# RNX



## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

Anyone riding this rocket? Up 39% as I type this.


----------



## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

Another big day for RNX.


----------



## toad (Mar 15, 2017)

Dilbert said:


> Anyone riding this rocket? Up 39% as I type this.


Yes, I am. Bought in at 0.22 and 0.39

Fingers crossed....


----------



## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

Up 51% this morning on even more good news. Good luck!


----------



## toad (Mar 15, 2017)

Thanks!


----------



## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

I wish I jumped in, early on. At least my wife did. Now I’ll have to be nice to her, I guess.:love_heart:


----------



## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

105% in a day. I’ve never seen anything like it.


----------



## robfordlives (Sep 18, 2014)

Honestly how do people find these things? There are hundreds of dubious stocks on the venture exchange. This is now up 5X from the time it was mentioned. I will continue to hold my dividend stocks that plummet in value daily


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

It appears that the company was digging in the ground in Western Australia and -- a total surprise -- found a huge nugget of gold (they claim, assuming it's not a fraud).

There's now the possibility that there's more gold on their site. If that's the case, the company's value would increase. However if it turns out to be a one-off fluke, then the value (and share price) will plummet.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205558-rnc-minerals-sometimes-blind-squirrel-finds-nugget

Since it's a wild speculation whether or not there's more gold in the ground, buying this stock is just a total gamble on whether there's more gold (or not). I don't see the point in making that bet. Normally I'd say 50/50 odds, however, mining companies and penny stocks *tend to run a bit crooked* which skews your odds of success to less than 50%, IMO. You're also late to the party at this point. The stock has responded so much already that you're at a disadvantage. Buying the day of discovery is one thing. Buying after it's already gone up 10x over many days is entirely something else.

Rough guess, odds of walking away with a profit if you buy today might be something like 1/4. Still better than a lottery ticket, I guess.

It would probably be smarter to apply your money to your asset allocation strategy. Making wild bets like this one, you're generally going to lose over time.


----------



## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

Looks like some profit taking today. It will be interesting to see how it fares over the short and long term.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

james4beach said:


> It appears that the company was digging in the ground in Western Australia and -- a total surprise -- found a huge nugget of gold (they claim, assuming it's not a fraud).
> 
> There's now the possibility that there's more gold on their site. If that's the case, the company's value would increase. However if it turns out to be a one-off fluke, then the value (and share price) will plummet.
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205558-rnc-minerals-sometimes-blind-squirrel-finds-nugget


Just to clarify, what I understand is that this was an in-situ gold intersection encountered within their existing Beta Hunt gold mine - much different than a gold 'nugget' and quite misleading for articles to refer to it as that.
We already know more gold exists (it's an operating gold mine) but caveats as to the extent of the intersection, and the fair share value of the company still apply. Otherwise, as described and pictured, it is an extraordinary 'sweet spot'.
One is reminded of Bre-X, although salting core values is arguably easier than coming up with the gold samples pictured. Presumably an independent party has confirmed their veracity.

Not a sandbox I play in any more but I can understand the excitement.

http://www.rncminerals.com/2018-09-09-New-Discovery-Yields-9-000-ounces-of-High-Grade-Coarse-Gold-from-Single-Cut-at-Beta-Hunt-Mine#assets_all


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Down 36% today. Anyone playing with this stock should be prepared to maybe lose 90% or more.


----------



## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

Well J4B, it’s hanging in there. :satellite:


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Dilbert said:


> Well J4B, it’s hanging in there. :satellite:


Yes, it's still up there at $0.91. So what's your exit strategy? When will you sell and realize your profit?


----------



## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

james4beach said:


> Yes, it's still up there at $0.91. So what's your exit strategy? When will you sell and realize your profit?


I’m not really into it, but my wife bought in. She’s the risk taker in the family! 
I’m just find it interesting to watch. I have never seen a stock move 105% in a day.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Dilbert said:


> I’m not really into it, but my wife bought in. She’s the risk taker in the family!
> I’m just find it interesting to watch. I have never seen a stock move 105% in a day.


It's down 16% today.

Many penny stocks will move like this, it's not all that unusual. Options move like this too. The problem however is that an "investor" who steadily invests in penny stocks or options over say 5 years is almost certain to do worse than just the stock index. These are high risk gambles and it's very hard to get them right, consistently.

You can make money on RNX or any given penny stock if you get lucky, but you can't consistently do that over long periods. That's why passive boring investing methods generally win in the long term.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

Love these tales of resource discovery:

*A deal to sell a failing nickel mine fell through, then they found gold — lots of gold*
_Kevin Small knew something was up, which was why he was driving a pick-up truck into the dark abyss of an Australian mine... A team of his senior colleagues had summoned Small... for reasons they declined to share over the radio system that everyone in the mine used.
_

https://business.financialpost.com/...ell-through-then-they-found-gold-lots-of-gold


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> One is reminded of Bre-X, although salting core values is arguably easier than coming up with the gold samples pictured. Presumably an independent party has confirmed their veracity.



one is def reminded of bre-X. do you believe those pix in the finPost today? do you believe KS flew from canada to australia to break off - with his bare hands - heavy sheets of gold as big as dinner plates from the blasting walls of the mine?

i believe, tinkerbell, honest i do. it's a perfect fin-de-la-boule histoire.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> one is def reminded of bre-X. do you believe those pix in the finPost today? do you believe KS flew from canada to australia to break off - with his bare hands - heavy sheets of gold as big as dinner plates from the blasting walls of the mine?


