# What are you 'watching' right now?



## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

There is a thread that asks what you are buying, I am wondering what others are watching? Doesn't everybody have a few or more stocks on a watchlist, waiting for news or a price to buy in at? That sort of thing?

What are you watching and why/for what?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

eyeing gran tierra as a colombia play.

long term i like energy. Shorter term negatives holding me back in gte are:

- energy already large part of portfolio
- rebels caused another explosion on the Andes pipeline during past couple weeks
- i have a belief that energy will sink as spring & summer season approaches (could be dead wrong)
- charts & analysts are saying take it easy in energy.

if i bought GTE it would be on US market & i'd be selling $10 calls about 6 months out.

speculative consideration: victoria gold. Am familiar w this co & understand the stories behind its recent fairly extreme ups & downs. Bought some at .84 last week, today vit is rising past .90 but the short-term recovery is not over imho.


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## slacker (Mar 8, 2010)

I'm watching for a time to sell BP, and find something better for my 5% allocation to "speculation".


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*natural gas*

I already have good exposure to natural gas by way of pipelines and former Canroys, but am thinking of a more direct approach. 

On Feb 14 Larry Berman spent a few minutes talking about natgas on BNN.

possible plays for this out of favour sector:
Claymore Nat Gas ETF (GAS) 
BMO Junior Gas ETF (ZJN)
Horizons Nat Gas Bull+ (HNU)


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## Larry6417 (Jan 27, 2010)

slacker said:


> I'm watching for a time to sell BP, and find something better for my 5% allocation to "speculation".


Why not pick a price you'd be happy to sell at then sell a covered call option using that strike price? If the stock reaches that price, the option will be assigned; you'll receive the strike price plus the premium. If the stock doesn't reach that price, you pocket the premium and retain the stock.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

sometimes there's a psychological difficulty with the hold-stock-sell-call-option-sit-back-&-wait strategy.

a party who's thinking so fondly of bolting that he posts here in this forum - and he calls BP a speculation although at this point in time post the gulf accident BP is no longer a speculative play - this party is already more than halfway ready to break off his relationship. Plus he's already eyeing the field for new fillies.

a long-stock-short-call strategy, on the other hand, requires a committed common-law relationship. A draconian one, even stricter than one blessed by holy rite. There's no fooling around in an option pair. No breaking up prior to the expiration date, unless the party pays to buy the contract back.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

You're so funny HP. 

I recently sold TAP & now looking for a replacement; maybe VCO and/or AmBev [Chile & Brazil respectively]. Why? Because the global beer market is supposedly going to have a volume of '162.3 billion liters by 2013.'

Also sold NKE and looking for a replacement, hmm, maybe LLL, can't believe the stock price is almost the same.  I would not buy the latter unless it went down to $30.


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

Frick... I have been 'watching' Canaco. Just delaying the buy for over a week, started to creep up so I thought I would hold off. Went up 10% today a few minutes ago. 

It annoys me when my watchlist outperforms everything.


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## rookie (Mar 19, 2010)

i have been wanting to short OPEN for a while now but was hesitant since we are in recovery mode. however, the stock keeps going higher and higher. wish i could reason why...


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I am looking for oil stocks to purchase ...


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

Could one make an argument for bailing out of dividend ETFs like XDV for example and moving to energy like XEG ? Both yields have dropped but not nearly as much as dividends . Just watching for now.


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

Well earlier it was under a watch but I now have bought some DATA GROUP INCOME FUND (DGI.U) I like that this company does something fairly unique yet critical. "_DGI is a leading provider of document management solutions including printed products. Founded in 1959, the company operates numerous facilities in 11 regions across Canada and has a leading market share in the total document management services segment_." Unbelievably boring but they work for banks and the like with documents, blah, blah but the dividend is offering a yield over 9% and I think this is a well diversified part of a dividend portfolio (not another REIT, pipeline, energy co. etc) I could totally see these guys bought out some day. TDW's early morning reports (Monday?) called it a buy and priced it at $8 - it sits at $6.66 today. I only bought 1,100 for anyone who expects disclosure, and plan to forget about it.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Is DGI an outsourcing company for document management, or do they provide in-house solutions to businesses (e.g. assess its needs and tweak a mostly cookie cutter product)? I know Kodak is in the same business, usually insurance and financials assign in-house staff for this because more data tends to be confidential.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I bought Second Cup (SCU) at $7.92/sh last Fall, at current price the dividend yield is still pretty high at 10.91% per year. The other resto chain I have on my watch list is SRV.UN, as always the trick is getting in at the right time...


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

marina628 said:


> I am looking for oil stocks to purchase ...


Hi all...I've been following this forum for a few weeks and decided to register to allow me to add my 2 cents.

I did a Canadian stock screen search yesterday using fairly stringent parameters and along with 6 other stocks Bonterra Energy Corp	BNE-T showed up.

