# Big day in the RED



## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

Nearly 500 points down and 2 hours to go. 

What a painful day. 

Someone once told when oil was first dropping that there was no worry. He told me to keep an eye on the banks, and when the banks start dropping look out below. 

That is kind of what has happened. 

A few defensive names are holding up but really what does the TSX have now?

Gold has been hurting for awhile now
Oil has been tanking last few months
Now banks are joining the party. I don't think the banks will create a perfect V like they did in October. 

Another week or two until tax loss season stops.


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## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

Disappointing. I just did a periodic rebalancing of my portfolio.
Would have been nice to have bought after a big decline.


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

SheaButters said:


> Nearly 500 points down and 2 hours to go.
> 
> What a painful day.
> 
> ...


Should stabilize soon, cant see oil going below 55-60$.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Same Supperfly but you never know. #Crazyday.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I sold all of my Canadian securities last December for tax reasons and never bought anything to replace it (well besides whatever saving account ETF is). I felt pretty silly midsummer but it almost looks like the entire years gain for 2014 are close to being wiped out so I didn't end up missing out at all. 

I'm glad I went heavy US and international. I wish my investments were doing as well as my kids RESP. That kid is a genius! :0


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Wise choice. 

Most of my gains have gone. 

A different defensive strategy has saved my sons RESP although it is very early days for him anyway.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

It will be interesting to see how this downturn plays out for the rest of the calendar year, meaning, will it go lower? 

I wonder if this will change the 2014 predictions contest! It will be interesting to see who had the TSX around 14,000 AND oil around $65. I certainly didn't...


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

I think we already have a thread for this very topic....

Was it just me that got smoked in the market today?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

As far as oil goes, the odds are its going to take considerable time to consolidate a year or two? Apparently US exploration permits for next year are down 40% from current levels and it will take time for the over production to dissipate....But then again, who the heck knows? OPEC might pull itself together, and get support from non opec nations for production cuts.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

What ever you think the bottom is,it is probable much worst(oil)

KOL Quote


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Just creating more buying opportunities IMO, I'll continue to pick up some morsels as it falls.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I remember all the news articles this year said the tsx will out perform the s&p 500


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

cainvest said:


> Just creating more buying opportunities IMO, I'll continue to pick up some morsels as it falls.


I agree. I'm am quite surprised at the overall negativity on the board.
I thought we were all waiting for this correction.
Sure its a big drop but bigger drops = quicker rebounds.

I'm just buying half lots and picking up the second half in another week or so.


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## DmDave (Dec 1, 2014)

I'm hoping it'll drop further, preferably >10% so I can buy some ETF's on sales. I missed out on the last 10% correction mid-October because I didn't have cash.


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## Gabs (May 7, 2014)

Pretty excited also, most of my money is on the sidelines hoping for more big days in red in future.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

supperfly17 said:


> Should stabilize soon, cant see oil going below 55-60$.



I think the powers that be with deflation @ their backs will still want to manipulate the price of oil lower to put pressure on Russia & the Brics to not trade oil in none dominated US dollars. The markets have the power & will win in the long run.


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## namelessone (Sep 28, 2012)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-divested-from-the-oil-sands/article21987623/

I avoid direct commodity exposure, e.g. oil, natural gas, gold, silver, copper, iron,coal, etc.. The problem with commodity is the price is too unpredictable. You bought at low price thinking it's a good deal then it went a lot lower and stagnant for years.. I think if an investment doesn't go anywhere in 1 to 2 years is a bad investment. For me, time is the most valuable non renewable resources. if one waited for a few years and a stock went nowhere. That's a few years wasted.
I learned this lesson during 2008 recession.My lesson in 2008 was TSE:S. I bought at $8.64 thinking it's a good deal. It went lower and lower. In 2010, I admitted my mistake and sold at a loss at $5.66. Now in 2014, it's at a pathetic $2.34. 
Since then, I tried very hard to avoid commodities. Sometimes, it's very tempting but I resisted. Now I think I got it. i got rid of all commodity stocks in 2011 to 2012 and focus on high quality companies with strong comparative advantage.(Stable, growing earnings) Since then my return is relatively predictable and satisfactory. 2012: 11.5%, 2013: 40%. Despite a huge drop in my portfolio today, I am still up 24% in 2014. 


