# Garth Turner - The Greatest Fool



## GOB (Feb 15, 2011)

This guy is a real piece of work. A good writer, and probably correct about the end result of the RE market, but arrogant beyond belief and gets almost everything wrong along the way. I posted a comment respectfully pointing some of this out, and of course he censored it. 

On July 31st, 2011:
"I sure hope nobody reading this pathetic, disposable blog shorted the market for Monday morning, or loaded up on bullion at a Scotiabank branch Friday. If you did, bend over. Like I said, never bet against America."

Aug 1: S&P 500: 1300, Gold: $1620
Since: S&P 500: low of 1101, Gold: high of ~$1800

A few days after, he makes a post saying he won't tolerate any gold pumping on his blog...I wonder if he would have done that if equities popped and gold tanked? I haven't been reading too long but apparently he has been calling for people to sell their gold over since ~$1000/oz, completely ignorant of the fundamentals and the long term trend. 

Over the past few months, he has been hyping the rise of interest rates, calling it inevitable and how that will crush the RE markets. Now, after the Fed announcements, he pretends he never said that and has changed his view to "interest rates don't need to rise"

Some quotes regarding rates:

"Those rates will be rising. They will rise substantially. I think over the course of the next two years, there is nowhere for interest rates to go but up, unless we have another recurrence of an economic crisis, in which case rates will stay lower."

"There will be no crisis"

And finally, his famous diversified portfolio which has yielded an incredible 15% or so over the last couple of years when the market has gone up 100% since the bottom. 

Garth acts like he can predict the future and shoots down anyone who has a different opinion. Funnily, it's the people he ridicules the most who have turned out to be right. The beauty of an arrogant man who likes the sound of his own voice is that it's so easy to catch him on his screw-ups.

Read his blog for entertainment, but do not listen to this man for anything not related to housing. He is completely clueless about the economy.


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## MoneyMaker (Jun 1, 2009)

You seem to have a man-crush on him.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Garth is an entertaining character but I wouldn't turn to his blog for investment wisdom.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

I'm pretty sure the main purpose of his blog is to get customers for his financial advisory services.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Four Pillars said:


> I'm pretty sure the main purpose of his blog is to get customers for his financial advisory services.


If he did manage to get any customers, I can see a law suit coming in the near future.
Pretty much all of his investment advice has been remarkably terrible.
And he has managed to pick to worst possible timing for his advice.
Like the advice to dump all stocks in March 2009, and many more.

He's the kind of fella that perpetually screams wolf.
Eventually, sooner or later, the wolf will answer his call.


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## GOB (Feb 15, 2011)

MoneyMaker said:


> You seem to have a man-crush on him.


Not at all. Just trying to get the word out there. He says things so assuredly that lesser experienced people might follow his advice. His timing is so bad that whenever he says something it's almost a signal to do the opposite and profit. 

He claims to allow free speech and does indeed let a lot of crap get through in the comments but anything that calls his past words into question that he doesn't have a witty answer to is censored.


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## drvrage (Aug 12, 2011)

For the record I'm no fan of his, but he has a lot of important things to say about how precarious our prosperity is. There are some fundamental imbalances in our economy. I have no real doubts that we are looking at some bad times coming. Bad like how? Bad like south sea bubble, bad like pre-french revolution, bad like great depression. My best and most hopeful outlook is for a decades long low level recession partly masked by inflation. Stagflation.

Our low interest rates are an artificial and temporary phenomena. No one in their right mind would lend money at a negative real rate of interest. Because of deliberately inflationary policies like QEx. This is because if I have cash, and I want to preserve or even grow that value for the future, and inflation and low rates make buying bonds a fools game, I am better off preserving my cash's value by buying durable goods now.

