# ACB Aurora Cannabis Inc



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

ACB.V

Figured I'd start a thread about this company.


Stock sits at 2.52 today... I like to post the price as we look back as the months go by!


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

These potcos and their history make for interesting reading. Most started and went to the market with IPO's fairly recently.
I'm not familiar with ACB. Their investor website is here: https://auroramj.com/investors/. 
They have a very nicely designed link to their SEDAR records. 

A quick and incomplete history appears as: 
July 2007 began public life as Milk Capital Corp, a CPC with an IPO of $1.5MM. 
Oct 2007 listed on the TSX-V in Oct as MLK.P
Sept 2010 they changed their name to Prescient Mining Corp listed as PMC on the TSX-V. They poked around with base metal and uranium properties until as late as 2012.
May 2014 Prescient delisted from the TSX-V and listed on the CSE.
June 2014 Prescient announced plans to acquire a corporation in the final stages of acquiring a licence to produce medical pot.
Sept 2014 Prescient announced their agreement with Aurora Marijuana to undertake a reverse takeover and change their name to Aurora Cannabis.
Dec 2014 the acquisition of Aurora closed and they were listed on CSE as ACB.
Nov 2015 Health Canada issues a sales licence to Aurora for its grow facility in Cremona, Alberta.
Mar 2016 Aurora sued 6 of the original principals of Prescient for a number of inappropriate actions.

So they have transformed from a shellco to a very legitimate potco in 10 short years.
Obviously - and not to detract from their contributions - the early principals and insiders with 5 and 30 cent options have done very well.


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## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

Been following this one and considering to add to my portfolio very shortly. Although WEED (formerly CGC) is the one to have, I think I can get more gains with ACB given their current valuation. Organigram is the other one and seems to be the only one who is profitable right now but for some reason, I think Aurora is in better position. My feeling (and hope) is that Canopy and Aurora become the 2 main players where Canopy services the East Coast and Aurora the West - given their locations. Of course, this is all speculation, hopes and dreams. We're all just gambling at this point!


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## Johnred (Dec 30, 2016)

Be careful with OGI I am pretty sure they just lost their licence to grow and lawsuits may be on the horizon


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## spdr1812 (Apr 8, 2016)

Johnred said:


> Be careful with OGI I am pretty sure they just lost their licence to grow and lawsuits may be on the horizon


Also arent they the principle supplier to the Vets across Canada which the Liberals just rolled back their daily amounts ..?


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

anyone own this now? are you cashing in. now - with Coca cola rumors- or hanging on?


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

I had a standing order to sell at $10 and it kicked in yesterday. These valuations are getting silly. There's probably a bit more of a ride until the end of the year, then speculators will get bored. I don't think sales/profits numbers will justify the valuations in the short to medium term. Long term, maybe if other countries follow suit.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

I'm holding on to my industry holdings for now- I want to see what happens to pot stocks as October 17 approaches.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

I just think everyone is thinking 'I'll wait until it's actually legal, then sell'


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## chantl01 (Mar 17, 2011)

indexxx said:


> I'm holding on to my industry holdings for now- I want to see what happens to pot stocks as October 17 approaches.


Same here, except CGC which we sold at $73 in all the craziness a week or two ago. I don't expect we'll see it return to that level for a few years. But the lower-priced ones we're still holding on to for the moment, at least until shortly after legalization by which point the level of over-valuation is likely to become apparent.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

me again... I, probabaly like a lot of people, have had a nice little run with this thing.
I'm gettin' trigger happy. Do you think its best to hang on til the 17th or later?...or exhale now...?


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Don't bogart my stock dude! :biggrin:


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

pass de kouchie from de left hand side, mon...


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

gettin' itchy .....
might pull trigger if it hits $16 tomorrow (that's Oct. 16 - day before legalization, for anyone who looks in on this tread in a year's time or so...:smiley_simmons
wadday'all think....??


