# Crypto currencies could be a total scam



## james4beach

I was recently watching a documentary on ponzi schemes and other scams. Pretty interesting to see the history of what kind of stupid ideas were pitched to people. One recurring theme is that the fraudster pitches some elaborate, often ridiculous thing (for example special emu oil). Another famous one in China was a massive ponzi scheme where cardboard boxes full of ants were sold to people as special ants with healing abilities.

I am not ruling out the possibility that crypto coins of all types (BTC, ETH, etc) could be total scams or ponzi schemes. BTC is already known to have heavily concentrated original ownership (the whales) so it *might have originated* as an ingenious pump-and-dump scheme. The other coins might then be copy-cats, motivated to duplicate the same basic scheme in which some original owners first create a coin, and then engage in a massive PR campaign to entice others to bid up the value of that thing.

In other words you start with nothing. Then you spin a (very elaborate) story of why value exists, involving a lot of technical jargon that most people can't understand anyway. You convince people that the thing which started as nothing, is now worth spending money on. Then you take their money.

The story of WHY the coins are valuable, based on the elaborate mathematical structure, is a bit too elaborate and exotic for my taste. And I say that as someone who has worked professionally in cryptography; I've had meetings with entire teams of PhD mathematicians as we studied these things. They are interesting, yes.

The crypto "coins" stories are just a bit too fancy, too extravagant overall. It's a bit like the emu oil, or cardboard boxes full of ants. Personally, they set off my bull**** detector. At the same time they are interesting mathematical concepts with merit. The algorithms are certainly real, and work.

Consider for a moment that the interesting technological aspects could be the hook, perhaps even the _misdirection_, as the scam artists operate traditional pump-and-dump. The internet-based anonymity that's baked into crypto currencies could actually be the technical innovation that keeps this scam going longer than was traditionally possible. In the past, fraud artists had to meet people and sell them the scams, either in person or by mail. But today the scam artists can conceal their identities, create the coins, and then operate the entire PR campaign all from a distance, anonymously.

My point here is ... for those of you who are buying into these stories, don't rule out the possibility that they might be total scams. And I don't just mean the scammers around the peripheries, doing ICOs and stuff. I mean that the structure and innovation itself might, fundamentally, be a giant scam.


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## MrMatt

The ability to perform trustless atomic swaps between 2 parties is a significant innovation.

Right now if you buy something there is a lot of trust.
Buyers have to trust they will get what they paid for.
Sellers have to trust they will be paid.

With Cryprto currency the idea that you can set up a trade, and it will only happen if both transactions take place, is amazing.

That's just one aspect that's particularly interesting.

Yes it does look like a pump and dump.
Just like fiat currency, it has value because others think it has value.

That's why I think you need to separate out blockchain technology from the crypto currencies.


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## Rusty O'Toole

I know there have been several crypto exchanges that have been busted by the police, gone broke or just disappeared with everyone's money. And as you point out, there are "whales" who can push the price around the way stock pools did in the twenties since the markets are unregulated.
Whether the cryptos themselves are scams or whether the scams are a separate issue, they are certainly there.
Apparently it is possible to verify whether a bitcoin is real or fake by tracing every transaction it has ever been involved in. Over time, this is going to take more and more time and energy to do as the blockchain gets longer with use, and the coins get broken down into smaller fractions. Is this done for every transaction? And if it isn't, what is there to stop someone from making duplicate or fake bitcoins?


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## gardner

MrMatt said:


> Just like fiat currency, it has value because others think it has value.


This basic fact is also true of gold and of shares of CP.

Crypto currencies are not backed by any power to tax, nor are they subject to control by democratically instituted policy and oversight. You may pooh pooh fiat currencies all you like, but they are very much a different kettle of fish than crypto.


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## nathan79

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Apparently it is possible to verify whether a bitcoin is real or fake by tracing every transaction it has ever been involved in. Over time, this is going to take more and more time and energy to do as the blockchain gets longer with use, and the coins get broken down into smaller fractions. Is this done for every transaction? And if it isn't, what is there to stop someone from making duplicate or fake bitcoins?


It's not necessary to verify the entire chain for every transaction. Once the transactions inputs are "spent" there's no longer any purpose in verifying them, although the blockchain does save the entire history. There are no fake bitcoins, as those would never have been verified in the first place. If someone wanted to make a fake bitcoin, they would need to control more the 50% of the entire network.


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## sags

The blockchain must record the "spent" bitcoins or they can be spent again. Hence the requirement for an ever lengthening blockchain and time delays.

One solution proposed is that there be no verification at all for small purchases, like coffee or sandwiches type of sales.

That might work in a totally honest society, but unfortunately that isn't the reality.

The word would soon get out and many people would be "double spending" bitcoins. Businesses wouldn't be inclined to adopt the trust principle.

Preventing "double spending" is the whole purpose of the blockchain as described in the words of Satoshi Nakamoto and his fellow developers.

_We propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer network. The network timestamps transactions by hashing them into an ongoing chain of hash-based proof-of-work, forming a record that cannot be changed without redoing the proof-of-work. The longest chain not only serves as proof of the sequence of events witnessed, but proof that it came from the largest pool of CPU proof-of-worker. As long as a majority of CPU proof-of-worker is controlled by nodes that are not cooperating to attack the network, they'll generate the longest chain and outpace attackers. The network itself requires minimal structure. _

Satoshi and the other developers failed to recognize the problem of an ever expanding blockchain. If the blockchain is too long and requires too much time to verify transactions today with a relatively small amount of transactions, imagine the length of the blockchain and time delays that would be required if bitcoins were processing the volume of transactions by a company like VISA which handles 4,000 transactions per second.

Also of note......every transaction of bitcoins requires verification by human "miners". How would one scale that up to VISA transaction levels ?

There is no viable solution that doesn't make it more complicated than it already is......and that is too complicated for most people to bother with.


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## sags

As to the "trust" system of not verifying small transactions......companies quickly learned the folly of "trusting" customers when they offered "one hour delivery or free" as a guaranteed service.

When I was delivering, companies who offered that guarantee were inundated with calls for large orders of food at the busiest times in the worst weather......when it was a virtual guarantee that delivery would not be possible in one hour or less. People ordered and if the food arrived on time......they didn't answer the door. If it was late......they claimed the guarantee. It was a no-lose situation for the grifters.

Any company that currently guarantees the delivery in one hour has a long list of restrictions, which basically boil down to........not if they don't want to.

People who underestimate the level of fraud and theft in their business.........won't be in business long.

Guarantee Policy for Pizza Pizza. See......restrictions.



Guarantee Policy


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## m3s

sags said:


> Also of note......every transaction of bitcoins requires verification by human "miners". How would one scale that up to VISA transaction levels ?
> 
> There is no viable solution that doesn't make it more complicated than it already is......and that is too complicated for most people to bother with.


The blockchain trilemma is to develop something decentralized, scalable and secure at the same time. Bitcoin is very secure but it is not scalable for small fast transactions. Ethereum seems to be very popular because it has struck a difficult balance of the 3. Ethereum 2.0 will be more scalable.

Ethereum 2.0 will basically be 64 blockchains in parallel (current ethereum becomes the first chain of 64) This will all be transparent to the common user. Do you really know or care how the visa or debit network works at a technical level, or do you just trust it because everyone uses it everyday?

While it's still too complicated for most people it's like the internet was in the '90s. Too much hassle for mainstream use but it just needs some user interface improvements, better explanations and better PR. There are many 3rd parties developing user friendly interfaces just like developers did for the internet



Rusty O'Toole said:


> Apparently it is possible to verify whether a bitcoin is real or fake by tracing every transaction it has ever been involved in. Over time, this is going to take more and more time and energy to do as the blockchain gets longer with use, and the coins get broken down into smaller fractions. Is this done for every transaction? And if it isn't, what is there to stop someone from making duplicate or fake bitcoins?


I sync'd the entire ethereum blockchain on my 2011 laptop in a few days. My CPU was the limitation. I can't say for bitcoin but ethereum has options to just archive the old transactions you rarely need. There are different clients programmed in different ways to do this and the code is constantly being improved/refined for efficiency

If you want to verify an older transaction you probably need more time/resources but for the majority of nodes it makes more sense to archive the older transactions. Ethereum 2 will split this up to 64 ways again. Most nodes won't run all 64 chains but I suppose some super nodes could


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## sags

Who would conduct dispute resolution on the Ethereum protocol ? Who would reverse transactions ? How long would transactions take to verify ? Who absorbs losses due to fraud ? How does a customer pay recurring charges ?

These are all actions that VISA currently conducts. People "trust" VISA because they have a long successful history of these services.

They are actions that bitcoin doesn't conduct at all. Once the bitcoin is spent........goodbye.

Will Ethereum be any different than bitcoin in that regard ?

If so, maybe there will be some progress in crypto currencies, but it is going to take awhile to convince consumers.


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## m3s

sags said:


> Who would conduct dispute resolution on the Ethereum protocol ? Who would reverse transactions ? How long would transactions take to verify ? Who absorbs losses due to fraud ? How does a customer pay recurring charges ?


Ethereum foundation

This already happened in the past. Cryptocurrency protocols can be changed or updated with "forks". You can look up for example the ethereum classic "hard fork" which was implemented to reverse fraudulent transactions. You can still buy/trade "ethereum classic" today, but the vast majority "voted with their feet" and followed with the new ethereum fork.

Sometimes the network even fragments unintentionally and eventually sync's back together when software agrees by consensus which fork is the "real" chain. This is kind of the computers reaching consensus by algorithm. The users can also vote for changes to the protocol by signing with ethereum address, which can even be weighted by participation or other algorithm

There are already patents to vote for elections by blockchain. This would make elections far more transparent, efficient and valid as it is no different from any other trust based transaction. Obviously the user interface and public knowledge is not quite ready yet. But it's painfully obvious to anyone who understands the technology compared to hand counting ballots

The fact that ethereum survived a hard fork and is also able to improve/scale into ethereum 2 shows this is very possible


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> The blockchain must record the "spent" bitcoins or they can be spent again. Hence the requirement for an ever lengthening blockchain and time delays.


If the blockchain didn't record the spent bitcoins, they weren't spent.



> Also of note......every transaction of bitcoins requires verification by human "miners". How would one scale that up to VISA transaction levels ?


There are several solutions.

Visa doesn't record everything in a single database, it has a series of them.


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## MrMatt

sags said:


> Who would conduct dispute resolution on the Ethereum protocol ? Who would reverse transactions ? How long would transactions take to verify ? Who absorbs losses due to fraud ? How does a customer pay recurring charges ?
> 
> These are all actions that VISA currently conducts. People "trust" VISA because they have a long successful history of these services.
> 
> They are actions that bitcoin doesn't conduct at all. Once the bitcoin is spent........goodbye.
> 
> Will Ethereum be any different than bitcoin in that regard ?
> 
> If so, maybe there will be some progress in crypto currencies, but it is going to take awhile to convince consumers.


What do you mean "dispute"
The transaction either happened or not.

The parties can choose to reverse the transaction or not.

People "trust" visa, because they do a really good job hiding the cost of the system.
Most people think using their credit card is "free".


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## m3s

Visa is also shifting to USDC now (ethereum network) So I guess we're all in on this ponzi scheme!

There is some speculation that the 12 Mar crash was in part from whales dumping. But everything crashed at the same time including gold so.. I guess gold is also a pump and dump ponzi scheme?

Visa merchant fees are baked into every transaction nowadays. Those free flights aren't free


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## cainvest

m3s said:


> Visa merchant fees are baked into every transaction nowadays. Those free flights aren't free


So that means that Visa will tack on fees for USDC transfers right?


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## james4beach

I could create another math-based technology with the same characteristics (or a parallel concept) as Bitcoin. Then I can encourage a whole bunch of people to use it and popularize it on social media.

Anyone can do this. This is the core concern I have. Somebody started with nothing (something which has ZERO value), and convinced other people to trade money for it. If I can create the same kind of thing tomorrow, what makes BTC/ETC fundamentally valuable?

If your answer is "a critical mass of people who believe the story", the broad public has only been on board with the story for *3 years* at the moment. That's an incredibly short time. It's one thing for a social belief (the story) to last 3 years, and another thing for it to persist for 20-50 years.

There are already about 20 major 'crypto coins' in circulation today. they pop up every day. Because... they are created out of thin air, by anyone.

It's very hard to distinguish this kind of thing from an outright scam. And yes to be clear, I am concerned that Bitcoin and Ethereum could be total scams too.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I could create another math-based technology with the same characteristics (or a parallel concept) as Bitcoin. Then I can encourage a whole bunch of people to use it and popularize it on social media.
> 
> Anyone can do this. This is the core concern I have. Somebody started with nothing (something which has ZERO value), and convinced other people to trade money for it. If I can create the same kind of thing tomorrow, what makes BTC/ETC fundamentally valuable?
> 
> If your answer is "a critical mass of people who believe the story", the broad public has only been on board with the story for *3 years* at the moment. That's an incredibly short time. It's one thing for a social belief (the story) to last 3 years, and another thing for it to persist for 20-50 years.
> 
> There are already about 20 major 'crypto coins' in circulation today. they pop up every day. Because... they are created out of thin air, by anyone.
> 
> It's very hard to distinguish this kind of thing from an outright scam. And yes to be clear, I am concerned that Bitcoin and Ethereum could be total scams too.



But that's the point.
"a critical mass of people who believe the story", do we have that now, will we have it in the future?

When people stop believing, the currency loses value.
Has happened many times, will again.

Happens to all sorts of commodities, currencies, stocks and other "things".

Honestly thats why I think a technology platform (like ethereum) has a more solid "value" than a simple cryptocurrency.


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## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> But that's the point.
> "a critical mass of people who believe the story", do we have that now, will we have it in the future?


We've had it for 3 years so far. That's not even 'one presidential term' in length.

We don't know if it will persist into the future. It's possible that this "story" has been pushed by an incredibly effective social media marketing campaign.

What happens if the marketing push behind it stops? What happens if some large initial holders (pump & dump artists) are fuelling the whole campaign, and stop fuelling it?

Will it continue to have value to the broad public? We're only at 3 years so far.


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## off.by.10

james4beach said:


> There are already about 20 major 'crypto coins' in circulation today. they pop up every day. Because... they are created out of thin air, by anyone.


And that is one argument bitcoin evangelists never want to hear or just handwave away. They'll say "fiat is just a common belief too". But no, you can't just start your own fiat currency and expect it to have more value than the paper it's printed on unless it's backed by some kind of government/corporation with significant resources.

There may be a lot of nice features in crypto but those features do not mean the specific coin you're holding has to have any value. Or to put it another way: we may all be using crypto coins 100 years from now. But that does not imply that the ones currently in use will retain any value.


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## james4beach

off.by.10 said:


> There may be a lot of nice features in crypto but those features do not mean the specific coin you're holding has to have any value. Or to put it another way: we may all be using crypto coins 100 years from now. But that does not imply that the ones currently in use will retain any value.


I completely agree. It's trivially simple to create a new crypto coin. I saw a count in an article that there are now over 2000 different coins in existence. Maybe crypto coin # 3624 created in the year 2022 will turn out to be the really amazing one that pushes all the right buttons.

The ones circulating today could become totally worthless and obsoleted. Easy come, easy go.


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## m3s

cainvest said:


> So that means that Visa will tack on fees for USDC transfers right?


The Forbes article says Visa is integrating with USDC with the help of Circle Internet Financial.. visa doesn't own USDC

Many transfer services have already integrated with or use crypto blockchain networks, transparent to the user. This gives the legacy intermediaries the benefits of blockchain tech, while charging the end user the status quo.

Paypal is another recent service to add crypto integration (pointless really, but they will become irrelevant otherwise)



james4beach said:


> I could create another math-based technology with the same characteristics (or a parallel concept) as Bitcoin. Then I can encourage a whole bunch of people to use it and popularize it on social media.
> 
> Anyone can do this. This is the core concern I have. Somebody started with nothing (something which has ZERO value), and convinced other people to trade money for it. If I can create the same kind of thing tomorrow, what makes BTC/ETC fundamentally valuable?


You can tokenize anything using ethereum network/protocols by design. Real estate is already being tokenized in Europe

Fiat is no different. Canadian Tire can create Canadian Tire money. People in Afghanistan thought Canadian Tire money was real and so it was. Anyone can print paper money. Anyone can create crypto currency. Why is the USD considered the petro dollar rather than CAD? You can use USD almost anywhere because people recognize it as valuable and liquid. Bitcoin has more volume than some fiat currencies btw

Try spending Canadian Tire money or monopoly money somewhere. It's the same thing


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## m3s

james4beach said:


> What happens if the marketing push behind it stops? What happens if some large initial holders (pump & dump artists) are fuelling the whole campaign, and stop fuelling it?
> 
> Will it continue to have value to the broad public? We're only at 3 years so far.


The irony is that ethereum and other crypto currencies are notoriously poor at PR and marketing. It has been mostly nerds who are painfully awkward at communicating or marketing. If you dig into it you will see just how little information is actively spread (besides the scams)

We are only now starting to see people with communication skills who can follow the development and explain it in the form of podcasts, blogs etc. It's covered hilariously inaccurate by the mainstream media (it basically tells boomers what they want to hear so that they listen)


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## Rusty O'Toole

sags said:


> Also of note......every transaction of bitcoins requires verification by human "miners". How would one scale that up to VISA transaction levels ?


I thought the mining process involved verifying transactions and was told this was wrong. Can someone explain this? If the mining is not the verification then who does the verification? And what is the mining process?

There have also been comments to the effect that once bitcoin is spent that is the end of it. What about the person who accepted the bitcoin as payment? Doesn't he get to spend it? Doesn't the bitcoin continue to exist? The only cases I heard of where bitcoin disappeared were where someone lost their password, or lost their "wallet", junked their computer with bitcoin on it, or lost it when some dealer or trader went bust.


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## m3s

james4beach said:


> I completely agree. It's trivially simple to create a new crypto coin. I saw a count in an article that there are now over 2000 different coins in existence. Maybe crypto coin # 3624 created in the year 2022 will turn out to be the really amazing one that pushes all the right buttons.
> 
> The ones circulating today could become totally worthless and obsoleted. Easy come, easy go.


The vast majority are ethereum. Some new ones could be better but they will likely never get the same momentum to make it worthwhile. It's easy to design a better internet protocol today but good luck getting the world to switch now

People create tokens for anything. We could create CMF tokens for participation like reddit has done. Some people created tokens to give to their followers. Again you can create monopoly money or Cdn Tire money all you want..


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## m3s

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I thought the mining process involved verifying transactions and was told this was wrong. Can someone explain this? If the mining is not the verification then who does the verification? And what is the mining process?


It is for bitcoin

Ethereum currently uses mining as well but it began to transition away from mining on Dec 1. Mining requires a lot of electricity and expensive hardware. It cannot scale to the speed of visa

Ethereum 2 addresses the scalability problem with parallel blockchains. It is being phased in over the next few years. Coincidence that Visa took note?


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## james4beach

I should clarify that I don't mean that the underlying technologies aren't interesting or useful.

My criticism is of the specific coins in circulation today: BTC, ETH, LTC, etc. From a "wealth storage" standpoint, I'm warning that the price of these could go to zero with time, if it turns out that they were popularized by pump & dump artists. Or even if the public loses interest in the story. So far the public has only believed they have value for ~ 3 years.


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## Juggernaut92

This is an interesting post. Gotta keep your eye on the price of BTC. I think having some exposure to it is not bad but being too heavy on it may cost you.


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## MrMatt

off.by.10 said:


> And that is one argument bitcoin evangelists never want to hear or just handwave away. They'll say "fiat is just a common belief too". But no, you can't just start your own fiat currency and expect it to have more value than the paper it's printed on unless it's backed by some kind of government/corporation with significant resources.
> 
> There may be a lot of nice features in crypto but those features do not mean the specific coin you're holding has to have any value. Or to put it another way: we may all be using crypto coins 100 years from now. But that does not imply that the ones currently in use will retain any value.


" But no, you can't just start your own fiat currency and expect it to have more value than the paper it's printed on unless it's backed by some kind of government/corporation with significant resources."

Except we have Canadian Tire money, air miles, shoppers optimum points, Robux (Roblox currency) Vbucks (Fortnite currency)
Every fair with ride tickets has created their own currency, which has value for a period of time.
some events with Drink tickets, those are a form of currency.

and even when it's government backed it can collapse, like Venezuela today, and innumerable times in history.

Finally you say "corporation with significant resources", you say that like a corporate structure means something? 
The internet runs mostly on freely available software, co

I don't get the valuation behind bitcoin, or many of the innumerable currencies. 
I don't think there is a case for a fundamental value of ANY currency other than the mass belief/delusion. Why do you think there is so much talk about the US losing its status as "the reserve currency".

But just because I don't understand/agree that Bitcoin has a certain value, doesn't mean blockchain technology doesn't have value.
I don't know how to evaluate that either, but I can easily see that Ethereum has a non zero value, since you can use it to get work done.

Just like much of the value of gold is speculation, there are actual quantifiable industrial uses.

Ethereum has some actual uses, part of the value is the infrastructure that exists to support it.

It was created out of thin air, but many things have value.

Let take the DNS system, we agree to use a specific DNS system, which gives it great value. But someone else could easily set up their own DNS system. (again)
Who is to say that google.com will send you to an Alphabet (Google) server.

Nothing, except we all agreed to use one set of DNS servers, though this wasn't always the case. 

But if someone wanted to go set up their own system again (they've done it before), we could


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I should clarify that I don't mean that the underlying technologies aren't interesting or useful.
> 
> My criticism is of the specific coins in circulation today: BTC, ETH, LTC, etc. From a "wealth storage" standpoint, I'm warning that the price of these could go to zero with time, if it turns out that they were popularized by pump & dump artists. Or even if the public loses interest in the story. So far the public has only believed they have value for ~ 3 years.


I agree with 2/3rds of that.

ETH is a technology platform, not just a crypto currency play.


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## m3s

DAI is a ERC-20 token (ethereum) that is crypto-collateralized on the ethereum blockchain using smart contracts to track the value of USD.

I can exchange USD for DAI on coinbase for a 0.5% fee. I can then transfer it to my ethereum wallet for the cost of an ethereum transaction (0.25c USD today for a slow 5 min transaction) I can then lend DAI to compound to receive cDAI. The fee is again the cost of 1 ethereum transaction to cDAI and 1 tx back to DAI in the future.

So for a 1 time fee of 0.5% and let's say $1 USD in tx fees I am earning about 3% APY. No CDIC obviously but smart contracts can also insure assets


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## nathan79

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I thought the mining process involved verifying transactions and was told this was wrong. Can someone explain this? If the mining is not the verification then who does the verification? And what is the mining process?
> 
> There have also been comments to the effect that once bitcoin is spent that is the end of it. What about the person who accepted the bitcoin as payment? Doesn't he get to spend it? Doesn't the bitcoin continue to exist? The only cases I heard of where bitcoin disappeared were where someone lost their password, or lost their "wallet", junked their computer with bitcoin on it, or lost it when some dealer or trader went bust.


When a bitcoin is spent, the inputs are verified against the blockchain and new outputs get created. When the next person goes to spend the bitcoin, those outputs become the inputs for a new transaction. The miners verify that the inputs are correct by referencing the block they were created in. Keep in mind that all previous blocks have already been verified by consensus with the miners, so they only need to check the specific block(s) containing the inputs needed for the transaction.


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## m3s

nathan79 said:


> Keep in mind that all previous blocks have already been verified by consensus with the miners, so they only need to check the specific block(s) containing the inputs needed for the transaction.


Exactly. I have the recent ethereum blockchain sync'd on my SSD. The old transactions get archived into a "freezer" database on my slower HDD as they are rarely needed anymore

It's the initial sync that takes days to process. You need to be sync'd to process/mine/validate etc. There are now clever ways to speed up the initial sync, but once sync'd it's just a trickle of data

The blockchain does constantly continue to grow. For this reason I think ethereum's approach will make more sense as time goes on and adoption grows


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## doctrine

james4beach said:


> My point here is ... for those of you who are buying into these stories, don't rule out the possibility that they might be total scams. And I don't just mean the scammers around the peripheries, doing ICOs and stuff. I mean that the structure and innovation itself might, fundamentally, be a giant scam.


Fundamentally, I agree with this. There is some practical uses for Bitcoin and some other coins at the moment; because they are connected at least loosely to financial institutions, they can be used to move cash around from country to country, and even make some payments. However, the sum value of Bitcoin is not representative of the underlying value of the function it performs, in my opinion, especially if you discount the 'money printing' reason for owning it. Scarcity doesn't mean value on its own. If you've made money on Bitcoin, great, but I can't find a way to justify owning any of it beyond speculation or gambling. If that is your thing then maybe Bitcoin is for you.


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## sags

VISA has been applying for US patents on digital currencies since 2015. The latest patent filing reveals their interest is in creating their own digital currency. 

_In mid-2020, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office made public a patent filling done by Visa in November 2019. The patent relates to a “digital fiat currency.” It covers a process on blockchain by a central entity computer to create a digital currency. The central entity computer generates the digital currency for the denomination and links to the serial number.

In addition, Visa has been engaging with policy makers and organizations to help shape the dialog and understanding of digital currencies. Visa along with other participants is working with the “World Economic Forum on *a set of policy recommendations for central banks exploring the concept of Central Bank Digital Currency* (CBDC).”_


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## m3s

doctrine said:


> However, the sum value of Bitcoin is not representative of the underlying value of the function it performs, in my opinion, especially if you discount the 'money printing' reason for owning it. Scarcity doesn't mean value on its own.


What is the underlying value of gold or the function it performs? We measure the value of an oz of gold in USD. So how do you measure the value of a USD?

The price of 1 BTC in USD is a psychological hurdle. The USD measuring stick changes in length by the day lol. You could also say 1 Satoshi is 0.0002 USD and now it looks cheap eh. I would think stock investors get this concept as it is like 1 stock. You can split unit prices like stocks and the value stays the same. The integer is irrelevant...

Bitcoin really shows how little people understand value when all of the arguments against it apply to fiat as well.


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## off.by.10

MrMatt said:


> " But no, you can't just start your own fiat currency and expect it to have more value than the paper it's printed on unless it's backed by some kind of government/corporation with significant resources."
> 
> Except we have Canadian Tire money, air miles, shoppers optimum points, Robux (Roblox currency) Vbucks (Fortnite currency)
> Every fair with ride tickets has created their own currency, which has value for a period of time.
> some events with Drink tickets, those are a form of currency.


Guess what: your examples are backed by corporations which you can trust to be around tomorrow to exchange the token for a service. And that is precisely why they have value. If I were to print my own "get a free drink" paper, it would be worthless unless I at least had a lemonade stand. And even then...

The uncertain future of the corporations backing those tokens is why they have limited long term value and you wouldn't store all your wealth in them.

A government with a good track record and a large taxation base is a much better guarantee.


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## m3s

off.by.10 said:


> Guess what: your examples are backed by corporations which you can trust to be around tomorrow to exchange the token for a service. And that is precisely why they have value. If I were to print my own "get a free drink" paper, it would be worthless unless I at least had a lemonade stand. And even then...


That's exactly why decentralized finance exists - to be more transparent, permissionless, trustless, and interoperable



> On the night of Nov. 8, 2016, there was a surprise announcement on Indian television. In a live telecast to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that the country's two highest-denomination currency notes (Rs 1,000 and Rs 500) would be withdrawn immediately from the market


Why would you chose to trust a government or corporation? Air Canada just devalued its Aeroplan miles again


----------



## doctrine

m3s said:


> What is the underlying value of gold or the function it performs? We measure the value of an oz of gold in USD. So how do you measure the value of a USD?
> 
> The price of 1 BTC in USD is a psychological hurdle. The USD measuring stick changes in length by the day lol. You could also say 1 Satoshi is 0.0002 USD and now it looks cheap eh. I would think stock investors get this concept as it is like 1 stock. You can split unit prices like stocks and the value stays the same. The integer is irrelevant...
> 
> Bitcoin really shows how little people understand value when all of the arguments against it apply to fiat as well.


Gold has fundamental underlying value in terms of the function it performs. Nations use it all of the time to transact with one another. It is recognized by every single central bank in the world. And I can take a gold bar today and convert it to goods or currency in every country in the world today, no questions asked. Sorry, this is not true at all for Bitcoin; in fact, if central banks do go with a cryptocurrency, it will almost certainly be their own which they can control and govern.

I think dismissing gold and central banks is important to the argument for Bitcoin. However, I would humbly suggest it is far less likely that nations give up sovereign control of their currency than it is that Bitcoin goes to $1 million.


----------



## sags

The US Treasury had a hacking attempt and every US intelligence agency jumped in to investigate immediately.

A bitcoin exchange gets hacked and nobody cares, except for those losing their money.

It shows what the US government considers important and not important.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> Gold has fundamental underlying value in terms of the function it performs. Nations use it all of the time to transact with one another. It is recognized by every single central bank in the world. And I can take a gold bar today and convert it to goods or currency in every country in the world today, no questions asked. Sorry, this is not true at all for Bitcoin; in fact, if central banks do go with a cryptocurrency, it will almost certainly be their own which they can control and govern.
> 
> I think dismissing gold and central banks is important to the argument for Bitcoin. However, I would humbly suggest it is far less likely that nations give up sovereign control of their currency than it is that Bitcoin goes to $1 million.


I agree and I find this comparison downright silly, that gold and bitcoin are somehow equivalent things or equally arbitrary.

Gold has been valuable to humans for ~ 5,000 years in just about every empire and country on earth. Central banks hold 33,000 tonnes of gold. It was valuable before computers existed and well before _electricity_ was harnessed. Gold itself is a rare metal that also has convenient properties: it's soft and easy to work, chemically non-reactive, and lasts beautifully well over the long term. There are significant chemical and practical properties which help make it valuable.

Bitcoin on the other hand has only been valuable to humans (general public) for 3 years. It depends entirely on modern computation, an NSA-created algorithm, and the internet. The algorithms underlying it are quite arbitrary and can easily be replaced with imitations, copycats, and new variants.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The US Treasury had a hacking attempt and every US intelligence agency jumped in to investigate immediately.
> 
> A bitcoin exchange gets hacked and nobody cares, except for those losing their money.
> 
> It shows what the US government considers important and not important.


Well the US Treasury is a government institution.

Which US based bitcoin exchange was hacked, and did not have a government investigation?


----------



## MrMatt

off.by.10 said:


> Guess what: your examples are backed by corporations which you can trust to be around tomorrow to exchange the token for a service. And that is precisely why they have value. If I were to print my own "get a free drink" paper, it would be worthless unless I at least had a lemonade stand. And even then...
> 
> The uncertain future of the corporations backing those tokens is why they have limited long term value and you wouldn't store all your wealth in them.
> 
> A government with a good track record and a large taxation base is a much better guarantee.


Roblox was a tiny project for years, and as it grew so did the value, which is my point.

I knew people who traded Canadian tire money like cash growing up, and others that discounted it.

Also the "corporate backing" means whatever you think of the corporation.

I have far more faith in Bitcoin than my Sears Points.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I agree and I find this comparison downright silly, that gold and bitcoin are somehow equivalent things or equally arbitrary.
> 
> Gold has been valuable to humans for ~ 5,000 years in just about every empire and country on earth. Central banks hold 33,000 tonnes of gold. It was valuable before computers existed and well before _electricity_ was harnessed. Gold itself is a rare metal that also has convenient properties: it's soft and easy to work, chemically non-reactive, and lasts beautifully well over the long term. There are significant chemical and practical properties which help make it valuable.
> 
> Bitcoin on the other hand has only been valuable to humans (general public) for 3 years. It depends entirely on modern computation, an NSA-created algorithm, and the internet. The algorithms underlying it are quite arbitrary and can easily be replaced with imitations, copycats, and new variants.


You keep saying "bitcoin" as though that's a relevant comparison.

Ethereum has real uses, Gold has real uses. << That is my point.

"Blockchain technology has significant and practical properties which help make it valuable."


Finally bit coin has been around for over a decade, and there is a thing about "new" stuff, it takes a long time for the general public to start to value something.

You go back far enough and lots of stuff that we have seen value in, was worthless to "the general public".

Cryptocurrency, encryption, internet, email, planes, cars, uranium.
Going back even further stuff like Iron and copper were useless, until we learned to work with them.

The fact that you don't see the value, doesn't mean it has no value.
The reality that it's very hard to determine a valuation, doesn't mean it has no value.

We've even had items that were not valuable, became valuable, and are again not valuable.
Asbestos is a great example there. 

Even for real items, the value changes, depending on it's use and how much people are willing to pay for it.


----------



## sags

But........bitcoin is valued at $20,000 each so that is where all the interest appears to be.

Bitcoins have no value without the blockchain. Blockchain has value but isn't valued separately. Nobody owns the blockchain or pieces of it.

Visit the bitcoin discussion websites and all they talk about is HODL (hold on for dear life) to gain the vast riches when people are "forced" to buy their bitcoins to use. This is the whole concept upon which the scarcity value is based. Only 21,000,000 bitcoins and the owners will become rich from consumer demand for their bitcoins.

I doubt that companies will put themselves into that position and will simply create their own tokens, as companies are already doing.

VISA and other companies have filed all kinds of US patents on their own specific use plans. They want to usurp the blockchain technology for their exclusive use, so they can profit from it.

I would say if you want to invest in digital technology.......buy VISA shares. These mammoth companies are going to flatten coin speculators.


----------



## sags

Consider the effects of a single announcement from the World Economic Forum about an agreement among nation's central banks that a globally accepted digital coin will be created and used by all countries. According to VISA those plans are already in progress.

That would make Bitcoin and all the other digital coins worthless. It reminds me of the story of the scorpion and the frog and VISA is the scorpion.


----------



## m3s

doctrine said:


> I think dismissing gold and central banks is important to the argument for Bitcoin. However, I would humbly suggest it is far less likely that nations give up sovereign control of their currency than it is that Bitcoin goes to $1 million.


I'm not actually a fan of bitcoin or gold at all

I prefer to hold things that produce a yield for its underlying function. Ethereum is a foundation for a decentralized global computer. I followed the development of the internet and smartphones and just how long it took the general population to appreciate. A scalable decentralized global network is a very big deal imo

I don't dismiss that gold or bitcoin have a function as a store of value but I believe people are vastly under appreciating how blockchain technology will change every trust based transaction. Wire transfers verified manually and recounting ballots by hand just won't cut it anymore

Blockchain gives transparency to trust based transactions instead of trusting some intermediary. It is such a different concept many can't seem to wrap their head around it yet. Many dismissed this internet and smartphones, I remember!



james4beach said:


> Bitcoin on the other hand has only been valuable to humans (general public) for 3 years. It depends entirely on modern computation, an NSA-created algorithm, and the internet. The algorithms underlying it are quite arbitrary and can easily be replaced with imitations, copycats, and new variants.


I agree that it does not replace gold. I don't buy into bitcoin but I see it as the "gold of cryptocurrency" I don't like owning much gold either. I see both as problematic stores of value

I disagree however that bitcoin or any popular cryptocurrency can be easily replaced with imitations and new variants. This is like saying I can make a better internet protocol (true) and everyone will immediately stitch to the superior protocol (not true at all!)

People have created more advance crypto networks but everyone doesn't abandon the protocol that has so much already built on it. Volume of a currency is important (see USD vs other fiats)


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Visit the bitcoin discussion websites and all they talk about is HODL (hold on for dear life) to gain the vast riches when people are "forced" to buy their bitcoins to use. This is the whole concept upon which the scarcity value is based. Only 21,000,000 bitcoins and the owners will become rich from consumer demand for their bitcoins.


Yes the speculators turned me off from crypto for many years. Those are the wrong places to get information about blockchains but unfortunately the signal to noise ratio is very high.

You have to dig deeper into the developer discussions (which is not really on forums or reddit anymore it's mostly on apps like discord and telegraph now) and then you realize the real discussions are not about speculation and scams

Nerds aren't very good at communicating or PR. Due to this void in communication to the common folk, scam artists and others create a lot of noise for those trying to learn



sags said:


> I doubt that companies will put themselves into that position and will simply create their own tokens, as companies are already doing.
> 
> VISA and other companies have filed all kinds of US patents on their own specific use plans. They want to usurp the blockchain technology for their exclusive use, so they can profit from it.
> 
> I would say if you want to invest in digital technology.......buy VISA shares. These mammoth companies are going to flatten coin speculators.


Sags I have posted a Forbes article in this thread and started a thread about how Visa recently made an agreement to integrate USDC (ethereum blockchain)

More and more institutions are adopting ethereum blockchain solutions. You can create your own internet protocol if you want but what good is that if everyone else is on a different network?

Blockchain technology makes intermediaries like Visa redundant. I don't think they will ever disappear entirely (we have email and we can also still make a letter by snail mail after all)


----------



## MrMatt

I think my stance on gold is well described (and influenced) by the example laid out in this article.








Exactly A Year Ago, Warren Buffett Made A Spot-On Call About Gold That Would Have Made You A Lot Of Money







www.businessinsider.com


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> Blockchain technology makes intermediaries like Visa redundant.


Care to give a brief explanation on how your statement above is true?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Consider the effects of a single announcement from the World Economic Forum about an agreement among nation's central banks that a globally accepted digital coin will be created and used by all countries. According to VISA those plans are already in progress.
> 
> That would make Bitcoin and all the other digital coins worthless. It reminds me of the story of the scorpion and the frog and VISA is the scorpion.


Why would it make them worthless?

When the world was on the gold standard, silver wasn't worthless.

If "UN-Coin" comes out, what exactly would be the logic for Ethereum to shut down?
Do you think anyone would authorize an untracable, uncontrollable digital currency? Not going to happen.

No G7 nation or the UN will create, in the next few years.
1. A digital currency that is untraceable.
2. A digital currency that won't have some control mechanism of some sort built in.

I think eventually they might wise up and allow an untraceable currency they don't control, but I doubt it.
Even today they're working to block coins like Monero.


----------



## sags

Huh ? Governments have no interest in creating or allowing an "untraceable" currency. The last thing they want is a method of hiding taxes or criminal activity.

All it would take to crush digital coins is for the government to make them illegal to use.

The only people who would risk a felony criminal charge are the criminals.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Huh ? Governments have no interest in creating or allowing an "untraceable" currency. The last thing they want is a method of hiding taxes or criminal activity.
> 
> All it would take to crush digital coins is for the government to make them illegal to use.
> 
> The only people who would risk a felony criminal charge are the criminals.


Exactly, that's why we know they won't actually make a competitive digital currency.

Yeah, because making things people want illegal works out so well.
How did that work for marijuanna? It's a public health risk, but hey they want it.

Oh, we don't have "felony" criminal charges in Canada.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> Care to give a brief explanation on how your statement above is true?


If you give me your ethereum address I could send you ETH or DAI (USD) for the cost of what is called gas. The tx fee is based on the market rate rather than a fixed %. I could send you a million DAI for .25c gas or I could send you 5 DAI ($5 USD) for the same market fee, not a % fee. You can slide your limit for gas fee lower based on the network demand (cheaper at night) and you can slide it higher for a faster transaction

With Visa, Paypal, Square, real estate agents, banks etc they charge a % fee for their intermediary services. With blockchain the intermediary is provided by a mathematical algorithm that can be audited in advance and transactions are transparent for anyone to verify. Why do you think Visa, Paypal, Square etc are all scrambling to integrate with blockchain networks before people realize that they can send currency directly peer-to-peer?


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> If you give me your ethereum address I could send you ETH or DAI (USD) for the cost of what is called gas. The tx fee is based on the market rate rather than a fixed %. I could send you a million DAI for .25c gas or I could send you 5 DAI ($5 USD) for the same market fee, not a % fee. You can slide your limit for gas fee lower based on the network demand (cheaper at night) and you can slide it higher for a faster transaction
> 
> With Visa, Paypal, Square, real estate agents, banks etc they charge a % fee for their intermediary services. With blockchain the intermediary is provided by a mathematical algorithm that can be audited in advance and transactions are transparent for anyone to verify. Why do you think Visa, Paypal, Square etc are all scrambling to integrate with blockchain networks before people realize that they can send currency directly peer-to-peer?


But Visa is not really about "money transfers" but rather credit. Sure, they also sell you on features, like air miles, cash back, insurance, etc but those are normally not the main draw. If it was just about transfers with lower fees then Interac direct payment would have killed Visa and the likes years ago right?

Also, block chain or not, someone will have to pay for the infrastructure to handle said transactions. In other words, USDC is somehow going to have to pay Visa to use their network right?


