# Bitcoin speculation in Canada



## james4beach

Has anyone done this, and if so, which exchange did you use? It looks like Coinbase allows Canadian customers:
https://www.coinbase.com/places/canada

Choosing a solid exchange might be the most delicate part of bitcoin/ethereum speculation process.


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## nathan79

I use Quadrigacx. They are based in Vancouver and they seem to have more funding options than Coinbase. I haven't tried to withdraw yet.

My overall impression so far is decent, but spreads can be a bit wide at times due to lower liquidity. If you watch the price closely you can usually catch a dip.

My other account is with Poloniex, but I don't fund that with CAD. I mainly used it to trade my forked Bitcoin Cash for some Ethereum, Litecoin, and others.


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## james4beach

Quadrigacx :

I see some concerns based on their technical presence. Their web site says they are based in Vancouver, but I don't see an actual address. Searching around google finds one, but it's very suspicious that Canadian address and phone number aren't posted on their web site.

Much more concerning than that, their entire web presence is registered under the Bahamas, and corporate ownership information is concealed, with only an office address in Nassau Bahamas given. *This is extremely unusual for a legitimate company*. Normally you will see an actual contact person, the corporation's name, street address, and even a phone number all in Canada.

The Bahamas link is also clearly more than superficial. A search of their social media found an event posted a year ago with the description "Our CEO Gerald Cotten at Alpha North Capital Conference in the Bahamas."

The fact they are concealing their Canadian presence and contact information, and have such a strong Bahamas link, raises all the red flags. I would never do business with this company. Part of my real job is cyber security and fraud investigation, and Quadrigacx fails the sniff test. This does not look legitimate.


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## nathan79

I hope you find one that meets your criteria. I'll stay with Quadriga for now, but I'm open to switching.


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## fatcat

i just had an eye exam and the optometrist was telling me about one of his patients who owns a small business and was hit with the ransomware scam ... his whole IT system got compromised and scrambled

the scammers wanted 15K and the guy was getting ready to go the local bitcoin vending machine here in victoria with 15K cash and buy the coins

but i guess they had a big staff meeting and decided to spend the 15K rebuilding the IT system and implementing better security and better backups which was a wise choice because to pay would have made him a target again

but yeah, he was on his way with 15K to the local bitcoin vending machine


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## OnlyMyOpinion

fatcat said:


> ... but yeah, he was on his way with 15K to the local bitcoin vending machine


I wonder why they wouldn't take an e-transfer or a bank draft? :friendly_wink: What did they do before bitcoin?


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## fatcat

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> I wonder why they wouldn't take an e-transfer or a bank draft? :friendly_wink: What did they do before bitcoin?


nothing really, it's one of the many new crimes entirely enabled by cryptocurrencies


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## nathan79

The last three posts should really be moved to the main Bitcoin thread... this thread is about how to buy/speculate on Bitcoin in Canada.


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## james4beach

fatcat said:


> the scammers wanted 15K and the guy was getting ready to go the local bitcoin vending machine here in victoria with 15K cash and buy the coins


That would be a big mistake. Organizations that pay are more likely to get hit with repeated attacks. It's also not a guarantee that paying will unlock the computers at all.

I'm glad they decided to invest the 15K in upgrading systems and better implementations. They should also hire an expert in computer security. Otherwise they are sitting ducks.


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## fatcat

james4beach said:


> That would be a big mistake. Organizations that pay are more likely to get hit with repeated attacks. It's also not a guarantee that paying will unlock the computers at all.
> 
> I'm glad they decided to invest the 15K in upgrading systems and better implementations. They should also hire an expert in computer security. Otherwise they are sitting ducks.


what if he had decided to pay ? ... i would like to be there when he dumps 15K into one of thise small atm’s ... i assume it has a bill reader so he stands there and feeds 150 100’s into the damn thing and buys 2 bitcoins ... wow 

the people that make thise machines would love to see btc come down to about 200 a coin or something then the technology would work a little better

you’d think somebody would be staking the things out because a good day might see a lot of cash (you know, the old fashioned kind) in the atm


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## 30seconds

I use coinbase and store in exodus. Getting a hardware wallet for christmas


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## james4beach

30seconds said:


> I use coinbase and store in exodus. Getting a hardware wallet for christmas


Ah, fantastic! I was thinking of Coinbase (a reputable company). Did you open it using a Canadian address?

What was the process like, for transferring money in?


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## nathan79

james4beach said:


> Ah, fantastic! I was thinking of Coinbase (a reputable company). Did you open it using a Canadian address?
> 
> What was the process like, for transferring money in?


What makes them reputable?


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## Danny

I have a coin base account. I have only purchased Ethereum on that site. I know at the moment you cant sell the product on there site. I guess you would have to transfer it somewhere else to sell. Could be a concern but at the moment I only have a few thousand dollars in there and treating it like a penny stock and not planning to sell. Will deal with that when time comes up. Anyone else have a Canadian coin base account and have this concern?


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## forrory1

I use Coinbase to buy. Since they pulled out of Canada you can no longer sell on Coinbase.

Yes we have a Canadian option and it would be nice to buy Canadian but often I have found the credit card buy option on Coinbase is still cheaper then QuadrigaCX after you factor in the larger price spread.

Regardless chance are you will store your bitcoins on whichever exchange you end up buying on. While the past tells us this is bad practice if you are going to store your coins online I would trust Coinbase by a long shot. They just have more resources to deal with security. 

I would highly recommend offline storage two options being a hardware wallet someone already mentions which ranges from $100-$200. A paper wallet is also considered very secure when created correctly. If anyone wants more information on how to create a paper wallet just PM me.

R


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## sags

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7ewo1n/please_help_coinbase_lost_25010_from_wire/


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## james4beach

nathan79 said:


> What makes them reputable?


