# Those on the sidelines with cash, what's your game plan?



## phankinson (Oct 4, 2012)

I'm a long time lurker of the forum, and I've seen many posts that many of you are sitting on the sidelines with cash. Given the markets this morning I'm really curious what is your game plan now with this correction in play?

- Are you moving all of your capital in the markets today?
- Do you plan on deploying (dollar cost averaging) over the next little while? I'd love to know how your thinking about it (eg. 1/3 today, 1/3 in September, 1/3 in October).
- Are you going to execute on any strategies like the Butterfly Spread Strategy?
- Continue business as usual?
- Maybe another plan?


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

How about park it in the bank and turn off the tv and go tend the garden or something. 

This market is whacked and so manipulated it isn`t even real anymore. Real demand and supply cannot express themselves thus real valuation is fiction.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

watch another game ... buying or selling in this environment is crazy


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

The plan is to wait to the dust settles and pick through the debris. I'm a fundamental investor but I've learned not to fight momentum and catch falling knives.


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## sherwooddavid (May 5, 2009)

I'm in that position with $500K in cash in my account and waiting to invest. I'm not really worried about it though,I figure my FA will tell me when its time to jump in. Nice feeling though not to have to worry about all this crap that's been happening the last few days. I might just leave it in all GIC's as I really don't need much more money but would like to keep what I have.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

Recent history has shown that govts and central banks will do whatever whacky schemes they can to keep the party going. 

I expect the fed to defer any talk of rates for a long time. I expect Canada and other exporting countries to cut rates again this fall. I expect china to do all manner of crazy stuff to right their market. I expect EU and Japan to ramp up QE with the states to maybe follow.

And the sovereign debt....what ever becomes of that. It has to hit somewhere eventually.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

to me the real question is: where to go ?
money must earn at some point, you can sit in cash just so long
there is not a single asset class on the planet that looks better than stocks
as bad as they look, they are still the best-looking girl at the dance


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Will watch
Dollar cost
Purchase new holdings
Will top of RY for sure another 500 shares,nice dividend today


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Turn off TV and ignore it.

I've had mine off for 5 years now it's finally getting interesting.

Before the 08 crash you could jump in and make some easy money on a 300 pt correction.

This time it is a slow wobble down. About 35% cash up about 10% in last 6 months.

Not ready to buy yet just know what I will buy.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

I'm at about 35% cash too. 
Slowly moving some over to the HISA that my brokerage is linked to, (6K today, 4K tomorrow)
I don't see the 6K there yet so I didn't have any stink bids in this morning; hopefully tomorrow the prices will be even better.
I hope this isn't another quick vee-drop; I don't want to miss the bargain prices; if not I'll be buying all the way to the bottom.

I'm ready to buy all the way to the bottom of a 50%+ decline, even if it lasts a couple years.
I doubt it will go that deep but I'll probably go close to 100% equity if it does, maybe even go back to work full-time for some extra cash to invest.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I plan to do nothing with my cash at this time unless I feel the need to trade a bit. I think anyone with mostly cash and starting out, now is a good time to begin the DCA program. Bear markets are a wonderful time to DCA, not get rattled and take your time like monthly lasting for years. Of course you will be underwater until it ends, but when it comes back you will have your gains.


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## Doryman (Jul 31, 2013)

I'm at about 50% cash right now.

I'm a bit shy at jumping in, since I'm staring at a sea of red here, but my current plan is to save aggressively and identify some stocks I'd like to get into. I'll wait for some upside before buying. I might miss out on the bottom, but I'll be okay with it.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

My game plan is to wait for lower values than current ones.

I have been sitting mostly out of the market since 2008 because I believed the "strength" was induced by zero interest rates and QE. I think that the central banks juiced the stock and bond markets and drove valuations way up. I refused to buy into a market that was totally dependent on central bank stimulus.

The first thing I will be buying is the TSX index, but not until it crashes more. This morning alone XIU was down over 8% at one point. I think it will inevitably head 10%, 20% or even 40% lower than here. I don't feel any rush to buy.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Agree, no rush to buy. The fall might be messy! Blood in the streets....


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Markets are hardly at a bottom. I am buying nothing except perhaps bonds or debentures or preferreds issued by relatively secure companies. Energy stocks are tempting, but probably a long road before recovery. Some smaller ones will no doubt go under or be taken over for pennies.


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## besmartrich (Jan 11, 2015)

I wish I had some cash today.


