# Who is gonna be the next Amazon, Google, facebook or Apple?



## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

Lots of things happening on the tech front. AI, Biotech, Self Driving Car, Robotics, Ubering the Health Industry and a lot more. Tech is no longer a industry; Rather tech is taking over all the industries. Lets try to predict which companies can lead the tech front. The idea here is not to try to catch the next train; But to identify potential trains that will shape up the world. And then after careful analysis build a portfolio around these stocks. Please share your thoughts about interesting tech companies in Canada and US.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

logical said:


> Lots of things happening on the tech front. AI, Biotech, Self Driving Car, Robotics, Ubering the Health Industry and a lot more. Tech is no longer a industry; Rather tech is taking over all the industries. Lets try to predict which companies can lead the tech front. The idea here is not to try to catch the next train; But to identify potential trains that will shape up the world. And then after careful analysis build a portfolio around these stocks. Please share your thoughts about interesting tech companies in Canada and US.


Think wearables.


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## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

indexxx said:


> Think wearables.


Would you like to elaborate a bit more?


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Unicorns are not going public until they already have massive valuations. Uber is still private.


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## leoc2 (Dec 28, 2010)

Any company that champions SELF DRIVING Vehicles


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## lonewolf :) (Sep 13, 2016)

A financial technology company that becomes the major player in the gold or silver based financial service platform


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## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

lonewolf :) said:


> A financial technology company that becomes the major player in the gold or silver based financial service platform


Do you Have any name in your mind. Would you like to elaborate a little more why do you think so?


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## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

Batteries. Alternate energy.

Think Tesla.


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## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

Mortgage u/w said:


> Batteries. Alternate energy.
> 
> Think Tesla.


Tesla's valuation is already 42bn! Where as companies like Ford got market cap like 50bn! Don't you think everthing is already priced in? Or you expect Tesla to takeover car market to a different height. I believe they will face stiff competition from the more stablished car manufacturer once the technology will be generic. Tell me your thoughts in a bit more detail. Will love to be proven wrong.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Mortgage u/w said:


> Batteries. Alternate energy.
> 
> Think Tesla.


I agree. If every home had it's own solar power production and at least one electric car, that would mean a lot of batteries (and less need for central power plants) But they need to become much less expensive, more efficient and easier to recycle. So perhaps not Tesla right now? Perhaps there is someone out there working on a better battery technology?

So far as technology is concerned, the future could be in replacements for silicon (it will soon reach it's limit). There are quite a number of possibilities. But how to invest in them?


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

logical said:


> Tesla's valuation is already 42bn! Where as companies like Ford got market cap like 50bn! Don't you think everthing is already priced in? Or you expect Tesla to takeover car market to a different height. I believe they will face stiff competition from the more stablished car manufacturer once the technology will be generic. Tell me your thoughts in a bit more detail. Will love to be proven wrong.


I guess the hope is that Tesla becomes more than just a car company. They recently changed their name from Tesla Motors to Tesla Inc. I think this would require some kind of durable advantage in battery technology (due to scale). Not sure if that is possible.


Once batteries become cheap enough, they may become fairly disruptive in transportation and in grid management.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

Pot and virtual reality. Its the only thing the will keep people from forgetting technology stole their jobs.


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## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

tygrus said:


> Pot and virtual reality. Its the only thing the will keep people from forgetting technology stole their jobs.


What is Pot? Which companies are working on it?


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## 30seconds (Jan 11, 2014)

Marijuana. I like the thread idea but for OP think about it like this... would you have bought Apple in the 90's, tesla in 2010, Google in 2005?


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

Isnt it weird that govts have been against pot for 100 yrs then all of a sudden its legalized. It is like they want us tuned out.

Remember the conspiracy of heroin entering black neighborhoods in the 60s and 70s by the CIA. Deja Vu except we want everyone addicted now.


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## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

30seconds said:


> Marijuana. I like the thread idea but for OP think about it like this... would you have bought Apple in the 90's, tesla in 2010, Google in 2005?