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> But Visa is not really about "money transfers" but rather credit. Sure, they also sell you on features, like air miles, cash back, insurance, etc but those are normally not the main draw. If it was just about transfers with lower fees then Interac direct payment would have killed Visa and the likes years ago right?
> 
> Also, block chain or not, someone will have to pay for the infrastructure to handle said transactions. In other words, USDC is somehow going to have to pay Visa to use their network right?


For me Visa/MC is about money transfers.
They're lower fee (to me) than interac.
Anyone who uses Interac for money transfers is in my opinion putting themselves at risk.



I know too many people who were victims of Interac fraud.
It always took a significant amount of time, and in many cases they did not get their money back.

I know many people, myself included who were victims of credit card fraud.
It took almost no time, and I was never out of pocket, not for a minute.


----------



## m3s

USDC does not pay to use the Visa network. Visa pays to use the ethereum network lol

Everyone pays merchant fees to use Visa. It's very clever (at least for Visa) Merchants in countries that are more economically inclined (or challenged) already offer 3% cash discounts etc. They could offer the same discount for ETH or USDC..

Also credit is a good point. DeFi is still very new but yes you can already borrow/lend at better rates on DeFi (again cut out the intermediary) I already lend DAI


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> USDC does not pay to use the Visa network. Visa pays to use the ethereum network lol


I think you're misunderstanding me on network use. Right now Visa is connected to their POS merchants via their own network. I tap my card and on the Visa network it is approved (or denied) for the sale at hand right?

So, and correct me if I'm wrong here ... If someone uses a USDC Visa the same thing occurs except instead of using the transfer of the currency at the POS location (say CDN $) it would validate the USDC funds (on Visa's connection to the ethereum network) and then accept/deny the transaction right?


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

All fiat currencies eventually go to their true value which is zero. So will bitcoin although it may take anywhere from 5 to 200 years to get there.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> I think you're misunderstanding me on network use. Right now Visa is connected to their POS merchants via their own network. I tap my card and on the Visa network it is approved (or denied) for the sale at hand right?
> 
> So, and correct me if I'm wrong here ... If someone uses a USDC Visa the same thing occurs except instead of using the transfer of the currency at the POS location (say CDN $) it would validate the USDC funds (on Visa's connection to the ethereum network) and then accept/deny the transaction right?


Who knows what VISA is actually doing.
The thing is if you don't hold the keys it isn't really yours anyway.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> So, and correct me if I'm wrong here ... If someone uses a USDC Visa the same thing occurs except instead of using the transfer of the currency at the POS location (say CDN $) it would validate the USDC funds (on Visa's connection to the ethereum network) and then accept/deny the transaction right?


There already exist Visa cards that let you spend crypto on a Visa POS terminal. Yes someone profits off the currency exchange. These cards don't make much sense to me and they defeat the purpose entirely (maybe a temporary need until merchants realize customers want to pay in crypto)

Maybe Visa wants to make USDC Visa cards to pay/borrow USDC credit. Ok so you can pay 19% interest when you could get much lower rates on DeFi, pay 4% merchant fees and who know how much in exchange/mystical spot rate slippage etc. Sounds like something for boomers who don't understand USDC

I assume that Visa also wants to use the ethereum network as a backend transparent to the end user. Money transfer services already do this (they use crypto to transfer funds transparent to the user who overpays to use crypto networks because they don't know how to themselves)

The last time I asked TD Canada to wire USD to TD Bank USA they make me listen to and agree to a disclaimer that they may use 3rd party services to transfer the funds and that they cannot be held liable for 3rd party actions etc etc (wonder what the 3rd party service is and why do they need it to transfer to themselves?!)


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> I assume that Visa also wants to use the ethereum network as a backend transparent to the end user.


So I guess we'll have to wait and see how this plays out.

But in regards to your statement that "Blockchain technology makes intermediaries like Visa redundant." I think you're way off. Credit cards will be around for a long long time, blockchain won't change that.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> So I guess we'll have to wait and see how this plays out.
> 
> But in regards to your statement that "Blockchain technology makes intermediaries like Visa redundant." I think you're way off. Credit cards will be around for a long long time, blockchain won't change that.


Lets say you're building a store.
Would you rather pay $0.02/transaction (Litecoin) or 2.9%+$0.30 (Paypal)

Sure they'll be around, but unless they get the government to step in, they'll have to compete.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Would you rather pay $0.02/transaction (Litecoin) or 2.9%+$0.30 (Paypal)


Until you can show me a true comparison cost between equal systems you're point is moot.

Say when litecoin (or any other crypto) gets wide acceptance (like Visa, Interac, etc) by the same amount of merchants you'll never know the true costs.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Until you can show me a true comparison cost between equal systems you're point is moot.
> 
> Say when litecoin (or any other crypto) gets wide acceptance (like Visa, Interac, etc) by the same amount of merchants you'll never know the true costs.


The fact that they're not equal systems is the point.

The cost of a credit card transaction on the current network is around 3%
The cost of a litecoin transaction on the current network is less than $0.02.

The thing is that crypto transactions can drop to the marginal cost of providing the service, Credit card costs are massively inflated by an oligopoly.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> The fact that they're not equal systems is the point.


Yes, the point you seem to miss. Until I can go to the local store and buy milk with litecoin it is completely useless to me.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Yes, the point you seem to miss. Until I can go to the local store and buy milk with litecoin it is completely useless to me.


Ahh, we see the situation fundamentally differently.

But why would I care if it is useful to you? quite honestly I don't.
Just like Apple products are "useless" to me, I own stock because it returns good profit to me, because OTHER people see value there.

As a novelty I've made a few online purchases with Cryptocurrency for digital products and I've tipped several people with a variety of coins.
It's on the edge of usefulness for some people now.

My point isn't that it is a solution for everyday people now, but that it is a promising technology that is growing in acceptance.

I remember when cell phones (car phones) seemed to be a silly extravagance in the 80's, why not just use a payphone?
Lots of people saw the value there, even though for most people it didn't make sense. Today many people still don't think cell phones make sense for their use case.

I think cryptocurrency and the blockchain has value for some people today, and likely will make more inroads for many more. Though I agree some people may never see the need to use it themselves.


So is complete 100% adoption required, of course not.
We just need enough.

Think about the Canadian Dollar, to us it is very useful, but to the vast majority of the world, it's just silly coloured plastic paper with no value. It doesnt' really matter to us that to most people our currency is worthless.

I think crypto only needs a few million users to hit critical mass.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Ahh, we see the situation fundamentally differently.
> 
> But why would I care if it is useful to you? quite honestly I don't.


Yes I see your point ... was a little to specific there. How about ...

When the same number of people that currently use a Visa card can go to the local store and buy milk with litecoin it will be a valid comparison on cost structure.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Yes I see your point ... was a little to specific there. How about ...
> 
> When the same number of people that currently use a Visa card can go to the local store and buy milk with litecoin it will be a valid comparison on cost structure.


If it was an end user retail service, that might be relevant, but that's only one use case.

What about making a purchase without third party approval?
the VISA network doesn't even allow that.

The point with cryptocurrency & blockchain is a fundamental difference in the basic function of the technology.

What about a trade, without a third party escrow service?
VISA doesn't allow that either.

What about a transfer that we know has occurred, unlike a bank check which maybe never clears, when a crypto currency is fully confirmed, it is CONFIRMED, it is done

The point is that the new technology does new things, and THAT is where the value is.
If you think of crytocurrency as "like VISA but cheaper" you're missing the point.

The technology does things that current solutions don't.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> You keep saying "bitcoin" as though that's a relevant comparison.
> 
> Ethereum has real uses, Gold has real uses. << That is my point.


I keep saying Bitcoin because I am talking about the trading prices of BTC and ETH. They are basically interchangeable securities.

There are people out there who want to hold BTC and ETH in their portfolio as a store of wealth. I am questioning this idea. No doubt that Ethereum has real uses, but the coin trading price (ETH at $586 a coin) could still be a pump & dump scam, even if the tech is fundamentally useful. They are different issues.

The story of crypto coins, why you need them, is currently being blasted across social media. It targets young people and is pushed by some very shady personalities (like John McAfee) so I get a bad feeling about the *market price* of BTC and ETH.

Especially among young people, there seems to be many who think that BTC and ETH coins are a 'good investment' and they are putting cash into these things instead of bank accounts or stocks/bonds. I am concerned that these "markets" might be total scams and pump & dump schemes, so I'm concerned that people are going to get ripped off big time.

And unlike past giant scams of this nature, these technologies give anonymity to the perpetrators. We'll never catch them or prosecute them, which means we'll never recover the funds that are stolen.

To me, it seems that the "innovation" of crypto coins is much more aligned with the interests with criminals and con artists than regular users. That's not a good deal for us regular people. For con artists though, crypto coins are great!


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I keep saying Bitcoin because I am talking about the trading prices of BTC and ETH. They are basically interchangeable securities.


No, they're not.
They're completely different blockchain technologies.




> There are people out there who want to hold BTC and ETH in their portfolio as a store of wealth. I am questioning this idea. No doubt that Ethereum has real uses, but the coin trading price (ETH at $586 a coin) could still be a pump & dump scam, even if the tech is fundamentally useful. They are different issues.


I agree that there are legitimate questions with the valuation of ETH.
But that's why I'm not buying lots of it.

Just like I question the valuation of Tesla.



> The story of crypto coins, why you need them, is currently being blasted across social media. It targets young people and is pushed by some very shady personalities (like John McAfee) so I get a bad feeling about the *market price* of BTC and ETH.
> 
> Especially among young people, there seems to be many who think that BTC and ETH coins are a 'good investment' and they are putting cash into these things instead of bank accounts or stocks/bonds. I am concerned that these "markets" might be total scams and pump & dump schemes, so I'm concerned that people are going to get ripped off big time.
> 
> And unlike past giant scams of this nature, these technologies give anonymity to the perpetrators. We'll never catch them or prosecute them, which means we'll never recover the funds that are stolen.
> 
> To me, it seems that the "innovation" of crypto coins is much more aligned with the interests with criminals and con artists than regular users. That's not a good deal for us regular people. For con artists though, crypto coins are great!


Almost none of the big name cryptocurrencies are anonymous.
Most exchanges require real names to actually pull money out.

I'm also not sure if the money is being stolen, people are being swindled, or if they're simply buying something they don't understand.

I think this really comes down to basic investing.
If you don't understand why something is valuable, or how it will make you money, don't buy it.

I held off on amazon because I didn't understand it.
I also held off on a lot of tech during the bubble, because I didn't understand it.

I think those who don't understand the crypto space, should also hold off buying.
FOMO is a stupid reason to lose money.


----------



## sags

A globally accepted central bank issued digital coin is the most probable scenario that I can envision happening.

Technology advances quickly though.......so who knows.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> A globally accepted central bank issued digital coin is the most probable scenario that I can envision happening.


But why would anyone use it?
What are the advantages?


----------



## sags

Regulated, stable value, government backed, globally accepted, ability to reverse transactions, less security required for fewer intermediaries.......

And......governments desire to collect transaction taxes, so the transactions have to be transparent to them.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> No doubt that Ethereum has real uses, but the coin trading price (ETH at $586 a coin) could still be a pump & dump scam, even if the tech is fundamentally useful. They are different issues.


I currently agree, crypto currency is a pump and dump scam and some gamblers might really benefit from it ... if you play your cards right. It's always the "cool technology" that is promoted but funny how none of them really never gain mass acceptance .. weird huh? Oh wait, create a new one that's even better than the last ... and the cycle continues.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Regulated, stable value, government backed, globally accepted, ability to reverse transactions, less security required for fewer intermediaries.......
> 
> And......governments desire to collect transaction taxes, so the transactions have to be transparent to them.


We already have all that, with the current banking systems.

Crypto offers the security of not being able to reverse transactions, once they're confirmed, they are confirmed.
The current banking system doesn't offer this.

Also less security, as long as you have your keys secure, your money is secure.
You don't need to worry about hacks, and there are no intermediaries.
The current banking system doesn't offer this either.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> But in regards to your statement that "Blockchain technology makes intermediaries like Visa redundant." I think you're way off. Credit cards will be around for a long long time, blockchain won't change that.


Sure. The post office is still around even though we have email. I don't think my grandma ever opened an email account. I don't think she ever used the internet. We have online banking but bank branches never really went away either

I imagine most millennials and younger will migrate away from Visa. Boomers are probably beyond the age of significant change like my grandma was for the internet, email and online banking. For everything else there's mastercard, er, ethereum


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> I imagine most millennials and younger will migrate away from Visa. Boomers are probably beyond the age of significant change like my grandma was for the internet, email and online banking. For everything else there's mastercard, er, ethereum


Um, I'm in my 30s and let's be serious here. The crypto currencies aren't useful for routine transactions. Maybe one day, but right now, you can't really buy normal things with BTC or ETH.

Example: I went to the store to buy sardines. I have a few pretty easy ways to pay. I can use cash bills, or I can tap a credit card, or I can use a debit card.

But I can't pay for day-to-day stuff using BTC or ETH.


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> Sure. The post office is still around even though we have email. I don't think my grandma ever opened an email account. I don't think she ever used the internet. We have online banking but bank branches never really went away either


That's because there is still use for them, post offices and bank branches. Until someone can successfully make crypto mainstream it'll remain where it is ... not useful for the general public.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> That's because there is still use for them, post offices and bank branches. Until someone can successfully make crypto mainstream it'll remain where it is ... not useful for the general public.


Okay, but "not useful for the general public" isn't the same as "useless" or "total scam"

Kinaxis (supply chain management) isn't useful for the general public, but it still might be a good investment.


I think that the crypto space today is like an unregulated stock market.
Sure there are lots of scams and schemes, but there are some useful and valuable ideas.

Even if the actual implementation crashes, I think the following have some neat ideas.

ETH - decentralized computing
XMR - privacy
Iota - quantum resistance & distribution /tangle concept (it's not a "traditional" blockchain)

Lots of interesting development there, now you can argue what those technologies and implementations are worth, but that's a different question.

There is clearly valuable technology out there.
The existance of an implementation has some value.

Just because there are some "investment" scams, doesn't mean all "investments" are scams.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> That's because there is still use for them, post offices and bank branches. Until someone can successfully make crypto mainstream it'll remain where it is ... not useful for the general public.


It's like the internet was in the '90s. The foundation is there but it's not fast enough, it isn't user friendly yet so you have to know what you're doing. It's just for nerds trying to make it work 

And yet everyone uses the internet today! You don't need to use the internet but you live in a different world today if you don't. Disruptions this big take decades. Give it 5-10 years


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> I keep saying Bitcoin because I am talking about the trading prices of BTC and ETH. They are basically interchangeable securities.


No. They are networks. You have no concept of what ethereum is yet. For a very simple primer - imagine CMF running on millions of computers instead of a few central servers, and imagine being able to sign your posts with a cryptographic signature. Not a big deal for CMF but decentralization and secure identities is very disruptive. And that's only the surface



james4beach said:


> There are people out there who want to hold BTC and ETH in their portfolio as a store of wealth. I am questioning this idea. No doubt that Ethereum has real uses, but the coin trading price (ETH at $586 a coin) could still be a pump & dump scam, even if the tech is fundamentally useful. They are different issues.


Many crypto developers questions this. It's no different than people watching HGTV and then trying to make easy money by flipping houses in Toronto when they have no real knowledge of real estate. But just like everyone says Toronto real estate will crash, the truth is Toronto is the wall street of Canada. Ethereum has become the wall street of crypto.



james4beach said:


> The story of crypto coins, why you need them, is currently being blasted across social media. It targets young people and is pushed by some very shady personalities (like John McAfee) so I get a bad feeling about the *market price* of BTC and ETH.


Like anything else. There are scams everywhere especially where people think there is easy money. Crypto is an easy target for scammer now because people don't understand it but want to get involved. John McAfee has nothing to do with crypto development he's just using his notoriety to shill


----------



## Tostig

I'm very late in the conversation so whatever I'm posting probably has been stated already.

I find it ironic that people who lost faith in fiat currency jump to crypto. If paper money isn't backed by gold anymore, crypto isn't backed by anything.

Its value is only as much as the last person who bought it.

Might try flipping tulip bulbs, oops been done already.


----------



## MrMatt

Tostig said:


> I'm very late in the conversation so whatever I'm posting probably has been stated already.
> 
> I find it ironic that people who lost faith in fiat currency jump to crypto. If paper money isn't backed by gold anymore, crypto isn't backed by anything.
> 
> Its value is only as much as the last person who bought it.
> 
> Might try flipping tulip bulbs, oops been done already.


Paper money is worth what you can trade for it.

Crypto is backed by what you can trade for it. It's important that some cryptocurrencies (ie Ethereum) are actually distributed computing systems. So it has inherent worth, based on the work you want it to do.

Your view of crypto seems to be similar to some peoples view of the stock market.
A bunch of symbols that go up and down in price for no apparent reason.

People who actually understand the Crypto and Stock markets realize that some of those symbols actually correspond to things of value.


----------



## sags

Paper money is legal tender. Businesses are required by law to accept it as payment for goods and services.

I also fail to see how a non-reversible transaction is good for consumers or why they would want it.

That is like an "all sales final......no refunds or exchanges" policy in a store.

Retailers have tried that in the past and found out their customers went elsewhere. Companies today advertise their open refund policies.

Bitcoin has been around for 10 years. A few retailers did set up to receive bitcoins as payments. They have largely dropped the method of payment since.

It doesn't matter to me if people continue to "buy" Bitcoins or whatever coin is in fashion, except perhaps when it is used for dangerous illegal activity.

That seems the main purpose of digital thus far..........see Silk Road story.

Ross Ulbricht is the main story, but his dark web site had tens of thousands of criminal participants.

With a double life prison sentence plus 40 years and no probation........the government showed who carries the big stick.

When they want to shut down crypto and their networks.........they will.









Ross Ulbricht - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## moses

sags said:


> Who would conduct dispute resolution on the Ethereum protocol ? Who would reverse transactions ? How long would transactions take to verify ? Who absorbs losses due to fraud ? How does a customer pay recurring charges ?
> 
> These are all actions that VISA currently conducts. People "trust" VISA because they have a long successful history of these services.
> 
> They are actions that bitcoin doesn't conduct at all. Once the bitcoin is spent........goodbye.
> 
> Will Ethereum be any different than bitcoin in that regard ?
> 
> If so, maybe there will be some progress in crypto currencies, but it is going to take awhile to convince consumers.


You could say the same thing about interac transfers. The bank says that once it's sent it's gone and they do not reverse them.


----------



## moses

james4beach said:


> I could create another math-based technology with the same characteristics (or a parallel concept) as Bitcoin. Then I can encourage a whole bunch of people to use it and popularize it on social media.
> 
> Anyone can do this. This is the core concern I have. Somebody started with nothing (something which has ZERO value), and convinced other people to trade money for it. If I can create the same kind of thing tomorrow, what makes BTC/ETC fundamentally valuable?
> 
> If your answer is "a critical mass of people who believe the story", the broad public has only been on board with the story for *3 years* at the moment. That's an incredibly short time. It's one thing for a social belief (the story) to last 3 years, and another thing for it to persist for 20-50 years.
> 
> There are already about 20 major 'crypto coins' in circulation today. they pop up every day. Because... they are created out of thin air, by anyone.
> 
> It's very hard to distinguish this kind of thing from an outright scam. And yes to be clear, I am concerned that Bitcoin and Ethereum could be total scams too.


True, anyone can and has done this. That is why there are millions of "alt coins". That is my concern with cryptocurrencies as well, but it doesn't necessarily devalue the technology of the popular coins. 

In a similar analogy, rare baseball cards are worth a lot of money (rookie cards, etc). But nothing stops a company from reproducing a brand new package with those same cards (under a different brand). They will even be more shiny and new and last longer, but it doesn't mean that the new cards have the same value to the people who are willing to buy them. At the same time, people may decide that they no longer want to collect those old rookie cards anymore and they become worthless over night. These properties do not make trading baseball cards, or stamps, etc. a scam of any sort though.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Baseball cards, you set me thinking. What happens when the present generation gets old and dies off? Do younger collectors want baseball cards, and do they value them as highly? There must come a day when they don't mean anything to anybody and are of little or no value.
What other collectibles have become worthless or not in demand? I'm thinking of things like electric trains, Beanie Babies, collectible plates and other memorabilia that were popular "investments" in the 70s and 80s. Are there things that were once very valuable and sought after but now are not?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Paper money is legal tender. Businesses are required by law to accept it as payment for goods and services.
> 
> I also fail to see how a non-reversible transaction is good for consumers or why they would want it.


legal tender means it is acceptable to repay debts, you are not required to accept paper money for goods or services.

You don't see why non-reservible transactions are good?

What if someone decided that some of those deposits into your bank account should be reversed. 
Maybe your last 12 months of paychecks are reversed.

You wake up to find out that your checking accounts are now overdrawn.
Do you think that this is possible is "good for consumers".

What if you're a business and after you sell and deliver the product, they pull back payment? Is this good for the business?


----------



## moses

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Baseball cards, you set me thinking. What happens when the present generation gets old and dies off? Do younger collectors want baseball cards, and do they value them as highly? There must come a day when they don't mean anything to anybody and are of little or no value.
> What other collectibles have become worthless or not in demand? I'm thinking of things like electric trains, Beanie Babies, collectible plates and other memorabilia that were popular "investments" in the 70s and 80s. Are there things that were once very valuable and sought after but now are not?


Yep, something i've never thought of .. However, to play devils advocate (not that I care about antiques personally), people still like antiques, and historical things.. i.e. think about museums of what is valued there. Same idea with art, not everyone will appreciate it, but yet there are some universal truths (somehow) that certain artists are highly valued (Picasso, da Vinci, etc).

I think it's an interesting comparison, because art is something I do not understand or appreciate at all, but if I was to go to some auction and say "These are just pieces of paper" they would be upset and laugh at me


----------



## Ukrainiandude

Seeing how money supply in Canada and the US taking up parabolically I start to believe the opposite. Fiat money is the scam and crypto currency isn’t.


----------



## james4beach

Ukrainiandude said:


> Seeing how money supply in Canada and the US taking up parabolically I start to believe the opposite. Fiat money is the scam and crypto currency isn’t.


This is a popular narrative that crypto currency promoters use. It's an important part of the sales pitch.

The possibility that fiat money is a 'scam' does not make crypto currency any more legitimate. That's faulty logic. They can both be scams.

Today I got text messages from two different friends who are interested or excited about Bitcoin. It's hot again ... pump & dump in action.


----------



## moses

james4beach said:


> This is a popular narrative that crypto currency promoters use. It's an important part of the sales pitch.
> 
> The possibility that fiat money is a 'scam' does not make crypto currency any more legitimate. That's faulty logic. They can both be scams.
> 
> Today I got text messages from two different friends who are interested or excited about Bitcoin. It's hot again ... pump & dump in action.


It just reached a new all time high value, so people are excited again. When it's low, the excitement dies down... I wouldn't call that a pump & dump, but rather just human emotions.

I wouldn't say either is a scam, they are both just very different. And you're right, cryptocurrency promoters have to use this, but are they wrong? At least as it pertains to Bitcoin, new coins cannot be created. However, they can be forked and as you mentioned, new different coins can be minted.


----------



## MrMatt

moses said:


> You could say the same thing about interac transfers. The bank says that once it's sent it's gone and they do not reverse them.


They're lying.








Ontario man loses $1,000 merchandise in apparent e-transfer fraud


A Brampton, Ont. student who sells collectible running shoes says he was shocked when a $1,000 e-transfer payment he received was reversed by his bank.



toronto.ctvnews.ca





One major advantage of crypto currencies is that you don't have to trust a third party middleman.


----------



## moses

MrMatt said:


> They're lying.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario man loses $1,000 merchandise in apparent e-transfer fraud
> 
> 
> A Brampton, Ont. student who sells collectible running shoes says he was shocked when a $1,000 e-transfer payment he received was reversed by his bank.
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But perhaps the bank just took it as a loss, i.e. they didn't actually reverse it and retrieve the funds back.
> 
> One major advantage of crypto currencies is that you don't have to trust a third party middleman.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> This is a popular narrative that crypto currency promoters use. It's an important part of the sales pitch.
> 
> The possibility that fiat money is a 'scam' does not make crypto currency any more legitimate. That's faulty logic. They can both be scams.
> 
> Today I got text messages from two different friends who are interested or excited about Bitcoin. It's hot again ... pump & dump in action.


Yup
Both can be scams.

Bitcoin IMO is the least interesting cryptocurrency.
It's just the highest profile one.


----------



## moses

MrMatt said:


> Yup
> Both can be scams.
> 
> Bitcoin IMO is the least interesting cryptocurrency.
> It's just the highest profile one.


It's one that we know will likely be sticking around.


----------



## MrMatt

moses said:


> It's one that we know will likely be sticking around.


Why?

I don't know that, it has no inherent value, you can't "do" anything with it.

Like I said, without a clear use case where it adds value, I don't see the point of any particular cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin is the highest profile of these, it offers little apparent benefit, other than name recognition.


----------



## moses

MrMatt said:


> Why?
> 
> I don't know that, it has no inherent value, you can't "do" anything with it.
> 
> Like I said, without a clear use case where it adds value, I don't see the point of any particular cryptocurrency.
> Bitcoin is the highest profile of these, it offers little apparent benefit, other than name recognition.


Well, as compared to the million other coins. If you had to guess which one will last (if any will), which would it be?

Also, there is a lot of interest/money/development.. it's actually become hard to imagine that it will be gone.


----------



## m3s

moses said:


> Well, as compared to the million other coins. If you had to guess which one will last (if any will), which would it be?


This is like asking which stock to buy here without at least doing some of your own legwork

There's a lot of noise if you don't know who to listen to and who to ignore like anything else. For a start I'd recommend some podcasts like Unchained (ex Forbes journalist) Bankless, zero knowledge etc. The developers are all busy developing but they are the real source of information at this point imo. Mostly anyone trying to push something is a shill (no different than all the "advisors" and "experts" in the fiat world really)

Bitcoin price seems to react to the ethereum development. The 2017 craze was when everyone started to launch blockchains and decentralized apps on ethereum. People even trade bitcoin on ethereum now. Most of the altcoins you refer to are ethereum. Saying alt coins are threat to ethereum is like saying monopoly money is a threat to capitalism because anyone can create fake money. Do some homework.

Polkadot was supposed to be the ethereum killer. It improved on the ethereum concept. The problem is that so many things have already been developed for ethereum that switching to something better at this point would be like getting everyone to switch to a new internet instead of just upgrading it. Ethereum has been planning to upgrade to be scalable for years and just launched the first phase of that upgrade.

It's like anything else. The older generation say they prefer their established ways until they realize everyone has switched


----------



## MrMatt

moses said:


> Well, as compared to the million other coins. If you had to guess which one will last (if any will), which would it be?
> 
> Also, there is a lot of interest/money/development.. it's actually become hard to imagine that it will be gone.


You mean like Netscape at the start of the web? How about Napster and myspace?

If I was to pick just one cryptocurrency that will be around it will be Ethereum, because it was designed for distributed computing, and is already widely used for a variety of projects.
It does something of value, and for many things it's cheaper and easier to use an Ethereum based product than a competing technology stack.


What problem does Bitcoin solve?
If you didn't have someone willing to buy your bitcoin, what would you do with it?


----------



## moses

Good points for sure. To me personally the value of these is the fact that other people are buying them. You could say the same thing about gold, if no one wanted to buy it, it's worthless (which is almost true, except for the inherent values). The thing bitcoin has going for it is the mass adoption and the scarcity. The adoption is key, without that adoption it's literally 1's and 0's on a computer file. Same goes for paper money, it has the adoption (and the backing of the government), but in reality it's the adoption that matters, not what the government says.


----------



## m3s

moses said:


> The adoption is key, without that adoption it's literally 1's and 0's on a computer file. Same goes for paper money, it has the adoption (and the backing of the government), but in reality it's the adoption that matters, not what the government says.


Exactly

The government doesn't need to back DeFi but they need to regulate it. The government always takes a long time to figure out how to regulate things (they still haven't really figured out how to regulate the internet as it is global)

Personally I would rather see ethereum be recognized as something more than a commodity. I would be fine paying income tax on my ethereum staking income (and deducting the associated expenses!)

It only makes sense and it will happen as the dinosaurs die off


----------



## MrMatt

moses said:


> Good points for sure. To me personally the value of these is the fact that other people are buying them. You could say the same thing about gold, if no one wanted to buy it, it's worthless (which is almost true, except for the inherent values). The thing bitcoin has going for it is the mass adoption and the scarcity. The adoption is key, without that adoption it's literally 1's and 0's on a computer file. Same goes for paper money, it has the adoption (and the backing of the government), but in reality it's the adoption that matters, not what the government says.


So looking at the above answer you think Bitcoin will last because there will be a never ending line of people willing to buy it, because there is a never ending line of people willing to buy it.
That's a poor argument IMO.

That's also why I am not big on Bitcoin, I can't value it.


----------



## moses

m3s said:


> Exactly
> 
> The government doesn't need to back DeFi but they need to regulate it. The government always takes a long time to figure out how to regulate things (they still haven't really figured out how to regulate the internet as it is global)
> 
> Personally I would rather see ethereum be recognized as something more than a commodity. I would be fine paying income tax on my ethereum staking income (and deducting the associated expenses!)
> 
> It only makes sense and it will happen as the dinosaurs die off


Yup this all makes sense to me.


----------



## moses

MrMatt said:


> So looking at the above answer you think Bitcoin will last because there will be a never ending line of people willing to buy it, because there is a never ending line of people willing to buy it.
> That's a poor argument IMO.
> 
> That's also why I am not big on Bitcoin, I can't value it.


Nothing lasts forever, it's just my opinion that it will outlast much of the other "garbage" that exists in the space.


----------



## nathan79

If the desired function is "digital cash", there are certainly other coins, such as Litecoin, that are faster/cheaper to use than Bitcoin. This is mainly due to scaling issues on Bitcoin and lack of congestion on those other coins' networks. If Bitcoin were to solve the scaling problem, it would make a lot of those competitors irrelevant.

If the desired function is "digital gold", what qualities would a coin need to be a better digital gold than Bitcoin? Bitcoin already offers scarcity, high security, decentralized/trustless, mineable, and a large network with a lot of development. A replacement would need to offer all of those things and more. It wouldn't be enough to just copy Bitcoin, make a few minor tweaks, and convince a bunch of people they should buy your new coin. That's been tried multiple times already. The general public may not be very smart, but they're not complete idiots either.

The nice thing about Ethereum is that it's not trying to replace or improve upon Bitcoin. It has a completely different utility behind it, so it's not just making incremental improvements over Bitcoin. There are also competitors to Ethereum, but much like the Bitcoin competitors none seem to be able to offer a compelling reason to switch.


----------



## m3s

Coinbase filed for an IPO with SEC


----------



## moses

m3s said:


> Coinbase filed for an IPO with SEC


Exciting, will be investing in that one.


----------



## james4beach

Well I verbalized my concern. Go nuts, guys. BTC, ETH, LTC, maybe you're right, maybe they are the future and "cash" is the real scam!

Today on the CBC afternoon radio show, I listened in the car as a financial "expert" bragged about buying bitcoins for his kids. I got two text messages in the last 24 hours from friends who are excited about Bitcoin (again). And there is so much investor hype and excitement that Coinbase can do an IPO.

You don't see the warning signs here?

These aren't new currencies guys. They are just popular trading and speculative securities. You might as well buy TSLA and NIO while you're at it ... not much difference. They all have their own interesting "stories".


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Well I verbalized my concern. Go nuts, guys. BTC, ETH, LTC, maybe you're right, maybe they are the future and "cash" is the real scam!
> 
> Today on the CBC afternoon radio show, I listened in the car as a financial "expert" bragged about buying bitcoins for his kids. I got two text messages in the last 24 hours from friends who are excited about Bitcoin (again). And there is so much investor hype and excitement that Coinbase can do an IPO.
> 
> You don't see the warning signs here?
> 
> These aren't new currencies guys. They are just popular trading and speculative securities. You might as well buy TSLA and NIO while you're at it ... not much difference. They all have their own interesting "stories".


See the warning signs? Absolutely. 
I've said previously I don't see the value of BTC or LTC, I'm not buying either as an investment.

I do see value in ETH, just like I see value in TSLA. I just don't see enough value to justify their current price. Again I'm not invested in either. I watch them, because they're interesting, and maybe I'll eventually understand an investment case that is compelling to me.

If I can't explain how "investment X" makes money I don't buy it. << BTC and LTC are here
If I can't justify why the current price is a good deal, I don't buy it. << ETH and TSLA are here


To be honest, I'm kicking myself for not getting some bitcoin and playing around with it when it was pennies.


----------



## sags

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)


Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is the digital form of a country's fiat currency, which is regulated by its central bank.




www.investopedia.com


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Today on the CBC afternoon radio show, I listened in the car as a financial "expert" bragged about buying bitcoins for his kids. I got two text messages in the last 24 hours from friends who are excited about Bitcoin (again). And there is so much investor hype and excitement that Coinbase can do an IPO.
> 
> You don't see the warning signs here?


I do!

How is it different from all the kids at work asking if they should buy TSLA now? One kid made a killing but he started buying in long ago..

I posted on here how I was buying ETH in back March and couldn't believe it was almost down to $100. Nobody was interested then



m3s said:


> Late last night I happened to see ETH below $100 so I DCA'd some more and within minutes it was up 20% and another 10% by morning. The blockchains are struggling to keep up w the volume it was like 1am and coinbase pro was slow and reporting "degraded service" Crazy times


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Exactly
> 
> The government doesn't need to back DeFi but they need to regulate it. The government always takes a long time to figure out how to regulate things (they still haven't really figured out how to regulate the internet as it is global)
> 
> Personally I would rather see ethereum be recognized as something more than a commodity. I would be fine paying income tax on my ethereum staking income (and deducting the associated expenses!)
> 
> It only makes sense and it will happen as the dinosaurs die off


The government doesn't need to regulate it.
The government has no role in private acts, unless someone is being hurt.


I think this should go as far as letting people make stupid decisions. As long as they're held accountable for their stupid decisions.

I think, to a point you should be allowed to engage in risky behaviour, I don't want the government bubblewrapping the world.


----------



## sags

I hope poor people cash out and get rich from venture capitalists money buying their bitcoins before it all comes crashing down.

It would be wealth redistribution at it's finest. That Satoshi fella........a true socialist hero.


----------



## sags

The Trump administration (Treasury) has proposed new legislation that requires the exchanges to provide identification for all transactions over $3,000.

Both the sender and receiver information of the transactions will be required, names, addresses, dates, amounts, and purpose of the transactions.

The US government is saying it is to reduce money laundering, terrorist activities, and avoidance of US sanctions.

Surprisingly, Bitcoin prices barely budged on the news. It will create a lot of extra work from the exchanges though.

It might be one step closer to making unregulated digital currencies illegal.









US Treasury Unveils Stifling Crypto Wallet Regulation — Experts Break Down the Rules – Regulation Bitcoin News


The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a bureau of the U.S. Treasury Department, has unveiled its proposed rules on transactions involving cryptocurrency wallets. Experts in the crypto community have weighed in on what the new proposed regulation means, what crypto owners should do...




news.bitcoin.com


----------



## sags

Biitcoin does appear to be trending down at the moment, but it is interesting to watch the buys and sells for awhile.

I watched for a bit and didn't see a single transaction involving 1 bitcoin. They are all trades involving tiny fractions of a bitcoin.......like 0.002 or 0.004.

How much does that translate to in US dollars for those trades ?

EDIT......so I looked it up and at current prices of $23,700 USD..... 0.002 represents about $50 US. The trades appear to be between $50 and $200 mostly.

This must be all the small fry getting in and out.





__





Bitcoin Ticker - Tick by tick - Real time updates






bitcointicker.co


----------



## sags

True story for those interested......

I was in the dealership a couple years ago buying a new vehicle. I was standing in the display area and they were prepping a brand new Corvette.

My salesman walked up and I said......nice car, some old guy with money I suspect ?

He said no.......he actually had sold the Corvette and a luxury SUV to a young guy in his 30s.

He said the guy was an IT software expert and when bitcoin exchanges started up they needed the trading software for their websites.

They offered him a contract to build it, but he declined and said he would build it for a tiny fraction of the fees from every transaction.

The exchange agreed and he gets a tiny fraction of the fees on all their transactions 24 hours a day.....every day.

Bitcoin has been very, very good to him.......


----------



## james4beach

sags said:


> He said the guy was an IT software expert and when bitcoin exchanges started up they needed the trading software for their websites.
> 
> They offered him a contract to build it, but he declined and said he would build it for a tiny fraction of the fees from every transaction.
> 
> The exchange agreed and he gets a tiny fraction of the fees on all their transactions 24 hours a day.....every day.
> 
> Bitcoin has been very, very good to him.......


Smart move! And yes bitcoin has been very profitable for those building infrastructure around it. Coinbase is another example. There's tons of money being made there.

Still doesn't mean that a regular investor can get any benefit by owning BTC or ETH, though.

Here's a video from the man who was the real 'wolf of Wall Street'


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Smart move! And yes bitcoin has been very profitable for those building infrastructure around it. Coinbase is another example. There's tons of money being made there.


Thebest way to get rich during a gold rush is to sell shovels.


----------



## doctrine

The ETF providers cashing in on 1.5-2% MERs are also now going to be taking their piece of the pie. If the demand remains high, lots more financial paper to come. ETH also now available via ETF; expansion into more alt coins is likely to continue if money can be made.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The exchange agreed and he gets a tiny fraction of the fees on all their transactions 24 hours a day.....every day.
> 
> Bitcoin has been very, very good to him.......


People using ETFs, Visa, Paypal, Square for crypto trades and transaction are missing a major point of crypto currency - cutting out the intermediaries. Those central exchanges are convenient to convert fiat to cypto but they aren't required to trade crypto like stock exchanges are.

With DeFi anyone can earn those fees 24/7 by providing the liquidity for the decentralized exchanges. This lowers the fees for traders while also increasing yields compared to traditional finances that require intermediaries and their fees



sags said:


> The Trump administration (Treasury) has proposed new legislation that requires the exchanges to provide identification for all transactions over $3,000.
> 
> Both the sender and receiver information of the transactions will be required, names, addresses, dates, amounts, and purpose of the transactions.


Coinbase already requires US ID to buy crypto. Once you move crypto to another address it is global like the internet. Good luck with that. This sounds like congress trying to figure out facebook by asking Mark Zuckerburg how the internet works again


----------



## m3s

What is a decentralized exchange?

Imagine I told you if you deposit $(x)CAD + $(x).75USD into a contract to provide liquidity for a decentralized online currency exchange - you would receive a proportional share of all the exchange fees for the liquidity you added to that exchange?

I have never heard of this in the traditional banking world. In the centralized world you deposit money with an intermediary bank or institution and they decide what % to pay after they account for their profits etc.

Decentralized exchange means lower fees and higher yields. It's win win for the trader and the saver.


----------



## sags

But with Bitcoin, the mining that started out decentralized has become increasingly centralized with the introduction of massive mining farms.

These mining farms will control the mining and verification process and assign the fees they want to charge.

I don't think "decentralization" is a valid debating point anymore.


----------



## sags

Another problem is with the highly volatile value of bitcoins, but if bitcoins had a stable price nobody would buy them and supply would exceed demand..

People buy bitcoins expecting them to be more valuable in the future. They won't be interested in buying them if they are worth the same or less in the future.

Without a stable price bitcoins are useless for financial contracts. How would a person borrow 100 bitcoins today valued at $24,000 each and pay back 100 bitcoins over time in the future....without knowing what the bitcoins would be worth along the loan period ?

So bitcoins need both a volatile and stable price at the same time. It is a conundrum that hasn't been solved.

The people benefiting from bitcoins are the whales who own millions of them and are fabulously wealthy now. How many bitcoins are owned by the top 100 wallets and how many people own those 100 wallets ? Nobody knows the answer to those questions.

I also heard a comparison of transactions in dollars between Bitcoin and Paypal, claiming Bitcoin transaction dollars dwarfs Paypal transaction dollars.

The problem with that comparison is that Paypal transactions are between a consumer and a vendor......real business transactions.

Bitcoin transactions are between people buying and selling to each other, and can easily be manipulated by people transferring them between many wallets to give the appearance of many transactions.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I don't think "decentralization" is a valid debating point anymore.


I was talking about decentralized exchanges - exchanging assets without any intermediary

It is true that mining is concentrating into fewer locations. This is one of many reasons the more advanced networks are phasing out mining already

Still bitcoin is indeed decentralized. It is not a centralized intermediary and never will be


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The other question is with the highly volatile value of bitcoins.
> 
> How would a person borrow 100 bitcoins today valued at $24,000 each and pay back 100 bitcoins over time in the future....without knowing what the bitcoins would be worth ?


