# Oil up 6+%



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Oil up 6%. US rig count below 400 (down from 2000). Gee. And real estate down in Fort McMurray. Could be time to buy a rental property in Fort McMurray in anticipation of workers returning.....

Anyway, it sure looks like the worst is over in the oil patch.....well there is a way to go, but it seems the Saudi strategy is working, and oil prices will, in fits and starts, work there way back up.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

I do not own any oil

There is some oil in my TDB funds

Will wait to get back in

BTE,MEG,SU,CVE,IMO,CPG for 100k total maybe in the next quarter


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Every Canadian investor is already exposed to oil & commodities in general. I don't see the need to take on extra commodities exposure.

Examples, TSX has energy & commodities, banks have energy lending exposure and M&A in energy, employment is linked to commodities, etc

Even if you have no stock investments, assuming you have positive net worth denominated in CAD, you're still exposed to commodities. A continuing bull market in commodities will increase everyone's CAD-based wealth. The CAD is up 7% vs the USD since the January lows; we've all become wealthier.

Given all the exposure we have, actually, the wiser thing may be to bet against commodities as a hedge. Otherwise if commodities fall, everything you own plummets (including your cash due to forex).


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Apparently a lot of hedges are expiring which will contribute to production cuts in near future. there is not a big difference between supply and demand. I'm assuming this means this collapse is nearing an end.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Every Canadian investor is already exposed to oil & commodities in general. I don't see the need to take on extra commodities exposure.
> 
> Examples, TSX has energy & commodities, banks have energy lending exposure and M&A in energy, employment is linked to commodities, etc
> 
> ...


Yes, good point. Generally I don't own any oil or resource stuff. But (in retrospect) I foolishly bought some when the plunge was only 1/2 done. (so much for active management,LOL). I couldn't figure out why so many companies kept selling oil, but the obvious answer was the hedges - they were not selling at the spot price, but the hedged price. Now the hedges are expiring production is dropping more. I should have known - oil wouldn't bottom until the hedges expired. LIve and learn.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Pluto said:


> Apparently a lot of hedges are expiring which will contribute to production cuts in near future. there is not a big difference between supply and demand. I'm assuming this means this collapse is nearing an end.


That is not something that has been covered well in the press....or from so called experts. These so called experts have wondered why production has held up so 'stubbornly'. Lots of reasons actually, one of them being the oils beating the crap out of their suppliers, but another key one has been hedged production. I wonder if anyone has any idea how much production was hedged through the end of 2015, how much fell off after that, and how much more will fall off at the end of June. I suspect there are few "useful" hedges into 2017 because the cost of those hedges would have started to get expensive by the end of 2014 and downright grotesque come the end of 2015. When the counterparties are bleeding from their cartoid artery, they are not in the mood for taking on more risk.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

james4beach said:


> Every Canadian investor is already exposed to oil & commodities in general. I don't see the need to take on extra commodities exposure.
> 
> Examples, TSX has energy & commodities, banks have energy lending exposure and M&A in energy, employment is linked to commodities, etc
> 
> ...




But for me with not needing any of my money from investments for ten years plus,can not hold to much cash,now holding maybe 10% plus in cash so all looks good,hoping all my inveatments are at the low end, going back to 2009


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Pluto said:


> Oil up 6%. US rig count below 400 (down from 2000). Gee. And real estate down in Fort McMurray. Could be time to buy a rental property in Fort McMurray in anticipation of workers returning.....
> 
> Anyway, it sure looks like the worst is over in the oil patch.....well there is a way to go, but it seems the Saudi strategy is working, and oil prices will, in fits and starts, work there way back up.


I am not sure oil recovering to some useful level say $60 necessarily equates to back to business as usual in Alberta. I think that what happens in Alberta will lag the world price by many years due to high cost, general survival mode/balance sheet repair, recentcy bias of everyone being good and spooked, high skilled workers gone elsewhere after being laid off, NDP provincially, Liberal federally, and who knows what else.

hboy43


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Oil is at a low valuation. Aren't you supposed to buy low to make money? Ah, such is investing. Easy to do in hindsight. "I can't believe I didn't buy more oil companies when it was under $40 a barrel and we had the biggest production cutbacks in history, it was so obvious!". Or not


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## donna9 (Apr 9, 2016)

Still not a fan of oil especially with the chaos it has been going through for these past months and the sudden giant interest in EVs (e.g. record pre-orders)


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

doctrine said:


> Oil is at a low valuation. Aren't you supposed to buy low to make money?


