# What are you buying? 2022



## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

nobleea said:


> Took a gamble on MESA after a big drop this morning. Short term hold.


Doubled down on MESA on the premise that omicron will result in short term staffing issues but travel will continue to rebound strongly in to the spring/summer.

Bought some TRP. Also some ETHX for swing, but also FOMO reasons if I'm being honest.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

I put the TFSA money in yesterday and started rebalancing by buying some VDY. I have an order in for ZAG, but missed the morning dip. I may have to calculate a new order tomorrow.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

CHP.UN
FTS (kinda high right now, imo)
CAR.UN
XSP
CGR

Finding it difficult to buy things as everything just seems insane. But alas, I guess that is the result of printing exorbitant amounts of money...


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I put TSFA money CNR ...wife put hers in Intact Financial. (FTS is on a run ya)


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Continued from What are you buying? 2021


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

Unsure. Everything seems ridiculously expensive.


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## Buckwheat (Dec 11, 2021)

COP, FCG, BHP(ADR)


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

VGRO for grandchild's RESP and VEQT for my own TFSA contribution. I have limit orders in place for both.

I had been buying MAW104 (currently 70/30 AA) in the RESP but am starting to buy VGRO this year now that BMOIL has a number of commission free ETFs. I was loathe to pay a $10 commission on a ~$2k purchase in previous years. I will continue to purchase VGRO for another 5 years or so until the parents have enough earning power to fund their own RESP contributions for their child. I will also continue to buy VEQT for my TFSA until I either die or become incompetent.

Very late edit: At my age, KISS principles for investing.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

KMP.UN
CHP.UN


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

I'm having fun.

Bought a new nano cap, NLH
Added to an existing nano cap, VCI
Added to my small caps RAY-A, NWC and ERO


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Rising interest rate period. Financials are the place to be. Best in class with strong exposure to the USA. I already have a strong position in RY so I bought 14k of TD . No Canadian bank has the strong exposure to the USA as TD.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> Rising interest rate period. *Financials* are the place to be.


Everyone keeps repeating this. I got a feeling that it might be different this time.


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## Benting (Dec 21, 2016)

Follow my tradition every January since 2009, put all new contribution in TD, my one stock TFSA.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

Benting said:


> TD, my one stock TFSA.


Kinda risky. Imagine how would that turned out if someone was invested in Deutsche bank since 2009.
has similar earnings, debt and cash as TD. But tenth of market cap.
plus I don’t understand why people are still using big banks for everyday banking, they are not cheap services, no exceptional customer service (try to get a hold on a phone or chat), and everyone is doing banking online anyway. Credit union or small unaffiliated financial institutions (EQ, Wyth, Neo etc) are great and cheaper alternative.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Sold all my utilities and bought MFC, Intact and IA Financial . I figure higher interest rates are coming so a defensive move.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

RY, BCE, T, MFC, FTS, ENB, CHP.UN, KMP.UN

Hopefully they are all lower next week so I can buy more.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

KaeJS said:


> RY, BCE, T, MFC, FTS, ENB, CHP.UN, KMP.UN
> 
> Hopefully they are all lower next week so I can buy more.


Are you with one of those brokerages offering free trades?


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Are you with one of those brokerages offering free trades?


Yes. WealthTrade.


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

Added to CNQ (rebalance)


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

Bought a few shares of new crypto ETF's, ETHY and BTCY. For income.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Started a position in Saputo at 28.39 in my TFSA.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

QSR, CAR.UN


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Added to my position in Unilever at $47.85.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

KaeJS said:


> QSR, CAR.UN


Went heavy into QSR at 70.26 today.
My position is done for that company now.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I'm still rebalancing my portfolio (have to do this across several accounts) so I'll probably be buying more bonds.

Unless I suppose, if stocks fall very sharply then I won't have to!


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> Started a position in Saputo at 28.39 in my TFSA.


Second tranche bought at the previous 52 week low at $27.54 bringing that position up to just under 3%. With yesterday's purchase of UL, my cash position is at just a sliver over 7%. Don't have any more orders in place at the present time.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Bought some ML on the TSXV. Likely (?) to get buy out approval at the end of the month...


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## Gator13 (Jan 5, 2020)

As opposed to adding new positions to our taxable accounts, we decided to increase the minimum amount threshold for existing holdings. So far for 2022 we have added to our holdings of SLF, H, ACO-X & RNW. A continuance of our dividend investing strategy along with a +/- 85% equity & 15% fixed income allocation.

2022 TFSA contributions as well as 2021 distributions were used to purchase more DIR in both TFSA accounts.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

londoncalling said:


> Second tranche bought at the previous 52 week low at $27.54 bringing that position up to just under 3%. With yesterday's purchase of UL, my cash position is at just a sliver over 7%. Don't have any more orders in place at the present time.


Nice.

I was looking at SAP again today but decided against it. I already bought too much at 28.05, so I am going to just hold off and probably kick myself later. This stock has been beat. I wouldn't say it is "deep" value, but it certainly is value.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Well heres the thing...do you have Saputo products in your fridge...I normally do any time I'm in Canada....buy buy buy!


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

Eder said:


> Well heres the thing...do you have Saputo products in your fridge...I normally do any time I'm in Canada....buy buy buy!


I got Beatrice. No Saputo.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Owned by Lactolis a French based company. C'est dommage.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

Eder said:


> Owned by Lactolis a French based company. C'est dommage.


Can’t find a ticker.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

Eder said:


> Well heres the thing...do you have Saputo products in your fridge...I normally do any time I'm in Canada....buy buy buy!


Costco only sells Beatrice, no Saputo. I trust Costco.


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## plasmasnake (Apr 17, 2014)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Costco only sells Beatrice, no Saputo. I trust Costco.


I buy Saputo mozzarella cheese from Costco all the time. Probably region dependent. In fact I didn't even know there was such thing as Beatrice cheese (I've only seen their milk).

Saputo also makes the Armstrong branded cheese sold at Walmart.


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## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

Curious to know....SAP price has been on a downward trend for many years. It has remained stagnant. Although it seems well priced today, what is the expectation? They are doing ok, however, no news of any major growth which will stimulate its value. Dividend acceptable but not great. I've been wanting to start a position for quite some time, but I keep hesitating.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I am wishing I hadn't upped my first bid to 28.39 but that is FOMO at it's best. The stock made some acquisitions years ago which compressed margins and its dividend growth. A lot of its sales are commercial, (think travel and hospitality) which have been hit super hard during the pandemic. I am expecting the next quarterly report to feel Omicron pain. I bought it due to the fact that I was low in consumer staples as well as its diversification into other countries for a long term play. It will likely be some time before we see strong dividend growth but they are yielding about 1% above their 5year average. I do expect longer term for the company to have better dividend growth. I have a bit more cash set aside to buy at $26 ish but be fine with price appreciation getting me to the 3-4% weighting I am seeking.


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

Mortgage u/w said:


> Curious to know....SAP price has been on a downward trend for many years. It has remained stagnant. Although it seems well priced today, what is the expectation? They are doing ok, however, no news of any major growth which will stimulate its value. Dividend acceptable but not great. I've been wanting to start a position for quite some time, but I keep hesitating.


Agreed - it needs a growth catalyst. Otherwise if it gets cheap enough it becomes a value play.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

plasmasnake said:


> I buy Saputo mozzarella cheese from Costco all the time. Probably region dependent. In fact I didn't even know there was such thing as Beatrice cheese (I've only seen their milk).
> 
> Saputo also makes the Armstrong branded cheese sold at Walmart.


Costco: Milk and sour cream are Beatrice. I only buy Gouda cheese and it’s made in Holland.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought positions in FB and Alphabet . They both experienced price declines but the fundamentals remain vibrant. Alphabet has a growing position with its search engine, YouTube , the cloud business and is a leader with emailing and maps It has the chrome business and smartphone technology. Last time I looked at their balance sheet they have a gigantic cash position and virtually no debt.. It has a strong record for growth in revenues and earnings. FB has a very profitable and sticky operation. It ton has a great balance sheet. Between the two they might be the most common used daily service providers for most people in North America.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Imo SAP is having the same problems as Premium Brands etc have...Covid & free government money keeps the herd at home and out of the pizza parlors etc. Wages (production costs) will need to go up to get people to show up to work trimming margins even more. The end of Covid should help this business.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

Added to VT VOO QQQM XEQT


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Majorly speculating here and just bought a February SPY Call at 420 (heh) strike. Thinking it's another quick market scare and bounce back to $450+ in < a couple weeks.

Might be out 2000 bucks, but hopefully I double it instead. _fingers crossed_


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Added to existing holdings in our TFSA's today for *AQN* (wife) & *Telus* (me) with our annual contribution amounts.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Bought bonds (XBB) and some gold (CGL.C) today.

Didn't buy any stocks since they are still above their target weight in my asset allocation, due to massive gains last year.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

james4beach said:


> Bought bonds (XBB) and some gold (CGL.C) today.
> 
> Didn't buy any stocks since they are still above their target weight in my asset allocation, due to massive gains last year.


Any reason you like XBB over any other fund?

I currently use VAB/VBU/VBG for my bonds.
Do you only hold XBB?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

KaeJS said:


> Any reason you like XBB over any other fund?
> 
> I currently use VAB/VBU/VBG for my bonds.
> Do you only hold XBB?


I'm also curious. I usually compare XBB vs VAB vs ZAG but I've read that ZDB is the best in taxable accounts.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

KaeJS said:


> Any reason you like XBB over any other fund?
> 
> I currently use VAB/VBU/VBG for my bonds.
> Do you only hold XBB?


VAB and XBB are basically the same

I hold XBB inside my RRSP. In my non-registered I hold my own portfolio of bonds and GICs.

ZDB would be a good option too in non-reg, and I'm doing the same strategy myself with my individual bonds (discount bonds) plus the GICs.


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## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

Added 120 XIU @ 31.90


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Backed the truck up on some QSR and SU. Very short term as volatility is high.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Nice work on the QSR.

I was a little early at $71.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

I'm sure it will hit $75 again easy


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## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

nathan79 said:


> Added 120 XIU @ 31.90


Added 90 more @ 31.66


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought some more Googl. 2O% growth in revenues and earnings . Outstanding ROE and ROC and 100 billion plus cash on the balance sheet. Its forward PE is in the order of 20. That is pretty close to market PE average. A pile of attractive and diverse operations.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> Googl


Let’s see 
Alphabet 2018 annual EPS was $43.7
2021 $108
share price 2018 $1000
2021 $3000
current $2500 is probably a fair value. But hardly a deal.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Assuming the price in 2018 was fair value but I get the point you are trying to make.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

ARK ... with my monopoly monies since I missed the 2022 Predictions Contest (rats!).


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

CAR.UN this morning at $53.30


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Let’s see
> Alphabet 2018 annual EPS was $43.7
> 2021 $108
> share price 2018 $1000
> ...


what will its EPS be in 2025 ? At a 20% plus growth rate it could be close to 200. At a PE of 20 that would get you a share price of about 4000. With a 100 billion plus in cash they have a lot of capital to invest without borrowing a penny or issuing shares. Gmail, Youtube, Google maps, Android, Google news , Smartphones , third largest cloud business , driverless car technology, robotics and a lot more irons in the fire.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> Gmail, Youtube, Google maps, Android, Google news , Smartphones , third largest cloud business , driverless car technology, robotics and a lot more irons in the fire.


Which of those are you using in everyday life and how much Google is making on you?
I watch youtube occasionally but install AdBlocker (uBlock origin) eliminates all Google advertising (I hate ads). Other than that I don’t seem to use any of those services.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Which of those are you using in everyday life and how much Google is making on you?
> I watch youtube occasionally but install AdBlocker (uBlock origin) eliminates all Google advertising (I hate ads). Other than that I don’t seem to use any of those services.


I use most extensively . Google search, Gmail, Googl news, Google maps , android on my smartphone and google play for my favourite apps. When I want to fix things I go to You Tube. I watch lots of documentaries on you tube. I understand that much of their revenue comes from collecting and selling data to advertisers . It is an extremely profitable business and they do better than anyone else. You apparently use some of their services but you don't like them collecting your data and selling it. The vast majority of users don't worry about this. Facebook does the same and they still have billions of users worldwide. Their cloud storage business is used by large enterprises to store and collect data. It is a very lucrative business., Amazon and Microsoft are ahead of Google in this area but they are a very strong third. I use an android phone. World wide their are more android phones then Apple phones. If you are on the internet it is very hard not be in the Alphabet world.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> Google search, Gmail, Googl news, Google maps , android on my smartphone and google play for my favourite app


I use DuckDuckGo because it doesn’t track me, I use ProtonMail (is the world's largest secure email service, developed by CERN and MIT scientists, are open source and protected by Swiss privacy law.), unsure what Google news is, use Garmin for maps, phone isn’t android, also I recommend to use Brave is a privacy-focused browser, which automatically blocks online advertisements and website trackers in its default settings.


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## superunknown (Sep 3, 2018)

Bought some more LSPD.TO


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

superunknown said:


> Bought some more LSPD.TO


You'll shoot your eye out!


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> I use DuckDuckGo because it doesn’t track me, I use ProtonMail (is the world's largest secure email service, developed by CERN and MIT scientists, are open source and protected by Swiss privacy law.), unsure what Google news is, use Garmin for maps, phone isn’t android, also I recommend to use Brave is a privacy-focused browser, which automatically blocks online advertisements and website trackers in its default settings.


you obviously don't like the way they do business and have acted accordingly. That has little or no bearing on the investment rational for owning this stock. People can find reasons from an ethical standpoint to avoid certain stocks. That is their prerogative.


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## superunknown (Sep 3, 2018)

Eder said:


> You'll shoot your eye out!


Well, I agree that it's high risk, and not for everyone. I sold my position a few months ago for a 120% gain. I guess we'll see what happens.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Jk...my wife put her TFSA money into Lightspeed as well.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Amazon , Apple , Microsoft , Tesla only thing I will buy in 2022


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Will be buying more Tamarack Valley and ARC Resources tomorrow. This is a bull market for oil. Many are predicting $100 oil. Most of the oil stocks will be reporting in February. I expect extraordinary numbers . If this type of price holds there will be a lot of oil stocks who will double . I have 6 other oil and gas stocks. I already own these two and am adding to that holding. I think they are what I consider the best of the best. ARC has a lot of gas. May-be a bit of a headway.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Bought some CP.


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## Retiredguy (Jul 24, 2013)

nobleea said:


> Bought some CP.


Ditto @90.90
Initial position - long term hold.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

zinfit said:


> I use most extensively . Google search, Gmail, Googl news, Google maps , android on my smartphone and google play for my favourite apps. When I want to fix things I go to You Tube. I watch lots of documentaries on you tube. I understand that much of their revenue comes from collecting and selling data to advertisers . It is an extremely profitable business and they do better than anyone else. You apparently use some of their services but you don't like them collecting your data and selling it. The vast majority of users don't worry about this. Facebook does the same and they still have billions of users worldwide. Their cloud storage business is used by large enterprises to store and collect data. It is a very lucrative business., Amazon and Microsoft are ahead of Google in this area but they are a very strong third. I use an android phone. World wide their are more android phones then Apple phones. If you are on the internet it is very hard not be in the Alphabet world.


Googl just reported. Revenues and earnings were up 32%. They are now sitting on 140 billion in cash. The stock is up 7% in the after market. Over the long term the stocks that perform are the stocks that can consistently grow their revenues and earnings year on year. Googl has been doing that from day one and they are a big part of the world. There revenues from You tube are now bigger then the revenues for Netflix.


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## Sam Sun (12 mo ago)

Was going to post this in the WCN thread, but rec'd the _"old thread .. start new thread"_ notice, which likely isn't necessary.
Bought Waste Connections (WCN). MorningStar continues to give it a much lower Fair Value Estimate: $102 The only way I see price dropping that much is if the entire market does something similar to 2020 or 2008.
Just a small position (0.5%) because of the high valuation, but some stocks stay expensive forever. Although the dividend is tiny, the 5-year dividend growth rate is something like 16%.


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

zinfit said:


> Bought some more Googl. 2O% growth in revenues and earnings . Outstanding ROE and ROC and 100 billion plus cash on the balance sheet. Its forward PE is in the order of 20. That is pretty close to market PE average. A pile of attractive and diverse operations.


You nailed it. Congrats.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

zinfit said:


> Googl just reported. Revenues and earnings were up 32%. They are now sitting on 140 billion in cash. The stock is up 7% in the after market. Over the long term the stocks that perform are the stocks that can consistently grow their revenues and earnings year on year. Googl has been doing that from day one and they are a big part of the world. There revenues from You tube are now bigger then the revenues for Netflix.


I got my 5 shares for $1000 each. But wish it was 50 shares, oops.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Just put in the $6000 to my TFSA. Split between XIU and QQQ.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

peterk said:


> Just put in the $6000 to my TFSA. Split between XIU and QQQ.


Buying something that went up 25% last year? Looks like classic chasing returns trap.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

I suppose, but it's down 10% now, my ACB is in the low $200s, and it's only $3000 more (1/2 TFSA contribution)...meh.

Smart people have been talking about how tech stocks (and all stocks) are about to crash for literally 10 years straight now...

Growth stocks in a TFSA are the best place for them (theoretically) and QQQ is very low dividend as well, making it tax efficient there vs. something like VTI, which I have in RRSP.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Buying something that went up 25% last year? Looks like classic chasing returns trap.


a lot better strategy then chasing losers


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

zinfit said:


> a lot better strategy then chasing losers


Yeah I agree. I made this mistake when I started investing in stocks: thought it was a good idea to buy the most depressed, weakest stocks I could find.

But it turns out that strong stocks are usually strong for a reason: business is good. So one is better off investing in companies that have good histories of profitability and good stock performance. For example, I'm confident that CN Rail is a better investment than Sherritt International.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Just bought 10 little shares of SPOT for $165, with the hope to cash out quick if it bounces back to >$200.

My prediction - Rogan won't be fired nor will he bail to another platform, he's gonna be a Company Man on this one.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

james4beach said:


> But it turns out that strong stocks are usually strong for a reason: business is good. So one is better off investing in companies that have good histories of profitability and good stock performance. For example, I'm confident that CN Rail is a better investment than Sherritt International.


Funny I haven't thought of Sherritt forever... Was one of the first stocks I bought in ~2010 why? I couldn't tell you, "metals mining" I suppose. I don't remember when I sold it or for how much, hopefully more than $1 lol. 

A good learning experience... small-mid caps are not a good place to be. Especially picking stocks there. I know in my family there's a history of picking small cap stocks and losing all your money. Glad I smartened up in my 20s about that instead of my 50s.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Added to 3M:US Bringing it up to approximate weighting of 3.25% of equity portfolio. I recently added cash to my RRSP that will be the bulk of the 2022 contribution. As a result have more dry powder available should a buying opportunity present itself. Looking to make another buy or two between now and April.


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

Bought a few shares of cnr when it was at $150. Hoping that the interest rate increase may lower stocks valuations and I'll pick up some more cnr.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Bought another tranche of Manulife (MFC.TO) at 26.93 to top up to just over 3% weighting total equity. Have an order in for SBUX as well.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> Googl just reported. Revenues and earnings were up 32%. They are now sitting on 140 billion in cash. The stock is up 7% in the after market. Over the long term the stocks that perform are the stocks that can consistently grow their revenues and earnings year on year. Googl has been doing that from day one and they are a big part of the world. There revenues from You tube are now bigger then the revenues for Netflix.


Market is not convinced.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Market is not convinced.