They would pay back 100 BTC.

You are just thinking in terms of USD or CAD. If 1 CAD is worth a volatile amount of BTC, you don't ask how much CAD you have to pay back in terms of BTC do you? The value of USD and CAD is changing all the time. This is mostly absorbed by companies because consumers think a car or book should cost X amount of local fiat

Crypto shows how little people actually understand money


----------



## sags

Nobody would agree to open ended contracts such as that. Neither party would know how much 100 bitcoins were worth in the future.

PS......the above statement isn't entirely correct. Some wealthy people may arbitrage that trade and "short" bitcoins for a profit.

Interesting that Peter Schiff accepts bitcoins as payment to buy gold from his company, but he only accepts the cash after the bitcoins have been cashed in to US dollars by a third party. He says virtually all companies that accept bitcoins as payment do the same.

So, they are basically happy to attract more customers but still want the US dollars as payment.

Therein lies a huge problem for bitcoin they have been unable to solve. All retall transactions are essentially in fiat dollars.........not bitcoins.

Most bitcoin transactions are transferring ownership of the bitcoins or moving them around to different wallets.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Therein lies a huge problem for bitcoin they have been unable to solve. All transactions are essentially in fiat dollars.........not bitcoins.


Absolutely

I asked my teachers in the 90s if I could just submit my work digitally. They could not grasp the concept as they barely knew what a PC was for. Now it is the norm, sags

My mechanic was complaining about visa/paypal fees etc. People are aware of the problem the lightbulb just hasn't gone off for enough monkeys yet


----------



## sags

I think the fiat system is going to fail at some point, but the solution isn't going to be a digital currency based on those failed fiat dollars.

More likely it will be a complete economic structure change to Modern Monetary Theory or a return to the gold standard.

Personally, I think a return to the gold standard would be the better option, because the currency would actually be backed with "money" that has real value.


----------



## Tostig

At over $33,000 USD or $42,000 CAD, I don't think it's going to be practical to buy a bag of chips or a coffee with it anytime soon, not even in bulk from Costco.


----------



## m3s

Tostig said:


> At over $33,000 USD or $42,000 CAD, I don't think it's going to be practical to buy a bag of chips or a coffee with it anytime soon, not even in bulk from Costco.


It's not practical to buy a bag of chips with a bar of gold either

Ethereum is a much better medium of exchange. There are several stablecoins on ethereum that follow the USD value


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Personally, I think a return to the gold standard would be the better option, because the currency would actually be backed with "money" that has real value.


Crypto really shows how little people understand "money"


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Crypto really shows how little people understand "money"


I think it's just a lack of understanding that
BItcoin is to dollars what satoshi are to cents. 
And that there are a lot of satoshi (or whatever the subunit is) in a cryptocurrency.


----------



## m3s

There's a fundamental misunderstanding of "money" that crypto brings to light imo

Gold is worth what someone will give you for it. A house is worth what someone will give you for it. A USD is worth what someone will give you for it. None of these things are finite or stable. The problems people seem to have with crypto currency is the same for everything else

The problem I see with crypto currency at the moment is scalability and user interfaces. Adoption can't expand until these things are sorted out. Last night I saw ETH transaction fees upwards of $150 because the network can't handle the volume. The #1 user now is the decentralized exchange Uniswap (+$1B daily volume)

SIM swaps are a major issue right now. Your account security is only as strong as your weakest recovery method. If you can reset your centralized exchange/email with an SMS text someone just has to port your SIM with some basic info. This also applies to your bank account with weak SMS "2FA"

I can't see boomers ever really adopting crypto but I can see gen x and down adopting it as it matures


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> The ability to perform trustless atomic swaps between 2 parties is a significant innovation.
> 
> Right now if you buy something there is a lot of trust.
> Buyers have to trust they will get what they paid for.
> Sellers have to trust they will be paid.
> 
> With Cryprto currency the idea that you can set up a trade, and it will only happen if both transactions take place, is amazing.
> 
> That's just one aspect that's particularly interesting.
> 
> Yes it does look like a pump and dump.
> Just like fiat currency, it has value because others think it has value.
> 
> That's why I think you need to separate out blockchain technology from the crypto currencies.


With crypto you have to trust that you went get robbed by the exchange running off with your deposit or someone managing to compromise your security. Kind of like trusting the bank or sticking your cash in a safe at home.


----------



## off.by.10

lol m3s you're really stretching your arguments now. Crypto as the answer to bad account security practices? Will it also replace locking the door to my house? 

I will turn your argument around and claim it's the people buying into crypto who don't understand money. The amount of handwaving involved is surely enough to power a small windmill and mine a few coins.


----------



## sags

Still.......as I posted in another thread, to be in the top 1% owner of bitcoin all you need to buy 0.28 bitcoins.

If you missed out on being a 1%er biker and a 1% wealth holder...........you still have a chance to join an exclusive 1% club.

For only 15 bitcoins.......you could join the 0.1% club and for 400 bitcoins the 0.01 % club.









This Is How Much BTC You Need to Enter Bitcoin’s Elite 1% Club – Economics Bitcoin News


According to the analyst, Jake Levison if you own 0.28 BTC “you're statistically guaranteed to be in the richest 1% of the world in BTC terms.”




news.bitcoin.com


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> With crypto you have to trust that you went get robbed by the exchange running off with your deposit or someone managing to compromise your security. Kind of like trusting the bank or sticking your cash in a safe at home.


Argent wallet has an interesting take on this. Either you trust Argent, yourself, or you can add guardians. If you establish 5 guardians then 3 of them have to agree in order to recover your account.

Coinbase recently added a whitelist address book. It takes 48hrs to add a new crypto address to your whitelist. This gives you 48hrs to freeze your account if your 2FA gets compromised (mostly SIM ports lately)



off.by.10 said:


> lol m3s you're really stretching your arguments now. Crypto as the answer to bad account security practices? Will it also replace locking the door to my house?


I mean crypto is uncovering bad security practices. Porting SIM cards to hack into email account or central exchange accounts is happening a lot lately. This starts with accessing someone's basic personal details from one of the many data breaches (name, email, number, address etc)

It just shows that we shouldn't be trusting a cell phone provider as the ultimate guardians of our accounts. They will let you port your SIM with some basic info. Yet Canadian banks use SMS codes


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> With crypto you have to trust that you went get robbed by the exchange running off with your deposit or someone managing to compromise your security. Kind of like trusting the bank or sticking your cash in a safe at home.


No you don't, that's actually the point, you don't need to hold it in an exchange, it's just "convenient".

I personally have some crypto, I've never held it on an exchange.

If you buy cryptocurrencies, for the advantages of cryptocurrencies, trusting or holding them on an exchange is dumb and defeats the point.
It's like owning physical gold by ETF.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> If you buy cryptocurrencies, for the advantages of cryptocurrencies, trusting or holding them on an exchange is dumb and defeats the point.
> It's like owning physical gold by ETF.


Exactly

The most convenient/legal way to convert fiat for crypto is a central exchange. Once you have crypto you can use decentralized finance to exchange at lower rates, earn higher yields, or borrow at lower rates etc.

Once the scalability and user interface matures this will make traditional banking look like wall phones and cable TV.


----------



## off.by.10

m3s said:


> It just shows that we shouldn't be trusting a cell phone provider as the ultimate guardians of our accounts. They will let you port your SIM with some basic info. Yet Canadian banks use SMS codes


No, we shouldn't. Which is why simply getting my phone number will not let you wire all my money to Nigeria overnight. Crypto does away with all the other layers of security so of course it needs bulletproof authentication. It's as much as flaw as it is a feature.


----------



## MrMatt

off.by.10 said:


> No, we shouldn't. Which is why simply getting my phone number will not let you wire all my money to Nigeria overnight. Crypto does away with all the other layers of security so of course it needs bulletproof authentication. It's as much as flaw as it is a feature.


It has bulletproof authentication.
The feature is that you don't need to trust anyone else


----------



## m3s

off.by.10 said:


> No, we shouldn't. Which is why simply getting my phone number will not let you wire all my money to Nigeria overnight.


SIM porting has indeed caused money to be drained out of Canadian banks. Just google "SIM swapping scam" for many example in Canadian news and warnings from authorities

The banks have written that it is your responsibility to protect your password and personal details. So besides the hassle of dealing with a bank, it is in good faith that they cover your loss

Someone stole your cell number? Acting fast is critical, this industry expert says

Fraud Prevention How to protect your bank accounts from the SIM swapping scam


----------



## moses

m3s said:


> SIM porting has indeed caused money to be drained out of Canadian banks. Just google "SIM swapping scam" for many example in Canadian news and warnings from authorities
> 
> The banks have written that it is your responsibility to protect your password and personal details. So besides the hassle of dealing with a bank, it is in good faith that they cover your loss
> 
> Someone stole your cell number? Acting fast is critical, this industry expert says
> 
> Fraud Prevention How to protect your bank accounts from the SIM swapping scam


Same with credit cards.. The banks are willing to accept some losses in order to encourage their use (especially online) and have done this for years. But it would be silly to say that we have not heard of credit card scams (theft), interac transfers used to steal peoples funds from a bank and a ton of other things that can happen when someone has breached your main email account and other services (paypal, etc).


----------



## MrMatt

Any thoughts if the Trump administration will be able to push through the new crypto currency regulations or not?
The delisting of "privacy coins" by many brokerages is a bit concerning.


----------



## moses

MrMatt said:


> Any thoughts if the Trump administration will be able to push through the new crypto currency regulations or not?
> The delisting of "privacy coins" by many brokerages is a bit concerning.


It's possible, but once that's done it could push the more "legit" and open coins higher as the institutions will be less afraid that they will go after those.


----------



## MrMatt

moses said:


> It's possible, but once that's done it could push the more "legit" and open coins higher as the institutions will be less afraid that they will go after those.


Sorry, I consider the coins which are fully traceable and tracked by the government suspect.

I also don't know what you mean by "legit"


----------



## moses

MrMatt said:


> Sorry, I consider the coins which are fully traceable and tracked by the government suspect.
> 
> I also don't know what you mean by "legit"


They may be suspect to me and you, but to the average investor they will appear more trust worthy as the government is less likely to shut them down over privacy coins. By "legit" I mean anything they are not actively attacking with legislation (privacy coins, previous ICOs/unregulated securities offerings, foreign controlled coins perhaps).


----------



## MrMatt

moses said:


> They may be suspect to me and you, but to the average investor they will appear more trust worthy as the government is less likely to shut them down over privacy coins. By "legit" I mean anything they are not actively attacking with legislation (privacy coins, previous ICOs/unregulated securities offerings, foreign controlled coins perhaps).


Well if I take money from my wallet and give it to you, there should be no need to report it to the government.
It's none of their business.

Also "foreign controlled" is an interesting definition.


----------



## moses

MrMatt said:


> Well if I take money from my wallet and give it to you, there should be no need to report it to the government.
> It's none of their business.
> 
> Also "foreign controlled" is an interesting definition.


Depends.. are you saying you are giving me a gift or what is the reason for that money transfer? Even barter is a taxable event which means we must report.. Gifts can be given (In Canada) tax free (but that's an exclusion they allow for).
Also, large amounts must be reported to the government with a reason (even if you are transferring from one of your own accounts to another in a bank).


----------



## MrMatt

moses said:


> Depends.. are you saying you are giving me a gift or what is the reason for that money transfer? Even barter is a taxable event which means we must report.. Gifts can be given (In Canada) tax free (but that's an exclusion they allow for).
> Also, large amounts must be reported to the government with a reason (even if you are transferring from one of your own accounts to another in a bank).


I don't want to live in a police surveillance state.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> No you don't, that's actually the point, you don't need to hold it in an exchange, it's just "convenient".
> 
> I personally have some crypto, I've never held it on an exchange.
> 
> If you buy cryptocurrencies, for the advantages of cryptocurrencies, trusting or holding them on an exchange is dumb and defeats the point.
> It's like owning physical gold by ETF.


I said you have to:

trust an exchange

OR

trust your own security precautions

Most people are overconfident with their ability to secure their holdings.


----------



## moses

andrewf said:


> I said you have to:
> 
> trust an exchange
> 
> OR
> 
> trust your own security precautions
> 
> Most people are overconfident with their ability to secure their holdings.


Absolutely. But there are some trust worthy exchanges now (Coinbase, Gemini) and some "relatively easy" ways to store coins safely (Ledger, Trezor).


----------



## james4beach

It will be very interesting if it turns out that the actual scam (the fraud) is the "stable coins".

Apparently a lot of BTC/ETH speculators swap their coins for "stable coins" to exit their positions. What if BTC/etc were just speculative vehicles -- the *exciting hook* -- to suck the money into the ecosystem. And then the stable coins (where people believe they are storing cash) are the actual fraud.

The way that scam would unfold is that things seem normal for a while, until there is a sudden big failure in the stable coins, where -- poof -- the money disappears. It would not be any fault of BTC/ETC and those vehicles would be perfectly fine, in this scenario.

So many ways this scam can unfold. I can't wait to find out! Scam artists are very ingenuous people.


----------



## moses

james4beach said:


> It will be very interesting if it turns out that the actual scam (the fraud) is the "stable coins".
> 
> Apparently a lot of BTC/ETH speculators swap their coins for "stable coins" to exit their positions. What if BTC/etc were just speculative vehicles -- the *exciting hook* -- to suck the money into the ecosystem. And then the stable coins (where people believe they are storing cash) are the actual fraud.
> 
> The way that scam would unfold is that things seem normal for a while, until there is a sudden big failure in the stable coins, where -- poof -- the money disappears. It would not be any fault of BTC/ETC and those vehicles would be perfectly fine, in this scenario.
> 
> So many ways this scam can unfold. I can't wait to find out! Scam artists are very ingenuous people.


Could be the case for USDT.. Unlikely the case for USDC (which is regulated).

Also, coins like DAI are done with liquidity and code.. could be a scam, but also they are being monitored and checked constantly.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> It will be very interesting if it turns out that the actual scam (the fraud) is the "stable coins".
> 
> Apparently a lot of BTC/ETH speculators swap their coins for "stable coins" to exit their positions. What if BTC/etc were just speculative vehicles -- the *exciting hook* -- to suck the money into the ecosystem. And then the stable coins (where people believe they are storing cash) are the actual fraud.
> 
> The way that scam would unfold is that things seem normal for a while, until there is a sudden big failure in the stable coins, where -- poof -- the money disappears. It would not be any fault of BTC/ETC and those vehicles would be perfectly fine, in this scenario.
> 
> So many ways this scam can unfold. I can't wait to find out! Scam artists are very ingenuous people.


I don't think ETH is a scam. 

I do think crypto is a great place for scammers to try and profit from legitimate technologies.

Tulips aren't a scam, they're my second favourite flower.
That doesn't mean there weren't scammers during the tulip bubble.


----------



## andrewf

I don't see how it could be a scam. It is a speculative bubble.


----------



## MrMatt

andrewf said:


> I don't see how it could be a scam. It is a speculative bubble.


Some are scams, they preassign themselves a lot of coins, then list them and simply cash out.

The thing about established coins is that they aren't massively premined so that specific scam won't work.


----------



## james4beach

andrewf said:


> I don't see how it could be a scam. It is a speculative bubble.


Sure, it's a speculative bubble, but it could also be a pump & dump scam.

The way it could be a scam is that BTC, ETC, and many of these other "coins" have concentrated ownership. There are few people who hold large amounts of them. The active trading volume is just a small fraction of total coins.

That opens the door for manipulation. Many coin exchanges have also been caught doing wash trades and manipulating prices, so we have lots of reason to believe that coin prices are manipulated by big players. There are many fake trades happening which aren't real market trades -- but they move the ticker upward.

The way it could all be a scam is that a relatively few number of large players could be orchestrating a pump & dump fraud. It's possible that there are very few coins in active circulation in true public trading. If the actual trading volume is low... very possible and no way to confirm... then it's easy to manipulate the prices. And easy to run a pump & dump scheme.

The price manipulation and ticker manipulation causes the pumping, which excites more people and draws more money in. That's the pump. Next would come the dump, as large holders sell to the gullible latecomers.

That's what you get with unregulated securities. We don't know for sure whether it's a pump & dump scam but I think it's possible.


----------



## Thal81

I'm having such a strong early 2018 déjà vu right now. It was only 3 years ago but somehow people haven't learned. Nothing has changed by the way, this is still a virtual "currency" that has no use in everyday life and will never be adopted by governments. The shitshow will be spectacular when it starts trending down.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Sure, it's a speculative bubble, but it could also be a pump & dump scam.
> 
> The way it could be a scam is that BTC, ETC, and many of these other "coins" have concentrated ownership. There are few people who hold large amounts of them. The active trading volume is just a small fraction of total coins.
> 
> That opens the door for manipulation. Many coin exchanges have also been caught doing wash trades and manipulating prices, so we have lots of reason to believe that coin prices are manipulated by big players. There are many fake trades happening which aren't real market trades -- but they move the ticker upward.
> 
> The way it could all be a scam is that a relatively few number of large players could be orchestrating a pump & dump fraud. It's possible that there are very few coins in active circulation in true public trading. If the actual trading volume is low... very possible and no way to confirm... then it's easy to manipulate the prices. And easy to run a pump & dump scheme.
> 
> The price manipulation and ticker manipulation causes the pumping, which excites more people and draws more money in. That's the pump. Next would come the dump, as large holders sell to the gullible latecomers.
> 
> That's what you get with unregulated securities. We don't know for sure whether it's a pump & dump scam but I think it's possible.


For the big coins the few people is several thousand accounts.

For small coins (or sh!tcoins) sure, lots of pump and dump.

I agree this is the issue with unregulated markets. You likely don't know what is going on, and disclosure is weak.
But if you still choose to invest... that's your choice.


----------



## nathan79

I find it unlikely that any sort of manipulation is a major driving force behind this or any of the previous crypto bubbles. That's like saying that money laundering is the cause of the real estate bubble -- no, they (the money launderers) just saw there was a party going on so they joined in. The general public, the media, and corporate players are perfectly capable of starting the party on their own. It's the same with Bitcoin -- the crooks and scammers only showed up because they heard a lot of noise. Why would they waste effort trying to start something when they can just let everyone else do the heavy lifting.

In the case of Bitcoin, the underlying conditions that lead up to this point are pretty obvious...


crypto didn't fade away in 2018 like many thought it would, and the ecosystems have continued to grow quietly over the last 3 years
enough time had passed since the last bubble pop that many people who got burned had moved on, while new blood slowly replaced them
COVID-induced unprecedented government stimulus with no end in sight
a large amount of people sitting at home with nothing to do, receiving free money from the government
younger generations feel screwed by boomers/government and desire to opt out of system
every other asset is priced for perfection, so why not dump money where there's potential upside
a wave of institutional buying in late 2020
lack of faith in the ability of governments to control inflation long-term

Interest had already been growing quietly in the second half of 2020 before things really took off in October. Institutional buyers such as MicroStrategy were buying large amounts of Bitcoin in August. Now we're seeing waves of retail buyers. If you check out Reddit crypto threads, they're full of complaints about long wait times to get verified on exchanges. Exchanges are extremely backlogged and are having to hire more people to keep up with the new registrations.

Although we're quite overextended, I think it's possible that this bubble has a ways to run. The price should sustain and possibly grow as long as new blood continues to flow into exchanges. Keep a close eye on Reddit crypto and exchange sub-Reddits to gauge sentiment. I'm not making any predictions -- it could crash tomorrow or go to 90K for all I know.


----------



## m3s

A lot of adoption and development took off in 2020 along with the endless money printing. In Jan/Feb I was already thinking a pandemic would be big for things like gold and crypto

Too many things happened this year to list them all here if you haven't been following along. I have only been responding directly to the criticism but can't repost it all here for you

Regulatory
US recently approved banks to trade/hold USD stablecoins - these are ERC-20 ethereum tokens
Coinbase IPO recently announced - this is huge for SEC to acknowledge the market

Adoption
Visa announced partnership with USDC - again ethereum ERC-20 stablecoin token
PayPal now trading bitcoin and ethereum

Development
ETH 2.0 - successful launch in Dec but the scalability benefits won't be seen for years
DeFi - decentralized exchanges, lending, borrowing already started on the ethereum blockchain even without ETH 2.0

I see ethereum as the digital oil of a global decentralized computer. This addresses the issues of FB/Googles having too much centralized control over the internet

Even pension funds are selling gold for some BTC now. I think BTC is too clunky and energy inefficient but it is more scarce (digital gold) unlike ethereum (digital oil)


----------



## james4beach

Thal81 said:


> I'm having such a strong early 2018 déjà vu right now. It was only 3 years ago but somehow people haven't learned. Nothing has changed by the way, this is still a virtual "currency" that has no use in everyday life and will never be adopted by governments. The shitshow will be spectacular when it starts trending down.


People always forget. More likely, you get a new crop of suckers


----------



## sags

Bitcoins have acquired no assets in the run up from 8 cents to $40,000 so there is no intrinsic value.

The "market value" of bitcoin is solely based on the last sale price of bitcoin on the exchanges. It represents nothing.

Supply and demand economics = when the speculative demand stops.......the coin price drops.


----------



## nathan79

m3s said:


> A lot of adoption and development took off in 2020 along with the endless money printing. In Jan/Feb I was already thinking a pandemic would be big for things like gold and crypto
> 
> Too many things happened this year to list them all here if you haven't been following along. I have only been responding directly to the criticism but can't repost it all here for you
> 
> Regulatory
> US recently approved banks to trade/hold USD stablecoins - these are ERC-20 ethereum tokens
> Coinbase IPO recently announced - this is huge for SEC to acknowledge the market


Yeah, I remember thinking similar. There had been a lot of discussion about how Bitcoin might behave during a recession... the consensus was that it would crash along with everything else, but then rise to greater heights in the recovery. Turned out that's exactly what happened.

I forgot to mention the regulatory stuff... that's important because it spurred a lot of the institutional uptake.


----------



## sags

Are the whales starting to dump ?

Someone just moved $850 million in old bitcoins and the price of bitcoins dropped $2,000.

Also, one of the experts on bitcoins and blockchain says a quantum computer will be developed that will break the blockchain.

So much for blockchain as a permanently secure solution.









Quantum Computers might steal Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin fortune


A highly revered crypto strategist, Andreas Antonopoulos, recently disclosed via a Youtube interview that Satoshi Nakamoto’s massive Bitcoin trove would




nairametrics.com


----------



## m3s

nathan79 said:


> I forgot to mention the regulatory stuff... that's important because it spurred a lot of the institutional uptake.


Just wait until Elon Musk announces TSLA will accept BTC and ETH


----------



## sags

Another whale spending old coins from 2010. The bitcoin price has fallen $4,000 from the all time high.









Sleeping Bitcoins Worth $40 Million Move- Mystery Miner Spends Another 1,000 BTC From 2010 Block Rewards – News Bitcoin News


On January 10, another strange string of 20 bitcoin block rewards from 2010 was spent after sitting idle for over ten years.




news.bitcoin.com


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Just wait until Elon Musk announces TSLA will accept BTC and ETH


Yeah, he's already pissed off the SEC a few times, what's a few more?


----------



## hfp75

The price is currently down BUT I have a feeling on Monday it will will revert as this is just an oportinuty for BTC beleivers. 

I have not read anything that should spook the market over the weekend....


----------



## james4beach

Oh no, my coinz are crashing!


----------



## sags

Memories of Bre-X...........


----------



## MrBlackhill

Elon Musk, the world's richest man, wants to be paid in Bitcoin.

Should that be considered bullish for the Bitcoin? Or is he so wealthy that he doesn't care?









Elon Musk, The World’s Richest Person, Wants To Be Paid In Bitcoin


Elon Musk, the billionaire founder of Tesla and SpaceX and who has just become the world's richest man, has said he would never turn down being paid in the cryptocurrency bitcoin...




www.forbes.com


----------



## MrMatt

$150 billion wiped off cryptocurrency market in 24 hours as bitcoin pulls back


Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, fell over 10% from a day earlier to $34,200, according to Coin Metrics data.




www.cnbc.com





I love the sensationalist headline, paper gains and paper losses on one of the most speculative assets around.


----------



## james4beach

I honestly think that Bitcoin and crypto coinz in general mostly appeal to the gambling crowd. It also now appeals to Wall Street speculators and traders, since there is money to be made in active trading/arbitrage in these new, unregulated, inefficient markets.

All of that is fine, and I also think gambling is fun, but gambling & active trading are very different concerns than long term investment.

None of this means that BTC or ETH are viable long term assets to invest in. I'm really disturbed that CNBC and Bloomberg are actually bringing on Bitcoin guests and shills. This is deceiving some investors into thinking this is a reasonable asset to invest in for the long term... it really is not.

Gambling and speculation though, yes absolutely.


----------



## Eder

*U.K. Regulator Warns Crypto Investors Risk Losing ‘All Their Money’*










U.K. Regulator Warns Crypto Investors Risk Losing ‘All Their Money’


The U.K.’s financial watchdog has a stark warning for consumers looking to profit from the latest crypto boom: be ready to lose everything.




www.bloomberg.com


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> I honestly think that Bitcoin and crypto coinz in general mostly appeal to the gambling crowd. It also now appeals to Wall Street speculators and traders, since there is money to be made in active trading/arbitrage in these new, unregulated, inefficient markets.


The underlying tech is very appealing to those who track or contribute to it. There's definitely a blind speculative crowd just looking to get rich quick without understanding the tech itself. It will still take years for the tech to mature - very similar to the 2000 tech bubble imo. Given enough time that tech delivered 5-10 years later but speculators/traders trying to get rich caused a bubble too soon



james4beach said:


> None of this means that BTC or ETH are viable long term assets to invest in. I'm really disturbed that CNBC and Bloomberg are actually bringing on Bitcoin guests and shills. This is deceiving some investors into thinking this is a reasonable asset to invest in for the long term... it really is not.


I watch those network business shows at work and their understanding is extremely poor. Unlike stocks with insider knowledge that is guarded and released strategically with marketing spins, many of these blockchain projects are open source. You can follow and even chat directly with the developers very easily. The transparency is far better but but network TV is not designed to educate.


----------



## m3s

US recently approved banks to use USD stablecoins. The crypto market took off a few days before that announcement.

The main USD stablecoins are USDC, DAI and USDT. USDT is supposed to be backed by USD 1:1 but this is under investigation. Depending what is revealed about USDT investigation in the coming weeks will likely determine whether crypto soars or crashes (USDT is 3rd in market cap after ETH and most of that money came in 2020)

There's a lot of regulatory unknowns and there will be for years. Don't FOMO in at the top like people did in 2017.. I DCA'd while nobody was interested


----------



## m3s

m3s said:


> Just wait until Elon Musk announces TSLA will accept BTC and ETH


This was written 31 days ago

Now there are APPL rumours


----------



## sags

Musk said Tesla "may" accept bitcoins, but it remains to be seen if he will price vehicles in bitcoins.

If it is simply a transfer of bitcoins to fiat before the purchase.....there is nothing new there.

One of bitcoins biggest detractors Peter Schiff already accepts payment by bitcoin for gold.....but it goes through an exchange first and Schiff Gold gets paid in US dollars. 

If Tesla prices vehicles in bitcoins.........that would be very interesting to see how he handles the fluctuation in the value every second.


----------



## m3s

Everything is priced in USD. It is the reserve currency of the world

It wasn't always. It won't always be.


----------



## sags

So bitcoins are just a very inconvenient and unnecessary intermediary step in the process of buying a Tesla ?


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> So bitcoins are just a very inconvenient and unnecessary intermediary step in the process of buying a Tesla ?


As a BTC holder, all I have to do is send the payment to Tesla in BTC. That is a lot less hassle than sending my BTC to an exchange, selling them, sending a wire to my bank, then finally sending the payment to Tesla. That's like three extra steps.

It's entirely up to Tesla if they want to inconvenience themselves with exchanging the BTC for USD. By accepting BTC, they're agreeing to handle all of the dirty work. I am curious how much of a premium over spot price they will charge.


----------



## Ukrainiandude

sags said:


> So bitcoins are just a very inconvenient and unnecessary intermediary step in the process of buying a Tesla ?


Unit Tesla starts to pay its employees in crypto


----------



## MrBlackhill

This random guy on YouTube tries to figure out what it means for Tesla to accept Bitcoins. Maybe his interpretation is wrong, but if it isn't, it's pretty interesting...






(By the way, that random guy on YouTube is some kind of workaholic making millions on YouTube, but watch how many videos he posts... about 3 to 8 videos _*per day!*_)


----------



## Tostig

nathan79 said:


> ... I am curious how much of a premium over spot price they will charge.


I wouldn't doubt in the sales contract, they'll make it a condition that the customer has to make up the difference in the case of bitcoin volatility.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Maybe his interpretation is wrong, but if it isn't, it's pretty interesting...
> 
> (By the way, that random guy on YouTube is some kind of workaholic making millions on YouTube, but watch how many videos he posts... about 3 to 8 videos _*per day!*_)


MicroStrategy just held a huge virtual conference to explain their digital asset playbook to corporate execs. Many big US institutions are interested

They use the exact same indefinite-lived intangible assets, impairment losses etc in their reports

Also yes it's crazy how many YouTubers make bank nowadays. The successful ones are basically running their own TV show (who still watches old school TV?)


----------



## Ukrainiandude

m3s said:


> Also yes it's crazy how many YouTubers make bank nowadays.


But they only get paid per view if you don’t use AdBlocker.


----------



## m3s

Ukrainiandude said:


> But they only get paid per view if you don’t use AdBlocker.


Or use Brave browser and tip them in BAT (crypto)

Or click on their affiliate or referral links in the description below

Or cause more people to view based on YouTube's algorithm (like and subscribe!)


----------



## james4beach

Does anyone else here use Coinbase? I have an account which holds the small amount of BTC that I bought some time ago.

There's a segment of the site, on the left, called Earn rewards.

This is interesting. They will show you videos presenting info on various bull*** coinz, and if you watch the video and take a quiz, they'll pay you a buck or two worth of that (possibly worthless) coin. But the quizzes are pretty straightforward and predictable, so I found that I sometimes only have to watch a few seconds to get the gist of it and understand what kind of bull*** they're getting at.

Just watch for keywords and broad concepts. I calculated that it took me 18 minutes to rapidly go through the quizzes and earn $42 worth of coins, for a very respectable *$140 per hour* of my time. Mind you, I think it helps if you have a technical background.

So now my account holds a random mix of various bull**** coinz. I guess I'll have to decide whether to take the $42 and run, or leave it invested in the miscellaneous coinz that are revolutionizing the world.


----------



## james4beach

Cryptocurrencies are shining again, in their perfect use case.

Ransomware cyber attackers have just caused the shutdown of the biggest gasoline pipeline in the US, Colonial Pipeline. This is the main source of the eastern US's gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

As usual, criminals are demanding payment in cryptocurrencies. What a useful tool!


----------



## m3s

Yes always blame the gun not the shooter

Good thing if crypto is all they're after


----------



## off.by.10

m3s said:


> Yes always blame the gun not the shooter
> 
> Good thing if crypto is all they're after


Well at least with guns you could argue that there are other ways to kill a lot of people fairly quickly and easily.

Not so with crypto. It enables a new kind of crime and fully deserves the blame for that. Ransomware would not exist on this scale without such a convenient way to extract money from the victims.


----------



## james4beach

off.by.10 said:


> Not so with crypto. It enables a new kind of crime and fully deserves the blame for that. Ransomware would not exist on this scale without such a convenient way to extract money from the victims.


Yeah, I think the cryptocurrencies deserve blame here. They are basically useless for many forms of common payment... totally pointless for buying any common goods and services. Point of sale with visa/mastercard and even debit transactions is far more useful and efficient for practically everything.

Crypto coinz are *uniquely* well-suited for many illegal activities. Ransomware, extortion, hiding money from the government, evading capital controls, international money laundering, large drug & weapons transactions.

Crypto coinz are really great for funding terrorist groups (see RAND's report), and for transactions that terrorists and mafias want to do.

There are some legitimate uses as well. Good for sending money to friends & relatives overseas for sure, but I suspect those volumes pale in comparison to the criminal activities.


----------



## cainvest

Best description of digital currency yet?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Yeah, I think the cryptocurrencies deserve blame here. They are basically useless for many forms of common payment... totally pointless for buying any common goods and services.


Interesting, I find cryptocurrencies ideal for online payment for digital product.
I think on-chain stores will take it to a whole new level.

Imagine getting a full description and contract for what you are buying, before you buy it. Then a public shared copy of the contract when you pay for it.
None of this "that's not what we agreed to", it will all be there disclosed and public.

Also blockchain transactions fully disclose all fees paid for the transaction, not like Visa/MC which hide them.

it's actually kind of crazy, when you buy online with a credit card, you're syaing "here is my account access, please take the right amount", then later you hopefully check to see if they took the right amount.
With crypto, they say "pay me this", you pay them that and you're done. It is literally impossible for them to overcharge you, double charge you etc.


As far as crypto currencies deserving the blame, maybe.
I think most of the blame comes from people not securing critical infrastructure.

Sure it's illegal to steal a car in front of the store, running with the keys in the ignition, but everyone agrees that it's the operators fault.
When you put a screen door on your submarine, don't blame me that it's leaky.


----------



## m3s

off.by.10 said:


> Not so with crypto. It enables a new kind of crime and fully deserves the blame for that. Ransomware would not exist on this scale without such a convenient way to extract money from the victims.


Holding a ransom has been around long before crypto and cyberattacks

So no.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Holding a ransom has been around long before crypto and cyberattacks
> 
> So no.


no you see, it's different because of technology "X"

Sheesh, kids these days, they don't realize that humanity has been dealing with pretty much the same problems for millennia.


----------



## off.by.10

m3s said:


> Holding a ransom has been around long before crypto and cyberattacks
> 
> So no.


Which is not at all a counterargument to what I wrote. It's a common theme with the crypto fans to ignore the hard questions they don't like and answer with random statements.


----------



## MrMatt

off.by.10 said:


> Which is not at all a counterargument to what I wrote. It's a common theme with the crypto fans to ignore the hard questions they don't like and answer with random statements.


Crypto currencies are a powerful tool, they can be used for good or for evil.

Now every time there is a technical innovation there are a bunch of people who want it, and a bunch of people who want to stop it.

They both have valid concerns, however I think the "bad people use this" is a common one, just "think of the children".

Remember, a lot of internet technology was driven by porn. Imagine if the anti-porn crusaders managed to stop the internet. Would we want to be years behind in internet based technology just because some people don't like porn?








A Brief History of Porn on the Internet


Pornographers developed many early innovations in internet marketing, like pop-up ads and subscriptions. And women were among the most successful entrepreneurs in the business.




www.wired.com












Does pornography still drive the internet?


Sex has always helped develop and accelerate technology.



www.bbc.com





I think the benefits of crypto outweigh the negatives. Also we can either be leaders in new technology, or ban it and be behind.


----------



## off.by.10

MrMatt said:


> They both have valid concerns, however I think the "bad people use this" is a common one, just "think of the children".


I understand your point: someday, someone might rig a tesla on autopilot to run into a crowd. It won't make self-driving cars universally bad.

But just because something has multiple uses does not mean it gets a free pass on causing damage either. And crypto is causing a lot of damage.


----------



## m3s

off.by.10 said:


> And crypto is causing a lot of damage.


Very little in reality. Makes for good headlines though

The vast majority of crime is still conducted in fiat but the media would have you believe otherwise

Most don't check any facts


----------



## MrMatt

off.by.10 said:


> I understand your point: someday, someone might rig a tesla on autopilot to run into a crowd. It won't make self-driving cars universally bad.
> 
> But just because something has multiple uses does not mean it gets a free pass on causing damage either. And crypto is causing a lot of damage.


I don't think crypto is causing a lot of damage. I think a lot of bad decisions are being made, but damage? I'd say it's actually rather minimal.

Like really, what damage is being caused by crypto? Almost none as far as I can tell.


----------



## m3s

The vast majority of crypto crime are scams self inflicted by a lack of due diligence. No different than the scams from the wolf of wall street era etc


----------



## Jimmy

It is kind of an interesting discussion. Crypto is used by some criminals w ransomware but largely I think USD and other paper currencies are the preferred exchange medium still for large scale organized crime.No trail of any kind where the basis of bitcoin is the supporting blockchain. Its strentgh and defining characteristic is its verifiable trail

Crypto pales in comparison to the money laundering ,counterfeiting and other crime going on w regular currency. I think cartel drug traffickers choice of currency is still cash. I don't think they have accounts on Coinbase yet.


----------



## m3s

Coinbase is the #1 app in the USA app store as of today

So either the vast majority of people are criminals according to boomer media or the criminals realize that coinbase requires government ID and submits wallet addresses to the IRS which can easily be tracked. A lot of crypto is banned in the US exchanges that is still available on exchanges in Canada.

I would avoid anything the US has banned as Canada tends to copy US laws 5-10 years later when they get around to doing something


----------



## KaeJS

In my unprofessional opinion, I would assume most criminals prefer to deal in cash.

Coinbase is the #1 app because crypto is hot right now and every 20-30 year old is wetting their pants trying to get in, especially after they IPO'd and Dogecoin news is everywhere, including on SNL.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Crypto is indeed a scam and possibly be the most expensive ponzi scheme that will go down in history.

I just feel bad for all those who are heavily invested cause it will get ugly. Once this pandemic is over, the fall of crypto may just very well be the next world disaster.


----------



## m3s

@Mortgage u/w Let me guess we should all see a mortgage broker to borrow millions for an old house that needs renos so we can sell it to the next sucker who will take out a bigger mortgage? Sounds like an expensive ponzi scheme eh?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

m3s said:


> @Mortgage u/w Let me guess we should all see a mortgage broker to borrow millions for an old house that needs renos so we can sell it to the next sucker who will take out a bigger mortgage? Sounds like a ponzi scheme?


No, you should take all that equity so you could invest it in Crypto. Then once you loose everything, you could blame the previous generation for your mistakes.


----------



## m3s

I have a pension and more assets than I need to retire very young. So I'm not sure what those mistakes are

Millennials will inherit an economic and environmental disaster thanks to the boomers unwillingness to acknowledge issues

Luckily the millennials are building real solutions from the ground up despite boomer resistance to any change


----------



## Mortgage u/w

m3s said:


> I have a pension and more assets than I need to retire very young. So I'm not sure what those mistakes are
> 
> Millennials are inheriting an economic and environmental disaster thanks to the boomers unwillingness to acknowledge issues
> 
> Luckily the millennials are building real solutions from the ground up despite boomer resistance to any change


care to provide concrete examples of these disasters left behind and solutions that the millennials have built?


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I have a pension and more assets than I need to retire very young. So I'm not sure what those mistakes are
> 
> Millennials will inherit an economic and environmental disaster thanks to the boomers unwillingness to acknowledge issues
> 
> Luckily the millennials are building real solutions from the ground up despite boomer resistance to any change


Boomers didn't mean to leave behind a disaster.
Just like their parents didn't mean to eitehr.

Just like the stupid things millenials are doing now, they're not doing it because they know they're bad ideas, I think they honestly think it's a good idea.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

MrMatt said:


> ....Just like the stupid things millenials are doing now, they're not doing it because they know they're bad ideas, I think they honestly think it's a good idea.


Like buying Crypto.....


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> Like buying Crypto.....


I was thinking legalizing pot, then paying people to not go to work, then wondering why the economy is in shambles.

But yeah, investing in new technology, that's also a bad idea.


----------



## cainvest

Amazing how much influence Musk has on the crypto market.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> Amazing how much influence Musk has on the crypto market.


I think he's a borderline con artist. Probably pumping & dumping things for his own personal profit.

I can't believe anyone follows this guy or thinks he's anything other than a charlatan.


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> care to provide concrete examples of these disasters left behind and solutions that the millennials have built?


Institutional systematic racism is a big one.
Defund the police. Massive spikes in crime, particularly against vulnerable populations.

And millennials haven't even been at it very long.

Honestly this conversation belongs in politics.


----------



## MrBlackhill

So. I wanna hear comments about Musk's tweet. Obviously, as expected, he has a huge influence on cryptocurrencies and that's something I don't like about cryptocurrencies. A few months ago, Musk invested in Bitcoin and then said he would accept Bitcoin to buy Tesla. And now he says he won't accept it anymore due to environmental concerns. Weird. And I guess he knows what he's talking about because he's all into electric energy production and consumption. Now, what's next?

Maybe that's some strategy. Buy Bitcoin to build confidence and keep the hype for cryptocurrencies. Then share environmental concerns to force the acceleration of developments addressing those issues.


