# Provincial COVID differences



## james4beach

Data source: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/

There are obviously many differences, but I am looking at the daily new case history (how many new cases over time) to get an idea of whether we seem to be getting control on this situation. What I see under Daily New Cases is a huge difference between provinces, where it looks like most provinces have a pretty stable number over time. The only provinces where daily cases are still increasing are: *Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec*

ON and QC obviously have the largest populations in the country and they neighbour each other (cross-contaminate). Large populations are harder to manage.

Any insights on all this? I see the numbers as hopeful. BC and AB are large provinces too, with large populations, and yet they seem to be controlling their spread.


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## andrewf

Ontario looks like it has been more or less constant rate of new infections (so not accelerating). There was a shortage of testing capacity in Ontario so recent high day might just be an artifact of catching up on testing. The rate of new cases in Canada is slowing as you would expect following several weeks of strong social distancing. Now we are waiting for the crest of active cases and the eventual decline.


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## sags

I gave up on trying to keep track of the numbers. It is futile without comprehensive testing anyways. 

The number I am most concerned about is the mortality rate.

They say that half the deaths in Ontario are attributed to nursing homes. I am not sure if that is good news or bad news.

Frankly, I don't even know what the rules are in our city for "social distancing" anymore. It changes all the time.

The rules for nursing homes keeps changing by the hour and yesterday, my wife was handed a piece of thin cloth with a hole on each end for her ears. Then she was told to put a paper towel inside to avoid moisture. The employer bought them at a variety store somewhere.

Today I caught a bit of an announcement on CBC that anyone entering a nursing home had to wear full PPE gear.

Someone should tell the politicians the workers don't even have masks.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Data source: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/
> 
> There are obviously many differences, but I am looking at the daily new case history (how many new cases over time) to get an idea of whether we seem to be getting control on this situation. What I see under Daily New Cases is a huge difference between provinces, where it looks like most provinces have a pretty stable number over time. The only provinces where daily cases are still increasing are: *Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec*
> 
> ON and QC obviously have the largest populations in the country and they neighbour each other (cross-contaminate). Large populations are harder to manage.
> 
> Any insights on all this? I see the numbers as hopeful. BC and AB are large provinces too, with large populations, and yet they seem to be controlling their spread.


There is a nice article on why BC is doing well, and others on why Quebec is doing poorly.
Lots of reasons, but it really comes down to a bit of luck, and the large number of Snowbirds & Spring break travellers in ON & QC.


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## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Any insights on all this? I see the numbers as hopeful. BC and AB are large provinces too, with large populations, and yet they seem to be controlling their spread.


My guesses are poplulation density and how fast/strict provincial rules were put in place.


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## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> There is a nice article on why BC is doing well, and others on why Quebec is doing poorly.
> Lots of reasons, but it really comes down to a bit of luck, and the large number of Snowbirds & Spring break travellers in ON & QC.


Interesting. Yes I agree there is always luck involved. Timing of spring break can indeed be a difference as well and both school and university breaks occur at different times.

But I'll tell you another thing I saw in Cuba, first hand experience at the start of March. When in the hotel lobby, I started having European tourists coming up to me and asking if they could buy some CAD from me. I also had people asking me for hotel tips; how does one book a last minute hotel in, say, Toronto or Montreal?

It happened a few times and I kept thinking, what strange questions. And why does everyone want my CAD.

It took me a few days to figure out what was happening. All the European tourists, with no more direct flights to Europe, were re-booking themselves on the remaining flights .... _to transit through Canada or maybe even stay here for a while!_ It appeared that Toronto and Montreal were the main destinations.

I suspect that many infected Europeans went through YYZ (Ontario) and YUL (Quebec)

I don't know how big a factor this might have been, but I promise you that Italian, French, German tourists, at least from the Caribbean, were coming in droves to Canada.


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## sags

In Ontario, half the deaths are attributed to older nursing homes where they have 4 patients in a room. 

One nursing home has 30 COVID deaths including another one today.

Who puts their family member into a nursing home with 4 to a room ?


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## Longtimeago

Unfortunately, retirement homes will inevitably be harder hit than anywhere except perhaps a hospital.

You have a group of people living in one big 'house' if you will. 
Physical distancing and self-isolating are impossible to achieve. 
You have people coming in from outside frequently. 
The residents are all in the high risk category for serious outcomes if they get the virus.
While government regulated, most are private businesses which has negative implications in terms of what the priorities are.

I get annoyed when I hear our politicians repeatedly saying, 'our senior homes are our highest priority.' It's easy to say the words but I see NO indication that the words are resulting in them DOING anything. Why for example is sags' wife being handed an inadequate mask rather than a government supplied mask? Why if there is a shortage of staff in many of these homes now, are trained staff not be re-directed from hospitals, etc. to protect these most vulnerable FIRST?

They keep talking about an 'iron ring' of protection for these homes. Why then are staff not required to stay on site, 24/7 to stop any chance of the virus being brought into the home? No one in, doesn't just mean no visitors who could bring in the virus. It should be no one in and no one OUT including staff. If it is impractical for staff to 'live-in', then have a shuttle bus taking them between the home and a nearby motel/hotel where they stay in self-isolation when not on duty. THAT is an 'iron ring'.

The real problem as I see it is that they are PRIVATE and as such that is what will always get in the way. After this is all over, that may be a time to look at having all seniors homes become part of our overall Provincial health care systems, just like hospitals are.


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> In Ontario, half the deaths are attributed to older nursing homes where they have 4 patients in a room.
> 
> One nursing home has 30 COVID deaths including another one today.
> 
> Who puts their family member into a nursing home with 4 to a room ?


Where else would you put them?

Honestly, how would you care for the elderly in a cost effective manner?


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## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Where else would you put them?
> 
> Honestly, how would you care for the elderly in a cost effective manner?


In Provincial nursing homes rather than private nursing homes. If we provide 'universal health care' as part of our Provincial services to residents, why does it end when people need to stay in a nursing home rather than in their own home?


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## james4beach

I think public nursing homes (under the healthcare system) are a good idea. What we're seeing here is yet another failure in privatized health care.

Not to mention the safety of the employees. The employees will be safer under well regulated, government-run health care procedures that are an extension of existing hospitals and nursing.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I think public nursing homes (under the healthcare system) are a good idea. What we're seeing here is yet another failure in privatized health care.
> 
> Not to mention the safety of the employees. The employees will be safer under well regulated, government-run health care procedures that are an extension of existing hospitals and nursing.


Of course, we need to spend more tax money.
We're already at a 50% tax rate, covid 19 is going to push that higher, and you want to spend even MORE?
We can't afford it.

Is there really any limit to how much we can tax and spend?
We're already at the point where we can't even let people have a living wage, before we start to tax them to pay for the government.

Enough is enough, the government really needs to get their $#[email protected] together and stick to their basic responsibilities.

They knew about COVID19 in January, and did nothing for months. I agree they might have had trouble closing the borders back them, but they could have done something.


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## cainvest

james4beach said:


> I think public nursing homes (under the healthcare system) are a good idea. What we're seeing here is yet another failure in privatized health care.
> 
> Not to mention the safety of the employees. The employees will be safer under well regulated, government-run health care procedures that are an extension of existing hospitals and nursing.


I don't see private nursing homes as a bad thing but there need to be regulations. Government run usually means excessive waste and/or spending IMO.

Covid-19 should have had the government adjust the needed regulations for those places faster than those for the general public, as in, screening for employees and no visitor access.


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## Money172375

james4beach said:


> Data source: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/
> 
> There are obviously many differences, but I am looking at the daily new case history (how many new cases over time) to get an idea of whether we seem to be getting control on this situation. What I see under Daily New Cases is a huge difference between provinces, where it looks like most provinces have a pretty stable number over time. The only provinces where daily cases are still increasing are: *Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec*
> 
> ON and QC obviously have the largest populations in the country and they neighbour each other (cross-contaminate). Large populations are harder to manage.
> 
> Any insights on all this? I see the numbers as hopeful. BC and AB are large provinces too, with large populations, and yet they seem to be controlling their spread.


I think the size of Canada also plays a part......different areas......BC, central, maritimes are all on different timelines. And while the populations in BC and Alberta are large, they don’t even compare to Ontario. I was surprised that Toronto has more people than the Maritimes, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. I need to finally see the rest of the Canada after all this is done.


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## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> I don't see private nursing homes as a bad thing but there need to be regulations. Government run usually means excessive waste and/or spending IMO.
> 
> Covid-19 should have had the government adjust the needed regulations for those places faster than those for the general public, as in, screening for employees and no visitor access.


There was a major policy failure there, at some homes, they had an outbreak, and didn't even segregate symptomatic COVID patients. The reality is that we don't have the resources for this stuff. The government is too intent on wasting money.

Good news, in my city they decided to "look at the budget" again. Apparently they realized that maybe they didn't need to spend $200k on some chairs, and apparently there are some items they might be able to cut out. Really this crap never belonged in the budget in the first case.

Before we start putting billions of more spending on the books, lets cut out all the junk we don't need.


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## Retired Peasant

Another issue with the LTC staff, is not just that they go home and return, but many of them work in multiple facilities, and even as support for older people still in their own home. Ontario, to my knowledge, still hasn't put a stop to that.


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## ian

What I do not understand is why the curves and the mortality rates are so different between provinces. Looked at the CBC stats today. Ontario and Quebec curves have been going up, up, up. BC, AB, Sask curves have been flatlining. No doubt there will be a scientific explanation after this has passed. Our rural population is a much older population. I would have thought that the maritime provinces would have had a higher mortality rate because of their aging population but it does not appear to be so. Perhaps the smaller size make the data skew.


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## MrMatt

Mapping COVID-19 cases in Canada per capita


Canadian Geographic cartographer Chris Brackley continues his exploration of charting the coronavirus pandemic




www.canadiangeographic.ca





Based on population density the map makes some sense, except Vancouver.


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## m3s

To compare at all you have to shift the timelines which this CBC chart does not do. With exponential growth time is a major factor. This is like comparing Canada to Europe and saying we are fine - which is how many countries managed to not prepare at all

The early stages, which Canada still appears to be in, would be impacted greatly by factors such as a super spreader and social distancing policies. Once you have community spread and x cases, the trends line up very close around the world until distancing policies started to work (takes weeks for the numbers to react)

I don't see population density as a major factor. Canadians live mostly in urban cities interacting with each other like everywhere else, just that the cities are further spread out. If more Canadians lived isolated in the boonies maybe but this is not the case.


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## twa2w

Some of the differences have to do with timing of school breaks, the number of snowbirds returning as well as both Alberta and BC taking steps before other provinces. Differences in testing rates and how things are reported may also be a factor.

BC school breaks were later and many cancelled their travel plans. Ontario breaks were earlier and there were not many cases do many people travelled.


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## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> ... Any insights on all this?
> 
> I see the numbers as hopeful. BC and AB are large provinces too, with large populations, and yet they seem to be controlling their spread.


Hmmm .. a quick google has BC at 5 million while Alberta is at 4 million compared to Quebec's 8 million and Ontario's 14 million.

Maybe you meant BC and AB are big land wise, spreading people out and possibly letting them keep the appropriate distance more easily?

BC with 35% of Ontario's population has tested about 66% of what Ontario has tested so I am thinking more thorough testing is also helping.


Cheers


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## Eclectic12

Money172375 said:


> I think the size of Canada also plays a part......different areas......


I suspect more people more densely packed in, with limited/no option to stay away from others is a factor as well. I'm not sure what definitions were used but Vancouver was listed at something like 650K people versus Montreal at 1.7 million and Toronto at 2.9 million.




Money172375 said:


> ... I need to finally see the rest of the Canada after all this is done.


I highly recommend it ... there are still places I want to see more of or a few I haven't made it to yet.

Cheers


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## Eclectic12

ian said:


> What I do not understand is why the curves and the mortality rates are so different between provinces. Looked at the CBC stats today. Ontario and Quebec curves have been going up, up, up. BC, AB, Sask curves have been flatlining. No doubt there will be a scientific explanation after this has passed ...


There's also the backlog of tests where Ontario was saying they'd hit 5K a day and above but struggled to get 3K done. Some I'm sure isolated properly but others I expect didn't while waiting days, if not weeks for their results.


Cheers


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## nathan79

Vancouver is the most densely populated city in Canada...


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## Longtimeago

nathan79 said:


> Vancouver is the most densely populated city in Canada...


Misleading. The density of a city within it's actual city boundaries differs entirely from the density of a 'census metropolitan area'. Those include areas outside of the actual city boundaries themselves. In the case of Toronto for example they stretch from Oshawa to Hamilton and north to near Barrie, Ontario. In Toronto, the land area is 5,905.71 square kilometres with a population density of 945.4 persons per square kilometre. That is the CMA, not just the city itself. The land area of Vancouver is 2,882.68 square kilometres and the population density was 854.6 people per square kilometre. So Vancouver has less density when you look at the CMA for the city.

You can find the stats here: Focus on Geography Series, 2011 Census - Census metropolitan area of Toronto





__





Focus on Geography Series, 2016 Census - Census metropolitan area of Vancouver


Focusing on a selected geographic area, this product presents data highlights for each of the major releases of the 2016 Census. These data highlights are presented through text, tables and figures. A map image of the geographic area is also included in the product.




www12.statcan.gc.ca


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## nathan79

I was using the numbers for the cities themselves because those were the numbers cited by Eclectic12.

Elclectic12 said that Vancouver has only 650K people compared to 2.9 million for Toronto. That is correct. The part that was incorrect was the suggestion that Toronto is a denser city (again, we're talking about the city and not the CMA).

If you want to use the CMA numbers, then you are correct in saying that Toronto is a slightly more dense area, but I don't think it's enough of a difference to have a major effect on the transmission of COVID-19. It's pretty clear that population density is not the primary factor in the spread of this disease, at least when speaking of cities. I would assume that the lower density of rural areas does have a limiting effect on the spread.


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## doctrine

Whatever good is happening in BC is through sheer luck. You can't get tested even with serious symptoms, unless you are hospitalized. Social distancing is not great at best, people are still going about their business, parks are full, etc. Sure some stuff is shut down, but there are lots of house parties and gatherings all over the place.

Very, very lucky. If there were more cases in BC, it would still be spreading as self isolation and self quarantines are being largely ignored, sometimes blatantly, although people are better than a month ago and most businesses are closed.


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## Eder

You can get a test in Alberta now if you show any symptom, even just a sore throat etc. I think cases should go up with all the extra testing.


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## Longtimeago

nathan79 said:


> I was using the numbers for the cities themselves because those were the numbers cited by Eclectic12.
> 
> Elclectic12 said that Vancouver has only 650K people compared to 2.9 million for Toronto. That is correct. The part that was incorrect was the suggestion that Toronto is a denser city (again, we're talking about the city and not the CMA).
> 
> If you want to use the CMA numbers, then you are correct in saying that Toronto is a slightly more dense area, but I don't think it's enough of a difference to have a major effect on the transmission of COVID-19. It's pretty clear that population density is not the primary factor in the spread of this disease, at least when speaking of cities. I would assume that the lower density of rural areas does have a limiting effect on the spread.


Density is always a major factor in the spread of any virus, that's just common sense. Spread people out all a mile apart and how would you transmit it? Cities always have the highest number of cases in a given area, whether it is a Province or an entire country. That is again just common sense.

Sheer numbers is also a factor. While Vancouver and Toronto have similar CMA density numbers, the Toronto CMA covers a larger area in terms of square miles and a much higher number of people overall. So instead of say having 1 person every 5 feet apart for 5 miles in a given direction, you have 1 for every 5 feet apart for 40 miles in a given direction. Obviously, if it passes from one to another to another to another you run out of people to pass it to sooner in the first case than in the second case, even though density does not differ. That's density over a distance as a factor.

The same two factors in more rural areas both run out of potential that much sooner. In our county which is primarily a rural county, there is a population of around 100k and only one small city of about half of the total population. So far we have had a total of 25 confirmed cases and only 1 death. There are no patients in hospital at the moment and there has not been more than 1 at any time so far. Our hospital is actually quiet and they are looking at going back to doing some elective appointments etc.


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## andrewf

Didn't BC issue a travel advisory before March break travel, while Ontario waited until after the weekend to do so? I wonder if BC has a lower penetration of snowbirds as well. I think the latter partially explains why Quebec was hit so hard. US was absolutely rife with (untested) cases of COVID-19 when many of them were returning.


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## cainvest

MB is finally releasing their re-open plan tomorrow!
They also expanded testing for anyone showing symptoms.


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## cainvest

Haven't seen any document yet but based on the video looks like MB is starting to open on May 4th! 
Dentists, pyshiotherapy, elective surgery, clothing stores to name a few and even restaurant patios!


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## andrewf

Happy Star Wars day, MB.

I wouldn't mind a haircut... hoping not to have to do a DIY one.


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## Eder

I see that Westjet is booking flights to Hawaii starting June 5th...wonder if they know something?


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## cainvest

Eder said:


> I see that Westjet is booking flights to Hawaii starting June 5th...wonder if they know something?


Probably just trying to get some money in their pockets. If they have to cancel you'll likely get a one year credit, not a refund.


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## james4beach

andrewf said:


> Didn't BC issue a travel advisory before March break travel, while Ontario waited until after the weekend to do so? I wonder if BC has a lower penetration of snowbirds as well. I think the latter partially explains why Quebec was hit so hard. US was absolutely rife with (untested) cases of COVID-19 when many of them were returning.


This is my suspicion as well. I think the primary infection vector (so far) has been travel-related cases. I think that ON & QC has the most snowbirds, bringing the virus from the US. University and school breaks in ON were earlier than BC.

And it does seem that BC Health was more nimble responding to the developing situation.


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## ian

Alberta is doing lots of testing. The tests are easy to arrange, the testing stations are convenient and appts reduce the wait times to almost nil (our experience)., with results back in 48-72 hours. Testing is open to anyone with the slightest symptoms. The more testing that can be done the better the chances of catching someone positive and then getting them to isolate rather than pass the virus to others.

I think Alberta has done the most tests per capital but they have still not done enough. I hope other provinces are following suit.


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## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> I see that Westjet is booking flights to Hawaii starting June 5th...wonder if they know something?


How will that work when the USA has its borders closed to all travellers including Canadians? I've seen no indication that they intend to open their borders.


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## Longtimeago

Ontario's Rob Ford made it clear that he does not want to see people from other provinces coming into Ontario. He said this in direct response to other Provinces starting to open up. He is still giving no dates as to when Ontario will start to relax restrictions at all.


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## james4beach

I think it's a bad idea for Manitoba to open up so soon.

Bicycling around yesterday, I already saw how people's behaviour has changed based on the "good news" of opening up. There were large gatherings of people everywhere, especially young people. Large groups of kids, teenagers and young adults.

I'm not on board with MB opening up so quickly. The health care system does not yet have a good enough handle on the disease, and I seriously doubt MB has committed enough resources to patient tracking & follow-ups.

New outbreaks have to be monitored, the people identified, and isolated. I do not think MB is on top of this.


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## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Bicycling around yesterday, I already saw how people's behaviour has changed based on the "good news" of opening up. There were large gatherings of people everywhere, especially young people. Large groups of kids, teenagers and young adults.


I was out for a drive yesterday and did see a number of groups of mostly younger people but they did seem to be respecting the 2m distancing and the group sizes were around 10 people. With the nicer weather I also noticed more traffic, both during the day and evenings even before the re-open announcement.

We'll know in 2 weeks if this is going to work or not. I'm sure they'll be watching the numbers daily and go back to "lockdown" mode if cases climb significantly.


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## sags

Tracking is a feel good concept.

People have the virus for weeks before they show symptoms. During that time they may have infected dozens of people who infected hundreds etc.

It would require a huge army of "trackers" to go around and find everyone. It is a total joke.


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## james4beach

cainvest said:


> I was out for a drive yesterday and did see a number of groups of mostly younger people but they did seem to be respecting the 2m distancing and the group sizes were around 10 people. With the nicer weather I also noticed more traffic, both during the day and evenings even before the re-open announcement.
> 
> We'll know in 2 weeks if this is going to work or not. I'm sure they'll be watching the numbers daily and go back to "lockdown" mode if cases climb significantly.


Everyone spending time outdoors is good, and the virus won't spread so much outside... but I'd prefer if people didn't cluster so much.

Unfortunately by the time the stats register a spike in cases, it means the virus has already been aggressively spreading for 10+ days.

I'm not opposed to eventually opening things up, but I don't think it's wise for MB to go first. I would rather let some other province try it first, and see how it goes for them.


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## ian

sags...you may think that tracking is a joke but take a look how they have done it and at the results in South Korea where they have implemented extensive tracking.


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## cainvest

james4beach said:


> Everyone spending time outdoors is good, and the virus won't spread so much outside... but I'd prefer if people didn't cluster so much.
> 
> Unfortunately by the time the stats register a spike in cases, it means the virus has already been aggressively spreading for 10+ days.
> 
> I'm not opposed to eventually opening things up, but I don't think it's wise for MB to go first. I would rather let some other province try it first, and see how it goes for them.


Actually SK is starting the same time we are, May 4th ... not sure about other provinces. So now we'll have two "example provinces" to follow numbers on.

Remember, this is a big picture game and if most in MB continue to follow the guidelines we "should" be ok. Even before this week some people were breaking the guidelines, too many in groups and not social distancing, seen it on FB pics which didn't effect the numbers. Of course time will tell if this move is timed wisely or not.


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## Beaver101

Hope MB and SK has a plan in the event of a sequel (hopefully it won't come to that!!!!) ... the rest of the country will be watching, more so from your friendly neighbour ON!


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## Beaver101

deleted ...wrong thread.


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## Prairie Guy

Beaver101 said:


> I guess the rich can't wait to get their hands on junks or part with their $$$$ ...


There are thousands of employees at the 775 stores who thankfully have jobs to go back to (not everyone is that lucky) but all you care about is dumping on the rich.


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## Eder

I think the reality is that having maintained grocery stores etc to remain open all this time,and the fact that Superstore employees aren't dropping like flies shows that reopening is a no brainer. Why shouldn't Macy's open using similar distancing procedures.


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## Beaver101

Prairie Guy said:


> There are thousands of employees at the 775 stores who thankfully have jobs to go back to (not everyone is that lucky) but all you care about is dumping on the rich.


 ... I didn't know that the '000s of employees are part of the elite "rich"????


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## Longtimeago

Not much to lose if they have a resurge in Manitoba. When I was still having to work for a living, they always said 2 things about Manitoba and Winnipeg in particular. 'It isn't the end of the world but you can see it from there' and 'it's where you get sent when your company wants to transfer you out of the way.' LOL

Exile to a form of Canadian Siberia.


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## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Not much to lose if they have a resurge in Manitoba. When I was still having to work for a living, they always said 2 things about Manitoba and Winnipeg in particular. 'It isn't the end of the world but you can see it from there' and 'it's where you get sent when your company wants to transfer you out of the way.' LOL
> 
> Exile to a form of Canadian Siberia.


Lol, there was another one something like ... I was born in Winnipeg, what's your excuse for being here? 

On the plus side for MB, we doing way better than many other provinces on the covid numbers especially ON and QC.


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## Eder

I would trade most places I have been to live in Eastern Manitoba...it's gorgeous. Of course the skeeters are econo sized.


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## ian

Costco definitely appears to be the best protected store, employees and customers, by far that we have been in. It would be very interesting to see how many of their customer facing staff have contracted covid. We have had two emails from Superstores advising of our an employee at each of two stores who has contracted covid. That seems like a very low rate to me given that both of these stores are huge and there is a fair amount of customer traffic in both. Not advocating for an early opening up, just wondering how stores compare.


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## Beaver101

^ Unfortunately, not the same trend in ON:

Seven employees at Costco store in Vaughan test positive for COVID-19

Also, a couple of NoFrills (in mid-town Toronto) and a Loblaws plus a Longo foodstore had employees with positive cases.

Search Results


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## Eder

Probably similar infection rate as those people that stayed at at home.

At any rate my sister is a teacher...big video zoom meeting with school board tomorrow...she thinks it most likely means they'll be going back to work in the classrooms.


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## Prairie Guy

Beaver101 said:


> ... I didn't know that the '000s of employees are part of the elite "rich"????


I didn't say that they were part of the rich. I said that thousands of people are probably thankful that they have a job to go back to and all you can do is criticize the rich. Try looking at the big picture instead of complaining that someone is richer than you.


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## Beaver101

Prairie Guy said:


> I didn't say that they were part of the rich. I* said that thousands of people are probably thankful that they have a job to go back* to and all you can do is criticize the rich. Try looking at the big picture instead of complaining that someone is richer than you.


 ... like you care and as if you were looking at the "bigger" picture. Another oxymoron.


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## Prairie Guy

Beaver101 said:


> ... like you care and as if you were looking at the "bigger" picture. Another oxymoron.


Although I'm retired I have a lot of family and friends who are worried about losing their jobs. They have bills to pay and mouths to feed. CERB won't last forever but their job might be gone forever. I'm not sure why this escapes you but maybe your viewpoint is so narrow that all you see is rich people and that blinds you to the facts.


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## Beaver101

^ Yep I'm blind and deaf to Fake News dispensers and trying very hard to practice Confirmation Bias. Whatever. Always something to learn from this forum.


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## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> we doing way better


What's that Winnipeg vernacular? 

I know it's the back of beyond but I would have thought they still speaka the Englis there.


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## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> What's that Winnipeg vernacular?
> 
> I know it's the back of beyond but I would have thought they still speaka the Englis there.


I wrote it in "******* speak" for you ... proper Ontario engrish.


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## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> I wrote it in "******* speak" for you ... proper Ontario engrish.


Umm, I was under the impression that '********' while an American term and not a Canadian term, refers to poor white rural people if we leave geography out of it. If we are going to use it in reference to Canadians as well, that's fine, but would it not apply more to 'Westerners' rather than the more urban 'Easterners' in Canada?


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## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Umm, I was under the impression that '********' while an American term and not a Canadian term, refers to poor white rural people if we leave geography out of it. If we are going to use it in reference to Canadians as well, that's fine, but would it not apply more to 'Westerners' rather than the more urban 'Easterners' in Canada?


I believe, in the US anyways, it relates most to the southern areas of the country not east/west.


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## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> I believe, in the US anyways, it relates most to the southern areas of the country not east/west.


Yes it does but also to a degree east and west. It originally referred to the southeast states of Texas, Georgia and Florida but has been expanded to focus more on 'poor' and 'rural' overall. There are plenty of '********' in Arizona for example and even stretching to the Midwest and Northeast.

In any case, if using it in reference to Canada, it would apply more to the West than to the East. Jason Kenney would be a good example. In the typical '*******' stereotype you have, 'pickup trucks, guns and racism.' 








#184 Jason Kenney Is A Charming Man: Inside Alberta's Weird Conservatism


The Texas of the north. Racist ********, gun nuts, and pickup truck enthusiasts. That's the Alberta stereotype portrayed in much of the rest of Canada,




www.canadalandshow.com


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## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> It originally referred to the southeast states of Texas, Georgia and Florida ...


I'll stick with the original reference of southeast.


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## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> I'll stick with the original reference of southeast.


Well that's fine but how then can you connect it to Canada since we do not have any 'southeast' region in any kind of normally accepted descriptions of the country?

the USA has the Southwest, southeast, northeast, northwest but we don't. Here are our normally accepted regional area names.





__





Discover Canada - Canada’s Regions - Canada.ca


Discover Canada - Canada’s Regions




www.canada.ca




The only other common regional term we use in Canada is 'east vs. west'. 

There is no question in my mind as to where the majority of Canadian '********' would be found.


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## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Well that's fine but how then can you connect it to Canada since we do not have any 'southeast' region in any kind of normally accepted descriptions of the country?


Simple ... your location is more south and east of me.


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## Eder

Actually a ******* refered to people working outside in the sun...pick ups, racism etc are added by some that should look in a mirror.


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## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> Actually a ******* refered to people working outside in the sun...pick ups, racism etc are added by some that should look in a mirror.


That association is only one past association. If you look a bit harder you can find a reference to '********' related to the Covenanters of Scotland who signed their manifestos in blood and wore a red cloth around their necks as an indicator of their allegiance. They were the first of what came to be known as Presbyterians.

Various uses of the word can be found with different definitions. At one time it also referred to American coal miners and it was also used to refer to Catholics in Northern England in the 19th century.

The only question here is IF Canada has '********' who does it refer to? Cainvest's, 'south and east of me' is a pretty lame definition. I prefer Kenny as a prime example of a Canadian *******. Define him as you will.


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## cainvest

Looking at the provincial numbers this morning it would appear only NL, PE, NB, MB and SK have flat (or close to) curves. Even NU had their first reported case now.

It will be very interesting over the next 3 weeks as some provinces open up a bit and should put more of a timeline in perspective for the worst hit ones like ON and QC. So if the majority of them fail and their numbers rise significantly again I wonder how far they'll let it go? We could be looking at a re-lockdown that continues well into the fall which will defintely slam the economy hard I would think.


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## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Looking at the provincial numbers this morning it would appear only NL, PE, NB, MB and SK have flat (or close to) curves. Even NU had their first reported case now.
> 
> It will be very interesting over the next 3 weeks as some provinces open up a bit and should put more of a timeline in perspective for the worst hit ones like ON and QC. So if the majority of them fail and their numbers rise significantly again I wonder how far they'll let it go? We could be looking at a re-lockdown that continues well into the fall which will defintely slam the economy hard I would think.


Arguably Ontario is flat, we've had approximately equal number of recovering as new cases for a few days.
I think we have to get to the point where community spread is very low or negligible, but realistically it appears only a fraction of a percent ever got this, even in Quebec.


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## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Arguably Ontario is flat, we've had approximately equal number of recovering as new cases for a few days.


Is that a good metric to use or is it better to look at the new cases by day as an indicator? So if the daily new case number is decreasing that shows that the measures are working right? Of course one of the primary concerns is to make sure the hospitals are not overloaded.


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## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Arguably Ontario is flat, we've had approximately equal number of recovering as new cases for a few days.
> I think we have to get to the point where community spread is very low or negligible, but realistically it appears only a fraction of a percent ever got this, even in Quebec.


I think a new lockdown to some degree is inevitable this year.


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## sags

My concern would be that people still don't get it.

Our older neighbors like to chat when we see them outside, which is fine.......but they keep creeping closer and closer while they talk.

I avoid talking to them now. I don't know if they don't realize they are doing it or don't believe the threat is real.


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## andrewf

ian said:


> Costco definitely appears to be the best protected store, employees and customers, by far that we have been in. It would be very interesting to see how many of their customer facing staff have contracted covid. We have had two emails from Superstores advising of our an employee at each of two stores who has contracted covid. That seems like a very low rate to me given that both of these stores are huge and there is a fair amount of customer traffic in both. Not advocating for an early opening up, just wondering how stores compare.


I heard of a Costco in Vaughan getting shut down due to multiple Covid infections among staff.


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## Longtimeago

Has no one else noticed that we have gone from, 'we need to be near the bottom of the curve before we open up'?

When did, 'if it's flat, that's good enough to start opening up' become the criteria for opening up?

The science hasn't changed has it? All that's changed is the PRESSURE from business and the public to open up.

We also need to remember that as we continue to ramp up testing, the number of positive cases will rise without it meaning we have a higher PERCENTAGE of positive cases. We could have more positive cases and at the same time have a decreasing percentage of infection rate. But if we keep changing the number of tests done, it really tells you nothing in regard to what is actually changing in the population. The only number not affected is the number of deaths.


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## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Has no one else noticed that we have gone from, 'we need to be near the bottom of the curve before we open up'?
> 
> When did, 'if it's flat, that's good enough to start opening up' become the criteria for opening up?
> 
> The science hasn't changed has it? All that's changed is the PRESSURE from business and the public to open up.
> 
> We also need to remember that as we continue to ramp up testing, the number of positive cases will rise without it meaning we have a higher PERCENTAGE of positive cases. We could have more positive cases and at the same time have a decreasing percentage of infection rate. But if we keep changing the number of tests done, it really tells you nothing in regard to what is actually changing in the population. The only number not affected is the number of deaths.


I don't remember them saying "bottom" but rather "flatten" the curve. The key point has always been to not overwhelm hosptals with covid patients.

Also, increased testing in MB has not resulted in more cases, hense the reopening tomorrow.


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## sags

I have a feeling that things will open up, infections will spread and the Province will have to deal with a host of new problems.

No employees should be forced to accept the risk. It should all be done on a voluntary basis. People should not lose CERB or EI benefits for refusing.


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## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Has no one else noticed that we have gone from, 'we need to be near the bottom of the curve before we open up'?
> 
> When did, 'if it's flat, that's good enough to start opening up' become the criteria for opening up?
> 
> The science hasn't changed has it? All that's changed is the PRESSURE from business and the public to open up.
> 
> We also need to remember that as we continue to ramp up testing, the number of positive cases will rise without it meaning we have a higher PERCENTAGE of positive cases. We could have more positive cases and at the same time have a decreasing percentage of infection rate. But if we keep changing the number of tests done, it really tells you nothing in regard to what is actually changing in the population. The only number not affected is the number of deaths.


People are getting the 2 points mixed up.
The one thing I liked about Trudeaus briefings, is he tried to stick to a single point each day.

They were talking flattening the curve to make sure active cases stayed below hospital capacity. That was the first target. Looking at the overwhelmed hospitals in Italy, they rightly made this the singular focus, and primary talking point.

The second target, reopening, should be when we have low levels of community spread.
If we're not getting new cases, we can assume that there are very few shedders in the community

How low is a risk balance, we have to weigh the risk of the nearly inevitable second wave with the damage that the lockdown is having. This is why we need a good plan.

I think the Qubec school plan is unworkable and impractical. I think they're actually expecting most kids to stay home, even if they open schools.


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## james4beach

Right, the point of flattening the curve was always to avoid overwhelming hospitals. We were trying to avoid a total collapse of the healthcare system.

There's no question that people are going to keep getting infected. This is unavoidable; it's a very infectious disease. People will catch it, and some will end up in the hospital. For at least a year to come, people will keep catching this (and dying from it).

If Manitoba's hospitals start to fill up with COVID-19 patients, they will have to lock down the province again. On the other hand, if the province is able to stay "open" with a steady but manageable trickle of people into hospital, that is success.


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## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> People are getting the 2 points mixed up.
> The one thing I liked about Trudeaus briefings, is he tried to stick to a single point each day.
> 
> They were talking flattening the curve to make sure active cases stayed below hospital capacity. That was the first target. Looking at the overwhelmed hospitals in Italy, they rightly made this the singular focus, and primary talking point.
> 
> The second target, reopening, should be when we have low levels of community spread.
> If we're not getting new cases, we can assume that there are very few shedders in the community
> 
> How low is a risk balance, we have to weigh the risk of the nearly inevitable second wave with the damage that the lockdown is having. This is why we need a good plan.
> 
> I think the Qubec school plan is unworkable and impractical. I think they're actually expecting most kids to stay home, even if they open schools.


I've added a new comment on the main coronavirus thread about re-opening. 

Re your second target, we aren't at low levels of spread and that was my point. We won't be at low levels of spread until we are down the other side of the curve. Being at the top of a flat curve is nowhere near that.

Regarding the cost of opening up vs. staying locked down, I think people are over-estimating the difference. A restaurant that is allowed to open up 25% of their tables will last how long? A factory with only 50% of employees showing up will last how long? How and when would you expect a restaurant to be able to get back to 100% of previous business? Easing restrictions does not make a business profitable, only removing restrictions entirely will perhaps do that. 

You have to look at the actual practical details of everything, not just think 'easing will help'. How long will a golfer who is itching to get back on the course be willing to pay DOUBLE for a cart rental since they can no longer share a cart with a second player for example? What golf course has double the amount of carts that they previously needed, to even rent if someone is willing to pay for it? 

The devil is in the details. My haircutter has a small salon and will only realistically be able to deal with one customer at a time in the salon and maintain distancing from anyone other than the cutter. That means the other 2 cutters will not be able to go back to work until when? Further easing? How will that happen? Will we at some point say, 'oh OK, you can forget distancing now.' The only conceivable point at which we could say that is if we have been vaccinated against the virus. When (assuming if) will that be likely to happen? Until then, will the salon be able to continue to stay in business with only 1 cutter working?

You keep saying we need a 'good plan' and I keep saying, tell me your good plan.


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## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Regarding the cost of opening up vs. staying locked down, I think people are over-estimating the difference. A restaurant that is allowed to open up 25% of their tables will last how long? A factory with only 50% of employees showing up will last how long?


