# Suncor (SU)



## Banalanal

Anyone buying at these levels? Anticipate further declines?


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## PMREdmonton

I bought a trance of 100 shares about a month ago right around this price.

The thing about Suncor is their PE is okay right now at this price but they have reserves which will last decades and they will still be producing when others have run out of reserves and prices are much, much higher.

I'll buy some more if it dips to $25.


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## PMREdmonton

Banalanal said:


> Anyone buying at these levels? Anticipate further declines?


BTW, I try not to predict the future too much.

It is a pretty good buy here.

It may be a better buy later on or it might spike back up to $45.


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## bigpun87

I like their current prices, and have made a position a few weeks ago.


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## Oldroe

I started buying SU last month. This will be my 4th ride. As mentioned those oil sands are still there and SU is the big player. Will keep buying and avg. down until I run out of money.


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## Toronto.gal

Oldroe said:


> Will keep buying and avg. down until I run out of money.


Well, I don't like to run out of money because I don't like to miss opportunities, but I too am being aggressive with SU at these prices as well as with a couple of other CDN stocks.

Speaking of oilsands, I had to simply roll my eyes when I heard this yesterday. 

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/09/18/ethical-oil-ad-campaign-riles-saudis


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## Banalanal

Would be curious to hear what other CDN stocks you are aggressively buying. I've added a few to my watchlist and just went over every CDN stock in the Dividend Aristocrats List.


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## Jungle

What about Exxon Mobile? It has a much lower P/E, google states in the 9s.


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## Banalanal

Most agree XOM is a decent longterm value buy at these levels as is SU. But I'm waiting for further sell offs in the broad market and the corresponding oil market before adding and initiating positions. I feel there has to be another dip when Greece defaults. XOM has an average P/E of around 11 so it's not as if it's on a massive selloff, but it is trading below historical P/E ratios and div yield ratios. But the two are valued differently, with a lot more future growth tacked into SU valuations.


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## Toronto.gal

Banalanal said:


> Would be curious to hear what other CDN stocks you are aggressively buying. I've added a few to my watchlist and just went over every CDN stock in the Dividend Aristocrats List.


I am still undecided about new CDN additions, but I'm looking at those below their 52 week low, like CNQ/CP. I had not wished to increase my list & simply wanted to accumulate, but at these prices, it is impossible to pass.

Also adding to existing positions that are close to, or below their 52 week low [seems that the majority are there now]. 

Made my 6th SU buy today. 

I sure wish I had more cash now.


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## Banalanal

Sounds like we're watching much of the same. Very close to pulling the trigger on SU I just feel like greater self offs are coming shortly.


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## dubmac

started a position in SU today at 26.29. If it drops - then I'll go back in.


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## Jungle

I'm getting interested now. If this goes to $24 I will be dumping money in.


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## Assetologist

Bought some at $19 on 2008-11-20 but now I would take more at $24 as well.


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## Financial Cents

SU is approaching a multi-year low. A sign of things to come, lower equities. Great time to buy. Just wish I had more cash


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## PMREdmonton

I bought some earlier around 29. I would probably add some more if it drops to 23 but I'm a bit heavy in energy at the moment. I know some people talk about diversification but I'm happy to guy what is out of favour at the moment. Oil will continue its long-term upward trajectory. Despite extreme negativity and high likelihood of recession we are sitting at $80/barrel. In the late 90s during a small boom it was trading around $20-25 if memory serves.

I think oil is back up to $100 again next year and is up over $150 by 2015 or so. We need to start taking energy efficiency much more seriously before we get caught with an economy that is too oil intensive.

That leads to my other investing thesis - uranium is just getting clobbered but it has great fundamentals too.


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## ddkay

WTI was $17 / bbl in 2001, CAD was at $0.6797 in 2001
WTI was $147 / bbl in 2007, CAD was at $1.1043 in 2007

That's some parabolic rate of growth. Do people think this is going to be like housing and proverbially "go sideways" for a few decades instead of bursting? lol sorry I find it really hard to understand the crazy dynamics in oil price.

I don't believe oil price going to whip around to $150 so quickly.

If the world economy actually worsens the most likely scenario is that oil will be treated like all other assets, aggressively sold at 2001 levels by highly vulnerable and heavily indebted oil producing sovereign's *cough OPEC* to generate cash. Take a lookie at the agricultural index to see what I mean.

IMO if governments truly believed in sustainability and alternative energy/transport, they wouldn't wait until the speculated market cost of oil grinded their economies to a halt, there would be a consumption tax to discourage using it and subsidise a move to renewables and improve public transportation like the London Congestion Charge.

Just because we may be reaching an exponential peak in the supply of oil doesn't mean that oil prices can appreciate infinitely, we'll get demand destruction and oil price will too follow the bell curve.


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## PMREdmonton

ddkay said:


> WTI was $17 / bbl in 2001, CAD was at $0.6797 in 2001
> WTI was $147 / bbl in 2007, CAD was at $1.1043 in 2007
> 
> That's some parabolic rate of growth. Do people think this is going to be like housing and proverbially "go sideways" for a few decades instead of bursting? lol sorry I find it really hard to understand the crazy dynamics in oil price.
> 
> I don't believe oil price going to whip around to $150 so quickly.
> 
> If the world economy actually worsens the most likely scenario is that oil will be treated like all other assets, aggressively sold at 2001 levels by highly vulnerable and heavily indebted oil producing sovereign's *cough OPEC* to generate cash. Take a lookie at the agricultural index to see what I mean.
> 
> IMO if governments truly believed in sustainability and alternative energy/transport, they wouldn't wait until the speculated market cost of oil grinded their economies to a halt, there would be a consumption tax to discourage using it and subsidise a move to renewables and improve public transportation like the London Congestion Charge.
> 
> Just because we may be reaching an exponential peak in the supply of oil doesn't mean that oil prices can appreciate infinitely, we'll get demand destruction and oil price will too follow the bell curve.



The thing that is putting a high floor on the cost of oil is that the marginal cost for each new barrel of oil is around $60 right now so oil can't stay below that for long before it increases - see what happened in the Great Recession where oil was below $40 for only a very short spell.

It may hurt countries that are importers economically but there is also no reasonable substitute for oil yet in transportation and there won't be in the next 20 years either. The battery technology isn't there for electrical and we still don't know how to do fuel cell hydrogen at a reasonable cost so we're stuck for a long time with high oil demand.

I know people talk about demand destruction in the US from oil imports but the US oil use has been in decline since 2008. The new demand for oil is coming from emerging markets and this will continue to grow for awhile as their incomes increase.

The other thing to consider is OPEC. Those countries need $70/barrel to avoid civil unrest so they will dramatically decrease supply if oil is weak to prop up its value and this will support the cost because there can only be so much demand destruction in our economies. When people talk about recessions they are usually talking about a 2-3% short term decrease in GDP so we aren't usually talking about a monumental contraction in economic activity.

If you want to talk about a commodity that can tank it's gold. It has no real industrial value and costs about $400/ounce to produce from companies like Barrick and Goldcorp so it's price can tank at any moment if the public's sentiment changes. The other thing is that gold isn't really consumed in any process so what is mined stays around basically forever so there is plenty of gold out there already.

So I'm happy to own the oil companies when the price plummets because I know it will come right back up.

I'm very interested in buying more assets like BP, RDS, CVX, CHK, SD, Total, IMO, CNQ etc. I already own some SU, MX, PBN, PSD (seismic company). I also plan on buying some of the drillers like SDRL which has a 10% yield right now and should have a very consistent business no matter the cost of oil.


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## ddkay

Suncor is reporting all their supply cash costs under $40/bbl, with in-situ bitumen at $16.50/bbl.

http://www.suncor.com/pdf/Fourth_Quarter_Feb_2011_EN.pdf 

Saudi light crude used to cost $10/bbl in the 1990s, now their breakeven is $90/bbl and Jadwa is forecasting $321/bbl by 2030? All I can say is good luck with that.

OPEC nations plan their fiscal budgets around $60/bbl oil, that's not the price it actually costs to get the product out of the ground. These high prices have consistently made them overshoot spending and end up with double/triple digit billion dollar deficits every time there's a price collapse. Places like Libya, Saudi Arabia, Qatar should have thought about social unrest before spending trillions on gold plated toilets, with 50%-70% youth unemployment social unrest is invariable IMO. The OPECs are screwed.


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## KaeJS

PMREdmonton said:


> We need to start taking energy efficiency much more seriously before we get caught with an economy that is too oil intensive.


Too late.


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## larry81

I am in 3760 @26.60

6 month - 1 year


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## R.O.V.

So far I have been exclusuively passive using ETF...however, I have 17K on the sideline in cash and made the first plunge with individual stocks inside my rrsp: 

SU 200 @ 28.40; IMO 100 @ 38.17


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## larry81

Welcome to the party R.O.V., see you at 40 !


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## R.O.V.

Hey Larry81, your fast and your comment made me laugh!! It will be interesting (and exciting) to see where these stocks go.


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## KaeJS

R.O.V. said:


> IMO 100 @ 38.17


Your opinion is worth $38.17/share? How did _THAT_ happen?  



larry81 said:


> Welcome to the party R.O.V., see you at 40 !


I wasn't going to buy, I really wasn't. I think it can go lower before it goes higher. But I joined the party for 100 shares today.


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## emperor

Suncor's oilsands site is old and falling apart, I'm called there often to help fix it. Their Voyager location has been mothballed but maybe when Firebag gets in full swing Voyager will start again. 

A few things will determine where Suncor stocks will be heading.

- They need to get the plant running correctly and stay running. Lots of stuff is going down.

- If the USA allows this pipeline to Texas stocks should go up.

- If the USA gets deperate enough to open the doors to big oil and let them drill more in Alaska and the Gulf all oilsands stock will drop.

My 2cents.


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## ddkay

Between a rock and a hard place, the range on this thing is getting really tight


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## blin10

it's very simple, if market goes up SU will go up, if market goes down SU will go down... but it's very hard to know where the market will go... spx is not too far away from 1000, that will be my next stop for loading up part 2


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## KaeJS

KaeJS said:


> I wasn't going to buy, I really wasn't. I think it can go lower before it goes higher. But I joined the party for 100 shares today.


How many points do I get for NOT listening to my gut instinct?

/hate myself.


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## larry81

KaeJS said:


> How many points do I get for NOT listening to my gut instinct?
> 
> /hate myself.


Its very hard to time bottoms so you buy when downside is limited and hold on for the ride !


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## Jungle

If you're long, leave a little room for adding another position. Set a target price and stick with it.


