# Best Oil Company Stock?



## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I am looking to add a Oil Company stock to my portfolio for long term in this sector.Any feedback would be appreciate.I think Oil will go up higher than it is trading today ,prefer a company who pays a dividend .

Marina


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## MikeT (Feb 16, 2010)

There's always TRP. I don't think you'd get alot of argument on it's long term track record. I've held it for 5 years or so. There are better short-term plays if you want to make a bet on oil prices going through the roof though.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

MikeT said:


> There's always TRP. I don't think you'd get alot of argument on it's long term track record.


TransCanada is oil company?
It's pipelines, gas distribution infrastructure, power generation and distribution, etc.
I don't believe they own any oil wells, drill, refine or distribute oil.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

That's right, but in that respect, IMO, ENB is a better growth stock than TRP, which had little movement in 2010, whereas ENB was up 43% [compared to 6% for TRP] + ENB recently increased their dividends to $1.96.

Oil producers, I have Suncor, Talisman, BP, PBR and doing very well with 3 out of the 4 thus far. Looking for some Canadian junior companies now. I don't think we need to look very far for oil, we have great companies right here.


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## FrugalTrader (Oct 13, 2008)

I'd be interested in seeing some of your ideas for Junior Oil plays. In terms of oil, I hold SU, COS, HSE and XOM.


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## plen (Nov 18, 2010)

How about HSE?


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## MikeT (Feb 16, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> TransCanada is oil company?


Keystone pipeline. She also said "long term" and "dividend."

Only other one in my basket is Imperial Oil.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

plen said:


> How about HSE?


Not now. It is over-priced for what it promises for the next couple of years.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

MikeT said:


> Keystone pipeline


Right, but TRP is only building and maintaining the pipeline, not drilling the oil, not refining the oil, etc.
Pipeline are, of course, their core business.
I wouldn't classify TRP as an "oil" company, in the way XOM, SU, or HSE are.


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

For the long long term Suncor might be the one. As long as the price of oil stays high enough to make the oilsands economical they have years worth of resources. Not much of a dividend though. CanNat Resources or Cenovus might fit the bill as well. 

In the medium term CPG pays a good dividend and should have at least 8 years of drilling ahead of them. 

Former trusts like Arc, Baytex, Daylight, Vermillion etc pay good dividends but have had a good run. There might not be a huge amount of cap gain left in them for the time being. But I have to admit I don't know that for sure either.

There are all kinds of juniors that are either just exploring or just starting production. High risk and high reward.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Greyhound86 said:


> For the long long term Suncor might be the one. As long as the price of oil stays high enough to make the oilsands economical they have years worth of resources. Not much of a dividend though.


The president of SU was on Lang-O-Leary show last night.
He said $75 oil is their sweet spot.
As long as oil stays around or above that level, they'll be laughing.
Given the state of the USD and the demand from emerging countries, I don't see how oil can fall below that level for any length of time.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Bonterra Energy Corp	BNE-T

I posted my reasons I like this under the "What are you watching thread". The nice dividend should ensure limited downside should oil prices drop.

(I am no expert)


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I have ENB in my portfolio ,thanks for all the feedback .I will do a bit more reading on the individual stocks you all suggested.I would also be interested to hear more on Junior stock as well.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

I'm holding COS and XOM at the moment. Thinking of adding SU and maybe Chesapeake (shale gas)


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Large integrated oils would be a good long term choice. I would buy Chevron for a US pick or Suncor for a Canadian pick. If only because of one simple metric: gas station quality. Petro Canada and Chevron stations are usually fairly high quality. Esso (ExxonMobil) stations are of medium quality. Shell and Husky stations are usually of poor quality. You can get a feel for the company just by the way it presents itself at the customer level.

I would wait for a large pullback in Chevron though.


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## Guest (Feb 18, 2011)

marina628 said:


> I am looking to add a Oil Company stock to my portfolio for long term in this sector.Any feedback would be appreciate.I think Oil will go up higher than it is trading today ,prefer a company who pays a dividend .
> 
> Marina


Well, I've made gas money for the boat on SU and COS  ... I'm watching COS with its $0.20/quarter ... was hoping for a better price this record date ... it's pretty beat up right now imo ... the oil sands are currently landlocked ... when there's easy access to markets other than the US I'm thinking COS might be worthwhile ...


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## bootsie (Aug 30, 2010)

Hedge your bet get an ETF


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## scomac (Aug 22, 2009)

Argonaut said:


> Large integrated oils would be a good long term choice. I would buy Chevron for a US pick or Suncor for a Canadian pick. * If only because of one simple metric: gas station quality*. Petro Canada and Chevron stations are usually fairly high quality. Esso (ExxonMobil) stations are of medium quality. Shell and Husky stations are usually of poor quality. You can get a feel for the company just by the way it presents itself at the customer level.


I would argue against using this metric because it is very dependant upon where you are geographically, as to how the filling stations present themselves. 

As an example, here in Ontario, one would give Husky the highest marks for gas station quality. There's a very simple reason for this: They are a relatively new entrant into this market after picking up a large number of the Sunoco and Petro Canada outlets from Suncor that was a condition of the merger. All of these stations have now been rebranded with new cosmetics and facilities. They also have taken the tact to be more competitive on price than the former versions of those stations were.

As another example, I remember from our vacation in Arizona a few years ago, that Circle K (Alimentation Couche-Tard) always had the best gas station facilities in contrast to Chevron which were dingy and in need of upgrading.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I am not an individual stock picker but the BMO Junior Oil ETF has returned 41.05% over the past six months ending January 31 and the Claymore Oil Sands ETF has returned 31.96% over the same time frame.

Equals instant diversification with relatively low fees.

That said, I prefer to invest in only broad-based, lowest fee ETF's, including XIU, XIC, XCS, and XCV. You get plenty of energy exposure within any of these ETF's.

Buy, hold, rebalance and prosper.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

scomac said:


> I would argue against using this metric because it is very dependant upon where you are geographically, as to how the filling stations present themselves.
> 
> As an example, here in Ontario, one would give Husky the highest marks for gas station quality. There's a very simple reason for this: They are a relatively new entrant into this market after picking up a large number of the Sunoco and Petro Canada outlets from Suncor that was a condition of the merger. All of these stations have now been rebranded with new cosmetics and facilities. They also have taken the tact to be more competitive on price than the former versions of those stations were.
> 
> As another example, I remember from our vacation in Arizona a few years ago, that Circle K (Alimentation Couche-Tard) always had the best gas station facilities in contrast to Chevron which were dingy and in need of upgrading.


You're right, I've never been to Ontario so I wouldn't know the conditions there. It's just another thing I try to look for besides the tangible things like quarterly reports and number crunching. Another good thing about Chevron is the yield and history of increasing it. ExxonMobil too, but the yield is lower.


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## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

Seems like Suncor is the recommended safe oil play these days whereas the middle east oil has potential political risk although I think that could be overblown. 

I've held Suncor for more than 2 years, hasn't really done much for me until the last few months.


