# What is your favourite CDN growth stocks?



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

To define the question further, I'm not talking about the latest "hot" small cap that may be flash in the pan. Rather, ones that have been around for a long time, and for you, kept on giving, and giving interms of capital growth, and which may or may not pay a dividend.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I've been riding Premium Brands since they were $17...haven't sold any yet. At a CAGR at 35% I think its a pretty good "growth" stock even though I only own it as it meets my criteria for dividend growth.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Some that I hold:

CGI Group (GIB.A) with 15 year CAGR=17.23%
Descartes (DSG) with 15 year CAGR=16.50%
Boyd Group (BYD.UN) with 15 year CAGR=19.61%
Waste Connections (WCN), can't find the stats but a very strong performer


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

I would say the growth stocks (with small dividends) over the last decade, that have surprised me the most, and I own them both have been:

Canadian National Railway (CNR) with 10 year CAGR = 18.23%
Canadian Tire Corp (CTC.A) with 10 year CAGR = 13.12%

ltr


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

Doesn't the worst big 5 bank have a 30 or 40 year CAGR of 12%.

OSB did $5 to $37 in 9 years, and a few months ago would have been $5 to $50.
MX did $8 to $84 in 9 years. 

What is nice about OSB and MX is the volatility. You can often buy them at value stock prices as opposed to others that are always priced for perfection.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I'm interested in these kinds of stocks and they're the basis of my Lowdiv portfolio. Someone interested in the space may want to peek at the holdings of the Beutel Goodman Small Cap fund.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I'm interested in these kinds of stocks and they're the basis of my Lowdiv portfolio.


How many portfolios do you have? I only look at everything holistically, i.e. it is one portfolio regardless of number of accounts.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

AltaRed said:


> How many portfolios do you have? I only look at everything holistically, i.e. it is one portfolio regardless of number of accounts.


Yes, it does confuse me too. 

My guess is that James has multiple "spreadsheet portfolios" that do include a lot of his own actual portfolio stocks, but not necessarily in quantity or even actual participation.

James never seems to talk about his actual portfolio and its overall strategy.

ltr


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Are you looking at total return? Your comment about with or without dividends seems to imply you are not?

Total return is all that matters.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Another very good source are the funds listed in the MAWER New canada Fund - run by Jeff Mo. 
MTY Food Group Inc.	5.8
Enghouse Systems Limited	5.1
Boyd Group Income Fund	4.9
Altus Group Limited	4.5
Stella-Jones Inc.	4.5
NFI Group Inc.	4.4
EnerCare Inc.	4.3
Morneau Shepell Inc.	3.9
Winpak Ltd.	3.6
Solium Capital Inc.	3.5
Parkland Fuel Corporation	3.4
Stantec Inc	3.3
Richelieu Hardware Ltd	3.3


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Methanex has been one of my better holdings. Low div (2% yield), so mostly growth. I bought 1000 shares back in 2003. Took profit when it first doubled, so present holdings cost me nothing really. Here is a chart since inception:










Hit over $100 a month or so ago, but dropped back recently. Methanol is a commodity, but Methanex have market cornered, it seems.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

AltaRed said:


> How many portfolios do you have? I only look at everything holistically, i.e. it is one portfolio regardless of number of accounts.





like_to_retire said:


> Yes, it does confuse me too.
> 
> My guess is that James has multiple "spreadsheet portfolios" that do include a lot of his own actual portfolio stocks, but not necessarily in quantity or even actual participation.
> 
> James never seems to talk about his actual portfolio and its overall strategy.


And here I was thinking that I never shut up about them. Here are the threads:

My fixed income portfolio
My Canadian 5-pack
My Canadian Lowdiv portfolio
Permanent portfolio asset allocation

At the top level my investments are structured as the following (plan) which started as the permanent portfolio but has been modified to be:
20% gold
30% stocks
50% fixed income

The fixed income is invested in XBB plus the fixed income portfolio linked above. The gold is invested in a bullion ETFs plus a bit of physical.

My stocks are split between US and Canada. The US side is invested in S&P 500 index funds and BRK.B -- and that's it.

The Canadian side is mostly invested in the 5-pack portfolio linked above, plus a smaller amount in the Lowdiv portfolio linked above.


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## lonewolf :) (Sep 13, 2016)

FNV


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

james4beach said:


> The Canadian side is mostly invested in the 5-pack portfolio linked above, plus a smaller amount in the Lowdiv portfolio linked above.


To manage two distinctly different portfolio strategies winthin an overall portfolio strategy must be a nightmare without using a lot of virtual shares to make your spreadsheets work.

Why not develop a single strategy and concentrate efforts there?

ltr


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

James, this is going off-topic, but I don't get the various equity portfolios, or how they can even be managed.

