new restrictions as their case numbers are increasing.









Sweden plans stricter Covid measures ‘next week’ amid rise in infections


Sweden is considering rolling out new guidelines and restrictions amid a renewed rise in Covid-19 infections, health chiefs told a press conference on Thursday.




www.thelocal.se





They are also injecting microchips under the skin for proof of vaccination.









Swedes get microchip implants after Covid passport mandate – latest updates


Covid-19 has infected more than 263M people and killed over 5.2M worldwide. Here are the coronavirus-related developments for December 1:




www.trtworld.com


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> Death is the worst outcome, but there are others that are very bad as well, such as long hauler health problems.
> 
> Increased infections mean more hospitalizations, and hospital systems can be overwhelmed.
> 
> The virus also mutates inside a person who is sick with covid for a long time, but doesn't die from it.
> 
> That is how the Omicron variant was incubated.


You're deflecting. How many people have died from Omicron?


----------



## sags

We don't know because experts weren't testing for the new variant.

They are going back and looking at past cases now, which is how they know it was spreading before it was discovered in South Africa.

They have traced cases of Omicron as far back as October now.

Your sole focus on death rates ignores all the other problems attached to the disease.

Many people didn't die from covid but are suffering from severe health problems from their infection.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Like Ford building a BIGGER hospital in Mississauga or his backyard of Etobicoke is gonna to help the long haulers even. Even they fill in the new space with beds only to collect dust. 

Hmmm... maybe not with this idea. The administrators can make use of the new areas for a 2nd office, like one for Friday in the new west wing whilst holding onto the old office in the east wing for Monday.

Anyhow, I can see Ontarians opening up their wallets wider ... in the very near future.


----------



## HappilyRetired

The Journal of the American Heart Association has issued a warning about the impact of mRNA vaccines on the heart. Now we have proof that the shot is unsafe.


----------



## HappilyRetired

HappilyRetired said:


> The Journal of the American Heart Association has issued a warning about the impact of mRNA vaccines on the heart. Now we have proof that the shot is unsafe.


In addition a CDC funded study has shown that there vaccinated people are just as infectious as unvaccinated people: 

"As this field continues to develop, clinicians and public health practitioners should consider vaccinated persons who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 to be no less infectious than unvaccinated persons. These findings are critically important, especially in congregate settings where viral transmission can lead to large outbreaks."

*Funding Statement*
This study was funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Transmission potential of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a federal prison, July—August 2021 | medRxiv


----------



## zinfit

Beaver101 said:


> ... whatever. Just in case you can't distinguish, Dr. A. Fauci isn't the vaccine developer. And you can continue with your daily trolling attempts.


I will be leaving this topic. There are three or four anti-vaccine deniers and they keep digging a deeper hole. I will stick with the Mayo Clinic and John Hopkins as my guide on vaccines . I respect your patience with these deniers and enablers. My parting comment is the economy and the healthcare system would have crashed if we didn't have the vaccines. I keep thinking that the mandates and restrictions are punishing the vaccinating for protecting a selfish group of anti-vaxxers. My patience with this group is about zero.


----------



## HappilyRetired

zinfit said:


> I will be leaving this topic. There are three or four anti-vaccine deniers and they keep digging a deeper hole. I will stick with the Mayo Clinic and John Hopkins as my guide on vaccines . I respect your patience with these deniers and enablers. My parting comment is the economy and the healthcare system would have crashed if we didn't have the vaccines. I keep thinking that the mandates and restrictions are punishing the vaccinating for protecting a selfish group of anti-vaxxers. My patience with this group is about zero.


You can't name 3 or 4 anti-vaxers, you're think of the 3 or 4 people that take vaccines but disagree with you on political policy. The CDC has said that the vaccinated spread Covid just as much as the unvaccinated. You can believe that or not, I don't care.


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> I will be leaving this topic. There are three or four anti-vaccine deniers and they keep digging a deeper hole.


 ... no problem. Nice to have you here to voice your opinion and lend support. As for the vax deniers (or their supporters here), some have turned to be vax-regretters ... god knows what's next. You can't deny them their right to free-speech here so let them be.



> I will stick with the Mayo Clinic and John Hopkins as my guide on vaccines


 ... medical experts in their fields no doubt.



> I respect your patience with these deniers and enablers.


 ... thank you. I'm sure I'm not the only person on this board who has this kind of patience so credits do go to them too.



> My parting comment is the economy and the healthcare system would have crashed if we didn't have the vaccines.


 ... definitely ... just look at Italy in 2020 at the very start of the pandemic. Their health systems almost collapsed with other countries following. When doctors start having to triage healthcare, that tells you the state of the healthcare systems plus what kind of care patients will be getting ... that's forcing the doctors' hands - to play God and that's a "hell no-no-go" in my books.



> I keep thinking that the mandates and restrictions are punishing the vaccinating for protecting a selfish group of anti-vaxxers. My patience with this group is about zero.


 ... I don't blame you for thinking that way. I'm getting there too with the thinning patience on dense brains. But then I don't like being pushed around so I'll continue to use the tuba here.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> You can't name 3 or 4 anti-vaxers, you're think of the 3 or 4 people that take vaccines but disagree with you on political policy. The CDC has said that the vaccinated spread Covid just as much as the unvaccinated. You can believe that or not, I don't care.


 .. you're correct there. Those 3/4 are not anti-vaxxers per se here on this forum as they have been vaxxed themselves (wonder why?) but are either 1. anti-vaxxers enablers or so called "supporters", and/or 2. vax-regretters in the name of "rights-exercising" (individual rights) in a pandemic. As if the virus cares.


----------



## damian13ster

Because we believe in human rights, medical privacy, no segregation, and are aware what ignoring those 3 eventually leads to - nothing more, nothing less than that.
We are on a trajectory from beginning of 20th century. That needs to be stopped - quickly


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Because we believe in human rights, medical privacy, no segregation, and are aware what ignoring those 3 eventually leads to - nothing more, nothing less than that.
> We are on a trajectory from beginning of 20th century. That needs to be stopped - quickly


... still time to get your own island or be invited to Rittenhouse's one as suggested by HappilyRetired.


----------



## damian13ster

Beaver101 said:


> ... still time to get your own island or be invited to Rittenhouse's one as suggested by HappilyRetired.


Is that the same you would tell to people in early 20th century?
Is that the same you would say to victims, families of the victims - you should have gotten your own island?
Amateur got their rights abused, got themselves segregated, and eventually killed - they should have done what Beaver101 said and got themselves a private island if they don't like direction their country was heading.....


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Is that the same you would tell to people in early 20th century?
> Is that the same you would say to victims, families of the victims - you should have gotten your own island?


 .. want to tell that to the deads buried over at Hart's Island?


----------



## Beaver101

Windsor hospitals under strain, asking public for help, patience

Of things to come. ... and December (aka Christmas/winter season) just started.


----------



## damian13ster

Holy ****, even CBC is finally realizing we have gone too far and government is full of science-deniers



https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-covid-measures-gaslighting-shifting-goalposts-1.6268380


----------



## Mortgage u/w

can't believe we are still debating vaccines! 
what's it going to take for the deniers to join the rest of the world?


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> can't believe we are still debating vaccines!
> what's it going to take for the deniers to join the rest of the world?


We're only debating a couple brand new shots that were rushed and that have had no long term testing results. We're also debating losing our rights.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> We're only debating a couple brand new shots that were rushed and that have had no long term testing results. We're also debating losing our rights.


how long is ‘long term’?


----------



## damian13ster

We aren't debating vaccines. We are debating authoritarianism and human rights. 
Science on vaccines is settled outside of Omicron:

prevent hospitalizations
don't prevent infections


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Sure. But authority is sometimes needed for the good of all. Have faith my friend.


----------



## damian13ster

Yes. The 'greater good' has always been cornerstone of every single authoritarianism and dictatorship


----------



## zinfit

Mortgage u/w said:


> can't believe we are still debating vaccines!
> what's it going to take for the deniers to join the rest of the world?


yes it defies basic math and logic.


----------



## zinfit

Mortgage u/w said:


> Sure. But authority is sometimes needed for the good of all. Have faith my friend.


yes it is called the rule of law and due process. With the introduction of the car we needed stop signs and signal lights. There is no such thing as absolute rights. When one persons rights start taking away my rights it stops.


----------



## damian13ster

a) you don't see a difference between forced medical intervention and seat belts/red lights? Seriously?
b) that argument died when it turned out vaccinated people spread the virus. Your rights arent protected by other people being vaccinated


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> how long is ‘long term’?


The average vaccine trial lasts 5 - 10 years, although some are faster. One year of data is not long term.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> The average vaccine trial lasts 5 - 10 years, although some are faster. One year of data is not long term.


so is that your personal conclusion or you are simply trusting the experts with those averages? Cause 5-10 years - they could be wrong. Why not 10-15 years?
Point is, if you trust them when they say 5-10 years, why do you no longer trust them with the current situation? Have they turned against us?


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> yes it is called the rule of law and due process. With the introduction of the car we needed stop signs and signal lights. There is no such thing as absolute rights. When one persons rights start taking away my rights it stops.


 ... but some people don't see it that way ... it's ONLY their rights that count in this world.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Do you think that they take routinely 5 - 10 years to test a vaccine just for fun but that the Covid shots were magical exemptions?


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... but some people don't see it that way ... it's ONLY their rights that count in this world.


Some people don't see that standing up for their right also means standing up for your rights.

You have the right to wear a mask and social distance. You don't have the right to take away people's freedom because you're scared.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> Do you think that they take routinely 5 - 10 years to test a vaccine just for fun but that the Covid shots were magical exemptions?


 ... no, then what was Operation Warp Speed about? I hope you realize that operation wasn't made up.


----------



## Beaver101

> Some people don't see that standing up for their right also means standing up for your rights.


 ... BS. I don't need you to stand up for my rights of your choosing. And as if the anti-vaxxers need you to stand up for theirs.



> You have the right to wear a mask and social distance. You don't have the right to take away people's freedom because you're scared.


 ... why am I taking away other people's freedom 'cause I'm sooooo scare ... of you. That's what the laws are here for .... of which the likes of you will then label as being authoritarianism.

Again, you can get your own Freedom Island which you can set and exercise your rights anyway you want.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... no, then what was Operation Warp speed about? I hope you realize that operation wasn't made up.


I remember Operation Warp Speed. Several prominent Democrats publicly stated that they'd never trust a vaccine that Trump helped to market. But the day that Joe took office they conveniently changed their minds.

My mind never changed with the change in office.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> Again, you can get your own Freedom Island which you can set and exercise your rights anyway you want.


I will exercise my rights anyway I want any place I want. You can run and hide if it bothers you.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> I remember Operation Warp Speed. Several prominent Democrats publicly stated that they'd never trust a vaccine that Trump helped to market. But the day that Joe took office they conveniently changed their minds.
> 
> My mind never changed with the change in office.


 ... of course your mind never changed with the change in office. However, you do change your mind about the safety of the vaccine re above posts "WE NEED ANOTHER 5 TO 10 YEARS to test" as "I NEED TO STAND UP FOR THE RIGHTS OF THE ANTI-VAXXERS" ... okay. Dickety doo.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> I will exercise my rights anyway I want any place I want. You can run and hide if it bothers you.


 ... yep, your island (aka you own it) so why would I need to run and hide "from" it? when I'm not even on it.


----------



## Beaver101

Unvaccinated child is York Region's first Omicron variant case



> _Last Updated Friday, December 3, 2021 6:23PM EST
> York Region has confirmed its first positive case of the COVID-19 Omicron variant in a child who recently travelled to southern Africa, according to the region’s top doctor.
> 
> Dr. Barry Pakes, York Region’s medical officer of health, told CTV News Barrie that a child under the age of 12 tested positive after travelling to southern Africa with a family member ... _


 ... would/will be interesting to hear on whether his/her parent(s) were vaccinated or not.


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> ... oh, another closure. Are French language schools not part of Ontario's Covid school plans?
> 
> Oshawa French school closing today due to COVID-19 outbreak
> 
> The today is Monday November 29, 2021.


 ... here we go again, another day, another reporting:

TPH recommends dismissal of students from North York school following COVID-19 investigation

School, church close in Barrie after dozens of COVID-19 cases confirmed

I wonder how long this "School Closures due to Covid" list is going to for ... like a countdown to Xmas. LOL.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> Do you think that they take routinely 5 - 10 years to test a vaccine just for fun but that the Covid shots were magical exemptions?


but it’s the same people giving you these figures and test results. You choose to accept one and not the other. Why? Were you one of the scientists responsible for all these researches and disagreed with the team?


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> a) you don't see a difference between forced medical intervention and seat belts/red lights? Seriously?
> b) that argument died when it turned out vaccinated people spread the virus. Your rights arent protected by other people being vaccinated
> [/QUOTE





Beaver101 said:


> ... of course your mind never changed with the change in office. However, you do change your mind about the safety of the vaccine re above posts "WE NEED ANOTHER 5 TO 10 YEARS to test" as "I NEED TO STAND UP FOR THE RIGHTS OF THE ANTI-VAXXERS" ... okay. Dickety doo.


I am almost at the point of having the anti-vaxxers pay the full cost of hospital and medical care if they get covid. This would be a strong demonstration of standing up for their rights. Given their hostility towards medical science I am puzzled why they come to the hospitals and plug up other medical services for people who do trust medical science.


----------



## HappilyRetired

zinfit said:


> I am almost at the point of having the anti-vaxxers pay the full cost of hospital and medical care if they get covid. This would be a strong demonstration of standing up for their rights. Given their hostility towards medical science I am puzzled why they come to the hospitals and plug up other medical services for people who do trust medical science.


And yet Pfizer is not liable for anyone that has died from the shot. And obese people can eat themselves into a heart attack and also not pay anything.

Sounds perfectly fair


----------



## sags

Sounds wise.....which is a good thing.

_For wisdom is better than rubies; and all the things that may be desired are not to be compared unto her._


----------



## sags

_Anti-vaxxers go where angels fear to tread._


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## damian13ster

Portugal just announced that vaccine passports are no longer sufficient.
In order to access healthcare facilities, go for a party, or a bar, negative test will be required


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> I am almost at the point of having the anti-vaxxers pay the full cost of hospital and medical care if they get covid. This would be a strong demonstration of standing up for their rights. Given their hostility towards medical science I am puzzled why they come to the hospitals and plug up other medical services for people who do trust medical science.


a) if you think human rights are only for those who can afford it, there is something seriously wrong with you

b) No, it really wouldn't. In this country, healthcare is publicly funded. That means through my taxes I pay for stupidity of others. Whether they text and drive, become fat, unhealthy, refuse vaccines, or do any other stupid thing resulting in injury.
They come to hospitals or plug up medical services before they are forced to pay for them involuntarily through the force of government.
Whether a move to semi-private healthcare would be wise when people finally are starting to realize that life-choices you make affect how much of a burden to healthcare system you are, that is a discussion that could be opened.
Until then healthcare is public and we are all forced to pay for it, we will all pay for each others stupidity. Obesity, lack of vaccination, accidents, et al.


----------



## zinfit

the anti-vaxxers when they are hospitized will be taking a wide variety of medical treatments including intervenous anti-viral treatments ,. These are recent medical developments with a very short history. I hoped these deniers are consistent with there positions when they get to the hospital.


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## damian13ster

You assume that if they choose not to proceed, with a single procedure then they are now obliged to choose not to proceed with any other medical procedure?
Or maybe people should lose their jobs and ability to move freely if they choose not to go with anti-viral treatments?

As a patient should you even have a say on medical procedure at all?
Maybe let's just stop it, and not have people have any input in their medical choices? You know, like we used to, for the benefit of society? Forced sterilization, etc. - for benefit of society of course. After all, your rights don't matter when you are a part of society

Genetic mapping is in development now. We can see who is more susceptible for some diseases. And we can see who has genes responsible for aggression, sociopathy. Might as well force other medical procedures to protect society - euthanasia, abortion, etc. And if you choose not to go through with them, then you will pay for any consequences out of your own pocket, of course not allowed to work either, or travel, or socialize - all to benefit the society
Your rights don't matter when you are a part of society


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## sags

None of the other health issues shut down hospital wings and infect other patients and medical staff.

None require the extensive health safety protocols as covid does.

None are filling up the hospitals at the rate of the un-vaccinated and preventing treatment for others of different health issues.

Any comparison of covid with other diseases is not relevent, non productive, and juvenile.


----------



## damian13ster

Not true. At not a single point was number of patients with COVID a majority of patients taking up hospital beds.
Therefore, there are other diseases/sicknesses/health issues that have higher strain on health care system - that's a fact.

And we aren't talking about diseases, etc. We are talking about whether people should have a say in what medical decisions they take. Whether they should be forced or coerced to a medical decisions.
Whether that medical decision is abortion, euthanasia, antiviral treatment, sterilization, prevention, diagnostics, or anything else. 
Are we are a point where government decides what medical procedure you have or not?
We were at that point before, just ask indigenous community - do you want to go back to it?


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## sags

That debate was settled decades ago, when all pubic school kids were required to have vaccinations.


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## damian13ster

Yes. It was also settled by Mengele, when Canada decided to have forced sterilizations, eugenics, etc. - it was wrong back then, and it is wrong now.
Just accept that some people aren't fine with that.

And in the meantime it is finally time for vaccinated to line up for tests:
Portugal just announced that vaccine passports are no longer sufficient.
In order to access healthcare facilities, go for a party, or a bar, negative test will be required


----------



## sags

_Just accept that some people aren't fine with that._

We do and choose to ignore them, but they are like a bad rash and keep coming back.


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## damian13ster

sags said:


> _Just accept that some people aren't fine with that._
> 
> We do and choose to ignore them, but they are like a bad rash and keep coming back.


Yeah, as they did for Mengele and residential schools in Canada.
Easy to see on which side you would stand.
Thank god for the people who noticed it was wrong and tried - ultimately succeeding, to change that


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## sags

Canada sent troops overseas, killed some Nazis, and hung some at Nurenberg.........and now you know the rest of the story.


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## damian13ster

And then they came back to enforce sterilizations at residential schools back home.

Too bad there wasn't another country that came in here to help the segregated population - or that people here did not stand up and help stop forced medical procedures. Let's not make the same mistakes again


----------



## Beaver101

zinfit said:


> the anti-vaxxers when they are hospitized will be taking a wide variety of medical treatments including intervenous anti-viral treatments ,. These are recent medical developments with a very short history. I hoped these deniers are consistent with there positions when they get to the hospital.


 ... the deniers/vaccine-regretters/anti-vaccine supporters here are just spewing everything to see what sticks ... at the end of the day, they're still stucked here in this country as law-abiding citizens whether they like it or not.


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## damian13ster

Update: Now at least 80-90 of the 120 fully vaccinated participants got omicron from single christmas party.
Vaccines are proving to be useless against it - brilliant news









Omicron superspreader found


What is believed to be the world’s first Omicron superspreader event has been discovered in Europe.




www.news.com.au


----------



## andrewf

Celebrating vaccines being ineffective is a bit f'ed up. Dancing on the inevitable graves...


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## HappilyRetired

andrewf said:


> Celebrating vaccines being ineffective is a bit f'ed up. Dancing on the inevitable graves...


Who is celebrating? What about the people who love to post articles about someone unvaxed that died? Dancing on graves too? You might even be one of them (I can't be bothered to look).


----------



## Beaver101

andrewf said:


> Celebrating vaccines being ineffective is a bit f'ed up. Dancing on the inevitable graves...


 ... I'm glad I'm not the only one interpreting that as a "celebration" if not a "cheering" from another loud mouth flakey trolling A+ accuser damian13ster.

Like I said before, keep it up with the Trolls R Us gang who needs to be "Right" and to "Win" here.



> *damian13ster*
> _#7,179 __· 6 h ago
> 
> Update: Now at least 80-90 of the 120 fully vaccinated participants got omicron from single christmas party.
> Vaccines are proving to be useless against it - _*brilliant news*


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... I'm glad I'm not the only one interpreting that as a "celebration" if not a "cheering" from another loud mouth flakey trolling A+ accuser damian13ster.
> 
> Like I said before, keep it up with the Trolls R Us gang here.





Beaver101 said:


> ... here we go again, another day, another reporting:
> 
> TPH recommends dismissal of students from North York school following COVID-19 investigation
> 
> School, church close in Barrie after dozens of COVID-19 cases confirmed
> 
> I wonder how long this "School Closures due to Covid" list is going to for ... *like a countdown to Xmas. LOL.*


Were you cheering or laughing?


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> Were you cheering or laughing?


 ... neither. Only you would view it as cheering/laughing/celebrating when you take that out of context as you usually do. So why don't you read that post as attachment to an "earlier post" where I said I don't understand why the TDSB don't let the schoolkids out /start their Xmas holidays earlier instead of closing it here and there, (when the trends clearly indicate increasing spreads amongst the schools). That's called a "concern" for the spreads. And then as a taxpayer, that's considered wasting time if not money with the closures, on and off. Does TDSB still need to wait/get directions from the honourable MOE MIA flipflopping Leccee?

Also, you should be first asking damian13ster "your" question of "what's wrong with you?" with his post #7179 but chose not to instead by trolling andrewf first. Wonder why.

PS: If you want to see a "laugh" from me, see emoticon to sags' post #7174 which is spot on with the Trolls R Us gang here.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Yeah, we get it. You're allowed to interpret people's posts any way you want but you won't be held to the same standard. Hypocrite.


----------



## damian13ster

andrewf said:


> Celebrating vaccines being ineffective is a bit f'ed up. Dancing on the inevitable graves...


Ineffective vaccines > authoritarianism, segregation.
It is a trade-off, like any other decision. Simply authoritarianism, segregation, human rights violation always lead to tens of millions of deaths. Much more dangerous than not stopping infection, and it is not even close

I am happy vaccines stop from hospitalizations. Happy also that they don't stop from infections.
Now just need politicians to stop denying science


----------



## sags

You completely ignore the mutations that are being incubated in places like Africa where there is a vaccination rate of 8% for a single dose.

We now have the Omicron variant to deal with, and likely there will be more variants incubating within the un-vaccinated populations.

Omicron may or may not be an "escape" variant, but it likely isn't the last mutation we see either.

The only way out of this pandemic is to vaccinate the world so the virus can't mutate.

Otherwise, we are just waiting for the doomsday variant to appear somewhere in the world.

You are "denying the science" of how viruses mutate.


----------



## damian13ster

It is vaccinated that spread it all aaround the world.Just read about first cases in Canada, US, any European country. Christmas party of 120 fully vaccinated people resulted in at least 80-90 infections.
When it comes to omicron, so far vast majority of cases is vaccinated. There is zero evidence that it was unvaccinated who helped the variant develop or spread.
Virus mutates with each infection. Vaccinated spread. Therefore vaccinated mutate the virus.
There is no science behind your claims - as always


----------



## sags

Wrong.......it was incubated and spread through non vaccinated populations, likely in Botswana and then spread into South Africa.

It was the Omicron mutation that became resistant to vaccines, not the original infecting virus.

The mutation was extensive and scientists believe an un-vaccinated person with AIDS had the virus for a long time before they died.

The scientists went back and checked samples of the virus taken from patients and linked it to an AIDS patient in Botswana last October.

The danger is that a future mutation among the un-vaccinated population may be far worse than Omicron.

For some inexplicable reason you believe herd immunity will suddenly work, when all it has done in the past is create new variants.

Natural immunity through infection has not and will not be an effective strategy.

If it was up to you......we would sit and wait for the "doomsday" variant to arrive.


----------



## damian13ster

Why and how would it learn how to evade vaccine induced antibodies if it didnt meet vaccine induced antibodies?
Now your posts no longer lack science. They lack common sense
virus was already great at infecting vaccinated - 20% protection. It was spreading among vaccinated as quickly as unvaccinated. Just look at correlation of vaccination rate and number of cases in a country - research was posted here. Hint: there is no correlation. and if infection isnt slowed down then neither is mutation


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> Yeah, we get it. You're allowed to interpret people's posts any way you want but you won't be held to the same standard. Hypocrite.


 .... who is the "we"? Why, don't you have your own imagination on "getting it" that you have to include someone else as well as use someone else's line AGAIN?

Also, I have been called a Hypocrite by damian13ster already so what are you? A Flake? And what standards do I hold you and everyone else on this board to? 'Cause you're afraid of someone else being able to exercise their right to free speech, hiding under their bed from you and that you can't now? 

No, you're not a Hypocrite, just a bloody genuine O'Flakey, if not a Dickety Doo too with a dense head full of peas for a brain.

And why are my posts deleted again? And by which mod?


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Why and how would it learn how to evade vaccine induced antibodies if it didnt meet vaccine induced antibodies?
> Now your posts no longer lack science. They lack common sense
> virus was already great at infecting vaccinated - 20% protection. It was spreading among vaccinated as quickly as unvaccinated. Just look at correlation of vaccination rate and number of cases in a country - research was posted here. Hint: there is no correlation. and if infection isnt slowed down then neither is mutation


 ... hint genius: how do you propose to slow down the mutation? How about:

1. Using Ukrainedude's method of "doing nothing" or natural "population thinning methodology", starting with ridding the burdensome boomers (his words, not mine's) that would include his parents and grandparents I would gather. [This doesn't include his facetious suggestion of jabbing "toddlers monthly too" that HappilyRetired described it as despicable whilst attempting to pin that sick idea on me.]

2. The vaccine can't be trusted - we need 5 to 10 years to test (HappilyRetired's solution)... and meanwhile don't vaccinate 'cause the vaxxed will spread to the loud-mouthed unvaccinateds so what's the difference, right? (Yours) Just sit and watch. Or is it your preference for lockdowns and restrictions, never mind about forever-masking (not for Eder's ears on this one)?

3. In which case, how about sending the unused vaccines from the anti-vaxxers to the poorer nations who need them. Oh no, that's a problem too 'cause the unvaxxed and all their loud-mouth enablers/O'Flakey supporters have rights too ... paying for them, and 1,000 other excuses.

4. Oh, almost forgot your real famous one - test ... test everyone and I mean "everyone" every day to see if they're negative in which case they can then move about, to work (in your case from home), to go to school, to shop, or go the doctor's office, etc.

Bottomline: you're just whining/trolling needlessly here. The virus ain't waiting for you and neither the vaxxeds. And the government of Canada will continue to run this country on the unvaxxeds too, like it or not. And the air still doesn't belong to you and your ilks.


----------



## Beaver101

Canadian employers, facing labour shortage, accommodate the unvaccinated



> Published Sunday, December 5, 2021 2:54PM EST
> _OTTAWA, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Canada's tight labor market is forcing many companies to offer regular COVID-19 testing over vaccine mandates, while others are reversing previously announced inoculation requirements even as Omicron variant cases rise.
> 
> Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government adopted one of the strictest inoculation policies in the world for civil servants and has already put more than 1,000 workers on unpaid leave, with thousands more at risk.
> 
> Airlines, police forces, school boards and even Canada's Big Five banks have also pledged strict mandatory vaccine policies. But following through has proven less straightforward, especially as employers grapple with staffing shortages and workers demand exemptions.
> 
> Job vacancies in Canada have doubled so far this year, official data shows, and vaccine mandates can make filling those jobs harder, potentially putting upward pressure on wages. That could fuel inflation, already running at a near two-decade high.
> 
> "It's already difficult to find staff, let alone putting in a vaccine mandate. You'd cut out potentially another 20%" of potential workers, said Dan Kelly, chief executive of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.
> 
> There are pitfalls to employing the unvaccinated. Companies run a higher risk of COVID-19 outbreaks and many vaccinated employees are uncomfortable working with those who have not had the jab, said industry groups and marketing experts.
> 
> At Luda Foods, a Montreal-based soup and sauce maker, president Robert Eiser said he has 14 open jobs, no vaccine mandate and no plans to restrict new hires to the vaccinated.
> 
> "I don't know that I want to reduce the (labor) pool, which is already quite low," said Eiser. "We need to attract people to meet the demand. If we don't, our competitors will."
> 
> Data released on Friday underpinned Canada's tight labor market, with a hefty 153,700 jobs added in November. It also showed a growing mismatch between available workers and unfilled jobs. And job postings are far above pre-pandemic levels.
> 
> *WALKING BACK*
> The province of Quebec backtracked on a vaccine mandates for healthcare workers last month, saying they could not afford to lose thousands of unvaccinated staff. Ontario, which was also eyeing a mandate, said it would not go ahead.
> 
> *Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Montreal have both softened their vaccine policy to allow regular testing for workers who missed their Oct. 31 inoculation deadline.*
> 
> In Canada, 86% of adults are fully inoculated, though that drops under 80% among 18-40 year olds. At least 15 cases of the new Omicron variant in Canada have been reported in the past week.
> John Cappelli, vice president of onsite managed services in Canada for global recruitment firm Adecco, said half of his clients are mandating vaccines with the other half allowing regular testing for the unvaccinated.
> 
> But he expects the Omicron variant will prompt more workplaces to get strict on vaccination, even as they grapple with the tightest job market he's seen in his 25-year career.
> 
> "We are now starting to see our first workplace (COVID-19) cases in five months," he said.
> 
> The number of Canadian job postings on search website Indeed mentioning vaccine requirements has quadrupled since August.
> 
> In the hard-hit manufacturing sector, where 77% of firms say their top concern is attracting and retaining workers, vaccine mandates are more rare.
> 
> Dennis Darby, CEO of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, said most of Canada's factories have operated safely throughout the pandemic. While CME encourages vaccination, "some companies are still using rapid testing if somebody doesn't want to get vaccinated," he added.
> But companies risk a hit to their reputation if they are overt in efforts to tap into the unvaccinated as a labor pool, said Wojtek Dabrowski, managing partner at Provident Communications.
> 
> "If you go out and say, 'We are intentionally seeking to hire unvaccinated people,' many customers are equating that with you being anti-science and anti-safety," said Dabrowski.
> 
> (Reporting by Julie Gordon and Steve Scherer in Ottawa, additional reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg and Nichola Saminather in Toronto Editing by Alistair Bell)_


 ... I'm very surprised that the "banks" are having labour shortages. What happened to the option of working from home as an unvaxxed for such occupational settings? Now, by allowing the unvaxxeds in the office, working /collaborating (aka mingling) with the vaxxed employees (just like back to normal/pre-pandemic days), are employers not concerned with the risk/liability of who infects who, more employees getting sick, never mind about ditching the extra costs to test to accommodate a small group of employees.

Will be very interesting to see if the labour shortage is actually due to the unvaxxeds not on the job or the vaxxeds then quitting or more employees getting sick due to sharing the spread. Or is the employer that confident that there'll be no infected employee on the job?


----------



## Beaver101

*Warning:* 11 minutes read, at your own will/risk.

In a small Ontario town caught in COVID’s rural-urban divide, ‘people don’t even talk to each other’



> The Toronto Star Newspapers Limited. Dec 6, 2021.
> 
> _DUNNVILLE, Ont. At Stefanie’s Family Hair Care in downtown Dunnville, beside a statue of a blissed-out frog, a sign greets customers: “Out of respect for everyone’s ‘Personal Choice’ no talk of vaccines in the shop.”
> 
> Owner Stefanie Price was tired of the arguments. Clients would come in for highlights only to find themselves in a heated battle with another customer over masks or vaccines. She longed for simpler times, when people complained about their husbands or the weather. “Anything but that,” she says.
> 
> She won’t say whether she is vaccinated. Customers haven’t asked, and she wants to remain neutral. Her salon is meant to be a place to relax and talk about life — just not the one conversation that’s dominating and dividing the town.
> 
> In the first waves of the pandemic, densely populated places like Toronto and Peel were hit hard while many small towns were relatively sheltered from the virus. But this fall, the trouble is increasingly found in wide-open spaces, as more rural communities struggle with higher case counts. In late October, one in 10 people in the Dunnville area who had a COVID test was positive for the virus as outbreaks hit the local hardware store, hospital and a school. Northern Ontario is also seeing concerning numbers: The most recent data shows Algoma and Timiskaming at the top of the charts for positive tests, along with the Haldimand-Norfolk health unit in southwestern Ontario, which includes Dunnville.
> 
> Some places struggling with COVID-19 have not embraced vaccination as enthusiastically as many bigger cities have. In Aylmer, a southwestern town with notorious vaccine resistance, the virus continues to fester, overwhelming the regional hospital and disrupting schools. At the end of November, the public health unit brought back capacity limits for eight towns in a bid to stop the spread.
> 
> Todd Coleman, an assistant professor of health sciences at Laurier University, says that while you’d need a detailed breakdown of vaccine status to determine whether the lower vaccination rates are driving virus spread, there is a “rural-urban divide” with vaccines.
> 
> Dunnville has the lowest vaccine uptake in the Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit, a region that is itself below the provincial average. Dr. Matt Strauss, acting medical officer of health for Haldimand-Norfolk, says that lower uptake is a factor in spread, but not the whole story. He explains that communities with higher vaccination rates likely have higher adherence to public health measures. There is also the risk of waning immunity for vaccinated people — why booster shots are so important, he says.
> 
> While the majority of people in Dunnville are vaccinated, the holdouts are a skeptical group. An independent streak runs through this part of the province, where the habit of questioning authority tends to begin with the authority figures themselves. Back in June, county mayors Kristal Chopp and Ken Hewitt had protest haircuts when their region was left behind in provincial reopening. In October, Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis (Haldimand-Norfolk) said Canadian children were being used as “shields for adults” with vaccines.
> 
> Before his appointment, Strauss made the kind of posts you don’t tend to see from a prospective public health leader. When Florida reopened without restrictions, he asked how he could apply for refugee status. When Premier Jason Kenney said that it was “time for media to stop promoting fear” in July, before Alberta’s “best summer ever” ended in a state of emergency, Strauss retweeted him. Throughout the pandemic, the ICU doctor has questioned the efficacy of lockdowns.
> 
> Kristal Chopp, the mayor of Norfolk, who is also the chair of the board of health, brushed aside his “colourful Twitter feed” in the Port Dover Maple Leaf after his hiring caused major controversy: “First, let me state that Dr. Strauss doesn’t wear a tin foil hat, attend QAnon meetings or espouse conspiracy theories,” she wrote. “Let me make this Kristal Clear, Dr. Strauss believes in vaccinations, which the last time I checked is the strongest public health measure we have available in our tool box.”
> 
> “The status quo hasn’t worked but maybe, just maybe, someone like Dr. Strauss can provide a unique perspective and better connect with those that remain skeptical that vaccinations are indeed our way out of the pandemic.”
> 
> On the drive into Dunnville, visitors are greeted by a gigantic catfish. Muddy is a nod to the fish that swim in the nearby Grand River and a source of pride as the biggest mudcat statue in the world. Earlier in the pandemic, the fish was protected by a blue mask, but on a recent autumn day, the flat-headed fellow was gaping at cars as they drove into town from the surrounding farmland. Located just north of Lake Erie, this used to be a factory town, but now it’s a bedroom community for Hamilton and Niagara.
> 
> The Haldimand War Memorial Hospital is a major employer. Built to honour the sacrifices of First World War soldiers, the downtown hospital is a beloved institution. For the last four years, the local Tim Hortons has sold the most Smile cookies in Canada, with proceeds going to the hospital foundation. In 2021, that worked out to eight cookies for each of Dunnville’s 6,000 or so residents.
> 
> The hospital nearly closed during the Mike Harris era, and people still talk about the rally to save it. When the bureaucrats showed up for a meeting at the hospital, farmers sat atop tractors and combines. People marched through the streets, defiantly waving protest signs: “Kill our hospital and you kill our town.”
> 
> Back then, it was clear whose side everybody was on. That’s not the case anymore.
> 
> At the hospital, early support of health-care “heroes” gave way to something more complicated. Anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers made trouble, denying the science, arguing with staff, sometimes becoming violent, says the hospital’s president and CEO, Sharon Moore. Some employees retired early or quit.
> 
> In the early days of the pandemic, Dunnville felt far from the fear that gripped cities like Toronto. But the virus eventually arrived. Haldimand-Norfolk has the second-largest population of migrant workers per capita in Ontario. The people so crucial to the province’s food supply live in bunkhouses, which made them especially vulnerable to COVID outbreaks. Some restrictions put in place by the health unit were met with protest and legal action by the farming community.
> 
> Jacob Shelley, an associate professor at Western University’s faculty of law and school of health studies, is originally from nearby Simcoe. This part of the province is often overlooked, he says.
> 
> “It’s easy to to not pay attention, but there is a pretty dominant perspective of some things, including farming,” he says.
> 
> With vaccination rates lagging in the region in September, the hospital implored locals to get vaccinated. Dunnville has the lowest uptake in the health unit, and stats show the numbers haven’t moved much, even after the outbreaks this fall. Currently, 76.6 per cent of people over 12 in the Dunnville postal code are fully vaccinated. In Haldimand-Norfolk, 81.8 per cent of people are fully vaccinated. Both numbers are below Ontario’s vaccination rate of 87.2 per cent. Since peaking in late October, the rate of positive COVID tests is now back in line with the provincial average.
> At the Tim Hortons, locals rush inside, their winter jackets zipped tight against the north wind. It’s a friendly crowd, and everyone who chats is vaccinated, except for one maskless man ordering a breakfast sandwich, but he is from Welland. “There’s nothing we can do about it,” says a fully vaccinated Joyce Marr. “There’s no sense fighting with them.”
> 
> A few streets away, at the public health office, seniors show up every 10 minutes or so for their booster. This morning, the news is bleak. A new variant called Omicron has put the world on edge.
> 
> Logan Ritchie, 19, has also come for his third shot. “I’m on the town’s Facebook group, and it is a war zone,” he says. In one recent post about booster shots, one man calls the vaccine an “experiment on the homosapien race.” Another says: “It is 100% fear-mongering to get everyone divided and compliant. I can’t believe people can be so blind.”
> 
> Not everyone is peddling conspiracy theories. Some are concerned about side effects, some distrust the government. In a Facebook message, one local tells the Star that she doesn’t fully believe in COVID: “I believe it exists but is not what they (the government) make it to be.” Vaccine resistance and misinformation are problems in cities, too. But with fewer health-care professionals in rural areas, social media and word-of-mouth can fill the vacuum, says Todd Coleman. “Fear-based messaging … goes a lot faster and works its way through a community.”
> 
> “We’re fighting against a lot of misinformation, and a lot of rhetoric, for lack of a better word, on social media,” says Sarah Page, the chief of the region’s paramedic service, and the vaccine lead until recently. But they’ve made gains. At the bottom of the provincial vaccine rankings this summer, the health unit is now in the “middle of the pack.”
> 
> Bernie Corbett, the Haldimand County councillor who has represented Dunnville for many years says he received a letter from a disappointed supporter when he shared information about vaccines.
> 
> “I’m sorry,” Corbett says in an interview. “You may have supported me, but this is my belief.”
> 
> Dunnville has a strong religious population, he says, and some have objections. “Their comment is ‘the Lord will look after me.’ I do not choose to marginalize these comments,” he writes in a followup message. “I respect they have their beliefs.”
> 
> There are more than a dozen churches in Dunnville, and four are reformed churches. One pastor said that while many members of his congregation are vaccinated, others are not. “We try to walk a narrow path … not inflaming one side versus the other,” he says, declining to go on record because it’s so divisive. “You know, we’re all tired.”
> 
> While rural communities are seeing higher case numbers now, they’ve had fewer cases per capita than urban centres over the entire pandemic, Strauss says. If you are going to have outbreaks, he says, it is better to have them when the majority of people are vaccinated.
> 
> Strauss says his main priority is “getting folks vaccinated and addressing vaccine hesitancy.” He invites people to call him with their questions and concerns. Most who do aren’t misinformed, he says, but concerned that the facts don’t apply to their situation or values. There is also unease with vaccine mandates.
> 
> “I had one gentleman flatly tell me “I am not getting it so long as they are forcing me to get it,” Strauss writes in an email.
> 
> Jacob Shelley says it is not the job of a medical officer of health to have one-on-one talks. People should talk to their doctors. It’s a “highly problematic approach,” he says, when there is so much that has to be done in that role, “like managing outbreaks.” Shelley is also concerned about what Strauss might be saying, “given his track record.”
> 
> Strauss says he spends 20 minutes a day talking to hesitant people, and is “grateful for the opportunity to better understand” where they are coming from. He believes his criticisms of certain restrictions have given him “additional credibility” in some quarters.
> 
> “I frankly can’t think of a better use of my time than having one-on-one conversations with people for whom vaccination could make a tremendous health difference,” he says.
> 
> Strauss does not have a public health degree, which is not required of acting medical officers of health. He says that a master’s degree isn’t the only way to learn. He cites his ICU work and the public health education in his medical training.
> 
> Some of his communication choices are notable. In one dispatch reminding people to stay vigilant against COVID, he did not include the suggestion to mask.
> 
> Strauss says evidence for masks is “just a bit murkier” than that of vaccines. (The Public Health Agency of Canada has called masks essential. Dr. Theresa Tam has urged Canadians to continue to wear masks to prevent airborne transmission of the virus, as evidence shows particles can linger, “much like second-hand smoke.”)
> 
> “I don’t doubt that they are beneficial in some situations,” he writes in an email, adding that he wants to use his “credibility capital” where it matters most.
> 
> “ ‘Vaccines can save your life’ is a very simple story,” he says. “I would rather stomp my foot and insist on vaccines prevent death.”
> 
> In November, the provincial Liberals called for his removal for “undermining vaccination efforts,” when Strauss told local media that parents should consider their own values, along with the risks and benefits, and talk to their doctors when it came to vaccinating children: “I cannot make a blanket recommendation for children that I have never met,” he said.
> 
> Strauss explained that Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization advises the vaccine “may be offered to children,” as opposed to the stronger language it uses for adults, who “should” get the shot.
> 
> “I CAN ‘make a blanket recommendation for children that I have never met’ — get vaccinated for your health, your family’s health and for the health of the public you are part of,” Toronto ER doctor Raghu Venugopal tweeted.
> 
> Strauss clarified on Twitter that he was happy that a safe and effective vaccine was available for children, which “could make a humongous difference in local transmission dynamics.” He included a screenshot of the NACI guidelines.
> 
> This time, it was a different sort of follower who balked.
> “What a disappointment to see. Thought you were going to be a voice of reason and change but I guess they got to you.”
> 
> At the hair salon where she has trimmed Dunnville heads for 20 years, Stefanie Price eats some A&W with her parents, who have businesses in the same building. Her father made the sign. People are relieved to see it, she says, even if it doesn’t always work. The pandemic has made people meaner, she says.
> 
> “In the beginning, everybody was like, ‘Let’s help each other.’ Now it’s like people don’t even talk to each other.”
> 
> Price has always loved the way people in Dunnville rally: If your house burns down, if you’re in need, this community always comes together.
> 
> “I’m hoping this doesn’t wreck that._”


 .... WOW, I thought the bickerings were "city-slickers'" past times. Guessing the bickerings in small-towns Ontario are just as infectious as the virus.

As admirable that Ms. Price would remain "neutral" on the issue with no vaccination discussions as the rule of the house (her hair salon), what are the requirements for customers using her place of business? None?


