# Enbridge (ENB.TO)



## Jungle

Another solid dividend increase today, 15% starting in March. Stock up 2.52% on this. They are forecasting annual 10% earnings growth for at least the next three years. 

We finally bought during the August dip. I always watched others buy this company over the last few years, so congratulations to those who held over the years.. the returns are fantastic!


The P/E of 27 might not look too bad, when they are stable and growing. Would you buy more at this price? Do you think this will _really_ drop down, to catch another dip?


----------



## P_I

I would think that a P/E of 27 would be more likely given to fast growing company, like a tech company. For a company growing EPS at 10%/year that is a lofty valuation IMHO. Last time I ran the numbers (back in Feb. 2010), over the past 10 years, the average high P/E was 20.1. 

What happens to the price if valuations contract to those levels? Is Enbridge benefiting from those who are reaching for yield? Dividend stocks are very popular these days, I'd question if you want to move with or against the herd.

My $0.02


----------



## doctrine

I bought back in March. I was going to buy more in Aug/Sep, but that transaction went to Fortis instead. Which is up 10% itself, but not as much as ENB. I would definitely consider adding more but I'd like to see it at a 3.5% dividend yield. Even with the increase, it's still only 3.15%. 

It really is highly priced; a P/E of 27 with 10% earnings growth means you're looking at over 10 years of zero capital gains just to get to a P/E of 10. 

Therefore, would predict little capital gains upside, but probably no real downside risk as well. Probably why its doing so well.


----------



## scomac

doctrine said:


> It really is highly priced; a P/E of 27 with 10% earnings growth means you're looking at over 10 years of zero capital gains just to get to a P/E of 10.
> 
> Therefore, would predict little capital gains upside, but probably no real downside risk as well. Probably why its doing so well.


So what you're really saying is that it's OK to take on equity risk for a 3% return while folks are certain that a similar return from long bonds is certain to be a terrible alternative.


----------



## warp

I have been looking at Enbridge for quite a long time, and could never bring myself to buy it because it just always seemed too expensive, ( and the div yield seemed low too).

That being said.....it just keeps going up and up and up, and has had a great run, so it bothers me that I never bought it.

I have tried to come to a logical reason why this is, amd why money keeps flowing into the stock, and if there is something I am missing with Enbridge, but I can't come up with a reasonable explanation. I just assume that people just WANT to own it! This includes mutual funds, money managers and institutional holders.

I still say that at a p/e of 27 it indeed is still too expensive for me, even with a 10% growth rate. Of course it will probably be up 15% + by this time next year , and I will again be mad at myself !

I will say that the company had better execute, because if they do miss, I think there will be a lot of profit taking and selling, and the price might get back to their normal p/e range.......

If only I had a crystal ball!


----------



## Assetologist

Warp, the only aspect of investment that a small investor can control is what and when to buy - I would wait until ENB goes on sale.


----------



## Cal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ividend-a-pipeline-to-profits/article2270029/


----------



## warp

Assetologist said:


> Warp, the only aspect of investment that a small investor can control is what and when to buy - I would wait until ENB goes on sale.


Well, therein lies the problem:

Everyone seems to agree that if not overpriced, Enbribge is at least pretty pricey.
Yet it never seems to come down! I'd love for ENB to "go on sale" as you put it: just hasnt happened lately.

I have come close to holding my nose and just buying ENB at market, but that's hardly an investment plan.

That being said, I own just about every other pipeline stock in Canada, and have done very well with them, both with income and gains, so perhaps I should just be happy with that.

Thanks for your thoughts though, and thanks to CAL for that interesting Globe link.....I was having coffee with a friend yesterday, and he mentioned that exact article about Enbridge, but I hadn't seen it myself.


----------



## Jungle

yea 350% + return over 10 years is... amazing! 
The only way to get in now is when we have these flash sell offs, when markets dip 500 points on one day. This is how I got ENB in August. Like others I just can't buy at these prices.


----------



## HaroldCrump

One of the reasons for the perceived strength of pipelines and utilities is the yield play.
With interest rates so low, many investors see pipelines and utilities like these as the safe havens with yield to boot.
Which is why these guys have held their ground through all the carnage this year.
It'd be interesting to watch their valuation in higher interest rate environment.

But, being invested in this space myself (not ENB though), I'm not complaining.


----------



## doctrine

ENB only rose above $30 consistently as of March 2011. It traded below $29 in August. It will get cheaper at some point.. probably when other stocks start doing well, as ENB is not likely to follow a wider market increase. If share price disappoints, it could quickly hit $26-28 and I will be a buyer again. If not, I'm happy with my gains so far.


----------



## warp

HaroldCrump said:


> One of the reasons for the perceived strength of pipelines and utilities is the yield play.
> With interest rates so low, many investors see pipelines and utilities like these as the safe havens with yield to boot.
> Which is why these guys have held their ground through all the carnage this year.
> It'd be interesting to watch their valuation in higher interest rate environment.
> 
> But, being invested in this space myself (not ENB though), I'm not complaining.


There is no doubt that "pipelines and utilities" have done well partly because of this low interest rate environment.

It doesn't hurt that they are good income stocks, and pretty good sleep-well-at-night stocks to boot.

I have been waiting for interest rates to rise for several years, and it hasn't happened. Govts... esp the US govt have been keeping interest rates artificially low through their intervention for political reasons, and Canada has followed. 

By doing so they have hurt income oriented fixed income investors, and esp seniors looking for a safe return. They are also pushing normally conservative leaning investors further and further along the risk curve.

Logic, ( and past history ), dictates that inflation must follow this course of action sooner or later.

I also have some concern about what will happen to these stocks when interest rates do finally rise..........but I'm not selling my shares.
Are you??


----------



## dubmac

sold 1/2 my position in TRP & looking to buy ENB when it's cheaper - I agree that (in a yr or so) int rates will rise, and some of these pipeline/utility stocks will likely drop. The big question is ...when? Til then, I'm looking at ZRE and ZUB.


----------



## HaroldCrump

warp said:


> I have been waiting for interest rates to rise for several years, and it hasn't happened. Govts... esp the US govt have been keeping interest rates artificially low through their intervention for political reasons, and Canada has followed.
> 
> By doing so they have hurt income oriented fixed income investors, and esp seniors looking for a safe return. They are also pushing normally conservative leaning investors further and further along the risk curve.


Agreed, artificially low interest rates are creating many imbalances in the system, this is just one of many.


> Logic, ( and past history ), dictates that inflation must follow this course of action sooner or later.


Inflation is already here, just look around you.
It is not the fear of inflation that stops the govt. from raising rates - it's the fear of deflation, esp. in a key industry (RE).



> I also have some concern about what will happen to these stocks when interest rates do finally rise..........but I'm not selling my shares.
> Are you??


Nope, not yet.
Low interest rates are not the only thing helping stocks like these.
Also, low interest rates are benefitting REITs.
I haven't sold any of my holdings in that space either.


----------



## cdnpennystocks

I've been waiting for MONTHS for a correction in this one but it just keeps going up. I invested 10% of what I wanted, but still have 90% to put in. Hopefully there is a bit of a dip soon.


----------



## zylon

"An open letter from the Honourable Joe Oliver, Minister of Natural Resources, on Canada’s commitment to diversify our energy markets and the need to further streamline the regulatory process in order to advance Canada’s national economic interest."

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/01/09/open-letter-radicals-threaten-resource-development/


----------



## Ethan

zylon said:


> "An open letter from the Honourable Joe Oliver, Minister of Natural Resources, on Canada’s commitment to diversify our energy markets and the need to further streamline the regulatory process in order to advance Canada’s national economic interest."
> 
> http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/01/09/open-letter-radicals-threaten-resource-development/


I hadn't heard of Joe Oliver before yesterday, but I like the man already.

I bought into Enbridge last October. I am still bullish on ENB long-term so I am hanging onto my shares, but it has become really expensive. A PE ratio of 28 for a pipeline is very high. It seems that with bond yields near 0, yield hungry investors turned to the safety of pipelines.


----------



## doctrine

Here's to hoping that negative publicity in these hearings will drive ENB's stock down 10% perhaps  Would really like to see it at $30 but would probably add to my position at less than $33


----------



## Toronto.gal

Ethan said:


> I hadn't heard of Joe Oliver before yesterday, but I like the man already.


I like him too; he represents my electoral district. 

A quiz, lol.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...er-how-many-died-building-cpr/article2297410/


----------



## somecanuck

Any news on Enbridge? My wife bought us some shares at $24.69. It's shocking to open my assets spreadsheet and see it up by 53.88% since then.


----------



## Argonaut

No news is good news for a pipeline. Keep the oil and the cash flowing. Northern Gateway won't be under construction until 2014 if it jumps through all the hoops.

http://www.northerngateway.ca/project-details/timeline/


----------



## doctrine

A stock that's the perfect definition of a "hold". It's hard to buy, but who really wants to sell? I wish I had more shares, but only at a lower price...


----------



## gibor365

Indeed  How you can "chase yield" as the yield even less than 3%


----------



## Jungle

I can't believe it ran to $39. This stock was in teens/twenties not to long ago.


----------



## Cal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-to-expand-in-oil-rich-bakken/article2353191/


----------



## Sampson

I think Pat Daniel stepping down is the more interesting news. He has done the company and shareholders extremely well over 11 years.


----------



## Vitalogy80

I'd love to buy some, but a PE of 30 with EPS stagnant over the past year, this seems really expensive to me. Plus it seems like they've got a ton of debt...I don't see why the PE is so high.


----------



## Jungle

Anticipation of new and expanding pipeline projects = more money.


----------



## Cal

I don't like the initial look at the P/E either, but once a pipeline is up and running, there is not alot of capital for the company to invest to keep it running.


----------



## Cal

I don't like the P/E either, but once a pipeline is running at capacity, it needs very little investment from the company to maintain.


----------



## zylon

*enb.to*

Ex Dividend date: Monday Aug 13th

TMX quote

Canadian Insider ENB

TSINetwork Rating: Above Average


----------



## blin10

I wanted to buy around $28 and didn't, now this thing at 40, ouch


----------



## Toronto.gal

Happy to have bought in 2009 & still holding! Bought at the same time as TRP & still holding that one as well, and dripping!


----------



## Cal

Yes, ENB has been an absolute rock star since then haven't they. I picked up some more units as the price dropped below $40 this week.


----------



## Compounding1

Toronto.gal said:


> Happy to have bought in 2009 & still holding! Bought at the same time as TRP & still holding that one as well, and dripping!


Same here! Doubled my money 

I'm thinking of putting more in soon. It looks like it could dip to $37 mark today. I might try to wait til the $36 range and jump in then. Anyone else keeping their eye on this one?


----------



## Toronto.gal

I'm not buying anything for holding purposes that has not taken a beating of a few % points at least.

I DRIP ENB with the transfer agent, so basically I just average up with dividends and with occasional cash purchases [though I do take advantage of price drops via trading].


----------



## Cal

Cal said:


> Yes, ENB has been an absolute rock star since then haven't they. I picked up some more units as the price dropped below $40 this week.


I think I jinxed ENB.


----------



## doctrine

I like ENB but I sold my small position at $40. (had bought at $27). I was getting uncomfortable at $35 but it shot up past $40 so quick I didn't have time to sell.


----------



## Cal

The price has floated under $40 for a little bit now, it looks like you sold at a good time, for a short term play. I am now starting to think of picking some more up long term, as I expect a 5% dividend in crease to be announced in December. And share price to appreciate a little over the next 2 months.

ENB site - 'The annualized dividend is currently $1.13 per share, and has been increased every year since 1996. In fact, it has grown 15% per year for each of the last 3 years. Enbridge's target dividend payout is between 60 to 70 per cent of earnings'

Due to the current payout ratio I am not expecting a 15% increase. But a 5% increase would keep the increase ahead of inflation.


----------



## Ethan

Cal said:


> The price has floated under $40 for a little bit now, it looks like you sold at a good time, for a short term play. I am now starting to think of picking some more up long term, as I expect a 5% dividend in crease to be announced in December. And share price to appreciate a little over the next 2 months.
> 
> ENB site - 'The annualized dividend is currently $1.13 per share, and has been increased every year since 1996. In fact, it has grown 15% per year for each of the last 3 years. Enbridge's target dividend payout is between 60 to 70 per cent of earnings'
> 
> Due to the current payout ratio I am not expecting a 15% increase. But a 5% increase would keep the increase ahead of inflation.


Enbridge has basic EPS of $0.36 in the first 2 quarters of 2012, against dividends of $0.565 
On a cash basis, through 2 quarters they have operating cash flows of $1,632 million against capital expenditures of $2,059 million and dividends of $339 million. I don't think there is a business case for raising the dividend, I hope they don't raise just to keep a meaningless streak intact.


----------



## doctrine

I agree with Ethan. Those reasons are partially why I sold out at $40.


----------



## GOB

Can anyone enlighten me on why everyone still seems to love this stock? My cursory analysis tells me not to touch it with a 10-foot pole. P/E nearing 50, PEG of 2, shaky financials which Ethan described and their hugely controversial pipeline project. It just doesn't seem like a set it and forget safe DRIP stock like many are insinuating. I see a lot of potential downside.

Congrats to everyone who got in early and enjoyed the run-up but I don't see a great future ahead. Just my opinion.


----------



## arc

@GOB, you have to compare the fundamentals to stocks in the same sector. Simply saying that P/E is 50 means nothing. You have to realize that a P/E of 50 is a perfectly fine for a pipeline company (in fact it's the average). ENB is forming a nice base in the 38-39 range and has a huge potential for breakout within the next 3 months.


----------



## GOB

arc said:


> @GOB, you have to compare the fundamentals to stocks in the same sector. Simply saying that P/E is 50 means nothing. You have to realize that a P/E of 50 is a perfectly fine for a pipeline company (in fact it's the average). ENB is forming a nice base in the 38-39 range and has a huge potential for breakout within the next 3 months.


Is it though? TRP is 23 and IPL is 19, just as a quick comparison. The PEG shows that the stock isn't really priced attractively based on their growth expectations. 

It's also possible that an entire sector is overvalued and sells off, and this may be the case with pipelines. Comparing within the sector may allow you to choose the best stock of the sector, but that may not help when the entire sector sees funds moving out of it. What are your reasons for believing ENB is the best stock in their sector? Again, I've just done cursory research so I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm still curious why this stock is loved so much at these levels.


----------



## doctrine

Well I'm not so sure its loved. They tried to put out an equity issue at $41 and the market balked pretty hard and it was undersold. Any P/E over 20 deserves scrutiny - I've sold off both ENB and TRP for valuation reasons and currently the only utility I'm still holding is Fortis - their P/E is about 18-19.


----------



## Ethan

I sold out of Enbridge this morning after 2 years of ownership. My split adjusted cost base was $27.30 so I had a good run. The problem for me with Enbridge is the valuation as I alluded to in an earlier post. I'm also concerned that the growth prospects for large pipeline companies (ENB and TRP) is being restriced by politics and environmentalists. Even if Northern Gateway or Keystone XL go through, costs will be higher than ever before due to the amount of scrutiny these companies now face.

For that reason I decided to buy a pipeline well loved by this board, IPL.un. It is a smaller pipeline, with a PE under 20 and a payout ratio of less than 100%. IPL.un's expansion projects barely get mentioned in the media, they aren't the target of environmental groups and the regulatory review proces is much less stringent.

It's too bad that Enbridge and TransCanada are having such difficulties building further pipelines. I am of the opinion they would be a great benefit to our country, reducing the bottleneck at Cushing and diversifying our customer base will bring much higher prices for Canadian oil producers. Under these circumstances, I feel that better returns can be generated by the smaller pipelines that fly under the media and environmentalists radar.


----------



## Nemo2

Ethan said:


> For that reason I decided to buy a pipeline well loved by this board, IPL.un.


We've held IPL.UN since Feb 2009......paid $7.23.....thus far up 195.85%.......well loved indeed! :encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Ethan said:


> I feel that better returns can be generated by the smaller.....


I agree about better returns with smaller companies as this approach has worked very well for me, especially the last couple of years. However, not ready to part with either ENB/TRP, which I have been holding since late 09 [hope I won't regret my decision].


----------



## Jungle

Enbridge has been upgraded to outperform by a couple analysts (even at these levels! ).. the company says its growth could exceed 10% goal, over the next four years. 
Of course, this is already priced in. Stock is back up in the 40's on this. 
http://www.dailypolitical.com/finance/stock-market/enbridge-stock-rating-upgraded-by-ubs-ag-enb.htm
http://www.stockhouse.com/[email protected]

Bring on those 15% dividend increases!


----------



## Cal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...t-12-per-cent-a-year-enbridge/article4585643/

This article mentions that they now expect a 12% increase in earnings....But as Ethan mentioned, I don't expect the same for the next dividend increase. I do think that ENB feels their annual dividend increases are not meaningless, which is part of why I continue to hold them.

Although I am not in any way stating that it is a single horse race, as mentioned there are a few good options out there for this sector.


----------



## Cal

They did end up making the 12% dividend increase. It will start with the March 1 payout.

http://www.enbridge.com/MediaCentre/News.aspx?yearTab=en2012&id=1702166


----------



## marina628

I am up 42.45% on my ENB as of today's date ,helps out when you have CNQ and xcs down 15- 25%%+ lol


----------



## Canuck

I'm up 42.92%


----------



## doctrine

The big problem I have with ENB is that they're numbers aren't as good as they look.. if you take their forward P/E at face value, it's 23, but in the last 3 quarters, they've only actually earned $0.60 which averaged over 3 months is a trailing P/E of 51.8. Makes me very concerned that a stock with such a high P/E is not performing well on the earnings front. Good luck


----------



## leeder

I have all but given up looking at the valuation of ENB. I'll just stick to looking at the fundamentals on this one. Like others, this is one of my better performing stocks. I won't add to my current positions on this one, but definitely a long-term hold!


----------



## Nemo2

Canuck said:


> I'm up 42.92%





marina628 said:


> I am up 42.45% on my ENB as of today's datel


Can anyone play? Bought ours Dec 09/08, they split 2 for 1 on May 20/11, and we're up 110.54% on the original purchase price...plus we've been getting a nice div. :encouragement:


----------



## Jungle

One anaylsits on BNN made a good point: try to build a pipeline company of this size from scratch and build its network through North America. Not duplicated very easily. 

K since everyone is posting numbers, up 45% total return over 1 year 4 months. Congrats to all holders, especially those longer then two years. (returns are min doubles as NEMO posted!)


----------



## PuckiTwo

Nemo2 said:


> Can anyone play? Bought ours Dec 09/08, they split 2 for 1 on May 20/11, and we're up 110.54% on the original purchase price...plus we've been getting a nice div. :encouragement:


Nemo, how is this: dec 2/08 +116.91%. I shouldn't boast and give credit to FA at that time Pookee


----------



## My Own Advisor

Thanks again ENB


----------



## Nemo2

PuckiTwo said:


> Nemo, how is this: dec 2/08 +116.91%. I shouldn't boast and give credit to FA at that time Pookee


Very nice!


----------



## marina628

I remember that split day because it was my first stock split experience and for some reason my $40,000 became $80,000 for about 2-3 hours on TD until the DB refreshed again and fixed it lol.


----------



## Jungle

ENB stock has really outperformed TRP. 1,3,5,10 year pick one.


----------



## zylon

Debate: Greenpeace vs. Marin Katusa on pipeline 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZJeW14fzZY

Marin's statistic at 4:30 minutes is astonishing; can that be true?



> Rex and I got along quite well, and we both agreed to stay in touch and to discuss further aspects of the "Sensible Solution." All of that discussion will be published, and the main points from both sides will be provided in the Casey publications in the months to come. ~Marin Katusa
> 
> http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/greenpeace-vs-marin-katusa#Enjoy


----------



## sags

It seems the likelihood of a pipeline to the west coast, boils down to one key factor.

Do the people of BC want to accept the risk to their pristine coastline..........so that Alberta has a source for oil?

For those who enjoy the BC lifestyle..........the answer is probably..........no.

One question I wonder about.............

Since the Free Trade Agreement with the US guarantees the US can purchase oil at the same price that Canadians pay for it........would an increase to the cost for US consumers to world prices...............also necessitate a similar higher price for Canadians?

The oil companies would benefit.............but would Canadians?


----------



## HaroldCrump

sags said:


> It seems the likelihood of a pipeline to the west coast, boils down to one key factor.
> Do the people of BC want to accept the risk to their pristine coastline..........so that Alberta has a source for oil?


It is not as simple as that.
The price that Canada obtains for its oil has huge, huge ramifications for the entire country.
It is not just an Alberta thing - it impacts the financial state of the entire country.

For some recent numbers, see:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ose-tabs-on-the-oil-price-gap/article7652969/

It is easy to write off this as an "east vs. west" thing or an "Alberta thing", but it's not.

After all, someone's gotta pay for all the socialist welfare programs and the auto bailouts, such as the one announced today worth another $34M
http://www.globalnews.ca/toyota+lex...from+ontario+and+ottawa/6442794221/story.html


----------



## HaroldCrump

Any plans of pipelines through BC are essentially DOA.

*For now, pipelines to B.C. remain mostly pipedreams*
_In fact, it is difficult to find anyone in the highest reaches of the B.C. government who doesn’t feel the same way._

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...-likely-to-stay-a-pipe-dream/article14619186/


----------



## Synergy

I was thinking of picking up some ENB if it drops below $40. Anyone think this would be a decent entry point for a long term hold (10+ yrs)? Or would something smaller and a little less expensive like PPL be a better option? Already holding IPL.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I'm trying to hold all of them. They are the gateways out of Alberta.


----------



## Sampson

The more delays etc, the more likely rail is going to be a major factor. Very interesting how regulators might influence this because of the recent tragedy in Lac-Magantic.

I mean CN already has a line out to Kitimat.


----------



## doctrine

I don't like any pipeline companies because of the high P/Es. I can buy the banks at a P/E of 10-12, and while they have risks, so does Enbridge, except Enbridge has a P/E of 54. If you think a 12 month trailing P/E of 54 is high, if you calculate based on the 12 months preceding that (i.e. into 2011), it's even worse: 79. They say by 2017-18 that earnings will pick up, but I don't know if I want to wait that long. There could easily be a market crash, and then maybe shares will be $25 or less. Or not, in which case I'm sure I can find another investment. You don't have to have a pipeline in your portfolio. To answer Synergy's question, I think $25, not $40, is a "great" entry point. $40 might be okay, but earnings aren't there right now.


----------



## My Own Advisor

They will likely raise their dividend (again) this winter doctrine. 

I do see what you are saying, re: P/E.


----------



## Eder

Forward PE is a significant indicator ... 20.3 for ENB...not unreasonable but 18 would be better


----------



## Cal

I believe they normally announce the dividend increase on Dec. 1st.


----------



## Cal

^ hopefully this Friday.

I have been big on ENB, but thought I would post this as devils advocate: 
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1744072-enbridge-is-not-a-buffett-quality-dividend-stock


----------



## Eder

11% increase 4 hours ago.


----------



## Synergy

^ Today -


> Canada's largest pipeline operator, said on Wednesday 2013 earnings would be at the low end of its target of C$1.74 to C$1.90 per share, but boosted its dividend by 11 percent.


I can't seem to pull the trigger on ENB at these levels - hoping for a better entry point at some point.

Edit - slow on the draw! - Eder replied first.


----------



## marina628

I sold a bunch when I was up 60% on this but still have a profit of 48.8% on what i hold.I only sold 17.5% of my stock value to rebalance not because I didn't like to hold it.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Lovin' the dividend increase. Predictable  See my comment above.


----------



## Pvo

how does enbridge TSE defer from NYSE?
they stock haven't exactly aligned between the two exchanges lately... wondering why.


----------



## Canadian

The Canadian dollar is no longer at parity with USD. If you purchased USD and then bought ENB on the NYSE you would [likely] end up with the same amount of shares as if you invested the same amount in ENB on the TSE.


----------



## Cal

Doesn't look like the market thinks the Northern Gateway project will go ahead, based upon the share price the past few months.


----------



## doctrine

I doubt there is a lot of Northern Gateway in the share price, given even an optimistic assessment of full operations would be 2018-19. They are only trading about 3% off their all time high.


----------



## Jesse

Nice jump today on news of the $7B pipe project approval.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/enbr...nt-for-pipeline-replacement-program-1.1712641


----------



## leeder

Nice pop to the share price today for Enbridge. The Line 3 replacement program seems to be an important project. This company and its share price never ceases to amaze me.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Great news, but bad for buyers...


----------



## leeder

^ Isn't that always the case? One of my friends told me he bought ENB yesterday at $46.65. Haven't talked to him yet, but he should be a pretty happy fellow today.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

ENB having no trouble raising capital either - they bumped their planned issue of 8 million pref shares today to 11 millions shares on strong demand. Puts $275MM into the coffers.
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/enbridge-increases-size-of-preferred-share-offering-tsx-enb-1885294.htm


----------



## marina628

I bought more ENB today


----------



## Pluto

I don't own any enb right now, but it is in one of my watch lists, and it is the only one among many that is having an up day. It has a p/e of 26. Surely its long term growth is not 26. I'm curious about what is making it resilient in this wee downturn?


----------



## liquidfinance

Pluto said:


> I don't own any enb right now, but it is in one of my watch lists, and it is the only one among many that is having an up day. It has a p/e of 26. Surely its long term growth is not 26. I'm curious about what is making it resilient in this wee downturn?




Personally I wouldn't see the P/E as purely a growth metric. 

For sure it can give you a quick glance at how a company is valued but you can not determine a growth expectation from it. The stock may simply demand a higher premium because it is a solid business with a wide moat. Profitable. Recession proof. High barriers to entry. Strong Stable consistently increased dividends. Predictable cash flows.


----------



## Ethan

Northern Gateway oil pipeline approved by the federal government. Great news!

http://business.financialpost.com/2...il-pipeline-approved-tuesday/?__lsa=76f1-77c1


----------



## leeder

Expected event. Will only be a positive event if the pipeline actually gets built.


----------



## Pluto

And like the Alaska pipeline, it might be good for wild life. After the later was built the Caribou population went up, despite claims they would disappear. 

And speaking of disappearing, ENB with a p/e of 80? is likely to help some recent investors lose some capital.


----------



## Ethan

Pluto said:


> And speaking of disappearing, ENB with a p/e of 80? is likely to help some recent investors lose some capital.


I wouldn't think about investing in Enbridge at these prices. Getting the pipeline built would have huge spillover effects for the oil industry and other holdings of mine. It sounds like under a best case scenario this pipeline won't be active for at least 5 years. That is quite far into the future but the latest signs are encouraging.


----------



## Moneytoo

The Motley Fool's been recommending Enbridge as stock du jour for months (well - at least since March when I entered my e-mail address to learn what's in their opinion the best stock to invest in 2014 ), so was surprised to see this post today:
http://www.fool.ca/2014/06/18/3-reasons-to-sell-enbridge-even-after-northern-gateways-approval/

Wonder what those are: *2 energy plays better than Enbridge!*, but don't feel like entering my e-mail address again to find out lol


----------



## Synergy

Moneytoo said:


> Wonder what those are: *2 energy plays better than Enbridge!*, but don't feel like entering my e-mail address again to find out lol


2 Uranium plays: Cameco & UEX


----------



## My Own Advisor

Really? Better than ENB? I guess it depends on your timeline....


----------



## Synergy

My Own Advisor said:


> Really? Better than ENB? I guess it depends on your timeline....


I'm just the messenger, those 2 picks are from the Motley Fool's article provided within Moneytoo's post.


----------



## Moneytoo

Synergy said:


> I'm just the messenger, those 2 picks are from the Motley Fool's article provided within Moneytoo's post.


