# Contest - predict the S&P500 tomorrow



## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Ok, there has been enough of the endless chatter about what will happen in the markets tomorrow. I'd like to see some actual predictions and I thought it would be fun to have a little contest.

Contest:

Pick the % change of the S&P 500 at close. 
Pick the largest % change of the S&P 500 during the day.
Pick the % change the market opens at [edit - this is new]

Rules:

No ranges - only actual single numbers will qualify.
No analysis - just the numbers.

Winner gets a used Ferrari graciously donated by Cdn Cap (one of his older ones) and the loser gets a free copy of "Day trading for dummies". 

My picks:

% change at close will be 0%.
Largest % change during the day will be -3%.
Market will open 2% down.


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## Abha (Jun 26, 2011)

Up 1.4% @ close

Biggest drop -1.7%


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Market open: -1.3%
Largest % Change in the Day: -2.4%
Close: -0.8%


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

S&P closes down -1%
Midday swings down -1.8%


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## balk (Dec 6, 2010)

1. Open, Down 0.8%
2. Max, Down 1.3%
3. Close down 0.5%.


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

Wow, I hope you guys are right.

Here is what I think.

1. Open, Down 2%
2. Max, Down 5%
3. Close down 2.5%.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

% change at close = -1%

Largest % change during the day = -4%

Your comment made me laugh Mike, "...enough of the endless chatter". Tell me how you really feel? 

Is this the Ferrari CC bought from the set of Magnum PI? 


Chat soon.


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## slacker (Mar 8, 2010)

The ECB caved, and decided that they'll buy some bonds afterall.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-crisis-ecb-idUSTRE7762PE20110807


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Since we are playing a game and not betting real money  here are my predictions:

Open : -0.8% down
Max -ve : -1.2%
Close : +0.1%


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Ok, I've add another category "% change when market opens".


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## Yudansha (May 14, 2011)

Open: -1.5% 
Max: -2%
Close: +.4%


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## Yudansha (May 14, 2011)

Open: -1.5% 
Max: -2%
Close: +.4%


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

1160 close, -3.4%


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## Mockingbird (Apr 29, 2009)

Futures opened:

S&P -30
Nas -50
Dow -280
Gold @ 1700


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

MB, where are you going to see these futures so early?

I can see a current gold price of $1689, but I can't get any data on the indexes. Would you mind sharing where you find this information?


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Try this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

And the stock futures make me want to puke!


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

This is the site MockingBird referred us to  http://futures.quote.com/quotes/futures/


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## Mockingbird (Apr 29, 2009)

KaeJS said:


> MB, where are you going to see these futures so early?
> 
> I can see a current gold price of $1689, but I can't get any data on the indexes. Would you mind sharing where you find this information?


I trade them. So I get the live data feed as well.

MB


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Thank you Jungle and ddkay.

I always use the Bloomberg one you have mentioned, Jungle, but I think now I will use a combination of both. 

I like how the other has the futures of everything right on the same page in plan view. Very helpful.

Thank you both.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Mockingbird said:


> I trade them. So I get the live data feed as well.
> 
> MB


I figured that must have been the case because I would have been on 15 minute delayed data. Thanks.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

That was a new link you posted for me, I never knew that live cattle was traded on the futures market!


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Four Pillars said:


> Winner gets a used Ferrari graciously donated by Cdn Cap (one of his older ones) and the loser gets a free copy of "Day trading for dummies".


S&P close: 0.5%
Largest % down: -2%
At open: -2%

Sorry guys, I'm gonna win, so I'm keeping that phantom Ferrari. LOL.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Open: -2% 
Max: -6%
Close: - .5%


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## Zenzin (Mar 12, 2011)

S&P Open: -2.6%
S&P Max: -4%
S&P Close: -1.9%


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## Mike59 (May 22, 2010)

Perhaps I'm more pessimistic than most: 

Open: -1.5%
Max: -4%
Close: -3.25%

Added the 2nd decimal place in case it's needed for a tie-breaker


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

S&P Open: -1.6%
S&P Max: -3.2%
S&P Close: -0.2%


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

S&P close: 0.75%
Largest % down: -3.15%
At open: -2.2%


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

S&P Open: -1.7%
S&P Max: -3.0%
S&P Close: -0.45%


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Open: 1170
Min: 1140
Close: 1160


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

open -1.8%

mid day -.7%

Bernanke interview at 3pm

close -4.2%


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

Open -6 , max. -7.5 , close -6.5


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Open -2.2%
Max low -2.2%
Close -1.6%


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

dogleg said:


> Open -6 , max. -7.5 , close -6.5


Holy crap that's bearish and negative.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

S&P Open: -2.40%
S&P Max: -3.25%
S&P Close: -1.35%


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## Potato (Apr 3, 2009)

S&P Open: -2.5%
S&P Max: -5%
S&P Close: -5%


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

1. Open, Down 0.5%
2. Max, Down 6.3%
3. Close down 5.2%
*


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Ok here are all the entrants - hopefully I copied them all correctly.

First award will go to the closest prediction for the market open change.

