# Vermilion Energy (VET)



## rssdale (Dec 31, 2017)

Canadian Oil/Gas company with lots of world wide exposure (US/Europe/Australia), not tied to WCS, and a healthy dividend. Can't find much discussion on this company but with rising oil prices it seems like it could be a good pick. Thoughts?


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

rssdale said:


> Canadian Oil/Gas company with lots of world wide exposure (US/Europe/Australia), not tied to WCS, and a healthy dividend. Can't find much discussion on this company but with rising oil prices it seems like it could be a good pick. Thoughts?


I have owned it for years. Ever since it was an Income Trust. Definitely a HOLD for us. Has operations in NA, Europe & Australia. Analysts rate it as a moderate to strong buy. 
Website: http://www.vermilionenergy.com/our-operations/overview-operations.cfm


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## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

I have held some for a couple of years. It a long-term play for me. Nice to have some exposure outside of Canada.


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

https://globuc.com/2019/07/04/canadian-company-to-develop-three-oil-and-gas-sites-in-ukraine/

Canadian company Vermilion Energy would deal with the development of three oil and gas sites in Ukraine, as President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said at the meeting with Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – Ukrainian media reports.

Ukraine is interested in strengthening trade, economic and investment cooperation with Canada. This was stated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a joint briefing with Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau on July 2 in Toronto.

“Yesterday, the Ukrainian company together with Canadian “Vermilion Energy” won the right to oil and gas fields,” said Vladimir Zelensky, President of Ukraine.

Potential reserves of the area are estimated at 148 billion cubic meters of natural gas, 3200 billion cubic meters of shale gas/gas of the central-basin type. The area can give an estimated annual production of more than 10 billion cubic meters.

The interest of foreign companies in the Ukrainian subsoil became obvious after two large-scale projects to attract investors to develop 9 areas on land and one on the Black Sea shelf. The total area of the plots exceeds 20 thousand square meters.

The results of the competition on the shelf will be announced no earlier than September.

What foreign companies claim to manage Ukrainian subsoil?

Vermilion Energy, the Canadian company, claims for four out of nine development projects on land on a PSA basis. The company has experience in the extraction of traditional and unconventional gas deposits.

Slovakian Nafta together with EPH, a vertically integrated energy-industrial holding, which owns 68% of the company (another 29% is owned by the state of Slovakia), also claims to Sofiyivska PSA Block. EPH is among the ten largest energy companies in Europe. The total installed capacity of generating facilities, including two NPPs located in Slovakia, exceeds 24.3 GW, and the annual production of electrical energy reaches 100.2 TWh.

Pretending to Varvynska Block, Sigma Bleyzer is the largest private equity fund operating in the country with assets of over $ 1 billion. The most successful and well-known project of Blazer is the creation of Volya Kabel telecommunication company, which has become the largest provider of television and the Internet.

Who else wants to produce gas?

Competition to foreign companies in the PSA competition consists of the largest Ukrainian gas producers. In particular, the company DTEK Naftogaz, which specializes in deep drilling (over 5 thousand meters). Since 2013, the company has increased its gas production in Ukraine three times. DTEK Naftogaz participates in tenders for Sofiyivska and Zinkivska PSA Blocks.

Ukraine’s well-known gas producers Geo Alliance Group of Viktor Pinchuk (claims for Sofiyivska Block), Ukrnaftoburinnia of Igor Kolomoysky, Vitaliy Homutynnik, and Pavlo Fuks (claims for Rusanivska and Zinkivska PSA Blocks) also take part in the competition.

Ukrnaftoburinnia also claims on the site “Dolphin,” located on the shelf. Semi-state enterprise Ukrnafta, co-owned by Kolomoysky, also takes part in the competition. Despite the difficult situation with tax debt and regulatory restrictions, the company increased production by 10.1% over 5 months of the current year, producing 481.5 million cubic meters of gas.

Ukrnafta filed applications for Rusanivska and Sofiyivska PSA Blocks. Eurogas Ukraine is one of the participants, but there is no information about it, it claims for Zinkivska Block.

New projects gave a huge boost to the service market.