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## celishave (May 8, 2010)

Haven't looked at the responses, but if I had just one pick I'd go with Canadian Natural Resources. They have always done what they have said they will do in terms of production and CapEx is always kept under control. Having said that I think they are abit pricey at the moment but if it pulls back to high 30's or low 40's it's a good time to acquire.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

I really like RDS.B (Royal Dutch Shell) they give out .86c dividends every quarter and they just keep pumping out profits. I also own Total SA with gives out over a buck dividend twice a year. 
I bought these both during BP downturn as they got hit for no reason.

i own HSE but sold half to buy TRP recently. Good dividend but it just doesnt do much even if all anaysts say its a great buy.

Worst pick has got to be OPC (opti) though i did buy some as a lottery ticket and maybe get some Nexen in return.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

peterk said:


> Thinking of adding SU and maybe Chesapeake (shale gas)


Just read in the Australian news that BHP Billiton has bought gas assets from Chesapeake for close to 5 billion, so likely that should make shares of CHK open higher tomorrow.


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

More unrest in Northern Africa and the Middle East over the weekend.

Oil will probably be up Tues. Appears to be up about $6 today (Monday) according to Yahoo UK site.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Greyhound86 said:


> More unrest in Northern Africa and the Middle East over the weekend.
> 
> Oil will probably be up Tues. Appears to be up about $6 today (Monday) according to Yahoo UK site.


Was just going to say this.

Anyone thats got some cash lying around could probably make some easy money tomorrow on some oil stocks.


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## twowheeled (Jan 15, 2011)

I work in Canadian oil sands industry, and I would like to point out that the number one issue with production up here is not the cost of oil, but the environmental policies that these companies are going to have to soon meet as laid out by the ERCB and the government. Of the companies up here, only suncor and shell have shown the technology and capacity to adapt their operations.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Good point twowheeled but I think the challenges the oil sands face will only make them better. It seems a lot right now, but in the end they will be more efficient and better for the environment.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

celishave said:


> Haven't looked at the responses, but if I had just one pick I'd go with Canadian Natural Resources. They have always done what they have said they will do in terms of production and CapEx is always kept under control. Having said that I think they are abit pricey at the moment but if it pulls back to high 30's or low 40's it's a good time to acquire.


http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=5845&highlight=Canadian+Natural+Resources
I bought CNQ for $41.65 last month ,was a very good decision.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Oil was going up even before the ME crisis that started in late December & so naturally prices would go higher after the Middle East contagion rattled the markets for several weeks already.

Good buy Marina, you bought when others were selling the stock! CNQ is expected to have a 71% oil production in 2011 & Suncor 89%.

As expected, CHK is up 6% in pre-trading hours, so I hope you were able to buy this before PeterK.


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## I'm Howard (Oct 13, 2010)

Bought BTE.DB for $100 sold for $355, collected 7% along the way, bought BTE.UN, long term hold, I suspect it will be taken over?


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

I'm Howard said:


> Bought BTE.DB for $100 sold for $355, collected 7% along the way, bought BTE.UN, long term hold, I suspect it will be taken over?


Nice. I hope you had 1000 units of BTE.DB.

I bought BTE for my daughters TFSA last May (only 100 shares though).

Amazing how it has gone up since then ($33 to $52). It's not like it is some junior explorer that hit a big well somewhere.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> Good buy Marina, you bought when others were selling the stock! CNQ is expected to have a 71% oil production in 2011 & Suncor 89%.
> 
> As expected, CHK is up 6% in pre-trading hours, so I hope you were able to buy this before PeterK.


That's how I live my life Money Gal , when people are running from something I am running to it lol .I picked up 3 stocks from this thread after doing some of my own research.Will post my buy prices when my TD acct updates.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> As expected, CHK is up 6% in pre-trading hours, so I hope you were able to buy this before PeterK.



HA! Yeap, that would have been nice... unfortunately I've been scared away by the recent rising prices. Who knew it would just keep flying higher and higher! At least my Exxon is doing well from all this..


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

*CPG nice run*

CPG has done well..bought some in July around $37.80. Nice divvie..I'm a lil nervous on the P/E ratio tho.
PBK hasn't done as well.
Gotta love COS


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

strange that no one is blowing the horn for crescent point. CPG is a rare high-growth + high-dividend story. Even has options.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

marina628 said:


> That's how I live my life Money Gal , when people are running from something I am running to it lol.


Marina, I'm not MoneyGal, though I don't mind the confusion at all! 

This article is for you in case you may not have read it. Don't you feel like an intelligent investor already? 

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/02/23/cnq-best-way-to-avoid-middle-east-turmoil/

*@humble pie:* you're right about CPG, I have it too and failed to mention it. In fact, I looked into this company after someone highly recommended it here; I'm not sure because it was several months ago, but it might have been you & if it was, thank you!


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I have a good excuse to mix up the names ,at the time i posted i was playing a high limit poker game which i finished 1st !I have been here 4 months learned quite a bit but enough to know we all have different circumstances and goals so what is right for one of us may not be suitable for another.I just like to bounce Ideas off you guys which is why I started the thread on CNQ .I already decided to buy when i posted but thought some opinions would not hurt.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/02/22/libya-suncor-operations.html

Interesting question raised in this article, "Which is worse, oil from the oil sands or oppressive regimes?"


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

t.gal, i've been an unabashed champion of cpg here in the forum. Ever since i spotted a tiny filler in the globe & mail more than 2 years ago that said the canadian city with the biggest increase in housing prices was weyburn saskatchewan.

weyburn ? saskatchewan ? when i checked to see what was happening in beautiful downtown weyburn, up surfaced the story that the nearby bakken fields contained the largest deposit of top-quality light sweet crude ever discovered in canada. And crescent point had bought up most of the properties & was beavering away pumping out the oil. CPG was then in the low 20s. It was still a unit trust. Oh, my.

on the gassy side & since others are posting here about gassy chesapeake, i've also championed gasfrac energy here since the 6 dollar level early last fall. GFS has doubled in 6 months. Very strong today. On any fallback i will buy more. Like crescent point, gasfrac has a fascinating history.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

I'd buy CPG, COS, HSE, XOM, CVX or SU. The latter, Suncor, is not a yield play but for capital growth.


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> strange that no one is blowing the horn for crescent point. CPG is a rare high-growth + high-dividend story. Even has options.


CPG is my biggest holding. I have had it for several years like you Humble. Will be interesting to see if their Alberta wells will produce as well as those in SE Sask have.

The story on GasFrac might be just getting more widely known. Its technology might become an industry norm.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I like CPG, as well. Although, my holding is small at only 200 shares.

The spread today was nuts.

I saw it at over a buck at one point this morning, and then it fell off the cliff with everything else related to oil


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> Ever since i spotted a tiny filler in the globe & mail more than 2 years ago that said the canadian city with the biggest increase in housing prices was weyburn saskatchewan. weyburn ? saskatchewan ? when i checked to see what was happening in beautiful downtown weyburn, up surfaced the story that the nearby bakken fields contained the largest deposit of top-quality light sweet crude ever discovered in canada. And crescent point had bought up most of the properties & was beavering away pumping out the oil. CPG was then in the low 20s. It was still a unit trust. Oh, my.