I can tell you are a short term investor. Comeback in 5 years and we can debate. Warren Buffet said in the short term the market is a voting machine over the long term it is a weighting machine. IN the long term the things that make a difference is growth in earnings and revenues, debt levels, earnings and other fundamentals. I have seen Amazon,Apple and Googl had short term downward periods. It was short term people who sold in those down terns the smart people were holding and buying. I believe Buffet boght a big chunk of Apple during one of those down periods. My bank research shows 27 buys, 1 hold and no sells with Wall Street top analysts.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

zinfit said:


> I can tell you are a short term investor. Comeback in 5 years and we can debate. Warren Buffet said in the short term the market is a voting machine over the long term it is a weighting machine. IN the long term the things that make a difference is growth in earnings and revenues, debt levels, earnings and other fundamentals. I have seen Amazon,Apple and Googl had short term downward periods. It was short term people who sold in those down terns the smart people were holding and buying. I believe Buffet boght a big chunk of Apple during one of those down periods. My bank research shows 27 buys, 1 hold and no sells with Wall Street top analysts.


Well said (coming from a short term investor myself).


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

zinfit said:


> I can tell you are a short term investor. Comeback in 5 years and we can debate. Warren Buffet said in the short term the market is a voting machine over the long term it is a weighting machine. IN the long term the things that make a difference is growth in earnings and revenues, debt levels, earnings and other fundamentals. I have seen Amazon,Apple and Googl had short term downward periods. It was short term people who sold in those down terns the smart people were holding and buying. I believe Buffet boght a big chunk of Apple during one of those down periods. My bank research shows 27 buys, 1 hold and no sells with Wall Street top analysts.


Also bought some today.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> Comeback in 5 years and we can debate.





zinfit said:


> I have seen Amazon,Apple and Googl had short term downward periods.


I expect all those three to get back to pre pandemic levels plus inflation, perhaps this year or next. Raising interest rates never been good for technology. If we can call “technology” internet search engine, video host, book store, and cell phone designer (Apple designed phone is made in China).


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Bought some more SU in RRSP and TD in TFSA.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Initiated a position in SBUX today. Order filled at 92.35 yet daily low is 92.36 and I set my order for 92.36. Don't care about the penny just found it odd.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> I expect all those three to get back to pre pandemic levels plus inflation, perhaps this year or next. Raising interest rates never been good for technology. If we can call “technology” internet search engine, video host, book store, and cell phone designer (Apple designed phone is made in China).


you have forgotten a few things like Android, Chrome, You tube, the cloud storage business, self driving technology, robotics, PIxel, gaming , For MIcrosoft ,Amazon and Googl their fastest growth area and most profitable in terms of profit margins is the cloud storage operations. They must be doing something right Googl, Microsoft and Apple all have in excess of 160 billion dollars of cash. Amazon is a laggard with only a 100 billion. BY any reasonable measurement they have and continue to be very successfull and innovative business operations. They are temporally out of favor because of market psychology and not because of fundamentals. That will come to pass because capitalism and the market likes a thing called profits.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> Initiated a position in SBUX today. Order filled at 92.35 yet daily low is 92.36 and I set my order for 92.36. Don't care about the penny just found it odd.


Bought the second tranche today at 89.60. Almost 30% off 52 week high.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

londoncalling said:


> Bought the second tranche today at 89.60. Almost 30% off 52 week high.


May I ask what's so attractive with this stock (just curious).


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Certainly.



londoncalling said:


> I see some immediate supply chain issues and they will experience labour supply and wage growth constraints but they should be able to pass those costs on to customers. Of course the stock wasn't included in my list above because it is consumer discretionary and have a ton of employees unlike other stocks and sectors. However, I feel that share price appreciated and fell with the Nasdaq. It does have more debt than I would prefer but everything else tells me it's oversold.


I like that this company has great consumer brand recognition globally. Although it is consumer discretionary most people still will splurge for a coffee almost daily so it should be somewhat protected in good economies and bad. Although historic returns are not a guarantee of future returns it has a stable history of paying and increasing dividends. Although I don't foresee double digit increases going forward there is a high probability of single digit annual increases with its current payout ratio of 50%. I am also shifting my portfolio to companies with a lower payout ratio than I currently hold. I would prefer that the company pays down its debt over dividend growth over the next while especially with the upcoming rising rate environment. 

I am currently sitting on more cash than my target allocation and when that happens I tend to buy stocks that are on my watchlist. I have a hard time sitting on cash. I do expect Canadian markets to do better than the US over the next while but I find it harder to find as international operating companies in this sector listed on the TSX vs the NYSE/Nasdaq. A lot of my Canadian holdings are in Financials, Utilities, Reits, and Materials. 

There are certainly some risks with the stock and I am likely a bit early. I tend to set my second tranche orders a little tight as well (FOMO). I do plan to hold longer term.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Looks like it's time to go shopping for some commission-free ETFs and/or more bargain-priced stocks.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Purchased 1/2 position of SU.TO at 36.62 and topped up my position in LYG:US today at 2.43. Cash position now down to 12%.


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Well looking at broad markets, the gold market, the energy market, and some financials. My bottom line is they have to be cheap or I'm out. Really like MFC but want a pull back. Broad markets and oil/oil stocks too rich for my blood. In an age of global recessions I don't see why oil is at these levels. Hoping for a pull back. I see gold as moderately bullish medium term, but sitting on the fence short term. I've never been convinced that gold is a safety from world crisis'. But might reconsider that with the Ukraine. Surely Biden is not serious about going to toe with Putin - is he? If he is I will stock back up on gold. So for NOW, as much as cash as possible.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Bought some AC on Thursday's dip. Short term hold.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

Bought more ZEM and ZCH last week.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I kind of want to buy something, but looking at my whole portfolio I see that everything is well balanced at the moment. Stocks & bonds at their target allocations.

I think I'll wait for some more volatility and for the portfolio to get out of whack. Then I can buy more of whatever asset is depressed. In recent months I bought bonds and gold.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Bought CNQ.TO at 72.34 based on its earning report today.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

A few days ago, I ended up with some spare cash due to a bunch of simultaneous dividend payments. Every dividend is equivalent to selling off some stock, so this reduced my equity holdings; they are forced withdrawals, unless one DRIPs.

To remain fully invested, I used that cash to buy HUC ... Horizons Crude Oil ETF.

I posted my reasoning here. I intend to hold this for about a year, maybe longer.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

james4beach said:


> Every dividend is equivalent to selling off some stock, so this reduced my equity holdings


Well, that's a sound bite. I think it would be more accurate to say that it split your total equity return between the equity growth and the cash yield of your investment since total return of dividend stocks is a combination of the equity growth and the dividend return. 

There actually may be an overall gain realized if you re-invest that dividend cash into a higher growth security. Who knows? You might spend that cash on hamburgers and so that portion of the total combined return is lost, but you can't say that you have absolutely reduced your equity holdings. 

Myself, I appreciate companies drawing a portion of the return out to allow me to better invest it since blue chip companies have problems with making better use of that cash. Many of the companies that pay dividends are blue chip and just don't have the ability to re-invest all the cash they generate and so find it's better to allow the investor to do so, rather than pass that excess cash onto employee bonuses or whatever. The eventual overall equity holding in your hands will be far better than it would have been in the companie's coffers.

ltr


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

like_to_retire said:


> The eventual overall equity holding in your hands will be far better than it would have been in the companie's coffers.


I guess I just have more faith that the companies could earn a better return with that money. I wish I could leave it invested, myself. But I suppose it gives me more options when they pay it out to me, and options are good for flexibility.

e.g. take it as a withdrawal, or rebalance the portfolio, etc.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought more Enerplus, Baytex and Tamarack Valley. Everything is in line for the oil and gas sector. I like the narrative for these stocks. Enerplus has a very strong position in the Bakken and the other two have very rich production in the clearwater formation with more wells coming on. It is really hard to go against the trend.


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

The buy high, sell higher crowd is starting to show up in the oil and gas space. The early ones are probably safe and will likely have an opportunity to get out with a gain. Also likely that at some time between tomorrow and five years out, we will be able to look back and say in hindsight "that was the high point".


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> Bought the second tranche today at 89.60. Almost 30% off 52 week high.


Order filled for the 3rd and final tranche of SBUX at 85.73. Cash position now around 9%.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

hboy54 said:


> The buy high, sell higher crowd is starting to show up in the oil and gas space. The early ones are probably safe and will likely have an opportunity to get out with a gain. Also likely that at some time between tomorrow and five years out, we will be able to look back and say in hindsight "that was the high point".


Maybe you can convince @larry81 a bit. I've been suggesting he gradually scales out of that $3 million XEG position.

Easy come, easy go.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Bought some Perpetual Energy today (PMT on toronto). Small cap producer which has been trading at 0.6P/E and this year will probably under 0.5P/E. Hoping the market will find it while the oil price is crazy.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Bought some ARE.TO @ 15.67
Small position, 1% of my port.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

nobleea said:


> Bought some Perpetual Energy today (PMT on toronto). Small cap


_Small cap_, you mean *nano* cap, the smallest cap category (<$50M). Didn't know you were into nano caps.

There's definitely money to be made in that realm due to the inefficiency of the pricing and the lack of institutional investors.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

KaeJS said:


> Bought some ARE.TO @ 15.67
> Small position, 1% of my port.


I am looking at ARE as a replacement for BDT. I need to update my portfolio allocation as I have went on a bit of a buying spree as of late. I believe I am fully weighted to industrials but it is entirely rails and transportation. Would also consider waste management companies in this space. The US markets are approaching bear territory, and Canada would likely be there without oil and mining. Trying not to run out of powder but it is tempting when I see share price drops of 5% and the US markets on the cusp of a bear. I have to remind myself that this pullback will likely last longer than the one in March of 2020. May wait for the next quarterly before I commit to this one.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Bought some magna. God save my soul.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

james4beach said:


> Maybe you can convince @larry81 a bit. I've been suggesting he gradually scales out of that $3 million XEG position.
> 
> Easy come, easy go.


3.4M as of today


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

larry81 said:


> 3.4M as of today


What is your book value? Is it in non registered account?


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

james4beach said:


> Maybe you can convince @larry81 a bit. I've been suggesting he gradually scales out of that $3 million XEG position.
> 
> Easy come, easy go.


I am in no position to tell Larry anything. Pretty sure I have more energy than he does.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Book value is 1M, this is non-reg account


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

larry81 said:


> 3.4M as of today


Dang son.

What's your endgame ?

Can you give me a 5 minute lead before you hit the sell button?


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

fstamand said:


> Dang son.
> 
> What's your endgame ?
> 
> Can you give me a 5 minute lead before you hit the sell button?


Hehe, not sure about the endgame. Holding my XEG position has made the current market downturn much more tolerable !

That being said, I also believe there is much more upside left in canadian oil producers.


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## Sam Sun (12 mo ago)

Added to TFI International (TFII) aka TransForce.
Average cost now $126.87









TFII.TO - TFI International Inc.


SharpChart from StockCharts.com




schrts.co


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Small cap BOS.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

More ZEM Emerging Markets and ZCH China Equity Index ETFs this week.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

fstamand said:


> Bought some magna. God save my soul.


I sniffed...but didn't bite.
Made a nice chunk off MG awhile ago...wondered if I should push my luck, again...


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

jargey3000 said:


> I sniffed...but didn't bite.
> Made a nice chunk off MG awhile ago...wondered if I should push my luck, again...


It's gambling for sure, but if you look at the graph it should convince you.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Just been adding little bits from dividend cash received to buy more ETFs.
VTI in RRSP and XIU in TFSA.


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## the_apprentice (Jan 31, 2013)

Bought Magna today.


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## Raggedy Dandy (Mar 12, 2020)

the_apprentice said:


> Bought Magna today.


Started a position in MG this week as well, after closing my position in ITP after the announcement.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

I too added to my MG holdings.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

not sure about the rational for MG. It has plants in Russia which they have suspended. The auto companies have serios supply change issues which is slowing down production and driving up prices. If EVs take off the parts required are significantly reduced . There are a lot less parts in a EV. May-be someone can make a case for buying this stock given the onbvious headwinds.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

zinfit said:


> not sure about the rational for MG


Probably best to go into it on the MG thread: magna (MG toronto; MG ny)

The buying opportunity is due to the shutdown of Russian manufacturing, but some feel that the market's overreacted on that. As regards their ongoing business -- last time I sat in an electric car it had an interior, seats, a body, steering, windows, lights, control modules -- a whole laundry list of generic car stuff that Magna makes. I don't see an issue with Magna keeping on with that stuff.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

gardner said:


> Probably best to go into it on the MG thread: magna (MG toronto; MG ny)
> 
> The buying opportunity is due to the shutdown of Russian manufacturing, but some feel that the market's overreacted on that. As regards their ongoing business -- last time I sat in an electric car it had an interior, seats, a body, steering, windows, lights, control modules -- a whole laundry list of generic car stuff that Magna makes. I don't see an issue with Magna keeping on with that stuff.


you might be right but given the history of the auto sector I figure there are better opportunities in other sectors I can find stocks with much superior fundamentals that have been out of favour in the current market. Over the long term fundamentals make a difference.


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## R. Austin (May 16, 2020)

Bought some MJ with play-money in the hopes and prayers that one day it gets federally legalized in the US. Other than that just doubling down on VGRO for the long haul.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Added to CNQ today at 73.71.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

londoncalling said:


> Added to CNQ today at 73.71.


You think it's going up for another run? (It could)


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I think oil companies do have more room to go in the short to medium term. I think oil prices got ahead of themselves and we may see more downside in the near term. As such I swapped out my Suncor holding for more CNQ. CNQ will continue to reward shareholders through dividend increases and buybacks. I still expect travel to pick up in North America this summer and that should help consumption. WTI may have got ahead of itself on price but there is still not an abundance of supply.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

londoncalling said:


> I think oil companies do have more room to go in the short to medium term. I think oil prices got ahead of themselves and we may see more downside in the near term. As such I swapped out my Suncor holding for more CNQ. CNQ will continue to reward shareholders through dividend increases and buybacks. I still expect travel to pick up in North America this summer and that should help consumption. WTI may have got ahead of itself on price but there is still not an abundance of supply.


At $80 oil most of the oil producers will be extremely profitable and will have an extreme over abundance of cash. I think 125 dollar oil was a short term thing. I think an average of 90 over the next 6 months is a reasonable projection. There will be a lot of big shareholder payments and share buybacks . I expect June will an interesting month as a pile of these companies report in that month. Patience is your friend right now.


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

I really don't like over paying for stocks. That's my problem. Bought a small position in ABX. Sold it all last week. My preference is still cash.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Have sold some property and have about 45k which can be placed in our TFSAs . Will divide 4 ways among Microsoft, Googl , CP Rail and Enbridge-PR-C . Te fundamentals and outlook for the two tech stocks are compelling . CP will have a great network once they complete the purchase of KC Southern. The Enbridge preferred is trading around $19 with a 5.8% dividend. It resets in March of 2023. With interest rates on the rise the reset yield should be strong. If ENB decides to redeem the shares I won't complain. Given the current market conditions I almost consider this PR a fixed income with an outstanding yield.


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## undersc0re (Oct 7, 2017)

Would like to add semiconductors stocks to my portfolio this year, anyone have names of Canadian etfs holding a majority of stocks as semiconductor? Not concerned about dividends on these. Thx!


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Have a look at this one:

Horizons ETFs - CHPS


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Bought some more boring old VCNS in my wife's RRSP. Hopefully I found a bottom this time... bonds are getting hammered. YTM on these bond funds is up to ~3% now.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Deployed about a 1/4 of my proceeds of ITP.TO into an initial purchase of JWEL.TO today at 34.88. The stock has a good payout ratio and should be able to continue increasing dividends at a rate in the teens over the next while. Have a second order ready to go to bring to a full position.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

My portfolio seems to be a lot less exciting than other peoples'. Despite all these market fluctuations, I'm more or less still on my asset allocation targets.

That means I'm not allowed to buy stocks. I'm already at my maximum equity allocation. However I'm considering making some adjustments to my momentum stocks.

Even my momentum/growth stocks have been boring... tracking XIC so far.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

I find the whole market boring at the moment.

I mean, when stocks go up, I'm excited because of the gains and when stocks go down, I'm excited because of the opportunities, but when stocks go nowhere it's pretty boring.

Anyways, the whole stock market was in the red today, but my portfolio was in the green. Maybe the most exciting thing today. But that's just meaningless daily moves.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Topped up my position in CNR.TO this morning at 162.10 in my TFSA.


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

londoncalling said:


> Topped up my position in CNR.TO this morning at 162.10 in my TFSA


Isn't cnr a bit pricey right now?


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

@Juggernaut92 I wouldn't say that it is pricey at the moment but certainly not on sale. Certain stocks rarely come on sale and I consider this one. To reiterate your point once could have been bought in the past 30 days at around 150. I do have trouble holding cash in my portfolio and may be trying to make up for all the years I didn't own Canadian rails.  Our transportation issues are still troubled and I don't see them being fixed anytime soon.

Cash target used to be 5-7% but I increased it last year to 8-12%. The recent sale of ITP added a lot of cash (+ 6.5%) to my portfolio and I am struggling to find places to allocate it. Instead of sitting on cash which will be eroded by inflation I decided to add to existing positions. Even with the recent activity noted by @james4beach cash now sits at 13%. I have been quite active this past 6 months and that may not necessarily be a good thing. I have spent the past year re evaluating my investment thesis and have started shifting to lower yielding stocks. My original portfolio was more focused on income generation, more suited to a retiree. I had numerous stocks that had stagnant yields and rising payouts. Covid showed what can happen to those stocks. The impact to portfolio was less noticeable due to several factors 

1) the number of holdings in portfolio
2) their overall weighting 
3) market performance over the past 10 years and especially 2021.

That being said they do need to be removed before they are given a chance to do more damage with a dividend cut and the resulting drop in share price. With rising rates, lower yielding stocks may take a further hit as money flows back into to fixed income. I am more prepared to to take that additional risk.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

undersc0re said:


> Would like to add semiconductors stocks to my portfolio this year, anyone have names of Canadian etfs holding a majority of stocks as semiconductor? Not concerned about dividends on these. Thx!


Horizons ETFs - Horizons ETFs Announces Canada's First Semiconductor ETF 

This is the only one that I know about but I do not follow the space. Perhaps a separate thread on semiconductor etfs will generate more conversation.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Bought some CP


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Benchmark Precious Metals & Skeena Resources. FN Headwinds turn to tailwinds for those with the right tack.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Yeeeeowww!

Added more CAR.UN @ 50.93


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Have 30k to invest in a taxable account. I am looking at stocks that have a decent chance of preserving capital and have some decent dividends. I have decided to TRP, Telus and ENB. PR.D . With any luck these should get me through any stormy waters over the next couple of years. I own BCE and ENB inside our TFSAs . I guess their is some duplication . Diversification is becoming a challenge in this market. There are to many sectors that I am reluctant to invest in given the macro situation. I have been aggressive in buying oil and gas stocks since September. I figure I have moved far enough in that direction.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

zinfit said:


> Diversification is becoming a challenge in this market.


Do you own enough bonds? It's hard to sufficiently diversify by only using stocks, as they are "risk assets". Diversifying into bonds or GICs would give you stronger diversification. Maybe you already own enough of these.

If you don't like the price volatility of bonds, then GICs achieve the same thing with no volatility.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

james4beach said:


> Do you own enough bonds? It's hard to sufficiently diversify by only using stocks, as they are "risk assets". Diversifying into bonds or GICs would give you stronger diversification. Maybe you already own enough of these.
> 
> If you don't like the price volatility of bonds, then GICs achieve the same thing with no volatility.


I have bonds already . I have them laddered over 6 years. When inflation is running at 6 or 7% it is hard to invest in fixed income securities that might yield 2.5% . It is even worse in a taxable account were the interest is fully taxable.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

zinfit said:


> I have bonds already . I have them laddered over 6 years. When inflation is running at 6 or 7% it is hard to invest in fixed income securities that might yield 2.5% . It is even worse in a taxable account were the interest is fully taxable.