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## KaeJS

I'm long, but that was my last round of cashflow for now.

I may have to inject some $$$ in a couple weeks.


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## larry81

KaeJS said:


> I'm long, but that was my last round of cashflow for now.
> 
> I may have to inject some $$$ in a couple weeks.


If you need the cash in the next few weeks/months = not good

if you dont, then just stop thinking about it !


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## emperor

Looks like Suncor is back on its way down. $27.59

I'm with some of the other posters, if it hits 24 I'm going to get some


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## cdnpennystocks

Usually when I am unsure about a position I but 25-50% of what I want, then if it goes down more I can buy more, if it goes up I'm still somewhat invested


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## Jungle

+1 waiting to add positions below my cost price. Needs to come down a few dollars.


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## newbie

Jungle said:


> +1 waiting to add positions below my cost price. Needs to come down a few dollars.


watching this one like a hawk
still on the sidelines cuz i think that mkts will drift lower with downgrades that are coming.


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## larry81

In the mig-long term, any entry below 30 is very good


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## newbie

larry81 said:


> In the mig-long term, any entry below 30 is very good


what can u call mid long term with volatility skyrocketing?
there is no more buy and hold for me in the time being.
mkts rally on what today?
new homes numbers on USA ?
what happened to the old ones they still cant sell.
are u kidding?
and because spain sells bonds after all the liquidity already injected in europe?
not here bro.besides it went up 50 cents only today .jeez

just some info VIX on G2 contract trading at 27.69 today.
throw some sovereign countries downgrades in the mix and voila down goes everything one more time


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## HaroldCrump

newbie said:


> what can u call mid long term with volatility skyrocketing?
> there is no more buy and hold for me in the time being.
> mkts rally on what today?
> new homes numbers on USA ?
> what happened to the old ones they still cant sell.
> are u kidding?
> and because spain sells bonds after all the liquidity already injected in europe?
> not here bro.besides it went up 50 cents only today .jeez


^ I think this is our friend Belguy posting under a different name


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## newbie

HaroldCrump said:


> ^ I think this is our friend Belguy posting under a different name


no belguy here bro
i just have not been here for awhile
who is belguy anyway?
that is my real opinion.
u want to discuss mkts sure lets do it , but dont call me someone i am not alright?
my level 2 shows absolutely nothing impressive today about suncor.volume was high yes but then what?
short covering and closing books before year end?

forgot to add i have a bearish engulfing candle 1 day ago and today i have a doji above the bulish engulfing, lol.
on the other hand slow stochastics trying to show an entry point on the daily chart which is not confirmed yet .
if u can read charts harold than we talk alright?
sorry maybe u believe in santa right?
or did u buy the stock yesterday and sold it today?


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## newbie

HaroldCrump said:


> ^ I think this is our friend Belguy posting under a different name


i guess no reply means u dont know jack.
lurking in ur posts and sure thing u know jack.


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## Cal

Newbie, as you haven't been on here that long, we get that you don't know who Belguy is. Obviously you missed Harolds sarcasm. 

Take it easy, no need to get defensive.


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## KaeJS

^ Listen, buddy.

I don't know, nor do I care to know, who you are.

However, I've just read two of your posts and it seems like you get very heated/defensive and come off as belligerent, somewhat showing the characteristics of a warmonger.

Relax...

Some people agree, some people don't.

That's what makes the markets go 'round.


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## marina628

I wish Larry cashed it out about $5 dollars ago


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## newbie

KaeJS said:


> ^ Listen, buddy.
> 
> I don't know, nor do I care to know, who you are.
> 
> However, I've just read two of your posts and it seems like you get very heated/defensive and come off as belligerent, somewhat showing the characteristics of a warmonger.
> 
> Relax...
> 
> Some people agree, some people don't.
> 
> That's what makes the markets go 'round.


no problem
no defensiveness here
but just cuz i was here in the beggining to learn and came back with one or 2 posts doesnt mean that i needed the heat.
anyway
just checking if anyone here actually trades based on technicals 
that is all
if anyone is then we talk otherwise just forget it .


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## larry81

marina628 said:


> I wish Larry cashed it out about $5 dollars ago


Would have been a good move !

Initial target was 6months-1year

I am still holding and hoarding


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## supperfly17

A screaming buy now? What are you thoughts?


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## RParks

supperfly17 said:


> A screaming buy now? What are you thoughts?


I don't think you have to rush into it.


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## thompsg4416

A 54% dividend hike and a share buy back pgm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...r-hikes-dividend-54-per-cent/article11622439/

Also(for what its worth) the financial adviser of a colleague of mine who works for National bank has a 42$ price target on this one over the next year and a bit and are recommending for him to buy. Finally some good news for this company.


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## thompsg4416

near 6% gain yesterday.. I'm almost break even now. lol


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## GoldStone

6% gain today. You have to adjust your time zones when you post on CMF.


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## thompsg4416

GoldStone said:


> 6% gain today. You have to adjust your time zones when you post on CMF.


haha yeah you got me!


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## GoldStone

Berkshire sold 5 million shares. They still own 13 million.

Bought in Q2 2013 at $29.49 US.

Sold in Q4 2013 at $35.05 US.


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## banjopete

GoldStone said:


> Berkshire sold 5 million shares. They still own 13 million.
> 
> Bought in Q2 2013 at $29.49 US.
> 
> Sold in Q4 2013 at $35.05 US.


That's tidy business.


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## Killer Z

Anyone interested at these levels? I've been eyeing this one for a long term hold.


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## Butters

Thinking of it, but undecided if i want to wait until the trend reverses

whats your target entry price?

it should get at least 20% by next year

this or CNQ


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## doctrine

Don't underestimate the significance of this news this last week. http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Suncor+ships+first+western+crude+Europe/10229164/story.html


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## My Own Advisor

I will gladly buy some SU and CNQ over the next few months if prices continue to fall.


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## Killer Z

My Own Advisor said:


> I will gladly buy some SU and CNQ over the next few months if prices continue to fall.


Do you have a preference over the two? I have been looking to add to both my positions.


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## My Own Advisor

Not really Killer Z. I think they both have some capital upside but I would be buying both as dividend-payers for the income stream, either for TFSA or non-registered.

Hard to believe 52-week low for CNQ was about $32; it would be great to buy more at that price!!!


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## AltaRed

SheaButters said:


> Thinking of it, but undecided if i want to wait until the trend reverses
> 
> whats your target entry price?


I'd look for a price between $36-$38 and a reverse in trend back up. Commodities have further to fall in my opinon since the global economy (China and Europe) seems to have a cold. That may turn into bronchitis shortly. The 'sensationalized' news about Suncor's shipment to Europe is testing the waters. There wil be no material volumes moving out of Eastern Canada without an East-West pipeline. The rail lines are pretty much saturated without extensive double tracking and taken up with Bakken crude.


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## Killer Z

Added to my position today at $40.02. Long term hold.


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## mgr1397

In at 40.75....


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## protomok

Been buying Suncor today at $36, and bought late last week a bit higher. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock keeps dropping but IMO any time a stock like Suncor is at a 52 week low is a great time to buy...plus planning to hold for 20+ years.


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## FrugalTrader

I also added some Suncor today.


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## Pano

Finally going to grab some too. Long term hold.
I'm waiting a bit though as it looks like oil is still on it's way down. Interesting to see how far. 80$ maybe? Until this talk of slowing global demand and over supply shifts to a more positive outlook, it should reverse.


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## dubmac

Most of what I have seen suggests it's too early to buy anything! Not sure where the bottom is, but not there yet!
When headlines like these are produced..http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/13/us-oil-saudi-policy-idUSKCN0I201Y20141013
hard to say whether there will be much of a bounce in oil stocks...lots of supply by the looks of things...


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## protomok

I think the Saudis desire for a low oil price is more driven by wanting to hurt their competition from higher cost producers...i.e. Canada and USA.

Regardless the key benchmark for Canadian producers is WCS which is actually up YTD! Great article here with more details: http://business.financialpost.com/2...rgy-stocks-as-wcs-prices-defy-global-decline/

It kind of reminds me of 2008 when Canadian banks were clobbered even though some of them had almost no US exposure.

I'm not saying oil prices won't continue falling but I'm very comfortable backing up the truck and loading up on quality names like Suncor and MEG Energy and others at these nicely discounted prices.


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## gladaki

protomok said:


> I think the Saudis desire for a low oil price is more driven by wanting to hurt their competition from higher cost producers...i.e. Canada and USA.
> 
> Regardless the key benchmark for Canadian producers is WCS which is actually up YTD! Great article here with more details: http://business.financialpost.com/2...rgy-stocks-as-wcs-prices-defy-global-decline/
> 
> It kind of reminds me of 2008 when Canadian banks were clobbered even though some of them had almost no US exposure.
> 
> I'm not saying oil prices won't continue falling but I'm very comfortable backing up the truck and loading up on quality names like Suncor and MEG Energy and others at these nicely discounted prices.


MEG is a quality name ? Isnt their Debt is 22 times their cash flow.
Suncor trading today at 32$.I will be in at 25$.


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## Valueinvestor

Added to my position today. It's a ten year hold minimum for me. It may keep dropping but maybe not if oil rebounds


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## dogleg

Looks like it might have bottomed out -at least for a while???


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## My Own Advisor

I hope it drops again....please SU???


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## dogleg

Have you shorted any of these stocks on the way down?


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## AltaRed

I am not in any hurry. I think everything will head south again because oil is not likely going up anytime soon. I believe I can at least wait for 4Q14 results, if not 1Q15 resuilts... unless of course, the Saudis blink and future traders go wild with oil contracts.


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## My Own Advisor

@dogleg, me? No. No shorting here. Only buy when things correct by 10%, hopefully 20% or crash by 30%.

The problem is, I need money to invest and I won't have enough saved to make a decent buy until "TFSA season" in Jan.


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## dogleg

MOA: Up twenty or down thirty is a signal to buy? I think you lost me - or maybe I misunderstood what you said. Anyway good luck.


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## gladaki

Are we going to see another bottom ?..Everything is up


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## My Own Advisor

I hope so gladaki, annoying these run-ups


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## daddybigbucks

The recent bottom was speculation on the future of oil. It was a knee jerk reaction. Now oil producers will bob back up and probably go overvalued in the present landscape. 
Bad news and money woes will drive the stock prices down again.

When the quarterlies come out, you will see a lot of the high cost producers really get hit. SU will ride the tide better than most.


