# Massive new immigration



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Back in February the government announced updates to their immigration plans. Planning to admit 1.3 million people over the next 3 years. Today additionally, Trudeau announced big increase in temporary foreign workers to use migrants to fill more job openings.

I like immigration, but it should be at a consistent level over the years and should have high qualification standards. The pandemic interrupted immigration though so it's hard to tell how we're currently trending... I can't tell if these numbers are unusually high or not.

What I really hate is when industries lobby the government to relax qualifications, to admit lower wage people so that companies can find cheap labour without having to pay normal Canadian salaries. It depresses all of our wages, and unfortunately, I think what's happening today is driven by the greed of businesses.

On top of that, labour shortages are probably somewhat due to COVID health concerns and temporary stimulus-driven booms. It might be a policy mistake to aggressively expand immigration to "keep up" as those concerns may naturally ease on their own, leaving with us way too much immigration. That could depress the job market.

Does anyone have any good articles that analyze the current immigration plans? I'd like to read some analysis from people who have expertise in this.


----------



## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

Not sure, but I recall Ontario hospitality industry quoting something like short 200k of workers in terms of vacant positions that operators are trying to fill. . 

In my opinion that is because a lot of these are low wage long irregular hour jobs, subject to the capricious whims of the scheduling manager and to try to survive you need the tip money that comes with a lot of those jobs.

Or the jobs are seasonal. Make beds and keep grounds at a summer resort sorta gigs, etc. 

The former workers have not all evaporated. They have moved on through pandemic to better jobs. 

And for a lot of front facing jobs, they are not the easiest for recent immigrants to do and haul in the needed tips.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I think the only downside of rapid unplanned immigration is our ability to grow the housing stock quickly enough to house them.


----------



## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

In our province we have a very significant challenge in the health care sector. Retirement is one issue.

As big an issue is health care professionals exiting the profession or exiting the province. Oddly enough it has actually been encouraged by a Government that has been threatening layoffs and salary cuts for several years now. Not to mention declining working conditions in our hospitals.

There is a move afoot to make it less cumbersome for foreign health care professionals to get certified by their respective self governing bodies/colleges.

We desperately need them and that need will only grow over the next several years.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

There is a severe labor shortage in the construction trades, especially for the type of work often done in other countries.

Example......it is very expensive and difficult to find people who can install stucco on the outside of a home or tile work.

Our next door neighbors arrived from Brazil 2 years ago with almost nothing. Now the guy works in the drywall trade and his wife is a PSW.

They have 2 vehicles, and are slowly building a life in Canada. Their kids are delightful......respectful and cheerful.

Plus I love when they BBQ outside........it smells so darn good.


----------



## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

sags said:


> There is a severe labor shortage in the construction trades, especially for the type of work often done in other countries.
> 
> Example......it is very expensive and difficult to find people who can install stucco on the outside of a home or tile work.
> 
> ...


Absolutely. Our son in law has a construction firm and wholesale business. He cannot find enough skilled workers. He is turning away projects. Finishing carpenters, tile work, etc. Alberta and BC,

He is now looking to hire some folks from Ukraine.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

I saw a billboard sign downtown last week advertising for construction workers at a quarry.

Laborers and heavy equipment operators.....starting employment package at $45 an hour.

When our son took his heavy equipment training and certification a couple years ago, there were only 2 people in the class.

Young people don't want to do that kind of work.


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

ian said:


> Absolutely. Our son in law has a construction firm and wholesale business. He cannot find enough skilled workers. He is turning away projects. Finishing carpenters, tile work, etc. Alberta and BC,
> 
> He is now looking to hire some folks from Ukraine.


Ukraine will need those workers to rebuild after the war Ukraine. Draining Ukraine of human resource is not helping. 
Plus Ukraine is not allowing to leave any male under 60.


----------



## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Ukraine will need those workers to rebuild after the war Ukraine. Draining Ukraine of human resource is not helping.
> Plus Ukraine is not allowing to leave any male under 60.


These are people who have already left the Ukraine and currently living/working in Europe but are underemployed.


----------



## richno (Aug 15, 2016)

andrewf said:


> I think the only downside of rapid unplanned immigration is our ability to grow the housing stock quickly enough to house them.


This is what I worry about. 

How much it will drive up the cost of housing.

If some newcomers were interested in getting into the construction trades… that would be helpful.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Ponderling said:


> Not sure, but I recall Ontario hospitality industry quoting something like short 200k of workers in terms of vacant positions that operators are trying to fill. .


Industry frequently says they are "short" of workers. But perhaps they really mean that they *refuse to pay* decent salaries for these 200,000 people. No doubt that sometimes there really is a shortage of skilled people but I strongly suspect that many times, the people are there... you just have to pay them enough $.

