# Scotland Looks to Break Free , how markets will be affected?



## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Still didn't see thread about referendum. Any one planing to play "referendum"? Especially if Scotland separates.... do you watch any specific stocks? All my exposure to UK stocls is via VEA, but wouldn't mind to buy on bargain some solid UK stocks

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/146597/Scotland-Looks-to-Break-Free-4-British-ETFs-to-Watch


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

never gonna happen ...


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Some reading I found interesting the other day
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2481605-hunting-for-the-u-k-s-best-returns
As always ofc one must do your own due diligence, I sometimes look to articles like this for ideas and then research the related ADRs, if there are any, through the tools in TD webbroker for a little more in depth analysis.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

I already picked up some RBS earlier in the week and will hopefully pick up some Lyd tmo.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

_Royal Bank of Scotland has confirmed it will relocate its registered headquarters to London if Scotland votes for independence next week._ like BMO whe French separatists wanted independend quebec  
So, if Scotland separates, what stocks will be traded on Edinburgh stock exchange?!


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

What comes first mood or news.

The mood of the masses causes the masses to act in a certain way. A break up is a sign of a trend change from we to they. Inclusion is a bull market trait, exclusion a bear market trait.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

This reminds me of Ukraine leaving Soviet Union... a few decades later, Russia wants it back. 

Will the same thing happen in United Kingdom? Maybe. If there is an ambitious leader trying to 'annex' it back.

It's like a Deja vu happening in front of your eyes. Eh?


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

MoreMiles said:


> This reminds me of Ukraine leaving Soviet Union... a few decades later, Russia wants it back.
> 
> Will the same thing happen in United Kingdom? Maybe. If there is an ambitious leader trying to 'annex' it back.
> 
> It's like a Deja vu happening in front of your eyes. Eh?


No, not really. Aside from being part of a union there are really no similarities at all. At least I don't see it. I've made a decent return this last week on Lyd and RBS. Pure trading positions. Hopefully "no thanks" pulls out a win tomorrow and I can flip these two for a dent return.


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

I can envisage a UK without Scotland (and even Wales). But I can't see Canada without Quebec.


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## Mockingbird (Apr 29, 2009)

Forget the market. I'm more concerned with the possible rise of Scotch prices. :biggrin:


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

the way i see it, even if the Yeas win today, scotland doesn't become independent tomorrow.

the way i see it, a yes vote indicates merely that scotland wants to negotiate her independence. Has, in fact, taken no more than the first step on a long road.

true separation, if it is to happen, is scheduled for march 2016. That's 18 months away. It will take that long to negotiate what to do about the pound, the B of E (let's not forget that Carney is at the helm), the nuclear subs, the dwindling north sea oilfields, etc.

what i read is that none of these issues have been solved yet. In fact they don't even seem to have been addressed, because apparently Alex Salmond was canny in stepping around them every time he was asked to comment.

if scotland votes yes today, all the hard work is yet to come. Presumably, if the negotiations go badly for edinburgh, somewhere down the pike they could hold another referendum.

presumably, if the bank of england says Drop Dead, if the EC says Non while NATO says 2% of GDP or You're Not In, if all the head offices flee south to england or even offshore - gosh even baby George will pull his famous sulky face & wail I Doan Wanna be you Pwince - presumably the Scots, who are not dumb, will hold another referendum to vote themselves back into the UK.


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

I'm not so sure humble. 

Cameron made it quite clear what to expect if there is a YES vote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...d-Cameron-begs-Scots-not-to-leave-the-UK.html


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

liquidfinance said:


> ... Cameron made it quite clear what to expect if there is a YES vote



me i don't see that he made anything clear. Cameron was just grinding out emotional hurdy-gurdy.

to quote from your cited article itself, a prominent ScotNat leader had this to say about Cameron's last-minute pro-unity tear-jerker:

_Blair Jenkins, chief executive of the Yes Scotland campaign, said: “David Cameron’s speech was the same litany of empty threats and empty promises we have come to expect from the No campaign.”_


unrepentant as i am despite your blandishments, liquid, i still believe that not one of the gritty separation issues has been addressed. If the Yeas carry the day today, then all of that real work will have to be commenced.

that's why i think there'll be plenty of opportunities to backtrack, even try to cancel.

Q: would Westminster take back a bolted Edinburgh, all tattered & teary-eyed & somewhat the worse for wear?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

never gonna happen ... though i would love to see it


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Never say never. 

It's very close. The SNP ran a great campaign. The Scots are fed up with being ruled from London. They are very proud people. They could easily vote with their hearts and not their heads. 

We will find out soon enough.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

liquidfinance said:


> Never say never.
> 
> It's very close. The SNP ran a great campaign. The Scots are fed up with being ruled from London. They are very proud people. They could easily vote with their hearts and not their heads.
> 
> We will find out soon enough.


i think the brits did an exemplary job scaring the living shite out of them though .....