I bought 200 shares since it is 

1. thinly traded ( I like these)
2. pays a good div I think almost 5%
3. roe over 80%
4.All assets are in Canada (no civil/political/terrorist threats to allow for)


This stock has had great gains lately and may not be suitable for a quick flip. I will try to grab more up to 1000 over the next few months.


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

ddkay said:


> Is DGI an outsourcing company for document management, or do they provide in-house solutions to businesses (e.g. assess its needs and tweak a mostly cookie cutter product)? I know Kodak is in the same business, usually insurance and financials assign in-house staff for this because more data tends to be confidential.


I am really uncertain about that, to be honest it is pretty bland...not very good DD at all


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Uncertain that Kodak is in the same business? I only say so because I've done some of that work myself.  http://graphics.kodak.com/docimaging/US/en/index.htm?_requestid=42352

The Data Group Income Fund website really doesn't give much info on first glance, but non-investor site gives a quicker impression of their offerings. I didn't get the gist of it from your post so I asked for clarification, that's all. Personally I would call it more of a printing and distribution operation than document management.


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

ddkay said:


> Uncertain that Kodak is in the same business? I only say so because I've done some of that work myself.  http://graphics.kodak.com/docimaging/US/en/index.htm?_requestid=42352
> 
> The Data Group Income Fund website really doesn't give much info on first glance, but non-investor site gives a quicker impression of their offerings. I didn't get the gist of it from your post so I asked for clarification, that's all. Personally I would call it more of a printing and distribution operation than document management.


http://www.datagroup.ca/eng/prod_serv.html


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

ddkay said:


> The Data Group Income Fund website really doesn't give much info on first glance, but non-investor site gives a quicker impression of their offerings. I didn't get the gist of it from your post so I asked for clarification, that's all. Personally I would call it more of a printing and distribution operation than document management.


Aren't they in a rather out-dated and disappearing business?
Organizations are moving more and more towards paperless operations.
Where do you see this company 3, 5 and maybe 10 years from now?
They will need a bigger and bigger share of a shrinking market just to keep up current performance, let alone growth.
I don't know, so just asking....


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## buaya (Jan 7, 2011)

HaroldCrump said:


> Aren't they in a rather out-dated and disappearing business?
> Organizations are moving more and more towards paperless operations.
> Where do you see this company 3, 5 and maybe 10 years from now?
> They will need a bigger and bigger share of a shrinking market just to keep up current performance, let alone growth.
> I don't know, so just asking....


I had been lurking here for a while and I thought I will comment on this stock.
I know the business as I am in print. The original company was part of the old Maclean Hunter group and specializes in business forms, cheques etc. They made a lot of money in the 80's and 90's when businesses start to switch to computerized systems. They own a few plants. 
When banks and insurance companies want to close their inplant printing operations, Data would buy them e.g. when BMO and Nesbitt got out of the printing their own materials, Data bought them for about $40 millions and signed a contract to print all of their stuff for 10 years. It expired about 3 years ago.
It is a well run company and I still used one of their plants to print cheques etc for my clients, but it is a sunset industry.A couple of their competitors have gone out of business and this had helped them maintain their market share.
Davis and Henderson is a similar company but they do mainly cheques with a captive market as the banks all order their retail customer cheques through them.


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## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> Aren't they in a rather out-dated and disappearing business?
> Organizations are moving more and more towards paperless operations.
> Where do you see this company 3, 5 and maybe 10 years from now?
> They will need a bigger and bigger share of a shrinking market just to keep up current performance, let alone growth.
> I don't know, so just asking....


Who knows? 

Didn't IBM make typewriters? Kodak make film...Yellow Pages...er...makes pages that are yellow?

I think we are still a paper world and these products are some that will remain around for a long time.

I am sure I will have sold before then.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

DavidJD said:


> Who knows?
> 
> Didn't IBM make typewriters? Kodak make film...Yellow Pages...er...makes pages that are yellow?
> 
> I think we are still a paper world and these products are some that will remain around for a long time.


Kodak looks like it's been tumbling downward for the last 10+ years? Yellowpages must be paying more dividends than it can sustain? What a waste of paper those books are. Guy at work asked for one (there's one in plastic on every desk) and I told him to use the computer but he refused until the numbers were out dated.

I'm really baffled that digital signature devices haven't replaced paper already


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Capital Power Income L.P. (CPA.UN)*



> Capital Power Income Cut To Hold From Buy By Canaccord Genuity (CPA.UN.T)
> 03 Mar 2011 - Dow Jones Newswires


tmx.quotemedia.com

dividend yield now over 9%


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Central Fund of Canada Limited (cef.a) (cef in NY)*

Premium to net assett value is at a low 1% Central Fund NAV

I'll be buying more CEF.A at some point, but not yet.

Friday's close of 22.34 is 18% above the 200 day moving average; lofty heights make me nervous.

StockCharts.com


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Currently watching the entire TSX die.

But, keeping an eye on Suncor now that they are quite low and got fined $275,000 for an environmental water tax or some garbage.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

You make me laugh KaeJS. 

Topped SU on Friday.