I have one portfolio that: 1) stock picks Canadian blue chip equity, 2) indexes ex-Canada equity, 3) 5 year GIC/bond ladder for FI, 4) prefs in taxable account, 5) HISA reserve. I don't consider each of those portfolios in themselves.

Added: I don't own momentum stocks but have those like CTCa and CNR that are low dividend....and may be considered growth I suppose.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

AltaRed said:


> James, this is going off-topic, but I don't get the various equity portfolios, or how they can even be managed.
> 
> I have one portfolio that: 1) stock picks Canadian blue chip equity, 2) indexes ex-Canada equity, 3) 5 year GIC/bond ladder for FI, 4) prefs in taxable account, 5) HISA reserve. I don't consider each of those portfolios in themselves.


It doesn't sound like mine is too different, other than what I'm calling a "portfolio". As far as I can tell the only difference versus what you described above is that I have one additional Canadian strategy. You have a single batch of Canadian stock picks, and I have two batches of Canadian stock picks (with distinct strategies).

I separated them so that I can track them and evaluate them over time. It doesn't seem like a lot of work to me. In fact I don't think it would be a good idea to combine them into one because there are separate methodologies for the two methods. This is not about which account the stocks are in, but how I pick and manage them.

My 5-pack portfolio is quite passive and very close to XIU. My Lowdiv portfolio is much more active, risky, and uses a totally different methodology.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Fair enough. I can't logically follow 2 strategies, which could in theory contradict each other, but I won't derail the thread any longer.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

someone better call in the LTA Police, i believe i might be getting back on topic, oh the horror

going forward i don't have any fave canadian growth stocks for the future, i see mostly risky ridges ahead

looking back, onex & td have been my bestest, along with merck in the RRSP but this latter was boosted by the huge gain in USD. Commenced buying onex & the big green in the low to mid 30s. I still buy a few now & then in non-reg'd but such buying is strictly for tax purposes, the idea is to raise cost base. If i were a new investor i would not go for any of these 3 at the present time.

if i were new investor w long life ahead, i'd be holding licked thumb up in the air to see if i could catch the faintest breeze of extremely early new-cycle buying in the resource sector. Speaking of ultra-faint early breezes combined with a mention of ONEX, this company is partnering with blackRock & the CPPIB to buy the remnants of US aluminum giant alcoa.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I separated them so that I can track them and evaluate them over time. It doesn't seem like a lot of work to me. In fact I don't think it would be a good idea to combine them into one because there are separate methodologies for the two methods.



ok they are lab guinea pigs being measured in their separate cages with a distinct protocol for each cage; but does this mean each cage is an entire laboratory though


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> ok they are lab guinea pigs being measured in their separate cages with a distinct protocol for each cage; but does this mean each cage is an entire laboratory though


Right, they are guinea pigs (the 5-pack is pretty routine XIU sampling but the other one is _way_ out there). The separate "cages" for tracking and evaluation happens in a spreadsheet. The actual stocks can happily live inside the same portfolio... the guinea pigs won't bite each other. Currently I have the guinea pigs in separate cages within the same lab (TDDI).


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## 30seconds (Jan 11, 2014)

Aphria.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

SIS


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

kcowan said:


> Are you looking at total return? Your comment about with or without dividends seems to imply you are not?
> 
> Total return is all that matters.


good point. I'm talking about total return.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

The site I used to use for Total Return no longer works, but today I found this one:

https://www.canadastockchannel.com/compound-returns-calculator/

Typical output (comparing MX with TSX)


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Using Canadastockchannel calculator provides some interesting data. 

For example (since Jan 1 2004~15 years), Total returns of stocks I had on Jan 1st 2004 (Also had some etfs and MFs back then plus bonds & GICs.

TSX
with dividends reinvested XIU 7.2% XIC 7.04% 
with dividends not reinvested XIU 6.66% XIC 6.31%

BANKS
with dividends reinvested BMO 8.72% BNS 9.55% TD 12.32% NA 11.56% RY 12.03%
with dividends not reinvested BMO 6.69% BNS 8.02% TD 10.43% NA 9.42% RY 10.12% 

OTHERS
with dividends reinvested BCE 9.09% EIF 19.01% TRP 8.45% EMA 10.56% REI 10.75% MX 15.45
with dividends not reinvested BCE 7.18% EIF 13.77% TRP 7.06% EMA 8.63% REI 7.88% MX 13.67

BASEMENT
with dividends reinvested PWF 5.35% L 1.97% POW 4.65% 
with dividends not reinvested PWF 4.6% L 1.28% POW 4.0% 

What I found interesting: 
- XIU/XIC underperformed the banks, utilities and other dividend payers on a Total Return basis
- Even without re-investing dividends, the dividend payers provided excellent portfolio growth beating out XIU's Total Return (incl divs)
- EIF (Exchange Income Fund) was best performer! MX was second.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Yes, in this ultra low interest environment, dividend stocks in the TSX have done well and outperformed average. (The same does not apply to US stocks by the way).

