# Fortis (FTS.TO)



## donald

Who do you guys and gals like for a canadian utility?i picked up some fts in my tfsa,anybody own fts?any thoughts on it?i bought it for the dividend and the yield....seems like a soild core stock.


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## Cal

Good stock with a solid history.


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## marina628

I have owned it many years and top it up a couple times a year.


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## dubmac

bought another 100 shares today
Nice stock..reliable, drip-able.....luvable.


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## Financial Cents

LOVE FTS. Slowly increasing my position via full DRIP with transfer agent.


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## zylon

*FTS ... buy and fugetaboutit*



















image source


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## Oldroe

have lot's of fortis and will buy more. Southern Company is another utility I'm looking at.


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## Jungle

I missed this one on the dip but managed to snatch a few others so.. we'll wait for next time  aka next week with these manic markets!


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## marina628

I plan to buy $5000 in FTS sometime this month .


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## Ethan

I own 100 shares. The 2nd chart posted by Zylon says it all for me, FTS has increased its dividend every year for at least 40 years while keeping their payout ratio between 40 and 80%. Wish there were more companies like this.


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## doctrine

I have 160 shares. Might add another 80 if the price drops to $31.50 or so.


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## Argonaut

I have an opposite perspective from the consensus here. I'm a shareholder looking for an excuse to bail. The one cent dividend raise was token at best. My worst performing stock in 2011.


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## Financial Cents

Ethan said:


> I own 100 shares. The 2nd chart posted by Zylon says it all for me, FTS has increased its dividend every year for at least 40 years while keeping their payout ratio between 40 and 80%. Wish there were more companies like this.


Well said. FTS is a great company.


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## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> I have an opposite perspective from the consensus here. I'm a shareholder looking for an excuse to bail. The one cent dividend raise was token at best. My worst performing stock in 2011.


I'll buy everything ya got for $32?


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## Argonaut

KaeJS said:


> I'll buy everything ya got for $32?


I'll actually be buying more tomorrow so long as Questrade finally completes my $5000 TFSA contribution. I like equal weight so I'm stuck with another 36 shares of FTS, plus the current 97 will give me 133 total. I haven't been able to find another Canadian dividend stock to replace it. Already have pipeline, real estate, railroad, and telecom covered. And bank of course.

I guess the bright side of me buying Fortis last year is that I replaced Just Energy with it, what a dog that is. There's CU and Emera for good utilities, but Fortis has a footprint here in BC that I can keep an eye on.


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## atrp2biz

Argonaut said:


> I have an opposite perspective from the consensus here. I'm a shareholder looking for an excuse to bail. The one cent dividend raise was token at best. My worst performing stock in 2011.


You have to put things into perspective. It is a 3% increase. FTS has been making small annual increases to their dividend for a long, long time, and as a company in a regulated industry, I suspect it will continue. FTS is not a homerun play. It's a bunch of singles that add up in value.

It's boring--and that's the way it's supposed to be.


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## atrp2biz

Oldroe said:


> have lot's of fortis and will buy more. Southern Company is another utility I'm looking at.


For safety, I like the wires business more than generation. As long as distributors maintain a rate base, returns will be consistent. Although SO is vertically integrated, generation is very susceptile to gas prices and forced outages.


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## Homerhomer

atrp2biz said:


> You have to put things into perspective. It is a 3% increase. FTS has been making small annual increases to their dividend for a long, long time, and as a company in a regulated industry, I suspect it will continue. FTS is not a homerun play. It's a bunch of singles that add up in value.
> 
> It's boring--and that's the way it's supposed to be.


I don't disagree however the dividend increases have been very small since 2008, a penny increase seems indeed like they are trying to keep the streak going, the p/e is almost 19 and there is no projected earnings growth next year, payout ratio hitting 70%, not terrible but doesn't give me any good feelings about future increases, atleast near term, and if and when interest rates do increase this one may be hit pretty hard. Yield isn't extremely high either, if one is not looking for growth they can get better yields in other good blue chip companies.

I think this story has two sides with quite possible better buying opportunities down the road.


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## gibor365

Homerhomer said:


> I don't disagree however the dividend increases have been very small since 2008, a penny increase seems indeed like they are trying to keep the streak going, the p/e is almost 19 and there is no projected earnings growth next year, payout ratio hitting 70%, not terrible but doesn't give me any good feelings about future increases, atleast near term, and if and when interest rates do increase this one may be hit pretty hard. Yield isn't extremely high either, if one is not looking for growth they can get better yields in other good blue chip companies.
> 
> I think this story has two sides with quite possible better buying opportunities down the road.


I'm planning on buying utility stock this year.... was thinking about IPL and FTS.... IPL has much better yield , but too expensive right now...
More appealing to me looks Utilities on US side, like UNS 60% payout, very nice dividend growth numbers, current yield 4.5%

Homerhomer _good blue chip companies_ any examples? except telecoms , I don't see such companies (on TSX)


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## Homerhomer

gibor said:


> Homerhomer _good blue chip companies_ any examples? except telecoms , I don't see such companies (on TSX)


In general or good buys right now? In general utilities, banks, rails, you know the usual staff everyone knows about, good buys right now that's a whole different story, utilities are grossly overprices, so are the rails, banks imo are a decent value but would wait for a dip, insurance sector is beaten down but the only company in that sector I would consider a blue chip is great west, and am actually considering buying it in the near future, it recovered some lately so I am hoping for a dip down.


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## humble_pie

just curious, why do peeps keep saying it's a 3% increase or a 3.4% increase in the dividend ?

it was a penny. four measly pennies per annum. barely more than one-tenth of one percent.


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## Square Root

humble_pie said:


> just curious, why do peeps keep saying it's a 3% increase or a 3.4% increase in the dividend ?
> 
> it was a penny. four measly pennies per annum. barely more than one-tenth of one percent.


1 cent on 29 cents is 3.4%. So the dividend is up 3.4% This is common terminology?


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## KaeJS

Happy to see this stock in the red today over 1%. It's about time.


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## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Happy to see this stock in the red today over 1%. It's about time.


imho FTS should fall to middle $31's in order to be a good buy... current dividend is not impressive , div growth even less impressive , it's 1 cent per year , so in % points it will be less from year to year...

So maybe I'll buy if it falls to 31.60-31.70...but on the other hand with such pullback for utilities maybe IPL.UN or UNS.NYSE will be a better play


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## doctrine

If the economy keeps chugging along at 2-3%, sooner or later people will start moving their money into growth stocks. Utility stocks will probably be a great buy all year round as the institutions move out. 

Fortis has been moving back to the $31 range every 3 months or so. However, it probably won't last forever, and if they do a more significant dividend increase next year (8-10%), then the stock will probably have a new floor of $35.


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## KaeJS

I would like to buy at $32 or less. I will not buy above the $32 level. Just too expensive for the yield you are receiving.


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## atrp2biz

So what about non-dividend paying stocks?

It's all about the earnings. I personally would prefer no dividends as I can control when I want to pay taxes.


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## Cal

Yes last dividend increase was on par w inflation.

I would be in at $31. At least based on todays knowledge of their earnings and such.


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## HaroldCrump

Argonaut said:


> I haven't been able to find another Canadian dividend stock to replace it.  Already have pipeline, real estate, railroad, and telecom covered. And bank of course.


You would be hard pressed to find any utility stock that is reasonable priced, let alone undervalued.
Anything with even a half decent balance sheet has already been over-bought by yield chasing investors in the last 8 - 10 months.
Even perpetual dogs up to their eye balls in debt like TA and AQN are already at or above 52 week highs.
IMO this is time to either hold or sell utilities, not buy.


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## gibor365

HaroldCrump said:


> IMO this is time to either hold or sell utilities, not buy.


imho The same valid for telecoms..... the question is "what to buy?" for dividend-oriented investors.... except banks and to some degree energy , I cannopt see anything else...

Another option to look for good utilities on US side


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## Oldroe

Southern Company U.S. is a utility I'm looking at.


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## HaroldCrump

A couple of articles on utilities and dividend investing popped up this morning.
SO is in both of these lists

_Cranking Up The Power: Five High-Paying Utilities For 2012_
http://www.forbes.com/sites/energys...he-power-five-high-paying-utilities-for-2012/

_7 Dividend Champs For Income And Capital Gains_
http://seekingalpha.com/article/318380-7-dividend-champs-for-income-and-capital-gains


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## gibor365

Oldroe said:


> Southern Company U.S. is a utility I'm looking at.


I also took a look on SO when was searching US Utility stocks... SO is also expensive and close to 52 weeks high, also dividend growth is pretty slow... I liked more UNS , pretty similar company but numbers are better...had order Buy today, but it didn't get to my desired price


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## zylon

*Fts 32.69*



> (Reuters) - Canadian utility Fortis Inc <FTS.TO> said it will buy CH Energy Group Inc <CHG.N> for about $1 billion in cash, to enter the U.S. state-regulated electric and gas distribution business that assures stable return.


An indication of confidence in management, if share price doesn't crash when making an acquisition.


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## KaeJS

CHG is up 11%.


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## Ethan

Sweet. Last month I sold a call on my Fortis position that I was able to buy back on the cheap today.


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## Cal

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fortis-buy-ch-energy-1-124430545.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...20120221&archive=ccnm&slug=201202210767746001

CHG should be up....Fortis is paying a 10.5% premium as of CH price at last close.


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## doctrine

NOt a bad acquisition, and no bidding war either and just a small premium. This is a pretty big acquisition though, a $1B company vs Fortis's $6B cap. Looking to add especially on this pullback.


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## Eder

I'm hoping to buy at $31 but doubt it will get there. Fortis is showing why they are in a different league than Trans Alta.


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## KaeJS

I may take a small position tomorrow. 50 or 100 shares.

The stock price has tested $34 about four times in the last 1 year.

I would feel relatively safe buying at $32.


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## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I may take a small position tomorrow. 50 or 100 shares.
> 
> The stock price has tested $34 about four times in the last 1 year.
> 
> I would feel relatively safe buying at $32.


Yeap, I think at $32 you will be relatively safe, in last 6 months, 6 or 7 times FTS rebounded from 31.80-32 area. And 200SMA is $20.01


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## Barwelle

Gosh darn Americans, always suing everyone!

Summary: The Shareholders Foundation filed a lawsuit against CH Energy Group directors on behalf of CHG shareowners. Their reasoning is that the price that Fortis agreed to pay ($65, which is a 10.5% premium on closing price on Feb 17) was too low and therefore the CHG directors short-changed the shareholders.

I wonder if this will affect the takeover. Does this Shareholders Foundation have any clout?


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## KaeJS

^ Wtf? 

FTS paid a premium. How can they complain?

CHG was up 11% the first day after the M&A announcement.


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## Barwelle

One of their arguments is that the stock price actually rose higher than the premium at one point, which allegedly proves that the premium the directors agreed to was too low. And I'm guessing they would say that the stock was undervalued or something, and that the directors should have known. 

Though I'm really not sure who would buy this stock at a price higher than the takeover bid, unless of course a bunch of people didn't hear the news and bought in when they saw the price going up, pushing it over the top. 

Or they purposely jacked the price so they could sue? Who knows!


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## KaeJS

Barwelle said:


> Or they purposely jacked the price so they could sue? Who knows!


^ This was my thinking. I'm not sure how it all works. I feel like it doesn't hold any merit, though. We'll find out in due time.


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## Cal

I am doubtful that if the price did not increase the 10.5% premium that Fortis offered, the next day, that shareholders would have given Fortis some of their offer money back when the deal finally closed. LOL.

I am looking for Fortis to make a good dividend increase in the next year or so....tired of this keeping up with inflation increase stuff. Hopefully this will pass soon and FTS can bolster revenue.


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## blin10

Barwelle said:


> Gosh darn Americans, always suing everyone!
> 
> Summary: The Shareholders Foundation filed a lawsuit against CH Energy Group directors on behalf of CHG shareowners. Their reasoning is that the price that Fortis agreed to pay ($65, which is a 10.5% premium on closing price on Feb 17) was too low and therefore the CHG directors short-changed the shareholders.
> 
> I wonder if this will affect the takeover. Does this Shareholders Foundation have any clout?


that is normal, when there's a take over or a buy out there's always lawsuits, don't pay attention to that


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## Cal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...way-through-recent-soft-patch/article2360762/


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## doctrine

Good article. Also since their payout is around 65% with their very small increase this year, it is entirely likely the increase will be much nicer this year, like the 8% quoted.


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## KaeJS

Good article indeed.

It showed both sides of FTS and wasn't biased.

Glad I own my 100 shares of FTS. Probably won't sell them, ever.


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## Argonaut

The article was written by a Fortis shareholder and the theoretical 8% dividend hike was put forward by an analyst with a buy recommendation on the stock. I'm not sold. That would put the dividend at 32.5 cents next year (4% yield at current price) which would be okay, but I am betting on it ending up at 31 cents.

I tend to worry about this stock more than any other I own despite it being a low beta utility. The share price just hasn't responded well enough to the current low interest rate environment as opposed to a market-darling like Enbridge. When interest rates rise and their cost of debt goes up, the opportunity cost of owning this compared to fixed income also goes up. Can't bode well for the stock. I'm a seller at $33+.


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## donald

I don't get it argo.You and humble both promote the "handy 5-pack" ie a core-pipeline,tele co,bank,utility,rails but ive seen you want to sell out a few cores.Fortis is a income stock and most "hold" for that-a couch potatoe stock.What happenend to build a machine?why disrupt your army that is giving you soilders?Is'nt that short sighted thinking?(i mean no disrespect but i don't get it- and i vaule the why behind the why)


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## Argonaut

Fortis is the only one of my 5-pack that I've expressed concern about, and it's easily the 5th best in the pack. Something like Telus has it beat on all metrics, but out of devotion to my equal weight diversification I don't go overweight on a telecom at the expense of a utility. 

CN Rail is down almost twice as much as Fortis this year but I would never be concerned about it or sell. The dividend increases on CNR are exceptional, and it has that catalyst whenever the economy gets roaring to send the stock to new highs. Fortis has question marks and catalysts to drive it lower, which is part of my concern.

Keep in mind this is very selective worrying, as I believe the vast majority of stocks out there aren't worth consideration for a purchase. I'm not fretting about RIMM because I would never buy it in the first place.


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## humble_pie

donald i haven't really been promoting a 5-pack stock combo but rather i've been trying to turn the spotlight onto argo & his mini-portfolio. Because i believe in his concept, i think it's an efficient, simple, money-making concept for countless small investors, & argo has always written about it clearly & convincingly.

the idea is to eliminate all the losers in an index & concentrate instead on a tiny but diversified group of large cap out-performers.

investors can hold other stocks, of course, but these 5 (sometimes 6) picks could go in a tfsa or serve as the bedrock core of a non-registered portfolio.

argo has spoken to this concept many times here in cmf forum, over a period of about 2 years. I don't track his 5-pack myself, but i'm sure it has outperformed XIU or XIC, for example, over the past 24 months.

one has to keep in mind that there are zero management fees for the 5-pack. The broker will do all the accounting & render one tax slip at the end of the year. There will be no irritating special dividends, returns of capital or unwanted taxable capital gains as can happen with etfs. Instead, there will be eligible dividends pure & simple, plus the investor gets to control when & how he will take his capital gains.

lastly, markets change all the time. From time to time even a 5-star 5-pack has to undergo change. Rather than doubt argo's sense that now is the time to slip out of fortis, one could be happy that he continually monitors his little fund, & even happier that he posts up a management report from time to time so as to keep everybody current.


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## donald

I'm not doubting argo.I'm just curious on the "rotation" process of the 5 pack concept.If you look @ fts from a long-term range it is clearly a grand daddy as far as income stocks go(i realize past doesn't equal future)There is good-better & best and it's fair to say fts is "best in class" esp against other utility names.When exiting a core does one exit and look @ just the sector?(is it fts against itself,against the entire market or against the utility sector when evaluating?)never abandoning a sector?(ie like holding a insurance co right-now)When self dripping a "5-pack" are "we" looking @ weighting more than anything?ie level allocation is the system(no chasing)The 5 pack is more about income stream than anything else?I don't think people look to fortis for anything else than a bedrock.....I'm more curious of the system.


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## PMREdmonton

Argonaut said:


> I'll actually be buying more tomorrow so long as Questrade finally completes my $5000 TFSA contribution. I like equal weight so I'm stuck with another 36 shares of FTS, plus the current 97 will give me 133 total. I haven't been able to find another Canadian dividend stock to replace it. Already have pipeline, real estate, railroad, and telecom covered. And bank of course.
> 
> I guess the bright side of me buying Fortis last year is that I replaced Just Energy with it, what a dog that is. There's CU and Emera for good utilities, but Fortis has a footprint here in BC that I can keep an eye on.


If you want to put dividend paying stocks in TFSA you can also use UK, Argentina and South African stocks as ADRs from these countries should avoid withholding taxes in your TFSA.

Some companies you could consider are YPF, TEO, Sassol, RDS.B, BBL, GSK, BP, lots of Argentina banks, HBC, etc.