.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

Yes the only thing up in my portfolio today was Goog. But I'm OK with that- I have stop losses in place that I increase incrementally as share prices go up, and nearly everything I have is up significantly from purchase price. I know there are those who argue against using stops, but I like the peace of mind knowing that I won't wake up some morning to a 25% crash in my net worth. I don't have time during trading hours to do anything so stops work well for my needs. If the bulls stop running, I'm fine with that- I'd actually prefer it at this point. I'm planning to pull a lot out for a downpayment pretty soon, so the timing would be perfect; I'd hate to watch the markets keep climbing while thinking of all the capital gains my downpayment could have been making...


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## JordoR (Aug 20, 2013)

Yeah it's tough taking the hit, but I'm young and have a very long term investment schedule - so I'm definitely seeing this as a buying opportunity. Oil will come around eventually.


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## dotnet_nerd (Jul 1, 2009)

JordoR said:


> ...I'm definitely seeing this as a buying opportunity. Oil will come around eventually.


Yup. The best cure for low prices is low prices.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

grip firmly vos chapeaux...


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

This is the main reason I never look at my holdings...

That being said, I look for indicators, like how many posts there are about fear of the market...

When the news picks up the topic daily, then it's time to start looking.

We may be getting close.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

It's all part of the game, a little red is normal and supposedly what "they" call "healthy" for the markets. I have no problem keeping a close eye on my accounts, holdings, etc. It's the only way I'd be able to make informed decisions about things like tax loss selling, taking profits, adjusting allocations, etc. And it's kinda fun to learn, watch, etc.


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## DmDave (Dec 1, 2014)

Looks like the red turned into green in the afternoon rebound. Sucks for those who decided to jump out of the market thinking things will only get worse.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

A single datapoint is not a trend.


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

DmDave said:


> Looks like the red turned into green in the afternoon rebound. Sucks for those who decided to jump out of the market thinking things will only get worse.


Lol yes, its only 1 day Dave man.


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

BARELY green, haha
we just need a few more days like this....

I'm thinking January will be a great month for the TSX

But yes, just sit and wait

Buy the banks and other blue chips yielding 4%
even if they stay even, better than a HISA

I feel like just hitting fast forward and looking at my money in 10 years!


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## Barwelle (Feb 23, 2011)

SheaButters said:


> I'm thinking January will be a great month for the TSX


One might think that Jan/Feb should be good months... people have new room in their registered accounts, and can stuff money in their RRSPs before the deadline to make previous-year contributions.

Looking at the history of the S&P TSX on Google finance, it's sort of true... several years it goes up in those two months, and some even have a peak right around the end of Feb, dropping in Mar or Apr. 

Not every year though. It probably isn't a big factor. I'm completely pulling this out of my butt.


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

Not that my portfolio has done all that well this year, but I am thanking my lucky stars that ~90% of my assets are in the US. The TSX venture exchange hit its lowest point EVER yesterday - Canada is a really, really bad market to be in right now, and I think it will be for some time due to the commodity supercycle winding down. I have no sense of the oil price and where it should be, but I know we've seen the peak of demand growth for most metals for quite a few years.

The Canadian economy in a nutshell:
Miners
Oil
Real estate
Banks who finance the above 3 activities

It's a bit scary to be honest. I'm all for buying when prices decline, but I'm more comfortable doing that when a company sells differentiated widgets with a built-in margin as opposed to a commodity whose pricing is determined by the global macro winds.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

You would be doing a lot better if you held the 10 sectors of the TSX in equal weight, not market cap. I bet you that the 2 minute portfolio isn't doing that bad.


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## DmDave (Dec 1, 2014)

Right, a single day isn't a trend, but at the same time, people are bemoaning how much red they see and jumping in and out of stock because of emotions shouldn't really be investing at all. Woke up with paper loss that's worth 4 days' worth of salary, by closing I'm back to green. Just funny how someone couldn't stomach the volatility the last few weeks dished out.

