# Market Analysis Related Topics...



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

First of all, please excuse my poor English, even though I've been living in Canada for many years which I studied for high school and universities here in Canada, where I got my honor degree in computer science and mathematics and then, I pursued further education in financial related while working in financial industry. After graduated from university, I got opportunities to work at some financial firms as a Trade Settlement Officer where I got exposed to investing/trading stuff which leads me to where I'm today (after many years of learning the craft of trading and gaining experience from working as a securities trader for an equity firm) to become a full-time trader looking after my own portfolio by trading ETFs tracking S&P 500 index.

Second of all, I'm creating this thread with a purpose to gather those professional traders with liked minded on here to share and learn knowledge/skills from each other and most importantly is to make profits together while avoiding high risks. If you are a long-term investor who do not care about those short-term fluctuations in stock market movements or who do not care about technical analysis, please skip this thread or just read it for fun. If you are willing to learn the proper technical analysis stuff, I'm more than happy to recommend you books or resources so that you can learn your craft without wasting your time to read irrelevant materials. 

Lastly, this thread is mainly about market analysis stuff since most stocks get affected by each stock market movement on up/down side. By being aware of what stock market doing is likely going to help you to allocate your assets in a more effective and profitable way. By the way, if this thread is going to become unpopular on here please let me know your opinions and I'll let it to sink down to the bottom of ocean  Otherwise, I hope everyone can contribute and share your knowledge, skills or charts, but you don't have to share your secrets unless you are willing to do so :biggrin:

***** Disclosure: please notes that the content in this thread is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All the content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of me and are for entertainment purposes only. Any investment decision that results in losses or gains made based on any information on this site is not the responsibility of me ****


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

For next week, the risk is high for short-term window and I believe market is going to close in red. From the chart below, you can tell that stock market already lost momentum on the upside (from top indicator) and about to show sign of trend reversal (from middle indicator).


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Hi, etfstrader

We are in a Jupiter zone, Jupiter will trine the sun on Dec14 which should push the markets higher next week. On Dec 15 Uranus squares Pluto


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

DOW is currently dropping over 100pts. I believe there is more room on the downside over next few days.


----------



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Welcome back etfstrader. I was hoping you would come back. Your English is fine, and don't mind the noise from the non-believers. 

I was looking at your interesting chart but I don't know what the coloured lines are - are they moving averages or ? I know about Bollinger bands, but I'm not sure what the red, green and blue lines are.


----------



## Siciliano698 (Nov 29, 2010)

lonewolf said:


> Hi, etfstrader
> 
> We are in a Jupiter zone, Jupiter will trine the sun on Dec14 which should push the markets higher next week. On Dec 15 Uranus squares Pluto


There are several important geocosmics signatures unfolding through the end of the year, and even into the first five days of January. Last Thursday, December 4, Venus made a trine to Jupiter. On Monday, December 8, Jupiter turns retrograde. On December 14, the Sun will make a trine to Jupiter. This is why December 4-14 is considered a “Jupiter zone.” In this case, Jupiter is buoyant and optimistic. This period is filled with good news, like Friday’s employment reports. Equity markets usually respond favorably to Jupiter time bands like this. However, they can also correspond with important crests, after which prices decline. It will be interesting to see what happens this time, because on December 15, Uranus will square Pluto. On December 21, Uranus will change directions. And then on January 3, the Sun will conjunct Pluto and square Uranus. That is a lot of Uranus energy in a 19-day period. As mentioned before, Uranus can either be explosive breakouts above resistance or below support, or it can represent sudden reversals of trends. The reason it is interesting is that much of this time band occurs during the holiday season, when volume will be light. It may not take much to set off the fuse in either direction. And it may not be in equity markets that we see the Christmas fireworks. It may be in the precious metals and currency markets. Furthermore, it may not even be in financial markets where explosions occur. They may literally occur in geopolitical hotspots of the world, for these are signatures of danger.


