# Netflix (NFLX)



## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

While working got email from my wife (she never invested in her life): "Check out Netflix company. Looks like it is going to go up" 

What do you think about NFLX?


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Interesting. I've been watch NFLX for a few months now, but I've never had the guts to pull the trigger. Even at those growth projections, the price seems overvalued.

I wonder if there are other anecdotes out there of people who don't normally invest who talk about a high-growth company such as Netflix.
Could this then mean that Netflix has already reached it's zenith?


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

They have to convince ISP to soften the bandwidth cap.

At least in Canada, when a viewer is capped at 25GB / month for internet.. that person will quickly abandon Netflix.

The other thing they need to do is to add New Release with premium fee soon... Not too many people will want to watch old movies all the time... like Matrix and Star Wars again and again. After the initial novelty, the subscriber will likely cancel.

The idea is great... maybe there is more growth, but there are lots of risks.

And by the way, Google just entered a similar movie rental business with YouTube... so who will win? I don't know. Will it be worthwhile to hold Netflix while Google may crush them? It's a risk you have to feel comfortable with.

For more discussion for this specific stock, you may see:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/NFLX


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I have netflix. It sucks. But its only $8/month.

Not worth buying the stock when its hardly worth buying the service.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

MoreMiles said:


> They have to convince ISP to soften the bandwidth cap.
> 
> At least in Canada, when a viewer is capped at 25GB / month for internet.. that person will quickly abandon Netflix.
> 
> ...


What do you mean in Canada 25GB?! I live in Mississauga, have Rogers and 95GB cap.
The problem is not old movies, but even the newest one people download for free from rapidshere, hotfile etc


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

KaeJS said:


> I have netflix. It sucks. But its only $8/month.
> 
> Not worth buying the stock when its hardly worth buying the service.


Not a valid reason! I don't have Bell, but hold BCE stock.. same with AAPL and majorty of other companies


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

gibor said:


> What do you mean in Canada 25GB?! I live in Mississauga, have Rogers and 95GB cap.
> The problem is not old movies, but even the newest one people download for free from rapidshere, hotfile etc


If you are on Rogers Lite package, it's 3Mbps and 15GB cap. Already $35.95 + taxes... Many families do not spend more than $40 per month on the internet alone... because there is also phone, cable TV, cellphone, alarm service, etc. These technology services add up over $200 easily per month!

If CRTC allows usage based billing, which resale ISPs try to stop.. then it would be very detrimental to Netflix and similar services in Canada.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

gibor said:


> What do you mean in Canada 25GB?! I live in Mississauga, have Rogers and 95GB cap.
> The problem is not old movies, *but even the newest one people download for free from rapidshere, hotfile etc*


 

We are talking about regular law-abiding people... and not teenagers doing p2p.
Do you think a regular stable income-earning family with good job and reputation will go for illegal p2p downloads?

If you want to talk about stealing, then you can also talk about people taking TTC with fake tokens, sending mails with insufficient stamps.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

MoreMiles said:


> We are talking about regular law-abiding people... and not teenagers doing Do you think a regular stable income-earning family with good job and reputation will go for illegal p2p downloads?
> 
> If you want to talk about stealing, then you can also talk about people taking TTC with fake tokens, sending mails with insufficient stamps.


First of all I was talking about people who has normal stable income-earning families who has dowload/upload quote 95GB, and not 25GB like teenagers.
Secondly, in Canada downloading in not illegal (as per court desicion), illegal - uploading. 
And movies I want to watch, not on Netflix anyway...


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## Echo (Apr 1, 2011)

@gibor
That's funny, I had a similar conversation with someone in my family who is into genealogy. She knows I'm into investing, etc and was telling me that I should buy shares in Ancestry.Com (ACOM). 

I kind of laughed at the time, but I just looked it up and this stock is up 38% YTD and 114% over the last 12 months.

Still, I wouldn't touch that one or Netflix...they don't really fit in with my strategy.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

@Echo, I'm extremely "lucky", so if I buy - it will go down and if not - will go up


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

gibor said:


> @Echo, I'm extremely "lucky", so if I buy - it will go down and if not - will go up


Can you tell me when you buy?

