# Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM, TLM.TO)



## bootsie

What are people thoughts on this one?

I am down about 10%, still holding on but thinking of bailing? wonders what other think?


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## Toronto.gal

I don't know about the next 6 months.....

I hold long term [got back in, in the last quarter of 2011], but given its volatility, also trade the stock. 

Project delays, gas prices, etc., have not helped this energy stock, but I like it long term.

2012 guidance summary:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/318...eo-hosts-2012-guidance-update-call-transcript


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## dubmac

When you look down the right column in the TLM stockchase page (link below), none of the analysts have much of a consensus. Very difficult to figure out - but - awesome price to buy as a value play...no?

http://www.stockchase.com/Company-sl--slq-ID-slv-Talisman--Energy.php


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## humble_pie

on the negative side: global properties too far-flung. Global footprint is messy. Too much gas. Large debt. Crappy options. Dumb pie owns shares. These are all negative factors


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. on the negative side: global properties too far-flung.
> 2. Dumb pie owns shares. These are all negative factors


1. Billions in assets will be sold.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article297007.ece

2. Dumb gal owns shares too, so I'm definitely in good company.


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## Toronto.gal

dubmac said:


> awesome price to buy as a value play...no?


Severely undervalued; definitely a value play IMHO!


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## Spidey

It does look interesting and appears undervalued. I usually look for a better dividend than this one offers. Although there has been a certain amount of insider buying there has been net selling by insiders. Looks like some officers are buying and selling within a trading range. I'll continue to keep an eye on this but I think if I'm in the mood to take a bit of a "fly", I will opt for ECA over this one.


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## Betzy

Just put a buy order in for a 2013 Jan C option 10.00 strike.


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## humble_pie

tlm options have historically been crappy. Sadly i speak from experience. 

tlm is essentially a US co now - div in USD, share volume hi in US markets - so one would go to US options. 

i'd have to doublecheck everything but i think if one really wanted to put on a bullish gassy option play one would go to eca or chesapeake ...


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## KaeJS

I don't have six months to wait. But I think it's a good buy around $12.

I'll be looking to get out tomorrow if the markets are pointing downward.


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## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I don't have six months to wait. But I think it's a good buy around $12.
> 
> I'll be looking to get out tomorrow if the markets are pointing downward.


Around $12  It's a drop of 50%


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## newbie

gibor said:


> Around $12  It's a drop of 50%


and then what Gibor?
it is bound to drop further .
cant tell u the bottom obviously , but if u guys are going to play NG companies be carefull here .
anyway GL to both of ya
alright let me give u both a little insight of possible scenarios for fall prices , below 2 bux providing we have a linepack of NG .
now since there are other members that only bash me here that is as much as i will share.
u guys should really have a better insight on what you are buying, so do some reading as to why NG is selling as we speak on the Nymex at 2.56 on the G12 contract.
this is a tough game to play boys.
the companies are very well managed , problem is the product which they are producing.
there are talks amongst storage operators that it may trade below 2.4 before G12 expires.


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## al42

Buy order just got triggered @ 11.48 for a few shares.
I don't think it's the bottom but must be close?
Allot of their NG production is in Asia where they are getting over $9.00 a mcf.

Press release from Marketwire
Talisman Energy Reports Third Quarter Cash Flow Up 29% to $902 Million

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Nov. 2, 2011) - Talisman Energy Inc. (TSX:TLM) (NYSE:TLM) reported its operating and financial results for the third quarter of 2011. The company is reporting under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), and all values in this release are in US$ unless otherwise stated.

Cash flow(1) was $902 million, up 29% from a year ago.
Net income was $521 million, up 48% over 2010.
Earnings from operations1 increased 38%, to $165 million.
Production was 400,000 boe/d. Production from ongoing operations is up 10% year to date.
North America shale volumes have doubled year over year.
Talisman achieved record gas volumes in Southeast Asia, with prices averaging $9.40/mcf.
The Kitan project offshore Timor-Leste/Australia started up in October, adding 40,000 bbls/d (10,000 bbls/d net).