Ha, Ha! I ignorant I am! I thought Pot is one of those latest and greatest technologies. On a serious note, Trying to do something that I haven't done previously. What you guys think about snapchat? I think it is coming in IPOs shortly.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

tygrus said:


> Isnt it weird that govts have been against pot for 100 yrs then all of a sudden its legalized. It is like they want us tuned out.
> 
> Remember the conspiracy of heroin entering black neighborhoods in the 60s and 70s by the CIA. Deja Vu except we want everyone addicted now.


The ban was always BS and motivated in part by a desire to kill hemp as a source of fibre.


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## lonewolf :) (Sep 13, 2016)

logical said:


> Do you Have any name in your mind. Would you like to elaborate a little more why do you think so?


 Something like gold money can use card to make purchases by using gold & silver in your account


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## 30seconds (Jan 11, 2014)

One of these marijuana companies maybe bigger than some of the latest and greatest tech companies (like snapchat).

Snapchat is developing there product to push more adds. The face recongnition they have now they are trying to develop it to become fully able to detect your surroundings and throw adds up. You're downtown and take a picture with a billboard in the back and use a featured "filter".. itll change what the billboard says. Take a picture in your room with no posters.. up go posters. Essentially create a picture set in a virtual settings with timely placed advertising.

Will this be the next FB? Unlikely. I dont think an alternative to signing up to websites will be to use my snapchat ID like I can do with Google And FB


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## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

30seconds said:


> One of these marijuana companies maybe bigger than some of the latest and greatest tech companies (like snapchat).
> 
> Snapchat is developing there product to push more adds. The face recongnition they have now they are trying to develop it to become fully able to detect your surroundings and throw adds up. You're downtown and take a picture with a billboard in the back and use a featured "filter".. itll change what the billboard says. Take a picture in your room with no posters.. up go posters. Essentially create a picture set in a virtual settings with timely placed advertising.
> 
> Will this be the next FB? Unlikely. I dont think an alternative to signing up to websites will be to use my snapchat ID like I can do with Google And FB


Very good discussion 30Seconds. This is the kind of discussion was my expectation while I was opening the topic.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

tygrus said:


> Isnt it weird that govts have been against pot for 100 yrs then all of a sudden its legalized. It is like they want us tuned out.
> 
> Remember the conspiracy of heroin entering black neighborhoods in the 60s and 70s by the CIA. Deja Vu except we want everyone addicted now.


No, it is not weird at all, because it is not all of a sudden. There has been a very strong and spreading push since the 60's. There is no conspiracy here (unless you are one of those who thinks I am part of it by denouncing it... that's an entirely different discussion.,,). 

The history of lives ruined and opportunities lost for simple possession is long and sad. Shouldn't it be one's right to choose what to put in one's own body, as long as it is not harming another being? That is why it needs to be legal- because of the trail of bloodshed and violence that has built up over the drug trade- same as prohibition was back in the day. 

And just for the record, I don't use pot or anything else, and I personally think it's kind of stupid and selfish to chronically intoxicate yourself. But I'm all for personal freedom and reasonable regulations for something that is fairly innocuous.


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## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

logical said:


> Tesla's valuation is already 42bn! Where as companies like Ford got market cap like 50bn! Don't you think everthing is already priced in? Or you expect Tesla to takeover car market to a different height. I believe they will face stiff competition from the more stablished car manufacturer once the technology will be generic. Tell me your thoughts in a bit more detail. Will love to be proven wrong.


My hunch is Tesla will become the world leader in battery manufacturing and alternate energy. The Tesla car business as you know it today will be worthless or simply sold off to some hungry car manufacturer. Just my opinion.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

One word: PLASTICS. THINK "PLASTIC"
will you think about it?




(that, or maybe weed....)


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

My husband wanted me to buy TESLA at $200 a share I said it was too expensive , I think the battery BIZ is going to be big for them ,other cars will use their technology.


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## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

marina628 said:


> My husband wanted me to buy TESLA at $200 a share I said it was too expensive , I think the battery BIZ is going to be big for them ,other cars will use their technology.


Just because tesla has increased from 200, does not mean that it was cheap at 200. But alternative energy sounds really something promising.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

indexxx said:


> The history of lives ruined and opportunities lost for simple possession is long and sad. Shouldn't it be one's right to choose what to put in one's own body, as long as it is not harming another being? That is why it needs to be legal- because of the trail of bloodshed and violence that has built up over the drug trade- same as prohibition was back in the day.