----------



## m3s

I imagine a lot of Tesla customers/investors complained about Bitcoin mining environmental impact being in conflict with Tesla's environmental image. Musk just tweeted yesterday asking if Tesla should accept Dogecoin (which also uses mining) so it seems like this tweet was forced (by Tesla exec or the government?)

Not long ago Jack Dorsey (Square/Twitter) and Cathie Wood put out a report that showed how Bitcoin incentivizes renewable energy and Musk agreed. It can also be argued that mining gold is far worse for the environment and the traditional financial system uses far more energy itself.

However I never liked crypto mining and never bought or supported Bitcoin or the other cryptos that use mining. There are far more efficient consensus algorithms now. Unfortunately Musk supporting Bitcoin and then reversing is going to do far more damage when he could have supported a more advanced project from the start


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I think he's a borderline con artist. Probably pumping & dumping things for his own personal profit.
> 
> I can't believe anyone follows this guy or thinks he's anything other than a charlatan.


He's a crazy narcisist, and charlatan, no doubt.

But he's also accomplished great things.

people have trouble reconciling those 2 aspects of his personality.


----------



## m3s

This is a good time to separate the wheat from the chaff

The entire crypto market is down except for Cardano, Polkadot, Kusama (Polkadot), Nano up 60% (hmm wtf is this?)

So the very few real projects are up and Nano is now on my radar


----------



## nathan79

Nano has been very low key during this bull market. It's still well below its January 2018 high. I've been holding a small amount since 2017, but unsure whether to dump it or buy more. The tech is promising, but spam attacks on the network have been an issue.


----------



## Argonaut

It's nice to see that Bitcoin is getting more environmental skepticism. Politicians will follow suit only when they sense opportunity and votes.
By the way, anyone who tries to defend the energy consumption by saying "ya but financial system" or "ya but mining".. that's a strawman argument that isn't even correct.
Hard to tell for certain, but estimates are that 1 Bitcoin transaction uses the same energy as hundreds of thousands of VISA transactions. And that Bitcoin mining uses 7x the energy of gold mining right now.


----------



## jargey3000

Argonaut said:


> It's nice to see that Bitcoin is getting more environmental skepticism. Politicians will follow suit only when they sense opportunity and votes.
> By the way, anyone who tries to defend the energy consumption by saying "ya but financial system" or "ya but mining".. that's a strawman argument that isn't even correct.
> Hard to tell for certain, but estimates are that 1 Bitcoin transaction uses the same energy as hundreds of thousands of VISA transactions. And that Bitcoin mining uses 7x the energy of gold mining right now.


I wish i understood any of this.....


----------



## m3s

Hard to compare when either side can cherry pick data to get the results they want. The financial system includes banks and buildings all over the world so I really doubt it competes.

It's all pointless to argue though when we already have more advanced blockchain networks that use a tiny fraction of the energy used for crypto mining. There is no way the financial system, Visa, or gold mining can compete at all

So if we want to argue crypto is bad for the environment.. maybe Tesla and others should refuse to accept dirty fiat that is far worse for the environment


----------



## cainvest

Argonaut said:


> Hard to tell for certain, but estimates are that 1 Bitcoin transaction uses the same energy as hundreds of thousands of VISA transactions.


Also good to note that Visa (or other credit cards) are actually useful to the vast majority of the population where as crypto is burning all that energy for a tiny niche population, mostly built on speculation investing.


----------



## m3s

In that case we need to take a hard look at a lot of unnecessary things that use a lot of energy. Very hypocritical agenda here.

Credit cards can't compete with newer blockchains from an environmental standpoint. In that case Tesla should ban credit cards


----------



## m3s

Listening to the Hut 8 CEO on youtube (Canadian BTC miner)

They are using grid power that would otherwise be wasted and then reduce usage during peak demand. They also have mobile mining that can use power from oil rigs that would otherwise be wasted and isn't even connected to the grid. The other Canadian miner Bitfarms use renewable hydro power in Quebec and they setup next to the source so it is more efficient

Traditional finance doesn't optimize their power usage at all.. there is a lot of misunderstanding here


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> In that case we need to take a hard look at a lot of unnecessary things that use a lot of energy. Very hypocritical agenda here.


You could certainly start a new thread on that as this thread is about crypto.



m3s said:


> Credit cards can't compete with newer blockchains from an environmental standpoint. In that case Tesla should ban credit cards


It would be an interesting metric to see .... killowats used / number of people using each technology. If a newer crypto is better environmentally then with the current "green push" it should win right? First step for any crypto is mass consumer adoption .... still waiting on that one.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> First step for any crypto is mass consumer adoption .... still waiting on that one.


Scalability is the issue. Ethereum fees are hundreds now until L2 and ETH2 is developed

Cardano is built to scale for mass adoption but it doesn't even launch until this summer


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> Scalability is the issue. Ethereum fees are hundreds now until L2 and ETH2 is developed
> 
> Cardano is built to scale for mass adoption but it doesn't even launch until this summer


Great, so drop all the previous cryptos and wait for a good one to come out!


----------



## Mortgage u/w

I apologize for my ignorance, but;

Who is holding all the money that is being injected into cryptocurrency? Estimates seem to be 6-10billion net proceeds have been invested. Where's all that money sitting?


----------



## m3s

It's not sitting anywhere unless you mean the odd coins backed by fiat

Same as when people "inject money" into real estate it is one person handing money to another who is cashing out

Crypto currency really shows how little people understand markets


----------



## Mortgage u/w

The way I understand markets is someone has to sell stock for someone else to buy it, hence, market exchange. A company has to sell their initial share to get started and holds the money.
So who issued the initial crypto, holding the fiat currency?


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Scalability is the issue. Ethereum fees are hundreds now until L2 and ETH2 is developed
> 
> Cardano is built to scale for mass adoption but it doesn't even launch until this summer


Litecoin has low fees, they're aware of all these problems, and they're working on them.

Remember it took over 100 years for the electric car to become mainstream.


----------



## m3s

Mortgage u/w said:


> So who issued the initial crypto, holding the fiat currency?


Yea this is the important question and it's different for every token/coin. The latest trend is to have a "fair launch" but they try to do that in different ways

ICO that launched where company benefits are being investigated for security fraud by the US now such as XRP. That will set a precedence for many others. Some launch where anyone just has to go to a faucet to receive them for free. I actually get "airdropped" a lot of new tokens just by having a wallet that participated in early projects or involved in test nets etc.

Usually there is a treasury fund that a foundation uses to sustain development. Some managed this much better than others. Really the vast majority seem to have poor plans to sustain themselves especially the old coins. Cardano seems to have the best long term plan to manage treasury funds. It seems more like an afterthought for ethereum

Recently the founder of ethereum was airdropped various meme coins as a promotional scam. He sold billions worth of dog coins and donated it all to India yesterday.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> Also good to note that Visa (or other credit cards) are actually useful to the vast majority of the population where as crypto is burning all that energy for a tiny niche population, mostly built on speculation investing.


Visa/MC are far better electronic payment systems than any of these coins. I can't believe this is even a thing we have to debate.

Is Tesla going to allow payments by Visa? Imagine that. Using an electronic payment infrastructure that already exists and which works, along with safety and fraud protections.

Or I guess that instead, we could use a "currency" which fluctuates 10% to 15% in a day just based on tweets.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Litecoin has low fees, they're aware of all these problems, and they're working on them.
> 
> Remember it took over 100 years for the electric car to become mainstream.


Wouldn't LTC have the same electricity complaints if it were to become as popular as BTC?

I listened to a podcast with the founder recently but I don't fully understand LTC. Just seems like a slightly faster, slightly less secure BTC


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Is Tesla going to allow payments by Visa? Imagine that. Using an electronic payment infrastructure that already exists and which works, along with safety and fraud protections.


Never bought a new car but I wouldn't pay with a credit card.. merchant fees on a Tesla would be thousands....... and takes days to settle

But crypto doesn't make sense either when it triggers taxable gains


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Wouldn't LTC have the same electricity complaints if it were to become as popular as BTC?
> 
> I listened to a podcast with the founder recently but I don't fully understand LTC. Just seems like a slightly faster, slightly less secure BTC


LTC is basically bitcoin, with a different algorithm and also a focus on faster lower cost transactions.

The electricity complaint is a specific implementation problem.
Basically they'll use as much electricity as the transaction is worth.

If they mine 900 BTC/day, they should spend 900 BTC (or $44 million)/day in electricity. (or slightly less for profit)
Right now Ethereum mining pays about 10x my electricity costs, it's shocking more people aren't picking up the "free money"

If you want them to spend less in electricity, pay them less. If they paid only 1 BTC/day, they'd only use $50k in electricity.

What really needs to happen is algorithm upgrades to stop 51% attacks.

What they really need to do is make the chain secure even if you have mostly hostile actors, then you only have to pay enough to run a few servers, and the environmental problems go away.
Done properly and you could likely end up with an environmental footprint FAR lower than the current financial system.


----------



## m3s

This about sums it all up..



> The crypto industry is pure chaos right now.
> 
> 
> Elon can't make up his mind
> Saylor is gobbling up bitcoin
> Coinbase listing Doge
> Every shitcoin pumping
> Mainstream media confused
> Central banks printing non-stop
> Institutions pouring cash in
> 
> Complete madness.


And now Elon tweets he's working with the Dogecoin devs (which I believe is actually Litecoin now?) Doesn't Elon have better things to worry about


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Done properly and you could likely end up with an environmental footprint FAR lower than the current financial system.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Never bought a new car but I wouldn't pay with a credit card.. merchant fees on a Tesla would be thousands....... and takes days to settle
> 
> But crypto doesn't make sense either when it triggers taxable gains


Crypto doesn't trigger capital gains.
Investments that increase in value trigger capital gains.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


>


Sorry, my conclusion should have been.
"Done properly and you could replace the entire current financial with blockchain, and end up with significantly lower footprint that it employs."

Today if we replaced the banking system with Bitcoin, it would have to scale massively with a corresponding increase in electricity to maintain the system.

Today if you said no reward for blockchain, you'd be losing money preserving the integrity of the blockchain, we must keep those incentives.
We have to protect against a 51% attack, but lets say we were secure unless we had a 95% attack, we could dramatically lower the number of machines required. This is one of the things they are hoping to do with staking.

Anyway I think the future of blockchain technologies is interesting, but they're not there yet.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> This is one of the things they are hoping to do with staking.
> 
> Anyway I think the future of blockchain technologies is interesting, but they're not there yet.


With the right incentives this happens naturally. Decrease staking yield as the number of validators increase. Anyways staking already has a tiny footprint compared to mining

Considering Cardano and Ethereum are still in development yes it will be many years away. This whole crypto boom is speculation


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> With the right incentives this happens naturally. Decrease staking yield as the number of validators increase. Anyways staking already has a tiny footprint compared to mining
> 
> Considering Cardano and Ethereum are still in development yes it will be many years away. This whole crypto boom is speculation


See Post 2 in this thread from 5 months ago.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Just like fiat currency, it has value because others think it has value.
> 
> That's why I think you need to separate out blockchain technology from the crypto currencies.


Ethereum separates the fees to use the technology from the currency itself. The fees are not tied to the value of ETH but the demand for the network

Visa/Mastercard has transaction fees too just that people are mostly ignorant of them. James4beach claims people should just buy Tesla with Visa. At 3-4% merchant fees that would cost thousands. I went on Tesla website and they don't even accept credit card for final payment

Final payment is accepted via:

Electronic check (direct debit) in your Tesla Account
Wire transfer
Certified check at time of pick-up, with your Reservation Number (RN) and name in the memo line

Most banks and credit cards have limits below the price of a Tesla. So that leaves you with ancient and expensive wire transfer or ancient check. Last time I had to get a certified check I found out my local TD branch is now a Tesla supercharger station and I had to drive 30 mins out and back

American financial system is a bigger joke than Dogecoin


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Ethereum separates the fees to use the technology from the currency itself. The fees are not tied to the value of ETH but the demand for the network


Pretty much all blockchains do this.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

m3s said:


> Yea this is the important question and it's different for every token/coin. The latest trend is to have a "fair launch" but they try to do that in different ways
> 
> ICO that launched where company benefits are being investigated for security fraud by the US now such as XRP. That will set a precedence for many others. Some launch where anyone just has to go to a faucet to receive them for free. I actually get "airdropped" a lot of new tokens just by having a wallet that participated in early projects or involved in test nets etc.
> 
> Usually there is a treasury fund that a foundation uses to sustain development. Some managed this much better than others. Really the vast majority seem to have poor plans to sustain themselves especially the old coins. Cardano seems to have the best long term plan to manage treasury funds. It seems more like an afterthought for ethereum
> 
> Recently the founder of ethereum was airdropped various meme coins as a promotional scam. He sold billions worth of dog coins and donated it all to India yesterday.


And who's behind Bitcoin??


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> And who's behind Bitcoin??


Why does that matter?

Really, is the technology useful or not useful.
If it is useful, use it.
if it is not useful, don't use it.

Also "who" is an interesting question.
Whoever people agree is behind it, is behind it.

Lets say you think bitcoin should be one way, and someone else thinks bitcoin should run a different way.
Everyone else gets to decide which version of bitcoin they want to use.

If people support both, they'll both continue, though most of the time, the people forking rename to make it clear, but there is no need to.

This is like "who is behind programming languages".

A great example of how this works is with the BSD's and less so with Linux.
BSD had many forks and many long running projects because people wanted different things.

Linux is even more of a mess, but also not.
Linus actually developed a system (GIT) so every single person could collaborate together, yet be their own independant master.
Though most people use the Linus (well Greg) maintained version.

With the network effect, it seems likely that there will be a few "main" blockchains, and most of the other ones will be special purpose and not generally accepted.


----------



## m3s

Bitcoin has forked over 100 times. About 75 of the forks are considered active but I only see a few in the top 100

Crazy thing is every time it forks you get more Bitcoins


----------



## Mortgage u/w

MrMatt said:


> Why does that matter?
> 
> Really, is the technology useful or not useful.
> If it is useful, use it.
> if it is not useful, don't use it.
> 
> Also "who" is an interesting question.
> Whoever people agree is behind it, is behind it.
> 
> Lets say you think bitcoin should be one way, and someone else thinks bitcoin should run a different way.
> Everyone else gets to decide which version of bitcoin they want to use.
> 
> If people support both, they'll both continue, though most of the time, the people forking rename to make it clear, but there is no need to.


So we should all be blinded and just hand over money to an anonymous source and play monopoly??

Basically, I can invent my own version by using the same algorithms, hype the hell out of it (maybe Elon can sponsor me), pocket the money and let the rest of the world play ball. Meanwhile, I will remain anonymous cause I wouldn't want anyone to blame me once people figure it out and it all falls apart.


----------



## MrBlackhill

I can't get my head around this. We're in an era where someone can have so much influence and so much money that he (Musk) can take some really bad and useless meme (Doge) and then work on an even more ironic project about "Doge the moon" and literally send Doge to the moon with DOGE-1 project (funded by Doge) as another joke about how people are willing to give value to something totally stupid and useless and how broken is our economic/financial system is.


----------



## m3s

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1256239815256797184
I have an unpopular theory that Elon Musk is Satoshi Nakamoto and he's just trolling

The original concept of Paypal is very similar to Bitcoin
Bitcoin was launched when Tesla and SpaceX were on the brink of bankruptcy and Elon got divorced
They all use the same code
He pumps Doge because it's funny and it diverts everyone from this theory

Elon wiped out $15B in TSLA valuation with a tweet on *May 1* (he was referring to the *5:1* split nobody knew about)


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> So we should all be blinded and just hand over money to an anonymous source and play monopoly??


Absolutely not, go back, I've been consistent over years that we should NOT do this.
I routinely laugh at this, I must have said so a dozen times.
"I sent all my money to some random guy on the internet and he scammed me!!! HELP!" It's ridiculous what people do.



> Basically, I can invent my own version by using the same algorithms, hype the hell out of it (maybe Elon can sponsor me), pocket the money and let the rest of the world play ball.


Absolutely, yes you can, and if it's good, yes you SHOULD.

Do you realize that this is literally how the internet was built?
People had an idea, wrote it up, put it out there and people who thought it was useful used it.

FWIW I've been incredibly clear and consistent that you should not "invest" into anything, from crypto to stocks, to bonds and etfs if you don't understand how it will make you money.
I myself am not investing in crypto today, because I don't see how any of the available options are going to make money, I just don't see the valuation case, so I'm sitting out.

You seem to be confusing my believe in the value of blockchain technologies with an acceptance of their current economic value. I simultaneously think it is an incredible technology, and I think that today it is a ridiculous investment.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

m3s said:


> I have an unpopular theory that Elon Musk is Satoshi Nakamoto and he's just trolling


I have the same theory.....the guy is sitting on a ton of cash yet no one is questioning how he can afford SpaceX with his Starlink project and all his spendings? I doubt Tesla is making that much money. This guy is a pure genius.

He looks like a Satoshi, no?


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> I have the same theory.....the guy is sitting on a ton of cash yet no one is questioning how he can afford SpaceX with his Starlink project and all his spendings? I doubt Tesla is making that much money. This guy is a pure genius.
> 
> He looks like a Satoshi, no?


Because people keep handing him money.
How much stock does he issue, how many Tesla downpayments did he hold onto.


----------



## james4beach

I think Elon is a crooked business man, and essentially a con man.

Pumping securities in his spare time shows how unscrupulous he is. And I'm sure he's also trading his own account, so he's likely running a pump & dump scam (repeatedly). And laughing while he does it.

His recent price manipulation activity also shows just how useless crypto koinz are as a currency/investment. All it takes is one popular/celebrity to tweet about them, to make the price fly around like crazy.


----------



## KaeJS

My friend made a memecoin on Tuesday.

He's up $80k.

I honestly hate everything crypto.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I think Elon is a crooked business man, and essentially a con man.
> 
> Pumping securities in his spare time shows how unscrupulous he is. And I'm sure he's also trading his own account, so he's likely running a pump & dump scam (repeatedly). And laughing while he does it.
> 
> His recent price manipulation activity also shows just how useless crypto koinz are as a currency/investment. All it takes is one popular/celebrity to tweet about them, to make the price fly around like crazy.


Yup


----------



## sags

My theory is that Satoshi Nakamoto is Satoshi Tajiri, who created Pokemon.






Satoshi Tajiri - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





He credits Shigeru Myamoto as his mentor.......









Shigeru Miyamoto - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Interesting that the original bitcoin exchange was Mt. Gox.......an exchange in Japan that originated from digital game tokens.


----------



## james4beach

China has banned financial institutions from providing some crypto koin services.

That's not a total ban on koinz but it will probably limit the public's access to them. It might be interesting to see what other restrictions China brings forward in the coming months.


----------



## doctrine

Is crypto unravelling now? The Colonial pipeline highlighted the dangers. Now, or later, take your pick.


----------



## MrMatt

doctrine said:


> Is crypto unravelling now? The Colonial pipeline highlighted the dangers. Now, or later, take your pick.


Colonial pipeline didn't highlight any dangers wrt to crypto.

It did make it clear that improper security for critical infrastructure is a danger.

If anything the crypto is a distraction from the real problem


----------



## sags

Bitcoin is crashing.

It was already in decline from $63,000 down to $50,000 because of Elon Musk's statements and this news has dropped it to $39,000 per bitcoin.

At some price threshold, I think panic selling could start dropping the price like a rock. I am watching the live markets to see what happens.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Ouch.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Ouch.


Coinbase is having outtages as people freak out.

Now is the time to hop into the market if you wanted to.... 
To be fair, this whole mess could go to zero, or in the case of ethereum, near zero.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Coinbase is having outtages as people freak out.
> 
> Now is the time to hop into the market if you wanted to....
> To be fair, this whole mess could go to zero, or in the case of ethereum, near zero.


I'll watch how this will unfold. It may shoot back up before dropping even more, but witnessing the beginning of the turbulence, I'll be willing to buy a cryptocurrency (ETH) once it drops -80% from its ATH.

I dipped my toe in a blockchain ETF as I prefer productive assets and blockchain is more than all the hype about cryptocurrencies, yet I'm down -20% on that ETF due to bad timing. (Actually, I switched from Canadian Tech to Global Blockchain and one is down -10% while the other is down -20%, so my delta loss from that switch of exposure is only -10%)


----------



## KaeJS

Seeing this **** makes me smile.


----------



## m3s

And people wonder what inflation is and why they can't get ahead

My ADA is only up 40% this month and only like 15x now instead of +25x. My ETH is only up 20% this month and only like 30x now instead of like 60x. My MATIC is only up 500% this month now instead of 10x this month

Pretty crazy drop though. The petro dollar is fighting back with coordinated FUD


----------



## sags

Maybe all the bubbles are bursting at once.

People look into their wallets and gosh, golly, gee...........no stimulus check.


----------



## sags

I wish I had loaded up on Dogecoin when m3s first mentioned them.

But then, would I have kept holding on as they rose and rose in price ?..........Nah.......no diamond hands here.

And......would I look foolish in a Ferrari ?......yea, but maybe not so bad in a new Corvette.


----------



## Argonaut

I'm also enjoying the crypto crash. Fully aware that various coins could rebound and multiply x-fold again. But it's nice to enjoy things in life, so I will do so when I can.


----------



## nathan79

m3s said:


> And people wonder what inflation is and why they can't get ahead
> 
> My ADA is only up 40% this month and only like 15x now instead of +25x. My ETH is only up 20% this month and only like 30x now instead of like 60x. My MATIC is only up 500% this month now instead of 10x this month
> 
> Pretty crazy drop though. The petro dollar is fighting back with coordinated FUD


The FUDers come out every time there's a significant correction. Crypto is always going to zero right before it sets another record high. Apparently, "zero" is any random number between actual zero and infinity. They keep being wrong, but that doesn't stop them. They just love seeing huge drops.

I tend to ignore short term movements, unless I'm looking to buy or sell. I've already been on record saying that I expect Bitcoin be much higher in 10 years than it is now. I've been right since 2011, but maybe I'll be wrong next time. Who knows!


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> My ADA is only up 40% this month and only like 15x now instead of +25x. My ETH is only up 20% this month and only like 30x now instead of like 60x. My MATIC is only up 500% this month now instead of 10x this month


Yeah, that's true. I have the saying that I don't care about volatility, as long as there's more upside than downside. Who cares going down -50% in a month after rising +900% in a year? It sure is a big loss, but it still is a +400% gain in a year. Sure, if that made you a multi-millionaire ready to retire and then you lose it, you'll hate yourself, but otherwise...

One thing though, when the macro volatility is very high, you must make sure you buy at the right moment and won't end up holding the bag for years like those who bought the peak in 2017-2018.

And since I cannot value a crypto like ETH for instance, then all I can rely on is a trend analysis. That means, when the trend makes a big upside move, breaking the current trend, then you should be cautious and wait for consolidation.

When the market crashed in 2020, it was definitely a good time to buy ETH as it was near its multi-year low.
Then when it started to go up around June and consolidate, it was hard to tell at that time if it was a great opportunity to buy as it was near the recent highs. But since ETH had already reached that level in 2019 and in early 2020, buying in June 2020 was a good bet.
Then ETH broke the trend during July, so it was dangerous to buy.
As ETH consolidated during September at a multi-year high, it became bullish. September and October were good occasions to buy as the price was also back on the trend.
Then it broke the trend again in early January 2021, which was dangerous again, so I wouldn't have bought at that moment.
For those wiling to take the risk on the new trend from January 2021 to April 2021, it was possible to buy, but I feel like it was extremely dangerous as it was now on a higher step than the trend from January 2020 to December 2020.
And then at the end of April 2021 and beginning of May 2021, it was definitely a no-go due to another trend-breaking move which made it even more risky.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> When the market crashed in 2020, it was definitely a good time to buy ETH as it was near its multi-year low.


ETH was my biggest buy at that time.



MrBlackhill said:


> Then when it started to go up around June and consolidate, it was hard to tell at that time if it was a great opportunity to buy as it was near the recent highs. But since ETH had already reached that level in 2019 and in early 2020, buying in June 2020 was a good bet.
> Then ETH broke the trend during July, so it was dangerous to buy.


This was the lead up to the ETH 2.0 test net



MrBlackhill said:


> As ETH consolidated during September at a multi-year high, it became bullish. September and October were good occasions to buy as the price was also back on the trend.
> Then it broke the trend again in early January 2021, which was dangerous again, so I wouldn't have bought at that moment.


This was the lead up to ETH 2.0 mainnet. This was the last time I was buying ETH.



MrBlackhill said:


> For those wiling to take the risk on the new trend from January 2021 to April 2021, it was possible to buy, but I feel like it was extremely dangerous as it was now on a higher step than the trend from January 2020 to December 2020.
> And then at the end of April 2021 and beginning of May 2021, it was definitely a no-go due to another trend-breaking move which made it even more risky.


Jan 1 was when US institutions got clarity on regulations to buy/hold/trade crypto

Upcoming EIP and testnets could make it run up again like last years towards the merge in the fall. It's a race between ETH and ADA this year imo.

Mark Cuban and Elon Musk are ready to adopt crypto but nothing is fully launched or functional enough.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

its only a matter of time that Crypto disappears and becomes a "fad".


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> its only a matter of time that Crypto disappears and becomes a "fad".


AHAHAHAHAHA
That's funny.

Since you used crypto to make that post it's even more hilarious.
HTTPS is conceptually similar to the blockchain used in cryptocurrencies.

The massive explosion of various wannabe blockchain technologies is likely a fad, but the basic concept of a crypto, and blockchain technology is here and not going anywhere.


----------



## m3s

DeFi has the potential to disrupt many financial intermediaries. Mortgage u/w is ripe to be accomplished more efficiently by a distributed application algorithm.

I would want to hedge against that before it's too late.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> Since you used crypto to make that post it's even more hilarious.
> HTTPS is conceptually similar to the blockchain used in cryptocurrencies.


Sorry but that's not even a close comparison other than they are both used in a digital domain.


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> DeFi has the potential to disrupt many financial intermediaries. Mortgage u/w is ripe to be accomplished more efficiently by a distributed application algorithm.
> 
> I would want to hedge against that before it's too late.


Hard to hedge when there are so many crypto currencies. Since there are no clear winner you'd have to buy them all right?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

MrMatt said:


> AHAHAHAHAHA
> That's funny.
> 
> Since you used crypto to make that post it's even more hilarious.
> HTTPS is conceptually similar to the blockchain used in cryptocurrencies.
> 
> The massive explosion of various wannabe blockchain technologies is likely a fad, but the basic concept of a crypto, and blockchain technology is here and not going anywhere.


Sorry for not being 'technical' in my phrase.....

I am not dismissing the technology. I am simply dismissing the fact crypto-currency will actually flourish into something that will replace fiat currency. It could - but not without government intervention and regulation. And if that happens, 1 BTC will not be worth more than 1 dollar!


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> Sorry for not being 'technical' in my phrase.....
> 
> I am not dismissing the technology. I am simply dismissing the fact crypto-currency will actually flourish into something that will replace fiat currency. It could - but not without government intervention and regulation. And if that happens, 1 BTC will not be worth more than 1 dollar!


Sorry I misunderstood. I'm very interested in the technology, and totally unimpressed with the lack of valuation logic. It's mostly tulipmania or the bigger fool, which are IMO both distasteful.

I think that crypto and blockchain are interesting technologies with use.
I think that blockchain/crypto/untrusted computing technologies will flourish into something widely used and useful.
I think that an effective payment "currency" will be a key part of this technology.

I don't think government intervention or regulation is required or even useful in developing new technology. I actually think government involvement will make it worse.

Also why do you think 1 BTC will not be worth more than 1 dollar? That seems rather arbitrary.

Lets play a valuation game.
A particular task that you want will take 5 mins of time on a $1/minute AWS server, so it costs $5 USD.
lets say that same task can be accomplished on the Cardano network for 1 ADA, wouldn't it fit that 1 ADA would them be worth $5 USD?

Right now, Ethereum is doing asset swaps, currently using escrow services and exchanges may charge 0.1 -> 10% commissions (more or less)
Wouldn't that suggest that if you use the Ethereum network (today) to transfer an asset worth $1, that service is worth $0.001 -> $0.10 ?
if that's the case we can establish a value.

In short I think there is a lot of crap in every new market, from crypto markets, to stock markets, to Walmart to Amazon, to ebay & wish.com. That doesn't mean there is nothing of value there.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> Sorry but that's not even a close comparison other than they are both used in a digital domain.


Not even close, except that SSL & blockchains both use ECC algorithms. 

I was just pointing out that when people say "crypto dumb" they're ignoring the fact that the same math behind blockchain is essential to our modern internet.
The NSA didn't develop SHA to make bitcoin.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

MrMatt said:


> Sorry I misunderstood.
> 
> I think that crypto and blockchain are interesting technologies with use.
> I think that blockchain/crypto/untrusted computing technologies will flourish into something widely used and useful.
> I think that an effective payment "currency" will be a key part of this technology.
> 
> I don't think government intervention or regulation is required or even useful in developing new technology. I actually think government involvement will make it worse.
> 
> Also why do you think 1 BTC will not be worth more than 1 dollar? That seems rather arbitrary.
> 
> Lets play a valuation game.
> A particular task that you want will take 5 mins of time on a $1/minute AWS server, so it costs $5 USD.
> lets say that same task can be accomplished on the Cardano network for 1 ADA, wouldn't it fit that 1 ADA would them be worth $5 USD?
> 
> Right now, Ethereum is doing asset swaps, currently using escrow services and exchanges may charge 0.1 -> 10% commissions (more or less)
> Wouldn't that suggest that if you use the Ethereum network (today) to transfer an asset worth $1, that service is worth $0.001 -> $0.10 ?
> if that's the case we can establish a value.
> 
> In short I think there is a lot of crap in every new market, from crypto markets, to stock markets, to Walmart to Amazon, to ebay & wish.com. That doesn't mean there is nothing of value there.


you are putting value in the technology in terms of efficiency, thus reducing costs. That is not the same as establishing a new currency. Unless I am wrong, my understanding is crypto is trying to derail government controlled currencies which I think will be close to impossible.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> Sorry but that's not even a close comparison other than they are both used in a digital domain.


Blockchain tech will be used for the incoming web 3.0

Your crypto "wallet" will let you log into apps, id, sign votes, emails and messages etc. Ideally using a hardware device. It actually solves a lot of major trust problems we have online now

I already use it and it works very well. I earn crypto just for browsing the web. Just a matter of time now



> In sum, Web 3.0 will bring us a fairer internet by enabling the individual to be a sovereign. True sovereignty implies owning and being able to control who profits from one’s time and information. Web 3.0’s decentralized blockchain protocol will enable individuals to connect to an internet where they can own and be properly compensated for their time and data, eclipsing an exploitative and unjust web, where giant, centralized repositories are the only ones that own and profit from it.


source


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> I was just pointing out that when people say "crypto dumb" they're ignoring the fact that the same math behind blockchain is essential to our modern internet.


I don't think the math is in question, unless one wants to get into possibilties of breaking the security. The math itself doesn't make blockchain useful, it requires mass implemenation and acceptance. With so many of these "coins" floating around and barely anyone using them for real monetary purposes it'll remain in the background.


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> you are putting value in the technology in terms of efficiency, thus reducing costs. That is not the same as establishing a new currency. Unless I am wrong, my understanding is crypto is trying to derail government controlled currencies which I think will be close to impossible.


You're wrong.
That is the goal of some crypto currencies, ie some in the bitcoin community.

That is not what ethereum or Cardano are trying to accomplish. The currency aspect is a byproduct.
think about it, you want 1 Eth worth of work worth $5 on the Ethereum network done, but you have to pay in Eth.
all the people trading eth for money, to get work done makes it a currency.

It is just like buying tokens at an old school arcade.

As long as people want to play the game, the tokens have value.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> I don't think the math is in question, unless one wants to get into possibilties of breaking the security. The math itself doesn't make blockchain useful, it requires mass implemenation and acceptance. With so many of these "coins" floating around and barely anyone using them for real monetary purposes it'll remain in the background.


Not disagreeing, but most useful technology is hidden in the background. I just want to point out that crypto is fundamental to the world today. Too many people are confusing pump and dump schemes using blockchain with legitimate crypto technologies.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> It is just like buying tokens at an old school arcade.
> 
> As long as people want to play the game, the tokens have value.


That's 1/3 of it

Buying PoS tokens lets you stake them to earn fees from processing the network. There isn't 1 "arcade owner" rather the same tokens for playing the game let you own and earn from the network at the same time

The 3rd part is that tokens can be removed from circulation by an algorithm to incentivize staking and holding (like savings accounts used to be..)


----------



## Mortgage u/w

MrMatt said:


> You're wrong.
> That is the goal of some crypto currencies, ie some in the bitcoin community.
> 
> That is not what ethereum or Cardano are trying to accomplish. The currency aspect is a byproduct.
> think about it, you want 1 Eth worth of work worth $5 on the Ethereum network done, but you have to pay in Eth.
> all the people trading eth for money, to get work done makes it a currency.
> 
> It is just like buying tokens at an old school arcade.
> 
> As long as people want to play the game, the tokens have value.


A token is not a currency. If Crypto markets itself as a virtual replacement for tokens, then that makes more sense. Arcades will be their primary clients. But they are being marketed as a currency replacement, bypassing the 'system' and evading taxes.


----------



## m3s

Mortgage u/w said:


> But they are being marketed as a currency replacement, bypassing the 'system' and evading taxes.


You mean the mainstream media that is controlled by the legacy system is spreading misinformation? Say it aint so


----------



## Mortgage u/w

m3s said:


> You mean the mainstream media that is controlled by the legacy system is spreading misinformation? Say it aint so


Sure, media sources are skewed all the time and report nonsense.......but you wont convince me that all the people investing in crypto are well informed and in it for the right reasons. 

According to your statement, we have to conclude that the valuation of crypto is based solely on misinformation - cause that's all people have to base themselves on.


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> A token is not a currency. If Crypto markets itself as a virtual replacement for tokens, then that makes more sense. Arcades will be their primary clients. But they are being marketed as a currency replacement, bypassing the 'system' and evading taxes.


You almost get it, to use the Ethereum arcade, you need to buy Ethereum tokens. That's the whole story.

Some people are trying to market it as a currency replacement, and maybe it is, but as I don't see a currency working without.
1. Inherent value. (gold)
2. A huge shared delusion (fiat currency)

Bypassing the system could be wildly efficient, LTC lets me bypass the system and send as much as I want for less than a penny.

I don't see what evading taxes has to do with anything.
1. If you fail to declare the income, you're committing a crime. It doesn't matter if it is cash or Bitcoin.
2. Most blockchains are publicly visible. Using a highly visible easily traceable financial system is the dumbest way to try and avoid taxes I can imagine. Honestly I can't imagine a dumber way to avoid taxes than telling the government every single transaction you ever made.

As far as marketing, Ferraris are marketed as a sexy car that will get the owner some "adult hugging" with a variety of adults. That isn't (necessarily) the intent of supercar engineers.


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> A token is not a currency.


Sure it it is.

If I can exchange eth for a service (I can) it fits the definition of a currency.










Currency Definition


Currency is a generally accepted form of payment, including coins and paper notes, which is circulated within an economy and usually issued by a government.




www.investopedia.com




*What Is Currency?*
Currency is a medium of exchange for goods and services.










Medium of Exchange Definition


A medium of exchange is an intermediary instrument, such as currency, used to facilitate the sale, purchase, or trade of goods between parties.




www.investopedia.com


----------



## Mortgage u/w

my point here is that crypto is being marketed as a currency replacement which is why there is so much controversy. Had it been marketed as a technology with relatable examples of its use, we wouldn't have a thread with 300 posts discussing this topic.


----------



## MrMatt

Mortgage u/w said:


> my point here is that crypto is being marketed as a currency replacement which is why there is so much controversy. Had it been marketed as a technology with relatable examples of its use, we wouldn't have a thread with 300 posts discussing this topic.


Well there thousands of technologies and implementations being marketted by thousands more.

That's why I keep circling back to the subgroup I think is interesting and has value. ie platform coins, those that do something.

I'm really not interested in currency replacements as they are today.
I think part of the reason there are hundreds of posts is people are focusing on the currency replacment aspect and dismissing it because of the obvious (and widely agreed here) problems. (ie valuation)


----------



## sags

Oh...oh......

_The Treasury Department on Thursday announced that it is taking steps to crack down on cryptocurrency markets and transactions, and said it will require any transfer worth $10,000 or more to be reported to the Internal Revenue Service.

“Cryptocurrency already poses a significant detection problem by* facilitating illegal activity broadly including tax evasion*,” _

Turn out the lights......the parties over ?









U.S. Treasury calls for stricter cryptocurrency compliance with IRS, says they pose tax evasion risk


The Treasury Department announced that it will require any transfer worth $10,000 or more to be reported to the IRS.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## KaeJS

Crypto has to be the biggest joke for financial markets.

If crypto isn't froth, I don't know what is.

Still, after so many years, nobody can give me an answer as to why we need crypto or what issues it solves.

Crypto is a casino. That's all. Straight gambling.


----------



## sags

Bitcoin has been getting hard with government crackdowns lately.


----------



## KaeJS

I'm no stranger to it.

I first got into Bitcoin in 2014.
Then heavily in 2016 and 2017. I spent over $15,000 on graphics cards to mine crypto. Over the past 4 years, I have been trading it, mostly successfully with a few small drawdowns and mistakes (but it's very easy to win when everything keeps going up).

At this point, I have about $1500 in crypto. I have sold all my computers and GPUs.

I have never believed in it.
I have always thought it was trash.
But you can't blame me for taking advantage of an opportunity lol.

I just wish it would die now.
Too many people are "investors" these days.


----------



## m3s

KaeJS said:


> Too many people are "investors" these days.


What does that make you?


----------



## KaeJS

m3s said:


> What does that make you?


An opportunist.

I'm not investing in it.

I told you, I have $1500 in the game now. Peanuts. And it's in an altcoin. I expect my 1500 to either be $0 or $100k


----------



## m3s

KaeJS said:


> An opportunist.


If it's not working I suggest you look for people with a strong track record. We live in the information age. You need to sort the "investors" from the investors

To me, it is your track record that makes the distinction. To be frank I put little weight on someone who's been on the wrong side of a trade for many years


----------



## KaeJS

Can say what you want about track record.

My stock record and real estate record is fantastic.

Sure, if I held Bitcoin since 2014, I'd be a multimillionaire...

But you'd have to be nuts and delusional. I am neither. Some people get lucky. Some people win the lottery, but it doesn't mean buying lottery tickets makes sense or is the right decision. Nor can you judge someone for their lottery ticket track record...

I've been in the game. I know you like ADA. I understand what people "see" in it. But at the same time, I just think crypto as a whole is a big hoax.

The technology is one thing, and it's not debatable. It is a real, useful technology.

Owning the coin? That's different. And useless.


----------



## m3s

KaeJS said:


> Can say what you want about track record.
> 
> My stock record and real estate record is fantastic.
> 
> Sure, if I held Bitcoin since 2014, I'd be a multimillionaire...


Then why spend so much negative energy posting in crypto threads and long threads about not being able to get ahead

Crypto has been extremely profitable for me and I haven't tried to twist any arms here. I just shake my head at the misinformation here. I like finance and tech and it works for me. A market is a market whether is it real estate or stocks

So why not focus more positive energy on your fantastic stock and real estate


----------



## KaeJS

Because, once again, just because you made money "investing" in crypto does not necessarily mean it is a prudent, wise, or a logical decision.

Many people have become wealthy for reasons that are not attached to intelligence.

Crypto is speculative. If anyone is investing in it, they are gambling.


----------



## doctrine

This article is indicative of all the reasons to stay away from crypto. Pump and dump. Maybe if you think you can outsmart the pumpers sure, but that's about the only reason. 









$ASS Coin billionaire: Tales from the fringe of the crypto craze - BNN Bloomberg


In the midnight hour, in his Florida kitchen, thumbing through his high school yearbook and brooding over might’ve-beens, Eric Hackney is more than another dreamer longing to get rich quick.




www.bnnbloomberg.ca


----------



## m3s

Real estate investing is speculative. Stocks are speculative. Markets are markets.

The easiest money I ever made was real estate. I picked a house I wanted and the rest was purely up to the market since it's illiquid. Everyone and their dog is a real estate investor nowadays. Property taxes and opportunity costs make it mediocre but safe and easy. The exorbitant cost of living in a major city today is what really holds young people back.

With any market you can find diamonds in the rough if you put in the effort. People make their luck.


----------



## wayward__son

discussion has gotten a little emotional. we are all just anons on the internet trying to learn from each other and I wish everyone success and happiness. I will just say if you have an emotional attachment to digital / crypto asset prices falling, I think you are going to have an absolutely exhausting next few decades. take a flat position now if you are agnostic or skeptical, but give yourself emotional space to be wrong and change your mind in the future.