Fair enough but just FYI, there are GICs (like Scotia) right now at 3.65%


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

james4beach said:


> Fair enough but just FYI, there are GICs (like Scotia) right now at 3.65%


Do you pay any commission to buy GIC at the discount brokerages?


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

james4beach said:


> Fair enough but just FYI, there are GICs (like Scotia) right now at 3.65%


Still a problem. I figure the real rate of inflation is 7 or 8%. Add in tax on the 3.65% you are looking at losing 4 or 5% every year. Bonds/GICs were a losing proposition in the 1970s and early 1980s when we had hyper inflation. I don't think they are a good investment in this market.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

scorpion_ca said:


> Do you pay any commission to buy GIC at the discount brokerages?


Not with most, if not all, brokerages. There is a commission paid by the issuer to the brokerage to be an order taker but that is not in the sale to the investor. What one sees is what one gets at no extra cost.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

scorpion_ca said:


> Do you pay any commission to buy GIC at the discount brokerages?


Just to clarify, the 3.65% yield is already after the commission since it's baked into the quoted yields. So the investor at iTrade really does get a net 3.65% compounding annually.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Just to clarify, the 3.65% yield is already after the commission since it's baked into the quoted yields. So the investor at iTrade really does get a net 3.65% compounding annually.


 ... I don't have iTrade so I can't verify check it up. Is that rate published as a net rate? If so, then it's after commissions. Otherwise, the 'standard' commissions of .25% is baked into the 3.65% meaning, 3.40 is your actual rate compounded annually if I'm understanding it correctly.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

James and I have both said the advertised rate is what one nets/gets, i.e. 3.65% in this case. None of us care what commission, if any, is paid behind the scenes.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> James and I have both said the advertised rate is what one nets/gets, i.e. 3.65% in this case. None of us care what commission, if any, is paid behind the scenes.


 ... how can the "advertised" rate be "net" then when you get an annual compensation report telling you that you paid such and such amount of trailing commissions (behind the scenes) which aren't for mutual funds? [Besides, isn't that's the purpose of CMR2?]

Whether you care or not about on that measly .25%, there's still no free lunch and to answer scorpion's question.

*Edit*: Okay, I see you provided an answer on the "advertised" "net" rate in your post #160 explaining it's behind the scene from issuer to the broker. But my comment on the annual compensation report along with is there a free lunch still stands.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

It does not necessarily stand since that so called 'one time' commission paid by the issuer to the broker may be the 'administrative' expense associated with executing the order. Brokerages are compensated all the time by issuers for administrative expenses. Think about all the shareholder proxies that are mailed to you by the brokerage for AGMs, or the semi-annual or annual financial reports, or any number of other mailings. The brokerage does not do any of these at its expense. The issuer pays for those administrative expenses.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Then why is there a trailing commission reported on accounts with NO mutual funds held (not even an HISA) but only stocks and GICs? The stocks' trading commissions (buy & sell) are reported seperately, in fact on each month's statement which sums up at the end of the year with that annual compensation report.

What is this "trailing commission" for when there're NO mutual funds in the account? Administrative costs to buy GICs or what? That t.c. # increases each time a GIC is added on the monthly statements.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I know of no situations where a trailing commission is paid on accounts with only stocks, ETFs and GICs and I have never seen any such thing in all my years with Scotia iTrade nor BMO Investorline. If you have experienced that, then some clarification is required. Of the two categories of payments listed in the Annual reports from my brokerages, I have only seen: 1) the one time commissions I have paid directly to buy or sell stocks and ETFs or to purchase bonds, and 2) the trailing commission for ISAs sold under the mutual fund umbrella.

Having said all that, there is a potential issue of double dipping in "% of AUM" accounts if the brokerage has received a one time 'commission' for selling GICs in addition to the % of AUM" fee. That is eloquently explained in these two links Why am I paying a commission when I invest in GICs? - MoneySense and GICs have a hidden commission - Quadrant I don't think OSC or IIROC has latched on to this double dip possibility and for those with "% of AUM" accounts that contain GICs, it is worthy of you challenging them on a possible double dip. Either rebate the GIC commission or do not include GIC assets in the % of AUM calculation.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> I know of no situations where a trailing commission is paid on accounts with only stocks, ETFs and GICs and I have never seen any such thing in all my years with Scotia iTrade nor BMO Investorline. If you have experienced that, then some clarification is required.


 ... have another look at your monthly statement. Under your Year-to-Date Fees Summary, you will see under the category "Payments BMO received from third parties" and boom ... the Trailing Commission listed in CAD. As said, I don't hold mutual funds under that account, only GICs, stocks and one HISA (forgot that). But that is a BMO (yes, mother BMO) HISA. That's not third party is it?



> Of the two categories of payments listed in the Annual reports from my brokerages, I have only seen: 1) the one time commissions I have paid directly to buy or sell stocks and ETFs or to purchase bonds, and 2) the trailing commission for ISAs sold under the mutual fund umbrella.


 ... no brainer on commissions paid for stocks/ETFs trades which is under its own fees categories of Transaction Charges. [The other category is Operating Charges of which I've yet to incurr any - whatever that may be.] I don't own bonds so can't say anything about their "fees".

With CIBC Investor's Edge, it's stated very clear in the YE Account Report with "Fees Paid By Others In Connection With Your Account and Payment From *GIC Issuers* ... *$xxx.xx *" This Year (CAD) aside from the other 2 categories of Operating Fees & Transactions Fees, similar to BMOIL.



> Having said all that, there is a potential issue of double dipping in "% of AUM" accounts if the brokerage has received a one time 'commission' for selling GICs in addition to the % of AUM" fee. That is eloquently explained in these two links Why am I paying a commission when I invest in GICs? - MoneySense and GICs have a hidden commission - Quadrant I don't think OSC or IIROC has latched on to this double dip possibility and for those with "% of AUM" accounts that contain GICs, it is worthy of you challenging them on a possible double dip. Either rebate the GIC commission or do not include GIC assets in the % of AUM calculation.


 ... this is at the discount broker so no % of AUM stuff expected. And yet I can never get an accurate $ calculated so I just "estimate" the commissions charged, expecting it to be approx. .25% of my total GICs values.

*Bottomline: * Having read your links above (thanks) confirms there is no such thing as a free lunch - you do pay .25% commissions that the issuer pays directly to your brokerage. It's net off the rates offered by the discount broker o/w you can get an additional .25% on top of that rate (presumably) if you go directly to the issuer instead.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Beaver101 said:


> ... have another look at your monthly statement. Under your Year-to-Date Fees Summary, you will see under the category "Payments BMO received from third parties" and boom ... the Trailing Commission listed in CAD. As said, I don't hold mutual funds under that account, only GICs, stocks and one HISA (forgot that). But that is a BMO (yes, mother BMO) HISA. That's not third party is it?


Broker ISAs regardless of issuer still pay a trailing commission. That's been crystal clear all along and that will remain the case post-June 1st. If anyone holds ISAs in their brokerage accounts, there will be a trailing commission. And yes, a BMO managed ISA in a BMO Investorline account is a third party ISA. That ISA has nothing to do with BMO Investorline.

.


> *Bottomline: * Having read your links above (thanks) confirms there is no such thing as a free lunch - you do pay .25% commissions that the issuer pays directly to your brokerage. It's net off the rates offered by the discount broker o/w you can get an additional .25% on top of that rate (presumably) if you go directly to the issuer instead.


Maybe yes, maybe no. Generally speaking, GIC rates for GICs through a broker channel are (and have been) generally slightly lower than those issued directly via retail by issuing institutions themselves. An example would be a Home Trust GIC issued through brokerages or GIC broker versus a retail GIC issued by Oaken Financial. But it is not always the case. There a number of recent examples of brokerage channel GICs having yields higher than their retail counterparts, and especially so by the big banks. There is no simple answer for any of this. GIC issuers may prefer promoting their GICs through the brokerage channel sometimes and sometimes through their retail channels. It is THEY that decide what they are willing to pay......when and where.

Examples:

5 year BNS GIC through Scotia iTrade @ 3.65%. One cannot get that at the bank and that has almost always been the case with the big 5 banks. FWIW, BMO and RBC 5 year GICs are 3.6% through Scotia iTrade too so it is not just the BNS parent ones
5 year Equitable Bank GIC through iTrade @ 3.61%. Same GIC retail at EQ Bank @ 3.7% which just increased to that level today.
5 year Home Trust GIC through iTrade @3.55%. Same GIC retail at Oaken Financial @ 3.7% which just increased retroactive to last week from 3.2% a week ago.
There is simply no basis for any of us to make an implied assumption on what a hidden/buried GIC commission is costing us. Maybe something, maybe nothing at all.

Added: BMO IL has exactly, or almost exactly, the same rates for the same issuers.

Added2: I would check RBC Direct Investing now too for a comparison but spouse is not in so cannot access that data


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Maybe I'm biased here, but I think the service provided by the discount brokerages (the GIC inventory) is a good product with excellent value, and low fees in the big scheme of things. Of course there are fees.

My dad still buys GICs the old fashioned way by going directly through a couple banks he uses. I pretty much always get higher yields than him, because I'm able to shop around through the discount brokerage. Sometimes he did get a higher promotion rate but on average I'd say the discount brokerage yields better results, even after fees.

I used to do something similar, largely buying GICs from my credit union. For a stretch of time their rates were always higher than what the brokerage had, but over a span of years I found that this cannot be relied on to always be true. There was a time when Outlook Financial always had superior rates but look today, their 5 year is only 2.80% and I can get 3.65% from a big 5 bank!

On average, I'm confident that I'm getting better rates by going through the discount brokerage, versus my dad's direct bank access and my own direct credit union access. I really think the best way to run a GIC ladder is to use a discount brokerage.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I will add one more thought to this conversation.... In my post #169 examples for Home Capital Group and Equitable Group, the spread between retail and broker channels at 9-15 basis points is less than the commission paid by Home and Equitable to the brokers for the same capital. That means Home and Equitable are willing to pay more on GICs issued through brokers than through their own retail channels. Why would they do that? Let me speculate... 

Reason 1: Home and Equitable don't need to employ CSRs to interact with retail investors and save on costs
Reason 2: Expanding on reason 1, if you spend any time on the thread at CMF focused on GICs and HISA rates, or the similar thread at FWF, or heaven forbid, the crowd at Canadian High Interest Savings Accounts why you, as a business owner, even go there? There is likely nothing more painful (and thus costly) for a FI than the administrative costs of them having to deal with retail investors on a one-on-one basis.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ To be clear, I'm not qualming about the .25% "commissions" paid to the brokerage. 

Like James said, that's the price of convenience aka the (mine) no-free lunch concept of which you get to pick the best rates amongst the competitions. I'm fine with it.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

I figure the next leg in the OIL & Gas bull market will be the oil service companies. I took a 8k position in Ensign Energy on Thursday. In my opinion it is a best in class operator and is run by some of the most astute people in the oil patch. Murray Edwards is the biggest sharehiolder and I believe he is the chairman of the board.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Bought a few ITM calls for PARA on the drop today. I think that content providers are being punished for NFLX subscriber losses and I'm not sure that's reasonable. We'll see, last time it was a short term hold and it worked out.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

For a brief moment contemplated buying DE:US. I get excited when I see daily drops of 5-7%. Down 15% from its very recent 52 week high but nowhere near 52 week low or even the share price back in February. Easy to get distracted by the volatility. Also considered a couple other orders in the commodities space. Hurry up and wait is likely the best thing I can do right now as the hawkish sentiment makes its way through the markets. In reality the overall market hasn't moved far from where it started the year and still up on a 1 year(short term) basis. Lots of earnings reports this week in the tech space which may whipsaw the Nasdaq.


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

May consider buying 1 unit of GOOG in my rrsp either now or next month. Seems like it is at a decent price.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> For a brief moment contemplated buying DE:US. I get excited when I see daily drops of 5-7%. Down 15% from its very recent 52 week high but nowhere near 52 week low or even the share price back in February. Easy to get distracted by the volatility. Also considered a couple other orders in the commodities space. Hurry up and wait is likely the best thing I can do right now as the hawkish sentiment makes its way through the markets. In reality the overall market hasn't moved far from where it started the year and still up on a 1 year(short term) basis. Lots of earnings reports this week in the tech space which may whipsaw the Nasdaq.


And after all that noise the day was also relatively flat. Noise! Noise! Noise!


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Bought some SNC, LSPD, CTC and TD

Hoping for a bounce


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

fstamand said:


> Bought some SNC, LSPD, CTC and TD
> 
> Hoping for a bounce


If there is a bounce it will be short lived. This market is facing a pile of resistance. Lockdowns in China, very troubling supply chain issues, 4 or 5 interest hikes over the next 9 months, shrinking sales and earnings . It is grin and bare time. What is disappointing is even companies with strong and growing earnings are getting negatively effected by this sentiment.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

As I wrote elsewhere, those on margin should be expecting margin calls in the not too distant future. The declines will most likely continue.


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

Picked up some HDIF. Covered call ETF, have it in unreg and RRSP but might re-arrange that later.


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

AltaRed said:


> The declines will most likely continue.


Good time to buy.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Juggernaut92 said:


> Good time to buy.


If you can estimate the near bottom correctly. Of course if you have a very long hold time it's not as important.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

cainvest said:


> If you can estimate the near bottom correctly. Of course if you have a very long hold time it's not as important.


Agreed. In the 2008-2009 crisis, most bottom feeders were buying in Nov-Dec 2008. The bottom was not until March 2009 but that is/was relatively irrelevant over the longer term.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

Juggernaut92 said:


> Good time to buy.


Next ten years might be a good time to buy. No so much good for people in need to sell to fund retirement or pay off heloc.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I keep feeling like buying but my asset allocation won't let me. I'm still overweight equities, so I'm not allowed to buy stocks.

The only thing I'm underweight is fixed income and I have to wait before buying a new GIC for my ladder. That means I can't make any trades right now, really just waiting until it's time to buy another GIC.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

james4beach said:


> I keep feeling like buying but my asset allocation won't let me. I'm still overweight equities, so I'm not allowed to buy stocks.
> 
> The only thing I'm underweight is fixed income and I have to wait before buying a new GIC for my ladder. That means I can't make any trades right now, really just waiting until it's time to buy another GIC.


It's good to stick to your asset allocation. For me cash is above target but has a bit more room before I am at max cash allocation at which point I will be "forced" to buy. I still haven't gotten used to the increased cash position so that desire to buy on days like we've seen this week are even more tempting. 



AltaRed said:


> Agreed. In the 2008-2009 crisis, most bottom feeders were buying in Nov-Dec 2008. The bottom was not until March 2009 but that is/was relatively irrelevant over the longer term.


FOMO works in both directions. For me the financial crisis in 2008 seemed to be a very long and painful time to be in the markets. For context one can go back and review threads here and over at FWF to get the overall feeling of DIY investors. I didn't panic and want to cash out but I did regret deploying my cash too quickly.

The correction in 2020 was a lot quicker but one still had plenty of time to buy if they weren't panicked. The euphoria of 2021's market returns has certainly waned even though we are roughly where we started the year. 3 months of up and down don't mean much in the big scheme of things. We could see a sideways market for years. Sideways and down markets are not good for buy and hold investors.

I cancelled some longer standing orders today. This will prevent me from jumping in too deep too soon if we are going to head into bear territory. Volatility is starting to creep up but nowhere near the levels experienced during those market crashes. 

VIX 33.52 +6.50 +24.06% : CBOE Market Volatility Index - MSN Money

I don't have first hand experience with the bear in the 200s which appears to have taken longer to regain the losses. 

Many are forecasting the next bear(whenever it is)to be a long one. If that is the case, those in accumulation mode will have lots of time to get in on the next bull run. It doesn't bode as well for those at or near retirement if they have gotten accustomed to the market returns of the last decade.

Canada Stock Market Index (TSX) - 2022 Data - 1979-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Tables 13 and 14 of PWL's Financial Planning Assumptions provide one view of future returns. Those with outsized expectations could be in for a rough ride.


----------



## Sam Sun (12 mo ago)

Small addition to Simon Property Group (SPG-us) 20 shares.
Fear in the market doesn't seem to be subsiding.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519321251499716611


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

Sam Sun said:


> Small addition to Simon Property Group (SPG-us) 20 shares.
> Fear in the market doesn't seem to be subsiding.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519321251499716611


Outflow into what? 
it is probably just margin calls


----------



## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

*
Redwood Trust Inc RWT
*


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Initiated a position in ARE.TO today at $14.50. Allocation to Industrials was below target due to poor performance of NFI and sale of BDT. I had an order in for ARE.TO last week for about $1 more that I cancelled.


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## Sam Sun (12 mo ago)

Some days I just want to buy something; I think it's a disease. Don't see anything that I want to buy with conviction, so bought a few shares of Wheaton PM (WPM) - my smallest holding.
If it gets hammered after FOMC today, that should provide relief to the sickness.






TMX Money







money.tmx.com


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Just added to ABX. Watching and waiting on: SAP.TO (to average in to initial posn), and ONEX.TO.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought Bookings[ formerly Priceline] . Its new bookings are through the roof . They are breaking all previous records. I am looking for companies with solid and growing earnings and this fits the bill quite nicely. After 2 years of Covid every second person wants to travel. The US airlines have record bookings.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Added to my position in MFC this morning at $21.95. Not sure if the 10% drop this morning was warranted from the quarterly report yesterday aftermarket.. I understand there will be a slow down from business operations in Asia.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

londoncalling said:


> Added to my position in MFC this morning at $21.95. Not sure if the 10% drop this morning was warranted from the quarterly report yesterday aftermarket.. I understand there will be a slow down from business operations in Asia.


Your post inspired me to nibble.

I also got in at 21.95. Just a tiny bit for me for now.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

KaeJS said:


> Your post inspired me to nibble.
> 
> I also got in at 21.95. Just a tiny bit for me for now.


RBC says the underperformance is a short term happening. This looks like a true value purchase.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

On MFC today too at $21.9. Nice 6% yield there. Would like to see more buybacks.


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Of course what matter is if the world is going into recession like the USA is? MFC relies on Asia doing well economically. But a bit oversold yesterday.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

zinfit said:


> RBC says the underperformance is a short term happening. This looks like a true value purchase.


MFC was in that range less than 6 months ago, not sure it is a value buy right now.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought a couple of USA small cap energy stocks. Ranger Oil and California Resources. Both have really solid NG production and no problems fully optimizing the NG market. Ranger is in the Texas Eagleforde and just reported outstanding results. CA Resources is interesting. They are a leader in CO2 capture. 30% of the electrical power in CA comes from NG. They own a NG power plant right on one of their production locations. There are no pipelines from other states into CA. RBC is very bullish on both. I took a good look at both and I was impressed. The CEO of Ranger was a very senior executive with Encana . NG selling at $7 plus is a licence to print money for good NG producers. Both of these companies have easy and short access to giant sized markets.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

Bought this week - TEC, XAW, XEQT, ZRE and HCLN


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Will be looking at buying two US oil and gas royalties. They look extremely attractive and are paying out a dividend in the 10% range. Their cash flows and income statements fully cover these payouts within very reasonable levels. RBC has great target price upsides for both. Their holdings are large and they are certainly in the right locations. They are Kimbell Royalty and Brigham Minerals. Have done a comparison to Freehold Royalty and imo they are superior to Freehold . RBC Is projecting a 78% upside on one and a 58% upside on the other. With the market conditions as they are I like the idea of reducing risk by getting a 10% dividend. IMO these dividends are quite sustainable and might be increased with the current prices for oil and NG. In many respects the only bull in this market is the energy sector.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Interesting play. I remember looking at FRU during the previous oil bull. I am not sure how much risk is reduced with royalty companies but I believe there would be some. Have you looked at Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ) | TSX Stock Price | TMX Money ? They do not have much history but I have heard they follow a royalty model as well. I haven't done any research.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

londoncalling said:


> Interesting play. I remember looking at FRU during the previous oil bull. I am not sure how much risk is reduced with royalty companies but I believe there would be some. Have you looked at Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ) | TSX Stock Price | TMX Money ? They do not have much history but I have heard they follow a royalty model as well. I haven't done any research.