The question is ... will they make more profit with 25% seating open vs take-out/delivery only?
The same for factory workers, will profit increase due to more employees working? This could help pay the bills right?


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## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> The question is ... will they make more profit with 25% seating open vs take-out/delivery only?
> The same for factory workers, will profit increase due to more employees working? This could help pay the bills right?


Cainvest, I would not expect any restaurant to make ANY profit at all with 25% seating AND also doing take-out/delivery at the same time. 

The average restaurant profit margin is 3-5%. Profit is sales minus costs. If most of your costs remain the same and your occupancy is only 25% of what it previously was, how would you expect to make a profit at all?

It isn't just a question of a meal costs you X in actual food costs to produce and you make Y profit from each meal. All your FIXED costs remain the same, like rent, lighting, insurance, etc. etc.

The same is true of a factory, if you only have half the workers producing half what you previously did, you will probably not make any profit at all. Your fixed costs will eat up all the income you generate. The BEST you can hope for is you will LOSE less per month than when you were in total shutdown.


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## Longtimeago

The question is how long would you continue to keep a business that continues to lose money every month, putting you deeper into debt? 

At what point will a small business be able to see any light at the end of the tunnel? It sure isn't when they can only do 25% of the business they previously did that paid them 3-5% profit. They need to be able to at least see when and how that will return to 100% of previous business which would then allow them to start applying the 3-5% profit they finally start generating, to the debt they have accumulated to that point in time.

So we talk about 'easing' but not about how 'easing' will get beyond that first step. How will we get from say 25% occupancy in a restaurant, back to 100%?


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## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Cainvest, I would not expect any restaurant to make ANY profit at all with 25% seating AND also doing take-out/delivery at the same time.
> 
> The average restaurant profit margin is 3-5%. Profit is sales minus costs. If most of your costs remain the same and your occupancy is only 25% of what it previously was, how would you expect to make a profit at all?
> 
> It isn't just a question of a meal costs you X in actual food costs to produce and you make Y profit from each meal. All your FIXED costs remain the same, like rent, lighting, insurance, etc. etc.
> 
> The same is true of a factory, if you only have half the workers producing half what you previously did, you will probably not make any profit at all. Your fixed costs will eat up all the income you generate. The BEST you can hope for is you will LOSE less per month than when you were in total shutdown.


Many restaurants don't run at 100% seating so something (25%) it better than nothing given the situation. Also, all fixed costs are not the same ... did you forget about the employees you're not paying because they are laid off or gov assistance pay? Also, losing less per month is a good thing right now as opposed to losing 100% being closed right?

Not sure what your point is anyways, this is the plan going forward and businesses can choose to open, and potentially make enough to pay their bills, or stay closed.


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## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Many restaurants don't run at 100% seating so something (25%) it better than nothing given the situation. Also, all fixed costs are not the same ... did you forget about the employees you're not paying because they are laid off or gov assistance pay? Also, losing less per month is a good thing right now as opposed to losing 100% being closed right?
> 
> Not sure what your point is anyways, this is the plan going forward and businesses can choose to open, and potentially make enough to pay their bills, or stay closed.


The point cainvest is that the 'easing' we are starting to do is not an ANSWER to keeping a business viable. It is a start to bringing in some money to a business that will REDUCE how much they are bleeding but it will not STOP the bleeding. 

Yes losing less may be a good thing but not a final answer and what I am saying is that people need to look at what is the final answer. If a restaurant (or any business) cannot get back to 100% in a REASONABLE amount of time, they will go out of business permanently. 

People hear 'easing' and think that means it is on the road to 'normal'. It is and it isn't. It may only be postponing the inevitable. Until there is a plan to get back to 100% it isn't necessarily a question of the cost of lockdown vs. opening up as MrMatt keeps talking about.

To 'open up' means 100% for it to make any sense to compare to staying locked down. If you only open up 25%, it most likely just delays the inevitable. To 'open up' 100% the cost is in lives that such a move before a vaccine would result in. MrMatt is suggesting that he would rather lose lives than have the restaurant go out of business, in simple terms. 

But instead of coming out and saying that, he keeps saying, 'we need a good plan' as if there is a way to get to 100% opened up without it costing us more lives. Whether it is a restaurant, an airline, a car manufacturer or any other business, such a plan CANNOT exist until we have a vaccine. That's why I keep asking MrMatt to tell us his plan for how to 'open up' to 100% without it costing us more lives OR to admit that he is prepared to sacrifice your life or mine in order to open up. I'm sure he doesn't expect to have to sacrifice his own life though.


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## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> The point cainvest is that the 'easing' we are starting to do is not an ANSWER to keeping a business viable. It is a start to bringing in some money to a business that will REDUCE how much they are bleeding but it will not STOP the bleeding.


Since there is no other viable option (vaccine) available what's your problem with the current plan?


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## Eder

Well a pleasant surprise...my bike shop reopened today...otw there to buy parts.


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## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> The question is ... will they make more profit with 25% seating open vs take-out/delivery only?
> The same for factory workers, will profit increase due to more employees working? This could help pay the bills right?


Yes it would likely be a smaller loss if they could do more.

But the question remains, why?

What justifies the lockdown restrictions?

People are being hurt and suffering and even dying due to the lockdown. We have to have a real discussion on the costs of the lockdown and costs (risks) of relaxing it.

This is just the most obvious cost of government intervention on stuff, but they do this all the time.
Their restrictions and red tape, kill businesses, kill jobs, and hurt people.

I do think we need lockdown restrictions, but it really angers me when people pretend that there is no cost to these actions.


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## Prairie Guy

Longtimeago said:


> How long will a golfer who is itching to get back on the course be willing to pay DOUBLE for a cart rental since they can no longer share a cart with a second player for example? What golf course has double the amount of carts that they previously needed, to even rent if someone is willing to pay for it?


Obviously you have no clue about golf courses and golf carts or you wouldn't have made that comment. I've been golfing for 30+ years and these are the facts:


Cart rental is per person. For example a single rider pays $20 (or whatever the rate is). 2 people sharing a cart would pay $20 each. No one pays double.
most courses have more than enough carts as plenty of people walk. It's common to see 80% or more of the people on a course walking. The only time they need extra carts is during tournaments when riding is "mandatory" (included in the entry fee). In those instances they borrow carts from another course.
Courses are allowing people who live in the same home to share a cart


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## Longtimeago

Prairie Guy said:


> Obviously you have no clue about golf courses and golf carts or you wouldn't have made that comment. I've been golfing for 30+ years and these are the facts:
> 
> 
> Cart rental is per person. For example a single rider pays $20 (or whatever the rate is). 2 people sharing a cart would pay $20 each. No one pays double.
> most courses have more than enough carts as plenty of people walk. It's common to see 80% or more of the people on a course walking. The only time they need extra carts is during tournaments when riding is "mandatory" (included in the entry fee). In those instances they borrow carts from another course.
> Courses are allowing people who live in the same home to share a cart


Prairie Guy, you focus on the trees and ignore the forest. I don't care how cart rentals are handled, it was an example to make a point. In the same response I talked about restaurants and haircutters, why focus on golf cart rentals and ignore the OVERALL point being made?

All you ever do is make political rants and cherry pick things to disagree with. Pathetic.


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## sags

At every tee and every green, the golf carts converge and the golfers mingle. Using golf carts as an example of social distancing is pretty weak.


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## ian

We have a disaster in the Calgary region. Brought by reprehensible actions by an employer, Cargill, and by the Alberta Gov't. I believe they are up to about 850 cases directly from the meat processing facility. And.....they are still operating. One death at least, numerous hospitalizations. Government does not seem to care.


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## Eder

They should be operating...the facility has taken action. Every person there has been tested.. & half their workers are now immune. We need businesses running, not punish them further.


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## james4beach

ian said:


> We have a disaster in the Calgary region. Brought by reprehensible actions by an employer, Cargill, and by the Alberta Gov't. I believe they are up to about 850 cases directly from the meat processing facility. And.....they are still operating. One death at least, numerous hospitalizations. Government does not seem to care.


A shocking disregard for worker safety, and the safety of all Canadians. I think there needs to be a legal hammer to create penalties for management and owners.


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## Prairie Guy

Longtimeago said:


> Prairie Guy, you focus on the trees and ignore the forest. I don't care how cart rentals are handled, it was an example to make a point. In the same response I talked about restaurants and haircutters, why focus on golf cart rentals and ignore the OVERALL point being made?


If you have to use false information to make a point, then it wasn't a very good point to begin with.

I played golf yesterday and had no problem maintaining proper distancing. The course was full and people had a good time.

My hairdresser is doing just fine. She owns the shop and the staff are alternating days and working longer hours. So hairdresser A works Monday, Wed, and Fri. Hairdresser B works Tues, Thur, and Sat. Instead of 10 - 6 they work 8 to 8 (or later) 3 times a week. They've adjusted and come up with a plan where everyone is happy.


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## cainvest

Prairie Guy said:


> Obviously you have no clue about golf courses and golf carts or you wouldn't have made that comment. I've been golfing for 30+ years and these are the facts:
> 
> 
> Cart rental is per person. For example a single rider pays $20 (or whatever the rate is). 2 people sharing a cart would pay $20 each. No one pays double.


This depends on the course, some are a fixed rate, say $40. If you share a cart, each person would pay $20.


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## cainvest

Day 1 of the re-opening, definitely more traffic and people going into stores. Went down to get a fishing license and they were busy ....


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## Eclectic12

Longtimeago said:


> The question is how long would you continue to keep a business that continues to lose money every month, putting you deeper into debt?


Some packed it in mid-April. 

No word on whether they are switching to being employees permanently or whether they plan to restart the same business in a new location when everything settles down.

At least one owner that was profiled in an article said they'd look at other business opportunities in the future but the one they had been running was done.


Cheers


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## Eclectic12

sags said:


> At every tee and every green, the golf carts converge and the golfers mingle. Using golf carts as an example of social distancing is pretty weak.


IMO ... it's a good example.

Those that are going to keep social distancing will do it ... those what won't, won't. 

Same as wandering around the local grocery store or Costco in my area. Fortunately, the majority are maintaining the distance.


Cheers


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> At every tee and every green, the golf carts converge and the golfers mingle. Using golf carts as an example of social distancing is pretty weak.


They are opening golf in my province. Physical distancing must still be kept. Some States in the US have kept golf open. My friend was saying her father goes every few days with his partner (they are in the same household). The club house and everything is closed, there are no rentals for anything, and they must bring there own cart (I assumed those rolling ones). Things can be done to physically distancing, every business must look at their individual environments and businesses. One golf course could open while another may have to stay shut.

In my city, even though golf courses may open, they may or may not open the public ones because they are geared towards seniors as they are lower income courses. They still figuring out the rules. I will not be testing out the rules when things first open because my family situation, but I am totally okay with others deciding they will. I can always choose to stay home like I am now.


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## cainvest

Eclectic12 said:


> Those that are going to keep social distancing will do it ... those what won't, won't.
> 
> Same as wandering around the local grocery store or Costco in my area. Fortunately, the majority are maintaining the distance.


Went into CDN tire yesterday (no line up outside) for a fishing license and a number of families were shopping and not social distancing. Thankfully they don't sell fishing licenses anymore so I was able to just leave the store.

So yes, some will and others won't follow the guidelines but the stores do have more people in them since the re-opening.


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## Longtimeago

I have heard that some golf courses are opening in some US states but only allow 1 player at a time. No foursomes at all. How enjoyable is golf as a solo player? I don't know since I don't golf but I would imagine that the social aspect is a big part of why MOST people golf. I've heard about golf courses (in the past) where they have had to limit how many beers they can carry on a cart etc. Doesn't sound to me like it's about playing well if they have to be concerned about drunk golfers. LOL

I did hear a good story about a hairdresser's plans for re-opening that I thought was quite smart. My Sister-in-law's hairdresser plans to re-open when allowed and has already started setting up for it. Only 2 haircutters and 2 customers in at a time, no separate hair washer and plexiglass screens between the two 'cutting chairs'. 

But here is the smart part I thought. Given it will only allow for half the business compared to before, the owner is planning a 'second shift' in the evenings, to midnight. So all 4 haircutters will work and they will be able to handle as many customers as before.

Maybe a similar solution could be found for other businesses simply by extending their hours and working in shifts.


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## off.by.10

There are idiots everywhere, including on golf courses. Playing alone is usually discouraged because it allows far fewer player on the course. That's why you rarely see it. People who enjoy a walk in the forest will enjoy it just as well. Some play golf for the social aspect. Some play it to get some fresh air and sunshine in a nice looking place. Some play it for the challenge.

With that said, I don't quite get the requirement for a single player. It's not like you're going to run out of space to keep your distance from the other players. It's also easy to take turns on the green. Even a 5 meter distance wouldn't be challenging on a golf course.


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## Plugging Along

My city is working on the plan to reopen golf courses. So far some of the regulations only people that share a home may share a cart. They are talking about one other person not in the home may play together, but I didn't hear the definitive on that. They somehow must still maintain social distance. Technically, you could have a person renting the cart, the other person bag on the cart, and then only the one person gets to drive the whole time while the other person walks. No restaurants, club houses, ball washing stations, will be available.

I am haven't golfed pre kids, but if this continues, we may finally get around to teaching the kids to golf this summer. It's not for all, but it might help some in situations and give people another venue to safely exercise and get out.


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## Plugging Along

Longtimeago said:


> I have heard that some golf courses are opening in some US states but only allow 1 player at a time. No foursomes at all. How enjoyable is golf as a solo player? I don't know since I don't golf but I would imagine that the social aspect is a big part of why MOST people golf. I've heard about golf courses (in the past) where they have had to limit how many beers they can carry on a cart etc. Doesn't sound to me like it's about playing well if they have to be concerned about drunk golfers. LOL
> 
> I did hear a good story about a hairdresser's plans for re-opening that I thought was quite smart. My Sister-in-law's hairdresser plans to re-open when allowed and has already started setting up for it. Only 2 haircutters and 2 customers in at a time, no separate hair washer and plexiglass screens between the two 'cutting chairs'.
> 
> But here is the smart part I thought. Given it will only allow for half the business compared to before, the owner is planning a 'second shift' in the evenings, to midnight. So all 4 haircutters will work and they will be able to handle as many customers as before.
> 
> Maybe a similar solution could be found for other businesses simply by extending their hours and working in shifts.


Good solution with the hair dresser. I think this is the way things should go. 

The government should slowly lift restrictions, while still providing very clear safety guidelines.
Business must find creative ways to meet ALL of the guidelines (or better) within their environment. If they can't do it, then they don't get to open.
Government monitors very carefully the numbers and the compliance. Companies that don't follow, get shut down, people are being idiots, then we need to try things down again.


----------



## Plugging Along

We cant just keep completely closing the economy, but need to do it safely. There is no way to eliminate all risks here as there are just too many unknowns. However, a great way to reduce those risk is carefully controlled and monitored pilots and trials and errors. There is a great opportunity to bring in creativity and new innovation. 

There needs to be responsibility from the government to provide clear guidelines/legislation and macro monitoring, the businesses to come up with creative solutions to meet the guidelines and comply, and individuals to follow the guidelines and take of themselves. Really for this to work, all three levels need to work together.


----------



## Eder

off.by.10 said:


> Even a 5 meter distance wouldn't be challenging on a golf course.


With my duck hook a 50 meter distance would be common in our 4some. Btw every course I've looked at is foursomes ...


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> We cant just keep completely closing the economy, but need to do it safely. There is no way to eliminate all risks here as there are just too many unknowns. However, a great way to reduce those risk is carefully controlled and monitored pilots and trials and errors. There is a great opportunity to bring in creativity and new innovation.
> 
> There needs to be responsibility from the government to provide clear guidelines/legislation and macro monitoring, the businesses to come up with creative solutions to meet the guidelines and comply, and individuals to follow the guidelines and take of themselves. Really for this to work, all three levels need to work together.


Good luck on that.
They're ticketting people in cars, they're ticketing people out playing in open areas with their parents.

While most officials are responsible and trying to do the right thing, there are too many power tripping officials thrilled at the incredible power they've been given.

Government really doesn't like to limit their authority.


----------



## sags

How do the police know if groups of people are close family members living in the same household ?

If the police are going to have to go around checking on all groups of people, we will need a lot more police officers on patrols.


----------



## sags

To maintain a safe distance on golf courses from tee to green it would take all day to play 18 holes. To space the golfers out so that faster golfers don't catch up to slower golfers at the tee off areas, there would have to be fewer people on the course. It reaches a point where it is uneconomical for the courses to remain open, and I suspect they will be lax in their rules to make more money. Are the clubhouses going to be open ? Is the "beer" cart going to be driving around the course from golfer to golfer ?

Golf courses make significant income from hosting tournaments. The whole idea of tournaments is social contacts, among co-workers, or to rub shoulders with some NHL players for a charity or something. Social distancing defeats the concept of the tournament.

Let golf courses open but insist on social distancing. Any complaints should be followed up and courses closed if they don't comply.


----------



## sags

Personally, I don't care if people want to take the chance to get infected. I just don't want them to infect other people because of their decision.

People walk around all over without a mask and then start crowding into my space. They don't like it when I move away from them.

Maybe they don't care but I do.


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> Good luck on that.
> They're ticketting people in cars, they're ticketing people out playing in open areas with their parents.
> 
> While most officials are responsible and trying to do the right thing, there are too many power tripping officials thrilled at the incredible power they've been given.
> 
> Government really doesn't like to limit their authority.


I have to say I have been fine with how things have been in my province. Perhaps our police show more restraint in my City. There have been very few tickets issued in my city. The street minister that kept large gatherings of homeless while he preached and gave them hotdogs despite warnings. The adult skateboarders who were asked to stop and refused, and the person who spit in an elderly persons face through their car window. From what I read, these are the only ones complaining, and I would have to agree with the police. 

I can understand there is some abuse and stupidity, like the police that arrest the Stormtrooper on May 4th (not COVID related). To make this work, you need responsibility on all parts.


----------



## Plugging Along

sags said:


> To maintain a safe distance on golf courses from tee to green it would take all day to play 18 holes. To space the golfers out so that faster golfers don't catch up to slower golfers at the tee off areas, there would have to be fewer people on the course. It reaches a point where it is uneconomical for the courses to remain open, and I suspect they will be lax in their rules to make more money. Are the clubhouses going to be open ? Is the "beer" cart going to be driving around the course from golfer to golfer ?
> 
> Golf courses make significant income from hosting tournaments. The whole idea of tournaments is social contacts, among co-workers, or to rub shoulders with some NHL players for a charity or something. Social distancing defeats the concept of the tournament.
> 
> Let golf courses open but insist on social distancing. Any complaints should be followed up and courses closed if they don't comply.


These are all logistics that need to be worked out. It's good to point them out as something for everyone to think through, but not as a reason to just not try. It used to take me all day to play 18 holes anyways, and that never stopped me or anyone else behind me. You can still maintained distance in the tee box EASILY even if someone plays through. No clubhouses, no beer carts, people bring there own drink. No tournaments, they haven't relaxed our 15 person rule and don't intend too until close to the end of summer (for now).

Your problem is you just keep thinking about how things were done before. Those days are gone until a vaccine or the virus has run its course. That's doesn't mean that in some cases it can still work. It's a not an all or nothing. Each industry will have it's challenges, and then even individual businesses will have their challenges based on how they are set up. One doesn't say 'Well, we can't everything like before, let's sit on our *** and wait until the government or someone finds a solutions'. Some businesses have already started to adapt to their models and they have a better chance of surviving.


----------



## Longtimeago

Quebec is easing up despite not meeting even one of the guidelines (as far as I know) that all Provinces agreed to use recently. They aren't even on the down side of the curve yet. It seems that pressure from business is driving the bus, not the science.

Now they have had the first outbreak in a daycare north of Montreal. 








16 infected north of Montreal in Quebec's first COVID-19 outbreak in a daycare


Quebec has now seen its first COVID-19 outbreak at a daycare — at a facility in Mascouche, in the Lanaudiere region just north of Montreal. Twelve children and four staff have tested positive.



montreal.ctvnews.ca





So much for children don't get it and they are going to open schools!


----------



## Money172375

Ontario opening up hardware stores Saturday for in person shopping. Can’t wait to see the lines. I think I may even miss curb-side pickup. It was organized and quick. Wondering if they’ll maintain it to limit exposure.

Ontario has extended the state of emergency past the May long weekend. 
Really hoping my town opens the the boat launches. Our community has a private boat launch but has closed it, saying it’s illegal. From what I’ve read, private launches are exempt.


----------



## Eclectic12

c
I have heard that some golf courses are opening in some US states but only allow 1 player at a time. No foursomes at all. How enjoyable is golf as a solo player? I don't know since I don't golf but I would imagine that the social aspect is a big part of why MOST people golf ... [/QUOTE]An interesting question ... OOH, there won't be business folks smoozing on the course or those that mainly value the social aspect. OTOH, if one wants to maintain their skills for when courses fully re-open, there's only limited things that can be worked on, in say one's backyard.

FWIW ... most courses I have seen talking about their situation have been spacing out the groups as well as reminding customers that to share a cart, they have to be from the same household.


As for the beer etc., it may be the company tournaments with lots who don't usually golf that have the issue. I doubt company golf tournaments will be high on management's agenda so it may not be all that much of a problem for the next while.




Longtimeago said:


> ... But here is the smart part I thought. Given it will only allow for half the business compared to before, the owner is planning a 'second shift' in the evenings, to midnight. So all 4 haircutters will work and they will be able to handle as many customers as before.
> 
> Maybe a similar solution could be found for other businesses simply by extending their hours and working in shifts.


Maybe ... I suspect a fair percentage of customers have more flexibility for when they want to go in, at the moment.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

off.by.10 said:


> ... With that said, I don't quite get the requirement for a single player. It's not like you're going to run out of space to keep your distance from the other players. It's also easy to take turns on the green. Even a 5 meter distance wouldn't be challenging on a golf course.


It would be interesting to find out the numbers going the "one at a time" route.

I have yet to see a golf course rep talk about this low a number on camera. It may be a small number of courses.

I also see lots of opportunity to keep apart without needing to keep golfers limited to on person at a time.


Cheers


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> Ontario opening up hardware stores Saturday for in person shopping. Can’t wait to see the lines. I think I may even miss curb-side pickup. It was organized and quick. Wondering if they’ll maintain it to limit exposure.
> 
> Ontario has extended the state of emergency past the May long weekend.
> Really hoping my town opens the the boat launches. Our community has a private boat launch but has closed it, saying it’s illegal. From what I’ve read, private launches are exempt.


Our local Home Hardware intends to continue with curbside pickup and also delivery within our small town. It's really just back to where they were before they were closed for in-store shopping.


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> To maintain a safe distance on golf courses from tee to green it would take all day to play 18 holes. To space the golfers out so that faster golfers don't catch up to slower golfers at the tee off areas, there would have to be fewer people on the course. It reaches a point where it is uneconomical for the courses to remain open, and I suspect they will be lax in their rules to make more money ...


I'm guessing you've never played golf to be saying such ridiculous things? Or maybe only on a tiny course?

The fairways are wide, wide, wide ... how is difficult for the faster group to yell over to the slower group asking to play through? 
The only change is that the individuals in the groups have to stay apart, with lots of space to do so.

There does need to be more time between groups but not to the slowdown and few number you are imagining.


Keep in mind on a regular round pre-covid, our group rarely was within ten feet of other golfers - except at the club house. Even when faster golfers played through or if our group was faster, I can't recall anything but a brief thirty second period where two groups would be closer than ten feet away.



sags said:


> Are the clubhouses going to be open ? Is the "beer" cart going to be driving around the course from golfer to golfer?


I doubt it would be open for people to congregate and/or to sit in the bar/restaurant. A plastic shield for people to pay for their round likely is what is needed. I've also seen comments about the golf club restaurant providing curb-side pickup (more like golf path side).





sags said:


> ... Golf courses make significant income from hosting tournaments. The whole idea of tournaments is social contacts, among co-workers, or to rub shoulders with some NHL players for a charity or something. Social distancing defeats the concept of the tournament ...


And I don't believe any golf courses are offering tournaments at this stage. Like restaurants doing curbside pickup or delivery, the golf courses will likely only have some money coming in. Time will tell if it's enough to help out.




sags said:


> ... Let golf courses open but insist on social distancing. Any complaints should be followed up and courses closed if they don't comply.


I'd prefer the authorities followed up on places I can't get away from those who aren't social distancing. It's a lot easier to get away from offenders on a golf course than at a grocery store.

Cheers


----------



## Prairie Guy

Obviously sags has never played golf in their life...but then again having no knowledge of the subject has never stopped them from telling everyone how things will work.

I played on Monday and we had no problem staying 6 - 10 feet away for the entire round. The flag was left in and no one touched it. The round took about 4 hours which is normal. I can't think of a single Covid change that slowed the round down...in fact many of them sped it up.


----------



## sags

Sounds like you guys might as well go golfing alone.

If you expect to continually play through the golfers ahead of you......it is a problem. Some golfers will simply say no.....wait your turn.

Golf etiquette is the slower group "invite" the faster group to play through and only if there is no course congestion ahead anyways.

I don't think you guys have golfed all that much, or maybe not on busy courses.


----------



## sags

_The flag was left in and no one touched it. _

How do you putt out the balls ?

No benches to sit on at the tees ? No ball washers ? Nothing anyone could touch ?


----------



## Prairie Guy

You're not getting it sags...golf is almost like before. A few minor changes and everyone has adapted.


They've adjusted the flagstick so that the ball drops just below the top of the hole and can be removed with your club.
No ball washers...use a damp towel clipped to your golf bag.
benches are there, but there is no need to use them
no rakes in the bunkers


----------



## off.by.10

Prairie Guy, sags does not want to get it. He just wants to go on ranting. It's borderline trolling.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario opening provincial parks and conservation area on Monday. Beaches, play structures, washrooms off limits.

still no mention of boat ramps.......sigh


----------



## jargey3000

oh, sags has played golf.
In fact, I shot some secret video of him arriving at his golf club recently, with another cmf-er....enjoy!....
(ps....longtimeago belongs to the same club....thats him, in the pink golf shirt)


----------



## Eder

I've watched that movie at least 20 times.


----------



## cainvest

Looks like Manitoba is doing ok, only cases coming in are from a localized cluster related to a business for the past few days, otherwise 0 cases. Still to early to call as the re-opening started on May 4th but another couple of weeks will tell the story.


----------



## Longtimeago

jargey3000 said:


> oh, sags has played golf.
> In fact, I shot some secret video of him arriving at his golf club recently, with another cmf-er....enjoy!....
> (ps....longtimeago belongs to the same club....thats him, in the pink golf shirt)


You do realize jargey3000 that by saying the guy in pink is me, you are in fact committing defamation of my character in the form of libel since it is written and also as you identify me as someone in a picture.

Since there will be no difficulty whatsoever in proving that it is not me in the picture, you haven't a legal leg to stand on jargey3000. You are entirely open to my suing you for libel.

Perhaps Mukhang Pera can tell you just how much it is likely to cost you if I choose to pursue the suit.

If I were you, I would take care as to just what I write online about another person. One of the biggest online travel forums, went through a real nightmare some years ago for just this kind of thing and in fact it resulted not only in changes in their forum but in many other forums as well when they discovered that not only could a person posting in a forum be sued but so could the forum for allowing it.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> You do realize jargey3000 that by saying the guy in pink is me, you are in fact committing defamation of my character in the form of libel since it is written and also as you identify me as someone in a picture.
> 
> Since there will be no difficulty whatsoever in proving that it is not me in the picture, you haven't a legal leg to stand on jargey3000. You are entirely open to my suing you for libel.
> 
> Perhaps Mukhang Pera can tell you just how much it is likely to cost you if I choose to pursue the suit.
> 
> If I were you, I would take care as to just what I write online about another person. One of the biggest online travel forums, went through a real nightmare some years ago for just this kind of thing and in fact it resulted not only in changes in their forum but in many other forums as well when they discovered that not only could a person posting in a forum be sued but so could the forum for allowing it.


Yawn, parody defense.

I doubt anyone seriously believed that you were the actor in the picture. Even then, what type of damages would you be expecting?

Yes, threaten the great silencing, because comedy hurt your feelings.

Myself, I look awesome in a pink shirt, even better in lavendar.


----------



## Prairie Guy

The angry and bitter left has destroyed everything, including comedy. They won't rest until only the only speech allowed is government approved.


----------



## sags

Cash for clunkers announced.

Seniors collecting OAS will get $300 and those collecting OAS/GIS will collect $500. It is a one time benefit paid this month.

We will get $600 so maybe buy a new fridge so we can stock more food items. Thanks JT !


----------



## Eclectic12

sags said:


> Sounds like you guys might as well go golfing alone.
> 
> If you expect to continually play through the golfers ahead of you......it is a problem. Some golfers will simply say no.....wait your turn ...


And that's different than pre-covid how?
I've only seen on group of two get upset when they weren't allowed to play through the last group in tournament.




sags said:


> ... Golf etiquette is the slower group "invite" the faster group to play through and only if there is no course congestion ahead anyways.


And where the course is accepting fewer players and spacing out groups, it's going to be even less congested.




sags said:


> ... I don't think you guys have golfed all that much, or maybe not on busy courses.


And that has what to do with how much room there is to spread out?

The main choke points are waiting to the club house, starting and the start of each hole ... all easily managed before covid and with open courses accepting fewer golfers, made even easier.


Which courses have you been on, where it was wall to wall golfers so that you'd have a problem staying six feet away from other golfers?




sags said:


> _The flag was left in and no one touched it. _
> How do you putt out the balls ?


I'd expect the same as the practice putting area ... put into the hole with the flag in.




sags said:


> ... No benches to sit on at the tees?


With pull cart or power cart, I don't recall sitting on a bench. 




sags said:


> ... No ball washers ? Nothing anyone could touch?


Lots more to touch in the grocery store and yet getting groceries is supposedly safe.


Cheers


----------



## Money172375

Ontario looks to formally announce stage 1 restriction easing on Thursday. Just in time for the long weekend. Wonder if there will be any substantial easing in time for the weekend.


----------



## cainvest

Money172375 said:


> Ontario looks to formally announce stage 1 restriction easing on Thursday. Just in time for the long weekend. Wonder if there will be any substantial easing in time for the weekend.


Just looking at the ontario numbers I'd say the Aug long weekend might be a good time for easing the restrictions.


----------



## sags

Ontario's cases went up 361 and 56 more deaths, so it is unlikely anything is opening in May.









Ontario sees slight uptick with 361 new COVID-19 cases, 56 more deaths


Ontario health officials logged 361 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday and confirmed 56 more deaths.



toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## james4beach

Sorry to hear this about Ontario. Still looking pretty dangerous there.

Here in MB, things are open, but I think some people are getting complacent and will quickly forget about the risk. For example I was at a store near a shelf full of hand sanitizer & disinfectant, and I overheard a woman saying: "kind of dumb that all of this is available *now that the virus is over*".

That shows a major misunderstanding. The virus problem is NOT over and it can come back in the blink of an eye.


----------



## Eder

Risk has been mitigated and threat of death over rated...we need to open up...
Also LTA...you deserve the analogy...being a tit about it makes it even funnier. Perhaps you can come sue me too...please!


----------



## Money172375

Actually the local news is rather upbeat and positive saying new cases have been under 400 for a few days now. Restrictions are definitely easing here. Hardware stores are fully open as of 3 days ago. Curb side retailers are allowed to open. More is definitely coming on Thursday in my opinion.

the chief medical officer has been pointing to 200 community cases as the basis for easing. Not sure what the current “community vs. Long-term housing“ spread is.


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> Sorry to hear this about Ontario. Still looking pretty dangerous there.
> 
> Here in MB, things are open, but I think some people are getting complacent and will quickly forget about the risk. For example I was at a store near a shelf full of hand sanitizer & disinfectant, and I overheard a woman saying: "kind of dumb that all of this is available *now that the virus is over*".
> 
> That shows a major misunderstanding. The virus problem is NOT over and it can come back in the blink of an eye.


you could make some Money shipping sanitizer to Ontario.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> you could make some Money shipping sanitizer to Ontario.


I was actually hoping the local business which produce this could get it to the market themselves. One is a small health supply company in Winkler MB and the distillery which makes the good stuff (80% ethanol) is based in SK. There are probably some regulatory issues with shipping high % ethanol across provincial borders. I talked to the distillery and they said they only fulfil orders within SK & MB.

That 80% ethanol is amazing stuff. Can use it as hand cleaner, sanitizer for objects, to wipe surfaces, and a general disinfectant. No harsh fumes like bleach or other cleaners. A suggestion for people in other provinces is: phone distilleries in your region. Ask if they sell something similar, and ask which stores buy their inventory.

In Winnipeg, it's basically impossible to find hand sanitizer... except for one particular store chain which has enormous amounts of the stuff. It's because they buy it from a couple local suppliers. Even drug store chains don't have it, but one particular store does.


----------



## Money172375

I just looked at the bottle we’re using. From a dollar store. On the approved government list. Price tag says $3 for 750ml. Good luck finding those prices now. Canadian Tire apparently has some. 60ml for $4.


----------



## andrewf

james4beach said:


> Sorry to hear this about Ontario. Still looking pretty dangerous there.
> 
> Here in MB, things are open, but I think some people are getting complacent and will quickly forget about the risk. For example I was at a store near a shelf full of hand sanitizer & disinfectant, and I overheard a woman saying: "kind of dumb that all of this is available *now that the virus is over*".
> 
> That shows a major misunderstanding. The virus problem is NOT over and it can come back in the blink of an eye.


New daily cases in Ontario has been trending down.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> Perhaps Mukhang Pera can tell you just how much it is likely to cost you if I choose to pursue the suit.
> 
> If I were you, I would take care as to just what I write online about another person. One of the biggest online travel forums, went through a real nightmare some years ago for just this kind of thing and in fact it resulted not only in changes in their forum but in many other forums as well when they discovered that not only could a person posting in a forum be sued but so could the forum for allowing it.


Oh boy, could get costly jargey me lad. With LTA, we can expect the litigation to be hard-fought. Everything will be on the table. There will be pleas for general, punitive and exemplary damages. It will probably take 20 court days if tried before a judge alone, longer for a jury trial. Your own legal fees will easily exceed $100,000. In BC, at least, there would be court day fees incurred. LTA, if successful, will seek an award of costs at the highest level. Sometimes called "special costs", "solicitor-client costs" or "costs as between a solicitor and his own client". That means you'll have to bear all of your own costs and almost all of LTA's, as well as having to pay any judgment award. Maybe you should be thinking of publishing a timeous apology and retraction. Try to limit the loss.

Of course, on the other hand, perhaps publishing on the web that LTA is the guy in the pink shirt is not defamatory at all. 

Some insight into the law of defamation may be gleaned from this recent BC case:



https://www.bccourts.ca/jdb-txt/sc/18/02/2018BCSC0205.htm



In brief compass, the case shaped up thus:

DEFAMATION — Principles • Defendant, climatologist and skeptic about climate change, writing article, thesis of which was that modern climate science had been corrupted by money and politics — Article making reference to plaintiff, also a climatologist and very public advocate of views opposing defendant’s — Plaintiff’s action for defamation dismissed — Article being a poorly written and unsubstantiated opinion piece and no reasonably informed reader would take defendant’s derogatory remarks about plaintiff as actually denigrating plaintiff’s professional reputation.

Some of the pith and substance of defamation law is set out in the judgment at para. 34 _et seq_.:

[34] The function of defamation law is to protect and vindicate reputation from unjustified harm. Reputation is integral to one's sense of self-worth and is related to the inherent dignity of the individual, an underlying value of the Charter. Once tarnished, restoring one’s reputation may be difficult, especially in a professional context. However, its protection must be balanced with the Charter guarantee of freedom of expression, a recognised pillar of modern democracy: Weaver v. Corcoran, 2017 BCCA 160 [Weaver], at para. 62; Botiuk v. Toronto Free Press Publications Ltd., [1995] 3 S.C.R. 3 [Botiuk], at paras. 91-92.

[35] To establish a claim in defamation, a plaintiff must establish three elements: i) that the impugned words were defamatory; ii) that they referred to the plaintiff; and iii) that they were published, meaning that they were communicated to at least one other person. Where the plaintiff establishes these elements, falsity and damage are presumed and the onus shifts to the defendant to advance a defence in order to escape liability. Defamation is a tort of strict liability, so it is unnecessary to prove that the defendant was careless or intended to cause harm (Grant v. Torstar Corp., 2009 SCC 61 [Grant], at paras. 28-29).