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## webber22

Trading halted after a $1.3b offering of shares available now at your broker. Be careful, remember ENB had the same offering a few weeks ago and the share price fell about 5%. CIBC had the IPO for a few weeks $1+ over the market price :smilet-digitalpoint. 

Edit: Checked again and the offering was dated May 10th, so this has already been priced in ??


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## gibor365

Fortis Inc. (TSX:FTS) has signed a deal to raise at least $601 million in an equity offering to help pay for its deal to buy New York state utility CH Energy Group.

The Canadian utility company said Tuesday it has an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters to sell 18.5 subscription receipts for a purchase price of $32.50 per receipt, which will entitle the holder to one Fortis share.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/art...st-601-million-to-help-pay-for-ch-energy-deal

So, what should we expect tomorrow?


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## KaeJS

Hm. I've never experienced this sort of thing before.

FTS sells to underwriters for $32.50, right? So... the share price shouldn't fall necessarily.


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## webber22

Stock prices can be punished whenever new shares are issued due to perceived share dilution. But there are good stock dilutions and bad ones. If it is determined by the market tomorrow morning to be a bad one, then the stock could fall below 32.50 and those that are signing up would be buying at a higher price. We need someone with time on their hands (maybe Belguy) to dig deeper into the numbers

Edit: Checked and found that back in May S&P boosted the outlook for Fortis’s rating from ‘credit watch’ to stable on the assumption that the company will raise at least $600-million in common shares. So that is what has happened, so the price should not be affected tomorrow


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## KaeJS

CH Energy Group better boost FTS profits to the moon and decrease payout ratio so they can keep raising dividends.


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## doctrine

$32.50 is a reasonable price, given the 52 week range of $28-35. I'm fairly certain it will be bought up pretty quickly - ENB's offer was at something like $41.50 which was basically at the 52 week high. Always looking to buy FTS below $32 so if it drops there I'll make a buy pretty quickly.


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## marina628

I have owned Fortis when it was Newfoundland Light and Power then it became Fortis in 1987 .You could buy shares with your electric bill back then so I was purchasing with my Father ,back then had two jobs no kids and lots of cash ,thank god my father got me into this stock lol.


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## blin10

usually it goes down to whatever the issued price is, so should be at 32.5 tomorow


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## Cal

from G&M article today: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-forensic-accountant-can-love/article4537735/

Fortis (FTS-T)

Yield: 3.6 per cent

Sept. 11/12 price: $33.16

Target price: $37

With about 90 per cent of its profits coming from its regulated utilities, Fortis provides “excellent earnings stability,” ARC says. But that stability doesn’t come at the expense of growth. Fortis is in the midst of an aggressive five-year capital spending program that will see it invest $5.5-billion through 2016, with about 65 per cent of the money going to electric utilities, 21 per cent to gas utilities and 14 per cent to non-regulated operations. As Fortis’s earnings march higher, ARC estimates that the company will raise its dividend by about 5 per cent in each of 2012 and 2013, continuing a pattern of regular annual increases. The stock trades at a similar valuation to other Canadian utilities, but ARC says the company deserves to command a premium because of its solid growth prospects and above-average yield.


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## doctrine

I bought Fortis recently at $32.75. Hoping to see more like a 1.5-2 cent dividend hike in a few months.


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## arc

Just bought 300 shares, good stuff


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## james4beach

gibor said:


> I'm planning on buying utility stock this year.... was thinking about IPL and FTS....


If you're thinking of Canadian utilities in general with a leaning towards FTS, you might want to check out the XUT etf. Fortis is by far its largest holding, but you get the advantage of a bit of diversification with some other utilities too.

I hold Fortis through XUT


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## FrugalTrader

I would argue that you can get a pretty good proxy for XUT by owning the top 3 stocks (FTS, CU and EMA) which represent over 50% of the ETF. The 0.55% MER is pretty expensive for 10 holdings.


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## Jungle

I will be picking up a small pile of shares of this really soon.


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## arc

what do you think about the preferred shares?
http://dcnonl.com/nw/32563/re


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## doctrine

Fortis raised the quarterly dividend from $0.30 to $0.31, or 3.3%, for the 40th consecutive yearly increase.

http://www.fortisinc.com/Attachments/MediaReleases/561.pdf

I'm not surprised it's only 1 cent, given that their revenue and earnings are down both per share and overall in 2012 over 2011. Their 12 month trailing payout ratio has increased from 70% at this time last year to 78%. Some early warning signs, but probably not a huge deal yet and at least they don't have a >100% payout ratio - a difficult thing to find in the utility sector. I estimate their current P/E at 21. Hopefully they turn around earnings in the next year especially with the addition of CH which should close soon.


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## Ethan

doctrine said:


> Fortis raised the quarterly dividend from $0.30 to $0.31, or 3.3%, for the 40th consecutive yearly increase.
> 
> http://www.fortisinc.com/Attachments/MediaReleases/561.pdf
> 
> I'm not surprised it's only 1 cent, given that their revenue and earnings are down both per share and overall in 2012 over 2011. Their 12 month trailing payout ratio has increased from 70% at this time last year to 78%. Some early warning signs, but probably not a huge deal yet and at least they don't have a >100% payout ratio - a difficult thing to find in the utility sector. I estimate their current P/E at 21. Hopefully they turn around earnings in the next year especially with the addition of CH which should close soon.


I sold out of Fortis in May at $33.30 because I don't like their diminishing returns and future prospects. They shouldn't be raising their dividend when their financials are deteriorating, they likely just did it to keep a stupid streak alive.


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## Argonaut

I also sold out at $34 and couldn't be happier. Dividend increase streaks are important, but if they can only afford a paltry 1 cent increase every year, the underlying fundamentals are not good enough. Not a good stock anymore.


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## Cal

A 3.3% increase does beat inflation.


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## CanadianMoney_2013

*Fortis (FTS) Opinion*

Hey Forum,

With FTS trading around $31.72, does anyone have a best prediction of where stock shall be in 4-6 months?
What do you think of this stock with time horizon of 1-3 years? What yields would it attain? Kindly let know.



Regards,

CanadianMoney_2013


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## birdman

I have quite a bit of Fortis and I feel its a very conservative "do nothing" stock. Pays 4%, increases its dividend regularly, and generally trades around 31. to 34.00, A little higher and a little lower on occasion. Low payout ratio and what you see is what you get. Don't expect too much out of it but I am a conservative investor and like it as I don't have to worry.


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## avrex

@admin
Please move to Fortis (FTS.TO) thread
thanks


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## james4beach

I think the danger with FTS is that in the zero interest rate world, people have gotten to used to holding it as some kind of pseudo-bond. People want to see the price stay steady while it pays out income. Again just look at the comments in this thread, people expecting the price to stay within a range, etc.

It's an unreasonable expectation.

Same criticism applies to dividend stocks in general. I think they've become very overheated due to yield-chasing and this belief that it's OK to treat volatile equities as pseudo-bonds. This is not a safe thing to do. When volatility eventually picks up, or if the bond market's dynamics change, FTS (and the rest of the div stocks) could be dumped hard. I think we got a taste of that in June but I think there's more to come, maybe not immediately but somewhere down the line.

Since people are buying stuff like FTS for the "yield and safety", as soon as they're no longer satisfied with the yield, or not satisfied with the safety, they have no reason to hold it and will dump it hard.

(I hold FTS inside ZUT and due to the reasons above have no intention to buy more any time soon)


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## FrugalTrader

My argument would be that once dividend stocks start to fall, the yield will increase, and dividend investors will start buying it again.


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## fatcat

FrugalTrader said:


> My argument would be that once dividend stocks start to fall, the yield will increase, and dividend investors will start buying it again.


the search for yield hasn't suddenly come to a halt ... all of the old standbys should still be in play and should start to recover i think


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## james4beach

FrugalTrader said:


> My argument would be that once dividend stocks start to fall, the yield will increase, and dividend investors will start buying it again.


That would be true if all other factors stay constant but I think this is proving to not be the case any more in the current market. Not with the big changes happening in the bond market, and risk pricing.

What you're describing (buying because the yield increased) is what would happen to bonds. This is exactly what I'm saying is the problem... utilities, telecom, div stocks, etc. are not bonds and it's a mistake to treat them as such. They are stocks and you have to factor many things in their pricing. The mistake I think many are making is over-simplifying and just focusing on 'yield' without realizing the whole list of factors in the pricing of these dividend stocks:


 dividend yield and dividend growth
 value and risk, versus bonds
 inflation and money printing expectations
 earnings
 dividend sustainability
 payout ratio
 equity dilution
 general stock risk
 investor sentiment, over-crowded trades
 movement with the broad stock market


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## Cal

I agree that you can't think of stocks like bonds, however unlike bonds, once you buy at a particular price, you can actually get a raise on your yield.

Also I would add to your list above, as the sector and interest rate/debt load can have an affect as well.

Having said that, I anticipate FTS to have annual dividend increases that are just slightly above inflation, perhaps 3% annually, as the last dividend increase they made a 3.1% increase.


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## My Own Advisor

Agreed Cal. People will jump all over me after I write this, but Fortis is one of those bond-like stocks. Very dependable. For that reason, happy to own it.


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## gibor365

My Own Advisor said:


> Agreed Cal. People will jump all over me after I write this, but Fortis is one of those bond-like stocks. Very dependable. For that reason, happy to own it.


I own FTS and consider it like GIC...getting my 3.7-3.8% yield and reinvest it


----------



## doctrine

> What you're describing (buying because the yield increased) is what would happen to bonds. This is exactly what I'm saying is the problem... utilities, telecom, div stocks, etc. are not bonds and it's a mistake to treat them as such.


I'm with james4beach on this. All investments have risk. Fortis dropped nearly 30% from its high in the 2008-09 market crash. They are down 5% YTD. They have a high P/E multiple still; if investors decided they wanted a P/E of 10, then Fortis could fall 50% further. 

I don't think this will happen, but it's certainly not impossible. I like Fortis but it's too expensive for me, I'm not in any utilities and won't be unless the P/E comes down to at least 15.


----------



## CanadianMoney_2013

*Fts.to*

Good evening,

Kindly let know when you think Fortis will again reach it's 52-week highs of $35.00 or above and explain,



Kind regards,

CanadianMoney_2013


----------



## Oldroe

I own fortis and dearly hope for a 50% drop. That's what I live for.


----------



## FrugalTrader

Good response James and I agree with you that those are important factors. My thoughts are that if a company has a long history of dividend growth, which FTS has the longest history in Canada, the fundamentals of the company has not changed, and you are a long term investor, then watch for the drops and buy more for the long term.

I guess it depends on what your investment goals are, for me, I'm banking on the income that dividend companies produce to help fund financial independence. So I will continue to buy the stocks in my watchlist if/when their valuations are more reasonable.



james4beach said:


> That would be true if all other factors stay constant but I think this is proving to not be the case any more in the current market. Not with the big changes happening in the bond market, and risk pricing.
> 
> What you're describing (buying because the yield increased) is what would happen to bonds. This is exactly what I'm saying is the problem... utilities, telecom, div stocks, etc. are not bonds and it's a mistake to treat them as such. They are stocks and you have to factor many things in their pricing. The mistake I think many are making is over-simplifying and just focusing on 'yield' without realizing the whole list of factors in the pricing of these dividend stocks:
> 
> 
> dividend yield and dividend growth
> value and risk, versus bonds
> inflation and money printing expectations
> earnings
> dividend sustainability
> payout ratio
> equity dilution
> general stock risk
> investor sentiment, over-crowded trades
> movement with the broad stock market


----------



## Oldroe

Ah what lovely memory's Fortis on a 30% discount. Between Fortis, 5 banks, Suncor I bought until rolling Quarters was my only option.

I do think james likes to string a whole group of lose facts, combine with irrational fear and good writing skills into a load of hooey.


----------



## james4beach

Don't get me wrong, guys. I own Fortis (inside ZUT). I think the utilities are an OK holding, but I'm keeping in the back of my head that they could still drop a lot, especially if interest rates go up or if all stocks drop. Just pointing out risks, that's all.

Oldroe: I'm probably one of the only people in this forum who makes an attempt to thoroughly evaluate the risks of potential investments. I think my list is very accurate, and you can find plenty of experts in the field who will back up the risk factors I describe. In the end, investment is about balancing risk vs reward.


----------



## Eder

What is the risk vs reward on a 100k 5 year Canada bond? The reason I ask is that I suspect real inflation is over 3%. Although I hold bonds since I'm retired, I like holding my Fortis more....they have steadily returned over 10%/year to me less inflation.


----------



## Oldroe

There you go you are young and wrong again.


----------



## james4beach

Eder said:


> What is the risk vs reward on a 100k 5 year Canada bond? The reason I ask is that I suspect real inflation is over 3%. Although I hold bonds since I'm retired, I like holding my Fortis more....they have steadily returned over 10%/year to me less inflation.


Yes risks with the gov bond are that you get high inflation (or it's already high and the government is under-stating inflation). The other risk is that Canada defaults.

It's all a risk vs reward equation.


----------



## nakedput

james4beach said:


> Yes risks with the gov bond are that you get high inflation (or it's already high and the government is under-stating inflation). The other risk is that Canada defaults.
> 
> It's all a risk vs reward equation.


if i want to use stocks as fixed income similar to a bond, then i don't think fortis is your best bet. I would go for a recession proof business like liquor box that pays 6%/annum currently. Inflation is grossly understated as we all know the inflation rate does not take into account the two biggest inflaters - food and fuel.


----------



## Mookie

What do you guys think of Fortis these days? It's currently trading just under $30 per share, which is a 52 week low. At this price, divident yield is about 4.1%. Good time to buy, or wait for it to sink a bit more first?


----------



## FrugalTrader

If you like the company, the price and yield, but unsure whether to buy or not, why not buy it in pieces? For example, 1/2 position now or 1/3 position now etc. Just an FYI that FTS 5 year avg yield is 3.9%, so from a yield perspective, it is in value price area.


----------



## blin10

Mookie said:


> What do you guys think of Fortis these days? It's currently trading just under $30 per share, which is a 52 week low. At this price, divident yield is about 4.1%. Good time to buy, or wait for it to sink a bit more first?


fts is good but i like ema more, less payout % and higher yeild... but fts is one of the best utils for sure


----------



## liquidfinance

If funds allowed I would currently buy FTS, EMA, CU and possibly ACO.

That's based on my findings from looking through the ZUT etf.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I own enough of FTS to DRIP and that's about it. I'd like to buy CU if I can.


----------



## PatInTheHat

I also chose EMA over FTS recently but I could see a purchase of FTS sometime in the future as well.


----------



## GoldStone

FrugalTrader said:


> Just an FYI that FTS 5 year avg yield is 3.9%, so from a yield perspective, it is in value price area.


I disagree. You can't say it's value priced by looking at the past average yield. FTS is sensitive to bond yields, like all utilities. Bond yields went up; FTS price went down. Is it a good value at the current price? Maybe, maybe not. Depends on where bond yields go from here.


----------



## AltaRed

And hence the dilemma. Bond yields are likely to creep upward for years from these low levels, time and extent of which is unknown. Perhaps FTS will be priced in the $25 range within a year or two.


----------



## leeder

I'm curious to know how FTS compares to EMA. I don't hold any of them and will likely not buy unless the valuation is too hard to refuse. However, I see many people disclose they hold FTS and not EMA. I would like to know what the difference is.


----------



## doctrine

EMA is a little more exposed to one province (~50% comes from Nova Scotia), although they have a lot of growth in Maine and in the Caribbean. If you have ever lived in Nova Scotia, most people hate Emera and Nova Scotia power with a passion; electricity is very expensive. Somewhat higher risk, I would argue it should have a risk premium over FTS, which it does to some degree.


----------



## blin10

big hit


----------



## kaleb0

blin10 said:


> big hit


Today's drop is probably due to the further leveraging that will be required to raise capital and pull this off I'm guessing.. Could be a good opportunity to increase one's position though, depending on where you think interest rates are headed.


----------



## Canadian

It looks like they're paying quite a premium. Fortis is paying $60.25 per share. UNS's book value per share was $25.75 at the end of 2012 and its market value before today has traded between $40.89USD and $51.71USD over the past year. Considering the difficulty of organic growth in the utility industry, it looks like Fortis is trying to grow [possibly at all costs] through acquisitions. This is its second large acquisition in 6 months. I would question how this acquisition will add value to Fortis. Sure, revenues will increase, but so will its bureaucratic costs. The utility industry is also a lot more competitive in the US than it is in Canada.


----------



## doctrine

Its a much bigger acquisition than their last one, CH in Vermont, as well: $4.3B vs $1.5B, which hasn't had a full year of integration yet. It's worth keeping an eye on to see if it does increase EPS significantly. Fortis is definitely on track for lower earnings in 2013 than 2012, so I wonder if there is a buying opportunity in the future. P/E of 20 is just too high without significant EPS growth.