This drop in demand for bonds should raise rates to at least the rate of inflation to balance out. These high rates would cause the housing correction he predicts in canada. The polyanna's of the world decry him as the boy who cried wolf, but the truth is that our current imbalances relating around credit and saving and spending are there and can only be delayed not abated. Games central banks play can only delay and exacerbate the problems for an even bigger fall in the future. They cannot alter the fundamentals. Fundamentals like housing prices must approximate average incomes. We are clearly way way beyond this range. Garth is right, but because this problem is made by insiders no one can predict the timing. We just KNOW housing has to drop 30% or so, or incomes will have to rise 30% to bring reasonable ratios back into balance. I don't see my boss giving me a 30% raise for nothing, so I'm betting with Garth that prices are going to take a beating.

Also, if mortgages take a beating, GDP takes a hit on consumer spending, bank's loans balance sheets, consumer discretionary spending etc... This can unwind fast or slow, but it must unwind. You can't read Adam Smith's wealth of nations without understanding that this is going to end badly.

Throw in the headwinds of peak oil, boomer's demographics, population growth, globalism and the sovereign defecits and you can see clearly that tomorrow will not be as bright as today.

It is not the end of the world. The sun will still shine and the grass will still grow and people will still make goods and services for trade. What I am predicting is a fairly rapid decline in consumption, real living standards, to something more sustainable. I don't see this as a bad thing exactly, as it also means no more rat race of ridiculous work/life balance for an ever smaller piece of the pie. Things will be made to endure again, and repair will overcome replace, and life will be a lot more slower. We'll be o.k. but your vision of retirement will likely need a great big revision down.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

He's got something right though. At anytime in history, if you look at this period of time with 0% interest rate. What does that tell somebody who's used to 5% or more. 

What 0% says is that it costs nothing to get money. In theory, it should allow us to borrow 1 billion and make 1 million within a day. It's only because it's been going on for so long that we have begin to think that it is normal. I keep him on my watch because he's the balance and checks against the overly optimistic projection of the established media. The truth is always somewhere in between.


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## GOB (Feb 15, 2011)

He does have some good points, but the principles he applies to real estate are disregarded when he considers the larger economy. His only defense is "dont bet against America"

Look how wrong he has been: sell your house in 2008, sell gold at $1000, buy equities and sell gold on August 1, the list goes on....

Now do the opposite of what he says and see how much money you could have made. His problem is that everything he says is stated as if it's a fact, and he is wrong more often than not.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

He also told everybody to buy Nortel at the top. Do not take this guy too seriously, or look at it as entertainment.


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## Chad (Jan 30, 2011)

I find it refreshing to have someone point out the lunacy in todays Canadian housing market as opposed to the steady sunshine from CREA, and Realtors . Seriously anyone who doubts that there is a housing bubble needs to look no further than to see the dumps that are selling for 1 million + in Vancouver.
Historically low interest rates, longer amortizations, CHMC, smaller down payments, have done their job thats for sure.
Why should I pay twice as much for real estate than a guy in 2000 did?
Incomes have not doubled in that time frame last time I checked.
Mabey Canadians holding record debts has something to do with it. So yea I agree with this guys views on real estate anyways.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

There's 2 more years of this debt baby to go. Buckle up for the ride up and then collapse.


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## lost in space (Aug 31, 2015)

this is a comment I left on Canadian Capitalist. And yes I have a man crush on Garth

Haters gonna Hate


OK there must be two Garth Turners out there because the one I read every day is one of the smartest most astute investors I know. I’ve been reading his blog since 2007 and his investing advice can be summed up as follows

•	Avoid individual stocks unless you have a least a million to invest
•	Avoid expensive MF instead buy low cost ETFs
•	Have a balanced portfolio 60 growth 40 safe stuff
•	Diversify outside of Canada 

In other words a Canadian Couch Potato portfolio. 

Secondly his predictions while sometimes early have been spot right on.