That's what I said about gold too over the last couple of years, but wise CMF'ers corrected my stupidity multiple times. Apparently you're not supposed to buy commodities when they're low. (Especially not gold since it doesn't even pay dividends! Imagine!)

Luckily, it's _always_ time to buy stocks, no matter what the price! lol


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## RUSH2112 (Mar 25, 2012)

I have a bet on Twin Butte Energy, TBE - TSX, one block of shares to sell and one block to keep.

I researched many oil companies and this was the best oil stock for the money, still surviving.

If your lucky, you could get in at 10 cents first thing Monday mourning if the price of oil stays under $40.00

They are surviving but if there is a significant oil price drop, it could be risky.

Lots of upside potential from what I see.

Be aware their are different press releases out there, someone being paid to bash the company pretty good.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Ugh, TBE would not be my pick, they've already said they might be a going concern (I owned shares years ago). If you are right though, you could make a big return since it's almost being priced for bankruptcy.

Oil is definitely harder than holding gold, at least gold you can put it under your mattress. Your significant other might complain about a hundred barrels of oil stored in the living room


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## RUSH2112 (Mar 25, 2012)

*Twin Butte Energy*



doctrine said:


> Ugh, TBE would not be my pick, they've already said they might be a going concern (I owned shares years ago). If you are right though, you could make a big return since it's almost being priced for bankruptcy.
> 
> Oil is definitely harder than holding gold, at least gold you can put it under your mattress. Your significant other might complain about a hundred barrels of oil stored in the living room


Not being in the tar sands and having some nice oil assets makes them a very attractive stock.

There are more higher end oil stocks but TBE has a lot of upside potential.

And it's coming up from it's bottom, huge volume everyday.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

doctrine said:


> Oil is at a low valuation. Aren't you supposed to buy low to make money? Ah, such is investing. Easy to do in hindsight. "I can't believe I didn't buy more oil companies when it was under $40 a barrel and we had the biggest production cutbacks in history, it was so obvious!". Or not


I'm long oil. Will I be right? I have no idea but I don't see our energy consumption on a domestic or global scale tanking anytime soon. I will continue to hold about 10% of my portfolio in O&G stocks because of that hunch.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

My Own Advisor said:


> I will continue to hold about 10% of my portfolio in O&G stocks because of that hunch.


Don't you hold the TSX too? That's 20% energy


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

According to one of the BNN guests, Cardinal Energy, CJ, is one to buy. 
(I already have PG, and HSE so I think I'll pass on CJ. After the oil industry recovers I'll sell those as well and stay away from oil - except for pipelines, of course.)


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## Islenska (May 4, 2011)

Oil could change in a heartbeat, just like farming/grain prices, that shot from left field comes out of nowhere !!


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Islenska said:


> Oil could change in a heartbeat, just like farming/grain prices, that shot from left field comes out of nowhere !!


Yes. I am now waiting for the "in a heartbeat" moment. The last 3 or 4 tranches have ~ doubled, the whole oil portfolio is around break even with an ACB of about 1/5 the 5 year high prices. In the "sit on hands" period, perhaps for years, neither buying nor selling (other than LRE buy out of course) waiting for my reward.

hboy43


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Yes, oil has the potential for a rapid recover because we're dealing with decisions made my people devoid of physical constraints. OPEC could cut production and oil will rebound terribly fast shooting up at a ridiculous pace. It would be so rapid, it would be difficult to capitalize on it if you weren't already in the market. 

Sits on hands.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Be careful of assumptions. http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-04-10/saudi-arabia-oil-gambit-moves-to-phase-two

I foresee the Gulf states allowing oil prices to get to some level, perhaps $50, and then turning open the valves to keep it from going much higher. You speculate on oil at your very own risk.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> Be careful of assumptions. http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-04-10/saudi-arabia-oil-gambit-moves-to-phase-two
> 
> I foresee the Gulf states allowing oil prices to get to some level, perhaps $50, and then turning open the valves to keep it from going much higher. You speculate on oil at your very own risk.


Missing key ingredients in that article, specifically the next 'phase.' It's to get everyone else to drop production and then drop as well. They are ramping up production not because they can afford to do it (they can't), but because if they don't, the force of their strength and resolve appears weak (maintain market share at any cost - but not really). So they drill to show that they are ready to sink with the ship......UNLESS and this is the big one....they don't need to cut production or cut production in concert with and one with others. Others blink, they blink too. Others don't, they don't.