I do want to take a small position just cuz i can see this going to the moon.
It has such a low float of shares, i feel a 5:1 split will be coming soon if the rise continues.

But its just so ugly to buy right now because its rise is so great.
I will have to look at the numbers beofre i buy or be willing to sell for a loss if something happens.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Netflix has a PE Ratio of 67.99....

No mas!


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## Guest (May 19, 2011)

*Here's the thing ...*



gibor said:


> While working got email from my wife (she never invested in her life): "Check out Netflix company. Looks like it is going to go up" What do you think about NFLX?


Netflix provides movies over internet ... internet provided by say Rogers ... Rogers also provides movies via cable ... Rogers internet usage http://www.rogers.com/web/link/hispeedBrowseFlowDefaultPlans ... hmmm ... seems to me netflix has a problem.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

i got netflix at home and i think its great. but i also like old movies.
I do it over the net and have seen no impact on my data usage. It says 0gb per month with telus.

I took a look at the Financials and even thought the company is gaining ground. When i run my macro, I get a BIG SELL right now.

It would be an emotional buy right now but even though i want to jump on the train, I think im going to pass cuz i think its going to be a train wreck.

I have no idea how to price these internet stocks.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Those who have followed the CRTC hearings here on usage based billing (now renamed to AVP (aggregated volume pricing)) may have noticed that Netflix tried to lobby Industry Canada but our telcos back-door deals have been more lucrative.

Because of our stageplay regulators, ISPs have come to control media empires through their subsidiares (Bell Media, Quebecor, Rogers Media, etc) and have a strong interest in keeping net services like Netflix from succeeding and stealing their revenue

Down south the FCC has a revolving door much like the SEC, one of the commissioners that approved the Comcast-NBC merger, Meredith Attwell Baker, has now quit & gone to work for Comcast. Her "unbiased" decision has paid off.

Good luck to Netflix longs, I prefer not to play Russian roulette


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

gibor said:


> Not a valid reason! I don't have Bell, but hold BCE stock.. same with AAPL and majorty of other companies


Not a valid reason.._right now_

Just wait until the quarterly reports start slipping because everyone is cancelling their subscription because:

A) Selection sucks
B) They've watched everything in the garbage selection


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Not a freakin' chance. If I had the cahones to short this would be the one stock I'd be shorting.


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## Sniper33 (Oct 25, 2011)

*Nflx*

Dropped over 27% during after hours trading.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/story/2011-10-24/netflix-loses-subscribers/50895290/1

I think it will continue to drop when market opens tomorrow. Will be a good time to buy.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I think their lack of proprietary programs will continue to sink them. The mail order business was unique enough to supply a moat but streaming is not.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I like this business more than, say, Groupon. That I think is going to zero.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Apparently all NFLX share buybacks were buybacks of shares Reed Hastings (CEO) sold. Corruption ahoy.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

May 25th


peterk said:


> Not a freakin' chance. If I had the cahones to short this would be the one stock I'd be shorting.


 Alas... No Cahones...


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

andrewf said:


> I like this business more than, say, Groupon. That I think is going to zero.


These companies seem like dot com bubble types. Overpriced and dying.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Netflix has value, but probably not the astronomical valuation applied to it. It certainly made some strategic errors in securing content. Groupon's business model doesn't seem sustainable.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

peterk said:


> Alas... No Cahones...


No balls, eh? 

No *cojones.*


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## v_tofu (Apr 16, 2009)

I feel sorry for those that bought at the top


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

v_tofu said:


> I feel sorry for those that bought at the top


i would not feel too sorry. People that buy at the top usually just buy to ride the wave but have tight stop losses.

i read about this in the national post today.
They said they lost 800,000 customers last quarter.

Where are those customers going?

I still love netflix at home and think i might buy in at the low tomorrow. Ill have to check the numbers again.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

I was a subscriber for one month and got enough usage out of it to see all the movies I wanted. I guess the puts I bought yesterday paid me back for that one month.

As for the future outlook: it's a tough business when its biggest competitor is free, with a much wider selection. Internet piracy. iTunes has managed to thrive despite easy free music access, but that certainly isn't the only piece of Apple's pie.