----------



## indexxx

doctrine said:


> EMA is a little more exposed to one province (~50% comes from Nova Scotia), although they have a lot of growth in Maine and in the Caribbean. If you have ever lived in Nova Scotia, most people hate Emera and Nova Scotia power with a passion; electricity is very expensive. Somewhat higher risk, I would argue it should have a risk premium over FTS, which it does to some degree.


Yeah I lived in NS for a winter and had electric heating in my little loft house in Dartmouth- ridiculously expensive!!


----------



## Canadian

indexxx said:


> I lived in NS for a winter


Weather has turned quite chilly the past couple days. Time to turn the heat on! Brrr... :hopelessness:


----------



## Canadian

doctrine said:


> It's worth keeping an eye on to see if it does increase EPS significantly.......... P/E of 20 is just too high without significant EPS growth.


There will probably be an immediate EPS increase because of the integration. UNS has a higher EPS than FTS, so it is bringing more earnings relative to common shares. But I don't see much [or any] EPS growth from there. UNS's revenues and net income has been all over the map over the past five years - there's no definitive growth trend. Its margins are no better than Fortis's either. I don't see how this valuation materialized. Using UNS's 2012 EPS, Fortis is buying this company at 21x earnings. Its 2013 quarterly results are no better than 2012's so I don't see a lower forward-looking P/E. From what I'm looking at, I can't see how this acquisition will create value for FTS or its shareholders.


----------



## Killer Z

Just started a position this morning with FTS at $29.88/share. There may be some more downward movement in the weeks to come, but I chose to deploy at least half of my target allocation to get started. Good company, with a solid history.


----------



## kaleb0

Just added to my position a bit this morning myself @ 29.90, nice job on grabbing it at what is so far the lowest price of the day


----------



## Killer Z

kaleb0 said:


> Just added to my position a bit this morning myself @ 29.90, nice job on grabbing it at what is so far the lowest price of the day


Thanks Kaleb0. I would have been happy with anything under $30/share


----------



## Ponderling

I have been looking to get Fortis into my holdings for a while. The cash has now came about to allow this to happen. Then I read up that they just recently swallowed a s/w usa entity, and the chunk of debt that came with it. Not sure if regualtor had approved it when I sniffed around. 

Interest rates are shadowed to likely start creeping up in a year. Is no one concerend how this will weigh on utiliites share prices? Utilities usually have high debt relative to other sectors, but now does FTS not have more than typically historically has?


----------



## doctrine

They just closed an offering of $1.8B of convertible debentures. From looking at the details, the conversion price is $30.72.

That is a pretty big issue at a value barely above market price - 58.6 million shares (vs 213 million outstanding). I would have to see what their fully diluted EPS will look like post acquisition before making any decisions to get back in.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Continue holding shares, DRIPping every quarter.


----------



## blin10

i prefer NPI in utils space at the moment... more potential growth with a better yeild


----------



## leeder

I own some CU, which offers higher dividend growth than FTS, but lower yield. However, below $30 is a great entry point for FTS. Imo, the stock price seems to be reasonable, but not necessarily cheap.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I hope to buy some CU as well. Don't own any. 

@blin10, NPI is looking attractive with PE around 15 and monthly yield north of 6%.


----------



## AltaRed

Beware of high yields. NPI market price has drifted down for a reason. Northland Power is especially vulnerable to: a) increases in NG prices which ARE coming sometime, and 2) a likely overhaul of the Ontario government's disasterous electrial energy policy.


----------



## blin10

AltaRed said:


> Beware of high yields. *NPI market price has drifted down for a reason*. Northland Power is especially vulnerable to: a) increases in NG prices which ARE coming sometime, and 2) a likely overhaul of the Ontario government's disasterous electrial energy policy.


all utils price drifted down fyi


----------



## My Own Advisor

Points on both sides noted  I don't own much NPI and own much more FTS. 

Everywhere across Canada actually, there is a disastrous energy policy....


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

I own and have held for a while. No complaints. I like where the company is headed long term and the dividend increases in the past few years have definitely helped. No plans to sell any time soon


----------



## Cal

I don't know if growth will continue onwards, but am holding, and perhaps buying more at these levels.


----------



## m3s

My Own Advisor said:


> Everywhere across Canada actually, there is a disastrous energy policy....


I suppose Québec isn't really Canada


----------



## gibor365

Cal said:


> I don't know if growth will continue onwards, but am holding, and perhaps buying more at these levels.


I'm also holding and no intention to sell....FTS is the only real Canadian dividend aristocrat


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

Does anyone DRIP with FTS? I don't as it's only a 2% discount but nothing against the idea


----------



## My Own Advisor

I do. Synthetic DRIP.


----------



## swoop_ds

I DRIP them.


----------



## Killer Z

OurBigFatWallet said:


> Does anyone DRIP with FTS? I don't as it's only a 2% discount but nothing against the idea


I personally DRIP anything I can including FTS.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

I heard earlier that FTS increased their divy again in 2014 for the 41st straight year. Is this true? If so, wow.....


----------



## My Own Advisor

Yup, another hike:
http://www.vancouversun.com/busines...+reports+100million+profit/9477001/story.html

Like clockwork.


----------



## Killer Z

Great news, but I was expecting no less.

P.S. Mods, should this thread not be moved to the Indivudual Stocks/Equities section? thx


----------



## Butters

I think Fortis is a safe choice
It's price is fairly low
4% yield is nice. 
Better than HISA or GICs 
Even if the markets collapsed you'd make your money back quick and fts wouldn't be hit as hard as other stocks.
But you could potentially earn more with other stocks, banks are fairly safe and climbing because if our dollar dropping. But have more to lose in a collapse.
Just my opinion. I now hold a small position in fortis!


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

SheaButters said:


> I think Fortis is a safe choice
> It's price is fairly low
> 4% yield is nice.
> Better than HISA or GICs
> Even if the markets collapsed you'd make your money back quick and fts wouldn't be hit as hard as other stocks.
> But you could potentially earn more with other stocks, banks are fairly safe and climbing because if our dollar dropping. But have more to lose in a collapse.
> Just my opinion. I now hold a small position in fortis!


^ I agree. Diversification is important but as far as utilities go I think Fortis is a safe bet (Note - I own FTS)


----------



## banjopete

I like it, and since the price dropped it's a little cheaper and the yield a little sweeter. I've got about a share a quarter dripping currently, nothing ridiculous but a set and forget type thing for me. It will be a fun one to look back on in a few years I hope.


----------



## leeder

For those people who are initiating new positions or adding to their existing positions, what are your expectations of Fortis? It does trade at reasonable valuations, with a decent dividend yield that is growing. However, in the past year or so, it hasn't shown much capital appreciation. Its dividend has grown in the single digit percentage. Also, with rates beginning to creep higher, this stock along with other defensive sectors will be negatively impacted. This is not to say it's a bad idea to invest in FTS, but I wonder if I'm missing some positive aspects. Or is this a stock people buy for purely dividend income purposes?

On another note (and sort of different stream of thought as I was typing this...), Fortis's steady Eddie nature seems to make it an ideal retirement stock. What other stocks would you invest in if you were retired?


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

leeder said:


> For those people who are initiating new positions or adding to their existing positions, what are your expectations of Fortis? It does trade at reasonable valuations, with a decent dividend yield that is growing. However, in the past year or so, it hasn't shown much capital appreciation. Its dividend has grown in the single digit percentage. Also, with rates beginning to creep higher, this stock along with other defensive sectors will be negatively impacted. This is not to say it's a bad idea to invest in FTS, but I wonder if I'm missing some positive aspects. Or is this a stock people buy for purely dividend income purposes?
> 
> On another note (and sort of different stream of thought as I was typing this...), Fortis's steady Eddie nature seems to make it an ideal retirement stock. What other stocks would you invest in if you were retired?


For me personally I don't invest in FTS for capital appreciation. Sure it will go up eventually over time but in my opinion it's not a growth stock it's a steady Eddie stock as you mentioned. The dividends keep coming and so do the dividend increases. So it's all about the increasing dividend income for the long term. I also view the big banks this way. As well as BCE and REI.UN


----------



## gibor365

leeder said:


> On another note (and sort of different stream of thought as I was typing this...), Fortis's steady Eddie nature seems to make it an ideal retirement stock. What other stocks would you invest in if you were retired?


I agree..... FTS is like GIC that yields more than 4% + it's dividend increased are inflation hedge....


----------



## leeder

OurBigFatWallet said:


> For me personally I don't invest in FTS for capital appreciation. Sure it will go up eventually over time but in my opinion it's not a growth stock it's a steady Eddie stock as you mentioned. The dividends keep coming and so do the dividend increases. So it's all about the increasing dividend income for the long term. I also view the big banks this way. As well as BCE and REI.UN


I do understand Fortis has an extraordinary track record for increasing dividends. If that's the case and we're looking purely on increasing dividend income, would you consider stocks like Enbridge, Ensign Energy Services, and Finning as good retirement stocks? After all, they've both increased their dividends for 10+ years (I think ESI has raised it close to 20 years).


----------



## doctrine

15 years for ESI, 18 years for Enbridge, 4 years for Finning (no increase in 2009). All good long term dividend increasers, although their initial yield is significantly lower than Fortis. That, of course, is the question - more yield, lower growth? Fortis did have higher increases in the past, so perhaps low increases for a few years and bigger ones 3-4 years out? No easy answers - and none of them is particularly "cheap" at the moment (cheapest to expensive: FTT, ESI, FTS, ENB).


----------



## leeder

@ doctrine: You're right on FTT. I missed the 2009 period where they kept their dividends the same. I also agree with you that there are not many "cheap" stocks. 

I suppose my ultimate question is, if a positive total return is what investors hope to achieve, is Fortis a suitable investment in the current environment? Interest rates (whether it is treasury yields or the key interest rate currently sitting at 1%) will eventually increase and that will likely negatively affect defensive stocks, such as REITs, telecoms, and utilities. Likewise, for retirees with no other source of income, is focusing on Fortis's 40-year history of dividend increases enough to justify the investment? After all, there are retirees and other people out there who take the same position as BigFatWallet in that they "don't invest in FTS for capital appreciation." It might be nice to get paid with a nice large (and slight growth) dividend, but should people care or consider that the stock price plummets 10% like Fortis did in 2013? I know historical performance does not predict future performance, but the consensus outlook for defensive investments and fixed income isn't all that great.


----------



## gibor365

doctrine said:


> 15 years for ESI, 18 years for Enbridge, 4 years for Finning (no increase in 2009). All good long term dividend increasers, although their initial yield is significantly lower than Fortis..


This is the point  In case of another recession FTT may not increase or even cut dividends, ESI has much lower than FTS initial tield and increases also not really big ... and FTS much more likely will be increasing dividend with modest 3-4% per year... also FTS's historical yield is pretty stable , between 3.5- 4.5%.
Generally , from what I see, for companies yielding 1-2%, it's much easier to raise dividends by double-digits, it's not easy to find stock yielding more than 4-5% and increasing dividends by double-digits....there are several such stock on NYSE, for example LMT or some tobaccos , ... on TSX I can think only about RCI.B (but last div increase was only 6%).


----------



## gibor365

leeder said:


> @
> I suppose my ultimate question is, if a positive total return is what investors hope to achieve, is Fortis a suitable investment in the current environment? Interest rates (whether it is treasury yields or the key interest rate currently sitting at 1%) will eventually increase and that will likely negatively affect defensive stocks, such as REITs, telecoms, and utilities.


It's a good question  in current low interest rate environment 3-4% dividends growth is OK with me, but with interest rate will be significantly higher, would stocks like FTS increase dividends by higher % ?


----------



## Killer Z

gibor said:


> I agree..... FTS is like GIC that yields more than 4% + it's dividend increased are inflation hedge....


I think a common misconception on this forum is the comparison of certain stocks to GICs or other fixed income products. I own shares in FTS, however regardless of it being a utilities stock, it remains subject to downward risk and cannot be compared to a guaranteed investment such as a GIC.

Leeder, with respect to your prior inquiries, I believe FTS is a good investment if you are satisfied with minimal growth, and a steady dividend. It has the longest dividend growth streak of any stock traded on the TSX (40 years), which is an impressive stat. Canadian Utilities (CU) comes second with 31yrs (another reputable utilities stock).


----------



## gibor365

Killer, I'm not comparing downside or upside, I'm comparing yield and income stream.... if you are living from dividend/interest income, it's very likely that FTS will continue to pay you about 4% with small increases every year regradless of the price of the stock and you can sell it any hour, if you buy 5 year GIC , you will get less than 3% interest without any increase and money is locked....
Regarding downside risk..... yeah with GIC you will get promissed 2.7 or 2.8% if you buy for 5 years, but if inflation will grow up significantly during those 5 years, your downside also will be significant.


----------



## leeder

@ Killer Z: No doubt FTS is a good company; however, when I look through the posts, many people seem to focus on the dividends. This isn't surprising when there are many dividend investors in this forum. However, unlike other dividend stocks, FTS has shown very little capital growth in the past couple years. Even the dividend growth isn't spectacular. In addition, with the outlook calling for higher interest rates, there may be a few 2013 occurrences where the stock price may fall 10% while the dividend may increase 3-4%. If the dividend increases 10%+ per year, I wouldn't mind as much. That's why I asked the questions above. Especially for retirees who are initiating new positions and looking at FTS, should they not worry about the capital appreciation and focus solely on the dividends or should they consider the potential total return while in a rising rate environment?

I personally own CU. As I indicated, because it has grown its dividend by double digit percentages in the last few years, I don't have a huge issue. Yield isn't as high as FTS, but it has greater growth than FTS. This is reflected in the stock price in the last 5 years compared to FTS.


----------



## AltaRed

It is bizarre to consider dividend yields on stocks like FTS to be akin to interest yields on GICs, or for anyone to look only at the dividend stream to the exclusion of stock price. Does no one remember what happened to TransCanada many years ago? Does no one think that Fortis could not find itself in a similar pickle with its acquisition adventures?

Bottom line is a dividend stream is a pretty good way to fund one's cash needs during retirement but it is not infallible nor should it be the vast majority of one's retirement income.


----------



## gibor365

Just run both FTS and CU on dividend calculator, FTS current yield 4.18, dividend growth (average for last 3 years) 3.3%, CU: 2.73% and 10%. Assume dividend growth stays the same, on year 8 - CU Div Yield on Cost will reach FTS's. Only on year 15 CU Compounded Div Return will overpass FTS's.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

leeder said:


> I do understand Fortis has an extraordinary track record for increasing dividends. If that's the case and we're looking purely on increasing dividend income, would you consider stocks like Enbridge, Ensign Energy Services, and Finning as good retirement stocks? After all, they've both increased their dividends for 10+ years (I think ESI has raised it close to 20 years).


There are a few other factors I'd consider but generally a company that can steadily increase their dividend over a long period of time is a good sign. Of course their payout ratio would need to remain constant for it to be considered positive by the markets. I haven't looked at Enbridge, Ensign or Finning personally but an increasing dividend is promising


----------



## Pluto

Any one considering taking the Mini tender offer? I think it is 29.25 US per share. I'm considering it myself, but haven't decided yet.


----------



## doctrine

Why would you sell your shares at a 4% discount to market price, unless you have millions of shares and are worried about moving the stock price more than that?


----------



## gibor365

Why this is discount? Offer is $29.25US that higher that current $30.63CAD
Fortis: 13 Different Insiders Have Purchased Shares This Month
http://seekingalpha.com/article/207...urchased-shares-this-month?source=google_news


----------



## hboy43

gibor said:


> Why this is discount? Offer is $29.25US that higher that current $30.63CAD


I suspected (let's be honest I knew) that there is an error with the above due to the "no free lunch" principle.

A quick Google search has everyone including the board of directors of Fortis referring to a 4% discount, so the offer is $CAN29.25 not $US.

Duly noted that the error was not yours gibor, you merely provided a correct analysis based on the facts as told to you. In defense of Pluto, it is weak journalism for US news sources to quote the figure of $29.25 without explicitly indicating it is Canadian funds.

hboy43


----------



## gibor365

You are right , looks like it was mistake regarding currency 

Fortis Inc. Recommends Shareholders Reject TRC Capital Corporation's "Mini-Tender" Offer 
http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140307-906650.html


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

Just wondering what the upside would be to any investor who accepted the mini tender?


----------



## Pluto

A notice from my broker claims it is in US dollars. But as others have noted above, Fortis claims it is in CD dollars. So hmmmm? Anyway if it really is in US dollars it is worth considering.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

If it's in USD $ that would make more sense. Otherwise if it's in CDN $ I'm not sure why any shareholder would accept the offer. I don't see the potential upside to that?


----------



## Butters

_representing a discount of 4.38%_
Fortis site suggests it's in canadian (linked above)

why would anyone take a 4% loss? that's stupid

unless it was someone who held the 3 million shares and wanted to dump them all at once, lol


----------



## Pluto

Now my broker has sent an amended notice. They now say the offer is in CDN, not US dollars. So obviously, it is a bad deal. Wonder why they bother making the offer?