Coinbase seems more reputable than the other major exchanges. They are located in the US and have some insurance, and (as far as I can tell) operate within US laws. They probably have ambitions of going public which means that they will have to make sure their finances & taxes are pristine. It also seems unlikely that the executives would want to risk prison time by engaging in international money laundering, drug trade, and tax evasion.

Warnings about other exchanges, such as this one in the news, note that competitors like Bitfinex are run out of Caribbean tax havens to circumvent US laws. This is why I immediately got suspicious of Canada's Quadrigacx due to its strong links to the Bahamas. Smells like the same story.

_None_ of these exchanges are particularly encouraging, but as far as I can tell, Coinbase is the most trustworthy among the options.

It appears that Canadian customers can buy bitcoin/ethereum/litecoin through Coinbase, however, we cannot yet sell the coins.


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## OnlyMyOpinion

james4beach said:


> ... It appears that Canadian customers can buy bitcoin/ethereum/litecoin through Coinbase, however, we cannot yet sell the coins.


No liquidity? Well hell's bells who sells anyway? 

I'd be in it for the long term - look how well its done in the short term! I think it was Jargey who taught us to 'go big or go home'


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## james4beach

I'll probably roll the dice with a small amount, maybe a few day's worth of employment income. World-wide bubble manias like this don't happen too often!

There's a bitcoin ATM in the food court of a local mall. I could alternatively buy through that...


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## fatcat

james4beach said:


> I'll probably roll the dice with a small amount, maybe a few day's worth of employment income. World-wide bubble manias like this don't happen too often!
> 
> There's a bitcoin ATM in the food court of a local mall. I could alternatively buy through that...


here you go james https://localbitcoins.com/places/572303/portland-97219-us/


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## sags

If bitcoin collapsed in the forest and nobody was there to hear it..........would it make a sound ?

Point is...........it is all contained speculation and a price collapse would be a non event to most people.


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## james4beach

fatcat said:


> here you go james https://localbitcoins.com/places/572303/portland-97219-us/


lol, there's no way I'd use a craigslist-type of service to buy a security.


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## sags

Meeting someone in a hotel with a suitcase full of cash. Who are you............Brian Mulroney ?


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## james4beach

james4beach said:


> Quadrigacx :
> 
> I see some concerns based on their technical presence. Their web site says they are based in Vancouver, but I don't see an actual address. Searching around google finds one, but it's very suspicious that Canadian address and phone number aren't posted on their web site.
> 
> Much more concerning than that, their entire web presence is registered under the Bahamas, and corporate ownership information is concealed, with only an office address in Nassau Bahamas given. *This is extremely unusual for a legitimate company*. Normally you will see an actual contact person, the corporation's name, street address, and even a phone number all in Canada.
> 
> The Bahamas link is also clearly more than superficial. A search of their social media found an event posted a year ago with the description "Our CEO Gerald Cotten at Alpha North Capital Conference in the Bahamas."
> 
> The fact they are concealing their Canadian presence and contact information, and have such a strong Bahamas link, raises all the red flags. I would never do business with this company. Part of my real job is cyber security and fraud investigation, and Quadrigacx fails the sniff test. This does not look legitimate.


Proud that I posted this before the scam was exposed.


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## james4beach

forrory1 said:


> I use Coinbase to buy. Since they pulled out of Canada you can no longer sell on Coinbase.


I hold some bitcoins at Coinbase.

For a long time, there was no way to sell them (you couldn't sell and withdraw actual cash). Does anyone know if Coinbase has added the ability to sell/withdraw?

Poking around the interface, it looks like I might be able to add a Paypal account. Does that mean I can withdraw money by sending it to Paypal as an intermediary?


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## nathan79

Nice call, James. I didn't lose anything with Quadriga since I never kept any money on the exchange for longer than it took to buy/sell/transfer to my own wallet.

I know Coinbase is considered reputable by many, but rule #1 of crypto is don't leave money on exchanges.

I have heard that PayPal was supporting Bitcoin, but I couldn't find anything about it when I looked on my account so I'm guessing it's US-only.


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## james4beach

nathan79 said:


> Nice call, James. I didn't lose anything with Quadriga since I never kept any money on the exchange for longer than it took to buy/sell/transfer to my own wallet.
> 
> I know Coinbase is considered reputable by many, but rule #1 of crypto is don't leave money on exchanges.
> 
> I have heard that PayPal was supporting Bitcoin, but I couldn't find anything about it when I looked on my account so I'm guessing it's US-only.


I'm happy to hear you didn't lose anything at Quadriga.

So if I can't transfer cash using PayPal, then how would I liquidate and take out cash from Coinbase?

Maybe I can send the coins to a Bitcoin ATM and cash them out there?


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## nathan79

Sorry, I thought you meant moving the actual Bitcoin to PayPal. I am pretty sure you can sell the coins on Coinbase and then transfer the cash (USD) to PayPal.

I wish I could be of more help, but I don't have a Coinbase account.


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## m3s

I have a coinbase account linked to my TD US bank (free and available to Canadians) Coinbase Pro has better rates though but it did require US ID for the new US reporting requirements. It sounds like all US based exchanges will require US ID now

I convert USD to DAI or other sable coins and I move it to a hardware wallet. I don't intend to ever convert it back to fiat because more and more places are adopting crypto as payments. Next time I travel I may try to convert some to that local currency (depends on the country really)

Really I want to leverage smart contracts and staking for yield because interest in the fiat world is dead. So far I have lent DAI (USD) on compound for about 3%. I expect to yield much better staking ETH. Next I will try ETH-DAI pair to earn exchange fees from decentralized exchanges


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## james4beach

But @m3s I'm pretty sure you have a US domiciled coinbase account, so you have full features.