Old news as well - they advised them back in April: http://www.fool.ca/special-free-rep...ks-on-the-cusp-of-a-powerful-long-term-trend/ (and I think that was when I decided not to enter my email address anymore and then having to unsubscribe - 'cause their suggestions don't seem plausible even for a noob like me lol First Solar that I bought on my own is up 15% in a month )

But thank you for double-checking! =)


----------



## leeder

Yes, valuations are out to Mars on Enbridge. Yet this is a stock that keeps chugging along. They have plenty of pipeline projects, even though the Northern Gateway is the most publicized. They have increased their dividend for the past 18 years or so and their annual dividend growth rates are 10%+ for the past 10 years. This stock is as reliable as it comes for long-term investors. Certainly, companies like Cameco may do well in the short-run if news on uranium turns positive. But if I had to recommend a stock to invest for buy-and-hold investors today, I'm way more inclined to recommend ENB than CCO.


----------



## favelle75

Synergy said:


> 2 Uranium plays: Cameco & UEX


Funny, because Cameco has been getting hammered since the CEO said that Uranium prices would be in the crapper for up to 18 more months.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Synergy said:


> I'm just the messenger, those 2 picks are from the Motley Fool's article provided within Moneytoo's post.


Ya, I know...just surprised. Another reason to avoid recommendations of any kind.


----------



## Synergy

My Own Advisor said:


> Ya, I know...just surprised. Another reason to avoid recommendations of any kind.


That's why they call it Motley "Fool"!


----------



## Cents

Enbridge popped from about 50.75 to close at 51.09 on about 900,000+ shares right at the end of the day. I am still holding, but I see that one of the top picks from Patrick Horan, Principal, Agilith Capital on BNN is to short it. 
I don't have level II quotes. Does anybody know who did the buying and/or why?


----------



## Cal

I am not too concerned with day to day movements. Think long term, the gov't want this Northern Gateway to go through, there will be resistance along the way.


----------



## My Own Advisor

synergy said:


> that's why they call it motley "fool"!


lol


----------



## leeder

Excellent news for Enbridge investors! Dividend growth next year to a quarterly payout of $0.465 per share (from quarterly payout of $0.35/share in 2014). 33% increase!

http://enbridge.com/MediaCentre/News.aspx?yearTab=en2014&id=1902458


----------



## fatcat

leeder said:


> Excellent news for Enbridge investors! Dividend growth next year to a quarterly payout of $0.465 per share (from quarterly payout of $0.35/share in 2014). 33% increase!
> 
> http://enbridge.com/MediaCentre/News.aspx?yearTab=en2014&id=1902458


Is that explanation for the pop today ? Been thinking about buying more ... oh well ... Great to see ...


----------



## leeder

The news came after the market closed. The entire energy sector had a pop today. Enbridge went along the ride. Expecting Enbridge to go up to $60 share price very soon. Probably worth buying more, even though valuations always look stretched with this stock.


----------



## Butters

Up 17% before market opens


----------



## My Own Advisor

Love it. Another example to own pipelines and banks and a few other dividend studs in Canada. Index everything else


----------



## Toronto.gal

I have my shares with CST, and typically look at the prices on a quarterly basis when I receive my statements, but I looked today, and was more pleased with the 33% div. hike, than with the price increase as I DRIP my shares [last DRIP price = $53.41/price now nearing $60].


----------



## Jungle

Helps ease the pain from COS>


----------



## Siciliano698

wow what a jump, are they gonna spilt 2:1 like a few years back?


----------



## Canuck

Jungle said:


> Helps ease the pain from COS>


haha ya it's easing the pain a bit

I have TRP, ENF and ENB flying.... on the other hand my BTE,CPG, SGY, GEI .....


----------



## Toronto.gal

Siciliano698 said:


> wow what a jump, are they gonna spilt 2:1 like a few years back?


The split was only in 2011, so not that long ago. 

Prior to that, the 2:1 splits took place in 2005/1999, in the $40s to $60s, so maybe the next split will be in the $70s.


----------



## daddybigbucks

And TRP is riding ENB's coat-tails. 
TRP will have its day though.


----------



## JosephK

lol. Just by transferring their pipeline business to ENF they have managed to create 4.9B in value! Not that I'm complaining, but does anyone actually think this makes sense?


----------



## webber22

Analysts finally got it right, $65 price target was reached today at one point
http://business.financialpost.com/2...r-a-bigger-dividend-increase/?__lsa=d926-def3

However, they were downgraded to creditwatch negative today by S&P today after having their outlook set to negative back on Nov 21st by the same, and now placed under review by DBRS.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Credit...tch+Negative+by+S&P+(EPB)+(EEP)/10070967.html

I sold my shares today at $64 hoping to buy them back cheap before the Feb 12th dividend


----------



## warp

ENB has always been confusing for me.

I have always seen it as too "expensive", and have never bought it......and it has always moved higher, and I have always regretted not buying. This has gone on for years with me.

Kudos for you here, who were smarter than me and purchased ENB. It has been a great performer.


----------



## My Own Advisor

The way I see this stock and many others like in Canada, that have paid dividends for generations, just buy it, own enough of it to DRIP and don't look back. Index mostly everything else. CDN banks, pipelines, telcos have always found a way to make money and they likely always will.

Forget the entry point for the most part because at some point in the future, the entry point today is going to look rather cheap compared to 15+ years from now considering capital gains and reinvested dividends.


----------



## leeder

With the oil prices bringing the stock price down, I actually think it's trading at a fairly decent level.


----------



## leeder

I don't know about you guys, but during this whole oil price downfall, it's the midstream/infrastructure names, like Enbridge, Gibson Energy and Altagas, that are catching my eye. Although on valuation metrics, these names look expensive. But a lot of them have traded quite a bit below their highs. Anyone looking into these names?


----------



## Canadian

I've had my eye on Gibson since I sold it a couple months ago - looking to get back in at a lower price. I would like it to go lower first - a dividend cut might not be bad either.


----------



## leeder

I've owned Gibson Energy in the past as well. Definitely would like to get back in. I'd like to see them continue its current payout, if possible.


----------



## daddybigbucks

There is ALOT of insider trading for Gibson energy last few days.


----------



## gardner

Why did ENB drop 4 bucks this week? I suppose it's a buying op, but I don't see what the news was.


----------



## Getafix

I've been following ENB and will probably pick it up soon. I think it was due for a correction with all the safe money piling in ever since the oil stocks started to decline. If you look at FTS, BCE the same thing happened with them (i bought both and learned the lesson of buying a bit too early) went to a 52 week high then fell 7-8%.


----------



## spirit

We had about $40000 in a cash account and decided to top up some unclaimed TFSA room last month.....bought 20 of Enbridge and 20 of Telus for my husband and myself. I am trying really hard not to kick myself for buying too early.....and waiting to see if my price point looks like a genius decision in 15 years.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

spirit said:


> ...I am trying really hard not to kick myself for buying too early.....and waiting to see if my price point looks like a genius decision in 15 years.


 Try not to sweat it. I don't think you will have to wait anywhere near 15 yrs to feel that the growth in share value and dividends have been worth your purchase price.


----------



## Flash

Am I reading this right?

The TTM payout ratio is 687.5%? At the moment they are paying 700% more in dividends than they are earning?


----------



## Jungle

Anyone else looking at this? Enb getting slammed lately and increased dividend 14% today. Thinking about adding to position.


----------



## doctrine

All of the pipelines are dropping. ENB with a 4% yield. TRP has a 5% yield. PPL 6% and IPL 7%. They're actually closer to attractive prices, for once in 2-3 years. Just looking back, I sold my TRP back in Aug 2012 for $46, now it's at $41.60 with a higher yield. I'd say they're becoming reasonably valued, perhaps with a little more to fall. You could spread capital amongst a basket of them and probably do okay.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

doctrine said:


> All of the pipelines are dropping. ENB with a 4% yield. TRP has a 5% yield. PPL 6% and IPL 7%. They're actually closer to attractive prices, for once in 2-3 years. Just looking back, I sold my TRP back in Aug 2012 for $46, now it's at $41.60 with a higher yield. I'd say they're becoming reasonably valued, perhaps with a little more to fall. You could spread capital amongst a basket of them and probably do okay.


so much for pipelines being "toll roads" and impervious to the price of oil. whether or not the price of oil hinders their business they are getting sold off regardless. i would not be jumping in here trying to bottom fish because of high yields.
IPL just reported a great quarter and they are getting hit very hard. i think as long as the price of oil is struggling pipelines will struggle too. oil need to break out of its downtrend and hold it for awhile, while at the same time supply/demand imbalance corrects itself. until then you are risking getting your hands chopped off. 
ENB looks really interesting here. bold of them to raise dividend that much. i am going to take a quick look at it tonight. it would be insane to buy until OPEC meeting news conference reaction. i think it starts tomorrow at 8am but double check.
hope none of you are in KMI. mother of god.


----------



## AltaRed

It is not the price of oil that is the issue. It is reduced growth prospects for expanded shipping capacity. The pipes were priced to perfection with ambitious growth programs priced in. Hence the high P/E multiples. That is no longer the case.


----------



## My Own Advisor

On the subject of KMI, do we really see this company going under?
http://www.kindermorgan.com/pages/asset_map/default.aspx


----------



## donald

Imo it's investing behavior
Cwb reported today(down 7% from same quarter last year)obviously being a Edmonton based bank they are exposed
Imo not that bad considering the wreak in oil
I would of thought it would of been worse
Raised div by 4.5%
down around 24% since Jan
seems like a disconnect to me


----------



## godblsmnymkr

donald said:


> Imo it's investing behavior
> Cwb reported today(down 7% from same quarter last year)obviously being a Edmonton based bank they are exposed
> Imo not that bad considering the wreak in oil
> I would of thought it would of been worse
> Raised div by 4.5%
> down around 24% since Jan
> seems like a disconnect to me


i quickly browsed their news release. their gross impaired loans are up a ton. i think to really know the risk on their loans you would need to know the company they lent to, the credit quality of the company, and how they are hedged on oil prices. i dont know how you can find out that information so there's a lot of uncertainty there and the market doesnt like that so it prices it as a big discount. will have to take a more thorough look at their report this weekend. busy time with all the banks reporting at once. 

nice comment Alta. what you said is probably more specific and accurate then just "the price of oil" but isnt the price of oil what it comes down to in the end. high price of oil = more growth in projects and capacity in the end. i could have no idea what i'm talking about i'm far from an expert in the O&G industry.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

My Own Advisor said:


> On the subject of KMI, do we really see this company going under?
> http://www.kindermorgan.com/pages/asset_map/default.aspx



ya I think they have more pipeline in NA then anyone else. their problem is they are up to their eye balls in debt and just issued more debt to acquire another company. that could be a good sign of confidence in the company.


----------



## CPA Candidate

Energy infrastructure's fall from grace has been breathtaking. Including dividends ENB has zero return over the past 2 years or so.

I feel sorry for the investors who got swept up in the herd mentality of safety and dividends. When everyone thinks something is safe and buys it, it actually becomes risky. The risk is not in the company, but the valuation.



warp said:


> ENB has always been confusing for me.
> 
> I have always seen it as too "expensive", and have never bought it......and it has always moved higher, and I have always regretted not buying. This has gone on for years with me.
> 
> Kudos for you here, who were smarter than me and purchased ENB. It has been a great performer.


Sometimes it just takes time to realize you were right all along. It is a dangerous idea to believe the market is right. The market is human, afterall.


----------



## doctrine

godblsmnymkr said:


> so much for pipelines being "toll roads" and impervious to the price of oil. whether or not the price of oil hinders their business they are getting sold off regardless. i would not be jumping in here trying to bottom fish because of high yields.
> IPL just reported a great quarter and they are getting hit very hard. i think as long as the price of oil is struggling pipelines will struggle too. oil need to break out of its downtrend and hold it for awhile, while at the same time supply/demand imbalance corrects itself. until then you are risking getting your hands chopped off.


They are toll roads, but it's the reduction in growth that is hurting them. If you can't grow, and have a 80-100% payout, what should your yield be? Probably 6-8% rather than 4-6%. 7.3% now for IPL.


----------



## treva84

doctrine said:


> They are toll roads, but it's the reduction in growth that is hurting them. If you can't grow, and have a 80-100% payout, what should your yield be? Probably 6-8% rather than 4-6%. 7.3% now for IPL.


So what's the consensus for the piplelines? Is the current share price representative of the intrinsic value and poor growth prospects, or are they undervalued? With my TFSA contribution room in 2016 I'm hoping to pick up some value priced dividend growers.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

doctrine said:


> They are toll roads, but it's the reduction in growth that is hurting them. If you can't grow, and have a 80-100% payout, what should your yield be? Probably 6-8% rather than 4-6%. 7.3% now for IPL.


ya i wasnt saying they werent toll roads but mocking the fact that so many people have said they are not price sensitive when it comes to oil.

looks like it could be a capitulation event today from the friday OPEC hangover. interesting day.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Energy getting hammered..with $38 oil.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

ENF chart looks interesting here. gonna take a look at financials of it tonight.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Below 52-week low for ENF. I like buying at 52-week lows myself. Could be a nice fit for the TFSA in 2016. Need ~200 shares at today's price to DRIP.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

My Own Advisor said:


> Below 52-week low for ENF. I like buying at 52-week lows myself. Could be a nice fit for the TFSA in 2016. Need ~200 shares at today's price to DRIP.


enf and enb both stopped falling at some significant support levels. enf also is right on its support trendline. since 2005 enf has raised its divi every year but one and has never cut. 
taken a quick peak at q3 financials. 2014 q3 report was 21 pages. this year its 130 lol. thats not usually a good sign. the numbers in the report look good though with big growth.
will be an interesting week. i have this on my watch list.


----------



## treva84

From an investors point of view, what are the major differences between ENB and ENF? I've read the company descriptions on Google Finance; is ENF more of a dividend play where you buy it for the yield rather than the growth (like a REIT) where as ENB is a bit of both?


----------



## godblsmnymkr

http://seekingalpha.com/news/2972776-kinder-morgan-whacks-dividend-by-75-percent

odds this could happen to ENB? 
dont know much about their debt situation.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Be careful of *financial engineering at Enbridge*
Above interview addresses both the Kinder Morgan dividend cut, the perception of "toll road", and several other points raised in the discussion here.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

thanks for posting


----------



## treva84

HaroldCrump said:


> Be careful of *financial engineering at Enbridge*
> Above interview addresses both the Kinder Morgan dividend cut, the perception of "toll road", and several other points raised in the discussion here.


I can't watch this video at work - what's the gist?


----------



## Jungle

He's shorting the stock for 2 years now and claims it's becoming a Kinder Morgan
High levels of debt which has now been downgraded to bbb+ (from aaa) by s&p
Says future projects are being funded by raising equity and high yield on preferred shares, which are costing more than anticipated
He believes the market will not give it capital this way and ENB doesn't have enough profit left over to fund it. 
Doesn't like how management used ACFFO metric for payout ratio. Says EPS payout ration is at 85%
He believes ENB's customers (oil and gas companies) are at high risk of going bankrupt, unless oil rebounds above $50


----------



## godblsmnymkr

http://www.fool.ca/2015/12/10/kinder-morgan-inc-just-cut-its-dividend-could-enbridge-inc-be-next/

*Ultimately, the proof is in the ratios. Debt-to-EBITDA is the most important ratio in industries with a lot of debt. Currently, Enbridge has a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 10 times, while Kinder Morgan comes in at just 7.6 times. Both of these numbers include preferred shares as debt, which does skew things a bit. Remember, a company can choose not to pay preferred share dividends and not technically default its debt.

Of course, debt-to-EBITDA doesn’t tell the whole story. Enbridge is sitting on more than $1 billion in cash and generates more than $4 billion annually in operating cash flow. Its dividend is only 4.8% annually, which is a payout it can still afford.*


----------



## treva84

Jungle said:


> He's shorting the stock for 2 years now and claims it's becoming a Kinder Morgan
> High levels of debt which has now been downgraded to bbb+ (from aaa) by s&p
> Says future projects are being funded by raising equity and high yield on preferred shares, which are costing more than anticipated
> He believes the market will not give it capital this way and ENB doesn't have enough profit left over to fund it.
> Doesn't like how management used ACFFO metric for payout ratio. Says EPS payout ration is at 85%
> He believes ENB's customers (oil and gas companies) are at high risk of going bankrupt, unless oil rebounds above $50


Gotcha. I asked a dividend investor on another forum about his thoughts re negative Enbridge EPS, this is what he had to say:



> First, EPS is not a good metric for midstream companies due to high non-cash depreciation expenses, such as the capital intensity of building and maintaining all of its pipelines and terminals. Look how DD&A metric (depreciation, depletion and amortization expenses) impact earnings. Hence a better valuation metric for midstream companies are cash flow, precisely available cash flow from operations (ACFFO). It measures how much net cash the company is bringing in, minus any preferred dividends and maintenance capital. Therefore, it is a solid measure of how much cash flow the company has remaining to pay its dividend and to invest in growth projects.
> 
> Second, the number you have is the non-adjusted earnings TTM. I find unrealistic to measure by non-adjusted earnings, because it includes the impact of a number of unusual, non-recurring or non-operating factors, such as unrealized derivative fair value gains and losses from the Company’s long-term hedging program; one-time impacts from the transfer of assets between entities under common control of Enbridge in connection with the Canadian Restructuring Plan, including a loss on de-designation of interest rate hedges, write-off of a regulatory asset in respect of taxes and transaction costs; as well as gains on the disposal of non-core assets and certain costs and related insurance recoveries arising from crude oil releases. If you consider the adjusted earnings, Enbridge 2015 third quarter adjusted earnings were $399 million, or $0.47 per common share, compared with adjusted earnings of $345 million, or $0.41 per common share in the comparative 2014 period. The worst performing segment, Gas Pipelines, Processing, Energy Services was offset with lower corporate costs. The rest was in line or better than what was reported in 2014.
> 
> Furthermore, operating earnings are estimated to increase this year by 13% to $2.15. ACFFO is estimated to grow by 26%, keeping a payout ratio to ACFFO of 49.8%, which is very reasonable.


----------



## Jungle

Yea thanks, I believe that is RODs response he seems to be very knowledgable guy. I'm on those forums too almost daily. lol


----------



## Jungle

godblsmnymkr said:


> http://www.fool.ca/2015/12/10/kinder-morgan-inc-just-cut-its-dividend-could-enbridge-inc-be-next/
> 
> *Ultimately, the proof is in the ratios. Debt-to-EBITDA is the most important ratio in industries with a lot of debt. Currently, Enbridge has a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 10 times, while Kinder Morgan comes in at just 7.6 times. Both of these numbers include preferred shares as debt, which does skew things a bit. Remember, a company can choose not to pay preferred share dividends and not technically default its debt.
> 
> Of course, debt-to-EBITDA doesn’t tell the whole story. Enbridge is sitting on more than $1 billion in cash and generates more than $4 billion annually in operating cash flow. Its dividend is only 4.8% annually, which is a payout it can still afford.*


Good point, he does say in the video EBITDA to debt ratio is 7.5%, must not be including preferred shares. 

However I always assumed that pipelines carried higher levels of debt, due to their business model, relatively low cost of running a pipeline, maintenance and revenue of long term contracts.


----------



## Jungle

He claims to have started shorting it for two years ago, share price was about $44.00 share. Share price today $43.00 + he would have to pay the dividends too.


----------



## My Own Advisor

So the share price has been flat but shareholders have been getting paid; increasingly so via dividend hikes. This is a good thing. The stock price didn't move very much for people DRIPping and you got some raises in the process. I like it. This stock will rocket in a few years after oil comes back. 

Comparatively XIC has gained 3% over that time, two-years, including distributions.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Jungle said:


> He claims to have started shorting it for two years ago, share price was about $44.00 share. Share price today $43.00 + he would have to pay the dividends too.


Most likely he would have doubled down on his short over the years.
If a stock is over-valued at $44, it is surely over-valued at $66 (ENB's 2 year high)


----------



## besmartrich

I still think TRP is a better buy at this time. ENB has been overstretched on capital spending for many years now and worried that they end up like KMI soon. Well I will be happy to initiate my position when the time comes.


----------



## lost in space

OK bit of a duh question but I'm getting mixed answers here but is Enbridge losing money? 

I noticed on Top Yields that it has an EPS of -40 and payout ratio of -534. Same with a quote on TSX.com But according to Fastgraphs it has earnings of 2.15 a share. As well an article on the Motley Fool called it a great dividend stock. I also tried googling payout ratio but wasn't able to get any clear answers

Thanks


----------



## Eder

Their cap ex in Q3 was $5.4 billion...tends to skew the pe's etc. Best to keep an eye on their cash flow....$3.7 billion and only paying out $923 million in dividends.


----------



## Ethan

lost in space said:


> OK bit of a duh question but I'm getting mixed answers here but is Enbridge losing money?
> 
> I noticed on Top Yields that it has an EPS of -40 and payout ratio of -534. Same with a quote on TSX.com But according to Fastgraphs it has earnings of 2.15 a share. As well an article on the Motley Fool called it a great dividend stock. I also tried googling payout ratio but wasn't able to get any clear answers
> 
> Thanks


Enbridge has lost $415 million, or $0.49/share, in the first 9 months of 2015. They haven't released full year 2015 financials yet; Q3 is their most recent report.

http://www.enbridge.com/~/media/www...tor Relations/2015/2015_ENB_Q3_MDA_and_FS.pdf


----------



## Ethan

Eder said:


> Their cap ex in Q3 was $5.4 billion...tends to skew the pe's etc. Best to keep an eye on their cash flow....$3.7 billion and only paying out $923 million in dividends.


$3.7 billion is their operating cash flow (YTD, not Q3). Operating cash flows do not include capex. If you subtract capex of $5.4 billion, Enbridge has run a cash deficit of $1.7 billion before paying $0.9 billion in dividends. This $2.6 billion shortfall was made up by increasing debt by $2.4 billion and drawing down the cash balance by $0.2 billion.

From a cashflow perspective, I would argue Enbridge is a terrible investment.


----------



## donald

Don't you see oil trending up though Ethan?
maybe goes down in short term(would make sense)
but 2 yrs out 
They 'should' be making more
plus the wheat are the only guys coming out of the cycle
A case for a good investment
How long is dividend safe here?3 yrs?


----------



## Ethan

donald said:


> Don't you see oil trending up though Ethan?
> maybe goes down in short term(would make sense)
> but 2 yrs out
> They 'should' be making more
> plus the wheat are the only guys coming out of the cycle
> A case for a good investment
> How long is dividend safe here?3 yrs?


I think oil will go up, but I don't think that will a huge effect on Enbridge. They get paid to transport oil, not to sell it.


----------



## donald

But don't they renew a basket of 20 yr contracts every 5 yrs?
Like a gic ladder one would build recycling 
That is what they do right


----------



## CPA Candidate

Enbridge is a user of cash and has been for many years. They are always building or expanding something. As long as those investments deliver in the future there is no particular concern. Growing companies don't generally produce free cashflow. The company will have to mature before you see that.


----------



## lost in space

Ethan said:


> Enbridge has lost $415 million, or $0.49/share, in the first 9 months of 2015. They haven't released full year 2015 financials yet; Q3 is their most recent report.
> 
> http://www.enbridge.com/~/media/www...tor Relations/2015/2015_ENB_Q3_MDA_and_FS.pdf


I'll keep an eye on it but at this point I don't see the market pricing in a dividend cut or anything. Typically you tend to see the yield climbing but I don't see it here, at least not yet.


----------



## Eder

Err...Enbridge has already announced a 14% dividend increase for 2016 as well as 14-15% dividend growth till at least 2019. What's not to like?


----------



## AltaRed

They are being a rather aggressive company, given debt ratings are BBB, no better than AltaGas. Most blue chips want to be in the A's. TRP is A- by comparison.

Added: That said, I own ENB commons, some ENB preferreds and an Enbridge Income Fund 5 year term note.


----------



## Canadian

ENB expands and moves its mature assets into ENF. IMO if you are optimistic about the future of pipelines, invest in ENB. If you want the predictable free cash flow then ENF.


----------



## doctrine

There are no guarantees of dividends; you should at least be somewhat wary when promises are extended 3 years into the future, in the energy sector of all places, by a company that is having trouble turning a net profit despite significant cash flow. A lot of people dislike that core Enbridge assets are being dropped down; some very high quality assets that ENB has held for decades and they've basically sold 80% interest in.


----------



## Eder

They own 92% of Enbridge Income Fund according to their web site...where did you get that they sold 80%?


----------



## doctrine

They own 19.9% of ENF common equity; a lot of the assets are also in Enbridge Income Partners LP (not to be confused with Enbridge Energy Partners LP) where they own at least $15B in equity and ENF also owns a piece. I'm not sure what is in that entity though. These are all vehicles for ENB to sell their assets to fund their projects. It's a lot of financial engineering that makes it far more difficult for average or even above average investors to track what the total assets and debts actually are and how sustainable their dividend is, other than taking management's word.


----------



## Ethan

Eder said:


> Err...Enbridge has already announced a 14% dividend increase for 2016 as well as 14-15% dividend growth till at least 2019. What's not to like?


A company raising their dividend while generating losses and burning through cash gives you no cause for concern?


----------



## AltaRed

Ethan said:


> A company raising their dividend while generating losses and burning through cash gives you no cause for concern?


I think there is reason to have some concern for ENB, less so for ENF that has the foundational core assets. 

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...e-Energy-Partners-affirms-Enbridge--PR_328408

Really don't know what ENB is trying to prove (or be) but it is not traditional pipeline by a long shot. Think they are going to be making a lot of shareholders angry soon. I missed selling the last half of my ENB common shares in 2014...by about 25 cents on the downslop of a $66 share price. They've already pissed off their bond and preferred share holders.


----------



## daddybigbucks

quite a few risks with ENB right now.
I did compare ENB with TRP year end financials, and i do believe at this ENB is standing a little better right now.
So, I traded in some TRP for some ENB, to try and make a few percentages.


----------



## humble_pie

slightly off topic - some on here might remember Val, a knowledgeable US gas executive who took part in the early days/year of the massive TRP thread.

Val had a pair going. He was long enbridge & short trans canada pipe. He believed that competitive US northeastern shale gas would destroy TRP in eastern canada.

never mind the staggering trans canada dividends he would have had to personally pay out all those years. The story only goes to show how even a knowledgeable industry insider can get the view a bit wrong ...


----------



## AltaRed

Things do not always have the impact one expects. TRP earnings have been hurt by NE shale gas but they are a much bigger company than their mainline gas pipelines to Eastern Canada. Their growth and stock performance would likely have outperformed ENB had TRP been able to keep their gas pipelines full. Hence the rationale for Energy East.

But it does show that one cannot easily foresee the degree of impacts and how a company can adjust to make the best out of situations.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I don't own any pipelines but for those who do, this might shake things up a little.

http://fortune.com/2016/02/22/oil-pipeline-bankruptcy-midstream-shale/


----------



## AltaRed

It is real. Take or pay contracts may be no good in a bankruptcy where a shipper cannot pay the bills. It also depends on whether the shipping contracts are secured by other shipper assets and where that security fits in creditor rankings.oo

Added: The billion dollar question is when will the market turn. Some are calling for a turn as early as 2Q16 but I think that is highly optimistic. The wild card remains Iran for the most part.


----------



## Pluto

This is the kind of bad news, pessimism, - whatever negative sentiment - that creates a buying opportunity. It you wait for good news, its too late. Buy on bad news, and if you sell, sell into an optimistic or euphoric rally.


----------



## doctrine

$2 billion stock issue. No surprise really, and I believe a product of some of the insightful analysis on this thread showing they can't support their growth without financing. 49 million shares at $40.70 Cdn.

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/pres...illion-of-common-shares-sufficient-to-fulfill


----------



## My Own Advisor

People said the financial world was crumbling 8 years ago as well. This too shall pass.


----------



## daddybigbucks

doctrine said:


> $2 billion stock issue. No surprise really, and I believe a product of some of the insightful analysis on this thread showing they can't support their growth without financing. 49 million shares at $40.70 Cdn.
> 
> http://www.stockhouse.com/news/pres...illion-of-common-shares-sufficient-to-fulfill


The markets see it as being benifical to get Enbridge through these tough times?

Just Like Encana, the markets seem to like it when the big companies show that their are aware of their weakness.