Say the market rate for that job is $25/hr and your business puts up a sign saying you've got this job available for $15/hr. And nobody takes it at the poor rate. Now you lobby the government because "we have a shortage of 200k workers, they are nowhere to be found!"


----------



## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

It depends on the industry, occupation.

My daughter and husband are paying premium wages in order to attract qualified workers. Their hourly wages are a far cry from $15 or $20 hr. They are reaching out to females in the industry. They tend to be much easier on the tools and the vehicles.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Yea........about $80 an hour in our son's case with wages and benefits.


----------



## undersc0re (Oct 7, 2017)

I think inflation is causing these problems more than the fact that young people refuse to do these jobs, the money they make is not going very far these days. What is the root cause of this problem, other than blaming it on covid. Government needs to help make it easier to employ people in these low income jobs as well as many others of course, doctors are a huge problem in British Columbia and they are not addressing these problems properly for long term.


----------



## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

At the lower end of the pay scale there's no shortage of workers that I can see. When you apply for a job on Indeed, it tells you how many other people applied. I got a 3-month contract job this spring and 55 people applied. They hired 2. It does pay $17/hr rather than $15 but still, not exactly a prestigious position. 

I recently applied for a job that is 8 hours a week (4 hours a day for 2 days a week). Not a very appealing proposition to most, I would guess. 26 people have applied.


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

The new immigration targets are necessary to maintain a stable work force. Canada's fertility rate in 2019 was 1.47 and 1.4 in 2020. It is likely to either keep falling or flatten out, but it means we are well below the 2.1/2.2 rate needed to maintain our population. We need 0.8% x 37 million + 300k skilled immigrants just to stay even, and with the surge of boomers now aged 58-76 leaving the workforce in droves, even more to sustain the workforce. It is thus not out of line to have an immigration target exceeding 400+k per year, depending on the proportion of those immigrants being workers in the labour force. Canada is rightfully emphasizing workers, accompanying non-working children and refugees aside. We need at least 80% of them to be contributors in the labour force.

Added: In our region, employers cannot get enough workers in the service and construction industries. Projects are stretched out and the hospitality industry cannot run at physical capacity due to shortages of workers. Part of the problem is wages not keeping up with inflation and the inability of a $17/hr worker not being able to afford a one bedroom apartment but that is not the only reason. There isn't rental space available.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Young adults need to get busy or maybe live beside a railroad track.

As one lady who had 6 kids said.........the railroad track was behind our house near a crossing, and every morning a train went through at 5 a.m. blasting it's horn.

It was too early to get up and too late to go back to sleep, so........


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

AltaRed said:


> needed to maintain our population


And who said Canada needs 35 million people? It can be twenty or fifteen.
I suggest to bring the exact number of immigrants, equal to houses built to accommodate all of them. There’s no need to bring people into already overstretched housing market. As an alternative government should regulate residential property ownership, one per family.


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

There will be close to a proportional decline in national GDP with population reductions, i,e GDP per person is relatively inelastic. Those that tend to contribute the most to GDP simply move on to greener pastures when the customer base withers on the vine exacerbating population declines. Outright migration has already become a significant factor in some EU countries in particular.

Japan, and most of Eastern and Southern Europe, with a few exceptions in Eastern Europe are in economic decline and it is particularly acute in those, such as Japan, which are intolerant of immigration.

The solution to Canada's housing crisis is more supply, not less immigration.


----------



## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

sags said:


> Young adults need to get busy or maybe live beside a railroad track.
> 
> As one lady who had 6 kids said.........the railroad track was behind our house near a crossing, and every morning a train went through at 5 a.m. blasting it's horn.
> 
> It was too early to get up and too late to go back to sleep, so........


So....

Move.


----------



## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

Is immigration more popular in eastern Canada, excepting Quebec of course? It isn't going down well in western Canada. At least, not with anyone I know.

From my perspective, immigration is a partial success.


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

TomB16 said:


> Is immigration more popular in eastern Canada, excepting Quebec of course? It isn't going down well in western Canada. At least, not with anyone I know.


I've not observed any particular hostility to immigrants (and immigration) on a significant scale in Western Canada, unless it is concentrated in red-neck places. There seems to be more hostility towards our own indigenous groups.


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

TomB16 said:


> Is immigration more popular in eastern Canada, excepting Quebec of course? It isn't going down well in western Canada. At least, not with anyone I know.
> 
> From my perspective, immigration is a partial success.


Majority of Vancouver population is Chinese origin. Europeans origin is minority.


----------



## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Majority of Vancouver population is Chinese origin. Europeans origin is minority.


Ethnic ratios are not the problem.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Majority of Vancouver population is Chinese origin. Europeans origin is minority.


Not correct.