That's funny

I remember driving into SK from the States for the first time 5 yrs ago. On the US side, small oil pumps worked quietly across the green cultivated fields. The buffalo and the antelope herds grazed in peace along the road. As soon as you cross the border, it looks like WW3 struck with piles of rubble and huge cranes demolishing the landscape 24/7 as far as you can see. Spent the night in in a dilapidated hotel in Weyburn that felt like an old western movie. The effect continued in the morning as tumble weeds actually rolled down the empty streets.. I got a coffee at Timmies without waiting in line. After that I saw nothing but a town named Dog River, literally. Good find with CPG, that's the kind of stock I want to hold but don't seem to notice in time


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I bougth both CPG and PBN (PetroBakken) - both are in the Bakken and both have nice dividends. I waited until PBN reached a 1 yr low and bought in under 20. I don't understand however why PBN fails to perform as well as CPG - both are "in the same neighborhood - pumping the same oil". Why such as difference. I'm ready to sell PBN Iif it does jumo much after oil hits a 2.5 yr high - when will it?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> 1. t.gal, i've been an unabashed champion of cpg here in the forum.
> 
> 2. on the gassy side & since others are posting here about gassy chesapeake, i've also championed gasfrac energy here since the 6 dollar level early last fall. GFS has doubled in 6 months. Very strong today. On any fallback i will buy more. Like crescent point, gasfrac has a fascinating history.


1. Yes, you most certainly have.

2. LOL, you sure have a way with words. 

About GFS, reading about LPG fracturing services now, very interesting! 

What makes investing so fascinating [aside from making money], is learning and actually understanding how the various industries work, how they got started, etc.


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

dubmac said:


> I bougth both CPG and PBN (PetroBakken) - both are in the Bakken and both have nice dividends. I waited until PBN reached a 1 yr low and bought in under 20. I don't understand however why PBN fails to perform as well as CPG - both are "in the same neighborhood - pumping the same oil". Why such as difference. I'm ready to sell PBN Iif it does jumo much after oil hits a 2.5 yr high - when will it?


I have heard or read somewhere that the perceived problem with PBN is that their land in Sask is not quite the same quality as CPG's and therefore their wells decline in productivity too quickly. . I do not know whether that is true or not. 

The weather was so wet in Sask last year that all the companies had problems getting their planned drilling etc done. Therefore their production did not grow as much as hoped.

PBN was also criticized for overpaying for land in Alberta (about a year ago). The price there was high at the time but may turn out to be fine if production is good and prices stay high. 

I don't own any PBN but own a few shares of PetroBank (majorty owner of PBN).


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

thankx greyhound for the insights re petrobakken. The story goes that cpg ceo scott saxburg - who is still a fairly young man - years ago bought up literally all the good properties in the canadian bakken. Though the presence of the rich bakken shales had been known for decades, they were thought to be too deep to ever be drilled. Saxburg, then a young petroleum engineer from manitoba, believed that horizontal drilling would crack the shales, and he turned out to be right.

at this moment my short term thinking in cpg is a bit guarded. Did anyone notice that saxburg himself sold 10,000 sh a month ago. However, director paul colborne, who was chairman of tristar (that merged into petrobakken) is back buying again, picking up about 40,000 shares recently. Colborne swing trades cpg like a madman & i have never understood his trading pattern.

this am i was reading some obscure td research report that was going on about overloaded oil inventories at the Cushing storage facility ... in part because of substantial bakken production from the US bakken fields. Cushing is landlocked - in oklahoma, i believe - so drawing oil down means trucks or trains ... bref, there's just too much oil in the cushing. Libya meanwhile is said to produce only 2% of the world's oil. Surely the oil panic over developments in libya will subside & the high inventories in north america will prevail, esp now that winter is ending.

i would not sell any cpg shares even while i wonder if energy prices are headed for a breather. I might adjust a few option positions though.

ps mode can you ferry us all in your flying caboose with the luxembourgeois ensign on its tail to that dilapidated hotel in beeyooteeful downtown weyburn saskatchewan so we can throw a blistering all-weekend going-away party for you before you depart for deutscheland.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> ps mode can you ferry us all in your flying caboose with the luxembourgeois ensign to that dilapidated hotel in beeyooteeful downtown weyburn saskatchewan so we can throw a blistering all-weekend going-away party for you before you depart for deutscheland.


Haha well for a few shares of CPG I could see what I can do  I bet a Weyburn party would put Fort McMurray's scene to shame. Scotch and cigars on me


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## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

Financial Cents said:


> I'd buy CPG, COS, HSE, XOM, CVX or SU. The latter, Suncor, is not a yield play but for capital growth.


Ok so how many are buying these right now? Does the market indicate these will continue to climb for the next quarter? i own COS and its done great but i am wondering if all this oil will level off or keep climbing.
BTW I am not in it for quick money, looking for long term good div payers, just dont want to buy and them have them and have them dip...


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

Article on PetroBakken at SeekingAlpha. He thinks the share price has potential to rise this year. 

The author has written several articles on PBN and PetroBank in the past 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/255...nergy-play-with-a-4-dividend-yield-and-upside

see his blog http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

sweet...thanks Greyhound,
I just took my finger off the "sell" button on PBN...hopefully I will see 27-28 in the coming months.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

(feathers)
(steady drum beat)

hiya he he
c.p.g.
heya he he
c.p.g.
hey yah
hey yah


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*h.p @ c.p.g.*

Hahaha! you want to tone it down there, chief?

It's my third largest holding, and if it gets too high I'm going to be forced to reduce.

income is handy
life in the patch is dandy

cheers


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

cpg is my largest holding. Altogether energy is a big bulge in my port, pushing over 26% not including a small interest in uranium stocks. These days i deliberately restrain myself from buying more. In fact, the only new energy position i've put on over the past year has been gasfrac.

not planning to reduce anything until the fundamentals begin to deteriorate. One exception might be gasfrac, it may be running high prior to the march 11 earnings announcement, many companies run higher prior to earnings, esp serious newcomers w serious but elated institutional interest like gfs.

and whenever i think to sell a few cpg i ask myself where to find an equivalent dividend.

not that my opinion matters, but i'm tentatively thinking that energy will weaken somewhat as spring wears on, so i'll adjust a few short option positions, that's all. But i'll keep the stocks until aitch shows signs of freezing over.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

humble_pie said:


> and whenever i think to sell a few cpg i ask myself where to find an equivalent dividend.
> /QUOTE]
> 
> Humble...I, too, am enjoying the run that CPG is on, but don't you think the P/E ratio (somewhere around 150..probably more now) is excessively high and "red-lining"? Though I don't agree with Brian Acker's view (BNN -, he has been shorting CPG), CPG does have low earnings per share. Acker's position is that CPG can't support the 6% dividend that the stock pays each month and that at some point, the dividend will be cut, or the stock will tank...or both. Thankfully, that hasn't happened....yet, but I ask myself how safe the CPG dividend really is!


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I sold my CPG the other day. All of it.