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

here you go, the ScotNats themselves are saying independence on 24 march 2016, certainly not tomorrow.

http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/how-will-scotland-become-independent

if the vote is Yea today, the next 18months will be spent in "positive negotiations" with the UK government, say the ScotNats.

i don't think it matters how proud they are. Do they really understand how tight the belt will have to be twisted if the pound & the bank of england depart? do they even have a name for a new scottish currency?

i'm thinking here about quebec. It is always flabbergasting to see how few quebec separatistes understand what would really happen if quebec were to secede. It is common for quebecers to believe that they will still have canadian passports after separation, the canadian army will arrive promptly to bail them out if they experience any flood or storm or terrorist troubles, the federally-owned & federally-financed airports & seaports will continue to operate on ottawa's budget, etc.

(please let us not have any quebec jokes at this point in time. Would all kindly refrain from suggesting the scots may be smarter etc. Thank you.)

during the runup to the last quebec referendum, some wise person in the ROC wrote "Hey I think it would be a blast to set up your own country." Then he went on to point out why the romantic, heady excitement doesn't last, why the confederated states & provinces usually turn out to need each other.

they say that throughout scottish history, when the wild, feisty, gaelic highlanders would be strong, the country would fall into warring pieces; whereas when the calm, practical saxon lowlanders would dominate, the country would unite.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

My admittedly basic understanding of Scottish/British history is that Scotland played a much more significant role in the union in the past, and that it is only in the last 100 years or so that Scotland has waned in importance relative to England (aka London/the Southeast). A bit more like the upper & lower Canada dynamic. These days Quebec is fading in influence and power within Canada.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

2 out of 32 regional districts reporting & the Nays are leading:

clackmannanshire: No 19,036, Yes 16,350

orkney: No 10,004, Yes 4,883


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> 2 out of 32 regional districts reporting & the Nays are leading:
> 
> clackmannanshire: No 19,036, Yes 16,350
> 
> orkney: No 10,004, Yes 4,883


positive results for the no side so far. Over a 7% return on my Scottish banks this week to Hopefully those and other euro banks will see a nice pop tmo if the results stay on track.


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## Islenska (May 4, 2011)

Neat bit of political update with this referendum but the NO should prevail

but still "the times they are a changin,,,,," R.Burns?


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Live results from the BBC

http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/results


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Appears to be a 'no' result at 55% based on statistics, but not final yet. That's close!!!

Interesting to me that Glasgow, a big city, had 53% yes. It will be interesting to see if Edinburgh was also pro-yes.

Final results are expected by approximately 2 or 3 am Toronto time.


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## braintootired (Nov 4, 2013)

Well, the UK dodged a bullet there.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Interesting to me that Glasgow, a big city, had 53% yes. It will be interesting to see if Edinburgh was also pro-yes.



exactly as to be expected. Edinburgh, the lowland capital, home of so many scots engineers & economists who emigrated to benefit other nations in the scottish diaspora, voted 61% No.

glasgow is closer to the highland chiefs. They're really almost like 2 peoples. The highlanders are the gaels, smaller, feistier, darker. The lowlanders have a more saxon heritage, are taller, blonder, cooler.

orkney, shetland & the northern isles? their ancestors were vikings ...

i feel sympathetic to the large swath of Yesses who lost. The truth is that they won. They won for civilization & social justice everywhere. They stood up for free education, left-wing labour, no nukes, peoples' democracy, local government, own resources, an end to foreign capital plunder.

scotland was the first nation in the world to enshrine universal free public education in the schools, hundreds of years ago. It was also, i believe, the first western nation to guarantee free university education for its nationals. It seemed odd to read recently that british universities charge tuition while scottish universities do not.

may the Yes voters not be discouraged. They didn't carry the vote but their causes got an important hearing. Now we'll see how many of those last-minute concessionary promises from downing street & whitehall will be delivered.


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Interesting to me that Glasgow, a big city, had 53% yes. It will be interesting to see if Edinburgh was also pro-yes.


Glasgow was always going to be a yes. No doubt in my mind on that one for sure.


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

At least they all speak the same lingo (even if it is hard to understand some of them. Not like them thar Quebecers. I remember asking for directions in Quebec, was tough, luckily found a helpful cop.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Canada needs to break away from the first nations.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

_sidebar tidbit re ungraceful losers_


the queen prats on about love for Scotland while Alex Salmond announces he will step down as scotNat leader following the Yes defeat.

some british media weren't allowed to attend salmond's press conference, held at salmond's private residence, Bute House, in edinburgh.

the Telegraph was excluded. So were the daily Mail & the daily Express. The Guardian refused to send any journalists at all after it was told the scotNats would rule on which of its filthy scribes might be permitted to sully the portals of Bute House.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...ex-Salmonds-resignation-press-conference.html


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Alas I have reached my quota of Telegraph articles. I may have to subscribe, at just of 4 of my old English pounds per month the subscription is quite reasonable. If only the Globe could price at such a comparable level.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

liquidfinance said:


> Alas I have reached my quota of Telegraph articles. I may have to subscribe, at just of 4 of my old English pounds per month the subscription is quite reasonable. If only the Globe could price at such a comparable level.


the globe is dreaming at $19.95 a month ... i might do 10 to 12 but 20 is a no-go


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

That's more than the Economist, and that is a far, far, far better publication.


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