Production
September 30 Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
2011 2010 2011 2010
Oil and liquids (mbbls/d) 
North America 23 21 22 24
North Sea 81 104 100 110
Southeast Asia 34 38 33 40
Other 23 13 22 14
Total liquids (mbbls/d) 161 176 177 188

Natural gas (mmcf/d) 
North America 865 750 875 778
North Sea 13 106 50 102
Southeast Asia 522 512 505 491
Other 35 – 33 –
Total natural gas (mmcf/d) 1,435 1,368 1,463 1,371
Total (mboe/d) 400 404 421 416
Assets sold – North America (mboe/d) – 15 – 33
Production from ongoing operations (mboe/d) 400 389 421 38


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## Toronto.gal

al42 said:


> Buy order just got triggered @ 11.48 for a few shares.


Few shares at this price?

I bought too on the NYSE and already 3%+ in after-hours trading. I bought them just before markets closed.


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## al42

Toronto.gal said:


> Few shares at this price?
> 
> I bought too on the NYSE and already 3%+ in after-hours trading. I bought them just before markets closed.



Great..hopefully it goes up a few more points by the morning. Will be a quick flip for me.


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## KaeJS

I am screwed. The company is a great company, but the market hates the stock. 

Currently down $400+. 

Not sure what I'm going to do yet. 

I like TLM. I believe in TLM. I also believe the market hates it. 

I could go balls out risky and buy another 1000 shares to average down, but I'm not sure how big my cojones are.

It's at least a $14 stock, which means it should easily resurface to $12. If I can get an ACB of $11.70, I should be good.


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## newbie

KaeJS said:


> I am screwed. The company is a great company, but the market hates the stock.
> 
> Currently down $400+.
> 
> Not sure what I'm going to do yet.
> 
> I like TLM. I believe in TLM. I also believe the market hates it.
> 
> I could go balls out risky and buy another 1000 shares to average down, but I'm not sure how big my cojones are.
> 
> It's at least a $14 stock, which means it should easily resurface to $12. If I can get an ACB of $11.70, I should be good.


K
it really seems that ur not listening.
the NG price has an effect on the stock price.
nevertheless the correlation between NG price and TLM are absolutely different.
i am not sure if u understand the word derisking , which is something i have been preaching about till now.
these stocks will suffer the most since it is producing a depressed commodity.
if ur uncomfortable then sell it


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## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> Few shares at this price?
> 
> I bought too on the NYSE and already 3%+ in after-hours trading. I bought them just before markets closed.


been busy all day with the NG Carnage on the NYmex.
i amsure u know what u are doing


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## KaeJS

newbie,

I understand that the natgas price is hurting the stock.

But, as mentioned above, they are selling natgas in asia for $9.40.

Plus, what about their oil exposure? I still don't see this decline as justifiable.

However, my emotions are setting in and I am getting scared sh*tless now. I feel like if I sell, I will be selling at the bottom, and I feel like if I hold it, I will continue to get raped.


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## newbie

KaeJS said:


> newbie,
> 
> I understand that the natgas price is hurting the stock.
> 
> But, as mentioned above, they are selling natgas in asia for $9.40.
> 
> Plus, what about their oil exposure? I still don't see this decline as justifiable.
> 
> However, my emotions are setting in and I am getting scared sh*tless now. I feel like if I sell, I will be selling at the bottom, and I feel like if I hold it, I will continue to get raped.


K
u r mixing apples with oranges here.
NG price in asia or europe has nothing to do with NG price in NA.
if i knew more about options i would try and tell you how to hedge against losses by protecting ur assets with puts if ur so scared it will tank like a brick.
i buy puts because i think that the SP will tank like a brick and that is what i did with CHK.
take NG catclysmic price lowest ever in a decade out of the equation , take ur feelings out of it also.
if i had my feelings interfere all the time with my large loss atm with FAZ and TZA i would commit suicide right.
u have a very small amount of shares only 1000 right?
if Mr. humble pie is willing to teach you how to hedge through options that is a good strategy.
i mentioned to u during the day that TLM and everything else will nosedive if major derisking happens in the mkt.
it wont loose 50% because of NG price.
if u cant control ur emotions then do what ur gut tells u and dont listen to anyone.
do ur own DD.

p.s we r going through an index rebalancing also right?


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## KaeJS

newbie said:


> K
> u have a very small amount of shares only 1000 right?
> if Mr. humble pie is willing to teach you how to hedge through options that is a good strategy.
> i mentioned to u during the day that TLM and everything else will nosedive if major derisking happens in the mkt.
> it wont loose 50% because of NG price.


