# Do you guys believe Canada has a very bright future?



## cannadian (Dec 30, 2011)

Sorry if this isn't the right section for this thread - I'm new to the forum!

Here's the thing, Canada has a population of under 40 million. BUT, we have more land mass, and more natural resources than the US has.

I know the weather/climate isn't quite as attractive, but America has a population of over 300 million. Do you guys think that Canada could, eventually, approach the US in terms of economic strength if we can grow our population and start exploiting our resources more?

Just think of how powerful the Canadian economy could become in the future if we had 100 million++ here, and how much that could help housing prices etc. 

Sorry if I'm rambling, but it just seems like there's a TON of growth potential for the Canadian economy in the long run, compared with the US etc..


Do you guys agree? I'd be interested in hearing some of your opinions about this.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

cannadian said:


> Sorry if this isn't the right section for this thread - I'm new to the forum!
> 
> Here's the thing, Canada has a population of under 40 million. BUT, we have more land mass, and more natural resources than the US has.
> 
> ...


Japan has no resources and no land mass, and they've built a very prosperous economy. There are massive countries with more people, better weather, great resources who do realatively poorly.

Natural advantage only goes so far.

I think Canada has a bright future, but I wouldn't bet against the US.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I agree. Mostly about the commodities, though.


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## jwsmith519 (Dec 13, 2009)

cannadian said:


> Do you guys agree? I'd be interested in hearing some of your opinions about this.


If I had the opportunity to live in Ontario, California or Ontario, Canada, I would choose the one in California hands down. Weather is way better. Opportunities, in my field IT, are better in California.

Also to answer your question, no I don't think Canada has a bright future. I've seen too many recent job cuts in my area; mainly due the strong Canadian dollar. All the jobs are moving south or overseas. Canada is too expensive to do business in. Throw in the bubble in the real estate market, and we have a recipe for weakness.


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## Barwelle (Feb 23, 2011)

jwsmith519 said:


> no I don't think Canada has a bright future. I've seen too many recent job cuts in my area


You've gotta think outside of your own industry. Canada, with our forests, water, minerals in the Canadian shield, oilsands, offshore oil in Newfoundland and in the North... as scarcity becomes more of an issue, Canada could stand to make a lot of money if we're smart with it. IT may not be the best choice if you want to live in Canada, but there are many other opportunities within our country. Especially, right now, if you live in / move to Alberta. 

Sure it's mostly primary industry, but you need other industries to provide services to these industries and to the people. Only about 4% of Canadians are employed in the primary sector, despite its importance to our economy.

I agree that we have a real estate bubble (especially in AB and Vancouver) but that doesn't mean we couldn't recover if it popped. Long term, in our lifetimes, I believe our prospects are good.

As for rivalling the US in terms of economic strength, well it depends if they climb out of the hole they are in, or if they continue to decline. I kind of think that they'll do OK for themselves in the future, and we're too far behind to really catch up in the next couple decades. Which I'm fine with, though. I personally wouldn't want 100+ million people in Canada... I already dislike the effects that a growing population has had on my province (and I'm only 22). I sure do appreciate the wide open spaces on the prairies, and the beautiful national parks we have. I wouldn't want them to turn into the only places where nature could be found in future Canada.


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## cannadian (Dec 30, 2011)

MrMatt said:


> Japan has no resources and no land mass, and they've built a very prosperous economy. There are massive countries with more people, better weather, great resources who do realatively poorly.
> 
> Natural advantage only goes so far.
> 
> I think Canada has a bright future, but I wouldn't bet against the US.


Japan hasn't been doing so well for the past 20 years have they..?

And don't get me wrong, I'm not betting against the US, I'm just thinking that stock market wise the biggest Canadian companies probably have FAR more room to grow domestically you know?



KaeJS said:


> I agree. Mostly about the commodities, though.


Do you know if there's a TSX index ETF out there? One like DIA/SPY for the dow/S&P indexes?




Barwelle said:


> You've gotta think outside of your own industry. Canada, with our forests, water, minerals in the Canadian shield, oilsands, offshore oil in Newfoundland and in the North... as scarcity becomes more of an issue, Canada could stand to make a lot of money if we're smart with it. IT may not be the best choice if you want to live in Canada, but there are many other opportunities within our country. Especially, right now, if you live in / move to Alberta.
> 
> Sure it's mostly primary industry, but you need other industries to provide services to these industries and to the people. Only about 4% of Canadians are employed in the primary sector, despite its importance to our economy.
> 
> ...