Yes I have. I figure Freehold is a better option. I noted that RBC in their energy report said USA small and intermediate companies were undervalued compared to the Canadian companies . I think that is also the case with the royalties. One of these companies owns a large block in the Bakke, Permian and central Texas fields. There holdings are many millions of acres..11%dividend . . I hold this stuff inside my RRIF and it is just as easy to hold US stocks in a RRIF as it is a Canadian stock. From a tax standpoint there is no difference. The same for a RRSP.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

zinfit said:


> Will be looking at buying two US oil and gas royalties. They look extremely attractive and are paying out a dividend in the 10% range. Their cash flows and income statements fully cover these payouts within very reasonable levels. RBC has great target price upsides for both. Their holdings are large and they are certainly in the right locations. They are Kimbell Royalty and Brigham Minerals. Have done a comparison to Freehold Royalty and imo they are superior to Freehold . RBC Is projecting a 78% upside on one and a 58% upside on the other. With the market conditions as they are I like the idea of reducing risk by getting a 10% dividend. IMO these dividends are quite sustainable and might be increased with the current prices for oil and NG. In many respects the only bull in this market is the energy sector.


On second thought owning a US limited partnership can be a messy situation from a tax standpoint. The US has a whole different set of rules for these.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Will be selling my Cenovus . The proceeds will be going to buying more Whitecap and Tamarack Valley. Cenovus is an integrated and I don't see the upside compared to pure oil and gas producers. I would include Enerplus but I already own a big chunk of it.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

zinfit said:


> Bought a couple of USA small cap energy stocks. Ranger Oil and California Resources. Both have really solid NG production and no problems fully optimizing the NG market. Ranger is in the Texas Eagleforde and just reported outstanding results. CA Resources is interesting. They are a leader in CO2 capture. 30% of the electrical power in CA comes from NG. They own a NG power plant right on one of their production locations. There are no pipelines from other states into CA. RBC is very bullish on both. I took a good look at both and I was impressed. The CEO of Ranger was a very senior executive with Encana . NG selling at $7 plus is a licence to print money for good NG producers. Both of these companies have easy and short access to giant sized markets.


I neglected to mention the possibility of being acquired by one of the big boys. I don't normally consider this in buying stocks but given the current energy market it makes sense. I own Diamondback and they recently made an acquisition. With the hugh free cash flows companies are using the cash to buy back shares and to pay dividends. With its variable dividend Fang is paying something like a 9% payout.. I guess they decided an acquisition of an attractive small cap producer made a lot of sense. I suspect this may happen in Canada. Companies like Whitecap, Tamarack Valley, ARC Resources and others would be attractive acquisitions for the large cap operators.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

zinfit said:


> Companies like Whitecap, Tamarack Valley, ARC Resources and others would be attractive acquisitions for the large cap operators.


Do you actually think so? Who might be potential acquirers? These companies are nothing Imperial, Shell, Suncor, CRNL, or Cenovus would likely see as fits to their businesses, most of whom are consolidating into fewer (and larger) operations. Cenovus is kind of everywhere but with the Husky acquisition, I think their job is to divest much of Husky's fringe assets, many of which really are crap.

I see these players as more likely to merge amongst each other.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

AltaRed said:


> Do you actually think so? Who might be potential acquirers? These companies are nothing Imperial, Shell, Suncor, CRNL, or Cenovus would likely see as fits to their businesses, most of whom are consolidating into fewer (and larger) operations. Cenovus is kind of everywhere but with the Husky acquisition, I think their job is to divest much of Husky's fringe assets, many of which really are crap.
> 
> I see these players as more likely to merge amongst each other.


These outfits don't have fringe operations. They are straight low cost oil and gas producers. When you do price/cash flow and other meaningful metrics they are still selling below historic averages. I don't know if it will happen but I don't rule it out. CNQ has history of making acquisitions . One might me see a merger of equals? Whitecap and ARC would make sense . They would have a solid diversified play on a number of different producing areas. Murray Edwards and CNQ started through that sort of process. Who knows , all I know is these outfits are seeing a big pile of cash coming their way and a key requirement for senior management is how successful they are at deploying capital.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I seriously doubt there will be any significant acquisitions. M&A is far more frequent in stressed times, not good times; CNQ took out two TSX traded companies (Pony and Storm) in 2020 and 2021 and in general, you probably don't want to own the shares of any company they buy because you're not getting a big premium or the company was already in trouble.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

doctrine said:


> I seriously doubt there will be any significant acquisitions. M&A is far more frequent in stressed times, not good times; CNQ took out two TSX traded companies (Pony and Storm) in 2020 and 2021 and in general, you probably don't want to own the shares of any company they buy because you're not getting a big premium or the company was already in trouble.


I would agree if these stocks were trading at a premium but they aren't. They need to go a good distance before they reach previous levels. Some are selling at 2.5/ cash flows with a CF at 30%. Whitecap is trading around $10 and its recent previous high was $17. ARC was at $31 back in 2014 and is around $17 today.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

None of these will (should) trade again at their previous highs for any sustained length of time. The long term discounted cash flow won't be there when prices turn south again, at least from an oil perspective. There is no longer a 10 -15 year runway for oil robustness. There is already less than 1 million barrels per day of conventional light/medium/heavy oil being produced out of the WSCB scattered among dozens of intermediates and juniors. It won't be for the oil.

There is more long term encouragement for gas given the surge in LNG interest globally and amount of new North American LNG export facilities. I can see more of these gas operations being of interest.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

AltaRed said:


> None of these will (should) trade again at their previous highs for any sustained length of time. The long term discounted cash flow won't be there when prices turn south again, at least from an oil perspective. There is no longer a 10 -15 year runway for oil robustness. There is already less than 1 million barrels per day of conventional light/medium/heavy oil being produced out of the WSCB scattered among dozens of intermediates and juniors. It won't be for the oil.
> 
> There is more long term encouragement for gas given the surge in LNG interest globally and amount of new North American LNG export facilities. I can see more of these gas operations being of interest.
> [/QUOTE. A pile NG in Northern BC and the reserve life for stocks like Enerplus and Whitecap are 20 years plus. Whitecap with its techniques has found ways get a a lot more oil out of its holdings. We are a long ways from Peak oil. ESG and government policies have curtailed Capex and new development for the time being. That can change going forward.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I wasn't talking about company reserves nor even production. Peak oil is a misused term. It used to be 'peak oil' meant peak supply. More recently, it is generally used in the context of peak global demand.

Global oil demand will roll over in the not too distant future and that will impact prices. They will retract to the $60-70 range most likely. Perhaps considerably lower under some scenarios such as BP's 2022 Energy Outlook See page 44 which was done obviously before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  I think their view is a bit too aggressive but the peak is within 5 years. Unlike Doctrine, I believe there will be plenty of supply once we get over the loss of some of Russian supply. (much of it will still find its way to global markets).


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

zinfit said:


> I would agree if these stocks were trading at a premium but they aren't. They need to go a good distance before they reach previous levels. Some are selling at 2.5/ cash flows with a CF at 30%. Whitecap is trading around $10 and its recent previous high was $17. ARC was at $31 back in 2014 and is around $17 today.


The issue is they are all trading at that low cash flow multiple. So if they merge, you just have a larger company with the same cash flow. There is no accretion without some underlying reason to merge. Or worse, if a company buys another, they buy the cash flow but have to pay back the debt. And that means no shareholder returns for a few years. Companies need to pay shareholders now, and not drill or make acquisitions or other such nonsense. There will be an oil price collapse eventually, as AltaRed rightly points out. Times are good - pay down your debt, and any excess goes to shareholders. If that's a 10-20% buybacks for a few years, great. Just my opinion of course. I own most of the oil and gas stocks discussed above. I would sell any of them that break the principle of less direct shareholder returns.


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

doctrine said:


> Companies need to pay shareholders now, and not drill or make acquisitions or other such nonsense.


It seems to be the way of thinking these days but I would imagine eventually some CEO, of some energy company, will eventually figure out that shareholders never deplete. An older shareholder as no choice but to sell their shares to a newer one, but energy reserves do deplete with every barrel shipped. You might be able to convince a newer shareholder of a brighter future, but an empty barrel is always an empty barrel, at any commodity price.

So eventually someone is going to come up with the bright idea that they should think about either drilling or acquiring more reserves. I suspect you will see a little of both, soon enough...and yes, it will probably all get started at the worst possible time, as it always does.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Many, if not most of the O&G companies being discussed, more than replaced their proved reserves over the past year. As long as reserve replacement ratios exceed 1 (or 100%), perceived corporate value is being added. I say perceived because while there are strict regulatory restrictions on what can be called proved (economic to develop and produce) reserves, it doesn't mean the replacement reserves are as economic (net margin) as reserves currently being produced. That latter issue is currently taking place in all US shale basins where the sweet spots have been drilled and largely produced, and the replacement reserves are further out from the sweet spots.

Acquiring reserves is not really all that accretive since one has to pay a pretty good penny (as measured in cash flow multiples, dollars per flowing barrel, etc.). It is an advantage only when the host company is starving for capital OR their cost of capital exceeds that of the acquiring company OR they are 'tuck-in' operations for the acquiring company where operating cost savings can be wrung out of the system. As Doctrine explained, acquisitions in good times don't often pay out. Buying distressed assets often is, as is consolidation of operations eliminating/reducing G&A. Only a few O&G companies are actually quite good at that.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Big stock buys the last week for us, bit over $100k from cash to stocks.

XIU in wife's unregistered, VTI to max out my RRSP, and swapped out a bit of XIU for QQQ in my TFSA


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Added to long term holding CWB.TO at 30.32 bringing it up to a 1/2 position. The bank reported a poor quarter with net income down considerably. The bank should do better next quarter and finish the year in a better position if commodities and energy remain strong. I would prefer to see oil drop back to 90 so that oil companies remain very profitable but gas price inflation subsides.


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

So is the WTIC chart showing a build up to another breakout in oil?


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## Pescado (9 mo ago)

Nibbled at BNS last week.


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## Pescado (9 mo ago)

Added to my MX position. The sediment is getting more bullish with the worlds largest Methanol producer.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought positions in two cyber security stocks Palo Alto and Crowdstrike. Every organization whether public sector or private sector must prioritize cybersecurity security. It's a risk that cannot be ignored. These two are the leaders that the big organizations are turning to.


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## Pescado (9 mo ago)

I agree zinfit. I have a position in PANW as well. Hoping to add more. Nice space to be in.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Bought some XIC today as I shuffled money out of ENB, redeploying into the Canadian index.

No net change in my Canadian equity amount.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Topped up some BCE, divvies next week.


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

Bought CAR.UN


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

fstamand said:


> Topped up some BCE, divvies next week.


I added to my position as well. Bought a bit too early at 67.97


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Added to QSR and SNC. Started a position in AMZN.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I have orders placed for AMZN, MSFT and APPL.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

londoncalling said:


> I have orders placed for AMZN, MSFT and APPL.


In five years you will be smiling. They all very dominant and successful with what they do. I have them on my list it is just a timing thing with me. I will probably include HP, Costco and Google to that group as well. I am waiting for the recession and interest rate peak.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

I'll keep buying value stocks. Maybe in 2023 it'll be a good timing to switch to growth.

Look at this graph and compare the following 3 years or 5 years performance of growth vs value when it's above or below the equilibrium at 1.

We're still way above 1.






Growth vs. Value Stocks - 44 Year Chart | Longtermtrends


Which performed better in recent years, growth stocks or value stocks? The ratio in this chart divides the Wilshire US Large-Cap Growth Index by the Wilshire US Large-Cap Value Index. When the ratio rises, growth stocks outperform value stocks - and when it falls, value stocks outperform growth...




www.longtermtrends.net





Also, this decade we'll have to be very strategic because stocks are expected a very poor performance.






Stock Asset Allocation vs SPX 10-Year Return







financial-charts.effingapp.com


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

My orders are well below current share price so they may not execute. Like most of my buys I will likely be in a bit earlier than others due to FOMO. However, I will be buying the same quality companies at a price 25% lower than others were willing to pay at the start of the year. I don't expect them to perform as well as they did the past few years but will still be able to provide decent returns going forward.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Wow, the market is really dropping today. Time to go shopping but what to buy? Too many choices.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

I am in accumulation stage and my lesson learned is that don't wait for the bottom price. In 2018 and 2020, I waited for further price drop which didn't occur and I couldn't buy it. I remember that I changed the price of VUN from 45 to 44 in March, 2020 and it dropped to 44.5 and then rest is history. It went up to all the way 84.5. Nowadays I buy only 10 quantity with each time price drop 10 to 20 cents. Therefore, I don't miss the boat and have cash ready if it drops further.

Orders filled in today - HCLN, ZRE, XAW, XEQT, TEC


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Beaver101 said:


> Wow, the market is really dropping today. Time to go shopping but what to buy? Too many choices.


That's where an asset allocation plan helps. It tells you exactly what you are required to buy in order to satisfy your allocation targets.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

scorpion_ca said:


> I am in accumulation stage and my lesson learned is that don't wait for the bottom price. In 2018 and 2020, I waited for further price drop which didn't occur and I couldn't buy it. I remember that I changed the price of VUN from 45 to 44 in March, 2020 and it dropped to 44.5 and then rest is history. It went up to all the way 84.5. Nowadays I buy only 10 quantity with each time price drop 10 to 20 cents. Therefore, I don't miss the boat and have cash ready if it drops further.
> 
> Orders filled in today - HCLN, ZRE, XAW, XEQT, TEC


Traditional fall sale is coming. But it might not find the bottom until spring or so.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Traditional fall sale is coming. But it might not find the bottom until spring or so.


Unless your crystal ball is crystal clear, that is only a supposition or assertion. The odds seem to suggest there is a higher probability of markets continuing to go lower in the near term, but because no one actually knows anything, DCA in accumulation is the least stressful and potentially the most rewarding thing to do.

In all my years of accumulation, I have minimal memory or recollection of what went well (or bad) when in a measurable sense. What I do remember is lessons learned in an effort to avoid repeating them in the future. One of them is trying to guess market direction several months out is a fool's game.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

james4beach said:


> That's where an asset allocation plan helps. It tells you exactly what you are required to buy in order to satisfy your allocation targets.


 ... I'm sure an AA plan would help investors who are quite "disciplined" but then I am not. Actually hardly. My current AA plan is quite simple 50/50 equities/fixed income. But then do I sell my bond fund (which is in a doldrum now) so I can buy more equities? I'm very tempted but then that 50/50 gets shifted. Or do I sell some of my equities instead as I know they'll recover. Those are industries that can withstand some whippings (which don't include big names either as I'm not a fan of those). Decisions, decisions, decisions ... and who said investing is easy ...


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

AltaRed said:


> Unless your crystal ball is crystal clear, that is only a supposition or assertion. The odds seem to suggest there is a higher probability of markets continuing to go lower in the near term, but because no one actually knows anything, DCA in accumulation is the least stressful and potentially the most rewarding thing to do.
> 
> In all my years of accumulation, I have minimal memory or recollection of what went well (or bad) when in a measurable sense. What I do remember is lessons learned in an effort to avoid repeating them in the future. One of them is trying to guess market direction several months out is a fool's game.


I don’t disagree with you.
But it’s seems very unlikely that market will go up in this inflationary environment. Central banks might start to seriously consider substantial rates increase vs trying to put out the inflation spike with their current “pissing in the fire policy”.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Ukrainiandude said:


> I don’t disagree with you.
> But it’s seems very unlikely that market will go up in this inflationary environment. Central banks might start to seriously consider substantial rates increase vs trying to put out the inflation spike with their current “pissing in the fire policy”.


It could also go another way, nearly the opposite of what you say.

Say the central banks chicken out, pause the rate hikes, perhaps emboldened by a slight deceleration in CPI (which is definitely possible). In that case, asset prices could go berserk.


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## MK7GTI (Mar 4, 2019)

I'm looking at a few US blue chippers but are still too expensive. Waiting for them to become a bit cheaper. 

What is everyone else watching?


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

MK7GTI said:


> I'm looking at a few US blue chippers but are still too expensive. Waiting for them to become a bit cheaper.
> 
> What is everyone else watching?


I am looking at the big companies with excellent balance sheets, low debt , great FCFs and have big cash on the balance sheets and have dominant and enduring business operations. Microsoft , Apple, Alphabet, Amazon , J&J , Nvdia are the names that are fitting that definition. Apple and Microsoft each have over a100 billion in cash. Alphabet has 150 billion. Each of them is an integral part of modern society. Might put Costco on that list. What is on your list? I should say I am a long from making that decision right now.


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

Many stocks are really well valued now. The analysts use a discount rate in their stock models generally similar to = RFree rate (10 yr bond yield) + inflation + the equity risk premium. At the bottom of the pandemic , this was .25% + 2% + say 3.5% = 5.75%.

Now RF is going up to 3% inflation is 7% and ERP is still 3.5% so = 13.5%. So stocks have really fallen in large part because of this as many continue to grow earnings and beat estimates. Good time to load up on anything really for that alone

When the world gets back to normal say, RF of 3%, inflation 3% ERP 3.5 % = 9.5%, So all else being = you can get a ~ 30% return alone just from the rate falling back to the mean over the next say 2 yrs.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Jimmy said:


> Many stocks are really well valued now. The analysts use a discount rate in their stock models generally similar to = RFree rate (10 yr bond yield) + inflation + the equity risk premium. At the bottom of the pandemic , this was .25% + 2% + say 3.5% = 5.75%.
> 
> Now RF is going up to 3% inflation is 7% and ERP is still 3.5% so = 13.5%. So stocks have really fallen in large part because of this as many continue to grow earnings and beat estimates. Good time to load up on anything really for that alone
> 
> When the world gets back to normal say, RF of 3%, inflation 3% ERP 3.5 % = 9.5%, So all else being = you can get a ~ 30% return alone just from the rate falling back to the mean over the next say 2 yrs.


Interesting. I've never heard this before.

Can you explain some things?

What is the equity risk premium and how do you come to 3.5%?

And how exactly did you arrive at 30% return in your last assumption?


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

KaeJS said:


> Interesting. I've never heard this before.
> 
> Can you explain some things?
> 
> ...


The ERP is just the expected return difference between riskier stocks and the 10 yr govt bond ( risk free return) . Equity Risk Premium Definition (investopedia.com) I have just seen 3.5 % used commonly.

Here is a table of ERPs ( Implied ERP by year) It actually varies ( I just used 3.5 which was a LT avg for simplicity) https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histimpl.html

I just took (13.5-9.5) /13.5 = a decline of ~ 30%. It is interesting how much of the market moves lately have been due to 2 parts of the equation - inflation and the 10 yr bond yield (Rf rate). You can see the wild moves this week when inflation came in in the US at 8% and no signs of slowing down that has spooked markets the most IMO. Then again inflation they usually try and keep in a 2% range. So people will require an 8% return (for US stocks) just for inflation alone.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Thank you for explaining. I see.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

MK7GTI said:


> I'm looking at a few US blue chippers but are still too expensive. Waiting for them to become a bit cheaper.
> 
> What is everyone else watching?


Watching these. Hard to call a bottom but with the pull back these 6 are now all yielding over 5% so could hold them forever and get decent return.

ENB 6.49
GWO 6.35
BCE 5.99
TRP 5.42
CM 5.21
BNS 5.19

"Banks don't do well in a recession" .... Recessions don't last forever but dividends do (at least with the banks).


