# Is Suncor a Sure Thing at $26.00 ?



## dogleg

It was at $47. not long ago then dropped to $40. Looked good to me at $40. so I bought some, then came Armageddon and now its around $26. It looks almost irresistible. It has a 200 day moving average of about $39. It has YOY quarterly earnings growth of about 4.1% and a market cap of about $40B. However, things have changed. Any opinions ? Thanks.


----------



## KaeJS

Is it a sure thing over a day, week, month, rest of the year? No.

Is it a sure thing if you've got a year or more to invest? Yes, IMO.

I have been trying hard not to buy any. But it is definitely attractive. Starting to look like a 135lb, 5"10 Brunette.


----------



## dogleg

KaeJS: You didn't specify her age but I think you sold me . Nothing like averaging down !


----------



## larry81

I am pondering the idea of buying a concentrated position...


----------



## Argonaut

Best way to play the oil sands is with the pipelines. You don't even have to think. You don't even have to guess when the best price is. 
Conservative estimate 10-12% annual return.


----------



## daddybigbucks

im looking to trade some Cenovus for Suncor this week. 
Just working off market numbers, CVE is down 5% in the last 3 months while SU is down 28%.


----------



## Kim

OK KaeJS I have never thought of stocks that way. I can't think of one stock what reminds me of Clive Owen or Daniel Craig.  

Suncor in my recreational opinion is a good one and on my list.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Kim said:


> I can't think of one stock what reminds me of Clive Owen or Daniel Craig.
> 
> Suncor in my recreational opinion is a good one and on my list.


Lol Kim, neither can I [I adore Daniel Craig, been crazy about him since I first laid eyes on him in the movie Munich].  

So now we know KaeJS likes brunettes, no wonder he's smart, just kidding! 

I have been accumulating SU shares since 2009 and just last week averaged down again. I have no doubt the stock will quadruple [eventually].


----------



## larry81

I am in 3760 @26.60

6 month - 1 year


----------



## gibor365

larry81 said:


> I am in 3760 @26.60
> 
> 6 month - 1 year


just curious 3760 is nymber of shares or $ amount you spent?

P.S. I also added a little bit SU couple of day ago at 26.25
Nor sure about quadripeling  , but beleive that it will double in 2 -3 years


----------



## Kim

I thought it was 3760 shares making approx. 10K.


----------



## gibor365

Kim said:


> I thought it was 3760 shares making approx. 10K.


no, that it's making 100K


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> Nor sure about quadripeling  , but beleive that it will double in 2 -3 years


By quadrupling, I was't talking about 2 years, but longer term.


----------



## larry81

gibor said:


> just curious 3760 is nymber of shares or $ amount you spent?
> 
> P.S. I also added a little bit SU couple of day ago at 26.25
> Nor sure about quadripeling  , but beleive that it will double in 2 -3 years


3760 is the number of share.

Suncor at 26 hahahaha ! For anyone with a little patience and the stomach to handle the volatility... IT'S A STEAL !!!


----------



## Kim

whoops missed typing a zero, my mistake.


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> 3760 is the number of share.
> 
> Suncor at 26 hahahaha ! For anyone with a little patience and the stomach to handle the volatility... IT'S A STEAL !!!


damn homie...


----------



## avrex

wow!! 100,000 in a 'single' stock.


----------



## larry81

avrex said:


> wow!! 100,000 in a 'single' stock.


money was sitting in a 'HISA'.

At this price and with a mid/long term timeframe... its a joke


----------



## bobwatford123

larry81 said:


> money was sitting in a 'HISA'.
> 
> At this price and with a mid/long term timeframe... its a joke


Surprised you wouldn't have put it into more of a solid dividend payer then and get the best of both worlds


----------



## Toronto.gal

larry81 said:


> money was sitting in a 'HISA'.
> 
> At this price and with a mid/long term timeframe... its a joke


I have to agree, though in this market, I would have split that amount in at least 3 stocks.


----------



## jamesbe

Looks like a good buy, but I'm too heavily into energy right now and I'm taking a beating because of it  . But my theory is eventually it energy will go up... eventually... lol


----------



## larry81

Toronto.gal said:


> I have to agree, though in this market, I would have split that amount in at least 3 stocks.


I already have a large position in XDV + others ETF like XIC,VTI,VXUS...

SU is really just to spice the whole thing


----------



## Jungle

SU looking good after today.


----------



## Toronto.gal

In this market, my stomach is not as strong as yours Larry; I bought 1000 shares last week @ USD$25.61 and just sold 1/2 at USD$26.77 [my method is to keep a portion of oil shares forever, but also to book profits and get portion of my capital back].

Anyway, good luck to you, but you probably won't need it on this one!


----------



## larry81

Jungle said:


> SU looking good after today.


wow +5%


----------



## Toronto.gal

I just noticed that I sold at today's highest price [pure luck], but after market hours, it went down -3.05%, so I might be able to pick up another 500 shares tomorrow at same or lower price than I did last week. Who said market timing does not work? 

Oh, it's on the + side again; moving like crazy in after hours trading.


----------



## larry81

Toronto.gal said:


> I just noticed that I sold at today's highest price [pure luck], but after market hours, it went down -3.05%, so I might be able to pick up another 500 shares tomorrow at same or lower price than I did last week. Who said market timing does not work?
> 
> Oh, it's on the + side again; moving like crazy in after hours trading.


Where do you follow pre/after market pricing, i usually rely on google finance.


----------



## larry81

Timely article !

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/09/26/this-oil-stock-looks-like-a-huge-bargain.aspx


----------



## blin10

Toronto.gal said:


> I just noticed that I sold at today's highest price [pure luck], but after market hours, it went down -3.05%, so I might be able to pick up another 500 shares tomorrow at same or lower price than I did last week. Who said market timing does not work?
> 
> Oh, it's on the + side again; moving like crazy in after hours trading.


when you see after market price dip that low after a run up, it's usually with few shares and you won't fill your order at that price... it usually corrects right away, unless there's earnings release or some sharp after market activity


----------



## gibor365

This Oil Stock Looks Like a Huge Bargain

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/09/26/this-oil-stock-looks-like-a-huge-bargain.aspx


----------



## dogleg

BTW do I get a cut for spotlighting this stock? Wasn't I the one who took the risk at $40. ?


----------



## gibor365

dogleg said:


> BTW do I get a cut for spotlighting this stock? Wasn't I the one who took the risk at $40. ?


I both first portion of SU for 41.80


----------



## marina628

I was thinking about it today but am I fool to think it will go even lower?


----------



## larry81

Financial post article from 23 sept:

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/09/23/energy-sector-to-rally-barring-massive-oil-decline/


----------



## larry81

Posting proof of the trade, so you can all make fun of me if this go down the drain:


----------



## avrex

Nice work, larry.
Your move has you beating your annual HISA interest rate with this stock, in a single day.


----------



## webber22

Last Thursday during the peak of the meltdown, in the 'what are you buying' thread I posted Suncor as a buy, in between the dozens of Belguy panic posts  .... ... 7% return in 3 days 



webber22 said:


> The two buy triggers signals I was waiting for arrived.
> 1. theGoldmanSachs was on the buy side of most orders on the TSX after 2pm
> 2. Belguy was posting a lot in the 'disgusted' thread, he was almost on the verge of selling it ALL
> 
> Added to existing positions
> [email protected]
> [email protected]


p.s. Goldman was doing heavy buying in oil, gold, and bank stocks in the TSX after hour block trading today


----------



## larry81

webber22 said:


> Last Thursday during the peak of the meltdown, in the 'what are you buying' thread I posted Suncor as a buy, in between the dozens of Belguy panic posts  .... ... 7% return in 3 days
> 
> p.s. Goldman was doing heavy buying in oil, gold, and bank stocks in the TSX after hour block trading today


Good call 

Some people will look back at the last few weeks and wonder how come they missed x, y, z opportunity... Then, they will delay stocks purchase's, waiting for the 'next opportunity...and when another 20% dip finally come, they will say blablabla end of the world blablabla double dip yadada and wish they were in gic/hisa.

_'Buy When There's Blood In The Streets'_


----------



## KaeJS

Wow.

Thanks larry... I feel so much poorer now that I know you put 2x my entire net worth into Suncor.... 



Good job, though!


----------



## bobwatford123

larry81 said:


> posting proof of the trade, so you can all make fun of me if this go down the drain:


nice !!!!


----------



## webber22

Good trade Larry. How long are you going to keep it? 

>/market timing
With quarter-end coming up on Friday, with GS loading up on it today, with the oil price climbing in after hours trading, if you're going to unload it - Friday morning would be the time. 
</ market timing


----------



## marina628

Larry is a baller , he should come to Vegas with me on Sunday lol


----------



## larry81

> imho, aluminium producers nasdaq:cenx and nyse:nor would have been good short-term play too...


nasdaq:cenx +10% ... :|


----------



## Jungle

I hope the stock market crashes because I want to buy some!!!


----------



## dogleg

Larry: I never declare my cards in a poker game or how much stock I buy - it is an omen for bad luck. But what's a hundred thousand? Not to rain on a parade but the dividend doesn't match the fundamentals in my view so buyer beware is the advice I give myself with SU. Anyway I'm not selling at the moment. Cheers.


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> Larry: I never declare my cards in a poker game or how much stock I buy - it is an omen for bad luck. But what's a hundred thousand? Not to rain on a parade but the dividend doesn't match the fundamentals in my view so buyer beware is the advice I give myself with SU. Anyway I'm not selling at the moment. Cheers.


I am not sure I understand your comment regarding dividend vs fundamentals. Thus is the same company that you bough at 40 couple months ago, the stock is just in the bargain bin at the moment.

Anyway, as far as we all know, this could crash to 22 tommorow. Risk is a synonym of return and i can live with that.

ps: I dont really believe in bad/good luck


----------



## OhGreatGuru

Not to gloat, but my wife's ACB for Suncor is $13.29/share.

To answer OP's question, nothing is a "sure thing" in the stock market. But I would think $26 is a good price. The state of the US economy and the controversy over the Keystone XL project have depressed Oil Sands stocks, but my bet is that should be temporary.


----------



## larry81

OhGreatGuru said:


> Not to gloat, but my wife's ACB for Suncor is $13.29/share.


yummy yummy !


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> Good call
> 
> Some people will look back at the last few weeks and wonder how come they missed x, y, z opportunity... Then, they will delay stocks purchase's, waiting for the 'next opportunity...and when another 20% dip finally come, they will say blablabla end of the world blablabla double dip yadada and wish they were in gic/hisa.
> 
> _'Buy When There's Blood In The Streets'_


i'm slowly loading up as well, but you want to see what will happens to euro zone and Greece (Greece should default) before dumping that kind of money in one shot


----------



## dogleg

Well, the question that haunts me is why has Suncor been hammered so hard as compared to others . And for a $40 B market cap company the dividend history has been 'thin' in my view. When I bought at $40. it looked like oil was on its way to $120. and SU had just come off $47. So, as always there are plenty of variables to consider. Anyway I wish you (and me) well.


----------



## Jungle

What is the difference between IMO and SU ? IMO has a better p/e right now.


----------



## dogleg

Jungle: You ask a good question. As I mentioned earlier IMO didn't experience the dramatic drop in share value that SU did. There has to be a reason for that and it worries me .


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> Jungle: You ask a good question. As I mentioned earlier IMO didn't experience the dramatic drop in share value that SU did. There has to be a reason for that and it worries me .


IMHO, SU volume attract HFT and algorithmic trading bot's. This kind of trading amplify the down's... and the up's !


----------



## HaroldCrump

dogleg said:


> As I mentioned earlier IMO didn't experience the dramatic drop in share value that SU did. There has to be a reason for that and it worries me .


Yes, you should look into it.
I don't buy a beaten down stock without first trying to understand the reasons behind it, else it could just be a value trap.
I don't follow or hold SU but I believe they have/had assets in Libya and they stopped production since the uprising.
That may explain part of it, but obviously not all of it, since it's probably not a big part of their production capacity.


----------



## webber22

News came out today that Suncor is starting up production in Libya within a few weeks.


----------



## HaroldCrump

I also see that day before yesterday, they initiated a share buyback.
That is probably also helping prop up the price.


----------



## larry81

Crude up +5% after market !


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Crude up +5% after market !


Wooo!


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Wooo!


Welcome to the party KaeJS.

Its going through the roof or... down the drain


----------



## bobwatford123

Where are you seeing crude up 5% after the market (another $4.50)? Edit...I think my data may be flawed...


----------



## larry81

bobwatford123 said:


> Where are you seeing crude up 5% after the market (another $4.50)? Edit...I think my data may be flawed...


It is now trading near flat...

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/


----------



## dogleg

From opening bell to 1:00PM SU has traded about 2.6 million shares and dropped about 2.3% while IMO has traded only about 200K shares and dropped about 1.8%. About a 13 to 1 ratio in volume ! Interesting and deserves caution I believe.


----------



## Jungle

Tried a bid before the close but it didn't fill.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle, did you leave it as GTC?

It will more than likely get filled tomorrow if you did.


----------



## Jungle

It was day, not GTC. Order was not filled: limit price not met. (was under 27)


----------



## Kim

Would you be so kind as to explicate on why the difference in volumes btwn these two stocks is reason for caution. 

Thanks


----------



## dogleg

Kim: When I see two similar stocks with about the same capitalization and one is heavily traded and the other is not there have to be reasons for it. Granted SU dropped much lower and may seem like a no-brainer buy but there remains the question why did it get hammered so badly as compared to IMO . As usual there are always plenty of variables to consider . Cheers.


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> Kim: When I see two similar stocks with about the same capitalization and one is heavily traded and the other is not there have to be reasons for it. Granted SU dropped much lower and may seem like a no-brainer buy but there remains the question why did it get hammered so badly as compared to IMO . As usual there are always plenty of variables to consider . Cheers.


IMHO, HFT bots at work...


----------



## dogleg

Larry: I agree computer-generated, interval trading can generate a lot of volume even a lot of 'ghost trading' ,however, it doesn't explain preference.


----------



## ddkay

I don't see what you guys are talking about 

There was more volume yesterday and I didn't see anyone calling that computer generated. Only when it goes down right?


----------



## larry81

I am not concerned about volume at all... unless it drop to <500k


----------



## Jungle

Been watching this very close.. waiting for it to drop.


----------



## larry81

Jungle said:


> Been watching this very close.. waiting for it to drop.


Low 27 is a good entry point imho, the 200 MA is ~30...

IF and only IF you dont need the money short term.


----------



## dogleg

I,m not telling you not to buy it -I am heavily invested in it . However give some thought to the dynamics of it right now. Its 200 day MA was $38.82 just a few days back . Consider the high volume of shares traded and what the SP is doing : Obviously there are many owners who are giving up their shares. Kind of a puzzle I would say when you compare it to IMO. Cheers.


----------



## larry81

Good god, you are right the 200 MA is not 30 but 38 !


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> I,m not telling you not to buy it -I am heavily invested in it . However give some thought to the dynamics of it right now. Its 200 day MA was $38.82 just a few days back . Consider the high volume of shares traded and what the SP is doing : Obviously there are many owners who are giving up their shares. Kind of a puzzle I would say when you compare it to IMO. Cheers.


Also remember that SU is retail investor darling. Since the end of Q3 is coming, a lot of them need to sell holdings to meet panicked investors redemption request.


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Also remember that SU is retail investor darling. Since the end of Q3 is coming, a lot of them need to sell holdings to meet panicked investors redemption request.


^ This.


----------



## larry81

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/29/massive-pipeline-project-pits-unions-vs-conservationists/


----------



## Jungle

larry81 said:


> I am in 3760 @26.60
> 
> 6 month - 1 year


Hovering around this price now. I think I might wait untill we see a $25 position. This stock is volitile as is oil. 

I don't see any positive moves to make the markets go up in the next little while.


----------



## larry81

Jungle said:


> Hovering around this price now. I think I might wait untill we see a $25 position. This stock is volitile as is oil.
> 
> I don't see any positive moves to make the markets go up in the next little while.


I am staying in.

Market bottom are impossible to predict.



> The S&P 500 for the July-to-September period lost 12 percent heading into Friday's trading, which saw the market add to its losses. History, then, suggests that the following quarter will post a gain of 7.2 percent. The trend has held up eight out of nine times.


source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44732020


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> I am staying in.
> 
> Market bottom are impossible to predict.


Also staying in and I bought in the $28 range.

Will add if it hits $20, if it doesnt hit $20, then i'll just hold forever so long as the company is still profitable and doesnt make any mistakes.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Also staying in and I bought in the $28 range.
> 
> Will add if it hits $20, if it doesnt hit $20, then i'll just hold forever so long as the company is still profitable and doesnt make any mistakes.


Since i am heavily invested in SU, i will not add if it reach 20$ but i certainly look for others bargain  Some very good stocks at PE ~10 at the moment... many companies have started share buyback program, even Mr value himself (Buffet) is buying right now 

In the grand scheme of things, who give a **** about Greece ? its 0.03% of the world frigging GDP !

End of the world for some, business opportunity for others


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> Since i am heavily invested in SU, i will not add if it reach 20$ but i certainly look for others bargain  Some very good stocks at PE ~10 at the moment... many companies have started share buyback program, even Mr value himself (Buffet) is buying right now
> 
> In the grand scheme of things, who give a **** about Greece ? its 0.03% of the world frigging GDP !
> 
> End of the world for some, business opportunity for others


who gives a **** about Greece? how about a lot of strong European countries (they don't got unlimited dollar printer like US) who pumped billions of dollars into it, even US? after Greece it can all fall down like a domino, Spain, Portugal, Italy then who knows who else... PE don't mean anything in a bear market, everything will be shorted... price of oil is all based on big boys speculation, it can easily sink to $50 even if there is not enough oil and demand is high, it's all pure speculation... and who cares about Buffet, that dude got rich from a pure stock run up from early 90's, if he would of started in 2000's he'd be broke with his buying moves, the only reason he is beating markets right now is because he got unlimited money supply of billions he made in golden days with almost no volatility


----------



## PMREdmonton

blin10 said:


> who gives a **** about Greece? how about a lot of strong European countries (they don't got unlimited dollar printer like US) who pumped billions of dollars into it, even US? after Greece it can all fall down like a domino, Spain, Portugal, Italy then who knows who else... PE don't mean anything in a bear market, everything will be shorted... price of oil is all based on big boys speculation, it can easily sink to $50 even if there is not enough oil and demand is high, it's all pure speculation... and who cares about Buffet, that dude got rich from a pure stock run up from early 90's, if he would of started in 2000's he'd be broke with his buying moves, the only reason he is beating markets right now is because he got unlimited money supply of billions he made in golden days with almost no volatility


Buffet has about a 45-year track record of success.

I know he thinks he could earn 30-50% per year if BRK were not so large but he can't play the small cap market anymore as it makes too little of a difference now.

He had to change his business practice as he got larger. When he wants to buy a stock, he will move the market to the upside because of impact effect. So now he knows it is just better to buy companies outright who have a moat and longstanding history of good corporate governance and efficiency.

I often think it is just best to join BRK. He will find an appropriate successor for himself that he can groom before he leaves. The culture is pretty ingrained over there. I would be much more leery of whether Apple can innovate without Jobs as that requires more creativity/art/aesthetic skills. Their P/B is exceptionally low and their book value is probably markedly underestimated so I think once they get back to a more appropriate valuation there is 70% upside to the stock from present levels (i.e. BRK.B selling at 120).


----------



## larry81

Boom !!!


----------



## Cal

larry, what are you current intentions w the SU dividend, are you planning on DRIPping it, or will you deploy it elsewhere?

Also would it make a difference it the share price rises or falls for you?


----------



## Jungle

[email protected]


----------



## larry81

Cal said:


> larry, what are you current intentions w the SU dividend, are you planning on DRIPping it, or will you deploy it elsewhere?
> 
> Also would it make a difference it the share price rises or falls for you?


The SU position is in a non-registered account. For accounting reason, i dont DRIP in my non-reg. I will simply add the DRIP amount to my next purchase (probably in one of the ETF i hold)

Price up/down make no difference for me, I am prepared to hold for the mid-long term. The current market is irrational, there a lot of bargain with ~8-10 PE at the moment.


----------



## larry81

SU upgraded to Overweight/Buy by Barclays.


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> SU upgraded to Overweight/Buy by Barclays.


they upgraded it while shorting it lol


----------



## dogcom

We really don't know for sure what irrational is larry81. If the world economy drops then there could still be a lot of downside. To me irrational is overloading and gambling on stocks at this time. To me adding positions with money in the bank for more opportunities 
if they come is rational.


----------



## ddkay

This market makes sense to me. It's heading lower before it heads higher.


----------



## larry81

dogcom said:


> We really don't know for sure what irrational is larry81. If the world economy drops then there could still be a lot of downside. To me irrational is overloading and gambling on stocks at this time. To me adding positions with money in the bank for more opportunities
> if they come is rational.


Make sure to ring the bell when the opportunities finally come in !

As I said in another thread, nobody can predict bottoms, the best approach is to buy when downside is limited and hang for the whole roller coaster.


----------



## dogcom

I should have been more clear. I agree now is the time to buy but I think one should keep money around to buy more if it goes down hard with the world going into a possible recession. What I don't think is a good idea is going all in and borrowing and so on at this time because there is just to much systemic risk around.


----------



## larry81

dogcom said:


> I should have been more clear. I agree now is the time to buy but I think one should keep money around to buy more if it goes down hard with the world going into a possible recession. What I don't think is a good idea is going all in and borrowing and so on at this time because there is just to much systemic risk around.


agree 100%, i am currently 50% cash just in in case the whole world goes down the drain.


----------



## dogcom

Thanks for clearing that up larry81 because I thought you had gone in with both feet and HELOC to the bank. SU is still in the hands of the sellers at this moment and that hasn't changed yet.


----------



## larry81

dogcom said:


> Thanks for clearing that up larry81 because I thought you had gone in with both feet and HELOC to the bank. SU is still in the hands of the sellers at this moment and that hasn't changed yet.


only a fool would invest with money he need in the short term, or worst, with a line of credit !


----------



## Belguy

Some are predicting a market rally in the fourth quarter--followed by a steep drop in the New Year!!

Interesting to look at my investment in XEG. It has essentially gone nowhere over the past three years. I wonder what the next three years will bring!!


----------



## King Tut

It is clear to me now with Suncor at $24.39 that there is no 'sure thing' in the stock market.


----------



## larry81

King Tut said:


> It is clear to me now with Suncor at $24.39 that there is no 'sure thing' in the stock market.


The bargain bin !

I strongly believe that a position <30 will prove itself to be a great investment in the mid term.


----------



## hboy43

larry81 said:


> only a fool would invest with money he need in the short term, or worst, with a line of credit !


Greetings, from a fool.

hboy43


----------



## larry81

Back to 26.60 !


----------



## larry81

SU is going crazy... +8% as i speak

Congrats on everyone who loaded on last days low's


----------



## Toronto.gal

Thank you. 

But again, I sold 1/2. It does not yet make sense to buy/hold all [for me]. 

You put a lot of money into this single stock, but it does not mean that you could not profit [trade] a portion of it. The best of both worlds IMO, but you gotta have a little of that goldfinger touch.  At any rate, you should do ok. long term no matter what you do.


----------



## Jungle

Looks good today, but I did not buy $100,000 like Larry lol. More like $2500 lol


----------



## Toronto.gal

I only bought a 1/4 of what Larry did, but I made more than he did in 2 trades.  Anyway, timing the market is not for all.

You will have done well too Jungle [with patience].


----------



## larry81

I am having fun


----------



## KaeJS

I bet you are.

I am having fun and I bought in the 28's. You must be having a BLAST!


----------



## larry81

> Canadian oil giant Suncor said Thursday that new sanctions announced on Syria this week by Ottawa would not affect its gas project in the country in collaboration with the Damascus government.


http://www.google.com/hostednews/af...ocId=CNG.ac8dc14a15fb529705f8e710bc557bcf.141


----------



## dubmac

I'm having fun reading about how much fun you are all having


----------



## larry81

hohohoohho


----------



## Jungle

Up 4% on nyse.


----------



## Eder

Might be a good spot to take a few bucks off the table?


----------



## larry81

Eder said:


> Might be a good spot to take a few bucks off the table?


bah !


----------



## larry81

if i sell a portion, it will be to buy the mother of all underdog of the oil industry FST

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:FST


----------



## larry81

slowly but surely !


----------



## larry81

At this moment, i am up 10k on my initial position 

I bite my hand for not taking a similar position in MT... the steel behemoth !


----------



## Homerhomer

I sense a bit of a party atmoshpere in this corner ;-) enjoy it;-)


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Maybe you should change the title of this thread to "Larry gloats about his Suncor stock". 

(note hint of jealousy)


----------



## Toronto.gal

larry81 said:


> At this moment, i am up 10k on my initial position


Happy for you Larry. 

10% is a fantastic return in less than a month, however, don't let that entire profit evaporate! Think how many shares even a fraction of that profit could buy you *FOR FREE.* 

At first I regretted selling 1/2 my position [x2], but the returned capital + profit gave me an even greater return in another stock. Not telling you to sell, but you'll be sorry if those shares go down a buck or two. On the other hand, if you really wish to lock $100K in a single stock for several years, who knows, you might make a million before you know it!


----------



## larry81

Toronto.gal said:


> Happy for you Larry.
> 
> 10% is a fantastic return in less than a month, however, don't let that entire profit evaporate! Think how many shares even a fraction of that profit could buy you *FOR FREE.*
> 
> At first I regretted selling 1/2 my position [x2], but the returned capital + profit gave me an even greater return in another stock. Not telling you to sell, but you'll be sorry if those shares go down a buck or two. On the other hand, if you really wish to lock $100K in a single stock for several years, who knows, you might make a million before you know it!


My problem is, sell to purchase what ??? If euro fix itself and economy start roaring again, the energy (and materials!) sector is a sure bet. SU still have lot of room to go higher... unless everything go down the drain...again !


----------



## Toronto.gal

Your $100K investment could almost double and when it does, SU will have simply recovered to its prior 52 week high, so I would not consider that a profit for the company [only for you ofc]. 

Stay the course if you're having problems identifying stocks that could give you greater value using a % of the current profits. You know the saying about the 5% rule, well, I don't follow it either, but I have had enough scenarios where an investment that I firmly bought/held went down and not just by 10%, but by much more than that. 

I trade a % of my shares simply because the market is very volatile & I wish to preserve/protect/raise capital [but I still hold most of my stocks] & use the profits to buy free shares, so in the long run, if those free shares do well, would you be ahead of the game by having diversified or by having stayed with a single stock? You have to figure that one out for yourself. Follow your guts & brain!


----------



## larry81

>30.00 !


----------



## jamesbe

son-of-a.....

I was going to buy at $28  Do I buy now at $30?


----------



## larry81

jamesbe said:


> son-of-a.....
> 
> I was going to buy at $28  Do I buy now at $30?


depend of your time horizon, it you are prepared to hold for >6months i would say yes.

But, there other good deal around, look at MT !


----------



## larry81

hohoho !


----------



## jamesbe

5% today that's pretty awesome! I could have made 2% if I bought early today but I only have a couple of thousand, so it would have been a whole $40 lol


----------



## Jungle

larry81 said:


> hohoho !


Dear Santa:

This year I want, gold, silver (pure bullion, lol) cash (USD though..) and stock, but only of companies that will profit and grow! 

No coal for me or ylo.to


----------



## Jungle

Larry:

I just spoke with the taxman and he needs your capital gain tax asap, to pay the deficit. Also, I just got word that Tony Clement needs to raise some cash for all this Air Canada arbitration nonsense.


----------



## KaeJS

larry, all I have to say is congratulations to both of us, but more so to you.


----------



## Financial Cents

@KaeJS

Canadian banks look like Scarlett Johansson. Just my opinion of course


----------



## KaeJS

Financial Cents said:


> @KaeJS
> 
> Canadian banks look like Scarlett Johansson. Just my opinion of course


You have good taste.


----------



## larry81

With the euro confidence returning, it should be an interesting week for the market and for beaten down stock like SU !

Israel index is currently up 4% ! With asian market opening soon, i expect a rally 

SU @ 32-33 this week ? Its more likely than you think !


----------



## KaeJS

Let's hope so!


----------



## webber22

Is cheap energy on the way with this cold fusion device ? I'd like to get my hands on it....

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markgibbs/2011/10/17/hello-cheap-energy-hello-brave-new-world/


----------



## dogleg

Webber22: Well Rossi better find a way for the protons in his 'black box' to like each other more than they do while forcing tritium and deuterium together. Just another cold fusion hoax methinks.


----------



## larry81

Centrica, Suncor, Faroe Strike Oil in Norwegian North Sea
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...roe-strike-oil-in-norwegian-north-sea-2-.html


----------



## larry81

Anyone can tell me why there such a big difference in the price variation between NYSE:SU and TSE:SU ???

As fair as i know, with the CDN at near-parity with the USD, there no reason for TSE:SU to be up 0.20% while NYSE:SU is up 0.50%.

Just wondering


----------



## zylon

@ larry81

Whether C$ is at par with U$ isn't relevant on a daily basis. What matters is the rate of change in C$

If C$ is up 1/4% for the day, then SU.TO will gain less than SU

If C$ is down 1/4%, then SU.TO will gain more than SU

Watching the tickers minute by minute, there will be variations, but by end of day, the arbitrageurs usually settle the score.

charts


----------



## larry81

Make sense to me, thanks for the answer zylon !


----------



## larry81

UPDATE:Suncor's Libya JV To Load First Tanker After Output Resumed
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111021-714620.html


----------



## KaeJS

We shoulda bought more.


----------



## humble_pie

i don't know about this suncor claim. Commodity trader Vitol began shipping libyan oil out of the port of tubruq, aided by the rebels, in april 2011. That was 6 months ago.

ddkay has a big article about it. Don't even think of asking for the link. Ya'll know ddkay. It's somewhere in that volume of research that he posted up today ...


----------



## larry81

WTI Crude is now >80

HOHOHOH


----------



## Jungle

Larry you should start a Twitter account..


----------



## humble_pie

that's why his name is larry81

the vocab is 81 words.


----------



## larry81

humble_pie said:


> that's why his name is larry81
> 
> the vocab is 81 words.


English is not my first language 

i hope you like my comments anyway


----------



## larry81

Harper Sees Keystone Pipeline Prevailing
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...eline-prevailing-with-jobs-over-nebraska.html



> Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper says U.S. approval of Keystone XL, a proposed 1,661-mile pipeline from Alberta to Texas, is a “no brainer” because demand for oil and jobs will overwhelm opposition from Nebraska lawmakers.


----------



## Jungle

I know, I wanted to add positions to trp, but not at this price. I missed the dip in Aug, but managed to get enb @ 28.


----------



## Rommel

larry81 said:


> Harper Sees Keystone Pipeline Prevailing
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...eline-prevailing-with-jobs-over-nebraska.html


Absolutely, I used to work for TransCanada. Slightly off-topic but one of PM Harper's former top aides works for TransCanada, very nice lady too 

Keystone XL is certainly going to happen; not if, but when  I say the major hurdles clear up around 2013 (the year the next US President is sworn in) since regulatory stuff seems to stall in an election year 2012.

Just my 2 cents.


----------



## larry81

Oil just made a parabolic raise to 90 and SU is now at 31


----------



## Toronto.gal

Nearing $20K profit in a month Larry?! Not bad at all!


----------



## larry81

Toronto.gal said:


> Nearing $20K profit in a month Larry?! Not bad at all!


Yes, i am having fun  Will evaluate what i do at 35 !


----------



## KaeJS

Still so jealous... 

That's more than I've made at BMO so far


----------



## webber22

Credit Suisse has kept an Outperform rating  and $50 target price on Suncor Energy (SU.TO) ahead of its Q3 on Thursday, November 3rd


----------



## larry81

webber22 said:


> Credit Suisse has kept an Outperform rating  and $50 target price on Suncor Energy (SU.TO) ahead of its Q3 on Thursday, November 3rd


yes just read that, credit rating agency are mostly bullshit but i am bullish++ on SU !


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Still so jealous...
> 
> That's more than I've made at BMO so far


you work for BMO ?


----------



## Jon_Snow

Speaking of SU, bought 300 shares for my wife today. Missed the recent run-up of this stock, but thats par for the course for me.


----------



## webber22

After that Credit Suisse upgrade, just checked some data from last week, and guess who was bulk buying shares of Suncor .............. Credit Suisse Canada !! And in todays trading stats they were one of the largest sellers ...... now there's something for the Occupy Bay Street to feed on ...


----------



## larry81

Jon_Snow said:


> Speaking of SU, bought 300 shares for my wife today. Missed the recent run-up of this stock, but thats par for the course for me.


Welcome to the party !


----------



## ddkay

Where do you get those trading stats webber22?


----------



## webber22

TMX Datalinx (paid). You can see a part of it for free here where broker 072 is doing some big selling


----------



## ddkay

merci


----------



## ibex

This may e a silly question but must ask regardless. I have been an index investor and have just recently started investing in individual stocks. I have purchased 1250 shares of Su.to. at $24.01. My question is this, these stocks are held in an RRSP account, when do active investors sell there holdings if they believe they purchased them at a good price and believe the stock has a high upside? Thanks in advance.


----------



## larry81

ibex said:


> This may e a silly question but must ask regardless. I have been an index investor and have just recently started investing in individual stocks. I have purchased 1250 shares of Su.to. at $24.01. My question is this, these stocks are held in an RRSP account, when do active investors sell there holdings if they believe they purchased them at a good price and believe the stock has a high upside? Thanks in advance.


you sell them if you need the cash or if you think there a better business opportunity out there.

Major props for your 24$ entry !!!


----------



## doctrine

Really, you managed to buy within 4 cents of the 52 year low, specifically on the AM of 4 Oct? Call me skeptical...


----------



## ibex

Not really concerned with scepticism, more interested in investors who have been purchasing individual stocks and the reasons why they sold. Whether they were trying to raise cash or found a better opportunity. Secondly, I noticed Larry mentioned a decision point at $35. Would this be because that would be a personal choice for profit or hedging the bet in regards to upward stock price. Thanks again.


----------



## hboy43

ibex said:


> My question is this, these stocks are held in an RRSP account, when do active investors sell there holdings if they believe they purchased them at a good price and believe the stock has a high upside? Thanks in advance.


When it no longer has a high upside?

When it becomes too large a % of your portfolio?

When you wake up one morning and feel it is time?

You will have to figure this out for yourself as the one certainty in investing is that people don't agree on what is intelligent investing.

hboy43


----------



## KaeJS

Regardless, intelligent investing all comes down to reducing your risk and increasing your comfort level.

(Says the boy on margin).


----------



## webber22

I'm out at 31.40. The two trigger signals were met. Belguy in a happy mood, plus the US bots flooding the sell side.


----------



## larry81

webber22 said:


> I'm out at 31.40. The two trigger signals were met. Belguy in a happy mood, plus the US bots flooding the sell side.


Congrats on a nice trade


----------



## KaeJS

*Too Soon, Junior*



webber22 said:


> I'm out at 31.40. The two trigger signals were met. Belguy in a happy mood, plus the US bots flooding the sell side.


Too Soon, Junior:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odwnpFwuwF8


----------



## webber22

lol


----------



## Jungle

Wow IMO profit doubles. Will SU follow in 7 days?


----------



## larry81

Jungle said:


> Wow IMO profit doubles. Will SU follow in 7 days?


wowwwww, many oil producers reported record profits, hope SU will do the same

SU 40 by the end of the year ?


----------



## ddkay

$48


----------



## Jungle

Even Exxon top estimates, I hope the trend follows.


----------



## larry81

TSE:SU near *33$* !!!

hahahaha hahahaha hahahaha


----------



## hboy43

Hi:

Woo Hoo! Go SU go. Not as long as Larry, but I am pretty long.

hboy43


----------



## larry81

Cant wait for the earnings !


----------



## MoMoney

larry81 said:


> Cant wait for the earnings !


When are these due to be released?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Too lazy to look it up? 

Nov.4th.


----------



## R.O.V.

larry81 said:


> TSE:SU near *33$* !!!
> 
> hahahaha hahahaha hahahaha


LOL...Larry81...you must be very happy! I started at $28.40 after seeing your bold move, added at $28.86 and again yesterday at31.30. Needless to say I am also feelin pretty good


----------



## larry81

R.O.V. said:


> LOL...Larry81...you must be very happy! I started at $28.40 after seeing your bold move, added at $28.86 and again yesterday at31.30. Needless to say I am also feelin pretty good


28.40 is a very good entry point.

Do you plan a quick trade or are you willing to ride the roller coaster to 40 

Earnings are coming and considering others majors oils players numbers, i have a good feeling about SU


----------



## ibex

Anyone with an explanation why there is a difference between SU and SU.to, is it currency related or something else. Thanks in advance. Also, if it is currency related how does the stock price move in relation.


----------



## zylon

That was covered before:
http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=90346&postcount=139


----------



## ibex

excellent, thanks for the quick reply.


----------



## cdnpennystocks

My brother bought these at $26, and sold at $30 I tried telling him to hang on, I think they have a lot of upside still!


----------



## larry81

Just want to congrats everyone who bought at <30 

Hope i am not the only one enjoying the ride !


----------



## Toronto.gal

Don't worry Larry, you're not alone! 

Held 1/2 my position [$25.61 USD].


----------



## dogleg

hboy43: please don't post your numbers or this topic that I started two months ago will never end ! There have to be some other shares out there that deserve attention. Cheers.


----------



## KaeJS

KaeJS said:


> Too Soon, Junior:
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odwnpFwuwF8


I feel a little bad,

But I couldn't help but go back to page 17 and read/watch this scenario all over again...


----------



## marina628

this thread was getting very exciting ,I was not as lucky as some of you guys but I bought 150 shares at $30.31 .


----------



## Jon_Snow

Late to this party - [email protected] $31.


----------



## larry81

@marina & @jon

Still very good entry point imho

A bet on SU is a bet on the recovery (and higher oil price)


----------



## Cal

larry81 said:


> I am in 3760 @26.60
> 
> 6 month - 1 year


Would that time frame change if the stock hits a target price for you?


----------



## dogleg

This thread is starting to remind me of the Stockhouse Bullboard where a lot of posters show the number of shares they claim to own. The amusing part happened a couple of years ago when Cliffs was in the process of taking over a small Ring of Fire company. Some commercial shareholders got together to see if they collectively had the shares to stop the sale. They were asked to post their share totals. As it turned out when the sale was completed and the real numbers were given they weren't even close to the number of shares people claimed to own. Some even 'photo-shopped' their brokerage chits. So when I see people posting the shares they claim to own I always remember this Stockhouse bogus total . Anyway people are people and do puzzling things .Cheers and good luck.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Yeah, I was going to post 1million [email protected] $26, but I thought people might be skeptical.


----------



## dogleg

Why post a number at all ?


----------



## marina628

I never invest more than $5000 in a single Stock at a time with one exception I had a winfall and put $40,000 in Enb on Feb 11 and it is my best performer this year with 18-19% return.My worst stock right now is CNQ ,I bought around time of the big explosion and currently that is down about 30%.Been wondering if i should buy a few more and pray they go up again to the level I bought at.
What seems like a big amount to some people may not to others .Larry's position on SU is huge to me(and most of us i bet) while my $4500 position may be gigantic to other posters.


----------



## dogleg

Marina628: I take your point but I'm never impressed by the share numbers people post especially after that Stockhouse experience. It was shown that some posters actually 'photo-shopped' brokerage chits just to get attention I guess. Since then I just find it amusing when I see people post the shares they say they own . It is ,however, sometimes interesting to see where people get in and out of a stock and their reasons for the timing but share numbers - forget it . Cheers .


----------



## marina628

I am sorry Stockhouse means nothing to me , did it happen here or another forum?I am only buying stuff I plan to keep for 10+ years ,I am smart enough to know I am not that great of an investor to try to day trade lol.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Do you guys seriously read Stockhouse Bullboard?
I think I visited it like once and got disgusted with all the pumper and dumpers.
There are only two kinds of posters there - pumpers/dumpers or short sellers.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I'm starting to understand that this board has a "cranky" component to it.


----------



## hboy43

dogleg said:


> hboy43: please don't post your numbers or this topic that I started two months ago will never end ! There have to be some other shares out there that deserve attention. Cheers.


OK. Besides the details of my SU holdings can be found elsewhere.

I like Norbord and own lots of it. Do you think there will ever be houses put up again in the USA? Is your investment horizon ~ 10 years?

hboy43


----------



## KaeJS

dogleg said:


> Why post a number at all ?


It's not about the number posted. 

It's about the fact people are posting before it actually turns a profit.

And I post small trades all the time (50 shares) and always post them.

I have nothing to hide, nor do I stand anything to gain by lying.


----------



## el oro

I don't have a problem with the stockhouse board. It's the place to be for discussing stocks on the venture exchange. You definitely need to know how to weed out the ample useless posts, though.


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> Why post a number at all ?


I personally did it because of the important size of the position i took in TSE:SU, tough it might interest others CMF members.

Also remember what kind of market sentiment there was at the time i posted, for me it was a way to show that "*end of the world for some, opportunity for others*" 

I do trade like that once in a while and while i been lucky (you almost always get 'lucky' when you buy <PE10 !!!) but make no mistake, i am truly a long term buy and holder myself. I could tell you about the monthly VTI/VXUS/XIC puchases i do but that would be boring isnt ?

I have nothing to prove to CMF members, i am just here for fun and see what others are up to ! However, i am happy that others took position in TSE:SU, this way we can share the fun


----------



## Causalien

I bought BP during the golf oil spill, and now I see this thread (About to be forced out of my position due to my covered call). So, anyone care to educate me on why Suncor is down like BP did in the gulf spill?


----------



## larry81

Causalien said:


> I bought BP during the golf oil spill, and now I see this thread (About to be forced out of my position due to my covered call). So, anyone care to educate me on why Suncor is down like BP did in the gulf spill?


Difficult to pinpoint but imho, its a combinaison of lybian 'war' and general market panic


----------



## PMREdmonton

Causalien said:


> I bought BP during the golf oil spill, and now I see this thread (About to be forced out of my position due to my covered call). So, anyone care to educate me on why Suncor is down like BP did in the gulf spill?


Suncor is not a low cost producer so they are a high-beta stock. Any time oil is down below $70 they are hit disproportionately compared to others. Anytime it is above $90 they benefit disproportionately.

The other thing is their oil is landlocked and they end up selling much of their oil sands oil at a low price compared to its true price (if it could be shipped by water).

Lastly, I think they have been impacted by the issues in Lybia and Syria.


----------



## larry81

PMREdmonton said:


> The other thing is their oil is landlocked and they end up selling much of their oil sands oil at a low price compared to its true price (if it could be shipped by water).


Hopefully, Keystone XL will change that


----------



## larry81

Cal said:


> Would that time frame change if the stock hits a target price for you?


Still not sure about this, anything over 35 is a big winner for me but i am prepared to hold for longer if the market keep raising.

I am prepared to hold this, i dont need this capital anytime soon.


----------



## Causalien

larry81 said:


> Still not sure about this, anything over 35 is a big winner for me but i am prepared to hold for longer if the market keep raising.
> 
> I am prepared to hold this, i dont need this capital anytime soon.


I've heard this internal dialogue before.

So long as you use mark to market on your whole portfolio when you evaluate where you are, you should be fine. Also, for setting time frame, I always abide by the time frame I set before I bought. If I realize that I extended the time frame because of a sudden move down, then I will admit to myself that I lost out on this and go into recovery mode. i.e. Does this company perform well in the past when SHTF (example BP) and does this company have enough cash to weather the storm. Finally, are there other opportunities out there where the return on cash is higher vs the expected return on Equity of the current stock.

I've heard 30 year old veterans lying to themselves saying that a stock that's 50% off its original value is not at a loss because he hasn't sold yet.


----------



## larry81

Causalien said:


> I've heard 30 year old veterans lying to themselves saying that a stock that's 50% off its original value is not at a loss because he hasn't sold yet.


I am still holding Nortel, they will recover !!!

(just kidding)


----------



## daddybigbucks

Causalien said:


> I've heard 30 year old veterans lying to themselves saying that a stock that's 50% off its original value is not at a loss because he hasn't sold yet.


Realistically you are mostly right.
but on the flip side...
Is Larry81 a big winner right now or only when he sells?


----------



## dogleg

hboy43 said:


> OK. Besides the details of my SU holdings can be found elsewhere.
> 
> I like Norbord and own lots of it. Do you think there will ever be houses put up again in the USA? Is your investment horizon ~ 10 years?
> 
> hboy43


I guess this is a discussion for another thread but you have more confidence than I if you believe the housing market will revive anytime in the near to distant future. Grant Forest Products closed about five years ago and they tore down some plants and are in receivership with a $75m debt. Georgia Pacific has made offers but it involves the transfer to foreign ownership of timber rights . Very messy and long-term at best. I'm not sure about Norbord but see their shares are way down and can't see how their market situation can be much different than Grant's. Anyway good luck. Cheers.


----------



## Homerhomer

daddybigbucks said:


> Realistically you are mostly right.
> but on the flip side...
> Is Larry81 a big winner right now or only when he sells?


when he sells.

It's like being a marathon runner, if you are first for 39km but have a heart attack once you get to 40km, are you a winner?


----------



## larry81

daddybigbucks said:


> Realistically you are mostly right.
> but on the flip side...
> Is Larry81 a big winner right now or only when he sells?


IMHO, only when i sell and 'crystalize' the gain (loss).

paper gain = paper loss


----------



## larry81

Allright folks, SU report earnings this week what are your prediction regarding TSE:SU price ? 

>35 ?


----------



## Jungle

$37. 
All the big oil beat estimates and profited more than 2010 q3. We bought COS with this in $19.XX, they missed, so let's hope this rides up too.


----------



## KaeJS

I think $37 is too steep.

$35.50


----------



## hboy43

dogleg said:


> I guess this is a discussion for another thread but you have more confidence than I if you believe the housing market will revive anytime in the near to distant future. Grant Forest Products closed about five years ago and they tore down some plants and are in receivership with a $75m debt. Georgia Pacific has made offers but it involves the transfer to foreign ownership of timber rights . Very messy and long-term at best. I'm not sure about Norbord but see their shares are way down and can't see how their market situation can be much different than Grant's. Anyway good luck. Cheers.


Yes, this one is definately my speculative pick. There is a reason I said 10 years and not 10 minutes. I have owned and been following > 5 years now. 

I probably wouldn't be in this space if the controlling shareholders (BAM) had not demonstrated themselves to be honourable 3 years ago in both coming with rescue financing, and allowing the minority folks to stay, instead of forcing them out at a low price like many others might have done.

Anyhow, interesting story IMHO. Latest quarter lost $0.02. Q2 fiscal 2010 made $0.70 (or something like that). I find the reasons for this wide divergence in quarterly results to be sufficiently interesting to be long 7400 shares.

hboy43


----------



## zylon

*Wintering Hills Wind Farm Project*

I took a drive out to the WHWFP today. It looks as if all 55 turbines are up, but only about half were turning. It's hard to count the number of turbines because they're spread out over several square miles, in rolling hills. A person would have to get an aerial photo in order to capture the whole project in one shot.










http://www.suncor.com/en/about/217.aspx


----------



## KaeJS

Cool stuff, zy.


----------



## marina628

We took a drive out there last year when we were in Alberta , totally cool to see so many in use.Before that the most i seen was 2-3 in Pickering Ontario .


----------



## Eder

marina628 said:


> We took a drive out there last year when we were in Alberta , totally cool to see so many in use.Before that the most i seen was 2-3 in Pickering Ontario .


