# The Road Ahead



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Where do you see the world and investments go now that we have seen some of the problems in Europe and the debt mess in the US and so on?

There are still two camps and that is deflation and inflation camps. The inflation camp suggests that money printing will simply lead to inflation and then hyper-inflation. We have seen the inflation effects priced into commodities when the Fed or central banks print. The inflation camp however doesn't understand that the printing must get ahead of the destruction of credit in order to truly create a lasting inflation.

Deflation is still the path to go at this time because of the backlash the central banks receive when they do print money. However a time of overwhelming printing could occur if the economic pain becomes to great. 

Another wild card will be if the world goes to war due to the turmoils at home. Wars will end any resistance to money printing as tons of cash will be needed to fight the wars. It will be interesting how Iran gets dealt with among other things as we go forward. It will also be interesting to see if democracy holds up in every country the US included. It would be interesting to hear your take on the potential political mess in the world as we go forward.

Lastly what to invest and not to invest in as we go forward in your opinion?

I look to gold miners as the cheapest way to play the turmoil going forward as the miners haven't taken part in the climb of gold in the past year. Oil will not surge as everyone thinks unless the wars get going or you see a real big money printing program get going. Uranium rare earth and so on will continue to lag and then burst forward after the turmoil probably in late 2013 to 2014. You would think value stocks paying good dividends will burst ahead and not suffer as greatly this time around as everything goes to pot.

I also think financial stocks should continue to be avoided right now including the Canadian banks. Our banks can get hit from the damage coming out of Europe and the US and also the Canadian consumers have to much debt with a housing sector going into a correction.


----------



## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Yes, I see tough times ahead.












*Inflation. * I fall into this camp. We are going to hit a point soon, where inflation will start kicking into high gear.

*Financials.* At this point in time, I am underweight financials.
*Gold miners.* I like this going forward.

*Debt Mess. * Deleveraging will be a drag on developed markets for years.

*Developed market stocks.* Canada / US / EAFE. I am decreasing my weighting here. 

*Emerging market stocks.* The BRICs, etc. I am increasing my weighting here. 

*Developed market multinationals.* I want to start researching for, and adding, developed market stocks that derive a lot of their revenue from emerging markets. (In fact, we should start a thread just on this topic, where we research individual companies and their foreign revenues. Example, Philip Morris.)


----------



## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

avrex said:


> (In fact, we should start a thread just on this topic, where we research individual companies and their foreign revenues. Example, Philip Morris.)


Good idea.


----------



## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

Avrex - I loved that movie and it sparked a lot of conversations at home about end of civilization scenarios.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

We are three years into a lost decade for investors.


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Ihatetaxes never mention to anyone about the wealth you have hidden at home even on a forum like and even when using an alias. 

I also hope we don't go so far downhill that we have to resort to guns and canned goods to survive. Gold would not be much use under an extreme scenario because as soon as you use it there will be a knife at your throat demanding to know where you keep it.

Avrex I suppose your inflation stand gives you that bias to emerging markets. I don't happen to agree with you on the threat of inflation at this time because of the amount of debt that needs to be destroyed. But like I said if the central bank prints enough to overcome debt obligations then watch out.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Money managers--the eternal optimists:

http://www.advisor.ca/news/industry-news/money-managers-bullish-about-2012-68208

With this posting, I have now submitted 1500 well thought out responses on this forum.

You're welcome!!!


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

It would take a couple of pages to explore all the dangerous economic problems in the world today. 

Everything from unemployment...credit debt.... political stalemate.....falling home prices.....inflation.....war......and on and on.

It would take a sentence or two to outline the positives in the world.

Based on that...........I would say the "end game" is coming.

The question for me is what the end game looks like?


----------



## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

sags said:


> Based on that...........I would say the "end game" is coming.
> 
> The question for me is what the end game looks like?


For all you folks who see "the end game" coming, how many are preparing to join me in the country? I can't see being in a city working if things fall to pieces. If 10,000 other people live within a km of you, no amount of guns will keep them from coming at you like zombies for your canned goods.

hboy43


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Hboy is right on this one so the safest place to be will probably be in a well connected gang or something. So lets hope end game just means the currencies and debt situation gets reset and we all start fresh again like the end of the second world war.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Belguy said:


> With this posting, I have now submitted 1500 well thought out responses on this forum. You're welcome!!!


LOL, talk about a self-appreciating pessimist.  Thank you Mr. Belguy. 

As you would say, fasten your seatbelts as it is going to be a very bumpy & exciting roller-coaster year # 4 I think, right?  [I just need 52 more posts to catch up to you!]