[36] Words that tend to lower the plaintiff's reputation in the eyes of a reasonable person are defamatory: Grant, at para. 28. For example, allegations of dishonest conduct in an individual’s professional life will typically meet this definition: Botiuk, at paras. 69, 92. The central question is whether the meaning conveyed by the impugned words genuinely threatened the plaintiff's actual reputation: Vander Zalm v. Times Publishers (1980), 109 D.L.R. (3d) 531 (B.C.C.A.) [Vander Zalm], at 535; Dinyer-Fraser v. Laurentian Bank, 2005 BCSC 225, at para. 153.

[37] One of the challenges in defamation cases is that words are imprecise instruments of communication. The same words used in a particular context may lead different minds to reach divergent conclusions for variant reasons (Weaver, at para. 69). Not every criticism of a person or disparaging comment is defamatory. A defamatory statement is one that has a tendency to lower the reputation of the person to whom it refers in the estimation of right-thinking members of society generally and, in particular, to cause him or her to be regarded with feelings of hatred, contempt, ridicule, fear, dislike or disesteem. The test is an objective one.
***
Difficulties I can see with LTA's case are numerous. Perhaps the biggest roadblock to success may be seen by asking the question: What right does one have to protect from defamatory attacks one's alter ego projected onto the internet? Who is "Lontimeago" anyway? Is LTA a persona capable of being defamed? Perhaps so if LTA's true identity is open and notorious - we all know who he or she is in real life. I have not taken time this morning to research, but I have read all BC defamation cases since before the advent of the internet, and I do not recall seeing one where one's adopted anonymous internet identity was held entitled to protection from libelous stings. But I know LTA will retain leading counsel who will leave no stone unturned in advancing a novel claim. That is how the law evolves. As that master of the language and the law - Cardozo J. - remarked long ago: "The inn that gives shelter for the night is not the journey's end. The law, like the traveler, must be ready for tomorrow." 

So LTA won't be dissuaded easily. And, should he lose at trial, I can see an appeal coming. And maybe even an appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada. This could turn into a litigation extravaganza!


----------



## Plugging Along

james4beach said:


> I was actually hoping the local business which produce this could get it to the market themselves. One is a small health supply company in Winkler MB and the distillery which makes the good stuff (80% ethanol) is based in SK. There are probably some regulatory issues with shipping high % ethanol across provincial borders. I talked to the distillery and they said they only fulfil orders within SK & MB.
> 
> That 80% ethanol is amazing stuff. Can use it as hand cleaner, sanitizer for objects, to wipe surfaces, and a general disinfectant. No harsh fumes like bleach or other cleaners. A suggestion for people in other provinces is: phone distilleries in your region. Ask if they sell something similar, and ask which stores buy their inventory.
> 
> In Winnipeg, it's basically impossible to find hand sanitizer... except for one particular store chain which has enormous amounts of the stuff. It's because they buy it from a couple local suppliers. Even drug store chains don't have it, but one particular store does.


It's not too bad in my city, maybe because there have been quite a few distilleries here. Shipping is a limitation.

If you were incorporated in the IT industry, you could have gotten rubbing alcohol from computer supply shops. Rubbing alcohol was flying off the shelf early on. There is a supplier here that could only supply to commercial groups in a minimum one gallon jug. We paid $30 for almost 4 liters, and I have been able to make my own sanitizer since. My spouse even asked if we should get the 50 gallon drum. I thought he was a little crazy. In retrospect, I probably should have. I had been given lots away to friends, family, and some charities. Now, I can't give much more away. I could have also made a fortune reselling it in smaller quantities. Oh well. I am just happy its not something I am looking for these days.


----------



## Mukhang pera

james4beach said:


> That 80% ethanol is amazing stuff. Can use it as hand cleaner, sanitizer for objects, to wipe surfaces, and a general disinfectant. No harsh fumes like bleach or other cleaners. A suggestion for people in other provinces is: phone distilleries in your region. Ask if they sell something similar, and ask which stores buy their inventory.


Amazing indeed. You can also host a party with it, use it to power your car in a pinch, heat your home with it, cook over an ethanol flame...too many uses to mention!


----------



## jargey3000

Longtimeago said:


> You do realize jargey3000 that by saying the guy in pink is me, you are in fact committing defamation of my character in the form of libel since it is written and also as you identify me as someone in a picture.
> 
> Since there will be no difficulty whatsoever in proving that it is not me in the picture, you haven't a legal leg to stand on jargey3000. You are entirely open to my suing you for libel.
> 
> Perhaps Mukhang Pera can tell you just how much it is likely to cost you if I choose to pursue the suit.
> 
> If I were you, I would take care as to just what I write online about another person. One of the biggest online travel forums, went through a real nightmare some years ago for just this kind of thing and in fact it resulted not only in changes in their forum but in many other forums as well when they discovered that not only could a person posting in a forum be sued but so could the forum for allowing it.


I BEG THE COURT'S PARDON YOUR HONOR.
I MIS-IDENTIFIED THE INDIVIDUAL IN THE PINK SHIRT. LET THE RECORD SHOW I PUBLICLY APOLOGIZE TO LTA. SO SORRY FOR THE ERROR!
IT IS, IN FACT,....MR. MATT!


----------



## jargey3000

sags said:


> Cash for clunkers announced.
> 
> Seniors collecting OAS will get $300 and those collecting OAS/GIS will collect $500. It is a one time benefit paid this month.
> 
> We will get $600 so maybe buy a new fridge so we can stock more food items. Thanks JT !


 I'ma buy 2 shares of AAPL!


----------



## Beaver101

jargey3000 said:


> I BEG THE COURT'S PARDON YOUR HONOR.
> I MIS-IDENTIFIED THE INDIVIDUAL IN THE PINK SHIRT. LET THE RECORD SHOW I PUBLICLY APOLOGIZE TO LTA. SO SORRY FOR THE ERROR!
> IT IS, IN FACT,....MR. MATT!


 .... you're too cute!


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> Oh boy, could get costly jargey me lad. With LTA, we can expect the litigation to be hard-fought.  Everything will be on the table. There will be pleas for general, punitive and exemplary damages. It will probably take 20 court days if tried before a judge alone, longer for a jury trial. Your own legal fees will easily exceed $100,000. In BC, at least, there would be court day fees incurred. LTA, if successful, will seek an award of costs at the highest level. Sometimes called "special costs", "solicitor-client costs" or "costs as between a solicitor and his own client". That means you'll have to bear all of your own costs and almost all of LTA's, as well as having to pay any judgment award. Maybe you should be thinking of publishing a timeous apology and retraction. Try to limit the loss.
> 
> Of course, on the other hand, perhaps publishing on the web that LTA is the guy in the pink shirt is not defamatory at all.
> 
> Some insight into the law of defamation may be gleaned from this recent BC case:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bccourts.ca/jdb-txt/sc/18/02/2018BCSC0205.htm
> 
> 
> 
> In brief compass, the case shaped up thus:
> 
> DEFAMATION — Principles • Defendant, climatologist and skeptic about climate change, writing article, thesis of which was that modern climate science had been corrupted by money and politics — Article making reference to plaintiff, also a climatologist and very public advocate of views opposing defendant’s — Plaintiff’s action for defamation dismissed — Article being a poorly written and unsubstantiated opinion piece and no reasonably informed reader would take defendant’s derogatory remarks about plaintiff as actually denigrating plaintiff’s professional reputation.
> 
> Some of the pith and substance of defamation law is set out in the judgment at para. 34 _et seq_.:
> 
> [34] The function of defamation law is to protect and vindicate reputation from unjustified harm. Reputation is integral to one's sense of self-worth and is related to the inherent dignity of the individual, an underlying value of the Charter. Once tarnished, restoring one’s reputation may be difficult, especially in a professional context. However, its protection must be balanced with the Charter guarantee of freedom of expression, a recognised pillar of modern democracy: Weaver v. Corcoran, 2017 BCCA 160 [Weaver], at para. 62; Botiuk v. Toronto Free Press Publications Ltd., [1995] 3 S.C.R. 3 [Botiuk], at paras. 91-92.
> 
> [35] To establish a claim in defamation, a plaintiff must establish three elements: i) that the impugned words were defamatory; ii) that they referred to the plaintiff; and iii) that they were published, meaning that they were communicated to at least one other person. Where the plaintiff establishes these elements, falsity and damage are presumed and the onus shifts to the defendant to advance a defence in order to escape liability. Defamation is a tort of strict liability, so it is unnecessary to prove that the defendant was careless or intended to cause harm (Grant v. Torstar Corp., 2009 SCC 61 [Grant], at paras. 28-29).
> 
> [36] Words that tend to lower the plaintiff's reputation in the eyes of a reasonable person are defamatory: Grant, at para. 28. For example, allegations of dishonest conduct in an individual’s professional life will typically meet this definition: Botiuk, at paras. 69, 92. The central question is whether the meaning conveyed by the impugned words genuinely threatened the plaintiff's actual reputation: Vander Zalm v. Times Publishers (1980), 109 D.L.R. (3d) 531 (B.C.C.A.) [Vander Zalm], at 535; Dinyer-Fraser v. Laurentian Bank, 2005 BCSC 225, at para. 153.
> 
> [37] One of the challenges in defamation cases is that words are imprecise instruments of communication. The same words used in a particular context may lead different minds to reach divergent conclusions for variant reasons (Weaver, at para. 69). Not every criticism of a person or disparaging comment is defamatory. A defamatory statement is one that has a tendency to lower the reputation of the person to whom it refers in the estimation of right-thinking members of society generally and, in particular, to cause him or her to be regarded with feelings of hatred, contempt, ridicule, fear, dislike or disesteem. The test is an objective one.
> ***
> Difficulties I can see with LTA's case are numerous. Perhaps the biggest roadblock to success may be seen by asking the question: What right does one have to protect from defamatory attacks one's alter ego projected onto the internet? Who is "Lontimeago" anyway? Is LTA a persona capable of being defamed? Perhaps so if LTA's true identity is open and notorious - we all know who he or she is in real life. I have not taken time this morning to research, but I have read all BC defamation cases since before the advent of the internet, and I do not recall seeing one where one's adopted anonymous internet identity was held entitled to protection from libelous stings. But I know LTA will retain leading counsel who will leave no stone unturned in advancing a novel claim. That is how the law evolves. As that master of the language and the law - Cardozo J. - remarked long ago: "The inn that gives shelter for the night is not the journey's end. The law, like the traveler, must be ready for tomorrow."
> 
> So LTA won't be dissuaded easily. And, should he lose at trial, I can see an appeal coming. And maybe even an appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada. This could turn into a litigation extravaganza!



The thing I like about law suits Mukhang Pera is that you don't have to win the suit to win. 

I can file a suit, hire a cheap lawyer and lose. May cost me a bit but that's OK if in the meantime the person I am suing is ruined. And who knows, I just might get lucky and win, that would just be icing on the cake. Trump has made a career out of it I believe.


----------



## Plugging Along

I would love to see how an anonymous persona on a forum will sue an another anonymous persona. Even with the cheap lawyer, it's not going to be cheap. 

Maybe LTA would set up a GoFundMe page. If I could watch the silliness and stupidity, I would pay to watch.


----------



## ian

We have significant covid differences in Alberta between regions. Edmonton was sitting at 500 odd cases. Calgary at about 4200 cases as per a few days ago.


----------



## Plugging Along

jargey3000 said:


> I BEG THE COURT'S PARDON YOUR HONOR.
> I MIS-IDENTIFIED THE INDIVIDUAL IN THE PINK SHIRT. LET THE RECORD SHOW I PUBLICLY APOLOGIZE TO LTA. SO SORRY FOR THE ERROR!
> IT IS, IN FACT,....MR. MATT!


Careful Jargey. Someone here may be indeed the person in the pink shirt. I was him, I would be offended that you thought LTA was him. Then you would be really in trouble with the real Pink Shirt man, as he is a real person and you made an insulting reference with LTA. Maybe the Mr. Matt reference might make him feel better though.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> The thing I like about law suits Mukhang Pera is that you don't have to win the suit to win.
> 
> I can file a suit, hire a cheap lawyer and lose. May cost me a bit but that's OK if in the meantime the person I am suing is ruined. And who knows, I just might get lucky and win, that would just be icing on the cake. Trump has made a career out of it I believe.


Oh, I'm sure nobody has ever thought of that.
Vexatious litigation - Wikipedia


----------



## Eder




----------



## Mukhang pera

Plugging Along said:


> I would love to see how an anonymous persona on a forum will sue an another anonymous persona. Even with the cheap lawyer, it's not going to be cheap.
> 
> Maybe LTA would set up a GoFundMe page. If I could watch the silliness and stupidity, I would pay to watch.


Good points PA. Elsewhere today, LTA posted:



Longtimeago said:


> Hey sags, how come I don't see you having posted about all seniors who get OAS, are going to be getting a $300 handout and $500 if they are also receiving GIS?
> 
> ***
> I actually feel somewhat guilty that I will receive this money when I don't need it at all. I'm open to suggestions as to how I might dispose of it back into the Covid19 situation. I was thinking about maybe using it to buy lunch for all the staff at our local Foodland for example. With $600 (my wife and I) I could buy them all a heck of a nice meal even including all the part time workers I think. It's a small Foodland.


Perhaps instead of extending that magnanimous gesture to the elves at Foodland, he should apply that gift of Tru Dough to his war chest for the suit designed to lay waste to jargey for his ill-considered and contumelious "pink shirt" calumny. Jargey must be made to feel the lash for his opprobrious conduct. But it will cost.

An initial expense will be getting a court order directing CMF to disclose what it knows about the true identity of jargey, including ISP address. There might then have to be a subpoena to the ISP to disclose what it knows about the subscriber. It might take a bit to dig up the identity of the person to be named as defendant.

I suppose one could skip over the niceties of using proper names and start a suit with a style of cause that would look something like:

* IN THE SUPREME COURT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA*




Docket: M142641

Registry: Vancouver​
Between:

*Longtimeago*​
Plaintiff​
And:

*jargey3000*​
Defendant​
*Notice of Civil Claim*​


----------



## cainvest

Eder said:


> View attachment 20167


Hey, does that remind you of someone here?


----------



## cainvest

Back on with the provincial covid .... three days now with ZERO new cases! 
Another week (or two) of low numbers and I think they'll start with phase 2.


----------



## Beaver101

ian said:


> We have significant covid differences in Alberta between regions. Edmonton was sitting at 500 odd cases. Calgary at about 4200 cases as per a few days ago.


 ... how's that? Or what's the reason for that from Alberta's Public (or regional) Health authorities?


----------



## Beaver101

Mukhang pera said:


> Good points PA. Elsewhere today, LTA posted:
> 
> 
> 
> Perhaps instead of extending that magnanimous gesture to the elves at Foodland, he should apply that gift of Tru Dough to his war chest for the suit designed to lay waste to jargey for his ill-considered and contumelious "pink shirt" calumny. Jargey must be made to feel the lash for his opprobrious conduct. But it will cost.
> 
> An initial expense will be getting a court order directing CMF to disclose what it knows about the true identity of jargey, including ISP address. There might then have to be a subpoena to the ISP to disclose what it knows about the subscriber. It might take a bit to dig up the identity of the person to be named as defendant.
> 
> I suppose one could skip over the niceties of using proper names and start a suit with a style of cause that would look something like:
> 
> * IN THE SUPREME COURT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Docket: M142641
> 
> Registry: Vancouver​
> Between:
> 
> *Longtimeago*​
> Plaintiff​
> And:
> 
> *jargey3000*​
> Defendant​
> *Notice of Civil Claim*​


 ... so what're the damages? Hurt feelings? Mis-identification? What's wrong with a guy wearing a pink polo shirt? Look pretty tamed compared to Don Cherry's special (flamboyant) suits.


----------



## sags

It sounds like Quebec is backing down from opening and Ontario isn't ready.

Both Provinces still have way too many new cases to deal with. Community spread is still too prevalent.

Nobody wants to be the Premier who opened up too early and got hit with a second wave that caused major outbreaks.

Best they wait for the "all clear" signal from Ottawa. There is news that there might be a vaccine as early as September anyways.


----------



## james4beach

Here's another provincial difference: Ontario and Quebec border the northeast US and NY state, which have a serious outbreak.

I was talking with a friend of mine from my home town in southern Ontario. Some time ago, his family moved to the US and they still live in NY state. We should not forget how closely linked Canadians and Americans are in that region. There are many families who are spread over both sides of the border.

My friend's brother recently drove from NY into Ontario. They got through the border because they are Canadian citizens, and were required to self isolate for 14 days.

Every day, there are people crossing the Ontario/US border to visit family or take care of urgent family needs. So there is quite a bit of population mixing at that border.


----------



## Longtimeago

Plugging Along said:


> I would love to see how an anonymous persona on a forum will sue an another anonymous persona. Even with the cheap lawyer, it's not going to be cheap.
> 
> Maybe LTA would set up a GoFundMe page. If I could watch the silliness and stupidity, I would pay to watch.


I guess you have not been keeping up with the times in regard to lawsuits against anonymous online posters Plugging Along. Why not try doing some research before sticking your foot in your mouth. There have been plenty of anonymous posters sued.




__





anonymous online defamation lawsuits - Google Search






www.google.com


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Oh, I'm sure nobody has ever thought of that.
> Vexatious litigation - Wikipedia


Yes it is a well known way to cause someone grief MrMatt. Like I said, Trump has done it repeatedly for decades.


----------



## Longtimeago

Mukhang pera said:


> Good points PA. Elsewhere today, LTA posted:
> 
> 
> 
> Perhaps instead of extending that magnanimous gesture to the elves at Foodland, he should apply that gift of Tru Dough to his war chest for the suit designed to lay waste to jargey for his ill-considered and contumelious "pink shirt" calumny. Jargey must be made to feel the lash for his opprobrious conduct. But it will cost.
> 
> An initial expense will be getting a court order directing CMF to disclose what it knows about the true identity of jargey, including ISP address. There might then have to be a subpoena to the ISP to disclose what it knows about the subscriber. It might take a bit to dig up the identity of the person to be named as defendant.
> 
> I suppose one could skip over the niceties of using proper names and start a suit with a style of cause that would look something like:
> 
> * IN THE SUPREME COURT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Docket: M142641
> 
> Registry: Vancouver​
> Between:
> 
> *Longtimeago*​
> Plaintiff​
> And:
> 
> *jargey3000*​
> Defendant​
> *Notice of Civil Claim*​


The process followed to file suit against an anonymous online poster is now well laid out Mukhang pera. There is probably 'boiler plate' templates these days that can be used by any Law Clerk to get the ball rolling. But keep this between you and I, don't tell anyone, especially Jargey3000, I have a secret weapon I could deploy. As it happens, I have a granddaughter who is a lawyer. So no need to re-direct my gift money from the federal government to a war chest. My granddaughter owes me a few so I could have her handle it at no charge. LOL


----------



## Eder

I don't know how you got off my ignore list but I just fixed the problem.


----------



## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> ... so what're the damages? Hurt feelings? Mis-identification? What's wrong with a guy wearing a pink polo shirt? Look pretty tamed compared to Don Cherry's special (flamboyant) suits.


It's not the pink shirt Beaver101, it's that the actor is nowhere near as good looking as I am. Highly insulting indeed, imagine some thinking I might look like that guy. If the picture had been say Brad Pitt or Pierce Brosnan or some other good looking actor in a pink shirt I would not have had any objection. 

For instance, if jargey3000 had linked this article and said it was me getting a haircut once easing up allowed haircutters to work again, I would not have objected. 








The Rock: Sean Connery's Navy Three-Piece Suit – Bond Suits


A happy 85th birthday today to Sean Connery. In The Rock, Sean Connery plays John Mason, a British national who escaped from Alcatraz. The Mason character was written as an homage to Bond and has a lot in common with Bond. John Spencer’s character FBI Director Womack states that Mason is a...




www.bondsuits.com


----------



## ian

My spouse pointed something out to me this morning. She said to look at some of the politicians who have not had haircuts. Among them Trudeau and others-all of various political stripes. Then notice the ones who are obviously having their hair coiffed in spite of the covid regs. Our premier, Jason Kenny, is clearly one who is getting his hair cut on a regular basis.


----------



## MrMatt

ian said:


> My spouse pointed something out to me this morning. She said to look at some of the politicians who have not had haircuts. Among them Trudeau and others-all of various political stripes. Then notice the ones who are obviously having their hair coiffed in spite of the covid regs. Our premier, Jason Kenny, is clearly one who is getting his hair cut on a regular basis.


Cuttting hair is "easy".
I'm cutting my one sons hair, he likes it, and might not go back to the barber.
the other doesn't.


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> It's not the pink shirt Beaver101, it's that the actor is nowhere near as good looking as I am. *Highly insulting indeed, *imagine some thinking I might look like that guy. If the picture had been say Brad Pitt or Pierce Brosnan or some other good looking actor in a pink shirt I would not have had any objection.


 ... so it was 'hurt feelings' as in your eyes that pink-shirted actor whom jargey referenced (probably admired) wasn't that 'good-looking' so he couldn't possibly resemble you. Hmmm... what are the damages? MP, your expertise needed here.



> For instance, *if jargey3000 had linked this article* and said it was me getting a haircut once easing up allowed haircutters to work again, I would not have objected.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rock: Sean Connery's Navy Three-Piece Suit – Bond Suits
> 
> 
> A happy 85th birthday today to Sean Connery. In The Rock, Sean Connery plays John Mason, a British national who escaped from Alcatraz. The Mason character was written as an homage to Bond and has a lot in common with Bond. John Spencer’s character FBI Director Womack states that Mason is a...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bondsuits.com


 ... so you wished. No one can beat Sean Connery's classiness (aside from professionalism).


----------



## Longtimeago

Beaver101 said:


> ... so it was 'hurt feelings' as in your eyes that pink-shirted actor whom jargey referenced (probably admired) wasn't that 'good-looking' so he couldn't possibly resemble you. Hmmm... what are the damages? MP, your expertise needed here.
> 
> ... so you wished. No one can beat Sean Connery's classiness (aside from professionalism).


Now you are getting the point Beaver101, I have always been considered a 'classy' looking guy (pardon me for having to blow my own horn here). The pink shirt guy is far from classy and therefore insulting and misrepresentative of me. Can't have that happening. If someone is going to post a picture of someone and say it represents me, it has to at least represent me properly.


----------



## Prairie Guy

ian said:


> My spouse pointed something out to me this morning. She said to look at some of the politicians who have not had haircuts. Among them Trudeau and others-all of various political stripes. Then notice the ones who are obviously having their hair coiffed in spite of the covid regs. Our premier, Jason Kenny, is clearly one who is getting his hair cut on a regular basis.


How did she miss that someone is dyeing Trudeau's hair?


----------



## Plugging Along

… not worth it


----------



## sags

Trudeau is going for the "rugged outdoorsman" look.

He should wear a checkered flannel shirt and orange hunting vest at a press conference..........and Conservatives will set their own hair on fire.


----------



## Prairie Guy

No matter what Trudeau wears he's just a man child playing dress up.


----------



## Mukhang pera

Longtimeago said:


> The process followed to file suit against an anonymous online poster is now well laid out Mukhang pera. There is probably 'boiler plate' templates these days that can be used by any Law Clerk to get the ball rolling. But keep this between you and I, don't tell anyone, especially Jargey3000, I have a secret weapon I could deploy. As it happens, I have a granddaughter who is a lawyer. So no need to re-direct my gift money from the federal government to a war chest. My granddaughter owes me a few so I could have her handle it at no charge. LOL


LTA, I promise not to divulge that you have more in your armoury than just bluff and bluster.

Apropos this topic, here's a BC Supreme Court decision from just a month ago, about defamation occurring on an internet forum. Two women duking it out with vituperous posts over a lengthy period. Each posted under anonymous names, but, in the course of doing so, revealed the true identity of the other person. It was not a case of anonymous poster suing anonymous poster which, as I have said before, I have not seen done successfully or even tried. Here, the judge talks about how one can be defamed, even where the attack is on the person's adopted internet handle, but there must be something that allows other readers to know the true identity of that person.






__





2020 BCSC 490 Lu v. Shen






www.bccourts.ca





The case runs to 72 printed pages and there's a lot of boring kredge to wade through. The parties both acted without counsel, and much of the judgment is a wasted effort to bestow a legal education on the combatants. Still, there are some interesting nuggets. There were claims for defamation, intentional infliction of mental suffering and breach of privacy.

With respect to the defamation claims, which is what the case was about for the most part, the following single paragraph gives some notion of what went on:

_[206] I find that Ms. Shen’s words in these posts were defamatory of Ms. Lu. Saying that someone is a liar, a slut and a *****, and someone who deceives and swindles others, would tend to lower that person’s reputation in the eyes of a reasonable person. I find that Ms. Lu has proved the impugned words are of or concerning her. Indeed, in post no. 5, Ms. Shen identified Ms. Lu by name, and described one of the nicknames, “Bear38,” she would use to refer to Ms. Lu._

Ed. note: It occurs to me that CMF refers to Children's Money Forum. There's a word from the judgment that I see has been censored, replaced with ****. How mature. The redacted term is that used for a female canine. Much too harsh for the shell pink ears of the denizens of this forum. I hope the Supreme Court judge who permitted that to be published on the web will be removed from the bench.

Anyway, silliness aside, both parties were awarded damages for defamation ($5,000) and for breach of privacy ($4,000 and $3,500 respectively). The only losers here were the taxpayers. The parties would have paid filing fees of $200 apiece and, because the trial ran over 3 days, court day fees of $500 would be payable 2 of the 5 trial days. So, total paid to the Crown was $1,400. That covered the judge's lunch money. 

The quantum of damages might appear to some as on the modest side. Perhaps saying that someone is a liar, a slut and a ***** (here we go again...pls. insert female canine), and someone who deceives and swindles others, is not nearly as damning as the calumny hurled at LTA, suggesting he was the fellow in the pink shirt. I think that would sound in very substantial damages indeed! Likely to commit both jargey3000 and CMF to receivership.


----------



## sags

What about a white sport coat and a pink carnation ?


----------



## Mukhang pera

sags said:


> What about a white sport coat and a pink carnation ?


So, so. I prefer my own impeccable style, immortalized here:


----------



## Beaver101

^ Immortallized alright with a black & white video for "pink" shoelaces. I'm getting colour-blinded.


----------



## like_to_retire

Mukhang pera said:


> So, so. I prefer my own impeccable style, immortalized here:



What the heck is that thing she's holding in her hand with the wires on it?

ltr


----------



## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> Here's another provincial difference: Ontario and Quebec border the northeast US and NY state, which have a serious outbreak ... Every day, there are people crossing the Ontario/US border to visit family or take care of urgent family needs. So there is quite a bit of population mixing at that border.


Plus the approximately 1600 Canadian nurses crossing the border daily to work in Detroit.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/amherstburg-nurse-windsor-border-detroit-covid-19-1.5513363



This article puts it as high at 2,000.








Thousands Of Canadians Are Crossing The Border To Help The US Respond To The Coronavirus Outbreak


There are 1,500 to 2,000 health care workers living in Windsor, Ontario, who regularly cross the border to work in the Detroit area.




www.buzzfeednews.com






Cheers


----------



## sags

like_to_retire said:


> What the heck is that thing she's holding in her hand with the wires on it?
> 
> ltr


That was when you could slam the phone down when you were mad at someone. Do it now and it will cost you $1,000 for a new Iphone.


----------



## james4beach

Eclectic12 said:


> Plus the approximately 1600 Canadian nurses crossing the border daily to work in Detroit.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/amherstburg-nurse-windsor-border-detroit-covid-19-1.5513363
> 
> 
> 
> This article puts it as high at 2,000.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thousands Of Canadians Are Crossing The Border To Help The US Respond To The Coronavirus Outbreak
> 
> 
> There are 1,500 to 2,000 health care workers living in Windsor, Ontario, who regularly cross the border to work in the Detroit area.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.buzzfeednews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers


Thanks. I was not aware of this.


----------



## junior minor

*cainvest
Super Moderator*
Joined May 1, 2013
2,965 Posts
#160 • 1 d ago
Back on with the provincial covid .... three days now with ZERO new cases! 
Another week (or two) of low numbers and I think they'll start with phase 2.


_as in reply to the above post from two pages back_

What province, cainvest? Quebec just bumped montreal back into ''no fun til it's all done&gone'' zone for at least 1&1/2 month more. (Right after July 2nd, to be precise) and I was reading about air canada admitting they won't be able to pick up the pace until 2022 or something. Quite depressing it is, for the people counting on that. Bombardier got hit even harder, I don't know for the western canada oil stocks...

...anyways. I found some flights on westjet.ca and hereis the information that tells about the ''later is going to be better'' for the nation-wideairplane company.


Air Canada is losing its propensity to make profits while on a flight lockdown. The bleeding will continue as aircraft maintenance costs are a must. Also, the deal to acquire *Transat* to boost Air Canada’s leisure business won’t be moving forward. The pandemic has torpedoed the transaction and is not a priority now.
Air Passenger Rights mentioned two proposed class-against lawsuits against Canadian airlines, including Air Canada. The cases will demand full refunds to customers due to flight cancellations.
*Losing proposition*
The federal government’s back is against the wall. Even with a bailout, Air Canada’s future is uncertain. First, the industry needs to stabilize. Second, lifting travel restrictions will not guarantee that travel demand returns quickly to pre-corona levels. Last, Air Canada admits that the recovery period will take no less than three years.
(yesterday's news, quite recent nonetheless)


----------



## junior minor

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views


Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.




ca.reuters.com





It's none of my business yet I lived&worked in Tory Alta so I'm just having thoughts regarding the ''progressive opening'' and ''maximum fifteen people gathering'' . What's the result on this? That article (two days ago) only mentions how people aren't too keen on using the app mentioned here, may 1st.









Not mandatory: Alberta launches COVID-19 mobile contact-tracing app


EDMONTON - Alberta is launching a voluntary mobile app to expand contact tracing for COVID-19 to help red...




ckpgtoday.ca




case counts and hospitalizations remain stable, a more widespread reopening is set for May 14.
At that time, retailers, museums and art galleries, daycares, hairstylists and barber shops are to be allowed to open, but public gatherings will still be restricted to no more than 15 people.
Arenas, gyms, pools, movie theatres and nightclubs are to open down the road, depending on case counts and hospitalizations.

_edit_ : that article from global points at what's acceptable as opposed to what is not. It was published yesterday. Can you visit family and friends? Here’s a breakdown of the rules by province


----------



## cainvest

junior minor said:


> What province, cainvest?


Manitoba


----------



## Longtimeago

Eclectic12 said:


> Plus the approximately 1600 Canadian nurses crossing the border daily to work in Detroit.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/amherstburg-nurse-windsor-border-detroit-covid-19-1.5513363
> 
> 
> 
> This article puts it as high at 2,000.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thousands Of Canadians Are Crossing The Border To Help The US Respond To The Coronavirus Outbreak
> 
> 
> There are 1,500 to 2,000 health care workers living in Windsor, Ontario, who regularly cross the border to work in the Detroit area.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.buzzfeednews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers


I don't know what the actual situation is and the media reports are far from clear. I've read 1600 workers cross and I've read only 57 do. Windsor cross border healthcare workers asked to pick one location

What does seem to be clear is that those who cross were asked to pick one side or the other to work in. So while they may be crossing to and from home, they are not going from hospital to hospital.

While some people are crossing the border as 'essential travel' like truck drivers or nurses, they are in any case a trickle compared to what the numbers would be if tourism travel were to be allowed. As long as that is not allowed, cross border travel does not worry me too much.


----------



## Beaver101

Premier Ford releases ‘Cooking with Doug’ video of cherry cheesecake recipe

I'm not a fan of any political party. But you got to give some brownie points to our premier (ON) Doug Ford, during these unprecedent times.


----------



## Fain87

Ford's Coronavirus numbers while not terrible, are nothing to brag about. I'm disappointed with his response to Coronavirus so far.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Compared to another politician? Has to be an even-playing field.


----------



## sags

I see a similarity between Donald Trump and Doug Ford, in that both were elected as conservatives when they were not really die hard conservatives.

Running for conservative parties gave both an opportunity to run for a major political party. It was an opportune moment for them.

Both initially acquiesced to their more conservative members in their policies. The difference is when Ford got burned by them, he shuffled his cabinet, apologized to those affected and changed the policy direction.

While Ford changed course and pivoted to more central policies, Trump doubled down on conservatism influenced by the alt right in the GOP.

Ford refused to campaign for Andrew Scheer in the election. He is not interested in right wing or left wing policies. He is trying to find the right policies.

Trump is only ever interested in what he thinks is best for him. He couldn't care less how many people die from COVID.

I give Ford credit for growing in the job, just as I give Trudeau credit for the same. Both are doing a good job in a difficult situation.

If both can lead through this crisis, they can lead through anything that may come.


----------



## MrMatt

Fain87 said:


> Ford's Coronavirus numbers while not terrible, are nothing to brag about. I'm disappointed with his response to Coronavirus so far.


How so?

I thought he's done well, he's working hard, not blaming, and remaining focused on the key issues.

He's also doing team conferences and having the responsible ministers talk, it isn't a one man show, which is good, because some, such as Christine Elliot, are smarter than he is.


----------



## Fain87

MrMatt said:


> How so?
> 
> I thought he's done well, he's working hard, not blaming, and remaining focused on the key issues.
> 
> He's also doing team conferences and having the responsible ministers talk, it isn't a one man show, which is good, because some, such as Christine Elliot, are smarter than he is.


Numbers of COVID Infections and number of COVID Deaths. 

The press conferences are good and all but the numbers are a more important measure of success. 

In baseball, I judge someone on their batting average, not the comments in the after-game press conferences.

Ford numbers aren't terrible but he needs to improve his numbers.


----------



## MrMatt

Fain87 said:


> Numbers of COVID Infections and number of COVID Deaths.
> 
> The press conferences are good and all but the numbers are a more important measure of success.
> 
> In baseball, I judge someone on their batting average, not the comments in the after-game press conferences.
> 
> Ford numbers aren't terrible but he needs to improve his numbers.


I think you have to judge based on the actions and things under their control.
They can't actually lock everyone in their houses, like they did in some jurisdictions.

I think Canadian political leaders have done a decent job at getting people to generally comply, controlling the spread, and taking care of people.
I think the handouts are unfair, and poorly executed.

I wouldn't say that Quebec leaders are doing worse than BC. BC just got lucky.


----------



## Fain87

MrMatt said:


> I think you have to judge based on the actions and things under their control.
> They can't actually lock everyone in their houses, like they did in some jurisdictions.
> 
> I think Canadian political leaders have done a decent job at getting people to generally comply, controlling the spread, and taking care of people.
> I think the handouts are unfair, and poorly executed.
> 
> I wouldn't say that Quebec leaders are doing worse than BC. BC just got lucky.


I'd prefer to judge based on objective measures like Infections and deaths. Words and assurances are more subjective and open to spin. 

That said, he isn't terrible on the numbers but he's also not in the range where I would say he's doing good. 

He has lots to do to improve Ontario's numbers.


----------



## Eder

You have garbage data...only thing you have accurate is deaths....so I'm thinking you just dislike Ford (and most likely Kenney) but love JT,


----------



## Fain87

Eder said:


> You have garbage data...only thing you have accurate is deaths....so I'm thinking you just dislike Ford (and most likely Kenney) but love JT,


It's the Data that Ford's government is releasing that I'm criticizing. and deaths is most important metric as it's the most serious. 

I voted for Ford bro so i don't dislike him for some partisan reason. I'm just not impressed or satisfied with his performance. Don't bring the sourness from the gun debate thread onto this man. 

His numbers are NOT GOOD.


----------



## MrMatt

Fain87 said:


> It's the Data that Ford's government is releasing that I'm criticizing. and deaths is most important metric as it's the most serious.
> 
> I voted for Ford bro so i don't dislike him for some partisan reason. I'm just not impressed or satisfied with his performance. Don't bring the sourness from the gun debate thread onto this man.
> 
> His numbers are NOT GOOD.


The number of COVID deaths isn't something any politician can control. Sure they might be able to influence, but only so much.
I don't think it's a fair measure of their ability.

What is he actually doing that isn't satisfactory?


----------



## Fain87

MrMatt said:


> The number of COVID deaths isn't something any politician can control. Sure they might be able to influence, but only so much.
> I don't think it's a fair measure of their ability.
> 
> *What is he actually doing that isn't satisfactory?*


Lack of Disclosure, Not disinfecting Public Coronavirus hotspots, lack of temperature checks of citizens, minimal or no testing done at airports & no results with using Technology-based Contact Tracing.

