# T vs BCE vs RCI



## gibor365

Was thinking to increase my telecoms holdings... so far i have RCI and BCE (also SJR). Now in a dilemma , to increse holdings of BCE or RCI, or buy Telus  
as another option US AT&T....

What are your opnion?


----------



## Jungle

Return wise, they are all strong right now. They are calling for a $40 taget range for BCe and Telus, who knows, they are doing well and they keep raising dividends. I think T has been the winner as of late, Bell second and Roger's, you might have to be patient. 

One good comment I heard on BNN is that going forward in the future, everyone is using a smartphone with data/ internet service. Even netflix requires internet, and somebody has to provide that. Lots of revenue from that.


----------



## m3s

Jungle said:


> One good comment I heard on BNN is that going forward in the future, everyone is using a smartphone with data/ internet service. Even netflix requires internet, and somebody has to provide that. Lots of revenue from that.


Wireless infrastructure is not that expensive compared to wired either and the product itself (data) is produced for free by the user while they can charge per MB

Biggest thing is the allocation of frequencies as the airwaves fill up. Who will get the lucrative waterfront analog TV real estate? (or have they been auctioned yet)


----------



## Eder

gibor said:


> Was thinking to increase my telecoms holdings... so far i have RCI and BCE (also SJR). Now in a dilemma , to increase holdings of BCE or RCI, or buy Telus
> ....
> 
> What are your opinion?


You've just described about 30% of my portfolio...I think the answer is yes to all of the above.


----------



## nerdawar

US AT&T for you...b/c of you are also taking advantage of dollar....

Be mindful of Telecom stocks due to heavy capital investments. 

BCE/ROGERS/Telus all = similar performance on a yearly basis (in terms of competitive position...one may be down on year...but they will bounce back up the next)

I would not touch any 3 at this point in terms of valuation...but if you had to...BCE would be the one b/c it's the cheapest in terms of P/E I believe...but I would not touch it.


----------



## dubmac

why ae the telecoms up so much today? Telus is up over 4%, BCE (2.5%), RCI (3.5%).......(mind you..it's nice that they aren't down...)


----------



## Easy Does It

I just sold Rogers today for a nice 20% gain in 6 months, would not touch it right now, looks over bought.


----------



## Financial Cents

US AT&T for you...b/c of you are also taking advantage of dollar....

Totally agree.


----------



## Assetologist

VOD & TEF are worth a look


----------



## Dibs

The author of Dividend Ninja recently posted an article about canadian telecoms:
http://www.dividendstocksonline.com/2011/09/the-canadian-telecoms/

It may be interesting to look at the divident payout ratio of the companies.


----------



## KaeJS

I hold BCE as an Investor and hate it as a client.

I use RCI.B as a client and hate it as an Investor.


----------



## donald

BCE has been weathering this storm really good,one of my bright spots.Its actually pushing 52 week highs lately.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I hold BCE as an Investor and hate it as a client.
> 
> I use RCI.B as a client and hate it as an Investor.


As a client i hate both RCI and BCE, but hold them both as investor and they are not too bad comparing to my other holdings...

imho BCE is more stable, but RCI has potentially stronger growth in both appreciation and dividends...


----------



## Betzy

BCE looking like a good buy in opp for long term hold. Just dont seem to be able to stop its easy steady climb


----------



## Cal

BCE and T currently overpriced?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob.../time-to-hang-up-on-bce-telus/article4405602/


----------



## Eder

Unless interest rates go up I don't think either are over priced, neither do most market muppets.

http://www.stockchase.com/Company-sl--slq-ID-slv-BCE--Inc..php


----------



## fatcat

interesting article about the challenges traditional cable is facing: http://business.financialpost.com/2...s-numbers-drop-as-cable-faces-new-challenges/


----------



## Nick1357

I know I have already ditched my cable in favor of a combination of Netflix and downloading. It seems pretty sad to me that for basically no cost you can get better picture quality, more variety, on demand, and commercial/annoyance free content. Compare that to what you get with cable providers and it's no wonder why they're starting to feel some pressure; they are going to have to figure out a new business model. I have no problem paying for Netflix as I think it's great value for what you get, but cable is a rip-off.

I want to select the shows that i want to watch from a list. I want to be able to watch them whenever I want, in high definition, and without commercials. And I want access to all the good shows from elsewhere that aren't typically broadcast in Canada. Easy. Oh yeah, and I'm not going to pay $150 a month for it either.


----------



## Cal

Eder said:


> Unless interest rates go up I don't think either are over priced, neither do most market muppets.
> 
> http://www.stockchase.com/Company-sl--slq-ID-slv-BCE--Inc..php


I think they are both currently a few dollars over what I would like to pay for them. But definitely not to the extent that they feel in the article. I mean....if BCE went down to the $33 range as stated on the low end, in the article I posted.....I think we would all back up the truck and load up on as many units as possible.


----------



## doctrine

I enjoyed buying Telus last year at $49-50, but wouldn't buy at $61 even with a dividend increase. It seems to have increased because of the Mason Capital issue.

BCE is more reasonably priced and I've purchased more recently at the $40 level. 

I agree with Cal that I would be backing the truck up with BCE anywhere near $30 - that would be a 7% yield, and they'll likely continue to increase the dividend and buy back shares.


----------



## Financial Cents

I agree with the Telus comment, priced way too high to buy right now.