In the long term, S.A. can not afford to sink their ship, and, they are sinking. It's just that they have a deep haul and can afford to rock the waters.

I keep having to repeat this. They are just as happy as the next guy to have oil at $100+, so long as they don't need to cut their own output, or, so long as it's not them taking the full burden of the cut. They need oil at $100 in order to maintain their state of affairs. 90% of their population works for the state and that state relies on oil. They are all the same with other oil producers, but rather than debt, they have cash reserves which are slowly turning into piles of debt.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> Be careful of assumptions. http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-04-10/saudi-arabia-oil-gambit-moves-to-phase-two
> 
> I foresee the Gulf states allowing oil prices to get to some level, perhaps $50, and then turning open the valves to keep it from going much higher. You speculate on oil at your very own risk.


Based on this premise, S.A. will have to double their oil output to generate the same cash. Oil at $100 means they can sell half as much oil for the same revenue. This argument doesn't make any (business) sense.


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## jiminssy (Mar 20, 2016)

*I would be hesitant on that*



Pluto said:


> Oil up 6%. US rig count below 400 (down from 2000). Gee. And real estate down in Fort McMurray. Could be time to buy a rental property in Fort McMurray in anticipation of workers returning.....
> 
> Anyway, it sure looks like the worst is over in the oil patch.....well there is a way to go, but it seems the Saudi strategy is working, and oil prices will, in fits and starts, work there way back up.


I would be careful with buying up rental properties there for following reasons
1. Oil companies will hold back on going full steam production for awhile even if the price creeps up to 60.
2. Financial institutions will cut back on loans to these oil companies. (meaning this is now viewed as high risk profile. Things just won't be the same as before.)
3. Companies like Horizon that set rental camps for the workers will try to cover their costs renting out bargain rental deals. For them, making some money is better than no money. It would be tough to find tenants.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Chris L said:


> Based on this premise, S.A. will have to double their oil output to generate the same cash. Oil at $100 means they can sell half as much oil for the same revenue. This argument doesn't make any (business) sense.


i believe you miss the point entirely. This is not about generating the same cash at all. It is about securing their share of the market longer term at a price they think they can manage their domestic situation with. For that, they need to have enough surplus capacity to keep prices from getting out of control again and creating production increases yet again out of Russia, USA, Canada et al. The best way to ensure your survival is to control the wheel and that is exactly what SA is doing. They WANT to keep prices low enough to keep alternative supplies off the market....and it will, if corporate planners have to incorporate a ceiling price on oil. There won't be much in the way of US shale oil production increases @ $50 and there sure won't be any oil sands meaga-projects either.


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## godblsmnymkr (Jul 15, 2015)

AltaRed said:


> i believe you miss the point entirely. This is not about generating the same cash at all. It is about securing their share of the market longer term at a price they think they can manage their domestic situation with. For that, they need to have enough surplus capacity to keep prices from getting out of control again and creating production increases yet again out of Russia, USA, Canada et al. The best way to ensure your survival is to control the wheel and that is exactly what SA is doing. They WANT to keep prices low enough to keep alternative supplies off the market....and it will, if corporate planners have to incorporate a ceiling price on oil. There won't be much in the way of US shale oil production increases @ $50 and there sure won't be any oil sands meaga-projects either.


with all due respect AR, due to your questions earlier about hedges I don't think people should be listening to your macro opinions on where the price of oil is going. 
you can view each companies hedges because they all list their hedges in easy to find information. anybody who was caught off guard by hedging effecting the price of oil wasnt knowledgeable enough to invest in oil in the first place. 

James, you are right about canadians having a lot of oil exposure already if they are indexing. however, this is the largest bear market in oil of all time. today for the first time in 1.5 years oil hit its 200day MA. fortunes are made at the bottom of bear markets. in 2009, you could have thought your exposure to financials was fine and dandy so no need to increase your exposure. you would have missed out on the opportunity of a lifetime and thats the way I'm looking at oil stocks today. 

i think the bottom is in but I'm not going to reason why i think its in as its a very long explanations. I think the safest way to proceed if you want to get oil exposure is invest in the pipelines first. I like IPL (just announced record Quarterly and annual profit. diversified business) and PPL (lowest Debt/EBITDA ratio and a lot of growth projected ahead.) if you look at the EIA weekly reports, canadian oil exports to USA have not slowed down. they are flat to moderately higher. the E&P's might be in trouble at current prices, but their 2016 BOE/D guidance is generally -10% - +5% so you can expect the pipelines to keep processing volume.