Over the past three years, such players as Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes GE, Weatherford, NOV, Bentec, Crosco, Honghua, National Oilwell Varco, Tacrom, Belarusneft have entered Ukraine over the past three years


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

Funny how there are so many articles about VET going into Ukraine, yet the company hasn't announced squat. Given that there are similar directors on KUB and VET, I smell a takeover coming. Why not, CUB would make VET that much stronger and it's already cash flow positive with many projects ongoing and major JV partners established. No brainer because Russia will cut off gas in 2020 so prices will far exceed $10 an MCF, major lucrative venture.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Monday July 27 they release financial results before the markets open. 
Analysts dropped coverage of VET in 2014.
Lots of volume (buying/selling) recently.
Read this before you decide - Motley fool
Motley has a rather rosy outlook...not sure if I believe it or not!


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

I have owned this for a few years. Added to it at this price.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

dubmac said:


> Monday July 27 they release financial results before the markets open.
> Analysts dropped coverage of VET in 2014.
> Lots of volume (buying/selling) recently.
> Read this before you decide - Motley fool
> Motley has a rather rosy outlook...not sure if I believe it or not!




i don't own vermilion but i see that motley is going on about the 10% yield dividend. 

in a nearby thread on chemtrade, folks are discussing the even loftier 12% CHE dot UN dividend.

then one astute cmffer provided a memory fragment of a BNN analyst explaining that chemtrade trades an inventory of derivative & commodity products to underwrite its dividend, ie continuation of the chemtrade dividend does not depend upon the earnings of the company (although i suspect it will be related, with a lag effect)

perhaps vermilion is doing the same? 

it seems that many high-dividend paying investment vehicles are driving their dividend payouts on derivatives trading. Many ETFs are also doing this, imho.

all in all, there's a lot of complex but under-reported derivatives trading going on, which many folks are not noticing or discussing


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

VET has some things going for it, but it definitely has above average debt and nearly or greater than 50% exposure to Canadian oil. So not without its risk, and like virtually all oil companies especially Canadian ones, it will do well if oil rises and will do poorly if oil falls. A scenario like falling oil combined with an increasing Canadian dollar and increasing western Canadian oil differentials would be very bad for this company. Dividend isn't probably cut here, but there isn't as much margin for error as there used to be. I believe it hit a new all time low on Friday - this is not a ringing endorsement of its business outlook.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

...wow. this one is dropping more. I thought 25 was the floor.


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## Bruins63 (Jan 18, 2018)

dubmac said:


> ...wow. this one is dropping more. I thought 25 was the floor.


I didn’t realize they were announcing earnings today and bought at the crack of dawn for $24...DOH!


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

In looking at our investments, this is the only oil & gas stock we still own. Not too much fortunately because it has been a real dog lately.

This is what The Fool (and Vermilion) said earlier this year:https://www.fool.ca/2019/05/22/is-this-big-dividend-stock-suitable-for-your-portfolio/
Excerpt:


> *Foolish takeaway*
> According to Vermilion’s estimated payout ratio of about 88% this year coupled with the fact that the company has maintained or increased its dividend since 2003 despite certain years having payout ratios of more than 100%, Vermilion’s 8.9% yield appears to be sustainable.


Some recent data from Marketbeat: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/TSE/VET/dividend/



> VERMILION ENERGY (TSE:VET) DIVIDEND INFORMATION
> Vermilion Energy pays an annual dividend of C$2.76 per share, with a dividend yield of 13.55%. VET's next monthly dividend payment will be made to shareholders of record on Friday, November 15. Vermilion Energy pays out 122.89% of its earnings out as a dividend.
> Next Dividend:	11/15/2019
> Annual Dividend:	$2.76
> ...


What do those of you who own VET think now? I hate to dump it at current prices, but probably should. What has happened to cause them to now have such high payout ratios compared with their earlier predictions?


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

I would add more at the current prices. In fact I recently did just that, so as to lower my average cost. It seems to have been badly affected by the current attitudes to our energy sector.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Mechanic said:


> I would add more at the current prices. In fact I recently did just that, so as to lower my average cost. It seems to have been badly affected by the current attitudes to our energy sector.