----------



## blin10

who is paying 150$ exactly? i got rogers vip package with discount i pay like $60 with tax, with a pvr... how is netflix exactly good ? I went on netflix.ca to see their selection and it sucks big time, no late night shows such as leterman,jimmy,leno, no discovery/tlc/history/tsn/news/etc/etc channels, just a few outdated movies... I agree cable should not be even $60, fair value is $30, but netflix is FAR from replacing cable because it doesn't have decent selection



Nick1357 said:


> I know I have already ditched my cable in favor of a combination of Netflix and downloading. It seems pretty sad to me that for basically no cost you can get better picture quality, more variety, on demand, and commercial/annoyance free content. Compare that to what you get with cable providers and it's no wonder why they're starting to feel some pressure; they are going to have to figure out a new business model. I have no problem paying for Netflix as I think it's great value for what you get, but cable is a rip-off.
> 
> I want to select the shows that i want to watch from a list. I want to be able to watch them whenever I want, in high definition, and without commercials. And I want access to all the good shows from elsewhere that aren't typically broadcast in Canada. Easy. Oh yeah, and I'm not going to pay $150 a month for it either.


----------



## Nick1357

blin10 said:


> who is paying 150$ exactly? i got rogers vip package with discount i pay like $60 with tax, with a pvr... how is netflix exactly good ? I went on netflix.ca to see their selection and it sucks big time, no late night shows such as leterman,jimmy,leno, no discovery/tlc/history/tsn/news/etc/etc channels, just a few outdated movies... I agree cable should not be even $60, fair value is $30, but netflix is FAR from replacing cable because it doesn't have decent selection


Well, It may be very different with Rogers, but for Eastlink, the phone + internet + full cable bundle is 211.6 via their website, and the phone + internet bundle is 82.45, so the difference is 129.15 and the dvr is an extra $15 a month. So thats $144 plus 15% tax which make it $166. Sure you can get a few slightly cheaper bundles, but then you dont get the dvr and all the channels.

I agree that Netflix is absolutely not a cable replacement but _for what it is_ it is good value in my mind. There are a lot of good movies and shows on there and they are arranged in ways that are relatively easy to browse through. I like a lot of the documentaries and foreign and indie films that I otherwise wouldn't come across.

My tv watching habits may be different than some folks as I mostly only watch movies and a few good scripted dramas such as breaking bad, game of thrones, justified, or comedies such as Louie, etc. For these, I can get everything that I want from bittorrent very conveniently and in excellent hd quality with no commercials.

One other thing is that my cable company doesn't scramble all the channels, so by just plugging the wire into the back of my tv I can still get 60 some odd channels the last time I looked. But that's the thing, I don't bother turning it on because regular tv has gotten too annoying for me to watch after haven't gotten used to commercial free content.


----------



## mrPPincer

Same, I have Eastlink as well, for phone and internet; I could get those 60 channels as well, but I could care less, I have a friend that wants to give away his tv and can't find any takers, I certainly don't want it.


----------



## Nick1357

Since I still have internet and phone with them, they call once in a while to try and sign me up for cable and they always sound absolutely dumbstruck when they hear that I don't have cable with anyone else and I don't want to sign up for it now either. They sound like they think it's the weirdest thing in the world and what the hell do I do if I don't watch cable. lol

I know I am in the majority though and I imagine cable will continue for a quite a while, especially with such classic shows as " Let's Fold Laundry", "Americas Best Belch-er", "Morons in a House", and "Pick a Puppy". (That last one is real!)


----------



## blin10

woa $166 is a lot no way I would pay that as well... maybe it's some sort of super package with ppv's ? hard to believe everyone pays that much, something doesn't sound right about that price.. http://eastlink.ca/CableDigitalTV.aspx their promo now $99 for all 3 for 3months hard to imagine they will jack is up so high after



Nick1357 said:


> Well, It may be very different with Rogers, but for Eastlink, the phone + internet + full cable bundle is 211.6 via their website, and the phone + internet bundle is 82.45, so the difference is 129.15 and the dvr is an extra $15 a month. So thats $144 plus 15% tax which make it $166. Sure you can get a few slightly cheaper bundles, but then you dont get the dvr and all the channels.
> 
> I agree that Netflix is absolutely not a cable replacement but _for what it is_ it is good value in my mind. There are a lot of good movies and shows on there and they are arranged in ways that are relatively easy to browse through. I like a lot of the documentaries and foreign and indie films that I otherwise wouldn't come across.
> 
> My tv watching habits may be different than some folks as I mostly only watch movies and a few good scripted dramas such as breaking bad, game of thrones, justified, or comedies such as Louie, etc. For these, I can get everything that I want from bittorrent very conveniently and in excellent hd quality with no commercials.
> 
> One other thing is that my cable company doesn't scramble all the channels, so by just plugging the wire into the back of my tv I can still get 60 some odd channels the last time I looked. But that's the thing, I don't bother turning it on because regular tv has gotten too annoying for me to watch after haven't gotten used to commercial free content.


----------



## Cal

All 3 of these have been on a tear lately. 

Bell seems a little pricey after it announced the dividend increase, although the dividend is still over 5%. Telus is priced high as well, with a decent dividend, but perhaps the greatest chance of share appreciation for the non voting shares, once they resolve their issues with Mason Capitol. And the Rogers share price has appreciated over the $40 mark the past week or so, they have cut almost 1000 jobs in the past 3 months to ensure they hit their targets for profitability.


----------



## Kaitlyn

Easy Does It said:


> I just sold Rogers today for a nice 20% gain in 6 months, would not touch it right now, looks over bought.


Dang, up 20%? I'm no longer happy with my 15%  Only 300 shares too...


----------



## Kaitlyn

Cal said:


> All 3 of these have been on a tear lately.
> 
> Bell seems a little pricey after it announced the dividend increase, although the dividend is still over 5%. Telus is priced high as well, with a decent dividend, but perhaps the greatest chance of share appreciation for the non voting shares, once they resolve their issues with Mason Capitol. And the Rogers share price has appreciated over the $40 mark the past week or so, they have cut almost 1000 jobs in the past 3 months to ensure they hit their targets for profitability.