Apparently there are massive oil reserves and mineral reserves in the far north as well that they're just finding out about.

And yeah I guess I prefer a smaller population as well, much safer cities and a lot of open country is nice.

I'm not sure Alberta has a housing bubble, like it does, but there's so much money to be made in the oil industry here in Alberta that I think the province will continue to draw people in regardless of housing prices (to a degree), Vancouver on the other hand... How big do you think the pop will be? 

If there was a decent crash in the Vancouver housing prices I would loooooove to buy a small apartment there. My brother bought a studio apartment there and it was over half a million lol...


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## Daniel A. (Mar 20, 2011)

Consider that Britain has double our population, a similar political system, major financial center, similar social views. The cost of living there is very high.

Our country is resource dependent as is our stock market. We give away our technology and innovation for the first ten dollars offered.
Other countries Brazil, India, China have far more depth than we can ever hope to have. The USA will buy into and control Canada's resources in the long run.

We have a great country run by fools.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

cannadian said:


> Do you know if there's a TSX index ETF out there? One like DIA/SPY for the dow/S&P indexes?


Take a look at XIU and XIC for TSX related ETF's.

XIU is the top 60 companies on the TSX.
XIC is a TSX capped composite replication of the TSX.

This thread might be able to help you:

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=7700

And for more information on iShares ETF's, visit the official website:

http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/XIC.htm

That's all I can help you with. I don't buy ETF's. I don't like them. I only trade the 3x Leveraged ETF's occasionally.


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## Barwelle (Feb 23, 2011)

cannadian said:


> I'm not sure Alberta has a housing bubble, like it does, but there's so much money to be made in the oil industry here in Alberta that I think the province will continue to draw people in regardless of housing prices (to a degree), Vancouver on the other hand... How big do you think the pop will be?


True, house prices are high but so are incomes. I wonder how "affordability" has changed (i.e. how does housing cost vs income compare over the years) That might give us a better idea of if we could call it a bubble or not.

You could buy a pretty nice house for half a mil even in Edmonton/Calgary, that's pretty nuts that all that gets him in Van is a studio apartment. I can't predict how big the pop would be! What would pop it though? From what I know, the bubble is largely due to Asian investors coming in. Maybe some kind of major downturn in Asia.

KaeJS, Just out of curiosity, what's the big reason you don't like ETFs? Other than the fact that you seem to like trading...


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Barwelle said:


> KaeJS, Just out of curiosity, what's the big reason you don't like ETFs? Other than the fact that you seem to like trading...


They are boring.

ETF's that are not leveraged generally have lower liquidity. They don't have drastic movements. You pay an MER to hold them. There's nothing to research.

I trade not only to make money, but because I enjoy it. ETF's are boring as all hell for me unless they are 3x Leveraged and I feel you can make a lot more money if you don't buy ETF's.

XIU, the ETF i posted about above is up 2.81% this year, but was down 11% last year.

I was up 4.08% last year, and I'm up 2.69% this year. So why would I hold XIU? Once I receive dividends from two companies on Monday (Jan 16th), I should be higher than XIU for this year. The dividends I receive on Monday (assuming everything else stays the same as it is now) will put me somewhere around 3.15% for the year.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

I think Canada will never match the US, simply because most of our country is too cold, so even though we have a greater land area overall, they have a greater land area that is livable, and so their population (and therefore their wealth, political influence, military might, etc) will always be much greater than ours. Now in the more distant future, if global warming makes large portions of our north much warmer, then things could change, but that won't be in our lifetime.


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## OhGreatGuru (May 24, 2009)

cannadian said:


> ...
> 
> Here's the thing, Canada has a population of under 40 million. BUT, we have more land mass, and more natural resources than the US has.
> 
> ...


Your argument is fallacious for a variety of reasons.

- Population doesn't equate to economic power. Many of the most populous countries in the world are impoverished.
- Most of our land mass is non-arable.
- Much of our land mass is economically uninhabitable. 
- Increasing population doesn't increase economic strength unless you have employment for labour-intensive industries. We have already exported most of our manufacturing jobs to cheaper countries; international mining companies don't even want to process the ore here because of labour costs; etc. Where are you going to find work for these 100M people? 
- Most of our resources are non-renewable.

I don't see how increasing the population to 100M would "help" house prices.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

OhGreatGuru said:


> Population doesn't equate to economic power.


