# 2012 predictions contest



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I will be running the 2012 predictions contest again.

Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on Dec 31, 2012 in the following format:

DOW: 
TSX: 
GOLD: 
OIL: 
CAD: 

with the dollar amounts in USD except the TSX.

Deadline for entry is January 15th. Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before Jan 16th.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Dow: 14,000
tsx: 14,500
gold: 1800
oil: 120
cad: 0.95


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

kcowan said:


> I will be running the 2012 predictions contest again.
> 
> Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on Dec 31, 2012 in the following format:
> 
> ...


no offense but years end is anyones guess
all i can say is i want a wild ride with explosive upsides and downsides.
that is what creates a very good trading environment.
i am short a lot of stocks atm , specially defensive stocks


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

kcowan said:


> I will be running the 2012 predictions contest again.
> 
> Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on Dec 31, 2012 in the following format:
> 
> ...


...


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

Dow: 13500
tsx: 14200
gold: 1650
oil: 115.00
cad: 0.98


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

Dow: 12500
tsx: 13500
gold: 1840
oil: 132
cad: 1.01


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## leoc2 (Dec 28, 2010)

Dow: 10000
tsx: 10000
gold: 1500
oil: 85
cad: 1


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

leoc2 said:


> Dow: 10000
> tsx: 10000
> gold: 1500
> oil: 85
> cad: 1


if tsx goes to 10k and oil to 85, there's no way cad will be 1, it'll be at least 1.1...


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

DOW: 10000
TSX: 9500
Gold: 1500
Oil (WTI): 60
CAD/USD: 0.80


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

DOW: 12,000
TSX: 10,500
Gold: 1,500
Oil (WTI): 100
CAD/USD: .95


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

The wild card this year is the US election and what impact that will have. I don't know if the Fed will pull the plug on the US debt scam or plan on the election year. 

DOW: 9200
TSX: 9500
Gold: 2000
Oil: 70
CAD/USD .84


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I expect a "nothing year" for 2012. Dividend payers for me.

DOW: 12300
TSX: 12000
Gold: 1500
Oil: 100
CAD/USD 1.00


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## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

I also expect a fairly flat year:

DOW: 13,500
TSX: 12,500
Gold: 1,000
Oil (WTI): 90
CAD/USD: 0.95


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

OK. Here you go.

DOW: 15,480
TSX: 14,530
Gold: 1,160
Oil (WTI): 113
CAD/USD: 1.03


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Dow: 12,900
TSX: 12,500
Gold: 1,650
Oil: 99
C$: 1.0

Trying the same numbers as 2011 except TSX revised down from 14,500 to show weakness in O&G and banks.

(Edit: Revised upward slightly.)


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Dow: 12,700
TSX: 13,000
Gold: 1700
Oil: 110
C$: 1.02


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

spx 1000


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

blin10 said:


> spx 1000


wow and i am the bearish guy here
alright i will throw out my thoughts.
we go nowhere in all indexes and end where we r at, although i deffinittely see aretest of the lows on spx 500 below 1076
gold will look to retest 1300
silkver will fall of a cliff and retest 24 bux
oil is a tough one , geopolitical so no idea where this thing is goin
copper retest of 3 bux
usd may hit high 80/but not past 92 (index)


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## cato (Jul 4, 2011)

DOW: 13438
TSX: 12910
Gold: 1600
Oil (WTI): 100
CAD/USD: 0.95


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

DOW 12,900
TSX 12,350
Gold 2000
Oil 97
C$: 1.07


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## w0nger (Mar 15, 2010)

DOW: 11852
TSX: 12500
Gold: 1,600
Oil (WTI): 120
CAD/USD: 1.02


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

I didn't check numbers, but one analyst said that it's very rare that TSX has back to back loosing years...
DOW: 12300
TSX: 12300
Gold: 1,650
Oil (WTI): 95
CAD/USD: 0.98


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## brocko (Apr 20, 2009)

Dow:13023, TSX:12947,Oil:104.50 ,Gold:1665 , CAD:.965


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

blin10 said:


> spx 1000


spx is not included. You need to supply all the forecast items to be included in the contest.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

DOW: 13097
TSX: 12816
Gold: 2000
Oil: 100
CAD/USD: 1.0


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## DanFo (Apr 9, 2011)

DOW: 11950
TSX: 12100
Gold: 1,500
Oil : 105
CAD/USD: 0.99


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

*Experts and their forecast accuracy*
Average of 8.3% off. Note that their average for 2012 will decline from 2011.


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

kcowan said:


> *Experts and their forecast accuracy*
> Average of 8.3% off. Note that their average for 2012 will decline from 2011.