----------



## james4beach

doctrine said:


> https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/***-coin-billionaire-tales-from-the-fringe-of-the-crypto-craze-1.1606305


LOL, the forum software bleeped out the name of the coin! ha ha


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> The exorbitant cost of living in a major city today is what really holds young people back.


No their insistance that they want the most highly desirable locations is what holds them back.
There are still decent detached houses for $250k. they're just not walking distance to downtown Toronto, and they might need some work.

I bought an older home that needed work, I did the work, and profited nicely.


----------



## KaeJS

MrMatt said:


> There are still decent detached houses for $250k.


Um? LOL.


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> Um? LOL.


Yeah, it's actually laughable that people are complaining about housing prices when there are still many reasonably priced ones out there.
The thing people have to realize is that there is only so much space in a desirable area, the price will get bid up, or density will increase.

It simply isn't possible for every person to be in the same place. Pricing sorts out that problem.

I always think it's funny as young students come to grips with the fact that at 20 they can't expect to fund the lifestyle of their parents at 40+


----------



## KaeJS

Show me.

Where can I get a detached home for $250 that isn't in a place like Nunavut?

Give me something at least a somewhat reasonable distance from a city. Show me an ad.

It doesn't exist.

Plus, who wants to live away from everything?

If you're going to show me some house in the middle of nowhere in Nova Scotia..
Then that's not really what I'm looking for lol.

I don't care if the price is 250k. It's 250k for a reason. Nobody wants it.


----------



## cainvest

KaeJS said:


> Show me.
> 
> Where can I get a detached home for $250 that isn't in a place like Nunavut?


For $250k, many of them in Winnipeg but the area isn't that nice. 
You'd likely need to start at $300K for a good area.


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> For $250k, many of them in Winnipeg but the area isn't that nice.
> You'd likely need to start at $300K for a good area.


sssh cainvest, don't spill the beans on the Winnipeg secret. Next thing you know all the damn real estate "investors" will come in and ruin the market there, too.


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> sssh cainvest, don't spill the beans on the Winnipeg secret. Next thing you know all the damn real estate "investors" will come in and ruin the market there, too.


Anyone that is really looking already knows. Rural MB has some nice listings too!


----------



## KaeJS

I've been to Winnipeg.

There is nothing there.


----------



## cainvest

KaeJS said:


> I've been to Winnipeg.
> 
> There is nothing there.


You mean no houses that you liked? 
BTW, you said $250k and not in Nunavut ...


----------



## KaeJS

I mean that I would never live in Winnipeg.
Regardless of the home prices lol.

From what I remember, it's a fairly small city, a highway that circles it, and super cold winters.

Not all that exciting.


----------



## cainvest

KaeJS said:


> I mean that I would never live in Winnipeg.
> Regardless of the home prices lol.
> 
> From what I remember, it's a fairly small city, a highway that circles it, and super cold winters.
> 
> Not all that exciting.


Fair enough, really depends on what you want to do, excellent for many outdoor activities. Our winters are actually becoming much nicer with climate change.


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> Show me.
> 
> Where can I get a detached home for $250 that isn't in a place like Nunavut?
> 
> Give me something at least a somewhat reasonable distance from a city. Show me an ad.
> 
> It doesn't exist.
> 
> Plus, who wants to live away from everything?
> 
> If you're going to show me some house in the middle of nowhere in Nova Scotia..
> Then that's not really what I'm looking for lol.
> 
> I don't care if the price is 250k. It's 250k for a reason. Nobody wants it.


You didn't look.
10k listings in Canada, not a single one in Nunavut.
It's a trade off, if you want to live in a hot in demand area where many want to live, there will be higher prices.
Myself my neighbourhood is now a 700-800k neighbourhood, because people realised in the last 3 years that hey, it's pretty nice here.






https://www.realtor.ca/map#ZoomLevel=4&Center=54.920828%2C-99.316406&LatitudeMax=68.28159&LongitudeMax=-50.00977&LatitudeMin=34.98500&LongitudeMin=-148.62305&Sort=6-D&PropertyTypeGroupID=1&PropertySearchTypeId=1&TransactionTypeId=2&PriceMin=225000&PriceMax=275000&Currency=CAD


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> You didn't look.
> 10k listings in Canada, not a single one in Nunavut.


I think he's looking for something exciting like this for $250k. 
2816 BELLEVUE Avenue in West Vancouver: Altamont House for sale : MLS®# R2577798


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> I think he's looking for something exciting like this for $250k.
> 2816 BELLEVUE Avenue in West Vancouver: Altamont House for sale : MLS®# R2577798


I know, could you imagine buying a house without a pool and ocean view?


----------



## KaeJS

Nobody has showed me what I asked for.

Where are the detached homes for $250k?

Anyone?


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> Nobody has showed me what I asked for.
> 
> Where are the detached homes for $250k?
> 
> Anyone?


I literally posted a link to houses in that price range in #324, but here, now that you want detached.
Now it's only 5k properties, instead of 10k, but that's still quite a few.



https://www.realtor.ca/map#ZoomLevel=4&Center=54.920828%2C-99.316406&LatitudeMax=67.04602&LongitudeMax=-50.00977&LatitudeMin=37.60553&LongitudeMin=-148.62305&Sort=6-D&PropertyTypeGroupID=1&PropertySearchTypeId=1&TransactionTypeId=2&PriceMin=225000&PriceMax=275000&BuildingTypeId=1&Currency=CAD


----------



## cainvest

KaeJS said:


> Nobody has showed me what I asked for.
> 
> Where are the detached homes for $250k?
> 
> Anyone?


Lots of homes available in that price range. 

You need to specify where you want to live, as in, areas within acceptable cities.


----------



## doctrine

KaeJS said:


> Nobody has showed me what I asked for.
> 
> Where are the detached homes for $250k?
> 
> Anyone?


I remember about 10 years ago (2011), there were typically in excess of 250 properties in Nova Scotia for less than $50k, including detached houses. Most of those that are left have gone up to $250-300k, especially in destitute towns with no hope of real future jobs and plenty of real crumbling infrastructure. There have always been long lists of properties for sale just if you paid the outstanding taxes. Of course, not everyone wanted to own a fallen-in barn on a few acres next to a swamp outside Mabou, but hey, it was only a few thousand dollars. Even the Tim Hortons were giving away land if you would just take a job in some places. But you had to stay for a little while...


----------



## KaeJS

Doesn't seem what I'm looking for.

There may be houses, but most of them don't look very nice or are old and dilapidated. Also, they are far away from cities and have less than desirable weather.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

KaeJS said:


> Doesn't seem what I'm looking for.
> 
> There may be houses, but most of them don't look very nice or are old and dilapidated. Also, they are far away from cities and have less than desirable weather.


I think you understand the point here.....don't deny the fact that affordable homes DO exist.

Remember, desirable locations weren't created overnight. They once were considered far away, old or undesirable locations.


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> Doesn't seem what I'm looking for.
> 
> There may be houses, but most of them don't look very nice or are old and dilapidated. Also, they are far away from cities and have less than desirable weather.


Well you have actually never specified what you're looking for.
But if you want a very nice, new home in a major center with excellent weather.... that's going to be expensive.

That's just reality, and it's ALWAYS been that way.

Myself I moved into a nice area and let the valuation catch up to what I paid. 
Now that we have multiple parks, splash pads, nearby retail, multiple schools within walking distance, guess what the value is WAY higher than when it was just a few houses in a field.

Even adjusting for inflation & wage growth, discounting my house back to when I bought it, I couldn't afford it.

Also my last house was old and needed work, in that time the location became a lot more desirable, and I DID THE WORK. I sold it for a nice profit.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Mortgage u/w said:


> Remember, desirable locations weren't created overnight. They once were considered far away, old or undesirable locations.


Thought I believe that desirable locations aren't "created", it's mainly because of desirable geography. Near a port, a big mountain, a big lake, a big river, a big beach, a big park, etc. And you cannot change that. Location, location, location.

I don't know any popular city located in the middle of a geographic nowhere.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Thought I believe that desirable locations aren't "created", it's mainly because of desirable geography. Near a port, near a big mountain, near a big lake, near a big beach, near a big park, etc. And you cannot change that. Location, location, location.


Traditionally, but Southern Ontario is a great example of locations becoming more desirable.
Basically "affordable near Toronto" is enough of a location draw.

Waterloo Region (Kitchener Waterloo, Cambridge) has had insane Growth over the last 2 decades, and is very desirable. It's basically a city that is geographically in the middle of nowhere.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Traditionally, but Southern Ontario is a great example of locations becoming more desirable.
> Basically "affordable near Toronto" is enough of a location draw.
> 
> Waterloo Region (Kitchener Waterloo, Cambridge) has had insane Growth over the last 2 decades, and is very desirable. It's basically a city that is geographically in the middle of nowhere.


Yeah, maybe there's a few exceptions. I'm no expert, but my understanding of the growth of that region is at least in big part due to the universities. I don't know what's the decision process to build universities at some specific locations, but it's a huge factor for the growth of a city.

I still see that big rivers are also a geographic factor for growth and Waterloo is near one. But I cannot explain why that specific location.

I also have an equivalent example in Quebec (Sherbrooke) which feels in the middle of nowhere, but it has a university, a river and it is near some small but highly touristic cities (due to mountains and lakes). And I guess a city with a university at that location was convenient instead of sending every kid to Montreal, 2h away.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Yeah, maybe there's a few exceptions. I'm no expert, but my understanding of the growth of that region is at least in big part due to the universities. I don't know what's the decision process to build universities at some specific locations, but it's a huge factor for the growth of a city.
> 
> I still see that big rivers are also a geographic factor for growth and Waterloo is near one. But I cannot explain why that specific location.
> 
> I also have an equivalent example in Quebec ( Sherbrooke) which feels in the middle of nowhere, but it has a university, a river and it is near some small but highly touristic cities (due to mountains and lakes). And I guess a city with a university at that location was convenient instead of sending every kid to Montreal, 2h away.


The Grand river isn't that big, you can't even paddle a canoe through KW without dragging it over rocks at some points.
London has a nicer river.

Waterloo has 2 universities and a college.
The thing is that the areas grow and become more desirable. You can't have it all on an entry level salary.


----------



## wayward__son

This thread has taken a truly disappointing turn. Only on a Canadian investing forum could a thread on crypto scams devolve into house horny millennial degeneracy. Thumbs down


----------



## MrMatt

wayward__son said:


> This thread has taken a truly disappointing turn. Only on a Canadian investing forum could a thread on crypto scams devolve into house horny millennial degeneracy. Thumbs down


Are you new to the internet?


----------



## wayward__son

It was a joke!


----------



## james4beach

wayward__son said:


> It was a joke!


It's true though. Everyone in Canada is obsessed with real estate ... it's a national sickness.

Of course there is one way to solve the unaffordable housing problem, the solution to everything. BUY BITCOIN !!

10 years ago there was a different solution: leveraged forex trading and HYIP scams. Same basic idea.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> It's true though. Everyone in Canada is obsessed with real estate ... it's a national sickness.
> 
> Of course there is one way to solve the unaffordable housing problem, the solution to everything. BUY BITCOIN !!
> 
> 10 years ago there was a different solution: leveraged forex trading and HYIP scams. Same basic idea.


and before that it was another get rich quick scheme.


----------



## MrMatt

Crypto is here and it's a foundational technology of the modern era.
Public ledgers and blockchains are likely going to be a fixture in the future, it really makes a lot of sense.

Most of the thousands of blockchains people are promoting today are crap that don't add much value and aren't worthwhile.

This reminds me of the dot-com boom, a world changing technology, lots of amazing stuff, and piles and piles of crap that didn't add value.

I have no doubt that the pattern was repeated many times before, and it will be repeated many times after.

The problem is now, as it was then, most people can't sort the good from the bad, so they come up with flawed generalities.

I think the simplest and safest is to watch with curiousity, and don't buy anything that doesn't make sense.
Amazon didn't make sense to me for a long long time, heck Google didn't make sense for a long time either.
I missed out on untold riches due to my delay on those two, and even with my very late start, they're two of my best performing holdings.

Heck even today I barely understand Apple, but I understand it enough to buy their stock, still can't get why people would buy their products though.


----------



## wayward__son

james4beach said:


> It's true though. Everyone in Canada is obsessed with real estate ... it's a national sickness.
> 
> Of course there is one way to solve the unaffordable housing problem, the solution to everything. BUY BITCOIN !!
> 
> 10 years ago there was a different solution: leveraged forex trading and HYIP scams. Same basic idea.


haha I like your focus.

btw looks like Dalio really has dipped a toe in the water :

Billionaire Ray Dalio says he owns bitcoin, and its 'greatest risk is its success'


----------



## james4beach

wayward__son said:


> btw looks like Dalio really has dipped a toe in the water :


Shrug. In any case, if some cryptocurrency does stick around for good, it won't be Bitcoin.

That's the problem with speculating in this stuff. One of them might stick around, but you'll have to guess which one out of the thousands of coinz.


----------



## wayward__son

How do you know it won’t be Bitcoin?


----------



## james4beach

wayward__son said:


> How do you know it won’t be Bitcoin?


It's one of the less impressive offerings. Bloated, slow, clunky, energy-hungry, too much tracking and poor anonymity.

To really have a future, one of the coinz has to at least get close to Visa and Mastercard transactions. These networks support huge transaction volumes, at very high speeds, with only a fraction of the power usage of Bitcoin.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

MrBlackhill said:


> Thought I believe that desirable locations aren't "created", it's mainly because of desirable geography. Near a port, a big mountain, a big lake, a big river, a big beach, a big park, etc. And you cannot change that. Location, location, location.
> 
> I don't know any popular city located in the middle of a geographic nowhere.



There are plenty of desirable populations that are nowhere near water or mountain. 
"if you build it they will come"


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> It's one of the less impressive offerings. Bloated, slow, clunky, energy-hungry, too much tracking and poor anonymity.
> 
> To really have a future, one of the coinz has to at least get close to Visa and Mastercard transactions. These networks support huge transaction volumes, at very high speeds, with only a fraction of the power usage of Bitcoin.


Not sure about bloat or clunky.
Energy hungry in it's current form.
Lightning network is isn't slow & clunky.

Almost all of the blockchains are fully tracable, that's why Monero isn't on many exchanges

Bitcoin will stick around for a while, because it is "the standard".
I think practically litecoin is better, but it's just a small evolution.

I'm pretty sure the whole Visa & MC network has an insane footprint, they send me a physical letter every month.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Mortgage u/w said:


> "if you build it they will come"


Not so sure. People live where the jobs are. Jobs are at places with an advantageous geography. Mountains, lakes, rivers and beaches for tourism, activities and relaxation. Ports for commerce and tourism. And so on.

Let's take a random place. Millbridge, Ontario. Now, I want to spend millions to develop the next big and desirable city. Convince me that Millbridge is the right place. That if I build, people will come.

_PS: Fun fact, I took this name randomly by looking at places that I believe have no geographic advantage and now I've just noticed that it's a ghost town, ha! Seems to prove my point._

To make this post more related to crypto, maybe it's a good place to start a crypto-mining city?


----------



## Spudd

I discovered a new CBC podcast today about the QuadrigaCX fiasco and the death of the founder. Listened to the first 2 episodes this morning and would recommend it to anyone interested in the topic. 


https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/longform/bitcoin-gerald-cotten-quadriga-cx-death


----------



## james4beach

Spudd said:


> I discovered a new CBC podcast today about the QuadrigaCX fiasco and the death of the founder. Listened to the first 2 episodes this morning and would recommend it to anyone interested in the topic.
> 
> 
> https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/longform/bitcoin-gerald-cotten-quadriga-cx-death


Wow neat, thanks!


----------



## MrMatt

Spudd said:


> I discovered a new CBC podcast today about the QuadrigaCX fiasco and the death of the founder. Listened to the first 2 episodes this morning and would recommend it to anyone interested in the topic.
> 
> 
> https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/longform/bitcoin-gerald-cotten-quadriga-cx-death


Didn't he just steal the money, run away and "die"?


----------



## james4beach

Spudd said:


> I discovered a new CBC podcast today about the QuadrigaCX fiasco and the death of the founder. Listened to the first 2 episodes this morning and would recommend it to anyone interested in the topic.


The history of Cotten is also noteworthy because it seems similar in many parts of this "cryptocurrency" industry

Cotten had a long history of frauds and scams going back to 2003. He was an online fraudster, promoting things like HYIP (which was a forex trading scam and ponzi scheme ... something I keep mentioning that crypto coinz are similar to) and associated with people involved in money laundering.

From what I've seen, these histories in fraud and shady business often pops up in people involved in crypto coinz buzinesses.

I think the whole industry is scummy.


----------



## m3s

The internet was the exact same in the 90s and 00s. Wait it's still the same

There will always be scammers so long as there will be fools to scam


----------



## sags

They got these things called debit and credit cards now.

You just tap and voila........instant payment. It is something to behold.

But hey, what if someone invented a coin that you bought from an exchange by setting up an account and telling them all your information and sending them money and then buy a coin and then you and could pay a fee to send it to someone else and they could collect the digital coin and then go to an exchange and then withdraw the cash and send it to a bank and in a couple of days or weeks.........the whole process would be done.

You would have to trust the exchange run by unknown people in faraway places, but some of them don't go bankrupt or run off with the money.

You just gotta believe.........and HODL. It is known as the "Tinkerbell" effect.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> They got these things called debit and credit cards now.


When the internet came out

All the boomers said they got this thing called the phone

And yet even the boomers use the internet now


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> When the internet came out
> 
> All the boomers said they got this thing called the phone
> 
> And yet even the boomers use the internet now


Funny because boomer tech created the internet.


----------



## m3s

Crypto is also actually boomer tech

Doesn't mean many boomers understand it


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> They got these things called debit and credit cards now.


Apple is hiring people to get into "alternative payments" now

Why would Apple want to get into "alternative payments" when we have debit and credit cards?

Maybe @james4beach and @sags can apply


----------



## sags

They want to capture a share of the fee pie.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> They want to capture a share of the fee pie.


Many many ways to do this is emerging tech

I just got airdropped another new governance token today just for having used the project

You realize the internet is full of scams so you should stop posting here, right?


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> Crypto is also actually boomer tech
> 
> Doesn't mean many boomers understand it


It would be easy everyone to understand it if anyone could deploy a practical use for it other than a speculation trading system of it's own apparent worth.


----------



## m3s

cainvest said:


> It would be easy everyone to understand it if anyone could deploy a practical use for it other than a speculation trading system of it's own apparent worth.


You mean its btw and it's called DeFi


----------



## cainvest

m3s said:


> You mean its btw and it's called DeFi


Forgot to add, mass acceptance.


----------



## MrMatt

cainvest said:


> It would be easy everyone to understand it if anyone could deploy a practical use for it other than a speculation trading system of it's own apparent worth.


Yes, and I think that's what many are missing.
The hype around the speculation has sucked up all the attention, the actual innovations and useful ideas aren't getting attention. 

The fact that the "market cap" swings by the GDP of entire nations is very "newsworthy".

The other applications, quite honestly very few can wrap their head around the concepts, or the potential impacts and their reprecussions aren't known.

What if when you went to a bar they could "check" your ID, without them getting any of your personal information (ie name, age, birthday, address etc), like they currently do with license scanners? But still have a record that they checked your ID?

I do think the financial soltuions are nice, but 
What if you could "pay" a website pennies for a subscription, instead of dollars?
What about Patreon or other sponsorships?

Digital collectibles is an interesting one, I don't think NFTs are there yet, but what about digital pokemon cards, that don't require niantic to approve each trade. (Or magic or whatever).


----------



## m3s

It's impressive how much adoption ethereum has considering the fees

A third gen blockchain with low fees is where we could see real adoption. It is still being developed

It's still '90s era internet at this point in terms of adoption and use


----------



## james4beach

cainvest said:


> Funny because boomer tech created the internet.


Not only boomer tech, but more specifically, the US Government.

It was a government research programme. The US government (DARPA) funded the creation of the Transmission Control Protocol, leading to the first network designs (ARPANET and DOD network) which gradually morphed into TCP/IP and the modern internet.

Further development of the internet and its underlying protocols occurred exclusively within universities, which also (shocker) are mainly government funded.


----------



## sags

And it was a couple of boomers, one who quit Harvard University, who went to a small company to develop software for a revolutionary new chip.

They developed software to communicate with the mathematics of a computer to produce images and make the operating system consumer friendly.

They then went on to build one of the world's largest companies, with their software implanted on hundreds of millions of computers around the world.

And yet...these boomers "don't understand" the technology of crypto. They lack the vision and creativity required that Youtuber "To Da Moon" acquired so easily.

The boomers...Bill Gates being one, who along with his friends Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, the most successful investors of all time, simply "don't get it".

The internet story has already been written. The crypto story is yet to be told.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The internet story has already been written. The crypto story is yet to be told.


Yup. Most couldn't imagine the internet story before it was written either

People like Bill Gates are visionaries. You know him now that his vision is here, and yet refuse to believe that there are new visions coming


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> People like Bill Gates are visionaries. You know him now that his vision is here, and yet refuse to believe that there are new visions coming


There are definitely visionaries out there, but there are also lots of people who get overly excited about false starts (or bad ideas) which fizzle out and become nothing.

Some people also get tricked into cons and frauds.

m3s I know that you are believe strongly in the future of this tech, but you should also consider that you might be wrong. Perhaps the way to approach this is a diversified portfolio where you're something like 90% in stocks/bonds and maybe 10% (or less) in cryptocurrency ventures.

That would at least protect you from total ruin, in case you're wrong. And if they really have fabulous returns then you still get to benefit.

Myself, my cryptocurrency exposure is roughly 0.1% of my portfolio


----------



## Jimmy

m3s said:


> Yup. Most couldn't imagine the internet story before it was written either
> 
> People like Bill Gates are visionaries. You know him now that his vision is here, and yet refuse to believe that there are new visions coming


Off topic a little but have you heard of a company called EPAM (NYSE) ? They are a big tech services /consulting company now starting in blockchain services & were recommended in a newsletter service. Sort of service play on the crytpo market. Look like a good company but newer in the field.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> There are definitely visionaries out there, but there are also lots of people who get overly excited about false starts (or bad ideas) which fizzle out and become nothing.
> 
> Some people also get tricked into cons and frauds.
> 
> m3s I know that you are believe strongly in the future of this tech, but you should also consider that you might be wrong. Perhaps the way to approach this is a diversified portfolio where you're something like 90% in stocks/bonds and maybe 10% (or less) in cryptocurrency ventures.
> 
> That would at least protect you from total ruin, in case you're wrong. And if they really have fabulous returns then you still get to benefit.
> 
> Myself, my cryptocurrency exposure is roughly 0.1% of my portfolio


Visionaries don't have the conservative mindset. They don't think about having a fallback, they just know they'll keep moving forward even after a fail. Some people call them stupid because of the level of risk they can take, as those people cannot relate to such a level of risk. There is a very thin line between someone called a genius and someone being insane.


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Visionaries don't have the conservative mindset. They don't think about having a fallback, they just know they'll keep moving forward even after a fail. Some people call them stupid because of the level of risk they can take, as those people cannot relate to such a level of risk. There is a very thin line between someone called a genius and someone being insane.


Yeah, but I'm not talking about the visionary's money. They can do whatever the hell they want with their own money.

I mean for us investors, it's prudent to limit the % you have exposed to some smooth-talking "visionary". In practical terms, that means limiting the amount you expose to crypto currencies & TSLA, and only doing it within a diversified portfolio with other assets.

In the 20 years I've been investing, I have heard of many visionaries who were going to change everything we know about the world. *Everyone* says that. It's not a unique pitch, but it only plays out like that in a very small number of cases. This is why you should approach each claim of this nature with suspicion.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Visionaries don't have the conservative mindset.


This is your bias showing.



> They don't think about having a fallback, they just know they'll keep moving forward even after a fail. Some people call them stupid because of the level of risk they can take, as those people cannot relate to such a level of risk. There is a very thin line between someone called a genius and someone being insane.


That's true for a "visionary" like Musk (or Jobs or any number of celebrities that go bankrupt).

There are a lot of visionaries who DO engage with fallbacks and backup plans.
Not everyone goes all in on a single big idea. In fact there is a lot more talk about how most successful startups have a pivot, where they change direction.

There is an incredibly famous dating website that had a bit of a pivot to something bigger. (Youtube)

Sorry, many visionaries are paying attention, they ditch stuff that doesn't work, and they reorient to things that do. Some have many irons in the fire and ditch stuff that fails.

As they say "FAIL" is just First Attempt In Learning.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Myself, my cryptocurrency exposure is roughly 0.1% of my portfolio


I think that's too much to invest in crypto "currency".

The technology is cool, and it does lots. But I don't think any of the things that blockchains do are worth 100x their current cost.
I think the companies actually doing innovative work might be, but I'm not sure who they are. 

Also at this point I think much of the innovative work is actually individuals or small teams. You can't buy stock in Buterin, or Hoskinson.
I think the next billion dollar (or multi billion dollar idea) is going to come from an individual, some Blockchain.com isn't going to do it, they're going to be filled with grunts.

Plus the people who REALLY know this stuff will fund themselves or the up and coming next expert.

Or it will be buried in the depths of some massive company, if MSFT makes the next $20B blockchain idea it won't even move the needle on their stock price.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> Yeah, but I'm not talking about the visionary's money. They can do whatever the hell they want with their own money.


I mean that visionaries who start a business for instance are taking on much more risk than most people. But I agree that there's a difference between having a vision to start a business or to be part of community that has the same vision and knowing how to manage your money.

People who have a strong belief are willing to take on more risk due to their convictions.

I mean, your choice of asset allocation is due to your strong conviction that's the best strategy for you. Same goes for someone who is willing to put more weight in equities. Or more weight in some specific stocks. Or more weight in gold.

Or more weight in crypto.



MrMatt said:


> In fact there is a lot more talk about how most successful startups have a pivot, where they change direction.


I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure those who pivoted did it once they failed, but that pivot wasn't part of their initial plan because failure was not part of their plan, as they had a vision and a strong conviction. Sure, they may pivot many times, but every time their initial goal wasn't to end up pivoting. Pivoting is not failing, it's adapting. (This works if you build the product iteratively, which is highly recommended)

I have a job about starting new products and the initial stage is to build our vision from our understanding of the needs and the competition. The pivot only comes once the feedback tells us we were wrong.

I'm talking about people who truly have a vision, not those who started a business just to start a business to try to make money. Pure visionaries are not doing it for the money, they are doing it because they are convinced it'll be a gamechanger.

Visionary people I've met have their eyes shining, they are deeply passionate, they barely sleep at night because their brain is boiling, their energy towards their goal (vision) is unstoppable.

Those who truly believe in crypto are willing to invest in that tech. I'm not talking about people who just see a get-rich-quick. I'm part of those who currently see only the get-rich-quick and that's why my rational thinking tells me that I'm gambling and I should be careful. I'm just looking at the 4-year cycle and I just want to hop on for quick money. But the true visionaries are not gambling, they are investing, because they are investing in a vision.

And when I'm talking about "those who truly believe in crypto", I'm not talking about those who believe in it out of thin air or fanboys. I'm talking about those who did an extensive research and built their opinion while being aware of every pros and cons.



MrMatt said:


> As they say "FAIL" is just First Attempt In Learning.


I like the saying "I never lose, I either win or learn".


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> There is a very thin line between someone called a genius and someone being insane.


I don't think the line is as thin as pop culture makes it out to be.

Many entrepreneurs and great people in business have a history of repeated successes, or at least, impressive attempts with controlled failures (or expected ratio of failures). The same goes for investors.

Pop culture makes innovators look like highly erratic, unhinged people but I doubt this is an accurate portrayal. I have two friends from school who have become fabulously rich (hundreds of millions$) from a combination of business creation and innovation. One guy was an extremely smart student and had a long history of success and high performance as far back as age 12.

The other was already active in business ventures when he was 19 or 20 years old, and I remember he was making money doing some impressive things back then. So he always had a knack for finding opportunities to make money. He just kept finding opportunities at larger and larger scales, but there was a proven track record here.

Both these guys made it huge, and in both cases, it didn't come out of nowhere.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> m3s I know that you are believe strongly in the future of this tech, but you should also consider that you might be wrong. Perhaps the way to approach this is a diversified portfolio where you're something like 90% in stocks/bonds and maybe 10% (or less) in cryptocurrency ventures.


Yea I believe in diversification. Ideally 20% max exposure to an asset class

I also believe cash and bonds are broken due to government manipulation and this has also broken traditional diversification models. Crypto happens to be the best hedge against this manipulation. Since crypto is outside of my registered accounts I'm letting my winners run so long as I believe in it long term and the government keeps printing trillions in monopoly money

The risk is to the upside in this climate and you are hurting yourself by having so little exposure to this new asset


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> Yea I believe in diversification. Ideally 20% max exposure to an asset class


I agree with you here, that diversification is important.



m3s said:


> I also believe cash and bonds are broken due to government manipulation and this has also broken traditional diversification models


I disagree here and see no evidence that cash and bonds are "broken". I've been hearing this argument for about 15 years... it's often used by people who are trying to sell higher risk investments.

It's not a new argument. Although it sounds like some kind of deep analysis, you might want to consider that it's a frequently used marketing ploy.



m3s said:


> Crypto happens to be the best hedge against this manipulation.


I disagree with this as well.

Money started flooding into crypto as soon as the stimulus started. That's quite literally government manipulation (liquidity) that is affecting the crypto market and pushing prices up. Therefore, crypto prices are impacted by government manipulation in quite a similar way to other assets.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> It's not a new argument. Although it sounds like some kind of deep analysis, you might want to consider that it's a frequently used marketing ploy.


It's basic math.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I disagree here and see no evidence that cash and bonds are "broken". I've been hearing this argument for about 15 years... it's often used by people who are trying to sell higher risk investments.
> 
> It's not a new argument. Although it sounds like some kind of deep analysis, you might want to consider that it's a frequently used marketing ploy.


Oh I see lots of evidence that cash and bonds are "broken".
Now broken to the point of uselessness, no.

Broken to the the point that many are seeking alternatives, yes.

Now are there enough people seeking alternatives... maybe.

The thing is conventionally the "goldbugs" would rely on physical gold, which is obnoxious to deal with, and near impossible to handle digitally. Digital currencies address those flaws. 

The currency minded ones are cheap and easy to handle.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> The thing is conventionally the "goldbugs" would rely on physical gold, which is obnoxious to deal with, and near impossible to handle digitally. Digital currencies address those flaws.


Impossible to handle digitally? You're dreaming. GLD is an incredibly liquid, gold-backed ETF, and even Canada has several domestic ones. They are low cost and actually backed by true assets. You can even see the listings of the bar serial numbers in the vaults, disclosed by iShares daily.

Digital currencies are not really contributing anything novel, at least not in their current form.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Impossible to handle digitally? You're dreaming. GLD is an incredibly liquid, gold-backed ETF, and even Canada has several domestic ones. They are low cost and actually backed by true assets. You can even see the listings of the bar serial numbers in the vaults, disclosed by iShares daily.
> 
> Digital currencies are not really contributing anything novel, at least not in their current form.


"You're dreaming.", yes, you are. Star Trek Transporters aren't a reality.

Read my statement again, I bolded the important part, which you obviously missed.
"*physical* gold, which is obnoxious to deal with, and near impossible to handle digitally"

I actually don't know how you can transfer physical gold digitally. You can transfer the *promise *of gold, but actually transfer the physical gold.. nope.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> I actually don't know how you can transfer physical gold digitally. You can transfer the *promise *of gold, but actually transfer the physical gold.. nope.


Physical gold can indeed be a nuisance to handle.

But you're being pedantic with the terminology. Each unit of (for example MNT) is ownership of X ounces of gold in the vaults of the Royal Canadian Mint. It can even be redeemed and converted to gold, which they will ship to you in armoured trucks. With a minimum # of shares of course.

MNT units are, basically, a digital currency backed by gold. Electronic currencies with a far more tangible basis than crypto coins have existed for a while, with MNT being a good example.

So if you're the kind of person who is extremely excited about digital currencies that aren't based on fiat dollars ... you must be really excited about MNT. And it's been around for many years now.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Physical gold can indeed be a nuisance to handle.
> 
> But you're being pedantic with the terminology. Each unit of (for example MNT) is ownership of X ounces of gold in the vaults of the Royal Canadian Mint. It can even be redeemed and converted to gold, which they will ship to you in armoured trucks. With a minimum # of shares of course.
> 
> MNT units are, basically, a digital currency backed by gold. Electronic currencies with a far more tangible basis than crypto coins have existed for a while, with MNT being a good example.
> 
> So if you're the kind of person who is extremely excited about digital currencies that aren't based on fiat dollars ... you must be really excited about MNT. And it's been around for many years now.


I wasn't being pedantic. I was specifically talking about a specific thing (physical gold)
It is hard to work with PHYSICAL gold. It is easy to worth with the promise of physical gold. It's a very very important distinction. If you hold physical gold, that is a very different thing than having someones promise that they have some gold for you.

But you know I'm not the kind of person who is extremely excited about digital currencies that aren't based on fiat dollars, they're dumb.
Just like the fascination with gold as a "store of value" also not interesting.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> There are a lot of visionaries who DO engage with fallbacks and backup plans.


Pema Chödrön










To me, this quote reinforce my point of view that pure visionaries don't have a backup plan, because they have a goal, a vision, and failure is not part of the path. The instant that you allow yourself to ask yourself "what if it doesn't work", you start doubting, you let your attention be distracted by the idea of an undesirable future instead of fully living the present moment, you start visualizing failure instead of success, you start thinking about a backup plan, which means you allow yourself to fail from your current vision and you will likely fail because that plan B will be comforting when times are hard, instead of pushing yourself further towards your vision. Does that mean that your vision will not pivot towards another goal? No. That's part of the path, that's not failure, that's adapting from retrospection and observations made along the way, bringing new information. There's a difference between taking the uneasy road while being aware of the easy road not too far away VS taking the uneasy road and deciding what will be the next road you'll take once you stumble upon crossroads along your way.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> To me, this quote reinforce my point of view that pure visionaries don't have a backup plan, because they have a goal, a vision, and failure is not part of the path.


I think you have a false view of "visionary".
Elon Musk is a great example, he has LOTS of backup plans, he never expected SpaceX to launch their first rocket successfully, he's got a whole slew of them, because we KNOW failure will happen.

Visionaries have a vision, they don't need to have some silly view that it will all work out, and everything will go according to plan.
They know there will be problems, they know there will be setbacks, they know that the first X attempts won't work.

Brings to mind another quotes, from someone who accomplished something notable.
*Edison* replied, "I didn't *fail* 1,000 times. The light bulb was an invention with 1,000 steps." "Great success is built on *failure*, frustration, even catastrophy." 


Oh and just a rebuttal, to your quote.
What has Pema Chödrön done?
Are they a thought leader who says catchy crap, but doesn't actually accomplish anything?


----------



## MrBlackhill

I think we don't agree because we use a different definition of a "backup plan". I'm talking about having a vision with no backup plan, which means no safety net with less uncertainty and less risk, which means not allowing yourself to easily abandon your vision, your goal, *no matter how many obstacles and failures your face*.

To me, if you want to launch a rocket to the moon and if rocket A fails then you try rocket B, that's not the kind of backup plan I'm talking about because in both cases the vision stays the same : launching a rocket to the moon.

The kind of backup plan I'm talking about is a safety net in case you abandon your vision. For instance, an extreme example would be that you could tell yourself "if I can't launch a rocket to the moon, I could change job and sell cars".



MrMatt said:


> *Edison* replied, "I didn't *fail* 1,000 times. The light bulb was an invention with 1,000 steps.


This quote is exactly what I was trying to explain here.



MrBlackhill said:


> That's part of the path, that's not failure, that's adapting from retrospection and observations made along the way, bringing new information. There's a difference between taking the uneasy road while being aware of the easy road not too far away VS taking the uneasy road and deciding what will be the next road you'll take once you stumble upon crossroads along your way.


Edison had the vision that he would build a light bulb, a device that emits light from electricity. Did he have a backup plan? No! He never told himself "what if I can't make that light bulb work?" He never had a backup plan like "well, if it doesn't workout, I'll just sell candles". No! He had the vision that he would make that light bulb idea work and he did. As I said, every "failure" wasn't a failure, it was new information, crossroads towards new possibilities but for the same vision.

You see the 1000 ways he tried to make the light bulb work as 1000 backup plans, but it's not, it's 1000 pivots. The definition of a backup plan is a safety net that you are confident to fall back on, that has less risk, less uncertainty.

That's as if you said that a student failing his exam 3 times before succeeding had 3 backup plans, while I'm saying that a backup plan is a student failing his exam and deciding to switch to an easier program instead of continuing towards his dream.



MrMatt said:


> Elon Musk is a great example, he has LOTS of backup plans, he never expected SpaceX to launch their first rocket successfully, he's got a whole slew of them, because we KNOW failure will happen.


Again, those are not backup plans. Elon Musk had the vision to launch his rocket and he did. He didn't tell himself "well, if the rocket launch doesn't work, I'll ditch the SpaceX vision and fallback on my currently successful Tesla business".

I think you don't understand that a failure doesn't mean that you fallback on a backup plan. A backup plan is when you abandon your current goal. Edison and Elon Musk never abandoned, never had that safety net. They don't fall back, they fall forward.



MrMatt said:


> Oh and just a rebuttal, to your quote.
> What has Pema Chödrön done?
> Are they a thought leader who says catchy crap, but doesn't actually accomplish anything?


She has written tens of books inspiring and enlightening* millions of people in this crazy world where people solely focus on wealth, productivity, social status and looks. She has helped numerous communities, she has done multiples teachings, events and activities.

*enlightening : Maybe I shouldn't use this English word, because to some people it's the kind of word used only by spiritual freaks, it sounds like esoteric garbage. Yet I still believe it is the right word.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Again, those are not backup plans. Elon Musk had the vision to launch his rocket and he did. He didn't tell himself "well, if the rocket launch doesn't work, I'll ditch the SpaceX vision and fallback on my currently successful Tesla business".





> I think you don't understand that a failure doesn't mean that you fallback on a backup plan. A backup plan is when you abandon your current goal. Edison and Elon Musk never abandoned, never had that safety net. They don't fall back, they fall forward.


Oh I didn't realize Elon was still running Zip2.
or the companies he was fired from.

What is the Boring company up to, oh wait Elon stepped back to focus on something else.

My point isn't that they're not focused on their goals
I simply reject that they are "burn the boats" committed, or even that they should be.

Most businesses fail, and many "visionaries" fail along the way.
They DO have alternatives, and pivots and backup plans.

Heck Google clearly identifies "moonshoot" projects because they EXPECT failure at times.

Planning to survive a failure isn't a lack of vision, or commitment, it's the understanding that things don't always work out how you want them to. True visionaries can also accept that there are unseen pitfalls, and plan for them.
Finally when things aren't working, they give up, at least for a while.
Apple put the Newton on the back burner for many years, until the world was ready for it.


"people solely focus on wealth, productivity, social status and looks.", many agree those are silly focuses. I think a single minded focus on anything can be pretty harmful. But if you read just a little into applied philosophy, you they're pretty consistent that those are the wrong things to focus on anyway. 
Apparently she's not pushing anything new or unique, just regurgitating well established truths. Hardly visionary IMO.


----------



## sags

There are a handful of success stories to point to, but nobody tracks the multitude of "visionaries" who ended their lives as destitute failures.

The media doesn't cover their stories because nobody wants to hear about them. It is "tough luck mate".......for them.


----------



## off.by.10

sags said:


> There are a handful of success stories to point to, but nobody tracks the multitude of "visionaries" who ended their lives as destitute failures.
> 
> The media doesn't cover their stories because nobody wants to hear about them. It is "tough luck mate".......for them.


Indeed, survivorship bias at its finest.

The same happens with tech. I'm sure that a while ago there were plenty of people saying BlackBerry would revolutionize the world. They were mostly right about the revolution, wrong about BlackBerry. Now the narrative is how Apple changed the world.

I expect something similar will happen with currency. There are great ideas and there is great technology but there isn't a great "product" yet.


----------



## MrBlackhill




----------



## Mukhang pera

How crypto can get you totally scammed:





__





2021 BCSC 813 Nelson v. Gokturk






www.bccourts.ca


----------



## m3s

Mukhang pera said:


> How crypto can get you totally scammed:


@Mukhang pera I don't see ANYTHING specific to crypto here.. in fact it involves a CAD wire transfer

If you and I agree here on this forum that I will wire you $500,000 CAD for your island.. Would you just give me the deed and then wonder where your $500,000 CAD was?