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Despite it still being overpriced, I started a small position in Loblaw. I looked at the other grocers and there's not much light between them on PE, yield and value. I hate that the big grocers are mostly privately controlled with only a small part of the equity being public. The multi-level scheme that gives the Westons effectively complete control with only partial ownership really gives me the willies.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Todays buys:

BCE
T
ENB
FTS
XEQT
XQQ
XSP


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

KaeJS said:


> XQQ
> XSP


*76.5%*
% of *QQQ*'s 102 holdings also in SPY


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Ukrainiandude said:


> *76.5%*
> % of *QQQ*'s 102 holdings also in SPY


This is true!

But not everything is the same, including the weightings.

I have to buy XQQ because it holds things I wouldn't normally buy on my own, so it's a way of hedging myself.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

I added a bit of XIC in the RRSP. Price seems cheap and I am now underweight on equity.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Currently shuffling cash between banks to buy some GICs at the end of June.

I looked at my asset allocation spreadsheet on Friday. I'm exactly at my 30% target weight in stocks, and am only underweight bonds/GICs at the moment, so that's all I can buy. For me, buying stocks ist verboten.

If stocks keep tanking then I'd start to buy them as well, but I let my asset allocation plan tell me what to do. I wrote about my approach to the bear market in this other post.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Bought some more KMP.UN with some Manulife dividends I got.


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## Gator13 (Jan 5, 2020)

james4beach said:


> Currently shuffling cash between banks to buy some GICs at the end of June.
> 
> I looked at my asset allocation spreadsheet on Friday. I'm exactly at my 30% target weight in stocks, and am only underweight bonds/GICs at the moment, so that's all I can buy. For me, buying stocks ist verboten.
> 
> If stocks keep tanking then I'd start to buy them as well, but I let my asset allocation plan tell me what to do. I wrote about my approach to the bear market in this other post.


Do you mind sharing the breakdown of all your holdings? Your link mentions that it is based on your primary account. I believe you have also mentioned GIC's, 5-Pack, maybe a "gambling" account, etc. Thx


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Gator13 said:


> Do you mind sharing the breakdown of all your holdings? Your link mentions that it is based on your primary account. I believe you have also mentioned GIC's, 5-Pack, maybe a "gambling" account, etc. Thx


Sure. Yeah, I do have the 5-pack in there. Here is my consolidated, overall breakdown of all my investments once I combine all accounts.

Equities, 30.0%
9.5% Canadian 5-pack (similar to XIU)
4.9% Canadian index (XIU)
0.7% Canadian sector picks/gambling (currently XEG)
1.5% Canadian growth stock picks
8.3% US index, S&P 500
5.1% US index, trend following

Fixed income, 48.4%
23.5% individual bonds (similar to XBB)
14.0% GICs
10.9% XBB

Gold, 21.6%
21.6% mix of CGL.C, MNT, IAU, and physical gold


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## Gator13 (Jan 5, 2020)

^ Thanks. A disciplined approach, but yet a structure that allows you to be active/hands on.

I am a dividend investor with a heavier equity allocation, but I appreciate a structured approach.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Added to CNQ at 64.97.

Also deployed some cash to a 1 year redeemable GIC. I want to keep this money fairly liquid to either lock in longer term after the next couple hikes or to put into equities if I run out of dry powder should the bear continue.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

XEM
XIU
XIC


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

KaeJS said:


> XEM
> XIU
> XIC


Why don't you buy XEQT instead of buying individual ETF? I am very confident that your individual portfolio will not be able to beat the all world equity ETF.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

scorpion_ca said:


> Why don't you buy XEQT instead of buying individual ETF? I am very confident that your individual portfolio will not be able to beat the all world equity ETF.


I do also buy XEQT, and it is much larger than the XIU, XIC, XEM I own.

But I like to dabble and play around. I do also like to try and take advantage when I feel it is right to do so. The TSX was down quite a bit more than normal today and moreso than the US markets, so I decided to add a bit to XIU/XIC.

Maybe I will have a worse return in 20 years, or maybe it will be better. Who knows. =)


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

KaeJS said:


> I do also buy XEQT, and it is much larger than the XIU, XIC, XEM I own.
> 
> But I like to dabble and play around. I do also like to try and take advantage when I feel it is right to do so. The TSX was down quite a bit more than normal today and moreso than the US markets, so I decided to add a bit to XIU/XIC.
> 
> Maybe I will have a worse return in 20 years, or maybe it will be better. Who knows. =)


I used to think like you that I can beat the XEQT. I have been tracking the performance of XEQT against the individual broad based index ETF since 2019, unfortunately I can't even match the performance of XEQT. So, starting from March, 2022, buying only XEQT and ZRE for monthly income.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

scorpion_ca said:


> I used to think like you that I can beat the XEQT. I have been tracking the performance of XEQT against the individual broad based index ETF since 2019, unfortunately I can't even match the performance of XEQT. So, starting from March, 2022, buying only XEQT and ZRE for monthly income.


You mentioned XEQT and ZRE for monthly income. Do you buy any ZWC? With the covered call ZWC has much higher yield. Not for everyone but good for income.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

GGuy said:


> You mentioned XEQT and ZRE for monthly income. Do you buy any ZWC? With the covered call ZWC has much higher yield. Not for everyone but good for income.


No. I am in accumulation stage and I want to build a REIT position that would provide me monthly income in future. 

Here is the comparison between ZWC and ZRE for the last 5 years.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

scorpion_ca said:


> No. I am in accumulation stage and I want to build a REIT position that would provide me monthly income in future.
> 
> Here is the comparison between ZWC and ZRE for the last 5 years.
> 
> View attachment 23329


How old are you @scorpion_ca ?

I don't have ZRE but instead hold CGR.
I usually like to pick my own REITs, too. I know we already had the discussion about "picking things", but I have sizeable amounts in SRU, REI.UN, CAR.UN and KMP.UN

I would love to add more to my CGR position as it's come down to a more reasonable level.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I'm torn on REITs. They tend not to see as much capital appreciation as other equities. They were a great holding when we had low rates as you could get a nice steady yield and low volatility. I considered them a decent bond replacement. Now that the yield is comparable for a 3 year GIC and KMP.UN I am not so sure. I definitely like the price much better than a year ago but Am not sure when we will see gains in REITs. Perhaps I'll get more interested after the next hike depending on how REITs respond. I understand real estate is a good hedge against inflation. @KaeJS Are what is your expectation for REITs over the next while. We are often on a similar wave length. As mentioned elsewhere, I have been keeping duration short while I decide where to put future purchases. Obviously you are bullish as you have been adding. I would be interested to hear your thoughts as to what's to come.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

londoncalling said:


> I'm torn on REITs. They tend not to see as much capital appreciation as other equities. They were a great holding when we had low rates as you could get a nice steady yield and low volatility. I considered them a decent bond replacement. Now that the yield is comparable for a 3 year GIC and KMP.UN I am not so sure. I definitely like the price much better than a year ago but Am not sure when we will see gains in REITs. Perhaps I'll get more interested after the next hike depending on how REITs respond. I understand real estate is a good hedge against inflation. @KaeJS Are what is your expectation for REITs over the next while. We are often on a similar wave length. As mentioned elsewhere, I have been keeping duration short while I decide where to put future purchases. Obviously you are bullish as you have been adding. I would be interested to hear your thoughts as to what's to come.


I am one of the people who feel like inflation will not continue to run.

I think at some point, oil will come down in price and I think that supply chain issues will resolve.

In addition, I think if inflation gets too high, people are simply not going to have disposable income. I think this case of rising rates by the governments is going to be short term. I can't see it lasting. 

However, I can see people and businesses needing to pay rent. Also, in a lot of places, rent is tied to inflation so these companies should be collecting more revenue even if their expenses increase.

You're correct that the gains of the REITs will no doubt be less than that of some longer term growth companies, but REITs are still an important part of my portfolio. I tend to keep quite a bit of my REITs in the TFSA for tax reasons.

If you've got the long term outlook, then just keep using the distributions to buy more shares =)


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

KaeJS said:


> How old are you @scorpion_ca ?
> 
> I don't have ZRE but instead hold CGR.
> I usually like to pick my own REITs, too. I know we already had the discussion about "picking things", but I have sizeable amounts in SRU, REI.UN, CAR.UN and KMP.UN
> ...


Below 40s. 
I am going to stick with Canadian REITs for now. I like ZRE because it's an equal weight ETF.


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## Mandor (Jan 4, 2012)

scorpion_ca said:


> Below 40s.
> I am going to stick with Canadian REITs for now. I like ZRE because it's an equal weight ETF.
> 
> View attachment 23330


what about RIT.TO? actively managed and MER isnt much higher


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## MK7GTI (Mar 4, 2019)

Made a few purchases yesterday.. ZRE, XEQT, SO, WMT, and ZWC.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Bought some more KMP.UN with dividends I received in the TFSA.

Bought some XSMH and XMH in the NonReg.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Started a position in Lundin Mining (LUN.TO) this morning at $7.89 as a long term hold. I opted for base metals over lumber to diversify my commodities exposure. Both could see further decline along with the rest of the market on recession fears/reality. I opted for this one over TECK because of it's low debt. It has done a remarkable job in the last few years in reducing its debt while providing return to shareholders. Cash weighting now just under 11%


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

BCE
T
XEQT


----------



## crgf1k (Aug 8, 2015)

HHL


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

A standing order for RY.TO filled today at $120.12 to a full position around 3% of portfolio. I would consider this fair value and would overweight on further decline. Cash allocation now at 9.5%


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Used up my cash in my TFSA to buy additional shares in Telus.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Bought more EQB


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

MrBlackhill said:


> Bought more EQB


I have been eyeing that as well. Was thinking of buying a big chunk of shares soon but was thinking they may be lower after the fed announces their rate hike. However, it could go the other way too lol but we will see.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Added to L, BNS and PKI in the dividend portfolio this morning. Added to ZEA in the RRSP to deploy some dividend cash.


----------



## Raggedy Dandy (Mar 12, 2020)

I added to my positions today in CTC.A after the drop the other day, and also to TD to bring it in line with my target for a meaningful holding (min 2.5-3% of account).


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Reinvested some dividends from BNS and CM into T.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

So...was the July 14 dip the start of the bigger recession and drop in the market? ...or are there more lows to come? The TSX only went to 18.3. I was expecting much lower. (And yes..I know, I know..."sounds like you are trying to time the market...", but, why are the markets so positive?)
I freed up cash in early 2022 for this pullback, but the markets are behaving very optimistically.
More rate increases are being forecasted for the Fall/Winter 2022/23, and so I am making the assumption that more volatility will follow. Feels kind of strange wishing for the market to crash.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

dubmac said:


> but, why are the markets so positive?


At the moment, it looks like the market is predicting that central banks will give up on rate hikes / give up on hawkish policy.

If we're moving back to low interest rates and constant stimulus, that would pump stocks back up. In other words, back to "business as usual" with endless market stimulus and near zero interest rate policy, just like the last 14 years. Stocks absolutely love low interest rates and QE.

For a while there was a big fear that the party would end, rates would go higher and QE would end. If the stimulus party ends, then stocks fall -- obviously. Now the reverse thinking is out there ... _the party continues_.

No idea if the market is correctly predicting any of this.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

didn't the US Fed just increase their rate up 0.75 bpts?
My understanding based on what I read is that the rate in Canada will increase as early as Sept 2022.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

dubmac said:


> didn't the US Fed just increase their rate up 0.75 bpts?
> My understanding based on what I read is that the rate in Canada will increase as early as Sept 2022.


Yes there are more rate hikes expected but the bond market appears to be forecasting the "end" of rate hikes.

For example the Bank of Canada overnight rate is currently 2.50%
And the 10 year government bond yield is 2.61%

The BoC may do another 2 x 50 basis point increases. That would take the BoC rate to about 3.50%.

But then why is the 10 year bond yield only at 2.61% ? It doesn't really make sense. The question is really: how high does the Fed rate, or BoC rate go.

The bond market may be anticipating that the Fed and BoC are not going to raise as aggressively as people tend to think. Perhaps they will even stop raising rates soon, who knows.


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## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

james4beach said:


> No idea if the market is correctly predicting any of this.


A lot of it could be recency bias. The market believes the Fed will pivot, but that belief is based on the last 40 years of low inflation. Most market participants have never experienced this kind of inflation.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

nathan79 said:


> A lot of it could be recency bias. The market believes the Fed will pivot, but that belief is based on the last 40 years of low inflation. Most market participants have never experienced this kind of inflation.


That's very true. It could just be human behaviour... people stubborn to change their existing patterns. Many are used to inflation being low.

If high inflation persists, then both bonds AND stocks are going to get hammered going forward.

My bond allocation continues to have a lot of GICs since these aren't volatile and don't plummet in price, even if rates rise.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I think the bond markets in particular are actually predicting BoC being serious about taming inflation. Current 5 and 10 year bond yields are putting trust in inflation getting back to 2%.

Equities are more likely to be a mixed bag with some continuing to slide and others holding their own. I see consumer discretionary and commodities continuing to take a kicking for some time, as well as those unnecessarily highly leveraged, but the rest of the market does not seem under too much additional threat.

I still see a negative full calendar year for both equities and bonds but not terribly so.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

james4beach said:


> But then why is the 10 year bond yield only at 2.61% ? It doesn't really make sense.


To me, it makes sense. We are expecting lower rates within those next 10 years as those rate hikes are only meant to be psychological (and to fight inflation) but high inflation (above 3%) won't last.

If one would be to buy 1-year bond every year for 10 years, do we expect him to make more or less profits than one buying a 10-year bond?


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Got an allocation on the TRP offering at 63.50. Could have just bought on the market for that or even a bit less... Anyway it's a reasonable price for an add I was considering anyhow.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Bought a 1 year redeemable GIC in my TFSA with money received for some consulting work I did in July. Will redeem a portion to cover any taxes in 2023.


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

james4beach said:


> But then why is the 10 year bond yield only at 2.61% ? It doesn't really make sense. The question is really: how high does the Fed rate, or BoC rate go.
> 
> The bond market may be anticipating that the Fed and BoC are not going to raise as aggressively as people tend to think. Perhaps they will even stop raising rates soon, who knows.


Some of us follow the forward 5 year inflation expectation for a signal on this (Link below). It essentially tells one the inflation expectation in the last five years of the 10. You understand compounding so I will not elaborate on the math. 









5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate


View a measure of the average expected inflation over the five-year period that begins five years from the date data are reported.



fred.stlouisfed.org





The big caveat is these are derived from TIPs and treasuries which one can argue are not market prices due to CB intervention.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought more Arx Resources. Took a strong position in some USA energy plays. Cheniere[a major LNG stock], EQT[largest US NG producer and Range Resources a very strong NG producer. Arx is a strong NG producer. The fall and winter should be very bullish for NG especially with the US ability to export LNG to Europe and Japan. The price is over 9$ per btu and will be over 10 this winter. That is my case and I am sticking with it.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

zinfit said:


> Bought more Arx Resources


We may not agree on everything, but I'm also long ARX.

I didn't actually go looking for a natural gas stock. I run a stock screening that uses various filters, including market cap, earnings health, technical stock price health, and volatility. ARX appeared on my list because of its strong metrics combined with relatively mild volatility, which I figured gives it a good risk/reward profile.

I actually do my stock selection "blind" so that I don't know what the company name is. I hope this eliminates my personal biases and lets me choose things based on quantitative merits. So I didn't even know it was a nat gas company when the screening showed it was a candidate. Other picks from that screening include IFC, TRI and CSU.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

Just pulled the trigger on shares of Barrick at $15.45. Gold is under pressure due to interest rates rising but Barrick is also increasing its output of copper. I figure today's selloff is overdone and it should rebound within the next few weeks, so it could even be a quick trade to make 5% to 7%, if I'm lucky.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> Just pulled the trigger on shares of Barrick at $15.45. Gold is under pressure due to interest rates rising but Barrick is also increasing its output of copper. I figure today's selloff is overdone and it should rebound within the next few weeks, so it could even be a quick trade to make 5% to 7%, if I'm lucky.


Good luck. I have played around with gold stocks in the past. I have never done very well. Based on my experience I don't play this sector. A strong US dollar and a rising interest rate environment are never friendly for gold stocks. For the gold bugs I guess one always say there is gold in them there hills or at the end of the rainbow.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Always better to hold pure bullion, using CGL.C for example.

Gold miners are so terrible that they can't even outperform bullion prices.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Got a dividend from RY the other day and bought some CSH.UN with it today to add to my position.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

james4beach said:


> Always better to hold pure bullion, using CGL.C for example.
> 
> Gold miners are so terrible that they can't even outperform bullion prices.


I'm not long GOLD. It's a swing trade for me. A bit of a gamble, but Barrick isn't a pure gold play. From coverage of the company's Q2 report:

_Barrick’s copper production jumped 25% year-over-year to 120 million lbs and the company noted that it was on track to meet its copper production guidance targets (420 – 470 million lbs) for the year._



https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/should-you-buy-barrick-gold-stock-as-copper-production-soars


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> I'm not long GOLD. It's a swing trade for me. A bit of a gamble, but Barrick isn't a pure gold play. From coverage of the company's Q2 report:
> 
> _Barrick’s copper production jumped 25% year-over-year to 120 million lbs and the company noted that it was on track to meet its copper production guidance targets (420 – 470 million lbs) for the year._
> 
> ...


Copper might be a good if you hit the right part of the cycle. If you are betting on copper Teck will soon be a fairly big producer of copper. Believe me copper is far more important to the economy then gold. When the auto sector starts ramping up production of EVs they will be using a lot of copper.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

zinfit said:


> Believe me copper is far more important to the economy then gold


Yeah, gold is not a big industrial metal. I believe that only a small % of all gold in existence is used for industrial purposes.

For me, gold is mainly a "foreign currency" and diversifier to use for wealth accumulation and wealth storage. @MarcoE @hfp75

Actually, this non-industrial nature of gold is also what makes it useful in a portfolio. Things that are economically sensitive, like copper and oil, are correlated with economic cycles and stocks. Gold on the other hand is not sensitive to the same things, so it moves somewhat independently --- it's uncorrelated. I like that aspect of it, and hold a lot of gold.

So one thing to beware, if you load up a portfolio with stocks + copper + oil , is that you likely end up with a portfolio with heightened sensitivity to economic cycles, including economic downturns.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

NA 57M
CM 243M
BMO 136M
BNS 412M
TD 351M
RY 340M

Total 1,539M or 1.5B provision for credit losses recorded this quarter by the Big Six


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

I added to RY, BCE, FTS, PKI in my dividends portfolio. I used a bunch of $US at $1.31, which is a good rate. Made almost $400 on currency gains, so I will have to report it on my taxes.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

I


Ukrainiandude said:


> NA 57M
> CM 243M
> BMO 136M
> BNS 412M
> ...


I suspect the regulator required these set asides and it probably means little chance of a dividend increase for quite some time. The banks are preparing for a recession. Powell's latest speech almost guarantees a recession.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

gardner said:


> I added to RY, BCE, FTS, PKI in my dividends portfolio. I used a bunch of $US at $1.31, which is a good rate. Made almost $400 on currency gains, so I will have to report it on my taxes.


Yeah this is a nice boost from the USD. I'm sitting on a stash of USD, starting to wonder if I should harvest some FX gains.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

Today bought BCE, CM, BNS, ENB, ZWU

All yielding well over 5% with this pull back.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Nice buys. Most of what I was looking to buy was not on sale today. Namely ATD which was up 4% when the Canadian market was bleeding. I am fully allocated to the BNS and ENB and have an order for BCE at 6% yield. Not sure if tomorrow we will see a small bounce or further decline. Am considering buying some silver maples.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

londoncalling said:


> Nice buys. Most of what I was looking to buy was not on sale today. Namely ATD which was up 4% when the Canadian market was bleeding. I am fully allocated to the BNS and ENB and have an order for BCE at 6% yield. Not sure if tomorrow we will see a small bounce or further decline. Am considering buying some silver maples.


BCE yielding 5.80% at close today. You’re close. 

I have a huge silver maple in the back yard. Absolutely beautiful tree but needs pruning constantly.