I think they look disgusting,a new form of pollution imo


----------



## KaeJS

Eder said:


> I think they look disgusting,a new form of pollution imo


They do.

But at least we will still be able to drink our water and won't have to look at black grudging pools of filth with dead fish and decaying plant matter.


----------



## larry81

Down 6% premarket !!!


----------



## killuminati

hmm wondering if I should get in now or wait for a little more of a drop.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Jumped in and bought a few hundred shares just so I can join the bandwagon!


----------



## larry81

Boxing day sale before earning


----------



## jamesbe

Everything is plummeting now because of Greece, you should have sold


----------



## webber22

KaeJS said:


> I feel a little bad,
> 
> But I couldn't help but go back to page 17 and read/watch this scenario all over again...



I'm glad I bailed out when I did !! 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWi4HutNX5M

After it drops a few more dozen per cent, I'll get back in and ride it to $40+ into 2012


----------



## KaeJS

Haha.

Nice comeback, Webber. 

Kudos!


----------



## dogleg

Some of the comments on this thread scare me. Has this panel been taken over by penny stock 'dart board' investors ? We are dealing with a stock that reached about $70. when the world went nuts about three years ago and it has never been above $47. since . It has a 1.37% div. yield and a S&P rating of 3/5. So where is all this exuberance coming from ? Phil Town would call it crazy . Anyway good luck to all.


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> Some of the comments on this thread scare me. Has this panel been taken over by penny stock 'dart board' investors ? We are dealing with a stock that reached about $70. when the world went nuts about three years ago and it has never been above $47. since . It has a 1.37% div. yield and a S&P rating of 3/5. So where is all this exuberance coming from ? Phil Town would call it crazy . Anyway good luck to all.


You are right, SU = YLO


----------



## ddkay

Upside target with earnings beat $33-34 tops. It is written so it shall be done (Goldfinger). I was mistaken about the Nov 4th release. It's Nov 3rd (tonight) at 12AM.


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> Upside target with earnings beat $33-34 tops. It is written so it shall be done (Goldfinger). I was mistaken about the Nov 4th release. It's Nov 3rd (tonight) at 12AM.


I am ready with my popcorn


----------



## larry81

> CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Oct. 27, 2011) - Suncor Energy Inc. will release its third quarter financial results on Thursday, Nov. 3, 2011 at 12:30 a.m. MDT (2:30 a.m. EDT).
> 
> Following the release, a teleconference to review the third quarter will be held at 8:00 a.m. MDT (10:00 a.m. EDT). Representing management will be Rick George, president and chief executive officer, Steve Williams, chief operating officer and Bart Demosky, chief financial officer. A question and answer period will follow brief remarks from management. Steve Douglas, vice president, Investor Relations, will host the call.


Brace yourself


----------



## ibex

So what kind of results are we looking for? First time I have been waiting for earnings results!!


----------



## larry81

ibex said:


> So what kind of results are we looking for? First time I have been waiting for earnings results!!





> Credit Suisse has kept an Outperform rating and $50 target price on Suncor Energy (SU.TO) ahead of its Q3 on Thursday.
> Q311 Preview: "Suncor reports Q311 results before market open on Thursday, November 3rd. We forecast EPS/CFPS of C$0.85/C$1.54 versus C$0.42/C$1.04 a year ago and C$0.62/C$1.26 in Q211. A recent company survey of 16 analysts indicates *consensus of C$0.80/C$1.55,* ranging from C$0.58/C$1.32 to C$0.96/C$1.74. We forecast crude oil (including oil sands) and natural gas production will average 553 kboe/d, largely in line with *consensus of 549 kboe/d* and up from 460 kboe/d in Q211 due to the completion of significant maintenance activities at oil sands."


http://community.nasdaq.com/News/20...-november-3.aspx?storyid=100922#ixzz1cbaZOuBB


----------



## gibor365

ibex said:


> So what kind of results are we looking for? First time I have been waiting for earnings results!!


Looking at futures, SU will sink tomorrow regardless earnings, .... cancer-country gonna take all markets down


----------



## marina628

I do not own enough to make a difference


----------



## ibex

Why would the futures be down so much with not much news out there? Thanks


----------



## larry81

ibex said:


> Why would the futures be down so much with not much news out there? Thanks


Thats the news the market is reacting too

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ers-withhold-greek-aid-before-referendum.html

Greece spreading his cancer once again !


----------



## ibex

Thanks, lets just say for academic's sake the results for Suncor come in through the roof beyond all expectations, if market sentiment is such as it is tonight with the futures would Suncor react the same as the market and when sentiment changes it would react that much more positively? Thanks again, these discussions are great.


----------



## ddkay

On earnings day, if a stock beats eps and revenue estimates and raises guidance it usually outperforms the market, if it does poorly in either of those or both it could get punished much more than the market

PS where are the results? Nothing in the newswires, 24 minutes late so far...


----------



## ddkay

Oh, 2:30 AM EST, 12:30 MST (Alberta time)


----------



## ddkay

I hope larry has more popcorn


----------



## Jungle

Suncor Energy Inc. recorded third quarter 2011 net earnings of $1.287 billion ($0.82 per common share), compared to net earnings of $1.224 billion ($0.78 per common share) for the third quarter of 2010.

http://www.suncor.com/en/newsroom/2418.aspx?id=1523858


----------



## larry81

US/CDN futures are up big time

SU earnings were positive

ding ding ding ! the market open in 10min


----------



## larry81

Already 1M volume after 15min of trading !

Earnings day sure are funny


----------



## ddkay

R U selling? $32.52 HOD, I called $33-34 tops


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> R U selling? $32.52 HOD, I called $33-34 tops


nope


----------



## dogleg

People are at liberty to get all excited about a given stock like SU but investors should deal with reality when it comes to expectations. Canada produces about 2.5 million b/dy ,the US about 5.4 , Russia , 9.5 and OPEC 31 . US production increased by over 8% in '09 and Canada was producing about 2 million b/dy ten years ago. We need to take all these factors into account when we put our money into a stock like SU. And US consumption has dropped by about 10% in the last three years. I like SU and have many shares and have no plans to sell any right now but I don't expect any huge run-up - why would you when you carefully examine the data. Cheers and good luck to all.


----------



## Sampson

I don't have an opinion on whether we have reached peak oil, but it is not production people care about, its reserves, and this is where Canadian companies will benefit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

Suncor is a perfect example of why Canadian production is indispensable. Oil sands are amongst the most expensive to extract from, yet how much time and money has been invested into this?


----------



## ddkay

Someone let me know when they build an oil pipeline to Mars


----------



## dogleg

Sampson: I agree reserves are important ,however, there are many variables in the energy sector and demand is a huge factor that can change drastically . The scamble for gas is enormous and can displace a lot of oil demand . New discoveries can change things overnight. I believe, as you say, oil will be a major investment commodity for years but I don't like to see people go overboard on any stock even one like SU.


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> Sampson: I agree reserves are important ,however, there are many variables in the energy sector and demand is a huge factor that can change drastically . The scamble for gas is enormous and can displace a lot of oil demand . New discoveries can change things overnight. I believe, as you say, oil will be a major investment commodity for years but I don't like to see people go overboard on any stock even one like SU.


Nobody is going overboard dogleg. I am simply optimistic about the future of SU, thats it ! 

To be honest, i dont care about SU or oil, i am just in for the $$$


----------



## Sampson

dogleg said:


> ...but I don't like to see people go overboard on any stock even one like SU.


I suppose it was just a valuation call. this thread could just as easily have been:

Is CNRL/TLM/Cenovus a sure thing today (Oct 4, 2011)?

Why there has been no discussion about the actual merits and future valuations for SU, there has also been no arguments against them.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I just sold and took an $800 profit after 2 days. Thanks for starting this thread Larry.


----------



## ddkay

$32.99


----------



## ddkay

$33!


----------



## dogleg

I hate taxes: And Larry started this thread ???


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> I hate taxes: And Larry started this thread ???


you did, i just shoulder surfed you 

do you still hold your SU shares ?


----------



## Ihatetaxes

My apologies, my apologies! You are a true gentleman and I owe you a commission of a pitcher and some wings.


----------



## larry81

Ihatetaxes said:


> I just sold and took an $800 profit after 2 days. Thanks for starting this thread Larry.


800$ in 2 days is very good, congrats on a nice trade


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> People are at liberty to get all excited about a given stock like SU but investors should deal with reality when it comes to expectations. Canada produces about 2.5 million b/dy ,the US about 5.4 , Russia , 9.5 and OPEC 31 . US production increased by over 8% in '09 and Canada was producing about 2 million b/dy ten years ago. We need to take all these factors into account when we put our money into a stock like SU. And US consumption has dropped by about 10% in the last three years. I like SU and have many shares and have no plans to sell any right now but I don't expect any huge run-up - why would you when you carefully examine the data. Cheers and good luck to all.


It suddenly hit me, considering all this rationale... explain to me why you bough TSE:SU at 47$ !


----------



## Jungle

The performance of SU is almost doubling the positions of COS. We bought both at the same time, but we bought more SU than COS. 

I'm very happy they beat estimates today. It's the strongest holding in our stock portfolio right now.


----------



## dogleg

Jungle : Well as you say its all about timing if you take a short -term investment snapshot . However, if you compare the H/L over a year for both there isnt much difference ie, 2 : 1.88. Anyway on goes the money chase ; don't you wonder sometimes if its even worth the time and effort? As my golf buddy says when you have more money than you will ever spend why use your time grubbing for more . It becomes a game I guess, kind of like poker I must admit. Cheers.


----------



## Jungle

That's a very good point dogleg, it makes sense. We have goals in regards to financial independence, so buying stocks will help us get there by building wealth. This is part of our strategy. (on a side note, our positions in these two stocks are rather _peanuts_ compared to larry or others.) 

I'm very passionate about building wealth and sometimes we con be aggressive when saving and investing. I realize that this can be a problem. Such as underspending or over saving. It could imply not enjoying life enough. 

However, we do take the time to enjoy life and there are ways to do this, without spending recklessly. We pretty much do that, while keeping goals and priorities in mind.


----------



## dogleg

(on a side note, our positions in these two stocks are rather peanuts compared to larry or others.) 

Jungle: That is the kind of 'myth' that all these forums create isn't it. No one knows how many shares most people have because they don't brag about it - some do, however. I or someone else might have ten times more SU shares than he does but who would know it. I go back to the Stockhouse situation I described earlier: when an accounting was done the real numbers were not even close to what posters claimed to own . Some even photo-shopped brokerage chits and posted phony numbers on the thread. So I just smile when I see posters putting up numbers; I don't either care or believe any of them necessarily. But forums like this have value if a person knows what to accept and what to ignore. Anyway I appreciate your comments. Cheers.


----------



## larry81

32 is the new 26 !


----------



## larry81

dogleg said:


> (on a side note, our positions in these two stocks are rather peanuts compared to larry or others.)
> 
> Jungle: That is the kind of 'myth' that all these forums create isn't it. No one knows how many shares most people have because they don't brag about it - some do, however. I or someone else might have ten times more SU shares than he does but who would know it. I go back to the Stockhouse situation I described earlier: when an accounting was done the real numbers were not even close to what posters claimed to own . Some even photo-shopped brokerage chits and posted phony numbers on the thread. So I just smile when I see posters putting up numbers; I don't either care or believe any of them necessarily. But forums like this have value if a person knows what to accept and what to ignore. Anyway I appreciate your comments. Cheers.


dogleg, you have been posting this kind of stuff for a couple days now.

yes you unmasked me, I own no share of SU i am just here to get attention from random anonymous internet forum participants.

yes SU is worthless, the fundamentals don't match the dividends so BEWARE

yes you are right, high net worth people don't enjoy live and are obsessed with making money.

You say that you don't care but you do seem to care a lot. My feeling is that you are bitter because you see others people surfing the SU ramp up while you purchased your shares in the 40s. Be a gentlemen and stop raining on the parade please.


----------



## ibex

Couldn't have said it better myself. It's always easier to make someone else feel bad, instead of trying to make yourself feel good.


----------



## Rommel

I really like Suncor currently...although the other day I noticed they cut their outlook for 2012...

Larry, what are your thoughts on this?


----------



## larry81

Rommel said:


> I really like Suncor currently...although the other day I noticed they cut their outlook for 2012...
> 
> Larry, what are your thoughts on this?


Pretty much everyone cut their 2012 outlook.

IMHO, when it come to economic performance, it is better to manage expectations and lower the bar than to miss earnings


----------



## larry81

Oil moving around de 95 level now.


----------



## larry81

Hello 33.60 !

That's a 6$ profit per unit for me


----------



## larry81

> Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T33.290.401.22%) shares are still a long way from the 52-week highs above $45 they were trading at last March, even after reporting $1.287-billion in third-quarter earnings last week.
> 
> RBC Dominion Securities Inc. analyst Greg Pardy thinks investors may be overlooking the momentum the company is enjoying when it comes to improving its operating performance.
> 
> “As one of the largest and most liquid energy producers on the board, Suncor’s relative valuation compression in recent months has reflected a multitude of market concerns ranging from an oil price collapse to oil sands cost inflation,” Mr. Pardy said in a research note. “While these are legitimate considerations, Suncor’s solid operating performance over the course of 2011 has largely gone unnoticed.”
> 
> Suncor is slated to release its 2012 budget Tuesday, although it has already signaled its capital program for next year would be around $7.5-billion - a more conservative figure than some had expected. Using that number as a guide, Mr. Pardy believes Suncor’s free cash flow could come in at $2.9-billion. While the company has stated its priorities for cash flow are to fund its base business and growth initiatives, he said it’s possible Suncor could also grow its dividend next year.
> 
> “Suncor remains our favorite stock given its upstream production visibility, strong balance sheet and massive oil sands resources,” he said.
> 
> Upside: *RBC reaffirmed its $49 price target and “outperform” rating.*


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob... RSS/Atom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2228159


----------



## marina628

Larry
I have sat at many high stakes tables and seen guys with thousands lose it all.In fact last night I sat at a table where a player had guaranteed $27,000 CAD and he LOST ALL OF IT.I just hope you do not make me watch you lose on SU


----------



## larry81

marina628 said:


> Larry
> I have sat at many high stakes tables and seen guys with thousands lose it all.In fact last night I sat at a table where a player had guaranteed $27,000 CAD and he LOST ALL OF IT.I just hope you do not make me watch you lose on SU


Rewards come with risks 

I am prepared to lose it all, paper gain = paper loss !


----------



## jamesbe

I hope they stay in the $30 range so that I can guy some in Jan when room in my TFSA opens up.


----------



## Abha

larry81 said:


> I am prepared to lose it all, paper gain = paper loss !


I hope that's not your mindset holding this. If the company exhibits weakness, cut it and collect your profits. You're already way in the green on this one.

Don't be willing to give it back....I'm hoping you said that in jest.


----------



## Jungle

I've been thinking about adding position to this..


----------



## larry81

Someone taking a gigantic position in afterhours trading...


----------



## larry81

Abha said:


> I hope that's not your mindset holding this. If the company exhibits weakness, cut it and collect your profits. You're already way in the green on this one.
> 
> Don't be willing to give it back....I'm hoping you said that in jest.


Of course i wont let 25k vaporate into thin air ! But i dont see SU heading south of 30 anything soon (unless the eurozone explode) 

With rumors about Iran nuclear capability on the newswire right now, oil should climb higher (nearing 96 as i type this).


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> Rewards come with risks
> 
> I am prepared to lose it all, paper gain = paper loss !


ok I just need to chime in here, I just don't want you to learn your lesson the hard way, i'm not a bull nor a bear... first of all you loaded it up at the time when SPX cracked some key level at 1100 and went below... that's a huge newbie mistake and it was a pure luck that pulled you out because that's when Euro announced about their new plan on greece, have they not done that it could of EASILY sank to 1000 level on SPX, when market sinks energy and financials take the worst beating...second of all, taking position like that with 50+% of your capital in a oil stock when there's a good chances of another recession is a sure way to loose alot of money... good luck


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> Someone taking a gigantic position in afterhours trading...


that is pointless, it doesn't mean a thing


----------



## zylon

In my dealings with buy and hold mutual fund advocates (“_because I like the ongoing trailer fees_”), they always like to trot out the line, “if you miss the ten best days of the year, your returns will be bla bla bla bla”. And I ask, “what happens if I miss the ten *worst* days”? They look at me as if I'm from Mars, which I'm proud to say, I am.

Now I have an answer; if a person missed the two worst months of SU's life, the returns would nearly quadruple.


> Suncor Energy (SU.TO) Seasonality
> Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of November 15 and a sell date of September 14, investors have benefited from a total return of 1502.19% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 10 of those periods.
> 
> The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 410.18%.
> EquityClock.com












Note the fine print in lower left corner.


----------



## larry81

blin10 said:


> ok I just need to chime in here, I just don't want you to learn your lesson the hard way, i'm not a bull nor a bear... first of all you loaded it up at the time when SPX cracked some key level at 1100 and went below... that's a huge newbie mistake and it was a pure luck that pulled you out because that's when Euro announced about their new plan on greece, have they not done that it could of EASILY sank to 1000 level on SPX, when market sinks energy and financials take the worst beating...second of all, taking position like that with 50+% of your capital in a oil stock when there's a good chances of another recession is a sure way to loose alot of money... good luck


The euro Greece plan was highly predictable, so was the cancellation of their little referendum.

Do you really believe that market support indicator mean anything in a schyzophrenic market like the last 3 months ? Take a look at SU, SP5000 YTD market, you are right that SU was beaten to the ground, almost to the 2008-2009 market crash level !

But you are darn righ that it was a gamble, the world market is a giant casino.

Also, dont worry this position is not 50% of my capital.


----------



## gibor365

zylon said:


> In my dealings with buy and hold mutual fund advocates (“_because I like the ongoing trailer fees_”), they always like to trot out the line, “if you miss the ten best days of the year, your returns will be bla bla bla bla”. And I ask, “what happens if I miss the ten *worst* days”? They look at me as if I'm from Mars, which I'm proud to say, I am.
> 
> Now I have an answer; if a person missed the two worst months of SU's life, the returns would nearly quadruple.
> 
> Note the fine print in lower left corner.


So historically the worst period for SU from Sept 14 to November 15.... but this year in period Sept 14 - Nov 7 , SU gained 13%


----------



## zylon

gibor said:


> So historically the worst period for SU from Sept 14 to November 15.... but this year in period Sept 14 - Nov 7 , SU gained 13%


That's why I said to check the fine print.

From Nov 15, 2010 to Sep 14, 2011 SU was down 15% (chart)

It could be an abnormality or the curse of Petro Can?


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> *The euro Greece plan was highly predictable, so was the cancellation of their little referendum.*
> 
> Do you really believe that market support indicator mean anything in a schyzophrenic market like the last 3 months ? Take a look at SU, SP5000 YTD market, you are right that SU was beaten to the ground, almost to the 2008-2009 market crash level !
> 
> But you are darn righ that it was a gamble, the world market is a giant casino.
> 
> Also, dont worry this position is not 50% of my capital.


it was highly predictable? why did markets sank if it was so predictable ? .. market support indicator means even more in schizophrenic market because everyone is watching that like a hawk... bottom line is, Europe is in a major trouble they can't possibly keep dumbing money into a hole, Greece will never pay that money back (at least not in out lifetime) so something will happen sooner or later


----------



## ddkay

At the beginning of October I joked this rally would take us to 52 wk highs. Lo and behold, October posts the largest monthly gains in 20 years. Be careful what you say, anything is possible... I could wake up with powers to levitate tomorrow.


----------



## Jungle

I like buying quality stocks when everyone is scared.


----------



## larry81

Jungle said:


> I like buying quality stocks when everyone is scared.


Many people are still scared, so its time to continue buying !


----------



## larry81

blin10 said:


> it was highly predictable? why did markets sank if it was so predictable ?


because the financials media spinned it like a record and many investors simply get in panic-world-is-exploding-mode.

Do you know how many time Greece defaulted in the last 100 years ? Greece is 0.03% of the world GDP ? Do you really think the fate of the civilized world rest on this insignificant country ? Ref: http://financialedge.investopedia.c...ek-Sovereign-Debt-Defaults.aspx#axzz1d4KgMkbO

For anyone with a little common sense, this kind of non-event is easy to spot, ref: Greece 'referendum', http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=93534&postcount=1427

Here a great book every investor should read:
http://www.amazon.ca/Triumph-Optimists-Global-Investment-Returns/dp/0691091943


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> *because the financials media spinned it like a record and many investors simply get in panic-world-is-exploding-mode.*
> 
> Do you know how many time Greece defaulted in the last 100 years ? Greece is 0.03% of the world GDP ? Do you really think the fate of the civilized world rest on this insignificant country ? Ref: http://financialedge.investopedia.c...ek-Sovereign-Debt-Defaults.aspx#axzz1d4KgMkbO
> 
> For anyone with a little common sense, this kind of non-event is easy to spot, ref: Greece 'referendum', http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=93534&postcount=1427
> 
> Here a great book every investor should read:
> http://www.amazon.ca/Triumph-Optimists-Global-Investment-Returns/dp/0691091943


do you really think that move down was because media spinned the story? did you know that most of the SPX volume is all from banks/hedge funds/institutions/big boys, they do not watch cnbc, regular people with their 1-100k positions have no effect on anything... greece is small, but nobody cares about greece, everyone scared it will create a domino effect with many other European countries... germany, france burning alot of money that they will never get back any time soon... not to mention USA is in deep **** as well, high debt, still high housing inventory, high unemployment, interests rate 0 for a while and they will keep it at 0 for years, etc... and you're betting SU will keep going higher, but hey anything is possible, good luck....


----------



## larry81

blin10 said:


> do you really think that move down was because media spinned the story? did you know that most of the SPX volume is all from banks/hedge funds/institutions/big boys, they do not watch cnbc, regular people with their 1-100k positions have no effect on anything... greece is small, but nobody cares about greece, everyone scared it will create a domino effect with many other European countries... germany, france burning alot of money that they will never get back any time soon... not to mention USA is in deep **** as well, high debt, still high housing inventory, high unemployment, interests rate 0 for a while and they will keep it at 0 for years, etc... and you're betting SU will keep going higher, but hey anything is possible, good luck....


Most of the volume is done by algorithmic trading bots, and yes, they "read" the news and take position according to market 'sentiment'

But you are right, the sky is failing (again) !


----------



## larry81

zylon said:


> In my dealings with buy and hold mutual fund advocates (“_because I like the ongoing trailer fees_”), they always like to trot out the line, “if you miss the ten best days of the year, your returns will be bla bla bla bla”. And I ask, “what happens if I miss the ten *worst* days”? They look at me as if I'm from Mars, which I'm proud to say, I am.


Excellent research zylon, thanks for posting


----------



## Ihatetaxes

blin10 said:


> do you really think that move down was because media spinned the story? did you know that most of the SPX volume is all from banks/hedge funds/institutions/big boys, they do not watch cnbc, regular people with their 1-100k positions have no effect on anything... greece is small, but nobody cares about greece, everyone scared it will create a domino effect with many other European countries... germany, france burning alot of money that they will never get back any time soon... not to mention USA is in deep **** as well, high debt, still high housing inventory, high unemployment, interests rate 0 for a while and they will keep it at 0 for years, etc... and you're betting SU will keep going higher, but hey anything is possible, good luck....


What rate of return is your mattress giving you? Do the lumps cause insomnia?


----------



## larry81

lol funny graph ddkay but so true at the same time, keep em coming


----------



## zylon

larry81 said:


> ... thanks for posting


No problem larry.

Thackray (of equityclock.com) and Vialoux (of timingthemarket.ca) are strategists for HAC (t)

I'm thinking it might be a good place to park cash in between panic bottoms.

HAC chart since inception


----------



## gibor365

zylon said:


> No problem larry.
> 
> Thackray (of equityclock.com) and Vialoux (of timingthemarket.ca) are strategists for HAC (t)
> 
> I'm thinking it might be a good place to park cash in between panic bottoms.
> 
> HAC chart since inception


those guys too expensive with 2.33% MER


----------



## webber22

HAC has a MER of 0.75%, not 2.33%.


----------



## gibor365

webber22 said:


> HAC has a MER of 0.75%, not 2.33%.


As per tdwaterhouse.ca
Fees & Expenses
Data as of Friday, Sep 30, 2011
Actual Management Fee	0.75%
Actual Mgmt. Expense Ratio (MER)	2.33%


----------



## larry81

> Suncor Energy Inc.'s Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share on its common shares, payable Dec. 23, 2011 to shareholders of record at the close of business on Dec. 2, 2011.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Suncor-Energy-declares-iw-1441583089.html?x=0


----------



## gibor365

larry81 said:


> http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Suncor-Energy-declares-iw-1441583089.html?x=0


I was hoping they will increase dividends...


----------



## larry81

Oil approaching 97 !

Almost a 20$ increase in two months...


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Oil approaching 97 !
> 
> Almost a 20$ increase in two months...


Time to start thinking about selling and buying back later.

The novelty of their earnings and dividend will fall off with the decrease in oil, surely to come in the future. Cant stay over $100 again for very long, imo.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Time to start thinking about selling and buying back later.
> 
> The novelty of their earnings and dividend will fall off with the decrease in oil, surely to come in the future. Cant stay over $100 again for very long, imo.


I will look into that once WTI crude reach 100


----------



## Homerhomer

larry81 said:


> Oil approaching 97 !
> 
> Almost a 20$ increase in two months...


Which means less profit for everyone else.


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> I will look into that once WTI crude reach 100


I am looking into that right now.

I've got $400+ sitting in unrealized gains for Suncor.

For me, that is a lot of money and I would hate to not solidify those gains, especially as I am still borrowing on margin.


----------



## larry81

This is going down the drain


----------



## sensfan15

I got on this at 29.33. If it starts to sink again I am going to add more!


----------



## larry81

WTI Crude almost 98%, up 2% today...

SU should normally be up almost 3-5% !


----------



## Rommel

larry81 said:


> WTI Crude almost 98%, up 2% today...
> 
> SU should normally be up almost 3-5% !


It should correct itself soon enough


----------



## HaroldCrump

larry81 said:


> WTI Crude almost 98%, up 2% today...


You mean $98, right, not 98% 



> SU should normally be up almost 3-5% !


It's not that simple, Larry.
A stock's price is often not in lock step with the commodity, similar to the gold producers.
There are company specific factors, such as production risks, geo-political risks, management statements and news, etc.
Also, depends on the spreads between the various grades of crude, how much of output the company is selling at which price, the composition of output, downstream issues, etc.
Integrated oil companies like Suncor and Husky are complicated beasts


----------



## larry81

Exclusive: U.S. to seek new Keystone route, delaying approval


> The Obama administration plans to announce on Thursday it will explore a new route for a Canada-to-Texas oil pipeline, delaying a final approval beyond the 2012 U.S. election, sources briefed on the matter said.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/us-usa-pipeline-idUSTRE7A64O920111110


----------



## ddkay

Crude is going through backwardation... good price to short soon IMO


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> WTI Crude almost 98%, up 2% today...
> 
> SU should normally be up almost 3-5% !


you're betting against the trend, not a good place to be at.... don't get me wrong i got some oil companies as well, but I know oil will get killed with any bad news


----------



## larry81

blin10 said:


> you're betting against the trend, not a good place to be at.... don't get me wrong i got some oil companies as well, but I know oil will get killed with any bad news


Oil seem to be pricing an escalation of the iran/israel 'situation'.

SU + 2.75% as i write this

Oil approaching 99$...


----------



## ddkay

aaaaaaaaaand SU is still below $34  can't catch a break here


----------



## Jungle

There is speculation that progress in the EURO zone and improvements in the US, (jobs, confidence) will increase demand for oil.


----------



## larry81

oily bump !

WTI Crude @102 !

SU to 33/34 soon !


----------



## KaeJS

Wasn't it over $33 today?

It had a high of $33.47.

$34 is a no-brainer.


----------



## ddkay

Depends which list you're looking at, NYSE high was 32.87


----------



## killuminati

How does this look now? Things are way back down again... Its under 28 on nyse


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Yeah this thread sure went cold. I might buy back in today.


----------



## larry81

I am still holding


----------



## Toronto.gal

Glad you're still smiling.


----------



## ddkay

Until the day it's below $20 again 

If you want to play oil price buy USO not producers and refiners


----------



## larry81

Anyone still following SU ?

Oil approaching 100$ again

Iran is getting hot

China begging for Canadian oil

yadadada !


----------



## marina628

Just following you Larry lol


----------



## larry81

*4 scenarios for oil if Israel attacks Iran*
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/11/29/4-scenarios-for-oil-if-israel-attacks-iran/


----------



## KaeJS

I don't think we're even going to get to Scenario #1.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I don't think we're even going to get to Scenario #1.


As a former IDF member, IMO those rumours about possible Israeli attack are just BS. 

Shalom haverim


----------



## ddkay

Can't wait for that Iran strike in a few months Suncor is going to zero and greedy oil bulls are wiped off the map


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay,

Are you serious or sarcastic? I can't tell anymore with you...


----------



## Abha

LOL!

You've got to be kidding. Suncor will never get to $0 

Do you realize how integral and integrated Suncor is to the economy and our society (jobs, taxes, programs, projects etc)

If garbage stocks like BAC are surviving the maelstrom out there, then you can bet SU has got an extremely long lifespan (probably more than most of us on this forum)


----------



## ddkay

Oil companies don't get bail outs, they get take overs. Crude bull or bear market line in the sand is WTI @ $120/bbl.

If SU's average production cost really is $40/bbl and CL dives to $20/bbl or below profitability is erased, within a few years they file bankruptcy and assets get bought by bottom fishers.

This market can't afford or handle the price shock of $150/bbl. Anyone trying to make a quick buck off this is dreaming.



> “Although we cannot (and will not) predict whether an attack is imminent, or even likely, our experience and research tells us that any major disruption in the supply of oil from Iran could have either subtle or profound global repercussions,” he said.



Ok I exaggerated the speed it would take. Here are my SU calls in a ridiculous scenario like Iran bombing the global depression that follows

$15 by March 2012
$9 by March 2013
$3 by March 2014
$0 by March 2015

Oh no an energy company went to zero. Suddenly sucks to have a 70% resource based economy, eh?


----------



## gibor365

Tight economical sanctions (that is much more realistic than bombing) against Iran can give good bust to oil stocks imho


----------



## webber22

Oil would go to $200 if Iran was bombed, Suncor to $65. Load up now before it's too late


----------



## ddkay

One can sell a barrel above market threshold but the number of customers they can sell to nosedives. Do the math.. the moment Suncor CNQ and other syn crude producers find their operations unprofitable, their funding will disappear.


----------



## larry81

wow ddkay, you outpaced yourself this time !

SP500 TO 100 !
SU TO 0 !

have fun playing with your triple leveraged etf and double-trouble-whopper-burger reverse options split conversion strike of doom

lol


----------



## ddkay

Sorry but my long term safety trade is cash and I won't become dislodged from it unless a lasting solution is found.


----------



## larry81

shoot more of your personal forecast please !

do you really think that you can 'outsmart' the market with your mspaint based TA and rss news aggregator ? 

Remember this one ?










From what i remember you have less than a year of investment experience and you are playing with leveraged investment vehicle and regularly making call to short this, short that, etc/

The market is an expensive to learn about who you are, and you are in for a good lesson of humility.

Oh but i am sure you are +25% this year !

SP500 to 100 !


----------



## blin10

ddkay said:


> Sorry but my long term safety trade is cash and I won't become dislodged from it unless a lasting solution is found.


cash is good, but su ain't going to 0, you must be out of your mind.... they been trying to push alternative energy and solar but take a look at their stock prices, oil is here to stay for now... electric cars will not solve anything since they cost high premium over gasoline cars so people will not buy them... and if iran gets bombed that will make oil to go up not down... I'm actually thinking once Europe stabilizes a bit oil will make it to 150+, since it's at 100 with market going down...


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay,

I understand you are a bear.

However, what you are saying is quite unreasonable.

Are you thinking with *logic* or _emotions_ right now?


----------



## gibor365

larry81 said:


> From what i remember you have less than a year of investment experience and you are playing with leveraged investment vehicle and regularly making call to short this, short that, etc/
> 
> The market is an expensive to learn about who you are, and you are in for a good lesson of humility.
> 
> Oh but i am sure you are +25% this year !
> 
> SP500 to 100 !


From what I remember , he doesn't buy TZA or FAZ, just sometimes TVIX or it's equivalent


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> ddkay,
> 
> I understand you are a bear.
> 
> However, what you are saying is quite unreasonable.
> 
> Are you thinking with *logic* or _emotions_ right now?


If companies like SU going to 0, the world would be in such disaster, that you won't need any cash  though you may need AK74 or Galil 

I remember ddkay was going to buy some gas mask on Amazon...

From my experience living in USSR, when country is destroyed, the best currency is not cash, but food and vodka  

From my experience living in Israel (during war against Iraq) - gas mask is BS


----------



## larry81

interesting live experiences gibor, thanks for sharing them with us !


----------



## larry81

Up 6% pre-market... Oil at 101$ !


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> 1. From my experience living in USSR, when country is destroyed, the best currency is not cash, but food and vodka
> 
> 2. From my experience living in Israel (during war against Iraq) - gas mask is BS


1. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the laws dissolved and drinking shot up to higher levels than before. President Medvedev has called Russia's alcohol problem a national disaster. *Deaths from alcohol play a large role in what is the literal dying off of the Russian nation.* 

In 2005 Russia's population was 143 million. But it is losing 700,000 people a year. The United Nations estimates that by 2030, the Russian population could go as low as 115 million. That's about one fifth of the population gone in 25 years at a time when countries like China, India, and even the United States are growing in population. 

Russia has big plans for its future, great economic growth in the next 10, 20 years it hopes, but demographics are destiny. I find it hard to believe that the dying nation can also be a growing nation. 

*Source:* Fareed Zakaria's GPS. 

2. So once again Israel is being attacked by rockets; no doubt Iran/Lebanon/Syria are simultaneously involved and I'm sure provoking them just to elicit an aggressive retaliatory response to shift the world focus & blame on Israel, as always. 

In Egypt, though early enough, guess who's leading in the votes? What a surprise.


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. In 2005 Russia's population was 143 million. But it is losing 700,000 people a year. The United Nations estimates that by 2030, the Russian population could go as low as 115 million.
> 2. So once again Israel is being attacked by rockets; no doubt Iran/Lebanon/Syria are simultaneously involved and I'm sure provoking them just to elicit an aggressive retaliatory response to shift the world focus & blame on Israel, as always.
> 
> In Egypt, though early enough, guess who's leading in the votes? What a surprise.


1. You cannot blame vodka for population decline. Yes, it's an issue, but there are other reasons like: - huge immigration (go to North York - you won't need English )
- very bad ecology
Also just wanted to note, Russian people becomes richier and richier, many 5 starts resort at Caribbean are exploded wtih Russian tourist, and every year their number growing. 

2. Now Darius will come and tell that Israel caused all world problem 

P.S> I didn't follow Egypt recently...but IMHO any free election in any arab or muslim country will bring to power Islamic brother or similar exremist party.


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> 1. You cannot blame vodka for population decline.
> 
> 2. any free election in any arab or muslim country will bring to power Islamic brother or similar exremist party.


1. Not the only, but indeed a key factor for 'the incredible shrinking people'.

"Alexander Nemtsov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Psychiatry, points to a *clear correlation between the death rate and the consumption of alcohol in Russia."*

http://www.economist.com/node/12627956

2. What Israel feared & had said all along, and of course, gotten criticized for saying so.


----------



## Rommel

I <3 larry81's humor and tgal's wisdom.


----------



## KaeJS

One step closer to $0/share today.

Wow, guys. This one is really burning a hole in my wallet.


----------



## larry81

quarterly dividend was today, 11cent/share


----------



## KaeJS

Nice. I'll take my $11.00.


----------



## larry81

Iran is getting hot...

talk about oil embargo... drone shootout...

should be interesting for SU holder


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Iran is getting hot...
> 
> talk about oil embargo... drone shootout...
> 
> should be interesting for SU holder


I knew this post was coming.


----------



## Jungle

They're saying oil will go to $240 if Iran is cut off? That would distroy the recovery.


----------



## KaeJS

I think $240 is a bit excessive. Don't you?


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I think $240 is a bit excessive. Don't you?


Price of the oil will go up (in this scenario), but when it will be danger to economy, embargo simply can be stopped or partially stopped. (US will find reason why and will convince Brits to do the same), countries like China and India most likely wouldn't like to do any embaro....also Iranians are not so stupid...compromiss will be found, but oil companies can greatly benfit from all this


----------



## larry81

Seen on another forum:



> Company still buying back stock, oil staying higher, Europe may resolve, DOW holding, and heck...its Christmas too. SU is solid play for the long term


Its Christmas !!!


----------



## Causalien

This is when you take a hard look at yourself because most of us who are invested in oil will have this little devil in us saying "I wish Iran goes to war with Israel so my stocks will go up."

For those of you who can't bear the mind **** of your conscious. Buy TSLA. Buy a future without war for oil.

Excuse me for promoting my own star stock. I have yours and my own self interest in this


----------



## Toronto.gal

Causalien said:


> This is when you take a hard look at yourself because most of us who are invested in oil will have this little devil in us saying "I wish Iran goes to war with Israel so my stocks will go up."


Nope, that's hardly what I think/want.

While one's oil shares would go up, what would happen to the rest of the portfolio? Not everyone here has $100K in a single oil stock.

But for many other obvious reasons, a war is not what most of us want.

Congrats on TESLA!


----------



## larry81

Good piece of info posted two days ago in the globe :


----------



## Causalien

Toronto.Gal

If in the future you find your conscious bothers you while trading Oil. Remember, TSLA.


----------



## KaeJS

Causalien, you're hilarious.

And, I have that little devil inside of me.

He knocks on the door sometimes.

I am not a buyer of TSLA, though.


----------



## Causalien

Just playing with some sales pitch. I need to get better at it for my business.


----------



## Abha

Causalien said:


> Just playing with some sales pitch. I need to get better at it for my business.


You're in the auto industry?

How are sales of electric vehicles compared to fuel cars in this economic climate?


----------



## dogleg

This thread has generated some sadly amusing posts. The world of oil is ever- changing. Here are some recent facts to ponder: Imported energy fell to 49% of the total for sources outside North America in 2010, down from 60% in 2005. New oil off Norway and Brazil are being developed by Statoil and Petrobras. The Norway field is said to hold over 1.5 billion barrels and is only one of five off Norway. Also Sasol of S. Africa is planning a 10 billion plant in Louisiana to convert natural gas into a form of diesel fuel. Natural gas is becoming abundant around the world with reserves that would last 100 years at current consumption rates and the cost has dropped from $13 per million BTU in 2008 to its current $3.42. Libyan oil production will likely be back up to about 700 000 bls /dy this winter from zero in August and OPEC has cut its demand forecasts for four months in a row. Oil investor beware - or at least be informed.


----------



## webber22

You failed to mention the controversy with gas fracking, quakes and ground water contamination. Wait till the occupiers get a hold of that, oil could be headed back to $150


----------



## Xoron

*Suncor to suspend operations in Syria*

Just saw this on Thestar.com

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1100336--suncor-to-suspend-operations-in-syria?bn=1

This news might negatively affect prices when prices open on Monday


----------



## dogleg

webber22 said:


> You failed to mention the controversy with gas fracking, quakes and ground water contamination. Wait till the occupiers get a hold of that, oil could be headed back to $150


I agree there is a need for more regulation but properly done there is no more need for problems than with any other industry. An MIT study found only 50 incidents across the US from 2005 to 2009 from a variety of mishaps mainly on the surface and very few of contamination of ground water due to the deep pipes. The Dimrock. Pa . debacle was the worst but that company was a bunch of cowboys. There can be methane in ground water without fracking. We had a property on an island in Lake Huron where we could light the water on fire and there was no fracking there .


----------



## dogleg

Since I started this thread two or three months ago a lot of things have changed. Now the posters who had all the answers a few weeks ago are suddenly silent - and properly so . The market is a cruel beast and those who refuse to realize it do so at their own peril. Even 'essential' commodities like oil have their own limitations and even one new deposit discovered or a shift towards gas or a scientific breakthrough can change everything overnight. Cheers.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

dogleg said:


> Since I started this thread two or three months ago a lot of things have changed. Now the posters who had all the answers a few weeks ago are suddenly silent - and properly so . The market is a cruel beast and those who refuse to realize it do so at their own peril. Even 'essential' commodities like oil have their own limitations and even one new deposit discovered or a shift towards gas or a scientific breakthrough can change everything overnight. Cheers.


That "cheers" at the end of your post seems so warm and friendly. 

Sold my shares for a small gain a couple of weeks ago but not gloating about it or pointing a sharp stick at others.


----------



## dogleg

Ihatetaxes: Sorry you took it the wrong way. But I have consistently posted cautions only to be insulted by some of the self-proclaimed experts on this thread whom I expect you know . I don't wish anyone bad luck; There is plenty to go around. Cheers.


----------



## larry81

I am crying lolololo 

return = risk

cant live with risk ? invest in gic !


----------



## hboy43

dogleg said:


> Since I started this thread two or three months ago a lot of things have changed. Now the posters who had all the answers a few weeks ago are suddenly silent - and properly so . The market is a cruel beast and those who refuse to realize it do so at their own peril. Even 'essential' commodities like oil have their own limitations and even one new deposit discovered or a shift towards gas or a scientific breakthrough can change everything overnight. Cheers.


What has changed? The world is uncertain and stock prices vary. I don't see any change here.

I never claimed to have all the answers, I was just pointing out that securities should be purchased when prices are low and sold when they are high. I stand here saying the same today. I am neither silent not "properly so". I still own 1900 SU. I expect I'll be a buyer again at $20 and a seller at $40

Yours, (still) retired,

hboy43


----------



## KaeJS

I haven't sold. Probably not going to, either.

I've got a long time horizon, and if SU is around $25-30, its on the cheaper side of things.

Company is *still making money.*

Plus, the stock has a beta of 1.4, so it's not exactly the most stable of stocks. It fluctuates often. This is something that should be taken into consideration.

Regardless of what some people say, oil is not going anywhere.


----------



## larry81

Who is still holding ?

I am


----------



## gibor365

larry81 said:


> Who is still holding ?
> 
> I am


I sold some small portion couple of months ago, still holding about 200 shares


----------



## KaeJS

Still holding 100.


----------



## Jungle

Holding here along with cos.


----------



## Rommel

I sold for a profit....

until I build up more capital for a long term venture where I can better shield against drops...


----------



## marina628

still holding 100 that i paid $30.31 for ,will see what is going on next week when i get back to Canada.I will probably sell it and use the money to fund my RSP ,it was purchased in a non registered account.


----------



## Uranium101

marina628 said:


> still holding 100 that i paid $30.31 for ,will see what is going on next week when i get back to Canada.I will probably sell it and use the money to fund my RSP ,it was purchased in a non registered account.


Just request a transfer position. You save the transaction fee.



Jungle said:


> Holding here along with cos.


Wtf? I am holding Oil Sands like CVE, SU, and COS.
I am a bull in this cheap field of oil.


----------



## larry81




----------



## Toronto.gal

Holding until $45 Larry? 

I only held to 1/2 of the shares I purchased back in September at $25+; I used the rest to trade other stocks. 

You have got patience!


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> Holding until $45 Larry?
> 
> I only held to 1/2 of the shares I purchased back in September at $25+; I used the rest to trade other stocks.
> 
> You have got patience!


I am  (waiting for $45) - have shares that i bought last spring for about $40 

Just checked my tranactions....
The portion that I bought back in Sept for 26.25 I sold with gain of ~19%, from this sell I both LNV that sold with gain just above 7%, and from proceeds bought EGL.UN where I'm so far in gain of 2% .... If I'd just keep this potion of SU , I'd have exactly the same gain  whatever....


----------



## Toronto.gal

Well gibor, if you bought at $40, then I'm glad you're waiting for $45. 

I'm waiting for $70 [it was that price back in May/08; I'm patient too]. 

I traded numerous times various other stocks with 1/2 the capital I got back from SU; maybe around 20x in 2.5 months [did not result in 40 commission fees however].

I trade & move money around so often that I normally can't be bothered figuring out exact percentages. The only thing that matters to me is achieving my overall quarterly goal.


----------



## larry81

Very good article posted today about SU value:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/320385-suncor-energy-has-at-least-46-upside-potential?source=yahoo


----------



## Ihatetaxes

That article has me thinking I should buy back in! Thanks for posting.


----------



## larry81

when i sell, i will purchase a Hummer with a SUNCOR frontpate

JK !!!


----------



## Jungle

Thxsuncor
:d


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I guess I own quite a few shares already since my largest holding across all accounts is XIU which holds 4.87% Suncor.


----------



## newbi

bought @ 24.99.. .only 50 shares.. hitting myself right now!


----------



## KaeJS

newbi said:


> bought @ 24.99.. .only 50 shares.. hitting myself right now!


At least you bought.

I bought 50 shares of MT a while back at $17.85 and was going to buy 300 when it hit $16 and I never did.

I am hitting myself, too...


----------



## larry81

*Suncor Energy stock enters period of seasonal strength*

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...s-period-of-seasonal-strength/article2309411/


----------



## larry81

*http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...an-bank-asset-freeze-over-nuclear-effort.html*

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...an-bank-asset-freeze-over-nuclear-effort.html

good news for canada oil export !


----------



## KaeJS

Good news for oil stock owners, no?


----------



## larry81

34.80 as i write this, hohoho


----------



## marina628

I am off the suncor ride ,good luck to the rest of you


----------



## larry81

*Iran Set to Turn Off Oil Supply to Europe*


> The European Union embargo on Iranian oil will only come into effect in six months, but the leadership in Tehran wants to act first: Exports to Europe are set to be halted immediately. It is a move which could mean added difficulties for struggling economies in southern Europe.
> http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,811507,00.html


lol, go iran go !


----------



## larry81

SU earnings this week !


----------



## KaeJS

So... Does this mean you're buying another 3600 shares?



I am waiting for the earnings release, too. 

Larry, you're either going to be a really happy man, or a really angry one after those earnings. Let's hope it's not angry.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> So... Does this mean you're buying another 3600 shares?
> 
> 
> 
> I am waiting for the earnings release, too.
> 
> Larry, you're either going to be a really happy man, or a really angry one after those earnings. Let's hope it's not angry.


I am prepared for both !


----------



## larry81

*Oil producers expected to post strong Q4 profits*


> Financial report cards starting this week will show the good times continued to roll for Calgary's crude-oil producers in the fourth quarter of 2011, analysts say.
> 
> Reporting season kicks off Tuesday with heavy-oil producer and fuel refiner Imperial Oil Ltd., followed through the week by oilsands producers including Suncor Energy Inc., Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. and much-praised thermal oilsands newcomer MEG Energy Corp.
> 
> Analysts say oil-producer coffers will be swollen as the near-month price for New York-traded bench-mark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaged $93.82 US per barrel during the three-month period ended Dec. 31, up 10 per cent from the same period in 2010.
> 
> http://www.calgaryherald.com/busine...rong+profits/6066600/story.html#ixzz1kyrEYhWX


----------



## gibor365

larry81 said:


> I am prepared for both !


So you have enough vodka


----------



## webber22

Every time there's a post in this thread the stock goes down


----------



## newbie

webber22 said:


> Every time there's a post in this thread the stock goes down


well
that was deffinitely funny


----------



## BRS9

So what are the predictions? Will it blow away in the results tonight and gap up for tomorrow? 

What do you guys think?


