# Waiting to jump in - advice pls



## Diego (May 14, 2011)

Hi everyone,

Been reading the board for a few months, this is my first post. A little background:

Age: Mid-30s
Family Income: +$120K
Mortgage: $240K
Other Debts: $0 (no credit card balances, no liens on cars)
Equity in condo: $70K (at current market value)
Cash on hand: $55K (excludes below)
Wife's RRSP: $5,000 in conservative portfolio; TFSA: $10K in cash
My RRSP: $0; TFSA: $15K in cash, *waiting to jump in*

My wife and I live well within our means, and we each save $1K per month, after all expenses ($2K in total)

I've been holding the $15K in cash in my trading account, and waiting for the recent correction. I plan to go with a couch potato portfolio of low-MER ETFs. Once invested, I intend to top it up and rebalance with the annual contribution each year.

So, my question is, should I go in now, wait until October, or wait until the end of the year? I can go in with $20K at the end of the year. Note, this is not my emergency fund. I keep that separate in cash (see above).

Everything I've read here and elsewhere suggests that there's more downside to come, because the long-term macro factors don't bode well (Eurozone debt, US debt, unemployment, even the Canadian housing bubble)

I realize that no one has a crystal ball, but I'm looking for informed opinions. Thanks to everyone for your advice/thoughts.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Why are you looking for one entry point. Get your select investments sorted out and make 3-4 monthly buys at a little lower price each time (dollar cost Avg.).


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

We've had a significant correction. At the bare minimum - put at least 1/3 in the market now.

I understand how hard it is to put a big chunk of cash into the markets - I'm in the process of doing it now. But don't think you can figure out the very bottom and then buy in 100%.


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Yeah I don't really know Diego. Tough call. I think it takes a lot of guts to jump in when the sky is falling, as seems to be happening this week. All any of us can really offer is speculation and opinion, ultimately you have to decide on your comfort level as to when you would want to jump in.

My opinion is not to rush. Don't do anything this week.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

I have had a large cash position after selling the last mutual funds I will ever own. Have made some signifant purchases in the last two weeks, almost all ETFs. I still have a lot of cash and if the markets really tank today I will be buying more. 

I am thinking long term and so should you.


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## Plugging Along (Jan 3, 2011)

My thoughts is the only time you really know when the bottom has hit is after the fact. There's been a big drop recently so it's not a bad time to jump in. If this is long term, even if it drops some more, it will go back up eventually. 

How I view it, as yes, I may have bought in cheaper, and made a little bit more money, but I could have also missed it the bottom, and am making less money now. Either way the outcome is the same, and the probability is about the same. If you want, the average it throughout a few transactions and dont sweet it. 

I just jumped in with some buys last Thursday, those equities are lower now. I don't like it, but I'm trying to come up with some more cash and will buy some more this week. In a year from now, it won't matter.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I can't bring myself to buy into this market... Not even 25% of my cash. I can't see how the market could be higher by the end of the week. I guess gov't intervention could stop the bleeding...or could it?


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

never go all in at once, slow and nice entries


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Jon_Snow said:


> I can't bring myself to buy into this market... Not even 25% of my cash. I can't see how the market could be higher by the end of the week.


Jon Snow, I think it is safe to say on this forum that you aren't ever going to venture into equities, regardless of how low the market falls 

Kind of like a friend of mine who is forever dating nice girls but each time bids goodnight at their doorsteps


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## Assetologist (Apr 19, 2009)

blin10 said:


> never go all in at once, slow and nice entries


+1 
Small buys so that you build your positions over time.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I have no problem admitting that my chicken**** factor is off the charts.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

it's so hard to resist to buy more, but need to stick to the plan...


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Jon_Snow said:


> I can't bring myself to buy into this market... Not even 25% of my cash. I can't see how the market could be higher by the end of the week. I guess gov't intervention could stop the bleeding...or could it?


I agree with Harold - if you have been waiting for a correction, it's arrived

Who cares what happens to your investments for the rest of the week? Are you retiring this Saturday?