I opened my Coinbase account with Canadian identification and address. I definitely can't link it to an external bank account.


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## m3s

If I were you I'd move them to your own wallet like metamask or ledger (if you buy a ledger be sure to use a PO box address and burner email!)

Then if you want to sell BTC I'd swap for DAI (USD stablecoin) or ETH. Metamask will compare the swap fees on the decentralized exchange and you'll get better rates than on coinbase. You could lend DAI or you can even provide liquidity to a decentralized exchange and earn those fees for yourself.

Coinbase and traditional exchanges are a necessary evil to exchange fiat for cypto but you might as well keep it digital once you have it


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## james4beach

I bought $300 of BTC a few years ago, and today my position is worth about $1,000.

I feel like the rational thing to do is recover my principal at this point. I'm thinking I might sell $500 worth, which lets me walk away with a guaranteed win. That would also leave $500 on the table, in case the rally continues or gets even crazier. The idea would be then to leave what remains for a very long time, since I get to continue gambling with ZERO risk.

Does this seem like a rational approach?


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## m3s

I'd swap it to an ERC-20 token to try DeFi

For example
ETH (need some for DeFi fees anyways)
WBTC (wrapped BTC)
DAI/USDC/USDT (USD) < just approved for US banks

Then you could put a pair of tokens into a liquidity pool on Uniswap to earn the swap fees (there's been 50-100% APY lately due to crazy volume, even 20% on USD) This has impermanent loss risk unless you stick to stablecoins. For example you could put 50/50 USD/BTC and it will constantly rebalance to 50/50 and pay you fees at the same time

More realistic would be to lend it on Compound because it would be fewer transactions (gas fees are high lately)


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## james4beach

m3s said:


> I'd swap it to an ERC-20 token to try DeFi


I really can't do this at this point. I'm just trying to decide how much of my BTC to sell for cash. Yes as archaic and "useless" the cash is, I can use it to buy food and pay rent


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## fireseeker

james4beach said:


> Does this seem like a rational approach?


No, technically this is not rational.

You are anchoring to your $300 purchase price. Rationally speaking, this figure is no longer meaningful (except for ACB purposes).

Today, you have BTC worth $1,000. If you sell half and the other half goes to zero, you will lose $500. It's not zero risk.

That said, I would do just what you're proposing!


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## james4beach

fireseeker said:


> No, technically this is not rational.
> 
> You are anchoring to your $300 purchase price. Rationally speaking, this figure is no longer meaningful (except for ACB purposes).
> 
> Today, you have BTC worth $1,000. If you sell half and the other half goes to zero, you will lose $500. It's not zero risk.
> 
> That said, I would do just what you're proposing!


Ah interesting. You're saying you would do the same thing, sell half, keep the other half?

I'm open minded. I just absolutely want my $300 back. That can buy 42 lunches, and while crypto is really neat and everything, that's a lot of lunches.


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## m3s

Canada treats crypto sales as capital gains right? So to get your $300 back you need to account for taxes

That's why I'd just use it to experiment with DeFi and let it grow tax free until more options to spend it mature


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## fireseeker

james4beach said:


> Ah interesting. You're saying you would do the same thing, sell half, keep the other half?
> 
> I'm open minded. I just absolutely want my $300 back. That can buy 42 lunches, and while crypto is really neat and everything, that's a lot of lunches.


Yes. This is a way of having your cake and eating it, too (for lunch).

But it truly is a behavioural quirk. It's like people holding on to losing stocks in the hopes they can get back to break-even. 
The market does not know and does not care about your break-even number. 
Every day, all investors face the same analysis: Should I buy, sell or hold this position? What you paid for it is immaterial to its future prospects. 

Selling half is a way of assuaging our likely regret if the holding crashes. It's an unhelpful bias. 
But I'm human, so I'm prone to this, too.


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## R. Austin

Earlier this Summer I sold off a portion of my ETH. I transferred it from my hard drive wallet to Coinbase, sold it on Coinbase, and then sent the CAD $ to Paypal. From there you can use it however you like, whether to directly make purchases or just send it to your bank account. You do get dinged a little on fees every step of the way, but it was the 'safest' way I found to actually get CAD $ back out.


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## james4beach

R. Austin said:


> Earlier this Summer I sold off a portion of my ETH. I transferred it from my hard drive wallet to Coinbase, sold it on Coinbase, and then sent the CAD $ to Paypal. From there you can use it however you like, whether to directly make purchases or just send it to your bank account. You do get dinged a little on fees every step of the way, but it was the 'safest' way I found to actually get CAD $ back out.


Thanks, very interesting! I presume you also had the Canadian Coinbase account. So it sounds like I can sell my coinz and then send the CAD to Paypal... that's great news.


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> I bought $300 of BTC a few years ago, and today my position is worth about $1,000.
> 
> I feel like the rational thing to do is recover my principal at this point. I'm thinking I might sell $500 worth, which lets me walk away with a guaranteed win. That would also leave $500 on the table, in case the rally continues or gets even crazier. The idea would be then to leave what remains for a very long time, since I get to continue gambling with ZERO risk.
> 
> Does this seem like a rational approach?





fireseeker said:


> No, technically this is not rational.
> 
> You are anchoring to your $300 purchase price. Rationally speaking, this figure is no longer meaningful (except for ACB purposes).
> 
> Today, you have BTC worth $1,000. If you sell half and the other half goes to zero, you will lose $500. It's not zero risk.
> 
> That said, I would do just what you're proposing!


I agree with @fireseeker .

If you invested $300 four years ago and it's worth $1000 today and you take off the table $500, you are not zero risk. You currently own $1000 at high risk, but you own $1000 as of today. You'd only drop that exposure to $500 at high risk. Basically, you'd only reduce your high risk exposure in half. That's it. Zero risk means taking off the table all of its current value.