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Sheesh. Bought at $7, sold at $11, chickened out too soon!


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## Speculator (May 9, 2018)

peterk said:


> Sheesh. Bought at $7, sold at $11, chickened out too soon!


You're not alone. I made all my money getting out early too. Bought at $8, sold at $13:very_drunk:


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## hboy54 (Sep 16, 2016)

peterk said:


> Sheesh. Bought at $7, sold at $11, chickened out too soon!


The problem is you never know if you will be the last greater fool.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

hoping acb, and me, both get high tomorrow!!!

(also hoping my pizza & munchies stocks start to kick in....)


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

Loved the near 10% climb yesterday- taking a "hit" today though- 5% down. HMMJ down also. Tough to say what tomorrow will do to the SP, but I'm still in.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

was gonna sell original investment $ at $16 this morning....& just let the balance (profit) ride.....but didnt act quick enough.....oh well


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## GreenAvenue (Dec 28, 2011)

... just sit and hold. You'll see a dip in the next week but this will go way over $30.


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## carson (Apr 28, 2011)

Bought 500 shares at 8.90 a few weeks ago. We don't plan on selling anytime soon as we think of it as a long term investment. I think fair value should be around 20/share. If it goes much above that will probably average out.


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## novagui (Oct 17, 2018)

GreenAvenue said:


> ... just sit and hold. You'll see a dip in the next week but this will go way over $30.


This is of course pure speculation, but I really hope the future will prove you right!


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

"GreenAvenue" says so. It must be true!


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

GreenAvenue said:


> ... just sit and hold. You'll see a dip in the next week but this will go way over $30.


ya think?


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## 30seconds (Jan 11, 2014)

GreenAvenue said:


> ... just sit and hold. You'll see a dip in the next week but this will go way over $30.


That would put it at a 31 bil market cap. Maybe one day..


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## Kevin Finance (Jun 23, 2018)

*I'm gonna ride the wave*

I think it will be interesting to see how the companies perform on the delivery side. A couple times I've had my doubts about Aurora that with some of the mergers they were diluting our stock too much for what they were getting but I think they do have a solid approach at being a leader in the market.

I hope it gets above $30 in the next 12 months.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

whatthe...?
opened around $13, currently @ $12.44...
I thought it would bump back up today....?


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

....so, a week into legal dope - where, by most accounts, things are smokin' hot...
yet, ACB has come down off its high..
where's this train headed...?


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## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

jargey3000 said:


> ....so, a week into legal dope - where, by most accounts, things are smokin' hot...


are they, though?
where do you see that?
news that i am seeing is that direct consumer demand for recreational pot is very muted (other than some legalization overnight parties).
all we have is hype from other industries like soft drinks and alcohol that they are considering pot infused products....
direct consumer demand is mostly meh...


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

oh...im just going bythe news thata lot of the stores around here sold out of product last week....
maybe i should just dump my shares, take a little profit & kick the habit....?


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

Another huge drop today. Was hoping that my stop limit would be filled on Monday, but unfortunately it wasn't.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

ACB...anyone still hanging on to this sucka...(like me)...?


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

Made some money on ACB but I am holding a few others that are down. Just going to hold on.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

woulda...coulda....shoulda.....


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

Luckily I got out of the sector a few weeks ago. For now at least. for the first time in years, I'm mostly on the sidelines right now- crazy volatility. Wish I'd dropped my Amazon shares a month ago just to lock in profit, but I'm ok waiting for them to resurge.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

ditto with my APPL shares


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

jargey3000 said:


> ditto with my APPL shares


Yup- lotta blood in the streets lately.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

...I wonder, if, in 5? or so years from now....some o us (who are still living) might look at back at this time & say " what a great time to have bought some ofthese great stocks"....