----------



## damian13ster

Despite number of cases quadrupling at very high pace in South Africa, the amount of patients in hospitals is dropping and average length of stay in hospital is now below 3 days, while it was below 9 days with previous variants.
Need to get as many people infected with Omicron as possible to push Delta out


----------



## sags

_South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa said hospitals are preparing for more admissions as the country entered a fourth COVID-19 wave driven by the Omicron coronavirus strain.

“As the country heads into a fourth wave of COVID-19 infections, we are experiencing a rate of infections that we have not seen since the pandemic started,” Ramaphosa said on Monday._









South Africa prepares hospitals as COVID cases surge


President Cyril Ramaphosa says Omicron seems to be the dominant COVID strain in most of the country’s nine provinces.




www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Beaver101

Surprisingly post #7195 has more spewing hot air particles of "facts", "data" and "stats" if one believes it. Wow, such high standard requirements.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> It is vaccinated that spread it all aaround the world.Just read about first cases in Canada, US, any European country. Christmas party of 120 fully vaccinated people resulted in at least 80-90 infections.
> When it comes to omicron, so far vast majority of cases is vaccinated. There is zero evidence that it was unvaccinated who helped the variant develop or spread.
> Virus mutates with each infection. Vaccinated spread. Therefore vaccinated mutate the virus.
> There is no science behind your claims - as always



Do you still believe that you get influenza from the flu vaccine?

If your objective is to spread more misinformation.....you my friend, deserve an A++.

You seem to have access to "evidence" and "data" that no one has access to. Yet, you haven't found the solution to end the pandemic. You must be a star employee - finds all the problems but provides no solutions.


----------



## damian13ster

Did I ever say you get influenza from flu vaccine?

Please point out where the misinformation is?
Were first cases in majority of Europe and North America all among fully vaccinated people?
Was there 80-90 people infected out of 120 that attended fully vaccinated party?
Do vaccinated people spread the virus?

Please, point out which one of those statements is misinformation? You are slandering with no basis
I have sources, and I have provided sources for each of those claims. You have access to exact same evidence and data. You just choose to ignore it because it doesn't match your opinion.

Answer this: just because there is no clear-cut solution at this point, should we do things that are damaging and proved to be completely ineffective? And in the process lie to people and ignore science?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

No, you didn't say you get influenza from the flu vaccine. I simply assumed you did by the evidences and opinions you provide in general. 

Your statement leads to believe that the vaccinated are more problematic than the unvaccinated. 

Sure, vaccinated people can spread the virus - but clearly not at the same rate as the unvaccinated.

To answer your last question......the solution is to leave this area to the experts to figure out. If you don't believe them, then that's your prerogative. 

The current option is to vaccinate which is the quickest solution known. The goal is to contain the virus enough to turn the pandemic into an endemic......prevent people from dying and save as many lives as possible. 

Side effects are nothing new. Its unfortunate but its the only way more people can survive.


----------



## damian13ster

Don't assume. Seems like you aren't particularly good at it. Focus on evidence and data

Why is it clear that it is not at the same rate as unvaccinated?
Clearly the data from 86 countries show that the spread is at exactly same rate regardless of vaccination rate?
Sounds like you are providing your opinion and ignoring data simply because it doesn't support it.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

I can post as many articles as you’d like to support my opinions. 

Happy reading. 









Vaccinated people are less likely to spread Covid, new research finds


British scientists examined how the Pfizer-BioNTech and the AstraZeneca vaccines affected the spread of the virus if a person had a breakthrough infection.




www.nbcnews.com













Monitoring Incidence of COVID-19 Cases...


After the COVID-19 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant reached predominance, fully vaccinated people had less risk of infection, hospitalization, and death.




www.cdc.gov


----------



## zinfit

Mortgage u/w said:


> I can post as many articles as you’d like to support my opinions.
> 
> Happy reading.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vaccinated people are less likely to spread Covid, new research finds
> 
> 
> British scientists examined how the Pfizer-BioNTech and the AstraZeneca vaccines affected the spread of the virus if a person had a breakthrough infection.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Monitoring Incidence of COVID-19 Cases...
> 
> 
> After the COVID-19 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant reached predominance, fully vaccinated people had less risk of infection, hospitalization, and death.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov


Again 91% of the hospitalizations and deaths were the unvaccinated. 65% reduction in transmission for people with full vaccination with Phizer .


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> I can post as many articles as you’d like to support my opinions.
> 
> Happy reading.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vaccinated people are less likely to spread Covid, new research finds
> 
> 
> British scientists examined how the Pfizer-BioNTech and the AstraZeneca vaccines affected the spread of the virus if a person had a breakthrough infection.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Monitoring Incidence of COVID-19 Cases...
> 
> 
> After the COVID-19 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant reached predominance, fully vaccinated people had less risk of infection, hospitalization, and death.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov


From the article you posted:
*Protection against transmission wanes*
The new study showed that protection against transmission seemed to wane over time, however. After three months, people who had breakthrough infections after being vaccinated with AstraZeneca were just as likely to spread the delta variant as the unvaccinated. While protection against transmission decreased in people who had received the Pfizer vaccine, there was still a benefit when compared with people who were unvaccinated.

So zero protection after 3 months with AZ, they didn't provide the number from Pfizer, other than that it dropped


You can post as many articles as you want.
The numbers don't lie though - there is slight positive correlation between vaccination rate and case numbers.

As per a study that was posted here multiple times, after 4 months, vaccines provide about 20% of protection from infection. It is a number higher than 0, therefore one would expect number of cases to be lower as well. Of course that was before Omicron. We don't know where in the 0-20% spectrum the protection lies.
Why the numbers are not lower? - because of lies told to the people.
Vaccines are the way out of the pandemic........
They protect not only yourself but also those around you.......

Hearing that, one adjusts their behavior, promoting higher spread. Therefore there is actually slightly positive correlation between vaccination rate and case numbers in the study that looks at 86 countries and over 2000 counties.

So yes, vaccines provide protection from infection of somewhere between 0-20%; however, lies told to the people result in higher spread with higher vaccination rate, due to adjustment to behavior of vaccinated people that were/are being lied to


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> ...
> 
> Answer this: just because there is no clear-cut solution at this point, should we do things that are damaging and proved to be completely ineffective? And in the process lie to people and ignore science?


 ... this part sums up the mindset of an anti-vaxxer, their ingenius so-called supporters (like the poster) plus the vaccine-regretters. 

So what "solution" (never mind about a "clear cut one if there is such a thing) do you propose (or wish to wait for) that "is not" (or will not) be damaging and yet proven effective (never mind the requirement to be "completely")? Your answer here since no one else knows the answer.

According to your usual manipulating question to mortgage u/w above, your conclusion is that the vaccine(s) were developed without the science like those behind a meth lab, and forced on the sheep people? And that the sheep people were "lied to on its safety" via the emergency approval of a Mr. Dump? Is this not correct? 

You seriously need to either have your head re-examined or your mouth-washed if you're not going to live off your own island.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> From the article you posted:
> *Protection against transmission wanes*
> The new study showed that protection against transmission seemed to wane over time, however. After three months, people who had breakthrough infections after being vaccinated with AstraZeneca were just as likely to spread the delta variant as the unvaccinated. While protection against transmission decreased in people who had received the Pfizer vaccine, there was still a benefit when compared with people who were unvaccinated.
> 
> So zero protection after 3 months with AZ, they didn't provide the number from Pfizer, other than that it dropped
> 
> 
> You can post as many articles as you want.
> The numbers don't lie though - there is slight positive correlation between vaccination rate and case numbers.
> 
> As per a study that was posted here multiple times, after 4 months, vaccines provide about 20% of protection from infection. It is a number higher than 0, therefore one would expect number of cases to be lower as well. Of course that was before Omicron. We don't know where in the 0-20% spectrum the protection lies.
> Why the numbers are not lower? - because of lies told to the people.
> Vaccines are the way out of the pandemic........
> They protect not only yourself but also those around you.......
> 
> Hearing that, one adjusts their behavior, promoting higher spread. Therefore there is actually slightly positive correlation between vaccination rate and case numbers in the study that looks at 86 countries and over 2000 counties.
> 
> So yes, vaccines provide protection from infection of somewhere between 0-20%; however, lies told to the people result in higher spread with higher vaccination rate, due to adjustment to behavior of vaccinated people that were/are being lied to


You should continue reading and not stop where you see fit:

_"Since antibody levels also tend to decrease over time after vaccination, a reduction in protection against transmission is to be expected, Richterman said.

“We know that the amount of antibodies circulating in the blood decreases over time after vaccination, *even though the immune memory remains durably robust and is still able to prevent infections, particularly severe infection*,” he said. “These circulating antibodies that are immediately available probably play some role in preventing transmission if infected, so I don’t think it’s surprising to see some reduced protection against transmission over time.”
Richterman and Butler-Wu agreed that while community transmission remains high, masks and testing remain important."_

Just stop with your "lies to people" and "believe in science". Its ridiculously exhausting to read.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario to release updated COVID-19 case modelling today



> _Last Updated Tuesday, December 7, 2021 5:46AM EST
> 
> Ontario’s science advisory table will release updated COVID-19 projections today amid increasing concerns about a new variant of concern that many fear will reduce the efficacy of existing vaccines.
> The new modelling figures are expected to be released at around 11 a.m., just a few hours ahead of a 1:30 p.m. briefing with Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore.
> 
> The figures come amid a worsening fourth wave of the pandemic which has already seen Ontario’s rolling seven-day average of new infections jump from 508 to 940 over the course of a month.
> 
> Hospitalizations are also slowly starting to rise with the number of COVID-19 patients being treated in intensive care now standing at 168.
> 
> That is a far cry from the peak of the third wave of the pandemic in April when more than 900 people were being treated for COVID-19 in the ICU at one time but the science table has suggested that *the healthcare system won’t have the same capacity this time around due to worker burnout, staffing shortages and a surgical backlog that will make it difficult to suspend elective care.*
> 
> “We’re having difficulty staffing the existing beds and the patients who are in ICUs at present,” Dr. Kali Barrett, who sits on the science table, told CP24 last week. “And so the concern is that if we were to see another huge surge like we saw during the third wave, it would be a lot more difficult. We wouldn't have the same resources in terms of healthcare workers who would be available to look after those patients.”
> 
> Cases have been on the rise in Ontario for more than a month now but unlike in previous waves the hot spots have been largely located outside of the Greater Toronto Area so far.
> 
> In fact as of Monday, the Algoma Public Health Unit in Sault Ste. Marie had a weekly incidence rate that was more than eight times higher than Toronto’s on a per capita basis.
> 
> *Cases are also surging in Kingston, where public health officials have tightened the limit for private indoor gatherings to just 10 people and are now recommending that residents once again avoid social gatherings altogether.*
> 
> “Due in part to the high vaccinations rates in our community, we have managed to keep schools and workplaces open; however, now we must prioritize measures to stabilize cases in the region,” Dr. Piotr Oglaza, the medical officer of health for the region, said in a statement issued on Monday.
> 
> The last time that the science table released modelling it warned that daily case counts would range between just under 500 and 1,000 by December, *suggesting that we are tracking closer to the worst case scenario.
> 
> The science table also said that ICU admissions would likely total around 200 by the end of December.
> 
> That modelling, however, was released prior to the detection of the Omicron variant in South Africa.* So far only 13 cases involving the Omicron variant have been detected in Ontario but that number is expected to rise. _


 ... here we (Ontario) go again. 

Thank Lord, the majority of the population are made of sheep-people who are doing the right thing/their part in fighting the enemy, the virus.

Meanwhile, the moronic wolves can keep circling around the sheep population trying to figure out what other methods they can assist the virus with in thinning down the herd.


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> You should continue reading and not stop where you see fit:
> 
> ...
> 
> *Just stop with your "lies to people" and "believe in science". Its ridiculously exhausting to read.*


 .. you see that's deployment of one of Hitler's tactics - keep repeating the same thing over and over and over and over ... to ad nauseum ... thinking (in his little beady head) the sheep people will believe him.


----------



## Beaver101

*Warning:* Reading below is Not for anti-vaxxers/deniers, their supporters and vax-regretters.

'This is beyond my expectations,' Champagne says of Canadian biomanufacturer rebound



> _Published Tuesday, December 7, 2021 7:38AM EST
> OTTAWA - While Canada still has a way to go to rebuild its biomanufacturing sector, Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne says it has rebounded beyond his initial expectations in the last several months.
> 
> At the outset of the pandemic, Canada's lack of biomanufacturing capability came into sharp focus, and the incapacity to produce COVID-19 vaccines domestically caused some major initial stumbles in the country's early vaccine rollout.
> 
> Champagne says his vision was to rebuild the sector based on the different families of vaccines, as well as improve the capacity for contract manufacturers in Canada.
> 
> Canada's $173 million investment in Medicago's plant-based vaccine is likely to come to fruition before the end of the year, as the company announces clinical results that shows 88 per cent efficacy against the Gamma variant and more than 75 per cent efficacy against the Delta variant._
> 
> *Along with Medicago, several drug companies have announced plans to produce their vaccine products in Canada, including Moderna, Sanofi, and Novavax, while Merck Canada announced yesterday it plans to produce it's COVID-19 antiviral treatment in Ontario.*


 ... this is good, it not great news.


----------



## damian13ster

I have provided actual numbers, with actual data.
This is just a narrative.
The only actual numbers from the article you provided are:
64% for Pfizer
36% for AZ

0 for AZ after 3 months?
< 64% than Pfizer after unspecified time period.

We can discuss actual numbers, not going to discuss commentaries with you because that's pointless

How do you explain the fact that there is positive correlation of amount of cases with vaccination rate? I have provided numbers from scientific research that show such correlation exists

Well, not my fault that 'believing in science' is so exhausting. Some people just refuse to put the blinders on and listen to politicians - our bad


----------



## Mortgage u/w

What makes your research so much more credible?

Your main problem is your source of information and interpretation of data & science. Nothing is absolute.


----------



## damian13ster

It isn't my research. Those are published scientific papers. Not media articles. There is a difference between the two.
And published scientific papers show that there is a slight positive correlation between vaccination rates and number of cases. Positive correlation means that places with higher vaccination rates also have higher case numbers. Not an interpretation either - definition


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> It isn't my research. Those are published scientific papers. Not media articles. There is a difference between the two.
> And published scientific papers show that there is a slight positive correlation between vaccination rates and number of cases. Positive correlation means that places with higher vaccination rates also have higher case numbers. Not an interpretation either - definition


So your conclusion by "definition" is that vaccines are useless, no one should be listening to politicians and we should all go about our daily lives?

I haven't come across any scientific papers myself so I will have a hard time believing a scientific paper posted on google.

Point is, whatever you are reading is subject to interpretation unless the data shows an absolute result.


----------



## damian13ster

No. My conclusion isn't that vaccines are useless.

Again, there are two metrics to look at:

hospitalization/death prevention
infection prevention

Vaccines appear to be very good at first one and relatively useless at second one.
I have personally gotten vaccinated for the hospitalization/death prevention. Yet I am not going to lie and say that me getting vaccinated somehow protects others or makes it less likely that I will infect others (my 2nd dose was 5 months ago).

Statements:

vaccines are good at preventing hospitalization
vaccines are bad at preventing infections
are both true. Therefore saying vaccine is 'useless' without specifying which metric you are referring to is too general.
It is useless at preventing spread. It is very effective at preventing hospitalization.

Well, if you don't believe published scientific papers that are on webpage, then buy a printed copy of the journal it was published in. Form of delivery doesn't make the content less valid but whatever rocks your boat.
As long as lies stop that vaccination prevents spread


----------



## sags

If it is on the internet it must be true.

I will listen to the real experts and they all appear to agree that masks and vaccines are effective protection.

When someone proposes that people who are vaccinated are more prone to infection.......it speaks for itself.


----------



## damian13ster

Look at the authors of the published scientific studies. 
What makes them 'not a real expert'?

Not one person is proposing that vaccinated people are more prone to infection. At least I didn't see any scientific research on that. Care to share if you got one?


----------



## sags

Yea.......you have repeatedly and again in post # 7212.


----------



## damian13ster

You are misunderstanding the post.

Yes, cases rise with higher vaccination rate, but it isn't because vaccinations cause higher infection rates......
Lies told to vaccinated people cause that.
A lot of people modified their behavior based on the fact that they are vaccinated because they have been lied and told that them being vaccinated protects from spread. So adjustment in behavior due to the lies is responsible for increase in spread, not vaccines themselves.
Vaccines are simply ineffective in decreasing infection so they don't make-up for the behavioral change caused by the lying


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> If it is on the internet it must be true.
> 
> I will listen to the real experts...


So, the real experts publish scientific papers you agree with but every other scientist is a fraud? 😂😂😂😂


----------



## sags

I judge the experts by their education, knowledge, and experience. How do you judge them ?


----------



## damian13ster

You got some serious standards because you are ignoring and disputing published scientific paper by Harvard professor 

If a drunk from a street corner would write in graffiti something you agree with you would take it for granted rather than have your views challenged by Harvard doctorate in a published scientific paper


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> You got some serious standards because you are ignoring and disputing published scientific paper by Harvard professor
> 
> If a drunk from a street corner would write in graffiti something you agree with you would take it for granted rather than have your views challenged by Harvard doctorate in a published scientific paper


you would have a difficult time finding any Harvard or MIT science professor who would agree with views on vaccines and covid.


----------



## damian13ster

Literally the research paper I have posted showing slightly positive correlation between vaccination rate and number of cases is written by Harvard professor......


And here is an article (not a published scientific paper so take it with a grain of salt):








Omicron symptoms ‘totally different’ from Delta COVID-19 variant: South African doctor - National | Globalnews.ca


The South African doctor who identified the Omicron variant of COVID-19 says its symptoms seem milder than previous variants of the disease.




globalnews.ca





If there is confirmation in couple of weeks we need to spread this things as fast as possible. Might finally be a variant that ends this


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> No. My conclusion isn't that vaccines are useless.
> 
> Again, there are two metrics to look at:
> 
> hospitalization/death prevention
> infection prevention
> 
> Vaccines appear to be very good at first one and relatively useless at second one.
> I have personally gotten vaccinated for the hospitalization/death prevention. Yet I am not going to lie and say that me getting vaccinated somehow protects others or makes it less likely that I will infect others (my 2nd dose was 5 months ago).
> 
> Statements:
> 
> vaccines are good at preventing hospitalization
> vaccines are bad at preventing infections
> are both true. Therefore saying vaccine is 'useless' without specifying which metric you are referring to is too general.
> It is useless at preventing spread. It is very effective at preventing hospitalization.
> 
> Well, if you don't believe published scientific papers that are on webpage, then buy a printed copy of the journal it was published in. Form of delivery doesn't make the content less valid but whatever rocks your boat.
> As long as lies stop that vaccination prevents spread



So I'm confused as to what your argument is in regards to vaccines. 

You state that you are vaccinated and chose to in order to prevent hospitalization. But you are against it (or regret doing so?) because you can still spread the virus? Not sure I understand your position or what you are trying to convince others of.

I can agree with you that a vaccinated individual can still spread the virus. I can even go as far as agreeing with you that a vaccinated individual could potential spread more of it because they believe they are immune and take less precautions.

However, containing the spread is only one part of the solution. A pandemic is defined by an infectious virus that has spread over a large area and is difficult to be contained. The goal is an endemic, which the virus still spreads but is more stable - meaning we can treat it efficiently and prevent deaths.

You can agree that the number of infected and deaths have diminished. This is being achieved by having raised awareness, mandated mask, sanitizer and vaccinations. All this together will help contain the virus to a manageable level and eventually get us out of a pandemic state.

So, lies or no lies, this is what it is at a macro level.


----------



## damian13ster

You can overall be positive or a product or development, yet don't appreciate lies about it.
And I am strongly against mandates.
The problem is that argument liars use is 'that you are protecting others by stopping the spread'.

So:

positive and happy vaccines got developed
got vaccinated because thought it is beneficial for me. Got both doses
not getting a booster because of terrible side effects after second dose
still encourage others to get it because side effects are rare
hate lies about the product
hate mandates and lack of autonomy in making personal medical choices
hate that lies are used to excuse violation of the Charter

The views don't contradict each other at any point
Not wanting lies to be spread and being aware of both advantages or disadvantages isn't being anti-vaccine.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

I wouldn't go as far as stating that we were lied to. You need to understand and be optimistic of the overall benefit of mass vaccinations. You can't look at this as if a cure was found or is being sought. That's not the intent of a vaccine.

Side effects exist and can be scary. But a preventable death is scarier.


----------



## damian13ster

What does being optimistic on the benefits have to do with telling the truth?
You can appreciate benefits without having blinders on
Choosing a team and then grabbing pompoms to blindly cheer for whatever they are doing is not productive and not a way democracy should work.
We are being lied to. There are literally examples every single day and it is completely inexcusable.
Especially since the lies are then used as an excuse to take away bodily autonomy.


----------



## bgc_fan

I'd say it doesn't help when people deliberately spread misinformation. Tests of themselves are just a tool and not going to really help that much. 








If your argument is that you want to test more people to catch more positive people, well, that's not really true since it depends on the positivity rate. Israel does a lot of testing, but is obviously not finding a lot of positives. US tests about 20% more than us, but have 400% more new cases. Sure we can test everyone on a regular basis, but so what? Unless you have a plan to isolate them if they test positive, that's not going to change the situation.


----------



## damian13ster

Well yeah. That's precisely the idea. To isolate if testing positive.
Agreed, it is completely useless if one reacts to a positive by heading to work/school/kindergarten


----------



## sags

I have faith in our leaders, who in cooperation with the experts, will make the decisions necessary to prevent the worst outcomes.

Ride on Mr. Trudeau,...ride on.


----------



## damian13ster

Blind faith


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> What does being optimistic on the benefits have to do with telling the truth?
> You can appreciate benefits without having blinders on
> Choosing a team and then grabbing pompoms to blindly cheer for whatever they are doing is not productive and not a way democracy should work.
> We are being lied to. There are literally examples every single day and it is completely inexcusable.
> Especially since the lies are then used as an excuse to take away bodily autonomy.


I really don’t understand what your seeking. Nor what you are angry about.

You’re vaccinated because you believe that will prevent you from being hospitalized. You’re angry cause someone lied to you about what exactly??


----------



## damian13ster

Not just to me. Lied to Canadian citizens.
Lied that vaccinations will end the pandemic.
Lied that vaccinations stop the spread
Lied that vaccinations protect others, and not just yourself.

Then used those lies as an excuse to violate Charter and deprive people of their human rights, deprived their of control over own medical choices, deprived them of their livelihood.

You do realize that just because you aren't personally affected, it doesn't mean breaking of the Charter and human rights abuse is ok? We have to look out for each others' rights, and see beyond end of our own noses.

Unfortunately Canadians turned out to be extremely selfish segregationists, and that was caused by lies and divisions sowed by the government. That's what I am angry about.

Just look beyond the effect that lies have on you personally. Look at entire community, countries. Look what it did to the culture, look what it did to level of debates, look at the hate and division the lies caused.

I just want an actual debate, respect, empathy, and truth to be basis of human interaction, not lies and hate. Unfortunately elected officials want exact opposite


----------



## Mortgage u/w

I sense you are angry. 

Look, there’s a pandemic going on worldwide. That’s not a lie. 

You have the right to choose. No one will say the contrary. But you will need to live with the consequences of your choice. That’s also not a lie.

If you don’t agree with the consequences, you need to live somewhere that caters to your beliefs.

Whether you like it or not, our current society has elected officials and we allow them to make decisions for us. You’re allowed to disagree with them. But you can’t get angry.

For argument’s sake, let’s say these lies are admitted to. Then what? What’s your objective? What’s the end result you hope for?


----------



## damian13ster

Saying you have a right to choose in situation where you would lose your job, means to live, social support, social life, and even ability to leave the country to go to place that doesn't abuse human rights is just plain wrong.
Guess Harvey Weinstein, Epstein, they are all clean as whistle - victims had right to choose. Institutional racism never existed - victims had right to choose or could leave if they didn't want human rights violated. Nothin wrong with holocaust - Jews had time to leave and were just facing consequences of their actions.
Disregarding coercion by the state or a power structure is a SICK logic

Objective? Isn't debate based on science, truth, and facts a worthy objective in itself? I truly do not understand what values Canadians hold if honesty, empathy, respect, facts, and human rights aren't among them.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

That’s your interpretation cause you have a different point of view. It seems most people agree with what’s is going on so no rights are being taken away. In fact, most will feel their rights are being protected by ensuring everyone else is on the same page.

I get what you’re saying but you need to look beyond that and focus on getting out of this pandemic. Right now, the measures that are being put forth are the only known solutions.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> Right now, the measures that are being put forth are the only known solutions.


No, they're the only solutions offered by the government.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> No, they're the only solutions offered by the government.


Excellent. I was hoping someone would chime in.

So please enlighten us on what other solutions are possible?


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> That’s your interpretation cause you have a different point of view. It seems most people agree with what’s is going on so no rights are being taken away. In fact, most will feel their rights are being protected by ensuring everyone else is on the same page.
> 
> I get what you’re saying but you need to look beyond that and focus on getting out of this pandemic. Right now, the measures that are being put forth are the only known solutions.


This is your literal quote:

"You have the right to choose. No one will say the contrary. But you will need to live with the consequences of your choice. That’s also not a lie. " - coercion by someone with power far higher than yours is not right to choose - entire legal system would crumble if this was actually the case


"If you don’t agree with the consequences, you need to live somewhere that caters to your beliefs " - you literally can't. You are not legally allowed to leave unless you comply 

"Whether you like it or not, our current society has elected officials and we allow them to make decisions for us. You’re allowed to disagree with them. But you can’t get angry. " - elected officials don't get to break human rights. Your statement excuses Hitler, Putin, bunch of other dictators along the way, same as it excuses Trudeau


It isn't an interpretation. Those are exact quotes.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> That’s your interpretation cause you have a different point of view. It seems most people agree with what’s is going on so no rights are being taken away. In fact, most will feel their rights are being protected by ensuring everyone else is on the same page.
> 
> I get what you’re saying but you need to look beyond that and focus on getting out of this pandemic. Right now, the measures that are being put forth are the only known solutions.


They aren't solutions. They haven't solved anything. All the lies did is divide the country and as one can see by positive correlation of cases with vaccination rate, they also increased the spread.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> This is your literal quote:
> 
> "You have the right to choose. No one will say the contrary. But you will need to live with the consequences of your choice. That’s also not a lie. " - coercion by someone with power far higher than yours is not right to choose - entire legal system would crumble if this was actually the case
> 
> 
> "If you don’t agree with the consequences, you need to live somewhere that caters to your beliefs " - you literally can't. You are not legally allowed to leave unless you comply
> 
> "Whether you like it or not, our current society has elected officials and we allow them to make decisions for us. You’re allowed to disagree with them. But you can’t get angry. " - elected officials don't get to break human rights. Your statement excuses Hitler, Putin, bunch of other dictators along the way, same as it excuses Trudeau
> 
> 
> It isn't an interpretation. Those are exact quotes.


Right.
Can't help notice how you interpreted my quotes.


----------



## damian13ster

First quote - criminal law interpreted this and determined coercion is illegal, not me
Second quote - also not me. Government of Canada made it illegal to leave until you comply
Third quote - yeah, that was me, sorry for saying elected officials don't get to lie to break human rights, my bad. Guess don't understand Canadian values


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> They aren't solutions. They haven't solved anything. All the lies did is divide the country and as one can see by positive correlation of cases with vaccination rate, they also increased the spread.


So as I have asked in post #7238, what IS the solution?


----------



## damian13ster

To what? The pandemic, stopping authoritarianism, human right abuse, stopping division?

I believe 'don't lie' is a huge step in solving all of those issues.

Pandemic: behavior of vaccinated would likely be different if they weren't lied to about not spreading - therefore there wouldn't be higher amount of cases with higher vaccination rates
Authoritarianism: honesty helps debate; debate helps democracy
Human right abuse: Charter is being broken because of arguments in Section 1, which are based on a lie that vaccination protects others from COVID
Stopping division: You get less pushback and better debate if truth and facts are discussed

Having government officials not lie aids in solving all of those issues


----------



## Mortgage u/w

to the pandemic please.....


----------



## damian13ster

It is up there. You have higher cases with higher vaccinations purely because people were being lied to about effect of vaccines. Not lying to them would help in slowing the spread.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> It is up there. You have higher cases with higher vaccinations purely because people were being lied to about effect of vaccines. Not lying to them would help in slowing the spread.


Thats not a solution to the pandemic. Its just an opinion to justify your other views.

I ask again.....what is the solution to ending the pandemic??


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> Excellent. I was hoping someone would chime in.
> 
> So please enlighten us on what other solutions are possible?


 ... whining and trolling on this forum to spread misinformation whilst under the pretense of supporting the "rights of the anti-vaxxers". As if only anti-vaxxers, their deniers/enablers/supporters and vaccine-regretters have rights on this planet.


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> Thats not a solution to the pandemic. Its just an opinion to justify your other views.
> 
> I ask again.....what is the solution to ending the pandemic??


 ... I would love to hear the loud-mouthed Genius' response of "a solution" .


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Saying you have a right to choose in situation where you would lose your job, means to live, social support, social life, and even ability to leave the country to go to place that doesn't abuse human rights is just plain wrong.
> Guess Harvey Weinstein, Epstein, they are all clean as whistle - victims had right to choose. Institutional racism never existed - victims had right to choose or could leave if they didn't want human rights violated. Nothin wrong with holocaust - Jews had time to leave and were just facing consequences of their actions.
> Disregarding coercion by the state or a power structure is a SICK logic
> 
> Objective? Isn't debate based on science, truth, and facts a worthy objective in itself? I truly do not understand what values Canadians hold if honesty, empathy, respect, facts, and human rights aren't among them.


 ... how noble (aka FARCIAL) of you.


----------



## KaeJS

Mortgage u/w said:


> Thats not a solution to the pandemic. Its just an opinion to justify your other views.
> 
> I ask again.....what is the solution to ending the pandemic??


You just declare it over.
Easy.


----------



## KaeJS

*BIONTECH: HAVE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER FOURTH SHOT IS NEEDED

^ Haha... The shows goes on...

Remember when it was just "2 weeks to flatten the curve"?


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> Thats not a solution to the pandemic. Its just an opinion to justify your other views.
> 
> I ask again.....what is the solution to ending the pandemic??


Of course it helps in a solution - as if you don't lie to people then vaccination rates won't change behavior to more detrimental one. It isn't an opinion. Scientific research showed that higher vaccination rates result in higher case numbers. And during Delta variant too


Right now it looks like the solution is to get Omicron over here as quickly as possible and have it push out delta.
Itchy throat and 1 day of muscle soreness aren't bad, and research from South Africa shows that natural immunity is far superior to vaccine immunity for new variants (study was posted here).

So I think this is the endgame - the variant to end it all.


----------



## Money172375

damian13ster said:


> Of course it helps in a solution - as if you don't lie to people then vaccination rates won't change behavior to more detrimental one. It isn't an opinion. Scientific research showed that higher vaccination rates result in higher case numbers. And during Delta variant too
> 
> 
> Right now it looks like the solution is to get Omicron over here as quickly as possible and have it push out delta.
> Itchy throat and 1 day of muscle soreness aren't bad, and research from South Africa shows that natural immunity is far superior to vaccine immunity for new variants (study was posted here).
> 
> So I think this is the endgame - the variant to end it all.


Don’t worry, The big O is already here. you’ll have your wish by the New Year.


----------



## damian13ster

Perfect. Now if the lies stop we can actually end it in couple of months.
Just need much more frequent genome sequencing to know the prevalence of delta and omicron.

Government still doing everything they possibly can to extend the pandemic (not by design, just stupidity)


----------



## Mortgage u/w

The fact that the current variant has mutated to a less severe infection (and the hope that future variants continue to diminish in potency) is a result of mass vaccination and sanitary measures. The virus is running out of hosts to bread off.

The end game is to declare the pandemic over - but its not as simple as just declaring it over and "stopping all the lies" as you state.

If no sanitary measures or vaccinations were forced upon us, the only hope to end the pandemic would have been natural immunity. The problem with that solution is that lots of lives would have been sacrificed. Would you have sacrificed your life in order to save everyone else? What about your loved ones?


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> Excellent. I was hoping someone would chime in.
> 
> So please enlighten us on what other solutions are possible?


There is no real solution to a virus. Lockdowns and vaccines that fail after a few months are not solutions either.

But there are many different ways to mitigate the damage. Isolate the high risk people and let natural immunity spread among the low risk population. Study preventative medicines other than vaccines. Those are just 2 examples that have been used for decades that the government has no interest in pursuing.

"2 weeks to slow the curve" and "we need to reach herd immunity" were both lies.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> *The fact that the current variant has mutated to a less severe infection (and the hope that future variants continue to diminish in potency) is a result of mass vaccination and sanitary measures. The virus is running out of hosts to bread off.*
> 
> The end game is to declare the pandemic over - but its not as simple as just declaring it over and "stopping all the lies" as you state.
> 
> If no sanitary measures or vaccinations were forced upon us, the only hope to end the pandemic would have been natural immunity. The problem with that solution is that lots of lives would have been sacrificed. Would you have sacrificed your life in order to save everyone else? What about your loved ones?


Now that is a load of baloney. Do you have any science behind the ridiculous claim?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> Now that is a load of baloney. Do you have any science behind the ridiculous claim?


Here's a baloney excerpt from the baloney article YOU quoted!! 

_“It’s totally different from the Delta,” Dr. Angelique Coetzee told Global News on Tuesday. She said that these patients aren’t displaying the same loss of taste and smell, need for supplemental oxygen or elevated pulse rate that doctors noted with Delta patients.
“It’s very much like a cold or flu type of symptoms,” she said, adding that patients are reporting headaches and body aches, and a slight sore throat.
“They don’t have a severe cough and they don’t have a running or blocked nose as you would see with an upper respiratory tract infection,” she said._


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> Here's a baloney excerpt from the baloney article YOU quoted!!
> 
> _“It’s totally different from the Delta,” Dr. Angelique Coetzee told Global News on Tuesday. She said that these patients aren’t displaying the same loss of taste and smell, need for supplemental oxygen or elevated pulse rate that doctors noted with Delta patients.
> “It’s very much like a cold or flu type of symptoms,” she said, adding that patients are reporting headaches and body aches, and a slight sore throat.
> “They don’t have a severe cough and they don’t have a running or blocked nose as you would see with an upper respiratory tract infection,” she said._


I am not disputing the fact that symptoms are similar to a cold.
I have already stated that, based on exact same quote that itchy throat and sore muscles are precisely what we want and why Omicron if it spreads fast and infects as many people as possible can end the pandemic.

I bolded the part that is pure BS with no science behind it. I will copy and past the quote here:

"The fact that the current variant has mutated to a less severe infection (and the hope that future variants continue to diminish in potency)* is a result of mass vaccination and sanitary measures. The virus is running out of hosts to bread off. "*

Running out of hosts while there is positive correlation between vaccination and amount of cases.....


----------



## Money172375

Was just watching an update from the WHO. Doctor on there implored governments to take action now, not in January. She added that she didn’t mean lockdowns, but other measures, and specifically speeding up vaccine rollout.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> *BIONTECH: HAVE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER FOURTH SHOT IS NEEDED
> 
> ^ Haha... The shows goes on...
> 
> Remember when it was just "2 weeks to flatten the curve"?


 ... not for you to be concerned with. Remember Covid vaccines are not applicable to you.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> I am not disputing the fact that symptoms are similar to a cold.
> I have already stated that, based on exact same quote that itchy throat and sore muscles are precisely what we want and why Omicron if it spreads fast and infects as many people as possible can end the pandemic.
> 
> I bolded the part that is pure BS with no science behind it. I will copy and past the quote here:
> 
> "The fact that the current variant has mutated to a less severe infection (and the hope that future variants continue to diminish in potency)* is a result of mass vaccination and sanitary measures. The virus is running out of hosts to bread off. "*
> 
> Running out of hosts while there is positive correlation between vaccination and amount of cases.....


 ... mortgage u/w's opinion is not without merit based on your continuous spewings that "vaccinated people also spread the virus", no? Which means your subsequent spewing of "running out of hosts while there is positive correlation between vaccination and amount of cases" is just plain spewing based on your hokey-pokeyed science.

Of course, your theory of the Omicron ending the pandemic by "muscling out the other viruses" ... is just a wish. As if the virus(es) is gonna to listen to the genius in you. Even the medical experts virologists, epidemiologists, medical scientists, vaccine producers, etc. haven't even got this figured out but you have. Amazing.


----------



## sags

Past infections don't provide immunity against re-infection, especially by a different variant.

Let's put that bit of herd immunity BS in the trash can of reality.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Of course it helps in a solution - as if you don't lie to people then vaccination rates won't change behavior to more detrimental one. It isn't an opinion. Scientific research showed that higher vaccination rates result in higher case numbers. And during Delta variant too
> 
> 
> *Right now it looks like the solution is to get Omicron over here as quickly as possible and have it push out delta.
> Itchy throat and 1 day of muscle soreness aren't bad, and research from South Africa shows that natural immunity is far superior to vaccine immunity for new variants (study was posted here).
> 
> So I think this is the endgame - the variant to end it all.*


 ... LMAO. 

We got a scientific GENIUS here on this forum who knows more and better than all the combined virologists, epidemiologists, medical scientists/experts, vaccine producers, etc. in this world!

Btw, what crystal-ball do you use at work?


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... not for you to be concerned with. Remember Covid vaccines are not applicable to you.


How many booster shots are you willing to take? 4, 6, 10? Twice a year for the rest of your life? 4 times a year for the rest of your life?


----------



## kcowan2000

sags said:


> I have faith in our leaders, who in cooperation with the experts, will make the decisions necessary to prevent the worst outcomes


RU talking about Tam?!


----------



## sags

Dr. Tam would be one of the many experts the government is asking for advice.

Canada is doing extremely well during the pandemic, compared to most other countries.

If you think not........look at Europe, or Asia, or Latin America, or Africa and see how it is there.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> How many booster shots are you willing to take? 4, 6, 10? Twice a year for the rest of your life? 4 times a year for the rest of your life?


How many times are you willing to take the influenza vaccine?


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> How many times are you willing to take the influenza vaccine?


I've taken it zero times so far. So, I guess my answer is "none".

Now it's your turn. How many times are you willing to take a Covid shot?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> I am not disputing the fact that symptoms are similar to a cold.
> I have already stated that, based on exact same quote that itchy throat and sore muscles are precisely what we want and why Omicron if it spreads fast and infects as many people as possible can end the pandemic.
> 
> I bolded the part that is pure BS with no science behind it. I will copy and past the quote here:
> 
> "The fact that the current variant has mutated to a less severe infection (and the hope that future variants continue to diminish in potency)* is a result of mass vaccination and sanitary measures. The virus is running out of hosts to bread off. "*
> 
> Running out of hosts while there is positive correlation between vaccination and amount of cases.....


I am just validating excerpts in the article you have repeatedly referred to. If the current variant is not as severe, the obvious conclusion is its losing its potency. Logically, when a virus looses potency, it means there is an interruption of some sort. If what the article is stating is true, we can assume that its the vaccine and sanitary measures causing this. 

Don't know how you interpret that given your scientific research in the middle of conspiracy theories you've uncovered.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> I've taken it zero times so far. So, I guess my answer is "none".
> 
> Now it's your turn. How many times are you willing to take a Covid shot?


Great. You're one in 8 billion. Does that mean the influenza shot should also be scrutinized? Cause you know some people take it on any annual basis - crazy as that sounds, huh.

I'm willing to take the Covid shot on an annual basis too as long as the virus is not contained and we remain in a pandemic state. Once we are no longer in a pandemic state, I would not feel the need to take it - just like I don't feel the need to take the flu vaccine.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> I am just validating excerpts in the article you have repeatedly referred to. If the current variant is not as severe, the obvious conclusion is its losing its potency. Logically, when a virus looses potency, it means there is an interruption of some sort. If what the article is stating is true, we can assume that its the vaccine and sanitary measures causing this.
> 
> Don't know how you interpret that given your scientific research in the middle of conspiracy theories you've uncovered.


No you are not. You are making up claims. Article doesn't claim that it is thanks to vaccination that this mutation proved less potent. You completely made that up.

"When a virus looses potency, it means there is an interruption of some sort" - no, it doesn't. It simply means viruses mutate. And by nature the highest chance of virus survival is if it has high infection rate and small potency. It isn't some groundbreaking knowledge.

I didn't uncover any conspiracy theories - government lies to the people is not a conspiracy theory at all.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> No you are not. You are making up claims. Article doesn't claim that it is thanks to vaccination that this mutation proved less potent. You completely made that up.
> 
> "When a virus looses potency, it means there is an interruption of some sort" - no, it doesn't. It simply means viruses mutate. And by nature the highest chance of virus survival is if it has high infection rate and small potency. It isn't some groundbreaking knowledge.
> 
> I didn't uncover any conspiracy theories - government lies to the people is not a conspiracy theory at all.


LMAO. I really don't know how to respond to your post. So much irony....


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> How many booster shots are you willing to take? 4, 6, 10? Twice a year for the rest of your life? 4 times a year for the rest of your life? ...


 ... as long as it takes to avoid the ICU but first to avoid catching the germs coming out from the likes of your mouth.

Let me put it this way, I take the flu-shot annually on the advice and supervision of my attending physician. [I cannot help you if you don't trust your doctor but then there's always the internet to self-medicate.] Simple reason being I caught a "real BAD" case of the flu (like from a decade ago) that almost landed me in the ER. And from that incident, I also developed asthma and sinus-infections which are permanent (aka meaning life-long). If I get a repeat of that incident, without the annual shot to fight the virus, I'm sure to land in the ICU. I'm gathering you haven't seen or experienced what it is like to be gasping for air. Or maybe of the mindset that only fat people have trouble breathing.

Btw, if they have a loyalty card for the vaccine/flu shot, that would be neat. I'll be the first to sign up for that. At least I have my life to enjoy the reward as simple as enjoying a cup of hot-choco whilst in minus 30C.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

@Beaver101, you sure you're not making all that up? Cause there are no scientific papers that support your cause. Is your doctor reliable? He may be sleeping with all the world leaders and "in" on all the lies they tell the world. You want some of the scientists on this forum to research some Youtube videos to make sure?  😆


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> I've taken it zero times so far. So, I guess my answer is "none".
> 
> Now it's your turn. How many times are you willing to take a Covid shot?


 ... one of my pal said that "I don't take the flu-shot" as I don't need it. I don't disbelieve her since she doesn't work, set her own hours, drives her own car, go where she wants to go which is mostly in her condo so basically breathe her own air. And then goes "I don't understand why you always need the shot" and yet believes there're silent spreaders out there. F-Duh.


----------



## bgc_fan

Just so people are tracking, it's likely that omicron wasn't a mutation into a weaker strain. It's likely that there was genetic crossover with the common cold virus, indicated by genetic sequencing that shows a similarity to the common cold. It would explain why it is more transmittable and possibly less dangerous, with most people exhibiting cold-like symptoms.