Yep I'm pretty happy with my RCI. My SJR is just floundering and pondering about BCE or T... or sticking with RCI


----------



## AGHFX

*Ever consider?*

Have you ever considered Bell Aliant (BA)? I hold (and DRIP) them in my TFSA and I'm quite fond of this company. I don't believe you'll see the short term growth in the stock that you might see in T or BCE but I like their dividend yield and they have a pretty solid balance sheet. The thing I like most about BA is the way they are expanding their business. They don't hold as large of a presence in the large cities across canada like you might see with T or RCI but those markets are already far too concentrated. BA is really pushing their fibre op and new cell services in the rural parts of Atlantic Canada and Ontario. They are expanding in areas that aren't already dominated by the other companies and I think you will see this reflected in its future cash flows over the next 5 years.


----------



## gibor365

_they have cut almost 1000 jobs in the past 3 months to ensure they hit their targets for profitability._ also from next months they reduce bundle discounts.... I hate it as a customer, but hope that they will have good earnings and shares price gets boosted


----------



## saad1253

Any thoughts on the Big 3 Now? Any favourites going into Sept 17th and later in terms of growth potential and dividend


----------



## doctrine

I am staying "market neutral" on them for now - not buying, not selling. I made a small addition to Telus back in June, but otherwise I wouldn't consider adding unless valuations dropped 10% or more from here, given a higher amount of uncertainity surrounding the upcoming auction.


----------



## dubmac

This is a quote from the Telus website on it's plan to extend it's dividend into 2016 :encouragement:
This doesn't mean that they WILL do it - only that they plan to do it.

*In May 2013, the Company announced that it will extend its semi-annual dividend growth program to 2016. TELUS plans to continue with two dividend increases per year to 2016, normally announced in May and November, and is targeting the increase to also be in the range of circa 10% annually. Notwithstanding this, dividend decisions will continue to be dependent on earnings and free cash flow and subject to the Board’s assessment and determination of our financial situation and outlook on a quarterly basis. There can be no assurance that the Company will maintain its dividend growth program through to 2016.*

As for BCE, they have less wireless exposure, but they have the potential to grow their dividend (but not as much as BCE and T)


"Maher Yaghi at Desjardins Capital Markets told clients in a note earlier this week that he expects EBITDA growth in 2014 to be around 3 per cent, *strong enough to support continued dividend growth at the large firms*."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...o-remain-an-attractive-option/article8281181/


----------



## GoldStone

BNN reported today:

*Three foreign telcos besides Verizon eyed entering Canada*


----------



## humble_pie

reuters is saying that the slippage yesterday in canada's big 3 wireless providers is due to this news about interest from the 3 foreign telcos.

i guess we won't know for another week or 2 whether any of the 3 foreign telcos did apply for spectrum?

capital costs of entry into canada will be high, such a foreign telco needs deep pockets, says BNN's guest expert mary anne de monte-whelan.

my tiny personal takeaway from all this: a message is starting to appear upon the wall. Faint. Not even clear yet in what language. Message says that the era of bell/telus/rogers hegemony is beginning to end. Being able to package north american services like roaming is too alluring for the barbarians to remain outside the gates. If not now, they'll be back later.

BCE in particular may no longer be a stock to load into retirement or RESP accounts without thought for the future, content to be secure in the hefty dividend ...


----------



## gibor365

GoldStone said:


> BNN reported today:
> 
> *Three foreign telcos besides Verizon eyed entering Canada*


_At least three foreign telcos aside from Verizon have looked at bidding for wireless spectrum in Canada, a source close to the situation tells BNN. The three companies are said to have been Vodafone, AT&T and Norway's Telenor."_

Just wondering what is meaning of "have looked"  I also "have looked", but it doesn't mean anything 
From what i read Vodafone is strongly expanding into Africa, Telenor has very close to them huge potential with expanding to post-Soviet market and this is goverment company.... so I doubt that they would like to enter relatively small and mature Canadian market...


----------



## humble_pie

as mary anne said in the interview, the only real candidate is AT&T


----------



## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> reuters is saying that the slippage yesterday in canada's big 3 wireless providers is due to this news about interest from the 3 foreign telcos.
> 
> i guess we won't know for another week or 2 whether any of the 3 foreign telcos did apply for spectrum?
> 
> capital costs of entry into canada will be high, such a foreign telco needs deep pockets, says BNN's guest expert mary anne de monte-whelan.
> 
> my tiny personal takeaway from all this: a message is starting to appear upon the wall. Faint. Not even clear yet in what language. Message says that the era of bell/telus/rogers hegemony is beginning to end. Being able to package north american services like roaming is too alluring for the barbarians to remain outside the gates. If not now, they'll be back later.
> 
> BCE in particular may no longer be a stock to load into retirement or RESP accounts without thought for the future, content to be secure in the hefty dividend ...


which is why i sold bce (kept telus) and bought shaw ... i don't think wireless will ever be able to deliver the bandwidth that modern homes need


----------



## Vitalogy80

fatcat said:


> which is why i sold bce (kept telus) and bought shaw ... i don't think wireless will ever be able to deliver the bandwidth that modern homes need


I doubt that...check out the difference in speed from 3G to LTE/4G. It's almost 10x faster, and in 5 years I'm sure another Wireless technology will be around that will be more than 10x faster that LTE/4G. Wireless is the future IMHO. Statements like this just make me think of Bill Gates statement that PC's will never need more than 640K of RAM


----------



## jamesbe

Speed is there, bandwidth is the issue. You can only stuff so many users in the airwaves. Will be awhile before it takes over.


