# Moneysense 2013 Stock Picks performance



## natejjj (Nov 14, 2013)

I created a google spreadsheet to analyze the performance of last years Moneysense 2013 stock picks.

Can be seen here

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hKemxOTjdmdHJiYVROQk1BZWc&usp=drive_web#gid=3

If you invested 10k in each pick, you would have made a return of 51% to date. Each year this guy has outperformed the market for the past 8 years. I haven't checked out his most recent picks for 2014, but I plan to. I am in no way associated with Moneysense, just another DIY investor who wanted to share what I found.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

thats norm rothery right ?
i always check out moneysense
i think i bought their last top 200 or something via a pdf


----------



## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

There's something wrong with the linked spreadsheet. There's only 8 stocks in it.


----------



## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Since this is a first post by a new, unknown user, I would suggest that nobody click on the attached link (especially if you are already logged into your google account) until there is actual confirmation that the spreadsheet is legit.

(sorry to everybody, if I seem overly cautious, but I've been hit by viruses before)


----------



## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

avrex said:


> Since this is a first post by a new, unknown user, I would suggest that nobody click on the attached link until there is confirmation that the spreadsheet is legit.
> 
> (sorry to everybody, if I seem overly cautious, but I've been hit by viruses before)


It's a Google doc spreadsheet, not Excel, so it shouldn't be able to spread viruses.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

The link appears to be legit google spreadsheet.


----------



## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Good idea to be cautious but I concur that this seems to be a legtimate post and link.


----------



## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

There were 20 stocks graded an "A" for 2013

Agrium (AGU)
Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD.B)
AutoCanada (ACQ)
CGI Group (GIB.A)
E-L Financial (ELF)
FirstService (FSV)
Great-West Lifeco (GWO)
Intact Financial (IFC)
Jean Coutu Group (PJC.A)
Linamar (LNR)
Magna International (MG)
Methanex (MX)
Mullen Group (MTL)
National Bank of Canada (NA)
Power Corp of Canada (POW)
Ridley (RCL)
Rogers Communications (RCI.B)
Stella-Jones (SJ)
TransForce (TFI)
Winpak (WPK)


----------



## natejjj (Nov 14, 2013)

fatcat said:


> thats norm rothery right ?
> i always check out moneysense
> i think i bought their last top 200 or something via a pdf


Yes it is.




avrex said:


> There's something wrong with the linked spreadsheet. There's only 8 stocks in it.


I only inpit his Top 8 "All Stars Stocks". Yes, he picked more then 8. He picked 20 for Value, and 20 for Growth, and those were just his Canadian picks. The spreadsheet can be easily modified to reflect any stock. Just change the symbol, and adjust the amount invested to reflect the price on a certain date.


----------



## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Some of the 20 stocks above are very overbought right now and I would expect them to under-perform in the 6 months


----------



## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

My apologies to new member @natejjj and everyone else for my above cautiousness.

I kinda panicked when I saw such an empty spreadsheet with only 8 stocks, whereas I expected to see 200 stocks. That's what had me question the spreadsheet.

I finally realized that there were *only 8 *All-Star stocks last year, out of the 200 evaluated in the magazine, for 2013.

sorry. Carry on with this thread.


----------



## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

webber22 said:


> Some of the 20 stocks above are very overbought right now and I would expect them to under-perform in the 6 months


I would agree with you. Some of these names might be getting long in the tooth.

One slight clarification. 
@webber22, you're above list of 20 stocks (grade 'A') is the *2013 Growth Team*.
Please note, there were also 20 stocks (grade 'A') on the *2013 Value Team*.
_Trivia note: _ E-L Financial was the only 2013 stock that got an 'A' for both value and growth.

To make the* Final All-Star team*, a stock needed a grade of 'A' or 'B' in both the growth and value categories.
In 2013, only 8 stocks made the All-Star team (as shown by the OP's spreadsheet in the first post).

*This year, 11 stocks make up the 2014 All-Star team.*
_Trivia Note: _ Of the 11 stocks, only two return from last year: E-L Financial (ELF) and Newalta (NAL)


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

avrex said:


> I would agree with you. Some of these names might be getting long in the tooth.
> 
> One slight clarification.
> @webber22, you're above list of 20 stocks (grade 'A') is the *2013 Growth Team*.
> ...


What issue is the 2014 all star team from? 
I have the Nov 2013, "Best stocks to retire on" is that the same one?


----------



## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Jungle said:


> What issue is the 2014 all star team from?


The* Dec/Jan 2014* issue. 
I received mine in the mail. It should be on newsstands now or very soon.