Omicron variant may have picked up a piece of common-cold virus


The Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 likely acquired at least one of its mutations by picking up a snippet of genetic material from another virus - possibly one that causes the common cold - present in the same infected cells, according to researchers.




www.reuters.com


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> @Beaver101, you sure you're not making all that up? Cause there are no scientific papers that support your cause. Is your doctor reliable? He may be sleeping with all the world leaders and "in" on all the lies they tell the world. You want some of the scientists on this forum to research some Youtube videos to make sure?  😆


 ... hey, it's up to the wolves to decide what they want to believe in - this is a free country. No holds from me. However a reminder is the air belongs to every one, not just that group alone.


----------



## Beaver101

Opinion: The anti-vaccine rants from Doug Ford’s daughter are now a matter of public interest

Article is behind a paywall so anyone interested for details need to ask since I'm not sure exactly where it belongs. Politics? Title is telling so it's linked here ... what a revelation, bringing shame (if not waste) on daddy, especially for all his hard work to date.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> Opinion: The anti-vaccine rants from Doug Ford’s daughter are now a matter of public interest
> 
> Article is behind a paywall so anyone interested for details need to ask since I'm not sure exactly where it belongs. Politics? Title is telling so it's linked here ... what a revelation, bringing shame (if not waste) on daddy, especially for all his hard work to date.


Just wait until you hear about Hunter Biden... 😂


----------



## KaeJS

Heard from someone I know today that there were two confirmed cases in their workplace.

Both were fully vaxxed.
They have been sent home to isolate for 14 days.

Good thing they got the vaccine.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> Just wait until you hear about Hunter Biden... 😂


 .. not interested in USA topic(thread)-*un*related news.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Heard from someone I know today that there were two confirmed cases in their workplace.
> 
> Both were fully vaxxed.
> They have been sent home to isolate for 14 days.
> 
> Good thing they got the vaccine.


 ... no testings prior to work? Yes, it's a good thing they're vaccinated so at least they can convalesce at home, hopefully with pay.


----------



## Money172375

KaeJS said:


> Heard from someone I know today that there were two confirmed cases in their workplace.
> 
> Both were fully vaxxed.
> They have been sent home to isolate for 14 days.
> 
> Good thing they got the vaccine.


Yup. They’ll probably have a minor case and not end up in the ICU.


----------



## damian13ster

Apparently Omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible than Delta (as per Bloomberg).


----------



## Beaver101

^ Don't matter. 

I think humans are at a crossroad with the Covid virus based on this "news" article (today Dec.9,2021):

Virus behind COVID-19 spreads quickly and mutations make it unpredictable: experts



> ... _Scientists and researchers look at other respiratory viral pandemics for an estimate on how long COVID-19 could stick around.
> 
> *"I'd guess the pandemic would last for a total of two to four years, and then we would start seeing things settle down, depending on what country you live in. But this isn't influenza,"* Bogoch said.
> 
> "So, I mean there's some lessons that I think we can learn from other pandemics, but we also have to recognize that this is not the flu and it might behave a little bit differently."
> 
> A statement from the World Health Organization said the opportunity to eradicate the virus is largely gone.
> 
> "We are moving toward the virus becoming endemic, which means it will stay with us," it said.
> 
> *"There is no formal definition or cutoff point at which an outbreak is considered a pandemic or ceases to be one, so this is not a simple question to answer."*
> 
> A pandemic is defined as a global spread of a disease that is either new or occurring well above normal levels, it said. ... _


 ... I think Dr. Bogoch is being optimistic there. We're already 2 years past so 4 years would be optimistic for an "endemic" otherwise, forever if it remains a pandemic.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> Apparently Omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible than Delta (as per Bloomberg).


Is that good or bad?


----------



## damian13ster

If it is true that symptoms are common-cold like? It is fantastic.

This article also explains why Pfizer is 41x less effective against Omicron than first strain, and why natural immunity is far superior as per research from South Africa. The simple reason is that vaccine induced antibodies recognize just spike protein, while natural recognize multiple parts of the virus that are unlikely to change from variant to variant.
That's why we need everyone to get Omicron if symptoms are indeed what South African doctors are claiming.









Omicron COVID-19 variant a wake-up call for vaccine makers, experts warn - National | Globalnews.ca


Several research groups have started work on more broadly protective COVID-19 vaccines, such as those that target parts of the virus too essential for its survival to change.




globalnews.ca


----------



## sags

There is no evidence that natural immunity is effective.

In fact, many of the infections in South Africa are re-infections among young un-vaccinated people.

The un-vaccinated assure the mutations will continue and new variants will be their gift to the world.


----------



## damian13ster

There was a study posted here that 1 dose with natural immunity is orders of magnitude better than 2 doses with no natural immunity. 
You can deny science and published research papers all you want.

Facts are that natural immunity is familiar with multiple proteins in the virus, not just spike protein, so it is much more robust against variants. 
Vaccine induced antibodies are familiar only with spike protein, which in case of Omicron, has 30 mutations and therefore vaccine protection decreased 41-fold.

Find me a medical professional and published scientific research that disagrees with that statement.


----------



## sags

All of the evidence shows that natural immunity provides insufficient protection against re-infection.









COVID Natural Immunity: What You Need to Know


Even if you’ve already had COVID-19, getting a coronavirus vaccine is recommended. These are the things you need to know about COVID natural immunity.




www.hopkinsmedicine.org


----------



## damian13ster

Insufficient? Depending on your definition of the word and threshold you use - perhaps.
Far superior from vaccination - that's a fact.
You still cite no evidence nor research papers.



https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v1-Sigal.pdf



We observed that Omicron infected the ACE2-expressing cells in a concentration dependent manner but did not infect the parental H1299 cells, indicating that ACE2 is required for Omicron entry (Fig. 1A). We then tested the ability of plasma from BNT162b2 vaccinated study participants to neutralize Omicron versus ancestral D614G virus in a live virus neutralization assay. We tested 14 plasma samples from 12 participants (Table S1), with 6 having no previous record of SARS-CoV-2 infection nor detectable nucleocapsid antibodies indicative of previous infection. For two of these participants, we used samples from two timepoints. The remaining 6 participants had a record of previous infection in the first SARS-CoV-2 infection wave in South Africa where infection was with ancestral D614G virus (Table S1). Geometric mean titer (GMT) FRNT50 (inverse of the plasma dilution required for 50% reduction in infection foci number) was 1321 for D614G. *These samples therefore had very strong neutralization of D614G virus, consistent with sampling soon after vaccination. GMT FRNT50 for the same samples was 32 for Omicron, a 41-fold decline (Fig 1B). However, the escape was incomplete, with 5 of the participants, all previously infected, showing relatively high neutralization titers with Omicron.* Beta variant escape from BNT162b2 in a live virus neutralization assay has been reported to be substantial (3) and our own data confirmed these results (4), with about 3-fold reduction in FRNT50. T*he results we present here with Omicron show much more extensive escape. However, escape was incomplete in participants with higher FRNT50 due to previous infection.* Previous infection, followed by vaccination or booster is likely to increase the neutralization level and likely confer protection from severe disease in Omicron infection.

What's awesome is that majority of the people had natural protection from infection from OVER A YEAR AGO! Clearly the protection doesn't disappear after 3-4 months like with the vaccines. Should be extremely happy as this fact is a huge step in changing this to endemic


----------



## sags

_The study was based on data collected through South Africa’s health system on about 2.8 million confirmed coronavirus infections between March 2020 and Nov. 27, including 35,670 suspected reinfections, the authors wrote in an emailed statement. *They detected a significant increase in reinfections since the first known cases of omicron. *_









You're Three Times More Likely to Get Reinfected by Omicron, South African Study Finds


The risk of reinfection from the omicron coronavirus variant is three times higher than for any previous strain, according to a South African study of infections since the start of the pandemic.




www.bloomberg.com


----------



## damian13ster

On other topic:



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-dec-9-2021-rapid-tests-science-table-1.6279201




https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-grossly-underutilizing-rapid-tests-experts-warn-even-as-covid-19-cases-tick-up-1.6278133




https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/covid-19-quebec-dec-9-1.6279116


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> _The study was based on data collected through South Africa’s health system on about 2.8 million confirmed coronavirus infections between March 2020 and Nov. 27, including 35,670 suspected reinfections, the authors wrote in an emailed statement. *They detected a significant increase in reinfections since the first known cases of omicron. *_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You're Three Times More Likely to Get Reinfected by Omicron, South African Study Finds
> 
> 
> The risk of reinfection from the omicron coronavirus variant is three times higher than for any previous strain, according to a South African study of infections since the start of the pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bloomberg.com


So? Having effective antibodies doesn't mean you won't get infected. That's why vaccines never protected against infection. They protected against hospitalizations/deaths.

Natural immunity provides orders of magnitude higher amount of effective antibodies against Omicron than vaccination does. That's a fact.


----------



## sags

Natural immunity doesn't provide protection against infection.


----------



## OptsyEagle

KaeJS said:


> Heard from someone I know today that there were two confirmed cases in their workplace.
> 
> Both were fully vaxxed.
> They have been sent home to isolate for 14 days.
> 
> Good thing they got the vaccine.


I bet they agree. I am sure they preferred to survive.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Natural immunity doesn't provide protection against infection.


 ... you see Damian13ster is such an advanced medical genius that he has this fixated belief (one of many) for natural immunity to ending the pandemic, just like his wish and instructions for Omicron on muscling out the other variants.

A simple question for him - if the host dies, what's the point of achieving natural immunity? Like to see the convoluted (polite description here) answer from him.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Natural immunity doesn't provide protection against infection.


 .. not anymore ... we're beyond that.


----------



## sags

There is little major news coverage of what is going on locally in hospitals, and that is where the real story is told.

In this hospital in Michigan, hospitalizations are rising and young people are dying from covid at a rate not seen before.

Some vaccinated people are ending up in the ICUs and dying.....but they are almost all people who were vaccinated more than 6 months ago.

They have had no deaths from people who had booster shots. The un-vaccinated are dying.

It strikes me that we are in denial when planning on parties, travel, and talking about "opening" things up and returning to "normal".

_"The problem is, it's not over yet. *I don't know if people realize just how critical it still is,*" he said.
"But they do realize it when they come into the ER, and they have to wait three days for a bed. And at that point, they realize it."_









Covid-19 patients at this hospital are dying 'at a rate we've never seen die before' -- and it's taking a toll on health care workers | CNN


Nurse Katie Sefton never thought Covid-19 could get this bad -- and certainly not this late in the pandemic.




www.cnn.com


----------



## OptsyEagle

It's not denial sags. There just comes a time when a person must move forward. Come out of the safety of the foxhole. Go into the dark room, find the bloody light and turn it on. 

That is what is going on. It will take a lot to stop it, in my opinion, and if the omicron is the best this virus can do, I doubt things will change anytime soon.


----------



## sags

That is what the people filling up the ICUs thought.


----------



## sags

We have outbreaks in schools now. How long before there are outbreaks in LTC homes again ?

We are heading back to the first days of the pandemic. Governments have been late to react to changing conditions.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> That is what the people filling up the ICUs thought.


Exactly. They had had enough. Of course the majority of people only experienced a new and welcome freedom.

At some point in time Sags you are going to have to come out of your foxhole. You can't stay there forever.


----------



## sags

So those people are taking up hospital resources and people needing surgeries and treatments are on waiting lists.


----------



## OptsyEagle

OK. You win. You can stay in your foxhole then.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario to clamp down on dubious exemptions from COVID-19 vaccination



> By Robert Benzie Queen's Park Bureau Chief Thu., Dec. 9, 2021_
> 
> Queen’s Park is “clamping down” on dubious medical exemptions by beefing up Ontario’s system for proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, the Star has learned.
> 
> “It’s not going to be OK just to have a doctor’s note — we know most of them aren’t valid,” a senior government official said Thursday night.
> 
> “We’re clamping down on ‘valid exemptions’ by putting them into the green pass system,” said the insider, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations.
> 
> To that end, Dr. Kieran Moore, the chief medical officer of health, is expected to announce Friday that the Verify Ontario QR code system now in use by more than 10 million Ontarians will be bolstered.
> 
> People who have obtained a doctor’s note excusing them from getting a COVID-19 shot will have to take it to a local public health unit for verification.
> 
> That information would then be included on a QR code on their phone so they can only access services such as restaurants, theatres or sports arenas with a valid exemption.
> 
> “We’ve seen the same doctors giving out exemptions to everyone who asks,” said the official, noting the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario has been barring some doctors from issuing vaccination or mask exemptions.
> 
> It is not known how many potentially invalid exemption letters are circulating.
> *... *_
> 
> _Moore will also confirm what Health Minister Christine Elliott said Monday: the proof-of-vaccination QR code provisionally slated to begin being phased out on Jan. 17 will continue to be used indefinitely.
> 
> That’s due to a recent surge in cases of COVID-19’s Delta variant, and the arrival of the more contagious Omicron variant.
> 
> Despite rumours that were circulating on Twitter — upsetting parents and students alike — Moore will not be shutting down schools early for the Christmas break or extending the holiday in January.
> 
> There had been some consideration of doing so in order to allow more children to get vaccinated next week, but public health officials nixed that idea.
> 
> ...
> *Moore and Premier Doug Ford have repeatedly said they prefer a targeted, regional approach to pandemic restrictions rather than a province-wide, one-size-fits-all strategy.*_


 ... the whack-o-mole approach. Only problem it's more like a tap-o-mole exercise. Yawn.


----------



## Beaver101

duplicate


----------



## Beaver101

OptsyEagle said:


> OK. You win. You can stay in your foxhole then.


 ... he can stay in his foxhole but his wife can't and she does (need to) come home from work. Very unfair of you to assume he was/is staying in his foxhole.

Which also means you're most welcome to join the Covid party(s) wherever it may be ... hopefully not at the ICU.


----------



## Beaver101

This news link for City of Toronto was from Tues. Dec.7, 2021 and today is Fri. Dec.10,2021.

Tory says city has no plans to delay broad return to work for city employees amid concerns around Omicron variant



> _...
> Hospitalization rates in the city also remain relatively low compared to previous waves of the pandemic.
> 
> “I'm not trying to minimize the Omicron variant for one second, we are watching it each and every day. But I will say that I think the overall reaction from say the business leaders that I met with last night seems to be one of you know thankfulness for the fact that we're watching this carefully and thankfulness for the fact that the City of Toronto and their governments have managed the pandemic reasonably well and put us in a position as a city where we can talk about having people come back to work,” Tory said on Tuesday. “I can also tell you that their enthusiasm for having people come back to work is as great as mine and they point out to me, without my putting words in their mouths, that a lot of the people who are coming back to work are very happy to have that experience, to have the experience of being with their colleagues again.”
> 
> In addition to office buildings, City Hall, Metro Hall and Toronto’s civic centres will be reopening to the public on Jan. 4._
> 
> *There are also plans to resume holding council meetings in-person in the New Year, though councillors will still have the option of participating virtually.*


* ... * I hope Tory does not need to eat his shoes for the rest of his cityworkers staff (ie. not just himself and the councillors) with the above "back-in-the-office" "plan".


----------



## sags

If we don't protect essential workers who keep society functioning, we will have really big problems.


----------



## sags

Kingston, Ontario ICUs are full. They are transferring patients.

_“We are seeing an unprecedented rise in cases,” Oglaza said. _









COVID-19: Ontario reports 1,009 new cases; 74 in Ottawa; Kingston transfers COVID-19 hospital patients as case surge continues


Kingston's Health Science Centre plans to transfer three patients to other hospitals because its intensive care unit is full.




ottawacitizen.com


----------



## Beaver101

^ The honchos at the top don't see it that way as "nothing can't be solved" under their "leadership". 

At the municipal level ... first, it's the yada yada yada yada lip service. Second collect more tax to pay them essential workers to keep their mouths shut. But NOT without giving themselves a big fat raise for an excellent job well done first! Third, b1tch about having to rob Paul (the taxpapayer) to pay Peter (the essential worker). 

I would agree it's not a pleasant job for a politician but then I have not yet heard (aka never heard) of any honcho(s) self-sacrificing.


----------



## HappilyRetired

They've had 2 full years to address possible staffing shortages at hospitals but they've done nothing or made it worse by laying people off.


----------



## sags

Are politicians listening to the scientists ?

_Ontario could see between 250 and 400 COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care in January, putting more strain on an already burdened health system, the province's science advisory table says. _



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-dec-7-2021-modelling-science-table-1.6276152


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Kingston, Ontario ICUs are full. They are transferring patients.
> 
> _“We are seeing an unprecedented rise in cases,” Oglaza said. _
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19: Ontario reports 1,009 new cases; 74 in Ottawa; Kingston transfers COVID-19 hospital patients as case surge continues
> 
> 
> Kingston's Health Science Centre plans to transfer three patients to other hospitals because its intensive care unit is full.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ottawacitizen.com


 ... the Windsor area (still Ontario) was already surged last week. So where are they planning to transfer all these patients to once the other hospitals are overflowed? Toronto? How about Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba to reciprocate?


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> _Ontario could see between 250 and 400 COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care in January, putting more strain on an already burdened health system, the province's science advisory table says. _
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-dec-7-2021-modelling-science-table-1.6276152


 ... they (aka Ms Elliott's dep't) better start recalling those mobile hospitals that they dismantled plus placing those unvaccinated healthcare workers there. Afterall nothing more suitable than unvaxxed healthcare workers working along the side of Covid patients.


----------



## Beaver101

again


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> Are politicians listening to the scientists ?
> 
> _Ontario could see between 250 and 400 COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care in January, putting more strain on an already burdened health system, the province's science advisory table says. _
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-dec-7-2021-modelling-science-table-1.6276152


Ontario has almost 400 hospitals so that's just 1 patient per hospital if the predictions are accurate.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... the Windsor area (still Ontario) was already surged last week. So where are they planning to transfer all these patients to once the other hospitals are overflowed? Toronto? How about Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba to reciprocate?


Maybe they could hire back the staff they fired?


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> Ontario has almost 400 hospitals so that's just 1 patient per hospital if the predictions are accurate.


 ... yep, based on your math. So in the meantime, the ICU nurses and docs get to pick their noses.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> Maybe they could hire back the staff they fired?


 ... I have yet to hear any unvaxxed staff being "fired", unpaid leave yes. Yeah, hire them back and stick them in the Covid ward, best solution.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... yep, based on your math. So in the meantime, the ICU nurses and docs get to pick their noses.


They are predicting 200 - 400 patients and there are 370 hospitals. That's my math. Tell us how your math works.


----------



## sags

There are 74 hospitals in Ontario with ICU care with about 2300 beds

A 20% increase in ICU patients would certainly have a negative impact.

Beds are the easy part. You will also need the necessary extra space, oxygen hookups, medical equipment and professional staffing.






Ontario's Hospitals Facing Most Serious Crisis in Their History


/CNW/ - "The Ontario Hospital Association welcomes the enhanced public health measures announced today by the Government of Ontario which are intended to...




www.newswire.ca


----------



## HappilyRetired

Luckily their predictions are usually wrong.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> They are predicting 200 - 400 patients and there are 370 hospitals. That's my math. Tell us how your math works.


 ... I don't even have to do any math to believe there're "400" hospitals in Ontario. Maybe there're if you add the small-town walk-in clinics as a hospital. Those numbers 200 to 400 refers to patients going into "an ICU ward per hospital". 

And sags pointed out there're only "74" hospitals with an ICU required to accommodate 200 to 400 patients at a time.

Use sags' numbers 2300 beds divided by 74 hospitals give an average of 31 patients per bed in each unit. If you have 200 to 400, that's an OVERFLOW. Even you have a bed, who / what will be attending the patient? Even the morgue in the basement will be overflowed.


----------



## sags

HappilyRetired said:


> Luckily their predictions are usually wrong.


Best winter ever ?


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> This news link for City of Toronto was from Tues. Dec.7, 2021 and today is Fri. Dec.10,2021.
> 
> Tory says city has no plans to delay broad return to work for city employees amid concerns around Omicron variant
> 
> * ... * I hope Tory does not need to eat his shoes for the rest of his cityworkers staff (ie. not just himself and the councillors) with the above "back-in-the-office" "plan".


Ontario asks people to work from home amid rising COVID-19 cases

Oh, looks like Tory has to eat his shoes if not have Dr. Moore do that for him. 

To work at home or not to work at home ... for the rest of the cityworkers, not him. Decisions, decisions, decisions re "the plan".


----------



## damian13ster

German commercial centers asking government to introduce numbered wristbands for vaccinated.
You cant make this stuff up....

Australia pushing up booster date to every 5 months instead of every 6. Getting closer to quarterly shots


----------



## sags

So businesses have decided they don't want vaccine deniers as customers anymore.


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> So businesses have decided they don't want vaccine deniers as customers anymore.


It's not really a choice when the government threatens them with heavy fines or closure.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> It's not really a choice when the government threatens them with heavy fines or closure.


 ... correct and who is the government?


----------



## sags

There must not be any anti-vaccine protests to attend today.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> There must not be any anti-vaccine protests to attend today.


 ... their numbers are shrinking, not due to deaths but due to "what? I gotta work to pay the bills". So roll-up them sleeves and get jabbed like everyone else.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> So businesses have decided they don't want vaccine deniers as customers anymore.


As usual, you have very loose relationship with facts.

Customers werent allowed to enter without. passport for a long time. This is not about this at all. Small, non-essential businesses lost 50% of revenue since the rule was introduced. They also have added cost of enforcement.
they dont want that cost and dont see why people need to be regularly checked.

so they want to come back to this:









good old times in Germany where you could see people who arent welcome in society right away.

This isnt about mandates. This is about physical differentiation between first and second class citizens


----------



## zinfit

wonder how many of the deniers here are believers in Invermechin .


----------



## KaeJS

COVID is BS.
So is invermectin.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> COVID is BS.


What do you mean by BS?

How about all the hospital beds with patients, and hospital resources going to treating people with Covid infections and pneumonia.

Is that just their imagination? Because it's occupying *real* resources, even if you think it's imaginary.


----------



## sags

Interesting how deniers manage to argue against themselves in their own posts.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> What do you mean by BS?
> 
> How about all the hospital beds with patients, and hospital resources going to treating people with Covid infections and pneumonia.
> 
> Is that just their imagination? Because it's occupying *real* resources, even if you think it's imaginary.


I mean it's overblown.
It's not really a pandemic.
People are not dying in the streets.

And if you've looked at the stats, less than 20 Canadians under the age of 20 have died since the beginning. Hardly something to freak out about when the average age of deaths is 79 years.

How is nobody looking at these numbers and not scratching their heads?

I am convinced COVID is a distraction. People are too scared of covid to take a look around and realize the world is going to hell. So many people jump in their car with other drivers on the highway and people are willing to accept they could die. But now people are scared to leave their house because of the flu.


----------



## sags

People were dying in the streets in China and India, before we got vaccines.

Anywhere they had no restrictions the hospitalizations and death tolls climbed, especially pre-vaccine.

Vaccines are the only thing holding society together. Allow the virus to run rampant and you would have no food in the stores to buy.

It is easy to forget the early days of the pandemic and the panic that ensued as people fought over supplies.

There was a rush on rice, toilet paper, canned food, and many other items.

Look at the recent flooding in BC and how quickly people panicked to buy gas. There was no shortage until people started hoarding it.

The worst outcome would be wholesale panic. Vaccines give people confidence so they don't panic.


----------



## HappilyRetired

It wasn't the people wary of getting the shot that panicked and emptied store shelves.

If you're under 60 and healthy Covid has a 99.95% survival rate. If you're scared to live your life with those odds you'll always be scared. Stay home and cower under your bed if you want but you no longer get to tell others how to live.


----------



## sags

The governments around the world have access to the best scientists and virus experts, the best economists, and the best experts on mass psychology.

People who think the governments are bumbling along, fail to notice that for the most part they are all adopting the same strategies to fight the pandemic.

They have to simultaneously battle the virus, prevent mass panic, and keep the economy from collapsing.

Anyone who says the governments did too much to support people, or should open up and see what happens..........are fools.


----------



## sags

We have an outbreak in a local hospital and 25 doctors and nurses are now self isolating.

That means a lot of surgeries and treatments were cancelled. What some people want is more of this...........times 100.

We still have patients in Ontario who were brought here from Manitoba, after they opened up and their hospitals overflowed.

Some people have poor memories and weak judgement skills.


----------



## Beaver101

Nearly 30 per cent of kids ages 5-11 in Toronto have received 1st dose of COVID-19 vaccine

Good to see this news and yesterday's success for Toronto at the Scotia Arena with 1600+ shots.

One arm at a time whatever it takes to keep people out of ICUs and hopefully diminish the pandemic in due time...which could be never (worst case scenario).


----------



## Beaver101

'There is a myth out there that it's mild,' head of Ontario's science table says of Omicron



> _Last Updated Monday, December 13, 2021 9:22AM EST
> 
> *The head of Ontario's Science Advisory Table is urging people to stop their "wishful thinking" when it comes to the Omicron coronavirus variant, adding that any suggestion that the COVID-19 variant causes milder illness is a "myth."*
> 
> "This is historical. This is unprecedented. This week Omicron will become the dominant variant in the province... People cannot imagine the sheer scale of what we are talking about here. It is really challenging," Dr. Peter Jüni, the head of the province's Science Advisory Table.
> 
> *"There is a myth out there that it's mild.* We need to address this myth now."
> ... _


 ... for anti-vaxxers, including the wannebees, deniers, supporters, regretters and the wolves, here's your chance to bash Dr. Peter Jüni, head of Ontario's Science Advisory Table,* if you dare.*


----------



## HappilyRetired

More 5 - 11-year old kids will die from the shot than from Covid.

And Omicron still has a 0% fatality rate.


----------



## newfoundlander61

This is just a question, not saying I would or would not agree, could Canada order all canadians to get vaccinated with the only exception being medical?


----------



## damian13ster

There are no human rights protections in Canada. They can literally do whatever they want. See residential schools, see forced sterilizations.
And at this point I don't think that majority of Canadians would even object. At this point you could build concentration camps (original meaning, not final year of WW2 version) like they are in Australia and majority of Canadians would approve.

Omicron now responsible for 40% of infections in London


----------



## sags

newfoundlander61 said:


> This is just a question, not saying I would or would not agree, could Canada order all canadians to get vaccinated with the only exception being medical?


No.......and I doubt they would ever want to try.

All they can do is apply pressure by requiring mandates to do things in public and continue to speak out on the hazard of not being vaccinated.

Provincial governments may at some point decide enough is enough and patients for non-covid treatments have to be prioritized, so they could set up "covid clinics" where the covid patients are sent to be treated. Hopefully, that would lower the risk of hospitals being shut down due to covid.

In my opinion, they should have done that already.


----------



## OptsyEagle

newfoundlander61 said:


> This is just a question, not saying I would or would not agree, could Canada order all canadians to get vaccinated with the only exception being medical?


The bigger problem then decreeing it, is enforcing it. Enforcing that act would be a much bigger problem to society then Covid-19 currently is, so I doubt you will see any politicians going there. It would be a total disaster.


----------



## sags

damian13ster said:


> There are no human rights protections in Canada. They can literally do whatever they want. See residential schools, see forced sterilizations.
> And at this point I don't think that majority of Canadians would even object. At this point you could build concentration camps (original meaning, not final year of WW2 version) like they are in Australia and majority of Canadians would approve.
> 
> Omicron now responsible for 40% of infections in London


Omicron............O *Micron*.....see what they did there ?

Micron electronic chips. This is the virus where they inject the chip in us. It is part of the George Soros and Bill Gates plan to control everyone.

Stock up on tinfoil to protect your brain. There is going to be panic buying when people find out* the truth*.


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> Nearly 30 per cent of kids ages 5-11 in Toronto have received 1st dose of COVID-19 vaccine
> 
> Good to see this news and yesterday's success for Toronto at the Scotia Arena with 1600+ shots.
> 
> One arm at a time whatever it takes to keep people out of ICUs and hopefully diminish the pandemic in due time...which could be never (worst case scenario).


This is just sad.


----------



## Spudd

KaeJS said:


> This is just sad.


Even if you think the vaccine isn't necessary for kids, I don't see how it's sad.


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> Omicron............O *Micron*.....see what they did there ?
> 
> Micron electronic chips. This is the virus where they inject the chip in us. It is part of the George Soros and Bill Gates plan to control everyone.
> 
> Stock up on tinfoil to protect your brain. There is going to be panic buying when people find out* the truth*.


I know you're being a smart ***, but vaccine passports won't end if/when Covid is no longer a threat. People accepted them willingly so they'll morph into carbon passports or something similar. 

FYI, I predicted a year ago that we'd be forced to show proof of vaccination to participate in society and some of my friends called me a conspiracy theorist.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Spudd said:


> Even if you think the vaccine isn't necessary for kids, I don't see how it's sad.


It's sad because kids have a higher risk of dying from the vaccine than from Covid. In addition, myocarditis is a known and serious side effect of the shot, mostly affecting young people.


----------



## newfoundlander61

They started something new today at a local Tim Horton's, if you say you are dining in you know get asked a load of questions from a sheet the staff has and only after you answers each question yes or no do they then look at your vaccine receipt and take your info and finally your order. To me this is nuts, and will not do much of anything to reduce the spread but only tick people off and keep them from eating in.


----------



## damian13ster

HappilyRetired said:


> I know you're being a smart ***, but vaccine passports won't end if/when Covid is no longer a threat. People accepted them willingly so they'll morph into carbon passports or something similar.
> 
> FYI, I predicted a year ago that we'd be forced to show proof of vaccination to participate in society and some of my friends called me a conspiracy theorist.


He is not being smart. He is just being an ***. 
Unfortunately debate on merits of ideas is above the capability so therefore one resorts to ridicule. 

The erosion of rights and lack of empathy in Canadians will never be recovered unfortunately. This country has changed - forever. Behind iron curtain people had more integrity than Canadians have.


----------



## damian13ster

Supposedly 21% of cases in Ontario is already Omicron. Great news!


----------



## andrewf

I get the sense Damian thinks the government should be fogging cities with COVID to maximize infection.


----------



## damian13ster

andrewf said:


> I get the sense Damian thinks the government should be fogging cities with COVID to maximize infection.


With Omicron, if it turns out to be as mild as first reports are - definitely.
With Delta - no way
It has been a month for South Africa and their hospitalizations aren't up. It is now dominant variant in UK and only 10 hospitalizations so far from Omicron, majority of them among vaccinated.
We need to push dangerous Delta out
Since vaccines are useless against Omicron (AZ 0% protection after 12 weeks, Pfizer 4x less than Delta (which was at 20% after 4 months)) then we need to gain immunity while variant is mild before something that is not so mild comes along


----------



## Beaver101

newfoundlander61 said:


> They started something new today at a local Tim Horton's, if you say you are dining in you know get asked a load of questions from a sheet the staff has and only after you answers each question yes or no do they then look at your vaccine receipt and take your info and finally your order. To me this is nuts, and will not do much of anything to reduce the spread but only tick people off and keep them from eating in.


 ... that practice is overkill. Maybe that's the intent of the workers at that TH's location - keep the customers away.

My local fast food joint only asks the customer who wants to dine-in the question "have you been vaccinated"? And the usual reply is "yes" of which the fast food joint takes the customer's word and sits down to eat. That's because they're far too busy to actually "scan" the code. Mind you I think they reserve the right to verify vaccination status later should they choose to or someone complains. 

And that eatery has never returned to pre-pandemic levels (aka packed) because most of the (regular) customers are collaboratively sensible with mostly take-outs and/or order home deliveries (for WAHrs) at this time.


----------



## Beaver101

New Zealand Man Vaccinated Up To 10 Times In The Same Day

Now if this guy dies from being over-vaccinated, then that's sad. And those morons who paid him to take their vaccines in order to cheat the system should be charged with manslaughter.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> And if you've looked at the stats, less than 20 Canadians under the age of 20 have died since the beginning. Hardly something to freak out about when the average age of deaths is 79 years.


So people don't have a right to live unless they're in their 20s?

Many youngish Canadians have died from covid. There have been 2,000 deaths in people under age 60. And *800 deaths of people under age 50*.

And in the US, where more people think like you, there were 53,000 deaths of people under age 50.


----------



## damian13ster

No, it just shows it is non-sensical to mandate it for people under 20. Vaccines don't stop infections so under 20s aren't protecting anyone, and they themselves don't need protection


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> So people don't have a right to live unless they're in their 20s?


I don't have a right to not put things inside my body or wear a mask without losing all my freedoms?

The math doesn't make sense.
This is not a pandemic.

This is some crazy, virtue signaling, healthcare profit boosting, clown world distraction.

You are all insane.
Stop drinking the Kool-aid, look at the stats, have an open mind, and come to the realization that you're all being played.

Once again - people have no problem getting on the highway with random people they don't know who could be drunk, have no license, be 60+ and haven't driven for 2 months, etc...

You all are fine with that, but God forbid someone gets in an elevator or something without a mask on lol.


----------



## Beaver101

Workplace vaccination mandates will likely include a third shot, say labour law experts

Above link is behind a paywall so don't have full details. However, link is an indication of status of vaccination and the workplace or employment.


----------



## sags

Big announcement coming in Ontario at 3 pm.

With cases spiking, they say the government will apply heavy restrictions, including on LTC homes.

They also want to go back to mass vaccinations again.

Government usually moves really slow to do anything, but it looks like something has spooked them to move quickly.


----------



## Money172375

sags said:


> Big announcement coming in Ontario at 3 pm.
> 
> With cases spiking, they say the government will apply heavy restrictions, including on LTC homes.
> 
> They also want to go back to mass vaccinations again.
> 
> Government usually moves really slow to do anything, but it looks like something has spooked them to move quickly.


Not.

Big announcements are usually made by the Minister. More restrictions coming (I’m guessing capacity reduction Leafs/Raptors games) and restaurants. Possibly overall capacity restrictions everywhere.


----------



## Beaver101

News on LTCs:

All visitors of Ont. long-term care homes must now be fully vaccinated, province says



> Last Updated Tuesday, December 14, 2021 2:56PM EST
> 
> Only vaccinated visitors will now be allowed inside long-term care homes in Ontario and starting Friday, long-term care residents can host up to two vaccinated visitors indoors only after they present a negative COVID-19 test, the Ontario government announced Tuesday.
> 
> The province confirmed that a series of new public health measures will be implemented this week in long-term care homes as the more infectious Omicron variant spreads rapidly in Ontario.
> “Our priority is to protect long-term care residents from COVID-19. Faced with rising rates of community infection and the emerging threat of the Omicron variant, we are immediately implementing further measures to protect our most vulnerable based on the best available scientific and medical advice,” Rod Phillips, Ontario's long-term care minister, said in a news release issued today.
> 
> The province said effective immediately, all general visitors to long-term care homes must be fully vaccinated to enter and *it appears no exception will be made for children who have not yet received two doses of an approved COVID-19 vaccine.
> 
> At 12:01 a.m. on Friday, more measures will come into effect, including the testing of all staff, students, volunteers, and caregivers at least twice a week before they gain entry to the facility, regardless of vaccination status.*
> 
> Caregivers must be fully vaccinated unless they have a valid medical exemption or are attending to a resident in palliative care.
> 
> "Caregivers will be required to have a first dose by December 20, 2021 and all required doses to be considered fully vaccinated by February 21, 2022. In the interim, designated caregivers who are not fully vaccinated would need to restrict their visit to the resident’s room," the news release read.
> 
> Only two visitors will be allowed to see a resident at one time indoors and a maximum of four visitors will be permitted outdoors.
> 
> Social day trips will only be permitted for residents who are fully vaccinated and overnight absences for social purposes will be suspended for all residents.
> 
> Additional restrictions will be implemented at retirement homes starting Dec. 22.
> 
> The province says rapid antigen tests will be required for staff, volunteers, contractors, and essential caregivers two times per week prior to entry.
> 
> Rapid tests will also be required for general visitors and support workers and the province says it is "strongly encouraging" retirement homes to restrict general visitors to only those who are fully vaccinated.
> 
> “As we continue to learn more about the Omicron variant and see its impacts on other jurisdictions around the world, it is critical we provide those at greatest risk from COVID-19 in our congregate care settings with an extra layer of protection against this new enemy,” Dr. Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health, said in a written statement.
> 
> “By strengthening public health measures in these settings, we can ensure our most vulnerable are kept safe and shielded from the threats posed by Omicron and other variants of concern.”


 ... sounds like these new health measures restrict any body to those who only needs to be there to assist the residents ... ie. down to only staff and caregivers. Makes absolute sense.


----------



## Beaver101

I would agree with sags something must have really spooked Ontario's top medical officer to make this announcement:

Top health official says that province may need 'consistent' approach to public health measures amid threat posed by Omicron

But not without consulting Ms. Elliott first who then needs to consult Ford so that the "real" measures can get announced at the end of the week ... with the measures then to take place ... in a couple of weeks. Yawn and let me pick my nose first.


----------



## Money172375

By all accounts I’ve read, the case counts will explode…..possibly to levels not seen before. The impact to hospitals, ICUs, deaths etc TBD.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Money172375 said:


> By all accounts I’ve read, the case counts will explode…..possibly to levels not seen before. The impact to hospitals, ICUs, deaths etc TBD.


Just one person has died so far. With Omicron, not necessarily because of Omicron. There's probably no need to stock up on body bags yet.


----------



## sags

The death counts from Omicron appear to be low, but they are also worried about increasing long term health effects.


----------



## damian13ster

Yeah, it is known fact that itchy throat and one day of muscle aches will destroy your body for next 50 years.....


----------



## sags

You back to the "it's only a flu bug" again ?

I would think that was laid to rest a long time ago.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> You back to the "it's only a flu bug" again ?
> 
> I would think that was laid to rest a long time ago.


Omicron specifically, not all variants. Not even a flu. It took characteristics from common cold virus.

"Noach said anecdotal evidence gathered from doctors treating omicron patients outside hospitals showed a high reinfection rate and multiple breakthrough infections in vaccinated people that emerge after a short incubation period of three to four days.
Most infections are described as mild, with recoveries usually within three days, he said. The most common early symptom reported is a scratchy throat, followed by nasal congestion, a dry cough and myalgia, or aches, manifesting in lower back pain."



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/14/south-africa-omicron-coronavirus/



*How do Omicron symptoms differ?*
Fatigue was one of the main symptoms her patients were reporting, Dr Coetzee said.

Other symptoms were a mild headache, body aches, and a scratchy throat.

But she said unlike the Delta variant, patients have so far not reported a loss of taste or smell. There was also no major drop in oxygen levels.


----------



## sags

And then someone died from Omicron.

If the attending doctor only had 1 patient with the Omicron variant might they say.....they were the only patient I had with Omicron virus and they died, so the death rate is 100 % ?


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> And then someone died from Omicron.
> 
> If the attending doctor only had 1 patient with the Omicron variant might they say.....they were the only patient I had with Omicron virus and they died, so the death rate is 100 % ?


WITH Omicron, not from Omicron.
Based on your following question you are likely to die with lack of knowledge, but that doesn't mean it was from lack of knowledge.

And it isn't 1/1. It is 1 in entire world over a full month since the variant was discovered that died WITH omicron.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> By all accounts I’ve read, the case counts will explode…..possibly to levels not seen before. The impact to hospitals, ICUs, deaths etc TBD.


 ... looks like Ford hasn't gone ice-fishing yet. 

Ford to make announcement about COVID-19 booster shots Wednesday: Source



> Last Updated Tuesday, December 14, 2021 7:44PM EST
> _Premier Doug Ford is expected to make an announcement Wednesday about booster shots as Ontario looks to ramp up its third-dose vaccination campaign.
> 
> Ford's cabinet is set to meet Wednesday morning.
> 
> A government source tells CP24 that he will have an announcement the same day about booster shots.
> 
> It is believed that Ford will detail the province’s plans to dramatically expand capacity for administering booster shots to Ontarians.
> 
> ...
> 
> Provincial officials have said that all Ontarians 18 and over will become eligible on Jan. 4, but there has been some speculation that eligibility for that group could be brought forward amid concerns over the more infectious Omicron variant, which appears to do a better job of getting past two vaccine doses.
> 
> On Monday night Ontario Hospital Association President Anthony Dale said hospitals in the province are moving to implement instructions to “urgently” reactivate their mass vaccination programs, even at the cost of other clinical services.
> 
> *He reiterated in a statement Tuesday that there is no other choice since the province is in a “race against time” with the variant.*
> 
> “Unfortunately, the healthcare system is anticipating and actively planning for a significant increase in patients with covid related critical illness (CRCI) in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) through December and into January,” Dale said in the statement.
> 
> He said that in order to do so, hospitals will use “targeted community-based initiatives utilizing lessons learned from previous waves.”
> 
> “To do so will require a large number of health care workers to perform vaccination duties and this will have a major impact on other clinical services,” Dale said. “Mass vaccination is the best way to protect the people of Ontario from the threat posed by Omicron and it will take a strong collaboration among hospitals, primary care, pharmacies, municipalities and the private sector if we are to be successful.”
> 
> Health officials have warned that Omicron could be the dominant variant in Ontario by the end of the week. On Tuesday, Ontario's top doctor said that a province-wide approach could be needed in order to contain the spread of the variant. He said there would be a discussion in the coming days about what steps that might include._


 ... just what anti-vaxxers and their wannebees like to hear ...


----------



## KaeJS

I saw this coming a year ago.
Which is exactly why my "happily unvaxxed" shirt says 0/2+?

Because we all knew boosters and extra jabs were coming. Not exactly rocket science.


----------



## sags

damian13ster said:


> WITH Omicron, not from Omicron.
> Based on your following question you are likely to die with lack of knowledge, but that doesn't mean it was from lack of knowledge.
> 
> And it isn't 1/1. It is 1 in entire world over a full month since the variant was discovered that died WITH omicron.


Same theory as your South African GP in a small clinic and a couple of patients with mild symptoms from Omicron.

Roll up your sleeves. I got a feeling you will have to continually move the yard sticks again and again....like you always do.


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> Roll up your sleeves. I got a feeling you will have to continually move the yard sticks again and again....like you always do.


A lot of yardsticks have been moved:
1. 2 weeks to flatten the curve
2. 70% herd immunity
3. 80% herd immunity
4. 90% herd immunity
5. Everyone needs a shot
6. Everyone needs 2 shots
7. Everyone needs a booster

I've probably missed a few but you get the point.


----------



## damian13ster

Nah, we are way beyond that. Over 4,700 omicron cases confirmed in UK alone, with a total of 10 hospitalizations, majority of hospitalized being fully vaccinated. As of Dec 14


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> And then someone died from Omicron.
> 
> If the attending doctor only had 1 patient with the Omicron variant might they say.....they were the only patient I had with Omicron virus and they died, so the death rate is 100 % ?


They died with Omicron not of it. The survival rate is still 100%.

Interestingly, that makes some people unhappy.


----------



## damian13ster

Oh yeah. Sags will be doing a happy dance the more people die just so he can say - I told you so.

The fact that Omicron has cold-like symptoms that last on average 2-3 days is a reason to celebrate, not to get annoyed


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Can someone tag the health officials? We need to introduce them to the scientists on this thread. We need to alert them that the world has got it all wrong. All their years of research and study was just a waste of time. COVID? Pandemic? Where?


----------



## damian13ster

All their years of research led them to recommend masks during sex, glory holes, two-week lockdown, led them to disagree on how many doses we need, determined that national parks are danger zones.........
Health officials proved to be nothing more than another bunch of politicians detached from reality and facts.

