# TO realestate prices.....



## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Last week some interesting figures came out covering 1st half of July. Prices down considerably from the April all time high. 

Garth Turner is having an orgasam. From his blog,

"In terms of price, the GTA average is $760,356. In April it was $919,589. That’s a fade of more than $159,000, or 17.31%. The declines have been historic: down 6.2% in May, another 8.1% in June, and 4.2% in just the first two weeks of July. In the last 15 days alone the average house shed $34,000, or enough to buy eight or nine used Kias."

LOL. 

If I recall right around '89 or 90 TO prices peaked and fell 20% within a couple of years. here we have 17% in a few months. I wonder if this will become the mother of all TO RE crashes.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Ouch............A house quickly becomes an anchor when it is losing money.


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## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

Impressive if true. Metro Vancouver next, please.


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

Short term price fluctuations are different from a trend, not that I don't think a major correction is due, but there is a difference. What are the volume numbers associated with these numbers? 

Maybe it's just a bunch of low end housing changing hands, maybe a few big deals didn't go through, lots of explainations which don't signal a crash...

When the numbers get this high, $34k is nothing, it's a negotiation amount. It's not the same as $34k off a 100k house, it's $34k off a $750k-$1M house. People in the first buy kias, not usually in he second, but that doesn't make a good sound byte does it? 

Let's see how the yearly average goes...if you look short term enough, say right after a lot selling for $100k, you could say that the "average selling price has dropped 90% overnight!". Markets fluctuations happen all the time.


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## the_apprentice (Jan 31, 2013)

I see several price changes while browsing online for homes in the GTA. No doubt the market is in decline, however many are saying this could be a temporary dip similar to what happened in Vancouver. Will continue to watch as always...


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## DollaWine (Aug 4, 2015)

Don't forget to consider that some statics for average sales price include ALL types of homes, including condos and townhouses which are cheaper than detached. In some cases, it's just more condos/townhouses selling, which brings down the whole average for ALL sales. Doesn't necessarily mean they're getting much cheaper. The market seems frozen right now... stalemate. Sellers waiting for prices to go up, buyers waiting for them to come down. 

The longer this goes on, the less I'm interested in buying a house... *rolls eyes*


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

good point: too early to say it is a trend. As to volume Turner wrote,

"The Toronto market continues to collapse. The latest stats build on the numbers this blog gave you a few days ago. Fugly. Bigly. Overall sales were down 39% in the first two weeks of July, with a 45% crumble in deals for detached houses. Semis dropped 43% and condos 35%. Listings are starting to shrink as owners understand the market’s turning toxic and gamble that conditions will be better in the autumn. They won’t be."


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

I have a small detached in east gta I'll be listing next month. I'll you know how it goes.


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

This correction is long overdue and I hope it's a deep one. I don't understand how record household debt doesn't start to become a problem when your collateral is falling in value.

Think of anyone who bought a house in March/April this year. Down $150,000 in the blink of an eye, and for investors the places are usually negative cash flowing to boot. Doesn't this create forced sellers?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

$150,000 loss ?............pffft it is only money..........their parents money.


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## tavogl (Oct 1, 2014)

Markets seem very independent from each other. Vancouver is still going up 2.4% a month for the condo market. We shall see.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Garth Turner wrote today that TO real estate continues to plunge. Down 25% in three months. Ouch. 

"The median (not average) sale price in July was $960,000, compared with $1.275 million in April. That makes the 90-day decline a stunning 24.7%. By way of comparison it took a couple of years for real estate to lose 31% of its value during the last real estate crash in the early 1990s (and then 14 years to recover). Another month of this ugliness, and we will have a record on our hands – the quickest unwinding of a housing market in Canadian history. Maybe human history."