Do you think the same outperformance will happen going forward, if rates rise significantly?


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Yes, in this ultra low interest environment, dividend stocks in the TSX have done well and outperformed average. (The same does not apply to US stocks by the way).
> 
> Do you think the same outperformance will happen going forward, if rates rise significantly?


Interest rates go up in order to slow down the economy and keep inflation in check. So yes, as interest rates increase, I expect businesses and therefore share prices to do well. 

Go back and check market performance vs interest rates last time there was an extended period of growth in interest rates. Say 1960 to 1980.


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## robfordlives (Sep 18, 2014)

I keep seeing GOOS go up but to me these will be the next Crocs. I don't see anything proprietary about a down filled jacket. Mind you I said the same thing about Lululemon


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Wow, this is a fine list of growth issues. My strategy is to have about 80% in large dividend stocks that grow dividends, and about 20% in faster growers. My theory is one only needs one or two fast growers to signficantly improve capital growth, while getting income and some growth from the others - for me, the others are mostly banks and utilities. (I used to shun banks and utilities.)

Currently my hopes for a fast grower amidst the stalwarts is GSY.T. It reports on, I believe, Nov 12, and expectations are high. It is also consolodating recently after a significant runup in price. 
P/e around 16, but recent growth has been 30% so p/e could expand.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Pluto said:


> Wow, this is a fine list of growth issues. My strategy is to have about 80% in large dividend stocks that grow dividends, and about 20% in faster growers. My theory is one only needs one or two fast growers to signficantly improve capital growth, while getting income and some growth from the others - for me, the others are mostly banks and utilities. (I used to shun banks and utilities.)
> 
> Currently my hopes for a fast grower amidst the stalwarts is GSY.T. It reports on, I believe, Nov 12, and expectations are high. It is also consolodating recently after a significant runup in price.
> P/e around 16, but recent growth has been 30% so p/e could expand.


You have to be lucky to find fast growing smaller cap stocks. Especially ones that would beat the growth of those dividend paying stalwarts I listed above.Just read a bit about GSY. Rents out furniture, offers personal loans, etc:



> goeasy Ltd. is a leading full-service provider of goods and alternative financial services that provides everyday Canadians with a chance for a better tomorrow, today. goeasy Ltd. serves its customers through two key operating divisions, easyfinancial and easyhome. easyfinancial is a non-prime consumer lender that bridges the gap between traditional financial institutions and costly payday lenders.


No idea if it will do well, but not something I would buy. By the way, I see it has taken a 12% drop today so far and is still dropping!


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
Yes it is not for everyone. Just reported revenue up 26%, EPS up 24%. Volatility is to be expected. has a high beta. To me not a big deal as it offers buying opportunites. Unconfirmed reports are that there is a CEO change, so that might have made some investor nervous. 

In the meantime I was looking into MX as a possible buy. Its debt/equity is reported to be in the range of 100 to 113. So I'm looking deeper into that. Retrun on equity is a nice 20%. Debt/equity is a concern.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

GSY is a very strong growth company. It may have gotten slightly ahead of itself. It is now trading at a trailing P/E of 10, and a forward P/E of around 8, which is low but interestingly not that far off comparables, plenty of small companies trading at very low valuations. A really good company and if it falls another 10-20% without a drop in outlook then a very strong buy.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

BAM-A is another one that keeps growing and growing. Like to get it at bear market prices, however.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I own all the companies of BAM.A - just not it.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^And I bet you are happy. 

Another CDN growth name that came to mind is CAE. I always coveted this one, but when I was looking to buy it was "too expensive". Always seems to be too expensive. that seems to suggest it is a great company.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

another one came to my attention. Open Text.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

One of these days I'm going to make a fictional portfolio out of these and see how it does going forward. Call it the "CMF off the top of our heads growth fund".

dividend stocks get a lot of air play here, so I think its time to pay some attention to the growth names.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Pluto said:


> One of these days I'm going to make a fictional portfolio out of these and see how it does going forward. Call it the "CMF off the top of our heads growth fund".
> 
> dividend stocks get a lot of air play here, so I think its time to pay some attention to the growth names.


That could be a fun exercise. Growth stocks in Canada have had some excellent returns. And some mutual funds that specialize in it (such as BG Small Caps) have done very well.

Suggestions I have, from experience: make sure you have good sector diversification in the portfolio, because it's easy to end up very heavy in one sector (e.g. tech). Also make sure you evaluate the volatility of the stock picks and don't load up too heavily on the most volatile ones, such as pharma or pot. Finally, growth stocks require more active management... you must constantly re-evaluate the portfolio and weed out the duds, find new promising ones.

