# Alliance Grain Traders (AGT.TO)



## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

I'm starting to accumulate AGT shares under $13.00
for long term hold, since it pays a juicy 4.8% dividend.
It has very low volume......is that because it's not a
good stock or that no one has recognized it yet ?


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## sam (Mar 16, 2012)

nothing wrong with the volume. 77k avg daily vol is more than enough for a company with market cap of 247.8M


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

thanks sam for answer on the volume....
is it a good long term hold stock to 
accumulate for the dividend ?
what do others think of this stock ?


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## Ethan (Aug 8, 2010)

I bought this stock in April of 2010 for $33.65 and sold for $33.37 in June of 2010. With the flooding issues we had in Saskatchewan that year I didn't think farmers would get off good crops, leaving Alliance with less pulse crops to buy/sell. I'm glad I got out considering what the share price has done since then.

Alliance has been hit hard by the European debt crisis. European banks have cut back on lending to food importers in the developing world, leading them to draw down their inventories. As a result, Alliance's sales are hurting and inventories are rising (4 straight years of increasing inventory). Management, as well as several analysts, believe that pulse inventories in these countries is critically low, which will eventually drive an increase in Alliance's sales.

Of concern to me is that inventory has risen in each of the past 4 years. Also of concern is the negative operating cashflows in 3 of the past 4 years. Regardless, they have done well considering lending has all but dried up for the majority of their customers, and the difficulties farmers have encountered in the prairies in 2010 and 2011. Hopefully the warm winter and relatively low snow fall this year will help the prairie farmers have a better season, coupled with better demand from developing nations running low on pulse inventories.

Long-term I like the stock but it certainly is facing some short-term headwinds.


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## Ethan (Aug 8, 2010)

Globe & Mail article that can better summarize what I said above. Forgot about the Arab spring and currency devaluations that also hurt AGT:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...raders-hit-by-lull-in-lentils/article2385339/


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

thanks so much ethan, much appreciated.
i'm going to continue to accumulate @
the $12.50ish level, hold long term and
enjoy the great dividend.


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## tencents (Apr 20, 2012)

*Hard time for grain traders*

2011 special crops harvesting was very good, Canadian farmers had high quantity and quality products, but other countries had same too. Brifly high supply less demand. Also Canadian farmers are not happy to deal with the big company too. Canadain visible grain stocks are still very high, companies selling products with out making any money they woulld like to keep their costumers. If we see some bankrupcy in couple months not a suprise.


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## rassmy (May 7, 2010)

I don't mind own AGT. However there are other investements that can generate 4 or 5% dividend yield with solid blueship companies. Bottom line I will not invest more than 3% of my portfolio in AGT.


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

I hear ya rassmy, thanks.


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

I started to accumulate AGT 2 weeks ago for the long term
attracted to the 4+% dividend.....but I had to sell to-day
because I couldn't resist the 11% profit


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i don't own this company, had never even heard of this company.

the story is appealing. I won't buy at the present time, but i'll follow this story. What i'd like to find out more about is the large insider holding belonging to the turkish director. This may be mostly an offshore story which has appointed its local canada-based entrepreneurial ceo out of the cultural communities.

like other reporters, i'm interested in the story stocks. When looking at a new company, i always want to know who these people are, are they trustworthy, are they competent, where have they been in life, what is their business plan & mission.

i'm less interested in their day-to-day earnings, ops & balance sheets. There are always plenty of excellent analysts who are anxious to spend their talented time crunching these numbers. On the grounds that competent, trustworthy management can usually navigate even through the challenging times, i try to stick with the long-term story.

this story ? an interesting recipe. Possibly could turn out to be a winning dish.


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