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

We seen a town home in Toronto (online) yesterday and our agent sent us the comps for past 6 months.An identical unit sold for $112,000 more just 3 months ago so from my point it looks like a sale going on right now


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

From the evidence it sounds like a "soft landing" was somewhat optimistic.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

*Toronto real estate price moves*

Toronto home sales dropped 40% vs a year ago, but the average GTA price is up 5% from a year ago.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-home-sales-july-1.4233295

Am I reading this article correctly? It seems to be saying that the average GTA home price is down 19% since April. Here's what I see from this article:

2016 July: 710 K
2017 April: 921 K
2017 July: 746 K

Those are pretty crazy price moves. +30% increase between the first two dates, then -19% between the second two. Could this just be an effect of the tax and policy changes?


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## the_apprentice (Jan 31, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Those are pretty crazy price moves. +30% increase between the first two dates, then -19% between the second two. Could this just be an effect of the tax and policy changes?


Surprisingly, that seems to be a big part of the reason. Most people are away for the Summer and it does tend to be a slow period for sales on top of that. I've heard many individuals compare Toronto to Vancouver in the sense that prices will slow down and pick back up in 8 months.

I sold an investment property in April in fear of prices rising too rapidly...


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

As prices continue to fall, more home owners get trapped with insufficient equity in their homes for their mortgage or HELOC debts.

It the price slide doesn't halt soon, it is going to be very ugly for some people.


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## Kuznec (Jul 27, 2017)

james4beach said:


> Toronto home sales dropped 40% vs a year ago, but the average GTA price is up 5% from a year ago.
> 
> Am I reading this article correctly? It seems to be saying that the average GTA home price is down 19% since April. Here's what I see from this article:
> 
> ...


What changes in taxes do you mean?


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## awesomeame (Nov 15, 2011)

I'm in South Etobicoke...detached homes are up for sale all over. Pick a street, you'll see signs. People with detached houses are trying to get out while they can, but the market is slipping with interest rates on the rise-they missed their chance. Condos don't seem to be going down though, they're up. Not a single unit for sale in my building. I think a big shift is happening..ppl want the life they grew up in, but are [finally] realizing that that life isn't affordable. No house and white picket fence these days...elevator and smaller spaces are where it's at thanks to realtors and ppl too dumb to resist buying crap. Realtors are definitely manipulating the market. Here, let me shuffle these papers a bit and give me 4.25%...what a crock. OMG makes me so angry

Matt


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Kuznec said:


> What changes in taxes do you mean?


In April, Ontario added a new 15% tax on foreign buyers which is applied to any deals made after April 20, 2017. More info here.

Perhaps there was a flood of buying pressure ahead of the tax, which might explain that April price peak at 921 K as people pulled their buying activity earlier in time. That creates a quiet period after the tax date, so maybe that partially explains the 19% price drop off after.

And perhaps the prices will still keep marching higher. From this point, a 24% price increase will be necessary to achieve a new all time GTA home price high.

Asset bubbles require new highs.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^ Acturall it would require > 32.8% increase for a new high.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

House prices have continued to decline. It has now become a collapse.

The average home in Toronto has now declined by $380,000 for a loss of 30% since April.


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## lightcycle (Mar 24, 2012)

sags said:


> The average home in Toronto has now declined by $380,000 for a loss of 30% since April.


News says $173,000.

30% decline (or 40% from reports) are the number of sales, not the $ amount.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The $380,000 is for single detached homes. Sale prices for all types of homes in Toronto have fallen $174,000.

_There are a number of factors being pointed to in explaining Toronto’s real estate shift, which saw the average cost of home (across all property types) drop from $920,791 in April to $746,218 in July – a $174,573 plunge_

In any event, whatever the real numbers are falling prices have led to problems with financing and defaults on sales.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/non-bu...ated-as-home-buyers-tack-on-demands-1.3541706


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
Yes, according to 
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/08/11/under-water-in-to/
prices for detached are down over 29% or 380000 for a detached house in TO.
This is clearly a crash.


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## mikep (Mar 13, 2017)

Pluto said:


> ^
> Yes, according to
> http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/08/11/under-water-in-to/
> prices for detached are down over 29% or 380000 for a detached house in TO.
> This is clearly a crash.