----------



## lost in space

Good article on Seeking Alpha - tends to reflect my thinkong, don't like companies that issue tons of extra shares

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3960326-enbridge-short-story


----------



## godblsmnymkr

if you want steady income from pipelines I would look at IPL instead. just reported record income. my biggest position in oil right now.


----------



## DividendPlanet.com

*ENB dividend growth*

I have a great deal of comfort in knowing that Enbridge has raised their dividends for more than 19 years in a row. This means that they got through the Financial Crisis, without having to cut the dividend.

From 2007 to 2009 they were able to raise their annual earnings and dividends substantially, in a period where the price of oil suffered as well. There is of course no guarantee that history will repeat itself, but the management seems to be dedicated to the dividend. This makes them shareholder friendly in my view.

Their track record of raising the dividend makes them the 11th best Canadian dividend growth stock. As a shareholder investing for income, I am sleeping well. I would not recommend buying here, the price went up far too much on the news that Saudi Arabia is planning for an output freeze.


----------



## CPA Candidate

lost in space said:


> Good article on Seeking Alpha - tends to reflect my thinkong, don't like companies that issue tons of extra shares
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/3960326-enbridge-short-story


There are three ways to finance growth, internal cashflows, debt or equity. Maximum growth rates are very constrained when a company limits itself to using internally generated cashflow and it's pretty rare you ever seen this happen. I don't think investors would get too excited if ENB said it's growth rate going forward was going to be < 5%.

Debt doesn't "dilute" shareholders but comes with interest payments and higher risk. ENB is already fairly leveraged. Increasing debt further could increase interest rates for the company and probably drag the valuation down.

Equity raises cash without the risk of debt and overcomes the limitations of internally generated cash. Now here's the aspect of this discussion that drives me crazy, that anytime a company issues equity it has "diluted" shareholders. If the percent increase in net income as the result of the project that required financing exceeds the percent increase in the share count, issuing equity can increase earnings per share (accretive).

I'm not saying this to defend Enbridge, I don't really care, just tired of laymen analysis you find on seeking alpha that decries issuing equity just from the fact that is happens. It's more complicated than that. These guys don't like debt, too risky, don't like equity, too dilutive. Well then, how do you grow at a reasonable pace that will attract investors and lower your cost of capital? That's when you here crickets.

I do believe that from time to time ENB gets way overvalued because it is popular with the retirement and low risk crowds. Raising equity when share prices are overvalued is very astute on the part of management and I can completely understand why they do it especially when it is well received.


----------



## hollyhunter

ENB.TO The indicator RSI is over 50, which stands at 57.89. If RSI were trading around 50 and the stock began to trade flat, the indicator would not be expected to decline. A break of 51.31 could move it up to 59.93 in short term.


----------



## jollybear

hollyhunter said:


> ENB.TO The indicator RSI is over 50, which stands at 57.89. If RSI were trading around 50 and the stock began to trade flat, the indicator would not be expected to decline. A break of 51.31 could move it up to 59.93 in short term.



Sounds like you`re putting a lot of emphasis on small fluctuations in one particular technical indicator. I watch the RSI of stocks on daily to yearly time periods, but really pay attention to RSI when it`s in the extreme levels of +70 to -30, and then compare price points in the past to RSI levels at that time to see if there`s a divergence. That`s the real benefit of this indicator.


----------



## Holland

Enbridge to buy/merge with Spectra energy 

http://www.bnn.ca/enbridge-s-37b-al...create-north-american-pipeline-giant-1.561575


----------



## My Own Advisor

Just read this deal. *Great news. *


----------



## hollyhunter

It is approaching a key resistance at 59.19. A break of this level could accelerate the stock price.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

Spectra deal was finalized today, volume was 91M (regular volume is around 2M)


----------



## Steve Divi

Bought in at $55.50 

Will buy more over the next year. Future looks really bright.


----------



## james4beach

Something I can't figure out ... ENB's weight in the TSX 60 has gone way up.

As of December 31, 2016 -- ENB was 3.5% of the TSX 60. Today it's 5.8% of the index.

*Edit*: silly me, must be the merger. It had a market cap of around $55 billion at the end of 2016, and today has $91 billion market cap.

Yup, there it is. (91/55) x 3.5 = 5.8% on the nose. TSX 60 cap weighting, obviously. Gosh that was a big increase in market cap from the merger.


----------



## Eder

We're all pretty excited about how this merger will affect cash flow and payouts. Big gulp for Enbridge.


----------



## gibor365

Before I was holding only ENF, 2-3 days ago I initiated position in ENB. imho 4.15 % yield + 10% annual dividend increases are pretty good for this income stock


----------



## Steve Divi

I have been adding every 2 weeks for a while now and will continue to do so until this goes above $60.


----------



## Eder

And then start adding ever week lol.


----------



## gibor365

Steve Divi said:


> I have been adding every 2 weeks for a while now and will continue to do so until this goes above $60.


My ENB/ENF holdings (together with many other stocks) are "hold for life and collect dividends" regardless of the price


----------



## Dilbert

gibor365 said:


> My ENB/ENF holdings (together with many other stocks) are "hold for life and collect dividends" regardless of the price


+1


----------



## AltaRed

gibor365 said:


> My ENB/ENF holdings (together with many other stocks) are "hold for life and collect dividends" regardless of the price


As long as it does not over-extend itself and have to cut its dividend like TRP had to do at one time. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/transcanada-stock-drops-after-dividend-cut-1.169193 Companies like these that play around in alternative investments not core to their business can find themselves overextended. I remember Doug Baldwin, formerly of Imperial Oil, coming to clean house and re-build the balance sheet and cut expenses. Companies like TRP and ENB are (sort of) back at that game.


----------



## Steve Divi

Come on Alta, don't crush my dreams of owning a perfect company. :frown-new:


----------



## AltaRed

Steve Divi said:


> Come on Alta, don't crush my dreams of owning a perfect company. :frown-new:


There is no perfect company. They all get lazy, complacent, cocky, bold, throw caution to the wind, or addicted to their own success sooner or later. Don't go much above one's ISP criteria for the maximum one should have in their portfolio for each holding. Example: If that criteria is 5%, then at 7% it is definitely overdue to do something, especially if a company's share price stagnates or D/E ratios get too high for their industry, or dividend payout ratio gets close to 100% of free cash flow.


----------



## james4beach

I agree, there is no such thing as a "buy and hold forever" stock. Every company can turn bad... this is why investing in individual stocks, unlike an index, requires constant vigilance to monitor your positions and adapt.

That kind of monitoring is very difficult to do.


----------



## AltaRed

Oh, I wouldn't say it is that difficult to hold a portfolio of blue chip dividend paying stocks. It is just that one cannot just set and forget to monitor for managements faltering in their decision making.


----------



## agent99

gibor365 said:


> My ENB/ENF holdings (together with many other stocks) are "hold for life and collect dividends" regardless of the price


I sold my Enbridge a while back. Altared can correct me, but seemed to me that they own a lot of quite old pipelines. They had spills from some of these. How about the company they have recently merged with in USA (Spectra). Don't they too have aging pipelines and some history of failures? 

I do still own TRP and a small amount of a couple of other pipeline cos (IPL, PPL). Down the road spill remediation and maintenance/replacement costs are a concern to me with those too.

I wonder if smarter pipeline companies are like some REITS and unload their older assets? Seems to me that Riocan has done that. Sort of like upgrading your car once in a while and let someone else handle the problems.


----------



## gibor365

> Don't they too have aging pipelines and some history of failures?


 You can tell this about any stock .



> It is just that one cannot just set and forget to monitor for managements faltering in their decision making.


 but retail investor will always be the last to know it... 

This is why a have many holdings and no one exceed 5% of total portfolio...


----------



## AltaRed

agent99 said:


> I sold my Enbridge a while back. Altared can correct me, but seemed to me that they own a lot of quite old pipelines.


I think ENB has downloaded most of that stuff into ENF where ENB can leverage more return by ultimately selling shares of ENF. Pretty much every bit of infrastructure in any business has aged over the years and replacement is an ongoing expense. ENB has an advantage over other pipeline operators in that regard, i.e. they can slough them off to ENF whereas other pipeline operators must sell outright or keep them in the corporate family. ENB is likely (my guess) no worse off than anyone else.

Whether telecoms, rails, pipelines, oil or power producers, they all face these issues. The downside to pipelines and refineries is that catastrophic leaks can be explosive (no pun intended) or at a minimum, an expensive environmental cleanup. But that is not reason to not own them...unless they have a 'worse than average' failure rate in which case that is a management problem (neglect). Reports on failures (leaks) are a matter of public record so one could review them if they wish. But not of much use to the layman.

The key to account risk management is not to have a disproportionate holding in any one stock/asset. Run with your winners...to a point. Just don't be stupid about it.


----------



## like_to_retire

agent99 said:


> I sold my Enbridge a while back. Altared can correct me, but seemed to me that they own a lot of quite old pipelines.


If you want to own energy, then pipelines are a great way to do so. This simply means you own TRP and ENB (case closed), and if you want a yield boost you can add IPL. Why would you get rid of ENB? There aren't enough pipes in the business to be so picky, and if you drop ENB you'll reduce your already thin diversification.



AltaRed said:


> I think ENB has downloaded most of that stuff into ENF where ENB can leverage more return by ultimately selling shares of ENF. Pretty much every bit of infrastructure in any business has aged over the years and replacement is an ongoing expense. ENB has an advantage over other pipeline operators in that regard, i.e. they can slough them off to ENF whereas other pipeline operators must sell outright or keep them in the corporate family. ENB is likely (my guess) no worse off than anyone else.
> 
> Whether telecoms, rails, pipelines, oil or power producers, they all face these issues. The downside to pipelines and refineries is that catastrophic leaks can be explosive (no pun intended) or at a minimum, an expensive environmental cleanup. But that is not reason to not own them...unless they have a 'worse than average' failure rate in which case that is a management problem (neglect). Reports on failures (leaks) are a matter of public record so one could review them if they wish. But not of much use to the layman.
> 
> The key to account risk management is not to have a disproportionate holding in any one stock/asset. Run with your winners...to a point. Just don't be stupid about it.


agent9 - Read and re-read.

ltr


----------



## Eder

agent99 said:


> I sold my Enbridge a while back. Altared can correct me, but seemed to me that they own a lot of quite old pipelines. .


Its not so much the pipes as the right of way these days.


----------



## agent99

Eder said:


> Its not so much the pipes as the right of way these days.


Eder: That is scertainly something that could restrict growth of pipeline companies.


----------



## agent99

like_to_retire said:


> I There aren't enough pipes in the business to be so picky, and if you drop ENB you'll reduce your already thin diversification.


My diversification is thin is it? How could you say that without knowing what I own?



like_to_retire said:


> agent9 - Read and re-read.


Why are you so concerned about me owning 3 pipeline companies and not including Enbridge? Maybe I should sell some banks and buy more pipelines?? 

My post was in response to those who thought Enbridge was the perfect stock. I pointed out that it is not without significant environmental risk. 

Alta confirmed what most already know. Pipelines ARE a risky business. I sold Enbridge after they had a major spill AND after researching their previous spill record ( 804 spills occurred on Enbridge pipelines between 1999 and 2010.) From what Alta said, they may have offloaded some their older pipelines onto ENF. Even more risk there.


----------



## Eclectic12

agent99 said:


> ... My post was in response to those who thought Enbridge was the perfect stock. I pointed out that it is not without significant environmental risk.


Fair enough.

Though it is interesting that TRP, which you own has had a spill on pipe that has only been running for six years. The spill is reported to have been too small for the detection equipment to find but enough for a neigbour to see and has sparked a review.
http://www.nationalobserver.com/201...out-risky-welding-transcanada-pipeline-leaked
http://time.com/4292856/south-dakota-oil-spill/
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/anthon...s-strong-case-rejecting-keystone-xl-tar-sands


Cheers


----------



## AltaRed

If you really think about it... a pipeline may transport 500,000 bpd of crude. Leak detection equipment may not be more accurate than 0.1% or maybe even 1% of capacity. That would translate to 500 bpd @ 0.1% sensitivity and 5000 bpd @ 1% sensitivity. That is why visuals (flying the ROW) is so important on a regular schedule basis... and/or locals (as eyes on the ground) reporting a spill.

I would hope someday that satellite monitoring may be a practical solution, i.e. ability to survey the ROW almost continuously and see something as small as a deer crossing the ROW.


----------



## agent99

AltaRed said:


> I would hope someday that satellite monitoring may be a practical solution, i.e. ability to survey the ROW almost continuously and see something as small as a deer crossing the ROW.


I imagine the US & Russia could do that now 

In the chemical industry, we were required to have double containment. Storage tanks within *****. Very hazardous material pumped through double pipes. Of course the pipes didn't run very far and the volumes were much smaller. But perhaps this is what pipelines should be required to have. Either double walled pipes with monitoring of the annular space or berms on either side leading to containment ponds at regular intervals. Double hulled railcars and tankers. Plus your satellite monitoring. Very costly no doubt. But without ensuring complete safety fewer and fewer pipelines will get built. And the old deteriorating ones will get pushed to their limits increasing likelihood of spills. Not an industry I would want to be in these days. (Yet I keep my pipeline investments because CGs are too high to sell!)


----------



## Kropew

50$ ... undervalued ?!


----------



## spdr1812

I was thinking of an entry as well , but more room to fall possibly ?


----------



## Kropew

spdr1812 said:


> I was thinking of an entry as well , but more room to fall possibly ?


I'm still waiting to see if oil prices are falling further


----------



## AltaRed

Kropew said:


> I'm still waiting to see if oil prices are falling further


Any more price softness may have to do more with interest yield curve sentiment than oil prices. I have not checked their D/E ratio post Spectra but it has to be significant.


----------



## Eder

I think its a good idea to see how their Spectra big gulp works out in the next year as well.


----------



## Pluto

I heard through the grapevine that ENB fired a lot of employees post big gulp to eliminate redundancies. Here's to hoping this deal works out for the better. Maybe high oil inventories are spooking investors too.


----------



## martou30d

finally pulled the trigger and purchased 120 shares of ENB.TO looking to hold for 25-30 years and DRIP as many shares i can until then

who here owned ENB for while and do you have any comments, like on their projection to increase dividends 10-12% every year from now until 2024..

cheers


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

I have about 600sh that I've owned for quite some time. It's been a solid dividend payor. I think it is still ranked among the buy and hold of Cdn dividend payors. 
I believe I sold off some late last year when it approached $60, to offset a loss elsewhere that I was crystalizing.


----------



## martou30d

@OnlyMyOpinion. awesome thanks for sharing!!


----------



## milhouse

I've only had ENB for a few years and unfortunately bought my first set on the relatively high side mid $50's. As it's dropped to $50ish, I've bought more. Dividends projections aren't guaranteed of course but I am seduced by their projected growth forecast. ENB is pretty much a buy and hold stock for me, taking the yield for income once I retire in a few more years.


----------



## 1980z28

I don`t have any oil
is todays price going lower,good time to get in


----------



## Eder

I added today as I like buying good companies after an earnings miss ( basically used the money from my sale of Kinder Morgan Canada a few weeks ago). Might drift a bit lower next couple weeks though but in the long run it will make little difference.


----------



## 1980z28

Eder said:


> I added today as I like buying good companies after an earnings miss ( basically used the money from my sale of Kinder Morgan Canada a few weeks ago). Might drift a bit lower next couple weeks though but in the long run it will make little difference.


I will follow,, in for a dime in for a dollar
Nice dividend


----------



## milhouse

I want to add more. It's kind of a compelling price and dividend, with nice dividend growth guidance. But I want to read and listen to all their material for the quarter to see how confident they sound and if the reaffirm their guidance. If there's a threat to their dividend growth guidance, I suspect it can drop some more.


----------



## gibor365

Eder said:


> I added today as I like buying good companies after an earnings miss ( basically used the money from my sale of Kinder Morgan Canada a few weeks ago). Might drift a bit lower next couple weeks though but in the long run it will make little difference.


Same here , added a bit to both ENB and ENF


----------



## doctrine

Might be a good buy. I would expect you could acquire shares from now until the end of the year as there will be tax loss selling on this. 

Keep in mind that ENB is not the same growth company it was 5 years ago. The dividend is 75% of cash flow already. TRP, for example, is only paying out 57% of its cash flow. Thus, TRP has a lower dividend, but likely more growth. 75% is not a great number but that is ENB's new policy. I'm not convinced they can maintain their 10% growth until 2024 goal or whatever it is. That is a long time, and they will have to raise a lot of cash to get there. ENB is still in trimming and digestion mode with the Spectra acquisition.


----------



## Eder

I agree assimilating Spectra will drag out but did that acquisition not just about double the size (37 billion of growth) of the business?


----------



## doctrine

The new growth now requires more common shares, because they are paying out more of their cash in dividends and can't grow as much organically. It looks to me like ENB is generating *maybe* $1.5B in free cash flow annually right now. Where do you think they'll fund that $37 billion in growth from? They can only squeeze so much from cost cutting; they'll need to sell assets and raise common shares plus plenty of more debt. 

With the combination of more shares coming, old Spectra shareholders still unloading these ENB things, and strong negative momentum which encourages more to sell and others to short, there is plenty of time to pick up cheap shares here. Patience is required, I think people will be very happy in a few years.


----------



## milhouse

Looking at my notes, they revised their dividend growth estimates down from 14-16% to 10-12% through 2024. The 10-12% is supposed to be based on confirmed pipeline development while the 14-16% is dependent on unconfirmed pipeline development. To state the obvious, if the confirmed pipeline developments hit a snag, that could hurt and if they get their other developments going, it's going to be a nice positive. 
It's also good that they had the confidence to increase their dividend 15% this year apparently based on closing the Spectra deal.


----------



## Eder

doctrine said:


> there is plenty of time to pick up cheap shares here. Patience is required, I think people will be very happy in a few years.


This is a fact...I wouldn't rush in but I have to much cash not paying me right now so I think $47+change is OK to grab the fat dividend. Tax loss season may do more of a beat down as well, I may sell some of my IPL to take advantage if that is the case.


----------



## gibor365

Eder said:


> This is a fact...I wouldn't rush in but I have to much cash not paying me right now so I think $47+change is OK to grab the fat dividend. Tax loss season may do more of a beat down as well, I may sell some of my IPL to take advantage if that is the case.


Same here  have to much cashand didn't do still 2017 RRSP/TFSA cotributions...
For now dividends on both ENB/ENF looks stable and they are pretty high


----------



## milhouse

Hmm, kind of evasive on a dividend growth question in the analyst conference call. Suggested that more info coming during Enbridge Day which is scheduled Dec 12 and 13.


----------



## james4beach

Gosh, 5.2% dividend yield. That's using 0.61 CAD or $2.44 annually.

Pretty sad to see ENB so weak with the TSX hitting new highs.


----------



## hboy54

Hi:

I find ENB, indeed all the pipelines to be too expensive. All the fundamental metrics are nosebleed. I'd need to see this come down at least by a third to be tempted.

I know, it is deemed low risk in the world of equities. But how low risk is it really? Somebody paid $63 for this in 2015, and it was trading at a few dollars under current SP 5 years ago.

Maybe some reorganization in there I did not follow, but on the face of it, I see nothing of interest here. Even at $47, let alone $63 a few years back, seems priced for perfection. In the world of stalled and cancelled pipeline projects, how can we price for perfection?

Hboy54


----------



## dubmac

I own a bit o' ENB.
Morningstar analysts write the following on this struggling co. 


While crude pipelines are Enbridge’s bread and butter, the company operates a diverse energy portfolio. Gas distribution operations benefit from regulated returns and
provide the company with reliable cash flows. Enbridge also operates natural gas pipelines and processing assets that supplement its crude pipeline network. Future natural gas pipeline projects benefit from long-term contracts that are tied into emerging projects. Recently, Enbridge finalized its acquisition of Spectra Energy. The deal positions Enbridge to diversify its operations toward natural gas, with over CAD 8 billion in secured expansion projects. 

The company intends to increase its annual dividend and has maintained an average distributed cash coverage ratio of approximately 3.3 times over the past two years. Overall, Enbridge is in a strong position to benefit from the growing oil sands supply. _We expect the Line 3 Replacement to be in service by the end of 2019 and fuel tremendous growth for the company. We believe the stock is undervalued based on the company's vast growth portfolio_, highlighted by the lucrative natural gas projects associated with the Spectra acquisition and the Line 3...

Also...

Management continues to invest in high-return projects in areas of projected oil sands supply and projected natural gas production and consumption growth. _The proposed growth projects should continue to generate excess returns on capital and stable cash flows_. To further diversify the company’s operations, management is developing additional distribution and green power energy projects. However, reliance on potential major crude pipeline expansion projects could cost the company billions in sunk costs, as increased regulations make these projects highly unlikely to be approved in the near future.

_Management maintains a strong average distributable cash coverage ratio of approximately 3.4 times, which will continue to allow the company to support its proposed
dividend growth_. Although we applaud management’s investment in high-return projects in regions with growing production and dedication to dividend growth, we assign a Standard stewardship rating while we observe the impact of delays and rejected approvals associated with major crude pipeline expansion projects, coupled with the early construction on the Line 3 Replacement.


----------



## AltaRed

The same potentially mindless stuff spouted by analysts. Upcoming investor day will be a major event to potentially reset current thinking.

What if Line 3 replacement does not happen? What if there is no more material growth in oil sands production beyond Fort Hills and Horizon? Who in the industry is going to increase Canadian oil production by a collective 500+ kbod to make one or more of Keystone XL or Line 3 replacement work? If material increases in Canadian oil production does not occur, do you really think 5-8 billion dollars in gas expansion and re-distribution projects in the USA is enough to materially move this super tanker? What if some of those projects are stalled by environmental nutbars?

I see some dividend growth as the Spectra acquisition is integrated AND ENB invests to re-balance its US gas pipeline systems to get Western gas to the East and to LNG export terminals. I also see some dividend growth as debt gets paid off and increased cash flow (net of higher interest costs due to yield curve increases) allows for dividend increases. But I think investors may now have to look at Enbridge as a mature utility type company that, as Hboy suggests, needs further valuation compression. As I think I mentioned somewhere, does Enbridge warrant P/E multiples larger than TD or Royal Bank? Maybe not. Stay tuned.

Added: I retain a full position in ENB after having sold off half of my holdings some years back after the spectacular run up. I see it the same as holding a utility or a Canadian bank. Good for me now as an income investor. Less so on a Total Return basis.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Thanks for that info Dubmac. Prompted me to look at what we own. Just under 600 sh at an acb of $30.44. It only provides ~$120/month of our income. I thought we had more. 
Will keep an eye on it now as we have cash looking for a home. If the general market was to drop for some reason, I suspect ENB could get dragged ($46.83) to even lower levels in the downdraft.

Added: I agree AltaRed about the growth/total return outlook. Rightly or not, our focus these days is backfilling our matured strip bond spending with diverse dividend income.


----------



## Eder

Goes ex Div on the 14th and most likely the dividend will increase in January to continue the the 22 consecutive years of dividend increases (most likely 10%). Tax loss season may be the sweet spot to buy if trying to time a position.


----------



## dubmac

Eder said:


> Goes ex Div on the 14th and most likely the dividend will increase in January to continue the the 22 consecutive years of dividend increases (most likely 10%). Tax loss season may be the sweet spot to buy if trying to time a position.


Thnx Eder...I'll be watching -I'd like another buy sub 40, but let's see what happens. I agree with some of the comments by Alta...ENB has it's challenges. 
There is a good article on ENB in today's G&M, ROB pg 9. good reading for ENB holders.


----------



## Eder

I think Dec.22nd is last day for tax loss selling this year...lots of time to wait for sub $40 before this date...good luck.


----------



## londoncalling

I placed an order Friday morning in the $46 range. Didn't quite get that low. I will likely keep the order for a 1/2 position open to see if it hits. I would agree with the above that there are some headwinds and that dividend growth may not be as robust. I am confident that line 3 will go through in some way, shape or form. 5%+ yield, 22 years of increases and likely to continue works for me. I have plans to hold long term and to add a 2nd pipeline to my holdings. If it his sub 40 before the end of the year I will definitely pick up the second half. Likely if it gets below $42.

Cheers

Cheers


----------



## AltaRed

I suspect Enbridge's Investor Day on Dec 12th may show less growth than their earlier 2017 presentation (Slide 16) https://www.enbridge.com/~/media/En...elations/2017/Combined_NYSE_Presentations.pdf

Whether that expected slower growth is already reflected in current valuations, I have no idea.


----------



## james4beach

Eder said:


> I think Dec.22nd is last day for tax loss selling this year...lots of time to wait for sub $40 before this date...good luck.


I think you forgot about the new T+2 settlement.

The last 2017 trading day will be December 27, because those trades will settle on December 29


----------



## Eder

Oh this is something new...nice. Thanks for pointing that out!


----------



## Calmoney

Hitting sub a 52 week low, 5.2Y, great fundamentals, might be the time to add this one. Even possibly without the robust growth in the div the starting point is very good.


----------



## blin10

got some today


----------



## james4beach

If it's got such great fundamentals and is so attractive, why would institutions by selling it like this? They have whole departments who look into the guts of companies.


----------



## Eder

A lot of people like to wait till momentum changes before buying, look how oversold IPL got before getting back in the right direction. I'm too dumb to buy at the bottom (no patience) but I know I'll kick myself if I held off adding till ENB is back above $50. Besides I've pretty much kicked most mutual funds *** over the last years, maybe thats because they make some poor decisions just to look better at year end?


----------



## fstamand

I'm just about to turn my weed to fossils. Am I thinking straight ?


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

fstamand said:


> I'm just about to turn my weed to fossils. Am I thinking straight ?


How is this relevant to this Enbridge thread?


----------



## humble_pie

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> How is this relevant to this Enbridge thread?



he might mean petrochemical fuels, les combustibles

or he might mean nosotros, les aieux du forum


----------



## fatcat

he is thinking of selling his holdings in mary jane and buying petrochemicals

selling his WEED and buying ENB


----------



## fstamand

this ^ ...


----------



## humble_pie

i am jk about vosotros ...


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Got it. These companies are about as far apart as investments as you can get. 
Does replacing one with the other make sense within your overall portfolio?


----------



## humble_pie

enbridge seems to be a forum pet rock. 

still, in these toppy times even pet rocks should be approached as if they were guy fawkes firecrackers in disguise. Many folks are cheering the juicy ENB 5% plus dividend; but what if that dividend should be cut. Stock goes X tomorrow.

sometimes a new investor can stick in his toe for less than the going market price by selling puts first. Enbridge closed today at 46.14. There is noticeable institutional participation in the $42 puts for both jan 2018 (9,643 contracts in open interest) & jan 2019 (5,021 contracts.)

the jan 42 puts of 2019 are 2.71-2.97. They might have traded today for 2.79, which would have set an investor up to possibly acquire stock at 39.21.


----------



## fstamand

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Got it. These companies are about as far apart as investments as you can get.
> Does replacing one with the other make sense within your overall portfolio?


Yes. I already own some ENB, but bought at higher rate. The WEED stocks are in my play account; ENB at this rate seems like a good idea to "level up". Sorry for the disruptions.


----------



## doctrine

I'm now interested in ENB. While the payout is high this year, it is dropping rapidly. I am expecting that management will temper expectations from the 10-12% annual dividend growth down to something in the 6-8% range. This has buying opportunity written all over it.


----------



## jargey3000

...just checked...currently at 45.14 (-.39).... continues to drop like a (pet) rock....
still procrastinating whether to jump in yet....this'll prob. be another one of those decisions I'll regret in 2-3 years!!!
OTOH....NINE touched $4 this morning...


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Ex-dividend as well. Shareholders of record on Nov 15 will be paid on Dec. 1.


----------



## james4beach

ENB is not dropping like a rock today.

Today was the ex dividend date so if you held ENB before today's open, you get the dividend. If you buy it today, you don't get the current dividend.

Yesterday's close was 46.14. The ex div is today, to pay out a 0.61 dividend.

Since dividends are not free money _and are directly take out of a company_, today's opening price was automatically adjusted to 46.14 - 0.61 = *45.53* by the exchange.