Getting a little too high for me...

I could definitely be wrong, but I feel better locking in my gains, especially since the stock is getting a little rocky.


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## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

Big breath....just bought 1002-PBN for a short and see...


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## LOST (Aug 30, 2010)

*cpg*

Sold my cpg at high of day on friday for a 28% return,but how do I replace the monthly income?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

dubhmac i have been thinking about the points you raise and several others since the year began. The rise in energy is greater than anything i had expected. In addition there are some other recent details re cpg that i've posted about, although possibly not in this thread. There has been some insider selling, for example, although it has been mild. I also find the charts looking overbought at present.

so it's certainly tempting to trim some cpg. I would not be a buyer at these levels. Have not bought any since july 2010.

with respect to the dividend, it's coming from the cash flow and my belief is that it is secure. Co has always hedged its oil sales, so the cash flow to pay the dividends is locked in. In addition, co has just committed 800 million to exploration drilling in the alberta bakken, this does not sound like a company struggling to pay its obligations. And then there are the losses brought forward from the unit trust years. I believe these wind up in 2112.

mac have you considered a collar strategy. I don't practice these myself, but one member of this forum is quite expert at it. A collar option strategy placed upon a stock position acts to guarantee the stock price against market slippage or drop whilst dragging against potential future share price rises. In essence, a collar acts acts to guarantee a high dividend. I won't bore you with more details here, but more are to be had if necessary.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Humble...

I am still quite a novice investor - tho I am thankful for your suggestion - the procedure is one I will explore. 

Also, I should mention that I did more research into CPG - the P/E ratio is 70 (as recorded by dividendinvestor.ca) and the EPS is -0.07. Thanks for your response to my somewhat "alarmist: view on CPG...When I re-read my post I sounded like chicken-little!


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> dubhmac i have been thinking about the points you raise and several others since the year began. The rise in energy is greater than anything i had expected. In addition there are some other recent details re cpg that i've posted about, although possibly not in this thread. There has been some insider selling, for example, although it has been mild. I also find the charts looking overbought at present.


Actually the chart of CPG looks very very bullish. Last week it broke out of resistance that's capped it for 2.5 years. As long as WTI stays afloat, momentum traders will be piling into the stock in weeks/months to come. And will WTI crude stay afloat? I think it will continue this move much higher as last week it broke out of resistance that's capped it for 2 years. I'm already energy heavy but decided to start a CPG position at 47.85 today and will load up if it goes down towards 46. Definitely would not sell here. Sub 100 WTI and 45ish CPG will have traders heading for the exits. Otherwise, onwards back to 140.

Also, we're in a seasonally strong period for oil. Here is a seasonal crude oil chart spanning 17 yrs showing the Feb/March low followed by the rally into April/May. http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/cl.html

The ol' buy the February/March low of your fave oil stock and sell the April/May 10% rally is more guaranteed than a GIC! Well maybe not but it's been good to me.


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## greeny (Jan 31, 2011)

I recommend ENB for you. Its a very reliable investment for portfolio.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

gold are U saying you'd buy cpg now & sell into an april/may rally ?

but i don't trade cpg like that. In cpg i wish to hold & sell options & collect divs for years & years to come.

it's interesting how 2 people always manage to read charts so differently. You are undoubtedly a far better chart reader than the undersigned pie crust. It's all i can do to crumble along.

but i did check again after you posted & longer term my cpg charts - bollinger bands, stochs, rsi, macd - these do look overbought to me. Going out to end of this year, say.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

BMO Junior Oil Index ETF has a six month gain of 58.22% as of the end of February.

However, I don't own it---drats!!!


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

No Mr. Pie you're definitely right about the overbought indicators but I prefer support/resistance. I don't plan to buy now and sell an april/may rally. I bought 1/7th of a regular position and will pyramid into the rest depending on the price action of the stock and of wti crude. As for when to sell, I'll be holding the oils until a new wti high at least.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

1600 gold have you ever heard of a junior gold xplorer called st augustine gold. Until recently was ratel, but the company split & st augustine is the re-orged portion that kept a property in the philippines named king king. That much is fairly well established.

what's not established is whether king king contains any gold or whether it's another bre-X.

there are some remarkably highly-placed-in-finance canadians promoting this stock.

all journalists love good stories & even the pie likes to investigate a juicy trail of crumbs. Therefore am wondering if you have any morsels you'd care to dish ...


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> I'm already energy heavy but decided to start a CPG position at 47.85 today and will load up if it goes down towards 46. The ol' buy the February/March low of your fave oil stock and sell the April/May 10% rally is more guaranteed than a GIC! Well maybe not but it's been good to me.


You BOUGHT at $47.85?

Wow.

I SOLD at $47.34

But, I guess that's what makes markets work. 
I was going to sell at $48, but I did something you should never do. Yep, I got *greedy*, in which case I ended up selling 66 cents short. Which cost me a LOT of money...


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

KaeJS said:


> You BOUGHT at $47.85?
> 
> Wow.
> 
> ...


Considering where the price is today I'd say you did very well, Kae. Not many people can sell at the exact top. You were the opposite of greedy. Greedy would have been hanging on for $50 and then selling right now in a panic.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I was close to selling my CPG on Monday..then I remembered why I bought it..for the yield . The price will probably be volatile for the next while I just hope they maintain the dividend.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Since this thread was started (Feb 16th), the crude oil WTI went from $85 to $105. Once at $105, most oil stocks fell about 6 % in the past week even though the price of oil hasn't moved down. This means another 6 % on the downside if oil drops back to $85


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

och an i ken ye were a stalwart laddie mac an now ye be caterwailin on aboot the dividend again ...

i was counting on a 10-20% drop in cpg myself. So far, we're not quite halfway there.

i don't sell my shares, myself. Tis an excellent keeper for the dividend. One sells the options instead. Some of this glorious opportunity has slipped away already.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I canna help it...it's the costs ya know
(Have ye any idea 'ow moch it costs ta clean a kilt!)

very good display humble..love the accent...
me senses a Celt behind those keys...maybe tisn't humble but haggispie


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

humble's posts are an art form


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

Investors really love to punish this stock when they have a slight miss.
Even though they already told the market that due to poor weather conditions there was no growth in the 4th quarter.
Down 12% in the past few days.









Greyhound86 said:


> Article on PetroBakken at SeekingAlpha. He thinks the share price has potential to rise this year.
> 
> The author has written several articles on PBN and PetroBank in the past
> 
> ...


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

Petro Bakken - A Value Trap?

Here is another blog post I found about PetroBakken

http://divestor.com/2011/03/09/petrobakken-value-trap/


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

Thanks Greyhound...starting to have second thoughts on this one.





Greyhound86 said:


> Petro Bakken - A Value Trap?
> 
> Here is another blog post I found about PetroBakken
> 
> http://divestor.com/2011/03/09/petrobakken-value-trap/


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

A slight thread jack here, but it's still about a petroleum company kinda. I'm looking to make a purchase of BHP but I'm a bit confused about the dual listing. Both on the NYSE, BHP trades significantly higher than BBL, as a result BBL pays a higher yield. Are there any currency risk or tax differences between the two listing? From what I can read they are both the same company, just with BHP originating from the London exchange and BBL from the Australian, but from what I've seen they are both the same exact entity. Can someone explain this stock price discrepency to me? I can't seem to find any official answer for this on the internet.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I don't know, but in the last couple of years, I have always noticed a higher volume and premium of BHP than BBL, hence the reason I purchased the former.