Thank you CEO Reed Hastings for making me some money. Qwikster!


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I like Netflix as a service, but couldn't buy a stock like this with no dividend and P/E still at 17-18 even after losing so much. 60 was just ridiculous.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> No balls, eh?
> 
> No *cojones.*


You're a good friend, ma soeur. That means sister in French. I don't know why I know that; I took four years of Spanish!


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## Rommel (Nov 1, 2010)

MoreMiles said:


> We are talking about regular law-abiding people... and not teenagers doing p2p.
> Do you think a regular stable income-earning family with good job and reputation will go for illegal p2p downloads?
> 
> If you want to talk about stealing, then you can also talk about people taking TTC with fake tokens, sending mails with insufficient stamps.


Downloading movies is not stealing, it is copyright infringement. I do not condone it but there is a difference 

I think Netflix's mistakes are only starting to come to light and that investors might be in for a long downward spiral. It's time they innovate or face investor backlash haha.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/l...N2MtYjBmNS1mOWM3ODY5OTZiM2Q=&start=24&end=230


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## Abha (Jun 26, 2011)

2011 Netflix = 2001 Blockbuster

It's starting to look like it's only downhill from here.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I have to laugh when you hear about some content being lost from Netflix..does anyone think they're going to make money offering $10 individual downloads with someone else? The only reason Netflix makes any money at all is the low price - anything higher and people will rush to the Bay... the Pirate bay that is. 

The movie industry is on the cusp of losing all control. Just like the music industry in 1997, when people realized they could download a song in under 5 minutes for free. You can download a 2 hour movie in less than 5 minutes now. People want to pay a reasonable price, but $8.99 for a single VOD on Rogers is _insanity_.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

^ Agreed. People might be willing to pay 50 cents for a tv show and maybe $2-4 for a movie. Allow targeted ads (a la Youtube) and you could reduce the cost even more. The rates being asked for on the a la carte video sites is just begging for piracy.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

The movie kiosks popping up at Metro and Wal-Mart charge $1 or $2 for a movie. IMO, that's the right price to charge for a movie download. Movie makers seem to be making the same mistakes the music industry did by going after downloaders instead of looking at their business model.


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## NorthernRaven (Aug 4, 2010)

The studios will try if at all possible to prevent streaming from turning into a low-price minimal margin business. Rentals rely on discs being made available at reasonable prices for mass consumer sale. If that ever goes away, and discs become more for collectors at higher prices, disc rental gets more expensive.

Even if not, the studios are trying to pressure rentals into a separate "window". Warner just recently started trying to prevent Blockbuster from buying its discs, to force it into accepting the current 28-days-after-release-date no-rental window they have with Netflix and Redbox. And I think there are hopes to extend that 28-day window as well. If the studios can swing it, it is possible that there will be a premium streaming window, before cheaper streaming and disc rentals are available. As things move to streaming, the studios have much more control over the content, and will probably want to extract more of the pie for themselves, if they can.

There may be limits to the music comparison - video is more data, people regard and consume it somewhat differently, and even blockheaded media conglomerates must have learned _something_ from the Napster wars...


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Netflix has recovered big time year-to-date. Sentiment is changing and people are excited about some streaming numbers released recently. I don't buy it. Earnings release on Jan. 25th. I'm thinking of putting in a short, the options are too expensive.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Netflix up huge after earnings. Glad I didn't play this game. I will stick to gold and silver.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

P/E of 32 after the last earnings. Still high, but better than it was a year ago. Still using Netflix.


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

Down 118$ after hours, oh lawdd


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## Ag Driver (Dec 13, 2012)

Just read that it's down ~13% after hours.


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## GizelleGizelle (Jun 10, 2016)

Yeah, it's now down 12.76 at $86.06


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## dotnet_nerd (Jul 1, 2009)

I don't see how NFLX can make money with Kodi offering tons of free content, especially the addons like Exodus


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## digitalatlas (Jun 6, 2015)

Most people are not tech aware enough to use Kodi, get add-ons, and figure that stuff out. Netflix is selling the experience as much as the content. As easy as Kodi is to someone who knows what they are doing, Netflix is still easier.


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