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Based on some of the above comments, I think that there are some posters on this forum that might be even more pessimistic than I am.

As of closing yesterday, the TSX is down 12.57% on the year with no possibility of ending the year in positive territory. Did anyone on this forum predict this much of a down year?

The S&P 500 is down 1.11% and so there is still a chance that it could finish flat or even slightly positive for the year.

There is not a whole lot to cheer about.

Aside from the Euro mess, I worry most about what is going to happen over the Iranian nuclear issue. I think that they will end up passing information necessary to make a dirty bomb to some terrorist group who will then explode a few in some large American cities and I have absolutely no idea how the security folks could stop such a thing.

Merry Christmas!!

It's a brave new world that we live in!!


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

hboy43 said:


> For all you folks who see "the end game" coming, how many are preparing to join me in the country? I can't see being in a city working if things fall to pieces. If 10,000 other people live within a km of you, no amount of guns will keep them from coming at you like zombies for your canned goods.
> 
> hboy43


We have to be nearing a bottom when posts are starting to talk about the end game and hourdes of zombies.

Listen. You need to shake your head a little from all this doom and gloom and look around you. What do I see?

Well I see:

1) Most importantly, I see European sovereign debt yields going lower almost everyday now, for the last few weeks.
2) I see continued increases in retail sales, almost every month.
3) US leading economic indicator was up 0.5% in November (that signals over 6% GDP growth) and it was positive in October and September as well.
4) Claims for unemployment in the US is falling.
5) Corporate profits are higher then they have ever been in history. This is leading to large scale dividend increases and share buybacks.
6) Business inventories are at historical low levels.
7) Corporate debt is lower then historical averages and cash levels are at almost record levels.
8) Interest rates are lower then they have ever been.
9) Credit to Business Loans is continuing to expand

and lastly

10) Stocks are freaken cheap. The PE on stocks are cheaper today then ever, in any time, of my 25 years of investing lifespan.

Anyways, cheer up and have a great Christmas.


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

You know how bearish I am but at the same time OptsyEagle does make some good points. At the end of the last disaster and that being the early 80's it was all but certain that inflation was going to the moon and gold and silver along with it. Also I am hearing daily about managers and other talking heads telling people that we need to be on the sidelines and in cash. The forum sentiment is also very negative with no one predicting any lasting upside in 2012.

This has me thinking that we need a better bear trap to suck in the cash before the great drop comes. Having said all this I am sure there are companies out there right now selling at their cash value giving many a very good opportunity to buy and hold certain stocks. 

I still think we have to go down hard at some point to flush out the debt and that will come in the tune of higher interest rates in the US. The Fed will need to print very hard to stop this so we will see if that comes to pass.


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Belguy you throw out the Iran wildcard which a little gold and oil in the portfolio should help if it does get wild. Right now I am hearing pipelines are probably the place to be at this time they can transport the oil but also the Nat Gas without worrying as much about the price of Nat Gas.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i think we will muddle through and avoid rampant inflation or collapse ... (the world political situation is another story and there are a lot of problems there like pakistan and iran)

deflation is a bigger threat than inflation, interest rates will remain low

the fed will do everything it can not to print money and as long as we see this continued trickle of bits of good news, they won't print

if the first quarter starts to go south then we might see some printing (600B) in the march meeting but even that won't stoke inflation

gold will continue to sink or go sideways

buy defensive stocks like staples and utilities

buy the very big companies with the reserves to withstand shocks especially those that have large operations in the developing world

if you have any long term money to spare, buy base metal stocks and water utilities and agriculture and uranium 

subscribe to my newsletter for the introductory low price of only $777.00 for the first 6-months .. sign up at im-as-clueless-as-the-next-guy.com


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Heh, fatcat, I have been trying to subscribe to your newsletter but the website that you provided is not working??


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

OptsyEagle said:


> We have to be nearing a bottom when posts are starting to talk about the end game and hourdes of zombies.
> 
> Listen. You need to shake your head a little from all this doom and gloom and look around you. What do I see?
> 
> ...


u r right about all
i just follow the charts
theey never lie.
sure stocks are cheap compared to 2007 but watch january when the bad news are released, or do u think that none will come?
if anyone is buying at the highs now they will be trapped
the mkts will climb till years end . it is historical and i dont think very bad news will come up.
i am very very bearish overall
a gain of 4k rise on unemployment rate during holyday season is ludicrous.
my best guess on the spx 500 is at years end max 1275
happy holydays

and remember u dont get out of debt with more debt


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I think something is going to happen in the markets.