So all we know for certain now, is that the S&P500 return will either be above 18.9% or below a loss of 1.6%


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Interesting to see forecasts for previous years... if guy #1 guessed just by "fluk" or not


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## cannadian (Dec 30, 2011)

Dow: 13,500
tsx: 13,750
gold: $2,250
oil: $115
cad: 1.00


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

Love how the Deutch Bank analyst just keeps picking 1500. LOL


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Eventually the 1500 will hit and he'll be considered a genious


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The market is in for another volatile year and, when December 31 rolls around everything will end up exactly where it started on January 3.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Lephturn said:


> Love how the Deutch Bank analyst just keeps picking 1500. LOL


Probably it's his strategy to play rouletta


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Belguy said:


> The market is in for another volatile year and, when December 31 rolls around everything will end up exactly where it started on January 3.


You know ... if on Dec 31, 2012 prices of all my equities will be the same as of Jan 3 - it won't be too bad as I'll pick up about 3.5% in dividends that is much better than HISA or 1 year GIC


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Belguy should be banned for the gross overuse of the  emoticon...


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

OptsyEagle said:


> So all we know for certain now, is that the S&P500 return will either be above 18.9% or below a loss of 1.6%


I think we know that these guys are always optimistic, and so if their average forecast for 2012 is 1334, the most likely outcome is 8.3% lower than that (1223). But be careful with using too many numbers. Guesses are more likely to be right.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Dow: 14,000
tsx: 14,000
gold: 1,400
oil: 120
cad: 91


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

One more week to get your forecasts in.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Dow: 13,500
tsx: 12,700
gold: 1,825
oil: 115
cad: .98


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## madeincanada (Dec 2, 2011)

Dow: 13900
tsx: 13600
gold: 1950
oil: 120
cad: 0.90


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## Dibs (May 26, 2011)

Dow: 15000
tsx: 15000
gold: 1500
oil: 115
cad: 1.05


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

What the heck and for what it is worth (i.e. nothing!)

DOW: 14100
TSX: 13300
GOLD: 1450
OIL: 96
CAD: 0.92


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## natalie_d (Nov 25, 2009)

DOW: 13500
TSX: 12800
Gold: 1350
Oil: 110
CAD: 0.93


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Hmm...most folks seems to be predicting sideways markets this year.
Maybe, this will be the greatest bull market since 2009 (I hope).


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## tombiosis (Dec 18, 2010)

DOW 14300
TSX 12750
Gold 1550
Oil 110
CAD .94


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

If anyone can find a forecast by Gordon Pape or other famed prognosticators, please post them here. Thanks.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

avrex selects, 
DOW: 13850
TSX: 13280
Gold: 1760
Oil : 103.50
CAD: 0.96


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Ops I forgot but markets haven't opened yet if it counts..

DOW $13,501
TSX $12,825
Gold $1701
OIL $120.50
CAD 1.021


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

OK here are the latest results as entered. Please check for keying errors:


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

yay dormouse rules !


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Early leader is kcowan but way to soon to judge.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Are you speaking about yourself in third person?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

This game is rigged.
I demand a re-count, Florida style.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Harold, you're 2 funny.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Sorry the decision of the judge is final!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

webber22 is the current leader.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan is once again in the lead.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

This game is rigged, as I said above


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Well today officially marked the end of 1st quarter. 3 more to go...


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I will subject the spreadsheet to an audit when the $540 million prize is awarded. (Oh wait that is another game of chance...)


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> This game is rigged, as I said above


Why do you think I dropped out from the contest this year? 

And so we ended Q1 with the Dow and S&P 500's best 1st Q in over a decade! 

Now to Q2!


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## Dibs (May 26, 2011)

Is there a link to the spreadsheet?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

kcowan said:


> I will subject the spreadsheet to an audit when the $540 million prize is awarded.


I strongly recommend the auditing firm of Ernst & Young LLP.
Their most recent customer was a TSX listed corporation called "Sino Forest".


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Dibs said:


> Is there a link to the spreadsheet?


No but at year end, I post the expanded results from the spreadsheet (rankings by category).

See here.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

No change in overall leadership for April. See latest results up thread.


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## kendrew (May 23, 2012)

*forecast*



kcowan said:


> If anyone can find a forecast by Gordon Pape or other famed prognosticators, please post them here. Thanks.


I read his forecasts back in January but when I tried to post it here yesterday my message was deleted by a moderator. Is it too late?