----------



## fatcat

Vitalogy80 said:


> I doubt that...check out the difference in speed from 3G to LTE/4G. It's almost 10x faster, and in 5 years I'm sure another Wireless technology will be around that will be more than 10x faster that LTE/4G. Wireless is the future IMHO. Statements like this just make me think of Bill Gates statement that PC's will never need more than 640K of RAM


4G delivers 5 to 12 mbps ... google wired broadband delivers *1000* mbps ... okay we move 5 years ahead and 5G is delivering speeds of ... what ? ... 120mbps ... ok ... still 10 times _slower_ than google ... :biggrin:

you can download a blu-ray quality movie in a _minute_

modern homes will have everything wired, refrigerators tv's, computers, heating systems, security ... everything and there is no way wireless can deliver the bandwidth and speed and quality and stability of connection

even 4G can't even come close ... at present anyway ... i do agree technology changes fast and i would never say "never" but i don't see wireless delivering the total package that will soon be required by every modern home


----------



## AltaRed

An interesting article from CB on subscriber growth/loss http://www.canadianbusiness.com/companies-and-industries/cable-tv-subscribers-in-historic-decline/


----------



## My Own Advisor

Thanks for the link AltaRed. It will be interesting to learn how telcos adapt.


----------



## Vitalogy80

fatcat said:


> 4G delivers 5 to 12 mbps ... google wired broadband delivers *1000* mbps ... okay we move 5 years ahead and 5G is delivering speeds of ... what ? ... 120mbps ... ok ... still 10 times _slower_ than google ... :biggrin:
> 
> you can download a blu-ray quality movie in a _minute_
> 
> modern homes will have everything wired, refrigerators tv's, computers, heating systems, security ... everything and there is no way wireless can deliver the bandwidth and speed and quality and stability of connection
> 
> even 4G can't even come close ... at present anyway ... i do agree technology changes fast and i would never say "never" but i don't see wireless delivering the total package that will soon be required by every modern home


In 5 years do you really think most houses will have everything wired to security, heating, refrigerators etc? The majority won't be wired for another 20 years I'd guess...it's too expensive and the benefit too little right now. I can already update my heating/ac through my iPhone. Do I really care about turning the dryer on from work?? Also, even if I could do that, the amount of bandwidth required for anything but transferring 4K TV (which isn't even out) is the only thing that would really affect bandwidth.

With a limit of "only" 100MB/s for wireless, that's going to be more than good enough for 99% of houses...how many people will really care about downloading a Bluray in a minute instead of 10 minutes?

Also, comparing Google Broadband is a little off since no one in Canada can get that...the majority of households in Canada are probably under 10M, definitely under 30.


----------



## fatcat

Vitalogy80 said:


> In 5 years do you really think most houses will have everything wired to security, heating, refrigerators etc? The majority won't be wired for another 20 years I'd guess...it's too expensive and the benefit too little right now. I can already update my heating/ac through my iPhone. Do I really care about turning the dryer on from work?? Also, even if I could do that, the amount of bandwidth required for anything but transferring 4K TV (which isn't even out) is the only thing that would really affect bandwidth.
> 
> With a limit of "only" 100MB/s for wireless, that's going to be more than good enough for 99% of houses...how many people will really care about downloading a Bluray in a minute instead of 10 minutes?
> 
> Also, comparing Google Broadband is a little off since no one in Canada can get that...the majority of households in Canada are probably under 10M, definitely under 30.


sure, there will be a market for wireless as well as wired ... shaw currently offers 250mbs ... if you move into a residence tomorrow and you are offered a choice of 12mbps or 250 mbps at similar prices and you are any kind of a geek or love movies or music, you are probably going to choose the highest speed

i have owned at least 30 or 40 computers and within about 2 months of owning each one i always wish they were faster ... we are still capable of going faster than our machines 
why should i have to wait for web page to load ?
it should be there in it's entirety as soon as i click

you are saying people are willing to wait an extra 9 long minutes for their new james bond movie ?
not a chance ... they want to _click_ and have it there right away

whoever gives them speed at reasonable price will win and i think broadband is positioned to that
have you looked at the cost of data over any of the big 3 ? ... it doesn't come close to what broadband can give you


----------



## Vitalogy80

fatcat said:


> sure, there will be a market for wireless as well as wired ... shaw currently offers 250mbs ... if you move into a residence tomorrow and you are offered a choice of 12mbps or 250 mbps at similar prices and you are any kind of a geek or love movies or music, you are probably going to choose the highest speed
> 
> i have owned at least 30 or 40 computers and within about 2 months of owning each one i always wish they were faster ... we are still capable of going faster than our machines
> why should i have to wait for web page to load ?
> it should be there in it's entirety as soon as i click
> 
> you are saying people are willing to wait an extra 9 long minutes for their new james bond movie ?
> not a chance ... they want to _click_ and have it there right away
> 
> whoever gives them speed at reasonable price will win and i think broadband is positioned to that
> have you looked at the cost of data over any of the big 3 ? ... it doesn't come close to what broadband can give you


That's the problem though...none of the big ISP's are going to offer anything close to what Google is offering for anywhere close to what Google is charging. I'm paying $50 to Shaw out West for 25M service...Google charges that for Gigabit. Would I pay $75 for Gigabit, of course. 250M service from Shaw, which isn't even available in most locations, is $120/month. How many people want to well over $100/month for Internet, when 25M service is $50/month. 25M is quite fast and fast enough for 99% of the population. 

Does anyone wait for webpages anymore? Every website I go to is up instantly.


----------



## saad1253

Conversation went way off topic . In terms of stock price, which one is the one you guys like in terms of capital appreciation, thanks!!


----------



## gibor365

saad1253 said:


> Conversation went way off topic . In terms of stock price, which one is the one you guys like in terms of capital appreciation, thanks!!


On Friday JPM rated BCE and RCI as outperform and Telus as market perform


----------



## My Own Advisor

Telcos are not going anywhere... when RCI.B, T, and BCE crash, time to buy


----------



## Jon_Snow

Already loaded up on BCE when it tanked on Verizon's imminent entry. :tongue-new:


----------



## 1sImage

Sold all 3 over a month ago, before the scare.
wouldn't mine getting back into bce again though.