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## gladaki

I AM hoping it will go to 32$ today so I can get in


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## supperfly17

gladaki said:


> I AM hoping it will go to 32$ today so I can get in


What is it about the 32$ price point that makes you want to get in?


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## gladaki

supperfly17 said:


> What is it about the 32$ price point that makes you want to get in?


At 32 it gives 
2.5% yield


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## fatcat

gladaki said:


> At 32 it gives
> 2.5% yield


at 35.72 it is yielding 3.14 ... at a price of 32 barring divvy cuts it would be yielding 3.5%


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## Canadian

IMO the current yields of energy stocks is irrelevant. We've seen dividend cuts already and will likely see more. At this point I believe one will benefit by buying companies with relatively low costs of production (relative to other oil patch producers) and solid balance sheets. Nobody can predict the bottom but one can't go wrong adding to positions in solid companies at these prices (and continuing to add over the comings as oil prices remain depressed) - with a long-term view this is definitely buying territory.


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## gladaki

Canadian said:


> IMO the current yields of energy stocks is irrelevant. We've seen dividend cuts already and will likely see more. At this point I believe one will benefit by buying companies with relatively low costs of production (relative to other oil patch producers) and solid balance sheets. Nobody can predict the bottom but one can't go wrong adding to positions in solid companies at these prices (and continuing to add over the comings as oil prices remain depressed) - with a long-term view this is definitely buying territory.


True..


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## plasmasnake

SU was in the $31 range a couple of weeks ago when oil was trading around $60. Now oil is down to $50 and SU is trading in the $35 range. I'm not sure if anybody can confidently determine whether the market was overreacting on SU earlier, or whether it's overvalued now because everyone and their dog is buying it as a "safe haven" oil stock. I actually did a little swing trade on it, and sold at $37. Glad I did - I got burnt hard enough on COS already. Not sure at what point I'd be willing to pick this up again.


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## supperfly17

plasmasnake said:


> SU was in the $31 range a couple of weeks ago when oil was trading around $60. Now oil is down to $50 and SU is trading in the $35 range. I'm not sure if anybody can confidently determine whether the market was overreacting on SU earlier, or whether it's overvalued now because everyone and their dog is buying it as a "safe haven" oil stock. I actually did a little swing trade on it, and sold at $37. Glad I did - I got burnt hard enough on COS already. Not sure at what point I'd be willing to pick this up again.


Thats exactly what I think as well. If this continues I would not be surprised if it goes down to 2011 levels, when we were all thinking whether or not at that time the entry price was good.


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## gladaki

supperfly17 said:


> Thats exactly what I think as well. If this continues I would not be surprised if it goes down to 2011 levels, when we were all thinking whether or not at that time the entry price was good.


below 30 is a steal for this stock


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## Canadian

I'm content buying SU anywhere under $35. I don't know where the bottom will be but I'll continue adding to my position on the way down as I accumulate cash. Things don't look pretty now but I'm sure it will play out nicely in X number of decades when I retire.


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## My Own Advisor

I also think $30 is a steal for SU. I will find money somehow, to buy shares if it gets to this price.


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## leeder

gladaki said:


> At 32 it gives
> 2.5% yield


What's so special about 3.5% yield? Why not wait till it hits $28 when it's 4%?  

But yeah, I'd like to see either Suncor or Canadian Natural Resources come down in price. I guess the age old question is which one would you own if forced to choose one? Probably not the best question to ask in a Suncor thread...


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## Canadian

leeder said:


> I guess the age old question is which one would you own if forced to choose one?


My answer: choose both.


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## leeder

Canadian said:


> My answer: choose both.


Unfortunately, I only have a limited amount of available money to initiate a new position. I want to invest in the best idea rather than split money and invest in 2nd best or 3rd best.


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## Chris L

Big cuts - 1,000 jobs gone: http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/sunc...taking-1-billion-out-of-2015-budget-1.2186975


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## AltaRed

The cuts will primarily be in contract jobs, partly due to deferred capex spending on various expansions and project delays. The number is well within expectations. They probably have 8000-10,000 contractors at work in addition to their 13000+ employees. That is a pretty typical requirement - things I've done at least 3 times in my O&G career.


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## My Own Advisor

I suspect you are correct AR. I suspect the cuts will push the price higher in coming days.


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## Chris Boar

Suncor is my 'play money' part of my RRSP, allowed myself one individual stock as well as my ETF's.

I brought $10K's worth a few weeks back at $32. Nearly sold at 14% up about a week later but held on. Want the dividends. Originally planned for this to be long term, e.g. 10 years, but starting to wonder just how robust the entire Oil Sands industry is. Saudi seems to be out for the kill, drive the Oil Sands and the US Shale business into the ground.


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## CPA Candidate

I sold my position in Suncor yesterday at $37.50. I had bought the shares in September when I thought $40 represented a buying opportunity and never expected the kind of carnage that has unfolded over the past 4-5 months. The current price of Suncor shares is not reflecting the grim economic reality facing them, which presented a exit with only a small loss of capital, so I took it. Consider the price of WTI at the time of SU purchase was $80+ and now it is half that and SU is only down 7-8%.

I feel relieved. "Commodities....never again" is my long term investing mantra.


----------



## fatcat

CPA Candidate said:


> I feel relieved. "Commodities....never again" is my long term investing mantra.


:biggrin: ... that's what i keep telling myself also


----------



## Toronto.gal

fatcat said:


> :biggrin: ... that's what i keep telling myself also


That is why trading experience comes in handy, seriously!

No need to exit permanently & miss out on a great opportunity. It's simpler than you think, all you have to do is enter after a crash to get a value of a lifetime perhaps, and your reward would come before 2 long a 'long-term'. each: 

Then stay out until the next crash.


----------



## protomok

Just bought some more Suncor shares on today's dip. I'm still mostly in index funds but this is my individual stock pick for the year. Must resist the urge to add more!!


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> ...
> 
> No need to exit permanently & miss out on a great opportunity. *It's simpler than you think, all you have to do is enter after a crash to get a value of a lifetime perhaps*, and your reward would come before 2 long a 'long-term'. each:
> 
> Then stay out until the next crash.


 ... and you need a fatcat's wallet and stomach too for that. :biggrin: Or maybe just stay out all together. Joking of course.


----------



## My Own Advisor

"...Saudi seems to be out for the kill, drive the Oil Sands and the US Shale business into the ground."

+1 

Time will tell if our oil economy will recover....I suspect oil prices have to go up, eventually?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Beaver101 said:


> ... and you need a fatcat's wallet and stomach too for that. :biggrin:


Neither one, assuming you buy after a crash/severe correction, and of course presupposing the investment does not go $0.

The problem is not recognizing stock appreciation until it crashes.

Commodity markets are volatile for a reason, especially the most volatile of all.


----------



## fatcat

Beaver101 said:


> ... and you need a fatcat's wallet and stomach too for that. :biggrin: Or maybe just stay out all together. Joking of course.


far be it from me to quibble with gals excellent advice, you absolutely can trade commodities profitably ... i am not a trader by nature but more a plodder so i miss many good opportunities i am sure 

but as to your comment that you are only joking about staying out of commodities, there is no reason for anyone to have commodities in their portfolio, you can build a great and profitable portfolio by just sidestepping them altogether, right ? ...

some people build portfolios based entirely on defensive stocks

but of course when we smell opportunity it's hard to resist


----------



## leeder

My Own Advisor said:


> I suspect oil prices have to go up, eventually?


Isn't that what we tell ourselves when we are about to catch a falling knife too?


----------



## leeder

fatcat said:


> some people build portfolios based entirely on defensive stocks
> 
> but of course when we smell opportunity it's hard to resist


+1

It also doesn't help that there are so many commodity stocks in the Canadian market. It almost can't be helped to look up a commodity stock when you want to find something that trades on the TSX.


----------



## My Own Advisor

The majority of stocks go up over time. If you own individual stocks, you just hope the ones you picked are part of that bunch. If so, you're "good". If not, welcome to your capital loss 

On that note, should be an interesting day for COS tomorrow.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

The thing that worries me about oil stocks (not one in particular) is that the dive in oil is expected to last 6 months. Who knows if it will last that long but stock prices have already crashed and most companies have hedged well into Q2-Q3 2015. From a cash flow perspective things aren't so bad right now.....until the hedges run out. At that point hopefully oil will have recovered. 

Large integrated companies have hedged most of their 2015 pricing but after the hedges end, this could get ugly.

Likely a blip on the radar in the long term as Mark mentioned above but for the short term it may be bad. Again, who knows, I could be totally wrong and the recovery could start next week.


----------



## Toronto.gal

fatcat said:


> *1.* i am not a trader by nature but more *a plodder* so i miss many good opportunities i am sure
> *2.* there is no reason for anyone to have commodities in their portfolio, *you can build a great and profitable portfolio by just sidestepping them*/when we *smell opportunity* it's hard to resist


*1.* One needs to be careful when using the controversial & often misunderstood 'T' word. 

When I said 'trading experience comes in handy', I wasn't suggesting you should become a trader; plodding can actually be effective, as you're not exactly idling, just taking your time, which can sometimes work in your favour, and other times miss a good price. What I meant is that the 'experience' of traders can help in decision making at times like these, ie, when to trim & top-up with less hesitation.

*2.* Buying defensive stocks, as u often explain to the resident bear, :biggrin: works well indeed, and speaking of building a great portfolio, I'm reminded of the article I believe you posted a while ago. I'll repost since there are very good points. Btw, I view opportunistic buys as defensive moves if not investments. 

*Essentials Portfolio*
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ly-simple-must-have-portfolio/article4391968/

SU + other oil & volatile stocks are very much part of my long*er*-term portfolio, but given their volatility, get more attention than the defensive ones. However, like you/Beav and CPA, the time will come when my heart will only tolerate a portfolio based entirely on defensive stocks. I buy/sell in tranches, and I'm close to topping-up one last time here [since I don't believe we'll see $20 or even $30 oil price].


----------



## My Own Advisor

I don't see $30 oil. Our country might go bankrupt.


----------



## Pluto

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.*
> 
> *2.* Buying defensive stocks, as u often explain to the resident bear, :biggrin: works well indeed, and speaking of building a great portfolio, I'm reminded of the article I believe you posted a while ago. I'll repost since there are very good points. Btw, I view opportunistic buys as defensive moves if not investments.
> 
> *Essentials Portfolio*
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ly-simple-must-have-portfolio/article4391968/


That's a fine article. I read on this forum some people having 30 stocks and they think they still need more for "diversification". All they are doing is diversifying into average and weak stocks. Keep it small, and focus on the best. As far as his idea of the "essentials" maybe he missed food, and the potash that helps provide it. His portfolio wouldn't be harmed by some Potash stock.