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## MK7GTI (Mar 4, 2019)

Bought some BNS, BAM.A, and CNR yesterday.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

londoncalling said:


> Nice buys. Most of what I was looking to buy was not on sale today. Namely ATD which was up 4% when the Canadian market was bleeding. I am fully allocated to the BNS and ENB and have an order for BCE at 6% yield. Not sure if tomorrow we will see a small bounce or further decline. Am considering buying some silver maples.


You might get your chance with BCE before the close, @londoncalling. It started strong but has just turned negative for the day.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

GGuy said:


> I have a huge silver maple in the back yard.


We had one too. One day it fell on our house in a storm. Don't like them -- next to Manitoba maple, they are a weed tree. I'd recommend leaving silver alone and going with gold.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

gardner said:


> We had one too. One day it fell on our house in a storm. Don't like them -- next to Manitoba maple, they are a weed tree. I'd recommend leaving silver alone and going with gold.


Why do you prefer gold over silver?


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Using up my piggy bank of USD inside my RRSP to buy 100 TD bank shares on the NYSE.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought more LAC [ 338 shares] . It is a play on lithium and I have done quite well with my current holdings. The recent policy choices made by the US government on EV production is quite friendly for this stock. Will buy more Abermarle when I can find some cash.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

londoncalling said:


> Nice buys. Most of what I was looking to buy was not on sale today. Namely ATD which was up 4% when the Canadian market was bleeding. I am fully allocated to the BNS and ENB and have an order for BCE at 6% yield. Not sure if tomorrow we will see a small bounce or further decline. Am considering buying some silver maples.


Did you snatch any BCE today? I couldn't resist. In at $61.15 for a 6.02% dividend.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> Did you snatch any BCE today? I couldn't resist. In at $61.15 for a 6.02% dividend.


I did not. My order is below $61.00. Today was a green day on the market for most stocks. BCE was not due to ex div date. If tomorrow is a down day I will likely be assigned more than doubling my position. My last buy was during the pandemic correction and a yield of 6%. Good job on your purchase.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Buying some BCE today.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

newfoundlander61 said:


> Buying some BCE today.


Hope you got a fill, @londoncalling too. A nice bounce in the SP so far today!


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

londoncalling said:


> I did not. My order is below $61.00. Today was a green day on the market for most stocks. BCE was not due to ex div date. If tomorrow is a down day I will likely be assigned more than doubling my position. My last buy was during the pandemic correction and a yield of 6%. Good job on your purchase.


Same here, waiting to see if it drops lower in the next month or so. I also picked up some during the drop in march 2020.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

I would expect BCE to drop lower with the general market going forward.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

FTS, CSH.UN


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Bought GOOG at 102 and change today.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

newfoundlander61 said:


> I would expect BCE to drop lower with the general market going forward.


Maybe so, but another strong day for BCE today.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

I notice not alot of folks buying, or at least posting they are buying. Analysts figure the thud from raising rates will be seen in earnings over the next 12 months so the bear market likely drags on and new lows are in the cards.

Patience is a virtue but some great opportunities right now. BCE, FTS, GOOG at 52 week lows. BCE now yielding over 6%. Great entry point for the banks too. 

Question is when to pull the trigger. Even if you are in for the long term, entry point is still important. Leg in I suppose.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

Deleted


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

GGuy said:


> Question is when to pull the trigger. Even if you are in for the long term, entry point is still important. Leg in I suppose.


Total judgement call for everyone. Personally I'm still waiting, the few buy in price points I set haven't been reached yet. For example, I'll only start to look at adding to my BCE position if it falls below $60.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

cainvest said:


> Total judgement call for everyone. Personally I'm still waiting, the few buy in price points I set haven't been reached yet. For example, I'll only start to look at adding to my BCE position if it falls below $60.


BCE below $60 likely happens soon. I've been waiting to add more but feel like we still have months of downward pressure left.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Call me cheap but then I like small (risky) names - buying a few more ERE.UN with my divvies.

Just noticed sticker BCE above - LOL ... I'll consider it when Bibic is gone.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

GGuy said:


> I've been waiting to add more but feel like we still have months of downward pressure left.


There are numerous significant factors at play right now, nobody knows if the turn around will be tomorrow, in a month or in a year.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

If one assumes BoC is right that inflation will be down to 2% by 2024, or the US Fed is right that inflation will be down to 2% by 2025 (current estimates), one might assume the market bottom will be somewhere between mid-to-end of 2023. The US Fed estimates of economic data released yesterday assumes peak interest rates in 2023, and starting to decrease in 2024. All of that, of course, depends on whether their crystal ball is about right. Then there is always the risk of covid variants setting us back big time to derail everything.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

Went ahead and added to BNS and HHL today. Holding long.
Still way overweight cash and fixed. But like it that way for now.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Bought a 5 year GIC today


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

A piece of advice that has been 100% accurate over the past 100 years is ' don't fight the fed" . Anyone says that they are successful in gaining by buying the right stocks in this bear market is in the Trump world.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

james4beach said:


> Bought a 5 year GIC today


What's the interest rate?


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

GGuy said:


> BNS


no one wanted it one year ago when it traded at $55 for half a year 


james4beach said:


> Bought a 5 year GIC today


Which bank ?


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Lots of buying activity today from CMF



londoncalling said:


> initial purchase of JWEL.TO today at 34.88. The stock has a good payout ratio and should be able to continue increasing dividends at a rate in the teens over the next while. Have a second order ready to go to bring to a full position.


Placed an order at the start of the week not expecting it to fill today at 33.77. The stock was 36.77 in the past 5 days. Last dividend increase was 13% and line with my expectations. Today's purchase puts this holding slightly overweight at 3.7%. Cash weighting sits just under 10%. Other orders in still queued for AMZN, BCE.TO, BNS.TO and MSFT.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

scorpion_ca said:


> What's the interest rate?





Ukrainiandude said:


> Which bank ?


I bought 4.60% issued by Royal Bank, 5 years.

I think the rate is good. For comparison, the Canadian 2 year bond yields 3.8% and 5 year bond yields just 3.3% (inverted). This is 130 basis points more than the same term government bond.

There are some higher rates around, but I manage my ladder from a discount brokerage. Over the years I have found that the rates are pretty good, even though sometimes there are better deals elsewhere. Hoping to see higher GIC rates in the coming months, but who knows.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Ukrainiandude said:


> no one wanted it one year ago when it traded at $55 for half a year


I did. 😉😎


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

DIS and GOOG both back under $100 today. MSFT at 52 week low.

At some point will get back into these but the water is so choppy and I don't swim well.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

A small order filled for BNS today at $69.18 in my TFSA. Cash position slightly above 9%. Some are expecting to feel the pain experienced in 2008. I am not excited for that kind of correction but have prepared myself for the possibility. Unlike 2008 I have more access to cash and a better understanding of DIY. I have added ATD.TO to my buy list but haven't put in an order.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

londoncalling said:


> A small order filled for BNS today at $69.18 in my TFSA. Cash position slightly above 9%. Some are expecting to feel the pain experienced in 2008. I am not excited for that kind of correction but have prepared myself for the possibility. Unlike 2008 I have more access to cash and a better understanding of DIY. I have added ATD.TO to my buy list but haven't put in an order.


ATD is so high to me.
My ACB is 37. Couldn't possibly buy it in the 50s.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

What a week but haven't seen any circuit breakers yet? Bought ZRE and XEQT this week.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

scorpion_ca said:


> What a week but haven't seen any circuit breakers yet? Bought ZRE and XEQT this week.


Definitely no circuit breakers. These have been pretty orderly declines actually, smooth trading throughout the day. Nothing like a stock market crash.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

KaeJS said:


> ATD is so high to me.
> My ACB is 37. Couldn't possibly buy it in the 50s.


I would buy my first tranche in the mid to upper 40s. Not sure it will get there. Similar to Loblaw's I think I may have missed my entry point unless we see a crash.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

good article by Norm Rothery in the Investment section of the G&M today. l likely behind a paywall. Normally Rothery is all doom and gloom - but this one was a nice surprise. How the Stable Dividend portfolio fares in uncertain times
If so, the article identifies 20 stocks - mostly familiar names. One paragraph jumps out

. It picks 20 stocks from the dividend-paying portfolio that were the least volatile over the preceding 260 days. That is, their prices varied the least compared to other dividend stocks in recent months. ..... the growth trajectory of the Stable Dividend portfolio, which puts an equal amount of money in each of the 20 stocks and is rebalanced monthly. The portfolio gained an average of 14.5 percent annually from the end of 1993 through August 2022.

These stocks are the BCE, T, RY, H, SLF, FTS, EMA, MRU, AQN, CU, RSI... etc etc...


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

londoncalling said:


> A small order filled for BNS today at $69.18 in my TFSA.


BNS taking a beating today, on the CEO news I gather. You might want to scoop up some more ... wouldn't be surpised if they hit 3% down today given the trend.


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

cainvest said:


> BNS taking a beating today, on the CEO news I gather. You might want to scoop up some more ... wouldn't be surpised if they hit 3% down today given the trend


Am cautiously optimistic about this. Maybe the new ceo will make share price appreciation a priority...


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

BNS is the weakest of the Cdn banks. I hold BNS, but do not have any expectations around growth, at least not any time soon. RY, BMO and TD have more potential, JMO.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I definitely could have saved a couple dollars per share by waiting a couple days. I am now fully allocated to BNS and Canadian banks. However, my order for BCE hit today at $60.63 which is near the 52 week low set today. There is a good probability that there will be more 52 week lows on their way. I am fully allocated to BCE so won't get a chance to pick up more if it goes into the $50s. Cash now at 7.25%. The buying itch has been scratched for now. Should more stocks come on sale this week and cash drops to below 5% I will redeem a couple of 1 year GICs to access more dry powder. Only ones that I am looking at now are MSFT, APPL and ATD.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

dubmac said:


> BNS is the weakest of the Cdn banks. I hold BNS, but do not have any expectations around growth, at least not any time soon. RY, BMO and TD have more potential, JMO.


BNS looks the worst for growth but gives best dividend followed by CM and then the others.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Bought some XSP today. (Sp500, cad hedged)


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

dubmac said:


> good article by Norm Rothery in the Investment section of the G&M today. l likely behind a paywall. Normally Rothery is all doom and gloom - but this one was a nice surprise. How the Stable Dividend portfolio fares in uncertain times
> If so, the article identifies 20 stocks - mostly familiar names. One paragraph jumps out
> 
> . It picks 20 stocks from the dividend-paying portfolio that were the least volatile over the preceding 260 days. That is, their prices varied the least compared to other dividend stocks in recent months. ..... the growth trajectory of the Stable Dividend portfolio, which puts an equal amount of money in each of the 20 stocks and is rebalanced monthly. The portfolio gained an average of 14.5 percent annually from the end of 1993 through August 2022.
> ...


I read the article and it is quite interesting. I wonder @james4beach @MrBlackhill if you have simulated anything similar with Canadian stocks (my universe has traditionally been more international).

The author's strategy is not a set it and forget it portfolio. But it is not hard to understand nor is it computationally intensive to implement.

The average annual return of the portfolio, per the author, is 14.5% and while the CAGR and vol are not given, a growth chart is provided.


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## DenisD (Apr 19, 2009)

Those with TDDI accounts but no G&M access can read Norm's article under Research/News and Commentary.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Covariance said:


> I read the article and it is quite interesting. I wonder @james4beach @MrBlackhill if you have simulated anything similar with Canadian stocks (my universe has traditionally been more international).


I hold many of those same stocks myself. For several years now, I've been applying a screening that looks for technical strength. Just like that author notes, I also screen for volatility, and exclude stocks that go outside a volatility band.

The approach has served me well. I think screening for volatility is a good idea, because high beta stocks only increase the uncertainty in a portfolio. We stock pickers tend to hold pretty concentrated portfolios, so I think there's additional value in avoiding high beta.

The other big thing I do is diversify my sector exposures. Highly recommended.


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## Flugzeug (Aug 15, 2018)

Bought some TD, BCE, XEQT and ZDV today in various accounts.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Used up some dividend cash in my wife's TFSA to buy additional shares of CHP.UN


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought 25k. more ENB.PR.D at 17.75 . A defensive move. The stock is paying about 6.3 % until this early spring when it resets at the BOC 5 year rate plus 2.39%. I expect the BOC rate to be in the region of 3.50% at the reset date. That would be a rate close to 8% based on the current price. Seems hard not see this stock not moving in a bullish trend over the next 6 months.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Purchased a 1 year non redeemable GIC. The term will come due a couple weeks before mortgage renewal and will be used to pay down the mortgage. I have a couple of redeemable GICs purchased in 2022 which I may rollover if rates continue to climb before year end. 

Also considering moving some RESP sitting in cash into a 5 year GIC which would line up with when the offspring finishes high school and would move on to post secondary. Alternatively, I could divide it to create a ladder to take funds each year of post secondary. The bulk of the RESP is sitting in VEQT.


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

londoncalling said:


> Purchased a 1 year non redeemable GIC. The term will come due a couple weeks before mortgage renewal and will be used to pay down the mortgage. I have a couple of redeemable GICs purchased in 2022 which I may rollover if rates continue to climb before year end.
> 
> Also considering moving some RESP sitting in cash into a 5 year GIC which would line up with when the offspring finishes high school and would move on to post secondary. Alternatively, I could divide it to create a ladder to take funds each year of post secondary. The bulk of the RESP is sitting in VEQT.


Not sure of the quantum in your RESP, or the exact timing. But you might consider timing a GIC with an amount equal to the tax shielded EAP avaialble for the child if it’s in the next two years. Creates a cashflow match to a predictable funding need. Notionally, set those aside as each times in. Job done. The remainder of the account, to fund withdrawals with duration longer than 2 years I would lean toward an asset allocation across the entire account that optimizes expected return for the risk you are prepared to take. Then blend it yourself instead of a one fund.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

dubmac said:


> BNS is the weakest of the Cdn banks. I hold BNS, but do not have any expectations around growth, at least not any time soon. RY, BMO and TD have more potential, JMO.


with the strength of the US dollar and will stay that way until the US Fed has got a handle on inflation. That means very lousy earnings frr BNS especially from their giant sized position in Latin America.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

That would appear to be an overstatement (hyperbole?) but the actual data is in their 3Q (Aug) 2022 Investor Presentation. Their presence in Caribbean, Central America and South America is material but it is not necessarily "huge".


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

Many of the indexes are back to their June lows. The VIX is near a peak again at ~ 31. Another good day to add a little to many beaten down areas. It might be a while before we start to see inflation receding and there could be a little further downside, but w many of these stocks down 50+% from their peaks it is a good time to add $300. IMO


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

BCE just getting hammered lately!


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

AltaRed said:


> That would appear to be an overstatement (hyperbole?) but the actual data is in their 3Q (Aug) 2022 Investor Presentation. Their presence in Caribbean, Central America and South America is material but it is not necessarily "huge".


one analysis said is about 30%. They are anywhere from number 3 to 6 in Mexico ,Peru, Chile and Columbia. Thet=y are number 3 in Canada and the combined population of those four countries is much larger then Canada,.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Covariance said:


> Not sure of the quantum in your RESP, or the exact timing. But you might consider timing a GIC with an amount equal to the tax shielded EAP avaialble for the child if it’s in the next two years. Creates a cashflow match to a predictable funding need. Notionally, set those aside as each times in. Job done. The remainder of the account, to fund withdrawals with duration longer than 2 years I would lean toward an asset allocation across the entire account that optimizes expected return for the risk you are prepared to take. Then blend it yourself instead of a one fund.


Thanks @Covariance. This does a great job of explaining what I was trying to conceptualize in my mind. I was trying to derisk the portfolio which is mainly in equities (VGRO and cash) and 5 - 6 years from draw down. However, the funds will not be exhausted for 10 to 11 years. If I knew that rates are going to level off then taper over the next while (that is what the curve is showing currently) I would dump the full GIC allocation in a 5 year. Instead, I have opted to build a 5 rung ladder at a little under $5k per rung. Alternatively, I could buy a 5 year GIC each year over the next 5 years to stay equity heavy a bit longer and leave the rest in veqt, or buy vgro.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> BCE just getting hammered lately!


why tho?
Is there a reason why this one is dropping so precipitously?


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

dubmac said:


> why tho?
> Is there a reason why this one is dropping so precipitously?


the market was down for almost everything. User dependence for phones and internet isn't going anywhere. Forget the volality and enjoy a 6.2% dividend.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

There wont be dividend cuts but don't expect dividend growth for a year or two, simply because revenue growth wont be there. Revenue may actually be down with businesses and corporations holding off on upgrades and decreasing their footprint while costs go up (wages and imported equipment). The 2023 dividend/distribution increases thread is likely to be more lean.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

dubmac said:


> why tho?
> Is there a reason why this one is dropping so precipitously?


I don't see anything too unusual about BCE. Here is a chart of the total returns (includes dividends) of BCE divided by the TSX Index. So this is a ratio.

This shows you that over several years, BCE sometimes outperforms (above the line) and underperforms (below the line). Where it sits right now is well within the range of the last 5 years, I don't see anything unusual.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> There wont be dividend cuts but don't expect dividend growth for a year or two, simply because revenue growth wont be there. Revenue may actually be down with businesses and corporations holding off on upgrades and decreasing their footprint while costs go up (wages and imported equipment). The 2023 dividend/distribution increases thread is likely to be more lean.


I agree that increases will be smaller and fewer. Many dividend champions, achievers, kings and aristocrats may stretch the timelines to still qualify for an annual increase and/or offer up the token penny just to keep the streak alive. Very few will increase at the current rate of inflation. Some may foolishly raise to get attention. I would be cautious of climbing payout ratios in 2023. Along with a review of payout ratios I will be going through my portfolio to update who has not raised since 2020. They would be the most likely to cut in 2023 if the economy and market do what many are expecting.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Nothing may seem unusual insofar as the price is concerned, but the 6-month drop _is_ unusual in contrast to others in the same business. Telus is also down, but not as much. David Berman (G&M today) writes a good summary on BCE. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is 26 & in the red, so appears attractive. I've been waiting & waiting for some banks to go on sale - but these just won't drop. I kinda feel like someone who got stood up after getting ready for a date. BCE is on the buy list now.








BCE’s dividend yield is back above 6 per cent. Here’s why that’s a buy signal


The tumbling share price and rising dividend yield of telecom stocks like BCE make them the right bet when economic clouds are moving in




www.theglobeandmail.com


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

dubmac said:


> I've been waiting & waiting for some banks to go on sale - but these just won't drop.


Which banks and what are you using to determine if they are on sale?
YTD values ...
BCE -10.8
RY -7.4
CM -18.0
TD -12.6
BNS -26.6
NA -10.2


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

cainvest said:


> Which banks and what are you using to determine if they are on sale?
> YTD values ...
> BCE -10.8
> RY -7.4
> ...


I want RY. It's close to my purchase price - I have some buy orders in for 120 right now - it dropped below 120 in July when TSX was at 18300, but won't drop now! Earnings won't be posted until early Dec. Also watching ZEB


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

CM recently has gotten my interest for 2 reasons: 1) decline YTD, and 2) opportunity to do the first half of an NG (buy on NYSE) due to low loonie. Point is ultimately to convert USD which has been accumlating into CAD. Even if I bought and CM continues to decline, the yield will tide me over until stock price exceeds my acquisition cost.

Loonie is currently approaching 72 cents but may gather some strength at the next BoC interest rate increase Oct 26. Up to about 2 weeks to make up my mind.


----------



## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

CM has my interest as well, might top up a little more on BCE and BNS if the dive continues.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

cainvest said:


> CM has my interest as well, might top up a little more on BCE and BNS if the dive continues.


yes if one was looking at out of favour bank stocks this would be my choice. Its operation is mostly Canadian but I believe they have some high quality operations in the USA even if much smaller then TD or BMO.They haven't been taken on high risk lending as they did in a different era.