----------



## Jungle

Well Exxon missed expectation today and IMO posted second highest yearly profit ever and raised dividend. 

I hope it beats and raises dividend.


----------



## newbie

BRS9 said:


> So what are the predictions? Will it blow away in the results tonight and gap up for tomorrow?
> 
> What do you guys think?


hold on ....
just a sec....


----------



## larry81

8:00 pm


----------



## Toronto.gal

newbie said:


> hold on ....
> Just a sec....


lol.


----------



## larry81

> Suncor Energy Inc. recorded fourth quarter 2011 net earnings of $1.427 billion ($0.91 per common share), compared to net earnings of $1.286 billion ($0.82 per common share) for the fourth quarter of 2010. Operating earnings, which adjusts net earnings for significant items that are not indicative of operating performance, increased to $1.427 billion ($0.91 per common share) in the fourth quarter of 2011 from $808 million ($0.52 per common share) in the fourth quarter of 2010.


Estimated EPS was 0.90


----------



## ibex

So I added to my position yesterday and the earnings report translates to? Again still new to the earnings reports as this would be the second one for me.


----------



## larry81

ibex said:


> So I added to my position yesterday and the earnings report translates to? Again still new to the earnings reports as this would be the second one for me.


The report translate to BLEH, decrease in production (thank you Syria!). EPS in line with analyst prediction. Profit up 10 pct because oil prices

I dont expect any big move tommorow, maybe even little negative sentiment but thats just my opinion (aka: not even worth 2cent)

Still holding


----------



## Uranium101

look at their free cash flow


----------



## webber22

This is the actual code running on the trading bots:

If Suncor 

If (x == MeetsEstimates)
{
WeSoldEverythingYesterday;
CollectBonuses;
PriceWillDropByItself;
}
else

If (x == ExceedsEstimates)
If ByOneCent
YahRight;
MakeSureNotNortelAuditors;
MakeSureNotMFGlobalAuditors;
MaybeBerniePonzi;
WeSoldEverythingYesterday;
CollectBonuses;
PriceWillDropByItself;
else
{
WeSoldEverythingYesterday;
CollectBonuses;
DropPriceToLookGood
} 
else

If (x == MissedEstimates)
{
THANKGOD_WeSoldEverythingYesterday;
ThankGoldman;
CollectBonuses;
HoldOnTight;
PriceWillDropByItself;
}

CheckWhenPriceHasTankedEnough;
If (y == TankedEnough)
{BuySunor}


----------



## KaeJS

Beat estimates by one cent. That's a close shave.


----------



## ibex

Just so I'm getting this right, meet or exceed expectations means status quo even if you are earning 10% more, and if you equal or don't meet expectations you get decimated?


----------



## Jungle

It's possible. For example of prime market lunatics, look at the latest CNR results. Beats estimates, profit up some 20% or so. Dividend INCREASED by 15%! Wow right? 

Shares tank upon open, because the 1 year guidance (or profit forecast) was lowered more than expected.


----------



## larry81

Jungle said:


> It's possible. For example of prime market lunatics, look at the latest CNR results. Beats estimates, profit up some 20% or so. Dividend INCREASED by 15%! Wow right?
> 
> Shares tank upon open, because the 1 year guidance (or profit forecast) was lowered more than expected.


yes but as Uranium101 said, free cash flow increased 20% !

tough call !

edit: Pre-Market: 34.95 0.45 (1.30%) 7:05AM EST


----------



## ibex

I'm assuming the +1.8% to -0.75% turn around today was due to the fact that Suncor didn't increase their dividend?


----------



## newbie

larry81 said:


> yes but as Uranium101 said, free cash flow increased 20% !
> 
> tough call !
> 
> edit: Pre-Market: 34.95 0.45 (1.30%) 7:05AM EST


another one that called me a genius lol
and the stock went back to 34.2.
the other one expecting for it to gap up.
that is what i mean by being wrong.
so what is it going to happen now genius?
is it going to 45 bux?
last post for u also genius


----------



## larry81

newbie said:


> another one that called me a genius lol
> and the stock went back to 34.2.
> the other one expecting for it to gap up.
> that is what i mean by being wrong.
> so what is it going to happen now genius?
> is it going to 45 bux?
> last post for u also genius


i am no forecast teller but you missed the previous post



> "I dont expect any big move tommorow, maybe even little negative sentiment but thats just my opinion (aka: not even worth 2cent)"


Since you probably didnt bother reading the thread, let me show you why i have interest in Suncor and why a .50cent increase/decrease dont bother me at all:










If you need any help investing your mommy allowance, dont hesitate to ask !


----------



## Jungle

larry cashed out and picked me up in the hummer he purchased with the profit. We drove around downtown toronto last sat at 3am to pick up chicks. He put a stereo system in that too. He changed the engine to run off natual gas. So much for gas guzzler. 

I'm still holding


----------



## larry81

Jungle said:


> larry cashed out and picked me up in the hummer he purchased with the profit. We drove around downtown toronto last sat at 3am to pick up chicks. He put a stereo system in that too. He changed the engine to run off natual gas. So much for gas guzzler.
> 
> I'm still holding


I am not selling !


----------



## Med

larry81 said:


> i am no forecast teller but you missed the previous post
> 
> 
> 
> Since you probably didnt bother reading the thread, let me show you why i have interest in Suncor and why a .50cent increase/decrease dont bother me at all:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If you need any help investing your mommy allowance, dont hesitate to ask !


Respect!


----------



## Cal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...suncors-long-awaited-recovery/article2325465/


----------



## Uranium101

larry81 said:


> I am not selling !


Nice one larry, I got some at $27 though.
How did you get in at such low level?
My next round of purchase was set at $25 as a matter of fact. It never got filled.

Technical indicators?


----------



## newbi

obviously not as rich as larry since that's impossible.. i did manage to get in 100 shares of SU lower  (still holding...)


----------



## Jungle

They are talking about where is suncor's return? Is it not up about 40% since the bottom in OCt? 

How much do they want? $60/share.


----------



## Uranium101

i like the management team. love tuning into their conference calls. they disclose a lot of company info.


----------



## larry81

newbi said:


> obviously not as rich as larry since that's impossible.. i did manage to get in 100 shares of SU lower  (still holding...)



Very good entry point (the 52W low is 23.97 !!!), i hope you enjoy the ride


----------



## larry81

Go Iran Go !


----------



## KaeJS

Damn, I should have bought more.

I bought at $28.75 and was scared it might hit $25.00.

Apparently I didn't buy (enough) when people scared and there's blood in the streets


----------



## hboy43

KaeJS said:


> Apparently I didn't buy (enough) when people scared and there's blood in the streets


Yes, a problem of many (most?) investors: it is one thing to know that you should buy then, another all together to actually do it. Any ideas on how you might bridge the gap next time?

hboy43


----------



## larry81

I am happy


----------



## KaeJS

Me too.

23.69% Return since September 27. 

larry, you should have told me to go get a loan and bet $60k on it so I could buy a new car.  Where was my slap across the face?


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> Me too.
> 
> 23.69% Return since September 27.
> 
> larry, you should have told me to go get a loan and bet $60k on it so I could buy a new car.  Where was my slap across the face?


As a SU owner, i wish you could buy a dozen new cars !


----------



## blin10

it's above all moving averages on the weekly, if markets don't sink it can easily make it to $40 where major resistance is..


----------



## KaeJS

$40 would make me very happy. It would make larry euphoric.


----------



## larry81

SU going crazy...


----------



## Jungle

Up 42.2%!! 

Larry are you picking me up again in your Hummer? Any room for Kaejs in the back? lol


----------



## Jungle

I purpose with our profits we start a business. Larry will be the CEO, I will be CFO and KaeJs will be in charge of sales and marketing. We just need a product..

I am feeling optimistic because I'm reading Steve Job's biography.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Jungle said:


> I purpose with our profits we start a business. Larry will be the CEO, I will be CFO and KaeJs will be in charge of sales and marketing.


I strongly recommend Belguy as the Chief Risk Management Officer.


----------



## newbi

Jungle said:


> I purpose with our profits we start a business. Larry will be the CEO, I will be CFO and KaeJs will be in charge of sales and marketing. We just need a product..
> 
> I am feeling optimistic because I'm reading Steve Job's biography.


hey count me in too!


----------



## sensfan15

newbi said:


> hey count me in too!



I suppose a janitor will be needed.


----------



## mgr1397

sensfan15 said:


> I suppose a janitor will be needed.


lol!


----------



## Jungle

HaroldCrump said:


> I strongly recommend Belguy as the Chief Risk Management Officer.


Oh my... how can he work under the bed? 

lol @ janitor


----------



## larry81

lol @ this thread 

This is the triumph of the optimists (plus a little sprinkle of market timing) !

I am currently pondering the idea of taking another concentrated position on natural gaz for a mid-long hold period.

Also, is there any ETF for booze, drugs and hookers ?


----------



## leoc2

larry81 said:


> lol @ this thread
> 
> This is the triumph of the optimists (plus a little sprinkle of market timing) !
> 
> I am currently pondering the idea of taking another concentrated position on natural gaz for a mid-long hold period.
> 
> Also, is there any ETF for booze, drugs and hookers ?


Join me with Encana !!! Give it the midas emmm emmm the Larry touch.


----------



## stephenheath

larry81 said:


> I am currently pondering the idea of taking another concentrated position on natural gaz for a mid-long hold period.


Please do, I backed the truck up on energy companies with partial-full natural gas production and while they're doing good now, if you give them the larry touch I could probably retire a few years earlier!


----------



## ddkay

larry GAZ != Natural Gas, even though that is the futures product this ETN is supposed to track. It has huge tracking error right now: http://www.greenfaucet.com/sector-etfs/strange-times-for-the-natural-gas-etn-gaz/52150

These ETPs are never designed for mid-long hold periods, they are for short term holds--apparently you knew well enough to scold people a few months ago but now the knowledge has escaped you.

These are the real NG daily close prices for the past 22 years:


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> larry GAZ != Natural Gas, even though that is the futures product this ETN is supposed to track. It has huge tracking error right now: http://www.greenfaucet.com/sector-etfs/strange-times-for-the-natural-gas-etn-gaz/52150
> 
> These ETPs are never designed for mid-long hold periods, they are for short term holds--apparently you knew well enough to scold people a few months ago but now the knowledge has escaped you.
> [/IMG]


Thanks for the advice ddkay, i am not sure the NAV is still trading at such premium but your knowledge of toxic investment vehicle might have saved me from a costly mistake !

Do you know a better vehicle to get exposed to natural gas ?


----------



## webber22

larry81 said:


> ...... Do you know a better vehicle to get exposed to natural gas ?



Sorry but I couldn't hold this one back, Try Here


----------



## ddkay

@webber22 that's nasty

The only way to get pure exposure to NG spot price is store LNG tanks in your back yard at no cost, or get close to spot by holding a position in front month futures and do continuous positive yield rollovers every 3 months.

Either way you would need a futures broker with access to NYMEX, the product code is going to be NG or NGH2 depending on their platform. If you want to store it just don't roll over and you'll get 10,000 mmBtu per contract delivered to your house. LOL jk you get a note with the nearest storage facility and permission to take it home.

Alternatively you could find a managed futures fund that only handle natural gas. I don't know of any..


----------



## larry81

WTI at 108 !!!

SU at 40 ?


----------



## hboy43

larry81 said:


> WTI at 108 !!!
> 
> SU at 40 ?


If it gets there, I will have to look at selling 500 shares. Then I will be back to the same number of shares (within 16) I held 1.5 years ago, plus I will have generated about $10,000. Not bad for a 1/2 hour of work on two buys and two sells.

hboy43


----------



## larry81

hboy43 said:


> If it gets there, I will have to look at selling 500 shares. Then I will be back to the same number of shares (within 16) I held 1.5 years ago, plus I will have generated about $10,000. Not bad for a 1/2 hour of work on two buys and two sells.
> 
> hboy43


it takes money to make money


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> @webber22 that's nasty
> 
> The only way to get pure exposure to NG spot price is store LNG tanks in your back yard at no cost, or get close to spot by holding a position in front month futures and do continuous positive yield rollovers every 3 months.
> 
> Either way you would need a futures broker with access to NYMEX, the product code is going to be NG or NGH2 depending on their platform. If you want to store it just don't roll over and you'll get 10,000 mmBtu per contract delivered to your house. LOL jk you get a note with the nearest storage facility and permission to take it home.
> 
> Alternatively you could find a managed futures fund that only handle natural gas. I don't know of any..


very practical and down-to-earth information dday...


----------



## dogleg

ddkay: The global natural gas market would, I think, suggest caution . Even though there is enormous activity in shale gas exploration and technology until there is an infrastructure for automobiles it is likely a long-term game. Russia has huge gas reserves in the Yamal Peninsula which possesses about 20% of global availability. It can supply the EU market for 72 years and represents 85% of Russia's gas output. Companies like BHP who are becoming huge in the fracking game in North America are thinking in terms of a 30 year time horizon. Even LNG now in Europe is only around $10 per thousand cubic feet. To each his own but for me it is buyer beware.


----------



## gibor365

Suncor is sinking again... thinking to buy at low $32's


----------



## ddkay

Since this thread popped up again

larry I hope you aren't hiding in GAZ.. same story as TVIX - a house of cards waiting to collapse


----------



## gibor365

ddkay said:


> Since this thread popped up again
> 
> larry I hope you aren't hiding in GAZ.. same story as TVIX - a house of cards waiting to collapse


it's wierd why TVIX 30% down , when XIV is 4% up


----------



## Jungle

Larry only bumps this thead when Suncor is climbing.


----------



## Med

Is there a chance we will see SU under 30$ again soon?


----------



## emperor

I think it will drop, Suncor's oil sands plant is falling apart. Huge repair bills are coming in, frac tower down, coker down, issue with two or 3 furnaces. Their production is down 140,000 barrels per day.


----------



## KaeJS

So.... I'm holding an $800 loss on this one.

What's the deal?

Who's selling/buying. Why or why not?

And where the flock is larry?


----------



## Toronto.gal

I bought today as the price drop was greater than what I had expected and I'm prepared to buy more if necessary.


----------



## larry81

I am here folks, still holding with the smile 

Always looking for more bargains !


----------



## Jungle

Yup just needs to come down $4 or more and I will load more.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> Yup just needs to come down $4 or more and I will load more.


This can't happen or S will hit the fan in my portfolio.

I currently hold 300 at an ACB of $33. Ouch.

I'd buy more at $26....... but I'd really like to avoid that.


----------



## Jungle

If anything just hold out, this will go back up at some point.


----------



## KaeJS

^ This is true, but my margin interest will add up quick.


----------



## webber22

The announced share buybacks were well timed with the unplanned 5 week maintenance. Buying back cheap shares well into the second quarter, with high short interest keeping the stock low. There's no doubt management has options opened and is screwing the shareholder once again. High oil inventories aren't helping either.

The first quarter results are already in, this is why the stock has tanked, with March production very low http://www.suncor.com/en/investor/3897.aspx


----------



## KaeJS

Added some more today.

Brought down my ACB to $31.665.

This stock was at $33 just 5 days ago.

Was at $37 6 weeks ago. :eek2:


----------



## Toronto.gal

$25, 6 months ago! A trader's dream stock since!


----------



## Knight Rider

Broke under $30 again, now $29.93. Gotta wonder how low this is gonna go.


----------



## Med

Time to load up some more soon! :encouragement:


----------



## Belguy

Suncor found guilty of price fixing, fined:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...pleads-guilty-to-price-fixing/article2401675/

Gee, I wonder if we can trust their financial statements??


----------



## ghayoor

Toronto.gal said:


> Lol Kim, neither can I [I adore Daniel Craig, been crazy about him since I first laid eyes on him in the movie Munich].
> 
> So now we know KaeJS likes brunettes, no wonder he's smart, just kidding!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I have been accumulating SU shares since 2009 and just last week averaged down again. I have no doubt the stock will quadruple [eventually]
> 
> 
> 
> .
Click to expand...

I am agree it will!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

*Ghayoor* - you quoted such an old post, but I'll clarify that by 'eventually', I meant a very long-term! In the last few months, this stock has given many opportunities to accumulate as well as trade. 

Welcome to the forum!


----------



## webber22

"CIBC’s top pick, Suncor, is also expected to beat consensus by approximately 5% and may announce a 20%-to-30% dividend hike (May 1st) on top of its current $2-billion share buyback"

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/19/a-quarter-of-discounts-price-collapses/?__lsa=37326c80


----------



## Knight Rider

webber22 said:


> "CIBC’s top pick, Suncor, is also expected to beat consensus by approximately 5% and may announce a 20%-to-30% dividend hike (May 1st) on top of its current $2-billion share buyback"
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/19/a-quarter-of-discounts-price-collapses/?__lsa=37326c80


Thanks for posting. I hope that's true!


----------



## KaeJS

I hope so, too!


----------



## Jungle

I feel warm and fuzzy when companies buy back shares, increase profits and hike dividend 30%!!
Let's see if that happens..


----------



## KaeJS

Why did Suncor drop on Friday? It had a spike and then it tanked?

I can't find any news... 

It's peers in the industry didn't drop as much, or even drop at all.


----------



## KaeJS

So,

Suncor is releasing earnings on Monday.

I say it misses. Anyone else?


----------



## larry81

Waiting for earnings too , will keep holding whatever the results 

Would be great if the rise the dividends payout !


----------



## KaeJS

I might sell before the earnings.

I can't afford that kind of risk.


----------



## indexxx

What are people's thoughts about Suncor's earnings report tomorrow- yay or nay?


----------



## Jon_Snow

Since I don't own any SU I hope earnings are awful.... in the resulting carnage I might buy some. :tongue-new:


----------



## larry81

indexxx said:


> What are people's thoughts about Suncor's earnings report tomorrow- yay or nay?


Not sure, one upgrader was shutdown for a couple weeks... but Libya production is back in he numbers 

should be interesting !


----------



## Jungle

Didn't chevron an exxon miss? husky beat, about time that stock can be a dawwg. cos reports tomorrow too.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Jon_Snow said:


> Since I don't own any SU I hope earnings are awful.... in the resulting carnage I might buy some.


There won't be a carnage.
At least not enough to bring the stock down to $26.
If you wanted to buy Suncor, why didn't you buy when it was $26 (and below) as per the title of this thread?


----------



## indexxx

HaroldCrump said:


> There won't be a carnage.
> At least not enough to bring the stock down to $26.
> If you wanted to buy Suncor, why didn't you buy when it was $26 (and below) as per the title of this thread?


I was not yet a member of this forum at that time, so had not seen that post. And my money was busy with other things.


----------



## KaeJS

I sold all of my SU at $31.72 just now.

This could have been a very dumb or very smart move. We will find out tonight when the earnings come out.

600 shares was just too much risk for me.

And to everyone on the forum who follows, I am officially "Margin Free!" :biggrin:


----------



## HaroldCrump

indexxx said:


> I was not yet a member of this forum at that time, so had not seen that post. And my money was busy with other things.


LOL, my post was not directed at you.
Darn the no quote police, it's sometimes hard to figure out who is talking to who


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I just "accidentally" sold my SU shares for $32 even this morning as I forgot I had put a sell order in last week pushing the date out a week which I normally never do but it didn't look like $32 was in the realm of possibility last week. Oh well, 7.7% profit in 20 days is nothing to complain about I suppose but its a good lesson on setting a sell order with a longer sell by date.


----------



## Jungle

Suncor reports tomorrow, I hope it misses so I can buy more shares!!


----------



## larry81

TSE:SU up almost 3.5%...

Posted on the Yahoo loser board:



> A day before earnings and the stock is up a couple percentage points? Someone knows something. I sure hope the SEC actually tracks who is doing the trading this time. It can't be that hard to figure out who is getting inside information.
> 
> That said, it looks like we might be in for some great news tomorrow. I'm glad I already own


----------



## KaeJS

Apparently I sold too early.

Let's see how the earnings go.

Man, that makes me angry! :mad2: 

Could've been $600 richer!


----------



## Assetologist

Wow! You've gotta curb the emotions - they really don't mix well with investing. 

I can assure you I have learned this the hard way and it's something we all need to control. 

Think 'cold-blooded, white-hot' investing machine and control the green and red!

There will always be more opportunities to make money but I believe the most important lessons teach one how they, as an individual, best fit into the marketplace (or not).

Good luck.


----------



## Knight Rider

Suncor just increased their dividend by 18.18% (11 cents to 13 cents).


----------



## larry81

Tommorow should be interesting !

I missed a great CHK opportunity waiting for DLR/DLR.u conversion... oh snap !


----------



## KaeJS

Knight Rider said:


> Suncor just increased their dividend by 18.18% (11 cents to 13 cents).


The question is....

Did they raise it because they killed earnings?

OR

Did they raise it because they flopped earnings?


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> The question is....


They always raise their div. at this period of the year


----------



## KaeJS

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/suncor-energy-reports-2012-first-quarter-results-2012-04-30


----------



## larry81

*Suncor Energy recorded first quarter 2012 net earnings of $1.457 billion ($0.93 per common share)*

BOOYA !


----------



## KaeJS

Congratulations to everyone who owns!

I think I made a mistake. LOL!


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Glad I own a ton of xiu (4.59% Suncor) but damn that sale at $32 today. Good luck tomorrow Larry!


----------



## Knight Rider

Glad I kept my 200 shares. Wish I owned more right now, getting killed on G, but SU is making up for it in part.


----------



## thebomb

Yay!  about 2 weeks ago I bought my first ever shares. I chose Suncor as my first foray into the world of stocks. Looks like I should be glad I did.


----------



## londoncalling

KaeJS said:


> I am officially "Margin Free!" :biggrin:


Congrats Kaejs! That is a huge accomplishment. I think things will be much easier for you with the margin monkey off your back. Things become so much clearer without the need to worry about a margin call. On the flip side the potential payouts are lower but from my understanding the less worry the clearer the mind.

Cheers!


----------



## gibor365

londoncalling said:


> Congrats Kaejs! That is a huge accomplishment.
> 
> Cheers!


yeap! and now he can buy SU as a long term holding


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> I think I made a mistake. LOL!


You think? :biggrin:

Too bad you cashed out completely, but you're margin free and that is the best news of all [even when I know you're not a happy camper right now].


----------



## newbi

KaeJS said:


> I sold all of my SU at $31.72 just now.
> 
> This could have been a very dumb or very smart move. We will find out tonight when the earnings come out.
> 
> 600 shares was just too much risk for me.
> 
> And to everyone on the forum who follows, *I am officially "Margin Free!"* :biggrin:


Congrats KS!! i am happy for you  a sign of getting old perhaps? j/k


----------



## Jungle

I love the dividend increases. Also hold COS, what a day for that too. 17% dividend increase, yield on cost is now over 7%. 
Yield on cost for SU is now over 2%. 

If they keep up this 10-20% dividend increase, the pay outs will double in no time for patient investors who sit and hold tight.


----------



## ibex

can someone explain why if Suncor increased dividends and beat estimates by a decent margin the stock is down 4% in 2 days afterwards? Secondly, what would happen if they actually missed estimates? With this analogy the stock would crumble.


----------



## Argonaut

The day-to-day market isn't based on earnings, but rather buyers and sellers. The price of oil is down quite handily today so that is as good of reason as any.


----------



## ddkay

Suncor has peaked around earnings the last 13/15 times


----------



## ibex

seriously?


----------



## Jungle

P/e is almost in the 9's now, this just keeps getting better and better.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Bought 200 this morning at 30.18 after selling a few days ago for 32.


----------



## larry81

Its bargain time !


----------



## blin10

larry81 said:


> Its bargain time !


not yet


----------



## Jon_Snow

How low can it go? My TDW account is overflowing with available cash. Missed out on SU when it was $26. Lesson learned. I'm getting in, just of matter of when and how much.


----------



## Belguy

Every bit of bad news becomes another buying opportunity!! Such is the wonderful world of investing!! By the way, what if the world economy just keeps on sinking, as I believe that it will, and takes energy prices down with it. That could postpone the best buying opportunity by a few more years!!! How are things in the land of Oz?


----------



## Jon_Snow

How are things under the bed?

All kidding aside, you could be right on this one.... But so could the talking heads who proclaim DOW 20000 in 3 years. Nobody really has a clue.


----------



## Jungle

There is a new fear in the market about the Europe still having challenges and the US job numbers set stocks back, as they were getting a little ahead (ie us market) 

If oil continues this slide we could see Suncor drop some more, this stock is making a boat load of cash and increasing profits, annual dividend increases could be easily 15-30% over the next few years, I might be doubling or tripling positions if it goes down to $26-27 again. 

Also I would be adding to COS again if dips below $20, P/e in the 9's right now and dividend growth history looks good.


----------



## larry81

posted in this thread a couple months ago:



> Some people will look back at the last few weeks and wonder how come they missed x, y, z opportunity... Then, they will delay stocks purchase's, waiting for the 'next opportunity...and when another 20% dip finally come, they will say blablabla end of the world blablabla double dip yadada and wish they were in gic/hisa.


Belguy pessimism BUY indicator becoming stronger day by day !!!


----------



## ibex

Ok, purchased another 100 shares for 1950 total holding in an rrsp account, should I be buying and selling to take advantage of the dips or just keep adding to position for the longer term? Great discussion by the way where do people hypothetically see his stock 12 24 36 months out, just polling peoples mind set.


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> posted in this thread a couple months ago:
> 
> _*Some people will look back at the last few weeks and wonder how come they missed x, y, z opportunity... Then, they will delay stocks purchase's, waiting for the 'next opportunity...and when another 20% dip finally come, they will say blablabla end of the world blablabla double dip yadada and wish they were in gic/hisa. *_
> 
> Belguy pessimism BUY indicator becoming stronger day by day !!!


ROFL. At that quote posted a few weeks ago. That's downright hilarious.

I am now happy I exited at $31.72.

I can buy in again below $30 in the future. :biggrin:


----------



## Belguy

I'd hold off until it drops below $25 at least!!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

last time it was below 25 bux was at the october low and that is a 3 year low.
u must really believe in a mkt collapse.
that , for sure cannot be good for a retiree:rolleyes2:
oil was 75 bux then during said colapse.
i assure you that if i ever see oil at 75 bux again i will load up my ETF with 75% of my cash available.
95 bux oil is possible though.

i must add that if someone bought .... at 28 and did not sell at 37 bux to buy back lower must have been drinking.
but he what do i know.
cheers


----------



## Jungle

For anyone that missed out, now is when you start watching really close to the markets. Decide what price you want to buy, put a limit order in and realize it could go lower. IE maybe leave some room to make additional purchase if it really drops. 

For me I am looking to double my position under $27-26. 

This stock now has a p/e of 9..


----------



## larry81




----------



## KaeJS

Suddenly, my Sell at $31.72 doesn't look so bad, LOL


----------



## Jon_Snow

How low can it go? Feel like the proverbial kid in a candy store. :biggrin:


----------



## Ihatetaxes

KaeJS said:


> Suddenly, my Sell at $31.72 doesn't look so bad, LOL


The sell price was good but are you buying back now that it's in the bargain bin?


----------



## Kaitlyn

Ihatetaxes said:


> The sell price was good but are you buying back now that it's in the bargain bin?


How come so many of you like Suncor? Growth opportunity may be there... maybe. Dividend is low... what's so enticing?


----------



## fatcat

Jon_Snow said:


> How low can it go? Feel like the proverbial kid in a candy store. :biggrin:


according to this guy, a lot lower ... before it ultimately shoots to the moon ... i swear if i hear one more "expert" i'm gonna go dunk my head in a barrel of light sweet crude and keep it there for about an hour


----------



## Jungle

^^ Be sure to use a snorkel! No bubbles either!


----------



## KaeJS

Ihatetaxes said:


> The sell price was good but are you buying back now that it's in the bargain bin?


I am thinking about it.

I'm just waiting..... and waiting..... lol


----------



## Jungle

Snooze you lose..


----------



## Jon_Snow

Bought 1000 SU yesterday just in case it is close to some sort of bottom... $29 seems like a decent entry point. If this stock continues it's descent, I will buy more - alot more. :chuncky:


----------



## Toronto.gal

You don't sound the same person, lol.

Great buy!


----------



## larry81

Is anyone really thinking that <100$ oil price will be the norm in the future ?

Buy SU <30 and enjoy better than market returns in a few months/years 

ps: some good deals in basic materials and others energy companies too !


----------



## Jungle

Oil down this morning, setting some low ball limit orders for SU and COS.


----------



## killuminati

It went under 28 today... Getting better and better. Might hit the $26 this thread was originally posted on!


----------



## fatcat

this article quotes all the analysts who say it will go to $44 : http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/11/put-your-faith-back-into-analysts/

sure, probably will though it might sink below it's 22.15 low in 2009

what is the old saying "markets will remain irrational longer than you will remain solvent"

it's only a good buy in a world that makes sense


----------



## arc

I think they will crash sub $26 before any sort of recovery


----------



## canibus

Added another 100 shares at 28.10$ today! ACB is at around 27.90 currently.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Bought 1000 shares of SU a couple of weeks ago below $29. Getting a bit greedy now - will back up the brinks truck if it breaches $26 - toying with the idea of another 4000 shares. I know its frowned upon to rely too heavily on one stock, but Suncor is about as high quality as Canadian companies get... I am seriously considering doing this. Then again, COS is tempting with its nice divy.... bargains, bargains, everywhere!


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> I know its frowned upon to rely too heavily on one stock, but Suncor is about as high quality as Canadian companies get... I am seriously considering doing this. Then again, COS is tempting with its nice divy.... bargains, bargains, everywhere!


Frowned upon? That's how you MAKE MONEY.

I'm buying COS tomorrow.

No SU for me. Not because I don't like the stock (i do!!) but I don't have enough money and at least COS pays a better dividend to cover my margin in case I screw up.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Appreciate that post, KaeJS... my problem is that I have too much cash sitting idle, with more accumulating every month, without much conviction or confidence as to what to do with it all. There are worse problems to have, to be sure - but pulling the trigger on any strategy is difficult for me. 

And KaeJS, I thought you were DONE with margin.


----------



## Kaitlyn

Jon_Snow said:


> Appreciate that post, KaeJS... my problem is that I have too much cash sitting idle, with more accumulating every month, without much conviction or confidence as to what to do with it all. There are worse problems to have, to be sure - but pulling the trigger on any strategy is difficult for me.
> 
> And KaeJS, I thought you were DONE with margin.


I wish I had $100k to throw at a stock


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> And KaeJS, I thought you were DONE with margin.


I _was_.

But; there's some good deals out there and I only make $35k/ year! :frown:

This leads to purchasing on margin. Unfortunately.

At least my portfolio is still above water this year. Not everyone can say that. :tongue:


----------



## KaeJS

Where is larry?

Buying 3600 more shares of Suncor?


----------



## Jon_Snow

Don't know about Larry, but I'm toying with the idea of buying another 2000 to 3000 shares. Kinda wish I had loaded up a bit more at $27.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Nice run up to over $30 today. Now keep going!!!!


----------



## Jon_Snow

As an owner of 3000 Suncor shares, most of which were bought recently at around $27, today was a most enjoyable one. :encouragement:


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Good work Jon. What price are you going to hold out to?


----------



## blin10

prolly until it gets back to 25 lol ok I kid



Dopplegangerr said:


> Good work Jon. What price are you going to hold out to?


----------



## Jon_Snow

blin10 said:


> prolly until it gets back to 25 lol ok I kid


I'm okay with it going to $25... I will simply buy more. 

But between friends, I'd prefer that it shoots straight to $40. :biggrin:


----------



## blin10

it will only do that if markets have a major rally and oil gets back to 110, both are doubtful 



Jon_Snow said:


> I'm okay with it going to $25... I will simply buy more.
> 
> But between friends, I'd prefer that it shoots straight to $40. :biggrin:


----------



## KaeJS

I would be a huge seller at $35. Forget $40.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

KaeJS said:


> I would be a huge seller at $35. Forget $40.


+1

No way I could look at 21k profits and not sell


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Not a good day for SU. Ouch!


----------



## Jungle

I know, crazy how much this went down. Hopefully the trend continues!


----------



## KaeJS

Amen!


----------



## Jon_Snow

If I didn't have a large portion of cash available, today's SU butchery would have me alot more ticked off. If this goes to $24 or below I will buy lots more... 3000 shares at $27 was just a beginning, I have a hunch.... if I can buy another 3000 for $24 or dare i say $22, and this stock someday gets back to $38, it will be the ticket to my much sought after early retirement.


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> it will be the ticket to my much sought after early retirement.


..... *cough* and Audi S5 *cough* ......


----------



## Kaitlyn

Jon_Snow said:


> If I didn't have a large portion of cash available, today's SU butchery would have me alot more ticked off. If this goes to $24 or below I will buy lots more... 3000 shares at $27 was just a beginning, I have a hunch.... if I can buy another 3000 for $24 or dare i say $22, and this stock someday gets back to $38, it will be the ticket to my much sought after early retirement.


Yea but is that not EVERY stock? I don't understand what's so... enlightened about this statement? 

"If I can buy it low... or really low... and it goes up a lot - I'll be rich!"


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Kaitlyn said:


> "If I can buy it low... or really low... and it goes up a lot - I'll be rich!"


Until the next market downfall each:


----------



## Belguy

Oil is down 3.9% just today and is on track to have it's worst month in 3 years.

If the world economic situation deteriorates into a full-fledged worldwide recession, do not expect your oil stocks to make you rich anytime soon!!

You may have to be patient for a few YEARS!!:frown:


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Oil is down 3.9% just today and is on track to have it's worst month in 3 years.
> 
> If the world economic situation deteriorates into a full-fledged worldwide recession, do not expect your oil stocks to make you rich anytime soon!!
> 
> You may have to be patient for a few YEARS!!:frown:


Few years is fine....but few decades are bad


----------



## Belguy

But what if you only have a few years and not a few decades?

Oh, to be young again!!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Just turned 40. I can wait this out. 

I hope. :biggrin:


----------



## KaeJS

Oil is not going to continue dropping at the rate it has been.

It's going to settle and everything will be okay.

$30 oil isn't going to happen.


----------



## Cal

^ Same. Oil dropped to this price a year ago and recovered. It will do the same again.


----------



## Belguy

U.S. gasoline price averaged $3.88 per gallon at the first of the year. Today, it is averaging $3.48 a gallon and some are predicting it will drop to $3.00 per gallon by the end of the year.

Of course, some of these are the same ones who were predicting $5.00 per gallon by the summer back just a few short months ago.


----------



## scomac

KaeJS said:


> Oil is not going to continue dropping at the rate it has been.
> 
> It's going to settle and everything will be okay.
> 
> $30 oil isn't going to happen.


That maybe so, but that doesn't change the fact that O&G exploration and production is an extremely capital intensive business to be engaged in. All of the cheap resource plays have been exploited. Current replacement costs are only going to continue to rise placing producers in a cost price squeeze. Have you ever wondered why O&G stocks have been such poor performers despite strong oil prices and even stronger refining margins? They're stuck between a rock and a hard place being forced to replace declining production with ever more costly resources. You won't need $30 oil to effectively turn off the taps on new production as $60 is even insufficient to cover the replacement costs of new finds. They simply don't have the margins to play with and replacing production becomes an all encompassing exercise consuming the vast majority of cash flow.


----------



## Spidey

scomac said:


> That maybe so, but that doesn't change the fact that O&G exploration and production is an extremely capital intensive business to be engaged in. All of the cheap resource plays have been exploited. Current replacement costs are only going to continue to rise placing producers in a cost price squeeze. Have you ever wondered why O&G stocks have been such poor performers despite strong oil prices and even stronger refining margins? They're stuck between a rock and a hard place being forced to replace declining production with ever more costly resources. You won't need $30 oil to effectively turn off the taps on new production as $60 is even insufficient to cover the replacement costs of new finds. They simply don't have the margins to play with and replacing production becomes an all encompassing exercise consuming the vast majority of cash flow.


There is truth to all of that but I still don't know if it justifies current prices. If we look at SU, it's trading at about book value, 4.5-5.0 X cashflow, 8 X forward earnings and has reasonable debt levels.


----------



## scomac

Spidey said:


> There is truth to all of that but I still don't know if it justifies current prices. If we look at SU, it's trading at about book value, 4.5-5.0 X cashflow, 8 X forward earnings and has reasonable debt levels.


I don't know if current prices are justified or not, but if you think about it from my perspective, most major oils are simply a perpetual motion machine with dollars coming in and dollars going out. There is precious little in the way of free cashflow returned to the investor. You can't even really claim that they are growing book value for you because each new barrel of reserves that comes on the balance sheet is being off-set by depreciation of existing reserves as they are produced. In the end, the whole thing is ultimately a bet on the price of crude; which becomes increasingly risk when it is nigh impossible to separate the speculative component of the price from the actual figure that supply/demand would clear at.

I'm still long myself in the O&G space, but I'm beginning to wonder why. In fact, I'm beginning to wonder why I'm long in a lot of spaces that have series fundamental issues to come to grips with (like insurance)


----------



## larry81

I have been holding this stock for more than a year now, my initial position is up +24.5k as i type this:

This might seem great considering that XIC is down -1.96% for the same period but VTI had an even better run-up

Still holding in anticipation of higher oil price and/or iran-israel hostility.


----------



## Toronto.gal

larry81 said:


> I have been holding this stock for more than a year now, my initial position is up +24.5k as i type this:


I must say you surprise me Larry, your patience that is. 

You were up much more at one point [I know because I bought at almost the same price as you did last Fall]. Given the volatility of this past year, you could now be holding a good % of the 3,000 shares you purchased with profit $$, instead of your own capital. 

Hope it all works out great in the end!


----------



## larry81

Toronto.gal said:


> I must say you surprise me Larry, your patience that is.
> 
> You were up much more at one point [I know because I bought at almost the same price as you did last Fall]. Given the volatility of this past year, you could now be holding a good % of the 3,000 shares you purchased with profit $$, instead of your own capital.
> 
> Hope it all works out great in the end!


If only i had a crystal ball


----------



## Toronto.gal

You're exactly right Larry, but who has one of those magical beauties, in working order that is? :tongue-new:

And that's precisely why I don't let a significant profit evaporate anymore [except for AAPL], because the probability is high either way; it's 50/50 as far as I'm concerned. 

I held onto 50% of shares purchased last Sept./2011 @ USD$25.61 and traded the other 50% this past year [mostly swing-trades]. 

Between dividends + a % of profit taking from trades, I have been able to accumulate a decent amount of free stocks on bloody days. For high volume of shares, I find that booking profits on even just 10% of shares can make a dramatic difference, especially over a long period of time when you consider how much X number of shares purchased with dividends/profits could be worth 20 years from now.

Having said the above, I have also missed higher profits by selling a bit too early on some occasions [other stocks], but like you said, that crystal ball was missing.

If you're waiting for a war between Israel & Iran, I would just say not to expect 'Operation Babylon', even when the former is constantly threatened with genocide by the latter's government. There was no Arab Spring back in the 80's, so the situation is very different. As well, that attack had taken place after Iran had first attempted to destroy Iraq's Osirak reactor, but a job that was eventually finished by the Israeli gov.

Btw, did you hear what Biden/Ryan had to say on the matter yesterday? :rolleyes2:


----------



## jcgd

Sorry, very off topic, but...

T.gal, how do you know which way a stock is going to go? I'm not sure how you figure it so it isn't simply fluke. I can understand taking some profits, but how do you buy a stock and swing trade it? Are you using TA or something?

What happens if you buy a stock and take some profits, yet the stock keeps going up so you don't have a chance to buy in lower ever again. That wouldn't be considered a success as you missed out. Would you take profits if you didn't have a better idea of where to put the money?

Your method seems to be working (unless you only mention your good trades with a few somewhat bad ones mixed in) so I'm curious how you set up your trades.


----------



## Toronto.gal

jcgd said:


> 1. how do you know which way a stock is going to go?
> 2. how do you buy a stock and swing trade it? Are you using TA or something?
> 3. What happens if you buy a stock and take some profits, yet the stock keeps going up so you don't have a chance to buy in lower ever again.
> 4. Would you take profits if you didn't have a better idea of where to put the money?
> 5. Your method seems to be working...
> 6. (unless you only mention your good trades with a few somewhat bad ones mixed in)...


1. I don't, but I mostly trade what I hold long-term, so I follow/know the stocks pretty well. 

2. Yes, I use charts & other TA, but I don't completely rely on that. I have done it long enough to have developed an intuition as well as a disciplined & informed approach. 

3. That happens often enough, but I'm not keeping all the returned capital + profits in cash all the time; I reinvest it somewhere else, so while the stock I sold may have gone up, the other I purchased may have gone up even higher; not always, but works when picking the right undervalued stock at the right time. There are always chances to buy again; sure you can't always buy lower or average down, but you can also average up; buy with profits, etc. 

4. Yes, I would depending on the return; not 100% of shares, but a % yes, because: i) I like to buy free shares with it [when shares drop], and ii) there always seems to be something on sale in volatile times.  

5. The method that is working is called volatility.

6. If you mean realized losses, NO, I don't have any that's worth mentioning, just pennies here and there on occasion, but sure, sometimes it takes me weeks to exit a trade. 

I have unrealized losses that I don't mind because those are shares I'm not planning to sell for a long time, and while some are down considerably, guess what, I can DRIP more free shares & trade a higher volume.


----------



## thenegotiator

Suncor short positions 16,273,317 7,387,624 8,885,693 
hello toronto.gal


----------



## gibor365

and what those 3 big numbers mean?


----------



## thenegotiator

the bigger number is the total amount of short positions as of 28/09/12.
there was a substantial increase in short positions.
will the price go a lot lower?
no one knows right?
but big money is sticking their neck out and shorting it.


----------



## Jungle

Still holding small position from Oct 2011 lows.


----------



## gibor365

Isn't it too simple?! If this approach would be even 60% true, you would become Billionaire in no time


----------



## thenegotiator

gibor said:


> Isn't it too simple?! If this approach would be even 60% true, you would become Billionaire in no time


u are right.
the short position i posted is a small position of the float.
nevertheless it is one of the largest short positions atm .
not percentage wise though.


----------



## thenegotiator

gibor said:


> Isn't it too simple?! If this approach would be even 60% true, you would become Billionaire in no time


I thought u were a millionare


----------



## jcgd

Thanks for the response, T.gal.


----------



## gibor365

thenegotiator said:


> I thought u were a millionare


depends in which currency


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> depends in which currency


Given the topic is oil, how about in IRR?

100,000.00 CAD=	1,252,481,871.11 IRR 

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/forex/i/irr-iranian-rial.asp#axzz297ILVjSo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_rial


----------



## thebomb

Toronto Gal I wish I could speak as intelligently as you when it comes to investing....that why I only dabble in active investing (trading etc) and instead have rental properties.....makes more sense to me.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I have read your posts & think you're 'The Bomb'. :encouragement:


----------



## larry81

Still holding !

Hopefuly:
- Rommey is elected
- Keystone XL is approved
- Israel bomb Iran / Iran bomb Israel
- SU reach 200$

hahaha, just kidding !


----------



## Plugging Along

So should I hold my SU then. 

Hmmmm which way should I bet for the US election


----------



## Plugging Along

thebomb said:


> Toronto Gal I wish I could speak as intelligently as you when it comes to investing....that why I only dabble in active investing (trading etc) and instead have rental properties.....makes more sense to me.


I agree.... I trade, but don't speak very intelligently about my trades, and hope I can copy some of the smart things from t gal for real life.


----------



## Toronto.gal

larry81 said:


> 1. Hopefuly: Rommey is elected..... Keystone XL is approved
> 2. Iran bomb Israel
> 3. SU reach 200$


1. +2.  
Can't believe Election Day is in 4 days; where have the last 4 years gone?! 

2. Like when Iran bombed Iraqi's nuclear facility in 1980? How ironic that fast forward 32 years later, that it's Iran now trying to stop its nuclear facilities from a potential attack.

3. +1.

Should get to $200 by the time I retire; We can always hope, right? :encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Plugging Along said:


> don't speak very intelligently about my trades, and hope I can copy some of the smart things from t gal for real life.


You're one smart lady IMHO.

Thanks for the kind words; I get little support in this regard around here, LOL, so I'm now limiting sharing my experiences/strategies.

I trade the cheaper oil stocks more heavily as I can afford a heavier volume & take advantage of volatility, but I also hold long-term all the shares of solid companies that I have been able to get from the trEnchEs, like SU last Fall. :wink:


----------



## Nemo2

Toronto.gal said:


> 2. Like when Iran bombed Iraqi's nuclear facility in 1980? How ironic that fast forward 32 years later, that it's Iran now trying to stop its nuclear facilities from a potential attack.


And 66 years ago Truman threatened to nuke the Soviets if they didn't withdraw from northern Iran.........can I see a pattern developing here? :wink:


----------



## HaroldCrump

Nemo2 said:


> And 66 years ago Truman threatened to nuke the Soviets if they didn't withdraw from northern Iran.........can I see a pattern developing here?


Yep, in approx. 200 BC, Senator Cato said : _Carthago delenda est_.
War mongering seems to be the hallmark of politicians since times immemorial.


----------



## thompsg4416

Down over 3% today on news of thier first quarterly loss in 3 years... What is the outlook on oil long term? I have a hard time believing its good with the US moving so much into fracking.


----------



## doctrine

Suncor has something like 50+ years of recoverable reserves worldwide. Most oil wells have a annual depletion rate of 20%+. Oil will continue to go higher. The good news about Suncor is that their dividend payout ratio is low, so they are unlikely to run into dividend payout ratios anytime soon.


----------



## thompsg4416

yeah the yield is under $2. I like to take solid stocks on bad news but I also like the safety of a good div in case they run into further trouble.


----------



## jamesbe

Damn should have waited to buy now instead of when I did.


----------



## OptsyEagle

doctrine said:


> Oil will continue to go higher.


Be careful developing investment strategies on common beliefs that may very well turn out to be false.

If the US and the world ever embraced fracking in a very proactive way, you will find that the price of oil will decline so significantly that the economics of getting oil from oil sands would get very ugly, very fast.


----------



## doctrine

No doubt - I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on higher oil prices in the short term. But I'd rather keep a certain weighting to the sector, say 5-10%, such that if oil does pop to the $150-200 a barrel level, that I'm protected. Fracking production rates drop even faster than conventional wells, so it's hard to say where it will be in 5-10 years. A supply disruption is always a possibility, and North America still usually only has a 60-80 day supply of oil. But my recommendation is to stay away from the high yielders who would be pummelled by low oil prices. Suncor is a very large refiner, so have an extra layer of protection in that both oil and gas prices would have to fall for them to be in trouble, and with a dividend payout ratio less than 20%, they could survive very low oil prices for quite some time, like they did in the 90's and more briefly in 2008-09.


----------



## larry81

Sold the whole lot for 31.55, stock have been going sideways for about a year.

For a final gain 20,885.62 CAD$ including div.

I am happy


----------



## Cal

Not bad for 16 months. You timed your concentrated buy well! Congrats.

What now? Buffett already beat you to buying a concentrated holding in Heinz....lol.


----------



## larry81

Cal said:


> Not bad for 16 months. You timed your concentrated buy well! Congrats.
> 
> What now? Buffett already beat you to buying a concentrated holding in Heinz....lol.


Yes and holding VTI for the same period beat my SU play too 

The folly of market timing


----------



## Argonaut

Funny that such a significant move dollar-wise wasn't even a drop in the bucket for SU on an average volume day.


----------



## supperfly17

Anyone know why it has been losing ground lately?


----------



## Jungle

They wasted a billion on the upgrader project and might be scrapping it now. In addition, oil sands is getting a huge discount on the market because there is so much supply. They are having trouble moving the oil to markets but that may be solved in the next few years with pipelines being built to transport the oil.