----------



## FrugalTrader

From the article, the essentials portfolio consists of:

CN/CP - railway (industrials)
Enbridge - pipeline (energy)
TRP - pipeline/electricity provider (energy)
Fortis - electricity provider (utility)
RBC/TD - banks (financials)

While I don't disagree with his picks, as Pluto stated, what about consumer staples? Healthcare? Technology? Telecom?


----------



## fatcat

Toronto.gal said:


> *Essentials Portfolio*
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ly-simple-must-have-portfolio/article4391968/
> 
> .


that article influenced me a lot ... i am now heading toward 66 and i just don't have the energy (or interest) to do the work to trade in and out of stocks successfully ... at my age a defensive, boring, mostly high-cap portfolio is just right



> That's a fine article. I read on this forum some people having 30 stocks and they think they still need more for "diversification". All they are doing is diversifying into average and weak stocks. Keep it small, and focus on the best. As far as his idea of the "essentials" maybe he missed food, and the potash that helps provide it. His portfolio wouldn't be harmed by some Potash stock.


right, i am always asking myself how i can get rid of stocks ... the article referenced settled on 7, that just scares me a little but i do think that settling on fewer higher quality stocks as you get older makes more sense and is easier to manage



> CN/CP - railway (industrials)
> Enbridge - pipeline (energy)
> TRP - pipeline/electricity provider (energy)
> Fortis - electricity provider (utility)
> RBC/TD - banks (financials)
> 
> While I don't disagree with his picks, as Pluto stated, what about consumer staples? Healthcare? Technology? Telecom?


i completely agree and so no reason to have to 2 railroads and 2 banks when you can slot in a healthcare and a staple, this would improve the portfolio a lot

how about a 10 stock portfolio, one from each sector ? .. a 10-pack if you will ? sorry argo each:


----------



## Toronto.gal

fatcat said:


> *1.* the article referenced *settled on 7*, that just scares me a little but i do think that settling on fewer higher quality stocks as you get older makes more sense and is easier to manage
> *2.* completely agree and so *no reason to have to 2 railroads and 2 banks*...


*1.* 7 would be a bit scary for me, too! When I first began building my own portfolio 5 years ago, it was 'blazingly simple' as well, but I got more adventurous with experience/time. 

The retired professor mentioned the 7 stocks as being the core of the retirement savings he and his wife would rely on/that had to pay a div. with a record of periodic increases. From the article is not clear when he retired exactly, but we know he began to build the 'Essentials Portfolio' around 2000, so that could explain why he did not buy tech stocks for example, as he may not have liked them for 'the long haul,' and how many of them were paying dividends back then anyway? He also said that the 'core' is not all he owns, so he could well hold others. What I did find surprising was the no pharma in his list, but I'm sure he avoided them for a reason.

*2.* I disagree when it comes to CN/CP, as those are more of a duopoly. And 2 banks is not ideal either; at least 3.


----------



## leeder

Those essential stocks are very Buffett like. They are stocks with high barriers to entry, and they perform remarkably well in bear and bull markets. Tech stocks aren't necessarily the easiest to understand. And there's not many stocks classified as health industry in Canada. Consumer staple stocks in Canada are fairly competitive.


----------



## fatcat

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* 7 would be a bit scary for me, too! When I first began building my own portfolio 5 years ago, it was 'blazingly simple' as well, but I got more adventurous with experience/time.
> 
> The retired professor mentioned the 7 stocks as being the core of the retirement savings he and his wife would rely on/that had to pay a div. with a record of periodic increases. From the article is not clear when he retired exactly, but we know he began to build the 'Essentials Portfolio' around 2000, so that could explain why he did not buy tech stocks for example, as he may not have liked them for 'the long haul,' and how many of them were paying dividends back then anyway? He also said that the 'core' is not all he owns, so he could well hold others. What I did find surprising was the no pharma in his list, but I'm sure he avoided them for a reason.
> 
> *2.* I disagree when it comes to CN/CP, as those are more of a duopoly. And 2 banks is not ideal either; at least 3.


on the cn/cp and banks, yes, this is the conundrum, there are some areas where multiple names are better then 1 ... i own td/ry/bmo and fts/cu/ema and bce/t/sjr, all are long term let em ride holds and i would not want to have to pick just 1 of each so right there you have 9 stocks instead of 3

just for fun, if i were to do a 10-pack from each of the sectors i would do:

financials = td
energy = enb
consumer staples = p&g
consumer discretionary = dis
healthcare = jnj
industrials = cnr
materials = pot
infotech = appl
telecom = t(elus)
utilities = fts

i do own all those except appl and pot (i have apple in QQQ)


----------



## My Own Advisor

How about a "24"? Too many?

financials = 6 CDN banks 
energy/pipelines = ENB, TRP, IPL, SU
consumer stocks = PG, KO
healthcare = JNJ, GSK
industrials = CNR
materials = POT
infotech = APPL, IBM
telecom = T (telus), BCE, T (AT&T)
utilities = FTS, CU, EMA

Index invest everything else.

Enjoy your "24"!


----------



## Synergy

My Own Advisor said:


> How about a "24"? Too many?


Personally I'd cut the CDN banks down to 2-3 and pick up 1-2 US financials. Otherwise, 20-24 names seems manageable. Long term my goal will be to hold 10-12 individual CDN stocks and index the US and international markets.


----------



## leeder

I know a lot of people hold quite a number of individual stocks in their portfolios. But I never can grasp how people can manage 20+ stock portfolio. To me, it's either hold cream of the crop stocks that one has performed thorough research on or put it in an index fund. My holdings are currently what Synergy described as his long term goal. I hold 9 Canadian stocks in my non-registered (plus one individual stock in my TFSA and three REITs). Everything else is index (US, EAFE, emerging).


----------



## fatcat

My Own Advisor said:


> How about a "24"? Too many?
> 
> financials = 6 CDN banks
> energy/pipelines = ENB, TRP, IPL, SU
> consumer stocks = PG, KO
> healthcare = JNJ, GSK
> industrials = CNR
> materials = POT
> infotech = APPL, IBM
> telecom = T (telus), BCE, T (AT&T)
> utilities = FTS, CU, EMA
> 
> Index invest everything else.
> 
> Enjoy your "24"!


that looks frighteningly close to what i have now :biggrin:

i have 3 banks and 2 insurers, ppl instead of ipl, no pot, no tech but qqq instead

i count 24 stocks and 1 etf for me ... i don't see anywhere that is an easy trim/consolidation except maybe energy and consumer ... i have pg,ul,dis,sbux,dol ... i could probably sell either pg or ul but they actually are not as correlated in terms of product lines as you would think


----------



## FrugalTrader

Here are some that I like:

Consumer Discretionary: MCD, DIS, SBUX
Consumer Staples: PG, WMT, WN, KO, UL
Energy: XOM, CVX, ENB, SU, TRP
Financials: RY, TD, BMO, BNS, V
Heath Care: JNJ, ABBV
Industrials: GE, MMM, CP
Tech: AAPL, MSFT, INTC, GOOGL
Materials: POT
Telecom: T(elus) and T (AT&t)
Utilities: FTS, EMA


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## Toronto.gal

^^Good thing you mentioned SU next to energy to stay on topic.  Stock up 3.5% today.

As for managing 20+ stocks, some don't require much time, like the 'Buffett' type stocks. I have been reducing my holdings, from 5 to 4 banks, and other changes. Eventually I would like to reduce to 15, but never as low as the prof.


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## FrugalTrader

@T.gal, I should be more careful about staying on topic - I'm not a moderator anymore.


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## Eclectic12

leeder said:


> I know a lot of people hold quite a number of individual stocks in their portfolios.
> But I never can grasp how people can manage 20+ stock portfolio...


Depends on the stocks ... something like BCE, ENB, MRU or FTS doesn't need a lot of attention.

Buying Nortel at $2 anticipating a bounce or a more volatile, less established company on the other hand ... requires a lot more attention. :biggrin:


... wished I'd had more time to notice & buy when SU was lower but maybe there'll be another opportunity.


Cheers


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## Beaver101

FrugalTrader said:


> @T.gal, I should be more careful about staying on topic - I'm not a moderator anymore.


 ... aren't you glad you're no longer a moderator and in which case you don't have to be careful to stay on topic. :biggrin: Oops, I'm in the wrong thread, ciao.


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## My Own Advisor

@FT, Not bad I guess


----------



## My Own Advisor

@Fatcat,

Close to mine too!


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## londoncalling

Toronto.gal said:


> ^^Good thing you mentioned SU next to energy to stay on topic.  Stock up 3.5% today.
> 
> As for managing 20+ stocks, some don't require much time, like the 'Buffett' type stocks. I have been reducing my holdings, from 5 to 4 banks, and other changes. Eventually I would like to reduce to 15, but never as low as the prof.


Staying completely off topic I hav an unrelated non Suncor or even energy question... which Canadian bank did you ditch? when and why? I only hold 2 but plan on acquiring at least 2 or 3 more positions of the big 5,6 or 7. I hold a few foreign banks but no US as I thought I missed the ride. Now that the C$ is sub 80 feel even more so. US banking confuses me compared to (edit: Canadian not US) banks.


----------



## fatcat

londoncalling said:


> Staying completely off topic I hav an unrelated non Suncor or even energy question... which Canadian bank did you ditch? when and why? I only hold 2 but plan on acquiring at least 2 or 3 more positions of the big 5,6 or 7. I hold a few foreign banks but no US as thought I missed the ride. Now that the C$ is sub 80 feel even more so. US banking confuses me compared to US banks.


i don't know why you would go outside canada to pick up your banks ? ... we have terrific banks and you get the dividend tax credit and no currency worries ... you can use your american funds for things like consumer staples and discretionary ... i did a little research and concluded you only need 3 banks to cover the sector, maybe 2 ... i have ry,td,bmo


----------



## Synergy

^ I thought the entire post was an attempt at sarcasm?? FWIW I agree with fatcat, 2-3 is all you need. If the feds end up raising rates, US banks should do very well, better than CDN banks IMO.

Suncor reports on Feb 5th.


----------



## Toronto.gal

londoncalling said:


> which Canadian bank did you ditch? when and why?


I'm a bit of a contrarian investor, so the one that's probably on most people's top list - TD. Sold last year, because after RY became my largest bank holding between 2011/2012 [for being the poorest performer], I wanted to make BNS/BMO the next gradual (increased) targets. I figured that I already had enough US exposure via other US & Canadian financial stocks.