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## MrBlackhill

See the limit case to understand better why you should see your current $1000 as money you own as of today at high risk.

Say you invested $300 four years ago. You've forgotten it. Now it's worth... $1,000,000! Would you be here saying "I'm thinking I might sell $500 worth, which lets me walk away with a guaranteed win. The idea would be then to leave what remains for a very long time, since I get to continue gambling with ZERO risk"?

Or would you take off the table $500,000 and let the remaining $500,000 at high risk?

Or would you cash in $1,000,000?

So, your idea is not ZERO risk. It just means you are willing to let $500 at high risk.

That being said, progressively reducing the risk on a winning bet can be a good strategy, in my opinion.


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## sags

Cash out your $1,000 in bitcoins and buy Berkshire B shares.

Bitcoin price is and will continue to be driven by wild eyed speculation......until it doesn't. It is the greater fool theory in practice.

Berkshire will continue to collect cash flow and build value. There is no possibility of total collapse.

If you trade your bitcoins for Berkshire shares........you trade no asset value for shares that contain assets that will grow in value to perpetuity.


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## nathan79

Another way to look at it... would $500 improve your life in a meaningful way? Would $1000?

If you need the money to pay off a debt or fix your car, the choice is pretty simple -- sell as much as you need to. If you're saving for a vacation, a down payment, or for retirement, then you should put the amount of money into perspective based on when you think you will need it.

Once you determine the impact on your life, the next question you should ask is whether there's an opportunity cost to holding. Is there an investment you'd rather put $1000 into that you expect will have a better return (based on your time horizon)?

The last question I would ask is how you feel about your investment. Do you feel worse, better, or the same about your investment right now compared to when you first made it? If you feel worse, you should take some profits (up to you how much). If you feel exactly the same, why would you sell anything at all, unless you already justified selling based on the previous criteria. If you feel more optimistic, consider adding to your position (though I doubt that's the case).


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## hboy54

james4beach said:


> Does this seem like a rational approach?


The whole affair is not rational in the sense that your time is worth 3 figures/hour as an engineer. Why fool around with perhaps dozens of hours invested in reading to only put $300 at risk in the first place? So I vote for sell it all and get back to productive activities.


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## MrBlackhill

hboy54 said:


> The whole affair is not rational in the sense that your time is worth 3 figures/hour as an engineer. Why fool around with perhaps dozens of hours invested in reading to only put $300 at risk in the first place? So I vote for sell it all and get back to productive activities.


Hahaha, I like that reply, true.


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## james4beach

hboy54 said:


> The whole affair is not rational in the sense that your time is worth 3 figures/hour as an engineer. Why fool around with perhaps dozens of hours invested in reading to only put $300 at risk in the first place? So I vote for sell it all and get back to productive activities.


This ignores the fun of being involved with quite possibly the largest bubble in world history. I absolutely have to hold onto some BTC.

I realize this isn't rational of course, but this is entertaining. Like sitting at a table at the casino. Definitely worth it for me to keep playing, especially since I can recoup my original $ and continue "playing for free" at the casino.


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## james4beach

Very interesting replies, thanks everyone for these thoughts! It's got me thinking.


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> See the limit case to understand better why you should see your current $1000 as money you own as of today at high risk.
> 
> Say you invested $300 four years ago. You've forgotten it. Now it's worth... $1,000,000! Would you be here saying "I'm thinking I might sell $500 worth, which lets me walk away with a guaranteed win. The idea would be then to leave what remains for a very long time, since I get to continue gambling with ZERO risk"?
> 
> Or would you take off the table $500,000 and let the remaining $500,000 at high risk?
> 
> Or would you cash in $1,000,000?
> 
> So, your idea is not ZERO risk. It just means you are willing to let $500 at high risk.
> 
> That being said, progressively reducing the risk on a winning bet can be a good strategy, in my opinion.


Great illustration, thanks! You can also think of an intermediate step.

Start with $300 four years ago.
Today the position is worth $1,000,000.
Pretend you LIQUIDATE and now hold in your hand $1,000,000 cash.

I think the same reasoning should be applied to positions in stocks. In the case above, you've got a million $ in your hands. The question to invest/speculate should now be done as if you are starting from scratch, with that million $.

For me, pretending you liquidate, and then deciding to re-enter the position makes it more clear.


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## sags

FOMO.........fear of missing out.

Would anyone apply the same logic to buying lottery tickets ? 

Would they buy one of every lottery availabe .........just in case they might have won ?


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## nathan79

james4beach said:


> Great illustration, thanks! You can also think of an intermediate step.
> 
> Start with $300 four years ago.
> Today the position is worth $1,000,000.
> Pretend you LIQUIDATE and now hold in your hand $1,000,000 cash.
> 
> I think the same reasoning should be applied to positions in stocks. In the case above, you've got a million $ in your hands. The question to invest/speculate should now be done as if you are starting from scratch, with that million $.
> 
> For me, pretending you liquidate, and then deciding to re-enter the position makes it more clear.


Would you actually withdraw the $1,000,000 and hold it in your hand? That's an important distinction. Many of us probably have six figures worth of cash in the bank, but is that the same feeling as holding it in your hand? When I look at my bank account with a few 100K, it feels kind of abstract... in fact, not much less abstract than looking at my Bitcoin wallet. It does feel a bit more secure in terms of stability, but no more or less tangible.


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## sags

I would think that anyone who invested $300 four years ago and watched it climb to $1,000,000 without cashing in, has already decided to never cash it out.


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## MrBlackhill

nathan79 said:


> Would you actually withdraw the $1,000,000 and hold it in your hand?


I don't think he was saying he would physically cash out.