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## jaybee (Nov 28, 2014)

I bought some AAPL this morning after the bell and managed to get some at $94. I'm still sitting on cash, but picking opportunities as they arise. I don't think we've bottomed out yet...


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## emperor (Jul 24, 2011)

Like some other people mentioned I don't like the current environment. It seems like houses and the stock market are all speculation and manipulation.

I'm saving cash right now. If real estate drops 25-30 % Ill get a condo. For the stock market I might go see if there is a guaranteed market linked GIC. I do buy some stocks but the only money I put in there is what I consider garbage cash which pretty much means I don't care if I loose it because I probably will. 

What makes me really nervous is there seems to be a big consensuses that you should buy and hold for the long term. When ever tons of people have the same strategy it seems to not work out for some reason.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

the game plan is always the same even if one does not have cash on the sidelines. 
1. Have a list of quality stocks you could hold for a minimum 3-5 years. 
2 have in mind a good price for the stock. (good prices usually do not present themselves when appreciation potential for the market as a whole is at multi decade lows.)
3. When the good price presents itself, buy.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

emperor said:


> What makes me really nervous is there seems to be a big consensuses that you should buy and hold for the long term. When ever tons of people have the same strategy it seems to not work out for some reason.


I don't think buy and hold is dead. I think if you did that with XIU and VTI for the last 10-years you would have been very happy. 

It depends what you mean with buy and hold.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

James James James now you are market timing. Why do I not believe.


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## jaybee (Nov 28, 2014)

My Own Advisor said:


> I don't think buy and hold is dead. I think if you did that with XIU and VTI for the last 10-years you would have been very happy.
> 
> It depends what you mean with buy and hold.


Ssshhh. Let him\her think that. Maybe they'll sell us their shares on sell offs.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I don't think market timing is quite as impossible as we are led to believe. Do you think institutions and trading houses are 100% long all the time? Certainly not.


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## cashinstinct (Apr 4, 2009)

Does not mean they will succeed though. They are not 100% long all the time, does not mean they get the timing right....


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I purchase the same handful of stocks every two -three months , impossible to pick the bottom , I did buy RY today .


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Perfect market timing is impossible.

Reasonably close is still market timing just not perfect.


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

james4beach said:


> I don't think market timing is quite as impossible as we are led to believe. Do you think institutions and trading houses are 100% long all the time? Certainly not.


My understanding is that most institutional equity money is indexed and is long all the time. It's pretty much the law in the US. And I thought that you did the supporting calculations last week?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Buy out of the money puts near the top of a wave 2 rally that corrects the first 5er down sell near the bottom of wave 3. 

In 2016/2017 load up on gold & silver


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

uptoolate said:


> My understanding is that most institutional equity money is indexed and is long all the time. It's pretty much the law in the US. And I thought that you did the supporting calculations last week?


First of all, hedge funds and investment bank trading desks certainly vary their market exposure over time. They certainly aren't sitting there with static positions. You're thinking of pension funds and things with mandates to hold certain minimum allocations.

And yes I calculated that the average case (random start points) gives good odds of price increases. That is the upward bias of stock markets that we all know and love. But the average case is not the same as a given situation you encounter. For instance 2007 was not an average time in the market; you had crashing corporate debt, bank balance sheets deteriorating, etc. If you are aware of those things, it's silly to treat 2007 like just an average sample of market history.

Conversely if you don't have any reason to think there's anything special or unique going on, then you might as well go with the average case and just buy all the time.

Those trading desks and hedge funds are trading something, and doing it profitably. Even Buffett does it; he varies his equity exposure. There *are* inefficiencies in markets. So while it's true that on a historical average stocks rise at X% a year, it's also true that some people are finding inefficiencies and price opportunities to exploit.

My gamble (my trade) is the following: I think markets have been artificially stimulated and far above fair value for the last handful of years. I don't think the financial crisis ever resolved itself, but was put on hold. I expect the price of stock indices and various other things (junk bonds, corp bonds) to drop. So I *think* there are unique circumstances and I'm trading on it.

You guys criticize me for not being an investor and not trading, but I am a bolder trader than you. I'm betting on something specific that I have reason to believe, and it's a BIG bet: I have passed on the rising market of 2009-2014 because I think it's temporary. I think I'll be able to buy lower. This is a macro bet based on fundamentals.

You'd think that people on the forum would be supportive of these investing activities. Instead I just hear nagging at my refusal to buy stocks. Think outside the box, people. Understand that I'm making a long term trade... *cash is a legitimate trade.*

I could certainly be wrong. That's how we make markets  Let's find out.