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vancouver


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I didn't find the 2021 census data yet, but for 2016, ethnicity for the Vancouver census region is about the same for European vs Asian origin, i.e. 1.195M European vs 1.128M Asian although there is an odd category of 354k North Americans including 331k Canadians. Chinese specifically are only $499k.

Ethnicity will vary quite a bit amongst the GVR cities in the census area. Richmond, Burnaby and Surrey will be quite different than Vancouver proper, North Vancouver, etc.






Census Profile, 2016 Census - Vancouver [Census metropolitan area], British Columbia and British Columbia [Province]


Statistics Canada's Census Profile presents information from the 2016 Census of Population - Vancouver [Census metropolitan area], British Columbia and British Columbia [Province].




www12.statcan.gc.ca


----------



## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

Census numbers are comically dishonest.

The last reported demographic for SK is 2011 and shows 0.5% of our population is from South Asia. Anyone who has been out of their home in Saskatchewan, even in the small towns, will get a kick out of that ratio.


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

In the 2016 census, 99k of the 1.07M population of SK was shown as Asian. That is just over 9% and I suspect about right. It is likely the most European (white) of all provinces at 759k. There is not much value for immigrants to settle in a place like SK. Hint: A population of 1.18M (2022) kind of says it all.

Census Profile, 2016 Census - Saskatchewan [Province] and Canada [Country] 
and select ethnic origin.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Too bad there isn't more work in Saskatchewan. People can still buy a single family home there for $38,000.

I am tempted to buy one just to say we have a paid off home.






Eatonia, SK Real Estate - 7 Houses for Sale | Point2


You're in the right place for real estate! Browse through our homes for sale in Eatonia, SK. One might be yours!




www.point2homes.com


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

andrewf said:


> Not correct.
> 
> 
> 
> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vancouver


From your link

Today the Chinese are the largest visible ethnic group in the city, with a diverse Chinese-speaking community, and several dialects, including Cantonese and Mandarin.
53 percent of Vancouver's residents do not speak English as their first language.[129] Almost 30 percent of the city's inhabitants are of Chinese heritage.
Other significant Asian ethnic groups in Vancouver include South Asians (6.0%), Filipinos (5.9%), Japanese (1.7%), Korean (1.5%), West Asians (1.4%), as well as sizeable communities of Vietnamese, Indonesians, and Cambodians.

Total visible minority population319,01051.6%

European
Source:[145]297,70048.2%

and this is 2016 data. Now European are fewer


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Maybe look at StatsCan data rather than the often misstated stuff from the lowest common denominator? Chinese, and Asians overall, do NOT exceed those of European origin in the GVR. I already gave you the facts in post #26.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Ukrainiandude said:


> From your link
> 
> Today the Chinese are the largest visible ethnic group in the city, with a diverse Chinese-speaking community, and several dialects, including Cantonese and Mandarin.
> 53 percent of Vancouver's residents do not speak English as their first language.[129] Almost 30 percent of the city's inhabitants are of Chinese heritage.
> ...


There are many viz mins that are not Chinese ancestry as you claimed.


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

andrewf said:


> There are many viz mins that are not Chinese ancestry as you claimed.


By Chinese I meant asia.
The fact is Europeans are visible minority now in Vancouver.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Ukrainiandude said:


> By Chinese I meant asia.


It'd be less embarrassing to just say 'my bad'.


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

andrewf said:


> It'd be less embarrassing to just say 'my bad'.


 whatever.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Ukrainiandude said:


> By Chinese I meant asia.
> The fact is Europeans are visible minority now in Vancouver.


Most vancouverites are likely Canadian. 
I don't imagine there are many Europeans living there.

Also citizenship isn't typically considered "visible minority"


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Ukrainiandude said:


> whatever.


Can I call you Russian?


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

andrewf said:


> Can I call you Russian?


Are not you North Americans consider and call all Eastern Europeans russians already?


----------



## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Care to ask yourself this question first "Do you not consider yourself a North American"?


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Ukrainiandude said:


> Are not you North Americans consider and call all Eastern Europeans russians already?


I don't. 
I'm sure there are ignorant people out there, but I don't know many of them.

But you're the one throwing around some good old casual racism.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Ukrainiandude said:


> From your link
> 
> Today the Chinese are the largest visible ethnic group in the city, with a diverse Chinese-speaking community, and several dialects, including Cantonese and Mandarin.
> 53 percent of Vancouver's residents do not speak English as their first language.[129] Almost 30 percent of the city's inhabitants are of Chinese heritage.
> ...


Most of those "Chinese" aren't Chinese, they're quite often Canadian.
But from the partial data you posted European is clearly the dominant visible ethnic minority.

But to continue "European" isn't an ethnic group, and most people you might class as "European" likely class themselves as Canadian.

A very common attitude is "My parents might be [Chinese, British, German,] but I'm Canadian", I understand that some people, particularly those who consider themselves "European" don't understand. I was actually asked if I was ashamed of who I was, because I'm Canadian, not some faraway country that distant relatives are from.