I'd argue it does, if that population is free.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

We should never depend on more population but instead find a way to do well and grow without excess population growth. How many more people do you want to jam into your cities just so you can possibly make a few more dollars. I certainly don't want to live and deal with all the problems that come with excess population growth.


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

The future for Canadian's is very bright!


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

cannadian said:


> Do you know if there's a TSX index ETF out there? One like DIA/SPY for the dow/S&P indexes?


The lowest MER available is Vanguard's new ETF VCE which started trading in December.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I get disheartened that our leaders don't look for Canadian solutions, but rather look south to the US for their inspiration. 

When GM went bankrupt, Canada had an opportunity to buy a world class auto manufacturing company for pennies on the dollar. Instead we waited until the US made their move........and then were forced to ante up or risk losing all the associated manufacturing and service jobs. We remain a country with no Canadian owned auto manufacturing capability unlike the US, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Germany, the UK, China, and others.

We have been selling our oil for years...........and have nothing much to show for it. We have no sovereign wealth fund like other oil producers such as Norway, Saudi Arabia and others. Even the Alberta Heritage fund has been raided to pay the day to day bills. We allow foreign companies to scoop out the oil, keep the profits, and receive an often complained about "royalty" on our own oil.

Natural resources are plentiful, but supply a small % of actual jobs. Fewer farmers are producing more wheat. Small farms aren't competitive and are being gobbled up by corporations and agriculture funds. 

Our education system is in a shambles, and the corrective action taken to correct it resembles neither the extreme South Korean or the more laid back Finnish models of success. The Finnish children start school at a later age, stress no homework, fewer days in class, and enjoy the number 1 and 2 world rankings in science and mathematics. The key to success in Finland is the level of education required for teachers. A teacher must possess a Masters Degree in education and the teaching occupation is considered more presigious than that of doctors or lawyers. There are no test scores for kids........but an overwhelming determination to ensure that each child is given the attention needed to fully understand the course material.

Our present government is embarking onto the failed justice policies of the US, at a time when other countries are disengaging themselves from the same tried and failed policies.

Drug addiction is not considered a crime in many countries. It is considered and dealt with as a health problem.

But, we have a police, justice and incarceration lobby in Canada that has successfully lobbied for more power and money, to a vote pandering government looking to secure votes from a public groomed to be afraid.

When was the last time a political leader presented a vision for Canada beyond the next election cycle? 

We stumble along.......day to day.......without any national dream for our future. 

We have tens of thousands of unemployed and under skilled young people, yet the government offers little beyond an abundance of websites offering nothing more than links to more useless websites. There is no money for small business start ups, no money for apprenticeship programs, no money for people to move to regions of the country where there is work, and no plans to change any of it. Instead, the government talks about the need for foreign workers.

Canada could have an unequalled future full of prosperity, but it takes leadership and a grand plan.

At the present we have neither the leadership or the plan.


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

I tend to agree with the OP that Canada's future is bright. We are in a "sweet-spot" where we can take advantage of improvement in Western economies or benefit from the growth of emerging markets. 

Our biggest worry, IMO, is our aging population and having the base of younger workers to keep health and pension plans viable. However, this article provides an interesting suggestion:



> Canada must not be shy about taking advantage of Europe's financial distress. The Harper government should target some of the continent's best and brightest as immigrants and prospective future citizens.
> 
> Spain is a case in point. Data from the European Union states it had an unemployment rate of 22.9 per cent last fall. It is followed by Greece with 18.8 per cent.


Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Give+your+best+brightest/5982495/story.html#ixzz1jFCRgTyU


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Our gain their loss? What happens to Europe's economy when their youngest and brightest leave? I can't see how that will fix anything. It's not easy to keep this ponzi alive. lol. I am not betting on health care and pensions being around by the time I retire or for the generations immediately after mine. Most young American's would probably opt out of Social Security if it were possible and they knew the same.


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## buaya (Jan 7, 2011)

I agree completely with what sags had written. I travel a bit the last couple of years to Asia, notably Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and China the last couple of years and since I am no longer the young and starry eyed I used to be I see thing a lot differently. 
In Singapore, where from an outsider perspective it is a very prosperous society but beneath it, poverty is rampant although not as obvious as in India etc.
Canada, the place I spent my last 35 years is a great place. However, it is one where as sags write seems to be giving things away and because we are huge and has abundant resources do not feel the need to innovate and be creative unlike Finland, Norway and others, never mind the Asian ones like Korea etc.
Unless we change, in 20-30 years we could be like the US, heavily in debt but with foreign corporations making all this money off the backs of our resources, both natural and the human kind.