Have we seen a negative year over year gain yet? No. 
It's not a crash when it goes up 30% from Jan-April and has now come back to January pricing. 
Makes no difference to anyone who has purchased early this year or late last year. 
I'm heavily invested in RE and have been since 2013. 
When I started I was counting on 4% year over year gains. 
If my market stays still for 8-9 years at today's prices I'll still be on track for that gain. 

Garth makes lots of sense but unfortunately the fundamentals have detached themselves from RE and nothing makes sense anymore.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
I'm glad you are doing fine. The definition of crash is obviously subjective, and so there is room to redefine the word to suit.


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## spinningtop (Aug 15, 2017)

We have a detached house in Toronto. We bought it in August 2007 using the exchange rate from my British savings 2.14 CAD. It was not long after I realized we were never going to afford a house in London. 

While people are getting awfully excited that TO's RE is crashing, remember most homeowners in TO, like us didn't buy in the last year or two. We have equity in our home, we don't have debt and we bought this house to stay in it until we're too old to upkeep it. In our 30's still, so I think that will be awhile. Prices have increased too rapidly, but it's nothing to get too excited about. If RE literally collapsed, your economic well being in terms or employment are also at risk. I'm less worried about my house value (we're not planning on leaving anyway) but I am worried for TO's economy.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Real estate has become an overly large component of our economy. Oil sucks, auto is slowing down and if real estate crumbles we are in real trouble.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Just a Guy said:


> Short term price fluctuations are different from a trend, not that I don't think a major correction is due, but there is a difference. What are the volume numbers associated with these numbers?
> 
> Maybe it's just a bunch of low end housing changing hands, maybe a few big deals didn't go through, lots of explainations which don't signal a crash...
> 
> ...


I'm with JAG. Unless we see prices go down >20%, it's nothing to get excited about. Seeing prices climb 10% or 20% per year for many years, only to have a small correction is largely no news.

When it comes to Garth, and any predictions, if you wait long enough you'll eventually be right to some degree. 

For context, $34K / $919K = is not even 4%. The stock market can move +/- 1% or more in a day, let alone 15 days and few people blink. 

A significant correction is long overdue and I'm looking forward to another interest rate hike to cool things even more. People will be selling more to try and "get out". 

I don't want the economy to do poorly at all, I just wish there would be some return to "normal" so people get a better sense that the RE market cannot keep going up and up without consequences. 

"Oil sucks, auto is slowing down and if real estate crumbles we are in real trouble."

If we do get a RE correction, let alone a crash, I think many people in over their heads are in big trouble.....


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## Dmoney (Apr 28, 2011)

Anecdotally, having just gone through the process of selling my place, here's my take:

The first signs I saw of absolute insanity were at the tail end of last year's spring selling season. Saw a few houses sell for ~15-20% higher than similar houses just weeks before as people were scared of not getting into the market.

It looked like in the beginning of this year's spring selling season the market carried on from where it left off last year. Peak insanity was really late March/early April, in advance of the Ontario budget. Saw houses transact at *40-50% more* than similar houses in the 2016 spring season. 

That's when I decided to list my place. I missed the boat by a few weeks, but still sold ~15% higher than the crazy 2016 spring season.

So, my take is, yes, we absolutely have crashed from the 2017 peak, to the tune of probably ~20%.
That being said, the 2017 peak was absolutely bonkers! 
In my old area, I would say we are probably back to spring 2016 pricing at the moment, maybe still a little higher.

Not sure where the market is going, but it got way too rich for my liking.


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## lightcycle (Mar 24, 2012)

spinningtop said:


> most homeowners in TO, like us didn't buy in the last year or two. We have equity in our home, we don't have debt and we bought this house to stay in it until we're too old to upkeep it.


While that may be true, there are other segments of homeowners other than those who bought at the top.

There is a large aging population that may soon be forced to move into assisted living/smaller homes, watching their retirement nest egg dwindle away. Also, those who took advantage of low interest rates and huge increases in home equity to take on more debt, now facing rate hikes and the RE equivalent of a margin call.