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## capricorn (Dec 3, 2013)

30% in cash. not planning to buy unless S&P drops 500 points from here. not planning to sell anything.


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

j4b when you referred to 'institutions' I thought of pension funds and endowment funds and certainly not hedge funds and investment banks. Both of the latter sometimes do indeed trade like crazy and much research has shown that this generally greatly enriches the proprietors of hedge funds and investment banks at the expense of their investors. When does one get out, when does one get back in? Can anyone do this repeatedly and make money? Please, please point me in her direction. This discussion has happened many times here and elsewhere. 

'it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future'


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## Getafix (Dec 29, 2014)

I'm watching this 'crash' with a lot of interest. I recently inherited a good chunk of change & though i was hesitant in investing it, if this correction continues there could be some deals popping up that would be hard to resist.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

james4beach said:


> I have passed on the rising market of 2009-2014 because I think it's temporary. I think I'll be able to buy lower.


So before you get into the market you'll wait until its lower than the 2009 dip ... then what? Don't you think the same conditions that made the market rise up to 2014 will still exist and once again, after some period of growth they'll be another correction?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I don't have an absolute level in mind to buy. I'm waiting more for conditions such as total panic and loss of faith. Right now everyone is still too confident, so the psychology hasn't quite broken yet. People are saying things like, I'm still up a lot in the last X years.

Today we saw ETF arbitrage break, thousands of stock halts in the US, and correlated selling in everything. We saw the VIX break and dislocate from the market. This is crazy stuff... it's not just a bad day. It's a broken market. All the signs are here, but people are still ignoring them. So I think there will be much, much more pain in the two years ahead.

After steady losses you'll see the psychology change. The level of confidence people exhibit here on CMF is a wonderful thing to watch, and will help me make my trades. So keep it coming ... tell me how dumb I am, and tell me what *you* will do. Because I'll be trading against you, _amigos_.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

And with your doomsday series of ranks the very next morning all your wide eye crap happens. Every body will still need TD,JJ,PG and all the div. aristocrat company's. 

I've told you before The America way is what you will need. Scoot down to the 7/11 and buy a sat. night special because all etf,gic, are broke. That stack of cash no good. 

You see everything up to a crash and nothing pass.

By the way the 7/11 will be closed.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

James we may still see Dow 30,000 in the next year or two if the Fed and the paper pushers go all in. This will mean the end of our paper world as we know it when the music stops. So we either start to go through it now or we get the ultimate can kick down the road. Either way what ever amount of money we end up with in the bank or our brokerage accounts may not mean much when the reset comes. 

I think people on this forum should be happy with all the gains that have been made since 2009 and treat it as a gift. They should not be mistaking these gains like the buy and hold gains from the past because these gains didn't come from a normal near free market.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

james4beach said:


> My gamble (my trade) is the following: I think markets have been artificially stimulated and far above fair value for the last handful of years. I don't think the financial crisis ever resolved itself, but was put on hold. I expect the price of stock indices and various other things (junk bonds, corp bonds) to drop. So I *think* there are unique circumstances and I'm trading on it.
> 
> You guys criticize me for not being an investor and not trading, but I am a bolder trader than you. I'm betting on something specific that I have reason to believe, and it's a BIG bet: I have passed on the rising market of 2009-2014 because I think it's temporary. I think I'll be able to buy lower. This is a macro bet based on fundamentals.
> 
> ...


 Might feel comfortable being part of the herd, it is just not practical for making & keeping money. Tim Wood, Bob Prechter would get a lot of hate mail when they made a good call in their market letters. When Prechter didn't get the hate mail he said he knew he made a bad call. The bigger the move against the herd the more hate mail that came in.

When the market is near a bottom of a once or twice in a lifetime buying opportunity. When your @ a party mentioning the stock market will not be the in thing to do. Just the opposite people will hate you. Judging by the way there is a negative response to some of James posts we are no where near a bottom.

On the internet there are a lot calling for a crash which I do not feel comfortable with playing the short side. Perhaps we get a crash & everyone thinks that is it. Then the market has failed rallies with even bigger crashes.


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## Doryman (Jul 31, 2013)

Here's what I figure.

If the market crashes for awhile, but recovers, I'll be a guy holding a bundle of stocks that had a hard run and came back. Maybe, I'll lose a few, maybe some won't go back to their peak value but I doubt every one of the large cap stocks I hold will disappear on me. Over the next 3-4 decades, I'll likely be better off than worse. 