Get out of gold

Oh my the howls out outrage Only fools would buy stocks, gold is the best investment one can make, preferably physical gold as the US is going into hyper inflation. (I just checked and gold is down some 40% since he predicted that)

Sell Canada Buy US:

I remember this very clearly because I took a serious look at how I could diversify outside of the Canadian dollar but I didn’t feel comfortable with buying US stocks. At that time I wasn’t aware of non hedged US market ETFs. Those that followed his advice made a killing. Secondly he did an article on how to buy US real estate, this just as the market was turning. Loads of people commented about the great deals they got. The US is coming back: oh my you thought the gold bugs could froth at the mouth you ain’t seen nothing yet. The doomers were predicting the end of the world and thought Garth had gone off his rocker, hyper inflation, a dictatorship sell your US dollars and buy gold, yes great advice)

The US is Coming Back

Oh my you thought people could froth at the mouth you ain’t seen nothing yet. When the dollar was at par and housing market still in the dumps people thought he had gone start raving mad. Buy US are you nuts Well we all know what happened to the Canadian dollar and the TSX. Those that bought made a killing. 

Interest Rates 

Oh Jim (this was in reply to a comment on Canadian Capitalist who reminded everyone that interests won't ever ever rise) on July 23 2015 at 10.33am you got egg on your face big time. It seems the US just started raising rates just as Garth has been predicting taking with it Canadian mortgage rates. This from Moneysense http://www.moneysense.ca/property/buy/mortgage-rates-are-rising/

Housing Market

I agree he has missed the mark on this one. So let me agree with Ram on this one, there is no housing bubble in Canada, house prices will continue long term to rise well above the rate of inflation and the best investment you can make is to buy a condo in TO or Vancouver and rent it out at a loss. Oh and yes sell those US dollars and buy Canadian dollars. I’m being sarcastic is case you haven’t noticed.


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## lost in space (Aug 31, 2015)

GOB said:


> This guy is a real piece of work. A good writer, and probably correct about the end result of the RE market, but arrogant beyond belief and gets almost everything wrong along the way. I posted a comment respectfully pointing some of this out, and of course he censored it.
> 
> On July 31st, 2011:
> "I sure hope nobody reading this pathetic, disposable blog shorted the market for Monday morning, or loaded up on bullion at a Scotiabank branch Friday. If you did, bend over. Like I said, never bet against America."
> ...


S&P 500: 2078 , Gold: $1068
Canadian Dollar 72 cents 

I hope you followed his advice


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

lost in space said:


> S&P 500: 2078 , Gold: $1068
> Canadian Dollar 72 cents
> 
> I hope you followed his advice


Garth is right about preferred shares.
He is also right about USD
He is right about timing of buying houses in USA

He is wrong about timing of Real Estate
He is wrong about timing of Interest rate.

So here you go, make your own judgement.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

lost in space said:


> S&P 500: 2078 , Gold: $1068
> Canadian Dollar 72 cents
> 
> I hope you followed his advice


Bought IGT (gold bullion ETF in CAD) for $13.95 in May 2014, as a non-equity diversifier, ~5% of our total portfolio. Sold about a third of it in October 2015 for $15, used the proceeds to add to an individual stock that doubled in a year - and keeps flying higher (and yes, our portfolio is less than 400K - and yes, gold in CAD performed much better so far than TSX, preferred shares and some bond ETFs - dunno why you'd compare it with S&P 500, but have 33% allocated to US equities regardless)

I love reading Garth's blog, mostly for entertainment now (as he keeps repeating the same things over and over again) But seldomly comment there as my comments seemed to have had a 50/50 chance to see the light of day. And I hate being silenced for no particular reason even more than someone telling me what to (not) invest in


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Garth is entertaining and inevitably will be right from time to time just like all the other prophets.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Does anybody still read his stuff? I fell off the Garth Turner bandwagon when I found out he had no idea how a mortgage works. I would say the beginning of investment wisdom is when you stop listening to Garth Turner.


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## lost in space (Aug 31, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> I love reading Garth's blog, mostly for entertainment now (as he keeps repeating the same things over and over again) But seldomly comment there as my comments seemed to have had a 50/50 chance to see the light of day. And I hate being silenced for no particular reason even more than someone telling me what to (not) invest in


Agree he is a very good writer, very polarizing for some reason but I guess that's what makes it so good. I do read his blog for ideas and trends but to get feedback on investment ideas I come here.