----------



## Flugzeug (Aug 15, 2018)

Moved some money from RBF2010 to XGRO inside a LIRA today.

Also, added new money to XEQT in an RESP.

That’s likely it until November.


----------



## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Bought more DBM.TO


----------



## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

I saw quite a few posts mentioning buying BCE. I had a question why BCE say over another telecom like Telus? I will leave rogers out due to their recent high profile issues...


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I don't know other than BCE has long been considered a 'widows and orphan' stock by long....long time investors, including pre-boomers, especially in Eastern Canada. That was likely true, like a bank stock, when telecoms like BCE (the only publicly traded non-government telecom for a long time) was the only game in town with their franchise territory of land lines. It is not remotely the same thing today. I would think folks would prefer Telus which appears to me to be more entrepreneurial advancing non-regulated businesses in health and technology, etc.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> I don't know other than BCE has long been considered a 'widows and orphan' stock by long....long time investors, including pre-boomers, especially in Eastern Canada. That was likely true, like a bank stock, when telecoms like BCE (the only publicly traded non-government telecom for a long time) was the only game in town with their franchise territory of land lines. It is not remotely the same thing today. I would think folks would prefer Telus which appears to me to be more entrepreneurial advancing non-regulated businesses in health and technology, etc.


I hold and prefer Telus to BCE. I wanted to add to telcos to reduce volatility in the current market. Buying more Telus instead of adding to BCE would have resulted in an overconcentrated holding. My current allocation puts them roughly in equal allocation status at just over 3%. If I had to pick one or the other, I would go with Telus.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Buy both . I have held Telus for around 15 years - quite reliable, grow the divvie (plans to make 7-10% annual increases each year til 2027), while at the same time, getting established in some nichey places (Agriculture, medical imaging, etc). BCE, as Alta says, has Eastern Canada mostly locked up, and a strong media segment. Both are steady Eddie in my opinion - good foundations for any income-focused portfolio. (Don't expect a lot of growth tho, or dividend increases from BCE for a year or 2 at least). I picked up some today in the non-reg.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

dubmac said:


> Buy both . I have held Telus for around 15 years - quite reliable, grow the divvie (plans to make 7-10% annual increases each year til 2027), while at the same time, getting established in some nichey places (Agriculture, medical imaging, etc). BCE, as Alta says, has Eastern Canada mostly locked up, and a strong media segment. Both are steady Eddie in my opinion - good foundations for any income-focused portfolio. (Don't expect a lot of growth tho, or dividend increases from BCE for a year or 2 at least). I picked up some today in the non-reg.


why wouldn't they have growth the big three are essential a cartel protected by government policy.?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

All 3 are somewhat different proportions in their business lines. I think much of the content (media business) is headed the way of the unicorn so I am less of a fan of Bell and Rogers for that reason. Plus I think the cable business is mature with nowhere to go. 

Disclosure: I own all 3 but I really should have dumped Rogers at least a year ago. They are trying really hard to screw up.


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

Thanks all for the input. Learned a lot. Yes personally I feel like Telus is a telecom but at the same time they are branching out into different segments like health/ehealth and IT services which makes them more attractive then a traditional telecom.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

zinfit said:


> why wouldn't they have growth the big three are essential a cartel protected by government policy.?


I think that BCE carries more debt and has higher payout ratio that limits its growth prospects.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

I've been waiting for BCE to yield 6%. Now it is but I can't bring myself to add more.
I did buy the giant bag of meatballs at Costco today though. Delicious. But my Dr says also risky.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

dubmac said:


> I think that BCE carries more debt and has higher payout ratio that limits its growth prospects.


it is one of those Quebec based corporations and the Liberal gov' will do backflips to protect those companies. AC,Bombardier, SNC and others.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I am using all my willpower not to place anymore buy orders. BofC was rather hawkish today.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I bought a bit more BCE today - averaged down on an earlier purchase. That said, it would not surprise me to see this one go to 55's or lower with the BoC rate talk


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

londoncalling said:


> I am using all my willpower not to place anymore buy orders. BofC was rather hawkish today.


Good thing. Market will continue crashing in 2023 through the upcoming recession.









The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator


This model uses the slope of the yield curve, or the “term spread” between long- and short-term interest rates, to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.




www.newyorkfed.org


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## Buckwheat (Dec 11, 2021)

My holdings (01 December I'll be 1 year investing

APA - APA Corp
COP - ConocoPhilips
PDCE - PDC Energy
TRGP - Targa Resources
FCG - First Trust Natural Gas ETF (my only ETF)
BTE - Baytex Energy
VET - Vermilion Energy
CPG - Crescent Point Energy

Vermilion is up in the air because the wizards if the European Onion have decided to levy a 'excess profits tax' on gas, oil, and coal, and I have not settled on if I will react to that.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrBlackhill said:


> Good thing. Market will continue crashing in 2023 through the upcoming recession


I don't think crashing is the right word. This entire market decline has been very orderly... pretty calm and controlled.

I think it's just a repricing of assets based on the discount rate. A low interest rate (discount rate) inflates the present day value of all assets.

A higher interest rate brings the present day value lower. We are swinging from highly inflated back towards normal... that's not really a crash. I am a bit surprised how much it's hurting my portfolio though.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Some are buying the dip and the (oncoming??) crash. author is Philip MacKellar(?) 
He was bullish on FDP-N. I have no idea who he is, and no recommendation on FDP either.








Contra Guys: Don’t just buy the dip – buy the crash too


If you are an investor who was happy buying the dip but now have cold feet buying the crash, ask yourself why




www.theglobeandmail.com




but, I do find myself aligned with his suggestion to buy both the dip and the crash.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

james4beach said:


> I don't think crashing is the right word. This entire market decline has been very orderly... pretty calm and controlled.


In 2000-2001, was the bubble burst calm and controlled?

In 2000, it took 7 months to the S&P 500 to drop -23% from September 1st, 2000 to April 1st, 2001. In 2022, it took 9 months to the S&P 500 to drop -24% from January 1st to October 1st. Pretty similar. The only difference is that NASDAQ was on a bigger bubble and crashing faster.

People remember 2000-2001 because of the tech heavy crash which was fast and hard, but a more diversified portfolio crashed about as fast as what we're seeing at the moment.

And if I push further to analyse worldwide stocks by combining 50% US stock market and 50% ex-US on Portfolio Visualizer, it crashed -26% within 12 months back in 2000-2001 whereas it's currently crashing -26% within 9 months in 2022. Also, during the 2007-2008 crash, it took 10 months to drop -28%.

The only faster crashes from the last 50 years were the Black Monday of 1987 and the COVID of 2020. Otherwise the stock market is currently crashing as fast as 2000-2001 and 2007-2008. And we have no clue where the bottom will be, but I'm pretty sure we aren't there yet.

In 2007-2008, the biggest drop in September-October 2008 occurred about 11-12 months after the start. We've been on this crash for only 9 months. We're crashing as fast and lots of things can still happen.

But, yes, it's a "valuation crash" and it's "controlled" by the rise of rates.


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

As a matter of interest why are people looking at the passage of time as signal for a market bottom?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Covariance said:


> As a matter of interest why are people looking at the passage of time as signal for a market bottom?


Some people do that? Wow. The 5 biggest US crashes of the last 50 years bottomed after 3 months to 2 years, so I guess that time is a pretty bad indicator.


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

Employment data summary = no pivot soon.

Enjoy your HISA and long week end.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

Covariance said:


> Employment data summary = no pivot soon.
> 
> Enjoy your HISA and long week end.


True, no pivot soon, but I feel like a lot of the pain related to the next interest rate hike is now baked into the market. CM was on the verge of matching its low for the year today, so I scooped some up on the TSE at $58.35. Nice divvy. Maybe it keeps sliding but I'm now at approximately 60% cash remaining from the house sale profit, so I'll keep watching for bargains.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Buckwheat said:


> My holdings (01 December I'll be 1 year investing
> 
> APA - APA Corp
> COP - ConocoPhilips
> ...


you have done well


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> True, no pivot soon, but I feel like a lot of the pain related to the next interest rate hike is now baked into the market. CM was on the verge of matching its low for the year today, so I scooped some up on the TSE at $58.35. Nice divvy. Maybe it keeps sliding but I'm now at approximately 60% cash remaining from the house sale profit, so I'll keep watching for bargains.


agree the market needs at least another 1 and 1/4 increase in the Fed prime .Be defensive for the next 6 months. When we see a the reverse on the reversion between the 2 year money and the 10 year bonds that is the time to buy.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Used up my spare cash in my TFSA first this this morning to buy more shares in Telus @$26.97


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

Just came in to some six figure money. What to do????!! Half is earmarked to assist kids in buying a home 5+ years out. The rest is meant to produce income and growth. 

thinking VBAL for the kids. 

how about BNS, T and AQN for the rest?


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

Money172375 said:


> Just came in to some six figure money. What to do????!! Half is earmarked to assist kids in buying a home 5+ years out. The rest is meant to produce income and growth.
> 
> thinking VBAL for the kids.
> 
> how about BNS, T and AQN for the rest?


Congrats on the windfall. Hope it wasn't at the expense of losing a loved one. If so, my condolences. 

Of all the Canadian banks, BNS seems like a rudderless ship. The poorest performance of the bunch. Curious what makes you lean toward that one? My preferences are TD and CM.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Money172375 said:


> how about BNS, T and AQN for the rest?


BNS and T I see as ok. AQN is more of a gamble IMO.



AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> Of all the Canadian banks, BNS seems like a rudderless ship. The poorest performance of the bunch. Curious what makes you lean toward that one? My preferences are TD and CM.


Higher dividend? Though CM isn't far behind.


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## Buckwheat (Dec 11, 2021)

*What are you buying? 2022*

Nothing. I went all cash just now. Putin and then Everything Else. I don't jump easily*,* but I jumped. Re-entering will depend mainly on Putin & company, but other stuff as well. My returns have been good, but if the wrong events occur in Ukraine, the market could dive 20 to 40% in no time, in my view.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> True, no pivot soon, but I feel like a lot of the pain related to the next interest rate hike is now baked into the market. CM was on the verge of matching its low for the year today, so I scooped some up on the TSE at $58.35. Nice divvy. Maybe it keeps sliding but I'm now at approximately 60% cash remaining from the house sale profit, so I'll keep watching for bargains.


This is looking like a BIG "owie" at the moment. Down 4.1% today! Fingers burnt!


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

CM:US is on my list primarily as the first half of an NG to convert to CAD. Primarily waiting for the loonie to drop below 72 cents before pulling the trigger but also don't mind CM dropping in price in the meantime. The decision is getting more difficult waiting much longer given both trends are in my direction....and that luck can't hold indefinitely.

I might just hold at the first half of the NG given where its stock price is. A reasonable chance of it falling below $40USD and picking up a gain sometime in 2023. I don't want to hold it long term.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> This is looking like a BIG "owie" at the moment. Down 4.1% today! Fingers burnt!


TSX has had a lot of owie moments lately. Quite a few of my holdings have dropped really badly.

I think my worst position right now is TransAlta


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

james4beach said:


> TSX has had a lot of owie moments lately. Quite a few of my holdings have dropped really badly.
> 
> I think my worst position right now is TransAlta


Dividend yield is up to 7.15% after the close today. How sustainable do you figure that is?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> Dividend yield is up to 7.15% after the close today. How sustainable do you figure that is?


You mean for TA? I see a dividend of just 1.8% unless I'm reading the TMX page incorrectly.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

james4beach said:


> You mean for TA? I see a dividend of just 1.8% unless I'm reading the TMX page incorrectly.


You are correct. I mistakenly brought up TransAlta Renewables on my screen.


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

AlwaysMissingTheBoat said:


> Congrats on the windfall. Hope it wasn't at the expense of losing a loved one. If so, my condolences.
> 
> Of all the Canadian banks, BNS seems like a rudderless ship. The poorest performance of the bunch. Curious what makes you lean toward that one? My preferences are TD and CM.


BNS is my smallest bank hold ing. It’s also been beat up a bit. I’m overweight TD as a former employee.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Money172375 said:


> BNS is my smallest bank hold ing. It’s also been beat up a bit. I’m overweight TD as a former employee.


Money, are you gradually scaling out of that heavy holding in TD? This happens to a lot of employees who accumulate shares as compensation. Sometimes you can be left with a pretty significant overweight position, which can be dangerous. Think of how many people in both tech and energy have gotten screwed by their large shareholdings.

I think it's always a good idea to gradually liquidate that kind of thing and reinvest the money in a diversified portfolio. I'm doing the same thing with some private equity that I own, have been liquidating about 20K a year and taking the tax hit.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Money172375 said:


> Just came in to some six figure money. What to do????!! Half is earmarked to assist kids in buying a home 5+ years out. The rest is meant to produce income and growth.
> 
> thinking VBAL for the kids.
> 
> how about BNS, T and AQN for the rest?


ENB; TRP; BCE; FTS, & AQN look good at these current levels. However that being said further downside is likely once the recession takes hold in a few months.


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

james4beach said:


> Money, are you gradually scaling out of that heavy holding in TD? This happens to a lot of employees who accumulate shares as compensation. Sometimes you can be left with a pretty significant overweight position, which can be dangerous. Think of how many people in both tech and energy have gotten screwed by their large shareholdings.
> 
> I think it's always a good idea to gradually liquidate that kind of thing and reinvest the money in a diversified portfolio. I'm doing the same thing with some private equity that I own, have been liquidating about 20K a year and taking the tax hit.


I’ve never sold a share of TD! I’ve been thinking about it. It represents about 18% of my portfolio. 2 considerations.

1. I don’t know my exact cost base. I was buying shares every 2 weeks for 20 years. I don’t have the statements for the first few years. Something I didn’t care to pay attention to in my early 20s.

2. I’m trying to keep my income low as it impacts grants and bursaries for my kids schooling. Feels like I’m gaming the system a little, but we got $15k in grants this year for my child’s first year at university.


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## Buckwheat (Dec 11, 2021)

Today I bought:
Applied DNA Sciences, Inc,* APDN*,
&
Pineapple Energy, *PEGY*, a home-solar thing.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

The BCE slump continues!


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Money172375 said:


> I’ve never sold a share of TD! I’ve been thinking about it. It represents about 18% of my portfolio.


Oh that's good, 18% is not that large. It's high, but not too crazy.

I've heard of people who end up with half the portfolio, or more, concentrated in their employer's shares.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Buckwheat said:


> Today I bought:
> Applied DNA Sciences, Inc,* APDN*,
> &
> Pineapple Energy, *PEGY*, a home-solar thing.


Hope you bought them closer to $2.00 then today's close at $2.73 which is a 36.5% jump
Applied DNA Sciences Inc. (APDN:US) | NCM Stock Price | TMX Money


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Averaged down on NFI.TO today at 8.71. This is a highly speculative buy for me. A history on my love/hate relationship with the stock can be found here. Cash position now at 8%

NFI New Flyer Industries | Canadian Money Forum


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Love MFC.TO. Have been in and out a few times on it. My hesitation to return to Manulife is I understand a big share of their market is Asia, and Asia seems to be in the dumps lately.


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## Flugzeug (Aug 15, 2018)

Bought some XGRO in RRSP just before close today. Also bought some XEQT in an RESP.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I initiated a position in AMZN this morning at 90.63 which is around what it was trading at in 2020. I have been told that supply chain disruptions are temporary and inflation is transitory so seemed like a good entry point. 

Will add if we see another 10% drop. Also, have an order in for MSFT. Cash position in equity portfolio at 7%. Have a GIC ready to redeem should any further orders be executed.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Flugzeug said:


> Bought some XGRO in RRSP just before close today. Also bought some XEQT in an RESP.


Just transferred all of Tangerine Balanced fund in my wife's RRSP and bought VGRO today. I hope we're near the bottom in markets.


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

Bought some GOOGL two days ago and bought BAM today. Should have waited to buy GOOGL today.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Order for MSFT filled today at 215.89. Had considered lowering to $212.XX this morning but forget. A few bucks a share will not make much difference (<1.5%) on a multiyear hold. Daily price swings on most stocks are greater than that. Cash position now at just over 5%. Will need to top up cash position before buying anything more.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

This I am buying 
*Earn a total annual interest rate of up to 4.90%*
on new deposits with an HSBC Canadian Dollar High Rate Savings Account. Offer ends January 27, 2023.


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## Buckwheat (Dec 11, 2021)

I bought SASOL, a South African energy company. The past week they have arranged an agreement with ArcelorMittal (the second largest steel producer in the world,) to collaborate to produce green hydrogen in Saldanha Bay to produce green steel. It has also rearranged its debt and did not need to rearrange all of it, a good sign. SASOL is on the NYSE. 

Last week they had a small disaster when some troll on Facebook made a remark about a murdered white couple being 'payback for aparthheid,' the troll claiming to work for SASOL. The brainfart was dismissed and has blown over. SASOL is up 10% today.

My best stock recently has been *APA*, which has operations in the USA, the UK (North Sea,) Egypt, and Suriname. I like all those areas of operations for the next while.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

peterk said:


> I hope we're near the bottom in markets.


Near bottom? I believe the market hasn't crashed yet. That'll happen in 2023.

That being said, buying VGRO no matter what is a good thing to do, instead of timing the market.


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## Covariance (Oct 20, 2020)

MrBlackhill said:


> Near bottom? I believe the market hasn't crashed yet. That'll happen in 2023.
> 
> That being said, buying VGRO no matter what is a good thing to do, instead of timing the market.


Hard to imagine anything better than a range bound market for equities for the time being. We have not even gotten to the recession yet. Let alone the debris trail of broken and unintended consequences related thereto.


----------



## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Bought YRI yesterday. Was tempted to sell today but think I might regret doing so.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Covariance said:


> Hard to imagine anything better than a range bound market for equities for the time being. We have not even gotten to the recession yet. Let alone the debris trail of broken and unintended consequences related thereto.


We'll be lucky to get a range-bound 12 months here. But there can always be surprises to the upside, like the end of war, or a surprise improvement in inflation.

So an investor really has to stay invested. I think it would be a huge mistake to just pull out. I have been sticking with my asset allocation plan, with very slight modifications (slightly less US index due to trend-following, and a shift towards GICs to reduce duration risk).


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought Keyera, Roche Holdings[ADR] more CNQ and OXY . OKY has been the focused for Berkshire buying. It is sitting on a mountain of cash and wouldn't surprise me if he bought the whole operation. Anyways his bullish position on this stock should say at lot about its quality. CNQ is just a big divisfied energy stock and I suspect it will buying back a big chunk of shares before 2023. Nice dividend to boot. I use a point system to score stocks. When I scored 30 Canadian stocks which I own or have on a watch list this stock was the clear top point leader. For my US and foreign stocks I went through the same point process and Roche Holdings was the clear cut winner.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> CNQ


Buy high 
Sell low.
way to success.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Buy high
> Sell low.
> way to success.


Trading at 8.5 PE, trading at a solid cash flow ratio, has a 4%dividend , has an extremely low debt level, a high quality very diversified energy stock with proven superior management. I am thinking the other way buy low and sell high.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> I am thinking the other way buy low and sell high.


You bought Google shares last January 
Could have purchased it cheaper today.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Most stocks bought last January can be purchased cheaper today. Most investors time horizons are greater than 11 months.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

londoncalling said:


> Most stocks bought last January can be purchased cheaper today. Most investors time horizons are greater than 11 months.


If only investors could live forever


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> You bought Google shares last January
> Could have purchased it cheaper today.
> [/QUOTEas I said then will come. talk about that in 5 years. Nothing is certain about investing or the future. All I know is that I Have averaged over 20% per annum going back to 2009. Would be curious what your investments have done.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Meanwhile QQQ averaged 23% CAGR from Jan 2009 to Dec 2021.