----------



## blin10

energy sector on tsx has been very weak lately...a lot of decent companies down big such as cpg,cos,bte,pwf,pgf,bnp,erf,etc,etc



supperfly17 said:


> Anyone know why it has been losing ground lately?


----------



## blin10

congrats larry, nicely done 



larry81 said:


> Sold the whole lot for 31.55, stock have been going sideways for about a year.
> 
> For a final gain 20,885.62 CAD$ including div.
> 
> I am happy


----------



## humble_pie

blin10 said:


> energy sector on tsx has been very weak lately...a lot of decent companies down big such as cpg,cos,bte,pwf,pgf,bnp,erf,etc,etc


blin are u buying anything yet? i am probably the dumbest crumb on the shelf but for long-term some of these resource stocks including gold are reaching appealing low levels.

even if share prices drift for couple of years, there are always options to sell in order to, as they say, get. paid. to. wait.

of course if global depression strikes in a new ice age, bets are off.


----------



## blin10

I held energy for years, but started to unload early this year, reason was I wasn't happy with their performance compare to SPX (was touching 52 week highs) and oil (pretty stable around 80-90)... they do look attractive right now, but my huge issue is with SPX sitting at 52week high, while energy companies close to 52 week lows, that's problematic. What happens if SPX will have a big pullback? Canadian energy will go down huge. I'll be buying energy again only when SPX pulls back big. I moved all my energy to reits/telecoms/utils and happy that I did.



humble_pie said:


> blin are u buying anything yet? i am probably the dumbest crumb on the shelf but for long-term some of these resource stocks including gold are reaching appealing low levels.
> 
> even if share prices drift for couple of years, there are always options to sell in order to, as they say, get. paid. to. wait.
> 
> of course if global depression strikes in a new ice age, bets are off.


----------



## Ethan

humble_pie said:


> of course if global depression strikes in a new ice age, bets are off.


In the event of a new ice age, perhaps nat gas prices will recover


----------



## HaroldCrump

And booze stocks.
Buy LIQ and DEO


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. gold are reaching appealing low levels..
> 2. of course if global depression strikes in a new ice age, bets are off.


1. Indeed! 
2. Another Ice Age looming? According to NOAA scientists, not yet. 

January 2013 Global Climate Report

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/ncdc-releases-january-2013-global-climate-report


----------



## humble_pie

blin10 said:


> What happens if SPX will have a big pullback? Canadian energy will go down huge. I'll be buying energy again only when SPX pulls back big. I moved all my energy to reits/telecoms/utils and happy that I did.


interesting, blin, including the part i didn't quote. Thanks for sharing. You've done great w the reits telcos & utilities, congratulations.

but ... there's always a but, right? the aperture i see is your future tense. The future imperative. You *will* buy energy again when the SPX *will* pull back big. But what if it doesn't ...


----------



## blin10

if it doesn't I won't be buying energy, will be sticking with reits/telecoms/utils/pipelines



humble_pie said:


> interesting, blin, including the part i didn't quote. Thanks for sharing. You've done great w the reits telcos & utilities, congratulations.
> 
> but ... there's always a but, right? the aperture i see is your future tense. The future imperative. You *will* buy energy again when the SPX *will* pull back big. But what if it doesn't ...


----------



## thenegotiator

Ethan said:


> In the event of a new ice age, perhaps nat gas prices will recover


yes
the ice age lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzixp8s4pyg


----------



## supperfly17

I guess the long term answer was NO


----------



## Ethan

supperfly17 said:


> I guess the long term answer was NO


How do you figure?

This thread was started on September 25, 2011. Since then, SU has increased to $28.73, a total return of 10.5%.

The TSX was at 11,462.87 on September 25, 2011, and is currently at 12,305.10. A total return of 7.3%.


----------



## RedRose

Interesting read since Sept 2011. It is good to see a positive result *Ethan* especially today with lots dumping Energy stocks.
May be a good time to buy huh?


----------



## supperfly17

Ethan said:


> How do you figure?
> 
> This thread was started on September 25, 2011. Since then, SU has increased to $28.73, a total return of 10.5%.
> 
> The TSX was at 11,462.87 on September 25, 2011, and is currently at 12,305.10. A total return of 7.3%.


I was mostly referring to the "sure thing" but im still a noob either way, and you make a great point.


----------



## Toronto.gal

supperfly17 said:


> I was mostly referring to the "sure thing"* but im still a noob*....


And that's why you're here, to learn! :encouragement:

The thread opened in Sept./2011 as others mentioned, so if you study the price chart backwards, to *March/2011* for example, when the stock reached a high of $46+, you'll understand the thread's title [remember what was happening in the ME around that time that made oil go up?]. If you're a lil bored, you can go back as far as May/08, and then you'll understand dogleg's 'sure thing' wording.

I captured the lows of Sept. 2011, and frankly, given the prices of earlier & subsequent years, I was not expecting to see SU in the high $20's at this time.

Larry must be on round #2. :biggrin:


----------



## GoldStone

I compared SU and XEG on a chart going back to 01/01/2008. XEG = iShares Canada Energy ETF. SU is the top holding in XEG at 17% weight.

My observations:

As expected, SU is far more volatile short-term. SU offers more opportunities for quick trades.

Long term, SU and XEG are strongly correlated. XEG would be my choice to ride the long waves from the trough to the peak. Why take on the single company risk if you don't have to?


----------



## Ethan

RedRose said:


> May be a good time to buy huh?


The pipeline debate is really worrying me, and has really changed things since this thread was started. If you want into Canadian oil, Suncor is a good place to be. They have the size to ride out temporary price differentials, as well they are an integrated producer (up, mid and down stream) which further protects them.

I prefer Husky though. They are also an integrated producer, but they have a lower PE and a higher dividend yield. I've been using a covered call strategy on HSE for the past year and am pleased with the results.


----------



## humble_pie

GoldStone said:


> I compared SU and XEG on a chart going back to 01/01/2008. XEG = iShares Canada Energy ETF. SU is the top holding in XEG at 17% weight.
> 
> My observations:
> 
> As expected, SU is far more volatile short-term. SU offers more opportunities for quick trades.
> 
> Long term, SU and XEG are strongly correlated. XEG would be my choice to ride the long waves from the trough to the peak. Why take on the single company risk if you don't have to?



thank you, this is an interesting & valuable observation! But for anyone interested in stock + option combinations, XEG would be a weak candidate even if its price performance would be in the SU range. Suncor would pack far heftier option premiums & i believe they trade stateside as well, which makes the combo even more interesting.

this feebleness of options on canadian etfs means that investors interested in option strategies pretty much have to go the individual stocks route. Husky would be another good candidate for an option approach, as Ethan mentions


----------



## Jungle

Buffet buys $500 million dollar stake in Suncor.. this could get interesting..

http://business.financialpost.com/2...y-stake-in-suncor-energy-inc/?__lsa=2e68-e60f

Discloser: long suncor and not selling.


----------



## jamesbe

Cool, I am long on suncor as well and I wasn't doing so well, but am in the black now at least.


----------



## fatcat

where did i read that charlie munger is very bullish on oil ?
i guess this is charlie's trade


----------



## Jungle

A star article says his two money managers Todd combs and Ted weschler made the pick.. But this is the ONLY current Canadian stock owned by buffets company. That is a very good sign IMO..especially from buffet. 

I have a feeling we could see this back in the 40s now..


----------



## HaroldCrump

Jungle said:


> But this is the only current Canadian stock owned by buffets company.


Don't they own CN Rail any more?


----------



## Jungle

HaroldCrump said:


> Don't they own CN Rail any more?


The star article I'm reading says its the only current Canadian holding..
I think bill gates owns some can railway?


----------



## PatInTheHat

Damnit I had been meaning to buy sub $32 for so long but the funds were never available until now. I'm really high on Suncor long term but now its a much tougher decision to buy in at todays price argh.


----------



## humble_pie

HaroldCrump said:


> Don't they own CN Rail any more?



whizzed thru 1st half of the insider list, at quick glance neither buffett nor berkshire seem to be present

bill & melinda gates are still all aboard with 51 plus million shares, though

https://www.sedi.ca/sedi/SVTIIBIviewResults?locale=en_CA


EDIT: drat, the link only takes viewer to sedi's home page. Sedi is the official data base for insider trading in canada (the owners of INK take their data from sedi dot ca). However sedi is notoriously difficult to navigate. 

i did get to cn rail's pages. The big nobs with their shares are still allaboard, the gates's are still allaboard but buffett seems to have gotten off the train.


----------



## Nemo2

Didn't Buffett buy Burlington Northern?


----------



## fatcat

Nemo2 said:


> Didn't Buffett buy Burlington Northern?


yes ..


----------



## My Own Advisor

Great time to buy!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Rinse/repeat, like another roller-coaster stock I know. 

MOA, did you check the appreciation of the stock for the last decade. :biggrin:


----------



## My Own Advisor

Nice one T.Gal. 

Are you buying?


----------



## banjopete

Wowee. I guess unless you think we don't need oil, things are looking very good for entry points long term. I'm far from convinced oil won't go lower but still unless you're trying to make money short term, me likee.


----------



## Toronto.gal

My Own Advisor said:


> Are you buying?


Yes. I did some balancing in the summer, so I bought back that %; and depending how much lower prices will get, I might increase my allocation [to DRIP more at lower prices, you know].


----------



## webber22

dogleg said:


> It was at $47. not long ago then dropped to $40. Looked good to me at $40. so I bought some, then came Armageddon and now its around $26. It looks almost irresistible. It has a 200 day moving average of about $39. It has YOY quarterly earnings growth of about 4.1% and a market cap of about $40B. However, things have changed. Any opinions ? Thanks.


I got the chills when I read the original post in this long winded thread. Our 52 week high is $47, same as in the post. Armageddon is mentioned too :hopelessness:
All we need is Belguy to come out of hiding to initiate my buy


----------



## My Own Advisor

Toronto.gal said:


> Yes. I did some balancing in the summer, so I bought back that %; and depending how much lower prices will get, I might increase my allocation [to DRIP more at lower prices, you know].


I am going to be buying some soon. I'm just hoping it goes under $30 so I can get more.


----------



## Doryman

I'm wondering how low this SUcker is willing to go for me. It seems that SU has dipped to the $30-ish level more than once in the last few years. Surely it'll make it down to that level again with oil at 4 year lows, right?

Really want to add to my holdings in this stock, but all those little red numbers in my account next to SU (and COS, and.... sigh...LRE...) are telling me that I really can't call bottoms for beans.


----------



## 1980z28

Doryman;459905
Really want to add to my holdings in this stock said:


> Your not alone


----------



## 6811

1980z28 said:


> Your not alone


In fact there's a crowd of us


----------



## larry81

ring me when this hit the mid 20's mark !


----------



## supperfly17

larry81 said:


> ring me when this hit the mid 20's mark !


No way this happens. Everyone is getting out of the smaller players and running to SU. Can't see this stock below 30.


----------



## gladaki

It will happen for sure


----------



## My Own Advisor

I'll say it gets to $30 but not much lower.


----------



## geoffh

Suncor would be trading under book value at $26 a share. This would be like Exxon (XOM) trading under $50 or TD Bank under $26. This is possible when markets are so panicked that selling takes companies way under what their worth is. In the current market environment, absent a major shock to the financial system, I would say SU trading below $26 has a probability of less than 5%. Can't hurt to throw a GTC stink bid in and maybe get hit if oil breaks $60 or something like that.


----------



## gladaki

I will probably buy when it hits 30


----------



## peterk

gladaki said:


> It *will* happen *for sure*





gladaki said:


> I will probably buy *when* it hits 30


You are shorting then, surely?


----------



## Synergy

I'll play. If we get some continued weakness in oil, I could easily see SU getting back to $27-28 (2012-2013 lows)


----------



## larry81

29 !

Someone right me when this hit 26.60


----------



## Siciliano698

If this can get to 28$ on the intraday IM IN *lol.*


----------



## larry81

Now >27 !


----------



## Synergy

larry81 said:


> Now >27 !


That's on the NYSE, in my post I was referring to $27-28 on the TSX - still a ways to go. Currently in the $31 range on the TSX.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Wow, hard to believe this might actually get down to the sub 30$ range....but seems like it just might happen


----------



## My Own Advisor

I really, really, hope so...just in time for Jan. 1


----------



## thepitchedlink

My Own Advisor said:


> I really, really, hope so...just in time for Jan. 1


Your talking TSFA then?


----------



## gibor365

thepitchedlink said:


> Your talking TSFA then?


Actually it's also my plan as I hold both SU and CNQ in TFSA...and SU yield is already 3.6%..


----------



## passivedividends

gibor said:


> Actually it's also my plan as I hold both SU and CNQ in TFSA...and SU yield is already 3.6%..


Agreed, high yields in TFSA!


----------



## My Own Advisor

Yes. I figure the more I can shelter CDN dividends (TFSA), the better. 

The second-best choice for me is CDN dividends non-registered. Third best, is RRSP because I prefer to keep that account for U.S. and international content.


----------



## thepitchedlink

The second-best choice for me is CDN dividends non-registered. Third best, is RRSP because I prefer to keep that account for U.S. and international content.[/QUOTE]

Yup, me too


----------



## peterk

Well - Here we are again, 9 years later, back at $26.

Guess it wasn't a sure thing.


----------



## AltaRed

We are in uncharted territory. I wouldn't count anything out at this point. Apparently Dow futures are down about 1000 pts tonight. Put on your seat belt.


----------



## cervelott

Starting to really hate the futures gap.


----------



## doctrine

Suncor is a Tier 1 company and will survive the price war. Most mid and small cap O&G will be seriously compromised if this lasts more than a year, which is very likely. Most of those are pricing in recapitalization 

I think Suncor at $25 prices in a lot of the downside. But it could get below $20. It would definitely be a long term buy at that point. I don't think there is any rush though - this is going to take a while to have a supply response to low prices.


----------



## larry81

wow, suncor at 20$... its a joke


----------



## MrMatt

larry81 said:


> wow, suncor at 20$... its a joke


Honestly at these prices, everything is. 
I'm thinking a good goldmine, or regulated utility.


----------



## cainvest

larry81 said:


> wow, suncor at 20$... its a joke


I skimmed over some of this thread when it got resurrected, very interesting to see how it played out in hindsight.

So you doing another 6 figure buy in?


----------



## doctrine

Well there you go it only took 1 day to get there. Yes, Suncor a screaming buy here. Although, a lot of other stuff is too.


----------



## peterk

It seems, at least, that Larry hasn't sold his computer off yet to buy more SU... I suppose that's a good sign. :tongue:


----------



## larry81

Currently looking at a couple single stocks, i plan to take a big margin and deploy the capital


----------



## robfordlives

How this is not front page news right now is baffling. This is it folks, canadian oil has virtually nowhere to go coming soon...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...d-at-u-s-gulf-coast-could-push-out-canada-oil


----------



## AltaRed

robfordlives said:


> How this is not front page news right now is baffling. This is it folks, canadian oil has virtually nowhere to go coming soon...
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...d-at-u-s-gulf-coast-could-push-out-canada-oil


Many Gulf coast refineries are configured for Canadian dilbit so refineries would take a process (and cost) hit swapping out dilbit for Saudi crude. Inland refineries rely on Canadian imports. I suspect there will be some effect but I think your headline is a little misguided. If Canadian dilbit is backed out, it will be the crude-by-rail portion that Cdn producers can no longer ship by rail to begin with.

I suspect the Saudi tankers are designed to target Permian producers, crudes of somewhat similar quality.


----------



## Eder

Maybe we could talk Canada into using Canadian oil...nah...never happen.


----------



## robfordlives

Anyone know why Mnuchin met with some Russian ministers in secret 4 days ago. Wasn't on his calendar


----------



## spirit

robfordlives said:


> Anyone know why Mnuchin met with some Russian ministers in secret 4 days ago. Wasn't on his calendar


No...but I will try to find out. Wonder if it has anything to do with the Saudi's and the oil price war going on. I bet the US frackers are not happy. I know we in Alberta are tightening our belts.....will be touching stomach to spine pretty soon.


----------



## Eclectic12

Eder said:


> Maybe we could talk Canada into using Canadian oil...nah...never happen.


I suppose having ... or should I say, giving Irving money to convert their refinery to be able to use Alberta crude might help a bit. Quebec and Ontario already use Canadian oil.

It probably doesn't help that Canada refines more than it uses ... and has for years.


Cheers


----------



## Eder

Although Quebec & Ontario use some Canadian oil Ontario imports from the USA & Quebec imports over half its oil from outside Canada. Norway imports no oil & mandates only Norwegian oil can be used in the country...but what ever.


----------



## larry81

Just hit 16$ !


----------



## cainvest

Wouldn't be surpised if it falls below $10 before this is all over.


----------



## nobleea

cainvest said:


> Wouldn't be surpised if it falls below $10 before this is all over.


For sure. probably lower still. I could see $7.


----------



## fstamand

just looked at it. Had to double take to make sure it was the TSX stock and not the US one


----------



## AltaRed

My proxy for the mood on O&G stocks is XEG... $2.58 at the moment. Who would have ever imagined!


----------



## peterk

^ I ditched about half my XEG and bought more SU and XOM a week or two ago. Good decision, but I wish I had just sold the whole lot of them!


----------



## robfordlives

How does this all end? Keep hearing noone is making $ yet they all keep drilling lol


----------



## AltaRed

robfordlives said:


> How does this all end? Keep hearing noone is making $ yet they all keep drilling lol


Existing rig contracts for the most part, e.g. a company may contract for 20 wells with one rig. And in most cases, companies would have contracted through the winter drilling season until spring break up which will be happening soon. Rig count will fall off the map at that point.

Remember the business was looking up until the double whammy of the Saudi-Russian feud AND the COVID-19 crisis.

Added: No numbers available without a subscription, but the daily mood is characterized here https://www.dailyoilbulletin.com/category/rig-counts/

And if you want to know what rig is drilling for whom and where....... https://riggertalk.com/drilling_rigs_list.php?pageno=1&mapsearch=List+view


----------



## dubmac

robfordlives said:


> How does this all end?


don't know, not sure anyone knows

I nibbled on SU today - but still not convinced this train wreck is done. I read this today on the qtrade newsfeed:

"The plunge in oil prices are largely the result of a one-two punch in which coronavirus is shrinking demand while production stays robust amid a Russia-Saudi battle over market share, and something's gotta give, says UniCredit's Edoardo Campanella. "The conflict increasingly resembles the traditional hawk-and-dove game," he says. "Saudi Arabia wants to punish Russia for its lack of commitment to the OPEC+ alliance, while Moscow wants to exert as much pressure on American producers in retaliation for Washington's boycotting of the North Stream 2 pipeline ... Sooner or later, one of the two or both will have to blink." WTI falls 19% to $21.80 a barrel and is now down 51% this month. 
([email protected])

So...my guess is that "until one or both blink", we're in the poop....
but, ...but after they blink, then maybe things will improve a little for the price of crude.


----------



## Eclectic12

Eder said:


> Although Quebec & Ontario use some Canadian oil Ontario imports from the USA & Quebec imports over half its oil from outside Canada ...


Is that focusing on the details and losing sight of the big picture?

Using the 2018 production numbers, Canadian production was 4.6 MMb/d where 1.7 went to Canadian refineries. Foreign Imports were 0.6 MMb/d. Unless Canadian refineries were running at nowhere near full production capacity, getting the foreign imports to zero seems like a minor change at shift of about 13%. There's the same amount as the entire amount going to Canadian refineries at the whims of world prices.

That's without considering the upgrades costing millions needed to shift the 0.6 MMb/d to Canadian refineries. Some likely would take years to come on stream.

It seems more of an expensive band-aid than a solution.




Eder said:


> ... Norway imports no oil & mandates only Norwegian oil can be used in the country ...


Sure ... but do you really think a gov't mandate away from decades of pushing the integrated NA private system is going to go over well? What would make it different than the uproar about the NEP?




Eder said:


> ... but what ever.


If you see something I haven't heard or missed, feel free to enlighten me.

Otherwise you seem to prefer to believe a 13% shift is going to out weight the financial effects of the other 50% of production.


Cheers


----------



## doctrine

SU at $15 today. CNQ at $11. CNQ released an update that they are reducing capital expenditures 33% but are pumping at full capacity and can sustain production and the dividend (at 15%) at current prices. Waiting to hear on SU. I believe SU is also pumping at maximum capacity and is unlikely to stop.

There is strategy here. SU and CNQ do not want to lose market share and benefit by higher cost or more indebted producers going under. As well, if Alberta curtails production, it will be based on current production levels, and so they want to be as high as possible.

A production curtailment is already happening though, crude by rail is evaporating and the pipelines may start running at less than full capacity shortly.


----------



## peterk

Just reminding myself again that @ $55 oil Suncor was comfortable paying out $5B to shareholders through the dividend and the buyback. At current levels that is a 20% annual return to the shareholder from FCF that they're willing to part with. 

I hope for now that they outright suspend the dividend and keep the buyback going, if they can afford that at the moment, to ensure they have the cash for continuing capital expenses for the next 10 years. 

Also remember the mine extension plans in the works with the regulatory process just started, adding 25 years of production starting 10 years from now, of 2B barrels total; and don't forget the possibility of upcoming lease swaps/buyouts of Syncrude reserves, adding some 1-2B barrels of easily mined ore that will need minimal Capex. There's also the possible sale of some Syncrude assets to CNRShell for a big cash infusion. Plus the likely reduction in OPEX as automation of truck fleets is figured out, and the likely lowering/stagnation of staff salaries on a medium-term time frame.

I'd still be buying if I had the money to spare, but I'm biased.


----------



## larry81

Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated !


----------



## gardner

Up 12% today as of now. Is there news driving this?


----------



## larry81

Telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump


> An exchange of views was also held on the current state of the world oil market. Agreed on Russian-American consultations on this subject through the ministers of energy.








Телефонный разговор с Президентом США Дональдом Трампом


По инициативе американской стороны состоялся продолжительный телефонный разговор Владимира Путина с Президентом Соединённых Штатов Америки Дональдом Трампом.




kremlin.ru


----------



## gardner

larry81 said:


> Telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump


Seems like pretty thin news. Could be just Putin directing his employee what to do.


----------



## Eder

I like it! do you have a number in mind to exit your position?


----------



## doctrine

I bought shares at $19 and $15. Definitely holding. Oil will look really good in 1-2 years. Oil is trading at $35 a year out, so companies just have to make it a couple years to survive.


----------



## twowheeled

doctrine said:


> I bought shares at $19 and $15. Definitely holding. Oil will look really good in 1-2 years. Oil is trading at $35 a year out, so companies just have to make it a couple years to survive.


isn't that just a function of steepening contango due to supply/demand dynamics now? No telling if that will flatten out. A couple years is a long time for an extractive resource industry with credit issues.


----------



## newfoundlander61

Years from now Petro Canada stations will be still around and so will the company. Just saying


----------



## larry81

Eder said:


> I like it! do you have a number in mind to exit your position?


30-35 would be great


----------



## doctrine

twowheeled said:


> isn't that just a function of steepening contango due to supply/demand dynamics now? No telling if that will flatten out. A couple years is a long time for an extractive resource industry with credit issues.


You are right that there are unknowns, but oil production was already going to be challenged because of 5 years of under investment. It was on an edge of a cliff. Now it's been pushed right off. There will be less oil to sell in 6-12 months than there is now, meaning prices are higher as well partially because of supply.

If it wasn't a risk, Suncor wouldn't be below $20. But this is really good risk vs reward, in my opinion, which is why I have invested.


----------



## dubmac

oh my. 
you are all in here, larry.


----------



## larry81

+15% today


----------



## peterk

Excellent. I bought more shares and calls when it was at $16


----------



## larry81

I added another slice this morning:


----------



## TorJoe

I don't mean to be a killjoy, but isn't it a bit early to pile into Canadian energy companies, given that most of the decline in oil prices are still expected to be ahead of us, especially in April and May?

Yesterday and today's jump in the prices of Canadian oil majors (CNQ and SU especially) are probably tied to the announcement of Albertan government's decision to invest in the Keystone pipeline. But even with this backing the completion of the pipeline is not a surething. My understanding is that significant environment and legal hurdles remain, especially south of the border.

CNQ and SU have defied the gravity of the sinking international crude market yesterday and today, but I fear that this defiance can last only that long. It's difficult to imagine that stock prices will stay where they are if Western Canadian heavy oil drop to $0 or negative.

Just saying. I cross my fingers hoping that your optimism is justified.


----------



## larry81

Thanks for the comment TorJoe, they way i see it is simple:

high risk = high reward


----------



## james4beach

Larry, just curious. Is this part of a diversified portfolio? Maybe you have another $3 million in other assorted stock positions. Or are you making a highly concentrated bet just on Suncor?

If you are doing this on margin, just beware that TD can change its policy at any time about which securities are eligible for margin.


----------



## nobleea

It's hard to understand. Adding pipeline capacity is a hard one since the cost to ship the oil currently costs more than the price they get for the oil, so adding more capacity isn't going to help much. The near term prospects of WCS oil are not positive. For sure the market looks 3-6 months in advance, but even then, I think they're being optimistic.


----------



## larry81

james4beach said:


> Larry, just curious. Is this part of a diversified portfolio? Maybe you have another $3 million in other assorted stock positions. Or are you making a highly concentrated bet just on Suncor?


Yes this is part of a diversified portfolio of plain old boring ETF's (VUN, VCN, VIU, VEE)


----------



## TorJoe

nobleea said:


> It's hard to understand. Adding pipeline capacity is a hard one since the cost to ship the oil currently costs more than the price they get for the oil, so adding more capacity isn't going to help much. The near term prospects of WCS oil are not positive. For sure the market looks 3-6 months in advance, but even then, I think they're being optimistic.


News reports are that the pipeline can be operational by 2023. Kenney is betting that oil sands will survive until then. I hope he's right. TC Energy says it has "acquired all of the land and right-of-ways needed to build the project through the U.S., and had permits in place from the U.S. federal government." But if a democratic president came to power in November things may be different. It's also not clear what the oil industry landscape in the US will be like in the aftermath of the current crisis. The Americans are talking about entering into a cartel-like relationship with the other major oil producing countries to prevent a repeat of the current crisis in the future. If that comes to fruition, where would that leave Canada and its oil? Would the Americans be willing to fork over domestic market shares - which if the US became a de facto member of a cartel would become a highly regulated space rather than remain a free market like now - to Canadian producers? There are just too many uncertainties.

I have the feeling that Kenney was so desperate to generate a piece of good news for his province that he is taking this step of investing public money in Keystone without regard about risks in the future.


----------



## Eder

It is interesting that Kenney is trying to provide jobs & tax money yet still comes under criticism...destruction of our economy is preferable no doubt.


----------



## nobleea

Hey if corporate handouts didn't work the first time to create jobs (corp tax cuts), try, try again.


----------



## Eder

Don't forget corporate tax cuts came on the heels of the exorcism of the NDP & their ill timed corporate tax increases. 

Investment in Canada's most important industry shows leadership and foresight...in short supply lately here in the North. ...jmo


----------



## nobleea

Eder said:


> Investment in Canada's most important industry shows leadership and foresight...in short supply lately here in the North. ...jmo


So Trudeau showed leadership and foresight when he invested in TMX?


----------



## Eder

nobleea said:


> So Trudeau showed leadership and foresight when he invested in TMX?


He had no choice after the ridiculous charade he put Kinder Morgan thru. Canada needs these pipes more than TC, Enbridge or Pembina.


----------



## larry81

We should see another SU price ramp up today:
President Trump To Meet With Oil CEOs To Discuss Saudi Oil Tariffs | OilPrice.com


----------



## larry81

+21%


----------



## larry81

Anyone remember this timeline a few weeks ago:

President Trump says Google has a website to give info about COVID-19
Google say they actually don’t have a website
people and the medias laugh at Trump for 24h
Google comes back and says they’ll make the website ASAP
Well, history might repeat itself folks:









Trump Eyes Global Oil Output Cut of 10 Million Barrels a Day


President Donald Trump is trying to get the world to cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels a day in an effort to end a market-share war that sent crude prices plunging to the lowest levels in two decades.




www.bloomberg.com






> Earlier on Thursday, Trump shocked markets by tweeting that he expected Russia and Saudi Arabia alone to cut about 10 million barrels -- or roughly a tenth of global petroleum, sending oil prices soaring.
> 
> In his tweet, Trump said he had spoken to MBS, who had in turn spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But a Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the conversation hadn’t happened and confirmed that no production cut had been agreed to with the Saudis.



President Trump says Saudi speaking to Russia
oil goes up on “lies”
24 hours of Trump being made fun of in the medias
*---> *you are here * <---*
Saudis say on Friday or Saturday they decided to reduce production by amount Trump said
Russians decided to agree on Monday so they can "win"
oil 35-40$ a barrel by next Tuesday


----------



## doctrine

There is a lot of smoke here and where there is smoke there is fire. There will be some kind of cut which will speed the recovery of oil prices when demand eventually returns.

The fun thing about buying oil companies when oil is $25 or less is that they're all effectively bankrupt. It actually makes it easy to invest. Lower prices are even better. As long as the world doesn't end, low cost producers will do very well. 

Saudi and Russia are agreeing to deal because there will literally no one to sell the oil to within weeks or less. You can't have a price war if people won't even take it if you're paying them.

The real risk is in the juniors, but why bother when the SU and CNQs can return 100-150% quite easily even from here? Juniors could return 500%+...or nothing as they recapitalize and obliterate shareholders - Whiting Petroleum diluted over 30 to 1. The juniors need $50 oil, not $35-40.


----------



## larry81

Well said doctrine ! And this is exactly why SU and XOM are the chosen stocks to play this waiting game 

For anyone with money to set aside for a little while, this is a safe bet (IMHO).


----------



## larry81

Folks, new updated thread is here:
https://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/threads/is-suncor-a-sure-thing-at-18-00.140746/


----------



## peterk

Well, I guess that's that, then. 9 years of thread discussion down the drain so Larry can post his screenshots anew.


----------



## larry81

> (Bloomberg) -- *Russia’s oil industry is ready to agree cuts to production together with Saudi Arabia and other major producers* in a desperate bid to halt the slide in prices, according to five people familiar with the efforts.
> 
> While the Kremlin hasn’t confirmed a willingness to take part in reducing crude output by 10 million barrels a day, as announced by U.S. President Donald Trump Thursday in a Tweet that drove oil prices up as much as 47%, the Russian producers are ready for coordinated action, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the matter isn’t yet public. President Vladimir Putin will meet oil executives and officials to discuss the situation on the world energy markets later on Friday, the Kremlin said.


----------



## Goal hand

The replacement if canadian crude with texas sweet is complicated. It is not a apples to apples comparision. If you are a refinery you want that 10.00 discount of wcs. A refinery cost will be about 4 bucks to upgrade wcs. Which will than on normal markets sell slightly above wti.


----------



## nobleea

An opinion to consider on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.








Brent crude could still drop to $10 a barrel and stay there in Q2: IHS Markit


Oil prices rallied Thursday on the possibility of a deal to cut production, but Victor Shum of IHS Markit said there's "little chance" that any OPEC+ deal could save the market.




www.cnbc.com





"Still, Shum said, given that both sides produce around 10 million bpd to 11 million bpd, he considers it “highly unlikely that Saudi Arabia will agree to a unilateral massive cut or even a bilateral cut with Russia.”
“Are we talking about asking Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut 50% or more of their production? That seems incredible,” he said. Trump told reporters that he has not offered to lower American oil output.
Riyadh could, however, as the G-20 chair for the year, try to put together a coordinated cut that includes other oil-producing countries such as Canada.
“We need every producer to come in to agree to a cut and have the cuts enforced,” Shum said. “That is a tall order in the limited time we have before the world runs out of crude oil storage.”

I can see the line of thinking. Russia and SA are only going to offer token cuts unless other non-OPEC countries like US, Mex, CAD, etc offer up cuts. But that will never fly in the US, and even in Canada, resources are a provincial domain, though there is precedence through the AB curtailment initiative.


----------



## bgc_fan

nobleea said:


> I can see the line of thinking. Russia and SA are only going to offer token cuts unless other non-OPEC countries like US, Mex, CAD, etc offer up cuts. But that will never fly in the US, and even in Canada, resources are a provincial domain, though there is precedence through the AB curtailment initiative.


Not really to defend Saudi Arabia here, but people who keep blaming SA for oil prices are overlooking the fact that the US is the number one oil producer in the world. List of countries by oil production - Wikipedia

It seems a little disingenuous to keep using SA as a scapegoat to blame for oil surplus when the US has increased production significantly over the last 15 years or so. U.S. Crude Oil Production - Historical Chart

And as you've noted, the US is unlikely to cut their production.


----------



## larry81

Trump threatens tariffs on oil imports to 'protect' U.S. energy workers


U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would impose tariffs on crude imports if he has to "protect" U.S. energy workers from the oil price crash that has been exacerbated by a war between Russia and Saudi Arabia over market share.




www.reuters.com






> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would impose tariffs on crude imports if he has to “protect” U.S. energy workers from the oil price crash that has been exacerbated by a war between Russia and Saudi Arabia over market share.
> 
> “If I have to do tariffs on oil coming from outside or if I have to do something to protect our ... tens of thousands of energy workers and our great companies that produce all these jobs, I’ll do whatever I have to do,” Trump told reporters in a briefing about the coronavirus outbreak.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Well said doctrine ! And this is exactly why SU and XOM are the chosen stocks to play this waiting game
> 
> For anyone with money to set aside for a little while, this is a safe bet (IMHO).


I understand the argument that there isn't much downside, but I also learned some lessons during 2007-2009. One lesson was that in a highly distressed industry, it can be difficult to foresee which companies will be winners and which will be losers.

For example a company could survive by issuing huge amounts of equity and diluting existing shareholders down to nothing. You really don't know how it will play out, and you can't predict which company will emerge victorious.

The lesson I learned from 2007-2009 was that if you want to bet on a sector's recovery, it's best to use a sector index ETF. I have frequently thought of buying XEG and HMMJ for this reason. And yes it's true that XEG is a whopping 32% SU. _However_, it may not always be ... the beauty of the index ETF is that it will adapt and continue holding whichever company emerges as the success.

Look at XIT (tech) as an example. Initially it was extremely overweight Nortel. And later, RIM. So if you bought it at the depths of the past tech crash you would think you might be loading up on NT or RIM, two losers. But what does it hold today? It's mostly SHOP and CSU which have been two incredible performers. And they certainly weren't on the radar all those years ago!

XIT performance has been incredibly good, even if you bought it when NT and RIM dominated the portfolio. That's because indexes adapt over time, and shift weights to the best new stocks.


----------



## nobleea

larry81 said:


> Trump threatens tariffs on oil imports to 'protect' U.S. energy workers
> 
> 
> U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would impose tariffs on crude imports if he has to "protect" U.S. energy workers from the oil price crash that has been exacerbated by a war between Russia and Saudi Arabia over market share.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


How is that going to work? Their biggest import country is Canada at almost half of their imports. I guess he could put tariffs on us, but that would go against his new free trade agreement. Next is Mexico.
SA and Russia are the next biggest and combine for <12% of imports. Given the drop in demand, I would bet that almost nothing to tariff.


----------



## doctrine

Yes, if you truly wanted to balance your risk, you could take the index. You could also balance with some US companies. However, in this particular case, I think Canadian companies have some unique advantages, not limited to the massive discount in the Canadian dollar, and an excessive amount of takeaway capacity coming online in the next 2 years (TMX/KXL/L3), combined with decreased production, which will eliminate the specific bottleneck discount. SU and CNQ bounced back more than the index since the low (CNQ up an amazing 91%), but there is a good chance the index outperforms from here, especially if oil really pops. But, I still prefer the lower risk, slightly lower return option.

I expect the output cuts to be announced this week will include an Alberta component. However, given the low cost structure of SU and CNQ,I believe they will make more money under a 10-15% cut than currently, so it is a net benefit. Smaller companies are still shutting in production even at much higher prices.


----------



## andrewf

nobleea said:


> How is that going to work? Their biggest import country is Canada at almost half of their imports. I guess he could put tariffs on us, but that would go against his new free trade agreement. Next is Mexico.
> SA and Russia are the next biggest and combine for <12% of imports. Given the drop in demand, I would bet that almost nothing to tariff.


You must be under the impression that Trump actually thinks about any of this stuff before opening his trap.


----------



## larry81

nobleea said:


> How is that going to work? Their biggest import country is Canada at almost half of their imports.




This is a joint "threat":






Subscribe to read | Financial Times


News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




www.ft.com






> US and Canadian officials are discussing the imposition of tariffs on Saudi Arabian and Russian oil imports if the two members of the Opec+ group do not quickly reach a deal to end their price war.


----------



## nobleea

But even if they tariff all foreign all (not including CAD), there is far too much production in the US alone to meet US demand and storage will fill up in a few weeks. Given the small amount of foreign imports, it solves nothing.


----------



## larry81

RUSSIA IS READY TO DISCUSS VERY SUBSTANTIAL OIL OUTPUT CUTS DUE TO GLOBAL DEMAND COLLAPSE








Russia, Saudi Arabia, ‘Very Close’ To Reaching Oil Output Deal | OilPrice.com


Russia’s wealth fund chief Dmitriev said on Monday that Saudi Arabia and Russia are very close to reaching an oil output deal




oilprice.com


----------



## nobleea

10M cut agreed to and no impact on pricing. It was already priced in and it's not going to be enough.
Some people say a 20-35M bpd cut was required to bring things back in to line. If the US gets out of lockdown in the next month or so, it will probably take to the end of the year to see some real price progress.


----------



## doctrine

There will be a 25M cut for sure, whether by choice or not. Low cost producers with liquidity are the survivors.


----------



## nobleea

doctrine said:


> There will be a 25M cut for sure, whether by choice or not. Low cost producers with liquidity are the survivors.


WCS is under $4 now with this 10M cut. There are no low cost producers in Canada that can make a go of it at that price. Maybe triple that.


----------



## Eder

Suncor needs about $17-$18 / barrel for its heavy oil and $18-19/barrel for Syncrude oil . Wont take much to get there, most likely once the virus is under control.


----------



## doctrine

nobleea said:


> WCS is under $4 now with this 10M cut. There are no low cost producers in Canada that can make a go of it at that price. Maybe triple that.


At current oil prices, the world oil business is bankrupt, not just Canada. The amount of production that is generating a gross margin that covers sustaining capital, depreciation, interest, and a return on capital, is virtually zero, including national oil companies who need a return on capital for their countries. Even being generous with the resilency of those countries with nationalized oil, this is just brutal and those economies will eventually massively contract at current prices.


----------



## Eder

Suncor is getting more than spot price for their oil.


----------



## gardner

Some sort of deal was announced today



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/opec-deal-1.5530381





> oil producers agreed Sunday to boost oil prices by cutting nearly 10 million barrels a day in production, or a tenth of global supply, according to several national energy officials who participated in the talks.


Sound like Alberta production caps will persist or possibly tighten since Canada is said to be part of the deal. I wonder if the Americans will limit their production? I don't know if the US has levers to control that.


----------



## doctrine

gardner said:


> Sound like Alberta production caps will persist or possibly tighten since Canada is said to be part of the deal. I wonder if the Americans will limit their production? I don't know if the US has levers to control that.


Alberta production down as much as 700,000 boe/day already. The Enbridge mainline is already operating at a rumored 100-200k boe/day below maximum capacity, which has not happened in a very long time. US production had also dropped by 600 boe/day over a week ago, now is potentially down year over year for the first time since 2016 on shut-ins and oil rig count cratering.

All of this is a consequence of just not enough demand. If you are a long term investor in solid oil companies, you want to see this downturn in prices last a good 6 months at least. Producers aren't nearly as well hedged as 2014-2015 and as hedges come off, there will be a lot of bankruptcies.


----------



## larry81

i am still holding both SU and XEG, nice gains so far !


----------



## doctrine

I still hold every share of SU and CNQ I bought back in March. Not as much as larry81 but it is a hefty position. XEG continues to grind higher slowly. Much like oil and gasoline consumption around the world. US at 82% of pre-COVID-19 demand. China at 92%. Both going up.


----------



## larry81

Buy When There's Blood in the Streets


----------



## doctrine

Suncor has been really hit - apparently many funds, who typically would have both SU and CNQ, have been shedding SU and in some cases shorting and going long CNQ. CNQ seems to be more popular because they are not exposed to refining margins, not suffering under a low price differential anymore, and are proving to be the low cost leader and also now the largest oil and nat gas producer in Canada. 

But Suncor will be around too and I've been adding to my previous positions at $15 and $16 in the last few weeks, in addition to the shares I bought back in March/April. Suncor may take a bite at something in the next few months too like CNQ did with Pony.


----------



## hboy54

doctrine said:


> Suncor has been really hit - apparently many funds, who typically would have both SU and CNQ, have been shedding SU and in some cases shorting and going long CNQ. CNQ seems to be more popular because they are not exposed to refining margins, not suffering under a low price differential anymore, and are proving to be the low cost leader and also now the largest oil and nat gas producer in Canada.
> 
> But Suncor will be around too and I've been adding to my previous positions at $15 and $16 in the last few weeks, in addition to the shares I bought back in March/April. Suncor may take a bite at something in the next few months too like CNQ did with Pony.


I have been buying of late too. Started at $18 now with ACB low $16s. Booked some losses on OVV which is up 4x from March lows to buy SU at March lows.


----------



## Borat

larry81 said:


> Buy When There's Blood in the Streets
> View attachment 20224


XEG is now around 4.05, did you sell?


----------



## Spudd

I bought SU 2 days ago, the very next day it dropped by like 6%. Great stock picking by me! LOL. My stock tracking software says my CAGR is -1100%. Hah.


----------



## Eder

After getting a lucky $44 for my SU pre Covid I swore to stay away from any oil /gas producer forever. I may soon change my mind though.


----------



## robfordlives

Oil is in terminal decline. Sure there will be oil used for many decades but if you do a Discounted Cash Flow analysis for a long enough time frame it's a big fat zero. I liken it to tobacco companies BUT they have pricing power. The oil companies have none. The populous wants green energy no matter the cost and how inefficient it is versus oil or gas. They will get it and you will pay for it with your future taxes. 

Now add in the ESG movement where funds, countries, pension plans are not permitted to even own anything oil and it leaves you scratching your head at the question of who is left to buy this stuff??


----------



## Borat

robfordlives said:


> Oil is in terminal decline. Sure there will be oil used for many decades but if you do a Discounted Cash Flow analysis for a long enough time frame it's a big fat zero. I liken it to tobacco companies BUT they have pricing power. The oil companies have none. The populous wants green energy no matter the cost and how inefficient it is versus oil or gas. They will get it and you will pay for it with your future taxes.


I'm starting to view oil this way as well, but I'm not selling yet. Maybe one day I'll get my money back from XEG


----------



## doctrine

robfordlives said:


> Oil is in terminal decline. Sure there will be oil used for many decades but if you do a Discounted Cash Flow analysis for a long enough time frame it's a big fat zero. I liken it to tobacco companies BUT they have pricing power. The oil companies have none. The populous wants green energy no matter the cost and how inefficient it is versus oil or gas. They will get it and you will pay for it with your future taxes.
> 
> Now add in the ESG movement where funds, countries, pension plans are not permitted to even own anything oil and it leaves you scratching your head at the question of who is left to buy this stuff??


If all of what you said wasn't true, companies like Suncor and CNQ wouldn't be trading at 50% of book value. Their stock has been discounted as fast or faster than their future possible cash flows.

Projections now include declining oil consumption in every developed country in the world. These are the countries that will have first access to alternatives. However, that is not the case for the 6 billion people who are not in well developed countries and economies. They are going to be demanding much more coal, oil, and natural gas, as well as some renewables as well. A balance of models shows a most likely scenario of oil demand growing to 115M boe/day sometime between 2030 and 2040. I believe you can invest in XEG/SU/CNQ and profit from this future demand.

If you think oil demand will remain around 90-95M boe/d and decline further and that oil is done like dinner, then you can always stay away. Pretty easy. Maybe even short XEG.


----------



## AltaRed

I've postulated in the past (pre-pandemic) that oil demand would never exceed 105-110 million barrels per day before rolling over due to EVs taking on more momentum. I now believe it will barely exceed its previous record high of 100 million barrels per day before rolling over due to ICE efficiencies and EVs. There is almost no oil used for electrical generation now (isolated grids using coal or diesel excepted) so oil is not a factor in electrical generation anyway. Coal will be replaced by renewables and nat gas, mostly in the form of LNG. Many of the largest development projects in the world today are gas related along with XOM's Guyana oil developments.


----------



## larry81

Borat said:


> XEG is now around 4.05, did you sell?


Still holding XEG ! 325k profit so far 

Sold SU at 21 in september for a 39k profit, the bet underperformed the SP 500 

The canadian economy will be in the drain for a decade or more !


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Still holding XEG ! 325k profit so far
> 
> Sold SU at 21 in september for a 39k profit, the bet underperformed the SP 500
> 
> The canadian economy will be in the drain for a decade or more !


Congrats on still being long XEG. Wow +325K is... huge!

Are you "trading" this or do you plan to hold XEG for many years?



larry81 said:


> Buy When There's Blood in the Streets


Yeah but don't do it with: BBD.B , NT , GE , C , FNM , FRE , GM

Also wouldn't have worked with Canadian energy companies: AAV, BTE, ERF, GTE ... or maybe it will! I'll let people braver than me try buying those.


----------



## doctrine

Nice larry! I bought Suncor at ~$15 in March but then amazingly it went back to $15 in October for a full round trip - up 100%, down 50%. So I doubled down and now I have a pretty big position and THAT has definitely beat the S&P 500 in the last 3 weeks. I'm not likely going to hit your XEG profit numbers though!

I plan on holding SU until at least next summer. We'll see what oil prices do. I see little point in selling before oil gets solidly above $50, maybe $55 and perhaps as much as $60. I am quite certain (>80%) that SU will get back to the $40s within 1-2 years. I would probably be selling or trimming by then as I would be very overweight.


----------



## larry81

james4beach said:


> Congrats on still being long XEG. Wow +325K is... huge!
> 
> Are you "trading" this or do you plan to hold XEG for many years?


Not sure, Trudeau gov is openly anti-oil. I am not convinced that things are looking good for canadian producers.

That being said, almost +400k as of this morning. This is the part when an investor need to balance greed vs. realism 

I like my plain boring VUN/VCN/VIU/VEE better than XEG.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Not sure, Trudeau gov is openly anti-oil. I am not convinced that things are looking good for canadian producers.


Trudeau has nothing to do with the performance of your energy stocks. If you doubt that, just look at XEG (Canada) versus XLE (global energy) ... they correlate perfectly and have performed the same.


----------



## AltaRed

FWIW, some of you may have missed the news yesterday that the owners of Syncrude have decided to change operatorship to Suncor by the end of 2021. That will make a significant difference (reduction) in operating costs since Suncor can get more economies of scale. Syncrude will essentially become a 'normal' JV, likely a 'unit' in O&G parlance. That will cause all Syncrude employees to become employees of Suncor and redundant operations can be eliminated/reduced... as in maintenance, office A&G, etc. The goal, apparently, is to get operating costs of the joint complex down to $30/Bbl or perhaps even lower with new technology fully applied, e.g. driverless trucks.


----------



## larry81

james4beach said:


> Trudeau has nothing to do with the performance of your energy stocks. If you doubt that, just look at XEG (Canada) versus XLE (global energy) ... they correlate perfectly and have performed the same.


my god you are 100% right, thanks for the insight !