----------



## tombiosis (Dec 18, 2010)

Loved Cormac's "The Road"...if you've only seen the movie, you must still read the book.
I also have very little optimism when it comes to my financial future...I've been investing for 15 years, and trying my hand at DIY for about a year. Everything I've bought has dropped in value. Maybe I should start my own newsletter, where people subscribe to find out my next move so they can short it...pretty much guaranteed success if my track record is any indication.
The best investment I have made has been a piece of land in the country. I have access to water, fish, game and wild edibles, and I plan to start a garden. If and when the "s...h... the fan" I can at least survive for awhile...at least until the bullets run out when the zombies arrive. 
I saw a show on Nat Geo called "Doomsday Preppers"...There % of population that believe the End is nigh is quite surprising...and there are tons of web sites and forums about it as well...I have even seen people selling "Bobs" (Bug out Bags) on kijiji etc...I must admit I have assembled one myself, just in case.
At least most of us on here have lived pretty long lives already...I just feel bad for what is to come for our kids and grandkids...as Garth Turner points out..."this won't end well".
Merry Christmas, and God Bless Us, everyone.


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

newbie said:


> sure stocks are cheap compared to 2007 but watch january when the bad news are released, or do u think that none will come?


Oh, there will always be a good assortment of bad news ...and good news for that matter.

The thing to always remember is that stocks do not go up because their futures are bright ... they go up because their futures are brighter then expected.

and by the way... charts tend to lie too often to make them useful, but thats another thread.


----------



## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

I am not sure how the media or markets will take it, as it may be a buying opportunity, but me thinks that at least one of the euro debtors (maybe Greece or Italy) will do some form of a controlled default. They almost have to.


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

OptsyEagle must be feeling more confident of his positions with all the naysayers on here. It takes money to move the market and the more people that want to sit out the more cash is available to move the market later. It will take a game ending position coming out of Europe with little response from the Fed to overwhelm and send the market to extreme lows. 

I do think this will happen but I don't want to step in front of the train of cash that OptsyEagle is alluding to along with the cheaper stocks at this time. So be defensive but don't short the market because you will be sorry.


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I read about a good description of the market in the book, Millionaire Teacher. 
He says the market goes in cycle, like a dog on the leash. Sometimes, the dog tries to go to far, ahead of his leash. This would mean the market is over priced. Then the owner snaps the leash, and the dog comes back to the owner. In this case, the market is cheap. 

After a while the market remains cheap, bad things happen, people freak out and sell. Then all of the sudden, they start jumping in like crazy and it all starts catching up again. Meanwhile I buy on the dips and stay invested for a long time.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Belguy said:


> Heh, fatcat, I have been trying to subscribe to your newsletter but the website that you provided is not working??


 oh sorry ... it's supposed to be: i-have-no-idea-but-gimme-your-money-anyway.com

much of our discussion assumes that markets are working and i don't think they are .. markets are broken, so to be bearish or bullish is really something of a fantasy ... the politicians control the markets and they will do whatever it takes to keep them limping along sideways, hoping and praying that something will break in their favor ... 

i have unlimited faith in the incompetence and corruption of the political class

so barring a black swan event like war or italian default, i think the politicans are perfectly capable of patching it for quite a while to come - like say 5 years

5 years out however and we may all be totally screwed ... but that's 5 years away


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Kevin O'Leary refers to these markets as Rip Van Winkle markets. You can look at them at the first of the year, then fall asleep for the rest of the year and then wake up at year's end and look at them again and they will hardly have moved!! 

Such will likely be the case for many more years to come given the world economic situation.

Buy, hold, go to sleep, and make nothing!!

Maybe I will check the value of my portfolio on January 1 and then again in ten year's time to see if it has increased in value to any significant degree.

I'm not too hopeful.