What I intensely dislike is the design. More like a newspaper opinion column than a blog post. You can't search or follow comments.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Wolf Richter points out that house prices in Canada have actually fallen - if you are not Canadian. Foreign investors can now buy 25% cheaper than in 2013 since the Loonie has fallen from near parity with the US dollar to 72 cents.

Chinese investors for example are seeing wonderful bargains in BC real estate priced in Chinese currency.

For Canadians of course it's a different story.

This is all part of the Bank of Canada's policy to crush the Loonie.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/12/12/bank-of-canada-crushes-loonie-dollar-creates-mother-of-all-shorts/


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

Moneytoo: "Sold about a third of it in October 2015 for $15, used the proceeds to add to an individual stock that doubled in a year - and keeps flying higher" 
Would that be NFI?


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> Would that be NFI?


yep


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

i guess you think it'll continue to ride up - in 2016???


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

I hope so


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## celishave (May 8, 2010)

I think his investment advice is fine at a cursory level. Diversify away from Canada, stick to low MER ETF's and have an appropriate asset allocation for your age.

Now, if i had invested in vancouver real estate the same time i had started in the stock market, I would probably be worth $4 Million+. As of now I have yet to crack $1Mil in investable assets.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

As for not buying individual stocks, I kinda had an ongoing argument with the indexers, and I knew that even our so-so CAD picks were doing better than the index (since we were buying most of them when TSX was 14,500+), but I wasn't sure as they were spread across 3 accounts. 

Well, I just recreated our CAD portfolio in the Globe Investor, and was surprised that our 20 Canadian stocks (with some real losers among them and some untimely purchases near highs) have stayed above zero as a group. But of course now that the TSX is down to earth, it's easier to buy an index ETF.

And no, I wouldn't' try it with US or International stocks, but thank you to the commenter whose username I don't remember who said that only the lazy won't beat the TSX index - glad that I listened lol


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## vi123 (Oct 29, 2015)

Moneytoo said:


> As for not buying individual stocks, I kinda had an ongoing argument with the indexers, and I knew that even our so-so CAD picks were doing better than the index (since we were buying most of them when TSX was 14,500+), but I wasn't sure as they were spread across 3 accounts.
> 
> Well, I just recreated our CAD portfolio in the Globe Investor, and was surprised that our 20 Canadian stocks (with some real losers among them and some untimely purchases near highs) have stayed above zero as a group. But of course now that the TSX is down to earth, it's easier to buy an index ETF.
> 
> And no, I wouldn't' try it with US or International stocks, but thank you to the commenter whose username I don't remember who said that only the lazy won't beat the TSX index - glad that I listened lol


I'm guessing that you had a lower proportion of energy stocks in your portfolio. If so, that's not really indicative of any stock-picking talent. You just got lucky with your allocations in a year when the Canadian index was dominated by the drop in oil. If oil had gone to $150 (which some were forecasting), then you would have underperformed the index.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

vi123 said:


> I'm guessing that you had a lower proportion of energy stocks in your portfolio. If so, that's not really indicative of any stock-picking talent. You just got lucky with your allocations in a year when the Canadian index was dominated by the drop in oil. If oil had gone to $150 (which some were forecasting), then you would have underperformed the index.


Yeah I wish oil had gone up to $150 as I bought Crescent Point, Husky, Transcanada and god forsaken Striker Exploration formerly known as Elkwater micro-cap, now on its way to oblivion - all near their highs last year (not to mention BNS, MG and POT that are also down a lot lol)

But I'm glad I didn't buy Valeant. Even though I was really tempted to buy it at $200 this fall - so yes, you're right, I got lucky lol

(New Year resolution: stop arguing with indexers... lol)


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

I have a lot of respect for Garth, love him or hate him, he at least has the balls to say real things, put them in writing and stand by what he says. 

I was speaking to a good friend of mine about the landlord business in the GTA, and I told him, there is no landlord business here and there hasn't been for 10 years. 

