# my 2 oil stocks tanking today...



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

what's the outlook for WCP & CPG, going forward, as they say,...volatility...?


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

No guarantee on forward guidance. All energy stocks are pulling back from their recent highs. The little guys are taking it harder with most down around 10% on the day while the big guys are down around 5% at time of posting. Fuel prices stay high, supply still low so I don't see anything has changed aside from sentiment. Most of the sentiment is about the looming recession so there is a lot of profit taking going on. Definitely volatility.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

CPG and WCP are both so cheap it is really confusing and amazing at the same time. They are now trading at the same stock price as when oil was under $70 - yet oil is $105. 2 times cash flow or less. And WCP is doubly confusing at nearly half the debt of CPG but still has only a slightly higher valuation. WCP well under 0.5 times debt to cash flow, a level which is considered extremely low for an oil producer and allows them to pay egregious dividends or make huge share buybacks.

Both have substantially increased their dividends and have started buying back shares. We should see a lot more of both for both companies this year.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

I have bought CPG today. Technicals (SMA200) would indicate it might fall a little bit more, but with this FCF yield and decent debt/equity ratio, I decided not to wait


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## Gumball (Dec 22, 2011)

I am optimistic about canadian / US Oil - more so because europe has painted itself into a corner listening to greta thumberg and is now in a situation where they are at the mercy of others to provide them energy. Also I dont see the situation in Ukraine improving and see the US / Canada as a beacon of stability in the world and I dont see oil demand slowing anytime soon


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## Gumball (Dec 22, 2011)

forgot to mention bought some baytex yesterday


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

Gumball said:


> I am optimistic about canadian / US Oil - more so because europe has painted itself into a corner listening to greta thumberg and is now in a situation where they are at the mercy of others to provide them energy. Also I dont see the situation in Ukraine improving and see the US / Canada as a beacon of stability in the world and I dont see oil demand slowing anytime soon


The only problem is lack of infrastructure. 
Canadian natural gas is useless to Europe until we can export more of it.
That's why you saw massive drop in north american nat gas prices and rise in european when LNG terminal in Texas got damaged. 
Gas in Europe is couple times as expensive as in US because of lack of export facilities


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Ottawa and the progressives (Nero) fiddled while Rome burned. We could have had an LNG export terminal in Nova Scotia already had there been some political support around it. Less competitive would have been the Energy East oil pipeline had we not had a Quebec gatekeeper and spineless PM in Ottawa. That one I think could be a white elephant. 

Ultimately, Canada may need to run a new oil pipeline north of the Great Lakes anyway to avoid the whacko governors in Michigan and Minnesota that are so willing to shut down Enbridge lines. It is rather embarrassing how Canada self-implodes.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

AltaRed said:


> Ottawa and the progressives (Nero) fiddled while Rome burned. We could have had an LNG export terminal in Nova Scotia already had there been some political support around it. Less competitive would have been the Energy East oil pipeline had we not had a Quebec gatekeeper and spineless PM in Ottawa. That one I think could be a white elephant.
> 
> Ultimately, Canada may need to run a new oil pipeline north of the Great Lakes anyway to avoid the whacko governors in Michigan and Minnesota that are so willing to shut down Enbridge lines. It is rather embarrassing how Canada self-implodes.


Does NS have a moratorium on oil and gas development? Quebec has one and they are believed to have a rich base of NG.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Not that I am aware of. However, there is no longer any NS O&G resource potential worth chasing as I understand it. Sable offshore turned out to be underwhelming, i.e. the gas reservoirs did not last that long.


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## investor65 (Aug 3, 2021)

damian13ster said:


> The only problem is lack of infrastructure.
> Canadian natural gas is useless to Europe until we can export more of it.
> That's why you saw massive drop in north american nat gas prices and rise in european when LNG terminal in Texas got damaged.
> Gas in Europe is couple times as expensive as in US because of lack of export facilities


Does anybody think the fire is a massive buy opportunity for NG stocks?
There is nowhere to go but up. I like TOU.
They're gonna do try to get this fixed asap.


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

investor65 said:


> Does anybody think the fire is a massive buy opportunity for NG stocks?
> There is nowhere to go but up. I like TOU.
> They're gonna do try to get this fixed asap.


