# Canfor Pulp Product (CFX)



## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

This stock has caught my eye for the yield and on delving into the fundamentals things don't seem to look too bad at all. 

I see it converted from a trust into a dividend paying corporation and as a result halved it's payout. It is still yielding 9% and can comfortably afford to pay this. 

Does anyone hold?
What are peoples thoughts on this one?


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## alexei (Jul 2, 2012)

Resurrecting this thread. Any ideas? RBC has cut the forecast for the company.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

I recently sold out of CFX as I felt it was dead money for the time being.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Unfortunately there are too many pulp and paper mills in North America. CFX has no advantage over anyone, and the stock price is dropping faster than the dividend payout.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

The US housing market will eventually recover but for people to buy homes they need secure jobs before they stick their necks out for a mortgage. Many of the banks have also had issues with ensuring they are properly capitalized to weather another recession and this has made them reluctant to lend to people. With the US government now about to impose some austerity due to "fiscal cliff" issues and inability for Dems and Reps to decide on where to cut spending and/or raise taxes there is great deal of uncertainty in the air.

I expect there to be closures, bankruptcies or mergers in this type of environment with those firms with the best balance sheet and lowest costs of production winning out as is usually the case.

So in this space I would invest in the financially strongest company even if they are a bit relatively overvalued compared to their brethren on a P/B or P/S basis. You have to be careful about not putting too much emphasis on earnings in a depressed market - you do want a company that isn't undergoing rapid cash burn, though.

The other thing that is confusing is that US and Cdn lumber firms have a different relationships in terms of land holdings that complicates things - this has led to lots of export tariffs on Canadian softwoods and whenever the American lumber firms are unhappy about things they point the finger at unfair subsidies to Canadian lumber companies and then we have another NAFTA dispute to go through.

I can't say that I like the play but I'm sure most people feel the same way and that usually makes for a good investment if you have the patience and the stomach for it.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Would be a decent short if you didn't have to pay the dividend. Anything to do with paper and the like is based on a shrinking industry, and that's not where I want to be.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Down 17% today, terrible stock. Income down 93% in this quarter, what a laugh. Hope no one bought.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

Argonaut said:


> Down 17% today, terrible stock. Income down 93% in this quarter, what a laugh. Hope no one bought.


Canfor pulp is bad but the Canfor OSB side is rocking (CFP). OSB prices are thru the roof and Q2 results out tomorrow.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

this is interesting. Are all OSB stocks flying ?

it has crossed my mind that intertape polymer ITP which the lately-banned & dearly-lamented lucie da bomba pompa used to promote has been flying so high because it manufactures a duct tape or other proprietary tape that's used in building construction.

along the same vein others have noted that US building & housing construction etfs are all doing myteriously well although there's no upturn yet in housing starts or US housing prices themselves ...

oh oh if stock prices are accurate forecasters these are saying there'll be no prolonged recession ...


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

humble_pie said:


> this is interesting. Are all OSB stocks flying ?
> 
> it has crossed my mind that intertape polymer ITP which the lately-banned & dearly-lamented lucie da bomba pompa used to promote has been flying so high because it manufactures a duct tape or other proprietary tape that's used in building construction.
> 
> ...


heres a good article for today but i havent verified everything on it. I'm heavily into ANS which is a OSB producer for Japan and their results are coming out next week that i am looking forward too.

_July 26 (Reuters) - Canadian wood panels maker Norbord Inc's second-quarter profit rose six-fold on a U.S. housing market recovery and improved prices for oriented strand board.

Groundbreaking on new U.S. homes rose in June to its fastest pace in over three years, lending a helping hand to an economy that has shown worrisome signs of cooling.

"We are finally seeing a more sustainable U.S. housing market recovery and this is flowing through to our bottom line," Norbord's Chief Executive Barrie Shineton said in a statement.

Norbord's rival Tembec Inc is due to report results later in the day.

Oriented strand board (OSB), similar to plywood but cheaper, is commonly used to sheath roofs, walls and floors.

North Central benchmark OSB prices rose 36 percent to average $235 per thousand square feet in the quarter from the year-ago period.

Norbord's April-June profit rose to $6 million, or 14 cents per share, from $1 million, or 3 cents per share, a year earlier.

Sales rose 13 percent to $272 million.

The company's shares, which have risen more than 70 percent so far in 2012, closed at C$13.97 on Wednesday on the Toronto Stock Exchange._


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

Argonaut said:


> Would be a decent short if you didn't have to pay the dividend. Anything to do with paper and the like is based on a shrinking industry, and that's not where I want to be.


Not sure why I stayed clear of it at the time but glad I did. I think it was more to do with a complete lack of understanding on the industry.


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