@edit: ooops, this is not the 'what did you buy thread', well, I'm watching a lot of stocks to accumulate at the right price.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

To tell the truth, I don't understand TSX this week. When oil and gold down - TSX strong down, but when oil and gold are up, TSX down again (and DOW is up)


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*TSX Sector Indexes*

Only three sectors were up this week,
and they were very weak.

Info Tech ....... + 0.95%
Cons Staples ... + 0.47%
Health Care ..... + 0.22%

The other eleven sectors were down.

groppinmale


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

...and this sectors in Canada so small that they don't affect TSX too much


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## runner39 (Mar 11, 2010)

Eder said:


> Hi all...I've been following this forum for a few weeks and decided to register to allow me to add my 2 cents.
> 
> I did a Canadian stock screen search yesterday using fairly stringent parameters and along with 6 other stocks Bonterra Energy Corp	BNE-T showed up.
> 
> ...



what were the parameters you used, because BNE does not look that enticing to me
P/B - 7.4
P/E - 20.6
long term debt > assets


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

runner39 said:


> what were the parameters you used, because BNE does not look that enticing to me
> P/B ,- 7.4
> P/E - 20.6
> long term debt > assets



Hi runner

I like the 38% ROE, forward PE of about 12, all Canadian property,10% increase in production about 65% oil 35% gas and their dividend.
10 year total return over 40% compared to about 4% for the independent oil & gas sector...tells me management has a clue...

btw the 5 year average P/B is over 10 for BNE Industry average P/E for the sector is 19 atm ... I thought it would be lower.

hmmm...looks like they just raised their dividend about 8% for April


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Has anyone looked at COA (Coastal Contacts)?
Pretty stable financials.
But seems to have caught attention recently and stock has run up quite a lot since the start of this year.
Anyone holding or watching?
What might be a good entry point?


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## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

Watching NKW, it had a good run a month ago and has sunk ever since.
Me learning to trade, have little question if anyone can help?
On the snapshot below, Vol/Avg Daily vol is this corect in saying it traded 614.9 thousand shares? 
Bid ask lots showing 33 and 15, this means lots of 100 shares right, so their are 3300 shares or 33 lots of 100 shares each for bid right now and same for ask lots?


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## Dmoney (Apr 28, 2011)

I'm giving some serious thought to some of the higher yielding REITs, but am thinking the majority of the sector is either fairly or over valued. Most major REITs seem to have hit 52 week highs, but there is still some value to be had in smaller riskier names. 

Anything yielding 7-8%+ generally comes with debt or operational concerns, but there are some names that look to have solid footing (AX.UN) or yields just too good to pass up (SRQ.UN at 11%+)


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

I have some AX and like them for their limited US exposure.
The stock price has been stable but needs to be constantly watched.
They tend to issue units with regular frequency so I suspect the dilution is preventing the stock price from going up much.
SRQ is risky, esp. since the insolvency of Taco Bell/KFC.
Also their parent company is in some financial trouble that I don't fully understand and haven't bothered to investigate.
I don't hold SRQ.


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## Dmoney (Apr 28, 2011)

HaroldCrump said:


> SRQ is risky, esp. since the insolvency of Taco Bell/KFC.
> Also their parent company is in some financial trouble that I don't fully understand and haven't bothered to investigate.
> I don't hold SRQ.


SRQ is a complete play on risk. 50% of their leasable area is represented by Taco Bell/KFC franchises operated by Priszm fund, which has filed for bankruptcy. SRQ management is putting a good spin on it, saying that it will allow for them to diversify their tenant base, and I think 79 out of 100+ Priszm leases were guaranteed by a third party that bought the franchises, but a significant percentage of their leases are still relying on Priszm.

Also, their format doesn't lend well to attracting new tenants. As small, individual box locations, they can't attract as diverse a set of tenants as even a strip mall, so they rely on restaurants, shopper's drug mart and the occasional bank.

However, if they manage to turn themselves around, manage their debt, attract new tenants and maintain their distribution, expect a 30% or more pop in a couple of days. It is way beyond me to give any prediction as to when that will be, if ever.

Check out BTB.UN if you want to see a similar situation that turned out very well for investors. 

I would not be against buying 100-200 shares of SRQ.UN, but would only risk what I can lose comfortably.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

*Vti*

Hi..I am in the process of re-balancing - moving some funds to cash and hoping for a pull-bck over the next 4 months & buy a global ETF - like VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF). Does anyone have a good recommendation on a few good global ETF's to help diversify outside the TSX? If so - what do you recoemmend. I'd like to buy an ETF that I can re-invest the disribution (DRIP) automatically, but this is not a decisive requirement.
Thanks to any/all suggestions.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

dubmac said:


> Does anyone have a good recommendation on a few good global ETF's to help diversify outside the TSX? If so - what do you recoemmend. I'd like to buy an ETF that I can re-invest the disribution (DRIP) automatically, but this is not a decisive requirement.
> Thanks to any/all suggestions.