I should probably not invest in things that i dont properly understand.

I am no better than degerate gambler !

I blame COVID !


----------



## doctrine

AltaRed said:


> FWIW, some of you may have missed the news yesterday that the owners of Syncrude have decided to change operatorship to Suncor by the end of 2021. That will make a significant difference (reduction) in operating costs since Suncor can get more economies of scale. Syncrude will essentially become a 'normal' JV, likely a 'unit' in O&G parlance. That will cause all Syncrude employees to become employees of Suncor and redundant operations can be eliminated/reduced... as in maintenance, office A&G, etc. The goal, apparently, is to get operating costs of the joint complex down to $30/Bbl or perhaps even lower with new technology fully applied, e.g. driverless trucks.


This is pretty big news. Basically they can achieve $300M in cost efficiencies without having to acquire anything. 1/4 of the Husky/Cenovus synergies with zero dilution. $40-45 historic cash operating costs of Syncrude are just not cutting it and it is better to lose some jobs than all jobs.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> my god you are 100% right, thanks for the insight !


You're welcome. I'm so happy that you were able to learn something new.

(Not that you have)

That's the danger, larry, of stepping outside of one's ideological echo chamber. One starts encountering reality as indicated by data.


----------



## larry81

i was not being sarcastic james, the geopolitical actions involved in oil pricing is simply too complex.


----------



## Eder

I think Juniors anti oil stance is obvious.


----------



## larry81

Still holding my XEG position !

550k profit so far !


----------



## Eder

I'm jealous...all I get is these stupid 8-10% CAGR's.


----------



## larry81

+600k on XEG


----------



## doctrine

It is quite shocking that Suncor is at $22-23 when WTI is at $60 (nearly $61) and WCS is pushing $50. SU is the most compelling value on the TSX composite, in my opinion, especially given the size of the company, the assets, and the relatively low debt. Should probably be $35-40 at this point for more fair value. That's okay though, they will be buying back 50-70% more shares at this price and I believe the price will correct relatively quickly once those share buybacks pick up steam.


----------



## larry81

doctrine said:


> It is quite shocking that Suncor is at $22-23 when WTI is at $60 (nearly $61) and WCS is pushing $50. SU is the most compelling value on the TSX composite, in my opinion, especially given the size of the company, the assets, and the relatively low debt. Should probably be $35-40 at this point for more fair value. That's okay though, they will be buying back 50-70% more shares at this price and I believe the price will correct relatively quickly once those share buybacks pick up steam.


I am not sure why didnt raise with the others oilco and is lagging so much


----------



## AltaRed

As an integrated, it is not going to see the same trend as pure upstream producers do with crude price changes .Its refining and marketing business margins will be squeezed with crude price increases. Additionally, condensate blending and nat gas fuel costs go up as well. The reason folks own SU versus other producers is for the more 'balanced' nature of its operations.


----------



## peterk

larry81 said:


> I am not sure why didnt raise with the others oilco and is lagging so much


Consider the price change of a few companies from ~Dec 2019 to present.

Chevron: -23% (Integrate - Top Notch)
Exxon: -28% (Integrated - Almost top notch)
Suncor: - 43% (Integrated - Small - Low diversity of crude production and 2nd rate (high cost) Canadian refineries)
Shell: - 34% (Integrated - Green spending, Europe focused)
CNRL: -19% (Not Integrated - Upstream price fluctuations)

Suncor being at the bottom of the pack, but not too much worse-off, seems about right to me.


----------



## dubmac

doctrine said:


> It is quite shocking that Suncor is at $22-23 when WTI is at $60 (nearly $61) and WCS is pushing $50. SU is the most compelling value on the TSX composite,


I wonder whether the matter of ESG, climate change lobby etc weighs on the price. Same with coal. All these "dirty" sources are becoming pariahs on the market.


----------



## Eder

Yes...I wish the pimpled ones would check out "clean" sources such as Venezuela & Mexico...fat chance. They'd end up as garbage dump scarecrows.


----------



## doctrine

dubmac said:


> I wonder whether the matter of ESG, climate change lobby etc weighs on the price. Same with coal. All these "dirty" sources are becoming pariahs on the market.


No, Suncor is lagging other oil companies. ESG investors aren't deciding between which oil company is "dirtier" - they flee all of them. Suncor seems particularly unattractive - yet it was $28 in June with oil at $30 and now 18% lower with oil at $60. CNQ is up 20% since that time - a 38% difference. Although CNQ is also solid value.

And while the integrated model has some downsides, gasoline prices are moving steadily in just one direction - upwards. Not going to help that most Texas refineries just shut down. Gasoline stocks are down year over year, which is hard to believe and shows you how tight gasoline will be by May when everyone is driving.

It is certainly possible that more investors are getting out of Suncor; perception rather than fundamentals drives stocks short term. That is why I believe the share buybacks will fix the problem. Suncor is the first Canadian large oil company to start buybacks. Only a few worldwide are doing it at all now.


----------



## scorpion_ca

"Other changes include a 59% cut in exposure to *Wells Fargo & Co* (NYSE: WFC) and a 28% cut in *Suncor Energy Inc* (NYSE: SU) stake."



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-berkshire-cuts-apple-034604621.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMb2GAJ47Sp-1hd-_X8SF-nga4GlCqet5d-CFGMakWP1TEMPCgzH8iBh98JiKL9eyvN86B2oCwGK6REaWTeCWDkotku2qjKh9HVHY2T98WjPjgwk18J37cTnG49Uk-IOBZY2CknYI-JSewNWJdQuUuzdo3XQVe3vCXGZs0RK0-li


----------



## larry81

+700k as of today.

Surprise that XEG is rising while the rest of the market is tanking !

Ive heard the chatter about the new "oil supercycle"


----------



## doctrine

So now that Suncor is back at $26 is it now a sure thing?  

SU up 76% since Nov. Still a long way from $40. I think people are buying back into the SU story. 

Also, SU is starting their $1B buyback program, although I heard it may already have started. At current prices, given their guidance for 33% of further cash flow going into buybacks, I would think they are going to buy back closer to $1.5B of shares this year, maybe 5% of the company, plus drop below $15B of debt. When people realize 102% of oil consumption is returning, and SU is simultaneously buying back shares, it will drive prices up a lot.


----------



## Money172375

doctrine said:


> So now that Suncor is back at $26 is it now a sure thing?
> 
> SU up 76% since Nov. Still a long way from $40. I think people are buying back into the SU story.
> 
> Also, SU is starting their $1B buyback program, although I heard it may already have started. At current prices, given their guidance for 33% of further cash flow going into buybacks, I would think they are going to buy back closer to $1.5B of shares this year, maybe 5% of the company, plus drop below $15B of debt. When people realize 102% of oil consumption is returning, and SU is simultaneously buying back shares, it will drive prices up a lot.


What’s your target? I bought it for a quick buck. Sold my TFSA position yesterday. Down about 3% in my non-reg.


----------



## doctrine

Money172375 said:


> What’s your target? I bought it for a quick buck. Sold my TFSA position yesterday. Down about 3% in my non-reg.


$40 is my target by May/June. If the stock was >$45 now, it would be more fully valued. But it's not even close. I think we see $35-40 by early summer as demand really starts to pick up. 

My targets can change though - the longer we go with high oil prices, the higher I believe SU can go. I don't think oil is going lower unless there is another black swan.


----------



## larry81

doctrine said:


> So now that Suncor is back at $26 is it now a sure thing?


hahahah, this thread is a roller coaster !

i personally think there is a lot of upside for the whole energy sector.


----------



## hboy54

larry81 said:


> hahahah, this thread is a roller coaster !
> 
> i personally think there is a lot of upside for the whole energy sector.


Yes indeed. On a "money where your mouth is" basis nobody believes this more than me I suspect.


----------



## Retiredguy

Russ Girling (former TRP pres) running to be on SU's board


----------



## larry81

+900k as of today !


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Surprise that XEG is rising while the rest of the market is tanking !
> 
> Ive heard the chatter about the new "oil supercycle"


XEG is a beast lately. Congrats on your massive profit.

I forget, is this part of a diversified portfolio? If it is, I presume you'd want to take profits at some point and spread the money into more diversified investments: more stock sectors, and also bonds.

Or is the plan to continue with a highly concentrated energy/Suncor position? Are you not concerned about the downside of such a sector gamble?


----------



## doctrine

Given current market conditions and outlook, which are far better than anytime in the last 5 years, Suncor could be at or near it's 5 year high which is $50. So at $29.32, it could be 70% more and still arguably be undervalued. Suncor also makes money on the refining margin side and those are exploding higher with the massive outages in US refineries and gasoline stocks plummeting rapidly. I have a pretty big Suncor position myself and I don't think I would consider selling for a while given the upside. The general market definitely does not have 70% upside potential where it could remain undervalued at that price - that would be S&P 500 pushing 7000.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> I have a pretty big Suncor position myself and I don't think I would consider selling for a while given the upside.


XEG has been steadily outperforming SU on this rebound. Wouldn't you make more money in XEG?

Over the last year, SU is up 48% and XEG is up 126%
In the last 6 months, SU is up 65% and XEG is up 81%

It seems to me that ever since covid, Suncor is underperforming the sector.


----------



## peterk

Yeah you're right James. My prediction that SU would turn around harder than XEG isn't panning out. Glad I didn't sell my small holdings of XEG and CPG all along.. But I only added to SU, ENB, RDS and XOM in the past 1 year in the Energy sector instead of the index or smaller companies.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> XEG has been steadily outperforming SU on this rebound. Wouldn't you make more money in XEG?
> 
> Over the last year, SU is up 48% and XEG is up 126%
> In the last 6 months, SU is up 65% and XEG is up 81%
> 
> It seems to me that ever since covid, Suncor is underperforming the sector.


Yes, but I believe SU is unusually lagging and will catch up. Really, if oil goes up $80 this year, then XEG or anything in it will do well. But the refining margins and total gasoline demand that SU is more exposed to, and were particularly crushed last year, look very favourable now. They are also one of the few oil companies engaged in meaningful share buybacks which could rocket the share price up. So basically while there may have been a fundamental reason for SU to lag which reflected in the stock price, that looks like its reversing quite rapidly and should theoretically also reverse.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> XEG has been steadily outperforming SU on this rebound. Wouldn't you make more money in XEG?


Using hindsight trading ... yes, someone would have.


----------



## scorpion_ca

larry81 said:


> +900k as of today !


How much have you lost on Mar 18, 2021?


----------



## AltaRed

Someday when I have absolutely nothing to do I will thumb through ~10 years of posts. 

It is interesting that today's price is about where it was a few times back in 2011. A buy and hold investor would have gotten dividends. I do think this will move as soon as investors are confident these higher crude prices are here to stay...notwithstanding I see the downstream refining business likely to be in a long term funk (lower demand and lower refinery utilization factors perhaps forever).


----------



## doctrine

There have been probably a dozen days or more in the last year where Suncor had a move down of 5% or more. And even more intra-day moves. Such is life. The fundamentals are quite intact. Gasoline and oil markets are going to tighten significantly especially over the next 3-6 months. Supplies are drawing down by at least 3 million boe/d and maybe more like 4 million given recent demand surges in gasoline and jet fuel. Americans in particular are driving and flying more in the last two weeks than anytime since pre-COVID. And it's only March. Get ready.


----------



## larry81

scorpion_ca said:


> How much have you lost on Mar 18, 2021?


96,350 $


----------



## james4beach

Is anyone having second thoughts about whether the oil bull market is back? Maybe the whole thing was a bear market rally.

In any case, I could never invest in this way. I can't predict the future and don't think anyone can. In my case, I'm better off with a diversified portfolio of stocks & bonds & commodities (gold).

I've seen many people lose a lot of money doing this kind of sector / theme speculation over the years. Sometimes people gamble and win big, but that still doesn't make it a good idea.


----------



## doctrine

I'm not having second thoughts. $65 was obviously an aggressive price, but the fundamentals are pointing only one way. It's March and oil demand is already surging whereas oil and gasoline supplies are continuing to decline worldwide. Recent lockdowns in Europe suggest some demand may stagnate, and many refineries in Texas are still down, but this is just delaying the inevitable. 

People are driving and flying more than anytime since the pandemic began, and it's only March. I think prices in June and July will be far more indicative of the real underlying trend and I am happy to wait until then. My safety valve is sticking with the low debt and low cost operators like CNQ who can operate at maximum production down to $30 US WTI.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> I'm not having second thoughts. $65 was obviously an aggressive price, but the fundamentals are pointing only one way. It's March and oil demand is already surging whereas oil and gasoline supplies are continuing to decline worldwide. Recent lockdowns in Europe suggest some demand may stagnate, and many refineries in Texas are still down, but this is just delaying the inevitable.


Here's what I still don't understand about this kind of analysis. Surely, you aren't the only person who figured out the future.

Wouldn't everyone trade on this long ago, meaning that in an efficient market, current energy/futures prices already reflect the expectation?


----------



## AltaRed

Because it is not a sure thing. Commodities are notorious for not behaving as one would suspect (both up and down), and especially oil which is highly politicized/weaponized. WADR to Doctrine and I understand where s/he is coming from given a good portion of my career in O&G, but s/he sounds a lot like Eric Nuttal and Josef Schachter talking about a bull market in oil for some years now. They (and Doctrine) will be right but the question is when and how long is one willing to wait. Given the mult-year saga for oil not materializing, that is why the market lags potential results at this time.

I doubt very much that demand will go back to pre-pandemic levels, and if it does, it is a few years out and then will turn over within 5 years thereafter. Carbon taxes and the momentum towards renewables are here to stay.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> Wouldn't everyone trade on this long ago, meaning that in an efficient market, current energy/futures prices already reflect the expectation?


There's no such thing as an efficient market.


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> There's no such thing as an efficient market.


Well, maybe efficient market isn't the right term, but I would be concerned that people with more expert / inside knowledge than me have already traded and moved the price, to the point I'm at a disadvantage.

It's the same concern that holds me back from trying to time the stock index or interest rates. Even if I was knowledgeable in these fields, I'll bet that there are a whole bunch of people at Goldman Sachs with more data than me, plus crooked insider connections and contacts at the central banks. Even if I do tons of analysis, and worked in the field, I will be at a disadvantage versus these information experts & insiders.


----------



## doctrine

It may be that at $60 oil, all of this is now accounted for. I believe I am more realistic than the perma bulls. I have been in the trade while oil was under $30, and even held through negative pricing, so there you go. If $60 brings on enough oil supply then that will tank the price. It still looks to me like demand is going to come on much faster than supply for at least the next 6 months unless something fundamentally changes. Suncor in particular I still feel is individually underpriced by at least 40% and that name in particular has a lot of catchup to do, even if oil fell to $50.


----------



## Eder

I think oil usage in the US is about to erupt in the next few months...not sure if this is already baked into $60/barrel but this place should be back to pre Covid environment by July.


----------



## AltaRed

Eder said:


> I think oil usage in the US is about to erupt in the next few months...not sure if this is already baked into $60/barrel but this place should be back to pre Covid environment by July.


I suspect that could be true for the USA come the summer, provided there is not a 4th wave from the variants in the making (which it increasingly appears to be the case). I doubt the rest of the world is as impulsive as the USA is though. I don't disagree though that SU could be a $40 stock by late summer. Does not matter for me since I haven't directly owned a commodity stock for some years. Regardless, that really will not change the AB landscape much in terms of contractor activity and jobs. The prudent players in the industry will retire damaged balance sheets first.


----------



## larry81

Come on XEG do something ! The ticker has been treading water for more than a month !


----------



## MrBlackhill

Well +3% on XEG today is already something if it's sustainable.

My two Energy stocks each went up +5% today. They are both at +60% YTD. Can't complain.


----------



## doctrine

COVID vaccinations are accelerating, and other than India, infections and deaths are decreasing on every continent. It's just a matter of time before demand spikes.

Everyone is seeing what is happening in lumber and crop prices, as well as other areas where there is demand - huge price spikes because of shortages with little new capacity available. And nothing exceeds the capital investment costs of energy and oil. And those capital investments, which take 4-6 years for large projects, simply aren't being made. The last major projects from pre-2014 have already come online.

There isn't going to be oil for everyone when the world turns back on. It will require a price spike to mute demand. We're going to see what oil price the world can sustain before people stop driving.


----------



## AltaRed

There is still almost 10 million barrels per day being held off the market via OPEC+, so even if demand jumps from today's level back to pre-pandemic 100 million barrels per day, the supply is there....today. 

I do agree, however, that major investment is needed now to be able to sustain that supply going forward. Oil prices will be good for a number of years...so a bull market in oil in the near term but not a super commodity cycle or a decade or so. I even expect some price peaks/surges on a temporary basis while this sorts itself out. 

The USA is expecting spot gasoline shortages this summer....not because of crude supply or refining capacity, but a shortage of tank truck drivers after many of them left the industry in 2020. Could be a similar problem here. It is hard to get people back once they have left en masse for other pastures. It is the same kind of problem in any supply chain.


----------



## nathan79

AltaRed said:


> The USA is expecting spot gasoline shortages this summer....not because of crude supply or refining capacity, but a shortage of tank truck drivers after many of them left the industry in 2020. Could be a similar problem here. It is hard to get people back once they have left en masse for other pastures. It is the same kind of problem in any supply chain.


Shhh...! Gas prices here are already over $1.40 per litre, which is above pre-pandemic levels, despite the lessened demand. I've seen predictions of $1.70 by this summer in Vancouver, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go even higher.


----------



## bigmoneytalks

nathan79 said:


> Shhh...! Gas prices here are already over $1.40 per litre, which is above pre-pandemic levels, despite the lessened demand. I've seen predictions of $1.70 by this summer in Vancouver, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go even higher.


Let's not forget the carbon taxes that have been added....


----------



## larry81

Suncor just posted Q1 earnings, total blowout: 0.49 EPS (0.32 expected)









Suncor Energy reports first quarter 2021 results


Unless otherwise noted, all financial figures are unaudited, presented in Canadian dollars (Cdn$), and have been prepared in accordance with International...




www.globenewswire.com


----------



## Eder

I know I was paying over $1.65 a couple years ago in West Van ...thats when Horgan spent tax money on trying to find out why Vancouver fuel cost so much lol.


----------



## Eder

larry81 said:


> Suncor just posted Q1 earnings, total blowout: 0.49 EPS (0.32 expected)


That's great news for all of Canada...impressed that they had their upgrader cooking along at 97%...must be a record.


_*Oil Sands operations Crown royalties have been updated from 1% – 3% to 4% – 6% and Syncrude Crown royalties have been updated from 2% – 4% to 9% – 12%.*_

Looks like Kenneys coffers will start to tinkle again soon.

CNQ reports Thursday...hope they are on the spring board as well.


----------



## doctrine

What's not to like?

-Huge buybacks - 12 million shares in Q1, almost 400k a day.
-Still paid down $1B of debt in the quarter
-This in a quarter where WTI was substantially lower than current quarter;
-Capital expenditures are less than half pre-COVID. Pre-COVID, SU was regularly spending $1B+ a quarter on growth initiatives, now less than $300M.
-Extra profits continue to funnel into 2/3 debt reduction, 1/3 extra buybacks

This quarter is in line with virtually every other oil company - far less capital expenditures confirmed. I think buybacks are the way to go and SU is on a slow march back to $40+. I also think oil prices are heading to the moon because of sustained lack of capital investment. India is the only major country in the world with an uncontrolled COVID outbreak, and that may even be peaking now. USA has commenced export of vaccines - the beginning of the end.


----------



## larry81

Currently sitting on a 922k profit on my XEG position.

On track to 1M


----------



## robertsclak

doctrine said:


> What's not to like?
> 
> -Huge buybacks - 12 million shares in Q1, almost 400k a day.
> -Still paid down $1B of debt in the quarter
> -This in a quarter where WTI was substantially lower than current quarter;
> -Capital expenditures are less than half pre-COVID. Pre-COVID, SU was regularly spending $1B+ a quarter on growth initiatives, now less than $300M.
> -Extra profits continue to funnel into 2/3 debt reduction, 1/3 extra buybacks
> 
> This quarter is in line with virtually every other oil company - far less capital expenditures confirmed. I think buybacks are the way to go and SU is on a slow march back to $40+. I also think oil prices are heading to the moon because of sustained lack of capital investment. India is the only major country in the world with an uncontrolled COVID outbreak, and that may even be peaking now. USA has commenced export of vaccines - the beginning of the end.


Only one thing controls the price of oil OPEC!!!!!


----------



## Eder

larry81 said:


> Currently sitting on a 922k profit on my XEG position.
> 
> On track to 1M


Gonna be a good payday to the Shiny Pony Guy too lol.
Anyway nice...I just don't have the balls for this but am happy to see someone hit a homer!


----------



## doctrine

robertsclak said:


> Only one thing controls the price of oil OPEC!!!!!


That is actually not true for the last 6-8 years - US shale oil has been in control of the price of oil since at least 2014 when production surged. OPEC tried twice to break shale but the US is still the #1 oil producer in the world despite going from 13 mboe/day to 11 mboe/day. Now shale has been a spectacular money losing initiative to the tune of $300-400 billion, but there you go. Some private shale companies are in a last surge of production now, likely attempting to juice their numbers to sell to public companies. 

CNQ has broken solidly above the early March highs and I think Suncor will too on its way back to >$40.


----------



## robertsclak

doctrine said:


> That is actually not true for the last 6-8 years - US shale oil has been in control of the price of oil since at least 2014 when production surged. OPEC tried twice to break shale but the US is still the #1 oil producer in the world despite going from 13 mboe/day to 11 mboe/day. Now shale has been a spectacular money losing initiative to the tune of $300-400 billion, but there you go. Some private shale companies are in a last surge of production now, likely attempting to juice their numbers to sell to public companies.
> 
> CNQ has broken solidly above the early March highs and I think Suncor will too on its way back to >$40.


I hold cnq and suncor but am very wary of OPEC and their proposed production quotas and weather they honor these .I believe the price of oil is extremely fragile and we are at OPEC's mercy.I realize they have to limit production to maintain their price but they can loose control of themselves.


----------



## AltaRed

OPEC+ still controls (or at least has the primary influence on) price. Regardless of how much oil the USA pumps, OPEC is the decision maker whether they want to flood the market to push price down to penalize western producers or to let prices rise which then will temper demand growth and for a time, shore up their own Treasuries. The problem, as has been stated many times, is that petro-countries like SA, Russia, Iraq et al fundamentally count on oil revenues to fund national budgets. They can only ride out reduced revenues for so long before cheating becomes the norm. It is going to be that way for decades I think with western producers having a smaller share of global supply (demand) as the years roll by. Which is why it is most important that western producers work on improving margins on existing production rather than trying to increase production. It won't end well if they continue to pursue increased volume.


----------



## larry81

Currently sitting on a 1,121,632 CAD$ profit on my original XEG position 

Rational behavior would be to sell the position or at least trim it by 50%. However, i think there is still more upside potential in the OIL sector and with commodities as a whole !

Still holding


----------



## Retiredguy

Trudeau says sell he wants another 280k to squander.


----------



## hboy54

larry81 said:


> Currently sitting on a 1,121,632 CAD$ profit on my original XEG position
> 
> Rational behavior would be to sell the position or at least trim it by 50%. However, i think there is still more upside potential in the OIL sector and with commodities as a whole !
> 
> Still holding


Very likely. I have trimmed back OVV and PEY in favour of more conservative SU and less conservative but underweight BTE, so have perhaps left some money on the table. Doing fine though as portfolio is up 56% since YE 2019.


----------



## doctrine

All O&G is doing pretty good. Suncor has the most upside in my opinion of any large cap and maybe even mid-caps. It was a $55 stock in March 2018 when WTI was $60. And it is starting to pop now.

So despite being up 43% year to date, Suncor still has 80% upside to get where it was when oil was $10 a barrel cheaper. The stock buybacks are unrelenting and going to look like a steal when Suncor is back above $40.


----------



## robertsclak

doctrine said:


> All O&G is doing pretty good. Suncor has the most upside in my opinion of any large cap and maybe even mid-caps. It was a $55 stock in March 2018 when WTI was $60. And it is starting to pop now.
> 
> So despite being up 43% year to date, Suncor still has 80% upside to get where it was when oil was $10 a barrel cheaper. The stock buybacks are unrelenting and going to look like a steal when Suncor is back above $40.


I bought full position in SU at 18$ then added more at 27$.I feel 36$ is a can't miss,and 44$ is not a stretch.They are making serious money with WCS at or above 50$


----------



## larry81

+1,203,882 CAD$ from my initial 235,000 shares position 

Still holding !


----------



## MrBlackhill

larry81 said:


> +1,203,882 CAD$ from my initial 235,000 shares position
> 
> Still holding !


So I understand that you are at about +120% ?

What's your plan to sell? I would hold it through the summer and sell during August. But that's just a gut-feeling, I'm absolutely no expert of the energy sector.

I've sold OVV.TO too early last month after a +270%. If I had held it one more month, I'd be at +380%.

Still holding SCL.TO though.


----------



## Retiredguy

If my back of the envelope arithmetic is correct you have a ACB of about 26.00 and looking back in this thread you were buying at $26 .... 10 years ago. While the actual dollars are a very nice amount for sure, the % over that time appears to be less than optimal. SU hasn't split since 2008 so that can't be it. If 235000 shs was your "initial" position something seems odd here. Must be a lot more to the story.


----------



## AltaRed

Larry is talking about XEG. If he bought 235,000 shares at $4.36 as per post #772, it's done more than a double ($5) to June 15th ($9.35).

The story is bragging rights.


----------



## larry81

Yes i sold SU a while ago with a profit but that bet underperformed the SP500.

I am talking about my XEG holding


----------



## larry81

MrBlackhill said:


> I've sold OVV.TO too early last month after a +270%. If I had held it one more month, I'd be at +380%.
> 
> Still holding SCL.TO though.


I will hold the XEG position through the summer, still not sure when i want/plan to sell.

The global sentiment on OIL is bullish


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/here-comes-100-oil-prices-bof-a-strategist-172630376.html




https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-oil-prices-may-shoot-at-least-15-higher-goldman-sachs-130028408.html


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> I will hold the XEG position through the summer, still not sure when i want/plan to sell.


Congrats larry on this XEG position. I've traded it a bit over the years, but never caught as good a rally as you've caught here.

Assuming you're for real and not just having fun with fake numbers online...

It's good to have an exit strategy. Mainly this is about emotions, so that you don't let your emotions or beliefs (or attachment) get in the way of making money. The goal here is to *make money*, not to prove a point to anyone. Exit strategies help take emotion out of the game.

One idea, as you mentioned already, is to liquidate half the position and stay invested with the rest.

Another idea are the "moving averages", which I find are useful indicators of when a trend is alive or dead. It's all pretty arbitrary but as an example, you could use the 200 day exponential moving average, and sell the moment XEG drops below that level.

If you want a more sensitive trigger finger, then you can shorten that to the 100 day exponential moving average. The nice thing about this technique is that as long as the nice uptrend continues, you stay in.

The mechanics of an exit strategy are simple. You just have to decide on one. The hard part is executing on your strategy and following through with it, and fighting your emotions and attachments.

This chart shows XEG with the 100 day exponential moving average. I think this is likely a good way to identify the end of the current rally.


----------



## james4beach

Zooming into the same technical indicator described above. Another tip is to simultaneously monitor XLE (American / multinationals) since they are all closely related. The advantage of watching XLE is that you might see that one drop below the trend line before XEG does.

That would give you an early warning sign and get you ready for imminent selling. If XLE drops below its exponential moving average, it's likely that XEG will as well.


----------



## Spudd

James, just curious, why do you use the EMA instead of the SMA?


----------



## james4beach

Spudd said:


> James, just curious, why do you use the EMA instead of the SMA?


I've used both and it doesn't really matter too much. The EMA has an exponential response so it's better at responding quickly to changes, so it might be better suited for very volatile markets like energy.

But I also really like using the 200 day simple moving average.


----------



## larry81

all good infos james as always !

My problem is: exit the XEG position and then what ?

As you probably know, i hold a very boring boring portfolio consisting of VUN, VCN, VIU, VEE with a sprinkle of ZRE. If i sell my XEG holding i would simply put back the cash in my vanguard ETF's and spread it according to my asset allocation.

My rationale for continuing to hold XEG is asking the following question: Is there potentially more upside left in XEG then in my vanguard indexs funds ? At the moment the answer is still yes !

Also, this is in a taxable account, if i sell now ill have a large tax bill early 2022 !

My strategy (at the moment) is to continue to hold the damn bag at least until the new year !


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> My problem is: exit the XEG position and then what ?


If it was me, and if this XEG position was quite large versus my "regular portfolio" I would sell *some* XEG very soon and redeploy that money into the whole asset allocation mix. How much to sell? I would sell enough to shrink the XEG position down to a size that it's not insanely large versus the rest of my portfolio.

e.g. maybe scale XEG down to the point where it's only 10% to 20% of your total investments (all ETFs combined).

Or if XEG is already a small % of your overall ETF total, then maybe you can leave it alone. I have no idea how wealthy you are. Maybe you've got a $20 million portfolio, in which case your $2 million XEG position is not outlandish and can be left alone.

But that's the way I would manage this, if it was my own money. I would look at the overall portfolio of all stock positions and decide how large the % XEG weight should be. For example, I do a bit of market timing in foreign markets (which is risky and speculative) and decided to make it 5% of my total. I also have some aggressive Canadian stock picks, and those are 4% of my total.

So in my case, I have 9% in this speculative, risky stuff. It used to be higher, but I scaled it down to a level that I think is reasonable.


----------



## larry81

This is a large amount for everyone including me but i am fortunate enough that, while significant, its not a major holding in my overall portfolio. I used the rationale that XEG "is part of my canadian equities allocation".


----------



## AltaRed

Don't let the cap gains tax tail wag the dog. Be prudent on when to exit XEG and in what increments. XEG might have room to run to $15 but the rocket ship is losing its stages and the next $5 will be quite slow getting there. I'd split the bill 50/50 2021 and 2022, exiting the position in 2022 as the runway ends into the overall market.


----------



## doctrine

larry81 said:


> My rationale for continuing to hold XEG is asking the following question: Is there potentially more upside left in XEG then in my vanguard indexs funds ? At the moment the answer is still yes !


Targetting XEG on technicals is a little challenging, because the index has changed quite a bit. The real oil story will be told in the next seasonal cycle, from Jan-Jun 22; when OPEC is back at max production. Can the rest of the world produce 102-104 million BOE/D without supermajors, Canada, or US shale oil growth? Almost universally, analysts say no, or at least it will take 5+ years. I'm waiting to see how that party turns out. SU/CNQ/ERF are my individual holdings.


----------



## james4beach

james4beach said:


> If you want a more sensitive trigger finger, then you can shorten that to the 100 day exponential moving average. The nice thing about this technique is that as long as the nice uptrend continues, you stay in.


Well things have changed over the last month and XEG is down quite a bit. Yesterday, XLE fell below the 100 day EMA and today XEG fell below it as well.

Now the hard part... figuring out if this is a minor correction, or if the big rally in energy is over (for now).


----------



## doctrine

Fundamentally, the oil market is heavily undersupplied by between 1-3 mboe/d, even after OPEC increases. Is this going to change? Not really, but it is a slow process and we won't run out of oil tomorrow.

Oil is always weak this time of year as most of the hype and news on re-opening and summer vacation is behind. It may be a struggle to see high prices into December; but next year could be the really huge rip. If the world recovers oil consumption, and OPEC maxes capacity, and we are still short 2-3 mboe/d (or more), that is a recipe for $100 oil.


----------



## gardner

Having sold my IPL, I am now quite underweight in my energy holdings. I have a good deal of SU still -- holding at a substantial loss position. I am considering using my IPL money to average down on SU. Energy related stocks have just been killed in the last few years. It is hard to believe there are not brighter days ahead somehow.


----------



## Retiredguy

Today. Aug 9th, 2021
SU. 24.27
XEG. 7.78


----------



## scorpion_ca

Retiredguy said:


> Today. Aug 9th, 2021
> SU. 24.27
> XEG. 7.78


I hope it goes down to $15 and $4 that I can start to buy some shares...


----------



## AltaRed

Why? If Doctrine is right, you have a potential 2 bagger on both at current prices.

P.S. My nickel would be on some more softness from current prices through approximately the end of this year, including tax loss selling season and concerns about the Delta variant. Then a turnaround after that.


----------



## m3s

dogleg said:


> *Is Suncor a Sure Thing at $26.00 ?*


I guess it depends on your time horizon. Try again next decade


----------



## Retiredguy

scorpion_ca said:


> I hope it goes down to $15 and $4 that I can start to buy some shares...


Do you own any now or when did you last own any?


----------



## scorpion_ca

Retiredguy said:


> Do you own any now or when did you last own any?


I don't buy individual stock for investing. I buy ETF for that. I may buy SU or XEG for the above-mentioned prices for gambling.


----------



## Retiredguy

scorpion_ca said:


> I don't buy individual stock for investing. I buy ETF for that. I may buy SU or XEG for the above-mentioned prices for gambling.


Just wondering why you didn't buy SU last Oct when it was 15? If the answer was in anyway because you thought the world was in a mess...etc. Why would your thinking be any different if it dropped to 15 again. You'll make the most money buying when it hurts the most, but fear of it dropping more stops most people.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> My rationale for continuing to hold XEG is asking the following question


Well now there is great news for @larry81 and @scorpion_ca ... you have another chance to make a lot of money (assuming you are able to predict the market)

XEG is now looking very weak, just fell below its 200 day moving average. So the question is: do you think the bull market in energy is over? Or if this is just a breather, then I guess you'd want to start buying more.


----------



## doctrine

The underlying fundamentals haven't changed. Strong and growing demand, shrinking inventories everywhere. I believe the market is anticipating major COVID shutdowns this fall and associated decreased demand. Regardless, whenever the next rally starts, it is from a far better place than a year ago. China, India, and even the US are drawing down strategic reserves. And inventories everywhere below 2014-2019 averages. With capital investment remaining at far below replacement levels. The consequences are inevitable. Biden was crying mercy at $75, I can't wait until the next seasonal period because 2022 is going to be something else.

I have lots of oil exposure but I am thinking of adding more. I usually move too early, so my normal rule now is to wait until at least they are above the 10 day moving average, and maybe 20 day too.


----------



## Retiredguy

james4beach said:


> Well now there is great news for @larry81 and @scorpion_ca ... you have another chance to make a lot of money (assuming you are able to predict the market)


The underlying fundamentals are that Larry has dropped $448000 since his June 23rd posting based on his reported 235K shares and todays 7.23 sh value. I'm sure he'll be over joyed at not selling then as he would have had to pay about 120K more in taxes next April. Something about chickens comes to mind, along with a certain Kenny Rogers tune.
Disclosure: Been there done that!


----------



## AltaRed

doctrine said:


> I have lots of oil exposure but I am thinking of adding more. I usually move too early, so my normal rule now is to wait until at least they are above the 10 day moving average, and maybe 20 day too.


So which do you act on? Your view of the fundamentals or technical analysis? Or is it really just gut?


----------



## MrBlackhill

Retiredguy said:


> The underlying fundamentals are that Larry has dropped $448000 since his June 23rd posting based on his reported 235K shares and todays 7.23 sh value. I'm sure he'll be over joyed at not selling then as he would have had to pay about 120K more in taxes next April. Something about chickens comes to mind, along with a certain Kenny Rogers tune.
> Disclosure: Been there done that!


I'm holding an Energy stock which has dropped -33% since the beginning of June 2021, but it's up +24% YTD. Actually, it's up +142% since the beginning of June 2020.

Have I lost money or made money?

I don't anchor to the ATH during a 1-year period. I just look at where I was a year ago and where I am now.


----------



## doctrine

AltaRed said:


> So which do you act on? Your view of the fundamentals or technical analysis? Or is it really just gut?


I am more fundamental but I will consider some technical analysis in major buying decisions during major selloffs. XEG has been below both the 10 and 20 day moving averages for almost 6 weeks, which is the longest since March 2020. Being patient so far has kept my finger off the trigger while XEG has fallen 20%+ in that period.

As I said, I have holdings already. I just think the current selloff is a buying opportunity given my thesis, but in my experience, the "buying opportunity" is around for a while, so there is no need to be hasty.


----------



## Retiredguy

MrBlackhill said:


> I'm holding an Energy stock which has dropped -33% since the beginning of June 2021, but it's up +24% YTD. Actually, it's up +142% since the beginning of June 2020.
> 
> Have I lost money or made money?
> 
> I don't anchor to the ATH during a 1-year period. I just look at where I was a year ago and where I am now.


You're not Larry gloating about a million dollar + "gain" on June 23 and telling us why he's not selling. Mathematically according to his posts he's still up substantially... so good for him, but no IMO (he and you) haven't made or lost anything until the stock is sold and taxes are factored.


----------



## MrBlackhill

The Case for a Longer-Term Oil and Gas Bull Market







www.lynalden.com


----------



## james4beach

Ad hoc speculation in sectors has never worked for me, over the years. I have just found that I can't predict the future.

A few years ago, I remember watching experts and insiders in the energy + mining sectors trade their sectors, and fail at it. Boy did they do terribly. If people who know these sectors well can't trade them successfully, why would I be able to?

Something similar happened in tech when all kinds of tech experts and insiders (including people I work with) did horribly in tech from 2000 to 2010. Clearly, knowing a lot about a sector, or working in it, does not give someone trading skills.


----------



## AltaRed

MrBlackhill said:


> The Case for a Longer-Term Oil and Gas Bull Market
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.lynalden.com


Nice link. Written from a slightly different perspective than most but overly optimistic in my view of oil's longevity. I did not read it super carefully but the key point missing on oil specifically was the will and ability of sovereign oil to outlast any publicly traded companies. They will eventually be pushed out of countries with mature O&G industries that they are currently in like Angola, Azerbaijan, Nigeria and Malaysia by state oil companies. They may have more staying power in newer basins like Brazil and Guyana but even then state oil companies like Petrobras will push out the majors in Brazil.

Here is a chart of "current" oil production by country. Oil Production by Country The chart is not up to date though because the new production out of Guyana (>120kpd) is not on the chart.


----------



## james4beach

Any changes to these predictions? How about @larry81 

Is XEG heading up or down from here? If someone gets this right, they can make a small fortune at this point.

I really want to trade (gamble on) XEG but am restraining myself and will watch from the sidelines.


----------



## doctrine

I've said this above but now is typically the low point in the cycle for oil as the summer driving season ends and refineries begin to shut down for maintenance. For the next 4 months, most predictions are for continuing inventory declines despite all the noise. The next cycle begins anew in Dec/Jan. Oil companies are generating enormous amounts of cash at current levels in the meantime. COVID rates seem to be topping in the UK and US, which may be positive as well, and may lead the way for next year, showing that there is a post-COVID world where countries can open and not overwhelm (although maybe stretch) hospitals.

Natural gas is another story as it's already ripping and may support XEG as well. Inventories are low everywhere, demand is soaring faster than oil, and supply is not coming online. Heading for $5/mmbtu in NA - it's been well above $15 in Europe and Asia all summer. If winter is anything but warm, those prices are heading north and some Canadian O&G could be printing cash as fast as the fed.

I'm happy with my SU, CNQ, and ERF combo for now. Still thinking of adding some more exposure over the next few months if stock prices stay around here or drop further.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> I've said this above but now is typically the low point in the cycle for oil


Are you the only person who knows this, or is it widely known?

And if it's widely known, wouldn't institutional investors already move the prices accordingly?


----------



## doctrine

Yes, it's one of the most widely known seasonal trends, and yes traders do and have pretty clearly been moving on it. I'm not really trading on it short term (<1 yr), I'm more interested in the 1-2+ year picture.

There are two worlds colliding here - reality, which is the world economy operates solely on oil, and dream land, where governments and activists and investors have united and successfully convinced virtually every oil company in the world, including the super major international ones, to stop reinvesting in their business. In dream land, the 2030's and 2040's with massive EV production have already arrived. The scary thing is that it has worked and oil companies really have stopped growing oil production and in many cases are shrinking.

It's going to be popcorn time soon to watch politicians squeal as the reality of scarce oil and expensive energy hits voters in the pocket. It's already starting at the periphery. Biden's cry to OPEC for mercy on high gasoline prices mere months after cancelling a fully funded and approved oil pipeline direct to the heart of the US refinery complex was just the beginning.


----------



## AltaRed

I might add to Doctrine's post that while it is one of the most widely known seasonal trends, traders cannot bet the farm on this trend because there is always an off-chance that OPEC+ (namely SA) could upset the apple cart to wipe traders out or at least neuter them making 'all out' bets. It's a business risk no one can fully take.

Biden's unabashed about face is a classic case of livelihood trumping ideology.


----------



## james4beach

AltaRed said:


> I might add to Doctrine's post that while it is one of the most widely known seasonal trends, traders cannot bet the farm on this trend because there is always an off-chance that OPEC+ (namely SA) could upset the apple cart to wipe traders out


Good point. Seasonal trends are vague averages over many years, but some surprise can always blow away the trade.

I've never believed in placing seasonal or pattern-based trades. Seems overly simplistic in a complex market where the world is full of surprises. Reminds me of when people said the stock market can't possibly go down in an election year as the market is up in 83% of US election years.

And I actually remember some people aggressively going long in 2008 because of this "reliable pattern". Oops.


----------



## AltaRed

Getting back to Suncor specifically, I see they are making a commitment to re-starting Terra Nova offshore NF and looking to increase their interest in White Rose (I think). I highly question their rationale for doing so given how marginal these fields are economically without heavy NF and Federal subsidization/support. This is obviously now a social project to keep some GDP generation going in NF. It is not a very comfortable place for a publicly traded corporation to be wrapped up in for years, perhaps a decade or more, to come.

OTOH, for Suncor and partners, they have to be banking on strong oil prices for some years to come and the risk/reward is worth it. I understand ExxonMobil has exited their interests in those fields, focusing instead on much better prospects in Guyana.

Added: For full disclosure, I said I would never own commodities again after having tinkered in a few holdings (POT, TCK.B, COS, CNQ) somewhat in the 2005-2015 period. I will admit to now having Suncor on my Alert list at around $20 CAD which I would actually buy on the NYSE with loose USD I have on hand if the loonie also continues to fall more from current levels as well. I would be looking for a 'trade', e.g. buy at $15-16 USD, journal it over and sell on TSX in 2022 at about $30 CAD. I wonder what the odds of that happening might be in the next year or so?


----------



## Eder

In the past it has not taken much news to drive Suncor over 40$. 
A conservative pm would add to the share price immediately.
I’m not going there again though.


----------



## AltaRed

I doubt an O'Tole win would realistically result in a major sustained improvement in Suncor's price. It ultimately comes down to oil prices, and investor sentiment on cash flow and earnings growth. No more pipelines are going to be built and investor pressure for ESG metrics will keep financing under pressure. The only relief that could come from a change in gov't might be carbon taxes in some form. SU needs to improve its net margin through cost reduction, i.e. margin improvement will be the key success factor separating the men from the boys.


----------



## doctrine

Both these projects, Terra Nova and White Rose West, have either the government or Cenovus paying Suncor to be involved. There is very little capital risk for Suncor, and it's not even a big part of their company. It's a nothingburger. And both are well established projects with significant money in the ground, so the risk isn't really that much and Suncor walks in to pick up easy margin.

Both the US and China are now releasing oil from their strategic reserves to keep prices down. That can't last forever, and if the world's oil tanks weren't overflowing in April 2020 then we would already be where natural gas, coal, uranium, and countless other commodities are at - multi-year or record highs and heading higher, not lower. What would these oil stocks look like when oil inevitably hits its all time high too at ~$150 a barrel?


----------



## newfoundlander61

I originally purchased Suncor for a long term hold and steady dividend income but it seems that this pick wasn't my best. Purchased in Feb 2019 @ $44.38 it doesn't seem likely it will ever get back to that price in my life time  I have been thinking is it time to sell it and move on. Its held in a TFSA , the dividend income collected so far is $2,300 which will include this months payment. I don't need the money but sometimes replacing a down stock is an option. I am down about $18,700 approx which is a good amount of money, thankfully almost all of my other stocks are up plently to cushion this one. For example CPX was purchase @ $28.90, yesterdays close $44.01. Another is Loblaws purchased @ $67.26, yesterdays close $91.29. You can't get them all right.


----------



## AltaRed

I doubt we will see these big oil stocks back to their all time highs, and even if so, not for any length of time. I do think Suncor can hit $40 (or more) temporarily sometime in 2022 or 2023, but not for more than a few years unless they divert much of their cash flow into share buybacks. There just is no longer any firm conviction of continued unbridled growth in what is now perceived as a sunset industry subject to all kinds of ESG buffering, be it carbon taxes of one form or another, or the ability to find financing.

It won't matter that there will be peaks in oil prices well over $100 (and I agree with Doctrine this is entirely plausible) because that will just accelerate permanent conversion to alternatives faster. The temporarily increased net margins generating obscene amounts of cash flow will be fleeting. Once an industry or a consumer has switched off petroleum (demand destruction) to electrified, hydrogen, or CNG, they won't be coming back.

The point is there is not a growth story to oil. It is a margin story and it will be somewhat fleeting. Just like a recent article in the G&M said, the oil industry is now finding it harder to attract enough workers back into the industry because the first question is: How long will this job last? The best thing the oils can do, as I have said many times, is to work to increase net margins, not grow production, and they will have a fighting chance of increasing, or at least sustaining, shareholder wealth.

More than ever, the oil stocks will be "trades", not "buy and hold". Which is my sentiment on a possible Suncor play in post #895. Natural gas is likely a better place to be and will likely hold up much longer. It still is the preferred replacement via LNG for coal, especially in SE Asia and China et al.

Added: I disagree with Doctrine on Terra Nova and White Rose. These are marginal at best relative to alternatives elsewhere in the world. It is true Suncor and Cenovus will not 'lose' money on these due to taxpayer support (very expensive NL jobs and votes being bought) but they are fleeting cash flow vehicles longer term. I believe they will be gone within 10 years and subject to abandonment costs. These become management distractions from the bigger picture of consolidating and focusing businesses that the oil majors know all too well.


----------



## hboy54

Suncor is currently of a canine nature in energy names. Still down ~20% from 12 month high while other energy names are hitting 12 month highs today.


----------



## AltaRed

While XEG is hanging around at late 2018 (and early 2020) levels for now (while also at almost 3 times its Mar 2020 low). It is not clear to me why SU lags so much albeit its production cost base is higher than competitors and I think it is more integrated with its retail chain than its major competitors (CNQ and CVE).


----------



## doctrine

Sometimes I feel like a repeat recording, but every piece of data released just reinforces my thesis, and always with more bullish data than I thought. US crude oil stockpiles are at 6 year lows, and are now below the 2010-2014 average when oil was $100. Every blip is temporary noise or artificial market distortion, like China cutting crude imports that now leave them low in refined products and forced to release strategic reserves. Oil supplies are tight in what is supposed to be the weakest part of the year and before most of the world has fully re-opened. What happens next year?

Suncor has some issues at Fort Hill but that is more than baked into the price, they can generate enormous cash even with Fort Hill in the dumps. And you can free optionality if they sort it out like they say they will by early next year. Heading up now towards 2 month highs - good technicals finally even though they are such a laggard in the index.

IMO, Suncor is an easy $40 and maybe even $50 next year as they continue to buy back shares every single day at an accelerating rate - from 300-350k in Jun/July to now 500k a day. Great total return profile.