Also, from the Globe and Mail, Rob Carrick's year end wrap:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...was/article2282455/singlepage/#articlecontent


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

tombiosis said:


> Loved Cormac's "The Road"...if you've only seen the movie, you must still read the book.
> I also have very little optimism when it comes to my financial future...I've been investing for 15 years, and trying my hand at DIY for about a year. Everything I've bought has dropped in value. Maybe I should start my own newsletter, where people subscribe to find out my next move so they can short it...pretty much guaranteed success if my track record is any indication.
> The best investment I have made has been a piece of land in the country. I have access to water, fish, game and wild edibles, and I plan to start a garden. If and when the "s...h... the fan" I can at least survive for awhile...at least until the bullets run out when the zombies arrive.
> I saw a show on Nat Geo called "Doomsday Preppers"...There % of population that believe the End is nigh is quite surprising...and there are tons of web sites and forums about it as well...I have even seen people selling "Bobs" (Bug out Bags) on kijiji etc...I must admit I have assembled one myself, just in case.
> ...


man this was the most hilarious post i have read.
i really liked the sense of humour u have about all the tragic year we r leaving behind us .
nevertheless , dont give on the DIY cuz if u dont DIY nobody will.
be tenacious and u will get there.
been there and also lost tons of money till i got some grip on my trading ways.
after all if trading was easy everybody would be rich right.
happy holidays.
i dont want u to create a newsletter just focus on what u trade


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

OptsyEagle said:


> Oh, there will always be a good assortment of bad news ...and good news for that matter.
> 
> The thing to always remember is that stocks do not go up because their futures are bright ... they go up because their futures are brighter then expected.
> 
> and by the way... charts tend to lie too often to make them useful, but thats another thread.


how about u prove to me otherwise about charts , specially atm.
we can start a thread anytime my friend.
one more thing.
the trend is ur friend , till it ends and this Santa euphoria on light trading will fizzle faster than it rallied.
one more thing, the actual weight of bad news coming ahead of us will be pretty dramatic imo , unless u think adding an extra 4k jobs on analysts estimate is fabulous.
or if u think a sovereign country downgrade is not bad enough how about a default of any large bank in europe?
just thinking of possible scenarios.
next is Japan downgrade , it will come sooner than later.

forgot another wildcard, Iran , u think the israelis will let them get their nuke?
i lived the iraqi atack , and to preserve Israels existence they will atack Iran , count on that one also.
oil will hit the roof.
i am going to work with my bike if that happens.
stocks will tank and so on and so forth.


----------



## mind_business (Sep 24, 2011)

Soooo, you're recommending Oil Stocks in 2012 

I'm not in the extreme doom and gloom category for 2012 ... well except for the zombies. However I've got to admit it's a bit scary. You know we're getting down to crunch time when Canada opens the door to contributing towards the EU.


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

newbie said:


> ...oil will hit the roof.
> i am going to work with my bike if that happens.
> stocks will tank and so on and so forth.


We are looking forward to your contribution over on the 2012 Predictions thread.
2012 Predictions


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

newbie said:


> how about u prove to me otherwise about charts , specially atm.
> we can start a thread anytime my friend.
> .


I am sure if you search, there is already a thread. Discussing this issue is about as useful as arguing the abortion issue. No matter how concrete the arguments, no one ever changes their minds.

That's fine. I am sure the deficiencies in charting are no more numerous then the deficiencies in any other methods. I just wanted to point out that charting has too many deficiencies to be worthwhile, but that is my opinion.

Good luck to you.


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

OptsyEagle said:


> I am sure if you search, there is already a thread. Discussing this issue is about as useful as arguing the abortion issue. No matter how concrete the arguments, no one ever changes their minds.
> 
> That's fine. I am sure the deficiencies in charting are no more numerous then the deficiencies in any other methods. I just wanted to point out that charting has too many deficiencies to be worthwhile, but that is my opinion.
> 
> Good luck to you.


optys
i am not creating a clash here brother
this is not a who knows more contest.
charting does have a lot of defficiencies sure but there is a trade range, and right now it is very clear.
as per individual stocks it can work quite a bit also but u have to look at specifics of the stocks u trade right?
for daytrading anything with large volume can be done
i am being very explicit about major indexes specially atm.
also jmo


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

If you guys have a good debate I am all for it because it helps us all to learn.

Keeping an open mind which most on the forum do not have and i am also struggling with is good to have. Never discount anyone unless you have sufficient evidence to do so. Or if you are not sure then question them but keep an open mind.

After saying this does anyone see a future end to the debt debacle. Right now there is nothing to hang our hat on so this is the cash debate. The other debate suggests that we have seen the worst are experiencing the worst but are not discounting that a better future is on the horizon.


----------



## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

just curious here as I go to bed an my lil ones are dreaming of sugar plums and santa claus... 

how many of you doom-dayers are in cash or in gold? 

I would expect that if you are expecting the end to come (...as some of you are) you are in cash or in gold? me....I think that we are in for a long period of low growth. stay well diversified - buy good companies at excellent (read low) prices - rinse and repeat!

and..by the way - I sense that many of you CMF'ers are wonderful people. (...many of you have helped me with some financial questions and concerns that I may well have paid good money to recieve). we have much to be grateful for. what ever happens out there in the world - this is the best place to be. 