This is why a portfolio of mature, dividend payers is probably easier to manage long term. They are already well established, so you can hold them more passively. But I think small cap / growth stock investment requires more active management.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

james4beach said:


> That could be a fun exercise. Growth stocks in Canada have had some excellent returns. And some mutual funds that specialize in it (such as BG Small Caps) have done very well.
> 
> Suggestions I have, from experience: make sure you have good sector diversification in the portfolio, because it's easy to end up very heavy in one sector (e.g. tech). Also make sure you evaluate the volatility of the stock picks and don't load up too heavily on the most volatile ones, such as pharma or pot. Finally, growth stocks require more active management... you must constantly re-evaluate the portfolio and weed out the duds, find new promising ones.
> 
> This is why a portfolio of mature, dividend payers is probably easier to manage long term. They are already well established, so you can hold them more passively. But I think small cap / growth stock investment requires more active management.


Good post James. I agree with what you said. I had immediately thought of your LowDiv TSX Portfolio experiment in this regard. I know you might not consider it a perfect candidate for a Growth Portfolio, but any time you get low dividends and small caps, I think "growth".

Pluto should read through that thread and see what transpired.

ltr


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

like_to_retire said:


> Good post James. I agree with what you said. I had immediately thought of your LowDiv TSX Portfolio experiment in this regard. I know you might not consider it a perfect candidate for a Growth Portfolio, but any time you get low dividends and small caps, I think "growth".
> 
> Pluto should read through that thread and see what transpired.


Thanks ltr. You're right, my Lowdiv stocks are mostly growth stocks. In that thread you can also see a link to my older thread (my first attempt at this technique) to see what mistakes I made. I'm still sticking with the method and will increase its size a bit in the December rebalance.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

WCN might rally a lot from here. It remained quite strong in 2018 even while the rest of the market sold off but had just a bit of weakness near the end of the year. I added more recently and think it still has good potential. It's also one of the top holdings of ZLB.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Attached is a list of CMF growth stock picks. Start date is Jan 30, 2019. Aproximately 10,000 of each stock to keep it equal. We can add more stocks as we go along, but not back date new additions. 
dividends are reinvested.

Should also mention that the cost basis is 249,760


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

CNR has always been one of my favorite growth stocks but always too expensive. I managed to pick some up at $98 but that is still a trailing P/E of 18 and forward P/E of 16. More of a steady eddy growth, 10-15% every year, not likely to double rail output by printing more copies but still the cheapest way to haul anything across land.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Pluto said:


> Attached is a list of CMF growth stock picks.


Neat. Yes, those are definitely growth stocks. Probably more volatile than the broad market due to the small cap slant, by the way.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^

1. yes, small cap slant. This is meant to be a off the cuff, what's your favourate growth stock list without labouring over fundamentals and diversification. At a later date we may get into thinking it through more carefully. 

2. so I got a notification to add MTY CP DOL CSU. 
Also will add CNR. will do this tomorrow. 

Remember this is an off the cuff list. Whatever pops into your mind as a growth stock to you. don't worry about valuation or timing. We may get around to worrying about that later. For now it is just for fun, and maybe education.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Pluto said:


> Attached is a list of CMF growth stock picks. Start date is Jan 30, 2019. Aproximately 10,000 of each stock to keep it equal. We can add more stocks as we go along, but not back date new additions.
> dividends are reinvested.
> 
> Should also mention that the cost basis is 249,760



this looks to be interesting, thankx! looking forward to progress plus updates

a couple details: might it be possible to include an acb column for each holding, since you mention you are planning in some cases to buy more. Possibly even to sell some, now & then. Also i feel the graphic itself should show the total cost base, 249,760 at present

another detail: is it possible to prepare a simplified version of the graphic table (could omit currency column & some other columns for example), then enlarge this version & post it as a public picture for all to see, whether cmf members or not. It's a good list, could become a good teaching modality.

last Q: i'm not sure whether these were all Pluto's own personal picks or whether the individual stocks are some from Pluto & some from other cmffers popping OTTOTHGS? anyhow nice picks, nice job here.


.


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## Butter (Nov 26, 2017)

Has no one mentioned Weed stocks yet?

I'd gamble on a small one... 1/10 chance of making it big


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Perhaps weed stocks are speculative rather than 'classical' growth definition? Growth stocks typically have a multi-year trend chart.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> this looks to be interesting, thankx! looking forward to progress plus updates
> 
> a couple details: might it be possible to include an acb column for each holding, since you mention you are planning in some cases to buy more. Possibly even to sell some, now & then. Also i feel the graphic itself should show the total cost base, 249,760 at present
> 
> ...