----------



## DenisD

Oil and Gas producers (top 70% by market cap) with a reduction in shares outstanding during the previous 6 months (Mon 1-6) or the 6 months before that (Mon 7-12). Numbers are percentages. SU shares were reduced by 2.7% during the previous 6 months. Data is from portfolio123.com.



Code:


Ticker   Name                            MktCap      Yield    Mon 1-6   Mon 7-12
PXT      Parex Resources Inc              2,516        2.5        3.5        6.5
SU       Suncor Energy Inc.              35,140        3.6        2.7        0.0
CNE      Canacol Energy Ltd                 591        6.3        1.3        0.6
FEC      Frontera Energy Corporation        677        0.0        1.2       -0.3
PSK      PrairieSky Royalty Ltd           3,014        2.7        0.0        3.8
POU      Paramount Resources Ltd          2,181        1.5       -1.5        0.9
FO       Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd               142        0.0       -7.5        7.0
LXE      Leucrotta Exploration Inc          168        0.0      -26.2        2.9
PSH      PetroShale Inc                     135        0.0     -176.6        2.2


----------



## larry81

winter is coming, price are going up !

WTI @ 80-90 EoY !


----------



## hboy54

It seems all energy and near energy ie MX have been rocketing higher past 3 weeks or so. Except SU.


----------



## investor65

Eric Nuttall bought 1 million SU on Thurs. That explains the huge jump Thurs. He revealed this Fri.









Eric Nuttall discusses Suncor Energy


Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, discusses Suncor Energy.




www.bnnbloomberg.ca





I've been looking at this for a week now and was gonna buy in, but then Evergrande happened, making me cautious. Energy stocks can be volatile.
This stock is clearly undervalued, but Nuttall's endorsement is the confirmation I needed. He never buys big caps. He only goes for mid and small cap energy with bit potential gain. Heck he doesn't even own CNQ, so it's pretty telling that he bought big on SU.

I believe there will be a dividend increase soon.


----------



## doctrine

investor55 said:


> Eric Nuttall bought 1 million SU on Thurs. That explains the huge jump Thurs. He revealed this Fri.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Eric Nuttall discusses Suncor Energy
> 
> 
> Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, discusses Suncor Energy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bnnbloomberg.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I've been looking at this for a week now and was gonna buy in, but then Evergrande happened, making me cautious. Energy stocks can be volatile.
> This stock is clearly undervalued, but Nuttall's endorsement is the confirmation I needed. He never buys big caps. He only goes for mid and small cap energy with bit potential gain. Heck he doesn't even own CNQ, so it's pretty telling that he bought big on SU.
> 
> I believe there will be a dividend increase soon.


SU could increase their dividend today, but I believe the base case is that it will be Q1 next year before they re-commence annual dividend increases - they are typically very conservative. But make no mistake, they are starting to overflow in cash like every other oil company - their corporate guidance is based on $65 WTI which hasn't been in play since May, so their cash flows are accelerating and you never know what they will do, but I am pleased they have a variable buyback program that has nearly doubled since May in daily purchases, and that debt levels are also dropping faster than planned.

SU isn't my only oil company, I also have CNQ shares I bought as low as $11 (now $44+) last year at the pandemic lows, and ERF shares at $2.60 (now $9+) in Oct 2020. Nutall's ERF target is $22 which would be approaching a 10 bagger for me. Suncor is practically the last oil company to start moving up. It's only a matter of time - they make too much money and don't have that much debt.


----------



## newfoundlander61

A while back he said not to buy Suncor so this is a big turn around for sure for him.


----------



## investor65

I don't want to sound like a cheerleader for SU, or for any other stock for that matter. My job as an investor is to look objectively and soberly at the facts. All the facts seem to tell me that this is one of my best investment options right now. The Nuttuall endorsement really cemented it for me. I plan to buy alot more this week. Hopefully the dividend increase doesn't happen this week lol.

How about you guys? Where does it rank among your potential and present investments?


----------



## Eder

I usually wait for Larry81 to go all in then I'll buy a bit.


----------



## londoncalling

Gandalf_the_Grey said:


> I don't want to sound like a cheerleader for SU, or for any other stock for that matter. My job as an investor is to look objectively and soberly at the facts. All the facts seem to tell me that this is one of my best investment options right now. The Nuttuall endorsement really cemented it for me. I plan to buy alot more this week. Hopefully the dividend increase doesn't happen this week lol.
> 
> How about you guys? Where does it rank among your potential and present investments?


I took Nuttall's recommendations when I first started. That didn't work too well for me. Since then I stopped listening to many of the talking heads on BNN. SU might do well in this space but I wouldn't have a TV recommendation (or Forum board for that matter) cement the decision. Perhaps fundamentals, technicals or a coin flip.


----------



## investor65

londoncalling said:


> I took Nuttall's recommendations when I first started. That didn't work too well for me. Since then I stopped listening to many of the talking heads on BNN. SU might do well in this space but I wouldn't have a TV recommendation (or Forum board for that matter) cement the decision. Perhaps fundamentals, technicals or a coin flip.


Yep. I know where you're coming from. I too have gotten burned from TV recs. I'll even go so far as to say they should be banned. I'm sure thousands of inexperienced retail investors have gotten burned too.
This isn't just Eric Nuttall saying SU's his top pick. He bought 1 million shares. And he bought it just 2 trading days ago. Usually big investors don't tell what they've bought so soon.

I have to add another bullish catalyst for SU - the TMX pipeline. SU would be the biggest beneficiary.


----------



## doctrine

For sure Nuttall is a perma bull. But this story also started a long time ago in 2014 when the price fell off and long term oil investment died. O&G is my #1 investment idea. I am still buying shares. It is not only ridiculously cheap on an absolute level, but also relative to the rest of the crazy market with unicorn money-losing companies everywhere, at a time when energy prices could easily soar to record highs.

I have been thinking of some criteria for when I would consider O&G a poor investment:

If capital expenditures began to rise to 2019 levels, for example (currently at least 30% below on average).
If the oil rig count rose above 2019 levels (currently 30% below pre-COVID).
If the total fleet of gas/diesel vehicles began to fall in absolute numbers due to electric vehicle adoption.
If nuclear power investment began to surge in developed countries

Most of these danger signals in themselves would take 5 years to reverse course even if they started, which they haven't. So this trend is not in danger of correcting anytime soon. The most likely cause of an oil price crash is a economic crash predicated by unsustainably high oil prices. In a severe depression, governments could even start nationalizing oil and gas. But we are a long way away from this - politicians are all consumed with greening the economy and the majority of the population supports it based on decades of cheap oil and gas. I'll deal with these more extreme situations when oil prices hit record highs ($150/barrel).

Hold onto your hats. This story hasn't even started yet.


----------



## investor65

I believe Eric Nuttall is worth listening to. Not very many fund managers beat their respective indices. However, he's beating XEG by a huge margin.
This guy knows what he's talking about.


XEG 
1 year 108.6% 3 year -7.59%
Ninepoint Energy 
1 year 259.6% 3 year +9.05
(figures are from Morningstar. Nuttall joined Ninepoint in 2017)


----------



## investor65

doctrine said:


> I have been thinking of some criteria for when I would consider O&G a poor investment:
> 
> If capital expenditures began to rise to 2019 levels, for example (currently at least 30% below on average).
> If the oil rig count rose above 2019 levels (currently 30% below pre-COVID).
> If the total fleet of gas/diesel vehicles began to fall in absolute numbers due to electric vehicle adoption.
> If nuclear power investment began to surge in developed countries
> Hold onto your hats. This story hasn't even started yet.


Great analysis Doctrine.
I'm gonna consider a couple options to cover all bases.
1) Global X Lithium and Battery ETF (LIT) to cover point 3.
2) Cameco to cover point 4.


----------



## AltaRed

For now. Eric wasn't so great when with Sprott if I recall correctly. He eventually now has to be right, at least for awhile. That said, I'll qualify my comments by saying I don't think much of any of the talking heads on BNN Market Call. The dartboard is just as effective.

P.S. I had a 25+ year career in the O&G industry and tend to be a perma bear given the shareholder destruction I've seen over those 25+ years. It may colour my attitude. Money can be made but only as a trade.


----------



## investor65

AltaRed said:


> For now. Eric wasn't so great when with Sprott if I recall correctly. He eventually now has to be right, at least for awhile. That said, I'll qualify my comments by saying I don't think much of any of the talking heads on BNN Market Call. The dartboard is just as effective.
> 
> P.S. I had a 25+ year career in the O&G industry and tend to be a perma bear given the shareholder destruction I've seen over those 25+ years. It may colour my attitude. Money can be made but only as a trade.


Good points. Energy stocks are certainly volatile, and the long term returns have been horrendous. But it seems that we are in an energy bull market caused by a shortage of investment right now. Energy has to come from somewhere. I firmly believe renewables are still at least 10 years away from contributing in a significant way to our energy needs, despite the media hype. Another fact: Renewables are not reliable. We have seen this in Texas, but especially in UK and Europe. When future energy crises happen, they will be great times for those who were in energy. No, I hope such things don't happen, but they are inevitable. If countries are foolish enough to depend so much on such an unreliable energy source, I will be invested in O&G.

Another reason I'm bullish O&G? It seems the European energy crisis right now has been deliberately caused by a reduction in nat gas supply from Europe's neighbour to the east. They saw the wind shortage this year and exploited it to the hilt. The Nordstream pipeline will give them even more control. This is going to make nat gas, LNG, and oil (since they are now so correlated vs the past) very valuable commodities going forward.

As for Nuttall, I'm just saying that he is definitely someone worth listening to on energy. There is a huge improvement in his performance since his early Sprott days. All of us on this board are better investors than we were 10 years ago, including Eric Nuttall. We are seeing massive and consistent outperformance vs XEG the last 3 years. I'm pretty certain neither you or I can come anywhere close to his performance by throwing darts at a board.


----------



## OneSeat

OPEC: Oil will be world's No. 1 energy source for decades 
David Mchugh, The Associated Press - Canadian Press - 4 minutes ago 

Oil will satisfy 28.1% of the world's energy demand by 2045, down from 30% in 2020 — but ahead of natural gas with 24.4% and coal with 17.4%. Hydroelectric, nuclear and biomass energy sources and other renewables such as wind and solar make up the rest.

A key reason cited for declining energy use in the more-developed world was demography: shrinking and aging populations that usher in lower economic growth.


----------



## larry81

I am now at a *1,402,179 $* profit on my XEG position.

Anyone can ring a bell when we reach the peak ? I have the feeling there is much more upside left...


----------



## Eder

Somehow I thought we'd see a post from you when WTI broke $80 lol.


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> I am now at a *1,402,179 $* profit on my XEG position.
> 
> Anyone can ring a bell when we reach the peak ? I have the feeling there is much more upside left...


Truly incredible.
Congratulations.

Do you mind if I ask what your return is, or how much your initial capital investment was in XEG in order to return that 1.4M profit?


----------



## larry81

Initial position is 235,000 shares at 4.35ish, value of ~1M.

Rest of the profits are distributions.

It felt really insane at the time but it really was a "_buy when there's blood in the streets_" moment.
I remember pundits saying it was the end of oil while in fact it was a "generational opportunity" in commodities !


----------



## scorpion_ca

larry81 said:


> I am now at a *1,402,179 $* profit on my XEG position.
> 
> Anyone can ring a bell when we reach the peak ? I have the feeling there is much more upside left...


If I am not mistaken, you have SU too. What is the profit amount on SU?


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Initial position is 235,000 shares at 4.35ish, value of ~1M.


Thank you for sharing.


----------



## larry81

scorpion_ca said:


> If I am not mistaken, you have SU too. What is the profit amount on SU?


I sold my SU position in june of last year, it held it about 5 months and sold when i saw that Suncor was not recovering like the others majors,

I made about 40k profit on a 650k position, the bet underperformed the SP 500 !


----------



## doctrine

The last time oil was this high, Suncor was at $40 a share. XEG was above $20.

Of course, Suncor's production is 80%+ higher than 2014, and their capital expenditures are 40% lower. $40 is a no-brainer.


----------



## newfoundlander61

I am down on my Suncor holdings but am keeping the shares for now and to collect the dividend and wait for more appreciation in the stock price.


----------



## larry81

wow XEG @ 10.22


----------



## newfoundlander61

SU has been moving up but pretty slowly.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> wow XEG @ 10.22


Here's trailing 1 year return of a few things, for comparison

XIC +30%
SU +89%
XEG +139%

Wow. And even the TSX (XIC) is very strong, actually a bigger 1 year return than the S&P 500 when converted to CAD


----------



## larry81




----------



## nobleea

Now we're getting some momentum. Doubling dividend to match 2019 levels. More debt buyback, more share buybacks.


----------



## doctrine

Well, here we go. Money doesn't lie. New 52 week high. Should be closer to $50 though than $30.


----------



## peterk

Paging Mr. Larry


----------



## larry81

Finally, Suncor is alive !

Next weeek should also see real action as CNQ and Cenovus reports earnings !

Could reach XEG 12-13 by year end?


----------



## doctrine

New 52 week high, a day after setting a new 52 week high. Very nice. Refining margins are at close to decade highs. On our way to $40. I don't know if it happens by year end, but next year's traditional energy season (Dec-May) is going to be blockbuster. Gasoline prices are at record levels in October - this alone is such a huge sign that the energy shortage crisis is coming very, very soon.

The thesis that oil assets would be stranded and worthless is becoming, ironically, worthless. They may actually become more and more valuable as companies invest less and less. And Biden continues to beg OPEC to pump more. Only small whining because of COP26; just wait until that dog and pony show is over.


----------



## Eder

With Marathon reversing the flow of the Capline more oil from Alberta can make it to the Gulf. Good news for our producers & our province.


----------



## AltaRed

More options to Gulf refineries, particularly in times of bottlenecks south of Steele City.. Not more oil which is limited by takeaway capacity out of Canada.


----------



## Eder

Yes but Line 3 will add that capacity and will be able to feed the Capline the way I read it.


----------



## AltaRed

Eder said:


> Yes but Line 3 will add that capacity and will be able to feed the Capline the way I read it.


Fair enough. I answered in the context that Line 3 capacity additions are already a past event (as of early Oct) and running flat out.


----------



## james4beach

Congrats @larry81 and everyone else who was brave enough to go long energy! The thought crossed my mind, but it just kept going lower and lower and lower.

How many years was XEG extremely disappointing? Even today the 15 year return is -2% annualized, negative! I guess it's one of those sectors you have to actively trade, but not suitable for buy & hold.

I'm getting enough energy exposure through the TSX index. Take a look at XIU, energy is now the second largest sector at 14% and climbing. So I am perfectly happy getting my energy equities through the index. This has already been an incredible year for the Canadian index, and if things continue like this, we could be a global outperformer for years.


----------



## larry81

Thanks @james4beach, i am truly blessed (and lucky). Even if i am up 150%, I still think there is much more gains to be made in the energy sector...

BoA just annonced their 120$/bbl prediction by summer 2022...








Bank Of America Sees $120 Oil By June 2022 | OilPrice.com


According to Bank of America, oil prices will hit $120 by June next year due to the current global energy crisis




oilprice.com





I am already having nightmares about the capgain tax bill !


----------



## hboy54

james4beach said:


> Congrats @larry81 and everyone else who was brave enough to go long energy! The thought crossed my mind, but it just kept going lower and lower and lower.


Investors seem to want to optimize a curious variable, the transaction win loss ratio. Learn to let that one go and optimize CAGR. My ACB in most of my energy (ie everything but Suncor) is hundreds of percent higher than last years lows, so I have many losing transactions, perhaps even majority still. But 20 year CAGR and dollars gained is quite sweet.


----------



## larry81

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-canadian-natural-q3-profit-1.6236748


----------



## doctrine

New 52 week high for Suncor and the XEG Energy Index. Onwards and upwards. Consuming countries are panicking in November at the seasonal low of demand with the largest ever release of strategic reserves. What is it going to look like in April-May when seasonal demand peaks? Yikes.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> New 52 week high for Suncor and the XEG Energy Index. Onwards and upwards. Consuming countries are panicking in November at the seasonal low of demand with the largest ever release of strategic reserves. What is it going to look like in April-May when seasonal demand peaks? Yikes.


Amazing! Now the question is whether this can get back to its previous levels from a few years ago.


----------



## larry81

weeeeeeeeeeeeee the party is still going strongggg. Will XEG reach another ATH before year end ?


----------



## doctrine

larry81 said:


> weeeeeeeeeeeeee the party is still going strongggg. Will XEG reach another ATH before year end ?


Took until the 1st week of January. XEG at 52 week high yesterday and today. CNQ and SU both hit new 52 week highs today too. Supply is looking weak, OPEC is showing signs of production constraints already - you didn't think it was just western oil companies suffering from a lack of capital, did you? And there has been no magic growth in capital investment in response to higher prices; no investor wants it, and neither do governments, so you get what you ask for. Riots like you see in Kazakhstan are going to become common over energy prices, unfortunately. If you doubled capital investment today, it would still take years to fix the problem. And we haven't even started fixing it yet.


----------



## AltaRed

While I agree a number of OPEC countries are already faltering in their ability to fill their shares of the monthly 400kpd production increases, others have more ability to do so such as SA, Russia, Iraq, Libya et al. Never mind that US production is increasing again (almost 1 million barrels per day over the past year) and Exxon is making great strides to get to 1 million barrels per day or more in Guyana (albeit a 5 year program to get there). I see US production adding potentially another 500-1000 kpd of production by the end of 2022 if prices remain in the $60-80 range. Supply is not as constrained as you make it out to be but I agree there will be limitations depending on how demand increases play out.

With some short term aberrations, I see the supply/demand balance remaining reasonably close, close enough to likely keep prices in the $60-80 range over the course of 2022 and beyond. We will see some continued growth in XEG prices and for select O&G companies, but I don't see XEG ever returning to its ~$20 peak back in 2014. XEG in the $15 range may be the best it can do over the next few years.


----------



## doctrine

Your assessment is pretty good I think, although I see it as more of a best case scenario. Especially with most inventories below average, there are plenty of risk to supply disruption. It is just so unusual for oil and energy stocks to be this high in January. The market is sending a message that supplies are tight - oil remains in pretty strong backwardation, inventories continue to deplete. But meanwhile, happy to harvest 20%+ free cash flow yields while what I view as inevitable plays out. If the world does pull out of COVID with Omicron this year, then really watch out.

CNQ at an all time high today. What a stock. Still can hardly believe I got shares at $11. Suncor looking really good too, lots of upside potential if they get Fort Hills running to capacity, and once they integrate Syncrude. I still see $50 this year. It would bring XEG to $15 or more.


----------



## zinfit

AltaRed said:


> While I agree a number of OPEC countries are already faltering in their ability to fill their shares of the monthly 400kpd production increases, others have more ability to do so such as SA, Russia, Iraq, Libya et al. Never mind that US production is increasing again (almost 1 million barrels per day over the past year) and Exxon is making great strides to get to 1 million barrels per day or more in Guyana (albeit a 5 year program to get there). I see US production adding potentially another 500-1000 kpd of production by the end of 2022 if prices remain in the $60-80 range. Supply is not as constrained as you make it out to be but I agree there will be limitations depending on how demand increases play out.
> 
> With some short term aberrations, I see the supply/demand balance remaining reasonably close, close enough to likely keep prices in the $60-80 range over the course of 2022 and beyond. We will see some continued growth in XEG prices and for select O&G companies, but I don't see XEG ever returning to its ~$20 peak back in 2014. XEG in the $15 range may be the best it can do over the next few years.


Agree. Once we are past Omnicron I see a big surge in demand especially in the travel industry. People want to break the covid chain and get back to travelling and reconnecting.


----------



## MrBlackhill

doctrine said:


> Still can hardly believe I got shares at $11.


Nice job. 20% yield on cost and 5X gains.

And I still can't believe that I sold the NVA.TO shares that I bought at $0.80 because I got impatient as it was not moving. Now trading at $7, ouch.


----------



## zinfit

MrBlackhill said:


> Nice job. 20% yield on cost and 5X gains.
> 
> And I still can't believe that I sold the NVA.TO shares that I bought at $0.80 because I got impatient as it was not moving. Now trading at $7, ouch.


I just see a lot of great opportunities in this sector. I have a number of USA plays as well. I have SU, Enerplus, Baytex, Cenovus, Diamondback, Arch , Whitecap and Conoco-Phillips . If we run into a inflationary cycle this sector will do very well. I believe for an intregrated I think Cenovus has the best upside . SU on a metric basis is selling at a higher price .


----------



## Money172375

i bought suncor when COVID first hit. Avg cost is $27. It represents about 4% of my portfolio. I plan to exit all oil/nat gas etc within a few years. I don’t follow the sector and I’m still a little confused as to which specific sub-sector/firms may get hit hardest when electrification takes off. Su? Enb? Emera? TRP?

anyway, the sun or trade was just that….a trade. Wondering where folks think this may go. 

what do I need to look at to determine an exit point. All my other holdings will be held 25+ years.


----------



## doctrine

I believe oil is heading to all time highs, although probably not this year, but $100 is certainly possible. Oil stocks are priced like oil is heading for $60. I have plenty of oil stock positions and no real intention to sell anytime soon. Call me when capital investment hits 2019 levels - we're about $150 billion a year away. 

There is a lot of catchup buying in this sector. #1 in 2021 and already #1 so far (early) in 2022. Quantitative and momentum buying will be real. As will most institutions who jettisoned these stocks. And with companies buying back stock, there is less supply available - this isn't EV or crypto where billions are being raised and plenty of paper supply abounds. There is less stock and less debt to buy in a sector that is outperforming.


----------



## zinfit

Just about any o and gas stock has had an outstanding run. I bought some Suncor to fill out a basket of 8 energy stocks. I have three US oil stocks. If oil is going up as some suggestion having a strong position in a stock with deep position in the Perminian basis is a no brainer.


----------



## james4beach

I still don't feel great about picking & choosing oil and gas stocks, but I do have a sizeable position in the TSX 60 and that's how I get my energy stocks.

In hindsight I do wish I had bought something like ATH, which had been on my radar early in the pandemic, but that's the nature of hindsight for you. But I am very glad that I have stuck with my Canadian index position over all these years.

If oil & gas continues to be strong, as Canadians we benefit in many ways. This will keep the CAD strong, protect us a bit from inflationary pressures, plus of course the general economic benefit and prosperity in Canada. Including prosperity to us dumb old index holders!


----------



## newfoundlander61

I originally purchased my full position of SU in Feb 2019 @$44.07. I held it through the market downturn and still hold it. Overall compared to where it was at one point it has come back nicely and to date I have received $2,732.10 in dividends and I plan on holding it for now. Who knows it may at some point go back to what I paid for it or even slighty higher. Other than QSR these are the only two of my 14 holdings that are down.


----------



## hboy54

A few months back one of my energy became my first 7 figure holding. Another one just became my first 7 figure accrued capital gain. There is every chance this year that a daily portfolio gain will be larger than my portfolio value circa March 2020. I violated all the rules of diversified investing, but sometimes an opportunity is so obvious you just have to go for it.


----------



## londoncalling

Well done @hboy. IMO you are the king of deep value. I have read and watched other threads where you have done similar especially in the commodities sector. Your conviction and patience is remarkable. Back to energy stocks. I was eyeballing oil and gas late 2018 early 2019, even though I pledged an oath to only play this sector through the likes of pipelines having learned by riding the likes of eagle energy, longview, renegade, surge energy and crescent point a decade ago. In the spring of 2020 I was looking at SU, CVX, XOM, CVE and CNQ as they may offer a little more protection than the juniors. At that time I was leaning heavily towards CVX to increase US allocation and a possible transition to converting their fuel stations to recharge stations. When the pandemic hit in 2020 I turned my attention to other opportunities and increased my positions in financials. I feel that CVX has lagged the rest of the oil and gas stocks but haven't looked closely at it in about a year. There is definitely bullishness on oil and commodities in general. I was late to the party last time but came out relatively unscathed (aside from CPG and SGY). It's rarely a good idea to stay late at the party.  O&G may be a major player in 2022 as more money and attention come to the sector. Will the current pullback be limited to tech or will we see a market wide correction?


----------



## MrBlackhill

hboy54 said:


> A few months back one of my energy became my first 7 figure holding. Another one just became my first 7 figure accrued capital gain. There is every chance this year that a daily portfolio gain will be larger than my portfolio value circa March 2020. I violated all the rules of diversified investing, but sometimes an opportunity is so obvious you just have to go for it.


Good job!

I've myself lost an opportunity to 10X my money in less than 2 years. I bought a stock and then changed my mind rapidly after. That stock then started a 10X run a few months later.

Anyways, at least I've had a few 2X, 3X, 4X and 5X.


----------



## Eder

Grats on the milestones. I also think diversification is over rated and comes at a high cost. I don't hold any oil companies.


----------



## larry81

Interesting times... My XEG holding is up almost 15% YTD.

Unrealized Cap Gain is nearing 2M ... on a 1M initial position.


----------



## peterk

I just come to this thread whenever I get nervous that I have too much oil. Then Larry makes me feel better.

I wish I had a crystal ball to know if AltaRed is being perpetually pessimistic or realistic!  Agree that USA production surprises could be a big wildcard. Hard to know what to believe... I've heard everything from US production being the clearly most robust and capable of growth, or the opposite that they are running on fumes and it is a financing house of cards to keep existing wells producing just a little bit longer before they go bust (and not to be replaced with new drilling in significant numbers).


----------



## KaeJS

peterk said:


> I just come to this thread whenever I get nervous that I have too much oil. Then Larry makes me feel better.


I come to this thread when I want to feel small.
But I am super happy for (and jealous) of the huge returns for some of the members here.

I do own quite a bit of oil, but not to the tune of some people on here. I think oil is here to stay. Not too concerned about green energy and all that. There simply is too much demand. Too many things require oil. I think the death of oil is something far, far into the future.

And as someone mentioned upthread... There have been talks of green energy before... Oil running out... Climate change... Etc.

The more things change, the more things stay the same.

With all that said - I added to my SU position today. There is no reason it shouldn't hit $40 at some point in the future. Probably in the next 6 months, I imagine.


----------



## larry81

Anyone have a short explaination regarding why SU didnt recover like the others majors ? What an underdog !


----------



## doctrine

larry81 said:


> Anyone have a short explaination regarding why SU didnt recover like the others majors ? What an underdog !


1. SU had operational issues with Fort Hills - it should have been up and running years ago. These are being overcome and it will help the stock.
2. Some of SU's oil sands assets are running relatively shorter on lifespan, like apparently some parts of Syncrude. No expert but general consensus is they may be more exposed to capital expenditures and/or acquisitions and/or regulatory risk for mine expansions.
3. CNQ has no similar issues, giving institutions a solid alternative to have exposure to the space and they are taking it.
4. SU cut their dividend and still have not restored it to 2019 levels despite a recent doubling (current 42 cents, was 46.5 cents pre-COVID). CNQ's dividend is up 38% from pre-COVID levels and was never cut with a ~20 year unbroken history of dividend increases.

I still see $50 for SU as a fair price today. And more like $60+ if oil hits $100 US. CNQ has stolen a lot of SU's investors. They are really hitting it out of the park. New ATHs almost every day this week, and well deserved. $700M to expand oil production by 60,000 boe/d - that is at a 65-70% discount to where the public mid/small caps are trading today.


----------



## Covariance

deleted


----------



## larry81

2M Unrealized Cap Gain as of today 

This deserve a screenshot:









SU reporting today, how far will it go ?


----------



## AltaRed

peterk said:


> I just come to this thread whenever I get nervous that I have too much oil. Then Larry makes me feel better.
> 
> I wish I had a crystal ball to know if AltaRed is being perpetually pessimistic or realistic!  Agree that USA production surprises could be a big wildcard. Hard to know what to believe... I've heard everything from US production being the clearly most robust and capable of growth, or the opposite that they are running on fumes and it is a financing house of cards to keep existing wells producing just a little bit longer before they go bust (and not to be replaced with new drilling in significant numbers).


Commodities are exaggerations and extremes in both directions. I spent 25+ years in the business to know that when we think we know the answers, we are severely humbled in short order. The wild card this year (and into the next 2 years) is mostly around what demand does. Supply is considerably more well known on what it will do than demand, the wild cards of Libya and Iran notwithstanding. Even Iraq to some degree but less so. There should be enough supply growth in various basins to meet increasing demand simply because the industry cannot help itself. We see that in MD&A on 4Q21 results being released currently from various companies. That will put a lid on prices but where is the question.


----------



## larry81

XEG on fire


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> XEG on fire


Yeah, it's nuts! Here are annualized returns for XEG

*1 year: 110%*
3 year: 14%
5 year: 2%
10 year: -1%
15 year: -1%

Huge difference between the short term and long term returns!


----------



## m3s

SU did a 2x in a few months. Just another 2x back to 2008 prices


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> Yeah, it's nuts! Here are annualized returns for XEG
> 
> *1 year: 110%*
> 3 year: 14%
> 5 year: 2%
> 10 year: -1%
> 15 year: -1%
> 
> Huge difference between the short term and long term returns!


If oil goes back to all time highs of 15 years ago, which many analysts believe is fundamentally inevitable, those 15 year returns are going to look a lot better. Gasoline prices are already at record highs in many places, including Canada, and petroleum demand isn't even blinking.


----------



## investor65

larry81 said:


> 2M Unrealized Cap Gain as of today
> 
> This deserve a screenshot:
> View attachment 22758
> 
> 
> SU reporting today, how far will it go ?


Incredible. I've always been skeptical of your millions of dollars in XEG profits Larry but I am convinced now. I believe your screenshot is from a TD account, correct? If we didn't have our accounts with TD, I still would have been skeptical. This is the internet after all lol.
You sir are a CMF legend.

Where do you see the oil price/energy stocks headed and could you share your reasons?
Personally, I agree with Eric Nuttall and I am of the opinion that ESG mandates are causing a shortage in petroleum and therefore a multi year bull market.


----------



## investor65

I personally like CNQ over XEG. 
I like it over its peers as well: SU CVE IMO.
Bigger dividend, better management, better performance.
I'm surprised there isn't more interest in CNQ here.


----------



## zinfit

investor65 said:


> I personally like CNQ over XEG.
> I like it over its peers as well: SU CVE IMO.
> Bigger dividend, better management, better performance.
> I'm surprised there isn't more interest in CNQ here.


CNQ is a much more of a upstream oil business and it has strong position in other non-oilsand production.. Suncor has a much bigger footprint with downstream operations. Same with CVE. CNQ I believe has done better in stock performance. I figure the real laggard in the three is CVE and if there is a catch up phase CVE will do very well.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> 2M Unrealized Cap Gain as of today


What do you think, time to cash out $1 million? Don't worry about the taxes. You'd still have a $2 million position remaining, and will still make plenty if it doubles again.



larry81 said:


> This is a large amount for everyone including me but i am fortunate enough that, while significant, its not a major holding in my overall portfolio. I used the rationale that XEG "is part of my canadian equities allocation".


Is this still the case? Is a $3 million position still not a major holding for you? Maybe you're dealing with a $30 or $60 million total portfolio, I have no idea.

If this is more than 10% of your portfolio, I think it would be prudent to lighten it up. The money could go into something more diversified such as XIC (Canadian market) which by the way would still preserve some of those energy holdings, as there's quite a bit of energy in XIC.

Also consider the high fees you are paying to hold this position. The MER on XEG is 0.61% so you are paying Blackrock $18,000 a year in fees.

No matter how great this position looks, $18K in annual fees is a lot!

If you switched this into XIC, then fees drop to 0.06% or only $1,800 a year. *This is a 90% reduction in fees.*


----------



## nobleea

James, I don't get your laser focus on fees. It should be on total return.


----------



## wayward__son

I think it's just because fees are a known variable. Future returns are a speculation. All else equal cheaper fees = guaranteed better return. That being said, if you are saying 18k isn't really that much to have heartburn over on a $3m position I kind of agree with you.

Btw good Odd Lots podcast on oil prices the other day: This Is What Needs to Happen for Oil Prices to Finally Come Down


----------



## james4beach

nobleea said:


> James, I don't get your laser focus on fees. It should be on total return.


And a diversified portfolio has a higher probability of giving a good total return under the widest range of circumstances. A concentrated position of XEG is really just a speculation.

So in this situation, shifting to XIC both slashes fees 90% and gives a higher probability of success. Even higher probability of success in XBAL.


----------



## doctrine

For me, I continue to hold a "big overweight" in energy (this may be an understatement), for a whole host of reasons, but fundamentally I believe it will outperform the XIC index by a significant margin, even if XIC itself will benefit.

I firmly believe the "efficient" market thesis is not represented here due to a mass exodus of investors who shun the industry for reasons not relating to fundamentals and despite oil's overwhelming impact on our day to day lives, as well as high return on equity and huge barriers to entry. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see how - every time I look, it looks more compelling and less risky. Yes, this means I believe everyone not in this space is making a mistake, which has slowly been changing as analysts come onboard with $100-125 price predictions for oil.

Maybe the upside isn't as much as when oil was negative $40 a barrel (~500%+) but it's still there (100-200%). The time to buy/hold is now, not when oil is at all time highs.

For Suncor, $50 is a short term target but I would not be surprised to see $60.


----------



## peterk

Alberta Sweet/light oil will pushing $125 CAD/bbl now, with this latest spike in WTI prices plus USD strong in the high-oil-price period.

Very unusual to have such a weak CAD/USD with such high oil prices. I expect Canadian gas prices to go way up again. The Canadian producers will be raking it in.


----------



## fstamand

I was expecting a better bounce from SU this morning... My USO is up 4.5% and suncor is down in the red.


----------



## james4beach

Despite oil futures moving up, oil stocks (XEG and XLE) were weak today. Could that be a sign that the equities are already "fully valued"?


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> Despite oil futures moving up, oil stocks (XEG and XLE) were weak today. Could that be a sign that the equities are already "fully valued"?


Let me reframe this. Have you looked at oil company valuations? The average XEG company has a 25-40% free cash flow yield at current oil prices. Meaning if every company acted together, XEG could be paying a 30% dividend every year, and still maintain production and even likely have cash leftover. Now, more typical is they are paying a 4-5% dividend and buying back 5-10% of shares, the rest is paying down debt. But they are running out of debt to pay off. So even bigger paydays are coming for equity holders. So it doesn't really matter if oil company prices stay here, I'm going to be collecting a lot more cash in my pocket. With a slighly pullback and higher oil prices, they can simply buy back more shares every day. Find another sector where virtually every company has a minimum 25%+ free cash flow yield and low debt.


----------



## james4beach

So you know all that, but the rest of the market doesn't? I don't understand why you guys think that investment banks and hedge funds can't do the same analysis you're doing.

Don't you think prices would already reflect all this? Or are a handful of guys on a random internet forum the only ones that figured it out. Better buy XEG before the rest of the world figures it out!

@doctrine for any of the things you mentioned to be bullish, would require that the rest of the market does not see this yet, or isn't as smart as you.

My guess is that all of this is priced in, as are other risks that perhaps don't occur to you. Put it all together and I'm sure XEG is fairly valued based on all the information known today including the thesis you outlined, as are most liquid securities on earth. So what you are really buying is a speculative gamble about other exogenous forces or other unpredictable chaotic forces that cannot be accurately predicted.


----------



## peterk

^ Well yes everything is always "priced in". When fundamentals seem to show that a company is a "good deal" there must be other, not so-obvious risks or concerns baked into the price. Energy isn't special. All stocks are like this.

I think it's clear that the main risk being baked in that makes oil stocks look like a good deal, is the anticipated rollover of oil demand due to forcefully stated policy desires by world governments, suggesting that EV transport vehicles will soon become prolific and mandatory (new risks); and secondly, the flourishing or not of global economic activity and demand for energy and commodities (the usual risk).

The collection of opinions about those risks makes the market price. Us oil bulls are either (I would think) predicting that EV uptake will be less rapid and less prolific than predicted, and/or that global economic growth will be more than predicted.

Maybe it's naive to think we know anything? Again that's not special compared to any other stock picking, which might be why stock picking is a bad idea, but here we all are.


----------



## londoncalling

In the short term markets are very irrational based on the reasons above (too much info, too quickly, interpreted by too many people). Longer term fundamentals will determine a companies value but in the interim the market is in a proverbial tug of war. One has to remember that although analysts and hedge funds have better and quicker access to information, they also have different, constraints, agendas and time lines.

As a long time member of the community @james4beach you know there are plenty of members that have outperformed fund managers. My own performance has matched the markets over the long run (sometimes slighty outperforming sometimes slightly underperforming) but I do not achieve as good as results as some here. I have followed some of @doctrine 's observations(and many others) to do my own analysis over the years. He has a good track record going back a number of years. A few examples that come to mind are Automodular (TSE: AM) | Canadian Money Forum, TransForce Inc (TFI) | Canadian Money Forum, and Western Forest Products (WEF) | Page 4 | Canadian Money Forum There are many others here(yourself included) that have great insight into certain sectors, markets and analysis.


----------



## james4beach

Thanks for the thoughts @peterk @doctrine @londoncalling

I'm on the fence about all this sector or stock-picking stuff. On one hand, when I look at my own results, I can say that over the very long term, I have only done about as well as an index benchmark, probably worse after "being smart". And it's not just me. I've looked at results from my friends and even some coworkers.

On the other hand, there is evidence that things like momentum exist in markets, that once a sector (or country) picks up steam, it tends to do well for a while, something @MrBlackhill and I probably agree on based on various technical studies we've done.

So I don't just want to throw my hands up and say, there is no point to sector allocations. After all, I do have an XIT position and have been riding strength in tech. Riding the hottest sector is actually written into my investment plan and asset allocation... it's part of my official investment plan.

It's also possible that energy fundamentals are so good, that energy could be in a raging bull market for the next ~ 10 years or something. I agree it's completely possible! In my case, I am using "technical" criteria to guide my switchover from XIT to XEG, if it comes to that. So far the criteria has not been met, but it really could happen.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> So you know all that, but the rest of the market doesn't? I don't understand why you guys think that investment banks and hedge funds can't do the same analysis you're doing.
> 
> Don't you think prices would already reflect all this? Or are a handful of guys on a random internet forum the only ones that figured it out. Better buy XEG before the rest of the world figures it out!


The biggest factor is the choice that institutions have made to abandon investment in the fossil fuel sector. There is practically zero ownership of oil stocks by almost any institution, and there is still active divestment. Surveys of 1000's of mutual funds have found only 1-2% holding oil companies. In a green world, managers won't be caught dead with an oil stock, no matter what. Low demand means low stock prices. This is in stark contrast to the business fundamentals. Typical signs of an overheated commodity market are nowhere to be seen. No overpaying for acquisitions, no massive capital investments, zero initial public offerings. And no debt issues. 

This isn't a secret. The information is available. But funds won't touch it, with rare exceptions. Low stock prices means oil companies are gobbling up their stock with buybacks at cheap prices. If institutions come back, there won't be much debt to buy, and far less shares than there were in the past.


----------



## larry81

james4beach said:


> And a diversified portfolio has a higher probability of giving a good total return under the widest range of circumstances. A concentrated position of XEG is really just a speculation.
> 
> So in this situation, shifting to XIC both slashes fees 90% and gives a higher probability of success. Even higher probability of success in XBAL.


You are 100% right that this is pure speculation !

Regarding the fee's, I use VCN in my portfolio for historic reason and i am fully aware of XEG outrageous 0.61% MER.

However, YTD :
VCN -1.26%
VUN -8.50%
XEG 22.89%

2022 is pretty bad so far but thanks to XEG my portfolio is down only 1.68% instead of 8-9% like most people with a 100% equities portfolio !

We almost touched 100$/bbl today and with the situation in Unkraine unfolding i believe there is more upside left in oil ! I really plan to continue to hold for (at least) a couple more months !


----------



## wayward__son

doctrine said:


> The biggest factor is the choice that institutions have made to abandon investment in the fossil fuel sector. There is practically zero ownership of oil stocks by almost any institution, and there is still active divestment. Surveys of 1000's of mutual funds have found only 1-2% holding oil companies. In a green world, managers won't be caught dead with an oil stock, no matter what. Low demand means low stock prices. This is in stark contrast to the business fundamentals. Typical signs of an overheated commodity market are nowhere to be seen. No overpaying for acquisitions, no massive capital investments, zero initial public offerings. And no debt issues.
> 
> This isn't a secret. The information is available. But funds won't touch it, with rare exceptions. Low stock prices means oil companies are gobbling up their stock with buybacks at cheap prices. If institutions come back, there won't be much debt to buy, and far less shares than there were in the past.


I completely agree with this as a general point. Large pools of investment capital are constrained in ways that individual retail investors are not. ESG mandates are one of those of those constraints.


----------



## james4beach

I'm not sure why you guys are saying that institutional investors have abandoned oil & gas, it's just not true.

You can look at the top institutional and mutual fund holders of Suncor. There are tons of institutions holding these. Same with CNQ, these institutions hold 74% of the float... that's massive institutional holdings.

Pretty clear that institutions have not abandoned oil & gas.


----------



## AltaRed

doctrine said:


> Let me reframe this. Have you looked at oil company valuations? The average XEG company has a 25-40% free cash flow yield at current oil prices. Meaning if every company acted together, XEG could be paying a 30% dividend every year, and still maintain production and even likely have cash leftover. Now, more typical is they are paying a 4-5% dividend and buying back 5-10% of shares, the rest is paying down debt. But they are running out of debt to pay off. So even bigger paydays are coming for equity holders. So it doesn't really matter if oil company prices stay here, I'm going to be collecting a lot more cash in my pocket. With a slighly pullback and higher oil prices, they can simply buy back more shares every day. Find another sector where virtually every company has a minimum 25%+ free cash flow yield and low debt.


You wouldn't be Eric Nuttall in disguise, would you? BTW, it is about time O&G companies and their shareholders had a break. It has been brutal since the crash in 2015. They are still a trade though. Know when to get off that train.


----------



## AltaRed

You are both right. A number of institutional investors are abandoning O&G stocks over time in order to be politically correct, and to qualify for better SRI and ESG ratings. Endowment funds, pension funds, etc. although Blackrock very recently came out in strong support of the O&G industry after Texas threatened to neuter them What has changed is 'less' interest in the O&G sector which has driven multiples down to 'mature' status, and that is primarily what the sector has become, or is becoming in the not so distant future. The only question is when and how quickly will demand roll over.with government policy and advancing technologies driving electrification (and higher fossil fuel efficiencies). That uncertainty will continue to be a headwind on the O&G sector as will the return of Iraq and Iran crude "sometime"..

The cash flow yields are indeed spectacular and I have no doubt there is considerable money yet to be made in the near term. However, I don't expect the sector to ever again return to its prior nosebleed peaks. Enjoy the ride and may it last another 2-5 years.

P.S. Share buybacks will provide the biggest bang for the buck in the longer run. Reduce market float to a level that only those investors who want to own O&G stocks actually are the ones providing price support.


----------



## james4beach

AltaRed said:


> to qualify for better SRI and ESG ratings


I think the ESG stuff is just a fad and a marketing ploy. There are already warnings from regulators about mischief in "ESG" labelling... I don't think it's going to last. Just a way to trick gullible (but well meaning) investors.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> So you know all that, but the rest of the market doesn't? I don't understand why you guys think that investment banks and hedge funds can't do the same analysis you're doing.
> 
> Don't you think prices would already reflect all this? Or are a handful of guys on a random internet forum the only ones that figured it out. Better buy XEG before the rest of the world figures it out!
> 
> @doctrine for any of the things you mentioned to be bullish, would require that the rest of the market does not see this yet, or isn't as smart as you.
> 
> My guess is that all of this is priced in, as are other risks that perhaps don't occur to you. Put it all together and I'm sure XEG is fairly valued based on all the information known today including the thesis you outlined, as are most liquid securities on earth. So what you are really buying is a speculative gamble about other exogenous forces or other unpredictable chaotic forces that cannot be accurately predicted.


The climate change crowd has forced many pension funds, institutional investors, banks and other large entities into policies of not investing in fossil fuels.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> 2022 is pretty bad so far but thanks to XEG my portfolio is down only 1.68% instead of 8-9% like most people with a 100% equities portfolio !


Sure good points, but you're sitting on a 3M gain. You could realize 1M in gains, move that to the more diversified Canadian index, and still leave 2M in XEG


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> I'm not sure why you guys are saying that institutional investors have abandoned oil & gas, it's just not true.
> 
> You can look at the top institutional and mutual fund holders of Suncor. There are tons of institutions holding these. Same with CNQ, these institutions hold 74% of the float... that's massive institutional holdings.
> 
> Pretty clear that institutions have not abandoned oil & gas.


Sure, 75% of Suncor and CNQ are owned by institutions. But do 75% of institutions own Suncor and CNQ? No chance. More like 1-2%. That is the abandonment. The market cap of energy in the S&P 500 is just 3%, even after a huge runup, so institutions didn't have to own it to keep up to the index.










Yet, despite all this being widely known about the fistfuls of pure cash being generated by oil companies, the trend continues even as they make more money every month while valuations on a relative basis are still getting cheaper. That is pretty epic divergence just in the last 2 months. Smart firms are getting ahead of it while buybacks accelerate and the amount of stock and debt available for purchase decreases. So energy stocks don't need institutions to outperform. Imagine what happens if institutions decide energy is important to own. Or if oil prices keep going up. Neither are priced in.


----------



## hboy54

hboy54 said:


> There is every chance this year that a daily portfolio gain will be larger than my portfolio value circa March 2020.


Yesterday was the day. BTE almost got me there all by itself.

I call fossil fuels energy the hypocrisy trade. Most everyone agrees that we have a problem with rising temperatures due to GHGs, but talk is cheap: almost nobody actually wants to personally do much about it. Tag the energy companies with the responsibility and carry on with life at 130kmh on 400 series highways, continue to lust after 4000SF houses, and fly out twice annually on vacations.


----------



## peterk

doctrine said:


> Sure, 75% of Suncor and CNQ are owned by institutions. But do 75% of institutions own Suncor and CNQ? No chance. More like 1-2%. That is the abandonment. The market cap of energy in the S&P 500 is just 3%, even after a huge runup, so institutions didn't have to own it to keep up to the index.
> 
> 
> Yet, despite all this being widely known about the fistfuls of pure cash being generated by oil companies, the trend continues even as they make more money every month while valuations on a relative basis are still getting cheaper. That is pretty epic divergence just in the last 2 months. Smart firms are getting ahead of it while buybacks accelerate and the amount of stock and debt available for purchase decreases. So energy stocks don't need institutions to outperform. Imagine what happens if institutions decide energy is important to own. Or if oil prices keep going up. Neither are priced in.


As James said - I don't know why you think there is widespread shunning of O&G investments. There is a tiny bit of fringe divestment by small beans pension funds, and there is certainly widespread media sensationalism about ESG commitments to "not funding" oil and gas, but that is predominately about future bank loans to O&G companies, and that is entirely hollow anyways - it will just turn out to be "not funding O&G companies that don't have ESG statement" which is none of them... And if oil stays high they won't need debt anyways to fund future spending anyways.

More importantly, I don't know where the evidence is that divestment actually drives a stock price down. Why would it? The breadth of investor types does not dictate the market price, the major market mover do, and their analysis of what to pay. Wall street arbitraging will not let a company become undervalued simply because there is is "selling pressure" from one or some groups. The quants will instantly swoop in to correct things.


----------



## zinfit

hboy54 said:


> Yesterday was the day. BTE almost got me there all by itself.
> 
> I call fossil fuels energy the hypocrisy trade. Most everyone agrees that we have a problem with rising temperatures due to GHGs, but talk is cheap: almost nobody actually wants to personally do much about it. Tag the energy companies with the responsibility and carry on with life at 130kmh on 400 series highways, continue to lust after 4000SF houses, and fly out twice annually on vacations.