IMHO VTI and VEA


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I've made about 40% (USD terms) since January trading XIV. It's a small weight in my portfolio and I rebalance when it deviates 10% up or down.

XIV seems to be pretty good at exploiting the decay in value in VXX, and is safer than shorting same (plus you can't short in RRSP/TFSA).


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Will be watching the election and the potential ramifications on my portfolio.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

Cal said:


> Will be watching the election and the potential ramifications on my portfolio.


What do you think would happen? If NDP wins many seats, perhaps CAD$ will drop as more tax increase may be expected with big corporations. Most investors will then shift their money away...


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Am I the only one expecting the markets to yawn?


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

*Niska Gas Storage*

Hi all, 
Being the cautious guy that I am, I'm looking for anyone holding or watching Niska Gas Storage. The numbers look reasonably good, but I'm no scholar on these matter. Trades as NKA on the NYSE, company is basically the US assets of the Encana breakup. Has 41% institutional ownership, Nice dividend over 6% , EPS of 1.38 and PE ratio at around 15%. Only real question is that it is new, with little in the way of history. 

Anyone know anything about it? Maybe worth buying if the $ stays low and is expected to improve...Thoughts?


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Do a search for "Niska Gas downgraded", at least two in the past few weeks - concerned the share price is becoming inflated


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Hi:

I still like Norbord NBT-T. A play on housing in the States, so they are in a holding pattern making little money with two NA plants shuttered. European Q1 2011 results were smashing.

They mostly make oriented strand board (OSB), about 80% of sales. Hard to find a simpler product or a simpler company. No need for much crystal ball gazing: OSB made 50 years ago looks pretty much like it does today, and how it will look in 50 years. Makes a simple utilitarian product with decades of history. This is a characteristic of this company that one like say RIM will never enjoy. 

Most recent trades: 
Last bought 300 shares in the $11s (2010)
Sold 1500 in the $18s (2009, should have sold more!)

I already have a pretty large holding, but will find it hard to resist adding more if the price continues to drift down into the $10-11 range. Mid $12s today. These prices are about double the lows of a few years back, but debt is down and cash in the bank now, not to mention the generally improving economy.

I've been a shareholder long enough that I once upon a time I collected dividends, so 7 years maybe?

Currently showing a loss on my position, but those who pay attention know that I have patience. Maybe I'll have to wait 10 years, but it is likely that one day houses will again be constructed in the USA. For an idea of the upside under pricing improvements, check out Q2 2010 report.

Long 4800 shares, 5.6% of holdings.

Cheers,

hboy43


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Ya gotta luv that Telus stock - just upped the dividend again..and the stock is up 1.33 per share so far (3 pm)..


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## nick24 (Apr 3, 2009)

Acme Packet (APKT) - waiting for it to drop into low 70s.
F Five Networks (FFIV) - bought at 100, wondering whether to leap with both feet or just dip my toes in the water. They made me $1300 recently, so it's very tempting - yet very volatile!


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Bayfield Ventures (BYV on venture exch)*

for gamblers only:
nice pop on June 27 on good drill results

Live chart of BYV.V

The way I see things:

there's a very good chance the gap to 0.59 will be filled
0.50 would be a good entry especially if RSI goes under 30
lots of selling up to 1.22 as people wait to "get even"

Disclosure: I was in at 0.70 ... sold at 0.81
bought again at 0.69


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## Abha (Jun 26, 2011)

Watching MA (Mastercard)

This is just too great of a company not to hold


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## FrugalTrader (Oct 13, 2008)

Watching Best Buy (BBY)..


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

What am I not watching? 

Oil stocks.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> What am I not watching?
> 
> Oil stocks.


Me neither, but that's only because I'm "all in" energy. 

If I wasn't, BTE.TO would be at the top of my list (4.5% yield)

Gutsy move on RBY, but you did well ... congratulations!

Have a great weekend 

added:
Jessica's "Daily Affirmation" 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR3rK0kZFkg


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## Mockingbird (Apr 29, 2009)

Quarterly window dressing in the market. 
Pretty good week.

MB


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## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

Watching SVM, one year went from 120+% gain to 30% now, so right now it sucks but that's because its at 30% gain!!!
Silver stocks are like firecrackers drenched is nitro these days.....kaboom either way.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

zylon said:


> Gutsy move on RBY, but you did well ... congratulations!


Thanks Zylon and by the way, I meant that I'm watching everything.  But my attention has been on accumulation of oil stocks.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

I'm watching Power Corp. and Financial.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Did anyone notice the chart of EMA.TO today?

minus 31% right at the open on sizeable volume ... far as I can tell, that price action is accurate.

As long as that sort of thing is going on I think I'll stay away from everything. Something's not right. I noticed a few others like that, but not so pronounced.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Today, instead of looking at the bottom ten on my watch list where I usually like to wander, watching to see what might be getting ready to push up daisies, I looked for the strongest ten, which I display nearby, sorted by the gap between today's low price and the location of the 200 day moving average.