1000 shares position is large for my portfolio. Especially since this position is fully financed by borrowed money at 4.5% interest.

This is why I am worried. I am paying $1.50/day just to hold this thing, and then losing $$$ on top of that.


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## newbie

KaeJS said:


> 1000 shares position is large for my portfolio. Especially since this position is fully financed by borrowed money at 4.5% interest.
> 
> This is why I am worried. I am paying $1.50/day just to hold this thing, and then losing $$$ on top of that.


i thought it was ur money.
well i guess ur lesson is learned right .
never bet too high with borrowed money.
In all honesty K my main concern for u now is mkt derisking.
if u cant average down to try and break even then i really cant think of anything else than for u to stop and think what is best for you.
i mentioned that it will go lower but how low no one can tell.
If one of their assets has an accident like CNQ the stock can and will plunge.
maybe that is the first stock that u will have to decide to either cut ur losses and move on , average down and break even or Hold.
remember that i am bearish overall so i am somewhat biased.
mostly bearish on the finacial index , but if that goes , the rest goes with it.
do ur own DD
GL

p.s
IMHO this depressed price is not a long term event (marketwise).
all commitments for companies involved with NG are basically set for 2012.
the average price for NG was severely slashed by GS to an average of 3.1 for the year and they are maintaining their forecast for 2013.
i am still trying to figure u out .
are u a long or short term trader?


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## Betzy

Simple PUT purchase will let you sleep at night. Buy a put right at the money so its reasonable in cost. Then you limit the amount you are down on the stock to that strike price. It's going to cost you $0.59 for a March 11.00 strike price put as of end of day today.
If the stock continues to fall the put will gain in value thus limiting your loss to what you have right now. Ideally next time you would by the option when you buy the stock, thus the put price is more reasonable.
Just so you feel better in losing company i just bought a Jan 13 call with 10.00 strike price for $3.10 this morning and it sits at $2.63 right now. I do have almost a year to wait for it to come back into the money.


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## KaeJS

newbie said:


> are u a long or short term trader?


Depends what I'm buying and if I used borrowed money.

I bought a slashed stock producing a depressed commodity on borrowed money. That means this trade was/is a short term trade.


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## newbie

Betzy said:


> Simple PUT purchase will let you sleep at night. Buy a put right at the money so its reasonable in cost. Then you limit the amount you are down on the stock to that strike price. It's going to cost you $0.59 for a March 11.00 strike price put as of end of day today.
> If the stock continues to fall the put will gain in value thus limiting your loss to what you have right now. Ideally next time you would by the option when you buy the stock, thus the put price is more reasonable.
> Just so you feel better in losing company i just bought a Jan 13 call with 10.00 strike price for $3.10 this morning and it sits at $2.63 right now. I do have almost a year to wait for it to come back into the money.


there u go K
someone nice enough that knows how to hedge just explained us
thks Betzy.
i myself am doing options on NG companies but Puts only Cuz somehow Ng traders kinda knew where NG companies were headed but they would not just implode


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## jtc

Bought 500 @ $11.50 and I'll be in for another 1000 if it hits $11.00

Lots of takeover speculation on the stockhouse forums. Starting to draw attention:

http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/january-2012/market-call-tonight-january-16-2012/#clip601994


To be taken with a grain of salt, but still interesting none the less.


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## humble_pie

Betzy said:


> Simple PUT purchase will let you sleep at night. Buy a put right at the money so its reasonable in cost. Then you limit the amount you are down on the stock to that strike price. It's going to cost you $0.59 for a March 11.00 strike price put as of end of day today.



alas, this is not really a practical suggestion. Setting up march 11 put is going to cost $590 plus commission for 1000 shares. Protection will last only 2 months. The gas glut is predicted for maybe a few years. Looking out just one year, maintaining protective at the money puts in place will cost something like $3,600 per annum.

totally absurd. Normally, investors do not buy protective puts alone for individual stocks because the cost is obviously too high. Normally, they insure a portfolio or part of a portfolio with an index put.

exceptions are skilled traders like lephturn who puts on collars to guarantee risk-free high dividends in his rrsp. Private wealth managers are also fond of collarization these days because a collared bank or a collared bce, although it is infinitely boring, nevertheless has a guaranteed payout that's a lot better than a treasury bill. This approach is unique to our times of ultra low interest rates.