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## loggedout (Dec 30, 2009)

Where are you going to find 100 million people from?

The following is a bit off the track from the questions the OP is considering about Canada's economic future, but here's what I think about it:

In general, Canada has a bright future as a country with a plethora of natural resources that the world for the foreseeable future needs but who controls these will reap the benefits. This means to me, that it is largely the elite who will reap the benefits. There's also a huge risk with having all of these natural resources in what may turn out to be an increasingly hostile world given that we have limited means to defend our territory. Presently the U.S. is our benevolent big brother but they may have strategic reasons to bully us around a bit more in the future, which increases the risk of conflict and lowers the benefits we, as average citizens, could get out of our country's natural resources.

This along with consideration of certain trends in employment and technology leads me to believe that for the average working person, the future is quite bleak. Increasingly many tasks meant for people with ordinary aptitudes are being made obsolete with automation, if they haven't been shipped overseas to lower cost providers. There's a rush towards certain trades that can't be automated yet but eventually supply/demand economics due to an oversupply of workers will result in lowered wages there too. High end jobs in the knowledge economy are only suitable for those high-end aptitudes so clearly even though there may an increasing demand for these positions, there may not be enough supply.

Political and economic leaders have been unwilling to consider this future where the most average, routine jobs that make the bulk of the jobs for ordinary citizens are vanquished. I see a trends towards systemic and permanent job loss and the upheaval it will cause on an economic system dependent on consumerism and the premise that most people have the means to acquire purchasing power through work. It's all going to break down and we don't have a plan in place to change the paradigm, so it's going to be a painful adjustment, especially for those of us in western countries used to this way of life.

I am very pessimistic.


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## LondonHomes (Dec 29, 2010)

Nothing is given and alot depends upon the governments we elect.

However, when you start to compare Canada against most nations in the world we have a lot of advantages.

Are we ever going to be a "great world power"? No. But we have a very bright future.


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## zidane (Jan 8, 2012)

I agree with sags, we are selling our own natural resources to foreigners when we could be manufacturing it ourselves. This can lead to job creation and is great for Canada overall. An example would be the proposed Keystone pipeline.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Canada, as an OPEC, kills technological innovation.


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

I'm much more interested in my future rather than " the future of Canada". So difficult to even define "bright future" I would say Canada has had a pretty "bright" past and this will probably continue. but anything past about 30-40 years makes little difference to me. I chose generally to think the glass is half full though.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

IMHO
The USA is going to hell in a hand basket and will drag us down alot.
Our debt and deficit is no where near as bad....so we will survive.
2013 and on, are going to be tough years once inflation shows up.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Don't forget that a lot of the resources we claim as "ours" are also claimed by other countries, eg the Arctic resources are claimed by the US, Russia, and Denmark. And I believe that there are international rules about what resources you can claim rights to, something along the lines of "you can't claim what you can't protect", and the US and Russia have much greater power projection capability than us, even in the Arctic.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I think the main issue will involve the boundaries at Alaska and Greenland. The obvious choice would be using parallels of longitude. But then politics will bend that.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I don't think Canada will ever be a superpower. We have fully matured an it hasn't happened yet, so why should we now? We don't have the army to hold into power even if we found it. Many contries will never be superpowers but can still be 1st world and fantastic places to live. 

I don't think the USA will keep its superpower title as china starts to rise. China is next IMO. Each superpower in history lasts around 210 years before falling. Not to say the US cant stay a powerful country, but I don't think they will have full control in 40 years.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

IMO that's a good thing, there needs to be balance instead of one country bossing the whole world around. India is also getting much more powerful quickly, and Russia is recovering well since the breakup of the USSR. In 50 years there could be 4 or 5 superpowers.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Sags has definitely outlined the problems we face and the fact that we have no leadership or an effective plan and haven't for a long time. Now does anybody have some answers? 

I find it puzzling that we face issues that are often polarized. Reading the newspaper over the last week. Here is a list of newspaper articles I read this week:

Canada faces high unemployment.
Country faces worker shortages
New low interest rates excellent for economy
New lower rates will cause Canadian housing bubble to burst

These are just 4 articles of the top of my head. Clearly Sags has eloquently posted the problems and the reasons for them. However, the masses would rather stick their head in the sand, accumulate debt and listen to fear mongers and hope sellers while the politicians tell us they have all the answers. It seems that every solution creates its own new set of problems


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