Have a wonderful Christmas - all.


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> If you guys have a good debate I am all for it because it helps us all to learn.
> 
> Keeping an open mind which most on the forum do not have and i am also struggling with is good to have. Never discount anyone unless you have sufficient evidence to do so. Or if you are not sure then question them but keep an open mind.
> 
> After saying this does anyone see a future end to the debt debacle. Right now there is nothing to hang our hat on so this is the cash debate. The other debate suggests that we have seen the worst are experiencing the worst but are not discounting that a better future is on the horizon.


a good debate deffinitely helps us all dog.
no i do not see an end to europes debt situation.
nevertheless an intense injection of liquidity has just been initiated in europe .
that is and i say again their QE.
iam 50% cash right now.
i see gold in the long run going lower since i see deflation emerging and europe is already in recession.
that will not happen if qe3 is announced by the fed which is inflatonary and gold will benefit from it as well as commodities which in turn will lift the commoditties equities and that is why i am short defensive stocks that hit their 52 week highs.
china will slow down.
dollar may see high 80's and the euro low 1.2.
italian bonds selling at 7% range is a demise and someone somewhere will default.
some few somewhere will lose their triple a status and costs of borrowing will rise.
europe cannot print money like the US and therefore the ECB reluctance.
all we have seen so far is short covering on equities.
volume is ludicrous south of the border and canadian stocks are not immune.
in 10 years the mkts went nowhere and if u did not trade along the way u lost money through depreciation.
i am a doom and gloom guy for the first quarter , and i could be wrong but that is what i see from this desk.
iwont touch american banks with a ten foot pole since no one can bet on banks that do not disclose their european exposure.
that is all happy holydays
i will rephrase , all the moves we have seen so far on indexes are technical and not realistic at all.


----------



## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

OptsyEagle said:


> We have to be nearing a bottom when posts are starting to talk about the end game and hourdes of zombies.
> 
> Listen. You need to shake your head a little from all this doom and gloom and look around you. What do I see?
> .


Just to be clear, I am with you. I have put ~100K into the market in the last 6 months or so. I was just taking other people's talk to its logical conclusion - if you believe the end is coming you need to be out of the cities.

hboy43


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

I love to debate things like technical analysis, unfortuneately the proving of it's merits or lack there of, is the problem. It is a little like proving that there is no god. I am positive there is not, but if it could be proved, we all would be positive of it. TA is not that much different, so we all have to own our opinions and as was said, perhaps keep an open mind. On TA, I have opened it enough times with very little change, but the future is not over.

As for the the future of the world. I have no more insight then anyone else on this board or elsewhere. My convictions always seem to come back to humanities successful ability to deal with adversity. Add to that, my experience that, even if more and bigger problems arise, holding cash or gold or any other investment will not help you much, because you will most likely need to get back into the stock market at some point in time. In there lies the problem. When the stock market starts it's unrelenting advance from the troughs of the problems we are currently in, the problems we discuss will still be around. History actually shows, that when the upturn takes place, the problems will most likely be as ugly as they will ever get. By the time the average person feels comfortable with this, 40% to 70% of the gains with have been posted.

So the problem for me is, if I am unwilling to invest in the stock market when big ugly problems are around, why should I assume I would be willing to invest in the stock market when the problems are even uglyer.

As for the problems themselves, they are nasty but I don't believe them to be insurmountable. What the European nations need, is more time. Yes, less debt would be nice and easier politics would help, but if they can get more time, they can perhaps reduce a lot of the negatives that will go along with the changes that will need to take place. 

In any event, whether the problems are fixed in 8 weeks or 8 years, timing this thing will be fruitless for all but the lucky. Holding cash just moves ones fears from "losing money in the stock market" to the fears of "does it make sense now to re-invest the cash I have in some other, much more expensive asset, other then stocks" (for example bonds, cash, gold, real estate and pretty much any other asset then stocks).

That is perhaps why I seem to see the good news before I focus on the bad news. I don't see much other choice.


----------



## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

After going through my various accounts, I currently have about 220k in cash available for investment. Can't pull the trigger because I have no feel whatsoever for what may happen in 2012. I would rather miss out on some gains than to suffer massive losses... I don't mind sitting on cash at all. Especially since my wife and I continue to save about 4k per month with the best money making scheme going - living below one's means.


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

Jon_Snow said:


> I would rather miss out on some gains than to suffer massive losses...