There will always be scams so long as there are dumbasses regardless of the form of payment (in this case CAD!)


----------



## james4beach

Mukhang pera said:


> How crypto can get you totally scammed:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2021 BCSC 813 Nelson v. Gokturk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bccourts.ca


Are the damages $500,000 or $3,000,000 ? Wow. Here is your world-changing money transfer method of the future:

​At 8:50 am, Gokturk wrote “Morning Scott, let me know if you have any interest in selling 25-50 BTC today”.​At 8:52 am, Nelson wrote “Could do. What price are you offering for 25?”​At 8:52 am, Nelson wrote “And for 50??”​At 8:52 am, Gokturk wrote “10,500 could do 10,600 for 50”.​At 9:43 am, Gokturk wrote “10700?”​At 9:46 am, Nelson wrote “Checking... Sec”​At 9:47 am, Gokturk wrote “done”.​At 9:47 am, Nelson wrote “Yes can sell 50 at 10700”.​At 9:48 am, Gokturk wrote “Yessir. Can do wire as well if you prefer due to size.”​At 9:48 am, Nelson wrote “Bank draft?”​At 9:48 am, Gokturk wrote “Usual wallet: 3B5Djh4xNLFcTMdwEsWYoYdlGGSYrNorbg”.​At 9:49 am, Nelson wrote “Will take me 30 minutes to transmit as I’m out at the moment”.​At 9:50 am, Nelson wrote “Will send Wire instructions”.​At 9:50 am, Gokturk wrote “Ok”.​At 10:09 am, Nelson wrote “Here is what you need to send the wire to me” and attached a PDF document titled “Vancity_Wire_account.pdf’.​At 10:10 am, Nelson wrote “Sending 50BTC to the above address in exchange for $535,000CAD”.​At 10:12 am, Gokturk wrote “Got it, setting up.”​

This is the kind of trouble a person gets into when they decide not to use a real currency or a real bank.

Who in their right mind thinks this is a better way to do transactions than with a real currency?? Can you imagine the chaos in the world if this was how things were done? Arranging multi-million $ transactions through chat apps. Unbelievable.

Followed by non delivery of the coinz. Imagine that. And the gambling coinz are so volatile that who knows what they are worth, from minute to minute.

I do wires and electronic transfers (using real currencies) on a regular basis. Over all these years, I have not once had a payment go missing. And even if it did, there is recourse and tracing available through banks. Wires are very reliable, and they are automatically reported through anti-money laundering systems as well.

I just billed one of my customers for four thousand bucks yesterday. Something tells me that the money is going to show up at my RBC account, as it reliably always does. And I can even tell you how many $ it will be worth, when I receive it.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> This is the kind of trouble a person gets into when they decide not to use a real currency or a real bank.


This isn't a crypto or DeFi transaction

They tried to exchange crypto using "a real currency and a real bank"

No point in reading the rest of your post.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Are the damages $500,000 or $3,000,000 ? Wow. Here is your world-changing money transfer method of the future:
> 
> ​At 8:50 am, Gokturk wrote “Morning Scott, let me know if you have any interest in selling 25-50 BTC today”.​At 8:52 am, Nelson wrote “Could do. What price are you offering for 25?”​At 8:52 am, Nelson wrote “And for 50??”​At 8:52 am, Gokturk wrote “10,500 could do 10,600 for 50”.​At 9:43 am, Gokturk wrote “10700?”​At 9:46 am, Nelson wrote “Checking... Sec”​At 9:47 am, Gokturk wrote “done”.​At 9:47 am, Nelson wrote “Yes can sell 50 at 10700”.​At 9:48 am, Gokturk wrote “Yessir. Can do wire as well if you prefer due to size.”​At 9:48 am, Nelson wrote “Bank draft?”​At 9:48 am, Gokturk wrote “Usual wallet: 3B5Djh4xNLFcTMdwEsWYoYdlGGSYrNorbg”.​At 9:49 am, Nelson wrote “Will take me 30 minutes to transmit as I’m out at the moment”.​At 9:50 am, Nelson wrote “Will send Wire instructions”.​At 9:50 am, Gokturk wrote “Ok”.​At 10:09 am, Nelson wrote “Here is what you need to send the wire to me” and attached a PDF document titled “Vancity_Wire_account.pdf’.​At 10:10 am, Nelson wrote “Sending 50BTC to the above address in exchange for $535,000CAD”.​At 10:12 am, Gokturk wrote “Got it, setting up.”​
> 
> This is the kind of trouble a person gets into when they decide not to use a real currency or a real bank.
> 
> Who in their right mind thinks this is a better way to do transactions than with a real currency?? Can you imagine the chaos in the world if this was how things were done? Arranging multi-million $ transactions through chat apps. Unbelievable.
> 
> Followed by non delivery of the coinz. Imagine that. And the gambling coinz are so volatile that who knows what they are worth, from minute to minute.
> 
> I do wires and electronic transfers (using real currencies) on a regular basis. Over all these years, I have not once had a payment go missing. And even if it did, there is recourse and tracing available through banks. Wires are very reliable, and they are automatically reported through anti-money laundering systems as well.
> 
> I just billed one of my customers for four thousand bucks yesterday. Something tells me that the money is going to show up at my RBC account, as it reliably always does. And I can even tell you how many $ it will be worth, when I receive it.


Someone transferred ownership of an item without securing payment.
People don't pay for stuff all the time.

The thing you're missing is the bitcoin part worked EXACTLY as intended.
It was transmitted and both parties were able to confirm receipt and completion of the transaction.

I personally think it's a bad idea to send the product before you receive payment.

Replace "chat app" with "website", or "email" and you're back at early ecommerce.

I recall in the early 90's buying a math coprocessor for my 386 by FidoNet (echomail).

Also this is why DeFi is important.
Imagine if that the payment and the item being sold were held by an automated "escrow" to do the swap.
That would have solved this problem.

The problem here was the inability to link the transfer of the $ with the BTC.


----------



## sags

The extreme volatility of bitcoins and other crypto, which can be worth more or less by the time it takes to execute a contract, is why crypto is unsuitable for transactions.

It is also unsuitable as a currency and a store of wealth. It doesn't actually do anything but waste energy.

Time to put that puppy to bed and for the nerds to realize the Lambos and mansions aren't coming.


----------



## sags

Despite all the hype of how bitcoin price has risen in value from nothing to $64,000 the recent drop in bitcoin prices means that a lot of people own bitcoins worth much less than they paid for them. 

Anyone who bought for more than the current $36,000 price is in the hole.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Anyone who bought for more than the current $36,000 price is in the hole.


Well it's back to where it was a few months ago.. (in terms of USD) and t has always come back better than any other asset over the past decade.

Wise old gents should at least understand the concept of long-term horizons. You are measuring value with unit of measurement that just grew by TRILLIONS

Surprisingly many on a "money" forum fail to grasp some basic concepts and crypto brings this to light


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> Wise old gents should at least understand the concept of long-term horizons. You are measuring value with unit of measurement that just grew by TRILLIONS


But there is no long-term data on the crypto coins. They haven't existed long term! We have no idea what will happen with them.

I am willing to reconsider them and perhaps even add them to my portfolio, maybe in 10 or 20 years. By then there will be at least some pricing information so we can understand more about how that market behaves.

At the moment though, we have no idea if BTC and ETH prices will hold up and still be around ~ 10 years from now. I'll take another look at them in 10 years and see how they've been doing.



m3s said:


> Surprisingly many on a "money" forum fail to grasp some basic concepts


A very basic concept I rely on is demonstrated historical track record. Crypto coins have NO demonstrated historical track record.


----------



## sags

Bitcoin has a decade of history of failure of it's original purpose, but success as a highly speculative digital object.

Bitcoin will retain value for only as long as people believe someone else will pay them more for it.


----------



## hboy54

m3s said:


> Well it's back to where it was a few months ago.. (in terms of USD) and t has always come back better than any other asset over the past decade.
> 
> Wise old gents should at least understand the concept of long-term horizons. You are measuring value with unit of measurement that just grew by TRILLIONS
> 
> Surprisingly many on a "money" forum fail to grasp some basic concepts and crypto brings this to light


I may be dumb as dirt boomer who doesn't grasp what you do, but I am up 50% $1M in 17 months (YE 2019) without crypto. It seems reasonable to me that as long as humans are 3 dimension physical entities, having my investments based also in that same 3 dimension physical space has a higher determinate/lower luck outcome.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Bitcoin has a decade of history of failure of it's original purpose, but success as a highly speculative digital object.
> 
> Bitcoin will retain value for only as long as people believe someone else will pay them more for it.


What failure?
I'd say that the original purpose as a proof of concept for a public ledger system was a wild success, far beyond what anyone ever guessed.


----------



## sags

The ransomware hacks continue relentlessly, with recent attacks on corporations, pipelines, hospitals, and other entities.

The calls for governments to ban crypto are increasing. Other than for illegal activity, there isn't much use of energy gulping crypto.

Expect announcements from governments that all crypto is banned. It is only a matter of when now.


----------



## sags

Ledger's existed long before bitcoins. Proof of concept......who cares when it is a bad concept ?


----------



## m3s




----------



## sags

LOL......memes are funny but for gosh sakes, if you want to collect coins.......collect real ones.


----------



## wayward__son

m3s doing God’s work on this forum. For the crypto enthusiasts who may be reading, make sure to heed call further upthread to be ready to smash the sell button hard when the more vocal naysayers here announce their capitulation / FOMO buys later this year on the next parabolic move up. That should be a fairly reliable top tick (jokes!)


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Ledger's existed long before bitcoins. Proof of concept......who cares when it is a bad concept ?


Distributed ledgers, where you can update your portion, without going throuh a third party verifying who you are is new.

Why do you think it's a bad concept? I think you don't understand it.

I do expect governments will come for it, just like some governments block internet access, or hold back other technologies they don't understand.

I think your opposition is you don't understand the technology, therefore you want to ban it. 
Why because clearly you're the smartest person, and if you don't see the point there must be no point.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The ransomware hacks continue relentlessly, with recent attacks on corporations, pipelines, hospitals, and other entities.
> 
> The calls for governments to ban crypto are increasing. Other than for illegal activity, there isn't much use of energy gulping crypto.
> 
> Expect announcements from governments that all crypto is banned. It is only a matter of when now.


The ransomware hacks are a red herring.
If you were to hack someone for a ransom, you wouldn't give them your bank account number to deposit the money into.

If wanted to catch people demanding ransoms, I can't think of a BETTER tool to catch them than Bitcoin.
Every bitcoin they have is fully traceable, you can see every transaction they have ever made. It's like walking around with a suitcase of bills that announce to everyone where they came from, and alert the police every time you spend it.

Most countries would LOVE surveillance coins.

Imagine you go to a garage sale, or hire the neighbour to mow your lawn. The government would know, and they could ask why you didn't pay sales tax, or income tax etc. Crypto can be the greatest anti tax evasion innovation in history.
Governments who understand this, don't want to ban it.


----------



## m3s

wayward__son said:


> For the crypto enthusiasts who may be reading, make sure to heed call further upthread to be ready to smash the sell button hard when the more vocal naysayers here announce their capitulation / FOMO buys later this year on the next parabolic move up. That should be a fairly reliable top tick (jokes!)


"If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you, sorry" Satoshi Nakamoto on a web forum in 2010.

Like Satoshi, I've pretty much capitulated from really trying to convince people. Indeed I do keep track of the naysayers as an indication of when to take profits. @james4beach has been taking the coinbase crypto courses lately and @sags has dabbled in trading BTC ETFs. Small steps. There are easier ways to start like using Brave browser (oh Gitcoin just launched its governance token and I got more crypto coinz just for having participated in the past.. these days won't last my friends)

When this pandemic subsides and my current work with the space force is complete, maybe I will do like Satoshi and stop wasting my time.


----------



## wayward__son

No harm testing ideas on open forum. Although I’m comfortable with the trade I’m in and happy to let the market be the referee — I like to check in on different places in the wilds of the open internet just to see if there are any new arguments against. There never are, but even that is useful — helps with my conviction.


----------



## sags

The price of bitcoins falls as criminals get nervous the US can grab their bitcoins, as they did the oil company ransom bitcoins.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The price of bitcoins falls as criminals get nervous the US can grab their bitcoins, as they did the oil company ransom bitcoins.


Huh? They've been seizing or marking bitcoins for years. This isn't news.
Also that they knew exactly where the ransom was paid isn't news, this is a key feature of bitcoin, and exactly why it is not suitable for collecting ransoms.


----------



## sags

Wow........some token called Titan used on a DEFI network called IRON collapsed from $65 each to a fraction of a penny overnight.

Just a couple of days ago they were bragging about a "locked in value" of $2 billion. Today it is worth nothing. "Locked in value"........LOL.

Mark Cuban was one of the promoters and claims on Twitter that he got hit too. Then he admits that he managed to "get out" near the all time highs.

Lucky for him and the other celebrities who pump crypto on their social media and then miraculously sell out at the high prices ?

Or maybe it isn't just good luck ?

_"On social media, some internet users speculated that the TITAN collapse was *a ‘rug pull’ which is a type of scam where crypto systems are shut-down, in a similar fashion to a more traditional ‘pump and dump’ share trading scheme."*_









Mark Cuban endorsed token 'TITAN' plummets 100%


Mark Cuban endorsed DeFi token TITAN has lost 100% of its value due to a bank run on the Iron Finance project by investors.




coingeek.com





All cypto proves is how easy it is to scam dupes out of billions of dollars, over and over and over because....dupes be dupes.









Bitcoin Holds Gains as Titan Token Collapse Rattles Crypto Market


As crypto markets attempt to unravel the multi-billion collapse of the Titan token, the SEC punted for a second time on its review of a Bitcoin ETF.




www.thestreet.com


----------



## sags

At least pumper Michael Saylor of Microstrategy appears to be committed to bitcoins to the bitter end.

As the CEO he is spending money the company doesn't have to buy bitcoins, to leverage down the cost of his previous bitcoins which have lost a lot of money.

He is paying 6% interest because his company can no longer borrow at normal rates. It sounds like a company everyone should invest in............LOL.

Peter Schiff says Saylor has gone full bonkers. I think he is right.


----------



## MrMatt

Yawn, old news.
People often buy stuff of dubious value.

I have no idea how anyone puts a price of bitcoin, seems like ponzi scheme, but one that might be strong enough to survive, like some government currencies have.

Myself I think the platform coins that do something are useful.

There are lots of these s**tcoins out there that are scams, just like lots of stupid dotcom companies that made no sense.
I wont' say that all crypto is worthless, just like even during the peak of the dot-com boom, I didn't say all tech companies were worthless.


----------



## MrMatt

Okay, as an example, lets take Storj. I think the way it works today isn't quite there, but it is almost.

The idea is simple, I pay you to store data on your hard drive, and you serve it up.

But lets say I have a website, what if I pay you a penny or two to host a tiny portion of it, part time.
so like at night with a bit of your hard drive you're not using it serves up a few pages for me.
I pay you in based on how many hits your computer actually delivers for me.

Now we could do this like a hosting company.
or we could do it through bittorrent where you're rewarded by ratio, you host X for me, I host X for you, with some authority measuring.
Or we could replace that authority with a shared contract, like some sort of crypto coin so we can all trade "web hosting" services with each other.

Honestly it would cost me almost nothing to upload a few gigs/day of traffic, and I'd be able to do this charging far less than Amazon does for web hosting.
What about a Computer graphics renderfarm?
What if [email protected] could pay you for the work you did?

So many options, but you just see a few scammers. You're missing the point.


----------



## james4beach

John Mcafee, a long-time crypto currency advocate and promoter, has committed suicide in a Spanish jail right before extradition to the US.

The US DOJ was charging him with crimes relating to his crypto currency business and tax evasion. Famously, McAfee had promised his followers that bitcoin would reach $1,000,000 by the end of last year. He's a proud libertarian who hates the government and believes that he is not subject to government rule.

I expect a mountain of Bitcoin and crypto related charges from the DOJ in the coming years. There's been way too much money laundering, tax evasion and criminal trades happening with crypto currencies. This is the primary reason these things exist, after all.


----------



## MrBlackhill

So... Are crypto currencies on a move to a new all-time high pretty soon?


----------



## m3s

Seems like every financial service in the US is integrating crypto now. The legacy banks are paying Gemini, Coinbase etc for custody. FAANG is all hiring blockchain related positions. Crypto exchanges are launching banking services, credit/debit cards and DeFi services. DeFi development is exploding. Miners are moving from China to Texas to use the flared off sites (overwise wasted nat gas)

HIVE is building a new site in my home province which is not known for tech at all. HUT and BITF marketcaps are much lower than US counterparts even though they uplisted to NASDAQ and generate more BTC at lower costs. I scooped up HUT and BITF when China kicked out their miners but I won't hodl them too long. Imagine if Saudi Aramco realizes they could use wasted flare off like Texas


----------



## m3s

Up to 1 million' bitcoin processors could be relocated to Alberta from China under energy firm's proposal

Apparently Alberta is also a good location to capture gas flare offs. Heck maybe we can heat Alberta homes with BTC miners? Maybe Alberta's chance for redemption.

All Canada would have to do is tax crypto like a currency instead of every transaction as a taxable event and we could brain drain all the DeFi developers from the US. Then our economy would generate some intellectual property instead of just harvesting natural resources and hoping the market prices are good.

A single 87 year old dinosaur US senator refused to amend crypto legislation "because he didn't get his $30B in defense funding"


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> All Canada would have to do is tax crypto like a currency instead of every transaction as a taxable event


Isn't every transaction of currency a taxable event?

Moving currency or crypto wallet to wallet shouldn't be a taxable event, unless it's a transfer of ownership


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Isn't every transaction of currency a taxable event?


No. When I buy a chocolate bar in USD I don't report it as a capital gain/loss based on my ACB of USD and Canadian market value of chocolate bars on that exact date. Why would CRA want that mess

Yet if I buy a movie ticket at AMC (who claims they will accept BTC soon) I would have to pay capital gains. I don't mind capital gains tax but this will be asinine for everyone involved

US senate amendment to the infrastructure bill wants every crypto node to submit 1099 KYC forms to the IRS for every single computer they transact with. Only 1 senator disagreed and only because he didn't get his increased military industrial complex

Janet Yellen receives millions from the legacy finance she is supposed to be regulating. Democracy



MrMatt said:


> Moving currency or crypto wallet to wallet shouldn't be a taxable event, unless it's a transfer of ownership


Yes. It's when you buy something with crypto

Also airdrops and staking rewards are taxed the day you receive them. That's like taxing potatoes the day you harvest them instead of the day you sell them. They could be worth less by the time I sell them and you might not even know you have airdrops (or potatoes growing)

Either way MMT is a boomer disaster spiral of debt since 2008 and crypto adoption is increasing faster than the internet in the 90s


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> No. When I buy a chocolate bar in USD I don't have to document it as a capital gain/loss based on my ACB of USD and Canadian market value of chocolate bars on that exact date.


Actually if you make a foreign currency transaction you DO have to document and declare it. Though there is an exemption for small values




__





Foreign currencies - Canada.ca


Foreign currencies




www.canada.ca







> Yet if I buy a movie ticket at AMC (who claims they will accept BTC soon) I would have to pay capital gains. I don't mind capital gains tax but this will be asinine for CRA to track every single little transaction.


Just like if you bought a movie ticket in USD. (again, except for the little transaction exemption)




> Also airdrops and staking rewards are taxed the day you receive them. That's like taxing potatoes the day you harvest them instead of the day you sell them.


Or taxing dividends the day they issue them.
When my US holding pays me a USD dividend, I get taxed on that day. Why shouldn't I be taxed the same for my staking payouts?
Again treating crypto like a currency.

It actually seems like you just want crypto to be some magical asset that escapes all the taxes and drag of conventional assets and currencies.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> It actually seems like you just want crypto to be some magical asset that escapes all the taxes and drag of conventional assets and currencies.


No I just want it to be treated fairly

Nobody is reporting all their foreign currency transactions let's get real. I've lived with the Euro and USD for years and nobody is doing this. How would I possibly even do that it would be asinine. Cash is where all the tax evasion is at least with blockchain I can have software calculate it all. Staking revenue should be taxed but I shouldn't need to KYC every peer or pay unrealized income tax like the US is considering

Lots of new wealth is bleeding out of US and Canada because of this treatment. This is unfortunate


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> No I just want it to be treated fairly
> 
> Nobody is reporting all their foreign currency transactions let's get real. I've lived with the Euro and USD for years and nobody is doing this. How would I possibly even do that it would be asinine. Cash is where all the tax evasion is at least with blockchain I can have software calculate it all. Staking revenue should be taxed but I shouldn't need to KYC every peer or pay unrealized income tax like the US is considering
> 
> Lots of new wealth is bleeding out of US and Canada because of this treatment. This is unfortunate


I agree, cash, because it is untraceable, is widely used for tax evasion.
I don't think the answer is to make things fair by allowing tax evasion on digital currencies too.

Either tax it all the same, (as the law is now). Or remove the taxes on all currency transactions.
There is virtually no chance that governments will give up taxing something.

That's why governments are trying to figure out how to allow tracked crypto, while banning/restricting private crypto. Could you imagine if they could sqeeze more tax out of every single chocolate bar you buy? Or when you give that kid $20 for mowing your lawn.


----------



## sags

We will see what any of the existing crypto is worth after the US creates their digital USD.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> We will see what any of the existing crypto is worth after the US creates their digital USD.


This will be great for mass adoption as it will facilitate the transfer of value from the legacy system to blockchains

It won't change that USD is being minted faster than Dogecoins and that legacy system now has 0% reserve currency as of 2020.

USD value is going down sags. That is what inflation is.


----------



## sags

All the crypto is based on USD, so the dollar losing value fo inflation is irrelevant. As long as crypto is valued in USD it is losing to inflation as well.

Inflation is normal in a capital system and is why wages and prices are higher now than in 1960. Inflation isn't a problem by itself.

It is the relationship of incomes to prices that matters. If price inflation outstrips wage inflation......that is a problem that needs to be fixed.

You may not be old enough to remember, but when high inflation was rampaging in Canada, PM Pierre Trudeau instituted "wage and price" controls.

He put limits on both wages and prices because it is the balance that is relevant and important. 

Incidentally, former Conservative PM Robert Stanfield also lobbied for wage and price controls in 1974.....before Trudeau implemented them.

When the US mints it's own digital currency, that won't be all that it does. It will simultaneously make all other crypto illegal.......as in counterfeit money.

The day the US announces the "new US dollar based crypto"........is the day all other crypto dies.


----------



## sags

I find it amusing that people believe the US will allow unknown minters of coins to usurp their control over the countries currency.

What do they think the US is going to do...........say, yea okay......you fellas just print up your own money ?

People can do that now.......and some try, but it is considered a serious criminal offense with onerous penalties, including long prison terms.


----------



## m3s

I have yet to hear any reasonable argument and nothing even close here. It all comes from those who are wildly uninformed, out dated, biased and/or unable to envision the future. People with a long history of being on the wrong side of trades. Or those who want to confuse you while buying up the dips.

According to the current US government crypto currency and digital assets are here to stay. Why would all the US banks be getting involved otherwise. Crypto is supported by many state senators and governors because innovation is very good for the US. Some US states are adopting crypto and some US cities are already developing their own.

Of course the US could devolve into something like China someday with its ban on crypto so that it can control and monitor all digital yuan transactions. That's what the old guard hags like Janet Yellen want to keep her multimillion "speaking fees" from the banks and what the corporate owned MSM want you to believe

Anyways there is 0 benefit to me spending my time convincing you sags. The benefit would only be to yourself to open your mind. If it wasn't for all the travel restrictions and supply shortages on new yachts I would already be long gone. Good luck with your fight


----------



## Jimmy

The US and other countries can create digital currencies all they want. They will have no impact on the success and adoption of the universal crypto currencies which still have the big advantage of removing foreign exchange rate risk.

Going digital doesn't make the $US any less volatile on forex markets.


----------



## bgc_fan

Maybe it's just me, but if a currency isn't accepted to be exchanged for goods, it really isn't a useful currency. The thing about any digital, or crypto currency backed by a government means that the government will guarantee that it's worth something and that people can exchange it for goods. 
That's where Bitcoin and the like kind of fall apart. Right now Bitcoin is really a digital commodity being sold as currency. Sure, there are limited amounts of businesses that will accept it, but not really enough to prove the point that it's a currency that everyone could make use of. Instead, people are really just buying it and hoping that it increases relative to their domestic currency. As much as you want to criticize fiat currency, when I go to Europe with Euros, I know I can buy a meal, pay for hotel, etc. But with Bitcoin? Not so much.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Maybe it's just me, but if a currency isn't accepted to be exchanged for goods, it really isn't a useful currency. The thing about any digital, or crypto currency backed by a government means that the government will guarantee that it's worth something and that people can exchange it for goods.
> That's where Bitcoin and the like kind of fall apart. Right now Bitcoin is really a digital commodity being sold as currency. Sure, there are limited amounts of businesses that will accept it, but not really enough to prove the point that it's a currency that everyone could make use of. Instead, people are really just buying it and hoping that it increases relative to their domestic currency. As much as you want to criticize fiat currency, when I go to Europe with Euros, I know I can buy a meal, pay for hotel, etc. But with Bitcoin? Not so much.


If you want to buy an NFT, you will likely use a digital currency.
You can buy an increasing number of services online with digital currency as well. Everything from cloud servers to subscriptions and other digital assets.


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> If you want to buy an NFT, you will likely use a digital currency.
> You can buy an increasing number of services online with digital currency as well. Everything from cloud servers to subscriptions and other digital assets.


Well, I don't, and I doubt that there are many average people want to buy NFTs. The market for NFTs strikes me even more smaller than regular art or collectibles.
Not sure where you're getting the cloud servers from, since I imagine you can rent processing time from Amazon in your currency of choice. What digital assets are there that only bitcoin can provide that I couldn't use my credit card or direct payment for?


----------



## m3s

Nobody uses crypto as a currency because it isn't taxed as a currency @bgc_fan You want to spend your depreciating asset which is fiat anyways

It also isn't scaled for small purchases. We are in the late 90s in terms of the internet - high bandwidth exists but hasn't been fully deployed. Layer 2 solutions and scalable blockchains are just launching now. Ethereum is upgrading to be 99% more efficient, better user experience, stable lower fees with L2s and reliable yield for staking. Cardano is even better and about to launch smart contracts in a few weeks

Anyways it's not just you. That majority of people don't get it yet because it's still extremely early. That's ok.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Well, I don't, and I doubt that there are many average people want to buy NFTs. The market for NFTs strikes me even more smaller than regular art or collectibles.
> Not sure where you're getting the cloud servers from, since I imagine you can rent processing time from Amazon in your currency of choice. What digital assets are there that only bitcoin can provide that I couldn't use my credit card or direct payment for?


AWS is one service, I pay by CC, but there are others that accept cryptocurrencies.

Plus cryptocurrency isn't a "digital credit card", that's not the point.
Also you said bitcoin, I don't think anyone uses bitcoin for small purchases, just like you don't use a bank draft for small purchases.


----------



## bgc_fan

m3s said:


> It also isn't scaled for small purchases.


What is defined as small purchases? You say that nobody uses crypto as a currency, do you mean governments? Because I don't see the relevance of taxation.



MrMatt said:


> Plus cryptocurrency isn't a "digital credit card", that's not the point.


No it isn't. I just said credit card as a place holder for traditional currency. At the end of the day, the idea is that cryptocurrency is supposed to provide a universal replacement for traditional, but if not many people, or if only limited amount of companies are going to accept it, then it isn't going to really replace the traditional. Of course the fact that there are different cryptocurrencies kind of run counter of the idea that a SPECIFIC cryptocurrency will be the universal replacement.


----------



## m3s

I just did the Celsius survey for their upcoming USD credit or debit card (Coinbase and BlockFi already have them)

Celsius pays about 9% on stablecoins and might link that to a rewards debit/credit card soon. That means I could immediately convert my disposable pay to stablecoins earning 9% yield and pay my reward card with that. PayPal and Voyager are also launching similar services soon

By the way China is light years ahead with things like WeChat. Even this credit card thing is just a patch of old meets new. WeChat doesn't use cheques or credit cards.. They just send money digitally directly to people or businesses instantly with no fees from their apps.

Canadians and Americans are living so far behind you can't even seem fathom this concept that is already reality. Visa wants you to stay this ignorant


----------



## m3s

bgc_fan said:


> Of course the fact that there are different cryptocurrencies kind of run counter of the idea that a SPECIFIC cryptocurrency will be the universal replacement.


You will just transact in whatever digital currency you want to spend and the other party wants to accept. Might even go through a DEX AMM that converts it for very tiny fees in between (which liquidity providers earn)

You can't even fathom what is coming because the banks are so far behind and obsolete. You are trying to apply the pre-internet world to the new digital reality and you can't imagine the possibilities yet.


----------



## bgc_fan

m3s said:


> By the way China is light years ahead with things like WeChat. Even this credit card thing is just a patch of old meets new. WeChat doesn't use cheques or credit cards.. They just send money digitally directly to people or businesses instantly with no fees from their apps


Unless we're talking about something else, WeChat and Alipay aren't any different than Paypal as a digital wallet. Sure you can pay using them, but they're linked to a bank account or credit card. Even if it isn't that obvious.



m3s said:


> You can't even fathom what is coming because the banks are so far behind and obsolete. You are trying to apply the pre-internet world to the new digital reality and you can't imagine the possibilities yet.


You keep saying this, but at the end of the day, it's meant to be a currency is it not? Meaning that it is used as a basis of goods exchange. What exactly are the possibilities that are upcoming that wouldn't be solved with the old traditional ways? The main one I can think of is the speed of large fund transfers, but that's not something that I personally do on a regular basis.


----------



## m3s

bgc_fan said:


> You keep saying this, but at the end of the day, it's meant to be a currency is it not? Meaning that it is used as a basis of goods exchange. What exactly are the possibilities that are upcoming that wouldn't be solved with the old traditional ways? The main one I can think of is the speed of large fund transfers, but that's not something that I personally do on a regular basis.


Look up DeFi on google

DEX, AMM, NFT, DAO for the basic starters. I've already wasted too much time trying to explain. The space is moving so fast now and you haven't even tried to educate yourself. Otherwise just imagine me lending you money without a 3rd party service taking the spread

WeChat does not need Visa lol.. that is a feature for the western foreigner tourists. Why would they want to pay a US company 3% on every transaction? Many Chinese do not even have a bank anymore they just get paid in an app. Their tech companies became their banks because we have this thing called smartphones and internet now

Wire transfers and paying rent in the USA is hilariously overdue for disruption. WeChat uses the internet or QR codes which negates all the pointless Visa POS terminals, NFC payments etc. B&M banks are basically obsolete (all my local branches closed last year btw..)


----------



## bgc_fan

m3s said:


> Look up DeFi on google
> 
> DEX, AMM, NFT, DAO for the basic starters. I've already wasted too much time trying to explain. The space is moving so fast now and you haven't even tried to educate yourself. Otherwise just imagine me lending you money without a 3rd party service taking the spread
> 
> WeChat does not need Visa lol.. that is a feature for the western foreigner tourists. Why would they want to pay a US company 3% on every transaction? Many Chinese do not even have a bank anymore they just get paid in an app. Their tech companies became their banks because we have this thing called smartphones and internet now
> 
> Wire transfers and paying rent in the USA is hilariously overdue for disruption. WeChat uses the internet or QR codes which negates all the pointless Visa POS terminals, NFC payments etc. B&M banks are basically obsolete (all my local branches closed last year btw..)


WeChat doesn't need Visa, but your WeChat wallet needs some source of funds to start, unless you are only receiving funds, and that's a debit card to start. Your argument is that you're sidestepping the big banks and financial institutions. That's not that big a drive right now in NA. The point being, I'm not really missing out on anything by not jumping into cryptocurrencies right now. 

So decentralized finance. Basically you're talking about doing transactions without the aegis of a central bank, although curiously pegged to the USD with stablecoins. All I'm really getting out of this is a method to reduce fee leakage for Visa and the financial institutions. Like I said, it doesn't strike me as something overly revolutionary, any more than Paypal which seems to address the same issues.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> What is defined as small purchases? You say that nobody uses crypto as a currency, do you mean governments? Because I don't see the relevance of taxation.


I consider small purchases as millionths of a penny.
iota is a good choice for this.



> No it isn't. I just said credit card as a place holder for traditional currency.


It's funny credit card as a placeholder for traditional currency.
Credit cards mostly replaced cash. There was a time when you couldn't buy much with credit cards.



> At the end of the day, the idea is that cryptocurrency is supposed to provide a universal replacement for traditional, but if not many people, or if only limited amount of companies are going to accept it, then it isn't going to really replace the traditional.


That's not the point of cryptocurrency. Some people think it will be a universal replacement, I think that's a shortsighted and limited view of what blockchain technologies offer.
I've said before, cryptocurrency is the LEAST interesting aspect of blockchain. But for some reason people seem fascinated with it.



> Of course the fact that there are different cryptocurrencies kind of run counter of the idea that a SPECIFIC cryptocurrency will be the universal replacement.


Well yeah, if you accept a stupid premise you'll come to a stupid conclusion.
Lets take Bitcoin, there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, and we're constantly losing more, they currently estimate up to 4 million (20% of the total lifetime supply) have already been lost. 
It can't be the only one.

If there is a long lasting single universal cryptocurrency, it will most likely not be bitcoin, it WILL, by design, die off.
It's simply a transitory implementation that happens to be the current frontrunner, and it really doesn't offer much in the way of interesting functionality.


Again, I think blockchain is an interesting technology, I think bitcoin is dumb. I also don't see how you can value any of these coins as high as the markets do now, it looks like tulip mania.


----------



## m3s

bgc_fan said:


> WeChat doesn't need Visa, but your WeChat wallet needs some source of funds to start, unless you are only receiving funds, and that's a debit card to start. Your argument is that you're sidestepping the big banks and financial institutions. That's not that big a drive right now in NA. The point being, I'm not really missing out on anything by not jumping into cryptocurrencies right now.


Many people in developing countries are unbanked or underbanked. Chinese don't need a bank as long as someone pays them on WeChat, AliPay etc. Hence China is developing the digital yuan instead of paying the USA megacorps 3% of every single transaction



bgc_fan said:


> So decentralized finance. Basically you're talking about doing transactions without the aegis of a central bank, although curiously pegged to the USD with stablecoins. All I'm really getting out of this is a method to reduce fee leakage for Visa and the financial institutions. Like I said, it doesn't strike me as something overly revolutionary, any more than Paypal which seems to address the same issues.


I don't know why this is so hard to understand. You earn miniscule % on your fiat while banks make huge profits employing your funds. Now imagine removing skyscrapers full of overhead B&M waste and wealthy exec bonuses. It's so obvious and yet here we are

You can't understand it like grandma can't understand an iPhone I guess?


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I don't know why this is so hard to understand. You earn miniscule % on your fiat while banks make huge profits employing your funds. Now imagine removing skyscrapers full of overhead B&M waste and wealthy exec bonuses. It's so obvious and yet here we are


Because being able to effectively deploy capital is very profitable.
Buffet is able to deploy money better than me.


----------



## m3s

The race to capital efficiency is the new narrative in DeFi and there's already algorithms you can add your capital to

Buffet cannot compete with this new world I'm not sure he even knows where he is anymore not unlike some here


----------



## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Again, I think blockchain is an interesting technology, I think bitcoin is dumb. I also don't see how you can value any of these coins as high as the markets do now, it looks like tulip mania.


Blockchain is an interesting technology, and is useful for things like inventory control, auditing, etc. However, crypto-currencies themselves aren't as useful, which is where we agree. The thing is separating the technology from the implementation.


----------



## m3s

They're actually extremely useful for everything we do online and far more new capabilities we lack

Most people just don't have a very good imagination. I've seen this for decades now


----------



## bgc_fan

m3s said:


> Many people in developing countries are unbanked or underbanked. Chinese don't need a bank as long as someone pays them on WeChat, AliPay etc. Hence China is developing the digital yuan instead of paying the USA megacorps 3% of every single transaction
> 
> 
> 
> I don't know why this is so hard to understand. You earn miniscule % on your fiat while banks make huge profits employing your funds. Now imagine removing skyscrapers full of overhead B&M waste and wealthy exec bonuses. It's so obvious and yet here we are
> 
> You can't understand it like grandma can't understand an iPhone I guess?


You realize that to have a WeChat wallet, you NEED a Chinese bank account right? Otherwise you can't have a WeChat wallet. Which is why tourists who will gladly surrender their ID to the Chinese government can use WeChat via credit cards. https://help.wechat.com/cgi-bin/mic...50821bmjfqb&lang=en&plat=2&Channel=helpcenter

No... you still haven't explained anything other than to try to say I'm out of touch. Paypal, WeChat, AliPay aside, those are all just digital wallets. Tokens that don't depend on the presences of crypto-currencies. They're currency agnostic, and can use them for anything.

All the arguments you are using only talk about not using traditional financial institutions. There's nothing to say a company couldn't develop its own digital wallet. For example, if company X decides to build an ecosystem where you can digitally transfer funds from one person to another via e-mail or some app, you can put all your money into that digital ecosystem and be done with the traditional banks. But there's no need for a crypto-currency to do something like this. You still haven't made the point that crypto-currency can displace fiat currency for everyday usage.


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Blockchain is an interesting technology, and is useful for things like inventory control, auditing, etc. However, crypto-currencies themselves aren't as useful, which is where we agree. The thing is separating the technology from the implementation.


No we don't.

I think cryptocurrencies are incredibly useful. Just not a particularly interesting aspect of the technology.

The ability to transfer something to anyone securely, at very low cost is useful.


----------



## m3s

bgc_fan said:


> You realize that to have a WeChat wallet, you NEED a Chinese bank account right? Otherwise you can't have a WeChat wallet. Which is why tourists who will gladly surrender their ID to the Chinese government can use WeChat via credit cards. https://help.wechat.com/cgi-bin/mic...50821bmjfqb&lang=en&plat=2&Channel=helpcenter


WeChat is a Chinese bank. AliPay is a Chinese bank. China is launching a CBDC soon. USA will probably adopt USDC since they are so far behind. Canada doesn't have a clue.



bgc_fan said:


> All the arguments you are using only talk about not using traditional financial institutions. There's nothing to say a company couldn't develop its own digital wallet. For example, if company X decides to build an ecosystem where you can digitally transfer funds from one person to another via e-mail or some app, you can put all your money into that digital ecosystem and be done with the traditional banks. But there's no need for a crypto-currency to do something like this.


I'm not arguing. You have 0 argument. I'm trying to show you a car and you keep asking where the horse goes. It's like when Bill Gates tried to explain the internet to Larry King and he kept laughing about radios, phones and TVs already doing all that. I guess some, or most, people just don't get excited about new things and have no imagination for what they will do

You're missing the fundamental point. There is no central company building some internal ecosystem. We already have airline miles that devalue whenever the company feels like it


----------



## sags

I don't know of a single company that prices their product or services in cryptocurrency.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I don't know of a single company that prices their product or services in cryptocurrency.


That's like saying "I don't know a single company that uses cars" when everyone used horses

Or "I don't know a single company that uses the internet" a few years before they all use the internet

Wise to delete the rest of your comment because it wasn't worth responding to. Email transfers? Really?


----------



## sags

You never used email transfers ?

It is seamless, low cost and instant.

I can use debit cards to pay instantly, credit cards to pay over time, emails to transfer money, or........I can pay in cash.

You propose instead of using those "archaic" methods......people sign up to an exchange, reveal all their personal information, use local currency to buy crypto, set up secure storage of the crypto, send crypto to someone who is also similarly set up to accept the crypto and can transfer it back into local currency so they can spend it.

That doesn't sound like much improvement to me.


----------



## sags

Comparisons to the development of the internet are silly. 

Governments around the world backed the development of the internet by building the global infrastructure needed.

Governments offer no similar committment or support for third party cryptocurrencies. In fact, they are focused on developing their own.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Governments around the world backed the development of the internet by building the global infrastructure needed.
> 
> Governments offer no similar committment or support for third party cryptocurrencies. In fact, they are focused on developing their own.


US is considering making Circle a Federal Bank which could make USDC their CBDC.

Everything you say basically just tells me you're uninformed


----------



## m3s

Now that Coinbase went public we get to see their quarterly financials

70% of Coinbase trading volume is institutional. Hedge funds, banks and 9000 other US corporations buying up crypto treasuries before it goes mainstream

All while the corporate media puts out FUD to scare the sags away


----------



## m3s




----------



## bgc_fan

m3s said:


> There is no central company building some internal ecosystem.