I insist that you put at least 10% into the market today.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Well, if you insist...


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

^ lol

The panic factor seems pretty high, so I don't blame people for waiting for better deals.


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## Calgary_Girl (Apr 20, 2011)

Jon_Snow said:


> I have no problem admitting that my chicken**** factor is off the charts.


Sometimes I wish I had this problem (or maybe my husband wishes that I was chicken ****). I've just taken half of our emergency fund money and invested it and I'm VERY tempted to take the rest of it and do some more "shopping" at these prices.

So, did you wind up pulling the trigger and buy anything?


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

On some days I think that the ONLY buyers in the markets must be some of those who participate in this forum!!!


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

jon we do insist.

she went into the water & she got her feet all wet
she went into the water & she got her feet all wet
she went into the water & she got her feet all wet
but she didn't get it wet
yet.

sorry i don't click on embedded links.
is there something there you are dying to show us ?


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Belguy said:


> On some days I think that the ONLY buyers in the markets must be some of those who participate in this forum!!!


Obviously, buyers always are in equal number to sellers. Shares don't appear from and disappear into the ether. It might seem that way, though.


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

Great point andrewF and something people often forget.

It is just a question of who is more anxious, the buyer or seller that results in days like today.


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## atrp2biz (Sep 22, 2010)

I'm dying to jump in now--trying to convince DW. Lots of cash on the sidelines.

Wish list on our side:
TD
FTS
SU


South of the 49:
DE
BRK
WFC


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I bought FTS and TD today ,Paid $72 for TD and $29 for FTS


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Calgary_Girl said:


> I've just taken half of our emergency fund money and invested it and I'm VERY tempted to take the rest of it and do some more "shopping" at these prices.


Hmmm how do I respond "delicately" to this?


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

There is reason why they call it emergency fund ...


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## Calgary_Girl (Apr 20, 2011)

As long as I sleep well at night, I'm okay with it.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

If you have no consumer debt, I see no harm in using your cash on hand to invest when asset prices fall.


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## Diego (May 14, 2011)

Wow, that's a lot of responses in one day! Thanks to everyone for your advice. After reading your posts, here's where I stand:

Don't go all in at once. I have $15K, so I'll put 5 in and wait a few months before putting 5 more (dollar cost averaging). I can do this 4 times by Jan 2012, or take longer, if I want to.

Don't use emergency funds - I never intended to - that's a much larger sum, safely tucked away in a savings account, earning next to nothing and letting me sleep like a baby.

So now I have a new problem: Someone asked why I wanted to go all in at once. The reason is, if I'm buying a basket of 4 to 5 ETFs, I'm trying to minimize the commissions paid.

If, on the other hand, I want to go in a little at a time, then I'm better off with the TD e-series funds. Either that, or I buy only 1 ETF at a time.

As I mentioned, I plan on a couch potato portfolio. One Canadian Equity, one US Equity, one Global Equity, one Canadian bond, one International bond.

So, if I'm buying one fund at a time, do I go Equity/Bond/Equity/Bond/Equity?

Thanks again for all your responses


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## Plugging Along (Jan 3, 2011)

JON: Just curious, did you jump in, or at least dip your toe in.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

I've stated often I'm not the etf guy. In this market "likely to get worst than better threw Jan". DCA will make up for fees by lower your cost/share.

My plan runs till Jan. I will be making adjustments on amounts and timing my purchase for bloodbath days. And I can stop anytime the market perks up.

This is when the markets are fun/scary and profitable.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Plugging Along said:


> JON: Just curious, did you jump in, or at least dip your toe in.


I'm investing 25% of my cash tonight just in case we have reached the bottom of this wacky market.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Does anyone want to suggest how low the tsx will go before the end of 2011 (we often try to predict the year's high..but what about the low that could be reached?)


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

^ there is already a thread about that started by kcowan in Jan.
He usually updates it monthly.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Thanks...I wondered whether there was a thread for this prediction


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