----------



## fatcat

jp morgan is singing the praises of rogers and bell in this article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...t-actions/article14432288/#dashboard/follows/

does anyone know what time tomorrow the bidders will be revealed ?

it looks like all of the big 3 could get a nice bump up if no large foreign firms are in the running (and that appears to be the case based on a summary of the rumor mill)


----------



## Eder

I honestly think all 3 are appropriate long term investments and whether or not competition increases we (investors) will continue to be rewarded. In the mean time it was nice to grab more BCE while on sale.
If no foreign bidders appear I'm sure all 3 will again become fully valued...bad news for most of us.


----------



## fatcat

Eder said:


> I honestly think all 3 are appropriate long term investments and whether or not competition increases we (investors) will continue to be rewarded. In the mean time it was nice to grab more BCE while on sale.
> If no foreign bidders appear I'm sure all 3 will again become fully valued...bad news for most of us.


maybe but you have to wonder if the mere possibility of verizon coming up could do so much to their price

where would we be if verizon has said something like "we like canada and see opportunity and intend to build a state of the art network"

i think the big three would be down a long, long time 

i take this as a lesson that the telcos are more vulnerable to both competition and new technology than we have previously calculated

(which doesn't mean that they aren't still good investments)


----------



## gibor365

I couldn't really to load up as have to high allocation to telcos, but still added a little bit BCE and RCI.B on latest VZ related pullback.


fatcat said:


> i take this as a lesson that the telcos are more vulnerable to both competition and new technology than we have previously calculated


The problem is that everything is vulnerable  I didn't expect that bonds and REIT will go down so sharp, that AAPL will fell from 700 to 400 and so on...


----------



## favelle75

fatcat said:


> maybe but you have to wonder if the mere possibility of verizon coming up could do so much to their price
> 
> where would we be if verizon has said something like "we like canada and see opportunity and intend to build a state of the art network"
> 
> i think the big three would be down a long, long time
> 
> i take this as a lesson that the telcos are more vulnerable to both competition and new technology than we have previously calculated
> 
> (which doesn't mean that they aren't still good investments)


But its not just telcos. The market overreacts to EVERYTHING. Even the THOUGHT of the feds pulling back on the stimulus can move entire markets. And then the next day they correct themselves. People are fooling themselves if they don't think the entire market is vulnerable to volatility.


----------



## HaroldCrump

fatcat said:


> does anyone know what time tomorrow the bidders will be revealed ?


The list has been posted on Industry Canada's website.
There are no foreign competitors.
All local incumbents are on the list, incl. of course the big 3.


----------



## dubmac

HaroldCrump said:


> The list has been posted on Industry Canada's website.
> There are no foreign competitors.
> All local incumbents are on the list, incl. of course the big 3.


Telus is bidding for the "beachfront" wireless airwaves - the 700 MHz frequency.
Apparaently - these waves can deliver signal deeper (in car parks, basements etc) more than yer average frequency. Not sure whether it matters.
Glad I didn't put in a stop loss. I expect the volatility will remain, but T has delivered some handsome returns. :encouragement:

It'll be interesting to see whether Telus increases it's dividend to 36. If you look at the trend it seesm to go up 2 cents every 6 months!


----------



## fatcat

all three up a tiny bit ...


----------



## Canadian

dubmac said:


> It'll be interesting to see whether Telus increases it's dividend to 36. If you look at the trend it seesm to go up 2 cents every 6 months!


I'm having trouble finding the article right now - but I read the other day that they will continue the semi-annual dividend increases until the end of 2014. It doesn't say by how much, and it doesn't say if they will stop the increases in 2015, but apparently you can count on a few more raises.


----------



## Eder

Long term investment...stop looking!!


----------



## MrMatt

I just entered a CGO position.
Thinly traded, but they seem to be a bit under the radar.

I particularly like their lower wireless exposure.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Telus:
http://about.telus.com/community/english/investor_relations/dividend_information

Like Eder said, stop looking, long-term investment. If you're worried about short-term news, you shouldn't own the stock.


----------



## yyz

Not to mention that Telus just finished buying back $1 Billion in stock.


http://about.telus.com/community/en...9/24/telus-completes-normal-course-issuer-bid


----------



## My Own Advisor

Always a good sign when a company has the coin for that yyz.


----------



## Killer Z

It appears that the consensus on this forum is that T and BCE are more attractive telecom positions than RCI.B. RCI.B is currently trading at a 16% discount from it's 52 week high, as opposed to T and BCE which continue to snuggle their 52 week high. My question is at what discount does RCI.B need to be trading at before it becomes as attractive to those who favor T or BCE?


----------



## PatInTheHat

Killer Z said:


> It appears that the consensus on this forum is that T and BCE are more attractive telecom positions than RCI.B. RCI.B is currently trading at a 16% discount from it's 52 week high, as opposed to T and BCE which continue to snuggle their 52 week high. My question is at what discount does RCI.B need to be trading at before it becomes as attractive to those who favor T or BCE?


At $40 I think RCI would interest me enough to hold a telecom. Of the 3 I think your investment goals and age should help make your decision here. I view them as RCI, T, BCE in order of most risk and upside from left to right. So if you are retired BCE if you are young and can handle risk RCI.


----------



## gibor365

I hold both RCI and BCE, RCI is the cheapest of all telecoms right now with great payout ratio....if I would buy, I`d go 100% with RCI


----------



## doctrine

I have T and BCE, but at prices 20%+ lower than today which I am much more comfortable with. RCI is the only reasonably priced telecom right now. But you pay for the lower price with potentially volatile and lower earnings. They also start forking over $433M/year to the NHL next year - they need a dramatic increase in revenue to justify it.