I think that while uncommon, it is entirely plausible.
The physical occurence of the gold is much different than the supposed core assay values that the Bre-X fraud was based on.
As noted in the article, the extent of these Au concentrations beyond the current sweet spot is much less certain. The stock price may stall now until some delineation results (good or bad) are available.

Some more pics, incl the Perth Mint display here:
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com...n-development-area-at-the-beta-hunt-mine.html

Note: that I am not in any way suggesting purchase of shares of the company.


----------



## Borat (Apr 28, 2017)

humble_pie said:


> one is def reminded of bre-X. do you believe those pix in the finPost today? do you believe KS flew from canada to australia to break off - with his bare hands - heavy sheets of gold as big as dinner plates from the blasting walls of the mine?
> 
> i believe, tinkerbell, honest i do. it's a perfect fin-de-la-boule histoire.


Story says he was already on site.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Borat said:


> Story says he was already on site.




actually the natPost story linked upthread said that Kevin Small, head of mining operations at the Beta Hunt mine in australia, works out of his home in sudbury, canada.



> Every five weeks or so, he flies from his home in Sudbury, Ont., to a remote southwestern corner of Australia. From the airport, he drives two hours through the rugged Australian outback



.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Amazingly, this is still up since the first post of this thread. However, it's now down 50% from its highs. Here's the chart: http://schrts.co/MKAKj5

The bars at the bottom of the chart are volume. Notice in the first few days, there is no volume (no popular interest or attention). The first big price gains, to the tune of several hundreds of %, occur very fast. As the story gets hyped and circulated, more buyers come on board and this is reflected in the volume.

The highest volume, indicating the most interest & activity, occurred around September 24 coinciding with the third post in this thread from a totally new member to the message board. This is the point at which the most new (latecomers) try to join the party in the hopes of quick riches.

And in typical penny stock style, that also marked the top. Since reaching a little over $1.10, the stock has steadily declined. It probably won't be long before it heads back to $0.40 and ultimately towards $0.10.

If you join a penny stock to ride a hype, you should be confident that you're doing it very early in the pump & dump life cycle. If you're already seeing a lot of high volume gains, it's probably too late. My guess is that most people who heard about this "amazing new gold discovery" probably bought above $0.40 and a considerable number of people bought above $0.70.

That's penny stocks for you.


----------



## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

The classic pump and dump


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

No, not classic pump and dump - classic volatile junior mining company trading on speculation after encouraging discovery results.
Still a speculative penny stock and far from a sure thing, but by definition not an example of a classic pump and dump.


----------



## toad (Mar 15, 2017)

Drilling results released Tuesday. Wouldn't let me post the link as I do not have enough posts. It's at rncminerals.com


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

RNX has steadily declined after that initial excitement and big rally. On the stock chart, you can see bursts of high volume selling activity over the months. Currently $0.38

It should be noted that by the time we started discussing this in some detail, the price gains were done. Anyone buying after that initial (very brief) excitement now has a loss. It's very rare to "get in on" a scenario like this and walk away successfully with a profit.

Not a good way to make money in the stock market.


----------



## toad (Mar 15, 2017)

I am just wondering if you have done any research on this company? From your 1st posts it seems you think this is a new exploration company and they just stumbled into this gold. That is not the case at all. This is a 20 year old nickel mine with numerous high grade gold hits over the years. The big find when the SP soared was a targeted find. 

They mined over 70k oz of gold in 2018 and they stopped mining in the fall to start the drilling to map out the deposit.
Have almost completed a 40 000 m drilling campaign with numerous high grade hits and lots of 3 - 4g/ton hits.
Have just purchased their own gold processing mill nearby. ( Guessing they like the results of the drilling. )
Will release a updated R/E in June which will show a 800k - 1m oz gold deposit.
Plus will be restarting the nickel production.

The only negative I can see is the large float.

Would be interested in your DD if you have the time or interest.

Thanks


----------



## toad (Mar 15, 2017)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...pecimens-unearthed-at-beta-hunt-mine/11174958


----------



## toad (Mar 15, 2017)

http://www.rncminerals.com/2019-06-17-RNC-Minerals-Added-to-MVIS-R-Global-Junior-Gold-Miners-Index


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Yes I'd be happy to share some of my research:

a) It's a penny stock and has a market cap of $284 million. It's not even a big enough company to qualify as a small cap.
b) it's incredibly volatile. In the span of one year, the price has ranged from 0.07 to 1.18, which is off-the-charts volatile
c) _historically_, penny stocks like this one are usually bad investments

On these facts alone, I would never buy something like this. There are far more promising stocks in Canada with far higher chances of being profitable investments.