If the market crashes so hard that we go in for some extended mad max scenario... well,I'll be an able-bodied young man with some guns, a 4x4 and a rural plot of land with a large family.  I won't have much use for my shares, but then, if things are that bad, I won't have much use for paper or digital currency, either.

I don't think this is anything to panic about. In most scenarios, the market will continue to dip and rise for the rest of our lives. In the OMGWORST case scenario, absolutely nothing we're arguing about here will matter, anyway. 

Reeelllaaaxxxxx, guys.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

james4beach said:


> After steady losses you'll see the psychology change. The level of confidence people exhibit here on CMF is a wonderful thing to watch, and will help me make my trades. So keep it coming ... tell me how dumb I am, and tell me what *you* will do. Because I'll be trading against you, _amigos_.


Well, Good Luck to you ... whatever unorthodox scheme you've decided to follow. 

I'll just keep on doing my thing, mainly indexing and buying some extra when I see value.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

I don't get the laser beam focus on the short-term(under 5 yrs)
There is generally 2 camps of investors(leaving traders and market timers out)
Those accumulating and those retired
Those accumulating it is a likely still a 20/25+ journey(30-35 yrs or younger)
Those who are retired should be using either dividends and or withdrawing(4% per an)
Yeah nobody likes to lose money short term or see big red days but it is not like we 'all' didn't know what we 'signed' up for
Its the equity markets!wtf you expect.....This stuff bugs you you don't belong in the market period or find another asset class
The nature of the market is proof this is the best asset class.....without risk no reward
Everybody is seeing things through traders eyes,its funny.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

james4beach said:


> You guys criticize me for not being an investor and not trading, but I am a bolder trader than you. I'm betting on something specific that I have reason to believe, and it's a BIG bet: I have passed on the rising market of 2009-2014 because I think it's temporary. I think I'll be able to buy lower. This is a macro bet based on fundamentals.


you simply don't make any sense, you literally loosing money every year by sitting in cash...simple math, let's say you had $500,000 cash in 09, if you invested in stocks yielding 5%, by now (in 6 years) you would make $150,000 just in dividends, that's a 30% return on your half a mill (and probably would double in equity appreciation, but let's ignore that)... so you're waiting for a bigger correction than in 09, so if you wait another 6 years you'll loose another $200,000 you could of earned from dividend stocks. So roughly in 10-15 years you would of doubled your money and have a cool million.

I'm sure my numbers are not super accurate, just an example.


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## godblsmnymkr (Jul 15, 2015)

ya, sitting out on a one of the longest bull markets in history because you think its "temporary" doesnt make any sense. how long of a bull market do you need before you invest if you cant invest in this one?


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

I don't think it's lost on j4 what the equity markets have done in the last 8 years, what I don't get is why you guys feel the need to be constantly rubbing it in his face, he's looking at strategies and trying to have an intelligent discussion here, is there something in some way offensive about that?

fwiw I find his thoughts and perspective quite valuable, a welcome change from the usual cut-and-paste opinions most of the rest of the herd keep reiterating.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

If you read and remember, he doesn't tell stories he flat out L. And has been caught 20 times.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

don't think so, I think he's been pretty consistent in what he's said about why and what he holds.
I think it's just another case of mob mentality, just the way I see it.

Show me one example where he hasn't adequately defended himself or lay down the pitchforks & torches lol
Negative remarks that aren't in any way contibuting aren't exactly helpful to an intelligent discussion imho


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## godblsmnymkr (Jul 15, 2015)

mrPPincer said:


> Show me one example where he hasn't adequately defended himself or lay down the pitchforks & torches lol
> Negative remarks that aren't in any way contibuting aren't exactly helpful to an intelligent discussion imho


I would like to hear his defense of not participating in one of the longest bull markets in history because it is "temporary."


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

sometime a couple years ago he explained something about why he had to hold for the most part secure assets at the time, not gonna try and find the thread


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I need to hold a bunch of near-cash assets as business capital. Stocks were not suitable for that storage so that limited me to bonds & savings accounts, for that chunk of money.

I've been very consistent with what I say. I've posted my allocations at various times, there's not much mystery to what I do. People who are highly dependent on inflated stock prices just don't like hearing my anti-stock message and that's not a surprise... I was a short seller in 2007-2008. I shorted one American bank _to zero_. I know what it's like to be unpopular, but more important than being 'popular'... I was *right* 

Lately I do have more spare money, and I still don't put it in stocks. Yes I am aware that the market went up a lot since 2009. "Missing out on the party" is not something that drives my decisions.