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

back to ACB..... anyone have a feel where its price is heading? 
up a bit last few days....today around the $9.50 mark.....?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i have it and have watched it yo yo, these are stocks that will not pay off for some time to come, hold for the long term, they are producing weed on a large scale (along with canopy) for something like around a dollar a gram which is fairly low though i think there is no standard metric to measure cost per gram, it is fudgeable


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

Any way we can corner the fresh veggie market before import prices soar?
All these damn potcos are buying up greenhouse operations to grow pot. 
Another case of short sightedness - like letting good farmland and orchards go under the blade for ticky tacky subdivisions.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Any way we can corner the fresh veggie market before import prices soar?
> All these damn potcos are buying up greenhouse operations to grow pot.
> Another case of short sightedness - like letting good farmland and orchards go under the blade for ticky tacky subdivisions.


competition will sort that out and i suspect that big operations with the lowest per gram costs will drive out the smaller guys except for some boutique players

most people want a _marlboro_ of the cannabis world, predictable and reliable and works the same way every time and that comes with size and scale i think ... though i am not an expert on cannabis by any means


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

_'i have it and have watched it yo yo,"_

me too, but, I'm thinking of ditching it (a single stock) at a profit.... and maybe just buying into an ETF ...HMMJ maybe, or whatever???


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## spdr1812 (Apr 8, 2016)

Thinking about selling half my position @ $10 , bought at $2.35 .. bought Canopy @ $4 and sold when it was bouncing around $30-35 before topping near $70 .. who knows uggh .


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

dont feel too bad... i sold canopy at $15 !
shoulda timed it better ....lol


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## spdr1812 (Apr 8, 2016)

Had limit set for $10 , seen the news of the 250 mil and just shook my head ..


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

spdr1812 said:


> Had limit set for $10 , seen the news of the 250 mil and just shook my head ..


what was the news?
and why bad?


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## spdr1812 (Apr 8, 2016)

Maybe not "bad" news , but after announcement , price dropped $1 so wasn't exactly received well ..


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## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

anybody else selling and taking the loss on this one?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Legal pot costs more than illegal pot.
Enforcement is expensive with no public support.

I never saw the case for massive profits in this sector.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

They were victims of their own success. Stock prices went nuts and they did the only rational thing: sell shares to fulfill their promises. They raised so much money and built crazy capacity. Aurora had plans to produce over 600 tons of marijuana a year. That's close to 100% of the Canadian market. They are still going to try to make 200 tons. That might be closer, but they will run out of money and are going to dilute shareholders. And the share price keeps going down. There is no other way for them to get money now. Supply and demand and there is just an endless supply of their paper.

They've lost 85% of their market value. That is pretty indicative of permanent capital destruction. 

The stock has to go up close to 600% to return to levels only a year ago.

Debt and capital requirements are what make this a very risky investment - if they were fully funded for their operations with low debt, then there might be hope, but that is not at all the case.


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## kelaa (Apr 5, 2016)

The beer industry in Canada is about $14 billion. A cursory look at alcohol companies' market cap / revenue ratio:

~1 Andrew Peller, Molson Coors
~2 AnheuserBusch InBrev
~4 Diageo, Constellation Brands

I would guess in the case the of the liquor companies, the brands themselves are pretty valuable. Is there any value to to marijuana branding? Otherwise it would be closer to a commodity business.

On a present revenue of 300 million, even on a 100% growth rate for the next 2 years, it's still only a 1.5 billion dollar company two years out. I don't see how any of the numbers work out for investors. Does anyone think a Canadian marijuana company would dominate globally? There is hardly anything proprietary* or even capital intensive. If global marijuana trade became an above-board thing, couldn't someplace like Mexico undercut your pricing by a huge margin? Canada is using prime farmland (say ~15k / acre), greenhouses, and electricity to grow its marijuana. They can do the same thing in an open field without even irrigation. 

*Yes, I know there is horticulture research concerning marijuana, but again, how much of that is for the bulk market and how much of the intellectual property is actually enforceable?


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