I have about 12k of BTE. my investing motivation was its position in the Clearwater area. It seems to be very oil rich deposit which has been recently discovered. and is highly productive. I own about 20k of Tamarack Valley for the same reason. BTE is making a great comeback and is looking like a promising operation.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> Sure, 75% of Suncor and CNQ are owned by institutions. But do 75% of institutions own Suncor and CNQ? No chance. More like 1-2%. That is the abandonment. The market cap of energy in the S&P 500 is just 3%, even after a huge runup, so institutions didn't have to own it to keep up to the index.


I don't see why that's a problem. Maybe some mainstream institutions abandoned them, but the world is a big place. There are tons of hedge funds and other professional players in market. Obviously some of them are still going to invest in energy.


----------



## doctrine

Abandonment isn't a problem. It is an opportunity, because the sector is having amazing returns without the participation of 97%+ of the investment funds out there despite energy underpinning our entire existence, something that is going to become obvious in an upcoming era of energy scarcity, which hasn't existed for 50 years. XEG new 6 year high. Anyone looking at oil product inventories and their rapid, even exponentially increasing, depletion across all categories would be absolutely shocked at what is actually happening out there, and this is before it is becoming harder to get Russia's 3 million boe/d of non-Chinese exports.


----------



## larry81

Wow, how high are we going folks ?

WTI @ 100 is inevitable a this point.

CNQ did a x4 since mars 2020 bottom while SU is still lagging the whole sector !


----------



## james4beach

Yeah not only do you have the existing trend in oil (up) but now we might get war speculators jumping on board and pushing up energy even further.


----------



## MrBlackhill

I'm hitting my head on the wall every day because in 2020 I bought NVA.TO at $0.80 but dumped it and it is now trading at $9.66 (12x). Also I bought OVV.TO at $8.40 and sold it after +270% profits, but it is now trading at $57.97 (7x). My portfolio would've been +30% higher at the moment.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> we might get war speculators jumping on board and pushing up energy even further


I'll be part of those. Instead of stock-picking my March contribution, I'm adding to XEG, because instead of speculating on stock picks, I'm speculating on the whole sector.

I dumped most of my Energy stocks last year because I wasn't comfortable with the sector and my speculations, and I wanted to secure my profits.

But this situation will certainly have an unprecedented impact.


----------



## newfoundlander61

I am glad I held on to my Suncor over the pandemic period as its almost back to what I original paid for it. The dividends have helped my overall total return for sure. Not sure if at some point in the future I should let this stock go and invest in something more stable, no way to know what oil will do down the road.


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> I'll be part of those. Instead of stock-picking my March contribution, I'm adding to XEG, because instead of speculating on stock picks, I'm speculating on the whole sector.


Me too, I'm planning on piling into the super popular, over-heated trade and going long oil (or maybe all commodities) in some way.

It's a bit of a hedge against disaster. What I'm worried about is an exponential increase in energy/commodity prices.

OTOH if energy prices crash and my investment goes down... fine, I'll be happy to see that too!


----------



## fstamand

SU ex div on march 3rd (hint hint).👍


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> I'll be part of those. Instead of stock-picking my March contribution, I'm adding to XEG, because instead of speculating on stock picks, I'm speculating on the whole sector.


I just joined the party. Not a big position, but today I bought some HUC, the Horizons crude oil etf which I'll count as part of my equity due to reasonably high Cdn equity correlation.

@larry81 let's all get rich together, though I prefer if we all lose money on this (see explanation below)

HUC is a pretty small fund, but I read up on it and think it's a decent structure. It holds purely December oil futures and seems to track just fine. Additionally the ETF liquidity looked OK to me.

The oil prices we see in the headlines shooting to the moon are the front months (next few months) of futures. _These have gone nuts_. However, the later months (including December) are only up modestly and have been more stable so far. I bought at roughly $85 oil, December.

*My reasoning: a quality of life hedge*

I bought HUC to help hedge for quality of life. Those December (and later) futures contracts haven't gone ballistic, currently $85. And maybe they never will, which is just fine with me. Right now the market seems to think that oil shocks are temporary and things will normalize soon. However, if the war causes farther dated oil contracts to "lift off" then we've got some really serious problems. HUC would insulate me from that risk as it would respond to that particular horror scenario.

And if longer dated futures never rally, and fall instead, then I'll lose money on HUC. Which is also fine with me, I would prefer this scenario as it's more economic stability.


----------



## larry81

Wow WTI @ 109 !


----------



## larry81

fstamand said:


> SU ex div on march 3rd (hint hint).👍


Also CNQ earnings on march 3rd


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Wow WTI @ 109 !


But keep in mind, that's only the front month contract and spot price. Here are the other futures:

June: $100
September: $87
December: $86


----------



## peterk

james4beach said:


> However, if the war causes farther dated oil contracts to "lift off" then we've got some really serious problems. HUC would insulate me from that risk as it would respond to that particular horror scenario.


Curious to understand what the "serious problems" and "horror scenario" are, and how do we understand what they are and how serious it is? See my questions in the other Poll thread.

It's seems the initial quick reaction of the world is "woaaa $100 oil - OMG what will the economy do?" but how do we quantify the impacts, compared to historical realities of the world operating and paying for their energy, and when/why does it become a problem? How does inflation, money supply, GDP, efficiency, industrial production energy usage, etc. fit into the big picture concept of "Oil is so high it is damaging the economy".

Just on the face of it, it seems odd to me that we would've been saying $100 is "too high" 10-20 years ago, and still saying that same thing today...


----------



## Covariance

investor65 said:


> I personally like CNQ over XEG.
> I like it over its peers as well: SU CVE IMO.
> Bigger dividend, better management, better performance.
> I'm surprised there isn't more interest in CNQ here.


I also hold CNQ.


----------



## Covariance

deleted


----------



## Covariance

james4beach said:


> I just joined the party. Not a big position, but today I bought some HUC, the Horizons crude oil etf which I'll count as part of my equity due to reasonably high Cdn equity correlation.
> 
> @larry81 let's all get rich together, though I prefer if we all lose money on this (see explanation below)
> 
> HUC is a pretty small fund, but I read up on it and think it's a decent structure. It holds purely December oil futures and seems to track just fine. Additionally the ETF liquidity looked OK to me.
> 
> The oil prices we see in the headlines shooting to the moon are the front months (next few months) of futures. _These have gone nuts_. However, the later months (including December) are only up modestly and have been more stable so far. I bought at roughly $85 oil, December.
> 
> *My reasoning: a quality of life hedge*
> 
> I bought HUC to help hedge for quality of life. Those December (and later) futures contracts haven't gone ballistic, currently $85. And maybe they never will, which is just fine with me. Right now the market seems to think that oil shocks are temporary and things will normalize soon. However, if the war causes farther dated oil contracts to "lift off" then we've got some really serious problems. HUC would insulate me from that risk as it would respond to that particular horror scenario.
> 
> And if longer dated futures never rally, and fall instead, then I'll lose money on HUC. Which is also fine with me, I would prefer this scenario as it's more economic stability.


Hi James; had a quick look at the fund documents. This thing rolls in June if I understand correctly. Meaning over an eight day period it buys Dec '23 and sells Dec '22 (which it is in now).


----------



## AltaRed

peterk said:


> Curious to understand what the "serious problems" and "horror scenario" are, and how do we understand what they are and how serious it is? See my questions in the other Poll thread.
> 
> It's seems the initial quick reaction of the world is "woaaa $100 oil - OMG what will the economy do?" but how do we quantify the impacts, compared to historical realities of the world operating and paying for their energy, and when/why does it become a problem? How does inflation, money supply, GDP, efficiency, industrial production energy usage, etc. fit into the big picture concept of "Oil is so high it is damaging the economy".
> 
> Just on the face of it, it seems odd to me that we would've been saying $100 is "too high" 10-20 years ago, and still saying that same thing today...


I am guessing the 'horror' scenario James is referring too is a longer term worsening of the situation in the Ukraine. Oil is a pretty small issue in what could be a long duration 'war' in the Ukraine that will affect a portion of the overall industrial supply chain for months or years. Multi-nationals will have to write off their Russian (and likely Ukraine interests), rare minerals for semi-conductors won't be available to semi-conductor plants, a 30% drop in the global wheat supply (Russia and Ukraine supply 30% of the world export supply), etc. That is in addition to the humanitarian issue settling millions of Ukranian refugees. Plus an unknown China response over the longer term.

Added: The oil issue will settle down in time. Imagine what will really happen if oil stays more than $100 for a sustained period. SA and UAE will have to pump more oil (if they can) to help avoid too much demand destruction caused by a recession or accelerated fuel transition or both, and then have to pull back when oil demand falls below 95 million barrels per day or so.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> But keep in mind, that's only the front month contract and spot price. Here are the other futures:
> 
> June: $100
> September: $87
> December: $86


Some people misinterpret this as oil is cheaper in a year, so prices will come down. A year ago, you would have seen a similar structure, albeit far less drastic, with March 2021 oil at maybe $65, and March 2022 at $57, for example. It's not a good predicter of future prices. Clearly oil still went straight up. 

You should interpret this backwardation of the forward curve as supply deficit (this is a huge understatement). If you have some oil today in storage, someone will pay a massive $20 premium over oil 6 months from now. The vast majority of oil demand is short term, not long term, so the price 12 months out isn't that important. So around the world, supplies are drawing out of oil tanks and oil tankers to be delivered as soon as humanly possible to refineries who are screaming for supply. 

Now, in a free market, this would be a huge signal to ramp up production. Drill, baby, drill. More supply to ease the crunch and bring prices back down. Oops - this isn't happening - supplies are being cut off by Russian financial sanctions and no one has seriously invested in oil in 8 years because of 3 successive price crashes and ESG promises to stop investing. And it takes time to fix it - years. So nothing is going to be fixed soon. 

Good luck out there.


----------



## james4beach

Covariance said:


> Hi James; had a quick look at the fund documents. This thing rolls in June if I understand correctly. Meaning over an eight day period it buys Dec '23 and sells Dec '22 (which it is in now).


That's true, but compared to other oil futures ETFs, I like the strategy. December futures are large and liquid. The rolling events are minimal, compared to USO (where it went horribly wrong). And at roll time, it's trading many months ahead of either contract. There definitely is risk on the rolling but I thought it seemed like a decent strategy.

Certainly one of my weirder holdings, but it's now a thin slice of my "equity" allocation within the Permanent Portfolio


----------



## james4beach

peterk said:


> Curious to understand what the "serious problems" and "horror scenario" are, and how do we understand what they are and how serious it is? See my questions in the other Poll thread.


It's my combined fears of inflation (higher cost of living due to significantly higher oil prices) + war or energy supply related shock which could drive oil prices to the moon... if it persists. Like if these oil prices go ballistic to $150 or $200 or something like that, and stay that high for several months, I think it would be a severe economic shock in all kinds of ways with generally bad outcomes for quality of life.

So I would rather *lose* money on this trade. If oil price stabilize or moderate, with new production coming online, then the price wouldn't keep shooting to the moon ... and I think the global economy would be fine, a big component of potentially insane inflation would moderate --> HUC declines, I lose money on the trade, and am still happy with the outcome.


----------



## larry81

Guys please help me, i am making so much money on this insane trade i dont know what to do. About +2.3M as i am writing this.

Maybe i should buy myself a second wife ! 🤣🤣🤣


----------



## peterk

james4beach said:


> It's my combined fears of inflation (higher cost of living due to significantly higher oil prices) + war or energy supply related shock which could drive oil prices to the moon... if it persists. Like if these oil prices go ballistic to $150 or $200 or something like that, and stay that high for several months, I think it would be a severe economic shock in all kinds of ways with generally bad outcomes for quality of life.
> 
> So I would rather *lose* money on this trade. If oil price stabilize or moderate, with new production coming online, then the price wouldn't keep shooting to the moon ... and I think the global economy would be fine, a big component of potentially insane inflation would moderate --> HUC declines, I lose money on the trade, and am still happy with the outcome.


Yeah I get what you mean, but I'm trying to understand if we can quantify with some metric what "high" oil prices actually are, other than those that cause "severe economic shock" etc. All good descriptors, but doesn't help me know what to do, particularly.

Like AR's chart showed, inflation adjusted we're barely even at 2012 prices, and not close to the 2008 or 1980 peaks (did high oil even have a large contributing factor in the 2008 recession? Not that I'm aware of).

I'm thinking some sort of "global economic output achieved / dollar spent on energy/oil" type of metric. Though I don't know if it's total global output or just some sectors, and I'm sure it's super complicated.


----------



## AltaRed

The trend is down for oil usage as a percentage of GDP. See Figure 2 in Oil Global Intensity study. You can't see recessions in that figure or Figure 1, but you can see the effect of recessions in Figure 3. The 1991 recession, the dotcom bust of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008. In short, the relationship is complicated as you suggested. 

The paper overall is a pretty heavy read but the trends are actually quite logical. Looking at the Figures alone is probably good enough.

I think it is pretty clear though, on a multi-year basis, oil usage per GDP dollar will continue to decline as efficiencies and fuel transition continues to occur.


----------



## cainvest

larry81 said:


> Guys please help me, i am making so much money on this insane trade i dont know what to do. About +2.3M as i am writing this.


I wouldn't call it insane but a fine position to be in for sure!



larry81 said:


> Maybe i should buy myself a second wife ! 🤣🤣🤣


That could cut your net worth in half and solve your profit issue.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Guys please help me, i am making so much money on this insane trade i dont know what to do. About +2.3M as i am writing this.


I suggest thinking about what happened in Alberta during the last oil & gas boom. There were people who made enormous incomes, or their equity shares went up tremendously (plus stock compensation etc) and were sitting on fortunes. Many probably kept the shares they were compensated with because that's what people tend to do when granted shares. It can result in outlandishly high concentration.

Those who moved that money into broader, diversified portfolios got to keep all that wealth. But the ones who remained concentrated in O&G shares ended up seeing it sharply decline later during the bust.

I know that's not exactly your situation but I still think it's an argument for walking away with at least some of the windfall profits, and moving them into a highly diversified portfolio. If I was in your shoes, I would set a schedule, some interval to liquidate 1/5 of the position at a time (or whatever) and shift to diversified holdings.

That's just me though, I'm not much of a gambler and I also haven't made millions in the stock market.

I also realize, from your earlier posts, that you have a huge amount of wealth and even though XEG is into the millions, it's not all your money. So if you really have something like $10 to $20 million equity wealth, I doubt it makes much of a difference either way.


----------



## peterk

AltaRed said:


> The trend is down for oil usage as a percentage of GDP. See Figure 2 in Oil Global Intensity study. You can't see recessions in that figure or Figure 1, but you can see the effect of recessions in Figure 3. The 1991 recession, the dotcom bust of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008. In short, the relationship is complicated as you suggested.
> 
> The paper overall is a pretty heavy read but the trends are actually quite logical. Looking at the Figures alone is probably good enough.
> 
> I think it is pretty clear though, on a multi-year basis, oil usage per GDP dollar will continue to decline as efficiencies and fuel transition continues to occur.


That's wonderful! Thanks AR I will try and give it a read this weekend.

It would seem to suggest that my thesis then might be going in the right direction. That "high" oil prices, due to energy intensity decrease overall (efficiencies) and oil decrease specifically (from other sources coming online), will not generate the drag on the economy that it once did, nor the inflation, nor will it force central bank action as it once did, and big cyclical swings from growth to recession will be lesser than they once were (due to energy costs anyways), and, finally - that markets will be able to tolerate much higher oil prices for longer, without it becoming an economic crisis.

If you can't tell, I'm bullish on oil. Desperately trying to find some piece of information that will convince me that I'm delusional and mistaken, but i haven't found it yet.
I'm overweight oil, but have not bought any for long while now, and am committed to not buying more. I plan to sell at least some this year, but how much and when I don't know. I also work in oil directly, so am not following the basic investing rules at all... bad.


----------



## peterk

larry81 said:


> Maybe i should buy myself a second wife ! 🤣🤣🤣


Well you might as well now, then, before wife #1 finds this thread.


----------



## AltaRed

peterk said:


> If you can't tell, I'm bullish on oil. Desperately trying to find some piece of information that will convince me that I'm delusional and mistaken, but i haven't found it yet.
> I'm overweight oil, but have not bought any for long while now, and am committed to not buying more. I plan to sell at least some this year, but how much and when I don't know. I also work in oil directly, so am not following the basic investing rules at all... bad.


I am actually bullish on oil too, but for a limited time. 2025 maybe? 

Oil is still a very big deal in the global economy but it is shrinking in impact every year by small amounts. I think we will see that shrinking impact gain momentum as soon as EVs get significant traction in 2025 and beyond but the crystal ball is very cloudy as to how that will all play out. Maybe we will be lucky with a Goldilocks scenario whereby the struggle to maintain supply will be balanced with stalling of demand growth and eventual rollover into decline. Wouldn't that be something!

There are too many headwinds in the longer term (10+ years) to be bullish on oil. It is a mature industry.


----------



## Covariance

james4beach said:


> That's true, but compared to other oil futures ETFs, I like the strategy. December futures are large and liquid. The rolling events are minimal, compared to USO (where it went horribly wrong). And at roll time, it's trading many months ahead of either contract. There definitely is risk on the rolling but I thought it seemed like a decent strategy.
> 
> Certainly one of my weirder holdings, but it's now a thin slice of my "equity" allocation within the Permanent Portfolio


Agreed. Will be watching this one for potential deployment.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> Some people misinterpret this as oil is cheaper in a year, so prices will come down. A year ago, you would have seen a similar structure, albeit far less drastic, with March 2021 oil at maybe $65, and March 2022 at $57, for example. It's not a good predicter of future prices. Clearly oil still went straight up.


I do understand that the futures curve (backwardation) is showing supply shortages. But I'm not sure what to expect of, say, "oil futures 12 months out".

Let's imagine a steady increase in both demand and limited supply. So oil prices go up, generally... we can agree on that. If there are acute shortages, the short-dated futures go up very sharply (like we're seeing now).

But would we expect the longer dated (12 month out) futures to go up as well? I'm tempted to think -- no, because it's not an acute supply shortage. On the other hand, a 3 month futures contract quickly becomes a 1 month contract, as time goes by. Anyway I'm just having trouble understanding what to expect from the longer dated futures.

They all, eventually, turn into contracts for immediate delivery.


----------



## Covariance

The futures prices in contango. Tight supply, risk of supply.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Guys please help me, i am making so much money on this insane trade i dont know what to do. About +2.3M as i am writing this.


Larry, if you really want to take it up a notch, have you considered the leveraged version of XEG? It's HEU.

You could move 500K or 1M into this and have some real fun.

Last 6 months: XEG up 70% and HEU up 175%
Last 12 months: XEG up 94% and HEU up 238%
Last 18 months: XEG up 181% and HEU up 541%

Why play it safe when you can really amp it up? Warning... the returns only work out nicely like that when energy is in a bull market.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> I do understand that the futures curve (backwardation) is showing supply shortages. But I'm not sure what to expect of, say, "oil futures 12 months out".
> 
> Let's imagine a steady increase in both demand and limited supply. So oil prices go up, generally... we can agree on that. If there are acute shortages, the short-dated futures go up very sharply (like we're seeing now).
> 
> But would we expect the longer dated (12 month out) futures to go up as well? I'm tempted to think -- no, because it's not an acute supply shortage. On the other hand, a 3 month futures contract quickly becomes a 1 month contract, as time goes by. Anyway I'm just having trouble understanding what to expect from the longer dated futures.
> 
> They all, eventually, turn into contracts for immediate delivery.


The 12 month contract should reflect the longer term sentiment. It is also rising significantly; a year ago, the December 2022 contract traded at $55 and today it is $88. They are often less volatile though, from what I observe. Oil is just a really tough market because it is heavily driven by financial flows; a contract can trade 50 times before it is settled. So it is like a crazy version of the actual market. You can be right on fundamentals, but financial flows can blow your trade out of the water for reasons unrelated to the market.

Look at the action today. Short term crude is settling around $108, down 2%. But the December contract is still up almost 1%. So perhaps this $108 price is finding natural balance given current information with enough short term sticker shock to slow demand, but oil further out is being bid up, perhaps over concern that Russian oil won't be available anytime soon.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> The 12 month contract should reflect the longer term sentiment. It is also rising significantly; a year ago, the December 2022 contract traded at $55 and today it is $88. They are often less volatile though, from what I observe.


Thanks. That was my interpretation as well... I'm hoping to grab this longer term sentiment with less volatility than the spot price.


----------



## hboy54

larry81 said:


> Guys please help me, i am making so much money on this insane trade i dont know what to do. About +2.3M as i am writing this.
> 
> Maybe i should buy myself a second wife ! 🤣🤣🤣


I recommend a third sailboat over a second wife. Worked for me. 

For Eder and the one or two others that know sailboats, if I had waited another year, might have a 10 year old Sabre 406 or 426 instead of a 40 year old Corbin 39 LOL.

The returns in oil and gas have been truly stunning of late.


----------



## larry81

james4beach said:


> Larry, if you really want to take it up a notch, have you considered the leveraged version of XEG? It's HEU.
> 
> You could move 500K or 1M into this and have some real fun.
> 
> Last 6 months: XEG up 70% and HEU up 175%
> Last 12 months: XEG up 94% and HEU up 238%
> Last 18 months: XEG up 181% and HEU up 541%
> 
> Why play it safe when you can really amp it up? Warning... the returns only work out nicely like that when energy is in a bull market.


Not a big fan of 2x / 3x ETFs, if i wanted more action i would probably go active with something like Eric Nuttall Ninepoint energy fund. Eric Nuttall is basicly a prophet at this point !


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Not a big fan of 2x / 3x ETFs, if i wanted more action i would probably go active with something like Eric Nuttall Ninepoint energy fund. Eric Nuttall is basicly a prophet at this point !


He's not a prophet, he just had a very lucky 2021 which boosted his trailing performance numbers completely. You should look at the longer history. The numbers prove that Eric Nuttall hasn't done better than the XEG index except for 2021. If he really knew what he was doing, he would have consistently beaten the index for many years, but he didn't.

Here's a comparison of Eric Nuttall and XEG between 2012 - 2020, a stretch of 9 years using fund performance from Morningstar. You can see that Nuttall performed exactly the same as XEG at -8.9% annualized.









So where was this active manager's great skills and insights before 2021? Did he just suddenly get endowed with smartness, but only starting in 2021?


----------



## AltaRed

Eric is no different than any other active manager. He spends some time in the sun and some time in the woodshed.


----------



## james4beach

AltaRed said:


> Eric is no different than any other active manager. He spends some time in the sun and some time in the woodshed.


Yeah, exactly. Active management is a funny game like that.


----------



## AltaRed

I will give Eric credit for slogging all those years with his fund though. I would have thrown in the towel.


----------



## james4beach

AltaRed said:


> I will give Eric credit for slogging all those years with his fund though. I would have thrown in the towel.


I'm impressed that he survived. From what I saw on the Morningstar chart, it looked like he had a drawdown in excess of 90% which is usually enough to kill any fund


----------



## newfoundlander61

I see Suncor punched above $40 for the first time in a long time.


----------



## doctrine

Suncor still below 2014 prices; yet it's profit per barrel/refining margin is higher, operating costs are lower, oil production is 80-90%(!!!) higher, with a capital program over 50% smaller in cost, and less shares outstanding thanks to recent buybacks, with now a higher oil price and no sign of the 2014 overheating production or competition for market share in sight. On a comparable level, you can make an argument for $80. Without considering any crazy $150 / record oil price environment.


----------



## AltaRed

doctrine said:


> On a comparable level, you can make an argument for $80. Without considering any crazy $150 / record oil price environment.


Yes, but I would find it stunning for SU to reach $80, and certainly not on a sustained basis. Investors no longer see fossil fuels as a growth industry so 2014 valuation multiples will likely never return. Just like it is for any highly mature industry.


----------



## larry81

U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN SAYS U.S. IS TALKING TO EUROPEAN PARTNERS TO LOOK AT THE PROSPECT OF BANNING THE IMPORT OF RUSSIAN OIL 

WTI @ 126 up 9.7%


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN SAYS U.S. IS TALKING TO EUROPEAN PARTNERS TO LOOK AT THE PROSPECT OF BANNING THE IMPORT OF RUSSIAN OIL
> 
> WTI @ 126 up 9.7%


I saw it at 128 when the futures opened.
High of 130!


----------



## wayward__son

larry81 said:


> U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN SAYS U.S. IS TALKING TO EUROPEAN PARTNERS TO LOOK AT THE PROSPECT OF BANNING THE IMPORT OF RUSSIAN OIL
> 
> WTI @ 126 up 9.7%


Only a few days ago the US dept of treasury put out a release to "underscore" that "Treasury remains committed to permitting energy-related payments", basically begging US FIs to keep processing energy payments to "help protect Americans, partners, and allies from higher energy prices that would drive more resources to Russia", i.e., we will happily encourage virtue signalling self censorship by corporate America until it actually starts to hurt. I cannot imagine the west having the stomach to go through with this but I guess we'll see.


----------



## newfoundlander61

I first took a full position in SU on 21 Feb 2019, as of today I am finally back in the black.


----------



## larry81

newfoundlander61 said:


> I first took a full position in SU on 21 Feb 2019, as of today I am finally back in the black.


I would sell ASAP, on top of the sub performance there is also the opportunity cost (VCN did ~30% during the same period).


----------



## newfoundlander61

My guess is this stock won't just keep going up. Its in my TFSA, just need antoher stock to buy to keep fully invested when I sell it. My current holdings across a joint non-reg account and one TFSA each, I treat all 3 as one portfolio.

AQN
BCE
BNS
CHP.UN
CPX
ENB
FTS
L
QSR
RY
SU
T
TD
TRP


----------



## Money172375

I got in at $27 when COVID first hit. put 50k in. Wondering if and when I should sell. I’m not keen on holding oil companies long term (5+ years). It was probably one of a handful of trades I made the last 15 years which I don’t intend to hold forever.


----------



## newfoundlander61

I came across this point online the morning: "Back in 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea, Suncor stock surged 26% between February 21 and June 13, 2014."


----------



## james4beach

What do you think is happening with the oil price? It's now approaching $100, a huge decline from the recent highs.

Maybe there's more oil available in the world than people feared. Combination of more OPEC output + Venezuela + US production perhaps.


----------



## KaeJS

It was a large overreaction to begin with.

I assume it will hover around 100 for a bit.
$130 was just ridiculous.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> I assume it will hover around 100 for a bit.
> $130 was just ridiculous.


Oil is down to $100 tonight. This is good news in many ways, including for the inflation picture.


----------



## MrBlackhill

KaeJS said:


> It was a large overreaction to begin with.
> 
> I assume it will hover around 100 for a bit.
> $130 was just ridiculous.


Oil was at $100 from 2011 to 2014, why shouldn't it be higher than $100 in 2022?

Maybe instead it's oil at $50 from 2015 to 2019 that was ridiculous.

I know nothing about the oil industry, I'm just trying to see it the other way around.


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Oil was at $100 from 2011 to 2014, why shouldn't it be higher than $100 in 2022?


Oil is basically the same price today as it was in 2011-2013

Pretty impressive for a supposed super-high inflation period, and wartime. If it stays like this, I wouldn't be too concerned about serious inflation.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> What do you think is happening with the oil price? It's now approaching $100, a huge decline from the recent highs.
> 
> Maybe there's more oil available in the world than people feared. Combination of more OPEC output + Venezuela + US production perhaps.


Nothing fundamentally has changed, demand is strong and supply is only worse, and thus oil remains near 8 year highs. But I would suggest the short term reason is more financial flow related.

Long oil futures contracts were reported today at their lowest levels since at least 2018 because of massive unwinding and selling at orders of magnitude higher than the actual physical market. The last relative low in long oil futures contracts was December 2021 when oil fell below $70, but even then long exposure was higher. Also that 2018 low was a oil bear market too from which oil prices soared.

So exposure to oil by those that drive the price is at a multi year low. And oil is still $90-100. You pick your reason why everyone sold long oil contracts - perhaps because the war is going poorly and people don't want to be exposed to a ceasefire. Or too much risk in general. Too volatile. But sooner or later they will buy back, they always do. We're about to hit the biggest demand season in years with inventories approaching 15 year lows. Still lots of oil out there, and no physical shortages, but a lot less than a few years ago.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> So exposure to oil by those that drive the price is at a multi year low. And oil is still $90-100. You pick your reason why everyone sold long oil contracts - perhaps because the war is going poorly and people don't want to be exposed to a ceasefire. Or too much risk in general. Too volatile. But sooner or later they will buy back, they always do


I can see how this can happen, actually. There has been a general unwinding in financial portfolios through this year. It means that hedge funds dump things like tech stocks, but once you're in liquidation mode, I think one tends to also lighten up on all kinds of volatile securities. Commodities have been insanely volatile so it does make sense that hedge funds and investment banks would sell off positions to reduce their general risk.

That being said, I still think it's important (as an investor) to not get overly confident or "married" to an investment thesis. You can always be wrong.


----------



## londoncalling

Both @doctrine and @james4beach make great points above.

I agree with you Doc that not much has changed other than sentiment. It was sentiment that saw it spike and it was sentiment that saw it fall. I agree that we will see more demand in the upcoming months. Energy companies should have great results next quarter. This may or may not already be priced in based on if results exceed the higher expectations. With oil at $80-90 these companies are very profitable. 

My fear surrounding oil and commodities in general is how quickly we can solve supply issues by announcing a ramp up in production. The oil market is so easily manipulated. OPEC and the Saudi's can easily announce an increase in production. Even the discussion about it has caused a quick drop. We have seen this before Looking back at 2019 many thought we had seen peak demand but that was not the case. From an investor standpoint I hope current prices hover around $100 but see $80-90 as more realistic. This will remove some of the manipulation by OPEC and lower fuel prices. Late last week and again this week the term peak demand is being tossed around. At some point we will see demand destruction but I don't believe we're there yet. 

Current prices should help boost revenue but I don't foresee a big investment in capital expansion unless high prices are sustained longer term. Many of these companies have done a good job in cutting production costs. Will they be able to continue to do so while ramping up production? There may be labour and supply chain issues which should sort themselves out at a certain price point. At what point does it have too big an impact on profit. In previous cycles, the higher the price oil rose the quicker these companies were to waste money. I also heard about similar circumstances during the high oil prices in the 70s and 80s. Has the industry learned from the past or will the same mistakes be made again? Lessons are hard to learn.

Many of the smaller energy companies are indicating they are having problems getting financing. Those that are highly indebted will likely go by the wayside or be taken out. Is there a likelihood that some of the larger and better capitalized companies will be able to leverage opportunities by supplying capital to those that are having difficulties due to "ESG"? 

Here is an article I read last week to provide some historical perspective on 50 years of volatility.

Crude Oil Price History: A Chart of Events Since 1970 (thebalance.com)

To elaborate on James point, I wonder how many funds have used the recent spike in commodities to capture some gains to off set their losses in tech/Nasdaq stocks this year? It would be a quick way to mitigate a 20% loss. As always, being tied to your thesis can cause a lot of damage. I welcome others to play devils advocate or point out flaws in my thinking. Another threat is indecision. I had planned to jump into energy last fall but held off as I was still stinging from the last run up. We can certainly get in the way of our results sometimes.


----------



## AltaRed

There are far too many wild cards to make energy pricing and thus oil stock prices predictable. The best the companies can do is to take a stab at a longer term stable oil price and invest relative to that price point. Any near term boost is gravy and needed in reserve to take care of unexpected lows. Oil could easily be $70 at the end of 2022 as it is over $100. An abrupt recession may be coming given inflation and the need to stomp it out. By 4Q22, oil demand may be back to <95 million barrels per day, at which point, there will be excess production capacity, even with 0 exports from Russia.

Companies would be nuts to assume the current windfall continues for 2+ years, which is the kind of payout time needed to justify drilling investments (6-9 months from a standing start to a well being on production plus 1-1.5 years of production for payout). And that is just for conventional O&G and perhaps shale oil wells. Nothing to do with larger development projects which must look at much longer time horizons..


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> Oil is basically the same price today as it was in 2011-2013
> 
> Pretty impressive for a supposed super-high inflation period, and wartime. If it stays like this, I wouldn't be too concerned about serious inflation.


At $85 a barrel most of the oil producers are selling at less than three times cash flow. The traditional fair value was 5 times cash flow. I am in no panic and there is a very large pent up demand for travel in all modes.


----------



## Covariance

zinfit said:


> At $85 a barrel most of the oil producers are selling at less than three times cash flow. The traditional fair value was 5 times cash flow. I am in no panic and there is a very large pent up demand for travel in all modes.


Agreed, the fundamentals are only better. On the run-up my risk limits triggered an overweight so I trimmed, otherwise steady on. (For the record, not SU but a diversified group of others.)


----------



## zinfit

AltaRed said:


> There are far too many wild cards to make energy pricing and thus oil stock prices predictable. The best the companies can do is to take a stab at a longer term stable oil price and invest relative to that price point. Any near term boost is gravy and needed in reserve to take care of unexpected lows. Oil could easily be $70 at the end of 2022 as it is over $100. An abrupt recession may be coming given inflation and the need to stomp it out. By 4Q22, oil demand may be back to <95 million barrels per day, at which point, there will be excess production capacity, even with 0 exports from Russia.
> 
> Companies would be nuts to assume the current windfall continues for 2+ years, which is the kind of payout time needed to justify drilling investments (6-9 months from a standing start to a well being on production plus 1-1.5 years of production for payout). And that is just for conventional O&G and perhaps shale oil wells. Nothing to do with larger development projects which must look at much longer time horizons..


Agreed it is very cyclical. I won't hold my oil and gas stocks for the long term. I will probably be exiting during the summer during the period of peak demand. Many analysts are saying companies are reluctant to spend on increasing production and capex. For one thing financing is a bigger challenge now and international players and investors have pulled the plug on Canada.. When oil stocks are selling for 2 and 1/2 cash flow I don't think they are close to being fully priced.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> For one thing financing is a bigger challenge now and international players and investors have pulled the plug on Canada


And yet for the trailing year, our domestic XEG is up 79% whereas XLE (US and multinationals) are up only 49%

And for the last 2 years, XEG is up 373% while XLE is up 195%

Looks like Canadian energy equities are outperforming the world. How can that be happening if investors have "abandoned" Canada? If that were the case, wouldn't you expect XEG to underperform?


----------



## Covariance

james4beach said:


> And yet for the trailing year, our domestic XEG is up 79% whereas XLE (US and multinationals) are up only 49%
> 
> And for the last 2 years, XEG is up 373% while XLE is up 195%
> 
> Looks like Canadian energy equities are outperforming the world. How can that be happening if investors have "abandoned" Canada? If that were the case, wouldn't you expect XEG to underperform?


Check out XOP for US.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> And yet for the trailing year, our domestic XEG is up 79% whereas XLE (US and multinationals) are up only 49%
> 
> And for the last 2 years, XEG is up 373% while XLE is up 195%
> 
> Looks like Canadian energy equities are outperforming the world. How can that be happening if investors have "abandoned" Canada? If that were the case, wouldn't you expect XEG to underperform?


Interesting. Must be a lot of retail investors driving this vehicle. With all the ESG restrictions on investing institutional investing should have been impaired. Encana one of Canada's largest energy companies moved their head office to Denver and with a focus on the USA.. Enbridge bought a major USA pipeline operation and has basically decided to cease trying to invest in Canadian pipeline infrastructure. Total, Shell, the Norwegian Fund have all sold their interests in Canadian operations. Imperial Oil is the only one that is still here unless I am missing something. Share activity and capex aren't necessarily the same. Is there any big expansion in production in the oil sands or any of the other major oil formations in western Canada? What oil and gas companies are giving guidance on a significant big increase in capex? I am not sure comparing US energy ETFs with Canadian ETFs tells the story. The choice of stocks in much wider and diverse in the USA .Things like defence, tech, big Pharma are sectors much bigger and deeper then in Canada. Commodities and financials take up a much larger percentage of the TSE then the US S&P 500. They are different markets .


----------



## newfoundlander61

Is Suncor's share price strictly dependent on the price of oil or is there some seasonal aspect to it with the upcoming summer travel season with them owning retail gas stations on the back end. As a side a recent BNN guest's firm has a target on Suncor of $46.34


----------



## AltaRed

You need to look at the various financial reports to see what the various components of the business (upstream, refining, corporate retail) contribute to the bottom line and when. 

To the extent Suncor is a big player in the refining business, their margins will depend on the relative demand of each of the primary products of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel and those are particularly in demand in the travel and construction seasons. That should cause some seasonality to their financials.

To the extent Suncor also corporately owned Petro-Canada stations, they will also enjoy the margins that come with that side of the business in the driving season. I don't know if most Petro-Canada stations are corporately owned or franchised. The big integrateds have different philosophies about the retail sector. Some are strong on corporately owned networks and some (like Exxon I think) minimize their ownership in the retail sector.


----------



## Sam Sun

CTV News headline reads: "Canadian energy company Suncor says it is getting rid of its wind and solar assets." [email protected] (twitter)

The real story:








Suncor Energy Strengthens Its Focus on Hydrogen and Renewable Fuels for Energy Expansion


Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - April 4, 2022) - In addition to driving shareholder returns through its core business, Suncor (TSX:...




www.newsfilecorp.com


----------



## doctrine

Another week, another 52 week high for XEG today. Some of my holdings hitting 52 week highs: CNQ (all-time), TOU (all-time), ARX. Natural gas is at a 14 year high in North America. It is only a matter of time before oil gets there too. There is no SPR for natural gas and when it runs out for oil, look out. 

Suncor isn't quite at a 52 week high, but I like their strategy to sell wind/solar, and their cash flow is going to be epic; refining margins are extremely generous.


----------



## james4beach

I think we've had a situation where XEG (oil and commodity stocks in general) are benefiting not only from the oil rally, but also from a broad shift among equity portfolio managers to get out of growth and more into value.

Energy and commodity stocks tend to be value stocks so as large institutional managers see the writing on the wall that "growth" is toast, they buy into value --> energy.

I think that's currently a theme, so it's a dual benefit from an *oil rally + value rally*. I'm getting my piece of the action through the Canadian index, which is also value-heavy.

I feel bad for the CMF investors who have shunned Canadian equities due to previous periods of weakness. So many people got caught up in that insane US (tech & growth) rally of the last few years, and I kept seeing posts about how the Canadian index sucks, isn't worth investing in, etc. Many people were chasing returns with the US index and abandoned or under-weighted Canada to "maximize their returns". Oops.


----------



## newfoundlander61

I ended up keeping SU for now, looking for an exit in this at some point.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> I feel bad for the CMF investors who have shunned Canadian equities due to previous periods of weakness. So many people got caught up in that insane US (tech & growth) rally of the last few years, and I kept seeing posts about how the Canadian index sucks, isn't worth investing in, etc. Many people were chasing returns with the US index and abandoned or under-weighted Canada to "maximize their returns". Oops.


Canada benefits from the oil rally generally. It is our largest export and the massive cash influsion fills government coffers and has almost certainly prevented massive tax increases or a drop in quality of living. This will benefit all Canadian companies.

Another new 52 week high today for XEG. Natural gas at 14 year highs is also encouraging. Despite this 14 year high, natural gas is literally 500% more expensive in Europe and Asia right now, so it is still incredibly cheap energy that fuels the North American economy.


----------



## AltaRed

This commodity bull could have a lot longer to run than usual due to Russian sanctions and the length of this bull will depend on how long and how determined the sanctions will run and be effective. In the meantime, demand destruction will accelerate and the level at which it will occur will depend on both pricing strength and how long it is perceived pricing strength will remain. It will also depend on how quickly EVs can come to market due to supply chain issues. Once EV momentum is in running, there will be no going back. 

We will also see more electrification in space heating, e.g. heat pumps. Some jurisdictions will incentivize rate of space heat conversions with things like tax holidays on heat pumps and higher sales taxes on gas heating equipment (and continued carbon tax increases). It was always my intent to replace our 22 year old medium efficiency gas furnace with a high efficiency gas furnace in a few years but that will most likely no longer be the case. A high efficiency heat pump will most likely be the replacement regardless of what happens with Nat Gas pricing.

Investors in the O&G sector in particular will need to stay on top of their investments and know when to get off the train, and not to blow their brains out like those that did so in the 2015-2020 period. The turning point will likely be quite sudden as it was in 2015.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> I think we've had a situation where XEG (oil and commodity stocks in general) are benefiting not only from the oil rally, but also from a broad shift among equity portfolio managers to get out of growth and more into value.
> 
> Energy and commodity stocks tend to be value stocks so as large institutional managers see the writing on the wall that "growth" is toast, they buy into value --> energy.
> 
> I think that's currently a theme, so it's a dual benefit from an *oil rally + value rally*. I'm getting my piece of the action through the Canadian index, which is also value-heavy.
> 
> I feel bad for the CMF investors who have shunned Canadian equities due to previous periods of weakness. So many people got caught up in that insane US (tech & growth) rally of the last few years, and I kept seeing posts about how the Canadian index sucks, isn't worth investing in, etc. Many people were chasing returns with the US index and abandoned or under-weighted Canada to "maximize their returns". Oops.


Partially correct. I own Diamondback , Enerplus and Connoco on the US exchangesand they have performed very well. There are many value plays in the US markets and they have some great defensive sectors that are limited in Canada. Big Pharma and managed healthcare are two such sectors. For any stock picker you won't find more choice then the US market. I wouldn't be quick to reject the big techs like Amazon, Google, Microsoft ,Apple . They are still showing extraordinary growth and they are sitting on a giant sized pile of cash. Market psychology has put them temporarily out of favour . A few more quarters of blowout numbers can change that in a hurry.


----------



## hboy54

Fossil energy marches on with new 52 week highs in SU and others today.


----------



## larry81

Another new 52 week high today for XEG !

I am now up 2.8M on my initial investment, not sure when is this wild ride is ending !


----------



## doctrine

The story goes on. XEG at $20 is my base case for this year, and I think $30 next year is in the cards. The price of oil must rise to demand destruction and $100 is not that price.

52 week highs on almost every oil and gas stock on the TSX. New all time highs for CNQ and TOU. 52 week and all-time highs are on their own, very bullish. And the sector is so under owned that momentum, quantitative, fundamental, FOMO, and technical buying could all come into play at the same time.


----------



## zinfit

AltaRed said:


> This commodity bull could have a lot longer to run than usual due to Russian sanctions and the length of this bull will depend on how long and how determined the sanctions will run and be effective. In the meantime, demand destruction will accelerate and the level at which it will occur will depend on both pricing strength and how long it is perceived pricing strength will remain. It will also depend on how quickly EVs can come to market due to supply chain issues. Once EV momentum is in running, there will be no going back.
> 
> We will also see more electrification in space heating, e.g. heat pumps. Some jurisdictions will incentivize rate of space heat conversions with things like tax holidays on heat pumps and higher sales taxes on gas heating equipment (and continued carbon tax increases). It was always my intent to replace our 22 year old medium efficiency gas furnace with a high efficiency gas furnace in a few years but that will most likely no longer be the case. A high efficiency heat pump will most likely be the replacement regardless of what happens with Nat Gas pricing.
> 
> Investors in the O&G sector in particular will need to stay on top of their investments and know when to get off the train, and not to blow their brains out like those that did so in the 2015-2020 period. The turning point will likely be quite sudden as it was in 2015.


Peace in the Ukraine would be a headwind . Lifting of restrictions in China would be a positive. Resumption of travel would be a plus. It looks like demand will be well ahead of supply for the time being. A recession would put a big dent in demand. Expanded Capex and production is another potential headwind. What am I missing? It is clearly a cyclical trade and getting out at the right time is important.


----------



## Raggedy Dandy

Talk of a strategic review and management/board shakeup seems to make the market happy...









Suncor Is Targeted for a Shakeup by Activist Investor Elliott


Elliott proposes to shake up management and enhance Suncor's board, saying the move could unlock up to $30 billion for shareholders of the Canadian oil producer.




www.barrons.com


----------



## doctrine

Elliott is a legitimate and very large hedge fund that is going to stick around until they have their way. While this is likely good news for Suncor shareholders, and maybe not great news for some of the Board or the CEO, there is possibly more meaning here for Canadian investors. This may be a sign that capital could return to the sector and start bidding up the distressed valuations of Canadian oil companies. Maybe not right away, but if Elliot is successful, then you could see more action here.

My impression is that both the financial community and shareholders are initially incredibly welcome of this activism for Suncor, and there will be material changes. You can see it in the massive share price jump.

XEG and Suncor both closed at new 52 week highs.


----------



## james4beach

Look at that Suncor chart and today's jump. WOW!

Happily enjoying my energy exposure in the TSX index.


----------



## newfoundlander61

I am still holding my SU shares, was close to letting them go a few weeks back now it could pop above $50 the the future. No one knows for sure but this recent pop regardless of the reason was a nice surprise.


----------



## londoncalling

Great news for SU shareholders and the overall Canadian energy market.


----------



## zinfit

Hate to bragg but I can't resist. Diamondback [Fang]. It reported today it is paying a very generous discretionary dividend and a regular dividend. The combined dividend is 8%. It has a strong position in the Permian basin and its costs are extremely low. They have a strong balance sheet and have been buying back shares and paying down debt. They have much better access to the major refiners then most other producers. They were up close to 8% today. I have a small position in Suncor. I have much larger positions in Fang, Enerplus, Cernovus and ARC and feel much better about their future prospects.


----------



## doctrine

I've sold my Suncor shares, which was my biggest position, at a handsome profit thanks to the recent run-up. I owe a crap ton of taxes on it which have been put aside, but the bulk has been moved into Cenovus which is now my biggest position. Suncor is still cheap and a buy but I think CVE is both cheaper and higher quality and has a more direct path to high shareholder returns, and I have a $40 target and I think CVE gets there faster than SU gets to $80.

The real show on oil hasn't even yet begun. Inventories are dropping everywhere as fast or faster than they have been doing for 2 years. The US is emptying its strategic reserve at maximum velocity. Russian oil is already starting to back up and this will get worse. China in lockdown is the only thing stopping a short term crisis. I still have a base case target of $20 on XEG this year and a more realistic fair value target of $30 - lots of upside.

Oh and a new 52 week and 8 year high on XEG.


----------



## zinfit

Anyone got thoughts on the drillers and oil service stocks? Would think there are untapped areas which could be exploited . People say the industry isn't interested in capex for a host of reasons. $100 oil and $8 gas must be awful tempting . Tamarack and Baytex have been drilling in the Clearwater basin with great results. If one does move in this direction which is the best prospect? Halliburton ,Ensign , Precision, Calfrac?


----------



## larry81

Finally reached +3M on my XEG holding (including div) this morning ! Incredible ride and i think its not finished ! Like our friend doctrine, i also believe there lots of upside left in the oil sector.

Thanks to XEG i am up +3% YTD instead of -10% like everyone else !


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Thanks to XEG i am up +3% YTD instead of -10% like everyone else !


This post has me green with envy. Not because you are +3% YTD, but because it shows how much wealth you really have.

Congratulations on hitting 3M on the XEG trade. Well done.


----------



## londoncalling

zinfit said:


> Anyone got thoughts on the drillers and oil service stocks? Would think there are untapped areas which could be exploited . People say the industry isn't interested in capex for a host of reasons. $100 oil and $8 gas must be awful tempting . Tamarack and Baytex have been drilling in the Clearwater basin with great results. If one does move in this direction which is the best prospect? Halliburton ,Ensign , Precision, Calfrac?