The purpose of this exercise would *not* be to buy low, but to buy strength for the long term. I wouldn't buy anything off this list just yet ... give it another 2 to 3 weeks to see what shakes out.

Seasonally, September often registers the largest drop in price for the year, while October can be expected to put in the low.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I was doing the buy low exercise, so thanks for doing the harder exercise Zylon. Much appreciated.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Don't mention it, T-O 

I'm continuing with my tedious accumulation of BTE

... and when CNR drops to 60 in this cycle, I'm in.










Added: chart from G&M


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

S&P has recommended anything below $65 for CNR is a "buy."


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## atrp2biz (Sep 22, 2010)

My shopping list:

FTS
COS
CNR

For the RRSP:
PSA
PM
SO
MCD

All with dividends.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

I am kicking myself...I have been watching BOY (Boyuan Construction) for months and it has been mostly yo-yo-ing and hemming and hawing.
This morning they announced a buy-back and stock jumped over 40%.

I feel I dropped the ball on this one...lost focus because of all the noise and excitement going on during the last 2 months.

Congratulations to anyone here that might have held this.

Also, note to self : trim Google watchlist such that it fits within one screen without scrolling.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> Also, note to self : trim Google watchlist such that it fits within one screen without scrolling.


I like it to fit on one screen too.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

I am looking to pick up a bank financial. haven't decided which one yet... 
They seem to move in unison more or less so I may base my choice on business models.

I like BNS's foreign exposure to latin america with good yield. but they have the highest P/E of the group. I like TD's customer service inititiatives and potential for dividend growth (but hate the yield) I like RY's price to yield but hate their most recent failed attempt to penetrate the US. I like BMO as a high yield and may be the safest bank if the world continues to crumble but see little room for growth in regards to price or dividend. I think the best balance play would be to either buy TD and BMO or BNS and RY as a long term play. Comments?

I am considering possibly adding a trust (Boston pizza or A+W, or a REIT) ...


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> I think the best balance play would be to either buy TD and BMO or BNS and RY as a long term play. Comments?


I have been buying RY and BNS recently & have been perturbed by RY dropping more than I pay for it  ...I like your idea buying REIT's but they seem expensive now...seems as though many people are chasing yield and this drives $ up REIT's. I'd like to increase my international stock exposure & have been looking to add CYH under 14.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

londoncalling said:


> I am looking to pick up a bank financial. haven't decided which one yet...
> They seem to move in unison more or less so I may base my choice on business models.
> 
> I like BNS's foreign exposure to latin america with good yield. but they have the highest P/E of the group. I like TD's customer service inititiatives and potential for dividend growth (but hate the yield) I like RY's price to yield but hate their most recent failed attempt to penetrate the US. I like BMO as a high yield and may be the safest bank if the world continues to crumble but see little room for growth in regards to price or dividend. I think the best balance play would be to either buy TD and BMO or BNS and RY as a long term play. Comments?
> ...


I hold all canadian banks, the most appealing now imho looks RY, but I have already the biggest allocation in RY... 

For trust take a look at LIQ.TO , nice dividend, low beta , DRIP with 5% discount


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

dubmac said:


> I have been buying RY and BNS recently & have been perturbed by RY dropping more than I pay for it  ...I like your idea buying REIT's but they seem expensive now...seems as though many people are chasing yield and this drives $ up REIT's. I'd like to increase my international stock exposure & have been looking to add CYH under 14.


Yes, many people are chasing yield and imho this number will be increasing... On the last deep I added a little bit ZRE (I like their weighted structure of the best Canadian REIT)


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

*gibor,*

I saw in the other thread you think the Canadian Banks are cheap right now.

I'm not too sure I agree. Are they cheaper than normal, as in, have they dropped a little? Yes.

But what about what the future brings? I would say the banks are still pretty fairly valued and aren't really cheap. If they dropped $5 more, they might be cheap then.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I think they are pretty cheap...historically low PE, good ROE,no risk mortgage loans,above average dividends with good chance of increases,great liquidity (very important today),already forecast tough quarter so no downside surprises but possibly upside surprise...

Dang I think I will buy some RY & BNS tomorrow.

But then if I'm buying that might be a bearish signal....accccch!

But if I realize that my buying is bearish, but I'm always wrong, perhaps that is a bullish signal?


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

They are cheap if you assume things will not get worse.

If the Europe crisis continues to get worse before it gets better (which it most likely will, imo) then the banks aren't cheap. They are fair.

In all honesty - I'd love to get BMO at $50 and RY at $40. I am happy with this little dip, but I'd like a bigger one. 

Either way, that doesn't stop my buying. I just purchased 50 RY at $45.45 a few days ago.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Suncor is at $28, back close to the magical $25 level. So far this year it's been to $47.27 then down to $23.97 then back up to $33 . When it gets close to $25, you might notice a flicker on your screen and a system slow down as my money market funds are unloaded


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

What I think is bizarre with Suncor is that when the Japanese had an Earthquake, Tsunami and then Nuclear Meltdown (WOW, talk about having a bad day) and everyone thought the world was going to shut off their nuclear power plants, oil shot up to $100. At that time Suncor traded up to $47 as you said. 