With Jupiter, it is season to be jolly. Jupiter, more than any other planet, is like Santa Claus. It is the planet of good fortune and good luck, when positive, but hysteria and panic when negative. It can also be hysteria and panic when Uranus is involved. As you can see, it is all Jupiter until December 14. Then it quickly shifts to all Uranus, December 15-Janaury 5. The year may end with a bang. Let’s hope it is celebratory, and not malicious. The key word of advice for the end of this year is to stay clear of danger, and use this energy to come up with new “out-of-the-box New Year’s resolutions.” Think bold, but stay safe


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Pluto said:


> Welcome back etfstrader. I was hoping you would come back. Your English is fine, and don't mind the noise from the non-believers.
> 
> I was looking at your interesting chart but I don't know what the coloured lines are - are they moving averages or ? I know about Bollinger bands, but I'm not sure what the red, green and blue lines are.


Those are my 'secret' ingredients which take years to master in order to coming up with a chart like that. The SELL chart looks very simple, but it's very reliable on the sell side to indicate what big players are up to. As you can tell from the chart that all the signals are pointing to high risks on the LONG side for short-term time frame right now.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Thanks others for your astro post. They are quite amazing and I do aware of some friends who make consistent profitable trades from astro signals. They seem complicated for me to learn :redface:


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

DOW is dropping 168 pts so far after the market opens. Intraday market is oversold, so we are likely going to see a rebounce here, but more on the downside to come over next few days.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

This chart shows what I mean by intraday market is oversold


----------



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Very interesting. Thanks for the charts and analysis.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

DOW is dropping 268 pts so far today. STEM (Short-term) model with red circle is not oversold yet. So, I don't expect we'll see any impressive intraday rebound like the one yesterday soon and there should be more on the down side ahead.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Here is the minimum target I expect S&P500 to hit over next few days.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Oil, gas and gold sectors are the ones that have been hit heavily from today's selloff.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

It's not surprising to see only airline stocks are the ones staying in green and the whole industry is up 1% today while energy stocks are plunging.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Today's huge drop coincides with confirmation from the 3rd indicator (the bottom one) from SELL chart which shows bears are picking up strength


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

A quick look at BUY chart does not any buy signal yet. Dash blue line is a very crucial to indicate selling climax will hit soon, but so far it has not yet appeared. You can tell that it spiked up huge today (the top indicator with red line). I used this indicator to track hedging activities from big players like big banks and institutional firms that control the overall market direction.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

By the way, I just added the Disclosure part to my first post. MAKE SURE you read it carefully.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

I was wrong about this impressive intraday rally so far today. However, a close look at the chart (the red circle ones) shows the bulls have more work to do in order to convince me to change my mind from bear to bull. Besides, a big rally like the one today OFTEN means a huge drop in volatility index, but it's holding up firm so far today. If bulls are able to break above all those major resistances, then I'll get out of my short positions with either a small gain or break even. BUT I'll sit out of this rally with cash since there is NO buy signals kicking in. This is what a discipline trader should do which get me out of troubles many times in the past.


----------



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Very interesting. So far, so good.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Pluto said:


> Very interesting. So far, so good.


Thanks


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Beware of a double-top breaking down from here. I strongly believe that bears are going to strike again soon because bulls failed at major resistant areas so far.

Here is the new target if it breaks down.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Not good if there is a series of one & twos to the downside (elliott wave)

Gann said to watch the equinoxes & Solstices for major turns in the market. Uranus will be stationary direct 19 minutes of the winter Solstice.