----------



## Cal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...king-past-fortiss-soft-patch/article17673140/


----------



## Dave

It is the only ''loser'' in my portfolio as well. I do not complain because I could do much worse than that. I bought if for the sake of diversifications after I bouhght full positions in all the stocks on my watchlist last summer and now I am 1% underwater. No big deal. However, it is never too late to re-evaluate a holding.


----------



## daddybigbucks

she is a funny stock. Good yield , p/e below 20. gas and electricity utility.
I'm not sure why is doesnt break out.
but i also don't know why i dont buy more.

during the crash of 2008 /09 it fell from a high of $30 to $22, which is remarkable for that crash.


----------



## Killer Z

This one is a long term hold. Not expecting much, just steady/secure dividends .......in fact, probably the most secure dividend out there.


----------



## Butters

I agree with Killer, it drops 1% each ex dividend date, then it recovers it over the next week of trading slow and steady haha just staying even


----------



## donald

I treat fortis like a ''bond'' stock....I have a couple stocks out of the 18 I hold(tfsa/rsp)that are ''designed'' to hold the fort.....Yeah I know it can get whacked and carries risk but it is in my mind one of the safest income stocks(watch,it will get smoked now lol)
I have been watching it closely and low 30's/just ever so slightly high 29 and change is a big support line(to hard not to scoop it up as a income play,and that is with rate hike headwinds and all the capex they have spending ie:buying up the latest company they bought last yr)


----------



## Edgar

http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Loc...head-Stan-Marshall-to-retire-at-end-of-2014/1

For anyone who might care, here's some news that could have possibly been missed


----------



## leeder

I wonder what happened on Friday with this stock. It closed on Thursday at $32.41 and opened at $31.37 on Friday morning before closing at $32.54. My friend has had a limit order under $32 for a while. He was stoked to add to his position at Friday's opening price.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I'm with you donald. I consider FTS and a few other stocks, including some stocks in the U.S. in my portfolio "bond-like".


----------



## Cal

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestingandretirement.com/canadian-dividend-all-star-list/


----------



## daddybigbucks

Not sure what is going on with fortis but some enitity seems to be full on buy.


----------



## humble_pie

(totally off topic) (so very sorry) (to daddy) DBB i regard you as the forest products expert on here so i am wondering if you might have an opinion to share on fortress paper. Not so long ago a darling of several on this forum Today their debentures are trading in the $50 range.

fortress still owns a production facility in switzerland that produces the high security paper upon which swiss francs are printed. They are trying to work a turnaround. This all sounds reassuring, yet still the stock remains a dog among dogs. One might even say that price-wise it is a swine among dogs.

is this once proud company truly a piece of junk? any opinion would be appreciated.


----------



## Butters

^^^^ she's into the good stuff



FTS.to made their acquisition of a US company, now that its done and paid for its starting to get cash again.

also with the market up and down, people are looking for a good place to hide. 
CU isn't doing good a bit overvalued but next year it will be good, FTS is still fair valued.


----------



## My Own Advisor

"also with the market up and down, people are looking for a good place to hide."

This is why I like dividend-paying stocks, especially the ones that have paid dividends for decades. Regardless what the market does, I get paid. Indexing everything else outside dividend paying stocks....


----------



## Eder

I believe I read last week that FTS was changing debentures into common stock causing tracking indexes like TSX60 to increase the weighting of Fortis.


----------



## daddybigbucks

humble_pie said:


> (totally off topic) (so very sorry) (to daddy) DBB
> 
> 
> is this once proud company truly a piece of junk? any opinion would be appreciated.


your inbox is full..
_im flattered at your words of "expert". But in all reality im not an expert on forestry industry.
I have not even heard of Fortress.

i did well with one company in the forestry because i micromanaged everything about the company and the sector for a while.

i did take a look at Fortress's financial and i get a realistic book value of $7 and its at $2. but its losing money every quarter.
In a different time and place, i would have been interested in this. 
But im converting everything over to dividend payers and taking some time off from watching the markets.

good luck though._


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

Im with MOA on this one, Fortis is a long term hold for me. Not sure why it's gone up so much lately but not complaining


----------



## My Own Advisor

Yes and no, it costs more to DRIP now 

Long-term hold for sure my friend.


----------



## humble_pie

thankx very much, daddy BB
best wishes with the dividend portfolio


----------



## My Own Advisor

Alright HP, what are we missing here?


----------



## indexxx

OurBigFatWallet said:


> Im with MOA on this one, Fortis is a long term hold for me. Not sure why it's gone up so much lately but not complaining


Was very fortunate to buy in on FTS in March- now up over 20%


----------



## 1980z28

Have purchase fts from many years ago and add every month


----------



## Killer Z

I have held this stock for some time too, but recently trimmed it back as FTS was became overweight in my portfolio with its recent run. I try not to let any one position exceed 7% of my overall portfolio.


----------



## Pluto

recent run up in FTS:

this started around the time other stocks were pulling back. There was a move out of toppy looking stocks (eg Cn banks that got a little haircut) and into "safer" ones like consumer staples and utilities. 
Also, hasn't Fortis been digesting a rather large US acquisition? And isn't the idea that once that is completed it's earnings will improve? the run up could be partly due to anticipating that. Plus if the earnings improve, people will anticipate a larger dividend increase. I think the last year or two it has only been a penny increase - very symbolic increase which was probably done to maintain its streak of increases. 

I'm not sure that FTS is bond like because bonds don't grow by acquisition. However, it is bond similar as it is used as an income investment and a bit sensitive to interest rates.


----------



## doctrine

Great to own FTS here I think, but definitely expensive and bid up in a search for more defensive stocks. I think you need to buy into FTS with at least a 4% yield, which is $32. It would be interesting to see if the dividend increases by more than a penny, which has been the M.O. for a few years now.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Agreed doctrine, "getting in" closer to $32 is good but happy to DRIP every quarter all the same. I hope it's at least a $0.02 dividend hike. Getting tired of the penny and the penny is dead anyhow  A nickel increase would be nice!!!


----------



## warp

I have been watching Fortis for what seems like forever , but thanks to my stupidity, never bought it, which is doubly dumb when i consider that its the kind of stock that I like. Kudos to those of you with the good sense to buy.

I almost pulled the trigger at the beginning of the year when it dropped below $30, and the div yield was around 4.2%.
I was waiting and waiting for this, as I do use dividend yield as a value metric at times, but decided to hold off..( I guess for a lower price).
This was a foolish decision, which I now regret every time I see the stock price get closer and closer to $40. Of course now, I do think its a bit overpriced, as investors have been spooked by the market drop, and have piled into "safer" stocks.

At some point though, I do want to own Fortis, as it is a good long term stock. The only thing I do not like about it is the tiny div increases they give every year , just to hold onto their streak.


----------



## maxandrelax

Just a few years ago, people were freaking out about how FTS was going nowhere. Another example that solidifies buy when everyone hates it.


----------



## dubmac

warp said:


> I have been watching Fortis for what seems like forever , but thanks to my stupidity, never bought it, which is doubly dumb when i consider that its the kind of stock that I like. This was a foolish decision, which I now regret every time I see the stock price get closer and closer to $40. At some point though, I do want to own Fortis, as it is a good long term stock. The only thing I do not like about it is the tiny div increases they give every year , just to hold onto their streak.


don't beat yourself up about not pulling the trigger - there will be more opportunities. As for small increases in dividends - it keeps their payoff ratio manageable.
I bought this one in 2009 - and held - it hasn't really done much of anyhting until last month. this one was near "dog" status for many years.


----------



## Blush

Thinking about buying Fortis Stock for TFSA or RRSP? I have 30% VAB in my RRSP...should I switch some of this to FTS stock?


----------



## 1980z28

IMHO I believe that FTS is a large growth stock with a div of .34 cents,I own about 3k shares,it is my largest holding,I seem to keep adding

Can also get CU or EMA


----------



## My Own Advisor

FTS, EMA and CU provide "bond-like" payments and even better, their dividends increase every year


----------



## Killer Z

My Own Advisor said:


> FTS, EMA and CU provide "bond-like" payments and even better, their dividends increase every year


MOA, just curious but do you own all 3?


----------



## My Own Advisor

Yep.


----------



## thepitchedlink

My Own Advisor said:


> FTS, EMA and CU provide "bond-like" payments and even better, their dividends increase every year


That's a statement almost worth it's own thread......you really feel they are that "bomber" in the long run?? I'm sitting in the position of figuring out what to do with my " bond " money....I can't bring myself to buy any bonds.....a HISA seems to make the most sense to me...but how the get that money working a bit more.....


----------



## InvestmentIQ

1980z28 said:


> IMHO I believe that FTS is a large growth stock with a div of .34 cents,I own about 3k shares,it is my largest holding,I seem to keep adding
> 
> Can also get CU or EMA


How is FTS a growth stock? It is far from that. It is one with stable dividends for more conservative investor who is investing for the long-term.


----------



## 1980z28

InvestmentIQ said:


> How is FTS a growth stock? It is far from that. It is one with stable dividends for more conservative investor who is investing for the long-term.


Company almost at 10 billion
last year at 7 billion

last year at 29 now more than 29

looks like growth to me,they continue to make purchases,,,will maybe get to 40 maybe 41


----------



## My Own Advisor

I think it will get to $41 before year end. If not, that's fine, I get paid and will likely get another raise (dividend increase) in December 2015


----------



## supperfly17

1980z28 said:


> Company almost at 10 billion
> last year at 7 billion
> 
> last year at 29 now more than 29
> 
> looks like growth to me,they continue to make purchases,,,will maybe get to 40 maybe 41


It will make contact with earth as all utilities do.


----------



## Flash

My Own Advisor said:


> FTS, EMA and CU provide "bond-like" payments and even better, their dividends increase every year


If there was to pick one, which one would that be tho? Seems FTS is the most depended steady and secure?


----------



## 1980z28

Flash said:


> If there was to pick one, which one would that be tho? Seems FTS is the most depended steady and secure?


All of them have there good points


----------



## My Own Advisor

Agreed.


----------



## leeder

I personally hold CU and will add to it if it pulls back. That said, I bought FTS for my parents last spring to give them a nice steady income stock. The dividend and dividend raise were expected. The bonus was, for some reason, when the stock opened the day I bought, it spiked down to the mid $30. It then popped back up intraday into the $32. Thankfully I had a limit order on it for my folks... it was one lucky buy.


----------



## My Own Advisor

You did get lucky  Better to be lucky than good as they say. I would happily add more if it went to mid-30s but I don't see that happening...


----------



## fatcat

i bought equal shares of cu, ema, and fts at the same time

ema is killing ... and that doesn't even include divvys where ema has the highest yield of the 3 

cu is lagging and has the lowest yield but will probably spring ahead at some point


----------



## GGO

Newbie here. Wonder how do we justify high P/E or FTS compared to other utility stock CU or EMA ? I understand that last quarter results affected by UNS acquisition but would we see higher EPS in coming quarters due to this acquisition ?


----------



## 1980z28

Everyone has a need for there product

New startups are expensive


Just like refinerys


----------



## My Own Advisor

fatcat said:


> i bought equal shares of cu, ema, and fts at the same time
> 
> ema is killing ... and that doesn't even include divvys where ema has the highest yield of the 3
> 
> cu is lagging and has the lowest yield but will probably spring ahead at some point


I'm tempted to buy some more CU for that reason, lagging...

Every spring it seems to take a small jump so need more before it does.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

Ive wondered that too and I hope it goes down again so I can buy more


----------



## Killer Z

The general Utility favorites on this forum appear to be FTS, EMA and CU. Every now and then ACO.X also appears to get some love too.

I personally own FTS, however have always kept a close eye on CU and EMA. My question is as follows:

Is it necessary to diversify within this sector? 

There is no questioning the importance of diversification, however would choosing one's favorite Canadian Utility position and adding to it not be satisfactory? Just a thought for discussion as there appears to be quite a few collectors of these positions.


----------



## leeder

GGO said:


> Newbie here. Wonder how do we justify high P/E or FTS compared to other utility stock CU or EMA ? I understand that last quarter results affected by UNS acquisition but would we see higher EPS in coming quarters due to this acquisition ?


I don't know for sure if the UNS acquisition would bolster EPS. I believe an analyst said that the acquisition is poised to give Fortis a 12% EPS growth through 2018. However, current investors buy this stock even at high P/E because of its quality. It has not stopped raising its dividend for the past 42 or so years. There's high barriers of entry. The business is mostly regulated, so the revenue is pretty steady. I see this as a low growth, income stock. But the price appreciation in the past year was a bonus. I, myself, don't own it. However, I recommended the purchase to a friend and bought it for my parents. All of them are conservative investors. This stock is definitely a darling for conservative income investors.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I think so Killer, to diversify. For the same reasons it's great to own JNJ, PG and UL - competition along with diversification is good. That's my $0.02.


----------



## AltaRed

My Own Advisor said:


> I think so Killer, to diversify. For the same reasons it's great to own JNJ, PG and UL - competition along with diversification is good. That's my $0.02.


More importantly, FTS, CU and EMA serve different markets for the most part (possibly some overlap between FTS and CU, but not much). The electrical markets each is in, for the most part, is regulated quite differently and supply/demand balances are different.


----------



## Killer Z

AltaRed said:


> More importantly, FTS, CU and EMA serve different markets for the most part (possibly some overlap between FTS and CU, but not much). The electrical markets each is in, for the most part, is regulated quite differently and supply/demand balances are different.


Good points gentlemen, thanks.


----------



## fatcat

Killer Z said:


> The general Utility favorites on this forum appear to be FTS, EMA and CU. Every now and then ACO.X also appears to get some love too.
> 
> I personally own FTS, however have always kept a close eye on CU and EMA. My question is as follows:
> 
> Is it necessary to diversify within this sector?
> 
> There is no questioning the importance of diversification, however would choosing one's favorite Canadian Utility position and adding to it not be satisfactory? Just a thought for discussion as there appears to be quite a few collectors of these positions.


i suspect most people hold these as perpetual, long term holds and don't trade them much at all which makes owning the 3 major names a good idea ... it diversifies risk and avoids a lot of work in monitoring positions and picking winners


----------



## GGO

leeder said:


> GGO said:
> 
> 
> 
> Newbie here. Wonder how do we justify high P/E or FTS compared to other utility stock CU or EMA ? I understand that last quarter results affected by UNS acquisition but would we see higher EPS in coming quarters due to this acquisition ?
> 
> 
> 
> I don't know for sure if the UNS acquisition would bolster EPS. I believe an analyst said that the acquisition is poised to give Fortis a 12% EPS growth through 2018. However, current investors buy this stock even at high P/E because of its quality. It has not stopped raising its dividend for the past 42 or so years. There's high barriers of entry. The business is mostly regulated, so the revenue is pretty steady. I see this as a low growth, income stock. But the price appreciation in the past year was a bonus. I, myself, don't own it. However, I recommended the purchase to a friend and bought it for my parents. All of them are conservative investors. This stock is definitely a darling for conservative income investors.
Click to expand...

Thanks for sharing thoughts. I am considering this also as conservative investor and long time hold. Just try to figure out what should be a fair price to enter.


----------



## 1980z28

GGO said:


> Thanks for sharing thoughts. I am considering this also as conservative investor and long time hold. Just try to figure out what should be a fair price to enter.


I now own 3500 shares of FTS collect about 1200/Q or 5000.00 a year

I just keep adding,IMHO there is no waiting to get in,price will stay steady and rise,may drop on large acquisition 

Now is a great time to get in or next month really anytime


----------



## GGO

1980z28 said:


> I now own 3500 shares of FTS collect about 1200/Q or 5000.00 a year
> 
> I just keep adding,IMHO there is no waiting to get in,price will stay steady and rise,may drop on large acquisition
> 
> Now is a great time to get in or next month really anytime


Wow, that's quite a size of position. Dividend income is nice. Congrats!


----------



## My Own Advisor

Exactly, wow. $1,200 per quarter from FTS dividends is huge.


----------



## 1980z28

My Own Advisor said:


> Exactly, wow. $1,200 per quarter from FTS dividends is huge.


When I sold my 4200 shares of COS @12.00

I got 2000 shares of csh.un 12.56 and 600 shares of FTS 41.00

Will shop some more this week maybe some liq and car.un

26 months away from retirement,have to balance


----------



## 1980z28

1980z28 said:


> Company almost at 10 billion
> last year at 7 billion
> 
> last year at 29 now more than 29
> 
> looks like growth to me,they continue to make purchases,,,will maybe get to 40 maybe 41


Looks like 40 maybe more


----------



## 1980z28

My Own Advisor said:


> I think it will get to $41 before year end. If not, that's fine, I get paid and will likely get another raise (dividend increase) in December 2015


maybe sooner


----------



## GGO

Bought some at 39 and will add at next dip.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Nice little dip going on.....


----------



## AltaRed

thepitchedlink said:


> Nice little dip going on.....


Another $5 drop or so and I would be interested assuming nothing material has changed with the company.


----------



## gladaki

I am just curious why not ATCO. Low payout ratio and on analysis its trading cheaper than FTS in terms of earnings.