Unfortunately social ills dont stay behind closed doors. They come out and spread. What people do in their own home I could care less, until it affects me out in the real world. The violence doesnt end as soon as you legalized something. So we dont have mobsters hawking liquor anymore - but what we do have is domestic violence, drunk driving, child abuse, divorce, addiction etc. The same will happen if you legalize pot. More fuel to the fire.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

marina628 said:


> TESLA [...] the battery BIZ is going to be big for them ,other cars will use their technology.


Tesla is mainly a marketing proposition in the battery business. The actual batteries come from Panasonic. Tesla is all about press releases, TV spots, jazzy names and cool designs for products, outrageous predictions for future opportunities -- marketing sizzle. Meanwhile the companies that actually have the foundation technology -- LG, NEC, Matushita, Samsung -- are treated like has-been past-it old-fashioned entities not worthy of our interest.

That's not to say that "investing" in Tesla will not pay off. There's plenty of examples of fashion and hype winning out over practicality. Tesla is working 1,000% to stay on the fashion and hype curve.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

...wanna know what i really think....? SPACE TRAVEL.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

^Not sure that is quite fair. Tesla takes at least some of the credit for their step-change in the scale of Li-ion battery production. There's a reason why Panasonic didn't do it on their own.


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## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

One thing about Tesla is they can think big. When a company struggles to ship 30K cars a year and still aim for largest battery manufacturing facility in the world is making big bet. Big bets might sometime pays off big time, but also comes with big risk.

If we look back in the past, microsoft, google, apple, facebook all had humble beginning. It is hard to announce that we are going to rule the world and then actually doing it is not something we have seen in the past. Lets see whether Tesla can do that.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

andrewf said:


> Tesla takes at least some of the credit for their step-change in the scale of Li-ion battery production.


See, this is where you are uncritically accepting their marketing hype. They certainly CLAIM to have changed the economics. But the actual battery technology in the Tesla is pretty well the same as in the Toyota Prius. The day that Tesla was founded, the Prius had been in production for 5 years and the total sales had been 183,000 vehicles up to that point. That's around as many as Tesla has sold total to date. By the time Tesla sold their first UNIT, Prius sales had been ~2M units. Sales of Prius in 2013 alone was 1.2M units.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

logical said:


> largest battery manufacturing facility in the world


This is another deeply hype-full, grandiose and unsubstantiated claim. The so-called gigafactory will principally assemble 1,000s of commodity laptop batteries produced by Panasonic into the packs that go into the Tesla products. The original manufacture of all of those laptop cells, wherever that happens in China, Japan, Korea etc, is the larger economic activity. Meanwhile East Penn and Exide operate HUGE battery production facilities already. East Penn's facility in Berks County, Pennsylvania is 2 square KM, and that's just one battery manufacturer.


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## internalaudit (Jan 27, 2017)

What do you guys think of Opentext?


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

gardner said:


> Tesla is mainly a marketing proposition in the battery business. The actual batteries come from Panasonic. Tesla is all about press releases, TV spots, jazzy names and cool designs for products, outrageous predictions for future opportunities -- marketing sizzle. Meanwhile the companies that actually have the foundation technology -- LG, NEC, Matushita, Samsung -- are treated like has-been past-it old-fashioned entities not worthy of our interest.
> 
> That's not to say that "investing" in Tesla will not pay off. There's plenty of examples of fashion and hype winning out over practicality. Tesla is working 1,000% to stay on the fashion and hype curve.
> 
> ...


From: http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/26/technology/tesla-gigafactory/


> The batteries themselves are not being made here* yet.* Workers are assembling batteries made in Japan into battery packs that then go into Tesla's Powerwall and Powerpack products.
> *By the end of this year Tesla plans to have its battery partner, Panasonic, making the actual battery cells here.* Panasonic and Tesla will each operate parts of the facility which will exist as a single huge building. Panasonic will make battery cells, and Tesla will assemble those cells into battery packs.