The trend I'm betting on is the continuous upward march of the stock market, with a few occasional hiccups and diarrhea.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

I hope prices drop through the month so all my drips at month end are bought in at a nice low price. Plus January 1st I will put another $65k into RRSPs, TFSA and RESP and would love to deploy that at lower prices.


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## DmDave (Dec 1, 2014)

Down down down it goes. Let's have a 10-20% off sales soon, my LOC at prime is there for a reason.


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## banjopete (Feb 4, 2014)

DmDave said:


> Down down down it goes. Let's have a 10-20% off sales soon, my LOC at prime is there for a reason.


but, but, but yesterday you said it was the bottom?


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## DmDave (Dec 1, 2014)

banjopete said:


> but, but, but yesterday you said it was the bottom?


When did I said it was the bottom, I was merely pointing out the folly of people jumping in and out of stocks.


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## banjopete (Feb 4, 2014)

DmDave said:


> When did I said it was the bottom, I was merely pointing out the folly of people jumping in and out of stocks.


My apologies, I should have included a smiley face to let you know I was merely poking at you. A little lightness in these dour times.


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

we have a minimum 1 week to go, but more realistically we could be down for 3-6 months :-(
that's my guess

Jan might see some new TFSA money enter...
but TSX is mostly commodities, so we in da pits!


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## DmDave (Dec 1, 2014)

banjopete said:


> My apologies, I should have included a smiley face to let you know I was merely poking at you. A little lightness in these dour times.


That's cool brah. Although I do wish I have the power of foresight.


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## DmDave (Dec 1, 2014)

SheaButters said:


> we have a minimum 1 week to go, but more realistically we could be down for 3-6 months :-(
> that's my guess
> 
> Jan might see some new TFSA money enter...
> but TSX is mostly commodities, so we in da pits!


That's why diversification is for the win. My US portion has been good to me these last few years. Not so for my CAD portion, no gain at all this whole year. But if this continues to go lower, it'll be a fire sales. The world needs oil, people still need to bank.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Another good hit today, added to my oil position.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Forgot about this general section ..... where's the TSX PPT .......... plunge protection team ..... I remember now not liking this part of trading


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

And when Santa RALLY starts :biggrin::apathy::rugby:


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## celishave (May 8, 2010)

Like everyone else I got my *** handed to me. 350 point loss is approximately 6 weeks after tax salary for me. OH well it is what it is and the cost of playing the game. I moved to 40% bonds in the last few years from basically zero so I'm thankful for that. 95% of my equities are unfortunately Canadian based as I could never really understand the US recovery - where exactly are those jobs coming from? Manufacturing - doesn't seem like it. I also thought the TSX didn't appreciate as much as it should with $100+ oil, banks with record earnings, strong GDP until recently, etc. It wasn't even able to reach an all time high with all of that good news. Thankfully I have a large portion of my Cdn portfolio in utilities and REIT's which whether the storm abit.

Some of these moves are just insane though. Oil down 3% in the day and the mid-size oil companies will drop closer to 10%. The big $ is leaving Canada in droves, but it can come back just as quick. I believe oil is close to a bottom, but who knows. Seems like OPEC is doing everything it can to tank the price, even releasing a report today about slowing demand when. Why exactly would they do that? I suppose the theory is to shut down a whole bunch of US production....but even if that is accomplished, once the price rises will that production not simply come back on board?


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## Westerncanada (Nov 11, 2013)

I'm shocked to read about all the negativity around the market correction of the TSX.. 12% down from the high and it's a code red? I can understand if you are retiring in the next 2-5 years it would be concerning, but for the majority that are somewhere in between this is such a minor blip in the radar i'm shocked at how many are negative. 

If it keeps going down obviously this would open up some great buying opportunities for everyone, but far from a crisis just yet. 