----------



## AltaRed

gladaki said:


> I am just curious why not ATCO. Low payout ratio and on analysis its trading cheaper than FTS in terms of earnings.


That is because ACO.X/CU has almost total exposure to Alberta (structures business notwithstanding). FTS has minor exposure to AB power prices. Investors are spooked by the AB slump and Notley in particular.


----------



## gladaki

AltaRed said:


> That is because ACO.X/CU has almost total exposure to Alberta (structures business notwithstanding). FTS has minor exposure to AB power prices. Investors are spooked by the AB slump and Notley in particular.


What about Payout ratios 92% for fortis vs 24% of Atco 
I always thought payout ratio is one of the factors which drives investment decision.


----------



## My Own Advisor

It is for me (payout ratio) for a new holding gladaki but I'm not too worried about FTS. This too shall pass. 

I'm more than happy to let my dividends get reinvested for another 1, maybe 2 shares next quarter. Rinse and repeat and hold.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

I sold Fortis before the dip but still believe in it long term, I'll buy more if the dip continues and I think the (small) dividend increases will continue


----------



## bmoney

Sold all my FTS last December in the 40s it had a nice run but the breakout in Oct-Nov '14 above $35 was extraordinary. It's too early to backup the truck, but might be good for a nibble if it breaks down to the low 30s.


----------



## gladaki

So 2% discount offer through DRIP still valid when you get from TD waterhouse.


----------



## gladaki

My Own Advisor said:


> You did get lucky  Better to be lucky than good as they say. I would happily add more if it went to mid-30s but I don't see that happening...


Right now its mid 30's are you buying


----------



## doctrine

FTS would be a good buy at or below $30, I used to own around that level. Down 15% from the 52 week high, so maybe it will get there.


----------



## AltaRed

doctrine said:


> FTS would be a good buy at or below $30, I used to own around that level. Down 15% from the 52 week high, so maybe it will get there.


About where I would buy as well. I have an Alert set at $31 to get my attention.


----------



## gladaki

AltaRed said:


> About where I would buy as well. I have an Alert set at $31 to get my attention.


Yes, 30$ seems like a good price. Its Graham price (22.5*EPS*BV) comes around 29$.
Atco seems to be trading much lower from its graham price value (44$)


----------



## blin10

never say never but I don't see FTS hitting 30's any time soon...


----------



## My Own Advisor

Buying more every quarter but low on cash this month for a lump sum purchase.


----------



## 1980z28

I will also be getting back in


----------



## Butters

1980z28 said:


> I will also be getting back in


i should have sold when you sold haha... glad im still up like 17% on it, but lost like 15% in the last few weeks... crazy


----------



## 1980z28

SheaButters said:


> i should have sold when you sold haha... glad im still up like 17% on it, but lost like 15% in the last few weeks... crazy



When I sold
I got 168k,plus I put in another bunch of cash in
Purchased BDT,SNC,ARE,CSH.UN,RUF.UN,BEI.UN,CAR.UN,so I am still down,but collecting some dividends and buying my way to even,will be watching to get back in


----------



## thepitchedlink

Anyone getting back in yet?


----------



## 1980z28

thepitchedlink said:


> Anyone getting back in yet?


I am considering a 500 share dip back in


----------



## jargey3000

FTS seems to be bouncing around like a yo-yo last few days. Any thoughts ? Or is it just following the market trend?


----------



## jargey3000

yo... down by over 2% today (again), market UP. looks like large volume too? any thoughts /comments as to why?


----------



## zylon

*jargey3000

Looks like the whole sector took a hit, maybe anticipating the start of rising interest rates.*










live chart link: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPTUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p48453086482&a=434043190

utilities table from Globe & Mail (might not work in some browsers)
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com...01511250531460002&pi_currency=&pi_param_1=268


----------



## thepitchedlink

Yup, all my utilities are getting hammered right now...


----------



## fatcat

jargey3000 said:


> yo... down by over 2% today (again), market UP. looks like large volume too? any thoughts /comments as to why?


speculation as to the interest rate hike and the consequences or lack thereof ?


----------



## jargey3000

dunno....I guess it's that..... anyone see a little buying opp. here?


----------



## nortel'd

I’m blaming the hype surrounding the November 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference. 

If the environmentalists get their way, utility companies that generate part of their electricity using coal will be put on notice that they must/have to eliminate and decommission all their coal-fired generators by such and such a date.

Fortis operates some coal-fired generators. I think there is an expectation that Fortis earnings will be lower and resulting profits less. 

And if that doesn’t tickle your fancy, a couple of way out there observations ... 
Do-It-Yourself Solar power systems are becoming cheaper to install. 
More and more people are beginning to fear a cyber-attack on the electrical grid.

I am waiting for that conference to end.


----------



## AltaRed

The UNS Energy acquisition has 59% of its electrical generation coal fired with a plan (hope and prayer?) that it will be less than 30% by the end of the decade. Gotta hope FTS did not pay much, if anything, for coal fired generation. It could become a liablity longer term, especially if the Republicans lose grip on Congress next election and not gain the White House


----------



## humble_pie

from a different perspective, i've always been as reluctant to purchase fortis as i'm also reluctant to purchase telus & for the same reason - the montreal options markets in these federally-regulated stocks are miserable.

illiquid, no traders, bid/ask spreads so huge you could drive a semi through them. In LEAPs options it's not unusual to see spreads as wide as $3-4.

recently a source confirmed to me that the market makers for options in federally regulated stocks are all located overseas, in london or amsterdam. Evidently it's necessary to regulate the options as well, because otherwise it might be possible for an evil foreigner to sneak up on something like fortis, gradually buy all the calls & then POW, pop out of the woodwork & declare he's an ISIL who intends to blow up the national canadian power grid.

with a few exceptions that enjoy heavy institutional participation (canadian banks, BCE), the canadian regulated options markets are so bad that no north american broker is willing to take the business. So the london & amsterdam MMs collect those bits of options business by default.

the british & the dutch never pay any attention to their canadian regulation option markets. If perchance some poor sod in canada wishes to do a buy/write at a reasonable price in, say, fortis, he has to submit the contingent order through his broker, then personally phone a secret number at the montreal exchange & get them to negotiate a fair price out of london or amsterdam.

it's a bit like carrying on business via carrier pigeon communications.


----------



## jargey3000

dammit! why didn't i get out at $42 !!


----------



## My Own Advisor

I just keep DRIPping.


----------



## leeder

jargey3000 said:


> dammit! why didn't i get out at $42 !!


You're really not doing a good job with choosing stocks, if your plan is to generate capital gains from this stock. This stock is an income investor's dream.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

leeder said:


> You're really not doing a good job with choosing stocks, if your plan is to generate capital gains from this stock. This stock is an income investor's dream.


fortis is best to be looked at from a Dividend Growth Investing pov. the dividend is rock solid. they increase every year. don't worry about the stock price and hold it for the income. @ $42 it was way above its trend lines. i like to trim a little bit when my core positions are getting over heated and add on dips. good way to minimize your risk a bit and take advantage of price appreciation while still maintaining the bulk of your divi income.

technically, the 50 day recently crossed above the 200 day which is bullish. the 200 day has been a price ceiling since july though. probably more to do with the overall direction of the TSX.


----------



## jargey3000

appreciate the comments. tks.


----------



## nortel'd

Geoffrey Morgan's (| November 12, 2015 | Last Updated: Nov 27 3:57 PM ET) _The Financial Post _Alberta utility firms brace for early phase out of coal under Notley’s climate change policies article is well worth the time it takes to read. 

There is no mention of Fortis but the second last paragraph has me convinced rather than Fortis, Canadian Utilities may provide me with the safer income stream going forward. 


> _Canadian Utilities is supportive of the government’s decision to move away from coal and hadn’t built coal-fired power plants since the 1980s for fear of stranding assets. Now, the company is similarly looking past natural gas technology._


.

I shall continue to hold Fortis in my non-registered account. BUT...

oops .... edited later because I forgot to add


> Canadian Utilities, and its parent company Atco Group, own stakes in three coal-fired generating stations that must now retire at 2030, rather than 2036, 2039 and 2040.


----------



## AltaRed

It is the utilities that built coal fired generation since circa year 2000 that are in the major pickle. Given climate change got momentum/traction circa late 1990's, it seems now like foolhardy executive decision making to have continued to build coal plants after that date.I think Capital Power and Fortis were the main culprits with the latest plant coming on stream a mere 3-5 years ago but I've not seen an extensive list of coal plants build since circa 2000. 

I will speculate that most industrial plants are built with about a 30 year amortization of initial capital, but with increasing sustaining capital at about that time and considering a 40-50 year revenue stream. As th article suggests, I believe it is not so much the stranded capital of the old plants that is the issue but the pre-mature need for new capital. New capital in renewables and gas fired generation is going to occur anyway to support increased electrical requirements in the province.

I suspect a few of the most efficient old plants will continue to operate past 2030 but with emission penalties. Especially so after the NDP is turfed out of office which is likely in 2019, but no later than 2023.

Added: If someone has found a complete list of AB and even SK coal fired plants (SK is going to have to go the way of AB eventually as well), it would be appreciated.

Added: Best I can tell is CU/Atco has only Battle River and Sheerness coal fired plants, all 1969-1990 vintage, the newest one in Sheerness being 50-50 owned by Atco/Trans Alta Cogen LP. Fortis owns none in Canada best I can tell but has significant coal exposure in its Arizona business.


----------



## nortel'd

Saskatchewan supposedly has three facilities that use coal to generate electricity. Boundary Dam and Shand Power Stations are both near Estevan, SK, and Poplar River Power Station is located near Coronach, SK  
I can’t state what percentage of their electrical power is produced by coal. 

On one webpage they state, “_Coal is a non-renewable energy source that represents 30% of our total generating capacity_.” On another they use a circle graph indicating coal was used to produce 44% of Sask Power’s electricity in 2014. 

They have also acknowledged “_the federal government states that all coal-fired units built before 1975 must close by 2020, and units built after 1975 will close by 2030, unless they have Carbon Capture and Storage technology (CCS)._"


----------



## AltaRed

The difference is 'installed capacity' versus 'power produced'. That means the coal fired plants were up and running more often than other plants, i.e. likely preferentially base load plants.


----------



## londoncalling

The Boundary Dam already has Carbon Cap technology. It was the first in Saskatchewan. My guess is when it is politically convenient the provincial government will announce the other 2 facilities doing the same.


----------



## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> It is the utilities that built coal fired generation since circa year 2000 that are in the major pickle. Given climate change got momentum/traction circa late 1990's, it seems now like foolhardy executive decision making to have continued to build coal plants after that date.I think Capital Power and Fortis were the main culprits with the latest plant coming on stream a mere 3-5 years ago but I've not seen an extensive list of coal plants build since circa 2000 ...
> 
> Added: Best I can tell is CU/Atco has only Battle River and Sheerness coal fired plants, all 1969-1990 vintage, the newest one in Sheerness being 50-50 owned by Atco/Trans Alta Cogen LP. Fortis owns none in Canada best I can tell but has significant coal exposure in its Arizona business.




what a fascinating, forward-looking discussion. Rivals or beats anything one could find in the globe or the finPost. A big thankx to all who are posting their knowledge.

altaRed i've juxtaposed the above 2 sentences out of your recent post because they seem to contradict each other on Fortis. ie Fortis is a culprit with new coal-fired plant coming on stream vs Fortis owns none (coal-fired plants) in canada although does have coal exposure in arizona.

i appreciate that information is sketchy & hard to come by, in fact perhaps it is being patched together in these cmf posts for the first time & therefore the picture is a groundbreaking collage of reporting.

nevertheless would all agree that concern over forced premature renewal of coal-fired plants is a factor that is weighing down FTS price at present?

forward-looking charts in FTS - stochs, BBands, RSI - are looking bullish. I've been buying when i can but gosh those option dealers in london & amsterdam are stubborn.


----------



## AltaRed

I was mistaken. Capital Power built their latest (20112 start up) in partnership with TA (Keephills 3) and another in 2005 in partnership with TA (Genesee 3). Obviously is not Fortis. Whatever were they thinking?


----------



## jargey3000

yo-yo's up again over 3% again today


----------



## jargey3000

noticed it closed at $38.95 today. sweet! where's it heading?


----------



## My Own Advisor

I personally prefer lower prices. In my 60s, I'll change my tune


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

I picked up some more shares a couple weeks ago at $36. I will buy more if it goes back down


----------



## jargey3000

would anyone consider SELLING ....if it hits $40 in the next few days???? (assuming maybe, that you think it might go back down to the $36 range again in the near future...?)


----------



## My Own Advisor

Nope. Long-term buy and hold and reinvest dividends until I'm 60, then turn on the cash flow tap.


----------



## jargey3000

yeah... prob. the right answer......


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

I don't plan on selling either. It's a long term hold for me. Love the divvy


----------



## doctrine

I wouldn't sell at $40, because it's on a tear and might hit a new high. It might be a sell above $45. It's definitely off the buy list above $38 or so. Lots of great value elsewhere.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I agree doctrine. Thoughts on CDN banks like NA and LB? Pretty beaten up.


----------



## doctrine

I added to RY, BNS and NA all in the last month or so! LB looks good too, but if the larger caps are equal or better value I'll just go with them.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

I will probably trim some but wait for a few more %. i like to recycle my capital in the way of when stocks i own get a little overvalued I'll trim some then take the proceeds and try to find value. 
i think what you're seeing right now is a flight to quality from long only fund managers into safe dividend aristocrat type names. looks at stuff like KMB CLX AWK ELS O get bid up to the moon. these are very defensive names and i think managers are preparing for a recession.


----------



## pastorash

Wow.


----------



## Canadian

I'm not a holder nor a close follower of Fortis but would be interested to hear what others have to say about the ITC deal.


----------



## Pluto

Evidently, fts is out of favour today. down 9+%? When ever does it drop this much in one day?


----------



## pastorash

All I read recently from an analyst was FTS over enthusiasm for US acquisitions, which obviously the shareholders don't share as we see today. I picked up a bit of FTS stock today, been wanting this dividend power for awhile, but who knows, dividend policy may alter slightly with this move.


----------



## treva84

pastorash said:


> All I read recently from an analyst was FTS over enthusiasm for US acquisitions, which obviously the shareholders don't share as we see today. I picked up a bit of FTS stock today, been wanting this dividend power for awhile, but who knows, dividend policy may alter slightly with this move.


Yeah I guess Mr. Market doesn't like the acquisition. As a FTS shareholder I'm a bit embarrassed that I don't know much about it the company they bought. I do know they payed a premium over market value (12% I think) to get the company; perhaps the drop is partly related to that premium.


----------



## jargey3000

is this a buying opportunity today?


----------



## Eder

Fortis has a great management team and able to determine opportunity better than salaried analysts. This buy will be a terrific boost to Fortis growth & ability to raise their dividend. They have shown their ability to merge acquisitions smoothly in the past.
This is not Trans Alta.


----------



## pastorash

Down 12% now, wish I'd been patient, picked it up when it was 8% down earlier today. Luckily it's a long term buy.


----------



## Canadian

This drop has me intrigued. My portfolio could use some more defensive names. Today's drop is pretty significant for 1 day but if you look back a few months, the price has been lower that today's price on multiple occasions. Going to wait a bit to see where this goes but it's on my watchlist.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Wow. , look at her go. Finger on the buy button


----------



## nortel'd

I am not pleased they are taking on another 4.4 billion in debt but I just bought 207 Fortis @ 36.40 to add to the stash I purchased back in 2007.

BTW x-dividend is Feb 12, 2016. ... 

Some of the highlights that helped me press "buy" instead of "sell".



> Feb 9 (Reuters) - Canadian utility Fortis Inc said it would buy U.S. power transmission company ITC Holdings Corp for $6.9 billion - its biggest deal ever - to boost its exposure to regulated power markets, which have stable power prices.
> 
> Falling electricity demand due to increased energy efficiency has spurred a spate of mergers in the United States, with utilities looking to cut their exposure to volatile power prices in unregulated markets.





> Fortis said that including ITC's debt of about $4.4 billion, the deal was worth $11.3 billion, or $44.90 per ITC share, based on the Canadian dollar-U.S. dollar exchange rate and Fortis's closing price on Monday.





> The deal, expected to close in late 2016, requires approval from FERC, the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.
> 
> Fortis said it would fund the deal with a $2 billion debt offering and by selling up to 19.9 percent of ITC to an infrastructure-focused investor, which it did not name.



I have my fingers crossed ... I bought Bell and Telus back in November before their shares dropped.


----------



## gibor365

Added a bit of FTS at $36.10


----------



## treva84

nortel'd said:


> I am not pleased they are taking on another 4.4 billion in debt but I just bought 207 Fortis @ 36.40 to add to the stash I purchased back in 2007.
> 
> BTW x-dividend is Feb 12, 2016. ...
> 
> Some of the highlights that helped me press "buy" instead of "sell".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I have my fingers crossed ... I bought Bell and Telus back in November before their shares dropped.