There are extremely serious issues in the financial situation of the company. They don't have any retained earnings and instead show barely positive equity. This creates a risky situation where the company may in fact be worthless (meaning the stock would go to zero).

The company's current liabilities (amounts they must pay out quite soon) of $28 million exceed its current assets of $14 million, a situation called "negative working capital".

The latest financial statements include this note, which sums it all up:



> As at March 31, 2019, the Corporation had negative working capital of $14.2 million, an accumulated deficit
> of $203.9 million and had a net loss of $3.3 million for the period then ended. Working capital included
> cash and cash equivalents of $0.8 million. *These circumstances indicate the existence of material
> uncertainties that cast significant doubt upon the Corporation’s ability to continue as a going concern* and
> ...


I'll translate that language: there's a strong chance the company may collapse. Yes of course it's possible that things could turn around, maybe they suddenly start making money and can bolster their financial condition.

However, if they do not, this company will collapse and the equity will become worthless. It's an extremely risky company to own and they say it quite clearly right in their own financial statements.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

And since you asked for research, here's more from the Management Discussion & Analysis for Q1:

As at March 31, 2019 the Corporation had cash and cash equivalents of $0.8 million. Management estimates
that these funds will not be sufficient to fund the advancement of exploration properties, Beta Hunt Mine
operations and general and administrative expenses for the ensuing twelve months. Until such time that
financing becomes available on acceptable terms, the Corporation has taken action to limit the ongoing
exploration and evaluation work and reduce its operating costs. *Accordingly, these conditions indicate the
existence of material uncertainties that cast significant doubt upon the Corporation’s ability to continue as a
going concern*.​
Translation: RNX aka RNC is barely viable and there's a significant chance the company may collapse.

The independent auditor (PWC) makes a point in their Q4 audit to draw attention to this issue. If you're a shareholder, you should really pay attention to the notes from the auditor. I don't know how much more clearly the point can be made.

Note that, even though the company claims to see promising evidence at their Beta Hunt Mine, as the management has written above, they will struggle to operate that mine without getting more financing. A week ago they just borrowed another $35 million, 1 year senior secured loan at 10% interest rate + fees which will fund some more operations, for a while, but also burden their company with more debt load.

This is called "going for broke". Yes, it might work out and they might be able to borrow enough, and turn their financial condition around. This will require a streak of luck: (1) actual mining results, not flashy press releases (2) an easy credit environment (3) continuing faith and generosity by investors and lenders.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

It might be worth adding that as the price of gold rises, the potential profitability of their latest mine increases, as does the likelihood of acquiring more (required) financing. RNX seems to be benefiting from this at the moment.

One potential approach to investing in this might be to wait until the company strengthens to the point that management no longer has to warn about potential imminent collapse.

Not sure why I'm paying so much attention to this. There's no way I would ever buy this.


----------



## toad (Mar 15, 2017)

Here's another flashy press release.

http://www.rncminerals.com/2019-06-...e-Western-Flanks-Zone-at-Beta-Hunt-to-710-koz


----------



## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

Very interesting to watch. Thanks.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Except for a sharp jump higher around when this thread was created, RNX has steadily declined in price over the year. Currently at 0.38

I don't see what's so interesting about this stock. Here is the performance over 1 year, the time frame since this thread was opened


RNXRNC Minerals-52%MNTGold bullion+32%XGDGold miners sector+56%

Even though gold is performing _very_ strongly, RNX has been going nowhere.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Are any of you early speculators still long this stock? It now trades as KRR.

Counting from the first post of this thread, the total returns are:

KRR (previously RNX): 87.5%
MNT: 84.0%
XGD: 148.4%

It's certainly turned around and is at least showing a gain, but is underperforming the gold mining sector index average (XGD). Perhaps it would be a good time to sell KRR and rotate into a better (more stable) long term gold investment, if your intention is to stick with gold in the long term.

This company got _very_ lucky. As I wrote about earlier, they were operating right on the brink and just hoping for gold prices to take off. And gold prices did, so things turned out OK. But they could have just easily become a disaster, and this could have become a worthless stock. I don't know who wants to "invest" this way and I certainly would not recommend this kind of gambling.


----------



## toad (Mar 15, 2017)

Now would be a terrible time to sell.

As I said months ago, the coarse gold find was a targeted find. They know it's there. The just restarted mining in the area as they wanted to renegotiate the royalty with MMX.

That's done.

Eric Sprott just upped his holdings by 26 million shares.

Lots of good news coming.

This stock is very undervalued.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

toad said:


> Now would be a terrible time to sell.
> 
> As I said months ago, the coarse gold find was a targeted find. They know it's there. The just restarted mining in the area as they wanted to renegotiate the royalty with MMX.
> 
> ...


Wouldn't the market price in all of that? Are you the first person to figure out all of this?

What do you mean "lots of good news coming". Do you have insider information?


----------