I know that may feel better, but what most people miss is that mathematically, those two outcomes are the same thing. 

The question then is, which outcome will provide you with more money when the fat lady start singing, and it is my opinion that being invested will provide more, then the market timing that goes along with holding cash, will.

That of course, is just my opinion, and I agree the cost for this, is some lost sleep.


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

OptsyEagle said:


> I know that may feel better, but what most people miss is that mathematically, those two outcomes are the same thing.
> 
> The question then is, which outcome will provide you with more money when the fat lady start singing, and it is my opinion that being invested will provide more, then the market timing that goes along with holding cash, will.
> 
> That of course, is just my opinion, and I agree the cost for this, is some lost sleep.





Jon_Snow said:


> After going through my various accounts, I currently have about 220k in cash available for investment. Can't pull the trigger because I have no feel whatsoever for what may happen in 2012. I would rather miss out on some gains than to suffer massive losses... I don't mind sitting on cash at all. Especially since my wife and I continue to save about 4k per month with the best money making scheme going - living below one's means.


treasuries in the beggining of the year were the dogs.
at years end a massive return.
like i said optys equities are the dogs now and maybe u r right.
following TA is just like being a contrarian to ur thoughts.
nothing wrong with staying invested but if i was to stay invested i would hold high yield divy stocks.
that would be my only startegy to weather harmfull events in a volatile mkt.
as for me and i am sure many others , volatilty moves mkts and if ur capable and have the stomach to trade this environmet u make money.
i just posted about CWB , what can u tell me is wrong that support for now is 24 bux area as an example?
unless u think it will breakout above 29.98 , two double tops.
or break below 24 leading to 20 bux.
it bounced back twice from those levels in past 3 months.
therefore Ta can help.
again JMO with facts not just talk 
oh and yes i have to have cash. cash is also part of a portfolio, or is it not?

since u mentioned the holy one , just for the merit of speech , i do believe in him and faith is something that comes from inside and not outside


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

newbie said:


> JMO with facts not just talk
> oh and yes i have to have cash. cash is also part of a portfolio, or is it not?
> 
> since u mentioned the holy one , just for the merit of speech , i do believe in him and faith is something that comes from inside and not outside


Those are not facts to prove TA, but simply observations of past events. As for cash. Cash for portfolio management, as you are using it is fine, cash because one believes stocks will go down and they will get in at better prices, is market timing and good luck with that.


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I do happen to believe in the future that one will do much better finding and using simple TA setups along with finding good companies with low debt and lots of cash. I believe simple TA can be as easy to see as a company with low debt, low PE or whatever one wants to use.

On the world debt front one should have cash available for the bargains that will come from the turmoil to retire it. Being all in in my opinion is very dangerous with the demographic and debt situation that is out there. You see in past recessions we had inventory problems and lots of room to lower rates when the Fed felt the economy slowed enough, we do not have that luxury today.


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

OptsyEagle said:


> Those are not facts to prove TA, but simply observations of past events. As for cash. Cash for portfolio management, as you are using it is fine, cash because one believes stocks will go down and they will get in at better prices, is market timing and good luck with that.


short term observations
anyway optis .
i am not a long term trader , i am a short term trader .
u say u have 25 years of trading experience and i respect that but to believe that technicals have no relevance whatsoever is a little bit too much imo.
i really hope u did well past year .
for the short time that i have been trading i think i am ok.
if u think the american economy is improving , i think otherwise .
i think china will have a hard landing and i think europe will be a mess this year.
sovereign debt may possibly be worse than the lehmann brothers event.
if u think american stocks are cheap look at china , do u think they are cheap?
i do , but i dont buy stocks because they are cheap cuz they can get cheaper .
GL to u also
do u minmd if i ask u a question when is it that u take profits on ur trades?
i mean one has to take some profits if they r up , otherwise all ur doing is watch ur account change dollar figures.
just curious

just to finalize my thoughts we r living a stagflation scenario atm


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

newbie said:


> do u minmd if i ask u a question when is it that u take profits on ur trades?
> i mean one has to take some profits if they r up , otherwise all ur doing is watch ur account change dollar figures.
> just curious


And again we disagree. In my opinion, there is no such thing as taking profits, if your intent is to re-invest the proceeds of a particular sale into another investment. In this scenerio, where exactly did one take their profits?

If you buy a stock at $5 and watch it go to $10 and sell it. Then you buy another stock at $20 and watch it go to $10, how was that profitable? Or you buy another stock at $10 and watch it go to $15, but notice the stock you sold at $10 is now $20. Again, the last trade I mentioned may feel good, but it was not good.