next I like the E&P companies with the highest netbacks/lowest costs and hedged well for 2016 with low amounts of debt to repay over the next few years. I like CPG the most followed by WCP and BTE. also like CNQ and EOG but not as much. CPG WCP and BTE have suffered from a lot of forced selling my funds who had to sell when they reduced their dividends. this accentuated the down move and I think they are good value here.
the issue with investing now is that you have the April 17 OPEC special meeting and its impossible to game which way the market will move after. I'm most likely sitting on my hands until then.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

godblsmnymkr said:


> with all due respect AR, due to your questions earlier about hedges I don't think people should be listening to your macro opinions on where the price of oil is going.
> you can view each companies hedges because they all list their hedges in easy to find information. anybody who was caught off guard by hedging effecting the price of oil wasnt knowledgeable enough to invest in oil in the first place.


Just so you know, I do not invest in commodities (small holding in CNQ notwithstanding). Also, I spent 30 yrs in the patch, much of it in planning and economics. It is true no one knows where oil is going, how fast and when.

Edited for spelling

Addition: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ers-loosing-shield-from-rout-as-hedges-expire is the sort of data I was looking for across the industry. A sampling of 19 smell to mid-sized companies is likely not very representative. I suspect some institution has gone through the pain of combing financials of the bulk of the industry to find out but doubt they are giving away that data for free. Perhaps even more relevant would be the US shale oil producers. The big mega-corps (or at least most of them never hedge).


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Oil rockets up because they will talk, imagine if they actually make a decision to freeze and then thaw production? Could turn around very quickly.

You assume that they don't want prices to come back up. But they do. So, the meeting will solidify agreements to freeze production with good results for oil prices (you see that now). Then production will either freeze or not (it's not material). If production does not freeze and inventory not fall, then they will meet again and again and again until production falls all around limiting supply.

You think they want prices to decline in order to stifle other companies, but you don't realize that they won't need to stifle companies if the price of oil rebounds. Then they can have their cake and eat it too.

They will agree to freeze production and then they will figure out how to get OPEC back on track. There's no other solution to oil producing nations. This experiment was a failure.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I believe this was a temporary play all along by SA to get the Western world to suffer. Oil won't stay down forever and I have a hunch, although not proven, that if it climbs back to $100 in a few years, a number of people could be very wealthy (including O&G investors) who backed up the truck this past winter. 

We'll see...this is how the commodity market is played...


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Certainly anything is possible. Time will tell. Bottom line though... resources/commodities/materials are highly cyclic. I just am not playing commodities at all.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

My Own Advisor said:


> I believe this was a temporary play all along by SA to get the Western world to suffer. Oil won't stay down forever and I have a hunch, although not proven, that if it climbs back to $100 in a few years, a number of people could be very wealthy (including O&G investors) who backed up the truck this past winter.
> 
> We'll see...this is how the commodity market is played...


If oil goes back to $100, I'm out. Going to load up a little more shortly. Things are up today, but this will wind down going into the actual meeting (theoretically). There won't be any big news coming out of the meeting so likely this is currently being priced in. However, a meeting is quite symbolic. The real issue is if US oil production will drop enough to match what Iran is bringing up board as well as how demand catches up to supply. Eventually the stars will line up for $100+ oil. We may even see oil hit even higher than previous highs as the market works to catch up for projects that were shut down. Should be good for the survivors.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

That's the key eh Chris....should be good for the survivors. The challenge is, who will they be?  I would like to think they are large blue-chippers including the integrated companies here in Canada: SU, CNQ, HSE, CPG and a few others. The juniors might be wiped out or bought out. Surprised the M&A hasn't already started....


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

My Own Advisor said:


> Surprised the M&A hasn't already started....


It has... I own BNK (Bankers Petroleum) and it was announced as taken over a few weeks back. It should be interesting to see what else happens.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

My Own Advisor said:


> That's the key eh Chris....should be good for the survivors. The challenge is, who will they be?  I would like to think they are large blue-chippers including the integrated companies here in Canada: SU, CNQ, HSE, CPG and a few others. The juniors might be wiped out or bought out. Surprised the M&A hasn't already started....