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## boipinoi604 (Feb 13, 2012)

I'm gonna go with the mayans


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## jet powder (May 29, 2012)

I remember reading once there was a contest where prices for differnt markets would be in the future & one of the brokers put down the exact number the markets were trading @ in that moment. I was to late to put my prediction in but I wonder if someone would have done or did that in this case if they would be the winner ?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kendrew
I can add Papes forecasts if you can find them. He cannot win.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The new leader is, wait for it, the most accurate guy predicting where we would be today, belguy with an average error of just 4.3%. Boy he must be really happy with how this year is shaping up!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The new leader is gibor with an average error of 5.2%.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

No change - gibor has improved the accuracy to 4.7%!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

New leader for August is kcowan with an accuracy of 2.5%


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

kcowan said:


> No change - gibor has improved the accuracy to 4.7%!


Holly-Molly  I even didn't know that I was in the top of the table for 2 month!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan has hung onto his lead with an overall accuracy of 4.4% just edging out gibor at 4.5% this month.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

kcowan said:


> kcowan has hung onto his lead with an overall accuracy of 4.4% just edging out gibor at 4.5% this month.


Go Gibor Go  What is the first prize?!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Not sure about 1st prize, but I know yours would be:

a rouletta board game. :biggrin:


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

lol! ... suggestion: how about 2 tickets to Vegas or the nearest Casino (cheaper cost)? :biggrin:


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

*kcowan,*

Is it possible to get another chart done up like the one below?



kcowan said:


> OK here are the latest results as entered. Please check for keying errors:


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Keith, would you be my financial advisor? What is your fee? Where do we start with my current portfolio of low fee, broad based ETF's and a 50/40/10 asset allocation of equities/fixed income/cash?


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

The one that is posted was updated as of Sept 30th


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

I have 2 within 0.5%, 2 under 4%, and then one off by nearly 25% :hopelessness:


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## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

:rolleyes2: The 25% off was probably me on my bold gold bet


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Xoron said:


> :rolleyes2: The 25% off was probably me on my bold gold bet


Yea your gold is still off by a whopping 43%, now take that out and your error is merely 2.5%! Take out my crazy oil and I'm off by 2.2% as well d'oh


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## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

mode3sour said:


> Yea your gold is still off by a whopping 43%,


I'm like the anti-gold bug. I still don't understand how people think it's worth more than what someone else is willing to pay for it.

Like a giant pyramid scheme, with someone (likely me) holding the bag when it all comes crumbling down.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I invest in the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund which has a one year return of -29.2% but a 3 year annualized return of +14.1% and a 5 year annualized return of +11.2%. I just keep holding it forever only trading for rebalancing purposes to maintain my 5 percent overall asset allocation.

http://funds.rbcgam.com/pdf/fund-pages/monthly/rbf1038_e.pdf

Investments such as these add volatility to a portfolio but also additional diversification.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

KaeJS said:


> *kcowan,*
> 
> Is it possible to get another chart done up like the one below?


Sure but tell me what you don't like about that one.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

kcowan said:


> Sure but tell me what you don't like about that one.


Ha!

I was looking at the date of your post, and not the date on the chart.

I see now that it is as of September 30.

:stupid:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

KaeJS said:


> Ha!
> 
> I was looking at the date of your post, and not the date on the chart.
> 
> ...


I find that a repost is only necessary to keep a version showing on the last page of posts. So here it is:
Current results:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan still in the lead with 4.3% error, gibor hanging tough with 4.7%.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan has improved his lead with 3.6% error, with gibor still hanging tough with 4.1% error.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Dang!!!:upset::frown-new::chargrined::dispirited:


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

So the winners will tell us where the market is going next year. We should start a hedge fund based on that. Lol


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Not likely. This year's winner will be next year's also ran.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

kcowan said:


> Not likely. This year's winner will be next year's also ran.


Then why am I planning on hiring this year's winner to be my financial advisor for next year?:confused2:


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I'm not on the list, but you can hire me, NOT! :tongue-new:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The final results are in. The overall winner is kcowan with an average error of 2.4% and runners up are gibor with 2.9% and cato with 5.2%.

Here are the final ranking by category:









Congratulations to all participants. Guesses for 2013 will be accepted in the 2013 Predictions thread until Jan 14th at 9:30 am EST.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Congratulations Keith but I came in 4th!! Not bad for someone who is often dismissed here as not knowing much about investing!! Where did some of them come in on the list?

Just asking.:rolleyes2:eaceful::biggrin-new::highly_amused:


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Well I am going to have a brain swell , I came in #1 for something lol .I knew I was way off the gold and $cad but a girl can dream .


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## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

My gold and CAD predictions completely drowned me. Otherwise I'm pretty happy with my predictions


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

marina (and other contest participants)
These are the final results. An outdated yahoo link caused a change from the initial post.

CMF 2012 Hall of Fame Award Winners

Keith


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

:victorious::victorious:


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Hooray, I won the Dow. It lagged the S&P quite a bit though. They need to update the list.


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