Former TD's CEO said [in I believe the Lang & O'Leary Exchange], that the highest returns come from low risk strategies. I'm not sure about that, nor that their strategies have been that low risk [their $25 billion US expansion after all, started before the financial crisis]. I must sound stupid to doubt a bank's CEO. Anyway, I did fine as an investor, so no complaints in that regard. 

Someone brought ZEB to my attention last week, and despite the ETF name, I was surprised at the similar equal weight %. For example, TD @ 17% vs. BMO & RY @ 16.89% & 16.43% respectively [the latter the lowest of 5 banks]. Why would anyone pay an MER for that instead of owning them outright, even if only 2 or 3?

I don't trade the Canadian banks in case you're wondering that, too LC; I do DRIP them [I hold/trade foreign banks]. 

Speaking of banks & portfolios, would you have an all bank portfolio? Some here mock dividends, but:

'The banks have also excelled in the dividend department. To take one example, *if you’d bought 100 shares of Royal Bank 20 years ago, you would have initially received $116 in dividends annually. If you held the shares until today – and never bought another share or reinvested a dividend – you would now have 400 shares (thanks to two stock splits) and would be collecting $1,200 in dividends – more than 10 times your original income.'* [didn't verify for myself].

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ank-on-an-all-bank-portfolio/article21295299/


----------



## Toronto.gal

Synergy said:


> 1. I agree with fatcat, 2-3 is all you need.
> 2. Suncor reports on Feb 5th.


*1.* Eventually I'll get to 3 as well.
*2.* You know how to get back on topic. :wink: 

SU will actually report on the 4th, after hours - teleconference on the 5th.

While we wait, previously released information:

'Suncor Energy Inc. announced today significant spending reductions to its 2015 budget in response to the current lower crude price environment. The cuts include a $1 billion decrease in the company's capital spending program, as well as sustainable operating expense reductions of $600 million to $800 million to be phased in over two years offsetting inflation and growth.'

http://www.suncor.com/en/newsroom/5441.aspx?id=1911200


----------



## My Own Advisor

Looking forward to the SU numbers....


----------



## londoncalling

" I must sound stupid to doubt a bank's CEO. Anyway, I did fine as an investor, so no complaints in that regard."

A very contrarian statement indeed. ; ) All that should matter to an investor is how they did. For Can banks I try and buy the worst performer/highest yielder every couple years. I am holding off on energy unless there is another huge drop after earnings are released this week. Curious to see if the numbers are worse than the market thinks. I doubt they will be but if they are I may add

Cheers


----------



## Synergy

Toronto.gal said:


> *2.* You know how to get back on topic. :wink:


Indeed. I try to stay out of trouble! It's a good day for the oily stocks...


----------



## My Own Advisor

Yes, O&G on fire. Nothing has really changed over the weekend.


----------



## oob

My Own Advisor said:


> Yes, O&G on fire. Nothing has really changed over the weekend.


Do you guys think the rally is overdone? WTI is still at $50, and Suncor and other names are already above where they were when oil was above $75!
I don't get it, but happy to be proven wrong. Don't know a ton about the space.


----------



## Chris L

Some of the big names like SU might be overbought. Money moving into the safe companies. Just my 2 cents. Investors seem to be playing catch up in the smaller and middle size names and also working ahead of the market as most expect low oil to be short lived. Seems to me that a 2% change in oil leads to a 5% spike in respective stock prices. Obviously, this can't continue...eventually things will match out.


----------



## oob

Chris L said:


> Some of the big names like SU might be overbought. Money moving into the safe companies. Just my 2 cents. Investors seem to be playing catch up in the smaller and middle size names and also working ahead of the market as most expect low oil to be short lived. Seems to me that a 2% change in oil leads to a 5% spike in respective stock prices. Obviously, this can't continue...eventually things will match out.


Seems like banks (housing at play too obviously) and engineering and construction stocks such as snc got crushed with oil and haven't participated in the rally at all. seems to be the more compelling play to me.


----------



## Chris L

Housing is a big drag on banks it would seem. Even more than oil, plus credit is about done it's expansion. Banks have come up a bit on oil, but you're right, there are other factors. I'm watching banks a bit, but I'm not biting yet.

Turning my eye to the smaller oil companies...if you're looking for some hidden value, gotta be careful though.


----------



## Synergy

oob said:


> Seems like banks (housing at play too obviously) and engineering and construction stocks such as snc got crushed with oil and haven't participated in the rally at all. seems to be the more compelling play to me.


NA being one of the banks with the most oil exposure corrected quite nicely along with some of the oil stocks. it's also participating in the rally a little moe than some of the other banks, up over 4% today (vs 2% for some of the other banks).


----------



## CPA Candidate

Earned an EPS of 6 cents in Q4, down 81% from prior year. If you annualize that, SU is trading at about 150x earnings. Even on a cashflow basis (1.03 per share for Q4), they are trading at 9x 4th quarter annualized numbers.

The only way the current valuation can be justified is if WTI returns to near normal levels sometime this year. There is very little oil price discount in effect right now.


----------



## Chris L

I agree, the big names have already priced in forward price increase of oil. The middle companies are pretty darn close if not there already. To find value (risk) one has to go lower in the food chain to the small caps. LRE (0.9 to 1.27) and PWT (yes I know, but it was trading at 1.8 and now 2.75) have been ridding much higher in recent days than other companies. Playing catch-up.


----------



## 1sImage

$51 oil prices and this stock is mantaining a super high price and rising.
Somethings gotta give here.


----------



## Chris L

If I had SU, I would be harvesting some gains. Nearing $40 (with oil at $50) with the 52 week high of $47 (at $100+ oil)...something's a little off.


----------



## gardner

SU is integrated, so they do not just do business in crude but also in chemicals and retail. A drop in crude prices makes those other LOBs more profitable. I think part of their staying power is due to a flight-to-quality artificially pumping up the price, but I also think there is a basis of quality there. I haven't looked at their reports to see how much money comes from where, so maybe I'm full of it.


----------



## Butters

I believe suncor has the lowest debt of all the companies also...
I bought suncor before the meltdown, im even again 

Part of me wants to sell it to hide from oil, but the other part wants to at least gain some % ^_^ greed i guess

The other companies tanked... SU held steady... the other companies are going up 10% a day, whereas SU says at 2% it's all balancing out


----------



## fatcat

gardner said:


> SU is integrated, so they do not just do business in crude but also in chemicals and retail. A drop in crude prices makes those other LOBs more profitable. I think part of their staying power is due to a flight-to-quality artificially pumping up the price, but I also think there is a basis of quality there. I haven't looked at their reports to see how much money comes from where, so maybe I'm full of it.


agree, su is where you go when you don't want to own oil but think that you have to own _some_ oil


----------



## GGO

I am also puzzled by the stock price in light of their latest earning report. Does not seem to add up. If oil price stay at current level for a few more quarters, wouldn't EPS crash ?


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Suncor now Buffetts largest energy holding.


----------



## fatcat

Ihatetaxes said:


> Suncor now Buffetts largest energy holding.


and 3 of his top 4 are in the semi-crapper ... IBM, KO and AXP ... i am afraid he is showing his age


----------



## My Own Advisor

He won't sell any of those 3. SU is likely his last big play. I can't wait to read his next letter to shareholders. It should be out soon.


----------



## fatcat

My Own Advisor said:


> He won't sell any of those 3. SU is likely his last big play. I can't wait to read his next letter to shareholders. It should be out soon.


KO is a coin toss, i wouldn't touch IBM and i don't know enough about AXP to comment


----------



## GoldStone

Suncor has a whopping 0.65% weight in BRK portfolio. I wouldn't read anything into it.

Also, it's very likely not Buffett's pick. According to Forbes article below, Suncor is Ted Weschler's position. Ted and Todd each manage a few billion $$$. They can make investments without consulting Buffett.

http://fortune.com/2014/10/14/buffett-proteges-ted-weschler-todd-combs/


----------



## treva84

Down 3.4% (37.03) today; like all energy stocks post NDP election. I'm thinking of adding to my position. Oil is above $60 a barrel, surely this is just irrational fear?


----------



## Butters

interesting i think it was easy to predict a NDP victory, but I didn't think of the effects on the market

NDP will have trouble attacking these guys, they probably don't want to stir the pot before the federal election later this year

if oil keeps going up, suncor will keep making monies


----------



## GoldStone

Suncor closed $37 today. It traded at the same level in the second half of 2013, when WTI hovered around $100. Oil is 40% lower today. Eric Nuttall made a point that most oil majors are discounting a much higher oil price. An argument can be made they got well ahead of the oil price recovery. Or, in other words, they detached from the fundamentals. And that's before NDP majority.


----------



## Butters

http://www.nickldown.com/BNN034.html

above is a link to Eric Nuttalls top picks

not really great returns

he might as well be a technical analyst, and just flip coins on the show


Eric is known to say buy something this week, and sell it the next

his short positions won't be on these stocks forever 



Will have to agree that most oil stocks have a recovery bound into their price already... but i'm not playing with much so i'd rather hold than jump in and out with fees
oil has been sneaking up  and selling chocolate bars at petro canada has been keeping Suncor a float


----------



## GoldStone

Ok, forget Eric. I heard similar comments from many other sources. It's just common sense. Suncor traded at the same price level when oil was 40% higher. It's as if oil price doesn't matter at all.


----------



## Butters

Yes, I agree the price has rebound caked into it

from 2010 to 2015 the stock hasn't moved much, whereas most other stocks doubled++

I think this stock is in a lot of pension funds, and they are patient with it

I don't know if any oil names are worth a buy... expect BAD.to but they are a bit different


----------



## Vicjai

SheaButters said:


> Yes, I agree the price has rebound caked into it
> 
> from 2010 to 2015 the stock hasn't moved much, whereas most other stocks doubled++
> 
> I think this stock is in a lot of pension funds, and they are patient with it
> 
> I don't know if any oil names are worth a buy... expect BAD.to but they are a bit different


True, it really hasn't moved, but on the bright side, when oil dropped to $40, it still didn't fluctuate out of the norm, proving its resilience. I have position in Suncor becuase of this reason, it acts as a hedge against pretty much everything and I chip off tiny blocks when it rises a bit too much during a week while buying a bit more when it drops during the next. With a healthy revenue stream and ever strong balance sheets, its definitely in my opinion one of the slowest but safest stocks to buy in the country.