Basically, you're saying that we need cryptocurrencies so that you can sidestep financial infrastructure. Is that what you are saying?


----------



## m3s

bgc_fan said:


> Basically, you're saying that we need cryptocurrencies so that you can sidestep financial infrastructure. Is that what you are saying?


The financial infrastructure still exists.. and expands into cyberspace. I mean the post office still exists. We have the option to sidestep intermediaries with peer to peer transactions. Unless you want to start paying negative yields to store fiat like in Europe

Anyways this crowd appears way too old to learn new tricks


----------



## sags

Peer to peer is exactly what the governments don't want and will never approve.

It would be great for terrorists, criminals, and tax cheats, but governments have no intention of facilitating those transactions.

Even creating your own currency is illegal. I don't know where the crypto believers get all this baloney.

It reminds me of kids asking their parents about planting a "money tree" out back.

The billionaire pump and dumpers made big piles of money from the greater fools.

They are getting out now that the government regulators are watching them more closely.


----------



## m3s

You have nothing to add sags and it's not worth explaining the same things to you over and over and over again

Thankfully the government isn't all corrupt boomers collecting lobby "fees" and the few remaining will be in nursing homes soon enough


----------



## MrMatt

bgc_fan said:


> Basically, you're saying that we need cryptocurrencies so that you can sidestep financial infrastructure. Is that what you are saying?


That misses the benefits of blockchain/public ledgers.

Cryptocurrencies are simply an artifact of a system that is self regulated and fully controlled, without having to trust a third party authority. In fact, it's specifically designed so that there isn't a powerful third party who has more control than you.

Most are constructed so all participants are equal, which is the part that authoritarians (ie the establishment) don't like.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Dogecoin to the moon!!


----------



## MrBlackhill

They’re 14 and 9 years old—and making $32,000 a month thanks to Ethereum


They currently have 94 processors mining Ethereum, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies - and have had to move their rigs to a data center in downtown Dallas




fortune.com


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> They’re 14 and 9 years old—and making $32,000 a month thanks to Ethereum
> 
> 
> They currently have 94 processors mining Ethereum, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies - and have had to move their rigs to a data center in downtown Dallas
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fortune.com


Yeah, and Evans Toys makes millions.

These are outliers


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, and Evans Toys makes millions.
> 
> These are outliers


Yeah I know i just find this funny when "kids make millions".


----------



## m3s

Forbes - Bankers Issue ‘Seismic’ Warning

"The future is happening right now," the Deloitte report read. "Participation in the age of digital assets is not an option—it is inevitable."


----------



## sags

The Fed is scheduled to release a report on their own digital currency in September.

China is already testing their digital currency. It doesn't appear that the 2 largest economies in the world are thinking much about any other coins.

That is the part nobody in crypto wants to talk about. They just hope it all goes away.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> That is the part nobody in crypto wants to talk about. They just hope it all goes away.


Naw they talk about it all the time and consider it a good thing

USD coins are already by far the most traded by volume. Fed could just adopt the USDC or spend years developing their own. Either way the impact is nothing. Governments are great at releasing reports about things they want to do some day

Boomers are addicted to the debt spiral fiat printing and nothing will change until they all retire


----------



## wayward__son

impact of government issued digital currency is probably positive for crypto. All these new people getting comfortable with digital assets = massive potential new user base. some people will be happy to receive their digital CAD programmed to debase over time and simply watch it debase. many more will take the opportunity to venture out a step or two. that's my guess anyway.


----------



## sags

The fatal flaw in that theory is that crypto is priced in those same devalued USD.

For the value of the crypto to remain constant, it has to increase in value in USD. That would be currency inflation.

Currency inflation encourages people to retain the currency because it will have more purchasing power in the future than today.

Fiat currencies lose value slowly over time which encourages people to spend it in support of the economy.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The fatal flaw in that theory is that crypto is priced in those same devalued USD.


This is not fatal at all. 1 crypto unit of measurement equals 1 crypto unit of measurement. It's basic math sags

What is fatal is people using a randomly inflationary unit to measure property value. This is poor math sags. Imagine trying to do scientific measurements with a unit that randomly increased when it was convenient for someone else to change

A major issue in the upcoming election is the hot RE market. Loose monetary policies rewards those in debt with assets like real estate. This has caused people to lose sense of what RE is worth and just take insane levels of unsustainable debt and bid any price for RE. People have more FOMO for RE than anything because they need a home. Soon those who don't own a home won't be able to.

Money is hard to understand even on a money forum. Crypto is extremely important for the younger generation


----------



## Thal81

Right now regular money does everything better than crypto for my day-to-day financial needs. Even if transactions could be done as fast with crypto as with credit/debit cards, why would I bother with the extra conversion to fill up the crypto wallet? Also crypto can never fully replace real money because you need some form of physical currency (coins and bills). Digital only goes so far, we're in a physical world.

That's my little thesis on why cryptos are doomed to fail, regardless of how good the technology gets.


----------



## m3s

Thal81 said:


> Right now regular money does everything better than crypto for my day-to-day financial needs.


It's not really about currency yet it's about banking and DeFi

“The 8.8% we pay on stablecoins is the real value of the US dollar. It’s not 0.1%, which is what JP Morgan or Wells Fargo or other people tell you that you should be earning for your dollar,” CEO Alex Mashinsky told Blockworks in an interview, recounting his earlier days when you could earn 7% from a bank on a simple deposit. “Most people don’t believe that. Most people think that the real indication of where the market is is the cost of money.”

“We have $20 billion telling you that it’s 8.8%,” he continued.


----------



## m3s

Physical money doesn't have to go away for crypto to work either

The post office still does fine even though 99% of mail is done via email today


----------



## sags

If you want to chase high yields regardless of the default risk, you would be better off issuing payday loans for 500% a year.


----------



## m3s

DeFi uses over collateralized loans (the opposite of the 0% fractional reserve banking in the US)

There is risk in the code but it's not the same risk as people who live pay cheque to pay cheque or banks who are required to maintain 0% collateral in the US

How is 0% fractional reserve even a fraction anymore? How do you divide by 0 sags? Fiat is now infinite


----------



## MrMatt

Thal81 said:


> Right now regular money does everything better than crypto for my day-to-day financial needs. Even if transactions could be done as fast with crypto as with credit/debit cards, why would I bother with the extra conversion to fill up the crypto wallet? Also crypto can never fully replace real money because you need some form of physical currency (coins and bills). Digital only goes so far, we're in a physical world.
> 
> That's my little thesis on why cryptos are doomed to fail, regardless of how good the technology gets.


In the last month I've made the following cash transactions.
Bought ice cream at a tourist spot that didn't accept credit cards.
Sold some items at a garage sale, about 1/3 of my transactions were digital, 2/3 cash.
Bought some used books at a book store cash.

None of those were "needed", so I'd say that I need digital currency more than physical.

Putting money on a crypto wallet should be no different than putting money on your credit card. It is today, but it's not a major step IMO.

Finally, as I've said many times before.
The advantage of Cryptocurrencies & blockchains are the things that it does that current solutions don't or can't do.


----------



## MrBlackhill

I never use cash. I never have cash. I withdraw some cash only when I want to do a transaction without any tracking.


----------



## m3s

In the US it's all square now

The rare places that only took cash had to go contactless during COVID. My mechanic uses square. The coffee shop uses square. The icecream stand uses square. Square owns the 3rd most BTC for a public company behind Tesla and MicroStrategy and is integrating crypto. 

Heck even if I wanted marijuana it's legal now and probably sold with square. Once square, NFC etc integrate with crypto there is no need for Visa 4% merchant fees. Then it's only a small step to realize all you need is a smart phones and QR codes. China already did this with WeChat and soon the digital yuan.

El Salvador is launching BTC next month. You can still use cash if you want to. You can still use the post office if you want to

Good luck not using email or crypto


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> I never use cash. I never have cash. I withdraw some cash only when I want to do a transaction without any tracking.


I use plenty of cash. It's great. I bought some milk today with cash.

Simple paper bills, accepted everywhere, no batteries or fancy phones required. Why over complicate things?


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Simple paper bills, accepted everywhere, no batteries or fancy phones required. Why over complicate things?


You'd get a funny look here offering someone cash unless it's in a dark alley. All the places I frequent upgraded to NFC and highly encourage contactless payment now

Cash is filthy especially USDs. In Europe they had special plates to reduce germs 10 years ago but I've never seen those in America even after covid


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> You'd get a funny look here offering someone cash unless it's in a dark alley. All the places I frequent upgraded to NFC and highly encourage contactless payment now
> 
> Cash is filthy especially USDs. In Europe they had special plates to reduce germs 10 years ago but I've never seen those in America even after covid


Oh come on. I lived in the US for many years, and there was plenty of cash changing hands.

At my US office, we always bought our lunches at food carts with cash. I was at a coffee shop a couple days ago (Canada), again, paid with cash.


----------



## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> I use plenty of cash. It's great. I bought some milk today with cash.
> 
> Simple paper bills, accepted everywhere, no batteries or fancy phones required. Why over complicate things?


I hate cash. You always get plenty of pocket change and I don't know what to do with that pocket change. And if I want to get rid of the pocket change, it takes forever to count it to pay the exact amount to the cashier (forever = 5s to find the pocket change and 5s to count it and then 5s for the cashier to validate instead of 0.1s contactless). I pay with my phone, and my reward cards are on my phone so I don't even carry my big wallet anymore. Simple and easy.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Oh come on. I lived in the US for many years, and there was plenty of cash changing hands.
> 
> At my US office, we always bought our lunches at food carts with cash. I was at a coffee shop a couple days ago (Canada), again, paid with cash.


Yes that was the pre-COVID world james. They use square or another app for those things now

During COVID when they had to install plexiglass in front of the cashiers.. they also installed fancy contactless payment terminals (which we had in Canada for many years now) Older gas stations also upgraded so you could pay contactless at the pump (I pay for gas from my phone in the car)

I already preferred contactless payment and COVID just forced the US to install it everywhere


----------



## kcowan

For decades, poorer countries have operated without cash. When you remit money to the Philippines, they send the value by fax/email and the tx is complete. It is operated on trust. The sender and receiver settle when the amounts get large.

The unbanked people in Africa have used Scrip between phones to transact business for years. These people do not have bank accounts.

So the notion of cashless is quite old. What is new is that the value of bitcoin can vary more than these cash equivalents which was unheard of. It is also technically traceable yet there has been cases of big frauds because ultimately one has to trust the exchange organizations.


----------



## m3s

kcowan said:


> So the notion of cashless is quite old. What is new is that the value of bitcoin can vary more than these cash equivalents which was unheard of. It is also technically traceable yet there has been cases of big frauds because ultimately one has to trust the exchange organizations.


Ethereum has thousands of tokens and many of them are pegged to a "stable" currency known as stablecoins or even gold and stocks. Every company can have its own loyalty token with special discounts (sound familiar?) Ultimately everyone should be able to pay and receive whatever token or currency they want.. using decentralized exchanges and automated market makers

An exchange aggregator will find the best rate from the many automated market maker protocols. Typically 0.3% fee goes to the liquidity providers. Yields are insane for liquidity providers when volume is so high and liquidity is still low. Volume and liquidity will likely only increase meaning the fees will likely drop to 0.1% or lower because the aggregator will take the best rates.

There was recently the largest hack in crypto history but the hacker gave it all back because he knew there is no way to spend it. The oil pipeline ransom was recovered. Yes there are still exchanges registered in sketchy off shore countries but even they will freeze funds tied to a fraudulent address. A lot has changed since the silk road black market was shut down.

Cash is king for criminals nowadays


----------



## Jimmy

I think bitcoin companies are ok. But there appear to be fraudsters taking advantage of the area.

Interesting article in G&M about  a company supposedly trading on bitcoin volatility which turned out to be a ponzi scheme.

*Cryptocurrency promoter pleads guilty in $2-billion fraud*


SAN DIEGO 
The Associated Press 


A Los Angeles man pleaded guilty Wednesday to participating in what prosecutors called a “textbook Ponzi scheme” that defrauded cryptocurrency investors worldwide of more than $2-billion. 
Prosecutors said Glenn Arcaro, 44, sat atop the North American branch of the pyramid investment scheme BitConnect, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported.

Arcaro, who pleaded guilty in U.S. District Court to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, admitted in his plea agreement to earning “no less than $24-million from the BitConnect fraud conspiracy,” the newspaper said. As part of his plea, Arcaro must pay back that money to investors. He faces up to 20 years in prison when he is sentenced Nov. 15.

“The BitConnect scheme is believed to be the largest cryptocurrency fraud ever charged criminally,” the U.S. Attorney’s Office said in a statement. 
Arcaro’s plea came the same day that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil complaint against BitConnect, the Union-Tribune said.

According to prosecutors, Arcaro and his co-conspirators claimed that BitConnect used a proprietary technology that was able to generate huge profits by using investors’ money to trade on the volatility of cryptocurrency exchange markets.

“In truth, BitConnect operated a textbook Ponzi scheme by paying earlier BitConnect investors with money from later investors,” prosecutors said.


----------



## m3s

Jimmy said:


> But there appear to be fraudsters taking advantage of the area.


More than appear - there's no question

BitConnect is just one of many ICO scams. People who feel like they "missed out" on better projects are rushing into scams with no research. Hex looks like the new pyramid scheme and it's ironically based on CDs hmm

"Rug pulls" and "giveaway scams" are also common



Jimmy said:


> In truth, BitConnect operated a textbook Ponzi scheme by paying earlier BitConnect investors with money from later investors


Paying earlier investors with money from later investors? Boomers get more from social security than they contributed. SEC should look into that textbook Ponzi scheme next?

By this definition, the western government could be called a Ponzi scheme that relies on the future generations to pay the older generation debt

Scams are everywhere not just crypto


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> BitConnect is just one of many ICO scams


I think BitConnect was the one with the amazing video, the con man Carlos






Someone even asked about BitConnect on this forum back in 2018, to which the CMF responses were unanimous: this is a bad idea, a fraud.









Bit-Connect.....Good....or...Bad?


I am thinking of fronting up $1000.00 into the Bitconnect cyber currency frenzy. Doing my due dillegence on the Internet i can find 20 authors that claim it is a Ponnzi scheme and then another 20 authors who think it is just great and worthwhile. So...who is right...would appreciate your input...




www.canadianmoneyforum.com


----------



## MrBlackhill

Ad on a Montreal bus ("Buying and selling Bitcoin").


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Ad on a Montreal bus ("Buying and selling Bitcoin").


FTX has Tom Brady and Steph Curry
Voyager sponsors a NASCAR, Rob Gronkowski, Victor Oladipo
Crypto.com sponsors Montreal Canadiens, UFC, F1, IIHF and some soccer leagues

Lots of scams going around


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> Lots of scams going around


Posted it here but it's just that I noticed how crypto are truly increasing their presence (through ads, for instance).

I don't have an opinion though whether it is good or bad.


----------



## kcowan

Sample bitcoin promo
It seems that Quora has more than any other newsletter.


----------



## Spudd

Someone put out a fake press release that Walmart would start accepting Litecoin, which caused its price to rise 20%. Bet that was profitable for them.









Litecoin price jumped 20 percent after hoax linked the cryptocurrency to Walmart


Walmart has confirmed the news release was fake.




www.theverge.com


----------



## sags

A good video that explains pretty well why crypto is a ponzi scheme type of scam.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> A good video that explains pretty well why crypto is a ponzi scheme type of scam.


You could say the stock market is a ponzi scheme too.

I got halfway through before my brain shut off.
It's the same old tired arguments.

Yes most people are speculating, yes for many people it is a ponzi scheme.

However that doesn't mean there isn't real value in there.
Just like in Tulip bulb mania, or the stock market, if you strip away all the scheming, there is something of value left.


----------



## pwm

It's a tulip mania bubble, except that at least tulips had some actual value.


----------



## MrMatt

pwm said:


> It's a tulip mania bubble, except that at least tulips had some actual value.


And crypto/blockchain have some actual value too.

Like Tulips, unless you're an end user it's hard to determine the value.


----------



## m3s

pwm said:


> It's a tulip mania bubble, except that at least tulips had some actual value.


Ok boomer

The US Senate just spent all morning talking about crypto. Even though they are boomers even they seem to get it more than the typical Canadian boomer. Regulation and clarity is overdue for centralized exchanges. If done right it will open the floodgates and make a lot of money for the bankrupt western governments. For example a withholding tax on the yields instead of banning them seems like a no brainer to me..

Canadians are missing out on so many opportunities to develop a digital economy and collect revenue here.. yet they all just want to talk about bond yields


----------



## MrMatt

pwm said:


> It's a tulip mania bubble, except that at least tulips had some actual value.


Your statement suggests you don't understand the value of blockchain/crypto technologies. 
As you use an encrypted protocol to make the post.


----------



## sags

There is already cloud computing for data storage, peer to peer digital financial transactions, and legal online contracts.

What great need does bitcoin or blockchains solve ?

As to blockchain being beneficial as a "public ledger"......when did business start wanting to reveal their business to the public and competitors ?

Does Walmart want to tell Canadian Tire all their business ? Do they want to reveal how much they pay suppliers for products ? Do they want to reveal their profit margins or tax bills ? Do people want their legal contracts on a public ledger ? Would people want all their purchases on a public ledger ? Their health information ? Criminal records ? It sounds an awful lot like a "big brother" concept.

At a time when people are growing more concerned about their personal information and security, blockchains are going in the opposite direction.

Bitcoins, dogecoins, blockchains.......have no useful purpose to justify their extensive waste of energy.


----------



## ian

Where we live it is affinity fraud. People buy into schemes because their friends are associates are. Often target people in their mid 50's and up who may have assets like homes or RSP's that can be leveraged. Target is someone who has lost money in the market, pulled out, not re-entered, and now realizes their loss. Promised incredibly high returns while their capital investment is guaranteed.
Real estate and currency trading are among the favorites. Sad to see people loose everything to con artists but the reality is Barnum was right. There is a sucker born every minute.

My spouse had a cousin buy a load of Iraqi dinars while that scam was alive in western Canada. Definitely an affinity scam. People in her church were jumping into it. The actually thought that buying 5K worth of worthless dinars would yield $500K because they were such wonderful Christians. Go figure. 

Before buying the only verification was checking with other church friends or relatives who fell for the same gag. They did not even bother to check the FX market to see whether it was even possible to sell/dispose of them. So they are stuck with boxes of worthless wall coverings. One google search at the time on this issue would have netted them the Forbes article that outlined the entire scam. I guess if one scam does not get them, another will be soon be coming around the corner to catch them out. 

Your cannot fix stupid.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> There is already cloud computing for data storage, peer to peer digital financial transactions, and legal online contracts.


Care to share what peer to peer digital financial transaciton system you use to send a few cents to someone?



> What great need does bitcoin or blockchains solve ?


Programmable contracts.



> As to blockchain being beneficial as a "public ledger"......when did business start wanting to reveal their business to the public and competitors ?


If that's a feature you want, you can use it. If it is not, don't use it.
Businesses are already required to publicly publish their financials.



> Does Walmart want to tell Canadian Tire all their business ? Do they want to reveal how much they pay suppliers for products ? Do they want to reveal their profit margins or tax bills ? Do people want their legal contracts on a public ledger ? Would people want all their purchases on a public ledger ? Their health information ? Criminal records ? It sounds an awful lot like a "big brother" concept.


No, and they shouldn't use a public ledger for those things, just like you don't put them on a billboard outside your home.



> At a time when people are growing more concerned about their personal information and security, blockchains are going in the opposite direction.


That's simply wrong.
If you want privacy, use a privacy chain. Unlike cash, they don't even have serial numbers to trace.



> Bitcoins, dogecoins, blockchains.......have no useful purpose to justify their extensive waste of energy.


Sure they do, and what "extensive waste of energy".
Some use lots of energy, and some do not.

You are repeating the same wrong drawingbacks.

lets take a simple one.
I can make an untracable private digital transaction with cryptocurrencies.
I can't do that with any other technology.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> At a time when people are growing more concerned about their personal information and security, blockchains are going in the opposite direction.


Here is your argument.
The mail system is bad, when I use a postcard, people can read my information.
Blockchain is bad, when I use a publicly viewable ledger, people can read my information.

But with mail, I can put it in an envelope, then it is secret. 
But with Blockchain, I can put it in a shielded transaction, then it is secret.


----------



## m3s

sags repeats the most basic complaints about everything year after year and never seems to learn anything. pointless rehash after rehash so I won't even bother

I can't recall any positive contribution especially about anything financial?


----------



## KaeJS

I'm not a boomer but I still don't understand why anyone would ever want to own crypto unless you're purchasing one of those cryptos that pays a yield. And even then... It's gotta end at some point.

Sure, there are some applications for it. It is not "useless", but I still can't understand why a coin or value needs to be associated with it.

How Bitcoin is the biggest just because it was the "first of it's kind" is kind of beyond me.

I don't hold any crypto. But I have friends that have tons. They tell me I'm an idiot. Some even have hundreds of thousands in it.

Good luck to them, I guess.
I just don't get it.


----------



## m3s

KaeJS said:


> Sure, there are some applications for it. It is not "useless", but I still can't understand why a coin or value needs to be associated with it.


The easiest one to explain is paying for decentralized immutable computations. Most tokens are built on ethereum and require ETH gas fee for each transaction to pay for the nodes processing/securing the network. It's a finite commodity that also earns yield from those fees



KaeJS said:


> How Bitcoin is the biggest just because it was the "first of it's kind" is kind of beyond me.


The network effect makes it the most secure - it requires the most resources to attack. The most populous and powerful authoritarian government already tried to shut it down. It is the most secure store of value with the benefit that you can take it anywhere. Imagine trying to protect wealth in Lebanon, Afghanistan, Venezuela etc

Anything that could shut down bitcoin would also shut down the current banking system. In that case we go back to physical gold (gold in some warehouse does you no good either) If treasuries allocate even 5% of their portfolio to BTC it is extremely undervalued



KaeJS said:


> I don't hold any crypto. But I have friends that have tons. They tell me I'm an idiot. Some even have hundreds of thousands in it.
> 
> Good luck to them, I guess.
> I just don't get it.


Thank you, I guess.

I don't believe it's the be all end all but when you see the biggest financial institutions adopting it while the government is printing fiat to pay for the endless debt spiral.. I wouldn't waste my time trying to explain it if I didn't want to help you. But I'm afraid if you still don't get it at this stage or even try to listen there's no use


----------



## sags

m3s said:


> sags repeats the most basic complaints about everything year after year and never seems to learn anything. pointless rehash after rehash so I won't even bother
> 
> I can't recall any positive contribution especially about anything financial?


Yea, I am a financial dummy so don't listen to me.

Don't listen to Warren Buffet either.......because he is a dummy too. And that Charlie Munger fella.......a dummy.

And everyone else who points out the flaws in the cryto concept.......all dummies.

And the biggest dummies of all.......the banks, the bond dealers, and the government regulators.

Good thing for you that you are smarter than all those dummies.


----------



## sags

_It took me from 7 to 8 figures in the last year after 10 years to save 7. I don't believe it's the be all end all but when you see the biggest financial institutions adopting it while the government is printing fiat to pay for the endless debt spiral.. I wouldn't waste my time trying to explain it if I didn't want to help you_

That would explain why you are pumping it, but I seriously doubt you have earned a wealth of over 10 million dollars from it.


----------



## KaeJS

m3s said:


> Thank you, I guess.
> 
> It took me from 7 to 8 figures in the last year after 10 years to save 7. I don't believe it's the be all end all but when you see the biggest financial institutions adopting it while the government is printing fiat to pay for the endless debt spiral.. I wouldn't waste my time trying to explain it if I didn't want to help you
> 
> But I'm afraid if you still don't get it at this stage or even try to listen there's no use


Hold on a second...

You are worth 8 figures?

As in, at least 10 million dollars?


----------



## sags

Wouldn't it be a paradox to have $10 million in crypto wealth but be unwilling to convert it to fiat because you believe fiat is devolving into a worthless asset ?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Wouldn't it be a paradox to have $10 million in crypto wealth but be unwilling to convert it to fiat because you believe fiat is devolving into a worthless asset ?


I'm not unwilling at all. I regularly rebalance up to 20% USDC which earns good yield itself. Crypto regularly crashes 20-30% so I always keep powder ready for opportunities

I only put 6 figures into crypto but it is not uncommon to get 10-100x in crypto. I've put 7 figures into stocks so 6 figures was actually 5% to play with higher risk/reward

I'd rather have more in stocks but the opportunities just aren't there and honestly crypto turns out to be much more open and transparent once you sort the chaff


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> Wouldn't it be a paradox to have $10 million in crypto wealth but be unwilling to convert it to fiat because you believe fiat is devolving into a worthless asset ?


That's not a matter of belief -- it's a matter of fact.

It used to be that you could put your fiat into a savings account or GIC and keep up with inflation, or even come out ahead if you shopped around for good rates. Now you are guaranteed to lose to inflation. Many people are losing 3% or more on their savings.

If you want any hope of not losing money you have to invest in something. Take your pick, all assets including stocks and real estate are at nosebleed levels.

We live in a country where house prices doubling in five years is considered normal and expected. Being a millionaire nowadays doesn't even mean you're well-off. It just means you're not poor...yet.


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> I'm not a boomer but I still don't understand why anyone would ever want to own crypto unless you're purchasing one of those cryptos that pays a yield. And even then... It's gotta end at some point.
> 
> Sure, there are some applications for it. It is not "useless", but I still can't understand why a coin or value needs to be associated with it.
> 
> How Bitcoin is the biggest just because it was the "first of it's kind" is kind of beyond me.
> 
> I don't hold any crypto. But I have friends that have tons. They tell me I'm an idiot. Some even have hundreds of thousands in it.
> 
> Good luck to them, I guess.
> I just don't get it.


Some Cryptocoins have no real value, because they have no real functionality (today)
The only real value is that other people want them too. 
In that case mindshare is important, bitcoin is the biggest and has the biggest mindshare, so it has the most "value".

Similar for other leading coins where their current price might not reflect the actual economic value of what the platform can accomplish today (or in the likely future).

If you were to try and sell bitcoin to a random person, they might be interested, dogecoin, less interested but might know what it is. Cardano, they likely have no idea what you're talking about, despite it being one of the more interesting projects.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> And the biggest dummies of all.......the banks, the bond dealers, and the government regulators.
> 
> Good thing for you that you are smarter than all those dummies.


Banks now have 0% fractional reserves, bonds are manipulated by the federal reserve (that happens to neither be federal nor a reserve) and government geniuses spent trillions of debt equipping and training terrorists for the last 20 years

Warren Buffet was a genius in his time. He's nothing special for the past few decades. I'm not smarter than Buffet or Cathie Wood but I learn a lot from both. The world is always changing.. fear of change makes people focus on the past


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Warren Buffet was a genius in his time. He's nothing special for the past few decades.


He's done quite well over the past few decades.
Personally I think BRK is a better investment than the S&P 500


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> He's done quite well over the past few decades.


Sadly that's not how he will be remembered by future generations. They put these portraits and memes to memorialize him and his cohort in the metaverse.

Old men should just enjoy their success instead of complaining about everything they don't understand and yelling at clouds


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Sadly that's not how he will be remembered by future generations. They put these portraits and memes to memorialize him and his cohort in the metaverse.
> 
> Old men should just enjoy their success instead of complaining about everything they don't understand and yelling at clouds


I honestly don't know what you're talking about.

My grade school kids seem all about "memes", but since my age is in double digits, rather than nonsensical, potentially humourous quips, I'll look at the actual numeric performance of my investments.


BRK has outperformed the broader market for decades, and I expect they'll continue to do so.
Remember, this isn't simply one off luck, it's literally hundreds of excellent investment choices over decades.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> BRK has outperformed the broader market for decades, and I expect they'll continue to do so.


One of their largest holdings is still KO. Just because sugar water was a good investment 30 years ago doesn't mean it is anything special today. Boring.

If Buffet was young and starting from scratch he would probably be in crypto as well. At his age he has staff managing BRK and they still just hold KO. Impressive!.. Beating the broader market is a bare minimum or else what's the point of paying them

Meanwhile I 2x a gamble on AVAX this month while it farms DeFi tokens that 10x. Up 20% today. Crypto isn't exactly 1 lucky trade I'd say it takes economic and technical understanding


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> BRK has outperformed the broader market for decades, and I expect they'll continue to do so.


Not any more, it seems. Since 2003 (that's now 18 years) BRK.B is just performing on par with the S&P 500.

That's still awfully good, but 18 years without showing alpha is pretty notable. And trailing 15 year performance is also identical to the S&P 500.

Question extended to @MrBlackhill and @Jimmy as well. What happened to Buffett's skill? Why no alpha over 15 or 18 years?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Not any more, it seems. Since 2003 (that's now 18 years) BRK.B is just performing on par with the S&P 500.
> 
> That's still awfully good, but 18 years without showing alpha is pretty notable. And trailing 15 year performance is also identical to the S&P 500.
> 
> Question extended to @MrBlackhill and @Jimmy as well. What happened to Buffett's skill? Why no alpha over 15 or 18 years?


BRK.A Jan 1 2003 $67 600, 15 Sept 2021 - $419 785 - 620% gain
S&P 500 Jan 1 2003 - 895.84, 15 sept - 4480.70 = 500% gain

Unfortunately seems like googlefinance doesn't like spitting out historical data, or I'd automate it, so I just used values I could find.

@james4beach I'd suggest that the small outperformance of an addition 120% over 18 years is quite decent.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> BRK.A Jan 1 2003 $67 600, 15 Sept 2021 - $419 785 - 620% gain
> S&P 500 Jan 1 2003 - 895.84, 15 sept - 4480.70 = 500% gain
> 
> Unfortunately seems like googlefinance doesn't like spitting out historical data, or I'd automate it, so I just used values I could find.
> 
> @james4beach I'd suggest that the small outperformance of an addition 120% over 18 years is quite decent.


You forgot dividends in the total return.












james4beach said:


> Question extended to @MrBlackhill and @Jimmy as well. What happened to Buffett's skill? Why no alpha over 15 or 18 years?


BRK is too big, he's a value investor and best value is found in small caps. Value in large cap barely generates alpha. I'm not sure I understand his huge position in AAPL though. Growth cycle is about to end.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> You forgot dividends in the total return.
> 
> 
> BRK is too big, he's a value investor and best value is found in small caps. Value in large cap barely generates alpha. I'm not sure I understand his huge position in AAPL though. Growth cycle is about to end.


Good point, but a lot of the outperformance was in the last year or so.


----------



## m3s

Wow so BRK is 40% APPL from a guy who overtly doesn't get tech and 60% might as well be a blue chip ETF.

Just some no name staffers riding on his coat tails and brand. Buffet is barely conscious not even worth talking about anymore

Now here's a recent video with great insight from Cathie Wood you all ignored again to talk about an irrelevant old man


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Wow so BRK is 40% APPL from a guy who overtly doesn't get tech and 60% might as well be a blue chip ETF.
> 
> Just some no name staffers riding on his coat tails and brand. Buffet is barely conscious not even worth talking about anymore
> 
> Now here's a recent video with great insight from Cathie Wood you all ignored again to talk about an irrelevant old man


Uhh, I thought BRK had just over $100B in Apple stock.
Remember they are much more than a stock portfolio.

Lots of the fully owned subsiduaries are quite valuable.

Also Warren hasn't done details for a while, he has quite a number of exceptionally good managers in his succession plan.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Also Warren hasn't done details for a while, he has quite a number of exceptionally good managers in his succession plan.


So 360,000 employees $56B expenses to pontificate on how much APPL stock to buy even though Warren says he doesn't get tech stocks


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> So 360,000 employees $56B expenses to pontificate on how much APPL stock to buy even though Warren says he doesn't get tech stocks


Huh?
Buffet stated he didn't get tech stocks for a while, but he did explain why he bought apple.
These two statements didn't happen at the same time.


----------



## sags

BRK's % of ownership in APPL haa increased because APPL has aggressively been buying back their own shares.

The increase didn't cost BRK a dime.

BRK returned more or less the same as the index, but is also sitting on $120 billion in cash. How does that get valued ?

BRK is a cash generating machine, and the cash comes from a wide array of very stable sources.

Buffet is waiting for the next recession, which he says won't be a V shaped recession and companies will be cash starved as lending dries up.

He will be there, as he was in the past, willing to offer companies loans............for a handsome profit of course.


----------



## MrBlackhill

sags said:


> BRK returned more or less the same as the index, but is also sitting on $120 billion in cash. How does that get valued ?


IMHO it gets valued as a waste of money which is not invested (cash drag) and currently losing to inflation or maybe there's a strong belief of another crash but I doubt. I expect a correction, but certainly not a crash, not in the next 1 year.


----------



## sags

Buffet made out like a bandit during the last Recession, offering cash to companies who couldn't borrow from banks who had tightened lending standards.

He currently views companies as overpriced after a long bull run, and a lot of financial people agree with him.

But unlike Buffet, those people have to promote something to earn their paycheque and you will never hear them advise clients to sell and hold cash.

They go on CNBC and talk about "cycling into and out of this and that"......basically move the money around so you look busy and smart and collect fees.


----------



## m3s

There's a growing concern that we are 10 years overdue for a liquidity crisis and/or hyperinflation. It gestates as the old guard print money to feed expensive addictions for the next gen to pay for

Holding cash is smart except when you're getting punished by this money printing policy. The federal reserve has ultimate shadow power to print infinite money and the youth are taught nothing of it

Warren Buffet buys companies with strong pricing power and low input costs because they are best sheltered from this. It's hard to be smart though when the fed is propping up irresponsible decisions


----------



## sags

Buffett is brilliant. He knows how to decipher a corporate balance sheet and recognize the bottom line, like few others can.

He sees opportunities that others miss in the fog of corporate financial wizardry. He sees where the landmines are hidden.

When he was considering buying See's Candies that made chocolates and candy, he observed they raised prices tentatively just before the biggest sales season of the year at Christmas. The company was reluctant to raise prices very much because it might cost them seasonal sales.

So Buffet bought the company and immediately changed to raising prices after January 1st, after the current season sales period and a year before the next.

By the next Christmas season people were already used to the price increases and it didn't affect their biggest sales period at all.

If I recall, that simple change earned the company 30% more profit on their sales. He still holds the company.

It is also noteworthy that people who have bet against Buffet in the past lost the bets.



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sees-candies-record-quarter-170456133.html


----------



## sags

Not recent.......but look at these eyepopping numbers from 1965 to 2007 on the return of BRK to shareholders from the 2007 shareholder letter.

Has Buffett lost his magic mojo ? I don't know but I doubt it. One of these days he might even announce paying a dividend and watch the stock soar then.



https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Not recent.......but look at these eyepopping numbers from 1965 to 2007 on the return of BRK to shareholders from the 2007 shareholder letter.


Buffet was a genius of his time (1965-2007) there is no dispute

Unfortunately we all age and with that comes a decline in cognitive functions for us all

Maybe he should invest in gene editing technology like CRSPR


----------



## sags

The proposition that Buffett doesn't understand tech is humorous.

In fact, BRK owns 65 companies outright that depend heavily on data systems and the latest technology. BRK is always spending to upgrade systems.

Companies like Geico Insurance, Duracell, Dairy Queen, Berkshire Diamonds, General Re......require a lot of very high level technology.

I think Buffett enjoys perpetuating the myth. It suits his sweet old grandpa image. I don't even own a computer he says.......yea, okay.









What Companies Does Warren Buffett Own?


Warren Buffett Owns Many Companies Via The Corporation Berkshire Hathaway. He Owns Both Stocks & Entire Companies Such as Dairy Queen & GEICO.




www.liberatedstocktrader.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The proposition that Buffett doesn't understand tech is humorous.
> 
> In fact, BRK owns 65 companies outright that depend heavily on data systems and the latest technology. BRK is always spending to upgrade systems.
> 
> Companies like Geico Insurance, Duracell, Dairy Queen, Berkshire Diamonds, General Re.......
> 
> I think Buffett enjoys perpetuating the myth. It suits his sweet old grandpa image.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What Companies Does Warren Buffett Own?
> 
> 
> Warren Buffett Owns Many Companies Via The Corporation Berkshire Hathaway. He Owns Both Stocks & Entire Companies Such as Dairy Queen & GEICO.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.liberatedstocktrader.com


They're not tech companies though, they just use technology.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The proposition that Buffett doesn't understand tech is humorous.


Buffet says so himself sags


----------



## bgc_fan

I think people should meet Mr. Goxx. He has outperformed the S&P 500 and Buffet through trading cryptocurrencies since June.

Should I mention that he's a hamster?









A Crypto-Trading Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500


A hamster named Mr. Goxx enters one of two tunnels in the his cage, which determines whether he will buy or sell. As of Friday, his portfolio is up nearly 20%, according to his Twitter account.




www.npr.org


----------



## agent99

I still can't understand crypto currencies like Bitcoin. I am sure a lot of money has been made on them by demand causing the coin price to go up. But what is their actual worth.

It needs to be tied to something real. If I sell someone my house for Xthousand Bitcoins I want to be sure to be able to convert those Bitcoins into Ythousand C$, because that is the currency houses are normally sold in. The Bitcoins I get could change in value up or down like a yoyo while the sell-buys are being transacted.

We worry about owning stocks or ETFs that are US$ dominated. We even buy hedged funds instead. So why would we even think about Bitcoins? Just because in recent years some foolhardy people have driven the price up? How much would my US$1.00 2011 Bitcoin be worth today? Apparently $50,000. That is insane.


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> It needs to be tied to something real. If I sell someone my house for Xthousand Bitcoins I want to be sure to be able to convert those Bitcoins into Ythousand C$, because that is the currency houses are normally sold in. The Bitcoins I get could change in value up or down like a yoyo while the sell-buys are being transacted.


What if I told you the $C needs to be tied to something real.. because it's not. What if I told you houses increase in value in line with the inflation of $C. Your unit of measurement is flawed because it is a unit that arbitrarily increases at a whim. Basically you don't understand what money is and bitcoin uncovers this ignorance



agent99 said:


> We worry about owning stocks or ETFs that are US$ dominated. We even buy hedged funds instead. So why would we even think about Bitcoins? Just because in recent years some foolhardy people have driven the price up? How much would my US$1.00 2011 Bitcoin be worth today? Apparently $50,000. That is insane.


I don't worry about owning $US investments. In fact I seek out investments in other currencies. I don't buy hedged funds. Those are for people who don't understand the world is much bigger than their local fiat. Every fiat currency in history has been subject to inflation. Look at Venezuela, Lebanon and Turkey. That is insane


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> What if I told you the $C needs to be tied to something real.. because it's not.


The CAD is backed by tons of real stuff. The Canadian economy is behind it, and the ability of the government to raise tax revenue. That means that all collective wealth in the nation, including untapped natural resources (lumber, oil, minerals, metals) gives the CAD legitimacy and fundamental value.



agent99 said:


> I still can't understand crypto currencies like Bitcoin. I am sure a lot of money has been made on them by demand causing the coin price to go up.


There are tons of speculative things people make a lot of money on. There are people who've made fortunes trading various commodities and penny stocks too.


----------



## m3s

From the draft legislature and discussions happening in the US it looks like-

5 x BTC ETFs to be approved in US in late October (Canada already has 3)
BTC to be regulated and treated as a commodity in the US
This seems pretty likely way to balance out the follow on attacks on crypto lending platforms

ETH to be treated as a commodity like BTC
This is already in the draft legislature which surprised me
Regulatory clarity would be huge for ETH but it will probably be held up by some 87 year old senator or the wicked witch Warren again

All lending platforms like Celsius, BlockFi, Nexo will be tied up in legislature for a long time and "centralized" cryptos will be investigated
Based on 100-year old laws and US precedents these are illegal and there is a lot of wild west and scams going on
I don't see the US writing new laws to fix this even though they should - need to protect banks and their profits

Either way the US is well aware they can't just ban BTC and DeFi like China now


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> 5 x BTC ETFs to be approved in US in late October (Canada already has 3)


Doesn't Canada have like 10 crypto coin ETFs?


----------



## m3s

Canada has 3 BTC ETFs and the USA has 5 BTC ETFs pending approval in Oct

The others in Canada I believe are all ETH. Cathie Wood is using the Canadian ETFs


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> The CAD is backed by tons of real stuff. The Canadian economy is behind it, and the ability of the government to raise tax revenue. That means that all collective wealth in the nation, including untapped natural resources (lumber, oil, minerals, metals) gives the CAD legitimacy and fundamental value.