Buying into regulated markets lowers the risk and essentially guarantee long term return, as the rule of law allows companies to charge prices that lead to a (capped) profit. Much like the past, I think the growth will be slow, but stable. I'm very long on FTS; I think this is a good move to increase their exposure to different markets. Overall there may be less power consumed as efficiency rises but nonetheless everyone needs electricity.


----------



## gardner

Added at $36.80. I hope I missed the bottom.


----------



## CPA Candidate

I don't understand the drop today, it had such good technical momentum!  I just added it to my momentum (buy high, sell low) portfolio.


----------



## jargey3000

he'p me out here..... I just sold a bunch of FTS at $40 last week (see my post#271 upstream)... made about 10% but I was kicking myself a bit, because it inched up a bit more after... Wondering now if i should dip a toe back in..or just keep my profits off the table...I'd be long if I did ... Comments from the peanut gallery please.


----------



## Canadian

What were your reasons for selling? (other than taking profits). If you were hoping to get in at a lower price then this is your opportunity. You can even purchase the same number of shares and keep your profit from the sale as cash. If you have other reasons for selling it changes the situation.


----------



## jargey3000

just took profits!!


----------



## FrugalTrader

I like this deal for the long term viability of their growing dividend. I've read that this purchase will add 40% to FTS operating earnings.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I like this deal a lot. Short-term hit (debt) for long-term gain.


----------



## thepitchedlink

I like it too....I wonder what that means for tommorow morning?


----------



## londoncalling

I am not a holder but I am certainly interested


----------



## marina628

My father gave me my first FTS shares 31 years ago when I turned 18 and they were still Newfoundland Light and Power.The slips to purchase came in Newfoundland Light and Power envelope with the bill .I continue to add every few months and it is the one stock I will probably own til I die lol


----------



## doctrine

Although it dropped 10%, don't think it's "the bargain of the year", it literally traded at this price just a few weeks ago. A sketic would point out they're making a massive acquisition, and subsequent dilution, while the share price is at a record high, while the currency is at a record low and while the US currency is high. Just my two cents from the other perspective.


----------



## thepitchedlink

YA, I don't think it's a screaming buy yet...but I'm hoping today it might be...


----------



## godblsmnymkr

did anyone listen to the CC on the acquisition? ITC shareholders were getting Fortis stock, so did FTS issue equity for that then?
also notice AQN bought a different american utility company too. good timing for both companies as their stocks were historically high and usd/cad has improved a bit lately.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

Following Fortis Inc.’s (FTS-T) $6.9-billion (U.S.) deal for Michigan-based transmission company ITC Holdings Corp., BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Ben Pham said he now sees “attractive risk/reward” for the Canadian electric and gas utility company’s stock.

Mr. Pham upgraded his rating for Fortis to “outperform” from “market perform.”

“We believe the ITC acquisition is highly strategic for FTS,” he said. “Other than increased scale and geographic and regulatory diversification, the acquisition provides access to a future low-risk growing regulated earnings stream and a significant entry into electric transmission (from distribution and to a lesser extent generation). We believe this increased footprint and scale provides FTS a nice platform to source additional growth opportunities over the long term not only in its traditional hunting ground in North America, but also possibly on a global basis. It also supports the 6-per-cent dividend growth target through 2020. Pro forma, about 60 per cent of earnings will be generated in the U.S. versus 45 per cent previously.”

He added: “We believe the acquisition maps out to 1.8 times rate base and 20 times forward price to earnings. While those acquisition metrics are rich, they are consistent with recent transactions and the deal is expected to be accretive to FTS (an increase of 5 per cent in 2017). Further, the premium reflects the above-average growth prospects at ITC, the scarcity of transmission assets that come up for sale, and the strategic benefits.”

Mr. Pham said he does not expect “material” regulatory hurdles for the deal, though he noted “multiple state commission and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval does increase regulatory approval complexity and risk.”

“However, FTS has a proven U.S. acquisition track record and thus we see a late 2016 close as reasonable,” he said.

The analyst raised his target price to $44 from $43, emphasizing a potential total return of 23 per cent. The analyst average target price is $45.07.

Elsewhere, Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Kuske downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “outperform” and lowered his target to $42 from $46.

Mr. Kuske said: "Following the Fortis and ITC Holdings deal announcement, the Canadian stock sold off more than 10 per cent - which is an extreme move for a deal that received prior media speculation. In our view, the deal structure creates an uncomfortable amount of uncertainty on three major issues: (a) funding; (b) foreign exchange; and, (c) flow back risks. We view a major area of disappointment is the lack of clarity regarding the sale of up to 19.9 per cent of ITC. From our perspective, a larger component of the deal for long-dated capital would have lessened the share exchange and flowback concerns. Accordingly, with the closing timeline and these reasons, we lower our Fortis rating."

He added: "For the next 12 months or so, we view the FTS shares as being tied to the ITC deal fortunes. With our view of structural issues, we view the shares are being largely rangebound until closing


----------



## Mechanic

Jumped in on this today. It's been on my list for a while. Ex-div in a couple of days so that's like an instant discount too.


----------



## My Own Advisor

marina628 said:


> My father gave me my first FTS shares 31 years ago when I turned 18 and they were still Newfoundland Light and Power.The slips to purchase came in Newfoundland Light and Power envelope with the bill .I continue to add every few months and it is the one stock I will probably own til I die lol


That's very cool...smart father.


----------



## jargey3000

down to $35,60 today. the former AG of Louisiana has launched an "investor alert" into the validity of the ITC deal.
Time to stock up on FTS?????


----------



## jargey3000

marina628 said:


> My father gave me my first FTS shares 31 years ago when I turned 18 and they were still Newfoundland Light and Power.The slips to purchase came in Newfoundland Light and Power envelope with the bill .I continue to add every few months and it is the one stock I will probably own til I die lol


mariana - I did the same for my 2 daughters! not quite that many years ago, maybe 20?.. but we still have the Nfld L & P envelopes!
(also enrolled them in Newfoundland Telephone DRIP, which became Bell Aliant, which recently got gobbled up by BCE!)
:biggrin:


----------



## jacofan

What is the deal with FTS-H preferred? It is in the low $11's and yielding 13.5%! Is there a catch? I read that preferreds are better than commons and the FTS is a solid utility so put them both together and should one be piling money into it? Yeah it trades thin, ~5,000 shares ave daily vol but wow is this a no brainer with that yield?


----------



## humble_pie

jacofan said:


> What is the deal with FTS-H preferred? It is in the low $11's and yielding 13.5%! Is there a catch? I read that preferreds are better than commons and the FTS is a solid utility so put them both together and should one be piling money into it? Yeah it trades thin, ~5,000 shares ave daily vol but wow is this a no brainer with that yield?




it occurs to me that possibly there is a redemption date coming up soon, which could explain everything.

with a high yield on that preferred, 2 things are bound to be happening to the series H if they would be approaching a possible redemption date: 1) the price will inevitably work towards the redemption price, which is likely to be par; & 2) the market will count on the company to redeem such a high-paying issue at the earliest opportunity.


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## OurBigFatWallet

I bought more shares today, I will probably buy more if it drops below $35


----------



## godblsmnymkr

John Heinzl is the dividend investor for Globe Investor’s Strategy Lab. Follow his contributions here. You can see his model portfolio here.

Judging by the plunge in Fortis Inc.’s shares last week, you’d think the company announced lousy earnings or suffered a massive outage at one of its utilities.

Nope. What, then, was the the terrible news that sent the stock down 10 per cent last Wednesday? This is bad, really bad: Fortis announced an $11.3-billion (U.S.) acquisition that, according to analysts, is an excellent fit for the company and will accelerate its growth in the years ahead.

Huh?

Before I get into the reasons the stock fell – and why this has created a buying opportunity – I’ll quickly recap the deal and what it means to Fortis. I own Fortis’s shares personally and in my Strategy Lab model dividend portfolio and I’m not the least bit fazed by the sell-off.

On Feb. 9, Fortis announced the acquisition of Novi, Mich.-based ITC Holdings Corp., a publicly traded owner and operator of about 25,000 kilometres of regulated electricity-transmission lines in the U.S. Midwest – specifically in Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma.

The deal is being financed by about $3.5-billion in cash, $3.4-billion in Fortis shares and the assumption of $4.4-billion in debt. Fortis intends to sell a minority stake of 15 per cent to 19.9 per cent in ITC to an infrastructure investor at a later date.

You wouldn’t know it from Fortis’s sinking share price, but acquiring ITC has several advantages.

The deal expands the Canadian company’s U.S. footprint, complementing Fortis’s acquisitions of CH Energy Inc. of Poughkeepsie, N.Y., in 2013 and of UNS Energy Corp. of Tucson, Ariz., in 2014. It launches Fortis into a new business – federally regulated U.S. transmission – known for its attractive returns. And it provides a platform for growth, as new transmission infrastructure will be required to get renewable power to market from solar, wind and hydro generation projects – on top of continuing upgrades required for the existing electricity grid.

The transaction – which is expected to close by the end of 2016, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals – has a couple of other benefits as well. Fortis intends to seek a listing on the New York Stock Exchange, which will introduce its shares to a wider audience. And, perhaps best of all, the deal is expected to contribute to Fortis’s bottom line almost immediately, with an anticipated 5-per-cent boost to earnings per share in 2017.

Dividend investors, in particular, should be thrilled: Last fall, Fortis set a target of 6-per-cent annual dividend growth through 2020, and the acquisition of ITC will help the company meet – and perhaps even exceed – its target. That makes Fortis’s current yield of 4.1 per cent look even more attractive.

“This deal has it all for Fortis, and was a bull’s-eye for us when we were looking at how it fit our company,” Barry Perry, president and chief executive officer of St. John’s-based Fortis, said on a conference call with analysts.

So why did the stock plunge? Analyst Robert Kwan of RBC Dominion Securities said that an investing strategy known as merger arbitrage – in which professional traders try to profit by buying a target company’s stock while shorting the acquirer – may have been a factor.

The drop in Fortis “was less about investor concerns over the deal and more due to natural buyers of the stock (i.e., fundamental investors) taking a step back to evaluate the transaction and therefore not moving quickly to support the share price that was under pressure” from arbitrageurs, Mr. Kwan said in a note.

Potential “flow back” of Fortis’s shares may have contributed to the slide, he said. U.S.-based ITC investors who receive Fortis shares as part of the deal may not be keen to hold them after the transaction closes, which could result in a chunk of shares hitting the market at once. Some investors may be reluctant to step in until that overhang passes, he said.

To be sure, investors may also have concerns about the transformational nature of the deal – which will result in Fortis generating about 62 per cent of its regulated operating earnings from the United States, up from less than 40 per cent currently.

Investors may also be nervous about the impact on Fortis’s balance sheet. Following the announcement, Standard & Poor’s revised Fortis’s outlook to “negative” from “stable,” citing the “execution risks associated with the transaction including selling up to 19.9 per cent of ITC to one or more infrastructure-focused minority investors.”

S&P added that “the negative outlook also reflects the limited cushion in the credit metrics for any post-merger integration or operational issues.”

When asked by an analyst whether Fortis expects to keep its A-minus credit rating or anticipates that it will drop to triple-B (the lowest category of investment grade), Mr. Perry responded that “with this size of transaction, we would have been talking to the rating agencies in advance. We’ll let the rating agencies come out with their reports, but we are very positive that we will maintain a solid investment-grade credit rating.”

It’s normal for investors to feel skittish about a big takeover deal; Fortis’s stock also fell after the UNS acquisition was announced in 2013. But Fortis successfully integrated UNS, CH Energy and other acquisitions, and I expect ITC will be no different. That’s why the current slump in Fortis’s shares look so tempting for long-term investors.


----------



## mars

jacofan said:


> What is the deal with FTS-H preferred? It is in the low $11's and yielding 13.5%! Is there a catch? I read that preferreds are better than commons and the FTS is a solid utility so put them both together and should one be piling money into it? Yeah it trades thin, ~5,000 shares ave daily vol but wow is this a no brainer with that yield?


Are you sure of the 13.5% yield? The H series had a reset back in June 2015 so their new annual distribution is $0.625. Prior to the reset the rate was $1.064 so it is possible you were looking at the combined yield for 2015 which was partly the old rate and partly the new rate.


----------



## Eclectic12

godblsmnymkr said:


> John Heinzl is the dividend investor for Globe Investor’s Strategy Lab. Follow his contributions here. You can see his model portfolio here.


There is a lot of text but there does not seem to be a "model portfolio here" to see. :biggrin:

One can google it though and possibly have some quick hits.


Cheers


----------



## godblsmnymkr

trimmed some today at 52 week highs. looking for it to catch up to the rest of the high flying canadian utes.


----------



## doctrine

Actually, it hit an all-time high today plus all time closing high.  I own shares again, great way to make 10% in six weeks but it's not cheap, has to deliver on the acquisition.


----------



## ThisGuyNelson

I've toyed with the idea of multiple utilities. Fortis is one I've always looked at. I am very adverse to highly leveraged companies and that's basically how these oil companies work. I know that they have to be strong in order for the Canadian economy to be strong but I feel that at that point I'm timing the market and I know how that ends up.


----------



## Eclectic12

ThisGuyNelson said:


> I've toyed with the idea of multiple utilities. Fortis is one I've always looked at. I am very adverse to highly leveraged companies and *that's basically how these oil companies work* ...


Strange ... anytime I checked, Fortis was in the electricity generation, customer delivery and from the new purchase point of view, transmission business. If the oil company business profile is affecting your decision to buy or not buy Fortis, this makes no sense to me.

Or are you arguing that there are so many Fortis electrical customers work in the oil fields that have been laid off that the result is that they won't be able to pay Fortis for their electricity and/or natural gas?


Cheers


----------



## 1980z28

I have always own FTS sold all last year

Have started to buy over the last couple of months,now holding 5200 shares not done yet,,,trying to support home company

Also have holdings in other hydro stock ,,retirement holdings


----------



## jargey3000

nice move up lately. should one consider "cashing in" & taking a profit at this point? or stay for the long run?


----------



## gibor365

jargey3000 said:


> nice move up lately. should one consider "cashing in" & taking a profit at this point? or stay for the long run?


staying for good


----------



## My Own Advisor

Staying in for double good. The prices rise, I win; dividends and capital appreciation. The price falls, I buy more, I win; more dividends and cheaper cost basis.


----------



## birdman

The problem with selling is that you then have to find something just as good to buy. Long term hold for me.


----------



## jargey3000

holding!


----------



## dubmac

jargey3000 said:


> holding!


me too. Bought this one in 2009, and more in 2011. Held and dripped since. Up 33% on purchase price. dripping dividends. hold till retirement.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

Long term hold for me as well


----------



## humble_pie

frase has a good point about having to find a replacement stock that is equally promising. Why would anyone spend any time looking for crows when one already owns the goose that keeps laying the golden eggs?

every portfolio needs a fortis. I believe it might have been marina628 who was the fortis lighthouse on cmf forum, shining a beacon on how her father used to buy fortis shares regularly, way back when she was a child in newfoundland ... marina said something about how, back in the day, information about shares or holdings or both used to arrive in the mail along with the hydro bill ... each:

.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

humble_pie said:


> ...Why would anyone spend any time looking for crows when one already owns the goose that keeps laying the golden eggs?
> every portfolio needs a fortis...


I've heard that a goose in the hand is worth two crows in the bush.
Our goose pays us equiv $134/mo of our retirement income. But we usually buy chicken.


----------



## Costanza33

humble_pie said:


> frase has a good point about having to find a replacement stock that is equally promising. Why would anyone spend any time looking for crows when one already owns the goose that keeps laying the golden eggs?
> 
> every portfolio needs a fortis. I believe it might have been marina628 who was the fortis lighthouse on cmf forum, shining a beacon on how her father used to buy fortis shares regularly, way back when she was a child in newfoundland ... marina said something about how, back in the day, information about shares or holdings or both used to arrive in the mail along with the hydro bill ... each:
> 
> .


Well said HP


----------



## marina628

Yes that was me and thanks to my Dad I have been in this stock 30 years ,Newfoundland Light and Power days .I am hoping to pass these stocks to my own kids some day.


----------



## pastorash

Bought my first chunk awhile ago, happy to keep it long term


----------



## jargey3000

52-week high today. i think. what's bumping it along just now?


----------



## jargey3000

itchy finger here now...to sell all at a very nice profit.
then buy back in again at the inevitable drop at the first whiff of news of interest rate hikes again.
what to do? what to do?


----------



## Eder

There is news of interest rate hikes now.


----------



## Pluto

I do see your point, with its sudden spike up. It looks over bought. 

Part of your answer is going to be taxes. If you don't have any tax losses to apply to any gain, maybe you should leave it alone, collect the dividend, and let it grow. Because after taxes, then trying to buy it back low enough to compensate for the taxes, and maybe a missed dividend, you could end up with not much except a lot of drama and trouble. It is not really a volitile stock, which one would want for trading. there are lots of long term holders in this one who are happy to just hold it.


