# Anyone Know what's going on with Dundee REIT (D.UN)



## RedRose (Aug 2, 2011)

I know all Reits have taken a blow but this one keeps going down. :frown:


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

They have a few, which one are you talking about? 
Like you said, REIT and utilities are taking a beating because of rising bond yields. The will be slowing QE, which will make is worse.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

RedRose said:


> I know all Reits have taken a blow but this one keeps going down. :frown:


Really? Have you seen the 5 year chart? It was $10 just a few years ago. Now it's $30, or 300% in just a few years, not including yield distribution. Were you expecting straight up nonstop? I know it has doubled in 1 year before and I think that has made a lot of people losing perspective and hoping for the same 100% increase each and every year, right?


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## PatInTheHat (May 7, 2012)

This one in general has been doing just fine compared to other REITs. Especially compared to US ones


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## RedRose (Aug 2, 2011)

I guess I just bought in at a high point. :rolleyes2:

The lovely dividends are still coming in.:encouragement: 

It is just the paper loss that was bothering me as I am a newbie to investing, learning as I go.

Thank you All for your replies :biggrin:


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Are we talking about D or DI. I know all are down but a little clarification please.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

RedRose said:


> I know all Reits have taken a blow but this one keeps going down. :frown:


D.UN is up about 1.3% so far today. I however don't think the downward trend (REITs) is over just yet...?


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

D.UN was on a tear from 2009 until January this year. I'm hoping it comes back to $10. If only...

Interest rates are playing with REITs, they are getting hurt now and will more so going forward. Time to buy as prices drop.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

The other reits are up today too & bond yields are down on the news that Summers quits pursuit of Fed job
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/16/markets-usa-bonds-idUSL2N0HC0XR20130916

Over the long term I think if/when bond yields go back up, reit prices will go down if the current trend is any indication, because they seem to be behaving a lot like bonds.


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## RedRose (Aug 2, 2011)

I apologise for not clarifying.

It is D.UN I bought at $36 a couple of months ago and now they are $30.

I am learning that I will have to wait and look at the long term.

I agree it has been coming up the last few days. :encouragement:


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

the dundee reits - D.UN & DI.UN - have fallen more than median reits in canada, back to buying levels of 2 years ago.

analysts say there is fear of looming office vacancies in calgary & toronto.

some high-profile tenants are not renewing. Law firm borden ladner gervais is leaving scotia place in toronto, also telus is vacating its leased premises in calgary & building its own 58-storey sky tower.

TD analysts say not to worry, flourishing tables to show that, historically, dundee has always been able to fill vacancies quickly.

however, if big oil sells off seriously on a global scale, the impact across alberta's economy would be grave. Hasn't some business prof at U of Calgary just gone on the record to say, somewhat alarmingly, that calgary could be the next detroit, the town is a potential one-industry cripple?

EDIT: i dug this thread out of the archives & it put itself here; but shouldn't it be under Individual Stocks ...


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

I checked the Scotia Capital analyst report.
They are not as bullish as TD.

They are forecasting only a 1.2% total return for Dundee, while the office properties sector forecast is 5.5%.
They are also forecasting only a 0.7%-1.5% same property NOI growth for 2014.

That is _anemic_.

Dundee is trying to aggressively buy back stock, but it's not working.
At some point, the buybacks will run out of steam.
They have several large leases coming up for renewal between 2014 and 2016.

I haven't looked at the average term remaining on their mortgages, but commercial refinance rates have gone up in the last 8 months or so.


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

None of that should directly impact DI.UN, though. I've actually been quite pleased with their performance as of late - quality acquisitions, high and improving occupancy rates, increased rent per square foot, decreasing exposure to Deutsche Post. It's a shame its stock price isn't reflective of it. I just figure it's beaten up more than the median REITs because of its smaller size and foreign nature.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

thankx harold. Dundee - plain old dundee - office buildings in tto & western canada - has got options now, i see. These are fairly recent. Calls are _anemic_.

to a dumb cookie the D.UN charts are looking bullish. Stochs, RSI.

ps i'll go back & check that td report. for all i know the big green is their principal banker or their principal underwriter or both.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> ... Hasn't some business prof at U of Calgary just gone on the record to say, somewhat alarmingly, that calgary could be the next detroit, the town is a potential one-industry cripple? ...


Hmm ... I thought they'd developed more alternatives than when I was there in '86. I'm not thinking they won't take a big hit but I'm doubting the Detroit "bulldoze neighboughoods & go bankrupt" type situation. I haven't been keeping tabs on it though ....


Cheers


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

Comparing Calgary to Detroit seems a bit extreme. Alberta's resources [oil, natural gas, etc.] are commodities, whereas Detroit's cars are a consumer good. People don't need to buy new cars. Furthermore, cars are a purchase most make once every few years - not frequently. Sure, commodity prices are volatile and the industry is riddled with environmentalists and politicians, but the resources are necessary for many aspects of business and living. Until we stop buying Alberta's oil [and other resources], or come up with a new, more efficient way of powering our lives, I wouldn't say there's a concern.