Your making excuses why it's not his fault or excusing him for the lackluster results. We should be holding the highest office in the province to a higher standard.


----------



## MrMatt

Fain87 said:


> Lack of Disclosure, Not disinfecting Public Coronavirus hotspots, lack of temperature checks of citizens, minimal or no testing done at airports & no results with using Technology-based Contact Tracing.
> 
> Your making excuses why it's not his fault or excusing him for the lackluster results. We should be holding the highest office in the province to a higher standard.


Few points.
1. I 'm not sure what disclosure you're expecting. They publish daily data updates, as does each health unit.
2. Disinfecting public hotposts? I'm not sure what you mean. Do you mean walking the streets and spraying them with disinfectant? I'm not sure that makes sense, unless you're disinfecting subways etc. Which of course would be a municipal responsibility anyway. I guess if the city asked for help the Province could assist.
3. Temperature checks? Where and why? The asymptomatic spread is the biggest challenge with this. 
4. Airports are Federal jurisdiction. They should have been shut down in February.
5. I'm not sure what you mean by "Technology based Contact Tracing", but if you mean stuff like illegally private data, yeah, it's good he didn't do that either. Also to make it legal, would again require changes in federal law.


----------



## Fain87

MrMatt said:


> Few points.
> 1. I 'm not sure what disclosure you're expecting. They publish daily data updates, as does each health unit.
> 2. Disinfecting public hotposts? I'm not sure what you mean. Do you mean walking the streets and spraying them with disinfectant? I'm not sure that makes sense, unless you're disinfecting subways etc. Which of course would be a municipal responsibility anyway. I guess if the city asked for help the Province could assist.
> 3. Temperature checks? Where and why? The asymptomatic spread is the biggest challenge with this.
> 4. Airports are Federal jurisdiction. They should have been shut down in February.
> 5. I'm not sure what you mean by "Technology-based Contact Tracing", but if you mean stuff like illegally private data, yeah, it's good he didn't do that either. Also to make it legal, would again require changes in federal law.


Airports are not an embassy and we're not talking about Aviation rules or zoning. Province can still make a ton of rules and decisions. 

Most of the other points you're disputing can easily be found by online research into what other "successful" jurisdictions are doing to reduce their infected/death rates. 

You're saying Doug Ford's response is nothing short of perfect and it's 100% out of his control and are satisfied with he infected count and death count. . . 

It's a careless attitude and "good enough" mentality which delivers


----------



## sags

Every day there are more nursing home deaths....residents or health workers. The public will hold Ford accountable for his actions before the COVID.

That will all come in due time. Many groups, including nurse unions are demanding full public inquiries in the future and the public supports them.

Lawsuits have also been filed against nursing homes, and they will be pointing fingers at the government. It is going to get messy for Ford.


----------



## james4beach

Really good results in several provinces at least.

*Manitoba*: several days with zero or one new cases, basically a "nil" level for much of May. Very much under control right now.

*Newfoundland*: no new cases 9 days in a row. Appears to be under control right now.

*British Columbia*: epidemic curve shows a small trickle of new cases, small versus population. Still a handful of cases reported each day, but only one or two new hospitalizations daily. Appears to be on the brink of being controlled and BC Center for Disease Control says "risk of COVID-19 in BC is the lowest it has been since early March"

BC seems to be proving that this can be controlled, even with a rather large population and high population density. I think that's good news for Ontario. _This can be managed._


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> *Manitoba*: several days with zero or one new cases, basically a "nil" level for much of May. Very much under control right now.


5 days of zero cases as of yesterday. They also allow tests without referrals now. Interested to see what they do for phase 2 in the weeks ahead.


----------



## MrMatt

Fain87 said:


> Airports are not an embassy and we're not talking about Aviation rules or zoning. Province can still make a ton of rules and decisions.
> 
> Most of the other points you're disputing can easily be found by online research into what other "successful" jurisdictions are doing to reduce their infected/death rates.
> 
> You're saying Doug Ford's response is nothing short of perfect and it's 100% out of his control and are satisfied with he infected count and death count. . .
> 
> It's a careless attitude and "good enough" mentality which delivers


One problem in Canada is that people don't understand the roles of different levels of government.
The Federal government should have imposed and enforced border restrictions. That's their responsibility.

Never said that he was perfect, just that he's doing a pretty good job.
Nor did I say it's 100% out of his control.
The reality is that much of the spread is on the behaviour of individual people

I'm actually quite satisfied with the infected & Death counts, they're relatively good and it seems under control.
It isn't like we're in Quebecs situation, where they're trying to open things back up, while still having significant spread.
Or Germany where they've opened up, it's spreading, and the politicians opened the national borders.
Hop across US states, where we have things like Michigans oppressive ban where law enforcement says it's ridiculous and they're not enforcing it. 

No Ford isn't perfect, never claimed that he was. Looking at the actions of other political leaders, I think Ford is doing a better job than many if not most, and I'm glad that he is.

Who said "Good Enough", and the thing is if something is "Good Enough", that literally means it's "Good Enough".
If you need to get to the airport by 9am, and you get there by 8:57, that's "Good enough", and there is nothing wrong with that attitude.

It seems you wanted "better" results, like zero deaths and zero cases, and that would have been nice, but that isn't within the power of the Government.


----------



## Longtimeago

It will be interesting to see if we get a spike around 2 weeks from now, following this long weekend. Remember, there is a lag between transmission happening and it showing up in more cases. 

I was taking some garden waste to our local garden waste yard yesterday and noticed the parking lot at Home Hardware was full of vehicles. There was no line up to go inside so I can only assume that there was no way distancing was being maintained inside the store. 

Number of cases today does not tell us what affect easing up has, we have to wait to see that 2 weeks or more down the road.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> It will be interesting to see if we get a spike around 2 weeks from now, following this long weekend. Remember, there is a lag between transmission happening and it showing up in more cases.
> 
> I was taking some garden waste to our local garden waste yard yesterday and noticed the parking lot at Home Hardware was full of vehicles. There was no line up to go inside so I can only assume that there was no way distancing was being maintained inside the store.
> 
> Number of cases today does not tell us what affect easing up has, we have to wait to see that 2 weeks or more down the road.


I'd put money on a spike in 2 weeks, however the number of cases is so low in someareas, that I think there is virtually no transmission in many centers. 
It's the travelling that will get us.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Number of cases today does not tell us what affect easing up has, we have to wait to see that 2 weeks or more down the road.


That's why they wait a number of weeks before future phases are taken.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> That's why they wait a number of weeks before future phases are taken.


Gee, who would have guessed cainvest. Thanks for stating the obvious.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> I'd put money on a spike in 2 weeks, however the number of cases is so low in someareas, that I think there is virtually no transmission in many centers.
> It's the travelling that will get us.


Yes, I tend to agree with that assessment. In our immediate area, there have been very few cases of community transmission at all. But now that the summer season is arriving, I can foresee people from the cities starting to show up as 'tourists' even if they are only day tripping. What they may bring with them, who knows.

So a day tripper goes into say our local Foodland to buy a Coke and a candy bar and voila, the next thing is it spreads the virus from there. That's why so many smaller towns who get a lot of tourists are not happy at all with the idea of tourism coming back this summer.









'Please stay home': Town locals across Canada urge tourists not to visit this long weekend


Locals of lakeside communities such as picturesque Port Dover, Ont., are asking tourists and cottagers to stay home this long weekend, concerned that an influx of outsiders could expose their communities to COVID-19.



www.ctvnews.ca





Our small town is on a popular motorcycle 'backroad travel' route of some kind. Every weekend, spring through fall and even on weekdays, we see a lot of motorcylces go through town. Many of them stop at Timmy's etc. Every one that does this year will increase the risk for our town residents.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> Gee, who would have guessed cainvest. Thanks for stating the obvious.


Just following your lead as your post was the same, abeit with some local info added.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> It's the travelling that will get us.


Yes, exactly. Travel to/from any foreign country, including the US.


----------



## sags

From what I have seen from my travels and watching neighbors holding bbqs and gatherings in their courtyards.......the second wave is going to be a doozy.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Yes, exactly. Travel to/from any foreign country, including the US.


And travelling from high case areas to low case areas.

The risk is the undetected asymptomatic spread, not the sick people who are in hospitals.


----------



## cainvest

6 days now with zero cases in MB.

It appears many stores here are letting everyone in (except Best Buy). I didn't see any lines at Home Depot or Superstore and their parking lots were nearly full. We'll see how this plays out ...


----------



## Eder

james4beach said:


> Yes, exactly. Travel to/from any foreign country, including the US.


Most of the USA is doing better than Quebec or Ontario,


----------



## james4beach

Earlier I mentioned BC as an interesting case, because the rate of infection & death is surprisingly low for such a large (and dense) population. Bloomberg is running an article on BC's response:
Behind North America's Lowest Death Rate

They credit Dr. Bonnie Henry for acting early. A virologist comments that Dr. Henry "was able to galvanize the public across British Columbia to understand that this was something new and very different". She is a former military doctor, and was also a health officer in Toronto during SARS. Previously worked on Ebola outbreaks in Africa.

What great background experience! I suspect that military experience also gave her an advantage.

Apparently BC was one of the first places in the world to roll out a test, just shortly after January 10. By February, BC was testing more people than all of the United States.

BC expertly tackled outbreaks in nursing homes, having the province take over nursing homes at the first sign of infection.

The health officer also has the power, and the visibility in messaging.



> British Columbia’s top politician, Premier John Horgan, has taken a back seat in the public eye; it’s Henry who presides over daily briefings.
> 
> That has been key, said Peter Berman, a public-health expert at the University of British Columbia. “The same scientist who was empowered to lead this effort also has the authority to issue instructions.”


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> Most of the USA is doing better than Quebec or Ontario,


By what logic?
The US has nearly twice the deaths per capita of Canada.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> By what logic?
> The US has nearly twice the deaths per capita of Canada.


By the logic of someone who wants to see things in a certain way and only in that way.

Like Trump saying that the USA is leading in testing. You take an absolute number and ignore any 'per capita' numbers. You take states that have very low case numbers per capita due to low population density and then compare them to a province with high density and a resulting higher per capita number. So say, Montana vs. Ontario. 

Or maybe you take a state like say Georgia which has 37,500 cases and 1600 deaths and compare it to Ontario which has 22,600 cases and 1800 deaths and then say, 'see, Georgia has more cases but less deaths, so they are doing better than Ontario.' At the same time you conveniently ignore they have 10 million population vs. Ontario's 14.5 million population so in fact Ontario has less cases and less deaths per capita.

Cherry picking data is easy for anyone to do MrMatt. I don't know why that would surprise you when a poster here does it to try and support their contentions.


----------



## Eder

OK I will clarify....

Most states in the USA have lower death rates than Quebec or Ontario...I won't go thru all the data to elaborate.but Quebec has a worse death record than all USA states other than 8.

So ya...we are being pretty smug and condescending to the USA but we suck pretty bad at our Corona response as well.


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> OK I will clarify....
> 
> Most states in the USA have lower death rates than Quebec or Ontario...I won't go thru all the data to elaborate.but Quebec has a worse death record than all USA states other than 8.
> 
> So ya...we are being pretty smug and condescending to the USA but we suck pretty bad at our Corona response as well.


"Okay I'll clarify" by making a different claim.

"I'll make this claim, but I won't support it."


Ontario, the second worst province, is mid pack across US states.
Quebec, the worst performing province barely makes it into the top 10 of US states.

Our overall per capita death numbers are half the US numbers.
Even the only Quebec and Ontario per capita numbers are better than the US numbers.

We're not perfect, but we're doing pretty good.

I don't think our Coronavirus response was great, but to say it sucks is unfair.

Yes Trudeau should have shut the border sooner, and enforced a mandatory quarantine. But I appreciate that would have been politically unpopular at the time.


----------



## Longtimeago

If we had closed our border just with the USA sooner, not even all international travel, we would be lower in every way. A whole lot of our cases came via the USA. March breakers alone returning from the USA are probably responsible for a significant percentage of all our cases. 

We have nothing to look at in the USA and envy and plenty to look at and wish we had reacted to differently.


----------



## sags

It was returning Canadians that brought the virus into Canada. Trudeau couldn't refuse to let them return.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> It was returning Canadians that brought the virus into Canada. Trudeau couldn't refuse to let them return.


No we couldn't refuse to allow them to return sags but if you look at each step that was taken and when it was taken we could have done things DIFFERENTLY.

What we did was in fact REACT each step of the way when we could have been more PROACTIVE instead. We waited till the first cases were brought in from China and then we stopped travel to China. We waited till more cases came in from other countries and then stopped international travel except to the USA. We waited till all the people who had booked and paid for March Break vacations left on those vacations and then we stopped travel to the USA and imposed a mandatory quarantine on all returning travellers. 

IF we had stopped all international travel after even the first case was brought back from China, what difference would that have made? IF we had imposed a mandatory quarantine for all returning Canadians after the first case came in what difference would that have made? 

All of these decisions could have been made sooner than they were, the question is why weren't they and the answer is MONEY and the unwillingness to face the outrage that would have came from the public in their ignorance. They had to 'spoon feed' each step to the public, one step at a time. I understand that but I think we could have taken each step at least 2 weeks earlier and that would have made a big difference in the outcome. The same is the case with how we shut down internally each step of the way, too slow.

How to combat a virus is simple and well known. Stop travel and isolate. It has worked since medieval times. The problem is what it will do to the economy and the unwillingness of the public to accept what has to be done.

Returning Canadians are not responsible for the outcome we have had so far, our prioritizing factors other than how to stop it are responsible.


----------



## cainvest

So no new cases today and only one new case in Manitoba over the long weekend.

So the one new case in all of Manitoba just happens to be an employee at one of the Walmarts I shop at ... what are the chances.  It'll be interesting to see if any community spread numbers occur from this and they didn't release any tracing info about where that employee might have gotten it.


----------



## Money172375

427 new confirmed cases of COVID19 announced in Ontario today. After a steady three-week decrease leading up to May 12, the five-day average number of cases has actually been rising for the past week.

Today was the official start of stage 1 restriction easing. Some theorizing the rise in cases is due to Mothers Day. Hoping the long weekend hasn’t made things worse.


----------



## Money172375

Others in Ontario are ridiculing the fact that housekeepers are now allowed in your home, but not your family.


----------



## andrewf

Eder said:


> Most of the USA is doing better than Quebec or Ontario,


Ontario is doing much better than Quebec. I would say most places to which Canadians would travel in the US are not doing particularly well. Nebraska and North Dakota are kind of irrelevant.


----------



## Eder

How bout Hawaii...no one goes there
At any rate it is not about that...NY,NJ,ONT and Quebec all screwed the pooch. Better to blame all 4 on America.


----------



## andrewf

Eder said:


> How bout Hawaii...no one goes there
> At any rate it is not about that...NY,NJ,ONT and Quebec all screwed the pooch. Better to blame all 4 on America.


Ontario has had 1680 cases / 138 deaths per million. The USA as a whole has averaged 4750 / 283. Ontario is outperforming the vast majority of the states including backwaters like South Dakota, Missouri, etc. Hawaii has done well, but it is also an island.

Far be it from me to defend Doug.


----------



## Prairie Guy

andrewf said:


> Ontario has had 1680 cases / 138 deaths per million. The USA as a whole has averaged 4750 / 283. Ontario is outperforming the vast majority of the states including backwaters like South Dakota, Missouri, etc. Hawaii has done well, but it is also an island.
> 
> Far be it from me to defend Doug.


And yet New York...not a "backwater" state in your fantasy world (we assume), deliberately sent Covid positive seniors back into care centers to infect entire buildings which killed thousands upon thousands.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Others in Ontario are ridiculing the fact that housekeepers are now allowed in your home, but not your family.


Lots to criticize in the details.
But to slowly get the economy going, instead of just going full open makes sense.

Secondly a housekeeper is going to have less personal contact than a family visitor.


----------



## Longtimeago

Ontario will not open schools till September according to Ford. No date for when Daycares will be allowed to reopen.

At the same time, people are being called back to work. Now you have parents complaining, 'how can I go back to work when there is no where to dump my kids for the day?'

Kinda makes you wonder why some people chose to have kids. When we moved from having a parent at home and a parent out working, to both parents out working, was it really progress?

Meanwhile as Ontario keeps schools closed and parents complain about them being closed, in BC, some parents are complaining about the exact opposite.








Coronavirus: B.C. parents sign petition to keep schools closed til September | Globalnews.ca


A Vancouver mom says she believes it's too early to go back and that young children are unable to maintain proper hygiene without help.




globalnews.ca





Re the housekeeper but not family visitor issue MrMatt, that's an easy one. Have your family visitor do the housekeeping. LOL


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Ontario will not open schools till September according to Ford. No date for when Daycares will be allowed to reopen.
> 
> At the same time, people are being called back to work. Now you have parents complaining, 'how can I go back to work when there is no where to dump my kids for the day?'
> 
> Kinda makes you wonder why some people chose to have kids. When we moved from having a parent at home and a parent out working, to both parents out working, was it really progress?


I think it was a step backwards, but the government is purposely attacking single income families with a stay at home parent.
It is financially beneficial to have 2 parents working at $40k than 1 parent earning $70k, and the other staying home.

Liberals and NDP want families to be dependant on government programs, so that they keep voting for bigger and more expensive government programs. It's a self sustaining cycle of growth.


----------



## cainvest

Looks like Manitoba is entering phase 2 this Friday. Increased group sizes for both indoor and outdoor were mentioned with more details to follow later this week. So far the numbers here have remained very good since phase 1 started weeks ago.


----------



## andrewf

Prairie Guy said:


> And yet New York...not a "backwater" state in your fantasy world (we assume), deliberately sent Covid positive seniors back into care centers to infect entire buildings which killed thousands upon thousands.


Not sure what you're on about. I said NY, along with most other states, have a worse record than Ontario. Go grind your ax against NYC elsewhere.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I think it was a step backwards, but the government is purposely attacking single income families with a stay at home parent.
> It is financially beneficial to have 2 parents working at $40k than 1 parent earning $70k, and the other staying home.
> 
> Liberals and NDP want families to be dependant on government programs, so that they keep voting for bigger and more expensive government programs. It's a self sustaining cycle of growth.


Do you think people work for $40k when they can earn $70k? Usually those couples where 1 person can earn $70k are in a higher socioeconomic class than those where both can earn $40k. It is a form of consumption to have a stay at home spouse due to home production. I know conservatives want their wives barefoot in the kitchen--don't moan about how the tax system should be biased against min wage earners to support their middle-income lifestyle with a stay-at-home spouse,


----------



## Prairie Guy

andrewf said:


> I know conservatives want their wives barefoot in the kitchen


And everyone knows that Liberals want their wives working while they laze around and contribute nothing.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Do you think people work for $40k when they can earn $70k? Usually those couples where 1 person can earn $70k are in a higher socioeconomic class than those where both can earn $40k. It is a form of consumption to have a stay at home spouse due to home production. I know conservatives want their wives barefoot in the kitchen--don't moan about how the tax system should be biased against min wage earners to support their middle-income lifestyle with a stay-at-home spouse,


In some cases yes.
I know a few families where they stuck to jobs and areas where they were both making a modest salary, rather than relocating/changing to a different job where it would be a substantially higher salary for one of them.

Also some of the higher salary positions typically were more demanding, and that spouse would be less available for child care. This is quite common in shiftwork, like for nurses or autoworkers. The spouse has to take a more flexible job to accomodate it (which pays correspondingly less)

I'm not sure what your last statement is even trying to say

I just think that if government support benefits and programs are based on family income, then taxes should be paid based on family income. It is not fair that households with the same income will pay different amounts of taxes, and get different levels of government support.


----------



## andrewf

In a couple where two spouses earn $40k each, but one is capable of earning $70k if they chose (I struggle to imagine how often this is the case), that family is better off than the one where each only earns $40k and is not capable of earning more. Presumably the one spouse is earning less because they find the lower paying job more fulfilling or less demanding/dangerous/etc. 

The whole argument about subsidizing stay-at-home spouses is really just an attempt to disincentivize the second spouse from working outside the home. I thought conservatives were terribly concerned about preserving work incentives.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> In a couple where two spouses earn $40k each, but one is capable of earning $70k if they chose (I struggle to imagine how often this is the case), that family is better off than the one where each only earns $40k and is not capable of earning more. Presumably the one spouse is earning less because they find the lower paying job more fulfilling or less demanding/dangerous/etc.
> 
> The whole argument about subsidizing stay-at-home spouses is really just an attempt to disincentivize the second spouse from working outside the home. I thought conservatives were terribly concerned about preserving work incentives.


Nobody is talking about subsidizing stay at home spouses. 
It's just about treating families fairly.

It is not fair to have one family pay more taxes than another family when they have the same income.


----------



## Longtimeago

So once again the number of tests done in Ontario dropped to 5,000 or so thanks to labs being closed for the long weekend. Really???? Did Covid-19 take a long weekend off too? This is just ridiculous.

Ontario is basically sitting on a plateau as far as reported cases goes. That means we are sitting at the PEAK, not even on the down side at all. What is it that people don't understand about this?


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Nobody is talking about subsidizing stay at home spouses.
> It's just about treating families fairly.
> 
> It is not fair to have one family pay more taxes than another family when they have the same income.


LOL, that's a pretty naive view of how we pay income tax MrMatt. I may earn as much or more than you and still pay less income tax depending on deductions, allowances, etc. Do they use RRSPs, TFSA accounts, etc.

The tax rules are the same for everyone, but how any individuals take advantage of the rules or not is up to them.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> So once again the number of tests done in Ontario dropped to 5,000 or so thanks to labs being closed for the long weekend. Really???? Did Covid-19 take a long weekend off too? This is just ridiculous.
> 
> Ontario is basically sitting on a plateau as far as reported cases goes. That means we are sitting at the PEAK, not even on the down side at all. What is it that people don't understand about this?


Active cases in Ontario have been falling for weeks.
Of course most media reports "total cases", which includes recovered cases, and can't go down.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Active cases in Ontario have been falling for weeks.
> Of course most media reports "total cases", which includes recovered cases, and can't go down.


I'm not bothered by active cases vs. total cases MrMatt. What I am looking at is NEW reported cases and that is not falling at all. It if isn't then what does it tell us? 

The real question is where is Ontario's R number and that is not easy to find. It isn't reported to us on a daily basis like case numbers etc. But if the number of daily reported new cases is not falling then it doesn't look like the R number is below 1. 









What the coronavirus reproduction number is, and why we should keep an eye on it - National | Globalnews.ca


How well are we containing coronavirus? Experts say to look at the "R number," or reproduction number. Here's what it is and why it matters.




globalnews.ca





So if 100 cases are reported today, the question is how many others did they infect? If 100 new cases are reported tomorrow then that looks like 1:1. If it happens the day after tomorrow and the day after that etc. it remains 1:1. When we see 100 new cases and then only 50 on a later day, then it is dropping. I don't see Ontario dropping yet do you?


----------



## MrMatt

Cases have been falling in Ontario for weeks. Though it seems in the last week there has been an uptick.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/chart-ontario-covid-19-cases-over-time-1.5545112

This is to be expected as people start relaxing their distancing efforts.


what data shows no delcine?


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Nobody is talking about subsidizing stay at home spouses.
> It's just about treating families fairly.
> 
> It is not fair to have one family pay more taxes than another family when they have the same income.


As long as you put a value on the services that the stay at home spouse produces (could be upwards of $40k of child care, etc.).

I mean, why should a single person earning $80k pay the same tax as a family with one income at $80k, a stay at home spouse and a raft of kids. The family is making the decision to forego the market income spouse 2 could produce and instead consume the benefits of that spouse staying home on child care, work around the house, substituting for purchased products (home production of food, furniture, clothes, whatever). That is all obtained tax free.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Cases have been falling in Ontario for weeks. Though it seems in the last week there has been an uptick.
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/chart-ontario-covid-19-cases-over-time-1.5545112
> 
> This is to be expected as people start relaxing their distancing efforts.
> 
> 
> what data shows no delcine?


Umm, well the data you linked shows it increasing for the last week as YOU have said. It is climbing again. Maybe your idea of a 'decline' is different from mine. Mine is when the number of new cases CONTINUES to decline for 14 consecutive days or more. We were on that path till May 12th and now we are not. Ontario is back up to over 400 new cases for the last couple of days from a low of 328 on May 12th. 

So no MrMatt, cases are not 'falling' as you state, they are RISING. You can't just say, 'though there has been an uptick' as you do, when the 'uptick' has been constant for 10 days. An 'uptick' in my definition would be if on ONE day, there was a rise but it was back down again the next day and continued to go down, not UP.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> Umm, well the data you linked shows it increasing for the last week as YOU have said. It is climbing again. Maybe your idea of a 'decline' is different from mine. Mine is when the number of new cases CONTINUES to decline for 14 consecutive days or more. We were on that path till May 12th and now we are not. Ontario is back up to over 400 new cases for the last couple of days from a low of 328 on May 12th.
> 
> So no MrMatt, cases are not 'falling' as you state, they are RISING. You can't just say, 'though there has been an uptick' as you do, when the 'uptick' has been constant for 10 days. An 'uptick' in my definition would be if on ONE day, there was a rise but it was back down again the next day and continued to go down, not UP.


They changed the testing methodology and are detecting more cases.

The number of cases today is much lower than 3 weeks ago, even though they're testing people who would not have been tested under the old process.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> They changed the testing methodology and are detecting more cases.
> 
> The number of cases today is much lower than 3 weeks ago, even though they're testing people who would not have been tested under the old process.


I think there is some wishful thinking on your part going on MrMatt. There have been less tests done in the last five days, so the number of tests or the methodology used cannot account for the now 11 days of increasing numbers of cases. 

I have little doubt that Mother's Day played a part and that this past long weekend will also play a part as will warming weather going forward and the easing of restrictions. Fully 1/3 of all new cases are known community spread and another 31% are 'pending' meaning the source is not known yet but could also be community spread. I wish they would give us better breakdowns of the new cases numbers in regards to LTC homes, other congregate areas like the meatplants in Alberta or the greenhouses in SW Ontario, etc. and then the community spread numbers. The more detailed the breakdown, the better we can see where we are falling short in stopping the spread.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-may-22-update-1.5580107



Fully 2/3rds of all cases are in the GTA area. I'd like to know how many of the new cases are there vs. elsewhere. For example, an increase in more rural cases would indicate that those outside the GTA are becoming less likely to adhere to distancing. 

I'd also like to know how many new cases are in each age group. From the link: _Some 30.4 per cent of total confirmed cases in the province have been in people aged 40-59. The 20-39 demographic makes up 24.8 per cent of all cases. People aged 60-79 and over 80 account for 20.9 per cent and 20.8 per cent, respectively. _

But is the 77% of deaths being from LTC homes decreasing or not? It is reasonable to expect the greatest percentage of deaths to be in that age group but should it continue to come solely from LTC homes?

I find the daily press briefings we are getting now at all levels of government are all about money aid, re-opening changes and say little if anything anymore about what is changing in terms of how we are doing with containing the virus. Where are we doing well, where are we falling short, are people slacking off distancing, etc. 

For example, when Ontario's Chief Medical Officer, David Williams was asked point blank whether Mother's Day may have played a role in the rising number of new cases, his response was pathetic. He said people _'may have been a bit more casual over the last few weekends than he would have liked.' _In other words, YES was the answer but he didn't come right out and say something like, 'those who ignored distancing whether to visit Mother or for any other reason have no doubt selfishly added to the increase in new cases, the added burden on healthcare workers and the added risk to everyone else.'

Ford wasn't much better calling the 10 day rise in new cases ''concerning'. What he did not say is something like, 'we need to identify WHY the number is rising and if it points to a shortcoming of some kind in how we are dealing with the possibility of spread, we will ACT on that. If we identify that people are starting to act irresponsibly, we will ramp up fines for those doing so.' He needs to make it clear that there will be real penalties imposed. Instead what he keeps repeating when asked any questions about irresponsible behaviour is, 'I have faith in the people of Ontario', over and over. In other words, he hopes people will act responsibly but isn't willing to say he will punish them if they don't since that might cost him some votes in the next election.


----------



## Money172375

Not liking this chart for Ontario....few more days of this and they’ll be talking lockdown again.


----------



## Money172375

Toronto Park today


----------



## MrMatt

Yeah, the Ontario numbers really are looking bad.
London numbers aren't too bad.

I think people have given up on distancing, the nice weather is here, and they're talking about opening.

I think the strong initial COVID response is almost a victim of it's own success.

As well the massive delays in necessary medical services, and lockdown related harm is really starting to build some discontent.

I hope they take this and build better policies going forward.


----------



## Longtimeago

Yesterday's new cases for Ontario was again over 400. There is no question we are trending upwards again. The people congregating in the Toronto park are just selfish idiots. Notice in the pictures the obvious age group. 

How do you get a 20 something year old to understand they are being assholes.


----------



## sags

I can almost hear the Mamas and Papas singing in that picture.........LOL.

We have a park about the same size on the other side of our back fence. There is never anyone in it.

It must be a Toronto thing. Maybe they all live in highrise buildings and just gotta get out for a bit.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Ignorance, Personal Irresponsibility, Me-Me-Me genre and a mayor who talks on 2 sides of his mouth. When is he and his 44 odd lackies taking a pay-cut for hiding in the basement, supposingly WAH?


----------



## sags

It was pointed out in the media that Andrew Scheer resigned but still collects opposition leader wages and lives free in the official residence.

Maybe he should stop insinuating that people collecting the CERB are lazy and cheaters who don't want to work ?

All the political parties, including the Liberals have applied for the worker subsidy, so they qualify while some businesses don't.

We need to return to normal as soon as we can, but we can't "will" the virus away. We have to continue to deal with it until it is gone.


----------



## jargey3000

"How do you get a 20 something year old to understand they are being assholes.."

weren't you ever 20-something LTA? .........you can't!


----------



## Longtimeago

jargey3000 said:


> "How do you get a 20 something year old to understand they are being assholes.."
> 
> weren't you ever 20-something LTA? .........you can't!


Unless they start really cracking down on people not following the restrictions, I think we are going to go into a second wave in the next month or so. In regards to the park in Toronto, the Mayor's response was that the police and by-law enforcement officers are 'going to remind people of the rules today (Sunday)'.

Remind them of the rules??????? Ticket their asses for crying out loud. If they had issued 1000 tickets in that park on Saturday what do you think you would find there today? Duhhhh.

The solution is simple but they just won't enforce it. Why Not? I can teach a 20 something year old what it COSTS to be an ******* really easily jargey3000. I know that when I was a 20 something year old, what it would have taken to teach me, I DO remember being young and dumb, but I also remember not being dumb enough to do something twice if I got an $800 fine for doing it the first time. Not many are that young and dumb.


----------



## cainvest

Money172375 said:


> Not liking this chart for Ontario....few more days of this and they’ll be talking lockdown again.


The chart for Canadian provinces shows pretty much all but Ontario and Quebec flattening their curves.
Canada Total Cases

They really need to lock down bad areas and hand out fines to get it under control.


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> Unless they start really cracking down on people not following the restrictions, I think we are going to go into a second wave in the next month or so. In regards to the park in Toronto, the Mayor's response was that the police and by-law enforcement officers are 'going to remind people of the rules today (Sunday)'.
> 
> Remind them of the rules??????? Ticket their asses for crying out loud. If they had issued 1000 tickets in that park on Saturday what do you think you would find there today? Duhhhh.
> 
> The solution is simple but they just won't enforce it. Why Not? I can teach a 20 something year old what it COSTS to be an ***** really easily jargey3000. I know that when I was a 20 something year old, what it would have taken to teach me, I DO remember being young and dumb, but I also remember not being dumb enough to do something twice if I got an $800 fine for doing it the first time. Not many are that young and dumb.


2nd wave? The first one isn't even over. We’ve flattened the curve in Ontario, but it really hasn’t dropped much.

I keep hearing this is a 1.5-2 year problem.........if we can’t handle 10 weeks, what will it look like after 10 months?


----------



## Eder

I'm sure being outside is much safer than a restaurant etc. People are scared of everything now I guess.


----------



## andrewf

Not obvious that being in a park is that dangerous. There are very few documented cases of COVID spread happening outdoors. If you want people to tolerate 12 months of restrictions, I think we need evidence based policies about distancing outdoors.


----------



## Prairie Guy

andrewf said:


> Not obvious that being in a park is that dangerous. There are very few documented cases of COVID spread happening outdoors. If you want people to tolerate 12 months of restrictions, I think we need evidence based policies about distancing outdoors.


I agree. So far it seems that virtually no one has caught it from being outdoors. The worst performing areas are the most locked down.


----------



## junior minor

Toronto officials say crowds eased at park flooded by thousands on Saturday


TORONTO — A downtown Toronto park flooded by a crowd of thousands on Saturday had largely emptied on Sunday as police and bylaw officers turned up in full force. Officials condemned the gathering at Trinity Bellwoods Park on Saturday and reminded residents that people who aren’t from the same...




www.todayville.com





Well they're trying to enforce the social distancing but they're also enjoying the ticket give-away.

The taxi companies are none too thrilled, it seems. I wouldn't be either if my bread-winning activity was endangered by some twits that thought it'd be cool to develop herd immunity in the city's park.

Photos of the park drew much ire on social media, with Beck Taxi tweeting: _"Please don't contact us for a ride home if you've spent the day at Trinity Bellwoods Park ignoring physical distancing rules." _


https://twitter.com/BeckTaxi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1264334960242102272



_taken from that cbc article_


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/bylaw-officers-downtown-party-trinity-bellwoods-1.5582399


----------



## sags

I believe there were some outbreaks due to public outings at New Orlean's Mardis Gras and Brazil's Carnival. Both places are not doing well.


----------



## s1231

MrMatt said:


> They changed the testing methodology and are detecting more cases.
> 
> The number of cases today is much lower than 3 weeks ago, even though they're testing people who would not have been tested under the old process.


some issue on sars cov 2 test that I've read in the past.
If the tests are not accurate, then it's no sense to use those results.
I wonder.... current test accuracy in Canada.










Are Coronavirus Tests Accurate? - MedicineNet Health News


Now there are concerns about the accuracy of the laboratory tests used to confirm diagnoses.




www.medicinenet.com




...False-negative test results, where patients are told they do not have a condition when they actually do, cause several problems.
Patients may be turned away from hospitals and medical facilities when they require care. They may infect others at home, work, school, or in the community. Patients' conditions may also worsen without treatment.

....They recommend isolation and repeat swab tests for those who have symptoms of the illness and characteristic chest CT findings despite negative RT-PCR tests.

.....Professor Pau Hunter of the University of East Anglia told Science Media Centre that previously suspected cases of the illness are now considered confirmed cases even though some may be caused by illnesses other than COVID-19. Translation: Clinical diagnosis may lead to over diagnosis and misdiagnosis in some cases.










COVID-19 tests likely only accurate 70 per cent of the time, health experts warn


'Most of these tests are going through a really rapid validation process. As a result, we can’t be completely confident in how they will perform'




nationalpost.com


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> 2nd wave? The first one isn't even over. We’ve flattened the curve in Ontario, but it really hasn’t dropped much.
> 
> I keep hearing this is a 1.5-2 year problem.........if we can’t handle 10 weeks, what will it look like after 10 months?


The measures will stay in place, but social distancing will drop.
The lockdown is really getting to people, and the government doesn't have any idea how to transition to normal.

If people are hanging out in parks, taking taxis and public transit, why can't I go to my dentist, or physiotherapist?

People are being denied health care. This is really starting to turn into a mess.


----------



## sags

It is mostly older people who die from COVID and they could have self isolated and let others carry on, get infected, and develop herd immunity.

The problem was that it wasn't just old people who got very sick. Many younger people were sick enough to require hospitalization.

So if the doors were thrown open, the healthcare system would have been overrun. If you look at the lineups at the ERs in NYC they weren't all old people.

It isn't clear that businesses could have continued to run if workers were getting very sick. Companies don't have an army of trained replacements.

We need a vaccine, treatment or find out why kids and some people have little or no side effects from the virus.

What is different about them, may be the key to it all. Regardless, it is going to take time and we just have to accept it.

More government support will be required. Extra precautions need to be followed. The virus isn't voluntarily going away.

It looks like vaccines will be tried without full clinical testing. As very few vaccines pass all the normal clinical testing steps.......that is dangerous.

Big decisions will have to be made. I am glad I don't have to make them.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Not obvious that being in a park is that dangerous. There are very few documented cases of COVID spread happening outdoors. If you want people to tolerate 12 months of restrictions, I think we need evidence based policies about distancing outdoors.