Earlier, that is what I thought. But I would question why their payout ratio is now so much higher than what the company predicted earlier this year. The attitudes to the energy sector are not something new. The payout ratio is based on their earnings, not stock price.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

ET has always had one of the higher payout ratios. VET currently has one of the highest payout ratios out of any mid/small cap oil/gas company in Canada, period, at slightly over 40%. This is why the dividend yield is so high. There are other companies with 9-10% dividend yields (WCP/SGY/ARC/TOG) that are doing so at much lower payouts (~17-28%). If you were investing in this space, I would take a 9% yield supported by 1/2 the payout ratio and also less debt, up to 50% less on a debt-to-cash-flow basis in the case of ARC and TOG, although they do sell into different markets than VET, but still trade similarly anyway.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Found this review of analyst expectations for upcoming (Oct 31st) report for quarter ending Sept30th. (In US$ terms)

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ana...ort-a-decline-in-earnings:-what-to-look-out-0

Looks like a further drop in earnings is expected. Down to almost nothing? Analyst consensus still seems to be a Hold.


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

Ukraine conflict: Front-line troops begin pullout

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50221995

Ukrainian government troops and Russian-backed separatists have begun withdrawing from a key front-line area in eastern Ukraine.

"The separation of forces in Zolote is happening right now," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said.

A separatist official quoted by Russia's RIA news agency said both sides had fired coloured signalling rockets to mark both sides' withdrawal.

A deal was agreed this month to end the Donbas region's five-year conflict.

Under the deal, both sides were to start withdrawing from their positions in the towns of Zolote and Petrivske on 9 October.

But there were skirmishes between Ukrainian police and war veterans, who tried to prevent the troop pullout.

Will a deal with Russia bring peace to Ukraine?
On 26 October Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the scene and ordered the war veterans to disarm.

Mr Prystaiko said shooting in Zolote stopped on 17 October and the withdrawal began on Tuesday once OSCE international monitors were there to check compliance by both sides.

Ukraine's military high command confirmed that the withdrawal had begun at 12:00 local time (10:00 GMT).

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption
Military representatives from both sides arranged the withdrawal with the OSCE
How did this peace deal come about?
For at least two years the fighting has been much less intense than back in 2014.

There have been daily exchanges of fire, but the front line has remained generally static.

A framework ceasefire deal was agreed in February 2015 - the Minsk agreement - but was soon violated as fighting resumed.

This year there have been several significant moves towards a peace settlement:

President Zelensky was elected by a big majority, having set a Donbas peace deal as his number one priority
In June, Ukrainian troops and separatists withdrew a kilometre from the front-line town of Stanytsia Luhanska
In September, a long-awaited prisoner swap with Russia was finally completed
On 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed a deal to bring special status to the separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions (jointly called the Donbas)
What could be the next steps?
Mr Prystaiko said that if the Zolote disengagement goes according to plan, both sides will also withdraw from their positions in Petrivske within the next 10 days.

He also voiced hope that, next month, President Zelensky would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for peace talks, mediated by the leaders of France and Germany, in what is known as the Normandy format.

"Several times already it was postponed for technical reasons, but you see how complicated all this is," he told reporters on Tuesday. "We are doing all we can to make this meeting happen."


Media captionSurviving the chaos in Ukraine - and living with the memories
The new impetus stems from a plan proposed in 2016 by Germany's then-foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, calling for: free and fair elections in the east under Ukrainian law; verification by the OSCE international security organisation; and self-governing status for Donetsk and Luhansk in return.

What triggered the conflict?
Pro-Russian separatists seized control of large swathes of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in April 2014, just after Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

It was an insurgency against the new pro-Western authorities in the capital Kyiv, who had ousted the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in street protests dubbed the "Maidan Revolution".

The separatists later declared independence from Ukraine - but no country has recognised their "republics".

Nato and Western intelligence experts have repeatedly accused Russia of sending heavy weapons and combat troops into eastern Ukraine to help the rebels.

Russia denies that, but admits that Russian "volunteers" are helping the rebels.


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

Pretty big news for Ukrainian natural gas exploration companies like VET and KUB. De-risk the area and investors should become interested again. Keeping in mind that Russia is still going ahead with cutting off Ukraine January 1 2020, so natural gas prices will go back over $10 an MCF. VET isn't stupid, they bought 500,000 acres of leases this year because 1) hard to break into the lucrative nat gas market there 2) have a vision of seeing beyond the current state of affairs.