The ACB is the "cost basis" column. I'm trying to figure a way to make the graphic higher resolution. 
These were not all my picks. Mostly they are from posters to the thread.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Butter said:


> Has no one mentioned Weed stocks yet?
> 
> I'd gamble on a small one... 1/10 chance of making it big


APHA is in the list. didn't get any other suggestions in this space.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)




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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

I think that pgn is better resolution, but you have to click on it to get larger version.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

About time for an update on the CMF off the cuff Growth fund.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

If you are logged in and click you should get a larger readable image. Interesting that the Boyd Group Income fund is the top performer by a large margin so far.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

ok this update must cover a recent period only, is that why its variations up or down are relatively weak? overall performance is lacklustre which is characteristic of NA markets in general in recent weeks

if the time frame for the update is short, the recent ascent of Boyd into the top performance slot would be less meaningful, more of an accident imho

when it comes to frivolity in stock picking, the CMF OTC fundlist is not far from random walk theory, aka dartboard investing, no? i feel constrained to add that this approach might be disastrous in a serious downward market correction




Pluto said:


> Remember this is an off the cuff list. Whatever pops into your mind as a growth stock to you. don't worry about valuation or timing. We may get around to worrying about that later. For now it is just for fun, and maybe education.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^ 
this "fund" commenced Jan 30, 2019. It has gained 7.07% 
XIU gained 5.9% since Jan 30. Both are set to reinvest dividends. 

Reportedly, Boyd is the top performing stock on the TSX over the last 10 years with a 50% annual rate of return. 

By the way, if anyone has any new ideas they can be added, but something would have to be sold to accomodate the new.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Pluto said:


> Reportedly, Boyd is the top performing stock on the TSX over the last 10 years with a 50% annual rate of return.


flabbergasting each:


returns for the OTC stocks do suggest the short time period mentioned above, ie less than 6 months. I'm sticking to my knitting, market correction or worse & these OTC confections will crumble faster than the senior/more defensives


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
It could be that the off the cuff stocks will crumble. That's part of the purpose - just to see what will happen vs other stocks. My guess is that many will snap back from a correction. Too, I'm guessing that given enough time, the top performers will carry the day and will over come the losses of the worst performers. Top performers can couble, triple, whatever. But the worst that can happen with the non-performers is go to zero. 

I'm not surprised that the pot stock, initially a rocket, went puff the magic dragon.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Pluto said:


> I'm not surprised that the pot stock, initially a rocket, went puff the magic dragon.


....luv that line. nice. (I remember Puff, it's a 1970's thing).

I also read in the G&M ROB that water ETF's, like the following list, and CWW, have gained 20% or so since the start of 2019 - but I don't invest in them. more a spectator in this space because, like gold, I don't know how they work.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

dubmac said:


> ....luv that line. nice. (I remember Puff, it's a 1970's thing).
> 
> I also read in the G&M ROB that water ETF's, like the following list, and CWW, have gained 20% or so since the start of 2019 - but I don't invest in them. more a spectator in this space because, like gold, I don't know how they work.


the water etf is good to know about. Is there a cdn water stock in there that could be included in the cdn growth portfolio?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

AQN is the only Cdn holding I know of in CWW. CWW has been getting press because if is defensive in nature.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

An update of our communal growth stock portfolio. If you are logged in and click on the pic, you should get a larger readable version.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^So far, our heads are above water and most are showing some green. 

If this portfolio were to be activly managed by CMF, what changes, if any could be made to enhance its performance?


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I would adjust the returns to reflect dividends...but thanks for putting it up there!


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

Pluto said:


> To define the question further, I'm not talking about the latest "hot" small cap that may be flash in the pan. Rather, ones that have been around for a long time, and for you, kept on giving, and giving in terms of capital growth, and which may or may not pay a dividend.


One that I own, a mid cap, that I don't see mentioned too often is TFI International (TFII.TO). A trucking company located in Montreal.

It pays a low dividend of about 2.4%.

It's been chugging along (with volatility) for a long time. It use to be TransForce before they changed the name in 2016 to reflect their international flavour they had taken on over time in USA and Mexico.

Does anyone else own this?

I would say its done a good job against the TSX 60 index as shown in the 10 year graph below.









ltr


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Eder said:


> I would adjust the returns to reflect dividends...but thanks for putting it up there!


Dividends are included. They are reinvested.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

like_to_retire said:


> One that I own, a mid cap, that I don't see mentioned too often is TFI International (TFII.TO). A trucking company located in Montreal.
> 
> It pays a low dividend of about 2.4%.
> 
> ...


I'll add it. thanks. We need to keep adding what has been missed.


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## Benting (Dec 21, 2016)

TD, my very first stock I bought in 1996. Have been adding more ever since.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

here is an update on the favourite CDN growth stocks portfolio.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

for comparison purposes here is xiu performance:


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

A new addition was TFI recommended by LTR.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

The index - XIU - is only lagging by a small margin, so very competitive so far. 
Among the losers signified by the red there could be some bargain growth stocks.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Anyone started a discussion about USD growth stocks? I started screening USD stocks and there's a huge selection of awesome stocks. Just to name one, look at ROST, which is easily competing the famous AAPL tech stock.