Where is your evidence to support that andrewf? Common sense should tell you that any gathering of people will increase the risk of spread. Then consider, how do you do contact tracing when someone from that park turns up positive? 

Consider what really happened. Estimates of as high as 10,000 people were in that park on Saturday. Do you think that all of them INDIVIDUALLY decided to go to that park that day? I think it is far more likely that what happened was a form of 'flash mob'. Google it if you don't know what that is. There is no way that it 'just happened', not with those kinds of numbers. Some organization took place on social media. To me that means people INTENTIONALLY decided to flaunt the law. Who goes for a walk in the park and takes alcohol along with them? They intended to have a 'party' and that's what they did. 

There are some telling points in this article: There will be 'lessons learned' from situation at Trinity Bellwoods Park, Toronto mayor says

The Police and By-law Enforcement Officers are reluctant to write tickets. I understand there were only FOUR tickets written. We keep hearing, 'we prefer to try and educate rather than ticket'. I say BS, the truth I believe is that they are AFRAID to have to get into close physical contact with people which increases their own risk and I can't say I really blame them for that. So what we have is in effect a law that is not enforceable in practical terms and that is what we are seeing. From the article linked above, "_ it becomes a very difficult task for them to enforce the law in a safe manner.” _ That means safe for the Police in terms of increased risk to them of getting the virus when trying to enforce the law.

How do you 'educate' or reason with an individual who has no respect for the law? There are no public toilets available in parks right now. Do you know what some of those at this park on Saturday did, they went into the yards of houses that adjoin the park and urinated and defecated there. Police Chief Mark Saunders stated, _"A lot of complaints were coming in from the residents, people urinating, people defecating on their properties," he said. "When you've got an elderly woman opening the door and seeing someone defecating, it is quite bothersome." _THESE are the kind of people involved and we should 'educate and reason' with them?

Apparently, there was a considerable amount of alcohol present as well. It is illegal to drink alchohol in a Toronto Park. So all kinds of laws were being broken and yet tickets were not being written. Back to it being too difficult for the Police to enforce the law 'in a safe manner'. 

I now think that given the likelyhood of this happening again on weekends, the city needs to have a 'Rapid Response Team' in place ready to disperse them in a very short time span. The question is how to do this? I accept that they can't try to ticket them all, not safely. So what CAN they do? Here's my idea.

When you are dealing with children or supposed adults who are acting like children, how do you punish them? Well one way is to take away their FUN.


----------



## Longtimeago

So how to take away their FUN.

Toronto has 83 Fire Stations and almost all of them have Pumper trucks. They hook up to a fire hydrant and then pump the water through hoses onto a fire. There are even Marine units that can pump water onto waterfront properties.

So when a situation arises as did on Saturday, give the Police a 'Mob Response' number to call and have several pumper trucks from the Fire Department show up and start 'RAINING ON THEIR PARADE'. Literally, start pumping larg amounts of water not AT the mob but into the air OVER the mob. Make it pour rain and how long will they continue to be having FUN?

There is then no need for any Police or Fire Department personnel to put themselves at risk.


----------



## Prairie Guy

LTA would make a great little dictator. Turn the hoses or guns on anyone who refuses to comply with his demands. The fact that the risk of contracting the virus is less outside than inside is irrelevant, the facts don't matter. Flatten the curve has morphed into "you can't go outside until we say so".

Give up your freedom and comply. Or else.


----------



## sags

In a crowd of people, I doubt being inside or outside makes much difference.


----------



## Plugging Along

LTA has a good point in this case (I don't write that often). The people in the park were clearly breaking the law in so many ways. Though its more difficult to contract the virus outside, the recommendations are people my still distance. That clearly wasn't happening. Sure go outside to meet up, but don't be an idiot like they were. I have had meet ups outside but am responsible about it. 

If everyone was distancing properly, then no problem, but here raining on their parade is a great idea. People were crapping on property owners houses. How is that ok? The people doing this stuff were just irresponsible and disrespectful. People complain about their lost of freedom. If you're actions are harming others, then you do need to have your freedoms limited.


----------



## Prairie Guy

If Trudeau is allowed to break the guidelines for unnecessary travel to his vacation home in another province, then I'm allowed to gather in public as I wish (although I haven't yet). But I'll change my mind if someone can convince me that Trudeau has rights that I don't have.


----------



## sags

Everyone should carry one of these to deal with "close walkers" and "close talkers". They are on sale too.



https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mini-Megaphone/8033791



_"Stay back close walker"._


----------



## Longtimeago

Prairie Guy said:


> If Trudeau is allowed to break the guidelines for unnecessary travel to his vacation home in another province, then I'm allowed to gather in public as I wish (although I haven't yet). But I'll change my mind if someone can convince me that Trudeau has rights that I don't have.


I really do think you should move to the USA Prairie Guy. You would fit in much better there than here in Canada. We have laws in Canada and YOU are expected to respect those laws. If you do not want to do so, then LEAVE.


----------



## Longtimeago

Plugging Along said:


> LTA has a good point in this case (I don't write that often). The people in the park were clearly breaking the law in so many ways. Though its more difficult to contract the virus outside, the recommendations are people my still distance. That clearly wasn't happening. Sure go outside to meet up, but don't be an idiot like they were. I have had meet ups outside but am responsible about it.
> 
> If everyone was distancing properly, then no problem, but here raining on their parade is a great idea. People were crapping on property owners houses. How is that ok? The people doing this stuff were just irresponsible and disrespectful. People complain about their lost of freedom. If you're actions are harming others, then you do need to have your freedoms limited.


Glad to hear you like my idea of raining on their parade Plugging Along. I do not see it as a 'heavy handed' response to people who are deliberately ignoring our laws. Nor does it punish those using parks responsibly as going back to closing down parks would do. It wouldn't physically harm the mob but I think it would sure take their FUN away very quickly.

Even if they got smart assed and all showed up with unbrellas next time, I think they would get tired of sitting in mud under an umbrella pretty quickly as well. Sitting in rain is just no fun, no matter what you do.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> I really do think you should move to the USA Prairie Guy. You would fit in much better there than here in Canada. We have laws in Canada and YOU are expected to respect those laws. If you do not want to do so, then LEAVE.


Not really, Trudeau broke health recommendations of 2 provinces to go to his cottage.
That's the point, the political elites think the rules don't apply to them.

I don't like Trudeau, but if he actually followed the law, and basic ethics I'd have far fewer issues with him.

It's one thing to issues laws, and rules and orders. But this whole "one rule for thee, and one rule for me", isn't fair, and most Canadians think it's unacceptable.

Of course in Trudeaus mind, him going to the cottage for the weekend, in violation of the heath order is very different from YOU violating the health order.


----------



## Eder

It was just a few weekends ago that BC health minister was freaking out about all the outdoor activity taking place ...turned out to cause nothing and new cases in BC are rare in spite of all the idiot Karens commenting. Outdoor activity needs to be encouraged not suppressed.


----------



## sags

Trudeau was going to the "official" country residence at Harrington Lake.

It is the only "official" residence available to him as 24 Sussex in Ottawa is being renovated.

Andrew Scheer flew his wife and kids across Canada to stay at the "official" Opposition leader's residence, even though he has already resigned.

Scheer also continues to collect Official Opposition leader pay and benefits, even though he has already resigned.

Scheer is milking it to the very end, and all the while calling people collecting CERB lazy people who don't want to work.

Scheer has been eating at the trough since he was a piglet.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> It was just a few weekends ago that BC health minister was freaking out about all the outdoor activity taking place ...turned out to cause nothing and new cases in BC are rare in spite of all the idiot Karens commenting. Outdoor activity needs to be encouraged not suppressed.


Who is saying to suppress outdoor activity? Why don't you comment on the issue of breaking the law? Is that to be encouraged?

Drinking alchohol in a public park is to be encouraged?
Not obeying social distancing laws and congregating in large groups against the law, are they to be encouraged?
Urinating and defecating in people's backyards, is that to be encouraged?


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Not really, Trudeau broke health recommendations of 2 provinces to go to his cottage.
> That's the point, the political elites think the rules don't apply to them.
> 
> I don't like Trudeau, but if he actually followed the law, and basic ethics I'd have far fewer issues with him.
> 
> It's one thing to issues laws, and rules and orders. But this whole "one rule for thee, and one rule for me", isn't fair, and most Canadians think it's unacceptable.
> 
> Of course in Trudeaus mind, him going to the cottage for the weekend, in violation of the heath order is very different from YOU violating the health order.


I agree that it is bad 'optics' MrMatt but what is the difference between him going from his 'office' to his 'home' on the weekend like any other 'essential worker' is allowed to do? That he has to cross a provincial border to do so is also no different than any other essential worker who goes from an office to a home.

Don't forget, his family is not living in the building where he works every day, they are living in another location and that is where he was going, home to his family. Would you deny him that?

It's only the optics of it that give those that want to, a chance to make an issue out of it.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Not really, Trudeau broke health recommendations of 2 provinces to go to his cottage.
> That's the point, the political elites think the rules don't apply to them.
> 
> I don't like Trudeau, but if he actually followed the law, and basic ethics I'd have far fewer issues with him.
> 
> It's one thing to issues laws, and rules and orders. But this whole "one rule for thee, and one rule for me", isn't fair, and most Canadians think it's unacceptable.
> 
> Of course in Trudeaus mind, him going to the cottage for the weekend, in violation of the heath order is very different from YOU violating the health order.


I think it is a little unrealistic to hold the head of government to the same public health guidelines as everyone else. Pretty much every head of government around the world would be violating their own social distancing guidelines (Trump, for instance?). Trudeau was going to one of the official residences for the PM. I think this is more of a bloody-minded desire to find fault.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> I agree that it is bad 'optics' MrMatt but what is the difference between him going from his 'office' to his 'home' on the weekend like any other 'essential worker' is allowed to do? That he has to cross a provincial border to do so is also no different than any other essential worker who goes from an office to a home.
> 
> Don't forget, his family is not living in the building where he works every day, they are living in another location and that is where he was going, home to his family. Would you deny him that?
> 
> It's only the optics of it that give those that want to, a chance to make an issue out of it.


His Home is Rideau Cottage, His office is the PMO which is near parliment (due to the construction I'm not sure which block )

Harrington Lake is the cottage, in another province.

I wouldn't deny him that, I even said he should have simply "relocated" for a week or two, just so it wasn't a weekend trip. 

And yes, Optics matters.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I think it is a little unrealistic to hold the head of government to the same public health guidelines as everyone else. Pretty much every head of government around the world would be violating their own social distancing guidelines (Trump, for instance?). Trudeau was going to one of the official residences for the PM. I think this is more of a bloody-minded desire to find fault.


I think it was bad for both Trudeau and Ford to violate health guidelines.
I don't think it's unrealistic to tell Trudeau to try and set a good example.


----------



## cainvest

Looks like MB is getting ready for phase 2 reopening! 
My guess is it'll be on June 1st as long as the new case numbers stay low. We're currently on 4 days of zero new cases and also no cases in the hospital.

The phase 2 plan opens many things up, restaurants, bars, pools, community centers, to name a few that will be under limited (~ 50%) capacity rules and 2m spacing. I think this will be a make or break step forward for Manitoba. The new normal is getting closer to the old normal already.


----------



## Mukhang pera

cainvest said:


> Looks like MB is getting ready for phase 2 reopening!
> My guess is it'll be on June 1st as long as the new case numbers stay low. We're currently on 4 days of zero new cases and also no cases in the hospital.
> 
> The phase 2 plan opens many things up, restaurants, bars, pools, community centers, to name a few that will be under limited (~ 50%) capacity rules and 2m spacing. I think this will be a make or break step forward for Manitoba. The new normal is getting closer to the old normal already.


Yeah, well just wait until all those scummy, disease-ridden vermin from Ontario and Quebec start pouring across your border for summer vacations! When they talk of a "second wave", that can also refer to a wave of migrants seeking refugee status in previously covid-arid Manitoba. 

Manitoba should never have boasted its low numbers. It should have sheltered behind a wall of "fake news". Pump up the numbers. Blame any and every malady on C-19. Post overhead signs at all entry points "Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here". It should adopt a "Manitobans First" policy. No proof of residence? Get out. Manitoba über alles.


----------



## Plugging Along

cainvest said:


> Looks like MB is getting ready for phase 2 reopening!
> My guess is it'll be on June 1st as long as the new case numbers stay low. We're currently on 4 days of zero new cases and also no cases in the hospital.
> 
> The phase 2 plan opens many things up, restaurants, bars, pools, community centers, to name a few that will be under limited (~ 50%) capacity rules and 2m spacing. I think this will be a make or break step forward for Manitoba. The new normal is getting closer to the old normal already.


Glad to hear. I hope it goes well, and that the rest of the country can learn slowly how other places are doing it. 



Mukhang pera said:


> Yeah, well just wait until all those scummy, disease-ridden vermin from Ontario and Quebec start pouring across your border for summer vacations! When they talk of a "second wave", that can also refer to a wave of migrants seeking refugee status in previously covid-arid Manitoba.
> 
> Manitoba should never have boasted its low numbers. It should have sheltered behind a wall of "fake news". Pump up the numbers. Blame any and every malady on C-19. Post overhead signs at all entry points "Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here". It should adopt a "Manitobans First" policy. No proof of residence? Get out. Manitoba über alles.


LOL… that could be a good tourist attraction. No offense but Manitoba has never been a choice destination for me. I used to have negotiate with my boss to spend less time there.


----------



## cainvest

Plugging Along said:


> Glad to hear. I hope it goes well, and that the rest of the country can learn slowly how other places are doing it.


Hopefully we can be a model on how to do it and it doesn't turn into a disaster.



Plugging Along said:


> No offense but Manitoba has never been a choice destination for me. I used to have negotiate with my boss to spend less time there.


Exactly, nothing to see in Manitoba ... stay home, stay safe. 
Even the virus doesn't seem to like it here and sure it might be covid safe but you'll likely die of boredom!


----------



## Plugging Along

cainvest said:


> Hopefully we can be a model on how to do it and it doesn't turn into a disaster.
> 
> 
> Exactly, nothing to see in Manitoba ... stay home, stay safe.
> Even the virus doesn't seem to like it here and sure it might be covid safe but you'll likely die of boredom!


I think I am updating rather take my chances with COVID rather than the mosquito or the tent caterpillars. Maybe that’s why Manitoba is doing well, everyone stays inside.


----------



## sags

After years of dealing with black flies, horse flies, dragon flies, deer flies, and every kind of pestilence known to man, I am glad we sold our cottage and don't go there anymore and live full time in the big city.

Now when we see a skeeter buzzing around in the back, we point and say......_look......wildlife._


----------



## cainvest

Plugging Along said:


> I think I am updating rather take my chances with COVID rather than the mosquito or the tent caterpillars. Maybe that’s why Manitoba is doing well, everyone stays inside.


That's the odd thing, lots of people going out in the past month. Also, I've never seen so many people in one of our local forests until the pandemic hit. Guess nature is the next option when everything is closed.


----------



## sags

Tell people they can't do something and that is all they want to do.


----------



## Longtimeago

With another 425 new cases reported for Ontario yesterday, the province is now well on the way to a SECOND peak in the FIRST wave. There was never even a period of plateau where the new cases remained relatively the same, it just went from trending down to trending up. 


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/chart-ontario-covid-19-cases-over-time-1.5545112



Clearly, some things are not working well at all. My money is on community spread and people just slacking off with distancing as the weather warms up. 

So this raises the question for me of what is to come? While some joke about who would want to visit Manitoba anyway, we may see there being Covid carnage in Ontario and Quebec while the rest of Canada remains relatively Covid free. That might well start to make Manitoba look like a good place to move to for a while at least. Not all of Manitoba is just empty, endless prairie.


https://www.travelocity.ca/Lake-Winnipeg-Cottages.d6141051-aaCottages.Travel-Guide-Accommodation



Maybe a few months spent Covid free on a lake there would be nice to contemplate. Manitobans might well find they need to brace themselves for an influx unlike any in the history of the province.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> So this raises the question for me of what is to come? While some joke about who would want to visit Manitoba anyway, we may see there being Covid carnage in Ontario and Quebec while the rest of Canada remains relatively Covid free. That might well start to make Manitoba look like a good place to move to for a while at least.


Looking at the graphs, the far east provinces are doing as well or better than MB and you get an ocean view!


----------



## Money172375

Longtimeago said:


> With another 425 new cases reported for Ontario yesterday, the province is now well on the way to a SECOND peak in the FIRST wave. There was never even a period of plateau where the new cases remained relatively the same, it just went from trending down to trending up.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/chart-ontario-covid-19-cases-over-time-1.5545112
> 
> 
> 
> Clearly, some things are not working well at all. My money is on community spread and people just slacking off with distancing as the weather warms up.
> 
> So this raises the question for me of what is to come? While some joke about who would want to visit Manitoba anyway, we may see there being Covid carnage in Ontario and Quebec while the rest of Canada remains relatively Covid free. That might well start to make Manitoba look like a good place to move to for a while at least. Not all of Manitoba is just empty, endless prairie.
> 
> 
> https://www.travelocity.ca/Lake-Winnipeg-Cottages.d6141051-aaCottages.Travel-Guide-Accommodation
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe a few months spent Covid free on a lake there would be nice to contemplate. Manitobans might well find they need to brace themselves for an influx unlike any in the history of the province.


less than 300 new cases reported today (@Ont.) Lowest number since March


----------



## andrewf

I think the number of news cases is a too noisy to be paying attention to on a daily basis. The epidemiology curve is more useful.

Here is the one from yesterday:


https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2020-05-26.pdf



You can find each day's report here:








COVID-19: Epidemiologic summaries from Public Health Ontario


Get detailed daily and weekly reports on COVID-19covid 19 (coronavirus), that include data by age, sex, number of health care workers, cases over time, exposure type, severity, geography and outbreaks in institutions and public hospitals.




covid-19.ontario.ca





The trend for Ontario is not ideal. We were declining in new cases until mid may, then a tick back up and plateau. You can't read much into the past three days in the chart due to reporting lag. Ontario ideally should have continued declining from mid-may and should be closer to 100 new cases per day than 400. Hopefully the plateau resumes its decline, but if not we'll have to lay down the law some more.


----------



## Eder

Good to see...but the more Ontario tests the more cases they will find...more important is number of patients in ICU.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> I think the number of news cases is a too noisy to be paying attention to on a daily basis. The epidemiology curve is more useful.
> 
> Here is the one from yesterday:
> 
> 
> https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2020-05-26.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> You can find each day's report here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19: Epidemiologic summaries from Public Health Ontario
> 
> 
> Get detailed daily and weekly reports on COVID-19covid 19 (coronavirus), that include data by age, sex, number of health care workers, cases over time, exposure type, severity, geography and outbreaks in institutions and public hospitals.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid-19.ontario.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The trend for Ontario is not ideal. We were declining in new cases until mid may, then a tick back up and plateau. You can't read much into the past three days in the chart due to reporting lag. Ontario ideally should have continued declining from mid-may and should be closer to 100 new cases per day than 400. Hopefully the plateau resumes its decline, but if not we'll have to lay down the law some more.


The link I gave gives you a 5 day rolling average which removes the 'noise' of just looking at the daily number andrewf and the number of new cases reported each day with NO delay. I don't know why there is a delay in the link you provided but looking at the 5 day rolling average, it is easy enough to see we have had more than a 'tick' up and there is no 'plateau' in sight since May 12, nor was there ever a plateau before that. It went from decreasing right back to increasing.

As far as I can see, the only difference between the site you link and the site I linked is that yours is the Ontario Public Health site and mine is a CBC news site. I don't think anyone would try to suggest that the CBC is not reporting accurately the information they are being given. Their source is the Ontario Ministry of Health.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> Good to see...but the more Ontario tests the more cases they will find...more important is number of patients in ICU.


Clearly, you do not understand the significance of an upward trend in daily new cases when there has been a REDUCTION in the number of tests being done several times since May 12 when the upward trend started. No one at any level or position in Ontario is disputing that the numbers are going up and that it is NOT because of more testing being done. Spread is increasing since May 12.


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> The link I gave gives you a 5 day rolling average which removes the 'noise' of just looking at the daily number andrewf and the number of new cases reported each day with NO delay. I don't know why there is a delay in the link you provided but looking at the 5 day rolling average, it is easy enough to see we have had more than a 'tick' up and there is no 'plateau' in sight since May 12, nor was there ever a plateau before that. It went from decreasing right back to increasing.
> 
> As far as I can see, the only difference between the site you link and the site I linked is that yours is the Ontario Public Health site and mine is a CBC news site. I don't think anyone would try to suggest that the CBC is not reporting accurately the information they are being given. Their source is the Ontario Ministry of Health.


Well, you can use the CBC, but I'm more inclined to get info from the horse's mouth. The chart shows cases from time of sample being gathered. Number of new cases per day disregards when the sample was taken and only examines when the results came back. I see no mention of a 5 day rolling average in the report. Figure 1 shows by reported date, figure 2 shows from date of sympton onset.


----------



## MrMatt

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid19-ontario-gta-coronavirus-new-infections-1.5584693

Is anyone surprised?
Toronto is a high density incubator, so of course they're bad.

The problem is twofold.
Toronto is too politically important to take harsh measures with them.
If you try and lock down just Toronto, they'll flee out to cottages etc, making it worse.

So here we sit in the rest of the province waiting for them to get their $#$ together.

Yes, I acknowledge it isn't really their fault, But they're the ones cramming themselves into an expensive high density city that just isn't healthy for people to live in.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Well, you can use the CBC, but I'm more inclined to get info from the horse's mouth. The chart shows cases from time of sample being gathered. Number of new cases per day disregards when the sample was taken and only examines when the results came back. I see no mention of a 5 day rolling average in the report. Figure 1 shows by reported date, figure 2 shows from date of sympton onset.


Huh? The CBC is using the data provided by the Ontario Ministry of Health andrewf. They aren't making up their own data, they are getting it 'from the horse's mouth.' It's just a different horse from the one you are looking at.

If you hover your pointer over the chart on the link I provided, you will see it shows daily cases and ALSO shows a 5 day rolling average. Here it is again: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/chart-ontario-covid-19-cases-over-time-1.5545112
It has dropped over the last 2 days after having risen since May 12, two days after Mother's Day on May 10th. Do you see a correlation? I do.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid19-ontario-gta-coronavirus-new-infections-1.5584693
> 
> Is anyone surprised?
> Toronto is a high density incubator, so of course they're bad.
> 
> The problem is twofold.
> Toronto is too politically important to take harsh measures with them.
> If you try and lock down just Toronto, they'll flee out to cottages etc, making it worse.
> 
> So here we sit in the rest of the province waiting for them to get their $#$ together.
> 
> Yes, I acknowledge it isn't really their fault, But they're the ones cramming themselves into an expensive high density city that just isn't healthy for people to live in.


I do not agree with the idea of a 'regional' easing since as you say, it will just lead to people from the GTA going out to any areas with less restrictions and potentially bringing the virus into those areas.

I do not see though why Toronto cannot and has not got a handle on their cases when other cities have done so. Vancouver is a 'high density incubator' and while they had an initial high rate of cases, both the city and BC overall have done a better job of containing the spread. So why should Toronto not be able to do as well per capita as Vancouver has?

If people will not voluntarily follow the restrictions, then you have to take more punishing steps for THOSE who do not comply. I would not suggest punishing all Torontonians, most are complying I'm sure but as the 'party' in the park on Saturday shows, there is a minority who are openly and PURPOSELY defying the restrictions. You don't get 10,000 people each individually deciding to go to that park on that day. It was an ORGANIZED 'flash mob'. That speaks to INTENTIONAL.

When that happens, that group should be punished and in a way that hurts. There were only 4 tickets written as far as I know. That's not good enough.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I do not see though why Toronto cannot and has not got a handle on their cases when other cities have done so.


It will over time, could be many reasons why Toronto has it worse and is slower to recover.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> It will over time, could be many reasons why Toronto has it worse and is slower to recover.


High density living == close contact == covid spread.

When you can't go from your residence to the sidewalk without passing confined spaces with large amounts of people passing through, you have a problem.
It's just not healthy.

Toronto
4,149.5 people per square kilometer

London Ontario
178.1 persons per square kilometre

New York is over twice Toronto.
Population density in Toronto significantly less compared to other major cities: Fraser Institute

Density== bad


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Toronto
> 4,149.5 people per square kilometer


Vancouver has 5,249 people per square kilometer ...


----------



## Money172375

Perhaps diversity plays a part. A lot of people who’s first language is not English. I suspect Toronto is *much* more diverse then any other part of Canada.

a family member told me the hardest hit areas in toronto, mississauga and Brampton (all part of the gta) are the areas which have high immigrant populations. So theoretically it can be tied to language barriers, culture, income disparity (Finding higher incomes are equating to more delivery options).


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Vancouver has 5,249 people per square kilometer ...


Yes, and if they had enough seed cases, they'd have a huge problem.
But for many reasons they didn't get that high.

As much as it's easy to dump on Toronto, they're in a really tough spot.


----------



## cainvest

It's official, Phase 2 begins on June 1 for Manitoba!

Gonna be weird going into a restaurant again.


----------



## Retired Peasant

Longtimeago said:


> As far as I can see, the only difference between the site you link and the site I linked is that yours is the Ontario Public Health site and mine is a CBC news site. I don't think anyone would try to suggest that the CBC is not reporting accurately the information they are being given. Their source is the Ontario Ministry of Health.


And yet, you were the one that said...


Longtimeago;2071272 said:


> Anyone who relies on the mainstream media for information is an idiot in my opinion.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> High density living == close contact == covid spread.
> 
> When you can't go from your residence to the sidewalk without passing confined spaces with large amounts of people passing through, you have a problem.
> It's just not healthy.
> 
> Toronto
> 4,149.5 people per square kilometer
> 
> London Ontario
> 178.1 persons per square kilometre
> 
> New York is over twice Toronto.
> Population density in Toronto significantly less compared to other major cities: Fraser Institute
> 
> Density== bad


That doesn't explain why Vancouver has done so much better MrMatt.

"_Vancouver is also the most densely populated city in Canada with more than 5,249 people per square kilometer (13,590/sq mi), and the 4th most densely populated city in North America._"

Taken from here: Vancouver Population 2020 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs)

That in fact entirely refutes any suggestion that it is about density ALONE. Density is a factor obviously but there are other factors as well and it is in those other factors that Toronto doesn't seem to be doing as well.

So how fast, how restrictive and how well enforced restrictions were put in place and continue to be dealt with. HOw good a job is being done in testing and tracing of cases. How compliant the people are with the restrictions. When we hear about 'blackmarket' hair cutters in Toronto with 124 complaints being received as of May 20, in Toronto, what are we to think?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/black-market-barbers-1.5575918



From which can emerge situations like this one.








A hairstylist worked while symptomatic and exposed 91 people to coronavirus | CNN


A hairstylist with coronavirus worked for eight days this month while symptomatic, exposing as many as 91 customers and coworkers in Missouri, health officials said.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Longtimeago

Retired Peasant said:


> And yet, you were the one that said...


And yet you seem to be unable to read. The source is the Ontario Ministry of Health, NOT the media.

You really aren't very good at trying to 'catch people out' PEASANT.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> It's official, Phase 2 begins on June 1 for Manitoba!
> 
> Gonna be weird going into a restaurant again.


I am wondering what the point of going into a restaurant will be. I mean, I can't see it as being an enjoyable dining experience when you have to practice distancing and may be sitting there thinking about the increased risk in being there for the entire time you are eating. Gulp and go?


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I am wondering what the point of going into a restaurant will be. I mean, I can't see it as being an enjoyable dining experience when you have to practice distancing and may be sitting there thinking about the increased risk in being there for the entire time you are eating. Gulp and go?


Obviously if I'm going into a restaurant to eat I'm not going to be worried about it otherwise why would one go? It'll just be weird as I haven't been to one in a while because they have been closed for dining inside.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Obviously if I'm going into a restaurant to eat I'm not going to be worried about it otherwise why would one go? It'll just be weird as I haven't been to one in a while because they have been closed for dining inside.


I can see someone accepting the risk that will still exist when they are in a province with zero KNOWN cases active cainvest but even then, I would think there will be some residual concern in the back of your mind that you are incurring some degree of risk.

You may accept that risk but it will not be the same as it was in the past where you would have had no thought about risk at all. If there is even a tiny 'niggle' of concern, then that will detract from the dining experience. 

Life is going to be like BC and AD. There was BC (before Covid) and there is now DC (during Covid) and there MAY eventually be AC (after Covid).


----------



## Longtimeago

Some epidemiologists are suggesting that there will in fact never be an AC. New strains of Covid may be with us from now on just as new strains of the common flu are. The difference being the death rate from the new Covid viruses may be so much higher than they are for the common flu, as seen with this current Covid-19 strain.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I can see someone accepting the risk that will still exist when they are in a province with zero KNOWN cases active cainvest but even then, I would think there will be some residual concern in the back of your mind that you are incurring some degree of risk.
> 
> You may accept that risk but it will not be the same as it was in the past where you would have had no thought about risk at all. If there is even a tiny 'niggle' of concern, then that will detract from the dining experience.


Nope, won't take away from my dining experience at all LTA. It's just another minimal (and accepted) risk associated with living. Do you think about dying in a car accident everytime you go out for a drive? I hope you don't as that would really suck living a life like that.

Honestly, I'm even starting to forget we even had a pandemic here. Of course I'm reminded of it when I go into a store but it really doesn't conern me much anymore with our numbers so low.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Nope, won't take away from my dining experience at all LTA. It's just another minimal (and accepted) risk associated with living. Do you think about dying in a car accident everytime you go out for a drive? I hope you don't as that would really suck living a life like that.
> 
> Honestly, I'm even starting to forget we even had a pandemic here. Of course I'm reminded of it when I go into a store but it really doesn't conern me much anymore with our numbers so low.


I don't think they are the same at all. Some risks are simply more acceptable than others. I can't really enjoy life if I never get in a car because of a fear of an accident, but avoiding eating in a restaurant is not something that will impact my enjoyment of life at all. Generally speaking, I don't enjoy restaurants all that much anyway, I'm not a 'restaurant foodie'.

It may also be a case of 'you can't see there from here', one of my favourite sayings. I am not in the same position here in Ontario as you now are in Manitoba. So how the world looks to you may be 'post pandemic' but my world is still very much 'during pandemic' and so I can't see your world from where I am now. Maybe I will get to that point of accepting going into a restaurant when Ontario has had zero new cases in several weeks, who knows.


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> I don't think they are the same at all. Some risks are simply more acceptable than others. I can't really enjoy life if I never get in a car because of a fear of an accident, but avoiding eating in a restaurant is not something that will impact my enjoyment of life at all. Generally speaking, I don't enjoy restaurants all that much anyway, I'm not a 'restaurant foodie'.
> 
> It may also be a case of 'you can't see there from here', one of my favourite sayings. I am not in the same position here in Ontario as you now are in Manitoba. So how the world looks to you may be 'post pandemic' but my world is still very much 'during pandemic' and so I can't see your world from where I am now. Maybe I will get to that point of accepting going into a restaurant when Ontario has had zero new cases in several weeks, who knows.


My point being, if the risk is small enough I don't even bother to consider it. I don't worry each year when flu season comes, driving my car, riding my motorcycles, etc. It's not a risk/reward situation when the risk is very small.

Now if I was in an Ontario area with a significant number new cases everyday I'd be concerned if they allowed restaurants to open and I probably wouldn't go.


----------



## Retired Peasant

Longtimeago said:


> And yet you seem to be unable to read. The source is the Ontario Ministry of Health, NOT the media.
> 
> You really aren't very good at trying to 'catch people out' PEASANT.


Your source was CBC.


----------



## sags

The Ford government still hasn't issued the pledged $4 increase to front line workers. They say it will be paid out sometime in June.

It appears to be a consistent theme with the Ford government. Lots of talk, but no real action without media browbeating involved.

Ontario is behind on testing. They apparently have no idea what to do now about nursing home conditions, but talk of some future commission.

The reporter questions are becoming focused. They want answers and Ford isn't providing any.

Today, he was asked about eliminating inspections and whose decision that was. He was asked if people would be held accountable.

He didn't look very comfortable and it is getting more difficult for him to answer the questions. He just repeats the same phrases over and over.

He may decide to send a PR rep in his place in the near future.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario does away with TOU hydro pricing until oct 31. Sets rate at $0.128 kw/hr.





__





Ontario Newsroom







news.ontario.ca


----------



## andrewf

^That represents a significant price increase for me as ~90% of my consumption is at the off-peak rate. I think they should charge consumers the lesser of the normal TOU rates and this flat rate.


----------



## Money172375

andrewf said:


> ^That represents a significant price increase for me as ~90% of my consumption is at the off-peak rate. I think they should charge consumers the lesser of the normal TOU rates and this flat rate.


How do you get 90%....the best I can get is around 70%...is nobody home during the daytime? We get spikes around all meal times. then again, we’re all electric so have heat and hot water to contend with......and the a/c in the summer.


----------



## andrewf

Normally not home during the day.


----------



## Money172375

Quebec continues to loosen restrictions faster than Ontario....even though Quebec seems to have a worse situation.

They’ve opened schools a few weeks back and now are opening public pools.


----------



## sags

Our cases here are trending back up the last couple of days. We had dropped from 100 + cases to 80 + cases and are now back to 100 + cases again.

It looks like "opening up" is having the effect that health officials feared might happen.


----------



## Longtimeago

sags said:


> Our cases here are trending back up the last couple of days. We had dropped from 100 + cases to 80 + cases and are now back to 100 + cases again.
> 
> It looks like "opening up" is having the effect that health officials feared might happen.


When you write 'here' you are assuming that readers know where 'here' is.

Ontario is now exceeding Quebec in daily new cases. Roughly 400 vs. 200. What's more, it has just come out that 700 positive cases in the GTA were 'missed' in the count and 'missed' being passed on to Public Health for tracing! This happened over the last few weeks and who knows how many people those 700 went on to infect by now.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hospitals-missed-telling-public-health-confirmed-cases-1.5593572



Sadly, Ontario has not done well in terms of testing and tracing and just can't seem to get their act together at all on this aspect of the situation.


----------



## Plugging Along

@cainvest Here' an article for you (you are in MB right?)

I am not sure it's enough to have me move to Winnepeg especially that I hate mosquitoes, but glad things are working out there. I hope the rest of the Canada will follow suit soon.

Winnipeg the Envy of NA

(link fixed - hopefully)


----------



## cainvest

Plugging Along said:


> @cainvest Here' an article for you (you are in MB right?)
> 
> I am not sure it's enough to have me move to Winnepeg especially that I hate mosquitoes, but glad things are working out there. I hope the rest of the Canada will follow suit soon.


Your link didn't work but easily found the article.

If nothing else, I hope Winnipeg shows that it can be done, be it our own actions that slowed the virus, luck or a combination of the two.

We'll see what this next phase of re-opening does and if the virus will stay under control here.


----------



## cainvest

Plugging Along said:


> @cainvest Here' an article for you (you are in MB right?)
> Winnipeg the Envy of NA


Well, we'll see how this is going to go. I'm seeing a fair number of people getting together now, many backyard gatherings, small groups hanging out at the local Timmy's, etc. It's good all of our recent cases have been travel related but I think many here are now treating it like it's normal again. Time will tell ...


----------



## MrMatt

Well Ontario is still struggling, but we're clearly on the downslope.
If only Toronto would get their [email protected]#$ together, this could be over.
FYI Toronto, Peel & York are all the GTA - Greater Toronto Area, 



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid19-reopening-stage-2-doug-ford-1.5598072


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Well Ontario is still struggling, but we're clearly on the downslope.
> If only Toronto would get their [email protected]#$ together, this could be over.
> FYI Toronto, Peel & York are all the GTA - Greater Toronto Area,
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid19-reopening-stage-2-doug-ford-1.5598072


My concern MrMatt is that because of all the pressure from business to open up more, Ford will cave in to the regional approach. Where we are located for example we have basically had 47 cases since the start, not counting one major outbreak in one business. But in the Windsor Essex county right next to us, they currently have 1000 open cases. There is no question that if they open up more in our county, people will travel from 'next door' to get access to whatever is opened up.

Notice how the messages have changed over time. 'Stay home as much as possible' was and still should be the primary message given out. When is the last time you heard it? Then came, 'maintain physical distancing' which has now given way to , 'wear a mask if you can't maintain distance.'