The illustration here was to understand that the current value should be seen as owned and one should not stay anchored to the money initially invested, as @fireseeker said.

@james4beach saw his idea of taking off the table $500 as zero risk for the remaining $500 because it's more money than his $300 initially invested, but actually he isn't giving too much value to the remaining $500 and that's why he's willing to continue risking it (which is why it's not zero risk).

The $1,000,000 example was a limit case to illustrate that you should not anchor to the money initially invested, but to the value you have today. When comparing $300 to $1000, it's easy to stay anchored to the initial $300 because there's no big difference and not so much value given to that $1000. When comparing $300 to $1,000,000, that's where we understand that we'll anchor to that new $1,000,000 and we won't want to keep it at high risk.

I think that @james4beach didn't meant "holding in your hand" physically, but as a "reset process". When that $300 of cash was invested in BTC and climbed to $1000 of BTC, it's still abstract that your current decision process should see that $1000 of BTC as $1000 of cash opportunity. The decision process is more obvious with $1,000,000. If that $300 of cash invested into BTC became $1,000,000 of BTC, sell it to truly get the feeling that you own $1,000,000 of cash and then reset the past (forget that it was worth just $300 four years ago) and ask yourself if, as of today, you'd still decide to invest $1,000,000 in BTC. I guess you wouldn't. Same logic applies to that $1000.


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> I think that @james4beach didn't meant "holding in your hand" physically, but as a "reset process". When that $300 of cash was invested in BTC and climbed to $1000 of BTC, it's still abstract that your current decision process should see that $1000 of BTC as $1000 of cash opportunity. The decision process is more obvious with $1,000,000. If that $300 of cash invested into BTC became $1,000,000 of BTC, sell it to truly get the feeling that you own $1,000,000 of cash and then reset the past (forget that it was worth just $300 four years ago) *and ask yourself if, as of today, you'd still decide to invest $1,000,000 in BTC. I guess you wouldn't.* Same logic applies to that $1000.


Right, thinking about cashing it out is just to reset the past. Make it a brand new decision and forget about the cost basis; it doesn't matter.

The question is: today, how much of my cash do I want to invest into BTC? I should decide on that amount, and then adjust the position accordingly.

I decided that I want $600 worth of BTC. My position happens to be $1000, so I'll have to sell $400 to make this happen.

If my current position was $1,000,000 then I would have to sell $999,400 of it.

This has been a helpful exercise. Applies to stock speculation too. For example, I currently have $4000 of CJT after a huge rally. So now I say to myself: pretend the portfolio was liquidated and I'm sitting in cash. Would I invest $4000 today into CJT? Yes, I would. So I'll keep the position intact.


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## Rusty O'Toole

For $300 bucks I would hang onto it and see where it goes. I've blown bigger money than that on worse speculations.

PS I hope you are not one of those guys who can't wait to sell as soon as he sees a little profit, but hangs onto losers like grim death. That is no way to make money. You do better to hang onto the winners as long as they keep going up and dumping the losers as soon as you know they aren't performing.


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## MrBlackhill

(Posted elsewhere)


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## james4beach

Rusty O'Toole said:


> For $300 bucks I would hang onto it and see where it goes. I've blown bigger money than that on worse speculations.
> 
> PS I hope you are not one of those guys who can't wait to sell as soon as he sees a little profit, but hangs onto losers like grim death. That is no way to make money. You do better to hang onto the winners as long as they keep going up and dumping the losers as soon as you know they aren't performing.


Nope, I never hang onto losing positions. Like what you're describing, I use the basic idea of holding onto winners (let them run) and aggressively get rid of losers.


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## james4beach

I sold some and adjusted my position down. I'm now gambling $600 on Bitcoin (size of the position).

I stopped thinking about the original purchase amounts and approached this by thinking about how large I want my exposure to be, today. Now I have $600 at risk.

This also gave me a chance to test cash withdrawals with Coinbase. It's pretty nice. The proceeds of selling a few hundred $ worth (after $3 fee) were instantly transferred to my Paypal account. The cash can then be transferred out to a linked bank account or used for other Paypal transactions.


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## newfoundlander61

I bet anyone who invests in Bitcoin (not me ) checks it everyday, that would drive me nuts. Not my cup of tea to invest in.


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## Rusty O'Toole

I sold some and adjusted my position down. I'm now gambling $600 on Bitcoin (size of the position).

I stopped thinking about the original purchase amounts and approached this by thinking about how large I want my exposure to be, today. Now I have $600 at risk.

This also gave me a chance to test cash withdrawals with Coinbase. It's pretty nice. The proceeds of selling a few hundred $ worth (after $3 fee) were instantly transferred to my Paypal account. The cash can then be transferred out to a linked bank account or used for other Paypal transactions.

You say you paid $300 "a few years ago" and now your position is worth $1000 or a 233.33% gain. How does that compare to your other investments? If Bitcoin was beating everything else by a wide margin I think I would be adding to my position not lightening up. I wouldn't sell until it started to drop.


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## MrBlackhill

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I wouldn't sell until it started to drop.


It started to drop. Unless that -20% is just its usual huge volatility.


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## sags

The whales manipulated the price up to $44,000 and now they are selling a bunch of coins and shearing the sheep.

When the price tumbles to the point they don't want to sell any more coins, they will remove them from the market "sell" side and start manipulating the price up again. To increase the price they go on a promotional pump tour of the internet. Rinse and repeat........

That is what happens when you have a handful of people with a big pile of bitcoins on one side and people desperate to buy a sliver of a bitcoin on the other.

The unregulated exchanges make it all possible.

Bitcoins ran up to $44,000 based on no reason. They have touched down to $30,000 for no reason. The decline will stop when the whales decide it will.

It is all manipulation and a scam.