Imagine if I went to a bank, and I was starting a cookie factory. I'm going to make cookies. They cost $1.00 to make and I'm going to sell them for $.95. I don't want my machines to sit idle. 

So anyone with any brains would tell me it's a terrible plan. Bad business. Of course I'd tell them, don't worry my plan is good in 10 years I will sell my cookie factory and I will sell it for more than I bought it so I will make money. The shortfall will come out of my paycheck. 

This is the current state of landlording in the GTA. It's not a business, it's pure speculation. 

Now let me tell you another story, a guy bought a preconstruction house, I rented it for him. The rent was $2400 and the costs were over $3000. He paid $700,000 for the house. He used his HELOC to cover the difference of $600 per month. After the year he asked the tenant for $3000 in rent per month, the tenant was like...no I can rent 10 other houses similar for $2500 or so. Owner puts the house on the market and he got $1,100,000 for it. 

How the hell can you argue with that kind of gains? It's obscene and a symptom of the madness. Is it sustainable? No but our government will keep misleading and changing policy until whatever the catalyst happens to change it all. They will kick the can as far down the road as possible for as long as possible 

So recently the government, increased down payments over $500,000 but they also allowed landlords to use 100% of their rental income as income to qualify for mortgages. (Up from 50%) since then 4-5 of my clients have bought more income properties. 

Right now housing policy is the only thing propping up the canadian economy. When the **** hits the fan it'll hit harder and faster and be worse than anyone ever thought.


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## fraser (May 15, 2010)

I agree with many of the things Garth says. I believe that housing is only slightly affordable for many because of the low interest rates. They will be increasing. Combine that with high consumer debt loads and you have a disaster waiting to occur.

Here in Calgary it has been financially advantageous for us to rent instead of buy. We stopped looking to buy 18 months ago but we are watching the market. A place that we saw one year ago had just been reduced from $629 to $609. It is still on the market, now at $549. Unit beside listed for $525 and sold for something less a few months ago. I know that our landlord will only break even after five years, perhaps longer, because of condo assessments and a drop in the market. We may actually move to a larger unit....at the same or less rent of course.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

People trash Garth Turner because the housing market hasn't crashed.................yet.

I looked at the Calgary MLS the other day. Everyone in the world knows about oil prices and Calgary is at ground zero for the financial fallout.

There are thousands of homes for sale in Calgary and area right now, and yet just look at the prices.

I mean.................$800,000 for a clapboard bungalow ?..............Good luck with that plan.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Sorry Fraser...........you are on the ground in Calgary and know better than I. 

Just looking at the MLS listings and home prices, while considering the economic conditions...........makes me conclude the financial downfall is only beginning.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Berubeland said:


> He paid $700,000 for the house. He used his HELOC to cover the difference of $600 per month. After the year he asked the tenant for $3000 in rent per month, the tenant was like...no I can rent 10 other houses similar for $2500 or so. Owner puts the house on the market and he got $1,100,000 for it. ..


So the $400,000 in capital gains will likely qualify him as a flipper and be assessed at 100% income for that year?


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

I have no idea, I guess that's between him and his accountant. Or whatever.


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## fraser (May 15, 2010)

That is exactly why (so I have been told) that CRA actively reviews condo sales in Toronto and in Vancouver. They apparently have been very successful in finding undeclared investment income and income reported as capital gains. 

No doubt this has been extremely lucrative for them, or should I say the royal 'We'


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

Between that and the HST and land transfer taxes the government is making bank. Its no wonder they don't want it to stop!


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## fraser (May 15, 2010)

$800K for a clapboard bungalow in Calgary is a gross exaggeration. Perhaps in an area where land value exceeds home value.

There are lots of very good sub $450K detached homes for sale in Calgary. By far the biggest hit is in the high priced homes, the largest in the $1M plus. Having said that, the CREB is busy peddling something that would be best left on the ground in the pasture.

I believe that it will get worse before it gets better. We leave town in two weeks and will essentially be gone until mid April. My best guess is that we may be ready, based on the market, to buy again in Jan/Feb 2017. If not, we will continue to be happy renters with a healthy bank balance.