So what are the public to think? 'Oh, I can go out now as long as I wear a mask.' That message will never result in Toronto 'getting their **** together'. The only way Toronto is really going to get their numbers down is if people stay home. That of course is the exact opposite of what the pressure is on to do.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> My concern MrMatt is that because of all the pressure from business to open up more, Ford will cave in to the regional approach. Where we are located for example we have basically had 47 cases since the start, not counting one major outbreak in one business. But in the Windsor Essex county right next to us, they currently have 1000 open cases. There is no question that if they open up more in our county, people will travel from 'next door' to get access to whatever is opened up.
> 
> Notice how the messages have changed over time. 'Stay home as much as possible' was and still should be the primary message given out. When is the last time you heard it? Then came, 'maintain physical distancing' which has now given way to , 'wear a mask if you can't maintain distance.'
> 
> So what are the public to think? 'Oh, I can go out now as long as I wear a mask.' That message will never result in Toronto 'getting their **** together'. The only way Toronto is really going to get their numbers down is if people stay home. That of course is the exact opposite of what the pressure is on to do.


Exactly my concern.
The public is being told that it is okay to go out as long as you're wearing a mask.








Trudeau takes a knee at anti-racism demonstration


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau knelt on the ground as part of a crowd gathered on Parliament Hill Friday afternoon, in solidarity with anti-racism demonstrators protesting police killings of Black people.



www.ctvnews.ca





Face it, the lockdown has failed.
They barely enforced it, and now the political leaders, from the very top, are saying that you don't need to.
I'm all for it, but quite honestly, when thousands of people get together in massive street parties, why am I punishing myself and locking myself away for months on end?


----------



## Eder

Yes....apparently the horror media reported about a man playing in the park with his kid is over, and gathering of thousands is encouraged and all the stars including JT need to be seen in the midst of it. So easily manipulated.


----------



## andrewf

I have been skeptical for some time about the risk posed by reasonably spaced outdoor gathering, especially with masks. I think some of the crowds seen are too densely packed, and would not at all surprised to see a resurgence of cases due to these gatherings.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I have been skeptical for some time about the risk posed by reasonably spaced outdoor gathering, especially with masks. I think some of the crowds seen are too densely packed, and would not at all surprised to see a resurgence of cases due to these gatherings.


I guess these unlawful assemblies will be a good test of how quickly COVID19 spreads.


----------



## andrewf

You see a lot of people embracing, huddled together, without masks. I think that is a recipe from trouble. I heard about a farm in Niagara where 60 migrant workers have developed an infection because of one outside case of community transmission (likely a shopping excursion). I think it is possible to protest in a way that reasonably balances the risk, but it looks like a lot of people are not following those precautions.









COVID-19 sickens 60 Pioneer Flower Farms workers


Health department confirms 40 new cases confirmed Wednesday, all connected to greenhouse outbreak




www.stcatharinesstandard.ca


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I think it is possible to protest in a way that reasonably balances the risk, but it looks like a lot of people are not following those precautions.


They feel their cause is just, so it's okay. Just like the idiots going to church unsafely.

Of course they're not going to ticket these @$#[email protected] for violating the health order. Though I'd love to see Trudeau getting written up.


----------



## Eder

I guess there's no reason we can't have the CFL play their games with fan seating...no different than the race protest JT attended and much less violent.


----------



## Longtimeago

While people have the right to protest and I think in the current case that they have a just cause to do so, it is unrealistic to think that it can be done while maintaining physical distancing. I see no real point in even discussing the question of can there be a protest of thousands of people and an expectation that distancing will be maintained. It's simply not possible for the two to co-exist.

There is no doubt that the protests will lead to a spike in cases, that's not worth discussing either. Unfortunately, those will occur in the exact locations where there are already the worst numbers. ie. the cities.


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> While people have the right to protest and I think in the current case that they have a just cause to do so, it is unrealistic to think that it can be done while maintaining physical distancing. I see no real point in even discussing the question of can there be a protest of thousands of people and an expectation that distancing will be maintained. It's simply not possible for the two to co-exist.
> 
> There is no doubt that the protests will lead to a spike in cases, that's not worth discussing either. Unfortunately, those will occur in the exact locations where there are already the worst numbers. ie. the cities.


They have a right to protest, but the health order is a reasonable limit.
They're breaking the law, they're getting away with it, and they wonder why people don't take them seriously.

They really don't care about the underlying issue. 
If they really cared about lives, (Black, All, whatever) they'd be trying to help get COVID19 under control.

COVID19 doesn't care what you were doing when you were exposed, and I don't either.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> They feel their cause is just, so it's okay. Just like the idiots going to church unsafely.


Around where I live, I think churchgoers have been respecting the public health orders. The 3 churches in my vicinity all have notes on the door clearly explaining that they are closed until further notice.

In the US, it's been very different though and people have kept going to church (and undoubtedly infecting each other).


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Around where I live, I think churchgoers have been respecting the public health orders. The 3 churches in my vicinity all have notes on the door clearly explaining that they are closed until further notice.
> 
> In the US, it's been very different though and people have kept going to church (and undoubtedly infecting each other).


Well to be fair, in the current political climate, traditional western religions are considered bad, but the new religions of climate change and racism/intersectionality are important and good.


----------



## cainvest

Manitoba is one week into our Phase 2 plan now. Case numbers remain low with infected mostly (all?) related to out of province travel.

Over the weekend I did some shopping with some stores still using additional precautions like "follow the arrows" and other stores not. Retail stores, for the most part, were very busy and I'd guesstimate 50% of people are still being very conscious of the 2m rule. A number of restaurants have limited indoor seating areas open now but a fair amount still remained closed except those with patios. Overall a very small percentage of the public are using masks but most business employees are. 

Phase 3, which allows many larger indoor gatherings (bars, casinos, etc), is scheduled to start two weeks from now.


----------



## Longtimeago

cainvest said:


> Manitoba is one week into our Phase 2 plan now. Case numbers remain low with infected mostly (all?) related to out of province travel.
> 
> Over the weekend I did some shopping with some stores still using additional precautions like "follow the arrows" and other stores not. Retail stores, for the most part, were very busy and I'd guesstimate 50% of people are still being very conscious of the 2m rule. A number of restaurants have limited indoor seating areas open now but a fair amount still remained closed except those with patios. Overall a very small percentage of the public are using masks but most business employees are.
> 
> Phase 3, which allows many larger indoor gatherings (bars, casinos, etc), is scheduled to start two weeks from now.


LOL, how do you use a mask in a restaurant? Poke a hole and eat through a straw? I still can't see the point of opening restaurants unless you are going to simply take the risk attached. The same is true of going into retail stores etc. for non-essential reasons.

We are not in the same position as New Zealand which is now officially Covid free having had no new cases in over 2 weeks. They have lifted all restrictions except on travel into the country.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario moving to phase 2 on Friday for parts outside of the GTA. Patios, barbershops, pools can open. 

almost 3 months later, still very difficult to find hand saniztizer and Disinfectant spray or disinfectant wipes. Is it all going to risk areas/services? Or still a manufacturing shortfall?


----------



## andrewf

I suspect hoarding. I was able to buy a small bottlle of hand sanitizer at SDM yesterday ($5 yikes). They had hundreds.


----------



## Plugging Along

Money172375 said:


> Ontario moving to phase 2 on Friday for parts outside of the GTA. Patios, barbershops, pools can open.
> 
> almost 3 months later, still very difficult to find hand saniztizer and Disinfectant spray or disinfectant wipes. Is it all going to risk areas/services? Or still a manufacturing shortfall?


Wipes are still really difficult to find. I think because people are going crazy with disinfecting everything with the wipes when other things can work. Wipes should really be used for when you go out. They sell out within minutes of being stocked. Disinfectant sprays are hit and miss, they can be found, but the shelves are sometimes bare. Hand sanitizer I have seen in many places. They are just really expensive. A small bottle is $4-7, large bottles up to $25. I used to pay $2 and $9. 

Supply is starting to catch up and there are new players in the market. However, as people go out more, demand is also increasing. 

Masks are found everywhere now, and prices a started to drop. I saw some a Costco for $29, though it used to be under $10.


----------



## Money172375

If there ever is a vaccine, I can’t way to see the supply chain and rollout.


----------



## Eder

There are several vaccines that work just none approved for the masses yet. I think the market has priced this news in already.


----------



## MrMatt

Eder said:


> There are several vaccines that work just none approved for the masses yet. I think the market has priced this news in already.


I haven't heard that
I heard they've got trials, but that is far different from "working"


----------



## cainvest

Longtimeago said:


> We are not in the same position as New Zealand which is now officially Covid free having had no new cases in over 2 weeks. They have lifted all restrictions except on travel into the country.


We're getting close here, 7 days with no new cases and the small amount for weeks before have been related to out of province travel. Providing we don't get a surge from infected travelers we should be close to virus free by July.


----------



## andrewf

Starting to see encouraging trends in Ontario. While the case count has not been declining as smoothly as we might like to see, deaths have steadily been declining from the peak of ~60 per day, down to about ~10 per day now. The new case count rate might have been a bit lumpy due to reporting delays and higher detection rates due to higher testing.


----------



## sags

The Ontario government won't reveal the medical experts who are "advising" the government.

Either the experts don't want their name attached to the recommendation or the government isn't getting advice from any experts.

_"I don't think [Ford] has an expert on speed dial," said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto's Faculty of Information.

"The decision making tells me it is not being driven by expertise."_



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-experts-covid-1.5603327


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Starting to see encouraging trends in Ontario. While the case count has not been declining as smoothly as we might like to see, deaths have steadily been declining from the peak of ~60 per day, down to about ~10 per day now. The new case count rate might have been a bit lumpy due to reporting delays and higher detection rates due to higher testing.


Don't start counting your chickens just yet andrewf. The death count may well be dropping because the area of highest deaths (long term care homes) have a lot less people left alive to add to the count. 

As for new cases, that may quite easily start to rise again with the announced regional opening of some businesses. A local hairdresser was interviewed now that they can start booking appointments in our area. Next door to us so to speak, Windsor-Essex is not yet being allowed to open and within 24 hours of the announcement according to this local hairdresser she was getting calls for bookings that included a large percentage of people from Windsor-Essex.

She is struggling with how to deal with it. Does she refuse them appointments and only deal with local clientel or does she take the appointments and thus potentially add to the risk to locals by 'encouraging' people from this higher risk area to come in. While she is struggling with her conscience over this question, I am sure there will be many who don't struggle at all. They'll probably start working two shifts days and evenings and it will be 'come one, come all.'


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Starting to see encouraging trends in Ontario. While the case count has not been declining as smoothly as we might like to see, deaths have steadily been declining from the peak of ~60 per day, down to about ~10 per day now. The new case count rate might have been a bit lumpy due to reporting delays and higher detection rates due to higher testing.


Just wait until the cases from the protests.

I'm sure someone will start complaining that COVID19 is racist, because it's "brutalizing" the protestors.

Unless COVID19 was a hoax, we're going to see significant impacts on those protestors, which will just go to further push their "proof" that the system is against them. When really it's simply their own bad decisions.

Funny that the Ontario mayors are ignoring the health orders to protest the COVID19 lockdown now, kind of like those silly #COVIDIOT lockdown protestors down in the US


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> Don't start counting your chickens just yet andrewf. The death count may well be dropping because the area of highest deaths (long term care homes) have a lot less people left alive to add to the count.


Are you suggesting that most of the elderly population has already died of COVID?


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Unless COVID19 was a hoax, we're going to see significant impacts on those protestors, which will just go to further push their "proof" that the system is against them. When really it's simply their own bad decisions.


The other possibility is that being outdoors is a lot less risky than close contact indoors. Most of the superspreader events have been indoors.

And to be fair, a couple of months ago there was more uncertainty about what activities were risky vs relatively safe. I think the evidence has been piling up that being outdoors is a lot less risky (but not risk free). I think a Chinese study found they could identify only one case that transmitted outdoors out of thousands.


----------



## Prairie Guy

andrewf said:


> Are you suggesting that most of the elderly population has already died of COVID?


Probably just the low hanging fruit.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Are you suggesting that most of the elderly population has already died of COVID?


No, I'm reminding you that many of those in long term care have already died of Covid and were a large part of the deaths reported to date. Now as a result, there are fewer of them and that is contributing to fewer deaths being reported. So saying the reduced death count is 'encouraging' isn't necessarily true or indicative of our doing a better job of containing and treating Covid.

Quebec has had 80% of all their deaths in long term care homes. Ontario around 60% I think. So if you take those numbers out of the count and then compare past death counts to current death counts, the decrease will obviously not be as significant. The new case count is a far better metric to look at to see how we are doing and the best metric to look at is the 'R' number which we never seem to hear much about even though that is what really matters.








What the coronavirus reproduction number is, and why we should keep an eye on it - National | Globalnews.ca


How well are we containing coronavirus? Experts say to look at the "R number," or reproduction number. Here's what it is and why it matters.




globalnews.ca





On this link: As Canada slowly reopens, here are six coronavirus numbers to keep an eye on 
you will find past half way down the page, this statement:
"*Is a pandemic getting worse, getting better or staying the same? *_Epidemiologists tell us to look at something called the ‘reproduction number,’ or ‘R number,’ to get an idea. The math of how it’s calculated is complex, but the concept is very simple: on average, how many other people does someone with coronavirus infect?

We want to see an R number as far below 1 as possible.

In mid-March, as Canada started to shut down schools and businesses, the R number was a potentially catastrophic 2.8. That had the potential for an out-of-control pandemic: if one person on average infects 2.8 people, and each of those people infected 2.8 more people, hospitals would quickly have been overwhelmed.

Now, as you can see, the R number is around .8, which means the outbreak is shrinking, though not as quickly as we would like."_

So that is what should 'encourage' us or not. We never seem to hear this being talked about on the media though or in government updates. You have to dig for it to find it.


https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-epi-evolution-case-growth-ontario.pdf?la=en


You will find it on page 7 there and as you will see it is going UP in some areas right now.

So that is the best way to assess whether or not we are seeing anything 'encouraging' in Ontario right now and the answer is no we are not, the R number is discouraging right now.
_

_


----------



## andrewf

I fail to follow your logic. The number of elderly people in LTC has not substantially declined. So if deaths are significantly decreased, it likely means we are doing a better job of preventing outbreaks. If they were continuing to be infected at the same rate, deaths would also remain elevated. As I said, I would read the disproportionate decline in deaths compared to new cases to be driven by better detection (we were missing more cases before) and perhaps a function of mix (fewer older/vulnerable people getting infected and more younger people). You can be upset all you want at me if you don't like me describing a steady decline in deaths to be encouraging.

If you dig into the report you reference, the one region where the R increased significantly recently in Central West region. Go into that a bit deeper and you see it was likely driven by a superspreader event in Haldimand-Norfolk. Nonetheless, the overall trend is moving in a positive direction. This is a specific situation related to migrant farm workers who live in close contact and are infected from the community, making it easy to spread. You can't interpet these superspreader events to be proof of wide-spread community transmission. It just shows how accommodations for these migrant workers needs to be improved to reduce the likelihood of these situations.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/85-migrant-workers-norfolk-county-coronavirus-1.5592482


----------



## andrewf

I should add that the calculation of the R number is imperfect if you don't have robust and consistent testing. If you start to detect an ever-higher percentage of cases over time, it will make the estimate of R erroneously high. I don't know that the estimate of R at 0.8 accounts for this change in testing effectiveness. Estimating R is a bit like conducting a poll. If your sample is imperfect the results can be misleading.


----------



## Longtimeago

All the numbers are imperfect andrewf for various reasons. Nevertheless, the R number is what the epidemiologists say is the most reliable figure to look at to determine if the epidemic is getting worse, better or staying the same. At this point, we cannot say it is getting better in Ontario and that should be discouraging to hear when we are now opening up businesses which can only add to spread, not detract from spread.

What I don't understand is why we never hear about it. In speaking to a cousin in Scotland a few days ago, he told me the R number is the number one metric their government spokespeople are referring to every single day. Is it up, is it down, how much better is it than the R number in England, why they think it is up or down, etc.

If you Google for 'Scotland covid R number' you easily get information and can see it is being updated by officials.https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/06/11/sturgeon-says-scotland-making-real-progress-on-covid-19-as-r-number-falls/

If you Google, 'England covid R number' you also get recent info from the media or officials.








 What is the coronavirus R number and is it rising in the UK?


Research suggests the average number of people one person infects may be increasing – but opinions differ as to why




www.theguardian.com





It is much harder to hide what is happening if you talk about the R number than it is if you talk about new cases or deaths for which you can easily find excuses for rises and falls. If they simply put up a weekly running average of the R number for an area, province or the whole of Canada each day, we could see very clearly what is happening and be able to see what affect easing up is having.

And if you read the Guardian article you will see an explanation that includes things like the migrant worker type spreads that skew numbers. You will also see why we should be watching the R number very carefully nevertheless. Take the group skew numbers out and watch the rest, if it goes up that means community spread is increasing and that is bad news indeed.

We however are not being given that information here on a continuous basis as I believe we should be given.


----------



## andrewf

What is your point, LTA, that COVID-19 situation in Ontario is as bad as it has ever been? No evidence supports that point of view. If you want to lie in order to play up the danger and to make people be more cautious, I guess that's your prerogative. I don't agree. If you play chicken little no one is going to listen to you.


----------



## sags

Our local numbers are the same as they were in the middle of May.

LTC cases have fallen to near zero, while "community spread" cases have ramped up significantly.

1 new infection coming from the local prison. That isn't good with the overcrowding there.


----------



## sags

Ontario is opening up LTC and retirement homes.

I don't know how they expect the homes to get the additional workers.

They are already working short staffed and they will have to monitor a stream of visitors now.

We are also approaching "summer vacation" time and it is a problem in normal years to staff all the vacationing employees for weeks. 

My wife typically works so many hours they have to pay her overtime on her paycheques in July and August. (more than 75 hours bi-weekly).

There are only 2 LTC and retirement homes that don't have a COVID infection in our area, so the virus hasn't "gone away" yet.

We shall see how this plan works out.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> What is your point, LTA, that COVID-19 situation in Ontario is as bad as it has ever been? No evidence supports that point of view. If you want to lie in order to play up the danger and to make people be more cautious, I guess that's your prerogative. I don't agree. If you play chicken little no one is going to listen to you.


Why are you talking about lying? I don't see where I have lied about anything. 

No it is not as 'bad as ever' but I never said it was. What I said was we don't hear about the R number and I think we should be hearing about it. If we did and so how it is moving, we might think differently about how quickly we are opening things up. 

I watched CTV Toronto news this morning and other than listing 'the numbers' which did not include the R number or any discussion as to how we are doing with containing the virus. Instead, all Covid related comments, interviews, etc. were all about the effect on businesses. NO reporting on how we are actually doing with coping with the virus itself. See the difference? It is as if the virus itself is no longer a topic, only the effects on businesses. 

Again, contrast that to other places such as Scotland which has still not gone into 'phase 2 re-opening' even though their current R number is around 0.6 to 0.8. The head of government in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon is making it clear that control of the virus is primary, not what business wants.

Read this article andrewf and even note what is still appearing on the front of the lecturn and in the background in the picture. Stay at Home is still the prime message. Sturgeon expects virus will continue to decline 
Sturgeon is resisting all pressure from business to re-open before she and those advsing her, say it is OK to do. Control of the virus is being put ahead of the economy even though they recognize they need to go as quickly as they CAN in re-opening the economy.

As I see it, here in Canada, our politicians are giving in to the pressure from business and re-opening before our R numbers indicate that we should begin to do so. That's my point andrewf and if going to fast results in a resurgence of the virus, we could be back where we started in short order.


----------



## andrewf

I don't think it is pressure from business, it is pressure from people.

We got on this line of conversation because you took issue with me characterizing that recent data in Ontario was encouraging. I stand by that. Encouraging doesn't mean 'everything is fine', just that the province seems to be making headway, while a week or two ago things were looking rather concerning.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> I don't think it is pressure from business, it is pressure from people.
> 
> We got on this line of conversation because you took issue with me characterizing that recent data in Ontario was encouraging. I stand by that. Encouraging doesn't mean 'everything is fine', just that the province seems to be making headway, while a week or two ago things were looking rather concerning.


OK, we may stray off topic along the way, so I will go back to 'encouraging'. I do not see the R number as encouraging and do not see it as indicating we should be opening up more businesses. I see it not continuing to fall and that is 'discouraging'.

Look again at page 7 here: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/...9-epi-evolution-case-growth-ontario.pdf?la=en
Look from April 11 till now. Is it rising, falling or remaining the same? It was more or less remaining the same, hovering around 1 but in recent days has started rising again in some areas. That's discouraging.

So the question is, at what R number would we consider opening something up? I would say that unless it remains below 1, we should not be opening anything up as to do so simply encourages the R number to rise. In that document if you search you will find this:
" _The median estimated effective *reproduction* number for the most recent complete week (i.e., the rolling average of 7 days) in *Ontario* is 1.0 [95% CI: 0.9 – 1.0] (May 27 – June 2). This compares to 0.8 [95% CI: 0.8 – 0.9] in the prior reporting period (May 24 – May 30)."_

Do you find that encouraging? I agree with you that there is pressure from people as well as from business but you and I both know which of those two really have the 'clout' with Doug Ford.


----------



## Money172375

Caught the last bit of Ontario’s daily covid update. Did Ford say that Ontario has the best per capita infection rate in North America? Is there a source to that info?


----------



## Spudd

sags said:


> There are only 2 LTC and retirement homes that don't have a COVID infection in our area, so the virus hasn't "gone away" yet.


As far as I can see, there are only 2 LTC/retirement homes that DO have a COVID infection in your area. (on page 2 of the report linked below)






Summary of COVID-19 Cases in Middlesex-London — Middlesex-London Health Unit


Find the summary of COVID-19 cases in Middlesex-London. This information is updated daily at 12 noon.



www.healthunit.com


----------



## sags

It looks like you are right. That is better news.


----------



## MrMatt

Well, London just announced it's first BLM Protestor tested positive for COVID19.
If BLM really mattered, maybe they would have followed the Health orders and stayed home, unstead of congregating in massive croweds.


----------



## sags

There is no evidence the protestor got the virus at a rally. They could have gotten it at an outdoor patio or at a golf course.

As activities open up and people move around it makes contact tracing much more difficult.


----------



## Prairie Guy

Of course. Everyone knows it's far more likely you'll catch the virus at a golf course with a few people per acre than at a rally with a thousand people per acre.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Well, London just announced it's first BLM Protestor tested positive for COVID19.
> If BLM really mattered, maybe they would have followed the Health orders and stayed home, unstead of congregating in massive croweds.


 ... at least they were there for a much needed purpose unlike those Covidiots at Trinity Bellwoods Park in TO a couple of weeks ago who just couldn't wait to swirl beers and go pissing on someone else's lawn. Along with a mayor who had set the finest example wearning his mask down ... yakking and mingling with those bunch of Covidiots.


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> Caught the last bit of Ontario’s daily covid update. Did Ford say that Ontario has the best per capita infection rate in North America? Is there a source to that info?


You can see how we stack up here.








Coronavirus stats worldwide: Compare Canada and other key nations


Visit CTVNews.ca for an interactive look at the COVID-19 outbreak in key countries.




www.ctvnews.ca





Make sure you have the data clicked on 'per 100k'. Ontario isn't even the lowest infection rate per capita in Canada.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... at least they were there for a much needed purpose unlike those Covidiots at Trinity Bellwoods Park in TO a couple of weeks ago who just couldn't wait to swirl beers and go pissing on someone else's lawn. Along with a mayor who had set the finest example wearning his mask down ... yakking and mingling with those bunch of Covidiots.


What "much needed purpose".
We have the Prime Minister protesting the government. He's one of the most powerful political leaders in a western democracy. If he wanted to take steps to fix these problems, he could take those steps immediately.

I honestly don't know what these protestors are actually protesting, everyone is in agreement.
The thing is, it's easier to hoot and holler, destroy cities (like they are in the US), than to actually step forward and solve problems.

I don't know where you live, but in my community, we're begging for more policing.


----------



## Eder

I guess all JT's posturing & taking a knee didn't pay off...no council seat for him. Willing to prostitute our country for personal glory...f him.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I honestly don't know what these protestors are actually protesting, everyone is in agreement.


It's one thing to agree. It's another thing to actually implement change.

There are large consensus opinions in the US on many topics such as single payer health care, money in politics, gun control, etc. but these opinions are not reflected in legislation due to the influence of money and special interests.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> It's one thing to agree. It's another thing to actually implement change.
> 
> There are large consensus opinions in the US on many topics such as single payer health care, money in politics, gun control, etc. but these opinions are not reflected in legislation due to the influence of money and special interests.


There isn't a consensus on those issues.
That's part of the problem, people on one side think that the solution is obvious and there is nothing to talk about.
I'd assume you think that the consensus is.
1. Single payer health care is a good idea.
2. They should limit political spending.
3. They should have Canada style gun control
They're not even close to a consensus.
The US media is broken and lying, while armed protestors were throwing molotov cocktails, the "media" was reporting "peaceful protests".
The mainstream media totally missed the Trump victory, because they're only talking to people who agree with them.


The US health care system is broken, but for those who pay for private insurance, they don't want to be downgraded to a Canadian system. The problem is, to build a way more expensive system, that will result in a lower quality of care for most of the people paying for it, is just problematic.

There is too much money in politics, but it doesn't guarantee a win. The alternative is massive restrictions on political speech during elections. This is HUGELY problematic, look at the Canadian election gag laws and enforcement.

Gun control, bad guys shouldn't have guns, we all agree.
But who are the good guys who should have guns to stop them?
In some areas, police simply don't respond to 911 calls, court cases have ruled police have NO DUTY TO RESPOND. You look at the looting, or that in CHAZ/CHOP where the occupiers are handing out AR15's, and the government is planning to disband the police, no wonder gun sales are spiking.

The failure to recognize that different opinions even exist, let alone engaging in discussion, or acknowledging that there may be merit is the tragic failure of US politics.

They're calling Joe Rogan alt right, simply because he interviews people with different opinions. They'll cancel and petition to shut people down who disagree or discuss issues.

How about we work on things that we DO agree on?


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> What "much needed purpose".
> We have the Prime Minister protesting the government. He's one of the most powerful political leaders in a western democracy. If he wanted to take steps to fix these problems, he could take those steps immediately.
> 
> I honestly don't know what these protestors are actually protesting, everyone is in agreement.
> The thing is, it's easier to hoot and holler, destroy cities (like they are in the US), than to actually step forward and solve problems.


 ... it's okay that you keep your eyes closed, ears and mouth shut on the BLM and racism issues despite your high IQ. Moreover I didn't know that the PM is responsible for municipality policing where these protests are being held. In fact, all 3 levels of government should be working together to eradicate racism (of which I'm only fantasizing here).



> I don't know where you live, but in my community, we're begging for more policing.


 ... obviously your community ain't paying enough taxes. Policing don't come free ya know.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... it's okay that you keep your eyes closed, ears and mouth shut on the BLM and racism issues despite your high IQ. Moreover I didn't know that the PM is responsible for municipality policing where these protests are being held. In fact, all 3 levels of government should be working together to eradicate racism (of which I'm only fantasizing here).
> 
> ... obviously your community ain't paying enough taxes. Policing don't come free ya know.


Not sure what you're trying to say.
I'm very aware of the racism issue, I think it's a huge problem.
I even agree with some measures being proposed by BLM, but I think the underlying accusation of all white people are racist is false, unfair, and counterproductive.
If you say you don't care about someones race, and simply treat them like a person, that's being colourblind, and under modern rules many think that's being racist. If someone starts the conversation by accusing me of being racist, it really doesn't help any conversation. That's the fundamental problem, BLM includes an implicit accusation that someone, apparently who they're protesting against, disagrees. 
If there is a racist person, or policy, somewhere, identify it, and we can take care of it, but the whole "systematic racism" thing is pretty much an admission that they can't actually find the racist people, policies, acts etc.

As far as the PM, the criminal code and many federal laws affecting police are his responsibility.
Also the RCMP, 30% of all police in Canada.
Finally on Parliment Hill, the protest that Trudeau was at, is specifically under the authority of the PPS, which reports directly to Parliment. He was LITERALLY protesting his own police force.

Actually we pay high taxes here, the city wastes the money on other items, and has routinely bragged how we have some of the lowest per capita spending on police.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Not sure what you're trying to say.
> I'm very aware of the racism issue, I think it's a huge problem.
> I even agree with some measures being proposed by BLM, but I think the underlying accusation of *all white people are racist is false, unfair, and counterproductive.*


 ... that's your own accusation, putting words (and a whole lot of them) in other people's mouth. Who said "all"?



> If you say you don't care about someones race, and simply treat them like a person, that's being colourblind, and under modern rules many think that's being racist. If someone starts the conversation by accusing me of being racist, it really doesn't help any conversation. That's the fundamental problem, BLM includes an implicit accusation that someone, apparently who they're protesting against, disagrees.
> If there is a racist person, or policy, somewhere, identify it, and we can take care of it, but the whole "systematic racism" thing is pretty much an admission that they can't actually find the racist people, policies, acts etc.


.. really? You know racism exists everywhere with too many examples (public too) to identify and te issue hasn't gone away. And I don't think it'll go away anytime soon or as long as mankind exists on this planet. But then there's this subset population who becomes so defensive when this issue comes up. And trying to obfuscate the issue.



> As far as the PM, the criminal code and many federal laws affecting police are his responsibility.
> Also the RCMP, 30% of all police in Canada.
> Finally on Parliment Hill, the protest that Trudeau was at, is specifically under the authority of the PPS, which reports directly to Parliment. He was LITERALLY protesting his own police force.


 ... and so, you don't vote for him if you don't agree. But this doesn't mean the common people protestors in TO in the past week can't speak up ... at least for now.



> Actually we pay high taxes here, the city wastes the money on other items, and has routinely bragged how we have some of the lowest per capita spending on police.


 ... then go complain (or beg) your city council (you do have one?) for more policings. It's your right ... no use in b1tching here. .


----------



## MrMatt

I agree, racism is everywhere, and these groups are fomenting it.

Back to COVID19, the news is out that there were COVID19 positive people at the protests. I hope these #COVIDIOTS don't bring on the second wave.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> There isn't a consensus on those issues.
> That's part of the problem, people on one side think that the solution is obvious and there is nothing to talk about.
> I'd assume you think that the consensus is.
> 1. Single payer health care is a good idea.
> 2. They should limit political spending.
> 3. They should have Canada style gun control
> They're not even close to a consensus.
> The US media is broken and lying, while armed protestors were throwing molotov cocktails, the "media" was reporting "peaceful protests".
> The mainstream media totally missed the Trump victory, because they're only talking to people who agree with them.
> 
> 
> The US health care system is broken, but for those who pay for private insurance, they don't want to be downgraded to a Canadian system. The problem is, to build a way more expensive system, that will result in a lower quality of care for most of the people paying for it, is just problematic.
> 
> There is too much money in politics, but it doesn't guarantee a win. The alternative is massive restrictions on political speech during elections. This is HUGELY problematic, look at the Canadian election gag laws and enforcement.


70% of Americans support single payer.








70% of Americans now support Medicare-for-all—here's how single-payer could affect you


"Medicare is a very popular program, so the idea of expanding it to everyone is popular as well," says Larry Levitt, senior vice president for health reform at the Kaiser Family Foundation




www.cnbc.com





65% believe that laws should be introduced to reduce the role of money in politics








Most Americans want to limit campaign spending, say big donors have greater political influence


Americans overwhelmingly support limits on political campaign spending, and most think new laws could effectively reduce the role of money in politics.




www.pewresearch.org





65% believe gun controls should be made stricter








Guns


Do you have a gun in your home? In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now? Do you think there should or should not be a law that would ban the possession of handguns, except by the police and other...




news.gallup.com





If 52% is an overwhelming win in the Brexit vote that warranted no compromise with the other side (UK is going to get no-deal Brexit, which was the worst case scenario and was promised not to happen), these are opinions represent landslide support for change.


It is pretty damned faint praise to say that 'money does not _guarantee_ a win' in US politics. It is just an overwhelming advantage. Money = political power, or in other words, it is a plutocracy.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> 70% of Americans support single payer.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 70% of Americans now support Medicare-for-all—here's how single-payer could affect you
> 
> 
> "Medicare is a very popular program, so the idea of expanding it to everyone is popular as well," says Larry Levitt, senior vice president for health reform at the Kaiser Family Foundation
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 65% believe that laws should be introduced to reduce the role of money in politics
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Most Americans want to limit campaign spending, say big donors have greater political influence
> 
> 
> Americans overwhelmingly support limits on political campaign spending, and most think new laws could effectively reduce the role of money in politics.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pewresearch.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 65% believe gun controls should be made stricter
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Guns
> 
> 
> Do you have a gun in your home? In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now? Do you think there should or should not be a law that would ban the possession of handguns, except by the police and other...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.gallup.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If 52% is an overwhelming win in the Brexit vote that warranted no compromise with the other side (UK is going to get no-deal Brexit, which was the worst case scenario and was promised not to happen), these are opinions represent landslide support for change.
> 
> 
> It is pretty damned faint praise to say that 'money does _guarantee_ a win' in US politics. It is just an overwhelming advantage. Money = political power, or in other words, it is a plutocracy.


52% isn't an "overwhelming win", and nowhere near a consensus.
When a third of the country disagrees with a position, I don't think that's a consensus.

Secondly, it's easy to get a poll answered that way when you ask the loaded question.
If you asked "are you willing to accept a 50% tax rate, increased wait times, and outright denial of care, to get single payer, I think more people would say no."

Funny thing about campaign spending, it's always about shutting the other guy up.
Nobody is limiting their own spending.

When you don't know what the gun laws are, it's easy to say you need more.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I agree, racism is everywhere, and these groups are fomenting it.
> 
> Back to COVID19, the news is out that there were COVID19 positive people at the protests. I hope these #COVIDIOTS don't bring on the second wave.


Wonder how many covid cases are going to come from Trump's rally.

Given that at least half the cases are asymptomatic, it is not surprising to discover that some people in large crowds are infected. What is more relevant is how many cases were spread by the protests.


----------



## Longtimeago

I know threads take on a life of their own but there should be a point at which moderators step in to say enough is enough, respond to the topic.

This is a thread on provincial covid differences and a debate over US issues really doesn't belong here at all. Start a thread if you want to discuss US issues.. I find there are far too many comments about the USA in this forum overall. Some posters rarely post about anything other than the USA.

Back to CANADA and the provinces.

I'm going for a haircut today, my wife had her's done yesterday. Her hairdresser told her that he has been getting a lot of phone calls for appointments from out of town people in areas where they are not yet allowed to open. He is refusing them as he should but some may not be obviously.

This regional opening up in Ontario needs watching.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> 52% isn't an "overwhelming win", and nowhere near a consensus.
> When a third of the country disagrees with a position, I don't think that's a consensus.
> 
> Secondly, it's easy to get a poll answered that way when you ask the loaded question.
> If you asked "are you willing to accept a 50% tax rate, increased wait times, and outright denial of care, to get single payer, I think more people would say no."
> 
> Funny thing about campaign spending, it's always about shutting the other guy up.
> Nobody is limiting their own spending.
> 
> When you don't know what the gun laws are, it's easy to say you need more.


Americans already pay exorbitant amounts for health care. And they live at the mercy of losing their job while having a serious health problem in their family and being bankrupted (losing their life savings), that is if they are even lucky to have health insurance through their employer. Even if you do, you will find yourself 'rationed' and 'denied care' because many things are excluded from that insurance. No wait time like forever.

Are you suggesting that if people object to money in politics they should unilaterally disarm? 

There are basic things like private sales of guns with no oversight (gun show loophole) that I would think hardly anyone would object to closing, but remain open due to moneyed interests.


----------



## Prairie Guy

andrewf said:


> It is pretty damned faint praise to say that 'money does not _guarantee_ a win' in US politics. It is just an overwhelming advantage. Money = political power, or in other words, it is a plutocracy.


Hillary spent almost 3 times as much as Trump on her campaign plus had the support of 90% of the media. Even with both of those overwhelming advantages she was such a bad candidate that she still lost.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Wonder how many covid cases are going to come from Trump's rally.
> 
> Given that at least half the cases are asymptomatic, it is not surprising to discover that some people in large crowds are infected. What is more relevant is how many cases were spread by the protests.


Absolutely.
Take the politics out of it.

If crowds don't spread, end the lockdown.

But since the medical advice, and health orders are no gatherings, enforce them.