I think I'll convert more money to USD and buy many of them currently on my watchlist. Hyper-growth stocks with 10+ years of history are limited on CDN, while USD have a great selection of 20+ years hyper-growth stocks.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Yes, a US growth stock thread is a good idea. Now that you have planted the idea in my head I may track some US stocks in a different thread. ...If you start the thread, I'll track and post their performance in the portfolio.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Pluto said:


> A new addition was TFI recommended by LTR.


What about LULU?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

good one. yes how could we have overlooked lulu?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Update to CDN growth:


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

These are some amazing returns recently!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Pluto said:


> Update to CDN growth: ...


 ... I didn't know that RPI.UN was considered a growth (explosive too) stock. Interesting list.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
Yup. Despite the losers in the list, the winners more than make up for it. Plus it is a list where we did no agonizing over fundamentals and so on. Just what ever popped into our heads. there is enough knowledge of stocks on this forum to run a hedge fund. LOL. 

If you have any other stocks that come to mind we can add it to the list.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ How about BOS (aka AirBoss) or is that too small?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Yes, it has been around for over 20 years, so that's good. I'll add it.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Pluto said:


> An update of our communal growth stock portfolio. If you are logged in and click on the pic, you should get a larger readable version.


Can you help me understand this output?

How realistically does this simulate a stock portfolio? When you add a stock, does this calculator retroactively calculate what your return would have been if you owned the stock the whole time? Or does it consider the new addition (or deletion) as a trade, meaning that the new addition's performance only has an impact _going forward_?

Or to put this another way. Let's say you have the existing portfolio and then add a new stock like SHOP which has had insane performance. Does that immediately change all the performance numbers? In a real portfolio, this would have no effect because SHOP was not owned in the past.

Just going to brag for a moment that all the stocks I mentioned at the start of this thread, about 2 years ago, have outperformed the TSX


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
This portfolio commenced January 30, 2019. None of the originals were backdated in anyway. 
With more recent additions, they can be back dated to the original date, or added the date they were first posted whichever one prefers. I guess I should add them on the date they were posted to keep it realistic.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

At any rate it shows how much alpha a group of random stock pickers can generate. Relieving all parameters and constraints is the key.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Eder said:


> At any rate it shows how much alpha a group of random stock pickers can generate. Relieving all parameters and constraints is the key.


I'm not sure that's what it demonstrates. It could be that in this particular time period (2 years) that growth stocks are simply doing much better than the broad index. That may not extend to longer time horizons.

Take a look at XCG, the iShares Canadian Growth ETF. For about 3 years now, it's done much better than the broad index. Here's a 2 year chart to match the timeline of our thread:










XCG is doing very well over the last couple of years.

I never noticed this ETF before but now that I look at its holdings, it looks a lot like all my stock picks (both my 5 pack + growth picks). It seems to really duplicate all the stock picking I've been doing.

So I'm not sure the stock-picking is the real magic, but rather that we happen to be in a good period for growth stocks.

Now consider the period Jan 2007 - Jan 2014, a very long stretch (7 years). Here, XCG *underperformed* the TSX Composite by quite a bit. I also suspect that growth stock picks would have underperformed in that period.

So just because growth stocks have been having a good 3 or 4 years doesn't mean that growth stocks, or stock-picking like this, will always give outperformance vs XIC.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

This list was for hot growth stocks not buy & hold. I would suggest an annual list be compiled to be effective or at least update the list annually...something like the big banks release their "Best ideas" every year.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

Eder said:


> This list was for hot growth stocks not buy & hold. I would suggest an annual list be compiled to be effective or at least update the list annually...something like the big banks release their "Best ideas" every year.


Ahhhh, OK, who knew !

My original take on this thread was for Canadian Growth stocks that were long term holds with low dividends (I use my own criterion of less than 2% dividend to define growth versus dividend stock in my portfolio).

This makes sense to me now when I see entries like Methonex and others that I consider traders (and of course it's at the bottom of the list). If this is for traders only, I would retract my suggestions that are really long term, low dividend, holds.

ltr


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Well I'll let Pluto set the parameters or confirm them but many of these stocks need some close monitoring.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Eder said:


> Well I'll let Pluto set the parameters or confirm them but many of these stocks need some close monitoring.


I included everything that was suggested. Some didn't fit the parameters but I included them anyway for a learning experience.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Pluto said:


> I included everything that was suggested. Some didn't fit the parameters but I included them anyway for a learning experience.