A planetary station from Jupiter on outwards (from the sun) over 90% of the time it will be the low or high for the month within +/- 2 days

In Sept the market started falling first day of fall near the planetary station of Pluto into the Oct 15 low


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

My previous post (at 2014-12-10, 03:09 PM) about minimum target has been considered met. Not so sure about the new target yet, but there is no BUY signals at this moment and I'm continuing to hold onto my short positions. I'll wait until before market close to see if there is any positive development for bulls before making up my mind.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

From the above 60-minute Target_Met chart, it clearly showed a 3-leg down pattern, which statistics and Elliot Wave theory USUALLY show there is a 2-leg up pattern right after. Let's see if it repeats this time.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

over decade long jaws of death pattern in DJI semi log, last few months anther jaws of death pattern developed, (never seen that before 1 is bearish enough) Now these charts with the S&P breaking below moving averages with some of the moving averages turning down with the faster moving averages moving below the slower moving averages. I just do not like the look of the charts for the bulls. December seasonal strength is the only thing I see the market has going for it.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

S&P500 is about 7-pt away from meeting the new target from my post #22, which I strongly believe it will be met as I expect another strong sell-off during next week (maybe after a rebounce first). A word of caution to bears at this stage is not to be greedy further with your short trades at this moment because we might see selling climax next week, which you can judge it by yourself from below BUY chart (give me few minutes to post it :smilet-digitalpoint )


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Dash blue line from BUY chart has been triggered. Bears will get crushed from here easily since there isn't much room left on the downside.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

etfstrader said:


> S&P500 is about 7-pt away from meeting the new target from my post #22, which I strongly believe it will be met as I expect another strong sell-off during next week (maybe after a rebounce first). A word of caution to bears at this stage is not to be greedy further with your short trades at this moment because we might see selling climax next week, which you can judge it by yourself from below BUY chart (give me few minutes to post it :smilet-digitalpoint )
> 
> View attachment 2921



EtF trader did you come up with the projected number by multiplying the aprox 36 points from subtracting 2060 from 2024 then multiplying by 1.618 then subtracted that number of points from the second wave of a possible 3 that has started. Based on the fact that wave 3 is often 1.618 the length of wave one. Then looking for a wave 4 rally of a possible C wave or that of a 3rd wave. ( sorry guys that don't follow Elliott wave this might seam like mumbo jumbo )


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

I just exited all my short holdings. Don't want to get more greedy at this moment. :biggrin:


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

lonewolf said:


> EtF trader did you come up with the projected number by multiplying the aprox 36 points from subtracting 2060 from 2024 then multiplying by 1.618 then subtracted that number of points from the second wave of a possible 3 that has started. Based on the fact that wave 3 is often 1.618 the length of wave one. Then looking for a wave 4 rally of a possible C wave or that of a 3rd wave. ( sorry guys that don't follow Elliott wave this might seam like mumbo jumbo )


You are exposing my secrets :biggrin:


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

I started to LONG stock market few minutes ago. I might hold it for few days or longer depending on what BUY signals might imply.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

This 60-minute chart is one of the main reasons why I decided to long stock market.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

DOW is now up 236 pts. I strongly believe there is more rooms on the upside over next few days.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

This market is dangerous do not know if THE top is in yet. Bear market rallies can be very swift to the up side.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

lonewolf said:


> This market is dangerous do not know if THE top is in yet. Bear market rallies can be very swift to the up side.


I tried to run in front of the train this time :upset: and I believe there could be a lower low ahead, but many indicators are suggesting a few-day rebounce or a short-term rally will occur very soon.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Playing a countertrend rally with in a potential five wave down is not easy.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Intraday update with DOW up 265 pts so far........


----------



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

You are making some really good calls. Thanks for posting this.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Pluto said:


> You are making some really good calls. Thanks for posting this.


Thanks for ur compliment. I can't afford to make serious mistakes while trading only 3x leverage ETFs in a large US account lol, plus trading/investing some other large accounts at the same time.

Anyway, I Just checked in @ Old Quebec city hôtel for few days of vacations with my gf. She isn't going to happy to see me doing something else instead of spending time with her (well, she Is taking a nap now so I Can sneak on here for few mins lol.) So, I won't update my thread until Sunday when I get back. Cheers


----------



## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Well eftstrader you nailed it. The biggest 2 day rally in the S&P in years. Congratulations.