You might find this read interesting.

http://www.uwa.edu.au/__data/assets...Godfrey,_Keith_UWA_PhD_Conference_2009_V2.pdf


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i wasn't aware of the 2 BHPs, but they remind me a bit about the days - up until about a year ago - when thomson reuters used to trade in toronto and on new york (same cusip number); plus there was a british incorporated version of the company (probably dating back decades as plain reuters) that traded in london whose shares had full voting rights & the same dividend; plus there was an ADR trading on the nasdaq that consisted of a bundle of 6 of the british shares. Altogether, 4 publicly-traded versions of TRI.

individual investors buying the nasdaq ADR would not obtain the canadian dividend tax credit. However, for pension funds & other tax-exempt funds, the naz ADR was a great deal because it traded at a discount to both london & toronto prices.

notice that discount. It would soon earn millions in a flash coup for the thomson family interests & also for one astute canadian analyst.

laura wallace is the name of the analyst whose tax exempt clients owned the naz ADR because wallace (a smart woman) believed the thomson family of toronto would, sooner or later, amalgamate the north american & the british companies, and she thought that the british version would eventually disappear, along with its naz ADR. And she thought that the discount would then disappear.

all this came to pass exactly as wallace had forecast. Just before the deciding vote of the directors, the thomson interests sold a colossal number of TRI shares on toronto (more expensive shares) & simultaneously bought the same number (less expensive shares but same co.) on london. Directors then voted to merge the british company into the north american one. Within a day or 2, arbitrageurs had battered the discount to zero. Winners: thomson family of toronto plus madame wallace & her institutional clients.

something vaguely like this is undoubtedly going on with the 2 BHP listings. Legally, it doesn't look like they are the same. Voting rights, for example, may not be identical. I for one am only sure of one thing. Which is that the arbs know all about the reasons for the discrepancy in price, and they are keeping these prices picked clean to the bone. If one BHP trades so substantially less than the other, there's a reason for it.

toronto.gal, if & when you find out the reason, could you please post it here. If you own shares already, you might even email company's IR in faraway australia, if you would have time. They probably have experience in explaining this.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> toronto.gal, if & when you find out the reason, could you please post it here. If you own shares already, you might even email company's IR in faraway australia, if you would have time. They probably have experience in explaining this.


Great idea humble; I'll write my friends Down Under and see if I can get to the bottom of LOOP.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Does anyone know why CPG has tanked in the last week, down 10 % already and dropping... The CPP Investment Board has a big chunk of this stock in their $54B portfolio


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> toronto.gal, if & when you find out the reason, could you please post it here. If you own shares already, you might even email company's IR in faraway australia, if you would have time. They probably have experience in explaining this.


As you suggested, I contacted BHP Australia & just received a prompt, albeit short answer, but not surprisingly, it only mentioned what we already knew:

*"Thank you for your email enquiry. As BHP Billiton Plc shares are traded on the London Stock Exchange and BHP Billiton Limited shares are traded on the Australian Stock Exchange, share prices are subject to variation."*

Arbitrage, currency exchange, taxes, volume, etc., don't really give a clear answer as to the average premium discrepancy of roughly 20% [$72.37 vs $86.66 for BBL/BHP respectively as of today's prices]. What is clear however, is that since I bought BHP a year ago, it has always outperformed its twin.

If you want to call them & have a chat, here is their number: 

Ph: 1300 850 505
Outside Australia: (61 3) 9415 5000


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

So, best oil stock right now?

XOM, pricy.

SU, pricy.

CPG, pricy.

CVX, pricy.

COS, decent price now @ $30. Is the dividend safe long-term???
Would this be a good long-term hold in the TFSA?

HSE seems priced right @ $28. 

Which would you own COS or HSE?


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

XOM has had a good run-up, but with a P/E of 13 I wouldn't call it pricy at all. SU and COS I find expensive lately. I would probably go with SU over COS though since they have proven to keep their costs under control better than Syncrude. The dividend for COS is not "safe" in the sense that COS's mandate is to pay out a dividend that's directly related to the profits each quarter; if the price of oil drops the dividend will be cut. I don't know much about CPG CVX and HSE


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## stawkes (Mar 10, 2011)

Any opinions on PWT? I own a little and have made a good profit, was considering buying more on this dip.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

I pulled the trigger on HSE today @ 28.65 for the TFSA.

The price just seemed too good for a company that had $3.5 billion in cash flow last year.

I wanted some oil in the TFSA, now I have it.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

@stawkes - PWT is another one I'd like to own, safe and good yield.


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Financial Cents said:


> I pulled the trigger on HSE today @ 28.65 for the TFSA.
> 
> The price just seemed too good for a company that had $3.5 billion in cash flow last year.
> 
> I wanted some oil in the TFSA, now I have it.


Thats a good price for HSE. I may buy some more HSE soon. I bought at $25.85 a few months ago, only 50 shares but they have done me well so far, $30 worth of dividends on that low a number of stocks isn't bad at all.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

Yeah, I know that stock hasn't risen much in a few years, some folks like to beat it up for that, but really, don't we want good companies to stay cheap???

Cheap for a long time?

This guy could be a $40 stock within a year and people will be writing, "geez, I wish I put money into Husky!"


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

The UN Security council just approved the no-fly zone. Oil is up $1.80 to $103.22 now in after-hours trading  I thought it was pretty fishy today that the oil stocks shot up out of nowhere


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

why does this board have such a persistent fetish for hse.

about 15 months ago hse & cpg were roughly the same price. Ranging 27-30. I said i didn't like hse's downstream refinery probs; i didn't know what management in hong kong was going to do about an interest they were said to be embracing in cnooc; and altogether i preferred a plain down-home simple saskatchewan success story.

flash forward to today & hse is 29 & change while cpg is 46.

now somebody is advancing the argument that stocks that never make it to 40 are considerably more desirable than stocks that do, apparently because stocks that never made it in the past still have at least one chance to do so. Implicit in this argument, i suppose, is the view that stocks that do succeed & hit 40 are done like dinner.

wow. Does that mean i better hope my cpg crashes back down to 30 so i can have another kick at the 40 can because otherwise i am toast & goners with my 46 stock. What an intriguing new slant on portf management.

i'll work on this but the truth is i wouldn't buy hse today & i wouldn't buy cpg today, although i'm happy to hold cpg (it has a killer dividend) (noticeably better than hse.)

today, i'd buy gas. Specifically, i'd look for emerging clean horizontal shale drilling technologies.


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> today, i'd buy gas. Specifically, i'd look for emerging clean horizontal shale drilling technologies.