Peer-reviewed scientific research with no apparent conflict of interest seems to be the only reasonable way to go for now.


----------



## sags

The scientists are learning as the Omicron virus spreads, not only very quickly but also in ways they don't yet understand.

Example.....2 people across the hallway from each other in a quarantine hotel, never had contact with anyone, and one passed the virus to the other.

900 infected at a US university, 37 NFL players one day and 28 the next. The Beijing Olympics are now in serious doubt.

This is crazy. Lock downs may the only thing left that the government can do.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> All their years of research led them to recommend masks during sex, glory holes, two-week lockdown, led them to disagree on how many doses we need, determined that national parks are danger zones.........
> Health officials proved to be nothing more than another bunch of politicians detached from reality and facts.
> 
> Peer-reviewed scientific research with no apparent conflict of interest seems to be the only reasonable way to go for now.


And yet, your hours of research on google while sitting on the toilet is giving us the truth. Go figure!


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> The scientists are learning as the Omicron virus spreads, not only very quickly but also in ways they don't yet understand.
> 
> Example.....2 people across the hallway from each other in a quarantine hotel, never had contact with anyone, and one passed the virus to the other.
> 
> 900 infected at a US university, 37 NFL players one day and 28 the next. The Beijing Olympics are now in serious doubt.
> 
> This is crazy. Lock downs may the only thing left that the government can do.


If 2 people infected each other from separate rooms across a hallway then lockdowns won't work. Someone didn't bother to research that claim, either due to laziness or intentionally. Until verified that's just speculation.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> And yet, your hours of research on google while sitting on the toilet is giving us the truth. Go figure!


It's much easier to read govt press releases and Pfizer CEO tweets for the official version of the truth.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> And yet, your hours of research on google while sitting on the toilet is giving us the truth. Go figure!


Better than blindly following politicians or politician appointed personnel' advice. Or Pfizer who now claims their product is a 4-dose (at least).

"Hey, let's wait until we have community spread of Omicron in all provinces, and only THEN close the borders" - bunch of geniuses that should never be questioned 😂


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The scientists are learning as the Omicron virus spreads, not only very quickly but also in ways they don't yet understand.
> 
> Example.....2 people across the hallway from each other in a quarantine hotel, never had contact with anyone, and one passed the virus to the other.
> 
> 900 infected at a US university, 37 NFL players one day and 28 the next. The Beijing Olympics are now in serious doubt.
> 
> This is crazy. *Lock downs may the only thing left that the government can do.*


 ... I think lockdowns will be inevitable 'cause people are just flouting the rules. [And this is not the worst of it. Civil liberties or not.]


----------



## Beaver101

Can't find the previous link despite searching for pages and pages and ... for the past 10 minutes.

Toronto pharmacist quits job in protest over Shoppers Drug Mart symptomatic COVID-19 testing plan



> _Last Updated Wednesday, December 15, 2021 5:59AM EST
> A Shoppers Drug Mart pharmacist in Toronto has quit his job to protest symptomatic COVID-19 testing in pharmacies, saying he repeatedly told the company he was not comfortable with the plan but was instructed to do the tests anyway.
> 
> Michael Miranda first became aware of the plan to swab symptomatic people, and those suspected of infection due to close contact with a case, in early November and was immediately concerned it presented a risk to everyone inside his store.
> 
> “It should be the opinion of the individual pharmacy whether they are equipped to do this testing,” Miranda told CP24. “I believe there are circumstances where pharmacists can do symptomatic testing,” he said, referring to proper procedures for PPE and doing the swabs outdoors.
> 
> “But this will cause more cases than it will find.”
> 
> He says he and his boss, who owns the franchise, repeatedly relayed concerns about symptomatic people walking through the store on the way to their counselling room for a swab.
> 
> *They also expressed concerns about ventilation, use of respirator masks and sharing the same confined space to do COVID-19 vaccinations as well as symptomatic testing.
> 
> They were told to continue preparing for testing anyways.
> 
> Symptomatic tests are supposed to be conducted by appointment only, but Miranda said that hasn’t stopped sick people casually from walking into the store and asking for a test without an appointment.*
> 
> “I have had conversations face to face with people saying ‘I have COVID symptoms, please test me,’ and they have coughed on me,” Miranda said.
> 
> Up until mid-November, pharmacies were only allowed to swab people without symptoms, for purposes of travel, or to conduct asymptomatic surveillance testing on a select number of vulnerable groups.
> 
> That changed Nov. 18 when the province announced a plan to expand its testing program from assessment centres into neighbourhood pharmacies.
> 
> A training document from Shoppers Drug Mart obtained by CP24at the time states that pharmacists conducting symptomatic testing were required to participate in a “live training session” for symptomatic specimen collection.
> 
> “At least one pharmacy team member from each team must either attend the session or view the recording as soon as possible,” the training manual said.
> 
> *“They have no plans for in-person PPE training,” Miranda said. “Nobody has gotten any in-person training.”*
> 
> Asked about whether individual stores and pharmacists are forced to conduct symptomatic testing, a spokesperson for Loblaws, which owns Shoppers Drug Mart, said that is not the case.
> 
> “As we’ve said all along, our stores are independently owned and operated, and as such have the final decision on providing symptomatic testing for patients. If the store owner does not want to participate, or does not believe they can do it safely, they don’t have to.”
> 
> *But Miranda says that when he and the store owner raised concerns, two representatives from the company came to visit the location and convince them otherwise.
> 
> CONCERNS WERE RAISED EARLY*
> 
> Safety concerns and contradictions have presented themselves throughout the rollout of the symptomatic COVID-19 testing program.
> 
> Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore suggested testing only be done at pharmacies equipped with a separate entrance for symptomatic people to use– but that is not required by the province.
> 
> The guidance document prepared by the province for pharmacies says use of respirator masks, considered the gold standard of protection for healthcare workers battling what is now considered to be an airborne virus, is also “not required.”
> 
> Documents obtained by CP24 show that Shoppers Drug Mart will allow testing outdoors, something epidemiologists said would greatly reduce risk, but Miranda said there are numerous operational issues that would prevent most pharmacies from swabbing patients outside.
> 
> Miranda said he chose to publicize his resignation to put pressure on Shoppers Drug Mart and the Ministry of Health to reconsider the program, which now involves 585 pharmacies across Ontario.
> 
> *“There is a reason we don’t put vaccination clinics in assessment centres, and Shoppers is trying to do both,” he said.*
> 
> He said the arrival of the Omicron variant, and its increased transmissibility, is cause for the government to cancel the programand urged Ontarians not to visit pharmacies conducting symptomatic testing.
> 
> *“If you see (the symptomatic testing) sign at a pharmacy, that is a do not enter sign,” he said.*
> 
> Asked if symptomatic COVID-19 testing in pharmacies was safe for the coming Omicron coronavirus wave, Ontario’s Ministry of Health said Tuesday they saw no problem in continuing.
> 
> “Based on our experience so far, there is no evidence suggesting that it poses any risk to the public or staff. In fact this model is used widely in other jurisdictions,” Ministry spokesperson W.D. Lighthall told CP24. “Pharmacies must choose to opt-in to this voluntary program and per the ministry’s guidance to pharmacies, participating pharmacies are expected to implement and follow infection prevention and control measures to protect staff, patients and customers against COVID-19.”_


 ...

Anyhow, I'm with Mr. Miranda here, first as a very concerned customer and second, having to listen to typical BS spins from its corporate which is nothing short of GREED. Full stop shopping at SDM now. Boycott will be next as have never been a fan of Loblaws. Thank lord, my prescriptions aren't with SDM.

And that spokesperson Lighthall should be getting Ms. Elliott to respond to her spokesperson's expertise of "no evidence of risk to the public", if not, Dr. K. Moore. 

I don't want my health tax dollars supporting bureaucrats' incompetencies here.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> Better than blindly following politicians or politician appointed personnel' advice. Or Pfizer who now claims their product is a 4-dose (at least).
> 
> "Hey, let's wait until we have community spread of Omicron in all provinces, and only THEN close the borders" - bunch of geniuses that should never be questioned 😂


I bet you tell your mechanic how to fix your car; your electrician how to wire your house; your accountant how to submit your taxes and your barber how to cut your hair.

Did you also tell your teachers to google the courses before teaching them to you?


----------



## damian13ster

If the mechanic tells me that I need to replace entire engine when it is a water pump failure then yeah - you are damn right I will fix it myself or ask only to do that specific task. 
If a mechanic can't figure out how to fix a car after it has been sitting in a shop for 2 years then yeah, I will start questioning him.

Assume you would just continue cutting cheque after cheque and never question any of the actions?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Having an incompetent mechanic is not the same as having a majority of incompetent mechanics.


----------



## damian13ster

And how would you know you have incompetent mechanic if you never questioned his decisions?
The problem is that decisions are being made unilaterally. And person/couple of individuals in power right now are incompetent and have been displaying that incompetence consistently over past 2 years.
The decisions are also made by political class, not experts in respective field. For a good reason, because there are a lot of moving parts when running the country; however, the problem is that political class we have turned out to be incompetent


----------



## Mortgage u/w

No one says you shouldn't question. The problem is you are just not listening.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> No one says you shouldn't question. The problem is you are just not listening.


To people that proved to be incompetent, yes. I did listen for first couple of months until their incompetence could be proven without reasonable doubt. Then I stopped listening to the political class making decisions and started to read published papers from variety of fields to evaluate the decisions rather than blindly listen to incompetent people we have in charge


----------



## Mortgage u/w

stop listening to politicians then.


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> No one says you shouldn't question. The problem is you are just not listening.


 ... don't quite agree with that .... damian13ster does listen ... only to himself and/or what he wants.


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> stop listening to politicians then.


 ... he can't do that either as then he has no one to complain about. 

Sometimes I really wonder about the intelligence levels of folks like damian13ster ...are they for real or given benefit of the doubt, must be smoking something.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Beaver101 said:


> ... he can't do that either as then he has no one to complain about.
> 
> Sometimes I really wonder about the intelligence levels of folks like damian13ster ...are they for real or given benefit of the doubt, must be smoking something.


ever notice what happens when a dog chases his own tail.........?


----------



## MK7GTI

Mortgage u/w said:


> ever notice what happens when a dog chases his own tail.........?


Aren’t you doing the same thing?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

MK7GTI said:


> Aren’t you doing the same thing?


Maybe I am, in trying to understand the logic of some people.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> stop listening to politicians then.


Positions appointed by politicians also fall under political class imho, which I have clarified with those quotes:

*"Health officials proved to be nothing more than another bunch of politicians* detached from reality and facts."
"Better than blindly following politicians or *politician appointed personnel'* advice."

You really think a health official would believe that masking is not needed or it is better for Canadians to send medical supplies to China? No politics involved in those decisions at all..... I am sure Tam did lot of research on that before the decisions. Probably as much as before 'masking during sex' advice

Therefore there is no inconsistency - political class (which include people appointed by politicians) make decisions - and they proved to be incompetent; therefore need to be questioned.

The decisions are made by political class, not by scientists, let alone scientists actually doing research.


----------



## Beaver101

*Mortgage u/w *#7,406 · a moment ago



> ...
> ever notice what happens when a dog chases his own tail.........?


^ I doubt those dogs (wolves actually) with those mindsets will admit to what their ultimate goal is for doing that. Just watching them going around and around and on and on ... just drains me. I wonder where they get all that energy spinning like that.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Its entertaining.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> You really think a health official would believe that masking is not needed or it is better for Canadians to send medical supplies to China? No politics involved in those decisions at all..... I am sure Tam did lot of research on that before the decisions. Probably as much as before 'masking during sex' advice


Would you advise your surgeon to not use a mask? Cause....I mean those masks......they're proven to be ineffective.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Positions appointed by politicians also fall under political class imho, which I have clarified with those quotes:
> 
> *"Health officials proved to be nothing more than another bunch of politicians* detached from reality and facts."
> "Better than blindly following politicians or *politician appointed personnel'* advice."
> 
> You really think a health official would believe that masking is not needed or it is better for Canadians to send medical supplies to China? No politics involved in those decisions at all..... I am sure Tam did lot of research on that before the decisions. Probably as much as before 'masking during sex' advice
> 
> Therefore there is no inconsistency - political class (which include people appointed by politicians) make decisions - and they proved to be incompetent; therefore need to be questioned.
> 
> The decisions are made by political class, not by scientists, let alone scientists actually doing research.


 ... do you know what is a "society" and do you not live in a country with one?


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> Would you advise your surgeon to not use a mask? Cause....I mean those masks......they're proven to be ineffective.


Ask that question to Dr. Tam - she is the one who said masks are not needed for the public, not myself. She actually said we should be careful from negative effects of wearing masks........
I didn't believe her and wore a mask, did you? Still scared of negative effects of wearing masks since the warning from Tam?
After all, we are not allowed to question the health officials


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> Ask that question to Dr. Tam - she is the one who said masks are not needed for the public, not myself. She actually said we should be careful from negative effects of wearing masks........
> I didn't believe her, did you? Still scared of negative effects of wearing masks since the warning from Tam?
> After all, we are not allowed to question the health officials


If you were to "listen", you would understand the consequences if people take wearing a mask for granted. 
Wearing a mask alone is not sufficient.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> If you were to "listen", you would understand the consequences if people take wearing a mask for granted.
> Wearing a mask alone is not sufficient.


"what we worry about is actually the potential negative aspects of wearing masks where people are not protecting their eyes..........and that gives you a full sense of confidence but also it increases the touching of your face if you think about it. If you got a mask around your face sometimes you can't help it because you're just touching parts of your face. The other thing is the outside of the mask could be contaminated as well......was their hands absolutely, that's the key so we'll also be worried about the negative of potentially negative impacts"

That's the direct quote from Dr. Tam.

And your last post shows massive hypocrisy both in your posts and in the government - there doesn't seem to be any worry if people take vaccine effects for granted. Lying about that is perfectly fine, but masks have negative effects to the public and are not recommended because people would take them for granted - Dr. Tam - never to be questioned.


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> If you were to "listen", you would understand the consequences if people take wearing a mask for granted.
> Wearing a mask alone is not sufficient.


 ... and that Youtube video is from March 20, *2020*, and today is Wed. Dec.15,*2021.*

Seems like damian13ster likes to go back in time so he can keep his "scientific prediction business " alive along with the "it's everybody else's fault except mine's". Really really high IQ there.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> "what we worry about is actually the potential negative aspects of wearing masks where people are not protecting their eyes..........and that gives you a full sense of confidence but also it increases the touching of your face if you think about it. If you got a mask around your face sometimes you can't help it because you're just touching parts of your face. The other thing is the outside of the mask could be contaminated as well......was their hands absolutely, that's the key so we'll also be worried about the negative of potentially negative impacts"
> 
> That's the direct quote from Dr. Tam.
> 
> And your last post shows massive hypocrisy both in your posts and in the government - there doesn't seem to be any worry if people take vaccine effects for granted. Lying about that is perfectly fine, but masks have negative effects to the public and are not recommended because people would take them for granted - Dr. Tam - never to be questioned.


 ... Freedom Island is within your reach.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> "what we worry about is actually the potential negative aspects of wearing masks where people are not protecting their eyes..........and that gives you a full sense of confidence but also it increases the touching of your face if you think about it. If you got a mask around your face sometimes you can't help it because you're just touching parts of your face. The other thing is the outside of the mask could be contaminated as well......was their hands absolutely, that's the key so we'll also be worried about the negative of potentially negative impacts"
> 
> That's the direct quote from Dr. Tam.
> 
> And your last post shows massive hypocrisy both in your posts and in the government - there doesn't seem to be any worry if people take vaccine effects for granted. Lying about that is perfectly fine, but masks have negative effects to the public and are not recommended because people would take them for granted - Dr. Tam - never to be questioned.


Isn't what I said exactly what you quoted?? There are consequences to wearing masks if you take for granted you are fully protected. Same thing with the vaccine. 

You really don't listen but now I'm worried you also have a hard time understanding simple English. I get she has an accent......but hey.


----------



## damian13ster

That was her explanation of why the public shouldn't wear masks......
Are you really going to defend a statement that public shouldn't wear masks? I guess health officials should never be questioned


----------



## Mortgage u/w

But she didn't say that we shouldn't be wearing masks! She only said there are 'potential negative aspects'.


----------



## damian13ster

FFS, and you accuse me of not understanding english?

"For the public, I think, current 'site?' of the evidence we are continuing to evaluate........putting a mask on asymptomatic person is not beneficial"

Now you are acting like a politician 😂


----------



## Mortgage u/w

oh yeah.....I see it now! "For the public....not beneficial.....negative aspects......DON'T WEAR MASKS" - there it is!!! I must have missed it! I underestimated you. Can you recommend something for the headache you caused - I mean, I have? I don't trust my doctor.


----------



## damian13ster

If they are not beneficial according to Dr. Tam then what would you wear them for? Decoration?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Smoking, drinking and Happy meals are not beneficial either. Where's the scientific papers and government controversy on these?

If you're going to take everything literal, twist it, add some salt to it and then $h!t it out on social media and try to make everyone believe it.....I just can't help you there.


----------



## sags

It appears that Damian13ster has a classic case of adult masklophobia.

*Masklophobia (sometimes referred to as maskaphobia)*_, is a specific phobia used to classify a general and in some cases an irrational fear of masks, people in costumed clothing and mascots which is common among toddlers and young children. _

There is medical treatment available.

_Effective treatments for masklophobia are commonly assessed using *exposure based therapies* to help sufferers confront their phobia of masked and costumed individuals to relieve irrational anxiety and stress, as the common psychological procedure for treating masklophobia is the general standard for treating patients._


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Be careful @sags of your source of information. Some crooked politician may be lying to you, cause the real experts on Tiktok have contradicting evidence.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario introducing new measures.

1. booster expansion. 18+ starting Friday. interval dropped to 3 months between 2nd and 3rd dose

2. mass rollout of rapid tests at malls, liquor stores, markets 

3. capacity at large venues (arenas, casinos etc) reduced to 50%.


----------



## sags

Thanks for the info.....just booked 3rd shot but couldn't get an appointment before Dec 30, so it was 3 days past 6 months anyways.

All the pharmacies are booked solid and all they say is "waiting list". Now it is impossible to get a flu shot.

I will have to try my doctor, but they are only open part time with no open appointments.


----------



## damian13ster

Money172375 said:


> Ontario introducing new measures.
> 
> 1. booster expansion. 18+ starting Friday. interval dropped to 3 months between 2nd and 3rd dose
> 
> 2. mass rollout of rapid tests at malls, liquor stores, markets
> 
> 3. capacity at large venues (arenas, casinos etc) reduced to 50%.


Finally! The first two seem like an absolute no-brainer.


----------



## Money172375

damian13ster said:


> Finally! The first two seem like an absolute no-brainer.


My kids got their rapid test kits from school today. All public students should get a kit in Ontario. 5 tests each to be used over the holiday break.

a reporter was pushing Ford today about what he’s doing to keep kids in school and what his plan is. I don’t think Ford is up to speed on the test kit delivery. Kids are instructed to test twice a week and finally again, the day before school is set to resume. Seems like a reasonable plan. 

a close friend is related to the minister of education’s chief of staff. He said the minister of Ed. And Ford rarely talk. Don’t get along.


----------



## sags

Our grandson was sent home today and will be home until the new year.......or longer.

There were 7 kids in his class alone who have covid. He can't get tested until next Tuesday.

They closed the entire school down. The family doesn't know how many covid cases there are in the school.

So the whole family is affected as they don't know if they are exposed or not.

They just all got tested last week because of a contact in a child care where the mom works.

They likely will all have to test again. Nobody can go to work. What a mess.

To add insult to injury, some stupid parent brought their kid to daycare with foot and mouth disease, which is highly infectious.

Now their toddler has it and the other family members could get it. You can't trust people to do the intelligent thing anymore.

Once again the government opened up the schools and created a problem. They also failed to shut down before this wave hit.

I hope Ford is prepared to pay people for their lost wages.

I don't think there is any way the schools will be open after Christmas break......testing or not.

So much for the "schools don't spread covid" nonsense.


----------



## KaeJS

Mortgage u/w said:


> And yet, your hours of research on google while sitting on the toilet is giving us the truth. Go figure!


I guess my 2 years of being unvaxxed, not following the rules, and living in a city of 600,000+ people just makes me (still) incredibly lucky!!

@damian13ster Some people don't like stepping out of their comfort zones. Some people also can't handle the truth. You will never win with the others in this thread. They're not thinking. They are receiving information and believing it. All open minded thoughts are currently not working. The gears just aren't spinning for some people.


----------



## sags

You have been lucky so far, but Omicron will try it's best to change that.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> You have been lucky so far, but Omicron will try it's best to change that.


2 years of luck.
Some pandemic we have here...

And I guess all the vaxxed people who still got COVID after the fact are just "super unlucky", right?


----------



## KaeJS

Let me tell you something...

The only lucky people are the 70+ year olds that didn't die of covid.

The only unlucky people are the less than 50 year olds that have died from it.

Everything else is noise.

Some unlucky people also die choking on a grape. But I don't think we should ban grapes.


----------



## sags

I hope your luck holds out, but you said all your friends are like you.......so I don't like your odds.

And if you think death is the only bad outcome........you haven't been paying attention.

Many young adults have serious medical problems resulting from a minor infection of covid.

It affects many areas of the body. You pays your money and takes your chances.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> I hope your luck holds out, but you said all your friends are like you.......so I don't like your odds.
> 
> And if you think death is the only bad outcome........you haven't been paying attention.
> 
> Many young adults have serious medical problems resulting from a minor infection of covid.
> 
> It affects many areas of the body. You pays your money and takes your chances.


Interestingly enough... None of my friends have gotten COVID, either. We must ALL be super lucky since we are all unvaxxed. Even the friends of mine that live in downtown Toronto. Super lucky, each and every one of us.

I also heard some young adults have serious medical conditions affecting the heart from taking the vaccine. Hm.


----------



## sags

You can be right almost every time, but the covid only has to be right once.


----------



## sags

What would you do if you got a call from one of your friends you were hanging around with telling you that they had covid ?

Would you tell your other friends, family, or employer ? Or would you pretend it is nothing much and walk around without telling anyone ?


----------



## KaeJS

I would definitely tell my employer.
That's 2 weeks off, paid!


----------



## Mortgage u/w

KaeJS said:


> Let me tell you something...
> 
> The only lucky people are the 70+ year olds that didn't die of covid.
> 
> The only unlucky people are the less than 50 year olds that have died from it.
> 
> Everything else is noise.
> 
> Some unlucky people also die choking on a grape. But I don't think we should ban grapes.


its idiotic comments and mentality like yours that is extremely disrespectful to the rest of society.
I’d like to see you hold up a conversation with someone who was ‘unlucky’ to have lost someone to covid.


----------



## sags

Two other schools besides our grandson's closed today.

There are now 9 schools in our school boards closed due to Covid and more are returning to virtual learning.

The Ford government has created a big problem for parents now having to quickly set up daycare again.

It is kind of difficult because even grandparents can't very well come to the daycare rescue now, without risking exposure to covid.









Four more London-area schools closing due to Omicron


Three elementary schools in London and one in Oxford County are closing because of the Omicron variant, London-area school boards said Wednesday night.




lfpress.com


----------



## diharv

If I was a vaccinated grandparent I'd say screw it and have the kids over. Then if I was a bit uptight I'd say no hugs or kisses until a rapid test done.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> I would definitely tell my employer.
> That's 2 weeks off, paid!


 ... sure, as if your non-self-employer allows you to be unvaccinated to return to work.


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> its idiotic comments and mentality like yours that is extremely disrespectful to the rest of society.
> I’d like to see you hold up a conversation with someone who was ‘unlucky’ to have lost someone to covid.


 ... not a surprising response given he's a proud member of the Troll-R-Us bin.


----------



## KaeJS

Mortgage u/w said:


> its idiotic comments and mentality like yours that is extremely disrespectful to the rest of society.
> I’d like to see you hold up a conversation with someone who was ‘unlucky’ to have lost someone to covid.


The go-to line.

Nobody is saying death isn't sad. You don't need to bring a guilt trip into the facts.

Imagine eating grapes around someone that lost someone to a grape...


----------



## KaeJS

Beaver101 said:


> ... sure, as if your non-self-employer allows you to be unvaccinated to return to work.


I currently am working and am not vaxxed.

But it's great that you know everything... Right?


----------



## Money172375

ontario science table predicting this wave will be the worst. Upwards of 10,000 daily cases in Ontario. Even with new measures, the wave may be “blunted”, but not flattened.


----------



## sags

The Calgary Flames hockey team has 10 cases of covid. The NFL has 100 cases.

Alberta's Premier Kenney's solution........pack the arenas full of fans.

He must have daimian13ster on staff as a covid advisor.


----------



## damian13ster

Calgary Flames is at over 20 cases now. With 100% vaccination rate.
And arenas won't be packed because Calgary Flames have no games right now since their fully vaccinated players are infected.


----------



## sags

You sound exactly like Kenney.......bewildered.


----------



## damian13ster

I have only provided facts, nothing more.
Amount of cases in Calgary Flames is higher than 20 (27 in last update).
They have 100% vaccination rate
Their games got cancelled/postponed.

I know you don't like facts, but don't lash out at people that provide them


----------



## damian13ster

David Staples: We're selling out our children with lockdown measures on them


Unlike Alberta, Sweden has essentially been over the pandemic since last June, with no new wave of deaths.




edmontonjournal.com





Dr. Deena Hinshaw had to say in late July: “I t’s really interesting to look at our seasonal influenza data from 2019-20 and see that we actually had a higher ICU rate for seasonal influenza and kids between four and nine than we’ve had from the entire past 17 months of COVID-19.”


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> I currently am working and am not vaxxed.


 ... I don't disbelieve you on both accounts here, only you're not being paid working for someone else, aka an unrelated arms-length employer, to be or remain as unvaxxed.



> But it's great that you know everything... Right?


 ... if you say so.


----------



## damian13ster

HKUMed finds Omicron SARS-CoV-2 can infect faster and better than Delta in human bronchus but with less severe infection in lung


A study led by researchers from HKUMed provides the first information on how the novel Variant of Concern of SARS-CoV-2, the Omicron SARS-CoV-2, infect human respiratory tract.




www.med.hku.hk





70 times higher multiplication in airways
10 times lower multiplication rate in lungs.

Amazing news


----------



## sags

The latest data shows a sharp rise in hospitalizations and ICU cases in South Africa due to the Omicron variant.

It confirms results coming from Denmark that the Omicron virus may be causing more hospitalizations and ICU cases than previous variants.

It appears that early indications of weaker symptoms from the Omicron variant were not accurate.

Stronger restrictions are highly recommended to slow the spread.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-dec-16-2021-science-table-modelling-omicron-1.6287900


----------



## Mortgage u/w

KaeJS said:


> The go-to line.
> 
> Nobody is saying death isn't sad. You don't need to bring a guilt trip into the facts.
> 
> Imagine eating grapes around someone that lost someone to a grape...


Yeeeah.....imagine eating grapes......


----------



## sags

Once again, damian13ster reads the headlines and jumps to conclusions which are proven false.

Reading the article he posted shows why the Omicron variant is so dangerous and vaccines are so important.

_t is important to note that the severity of disease in humans is not determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection, which may lead to dysregulation of the innate immune system, i.e. “cytokine storm”,’ said Dr Chan. ‘*It is also noted that, by infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic.* Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the Omicron variant can *partially* *escape immunity* from vaccines and past infection, *the overall threat from Omicron variant is likely to be very significant.’ *_


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The latest data shows a sharp rise in hospitalizations and ICU cases in South Africa due to the Omicron variant.
> 
> It confirms results coming from Denmark that the Omicron virus may be causing more hospitalizations and ICU cases than previous variants.
> 
> It appears that early indications of weaker symptoms from the Omicron variant were not accurate.
> 
> Stronger restrictions are highly recommended to slow the spread.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-dec-16-2021-science-table-modelling-omicron-1.6287900


 ... only workable "stronger restrictions" or non-fancy-pancy word of "circuit-breaker" is a LOCKDOWN.


----------



## damian13ster

It is significantly less dangerous to any individual compared to Delta - that is amazing news


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> ... only workable "stronger restrictions" or non-fancy-pancy word of "circuit-breaker" is a LOCKDOWN.


Yup......that is what they are talking about without actually saying the words.

I sensed some frustration at the press conference with Ontario's top doctors, when they say they are giving advice to the Ford government but it isn't always being heeded due to other "considerations". I think doctors and experts are getting tired of being the "fall guys" for governments failing to act.

Doctors aren't going to give the politicians cover anymore. Look at Dr. Hinshaw in Alberta and how Kenney blamed her for his bad decisions.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Once again, damian13ster reads the headlines and jumps to conclusions which are proven false.
> 
> Reading the article he posted shows why the Omicron variant is so dangerous and vaccines are so important.
> 
> _t is important to note that the severity of disease in humans is not determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection, which may lead to dysregulation of the innate immune system, i.e. “cytokine storm”,’ said Dr Chan. ‘*It is also noted that, by infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic.* Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the Omicron variant can *partially* *escape immunity* from vaccines and past infection, *the overall threat from Omicron variant is likely to be very significant.’ *_


 ... imagine getting damian13ster to defend the country or his own island. After his screaming analyses (OPM rights for him to defend, "his" proven science, then the predictions, etc), the white flag goes up.


----------



## Spudd

I thought this was a very good article about Omicron. It contains all the slides from the Ontario Science Table presentation showing the effect of Omicron in other countries. 




__





TVO | Current affairs, documentaries and education







www.tvo.org


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Yup......that is what they are talking about without actually saying the words.
> 
> I sensed some frustration at the press conference with Ontario's top doctors, when they say they are giving advice to the Ford government but it isn't always heeded. I think doctors and experts are getting tired of being the "fall guys" for governments failing to act.
> 
> They aren't going to give them political cover anymore.


 ... it doesn't help when you have a Dr. K. Moore, the province's chief "medical officer" either not listening to his own colleagues or too busy sucking up on/to the bureaucrats such as the MOH's head who in turn does the same with her boss.


----------



## Beaver101

Spudd said:


> I thought this was a very good article about Omicron. It contains all the slides from the Ontario Science Table presentation showing the effect of Omicron in other countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TVO | Current affairs, documentaries and education
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tvo.org


 ... keywords with Omicron = time is the essence. Or there's going to be a price to pay. 

And "father" Ford is still premier, presumably interested in another term.


----------



## damian13ster

Spudd said:


> I thought this was a very good article about Omicron. It contains all the slides from the Ontario Science Table presentation showing the effect of Omicron in other countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TVO | Current affairs, documentaries and education
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tvo.org


Out of all those countries, only in UK and Ontario is Omicron dominant. 
And the curves in the plots look fantastic with hospitalizations and ICU numbers flat or dropping despite massive rise in cases.
Rest of them (especially Germany, Netherlands, Denmark) have Delta wave. They wish they had omicron instead.

Curve for South Africa is slightly more worrying. 
Doctors came out though and said that average hospitalization length is 2-3 days vs ~9 for Delta so that is extremely encouraging, and also supported by 'in hospital deaths' being flat compared to previous waves.

Wonder where they got their "25% less severe than Delta" assumption for plots for Ontario projections


----------



## sags

Spudd said:


> I thought this was a very good article about Omicron. It contains all the slides from the Ontario Science Table presentation showing the effect of Omicron in other countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TVO | Current affairs, documentaries and education
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tvo.org


And there it all is.........Omicron is just as severe or possibly more severe than Delta and is spreading fast. It will soon become the dominant variant.

Interesting that they recommend marshalling all the therauputics to fight the virus in case of shortages.......hmm

They are no doubt talking to scientists around the world to find out what is happening, and they appear alarmed at what they are being told.

A worst case scenario involves the care givers getting sick and healthcare would be difficult to get.

I don't think we can overestimate the threat of the Omicron variant.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> *And there it all is.........Omicron is just as severe or possibly more severe than Delta* and is spreading fast. It will soon become the dominant variant.
> 
> Interesting that they recommend marshalling all the therauputics to fight the virus in case of shortages.


There is zero evidence for that and plenty to the contrary. You are lying


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> There is zero evidence for that and plenty to the contrary. You are lying


 ... and if sags turned out to be right, does this mean you're off this forum?


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> ... keywords with Omicron = time is the essence. Or there's going to be a price to pay.
> 
> And "father" Ford is still premier, presumably interested in another term.


Yup.......why is it that rapid testing is being made widely available in Toronto in libraries and all kinds of venues, including mobile trucks giving test kits away, and we can't even get any test kits ? It is because Ford has an election coming and he badly needs the votes in the Toronto area to win re-election.

Ford has been hoarding test kits for just this purpose and now he delivers them to where he needs the votes......just in time for Christmas gatherings in TO.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Yup.......why is it that rapid testing is being made widely available in Toronto in libraries and all kinds of venues, including mobile trucks giving test kits away, and we can't even get any test kits ? It is because Ford has an election coming and he badly needs the votes in the Toronto area to win re-election.


 ... here's the link to those free rapid testing:

Pop-up holiday schedule for rapid antigen tests

You can see it's all over the place of "Toronto" which includes Kingston, Newmarket, Peterborough , etc. as Toronto. I think these places are where most of the Omicron cases are found so urgency is needed there. Mind you this is the first distribution, right at the time of the announcement. More RT will be distributed elsewhere.

*



Rapid antigen tests for individuals

Click to expand...

*


> _Anyone without symptoms or who has not recently been in contact with someone with COVID-19covid 19 is eligible to receive a free take-home rapid antigen test kit from a pop-up site or get a free test performed on-site as part of the government’s holiday testing blitz. You do not need an appointment to access a pop-up site. _*However, access to rapid antigen tests will be subject to available supply. At sites distributing tests, there is a limit of one test kit per person.*


But then reading the underlined parts, I think these tests are as good as useless other than an opportunity to play doctor or scientist (damian13ster's favourte pastimes). So you test and it turns out positive (even false), then what? Isolate (and voluntarily so?) Oh, I see here's the next step if your RTest is found to be "positive":



> _Rapid antigen tests cannot diagnose COVID-19covid 19. Anyone who receives a package of tests to take home and gets a positive result must self-isolate and book a lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test at a testing site to confirm the result. Any location that performs on-site rapid antigen screening will also offer a confirmatory PCR test for individuals who receive a positive antigen result.
> 
> If you need a COVID-19covid 19 test because you have symptoms or have been exposed to someone with a confirmed case of COVID-19covid 19, find a testing location using the testing locations tool._


Bottomline: These freebies sound all hokey-pokey to me.



> Ford has been hoarding test kits for just this purpose and now he delivers them to where he needs the votes......just in time for Christmas gatherings in TO.


 ... I never thought of this but what you say here makes alot of sense from a political angle.


----------



## james4beach

The public still seems to have a hard time grasping that the proper way to act during surging transmission *is to avoid big groups of people*.

Vaccinations and rapid tests are great, but people are still continuing with stupid behaviours. Everywhere I look, I currently see:

packed restaurants and bars
gyms packed full of people with NO MASKS
offices doing holiday parties
people planning big parties with friends
people trying to visit / travel and see everyone they know
And I think many people are still planning to do Christmas gatherings and lots of socializing.

If people act this way, of course the Covid numbers are going to keep increasing.


----------



## damian13ster

People gave up joy, life, travel, christmas, socializing, fun for 2 years. 
Are you really surprised they aren't ready to give it up for rest of their lives? There will always be another variant. There will always be more fear-mongering. There will always be idiots in charge who want more power and more control.
Eventually you just have to go on with your life and enjoy it.


----------



## damian13ster

For anyone who thinks decisions in Canada are science based:

_The Globe and Mail_ this week asked the Public Health Agency of Canada to provide data to support the existing ban Canada has on inbound travel from six African countries where the Omicron variant first gained a rapid hold and was told that such data could not be provided as collection of random tests “is not designed to have sufficient statistical power to provide estimates of positivity rates by country of origin.”

Indeed, when Njoo was asked by reporters Wednesday about the scientific rationale to support the targeted travel ban aimed at those six countries, he could not.

“I’m not saying there’s a rationale one way or the other. We’re obviously monitoring the situation. We have, sort of, the data,” Dr. Njoo said.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> The public still seems to have a hard time grasping that the proper way to act during surging transmission *is to avoid big groups of people*.
> 
> Vaccinations and rapid tests are great, but people are still continuing with stupid behaviours. Everywhere I look, I currently see:
> 
> packed restaurants and bars
> gyms packed full of people with NO MASKS
> offices doing holiday parties
> people planning big parties with friends
> people trying to visit / travel and see everyone they know
> And I think many people are still planning to do Christmas gatherings and lots of socializing.
> 
> If people act this way, of course the Covid numbers are going to keep increasing.


 ... yep, this belongs to the group of people with the mindset of "what pandemic"?


----------



## Money172375

It’s surprising to me that after 2 years, that there are people on such opposite ends of the spectrum. Going to a Leafs game with 20,000 people, for hours, with strangers, no masks.
and yet others haven‘t physically seen their families at all.

we have a local magazine that’s produced 4 times a year. we Had a few people freak out on the editor this summer for publishing photos of people at an outdoor bbq or playing tennis.

each their own I guess. 

my Life is pretty normal….not much of a socializer. biggest impact to me is the constant fear of my parents getting sick and suffering alone.


----------



## MK7GTI

james4beach said:


> The public still seems to have a hard time grasping that the proper way to act during surging transmission *is to avoid big groups of people*.
> 
> Vaccinations and rapid tests are great, but people are still continuing with stupid behaviours. Everywhere I look, I currently see:
> 
> packed restaurants and bars
> gyms packed full of people with NO MASKS
> offices doing holiday parties
> people planning big parties with friends
> people trying to visit / travel and see everyone they know
> And I think many people are still planning to do Christmas gatherings and lots of socializing.
> 
> If people act this way, of course the Covid numbers are going to keep increasing.


And I can’t believe there are people like you that are surprised that people are moving on with their lives. At the end of the day, Covid is nothing more than a slightly worse than normal cold/flu. Nothing to be worried about.


----------



## sags

In the name of all that is holy.....what level of stupid does a person need to go to a gym with a bunch of strangers huffing and puffing into the air ?

Our son finally got our grandson a test. He finally got hold of a pharmacist at a Shoppers Drug Mart and she had a lengthy conversation with him. She told him the rapid tests are useless and told him to go to a certain Shoppers Drug Mart where he could get a PCR test and they could do it themselves in the parking lot and then hand it in to be sent to the lab. They drove over and did it in the parking lot.

I don't see that process advertised anywhere, so I wonder if it is just for "the special few" who know about it.

Now they wait for 24 hours for the results. Keep your rapid tests Dougie.........they are useless anyways, except for your political purposes.


----------



## damian13ster

To date, 37 states have reported Omicron cases. Of the 43 cases that the CDC has full details on, 33% had an international travel history. Nearly 80% were fully vaccinated, and 32% had a booster dose, though some of them had gotten the booster within 14 days of symptom onset. Fourteen percent had previous infections. 

For reference in US:
61.7% fully vaccinated
17% had a booster dose


----------



## james4beach

Chantal Hébert said this on _The National_ today, and I think she's spot on:

​_It's not just people's fatigue. It's also government's fatigue. *They thought they were home-safe to a point with vaccines.* Now, not only are they finding they are not, but I don't think they've gotten their minds completely around the reality of what's happening._​​
The reality... which people largely still don't grasp... is that vaccination is not enough on its own to let people safely return to normal activities. Many people have had a false sense of security.

At the very least, government has to impose restrictions on restaurants / bars / gyms and anywhere else where people don't wear masks. Personal gatherings should be explicitly capped at some number, to *clearly* communicate to people that they must not have large parties.

Covid is going to keep spreading among vaccinated people, and is going to make many vaccinated people sick. It's time to end this LAZY thinking that we just have to vaccinate people and otherwise pretend things are back to normal.

Get vaccinated, wear a good quality mask (KN95 or CAN95), avoid restaurants, don't have too many indoor gatherings and keep your gatherings small... and you'll be fine.


----------



## damian13ster

Huh, if only there was evidence since July that vaccines aren't as great as advertised.........who would have thought.
But you don't get to segregate and break human rights if you were to acknowledge that so that's a non-starter.

I get where you are coming from, but to what end? What's the idea to end the pandemic then? There will always be another variant. There will always be catchy headlines, fear-mongering. There will always be wannabe dictator who wants to divide, control, and gain more power.

There won't be anymore compliance to restrictions. People eventually will have enough. If giving up 2 years of our lives is not enough then what will be? Are you willing to do it for next 3, 5, 10, 50 years?

Risks aren't particularly high so it is time to acknowledge the risks, and individual should make a decision whether they want to stay in their basement, perhaps till the end of their lives, or do they want to go out and enjoy life knowing the potential risks.
That decision has to be educated though. So time to stop lying. Time to show actual data, actual statistics. Without creative accounting


----------



## sags

The vaccine was developed for the first virus, and we are fortunate that they had some protection against the Delta. Now we have the Omicron.

What we need is an Omicron specific vaccine, but the virus is mutating faster than we can develop a vaccine for it.

The most concerning fact is that there are billions of people in the world completely un-vaccinated and the virus will continue to spread among them and likely mutate again and again.

An iron fence around the wealthier nations won't stop the virus from coming. This is a global fight against a global pandemic.

We have to send more vaccines to poor countries. Politicians railing about the "cost" of the pandemic are missing the whole point.

We have no choice but to provide free vaccines, and financial support for people to stay home when needed. We have no other options.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I think wealthier nations can't even get their first step right in reducing this pandemic to an epidemic/endemic, let alone "ending" it. Far far far off.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> The vaccine was developed for the first virus, and we are fortunate that they had some protection against the Delta. Now we have the Omicron.
> 
> What we need is an Omicron specific vaccine, but the virus is mutating faster than we can develop a vaccine for it.
> 
> The most concerning fact is that there are billions of people in the world completely un-vaccinated and the virus will continue to spread among them and likely mutate again and again.
> 
> An iron fence around the wealthier nations won't stop the virus from coming. This is a global fight against a global pandemic.
> 
> We have to send more vaccines to poor countries. Politicians railing about the "cost" of the pandemic are missing the whole point.
> 
> We have no choice but to provide free vaccines, and financial support for people to stay home when needed. We have no other options.


Where is the dislike button?


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> Where is the dislike button?


 ... emoticon under the "Like" ... LMAO ... what's there to "dislike" or even "disagree" about sags' post? The vaccine ain't relevant to you, remember?


----------



## zinfit

Money172375 said:


> It’s surprising to me that after 2 years, that there are people on such opposite ends of the spectrum. Going to a Leafs game with 20,000 people, for hours, with strangers, no masks.
> and yet others haven‘t physically seen their families at all.
> 
> we have a local magazine that’s produced 4 times a year. we Had a few people freak out on the editor this summer for publishing photos of people at an outdoor bbq or playing tennis.
> 
> each their own I guess.
> 
> my Life is pretty normal….not much of a socializer. biggest impact to me is the constant fear of my parents getting sick and suffering alone.


Yes there is a big disconnect. Handwringing over cross border travel with the USA while 20,000 people attend hockey games in a indoor facility.


----------



## OptsyEagle

zinfit said:


> Yes there is a big disconnect. Handwringing over cross border travel with the USA while 20,000 people attend hockey games in a indoor facility.