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## jtc

[please remove]


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## Toronto.gal

*HP:* thanks for the clarification.


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## al42

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Energy+firms+ripe+takeover/6012410/story.html


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## newbie

jtc said:


> Bought 500 @ $11.50 and I'll be in for another 1000 if it hits $11.00
> 
> Lots of takeover speculation on the stockhouse forums. Starting to draw attention:
> 
> http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/january-2012/market-call-tonight-january-16-2012/#clip601994
> 
> 
> To be taken with a grain of salt, but still interesting none the less.


this is old news
fwiw
this company is extremely undervalued just for its assets


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## newbie

humble_pie said:


> alas, this is not really a practical suggestion. Setting up march 11 put is going to cost $590 plus commission for 1000 shares. Protection will last only 2 months. The gas glut is predicted for maybe a few years. Looking out just one year, maintaining protective at the money puts in place will cost something like $3,600 per annum.
> 
> totally absurd. Normally, investors do not buy protective puts alone for individual stocks because the cost is obviously too high. Normally, they insure a portfolio or part of a portfolio with an index put.
> 
> exceptions are skilled traders like lephturn who puts on collars to guarantee risk-free high dividends in his rrsp. Private wealth managers are also fond of collarization these days because a collared bank or a collared bce, although it is infinitely boring, nevertheless has a guaranteed payout that's a lot better than a treasury bill. This approach is unique to our times of ultra low interest rates.


like i said and i always admit my comments , i know jack bout options.
nonetheless ur comments about few years glut is way out of whack.
this is a temporary situation , meaning 2012.
dont count on Ng going to 6 bux next year.
this is a very complex mkt.
i can see that u know about options but u dunno bout NG.
just my .......................02 cents


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## Jungle

Ok would you choose Encana or TLM at these prices? This is getting very interesting..


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## Toronto.gal

I made my choice a quarter ago: TLM given all the obvious [oil to name just one]. But ECA will make my list eventually too; perhaps sooner rather than later.


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## Eder

I picked Encana for a few reasons, but mainly for their LNG port/pipeline joint venture and a decent dividend payout (if they don't cut it )

I agree Talisman looks great on paper but the fact that they are almost 50% oil but still managed to fall on their face tells me their management is inept. They also have substantial geopolitical exposure risk.


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## Toronto.gal

Eder said:


> still managed to fall on their face tells me their management is inept.


No argument, but what do you say about ECA's failed 5.4 billion joint venture with PetroChina last June?

TLM also has a more reasonable dividend [to share price].


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## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> No argument, but what do you say about ECA's failed 5.4 billion joint venture with PetroChina last June?
> 
> TLM also has a more reasonable dividend [to share price].


i completely and fully agree with you T.GAl
i am almost there with CCL
TLM eventually will be taken out.
on the note , i had to cover my FAZ today


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## newbie

Eder said:


> I picked Encana for a few reasons, but mainly for their LNG port/pipeline joint venture and a decent dividend payout (if they don't cut it )
> 
> I agree Talisman looks great on paper but the fact that they are almost 50% oil but still managed to fall on their face tells me their management is inept. They also have substantial geopolitical exposure risk.


THE LNG history started with someone else .
would u care to elaborate who catually has the contract in their hand?
lets see what u come up with now.
just waiting here.
i aint holding neither ......yet.
bu the way my CHK puts are bright and shiny knowneldgeable man
sorry i have to go because i am making a killing seeing the slaughter on CAL14.
do u actually know what that is ?


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## Eder

Toronto.gal said:


> No argument, but what do you say about ECA's failed 5.4 billion joint venture with PetroChina last June?
> 
> TLM also has a more reasonable dividend [to share price].


I can't argue with you there, both companies are under performing with pathetic management but at lucrative entry price. 
I'll let you know in 2015 if I still feel the same way haha.


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## HaroldCrump

TLM just hit $12


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## Jungle

Must be Newbie doing all that buying. Stock is up 3% now.


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## Toronto.gal

You forgot me.


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## Jungle

lol I guess you spent all that money in your avatar again! 
Just be glad you didn't buy google.