__





Bitcoin Ticker - Tick by tick - Real time updates






bitcointicker.co


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## sags

If Berkshire A shares bounced around from $350,000 down to $275,000 and then back up to $325,000 with no news.........the regulators would cease trading and take a look. Investors would want an explanation. The bitcoin price is bouncing around $2-3K in a minute due to supply and demand controlled by the whales and promoted speculation.


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## sags

262,300 bitcoin traders got liquidated out of their long positions..









Bitcoin Crash Liquidates 262,344 Traders | Finance Magnates


Bitcoin price plunged nearly 20% in the last 24 hours as the recent BTC crash has liquidated 262,244 traders with long positions.




www.financemagnates.com


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## doctrine

"whales" - why people think that the whales are going buy Bitcoin at any price in endless quantities and never sell is beyond me. Hedge funds and other institutions in Bitcoin will flee if they think they can't make money faster than you can blink your eye, literallly, since most of them are going to be algorithmic. "these pension funds are suckers and will have to buy in and I'll sell my bitcoin to them when it reaches $250,000 USD". Wow. I have heard similar quotes from multiple people who I know have more money than they should in Bitcoin.


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## nathan79

Long time holders cashing out isn't manipulation. Whales aren't all acting in unison either. Some guys on here love their conspiracy theories a bit too much.

Anyway, I'm a long time holder who has been making sells since 18K... average sell price just over 29K. We'll see if this dip is temporary or not.. if not, will aim to start slowly buying back in at around 24K. If the bubble continues, will resume selling if it goes over 40K again.


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## sags

Here is a conspiracy theory.......from a well known bitcoin promoter.



> _Banks don’t like bitcoin because it makes them less relevant, so you are seeing their attempted manipulation over the weekend. #bitcoin $250 k by end of 2022, or early 2023.
> — Tim Draper (@TimDraper) __January 11, 2021_


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## sags

Interesting that threads are now popping up with people complaining they can't log in to sell their coins or make cash withdrawals on some exchanges.

Here is a thread on Coinbase. Kraken and others are also mentioned.









r/CoinBase


r/CoinBase: Welcome to r/Coinbase!




www.reddit.com


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## james4beach

Rusty O'Toole said:


> You say you paid $300 "a few years ago" and now your position is worth $1000 or a 233.33% gain. How does that compare to your other investments? If Bitcoin was beating everything else by a wide margin I think I would be adding to my position not lightening up. I wouldn't sell until it started to drop.


It's certainly a good gain. But the difference vs my other speculations is that I think BTC is fundamentally worthless, at its core.

I could have similarly bought $300 of some random penny stock a few years ago and seen a big gain. Does that make it a good investment? No.

BTC is also about 100x more volatile than my typical investments. Even if I believed in the long term prospects of it, the fact it's 100x more volatile would also require it to be a much smaller position than other things.


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## nathan79

sags said:


> Here is a conspiracy theory.......from a well known bitcoin promoter.


The first half of the tweet is partially true, "banks don't like Bitcoin"... but the part about manipulation is laughable.


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## james4beach

Even though *I don't believe this*, let's assume for a moment that BTC does have fundamental value and will be a viable long-term investment. You might ask: how large should the position be in your portfolio?

I'll show the risk weighting method that Ray Dalio & Bridgewater use in their "risk parity" method. First one looks at the standard deviation of the asset classes. I got these from Portfolio Visualizer
SD 8% for bonds
SD 16% for stocks
SD 20% for gold
SD 81% for bitcoin ... 10x the risk of bonds

Based on this, one can now figure out the asset class weights which equalizes their volatility levels. Here's the result I calculated. Note that this was numerically calculated based on "risk parity" portfolio design:


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## Rusty O'Toole

james4beach said:


> It's certainly a good gain. But the difference vs my other speculations is that I think BTC is fundamentally worthless, at its core.
> 
> I could have similarly bought $300 of some random penny stock a few years ago and seen a big gain. Does that make it a good investment? No.
> 
> BTC is also about 100x more volatile than my typical investments. Even if I believed in the long term prospects of it, the fact it's 100x more volatile would also require it to be a much smaller position than other things.


When the paddy wagon comes everyone goes, good or bad. Fundamentally worthless is my opinion of stocks. Not literally but the market is overbought by any rational measure and overdue for a correction. When the next bear hits I don't want to be long stocks. That is why I trade.


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## MrBlackhill

I've read on a Radio-Canada (in French) that each cryptocurrency transaction must be listed because each transaction is taxable.









Vous avez bien profité des bitcoins? Le fisc vous attend!


L’ARC veut serrer la vis à ceux qui profitent de l’absence de vigie dans les échanges de cryptomonnaies.



ici.radio-canada.ca


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> I've read on a Radio-Canada (in French) that each cryptocurrency transaction must be listed because each transaction is taxable.


Well yeah, these are securities transactions in a non registered account. You have to track your ACB and report capital gains and losses.


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> Well yeah, these are securities transactions in a non registered account. You have to track your ACB and report capital gains and losses.


I just guess that some people will take a hit by the CRA if they didn't do their homeworks properly during this bubble.

I know that's the same thing with any holdings in non-registered accounts, but I guess some people have basic investments where all those homeworks are done for them, but then they start buying cryptocurrencies for fun without tracking their transactions.


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## m3s

james4beach said:


> Even though *I don't believe this*, let's assume for a moment that BTC does have fundamental value and will be a viable long-term investment. You might ask: how large should the position be in your portfolio?


What is the fundamental value of gold?

I'm not a fan of BTC or Gold. Both are just stores of value based on scarcity. Neither provide any real utility

Newer blockchains can provide a lot of utility though


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## m3s

sags said:


> Interesting that threads are now popping up with people complaining they can't log in to sell their coins or make cash withdrawals on some exchanges.
> 
> Here is a thread on Coinbase. Kraken and others are also mentioned.