Seems sensible to partner with a company that has the technology to make the cells. I don't know the details, but I seem to recall reading that Tesla will manage the sourcing of materials and manage teh supply chain. But I could be wrong.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Meanwhile Nissan actually does already make ~200,000 30KWh Leaf battery packs (including the cells) per year in Tennessee -- a total capacity of 6.0 GWH/year -- already. Nissan's battery technology (actually NEC's) is arguably more advanced and scalable since it uses cells specifically designed for large applications rather than the smaller cells from commodity electronics.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

gardner said:


> Meanwhile Nissan actually does already make ~200,000 30KWh Leaf battery packs (including the cells) per year in Tennessee -- a total capacity of 6.0 GWH/year -- already. Nissan's battery technology (actually NEC's) is arguably more advanced and scalable since it uses cells specifically designed for large applications rather than the smaller cells from commodity electronics.


Wonder how that compares with the Tesla 2170 battery. It is supposed to be cheaper and have much greater energy density than any other battery out there. This is what they will be making at the Giga Factory. 

https://electrek.co/2016/11/02/tesl...energy-density-cell-world-cheapest-elon-musk/

Competition between Tesla/Panasonic and NEC can only be a good thing. But there are others. Especially LG who apparently have very low battery cost and will be used in Bolt, Audi, smart, and many others. It has also been reported that Nissan are going to give up on battery business and switch to LG. Looks like they may provide major competition for Tesla's gigafactory.

How do we buy shares of LG?


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Miniature nuclear fission generators then mini fusion technological sucess.

http://www.computerworld.com/articl...rk-edges-closer-to-an-arc-fusion-reactor.html

Batteries are so 2016.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

gardner said:


> See, this is where you are uncritically accepting their marketing hype. They certainly CLAIM to have changed the economics. But the actual battery technology in the Tesla is pretty well the same as in the Toyota Prius. The day that Tesla was founded, the Prius had been in production for 5 years and the total sales had been 183,000 vehicles up to that point. That's around as many as Tesla has sold total to date. By the time Tesla sold their first UNIT, Prius sales had been ~2M units. Sales of Prius in 2013 alone was 1.2M units.


'Pretty well' covers a lot of wiggle room. My research indicates that the Prius has a small number of NiMH cells. Tesla uses a much larger number of commodity Lithium ion cells.

http://www.hybridcars.com/hybrid-car-battery/

The Prius range had 493k unit sales globally in 2013.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius#Sales


Skepticism is fine, but let's not make things up. If you are going to be throwing out more assertions, please start sourcing them. I scratched at two and they didn't pass muster.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

andrewf said:


> Skepticism is fine, but let's not make things up. If you are going to be throwing out more assertions, please start sourcing them. I scratched at two and they didn't pass muster.


Comparing Prius Hybrid with NiMH battery with a Tesla (or any other) EV with Lithium Ion battery is like comparing apples and oranges. 

Quite different batteries designed for different purposes. For example, the original Prius NiMH batteries had a capacity of about 1.2KWh and were intended to just provide supplemental power to a gas engine while a Tesla S Li-Ion battery is 50-80X larger in capacity (but not size). They are in 60-100 Kwh range and intended to provide all the power the car needs for 200-300 miles. The more recent Plug in Prius with 4.4kw battery will only last for 11-14 miles and still relies on an IC engine.

Not sure what gardner has against Tesla. Both Toyota and Tesla are fine innovative companies and their vehicles are excellent but in quite different markets.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

agent99 said:


> what gardner has against Tesla


I am only skeptical of what Tesla can actually do, and frustrated with the media's uncritical attention to their unsubstantiated claims.

The Toyota sales figures for their hybrids through 2013 were in this press release. The figures include models other than Prius, but are dominated by Prius and at any rate include approximately the same electrical technology.

http://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/worldwide+toyota+hybrid+sales+top+6+million.htm

The point is not that Prius batteries are identical to those in a Tesla, which of course they are not. Only that Toyota (actually Panasonic again) was years ahead of Tesla in the technology of adapting battery technology to an automotive application, by engineering solutions for scalability, physical, electrical and chemical safety, ruggedness and reliability in a novel application for that type of battery.