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## Betzy

Bought 10 option contracts for 2013 exp 10.00 let it rise, let it rise


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## newbie

Jungle said:


> Must be Newbie doing all that buying. Stock is up 3% now.


lol
no it aint me jungle.
nut i am sure KJS is feeling better.
i said and quote me i do not want to hold equities with a 10 foot pole, except CCL


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## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> You forgot me.


then u r up my dear friend
congrats one more time.


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## newbie

KaeJS said:


> 1000 shares position is large for my portfolio. Especially since this position is fully financed by borrowed money at 4.5% interest.
> 
> This is why I am worried. I am paying $1.50/day just to hold this thing, and then losing $$$ on top of that.


so u feel better now?
u are possibly holding a very good stock and u may not even know why.
GL anyway.
next time dont buy volume on borrowed money.
JMO


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## KaeJS

Feeling worse because I sold it at $11.65.


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## Toronto.gal

Don't KaeJS!

In this irrational market, you did what you had to.


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## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> Don't KaeJS!
> 
> In this irrational market, you did what you had to.


fully agree.
move on youngling.
i am at loss on FAZ , and trust i am not holding 100 shares.
sometimes we loose right?
lets see how much of a bull this thin mkt has in its blood.
VIX at lowest since august last year.
volume is ludicrous.
HFT at its high lol


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## Dmoney

KaeJS said:


> Feeling worse because I sold it at $11.65.


Bought at $13.13, selling calls on the way down. 

My ACB is $12.02 now, $11.89 if I count the dividend. Hopefully I can sell above $13, but if not I'll keep reducing my ACB until someone takes it off my hands. Here's hoping for no summer... gotta drive those NG prices up.


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## jtc

In my TFSA, I own 2000 shares @ $11.60. 

I have made really decent cash bouncing this stock over the past few weeks. I expect TLM to see a huge spike next week when earnings are released. 


Is this a good time to buy/hold? Any thoughts?


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## phrenk

I think that unless you've made huge profits in the past 3 years with your TFSA contributions, holding $23K of one stock in your TFSA account is a big mistake.


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## Betzy

jtc said:


> In my TFSA, I own 2000 shares @ $11.60.
> 
> I have made really decent cash bouncing this stock over the past few weeks. I expect TLM to see a huge spike next week when earnings are released.
> 
> 
> Is this a good time to buy/hold? Any thoughts?


Well I just sold my 10 calls that I bought a month ago to the day, made a 34.9% profit. Going to keep eyes on the same options and get back in when it settles down from this latest spike up...


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## Toronto.gal

Congrats Betzy!  

Made similar returns [per account] when adding all combined TLM standard trades in a month [more work, I know].


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## Betzy

Congrats to you also Tgal, more than one way to skin the grenn
What are your thoughts on Nat gas? I am also playing HND on the reverse side...


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## Toronto.gal

Big drop on HND.

I'm basically sticking to common-sense and not ignoring the historically low [share] prices. Long-term perspective is bullish.


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## humble_pie

*talisman*

i must be dreaming. Talisman, my homely, knob-kneed, also-ran energy stock that nobody else ever wanted, is putting on the bling. Colombia kurdistan & montney are baubles now.

tlm recently switched to paying dividends in USD, so to avoid FX fees on divs it's a good idea to keep it in US side of an account.


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## humble_pie

thank you mover moppets.

but U know what ? i did search for this thread first.

i searched under talisman. Nada.
then i searched under tlm. Nada.
nyet to you :tongue-new: said the cmf search engine.
i was logged in, too.

so what could a poor pie do, except start another thread.


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## HaroldCrump

_homely, knob-kneed, also-ran_ ? You are breaking my heart 

It has been a great performer this year, up nearly 40% since the lows of $9 or so barely a few weeks ago.
I have always considered TLM as having great potential.
It is a good way to play the volatile regions of the world, incl. Kurdistan.
Their assets in the south sea and the far east will yield fortune over time.

It's price volatility is actually an asset, not a hinderance.

Options are fairly liquid, too, boosting the yield of someone willing to buy and hold.

To me, Talisman is the kind of choclate milk loving girlfriend that KaeJS wishes he had ;o)


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## humble_pie

i think short US jan 15 or 16 calls might be conservative enough. Premiums are still too low, though. It's those knobby knees. Nobody will pay for them, at least not yet.

i've sold not-conservative jan 12 puts. Premiums are better.