That, again, is my point. If the lockdown is justified by the science and a health order is made, it should be enforced.
Political affiliation _SHOULD_ be irrelevant.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Americans already pay exorbitant amounts for health care. And they live at the mercy of losing their job while having a serious health problem in their family and being bankrupted (losing their life savings), that is if they are even lucky to have health insurance through their employer. Even if you do, you will find yourself 'rationed' and 'denied care' because many things are excluded from that insurance. No wait time like forever.
> 
> Are you suggesting that if people object to money in politics they should unilaterally disarm?
> 
> There are basic things like private sales of guns with no oversight (gun show loophole) that I would think hardly anyone would object to closing, but remain open due to moneyed interests.


Irrelevant to the topic of the thread.


----------



## andrewf

Not sure what fish tales you have been reading. Hillary spent roughly double. Trump got a lot more free media exposure than Hillary. And, Trump lost the popular vote by a significant amount. Of course, because the US is not really much of a democracy, the popular vote is not relevant. No need to get into how the electoral system is systematically manipulated to disadvantage much of the electorate (gerrymandering, onerous ID rules, onerous registration rules and systemic deregistration of undesirables, systematic deprivation of sufficient polling places, blatantly insecure and broken electronic voting machines).









Tracking the 2016 Presidential Money Race


He won the election, but lost the money race. Trump raised half the money that Clinton raised throughout the cycle. Here’s how it was spent in the last days.




www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Longtimeago

Prairie Guy said:


> Hillary spent almost 3 times as much as Trump on her campaign plus had the support of 90% of the media. Even with both of those overwhelming advantages she was such a bad candidate that she still lost.


Irrelevant to the topic of the thread.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> Absolutely.
> Take the politics out of it.
> 
> If crowds don't spread, end the lockdown.
> 
> But since the medical advice, and health orders are no gatherings, enforce them.
> 
> That, again, is my point. If the lockdown is justified by the science and a health order is made, it should be enforced.
> Political affiliation _SHOULD_ be irrelevant.


Politics should be kept out of our response to the virus but we live in the real world where that is never going to happpen. Ford started out saying no regional opening and then caved in to business and reversed that stand. Now we have people in areas still not open, trying to get haircuts in areas that are open.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Absolutely.
> Take the politics out of it.
> 
> If crowds don't spread, end the lockdown.
> 
> But since the medical advice, and health orders are no gatherings, enforce them.
> 
> That, again, is my point. If the lockdown is justified by the science and a health order is made, it should be enforced.
> Political affiliation _SHOULD_ be irrelevant.


Crowds definitely spread it, at least under certain conditions. That seems to be particularly in enclosed spaces. Hence the flight from China where one man infected a dozen people sitting around him, or the church conference in S Korea where one infected person created a explosion of disease. If Trump were to hold the rally outdoors and recommended people wear a mask, that would probably be a much better idea. He has refused.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Not sure what fish tales you have been reading. Hillary spent roughly double. Trump got a lot more free media exposure than Hillary. And, Trump lost the popular vote by a significant amount. Of course, because the US is not really much of a democracy, the popular vote is not relevant. No need to get into how the electoral system is systematically manipulated to disadvantage much of the electorate (gerrymandering, onerous ID rules, onerous registration rules and systemic deregistration of undesirables, systematic deprivation of sufficient polling places, blatantly insecure and broken electronic voting machines).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tracking the 2016 Presidential Money Race
> 
> 
> He won the election, but lost the money race. Trump raised half the money that Clinton raised throughout the cycle. Here’s how it was spent in the last days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bloomberg.com


Irrelevant to the topic of the thread.

You know andrewf, you have over 12k posts in this forum and yet have only started 65 threads of your own. Why is that? Are you happier hijacking threads? Are you afraid if you start a thread, it will not elicit very many comments and somehow make you look bad? Why this reluctance to start a thread on a topic of interest to you?


----------



## andrewf

LTA is cruising for the ignore list...


----------



## andrewf

Longtimeago said:


> Irrelevant to the topic of the thread.
> 
> You know andrewf, you have over 12k posts in this forum and yet have only started 65 threads of your own. Why is that? Are you happier hijacking threads? Are you afraid if you start a thread, it will not elicit very many comments and somehow make you look bad? Why this reluctance to start a thread on a topic of interest to you?


At a cocktail party, are you the guy who gets upset and berates others when the conversation deviates from what he decided it should be?


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Crowds definitely spread it, at least under certain conditions. That seems to be particularly in enclosed spaces. Hence the flight from China where one man infected a dozen people sitting around him, or the church conference in S Korea where one infected person created a explosion of disease. If Trump were to hold the rally outdoors and recommended people wear a mask, that would probably be a much better idea. He has refused.


Irrelevant to the thread.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> LTA is cruising for the ignore list...


Irrelevant to the thread.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> At a cocktail party, are you the guy who gets upset and berates others when the conversation deviates from what he decided it should be?


Irrelevant to the thread.


----------



## Prairie Guy

andrewf said:


> Not sure what fish tales you have been reading. Hillary spent roughly double. Trump got a lot more free media exposure than Hillary. And, Trump lost the popular vote by a significant amount. Of course, because the US is not really much of a democracy, the popular vote is not relevant. No need to get into how the electoral system is systematically manipulated to disadvantage much of the electorate (gerrymandering, onerous ID rules, onerous registration rules and systemic deregistration of undesirables, systematic deprivation of sufficient polling places, blatantly insecure and broken electronic voting machines).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tracking the 2016 Presidential Money Race
> 
> 
> He won the election, but lost the money race. Trump raised half the money that Clinton raised throughout the cycle. Here’s how it was spent in the last days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bloomberg.com


Only Democrats think that black people are incapable of acquiring ID in order to vote. That's racist.


----------



## andrewf

Who mentioned race?


----------



## Longtimeago

Prairie Guy said:


> Only Democrats think that black people are incapable of acquiring ID in order to vote. That's racist.


Irrelevant to the thread.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Who mentioned race?


I believe some $#%$ disturber complained about the lack of enforcement on large gatherings, and the poor example that the PM was making in regards to COVID19


----------



## sags

People uprising in France and Belgium over the police trying to enforce social distancing. People met the police brandishing their own weapons.

The French police have been told to stay out of those areas and let the people do what they want. They will probably have a big mess again.


----------



## sags

Ontario is opening up, and most people seem to be observing some social distancing. I did see a lot of people crowded in the outdoor patios though.

Some downtown business owners want to close the main street for a couple of blocks and let the outdoor patios expand to hold more people.

It reminds me of a bar I was in somewhere (can't remember where), that was built with glass garage doors on all sides that could be rolled up.

The end result looked like a covered outdoor patio. Pretty good idea, I thought.


----------



## cainvest

MB is entering phase 3 on June 21 with easing to many restrictions. The public health minister stresses that the main concern of transfer is centered around prolonged indoor contact. He also mentioned that no cases came from the recent peaceful rallies held outdoors.

Probably the most interesting change is dropping the 14 day isolation for people coming from BC, AB, SK and western ON.


----------



## Money172375

It seems so far (as far as I’ve seen), that the large groups in Trinity Bellwoods, at the recent protests and other large outdoor gatherings have not led to a large increase in cases as predicted by most.

numbers seem up in some US states, but I think that’s more to do with general easing of restrictions which were too early.

Have any provinces increased their “bubbles” restrictions? Can you have 2 or more bubbles anywhere in Canada?

i figure everything will happen last here in Ontario so I’d like to see what we can look forward to. Will outdoor groups of 25 be allowed by Labour Day?


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> It seems so far (as far as I’ve seen), that the large groups in Trinity Bellwoods, at the recent protests and other large outdoor gatherings have not led to a large increase in cases as predicted by most.


If that's the case, then the experts were wrong, which is fine, in the pandemic situation, overreact and then pull back as new information becomes available.
My annoyance is that they're not pulling back, but they're selectively enforcing the restrictions based on politics.
That's wrong.


----------



## cainvest

Money172375 said:


> Have any provinces increased their “bubbles” restrictions? Can you have 2 or more bubbles anywhere in Canada?


We don't officially have "bubbles" in MB but some regulations allow others to be in close proximity, sharing golf carts as an example.

Unofficially people have been in close contact for some time now. Neighbors have small groups of people over, etc.


----------



## andrewf

I have been seeing family members, just avoiding contact (no hugging, etc. and trying to maintain distance). Bubbles are kind of unworkable. Each person is going to have their own bubble, like my sister and her inlaws. Maybe that is good enough.


----------



## james4beach

I visit my close family members all the time. My parents are quite needy; it's unrealistic to avoid them entirely.

I see them almost daily, though we don't hug, and keep some distance.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> I have been seeing family members, just avoiding contact (no hugging, etc. and trying to maintain distance). Bubbles are kind of unworkable. Each person is going to have their own bubble, like my sister and her inlaws. Maybe that is good enough.


I question the practicality of bubbles as well. If one person in your bubble goes to work for example then they expose all of your bubble to whoever they come into close contact with while they are working. The only way to maintain a bubble would be if no member of the bubble ever has any outside contact with other people.

I think the same applies to 'regional' opening as we now have in Ontario. It is impossible to not have people from Toronto not travel into areas where things are more open. Hairdressers are getting calls for appointments, restaurants are getting people driving out of the city to go for a meal, etc.


----------



## Longtimeago

South Bruce County in Ontario are re-closing their beaches.








Ontario woman who killed cyclist while driving drunk charged with impaired driving on parole


An Ontario woman convicted of killing a cyclist while driving drunk has again been charged with impaired driving after multiple 911 calls about a vehicle travelling erratically on Highway 400 Sunday.



toronto.ctvnews.ca





Toronto beach goers also gave the lie to the expectation that we can trust people to behave responsibly as things are opened up.








Ontario woman who killed cyclist while driving drunk charged with impaired driving on parole


An Ontario woman convicted of killing a cyclist while driving drunk has again been charged with impaired driving after multiple 911 calls about a vehicle travelling erratically on Highway 400 Sunday.



toronto.ctvnews.ca





In Edmonton, 5 bars/restaurants have re-closed after having positive tests come up for staff/customers.








At least 5 Edmonton restaurants temporarily closed due to COVID-19 cases - Edmonton | Globalnews.ca


At least five different restaurants in the Edmonton area have voluntarily closed after confirming cases of COVID-19 at their locations.




globalnews.ca





The good news is these bars/restaurants voluntarily decided to re-close. They are acting responsibly but I question whether all the staff and customers were.


----------



## andrewf

Wrong links, I think.


----------



## Longtimeago

andrewf said:


> Wrong links, I think.


Oops, yes the first two are wrong. Google Sauble Beach or Toronto beach Ford news and you will find them. I think the point is clear though andrewf. Opening beaches has resulted in overcrowding. The conclusion from my perspective seems to be clear. If we cannot expect people to drive up and say, 'oh, too many people, I'm not going to join in with that', then we cannot open beaches.

There is no doubt that everything we open will add to new cases. The Edmonton restaurants are a good example of that. But if it only adds a few cases and they are dealt with promptly, that can be considered an acceptable risk. But some things like beaches have the obvious potential to add large numbers of cases and no real way to trace them.

We may have to either accept some things just can't be allowed to open up, like beaches or accept we are likely to end up back in runaway transmission levels.


----------



## james4beach

The provinces are in different phases of reopening. But what I'm seeing in Vancouver BC makes me nervous.

When I go into stores, it seems that only about 1/3 of people are wearing masks. I would say that the worst group are young people (under 30) as I hardly ever see them wearing masks.

I'm also seeing lots of crowds inside stores. Some stores, the large chains (like Starbucks) are good at enforcing distancing and customer limits. *Other stores are not enforcing anything*. I saw several stores that looked like they had about 10 to 20 people crammed inside, no distance between people, and NO masks.

At my own apartment building, I just saw about 10 to 15 young people entering (they said it was a birthday party). They packed themselves into the elevator (zero distance between people) and are going to spend the night drinking, crammed into a small space together. If anyone there has COVID, the rest of them will have it tomorrow.

Contact tracing cannot keep up with this. Based on a sample of what I saw today, there is way too much of this kind of thing happening. It will get out of hand.

I really think the young adults will be spreading this. I think the province should shut down all bars and night clubs, and prohibit any gatherings of more than X people even in private residences.

Young people have to make some sacrifices. They will have to go a few months without partying. _And they won't do this on their own ... we need to enforce this by law._


----------



## Money172375

james4beach said:


> The provinces are in different phases of reopening. But what I'm seeing in Vancouver BC makes me nervous.
> 
> When I go into stores, it seems that only about 1/3 of people are wearing masks. I would say that the worst group are young people (under 30) as I hardly ever see them wearing masks.
> 
> I'm also seeing lots of crowds inside stores. Some stores, the large chains (like Starbucks) are good at enforcing distancing and customer limits. *Other stores are not enforcing anything*. I saw several stores that looked like they had about 10 to 20 people crammed inside, no distance between people, and NO masks.
> 
> At my own apartment building, I just saw about 10 to 15 young people entering (they said it was a birthday party). They packed themselves into the elevator (zero distance between people) and are going to spend the night drinking, crammed into a small space together. If anyone there has COVID, the rest of them will have it tomorrow.
> 
> Contact tracing cannot keep up with this. Based on a sample of what I saw today, there is way too much of this kind of thing happening. It will get out of hand.
> 
> I really think the young adults will be spreading this. I think the province should shut down all bars and night clubs, and prohibit any gatherings of more than X people even in private residences.
> 
> Young people have to make some sacrifices. They will have to go a few months without partying. _And they won't do this on their own ... we need to enforce this by law._


it’s this exact behaviour that causes multiple waves. I was reading about the Spanish and it was the fatigue and Reluctance to follow rules that caused multiple waves.

the mayors of the greater Toronto Area are meeting today to discuss mandatory mask wearing in public places.


----------



## sags

During the Spanish Flu they didn't have instant internet, radio or television access to the latest news.

They also didn't have health authorities describing the situation and issuing directions and warnings.

I am thinking the people didn't see anyone sick for awhile and thought it had all blown over. They went on with their lives and the virus kept coming back in waves.

We have the communications today and should be able to spare ourselves from the worst, but some people are determined to carry on regardless.

With the talk of a possible future vaccine, the anti-vaxxers are starting up again. Instant communication allows them to thrive as well.


----------



## sags

I think the scientists screwed up when they named the virus COVID 19. That sounds way too benign. It sounds like a bluetooth speaker or something.

Black Plague, Bubonic Plague, Black Death,.........sound a lot more ominous and maybe that was a good thing.

I know that plagues are caused by bacteria rather than viruses, but still..........the effects are about the same.

They also called this an outbreak, then an epidemic, and now a pandemic. They should have called it the Cannibal Flu because it eats the lungs.

Maybe the thought of having their lungs eaten would have caused younger adults to take it more seriously than they are.

Trump calls this the Kung Flu. He was only out by one letter of the alphabet. He should have called it the Lung Flu.


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> it’s this exact behaviour that causes multiple waves. I was reading about the Spanish and it was the fatigue and Reluctance to follow rules that caused multiple waves.


Mandatory mask usage is a good idea. It's really not hard... I've now been wearing masks regularly for a few months. A few days ago I realized it has started to become second nature. I forgot I was wearing one.

But the kids have got to stop with all this partying. I'm seeing them behaving as "normal" but we're in the middle of a pandemic.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Mandatory mask usage is a good idea. It's really not hard... I've now been wearing masks regularly for a few months. A few days ago I realized it has started to become second nature. I forgot I was wearing one.
> 
> But the kids have got to stop with all this partying. I'm seeing them behaving as "normal" but we're in the middle of a pandemic.


From what I see, it's mostly adults, not kids.

The kids are stuck at home, and suffering quite significantly from social isolation. Social interaction is critical for a childs development.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> From what I see, it's mostly adults, not kids.
> 
> The kids are stuck at home, and suffering quite significantly from social isolation. Social interaction is critical for a childs development.


Sorry, I said kids but I meant teens/young adults. And it shows up in the stats: the most rapid growth of infections are in the 20-40 age group.


----------



## nathan79

I admit I don't wear a mask and don't know anybody who does. Even during the peak of infections, I only observed perhaps 10% of people wearing masks in public. You have to keep in mind that we never had a high number of COVID-19 cases here in BC. That could absolutely change, and I would expect there to be increased mask wearing if it does.


----------



## andrewf

nathan79 said:


> I admit I don't wear a mask and don't know anybody who does. Even during the peak of infections, I only observed perhaps 10% of people wearing masks in public. You have to keep in mind that we never had a high number of COVID-19 cases here in BC. That could absolutely change, and I would expect there to be increased mask wearing if it does.


Even normally speaking (pre-COVID), I would see people, usually asian, wearing masks in public. Maybe in rural BC you don't see it, but in Vancouver I doubt it.

I wasn't wearing a mask for a few weeks until I got a cloth one that a family member made. I'd say currently only 30% are wearing. At peak it was 50%. I saw one couple walking around in a full respirator (plastic face shield) like you would use for harmful chemicals like pesticides.


----------



## james4beach

Yesterday, I bought a plastic face shield at a local store for $10. These are only available because nobody is worried right now.

As soon as the case count spikes up again, supplies will again be impossible to find. I highly recommend getting your hands on some masks right now. Worst case scenario, you can still use them in cold & flu season, the way Asians have always been doing.


----------



## andrewf

I'm not talking the face masks meant for stopping droplets.






3M Full Facepiece Reusable Respirator, 6800, Medium: Amazon.ca: Industrial & Scientific


3M Full Facepiece Reusable Respirator, 6800, Medium: Amazon.ca: Industrial & Scientific



www.amazon.ca


----------



## Eder

I'm pretty sure if cases increase we will hear it is because of not wearing masks...nothing to do with recent protests or pride parades.


----------



## Money172375

If this graphic making the rounds on the Internet is even close to being factual, then I’m sold.

2nd wave is hitting Europe. Slovenia which was one of, if not the first, country to declare an end to the first wave, has just lowered allowed group sizes from 500 to 50. 

and the WHO just said the worst is yet to come, globally.


----------



## Money172375

Money172375 said:


> If this graphic making the rounds on the Internet is even close to being factual, then I’m sold.
> 
> 2nd wave is hitting Europe. Slovenia which was one of, if not the first, country to declare an end to the first wave, has just lowered allowed group sizes from 500 to 50.
> 
> and the WHO just said the worst is yet to come, globally.
> 
> if I’m popping into a store or restaurant for 2 mins (pickin up take out, or some batteries at the dollar store) I don’t wear a mask....if I’m going to spend longer (grocery, Home Depot), then I mask up.
> 
> View attachment 20283


----------



## Longtimeago

Money172375 said:


> If this graphic making the rounds on the Internet is even close to being factual, then I’m sold.
> 
> 2nd wave is hitting Europe. Slovenia which was one of, if not the first, country to declare an end to the first wave, has just lowered allowed group sizes from 500 to 50.
> 
> and the WHO just said the worst is yet to come, globally.
> 
> View attachment 20283


Now that is something even the dumbest can understand. What's more, it makes it quite clear that the purpose of the mask is to protect others, not yourself.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> If this graphic making the rounds on the Internet is even close to being factual, then I’m sold.
> 
> 2nd wave is hitting Europe. Slovenia which was one of, if not the first, country to declare an end to the first wave, has just lowered allowed group sizes from 500 to 50.
> 
> and the WHO just said the worst is yet to come, globally.
> 
> View attachment 20283


It's conceptually correct, but the numbers are bogus.
1. I don't know of any research that supports them.
2. The math doesn't add up, and they skip the case of no masks at all? Is that 100%?
Anyway if Recipient mask blocks 30%, and Spreader mask blocks 95%, the combined efficiency is somewhere around 96.5% (or 70% * 5% = 3.5%)
Unless they're arguing some minimum dose exposure limit, which again I'm not sure if that's scientifically valid.

I LOVE that they made it visual, and conceptually simple. 
I hate that it is likely factually made up @[email protected]#[email protected]


----------



## andrewf

There does seem to be evidence that the dose of virus (viral load) makes a big difference.


----------



## Prairie Guy

sags said:


> I think the scientists screwed up when they named the virus COVID 19. That sounds way too benign. It sounds like a bluetooth speaker or something.
> 
> Black Plague, Bubonic Plague, Black Death,.........sound a lot more ominous and maybe that was a good thing.
> 
> I know that plagues are caused by bacteria rather than viruses, but still..........the effects are about the same.


No. The effects and death rate are far closed to the same as the flu rather than the Black Death or Bubonic plague. Facts matter...maybe not to you but they do to others.



> Maybe the thought of having their lungs eaten would have caused younger adults to take it more seriously than they are.


There are a few isolated cases of lung damage compared to millions/10's of millions of asymptomatic cases.

But if we're lucky the 2nd wave will take out many of the anarchists, rioters, and looters that have taken over US cities.


----------



## Plugging Along

Longtimeago said:


> Now that is something even the dumbest can understand. What's more, it makes it quite clear that the purpose of the mask is to protect others, not yourself.


It makes it clear that the respectful thing is for everyone to wear a mask. Some people are selfish and will not wear a mask because they think they don't have it and because it doesn't protect themselves, then there is nothing in it for them. However, the graphic shows there is SOME benefit to the wearer too, not NO benefit. In the case a carrier doesn't wear one, there is protection to the wearer.


----------



## Plugging Along

Money172375 said:


> If this graphic making the rounds on the Internet is even close to being factual, then I’m sold.
> 
> 2nd wave is hitting Europe. Slovenia which was one of, if not the first, country to declare an end to the first wave, has just lowered allowed group sizes from 500 to 50.
> 
> and the WHO just said the worst is yet to come, globally.
> 
> View attachment 20283


I have seen this graphic. It doesn't matter if the numbers are even that close. I have seen the graphic without numbers. 

Both people wearing masks - lowest risk
Carrier wearing masks - higher risk than above
Non Carrier wearing mask - higher risk than above
No one wearing masks - highest risk

Simple, everyone wear mask.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> I have seen this graphic. It doesn't matter if the numbers are even that close. I have seen the graphic without numbers.


I disagree. Once they start spreading false information, or even worse, knowingly lie, they lose credibility and it undermines their authority.


----------



## Eder

Skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin.”
“Never stop questioning.” 

I like both quotes. Seems applicable more today than ever.

The editor of Europe’s top medical journal, the Lancet, speculated half of their published research was likely false. 

Ten years ago, Stanford epidemiologist tested over 400 research published claims and only one could be replicated and validated. 

But lets put our faith in someone's meme right?


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> I disagree. Once they start spreading false information, or even worse, knowingly lie, they lose credibility and it undermines their authority.


I don't see spreading a lie with out the numbers. It is a fact, everyone wearing masks lowers the risk. No one wearing masks increases the risks. I don't need to know the exact numbers, as this seems to be just common sense. Countries that had introduced mask wearing early on, or where it is a part of the culture seem to be reducing the speed of spread better. I don't have the numbers, but just because there isn't a triple blind study that has been testing under all assumptions, doesn't make it false. 

Fact: Masks reduce spread. Period


----------



## sags

Comparing the fatality rate of COVID to the flu is ridiculous. This virus far more contagious and deadly.

Many people died in past plagues, but they didn't have communication to know it was coming or what to do, and they had no healthcare or medicines.

Without ventilators and drugs, a lot more people would be dying from COVID today.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> I don't see spreading a lie with out the numbers. It is a fact, everyone wearing masks lowers the risk. No one wearing masks increases the risks. I don't need to know the exact numbers, as this seems to be just common sense. Countries that had introduced mask wearing early on, or where it is a part of the culture seem to be reducing the speed of spread better. I don't have the numbers, but just because there isn't a triple blind study that has been testing under all assumptions, doesn't make it false.
> 
> Fact: Masks reduce spread. Period


I agree, we don't need numbers, and masks work.

My issue simply is simply with the fact that they're apparently choosing to put false information out.
Just like when Dr Tam didn't recommend wearing masks a few months ago.

Lying demonstrates a lack of integrity and rightfully destroys credibility.


----------



## Eder

The science is settled then...


----------



## cainvest

In MB we're well into our Phase 3 stage and it's been 7 days now without a new case.
Have actually gone to a few restaurants now that many have opened up tables inside.
A see a small percentage of people wearing masks still and overall _most_ are still being good about the 2m spacing.


----------



## Money172375

I’ve been reading that the Western provinces are seeking spikes and some provinces have higher rates of current infections per capita than Ontario.

What’s the reality on the ground? Our region in Ontario is also seeing a slow but noticeable rise in the last 2 weeks.


----------



## Longtimeago

Overall, cases are rising across Canada. You cannot re-open for business and not expect to see a rise in cases. The question is can you manage the new cases with tracing and testing to MINIMIZE and contain new cases. You cannot expect ZERO new cases.

So what we have to be looking for is a rise in cases that does not continue to rise but rather raises the floor level somewhat and then stays there. That will mean we are managing it. If it does not level out but instead continues to rise, then we must go back to shutting down again. At what number in a given area that step back has to be taken is not a number they are going to tell us about but I expect they have a number in mind. Don't forget, each individual Public Health Officer can shut things down in their individual area.


----------



## Longtimeago

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-aaa-hockey-teams-secretly-play-in-manitoba-1.5666146



There goes the neighbourhood. Five teams of players and their parents just had to attend a hockey tournament.

Stupid, stupid, stupid. Some people really have no clue as to what their priorities should be.


----------



## Longtimeago

Some people are getting very aggressive in their 'stay out of our province' behaviour.








Alberta man calls out B.C. premier after vehicle vandalized in Kamloops


An Alberta man whose vehicle was vandalized in B.C. suggests comments from the premier are sparking backlash.



bc.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Eder

That smashed window did look more like a break in attempt than vandalism though. And yes Horgan is one of the few idiots in BC.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> That smashed window did look more like a break in attempt than vandalism though. And yes Horgan is one of the few idiots in BC.


Apparently it is an ongoing thing in BC Eder.




__





alberta car vandalized bc - Google Search






www.google.com


----------



## nathan79

Animosity between BC and Alberta is an ongoing thing for many years... COVID just gave certain people a license (if only in their minds) to act on those feelings.


----------



## Eder

Doing silly stuff like Alberta & BC only allowing residents into their provincial parks seem to fan the idiot flames as well. At any rate I returned to BC a couple weeks ago with the motor home...no issues yet.


----------



## Money172375

Conflicting stories about cases in Ontario.

one says no surge since stage 3 re-openings. Next one says, we set a records nigh for the month of August.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid19-ontario-coronavirus-cases-stage-3-reopening-1.5701925






https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-august-29-update-1.5704907


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Conflicting stories about cases in Ontario.
> 
> one says no surge since stage 3 re-openings. Next one says, we set a records nigh for the month of August.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid19-ontario-coronavirus-cases-stage-3-reopening-1.5701925
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-august-29-update-1.5704907


Crappy headline in the second article.
The chart in the first one shows the actual data, we're pretty much flatlined, which is great.

*Ontario records another 148 COVID-19 cases, its highest daily case count since July*
That means that the new cases reported yesterday, are the highest daily case numbers reported for August. We've been at around 100/day all month, I want to see what the early October numbers are, we'll see what happens at schooles.


----------



## Eder

Haha, I like this guys style









City of Edmonton facing $565-million lawsuit over COVID-19 mandatory mask bylaw


An Edmonton man is suing the City of Edmonton for $565 million, citing nuisance and a public health hazard created by the temporary mandatory mask bylaw.




edmontonjournal.com


----------



## james4beach

Eder said:


> Haha, I like this guys style


You approve of someone bringing nuisance lawsuits and wasting the money of hard-working taxpayers?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> You approve of someone bringing nuisance lawsuits and wasting the money of hard-working taxpayers?


The city is giving out disposable products, that are being thrown all over creating a health hazard.
Here our needle exchange gets back 50% of the millions of needles they give out.

They're using city money to distribute medical products, which are then being carelessly thrown out, causing a health hazard. Maybe if they weren't giving away all this "free" stuff (paid for by taxpayers), they wouldn't be throwing it all over the place creating a health hazard.


No I don't support the lawsuit, but I don't support the cities spending millions giving away medical supplies, without a plan on how to keep them from turning into litter.


----------



## Longtimeago

The numbers continue to rise.








Ontario records highest number of daily COVID-19 cases since July


Ontario reported 169 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, marking the highest daily case count since the end of July.



toronto.ctvnews.ca





Meanwhile, anti-maskers held a party at Toronto's Cherry Beach last night. 

If I were a health care worker risking my health to treat people, when I saw these people partying, I would be asking myself, 'do I want to treat these people when they come into the hospital with Covid?' My answer quite frankly would be NO. I doubt they are going to be saying, 'oh well, I ignored the rules and now I will deal with the outcome on my own.' They will be first in line for treatment if they get the virus.


----------



## Longtimeago

Eder said:


> Haha, I like this guys style
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> City of Edmonton facing $565-million lawsuit over COVID-19 mandatory mask bylaw
> 
> 
> An Edmonton man is suing the City of Edmonton for $565 million, citing nuisance and a public health hazard created by the temporary mandatory mask bylaw.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edmontonjournal.com


That guy doesn't have 'style' in any way I can see Eder. Nor does pointing out one problem (littering of used masks) negate the benefit of having to wear masks. They are two separate subjects or is that too difficult to understand?


----------



## Beaver101

Longtimeago said:


> The numbers continue to rise.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario records highest number of daily COVID-19 cases since July
> 
> 
> Ontario reported 169 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, marking the highest daily case count since the end of July.
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Meanwhile, anti-maskers held a party at Toronto's Cherry Beach last night.
> 
> If I were a health care worker risking my health to treat people, when I saw these people partying, I would be asking myself, 'do I want to treat these people when they come into the hospital with Covid?' My answer quite frankly would be NO. I doubt they are going to be saying, 'oh well, I ignored the rules and now I will deal with the outcome on my own.' They will be first in line for treatment if they get the virus.


 ... you do realize there's a seperate health unit (physical & staff) to treat those with Covid, away from the general hospital population. 

I think the problem is the "enforcement" isn't being done or not done enough.

Take the Brampton 200 house(s)-party example ... what's the resulting/final fine? The JOP still deciding? when the bylaw specifically says upto $100K ... how about $50K for the organizer(s). And $10K x 13 other participants plus another $100K for the house-owners ... these guys can get back their $$$ when they land in the Covid-ward. So far, it has been lip-service.


----------



## Beaver101

Good luck to the idiot mentioned in the link in post 462.


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> The city is giving out disposable products, that are being thrown all over creating a health hazard.
> Here our needle exchange gets back 50% of the millions of needles they give out.
> 
> They're using city money to distribute medical products, which are then being carelessly thrown out, causing a health hazard. Maybe if they weren't giving away all this "free" stuff (paid for by taxpayers), they wouldn't be throwing it all over the place creating a health hazard.
> 
> 
> No I don't support the lawsuit, but I don't support the cities spending millions giving away medical supplies, without a plan on how to keep them from turning into litter.


The link say that Edmonton gave it the disposable masks, they did the by law just like in my city. The masks were given by the province and masks were not mandated by the province. The person isn’t he pink is suing the city for the effects of the by law of people littering. Not the distribution of the mask (which was done through private companies and direct use, so distribution costs was low). 

The person in the article is sueing the city for something they can no directly control over, and there has been no proof of damages. Also, he should consider than many stores are giving away disposable masks for those that forget. Is he going to sue each individual store? How About the people that actually don’t dispose of their masks? I really hope he gets stuck with all the legal costs Out of his own pocket.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> The link say that Edmonton gave it the disposable masks, they did the by law just like in my city. The masks were given by the province and masks were not mandated by the province. The person isn’t he pink is suing the city for the effects of the by law of people littering. Not the distribution of the mask (which was done through private companies and direct use, so distribution costs was low).
> 
> The person in the article is sueing the city for something they can no directly control over, and there has been no proof of damages. Also, he should consider than many stores are giving away disposable masks for those that forget. Is he going to sue each individual store? How About the people that actually don’t dispose of their masks? I really hope he gets stuck with all the legal costs Out of his own pocket.


The mandating the use of items they ought to know will likely be disposed of in an unsafe manner, and not taking reasonable means to prevent this from happening. I agree it's a waste of money.

However it is basic due diligence that they should consider the obvious and known problems stemming from the laws they pass, and they have a responsibility to address or at least consider the implications of the law.
Now the question before the courts is if they did enough or not.


----------



## Longtimeago

MrMatt said:


> The mandating the use of items they ought to know will likely be disposed of in an unsafe manner, and not taking reasonable means to prevent this from happening. I agree it's a waste of money.
> 
> However it is basic due diligence that they should consider the obvious and known problems stemming from the laws they pass, and they have a responsibility to address or at least consider the implications of the law.
> Now the question before the courts is if they did enough or not.


I would think that having trash disposal bins on public streets is enough and we've always had those. Why not sue Nestle's for selling bottled water. They contribute far more to public landfill sites and a far more environmentally unfriendly product than disposable masks are.

The idiot suing is just trying to make a point about mask wearing, I doubt he gives a fig for littering.


----------



## Beaver101

^


> ... The idiot suing is just trying to make a point about mask wearing, *I doubt he gives a fig for littering. *


 ... 

"Look at me, the BIG FIG IDIOT!"


----------



## MrMatt

Longtimeago said:


> I would think that having trash disposal bins on public streets is enough and we've always had those. Why not sue Nestle's for selling bottled water. They contribute far more to public landfill sites and a far more environmentally unfriendly product than disposable masks are.
> 
> The idiot suing is just trying to make a point about mask wearing, I doubt he gives a fig for littering.


It's a dumb lawsuit, and should be discharged promptly, and I hope it is.
However I do think it's good that the politicians know they will be held accountable.


----------



## Plugging Along

MrMatt said:


> The mandating the use of items they ought to know will likely be disposed of in an unsafe manner, and not taking reasonable means to prevent this from happening. I agree it's a waste of money.
> 
> However it is basic due diligence that they should consider the obvious and known problems stemming from the laws they pass, and they have a responsibility to address or at least consider the implications of the law.
> Now the question before the courts is if they did enough or not.


there are are laws against littering. how about people act responsible and throw out their garbage. The lawsuit is ridiculous. 

What would one expect is due diligenc for littering. how about public garbage cans available... wait they have those. Does Tim Hortons provide extra disposal for their cups? Perhaps there should be a fee for disposable masks to buy extra garbage cans, Wait, someone will complain about the fee. 

This lawsuit is some whiney person who doesn’t want to wear a mask.


----------



## MrMatt

Plugging Along said:


> there are are laws against littering. how about people act responsible and throw out their garbage. The lawsuit is ridiculous.
> 
> What would one expect is due diligenc for littering. how about public garbage cans available... wait they have those. Does Tim Hortons provide extra disposal for their cups? Perhaps there should be a fee for disposable masks to buy extra garbage cans, Wait, someone will complain about the fee.
> 
> This lawsuit is some whiney person who doesn’t want to wear a mask.


That's why I think it should be thrown out quickly.

There are laws against racial discrimination, so why is BLM protesting?


----------



## Money172375

Has any province officially gone back a “stage”? Ontario cases are highest since June. Calls are starting to demand a return to stage 2 for Ottawa, Toronto and Peel.


----------



## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> The mandating the use of items they ought to know will likely be disposed of in an unsafe manner, and not taking reasonable means to prevent this from happening ...
> Now the question before the courts is if they did enough or not.


So what's a reasonable means of preventing the mask littering?
Making trash bins available? Having scheduled garbage pickup? HIring more by-law enforcement officers to write up tickets for those they catch littering? Having special mask cleanup sweeps, starting in the complainant's neigbourhood?




MrMatt said:


> It's a dumb lawsuit, and should be discharged promptly, and I hope it is.
> However I do think it's good that the politicians know they will be held accountable.


Where it's a dumb lawsuit that's discharged promptly - won't politicians see the discharge as confirming the rationale is unreasonable and from a crack pot?
I don't see where the lawsuit is of any use on the accountability front.


Cheers


----------



## Eder

Money172375 said:


> Has any province officially gone back a “stage”? Ontario cases are highest since June. Calls are starting to demand a return to stage 2 for Ottawa, Toronto and Peel.



More cases can be caused by more testing & better follow up...hospitalizations & deaths are more meaningful according to Dr Henry.






Datasets - Ontario Data Catalogue







covid-19.ontario.ca





Death rate near zero...hospitalized & icu approaching zero according to the graphs...good job Ontario,keep it up!

Don't forget the media has been sensationalizing and politicizing Covid...best use the government website rather than click bait for info.


----------



## james4beach

Eder said:


> Don't forget the media has been sensationalizing


I don't think media has any agenda other than engaging people and making money. Fear-inducing stories grab eyeballs and yes, just about all media hypes up really scary things.

I've been making a point of consuming limited amounts of media relating to COVID ever since it all broke. It's just not healthy to watch too much TV coverage, and I hate hearing the same stories repeatedly. Here's one example: the extreme fear about kids going back to school.