The exchanges get overloaded just like in 2017. Google searches for crypto are spiking higher than 2017 right now

I recently opened a Kraken account because the fees appear lower than Coinbase. They locked my account when my IP address changed. After I submitted a form they locked withdrawals for a period. This is fine imo. I now have FIDO U2F setup with a hardware wallet which is far more secure than any Canadian brokerage/bank

I noticed Coinbase had issues a few times this year like in March (but so did Questrade and many other brokerages!)


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## MrMatt

Crypto tax laws are confusing.

Lets say I convert some CDN to USD, I then buy something. I pay and claim no gains on the currency conversion
Lets say I convert come BTC to LTC, I then buy something, I should still pay or claim no gains on the conversion.
If I move come currency from one wallet I own to another, no taxable transaction has taken place IMO.


If you consider crypto a currency 
If I shuffle it back and forth and make a gain, I have to claim it as a capital gain.




__





Foreign currencies - Canada.ca


Foreign currencies




www.canada.ca





Myself I have full records for the amount paid, and I haven't sold, so I don't have anything to claim yet.


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## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Crypto tax laws are confusing.
> 
> Lets say I convert some CDN to USD, I then buy something. I pay and claim no gains on the currency conversion
> Lets say I convert come BTC to LTC, I then buy something, I should still pay or claim no gains on the conversion.
> If I move come currency from one wallet I own to another, no taxable transaction has taken place IMO.
> 
> 
> If you consider crypto a currency
> If I shuffle it back and forth and make a gain, I have to claim it as a capital gain.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Foreign currencies - Canada.ca
> 
> 
> Foreign currencies
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.canada.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Myself I have full records for the amount paid, and I haven't sold, so I don't have anything to claim yet.


Exactly, I think that's where it becomes tricky. Not sure where cryptocurrencies stand.


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## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Exactly, I think that's where it becomes tricky. Not sure where cryptocurrencies stand.


See the taxation post, very informative, but clearly out of date as it links to archived content.


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## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Exactly, I think that's where it becomes tricky. Not sure where cryptocurrencies stand.


CRA seems to consider them a commodity or a barter like the IRS does


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## sags

Gold has considerable intrinsic value. It is used globally in jewellery, electronics, dentistry, furniture and art. It is highly valued in many cultures.

Where is the intrinsic value in a bitcoin ?

The price volatility makes it useless as a currency or use in contracts.

Let's say for example a person buys a $400,000 car for 10 bitcoins that are valued at $40,000 each today.

They put a down payment down of 1 bitcoin and come back in 3 days after the dealer preps the car to pay the 9 bitcoin balance.

But let's say, the value of a bitcoin went up to $50,000 a bitcoin or down to $30,000 a bitcoin......does the buyer now pay $500,000 for a $400,000 vehicle or $310,000 for a $400,000 vehicle ?

Unless bitcoins have a stable price.........they are of no use in the business world


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## sags

Bitcoins are deemed "scarce" because of the 21 million coins mined cap.

What if the huge mining farms decide they don't want to stop mining bitcoins if they are worth say..........$100,000 each ?

The theory is that the decentralized individual miners won't support it, but I suspect the rise in difficulty will blow them out long before the last coins are mined.

The mining farms will be the only ones mining the last coins, and they may decide to add another 10 million coins and take over all transaction verification.

There is no regulation to stop them from doing so.


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> Bitcoins are deemed "scarce" because of the 21 million coins mined cap.
> 
> What if the huge mining farms decide they don't want to stop mining bitcoins if they are worth say..........$100,000 each ?
> 
> The theory is that the decentralized individual miners won't support it, but I suspect the rise in difficulty will blow them out long before the last coins are mined.
> 
> The mining farms will be the only ones mining the last coins, and they may decide to add another 10 million coins and take over all transaction verification.
> 
> There is no regulation to stop them from doing so.


We'll see in 120 years. at which point the state of technology will be very different, just as it was 120 years ago.

No regulation from stopping them, however if they decide to change the protocol, all that will happen is bitcoin will split, as it has many times already
We will have Bitcoin-Classic and Bitcoin-Mo-Mining, and people can evaluate them however they want.


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## nathan79

MrMatt said:


> We'll see in 120 years. at which point the state of technology will be very different, just as it was 120 years ago.
> 
> No regulation from stopping them, however if they decide to change the protocol, all that will happen is bitcoin will split, as it has many times already
> We will have Bitcoin-Classic and Bitcoin-Mo-Mining, and people can evaluate them however they want.


Exactly. Miners can decide to break the consensus rules, but the rest of the network will simply reject those blocks as invalid. Why would the rest of the network support the "Mo-Mining" coin, which is no longer limited in supply? In fact, I can't even see miners supporting it for very long because it's guaranteed to lose value as it's less scare than "Bitcoin-Classic". Don't forget that miners also make money from transaction fees, which will be mainly on the Bitcoin-Classic chain. The Mo-Mining coin might attract a small following, but it would suffer from diminishing value and lack of transactions, just as happened to Bitcoin Cash a few years ago.


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## MrMatt

nathan79 said:


> Exactly. Miners can decide to break the consensus rules, but the rest of the network will simply reject those blocks as invalid. Why would the rest of the network support the "Mo-Mining" coin, which is no longer limited in supply? In fact, I can't even see miners supporting it for very long because it's guaranteed to lose value as it's less scare than "Bitcoin-Classic". Don't forget that miners also make money from transaction fees, which will be mainly on the Bitcoin-Classic chain. The Mo-Mining coin might attract a small following, but it would suffer from diminishing value and lack of transactions, just as happened to Bitcoin Cash a few years ago.