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## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> i think short US jan 15 or 16 calls might be conservative enough. Premiums are still too low, though. It's those knobby knees. Nobody will pay for them, at least not yet.


Premiums seem to nearly double by going out just 2 extra months (Mar. 2013)
I am looking at MX bids right now.

$15 at 0.73 for March vs. 0.48 for Jan
$16 at 0.46 for March vs. 0.27 for Jan

This is after hours of course so may not be entirely accurate.

Also, $15 is too close IMHO.
The slightest evidence of QE - III can easily send this stock up another 25%.


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## humble_pie

i meant US options. Translated into CAD the strike prices are slightly higher. But i agree that $15 in either currency is a bit too close.

curious: why would one particularly choose montreal instead of US talisman options. Although montreal is surprisingly solid open interest-wise in tlm.


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## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> i meant US options. Translated into CAD the strike prices are slightly higher. But i agree that $15 in either currency is a bit too close.
> curious: why would one particularly choose montreal instead of US talisman options. Although montreal is surprisingly solid open interest-wise in tlm.


In the case of a covered short call, US options are perhaps better because the stock should ideally be held on the US side.
US doesn't have the March expiry though, but on the MX side, the Mar. premiums are a nice spread over the Jan. for going out only 2 additional months.

For example, the $15 bid for Jan on MX is 46c. and in US is 70c. However, the $15 bid on MX for March is 74c.
Given the Grand Canyon wide spreads, it should be relatively easy to sell the March higher than the current 74c. bid on MX, esp. if the stk moves up further over the next day or two.

Also, the spreads on the US side, while tighter than MX, are still pretty wide.
Maybe not the Grand Canyon, but certainly Chimney Rock wide.


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## humble_pie

in tlm i bought another 500 sh & sld 5 US jan 15s this am.

a principal reason why i'm avoiding tlm march is that open interest is likely to be thin. 

januaries are heavily-traded, people will be winding up their 2012 positions. But after that, not much. Also lettuce remember that by end-of-year in december, the seps will have expired & the junes will be open & trading. I kind of think people will leapfrog over the marches, although US markets will open march series soon.

open interest is always important to me; i avoid options with low open interest.

i see talisman as a way to benefit from the kurdimir well with far less risk than western zagros. The problem i have with the small kurdistan plays is that i can't yet get a grip on the politics. For example, couple weeks ago kurdish nationalists in turkey blew up the kurdistan-turkey pipeline. But why on earth would they be doing that ????? it's totally in the interests of semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region to have that pipeline enlarged. It's totally regressive to blow it up ... so i can't really piece this politics together easily.

by contrast it's relatively easy to grasp the politic of east africa because the heavy hands & footprints of washington/london are so clear. One can almost hear hilary clinton telling the world what she wants to see in that region. Oil plays a role in the story, but from the west's pov there's no confusion or contradiction.


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## humble_pie

ontario teachers' has been buying talisman.

also a hedge fund.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...an-be-the-petro-canada-sequel/article4497643/


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## Toronto.gal

*"They were buying as the stock plumbed lows not seen in three years"* - in fact, prices not seen since 2004!

Wonder how investors that punished this stock in Q2 feel now.


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## Toronto.gal

The stock is nearing USD$15; up an impressive 50% since May/2012.

Talisman CEO John Manzoni steps down; Hal Kvisle takes helm
http://business.financialpost.com/2...ohn-manzoni-steps-down-hal-kvisle-takes-helm/


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## Doryman

http://business.financialpost.com/2...nce-big-oil-find-in-colombia/?__lsa=b219-5068

Good news for Talisman. Anyone see this stock rising from here?


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## HaroldCrump

*Talisman Energy shares jump as Repsol said to be considering bid after YPF payout*

Last week, I had bought a stack of $11 calls when stock dropped to around $10.70, very near its 5 yr. low.
Should perhaps have bought a lottery ticket at the same time as well ;o)


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## humble_pie

HaroldCrump said:


> *Talisman Energy shares jump as Repsol said to be considering bid after YPF payout*
> 
> Last week, I had bought a stack of $11 calls when stock dropped to around $10.70, very near its 5 yr. low.
> Should perhaps have bought a lottery ticket at the same time as well ;o)



veree smart! this is probably the best way to play this chronic disappointer.

are you holding any shares? what i mean is, in the pure play, one would never hold any shares. One would fool around in the options depending on which way the frequent on-again-off-again talisman takeover rumours are blowing ...

