# Avenex Energy AVF



## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

What do you think about AVF for a long term? Yield almost 10% , 52 weeks 5.21-6.50, current 5.67


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I like the yield on it, but the company is still not profitable.

And if the company is not profitable, how sustainable is the yield?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

KaeJS said:


> I like the yield on it, but the company is still not profitable.
> 
> And if the company is not profitable, how sustainable is the yield?


That's right, but for example favorite by many CPG has even worse numbers, much higher beta and much less yield


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

gibor said:


> That's right, but for example favorite by many CPG has even worse numbers, much higher beta and much less yield


But the market is there.

You answered your own question:

"favourite by many"

^ Thats the key. Thats why CPG does as well as it does.

The company itself is increasing (they produced 8% more in 1st quarter 2011 than 4th quarter 2010) but they also increased their freaking net debt by 26% over the period of march 2010 to march 2011....


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## CanXB (Apr 6, 2010)

Gibor makes a good comparison to CPG. I like the stock, and do own it in my TFSA as well as my wife's. Picked up ~1000 shares in each account at somewhere around 5.24 about a year ago and grabbed another 1000 shares in each account just last week at around 5.67. They have recently spun off their realestate business and are focusing on their O&G assets. Clarke Inc. has beein in and out and is now in again at 5.50 with a little over 400,000 shaers(see below form Canadian Insider). For me this was a good sign. Icing on the cake, 49% payout ratio. Not too bad for this type of company.

Jun 10/11
Jun 07/11
Clarke Inc.
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
422,500
$5.500


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Looks like AVF has good support around 5.5-5.6.
I know that many investors specializing on oill stock are bullish on this one.


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## SlowandSteady60 (Feb 19, 2012)

*Avenex*

So the last post on this one was June of last year. Does anybody have any thoughts on this one now. I see the yield is still hovering around 10%. They are still paying out their dividends and the stock has been bouncing back and forth between $5 and $6. Seems pretty steady. ???


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

Oh Oh ...20% Dividend Cut.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...20120329&archive=ccnm&slug=201203300778472001

April 2012 Dividend Declaration

The AvenEx Board of Directors reviews the dividend level monthly, based on the Corporation's expected cash flows, forecast commodity prices, and balance sheet strength with a targeted dividend payout ratio of 60% of Funds from Operations. Based on the current outlook for continued very low natural gas prices the Board of Directors has set the April 2012 dividend, payable May 15, 2012, at $0.035 per share. This is a reduction from $0.045 per share for the March 2012 dividend, payable on April 15, 2012. AvenEx remains committed to paying a sustainable monthly dividend.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Everyone should have hopefully minimized their exposure to pure natural gas plays by now. LNG is a different story if it can be sold on the world market but dry natural gas will be in a bear market for a few years and may dip below 1.00 in the near future. They are just producing so much of it from these unconventional plays and the net cost from such producers is basically nothing - it is a byproduct to them.

Under this scenario and with minimal ways to store it onland, minimal ways to ship it elsewhere presently and the fact it will take a long time to build up the infrastructure to use it (truck fleets, electrical power generation) I see a long bear market. If you want to go in the dry gas area buy a company that is very financially strong that can buy out weaker neighbours that will falter under these circumstances.

For a contrarian play consider SD or CHK which are future oil plays that still get treated a lot like the dry nat gas companies that they used to be.


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## LOST (Aug 30, 2010)

I am down on Avenex about 40%. Is there anybody still invested in this stock? Would you hold if you are in? I was thinking of selling and buying either PPL or ARX? Any thoughts?


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

I'm holding for now but not very happy. Be careful with ARX they may have to adjust the dividend as well.
Here is a reply to an email I sent to AVF.

There is no new news beyond the dividend reduction at the end of March. The market is selling all resource stocks but especially small stocks that have disappointed the market with a dividend cut. We continue to target a payout of 60% of cashflow which unfortunately meant a dividend cut with the low natural gas prices.
Gary Dundas
VP Fin + CFO


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## LOST (Aug 30, 2010)

I guess I will hold for now also. I have a habit of holding on to my losers too long. I like all green on my watchlists. Do you have the website URL? Thanks Lost


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

I have a habit of holding on to my losers too long.

Me too but at least we will get 10% plus now to hold and hopefully they don't cut again.
I don't think they would be that crazy to cut again in the near term so should be safe at 
least for the rest of the year.



http://www.avenexenergy.com/


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## Northern Engineer (Apr 3, 2009)

Call me crazy, but I'm all for this price drop.
I always expected that dividend to be cut sooner or later (they were only maintaining cash flow because they had hedged NG prices, had to end eventually), and IMO the price has overshot the dividend cut. I intend to buy more next week, assuming the price doesn't recover too fast for me. At some point, whether 6 months or 4 years from now, the price of NG will come up, and I'll take a high-yield, funded by AVF's oil production and marketing arm, with me while I wait.


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## spatrick (Jun 21, 2011)

Bumping this thread, as AVF fell 11 per cent today after its quarterly earnings, now down to $3.02.

Like some others here, I bought in at around $5.50.

Time to run for the hills, or hold out for better natural gas prices and enjoy the crazy high dividend?


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

High yielding oil/gas stocks are dangerous enough, but these guys don't even have a net income. With their dividends combined with net loss, they're losing book value at 20% a year!


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZlDZPYzfm4


Run to the hills. Run for your life!

Don't really know what you should do with the stock... Just wanted a chance to link some Maiden...

However no net income is definitely not a good thing.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZlDZPYzfm4
> 
> 
> Run to the hills. Run for your life!
> ...


\m/ \m/ !!


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

KaeJS said:


> I like the yield on it, but the company is still not profitable.
> 
> And if the company is not profitable, how sustainable is the yield?


^ I wrote this on June 16, 2011.

I continue to say the same thing.

If it's not profitable. It's not profitable.

Why would you ever want to own _anything_ in this type of economy that isn't profitable?

The chances of it being profitable in the future before it tanks completely are probably low.


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