So to answer your question, I sell a stock when I believe that it is at around 90% of its fundamental value, or when I find another stock I would like to buy, that has a better risk/reward scenerio then the one that I am selling.

In down markets, none of the above helps very much, but it feels a lot more tangable to me then using a bunch of charts that are right "most" of the time, but just never when I really needed it, it seems.

Each to their own, I suppose.


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

OptsyEagle said:


> And again we disagree. In my opinion, there is no such thing as taking profits, if your intent is to re-invest the proceeds of a particular sale into another investment. In this scenerio, where exactly did one take their profits?
> 
> If you buy a stock at $5 and watch it go to $10 and sell it. Then you buy another stock at $20 and watch it go to $10, how was that profitable? Or you buy another stock at $10 and watch it go to $15, but notice the stock you sold at $10 is now $20. Again, the last trade I mentioned may feel good, but it was not good.
> 
> ...


u believe in retracements of same stock right?
u just said above.
nothing goes up or down in a staright line.
that is all i am talking about .
i fully believe in fundamentals, P/E, P/B .. etcc...
i am talking now that the mkt is trading mostly on sentiment and news not fundamentals the charts serve me right.
and techies do use them.
in ur 25 years of experience u have to at some point have used charts
happy holidays


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

dogcom said:


> On the world debt front one should have cash available for the bargains that will come from the turmoil to retire it. Being all in in my opinion is very dangerous with the demographic and debt situation that is out there. You see in past recessions we had inventory problems and lots of room to lower rates when the Fed felt the economy slowed enough, we do not have that luxury today.


i agree, unless one is desperate for yield, having money in cash (you can get 2% in a hisa which is excellent compared to what is available in the usa) is a very smart thing right now ... the opportunity advantage that having cash presents is very big and outweighs loss of yield or upward movement ... it's hard to just sit on cash but often can be worth it


----------



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Your one of the few that see the opportunities cash holds in the next year or so. I believe we should see a good rally in January probably on some good news out of Europe only to have the rug pulled out at some point to trap the bulls.

Newbie is also correct that we are in a news and technical market at this time because everyone is looking to make fast money and they do not trust the market. This is why we will get a lot of volatility scorching the bulls and the bears unless you are able trade the market.

I think now is the time to be buying bargains as Optsyeagle mentions but not by going all in or on margin. Investors not wanting to trade should be averaging in so if the market does crash or go far down they will be able to take advantage of this because the threat out there is very real and should be respected for what it is. This debt mess is not noise or a wall of worry but instead threatens to bring down many banks and fiat currencies with it. A wall of worry are things like to much inventory and wondering how we will get through it or threats of war causing panic selling or buying. This new worry will be rectified but nothing is being done yet to deal with it.


----------



## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

newbie;102346Iin ur 25 years of experience u have to at some point have used charts
happy holidays:)[/QUOTE said:


> It must be 29 years since I bought my first stock and I have never used a technical chart.
> 
> Regards
> 
> hboy43


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Your one of the few that see the opportunities cash holds in the next year or so. I believe we should see a good rally in January probably on some good news out of Europe only to have the rug pulled out at some point to trap the bulls.
> 
> Newbie is also correct that we are in a news and technical market at this time because everyone is looking to make fast money and they do not trust the market. This is why we will get a lot of volatility scorching the bulls and the bears unless you are able trade the market.
> 
> I think now is the time to be buying bargains as Optsyeagle mentions but not by going all in or on margin. Investors not wanting to trade should be averaging in so if the market does crash or go far down they will be able to take advantage of this because the threat out there is very real and should be respected for what it is. This debt mess is not noise or a wall of worry but instead threatens to bring down many banks and fiat currencies with it. A wall of worry are things like to much inventory and wondering how we will get through it or threats of war causing panic selling or buying. This new worry will be rectified but nothing is being done yet to deal with it.


u could not have summarized my oppinion in a better way . actually optis also.
volatility will be rampant . risk on risk off.
tighten ur seat belts.
FCX , X and many other exceptional companies are bargains.
i saw PCX drop 20 % in 3 days and climb 20% in one day .
solid company .
the list goes on and on


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

hboy43 said:


> It must be 29 years since I bought my first stock and I have never used a technical chart.
> 
> Regards
> 
> hboy43


so since u have 29 years of experience in trading would u kindly share ur method .
i am curious


----------



## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

newbie said:


> so since u have 29 years of experience in trading would u kindly share ur method .
> i am curious


I don't trade, I invest. What I do is on this site, search my ID if you are interested.