Tesla has pots of cash and will inevitably develop some interesting things. Musk is the heir of Steve Jobs' "reality distortion field" superpowers, and I guess people will continue to believe whatever cool thing he claims to be able to pull of. As an investment, maybe there is value in that.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I don't think anyone can deny that Musk is a master of marketing. Musk made a sexy, great car that happens to be electric. Toyota made a hybrid car that was deliberately weird looking so as to limit the target market.

I don't think you can dismiss Tesla as all hype when they are making real, successful products. Model S is crushing the US luxury sedan market. Tesla essentially forced the major auto makers to get serious about making compelling electric vehicles. None of them are really succeeding there, yet. I would say GM is close with the Bolt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-12/tesla-dominates-u-s-luxury-sedan-sales


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Ok, Tesla cars are pretty. So is this a good time to buy TSLA ?


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Dunno, it's pretty richly valued. If you want to bet on Model 3 getting into production on schedule, that is probably weighing on the stock somewhat right now.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

This month I think we'll discover whether TSLA reaches new all time highs. This can be an important technical indicator.


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## Gumball (Dec 22, 2011)

Im not really sold on Tesla,,,,their main source of profit is selling carbon tax credits and to me that's alarming...also their last financial statement they included in their profits refundable deposits on their new low end model.... now having said that I had someone send me a link to Tesla's new roofing shingle replacement which is a solar panel, and that's got me thinking they could have a home run on their hands...just my 2 cents


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## leoc2 (Dec 28, 2010)

Dow chemical is getting out of solar shingle industry

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/dow-chemical-sheds-solar-shingle-business


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

leoc2 said:


> Dow chemical is getting out of solar shingle industry


I don't think they're the only ones to try either.

Dave Jones did a reasonable assessment of the solar roofing claims
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FXy_LQXrs

I think me mentioned other attempts.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

I know you all love Tesla's marketing - This does look impressive if he pulls it off, and he usually does.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...olar-shingles-will-cost-less-than-a-dumb-roof


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

^I think you need to take the "cheaper than a dumb roof" claim with a pinch of salt. Perhaps cheaper than tile/slate, maybe on par with steel, but I can't fathom how it would be as cheap as asphalt shingles, which are dominant in northern climates and are pretty darn cheap by comparison to these alternatives.

Maybe with really low interest rates you can make a case for buying a longer-lived roof. The tiles should last 50 years, no problem. The solar aspect might fail at some point but the glass should still function as a roof.


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

leoc2 said:


> Dow chemical is getting out of solar shingle industry
> 
> https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/dow-chemical-sheds-solar-shingle-business


I expect Tesla will do far better than Dow did. They have a better product. Long term, I doubt solar shingles will be all that popular, though.


You whiny little bitches are hilarious. Tesla is all vaporware... right. lmao!

Remember when electric vehicles would never succeed? There would never be a battery system that is good enough? There is no charging system infrastructure... non-starter, right there.

Tesla created the first desirable electric vehicle.

Tesla is a startup company. Ford has had body styles that have had longer runs than Tesla has been in existence. Tesla now has the lowest 0-60 acceleration of any production car available, bar none.

Tesla single handedly created a viable, national, supercharger network.










Tesla is advancing lithium battery technology. Panasonic has said it's the first time they have ever partnered with another company and had the other company advance the technology.

Tesla has the first self driving car.

Tesla has commoditized grid scale power storage. They weren't the first but they are early and have a platform that is scaling quickly and they are currently pulling away from the pack with the lowest cost storage.

Tesla has an excellent home scale power storage product that fills a significant niche for which there is large demand.

Tesla is scaling their storage products at maximum speed because they cannot meet demand.



Tesla has had some failures, no doubt. Lead acid energy storage... short lived product. Hot swap battery packs on the model S.... short lived service. I'm sure they will have plenty more in the future.

Failures do not define a company. Successes do. Tesla has plenty.

It's interesting to watch them move forward with their plans while a few crabby folks explain how it cannot be done. Two years ago, the electric car would never be accepted by the public. There would be no demand, other than a small group of beardy weirdies. Remember? Now the bitching has moved onto the next unbreakable ceiling.

I don't know if Tesla will take over the world. I don't think they have to. What I do know is that Tesla is a successful company. They are working their way toward profitability.