The point is that since today's opening price was adjusted to 45.53, the current price of 45.10 means the stock is down -0.94% today, which means ENB is doing considerably better today than the energy sector (XLE down -2.8%, Suncor down -1.5%)


----------



## AltaRed

^+1 That is a good way to put price change into perspective.

Hyperbole and sensationalism should be reserved to media talking heads trying to sell headlines.


----------



## sags

Edit post........looked it up.


----------



## james4beach

Maybe I spoke too soon, it's dropping more, about -1.4% so far with dividend adjustment. Still outperforming the energy sector though.


----------



## jargey3000

...apology accepted ...


----------



## james4beach

Closed at 44.54, down -2.2% today. Yeah that's another rough day.

In comparison, Suncor -1.4%, sector XEG -3.2%


----------



## jargey3000

...time to buy-in for a first-timer? I'm thinking "wait & see" a bit longer....


----------



## My Own Advisor

Usually anything around 52-week low is good to buy. You're there. You'll never time the bottom but far lower now than months ago.


----------



## jargey3000

My Own Advisor said:


> Usually anything around 52-week low is good to buy. You're there. You'll never time the bottom but far lower now than months ago.


...yeah...you're prob. right MOA..
But WHY is it dropping lately???


----------



## AltaRed

It is still dropping because in my opinion: 1) management has not yet articulated to investors that they plan to right the ship in terms of less obsession with dividend growth and instead pay down debt, and 2) potentially tax loss selling season. Like MOA, purchasing a blue chip around 52 week lows (its down 24% from its 52 week high) is likely a bargain when one looks back a few years from now. Don't get hung up on finding the bottom as that is also only known in hindsight and only useful as bragging rights.


----------



## james4beach

Looking at the company financials, I'm a bit confused about their cashflow situation. Because of the huge merger earlier this year, the numbers per share look weird. Can someone help explain this?
https://www.enbridge.com/~/media/Enb/Documents/Investor Relations/2017/2017_ENB_Q3_MDA_FS.pdf?la=en

ACFFO is their cashflow measure, 'available cash flow from operations'. The 3 month ACFFO was $0.82 per share. The 9 month ACFFO was $2.61 per share.

And yet, their management guidance is for 2017 total ACFFO of $3.60 to $3.90 for 12 months. How do they figure that? If in the last 9 months they're at $2.61 and a quarter brings in around .80 to .90, that doesn't get you quite far enough for their full year projection (3.60 to 3.90). It's not like their share count is going down.

By my examination, their full year cash flow guidance looks overly optimistic. So perhaps the market has some uncertainty about their ACFFO projection? That in turn definitely raises questions about the dividend growth.


----------



## james4beach

ACFFO
2015 was $3.72 per share
2016 was $4.08 per share
2017 guidance is $3.60 - $3.90 but *I'd guess more like $3.50 per share*

So currently this means poorer cashflow than either of the past two years, and my guess would be 14% lower cashflow (per share) than last year. And ACFFO does not include interest expenses on debt. Remember that they took on some huge debt with the merger, so the ACFFO figure doesn't even reflect the additional cashflow drain from new debt servicing costs.

Now that I've looked into it, I'm a bit concerned about their cashflow. That's a pretty sharp decline versus past years.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

One word - uncertainty. Energy overall was negative today over price uncertainty. Uncertainty about ENB's upcoming dividend growth forecast. I'll stay up to date on developments, but barring a div cut (seems unlikely), I'm ok with my long term holding.


----------



## humble_pie

sold 6 puts jan/19 42s today. $2.94 x 600 = 1,764.

i was originally intending to sell 10, but at the last minute the saviour editor took over the fingers as it often does, so the order they keyed in was for 6 contracts, not 10. The maximum liability would be 25,200, not 42,000. Not that such a thing would ever happen, i'd be long gone.

once i get used to this stock i might start some serious buying. Particularly if they damp the dividend.



EDIT: that $2.94 was the equivalent of roughly 15 months of ENB dividends. It was collected upfront, all at once, tout à coup, without tying up capital. In addition, the proceeds will be taxed more favourably than eligible dividends.

the risk is a black swan market that would see enbridge in the $20s. If ENB declines further but in a gradualist fashion, troughing say in the high 30s, a seller of puts in the low 40s will be able to roll through serenely. 


.


----------



## doctrine

While projected cash flow is down this year to $3.60 to $3.90, management just reiterated guidance despite being off track this last quarter, saying that it will be made up in Q4. Q4 could be really good.

The other bullish sign is some analysts have a 2018 cash flow forecast of $4.30 to $4.50 a share. That would be 10% above the 2016 high and nearly 20% above this year. Remember, they had a lot of acquisition costs related to Spectra which come out of cash flow. It was a massive acquisition!

Even at the low end of the per share cash flow estimate of $4.30, and with 8% dividend growth, they're at 56-58% payout next year. That's a pretty big drop and puts them in line with other major pipelines but at a big discount.

Here's some analysis from John Heinzel that got my attention: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/glo...be-down-but-its-sure-not-out/article36869448/

I wouldn't discount management until they fail to meet their guidance. Also, if they lower their growth target below 5%, its probably not worth being in at this price. But like I said, it is looking like good risk reward here. It would be even better if it stopped hitting daily 52 week lows.


----------



## AltaRed

Part of the issue is a general lack of consensus amongst analysts and money managers on the amount of equity and debt that must be issued in 2018/2019 to pay for much of that $31B in "secured" projects, especially the Line 3 replacement biggie. Indeed, cash flow/share projections are highly uncertain because ENB has not really finalized any plans on funding...notwithstanding their charts in their September investor presentation. They are close to being tapped* out in the issuance of preferred shares I suspect (one of the biggest, if not the biggest, issuers of prefs in the Cdn market).

My perspective is most of the current discussion around ENB will dissipate within the next month. It will help when/if the Minnesota clowns stop being a-holes and just get on with letting Line 3 go, but that seems destined to continue for months.

* It is apparent in the 2017 price discount of ENB prefs in the market vis-a-vis TRP's prefs.


----------



## CPA Candidate

ENB's three year total return is now negative and the 5 year is nothing to write home about. They invest massive amounts of capital to generate overall low returns and tend to have a lot of volatility in quarterly earnings. I bought some shares 2 years ago for $44 which I thought was their nadir, and here we are again.

That being said, this probably represents a buying opportunity if for nothing more than rebound of 10-15%.


----------



## Numbersman61

I wonder whether some of the weakness relates to former Spectra shareholders who are selling the shares received in the merger.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

CPA Candidate said:


> ENB's three year total return is now negative and the 5 year is nothing to write home about...


Specifically, at current price $44.16, I see total returns of:
1 yr -14.5%
2 yr 0%
3 yr -2.7%
5 yr +36.8%
10 yr +228.9%

From: https://web.tmxmoney.com/charting.php?qm_page=53654&qm_symbol=ENB


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> While projected cash flow is down this year to $3.60 to $3.90, management just reiterated guidance despite being off track this last quarter, saying that it will be made up in Q4. Q4 could be really good.


Thanks. Yes I saw they're off track, but if Q4 is expected to be very strong, they can certainly make it.



> I wouldn't discount management until they fail to meet their guidance. Also, if they lower their growth target below 5%, its probably not worth being in at this price. But like I said, it is looking like good risk reward here. It would be even better if it stopped hitting daily 52 week lows.


I agree -- shouldn't be hard on management unless they actually fail to meet their guidance.

The merger has a huge effect on their financial situation and the company is in flux. A new pace has yet to emerge -- and maybe some investors are not willing to hold shares while that takes shape. It's very hard to benchmark them and evaluate these quarterly results with the disruption of the merger. I can see the logic in stepping away and letting them sort it all out.

I still have a 20K position, though I'm not really a stock picker. My position is part of my 5-pack.


----------



## jargey3000




----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Thanks? for the musical interlude Jargey (I like the studio version).

His September 23 concert in Detroit was awesome :encouragement:


----------



## jargey3000

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Thanks? for the musical interlude Jargey (I like the studio version).
> 
> His September 23 concert in Detroit was awesome :encouragement:


_mon plaisir, monsieur_

ahm-a-go all in at around $39-ish...


----------



## My Own Advisor

Unless they cut the dividend...not worried. 

Are people really going to stop heating their homes? Using natural gas to cook with? Use their hot water tanks?

Hardly. Could be just me.

(Edit - to back up my claim, bought some more today).


----------



## Beaver101

jargey3000 said:


> ...
> 
> ahm-a-*go all in at **around $39-ish*...


 ... are you sure now? Deal or no deal there?


----------



## peterk

In for 50 shares.

Let the plunge continue! :stupid:


----------



## Spidey

I've been picking away at this but I don't know whether to "back up the truck" or put on the brakes. Seems there must be some selling activity by some large financial players for this sort of drop to take place. However, my yardstick in these situations is usually - will this company still be operating profitably in 20 years? Barring some futuristic technology that causes us all to haul our furnaces and hot-water heaters to the curb my answer is yes. As such, leaning toward picking up more shares if the plunge continues.


----------



## Eder

It's trading 4 mill shares/day...it's not us retail morons buying those numbers...funds are backing up the truck.


----------



## like_to_retire

Eder said:


> It's trading 4 mill shares/day...it's not us retail morons buying those numbers...funds are backing up the truck.


Presumably there must be an equal number of sellers with their trucks set on dump. Who are they?

And if there is actually so much more demand than availability, why doesn't all that demand cause the price to rise?

These sort of weird price anomalies happen once in a while and I never understand them. But I almost always participate. Sometimes I win, sometimes not.

ltr


----------



## RBull

like_to_retire said:


> Presumably there must be an equal number of sellers with their trucks set on dump. Who are they?
> 
> And if there is actually so much more demand than availability, why doesn't all that demand cause the price to rise?
> 
> These sort of weird price anomalies happen once in a while and I never understand them. But I almost always participate. Sometimes I win, sometimes not.
> 
> ltr


I have the same questions ltr. I also think you're right about sporadic anomolies and a chance of being right. Time will tell if this is really an anomoly.


----------



## zylon

I've heard that TD is selling, and RY is buying.

Have no way to verify this.


----------



## jargey3000

Eder said:


> It's trading 4 mill shares/day...it's not us retail morons buying those numbers...


...AHEM. speak for yourself!!.....


----------



## Koogie

jargey3000 said:


> ...AHEM. speak for yourself!!.....


Yeah... 0.0001 of that was me !!
:untroubled:


----------



## My Own Advisor

peterk said:


> In for 50 shares.
> 
> Let the plunge continue! :stupid:


Agreed. Say TD, BNS, EMA, FTS, and T - all go down to 52-week lows....would people sell??? Not here. I simply wish I had more cash on hand to buy when stocks like this are at 52-week lows. 

Looking forward to 2018 TFSA room - 6 weeks to go!!


----------



## Eder

like_to_retire said:


> Presumably there must be an equal number of sellers with their trucks set on dump. Who are they?
> 
> And if there is actually so much more demand than availability, why doesn't all that demand cause the price to rise?
> 
> These sort of weird price anomalies happen once in a while and I never understand them. But I almost always participate. Sometimes I win, sometimes not.
> 
> ltr



After a less than stellar Spectra transition etc I think many funds want out, but my point was just as many funds want in at$44 it seems. January will see if ENB is wearing underwear imo.


----------



## jargey3000

...had a bit of a bonce back there, on friday...
waddaya think -will it dip lower again, or have we had it?...


----------



## zylon

jargey3000 said:


> ...had a bit of a bonce back there, on friday...
> waddaya think -will it dip lower again, or have we had it?...


If you think it's a "_must own_", buy 1/3 position now, and watch.
Otherwise, wait for a bounce around $40.
If it doesn't get there - no worries.

Myself, I'm not touching it!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=10


----------



## doctrine

There will be a bottom at some point. Hard to say if Friday was the one or not. Plenty of funds and investors selling for tax loss purposes. 

In fact, selling may be highest now because many of those same names want to buy back in before the end of the year, so they are keeping in mind the 30 day waiting period to re-buy to keep the tax loss. Therefore, selling may actually subside very soon and there could be a lot of buying in December.


----------



## AltaRed

Or they buy a substitute, e.g. TRP. 

That said, my take is also that tax loss selling is peaking about now if for no other reason than money managers want their 'year end' portfolios in place by Dec 15th (2017). Nothing much gets done after that as the xmas rush takes hold.


----------



## john.cray

It seems like there's a bounce off the last two trading days. Maybe we hit the bottom?

Is anyone else still waiting for a further movement downwards?


----------



## jargey3000

tweedle-dee


----------



## james4beach

Volume on this rebound has been reasonably good, which is encouraging. I'd keep watching the volume. Down days on high volume are a bad sign and usually indicate institutional dumping.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENB.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p55392000569


----------



## Eder

james4beach said:


> Down days on high volume are a bad sign and usually indicate institutional dumping.
> 
> ]


And institutional buying.


----------



## jargey3000

touching $46.90 right now....(shoulda bought in under $45 I s'pose...)


----------



## Beaver101

^ or $39'ish ... lol. To buy or not to buy ... :barbershop_quartet_


----------



## Eder

Best part about being on the sidelines you never lose or make any money.


----------



## james4beach

james4beach said:


> Volume on this rebound has been reasonably good, which is encouraging. I'd keep watching the volume. Down days on high volume are a bad sign and usually indicate institutional dumping.
> 
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENB.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p55392000569


This was another day of solid buying. Yes, all trades require a buyer and a seller, but the reason for looking at volume & direction is because it reveals net pressure and enthusiasm.


----------



## john.cray

Seems like this train has departed. $47.76 is a long way from $44.00.


----------



## AltaRed

john.cray said:


> Seems like this train has departed. $47.76 is a long way from $44.00.


It is much further away from $57 than it is from $44. This seems like a better place to buy IF you think the rally is sustainable. A look at a 3 year chart will tell you that it didn't test a $40 bottom, while a 1 year chart suggests it has broken through the trend line and could sustain itself. OTOH, if it turns over in the next few weeks, it could test a new bottom below $45. All said though, the dividend yield is good enough to 'get paid to wait' if one bought in now.


----------



## john.cray

AltaRed said:


> It is much further away from $57 than it is from $44. This seems like a better place to buy IF you think the rally is sustainable.


Do you mean that it seems a better place to buy because it has bounced off and started to go back up? That is - you have an indication of a trend reversal that makes you think so. Just trying to understand the reasoning.

Otherwise you're right about the dividend - it's at 5.17%. It is better than the 4.5% that was at the early 2016 drop.

AltaRed, are you also watching this stock for an entry and where do you stand right now - wait or go in?


----------



## AltaRed

john.cray said:


> Do you mean that it seems a better place to buy because it has bounced off and started to go back up? That is - you have an indication of a trend reversal that makes you think so. Just trying to understand the reasoning.


From my perspective, yes. The odds are better than even that it is on a trend up. Some will say it is better to work off 100 day, or 200 day, or 50 day moving averages. I have no idea EXCEPT I believe no one should buy on the way down. Betting on the bottom is a crap shoot and it's only bragging rights in hindsight.



> AltaRed, are you also watching this stock for an entry and where do you stand right now - wait or go in?


Not really watching it except to participate in the conversation. I've held a full position for many years and will continue to do so.


----------



## londoncalling

I bought at $46.56. At the time I admitted that it was probably a little early. I would agree that hitting the bottom consistently is virtually impossible. Psychologically I do much better buying on the way down. I have a hard time mentally buying a stock that is rising. It just isn't in my psyche. I would agree with AR that a trend reversal can provide better evidence that the stock will see more upside in the short term. I always buy in tranches and am prepared to average down once or twice if needed. If the stock takes off I am content to hold a partial position. There is some risk that the bottom may always be much further down than my purchase price. I am comfortable with that risk as there is there is also the risk that I may not get to purchase at a much lower price. I suggest one picks a price and lives with either being assigned or missing out. Not sure if this is just a temporary trend reversal but am glad I established a position in this stock as its been on my wishlist for quite some time.

Cheers


----------



## doctrine

I bought in at $46.75 or so. I think a fair value is closer to $60. Not that common to see a quality company like this in the bear house. Now, I just hope they use investor day to reset the narrative. The dividend policy shouldn't drive the company, it should be vice-versa.


----------



## AltaRed

They need to show good EPS growth. Without that, they are just another momentum stock.


----------



## jargey3000

Cyber-Monday Sale: marked down 2% today.


----------



## scientist

Anyone here consider EEP or EEQ (NYSE) as momentum/value plays? The market is tough now and the company is holding a lot of debt, which is generating a lot of sell offs, and cash flows are off the charts, but they have decreased their dividend in response to this, and the companies are backed by ENB. However, the price is at a steep discount compared to what it was a few years ago. Thoughts?


----------



## humble_pie

parties with registered accounts at BMO or RY could hold enbridge shares long on canadian side of the account while - in the same account - selling ENB call options in USD on US options exchanges. 

the dividend is paid in CAD, hence the holding on canadian side. However the above dual-currency covered call write would permit the accumulation of option premiums in USD. 

the above can only be done at BMO or RY


----------



## doctrine

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/pres...plan-and-financial-outlook-announces-dividend

New strategic plan out, plus $1.5B common share issued at $44.84. Very interesting. The marketing of this plan is that no further common shares are required to fund the plan until 2020, and there is deleveraging. The bad news is that they were dead wrong on their last plan, which included optimistic growth estimates of up to 14-16% which got people really excited. Hard to say which way this will run the stock. If closes above $44.84 tomorrow, it would be a good sign.


----------



## doctrine

Last note: ACCFO of $4.15 to $4.45 with a dividend of $2.684 means a 2018 projected payout ratio of 62%. This is slightly higher than my estimate of 58% but it is still pretty decent. Still, there is something not to like about a company that issues shares and increases its dividend at the same time. Sigh. Financial engineering. Still holding though.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Well, they seem to be doing OK - ENB dividend hike by 10%
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...ssets-following-spectra-deal/article37132541/

"The company has $22-billion worth of projects it intends to complete through 2020."


----------



## Eder

Raising dividend while issuing shares seems pretty shady,I don't like it and I doubt anyone else will either.


----------



## john.cray

If they have new issues at a price of $44.84, then how come the stock opened for $49.00 today? Can someone explain please.


----------



## Numbersman61

john.cray said:


> If they have new issues at a price of $44.84, then how come the stock opened for $49.00 today? Can someone explain please.


They finally announced their business plan which included a dividend increase of 10%. The private placement of stock strengthened their balance sheet.


----------



## john.cray

But where did those $44.84 dollar shares go? Why couldn't we buy them?


----------



## gardner

I am always confused by, and a little suspicious of the relationship between ENB and ENF. They issued 500M in ENF, but increased the dividend on ENB? Presumably the dividend on ENF stays the same (currently ~7% yield). I own ENB, not ENF but mainly because I can trade in $US, not for any reason connected to the business structure.


----------



## gardner

john.cray said:


> But where did those $44.84 dollar shares go? Why couldn't we buy them?


I think the $44.84 number is for new convertible debentures -- initially subscription receipts. The deal isn't done yet.



> Enbridge [...] said it is issuing subscription receipts in a private placement to three large institutional investors for $44.84 each. It did not name the buyers. Close of the deal is scheduled for on Dec. 6.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...ssets-following-spectra-deal/article37132541/


----------



## like_to_retire

gardner said:


> I think the $44.84 number is for new convertible debentures -- initially subscription receipts. The deal isn't done yet.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...ssets-following-spectra-deal/article37132541/


I don't see anywhere that it says these subscription receipts are for convertible debentures? A subscription receipt usually offers the right (but not the obligation) to be exchanged for common stock at a predetermined price within a specified period. All that stock will be dilutive if it's subscribed, but I can't see where they say it's debentures?

ltr


----------



## Numbersman61

gardner said:


> I am always confused by, and a little suspicious of the relationship between ENB and ENF. They issued 500M in ENF, but increased the dividend on ENB? Presumably the dividend on ENF stays the same (currently ~7% yield). I own ENB, not ENF but mainly because I can trade in $US, not for any reason connected to the business structure.


The dividend on ENF increased by 10%


----------



## Mechanic

I own ENF and ENB but sold ENB this morning after it spiked. Will likely rebuy if gap fills but I bought ENB 3 wks ago for divs and saw an opportunity for a years worth right now.


----------



## james4beach

Eder said:


> Raising dividend while issuing shares seems pretty shady,I don't like it and I doubt anyone else will either.


I don't like it either. I know the share price is up today but I already had concern about their dividend amount.

Raising the dividend further stresses their cashflow, and issuing shares dilutes equity (obviously).


----------



## doctrine

Issuing shares and raising the dividend is like sucking and blowing at the same time, to quote an analyst on BNN. In any case, I think it's a buy as it is one of the very, very few large cap quality companies on sale. Growth is on par with the banks and more than double that of telecoms, yet trades at a 20-30% discount. Hopefully they stick to their guidance of no new common shares until 2020.


----------



## humble_pie

so far i've built a hedged option position controlling $45,000, or 1100 shares, until january 2020. 

because 2 of the 3 positions are options that were sold, the net out-of-pocket expense to myself has been a measley $1,457.

have not bought any shares yet, although i might do so. I'm somewhat reluctant to rely on the dividend. On the other hand, it would be extremely rare for a company as big & as stodgy as enbridge to suddenly start talking up a frivolous increase in its dividend.

in january 2009, in the depths of the global financial collapse, two signs that the collapse was troughing & better times could be seen ahead, were the dividend increases announced by BCE & also by the CPR. 


.


----------



## AlwaysLearning

*Time to back up the truck?*

I have been adding to my position with Enbridge both in November and again now. It is my worst performer for the past couple years but I keep asking myself the same questions about if is a company I want to own long term and the answer is yes so I buy more.

Allocation wise I am now at my limit and I should not be buying anymore but it is one of the few large "low risk" Canadian companies that I feel is a value right at the moment.

I am wondering if anyone is currently selling at the current prices and what your justification might be or if others are taking this opportunity to buy more shares.


----------



## james4beach

This is brutal, ENB keeps falling. For all you "dividend investors", the dividend yield is now over 6%

How can one of the best established large caps in Canada yield over 6%?


----------



## john.cray

james4beach said:


> This is brutal, ENB keeps falling. For all you "dividend investors", the dividend yield is now over 6%
> 
> How can one of the best established large caps in Canada yield over 6%?


By being undervalued, no? Isn't this a good buying opportunity if you had the cash?


----------



## james4beach

john.cray said:


> By being undervalued, no? Isn't this a good buying opportunity if you had the cash?


The dividend could also be at risk


----------



## SixesAndSevens

james4beach said:


> This is brutal, ENB keeps falling. For all you "dividend investors", the dividend yield is now over 6%
> How can one of the best established large caps in Canada yield over 6%?


ENB is over leveraged.
they took on a lot of debt and did some financial engineering.
I cannot understand all of it but part of it was the spin off of the income fund.

there are also sectorial problems going on.
even Trans Canada stock is down a lot in last few weeks.

among those two Trans Canada is better I feel.
if anybody wants to buy Enbridge go with the preferred shares not the commons


----------



## Eder

Lol best wait for higher prices?


----------



## john.cray

james4beach said:


> The dividend could also be at risk


Trying to understand that exact perspective from your other posts.
Do you see the risk of a dividend cut today to be higher than it was say a month ago when the stock was around $50? If so then why?

If the market was to decide that this stock is worth $40 tomorrow and then $30 the day after would you consider the risk of a dividend cut even higher?


----------



## james4beach

john.cray said:


> Trying to understand that exact perspective from your other posts.
> Do you see the risk of a dividend cut today to be higher than it was say a month ago when the stock was around $50? If so then why?


It's always possible the market knows something I don't know or haven't figured out yet.

The stock market is a dangerous place. Sure it's possible the market is mispricing it and it's great value, but it's also possible that others know something I don't and have very good reasons to sell.


----------



## dubmac

These are tough times for ENB. (I started a position with ENB last year).
I am looking 5 years down the road, however. I'm adding to my position (I have a bid in today having missed yesterday's low). Hopefully the one today will be a success - if not try tomorrow.
Here is the Morningstar analysis - dated Jan 22, 2018


While crude pipelines are Enbridge’s bread and butter, the company operates a diverse energy portfolio. Gas distribution operations benefit from regulated returns and provide the company with reliable cash flows. Enbridge also operates natural gas pipelines and processing assets that supplement its crude pipeline network. Future natural gas pipeline projects benefit from long-term contracts that
are tied into emerging projects

The company intends to increase its annual dividend a 10% over the next three years and has maintained an average distributable cash coverage ratio of approximately 3 times over the past three years. Overall, Enbridge is in a strong position to benefit from the growing oil sands supply, which we expect to outstrip pipeline takeaway capacity in the near term. We expect the Line 3 Replacement to help; we project it to be in service by 2020 and fuel tremendous growth for the company. We believe the stock is undervalued based on the company's vast growth portfolio, highlighted by the lucrative natural gas projects associated with the Spectra acquisition and the Line 3 Replacement.

Enbridge is a rare triple threat, boasting a wide moat, an attractive 5.4% dividend yield, and 30% upside. While the market continues to place too much on emphasis on the dividend and overlook the impact that the growth portfolio will have on future cash flows and the balance sheet, the time is right for long-term investors to capitalize on the stock's considerable upside.​


----------



## Koogie

Or that could just be FUD.

""Enbridge has paid dividends for over 64 years to its shareholders.""


----------



## dubmac

I do not know what FUD is....


----------



## james4beach

FUD = 'fear uncertainty doubt'



Koogie said:


> Or that could just be FUD.
> 
> ""Enbridge has paid dividends for over 64 years to its shareholders.""


The issue isn't whether they will pay a dividend, but rather its amount and growth rate. Everyone got this "dividend growth investing" thing into their head, to the point where any slowdown in dividend growth rate could become a reason to dump a stock.


----------



## john.cray

james4beach said:


> It's always possible the market knows something I don't know or haven't figured out yet.
> 
> The stock market is a dangerous place. Sure it's possible the market is mispricing it and it's great value, but it's also possible that others know something I don't and have very good reasons to sell.


My point is this - the market price today or tomorrow (short term) represents a price that a number of people have agreed to exchange shares at. The way I see it, the company's fundamentals have not changed for such a short period of time. Thus if you considered that the dividend that ENB pays at a market price of $50 a month ago as "safe", then it should be just as "safe" at a market price of $40, no? I.e. the market price doesn't necessarily reflect the intrinsic value of the stock, which in turn determines the dividend paid.


----------



## carson

james4beach said:


> It's always possible the market knows something I don't know or haven't figured out yet.
> 
> The stock market is a dangerous place. Sure it's possible the market is mispricing it and it's great value, but it's also possible that others know something I don't and have very good reasons to sell.


This is why I ended up here, looking to see if anyone had any insight as to why ENB continues to fall. Everything looks good to me, yes they are highly leveraged but also good opportunity for growth with all the new capital projects coming online in the next few years.

Maybe people are thinking that all the new oil production in the US will reduce demand for Canadian oil going through Line 3? 

I plan to hold at least 2-4 years to see how much they can grown earnings with the Spectra merger and Line 3. Would love to hear if anyone has any advice as to why that would be a bad idea.

Cheers


----------



## james4beach

carson said:


> I plan to hold at least 2-4 years to see how much they can grown earnings with the Spectra merger and Line 3. Would love to hear if anyone has any advice as to why that would be a bad idea.


In my opinion, stock price movements in the span of 1 to 2 years are basically random. Just the change in mood can cause a 30% move in stock prices.


----------



## robfordlives

Very little difference between this piece of junk and KMI which tanked in 2016


----------



## cainvest

Last quarter earnings come out on Feb 15/16, we'll see what happens there. The stock has been on the decline for 9 months and missed estimates for the last 4 quarters.


----------



## m3s

Started a position a few days ago. D'oh!


----------



## james4beach

m3s I'm feeling the pain too... it's one of the core stocks in my 5 pack.

I voiced my concerns about their cashflow projections back in November:
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/9606-Enbridge-(ENB-TO)/page29

I noted that their management guidance for 2017 total ACFFO seemed higher than was reasonable. I guess we'll see when the next financial report is out.