I don't participate because I think the global markets are deeply troubled. Zero interest rates and QE are emergency measures, and I don't want to expose my hard-earned money to these kinds of risks in a market that apparently needs emergency support. It's been 7 years of emergency support now.

Markets went straight up with central bank stimulus. There is nothing organic or fundamental about that kind of equity rise. It's stimulus-driven... and if the stimulus stops, markets will fall.

What I'm curious about is how so many of you are so confident in this market. Do you think stocks would be rising like this without the central bank pumping money into it? Do you think they will provide emergency-level stimulus _forever_? If 'yes' ... you may be right. If 'no', then what happens when they stop?

I think the market *wants* to be much lower, in the absence of stimulus & support. These flash crashes -- which let's remember only started happening in 2010 -- are evidence of that. Any time there is a blip in the confidence system, large cap stocks or major ETFs plummet by -25% (like XLF and XFN on Monday) to -90% (those 'blue chip' stocks in 2010). And I think that once the stimulus proves ineffective, stocks will go lower.

In my opinion, the flash crashes... a market behaviour that only surfaced after QE re-flated the S&P 500... is a hint of price discovery. There is a theory that goes: if you suppress market volatility for a long period, you are only delaying the cumulative volatility, not making it disappear. I think that volatility is like a coiled spring.

And I think that when, eventually, your pals at the central banks are not able to offer more stimulus, the whole thing can snap. At that time, we'll get price discovery of the nature we are currently seeing _hints_ of. So that's my theory: the market wants to go lower. But stimulus is suppressing volatility, for now.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

godblsmnymkr said:


> I would like to hear his defense of not participating in one of the longest bull markets in history because it is "temporary."


So, did you understand why I did not participate? And why I still have minimal stock exposure?

Summary version: Market is overvalued and broken. Market is totally addicted to stimulus and will fall without stimulus. Stimulus cannot last forever. Therefore, eventually the market will fall.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

mrPPincer said:


> don't think so, I think he's been pretty consistent in what he's said about why and what he holds.
> I think it's just another case of mob mentality, just the way I see it.
> 
> Show me one example where he hasn't adequately defended himself or lay down the pitchforks & torches lol
> Negative remarks that aren't in any way contibuting aren't exactly helpful to an intelligent discussion imho


 I have been getting a few negative remarks in last few days also of being more or less an idiot, I really do not care I m a big boy I can handle it. Just would like to point out those that are different from the herd are hated esp @ historic market turns. On Friday one of my puts was up 900%, on Monday had a 300% gain on one of my puts, Tues had a 30% up day for one of my puts. In the last few trading days most have been losing money yet the money I have on the table has increased @ its fastest rate since I was on here. ( in the 08 crash I had my best gains ever) In fairness the gains of last few days has pretty well made up for losses shorting a little to early & most likely there will be a strong rally where a lot of the premium gained in last few days is given up. Though I do think we will head down even harder this fall.

Have also had a few negative comments regarding the use of astrology for playing the market in last few days, First Monday of every month Crawford puts out his market letter. Crawford AKA as wall streets best known astrologer recommended buying puts last Wed for negative planetary alignments going into the weekend that just past. Rarely does Arch recommend options. On Crawfords sight there is a link to an interview where he mentions the recommended puts the interview was done before the mini baby bloodbath.

Kinda interesting how those that are independent thinkers & do not follow the herd have been getting a bit of hate posts lately & yet they have been performing better then most right near the time they are receiving the hate posts. If you want to fit in do what everyone else is doing


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

lonewolf, don't feel bad. It's the same in other aspects of life: people embrace mainstream conventional thinking and dislike dissenters. It's part of group/herd psychology. There is perceived safety in doing what the crowd does and this is a big reason people's investment strategies are so similar.

I still acknowledge that yes I may be wrong. It could be that the stock market will thrive even without central bank stimulus and that it will never decline meaningfully. If that happens, then I've suffered a low return in cash. That's the risk I decide to take on. To mitigate this risk, I still have some stock exposure... BRK.B and a few TSX stocks


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## jaybee (Nov 28, 2014)

^ You will suffer a negative return in cash. Not a low return.


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## godblsmnymkr (Jul 15, 2015)

lonewolf said:


> * Have also had a few negative comments regarding the use of astrology for playing the market in last few days*, First Monday of every month Crawford puts out his market letter. Crawford AKA as wall streets best known astrologer recommended buying puts last Wed for negative planetary alignments going into the weekend that just past. Rarely does Arch recommend options. On Crawfords sight there is a link to an interview where he mentions the recommended puts the interview was done before the mini baby bloodbath.