SolarCity has not been profitable. I believe that one of the reasons Musk wanted to merge the company is because he said SolarCity would start turning a profit in 2016Q4. He said that in August 2016. I think he wants the cashflow from SolarCity for Tesla.

One day in the not too distant future, there will be an epic shift in mindset and it will be difficult to sell gas cars to the public. It will go much like the iPod went. It will start out as a niche product and then, almost overnight, gas cars will be as popular as cassette Walkmans. When that day comes, the companies that succeed will be the ones that can scale with it. They will need a huge battery factory. They will need charging infrastructure.

Now, I'll turn the thread back to you folks so you can continue explaining to us how Tesla hasn't done anything. Please do your best to drive the share price back down to $183 so I can scoop a bunch more stock.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

TomB19 said:


> You whiny little bitches are hilarious. Tesla is all vaporware... right. lmao!


Please tell us about your past successes in tech stocks, I can't wait to learn.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

I tend to agree with TomB19s assessment of Tesla. Amazingly innovative company and Musk has an amazing record of success in many fields. 

However, the future is not so clear when we talk cars. GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Nissan and others are large powerful companies and won't let this upstart wipe out their businesses. They will however, adapt to the new Norm and produce electric cars for the masses. Governments will start to tax electricity for road use. Recharge stations will be everywhere (like parking meters) Maybe Mercedes will buy the Tesla car division and Musk will move on to his next big thing! (Just dreaming out loud  )


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

agent99 said:


> I tend to agree with TomB19s assessment of Tesla. Amazingly innovative company and Musk has an amazing record of success in many fields.


I don't think electric cars are necessarily a slam dunk. There are certainly chances but consider ...

1 litre of diesel has an energy content of 35.8 mJ. One kWh of electricity 3.6 mJ. A litre of diesel is about $1.10 these days. A kWh is about $0.20 delivered here in Ontario.

So buying a mJ of diesel costs $0.0307, a mJ of electricity about $0.05. A diesel engine might be about 25% efficient, an electric motor about 95% times the round trip efficiency of electricity into and out of a battery maybe 80% or system efficiency of 76%. 

Now convert input energy cost per mJ to output energy cost per mJ ... diesel 0.0307/0.25 = $0.1228, electric 0.05/.76 = $0.065. So this first pass analysis tells us electricity is about half the energy cost of diesel. However ...

Diesel has embedded in it all sorts of taxes that electricity does not, ostensibly taxes to pay for road infrastructure. Also, a fair bit of the waste heat in a diesel vehicle is pretty useful 6 months of the year. Adjust for these factors, and the gap narrows considerably.

Now some will argue that a ICE has maintenance costs that an electric motor does not. This is true, but my experience with cars is that the engine maintenance is small potatoes compared to all the other stuff: brakes, suspension, corrosion etc. All these factors are equally present in an electric vehicle. Plus I suspect that replacing the batteries will be quite comparable, if not more expensive that engine/muffler/gas tank etc. costs.

So disregarding the externalities of carbon pricing, there is no obvious economic advantage to electric cars today, or in the near future. There may be one day, but there is not now. The other proof of this is of course the rampant subsidies for electric vehicles in many jurisdictions, including Ontario.

Another thing for consideration is, is it safe to assume car size, shape and usage patterns will remain constant? It is technically feasible today to move a single human in a vehicle with a fuel economy of over 1000MPG if you are willing to drop some assumptions: maximum speed, crash worthiness, passenger comfort, hill climbing. Think a tricycle enclosed in an aerodynamic bubble being driven by a model airplane engine and weighing about 200 pounds. This has existed for decades all over the world by way of 4th year engineering students doing their 4th year project. Indeed yours truly was a member of the Carleton University team back in the day. I think one of the California teams won the gasoline division at over 3000MPG that year.

Imagine if the big companies worked on the above. Every member of a typical family of 4 over the age of 12 or so could have a personal vehicle of > 1000MPG equivalent with a maximum speed say 60 kmh at under $2000/person capital cost easily. No more driving junior all over the place and annual capital and running cost for the fleet of 4 micro cars under half what it costs today for an existing vehicle. No putzing about with mass transit. Think of the increase in road capacity that would result too given vastly smaller vehicles going at 60 kmh maximum speed. The average speed would likely be faster given that we move at what 30kmh on the 401 during peak times.