If I'm not mistaken, Calgary's financial industry has grown quite a bit over the past couple years too.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

In addition to Dundee (D.UN), the main players in the office building business are Artis (AX), Allied (AP), and Brookfield Office Properties (BPO).
The latter, is however, globally diversified and has properties in Australia, the UK, and of course the US so perhaps it is not an entirely apples-to-apples comparison.
Artis also has presence in the US, which they have been increasing since 2010.

Anyhow, D.UN is clearly underperforming the other ones by a wide margin.
All of them were moving more or less in unison until this spring, before the taper FUD started.
Since then, the divergence is clear.

BPO's global diversification, superior quality of properties, and perhaps more professional management has enabled them to deliver a much better return.

This chart does not include distributions, therefore, the total return of D.UN, AX, and AP is slightly better than the % below shows.


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## Longwinston (Oct 20, 2013)

I lived in Calgary for 12 years and someone comparing it to Detroit should be laughed off the stage. Unbelievable. Detroit was run by corrupt politicians for decades.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Longwinston said:


> I lived in Calgary for 12 years and someone comparing it to Detroit should be laughed off the stage. Unbelievable. Detroit was run by corrupt politicians for decades.


How are the corrupt politicians in Detroit any different than the mayor of Toronto or the PMO/senate scandal in Ottawa? I don't see Calgary, Toronto or Ottawa going bankrupt in the foreseeable future. I do agree that the finances of Detroit were horribly mismanaged for a very long time but at some level aren't many politicians corrupt in some way, shape, or form. I think to compare Detroit to Calgary is absurd as well. The fact that the entire Detroit economy relied on the manufacture of a product that has a long time replacement rate in a horrible macro economy is more the reason for the troubles of that city than would be likely to occur in Calgary. The term corrupt politician seems a bit repetitive. Kind of like saying someone is a dishonest liar. :tongue-new:

Cheers


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## Longwinston (Oct 20, 2013)

londoncalling said:


> How are the corrupt politicians in Detroit any different than the mayor of Toronto or the PMO/senate scandal in Ottawa? I don't see Calgary, Toronto or Ottawa going bankrupt in the foreseeable future. I do agree that the finances of Detroit were horribly mismanaged for a very long time but at some level aren't many politicians corrupt in some way, shape, or form. I think to compare Detroit to Calgary is absurd as well. The fact that the entire Detroit economy relied on the manufacture of a product that has a long time replacement rate in a horrible macro economy is more the reason for the troubles of that city than would be likely to occur in Calgary. The term corrupt politician seems a bit repetitive. Kind of like saying someone is a dishonest liar. :tongue-new:
> 
> Cheers


There are degrees of corruption to be sure. The corruption senate expense "scandal" while getting lots of media play, is very, very small potatoes and at the dull edge of corruptness for sure. The rot in Detroit was from top to bottom. The same people running the show were the same people benefitting from the benefits they would vote for themselves. It was full of rot, for 50+ years. The wonder, to me, isn't that they went bankrupt, it's that it took so long.

Rob Ford is a lot of things, but I have yet to hear of any corruption charges. Maybe I am behind on the news cycles.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Globe & Mail commentator Joseph Arvai wasn't writing about individual corrupt politicians in detroit or calgary or any other city. He was writing about a housing market that he - along with many experts including the OECD - believes is overheated. He was writing about risks faced by a city with a one-industry economic base.

Arvai, a former michigan resident, holds a chair in geography at the university of calgary. Globe editors clearly thought that his message was legitimate enough to publish.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ty-could-be-the-next-detroit/article15820368/

parties denying that any harm could befall resource-based canada - particularly resource-based provinces such as alberta - in the event of a global economic downturn are perhaps blinkering themselves imho.

i for one believe that a free press benefits from diverse points of view. Arvai's view may be exaggerated, it may even be far out in left field, but i don't feel that it's a lightweight opinion to be scoffed at.

returning to Dundee, the market has beaten up its share price. One of the reasons is softening vacancy rates in key calgary & toronto office properties. Just upthread, HC gives some valuable insight into why the beating might continue.


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## Longwinston (Oct 20, 2013)

His 'analysis' is flawed. He doesn't even mention corruption when speaking of Detroits slow motion meltdown which leads me to believe he has an alternative agenda. Couple that with the fact that Calgary isn't close to being a one industry town and there are no nearby municipalities where people are fleeing to leave Calgary, leads me to believe that he does have an agenda. To top it off, I read his byline. He is the chair of 'sustainable energy' ergo, not oil. He therefore doesn't like the oil industry and very likely has an agenda in convincing other people not to like it either.
That's fine, but, as a reader, you should use critical thinking as I have and realize his bias most likely stems from this agenda. He presents absolutely no factual evidence to back up his preposterous claim either, which is telling.

Calgary has almost nothing in common with Detroit. The article is poor, to put it kindly.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

humble_pie said:


> Just upthread, HC gives some valuable insight into why the beating might continue.


The beatings will continue until morale improves. :smile-new: My eyes are fixated on REITs these days but I feel the need to restrain buying until February when the taper talk continues.


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## Quotealex (Aug 1, 2010)

Why is it that Dundee has an external management structure while big REITs dont?
Why is it that management and directors owns hardly any of the outstanding shares?


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