# Intel (INTC)



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

This stock has collapsed after going up to 27 or so.

They have seen a fairly substantial drop in sales and a bit of a drop in earnings from the prior year. Right now there is a lot of weakness in chip sales for PC/desktops and they have not made much inroads into the mobile market.

They are now setting up to be a huge value again with a single-digit PE (ttm) and 4% dividend yield. They still have a moat in servers, PC and desktop chips. I think they are now again representing value at this price which argues for stability of their markets rather than for future growth. I also think that with their massive R&D they will have success penetrating into mobile chips in the next couple of years.

I think 19-20 will be a good entry point although it may never get there. Another option could be to sell a put at that level and just collect the income if it doesn't drop. If you want to secure yourself from a big drop (which I think is quite unlikely from these levels) one could buy a put at a lower price to protect on the downside. In big, strong, leader type companies I would just usually sell a slightly out of the money put option for about 6-12 months in the future and let them rebound. The disadvantage of the put strategy is you lose the dividends and you don't get the benefit of the upside. Another option some people use is to buy the stock but sell a covered call out of the money but this strategy will also cause you to lose out on the upside. Alternatively you can play a strangle where you sell a covered call (after buying the stock) and also sell a put.

Anyone else think of picking up some INTC? If so they why so. If not then why not. Discussion appreciated.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

PMREdmonton said:


> This stock has collapsed after going up to 27 or so.
> 
> They have seen a fairly substantial drop in sales and a bit of a drop in earnings from the prior year. Right now there is a lot of weakness in chip sales for PC/desktops and they have not made much inroads into the mobile market.
> 
> ...


of coarse i am thinking of picking up some.
are we stopping buying PCS?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

The only reason I'm not buying INTC, because my wife used to work for them and has plenty of shares in brokerage account.... Intel has a huge growth potential in 3rd world countries


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

One of my 1st tech stocks that I bought/held & drip, and now pretty much nearing my original purchase price, so I'm definitely adding more [in tranches].


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> One of my 1st tech stocks that I bought/held & drip, and now pretty much nearing my original purchase price, so I'm definitely adding more [in tranches].


and to add on to my post.
it may go lower.
it is holding really well today though.
after all housing mkt is exceptional:biggrin:


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I'm bearish Intel long term, they can't complete their product pipeline unless there is enough demand for their high end desktop/server chips to warrant building new fabrication plants. I think PCs will be for the high end consumers while everyone else chooses lower power/cost/margin tablets or notebooks that run Android/iOS/Windows RT.


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

I just read an article in the October Wired magazine that was talking about Intel's efforts to expand into the mobile space. They are working on this. According to the article, they are allowing the guy in charge of the mobile chips to rebel against the stuffy corporate culture, which is helping him deliver results. It remains to be seen whether they'll continue trending this way (helping them in the mobile space) or if the corporate culture will reign supreme.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

PMREdmonton said:


> This stock has collapsed after going up to 27 or so.
> 
> They have seen a fairly substantial drop in sales and a bit of a drop in earnings from the prior year. Right now there is a lot of weakness in chip sales for PC/desktops and they have not made much inroads into the mobile market.
> 
> ...



i will buy more at 19 bux.
keep on selling


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Atom processor was supposed to be Intel's saving grace in the mobile space. They started putting them into netbooks/nettops. However Atom was always (and still is) not suitable for true mobile application. The chips are more powerful than ARM but they can't beat ARM in TDP (power) or price.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

ddkay said:


> Atom processor was supposed to be Intel's saving grace in the mobile space. They started putting them into netbooks/nettops. However Atom was always (and still is) not suitable for true mobile application. The chips are more powerful than ARM but they can't beat ARM in TDP (power) or price.


sell me ur shares 
i am buyng
i will buy today at MOC


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I don't own this.. good luck


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

ddkay said:


> I don't own this.. good luck


thks for the good luck


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

ddkay said:


> I don't own this.. good luck


first 500 shares


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Outlook for PCs not good.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

lets put it this way kcowan.
what looks bearish now is bullish later.
but thks for the input


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

technicals
RSI convergence starting to show in the chart.
i think i bought too few.
time to load up.
my .02 cents.
thoughts?


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I think I'll buy some - I'll buy a limit order of 21.