(signed)
crumb who is far too dumb to pull off such a strategy


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## HaroldCrump

I am not holding any shares any more.
Back when the stock used to be upwards of $12, there was enough premium in covered calls.
My ACB was around $10, and I used to sell covered calls $2 to $5 above market price.
My last set of $15 covered calls expired this January, and I promptly sold all my shares at around $12.50.

For the last 6 months, I have been totally out of Talisman, until last week when I bought these calls.
I didn't know about this deal, of course


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## humble_pie

HaroldCrump said:


> I am not holding any shares any more ...
> 
> For the last 6 months, I have been totally out of Talisman, until last week when I bought these calls.
> I didn't know about this deal, of course



i've been outta the shares too. I did US options but even they were not especially appetizing.

fooling around just in the options in order to take advantage of the frequent talisman takeover rumours never occurred to me, no doubt because i'm only a plain oatmeal kind of biscuit

actually the approach would work for any public company that is a popular takeover target & they are saying that merger mania is going to increase, because earnings aren't growing so companies have to appear to "grow" through acquisitions. I'm sure there are pro option traders working the bejesus out of this strategy.


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## AMABILE

will repsol finally take talisman over ? 
at what price?....they're saying between $6 to $8
but it's now trading at $5.78.( below $6.00)


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## Toronto.gal

Anyone bought TLM @ $4+ after Wednesday's article? No worries, they could drop back to $4 again.  How many talks have there been already over the years? 

There may be other suitors, who may offer a more generous premium than the potential '118%'? [from yesterday's $4.25 closing]. LOL.


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## HaroldCrump

If I had a dime for every time TLM has been in takeover talks...I would be here:


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## Toronto.gal

^ I thought u were more humble Harold. 

And if I were to add all the dividends + trading profits - losses x 5 years, I am actually here, where I want to be: each:










Seriously, some companies have taught me very valuable investment lessons, and this certainly has been one of them!


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## webber22

And if we were to add all the trades in the COS thread and all the dividends + trading profits - losses x 5 years, were are actually here


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## HaroldCrump

Repsol winning to pay nearly $7B for an oil & gas company could be a glimmer of hope that this sector is not entirely dead...


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## Toronto.gal

*webber:* TLM has always been a very volatile stock, so I have been an active trader of it, not just a buy/holder [COS is mostly for dividend lovers]. Oil is the most traded commodity for a reason. 

*Harold:* My thoughts exactly when I read the Dec.9th article. 

Did the French really offer $17B for TLM in Jan.? There had been so many different reports.


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## Butters

webber22 said:


> And if we were to add all the trades in the COS thread and all the dividends + trading profits - losses x 5 years, were are actually here
> 
> View attachment 2905


you can still afford that? must be nice


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## HaroldCrump

How we all financed our retirement & travel using oil stocks like TLM, COS & BTE...


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## Toronto.gal

BTE for retirement - maybe?  I figured the dividends alone [if unchanged] will cover nearly 1/2 my investment in the next 5 years. Then I'll be out of commodities.

Seriously, this has been an epic crash, but hopefully we'll all be ok. in due time.


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## My Own Advisor

Toronto.gal said:


> BTE for retirement - maybe?  I figured the dividends alone [if unchanged] will cover nearly 1/2 my investment in the next 5 years. Then I'll be out of commodities.
> 
> Seriously, this has been an epic crash, but hopefully we'll all be ok. in due time.


+1

I share your thoughts. Great time to buy, guts to hold on and stick to the plan, time will tell...


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## Toronto.gal

To be fair here, excluding the volatility of TLM that had been going on for years, and way b4 the current oil crash, didn't most other oil stocks do rather well up to June/July? In fact, some were on a tear since the summer of 2013.


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## doctrine

$9.33 a share.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/talisman-agrees-to-8-3b-takeover-by-spain-s-repsol-1.2874486

56% premium to closing despite two big days, and 135% premium to the 52 week low of $3.96, which I think is indicative of how beaten down the sector is.