I don't get that XCG unperformed during any period since inception.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

One issue that has arisen is, what is a growth stock? vs some other kind of stock. Often articles use the phrase "growth stock" in contrast to "value stock" as if a value stock can't have growth, and a growth stock can't have value. I don't get it. But I use the phrase "growth stock" as well. I suppose what I mean by it is a stock that is growing (in total return terms) at higher than average rate over many years.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

Pluto said:


> One issue that has arisen is, what is a growth stock? vs some other kind of stock. Often articles use the phrase "growth stock" in contrast to "value stock" as if a value stock can't have growth, and a growth stock can't have value. I don't get it. But I use the phrase "growth stock" as well. I suppose what I mean by it is a stock that is growing (in total return terms) at higher than average rate over many years.


My definition is very close to Investopedia as shown below:

*What Is a Growth Stock?*
_A growth stock is any share in a company that is anticipated to grow at a rate significantly above the average growth for the market. These stocks generally do not pay dividends. This is because the issuers of growth stocks are usually companies that want to reinvest any earnings they accrue in order to accelerate growth in the short term. When investors invest in growth stocks, they anticipate that they will earn money through capital gains when they eventually sell their shares in the future.

*__*_
The 'value' trait doesn't come into my definition. In my own spreadsheet I tend to see any stock that pays below about 2% dividend as a growth stock. I am expecting the share price to provide a higher return than a stock that has a 5% dividend. Total return is what's important though.

ltr


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

like_to_retire said:


> My definition is very close to Investopedia as shown below:
> 
> *What Is a Growth Stock?*
> _A growth stock is any share in a company that is anticipated to grow at a rate significantly above the average growth for the market. These stocks generally do not pay dividends. This is because the issuers of growth stocks are usually companies that want to reinvest any earnings they accrue in order to accelerate growth in the short term. When investors invest in growth stocks, they anticipate that they will earn money through capital gains when they eventually sell their shares in the future.
> ...


Well what if the stock that pays less than 2% dividend isn't growing? What if it's eps growth is zero?


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

Pluto said:


> Well what if the stock that pays less than 2% dividend isn't growing? What if it's eps growth is zero?


Dump it.

ltr


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
OK so your criteria for a growth stock is more than just > 2% dividend. It seems you have additional criteria.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

Pluto said:


> ^
> OK so your criteria for a growth stock is more than just > 2% dividend. It seems you have additional criteria.


Nope, I don't really have any other criteria to determine if it's a growth stock or not. Once I've established it's a growth stock, then it might be a growth stock that's doing well or a growth stock that doing poorly. Doesn't change what it is, it just tells me when to buy or sell a growth stock. That is the same with any type of stock, growth or dividend.

ltr


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Pluto said:


> I don't get that XCG unperformed during any period since inception.


The TSX index has a hefty amount of dividends whereas growth stocks do not, so in your chart, the XCG line is probably accurate but the TSX line is not. Based on what I see at stockcharts, which is usually very reliable for this kind of thing, in the period Jan 2007 - Jan 2014, the cumulative increase of XCG in that period was 16% whereas XIC increased 23%.

Now that I look at it again, yeah, it's not much of a difference in performance even in that "bad" period.

XCG has done amazingly well ever since it started trading. This has recently made me wonder if I'm wasting time and energy with my stock-picking. Maybe I should replace my individual growth stock portfolio with XCG.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

james4beach said:


> The TSX index has a hefty amount of dividends whereas growth stocks do not, so in your chart, the XCG line is probably accurate but the TSX line is not. Based on what I see at stockcharts, which is usually very reliable for this kind of thing, in the period Jan 2007 - Jan 2014, the cumulative increase of XCG in that period was 16% whereas XIC increased 23%.
> 
> Now that I look at it again, yeah, it's not much of a difference in performance even in that "bad" period.
> 
> XCG has done amazingly well ever since it started trading. This has recently made me wonder if I'm wasting time and energy with my stock-picking. Maybe I should replace my individual growth stock portfolio with XCG.


James, of course you're correct in that you must compare apples to apples, so it's a requirement to chart Total Return as you say. In that regard, XCG is fairly close to the index (XIC.TO) as you can see by the attached chart.

If I look at total return of XCG or XIC for the period starting when I switched from ETF's to individual stocks in 2011, I have easily beat both these ETF's in total return. I about 55% higher return over that period. With individual stocks and trying to beat the index, it's not suppose to be a blow out - it's a slow methodical gain each year in the 5%-10% range that builds and builds over time. That's how you beat the index.

This is exactly what I see from all the various schemes you have followed over the years and can't imagine why you would want to switch to an ETF and accept index returns when yours are so much higher?










ltr


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

It's actually pretty sad for a so-called "growth" ETF to underperform the market.

Based on Portfolio Visualizer XCG.TO average 10-year rolling return is 4.91%, with a max of 6.49% and a min of 2.94%, while XIC.TO has an average of 5.89%, with a max of 7.79% and a min of 4.45%. Moreover, XCG.TO has 0.55% MER compared to 0.06% for XIC.TO...