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

Today VET announced results and also put out a company presentation. Information regarding their Ukraine purchase was unknown until now. But if you compare the presentation information and maps below, you can see that Vermilion is very close to Cub Energy. So keeping an eye on both companies for drill results. In truth, it almost makes more sense for VET to acquire KUB since VET shares the same JV in Slovakia(NAFTA) and have similar mineral leases. They also share directors.

https://www.vermilionenergy.com/files/Vermilion_Energy_-_Corporate_Presentation_-_Nov_2019_-_WEB.pdf

Awarded two exploration licenses totaling approximately 500,000 gross acres in Ukraine, in a 50/50 partnership with Ukrgazvydobuvannya ("UGV“), a Ukrainian state owned gas producer
► Partnership includes access to technical data, local drilling fleet, and key infrastructure
► Licenses located in one of Europe’s most prolific natural gas basins, the Dnieper-Donets Basin
► Adjacent to several existing multi-TCF gas fields
► Limited application of modern exploration and exploitation technology
► Production sharing agreement has attractive fiscal regime with gas market priced on European imports at Ukrainian hub (TTF premium)
► Modest back-end capital commitment over a 5-year period

Compared To KUB:

http://www.cubenergyinc.com/_resources/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=4

Transcarpathian Sedimentary Basin (West)
▪ 3 licenses 100% and 50% owned by Cub
▪ 108,000 gross acres (70,500 net) 

Dnieper-Donets Sedimentary Basin (East)
▪ 6 licenses 35% owned by Cub
▪ 203,000 gross acres (71,000 net acres)


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

VET's dividend yield is now 15.8%. Wow. If oil prices fall below $50 for any length of time, there will almost certainly be a cut; the CEO has said otherwise at current prices it's staying.


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

Funny, Vermilion bought leases around this area earlier in the summer and now their Slovakian JV partner also bought some leases.


https://www.nafta.sk/sk/nafta-sa-stala-vitazom-tendra-o-vatazhkivsku-licenciu

NAFTA became the winner of the tender for Vatazhkivskou license
Bratislava, October 31, 2019 - NAFTA, through its subsidiary NAFTA RV LLC
in Ukraine, has participated in a tender for Vatazhkiv license. With its bid in the auction succeeded and obtained
a license Vantazhkivske near the city of Poltava.

NAFTA has participated in an online auction offering five licenses covering a total area of ​​more than 700 km 2 . According to the official results of the
tender, the company was successful with its offer. Once all the conditions and other formal steps have been fulfilled
, NAFTA will acquire a license for the exploration and subsequent production of hydrocarbons under that license for 20 years. The main objective of the
company is to use its long-term experience, to comprehensively explore the potential of the license and to identify all extractable stocks.

NAFTA has been active in Ukraine since 2016, when it acquired fifty percent of its license for exploration and production of hydrocarbons
in the west of Ukraine with CUB Energy Inc. In this exploration region, NAFTA and its partner carried out a 3D seismic
survey and in September 2019 began the first exploration well under the Uzhhorod license.


NAFTA is an international company with extensive experience in the field of storage and construction of underground gas storage
facilities in Slovakia and also a Slovak leader in the exploration and extraction of hydrocarbons. The company is active in Central
European countries and is present in the Czech Republic, Germany, Austria and Ukraine. NAFTA
operates underground storage facilities with a total storage capacity of approximately 60 TWh in several countries, making it the 6th largest
gas storage operator in Europe, conducting exploration activities and participating
in renewable energy storage projects .


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

If this peace deal goes through, it will make VET's latest purchase look even better!

Kremlin Confirms Putin to Take Part in Ukrainian Peace Summit in Paris

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/11/18/world/europe/18reuters-ukraine-crisis-russia-summit.html

Kremlin Confirms Putin to Take Part in Ukrainian Peace Summit in Paris

By Reuters
Nov. 18, 2019
Updated 6:28 a.m. ET

MOSCOW — The Kremlin confirmed on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin would take part in a four-way international summit in Paris on Dec. 9, an attempt to advance efforts for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

The French presidency said on Friday that the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine would take part. But until Monday the Kremlin had failed to publicly confirm its attendance.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that Putin would attend, but declined to discuss what Moscow's expectations for the event were.