----------



## james4beach

Now here is an incredible stock. It is dramatically outperforming its sector, check out this chart of Suncor price divided by XEG
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU.TO:XEG.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58124875815

If you're a shareholder, you've really picked a winner here. That's an amazing 5 year outperformance. The sector may be doing horribly, but you're doing the best anyone can hope for within that sector.

Here's the opposite case. Barrick Gold versus the gold sector:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABX.TO:XGD.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73165109168


----------



## AltaRed

CNQ is not far behind and check out IMO. The latter blows SU out of the ballpark. The lesson here is to sometimes look at those with (relatively) low dividend yields and a reputation for project and financial management. Course it helps that all 3 have a downstream position, especially IMO and SU.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

Suncor posts $2 billion loss for Q4 2015. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suncor-loss-2-billion-fourth-quarter-1.3433015


----------



## My Own Advisor

Anyone tempted to buy more SU if the price falls under $30 again?


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

Count me in (at the right price)


----------



## spongewen

Load some last month around $27.5, will add more if possible


----------



## besmartrich

Interesting. SU is rallying. I was going to wait and see how many percentage it will drop today and possibly next little while. Oh well....


----------



## bjthebuilder

Just a question - I have a synthetic drip on Suncor for a few years now. The ex div date was Dec 2, and Payment date was 24, but i haven't seen a payment of any kind. Anyone have any insight into what may have happened?


----------



## gardner

TDDI paid out my SU dividend on the 24th.


----------



## sinfullivingsolution

if its a drip, it typically takes 10 days to see the additional new stock created from the drip. if you get paid out cash, it usually happens that day.


----------



## bjthebuilder

sinfullivingsolution said:


> if its a drip, it typically takes 10 days to see the additional new stock created from the drip. if you get paid out cash, it usually happens that day.


I'm with TD as well, called them and they said shares had not been released by Suncor yet.


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## sinfullivingsolution

bjthebuilder said:


> I'm with TD as well, called them and they said shares had not been released by Suncor yet.


probably all the stats slowed the process as its around 10 business days for most of my drips.


----------



## Money172375

Haven’t followed this for awhile. Anyone buying here? I’m considering for a locked in rsp. Long term hold


----------



## MoldyOldy

Money172375 said:


> Haven’t followed this for awhile. Anyone buying here? I’m considering for a locked in rsp. Long term hold


I'm sure some were bought today at $18.42


----------



## doctrine

In @ $19.50


----------



## james4beach

Suncor cut its dividend 55%

Suncor Cuts Dividend 55%, Chops Capital Spending Again - BNN Bloomberg


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## bgc_fan

james4beach said:


> Suncor cut its dividend 55%
> 
> Suncor Cuts Dividend 55%, Chops Capital Spending Again - BNN Bloomberg


I wonder if that's going to be a foreshadow of another oil stock crash. When you look at the recoveries of the oil stocks, it didn't really make any real sense considering that the financial impacts of the drop in oil prices hasn't registered yet. With the dividend cut, I imagine there'll be a drop in stock price, but the questions are how far and when?


----------



## doctrine

This shouldn't really be a surprise and I think has mostly been priced in. Suncor isn't the type of company to pay a dividend out of spite, nor have investors historically relied on it as it typically is 3-4% at most. Better to cut it before they start attracting investors interested in the high yield.

The biggest oil supply contraction in history is underway. Any increase in demand from here is going to require investment, and there is none; production is going to fall much further in the next 12 months. Suncor identified $35 WTI as the point where they are sustainable with current capital spending and the new dividend. While that price isn't in the future contracts until 2021-22, that price is well lower than virtually all other companies and countries in the world. There were only capital writedowns in Fort Hills and their offshore production.


----------



## newfoundlander61

Has Suncor peaked around these levels for the next couple of years or could it ever get back above $40


----------



## AltaRed

newfoundlander61 said:


> Has Suncor peaked around these levels for the next couple of years or could it ever get back above $40


I believe it has room to move to $40 but it may take a year as they pay down debt and increase dividends to shareholders. Perhaps even share buybacks too. It takes a larger integrated longer to respond than the smaller pure upstream E&P companies.

Whether it will get above $40 on a sustained basis is an open question. There is not much room in Canada for substantial increased oil production growth so it really comes down to very modest production growth through production optimizations and most of all, margin increases. There are simply too many headwinds (carbon taxes and fuel substitution) for investors to project significant growth in the oil business. It may well become just another income stock in 2-4 years.


----------



## stephen clark

AltaRed said:


> I believe it has room to move to $40 but it may take a year as they pay down debt and increase dividends to shareholders. Perhaps even share buybacks too. It takes a larger integrated longer to respond than the smaller pure upstream E&P companies.
> 
> Whether it will get above $40 on a sustained basis is an open question. There is not much room in Canada for substantial increased oil production growth so it really comes down to very modest production growth through production optimizations and most of all, margin increases. There are simply too many headwinds (carbon taxes and fuel substitution) for investors to project significant growth in the oil business. It may well become just another income stock in 2-4 years.





AltaRed said:


> I believe it has room to move to $40 but it may take a year as they pay down debt and increase dividends to shareholders. Perhaps even share buybacks too. It takes a larger integrated longer to respond than the smaller pure upstream E&P companies.
> 
> Whether it will get above $40 on a sustained basis is an open question. There is not much room in Canada for substantial increased oil production growth so it really comes down to very modest production growth through production optimizations and most of all, margin increases. There are simply too many headwinds (carbon taxes and fuel substitution) for investors to project significant growth in the oil business. It may well become just another income stock in 2-4 years.





newfoundlander61 said:


> Has Suncor peaked around these levels for the next couple of years or could it ever get back above $40


Suncor,Cenovus,,if oil can hold these prices these companies will make alot of free cash flow,driving share prices higher.


----------



## AltaRed

I agree and it will manifest itself in share buybacks and dividend increases (along with debt repayment). The endpoint is finite though so share price at some point, wherever that is, will stall due to lack of demand growth and hence production growth. Once TMX (end of 2022) and Enbridge Line 3 (end of 2021) are operational, there will be some room for production growth, after which we will see the limits of the Canadian oil industry.

There will come a point that the determining factor for production will be customers, not pipeline space. It is coming, even in America. Just a matter of when. Investors don't particularly like mature industries, or to some extent sunset industries and compressed valuation metrics, e.g. a P/E that doesn't exceed 10 or even 8, will reflect that. These things are real and will become a reality somewhere in the not too distant future.

It doesn't matter whether SU will top out at $35, $40, or $50. It will top out and I am not likely to own a stock that is on a 'leash'. SU will have to re-invent itself into other businesses if it wants to continue to grow.


----------



## doctrine

The oil-less future is coming, but not before we experience a rough go pretty soon with oil supply shortages that may last a decade. It's just a matter of time. Coal prices are at decade+ highs, natural gas prices are surging to decade highs as well. It's a preview of what is coming when oil prices hit all time highs. Or whatever price is required to induce significant demand destruction. 

Of course, oil stocks like Suncor could still remain cheap. But they will be flush with cash that will make 2008 look like hard times, because the cost basis has come down so far. Buying back their shares is really the only way to stay above water.


----------



## peterk

I'm millennial aged, just starting a family... Even under the "aggressive" fantasy schedule of some regions banning sales of gas cars by 2035, that means I can still by a a new gas car right now and run it for 15 years, a new gas or hybrid car in 2034 (maybe I'll buy two then so they last longer) and those cars will be going for me until I'm 60-65 years old... And I'm in the younger half of the population, still driving gas cars into retirement...

So when's that rollover in oil demand going to happen?

Also a likely scenario is that there are lots of PHEVs sold over the next 30 years, at great taxpayer expense directed to the car companies, and then the consumers still put tons of gasoline in them...They'll forget to plug in, won't bother with the home electrical upgrades, or don't have time to wait 45 minutes at a station. I would totally buy a PHEV to get that sweet subsidy, and then never plug it in ever. If I can manage to buy of those in 2049, that'll last me to death, burning gas.


----------



## doctrine

peterk said:


> I'm millennial aged, just starting a family... Even under the "aggressive" fantasy schedule of some regions banning sales of gas cars by 2035, that means I can still by a a new gas car right now and run it for 15 years, a new gas or hybrid car in 2034 (maybe I'll buy two then so they last longer) and those cars will be going for me until I'm 60-65 years old... And I'm in the younger half of the population, still driving gas cars into retirement...
> 
> So when's that rollover in oil demand going to happen?
> 
> Also a likely scenario is that there are lots of PHEVs sold over the next 30 years, at great taxpayer expense directed to the car companies, and then the consumers still put tons of gasoline in them...They'll forget to plug in, won't bother with the home electrical upgrades, or don't have time to wait 45 minutes at a station. I would totally buy a PHEV to get that sweet subsidy, and then never plug it in ever. If I can manage to buy of those in 2049, that'll last me to death, burning gas.


In the developed world, likely demand will be flat and/or decline from now on. But the other 6 billion people in the world are going to consume more and cannot afford $50k electric cars, neither can their governments afford subsidies. They can afford $3-4k Tatas though. As such, total world oil demand will reach pre-COVID levels next year and exceed it in 2023, and increase further for at least 10 years. 

The only reason we don't have a supply crisis today is because oil tanks were literally overflowing last year because of the drop in demand. Those tanks are slowly emptying. The inflection point will probably be Q2-Q3 next year, when OPEC can turn on maximum production and the tanks are still emptying. Watch out when that happens.


----------



## AltaRed

I generally concur with Doctrine's viewpoint but not the numbers. I think peak oil demand will occur well before 10 years, with peak production rates well below what many believe. Oil prices could temporarily hit $100 but it will not be long lasting and oil company share prices won't reflect those prices for long. Every investor knows, or should know, the private oil industry will be boxed in taking the brunt of demand decline and eventually squeezed out. Sovereign oil firms will see to it.

I also don't believe 6 billion people will necessarily use more oil. There will be inexpensive EV alternatives and China will be leading the way. India will do likewise. Most people in the developing world don't need range beyond 100km anyway...treks into the wilderness not withstanding. I think we will see more e-bikes and e-motorcycles in developing countries too. 
Example for China 
Tata and Strom for India 
Electric bikes and scooters in India - applicable for a lot of SE Asia and Africa too for that matter.

We in the West are far too insular to understand the revolution that is well underway.


----------



## bgc_fan

doctrine said:


> But the other 6 billion people in the world are going to consume more and cannot afford $50k electric cars, neither can their governments afford subsidies.