I think it's great that you, personally, don't need to worry about housing. I'm not sure you are in the majority, though.


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## spinningtop (Aug 15, 2017)

lightcycle said:


> While that may be true, there are other segments of homeowners other than those who bought at the top.
> 
> There is a large aging population that may soon be forced to move into assisted living/smaller homes, watching their retirement nest egg dwindle away. Also, those who took advantage of low interest rates and huge increases in home equity to take on more debt, now facing rate hikes and the RE equivalent of a margin call.
> 
> I think it's great that you, personally, don't need to worry about housing. I'm not sure you are in the majority, though.


I offered my perspective, because I think we do represent the majority. We've gotten this far in ten years, through occupational ups and downs and most of our neighbours are 20+ years older than us. A house isn't a retirement plan and that's always been true. 

Considering how far prices would have to drop before most would reach negative equity, I'd be surprised if they were forced to move. If they stay in Toronto, they have a lot more access to assistance, shorter distances for wheel trans or taxi to services (lower cost), senior property tax and water relief, snow removal assistance, https://www1.toronto.ca/wps/portal/contentonly?vgnextoid=d886e598f8a37410VgnVCM10000071d60f89RCRD generally, Toronto is not an expensive place to age in if you're already here and own property. There is CPP, OAS, GIS, and allowance for survivor. So even if their home was their retirement plan, there's already a lot of help that suggests most will be able to stay in their homes. It won't be the quality of retirement they hoped for, but they aren't forced out of their homes. Some will sell and others will stay. 

What would be really helpful is if statistics on the populations debt load were broken down by housing, detached/semi/townhouse/condo/renting. Which homeowners have extended the largest proportion of their equity into LOC and if they still have mortgages and what their credit card debt is. Right now, people are assuming most detached homeowners in Toronto are also in debt up to their eyeballs. Maybe it helps them sleep better at night, but I just don't think so, because if most Toronto detached homeowners were heavily in debt, they would bring up the average debt load to a whopping great bigger number than it currently is. One third of baby boomers still have a mortgage but most of those mortgages are under a $100k. Average LOC in TO is $30k. In those kinds of ranges, detached homes would have go down to a quarter of their value for one third of baby boomer owners to be underwater. Two thirds of baby boomer house owners have paid off their mortgage. So most would still be fine. 

Not that I'd say we were an example for everyone else. We were lucky. We were house poor when we bought and there was so much work to do on this place. If there had been a sustained, significant downturn in Toronto during the first 5 years of the great recession, we would've been caught with our pants down. Luck played into it. 

There are debt issues, but the kind of downturn in RE required before detached homeowners in TO are forced to sell on mass due to their debts would be worse than was seen in the Great Depression. And that wouldn't serve the people hoping to buy those houses. They likely wouldn't have a job with which to get a mortgage to buy a house and any savings would be eaten up in paying their bills to survive. 

House prices in TO need to come down, I dispute how far they should come down. People waiting on them to entirely collapse to the point that people are forced out of their homes en masse probably isn't what they really want unless they don't actually have anything to lose anyway.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Unfortunately, it doesn't matter what condition the majority is in, since the housing market is driven by the margin. Only a small percentage of homes are ever for sale at one time, but those sale prices affect everyone's homes. And the people who are selling are likely the ones who have to sell, so may be more willing to accept lower prices. I'd say prices could end up at 2012-2013 levels which is still pretty heady, but no where near as ridiculous as what's happened the last little while.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

^ Exactly this. You can have liquidity dry up and prices collapse with just a small % of the market being under stress. Particularly given that ownership rates are already very high so there isn't a lot of untapped demand.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

I was just looking at some Florida real estate today and it's amazing how many homes are selling today for very close to prices owners paid for them in 2004-2008. I see the same thing happening here - will not be surprised if in a decade my house is worth not much more than it is today (or was this past Feb/March).