(Reporting by Alexander Marrow and Maria Kiselyova; Editing by Andrew Osborn)


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

Ukraine and Russia agree to implement ceasefire

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50713647

Ukraine and Russia agree to implement ceasefire

2 hours ago

Ukraine and Russia have agreed to implement a "full and comprehensive" ceasefire in eastern Ukraine by the end of 2019, after top-level talks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky met face to face in Paris on Monday.

Five-and-a-half years of fighting between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed rebels have cost 13,000 lives.

The negotiations were brokered by the leaders of France and Germany.

They follow a big prisoner swap and the withdrawal of Ukraine's military from three key areas on the front line.

What was agreed?

In a written statement, the countries agreed to the release and exchange of all "conflict-related detainees" by the end of the year.

The two sides also pledged to disengage military forces in three additional regions of Ukraine by the end of March 2020, without specifying which regions would be affected.

Additional talks will be held in four month to take stock of the ceasefire's progress.

At a press conference after the talks in France's Élysée Palace, President Putin hailed the talks as an "important step" towards a de-escalation of the conflict.

President Zelensky said the issue of Russian gas exports via pipelines through Ukraine had been "unblocked" after a dispute about transit tariffs, and an agreement would now be worked out.

But Russia and Ukraine continue to disagree on issues such as the withdrawal of Russia-back troops, and elections in areas of Ukraine held by separatist rebels.

Mr Putin also called for a change in Ukraine's constitution to give special status to the Donbas region, which is held by the rebels.

Ukraine's President Zelensky also told reporters that Ukraine would not make any territorial concessions in exchange for peace.

"We saw differences today," said French President Emmanuel Macron, who hosted the talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

"We didn't find the miracle solution, but we have advanced on it," he added.


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

It's good for Vermilion that they are diversifying their oil and gas operations, instead of just focusing on Canada. Meanwhile, Canada has a large oil and gas resource but are unfriendly towards investment. The oil and gas demand is not going away anytime soon and is actually increasing worldwide. I guess the Canadian government thinks they can stop worldwide oil and gas use but that won't happen, Canada just won't get any of the revenue. I sympathize with the hurt it is imposing on Canadians who depend on the sector for a living.


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

This is good news since Vermilion just spent a lot of money investing in Ukraine. Not only that, NAFTA is VET's JV partner in Slovakia, so it works out well actually. 


NAFTA confirms its interest in the project in eastern Ukraine

https://www.nafta.sk/sk/nafta-potvrdzuje-svoje-zaujem-o-projekt-na-vychode-ukrajiny

Bratislava / Prague, 9 December 2019 - NAFTA as, together with the EPH energy group, are continuing their joint efforts to acquire the Yuzivska project in eastern Ukraine.

NAFTA as (NAFTA) and EPPE Power Europe (EPPE) are prepared to jointly develop the Yuzivska project under conditions approved by the Government of Ukraine. Both companies belong to the energy group Energy Industrial Holding (EPH), and were approved by the Interministerial Commission at the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy as investors who meet the technical and financial conditions for the development of the Yuzivska project.

NAFTA will act as a technical operator in the project. The company has been operating in the field of hydrocarbon exploration and extraction for more than 105 years and intends to use the unique know-how it has gained from many projects in the project for many years in its core areas. In addition, NAFTA has been actively operating in Ukraine since 2016, where they are developing a Uzhgorod license with a partner.

“The EPH Group declares a continuing interest in the Yuzivska project and is ready to assume the relevant investment obligations under the approved Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). Our subsidiary EP Yuzivska is ready to sign a PSA approved by the Ukrainian government and EPH is ready to issue a guarantee to the parent company to secure the financial resources needed for the implementation and rapid development of the Yuzivska project immediately after its approval. Since we have a detailed mapping of the project, we can guarantee the timely extraction of hydrocarbons for the Ukrainian market, ” said a source from the EPH Group.