Name,Market open,Market close,Largest change in day
Four Pillars,-2.00%,0.00%,-3.00%
Abha,,1.40%,-1.70%
KaeJS,-1.30%,-0.80%,-2.40%
Jungle,,-1.00%,-1.80%
Balk,-0.80%,-0.50%,-1.30%
al42,-2.00%,-2.50%,-5.00%
Financial Cents,,-1.00%,-4.00%
Harold Crump,-0.80%,0.10%,-1.20%
Yudansha,-1.50%,0.40%,-2.00%
ddkay,,-3.40%,
Cdn Cap,-2.00%,0.50%,-2.00%
fatcat,-2.00%,-0.50%,-6.00%
Zenzin,-2.60%,-1.90%,-4.00%
Mike59,-1.50%,-3.25%,-4.00%
clovis8,-1.60%,-0.20%,-3.20%
marina628,-2.20%,0.75%,-3.15%
gibor,-1.70%,-0.45%,-3.00%
Argonaut,-2.45%,-3.25%,-4.95%
Eder,-1.80%,-4.20%,-0.70%
dogleg,-6.00%,-6.50%,-7.50%
liquidfinance,-2.20%,-1.60%,-2.20%
avrex,-2.40%,-1.35%,-3.25%
Potato,-2.50%,-5.00%,-5.00%
Addy,-0.50%,-5.20%,-6.30%


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

TSX down by 359 two mins after opening.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Addy said:


> TSX down by 359 two mins after opening.


I'm not sure how to determine how much the market is down at open. It looks like the S&P500 starting point was just slightly below the Friday close and it dropped quickly. 

Any thoughts?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

On Google Finance, if you look at the chart just for today, it will show you the index value, date and time.
At index value at 9:30 is what you need.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

S&P 500 opened at 1,198
Previous close 1,199

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX:IND


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Sounds good. Market open drop was 0.0%

And the winner of the "market open" category is Addy who predicted a drop of -0.5%.

Congratulations Addy - A dozen red roses are on their way to your house.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

nice job 4 Pillars.

on a day like today i usually operate on the belief that some quotes including major indices are wrong. Just too much volume & frenzy for all serves to keep up.

so that almost-no-change s&p opening might turn out to be a little funny


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

but addy should have the roses as a housewarming gift


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

The true opening looked to be about 1175. I agree with humble about the servers. Questrade has had numerous problems today. Kicking me out of the platform, quotes not appearing, etc.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

@Argonaut - I think you are correct. However, the roses have already been mailed.

I'm not going to count that category in the overall standings anyway.

I just placed 4 buys in 3 different Questrade accounts. 3 of them had no problem, but for one of them the trading platform wouldn't load properly. I logged out of everything, logged back in and then it worked ok.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

nobody watched BNN this morning at opening?

There was a rule 48 evoked that worked against the volitilaty of the markets.
I dont completely understand it but it is why the drop was too bad this morning.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904140604576496010452720404.html?mod=googlenews_wsj


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Four Pillars said:


> Congratulations Addy - A dozen red roses are on their way to your house.


Horray! Hopefully this is the start of a winning streak for me!  Humble is right though, we have packers in our house as I type packing stuff up for the big move this week. Pity I won't be able to keep a close eye on the market while we're on the four day trek


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Holy bbleep, I was negative for today but didn't expect DJ to be down over 600 points and the day is not over yet ;-)

Next few weeks/months will be very interesting.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Ok, here are the winners:

Market change on open - Addy guessed -0.5% and came closest to the actual drop of 0%. 

Biggest market change during the day - Addy predicted -6.30% which was the closest to the actual largest change of -6.68%. Addy gets another dozen roses - this time in white.

Market close - Dogleg had the most pessimistic prediction (big surprise) of -6.5% which was pretty close to the actual 6.66% drop. 

Overall winner - I calculated everyone's cumulative absolute difference in the market close and large change category (I don't think the market open value was valid) and the person with the lowest number is the winner. You had to predict both numbers to qualify.

ie if you were +1% off on the market close prediction and -2% off on the largest change prediction, you get a value of 3%.

The winner was Dogleg who was only off by a total of 1% on the two predictions.
2nd place was Addy and 3rd place goes to Potato.

Dogleg, please contact Cdn Cap and he will drive the Ferrari out to Vancouver for you.

The worst overall score was Harold Crump who predicted very flat markets and was off by a cumulative total of 12.22% and wins a copy of Day Trading for Dummies.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

So, what is prediction for Tue?


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## v_tofu (Apr 16, 2009)

gibor said:


> So, what is prediction for Tue?


-%25

QE3 here we come!


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

v_tofu, the exchange circuit breakers won't let the market fall more than 10% per hour or 30% per day. It's more likely if intense sell offs like today continue they will put trading on hiatus.


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

Thanks FP. Just park that car on the street . A new red convertible will go well with my silver Caddy and the white Lincoln in the driveway. They may all be up for sale if the market doesn't turn around. Anyway its only money !


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Four Pillars said:


> The worst overall score was Harold Crump who predicted very flat markets and was off by a cumulative total of 12.22% and wins a copy of Day Trading for Dummies.


Wooohoooo...I get the better prize, IMHO.
Who needs a silly car that will lose 30% in 1 year, when I can have a book on trading that can make me 30% every day 

FP, you need the mailing address I assume...oh wait, was this for real?


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## JC66 (Apr 6, 2011)

Nikkei 225 is down almost 400 points, gold is up, tomorrow will be another 4-5% down again


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