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## spinningtop (Aug 15, 2017)

nobleea said:


> Unfortunately, it doesn't matter what condition the majority is in, since the housing market is driven by the margin. Only a small percentage of homes are ever for sale at one time, but those sale prices affect everyone's homes. And the people who are selling are likely the ones who have to sell, so may be more willing to accept lower prices. I'd say prices could end up at 2012-2013 levels which is still pretty heady, but no where near as ridiculous as what's happened the last little while.


I wouldn't call going back to 2012-2013 prices a collapse. When people say it's going to collapse, it sounds like they're talking about housing prices falling to something like 90's prices. If prices go back to 2012-2013 prices, most of the population aren't going to blink.


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## spinningtop (Aug 15, 2017)

Ihatetaxes said:


> I was just looking at some Florida real estate today and it's amazing how many homes are selling today for very close to prices owners paid for them in 2004-2008. I see the same thing happening here - will not be surprised if in a decade my house is worth not much more than it is today (or was this past Feb/March).


That would be disappointing, but anyone planning to stay in their home or able to wait it out, will wait. 

Albeit, I don't think Florida is comparable. Have you read up what was happening in the Florida RE market? They were selling homes first 3 months FREE. People were living in the house for 3 months and when the bill came, they left. Free 3 months of housing was all they were buying. They had no intention of paying any of their own money. Plus you can't get house insurance to cover all those hurricanes and they're becoming more frequent. It's the state of sink holes. Water levels are rising and most of Florida is going under. If I were in Florida, I'd be renting. It's like buying a house on the coast of southeast England. Don't. My uncles place not far from the beach will be under the English channel in less than 20 years. Not that he cares. He's elderly and will probably be dead before then. Lucky because only an idiot would buy it from him. That's part of why the housing is so cheap along that coast line. Everyone knows it's going under. I wouldn't compare Toronto RE to Florida or Sussex-Kent coastline.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

spinningtop said:


> I wouldn't call going back to 2012-2013 prices a collapse. When people say it's going to collapse, it sounds like they're talking about housing prices falling to something like 90's prices. If prices go back to 2012-2013 prices, most of the population aren't going to blink.


A lot of people will be underwater if Toronto goes back to 2012 prices. That's a 40% decline.


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

Sold the house last nite that I mentioned in post #8. Listed for 4 days. Sold a bit below list, our counter did not try to bump their offer but negated some fixes they had initially wanted done, so win-win. I thought the list seemed high anyway. Showings started out slow in day 1,2 but were growing steadily. Solid realtor on their side and young starting-out pre-aproved buyer, good deposit, short closing.
Could we have gotten more in the past year? Probably, but I'm more comfortable dealing in today's market of sober sellers & buyers than the frenzy that has been described earlier this year. 
This was not an investment property but purchased 7 years ago to accommodate a family member who needed help (still does). Not leveraged (no mortgage), so we 'only' doubled our money (after costs) in 7 years.
The bigger gain is having two properties gone now and just our primary residence to maintain (if I don't count all the work ahead on my son's recent purchase  ).


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## banjopete (Feb 4, 2014)

The other interesting part that no one has mentioned is that if appraisals are being pressured to accurately reflect the market or the risk involved on the lending side, the real story could come out in a year or two as everyone is renewing at higher rates, potentially carrying unbalanced HELOC loads.

Depending on how they expect everyone to qualify for renewals that could be a pinch point for some people who made poor decisions.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Apparently TO detached house prices are down year over year now. Can't remember when the last time that happened.


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## mopar44o (Aug 11, 2017)

Pluto said:


> Apparently TO detached house prices are down year over year now. Can't remember when the last time that happened.


Yeah I saw that. I think it was something like .05%. I own a townhome I rent in Barrie and been watching similar ones for sale for well over 4 months now after my tenant told me one sold for $414k I bought for $255 in 2014 I think. Maybe 2013. 2 have been listed now starting at 400k. They're now down to 330k & 360k respectively.