Pluto said:


> One issue that has arisen is, what is a growth stock? vs some other kind of stock. Often articles use the phrase "growth stock" in contrast to "value stock" as if a value stock can't have growth, and a growth stock can't have value. I don't get it. But I use the phrase "growth stock" as well. I suppose what I mean by it is a stock that is growing (in total return terms) at higher than average rate over many years.


I also find the categorisation pretty confusing. In both cases, the goal is obviously to grow profits from the investment. This sums it up : Growth vs. value investing? Perhaps you should consider both approaches

In a few words :

"Growth" is a high-priced stock currently thriving because investors are expecting expansion and increasing earnings
"Value" is a low-priced stock which are expected to bounce back once investors recognise its value


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

like_to_retire said:


> James, of course you're correct in that you must compare apples to apples, so it's a requirement to chart Total Return as you say. In that regard, XCG is fairly close to the index (XIC.TO) as you can see by the attached chart.


That's pretty interesting, thanks for posting. You're right. For that long time period, XCG doesn't look very different from XIC.



like_to_retire said:


> ... from all the various schemes you have followed over the years and can't imagine why you would want to switch to an ETF and accept index returns when yours are so much higher?


It's true that my various schemes are beating the TSX. At the moment, I still like both my 5-pack and growth stock picks and both are outperforming.

Just because they've done well in the last few years (maybe 3 or 4 years) doesn't necessarily mean they will beat the TSX in the long term. This is what I worry about. I'm not convinced that my outperformance will persist long term.

4 years isn't much of a track record yet AND we've been in a market that's generally been rising this whole time. I do actually feel a bit more confident now that my stock picks have done well through the 2020 crash, but it still wasn't much of a crash. And it certainly isn't a bear market.

This is, so far, a pretty easy market to invest in. But what happens once we have a real bear market, with severe declines and multiple years of losses?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

like_to_retire said:


> Nope, I don't really have any other criteria to determine if it's a growth stock or not. Once I've established it's a growth stock, then it might be a growth stock that's doing well or a growth stock that doing poorly. Doesn't change what it is, it just tells me when to buy or sell a growth stock. That is the same with any type of stock, growth or dividend.
> 
> ltr


If your only criteria is div < 2%, then as long as that parameter is met, its doing well. Is that what you are saying?


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

Pluto said:


> If your only criteria is div < 2%, then as long as that parameter is met, its doing well. Is that what you are saying?


No, I'm saying I categorize stocks into two '_types' - _Growth or Dividend. 

Their '_performance' isn't _considered in that determination.

I'm honestly having trouble understanding what your confusion is, unless you're just messing with me for some reason?

ltr


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

like_to_retire said:


> No, I'm saying I categorize stocks into two '_types' - _Growth or Dividend.
> 
> Their '_performance' isn't _considered in that determination.
> 
> ...


No, I'm not messing with you. 
I'm trying to clarify what you are talking about. 
So far, I have if a stock pays < 2% dividend it is automatically a growth stock for you. You don't use any other criteria to determine growth, just div < 2%. So I don't get it.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Update:


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

You can't do better than the index silly.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

20% CAGR on the long term? That's my goal.

Or maybe I just missed the best decade of the last 50 years.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> 20% CAGR on the long term? That's my goal.
> 
> Or maybe I just missed the best decade of the last 50 years.


Nope, there will be more best decades. 
Even in bad decades, there are growth stocks. 
You only need one or two good growth stocks in a life time, said Lynch. That doesn't mean you only buy one or two, it means you buy a bunch and out of that bunch if one or two are really good, then mission accomplished. 

My formula, in essence is, 
1. Above average eps growth over say, 10 years. 
2. a] Above average ROE. b] medium to low debt. 

3. Stable expanding industry. No boom and bust mining oil type stuff. Look at CAE over the decades, for example. WOW. 
4. Credible management and corporate culture. 

20% CAGR is doable. Even if one got 15% its nothing to cry about.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Goeasy is my go-to growth stock. Some of the easiest money I ever make on pullbacks. A little high priced now and I sold my position but made 100%+ in 6 months.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

doctrine said:


> Goeasy is my go-to growth stock. Some of the easiest money I ever make on pullbacks. A little high priced now and I sold my position but made 100%+ in 6 months.


I agree, GSY definitely bounced back pretty quickly. There's also DOO which I didn't expect but it dropped -70% in a month and then 4 months later it was back to all-time highs, but it dropped recently. Very high beta (3.33).


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

I don't trade much anymore but I did sell HDI. The story seems to be earnings got a boost from the lockdowns - People having cash pile up and redoing the dining room with hardwood or something like that. So I figured I'd take the money and run, and maybe buy it back later. 

Hung on to GSY however. PEG is still less than 1. I figure if the PEG gets up to the 1.5 - 2 range, I may trim. Otherwise, its a keeper.


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