I think some of the juniors will make it through as well. I would hope that their value will at least be preserved and will come out okay in a sale. CVE is sitting on piles of cash so could be sucking up some dead fish. Although I think they are probably looking for some more certainty rather than get head faked by S.A. They still really do hold the cards in this. Until they are at full capacity, they could still play that hand. I think they have already crippled big investments. Investing coming forward is going to be a lot more cautious for a long while until all this is (temporarily) forgotten. S.A. could then destabilize again in the future, perpetually squashing high cost producers. That's why this isn't a buy and hold forever kind of deal. I wouldn't want to hold so that S.A. could chop my head off whenever they decide their market share is decreasing once more. I would presume however, that oil would overshoot $100 in the medium term and then S.A. rush back in and repeat this process again.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Spudd said:


> It has... I own BNK (Bankers Petroleum) and it was announced as taken over a few weeks back. It should be interesting to see what else happens.


Bought out for $2.20 on $1.87. 

As long as the assets are sound, I don't see how there is a big risk to being bought out. There still are brick, mortar, etc. protecting the value. So as long as you didn't purchase before the decline, things should work out okay. Many companies are trading below their asset values.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

jiminssy said:


> I would be careful with buying up rental properties there for following reasons
> 1. Oil companies will hold back on going full steam production for awhile even if the price creeps up to 60.
> 2. Financial institutions will cut back on loans to these oil companies. (meaning this is now viewed as high risk profile. Things just won't be the same as before.)
> 3. Companies like Horizon that set rental camps for the workers will try to cover their costs renting out bargain rental deals. For them, making some money is better than no money. It would be tough to find tenants.


yeah, I see your point. So I'll back off of that. Anyway it is nice to see oil show signs of life.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

My Own Advisor said:


> I believe this was a temporary play all along by SA to get the Western world to suffer. Oil won't stay down forever and I have a hunch, although not proven, that if it climbs back to $100 in a few years, a number of people could be very wealthy (including O&G investors) who backed up the truck this past winter.
> 
> We'll see...this is how the commodity market is played...


Yes. When Getty was buying up oil properties in the 1950's when oil was cheap he got laughed at. By the 1970's no one was laughing - except him laughing all the way to the bank. I say buy quality survivors and hang on for the inevitable price recovery.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Spudd said:


> It has... I own BNK (Bankers Petroleum) and it was announced as taken over a few weeks back. It should be interesting to see what else happens.



re O & G acquisitions, what i see is that these have been proceeding at a certain pace for more than a year. Acquiring smaller companies at bargain prices was a publicly-announced goal of CPG way back in late 2014.

re bankers there's a significant amount of leverage in the share price at present. BNK at 1.87 while china's Geo Jade Petroleum has offered to buy for all-cash CAD 2.20. So far, i'm not aware of risks to the deal that would a discount that big, one might even be tempted to buy more shares for a 33 penny gain.

the Geo Jade deal has unanimous approval from bankers board of directors. The company has scheduled a shareholders' meeting for the end of may. Regulatory approval also has to obtained in china.

in a similar but troubled move, canada's Nexen was acquired by china's CNOOC in 2014. The long-drawn-out takeover, which streamed all the way up to then-PM stephen harper, was controversial from the getgo. In July 2015 Nexen suffered the worst pipeline rupture in canadian history at its Long Lake alberta oilsands facility, on what was said to be newly-installed pipe.

http://business.financialpost.com/n...g-football-field-of-black-goo?__lsa=1365-fc58

bankers petroleum oilfields are in Albania. The company is facing tax issues with the government of albania, which is seeking more tax revenues for itself. Bankers also has wildcat exploration properties in hungary & roumania.


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## godblsmnymkr (Jul 15, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...and-rises-to-record-on-gasoline-diesel-growth


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-26-oil-may-not-125647139.html

article claims oil may go back to 26 or lower. Not saying I believe him, just a perspective to note. He focuses on the freeze meeting only in the article. Seems to assume no production freeze = dropping prices. He doesn't mention hedges expiring, and US rig count dropping like a 737 with no engines.

The recent pop up seems to be mostly short covering pending the freeze production meeting. They will likely fail to freeze. Be interesting to see what happens after that failure. I'm looking forward to an oil world uninfluenced by artificial supply constraints. Bye Bye OPEC.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

^^

pluto you were saying how you think the bottom in oil is in. You're a good chartist. Even if we rule out a current jump-for-the-freeze in oil price, aren't charts showing recent higher highs & higher lows ...

rig share prices aren't showing a crashing 737 plunge to earth any more, i have exposure to precision drilling, transocean, trican well service, the latter the riskiest since the banks could topple TCW any moment they choose.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Negotiations between 16 oil producers in Doha ended without any agreement on limiting supplies, a diplomatic failure that threatens to renew the rout in prices.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-end-in-failure-amid-saudi-demands-over-iran


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

I don't get what all the excitement was about anyways; 

an agreement to freeze production at a time when all the taps are wide open only means that they would pledge to continue pumping as fast as they possibly can.