----------



## Koogie

james4beach said:


> The dividend could also be at risk





james4beach said:


> The issue isn't whether they will pay a dividend,....


Perhaps a little more care in what you say is in order then.


----------



## AlwaysLearning

I added to my position with ENB just on Monday... (Not a great call in hindsight)
I am trying to remove emotion from the paper losses and am thinking of adding more to get my allocation back up.
Just moving some funds around to be able to buy more.... 
I don't think I am trying to catch a falling knife....


----------



## doctrine

This pullback has nothing to do with company fundamentals. This is a sort of "perfect storm" of negative sentiment that applies to most Canadian energy companies in particular but many apply to others either directly or indirectly:

-Negative policies on energy (carbon tax)
-Negative policies on pipelines (BC bans bitumen, etc)
-Negative tax policies discouraging investment (higher corporate taxes here, lower US)
-Higher interest rates, primarily in the US
-Negative interest rate outlook (higher rates expected)
-Higher Canadian dollar = less attractive to buy/invest for foreigners (its more expensive)
-Negative TSX trend - one of worst stock indexes in the world. 

There are probably a few more. It's no surprise ENB and others are tanking. Even though they are heavily weighted to the US, and are making their investments.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Stock prices go up and they go down. Not much you can do.

Do we really think ENB is at risk??


----------



## carson

*finger lickin good*



My Own Advisor said:


> Stock prices go up and they go down. Not much you can do.
> 
> Do we really think ENB is at risk??


Nothing I can see makes me think it is at risk other than the sharp declines recently. Makes me wonder what does the market see that I don't? 


I'm considering taking a larger position if it goes much lower. Ex dividend date is Feb 14th and the current yield is 6.1%.


----------



## cainvest

AlwaysLearning said:


> Just moving some funds around to be able to buy more....
> I don't think I am trying to catch a falling knife....


It's been on a fairly steep and steady decline since the 24th, hard to say when a bottom will hit.
Looks like it just broke through it's low closing price from last year and closing in on the lowest of the 2015-2016 levels.


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> Here is the Morningstar analysis - dated Jan 22, 2018
> 
> Enbridge is a rare triple threat, boasting a wide moat, an attractive 5.4% dividend yield, and 30% upside. While the market continues to place too much on emphasis on the dividend and overlook the impact that the growth portfolio will have on future cash flows and the balance sheet, the time is right for long-term investors to capitalize on the stock's considerable upside.​



sometimes malapropisms are wonderfully accurate. The ambiguity of this one is accurate alright. Whether it's triple threat or triple treat, enbridge has got its followers on tenterhooks


----------



## My Own Advisor

carson said:


> Nothing I can see makes me think it is at risk other than the sharp declines recently. Makes me wonder what does the market see that I don't?
> 
> 
> I'm considering taking a larger position if it goes much lower. Ex dividend date is Feb 14th and the current yield is 6.1%.


This is the thing. I mean, are people going to stop using natural gas full-stop? Good luck with that. I'm happy to buy as it gets lower.


----------



## leeder

My Own Advisor said:


> Stock prices go up and they go down. Not much you can do.
> 
> Do we really think ENB is at risk??


Will the company go belly up? No. However, that doesn't mean they won't experience pains in the next few years. As noted in other members' posts, ENB's balance sheet is highly leveraged. Management had to do an equity issue in order to shore up its balance sheet and increase its dividend. Even with the equity issue, I wonder if it's sufficient to continue its capital expenditures while maintaining its pace of 10% dividend growth. If all goes as planned, maybe they can. However, as doctrine indicates, political issues, tax changes, and even pipeline leaks, could throw a wrench in well laid out plans. I also wonder if management is getting too caught up with appeasing shareholders with dividend increases. As a shareholder of ENB, I hope they aren't biting off more than they can chew!


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> Last quarter earnings come out on Feb 15/16, we'll see what happens there. The stock has been on the decline for 9 months and missed estimates for the last 4 quarters.


actually for the last 6 quaters....
However _The consensus recommendation is 2.31 or Outperform As of January 27, 2018 with 17 of 17 total analysts reporting.

This is an upward trend from the previous rating of Hold (2.54) As of June 8, 2012._

12month proce target is +28.6%, the lowest price among 16 analysts was $50
Forward P/E of 20.4 represents a 16% discount to it's 5 years average of 24.3


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> 12month proce target is +28.6%, the lowest price among 16 analysts was $50
> Forward P/E of 20.4 represents a 16% discount to it's 5 years average of 24.3


Pretty sure it'll rebound but when and how much father down will it go before that happens are the big questions.
I'll be keeping an eye on it for some bottom feeding but I'll likely wait until the results come out and see the trend that follows.


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> Pretty sure it'll rebound but when and how much father down will it go before that happens are the big questions.
> I'll be keeping an eye on it for some bottom feeding but I'll likely wait until the results come out and see the trend that follows.


Yeap, the big question  ... I bought too early, still have one more thanche to invest and not sure when to buy


----------



## Dilbert

I'm in with both feet, ENB and ENF! Long term play for me.


----------



## james4beach

ENB to the rescue today, wow!!

My five pack is only down half as much as the TSX today.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Dilbert said:


> I'm in with both feet, ENB and ENF! Long term play for me.


+1 ...letting my DRIP buy more shares, commission-free, cheaper!!


----------



## carson

james4beach said:


> ENB to the rescue today, wow!!
> 
> My five pack is only down half as much as the TSX today.


ENB did the same for me as I have a large holding now in my TFSA. ENB was already down 12.5% YTD so I think maybe it was more of the market catching up.

The markets are too volatile for me to put more cash in at this point though. I'll let my DRIP purchase more units and hope for the best. I still really like this company over the mid-long term.


----------



## cainvest

Had a little end of day rally today, now I wonder if it'll return to it's slow slide down again.


----------



## john.cray

Another day another -3% down. Current yield of 6.38%. Good time to add?


----------



## gibor365

john.cray said:


> Another day another -3% down. Current yield of 6.38%. Good time to add?


I placed last trenche limit buy at $42, it's look very oversold


----------



## gibor365

ENB has earnings on 16th... Depends on the result may add to my position....


----------



## cainvest

ENB closing in on it's five year low now ...


----------



## gibor365

cainvest said:


> ENB closing in on it's five year low now ...


Not really , 52 weeks low was $42. I'm planning to add last trenche when it drops below $42 .... maybe tomorrow?!


----------



## cainvest

Just eyeballing the chart ... There is one little dip in 2015 at 41.52, then another 41.87 in 2013 and after that it's at 2012 levels.


----------



## jargey3000

I've never owned ENB, but it seems to held by A LOT of CMF members.
Good time to take a few $$ from my 'pile'o'cash' & dip a toe now...at these levels, as they say...?


----------



## ExtremeAthlete

jargey3000 said:


> I've never owned ENB, but it seems to held by A LOT of CMF members.
> Good time to take a few $$ from my 'pile'o'cash' & dip a toe now...at these levels, as they say...?


Why? It's low for a reason. The dividend payout ratio is at a 10 year high of 146.2% of EPS. I would stay away.

Check out MTY Food Group Inc instead.


----------



## james4beach

jargey3000 said:


> I've never owned ENB, but it seems to held by A LOT of CMF members.
> Good time to take a few $$ from my 'pile'o'cash' & dip a toe now...at these levels, as they say...?


It's owned by a lot of Canadians. ENB is one of the top weights in the TSX.

6.6% dividend yield looks weird.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> It's owned by a lot of Canadians. ENB is one of the top weights in the TSX.
> 
> 6.6% dividend yield looks weird.


And they promissed to raise dividends 10% annually until 2020 . Not sure how it's gonna work


----------



## cainvest

gibor365 said:


> And they promissed to raise dividends 10% annually until 2020 . Not sure how it's gonna work


If the price keeps falling it'll be a 10% yield before 2020.


----------



## jargey3000

ExtremeAthlete said:


> Why? It's low for a reason. The dividend payout ratio is at a 10 year high of 146.2% of EPS. I would stay away.
> 
> Check out MTY Food Group Inc instead.


thanks. I might go "all in" on that one


----------



## doctrine

New 52 week low? Likely adding here tomorrow or Fri.


----------



## gibor365

doctrine said:


> New 52 week low? Likely adding here tomorrow or Fri.


I added today a little bit.....


----------



## londoncalling

currently out of town. Will likely put in a bid for Monday.


----------



## agent99

At one time I owned ENB, but no longer. Too risky for me:

https://www.google.com/search?q=enb...rome..69i57.9626j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


----------



## jargey3000

$40.45 -$40.83 today....
For those (few) of us that have not owned it all along....have you jumped in lately, at these levels?
Or, if not in ...feel it's better to stay away?


----------



## Dilbert

I wouldn’t have an issue jumping in, but I am a buy and hold type of investor. Full disclosure: I own quite a bit of ENF and some ENB.


----------



## Synergy

Never held, staying away at these levels. Maybe in a couple years or if we get a serious market correction in the interim.


----------



## doctrine

I bought 60 more shares at $41.


----------



## robfordlives

There are just so many headwinds now against the pipelines and going into a rising interest rate environment + just think of what would happen with any kind of major spill. It would be disastrous and unfortunately I see a Kinder Morgan in the making as any bad news destroys the stock and any good news is met with meh. Also seems as though people think Line 3 replacement is a done deal where I think that is far from reality. What would that do to the price?


----------



## AltaRed

I don't know whether the market is pricing in Line 3 replacement or not. It can be looked at 2 ways.... Replace Line 3 with huge capital expenditures and hope it is accretive in the long run (earnings growth), or hope it doesn't go and thus avoid further strain on the balance sheet. It may well be that investors are 'agnostic' about this stock right now.

Disclosure: I still own a full position, but am thankful I took profits some years back to cut back an overweight position.


----------



## Eder

Last time I sold Enbridge was in 2015 at $63. I've recently doubled my position. I usually buy too soon but am patient.


----------



## gibor365

doctrine said:


> I bought 60 more shares at $41.


I bought at $41.70 .... probably too early .... we'll see.... simply did 19K RRSP contribution and wanted to start deploying money.... 
Also bought MCD at 147.10 and so far this trade worked much better


----------



## ExtremeAthlete

Doesn't any one do fundamental analysis here? Too much "group non-think" going on. Buying on the dips is hardly a good approach.

This stock is down for a reason.

-EPS has been flat for 10 years and yet dividends have quadrupled. This is not sustainable.
-CapEx has tripled.
-FCF is non-existent. Well, look at that liabilities have gone up. That's how they're paying the dividends. I didn't know this group liked to borrow money in a rising interest rate environment.

Snap out of people.


----------



## john.cray

This was an interesting "flash crash" of more than 5% -- down to 40.05. Can't find any news.


----------



## AltaRed

john.cray said:


> This was an interesting "flash crash" of more than 5% -- down to 40.05. Can't find any news.


Apparently a lot of pipelines are down on the NYSE as well. May be some new US Fed interest rate speculation. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/f...-of-half-point-rate-hike-next-week-2018-03-14

Added: Interest rate sensitive stocks, especially with heavy debt burdens, will be most affected.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I think this is the problem of the day...today.

https://www.ferc.gov/media/news-releases/2018/2018-1/03-15-18-G-2.asp#.WqqjtMuWyid


----------



## humble_pie

i have not yet bought a single share of enbridge. Have 20 longterm options - calls & puts leveraging 2000 shares - arranged in a hedge formation that is very slightly tilted to the bullish side. But only slightly.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Cash flow (from operations) has doubled in 5 years. This is good. Do we really think people are going to stop using natural gas tomorrow, next month or next year? I suppose I'm being too simplistic. 

Same with KMI. While cash flow (from operations) is only 4.6 B vs. ENB at 6.6 B, I'm surprised people think this is end of oil and gas distribution.


----------



## humble_pie

^^


tis the debt mon, tis the debt


----------



## AltaRed

My Own Advisor said:


> Cash flow (from operations) has doubled in 5 years.


Cash flow per share has doubled?


----------



## doctrine

This may be a classic overreaction. It actually looks like there won't be a big impact to the decision, which will probably take years to be settled due to appeals anyway. It's not a non-issue, but it's not a huge one. This might affect ENB a little more than TRP. The companies will have time to reorganize and reinvest cash flow in the mean time in the appropriate corporate structures. I would like to see more simplifications of corporate structure in these companies anyway, so maybe this is a good thing. TRP, for example, owns basically all of the Columbia Pipeline acquisition under their main corporate structure and not a MLP, which is why it wasn't down as much.


----------



## My Own Advisor

AltaRed said:


> Cash flow per share has doubled?


No, sorry, total cash from operations. Was about $3.3 B 5 years ago.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Are we talking about this AR?
https://www.ferc.gov/media/news-releases/2018/2018-1/03-15-18-G-2.asp#.Wqrb7Wrwapq

Another blogger buddy of mine, Tawcan, just sent this. 

I mean, are pipelines going to be extinct in 10 years? I doubt it. Again, I can't predict the future but investors are losing their minds.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I haven't listened to it yet. Just passing this stuff over to you guys from another site. I have no idea what it means but I also don't own ENB either so I am not in too much of a hurry to figure it out.

https://www.bnn.ca/pipeline-stocks-...gulators-kill-key-income-tax-credit-1.1028245


----------



## Tawcan

My Own Advisor said:


> Are we talking about this AR?
> https://www.ferc.gov/media/news-releases/2018/2018-1/03-15-18-G-2.asp#.Wqrb7Wrwapq
> 
> Another blogger buddy of mine, Tawcan, just sent this.
> 
> I mean, are pipelines going to be extinct in 10 years? I doubt it. Again, I can't predict the future but investors are losing their minds.


I'm hoping for the stock price to go down more so I can buy more.


----------



## AltaRed

My Own Advisor said:


> No, sorry, total cash from operations. Was about $3.3 B 5 years ago.


WADR, absolute numbers mean little to nothing. It's the cash flow/share that is meaningful. You can double cash flow, but if market float has also doubled, nothing has changed.


----------



## AltaRed

My Own Advisor said:


> Are we talking about this AR?
> https://www.ferc.gov/media/news-releases/2018/2018-1/03-15-18-G-2.asp#.Wqrb7Wrwapq
> 
> Another blogger buddy of mine, Tawcan, just sent this.
> 
> I mean, are pipelines going to be extinct in 10 years? I doubt it. Again, I can't predict the future but investors are losing their minds.


That appears to be the cause of the swoon, but it's overblown. Tolls are meant to recover allowable costs. If corporate income tax payments go down due to the tax law, so should tolls go down proportionately for a zero sum game.


----------



## milhouse

Tawcan said:


> I'm hoping for the stock price to go down more so I can buy more.


Any fear that we're missing something, though, even if it's a long term hold? 
I've dollar cost average down myself, dabbling at these steps down which are hopefully at "sale pricing". Analysts are generally positive. Debt is the obvious risk but IMO, it's addressable. 
I'm just wondering if we're missing something or underestimating longer term downside potential.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Tawcan said:


> I'm hoping for the stock price to go down more so I can buy more.


Spoken like a true investor


----------



## james4beach

With a stock index, I think it's always a good idea to buy a falling knife because an aggregate index will never go to zero, and has a high probability of trending higher over the years.

An individual stock on the other hand... makes me more nervous. There are plenty of companies that used to be great, that turned into horrible stocks. I hope Enbridge is not one of these.


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> With a stock index, I think it's always a good idea to buy a falling knife because an aggregate index will never go to zero, and has a high probability of trending higher over the years.
> 
> An individual stock on the other hand... makes me more nervous. There are plenty of companies that used to be great, that turned into horrible stocks. I hope Enbridge is not one of these.




i think though that the conventional meaning of "falling knife" is the opposite. A single-theme stock can easily plunge so the adage goes Never Buy a Falling Knife.


.


----------



## milhouse

Article on the G&M (though behind a paywall) that got comment from three fund managers: One adding ENB, one shorting ENB, and one holding ENB, and from ENB's CFO. Summary:

Michele Robitaille, Guardian Capital - Adding
2017 transformative and tumultuous due to the Spectra aquisition, which is considered a good move
$10B of non-core assets identified that can be sold through to the end of 2020 with $3B that could be sold this year.
Think ENB is good value as they have very sellable, high quality, high value assets so funding isn't an issue. 
Strong earnings and cash flow growth and expects ACFFO/DCF to increase at a min of 10% per year in 2018 and 2019 that will support the 10% dividend growth target

Patrick Horan, Agilith Capital - Shorting
Shorting ENB since 2016 citing company's debt load in a rising rate environment and dividend growth outpacing earnings in recent years.
Suggests that the company could even go bankrupt in an extreme situation if they continue increasing dividends without ROE and growth in their assets along with higher rates, and credit spreads that may force the company to refinance at higher rates.
Acknowledges bankruptcy avoidable by selling assets, trimming or cutting dividends. A lot hinging on what they can get on their assets they are selling.
ENB is their firm's largest short position along with shorting FTS, EMA, and CGX; companies all with high debt and not earning their dividend.
Expects as interest rates rise, the short positions will work for him.

Anish Chopra, Portfolio Management Group - Holding (and adding to new accounts)
Holding but adding for new client accounts as their clients tend to be long term investors with some income needs
Thinks the company can boost its earnings and cash flow which should support its goal of increasing their dividend over time
Valuation today at 16x forward earnings a lot more reasonable than 30x in 2015
Risks to watch include their debt load and whether they can sell certain assets as planned at a good price.

John Whelen, CFO ENB
The low share price is frustrating and investor concerns are understood around project execution and funding
They have a plan. $12B of new projects in service in 2017 which is already driving growth in DCF (dist cash flow). $22B in new projects over the next 3 years including Line 3 replacement
Macro trends like rising rates putting pressure on more defensive stocks and sectors
Company has hedges to guard against rising rates on their short and long term debt and feel comfortable in terms of the actual impact of the cost of debt
Thinks the bankruptcy suggestion is a bit odd given that they have various options to pay down their debt. No risk of insolvency but the real question is how quickly the company can bring their credit metrics back in line with longer term targets with the plan they have in place.


----------



## OptsyEagle

https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6581503697776898&qm_symbol=ENB



> Enbridge Inc. does not expect a material consolidated financial impact as a result of FERC Revised Policy Statements
> 
> 
> 
> Canada NewsWire
> 
> CALGARY, March 16, 2018
> 
> 
> CALGARY, March 16, 2018 /CNW/ - Enbridge Inc. (Enbridge or the Company) (TSX:ENB) (NYSE:ENB) today stated that it does not expect a material impact to its previously disclosed financial guidance over the 2018-2020 horizon as a result of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) revised policy statement on interstate pipeline tax allowance recovery in Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) nor from FERC's Notice of Proposed Rule-Making (NOPR).
> 
> Spectra Energy Partners LP (SEP) does not expect any material impact to its financial guidance from the FERC policy actions. Roughly 60% of SEP's gas pipeline revenue comes from negotiated or market-based tariffs and therefore not directly affected by the FERC policy revisions. The remaining 40% of gas pipeline revenue is from cost of service based tariffs which could be subject to tax recovery disallowance. The liquids assets within SEP are predominantly negotiated tariffs and also not materially affected by the policy revisions. SEP anticipates no immediate impact to its current gas pipeline cost of service rates as a result of the revised policy, and therefore, no impact is expected to its previously provided 2018 financial guidance. Any future impacts would only take effect upon the execution and settlement of a rate case. In the event of a rate case, all cost of service framework components would be taken into consideration, which is expected to offset a significant portion of any impacts related to the new FERC policy. Any unmitigated impacts are not anticipated to materially change SEP's distributable cash flow outlook beyond 2018.
> 
> Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (EEP) derives a portion of its revenue from a Facility Surcharge Mechanism that applies cost of service tariffs which would be impacted by this policy change. As a result of lower tax rates under US Tax Reform, EEP previously guided to a decrease in distributable cash flow (DCF) of $55 million for 2018. This new FERC policy would cause a further decrease to DCF of roughly $80 million on an annual basis, or roughly $60 million on a prorated basis in 2018.
> 
> Under the International Joint Toll mechanism, reductions in the EEP tariff will create an offsetting revenue increase on the Canadian Mainline system owned by Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (ENF). Financial guidance at ENF remains unchanged; however, this could provide a further tailwind for financial results. The combined impact at both EEP and ENF are offsetting for Enbridge on a consolidated basis.


----------



## doctrine

In other words, a non-story and buying opportunity.


----------



## john.cray

$40.01. I have the feeling that once $40.00 support level goes away it will break down a lot.

Update: close to 90K shares on the bid in level 2 @ $40.00 providing massive support for now.


----------



## londoncalling

Got an order in at 38.98 to double down on current position. See if it hits.


----------



## cainvest

londoncalling said:


> Got an order in at 38.98 to double down on current position. See if it hits.


You might just get that order filled today!


----------



## john.cray

cainvest said:


> You might just get that order filled today!


I am sure he did.

I am keeping an eye on Level 2 and waiting for the $39.00 to come close. 50K shares proving support for now. Still holding with my move but my existing position is down 20% since entry. Fun fun.


----------



## peterk

+50 shares for me today.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I simply can't believe how low this stock is....are people losing their minds selling??


----------



## AlwaysLearning

This is already my largest single stock holding. I have been adding to my position each time it has dropped and am wondering if I should go further overweight.
Other side of me keeps asking what am I missing...


----------



## OptsyEagle

I keep looking at it but I am having a hard time getting my mind over all the damn debt. $62 Billion dollars of it and when I am done swallowing that I then see $7.7 Billion of preferred shares. Even the common share dividend is starting to look like a very expensive obligation. It takes over $4.5 Billion dollars to cover that each year, assuming all the other stuff gets paid.

So I am not sure this is falling from selling or just a lack of buying. Will it get to a price where I will buy? Very tough to say. Perhaps I am just looking at it from a glass half empty point of view.


----------



## doctrine

ENB is cheap, but I wouldn't call this madness. It can absolutely go cheaper. There are stocks in the energy sector trading at far less value - ENB remains a premium name, relatively speaking. Every possible risk is against them, but it still trades at probably close to 8 times EBITDA, 10 times cash flow. There are mid cap producers and service companies trading at 3-4 times cash flow and EBITDA with low debt. Every possible headwind is against them. And a new 52 week low usually means more ahead, unless this just happens to be the day where everything turns around (very unlikely).


----------



## AltaRed

I think all the hurdles have to be crossed off and construction to start on the US side of Line 3 for this stock to regain momentum. Line 3 replacement is not yet a done deal. Investors everywhere are getting weary with the ****-kicking the pipelines are getting from the ill-informed.


----------



## jargey3000

this should be interesting to watch over next little while ....from the sidelines for once, with a wad of cash in hand...


----------



## My Own Advisor

If I can get more cash together in the coming weeks, I will buy more. IPL way down as well. Utilities in Canada are getting hit. CU totally beaten up. Just very odd sentiment right now. 

I have to wonder if people are selling where are they putting their money then? What is going remarkably higher now? Weed stocks? Hardly a defined industry. I don't get it.


----------



## AltaRed

Money (fund) managers are likely getting stopped out in some of these names and simply going higher in cash given recent volatility. Seems to often be a common theme with such folk.


----------



## Tawcan

My Own Advisor said:


> If I can get more cash together in the coming weeks, I will buy more. IPL way down as well. Utilities in Canada are getting hit. CU totally beaten up. Just very odd sentiment right now.
> 
> I have to wonder if people are selling where are they putting their money then? What is going remarkably higher now? Weed stocks? Hardly a defined industry. I don't get it.


Maybe they're pulling their money in bonds? 

Sorry that just makes no sense to me.


----------



## londoncalling

cainvest said:


> You might just get that order filled today!


Close. Today's low was 39.02. My greed is suggesting I adjust even lower. Guess we'll see if I can fight that feeling and stick with my current order.


----------



## john.cray

londoncalling said:


> Close. Today's low was 39.02. My greed is suggesting I adjust even lower. Guess we'll see if I can fight that feeling and stick with my current order.


Just curious if you left the order at $38.98 overnight or you canceled and are going to see how it trends tomorrow ?


----------



## james4beach

I noticed today that Suncor has overtaken Enbridge as the highest weight energy stock in XIU.

Also, what are your thoughts on this?



> “It doesn’t make sense to raise the dividend and then go out and raise equity, it just doesn’t. That just breaks every corporate finance 101 textbook.” - https://www.bnn.ca/this-makes-no-sense-money-manager-blasts-enbridge-over-stock-sale-1.930420


----------



## My Own Advisor

AltaRed said:


> Money (fund) managers are likely getting stopped out in some of these names and simply going higher in cash given recent volatility. Seems to often be a common theme with such folk.


So fund managers, maybe more institutional money, are bailing? Moving to cash? Predicting a collapse are they; possibly; maybe?


----------



## RBull

Some good points made on here by AltaRed, OptsyEagle and doctrine. Just read this:

http://business.financialpost.com/c...arys-credit-rating-could-significantly-weaken


----------



## john.cray

james4beach said:


> I noticed today that Suncor has overtaken Enbridge as the highest weight energy stock in XIU.


If I remember correctly, last time we chatted about your 5-pack you said that you switch the sector's representative stock with the highest market cap stock? Previously you had switched SU for ENB, would you do that switch now that they changed places?


----------



## londoncalling

john.cray said:


> Just curious if you left the order at $38.98 overnight or you canceled and are going to see how it trends tomorrow ?


Order filled today at 38.83. up 3.5 % end of day. Other than bragging rights don't mean anything.

Cheers


----------



## james4beach

john.cray said:


> If I remember correctly, last time we chatted about your 5-pack you said that you switch the sector's representative stock with the highest market cap stock? Previously you had switched SU for ENB, would you do that switch now that they changed places?


Yeah, I do select the 5 pack based off the XIU weightings. But in my backtest I had made these changes at the end of each year, so I wouldn't change anything yet.


----------



## humble_pie

my 10 short enbridge $42 puts are faring well, even though they are ITM & in fact 2 days ago they were looking to drop DITM.

short puts are a mildly bullish strategy. Here's what's preventing them from being exercised against me, even as the stock teeters around the 40 level.

not long before close yesterday, ENB itself was printing 39.90. This means that the intrinsic value of a 42 ITM put was $2.10 at that same moment (ok, 2.10 plus a tiny adjustment for interest cost on MI until expiration date, but at today's low rates i'm not bothering to include it.)

meanwhile, the actual market for the jan 42 put was 5.15 bid, 5.40 ask. This means that a counterparty who is long my 42 puts is not going to assign, it will be hugely more profitable for him to sell that put into the market if he wants to pop out his cash. In other words, my position is protected - for the time being - by this large $3.05 safety buffer.

i have another option paired position that is also mildly bullish. If i were to wind everything up - close all the short options, sell the long options - i'd break even. This, imho, is a tad more desirable than losing $$ by holding a simple long position in the underlying stock.

on the other hand, losing portfolio $$ is only a notional setback if one continues to hold the stock. Provided, of course, that a falling stock is able to come back. Plus there's the healthy ENB dividend. A party holding synthetic ENB via derivatives does not receive any dividend. Assuming that this company can keep up its dividend. _Ceteris pluribus_.

.


----------



## My Own Advisor

james4beach said:


> Yeah, I do select the 5 pack based off the XIU weightings. But in my backtest I had made these changes at the end of each year, so I wouldn't change anything yet.


I wouldn't since it will be interesting in a few years to see how things play out!


----------



## humble_pie

an option position will pop much sooner than a few years, so it will always be more interesting ...


.


----------



## ExtremeAthlete

Umm..let me buy more so I can get a higher dividend. I'll just ignore the stock price decline. Duh duh dividend chaser.


----------



## james4beach

Many dividend investors say that the price fluctuations don't affect them, because they focus exclusively on the dividend income stream. Unfortunately, there is a correlation between price performance and dividends. It's not an absolutely 1:1 coupling, but still there is obviously some correlation. Strong share price performance tends to go along with rising dividends. And the opposite: a plummeting stock price tends to go along with dividend cuts (e.g. Bombardier, Citigroup, GE).

This is because both dividends and share price are from equity, and they fundamentally cannot be separated.