Today I ran into an Australian and talked with them a while. She said that back home, kids have gone back to school and have been there for months! I think they started in early May, so it's now over 4 months with kids back at school.

And Australia's COVID cases are still very low. Much lower than Canada's. They do have certain advantages (it's an isolated island and they have stricter travel restrictions than in Canada) but still I think it's very encouraging.

So from this, I don't think there's anything too frightening about kids going back to school. However I do wish Canada had some stricter controls like Australia does, because it appears to be helping their overall situation.

Notably, Australia restricts travel between states. I think there's too much casual inter-provincial travel in Canada. People should have good reasons for doing it: visiting family, essential business, that kind of thing. I trust our politicians to find the right balance but I hope they look carefully at Australia and New Zealand, since these cultures are very similar to ours, and are doing much better with COVID than we are.


----------



## MK7GTI

james4beach said:


> I don't think media has any agenda other than engaging people and making money. Fear-inducing stories grab eyeballs and yes, just about all media hypes up really scary things.
> 
> I've been making a point of consuming limited amounts of media relating to COVID ever since it all broke. It's just not healthy to watch too much TV coverage, and I hate hearing the same stories repeatedly. Here's one example: the extreme fear about kids going back to school.
> 
> Today I ran into an Australian and talked with them a while. She said that back home, kids have gone back to school and have been there for months! I think they started in early May, so it's now over 4 months with kids back at school.
> 
> And Australia's COVID cases are still very low. Much lower than Canada's. They do have certain advantages (it's an isolated island and they have stricter travel restrictions than in Canada) but still I think it's very encouraging.
> 
> So from this, I don't think there's anything too frightening about kids going back to school. However I do wish Canada had some stricter controls like Australia does, because it appears to be helping their overall situation.
> 
> Notably, Australia restricts travel between states. I think there's too much casual inter-provincial travel in Canada. People should have good reasons for doing it: visiting family, essential business, that kind of thing. I trust our politicians to find the right balance but I hope they look carefully at Australia and New Zealand, since these cultures are very similar to ours, and are doing much better with COVID than we are.


NWT is very similar to Austraila in a sense that the NWT government has kept the border closed since late March. If you leave the territory you must isolate for 14 days upon returning. We have had 5 cases total with the last one being cleared in late April. However, within the last couple weeks they are just now discussing if they should make masks mandatory everywhere. Currently they are only mandatory in government buildings, public transit, and Walmart. Seems to be large push back on the masks due to what I mentioned above, no cases in months and closed border. Most people in Yellowknife don't wear masks or social distance really. The only people I see wearing masks are taxi drivers or people aged 50+ for obvious reasons. 

On the kids going back to school issue, kids weren't given the option to stay home. They were going back without question and the schools will not close. My wife is an EA and has mentioned several times about the amount of staff that have been sent home due to a cold or cough. They get the covid test and then wait for up to 14 days for the results before returning to work. Unfortunately, all tests get sent south for processing. Perhaps it's not a reasonable comparison but I was shocked to hear school boards in the GTA were allowing parents to have the option of sending their kids back to school. My opinion but they are doing more harm by keeping them home then sending them to school. 

Anyways, the NWT has done well so far with their actions on preventing a major outbreak in Yellowknife specially. However, I think this will come at a major cost to the local businesses outside of 2 in particular. Tourism is huge here. Not just in the summer but winter also.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Eder said:


> More cases can be caused by more testing & better follow up...hospitalizations & deaths are more meaningful according to Dr Henry.


I was saying the same thing about a week or so ago and quite a few posters wanted to rip me a new one. Infections are not the problem, they are a symptom of the problem.

Even with the increase in infections, in Ontario, I think less then 2% of active cases are in the hospital right now. Not sure that constitutes a need for stronger measures but as always, we need to see what the future brings.

Right now, it appears to me that we are getting more infections but they are much less dangerous (lower initial dose infections) infections. That would be a combination of younger people being infected but more importantly the use of mask and the awareness we have about the risks of this virus. Just being aware of it should reduce the dose of infection one should get, if they are unlucky enough to get infected at all.


----------



## Beaver101

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-covid19-canada-latest-updates-190048955.html



> *September 17
> Ontario lowers gathering limits for Toronto, Ottawa and Peel*
> 
> The Ontario government has announced changes to gathering limits in Toronto, Peel and Ottawa that come with significant fines for both hosts and attendees.
> 
> *Beginning on Sept. 18, unmonitored, indoor gatherings are limited to 10 people, *down from the previous 50, and outdoor events are capped at 25 people, opposed to the previous 100 person limit.
> 
> *Hosts of these events will face a minimum fine of $10,000* and attendees will see fines of $750.
> 
> This does not extend to organized events at staffed businesses like banquet halls, gyms, restaurants, movie theatres or convention centres.
> 
> “This is frustrating for all Ontarians when you have these people who just recklessly ignore the regulations and guidelines that the chief medicals officers put out there,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said at a press conference on Thursday. *“They must be a few fries short of a Happy Meal these people because I don’t get it...they just blatantly ignore it.”*
> 
> Dr. David Williams, Ontario's chief medical officer of health, said although these new rules only apply to three regions, he’s not ruling out the possibility of extending these limits to other areas of the province.
> 
> ...


 .. hope Ford put the $$$ where his mouth is on these "short fries."


----------



## Money172375

Alberta to end asymptomatic testing....



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/deena-hinshaw-alberta-covid-19-coronavirus-1.5728099


----------



## Eder

Money172375 said:


> Alberta to end asymptomatic testing....
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/deena-hinshaw-alberta-covid-19-coronavirus-1.5728099



Since May 29, when the broad asymptomatic testing was introduced, the province completed about 233,000 such tests, with only 0.07 per cent returning positive — about 163 cases. Having said that my test is on Thursday...doh.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Doug Ford, when referring to the people who did not follow Covid-19 safety regulations and had parties and backyard get togethers:

"they must be a few fries short of a happy meal".

I guess that is the politically correct way of putting it. lol


----------



## Eder

Alberta reported 107 new cases of the coronavirus Thursday from about 11,300 tests, a 0.9 per cent positive rate.

It’s the second-fewest new cases announced in Alberta in more than three weeks, despite a higher-than-average number of tests processed.

This virus is getting the crap kicked out of it. A whole 44 people in hospital only 7 in ICU.


----------



## james4beach

Eder said:


> Alberta reported 107 new cases of the coronavirus Thursday from about 11,300 tests, a 0.9 per cent positive rate.
> 
> It’s the second-fewest new cases announced in Alberta in more than three weeks, despite a higher-than-average number of tests processed.
> 
> This virus is getting the crap kicked out of it. A whole 44 people in hospital only 7 in ICU.


Canada wide, the situation is getting 'out of control' and public health authorities say we might be on the brink of losing control of the situation. I believe this is due to rapid spread in BC, ON, QC.

Everyone must remain vigilant and scale back socializing, reduce contact. This is trending in the wrong direction and we're not even into flu season yet.

Additionally, Conservative leader Erin O'Toole has tested positive and is now in isolation. So has the Bloc leader.


----------



## andrewf

So, probably fair to say that the government won't fall on the Throne Speech.


----------



## Money172375

It sure felt like the general public thought we had kicked this in Ontario a few weeks ago. The numbers fell below 100 new cases a day and people let their guard down. We’re now at over 400 new cases a day. Some regions now have tighter restrictions with more sure to follow. I’m hoping the cooler weather means Less socializing.

thanksgiving And Halloween around the corner.....more opportunities to mingle.
our thanksgiving host has decided to hold thanksgiving Outdoors. Avg temp is around 12 degrees........you know the group will want to head indoors quickly. I’d rather cancel it.


----------



## Money172375

Ontario going back to province wide lockdown for 28 days. Indoor/outdoor dining closed. Gyms closed. Hair salons closed. Retail capacity restrictions.


----------



## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Ontario going back to province wide lockdown for 28 days. Indoor/outdoor dining closed. Gyms closed. Hair salons closed. Retail capacity restrictions.


Annoying, but it was obvious, people are socializing, and they'll no doubt spread it over easter like they did over Christmas


----------



## OptsyEagle

Does anyone know if any of the provinces show the age of people being admitted to the hospital and/or ICU?


----------



## andrewf

Can't find anything, but I saw quote recently that half the people in ICU are under the age of 59.


----------



## OptsyEagle

andrewf said:


> Can't find anything, but I saw quote recently that half the people in ICU are under the age of 59.


Yes. I am getting a lot of quotes and comments but not much hard data. Comments are things that tend to get regurgitated by our media, so the fact that it is happening a lot tells me very little.

The only thing real data that tends to shed some light, that what they are saying is probably true, is the fact that we have vaccinated a reasonable number of our very elderly and we seem to be getting as many or more people in the ICU...and I don't think any of them have been vaccinated.

My rough calculations is that the new variants are adjusting the covid infection outcome risk, that each of us faces, almost equivalent to us being about 10 years older. The info is rough because even the data on how infectious and how violent these new variants are, is a little anecdotal as well. A little experimental data but not enough to form a proper opinion.

That said, age 59, with the current virus, is probably about how someone age 69 responded to an infection from the previous virus. Every time I turn around that is about what I am seeing.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Does anyone know if any of the provinces show the age of people being admitted to the hospital and/or ICU?


Just Canada wide ... any specific province you are looking at?


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Just Canada wide ... any specific province you are looking at?


I don't even care about the country to be honest, so if you have it Canada wide I will take it.


----------



## cainvest

Near the bottom of this page Epidemiological summary of COVID-19 cases in Canada - Canada.ca

If you check the provincial reporting links at the bottom of that page there might be more info. I know BC has detailed reports, not sure about other provinces.


----------



## Spudd

OptsyEagle said:


> I don't even care about the country to be honest, so if you have it Canada wide I will take it.


Here it is for Ontario:








Ontario COVID-19 Data Tool | Public Health Ontario


Explore confirmed COVID-19 data in Ontario by: case trends over time including hospitalizations and deaths, variants of concern, age and sex, public health unit, reproduction number, acquisition, outbreaks, laboratory testing and vaccines.




www.publichealthontario.ca


----------



## OptsyEagle

Thanks for that.


----------



## Numbersman61

Here is in the information regarding Alberta statistics








COVID-19 info for Albertans


Alberta is learning to live with COVID-19 while protecting the health care system and increasing vaccination rates.




www.alberta.ca


----------



## andrewf

Spudd said:


> Here it is for Ontario:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario COVID-19 Data Tool | Public Health Ontario
> 
> 
> Explore confirmed COVID-19 data in Ontario by: case trends over time including hospitalizations and deaths, variants of concern, age and sex, public health unit, reproduction number, acquisition, outbreaks, laboratory testing and vaccines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.publichealthontario.ca


Looks like 20% of hospitalizations are among under 50 age group.


----------



## like_to_retire

andrewf said:


> Looks like 20% of hospitalizations are among under 50 age group.


Well, the data seems to show that the most cases are centered around the ages 20-29, but the most hospitalizations and deaths are still (of course, even though lower in numbers) in the 70-90 age group.

So, does this mean that the completed vaccinations of the older group is working and that they aren't contracting the virus as readily as the younger group who are still waiting to be vaccinated?










ltr


----------



## OptsyEagle

10% of hospitalizations are age 40 to 49.

I am curious to see what it is like a month from now. That type of thing.


----------



## OptsyEagle

like_to_retire said:


> Well, the data seems to show that the most cases are centered around the ages 20-29, but the most hospitalizations and deaths are still (of course, even though lower in numbers) in the 70-90 age group.
> 
> So, does this mean that the completed vaccinations of the older group is working and that they aren't contracting the virus as readily as the younger group who are still waiting to be vaccinated?


I think the younger groups were always producing the larger number of infections and of course the older groups were paying the price for it. I am just wondering if part of that bill is starting to be directed towards those younger ages, with this new hungrier virus that we have spreading these days. 

Unfortuneately, by the time I find out it will probably be too late, but I have time to watch it. Not much else I can do. In any case, it does look like vaccination is a good idea.


----------



## sags

153 ICU docs signed a letter telling Doug Ford his "emergency braking" isn't going to be enough.

Schools and workplaces are closing due to infections. ICUs and paramedics are coming under pressure.

It is already past the time to man up and lock down the Province to slow down the spread.


----------



## sags

The data is all over the place and depends entirely on the quality of reporting.

The media is starting to focus on the right area, which is what the doctors dealing with the pandemic in ICUs and emergency rooms are saying.

_Meanwhile, a group of 153 ICU physicians issued an open letter to the government Thursday urging stricter public health measures.

The letter, which came before the province's announcement, *warns that the doctors are seeing younger patients — including parents of school-aged children — and entire families sickened by the more contagious coronavirus variants of concern.*

"Even if we had unlimited ICU capacity, allowing these [variants of concern] to spread exponentially is unethical," the letter says.

*"As ICU doctors, we are the last line of defense, and we are ringing the alarm bell. Please hear it."*

Dr. Michael Warner, medical director of critical care at Michael Garron Hospital in Toronto, said on Twitter that it took eight hours for the province to come up with a plan that *"will not protect people properly.

"It took [six] hours to get 153 ICU doctors to sign a letter explaining why this won't work," he wrote Thursday.*_


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> 10% of hospitalizations are age 40 to 49.
> 
> I am curious to see what it is like a month from now. That type of thing.


Not sure what you're after ... age group as an overall percentage of all ages in hospital or percentage of an age group in hospital?


----------



## AMABILE

what's happening at the Cortellucci Vaughan Hospital that was 
recently opened to only take covid patients ? 
Is it full , how many patients etc


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The data is all over the place and depends entirely on the quality of reporting.


For Ontario all data is in one place.



> The media is starting to focus on the right area, which is what the doctors dealing with the pandemic in ICUs and emergency rooms are saying.


That's only one aspect. 
ICU capacity, while important, isn't and shouldn't be the only factor of interest.


----------



## andrewf

1% of diagnosed COVID cases in their 40s ended up in hospital, 2.3% or so for people in their 50s.

Beyond that, there is the problem of 'long haulers' with persistent symptoms or disability even after the infection clears.









The tragedy of long COVID - Harvard Health


Tens of thousands of people in the US have recovered from COVID-19 but continue to experience feelings of exhaustion, little energy, and mental fogginess that linger for months. Known as "post-COVI...




www.health.harvard.edu






> Tens of thousands of people in the United States have lingering illness following COVID-19. In the US, we call them post-COVID “long haulers.” Currently, the condition they are suffering from is known as “long COVID,” although other names are being proposed.
> Published studies (see here and here) and surveys conducted by patient groups indicate that 50% to 80% of patients continue to have bothersome symptoms three months after the onset of COVID-19 — even after tests no longer detect virus in their body.


I know someone in their 40s who got COVID and it knocked him on his *** for over two weeks. He said it was the sickest he's been in his life. Still not back to 100%.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Not sure what you're after ... age group as an overall percentage of all ages in hospital or percentage of an age group in hospital?


Trying to get a guage on whether younger people are indeed being admitted to hospitals/ICUs and if so, how much younger and how much larger is the percentage being admitted.

If a change like this is happening, I doubt there is any other explanation then it must be due to these new virus variants. I am trying to guage how dangerous these things actually are. They are definitely not the same as the old virus. Anecdotes, like we get in current articles about them don't really tell me the real story.

After that, I will attempt to guage if they are more dangerous for outdoor gatherings. They very well might be. I also think that masks might work a little better against the variants, but again, I am not sure. 

This is why I read these boards. Where is the danger, how high is the danger, and what can be done to reduce it. I couldn't care less about politics and people's behaviors.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> Trying to get a guage on whether younger people are indeed being admitted to hospitals/ICUs and if so, how much younger and how much larger is the percentage being admitted.
> 
> If a change like this is happening, I doubt there is any other explanation then it must be due to these new virus variants. I am trying to guage how dangerous these things actually are. They are definitely not the same as the old virus. Anecdotes, like we get in current articles about them don't really tell me the real story.
> 
> After that, I will attempt to guage if they are more dangerous for outdoor gatherings. They very well might be. I also think that masks might work a little better against the variants, but again, I am not sure.
> 
> This is why I read these boards. Where is the danger, how high is the danger, and what can be done to reduce it. I couldn't care less about politics and people's behaviors.



Well remember in the first wave, we killed off a lot of older people, so the proportion should shift.
Also now we're vaccinating older people and healthcare workers, so that should also shift the demographics.


----------



## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> Well remember in the first wave, we killed off a lot of older people, so the proportion should shift.
> Also now we're vaccinating older people and healthcare workers, so that should also shift the demographics.


No doubt. That has to be taken into account. Obviously Hospital/ICU admissions has to be gauged as a percentage of infections, all within the specific age groups...and...since we are dealing with a new virus, gaining more and more dominance, it all has to be looked at as it changes over time.

Not easy to do. Probably why we have so little data on it now. I imagine the government people have a much better handle on it, but even they would still have some important questions that only time will answer.

Easter should be interesting. Might be about the only concrete answer I am going to get for now, however, weather and temperature, where the various gatherings take place, may also be an item in the results that might need to be factored in.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Well remember in the first wave, we killed off a lot of older people, so the proportion should shift.
> Also now we're vaccinating older people and healthcare workers, so that should also shift the demographics.


It's still a little early to tell (two more weeks should confirm) but it looks like a death rate vs new cases is not rising like before which is good news. That is exactly what would should see with the vaccine given to higher risk people first.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> It's still a little early to tell (two more weeks should confirm) but it looks like a death rate vs new cases is not rising like before which is good news. That is exactly what would should see with the vaccine given to higher risk people first.


Yes. I don't expect to see a rising overall death rate, for the reasons you have stated, but I am looking to see if we are getting a rising death rate, with respect to all ages of unvaccinated people. Hopefully I don't find an alarming increase, but it does not hurt to keep my eyes open.

The Brazilian health authorities said that the P1 was 3 times as infectious compared to the original virus. When you start to figure out how a virus can become that much more infectious simply through evolutionary change you start to see how significantly more deadly it must be as well. I won't bore you with the details, because it would take a very large post and it is all unproven. I will point out that Brazil recorded 66,000 deaths. Not from the start of the pandemic. They recorded 66,000 deaths in March of 2021 alone. That gets my spidey senses up.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brazil-covid-deaths-1.5973426


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Trying to get a guage on whether younger people are indeed being admitted to hospitals/ICUs and if so, how much younger and how much larger is the percentage being admitted.


That should be pretty easy to see in the stats. 

Overall, all hospitalizations (for all adult age groups) should start to drop as the vaccine is deployed.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Yes. I don't expect to see a rising overall death rate, for the reasons you have stated, but I am looking to see if we are getting a rising death rate, with respect to all ages of unvaccinated people.


Vax vs non-vax is going to be harder to determine. In MB we've got a pretty wide age spread of currently vaccinated. Most to least, 80-89 then 50-59, 60-69, 40-49, 30-39, 70-79, 20-29. I found it very odd the 70-79 group was so low as our current age scheduled for their first shot (about two weeks out) is at 64.


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Vax vs non-vax is going to be harder to determine. In MB we've got a pretty wide age spread of currently vaccinated. Most to least, 80-89 then 50-59, 60-69, 40-49, 30-39, 70-79, 20-29. I found it very odd the 70-79 group was so low as our current age scheduled for their first shot (about two weeks out) is at 64.


I will probably just assume that if you were admitted to the hospital / ICU that you were either not vaccinated or were vaccinated less then 14 days before you were infected.

That should be a safe enough assumption until I hear different about vaccine efficacies. No doubt, if there is a problem with vac. efficacy, I will hear about that long before I conclude anything.


----------



## OptsyEagle

So this is the kind of stuff I am looking for. Not perfect and not Canadian but that P1 virus has now achieved Canadian citizenship so the data is relevant.

This article has the P1 at 1.4 to 2.2 times more trasnmissible (infectious) then the original virus. Better then 3 times, is all I can say about that, although eventually when the violence that comes from a more transmissible virus, is taken into account, a more infectious virus can eventually lead to a lower infection rate. I won't bore you with how that works, but I don't think we are there yet and trust me, we don't really want to go that route.









Covid-19: Brazil’s spiralling crisis is increasingly affecting young people


Brazil continues to break records for all the wrong reasons as it faces its deadliest episode of the pandemic yet, amid an escalating political crisis. More than 3780 covid-19 deaths were recorded on 30 March, six days after the country recorded its 300 000th life lost to the illness. At least...




www.bmj.com







> Covid-19 cases have soared throughout Brazil in the past month and have been attributed to the spread of P.1, which is estimated to be 1.4-2.2 times more transmissible than previous variants.4
> 
> Growing evidence shows that young people are not only more likely to get infected with P.1 but also to die from it, some experts have warned. The Brazilian Association of Intensive Care Medicine said that the number of 18-45 year olds requiring intensive care for covid-19 in February to March this year was three times greater than in September to November 2020,5 and coronavirus related deaths in that age group have almost doubled.


----------



## MrMatt

OptsyEagle said:


> I will probably just assume that if you were admitted to the hospital / ICU that you were either not vaccinated or were vaccinated less then 14 days before you were infected.
> 
> That should be a safe enough assumption until I hear different about vaccine efficacies. No doubt, if there is a problem with vac. efficacy, I will hear about that long before I conclude anything.


Well the anti-vaxxers are pushing the incredibly rare AZ blood clot angle. Despite it really being a non issue.

I'm sure if they had anything better, like the vaccine not working, they'd be pushing that instead.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> I will probably just assume that if you were admitted to the hospital / ICU that you were either not vaccinated or were vaccinated less then 14 days before you were infected.
> 
> That should be a safe enough assumption until I hear different about vaccine efficacies. No doubt, if there is a problem with vac. efficacy, I will hear about that long before I conclude anything.


Probably a safe assumption. 

The data I'm most interested in seeing,

Number of hospitalizations of those vaccinated (or ones that develop long haul effects)
Transmission rates between vaccinated


----------



## OptsyEagle

cainvest said:


> Probably a safe assumption.
> 
> The data I'm most interested in seeing,
> 
> Number of hospitalizations of those vaccinated (or ones that develop long haul effects)
> Transmission rates between vaccinated


The hospitalizations of vaccinated people should be fairly quick to come to light, so the fact that we have not heard about many is probably a valid observation in itself.

The transmission rates of vaccinated people will be difficult to obtain. We may just have to take heart from the lower infection rates observed as more people get vaccinated. We already know that some vaccinated people get symptomatic covid-19, from the drug trials alone. I have to assume some of those people were able to transmit it to others. They certainly were able to transmit it to a PCR swab. That is easier to do then to transmit it to others, however.

Probably the only useful info we can hope to obtain, is that if a vaccinated person is infectious, how long do they maintain the ability to infect others. My guess is not very long at all. This should not be hard to test for. Just find a symptomatic covid-19 person who has been vaccinated. Confirm that they are infectious and then test them every darn day until they are covid free again. My guess is they will be non-infectious again, for almost all of them, with 1 to 2 days at the most. Just a guess though, that is derived from how effective the vaccine is at helping to speed up our ability to neutralize the virus in the 1st place.


----------



## cainvest

OptsyEagle said:


> Probably the only useful info we can hope to obtain, is that if a vaccinated person is infectious, how long do they maintain the ability to infect others. My guess is not very long at all.


So far the limited data is showing this, the vaccine is stopping covid from getting any real foothold. One would also assume that if covid is stopped from replicating significantly then long term negative effects should be greatly minimized as well.


----------



## sags

There are increasing reports of people becoming infected weeks after full vaccinations.

No reports of serious illness or hospitalizations required yet though, so that is good so far.


----------



## andrewf

sags said:


> There are increasing reports of people becoming infected weeks after full vaccinations.
> 
> No reports of serious illness or hospitalizations required yet though, so that is good so far.


Yes, it's a bit puzzling that CDC put out a statement along the lines of "fully vaccinated people don't carry the virus". Then you listen to what they say in detail and they are still recommending mask-wearing, testing for travel, etc. How many people are going to get that mask message, or interpret the first part to say 'go back to normal'.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> Then you listen to what they say in detail and they are still recommending mask-wearing, testing for travel, etc. How many people are going to get that mask message, or interpret the first part to say 'go back to normal'.


Fauci recently said (and I thought he was very clear) that vaccinated people should continue wearing masks, until we're out of this mess.

It's basic common sense. When you're in a disaster / emergency which is life threatening, you play it safe until you're out of the woods.


----------



## Eder

Other than as a courtesy to non vaccinated people there would no longer be any point to mask wearing for fully vaccinated people. Many will choose to wear a mask forever.


----------



## james4beach

Eder said:


> Other than as a courtesy to non vaccinated people there would no longer be any point to mask wearing for fully vaccinated people.


You're right that it's for the safety of non vaccinated people. You *should* wear a mask for the next while, because there are a ton of non vaccinated people around.

All those people working at Tim Hortons and all the stores you go to are vulnerable to covid, and many of them are now ending up in hospital. Wear a mask to protect them, please.









Dr. Fauci Explains Why You Should Still Wear a Mask After Getting the COVID Vaccine


If you’ve already received the COVID-19 vaccine, it’s important not to let your guard down – at least not yet, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and one of the nation’s top coronavirus experts. After virtually accepting an award...




www.nbcchicago.com


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## Money172375

Ford calling press conference at 230 with minister of Ed. Schools closing again? 
Toronto chief medical dr suggesting 2500 cases/day in Toronto alone is possible by end of month. That would likely mean 8-10,000 province wide. Gonna be a rough 4-6 weeks


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## newfoundlander61

Yes for sure, no pharmacies giving vaccines yet in our city of Kingston, it has been this way for weeks.


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## Money172375

newfoundlander61 said:


> Yes for sure, no pharmacies giving vaccines yet in our city of Kingston, it has been this way for weeks.


I think if you’re booking through the provincial portal, you can region hop for a vaccine.


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## cainvest

Looks like at least 3 provinces now giving AZ shots for 40+. Just took a look at the local map in MB and lots of places to get a shot right now.


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## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> I think if you’re booking through the provincial portal, you can region hop for a vaccine.


And they're shifting vaccines to the "highest risk" regions.
The unintended consequence is encouraging inter region travel.

I know people who chose to drive to a COVID19 hotspot to get their vaccine 2 weeks earlier.


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## andrewf

Ontario seems to be a uniquely disorganized shitshow for vaccine appointment booking.


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## cainvest

One of my friends called today, getting the AZ shot tomorrow!


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## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Ontario seems to be a uniquely disorganized shitshow for vaccine appointment booking.


Ontario also seems to be able to ramp up to half a million shots a day over the weekend.
Apparently each pharmacy is given about 80 shots, and on the news one was saying they could do 50 shots a day. 
Assuming that's true for each of the 1400 pharmacies, that's 700k/day there.
Plus doctors, plus the existing clinics, a million a day is within reach.

If we had enough vaccine, we could almost do the entire province in a week or two. Which makes sense, we did flu shots for everyone in less than 2 months, and that was elongated due to vaccine availability.

All we need now is someone to secure some of the excess US supply.


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## Eclectic12

While I agree the Ontario would accomplish it - I am doubtful the flu shots are all that great a measuring stick. 

IIRC, the beefed up order by the province in advance of the season was for one third of the province's population at something like five million doses ordered. Oct and Nov reporting talked about an additional 180K and 60K additional doses arriving.

Unfortunately, I'm not finding final numbers administered but it seems a stretch that it would be much over the six million mark.


Cheers


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## Money172375

MrMatt said:


> Ontario also seems to be able to ramp up to half a million shots a day over the weekend.
> Apparently each pharmacy is given about 80 shots, and on the news one was saying they could do 50 shots a day.
> Assuming that's true for each of the 1400 pharmacies, that's 700k/day there.
> Plus doctors, plus the existing clinics, a million a day is within reach.
> 
> If we had enough vaccine, we could almost do the entire province in a week or two. Which makes sense, we did flu shots for everyone in less than 2 months, and that was elongated due to vaccine availability.
> 
> All we need now is someone to secure some of the excess US supply.


700k? I think you mean 70k. Got me excited there.

in any event, I’m on about 7 wait lists for AZ. Novody‘s reached out to me yet. Reports on Twitter are that wait lists are useless....better to call the pharmacy direct.....I haven’t got to that point yet.


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## andrewf

Ontario seems to be a uniquely disorganized shitshow for vaccine appo


MrMatt said:


> Ontario also seems to be able to ramp up to half a million shots a day over the weekend.
> Apparently each pharmacy is given about 80 shots, and on the news one was saying they could do 50 shots a day.
> Assuming that's true for each of the 1400 pharmacies, that's 700k/day there.
> Plus doctors, plus the existing clinics, a million a day is within reach.
> 
> If we had enough vaccine, we could almost do the entire province in a week or two. Which makes sense, we did flu shots for everyone in less than 2 months, and that was elongated due to vaccine availability.
> 
> All we need now is someone to secure some of the excess US supply.


Sure. But getting an appointment could be less than a random clusterf*ck of phoning around to different chains or watching twitter for news of a popup clinic. Yes, everything would be wonderful if we had unlimited vaccine. I don't think the government has done all that badly securing vaccine compared to most of the industrialized world except UK, US, Israel. Ontario, even within Canada, seems to be struggling with sensibly allocating vaccine to where it will do most good, and to making it easy for people to arrange for an appointment without searching high and low once becoming eligible.


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## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> 700k? I think you mean 70k. Got me excited there.
> 
> in any event, I’m on about 7 wait lists for AZ. Novody‘s reached out to me yet. Reports on Twitter are that wait lists are useless....better to call the pharmacy direct.....I haven’t got to that point yet.


crap, math is hard... yeah at least 70k from pharmacies, I'm sure some have multiples. Even then we should be able to do a few hundred thousand a day. Far outstripping our vaccine supply, and that's a GOOD THING.

I'm actually glad the things holding back vaccines are external constraints, not anything anyone in country is messing up.

I'm hearing a lot about how the BC region restrictions aren't practical. I think they're a good idea, but if they're not practical in BC, they sure aren't practical in Ontario. Geographically it's too complicated.


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## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> Ontario seems to be a uniquely disorganized shitshow for vaccine appo
> 
> Sure. But getting an appointment could be less than a random clusterf*ck of phoning around to different chains or watching twitter for news of a popup clinic. Yes, everything would be wonderful if we had unlimited vaccine. I don't think the government has done all that badly securing vaccine compared to most of the industrialized world except UK, US, Israel. Ontario, even within Canada, seems to be struggling with sensibly allocating vaccine to where it will do most good, and to making it easy for people to arrange for an appointment without searching high and low once becoming eligible.


I'm on waitlists at Rexall and Shoppers, that's good enough for me.
I'm also on a 1hr standby list at Rexall, since I have a wide open schedule and they're 10 minutes away.

I think Ontario has a way to go, but I think it was just a few years ago that they were trialing pharmacies.


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## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> I'm on waitlists at Rexall and Shoppers, that's good enough for me.
> I'm also on a 1hr standby list at Rexall, since I have a wide open schedule and they're 10 minutes away.
> 
> I think Ontario has a way to go, but I think it was just a few years ago that they were trialing pharmacies.


That's the kind of privilege that comes with being wealthier, having more free time, and more savvy to navigate the system that is resulting in wealthy, white WFH people getting vaccinated instead of at-risk populations living in multigenerational households and working in high risk workplaces. An amazon worker can't be on standby for an appointment or take the bus 50km to get to a pharmacy in another region that has capacity/doses.

I'd rather the government be giving high priority groups relatively unfettered access to book appointments up until a week before the window, then release unused slots for whoever else is willing/secondary priority.


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## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> That's the kind of privilege that comes with being wealthier, having more free time, and more savvy to navigate the system that is resulting in wealthy, white WFH people getting vaccinated instead of at-risk populations living in multigenerational households and working in high risk workplaces. An amazon worker can't be on standby for an appointment or take the bus 50km to get to a pharmacy in another region that has capacity/doses.
> 
> I'd rather the government be giving high priority groups relatively unfettered access to book appointments up until a week before the window, then release unused slots for whoever else is willing/secondary priority.


Nothing to disagree with there.
I don't think people should travel across regions.
Also London (my area) is already losing vaccine allocation to those other regions. 

I know health care workers getting shots in late march/early april, there were a LOT of no shows.
If my wealthy WFH lifestyle means that those noshow doses and vaccination capacity lands in someones arm, rather than in the waste bin, we all benefit. 

I'm not sure how much of the "at risk" population is getting it from work, or from socializing. The data on that isn't clear.
Also people in their 40's are at much higher risk than people in their 20s.

Finally in my are it's 40+, hard hit areas get more vaccine and are 18+.


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## Money172375

Hot spot communities, marginalized people and hard hit employers are getting priority. Friends of mine In hot spots are getting shots quick, while I wait on lists. 

we still have a ways to go. Getting everyone with their first shot seems a challenge for June. I would have hoped we’d be well over 100,000 shots a day in Ontario, every day. We’ve only hit 100,000 a few times. Even at 100,000 day, that’s 700k week...2.8 million a month. So we’re well into July to get to 10 million ”first jabs”


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## andrewf

Money172375 said:


> Hot spot communities, marginalized people and hard hit employers are getting priority. Friends of mine In hot spots are getting shots quick, while I wait on lists.
> 
> we still have a ways to go. Getting everyone with their first shot seems a challenge for June. I would have hoped we’d be well over 100,000 shots a day in Ontario, every day. We’ve only hit 100,000 a few times. Even at 100,000 day, that’s 700k week...2.8 million a month. So we’re well into July to get to 10 million ”first jabs”
> View attachment 21578


As the Ford apologists have been saying, it will pick up as Canada's vaccine supply rate increases. I don't really blame either Trudeau or Ford for the number of vaccinations we have been able to secure and deliver to this point. Canada is middle of the pack on number of doses received and deployed. I question Ford, as it is his jurisdiction, on some of the decisions that were made on how to allocate that vaccine. After the elderly/congregate care and health care workers were vaccinated, they should have more quickly pivoted to essential workers/high risk workplaces. Instead they were taking a 'safe' oldest to youngest, treat all locales equally approach that contributed to the latest flare up. The current wave in Ontario was somewhat inevitable, but it could have been mitigated and suppressed earlier. I think there was some wishful thinking happening that vaccines would save us, but that was never going to be true for the third wave.


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## Money172375

Ontario r0 now under 1.00. Hopefully the peak of wave 3 is behind us. Another month of stay-at-home order.


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## Money172375




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## Eder

Money172375 said:


> Ontario r0 now under 1.00. Hopefully the peak of wave 3 is behind us. Another month of stay-at-home order.


I like how the lock down implemented the other day already gets credit for dropping numbers.


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## Money172375

Eder said:


> I like how the lock down implemented the other day already gets credit for dropping numbers.


Been locked down since the 8th. 2 weeks already.


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## MrMatt

Money172375 said:


> Been locked down since the 8th. 2 weeks already.


And it takes 2 weeks for behaviour change to show up in the numbers.

Also easter and the nice weather also ended 2 weeks ago.
Hopefully the downtrend continues and we can at least give all the COVID19 patients proper care.

I don't think the kids are going back to school.


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## Eder

Money172375 said:


> Been locked down since the 8th. 2 weeks already.


I thought they just started shaking down drivers and closing playgrounds...that probably helped.


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## james4beach

The Alberta infection numbers are off the charts. Calgary's infection rate is double the rate of India's.

Thoughts & prayers for all of you in Alberta ... please stay safe, stay away from other people. Hope this turns around soon.



OptsyEagle said:


> Does anyone know if any of the provinces show the age of people being admitted to the hospital and/or ICU?


The BC Situation Reports have nice breakdowns by age group, including cumulative totals hospitalized and in ICU.


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## andrewf

Well, I suspect India is catching a smaller % of their cases in testing.


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## Eder

Yet Alberta positivity rate is lower than BC. 9.9% vs 11.1


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## james4beach

Eder said:


> Yet Alberta positivity rate is lower than BC. 9.9% vs 11.1


Yup, Alberta does a good job with testing. I wonder how the cases got so out of hand in the recent weeks.


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## s1231

for the record: data (4/30/2021)




__





COVID-19 Tracker Canada - Vaccination Tracker


Real-time COVID-19 vaccination updates for every region in Canada, tracking doses of Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine delivered and administered to Canadians.



covid19tracker.ca


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## Beaver101

CP24 - Toronto News | Breaking News Headlines | Weather, Traffic, Sports

Above link has Toronto (Ontario, Canada) mayor says: "Toronto's Covid numbers are still unacceptable."

Who is listening to this quack who talks from 2 sides of his mouth?


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