I'd like to get another rental but with the market like it still is it's hard to get positive cash flow. Even with a duplex. So I'm watching for now. September will tell which way the market goes I think.


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## new dog (Jun 21, 2016)

Another article on the Toronto price bubble going into a bear market. My opinion is that this is not a good time of year to judge such things until we get through the four seasons.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-07/toronto-home-price-bubble-bursts-bear-market


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

It looks to me like this is the beginning of a multi year consolodation for TO home prices...Giving the yourng folks some years to rent and save before the next big run up in prices.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

ran into this article that has some amazing graphs and facts re RE. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/02/9-charts-canadian-housing-wtf_n_14441902.html


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

A home sold in Newmarket in March for 1.2 million. The home is appraised today at $725,000. That is a loss of $500,000 (41%)


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

According to Statscan our city has the second lowest median family income among Ontario cities at $60,000.

A recent story in the local paper says there are thousands of new homes scheduled to be built. One developer says he is building them for $600,000 - $750,000.

First...........what would be the difference between a $600,000 and a $750,000 house and secondly..........who in our city is buying all these homes.

Also according to Statscan our wages have declined over the past 10 years.

Although there are employment opportunities around........the well paid manufacturing jobs are gone and have been replaced with low wage service industry jobs.

It is hard to raise a family and buy a home on even 2 of those kinds of jobs.


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## janus10 (Nov 7, 2013)

sags said:


> According to Statscan our city has the second lowest median family income among Ontario cities at $60,000.
> 
> A recent story in the local paper says there are thousands of new homes scheduled to be built. One developer says he is building them for $600,000 - $750,000.
> 
> ...


I don't know where you live, but as early retirees, we have seen quite a few houses and spoken to many RE agents outside the GTA.

It's people like us who may be buying in your area. We can sell up, buy a bigger, better, newer home on a much larger piece of land for 2/3 of what we own.

I think the RE agents see the next 2 1/2 months as important to see if the market rebounds somewhat from the Ontario government policies that were enacted to arrest the rapid growth.

They all sounded cautiously optimistic but still believe the top is in until at least next spring.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

sags said:


> According to Statscan our city has the second lowest median family income among Ontario cities at $60,000.
> 
> A recent story in the local paper says there are thousands of new homes scheduled to be built. One developer says he is building them for $600,000 - $750,000.
> 
> ...


well I wish the developer good luck. 10 x's median family income is too much. houses used to be 4 x's individual median income. We have a rising interest rate environment, and new much tighter mortgage lending rules coming this year. Woe to those who buy this year.


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## Userkare (Nov 17, 2014)

I don't know what to believe any more; statistics can be interpreted differently by different people. For sure, if someone bought a house this past April with the intent to resell it today, they would be in deep underwater. If they bought it to live in, and pass on to their children, what does it matter what someone else thinks it's worth? As long as they can afford the mortgage payments, what's the problem?

Speaking of statistics, zolo.ca shows the current inventory of houses in TO more than double the number sold, yet the average time on the market is 23 days with a 99% ratio of selling to listing price. Does that sound so grim? Prices have dropped drastically since the April high, but are still higher than the same time last year.

https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/trends

Am I interpreting this right, that it's not so bad, or should I be panicking about selling in Toronto.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^
I don't know if you should panic or not. It's a personal decision and only you know the facts of your situation ie when you bought, what you paid, your income etc.

A lot of first time buyers will be knocked out of the market with the new rules; They will have to qualify for current interest rate +2%. Add to that higher rates from BOC and it spells trouble. 

When on looks at trends and stats they always look rosy at the top because they are backward looking. When you look forward at coming headwinds, its not so rosy. 

But if one has good job security, and above average income, and they want their own place, go for it. For me I want value for money. If I was to say to myself what does it matter how much I pay? I know I'd be rationalizing a bad move. it matters because it costs thousands more per year to buy an asset that isn't worth what I would be paying if I bought at the top.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

On BNN....

Canadians owe 50% of what Americans owe on HELOCs in total. We have 1/10th the population. We do like our debt.


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