I can sum up the observations that are perplexing many of us. This pandemic is out of control.

That is not to say that infections are running rampant and we are all about to die or anything dire like that. It is to say, that no one, and I mean no one, has a complete picture of what is truly going on. As I have argued here, for any point, anyone wants to make, they can easily find science to support their claim. Science to support both right and wrong claims. Think about that. We have all seen this play out many times, but in any event, I think we can agree that this is obviously going to create problems.

Add to that, every leader, in just about every part of the world has been wrong at least once and for many, quite a few times. Add to that, the millions of observations where this guy lived, this guy died, this guy infected that guy but did not infect that guy, and we have now arrived about where we are today. Nothing concrete to really base decisions on.

The pandemic is out of control and most decisions made today will take into account political ramifications as much or more then the health considerations. Not because our leaders do not care about the health of their constituents, but more because they have more certainty to the political fallout then they do with the health issues.

It is what it is. I hope that helps explain why we see these disparities in the decisions made and with the ones that will be made in the future. Remember politicians are just a reflection of the populations they govern and the world they live in.


----------



## zinfit

OptsyEagle said:


> I can sum up the observations that are perplexing many of us. This pandemic is out of control.
> 
> That is not to say that infections are running rampant and we are all about to die or anything dire like that. It is to say, that no one, and I mean no one, has a complete picture of what is truly going on. As I have argued here, for any point, anyone wants to make, they can easily find science to support their claim. Science to support both right and wrong claims. Think about that. We have all seen this play out many times, but in any event, I think we can agree that this is obviously going to create problems.
> 
> Add to that, every leader, in just about every part of the world has been wrong at least once and for many, quite a few times. Add to that, the millions of observations where this guy lived, this guy died, this guy infected that guy but did not infect that guy, and we have now arrived about where we are today. Nothing concrete to really base decisions on.
> 
> The pandemic is out of control and most decisions made today will take into account political ramifications as much or more then the health considerations. Not because our leaders do not care about the health of their constituents, but more because they have more certainty to the political fallout then they do with the health issues.
> 
> It is what it is. I hope that helps explain why we see these disparities in the decisions made and with the ones that will be made in the future. Remember politicians are just a reflection of the populations they govern and the world they live in.


Very accurate . These decisions have much more to do about political calculations and governments protecting their behinds. As a snowbird I find it offensive to be treated like a quasi-criminal when I return to Canada. Triple vaccinated ,a PCR test and a reliable tax payer all my life and never having been a burden on society. Friend are telling me that are being challenged on the test results they have and being warned about criminal charges and heavy fines.


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> What we need is an Omicron specific vaccine, but the virus is mutating faster than we can develop a vaccine for it.


So far Omicron has a 0% fatality rate (1 person has died but it has not been verified that they died FROM Omicron). We don't need a shot for something that so far that has proven to be very mild.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> So far Omicron has a 0% fatality rate (1 person has died but it has not been verified that they died FROM Omicron). We don't need a shot for something that so far that has proven to be very mild.


Yet the hospitals are filling up......


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> Yet the hospitals are filling up......


That's nothing new, they're almost always full and have been for decades.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> That's nothing new, they're almost always full and have been for decades.


No, they are not always full......and sure haven't been full for decades with a highly contagious and deadly virus .


----------



## Money172375

Part of the disconnect between places like Ontario and Florida is hospital capacity. From What I now, capacity in Florida is well beyond what we have in Ontario.

if we had 50% more hospital capacity, I’m pretty sure there would no restrictions and ”in your face” fear.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

james4beach said:


> The reality... which people largely still don't grasp... is that vaccination is not enough on its own to let people safely return to normal activities. Many people have had a false sense of security.


^This is key. People assume vaccines alone, or masks alone will protect them when in reality, its the combination of vaccines, masks, sanitizers and social distancing that will be more effective and give us a fighting chance.

My hope is that the variants mutate enough to lose their potency to a level that our natural antibodies can support and eventually have society live with.

Being pessimistic and complaining about human rights does absolutely nothing to combating the situation.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> Being pessimistic and complaining about human rights does absolutely nothing to combating the situation.


People were very quick to give away their rights over a virus with a 99% survival rate. Unfortunately, once a right is given away it's rarely given back.

Vaccine passports will never end, and eventually they will include other restrictions for things that the government says are emergencies. Like climate for example.

And some of you will bend over and comply no matter what they do.


----------



## sags

How long were you in a coma ?


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> How long were you in a coma ?


Are you referring to me? I predicted we would need government permission to participate in society back in spring 2020 when we were told that we just needed 2 weeks to slow the curve. I was right.

I understand that you're scared. It's just too bad that your fear and the fear of others has given the government the confidence to take away our rights. Much of that fear comes from government sponsored media that is blindly trusted no matter how much they lie.

The vaccine passport will never go away, and they will soon add other things to it. I guarantee that. Thanks to people like you who gave them tacit permission.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> In the name of all that is holy.....what level of stupid does a person need to go to a gym with a bunch of strangers huffing and puffing into the air ?
> 
> Our son finally got our grandson a test. He finally got hold of a pharmacist at a Shoppers Drug Mart and she had a lengthy conversation with him. She told him the rapid tests are useless and told him to go to a certain Shoppers Drug Mart where he could get a PCR test and they could do it themselves in the parking lot and then hand it in to be sent to the lab. They drove over and did it in the parking lot.
> 
> I don't see that process advertised anywhere, so I wonder if it is just for "the special few" who know about it.
> 
> Now they wait for 24 hours for the results. *Keep your rapid tests Dougie.........they are useless anyways, except for your political purposes.*


 ... makes alot of sense to get a "free" rapid test with a Omicron bonus. 

Crowds rush transit stations, LCBO outlets in ‘frustrating’ hunt for free rapid COVID-19 tests



> _ ... Shortly before noon, the LCBO began to tweet about stores that had run out of test supplies.
> 
> That was cold comfort for Helen Penfold, who told CP24 she stood outside a LCBO store at Yonge Street and Scrivener Square.
> 
> “I am 78-years-old and I have been in line for an hour and a half and the kits still aren’t here,” she said.
> 
> She said the staff were not sure when they’d get the tests.
> 
> At about 11 a.m., the tests finally reached the Scrivener Square LCBO. It took five minutes for supplies to run out. .._.


 ... I'm scratching my head - why does a 78 year old need a rapid test?

I think if Ford had any business (and health) acumens, he should be charging for those tests or putting a condition for its eligibility to prevent this kind of social madness for freebies amidst of a pandemic. Just assinined.


----------



## sags

Maybe just to go shopping for her food.

My wife checked the LCBO this morning and they don't have any tests yet.

The pop up vaccination clinic in the mall had a long, long lineup.

People are taking the increaseing wave of pandemic seriously, as they should.


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> ... makes alot of sense to get a "free" rapid test with a Omicron bonus.
> 
> Crowds rush transit stations, LCBO outlets in ‘frustrating’ hunt for free rapid COVID-19 tests
> 
> ... I'm scratching my head - why does a 78 year old need a rapid test?
> 
> I think if Ford had any business (and health) acumens, he should be charging for those tests or putting a condition for its eligibility to prevent this kind of social madness for freebies amidst of a pandemic. Just assinined.


This is the toilet paper scenario all over again. If people thought these tests were so important to their situation, they’d gladly pay $40 for them. It’s FOMO that’s driving this behaviour. It’s More about getting something for free and getting something that everybody else wants.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Watch tomorrow's reporting number will be 6,000+, after everyone got to play doctor with their rapid tests.


----------



## sags

All the vaccination and testing is sold out for weeks around here.

They are trying to ramp up with more clinics, but have nobody to staff them.

They are using medical, paramedic, dental, and pharmacy students and retirees to give the vaccine now.

As the government spokesperson said........_anyone who knows how to give a shot is needed._

The NDP asked Doug Ford.......why weren't you training people for the last 2 years ? It is a good question.

People could probably learn how to give a shot in a week or less. My wife learned by practicing on an orange in nursing college.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Money172375 said:


> This is the toilet paper scenario all over again. If people thought these tests were so important to their situation, they’d gladly pay $40 for them. It’s FOMO that’s driving this behaviour. It’s More about getting something for free and getting something that everybody else wants.


I have an idea, make them even more expensive and then only the rich can afford to go out.


----------



## Beaver101

Ford government considering capacity restrictions, gathering limits due to Omicron spread

Last Updated (today) Friday, December 17, 2021 12:57PM EST and Ford is "_considering reducing capacity limits to 25 per cent in some sectors and lowering the maximum allowable social gathering size from 25 to 10 indoors._" with the questions of "when? and is this a joke?".


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> People were very quick to give away their rights over a virus with a 99% survival rate. Unfortunately, once a right is given away it's rarely given back.
> 
> Vaccine passports will never end, and eventually they will include other restrictions for things that the government says are emergencies. Like climate for example.
> 
> And some of you will bend over and comply no matter what they do.


Lets assume your 99% is accurate....are you fine with wiping out over 80 million people and not even attempt to save any? What if your scientific, survival rate, stat decreases as time goes on. At what point will you stop with these idiotic philosophies of government control?


----------



## OptsyEagle

I don't think the problem is actually the 80 million dead people, although I will not come off as overly caring by saying that. The problem today is more that those people refuse to die at home. They tend to try to survive by rushing themselves to the hospital. They then take up incredible healthcare resources, that then cannot be used for anyone else, for very, very long periods of time...and then they die.

Once we can get their "rate of death" down to a level that our hospitals can handle, I am more then willing to return their so called "basic human rights" to die into their own decision making hands.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> Lets assume your 99% is accurate....are you fine with wiping out over 80 million people and not even attempt to save any? What if your scientific, survival rate, stat decreases as time goes on. At what point will you stop with these idiotic philosophies of government control?


So you think that the only option that allows people to keep their rights means that 80 million people have to die?

Had care homes been locked down and at risk people exercised more caution at the beginning the vast majority of deaths would have been prevented. But that was never an option considered by the government.

The only option that the government chose was lockdowns and a vaccine. It's been almost 2 years and they still refuse to even consider basic treatments that would minimize severity and prevent hospitalizations.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I can't wait for sags to comment on the above unbelievably farcial response.

Actually, the one that sags asked "how long were you in a coma?" is quite appropriate.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> Very accurate . These decisions have much more to do about political calculations and governments protecting their behinds. As a snowbird I find it offensive to be treated like a quasi-criminal when I return to Canada. Triple vaccinated ,a PCR test and a reliable tax payer all my life and never having been a burden on society. Friend are telling me that are being challenged on the test results they have and being warned about criminal charges and heavy fines.


I sympathize with this concern, and was about to travel to the US myself (I had booked a trip for two weeks ago, but cancelled).

On one hand, you're absolutely right. There isn't evidence that Canadians returning from the US are bringing covid. The vaccination + PCR test restrictions appear to work extremely well. The PHAC recently released a report that only 0.14% of vaccinated arrivals into Canada, who came with valid PCR tests, then tested positive upon arrival. That's basically nil.

On the other hand -- we're in a public health catastrophe here, with the hospitals overloaded. It's going to get worse in the coming weeks. From a public health perspective, this is really really bad, and hospitals are about to get the sh*t kicked out of them. As a result our society has no choice but to reduce risks wherever we can control them. Our medical workers all have burnout and quite a few have PTSD. They can't keep doing this.

It's unfortunate that the border officials are grumpy about the foreign arrivals, but also remember that they are working on the front lines as potentially infected people come into our country, adding to an already very bad situation. And I'm sure they DO see travellers trying to come into Canada with crappy rapid tests (which are nowhere near as accurate as PCR) so they've probably been instructed to carefully check that the tests are PCR / NAT / NAAT.

I can see both sites of this zinfit. And I say that as a guy who was within 24 hours of departing to the warm south. In my opinion, flying back and forth would have been safe. I cancelled my trip at the very last moment; I've never done that before in my life. I may or may not get back my $700 from Air Canada.


----------



## damian13ster

What will add to the problem is that flu-vaccine makers completely missed it this year. It provides zero protection because they created one for wrong strain, while different one is circulation. Those are always hit or miss, and this year they missed by a mile.

This pandemic is over though - they can shove restrictions up their asses. 2 years was enough, they didn't get it right, they destroyed lives, they killed people, and they have no plan to get out of it. People aren't going to go along with this for rest of their livetimes.


----------



## Money172375

Further restrictions coming in Ontario any time now.

sources say:

social gatherings limited to 10. Somehow still allow 10,000 at Leafs games
no food or drink allowed at NHL/NBA games
restricted hours at restaurants at bars

the limit of 10 will be widely ignored given Christmas is coming. Maybe a 2 day exemption on Dec 24/25 should be considered. 

expecting 6000 cases a day by Monday. Was 1200 cases two days ago.


----------



## james4beach

Heads up to BC residents, in 15 minutes the Public Health officials have updates and announcements -- likely with new restrictions.

As they should. Everywhere I look, people are behaving like idiots here. Bars and restaurants are packed. Everyone is doing big social gatherings. Insanity.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> Further restrictions coming in Ontario any time now.
> 
> sources say:
> 
> social gatherings limited to 10. Somehow still allow 10,000 at Leafs games
> no food or drink allowed at NHL/NBA games
> restricted hours at restaurants at bars
> 
> the limit of 10 will be widely ignored given Christmas is coming. Maybe a 2 day exemption on Dec 24/25 should be considered.
> 
> expecting 6000 cases a day by Monday. Was 1200 cases two days ago.


 ... just saw this, sound familiar?

Ministry of Labour to conduct COVID-19 inspection blitz at Ontario businesses Saturday

Okay, further "details" on Money's announcement from above:

Ford government will lower capacity and gathering limits as of Sunday, order bars and restaurants to close by 11 p.m. each night

I don't think it's enough without the concurrent business blitz. Let's see how successful Ford's "plan" is this time.

The specifics (for Ontario):

Ontario's new capacity and gathering limits: what you need to know



> _Published Friday, December 17, 2021 4:33PM EST
> The Ontario government has announced the return of capacity and social gathering limits as it attempts to blunt rising COVID-19 cases and the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant.
> 
> Here are the restrictions outlined by the province that will be in effect starting on Sunday, Dec. 19, 2021:
> 
> *SOCIAL GATHERINGS*_
> 
> 
> _Indoor social gatherings will be limited to 10 people_
> _Outdoor social gatherings will be capped at 25 people_
> _*CAPACITY LIMITS*
> The following indoor settings will only be allowed to operate at 50 per cent capacity:_
> 
> _Restaurants, bars and other food or drink establishments and strip clubs_
> _Personal care services_
> _Personal physical fitness trainers_
> _Retailers (including grocery stores and pharmacies)_
> _Shopping malls_
> _Gyms and other non-spectator areas of facilities used for sports and recreational fitness activities_
> _Indoor recreational amenities_
> _Indoor clubhouses at outdoor recreational amenities_
> _Tour and guide services_
> _Photography studios and services_
> _Marinas and boating clubs_
> _*ALSO: *Businesses or facilities will also need to post a sign stating the capacity limits that are permitted in the establishment.
> 
> *EXCEPTIONS:* Any portion of a business or place that is being used for a wedding, a funeral or a religious service, rite, or ceremony.
> 
> *FOR RESTAURANTS, BARS, OTHER FOOD AND DRINK ESTABLISHMENTS, MEETING, EVENT SPACES AND STRIP CLUBS:*_
> 
> _10 patrons permitted per table, and patrons will be required to remain seated_
> _Required to close by 11 p.m.; takeout and delivery permitted beyond 11 p.m._
> _Dancing will not be allowed except for workers or performers_
> _Sale of alcohol will be restricted after 10 p.m.; consumption of alcohol in businesses or settings will be prohibited after 11 p.m._
> _*FOR SPORTING EVENTS, CONCERT VENUES, THEATERS, CINEMAS, CASINOS AND OTHER LARGE INDOOR SETTINGS:*
> Capacity at large indoor facilities like sporting arenas, concert venues and others that can hold more than 1,000 people have been lowered to 50 per cent.
> In addition, the province has announced that *food and drink services at these settings will be prohibited. *_


 ... the "Social Gatherings" indoor and outdoor is a joke. Like people is gonna to listen to father Ford (aka the Gestapo police to anti-vaxxers and their wannabees).


----------



## Beaver101

Ford says ‘too soon’ to say what learning at Ontario schools will look like in the new year

Where's Lecce? Is he still on the payroll or is Ford now wearing the Minister of Education hat also?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> So you think that the only option that allows people to keep their rights means that 80 million people have to die?
> 
> Had care homes been locked down and at risk people exercised more caution at the beginning the vast majority of deaths would have been prevented. But that was never an option considered by the government.
> 
> The only option that the government chose was lockdowns and a vaccine. It's been almost 2 years and they still refuse to even consider basic treatments that would minimize severity and prevent hospitalizations.


Do you actually understand what you post??

So tell me about these 'care homes'......we can lock them down without stripping the elders of their rights? How does that work? So we can lock-down the care homes......but not good that government chose lockdowns?

Is there an ID people carry that indicates those "at risk" and those that are not?

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️


----------



## sags

HappilyRetired said:


> So you think that the only option that allows people to keep their rights means that 80 million people have to die?
> 
> Had care homes been locked down and at risk people exercised more caution at the beginning the vast majority of deaths would have been prevented. But that was never an option considered by the government.
> 
> The only option that the government chose was lockdowns and a vaccine. It's been almost 2 years and they still refuse to even consider basic treatments that would minimize severity and prevent hospitalizations.


Good Lord man..........Doug Ford put an iron ring around LTC homes for goodness sakes,.......an iron ring.


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> ... just saw this, sound familiar?
> 
> Ministry of Labour to conduct COVID-19 inspection blitz at Ontario businesses Saturday
> 
> Okay, further "details" on Money's announcement from above:
> 
> Ford government will lower capacity and gathering limits as of Sunday, order bars and restaurants to close by 11 p.m. each night
> 
> I don't think it's enough without the concurrent business blitz. Let's see how successful Ford's "plan" is this time.
> 
> The specifics (for Ontario):
> 
> Ontario's new capacity and gathering limits: what you need to know
> 
> ... the "Social Gatherings" indoor and outdoor is a joke. Like people is gonna to listen to father Ford (aka the Gestapo police to anti-vaxxers and their wannabees).


I’m guessing further restrictions to come after Christmas.


----------



## sags

Not good news.......

A UK study by Oxford University finds that there is no evidence that Omicron symptoms will be less severe than Delta.

Be safe folks.........take all the precautions you can. The hospital or ICU is no place to spend the Christmas holidays.









No evidence that Covid omicron variant is less severe than delta, UK study says


The study estimates that the risk of reinfection with the omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the delta variant.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Not good news.......
> 
> A UK study by Oxford University finds that there is no evidence that Omicron symptoms will be less severe than Delta.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No evidence that Covid omicron variant is less severe than delta, UK study says
> 
> 
> The study estimates that the risk of reinfection with the omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the delta variant.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com


Yeah, they don't have enough Omicron cases in hospital to gather data 

Luckily South Africa had enough:
91% decrease in hospitalizations compared to Delta


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> Not good news.......
> 
> A UK study by Oxford University finds that there is no evidence that Omicron symptoms will be less severe than Delta.
> 
> Be safe folks.........take all the precautions you can. The hospital or ICU is no place to spend the Christmas holidays.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No evidence that Covid omicron variant is less severe than delta, UK study says
> 
> 
> The study estimates that the risk of reinfection with the omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the delta variant.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com


I promise I will take every precaution possible.
And then mix it with alcohol.
And friends.
And family.
And strangers.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> I promise I will take every precaution possible.
> And then mix it with alcohol.
> And friends.
> And family.
> And strangers.


It's certainly possible to see family and friends in a safe way. Keeping the gatherings reasonably small, having some ventilation / open window, etc.


----------



## diharv

No windows open when its -20C up here.


----------



## james4beach

diharv said:


> No windows open when its -20C up here.


Then it's probably worth grabbing a HEPA filter and running it indoors while you have guests over.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Yeah, they don't have enough Omicron cases in hospital to gather data
> 
> Luckily South Africa had enough:
> 91% decrease in hospitalizations compared to Delta


 ... cheers, cheers, cheers, cheers ... move there then if you're so happy with their data and the "science" and our crappy government.


----------



## sags

A CBC health reporter announced on Twitter she got the Omicron variant. She has no idea how or where she got it.

She is young and healthy, but said she has been sick for a week. Chills, fever, body aches, fatigue........are her symptoms.

She wonders how her parents would hold up if they got it. 

Point is.........she said the symptoms are not "mild" and it isn't like a "touch of the flu". She is sick........and she feels it.

I think we can dispense with the idea that Omicron is no big deal. It may make some people very sick......but hopefully they survive.


----------



## OptsyEagle

The last time I had a harmless, but severe cold, I felt pretty sick as well. AT times, I almost begged for the sweet release of death, if you know what I mean. That post above tells us nothing.

Listen people right now all this board is doing is arguing about whose guess is going to be right. That is all we can argue about since it is too early to know for sure. Let's not spend so much time on trying to guess right but spend more time on trying to be right. Omicron could be our pandemic savior or our worst nightmare. Only time will tell and I doubt it will be much more time to start to get a good picture of what is happening. As always, however, the actual useful observations will be masked inside a clutter of garbage.

To focus on the problem we need first to understand and remember what the problem really is. With Delta it came down to whether or not infections, leading to severe outcomes was going to happen at such a rate that it overwhelmed our hospitals. That was it. I know there are a lot of issues that play into that, but that was our only remaining problem...at least with Delta.

With Omicron we know this sucker is infectious. I mean it looks like it will leave the chicken pox in its dust when the final measurements are tallied. We also know that 2 doses of vaccine does not stop infections. Omicron laughs at the vaccine. OK, Damian, we get that. It looks like 3 doses will help but not solve the problem entirely and we don't know for how long. What we don't know yet, is what happens AFTER infection, for people with 2 doses and people with no doses. Initial signs look good, but a virus as infectious as Omicron is going to create a tremendous number of benign infections, that can mask the fewer (as a percentage of all infections) number of severe ones. Now when you factor in the massively increased infection rate, the reduced protection from infection our vaccines provide and super impose that over our less then healthy population, you have to assume you are going to have some nasty fallout, with quite a few people going to the hospital. That does not mean the virus is more severe then Delta but it ends up with the same problem, but knowing the difference will help you protect yourself.

So what I am saying is we need to focus on whether the nasty fallout is more from the increased infections or from the virus itself or from both. That will help us understand what we can do about it. We also need to know how the vaccines work or not work. So far it looks like they will still protect from severe disease, but we need to know that. It might be that the vaccines we have are not needed at all and that is why it looks like they are working. You see what I mean. These are distinctions we need to figure out.

So we need to stop the guessing game and start focusing on facts that relate to the real problem. Let's stop talking about infections except how they ACTUALLY relate to severe outcomes, and not how sick a person feels, but if it sends them to the hospital or kills them. We are all going to get infected. This sucker looks like if you need to breathe air you are going to get infected. You are not going to avoid it, but it could also be as harmless as everything else in the air you breathe. So let's keep our eyes open and find out.


----------



## MK7GTI

sags said:


> A CBC health reporter announced on Twitter she got the Omicron variant. She has no idea how or where she got it.
> 
> She is young and healthy, but said she has been sick for a week. Chills, fever, body aches, fatigue........are her symptoms.
> 
> She wonders how her parents would hold up if they got it.
> 
> Point is.........she said the symptoms are not "mild" and it isn't like a "touch of the flu". She is sick........and she feels it.
> 
> I think we can dispense with the idea that Omicron is no big deal. It may make some people very sick......but hopefully they survive.


Yeah let’s completely change our thoughts based on one girls thoughts. Great idea.


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> A CBC health reporter announced on Twitter she got the Omicron variant. She has no idea how or where she got it.
> 
> She is young and healthy, but said she has been sick for a week. Chills, fever, body aches, fatigue........are her symptoms.
> 
> She wonders how her parents would hold up if they got it.
> 
> Point is.........she said the symptoms are not "mild" and it isn't like a "touch of the flu". She is sick........and she feels it.
> 
> I think we can dispense with the idea that Omicron is no big deal. It may make some people very sick......but hopefully they survive.


The symptoms are exactly like the flu. She survived and spent 0 days in the hospital. This is good news, not bad news.

I repeat...a mild version of the virus that has a near 0% fatality rate really upsets a lot of people. Covid has become the new religion to some.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> A CBC health reporter announced on Twitter she got the Omicron variant. She has no idea how or where she got it.
> 
> She is young and healthy, but said she has been sick for a week. Chills, fever, body aches, fatigue........are her symptoms.
> 
> She wonders how her parents would hold up if they got it.
> 
> Point is.........she said the symptoms are not "mild" and it isn't like a "touch of the flu". She is sick........and she feels it.
> 
> I think we can dispense with the idea that Omicron is no big deal. It may make some people very sick......but hopefully they survive.


What you described are exactly symptoms of common cold: chills, fever, body aches, fatigue.

Exact symptoms of common cold


----------



## sags

That is what some people said at the start of this thread and here we are 377 pages and several mutations later.


----------



## sags

Maybe the Omicron will be less severe or maybe not. Maybe the Omicron will eliminate the Delta or maybe not.

Maybe there will be another mutation announced today, tomorrow, or in the future, or maybe not.

We don't know........so we have to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Denying any of the possibilities isn't an option.

What we do know for a fact is that the covid virus isn't a seasonal flu, herd immunity doesn't work, vaccinations provide some level of protection, infection doesn't provide "natural immunity", and the virus can and does mutate rapidly if it continues to spread unabated.

That knowledge is now our baseline of understanding and must influence how we plan ahead.

We won't be going back to "it is just a seasonal flu" again.


----------



## zinfit

Money172375 said:


> Part of the disconnect between places like Ontario and Florida is hospital capacity. From What I now, capacity in Florida is well beyond what we have in Ontario.
> 
> if we had 50% more hospital capacity, I’m pretty sure there would no restrictions and ”in your face” fear.


I winter a Texas county with a population of 1 million. During their Covid peak they had about 400 in ICUs. Alberta was at 280 this September and they were a few short of capacity .Alberta has a population a little over 4 million. Clearly we don't have the capacity needed to deal with a giant spike of cases. The US dispite its defects does have much larger ICU capacity.


----------



## Money172375

zinfit said:


> I winter a Texas county with a population of 1 million. During their Covid peak they had about 400 in ICUs. Alberta was at 280 this September and they were a few short of capacity .Alberta has a population a little over 4 million. Clearly we don't have the capacity needed to deal with a giant spike of cases. The US dispite its defects does have much larger ICU capacity.


And that’s what this has always been about, but not deeply discussed by most in conversation or by the media.

Not hearing ”everyone will get COVID eventually”…….but that’s a likely scenario. With limited icu capacity, all we’re aiming to do is slow the line to the hospital and await better treatments. States or countries with large icu capacity have tacitly said “live life as normal” cause they know there is no stopping it, and they can handle the few people who have poor symptoms.


----------



## OptsyEagle

As I mentioned upthread, the problem at least with Delta, was not the severity of the virus or the number of people getting infected, but was more that the rate of infections that resulted in hospitalizations was too high and hence we needed to respond to that to allow our hospitals to remain operational.

I agree that one way to deal with this is simply to expand our ICU capacity. I know that sounds cold, since the people going to those ICUs are in dire straits and one would think that some other solution would be more preferred. Since there really was only one "other solution", that being vaccination, and quite a few of our citizen's decided not to help out with this problem and get vaccinated themselves, I see no moral problem with implementing "plan B", where we simply expand the capacity of our hospitals to accommodate those citizen's not willing to do their part and vaccinate.

Now how easily expanding ICU capacity can be done and at what financial cost, etc., I don't know, but it seems to me that ICU capacity really did become an area that required some level of focus, if we could just move on from the moral aspect of watching people get very sick and die...even if it was their basic human right to do.


----------



## HappilyRetired

People are allowed to get obese and die, if they want to avoid a new shot with unproven long term effects, that's their right too.


----------



## sags

Yea the US is doing great........800,000 deaths from covid compared to Canada's 30,000 deaths.

On a per capital basis the US has almost 3 times more deaths than Canada.









U.S. leads world at 800K COVID-19 deaths. Here's how Canada ranks


The U.S. passed a grim milestone on Tuesday, with more than 800,000 COVID-19 related deaths now reported in the country. Canada, meanwhile has seen 30,022 fatalities linked to the virus, and sits behind several other countries when it comes to coronavirus deaths




www.ctvnews.ca





Canada has had 1.8 million infections. The US has had 50 million infections. A 10 times larger population and a 30 times higher rate of infections.









Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center


How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.




coronavirus.jhu.edu





I think the anti-Trudeau covid response crusade fizzled out awhile ago.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Many US states count dying with Covid exactly the same as dying of Covid. Apple to oranges. This is well known and readily available with a minimum of research. Die of stage 4 cancer but test positive for Covid? That's a Covid death.


----------



## sags

Wrong......the doctors know the side effects of covid and give people all kinds of medications, including blood thinners, oxygen, steroids, pain killers, to ease whatever symptoms the sick display on an individual basis.

The treatment isn't where we want it to be, but it is a lot better than it was when covid burst on to the scene and doctors had no idea what to expect.


----------



## OptsyEagle

HappilyRetired said:


> People are allowed to get obese and die, if they want to avoid a new shot with unproven long term effects, that's their right too.


You missed the point. The obese are not causing others a problem. The unvaccinated are. That is the point that gets lost in this "basic human rights" debate. Whose basic human rights?

As I said, I agree that the perfect solution is to allow each person to make their own decisions and have that person alone pay any price for them. Unfortuneately, that is not possible at this time so that is why we had to put this human rights decision aside.

Anyway, I know your opinion on the matter and you know mine and I don't think the board needs it rehashed again for the 1000th time.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> People are allowed to get obese and die, if they want to avoid a new shot with unproven long term effects, that's their right too.


Here we go again with long term effects analogy.
Care to share some long term effect studies on other vaccines that went horribly wrong ??


----------



## HappilyRetired

OptsyEagle said:


> You missed the point. The obese are not causing others a problem. The unvaccinated are. That is the point that gets lost in this "basic human rights" debate. Whose basic human rights?
> 
> As I said, I agree that the perfect solution is to allow each person to make their own decisions and have that person alone pay any price for them. Unfortuneately, that is not possible at this time so that is why we had to put this human rights decision aside.
> 
> Anyway, I know your opinion on the matter and you know mine and I don't think the board needs it rehashed again for the 1000th time.


We've known about Covid for almost 2 years. The government has not taken steps to increase hospital capacity, either by design or by incompetence, so the only remaining option is to take away our rights.


----------



## Beaver101

Netherlands 'going into lockdown again' to curb omicron

I give Ford the end of this month when a real circuit breaker (aka lockdown) goes into effect.


----------



## like_to_retire

OptsyEagle said:


> You missed the point. The obese are not causing others a problem. The unvaccinated are. That is the point that gets lost in this "basic human rights" debate. Whose basic human rights?
> 
> As I said, I agree that the perfect solution is to allow each person to make their own decisions and have that person alone pay any price for them. Unfortunately, that is not possible at this time so that is why we had to put this human rights decision aside.


Yes, as always, OptsyEagle you are right on. 

To me, it's a civic duty to get vaccinated because it's for the collective good. Simple as that.

ltr


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> We've known about Covid for almost 2 years. The government has not taken steps to increase hospital capacity, either by design or by incompetence, so the only remaining option is to take away our rights.


why did you not volunteer at the hospital?


----------



## MK7GTI

like_to_retire said:


> Yes, as always, OptsyEagle you are right on.
> 
> To me, it's a civic duty to get vaccinated because it's for the collective good. Simple as that.
> 
> ltr


It’s not a civic duty no matter how much you want it to be. Get over it and move on.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MK7GTI said:


> It’s not a civic duty no matter how much you want it to be. Get over it and move on.


Unfortuneately it was their civic duty.

I will admit the majority that vaccinated did it to protect themselves, but even if they were not concerned about the virus, the right thing to do was still to vaccinate. Obviously the unvaccinated did not see it that way. That does not change what they should have done. As for the ones that thought the risks of the vaccine was greater then the risks of covid to society, they needed to put aside their personal bias and just look at the unvaccinated people Alberta was forced to air lift all the way to Ontario to save their lives.

Since I figure that there was no way they could have missed that observation I have to believe that they so desperately wanted to believe they were right, to refuse the vaccine, that nothing ever was going to break through that stubbornness. I do want to point out that they will find out that refusing to change one's mind when faced with the overwhelming fact that you are wrong, will cause so many hardships in the future, it will render what has happened to you with the covid pandemic, basically a walk in the park. This should be a learning lesson for them but I fear that the remaining holdouts, at this point, will not garner any benefit from their experience at all. It is quite sad. Going through life and not learning from mistakes must be very frustrating indeed.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> You missed the point. The obese are not causing others a problem. The unvaccinated are. That is the point that gets lost in this "basic human rights" debate. Whose basic human rights?
> 
> As I said, I agree that the perfect solution is to allow each person to make their own decisions and have that person alone pay any price for them. Unfortuneately, that is not possible at this time so that is why we had to put this human rights decision aside.
> 
> Anyway, I know your opinion on the matter and you know mine and I don't think the board needs it rehashed again for the 1000th time.


They don't. Vaccinated infect other people. Vaccinated do get infected.
At what level of protection are you justified in violating human rights? 1%? 5%? 10%?
At what percentage will you just start concentration camps? At what percentage will that be justified?

There is a reason it's not called 'human priveledges'
It is called human RIGHTS.

You having a temper tantrum because someone doesn't make same choices you do doesn't justify breaking of human rights.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> They don't. Vaccinated infect other people. Vaccinated do get infected.
> At what level of protection are you justified in violating human rights? 1%? 5%? 10%?
> At what percentage will you just start concentration camps? At what percentage will that be justified?
> 
> There is a reason it's not called 'human priveledges'
> It is called human RIGHTS.
> 
> You having a temper tantrum because someone doesn't make same choices you do doesn't justify breaking of human rights.



Look, as we have seen here on this board, for the last 100 pages or so, you can distract the argument from the main point until the other party gives up. That does not make you right.

My point is simple. Do what society asks of you and no one will violate any of your rights. When you don't life is going to get problematic for you.

This issue has nothing to do with infections even if someone uses the term to justify a rule or two. No one can do much more then "try their best" when attempting to not infect someone else. It is not the vaccinated's fault who they infect. They did everything asked of them. It is the fault of the unvaccinated, however, when the Alberta hospitals had to shut down due to being overwhelmed with Covid admissions, primarily unvaccinated. All the unvaccinated needed to do to help stop that was to vaccinate. At this stage of the vaccination program, with all the safety data we currently have, that was very little to ask of a citizen, but still they declined to help. That is my point.

Because of that our political system has decided to set aside the issue of human rights for these unhelpful citizen's we have in our communities. The best way to look at it is a simple time out. Both sides will get over it, but it is what it is. They really should learn from it. As for the employment issues; that has a lot more to it but in the end, there is a simple fix for anyone caught in the middle of that mess, as well.


----------



## OptsyEagle

By the way. We do actually have a few heroes in our communities. About 2 months ago I was updating this board on the number of people living in Ontario, who were age 50 or older and still unvaccinated. That number was around 450,000 people. Today that number is only 280,000. That means we have 170,000 heroes living amongst us.

I call them heroes because they are very different then the other 10 or 11 million people who also vaccinated, of which I am included. Myself and 10s of millions more vaccinated primarily because it was obvious that the risks of covid were higher then the risks of the vaccine. It was available and it was free, so why would I not vaccinate and protect myself? That had nothing to do with civic duty and I deserve no merit badge or honours. Since I did vaccinate we can never be sure how far my civic duty would have played out but I am pretty sure I would have vaccinated anyway, even if I did not think I needed it personally...just to help the hospitals stay running, if I could not find any other reason.

But those 170,000 people who vaccinated between October 2021 and now are heroes. I have no doubt they did not want to do it, but they did it anyway. Most were probably coerced due to the vaccinated passports and pressure at work, but all the same they, they were asked to help and they did. I think they're heroes.

You know what I think of the other 280,000 and all the rest younger then age 50. Perhaps the younger ones were not causing a big problem to the hospitals personally but they were not helping to keep the older ones out, and again, they were asked to help out and they said no.


----------



## HappilyRetired

You're weren't a hero if you get the shot early. You were a guinea pig.


----------



## OptsyEagle

HappilyRetired said:


> You're weren't a hero if you get the shot early. You were a guinea pig.


Perhaps. I am not criticizing the delayers. I am criticizing the refusers.

Remember vaccine passports did not come about in December of 2020, when the vaccines first hit the market. They came about after everyone had a chance to vaccinate and could see the safety and efficacy of the drug. At this point in time it is pure stubbornness accompanied by a total lack of compassion for their fellow citizens to not get vaccinated.

Lastly, I am not advocating the stripping down of each unvaccinated person in the center of town and tar and feathering them. I just want them to know what others truly think of them. They let us down when we needed them the most. Yes, we did listen to their reasons, and we tried to see some validity to their points, but when faced with the grave issues surrounding our hospitals, we concluded that their reasons were not sufficient to remain unvaccinated. 

Hence the time out ... or what we call vaccine passports. It too will pass. I have been disappointed in a lot of people in life, many I still call my friends today.


----------



## KaeJS

OptsyEagle said:


> My point is simple. Do what society asks of you and no one will violate any of your rights. When you don't life is going to get problematic for you.


This is so wrong.

This is akin to your boss saying "Don't like it? There's the door."

Or your partner saying to you "Then go find someone else."

Do this, or else.


----------



## kcowan2000

While I am triple vaxed, with my federal passport, I am sympathetic to the conscientious objectors.


----------



## damian13ster

KaeJS said:


> This is so wrong.
> 
> This is akin to your boss saying "Don't like it? There's the door."
> 
> Or your partner saying to you "Then go find someone else."
> 
> Do this, or else.


I know. I simply don't understand that. 
We see who would be the first to line up to lead people to gas chambers - after all they simply had to do or become what society asked them to do.
I can't wrap my head around such thinking. It is absolutely ridiculous and outrageous.

But yet again, majority of people will kill another without asking for a reason if asked to do so by position of authority - this has been proven through sociological studies so guess it is my fault for still being surprised


----------



## OptsyEagle

KaeJS said:


> This is so wrong.
> 
> This is akin to your boss saying "Don't like it? There's the door."
> 
> Or your partner saying to you "Then go find someone else."
> 
> Do this, or else.


In a perfect world I would agree with you but I am forced to compare the benign issues surrounding vaccination compared to the dire outcomes for our hospitals if one decides to abstain from it.

I am not going to delve into the issues surrounding employment and vaccine mandates, and I even agree the vaccine passports don't make much sense with respect to science. I am just saying that asking a person to take a vaccine, that has been successfully used by billions of people and monitored by almost as many, so as to protect the healthcare system for all, was very little to ask. To assume we would just take a thumbs down answer on that and then applaud you for standing up for your rights is naïve. On another cause maybe but not one as important as this or being turned down by so few.


----------



## sags

kcowan2000 said:


> While I am triple vaxed, with my federal passport, I am sympathetic to the conscientious objectors.


Understandable and reasonable in normal circumstances.......but I bet you don't want to invite them over for dinner.

Therein lies the problem. We don't know who they are and would prefer not to have them close to us.

But how do we manage that risk without mandatory vaccination some places where people must go such as work ?

In our city, some vaccinated city workers are refusing to work in trucks beside coworkers who refuse to prove they are vaccinated.

The city and union are trying to sort it out...but one side or the other isn't going to be happy.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> I know. I simply don't understand that.
> We see who would be the first to line up to lead people to gas chambers - after all they simply had to do or become what society asked them to do.
> I can't wrap my head around such thinking. It is absolutely ridiculous and outrageous.
> 
> But yet again, majority of people will kill another without asking for a reason if asked to do so by position of authority - this has been proven through sociological studies so guess it is my fault for still being surprised


Again you miss the point. We do have a reason. Save our healthcare system.

My argument does not surround blindly following government rules. It has to do with social duty to your fellow Canadians. We needed these people to help to protect our hospitals, and they let us down by saying no.

Even with that decision we are not gassing them in a death chamber. We gave them a time out with a vaccine passport. As for employment mandates, that is such a large issue I will stay out of it. You really don't want my opinion on that one.

My sole purpose of these posts is to ensure that these people understand what their vaccinated friends, family and co-workers truly think about their decision. Most will probably listen to their reasons, some may even make some comment about standing up for their rights, but in the end, they definitely don't agree with the decision and most will feel you let the country down...because you did. But it's done. So lets all move on. I just want to make sure we don't put them in the same human rights category as Martin Luther King. That was becoming a bit nauseating.


----------



## sags

I never had much sympathy for draft dodgers during wars either.

They can object all they want, but someone else has to take their place.

The real heroes run towards the danger, while the cowards run away.

People volunteering to work in vaccination clinics are the real heroes. People who refuse the vaccination are the cowards.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> You're weren't a hero if you get the shot early. You were a guinea pig.


I guess all the soldiers who fought for the country you comfortably live in were guinea pigs?


----------



## MK7GTI

Mortgage u/w said:


> I guess all the soldiers who fought for the country you comfortably live in were guinea pigs?


Not in the least a comparable argument.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Let's not start aligning vaccination with risking one's life fighting for your country. The social duty part of it might have some similarities but almost nothing else about it does.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> I guess all the soldiers who fought for the country you comfortably live in were guinea pigs?


Soldiers fought for our freedom. One of those freedoms that they died for is being taken away.

The fact that you compare the two situations is ridiculous. You should be embarrassed that you are so uninformed.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> *Soldiers fought for our freedom. One of those freedoms that they died for is being taken away.*
> 
> The fact that you compare the two situations is ridiculous. You should be embarrassed that you are so uninformed.


 ... and just what's that "(one) freedom"?


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... and just what's that "(one) freedom"?


If you don't know, you don't deserve it and probably won't miss it.


----------



## Beaver101

KaeJS said:


> This is so wrong.
> 
> This is akin to your boss saying "Don't like it? There's the door."


 ... if your boss was professional enough, he wouldn't say it as bluntly as you would have said it.



> Or your partner saying to you "Then go find someone else."


 ... yah, that's why divorce rates are sky high.

And as for the boy-girl-boy/boy-girl/girl partnership, yah, go find someone else to your liking or compatability. 

Afterall this is the 21st century and you're a millennial or "a future taxpayer" unlike the "boomers who are a burden to society" ... quoting Ukrainiandude of the same mindset.



> Do this, or else.


 ... still a choice. Do it or don't do it and face/live with the consequences.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> If you don't know, you don't deserve it and probably won't miss it.


 ... right, just as you don't have the answer to mortgage u/w's earlier question " why don't you volunteer in a hospital then"?


----------



## OptsyEagle

As I said, there is no comparison here. I have no doubt that if asked to go off and fight for our country we would get a similar response from the unvaccinated as the vaccinated. These two issues have little in common. Worse, by continuing down this line of reasoning, we risk giving the vaccinated some idea that their contribution to the pandemic fight somehow aligns equally with the sacrifices our gallant soldiers have done for us in the past and it does not.

