# Progress Energy (PRQ)



## hubble (Sep 6, 2010)

I Have been holding and building a position in Progress Energy (PRQ) since the last downturn in the markets. With the recent events (pending takeover by Petronas)  I am in search of another company that is similar to Progress to replace in my portfoilio. It has paid a decent dividend (about 2-3%) and I felt that if natural gas was to increase in value over the years (long term) that the share price would rise or even out perform the nat gas increase. With so many companies trying to get more oily over the years, (I have the oil part of my portfoilio more than covered with oil stocks) what do you all suggust is a good replacement for Progress in my portfoilio. ECA is the heavyweight pure gas producer but I am not a fan of them at all, Others such as PEY, TOUR, or even PPY are potential canidates.. Looking forward to all your insight/opinions. 

Also does anyone think there will be another bid come from a third party or should I let my shares go for the .60 cent premium to the $22 current bid. I was totally shocked with the increase bid by the third party as I thought Petronas's premium was more than enough to make other companies shy away. (also any rumors on whom that 3rd party is?? RDS???


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

There is no way to know the future for sure.

Right now any company that deals primarily in NG has gotten smoked. Even NGL prices have been taking a hit lately. Of course, Cdn petroleum companies have been selling at major discounts compared to similar US companies, as well. Thus you have stocks that are incredibly depressed in the short run but have valuable assets that will last many years that the world will need and will pay much more for in the future. The Green revolution may have a major impact on electricity generation soon (wind, solar, wave, hydro, etc.) but they will not affect transportation fuels due to lack of ability to store large amounts of electrical energy in batteries with present technology.

To me those that can be very patient will win in the end. I am not convinced that the low is in yet for natural gas due to the massive amounts being produced as byproducts of hydraulic fracks for oil and NGL. This as depressed prices due to oversupply and inability to store it which tanked prices. Most of these companies need prices around $5 to be profitable in the long run. Many companies have been getting by from hedges against future production sold years ago but any that need to be renewed will probably see lower prices and affect profitability. For this reason you are best choosing companies with healthy balance sheets (lots of cash, low debt, no need to roll over debt anytime soon) and low production costs. My understanding is some good bets right now are BIR, ECA and PEY. Out of these choices I probably like ECA the best as it is safe and not overvalued.


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