How about $4k EVs? How Come GM Makes These Cheap Hong Guang EV Only For China? | MotorBiscuit

Obviously it doesn't meet everyone's need, but can cover enough people's requirements.


----------



## kcowan

AltaRed said:


> ...
> We in the West are far too insular to understand the revolution that is well underway.


In related news, Apple produces dual SIM iPhones for only the China market; The SIM card slot has one each on the top and bottom.


----------



## bgc_fan

kcowan said:


> In related news, Apple produces dual SIM iPhones for only the China market; The SIM card slot has one each on the top and bottom.


It's too bad there isn't much availability for dual sim phones in Canada. Speaks to the insular part as dual sim phones are much more useful for people who like traveling.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

I'm done with oil stocks. I think these companies will struggle if they don't re-invent themselves. Oil may remain for some time, but we cannot deny the new wave of alternative fuel/electrification going strong. Electric vehicles are here to stay. Technology is advancing at record speeds - its only a matter of time that gas vehicles become obsolete.


----------



## AltaRed

Mortgage u/w said:


> I'm done with oil stocks. I think these companies will struggle if they don't re-invent themselves. Oil may remain for some time, but we cannot deny the new wave of alternative fuel/electrification going strong. Electric vehicles are here to stay. Technology is advancing at record speeds - its only a matter of time that gas vehicles become obsolete.


Commodities are cyclicals, i.e. trades, not buy and holds. Good money can be made from them but one has to really understand the cycles, and in oil especially, subject to the whims of OPEC+. A number of folks here have done well in this sector but it takes staying power and discipline....and I might add, luck too.


----------



## sags

Canadian oil exports were the largest component of the $3 billion trade surplus Canada just posted.

I don't think we are ready to throw in the towel on oil just yet. 

Maybe in a few years, but for now.....make hay while the sun shines.


----------



## investor65

Mortgage u/w said:


> I'm done with oil stocks.


I said the exact same thing a few months ago lol.
Now that I've made back my losses and done more research, I think energy is a good place to be for the next 5+ years.
Gonna cautiously add a variety of energy shares.
SU looks dirt cheap, and I believe they'll raise their dividend.

Edit: Can someone shed light on why SU is so cheap compared to CNQ? I realize the latter has a higher div which wasn't cut and it has more natural gas exposure. Is that it? Better CEO in Murray Edwards?


----------



## doctrine

CNQ has a premium likely because they are not making any mistakes. They also grew considerably through huge acquisitions bought at big discounts, whereas Suncor has been investing more capital like in Fort Hills at very high prices and it is still not fully operational and this is what 8 years later? So, Suncor is a little spotty and CNQ is nearly perfect. But Suncor hasn't taken on new projects so they really just need to straighten out their own house and the stock should move back up. Both are good investments but I think Suncor is going to double before CNQ. 

Suncor is technically looking very good now and at 2-3 month highs in a seasonally weak period whereas the index is not quite breaking out yet.


----------



## zinfit

doctrine said:


> CNQ has a premium likely because they are not making any mistakes. They also grew considerably through huge acquisitions bought at big discounts, whereas Suncor has been investing more capital like in Fort Hills at very high prices and it is still not fully operational and this is what 8 years later? So, Suncor is a little spotty and CNQ is nearly perfect. But Suncor hasn't taken on new projects so they really just need to straighten out their own house and the stock should move back up. Both are good investments but I think Suncor is going to double before CNQ.
> 
> Suncor is technically looking very good now and at 2-3 month highs in a seasonally weak period whereas the index is not quite breaking out yet.


CNQ and Suncor are quite different in some respects. Suncor has a big finger in refining and retail. They are Canada's version of Exxon or Chevron. CNQ is mainly a primary producer. CNQ has a large investment in the oil sands but it has a large investment in conventional oil and gas as well. Suncor less so in conventional oil and gas.


----------



## james4beach

Suncor shows a forward P/E of 7.4 right now, suggesting it's pretty damn cheap.

But I wonder if their forward guidance can be relied upon. As you can see in this release, Suncor is assuming $97 WTI oil in 2022 which seems like an optimistic assumption to me. I'm curious what others think.


----------



## doctrine

You can see my running commentary in this thread over the last 2 years has been consistent. If anything, oil inventories are dropping faster now than any time in the last 2 years. Suncor's assumption is at best very conservative. In fact, they were assuming some ridiculous number like $55 until very recently. It likely prevented them from raising their dividend above 2020 levels for longer than was necessary, but they are back on track. Suncor's forward P/E is easily 5 or less depending on your assumptions.


----------



## londoncalling

The gleeful Eric Nuttal mentioned the probability of $150 -$180 a barrel by fall. His statement was that until we see money go into capex the price will climb. Even then it takes years for new production to come online. It doesn't look like the war in Ukraine will see resolve anytime soon. As long as that continues price will stay high. However, I am starting to see a lot of toys (boats, RVs, 5th wheels etc.) for sale. Those that have money will travel/play no matter the cost after being cooped up for the past couple years. That should keep a floor under oil prices. Also, the EV market disruption will not be immediate. Still a lot of ICE out there and other uses for oil beyond gasoline.


----------



## doctrine

Some analysts are suggesting that sustained $180 oil is the price that would level out supply and demand, whether or not that causes a recession. Currently at $120 but refining margins are $60 or higher - implying today's demand could already support an oil price above $150 if refining margins were just an "abnormally high" $30.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> Some analysts are suggesting that sustained $180 oil is the price that would level out supply and demand, whether or not that causes a recession. Currently at $120 but refining margins are $60 or higher - implying today's demand could already support an oil price above $150 if refining margins were just an "abnormally high" $30.


Wouldn't surprise me at all to see oil double. Oil seems incredibly cheap for the utility we get out of it.

But anyway I don't want to make wild guesses at oil prices. Thanks for your earlier comment about Suncor's assumptions. Seems like a safe estimate to say their forward P/E is somewhere between 5 and 9. Either way, this is a cheap stock.

I'm long XEG


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## zinfit

most energy stocks will pay off all debt in 2022. In 2023 most will have no debt and will have 30 % plus FCF. and will be using that to buy 50 % back stocks and paying out the balance to shareholders . Can anyone explain the downside?


----------



## james4beach

zinfit said:


> Can anyone explain the downside?


The Chinese economy is slowing, and the US could enter a recession if there's a change of fortunes. So global demand could plummet.

The war could end, and oil markets could bounce back to normal. Maybe the price of oil could fall a lot in this kind of scenario.

The sharp increase in interest rates and QT could even trigger some kind of financial crisis. You might recall that there was a similar energy & commodities scare in 2007/2008 right before all markets crashed. Oil went through the roof, and speculators aggressively pushed oil contracts higher, right before everything crashed.

I'm not saying that will happen but there are clearly risks. Nothing is a sure thing. Commodities could weaken, and people buying now could be buying at the peak.


----------



## zinfit

james4beach said:


> The Chinese economy is slowing, and the US could enter a recession if there's a change of fortunes. So global demand could plummet.
> 
> The war could end, and oil markets could bounce back to normal. Maybe the price of oil could fall a lot in this kind of scenario.
> 
> The sharp increase in interest rates and QT could even trigger some kind of financial crisis. You might recall that there was a similar energy & commodities scare in 2007/2008 right before all markets crashed. Oil went through the roof, and speculators aggressively pushed oil contracts higher, right before everything crashed.
> 
> I'm not saying that will happen but there are clearly risks. Nothing is a sure thing. Commodities could weaken, and people buying now could be buying at the peak.m,.


yes but even if China slows with the drop of covid restrictions is a still a plus. Russia backs off? doesn't change the sanctions . Do energy companies increase production ? lot luck for that one. Does Trudeau back off from anti fossil fuel policies? do I have to answer that one.


----------



## Gumball

zinfit said:


> most energy stocks will pay off all debt in 2022. In 2023 most will have no debt and will have 30 % plus FCF. and will be using that to buy 50 % back stocks and paying out the balance to shareholders . Can anyone explain the downside?


I agree with you the fundamentals make sense - the article below is what worries me, as do the Biden and Trudeau socialist governments that would be foaming at the mouth to replicate Bojos move...


*U.K. introduces temporary 'windfall tax' of 25% on oil and gas profits*



https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/britain-gas-oil-tax-1.6466747


----------



## londoncalling

As EU nations ween itself off Russian energy, they will be replacing some of it but they will also make a huge shift to renewable energy to fill the gap. There will likely be further investment in renewables. Smart oil companies are already making that shift over putting the money into oil capex. 

As @Gumball has noted the government is often a wild card in its ability to disrupt fundamentals. Many provinces are offering temporary tax relief. Alberta will have a windfall year but Ontario will need to find replacement revenue.


----------



## AltaRed

There is a limit to how fast renewables can pick up the slack. Activists and governments either have not thought this through or their ideology is clouding their judgement. Renewables are having a tough 2022 because they cannot get product, e.g. turbine blades, solar arrays, etc, etc.


----------



## damian13ster

The investment in renewables is precisely why oil prices will be massive next couple of years and precisely why FCF yields of 20%+ are starting.
They won't invest in Capex since governments are actively working against investments - nothing to do but ride that cash cow and return all the profits to shareholders.
Britain's windfall tax already had major companies slash Capex in UK. Stable tax jurisdictions are a must for investments. The smaller companies that are in a single country/geographical areas are much more exposed to such risk, but major corporations will do well


----------



## londoncalling

My statement was directed to the medium term and about capex investment in general. The oilcos have done a great job in debt repayment and share buybacks and have not gotten silly with their dividend policy. If oil prices hold they will have an abundance of cash. This poses both a threat and an opportunity. Those that mismanage the capital will be punished and those the execute will survive the next downcycle. I think some of that capital will go into energy diversification. Both the transition from Russian supply and the move to energy replacement will take time. The unfortunate part is consumers will pay more at the pumps during that time. The good news for energy producing companies (and their shareholders) and regions as they will benefit from the higher prices. Like most things it is a tight rope walk. Countries that are too punitive in their taxation policy will forego the opportunity for full participation.


----------



## damian13ster

There is absolutely no point for oil companies to invest in renewables at this point, other than greenwashing.
Raw material prices are very high - and 'green' energy has massive demand for raw materials.
The electric network is not ready to take in the extra capacity from PV and wind power. More and more people who invested in small PV installations are now tackling that issue.
It is simply better to wait couple of years or a decade, when ROI will be much higher from such transition.