CRA, I am told, are busy doing projects in Vancouver and Toronto to identify real estate flippers and ensure that the gains are being reported and reported accurately as straight investment income.


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## steve41 (Apr 18, 2009)

My new assessment totals $2,655,000.... only $56,000 for the building, the remainder is land. (7000 square ft lot) WTF?


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

steve41 said:


> My new assessment totals $2,655,000.... only $56,000 for the building, the remainder is land. (7000 square ft lot) WTF?


How much did it jump compared to last year?


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## steve41 (Apr 18, 2009)

Last year it was $1.954M

Here's the kicker.... my street has open ditches, no sidewalks and (almost) no street lighting!


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## Underworld (Aug 26, 2009)

I don't get people that make can make a living from constantly saying something is going to go down. Everything goes down heavily and up heavily at some point in time. Mike Maloney seems to be another one of these.


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## lost in space (Aug 31, 2015)

I have to admit this market has even me stumped. I mean outside of Alberta nothing can seem to slow this market down. It totally defies logic. I say give it another year. 

BTW taking a course on the GFC (mentioned this in another thread) the underlying issue was bubble thinking, the idea house prices would never go down!


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

steve41 said:


> Here's the kicker.... my street has open ditches, no sidewalks and (almost) no street lighting!


That's what makes it desirable in my opinion...keeps the spandex crowd away.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

steve41 this couldn't be Hornby Island??
I'm in rural southern ont. and I'm assessed at about 1/55th of what you're at, & with approximately 3x the lot size.. would it be presumptuous to assume you're talking Vancouver or Victoria?


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## steve41 (Apr 18, 2009)

No.... I have a home on Hornby as well as the one in West Van.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

ah, nice


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Wish i had a place in Hornby too


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Hornby appeals to the exclusive crowd because it takes 3 ferries to get there from Vancouver. A friend used to get to their cottage there by cigar boat from the marina in Deep Cove. In the 70s.

Now they are on Galiano, the first stop for the ferry. No power, no water, no roads. Phillmore Point.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

steve41 said:


> No.... I have a home on Hornby as well as the one in West Van.


But is it tsunami proof?


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## steve41 (Apr 18, 2009)

Anywhere in the inside passage (east of vancouver island) is tsunami-proof. Most tsunami damage along the Pacific Coast is caused by earthquakes happening offshore and the wave comes from the open ocean. If an earthquake happened on the inside passage.... yikes!

Hornby's main 'curse' is the sandy beaches, not the remoteness. The gulf islands are almost universally rocky. Savary and Hornby are the exceptions, ..... the beaches are the main attraction for the Vancouver elite. In the Summer, Hornby's population quadruples.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

steve41 said:


> Anywhere in the inside passage (east of vancouver island) is tsunami-proof. Most tsunami damage along the Pacific Coast is caused by earthquakes happening offshore and the wave comes from the open ocean. If an earthquake happened on the inside passage.... yikes!
> 
> Hornby's main 'curse' is the sandy beaches, not the remoteness. The gulf islands are almost universally rocky. Savary and Hornby are the exceptions, ..... the beaches are the main attraction for the Vancouver elite. In the Summer, Hornby's population quadruples.


Sounds great! Do you ever rent your place out (to fiscally responsible flatlanders)?


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

The most annoying part of Garth is that he is always changing his predictions to fit the market (slowly).

Now he says he "never predicted a crash." (just today)

Not so long ago he predicted "a crash, then slow melt."

He used to sell generators for the apocalypse! 

Source: been reading his blog nearly since inception.

He's already admitted to being a terrible predictor, but now he's also an inconsistent liar! Have to post here...because he doesn't publish my comments about his inconsistencies!!!

He was wrong: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/10/10/i-was-wrong/



You stink Garth, fess up! lol

Even I've had to admit that this has gone on far longer than anticipated, but the RE market will revert painfully back to the mean.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

He changes his predictions because things conditions change. I wish more people would 'stick to their guns'' less mainly because it's a stupid.

My issu


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