I have been buying a bit of Peyto now and then lately. Low cost gas producer in Alberta.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

There's a front page article in the FP today about CPG. I also agree with the comments above that Husky Energy is a poor investment at any price.

http://www.financialpost.com/news/energy/Fracturing+shake+exploration/4459773/story.html


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

Don't know anything bout that gold company pie. All i know now is the oily sands. Avoiding the miners as their costs will rise with rising energy prices. Only have streamers/royalty types.

Topped up SU as it tested 40. Continued accumulating CPG this week and now have about half of a full position low 45s avg. Will complete the rest if it gets to 41.50ish. Bigtime support there, I'm betting it holds. WTI crude is the one to watch. Medium-term bottom is in if 97.5 low holds.

Gas is definitely a low-risk area to be in. As I mentioned in the old gas thread, Oct 25ish low was likely a multimonth bottom and it indeed held. I'm out of gas now as oil historically performs better at this time of year but Japan may be a game changer.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

@humble_pie - not that I don't want to own more oil stock(s), I just figured HSE was a good price. This company is not going anywhere anytime soon. HSE has a good yield. I also like their diversification in Asia.

You're right, CPG is an excellent stock, but pricy and not buying now. 

If HSE is not a good stock, what is the best in the oil sector?


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Here is a summary of energy ETF's:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-energy-sector-roller-coaster/article1947822/

Any thoughts?


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

I've always used CLO (Claymore) as a benchmark what I should be holding in terms of blue-chip oil & gas companies.

http://www.claymoreinvestments.ca/en/etf/fund/clo

SU and IMO, are for growth, not yield.

Any of these guys that pays a steady dividend, I'd consider. Actually, I did, I bought Husky. 

CLO holdings:

SUNCOR ENERGY INC 9.46 % 
IMPERIAL OIL LTD (I/L) IMO CN 8.65 % 
CANADIAN OIL SANDS LTD. 8.29 % 
CENOVUS ENERGY INC 7.61 % 
MEG ENERGY CORP 7.21 % 
ATHABASCA OIL SANDS CORP 7.07 % 
BLACKPEARL RESOURCES INC 6.99 % 
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LTD CNQ CN 6.70 % 
IVANHOE ENERGY INC IE CN 6.37 % 
SOUTHERN PACIFIC RESOURCE CORP COMMMON 6.12 % 
CONNACHER OIL & GAS LIMITED CLL CN 5.10 % 
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP 4.80 % 
HUSKY ENERGY INC HSE CN 3.55 % 
NEXEN, INC NXY CN 3.54 % 
PENN WEST PETROLEUM LTD 3.19 % 
PETROBANK ENERGY & RESOURCES PBG CN 2.84 % 
ENERPLUS CORP 2.52 %


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Energy stocks are up in early Asian trading out of concerns over Libya and so tomorrow should be a good day for them on the North American markets.


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## Greyhound86 (Feb 21, 2010)

Financial Cents said:


> I've always used CLO (Claymore) as a benchmark what I should be holding in terms of blue-chip oil & gas companies.
> 
> http://www.claymoreinvestments.ca/en/etf/fund/clo
> 
> ...


This ETF is an oilsands ETF. It excludes a lot of good Canadian oil companies like Arc, Bonavista, CPG, Daylight, Vermillion and so on. That is fine if the oilsands is what you are interested in investing in only.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Today CPG Crescent Point Energy is down over 2 % , no other oil company is down this much. Anyone know why ??


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*cpg*

I haven't seen any news on the company.

> volume on the day is shaping up to be just slightly above average
> oil is down a buck and a half
> CPG price is still comfortably above the 50 day moving average

... am thinking it's just some profit-taking


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i had thought (earlier posts) that we would pass through a period of weakness right about now, including energy, including cpg. As others have noted its dividend should comfort.

longer-term most analysts are calling for prices in the 50s. So i am not selling, but neither would i buy. I might buy if prices dropped into low 40 range, ie a 20% correction.

i don't know if the following observation is comforting or has any merit, but i have often noticed that cpg on a daily basis often runs against the crowd. By small amounts, & only on a very short-term basis. If one compares cpg to xeg or cnq, for example. Longer-term cpg marks or betters the trend, but short-term it seems to have a will of its own.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Petrobakken (PBN) insider trading update - maybe PBN will improve ..who knows..but an interesting article...see below.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259...ider-buying-moves-more-noteworthy-than-others

PBN's performance of late has been poor - I have been thinking of selling, but...maybe...just maybe....


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Suncor is a real dog of a stock. Oil is now at 106.74, up $2.43 and SU is up a tiny amount. I'm unloading this stock if it moves up, after only 1 month of watching it go into the sewer .


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

webber22 said:


> Suncor is a real dog of a stock. Oil is now at 106.74, up $2.43 and SU is up a tiny amount. I'm unloading this stock if it moves up, after only 1 month of watching it go into the sewer .


It's not just SU, this is the nature of integrated companies.
HSE is very similar.
Although SU has been a better performer than HSE.
If you want to mirror the performance of crude oil, don't buy integrated companies, just buy a crude oil bull ETF.

That aside, 1 mo. is not sufficient time to hold a stock like this.
Were you hoping for a quick trade?
Behemoth stocks like this are usually not suited for quick in-and-out trades, unless there is some remarkable news/earnings expected.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

SU mirrors WTI just fine. A month ago the WTI to SU ratio was at the lowest point since 2009 so it has spent this last month catching up. You just chose a bad time to start looking at it.

I own some SU but very little as I'm not a fan of the location of some of their international assets.


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## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

dubmac said:


> Petrobakken (PBN) insider trading update - maybe PBN will improve ..who knows..but an interesting article...see below.
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/259...ider-buying-moves-more-noteworthy-than-others
> 
> PBN's performance of late has been poor - I have been thinking of selling, but...maybe...just maybe....


I'm with you, hoping since I own 1252 shares of PBN...


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Betzy said:


> I'm with you, hoping since I own 1252 shares of PBN...


 me 2  already for months thinking keep or sell (and add shares to some CPG, DAY or SU)
..


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

I'm there as well. I really hope they start releasing some positive drill results so the stock can more higher. With oil well over $100.00 they have to be making a ton of cash?








Betzy said:


> I'm with you, hoping since I own 1252 shares of PBN...


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Been looking at this one for about a month. 
To tell the honest truth - I like the dividend, and I like energy companies. But I've been scared as hell to buy.

The graph looks quite choppy in the sense that the stock is down for 2 weeks, up higher for a month, down again, up higher. It looks like it has some trading potential. It seems to drop $4, go up $3, drop $4, go up $3.

The price is $18 now, which means if the trend continues, the stock should be $21 within about a months time.

Actually... I'm going to take a risk.
I will buy 100 tomorrow.
If it reaches $21, I will sell. If it drops below $17, I will also sell.
Hopefully I can grab a dividend of $8 on the way up to $21.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

^Good trade.

WTI looks very strong after this past weeks close. Beefed up energy allocation over recent weeks in anticipation. Should be a good 1-2yrs ahead.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Several oil stocks upgraded today

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/05/cnq-and-cop-upgraded-to-overweight/


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## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

So today is a bad day for Oil, crude and futures are all down, one article from TDW says it's partly to avoid a repeat of 2008. Oil was going to high...
Who decides this anyway, will it last or is it just another great time to buy in during this temporary low?