The 2010s was the easiest decade ever. Let's see how it goes with the 2020s.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Haven't you heard? Investing is always easy... everyone gets rich with no effort! lol

I was looking at my asset allocation on the weekend. I am slightly under-weight in fixed income so I'll be buying there. I just bought a 5 year GIC today.


----------



## MK7GTI (Mar 4, 2019)

picked up KO, PG, JNJ, and WMT today.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

james4beach said:


> Haven't you heard? Investing is always easy... everyone gets rich with no effort! lol
> 
> I was looking at my asset allocation on the weekend. I am slightly under-weight in fixed income so I'll be buying there. I just bought a 5 year GIC today.


I did the same . Got 5.1% for a 1 year .


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Got 5.15% for a one-year. Couldn't believe my eyes on that rate until I got confirmation as bought!


----------



## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

Bought some more ETHY and BTCY yesterday. Bought more VET today.


----------



## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Wow lucked out - A week ago I sold 100 shares XOM for $111 (-1%) and bought some AAPL for $135 (+9%) and META for $88 (+26%)


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

peterk said:


> Wow lucked out - A week ago I sold 100 shares XOM for $111 (-1%) and bought some AAPL for $135 (+9%) and META for $88 (+26%)


nice entry point. I figure the market will find a lower low then any other 2022 low.That will happen when get a real recession and that will come sometime in 2023 If I am correct I am not confident about the right strategy. I stick with stocks that produce things or services which people need regardless of a poor economy. Energy, healthcare and cybersecurity fit that bill.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

Ukrainiandude said:


> This I am buying
> *Earn a total annual interest rate of up to 4.90%*
> on new deposits with an HSBC Canadian Dollar High Rate Savings Account. Offer ends January 27, 2023.


Thanks for the heads-up. Sounded interesting but just chatted with a rep. 

The interest would be applied on new deposits and offer ends on January 27, 2023 post which the interest rate will revert to regular rates.

Their regular rates aren't great.


----------



## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Topped up my DIV.TO ... No brainer for long.


----------



## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Personally looking for deals in oil stocks, but not too many deals out there. Perhaps MFC.TO once the SP500 pulls back a bit.


----------



## Fisherman30 (Dec 5, 2018)

What does everyone think about AQN right now?


----------



## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Fisherman30 said:


> What does everyone think about AQN right now?


Renewable energy - run as fast as you can. Wind and Solar is not sustainable.


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## Ricehammer4416 (Jan 6, 2021)

Bought a bit of CM on this most recent dip today. Yes it's an underperformer, but the div is decent and safe.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Fisherman30 said:


> What does everyone think about AQN right now?


See here ...









Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (AQN)


Closure of the Kentucky Power deal potentially in January will change the metrics quite a bit. That said, the CEO felt compelled to issue a letter to shareholders yesterday to try and calm the waters. Time will tell. Along with the letter full of warm fuzzies but little clear direction, which...




www.canadianmoneyforum.com


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Got some dividends today and redistributed amongst FTS, EMA, BEP.UN and CSH.UN


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Bit more VGRO and XIU - just reinvesting the distributions as they're received. It's a shame it was right after a strong run-up though.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Bought more Stingray RAY-A.TO


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Not exciting but posting because it is something I am buying. Bought a redeembable 1 year GIC today with cash from emergency funds. We have increased contributions to our emergency fund the past two years and will be used to pay down the mortgage in less than a year's time. The bulk of our fixed income is shorter duration and can be accessed with little notice or effort. As much as I would like to purchase a longer term for a better rate that is not the purpose for this money. I am enjoying a small spread over the current interest rate but am still losing buying power to inflation.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Topped some CM. Maybe too early.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

fstamand said:


> Topped some CM. Maybe too early.


I lament missing the opportunity to pick up CM a few months back on NYSE at about $40USD and a ~71 cent loonie. If I had put in a limit order at $40 instead of just watching day to day, I might have captured it (low of $39.72 at one point of a trading day).


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I'm watching banks as well. IMO, there are still a few shocks to come with rate increases, etc. I think more opportunities are ahead


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Initial position (returning) to SU.TO. Might have been a bit too early, so will average in if it goes significantly lower.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Added a bit of Loblaw this morning.


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## AlwaysMissingTheBoat (8 mo ago)

gardner said:


> Added a bit of Loblaw this morning.


Well, Galen Weston hopes you donate your Optimum points to the food bank. Mmmkay?


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Grabbed a few NPK.


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Right now I am not adding positions to any broad market equities. Am looking close at the oil price now. Being new to oil stocks I am still puzzled whether their action precedes or follows the price in oil. ENB.TO at multi-month highs while oil at multi-month lows as one example.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Faramir said:


> Right now I am not adding positions to any broad market equities. Am looking close at the oil price now. Being new to oil stocks I am still puzzled whether their action precedes or follows the price in oil. ENB.TO at multi-month highs while oil at multi-month lows as one example.


Not exactly the same market.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

fstamand said:


> Not exactly the same market.


And ENB just had a good report like a week or two ago and raised dividend.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Bought Emerson , Costco and Home Depot. Great business operations and I certain they will give solid returns over the next 5 years. Emerson is a leader in building the plumbing for the transition to a green economy.They are doing a lt of business in industrial and commercial automation. Costco has a powerful moat and business. It trades at a high multiple but that has been the case for 20 years. HD is just a very, very solid leader with a very strong moat. When we get over the coming recession it will do well. When home building drops off they pick up the slack with home renovations. I have always held a good basket of US stocks. If one wants exposure to tech, industrial, health and consumer discretionary the TSE is quite limited. Inside an RRSP or RRIF they are treated the same as Canadian stocks. The other advantage is diversification of currency exposure. and the international exposure these large US stocks have.


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## Emjay85 (Nov 9, 2014)

Added to small position in Origin Materials (orgn) in the renewable plastics space. Small speculative play but seems to be the way the world is going with green materials.


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

anyone have comments on BTE? Baytex energy.


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

Faramir said:


> anyone have comments on BTE? Baytex energy.


Just bought some today. It is usually one of BNN advisor Eric Nuttal's top picks. There will be an oil supply shortage for a few years and it has great assets in cheap area to produce.


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Jimmy said:


> Just bought some today. It is usually one of BNN advisor Eric Nuttal's top picks. There will be an oil supply shortage for a few years and it has great assets in cheap area to produce.


thanks for that. My only hesitation on oil, is China seems to be turning over into a recession along with the rest of East asia. I know there is supply problems though, and oil has really come off its yearly highs.


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

Faramir said:


> thanks for that. My only hesitation on oil, is China seems to be turning over into a recession along with the rest of East asia. I know there is supply problems though, and oil has really come off its yearly highs.


BTE is near its 2022 low. I think much of the bad news like a recession maybe priced in. You could wait til mid 2023 though to be safe. These cos will produce returns of ~ 30% w oil at $75 even if production is flat. Normally the energy area is very volatile but looks pretty stable over the next few years anyway.


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

Jimmy said:


> BTE is near its 2022 low. I think much of the bad news like a recession maybe priced in. You could wait til mid 2023 though to be safe. These cos will produce returns of ~ 30% w oil at $75 even if production is flat. Normally the energy area is very volatile but looks pretty stable over the next few years anyway.


thanks for that. Looking at TRP now as well. Seem to have fallen lately on an oil spill. ENB seems a more diversified play so looking at that as well.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Have orders in place for ATD and TRP. The TRP bid may trigger before end of the year but I don't expect to see ATD in my portfolio based on its current performance and love by analysts.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Could have made my CM purchase on the NYSE today (2.5 year low) but I didn't like that I would be paying for a dividend, i.e. ex-dividend date is Dec 23rd. I won't pay up to get a dividend. I'd rather a lower ACB post dividend date. There will be another opportunity, if not this year, then no doubt in the next 3 months or so.


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## OneSeat (Apr 15, 2020)

If I buy a Canadian bank on the NYSE I presume it is still a Canadian stock. In other words no "US stock complications" for tax purposes or inclusion in a TFSA?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

OneSeat said:


> If I buy a Canadian bank on the NYSE I presume it is still a Canadian stock. In other words no "US stock complications" for tax purposes or inclusion in a TFSA?


I think that's true, though someone correct me if I'm wrong.

After you buy it in USD, you can even ask the broker and ask them to journal the shares over to your Canadian account. TD Direct Investing lets you do this yourself through the online interface using "transfer securities", where you can choose the shares and move them to your Canadian account.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

It is the same stock. Same CUSIP number. There are a lot of Canadian stocks interlisted on US stock exchanges.


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## OneSeat (Apr 15, 2020)

james4beach said:


> After you buy it in USD, you can even ask the broker to journal the shares over to your Canadian account.


No need with BMO-IL, there is no separation. The same account holds both CAD and USD currency and I can buy or sell with either.

Thank you both for your quick replies.


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## Benting (Dec 21, 2016)

Bought TD, from matured 3 years GIC ladder. In time to catch the dividend with 2% DRIP discount. Betting it will perform better than GIC in 3 years


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## Benting (Dec 21, 2016)

In X'mas shopping mood. Bought 1000 BB, short term.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Bought TRP. Sold this at 72.48 earlier this year.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

Benting said:


> In X'mas shopping mood. Bought 1000 BB, short term.


I did as well. A bit risky 😬


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## Benting (Dec 21, 2016)

fstamand said:


> I did as well. A bit risky 😬


Haha, of course there is a risk. But it is at a point so low that would go anywhere but up, I hope. 
Still remember I bought a few share for over $98 and sold for $104+, a decade ago.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

my simplification plan has begun. Will start the year with basically Canadian dividend stocks in the TFSA . Will try to keep around 10 . I like the idea of a dividend ETF but I don't like the high MERs .In our RRIFs currently everything is in HISAs and 1 year GICs with the exception for 10% in XEG . As the year unfolds I intend to be 75% in VUN and the balance fixed income. I will be waiting for positive news on inflation and recessionary signals to make my move to VUN . Yes I know people will pile on against me over market timing. I don't call it market timing to me it is aligning investments with the clear trends . It got me through 2022 and the covid years and I believe it will get me through 2023.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I bought more bonds (XBB) today while rebalancing my RRSP. After buying XBB, I'm back to my 50% target weight in bonds.

I still have to buy more bonds & GICs in my taxable account. Looks like bonds are really tanking again.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I bought more XIU today for Canadian market exposure.

Earlier, I had sold (trimmed back) some of my 5-pack a few days ago while realizing cap gains and adjusting position sizes. *I've now reinvested the money back into XIU*. So there is almost no NET change to my Canadian allocation. However I did get lucky and benefit from a bit of market timing with almost 1% net drop between selling and then buying XIU today.

The only net change after all these adjustments and rebalancing is:

sold some gold (MNT and CGL.C)
bought more bonds (XBB)
no change in stocks ... still overweight in Canada
The above is based on my asset allocation plan, maintaining target weights. I plan to buy more XIC in my TFSA once we can contribute the new $6500 in January.

I do not plan to buy any more foreign or US stocks any time soon.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I've been watching INTC-Q (Intel). They are big into semiconductors, chips etc production & compete with Taiwan semiconductor. This stock is down -50% on the year. The mgmt has been building quite a few production plants in Ohio, Az. etc. Has anyone been following/buying this one? Any reason to run for the hills?


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## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

dubmac said:


> Has anyone been following/buying this one? Any reason to run for the hills?


From what I have heard they have lost a lot of ground already to amd and tsmc and lost major customers like apple. Also, the plants that are being built are still a few years from completion and some worry that the ceo will retire as well before realizing all the goals of the company.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> Will start the year with basically Canadian dividend stocks in the TFSA .


Why is not Google ?


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Why is not Google ?


I will talk Google in 4 and 1/2 years.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

zinfit said:


> I will talk Google in 4 and 1/2 years.


honestly I don’t understand how people are buying Google in January 2022 but refuse to buy Google now with nearly 50% discount.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

Ukrainiandude said:


> honestly I don’t understand how people are buying Google in January 2022 but refuse to buy Google now with nearly 50% discount.


there are a long list of growth stocks that are down a significant amount . As long as the Fed is tightening growth stocks are out of favour. I have little doubt that in 4 years Google, Microsoft and Apple will prove to be solid investments. They have billions in cash and outstanding balance sheets. I am trying to simplify my portfolio for estate planning purposes . If I was younger I would be loading up on these once we are into a recession and inflation is under control. By investing in the Vanguard total market ETFs I get a fair chunk of these three stocks.Google dominates search and email services. YouTube is an powerful entity. They just made a deal with the NFL for streaming Sunday football games.Globally there are more android phones than Apple phones. They are the third largest cloud platform operator. They have very interesting research and development on AI and robotics. Many healthcare professionals communicate through Google Health. I don't see Google going anywhere soon . It is a big part of the modern world. The current market downturns will come to pass.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I own the S&P 500 and that gives me enough tech stocks for my taste. I certainly wouldn't want _more_ than what the S&P 500 gives.

The top index holdings are: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOG


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

AltaRed said:


> Could have made my CM purchase on the NYSE today (2.5 year low) but I didn't like that I would be paying for a dividend, i.e. ex-dividend date is Dec 23rd. I won't pay up to get a dividend. I'd rather a lower ACB post dividend date. There will be another opportunity, if not this year, then no doubt in the next 3 months or so.


Is now the opportunity to buy CM?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

It is about the price it was almost exactly 6 years ago and far below the price it was (~C$82) in early January this year. It is also hard to argue with 6+% dividend yield. It is primarily a dividend play as it will likely never perform quite like a RY or TD. It may well go lower in the first half of 2023 but at some point, it needs to surge somewhat back to $70-80 range I would think.

Look at, for example, Dividend Strategy to compare some key metrics for the 6 banks.

Added: I would guess now is about as good a time as any to buy. The more cost effective buy might have been last week potentially.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

AltaRed said:


> It may well go lower in the first half of 2023


Might hit around $40 by fall.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Might hit around $40 by fall.


You are expecting a decline of 27% for CM? WOW!


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

londoncalling said:


> You are expecting a decline of 27% for CM? WOW!


That is a finger-in-the-wind WAG not reached except for the Mar-Apr 2020 debacle. A modest 2023 recession with increased loan loss provisions and reduced earnings in investment banking and wealth management is baked in already.


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## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

londoncalling said:


> You are expecting a decline of 27% for CM? WOW!


It’s currently $54 get $40-49 is not unrealistic.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> A modest 2023 recession with increased loan loss provisions and reduced earnings in investment banking and wealth management is baked in already.


I agree. CEO Dodig suggested that 2023 will not be without challenges. CM is rated 5/5 stars on Morningstar right now, but the reports suggest that the stock will stay somewhat range-bound in 2023 depending on whether mgmt can reach the goals that it has identified. "the bank now has the highest overall exposure to uninsured mortgages among its peers." not a great way to start 2023, but here we go.....


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

BMO, TD and RY has far more diverse operations especially when it comes to the USA. I don't like this bank.It misses to many boxes.


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## GGuy (Mar 21, 2018)

Bought TRP, Telus and BCE today.

Telus at 52 week low yielding 5.37%. Rare to see it yield above 5%.
BCE yielding 6.2% and TRP at 6.67%.

Great companies that I'll hold long term collecting nice divs and expect some price appreciation in a few years too.

Things could get worse first half of next year but time to start averaging in now. Lots of bad news baked in already.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

zinfit said:


> BMO, TD and RY has far more diverse operations especially when it comes to the USA. I don't like this bank.It misses to many boxes.


It depends on the reason for purchase. CM has a current yield of >6% and may pop above $80 share price (previous high) potentially by year end 2023. Not bad for a quick gain of perhaps 50% from current levels plus a downside net of 6% income yield...for a quick trade. I think that is what you are doing with some preferred stocks. I would rather do it with common equity that has more reasons to pop than just GoC5 bond yields.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

AltaRed said:


> It depends on the reason for purchase. CM has a current yield of >6% and may pop above $80 share price (previous high) potentially by year end 2023. Not bad for a quick gain of perhaps 50% from current levels plus a downside net of 6% income yield...for a quick trade. I think that is what you are doing with some preferred stocks. I would rather do it with common equity that has more reasons to pop than just GoC5 bond yields.


yes but I can get a decent yield on BMO ,RY or TD. I am not chasing this for another 1.5 or 1.9% .TD or RY have a proven record of getting a high ROE and ROC. They also have higher quality management over the years. For a value pick I would take BMO over CM.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Ukrainiandude said:


> It’s currently $54 get $40-49 is not unrealistic.


It's possible. $9 on a $54 stock is a large spread.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

will be interested what sort of credit losses CM will experience in 2023. If it is bad what will give the stock price a bounce?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

zinfit said:


> yes but I can get a decent yield on BMO ,RY or TD. I am not chasing this for another 1.5 or 1.9% .TD or RY have a proven record of getting a high ROE and ROC. They also have higher quality management over the years. For a value pick I would take BMO over CM.


You didn't read what I wrote. CM has the 'near term' potential for a solid yield PLUS a significant cap gains gain (percentage) bounce if market price bounces back to $80 territory from circa $55. I'd look at it as possibly a one year hold, maybe a bit more, just as you would on some of your pref purchases. I didn't say anything about a long term hold but it has the most potential of the big banks right now for that kind of cap gains bounce in 2023. Short term trade, nothing more.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

AltaRed said:


> You didn't read what I wrote. CM has the 'near term' potential for a solid yield PLUS a significant cap gains gain (percentage) bounce if market price bounces back to $80 territory from circa $55. I'd look at it as possibly a one year hold, maybe a bit more, just as you would on some of your pref purchases. I didn't say anything about a long term hold but it has the most potential of the big banks right now for that kind of cap gains bounce in 2023. Short term trade, nothing more.


I did I just figure there is more risk on the downside for the stock price. They are pretty dependant on Canadian lending and they could be looking at a lot of credit losses . The other three I mentioned have strong footholds in the USA. The average debt to income for the Canadian consumer is at record high levels and is much worse than the US situation.A recession will be very hard on this bank. Time will tell


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I'm mostly interested in CM for the yield - not so much for the cap gain right now.
If the share price survives the next 12 months without significant damage, why sell it? 
I mean, I understand that if the share price drops to the point that it is a value trap, then yes, I agree it is risky.
But over the long term, this bank is holding a significant number of mortgages, and, as these mortgages are renewed at higher rates, it should improve credit spreads for CM...no?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

It depends on what one's alternative opportunities are and what one already holds. There will be different reasons for investors considering (or not) this stock.

I own the other banks Zinfit was talking about as my 'buy and hold' assets so I clearly do not need to add CM to the mix for an overweighted position in banks. For me, it would simply be a short term cap gains opportunity with a >6% yield paying me to 'roll the dice' on this one with USD cash that I don't otherwise have a use for. It is either that (buy on the NYSE) or add to my ZSP.U holding. Something I will be contemplating over the next 2-3 months as I think the market will go lower in the short term.

P.S. It could be a value trap given its current price is not unlike what it was some years ago. When one looks at the 5 year stock charts of many of the high yielding stocks on TSX 60 stocks by dividend yield — DividendStrategy.ca they are pretty anemic. That said, CM had a strong 52 week high at one point suggesting it has potential.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

dubmac said:


> I'm mostly interested in CM for the yield - not so much for the cap gain right now.
> If the share price survives the next 12 months without significant damage, why sell it?
> I mean, I understand that if the share price drops to the point that it is a value trap, then yes, I agree it is risky.
> But over the long term, this bank is holding a significant number of mortgages, and, as these mortgages are renewed at higher rates, it should improve credit spreads for CM...no?


I thought the same when I bought BNS years ago. The return has been alright but from a total return perspective I would have been better served buying TD which I eventually did. I think the posts made by yourself and others in this thread provide a good analysis. I don't own CM but that yield is tempting. If I was looking to add a stock for income with potential upside this would be a strong candidate.


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## Faramir (11 mo ago)

nobleea said:


> Bought TRP. Sold this at 72.48 earlier this year.


Bought that one as well.


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