Just some empty rhetoric to try and bump prices temporarily is how I saw it.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> ^^
> 
> pluto you were saying how you think the bottom in oil is in. You're a good chartist. Even if we rule out a current jump-for-the-freeze in oil price, aren't charts showing recent higher highs & higher lows ...
> 
> rig share prices aren't showing a crashing 737 plunge to earth any more, i have exposure to precision drilling, transocean, trican well service, the latter the riskiest since the banks could topple TCW any moment they choose.


I don't know a lot about the drillers and service companies. Where is Dick Chaney when we need him? Doesn't surprise me that those stocks are popping up too. probably short covering. 

I do think 26 was the low, no guarantees. There is a lot of noise about the so called production freeze meeting that may be contributing to the oil price getting a bit ahead of itself. there should be a reaction to the downside soon, but I don't think it will be back to the 26 low in light of production drops and rig counts down. Global production is dropping bit by bit. With hedges expiring the drop in production should continue. There is only about a million barrels a day over supply, so what's going to stop that from shrinking to a balance?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

mrPPincer said:


> I don't get what all the excitement was about anyways;
> 
> an agreement to freeze production at a time when all the taps are wide open only means that they would pledge to continue pumping as fast as they possibly can.
> 
> Just some empty rhetoric to try and bump prices temporarily is how I saw it.


Everything is just market speculation .

On the other hand...

Kuwait Crude Output Drops 60% as Oil Workers Strike Over Pay.



> The plunge in Kuwait’s output “is just shocking,” Edward Bell, a commodities analyst at Dubai-based bank Emirates NBD PJSC, said Sunday by phone. “That would take care of the surplus right there. There could be quite a bit of upside in oil tomorrow.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...perating-after-it-says-oil-workers-walked-out

It will be interesting day for oil (and markets) on Monday


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

^Definitely seems logical that as the unprofitable players drop off, and if the major opec players (sans Iran) could agree to a freeze that the overproduction could eventually shrink to a balance.
I guess it has to at some point or another doesn't it?


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

> It will be interesting day for oil (and markets) on Monday


I'll be sure to be watching (& maybe pop up some popcorn)


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

> Global production is dropping bit by bit.


 see post 45... Middle East is unpredictable place...who knows , maybe some other OPEC countries gonna have strikes


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Looks like no deal on a freeze

Thinking a drop in oil at the open in the morning,maybe banks also


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

1980z28 said:


> Looks like no deal on a freeze
> 
> Thinking a drop in oil at the open in the morning,maybe banks also


It's just amazing how Saudis can manipulate the markets!


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

mrPPincer said:


> ^Definitely seems logical that as the unprofitable players drop off, and if the major opec players (sans Iran) could agree to a freeze that the overproduction could eventually shrink to a balance.
> I guess it has to at some point or another doesn't it?


You are 100% correct (other than there will be an agreement on a freeze). The question is when....


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Iran will agree on a freeze after they rev up production to where it was before and realize that they can't make money lol.

Saudis think they still hold all the chips and are (empty) threatening to sink the ship with them at the helm. Won't happen. Let Iran flinch they say. Market will drop and recover. This is a non-event as predicted. Pick up off the next lows. New chance to get back in.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Chris L said:


> Iran will agree on a freeze after they rev up production to where it was before and realize that they can't make money lol.
> 
> Saudis think they still hold all the chips and are (empty) threatening to sink the ship with them at the helm. Won't happen. Let Iran flinch they say. Market will drop and recover. This is a non-event as predicted. Pick up off the next lows. New chance to get back in.


This is exactly what I'm thinking ... to add late Mon , Tue some stocks and which ones...depends on the drop....maybe SU, CNQ, XOM, CVX


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

At the opening oil futures down 7%, S&P and DOW down about 0.6%, CAD$ down 1%


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Sold all my banks on Wednesday last week

So sitting in cash,waiting for the 6 to 10% drop in oil plus others in the morning

will maybe some equities on sale in the morning ,,but will wait a couple 3 days for some buys


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

mrPPincer said:


> ^Definitely seems logical that as the unprofitable players drop off, and if the major opec players (sans Iran) could agree to a freeze that the overproduction could eventually shrink to a balance.
> I guess it has to at some point or another doesn't it?


yes, sooner than one might expect. previous gluts, eg 1980's apparently had a 20% over supply but this one is just about 1 or 2% oversupplied.