Plummeting stock price does not always go along with dividend cuts or stagnation. Those holding ENB for the dividend are hoping that the dividend growth continues, even if the share price keeps falling.


----------



## john.cray

It looks like ENB has bounced off the $38 lows found some support. Maybe I missed the opportunity to catch it at the absolute lows, or maybe it's a good time to load up on the way back just as it bounced.


----------



## My Own Advisor

james4beach said:


> Many dividend investors say that the price fluctuations don't affect them, because they focus exclusively on the dividend income stream. Unfortunately, there is a correlation between price performance and dividends. It's not an absolutely 1:1 coupling, but still there is obviously some correlation. Strong share price performance tends to go along with rising dividends. And the opposite: a plummeting stock price tends to go along with dividend cuts (e.g. Bombardier, Citigroup, GE).
> 
> This is because both dividends and share price are from equity, and they fundamentally cannot be separated.
> 
> Plummeting stock price does not always go along with dividend cuts or stagnation. Those holding ENB for the dividend are hoping that the dividend growth continues, even if the share price keeps falling.


I would hope all indexers hope for growth as well James, as you well know, dividend growth is just part of total return. There are a kazillion institutional funds that hold ENB. We don't want companies like this to suffer long term; plummeting prices long term, do the collective we?


----------



## Pluto

It looked to me that ENB had a bloated share price due to low interest rates - EG 2015. I couldn't understand its popularity due to the massive p/e. I guess I was looking at the value issue, instead of just the desire for income. Finally bought some in Feb 2016, so share price wise, I'm about even. Very happy I waited for better value instead of buying in 2015. 

I think there is a big interest rate component to ENB stock price moves.


----------



## AltaRed

I've said it before. A big issue with ENB is its Debt/EBITDA ratio, somewhere in the order of 6.5-7 or so (GuruFocus reports it as 8.94 but I have not tried to reconcile the variance). Compare that to something like a PPL with a factor or about 3.19 year end 2017 as reported by https://www.gurufocus.com/term/debt2ebitda/NYSE:PBA/Debt-to-EBITDA/Pembina-Pipeline-Corp 

IMO, anything above 3.5 should be a concern. ENB basically **** itself and it will be a climb to get out of the penalty box.

P.S. I cannot attest to GuruFocus accuracy, but I do use it as a comparative measure data point within the same sector. It lists TRP <2 and for another capital intensive sector comparison, CNR at <2.


----------



## canew90

james4beach said:


> Many dividend investors say that the price fluctuations don't affect them, because they focus exclusively on the dividend income stream. Unfortunately, there is a correlation between price performance and dividends. It's not an absolutely 1:1 coupling, but still there is obviously some correlation. Strong share price performance tends to go along with rising dividends. And the opposite: a plummeting stock price tends to go along with dividend cuts (e.g. Bombardier, Citigroup, GE).
> 
> This is because both dividends and share price are from equity, and they fundamentally cannot be separated.
> 
> Plummeting stock price does not always go along with dividend cuts or stagnation. Those holding ENB for the dividend are hoping that the dividend growth continues, even if the share price keeps falling.


In case you are unaware:
The original company that issues the stock does not participate in any profits or losses resulting from these transactions (buying and selling of shares), unless it is also actively buying or selling its stock on the open market. A company's stock price reflects "investor perception" of its ability to earn and grow its profits in the future.


----------



## james4beach

What I meant is that, if one observes dividends and share prices of any given company, there is a correlation (perhaps weak) between share price performance and dividend strength. I realize that stock prices move based on perception and possibly totally irrational things, but some times they also move on fundamentals.

There are definitely times the two aren't tightly coupled, e.g. when XIU crashed in the last crisis, but dividends kept coming in normally from the TSX 60 companies.

There are other times the two are very tightly coupled, like when all US bank share prices crashed (and the dividends got cut), when BBD.B cut its dividend while the share price collapsed in the early 2000s, and most recently when GE shares declined, GE cut the dividend, and the price decline accelerated.

I'm just saying that dividends and share price are related, because they are both based on company health and fundamentals.


----------



## canew90

james4beach said:


> What I meant is that, if one observes dividends and share prices of any given company, there is a correlation (perhaps weak) between share price performance and dividend strength. I realize that stock prices move based on perception and possibly totally irrational things, but some times they also move on fundamentals.
> 
> There are definitely times the two aren't tightly coupled, e.g. when XIU crashed in the last crisis, but dividends kept coming in normally from the TSX 60 companies.
> 
> There are other times the two are very tightly coupled, like when all US bank share prices crashed (and the dividends got cut), when BBD.B cut its dividend while the share price collapsed in the early 2000s, and most recently when GE shares declined, GE cut the dividend, and the price decline accelerated.
> 
> I'm just saying that dividends and share price are related, because they are both based on company health and fundamentals.


I agree but not with dividend paying stocks in total. For those which raise their dividend regularly, the price will eventually follow the dividend growth. In fact over the long term price growth and dividend growth are fairly close.


----------



## doctrine

AltaRed said:


> I've said it before. A big issue with ENB is its Debt/EBITDA ratio, somewhere in the order of 6.5-7 or so (GuruFocus reports it as 8.94 but I have not tried to reconcile the variance). Compare that to something like a PPL with a factor or about 3.19 year end 2017 as reported by https://www.gurufocus.com/term/debt2ebitda/NYSE:PBA/Debt-to-EBITDA/Pembina-Pipeline-Corp
> 
> IMO, anything above 3.5 should be a concern. ENB basically **** itself and it will be a climb to get out of the penalty box.
> 
> P.S. I cannot attest to GuruFocus accuracy, but I do use it as a comparative measure data point within the same sector. It lists TRP <2 and for another capital intensive sector comparison, CNR at <2.


It's about 6:1, and will be 5:1 by the end of 2018. It's not great, but ENB also has very high quality assets and plenty of growth, even without some of the bigger projects, primarily because of Spectra which puts them in the center of some of the biggest growth areas of the US.

One thing I would like to see is consolidation of their corporate structure. I think they may go that route eventually. If they aren't working as a funding source, then it doesn't make sense to have them.

I think a fair price for the stock is $50, and maybe as much as $55. A good buy in the $38-42 range.


----------



## james4beach

canew90 said:


> For those which raise their dividend regularly, the price will eventually follow the dividend growth. In fact over the long term price growth and dividend growth are fairly close.


GE had been paying dividends for over 100 years, and had increased its dividend for over 25 years. So it was very much a solid dividend growth stock... right up to the moment it cut its dividend and stopped being a great dividend stock.


----------



## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> GE had been paying dividends for over 100 years, and had increased its dividend for over 25 years. So it was very much a solid dividend growth stock... right up to the moment it cut its dividend and stopped being a great dividend stock.


GE is an interesting case though, and not sure what lessons it holds for companies in general. It started as an electric company, but then grew into other areas through acquisitions instead of stabilizing around its original strength. They had a bit of a mishap with their financial division, so can we say it's growth is more due to acquisition of companies in different sectors instead of consolidating in one sector?

Here's an interesting podcast interview with former CEO Jack Welch: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/jack-welch/

I found it pretty interesting... i.e. he blew up a factory.


----------



## ExtremeAthlete

AltaRed,

You lost them at "Debt/EBITDA ratio." You're talking to dividend chasers here. You need to insert the word dividends here and there. Dividends? Where? Here! Take my money and give me 4% back. Thanks, keep the change!


----------



## peterk

^Who are you?

Welcome to the forum Mr. nobody Athlete troll.


----------



## dubmac

peterk said:


> ^Who are you?
> 
> Welcome to the forum Mr. nobody Athlete troll.


+1.

It kinda killed the conversation...


----------



## ExtremeAthlete

I tried the non-troll way. Nobody listened to me. =(

It only takes a few minutes to do some research. Most pple spend more time planning their weekend then stock analysis.

Go to Morningstar. ca

In the Fund/Stock search window type Enb. Select Enbridge, Select Key Stats tab.

Does that look like a healthy company to you? See my previous posts. There's not many. Look at the trends.

Now compare the Key Stats against Suncor (SU) or MTY Food Group (MTY) or Apple (AAPL)

Trying to help. Trying to help YOU!


----------



## gardner

AltaRed said:


> A big issue with ENB is its Debt/EBITDA ratio


I find that the financials of Enbridge are clouded by the ENB/ENF split. Any feel for how the financials of the operation as a whole would look?


----------



## doctrine

ExtremeAthlete said:


> I tried the non-troll way. Nobody listened to me. =(
> 
> It only takes a few minutes to do some research. Most pple spend more time planning their weekend then stock analysis.
> 
> Go to Morningstar. ca
> 
> In the Fund/Stock search window type Enb. Select Enbridge, Select Key Stats tab.
> 
> Does that look like a healthy company to you? See my previous posts. There's not many. Look at the trends.
> 
> Now compare the Key Stats against Suncor (SU) or MTY Food Group (MTY) or Apple (AAPL)
> 
> Trying to help. Trying to help YOU!


You must be new here. If you stay a while, you may realize that many here actually do spend more time on financial analysis than planning their weekends. For some of us, that is our weekend plan.

Comparing ENB to MTY and AAPL is kind of silly. MTY is restaurants. AAPL is consumer products. ENB signs multi decade contracts with firm pricing to which they align their capital structure. This is basic stuff. Utilities will have more debt. ENB can afford it. And the well-capitalized SU is virtually certain to be paying ENB for decades to come.


----------



## dubmac

Are any of the stocks that you recommended deemed undervalued? Or are you suggesting that we seek out and purchase those that (may be) over-valued?...(BTW - when you check Morningstar AAPL is over-valued, whereas, SU is fairly valued.

I'll check Morningstar, & see what they say regarding ENB. - Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 20 Mar 2018 
This is what I read when I did...

Morningstar Pillars 

Valuation: Undervalued
Uncertainty: Medium High
Financial: Moderate

Investment Thesis - Joe Gemino, CPA, Eq. Analyst, 20 March 2018. 
*We Expect Minimal FERC Impact on Enbridge; Stock Is Deeply Undervalued*

here are some quotes on the stock that you are pooh-poohing from the source (Morningstar) that you recommended....

*We believe the stock is deeply undervalued based on the company's vast growth portfolio*, highlighted by the lucrative natural gas projects associated with the Spectra acquisition and the Line 3 Replacement. *The recent sell-off due to proposed U.S. regulation serves as a tremendous buying opportunity for the long term. *

Since the news broke of the FERC’s proposal, Enbridge’s already undervalued stock has been down 8%. *The stock is now trading at its five-year low. Despite the downward momentum, we see this as an attractive entry point for long-term investors. We think the market is overacting to the FERC proposal and has lost sight of Enbridge’s bigger picture: the growth portfolio, which is highlighted by the Line 3 replacement project. Investors appear skeptical that the project will obtain its final approval amid continued protests and opposition. We believe that the project will obtain the remaining approval from the state of Minnesota later this year, which we think will serve as a catalyst for the stock.* The depressed stock price also offers investors an attractive yield of 6.8% on the current investment level. Furthermore, we are maintaining our wide moat rating.


----------



## AltaRed

The key part if that is


> We think the market is overacting to the FERC proposal and has lost sight of Enbridge’s bigger picture: the growth portfolio, which is highlighted by the Line 3 replacement project. Investors appear skeptical that the project will obtain its final approval amid continued protests and opposition. We believe that the project will obtain the remaining approval from the state of Minnesota later this year, which we think will serve as a catalyst for the stock.


It is hard to blame investors who have seen pipeline proposal after pipeline proposal stopped dead in their tracks. Northern Gateway, then the first attempt at Keystone XL under the tainted Obama administration, then Energy East, perhaps now the KM expansion. Investors should be forgiven for thinking Line 3 may not be a slam dunk AND for how ENB is actually going to finance it. The latter point may be most critical.

P.S. I don't have a response to Gardner regarding ENB/ENF complexity other than ENB will do what it takes to advantage 100% owned ENB over partially owned ENF.


----------



## dubmac

AltaRed said:


> Investors should be forgiven for thinking Line 3 may not be a slam dunk AND for how ENB is actually going to finance it. The latter point may be most critical.


I agree with you Alta - this stock has been beaten down for some very good reasons. I don't expect much over the near term. It will be interesting however to see how their proposed sale of assets and the contribution from Spectra Energy will help change their balance sheet. See article here. Supposedly 8 billion in assets to be moved. The elephant in the room is the excessive dividend.


----------



## john.cray

It seems like today might be a big day for Enbridge:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/enbridge-line-3-pipeline-minnesota-approval-process-1.4625500


----------



## john.cray

Here's the decision:



> An administrative law judge says Minnesota regulators should approve Enbridge Energy’s proposal for replacing its aging Line 3 crude oil pipeline only if it follows the existing route rather than the company’s preferred route.
> 
> Administrative Law Judge Ann O’Reilly recommended Monday that the Public Utilities Commission reject a route that avoids sensitive areas in the Mississippi River headwaters region where American Indians harvest wild rice and hold treaty rights. The proposal has drawn opposition because the line would carry Canadian tar sands crude.


What are your thoughts and comments?


----------



## AltaRed

One more positive step. Another to go in June when the PUC rules. What I don't know is if Enbridge did all the necessary work on the old (existing) route should the PUC go in that direction. TRP got caught with a re-routing in Nebraska they had not fully evaluated (ROW and envonmental).


----------



## doctrine

Line 3 replacement approved, but only on the existing route. I'm sure ENB will report on the impacts. There might be more downtime on the line if they can't build simultaneously. And maybe some higher operating costs. I feel like any higher operating costs can easily be passed onto shippers, given the lack of alternates, so this seems like a big win.


----------



## cainvest

Down a fair bit today, guess the news isn't being received as positive.


----------



## john.cray

cainvest said:


> Down a fair bit today, guess the news isn't being received as positive.


Totally. 4.50% down


----------



## blin10

interesting how low this will go, adding few shares here


----------



## Synergy

cainvest said:


> Down a fair bit today, guess the news isn't being received as positive.


Seems like the sector and market is also taking a hit in general as a result of rising bond yields. Likely a double whammy today for ENB.


----------



## Dilbert

Synergy said:


> Seems like the sector and market is also taking a hit in general as a result of rising bond yields. Likely a double whammy today for ENB.


And TRP:beaten:


----------



## john.cray

Well, a new deep low. Stock is down 5.37% for the day.


----------



## humble_pie

doctrine said:


> Line 3 replacement approved, but only on the existing route.




is it so terrible if they will likely be permitted to replace/rebuild only on the existing route? the news re indigenous opposition to a new alternate route has been openly simmering for years, so the decision was no surprise

perhaps with kinder morgan as a backdrop these days, any setback at all for a pipeline is initially perceived by the market as a mortal blow

afaik it's the first alberta bitumen pipeline in north america to arrive to the threshhold of full & final permitting. Baby steps. More to follow eventually.


----------



## doctrine

It's not bad at all, but I think ENB is looking to get away from the native opposition along the existing line, where easements end in 2029. That being said, Minnesota is basically wholly dependent on gas and oil products from this pipeline; the impact on the surrounding states to what the environmentalists want is economic collapse and ruin. Clearly that won't happen, but people are quick to sell. 

This decision is quite incredible; the judge has really stuck it to the native tribes; perhaps rather than protest, the natives should have agreed to a different route out of their territory. Ironically, because of their "no development" attitude, they might be stuck with it for another five decades. I still think its good news for ENB overall, but it remains to be seen what ENB reports on cost impacts. I still think any increased costs can be passed onto shippers; including costs for stopping the pipeline for a year and a half during construction.

It is also worth noting this reinforces the notion, quite strongly, that pipelines in the ground are extremely valuable. Production is growing in Canada and the US, and consumption growing worldwide. These pipelines will be money printing machines.


----------



## jargey3000

closed at $37.68 today....where to from here?


----------



## AltaRed

jargey3000 said:


> closed at $37.68 today....where to from here?


No one knows but likely oversold. I see it as just one of 25 or so stocks in my portfolio and nothing to be concerned about over the medium term. At a higher level, if Line 3 stalls and TRP cannot get Keystone XL done, these big pipes will just abandon any new project work in Canada and focus on more welcoming territory in the southern USA. Growth prospects will be severely limited and these will become mature stocks just like Bell Canada.


----------



## james4beach

Ouch, what a day. This is a really bad chart. New lows are generally not a good thing, but here we are. Even more painful considering that the energy sector has been strong lately.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Certainly taking a beating. I wonder if in 5-10 years, buyers will be hugely rewarded. As in, this too shall pass?


----------



## AltaRed

My Own Advisor said:


> Certainly taking a beating. I wonder if in 5-10 years, buyers will be hugely rewarded. As in, this too shall pass?


I think shareholders will be 'satisfied' long term, but Line 3 replacement aside whether it is built or not (and I still think it will be), I think the days of unbridled growth in the pipeline industry are behind us. Hydrocarbon consumption is decreasing on this continent and other than new pipelines needed to move 'new sources' of production such as Eagle Ford in Texas to existing (established) trunkline pipeline systems, or the replacement of a trunkline, there is not much to move the needle on the big pipes. Hence my analogy to Bell.


----------



## john.cray

An interesting short comment on BNN https://www.bnn.ca/enbridge-to-seek-preferred-line-3-route-approval-1.1066383


----------



## jargey3000

My Own Advisor said:


> Certainly taking a beating. I wonder if in 5-10 years, buyers will be hugely rewarded. As in, this too shall pass?


was gonna post a similar Comment MOA....beat me to it


----------



## My Own Advisor

Fair AR. I just think hydrocarbons are here for another 30 or so years; maybe more. It will take some time to get away from this energy source.


----------



## AltaRed

My Own Advisor said:


> Fair AR. I just think hydrocarbons are here for another 30 or so years; maybe more. It will take some time to get away from this energy source.


They are here for longer than that. Oil demand continues to increase by 1-1.5 million barrels per day each year in recent years. It could cross 100 million barrels per day sometime this year, or early next... barring a global slowdown/recession. I don't know when peak oil demand will happen or at what level of consumption, but I think I have said a few times in the last few years that it might be in the order of 105 million barrels per day before it rolls over. The decline will be rather slow, the rate depending on breakthrough technologies not yet in play for the mass market.


----------



## jargey3000

..ENB appears to be bouncing back ...Is the worst over ya think?....


----------



## milhouse

jargey3000 said:


> ..ENB appears to be bouncing back ...Is the worst over ya think?....


Not until they get Line 3 approved. That's the biggest near term concern IMO. The debt is obviously a concern too but I think their recent announcements regarding asset sales kind of provides some supporting evidence they're on plan with addressing their debt.


----------



## agent99

jargey3000 said:


> ..ENB appears to be bouncing back ...Is the worst over ya think?....


I only read headlines, but it sounded like they are selling off assets to pay back their debt. Might be a good thing?


----------



## AltaRed

agent99 said:


> I only read headlines, but it sounded like they are selling off assets to pay back their debt. Might be a good thing?


Indeed. ENB is finally taking the action they already said they would do in 2018, i.e. sell $3B in assets to pay down debt and the market is rewarding them for it. But the euphoria will be capped until/if they continue the process over the next few years. Once in the penalty box, it is hard to get out.


----------



## doctrine

Cash flow was up 46% and the dividend payout ratio was 63% at the increased dividend rate. They have sold $3.2B in assets and they have another package on the market that could be worth $4.5 billion. 

Line 3 is a big project though - $8 billion. The uncertainty on the project will have to be lifted before the stock really goes significantly higher.

That being said, a positive day on a very high profile and well watched earnings report is a good thing. And now a good 12-13% above the 52 week low.


----------



## yyz

AltaRed said:


> They are here for longer than that. Oil demand continues to increase by 1-1.5 million barrels per day each year in recent years.


Typo?


----------



## AltaRed

yyz said:


> Typo?


No typo. Global oil demand has been rising by 1+ million barrels per day, each and every year in recent years. I can't find the chart I looked at before but this link https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...may-overtake-demand-in-2018-iea-idUSKBN1FX0VQ provides some insight.

Oil demand in 2017 grew by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2017. Estimate for 2018 is now 1.4 million barrels per day. Global oil demand is expected to exceed 100 million barrels per day by the end of this year.

BP, and other majors, often do major supply demand studies to provide a basis for long term investments. BP believes global oil demand will reach 110 million barrels per day by 2035.


> According to BP forecasts, oil demand growth over the period is set to slow from around 1 million barrels per day to 400,000 bpd by 2035, when consumption will reach around 110 million bpd. Demand is not expected to peak before the 2040s, Dale said.


I think the world will do a little better than that with a peak sometime in the next 10-15 years, but obviously no one knows. Climate change people don't understand that global oil demand will actually continue to increase for some time to come. It is just the way it is, EVs and renewable power be damned. There is too much of this globe that is NOT in the developed world and too many other places that don't really care.


----------



## nobleea

The units are confusing. barrels per day per year.

But yes, demand continues to increase and will for likely the next generation or close to it. it won't be a steady drop off after that either.


----------



## jargey3000

Brian Madden, stockchase today:"This is an epic buying opportunity"


----------



## My Own Advisor

This is great news...
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/bus...lidate-assets-in-894-billion-restructuring-2/

"If the series of transactions unfold as anticipated, investors in all the companies and limited partnerships would hold shares in Enbridge, one of North America’s largest energy infrastructure companies."

"Under the series of deals announced Thursday, Enbridge is proposing separate all-share offers with the boards of Spectra Energy Partners, L.P., Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P., Enbridge Energy Management, L.L.C. and Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc., offering them company shares worth a total of roughly $11.4 billion based on current stock prices."


----------



## OptsyEagle

Anyone know if there is a "pro-forma" report showing what Enbridge will look like after this deal is done. Kind of hard to determine the merits of it without one.


----------



## jargey3000

jargey3000 said:


> Brian Madden, stockchase today:"This is an epic buying opportunity"


bump


----------



## jargey3000

My Own Advisor said:


> This is great news...
> https://www.theglobeandmail.com/bus...lidate-assets-in-894-billion-restructuring-2/
> 
> "If the series of transactions unfold as anticipated, investors in all the companies and limited partnerships would hold shares in Enbridge, one of North America’s largest energy infrastructure companies."
> "Under the series of deals announced Thursday, Enbridge is proposing separate all-share offers with the boards of Spectra Energy Partners, L.P., Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P., Enbridge Energy Management, L.L.C. and Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc., offering them company shares worth a total of roughly $11.4 billion based on current stock prices."


why, MOA?


----------



## RBull

OptsyEagle said:


> Anyone know if there is a "pro-forma" report showing what Enbridge will look like after this deal is done. Kind of hard to determine the merits of it without one.


I agree.


----------



## My Own Advisor

jargey3000 said:


> why, MOA?


Re-structuring signals change. Change from ENB is good. As a shareholder I want management to think about consolidation, decentralization, other for the benefit of its shareholders. I don't want management to be passive. Being passive in a for-profit world will get you eaten alive.


----------



## robfordlives

So can someone in English explain what is happening? Is this some kind of financial engineering?


----------



## Numbersman61

robfordlives said:


> So can someone in English explain what is happening? Is this some kind of financial engineering?


Enbridge has a number of affiliated entities in which it owns an interest and manages. It is a complex corporate structure which is very difficult to understand and analyze. At one point there were tax and financing advantages to have these entities. Those advantages no longer work.
This restructuring will result in all the affiliated entities being 100% owned by Enbridge.


----------



## jargey3000

Numbersman61 said:


> Enbridge has a number of affiliated entities in which it owns an interest and manages. It is a complex corporate structure which is very difficult to understand and analyze. At one point there were tax and financing advantages to have these entities. Those advantages no longer work.
> This restructuring will result in all the affiliated entities being 100% owned by Enbridge.


is that going to be a good...or bad...thing?


----------



## carson

Lots of news about Enb today..



> Minnesota House, Senate approve bills allowing Enbridge pipeline without regulatory OK
> Dayton vows to veto legislation green-lighting the controversial Line 3 pipeline project Up North.


http://www.startribune.com/house-se...dge-pipeline-without-regulatory-ok/482856311/


----------



## AltaRed

jargey3000 said:


> is that going to be a good...or bad...thing?


Getting rid of financially engineered products such as MLPs in the USA is always a good thing. None have survived long term. Remember income trusts in Canada? Similar thing. As far as ENF is concerned, ENF was nothing more than a pawn used by ENB to suck cheap equity out of eager shareholders while maintaining dominant control. It has served its purpose with nothing meaningful left to give.


----------



## Argonaut

I disagree about ENF and am not happy about this move. ENF was the best way to hold mature pipeline assets without the burden of growth expectations that never happen in today's climate.

ENF stock is up on the news, but I'll probably sell and look for another pipeline. Annoying that now two things are out of date in my book! (REF.UN and ENF) The market changes fast.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Argonaut said:


> I disagree about ENF and am not happy about this move. ENF was the best way to hold mature pipeline assets without the burden of growth expectations that never happen in today's climate.
> 
> ENF stock is up on the news, but I'll probably sell and look for another pipeline. Annoying that now two things are out of date in my book! (REF.UN and ENF) The market changes fast.


You can always put out a second edition and pump more sales


----------



## james4beach

Now that the new Ontario government (PCs under Ford) have decided to destroy the Cap & Trade system -- and destroyed the market for trading those credits -- I'm curious how large a loss that will cause for Enbridge and Suncor, which are two major holders of energy credits.

The ENB Q1 financials include this under section 10. Risks


> Emission allowance price risk is the risk of gain or loss due to changes in the market price of emission
> allowances that our gas distribution business is required to purchase for itself and most of its customers
> to meet greenhouse gas compliance obligations under the Ontario Cap and Trade framework.


Emission Allowances appear under Intangible Assets on their balance sheet. But I can't tell from the breakdown in the financials how large this number is. Does anyone know? How many million $ or billion $ are we talking? Similar question applies to Suncor.

http://business.financialpost.com/c...g-ford-upends-ontarios-carbon-trading-program


----------



## carson

Line 3 likely to be approved this afternoon. ENB currently up 3.5% on the news.

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/b...will-likely-be-approved-route-still-uncertain


----------



## doctrine

This is unsurprising. Did anyone really think they wouldn't replace the pipeline that supplies all of the refineries in the state? The counter argument that the entire state should absolve itself of fossil fuels in the next 5 years is pretty ridiculous. And since the aboriginals do not want it running through their land, the proposed route simply bypasses all of them. Of course, that is also opposed, but the only alternative is to truck everything in or have the entire state move into caves. Sheesh. Good for ENB, though.


----------



## james4beach

I longer hold ENB. I switched into SU, for my 5-pack. However this is part of a "passive" strategy so is not a judgement call on what ENB is currently doing, and I think the ENB purchase was a technical mistake due to a poorly defined rebalancing methodology on my part.

In other words I'm not trying to knock ENB, but it was a mistake when I purchased it... as described in linked thread.


----------



## CPA Candidate

More and more, common sense is prevailing in these pipeline spats. I'm glad that I stuck out it with my ENB position. Right now I think the shorts are scrambling to get out of their positions.


----------



## cainvest

Might also be a good time for those in ENF to sell before it gets absorbed into ENB.


----------



## carson

cainvest said:


> Might also be a good time for those in ENF to sell before it gets absorbed into ENB.


I have both ENB and ENF. Can you please elaborate on why you think it's a good time to sell ENF? In my view ENF is simply worth .7092 ENB shares and should trade close to that value until it's absorbed. Also ENF holders continue to receive a proportionally large dividend payment in the interim.


----------



## cainvest

carson said:


> I have both ENB and ENF. Can you please elaborate on why you think it's a good time to sell ENF? In my view ENF is simply worth .7092 ENB shares and should trade close to that value until it's absorbed. Also ENF holders continue to receive a proportionally large dividend payment in the interim.


Guess it depends on what you want in your portfolio after the deal is done. I liked ENF for reasons Argonaut stated above. If you'll be happy with all ENB later stick with it but they didn't give much of a trade premium on the conversion. I still hold both myself though I lowered my ENF holdings today and locked in some profit.