----------



## Killer Z

A related article in the Financial Post:

*"Rogers Communications expected to continue underperforming Telus and BCE"*
http://business.financialpost.com/2...ed-to-continue-underperforming-telus-and-bce/


----------



## gibor365

If even 60% of those articles were correct. I would be multi - millionaire.... 
Yes, this year is the only year so far when RCI increased dividends less than competitors. usually they increase by 10+%.... just look at PéE and payout ratio and compare.... 
Telus really in the past took some parts of Rogers wireless offering better prices (I also signed 2 year contract with Telus), but this year Telus increased prices significantly and Rogers offers already better prices.... so imho here it`s like with big 5 banks, one who underperform 1-2 years, will outperform next 1-2 years.... in any case my allocation to BCEéRCI about 50 - 50 .... but I don`t beleive in Telus for a long run..
More than articles , I beleive in numbers : PE : Telus 19, RCI 13 : Payout Telus 71% , RCI 56%


----------



## Moneytoo

gibor said:


> If even 60% of those articles were correct. I would be multi - millionaire....


Not a sports fan, but think this article provides a fair warning: http://www.fool.ca/2014/04/15/cable-investors-be-wary-of-this-upcoming-game-changer


----------



## fatcat

Moneytoo said:


> Not a sports fan, but think this article provides a fair warning: http://www.fool.ca/2014/04/15/cable-investors-be-wary-of-this-upcoming-game-changer


as the article says, sports is one of the last places on tv that people still watch live and not recorded 

and this is unlikely to change since most of us don't want to know how a game ends and the nothing replaces the excitement of live sports 

so the commercials on sports will continue to be highly sought after ... 

one of the reasons i bought disney is for espn which should benefit from the buildout of sports anywhere

i doubt that cord cutters are going to be able to get all the sports they want, especially live

also, harper has introduced a new bill which will punish not only illegal uploading but illegal downloading so this might give the cable channels some breathing room


----------



## bmoney

I would like to own RCI one day. Rogers has a few assets that the other players do not, like the 700mhz spectrum, media companies, and technology like their VoIP one number, and anywhere TV - which after being accustomed to the convenience is difficult to switch. I've been wanting to dump Rogers as a service provider, but every time I consider alternatives and how much I can save, it's never been enough to warrant the hassle and live without those conveniences. I think they really are the premium provider, and most people can afford the extra $20/month, that would otherwise be spent on coffee.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Recently dumped Rogers home phone. Much happier and saving $360 per year.


----------



## bmoney

My Own Advisor said:


> Recently dumped Rogers home phone. Much happier and saving $360 per year.


Oh no, this is clearly a sell signal :rolleyes2:


----------



## leeder

RCI's balance sheet scares me. It's too leveraged for my liking. I like Telus and BCE more, but would not be adding at these nosebleed levels.


----------



## moose

Hey guys, in the race of Rogers vs. Telus Vs. BCE, Im gunning for T. I want to hold it, but find it overpriced at the moment, so Ill wait on the sidelines...

I noticed the other day at work that Telus is associated with a program used in the healthcare sector (OACIS Clinical Information System) to store patient information and scans (in Canada). Anyone consider this when weighing against the others or is it such a small part of their business that it is ignored?


----------



## blin10

bce hit 52 week high today... if markets stay in green, bce can go higher easily


----------



## Cal

moose here is some more info on the Telus health business - http://www.telushealth.com/

No real impact on my decisions about the company though, wireless is the bread and butter.


----------



## Killer Z

RCI.B down approx 3% - 3.5% on news of poor Q1 results:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rog...urt-by-fewer-new-wireless-customers-1.2617345


----------



## yyz

The dividend hike was announced in February there is no further increase.


----------



## Longwinston

yyz said:


> The dividend hike was announced in February there is no further increase.


Ok thanks for that... I was a little confused, thought they did it again lol


----------



## blin10

poor q1 was expected, i think q2 will not be great either... rogers need to chew through few quarters imo


----------



## My Own Advisor

Killed Rogers home phone recently and cable is likely next. I got out of Rogers around $50 and don't intend to buy again.


----------



## Cal

It is interesting how the lack of any strong devices during a quarter can affect their earnings.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Glad I hitched my wagon to BCE instead of this...


----------



## ashin1

RCI just up dividends by 5%


----------



## yyz

ashin1 said:


> RCI just up dividends by 5%


No they did not raise the dividend.This was the dividend increase that was announced in February
See here
http://about.rogers.com/About/Media...45_75_Cents_per_Share_Quarterly_Dividend.aspx

"The quarterly dividend declared today will be paid on July 2, 2014 to shareholders of record on June 13, 2014, and is the second quarterly dividend to reflect the recently increased $1.83 per share annualized dividend level. "


----------



## favelle75

So Bell's Q1 earnings were way up this year, yet the stock tumbles for the 3rd day in a row. Further proof, the markets are wacky.


----------



## Synergy

Q1 was solid but they did report less wireless subscribers:



> Bell added 33,964 net contract wireless subscribers in the three months to the end of March, compared to almost 60,000 in the same quarter a year ago.


Still better than Rogers!



> Only 2,000 new postpaid customers were added compared to 32,000 a year ago.


Is Telus reporting Q1 on May 8th?


----------



## favelle75

Yeah, but the level of drop seems unwarranted. Wish it was more though so I could have purchased a few more shares!


----------



## Jon_Snow

The results were decent enough to confirm for me that my purchase of 1000 BCE shares for $38 was a good decision. The fact the stock fell doesn't bother me much. A whole bunch of things got unfairly whacked today.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Keep the whacking going....I can't afford pricy stocks!

Geez, 1000 shares of BCE Jon?

You own a few thousand shares of CPG also?

Rollin' man....! :encouragement:


----------



## Jon_Snow

My Own Advisor said:


> Keep the whacking going....I can't afford pricy stocks!
> 
> Geez, 1000 shares of BCE Jon?
> 
> You own a few thousand shares of CPG also?
> 
> Rollin' man....! :encouragement:


Well, 500 for wifey, and 500 for me. :tongue-new:


----------



## doctrine

Let's all put this in perspective. BCE is trading near an all time high and is paying all time high dividends. They have predicted they won't grow more than 3-5% this year. BCE is on target to have returns of 5% dividends plus 3-5% capital gains. They increased the dividend by a higher than expected amount. What's to be upset about? Perhaps anyone who wants to buy now, but if you own then you're laughing.