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## spongewen (Nov 26, 2015)

Big oil drop today but TSX is green, interesting.


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## Wormiez (Jan 12, 2015)

Yes, interesting day in the market indeed. The overnight sentiment was panic selling. Now Crude oil futures seems to be re-balancing itself out from last Friday prices..


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

yeah, it was down to 39, now fighting its way back over 40. To me this is a clue that expiring hedges and low rig counts are a significant factor in the minds of oil traders that seems to be keeping the price propped up.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

The market basically yawned at this. Prices ascend slowly as production comes off naturally. Iran reaches full capacity and then agree to freeze production. Then they all agree to cut a little all around with Saudis not taking the full brunt. Market recovers, I sell, companies cheat the agreement.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

1980z28 said:


> Sold all my banks on Wednesday last week
> 
> So sitting in cash,waiting for the 6 to 10% drop in oil plus others in the morning
> 
> will maybe some equities on sale in the morning ,,but will wait a couple 3 days for some buys


Got some enf,enb,cpg, when market opened,will sell today

The market recovered to fast to keep buying,I need to have a better plan,next time


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

1980z28 said:


> Got some enf,enb,cpg, when market opened,will sell today
> 
> The market recovered to fast to keep buying,I need to have a better plan,next time


ENF was on my radar for last week... hoped to buy today on the dip... but you are right., I didn't expect market to recover so fast..


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

Entire market recovered in first 30 minutes, WOW.... was waiting for CNQ dip (-2.7%) and now it went +2%

Guess oil found its bottom


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

jerryhung said:


> Entire market recovered in first 30 minutes, WOW.... was waiting for CNQ dip (-2.7%) and now it went +2%
> 
> Guess oil found its bottom





> Kuwait Crude Output Drops 60% as Oil Workers Strike Over Pay.


 also can be a reason


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

To me this looks like a bull market in oil. Its up 50+% from its lows. Prices barely blinked over the meeting failure. So I'm asking myself why isn't it a bull market? Can't come up with any real reason. It is true that there is still an over supply, but as they say, prices precede fundamentals. Prices go up in anticipation of better fundamentals in a year or so.


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## mreconomic (Apr 13, 2016)

Take a look to Anadarko Petroleum Corp... great potencial to double its price in the next year or so... (if oil recovers and hits the $65 - $70)


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## godblsmnymkr (Jul 15, 2015)

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8bcf9e82-d6e8-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html#axzz46Cmu2Sf8
oil market moving from contango to backwardation. google the article title to have access as google has a backdoor. 

when bad news causes the market to rally the bottom is in.


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

godblsmnymkr said:


> http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8bcf9e82-d6e8-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html#axzz46Cmu2Sf8
> oil market moving from contango to backwardation. google the article title to have access as google has a backdoor.
> 
> when bad news causes the market to rally the bottom is in.


Ya, I don't understand all that contango and backwardation stuff. My question is when does BTE go to the moon like TCK.B is these days. Things seem to be stirring in the resource sector ... hell the whole market seems to be on prozac.

hboy43


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Just a thought: I'm not convinced there is an over supply of oil anymore. If storage is at full capacity, and production is at max, and price is going up, there is no over supply.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-bottomed-producers-capped-rbc-121103797.html


I agree with that article.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Oh so very slowly the bears become bulls. It's interesting to watch. Join the club, there's lots of room here.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Chris L said:


> Oh so very slowly the bears become bulls. It's interesting to watch. Join the club, there's lots of room here.


Precisely. It is wise to be a bull when there aren't any.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Oil jumps 2%. Inventory draw down in US that surprised the analysts. 
If the world is producing at max, and storage is full, and price is going up, there is no oil oversupply. 

Reportedly, the Saudi's believe oil will be worthless in 10 to 15 years so they are going to produce and sell at max capacity to get rid of their oil as soon as possible. Who would have thunk that.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

It will take generations to stop using oil. I'm not worried. Just my $0.02.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
That's what I was thinking; mainstream transformation to another energy source isn't going to happen that fast.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Nope.

I mean, I didn't back up the truck when oil was $30, but I did buy some SU and other O&G stocks months ago and will continue to hold them long-term. 