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

avrex said:


> The* Dec/Jan 2014* issue.
> I received mine in the mail. It should be on newsstands now or very soon.


Anyone still in this? 
2014 picks not doing so well this year, down about 6% against xic.

I have the same portfolio, except used suncor instead of hse and added cnr as an extra Stock. It's underperforming xic by 5%. Dividends not included. 

We should get the top 200 picks in the next issue, but it seems the date on the stock picks is behind the publishing date by a month?


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

http://www.moneysense.ca/invest/stocks/stocks-to-retire-on

BMO, PWF get "A's" this year.

Another three big banks, some energy companies, some insurance companies and CTC get the "B's".

Own half of these with no intention of selling, run DRIPs with them


----------



## leslie (May 25, 2009)

Speaking from memory here .....
Doesn't the author of this stock list always include a warning at the bottom saying to not use his portfolio for more than a small part of your portfolio? In other words he appreciates its high risk.


----------



## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

MOA that's a different list
The All Star edition will likely be the next one?
Not the one that just came out

I like that retire list, curious why BMO is better than the rest and RBC didnt even make the list
no telecoms sadly 
I like Atco, CNQ, MIC from that list


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

webber22 said:


> There were 20 stocks graded an "A" for 2013


Let's go back and look at performance of last year's list versus the time this post was made. I'm adding total return (according to stockcharts) from 2013-11-19 to 2014-10-14

+4.0% Agrium (AGU)
+46.2% Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD.B)
+31.6% AutoCanada (ACQ)
-3.9% CGI Group (GIB.A)
+0.0% E-L Financial (ELF)
+42.5% FirstService (FSV)
-3.3% Great-West Lifeco (GWO)
+11.3% Intact Financial (IFC)
+38.7% Jean Coutu Group (PJC.A)
+23.9% Linamar (LNR)
+10.4% Magna International (MG)
-7.5% Methanex (MX)
-17.3% Mullen Group (MTL)
+13.8% National Bank of Canada (NA)
-7.0% Power Corp of Canada (POW)
+91.8% Ridley (RCL)
-7.9% Rogers Communications (RCI.B)
+14.0% Stella-Jones (SJ)
+9.4% TransForce (TFI)
+30.0% Winpak (WPK)

Average: +16.0%
Median: +10.9%

As a benchmark, ZCN (TSX Composite) total return is +7.5% in this period.
As another comparison point, XBB (a broad bond index) total return is +6.8% in this period.

Note that the stock picks have a notable outlier, so median return is probably a more meaningful number. The outlier, Ridley, was a small-cap (worth $150 million or so at the time) with an average daily volume of barely 1000 shares. Thus I consider this one a total lottery ticket.

So where does this leave us ... you have a median return of +10.9% which admittedly is pretty good. But when you compare to the benchmark at +7.5% you have to really wonder whether the +3.4% extra performance is really worth all this trouble. Managing these positions costs 20x the trading commissions of an index fund.

My intuition is, no it's not really worth the stock picking. Typically when you start stock picking like this you need to see a significant outperformance versus the index. This group of stocks does not demonstrate that.


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Sorry @SheaButters, into the 2014 stuff already


----------



## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Let's go back and look at performance of last year's list versus the time this post was made. I'm adding total return (according to stockcharts) from 2013-11-19 to 2014-10-14
> 
> +4.0% Agrium (AGU)
> +46.2% Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD.B)
> ...


I have 2013 and 2014 issues in front of me. What you posted is *growth* A-s from 2013 issue (2 years back). They are not all-stars. The all-stars are graded A/A, A/B or B/A on growth and value.

Also, because your growth list is from 2013, you should measure its performance from 2012-11 to 2013-11.


----------



## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

For the reference:

2013 all-stars

ELF, IDG, IAG, MG, MX, NAL, POW, WPK

2014 all-stars

ARE, CAM, CVL, ELF, ESI, MIC, HSE, MRE, NAL, SLF, WJA


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Yes goldstone is correct. He usually does the "all stars" pick around Oct 21, then it comes out 1-2 weeks after, as the Dec/Jan issue. The picks are more of a "deep value" theme. 

The issue My Own Advisor is talking about is his "retirement all stars" are more on the "dividend" theme. THis year he only selects two dividend all stars stocks, I didn't like the idea of putting a whole portfolio in only two stocks. 

Anyway, I think last years picks will have underperformed, unless they can rise 6% against the TSX, in the next 5 days. In defense of his picks, some of the stocks have actually increased earnings quite well, yet the market has not caught on yet or will not reward the stock for other reasons. 