This time around, oil hits $100 and Suncor has a hard time getting above $30.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

I am preparing to take a few others large position ! Lots of good stock at PE 6-7-8 !!!

Lot of opportunities for people with cash and the stomach to handle the volatility and even the downside


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## Abha (Jun 26, 2011)

OptsyEagle said:


> This time around, oil hits $100 and Suncor has a hard time getting above $30.


Fundamentals have no bearing in this kind of market. Look at the massive growth and cash that Apple has and the chart is breaking down day by day.

The biggest issue that needs to be resolved is the uncertainty in Europe. Doesn't matter if the euro crashes and burns or is stabilized...it just needs to be one or the other. 

The uncertainty is a killer to most portfolios.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

OptsyEagle said:


> What I think is bizarre with Suncor is that when the Japanese had an Earthquake, Tsunami and then Nuclear Meltdown (WOW, talk about having a bad day) and everyone thought the world was going to shut off their nuclear power plants, oil shot up to $100. At that time Suncor traded up to $47 as you said.
> 
> This time around, oil hits $100 and Suncor has a hard time getting above $30.


But Suncor is not crude oil - it's a large, intergated, diversified oil company with many interests and many factors affecting its performance.
If you wish to mirror the performance of crude oil, you need an ETF like USO or such.
With a company, you take on execution risk, quality of oil assets/properties, downstream profitability, management risk, political risk, and many other factors.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Also when people buy gold or oil stocks they are looking into the future like the stock market does months before the economy goes down or turns around. So people will put in a discount or a premium in to where they think the price of the underlying commodity is going to be and how sustainable they think the price of the commodity will be.

I should add that of course OpstyEagle knows this but it is still surprising to see a stock perform like this.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> If you wish to mirror the performance of crude oil, you need an ETF like USO or such.


USO is a terrible ETF. It doesn't act the way it's supposed to compared to something like GLD. Chevron or Exxon is a better proxy for oil prices, and you get growing dividends too.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Yes, there are problems with USO.
But oil companies are not mirrors of crude oil price either - at least not in a guaranteed, reliable way.
Chevron/Exxon could have a spill like BP, dividends could be cut, govt. could sue for billion.
Or it might turn out that they have been sponsoring separatist militia in some sub Saharan African country...

The only sure way to mirror the pure price of the commodity would be to buy futures directly.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Argonaut said:


> USO is a terrible ETF. It doesn't act the way it's supposed to compared to something like GLD. Chevron or Exxon is a better proxy for oil prices, and you get growing dividends too.


Oil is expensive to store, gold is not, on a % of value basis. Agreed that USO is not a good way to get exposure to long term price trends in oil. I wouldn't recommend it for anything but perhaps some short term trend following.


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I should add that of course OpstyEagle knows this but it is still surprising to see a stock perform like this.


Very little actually surprises me in the stock market anymore but it does make me give my head a shake a few times and try to determine what it means.

I think it just shows the irrationality of investors and the need to look out beyond this irrationality. I mean, investors moved oil to $100 a barrel on the rediculous idea that oil was going to replace most nuclear power plants and that future outlook told investors to pay $47 for SU. Now, oil is trading at close to $100 a barrel, when we are supposed to be in a recession, and that resilience seems to be lost on investors and therefore they don't want to pay even $30 for SU.

Looking out a couple years, I see the European issue resolved one way or the other, I see the planet with less oil then, then it has today, and I see investors preferring to drive their cars to work, instead of pushing them, no matter what economic system survives. I then ask the question, in this environment is SU likely to be overvalued, fairly valued or undervalued and with my observation of SU and world events, I think undervalued has to be the answer. 

To work in on top of this, how undervalued can it get, one would need a better crystall ball then I have and if one needs some resolution of world problems before they invest, then one would need to be willing to pay higher prices,because that will be the result. It is this environment that makes investors pay $28 instead of $47 for the same earnings power and lets face it, what is the bigger risk, Europe or paying too high of price for your stocks. As I see it, Europe is an unknown risk with varying outcomes, but buying high is a risk whose outcome has been fairly well defined.

That's how I see it, anyways. Suncor is a buy.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

OptsyEagle said:


> Very little actually surprises me in the stock market anymore but it does make me give my head a shake a few times and try to determine what it means.
> 
> I think it just shows the irrationality of investors and the need to look out beyond this irrationality. I mean, investors moved oil to $100 a barrel on the rediculous idea that oil was going to replace most nuclear power plants and that future outlook told investors to pay $47 for SU. Now, oil is trading at close to $100 a barrel, when we are supposed to be in a recession, and that resilience seems to be lost on investors and therefore they don't want to pay even $30 for SU.
> 
> ...


and if they come up with some alternative fuel suncor will go to $5, so nobody knows what will happen...