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> But you're the one throwing around some good old casual racism.


This R word is misused and abused a lot in Canada. Do you know why?

The *Caucasian race* (also *Caucasoid*[a] or *Europid*, *Europoid*)
As you can see Chinese belong to Mongоloid race.
And there is no such race as Canadian.
Ukrainians belong to Europoid race and Aryan sub race.
I don’t discriminate people based on their race, sex, religion or vaccination status.



















https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasian_race


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/*********


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

There is a difference between ethnicity, nationality and race. All different things for different reasons. The thread has gotten off track since UDude seems to have the last word on insisting to be right.


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

AltaRed said:


> There is a difference between ethnicity, nationality and race. All different things for different reasons. The thread has gotten off track since UDude seems to have the last word on insisting to be right.


Thanks for your kind words my friend.
it is not my fault that every single Canadian vigorously fighting “racism“ and yet Canadian school curriculum apparently doesn’t have any information on human races.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Ukrainiandude said:


> This R word is misused and abused a lot in Canada. Do you know why?
> 
> The *Caucasian race* (also *Caucasoid*[a] or *Europid*, *Europoid*)
> As you can see Chinese belong to Mongоloid race.
> ...


Ahh, that's the problem, you're looking at race, I'm looking at nationality, because I honestly don't care about race.

For someone who doesn't discriminate base on race, you seem to really focus on it.

It's really not worth considering, since it doesn't really have any impact on real issues. 
Also not every single Canadian is vigorously fighting racism, some, like Trudeau are working to implement it.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I get a bit twitchy when people bust out the racial taxonomy charts like that. Race is, at best, a loose grouping of ethnicities and not very meaningful. Regardless, 'Chinese' is an ethnicity (Han) or nationality, not a 'race'. One could say East Asian, which is what I think UK Dude meant though it was not clear at the time.


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

andrewf said:


> I get a bit twitchy when people bust out the racial taxonomy charts like that. Race is, at best, a loose grouping of ethnicities and not very meaningful. Regardless, 'Chinese' is an ethnicity (Han) or nationality, not a 'race'. One could say East Asian, which is what I think UK Dude meant though it was not clear at the time.


This conversation started when @TomB16 mentioned 


TomB16 said:


> Is immigration more popular in eastern Canada, excepting Quebec of course? It isn't going down well in western Canada. At least, not with anyone I know.
> 
> From my perspective, immigration is a partial success.


I said that majority of population in Vancouver are of Mongolоid background and over half English is not the first language.
This disproves the claim that immigration is not popular in western Canada.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Ukrainiandude said:


> I said that majority of population in Vancouver are of Mongolоid background and over half English is not the first language.
> This disproves the claim that immigration is not popular in western Canada.


That is perhaps what you meant, but it is not what you said.

I'd also say that it does not follow that immigration is popular because there are many immigrants. Immigration is quite contentious in the US, and they have many immigrants.


----------



## Ukrainiandude (Aug 25, 2020)

andrewf said:


> Immigration is quite contentious in the US, and they have many immigrants.


Sure if you say so.
Could please name one large metropolitan city in the USA to majority of population of which English is not a first language to back up your claim. Thanks.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

What is even your point? It's not the case in Vancouver that the majority are ESL. Even if a majority are visible minority, a good number of those are Canadian born and native English speakers.

I'm not aware of any cities in North America where a majority of the population are not native English speakers, excepting French majority cities like Montreal and Quebec. Toronto maybe comes closest, but even there the majority are native English speakers. Toronto is exceptionally high for immigrant population.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Ukrainiandude said:


> I said that majority of population in Vancouver are of Mongolоid background and over half English is not the first language.


You never said that. But go ahead link to it.



> This disproves the claim that immigration is not popular in western Canada.


BC is BC, which is very politically different than the rest of Western Canada.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrMatt said:


> BC is BC, which is very politically different than the rest of Western Canada.


BC is Western Canada. So is Winnipeg by the way.

Alberta and Saskatchewan don't own the label "Western Canada" though they often act like they do.

12 million people live in Western Canada, and only ~ 6 million live in very conservative regions. *Half the population of Western Canada* is quite moderate on the political spectrum.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

james4beach said:


> BC is Western Canada. So is Winnipeg by the way.
> 
> Alberta and Saskatchewan don't own the label "Western Canada" though they often act like they do.
> 
> 12 million people live in Western Canada, and only ~ 6 million live in very conservative regions. *Half the population of Western Canada* is quite moderate on the political spectrum.


I'd say most of the country is quite moderate on the political spectrum.

But they're not setting agenda. Unless you think systematic racism is a "moderate" position.. I don't I think it's a fringe ideology, that's only recently reared it's head in mainstream politics.


----------