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Betzy said:


> So today is a bad day for Oil, crude and futures are all down, one article from TDW says it's partly to avoid a repeat of 2008. Oil was going to high...
> Who decides this anyway, will it last or is it just another great time to buy in during this temporary low?


Temporary low?

Futures are up right now... but barely.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

yeap, oil currently dancing between -0.3 and + 0.3, gold between + $3 and $5... Asian markets up about 0.5%. just hope that Wed will be better than Mon and Tue


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Just FYI:
Apr 12, 2011 Michael Decter of Lawrence Decter Investment Counsel :
"CPG Top Pick - -	The dominant producer in the Bakken formation in Saskatchewan. An outstanding management team. 70,000 barrels a day of light sweet crude. When they get it to 100,000 barrels a day, one of the majors might pick them off. Very good at hedging so feels the 6% yield is sustainable."


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

gibor said:


> Just FYI:
> Apr 12, 2011 Michael Decter of Lawrence Decter Investment Counsel :
> "CPG Top Pick - -	The dominant producer in the Bakken formation in Saskatchewan. An outstanding management team. 70,000 barrels a day of light sweet crude. When they get it to 100,000 barrels a day, one of the majors might pick them off. Very good at hedging so feels the 6% yield is sustainable."


If one of the majors does "pick them off", perchance, then what? I presume the price will increase? What about any dividends in these circumstances, would the new owners potentially change policy? 

Has anyone had any experience where a company's stock was purchased (merged/aquired) - what happens from the individual investors pov.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

why post bumpf from decter ... he's only about 2 years too late ... totally dated useless info.

takeover = heaven on earth for cpg shareholders.

in a takekover why would anyone care about future of the dividend. One could be taking in 60 or 70 per share in a takeout, is one going to start quibbling about continuing the divvy ? Certainly not. One might have to bank the gigantic profits (sob) & look elsewhere for divs. Oh, poor, poor one.

seriously everything would depend upon nature of the offer, one might imagine combo of shares of the acquiror plus cash, but it's way, way, way too premature to even conjecture.


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## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

So KaeJs is out of PBN, anyone else like me holding on for the bounce back to $21-22?
I have to be honest, looking at the long term chart, it's on a slow down trend all the time, what's up with this, is it bad management or what else??


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

Yup, Still holding and hoping!!



So KaeJs is out of PBN, anyone else like me holding on for the bounce back to $21-22?


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## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

According to history charts it is just about to surge a few dollars keep holding breath...


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

al42 said:


> Yup, Still holding and hoping!!


same here


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

same here..but may need SCUBA gear soon...can't hold my breath much longer


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Any opinion about Parallel Energy Trust PLT.UN? They started to trade this week, yield monthly about 8%
http://www.marketwire.com/press-rel...nitial-public-offering-tsx-plt.un-1505214.htm


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i tried but am sticking to draconian KISS principle this spring. The parallel trust prospectus is 181 pages. That's onhundredandfifty pages i'm happy to skip.

i did skim enough to tell me that principal underwriters cibc, ryl & scotia are also the principal bankers, ie the banks are unloading big debt onto private shareholders through a share issue. This is a standard IPO configuration - bank offloads debt into new publicly-traded instrument - which is often a red flag.

parallel's bravo gas holdings in texas are being acquired from conoco phillips. I for one have no idea why conoco is no longer interested in bravo & am not willing to spare the time to try to find out.

one more negative re 8% return, prospectus states this will be return on investment - ie 100% taxable which is not desirable in non-registered - plus return of capital in unspecified proportion.

one can easily obtain better in a CPG plus options combo; plus such return is highly tax-favoured, being a mixture of eligible dividends & capital gains.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Thank you for your opinion. I just read Andrew McCreath's comment on stockchase.com where he advised to check out on PLT.UN as oppose to CPG .

_obtain better in a CPG plus options combo_ I hold CPG, but never was buying any options.....not really understand it... 
BTW, could somebody recommed any good written arcticle or book for newbies explaining info about options trading?


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

http://www.amazon.ca/Trading-Option...=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1304310136&sr=1-2


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

the best little short book on options is free from the montreal exchange.

http://www.m-x.ca/f_publications_en/en.guide.options.pdf

if you don't like embedded links go to m-x.ca.
click education - guides & strategies - guides (scroll down left column) - equity options reference manual.

lots of other first-rate educational material on that website. Webinars for all levels, beginner to advanced.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

CPG touched converging support today. Horizontal support, 200 day moving average and uptrend line from '08 bottom. If there was ever a day to add or start a position...


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## FrugalTrader (Oct 13, 2008)

What's with the obsession over CPG? When I checked over their financial statements a little while back, it looked like their payout ratio was unsustainable.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

@FrugalTrader - maybe the folks at RBC know better? "With approximately half of the company’s dividend paid via the dividend re-investment program, the cash dividend is well covered based on RBC CM forecasts."

http://dir.rbcinvestments.com/pictures/account-matt.denham/cpg.pdf

I dunno about CPG. CPG dividend payments should be OK going forward but have been frozen @ $0.23 since July 2008.

Given my uncertainty and the rather high price of CPG compared to other oil and gas stocks, that's why I bought HSE earlier this year. Husky has major cash flow and they've got some major projects coming online in another 3 years that should bring in a whole boatload more cash. HSE was fairly inexpensive, close to $27 awhile back.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

FrugalTrader said:


> What's with the obsession over CPG? When I checked over their financial statements a little while back, it looked like their payout ratio was unsustainable.


I am with you on this one, they keep issuing shares to pay the dividends, in other words equity in equity out (in an over simplified way), every year there is a load of new shares hitting the market and diluting the earnings, this can't last forever.


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## FrugalTrader (Oct 13, 2008)

@FinancialCents, oh i'm certain that RBC knows more about the stock that I do but I still don't understand how having a high DRIP percentage helps. Does that mean that when DRIP investors get their extra shares, they come from issuing more shares to the market, thus diluting existing shareholders? As well, with all of their earnings going towards the dividend, how do they pay for growth? I assume issuing even more shares?


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

FrugalTrader said:


> I assume issuing even more shares?


Maybe you're right, perpetual dilution...


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Financial Cents said:


> Maybe you're right, perpetual dilution...


Following are their shares outstanding during the past 10 years.
You can see a sustained increase, with jumps in 2007 and 2009.


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## FrugalTrader (Oct 13, 2008)

Harold, where did you pull data like that? Is that via Yahoo?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

FrugalTrader said:


> Harold, where did you pull data like that? Is that via Yahoo?