I want them to invest more into carbon capture, into electrolysis as a way to recover energy (from flaring, for example), etc. Investment into batteries, solar panels at this point in time simply makes no sense until the issues above are solved or better technology comes along


----------



## zinfit

damian13ster said:


> There is absolutely no point for oil companies to invest in renewables at this point, other than greenwashing.
> Raw material prices are very high - and 'green' energy has massive demand for raw materials.
> The electric network is not ready to take in the extra capacity from PV and wind power. More and more people who invested in small PV installations are now tackling that issue.
> It is simply better to wait couple of years or a decade, when ROI will be much higher from such transition.
> 
> I want them to invest more into carbon capture, into electrolysis as a way to recover energy (from flaring, for example), etc. Investment into batteries, solar panels at this point in time simply makes no sense until the issues above are solved or better technology comes along


I would like to invest in modular nuclear power if governments and society would get off their rearends. May-be a swing to CPC and Republicans might show some real movement on this front. We are deceiving ourselves if we think we can make serious progress on reducing CO2 without a major reliance on nuclear.


----------



## AltaRed

It is likely going to take the collective (aggregate) effort of the major oil sands producers (Fort Mac and Cold Lake) to support the first modular nuclear power installation (anchor tenants so to speak). It could be justified simply from the increasing cost of natural gas as fuel for their operations. I don't see a current electrical utility putting up their hands willing to do this any time soon.


----------



## damian13ster

There was a bit of a growing support to nuclear recently, but it will be quickly extinguished. 
An improvement in attitude to nuclear power was very quickly followed with increase in media publicity, netflix shows, etc. that show nuclear in negative light.

nevertheless, I have not yet heard of any oil company entering nuclear energy, nor have I heard of any of them (including Suncor) indicate any interest of doing that. 

There were however solar and wind projects, although Suncor is not leading the charge


----------



## AltaRed

I am not suggesting Suncor or any of the oil sands producers actually own and operate modular nuclear power plants, but to be the anchor long term contracts so the plant could be financed by an enterprising entity. Same as is done for major pipeline projects. Someone somewhere, e.g. Brookfield Infrastructure, should see this as an opportunity


----------



## zinfit

AltaRed said:


> I am not suggesting Suncor or any of the oil sands producers actually own and operate modular nuclear power plants, but to be the anchor long term contracts so the plant could be financed by an enterprising entity. Same as is done for major pipeline projects. Someone somewhere, e.g. Brookfield Infrastructure, should see this as an opportunity


May-be a partnership with TC Energy, the large energy players, the Alberta government and someone like Brookfield ? Gates is a big believer in modular nuclear power . Get him involved ?


----------



## Money172375

Down 6.5% at the open


----------



## zinfit

Money172375 said:


> Down 6.5% at the open


sentiment has certainly turned on the energy stocks . They start reporting earnings in early August. Even at current prices they are a giant cash flow machine. I guess the market anticipates a recession and a pile of demand destruction. I just spent a week driving through western Canada and a number of US states. I saw no shortage of vehicles and traffic. It seems that Canadians and Americans are just paying fuel prices which Europe has been paying for decades. The free ride is over.


----------



## investor65

I still think energy is the best place to put your money for the next 1 to 2 years.
But is anyone concerned about a windfall tax by Lib/NDP alliance? They did it to the banks, surely they'll do it to energy companies which they hate.
Also, Biden could reimpose an oil export ban.
For this reason, I'm in BNO (Brent oil etf) and not in any other energy stocks right now.
I believe the world is headed to an energy shortage crisis due to chronic underinvestment due to the ESG scam. Left wing policies are not just foolish, they're dangerous.


----------



## zinfit

investor65 said:


> I still think energy is the best place to put your money for the next 1 to 2 years.
> But is anyone concerned about a windfall tax by Lib/NDP alliance? They did it to the banks, surely they'll do it to energy companies which they hate.
> Also, Biden could reimpose an oil export ban.
> For this reason, I'm in BNO (Brent oil etf) and not in any other energy stocks right now.
> I believe the world is headed to an energy shortage crisis due to chronic underinvestment due to the ESG scam. Left wing policies are not just foolish, they're dangerous.


If they want a big blowup in Alberta/SK these idiots are welcome to it. It would be a stupid policy. If you want lower prices create an environment that encourages investment and increased production. That is the only pathway to lower prices.


----------



## damian13ster

investor65 said:


> I still think energy is the best place to put your money for the next 1 to 2 years.
> But is anyone concerned about a windfall tax by Lib/NDP alliance? They did it to the banks, surely they'll do it to energy companies which they hate.
> Also, Biden could reimpose an oil export ban.
> For this reason, I'm in BNO (Brent oil etf) and not in any other energy stocks right now.
> I believe the world is headed to an energy shortage crisis due to chronic underinvestment due to the ESG scam. Left wing policies are not just foolish, they're dangerous.


If you see the 2 year bull market for energy then you are better off to invest in company like Shell that has diverse sources of oil.
North American producers are tempting, but the prices here are much lower than in Europe. Still, cash flow yield at 20% in some cases is juicy.

Don't really like BNO. If oil price stays where it is, you get return of 0. Meanwhile you will get plenty of free cash from energy producers


----------



## investor65

damian13ster said:


> If you see the 2 year bull market for energy then you are better off to invest in company like Shell that has diverse sources of oil.
> North American producers are tempting, but the prices here are much lower than in Europe. Still, cash flow yield at 20% in some cases is juicy.
> 
> Don't really like BNO. If oil price stays where it is, you get return of 0. Meanwhile you will get plenty of free cash from energy producers


True. I would much prefer to be in energy stocks. But what do you think about the possibility of windfall taxes by Biden and Trudeau?


----------



## damian13ster

investor65 said:


> True. I would much prefer to be in energy stocks. But what do you think about the possibility of windfall taxes by Biden and Trudeau?


Both of them have tendency to try to hurt their own citizens, so it is a possibility. Quite a remote one though.
I wouldn't make investment decisions based on it, especially since there are few as good of an opportunities in the market currently as energy sector in terms of earnings and cash flow.


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## londoncalling

I don't see Biden doing anything until midterms are over and even then he will have a tough time pushing that legislation through if the Dems were at all serious. In Canada, legislatively it will be easier but I don't think there is much interest aside from rhetoric and anticorporate sentiment. If they tax the energy companies it will drive prices up further and companies will pass that tax on to consumers. It seems to me that one is just taking money from consumers pockets, moving it to the oilcos, then over to the government and then back to consumers. None of which seems to provide any value or net gain to anyone besides bean counters employed to track the circular trail of money flow. The G7 are meeting this week and barring any green announcements by Canada as a result of that meeting (tbh honest I think environment is low on the priority list but will be on the agenda for optics) I don't see the windfall tax that was floated earlier coming to fruition. I also don't see a tax holiday on the horizon for consumers unless fuel prices skyrocket some more after the current pause.


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## londoncalling

Although Suncor has seen a drop in SP of over 20% in less than a month it is still higher than when I sold in March. Comparatively, I added to my CNQ position with the proceeds at $73.71. CNQ closed today at $62.39. So far that has been a bad move. I still am of the opinion that CNQ is a better company. I still expect lots of volatility over the summer for the energy sector and stocks in general.


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## OneSeat

CNQ did quite a bit better than SU for most of the last 12 months but over the last month both have dropped to the same 12 month level (58%-59% increase). Hope you are right about CNQ.

J4B was singing about ARX recently. They were about halfway between the CNQ/SU increases until June but also dropped to the same sort of level since then (54%).

Volatility is an interesting subject - just wish it didn't involve money. But overall I am glad I got out of those dismal asset allocation ETFs.


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## investor65

Long term I'm bullish on energy because of the underinvestment and Putin's invasion.
However, I'm surprised how much the whole sector is down.
Right now, it really looks like WTI and Brent are headed lower. (see Brent oil chart)
I think it will be a great buying opportunity for energy.
Right now I have I have no energy except for small amount of XLE.
Edit: Added chart.


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## gardner

Any opinion on the validity of the pressure on SU by Elliott Investment?



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suncor-deal-activist-investor-elliot-1.6523768



I am not keen on them dropping the retail segment -- the fact they are fully integrated is what attracted me to SU vs CNQ and COS. They always had a profitable retail business to fall back on, and a way to make money on oil even when crude prices suck. What do we think will happen when Elliott gets their way?

Maybe I will have to swap over to Imperial.


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## newfoundlander61

Any opinions on whether Alimentation Couche-Tard could be working on a behind the scenes bid for Suncor's gas stations. Reason for asking is my current holding in SU is a trade more than a long term hold so if this were to happen then a pop in the stock would be likely giving a good opportunity to sell the holding.


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## doctrine

There are so many Petro Canada stations that it would likely require several bidders because of multiple local competition issues. I would be surprised to see a resolution before the end of the year, certainly not before then by any margin. They are just reviewing the situation now and I suspect will have to have a relatively open bidding process.


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## newfoundlander61

doctrine said:


> There are so many Petro Canada stations that it would likely require several bidders because of multiple local competition issues. I would be surprised to see a resolution before the end of the year, certainly not before then by any margin. They are just reviewing the situation now and I suspect will have to have a relatively open bidding process.


Good points you make.


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## londoncalling

I believe @doctrine is correct in that there will be several interested in acquiring these stations. Whomever acquires them may try and sell some of them off or close them down if the owning company has an outlet close by. I am hoping that it creates an opportunity for me to establish a position in Alimenation Couche-Tard.


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## newfoundlander61

I forgot about this company as a possible buyer.

Parkland would consider buying Suncor's retail assets: CEO - BNN Bloomberg


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## peterk

If you didn't notice - Suncor bought back and retired $2.6M worth of shares in Q2. That's 4.4% in one quarter - annualized about 18% of the stock at current prices... A nice little gift for shareholders in the way of juicing future EPS and the implied dividend growth by just keeping payout dollars the same amount.


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## AltaRed

Buying back shares at 'fire sale' prices (meaning lower than enterprise value) is an excellent way of adding shareholder value. As for Suncor's retail gas station network, I am hoping this will blow over. Companies like Parkland and Couche-Tard already have too much pricing power with their large dominance in the marketplace. Regardless, if it does happen, it will be drawn out and messy due to anti-competition concerns about even more concentration. This chart is 3 years old Canadian fuel retailers market share by store numbers | Statista and should be used with caution. For example, Husky's stations went to Federated Cooperatives and Parkland since this chart was generated.


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## fireseeker

peterk said:


> If you didn't notice - Suncor bought back and retired $2.6M worth of shares in Q2.


Typo alert: It is $2.6 billion.


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