This year I think the picks might be really good, due to the sell off we've encountered, I'm hoping there is some deep value out there.


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Wow this has ended on a sour note, MRE down -20% and ARE down -12% today alone, new picks supposed to arrive tomorrow. 
The CAD picks have now underperformed the TSX by about 8%, I believe.


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Don't know about MRE, but I'm surprised Norm Rothery picked ARE.
It is a graveyard for investors.
This company has a long history of destroying shareholder value.


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

They appear to have execution issues and inconsistant earnings. Every quarter they keep talking about all this backlog - but I guess that is normal for construction companies. I think he was hoping to catch them on the upside, if the earnings did play out. 

MRE is reporting record revenues for the last few quarters now, but lower earnings YOY. THey need to get their costs and plant shut downs under control.


----------



## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

HaroldCrump said:


> Don't know about MRE, but I'm surprised Norm Rothery picked ARE.


He didn't pick it. His quantitative model did it for him. As far as I know, his only input is to set the screen parameters.


----------



## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

I used to own MRE, realized earlier this year they will always find a way to disappoint and sold the stock.

A C+ player in the auto parts sector.


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Based on the above comments, we can derive a golden rule of investing - never buy stocks whose tickers end with *RE*.
They are dogs and will always disappoint.
This rule will never fail :biggrin:


----------



## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

Moneysense has posted the 2015 all-star list for Canadian and US stocks online. There are certainly some interesting choices...


----------



## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

I just went to chapters wasn't there yet  

not in mail yet either!


----------



## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

Electronic version has been out about a week


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Should be in my mailbox soon.... I find the online version is usually posted about 1-2 weeks before the hardcopy is available.


----------



## moose (Nov 19, 2013)

I have a quick question regarding one of Norm's 2014 All Stars, figured this is the most appropriate place to ask. 

Empire Life Financial Corp Ltd (ELF) was listed as a part of the value group as well as an All Star so I figured I'd check it out. I found out its trading at 0.7 P/B (according to morningstar), its market price atm is ~700$ and its book price is listed as ~1000$.

Why is there such a wide difference here? Does it have to do with the small volume on the common shares? I'm intrigued by value, but I want to learn why there is this difference and what accounts for it. Anyone have any thoughts?


----------



## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

moose said:


> 0.7 P/B
> Why is there such a wide difference here?


This is the great challenge of investing. 
In a perfectly valued world, the P/B ratio of each stock would be 1.0.

However 'Mr. Market' says otherwise and the current 'low' price of ELF.TO reflects that market sentiment.


----------



## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

moose said:


> I have a quick question regarding one of Norm's 2014 All Stars, figured this is the most appropriate place to ask.
> 
> Empire Life Financial Corp Ltd (ELF) was listed as a part of the value group as well as an All Star so I figured I'd check it out. I found out its trading at 0.7 P/B (according to morningstar), its market price atm is ~700$ and its book price is listed as ~1000$.
> 
> Why is there such a wide difference here? Does it have to do with the small volume on the common shares? I'm intrigued by value, but I want to learn why there is this difference and what accounts for it. Anyone have any thoughts?


It's a conglomerate holding company that barely trades and has a very high per share price. It's typical for conglomerates to trade at a discount.

I took a look at the statements, it's a very difficult company to analyze, complex financial reporting. If a DIYer buys this, they are buying on faith that the recommendation is a good one. It would take ages and a lot of financial knowledge to really take a hard look at all the investments they own.


----------



## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

There is one stock on both value and growth lists, $600 stock, haha buy like 4 shares 

Is anyone going to try out the list? Doesn't seem too unreasonable. 
It's also kinda diversified

Any companies on there bring up question marks to anyone?

Warren buffet doesn't like airlines...

I own 2 on the value team  that's it


----------



## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

I have a subscription to Money Sense (for my company's reception area but I get first crack at it every month). Read the article today, yawned deeply then briefly went online and looked at my seven figure etf portfolio hitting another new high value today and went and played in the snow with my kids who were off today with a PD day for a couple of hours.

Summary - Life is better for me since I stopped picking stocks, even ones on fancy lists. I am not smrt enough to beat the markets and it's sure less stress, time, thought, worry, choice for me.


----------



## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

SheaButters said:


> Is anyone going to try out the list? Doesn't seem too unreasonable.


Be very careful with this year's list. The timing works against you. MoneySense ran the stock screen on Oct 20, very close to the bottom of V-shaped correction. Most stocks on the list gained a lot since Oct 20. A few stocks jumped ~20%. That's a good gain for a full year, all done in one month. You have to wonder how much juice is left.


----------