----------



## jargey3000

...hmmmmm.... good points pluto


----------



## doctrine

FTS is now over 60% in the US, including owning the largest privately held distribution company in the US, that is nearly the size of Hydro One. The value is fairly reflected in currency alone. But I probably wouldn't add here


----------



## jargey3000

Good ol' Fortis dropping like rock lately...sits at $43.52 today, as i type. Down from it's recent highs north of $48.
How come? Int. rates scare? Buying opp. -or what?


----------



## like_to_retire

jargey3000 said:


> Good ol' Fortis dropping like rock lately...sits at $43.52 today, as i type. Down from it's recent highs north of $48.
> How come? Int. rates scare? Buying opp. -or what?


Typical response to rising interest rates. Utilities and Telecoms will suffer. FTS, CU, EMA, BCE, T all down on the year. Financials will benefit.

ltr


----------



## 30seconds

I was looking at adding. Going to wait till I see an up trend again.

If rising interest rates keep these down then wont they be suppressed for years to come? I personally do not think so.


----------



## AltaRed

30seconds said:


> If rising interest rates keep these down then wont they be suppressed for years to come? I personally do not think so.


Regulated utilities eventually get to recover most of their higher debt servicing costs in their rates, but there is a lag until utilities can file applications to the applicable PUC and get a hearing and a result. This lag serves as a drag until interest rates stop rising and stay steady state.

Added: It is now 10% below its 52 week high of $48.73 which suggests an opportunity, but still above its 52 week low of $40.72. Could it fall below that value? Maybe.


----------



## gibor365

May add FTS when yield > 4%


----------



## AltaRed

gibor365 said:


> May add FTS when yield > 4%


At or below $42.50 then....


----------



## My Own Advisor

Own a few hundred shares DRIPping so all good....the lower the better as long as they pay their dividend and increase it later this year


----------



## milhouse

+1 that the Utilities and Telecoms have taken a hit recently. I'm feeling that.  
I've got a chunk of FTS already but would consider adding. However, any thoughts on the adding CU instead of FTS just for the sake of a bit of diversifying the utilities component of my portfolio?


----------



## jargey3000

My Own Advisor said:


> Own a few hundred shares DRIPping so all good....the lower the better as long as they pay their dividend and increase it later this year


...another way to look at it, I guess...


----------



## birdman

I am quite heavily invested in utilities with FTS being on of my larger holdings. With the expectation of increasing rates most of these stocks have been falling over the past month or so and I too have trouble understanding why. As mentioned above by AltaRed they may well recover increased costs by rate increases down the road but also, in reviewing their financial statements most of their debt is fixed rate longer term with some going out to 2041. This should help offset and short term rate increases and my guess a rate hike in this and other utilities and telcos will have minimal effect on profits. Thoughts?


----------



## AltaRed

milhouse said:


> +1 that the Utilities and Telecoms have taken a hit recently. I'm feeling that.
> I've got a chunk of FTS already but would consider adding. However, any thoughts on the adding CU instead of FTS just for the sake of a bit of diversifying the utilities component of my portfolio?


Depends on how and where you are diversified now in the various sectors, and how many stocks you own. CU is now about 15% off its 52 week high and virtually near its 52 week low. It's 5 year chart is not pretty, due primarily due to its Alberta electrical component where reductions in electrical use and prices since the oil debacle began in mid-2014 has been a drag. But it is quite a bit more of a company than its Alberta electrical component and so.... is it a value stock at these levels? Maybe although its metrics such as P/E and P/B are not that cheap.

Disclosure: I continue to own CU,and have for a number of years.


----------



## milhouse

Thanks for the comment AR.


----------



## AltaRed

milhouse said:


> Thanks for the comment AR.


I might add that you look at a few of the CU news releases in Nov-Dec 2017. They've sold their interest in ATCO structures to the parent company and used cash to buy a hydro plant in Mexico. They also continue to grow their rate base so the fundamentals are there I think... Of course, as a shareholder, I may have bias.


----------



## Eder

milhouse said:


> +1 that the Utilities and Telecoms have taken a hit recently. I'm feeling that.
> I've got a chunk of FTS already but would consider adding. However, any thoughts on the adding CU instead of FTS just for the sake of a bit of diversifying the utilities component of my portfolio?


I'd graph CU & FTS growth together over 20 years before making your choice.


----------



## AltaRed

Based on share price only, from TMX Money

FTS has grown 310% in 20 years, CU 240%
FTS has grown 51% in 10 years, CU 52%
FTS has grown 27% in 5 years, CU -1%

Draw what you wish from it. CU has diverged from FTS since mid-2015 but stands up well over 10, even 20 years despite the past 5 years. What does that mean going forward? Is it catch up time? Or will it continue to lag for a few years yet?


----------



## Eder

Hmm I back tested a 10k investment from 2001...FTS turned into $94k, CU only $50k. as it seems data for CU only starts in Sept, 2000. I own both.


----------



## like_to_retire

AltaRed said:


> Based on share price only, from TMX Money
> 
> FTS has grown 310% in 20 years, CU 240%
> FTS has grown 51% in 10 years, CU 52%
> FTS has grown 27% in 5 years, CU -1%
> 
> Draw what you wish from it. CU has diverged from FTS since mid-2015 but stands up well over 10, even 20 years despite the past 5 years. What does that mean going forward? Is it catch up time? Or will it continue to lag for a few years yet?


It's interesting to look at the utilities for 5/10/20 years. 

I have always owned all three of FTS/CU/EMA because they represent the Canadian utilities sector rather well, in my opinion.

In the three graphs I added a comparison of CU and EMA to FTS for 5/10/20 years, and I have highlighted CU. FTS is the 20 year winner for sure.









View attachment 17594


View attachment 17602


ltr


----------



## AltaRed

The charts are interesting for sure. All the charts show CU has underperformed since early 2015. No surprise as to why. They are all somewhat different in constituent parts, i.e. domestic vs International, geographic presence, and nat gas vs electricity component. All 3 are going International with CU the least diversified internationally so far.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

I'd suggest comparing total return, since dividends are a substantial part of the return and the reason that many of us own these stocks.
CU 5yr 15.8%, 10yr 108.5%
EMA 5yr 59.5%, 10yr 220.4%
FTS 5yr 53.0%, 10yr 120.0%


----------



## AltaRed

That is indeed a better way to look at them. It's a matter of finding the right data sources.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Not easy, I see different numbers at Morningstar, Globe, TMXMoney. The above are from TMXMoney charting with "splits & dividends". 









I can't recall if TMXMoney provides total return (price + dividends) or total with reinvested dividends. 
When I calc total return, i.e. take FTS closing price today, 5yrs, and 10yrs ago, and add the intervening divs, I get 5yr 53.9% and 10yr 99.9% vs the 53.0% and 120.0% reported by TMXMoney.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Also DRIPing a few hundred shares of CU. Oh yeah; 10% raise by CU recently


----------



## My Own Advisor

Own them all for those reasons. Add in AQN and some BEP and that's some good payers.


----------



## ontario99

Does anyone know why FTS has been going down and down? Any special reason that you're aware of?


----------



## like_to_retire

ontario99 said:


> Does anyone know why FTS has been going down and down? Any special reason that you're aware of?


Yes, utilities are sensitive to changes in interest rates because they generally carry large amounts of debt.

ltr


----------



## robfordlives

like_to_retire said:


> Yes, utilities are sensitive to changes in interest rates because they generally carry large amounts of debt.
> 
> ltr


Yep. When do we see a bottom? Rates will not head into a lowering phase for many years/decades again so will utilities be dead money for decades?


----------



## like_to_retire

robfordlives said:


> Yep. When do we see a bottom? Rates will not head into a lowering phase for many years/decades again so will utilities be dead money for decades?


It's hard for a regulated utility to boost its return without expanding, and that requires more borrowing, so it could be some time. I don't expect too much growth in utility stocks at least until interest rates stop rising. There's also the movement from stocks that pay dividends over to bonds and other fixed income when rates rise from those that moved away from fixed income when the return got so low, so it's a tough grind for a utility.

ltr


----------



## doctrine

Their business is fine, corporate interest rates, especially long term ones that utilities depend on, haven't moved. The stock can depreciate if the risk free rate rises, which it has somewhat. I have FTS, and they have a lot of growth in their US business. They own the largest independent electricity transmission company in the US, ITC, and they have an excellent regulated rate of return. It usually trades in a pretty narrow band and its definitely moved onto the buy list.


----------



## My Own Advisor

This is buy and hold and don't worry about the price kinda stock. Just my $0.02. Unless they stop a) paying a dividend and/or b) stop raising their dividend I won't sell. 

Cash flow cow.


----------



## james4beach

I bought more FTS on today's weakness, though it's mostly just to reinvest the dividends and get up to a board lot. I like the idea of manually reinvesting dividends so that I can take advantage of beneficial pricing, and this looks like a pretty good point to buy

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23760577647


----------



## Eclectic12

Does FTS pay their dividends in USD like EMA does?


Cheers


----------



## Dilbert

Eclectic12 said:


> Does FTS pay their dividends in USD like EMA does?
> 
> 
> Cheers


No.


----------



## like_to_retire

Eclectic12 said:


> Does FTS pay their dividends in USD like EMA does?
> 
> 
> Cheers


FTS and EMA both pay their dividends in Canadian dollars.

ltr


----------



## Eder

Pays in CAN. Looks like a decent entry point...as usual the herd is over reacting to interest rate increase, momentum normally overshoots and we might get FTS under $40.


----------



## james4beach

Eclectic12 said:


> Does FTS pay their dividends in USD like EMA does?


To the best of my knowledge, no - FTS pays dividends in CAD.


----------



## james4beach

Eder said:


> Pays in CAN. Looks like a decent entry point...as usual the herd is over reacting to interest rate increase, momentum normally overshoots and we might get FTS under $40.


It's crazy how these things overreact to interest rates. Since December 1, FTS is down -9.4% and BCE is down -5.4% (those are total returns). And yet bonds lost very little: XBB is down -1.2% and even long dated bonds down -1.6% since Dec 1.

I have pretty big positions in BCE & FTS so this hurts...

The big dividend stocks are responding like ultra-volatile bonds. Now that I type that out, I'm not sure I like the sound of that.


----------



## Eclectic12

like_to_retire said:


> FTS and EMA both pay their dividends in Canadian dollars ...


So far, EMA dividends are consistently being paid in USD to my account.


Cheers


----------



## My Own Advisor

No hurting James. You and other young pups like me should cheer for lower prices!!!


----------



## My Own Advisor

Eclectic12 said:


> So far, EMA dividends are consistently being paid in USD to my account.
> 
> 
> Cheers


?

http://investors.emera.com/GenPage.aspx?IID=4072693&GKP=205189

Are you confusing EMA payments with AQN payments?

http://investors.algonquinpower.com/divs.aspx?iid=4142273


----------



## humble_pie

Eclectic12 said:


> So far, EMA dividends are consistently being paid in USD to my account.




like to retire is correct, though, when he says that EMA dividends are paid only in CAD.

very recently, i was double-checking EMA dividends because i'm preparing a brand-new fresh-as-spring updated list of all canadian companies that pay USD dividends. And this is at least the 2nd time eclectic has told us that EMA pays USD dividends .each:

i reached a very charming lady who does investor services at emera. It's that fabled bluenose charm, somehow all the maritimers seem to have it, she certainly does.

bluenose explained that EMA does not pay any USD dividends, not on the common, not on the preferreds with one extremely rare exception, which is a small new england hydro company that emera bought years ago & continues to honour its US preferred shares, all of whose owners reside in the US.

this must mean that emera does not have very many US resident shareholders, then, i ventured. 

not at present, but this situation may change since Emera recently bought that big tampa florida utility, said she.

in fact, so lightly is emera held stateside at the present time that the company does not even bother to maintain a US exchange listing, although americans & other non-canadians can trade emera in US pink sheets if they insist.


(aside to eclectic) perhaps you'd like to have a look/see at why your broker is paying your dividends in USD. Are you perchance holding these shares in a USD account? generally speaking, this would not be a good idea ...


.


----------



## Dilbert

james4beach said:


> I have pretty big positions in BCE & FTS so this hurts...
> 
> .


Me too, relatively speaking. :confusion:


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> I have pretty big positions in BCE & FTS so this hurts...
> 
> The big dividend stocks are responding like ultra-volatile bonds. Now that I type that out, I'm not sure I like the sound of that



it's time to sell those not-too-far-OTM calls .each:


----------



## gibor365

Sometimes some websites giving wrong info, recently was checking yield of VSC on TDDI , and in summary section they write that VSC Dividend per Share 0.67 USD.... :shame:


----------



## Eder

The thing is 5-10% corrections are standard among all exchanges and are a healthy requirement to extend our 2 year old TSX bull market. Once you see hboy on here backing up the truck you will know you waited too long to add to your position.


----------



## robfordlives

It's funny that the orphans and widows stocks seem to have the biggest moves down on a red day and do nothing on up days. Defensive my a$$


----------



## gibor365

> It's crazy how these things overreact to interest rates.


 imho, those rising interest rates in Canada won't live for too long ... first of all there wasn't any reason to raise interest rates, esp. when nobody knows what is going to be with NAFTA.... I think in 2-3 years, interest rates won't be higher than now


----------



## gibor365

Eder said:


> The thing is 5-10% corrections are standard among all exchanges and are a healthy requirement to extend our 2 year old TSX bull market. Once you see hboy on here backing up the truck you will know you waited too long to add to your position.


Depends on US market, if SPY stays flat, we can see 5-10% corrections on TSX. If SPY see 5-10% correction, TSX going to bear market


----------



## Eclectic12

My Own Advisor said:


> ... Are you confusing EMA payments with AQN payments?
> http://investors.algonquinpower.com/divs.aspx?iid=4142273


Mea culpa ... time get get new glasses I guess. :rolleyes2:


Cheers


----------



## Pluto

I keep having this nagging idea in my head about electric cars. It seems more and more likely that the transition to electric could speed up. If so, the demand for electric power will steadily, and significantly rise. I'll be adding more to FTS, EMA and the like from time to time. 

Reportedly the average neighbourhood can't handle many EV's charging up every night, so infrastructure would have to be beefed up as well.


----------



## jargey3000

..."electric cars"...what a crazy idea...


----------



## agent99

Owners may have to buy a diesel generator to charge their electric cars


----------



## My Own Advisor

@Eclectic lol


----------



## My Own Advisor

As far as I know...the demand for electrcity is not going down. When FTS and EMA and U.S. stocks like DUK, SO, ED are down in price....I'm buying.


----------



## Gumball

My Own Advisor said:


> As far as I know...the demand for electrcity is not going down. When FTS and EMA and U.S. stocks like DUK, SO, ED are down in price....I'm buying.


Just curious at what price do you think FTS would be a buy? im guessing with rates rising this stock may be affected...


----------



## Calmoney

Bought a bunch Monday @42.68. Added to my already decent position. I have had FTS for many years and have enjoyed the growing dividend. The streak is 44 years strong.


----------



## gibor365

Gumball said:


> Just curious at what price do you think FTS would be a buy? im guessing with rates rising this stock may be affected...


imho, when yield will be more than 4% , so $42.5


----------



## agent99

Against my better judgement, I bought 100 FTS shares yesterday for my wife's TFSA. Also bought quite a bit more of CU which is, I believe, more diversified. Otherwise bought fixed income yielding over 4% and relatively short maturity.


----------



## gibor365

I bought EMA to my wife Tfsa couple of weeks ago


> Otherwise bought fixed income yielding over 4% and relatively short maturity.


 Curious what is it?


----------



## Gumball

gibor365 said:


> imho, when yield will be more than 4% , so $42.5



thanks Gibor, im looking to start a position in FTS that's why I was asking


----------



## jargey3000

in creaky, geezer voice: "_Ehhhh...sure I bought it when it was still Nfld Light & Power Co.!! Hasn't let me down yet!!"_


----------



## SixesAndSevens

Does anybody know if this same Fortis (FTS) is in the pipeline business in the north sea?
there was a Fortis pipeline leak in the north sea a couple of months ago.
has since been fixed, but is it the same Fortis or is that different?


----------



## Eclectic12

Their main business is as a utility company with mentions of operations in five Canadian provinces, nine US states and three Caribbean countries ... so I doubt it.

Here is their web page so you can dig further ... https://www.fortisinc.com/


Cheers


----------



## jargey3000

SixesAndSevens said:


> Does anybody know if this same Fortis (FTS) is in the pipeline business in the north sea?
> there was a Fortis pipeline leak in the north sea a couple of months ago.
> has since been fixed, but is it the same Fortis or is that different?


no. not the same outfit. good question though


----------



## jargey3000

wow. FTS currently on sale at $39.80 today. how low will it go?
(wonder if I should add to my holding now????)


----------



## gibor365

jargey3000 said:


> wow. FTS currently on sale at $39.80 today. how low will it go?
> (wonder if I should add to my holding now????)


Note that today is ex div day for FTS


----------



## My Own Advisor

Lower is better. Will be able to DRIP more shares next quarter. If I could pull together some cash, I would buy some shares. I'll see what I can do!