----------



## favelle75

doctrine said:


> Let's all put this in perspective. BCE is trading near an all time high and is paying all time high dividends. They have predicted they won't grow more than 3-5% this year. BCE is on target to have returns of 5% dividends plus 3-5% capital gains. They increased the dividend by a higher than expected amount. What's to be upset about? Perhaps anyone who wants to buy now, but if you own then you're laughing.


Agreed. I got in for an average of $40.xx. I'd like to get some more though!


----------



## gibor365

Jon_Snow said:


> Well, 500 for wifey, and 500 for me. :tongue-new:


Jon, you are serious investor! Shy to ask...what is you biggest holding?


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ Why are you shy to ask when he's not shy at all to tell? 

CPG is one of them.

He's a serious *value *investor indeed!


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> ^ Why are you shy to ask when he's not shy at all to tell?
> 
> CPG is one of them.
> 
> He's a serious *value *investor indeed!


I meant how much of market value his biggest holding


----------



## Toronto.gal

Well, you can figure it out since he's mentioned many times # of shares and purchase price of his large holdings.


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> Well, you can figure it out since he's mentioned many times # of shares and purchase price of his large holdings.


yeah, but it were additional purchases


----------



## ashin1

No need to worry anymore about who the best player is, as of yesterday morning I now have positions in all 3


----------



## Jon_Snow

My large position in BCE really helped me from getting terribly whacked in the markets today - I still got my knuckles rapped but it could have been much worse. I have really come to love this stock and its many benefits.


----------



## AMABILE

I also own all 3--- plus MBT


----------



## doctrine

My returns on T and BCE have very much exceeded my cell phone and internet bill over the last say three years for sure. Dividends alone are $95 a month which more than covers my cell bill. Another 20-30% dgrowth and it'll have my internet covered too.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I hear ya, Doc... BCE dividends cover my property tax for the year, and then some. :biggrin:


----------



## ashin1

I wish I could say the same about my position, I just bought enough shares to comfortably DRIP with,
soon..................... lol


----------



## bds

I have mostly BCE with a smaller position in RCI. I have my cell phone and internet with Rogers, I'm looking to switch to another company for various infuriating reasons. To me that's a pretty good sign I should exit my position with them too... that and the fact that BCE has been way better to my portfolio.


----------



## gibor365

Jon_Snow said:


> I hear ya, Doc... BCE dividends cover my property tax for the year, and then some. :biggrin:


Maybe you have very small apartment?!


----------



## gibor365

bds said:


> I have mostly BCE with a smaller position in RCI. I have my cell phone and internet with Rogers, I'm looking to switch to another company for various infuriating reasons. To me that's a pretty good sign I should exit my position with them too... that and the fact that BCE has been way better to my portfolio.


When some time ago I canceled majority of RCI services, I was thinking the same, but stock rallied 
Now, we have only retention $17.50 plan with Rogers, and no other company cannot much it even close.... btw, when my curent contract will Telus expire (and this is corporate prefered rate contract), maybe I will switch back to Rogers... Telus was ridiculous with raising costs


----------



## Jon_Snow

gibor said:


> Maybe you have very small apartment?!


900 sq.ft condo.


----------



## PatInTheHat

I'm mostly negative to neutral about this sector as a whole, US companies seem a much better play then the Canadian options. I can't foresee much growth and regulation is likely to have massive impacts. . BCE and Telus are only going to be facing further losses in land lines that they need to make up with growth. The only one I would consider is Rogers as they are rather beat up and have a variety of other offshoots that could become significant contributors. Of course if your choice to be in these telcos are to act like a bond you will certainly do better collecting a dividend.


----------



## favelle75

Nearly 5% yield with Bell and nice steady capital appreciation on top of that.....can't ask for anything more. I wish all my stocks were like Bell!


----------



## Synergy

PatInTheHat said:


> I'm mostly negative to neutral about this sector as a whole.


Seems to be the consensus lately. I'm happy to hold BCE and T and will add to my positions on any weakness.


----------



## 6811

Synergy said:


> Seems to be the consensus lately. I'm happy to hold BCE and T and will add to my positions on any weakness.


++


----------



## My Own Advisor

+more. Hold BCE and T and SJR.B. I don't hold RCI.B anymore other than via XIU.


----------



## fatcat

i don't get the "buy the usa" argument
the sector is under about the same challenges and opportunity

i am not as gloomy at all
we are bringing our houses and refrigerators online and are moving into an everything-connected wireless world
entertainment is now coming at us on all kinds of new platforms
it won't be far off until we see the carriers launching original content of their own

being connected is now a must for anyone that isn't either very poor or retired or living in the woods

they may be losing some land lines but are likely to see growth in plenty of other areas, including things we don't even know about


----------



## yyz

Also content,look at what BCE and RCI own in media.


----------



## robfordlives

Dreadful results from Rogers today. This whole sector is a debt laden mess with government intent on destroying the industry.


----------



## Eder

Wow, I thought results were pretty good considering...good spot to buy the dip perhaps in my opinion.


----------



## Gator13

Does anyone hold AT&T?


----------



## londoncalling

Gator13 said:


> Does anyone hold AT&T?


i have a small position in AT&T. I have been underwater since Arch. I've learned Canadian Telcos perform much differently than US and foreign telcos. I considered adding recently to lower my ACB and deploy/park some US$. Those are not really good reasons to purchase. I prefer Telus which seems to be holding up even with a lot of its customer base in Alberta.


----------



## dubmac

robfordlives said:


> Dreadful results from Rogers today. This whole sector is a debt laden mess with government intent on destroying the industry.