However the converse is true, if it was seen as a GOOD IDEA, it will take on the value.
ETC vs ETH


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## sags

Reading about a guy who has 7,000 bitcoins (worth $250 million today) locked up in some kind of hardware wallet that he has been unable to access for years (it won't recognize his password and he only has 2 tries left out of 10) jarred my memory that I did have an old computer hooked up with a mining program way back when.

I can't even remember the website involved (group mining company I think) and have no idea if I had earned any bitcoins. I eventually got bored because the bitcoins weren't worth much and my computer was continually churning away, so I stopped the program and likely deleted it.

The computer is still in the basement but it became unstable and I replaced it. I would need to hook up a monitor (I have an all in one desktop now) and check it out.

My question is........what would I look for in the files if I can access the hard drive in it ? Does bitcoin reward save to a file or something ?

I doubt I would be so lucky, but my curiosity is piqued now. 

Can I hook the old computer (with no monitor) up to the all in one computer so I can see the contents ?


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## sags

Hmmm...........maybe it was this mining pool as it was around that time......https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Slush_Pool

It says that distributions were "sent out" when it reached a pre-set value. What does that mean........an email or cheque in the mail ?


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## nathan79

sags said:


> Hmmm...........maybe it was this mining pool as it was around that time......https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Slush_Pool
> 
> It says that distributions were "sent out" when it reached a pre-set value. What does that mean........an email or cheque in the mail ?


I also used Slush Pool for a while. You would have had a wallet address, to which the rewards were sent once they reached a threshold. It was every .01 BTC as I recall, back when I was into mining. Hopefully you had the wallet on your computer... search for a file called wallet.dat.

Also check your email to find records of where the payments were sent.


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## nathan79

sags said:


> Can I hook the old computer (with no monitor) up to the all in one computer so I can see the contents ?


If you can't turn on the computer you will need to remove the hard drive and connect it to your working computer. You can mount the hard drive inside the case if you have room (and the required cables) or you can use an external hard drive enclosure to connect it via USB.


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## james4beach

sags said:


> Reading about a guy who has 7,000 bitcoins (worth $250 million today) locked up in some kind of hardware wallet that he has been unable to access for years (it won't recognize his password and he only has 2 tries left out of 10)


He has lost the $250 million. It's gone.



sags said:


> I can't even remember the website involved (group mining company I think) and have no idea if I had earned any bitcoins. I eventually got bored because the bitcoins weren't worth much and my computer was continually churning away, so I stopped the program and likely deleted it.
> 
> The computer is still in the basement but it became unstable and I replaced it. I would need to hook up a monitor (I have an all in one desktop now) and check it out.
> 
> My question is........what would I look for in the files if I can access the hard drive in it ? Does bitcoin reward save to a file or something ?


This is definitely worth looking into.

There is no easy answer to the questions you're asking. You're going to have to check your wallet and see if there are any BTC in it.


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## m3s

Sounds like SHOP is about to have a legal battle. The damage has already been done to Ledger's reputation



> Security Notice Dear client,
> 
> On December 23, 2020, Shopify, our e-commerce service provider, informed Ledger of an incident involving merchant data. Rogue agent(s) of their customer support team obtained Ledger customer transactional records in April and June 2020. This is related to the incident reported by Shopify in September 2020, which concerns more than 200 merchants, but until December 21, 2020, Shopify had not identified this affected Ledger as well.
> 
> We were able to examine the stolen data together with a third party forensic firm to identify the impacted customers.
> 
> We regret to inform you that you are part of the customers whose detailed personal information was stolen by Shopify rogue agent(s). Specifically, your name and surname, detail of product(s) ordered, phone number and your postal address were exposed.
> 
> We notified the French Data Protection Authority on December 26, 2020. We are continuing to work with Shopify and law enforcement on the case; an investigation is already underway, led by the FBI and the RCMP. Ledger also reported the events to the French Public Prosecutor and filed a complaint against the rogue agent(s).
> 
> Thefts and attacks such as this cannot go uninvestigated or unprosecuted. We continue to work with law enforcement as well as private investigators on these cases, and we are adding more firepower by hiring additional private investigation capacity, adding experience and approaches to finding those responsible for these data thefts.
> 
> FINALLY, keeping you secure is our reason for existing. We will soon release a technical solution that will remove the 24 words as the single pillar of the security of our hardware wallets and will open the door to funds insurance.
> 
> If you would like more detail on the many steps we are taking to prevent such incidents in the future, please read this blog post.
> 
> Sincerely, Pascal Gauthier Ledger CEO


There's a lot of very angry Ledger customers who had their names/address/email leaked. This is why a PO Box and burner email is a good idea.


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## m3s

sags said:


> My question is........what would I look for in the files if I can access the hard drive in it ? Does bitcoin reward save to a file or something ?


Your balance is recorded to an address on the blockchain. Every blockchain node records and verifies all the transactions.

Your old computer is worthless without a seed phrase to access the wallet. You can restore/control your wallet from any other computer.


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## nathan79

m3s said:


> Your balance is recorded to an address on the blockchain. Every blockchain node records and verifies all the transactions.
> 
> Your old computer is worthless without a seed phrase to access the wallet. You can restore/control your wallet from any other computer.


He may not even need a seed phrase... the wallet.dat file may be completely unencrypted, which was fairly common in those days. If there is no wallet.dat, he may have saved the private key to a plain text file. A lot of people didn't bother with encryption in those early days, because anything less than a few hundred Bitcoins wasn't worth a great deal.


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## sags

I will give it a go for an unencrypted data file wallet, but I don't have any password to open one.

Maybe I am setting myself up for a disappointment or a worse disappointment. First nothing is there and worse........something is there but I can't open it.


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