----------



## Dilbert

I’m just glad I held on, I have both, but mainly ENF.:tongue:


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Now that the new Ontario government (PCs under Ford) have decided to destroy the Cap & Trade system -- and destroyed the market for trading those credits -- I'm curious how large a loss that will cause for Enbridge and Suncor, which are two major holders of energy credits.
> 
> The ENB Q1 financials include this under section 10. Risks
> 
> 
> Emission Allowances appear under Intangible Assets on their balance sheet. But I can't tell from the breakdown in the financials how large this number is. Does anyone know? How many million $ or billion $ are we talking? Similar question applies to Suncor.
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/c...g-ford-upends-ontarios-carbon-trading-program


It really matters how it's unwound, which depends on how they shut down the program.

It's just politics, like I've said before political risk is my biggest risk.


----------



## cainvest

Dilbert said:


> I’m just glad I held on, I have both, but mainly ENF.:tongue:


It'll be interesting to see if goes out of favor again after the news dies down. Definitely not selling out on ENB/ENF but may lock in some more profits if it spikes up more.


----------



## carson

cainvest said:


> It'll be interesting to see if goes out of favor again after the news dies down. Definitely not selling out on ENB/ENF but may lock in some more profits if it spikes up more.


I expect it will see more volatility until Line 3 is in the ground and oil is flowing. With the regulatory approvals in place it will be built but still lots of obstacles to overcome that could add some cost to the project. 

I sold a little bit of ENB at 47.35 yesterday to bring my allocation back into order. I was already overweight in ENB/ENF and an 11.5% gain in a week put me way overweight.


----------



## 4570

I hold ENF in a taxable account.
Am up about 18%

Any tax advantage in selling now vs waiting for the conversion?


----------



## james4beach

I think at least part of this ENB price movement is a short squeeze in progress. Reason:
https://www.tsx.com/resource/en/1774
https://www.tsx.com/resource/en/1785

ENB is one of the most heavily shorted stocks on the TSX. Short sellers were still piling into it more up to the end of May (see data in first link). When the price started increasing, there was some short covering (second link) but it remained one of the most heavily shorted stocks as of June 15.

That means that traders were very short ENB just prior to the big upside surprise. That's a classic recipe for a short squeeze.


----------



## jargey3000

james4beach said:


> I think at least part of this ENB price movement is a short squeeze in progress. Reason:
> https://www.tsx.com/resource/en/1774
> https://www.tsx.com/resource/en/1785
> 
> ENB is one of the most heavily shorted stocks on the TSX. Short sellers were still piling into it more up to the end of May (see data in first link). When the price started increasing, there was some short covering (second link) but it remained one of the most heavily shorted stocks as of June 15.
> 
> That means that traders were very short ENB just prior to the big upside surprise. That's a classic recipe for a short squeeze.


james - could you (or someone) please explain briefly, in plain english, what the numbers on those charts mean, and how to use / interpret that information? tks


----------



## james4beach

jargey3000 said:


> james - could you (or someone) please explain briefly, in plain english, what the numbers on those charts mean, and how to use / interpret that information? tks


I wouldn't use it for anything, since it's not definitive. I am just saying it's possible the recent price boost might have been exaggerated by short sellers covering their positions (giving up on being "short" or contrary to the stock). Sometimes that process will propel a stock price higher for a few days, and then the price will resume dropping.


----------



## jargey3000

no....not to use it for anything...just to have a better understanding what those number represent...tks


----------



## james4beach

jargey3000 said:


> no....not to use it for anything...just to have a better understanding what those number represent...tks


OK. The background is that traders can take "short" positions on stocks where they bet against a stock, so they will profit when the price drops. It is a totally legitimate form of trading and is necessary in a healthy marketplace. Regulations require that current short positions are disclosed. This list shows the 20 stocks on the TSX with the largest number of shares held short. For example the latest report shows that TD has the largest number of shares currently short, 44 million shares.

However interpreting these numbers takes more work, because the # of shares that exist in a stock varies. So "44 million shares short" may or may not be a noteworthy thing. Generally the stocks on this list will also be stocks that have a huge number of shares in existence. Anyway it's just information reporting. Interpreting it is more of an art, and you have to use other information to make any sense of it.


----------



## Numbersman61

Enbridge announced sale of midstream gas assets for 4.31 billion cash. With the US holiday, volume is light. I expect a big increase in share price tomorrow since balance sheet now looks pretty good.


----------



## ontario99

Numbersman61 said:


> Enbridge announced sale of midstream gas assets for 4.31 billion cash. With the US holiday, volume is light. I expect a big increase in share price tomorrow since balance sheet now looks pretty good.


I saw the news too. I hope you're right. my ENB stocks have taken some beating, so I won't mind some up trend.


----------



## like_to_retire

Enbridge Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire All Public Equity of Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc.
_
"CALGARY, Sept. 18, 2018 /CNW/ - Enbridge Inc. (TSX: ENB) (NYSE: ENB) (Enbridge) and Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX: ENF) (ENF) today announced that they have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement (the Agreement) under which Enbridge will acquire all of the issued and outstanding public common shares of ENF (the Arrangement), subject to the approval of ENF shareholders"._

ltr


----------



## AltaRed

That is the kicker though.... Will ENF shareholders agree at the current 'lukewarm' premium? I am a ENB shareholder, not ENF shareholder, so I hope so.... but if I was an ENF shareholder, I'd hold out for more premium.


----------



## doctrine

I think, given where the stock price has been over the last year, this is as good as it gets, and it probably goes through. It is a significantly sweetened deal to the original offer. There won't be anyone else bidding for the company.


----------



## nortel'd

According to.....
www.enbridgeincomefund.com/Find-Sha...spx?_id=C3C9C846A14B4CF19221AA0E5E81B51A&_z=z 

5. What consideration will I receive for my ENF shares?

_No certificates representing fractional Enbridge Shares will be issued under the Arrangement. Each registered ENF Shareholder otherwise entitled to a fractional interest in an Enbridge Share will receive the nearest whole number of Enbridge Shares. For greater certainty, where such fractional interest is greater than or equal to 0.5 of an Enbridge Share, the number of Enbridge Shares to be issued will be rounded up to the nearest whole number, and where such fractional interest is less than 0.5 of an Enbridge Share, the number of Enbridge Shares to be issued will be rounded down to the nearest whole number._


I held ENF shares in four trading accounts. My SDRSP, TFSA and two different Margin trading accounts. 

As of this morning my ENF shares are now ENB. 

It appears the number of ENB shares received were rounded down to the nearest whole number ENB share. The whole ENB shares I thought I was to receive for the fractional ENB shares equal to or greater than 0.50 ENB are missing.

I called my brokerage firm and was told by a representative I will be receiving (at some later date) cash payments for the partial ENB shares. 

That is not what I was expecting to hear and read to him over the phone what appeared on the Enbridge Income Fund web site. He left to talk with a supervisor and came back to say I would be receiving cash payments for my partial shares. 

I am getting two different stories with respects to the compensation for partial ENB shares. Which one should trump the other?


----------



## Beaver101

nortel'd said:


> According to.....
> www.enbridgeincomefund.com/Find-Sha...spx?_id=C3C9C846A14B4CF19221AA0E5E81B51A&_z=z
> 
> 5. What consideration will I receive for my ENF shares?
> 
> _No certificates representing fractional Enbridge Shares will be issued under the Arrangement. Each registered ENF Shareholder otherwise entitled to a fractional interest in an Enbridge Share will receive the nearest whole number of Enbridge Shares. For greater certainty, where such fractional interest is greater than or equal to 0.5 of an Enbridge Share, the number of Enbridge Shares to be issued will be rounded up to the nearest whole number, and where such fractional interest is less than 0.5 of an Enbridge Share, the number of Enbridge Shares to be issued will be rounded down to the nearest whole number._
> 
> 
> I held ENF shares in four trading accounts. My SDRSP, TFSA and two different Margin trading accounts.
> 
> As of this morning my ENF shares are now ENB.
> 
> It appears the number of ENB shares received were rounded down to the nearest whole number ENB share. The whole ENB shares I thought I was to receive for the fractional ENB shares equal to or greater than 0.50 ENB are missing.
> 
> I called my brokerage firm and was told by a representative I will be receiving (at some later date) cash payments for the partial ENB shares.
> 
> That is not what I was expecting to hear and read to him over the phone what appeared on the Enbridge Income Fund web site. He left to talk with a supervisor and came back to say I would be receiving cash payments for my partial shares.
> 
> I am getting two different stories with respects to the compensation for partial ENB shares. *Which one should trump the other*?


 ... you read it right. It should be "The whole ENB shares I thought I was* to receive for the fractional ENB shares equal to or greater than 0.50 ENB* are missing." (aka round up or eg. .50=1) as per ENB's legal document. There was nothing saying the fractional share was to be converted to cash at the discretion of the brokerage. Unless the brokerage has decided on taking the liberty of cashing in the fractional share with the residual cash payment of $.45 per share on your behalf. 

I would be more concerned now on the exact amount an ENF shareholder will be getting for the upcoming "2" dividend payments (ENB plus ENF) on this merger - as per their legal document/website.


----------



## carson

Beaver101 said:


> ... you read it right. It should be "The whole ENB shares I thought I was* to receive for the fractional ENB shares equal to or greater than 0.50 ENB* are missing." (aka round up or eg. .50=1) as per ENB's legal document. There was nothing saying the fractional share was to be converted to cash at the discretion of the brokerage. Unless the brokerage has decided on taking the liberty of cashing in the fractional share with the residual cash payment of $.45 per share on your behalf.
> 
> I would be more concerned now on the exact amount an ENF shareholder will be getting for the upcoming "2" dividend payments (ENB plus ENF) on this merger - as per their legal document/website.



I got my ENB shares today. In my case they rounded down to the nearest share so I missed out on .195 of a share. About 8$.

I also got my ENF dividend and the .45 per share cash amount for each ENF. The ENB dividend that we are eligible for is payable on December 1st.


----------



## Beaver101

carson said:


> I got my ENB shares today. In my case they rounded down to the nearest share so I missed out on .195 of a share. About 8$.


 ... legal documents were silent on less than half (or .50) of a share so it would be presumed to round down and logically to make up for the round up? But then what's stated explicitly in the legal document versus action by the brokerage is open to questioning. Perhaps poster nortel'd may put in an enquiry to Enbridge's Investor Relations about this - what's stated on their document versus what the brokerage is doing.



> I also got my ENF dividend and the .45 per share cash amount for each ENF. The ENB dividend that we are eligible for is payable on December 1st.


... okay, thanks. I have yet to check the dividends - only took a quick glance at the share conversion.


----------



## nortel'd

Beaver101 said:


> Perhaps poster nortel'd may put in an enquiry to Enbridge's Investor Relations about this - what's stated on their document versus what the brokerage is doing.



I emailed Enbridge Investor Relations this morning to complain I did not receive the whole ENB shares I was expecting. I also complained that my brokerage firms are not doing what I voted for.

Yesterday, I called TD Direct Investing and was told by a representative I will be receiving (at some later date) cash payments for the partial ENB shares. That is not what I was expecting to hear and read to him over the phone what appeared on the Enbridge Income Fund web site. He left to talk with a supervisor and came back to say I would be receiving cash payments for my partial shares. 


This morning, I called RBC Direct Investing and was told by a representative I would not be receiving any whole shares or cash for fractional shares at a later date. What is showing in my account is accurate. He informed me the information posted at www.enbridgeincomefund.com was no longer accurate after November 8, 2018. He believes Enbridge will not be honoring the above consideration on my fractional shares period! Not even a cash payment for a fractional share!

Within seconds I received the following automatic email reply:

_Automatic reply: Question About the Enbridge Income Fund to Enbridge Acquisition 

Thank you for your email and interest in the Enbridge Group of Companies.

We have included some information below related to our 3 most frequently addressed topics. If your query has not been satisfied by the responses provided below, we will endeavor to reply to your email within 5 business days.

1) If you are an investor looking for additional information related to Enbridge’s buy-in of its Sponsored Vehicles (EEP, EEQ, ENF, SEP), please find additional information below:

Enbridge Inc. has put forth separate proposals to acquire all of the outstanding publicly-held equity securities of Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (ENF), Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (EEP)/Enbridge Energy Management, L.L.C. (EEQ) and Spectra Energy Partners, LP (SEP). 

Following reviews by Special Committees of their respective Board of Directors, consisting solely of independent directors, Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (EEP) and Enbridge Energy Management, L.L.C. (EEQ) have agreed to terms with Enbridge Inc. for the acquisition of all outstanding public Class A common units of EEP and all of the outstanding public Listed Shares of EEQ. Detailed information on the transactions can be found in the press release jointly issued on September 18, 2018: http://www.enbridge.com/media-center/news/details?id=123529 

Additional information for EEP unitholders has been made available online here:
http://www.enbridgepartners.com/Investor-Relations/EEP/Investor-FAQ.aspx

Additional information for EEQ shareholders has been made available online here: 
http://www.enbridgemanagement.com/Investor-Relations/EEQ/Investor-FAQ.aspx 

Following a review by a Special Committee of its Board of Directors, consisting solely of independent directors, Enbridge Income fund Holdings Inc. (ENF) has agreed to terms with Enbridge Inc. for the acquisition of all the issued and outstanding public common shares of ENF. Detailed information on the transaction can be found in the press release jointly issued on September 18, 2018: http://www.enbridge.com/media-center/news/details?id=123528 

Additional information for ENF shareholders has been made available online here:
http://www.enbridgeincomefund.com/Find-Shareholder-Information/Acquisition-FAQs.aspx 

If you have any questions or require more information with respect to voting your ENF Shares, please contact ENF’s proxy solicitation agent, D.F. King Canada, by calling toll free in North America at 1-866-521-4425 (1-212-771-1133 by collect call) or by email at [email protected].

Following a review by an Independent Committee of its Board of Directors, consisting solely of independent directors, Spectra Energy Partners L.P. (SEP) has agreed to terms with Enbridge Inc. for the acquisition of all outstanding SEP units. Detailed information on the transaction can be found in the press release jointly issued on August 24, 2018: https://www.enbridge.com/media-center/news/details?id=123526

Additional information for SEP unitholders has been made available online here: 
http://www.spectraenergypartners.com/investors/shareholder-services/enbridge-acquisition-faq

There is no immediate action required by shareholders or unitholders of ENF, EEP, EEQ and SEP at this time. 

2) If you are an investor inquiring about your holdings or would to make a change to your account, please note, we do not have access to any security holder accounts and are therefore unable to perform address changes, confirmation of holdings, or provide statements of accounts. Please reach out to your account administrator (transfer agent or brokerage firm) directly for assistance with these matters. Registered ENB shareholders should reach out to AST Trust Company Canada at 1-800-821-2794.

3) If you are an investor looking for information on our dividends/distributions, please find the most recent declarations online:

ENB: Common Share Dividend Information
ENF: Dividend Schedule
EEP: Cash Distributions and Dates
EEQ: Share Distributions and Dates
SEP: Distribution History_


Hopefully Enbridge Investor Relations contacts me within 5 days.

Right now I am encouraged by this part of the email …

Additional information for ENF shareholders has been made available online here:
http://www.enbridgeincomefund.com/Find-Shareholder-Information/Acquisition-FAQs.aspx


----------



## Mechanic

I had 1000 ENF shares and I see they gave me 735 ENB shares and I also see a transaction giving me $450 which is the .45 a share, so sounds right


----------



## Beaver101

Of course, your #s look alright with the round even conversion. 

Suppose you had 900 shares instead and ended up with 661 ENB shares, are you okay with that?


----------



## james4beach

Brokers don't support fractional shares, so it's totally normal to get full shares plus cash payment for residual amounts. The same thing happens for DRIP payments where amounts less than 1 full share get paid as cash.

The new shares and cash may not show up at the same time, as well.


----------



## Beaver101

^Yes, normally that's what the brokerage does if plan of arrangement is silent but in this case, ENB's plan of arrangement is explicit that fractional share equal or greater than .5 gets round up to a whole share. 

Now re-reading nortel'd latest post, TDDI says he get $ for the = or > than .5 share but RBCDI tells him he is getting nothing for the half fractional share which is inconsistent amongst the brokerage. Unless RBCDI screwed up in what the told nortel'd.


----------



## nortel'd

I received a call Friday evening from the Enbridge Investor Relations department located in Calgary, Alberta. The gentleman who called talked to me for about 5 minutes and the information he provided was informative and enlightening.

I now know I am called a beneficial shareholder, a shareholder holding their ENF shares directly via AST Trust is called a registered shareholder and RBC Direct Investing and TD Direct Investing are called custodians . AST Trust serves as Enbridge’s registrar and transfer agent while the Canadian Depository for Securities (CDS) serves as the agent for RBC Direct Investing and TD Direct Investing.

For the ENF to ENB arrangement; 

I was a beneficial ENF shareholder not a registered ENF shareholder.

The statement I read at http://www.enbridgeincomefund.com/R...spx?_id=C3C9C846A14B4CF19221AA0E5E81B51A&_z=z regarding the treatment of fractional ENB shares greater than or equal to 0.50 ENB _applies to registered ENF shareholders_ who hold shares directly via AST Trust. It _does not apply to beneficial ENF shareholders_, the likes of me, whose ENF shares were held via a custodian.

Since TD Direct Investing and RBC Direct Investing were custodians of my ENF shares, the ENB shares TD Direct Investing and RBC Direct Investing received were via the Canadian Depository for Securities and these shares were not subject to a round up . 

For the ENF to ENB arrangement, TD Direct Investing and RBC Direct Investing let the CDS know the total number of ENF shares they were holding. In turn the CDS credited TD Direct Investing and RBC Direct Investing with the appropriate number of ENB shares at 1 ENF = 0.7350 ENB along with the $0.45 cash per ENF for the cash settlement. 

Under these circumstances it is expected TD Direct Investing and RBC Direct Investing should be giving cash in lieu for fractional shares. 
TD Direct Investing has already told me they are giving me cash. 

Hopefully the RBC Direct Investing representative I spoke with Friday morning was misinformed.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> The statement I read at http://www.enbridgeincomefund.com/Re...E5E81B51A&_z=z regarding the treatment of fractional ENB shares greater than or equal to 0.50 ENB *applies to registered ENF shareholders *who hold shares directly via AST Trust. *It does not apply to beneficial ENF shareholders,* the likes of me, whose ENF shares were held via a custodian.


 ... okay, thanks for clarifying this with ENB. It would considered to be fair to get the cash (worth $22.35?) on the fractional share for beneficial (aka non-registered) shareholders then. (And hopefully the "RBCDI" rep.just misinformed you.)


----------



## Dilbert

I had ENF across three different accounts. This morning there was a small cash payment in TDDI from ENB under a “CIL” designation. Presumably, this covers off the rounding issue.


----------



## Beaver101

^ I made an enquiry with my brokerage (BMOIL) and was told ENB did not give them any instructions/directions in regards to the fractional share residual or its value, contrary to TDDI. And thus, I'm to enquire directly with ENB about it. WTF.


----------



## nortel'd

Beaver101 said:


> ^ I made an enquiry with my brokerage (BMOIL) and was told ENB did not give them any instructions/directions in regards to the fractional share residual or its value, contrary to TDDI. And thus, I'm to enquire directly with ENB about it. WTF.


I think the RBCDI representative I talked to has transferred to BMOIL for better pay.

The way the ENB investor relations representative explained it to me last Friday ... ENB does not give custodians instructions. Enbridge can only give instructions to AST Trust which serves as their registrar and transfer agent.

I fired off an email to TDDI demanding my whole shares. Their reply ....

_“Fractional shares are not rounded up to the nearest whole share as this applies to shareholders who were holding Enbridge Income Fund in certificate form. Cash in Lieu (CIL) was paid out for fractional shares based on the fair market value as of closing price November 19 2018.”_

I fired off the same demand via a private message to RBCDI. Their reply …

_"Please be advised that the shares received via the Canadian Depository for Securities (CDS) were not subject to a round up . You will be receiving cash in lieu for a fractional share within 5 to 10 business days. We appreciate your patience in that regard."_

TDDI may be faster at paying out the CIL. 

Send a private message to BMOIL and ask what they plan to with/about the fractional ENB shares.


----------



## Beaver101

nortel'd said:


> I think the RBCDI representative I talked to has transferred to BMOIL for better pay.


 ... possibly but then I still don't think BMOIL had paid enough. He needs another transfer ... and please not to CIBCIE. 




> I fired off an email to TDDI demanding my whole shares. Their reply ....
> 
> _“Fractional shares are not rounded up to the nearest whole share as this applies to shareholders who were holding Enbridge Income Fund in certificate form. Cash in Lieu (CIL) was paid out for fractional shares based on the fair market value as of closing price November 19 2018.”_


 ... LOL, I like your 'demand' but but then getting CIL of the fractional .50 share would be considered "fair" I think.



> I fired off the same demand via a private message to RBCDI. Their reply …
> 
> _"Please be advised that the shares received via the Canadian Depository for Securities (CDS) were not subject to a round up . You will be receiving cash in lieu for a fractional share within 5 to 10 business days. We appreciate your patience in that regard."_


 ... glad that worked out.



> TDDI may be faster at paying out the CIL.
> 
> Send a private message to BMOIL and *ask what they plan to with/about the fractional ENB shares.*


 ... that's what I did after I was told to enquire with ENB which didn't make any sense. I'm not the broker and it is not my job to tell (aka "train") him what to do. Anyhow, I got credited finally for the fractional share as I think he got it "figured" out. And I'll leave it at that as I'm on the assumption he is new to the job. I don't think the next person will be that lucky with the response "we weren't told by the company what to do" and "go ask the company". I wasn't impressed.


----------



## agent99

Just read the circular on transfer of Enbridge Income Fund notes into Enbridge Notes. Don't have any problem with that, but was interested to see that they will pay note holders $0.25/$1000 as an 'amendment review fee' if they vote! I will be rich!


----------



## AltaRed

Yes, I have already voted my Series 4 to capture the 25 cents. LOL


----------



## agent99

AltaRed said:


> Yes, I have already voted my Series 4 to capture the 25 cents. LOL


I have $10k each of 2 series. Spent about 1/2hr reading the amendment and voting. So $5.00 or $10/hr?? That's below minimum wage.


----------



## AltaRed

agent99 said:


> I have $10k each of 2 series. Spent about 1/2hr reading the amendment and voting. So $5.00 or $10/hr?? That's below minimum wage.


Yeah, totally unncessary but somehow they must be wanting owners to vote rather than just default approval.


----------



## doctrine

Just wanted to follow up on ENB. Many posts here from March to May 2018 when ENB was crashing and hitting 5 year lows. I already had shares bought at $46 and then added some in March at $41 and $39. The low didn't come for another two months. ENB was trading at a 7% yield. 

Now ENB has closed at $49, higher than it's been for a year. Anyone holding or buying from that period has seen returns of 25-28% with dividends when the TSX has been flat or down; and the energy index is down 20%+. The dividend is also up 10% on strong increases in underlying cash flow.

ENB is looking very good here. Management so far has done what they said they would do. Although, the major stock discount against other pipelines has narrowed and is probably fair given ENB has a few challenges left. But anyone who held on and may be uncomfortable with the stock or energy or whatever could take the chance now to rebalance. It still has a nice 6% yield though after the increase. Well done to anyone who didn't sell the panic of a 5 year low!


----------



## dubmac

doctrine said:


> Just wanted to follow up on ENB. Well done to anyone who didn't sell the panic of a 5 year low!


My avg ENB cost is around 50 per share - so I am still underwater on ENB - but much happier that is (finally) looks healthier with the rebound. I had planned to hold this one for a while despite the noise in the market. There are still challenges ahead.


----------



## milhouse

I also added to my holdings on the way down. But it really does test you mentally as shares continue to fall and you question if you are in fact buying a strong company on the cheap or if everyone else knows something you don't and you're catching a falling knife, which I've also done a couple of times.


----------



## peterk

Finally Enbridge is starting to perform well. I'm up almost 20% plus dividends on 350 shares in my TFSA, and up 60% on two 2020 calls. Think I'll get out of the options if it hits $50.


----------



## humble_pie

peterk said:


> Finally Enbridge is starting to perform well. I'm up almost 20% plus dividends on 350 shares in my TFSA, and up 60% on two 2020 calls. Think I'll get out of the options if it hits $50.



i also hold long jan 2020 calls, these are DITM jan $40s. I don't have the appreciation you've gained though, as i bought em before you did, when underlying ENB price was higher & alas they cost more

on the other side i'm short jan 50s. It's a diagonal call spread. These structures are sometimes good to hold instead of actually buying the underlying stock, ie they're more volatile.

to liven things up even more, the diag is split between the TFSA & the margin. Long calls are in the TFSA, short calls are in the margin. Assignment could be tricky to navigate.

as you point out, stk @ 50 could be good jumping off point for the TFSA longs


----------



## Mechanic

Couldn't resist the nice profit and sold this morning. Got that juicy divvy payment too. Will likely buy this again on a dip.


----------



## peterk

Well good job Mechanic! I did not sell, was planning to trim when it hit $50. Oops...


----------



## Eder

I don't think the story has changed much...as usual the market is cranky and cut $6.5 billion off the company's value .Almost as much as the total cost of Line 3 replacement lol.


----------



## l1quidfinance

What is the story with this today?


----------



## cainvest

l1quidfinance said:


> What is the story with this today?


Line 3 in the US is delayed due to permits.


----------



## peterk

Line 3 commissioning is deferred by about 1 year due to seemingly unforeseen permitting delays in the States. 

I have a hard time understanding how the market makers were unable to price in this potential risk. Enbridge's recent declaration that things were on-schedule for fall 2019 startup seems to have been bought wholesale as 100% true.


----------



## londoncalling

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/enbridge-delays-line-3-pipeline-172630823.html

here is a source for the news. down 5% on the day. still up. still holding but not pleased with the announcement. hold a full position so not looking to add.


----------



## AltaRed

peterk said:


> Line 3 commissioning is deferred by about 1 year due to seemingly unforeseen permitting delays in the States.
> 
> I have a hard time understanding how the market makers were unable to price in this potential risk. Enbridge's recent declaration that things were on-schedule for fall 2019 startup seems to have been bought wholesale as 100% true.


Markets are irrational with lazy analysts taking Investor Presentations at face value. An investor is a fool to take development projects in such presentations at face value, both in schedule and cost.


----------



## doctrine

I was skeptical Line 3 would be up this year, but then again there is just essentially Minnesota that is left, all of Canada and the rest of the US is essentially done. This may take a few months to chew on but before if shovels hit the ground by the end of the year then all will be forgiven. This is a big chunk of their capex so it may delay cash flow growth in 2020.


----------



## AltaRed

doctrine said:


> I was skeptical Line 3 would be up this year, but then again there is just essentially Minnesota that is left, all of Canada and the rest of the US is essentially done. This may take a few months to chew on but before if shovels hit the ground by the end of the year then all will be forgiven. This is a big chunk of their capex so it may delay cash flow growth in 2020.


I agree this is not an issue for shareholders to worry about. I think Enbridge is talking about 2 construction spreads in Minnesota once they clear all the permits. That can be done in a 6 month period....provided they don't have a Standing Rock type interruption. If that happens, maybe Trump can send some of those troops dying of boredom along the southern front to wipe the landscape clean for construction to continue. The Standing Rock encampments on the DAPL were an environmental disgrace.


----------



## peterk

Bought some more yesterday @ $46.60 in my TFSA. Good move so far!


----------



## robfordlives

In today's pipeline lawsuit saga.......if victorious this would mean any existing pipeline in canada could be removed if the landowner doesn't want it. This is scary stuff

https://www.princegeorgecitizen.com...ail&utm_term=0_4d0889fc28-428c7dd2c3-95885101


----------



## Eder

Enbridge gets approval in time to get 2019 start on Line 3 in Minnesota.

https://business.financialpost.com/...eline-gets-final-ok-from-minnesota-regulators


----------



## AltaRed

Eder said:


> Enbridge gets approval in time to get 2019 start on Line 3 in Minnesota.
> 
> https://business.financialpost.com/...eline-gets-final-ok-from-minnesota-regulators


I don't think it means that. Minnesota said it was going to take months to get all the permits approved anyway.