----------



## jargey3000

gibor365 said:


> Note that today is ex div day for FTS


duly noted gibby, ...but, still...?


----------



## gibor365

jargey3000 said:


> duly noted gibby, ...but, still...?


agreed  ... maybe I'll wait to 4.5% yield to buy more


----------



## jargey3000

If only it wasn't a Newfoundland -based company......


----------



## gibor365

jargey3000 said:


> If only it wasn't a Newfoundland -based company......


but their major operations in rest of Canada and US, no?


----------



## jargey3000

Oh, true....but...after living here for nigh on 70 years, I've seen most NL things turn to s**t eventually.....
On the other hand, I've wondered if they'll surprise us & ever merge or get taken out buy some other utility monolith or whatever...
But, on the whole Fortis has been "bery bery good to me!"


----------



## gibor365

> I've seen most NL things turn to s**t eventually.....


 you thing Ontario with our Liberals is better?!


----------



## jargey3000

gibor365 said:


> you thing Ontario with our Liberals is better?!


liberals...pcs...makes no diff....


----------



## Beaver101

jargey3000 said:


> If only it wasn't a Newfoundland -based company......


 ... and no all-in? Geesh, and you're worrying about our national anthem.


----------



## jargey3000

in Cod we trust.
(i'm almost all-in on FTS as it is!  )

what's the word on the street on their report today???


----------



## Beaver101

jargey3000 said:


> in Cod we trust.
> (i'm almost all-in on FTS as it is!  )
> *
> what's the word on the street on their report today???*


 ... well, I'm shocked and in Cod you trust on this NFLD-based company?


----------



## jargey3000

jargey3000 said:


> wow. FTS currently on sale at $39.80 today. how low will it go?
> (wonder if I should add to my holding now????)


Just checked friday's close...
_DOH! DOH! DOH!_


----------



## doctrine

FTS had very solid results, 10% year over year adjusted earnings growth. At $40, that puts Fortis at a trailing P/E of 15.8 with EPS growth of 5-10%. A very, very good price for such high quality (regulated and long term) revenue and earnings.


----------



## doctrine

FTS holding up very well on a big down day. I guess defensives still have a role to play. People will still need power. Some evidence that power efficiency gains in North America are decreasing. And, electric car sales are up 20% year over year. 

A bit of a panic a few months back when it dipped below $40, that is well behind now.


----------



## Synergy

They should do ok if the tariff tantrum continues. At least in the near term. I'm still not overly optimistic on the sector in general.


----------



## doctrine

Fortis closed at an all time high and had an intra-day high too. Canadian interest rates are very low and due to the stuttering economy and poor business environment, utilities are looking quite good. The index isn't quite at an all-time high, there are a few still-beaten up utilities, mostly from Alberta and one from Ontario. But these utilities are doing their job. They are going to make buckets of money in this low interest rate environment. But quality is leading the way here - Fortis is the first to reach new highs.


----------



## 1980z28

Sold some shares of fts
sold some shares of ema
sold some shares of aqn
sitting on some cash from sale yesterday,,,i was away when it sold kind of forgot my sell price
still holding some,but nice to have some cash will buy some banks at around 10 X it`s a good price for me


----------



## AltaRed

doctrine said:


> Fortis closed at an all time high and had an intra-day high too. Canadian interest rates are very low and due to the stuttering economy and poor business environment, utilities are looking quite good. The index isn't quite at an all-time high, there are a few still-beaten up utilities, mostly from Alberta and one from Ontario. But these utilities are doing their job. They are going to make buckets of money in this low interest rate environment. But quality is leading the way here - Fortis is the first to reach new highs.


It gets more complex the more assets, operations and debt that companies like FTS have ex-Canada. IOW, not as simple any more to make broad conclusions.


----------



## jargey3000

help me here......ive owned fts since forever!
actually since BEFORE it was fts! it was Nfld Power back then!
logic tells me i should consider taking profits at "all-time highs", no?
or should i let greed rule, and hang on?


----------



## Eder

Best to just sell some. I was in the same quandary with my ENB today so sold 25%. I feel like a genius. (I am still way over allocation because ENB was being given away a short time ago)


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

I'd decide within the context of your plan (e.g. cash needs, asset allocation).


----------



## AltaRed

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> I'd decide within the context of your plan (e.g. cash needs, asset allocation).


As would I. By asset allocation, I assume you are also including how far out of whack a single holding has gotten in one's portfolio. There are different opinions on letting a holding 'run' but that also increases exposure in event of an unforeseen cataclysmic event with that holding. A number of my holdings are 'outsized' but not by a factor of two for example.

Stick to your IPS (investing plan).


----------



## jargey3000

AltaRed said:


> As would I.
> 
> Stick to your IPS (investing plan).


AIIHO! .....lol........


----------



## Video_Frank

jargey3000 said:


> AIIHO! .....lol........


Word.


----------



## jargey3000

*Fortis (FTS)*

for anyone who, like moi, has held shares Fortis for, like, forever....would you consider selling any at current (high) levels? or do you see it drifting higher....?
(up another .15 today, as I type, to $52.70)


----------



## AltaRed

jargey3000 said:


> for anyone who, like moi, has held shares Fortis for, like, forever....would you consider selling any at current (high) levels? or do you see it drifting higher....?
> (up another .15 today, as I type, to $52.70)


All utilities are at significant highs right now due to: 1) investors looking for places to hide from the next market downturn, plus 2) more belief in low interest rates being the new normal. My view is they are a 'hold' and I wouldn't be trimming unless they were obscenely out sized holdings in one's portfolio. As good as, or better than, our banks in my opinion. Of course, any one of them could stumble with a stupid major investment/acquisition, but that is a human failing that cannot be foreseen in advance.


----------



## like_to_retire

jargey3000 said:


> for anyone who, like moi, has held shares Fortis for, like, forever....would you consider selling any at current (high) levels? or do you see it drifting higher....?
> (up another .15 today, as I type, to $52.70)


Crazy talk. Stop that.

ltr


----------



## doctrine

FTS is trading in line with its historic averages. Which is still slightly expensive. But it rarely goes on a significant discount. And given where interest rates are currently and likely headed, it is fair value.


----------



## Dilbert

My most boring holding and I love it!:love_heart:


----------



## jargey3000

....jeez $54.17 as I type...well into record-high territory I think .. my biggest holding.....Ive held it forever...when should one 'take a profit'...?


----------



## Beaver101

^ Only you would know here ... to greed or not to greed? Seriously, do you need the money? If so, sell then.


----------



## dubmac

I bought some in 2009, and left them alone to DRIP.
FTS has been a solid performer. Buy it, and forget it. My kind of dividend stock. No fuss, no muss. I'll sell it when I need to convert my RRSP to a RRIF in 14 years.


----------



## like_to_retire

jargey3000 said:


> ....jeez $54.17 as I type...well into record-high territory I think .. my biggest holding.....Ive held it forever...when should one 'take a profit'...?


And then what? Do you feel it will magically drop its price and then you buy back in like it was a trader stock? This is a buy and hold. Knock the side of your head right now and avert your attention elsewhere.

ltr


----------



## RBull

like_to_retire said:


> And then what? Do you feel it will magically drop its price and then you buy back in like it was a trader stock? This is a buy and hold. Knock the side of your head right now and avert your attention elsewhere.
> 
> ltr


Agree. I'm retired and have it on drip. If you plan to sell capital to finance retirement this may be one of the last to consider. Jargey, you've gone well with it. That's reason to keep, not sell. Nothings changed.


----------



## AltaRed

RBull said:


> Agree. I'm retired and have it on drip. If you plan to sell capital to finance retirement this may be one of the last to consider. Jargey, you've gone well with it. That's reason to keep, not sell. Nothings changed.


Sector rotation folk would suggest a rotation out of 'over valued' utilities now into an undervalued sector, but that is simply an attempt to 'beat' the market and we know how that usually ends for most people, i.e. buy high and sell low. I agree that while the utility sector is probably over-valued right now, it is because of the flight to safety. Whether FTS eventually consolidates lower, and/or side winds, for 5+ years after sector rotation out of defensive stocks is not terribly relevant. Retirees are theoretically in for the long haul. Even supposed growth stocks like ATD.B have years of consolidation after a major acquisition and then they take off again. Just look at 5 , 10 or 20 year charts for well run businesses like FTS and ATD.B (I own both). I have no plans to do anything with either of those 2 stocks.


----------



## RBull

AltaRed said:


> Sector rotation folk would suggest a rotation out of 'over valued' utilities now into an undervalued sector, but that is simply an attempt to 'beat' the market and we know how that usually ends for most people, i.e. buy high and sell low. I agree that while the utility sector is probably over-valued right now, it is because of the flight to safety. Whether FTS eventually consolidates lower, and/or side winds, for 5+ years after sector rotation out of defensive stocks is not terribly relevant. Retirees are theoretically in for the long haul. Even supposed growth stocks like ATD.B have years of consolidation after a major acquisition and then they take off again. Just look at 5 , 10 or 20 year charts for well run businesses like FTS and ATD.B (I own both). I have no plans to do anything with either of those 2 stocks.


Good points I agree with. I know Jargey is retired, but has made numerous posts looking for the latest and greatest but have a feeling that's just banter. Correct me if I'm wrong Jargey.


----------



## Dilbert

Yes, I’m the sort who really doesn’t care about share value (although it is nice to see a portfolio grow!). Keep the divvy generators!:love_heart:


----------



## AltaRed

Dilbert said:


> Yes, I’m the sort who really doesn’t care about share value (although it is nice to see a portfolio grow!). Keep the divvy generators!:love_heart:


I dunno. Would you care if the stock price dropped in half? Would that not possibly signal a dividend cut in the future? Do you think it would have been joyful to own PWF in recent years (steady to slightly increasing dividend) but a stalled/declining stock price that suggests a company that may be aimlessly going nowhere? 

Do you not think your comment is somewhat over-the-top of actual 'real interest' in stock price movement? and maybe actually more of a dividend one liner?


----------



## doctrine

FTS is a bright spot in an industry with big tailwinds, including increasing investment in electrical infrastructure and very low interest rates. And they own the largest independent electricity distributor in the United States (ITC). These assets don't get re-created even in a couple of decades. That being said, I would probably not add here, but inevitably there will be a pullback. Utilities tend to do very well in the summertime as it is.


----------



## peterk

Sold mine at $45 for a profit. Oops.

Kept all my CU though... :stupid:


----------



## dubmac

doctrine said:


> FTS is a bright spot in an industry with big tailwinds..


Emera (EMA) is similar to FTS. EMA up 28% YTD. FTS up 21% YTD.
Interestingly ZUT, (Equal weighted utilities) up 14.8% YTD. - not as much, maybe too much dilution.


----------



## Dilbert

AltaRed said:


> I dunno. Would you care if the stock price dropped in half? Would that not possibly signal a dividend cut in the future? Do you think it would have been joyful to own PWF in recent years (steady to slightly increasing dividend) but a stalled/declining stock price that suggests a company that may be aimlessly going nowhere?
> 
> Do you not think your comment is somewhat over-the-top of actual 'real interest' in stock price movement? and maybe actually more of a dividend one liner?


Yes. I must have been in a flippant mood, my bad!


----------



## jargey3000

RBull said:


> Good points I agree with. I know Jargey is retired, but has made numerous posts looking for the latest and greatest but have a feeling that's just banter. Correct me if I'm wrong Jargey.



ban·ter
/ˈban(t)ər/
noun
1.
the playful and friendly exchange of teasing remarks.
"there was much singing and good-natured banter"
synonyms:	repartee, raillery, ripostes, sallies, swordplay, quips

:smiley_simmons::smiley_simmons::smiley_simmons:
🤡🤡🤡


----------



## jargey3000

....ah'm a go hang on to FTS fo' a li'l longer ah think....


----------



## humble_pie

IIRC this forum was turned onto fortis by marina628 soon after she arrived here

marina said her father had begun buying Fortis way back when it was Newfoundland Power, i believe she said newfoundlanders could actually buy the stock using little purchase coupons that came attached to their hydro bills. No commission either. Ah the GODs.

AFAIK her father never sold. Imagine the fine state of affairs today.


----------



## Retired Peasant

dubmac said:


> I'll sell it when I need to convert my RRSP to a RRIF in 14 years.


Why would that be your reason to sell it?


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## dubmac

Retired Peasant said:


> Why would that be your reason to sell it?


Though I could be mistaken, I thought that when age 71 is reached that an RRSP MUST be converted to a RRIF. Wouldn't converting a RRSP to a RRIF require one to sell all the stocks/funds etc and move the cash into a new account?


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## kcowan

humble_pie said:


> IIRC this forum was turned onto fortis by marina628 soon after she arrived here
> 
> marina said her father had begun buying Fortis way back when it was Newfoundland Power, i believe she said newfoundlanders could actually buy the stock using little purchase coupons that came attached to their hydro bills. No commission either. Ah the GODs.
> 
> AFAIK her father never sold. Imagine the fine state of affairs today.


Of course, there is also the memories of BCs Brick shares too!


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## AltaRed

dubmac said:


> Though I could be mistaken, I thought that when age 71 is reached that an RRSP MUST be converted to a RRIF. Wouldn't converting a RRSP to a RRIF require one to sell all the stocks/funds etc and move the cash into a new account?


Not at all. It is simply a 'conversion' of one's existing RRSP to a RRIF. In at least some discount brokerages, they don't even change account number. For my spouse in RBC Direct Investing, in month A, the headline description on the Summary page link said RRSP, and in month A+1, the headline description said RRIF.


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## james4beach

Is it just my imagination, or does FTS move a _lot_ like bonds? Here's a 2 year chart of FTS & XBB. The y-axis scales are different, but I'm trying to illustate the correlation in movements:









FTS has been selling off recently along with bonds in general.


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## AltaRed

Capital intensive companies correlate with bond prices, i.e. as interest rates (yield) rises, bond prices and utilities and pipelines and such drop. The greater the debt ratio, generally the higher the correlation. There are other factors of course, such as debt servicing costs vs margin.


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## Eclectic12

dubmac said:


> Though I could be mistaken, I thought that when age 71 is reached that an RRSP MUST be converted to a RRIF. Wouldn't converting a RRSP to a RRIF require one to sell all the stocks/funds etc and move the cash into a new account?


Not sure where the idea that investments need to be sold when an RRSP is partially or completely converted to a RRIF came from.



> When the time comes to convert your RRSP to a RRIF, *it is not necessary to sell the investments in the RRSP - the investments can just be rolled over to a RRIF (transferred "in kind")*. If you are doing this prior to age 71, a partial rollover can be done.


https://www.taxtips.ca/rrsp/convertrrsptorrif.htm



Even when making withdrawals from the RRIF, if one likes the investment - in-kind withdrawals are also available.
https://www.taxtips.ca/rrsp/inkindwithdrawals.htm


Cheers


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## AltaRed

Eclectic12 said:


> Not sure where the idea that investments need to be sold when an RRSP is partially or completely converted to a RRIF came from.


Also, in at least some brokerages, in a complete conversion, the account number does not even change. Only the name (as it did for my spouse at RBC DI). I suspect the same for me in 2020. Obviously a different situation if an annuity is bought with some/all of the RRSP proceeds.


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## Eclectic12

Makes sense that only the name would need to change for a complete conversion. Some paperwork to let the gov't know it's a RRIF where withdrawals have to start and it's good to go.

It's probably how my LIRA will work when converted to a LIF but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. :biggrin:



Cheers


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## james4beach

Is anyone adding to their FTS lately, with the price (relatively) weak vs the broad market? I bought some in the summer and the price is hovering around the same level now.


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## jargey3000

^^^ good question james. I'm pondering it....
(I've only held Fortis since they changed the name from Nfld. Light&Power...lol)


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## agent99

jargey3000 said:


> ^^^ good question james. I'm pondering it....
> (I've only held Fortis since they changed the name from Nfld. Light&Power...lol)


I own FTS as well as other utilities like EMA, CU, AQN. With expected growth in economy and higher interest rates as we come out of the pandemic, I don't expect growth in value of these utilities going forward. But they will still churn out their dividends which are substantial for those of us who bought some time ago. However, buying now for a 3.85% yield on a stock that might flatline for years doesn't look too attractive to me. 

I just sold Premium Brands conv debenture for about $25k so have money burning hole in pocket! Thinking of something that will benefit from growth in economy, rather than a steady eddy utility.


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## dubmac

agent99 said:


> I don't expect growth in value of these utilities going forward. But they will still churn out their dividends which are substantial for those of us who bought some time ago.


I bought it on the dip for the yield - not growth. I'm OK with no/limited growth. My view is that this one will kick out 4% (pundits say they'll increase the dividend by around 6%/yr), and add tax-efficient income. I don't expect any fireworks from FTS. gimme the yield, some dividend growth. I'm good.


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## Eder

Fortis has doubled its dividend since I bought in 2010 , add about 100% capital gain on top of that in the same period ....a great way to stay ahead of inflation and get US exposure thrown in. Set it forget it.

I like to buy it on their regular pull backs as well...recently back to $50 was such an event.


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