Or maybe self driving vehicles, presumably vehicles that don't run into things, will remove the 2500 pounds of vehicle that is mostly there for crash worthiness, and we will move around in something bigger than a tricycle, but not the 3000 pounders we are in now.

No, I can imagine future possibilities other than it being a slam dunk that Tesla gets the investing gold medal making 3000 pound electric cars. Then add in future possibilities I can't imagine. In 25 years Tesla may be around doing something interesting and making people much money, but I think the chances of 3000 pound personal electric cars being the norm has a probability under 0.5.

hboy54


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

from a review of Tesla and electric cars:



> there’s a reason scientists aren’t scrambling to write papers evaluating the precise present-day tradeoffs between electric cars and their internal-combustion counterparts. The present is short, and the future is long.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

agent99 said:


> I tend to agree with TomB19s assessment of Tesla. Amazingly innovative company and Musk has an amazing record of success in many fields.
> 
> However, the future is not so clear when we talk cars. GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Nissan and others are large powerful companies and won't let this upstart wipe out their businesses. They will however, adapt to the new Norm and produce electric cars for the masses. Governments will start to tax electricity for road use. Recharge stations will be everywhere (like parking meters) Maybe Mercedes will buy the Tesla car division and Musk will move on to his next big thing! (Just dreaming out loud  )


I don't know how govt could feasibly tax electricity for road use. I see it being more likely that there will be vehicle registration taxes based on mileage driven.

TSLA, at current valuations is a 'bet the company' acquisition for Daimler. I would not recommend it when it is almost assured that Tesla would turn to ashes in their hands. That's just the nature of big old companies buying new innovative upstarts. It's a strategy for killing competitors, not creating value.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

hboy54 said:


> I don't think electric cars are necessarily a slam dunk. There are certainly chances but consider ...
> 
> 1 litre of diesel has an energy content of 35.8 mJ. One kWh of electricity 3.6 mJ. A litre of diesel is about $1.10 these days. A kWh is about $0.20 delivered here in Ontario.
> 
> ...


Many European jurisdictions are looking at discouraging diesel cars due to their contribution to poor local air quality. Yes, they are more efficient than gas for CO2 emissions but they emit more particulates and smog-causing pollution. These pollutants kill tens of thousands every year.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

andrewf said:


> I don't know how govt could feasibly tax electricity for road use. I see it being more likely that there will be vehicle registration taxes based on mileage driven.
> 
> TSLA, at current valuations is a 'bet the company' acquisition for Daimler. I would not recommend it when it is almost assured that Tesla would turn to ashes in their hands. That's just the nature of big old companies buying new innovative upstarts. It's a strategy for killing competitors, not creating value.


Couple of points. 

Governments could be municipal, provincial or federal. I could see municipalities putting in charging stations just like parking meters and collect that way. So far as provinces are concerned, we could be required to have separate meters on power to home and commercial charging stations. People could cheat on those but so could they by using home heating fuel as diesel fuel and that doesn't seem a problem.

Regarding Daimler - In 2009 Daimler owned 10% of Tesla. They have also used Tesla's batteries in their all-electric B-Class. Some parts of Teslas are made by Mercedes Benz or their suppliers. However, Daimler sold their shares and are now going their own way in developing hybrid and electric cars. They are probably still hurting from their Chrysler takeover. So I don't see it happening again either. But you never know - they don't need another luxury car competitor.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Government mandated dual electric meters (this is a multi-billion $ investment) that could be defeated with an extension cord is not a feasible solution. I honestly think we'll end up with a tax/km driven on vehicle registration that replaces fuel excise taxes.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

andrewf said:


> Government mandated dual electric meters (this is a multi-billion $ investment) that could be defeated with an extension cord is not a feasible solution. I honestly think we'll end up with a tax/km driven on vehicle registration that replaces fuel excise taxes.


You 'may' be right, but you know - you come across as a know-it-all. This is a forum for DISCUSSION of ideas. Not insisting our own idea is the right one. Think about it.