> “It (the PUC decision) is good news for Enbridge undoubtedly, but they still have the issue of local permits that are delayed,” Wood Mackenzie analyst Mark Oberstoetter said.


----------



## Eder

Argg...its only 2 weeks after they thought approval was too late to hit the ground this season. Hopefully ENB issues their own update soon.


----------



## AltaRed

The local permit issue is still alive and well. Enbridge will push but local officials may drag it out.


----------



## doctrine

Sounds like "start in 2019" means permits in the fall and maybe a late construction start, but in-service still likely mid next year. Still, good news, and predictable result. Shutting down Line 3 is just not practical, it supplies too much oil to local refineries in the mid-west which can't just ship in container ships full of gasoline to meet the state's demands.


----------



## dubmac

ENB dropped like stone today ~-5%


----------



## AltaRed

Two setbacks... https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calg...assessment-enbridge-line-3-pipeline-1.5160404 and Line 5 (last week's annoyance) https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/wind...bradley-sarnia-pipeline-oil-propane-1.5158521

The Line 3 saga is getting ridiculous.


----------



## like_to_retire

dubmac said:


> ENB dropped like stone today ~-5%


A Minnesota court ruled on Monday that Enbridge Inc's final environmental impact statement for its Line 3 replacement project is inadequate, raising the possibility the Canadian crude oil pipeline could face further delays.

ltr


----------



## Bruins63

Anyone buying at $44ish? Nice divvy...just bought some Vermillion and Suncor...

Edit:Too late just bought ENB...just for the divvy, dont need to touch the principle fortunately...


----------



## kelaa

Bad news keep coming in with regards to the Line 3 replacement project, and Line 5 both in Minnesotan and Michigan. Enbridge can't catch a break.


----------



## Bruins63

kelaa said:


> Bad news keep coming in with regards to the Line 3 replacement project, and Line 5 both in Minnesotan and Michigan. Enbridge can't catch a break.


For me, buy and hold, live off the divvy...but u r correct, it seems they can’t catch a break...


----------



## doctrine

doctrine said:


> Sounds like "start in 2019" means permits in the fall and maybe a late construction start, but in-service still likely mid next year. Still, good news, and predictable result. Shutting down Line 3 is just not practical, it supplies too much oil to local refineries in the mid-west which can't just ship in container ships full of gasoline to meet the state's demands.


Despite all the hype and hoopla and risk and concern and headlines, in the end shutting down a state's entire oil supply is not practicable and Line 3 will be proceeding. All good news for ENB with no major regulatory challenges really left for them at this point on any of their projects. And a really nice 5.8% dividend yield to boot. Even though the stock is up 25% since Sep plus two dividends, it trades at a discount still to peers like TRP and PPL. Now my biggest holding just because of the gain, I remember being a big buyer of this two years ago in the $39-41 range. Dividend is up 20% since then.


----------



## cliffsecord

So, I've decided that I will no longer be adding to any O&G stocks but I've got an almost 4% position in ENB (but won't be adding anymore). I'm struggling to figure out what will happen to pipelines in the eventual slow down of oil.

I know that ENB is investing in renewables (wind and solar) and it's not like we'll stop using pipelines in the next 10 years but I feel that after 20 years the energy landscape will have a negative impact on hyderocarbons. Is this why IPL and PPL are making plastics factories?

Maybe ENB will change into a renewable energy provider in the distant future? Maybe they'll convert the pipelines to transport beer (look it up!!!)? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/08/bruges-pipe-dream-a-reality-beer-pipeline


----------



## Eder

ENB is at 52 week high...if you think there won't be a need for pipelines in 20 years then most likely time to sell. Personally I'll let my heirs sell my Enbridge, but I have a different outlook on pipelines.


----------



## AltaRed

Firstly, need to remember ENB in particular has a strong US presence, more so than TRP but still.. both have significant operations in the USA. I don't see oil demand rolling over (shrinking) for another 10+ years, and I suspect NG demand will keep increasing as coal fired generation is phased out and NG peaking plants will be necessary to stabilize the grid from notoriously cyclic renewable wind and solar farms. 

IF that is the case, the new growth will be in NG shipping capacity additions, and oil will hold its own...for the most part. That will limit growth of the asset base and revenue increases so I wouldn't pay growth multiples on either stock for long. At the same time, as long as both of these companies invest smartly with 20-25 year shipping contracts to mitigate the risk of stranded assets, and only invest where the opportunities are likely to be sustained, these stocks will be cash generators for a very long time. I see at least a 20+ year runway which exceeds my remaining time in a vertical position.


----------



## cainvest

Interesting news -> https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/former-bank-canada-governor-stephen-131742048.html


----------



## londoncalling

cainvest said:


> Interesting news -> https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/former-bank-canada-governor-stephen-131742048.html


Interesting news indeed. At least he took a few days off to relax.


----------



## R. Austin

Nearly at an 8% Div Yield today, given current prices. Sustainable?


----------



## dubmac

AltaRed said:


> which exceeds my remaining time in a vertical position.


nice finish Alta.

this is from Morningstar (May 7th).
Even with our lower estimates, we think the dividend looks more than safe.​Our near-term outlook is already baked into our valuation, and we don’t see any changes to our long-term outlook. Accordingly, we are maintaining our CAD 57 fair value estimate but lowering our U.S. fair value to $40 based on foreign exchange movements. The stock soared on the strong earnings release and is up over 6%. Despite the uptick, we still see significant upside coupled with the top-end dividend yield. Wide-moat and 5-star-rated Best Idea Enbridge remains one of our top picks in the energy sector. We think that the market is mistaken to price Enbridge as if oil prices will remain weak forever. However, we don't expect the market's concerns to be fully addressed for some time, which can lead to volatile swings in the stock.​that said, there will not likely be any dividend increases. I am buying on weakness (last time I bought was at 41 - trying to DCA this back into the green zone)


----------



## AltaRed

There just won't be that many growth projects to keep up the dividend growth pace and eventually, some pipelines may run at less than 100% throughput, particularly in the USA. That makes for minimal dividend growth.


----------



## londoncalling

https://www.enbridge.com/~/media/Enb/Documents/Investor%20Relations/2020/Enbridge%20Investment%20Community%20Presentation-%20September%202020.pdf



Latest presentation from Enbridge.


----------



## newfoundlander61

Enbridge granted key permits for Line 3 pipeline - BNN Bloomberg


----------



## newfoundlander61

And the story continues:

Enbridge Line 3 clears important hurdle as U.S. Army Corps awards federal permit, hopes to start construction of pipeline before the end of the year.


----------



## Eder

Ya, good news, just one permit left...

Today the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission issued their authorization to construct. The one remaining permit is a storm water permit which is provided by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.


----------



## AltaRed

What a clusterf**k this whole thing has been. I think 5 years and counting....for a replacement line yet! Let's hope ENB is finally able to get a shovel in the ground before the end of December.....


----------



## newfoundlander61

Minnesota gives final green light to Enbridge Line 3 pipeline project - BNN Bloomberg


----------



## Retiredguy

newfoundlander61 said:


> Minnesota gives final green light to Enbridge Line 3 pipeline project - BNN Bloomberg


Saw an article that indigenous groups were starting another lawsuit to stop it because , wait for it....the influx of workers would increase their risk of getting c19!


----------



## newfoundlander61

The saga continues.


----------



## agent99

newfoundlander61 said:


> The saga continues.


Any more bad news? I don't own Enbridge, but do have some Emera.


----------



## Eder

Its nothing but good news...Indians scared of getting Covid from construction crews is pretty frivolous and likely to get tossed.


----------



## agent99

Eder said:


> Its nothing but good news...Indians scared of getting Covid from construction crews is pretty frivolous and likely to get tossed.


I doubt the Indians think getting covid is "frivolous" !


----------



## AltaRed

Then they just need to stay away from protesting on/near the ROW!


----------



## agent99

AltaRed said:


> Then they just need to stay away from protesting on/near the ROW!


So the construction crews won't ever venture out of the pipeline right of way?

I can see their point - Moving those crews in will put locals at risk of contracting Covid. By protesting they may at least ensure that the contractors take proper precautions to avoid contact between their crews and the locals. It's much like the migrant farm workers and we know what happened there.


----------



## Retiredguy

In progress Kitimat LNG project facing same issue.


----------



## AltaRed

If First Nations don't want to risk Covid-19, then all they have to do is stay away from any construction crews and their work camps, wherever they are at. This is nothing more than the pot calling the kettle black. Then they will ***** about not having any of the economic spinoffs, e.g. local services, during construction.


----------



## newfoundlander61

Enbridge raises quarterly dividend, releases latest guidance - BNN Bloomberg


----------



## AltaRed

Highly disappointing. That cash flow should be used to buy down debt. I don't understand what management is doing. Debt/EBITDA is not decreasing.


----------



## Gator13

AltaRed said:


> Highly disappointing. That cash flow should be used to buy down debt. I don't understand what management is doing. Debt/EBITDA is not decreasing.


Agreed. Company and investors would have been much better served by debt repayment.


----------



## like_to_retire

Or maybe they could have offered a token dividend increase to keep their record alive. Something like a half percent and then put the rest to debt while telling everyone that's what their intent was for the move.

I think everyone would have respected that.

ltr


----------



## AltaRed

Today's Investor Presentation in all its gory detail. You will find various financial metrics in there. Debt repayment isn't a high priority (almost an after-thought). About the only thing they say is they 'intend' to maintain Debt/EBITDA in the 4.5-5.0 range (currently about 4.7),

They are obviously being fairly aggressive based on the cheap cost of debt vs CAGR of ~13 or so on shareholder equity. That works as long as debt is very cheap. My personal belief is any ratio higher than 4 on capital intensive companies is too high and it would be better to be in the 3.5 times range.


----------



## dubmac

I wonder what...are...they....think...ing?
I used to think that this was a well run company that hit a rough patch. Now, I'm not so sure.


----------



## james4beach

AltaRed said:


> Highly disappointing. That cash flow should be used to buy down debt. I don't understand what management is doing. Debt/EBITDA is not decreasing.


In the last year they borrowed $3 billion (new debt) and paid out $7 billion in dividends. They are funding their dividend with debt.

Source: the Q3 financials. In the cashflow statement you can see the dividends paid out, and on the balance sheet you can see the $3.3 billion increase in long term debt.


----------



## AltaRed

Take a look at page 24 and 25 of the investor presentation to see how they distribute cash flow. 

The equity portion of capital needs is self-funded, The rest is added debt while keeping D/EBITDA constant. I would have liked no dividend increase which would have resulted in a declining D/EBITDA ratio.


----------



## robertsclak

I have some,and feel it should be trading in the mid 50$ but it has been in the high 30$ to low 40 for many months. Good div.Has anyone any thoughts.


----------



## Numbersman61

ENB is significant part of my investment portfolio. I like the management and their business plan. I disagree with comments about reducing dividend increases.


----------



## Holland

james4beach said:


> In the last year they borrowed $3 billion (new debt) and paid out $7 billion in dividends. They are funding their dividend with debt.
> 
> Source: the Q3 financials. In the cashflow statement you can see the dividends paid out, and on the balance sheet you can see the $3.3 billion increase in long term debt.


Hi James, that's not the correct way of looking at the cash flow, in my opinion.

Enbridge and most midstream companies will increase shareholder returns by maintaining a higher debt equity ratio. The highly contracted nature of the cash flows allows the company to increase leverage, improving ROE.

As ENB grows and more projects come online, it makes sense for debt to increase to maintain the ideal amount of leverage in the financial structure.

The more contracted/predictable the cashflows, the higher the leverage can be. A REIT will be able to leverage up more than a pipeline company and an O&G producer will be able to achieve significantly less leverage than a pipeline company for example.

I think this then flows through to the returns. Generally you will pay a higher multiple the more guaranteed the cash flows are, which reduces the overall return. This is offset by the increase in leverage, which increased ROE.

I am not an expert, but this is how I think of it:
Pipeline --> highly contracted / predictable CF --> Pay a high multiple for the CF (reduced returns) --> High leverage increases returns

Producer --> Commodity exposed / risky CF --> Pay a low multiple for CF (increases returns) --> Low leverage decreases returns

Just my views on it, again I am not an expert.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> In the last year they borrowed $3 billion (new debt) and paid out $7 billion in dividends. They are funding their dividend with debt.
> 
> Source: the Q3 financials. In the cashflow statement you can see the dividends paid out, and on the balance sheet you can see the $3.3 billion increase in long term debt.


This is kind of true but kind of misleading too. They typically borrow for their growth projects and pay out their high dividend from their existing projects, which is normally how they present the financial summaries. This works until they run into challenges with growth projects or existing projects that impact cash flow. 

Also relevant is ENB has something like $8 billion invested in Line 3 for which they derive nearly zero revenue at this time but has been largely paid for. Once that comes online, there will be a big boost to revenue and cash flow and the leverage ratio will drop. With big pipes like ENB and TRP running out of large growth projects, both companies could choose to pay down this debt or perhaps look to acquisitions.


----------



## londoncalling

U.S. 'highly unlikely' to order Line 5 shut down as deadline on crucial pipeline nears, chief negotiator says (msn.com)


----------



## newfoundlander61

We will likely see this type of media coverage and talk for a while yet.


----------



## londoncalling

Canadian banks are loaning Enbridge over $1B with questionable sustainability requirements (msn.com) 

I never put much thought to some of the ideas presented in this article such as the banks involvement in financing these initiatives as it pertains to their support of ESG. Interesting that this is even part of the financing terms. I always thought it was a bit of a contradiction for the Canadian government to push environmental targets at the same time as propping up these projects.


----------



## doctrine

Even efforts to link debt to Paris accord requirements is being trashed.

_"“I don't think there's any way you can try to paint a tarsands company as sustainable,” she said. “The product they're pulling out of the earth is one of the most carbon-intensive processes to create oil in the entire world.”_

Cancel the pipelines. We don't need your oil and gas. Eliminate them -> (my paraphrasing) *"I don't care if they are carbon neutral, they're oil and gas."*

This is why the world is heading to an energy crisis now. No one wants to invest in energy anymore other than wind and solar. Starting to run out of coal now to replace natural gas. What is next, I wonder. Good feelings to fuel power plants?

On topic, all the better to be low debt or debt free like where the producers are going. One less stick to wield against you and faster cash returns to shareholders. ENB unfortunately won't be able to go there.


----------



## MrMatt

> Even efforts to link debt to Paris accord requirements is being trashed.
> 
> _"“I don't think there's any way you can try to paint a tarsands company as sustainable,” she said. “The product they're pulling out of the earth is one of the most carbon-intensive processes to create oil in the entire world.”_


I don't think there's any way you can try to paint an electric vehicle batter company as sustainable.
The product they're pulling out of the earth is one of the most environmentally toxic processes in the entire world.



> This is why the world is heading to an energy crisis now. No one wants to invest in energy anymore other than wind and solar. Starting to run out of coal now to replace natural gas. What is next, I wonder. Good feelings to fuel power plants?


The problem with religious extremists is they feel justified hurting a LOT of people.

They literally don't consider the thousands of lives that will be lost in pursuit of their greater goals.


----------



## like_to_retire

_“I don't think there's any way you can try to paint a tarsands company as sustainable,” she said............_FULL STOP - whenever I read the word tarsands, I stop reading and move on because I know I'm dealing with an extremist.

ltr


----------



## Eder

It is unfortunate that although our oil sands are responsible for ensuring confederation remains viable they have become the whipping boy of countless left extremists along with a media hungering for any disparaging BS to print about Alberta and our oil sand industry.
I think that will be ending in the near future.


----------



## zinfit

Eder said:


> It is unfortunate that although our oil sands are responsible for ensuring confederation remains viable they have become the whipping boy of countless left extremists along with a media hungering for any disparaging BS to print about Alberta and our oil sand industry.
> I think that will be ending in the near future.


You hit the nail on the head. Example about 13% of the Quebec annual government revenues comes from equalization and the formula for distributing equalization is heavily reliant on revenues derived from non-renewable resources. So provinces who have developed their oil and gas resources get no equalization and pay for Quebec 's equalization . It is interesting that Quebec has placed a moratorium on the developing of their own oil and gas resources. Yes I understand that Albertans are just whiners and eastern Canadians like Quebec must hold their noses and tolerate them.


----------



## diharv

Quebecers can hold their noses and keep their hands held out at the same time.


----------



## londoncalling

Release Details - Enbridge Inc. 

Completion of a previous asset sale announcement.


----------



## dubmac

ENB news.
Canada’s Natural Resources Minister says he is hearing “significant sympathy” from U.S. officials for the plight of the Line 5 pipeline.​Jonathan Wilkinson is in Washington for meetings with lawmakers, Biden administration officials and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm.​Mr. Wilkinson says that while Canada is focused on keeping the cross-border pipeline operating, the government is also exploring contingency plans _in the event a court orders it shut down._​​from the Globe and Mail


----------



## 8ballcornerpocket

Hi, can someone please confirm if enbridge drips their diviend? I am with bmo investorline and it is the only stock that does not drip. 

Thanks


----------



## londoncalling

Hello @8ballcornerpocket 

There is a dedicated thread for Enbridge here Enbridge (ENB.TO) | Canadian Money Forum which discusses its dividend policy. 

The Enbridge Investor Relations site answers your question as well.

Does Enbridge have a reinvestment program? - Enbridge Inc.


----------



## Birder

Yes, my ENB shares drip at CIBC Investor's Edge. You may need to call BMOIL to get them to set it up.


----------



## Raggedy Dandy

londoncalling said:


> The Enbridge Investor Relations site answers your question as well.
> 
> Does Enbridge have a reinvestment program? - Enbridge Inc.


this link above is out of date:

ENB DRIP Suspension


----------



## Raggedy Dandy

Birder said:


> Yes, my ENB shares drip at CIBC Investor's Edge. You may need to call BMOIL to get them to set it up.


Can confirm BMOIL does not DRIP ENB shares.


----------



## AltaRed

Note that a company's DRIP plan is not the same as a brokerage synthetic DRIP so the Enbridge announcement doesn't apply to the question being asked.

It is up to discount brokerages whether they do synthetic drips or not for any one or more of publicly traded stocks/ETFs. I've never engaged in DRIP at any time in my entire investing journey out of principle (I don't believe in it), so don't know what any one brokerage's limitations are. At one time, my spouse synthetic drip'd certain of her ETF holdings at RBC DI but she couldn't drip everything.


----------



## Raggedy Dandy

AltaRed said:


> Note that a company's DRIP plan is not the same as a brokerage synthetic DRIP so the Enbridge announcement doesn't apply to the question being asked.
> 
> It is up to discount brokerages whether they do synthetic drips or not for any one or more of publicly traded stocks/ETFs. I've never engaged in DRIP at any time in my entire investing journey out of principle (I don't believe in it), so don't know what any one brokerage's limitations are. At one time, my spouse synthetic drip'd certain of her ETF holdings at RBC DI but she couldn't drip everything.


True, they are separate programs. My experience with BMOIL is that it is tied to the company policy. My last synthetic DRIPS with both ENB and CPX aligned with the timing of both companies halting their DRIP programs.


----------



## 8ballcornerpocket

So it is up to each discount brokerage to synthetic drip. Good to know
I knew ENB suspended their drip in 2018, but also read on another site that their dividend in enb is still synthetic dripping in their discount brokerage account.

Thank you everyone for the info and confirmation of non drip in bmoil.

Cheers!


----------



## cardhu

8ballcornerpocket said:


> I am with bmo investorline and it is the only stock that does not drip.


It may be the only stock you own that doesn’t DRIP, but there are thousands of others … BMOIL is a bit of an oddball in its DRIP policies … for one thing, they won’t DRIP US domiciled companies … and when you look at their list of DRIP-eligible stocks, it is dominated by obscure ETFs and preferred shares … I’ve never actually seen a preferred that DRIPs into more of itself, but I do own a few where the preferred dividends DRIP into the associated common shares ... I assume that's what these do. 

The only explanation I can think of is that BMOIL has made an executive decision not to offer a synthetic DRIP at all.



AltaRed said:


> Note that a company's DRIP plan is not the same as a brokerage synthetic DRIP so the Enbridge announcement doesn't apply to the question being asked.


True that they’re not the same … but since BMOIL doesn’t seem to offer a synthetic DRIP, the Enbridge announcement is really the only thing that *does* apply. 



AltaRed said:


> I've never engaged in DRIP at any time in my entire investing journey out of principle (I don't believe in it),


I knew a guy who wouldn’t eat outdoors unless he was facing exactly 60 degrees east of north … would rather go hungry if he was facing any other direction … he said he did this out of principle (didn’t believe in it) … I just thought he was weird.



Raggedy Dandy said:


> My last synthetic DRIPS with both ENB and CPX aligned with the timing of both companies halting their DRIP programs.


Then they were never synthetic DRIPs in the first place.


----------



## Raggedy Dandy

cardhu said:


> Then they were never synthetic DRIPs in the first place.


Call it what you will. I only get full shares and the remainder in cash, and it's through BMOIL - i've never registered for a pure DRIP from the company themselves.


----------



## AltaRed

cardhu said:


> I knew a guy who wouldn’t eat outdoors unless he was facing exactly 60 degrees east of north … would rather go hungry if he was facing any other direction … he said he did this out of principle (didn’t believe in it) … I just thought he was weird.


Maybe but a lot of us won't DRIP, especially in taxable accounts with the associated ACB record keeping. 

FWIW, the principle for me was I wanted to decide where I want to invest that cash each month or quarter. I pooled that money with new money (at the time) to buy lots (multiples of 100s of shares) of something else in most cases. Now in retirement, I use all my investment income spend and/or gifting.


----------



## Gator13

AltaRed said:


> Maybe but a lot of us won't DRIP, especially in taxable accounts with the associated ACB record keeping.
> 
> FWIW, the principle for me was I wanted to decide where I want to invest that cash each month or quarter. I pooled that money with new money (at the time) to buy lots (multiples of 100s of shares) of something else in most cases. Now in retirement, I use all my investment income spend and/or gifting.


This echoes my thoughts. I preferred to pool my distributions and deposits and target my purchases. More importantly, I definitely didn't want the ACB headaches in taxable accounts. I can see the merit for registered accounts.


----------



## cardhu

Raggedy Dandy said:


> Call it what you will.


No thanks, I’ll just call it what it is … whole shares only, with remainder in cash, has nothing to do with it … that’s not what “synthetic DRIP” means.



AltaRed said:


> Maybe but a lot of us won't DRIP, especially in taxable accounts with the associated ACB record keeping.


Agreed, and I’m one of those people who won’t DRIP in taxable accounts with the associated ACB record keeping … I avoid doing that as a matter of choice (I don’t wanna do it ) 



AltaRed said:


> FWIW, the principle for me was I wanted to decide where I want to invest that cash each month or quarter. I pooled that money with new money (at the time) to buy lots (multiples of 100s of shares) of something else in most cases.


That's fine ... you can make whatever choices you want and for whatever reasons you want … however I still think the expression “a matter of principle” doesn’t really seem to fit the circumstances … there’s nothing inherently “right or wrong” about choosing to DRIP ... its just a choice.


----------



## 8ballcornerpocket

In my case ENB is held in a LIRA account. Not worried about ACB for taxes. All my other stocks in that account are indeed dripping thus leaving me very little cash to actually pool. Maybe, thinking of selling ENB for TRP( I did verify on the BMOIL list, it's there  but then I would incur 20$ in trades😒


----------



## cardhu

I do DRIP in RRSP accounts, where there are no ACB implications… some have been going for +25 years … it’s a good auto-pilot method of staying somewhat fully invested … I don’t worry to much about individual stock positions drifting apart from each other in value … that's gonna happen either way, with or without DRIP.


----------



## Raggedy Dandy

cardhu said:


> No thanks, I’ll just call it what it is … whole shares only, with remainder in cash, has nothing to do with it … that’s not what “synthetic DRIP” means.


Care to share with the class then? I'm happy to be corrected, but every search indicates this is exactly what it is. 

If you're just going to say "no it isn't" without adding more, we can agree to disagree and go our ways.


----------



## Eclectic21

I suspect it is that the broker is buying the shares on the open market for the investor. 
Which would not be changed by the suspension of the company DRIP.









DRIPs


This blog is about saving and investing my way beyond a $1 million portfolio. …and using DRIPs have helped us! What is a DRIP? A DRIP is an acronym for Dividend ReInvestment Plan. Y…




www.myownadvisor.ca






Cheers


----------



## moderator2

Merged the recent ENB dividend question into the main Enbridge thread


----------



## londoncalling

moderator2 said:


> Merged the recent ENB dividend question into the main Enbridge thread


Thanks @moderator2. Unfortunately, this forum has a ton of threads for the same stock names. I understand many would rather post their question than read through pages of posts especially if the information is outdated. However, I personally find the backstory interesting if not helpful.


----------



## AltaRed

Rather than go directly to threads, simply click on "NEW" in the upper right to get what is new on the thread...assuming you don't erase cookies from your browser all the time, and the thread goes to the last post read.


----------



## cardhu

Raggedy Dandy said:


> Care to share with the class then? I'm happy to be corrected, but every search indicates this is exactly what it is.
> If you're just going to say "no it isn't" without adding more, we can agree to disagree and go our ways.


But I’m not disagreeing … facts aren’t subject to agreement or disagreement … they simply are what they are … for example, 2+4=6 … that is a fact, but if for some reason you thought 2+4=3 (perhaps every search indicates this is exactly what it is), then we wouldn’t be agreeing to disagree, you’d simply be wrong … period … full stop … it is a fact that whole shares with remainder in cash is irrelevant … that’s not what “synthetic DRIP” means … and that you hold your shares at BMOIL and have never registered directly with ENB is also irrelevant and also not what “synthetic DRIP” means … it doesn’t matter how many people you find online who might share your misconception, facts are not subject to a vote … it is possible that a synthetic DRIP might have these attributes, but it is also possible for a company-sponsored DRIP to have these same attributes, therefore, in determining whether or not a DRIP is synthetic, these observations are inconclusive … period … full stop. 

A synthetic DRIP is a DRIP that is performed by some third party *other than* the dividend issuing company itself (or its transfer agent) … and conversely if the DRIP is executed by the company itself (or its transfer agent), then it is NOT a synthetic DRIP … in other words, ENB doesn’t perform a “synthetic DRIP” on its own shares … the pattern you described indicates that BMOIL was never performing any reinvesting in the first place, but was simply placing into your account whatever stuff ENB delivered to them on your behalf … if said “stuff” consisted of some combination of shares and cash, then that’s what they deposited into your account, and if said “stuff” consisted solely of cash, then that’s what they deposited. The key is where did the shares originate?

Think about it … if BMOIL had been buying shares in the open market all this time, why would they suddenly stop? The only plausible answer is that they wouldn’t … brokers who actually do offer a synthetic DRIP never stopped, but BMOIL did … WHY??? … on the other hand, if they were simply depositing into your account the “stuff” that ENB delivered to them, then the pattern of transactions in your account makes sense. 

Think about this as well … have you ever heard of a DRIP discount being applied at a discount broker? … there you go … further proof that it is NOT a synthetic DRIP … synthetic DRIPs are NEVER offered at a discount to market value … never. 

As I said in my earlier post, all the evidence, including your own, strongly suggests that BMOIL doesn’t offer a synthetic DRIP at all … that all they’re doing is putting stuff in your account, in whatever form it is delivered to them by the issuing companies. Other discount brokers do offer synthetic DRIP, but BMOIL has apparently decided not to.


----------



## AltaRed

I agree with the definition of synthetic drip in post #651. As I understand it, BMO Investorline synthetic DRIP is quite limited. I found this list for whatever that is worth.


----------



## cardhu

Yeah, that's the list I referred to upthread ... I haven't verified all 780 items on that list, of course, but I spot-checked a few and of those I checked 100% have company-sponsored DRIP programs in place ... all signs point to there not being any synthetic DRIP at all.

One of the sure signs that a DRIP is, indeed, synthetic, is where the dividend-issuing company doesn't have its own in-house DRIP program.


----------