I'm on this forum to learn from/help others and have no time to waste arguing on the internet, but i had to stop when you mentioned market astrology. the fact that you pay for someone to tell you whats going to happen in the market next (which no one can do) based on stars is something i have never heard of and I am flabbergasted that you would believe in it. i have got to be skeptical of pretty much anything you say from now on. 
congrats on your big options wins. easier to make money on the elevator down then the stars up.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

The herd is running for the exit. Shorting if that's your game is now it might last 10 days ,3 months or a week. I'm retired and have no interest in shorting. I had a front row seat watching a guy lose 60k in the wrong market shorting.

I do like to read about strategy's.


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## godblsmnymkr (Jul 15, 2015)

james4beach said:


> Lately I do have more spare money, and I still don't put it in stocks. Yes I am aware that the market went up a lot since 2009. "Missing out on the party" is not something that drives my decisions.


lately is not really the best time to be investing in this market with earnings growth plateaued and concerns over china. you missed the time to invest in 2009. 



james4beach said:


> I don't participate because I think the global markets are deeply troubled. Zero interest rates and QE are emergency measures, and I don't want to expose my hard-earned money to these kinds of risks in a market that apparently needs emergency support. It's been 7 years of emergency support now.
> 
> Markets went straight up with central bank stimulus. There is nothing organic or fundamental about that kind of equity rise. It's stimulus-driven... and if the stimulus stops, markets will fall.
> 
> ...


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## jaybee (Nov 28, 2014)

lonewolf said:


> I have been getting a few negative remarks in last few days also of being more or less an idiot, I really do not care I m a big boy I can handle it. Just would like to point out those that are different from the herd are hated esp @ historic market turns. On Friday one of my puts was up 900%, on Monday had a 300% gain on one of my puts, Tues had a 30% up day for one of my puts. In the last few trading days most have been losing money yet the money I have on the table has increased @ its fastest rate since I was on here. ( in the 08 crash I had my best gains ever) In fairness the gains of last few days has pretty well made up for losses shorting a little to early & most likely there will be a strong rally where a lot of the premium gained in last few days is given up. Though I do think we will head down even harder this fall.
> 
> Have also had a few negative comments regarding the use of astrology for playing the market in last few days, First Monday of every month Crawford puts out his market letter. Crawford AKA as wall streets best known astrologer recommended buying puts last Wed for negative planetary alignments going into the weekend that just past. Rarely does Arch recommend options. On Crawfords sight there is a link to an interview where he mentions the recommended puts the interview was done before the mini baby bloodbath.
> 
> Kinda interesting how those that are independent thinkers & do not follow the herd have been getting a bit of hate posts lately & yet they have been performing better then most right near the time they are receiving the hate posts. If you want to fit in do what everyone else is doing


Lonewolf with all due respect, can you please answer this question honestly?

If Arch Crawford is such a genius, why is he not a billionaire?, Why has nobody heard of him? Why does he have a website that looks like it was developed in 1995?

And conversely why are Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Phillip Fisher, Carl Ichan, George Soros, Ben Graham, John Templeton, Prem Watsa, Stephan Jarislowski, and many other investors, household names? It's because they employ strategies that work. 

Do you think they employed financial astrology to accumulate their vast wealth?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

JP Morgan had an astrologer he would often say millionaires do not use astrology billionaires do. Crawford cut his teeth years ago starting out as head technical assistant to Bob Farrel. A few years back in London when Bob Prechtor was asked who had the best track record of anyone he knew (I think the number used was 30 years if memory correct) his answer was Arch Crawford.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

All about Bob:
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/06/robert-prechter-predictions/

"It should be noted that Robert Prechter has projected a major correction in this six-year-plus bull run for stock on several other occasions in the last few years, and has been wrong every time."


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

I have be en a subscriber to Elliott wave international over the years & I have often seen write ups over the years even by brokerage houses that say Robert Prechter is calling for a move in the market a certain direction & it is completely false he is calling for a move in the other direction.


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## Romy (Jan 14, 2015)

If you're sitting on cash, I think it's a good time to tentatively wade into the water. The water will still be turbulent for a couple years. I'd take a long view. If it's money you won't need for 10+ years, I think it's safe and a good entry point to invest in stocks (US and/or Canadian). I generally divide my money into three types -- money I won't need for a decade or longer (goes into equity), money I might need within the next decade (fixed income / hedges), and cash. I did buy into the markets a couple days ago, when they hit rock bottom, and we've had a couple days of gains since, but I'm not yet all in. Still a very bumpy ride.