As for the freedoms and rights these soldiers fought and died for, we need to keep in mind that our leaders had a very tough choice to make. Do they protect the individual rights of citizens to choose to vaccinate or do they protect the rights of citizens to have a fully operational healthcare system, knowing that vaccination was vital to ensure this. Since the majority of people, including the unvaccinated would benefit from saving the healthcare system, they had little choice but to decide to protect the rights of the many and temporarily set aside the rights of the few (unvaccinated). If we lose tract of that point, we lose track of everything.


----------



## Beaver101

^ The poster in post #7565 is spinning with his farcial comment ... "one" of the freedoms ... just how many freedoms does he need for his list?


----------



## sags

The war veterans didn't fight for people to have the right to recklessly endanger those who fearlessly work to protect us.

The war vets placed themselves at high risk when they heeded the call of a nation......just as healthcare workers and volunteers have done during this pandemic.

Nobody has the "right" to endanger other people, regardless of how many times uninformed people post that they do.


----------



## sags

Sorry to inform some anti-vaxxer posters......the world doesn't revolve around you.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> Soldiers fought for our freedom. One of those freedoms that they died for is being taken away.
> 
> The fact that you compare the two situations is ridiculous. You should be embarrassed that you are so uninformed.


What’s embarrassing is those who compared this to us lining up for gas chambers.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Member of the Troll-R-us bin would make that kind of comparison.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> Sorry to inform some anti-vaxxer posters......the world doesn't revolve around you.


I don't think it is right for a vaxxer to say this...

Since you guys are the ones who are asking others to do something.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> What’s embarrassing is those who compared this to us lining up for gas chambers.


No, to you being willing to lead people into gas chambers, not go there yourself.

You have no issue breaking human rights of people just because majority of society doesn't like them and scapegoats them. That was no different - majority determined those people didn't deserve to have human rights. 
And they didn't suddenly decide it in 1944. They decided it in 19th century. Just as you have decided this year.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> Again you miss the point. We do have a reason. Save our healthcare system.
> 
> My argument does not surround blindly following government rules. It has to do with social duty to your fellow Canadians. We needed these people to help to protect our hospitals, and they let us down by saying no.
> 
> Even with that decision we are not gassing them in a death chamber. We gave them a time out with a vaccine passport. As for employment mandates, that is such a large issue I will stay out of it. You really don't want my opinion on that one.
> 
> My sole purpose of these posts is to ensure that these people understand what their vaccinated friends, family and co-workers truly think about their decision. Most will probably listen to their reasons, some may even make some comment about standing up for their rights, but in the end, they definitely don't agree with the decision and most will feel you let the country down...because you did. But it's done. So lets all move on. I just want to make sure we don't put them in the same human rights category as Martin Luther King. That was becoming a bit nauseating.


Certain groups are more likely to commit crime - let's break their human rights so they don't do it.
Certain groups are more likely to fall sick - they don't deserve human rights either!
Certain groups are more likely to steal - no human rights for them, not on your watch!
Certain groups disagree with majority - can't have that! Society asked you to comply - no human rights for you.


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> No, to you being willing to lead people into gas chambers, not go there yourself.
> 
> You have no issue breaking human rights of people just because majority of society doesn't like them and scapegoats them. That was no different - majority determined those people didn't deserve to have human rights.
> And they didn't suddenly decide it in 1944. They decided it in 19th century. Just as you have decided this year.


ridicules


----------



## zinfit

Perhaps the anti-vaxxer group could find a telephone booth.


----------



## sags

Rebels without a cause.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Almost 7600 posts on this thread and I am still waiting for the solution to ending the pandemic from the anti-vax/conspiracy theorists. For a group having loads of scientific evidence, im somewhat disappointed.


----------



## james4beach

As important as the vaccines are, don't get overconfident here.

People with two shots *and three shots* are still catching covid. It will reduce the severity of their illness, but I think there are way too many people these days who are becoming careless after vaccination.

It's also now mostly vaccinated people spending covid around. These super spreader events we're seeing (like Kingston, and also students in Victoria BC) are vaccinated, and they are the ones spreading covid.

Even if you're vaccinated, you still need to wear a mask and avoid in-person gatherings. Restaurants, bars, and gyms are full of vaccinated people who are spreading covid around to everyone.


----------



## HappilyRetired

It's not a vaccine if it doesn't work. If it doesn't work then no one should take it. That's what science would say.


----------



## james4beach

HappilyRetired said:


> It's not a vaccine if it doesn't work. If it doesn't work then no one should take it. That's what science would say.


The vaccine does work. It reduces the chance of getting sick and dying... that's the purpose of a vaccine. It's still quite effective.

However, some % of vaccinated people will still catch covid. We're talking percents here. And since this is insanely infectious, some percent of a large number = large number.

It's a huge mistake in judgement to avoid the vaccine just because it isn't 100% effective.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> It's not a vaccine if it doesn't work. If it doesn't work then no one should take it. That's what science would say.


How do you categorize the flu vaccine?
Does it work?
We’ve been using it for years and influenza is still among us.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> How do you categorize the flu vaccine?
> Does it work?
> We’ve been using it for years and influenza is still among us.


The flu shot has been around for decades and influenza hasn't been eradicated. It will still be here 100 years from now. The exact same thing will happen with Covid, you can get the shot as often as you like but Covid will still be here.

The difference is that this time people want to ban you from participating in society if you don't comply. Would you comfortable banning people from society for life for not taking the flu shot? Because at this point all the evidence is indicating that Omicron has a higher survival rate than influenza.


----------



## KaeJS

Mortgage u/w said:


> Almost 7600 posts on this thread and I am still waiting for the solution to ending the pandemic from the anti-vax/conspiracy theorists. For a group having loads of scientific evidence, im somewhat disappointed.


Difficult to end something that never began.
There is no pandemic.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> The flu shot has been around for decades and influenza hasn't been eradicated. It will still be here 100 years from now. The exact same thing will happen with Covid, you can get the shot as often as you like but Covid will still be here.
> 
> The difference is that this time people want to ban you from participating in society if you don't comply. Would you comfortable banning people from society for life for not taking the flu shot? Because at this point all the evidence is indicating that Omicron has a higher survival rate than influenza.


Influenza vaccine is modified constantly. The dose composition needs to change as the virus mutates rapidly. Influenza may be around for many years, but the vaccine is revised every year it is offered. And still, its not 100% effective.

The difference is the influenza is not in a pandemic state. I will not repeat the definition of a pandemic so please look it up so you can follow.

We are being "banned" from activities because we have a lot of people who do not like to listen. If you have kids, you will understand that at times, you too need to "ban" them from certain activities which can be viewed as taking their "human rights" away. In reality, you are looking out for their own good.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

KaeJS said:


> Difficult to end something that never began.
> There is no pandemic.


I see you're still looking for the edge of the earth? Carry on.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> Influenza vaccine is modified constantly. The dose composition needs to change as the virus mutates rapidly. Influenza may be around for many years, but the vaccine is revised every year it is offered.
> 
> The difference is the influenza is not in a pandemic state. I will not repeat the definition of a pandemic so please look it up so you can follow.
> 
> We are being "banned" from activities because we have a lot of people who do not like to listen. If you have kids, you will understand that at times, you too need to "ban" them from certain activities which can be viewed as taking their "human rights" away. In reality, you are looking out for their own good.


Omicron so far has a lower fatality rate than the flu. People don't need to be locked down for something that is more mild than the flu. I don't need or want you or the govt looking out for my own good.

Two years ago if people said that they were scared of the flu common sense reasoning would have been to tell them to hide in their basement until they felt safe. If those same people suggested that everyone be forced to take the flu shot or be banned from society they would have been laughed at.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> Omicron so far has a lower fatality rate than the flu. People don't need to be locked down for something that is more mild than the flu. I don't need or want you or the govt looking out for my own good.
> 
> Two years ago if people said that they were scared of the flu common sense reasoning would have been to tell them to hide in their basement until they felt safe. If those same people suggested that everyone be forced to take the flu shot or be banned from society they would have been laughed at.


You've quoted that there hasn't been enough testing for Covid and Vaccines but yet, you accept the minimal data on Omicron that apparently has a lower fatality rate than the flu 🤔. You must be a genius in disguise.

I guess your smarter than your parents, teachers and all the experts around the world.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> You've quoted that there hasn't been enough testing for Covid and Vaccines but yet, you accept the minimal data on Omicron that apparently has a lower fatality rate than the flu 🤔. You must be a genius in disguise.
> 
> I guess your smarter than your parents, teachers and all the experts around the world.


I was just repeating what the experts have been forced to admit. There are 1 or 2 total fatalities from Omicron among the tens of thousands of cases.

Are you now saying that the experts are wrong?


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> As important as the vaccines are, don't get overconfident here.
> 
> People with two shots *and three shots* are still catching covid. It will reduce the severity of their illness, but I think there are way too many people these days who are becoming careless after vaccination.
> 
> It's also now mostly vaccinated people spending covid around. These super spreader events we're seeing (like Kingston, and also students in Victoria BC) are vaccinated, and they are the ones spreading covid.
> 
> Even if you're vaccinated, you still need to wear a mask and avoid in-person gatherings. Restaurants, bars, and gyms are full of vaccinated people who are spreading covid around to everyone.


 ... these "vaxxed" are the "wannabee" *lepers. * The "unvaxxeds" remains as the "original " *lepers.*


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> You've quoted that there hasn't been enough testing for Covid and Vaccines but yet, you accept the minimal data on Omicron that apparently has a lower fatality rate than the flu 🤔. You must be a genius in disguise.
> 
> I guess your smarter than your parents, teachers and all the experts around the world.


 ... of course, the conspiracy theorists in the Troll-R-Us bin are always smarter than everyone else on this planet. Let them be.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... of course, the conspiracy theorists in the Troll-R-Us bin are always smarter than everyone else on this planet. Let them be.


How many people have died from Omicron in Canada? Only verified cases please.


----------



## damian13ster

The wave in South Africa is on its way down. Hospitals had no issues whatsoever, deaths didn't rise significantly.
With how infectious it is Omicron will simply run through population like lightning, with its common cold symptoms, and it will be over quickly. Just don't act like morons, don't shoot yourself in the foot, and we are good to go


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> How many people have died from Omicron in Canada? Only verified cases please.


 ... and so how long has "Omicron" been here? 2 weeks? And you got an exponential growth already. 

And for the math lovers here, J4B has pinpointed it from his earlier post:


> _ And since this is insanely infectious, some percent of a large number = large number. _


Just a matter of time but then the Troll-R-Us binners would like the rest of us to believe "it's just 1 fatality" stucked in the year 2021 midDec. whilst we're in lockdown comes January 2022.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> The wave in South Africa is on its way down. Hospitals had no issues whatsoever, deaths didn't rise significantly.
> With how infectious it is Omicron will simply run through population like lightning, with its common cold symptoms, and it will be over quickly. Just don't act like morons, don't shoot yourself in the foot, and we are good to go


 ... you're more than welcome to be the first to go. ... go on and party out if you dare instead of shooting your loud mouth 24/7 spinning BSs here. Any more of them theories for us morons?


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... and so how long has "Omicron" been here? 2 weeks? And you got an exponential growth already.
> 
> And for the math lovers here, J4B has pinpointed it from his earlier post:
> 
> 
> Just a matter of time but then the Troll-R-Us binners would like the rest of us to believe "it's just 1 fatality" stucked in the year 2021 midDec. whilst we're in lockdown comes January 2022.


Exponential growth zero/no fatalities is a good thing. You should be happy instead of upset.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Again people. You are arguing right now over whose guess is going to be right. I just want to point out that the winner of an argument like that is not the smarter one, only the luckier one. If I don't point that out it will certainly get lost on the winner...if a winner ever gets declared with these arguments. 

Plus, lets not generate our conclusions about the merits of a taking a vaccine, that was produced in response to the severity of previous variants, with what should be done for a variant that has just arrived recently. As I said above, only the future will tell what we should or should not do with respect to Omicron.


----------



## damian13ster

HappilyRetired said:


> Exponential growth zero/no fatalities is a good thing. You should be happy instead of upset.


Oh, they will be thrilled seeing more people die. COVID disappearing is a single worst case for human rights abusers and authoritarians that popped up everywhere

Best way to feel morally superior while abusing human rights.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ... you're more than welcome to be the first to go. ... go on and party out if you dare instead of shooting your loud mouth 24/7 spinning BSs here. Any more of them theories for us morons?


As I've said before, some people are very upset that Omicron is looking to be extremely mild.

I can understand why Pfizer is upset...their cash cow might come to an end. But why are you so angry?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Why stuck on fatality rate? If that were the ultimate concern, then we would have already banned cars, sugar and nicotine.

A Pandemic is not defined by a fatality rate. Its defined by its infection rate.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Mortgage u/w said:


> Why stuck on fatality rate? If that were the ultimate concern, then we would have already banned cars, sugar and nicotine.
> 
> A Pandemic is not defined by a fatality rate. Its defined by its infection rate.


Because fatality rate is all that really matters. For all diseases or viruses.


----------



## damian13ster

Who cares if everyone gets infected if hospitalization rates are low and people die at extremely low rate?
You know how many viruses and bacteria are literally in every single organism, but for vast majority don't cause any symptoms - countless


----------



## Mortgage u/w

HappilyRetired said:


> Because fatality rate is all that really matters. For all diseases or viruses.





damian13ster said:


> Who cares if everyone gets infected if hospitalization rates are low and people die at extremely low rate?
> You know how many viruses and bacteria are literally in every single organism, but for vast majority don't cause any symptoms - countless


Clearly, you both don't understand what a pandemic is. Nor do you understand what the ultimate goal is by the introduction of all these measures we're taking.

Fatality rate is all that matters? Really? So its ok to catch a disease or virus with no cure to it - as long as you don't die? What universe did you stumble out of?


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Oh, they will be thrilled seeing more people die. COVID disappearing is a single worst case for human rights abusers and authoritarians that popped up everywhere
> 
> Best way to feel morally superior while abusing human rights.


 ... better tell that to your buddy Ukrainiandude. Remember he's the one keen on the idea of thinning out the population,particularly the sheep for which you're agreement with based on your silent response to his posts. This also means don't forget to include yourself in this bin.


----------



## damian13ster

Then do tell me what the ultimate goal is?

Yes, fatality and hospitalization rate is all that matters. It's ok to catch a disease or virus with no cure to it (COVID isn't one of them, vast majority of people cure themselves just from immune system) - as long as you don't get symptoms from it. It has always been the case and it will always be the case.

Don't try to google how many viruses you have in your body (> 300 trillion) and what terrible symptoms they can elicit in some people - you will have nightmares, wrap yourself in 10ft roll of bubblewrap, and never leave your basement. You simply are clueless about their existence, but they are in your body. 

The last post suddenly makes your opinion on the subject perfectly understandable.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> Exponential growth zero/*no fatalities is a good thing. *You should be happy instead of upset.


 ... One fatality is a good thing as well as zero fatality - which is it? Time for you to go back to kindergarten and start learning how to count from "one" or stop spewing BSs. Troll-R-Us.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> Then do tell me what the ultimate goal is?


Google what a Pandemic is and what an Endemic is. You might learn something from your trusted friend Google.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> Google what a Pandemic is and what an Endemic is. You might learn something from your trusted friend Google.


You should take your own advice. And this time try to understand also words within the definition of pandemic.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Common people. Let's stay with this. Things have evolved in 2 years. Remember the vaccines. The pandemic is certainly not about infections anymore because we should know by now that the vaccines don't stop infection very much and masks are never going to do enough. It is not really about deaths anymore either because as I just stated an extremely large part of our population were vaccinated and therefore the risk of most of us dying is incredibly small now. Too little to shut down an economy, at least.

The pandemic over the last 6 months primarily evolved into a risk to our healthcare system. That is our one remaining serious problem. The rest of the issues are certainly not big enough to implement economic restrictions/precautions. So can we keep things on track and not go ranting on about problems that don't exist anymore.

As for the current state of the world. We don't know. Omicron is too new to say whether it will blow away our hospital capacity or worse, bring back a whole new level of fatalities that would obviously make that our new problem. We are starting to see some evidence and so far the prognosis looks good. But it is still early. So lets stay focused. We all want this pandemic to end. If you anchor your reputation on a guess, when most end up being wrong (that is the way guesses work) they tend to keep fighting to be right and cluttering up the actual information we need with wrong studies, anecdotes and commentary. I can usually sort through it but it is getting tiresome.


----------



## damian13ster

It is beyond guess. 
Multiplication in lungs is 10x less than in Delta.
The symptoms are: fever, sore throat, cough, muscle weakness, fatigue

We have had entire country go through full wave and we saw effects.
We have UK go through a peak (cases started decreasing, might have confirmation in 2-3 days) and hospitalizations, deaths are not spiking up.
There is a lot of data. The problem is that for authoritarians and human rights abusers the end of the disease is the end of them not having to explain human rights abuse - we can't have that. So let's fear-monger bit more


----------



## Mortgage u/w

All eyes are on Omicron and I'm anxious to learn how it pans out and how the next variants affect us. Will they decrease or increase in potency? No one knows. 

All we know is that cases of COVID infections are definitely on the rise. We are losing the battle with containing this virus. There are too many opinions out there fueled by misinformation and this leads people to ignore important measures.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> Who cares if everyone gets infected if hospitalization rates are low and people die at extremely low rate?
> You know how many viruses and bacteria are literally in every single organism, but for vast majority don't cause any symptoms - countless


So who are all these people checking in our hospitals at a similar rate to the number of infections?


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> So who are all these people checking in our hospitals at a similar rate to the number of infections?


And where did you get this information from? That people with Omicron are checking into hospitals at similar rate, staying for similar amount of days, and ending up in similar results?

Did you just make it up or you actually have some backing?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> And where did you get this information from? That people with Omicron are checking into hospitals at similar rate, staying for similar amount of days, and ending up in similar results?
> 
> Did you just make it up or you actually have some backing?


Just read the news. If you're close to civilization, you can visit your local hospital if you want further proof.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> It is beyond guess.
> Multiplication in lungs is 10x less than in Delta.
> The symptoms are: fever, sore throat, cough, muscle weakness, fatigue
> 
> We have had entire country go through full wave and we saw effects.
> We have UK go through a peak (cases started decreasing, might have confirmation in 2-3 days) and hospitalizations, deaths are not spiking up.
> There is a lot of data. The problem is that for authoritarians and human rights abusers the end of the disease is the end of them not having to explain human rights abuse - we can't have that. So let's fear-monger bit more


You see that is what I am talking about. The data in the 1st paragraph above is not a guess. It is not a certain fact, since it is not peer reviewed and only one data point but it is very useful information. What isn't useful is the conclusions you are drawing from it.

It is a data point signaling that virus to virus omicron may be less severe. Even if that is correct there are many more things that can go wrong derailing our ending of the pandemic. So lets keep to the facts and keep the guesses about what they may mean to a minimum. That is all I am saying.

Stating your thoughts on what it means is OK but come on, relating the severity of Omicron to someone else attempting to abuse someone else's human rights because you think they get off on it or something, is just childish. It really tarnishes your posts when that kind of nonsense is added and takes away the usefulness of the post. Can you not see that?


----------



## sags

The first mistake is considering the virus as a lung infection.

It is a total body infection that affects the lungs, kidneys, heart, liver, nerves, and everywhere in the body it spreads to.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> Just read the news. If you're close to civilization, you can visit your local hospital if you want further proof.


So no data and you just made the statement up - not surprising


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> You see that is what I am talking about. The data in the 1st paragraph above is not a guess. It is not a certain fact, since it is not peer reviewed and only one data point but it is very useful information. What isn't useful is the conclusions you are drawing from it.
> 
> It is a data point signaling that virus to virus omicron may be less severe. Even if that is correct there are many more things that can go wrong derailing our ending of the pandemic. So lets keep to the facts and keep the guesses about what they may mean to a minimum. That is all I am saying.
> 
> Stating your thoughts on what it means is OK but come on, relating the severity of Omicron to someone else attempting to abuse someone else's human rights because you think they get off on it or something, is just childish. It really tarnishes your posts when that kind of nonsense is added and takes away the usefulness of the post. Can you not see that?


You yourself admitted that although there might not be science to support it, because of your temper tantrum you are justified in calling for human rights abuse.

It isn't one data point. It is one study that looked at multiple data points. 

And that explains what we are seeing - minimal number of Omicron patients in hospital and symptoms of: fatigue, sore throat, fever, muscle soreness, cough.
No intubations, no oxygen deficiency, no lung problems.
The study explained why that is the case


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> So no data and you just made the statement up - not surprising


What data do you need exactly? You have alternate data that contradicts the media? 
Cause you certainly do not have data to contradict what I am seeing in our Hospitals.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Just thought I should share the most recent highlights in the Montreal Gazette. Not all pertains to RoC but gives you some insight to what is going on......in case some people still think COVID is a hoax.


_Live: With cases at record levels, Quebec to close schools, bars and limit restaurant hours_
_Canadian Armed Forces to be deployed to Côte-Nord region in response to outbreaks, Ottawa says_
_Slated to close, the Palais des congrès vaccination site will stay open and expand_
_U.K. may tighten COVID curbs after Christmas as Omicron sweeps Europe_
_Jean Coutu says all appointments to pick up free rapid tests have been allocated ‘for the next few hours’_
_Photos: First day of free rapid test distribution in Montreal_
_Booster eligibility expands to all adults in Ontario_
_Quebec cases soar to record 4,571 as hospitalizations continue to climb_
_Moderna says a third dose of COVID vaccine boosts Omicron immunity_
_As cases soar, Quebecers scramble for rapid tests, booster shots_
_Omicron will be ‘a very hot and very intense fire,’ Quebec doctor says_
_Quebec restrictions to stall Omicron variant come into force today_
_Canadians urged to get COVID-19 booster jabs as Omicron concerns grow_
_Quebec has Canada’s highest per-capita infection rate_


----------



## damian13ster

Contradiction to what? You haven't provided any information or statements so what am I to contradict?

Unless you mean your 'Omicron has same hospitalization rate' BS?

There was already data provided here from South Africa that showed it is 91% less severe than Delta.
There was research study provided here which explained why - because Delta multiplies at 10x the rate of Omicron in the lungs.
There is data from UK.

What more contradictions and facts you need before you let go of your made up statement?

From your list:

yeah, no **** - there is more cases. The variant is much more contagious and seasonally both Quebec and Ontario have more cases in December - look at when the previous peaks were.
yeah, there are more rapid tests
yeah, there is a push for booster jabs
Not contradicting any of those. What does all of that have with your 'Omicron has same rate of hospitalization' BS?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> Contradiction to what? You haven't provided any information or statements so what am I to contradict?
> 
> Unless you mean your 'Omicron has same hospitalization rate' BS?
> 
> There was already data provided here from South Africa that showed it is 91% less severe than Delta.
> There was research study provided here which explained why - because Delta multiplies at 10x the rate of Omicron in the lungs.
> There is data from UK.
> 
> What more contradictions and facts you need before you let go of your made up statement?
> 
> From your list:
> 
> yeah, no **** - there is more cases. The variant is much more contagious and seasonally both Quebec and Ontario have more cases in December - look at when the previous peaks were.
> yeah, there are more rapid tests
> yeah, there is a push for booster jabs
> Not contradicting any of those. What does all of that have with your 'Omicron has same rate of hospitalization' BS?


You clearly have a hard time reading. Not once did I say that Omicron has the same rate of hospitalizations.


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> So who are all these people checking in our hospitals at a similar rate to the number of infections?


Here is the statement.
They are not. Hospitalizations are much lower, meanwhile number of infections is record high.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> Here is the statement.
> They are not. Hospitalizations are much lower, meanwhile number of infections is record high.


My analogy is infections are up and climbing at the same time that hospitalizations are up. I did not literally mean the percentage is equal.


----------



## damian13ster

Then don't use 'similar rate' in the statement if you don't mean it is rising at 'similar rate' - then you will not get a contradiction

Amazing information:











More great news, this time from Denmark:










Data from UK is phenomenal too. Cases skyrocketing and deaths plummeting as Omicron takes over and pushes delta out


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> You yourself admitted that although there might not be science to support it, because of your temper tantrum you are justified in calling for human rights abuse.
> 
> It isn't one data point. It is one study that looked at multiple data points.
> 
> And that explains what we are seeing - minimal number of Omicron patients in hospital and symptoms of: fatigue, sore throat, fever, muscle soreness, cough.
> No intubations, no oxygen deficiency, no lung problems.
> The study explained why that is the case


You missed the point again. My main point was that relating to a person unwilling to conclude, at this time, that Omicron is benign because they have some sick desire to take away someone's human rights, is just ridiculous.

If you have a disagreement with someone who feels they need more information then what you listed to determine the severity of a variant, then focus your replies on that. Don't add some nonsense that no would will ever believe or agree with. It just reduces the usefulness of your posts.

That was what I was saying. I am trying to help you out. You do occasionally bring us some useful information but your personal opinions on it, at times, are so nonsensical that most people are forced to ignore the whole post entirely. Because of that they are missing the small useful parts that are occasionally in them. I don't know why you would want that.


----------



## damian13ster

I did. Provided data to support that, provided research studies showing why that is the case.

People who want to retain their "moral authority" to abuse human rights simply ignore the facts to retain their superiority - they enjoy being oppressors. They enjoy being in power.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> Then don't use 'similar rate' in the statement if you don't mean it is rising at 'similar rate' - then you will not get a contradiction
> 
> Amazing information:
> 
> View attachment 22519
> 
> 
> 
> More great news, this time from Denmark:
> 
> View attachment 22520
> 
> 
> Data from UK is phenomenal too. Cases skyrocketing and deaths plummeting as Omicron takes over and pushes delta out
> 
> View attachment 22521


Good post. Thanks for that. Not sure what the one above was but hopefully it made you feel better.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Then don't use 'similar rate' in the statement if you don't mean it is rising at 'similar rate' - then you will not get a contradiction
> 
> Amazing information:


 ... I really feel for your employer who has an employee that likes to practice wishful thinking, especially in the field of engineering (assuming that's correct). The "let's see if we can fit a round peg into a square hole (or vice-versa)" phenomenon.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> As I've said before, some people are very upset that Omicron is looking to be extremely mild.
> 
> I can understand why Pfizer is upset...their cash cow might come to an end. But why are you so angry?


 ... why are you always assuming? Or is it just your natural modus operandus? Just like damian13ster who likes to do wishful thinking, only after first insult and names-calling others.


----------



## KaeJS

Mortgage u/w said:


> I see you're still looking for the edge of the earth? Carry on.


Nope. The world is round. Anyone who debates that does not understand gravity, force and physics.


----------



## sags

The data doesn't separate Omicron from the Delta variant. The most cases are still caused by the Delta variant.

It is too early to know if the Omicron variant causes less severe disease. Better outcomes are more likely due to vaccination and better treatments.

The South African study may just be due to past infections and the young age of the population. As Gottlieb said.......they don't know.

The bottom line........anyone who claims they know Omicron is less serious has no data to back up their claims.

It will take time for the number of Omicron cases to increase, be identified and then studied for a period of time.

Jumping to conclusions based on what you hope will be the outcome is never a good scientific practice.


----------



## damian13ster

Well yeah, that's why the data is provided only for countries where Omicron is a dominant strain.

The bottom line.......you ignore any facts that contradict your predetermined view

And that's why another study was provided which looked at multiplication rate of the virus in tissue which explains not only that Omicron is less severe, but also WHY it is less severe.
But it doesn't work with your predetermined view so you will ignore it anyway


----------



## sags

One thing the researchers, experts and emergency room doctors agree on is the un-vaccinated are suffering the full impact of the disease once infected.

One ER doctor in a busy Michigan hospital said today that every one of their patients entering into the ICU is not vaccinated.

She just had a 30 year old patient with a couple of young kids in the ICU. She recognizes the sign of imminent death from covid as " increasing restlessness" of the patient as their bodies struggle with the disease. Her advice to his wife........bring in the kids to say goodbye. He died a couple days later.

Covid is serious for anyone, but most especially for the un-vaccinated. The health care professionals are worn out and facing yet another explosion of cases.

The least people can do is get vaccinated, so the doctors don't have to tell their family they should come in to say goodbye.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> One thing the researchers, experts and emergency room doctors agree on is the un-vaccinated are suffering the full impact of the disease once infected.
> 
> One doctor said today that every one of her patients entering into the ICU is not vaccinated.


Yay, you found a single doctor that supports your view and allows scapegoating of minority again - that's how science is done!


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Well yeah, that's why the data is provided only for countries where Omicron is a dominant strain.
> 
> The bottom line.......*you ignore any facts that contradict your predetermined view*
> 
> And that's why another study was provided which looked at multiplication rate of the virus in tissue which explains not only that Omicron is less severe, but also WHY it is less severe.
> But it doesn't work with your predetermined view so you will ignore it anyway


 ... go and re-read what "you, yourself, and only you" posted /snap-shot in#7627:



> _Scott Gottlieb, MD:
> 
> In South Africa, we’re thankfully seeing a striking decoupling between new Covid cases and ICU admissions and deaths. *Whether #Omicron* is inherently less virulent, *whether this hopeful finding is* result of baseline immunity in infected, or a combination of both, _*is still unclear *


 ... what part of that MD's comment do you not understand?

Is it the word or the 2 words "still unclear"? 

Or best said of yourself with your own bottomline - *you ignore any facts that contradict your predetermined view.*

Obviously, you have no mirrors at home or can't bother to look into one and see who's on on there without having to shoot off your loud mouth being a (make-believe) "GENIUS". 

Have you been smoking something like Ukrainiandude?


----------



## like_to_retire

damian13ster said:


> Yay, you found a single doctor that supports your view and allows scapegoating of minority again - that's how science is done!


Yes, after a ton of research, sags found the single quack doctor on the internet that claimed, "Covid is serious for anyone, but most especially for the un-vaccinated". 

Oh wait, that's what every doctor and medical organization in the world says.

ltr


----------



## like_to_retire

delete, double post


----------



## damian13ster

like_to_retire said:


> Yes, after a ton of research, sags found the single quack doctor on the internet that claimed, "Covid is serious for anyone, but most especially for the un-vaccinated".
> 
> Oh wait, that's what every doctor and medical organization in the world says.
> 
> ltr


He edited his post.

My reply was in regards to this statement:
"One doctor said today that every one of her patients entering into the ICU is not vaccinated."

The statistics of amount of vaccinated vs unvaccinated people in ICU and hospitals is well known and available for majority of countries.
What one doctor found out is irrelevant. Vaccinated people infect, get infected, get sick, get in hospitals, get in ICU, and die.
They get to hospital and to ICU at slightly lower rate than the unvaccinated; however, the sentence that I have responded to is anecdotal and not reflective of reality on a larger scale.

We know people who have been vaccinated with second dose >5 months ago have no neutralizing antibodies against Omicron.
People a month after second dose have about 33% protection


----------



## sags

Some people focus entirely on the number of covid patients flooding into the hospitals.

That ignores the reality that ERs have to handle all the other reasons that people attend to the ER units......heart attacks, strokes, accidents etc.

Many doctors are also saying people are showing up with more severe symptoms of health problems they didn't address during the pandemic, and it is requiring higher levels of treatment.

One of the mistakes during this pandemic was the absence of live cameras in the ER and ICU units.

Many ER doctors have said they wished the public could see what they are dealing with every day. It may open up some eyes to what is happening behind the hospital walls.


----------



## damian13ster

Increase in health problems due to fear-mongering, mental health issues, anxiety, overdoses is well known.
People aren't really disputing that. Effect of government actions on health of Canadians was terrible.

Canadian government killed a lot of young people.
We have among highest excess deaths in young population among developed countries.
Our 'years of life lost' statistic is terrible.
You will not find me arguing there at all - Government of Canada destroyed health of millions of Canadians and killed thousands of young people

Maybe it is finally coming to light just how many young people Government killed through their ineffective and harmful actions.


----------



## sags

You really are f***ded up.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> _One of the mistakes during this pandemic was the absence of live cameras in the ER and ICU units.
> 
> Many ER doctors have said they wished the public could see what they are dealing with every day. It may open up some eyes to what is happening behind the hospital walls_.


 ... I don't think they can set up live cameras in hospitals given the privacy issue thing. Besides, the conspiracy-theorists doesn't want nor care to see what's really like there, let alone shed a tear. *Add: *They're (like poster 7643) really fvcked up.

Toronto hospital network puts most outpatient surgical procedures on hold to preserve resources amid Omicron threat

^ One hospital network in Toronto (Mon. Dec. 20, 2021) is preparing to withhold most non-emergency surgeries given the incoming flood of Covid related cases.


----------



## sags

Damianster joined the forum 8 months ago during the pandemic.

Did he join solely to spread nonsense about the pandemic ?


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> You really are f***ded up.


No, the facts are fucked up. Don't hate the messenger.





__





The Daily — Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January 2020 to June 2021


From March 2020 to the beginning of June 2021, there were an estimated 23,547 excess deaths in Canada. Age-standardized mortality rates for 2020 are compared with previous years to better understand how overall mortality trends for certain age groups may have been driven by different causes of...




www150.statcan.gc.ca





Analysis of excess mortality trends observed a similar alignment between the number of COVID-19-caused deaths and excess mortality. However, a closer examination reveals that this was not the case for some age groups. For example, 2,992 excess deaths were observed in 2020 in the 0-44 age category, while the same age group experienced fewer than 100 deaths attributed directly to COVID-19 over the same period.

While the overall mortality rate for those younger than 45 was in decline in 2019, this changed in 2020. For this age group, the mortality rate rose 17.4% from 2019 to 75.7 deaths per 100,000 population in 2020—the highest rate observed since 1999.

This increase in age-standardized mortality rates among those younger than 45 cannot be fully explained by deaths attributed directly to COVID-19. For this age group, the mortality rate due to COVID-19 was 0.44 deaths per 100,000 population in 2020, which amounted to fewer than 100 deaths attributed directly to the disease. On the other hand, similar to the overall trend for this age group, the age-standardized mortality rate for unintentional poisonings in the 0-44 age group increased by 41% from 2019 to 11.7 deaths per 100,000 population in 2020, reversing the decline observed from 2017 to 2019.

Age-standardized mortality rates for 2020 were relatively stable among the natural causes of death that are most common in the 0-44 age group. Cancers (8.0 deaths per 100,000 population) and heart disease (3.2 deaths per 100,000 population) in 2020 remained similar to rates reported in 2018 and 2019.

Similar to overall trends, the 45-64 age group had experienced steady declines in age-standardized mortality rates leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, hitting a low of 379.5 deaths per 100,000 population in 2019. However, in 2020, the mortality rate for this age group rose to 411.2 deaths per 100,000 population, which was 8.3% higher than in 2019 and the highest rate for this age group since 2012 (412.1).

Looking at patterns by cause of death, deaths due to both COVID-19 and unintentional poisonings have contributed to the increase in 2020. The age-standardized mortality rate for COVID-19-caused deaths was 7.8 deaths per 100,000 population for this age group. On the other hand, the mortality rate for unintentional poisonings increased by 35.2% among 45-to-64-year-olds, from 12.5 deaths per 100,000 population in 2019 to 16.9 in 2020.


----------



## sags

I agree Beav......these people don't give a **** about other people.

Heck, even idiot Trump got a booster shot and when he told his audience they booed him.

That is the mentality of some people, who comprise much of the 40% of un-vaccinated Americans.

At the rate they are going, they could be heading for martial law to save society. So much for their rights and freedoms then.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> I agree Beav......these people don't give a **** about other people.


 ... that's why I say they're members of the Troll-R-Us (TRASH) bin (and that's too polite of a term too).


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Damianster joined the forum 8 months ago during the pandemic.
> 
> *Did he join solely to spread nonsense about the pandemic ?*


 ... affirmative given the spews he's continuously shooting out. 

And he's supposedly an "engineer"? WHOA. I would especially be careful/wary of which bridge or thing he designed and approved.


----------



## sags

Mortality rates rise and fall for a lot of unrelated reasons.

One thing we know for sure........people are dying from Covid and there is the foreboding danger of a worse variant mutating.


----------



## Beaver101

People in Ontario are selling rapid COVID-19 tests online for hundreds of dollars

Why would anyone want to pay $90 to $200 for something that doesn't cost anything in the first place or that they could get purchase at the pharmacy for less, like $40? Can't wait to hear what father Ford has to say about this.


----------



## Money172375

My friend‘s employer sent him to Dubai last week. You can guess what happened. 
tested positive as he prepared for his flight home. Now he’s stuck there for 2 more weeks. Missing Christmas with 4 kids at home.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Some common sensed employer he got, NOT! Did he not have a choice to say "no" to the travel?


----------



## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Some common sensed employer he got, NOT! Did he not have a choice to say "no" to the travel?


Not sure. When I first heard he was going to the office everyday, I asked “who owns your company? Everyone I know is working from home”. The company is from Dubai. Not sure he thought through the possible poor scenarios.


----------



## damian13ster

(CNN)The Omicron Covid-19 variant now accounts for over 73% of new coronavirus cases in the US, according to estimates posted Monday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
For the week ending December 18, Omicron accounted for 73.2% of cases, with Delta making up an additional 26.6%.
The week prior, ending December 11, Omicron was estimated at 12.6% of circulating virus, versus Delta's 87%. Previously, the CDC estimated Omicron accounted for about 3% that week.
Omicron is even more prevalent in certain parts of the country — making up over 95% of circulating virus in parts of the Northwest and Southeast, the data shows.

Great news. Shows that once Omicron appeared - Delta got pushed out, quickly. Also explains the sudden drop-off in COVID deaths in US


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> The vaccine does work. It reduces the chance of getting sick and dying... that's the purpose of a vaccine. It's still quite effective.
> 
> However, some % of vaccinated people will still catch covid. We're talking percents here. And since this is insanely infectious, some percent of a large number = large number.
> 
> It's a huge mistake in judgement to avoid the vaccine just because it isn't 100% effective.


JUST READ the federal data on vaccinations. Something like 9% of the deaths are with the vaccinated. Pretty solid evidence when you consider 80% of the population is fully vaccinated. The CDC says the risk of death is 20 fold higher fot the unvaccinated. IT seems this ratio is pretty much the same for Canada.


----------



## damian13ster

zinfit said:


> JUST READ the federal data on vaccinations. Something like 9% of the deaths are with the vaccinated. Pretty solid evidence when you consider 80% of the population is fully vaccinated. The CDC says the risk of death is 20 fold higher fot the unvaccinated. IT seems this ratio is pretty much the same for Canada.


Omicron is different than Delta, which was different than Alpha and Beta.

The effectiveness against Alpha and Beta (which is included in the statistic you are quoting) is completely irrelevant to December 2021 and going forward


----------



## sags

The UK now has 7 deaths from Omicron and Texas recorded their first death in Harris County.

The deaths from Omicron will increase as the cases of infections increase.

One death one day, and the next day 6 more deaths. That is 7 deaths and 85 hospitalizations in only 24,998 confirmed Omicron cases.

_*Well, so much for those “Omicold” claims about the Omicron variant.* The Omicron variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is certainly not the same as the common cold. While the jury’s still out on how virulent the Omicron variant may be, this new variant is proving that it can hospitalize and kill people, which is not what the common cold commonly does. Today, the U.K. Health Security Agency reported that there have already been seven deaths and 85 hospitalizations related to the Omicron variant in the U.K. as of December 16.

*Seven deaths is six more than what had been reported by the U.K. Health Security Agency the day prior and what Robert Hart had reported on for Forbes five days ago on December 13. So the chances of this number staying at seven are pretty darn low.* Seven deaths may also be seven more than what you might expect with just the common cold.

According to the same report, the U.K. has had 24,968 confirmed Omicron variant cases as of 6 pm on December 17. That’s a 10,059 case change from the tally in the previous day’s report, which is a Dogecoin-esque rise. Before you start calculating any case fatality rates from these numbers, though, keep in mind that confirmed hospitalizations and deaths will lag case counts in time. This ain’t like the video game Minecraft where everyone’s head resembles a cardboard box and deaths and other outcomes are immediately registered.* Instead, it will take time for various Covid-19 outcomes to evolve and be reported.









7 Deaths From Omicron Covid-19 Coronavirus Variant In UK, Showing It’s Not The ‘Omicold’


The U.K. Health Security Agency reported 85 hospitalizations due to the Omicron variant as well.




www.forbes.com




*_


----------



## sags

Now it is up to 12 deaths from Omicron in the UK.

This is not a benign virus similar to the common cold or flu.

Stay home and stay safe. Now is not the time to travel or visit friends.









UK's Omicron Deaths Rise To 12, No Guarantees On Christmas Curbs


Twelve people in Britain have died with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, Britain's Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab said on Monday, refusing to rule out a tightening of social restrictions before Christmas.




www.ndtv.com


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Can't make Stupid smart.


----------



## damian13ster

US has had about 1million cases of Omicron by now.
Just 1 death? ****, Omicron just tied Alec Baldwin in US deaths.
I will share a secret with you. There will be more! The thing is 91% less severe than Delta, and they have had 1500 deaths/day from Delta last week.
In last flu season pre-covid they had 28,000 deaths and you are making a fuss over 1.


In Canada, there were more deaths from flu for under 20 year olds in 2019 than there were for COVID (all of alpha, beta, delta) from the beginning of the pandemic.

Yeah, there will be 50 year olds with underlying health conditions, or even otherwise relatively healthy 70+ year olds dying. So what?
You don't kill thousands of young people like Canadian government did because of couple deaths of people with underlying health conditions/million of Omicron cases.

Death rates from overdoses for under 45 year olds is 11.7/100,000.
For COVID 0.44/100,000
Chances of dying by lighting is 0.2/100,000 for comparison.

And now we are dealing with a variant 91% less severe.
The news so far about Omicron has been spectacularly good. Better than anyone could have imagine. If you wanted to design a perfect variant to end the pandemic you couldn't come up with anything better.


----------



## damian13ster

Omicron: South African scientists probe link between variants and untreated HIV


Covid variants may be mutating inside people with suppressed immunity.



www.bbc.com





What human rights should we take away from HIV-positive people?
The emergence, for instance, of the Alpha variant has been linked to a patient receiving treatment for cancer in the UK.
"Diabetes, cancer, hunger, auto-immune diseases, chronic TB, obesity - we have a huge population of people with suppressed immunity for other reasons," said Professor Marc Mendelson, head of infectious diseases at Cape Town's Groote Schuur hospital.


Damn incubators - strip their rights! Unacceptable they can still be treated as first-class citizens..
Rights of majority of society to be butt-hurt much more important than human rights!


----------



## Beaver101

^ Broken records going into the loonie trash bins.


----------



## Beaver101

The anti-vaxxers of this province (Ontario) must be proud of themselves to be able to send our premier running to escape to his cottage instead of home. Has Christmas started early for him?

Ontario Premier Doug Ford can't get into his home due to anti-vaxx protesters outside: spokesperson


----------



## Mortgage u/w

I canceled my cable and all subscriptions. I now read the Coronavirus(Covid-19) thread instead!


----------



## damian13ster

Apparently incubation period for Omicron is significantly shorter than for other strains. Symptoms appear after 3 days on average since infection.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Delta incubation was a little shorter then the previous ones as well. The more important question is how long after infection does a person become infectious and of course how long after that does a person show symptoms. It is that period between infectious and symptoms that makes the big difference and asymptomatic is probably the worse of them all.