“Yuzivska is a greenfield project associated with a high geological risk and requires extensive research work. We believe that by implementing our know-how, experience and methods, we will be able to uncover the full potential of the license. As part of this project, we are ready to allocate our capacities to Ukraine in order to fully develop this project and ensure increased energy independence of Ukraine, ” said the CEO of NAFTA as

NAFTA as is an international company with extensive experience in the field of storage and construction of underground gas storage facilities in Slovakia and also a Slovak leader in the exploration and extraction of hydrocarbons. The company is active in Central European countries and is present in the Czech Republic, Germany, Austria and Ukraine. NAFTA operates underground storage facilities in several countries, conducts exploration activities and participates in renewable energy storage projects. With a total storage capacity of approximately 60 TWh, it is the 6th largest gas storage operator in Europe.


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

Mechanic said:


> It's good for Vermilion that they are diversifying their oil and gas operations, instead of just focusing on Canada. Meanwhile, Canada has a large oil and gas resource but are unfriendly towards investment. The oil and gas demand is not going away anytime soon and is actually increasing worldwide. I guess the Canadian government thinks they can stop worldwide oil and gas use but that won't happen, Canada just won't get any of the revenue. I sympathize with the hurt it is imposing on Canadians who depend on the sector for a living.


It's too bad Canada has poor leadership and the hipsters from the East and some from Vancouver can't see this. People need to eat, doesn't matter how clean the environment if everyone is broke, crime will then kick in anyway rather than offering jobs to people and using taxes and royalties to try and mitigate any environmental disaster. Oh well, saw today that Wexit is an official party and if Trudeau keeps his fathers hateful mentality towards the west, I bet AB,SK,MB and half of BC will vote this new party in and we can push the granola tree huggers out of BC and separate from the Bloc leeches of the East.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Demand worldwide for oil and gas will no doubt continue to rise for a few decades at least. At the same time, discoveries of oil are also on the rise. Several low cost discoveries recently.Oil prices may be affected by increased supply and lessening demand in some markets. This is not good for high cost producers as we have in Canada. I also had concerns about Vermilion now being in an unstable region. As a result, it is one of the stocks I recently trimmed. Have none left now. 

Staying for now with big energy like BP/Shell. Also have concerns about IPL and PPL. The polypropylene projects both are building will more than likley end up over budget and markets may not be as expected. These are huge projects that could hurt these companies. I still own some of each, but may sell despite the nice dividends!


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Those poly plants will produce high demand value added plastics. Not the single use shite that is at risk.


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

Some of the attitudes in BC are pitiful. They are just in la la land. They have no idea that it is going to bite them where the sun doesn't shine. Meanwhile BC Hydro costs just keep going up.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

I suppose then ideal Canadia would be more like the planet moclus? Working stiffs, industrialized landscape, dense smog, no women.


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

Good news for KUB and VET:

FT: Putin's new Ukraine man lifts hopes of peace progress in Kyiv

10:19, 30 January 2020 WORLD 1577 0 People close to the peace talks said the changes were intended to formalise Mr. Kozak's emergence as Mr. Putin's lead negotiator on Ukraine.

https://www.unian.info/world/108519...an-lifts-hopes-of-peace-progress-in-kyiv.html

Vladimir Putin's promotion of a crucial figure driving peace talks with Ukraine has been welcomed by Kyiv as a signal of renewed willingness in Moscow to resolve the six-year conflict between the two countries. Dmitry Kozak, a former deputy prime minister, was appointed to a newly created position in the presidential administration last week as part of sweeping changes in the Kremlin that analysts said were designed to lengthen Mr. Putin's rule, according to the Financial Times. The announcement was followed by the reported resignation of Vladislav Surkov, Mr. Putin's chief negotiator on Ukraine.

People close to the peace talks said the changes were intended to formalise Mr. Kozak's emergence as Mr. Putin's lead negotiator on Ukraine. Mr. Kozak oversaw two landmark prisoner exchanges last year that were widely hailed as progress in efforts to bring an end to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia-backed armed forces. The conflict in eastern Ukraine, which started with Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, has claimed 14,000 lives.

Mr. Kozak has also helped resurrect four-party peace talks led by France and Germany. The so-called "Normandy four" negotiations resumed last month after years of stalling under Mr. Surkov. "Surkov was playing interference. If he is really gone this is good," said a person close to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.