----------



## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Yeah, ditto on the good calls. Very interesting thread.

I interpret the commentary better, as I go cross eyed when I start looking at all those charts.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

You can tell from below screenshots that I trade my accounts while making those calls on here:wink:

This screenshot showed that I switched from my short position to long the market right before it went up huge over last 3-day. However, I already exited my long position on the 2nd up day with 8.3% of gain because such rally is abnormal (I rarely get out of my trades within 2-4 day of holdings, but this is one of the few exceptions.) Unlike the previous rally in mid-October where I could tell more rooms on the upside which I was very comfortable to hold for few weeks, this rally is very strange and I'm clueless to hold it further. I feel like something big is going to happen soon (maybe after the Santa Clause rally) and my bias is on the downside. Each time when I'm clueless like this (not happen very often), I prefer to sit sidelines with cash (for all of my accounts).









I showed below screenshot on this forum in another thread sometime last month to indicate that I switched from my short trade to a long position right before market went up from middle of October. Over the past few years while trading as a full-time trader, I don't always get in or out perfectly like this, but I rarely trade on the wrong side.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Anyway, it's the holiday season and I hope everyone will enjoy it. Hopefully, my thread is going to help you guys to make some money next year. If you do make some money from my thread (please make sure you read disclosure on my first post), I've a small favor to ask which is to make a small donation to those less fortunate than us or legitimate charities with an emphasis on animal shelters, poor/orphanage children and disabled Canadian soldiers who fought with their lives in order to protect our freedom. Thanks................ 

Happy holidays


----------



## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I would like to make some money using your methods, but don't see how if you will not disclose what indicators you use and how you use them.


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

This chart does not imply that we will see a bear market right away, but it does suggest something is not right with this current rally. From the chart, you see a huge volume spike on last Friday with market closed in green, which means there should be more buyers than sellers, right? Well, have a look at those block trades carrying out by big players showed a different picture. There were more sellers than buyers and the different between money flowing in and money flowing out is -$1,263.77 million (yup, we are talking about more than a billion $ flowing out of market here for SPY alone.)


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

IMO many investors on this board are long-term investors with no interest in short-term fluctuations. So, I've decided to stop posting short-term materials on here. If any of you is interested with following my charts, you can add me into your twitter account at @hungsy88.


----------



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Sorry to see you won't be posting this stuff here. There is possibly more interest than you think but I agree that there are a lot of folks who have no interest. Thanks for your contributions. 

In another post you mentioned that you read a lot at first so I'm wondering if you would give one or two book titles that you found the most helpful?


----------



## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Pluto said:


> Sorry to see you won't be posting this stuff here. There is possibly more interest than you think but I agree that there are a lot of folks who have no interest. Thanks for your contributions.
> 
> In another post you mentioned that you read a lot at first so I'm wondering if you would give one or two book titles that you found the most helpful?


Many people think that it's IMPOSSIBLE to figure out those bottoms or tops without accepting the facts that they can do it by having the proper knowledge and skills. I don't see a point to argue with those non-believers as my purpose is not here to convince anyone. All I care about is how I can generate consistent profits in my own trading accounts, which I'm happy with my returns so far as my annual average return has been somewhere 150% - 300% by trading only leverage 3x ETFs. A proven strategy with discipline and learning attitude is what it takes to make someone successful in investing/trading business.

Give me your e-mail address so I can send you 2-book to read and practice your skills. These are the only books that you need. Once you are done with reading, I'll send you some FREE websites where you can apply your knowledge and skills to analyze those market breadth indicators which will help you to avoid investing/trading on the wrong side.

I've a dentist appointment soon and other errands to take care off today. So, I'll either e-mail you later on tonight or tomorrow.


----------



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

OK, thanks. I sent a PM.


----------