I personally have no idea how governments will eventually tax electric cars. But I do know that right now they will GIVE us tax money if we buy an electric car. $14,000 for a Bolt in Ontario. So taxing electricity for charging is probably a long way off.


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## logical (Feb 3, 2017)

Tesla seems to be the most likely candidate to join into the league of Giants. In the mean time I was trying to look into some lesser known companies that promises something extra ordinary. And this company named Twilio came into my sight. It develops some kind of communication APIs that helps build interesting messaging and communication apps. They were listed since June 2016 only. And in this short period, they have big names into their client lists. Their clients include Coca Cola, Uber, Tesla, Netflix, AirBnB, NordStorm, Walmart, Ebay and many other big names.

I would like to know if you are aware of this company, what is your opinion about the future of this company.


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

I am a Tesla fan boy but I certainly don't see Tesla as a slam dunk. The odds of a major mis-step are high, particularly at their growth rate. ... I just think Tesla has really gotten it right. They have achieved a lot.

The idea that "GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Nissan and others" can make electric cars too is an idea for people who don't get it. Look... this other company has a car with an electric motor and some batteries. It's the same as a Tesla.

Electric cars take a long time to charge. A Tesla at a Supercharger can get to 80% charge in 20~30 minutes, depending on the size of the battery pack. Tesla can triple the power at the Superchargers but it will come at the cost of battery pack longevity. ... for now, we can safe charge in 20~30 minutes.

What about your "GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Nissan and others"? How are you charging those? How fast?

EVgo opened a high power charging station in December in the US. Let's say you have a car that can use that station. By the way, what car would that be? OK, for the sake of argument, let's say someone other than Tesla makes a car that can take the current. Your car will have a smaller battery than a Tesla so let's say you can charge in 20 minutes. What are you going to do in that 20 minutes? Sit there? Are you going to what many Tesla owners have done, that being leave your car at the charger and go for food, shopping, or whatever, blocking that charging stall for hours?

Tesla has implemented a fee for leaving a car parked in a charging space after it's charged. Before they did, it was getting difficult to get a spot.

OK. You wait for 20 minutes in your "GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Nissan and others" car.

Meanwhile, Tesla owners will get out at the door of the restaurant while the car waited in line for a Supercharger, charged itself, and then parked itself. When you're finished your meal, you have the car pick you up at the door and you're on your way. It's not quite the same thing.

The Tesla is an iPod to everyone else's Walkman.

The others will catch up but they have a lot of work to do. Tesla has accomplished something amazing. You can't just snap your fingers and create what Tesla has accomplished, regardless of how much money you throw at it.

I don't know what will come of Tesla. They could become the biggest car maker in the world. They could stop making cars in mass volume, maybe build some boutique cars, and they could turn into a technology provider to other manufacturers. Whatever the case, the seeds Tesla has planted will grow into something amazing, in one form or another.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

TomB19 said:


> Electric cars take a long time to charge. A Tesla at a Supercharger can get to 80% charge in 20~30 minutes, depending on the size of the battery pack. Tesla can triple the power at the Superchargers but it will come at the cost of battery pack longevity. ... for now, we can safe charge in 20~30 minutes.
> 
> What about your "GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Nissan and others"? How are you charging those? How fast?


Out of interest, checked the GM Bolt. 200mile range. But just 25miles per hour of charge or 9hrs for full charge. This with 240V charger at 32Amps (That will require some heavy wiring from a home's electrical panel.) So how does Tesla do it in 20min? The Tesla S charge rate is lower at about 15miles per hour of charging at 32A. The Superchargers however can charge at 170 miles of range in as little as 30 minutes. They apparently do this by using multiple chargers in parallel. But you can't do that at home  More here: https://www.tesla.com/supercharger


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Without significant upgrades to electrical service at home, charging is going to be an inherently slow overnight affair. But capability of rapid charging while taking longer distance trips is how to address range anxiety. Based on what you mention, GM doesn't even seem to be trying to address this.


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

By the way, I own Tesla shares. If Tesla were to split into a car company and a power company, I would keep 100% of my money in the power company. The car company is likely to succeed on some level. The power company would have to really screw up badly in order to not succeed on a huge level.


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