Since Delta was more infectious then the previous ones and Omicron is more infectious then delta my assumption is that the time between infection and becoming infectious is also shortening, making the person infectious quicker and most likely therefore, longer.

Previously, with the other strains it took quite a bit more then a day, I think 4 days for the original, after infection to become infectious. I jokingly mentioned that it is starting to look to me, that with Omicron a person coming into work at 8:00am, will get immediately infected by the positive guy beside him and will probably be able to infect the receptionist, at that same company, as he says goodbye to her as he leaves work at 4:00pm. We will probably soon find out about this and its ramifications.


----------



## damian13ster

It does seem that it makes the person infectious quicker. Why longer though?
If they get symptoms quicker, and those in hospital for 70% less time than in Delta then why would they infect longer?

And how about it OptsyEagle. Human rights apply to people with HIV and "Diabetes, cancer, hunger, auto-immune diseases, chronic TB, obesity" or should we suspend it for them as well since they are variant incubators? Can't have human rights and equality for those scumbags detrimental to majority of society, right?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> And how about it OptsyEagle. Human rights apply to people with HIV and "Diabetes, cancer, hunger, auto-immune diseases, chronic TB, obesity" or should we suspend it for them as well since they are variant incubators? Can't have human rights and equality for those scumbags detrimental to majority of society, right?


What kind of analogy is that? None of those are contagious diseases. 

Good thing ignorance is not contagious.


----------



## damian13ster

They are incubators for variants. 2/4 of variants of concern at least came from that group. The other 2 there is no source confirmed
You would know if you actually read entire statement (bolded now):

And how about it OptsyEagle. Human rights apply to people with HIV and "Diabetes, cancer, hunger, auto-immune diseases, chronic TB, obesity" or *should we suspend it for them as well since they are variant incubators*? Can't have human rights and equality for those scumbags detrimental to majority of society, right?


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> It does seem that it makes the person infectious quicker. Why longer though?
> If they get symptoms quicker, and those in hospital for 70% less time than in Delta then why would they infect longer?
> 
> And how about it OptsyEagle. Human rights apply to people with HIV and "Diabetes, cancer, hunger, auto-immune diseases, chronic TB, obesity" or should we suspend it for them as well since they are variant incubators? Can't have human rights and equality for those scumbags detrimental to majority of society, right?


I will skip the human rights question. That has been answered. You really do need to let that one go. It is definitely taking away from usefulness of your posts.

The main factor affecting a person becoming infectious is the time between when they get infected is how quickly they generate enough virus to infect someone else. With Omicron we have two things that speed that up all coming from one characteristic. Omicron reproduces in the breathing tracks quicker. That speeds up how quickly a newly infected person generates more virus to infect someone with AND it reduces the amount of virus a non-infected person needs to take in, so as to generate an infection for them. We then can superimpose on all that, the bodies response to slow down and stop that process, and that response would vary by vaccination status for sure, age and a few other things, but a bodies response still takes some time, so you can see why a virus that reproduces like Omicron can be so infectious.

Symptoms are another story. How much virus one person would need to create a symptom would vary considerably compared to how much another person would need. Also, if the virus itself is indeed more benign (and that has not been confirmed at this point even considering all the wonderful posts you have made on the matter) then the time between infection to symptoms may not be sped up in the same way as the time between infection to being infectious.

Again we will find out. All I know for sure is that if Omicron turns out to NOT be as benign as it has first appeared, and there are many reasons that still might be the case, we would see some serious carnage, the likes of which our generation has never seen before. So I am keeping my fingers crossed but more importantly my mind open and as unbiased as possible, so as to react properly to what the actual reality is going to be. We all should do the same.


----------



## damian13ster

I will never let go majority abusing human rights of minorities - never.
We know what it leads to from history so 'letting it go' is absolutely not an option.

In regards to your second paragraph: you are completely right. The virus is much more reproductive and much more contagious. Plenty of data to support that, and not many dispute it (I definitely am not). It is brilliant information because it pushes delta out wherever it appears and deaths are plummeting. 
Simply a statement that it infects for longer is unproven, has little evidence, and it counter to logic. 
It does have much higher infection rate though.
The differentiating between the two is important because otherwise our authoritarians might lock you for 28 days if you have a sniffle.

Your last paragraph is purely hypothetical. You can speculate that Omicron might merge with HIV, black death, bubonic plague, or whatever else you wish to throw in there. You don't make decisions based on such hypothetical because those decisions have massive cost.

Keeping mind open is extremely important. And that's why we need to look at data, facts, and not make decisions, strip people of their human rights, based on temper tantrums or because they didn't act like you wished them to.


----------



## sags

It is so nice to have the foremost world expert on coronaviruses on our forum, to correct what the experts around the world are saying.


----------



## sags

It might be helpful for some posters to inform themselves on the Charter of Rights, particularly this section on reasonable limits to individual rights.





__





Charterpedia - Section 1 – Reasonable limits


Department of Justice Canada's Internet site




www.justice.gc.ca


----------



## damian13ster

Even if something is legal (Imho it doesn't pass Oakes test for Delta or Omicron, but opinions might differ since it's subjective) doesn't mean it is moral or ethical.

Ethical people would understand that.

Don't have to look far for clear examples: residential schools and forced sterilizations


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> It is so nice to have the foremost world expert on coronaviruses on our forum, to correct what the experts around the world are saying.


Dr Fauci: "The vaccines will be 100% effective."


----------



## sags

The restriction of individual rights in the Charter was specifically included to guide government on how to make moral and ethical decisions.

It was thoroughly debated, passed by the legislature, and upheld by the courts.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> The restriction of individual rights in the Charter was specifically included to guide government on how to make moral and ethical decisions.


And they decided to exterminate First Nations culture - bravo for them.......

I am not getting into the pissing match with you over this. You clearly have different ethical standards and since it is all subjective then it is completely pointless.

Can discuss facts, data. Won't discuss your opinions


----------



## sags

That would be a short discussion, since you make up your own facts. All you have to offer is very questionable opinions.


----------



## sags

You make legal pronouncements on legislation you don't understand, and likely have never read.

You cast "expert" opinions on science you never studied and have no expertise in.

Basically, you just repeat the conspiracy theories and illogical arguments you read somewhere on the internet and drag them into this forum.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> I will never let go majority abusing human rights of minorities - never.
> We know what it leads to from history so 'letting it go' is absolutely not an option.
> 
> In regards to your second paragraph: you are completely right. The virus is much more reproductive and much more contagious. Plenty of data to support that, and not many dispute it (I definitely am not). It is brilliant information because it pushes delta out wherever it appears and deaths are plummeting.
> Simply a statement that it infects for longer is unproven, has little evidence, and it counter to logic.
> It does have much higher infection rate though.
> The differentiating between the two is important because otherwise our authoritarians might lock you for 28 days if you have a sniffle.
> 
> Your last paragraph is purely hypothetical. You can speculate that Omicron might merge with HIV, black death, bubonic plague, or whatever else you wish to throw in there. You don't make decisions based on such hypothetical because those decisions have massive cost.
> 
> Keeping mind open is extremely important. And that's why we need to look at data, facts, and not make decisions, strip people of their human rights, based on temper tantrums or because they didn't act like you wished them to.


I did say "most likely" when I mentioned about a person being infectious longer and I was referring specifically between the time where one is infectious and where one produces symptoms. How long the illness and infection period lasts in its entirety will be something to find out.

The point about dropping the "human rights" issue is not because I want you to put it aside but because everyone knows your views about the matter and has heard them so much they will stop reading every post where you add it to. Worse then that you add that point to posts where it has no bearing at all.

I am just trying to help you out. You will get no support from readers who stop reading your posts. I know I bypass a lot of them and suspect I might be missing some good stuff but you have to let it go. It is taking away from your objective, not supporting it. Wait for the right moments and then hit us all again. That is what I would do, anyway.


----------



## damian13ster

My bad then. I have misunderstood the meaning of your sentence. Thought you were referring to the time period during which person who have had Omicron is infectious.
Now knowing what you mean I do agree with you. Data is suggesting that period between infection and symptoms is 3 days (4 for delta), and at least for delta one was infectious 24-48h before symptoms onset. Not aware of data for omicron yet. Logically though, multiplication rate in throat would be significantly faster than Delta from point of entry to the point where host becomes infectious.

I think showing that actual 'incubators' aren't unvaccinated but immunocompromised people was the right moment since Sags want unvaccinated locked up based on his baseless claims that they are the ones producing variants. Sadly, multiple posters come up with multiple excuses for human rights violation so when a new fact comes up in one of those it is natural to ask whether the position they took is now reconsidered, or the 'open mind' statement doesn't apply to them.

You are right though - it is counterproductive. Simply getting 'triggered' when human rights are abused, mostly because my country had relatively recent history of it so having knowledge and understanding the consequences of it makes it hard to not react seeing people advocating for human rights abuse - I will try to work on that.


----------



## damian13ster

*Preliminary data suggests Omicron may be less likely to cause severe disease in the lungs*
From CNN's Jacqueline Howard

*New research adds to growing evidence that the Omicron coronavirus variant may be less likely to cause severe disease in the lungs and appears to be less sensitive to current vaccines compared with other variants – but a booster dose can help improve protection.*
Researchers from the United Kingdom, Japan and South Africa analyzed blood serum samples from vaccinated people and *found that neutralization of Omicron was not detectable for most people who received two doses of either the AstraZeneca or Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines; but a third dose of vaccine – or booster shot – rescued neutralization in the short term.*


> *"The Omicron variant appears to be much better than Delta at evading neutralising antibodies in individuals who have received just two doses of the vaccine. A third dose ‘booster’ with the Pfizer vaccine was able to overturn this in the short term, though we’d still expect a waning in immunity to occur over time," *Ravi Gupta, an author of the study, which was posted Tuesday to the preprint server biorxiv.org, and a professor at the University of Cambridge's Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease, said in a statement Monday.


To better understand how Omicron may infect our cells, Gupta and his colleagues also tested how pseudoviruses infected cells within a mini model of parts of the lungs. The researchers found that Omicron has lower infectivity of lung cells compared with the Delta variant.
"We speculate that the more efficient the virus is at infecting our cells, the more severe the disease might be. *The fact that Omicron is not so good at entering lung cells and that it causes fewer fused cells with lower infection levels in the lab suggests this new variant may cause less severe lung-associated disease," Gupta said in the statement.*
"While further work is needed to corroborate these findings, overall, it suggests that *Omicron’s mutations present the virus with a double-edged sword: it’s got better at evading the immune system, but it might have lost some of its ability to cause severe disease,"* he added.


The results from research are incredibly consistent and very positive.


----------



## sags

I am surprised you aren't on speed dial for all the world leaders. One call and you can straighten them right out.


----------



## sags

Meanwhile back in the real world, governments at all levels are enacting more restrictions, declaring emergency declarations, trying to find healthcare workers, and dealing with overflowing ERs.

No rainbows and unicorns in the world they are trying frantically to deal with. 

The world is dealing with a global pandemic of misery and you want to play the banjo and sing happy campfire songs.


----------



## damian13ster

Majority of the world is still dealing with Delta.
At exact same time they had spikes last year.
It is seasonal and peaks are completely independent of their actions.

Those places where Omicron took over are seeing death and hospitalizations rates plummet.
Those places where Delta is still dominant are still in trouble.

Your condescending posts without any basis, or data do not change reality.

Take example from OptsyEagle. We have vastly different world view but there is nothing wrong with discourse, as long as it is educated, intelligent, and based on facts.

Don't learn from beaver


----------



## sags

Pass over that bowl of hopium..........and a 20 pound bag of Oreo cookies.

The situation is apparent to everyone and none of your "no worse than a cold" posts change anything.


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> I am surprised you aren't on speed dial for all the world leaders. One call and you can straighten them right out.


These statements came from govt approved experts: 
"We need to get to 80% herd immunity."
"Vaccines will be 100% effective"
"Masks don't work."
"The vaccinated can't spread the virus."


----------



## sags

Different rules for different viruses at different times.


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> Different rules for different viruses at different times.


All 4 of those statements came from experts and were incorrect. But what's worse is that none of those statements are based on basic medical knowledge that a first year med student is taught.


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Different rules for different viruses at different times.


So why do we still have vaccine passport for people who had their 2nd dose 5 months ago?
For this variant they have zero protection. No neutralizing activity at all


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Majority of the world is still dealing with Delta.
> At exact same time they had spikes last year.
> It is seasonal and peaks are completely independent of their actions.
> 
> Those places where Omicron took over are seeing death and hospitalizations rates plummet.
> Those places where Delta is still dominant are still in trouble.
> 
> Your condescending posts without any basis, or data do not change reality.
> 
> Take example from OptsyEagle. We have vastly different world view but there is nothing wrong with discourse, as long as it is educated, intelligent, and based on facts.
> 
> Don't learn from beaver


 ... sure, to make "1 as in "one"" point, has to write at least half a page to post and on and on and on and on gibberish. And of course, you love OE, he likes playing the good guy referee that goes going nowhere except in a circle like you.

And then there's no need to learn anything from me since I don't need to take courses from FEE.org unlike you, Ukrainiandude and Happily Retired that Eder recruited you Trolls on . Though I do wonder about the latter - so HappilyRetired trolling on CMF? At least he's not being paid like you as an "engineer (of some sorts - sanitary?)" trolling 24/7 on a Covid thread. I truly feel for your employer. No further comments on Ukrainiandude who is smoking his meds in the basement.


----------



## Beaver101

Damain13ster's solution to slow the spread is to test everyone, namely test the wazzoo out of the system and this is what you get:

CP24 - Toronto News | Breaking News Headlines | Weather, Traffic, Sports (Ontario's labs strained by Covid-19 test demand)

Quebec testing centres overwhelmed by the fifth wave of COVID-19

Btw, since you're an early promoter and adoptee to rapid testings (even when WFH), are you selling them on Kijiji Canada for $200 each?

People in Ontario are selling rapid COVID-19 tests online for hundreds of dollars


----------



## sags

My wife got a phone call from a friend who works in an LTC home.

Today, they discovered 3 workers are infected and sent home. The LTC home is in a panic as they have to try to isolate all the residents.

The employees all got infected from Christmas parties. The Omicron variant is not a minor threat to those residents.

Testing is pretty much useless, so I don't see why there is a panic except that people mistakenly believe they can gather in large crowds if tested.

Rapid tests only measure viral load at the time of taking the test. A couple of hours later they can test from negative to positive.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> My wife got a phone call from a friend who works in an LTC home.
> 
> Today, they discovered 3 workers are infected and sent home. The LTC home is in a panic as they have to try to isolate all the residents.
> 
> The employees all got infected from Christmas parties. The Omicron variant is not a minor threat to those residents.
> 
> *Testing is pretty much useless, so I don't see why there is a panic except that people mistakenly believe they can gather in large crowds if tested. *


 ... I think that is the main reason why the rapid tests are flying off the shelf - not only because it's free (as provided by the Ontario government now), but "young" people particularly wants some assurance (even falsely so) that they read as Covid-"negative" so that they can can mingle into large crowds or go partying.



> Rapid tests only measure viral load at the time of taking the test. A couple of hours later they can test from negative to positive.


 ... no kidding. Never mind about false positives. 

The only reliable test remains are the PCR ones done by the governmental "medical labs" which are now overwhelmed re above links from CP24. Even then if the PCR tests come out as positive, do you think people will "obediently" isolate at home? Laughable. Covid-19 is now becoming as much as a social (behavioural) disease as a viral one.


----------



## HappilyRetired

If you took Ivermectin and got Covid it would be headline news, but if you were tripled vaxxed and got Covid that would be considered normal. 😂


----------



## james4beach

I'm in a big city our west, and when I'm walking on the downtown streets it's pretty clear there are many tourists here visiting from eastern Canada. I overhear the conversations. They're tourists.

I don't know where they are visiting from, but I'm not too happy to have tourists flying into here while the covid numbers are surging like crazy.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> I'm in a big city our west, and when I'm walking on the downtown streets it's pretty clear there are many tourists here visiting from eastern Canada. I overhear the conversations. They're tourists.
> 
> I don't know where they are visiting from, but I'm not too happy to have tourists flying into here while the covid numbers are surging like crazy.


Why are you walking on the downtown streets?


----------



## sags

Strange that all of a sudden, the WHO agency is demanding China reveal the origin of the virus.

First they said it was most certainly passed from a bat. Then they said there was a small chance it came from somewhere else.

Now they want China to tell them the origin so they can prepare for future mutations.

Conservative MPs are refusing to attend security security meetings until the government reveals what happened in the high level Winnipeg lab that led to Chinese scientists were walked out by the RCMP. Those scientists are now popping up in publications in China and have affiliations with the Chinese military.

I suspected early on the virus was enhanced in the Wuhan lab and somehow escaped.. All the evidence pointed to an origin in Wuhan in the area around the lab.

China obstructed investigations and refuse to provide early data on the virus, which they said was somehow lost.

It is long past time for China to tell the world what we are dealing with, so scientists can try to stop the mutations.









Conservatives boycott security committee over refusal to release docs on fired scientists


Erin O'Toole is refusing to name Conservative members to the national security and intelligence committee of parliamentarians.




www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Beaver101

^ Good luck on seeing any results with both of the above "investigations" (WHO & Canada's internal NSICOP) ... cause of both incidents are like the mystery in the disappearance of flight MH370 ... unknown to this day.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Good luck on seeing any results with both of the above "investigations" (WHO & Canada's internal NSICOP) ... cause of both incidents are like the mystery in the disappearance of flight MH370 ... unknown to this day.


Trudeau had no interest in finding out what happened. The people responsible were quietly removed, no one was charged, and no investigation was done. The media did their job and pretended that it didn't happen.


----------



## Beaver101

HappilyRetired said:


> Trudeau had no interest in finding out what happened. The people responsible were quietly removed, no one was charged, and no investigation was done. The media did their job and pretended that it didn't happen.


 ... did you not read that simple link? The investigations are with the police aka RCMP so stop bullsh1tting or trying to be facetious.


----------



## damian13ster

The results of massive Omicron wave in London:


----------



## sags

Those are ventilator beds, not total hospitalizations due to covid. Many of those patients don't survive.

The second wave started in October and didn't peak until 3 months later in January.

It is too early in the Omicron outbreak to draw any conclusions.


----------



## damian13ster

Daily dose of fantastic news:


----------



## sags

Cases and hospitalizations are increasing rapidly in Ontario and Quebec, so it is either Omicron is more severe than thought or Delta is still circulating widely.


----------



## OptsyEagle

sags said:


> Cases and hospitalizations are increasing rapidly in Ontario and Quebec, so it is either Omicron is more severe than thought or Delta is still circulating widely.


In other words what you are saying is we don't know.

I agree, knowing what we don't know is a good start. I also agree that we do need to find out.


----------



## damian13ster

You also have to take what sags says with a grain of salt (well, a full kilo would be more appropriate). Just notice how he never uses numbers, but rather descriptive words:

Here is the data:


----------



## sags

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-dec-22-2021-business-supports-omicron-1.6294869











With new cases above 6,000, Quebec premier hints at 'very difficult choices' he'll announce Wednesday


Faced with record-breaking daily COVID-19 infections, Quebec Premier François Legault will outline the province’s next steps in the pandemic response at a press conference at 6pm Wednesday.




montreal.ctvnews.ca


----------



## damian13ster

More great news from Quebec:










It does appear that Omicron is finally starting to take over (unfortunately Quebec has extremely poor data re variants).
Hospitalizations are shorter than before, with higher turnover. ICU numbers also not increasing.
All of it supports data seen in SA and UK, where avg hospitalization from Omicron was 2.4 days vs 8 days for Delta


----------



## sags

Cases and hospitalizations are rising in the UK.









COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the UK 2022 | Statista


As of August 11, 2022, over 23.4 million people in the United Kingdom had tested positive for COVID-19 with 3,948 cases reported on that day.




www.statista.com


----------



## damian13ster

sags said:


> Cases and hospitalizations are rising in the UK.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the UK 2022 | Statista
> 
> 
> As of August 11, 2022, over 23.4 million people in the United Kingdom had tested positive for COVID-19 with 3,948 cases reported on that day.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com


For those who don't fact-check sags, this is the stat from the website he referred (hospitalizations are the black line if you are also confused by not seeing them rise):










And here is directly from UK government, with more recent data:


----------



## sags

_*The daily case count on Wednesday shattered the new record set on Tuesday of 5,043 cases, rising to 6,361.

Hospital capacity is an increasing concern for the province, with COVID-19 patients filling hospital beds across the province.*

Another 76 people were admitted to hospital Wednesday. Forty-six patients were discharged in the last 24 hours, representing an overall increase of 30 hospitalizations from the previous day.

There are now 445 people in hospital across Quebec._


----------



## Beaver101

^ A lockdown is inevitable for Ontario. Curfew first for Quebec.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> Why are you walking on the downtown streets?


Why wouldn't I? This is where I live.


----------



## damian13ster

Holy ****, the antiviral pills from Merck and Pfizer are outrageously expensive. And supposedly you are supposed to take 6 of them daily?


----------



## Beaver101

^ Even you can afford them, given the limited supply, I'm certain Pfizer is going to come up with some criteria(s) to ration them. First and foremost, reserve them only for those who were vaxxed and be sick enough for their medication(s) to be effective.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Omicron wave appears milder, but concern remains — BBC News


The risk of needing hospital treatment could be 30 - 70% lower with Omicron than other variants.




apple.news





Somewhat of positive news. But we’re not out of the woods yet.


----------



## damian13ster

I really like how the header says 30-70%, and within the same article there is this:

It showed people were 70-80% less likely to need hospital treatment, depending on whether Omicron is compared to previous waves, or other variants currently circulating.


----------



## diharv

.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> I really like how the header says 30-70%, and within the same article there is this:
> 
> It showed people were 70-80% less likely to need hospital treatment, depending on whether Omicron is compared to previous waves, or other variants currently circulating.


The article is trying to give a quick headline to a situation analyzed by two highly reputable organizations trying to study all this in its early stages:

Vaccinated with 3 doses of AstraZeneca (AZ)
Vaccinated with 3 doses of Pfizer/Moderna (PF/MD)
Vaccinated with 2 doses of AZ
Vaccinated with 2 doses of PF/MD
Vaccinated with 1 dose of AZ
Vaccinated with 1 dose of PF/MD
Those doses with less then 14 days
Unvaccinated but previously infected
Unvaccinated and high likelihood they were previously infected.
Unvaccinated

Let's give them some slack on not being able to end a study like that with one single number.

The good news is that everyone, vaccinated and unvaccinated, seem to be seeing a less severe outcome (hospitalization) with Omicron compared to Delta. It also appears that the vaccines do offer increased protection from severe outcome from Omicron infection. It is also obvious that the risk of hospitalization when infected by Omicron is reduced, but it is not zero. We are now awaiting on the information on deaths.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I will add to the above that the Imperial College of London also observed Omicron's reduced ability to reproduce in and do equivalent damage to the lungs, as was first observed by the University of Hong Kong.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

30%~70% less hospitalization however the infectious rate is much higher so we still risk flooding the hospitals.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Mortgage u/w said:


> 30%~70% less hospitalization however the infectious rate is much higher so we still risk flooding the hospitals.


By the way, does anyone want to guess which group of people obtained the higher reduction in severity from Omicron and which group of people obtain the lower level?

OK. I won't leave you hanging. The unvaccinated did achieve around a 30% reduction in severity (hospitalization) of Omicron compared to Delta and the fully vaccinated are experiencing the higher level of reduced chance of hospitalization.

Since the vaccines protected the vaccinated considerably against Delta, if this 70% reduction against Omicron is true, I can't see many deaths happening from that very large group. I will await the actual numbers but it does look very promising.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> OK. I won't leave you hanging. The unvaccinated did achieve around a 30% reduction in severity (hospitalization) of Omicron compared to Delta and the fully vaccinated are experiencing the higher level of reduced chance of hospitalization.
> 
> Since the vaccines protected the vaccinated considerably against Delta, if this 70% reduction against Omicron is true, I can't see many deaths happening from that very large group. I will await the actual numbers but it does look very promising.


The likely large surge of cases from the holidays will provide much more data and hopefully the indicators of being less severe are true. On the flip side, I hope we don't get a number of new variant spin offs due to the high amount of new case loads.


----------



## OptsyEagle

and the more pressing problem right now is that we are still fighting the Delta variant. That seems to be the bigger and more current issue for our hospitals right now. We really need to get rid of that variant.

I am optimistic that our hospitals will be OK. That is because our experience with a Delta surge, or lack of it from Thanksgiving, gives me hope that we have finally hit a level of vaccination where spread from Delta can be handled by our hospitals. Most of the case surge we are seeing in the daily numbers are from the more milder Omicron virus, with a much smaller number, of the more dangerous Delta cases being produced.

So even though Christmas will probably see more social gathering then Thanksgiving, I am hopeful that our level of community vaccination will protect our hospitals from the Delta and Omicron cases will not become too big of hospital problem. I will admit that there is a lot more hope in there then knowledge but that is my feeling right now.


----------



## sags

I read a report today that the unvaccinated only receive an 11% reduction in the risk of severity by Omicron over Delta, and the less severe symptoms being reported are suspected to be for vaccinated people with residual immunity levels. The un-vaccinated have zero immunity levels and are the ones in ICUs.

It seems the numbers are all over the place but I don't think they matter much because every expert and doctor is saying the same thing.

Get vaccinated because the un-vaccinated are going to get hit hard.

To people comparing Omicron to a cold, I have heard several doctors say..._we don't admit people to the hospital for a cold. This isn't a cold._


----------



## OptsyEagle

It's not a cold, it is Covid-19, but if you catch it and only have a few sniffles and a runny nose and then recover it will feel a lot like a cold. The anti-cold and pro-cold groups, I believe, are simply misunderstanding each other and in either case it is fairly irrelevant.

The numbers are all over the place because there are wayyyy too many differences now in every group we want to look at. I gave a quick remark about the vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated but trust me, if you read the studies there are many, many, many differences they were grappling with when trying to get to the numbers even I gave. Vaccination, type of vaccine, number of doses of vaccine, age of each vaccinated, health of each vaccinated, what hemisphere each vaccinated is in. Then we have the unvaccinated and the previously infected and you can start to get a picture of the problem with two numbers ever being able to confirm each other precisely.

That is the problem. We knew we would be seeing this problem, so we need to do our best to get the right message not the right number. As always, on this board, I imagine the message will be whatever each person wants it to be and I am sure as always, they will have no problem finding something to justify their opinions.


----------



## sags

A larger UK study shows there is no reduction in severity between the Omicron and Delta variants.

The study still needs to be peer reviewed.

_Researchers at Imperial College London compared 11,329 people with confirmed or likely Omicron infections with nearly 200,000 people infected with other variants. So far, according to a report issued ahead of peer review and updated on Monday, they see "no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection." _









Omicron infections appear no less severe than Delta; COVID-19 lowers sperm count, motility


The following is a summary of some recent studies on COVID-19. They include research that warrants further study to corroborate the findings and that has yet to be certified by peer review.




www.reuters.com


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> Get vaccinated because the un-vaccinated are going to get hit hard.


When, exactly?
2 more years?


----------



## HappilyRetired

When they stop counting fatalities the pandemic is officially over.


----------



## Money172375

Found out two of my friends‘ kids have COVID. A 17 year old and a 3 year old.  No other cases in the family yet. Test results taking 3-4 days in Ontario.


----------



## damian13ster

OptsyEagle said:


> By the way, does anyone want to guess which group of people obtained the higher reduction in severity from Omicron and which group of people obtain the lower level?
> 
> OK. I won't leave you hanging. The unvaccinated did achieve around a 30% reduction in severity (hospitalization) of Omicron compared to Delta and the fully vaccinated are experiencing the higher level of reduced chance of hospitalization.
> 
> Since the vaccines protected the vaccinated considerably against Delta, if this 70% reduction against Omicron is true, I can't see many deaths happening from that very large group. I will await the actual numbers but it does look very promising.


Again, where is everyone getting the 30% reduction for unvaccinated?

I have seen 70-80% reduction in hospitalizations and then if someone does end up in a hospital there is 30% reduction in going to ICU.

Quebec:
While Omicron appears to spreading rapidly throughout the province, and the rest of Canada, Quebec's health minister said the variant's effect has not been felt in hospitals. Most of the people who end up in hospital are affected by the Delta variant, he told a news conference on Wednesday.


----------



## OptsyEagle

damian13ster said:


> Again, where is everyone getting the 30% reduction for unvaccinated?


It's the raw data from the Imperial College of London study from the BBC article. Table 3 seems to have the best stuff. Difficult to read and understand but the hazard ratio (HR) is the risk of hospitalization for Omicron compared to Delta. In the corrected data you see the unvaccinated ratio at 0.76, which indicates a 24% reduction and for 2 doses of Pfizer/Moderna after 14 days you get an HR of 0.26 or a 74% reduction.

Again, there is a lot more in there to grapple with but those are the two numbers I think say the most.



https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-22-COVID19-Report-50.pdf



The message I take away from these studies is that it appears we all received a gift from Santa Claus this year and if you want to sleep a little better get vaccinated.

Note: The data on the 3rd dose is a little perplexing. I suspect the reason for the increased risk is more from the fact that the people who have received the 3rd dose are much older then the average and have more comorbidities, and as importantly, because they had so few hospitalizations in that group to allow them to develop an accurate conclusion. The reduced number of hospitalizations might be telling a better story, if you know what I mean, but in any case, I will temporarily call it inconclusive for the need of a 3rd dose.


----------



## damian13ster

In the very first paragraph of the study is that 40-45% stay in hospital for less than one day. 20-25% is any attendance in the hospital.
What is that 20-25% metric? They include people who are just visitors?

Hospitalisation was defined as a recorded attendance at hospital (including Accident and Emergency departments) occurring up to 14 days after a positive COVID-19 PCR test 










This excerpt is extremely confusing. Average hospitalization length for delta is 8h, and around 5h for Omicron?


----------



## OptsyEagle

Raw study data is always confusing. It worked very well to help me get to sleep last night and it was not from the positive results, just the reading of it. lol.

Right or wrong I took the 40% to 45% reduction as the final verdict for all of the UK. So adding vaccinated with unvaccinated, infected with not previously infected, 1 day in the hospital or more then 1 day in the hospital.

So basically that 40% to 45% reduction was the gift Santa Claus gave to all of us. The average reduction. As always some kids get better gifts then others. So I think you need to go deeper into the study to find out what was truly under the tree for your category.


----------



## damian13ster

Yeah. UK tends to have extremely confusing data.
You wouldn't believe how they actually measure deaths....


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Raw study data is always confusing.


Not really confusing when you remember you are working on data that represents an incomplete picture. Sure, early numbers might give good indicators but shouldn't be used for broad conclusions.


----------



## sags

Statistics often don't tell the underlying story, so I pay special attention to what the people in the middle of the battle against covid are saying.

An ER nurse was on CNN today and this is what she said when asked about the difference between vaccinated and un-vaccinated patients she is seeing in the ER.

The un-vaccinated......the few who can still speak, say the wish they had gotten the vaccination. Almost all of them are gasping for breath and we intake them for breathing assistance. They need immediate oxygen therapy and some will need ventilators.

The vaccinated......have most often received a positive test and are coming in concerned about what this means. They are anxious and panicked and we settle them down, talk to them about possible symptoms they might experience and send them home.

That is the "real life" difference between the vaccinated and un-vaccinated that isn't captured in a blurry of statistics.

They are all hospital visits, but the degree of severity is completely different.


----------



## damian13ster

incredibly encouraging data from Kingston, Ontario.
They had Omicron take over the earliest among Ontario region. Hospitalizations dropping rapidly and now at lowest level in a month


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Here are today's highlights from the Montreal Gazette. Note bolded headlines.


STM orders bus drivers to wear masks again, bans singing, wind instruments in métro stations
Omicron cases at much lower risk of hospital admission, U.K. says
*Quebec cuts surgeries to free up beds ahead of expected hospitalization surge in Montreal*
Province tightens visitor rules at long-term care homes (CHSLDs) and private seniors’ residences
With capacity limits cut in half, Quebec allows stores to stay open later after Christmas
Charts: current situation vs. one year ago; hospitalizations – vaccinated vs. unvaccinated
*Quebec cases soar to 9,397, with 28 more people in hospitals*
*Montreal cases growing exponentially, especially among people 18-44, Drouin says*
Quebecers won’t ‘give up the battle against this damn virus,’ Dubé says
Laval-area Liberal MP censured for defying his own party’s advice on non-essential travel
Quebec is banking on people to do what’s right despite COVID surge, experts say
FAQ: How can Montrealers protect themselves from Omicron?


----------



## damian13ster

'ahead of expected hospitalizations surge in Montreal'
That's the problem - cutting health care services just in case. Despite overwhelming evidence from all regions where Omicron takes over that there is no hospitalization surge.
We are ran by idiots that will kill more people just in case, and at the same time fire 500 healthcare workers.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Some "scientific" data for the non-believers:


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> incredibly encouraging data from Kingston, Ontario.
> They had Omicron take over the earliest among Ontario region.* Hospitalizations dropping rapidly and now at lowest level in a month*


 ... WOW, area of Kingston works backward. And where's the link? 

If the Kingston's main hospital doesn't have enough Covid patients and the healthcare workers are picking their nose there, then all the reasons to send the rest of the province (Ontario) Covid patients over there. Happy now ... no, make that deliriously cheerful.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> 'ahead of expected hospitalizations surge in Montreal'
> That's the problem - cutting health care services just in case. Despite overwhelming evidence from all regions where Omicron takes over that there is no hospitalization surge.
> We are ran by idiots that will kill more people just in case, and at the same time fire 500 healthcare workers.


 ... duh, but you just stated less than a minute ago in your post #7741 that "_Hospitalisations (are) *dropping rapidly over at Kingston *and now at lowest level in a month" _so what your problem with healthcare services cut ... just send them over to Kingston where the healthcare workers aren't busy enough due to *flood of outgoing* (not "incoming" btw) *hospitalisations.*

Also, what's your concern with hospitalisations happening in Ontario when you're not even a resident here. Like you care.


----------



## james4beach

Mortgage u/w said:


> Some "scientific" data for the non-believers:


Nice graphic. That shows what the experts have been saying:

Omicron (and delta for that matter) can infect both vaccinated and unvaccinated. But vaccination offers *some* protection, and reduces the chance of ending up in the hospital or having severe covid. Just look at how badly this wave is hitting the non vaccinated, wow.


----------



## damian13ster

This data is not for Omicron.
It does confirm the numbers we had from UK's comprehensive reporting that unvaccinated are 4-5 times more likely to be hospitalized with Delta than unvaccinated.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

On a more cheerful note, the experts have located Santa! Merry Christmas!









Official NORAD Santa Tracker


Follow Santa Claus as he makes his magical journey around the world!




www.noradsanta.org


----------



## damian13ster

ICUs in Ontario starting to drop.
Not a single patient with Omicron in ICU


----------



## sags

ICU units are struggling to keep up withi incoming patient levels and untrained staff have been added to support critical care nurses and staff.









Ontario ICU's filling up with COVID-19 patients


Critical care nurse Birgit Umaigba explains why nurses are struggling to keep up with demand in Ontario’s ICU's.




www.cp24.com


----------



## damian13ster

Huh? The numbers in ICU just dropped.

Maybe if jackasses didn't fire healthcare workers for choosing not to go ahead with medical procedure they wouldn't have problems. Unfortunately we have idiots in charge.









Omicron up to 70% less likely to cause hospitalization than delta variant, UK government study finds


Of those admitted to hospital with omicron, 17 people had received their boosters, 74 were double vaccinated, and 27 were unvaccinated.




www.cnbc.com






People with omicron are up to 70% less likely to require admission to hospital than those with the delta variant, according to a U.K. government study.
Of those admitted to hospital with omicron, 17 people had received their boosters, 74 were double vaccinated, and 27 were unvaccinated.
The numbers are uncertain though. There is not enough people in hospitals due to Omicron to give high statistical significance. Not enough people getting sick


----------



## Mortgage u/w

damian13ster said:


> ICUs in Ontario starting to drop.
> Not a single patient with Omicron in ICU





sags said:


> ICU units are struggling to keep up withi incoming patient levels and untrained staff have been added to support critical care nurses and staff.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario ICU's filling up with COVID-19 patients
> 
> 
> Critical care nurse Birgit Umaigba explains why nurses are struggling to keep up with demand in Ontario’s ICU's.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cp24.com


So who’s got the truth??


----------



## damian13ster

Mortgage u/w said:


> So who’s got the truth??


Probably government of Ontario





Datasets - Ontario Data Catalogue







covid-19.ontario.ca














We really need to help Omicron push out Delta. Not a single person in ICU in Ontario from Omicron. After having 100k+ cases per day UK doesn't even have enough sick people to give statistically significant data for Omicron.

This is looking absolutely fantastic.


----------



## Beaver101

Mortgage u/w said:


> On a more cheerful note, the experts have located Santa! Merry Christmas!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Official NORAD Santa Tracker
> 
> 
> Follow Santa Claus as he makes his magical journey around the world!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.noradsanta.org


 ... Merry Christmas (soon) too!


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Probably government of Ontario
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Datasets - Ontario Data Catalogue
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid-19.ontario.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 22552
> 
> 
> *We really need to help Omicron push out Delta. Not a single person in ICU in Ontario from Omicron. After having 100k+ cases per day UK doesn't even have enough sick people to give statistically significant data for Omicron.
> 
> This is looking absolutely fantastic.*


 ... a pathetic provincial posting alien.


----------



## sags

The wife got some bad news today in the retirement home.

A resident went out with family last Sunday and has now tested positive for covid.

Of course, she has interacted with other residents and many staff for 5 days, so now two others are suspected of having covid and await test results.

The wife also says many residents are going out tomorrow to have dinner with family. If they have covid they can spread it around too.

So much for precautions. My wife refused to clean the infected resident's room unless she had a form fitted N95 mask provided. The company provided one.

They are also testing rapid tests every day, for as long as the supply lasts. After that........who knows.

All these residents are in their 80s or older. Some are not in great physical health and are waiting for openings in LTC homes.

It is only a matter of time until the staff are all sick and the families will have to come in and look after their old folks.

People who think the virus can roll through the population and everything will be honky dorey have their heads stuck way up their butts.


----------



## damian13ster

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...spital-making/

Up to one in three Covid patients may have caught the illness in hospital, official figures show - amid warnings over any use of data to justify new lockdown restrictions.

At the peak this week, 31 per cent of Covid patients included in the NHS' daily admission figures for London had already been in the hospital for more than a week before testing positive, suggesting transmission occurred on the ward.

*Separate figures show that of more than 6,000 patients in hospitals across England who have tested positive for coronavirus, 29 per cent of them are primarily being treated by doctors for other conditions.*


----------



## sags

The Omicron variant isn't pushing out the Delta. Both are now circulating and re-infections are rising.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The wife got some bad news today in the retirement home.
> 
> A resident went out with family last Sunday and has now tested positive for covid.
> 
> Of course, she has interacted with other residents and many staff for 5 days, so now two others are suspected of having covid and await test results.
> 
> The wife also says many residents are going out tomorrow to have dinner with family. If they have covid they can spread it around too.
> 
> So much for precautions. My wife refused to clean the infected resident's room unless she had a form fitted N95 mask provided. The company provided one.
> 
> They are also testing rapid tests every day, for as long as the supply lasts. After that........who knows.
> 
> All these residents are in their 80s or older. Some are not in great physical health and are waiting for openings in LTC homes.


 ... I thought LTC workers and visitors (limited to 1/2?) have to test (twice a week?) and be "negative " before entry to the homes as per Rod's announcement a couple of weeks ago? I would question on the LTC's "circuit breaker" given there's an outbreak now.



> It is only a matter of time until the staff are all sick and the families will have to come in and look after their old folks.


 ... unfortunately. Meanwhile, the "caring (really?) posters" are fighting for the rights of a minority that they don't have any relations to other than a loud mouth.



> People who think the virus can roll through the population and everything will be honky dorey have their heads stuck way up their butts.


 ... appears that way and some.


----------



## sags

Mortgage u/w said:


> So who’s got the truth??


I will go with the doctors and nurses in the ICUs.

They have no reason to lie about the situation. 

A Provincial government facing re-election in a couple of months might.


----------



## damian13ster

Of course it is. Same way Delta pushed out Beta, Beta pushed out Alpha, etc.
Science is clear on that, facts are clear on that.
You can see it with previous variants, you saw it in RSA, UK, Denmark, US, everywhere in the world.
If you deny science - that's your problem and your problem alone


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> I will go with the doctors and nurses in the ICUs.
> 
> They have no reason to lie about the situation.


We need to hear from both sides, including the ones who were brave enough to lose their jobs for not getting vaccinated. If you're only listening to those who got the shot you only know half the story.


----------



## Numbersman61

HappilyRetired said:


> We need to hear from both sides, including the ones who were brave enough to lose their jobs for not getting vaccinated. If you're only listening to those who got the shot you only know half the story.


Brave is not the word I would have used. Foolish IMHO is more appropriate.


----------



## HappilyRetired

Numbersman61 said:


> Brave is not the word I would have used. Foolish IMHO is more appropriate.


We don't know that. Medical professionals in hospitals have seen both unvaccinated that are sick as well as people who had severe reactions from the shot. You can naively believe that every single person who lost their job are just anti-vax but I doubt that's the case. At least some of them saw something that was so concerning they were willing to lose their job.


----------



## sags

All I have seen or heard are the un-vaccinated talking about their rights, the vaccines weren't tested, and assorted conspiracy theories like the vaccines contain microchips for tracking. Some have been interviewed and did protests but never mentioned witnessing any horrible outcomes from vaccinations.

One would think that would be the first thing they would point to as a good reason to refuse vaccination.

You have to be mired in deep state conspiracy theories to believe global political leaders, researchers, and doctors and nurses are all part of some kind of evil plot against all of mankind, which of course they and their families and friends are part of.


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> All I have seen or heard are the un-vaccinated talking about their rights, the vaccines weren't tested, and assorted conspiracy theories like the vaccines contain microchips for tracking. Some have been interviewed and did protests but never mentioned witnessing any horrible outcomes from vaccinations.
> 
> One would think that would be the first thing they would point to as a good reason to refuse vaccination.


Thousands of hospital workers have refused the shot and yet you have no idea why? But you seem to be aware of all the idiotic conspiracy theories from a few on the fringe.

Somehow I'm not surprised.


----------



## sags

They state why publicly and the reasons have nothing to do with terrible reactions to vaccines they have witnessed.

Do you have any evidence to offer otherwise, or is all of the media also part of the global conspiracy ?


----------



## damian13ster

And the reason we believe human rights can't be abused is not because we believe specific medical intervention is unequivocally bad, yet you still make such equivalency. Hypocritical much?


----------



## HappilyRetired

sags said:


> They state why publicly and the reasons have nothing to do with terrible reactions to vaccines they have witnessed.


So you know for sure why all of them refused the vaccine? That's highly unlikely.


----------



## james4beach

Can someone explain to me how a person living in an apartment complex can go maskless in common areas (among elderly people etc) in the middle of an outbreak that's spreading like wildfire?