Instead of loading up O&G stocks in particular, I will likely put more money into infrastructure companies and other energy companies, such as utilities, going forward. People can't live without hydro or water as far as I know.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Pluto said:


> Reportedly, the Saudi's believe oil will be worthless in 10 to 15 years so they are going to produce and sell at max capacity to get rid of their oil as soon as possible. Who would have thunk that.



what could replace jet fuel though. Long distance trucking, can you imagine a refrigerated 16-wheel semi stopping to charge its batteries every few kilometres as it hauls produce from central america to canada?

there are other distillates derived from petroleum with uses that can't be replaced by hydroelectric power or even uranium fuelled reactors.



.


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## Video_Frank (Aug 2, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> what could replace jet fuel though. Long distance trucking, can you imagine a refrigerated 16-wheel semi stopping to charge its batteries every few kilometres as it hauls produce from central america to canada?


I'm sure settlers, sitting on their chuckwagons crossing the country on rutted dirt trails couldn't foresee modern aviation. And so it will be in the future.

"The Stone Age didn’t end for lack of stone."


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

It's already happening 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/airship-zeppelin-straightline-deal-alberta-oilsands-1.3512562


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

for real though, Lockheed Martin has already landed a 480M contract with Straightline Aviation for twelve of it's hybrid airships.

the airship, from LM's site
http://www.lockheedmartin.ca/us/products/HybridAirship.html

In March 2016, Straightline Aviation signed a Letter of intent for 12 airships, valued at $480 million.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/29/lockheed-has-liftoff-sells-new-airships-in-480m-deal.html

And just today on CBC, "How giant blimps could help solve Canada's Indigenous housing crisis
Airships could transport pre-fabricated houses to remote northern communities, Montreal company says"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-blimps-housing-crisis-1.3576706


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

mrPPincer said:


> for real though ... just today on CBC, "How giant blimps could help solve Canada's Indigenous housing crisis
> Airships could transport pre-fabricated houses to remote northern communities, Montreal company says"
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-blimps-housing-crisis-1.3576706




deleting my prior post as the CBC wrong spelling of the principal's name had led to the wrong person.
CBC is incorrectly spelling it Micheal. However, the LTA Aerostructures CEO is a regular plain Michael.

associated with "Micheal Dyment" there is no company, nothing but a twitter account that has been suspended.

but associated with "Michael Dyment" there is a real company, one that hopes to manufacture blimps to hoist large ultra-heavy loads, such as entire pre-built homes, tanks of diesel fuel & heavy duty mining machinery, into the canadian Arctic.

http://www.lta-aerostructures.ca/http://www.lta-aerostructures.ca/ 

i'm still skeptical, though. Management & direction are real people with solid aeronautical experience, but the website remains a bit skimpy. There do not appear to be any investors in this project. All that is stated is a vague "hope" that the federal government will "invest" in the manufacture of blimps.

it's hard to think of any undertaking for the federal government at present that would be more ill-timed than to "invest" in the manufacture of blimps. Surely ottawa has enough on its aviation plate with the proposed rescue of bombardier.


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## mordko (Jan 23, 2016)

What is the general opinion about CCX? It's relatively new... Will it keep up with the Canadian oil index it's supposed to track?


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## godblsmnymkr (Jul 15, 2015)

humble_pie said:


> what could replace jet fuel though. Long distance trucking, can you imagine a refrigerated 16-wheel semi stopping to charge its batteries every few kilometres as it hauls produce from central america to canada?
> 
> there are other distillates derived from petroleum with uses that can't be replaced by hydroelectric power or even uranium fuelled reactors.
> 
> ...


or the fact its the main component of plastic.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

There was an article I read not too long ago (cannot recall the source) that suggested peak demand for oil may be in the order of 108? million barrels of oil per day (sometime in the next 10 years) and then perhaps declining to 57 million barrels per day by some future date such as 2035 or 2050. About the most sensible observation I've seen written for some time. Even by the end of this century, there will be oil demand. It is just a matter of how much. The wingnuts need to get their heads out of their backsides and recognize hydrocarbon resources have an important place in our wellbeing and survival.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Oil up on Goldman: http://seekingalpha.com/news/3183328-goldman-pulls-u-turn-oil-outlook?ifp=0

From over to undersupply.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
Sure looks like it to me. After the short covering in oil, it just kept going up. The main way to explain it was no shortage.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

1300 shares of BTE, 1000 share of MEG, 430 shares of CPG, and 100 CVE. Oil to $65 would be nice.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Going in large Chris!

If you're right, you're golden


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

My Own Advisor said:


> Going in large Chris!
> 
> If you're right, you're golden


Here's hoping


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