Good Luck Everyone


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## celishave (May 8, 2010)

Westerncanada said:


> I'm shocked to read about all the negativity around the market correction of the TSX.. 12% down from the high and it's a code red? I can understand if you are retiring in the next 2-5 years it would be concerning, but for the majority that are somewhere in between this is such a minor blip in the radar i'm shocked at how many are negative.
> 
> If it keeps going down obviously this would open up some great buying opportunities for everyone, but far from a crisis just yet.
> 
> Good Luck Everyone


I think it's more so the volatility of the move down - it was a nice smooth ride up, whereas on the downside it's 3 or 4% drops in one day. Especially unnerving when the price of oil seems to have no stability. 40% drop in crude in six months is incredible and if one believes the US shale drillers are profitable at these levels, then how far down could we go? 

I do find it funny that the talking heads are NOW stating that one should invest in US equities versus Canadian. Really? Now is the time for that? I would think now is the time to invest in some of these oil stocks that have tanked 30 to 40%, not in Dow or S&P which are at all time highs.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

A lot of the small oil companies are debt laden and if they have to shut down, they would have a very difficult time finding anyone to lend them money to resume activity in the future.

Who would lend them money to restart operations.............if the Saudis could just do it again.

The Saudis did it this time.........would they do it again, when would they do it again, under what circumstances would they do it again.

The world of big oil..............where billions are being spent in anticipation of future profits..............doesn't like uncertainty.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Westerncanada said:


> I'm shocked to read about all the negativity around the market correction of the TSX.. 12% down from the high and it's a code red? I can understand if you are retiring in the next 2-5 years it would be concerning, but for the majority that are somewhere in between this is such a minor blip in the radar i'm shocked at how many are negative.
> 
> If it keeps going down obviously this would open up some great buying opportunities for everyone, but far from a crisis just yet.
> 
> Good Luck Everyone


You neglect to mention those of us who are retired and living on a combination of dividend income and *withdrawals*. 

I've been investing seriously since 1982 so have been through several major setbacks and "survived" many corrections. I agree with you that this isn't anything unexpected and unplanned for, and "might" (don't like crystal balling) represent a buying opportunity for those with a longer horizon.


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## Westerncanada (Nov 11, 2013)

Rbull


First off.. congratulations to living off the dividend income + withdrawals.. that is fantastic andnim happy to hear that. 

Agree that this may impact the cash flow payout on those living off dividends.. on the flip side, if you are DRip'ing any of these it would be a nice increase in your units for down the road! 

Do you have many equities that lowered their dividend? I havent seen this yet outside of a fewof the oil folks


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Zoom out to the big, multi-decade picture. The TSX is still virtually at a historical, all-time high. It's higher than the 2000 peak and about the same as the 2007-2008 peak.

What I'm saying is that the TSX hasn't even fallen, it's way, way up there. You could comfortably sell stocks today and you would be selling at all-time highs. If you're feeling pain from stock losses today, *you are over-exposed to stocks* and your pain indicates that just a tiny drop in stocks causes uncomfortably large losses.

Some stats:
* TSX is 85% higher than its 2009 low! Factor in dividends and we are up 106%, *more than double* the 2009 low.
* TSX is just 7% lower than its 2008 peak. Factor in dividends and we're higher today than the 2008 peak.

If you buy today, you are not buying at a discount, you're still buying at all-time highs.


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## martinv (Apr 30, 2009)

Maybe it is just me but this has been a quicker, nastier hit to my portfolio than 2008.
Quote;"You could comfortably sell stocks today and you would be selling at all-time highs." Oh how I wish some of my stocks were at all time highs.
Down 30% in 5 months is a real correction for me no matter how the rest of the world describes it.
But, as before and before that, I will ride it out and hope for better days ahead.

One other thought, "no mention of Peak Oil these days"! Guess we are not running out after all.
The predictors never seem to get it right.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Westerncanada said:


> Rbull
> 
> 
> First off.. congratulations to living off the dividend income + withdrawals.. that is fantastic andnim happy to hear that.
> ...


Thank you.

I'm an ETF indexer so don't pay any attention to that. Can't drip what I have either. Have 4 small stock positions (not energy) that I consider more play money, but mostly I just let my stuff do it's thing, and sleep ok at night.


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## namelessone (Sep 28, 2012)

Retired people should have large allocation in short term bonds unless the invested asset size is so large that the withdrawal rate is negligible.


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