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## godblsmnymkr (Jul 15, 2015)

lonewolf said:


> JP Morgan had an astrologer he would often say millionaires do not use astrology billionaires do. Crawford cut his teeth years ago starting out as head technical assistant to Bob Farrel. A few years back in London when Bob Prechtor was asked who had the best track record of anyone he knew (I think the number used was 30 years if memory correct) his answer was Arch Crawford.


the fact that you want someone to tell you what to do with your money based on astrology instead of putting in hard work through the traditional sense to find the best place for your investments says a bit about you as an investor. people wanting to have the "stock tip" on what to do instead of putting in their own work is pretty typical. 
if investing was as easy as signing up to a newsletter that bases predictions on stars, everyone would be rich.


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## jaybee (Nov 28, 2014)

^ Wells said!

The fact someone can charge for a newsletter like that it is flabbergasting!


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## Afp (Mar 19, 2013)

Doryman said:


> Here's what I figure.
> 
> If the market crashes for awhile, but recovers, I'll be a guy holding a bundle of stocks that had a hard run and came back. Maybe, I'll lose a few, maybe some won't go back to their peak value but I doubt every one of the large cap stocks I hold will disappear on me. Over the next 3-4 decades, I'll likely be better off than worse.
> 
> ...


Awesome post! I completely agree. Nowadays, I only buy stocks that I intend to keep for the rest of my life. Market goes up or down, close or open, my money working for me 24/7, 365 days per year.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Godblsmnymkr first of all I should have cut and paste your forum name.

Secondly there is absolutely nothing traditional about this market and this is why the bears have been so wrong and the bulls have been right only because they are on the side of where the manipulators want to go. I have heard many professional traders have given up because they don't see any traditional patterns. Now if you look at options, futures and lines in the sand like averages that you think the manipulators are targeting then that kind of investigative work can pay off.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

godblsmnymkr said:


> the fact that you want someone to tell you what to do with your money based on astrology instead of putting in hard work through the traditional sense to find the best place for your investments says a bit about you as an investor. people wanting to have the "stock tip" on what to do instead of putting in their own work is pretty typical.
> if investing was as easy as signing up to a newsletter that bases predictions on stars, everyone would be rich.


 godblsmnymkr have you ever done any scientific research ????????? Or has your ego made you biased thinking your not effected by the earths magnetic field?

The foundation of the study of cycles scientific research indicates there is a link between sun, moon, planetary alignment & stock prices.

The Atlanta fed did research & found there was direct relationship between sun spot activity, electricity in the earths magnetic field that did have an effect on stock prices based on there research. The line of pull from gravity of the alignments effects sunspot activity as well as the amount of electrons & protons in the ionosphere.


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## Doryman (Jul 31, 2013)

Do you have a link to that study?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

When you think about it astrology, climate and so forth have thousands of years of data that could potentially go into it so we can hardly know for sure what they are saying. However I have heard of the full moon seeming to have an effect on people so who knows about the other things if they have some sort of an effect on us.

Looking at the Fed experiment it was started in 1913 and has run as a credit, inflation and debt scheme that seems to need to get larger and larger to sustain itself. Changes are made like linking the dollar to oil taking it off the gold standard and an ever increasing need to flex military muscle to sustain itself in the world. We really don't know yet where this experiment ends, but I think we will be finding out soon, meaning in the next few years.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Where has all the cash gone ???


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

^Thanks for bringing us back on track. 

Mine is still in the bank.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Romy said:


> If you're sitting on cash, I think it's a good time to tentatively wade into the water. The water will still be turbulent for a couple years. I'd take a long view. If it's money you won't need for 10+ years, I think it's safe and a good entry point to invest in stocks (US and/or Canadian). I generally divide my money into three types -- money I won't need for a decade or longer (goes into equity), money I might need within the next decade (fixed income / hedges), and cash. I did buy into the markets a couple days ago, when they hit rock bottom, and we've had a couple days of gains since, but I'm not yet all in. Still a very bumpy ride.


We are in retirement with just gov pensions. If we withdraw at the 4% rule of thumb that some suggest as being safe, we have enough to live on. As a result, I am happy if I can put cash to work at over 4%. Today, I used some of our cash to buy a little PVS.PR.B and a some STB.DB.C. Tried to buy some AFN.DB.A but order expired. 