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## Toronto.gal

doctrine said:


> $9.33 a share/56% premium to closing despite two big days, and 135% premium to the 52 week low of $3.96, which *I think is indicative of how beaten down the sector is.*


Of course the sector is beaten down, but TLM was in a class of its own.

How pleasantly surprised I am. Had expected $8. Pity though, that this deal was not made back in the summer, but can't complain & pleased to have held onto the shares I held.

Now looking for another bargain - maybe back to GTE.


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## gardner

Toronto.gal said:


> Had expected $8.


Well, it's $US 8.00. It's only the 1.16 exchange rate makes it look like 9.33.

This is exactly why I am totally afraid of dipping into the oil patch any deeper than I am. These beaten-down outfits are going to be sold off for a song and I'm going to get bupkes.


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## Toronto.gal

^ I realize the price is USD$8, but I had expected CAD$8 after conversion. Considering the company's debt/closing prices/oil crash, etc., it wasn't really sold for a song. Those who may have held this at higher prices than offered, would still be better off than having held other names, and would still be able to recover with others considering the sector prices at present time. 

There are big risks for both the acquiree & acquired to always keep in mind.


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## AMABILE

so why is talisman not at $9.33 ?


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## HaroldCrump

AMABILE said:


> so why is talisman not at $9.33 ?


Federal govt. still needs to approve the deal under the "Net Benefit" criteria.


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## gibor365

HaroldCrump said:


> Federal govt. still needs to approve the deal under the "Net Benefit" criteria.


So, if you buy now and deal is approved , you gain 5.5% ...Anyone betting?!


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## HaroldCrump

I think it should be a pretty safe bet.
Although it could take a while to finalize everything and receive cash in your account.


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## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> So, *if you buy now* and deal is approved , *you gain 5.5% ...Anyone betting?!*


I would say your desired bet is a little late, and for the mere 5%+, not worth the wait considering all the good sales out there. At current levels, consider also what the downside could be, if the deal were to fall apart [+5% vs. -50%, the latter representing a 14 year low, which had been the more reasonable bet]. 

Yesterday, you could have had 10% [never mind 5%] on a single day, not weeks, by having bought a number of other oil stocks [courtesy of the takeover announcement, but not TLM, as it had surged 50% in pre-trading hours].

Given the reaction to the offer, chances are more likely that it will receive approval [from not just the gov.], but it's not 100% yet.


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## HaroldCrump

There are hedge funds & ETFs that specialize in this type of arbitrage i.e. buying shares of companies in the process of buyouts by weighing probabilities of success.
This is already a crowded space, esp. given the current low yield environment.


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## gibor365

> Yesterday, you could have had 10% [never mind 5%] on a single day, not weeks, by having bought a number of other oil stocks


the key word is "could have"  and you could've loss 10% in a single day..... with TLM is pretty sure bet ... it's like short term US$ GIC that pays 5%


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## Toronto.gal

^ With respect to 'could have', my point had been same as yours, actually.

Yesterday [2day as well for that matter] was a clearer day than what will be in weeks ahead.


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## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> it's like short term US$ GIC that *pays 5%*


In a few weeks. But compare the movements of TLM since the takeover announcement vs. other oil stocks [there is good reason why TLM hasn't moved much, ie, already up 100%+/no competing offer as yet]. I rest my case.


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## sags

I read that CPPIB is interested...........is it too late for a competing offer ?


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## sags

You are doing well T. Gal..............is this the kind of market that suits you ?...........


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## Toronto.gal

*1st question* - unlikely there will be a higher offer. But anything could happen; TLM could make a huge oil discovery even before the deal is sealed. :biggrin: Remember when PTR abandoned a $5.5 billion deal with ECA in 2011? 

Rather than looking for the pennies away from the current offer or potential higher ones [as I write this, just CAD$0.29 cents less], a sale of the shares could have already been invested in other battered oil stocks. 

*2nd question *- if you mean volatile markets, then the answer is yes.


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## AMABILE

i sold for $9.28 to-day
was this a good or bad move ?


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## Toronto.gal

^ What do you think? Regardless of your purchase price [hopefully your ACB was lower], you sold near the offer price. And if you had losses, you can recover elsewhere.


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