MSN Finance
http://ca.moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=CPG

Then on the left nav:
Financial Results > Statements > 10-year Summary


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

this ritual fretting over cpg's dividend keeps coming up over & over again in this forum.

like most of the big energy/pipeline div payors, cpg pays divs out of cash flow.

cpg's divs are perhaps better assured than most because of the successful hedging program they've had in place since inception.

by rough measure, the increase in shares issued has kept pace with net asset growth & also with increasing oil production, particularly since 2006 when expansions occurred in all 3:

http://www.crescentpointenergy.com/operations/production.html

crescent point last had a share issue in october 2010. Funds raised - 375M - were to acquire, explore & develop a large bakken-type land package of more than one million acres in southern alberta.

company also holds substantial interests in privately-owned key suppliers such as frac drillers.

one should keep in mind that the backbone of resource development in canada is the ability to fund growth through new share issuance. Current earnings in resource sector are usually insufficient to meet substantial capital costs. Foreign companies sometimes have an IPO on toronto for the sole purpose of gaining the access to north american capital markets which canadian underwriters can deliver.

i've posted all this before. A couple months ago when cpg was hovering just under 50, i posted here that i expected a roughly 20% correction, at which point i'd think about buying more. This correction has happened throughout the energy sector. Not that my opinion matters, but i happen to believe buying opportunities will persist for several months.

there are professional cpg shorts, possibly including that ridiculous guy who started the dividend panic a few years ago. Perhaps the time has come for chronic doubters of cpg to sell their shares & leave the building.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

@HaroldCrump - You've just helped me make my decision with that data. I will not buy CPG. There are other Canadian oil stocks to own.


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## alphatrader2000 (Aug 18, 2010)

marina628 said:


> I am looking to add a Oil Company stock to my portfolio for long term in this sector.Any feedback would be appreciate.I think Oil will go up higher than it is trading today ,prefer a company who pays a dividend .
> 
> Marina


Why dont you consider buying an oil etf? Downside: the dividend might not be as much as an individual stock. Upside: you eliminate individual stock risk (example BP oil in mexico)


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

I've spend quite a bit of time going over this thread and researching Canadian oil companies this weekend. I like the long term prospects and plan to devote a portion of my portfolio as such.

I am not overly excited about any individual company - some on current price valuations like SU, some on lagging growth HSE, some on questionable metrics PWT. But I like the sector and it's long term prospects and don't want to miss out on the upside potential. I don't generally seek ETFs (as the diversification limits performance), but I think ZEO may make sense here. Buying now and adding to my position over the long term on dips.

An equal weighting of these 14 companies. I'd prefer if it had CNQ in there.

Imperial Oil Ltd. 
Canadian Oil Sands Ltd 
Enbridge Inc. 
Husky Energy Inc. 
TransCanada Corp. 
Suncor Energy Inc. 
Cenovus Energy Inc - Cdn 
Nexen Inc. 7.10%
EnCana Corporation 
Talisman Energy Inc.

Any thoughts?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

As per TDW they have CNQ:
Imperial Oil Ltd.IMO Long 8.0% +90.91% $3.0M 
Canadian Oil Sands Ltd.COS Long 8.0% +90.91% $3.0M 
Cenovus Energy, Inc.CVE Long 7.5% +90.92% $2.8M 
Penn West Petroleum Ltd.PWT Long 7.5% +90.91% $2.8M 
Suncor Energy, Inc.SU Long 7.4% +90.90% $2.7M 
Talisman Energy, Inc.TLM Long 7.3% +90.91% $2.7M 
Husky Energy, Inc.HSE Long 7.2% +90.92% $2.7M 
Encana CorpECA Long 7.0% +90.91% $2.6M 
Canadian Natural Resources, Ltd.CNQ Long 7.0% +90.92% $2.6M 
ARC Resources Ltd.ARX Long 6.7% +90.92% $2.5M 

As per BMO they have 6.47% CNQ , this why you don't see it in top 10 

It's a nice ETF, but with oil prices fluctuations, kinda scary....


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

Hmm sorry but I just don't understand your post. Are you saying TDW has an ETF with those listed companies plus CNQ? What is the ticker symbol if so? And why would owning that ETF be riskier than owning any one of the individual equities listed "given oil price fluctuations"?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Banalanal said:


> Hmm sorry but I just don't understand your post. Are you saying TDW has an ETF with those listed companies plus CNQ? What is the ticker symbol if so? And why would owning that ETF be riskier than owning any one of the individual equities listed "given oil price fluctuations"?


This is for same ETF ZEO, TWD and BMO give same 14 holdings, but % allocation is a little different. So CNQ is in this ETF (6.47% as per BMO website and 7.4% as per TDW ).
I didn't tell that ZEO is riskier than individual stock, I said that owning ZEO is risky, (and ind stock even riskier)


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

Ahh you're right, I think I had originally looked at the full list of companies as I said "14" in my original post, and then looked back at the BMO website to copy the companies for the forum, grabbing only the top 10. It does have CNQ. I'm happier.

And I now understand your comment on oil companies being risky. But it is a limited resource and one of the most important. Our abundance in it and the world's increasing demand in it, should limit that risk on a long term horizon one would think.


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

Interesting. I have been looking at SU and also FRU as an alternative. I don't know much about these royalty companies and how the risk factors compare to an ETF or an individual stock for that matter. Do you have an opinion about it, FRU I mean. It pays about 8% right now . Thanks.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Banalanal said:


> And I now understand your comment on oil companies being risky. But it is a limited resource and one of the most important. Our abundance in it and the world's increasing demand in it, should limit that risk on a long term horizon one would think.


Generally you are correct IMHO, if you invest for long term 10-15 years plus, it doesn't really matter if you buy a little high or little low... 

and about violatility ... I had recently similar ETF CLO, had a nice gain in couple of months, but I had a problem to sell it, as ETF plunged and just overpassed my stop limit sell.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

According to the Toronto Star's David Olive, oil stocks in general have not exactly been delivering high mileage to investors. And so, is this a buying opportunity?

http://www.thestar.com/article/995624--oil-industry-stocks-a-buy

What says you?


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

How the Canadian oil patch is subsidising US oil cos buying our cheap oil.
We need to build refineries or pipelines; preferrably both.
Over the last 3 years VLO is up 149%; SU +20%












> Valero Energy Corporation owns and operates refineries in the United States and Canada with a combined throughput capacity of approximately two million BPD, making it one of the nation's top refiners of petroleum products. Valero is also one of the nation's leading retail operators with retail outlets in the United States and Canada under various brand names including Diamond Shamrock, Ultramar, Valero, Beacon and Total.
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=VLO-N


This is not investment advice; I haven't done any homework on these companies.
Other companies in S&P Energy Index
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com...01301301128340003&pi_currency=&pi_param_1=256

*ADDED:*


> Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) is considering using barges and rail to move Canadian oil to the Gulf Coast as the government weighs approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, the most economic option, Valero President Joe Gorder said.
> 
> Valero could increase the amount of Canadian crude it moves by barge to its St. Charles refinery in Louisiana from Hartford, Illinois, a delivery point on an existing TransCanada Corp. (TRP) line, Gorder said. Valero also owns heated rail cars and could use them to send Canadian bitumen to Louisiana and Texas.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...il-barges-to-ship-canadian-crude-to-gulf.html


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i sold my ZEO (a very good etf) and essentially reconstituted my own with many of the same companies


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