The shoulder season is the fall. Winter is the high price season. The big US NLG facility will be back in full operation in the fall. The demand for LNG in Europe will be massive this fall . Be patient and start buying NG stocks in the fall. The question is do you buy US or Canadian NG producers?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Both the Liberal government and the Ontario government have lobbied hard to keep Line 5 operational until it can be replaced.

But it is a big gamble there is no environmental disaster in that location in Lake Huron. That lake provides fresh water to millions of people and a leak would devastate the tourist and recreation industries. Both levels of government will be keeping their fingers crossed that the pipe holds up long enough because it is already in a serious state of decline.

It would be better to build a pipeline on land around the Great Lakes, but that would take too long and they don't want to risk the old pipeline in place.

Michigan decided not to gamble and want the line shut down, and there isn't anything Canada can do about it.

I would ask who the idiot was who decided to route the pipe in the worst possible place.

Anyone who has traveled over the Mackinaw Bridge or boated in the area knows how strong the currents are there.

An oil leak there would be an environmental disaster spreading across the lower Great Lakes affecting tens of millions of people in both countries.


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## investor65 (Aug 3, 2021)

zinfit said:


> The shoulder season is the fall. Winter is the high price season. The big US NLG facility will be back in full operation in the fall. The demand for LNG in Europe will be massive this fall . Be patient and start buying NG stocks in the fall. The question is do you buy US or Canadian NG producers?


Good insights. Have you worked in the energy industry?
I like Tourmaline. Out of CDN gas stocks, it seems the best.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

Europe after Russia's war decided to implement a rule that storage capacity by end of the year has to reach 90% (could be 95%, verify with google). Right now it is barely above 50% and last week's inflows to storage were much lower than in previous weeks due to Russia cutting supply (one compressor being shut off, supposedly because of turbine held up by Canada). At last week's pace, Europe will not be able to fill the self-imposed target, and will have to increase pace in the fall - hence the jump in demand that will likely result in jump in prices (unless already priced in that is)


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

investor65 said:


> Good insights. Have you worked in the energy industry?
> I like Tourmaline. Out of CDN gas stocks, it seems the best.


Tourmaline has had a terrific run and it is highly priced. I think Arc Resources has much better upside when you do a comparison. I have not worked in the energy industry but I am aware of the major patterns with NG.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

zinfit said:


> I think Arc Resources has much better upside when you do a comparison.


Interesting you say this. My two long positions in energy are XEG and Arc Resources


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## zinfit (Mar 21, 2021)

zinfit said:


> Tourmaline has had a terrific run and it is highly priced. I think Arc Resources has much better upside when you do a comparison. I have not worked in the energy industry but I am aware of the major patterns with NG.


I like EQT and Ranger Oil in the US. Cheniere is a LNG producer.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

the media has started banging the nat gas drum today warning of shortages and demand pricing. We may likely see the same parabolic run up in gas stocks that we saw with oil stocks earlier this year.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

londoncalling said:


> the media has started banging the nat gas drum today warning of shortages and demand pricing. We may likely see the same parabolic run up in gas stocks that we saw with oil stocks earlier this year.


Is anyone here doing short term trading with ETFs such as UNG, Canada's HNU and UGAZF ?

From the start of this year to June 1, when nat gas rallied like crazy,
UNG was up 138%
HNU was up 369%
UGAZF (leveraged) was up 568%

Warning, HNU and UGAZF are not appropriate as long term holding, but it can go absolutely nuts during an uptrend. I don't trust my ability to catch such periods so I don't use these, but for a skilled trader, could be useful.

If you're the kind of person who's able to accurately time entry & exits, HNU can make you a lot of money.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Here's a chart showing North America's natural gas spot price (in black) and HNU in green, both are % changes since start of this year.

HNU is a leveraged fund.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Natural gas is so volatile, I personally would never trade it. I think the outlook is strong, but a super warm winter could very quickly torpedo prices because there is not as much storage nor is it as easy to transport as compared to oil. The gaps between some months can be pretty huge - look at how it drops off in March and April 2023 by almost 40%. Oil futures only drop about 2% in a similar period.


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