Mr. Kozak will now have to reconcile Ukraine's efforts to reclaim the two Moscow-backed breakaway states on its border with Russia. Mr. Zelensky has refused to grant the regions lasting autonomy – a move seen in Ukraine as giving Russia a veto over Kyiv's pro-western foreign policy – and instead wants to include them in a planned decentralisation reform. "Surkov was [driving] a policy of weakening Ukraine and preventing the signature of future EU and Nato agreements by politically destabilising the territory," a person familiar with the peace talks said. "Now we are more into managing the process on the ground. [ . . .] It's a more pragmatic approach. Kozak is a stronger administrator and good on the economy." But other people close to the talks cautioned that Mr. Putin, who has shown no sign of easing pressure on Ukraine, will remain the ultimate decision maker. "Zelensky's guys just associate all the problems with Surkov. They don't get who they're dealing with," the former Kremlin colleague said. "Of course they won't give the territories back. It's a fantasy."


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

I used to like Vermilion. But do you want to invest in something that is in part dependent on Russia backed peace initiatives? I am out of VET. Good luck to those staying with it.


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

I like VET and hold it in several accounts. Took a hit today though.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Wouldn't buy shares until results are out to see how things are going. The stock although depressed is not trading at a relative bargain. They make a lot of natural gas and get good prices but Euro nat gas is at multi year lows. So everything is a little more stretched now. But I think they're hedged pretty well for this year.


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## EPS_Investor (Sep 7, 2017)

I think VET going into Ukraine will become a lucrative project. Only reason nat gas prices are low right now is for two reasons: 1) Ukraine stockpiled in 2019 because of fears that Gazprom would cut them off 2) Unseasonably warm winter. Once the excess production wears off, prices will shoot back over $6 an MCF. For example, KUB was making $1-2 million USD per quarter in 2018 to 2019 and they only got around 850boed. Someone like Vermilion could make much more, especially given that they purchased over 500k acres of leases in Eastern Ukraine. NAFTA, the multi billion dollar Slovakian nat gas company (and VET's JV partner) also just bought a lot of land in the east next to Vermilion. Ukraine will de-escalate soon and value will come to Vermilion


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

RIP VET. Dividend slashed in half but probably should have been eliminated. $2B in debt still will be tough to handle with oil in the $30s and maybe $20s.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Didn't see that. Happy I dumped it.


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## cliffsecord (Jan 10, 2020)

I learned my lesson from CPG a few years ago. These pure income oil plays are just bad news ready to happen. Lesson learned for me back then and had no desire to buy ARC or VET in the last year.

Oil may still be used for a long time, but if the stock market doesn't put a good value on those companies then what's the point in investing in those companies?


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

A very large number of commodity companies pay their dividend through what is almost identical to a ponzi scheme. There are exceptions but not many. Certainly not many that produce a commodity that has a depleting nature to it. That would be your drillers and miners.

As most of us should know by now, all ponzi schemes eventually implode.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

cliffsecord said:


> I learned my lesson from CPG a few years ago. These pure income oil plays are just bad news ready to happen. Lesson learned for me back then and had no desire to buy ARC or VET in the last year.
> 
> Oil may still be used for a long time, but if the stock market doesn't put a good value on those companies then what's the point in investing in those companies?





OptsyEagle said:


> A very large number of commodity companies pay their dividend through what is almost identical to a ponzi scheme. There are exceptions but not many. Certainly not many that produce a commodity that has a depleting nature to it. That would be your drillers and miners.
> 
> As most of us should know by now, all ponzi schemes eventually implode.


I took a much larger bite into these energy plays as a new investor over a decade ago. EGL (now bankrupt), SGY, CPG, RPL. I was lucky to make money off Renegade. Unfortunately, I put that profit into SGY. On occasion I consider ARC, VET, WCP etc. Now when I get the urge to buy this type of stock I look at my returns on SGY and EGL. If I were to make any oil play it would be through the likes of Chevron, Exxon, Suncor, Cenovus, Royal Dutch, or BP. May do so come at some point but not yet.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Down 30, 35% today. Yikes!


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