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

May be it's not that SU is too low, but oil is too high. If whole world going into recession, price for Crude oil should be much lower than $96-97... 
What do you think about hedging with HOD Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF? It's close to 52 low now


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

You can't hedge properly with leveraged ETFs, just keep a lot of cash..


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

blin10 said:


> and if they come up with some alternative fuel suncor will go to $5, so nobody knows what will happen...


That is quite the "if". Good luck with that strategy


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Either the oil sands oil goes to the US or it goes to China but it will go somewhere. Nat Gas is the only other energy source that can really help out down the road but alternative energy still has a long way to go.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

OptsyEagle said:


> That is quite the "if". Good luck with that strategy


This.

And OptsyEagle, I really enjoyed and agreed with your previous post.

Oil is here to stay. For a while, at least.

Business is not about the environment. Business is about making money.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Oil is too profitable to move on to another source.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

I am watching SU... i might add some !

Might take a position in materials too (steel/aluminium for me)


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

We far away from not using oil. Green is not profitable enough. People and governments are scared of nuclear.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Why buy Suncor when you can buy BP?


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Causalien said:


> Why buy Suncor when you can buy BP?


For a short-mid term flip, SU have more upside potential

For a long-term hold, both are very solid stock


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Why does SU have more upside potential? I am not in the oil industry so I am confused because I see BP with more upside.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

What are the best stocks to play Santa rally (if we have one)...
IMHO, the most aggressive (and dangerous) play - FM, less aggressive (but still pretty aggressive) - TCK.B, and more conservative - SU ..

Another option is play all of them via XMA
What do you think?


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Alot of my holdings are near a 52 week high......hoping for a pull back in the next month of two to deploy some $.


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## Young&Ambitious (Aug 11, 2010)

I'm watching Barrick Gold :02.47-tranquillity:


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Everywhere I look I see oozing optimism;
and belguy seems to have abandoned his station on 
the other end of the teeter-totter to keep things in balance.

*A look from the top down:*










- via Twitter @CoryLVenable

I'm "watching" HXD.TO


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Zylon, can you spell out what you see in that chart? I'm interested, but I don't know what I'm looking at. Resistance at 1550 with declining volume? Is that the gist of it?


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

jcgd said:


> Zylon, can you spell out what you see in that chart? I'm interested, but I don't know what I'm looking at. Resistance at 1550 with declining volume? Is that the gist of it?


You got it; the declining volume is very significant.
Also, a possible triple top in the making.

Note: the chart isn't mine but is courtesy Cory Venable.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

It does look like we have a bit of a frenzy in the purchase of anything with a dividend and a lot of happy people right now so a correction is due. I would think there will be a set back or probably two tests on the triple top before the stock market breaks out and moves forward as possibly the Fed will want to push it through after some of the overbought comes off of it and the Fed also lets the shorts build up positions to fuel their next move. With all the QE going on you would think this would be a good place for the Fed to make it count in a break out using the Plunge Protection Team. 

If this is the top then I am sure it will be the debt ceiling and fiscal cliff thing that gets the ball rolling. I still however can't see the Fed just throw in the towel and give up at this point after all they have been doing lately.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Interesting. Now, can a triple top patter occur over any time period? For example, this triple top took from '97 to 2013, 16 years for three peaks. Looking at a chart of the sp500 spanning 1950-present I don't see any other triple top patterns, while the recent pattern is clearly defined. Is there simply no other example of this pattern in the SP500 since 1950 or can a triple top pattern occur over a different period of time? I'm just not sure how a triple top over 15 years would act the same way as a triple top over say, 1 year or 5 years. Why is the triple top significant, if it is the only one in 63 years?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

It is significant because everyone will be looking at it so it will provide resistance until the hurdle is clearly taken out and then we head into uncharted territory. If you look at the 1970's the 1,000 level was a ton of resistance until it was finally clearly taken out. There is a lot of enthusiasm as I mentioned in the market right now and a correction is due. We could also be in a massive trading range meaning the stock market will find its way back down near the 2009 lows before trying to punch through the top again. 

Double and triple tops however are usually over a much shorter time frame and is usually a failure of buyers to take an index or stock to new highs meaning that the buyers are running out of money to overcome the sellers. The s&p will most likely show us a double top or something here as it rolls over into a correction and it could start heading that way now as we are very overbought.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

For the opposite of this look at the HUI it has clearly formed a double bottom in the summer and is now forming a triple bottom as well as a inverse head and shoulders pattern.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

I bought more Kinross the other day which is range bound but in a clear wedge with a clear resistance line at the bottom in the consolidation pattern. It was very close to the end of the wedge meaning I should see a breakout so I bought more a few days ago so I can sell it higher which is now if I want so I can make some money off the consolidation and the breakout and still hold a core position. 
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;


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## Young&Ambitious (Aug 11, 2010)

Teck is dropping dropping and dropping. It'll be interesting to sit back, watch and see where this goes...