What is the thought process behind that?

For some reason, during this Christmas holiday, I'm seeing more youngish adults (in their 20s) not wearing masks in my building. The building and the province both require it. Starting tomorrow I will start politely asking people to wear masks. With each passing day, I plan to increase the forcefulness of that suggestion / reminder.


----------



## damian13ster

james4beach said:


> Can someone explain to me how a person living in an apartment complex can go maskless in common areas (among elderly people etc) in the middle of an outbreak that's spreading like wildfire?
> 
> What is the thought process behind that?
> 
> For some reason, during this Christmas holiday, I'm seeing more youngish adults (in their 20s) not wearing masks in my building. The building and the province both require it. Starting tomorrow I will start politely asking people to wear masks. With each passing day, I plan to increase the forcefulness of that suggestion / reminder.











Omicron’s Spread Across Hotel Hall Highlights Transmission Worry


The omicron variant spread among two fully vaccinated travelers across the hallway of a Hong Kong quarantine hotel, underscoring why the highly mutated coronavirus strain is unnerving health authorities.




www.bloomberg.com





Maybe they read this and just gave up? 😅 Two fully vaccinated people infecting each other without ever leaving respective rooms.

I think wearing masks is not to much to ask btw


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> Can someone explain to me how a person living in an apartment complex can go maskless in common areas (among elderly people etc) in the middle of an outbreak that's spreading like wildfire?
> 
> *What is the thought process behind that?*
> 
> For some reason, during this Christmas holiday, I'm seeing more youngish adults (in their 20s) not wearing masks in my building. The building and the province both require it. Starting tomorrow I will start politely asking people to wear masks. With each passing day, I plan to increase the forcefulness of that suggestion / reminder.


 ... first question is what is your apartment/condo management doing about it? Any signage or just that there're no by-laws for them to post? 

As for the reality, these 20 year olds (and not just this age bracket) don't give a rataxx' sh1t since Covid is just for seniors and sheep people.

Will not suggest you start asking people wearing masks - even politely unless you're prepared for a confrontation. And have your camera phone with you.


----------



## Beaver101

Save me some trouble/work having to respond individually to these enablers in continuous-pandemic-denial-mode (damian13ster, Happily Retired, Eder, Ukrainiandude, MrMatt, and KaeJS- no order of significance thus far) on "Christmas" Day:

** YAWNS **

I do hope you guys get paid over-time. LMAO.

.


----------



## Beaver101

Ontario tops 10,000 new COVID-19 cases in a day for the first time

In the meantime, where's Ford or Elliott? I'm guessing Ontario is well below the numbers of Florida with nothing to say about our healthcare capacity. 

I hope there're enough morgues in Ontario once this flood by-passes ICU.


----------



## sags

Ford only pops up once in awhile for a photo opp or a "golly gee shucks" press conference.

Meanwhile in Ontario..........

*The latest data also show eight more outbreaks in long-terms care homes, for a total of 41 current outbreaks. There are also 3 more retirement home outbreaks, bringing that total to nine, and 12 more hospital outbreaks, for a total of 26 hospitals with an ongoing outbreak. *

At my wife's retirement home, the residents still come and go and visitors keep coming in.........as per Ontario's rules.

Yesterday, she was the only employee in housekeeping. Nobody else would come in to work, even for 2 1/2 times pay.

The residents will end up looking after each other, if Ford doesn't get serious with restrictions to protect the most vulnerable population.

All of Ford's focus is on the GTA where he needs the votes to prop up his falling poll numbers.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Didn't Ford gave the LTC portfolio to Rod Phillips [the finance minister who got sacked for his fake working hard at home whilst actually bathing in the Caribbeans] and then called back for a second chance? No doubt Ford is going to lose the next elections if he keeps hiding ... and this kind of fiascos keep piling up including his beloved Ms Haynes turned anti-vaxxing spewer.


----------



## damian13ster

The only ones not seeing records are Alberta and Saskatchewan.
All praise Kenney and Moe!

And in all seriousness, waves are seasonal. Nothing can be done about them. Politicians virtue signaling and destroying businesses to pretend they can do anything is not helpful.


----------



## damian13ster

‘Dodgy data’ used in push for tighter Covid restrictions


Health chief accused of disseminating misleading statistics on hospitalisations that overstated the risk from omicron




www.telegraph.co.uk





One of Britain’s most senior health advisers has been accused of disseminating “dodgy data” that inflated the potential risk of omicron.

Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), is understood to have been the source of a contested claim by Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, that there is typically a 17-day lag between patients becoming infected and requiring hospitalisation.

However, independent experts pointed to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, which suggested an average delay of nine or 10 days.

The claim by Mr Javid was seen as an attempt to strengthen the case for urgent new Covid-19 restrictions, on the basis that the country could be on the brink of a major spike in hospitalisations due to omicron.

Dr Harries has claimed that omicron was “probably the most significant threat we’ve had since the start of the pandemic”.

Health and scientific advisers have been pushing for lockdown measures and Boris Johnson will have to urgently decide whether or not to impose new restrictions before the New Year.

However, government sources have suggested that is now unlikely, based on the latest data and a wall of opposition from Conservative backbenchers and ministers.

The latest UKHSA data show that people infected with the variant were between 50 and 70 per cent less likely to be admitted to hospital than with delta. Daily meetings of the Cabinet’s Covid Operations committee will resume on Monday.

At the time of Mr Javid’s claim last weekend, despite soaring cases, only 85 people were in hospital with confirmed omicron, a figure that has since risen to 366.

Simon Briscoe, a former Treasury statistician, said that the 17-day figure appeared to be either a “deliberate statistical sleight of hand designed to deceive, or incompetence”.


----------



## sags

A 400% increase in Omicron hospitalizations already is no big deal ?


----------



## damian13ster

Yep, when it goes from 1 to 5 it is 400% increase and not a big deal.

The first case was ∞ % increase!!!
∞ % increase!! - The world is ending!


Dr. Kieran Moore says as of Tuesday, Omicron’s hospitalization admission rate in Ontario is around 0.15 per cent. None of the 165 patients currently in ICUs across the province are believed to be infected with the variant. That mark is significantly lower than the province’s general COVID-19 hospitalization rate.

You can also say that the only person with severe case of Omicron in Ontario is fully vaccinated and boosted - equally meaningless fact to draw conclusion from, given how many health problems the person has.


----------



## damian13ster

During an interview with CTV News Ottawa on Friday, Pichora said Kingston’s earlier high hospitalization rates have also eased.

Previous cases in ICU have so far been driving by the Delta variant. Now, as the region's COVID-19 transmission is driven by the Omicron variant, ICU pressures have eased.

ICU pressure easing as Omicron is taking over - who could have predicted that......


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> A 400% increase in Omicron hospitalizations already is no big deal ?


400% of nothing is still nothing.


----------



## sags

The wife's employer has locked down the retirement home.

A resident went out last week and returned with covid. She is a 90 year old diabetic so it may not go well for her.

She infected 2 other residents and 3 staff members so far. All residents are locked down in their rooms and getting tested.

The workers have to quarantine for 14 days with their entire families and anyone they were in contact with over Christmas.

The home is now short of workers, and have to do extra cleaning and sterilizing. Everyone has to wear an N95 mask and a face shield now.

it isn't just happening in my wife's retirement home. She has friends in LTC and retirement homes who say it is just as bad or worse.

This is what no restrictions so people could celebrate Christmas with their families looks like in real life.


----------



## james4beach

The MicroCOVID site has good modelling which takes into account a few factors, to estimate the prevalence of the disease in the broad population (what % of people have covid).

Omicron is spreading like wildfire and it shows in the prevalence numbers for some US cities. The same could happen in Canada and all of us should be vigilant, because a ton of people are going to get sick in the next few days. I have stopped all social meetings and now only wear a CAN95 indoors when shopping and in the public areas of my building.

New York City has 9.7% prevalence, that means 1 in 10 people have COVID.
Montreal QC is at 5.0%
Toronto is at 1.8%
Vancouver is at 1.6%

Montreal is already alarmingly high. I wonder if we're going to see our cities get up to the 10% prevalence rate like the US has.

*This isn't inevitable*. The spread of covid can be easily controlled through careful behaviours. You just have to stop gathering with people who aren't part of your household.


----------



## damian13ster

Not if it travels through closed doors and across corridors like in quarantine hotels in Hongkong.

The pandemic is over. Nothing more can be done. Vaccines don't work against Omicron (Biontech CEO came out and said the 43rd dose won't stop Omicron), cloth masks don't work, even closed doors don't work. It is now endemic. Move on. Start healing years of setback in education. Start healing mental health issues created. Start getting local business back on its feet after it had restrictions placed on its neck. Move on and let's start healing.


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> This is what no restrictions so people could celebrate Christmas with their families looks like in real life.


Yeah, I hope everyone had lots of fun.

Public Health authorities didn't put in any restrictions because they thought it was more important that people had gatherings and parties for Christmas.

Now society will pay the price. Hope the parties were worth it. How many doctors and nurses across Canada do you think are going to quit their profession in the coming years? I'm guessing we will lose tens of thousands of doctors and nurses. They have PTSD and they've been like soldiers fighting on the front lines.

Everyone parties and has fun dinners with friends, and then show up at the doctors and expect treatment.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The wife's employer has locked down the retirement home.
> 
> *A resident went out last week and returned with covid. She is a 90 year old diabetic so it may not go well for her.*
> 
> She infected 2 other residents and 3 staff members so far. All residents are locked down in their rooms and getting tested.
> 
> The workers have to quarantine for 14 days with their entire families and anyone they were in contact with over Christmas.
> 
> The home is now short of workers, and have to do extra cleaning and sterilizing. Everyone has to wear an N95 mask and a face shield now.
> 
> it isn't just happening in my wife's retirement home. She has friends in LTC and retirement homes who say it is just as bad or worse.
> 
> This is what no restrictions so people could celebrate Christmas with their families looks like in real life.


 ... according to this news summary:

*



More restrictions in long-term care homes

Click to expand...

*


> _These comments come as the Ontario government implements more restrictions for long-term care settings. On Dec. 17, the following measure come into effect:_
> 
> _Testing of all staff, students, volunteers, and caregivers, regardless of vaccination status, at least twice a week._
> _All visitors and support workers who provide essential services to a resident or to the facility will require a negative test upon entry, unless they had a negative test the day before._
> _Caregivers need to be fully vaccinated, unless they have a valid medical exemption or if it is a palliative end-of-life situation (a first dose by Dec. 20 and all doses are required by Feb. 21, 2022)._
> _Indoor visits will be limited to a maximum of two people per resident at a time and outdoor visits are limited to up to four people._
> _Cohorting of residents for higher-risk activities, such as singing and dancing. Large social activities are discouraged._
> _*Social day trips will be limited to residents who are fully vaccinated and they must be screened upon their return.*_
> _*Overnight absences for social purposes will be suspended, regardless of the resident's vaccination status.*_
> _For seniors in retirement homes, effective Dec. 22, staff, volunteers, contractors and essential caregivers will be required to take rapid antigen tests two times per week, regardless of vaccination status. It is also "strongly encouraged" that visitors are restricted to those who are fully vaccinated._


 ... it appears not only are the "mobile" residents there (along with their families) are not paying heed, management are not enforcing the rules either.

If anyone dies there from an outbreak caused by that 90 year old lady (if she survives), I can see lawsuits flying left, right, and center.

But first thing is why isn't anyone complaining to the LTC ministry about the rules being flouted? Would it take a nice big fine for management to put their foot down on the rules? What happens if a lockdown isn't enough, then what? How about booting out such residents who can't adhere to the (temporary) rules during these challenging times?


----------



## Spudd

Beaver101 said:


> ... according to this news summary:
> 
> ... it appears not only are the "mobile" residents there (along with their families) are not paying heed, management are not enforcing the rules either.
> 
> If anyone dies there from an outbreak caused by that 90 year old lady (if she survives), I can see lawsuits flying left, right, and center.
> 
> But first thing is why isn't anyone complaining to the LTC ministry about the rules being flouted? Would it take a nice big fine for management to put their foot down on the rules? What happens if a lockdown isn't enough, then what? How about booting out such residents who can't adhere to the (temporary) rules during these challenging times?


How do you know they're flouting the rules? Sags didn't say if the 90-year-old was fully vaccinated or not, but since she lives in a retirement home, odds are that she is. I'm sure she was screened upon her return but that is only asking them if they have any symptoms and taking their temperature. In a social day visit (say her family picked her up at 10am and returned her at 4pm) she wouldn't have time to have developed symptoms by the time she returned to the home.


----------



## damian13ster

The World Bank estimates that 97 million people across the globe fell into poverty due to the pandemic in 2020, living on less than $2 a day. Additionally, 2020 led to a historic setback in the fight against global poverty, with the number of the world's poorest rising for the first time in over 20 years, according to the World Bank. 

Although perhaps that should be in politics since it is politicians that pushed 100 million people into poverty?


----------



## Money172375

I’m down in Florida. dealing with a flood from early 2020. We drove down. No request to see our vax at the border.
A different world Down here. Virtually no masks indoors. Just the employees at the grocery store. About 5% of the shoppers. No masks evident anywhere else. Restaurants, gyms, bars all full. Lots of signage for New Years parties and events.

my friend who is trapped in Dubai after testing positive on a Work trip…….found out he got COVID on the flight over. Airline called him and told him he was near a positive case.
so much for masks on flights, pre-testing passengers, vaccinated passengers, superior air filtration on flights. Numerous layers of protection and he still got sick. Bad luck? Or do any of these methods actually work? I think if you get exposed, you’re gonna get it. my Partial faith in masks is dropping daily. They clearly don’t offer very good protection.

I know quite a few sick people and none are getting tested. Minor symptoms. A friend who was tested Thursday still doesn’t have a result (Ontario).


----------



## OptsyEagle

Money172375 said:


> I think if you get exposed, you’re gonna get it. my Partial faith in masks is dropping daily. They clearly don’t offer very good protection.


Is your friend still alive...then their mask may very well have worked the way it was supposed to.

Masks were never a method to stop infection. When the openings between the fibres of a mask are the equivalent of using a chain link fence to keep out a fruit fly you should be able to start to see that a nanometer size virus can eventually get through it. Their purpose is to stop the majority of the virus, since they could never stop it all.

With that said, as these variants start to reproduce faster and faster in the body (Omicron), it also means less and less virus is therefore needed to produce an infection. So although the masks ability to reduce infections is decreasing you are still always better off stopping some of it from entering your body then allowing more and more of it to get inside you, that your body will also need to fight off and neutralize. 

If too much gets in you, you are dead.


----------



## damian13ster

Through it all, the numbers in Alberta have been trending in the right direction. According to AHS statistics, there were 352 people in hospital when the Omicron scare began on Dec. 16. There were 318 in hospital on when they last updated the results on Dec. 23.

ICU cases fell from 70 on Dec. 16 to 64.


----------



## sags

What are Alberta doctors and nurses who work in the ERs and ICUs saying. Only the "sheep" believe everything the government tells them.


----------



## Beaver101

damian13ster said:


> Through it all, the numbers in Alberta have been trending in the right direction. According to AHS statistics, there were 352 people in hospital when the Omicron scare began on Dec. 16. There were 318 in hospital on when they last updated the results on Dec. 23.
> 
> ICU cases fell from 70 on Dec. 16 to 64.


 ... since the ICU numbers in Alberta are trending down, then Ontario should be sending its ICU Covid patients over there. Thanks for the headsup.


----------



## Beaver101

Spudd said:


> How do you know they're flouting the rules? Sags didn't say if the 90-year-old was fully vaccinated or not, but since she lives in a retirement home, odds are that she is. I'm sure she was screened upon her return but that is only asking them if they have any symptoms and taking their temperature. In a social day visit (say her family picked her up at 10am and returned her at 4pm) she wouldn't have time to have developed symptoms by the time she returned to the home.


 ... no need to flout any rules now since it's on lockdown. 

Seriously, where should be a 90 year old (diabetic) living in a LTC home be visiting? ... and in the middle of winter.


----------



## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> I’m down in Florida. dealing with a flood from early 2020. We drove down. No request to see our vax at the border.
> A different world Down here. Virtually no masks indoors. Just the employees at the grocery store. About 5% of the shoppers. No masks evident anywhere else. Restaurants, gyms, bars all full. Lots of signage for New Years parties and events.
> 
> my friend who is trapped in Dubai after testing positive on a Work trip…….found out he got COVID on the flight over. Airline called him and told him he was near a positive case.
> so much for masks on flights, pre-testing passengers, vaccinated passengers, superior air filtration on flights. Numerous layers of protection and he still got sick. Bad luck? Or do any of these methods actually work? I think if you get exposed, you’re gonna get it. my Partial faith in masks is dropping daily. They clearly don’t offer very good protection.
> 
> I know quite a few sick people and none are getting tested. Minor symptoms. A friend who was tested Thursday still doesn’t have a result (Ontario).


 ... you and your friends/acquaintances coming down with the "minor symptoms" are not the concern. The vulnerables are ... eg. the elderly, the immuno-compromised, people with co-morbidities ... in your circle are. Even you're not planning to visit or be near them, others people will.


----------



## Spudd

Beaver101 said:


> ... no need to flout any rules now since it's on lockdown.
> 
> Seriously, where should be a 90 year old (diabetic) living in a LTC home be visiting? ... and in the middle of winter.


He said it was a retirement home, not a LTC home. Most likely they were visiting their family for the holiday.

Anyway, my point was just that you were mad they were "flouting the rules" but there was no evidence in Sags' post that they were. The rule says fully vaccinated people can go out on a day visit. So if she was fully vaccinated, it was within the rules that she do that.


----------



## Beaver101

Spudd said:


> He said it was a retirement home, not a LTC home.


 ... last I understood was his wife works at a LTC place. Anyhow, minor difference here.


> Most likely they were visiting their family for the holiday.


 ... no he specifically said "*A resident went out last week and returned with covid. She is a 90 year old diabetic so it may not go well for her.*_ " _which to me means she went out or they (her family) took her out so I'm not sure where you got the idea they (her family) were visiting their family (grandma?) for the holiday. It would be ideal if the family went to visit her but even then they, the family will be restricted to the number of visitors allowed.



> Anyway, my point was just that you were mad they were "flouting the rules" but there was no evidence in Sags' post that they were


. ... why would I be mad, I'm not working there. [But I can see sag's wife would be.] Nevertheless, if they (her family) took her out, then that's flouting the rule.



> The rule says fully vaccinated people can go out on a day visit. So if she was fully vaccinated, it was within the rules that she do that.


 ... now if you're basing on these rules, then the "screening" failed IMO.

_*



Social day trips will be limited to residents who are fully vaccinated and they must be screened upon their return.

Click to expand...

*_
And if it's a case of this (ie. not a "day" trip), then that's flouting the rule (again!)

_*



Overnight absences for social purposes will be suspended, regardless of the resident's vaccination status

Click to expand...

*_
Anyhow, the lack of common sense or the attitude of "well, those are the rules and we're abiding by them literally" (which in reality is the lack of respect or considerations for others) in those settings (retirement homes, LTCs where the elderlies or basically a vulnerable population reside) is just an invitation for disaster IMO.


----------



## sags

My wife works in a retirement home, but as there is a long waiting list for LTC homes, they have some residents who are waiting for placement.

Rules or not....and I am not sure what the rules were as they just changed them before Christmas, one has to question the wisdom of the home allowing residents to come and go. One infected resident affects all of the residents and staff.

Now they are facing the problem of workers off due to infection and the need to continue to look after the infected residents, which is time consuming and requires extra PPE.

The wife was approached by the CEO for her opinion on what PPE is necessary and she told them N95 masks, gowns, gloves, and a face shield or goggles.

They said they would "pass out the N95s" and she told them the masks have to be fitted for each person. They have to be tight enough to leave marks on the face.

She also picked up some more shifts as they try to fill in gaps for workers. They were short before this outbreak and are really struggling now. She can work every day if she wants.

I think Omicron will ripple through the economy and close down businesses as workers get infected.

Letting the virus run is not a good plan.


----------



## damian13ster

It is good plan to allow asymptomatic people to simply continue to work.
More and more organizations are doing that. Shortening the isolation period, dropping it all together.
This pandemic is over for everyone other than few who hide in their basement when someone has a sniffle.

CDC is slowly starting to face reality. They just shortened isolation time to 0 or 5 days depending on vaccination status

Time to start pulling the 100million people that were pushed to poverty through this idiocy.
Time to start healing our youth from mental problems
Time to start focusing on education, social contact, social intellicence again.
People were robbed of their lives, people were robbed of their futures, people were robbed of hope, education, well-being. Time to start fixing it.
The stupidity of those in charge did too much damage as is

And those who want to hide in their basements forever are allowed to hide in their basements forever.


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## damian13ster

Meanwhile Government of Canada used this opportunity for mass surveillance. Shocking.....


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## damian13ster

"Vaccine protection against infection is melting like snow under the sun," Jüni said in an interview on _CBC News Network._ "Omicron is evading the immune system.

"In reality, there is no way — if it comes to infection — to distinguish anymore between a person who is not vaccinated and a person who has received two doses."


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## Money172375

My friends 3 year old who tested positive a few days ago with a pcr test, has now tested negative with a pcr test a few days later. Doctors think she may never have had COVID.

their 3 month old got sick and spent her first Xmas in hospital…thought it was COVID based on her sisters first test. Now both are at home and doing fine.

weird thing with the first false positive pcr test. As for the parents….still waiting on test results from Thursday.


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## damian13ster

https://secureservercdn.net/50.62.198.70/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-268439v1-Sigal.pdf



Getting infected with Omicron protects against Delta


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## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> I’m down in Florida. dealing with a flood from early 2020. We drove down. No request to see our vax at the border.
> A different world Down here. Virtually no masks indoors. Just the employees at the grocery store. About 5% of the shoppers. No masks evident anywhere else. Restaurants, gyms, bars all full. Lots of signage for New Years parties and events.


Yeah, people and the government in Florida don't want to take this seriously. Do you remember the price they paid for that in August / September / October?

Their "price" was a huge number of FL deaths. They let many of their people die because of a reluctance to prevent the spread of disease.

I would never tolerate a government that is that irresponsible, reckless, and which values our lives so little.


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## damian13ster

Isn't the northeast US the trouble spot now?
Doesn't New York, New Jersey have higher death count than Florida?

That's precisely the problem. You blame government depending on which political party it is from. Being partisan.
COVID is religion now. Not science.

The truth is nothing that government did worked. All they did is shoot themselves in the foot. Waves are seasonal. South has waves in the months you have indicated. North has waves in december-january. 

If you look in September, governor of southern states are idiots. If you look now, governors in the northern states are the ones looking like chumps. Which ones you criticize more - that depends solely on your political views, not on merit


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## damian13ster

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1475540046677790723
Good thread on hospital situation in UK.

new hospitalization numbers are vast majority asymptomatic patients, already in hospital, that got infected and tested positive
biggest strain on healthcare system is staff having to go through quarantine - shortage of staff, not increase in patients
raw data doesn't distinguish between the 'incidental' COVID and admission because of COVID
In the words of one hospital chief executive in the South West this morning: “we’ve seen a 30% increase in covid positive inpatient numbers compared to 7 days ago. But largest proportion are incidental finding on admission, so covid-19 is not the reason for admission. “It’s therefore important to look at the total number of patients admitted, not just the raw number of covid patients admitted, particularly if they don’t need full covid care. For our trust as a whole, overall admissions are no higher than they were seven days ago”


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## sags

It doesn't really make much of a difference in the hospital because the covid patients, incidental or otherwise, all have to be isolated from other patients and the staff have to use full PPE. Staff has to be dedicated to covid patients so they don't move from patient room to patient room spreading the virus, or they have to undress and dress every time they enter a new room. It really hampers timely healthcare and requires far higher staffing levels.

Hospital staff are burned out and continually applying more work and stress upon them will make the situation much worse.

Some people seem intent on stressing the healthcare system beyond it's ability to respond. I can only wonder what their motives are.

Then again, some people just like to stir up the ashes in a macabre attempt to ignite a fire.


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## damian13ster

Unless they change the guidance. CDC did it already.
Soon none who came in contact with covid and are asymptomatic will have to be isolated.
That will solve the problem with staffing in hospitals - suddenly they will get 10-20% of their staff back (it is estimated that currently 1/10 of entire population is positive for COVID)
Pandemic is over. This is the last step - dropping the isolation for asymptomatic.


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## sags




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## damian13ster

There you go. Didn't take long









Some COVID-positive essential workers to continue working in Canada's Quebec, minister says


Quebec, the second most populous Canadian province, has "no choice" but to allow some essential workers to continue working even after testing positive for COVID-19 to prevent staff shortages from impeding its healthcare services, Health Minister Christian Dube said Tuesday.




www.reuters.com





And from CTV:

Quebec's director of public health, Dr. Horacio Arruda, said Tuesday that if a worker "is not in good shape at all," he or she will not be asked to come in. But if the person has "soft" symptoms, they could return to work.


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## james4beach

BC has closed many testing sites due to extreme cold. The case numbers aren't too accurate.


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## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> It is good plan to allow asymptomatic people to simply continue to work.
> More and more organizations are doing that. Shortening the isolation period, dropping it all together.
> This pandemic is over for everyone other than few who hide in their basement when someone has a sniffle.
> 
> CDC is slowly starting to face reality. They just shortened isolation time to 0 or 5 days depending on vaccination status
> 
> Time to start pulling the 100million people that were pushed to poverty through this idiocy.
> Time to start healing our youth from mental problems
> Time to start focusing on education, social contact, social intellicence again.
> People were robbed of their lives, people were robbed of their futures, people were robbed of hope, education, well-being. Time to start fixing it.
> The stupidity of those in charge did too much damage as is
> 
> And those who want to hide in their basements forever are allowed to hide in their basements forever.


yes we don't want to be killed by lightening.


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## sags

damian13ster said:


> There you go. Didn't take long
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some COVID-positive essential workers to continue working in Canada's Quebec, minister says
> 
> 
> Quebec, the second most populous Canadian province, has "no choice" but to allow some essential workers to continue working even after testing positive for COVID-19 to prevent staff shortages from impeding its healthcare services, Health Minister Christian Dube said Tuesday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And from CTV:
> 
> Quebec's director of public health, Dr. Horacio Arruda, said Tuesday that if a worker "is not in good shape at all," he or she will not be asked to come in. But if the person has "soft" symptoms, they could return to work.


They can work in areas where they wont come into contact with patients........laundry, dietary, sterilizing equipment, shipping and receiving, etc.


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## james4beach

My interpretation of relaxing these guidelines is that it's because the virus has forced our hand. Omicron is incredibly infectious and in parts of the US, the prevalence is now 10% ... so 1 in 10 people are sick. In that situation, society doesn't have much choice but to let sick people work out of necessity.

But that doesn't mean -- on an individual basis -- that you should take unnecessary risks or let down your guard. That is the wrong interpretation of this. Yes business and government has to let sick people keep working, but that's just because they are out of options.

*On an individual basis, we have options and we should still protect ourselves*. Don't meet with groups of people. Don't go to restaurants. Keep gatherings small, or avoid them entirely. Don't go anywhere if you are sick. Certainly don't go to work if you're sick. Wear a KN95 or CAN95 indoors anywhere, except at home.

These are things a person will do if they respect healthcare workers.


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## damian13ster

Prohibit healthy people from working.
Send infected people to patients

#logic


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## sags

Good news....

Canada now ranks number 5 in the world on covid response and is trending up.

1) Chile
2) Ireland
3) U.A.E.
4) Finland
*5) Canada*









The Best and Worst Places to Be in a World Divided Over Covid


Bloomberg measured travel, vaccine coverage, lockdown disruption and mortality rates.




www.bloomberg.com


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## james4beach

sags said:


> Good news....
> 
> Canada now ranks number 5 in the world on covid response and is trending up.


I noticed that too, we're #5 out of the 53 countries. Based on their ranking method, our high ranking appears to be thanks to a combination of high vaccination rate, relatively low fatality rate, and cross-border travel being open.

Bloomberg writes the following:
*"As of October 2021’s Ranking, which marked a full year of the project, only seven countries never fell into the bottom half of the line-up even as the pandemic shape-shifted. The UAE, Finland, Canada, Denmark, South Korea, Norway and Switzerland were the pandemic’s equivalent of season MVPs: whether in containing the virus’s spread, rolling out vaccination, fighting delta or reopening the economy, they consistently scored above average."*


Definitely something for us to celebrate. As a country, we have managed the pandemic well so far (knock on wood) and stand out as one of the countries which have consistently done well. I'm proud of our citizens and also appreciate the good job the federal & provincial governments have done.


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## Money172375

Not a super huge Deal for me, but I think I may have trouble returning to Canada. We’ll, it a bid deal unless I become seriously I’ll.
Getting COVID test results back in 72 hours is becoming a pipe dream. Looks like closer to 5 days. At what point, do they relax guidelines so the economic factors of cross border logistics aren’t impacted.
this is in Florida. although, my friend in ontario is on day 6 of waiting for his results from a provincial testing centre.

im driving back, so hoping I can get a rapid pcr test in one of the smaller, less populated states along my return route.


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## damian13ster

Alberta setting case records, positivity rate records (in big cities 1/3 test positive).
ICU numbers down to 50.
Two of my nursing friends going together to Cancun for next 2 weeks


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## sags

Ontario is finally locking down LTC homes starting tomorrow.

There are like 50 LTC and retirement homes with outbreaks.

That will test the severity of symptoms with Omicron.......with all those elderly people exposed now.


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## sags

If Omicron is a nothing burger........that is great news, but we still have Delta and the threat of mutations coming from who knows where.

We still need a cure to get fully back to normal. It would be helpful if China told the world what they created.


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## james4beach

We shouldn't jump to conclusions that omicron is nothing.

Here's the latest from Ontario. The most important data point here is that COVID-related hospitalizations are up significantly from a few days ago. So *it does appear that more people are ending up in hospital*.

This chart is NOT good news. It looks like the hospitalization number is trending up. However, as the article points out, it's also hard to interpret this hospitalization data because they basically test everyone coming through the door. So if more people end up in hospital for various other reasons (as people normally do at this time of year) they get flagged as COVID-related hospitalization.

_Best case scenario_: these are not reliable hospital numbers because of people coming in for other reasons. Things should normalize after the holiday break, at which point hospitalizations would come down, and we might never see this chart take off and go exponential.

_Worst case scenario_: these are omicron related infections and they are leading to more hospitalizations.


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## damian13ster

Actually no, this is not what it means at all.
There was discussion about it in recent days.
With how contagious that thing is, soon you are likely to have close to 50% of all people in hospital with 'incidental COVID'. UK already working on breaking down the statistics. Quebec signaling they will do the same.

ICUs in Ontario are the emptiest they have been in months:










Unfortunately not able to find the statistics for total hospital beds


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## james4beach

damian13ster said:


> Actually no, this is not what it means at all.


I wrote this in detail in my post and even explained the "_Best case scenario" _you are describing. The problem is that we don't quite know yet, it's too early to tell.

You are jumping to conclusions.



damian13ster said:


> ICUs in Ontario are the emptiest they have been in months:


Serious hospital cases lag infection reports. That's why we have to be very cautious for the next while. The Ontario case numbers only started taking off around December 15. In a week or two we will have a much better idea of what we're dealing with.

I'm hoping for the _Best case scenario_ of course, but it's too early to tell.


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## damian13ster

Yet there is absolutely no reason to panic over ICU load being lowest in months. 
Everyone losing their **** that ICUs are emptying


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## damian13ster

james4beach said:


> I wrote this in detail in my post and even explained the "_Best case scenario" _you are describing. The problem is that we don't quite know yet, it's too early to tell.
> 
> You are jumping to conclusions.
> 
> 
> 
> Serious hospital cases lag infection reports. That's why we have to be very cautious for the next while. The Ontario case numbers only started taking off around December 15. In a week or two we will have a much better idea of what we're dealing with.
> 
> I'm hoping for the _Best case scenario_ of course, but it's too early to tell.


Your bolded statement:

"So *it does appear that more people are ending up in hospital*."

That is the statement where you jump to conclusion.
Looking at ICU numbers, that conclusion is in direct contradiction to actual data.
Would love to see numbers for total hospitalizations, but they don't seem to be available.

We already have data. From South Africa, from UK, from Denmark. We already see ICU numbers falling in Ontario.


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## sags

There was always a lag in symptoms from covid. The first few days weren't too bad and then all of a sudden people couldn't breathe.

The big waves are still to come. We shall see what happens, but there is no doubt the un-vaccinated are getting hit hard spending weeks in the hospital.


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## zinfit

Money172375 said:


> Not a super huge Deal for me, but I think I may have trouble returning to Canada. We’ll, it a bid deal unless I become seriously I’ll.
> Getting COVID test results back in 72 hours is becoming a pipe dream. Looks like closer to 5 days. At what point, do they relax guidelines so the economic factors of cross border logistics aren’t impacted.
> this is in Florida. although, my friend in ontario is on day 6 of waiting for his results from a provincial testing centre.
> 
> im driving back, so hoping I can get a rapid pcr test in one of the smaller, less populated states along my return route.


I am returning at the end of March and hope the testing craze is over by then. The testing is a crock for people with three doses.


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## james4beach

sags said:


> The big waves are still to come. We shall see what happens, but there is no doubt the un-vaccinated are getting hit hard spending weeks in the hospital.


Potentially true, but are there that many unvaccinated adults remaining in Canada? 90% of people over age 12 have at least one shot. But the group that really matters is more like people over age 30, the ones more vulnerable to actually getting sick. Just a rough guess here but let's say it's something like 95% vaccinated for this population that's vulnerable to illness.

That would leave only something like 1 million Canadian adults over 30 without vaccination. That's not a huge number. Not all of them are going to get sick, maybe (another guess) 10% end up very ill, and now we're talking about 100,000 sick people across the country and that's spread over time as well.

We've vaccinated so many people that I'm not sure there are enough un-vaccinated remaining to cause a significant hospital burden.


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## HappilyRetired

You can't even call your numbers a guess james because it's nowhere near 10% of the unvaccinated that get seriously ill.

Why don't you stick to facts instead of fear mongering?


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## sags

Carumba !


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## Beaver101

UK health officials prepare for omicron surge at hospitals


----------



## Beaver101

Meanwhile on this side of the globe ... 

Ontario's chief medical officer of health to make announcement this afternoon

Let me guess what the hard decisions will be on the above / this afternoon's announcement:

1. Schools will be open for in-person learning.
2. Ontario will follow CDC guidelines to reduce isolation period from 10 to 5 days.


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## Money172375

Beaver101 said:


> Meanwhile on this side of the globe ...
> 
> Ontario's chief medical officer of health to make announcement this afternoon
> 
> Let me guess what the hard decisions will be on the above / this afternoon's announcement:
> 
> 1. Schools will be open for in-person learning.
> 2. Ontario will follow CDC guidelines to reduce isolation period from 10 to 5 days.


And 4th shot rollout plans……interesting talking to people down here in Florida. It’s the polar opposite of life in Ontario. People know about COVID, accept and are living their lives. I’ve met quite a few who had it and recovered. Different perspectives…..seems like each is on the opposite end of the spectrum. Ontario…too strict…..Florida….a little too relaxed.


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## Money172375

Ontario telling generally healthy people to avoid getting tested if showing minor symptoms. (due to high numbers). What a joke! 2 years in and we still don’t have testing or hospital capacity. Positivity rate approaching 40%.

also, according to ontario research, accounting for many factors, including vaccination, omicron is 50% less severe. Hoping we’re near the end….once we all catch this thing.


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## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> And 4th shot rollout plans……


 ... that's the plan for LTC, not the general population like Israel. Don't forget vaccines cost money but still far cheaper than lawsuits. 



> Interesting talking to people down here in Florida. It’s the polar opposite of life in Ontario. People know about COVID, accept and are living their lives. I’ve met quite a few who had it and recovered.


 ... well, have you talked to any dead people and asked them how was it like to (have) die(d) from Covid?



> Different perspectives…..seems like each is on the opposite end of the spectrum. Ontario…too strict…..Florida….a little too relaxed.


 ... don't disagree with the different "perspectives". 

Floridians are enjoying their lives as if the pandemic doesn't exists just as with the rest of the USA. I mean you can't prevent people from being arrogant. Besides your comparison of Ontario to Florida is apples to watermelons. You should be making a compare on Ontario to west or east of "Canada" and see if it's "too strict" which I think is far from it. Start with a lock-down first and then the word strict maybe applicable.


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## Beaver101

Money172375 said:


> Ontario telling generally healthy people to avoid getting tested if showing minor symptoms. (due to high numbers). What a joke! 2 years in and we still don’t have testing or hospital capacity. Positivity rate approaching 40%.


 ... I couldn't have said it better and really wonder about this Dr. Moore guy being the province's top "medical" officer. Aside from this desist to PCR test, his announcement of reducing isolation to 5 days (from 10) to "follow" "CDC's" guidelines, for one, doesn't Canada have its own Health Agency with guidelines to follow? Secondly, if I read correctly, this CDC guideline is for specific case basis - primarily aimed for the healthcare profession due to staffing challenges. And now Ontario is applying to the general population, okay. And then the in person of school reopening - moved from January 5 (from Jan. 3) - push 2 days back. Whoops, whoops. 


> also, according to ontario research, accounting for many factors, including vaccination, omicron is 50% less severe. Hoping we’re near the end….once we all catch this thing.


 ... yes, we can hope and pray ... no further comments.


----------



## sags

Got my third shot today and already I am stronger, faster, and taller.


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## cainvest

sags said:


> Got my third shot today and already I am stronger, faster, and taller.


But did your cell signal get any better?


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## Beaver101

sags said:


> Got my third shot today and already I am stronger, faster, and taller.


 ... you should wait a couple of days before making that declaration. I heard the 3rd dose can give you stronger side-effects (especially if you had none on the 2nd dose) such as a rash.


----------



## zinfit

I got my fourth dose in Texas on the 14th of December. I also feel stronger, faster and taller. No side effect whatsoever. Don't ask how I got four Moderna jabs it s a long story.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

QC just announced further measures. Many closures, restrictions and curfew back on.


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## damian13ster

And people still believe vaccinations will stop it 😅 😅 😅 
You guys simply didn't give up enough human rights yet to stop the lockdowns.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Your right. We should retake our human rights and do whatever we want so we can confuse the virus until it disappears.


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## cainvest

damian13ster said:


> And people still believe vaccinations will stop it 😅 😅 😅
> You guys simply didn't give up enough human rights yet to stop the lockdowns.


They aren't giving up any human rights by getting the vaccine, they are exercising their right to choose. 
Or are you against that now as well?


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> And people still believe vaccinations will stop it 😅 😅 😅
> You guys simply didn't give up enough human rights yet to stop the lockdowns.


With the big surge in hospitalizations it will be interesting to see what % will be the un-vaccinated. we might get closure to this vaccine debate.


----------



## damian13ster

There is no closure to vaccine debate

The debate isn't about efficiency, although the actual numbers need to be analyzed, especially considering each age group, gender, health profile, and risk profile.

The debate (and there really isn't a debate - abusers are simply wrong), is about human rights.
Voluntary consent to medical procedure.
Freedom of movement
Freedom of peaceful assembly
Freedom of association
Every citizen having a right to enter, and leave Canada
Right to life and liberty

There isn't a debate.
There are abusers, those who are pro-abuse, and those who are against the abuse.


----------



## bgc_fan

cainvest said:


> But did your cell signal get any better?


You need 5 shots, you know, to match "5"G.


----------



## james4beach

My friend's mom (who's in her 70s) is now in the ICU with covid. We're all worried for her.

Their whole family caught covid during Christmas. They're all vaccinated.

Make no mistake... covid is still dangerous. Obviously it's more dangerous the older you get. Vaccination reduces the probability of severe illness but obviously cannot can't drop the risk to zero.


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## sags

Hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths are all rising rapidly, across Canada and it will get worse as people start showing symptoms from Christmas and New Years parties and gatherings. The World Juniors hockey tournament was cancelled after games were played due to the rising covid numbers......and that is inside the "bubble" created for players and staff.

All the Provinces are warning their hospital capacity is being challenged and may be overrun. They will have nowhere to send patients this time.

The worst statistic in Ontario is 15 more deaths from covid.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths are all rising rapidly, across Canada and it will get worse as people start showing symptoms from Christmas and New Years parties and gatherings. The World Juniors hockey tournament was cancelled after games were played due to the rising covid numbers......and that is inside the "bubble" created for players and staff.


 ... I can bet accurately that "bubble" created were working like a piece of Swiss cheese.



> All the Provinces are warning their hospital capacity is being challenged and may be overrun. They will have nowhere to send patients this time.


 ... it'll be interesting to see what JT will say to any province that'll be screaming for help from the military this time.



> The worst statistic in Ontario is 15 more deaths from covid.


 ... a telling sign of things to come even Omicron has been perceived as not as deadly since Delta hasn't exactly disappeared. We (Ontarians) know who to blame in the first week of January (the top 3 officials) if that number keeps climbing.


----------



## sags

Ontario reported 40 new outbreaks in LTC homes in one day, for a total of 98 homes with outbreaks.

We are back to square one again because Doug Ford waited until yesterday to lock down the homes.

I suspect they held back the LTC numbers until after they made the lock down announcement.

In my wife's retirement home, 5 residents have covid and are isolated and one was sent to the ER.

My wife had to work yesterday because she is the only one with a fitted N95 mask and training to work in isolation rooms.

That is 10 days work in a row for her. It is starting to look like the first waves of the pandemic again. She is supposed to be off Sunday but we shall see.

This is the worst they have seen it in the home since the pandemic began.

People are getting sick, worn out, or quitting and nobody applies for available jobs.









COVID-19 outbreaks declared in 40 Ontario LTC homes in span of one day


There are now 98 homes in outbreak across the province




torontosun.com


----------



## bgc_fan

Beaver101 said:


> ... I can bet accurately that "bubble" created were working like a piece of Swiss cheese.
> 
> ... it'll be interesting to see what JT will say to any province that'll be screaming for help from the military this time.
> 
> ... a telling sign of things to come even Omicron has been perceived as not as deadly since Delta hasn't exactly disappeared. We (Ontarians) know who to blame in the first week of January (the top 3 officials) if that number keeps climbing.


I don't think they had a bubble for the World Jrs. During the NHL playoffs, I think they were pretty successful in implementing one, but they didn't bother for the Jrs.

I'm sure Trudeau will oblige, there's no reason not to, but support would be limited to medical personnel again... the interesting part is that you can't use the Reserves as a resource since they are likely already on the front lines with their day jobs.

We'll see in a couple of weeks, the effects of the Christmas holidays and if people have been traveling around. If hospitalization and ICU numbers don't go up significantly, that could be a good sign.


----------



## damian13ster

Just about all provinces already moved to follow CDC's new guidelines.

Isolation dropped to 5 days, even if you have symptoms, but improving.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> My friend's mom (who's in her 70s) is now in the ICU with covid. We're all worried for her.


Wishing her the best.


----------



## moderator2

Closing this thread and starting a new one for 2022:









COVID-19 thread for 2022


Continuing the discussion here in a new thread. Here's the old COVID-19 thread for 2020 and 2021




www.canadianmoneyforum.com


----------