Regards

hboy43


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

hboy43 said:


> I don't trade, I invest. What I do is on this site, search my ID if you are interested.
> 
> Regards
> 
> hboy43


will do
happy new year


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

As an investor rather than a trader, with only two trading days left, I am starting to lose all hope of ending the year in positive territory!!

Oh well, as the Leaf fans are prone to saying, "maybe NEXT year"??

Or, more likely, maybe the next decade.


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

Belguy said:


> As an investor rather than a trader, with only two trading days left, I am starting to lose all hope of ending the year in positive territory!!
> 
> Oh well, as the Leaf fans are prone to saying, "maybe NEXT year"??
> 
> Or, more likely, maybe the next decade.


well
lets put it that way 
tomorrow italy sells bonds at a possible 7 % range.
how can one be positive in such realm of doom?
then we have another country , spain, and another one portugal, forget about greece they r bankrupt.
and watch unemployment numbers next quarter i think we topped the low range and from here we go higher in the unemployment range
happy holydays


----------



## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Belguy said:


> As an investor rather than a trader, with only two trading days left, I am starting to lose all hope of ending the year in positive territory!!


As an investor, you should not care. I was pretty sure mid summer the year would not end in the black. I did however add to and start positions in a variety of holdings at lowish prices: RY, ECA, MX, NBD, SU, RUS, POW, BBD.B. Early in the year I trimmed at highish prices: SU, CM.

A reasonably productive year, mostly on the buy side, That's life. Some time it will be a reasonably productive year on the sell side, just don't know when. Until then, I continue to collect the dividends and buy as the prices look reasonable. The annual net cash return, that is dividends less margin interest, is up about $2K.

hboy43


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

hboy43 said:


> As an investor, you should not care. I was pretty sure mid summer the year would not end in the black. I did however add to and start positions in a variety of holdings at lowish prices: RY, ECA, MX, NBD, SU, RUS, POW, BBD.B. Early in the year I trimmed at highish prices: SU, CM.
> 
> A reasonably productive year, mostly on the buy side, That's life. Some time it will be a reasonably productive year on the sell side, just don't know when. Until then, I continue to collect the dividends and buy as the prices look reasonable. The annual net cash return, that is dividends less margin interest, is up about $2K.
> 
> hboy43


sorry to ask H 
ur net profit is 2k dollars?
am i understanding it right?


----------



## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

newbie said:


> sorry to ask H
> ur net profit is 2k dollars?
> am i understanding it right?


No, projected dividends less margin interest for 2012 $29K vs $27K 2011. My net worth is of course down on the year about 10% give or take.

hboy43


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

hboy43 said:


> No, projected dividends less margin interest for 2012 $29K vs $27K 2011. My net worth is of course down on the year about 10% give or take.
> 
> hboy43


well still not bad at all H 
happy new year


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The economy "has cancer, not a cold":

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...brings-ghosts-of-2008-to-mind/article2287940/

McDonalds biggest Dow winner in 2011--Bank of America biggest loser:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/30/markets/biggest_losers_winners/?hpt=hp_t1


----------



## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

Belguy said:


> The economy "has cancer, not a cold":
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...brings-ghosts-of-2008-to-mind/article2287940/
> 
> ...


ha
let me add this article (from august/ 11)
to ur articles

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/08/11/is-the-economy-worse-off-than-in-2008/

question now is is QE3 the last bullet?
i am not an economist, maybe we have economists on the board?
i think that Keynesian mkts are bound to go down since capital inflow does not come from prosperity but by injecting liquidity in the mkt.
u just kick the can further down the road
buffet most likely will weather out his bac purchase with his divys gains.
i am sure he will be fine lol, nonetheless i expect at least one country aside from greece to default and im 99% sure that the first nation to be be downgraded in 2012 will be Japan, just a hunch....
happy New year


----------



## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

hboy43 said:


> No, projected dividends less margin interest for 2012 $29K vs $27K 2011. My net worth is of course down on the year about 10% give or take.
> 
> hboy43


I see the tsx was approx 11600 dec 30,2009 which is similar to today's level.

you would think our stock portfolio net worth would be about the same now as it was then.

But when i look at my numbers, I am 30% higher on both main accounts.
(that includes deposits but i can't see my deposits totalling over 5% for a year.)

I wonder if that is compound interest at work.


----------



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Adios, 2011!!

And good riddance!!!


----------