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

if we ever test 2009 lows again, I swear I'm going to sell everything including house,cars,etc and load up huge on equities with going into big margin and eat noodles for some time lol... I ain't missing out again



dogcom said:


> It is significant because everyone will be looking at it so it will provide resistance until the hurdle is clearly taken out and then we head into uncharted territory. If you look at the 1970's the 1,000 level was a ton of resistance until it was finally clearly taken out. There is a lot of enthusiasm as I mentioned in the market right now and a correction is due. We could also be in a massive trading range meaning the stock market will find its way back down near the 2009 lows before trying to punch through the top again.
> 
> Double and triple tops however are usually over a much shorter time frame and is usually a failure of buyers to take an index or stock to new highs meaning that the buyers are running out of money to overcome the sellers. The s&p will most likely show us a double top or something here as it rolls over into a correction and it could start heading that way now as we are very overbought.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

blin10 said:


> if we ever test 2009 lows again, I swear I'm going to sell everything including house,cars,etc and load up huge on equities with going into big margin and eat noodles for some time lol... I ain't missing out again


Ah, but next time it might be different 
I think we got away rather easily this time because the central banks had so much money to print.
Be careful what you wish for !


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

I agree, but I like my chances



HaroldCrump said:


> Ah, but next time it might be different
> I think we got away rather easily this time because the central banks had so much money to print.
> Be careful what you wish for !


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## Barwelle (Feb 23, 2011)

blin10 said:


> if we ever test 2009 lows again, I swear I'm going to sell everything including house,cars,etc and load up huge on equities with going into big margin and eat noodles for some time lol... I ain't missing out again


That would have worked since 2000, but will it work in the future? 

I'm reminded of this article that basically states that the strategies that are proven to work end up failing once it is proven to work. It's like jumping on the bandwagon at the last minute, when historical data indicates it is the way to go... then seeing your strategy fail as the situation changes.

Maybe this is the last peak we get before we see Japan 2.0 in North America.

Just food for thought. Me playing devil's advocate. Because I would love it if we had a repeat of this cycle.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

It's pretty safe to say that it's guaranteed there will be a market "crash" (>20% drop in a year) in the future. Who knows when - the market could go up by 50% before then, which means even the next "low" might be higher than right now. But certainly, it will happen - people haven't changed. But it will take guts to invest just like it does every time, because the news will reflect the sentiment - people will be telling you to get out because you'll lose everything. Who invests when you're being told to look at a total loss?


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

I agree, but if I bought stocks above 1200 on SPX, why wouldn't I buy at 700, even if it'll keep going down it won't go to 0



Barwelle said:


> That would have worked since 2000, but will it work in the future?
> 
> I'm reminded of this article that basically states that the strategies that are proven to work end up failing once it is proven to work. It's like jumping on the bandwagon at the last minute, when historical data indicates it is the way to go... then seeing your strategy fail as the situation changes.
> 
> ...


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

HaroldCrump said:


> Ah, but next time it might be different
> I think we got away rather easily this time because the central banks had so much money to print.
> Be careful what you wish for !


i think that ur words are full of wisdom.
i think that people should read about the 1929 crash.
as u said . this time we got away very very easy.
next time.......will be much much different.
nevertheless everything goes in cycles right?
therefore what goes up does come down and vice versa.
cheers.
NO PUN INTENDED:encouragement:


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Young&Ambitious said:


> Teck is dropping dropping and dropping. It'll be interesting to sit back, watch and see where this goes...


retest of 31.5?:rolleyes2:
not a bad first entry.
this puppy ain't cheap.
till then i will not touch it.
u know why is it down?
if u do not know u should find out then.
good company .
one of the commoditties it produces is taking a cruel beating and to be honest i do not know when it will recover.
GL


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## Young&Ambitious (Aug 11, 2010)

Financials out today. Current #s not quite so nice in contrast to comparable periods. The future outlook on a macro scale is anyone's guess, game of Magic 8 ball really.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

There are a couple rumors in the grape vine involving Teck, their beaten down commodity & CP rail. I took a small flyer on it as I will most likely collect a dividend or two to see if things pan out.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Watching BPO, would like to pick up 130 shares sometime this year to hold long term in the TFSA if there's a pullback in price.

Used to hold it's predecessors Hees and Edper way back when the Bronfman brothers were still running it (in the early 90's I think).
The complex ownership stuctures and the problems with Canary Wharf combined with recession scared me off holding individual stocks, but now with this purchase it will only be a very small portion of my portfolio, not the 20% or so as it was back then when my entire portfolio was 5 stocks.

In hindsight I probably would have been ok staying with a buy and hold strategy, gradually becoming more diversified, because for a while there I was instead diversified at the expense of holding those evil high mer mutual funds, 
but trading costs were higher and research was less available, and there were no low mer index funds that I was aware of at the time.


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## mbmb (Oct 17, 2012)

watching ZNN
I have just exit at $1.2, waiting to drop under $1 to buy more shares using the profit already booked.


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## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

Tower group international(TWGP) has took a beating... Tomm i'm gonna make a small in.


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