I haven't heard anything about the feds taking action regarding wireless prices in at least a year! The govt seems to have butted out. The big problem with Rogers is that sports teams and their media division are stuck in limbo with covid restrictions. No crowds in Rogers arenas = no revenues. 
BCE is also weak, but I get the impression that their media empire is different from Rogers. BCE has more connection to news media (not sports).
Telus is doin' fine.


----------



## milhouse

I don't think the results were great but they weren't horrible either. Revenue is down as expected but wireless and wireline adds were positive and FCF was up. I'm surprised the shares took such a beating even with the small run up prior to the results today, likely because RCI wasn't willing to provide 2021 guidance due to the covid and lockdown uncertainty from the 2nd wave.
On the analyst call, IMO, Joe Natale sounded hopeful with Francois Champagne taking over the Industry portfolio from Navdeep Bains. +1 wrt dubmac's comments about a lack of chatter from the Feds about wireless pricing. Curious if it's from a realization of how important telecom infrastructure is, even though there's a fine line between resilient networks and ROI.

edit: Just to add, telecom is a capital intensive industry. I don't think debt is a problem in the short and even medium term while borrowing remains cheap. The low interest rates have allowed BCE and T to build out their fiber network and everyone to build out their 5G wireless networks with less balance sheet pain. But when interest rates start to rise, it'll be time to check how solid their balance sheets are.


----------



## gibor365

Gator13 said:


> Does anyone hold AT&T?


Sure .... for about 10 years... also hold RCI.B, BCE and T


----------



## agent99

Gator13 said:


> Does anyone hold AT&T?


I do, but not very much. Haven't had it long enough to have an opinion. It gets negative press in USA. Bought with dividends from other US$ stocks in RRIF. 

In Canada, I have fairly large positions in Telus and BCE (our largest holding overall). I used to own some Rogers, but sold that a while back - never was worth holding. Until 2019, I also owned the BT ADR (British) but they terminated the ADR.


----------



## milhouse

dubmac said:


> I haven't heard anything about the feds taking action regarding wireless prices in at least a year! The govt seems to have butted out.


Interesting quote on BCE's Q4 2020 analyst call on Thursday. At the 33:20mark Bell's CEO, in a response to a question about Bell's announcement of their intention to ramp up their infrastruture spend, talks about outstanding regulatory decisions and getting good signals from the Feds about supporting investment in infrastructure, which is likely due to the challenges of 2020 illustrating how important infrastructure is to the country.


----------



## Eder

The build out has been a drag on shares but worth it in the long run. 5G will be a game changer in the next decade imo.


----------



## milhouse

Of course after I post the "good signals from the feds" quote from Bell, I read an article on the Financial Post about telecom backlash for taking CEWS while paying divvies and now BCE laying off a bunch of media staff.


----------



## dubmac

Telus made some good moves with the IPO. 
The elephant in the room is the amount of debt that they carry. Last year (March 2020) their debt" equity was 2.15. 
Was there any mention of reducing debt in their plans for 2021 +? 
I realize that with low rates, that the cost of borrowing is low, money is cheap, but if rates go up....???


----------



## Eder

I believe that much of Telus International funds were to go to reducing debt. Rogers is even higher although they have chipped away from being over 3-1.


----------



## milhouse

I'm somewhat concerned about T's debt levels too. IIRC, during one of the recent quarterly results calls, FWIW, their CFO mentioned that their debt level is going to continue to be elevated for a bit but that they are confortable with it. I'm guessing they're factoring in spend for the upcoming spectrum auctions that got pushed out due to covid. However, a theme they've regularly mentioned during their quarterly calls over the last year is about "chronically expanding" their free cash flow once their fiber buildout is past the 70%-80% mark and they get past the spectrum auctions. We should get an update during their Q4 results call next week on if they've hit their buildout mark yet and how the free cash flow is doing. A growing FCF is going to be a good indicator of T being able to trend their debt levels downwards while continuing to meet their divvie growth guidance of 7%-10% annually.


----------



## londoncalling

milhouse said:


> I'm somewhat concerned about T's debt levels too. IIRC, during one of the recent quarterly results calls, FWIW, their CFO mentioned that their debt level is going to continue to be elevated for a bit but that they are confortable with it. I'm guessing they're factoring in spend for the upcoming spectrum auctions that got pushed out due to covid. However, a theme they've regularly mentioned during their quarterly calls over the last year is about "chronically expanding" their free cash flow once their fiber buildout is past the 70%-80% mark and they get past the spectrum auctions. We should get an update during their Q4 results call next week on if they've hit their buildout mark yet and how the free cash flow is doing. A growing FCF is going to be a good indicator of T being able to trend their debt levels downwards while continuing to meet their divvie growth guidance of 7%-10% annually.


I would prefer a lower dividend growth rate and an increase to debt reduction in the medium term. 5G is going to be the next major milestone in this space for sure. Keeping enough money for the next auction is important. The ologopy held by the big three is essentialy a moat to new entrants as they are easily squeezed out. The success of Telus International in the short term would indicate that Telus Ag and Telus Health will happen at some point in the future. For full disclosure I hold Telus and a smaller position in BCE. Rogers has never appealed to me.


----------



## robfordlives

Selling my remaining Telus as better opportunities in US market....my get rid of anything Canada plan marches forward. Starlink will decimate the telcos in five years.


----------



## james4beach

Telus has a really good looking chart. If I were holding this, I'd have a tough time selling it as I usually try to keep my winners, and this one looks like a winner (so far). It's performed better than BCE.


----------



## Eder

PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt CorrelationTelus$10,000$67,1689.45%25.86%52.80%-39.30%-80.55%0.420.640.33


----------



## Eder

Eder said:


> PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt CorrelationTelus$10,000$67,1689.45%25.86%52.80%-39.30%-80.55%0.420.640.33



Oops..forgot to add ...9.45 CAGR over 20 years...I'm in! (well I have been for 20 years or so.)


----------