_May_ add a couple of fixed reset preferreds next week, but although their current yields are good, not so sure about after reset when they will be stuck for another 5years at GOC5+some fixed spread.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Oldroe said:


> James James James now you are market timing. Why do I not believe.


Jame's post does not look like he is market timing. He is talking about waiting for better value. That is not market timing.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Markets went straight up with central bank stimulus. There is nothing organic or fundamental about that kind of equity rise. It's stimulus-driven... and if the stimulus stops, markets will fall.


When markets crash, and/or there is a recession, there is always central bank stimulus. If you continue with that thinking, you will never buy near a bottom. Buy when pessimism is high. 

I agree, pessimism is not apparent yet. 
C


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Pluto the stimulus in 2008-2009 was historically unprecedented. There has never been this degree of central bank support. Politicians even questioned whether the Federal Reserve was breaking the law with some of their measures.

You talk as if the Federal Reserve can do this every time the market needs assistance. Remember, in the last crisis they cut rates from over 5% to 0% and then global central banks pumped several TRILLION $ into the economy.

Are you telling me they're going to do that every time? Is that your investment strategy? You think that once the next crisis occurs, they are going to buy a few more trillion $ worth of securities?

First of all, interest rates are already 0%. So they can't cut rates by several percent as they did this time.

I strongly disagree: central banks cannot do this every time the market is weak. You guys are expecting the central banks to bail out the market every time it drops. I am saying this is impossible: it cannot be done.

A reminder about traditional central bank actions: they cut rates when market turmoil happened, then they raised rates again. This is the cycle that happened in the past. This time we're 7 years after the crisis and the central bank rates are still 0%. This hasn't happened before.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

But we *are* in agreement about buying when pessimism is high. I just don't see the widespread pessimism yet, there is hardly a panic going on.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Ask yourself what is pessimism in a completely rigged market. Gold stocks have been at extremely negative pessimism where they are at zero or near zero bulls and still go down over the last few years. The stock market may go to the same levels of pessimism and still not recover because of the size of the manipulation.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Pluto the stimulus in 2008-2009 was historically unprecedented. There has never been this degree of central bank support. Politicians even questioned whether the Federal Reserve was breaking the law with some of their measures.
> 
> You talk as if the Federal Reserve can do this every time the market needs assistance. Remember, in the last crisis they cut rates from over 5% to 0% and then global central banks pumped several TRILLION $ into the economy.
> 
> ...


When they say it was "unprecedented" are they talking about inflation adjusted dollars? Not adjusting for inflation can make make historical comparisons out of perspective. When I started investing there were always doomsday books out there that over influenced me. Just buy quality protected companies at good prices and hope for the best. I got a strong feeling really good prices are around the corner.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

james4beach said:


> But we *are* in agreement about buying when pessimism is high. I just don't see the widespread pessimism yet, there is hardly a panic going on.


You are right. no where near pessimistic enough yet. Gotta wait until one or two bulls jump off a high building, metaphorically speaking, I hope.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

My Own Advisor said:


> All about Bob:
> http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/06/robert-prechter-predictions/
> 
> "It should be noted that Robert Prechter has projected a major correction in this six-year-plus bull run for stock on several other occasions in the last few years, and has been wrong every time."











He nailed this one


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

Pluto said:


> Jame's post does not look like he is market timing. He is talking about waiting for better value. That is not market timing.


This is correct. The essential difference is that "market timing" means trying to predict other peoples' behaviour, i.e. the direction of the market. 

Buying stocks when they're at low valuations or sellign at high valuations is not market timing, because it's often done with the acceptance that things could keep going in the wrong direction for a long time. The value investor says, "I don't care what the market does for the next year. I'm buying cheap equities." When the financial crisis happened, and a bunch of value investors went out there and loaded up on stocks trading at minus 3 standard deviation type valuations. Thinking that they're "market timers" entirely misses the point.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> View attachment 5577
> 
> 
> He nailed this one


wolfie, he (and you) make so many predictions that simply by virtue of talking a lot are bound to get something right sooner or later .... 

voluminous predictive output is the cornerstone of prognosticative pseudo-genius

if we were to restrict prechter, gartman, faber, rogers, armstrong and all the rest of the stock touts to say, 3 predictions a year, their newsletters would go broke because they would all fail so miserably that it would be impossible to miss their thumping lack of skill


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

fatcat said:


> voluminous predictive output is the cornerstone of prognosticative pseudo-genius


Well said!


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