I think I'll also sell some 20 puts for the early spring.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

we traded at 21.27 at open.
27 cents above ur limit price.
i do not think that 50 cents or even one dollar difference is a big difference but i hope u get ur limit position filled.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I just find its move up after a bad quarter and worse guidance unusual. I do wonder if there isn't another leg down that may kick in soon as investors get frustrated with their losses when it doesn't rise up much. Then again, perhaps the love affair with dividend stocks won't let it drop any further. When I first bought this stock just under 20 dollars about a year ago its prospects were better. Now the prorfound weakness of PC sales, the failed ultrabook strategy and the lack of penetration into mobile devices should drive this stock lower than it is now. I still think there is pessimism yet to come in this space with other heavyweights like Dell and HP already on the mat. In comparison, INTC has had but a trim. 

I guess I think there is more weakness to come and don't want to chase the stock momentarily blipping up so I"ll just bide my time. I do like the 20 puts though and think there is a reasonable chance the stock will fall another 10% to reach that price. I should be able to get 6% or so for the put and that will knock down prices even more.

For better or worse, the days of PC growth are probably over. INTC has to compete in the mobile space or their impressive productive capacity will all be for nought - they'll produce other people's chips based on ARMHoldings designs and receive much smaller margins. They have to compete in mobile if they want to continue to be a $100B company. Right now the market is betting against them but I happen to believe the market is wrong. I'm just not sure on what timeframe INTC will get there - they have to totally re-think a whole lot about how they design chips and optimize them for power consumption instead of computing power.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

There are a few Atom smartphones out there, Motorola Razr i being the most recent example I can think of. Here are the benchmarks of the Razr i with Atom Medfield -- it's not crème de la crème but it's still acceptable:

1) http://blog.gsmarena.com/we-benchma...-its-intel-atom-chipset-here-are-the-results/
2) http://blog.gsmarena.com/motorola-razr-i-battery-life-test-concludes-results-are-inside/

They are making some progress, much better than last year. It probably won't take more than a few generations before they match ARMH. These Medfield chips aren't LTE enabled, that should come by next generation in 2013. I don't doubt they will catch up on the design front. I'm just bearish because there's way less money to be made as a component maker in the mobile market. There is huge downward pressure on chip prices and the core of Intel's business model of selling $500 desktop and $1000 server CPUs will get shaken up.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

I've posted my distaste for this stock in the various INTC threads already started over the years.

The only stocks I've adamantly talked down pre-crash: YLO, RIM, and INTC. INTC still has the server market, just like RIM has the business market and YLO has the old-timers. Tech is dangerous. There's no reason why a smaller, more efficient technology can't translate to everything else eventually. Intel chips were a poor value for the average user even in its hay day (which is obviously a plus for investors) but now they will have to compete on value or something besides leading tech.. *Owns ARMH for years


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Why must margins be so much worse on mobile chips?

I can understand if they cost less per chip so they earn less on that basis. But why are margins going to be so much worse if they become dominant in chip production and can produce for much lower prices do to their strength in chip fabrication as well as some premium due to superior performance?


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

If tech is so volatile, why will ARM dominant for so long?

With their dominance in R&D and fabrication I can easily envision them dominating within a couple of years.

I remember at one point in time everyone thought Intel was woefully behind AMD in chip production that they could not catch up (around 2004) but within a couple of years they were far ahead again and never looked back.

I do know they have made some breakthroughs in producing thinner chips that will make them run faster and power efficient than anyone else's. There is also the issue of the 3-D chips which they have now produced with similar advantages in power and power consumption. They have a huge advantage in their R&D budget to transition these advantages into new chips built specifically for performance in mobile devices. 

I guess I just don't see ARM dominating in perpetuity given Intel's other advantages. Time will tell.

I still do see some more downside, though. I'd like to buy around 18-19 and think that will be the bottom so I'll see puts at 20 or so once they are a bit weaker so I can get a bit more premium.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

PMREdmonton said:


> If tech is so volatile, why will ARM dominant for so long?
> 
> I guess I just don't see ARM dominating in perpetuity given Intel's other advantages. Time will tell.


Of course ARM won't dominate in perpetuity. I don't marry any stock in perpetuity.. Things change overtime, and eventually I will sell ARM. Intel was a great stock for years, it just doesn't pass the smell test for me anymore. The risk is there, and the upward potential is not worth it yet imo. I don't like when I keep hearing things like "they might catch up in 2013" etc.. Sure and RIM will release a smartphone next year as well, in the meantime everyone else has progressed or deepened their brand power etc. I'll wait until they do actually "catch up" in the mobile market because the stock price will usually lag the reaction anyways. Unless they suddenly release something groundbreaking, which is unlikely given how their corporate culture was towards smartphones.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

mode3sour said:


> I've posted my distaste for this stock in the various INTC threads already started over the years.
> 
> The only stocks I've adamantly talked down pre-crash: YLO, RIM, and INTC. INTC still has the server market, just like RIM has the business market and YLO has the old-timers. Tech is dangerous. There's no reason why a smaller, more efficient technology can't translate to everything else eventually. Intel chips were a poor value for the average user even in its hay day (which is obviously a plus for investors) but now they will have to compete on value or something besides leading tech.. *Owns ARMH for years



hmmm.
I have been thinking about this post.
I do not buy stocks for their TASTE.
i like to taste scotch whiskey/wine.
i do not eat them or smell them neither touch them stocks.
I trade them.
It is that simple.
nothing out of the ordinary.
i am a very simple guy .... and a contrarian.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

thenegotiator said:


> hmmm.
> I have been thinking about this post.
> I do not buy stocks for their TASTE.
> i like to taste scotch whiskey/wine.


I'm a contrarian as well, and I would argue that buying INTC is not really contrarian yet. It's still an adored brand.

I don't taste them so to speak, but I smell the stale corporate culture and that implies a bad taste to me. What technical analysis or number can show you anything about that? How many people will want to pay $500 for a processor anymore? How many more cores can we possibly use? Their industry has changed and they ignored it

When I taste scotch, I avoid something I sense might give me alcohol poisoning when there are so many great ones to chose


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

PMREdmonton said:


> I think I'll buy some - I'll buy a limit order of 21.
> 
> I think I'll also sell some 20 puts for the early spring.


and u just cannot get it for 21 bux.
i am sure u noticed the mkt selloff today right?
maybe 19?:rolleyes2:


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Actually decided only to sell $20 puts in the end for April.


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## Snuff_the_Rooster (Oct 26, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> and u just cannot get it for 21 bux.
> i am sure u noticed the mkt selloff today right?
> maybe 19?:rolleyes2:


Yes I've been noticing the same thing and so I was forced in sub $22, with a hedge of course, until next spring.

I'd prefer $18 and maybe we'll get a chance there too.

There's just too many NDX stocks on their 200ma not to at least give it a shot after not being long any of this stuff for quite a while now.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> technicals
> RSI convergence starting to show in the chart.
> i think i bought too few.
> time to load up.
> ...





Snuff_the_Rooster said:


> Yes I've been noticing the same thing and so I was forced in sub $22, with a hedge of course, until next spring.
> 
> I'd prefer $18 and maybe we'll get a chance there too.
> 
> There's just too many NDX stocks on their 200ma not to at least give it a shot after not being long any of this stuff for quite a while now.


i thought i mentioned the above a couple of days ago.
did I not?


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> technicals
> RSI convergence starting to show in the chart.
> i think i bought too few.
> time to load up.
> ...





Snuff_the_Rooster said:


> Yes I've been noticing the same thing and so I was forced in sub $22, with a hedge of course, until next spring.
> 
> I'd prefer $18 and maybe we'll get a chance there too.
> 
> There's just too many NDX stocks on their 200ma not to at least give it a shot after not being long any of this stuff for quite a while now.


i thought i mentioned the above a couple of days ago.
did I not?


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## Snuff_the_Rooster (Oct 26, 2012)

thenegotiator said:


> i thought i mentioned the above a couple of days ago.
> did I not?


didn't look like it to me from the above quotes.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Closed at $20.49, very attractive...


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Sherlock said:


> Closed at $20.49, very attractive...


and today?
I'm really thinking it is looking quite good, just think it might take a fewyears to become obvious to everyone else.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

*Intel*

What are your thoughts on Intel.

They look reasonably valued.
They're investing in new fabs.

They're pushing to expand.
Working on server offerings, the ultrabook offerings, windows 8 laptop/tablets, and now Android phones.

I'm a little unaware of their SSD business and what their relationship with Micron is right now.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/13101-Intel-(INTC)


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## The Financial Blogger (Apr 4, 2009)

leader in their industry
low payout ratio
high dividend yield

that's a keeper for me  but I'm not buying more INTC at the moment.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

is intel about to introduce a faster, cheaper, more powerful 14 nanometer chip for tablets & smartphones at the upcoming developers' conference in san francisco?

microprocessor analyst Tom Halfhill from linley group says a 14 nanometer Atom chip from INTC could begin to draw OEMs away from chips fabricated by US licensees of british ARM Holdings. Halfhill expects intel to commence 14 nano production in 2014.

on the same day, same city, different building, it's rumoured that aapl will present a new smartphone, possibly a revised iPad. Let's not hold the breath. 10 september 2013 btw.


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