I am not sure how long it will be before the drillers start to see some attention. The last time oil was at record prices the industry was punching holes everywhere. I think there is still some uncertainty over supply constraints for frac materials. Also a lot of the labour left during the down turn. For now, energy companies are happy to make the easy money before seeking higher cost supply. I think you are correct that the next opportunity is with this part of the sector. If I were to make this play I would look to the companies that supply these operations and than the companies themselves.


----------



## zinfit

londoncalling said:


> I am not sure how long it will be before the drillers start to see some attention. The last time oil was at record prices the industry was punching holes everywhere. I think there is still some uncertainty over supply constraints for frac materials. Also a lot of the labour left during the down turn. For now, energy companies are happy to make the easy money before seeking higher cost supply. I think you are correct that the next opportunity is with this part of the sector. If I were to make this play I would look to the companies that supply these operations and than the companies themselves.


 You raise good points. I heard that a big constraint on increasing production in the Permian was a big shortage of oil field workers and pipes. Even if companies wanted to increase production there are a number of limiting constraints.


----------



## londoncalling

Bad day for oil stocks on the market. 

SU reported after hours

Suncor Energy quarterly profit jumps more than three-fold (msn.com)

@zinfit any progress on your search for a driller?


----------



## doctrine

Nice results for SU, dividend restored to just above 2020 levels.

I've looked for a variety of oil services stocks. My problem is typically they are either still losing money or barely breaking even, and/or have a lot of debt, and/or do not trade at a sufficient discount to justify the valuation. TCW, for example, making some money and debt free, but trades at 2 times book, yikes. They are all under margin/inflationary pressures too. I just think there needs to be more consolidation in the space because they are still willing to work for a loss.

So sticking with the oil and natural gas stocks for now.


----------



## peterk

I thought there would be a bigger dividend increase than 12% actually. But looks like they're sticking with debt buy-down for another $3B to go, before throttling that back to 1/2 speed, and increasing the buy-back to insane levels. Both those should mean accelerated dividend increases in 2023+ though, one would think.

I honestly don't see how the dividend doesn't at least double in the next ~3 years... What will the price move to if that happens? If Suncor becomes priced as a no-growth cash cow it should yield around 6% no? So a doubling of dividend would mean a $55 price point at 6% yield. That seems to me a conservative estimate for the next few years.


----------



## zinfit

doctrine said:


> Nice results for SU, dividend restored to just above 2020 levels.
> 
> I've looked for a variety of oil services stocks. My problem is typically they are either still losing money or barely breaking even, and/or have a lot of debt, and/or do not trade at a sufficient discount to justify the valuation. TCW, for example, making some money and debt free, but trades at 2 times book, yikes. They are all under margin/inflationary pressures too. I just think there needs to be more consolidation in the space because they are still willing to work for a loss.
> 
> So sticking with the oil and natural gas stocks for now.


I believe Ensign had a very strong quarter. It is pretty well run by Murray Edwards. The basic problem is finding the workers and the pipe do do more drilling.


----------



## peterk

zinfit said:


> I believe Ensign had a very strong quarter. It is pretty well run by Murray Edwards. The basic problem is finding the workers and the pipe do do more drilling.


Mega crunch for various trades workers on-going right now. So much so that projects need to be re-thought and/or shuffled around. Great time for young folks to come out west and work hard for a few years, earning $5k/week.


----------



## doctrine

zinfit said:


> I believe Ensign had a very strong quarter. It is pretty well run by Murray Edwards. The basic problem is finding the workers and the pipe do do more drilling.


ESI had nice results, a small 4 cent a share net profit, but they still have $1.4B of debt, and still close to 5 times debt to funds flow and almost 6 times debt to EBITDA. Any deterioration in their business could still hurt equity holders a lot. ESI probably a good stock if demand really heats up as a leveraged oil services company, but for me I would prefer much lower debt. But that's just my opinion, I prefer stocks that have a lower chance of going to zero because of debt. You have ESI with debt problems but 0.6 P/B, and TCW with no debt but 2 times P/B..3-4 times difference in valuation is quite extreme.


----------



## AltaRed

peterk said:


> I thought there would be a bigger dividend increase than 12% actually. But looks like they're sticking with debt buy-down for another $3B to go, before throttling that back to 1/2 speed, and increasing the buy-back to insane levels. Both those should mean accelerated dividend increases in 2023+ though, one would think.
> 
> I honestly don't see how the dividend doesn't at least double in the next ~3 years... What will the price move to if that happens? If Suncor becomes priced as a no-growth cash cow it should yield around 6% no? So a doubling of dividend would mean a $55 price point at 6% yield. That seems to me a conservative estimate for the next few years.


The better run commodity companies don't raise dividend payouts too far for good reason. Large payouts become unmanageable during downturns (and it is inevitable another downturn is on the horizon somewhere) and a cut is a major bleed relative to the same amount in dividend increase. It is human nature for a cut to feel twice as bad as a caress. Only idiot companies like the Crescent Points of the industry act irresponsibly with pseudo ponzi schemes.

SU is much better off continuing to buyback shares and pay off even more debt. It is a no brainer increasing EPS.


----------



## zinfit

AltaRed said:


> The better run commodity companies don't raise dividend payouts too far for good reason. Large payouts become unmanageable during downturns (and it is inevitable another downturn is on the horizon somewhere) and a cut is a major bleed relative to the same amount in dividend increase. It is human nature for a cut to feel twice as bad as a caress. Only idiot companies like the Crescent Points of the industry act irresponsibly with pseudo ponzi schemes.
> 
> SU is much better off continuing to buyback shares and pay off even more debt. It is a no brainer increasing EPS.


I own an American producer with the symbol Fang. They pay out discretionary dividends when things are going well. They paid one for 4% this past quarter in addition to their regular dividend. Buying back stock or making one time dividend payments make more sense for cyclical stocks.


----------



## zinfit

Another example of how dysfunctional the market is these days. Despite good numbers SU traded down 1.25% today. They probably missed the estimates by 2 cents. AS long as oil stays above $75 these companies will have great earnings and cash flow. At $90 or 100 cash flow can be over 30% of the stock valuation. Will be curious what the price for oil will be come July and August. I haven't noticed any drop in traffic in Calgary .


----------



## londoncalling

I am considering picking up Chevron on the next dip to play both the upstream and downstream play. I think they will be able to adapt to EV by converting their service stations. I meant to pick them up in early 2020 but got excited by many other buying opportunities during the pandemic crash. I haven't taken a close look at the valuation but will do so before the next earnings in July. I am not sure if an opportunity will present itself until the war in Ukraine has ended. I think demand destruction for oil is a ways out. Adding to energy would tilt my commodity exposure to the oily side as I haven't purchased a lumber stock after selling WEF last fall.


----------



## james4beach

There seems to be a big difference between the performance of XEG and ZEO (BMO's equal weight energy)

In the last 2 years, XEG is up a cumulative 226% while ZEO is only up 150%

That's a massive difference! Any explanations for this? Which do you think is the better fund going forward?


----------



## doctrine

ZEO includes pipeline/midstream companies, which are far less volatile on the downside and the upside, because their earnings are largely either regulated or based on long term contracts. ZEO has PPL, TC, KEY, and ENB, which make up about 37% of the fund. Those companies sold off, but not like oil companies which many cases were down 80%+ during the 2020 crash.

I view midstream companies as nearly an entirely different sector. I am not currently considering to invest in them, even though I've owned 3 of those 4 companies in the past, in general because although they have steady earnings, they also have high debt and pay out most of their earnings in dividends, and growth is likely to be very challenging within the time frame (20 years) in which their debt will be due.

Consider on the other hand how I can invest in oil and natural gas companies that in some cases are debt free today (like TOU, Canada's largest natural gas producer), at far lower valuations than pipelines, and I have full exposure to the current spike in high energy prices which more than offsets any longer term risk in the sector.


----------



## larry81

When will this wild ride end ?


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> When will this wild ride end ?


Adopt me, please.


----------



## zinfit

larry81 said:


> When will this wild ride end ?


When supply and demand are in reasonable balance. I don't think that will be happening for quite awhile. OPEC can't produce much more oil, Canadian and US energy companies are reluctant to invest more capital to find new production, summer is the high demand season and the elegant in the room is China. If China lifts its lockdowns we will see an upsurge in demand. At some point we might see demand destruction but I don't see yet in any major way.


----------



## james4beach

My small HUC position is hitting new all time highs as well.

I think at some point I will rotate HUC into XEG


----------



## peterk

larry81 said:


> When will this wild ride end ?





KaeJS said:


> Adopt me, please.


If XEG hits $18 Larry will be onto wife #3! Sorry KaeJS, he can't afford you.


----------



## zinfit

My portfolio has been 90% oil and gas stocks for the past 2 months. If one appreciates the macro economic trends being in the right sectors is a rewarded strategy. I have started taking positions in companies that provide the materials for the coming EV change over. If you get in the right stocks in this area that should be like catching fish in a rain barrel. I think I up over 10% over the past three days on Enerplus and Whitecap. I have a big position on Enerplus. I like the research that RBC does on oil and gas . Enerplus was one stock they put on their top global stock portfolio. I have 6 or 7 others but Enerplus is my favourite. In this market I like the straight producers over the integrated companies.


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> My portfolio has been 90% oil and gas stocks for the past 2 months


Curious, do you mean 90% of your overall (total) investments in everything? Or do you also have things like bonds.


----------



## doctrine

Suncor hit my $50 base case target. Very nice.

Where does the ride end? Who knows, but consider diesel was selling as high as $275 a barrel wholesale this month. And gasoline above $225 a barrel. Refining margins competely blew out because of lack of supply. Refiners normally make about $25 a barrel. Refining utilization is now running close to 20-30 year highs so some of the margins are coming down now.

If China wasn't locked down, and the US wasn't dumping its strategic reserve onto the general market, oil would be a lot higher. If refining margins were only double the typical $25 a barrel, oil could easily be $175. XEG is nowhere reflecting anything close to the $114 price today.

I would say we are near the end of the beginning of the oil bull run. Most of the pieces are in place. Inventories critically low, the last oil reserves are being drained but not drained yet. Windfall taxes starting which will reduce investment. Subsidies are increasing because of consumer backlash. The real gong show won't happen until probably next spring when options start to run out. This generational energy crisis on a scale which has yet to be recognized fully only starts to be better when mass investment in production starts, and you can see the opposite is still happening virtually everywhere. We haven't even started to fix the problem, we are only making it worse.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> Curious, do you mean 90% of your overall (total) investments in everything? Or do you also have things like bonds.


90% of my stocks in a 70/30 portfolio .


----------



## newfoundlander61

I was considering selling a few bucks per share back but ended up keeping it, lucky call I guess.


----------



## larry81

Well, i am now +3.25M as of today (incl. dividends) on my XEG position ! Up more than 310% since my original purchase in april 2020.

I keep gettings PM about the original trade so here is the full details (from portfolioslicer):









Where does it end ? Will XEG reach 20$ by year-end ?


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Well, i am now +3.25M as of today (incl. dividends) on my XEG position ! Up more than 310% since my original purchase in april 2020.
> 
> I keep gettings PM about the original trade so here is the full details (from portfolioslicer):
> View attachment 23228
> 
> 
> Where does it end ? Will XEG reach 20$ by year-end ?


I'm off to Home Depot to get some rope and a bucket.

Nice work, Larry.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> I'm off to Home Depot to get some rope and a bucket.


Why? You should never compare yourself to others.

There will always be some gambler out there with ridiculous wins. Just like there are gamblers out there with ridiculous losses.

There are people who are buying some other asset today which will make millions off it. This is the nature of speculation and gambling. Larry's story is a neat one, but pretty inconsequential and there are no lessons to learn from it.

There are also wealthy people who threw millions of $ at speculations, only to get wiped out in the process. Remember that people posting at places like CMF have some survivorship bias. You hear from Larry because his aggressive speculation went well. There are many others out there who had aggressive speculations go badly -- they don't post here.


----------



## AltaRed

FWIW, I believe Larry81 placed a pretty savvy, but ballsy, bet back in April 2020 but I am pretty sure he did it on the premise his buy probably could not get worse, at least for very long and he has staying power. The oil industry wasn't going to disappear even if half the participants in XEG could have gone bankrupt. CNRL and Suncor were not going to be in that waste. Some things are purely speculative as in rolling the dice and others have much better odds than that.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> Why? You should never compare yourself to others.
> 
> There will always be some gambler out there with ridiculous wins. Just like there are gamblers out there with ridiculous losses.
> 
> There are people who are buying some other asset today which will make millions off it. This is the nature of speculation and gambling. Larry's story is a neat one, but pretty inconsequential and there are no lessons to learn from it.
> 
> There are also wealthy people who threw millions of $ at speculations, only to get wiped out in the process. Remember that people posting at places like CMF have some survivorship bias. You hear from Larry because his aggressive speculation went well. There are many others out there who had aggressive speculations go badly -- they don't post here.


I agree . My decision to reposition a large chunk of my investments into energy stocks was based on the numbers and the fundamentals. The gamblers are people who pile into cryptocurrency or meme stocks without any rational strategy . When the facts and market conditions change I will be out of these stocks. I am a sector rotator . I am currently putting money into EV material stocks and cybersecurity stocks. That decision is based on a fairly obvious observation of trends in both of these sectors. I put in an order for an EV and I am sure we see many millions of consumers will be doing the same . Especially with the trend in gas prices.


----------



## KaeJS

Either way, my utmost respect to Mr. Larry.

I'm just jealous. =)


----------



## zinfit

KaeJS said:


> Either way, my utmost respect to Mr. Larry.
> 
> I'm just jealous. =)


me too. It took a brave soul to pile into energy stocks in April of 2000.


----------



## Money172375

No comments about the $25,000 management fees?


----------



## OneSeat

zinfit said:


> My decision to reposition a large chunk of my investments into energy stocks
> was based on the *numbers and the fundamentals*..............................
> When the *facts and market conditions change I will be out *of these stocks.


Glad I am not the only one who believes in facts rather than prejudice.


----------



## AltaRed

Money172375 said:


> No comments about the $25,000 management fees?


It is not clear to me if this is the MER of the ETF or advisory fees, nor if that is cumulative from April 2020 or not. It is in line with low cost passive investing.


----------



## KaeJS

Money172375 said:


> No comments about the $25,000 management fees?


Who cares?

The guy made 3 mill.

Who's gonna squawk about 25k when they make 3.25 mill?


----------



## hboy54

What James called "aggressive speculation" in oil stocks I call most obvious investment in my 4 decades as an investor.

I would suggest that a lesson here might be that sometimes the market gets stunningly irrational and next time, instead of watching it go by, be brave and participate.

Another lesson might be to not fear a "falling knife" if it is clear value. You have no control over the irrationality of other investors, but you can just keep buying more shares. I bought energy shares maybe 2 or 3 dozen times between mid 2019 and late 2020 and was deep under water for about 2 years. The truth eventually emerges and am now up substantially.


----------



## MrBlackhill

hboy54 said:


> most obvious investment in my 4 decades as an investor.


I don't know the context of 2009, but just so I could debate about that 2020 investment being "obvious":

Maybe in hindsight it seems obvious to buy oil in 2020. I did and made a lot of money. I sold too early though. Why? Because I'm a beginner. But even if I were an expert... Buying is the easy part, knowing when to sell is the hard part.

When XEG crashed in 2009, maybe it was obvious to buy it at the cheap price of $12. Maybe one investor was gloating around in 2011 when XEG reached $22, doubling his investment. But did that investor sell at that moment? Did he kept holding in 2012-2013? And in 2015+?

The only one thing I know: stocks go down faster than they go up.

Also, sure, there are many indicators telling us that the oil sector "should" continue to go up. But wait, is that because we're the only "geniuses" out there seeing clear? I'm pretty sure there's much more "geniuses" experts in Wall Street who are also buying... So the current price _should_ reflect the current information that all experts have and current risk of that investment. And there's also the unknown behavioral / momentum factor in play.

So we can't truly know when will this rise stop and how fast it'll go back down, if ever.


----------



## james4beach

AltaRed said:


> FWIW, I believe Larry81 placed a pretty savvy, but ballsy, bet back in April 2020 but I am pretty sure he did it on the premise his buy probably could not get worse


Sure it's savvy, but it's still speculation, and could have gone another way. Over the decades there have been many assets and sectors which people tried to "buy low" and then lost their shirts.

Nobody ever knows where the bottom in a market is. There is an element of luck in anything like this. That's just the nature of the game.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> Sure it's savvy, but it's still speculation, and could have gone another way. Over the decades there have been many assets and sectors which people tried to "buy low" and then lost their shirts.
> 
> Nobody ever knows where the bottom in a market is. There is an element of luck in anything like this. That's just the nature of the game.


It wasn't speculation lol.

This post shows you haven't learned as much as you think and you are too risk averse, especially given your age.

Retail REITs were also a bargain in 2020 due to COVID. Are you saying that was speculative? Because it wasn't.


----------



## nobleea

There were many people here that were adamant that the price of oil would return to healthy amounts and quickly, primarily due to their knowledge of working in the industry for so long. It was almost predictable. James, you said at the time that there's no way you could know and it could go either way. At a macro level, the oil industry (and pricing) is pretty predictable.

There is no way this bet could have gone 'the other way'. Literally impossible unless COVID killed 20% or more of the worlds population. I'm not talking SU specifically, just general energy.


----------



## zinfit

KaeJS said:


> It wasn't speculation lol.
> 
> This post shows you haven't learned as much as you think and you are too risk averse, especially given your age.
> 
> Retail REITs were also a bargain in 2020 due to COVID. Are you saying that was speculative? Because it wasn't.


what is the speculation? The stocks I have are in the 5 or 6 PE ratio range. Most have very little debt and some will soon have no debt. They are trading at 2.5 or 3 cash flow. In the past peak stock prices were at 8 x cash flow. Cash flow is around 25 or 30 %. What will they do with this cash? two things share buyback and pay cash to the shareholders. I have a US energy stock that is into buybacks and dividends payments. They went from 3% to 9% plus. I am expecting another bump up on the dividends on the next quarterly report and subsequent reports. They are justing starting on that process. These companies were very profitable at 70 or 80 dollars. WTI is at 121 dollars today. NG is close to $9 and a year back it was selling at $9. When winter comes we can see prices much higher for NG. We are in a clear demand/supply imbalance and I see no turnaround in that situation for the next year. I guess demand destruction might bring oil down to 80 or 90 dollars but that will still leave these companies with a pile of cash. ESG are keeping some investors out of the market but that will be good news for the people not restricted by these guidelines. I can see Larry's investment growing at a significant level over the next 6 -9 months. Buffet has been putting a lot of his cash into energy stocks. Do you consider him a speculator or an investor?


----------



## james4beach

nobleea said:


> It was almost predictable. James, you said at the time that there's no way you could know and it could go either way. At a macro level, the oil industry (and pricing) is pretty predictable.


lol, oh my mistake then, I didn't realize the oil industry is pretty predictable!

Then why aren't active fund managers in Canada able to beat the index? If this kind of thing really was so obvious and predictable, active managers (including hedge funds and mutual fund managers) would reliably beat the index.

And they don't. This proves that someone making active bets (like thinking energy is entering a period of strength) cannot reliably and steadily make successful calls of this nature over the long term.

Markets have more uncertainty than you think @nobleea and @KaeJS . You are using hindsight knowledge to say something was [nearly] obvious -- but it wasn't. There is always uncertainty about how something plays out. When you guess at sectors over the years (like energy strength) you will win some *and lose some*. Over time, it's unlikely you will come out ahead doing this kind of thing.

I think it's kind of fun to bet on sectors but I only do it with a small amount of money because it's very unlikely to "win" at this game long term.


----------



## londoncalling

It's almost a given that oil was oversold and that at some point a catalyst would come along. what was unknown was when it would happen, what the catalyst would be, how high and how fast it would rise on the upswing. Commodities are cyclical. Anybody who has seen a couple cycles can recognize a general pattern. One cannot time the top and bottom exactly but can still manage to make some profits as it ebbs and flows.


----------



## larry81

Came across the following article this morning:








Is It Too Late To Buy Oil Stocks?


Is It Too Late To Buy Oil Stocks? Submitted by Kailash Concepts We get asked this question. A lot. Investors, scorched by multiple expansion...




www.nxtmine.com





Might be confirmation bias but IMHO well worth the read


----------



## nobleea

james4beach said:


> lol, oh my mistake then, I didn't realize the oil industry is pretty predictable!
> 
> Then why aren't active fund managers in Canada able to beat the index? If this kind of thing really was so obvious and predictable, active managers (including hedge funds and mutual fund managers) would reliably beat the index.


No they wouldn't. It's cyclical. One can tell when the conditions are right for the price to go up. When to get on and off are at their discretion. Half of your posts seem to be written for your own consumption to confirm your rigid AA plan is the right one, even when certain sectors shoot up. Long term it certainly is the right one. But that's not to say that there aren't opporunities to supercharge as one goes along.

The oil sector is definitely 'pretty predictable' for those of us who have worked in the industry for more than 10 or 15 years.


----------



## zinfit

larry81 said:


> Came across the following article this morning:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is It Too Late To Buy Oil Stocks?
> 
> 
> Is It Too Late To Buy Oil Stocks? Submitted by Kailash Concepts We get asked this question. A lot. Investors, scorched by multiple expansion...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nxtmine.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Might be confirmation bias but IMHO well worth the read


Thanks for the article. People figure NG and Oil are at record price levels and that is not true .NG was as high as $ 14 and Oil was at $150 back around 2006. I figure the demand /supply situation is much tighter now and back then the companies were using their profits to expand production. Anyways these stocks are still very profitable at 70 or 80 dollar oil. Back in 2006 the Canadian dollar was close to par with the US dollar. Today they are producing oil with a .80 cent dollar and selling it for $100 US. What could bugger things up? Trudeau comes out with a windfall profit tax. Let him try that. If he does the east can say good bye to Alberta and SK.


----------



## larry81

AltaRed said:


> It is not clear to me if this is the MER of the ETF or advisory fees, nor if that is cumulative from April 2020 or not. It is in line with low cost passive investing.


This is simply the 0.61% MER calculated on the total value of the investment. This is by far my most expensive position !!!


----------



## larry81

Another +2% day for the canadian energy sector 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣


----------



## james4beach

If the direction of oil is so predictable and obvious, why are you guys wasting time with non-leveraged things like XEG? When you know with such certainty where a price is going, you should use leverage.

In the last 6 months, XEG is up 73%. But UCO (leveraged oil ETF) is up 168%, more than double! And HOU (Horizons BetaPro oil) is up 185%

Those of you with the in-depth knowledge that lets you predict oil, have left a lot of money on the table. When it was so obvious and such a sure thing, why didn't you use UCO or HOU?

HNU -- leveraged natural gas -- is up 461% in the last year. Is that also an obvious and predictable commodity?


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> If the direction of oil is so predictable and obvious, why are you guys wasting time with non-leveraged things like XEG? When you know with such certainty where a price is going, you should use leverage.
> 
> In the last 6 months, XEG is up 73%. But UCO (leveraged oil ETF) is up 168%, more than double! And HOU (Horizons BetaPro oil) is up 185%
> 
> Those of you with the in-depth knowledge that lets you predict oil, have left a lot of money on the table. When it was so obvious and such a sure thing, why didn't you use UCO or HOU?
> 
> HNU -- leveraged natural gas -- is up 461% in the last year. Is that also an obvious and predictable commodity?


The problem is that those leveraged ETFs are rebalanced daily. There is decay. So even though the opportunity is apparent, the exact date of when things will turn around is still unknown. What is known is that it WILL turn around, but we don't know exactly when. 

Nobody wants to be decayed to death through a leveraged ETF. It adds an extra layer of risk.

But I guess if someone has the balls, then yes, a leveraged ETF would have increased risk and returns. But those products generally should not be held for days, weeks, months, years. They are meant for short term plays.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> If the direction of oil is so predictable and obvious, why are you guys wasting time with non-leveraged things like XEG? When you know with such certainty where a price is going, you should use leverage.
> 
> In the last 6 months, XEG is up 73%. But UCO (leveraged oil ETF) is up 168%, more than double! And HOU (Horizons BetaPro oil) is up 185%
> 
> Those of you with the in-depth knowledge that lets you predict oil, have left a lot of money on the table. When it was so obvious and such a sure thing, why didn't you use UCO or HOU?
> 
> HNU -- leveraged natural gas -- is up 461% in the last year. Is that also an obvious and predictable commodity?


There are many reasons to both take advantage of the oil market but avoid structural pitfalls. It is basic knowledge that oil is primarily a financial market, not a physical market. A typical barrel of oil is bought and sold 60+ times before it is actually delivered to the customer (i.e. refinery). Financial flows are not predictable and extremely volatile. So actually the best way to play oil, in my opinion, is with stable and long-dated assets, like Canadian oil sands or other oil producers, especially with low debt. Holding the underlying commodity itself with a time-expired contract doesn't make sense to me, and I don't have time to monitor such things daily. There are companies with 20-30+ years of cost-effective oil and natural gas reserves in the ground. Think of that leverage in a different sense.

Maybe I could have been more aggressive. But maybe the volatility would shake me off my conviction on a big drop. HOU dropped 45% from 8 March to 15 March and has not recovered while the XEG index continues to hit new highs.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> Maybe I could have been more aggressive. But maybe the volatility would shake me off my conviction on a big drop.


That's true, going the leveraged ETF route brings some insane volatility.


----------



## peterk

james4beach said:


> If the direction of oil is so predictable and obvious, why are you guys wasting time with non-leveraged things like XEG? When you know with such certainty where a price is going, you should use leverage.
> 
> In the last 6 months, XEG is up 73%. But UCO (leveraged oil ETF) is up 168%, more than double! And HOU (Horizons BetaPro oil) is up 185%
> 
> Those of you with the in-depth knowledge that lets you predict oil, have left a lot of money on the table. When it was so obvious and such a sure thing, why didn't you use UCO or HOU?
> 
> HNU -- leveraged natural gas -- is up 461% in the last year. Is that also an obvious and predictable commodity?


I have LEAPS in SU and XOM...

But agreed with J4B wholeheartedly. There is a lot of celebrating going on here in CMF for apparently "seeing the obvious no-brainer investment in energy in 2020 & 2021." Sure there was lots of entertaining analysis making a bull case, but everyone seems to think they have outsmarted Wall Street here... Not to belittle any CMFers and their abilities, but a few interesting statements about oil supply, low P/E's, FCF, industry knowledge, etc. are inadequate to conclude that you've seen through the fog of it all and made a wise investment...There's a lot of confirmation bias going on.

On the flip side - I remind myself that just because there are 6 guys on CMF talking about oil a lot it doesn't necessarily mean, though it might, that retail investors are getting too exuberant about energy. Looking for sentiment about if/when to exit energy is just as fraught with difficulty as when to buy.

Edit: to add the amateur analysis - WCS is at $133 Cad, and SSP is at $152 Cad currently... Wow!


----------



## londoncalling

As I stated earlier in this thread a catalyst is always needed to shift sentiment from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism. Currently one can look back to several circumstances that triggered the current valuation. (Inflation, Ukraine invasion, China lockdown, decreased capex, etc.) It may take the removal of several of these items to shift sentiment the opposite direction. Or it could take one. I tend to pay attention to seasonality with commodities more than other stocks and will continue to monitor and evaluate. I would also note that many investors of 2020 didn't advertise their purchases until the oil bull was charging ahead. I am sure we will also hear after the crash of many that sold before "X" happened. I am not saying that people are required to share this information in real time nor do I disbelieve them. However, I attribute the hesitation to simple fear aversion. Many are afraid to be wrong, criticized or questioned and that is natural. However, if you go through the various posts you can see who was buying in 2020 and who was not. I for one, was not. I sat on my hands and missed a lot of the ride. I also deployed a bundle into banks, telcos, pipes and utilities during the pandemic selloff. As @peterk notes when to get out will be fraught with issues as well. Some will get out too soon, some too late and a few may identify when the time is right. We have to remember every seller needs a buyer and every buyer needs a seller.

edit: typo


----------



## hboy54

james4beach said:


> If the direction of oil is so predictable and obvious, why are you guys wasting time with non-leveraged things like XEG? When you know with such certainty where a price is going, you should use leverage.
> 
> In the last 6 months, XEG is up 73%. But UCO (leveraged oil ETF) is up 168%, more than double! And HOU (Horizons BetaPro oil) is up 185%
> 
> Those of you with the in-depth knowledge that lets you predict oil, have left a lot of money on the table. When it was so obvious and such a sure thing, why didn't you use UCO or HOU?
> 
> HNU -- leveraged natural gas -- is up 461% in the last year. Is that also an obvious and predictable commodity?


Well the term I used was "obvious investment" and the time frame was circa 2020. It does not imply a certainty of outcome but rather very high expected value - there is still x probability of $0 in the summation of the expected value. It also doesn't imply certainty of timeline or price path. My portfolio dropped 85% from year end 2019 to minima circa March 2020, and now stands up about 270% from year end 2019. So no, not interested in leveraged products.

After greater than 10 bagger results in many names, I am not calling oil a "most obvious investment" now, though chances still look awfully good.


----------



## MrBlackhill

hboy54 said:


> My portfolio dropped 85% from year end 2019 to minima circa March 2020, and now stands up about 270% from year end 2019.


Wait what?! What kind of portfolio do you have, I'm interested and curious. Those are big swings up and down!


----------



## larry81

I am sorry to all the doomers here, but WTI futures bouncing back from NEGATIVE PRICING was really a no brainer. Yes it took massive balls to actually put the BUY order but it was the most logical thing to do.

Go take a look at the WTI 5y price chart here, i bough 2020-04-20:








Crude Oil Price Today | BRENT OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider


Oil Price: Get all information on the Price of Oil including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.




markets.businessinsider.com





Perfect timing or dumb luck ? I am still not sure 

PS: +3.4M as of today, its not even funny anymore.


----------



## MrBlackhill

larry81 said:


> I am sorry to all the doomers here, but WTI futures bouncing back from NEGATIVE PRICING was really a no brainer. Yes it took massive balls to actually put the BUY order but it was the most logical thing to do.
> 
> Go take a look at the WTI 5y price chart here, i bough 2020-04-20:


No offense, but you may not being looking at the right catalysts though.

I also bought lots of stocks in April 2020, lots of energy. Many did.

But how much profit were you at with your XEG position from April 2020 to October 2020? Barely any.

At that time, no one could predict when would the energy bull run start. It could've gone nowhere for many months. It started on November, 2020. Because of the US elections? Probably not. Because of Pfizer and Biotech successfully completing phase 3 of the vaccine? Most likely.

I know pharmacists who timed the market much better than oil experts. They didn't waste their money on energy in April 2020, they understood it would be a tech euphoria because of people working at home, until a vaccine is found. They were in tech from April to October 2020 and then in energy as they understood clearly where we were in the different phases of the vaccines development.

If the vaccine studies weren't successful and the pandemic continued getting worse, maybe we'd still be all locked at home and energy would still be in the volatility range it experienced between April and October 2020.

Hope for the reopening of economy, the beginning of the end of the lockdowns started in November 2020.


----------



## zinfit

larry81 said:


> I am sorry to all the doomers here, but WTI futures bouncing back from NEGATIVE PRICING was really a no brainer. Yes it took massive balls to actually put the BUY order but it was the most logical thing to do.
> 
> Go take a look at the WTI 5y price chart here, i bough 2020-04-20:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Crude Oil Price Today | BRENT OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider
> 
> 
> Oil Price: Get all information on the Price of Oil including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> markets.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Perfect timing or dumb luck ? I am still not sure
> 
> PS: +3.4M as of today, its not even funny anymore.


The price of crude oil isn't a big deal If it stabilizes around 90 -100 dollars most of these companies produce enormous amounts of FCF at those prices and which will be spent on debt reductio, share buybacks and payments to shareholders. I figure over the next three or four quarters dividends and one time payments to shareholders will be quite generous. If the price stays at $120 or more the payments will be beyond belief.


----------



## larry81

MrBlackhill said:


> No offense, but you may not being looking at the right catalysts though.


Agreed but many biotech and tech stock are now priced equal or lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Bet like this are actually in two parts, knowing when to buy and.. when to sell !!! I dont claim to have any prescience or market timing skills, my core investing philosophy is still low-cost passive investing.


----------



## hboy54

MrBlackhill said:


> Wait what?! What kind of portfolio do you have, I'm interested and curious. Those are big swings up and down!





> 80% oil and gas: BTE, PEY, OVV, SU. I was buying OVV starting mid to late 2019 between around IIRC $13-$20. At current ~ $74, doesn't look so bad, but it troughed out around $3. That is how one gets a -85%. I also loaded up more OVV in TFSAs and RRSPs at $3s while down ~85%. I bought BTE circa 2020 over 9 occasions at an average of $0.43 over 6 accounts (TFSA RRSP, margin) x2 to drop my ACB to $1.42. That and a few other moves is how one gets a +270%.


There has been some criticism elsewhere in the thread that "we" did not announce our moves circa 2020. I used to years ago explain why I do what I do, but there was no real interest, so I stopped. There are not many investors who step outside the conventional investing wisdom, so I am irrelevant.


----------



## zinfit

larry81 said:


> Agreed but many biotech and tech stock are now priced equal or lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Bet like this are actually in two parts, knowing when to buy and.. when to sell !!! I dont claim to have any prescience or market timing skills, my core investing philosophy is still low-cost passive investing.


I have the big techs, HD,Costco and Lowe's on my shortlist. When I move from energy I am fairly certain this group will get a lot of money. They will be here in 5 or 6 years and making a lot of profits. Sentiment isn't there friend right now but that will change in time. The material stocks for EVs is another group on my list. You can't be building 130 million EVs over the next 7 years without the materials needed to to manufacture these vehicles.


----------



## londoncalling

It was not criticism, or at least it wasn't intended to be. As a long time member Hboy I am familiar with your contrarian history of buying stocks when they are not bruised but when they are beaten down. You have done amazingly well, but it does require a strong stomach and a lot of conviction. I even recall a few stocks that I bought that I thought were great value plays where you questioned (rightfully) my rationale. GSK comes to mind which has been dead money for me for many years. Many may not follow your style. As I recall you are willing to accumulate the unloved stocks and hold for years waiting for the pop. If memory serves me well WFG(or another lumber play) was one that you bought near the lows before the start of the last lumber bull. (not the recent covid run).


----------



## newfoundlander61

I think SU will top out in the mid fifty range later this summer.


----------



## AltaRed

There will be additional headwinds that could stall continued momentum in the oilsands players. Discounts to WTI are increasing as Mayan crude is ramping up and Venezuela crude may start increasing. Both of them are direct competitors to WCS in the Gulf Coast refining market. There are not that many refineries that can process heavy sour crudes cost effectively. 

This weakness is one of the fallacies of how valuable (or not) Keystone XL would have been. WCS needs to find alternative refineries to the Gulf Coast and why I think TMX will likely prove to be more valuable than Keystone XL would have ever been. There are some Pacific rim refineries in need of heavier crudes, including the California coast that is suffering shortages of Bakersfield heavy and has to import.


----------



## james4beach

@larry81 are you going to buy this dip? This is now a 20% correction in XEG


----------



## zinfit

I note some of the USA energy stocks announced fairly substantial buybacks. Makes a lot more sense when the stock price has dropped 20% .


----------



## peterk

Ay - I shoulda trimmed back a couple weeks ago. Can't buy anymore, already overweight energy and overweight stocks generally - running low on cash.


----------



## londoncalling

I added to energy(CNQ) today and am now slightly overweight that position.


----------



## larry81

james4beach said:


> @larry81 are you going to buy this dip? This is now a 20% correction in XEG


My XEG position is down about 700k from peak !  

Not buying more but not selling (yet) either!!!


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Not buying more but not selling (yet) either!!!


I'm still long as well. I don't see any reason to abandon the trade as the trend appears intact, to me.


----------



## peterk

My net worth has been whipsawing around so violently in the past 3 years with oversized energy stock holdings, plus a few LEAPS calls (in energy as well as SPY). But at the same time, I'm not freaked out or unsettled by it. I think I'm getting better at handling the volatility.

I'm quite sure that if 100% of my NW was in broad equity holdings and ETFs like VTI, XIU, VEQT I'd be experiencing less volatility than I do right now. So that being known, I think I'm going to work towards adjusting my target asset allocation from 70/30, to 100% diversified stocks plus emergency fund. This will take a year or two to adjust, and I don't want to sell out of energy just yet, but I think that should be my goal for long term investing going forward.


----------



## james4beach

peterk said:


> My net worth has been whipsawing around so violently in the past 3 years with oversized energy stock holdings, plus a few LEAPS calls (in energy as well as SPY). But at the same time, I'm not freaked out or unsettled by it. I think I'm getting better at handling the volatility.


To each their own, but that sounds stressful. What happens if your net worth sharply tanks just as you are laid off, and left jobless?

My field of work is very unstable so that's a big reason I use a conservative portfolio. In fact my investments are more stable than my employment income.


----------



## Spudd

It seems it was an error for me to have sold my HXE the other day. The trend seems to have reversed. I should have followed my trading plan instead of trying to second guess. Oh well.


----------



## larry81

Still holding, +2.4M !


----------



## Pescado

Its unfortunate SU's safety record is so poor...another death this week!! The company seems to get held back for one thing or another. Up 80% in SU now and seriously considering taking out some profits and reinvesting in other Oil Sand companies and moving some profits into other sectors.


----------



## james4beach

Pescado said:


> Its unfortunate SU's safety record is so poor...another death this week!!


Yeah, a 26 year old.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/contract-worker-killed-suncor-mine-fort-mcmurray-1.6513626


----------



## Pescado

The CEO stepped down on Friday. 

13 people have died since 2014 working for Suncor. That is both employees and contractors. I was expecting more of a drop in share price Friday. They should do well on Q2 earnings.


----------



## peterk

Uhg - Couldn't help myself - Trimmed a bit of out of ENB and XIU for the cash, and bought more SU and XEG in my TFSA. Just a few thousand $$$.

Now I'm DONE. No more.


----------



## larry81

We are back !


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> We are back !


Yeah this rally appears to be intact. From a technical standpoint I think XEG looks really good, it stayed above its 200 day moving average.


----------



## larry81

Stil hanging !! I want some action !!!


----------



## newfoundlander61

Still holding my full position in SU, the dividend is good so no need to sell it just yet.


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> Stil hanging !! I want some action !!!


XEG seems to be holding strong, it's still above its 200 day moving average. That implies that the bull market is still intact.


----------



## larry81

I amstill holding and i am currently up +3M on my XEG speculative position !


----------



## larry81

Will XEG reach ATH ?.

I am now +3.2M, i plan to sell in early january to defer capgain for another year


----------



## londoncalling

larry81 said:


> Will XEG reach ATH ?.
> 
> I am now +3.2M, i plan to sell in early january to defer capgain for another year


I hope it does reach a new ATH in this bear market that would do a lot to help portfolio returns. can you clarify what you mean by "plan to sell"? Trim by X% or close the position? Is the reasoning purely from a taxation perspective or is there other factors for this decision?


----------



## AltaRed

I can't speak for Larry but I think XEG has topped or is near its top and it is time to cash in at least the majority of the position. I am almost certain XEG will never return to its ATH back in 2014, if for no other reason than fossil fuels can no longer attract the valuation multiples it did back in the commodity supercycle that was still in full swing in 2014. It doesn't matter what the earnings/share or cash flow/share is, or whether companies will be debt free by 2024+. Investors see a glass ceiling post 2025 for oil in particular with continued acceleration of the clean energy transition and 2023 will be a headwind year for oil if there is a global recession and demand falls off ~1 million barrels per day.. Larry may well be thinking prices may have stalled.

I think I am on record somewhere in 2021 saying I thought XEG would never recover beyond $15. Clearly my crystal ball is foggy, if not broken, but I would not be a buyer here.


----------



## larry81

londoncalling said:


> I hope it does reach a new ATH in this bear market that would do a lot to help portfolio returns. can you clarify what you mean by "plan to sell"? Trim by X% or close the position? Is the reasoning purely from a taxation perspective or is there other factors for this decision?


I see 3 options that i will ponder during the holidays:

Sell everything and close the position
Cashout the profit (3M) and leave the initial investment (1M)
Sell everything and keep 1 XEG share at my initial buy price of 4.35
My reasoning is not about a taxation nor about the direction of the market (i believe there is more upside in oil). At >3M profit on this single trade without much up & down, i more than happy with the end result !

We've been looking for a new house for a while now and I'm planning to take a portion of the profits to buy a new house, all cash. It's purely psychological, I'm excited by the idea of living in a house paid 100% by a speculative trade and remembering it every day. The rest will be redirected to my portfolio consisting of plain boring Vanguard ETF's. Knowing myself, i will probably max the HELOC on the house to invest and dedude the interests.

This is life changing money for most people and also highlight that it takes money to make money!


----------



## londoncalling

AltaRed said:


> I can't speak for Larry but I think XEG has topped or is near its top and it is time to cash in at least the majority of the position. I am almost certain XEG will never return to its ATH back in 2014, if for no other reason than fossil fuels can no longer attract the valuation multiples it did back in the commodity supercycle that was still in full swing in 2014. It doesn't matter what the earnings/share or cash flow/share is, or whether companies will be debt free by 2024+. Investors see a glass ceiling post 2025 for oil in particular with continued acceleration of the clean energy transition and 2023 will be a headwind year for oil if there is a global recession and demand falls off ~1 million barrels per day.. Larry may well be thinking prices may have stalled.
> 
> I think I am on record somewhere in 2021 saying I thought XEG would never recover beyond $15. Clearly my crystal ball is foggy, if not broken, but I would not be a buyer here.


I have no intentions to adding to oil equities. I can't speak to the share price but I believe these companies will continue to have strong earnings in 2023. There appears to be a lot of manipulation by OPEC and the US reserve to keep a floor and ceiling under volume and price per barrel. What I can say for sure is that consumers will see high prices for the long term based on energy prices and environmental taxes. Perhaps with the new share buyback tax proposed for 2024 these companies will front load the share buybacks in 2023 and opt for more special dividends in 2024.


----------



## scorpion_ca

larry81 said:


> This is life changing money for most people and also highlight that it takes money to make money!


Would you care to share your total net worth? Just curious...10 MM?


----------



## james4beach

AltaRed said:


> I can't speak for Larry but I think XEG has topped or is near its top and it is time to cash in at least the majority of the position. I am almost certain XEG will never return to its ATH back in 2014


It's possible I'm blinded by optimism, but I like the uptrend in XEG and don't see any evidence it has ended yet. I'm still long and intend to be for a while.

From a technical standpoint, watch the previous high this year at $18.25. We're getting pretty close to that and I'd really like to see XEG close a week above the old high. It can be a really bearish technical sign if something like this fails to make a new high. So for example if XEG gets up to $18, then stalls and declines, that could mean trouble... it indicates a lack of buyer's enthusiasm.

OTOH if XEG gets above $18.25 that's very bullish, as "higher highs" is one of the hallmarks of a healthy uptrend.

I would also watch its cousin XLE down south, since they more or less move the same way. XLE is just about to make a new high, if it can rise a wee bit. XLE achieving a new high (weekly close) would be bullish for XEG.


----------



## doctrine

james4beach said:


> It's possible I'm blinded by optimism, but I like the uptrend in XEG and don't see any evidence it has ended yet. I'm still long and intend to be for a while.
> 
> From a technical standpoint, watch the previous high this year at $18.25. We're getting pretty close to that and I'd really like to see XEG close a week above the old high. It can be a really bearish technical sign if something like this fails to make a new high. So for example if XEG gets up to $18, then stalls and declines, that could mean trouble... it indicates a lack of buyer's enthusiasm.
> 
> OTOH if XEG gets above $18.25 that's very bullish, as "higher highs" is one of the hallmarks of a healthy uptrend.
> 
> I would also watch its cousin XLE down south, since they more or less move the same way. XLE is just about to make a new high, if it can rise a wee bit. XLE achieving a new high (weekly close) would be bullish for XEG.


I am on the bull train, although it wouldn't be the worst time to lighten up if one felt to inclined. I don't. I am on the record saying I felt like XEG could hit $20 this year, and that would be fair value, and there are two months left to go.

Equities are starting to outperform the commodity, which means there is increasing demand for the stocks, both from investors, and the massive share buybacks that are removing the unbelievers. Look at IMO, soaring through all time stock highs like a light sabre through butter. I'm not getting out of the space just as money starts to move back in.

This isn't the cannabis rage of 2017 when those companies couldn't stop issuing shares. Energy companies are buying back their stock at rates of 10-20% a year. There will be a shortage of paper if people try to get into this space en masse.


----------



## AltaRed

The reason I am bearish on XEG making new highs is valuation multiple calculations. The headwind is many are not willing to forecast strong cash flows into the future so discounted cash flow calculations are a headwind. At the same time, near term cash flows are very strong and thus that part of the discounted cash flow calculation has a strong tailwind impact on the valuation. It really comes down to one's belief on what happens to future cash flows, e.g. 5 years out.

Doctrine thinks the industry will be hard pressed to increase supply to meet demand, as do I, but where I differ is I also believe in demand rolling over sooner than many think due to both energy transition and weaken global GDP growth. Forecasting is a wonderful exercise with 20 people having 25 opinions.


----------



## james4beach

Interesting that XLE started today with a massive rally but failed to make a new high. I'd never read too much into a single day, but I still really want to see a new high on, ideally, both XLE and XEG


----------



## larry81

XEG.TO to 18$ soon !?

😁 😁 😁


----------



## james4beach

larry81 said:


> XEG.TO to 18$ soon !?
> 
> 😁 😁 😁


I'm not enthused by the recent price action. Still had not made a new high yet. Fingers crossed that it does.


----------



## peterk

AltaRed said:


> The reason I am bearish on XEG making new highs is valuation multiple calculations. The headwind is many are not willing to forecast strong cash flows into the future so discounted cash flow calculations are a headwind. At the same time, near term cash flows are very strong and thus that part of the discounted cash flow calculation has a strong tailwind impact on the valuation. It really comes down to one's belief on what happens to future cash flows, e.g. 5 years out.
> 
> Doctrine thinks the industry will be hard pressed to increase supply to meet demand, as do I, but where I differ is I also believe in demand rolling over sooner than many think due to both energy transition and weaken global GDP growth. Forecasting is a wonderful exercise with 20 people having 25 opinions.


I guess that's why these buybacks are a good idea, as you explained to me before. Force up that future EPS no matter what, and not just pay out dividends that "vanish" into the past.

7.3% or shares bought back so far in 2022. And a plan to slow the debt reduction a bit now that targets are hit, and increase buybacks to 75% of funds in 2023.


----------



## AltaRed

Imagine if Suncor bought back 50% of its float. You would own twice as much of the company as you do now, with twice the EPS. I like share buybacks IF they are bought back at, or below, their Enterprise Value. IOW, the company should not overpay to buy back their shares.


----------



## zinfit

londoncalling said:


> I have no intentions to adding to oil equities. I can't speak to the share price but I believe these companies will continue to have strong earnings in 2023. There appears to be a lot of manipulation by OPEC and the US reserve to keep a floor and ceiling under volume and price per barrel. What I can say for sure is that consumers will see high prices for the long term based on energy prices and environmental taxes. Perhaps with the new share buyback tax proposed for 2024 these companies will front load the share buybacks in 2023 and opt for more special dividends in 2024.


that would be one way of sidestepping this ill conceived tax.


----------



## AltaRed

It may also make companies a bit more judicious about issuing new equity. Bottom line though is this is just another tax grab.


----------