Justin Trudeau said he doesn't think about monetary policy. If CAD is backed by untapped resources then why isn't Alberta filthy rich

BTC is backed by a mathematical monetary policy. It can't be confiscated when Canada's "monetary policy" of raining money fails

If CAD is backed by revenue then what makes the USD valuable when it is backed by a country in a debt crisis


----------



## agent99

m3s said:


> What if I told you the $C needs to be tied to something real.. because it's not. What if I told you houses increase in value in line with the inflation of $C. Your unit of measurement is flawed because it is a unit that arbitrarily increases at a whim. Basically you don't understand what money is and bitcoin uncovers this ignorance


With due respect m3S, your post displays either your own ignorance or perhaps just indicates the way you would like things to be. The buying power of the C$ does not change by 20% over 2 weeks as Bitcoin did recently (or 4900% over 10 years). 

I can't think of a more speculative "investment" than buying Bitcoins or any other crypto currency. For your own sake, I hope you are not too heavily into it.


----------



## agent99

Saw this on this website:

*



4. Are cryptocurrencies a good investment?

Click to expand...

*


> Cryptocurrencies may go up in value, but many investors see them as mere speculations, not real investments. The reason? Just like real currencies, cryptocurrencies generate no cash flow, so for you to profit, someone has to pay more for the currency than you did.
> *That’s what’s called “the greater fool” theory of investment.* Contrast that to a well-managed business, which increases its value over time by growing the profitability and cash flow of the operation.
> 
> 
> 
> “For those who see cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin as the currency of the future, it should be noted that *a currency needs stability.*”
> 
> 
> 
> Some notable voices in the investment community have advised would-be investors to steer clear of them. Of particular note, legendary investor Warren Buffett compared Bitcoin to paper checks: “It's a very effective way of transmitting money and you can do it anonymously and all that. A check is a way of transmitting money too. Are checks worth a whole lot of money? Just because they can transmit money?"
> » Learn more: Is Bitcoin safe?
> For those who see cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin as the currency of the future, it should be noted that a currency needs stability so that merchants and consumers can determine what a fair price is for goods. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been anything but stable through much of their history. For example, while *Bitcoin traded at close to $20,000 in December 2017, its value then dropped to as low as about $3,200 a year later.* By December 2020, it was trading at record levels again.
> This price volatility creates a conundrum. If bitcoins might be worth a lot more in the future, people are less likely to spend and circulate them today, making them less viable as a currency. Why spend a bitcoin when it could be worth three times the value next year?
Click to expand...

Another tidbit from Investopedia on bubbles:


> Although every bubble is different, one common element in most bubbles is the willingness of participants to suspend disbelief and to steadfastly ignore the increasing number of cautionary signs. Another is that the bigger the bubble, the greater the damage it inflicts when it bursts. And perhaps most important is that the five biggest historic bubbles, along with others along the way, hold valuable lessons that should be heeded by all investors.


----------



## m3s

@agent99 ethereum has generated 8 figures in revenue this year in the form of transaction fees paid to the nodes to process the network. I'm earning revenue from the gamblers

Yes there should be a blow off top due to all the hype as there always is. There should also be a blow off top in real estate and many other markets imo

I've already taken out far more than I ever put in. I can see why it appears like a "greater fool" investment and in the past I would agree with you. However the same people missed out on amazon, google etc because they didn't understand the network effect and disruptive scale of new technology

The sad part is that CAD does change in value but you perceive 1 CAD as 1 CAD. In reality it declines in purchasing power every year.

I really need to stop wasting my time on here but it is an interesting phenomenon. It is so hard for people to understand even when they have the knowledge


----------



## m3s

Cardano just started to announce partnerships with US companies for digital ID, loyalty programs, supply chain management, fraud protection, payments rails and gaming

If you still don't get it at this point I need to stop trying to help you. I truly hope your grandchildren buy some for themselves


----------



## agent99




----------



## agent99

m3s said:


> @agent99
> The sad part is that CAD does change in value but *you* perceive 1 CAD as 1 CAD. In reality it declines in purchasing power every year.
> 
> I really need to stop wasting my time on here


It is sad that *you* would post that first sentence. You don't know me nor do you know what I perceive other than that I perceive buying cryptocurrency is a mugs game.

Second sentence is a good idea!


----------



## m3s

Justin "forgive me if I don't think about monetary policy" Trudeau











How is everything a greater fool investment and yet the dollar is stable hah


----------



## sags

_The sad part is that CAD does change in value but you perceive 1 CAD as 1 CAD. In reality it declines in purchasing power every year. _

Yes......that is the whole point. If the currency becomes more valuable in the future, people would HODL it and the economy would suffer.


----------



## MrBlackhill

You shouldn't stop wasting your time. I like this debate from both standpoint.



sags said:


> Yes......that is the whole point. If the currency becomes more valuable in the future, people would HODL it and the economy would suffer.


That's interesting. That's right, why would I buy a car for 1 Bitcoin this year when I could buy two cars for 1 Bitcoin if I wait one year?

Therefore Bitcoin has to stabilize. But when Bitcoin will try to stabilize, all the people who hold it as an investment instead of holding it as a currency will start selling their Bitcoin (because they aren't an investment anymore), which would make it crash hard.

So there's still a lot of volatility ahead of us...

But anyways it will be forced to stabilize at some point because obviously a financial asset cannot growth at that pace forever, otherwise Bitcoin would be valued $1Q in just a few years, which makes no sense.

Not?


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> The sad part is that CAD does change in value but you perceive 1 CAD as 1 CAD. In reality it declines in purchasing power every year.


The sad part is that you think perceiving 1 CAD as 1 CAD is a problem shows your issue.

1 CAD is 1 CAD, just as 1 Doge is 1 Doge. What you fail to understand is that our concepts of what 1 CAD is are not the same.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> That's interesting. That's right, why would I buy a car for 1 Bitcoin this year when I could buy two cars for 1 Bitcoin if I wait one year?


Soo then why would you buy a car this year when you can buy bitcoin?

The general consensus seems to be that it is too volatile or risky. Then this forum will debate which 1% savings promo or GIC rate to chase when CAD has inflation.

I know I spent money in the past because saving seemed futile at those rates.



MrBlackhill said:


> Therefore Bitcoin has to stabilize. But when Bitcoin will try to stabilize, all the people who hold it as an investment instead of holding it as a currency will start selling their Bitcoin (because they aren't an investment anymore), which would make it crash hard.


Fiat was backed by the gold standard until 1971. Gold seems relatively stable but people still hold it and people still buy things even though they should save and invest.

We are just living in a modern day gold rush. Bitcoin is probably much easier to acquire than it will be in the future. There are more people than bitcoins

Not everybody went west during the gold rush. Some stayed home because it was safe and stable



MrBlackhill said:


> So there's still a lot of volatility ahead of us...
> 
> But anyways it will be forced to stabilize at some point because obviously a financial asset cannot growth at that pace forever, otherwise Bitcoin would be valued $1Q in just a few years, which makes no sense.


It's called an S curve and it happens with mass adoption

We are still at the bottom of the curve because far less than 10% have adopted bitcoin. As adoptions picks up the price increases with demand (supply is locked) until it levels off at about 90% adoption

I lived with Euro and USD and I can tell you currencies are not as stable as people think. You just don't see it in your CAD world because retailers absorb the volatility for you. The price of imported cars would be all over the place year to year otherwise

Imagine a global standard unit of denomination with a mathematical rate if issuance. It makes too much sense


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> currencies are not as stable as people think


I agree. From 2012 to end of 2015, the best "investment" a Canadian could do with his CAD wasn't to buy his Canadian TSX (XIU.TO), but to buy USD because in 2012 the USD was worth CAD $1 while at the end of 2015 the USD was worth CAD $1.40.


----------



## agent99

MrBlackhill said:


> I agree. From 2012 to end of 2015, the best "investment" a Canadian could do with his CAD wasn't to buy his Canadian TSX (XIU.TO), but to buy USD because in 2012 the USD was worth CAD $1 while at the end of 2015 the USD was worth CAD $1.40.


If you chose a different time span, the opposite could be shown. Based on your example, you could convert your salary checks to US$ and be ahead. But that would not make sense, because your living expenses are in C$ and are the same regardless of the exchange rate. 

I have arranged to earn some of our dividend income in US$, but only because before Covid, we spent a fair amount on snowbirding in the USA. 

Of course the small C$/US$ FX changes do not compare with the insane fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. Would you convert your salary deposits into Bitcoins?  No? Perhaps because it's price is unstable and risk is very high. 

Rainy day here, so please ignore my ramblings


----------



## MrMatt

agent99 said:


> If you chose a different time span, the opposite could be shown. Based on your example, you could convert your salary checks to US$ and be ahead. But that would not make sense, because your living expenses are in C$ and are the same regardless of the exchange rate.
> 
> I have arranged to earn some of our dividend income in US$, but only because before Covid, we spent a fair amount on snowbirding in the USA.
> 
> Of course the small C$/US$ FX changes do not compare with the insane fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. Would you convert your salary deposits into Bitcoins?  No? Perhaps because it's price is unstable and risk is very high.
> 
> Rainy day here, so please ignore my ramblings


I wouldn't convert my savings into bitcoin anymore than I'd buy Diesel fuel.
It isn't an investment, and it's not useful to me.

The big thing blockchain detractors miss, is there are many uses for this technology.
The big thing that I think blockchain promoters are is a valuation method beyond "it's gotta go up".


----------



## m3s

The point was that currencies aren't as stable as people think

If you read quarterly reports this is very clear as it has significant impacts on international business. People who spend the vast majority of their time in 1 country don't see it because retail knows they can't just swing the price of a car or a book all over because of currencies

So your world expands to the USA and now you see there is a second currency. Great. I've been paid in EUR and USD and travelled to over 50 countries and can tell you currencies are far less stable than most people think. Some places cost twice as much for a Canadian to visit as they did 5-10 years ago

In a globalized world it makes too much sense to have a standard unit of value.. it also makes too much sense to have a mathematical formula for inflation of that unit

People live in familiar bubbles and don't like to open their minds


----------



## Retired Peasant

I wish people would take the time to understand the difference between cryptocurrency and blockchain.


----------



## MrMatt

Retired Peasant said:


> I wish people would take the time to understand the difference between cryptocurrency and blockchain.


I wish people would understand a lot of things.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> The point was that currencies aren't as stable as people think
> 
> If you read quarterly reports this is very clear as it has significant impacts on international business. People who spend the vast majority of their time in 1 country don't see it because retail knows they can't just swing the price of a car or a book all over because of currencies
> 
> So your world expands to the USA and now you see there is a second currency. Great. I've been paid in EUR and USD and travelled to over 50 countries and can tell you currencies are far less stable than most people think. Some places cost twice as much for a Canadian to visit as they did 5-10 years ago
> 
> In a globalized world it makes too much sense to have a standard unit of value.. it also makes too much sense to have a mathematical formula for inflation of that unit
> 
> People live in familiar bubbles and don't like to open their minds


That's why the big mac index is the most important index.


----------



## m3s

Retired Peasant said:


> I wish people would take the time to understand the difference between cryptocurrency and blockchain.


Boost mobile is adopting blockchain to secure their user accounts (telcos lose billions to fraud every year) and a loyalty program far more advanced than bs airline points. Every single company will be doing this in a matter of years.

They will all be paying gas fees in crypto instead of building their own data centers. This is why SEC is about to declare layer 1 blockchain currencies as commodities not currencies. The monetization of computer processing is coming

Thinking crypto is a currency is thinking in terms of 2008-2014.. Boost mobile parent company Dish has accepted Bitcoin since 2014 and nobody cares. That said layer 2 transactions are just going live. You can now tip BTC on twitter instantly and free and you can buy a taco in El Salvador with BTC using layer 2 apps.

The blockchain is the settlement layer. People also don't realize that Visa transactions, bank transfer and stock trades take days to settle. Blockchains take time to finalize and cost money like any other networks. Layer 2 transaction is what we already use for fiat you just didn't think about it


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> I wish people would understand a lot of things.


People don't understand how adding all the additional processes required to transact in crypto is of any value to them.

Companies maintain security over their data by keeping records offline. Without doing so, a bank that was hacked would have no way to restore their business.

Keeping records on a pubic blockchain that could be hacked in the future is the last thing that a data security expert would recommend.


----------



## m3s

sags how did you become the voice of these data security experts? who are they exactly?

Most (like 80%) of major companies are already using private blockchains or developing them

Stop digging


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> People don't understand how adding all the additional processes required to transact in crypto is of any value to them.


What additional process?
It's easier and fewer proccesses to transact in crypto.

Lets say I go to on online store.
I send X bitcoin from my wallet, to your wallet. Done.
If I pay by Credit card, I give the store information, who validates the transaction through their provider, thorugh the network to my credit card issuer.
Then they report the actual transaction through their provider, through the network, and my issuer.
Then I get a bill, and I send money through some other system to my credit card issuer, likely an electronic payment through my bank.
Then my credit card issuer passes the money around (who knows how) and gives it to the merchant.

I don't see how all these added steps to use a Credit card are of any value to me.



> Companies maintain security over their data by keeping records offline. Without doing so, a bank that was hacked would have no way to restore their business.


They don't keep their records "offline", they simply have a write once ledger. This has been standard for decades.
Which is exactly what blockchains are, a write once ledger.



> Keeping records on a pubic blockchain that could be hacked in the future is the last thing that a data security expert would recommend.


The blockchain can't be hacked by changing the approved blocks. Once approved, they're read only.


----------



## sags

Extra processes like......sending all your information to an unregulated cryto exchange, setting up a secure wallet, buying crypto for fiat at highly fluctuating prices, and then spending crypto to buy something with a purchase that is non refundable and can't be reversed.

Then to get your fiat back into your bank account.......reverse the entire process by selling the crypto at the previously mentioned exchange.

They will also pay a fee to buy and to sell the crypto......and have to wait an undetermined amount of time to have the transaction verified on the blockchain.

People could choose to do all of that..........or they could just tap their debit or credit card in a 2 second transaction.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Extra processes like......sending all your information to an unregulated cryto exchange, setting up a secure wallet, buying crypto for fiat at highly fluctuating prices, and then spending crypto to buy something with a purchase that is non refundable and can't be reversed.
> 
> Then to get your fiat back into your bank account.......reverse the entire process by selling the crypto at the previously mentioned exchange.
> 
> They will also pay a fee to buy and to sell the crypto......and have to wait an undetermined amount of time to have the transaction verified on the blockchain.
> 
> People could choose to do all of that..........or they could just tap their debit or credit card in a 2 second transaction.



I get you don't like or understand crypto.
But you're making up reasons
1. You don't have to send your information, or use an unregulated exchange.
- I've used crypto and I've never sent my information, nor do I use an unregulated exchange.
2. To use a CC you have to set up that account, which is far more work than setting up a wallet.
3. Crypto transactions are refundable and can be reversed.

Your argument that there are more steps with crypto are almost laughable.
There are far fewer steps with crypto tranactions, and if anything the transition from fiat->crypto or crypto->fiat is the problem anyway.


----------



## Spudd

m3s said:


> Canada has 3 BTC ETFs and the USA has 5 BTC ETFs pending approval in Oct
> 
> The others in Canada I believe are all ETH. Cathie Wood is using the Canadian ETFs


There are 5 in CAD that I can see:
HBIT
BTCX.B
EBIT
BTCC.B
BITC


----------



## sags

The whole premise of "private" crypto is retarded.

The premise is to buy "private" crypto today because people will be obligated to buy it from you in the future at whatever price you decide.

And while this is happening, governments will supposedly allow a bunch of nerds and criminals to take over their currency and financial systems.

Sorry.......I don't see that happening.

Crypto has reached the point where it has been noticed by governments and regulators, and they will have to deal with it like China did.

There is no news coming out of the US that would convince me they are going to do anything but develop a FED stable coin.

The US initiatives currently under way.....including consideration of reversing a decision on banks holding cryptocurrencies.









Explainer: How U.S. regulators are cracking down on cryptocurrencies


Regulators globally are cracking down on cryptocurrencies, alarmed at a rapidly expanding market that exceeded a record $2 trillion in April. China on Friday said it was banning all crypto trading and mining, sending digital coins tumbling.




www.reuters.com


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The whole premise of "private" crypto is retarded.


That's like saying the whole premise of cash transactions are retarded.

Also you seem infatuated with this idea of crypto as a "currency replacement", not a tool that has many applications.

You're the kind of person who heard about "naked news" and would have said video streaming has no use, because it's only used for porn.


----------



## m3s

J Pow confirmed no intention to ban bitcoin - straight from the horse's mouth

No surprise there because it's not like anyone could ban it (most Chinese already use VPN to access facebook, google, wikipedia etc) CBDC absolutely should replace things like USDT. They could even just adopt the existing USDC like Visa/Mastercard are doing

Regulation and clarity is very bullish. Maybe J Pow aint so bad for an old feller after all






More impressive - a European bank made a very long and thorough proposal to MakerDAO today. Most boomers don't even know what a DAO is yet so this is extremely bullish

US should also approve their BTC ETFs in Oct as long as they stop bickering about how they can debase their fiat faster than they already have


----------



## sags

You missed the part where Powell said........."take the word cryptocurrencies out of the sentence".

He is talking about stable coins, based on USD and subject to the same regulation as money market funds.

He mentions central bank stable coins, as an example.


----------



## m3s

Didn't miss it at all

There are a lot of things especially some of the stablecoins that need to be investigated. USDT is not transparent or decentralized at all. It needs to be replaced by USDC or if US wants to rebuild its own CBDC sure go for it. Algorithmic stablecoins backed by real crypto will replace them all anyways

He said take the word cryptocurrencies out as in they are all very different. BTC, ETH and the likes will be treated as commodities (draft regulation)


----------



## m3s

Visa article on how they plan to link CBDC, or anything else, using Ethereum smart contracts @sags









Making digital currency interoperable






usa.visa.com







> Imagine splitting the check with your friends, when everyone at the table is using a different type of money — some using a central bank digital currency (or CBDC) like Sweden’s eKrona, and others preferring a private stablecoin like USDC. How about sending $500 in USDC to a friend in London, and having those funds automatically converted to digital British pounds before they arrive in her CBDC wallet. Now imagine all this happening in real-time, across multiple networks, and compatible with multiple digital wallets.


Personally I think Visa is just trying to stay relevant a bit longer. Once people discover crypto we all just use apps. No need for intermediaries like Visa, Square, PayPal.

There's better tech already further ahead such as Coti.


----------



## agent99

james4beach said:


> I am not ruling out the possibility that crypto coins of all types (BTC, ETH, etc) could be total scams or ponzi schemes. BTC is already known to have heavily concentrated original ownership (the whales) so it *might have originated* as an ingenious pump-and-dump scheme. .


Bit coins have come a long way since then. There is a sign outside our local corner variety store - *Bitcoins available here!*

How could they be a scam when our local variety store sells them along with everyday honest to good products like milk and bread?

I might have bought one if I had had $60,009.98 in my pocket.🎃

Apparently you can get them at gas stations too!








The Case for Cryptocurrency at Convenience Stores


Bitcoin ATMs can be a high-value play for c-store and gas station operators.




www.csnews.com





That link says they (BTMs) are an alternative to underbanked communities 

Seems like some have decided that renting out BTMs is a way to make money on Bit and other coins. Wonder how much they skim off. Same as the banks? Apparently not! They can be in the 7.5-10% range it seems! And we thought the banks were ripping us off!


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> I might have bought one if I had had $60,009.98 in my pocket.🎃


Bitcoin has 8 decimal places. Who benefits from rounding off to 2 decimal places anyways? I don't know but I doubt it's us

ATMs are a scam yes. I don't know who uses them or why. Probably the same people who buy lottery tickets. Visa also charges 3-4% on every single transaction



agent99 said:


> That link says they are an alternative to underbanked communities


That link is over a year old.

Western Union makes a fortune off poor people sending remittances to their home country. I had a roommate from a developing country this summer who worked open to close everyday to send money home. She would tell me how americans treat her and I personally saw it at TD Bank. They were quite embarrassed when they realized I was with her. She uses crypto now

In El Salvador people were giving Western Union half their pay and people had to spend a day just to get to Western Union. Now they are using bitcoin lightning network and they already have more active addresses than the largest banks in the country. Crypto is taking off in India, parts of Africa and now the middle east etc. Banks hit them the most we just aren't as impacted

TD Bank and Western Union will decline with the boomers. Hopefully sooner than later


----------



## sags

It doesn't sound like a bitcoin currency is working out all that well in El Salvador.









Opinion | El Salvador Runs a Bitcoin Scam


The cryptocurrency as obligatory legal tender undermines dollarization.




www.wsj.com













Fear and excitement in El Salvador as Bitcoin becomes legal tender


Millions of Salvadorians are expected to download a digital wallet app with $30 of free Bitcoin.



www.bbc.com


----------



## sags

Poor people are hoping bitcoins will make them rich.

Many of them don't even have computers, smart phones or data plans but they buy a few satoshis and dream of better days.

In El Salvador people are earning less for a day's work now because bitcoin value went down. They also pay a 10% fee to change to fiat.

El Salvador has announced they will mine bitcoins using "volcano" power. They are all set up and mined......a whopping $280 worth.

As the value of bitcoins declined, workers demand more bitcoins to make up the shortfall. They aren't going to work all day for less money.

El Salvador had to buy more bitcoins in the open market to pay the workers but are running out of money., so they are going to volcano mine bitcoins........LOL.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. The President best keep his aircraft running on the tamac in case he has to depart in the middle of the night.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> In El Salvador people are earning less for a day's work now because bitcoin value went down.


You mean like Americans and Canadians since we left the gold standard?



sags said:


> They also pay a 10% fee to change to fiat.


That's not a bitcoin fee.. it's a good ol fashion boomer fee


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Poor people are hoping bitcoins will make them rich.


That's why they're poor, they're hoping to get rich quick.



> In El Salvador people are earning less for a day's work now because bitcoin value went down. They also pay a 10% fee to change to fiat.


Then don't change with that vendor, personally I think a 10% exchange fee is a bit steep, so I wouldn't use it.
I don't use the moneychanger at the airport either.


----------



## m3s

I already pay 0.07% exchange fees. Even so I spent 5 figures in fees. With loyalty tokens you could bring the fees down further

Automated market makers will bring that down further for everyone as capital efficiency improves and liquidity/competition increases. No need for sky scrapers full of people in cubicles and the small fees go to the liquidity providers

This will inevitable kill the legacy bank's gravy train. They are still using COBAL and hilariously insecure systems


----------



## agent99

m3s said:


> That link is over a year old.


Wow over a year! That is really old!
Gosh we were 8 months into the pandemic in Sep 2020.

Probably is a long time ago in Cripto-years. Bitcoin has gone up only 4.27X (327%) since then.

Other than to buy drugs or do some other illegal transaction, can't imagine why anyone would buy Bitcoins, especially from an ATM.


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> Wow over a year! That is really old!
> Other than to buy drugs or do some other illegal transaction, can't imagine why anyone would buy Bitcoins, especially from an ATM.


Well that was the narrative like 8 years ago. BTC is up over 100x since then

I know Canada is still behind the times and old folks are uncomfortable with change


----------



## MrBlackhill

I've been thinking about the "crypto as a scam" idea. Notee that there's over $2T in cryptocurrencies, to those who say crypto will go to $0, what would happen if $2T would go to $0? Isn't there a point where something is too big to ignore? Supply and demand will stay.

And if say it has no intrinsic value, well what's the intrinsic value of any collectible, other than the value people are willing to pay for them?

And crypto are certainly more useful than collectibles.


----------



## agent99

m3s said:


> Well that was the narrative like 8 years ago. BTC is up over 100x since then
> 
> I know Canada is still behind the times and old folks are uncomfortable with change


You seem to take pleasure in denigrating older people. Not just me, but those with a lot more life experience than you have. Even the likes of Warren Buffet and the fed chairman. In fact anyone who disagrees with your juvenile biased views on the crypto scam.
You said you were leaving this discussion. Why are you still here? You are now on Ignore, so don't bother answering(Isn't technology great!). Keep drinking that Kool Aid.


----------



## agent99

This is a review of crypto currencies that I recently read. For those, like me, trying to make sense of this financial phenomenon, it may be worth a read.









Crypto Dreamin’? The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly


The author explains why he remains skeptical and has grown cynical about cryptocurrencies.




blogs.cfainstitute.org


----------



## sags

MrBlackhill said:


> I've been thinking about the "crypto as a scam" idea. Notee that there's over $2T in cryptocurrencies, to those who say crypto will go to $0, what would happen if $2T would go to $0? Isn't there a point where something is too big to ignore? Supply and demand will stay.
> 
> And if say it has no intrinsic value, well what's the intrinsic value of any collectible, other than the value people are willing to pay for them?


There are collectibles that are worthless (children collecting sea shells) and there are collectibles that are extremely valuable due to their attributes (Mona Lisa).

Bitcoins fail on all of the attributes normally applicable to valuable collectibles and would fall into the worthless category.


----------



## sags

Cyptocurrencies have gone up in value. People are earning money from cryptocurrencies.

Both of those are true, but they are also true with ponzie schemes, pyramid schemes and frauds.

They pay off.......until they don't. The beauty of this particular scheme is nobody will know who is responsible for it.

It is actually quite brilliant and I would guess it was wildly more successful than the perpetrators ever dreamed it could be.

In that context it isn't surprising the creator or creators of bitcoin chose to wear the veil of anonymity from the outset.

Think about it. How many people in all of history have been this successful at creating something and never stepped forward to even take a simple bow ?

And as some believe has never touched or even moved his/their original million or so bitcoins........hmm.

I think about that as well. All those billions of dollars sitting in a wallet and Satoshi can't think of a single good use for any of that money.

No food banks, money for education, drinking water for villages in Africa, financial support for cancer research,....nope..can't think of a thing.

It really makes me question if the creator is a human being or more likely some soul less government entity.


----------



## james4beach

agent99 said:


> How could they be a scam when our local variety store sells them along with everyday honest to good products like milk and bread?


Because they're being stupid, and during an easy money mania, a lot of stupidity slides by (or not exposed).


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> I've been thinking about the "crypto as a scam" idea. Notee that there's over $2T in cryptocurrencies, to those who say crypto will go to $0, what would happen if $2T would go to $0? Isn't there a point where something is too big to ignore? Supply and demand will stay.


Most of that $2T in crypto "value" is paper worth.

Lets say I make a company, I sell 1% for $1, valuation is now $100.
That 1% trades for $2, now the valuation is $200.

That $100 in valuation jump only took $1 to implement.
In the real world it's even worse. They'll calculate the whole company/bitcoin etc based off the last single transaction



> And if say it has no intrinsic value, well what's the intrinsic value of any collectible, other than the value people are willing to pay for them?


Yes, and that's why I don't invest in collectibles, I don't get the valuation strategy.



> And crypto are certainly more useful than collectibles.


Some is, some isn't. I've used beanie babies as counterbalances on my photography lighting. Can't do that with bitcoin.


----------



## agent99

james4beach said:


> Because they're being stupid, and during an easy money mania, a lot of stupidity slides by (or not exposed).


SeekingAlpha discusses bubbles. Crypto covered near the end.

exerpt:


> The conclusion: Even if cryptos end up dominating some future monetary system, their parabolic arcs in the here and now scream "bubble!"
> 
> *As for moral hazard …*
> A true bubble is more than just soaring prices. It also features people behaving in ways that with hindsight will seem totally incomprehensible.


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> You seem to take pleasure in denigrating older people. Not just me, but those with a lot more life experience than you have. Even the likes of Warren Buffet and the fed chairman.


You mean how boomers take pleasure in constantly denigrating younger people and their views? Warren Buffet calls cryptocurrency "rat poison squared" and that was ok with you. No connection that Warren Buffet is heavily invested in things that can be disrupted by it.

It's acceptable now to say all millennials are soft and juvenile yet you will go to the mods and ban someone who has an opposing view. Notice how millennials take the constant criticism and say ok boomer.. While the boomers get triggered just by the term boomer.


----------



## m3s

Most people on this forum thought tech was a bubble in 2010. We can still dig up all the quotes from the same active posters here saying how iPhones were a fad and smartphones would become cheap commodities and how amazon and google were overhyped bubbles.

Most people don't understand S curves from mass adoptions and the global scale of tech. Most people don't understand Metcalfe's law and how FAANG value correlated with the global network effect. Crypto is still a niche but if it hits mass adoptions it can go up a long ways from here

Apple was around for decades and for me when I got the first iPhone I knew it would be huge. I remember it took years for people to catch on even when I showed them they didn't get it or want something new. It didn't happen overnight. Very similar to crypto right now.


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> You mean how boomers take pleasure in constantly denigrating younger people and their views? . . . It's acceptable now to say all millennials are soft and juvenile yet you will go to the mods and ban someone who has an opposing view. Notice how millennials take the constant criticism and say ok boomer


I'm a millennial too, and not all millennials are into crypto currencies or NFTs.

I think they're a bubble, a shared delusion that will eventually collapse.

I also think that you are not considering that the crypto mania might be driven by wealthy billionnaires in silicon valley. Personally I think they have a spun a "populist" story, because that's what appeals to people. I think the billionnaires who own this stuff are manipulating the public, including you @m3s

They have created a narrative that crypto koinz are something for the small guy, when in fact they are getting rich off this stuff by trading, rigging markets, and creating DeFi start-up companies in an unregulated space.

The "power of the millennial" is, IMO, a marketing gimmick, exploiting the desperation and gullibility of young people.

Don't you get upset at the idea of silicon valley elites tricking you, and playing mind games with you? I think the whole narrative is fake. My guess is that once silicon valley's elite have finished milking the crypto bubble, they will cash out, and leave all the "bag holders" behind.

IMO this is all a massive pump & dump orchestrated by very wealthy people in silicon valley. *I think millennials are being played like fools.*


----------



## sags

Steve Jobs was a "tail end" boomer, as are Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos.

Let the young ones play with their magic internet money. It will be a good life lesson for them.

I used to ask my dad why we didn't have a "money tree" in the backyard.......like my Grandpa told me he had.

Then when I discovered the truth about Santa.......I was crushed.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> I also think that you are not considering that the crypto mania might be driven by wealthy billionnaires in silicon valley. Personally I think they have a spun a "populist" story, because that's what appeals to people. I think the billionnaires who own this stuff are manipulating the public, including you @m3s
> 
> They have created a narrative that crypto koinz are something for the small guy, when in fact they are getting rich off this stuff by trading, rigging markets, and creating DeFi start-up companies in an unregulated space.


I see both

Solana for example has great tech (ex Qualcomm network/software engineers who built 3G, LTE etc) and it is mostly backed by billionaires who got to buy most of the tokens in a pre-sale and now pump it up. Billionaires aren't necessarily bad imo because capital helps a lot to fund the developers and get the momentum rolling. Internet Computer also came out of silicon valley. I won't touch these because they are far too centralized both from the technical hardware side and the investor side. At the core they are impressive tech though

Ethereum however was built from the ground up and can still be run on my 10 year old laptop so anyone can participate unlike Solana. It's far more decentralized and secure. Ethereum is the true grassroots movement that a lot of people are trying to replicate. The worst you can say about Ethereum is that it's a victim of its own explosive success. It needs to scale fast before something better like Cardano replaces it. Cardano by the way is constantly attacked by the billionaires because they did not get a pre-sale like Solana

There is also a very strong fabricated narrative coming from mass media that constantly puts this tech in a very bad light. This is clearly because disruptive tech could impact extremely profitable financial sector. How do you not see this @james4beach ? There are videos on youtube showing how mass media are all reading from the exact same scripted narratives.. Boomers seem to be much more accepting of these fabricated mass narratives because it was their main source of information for most of their life.

Crypto isn't populist yet at all. It's still very niche. The vast majority haven't touched it because it isn't ready but huge developments are just launching now. Give it another year or two at least. If you got in now you're still very early


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Steve Jobs was a "tail end" boomer, as are Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos.
> 
> Let the young ones play with their magic internet money. It will be a good life lesson for them.
> 
> I used to ask my dad why we didn't have a "money tree" in the backyard.......like my Grandpa told me he had.
> 
> Then when I discovered the truth about Santa.......I was crushed.


@sags did your daddy tell you to invest in the visionaries like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos? You probably didn't believe in disruptive tech then for the same reason you don't believe in disruptive tech today

Instead you believe in santa like the masses led you to believe. I was not crushed at all by fairy tales and santa.. I constantly question things the masses blindly believe from a very young age. I'm also constantly learning. I learned from this forum that if I trusted myself more instead I could have invested far more in FAANG. When I started to trust myself more I started to find much more success. I stopped listening to those who are closed minded and constantly find fault in everything

Now I wake up to find more under the magic tree than a year's pay. Stop listening to people like your daddy sags. He led you to santa and all kinds of other bs narratives the masses regurgitate to their kids


----------



## Jimmy

Interesting listening to Cathy Wood's recent video. Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador now. There are ~6M people. 3.7M downloaded the electronic Bitcoin wallets while only 1.2 M have traditional banking accounts. 

Just one example how Defi is replacing traditional banking so no wonder the animosity towards it from the various groups standing to lose.


----------



## m3s

We can only hope Cathy Wood doesn't get character assassinated for daring to speak against the mainstream narrative

You can see videos now with every news agency across the US reading off the same script word for word. Crypto currency evil. Orange man bad etc

Will there be a narrative to occupy El Salvador for daring to sidestep the petro dollar? Or maybe the three letter agencies can get the job done

Printing USD does not benefit El Salvador or Libya or Iraq


----------



## kcowan

Like all manias, there is always some truth underneath all the hype. Even in the dotcom bubble, there was some fundamental value being developed that has emerged as a new economy.

What is emerging in the current mania is that blockchain is a breakthrough technology. It has the power to disintermediate traditional forms of trading value. Scrip and similar devices have always existed to do the same thing. What is needed is a powerful backing to make it happen. Help it to become a standard.

There are hundreds of analogies of companies using breakthrough technologies that no longer exist. (Analogies are always flawed but the Palm Pilot could have evolved into a smartphone. Multiplan could have become Quickbooks.)

Granted none of these examples are in the same league as blockchain. The issue is that most people with the skills to deploy it in business would be reducing the fundamental value of their core business if they were sucessful.

The more open versions might evolve or some proprietary giant might do it.


----------



## sags

This Cathie Wood ?









Investors fled Cathie Wood's flagship fund in the 3rd quarter faster than any other on record


After exploding nearly 150% in 2020, ARKK is down more than 11% so far in 2021 and is being hit by regular outflows.




markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> This Cathie Wood ?


Yup

The description says it all. Up 150% and once it is down 11% people start to flee like sheep. Market price and sheep selling isn't indicative of the underlying tech

I wouldn't buy her funds like a blind sheep who find their career randomly at a party but there are a lot of good opportunities in there to watch for


----------



## agent99

Jimmy said:


> Interesting listening to Cathy Wood's recent video. Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador now. There are ~6M people. 3.7M downloaded the electronic Bitcoin wallets while only 1.2 M have traditional banking accounts.
> 
> Just one example how Defi is replacing traditional banking so no wonder the animosity towards it from the various groups standing to lose.


El Salvador eh? Not exactly a major economy. And one with serious problems. And they are the only one. Others who follow suit, will be those with economies in similar dire straits.

Take care before putting your money into crypto. There may be money to be made by the manipulators, but not by us small fry.


----------



## m3s

The crypto mania is building towards another blow off top.

It can crash +50% again but it can also go up far more before that. There's a lot of junk and there's a few gems. Very low signal to noise

The vast majority of "crypto currencies" are just ethereum tokens on the ethereum network that require ETH to function. Visa, twitter, reddit and TikTok are all adopting ethereum now. It's here folks. Ethereum has massive scaling solutions going live now and will be exponentially more energy efficient and scalable (years of work coming to fruition now) This is all signal

I have hands on with both ethereum and cardano - latter is a more refined version of the former but also much less developed. Ethereum could be myspace and cardano could be the facebook but more likely they coexist. Things like solana and internet computer could surpass them with clever marketing (Tom Brady) and billionaire backing but this would be unfortunate

The rest is noise. Lots and lots of noise


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> Take care before putting your money into crypto. There may be money to be made by the manipulators, but not by us small fry.


And yet lots of small fry made money for 10 years already


----------



## m3s

kcowan said:


> Analogies are always flawed but the Palm Pilot could have evolved into a smartphone.


I bought myself a Palm Pilot with money from a high school job. It's kind of like ethereum - way too clunky and technical for mainstream adoption - a niche for nerds and early adopters

I had a blackberry for work. It's kind of like the cardano. Professional and academic enough for professional and large business adoption (they have deals with fortune 500 companies and small governments)

My dad had a pager and one of those giant cell phones from the '90s. That's like bitcoin. The cellular network is the foundation for what the smart phones were eventually built on

We probably don't have the iPhone yet. It could just be the higher layer of user interface known as dApps. More like how google made the internet usable for mainstream. Web 3.0 is coming and you will love it


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Most people on this forum thought tech was a bubble in 2010. We can still dig up all the quotes from the same active posters here saying how iPhones were a fad and smartphones would become cheap commodities and how amazon and google were overhyped bubbles.


I'm a bit shocked that everyone is still with expensive phones, but for most people they get iPhones as a status symbol.

It took me a while to figure out Amazon and Google, but to be fair I bought Google in 2009, which is okay.
That being said, I never expected Google to completely dominate the way they have.
Remember at the time there were many search engines, and most people used several.
Also a lot of Googles growth is from acquisitions, the Google behemoth today is NOT the Google that IPO'd.




> Most people don't understand S curves from mass adoptions and the global scale of tech.


You're not talking to "most people" here, you're talking to mostly informed financially aware or interested people.
You are confusing not agreeing with not understanding, while not understanding is one reason to disagree, there is also the fact that they may have a different opinion.



> Crypto is still a niche but if it hits mass adoptions it can go up a long ways from here


No doubt, but the real question is which if any of the current platforms will dominate the field, or will it be a commodity.



> Apple was around for decades and for me when I got the first iPhone I knew it would be huge. I remember it took years for people to catch on even when I showed them they didn't get it or want something new. It didn't happen overnight.


No it went through many failures, including the Newton, PalmPilot, Blackberry and others.



> Very similar to crypto right now.


Absolutely.
The crypto platforms of today might be the Google of the future, or they might just be Archie and Veronica.

Remember some of us saw the early internet, and remember the dominance of such stalwarts as Yahoo or AOL.


----------



## sags

When Bitcoins go up in value...all crypto goes up in value. When bitcoins go down in value...all crypto goes down in value.

The weight of the crypto world rests on bitcoins mighty shoulders.

But......just look at all the magic elixer being peddled to the gullible by the snake oil and crypto crap salesmen.

And this profound pile of garbage is only the tip of the iceberg.



https://twitter.com/search?q=%23CRYPTO


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> This Cathie Wood ?


Looks like the taxpayer will have to bail out GM yet again. Print more money to keep the unions employed

GM making excuses for its failures while lobbying Biden to not even mention Tesla

Pathetic


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1444424136013537290


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Looks like the taxpayer will have to bail out GM yet again. Print more money to keep the unions employed
> 
> GM making excuses for its failures while lobbying Biden to not even mention Tesla
> 
> Pathetic
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1444424136013537290


Who's asking for a bailout?

GM sold way more cars than Tesla.
Also for the last reported quarter, GM made more than double the profit Tesla did.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I'm a bit shocked that everyone is still with expensive phones, but for most people they get iPhones as a status symbol.


They get iPhone because of its network effect. Nobody looks down on people with Androids maybe you are insecure about it. Apple was around a long time before iPhone but that was a pivotal moment. Most people were very slow to recognize it and some still refuse to try it for their own unconscious vanity/status reasons



MrMatt said:


> It took me a while to figure out Amazon and Google, but to be fair I bought Google in 2009, which is okay.
> That being said, I never expected Google to completely dominate the way they have.
> Remember at the time there were many search engines, and most people used several.


There are pivotal moments in time. Google was around a long time before gmail. I was an early adopter of Gmail when the vast majority were using Hotmail and Firefox or Explorer. When I saw everyone switching to google, gmail, chrome ecosystem etc I saw the network effect. The user engagement correlates to the value of the company (Metcalfe's law)

My point is that Apple, Google, ethereum etc were around for a long time before a key moment when the risk/return changed significantly at a key moment. Crypto is at a pivotal moment in time. For me it was last year when the US approved major US banks to custody crypto. J Pow just reconfirmed they will not ban all crypto.

Before that it was much more risky imo. People hate crypto because they project their anger for being late on easy money - yet it is still extremely early. It's like google just launched gmail, apple just released the iphone and it will still take years for the vast majority to see it for what it is. It doesn't happen overnight


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Who's asking for a bailout?
> 
> GM sold way more cars than Tesla.
> Also for the last reported quarter, GM made more than double the profit Tesla did.


Maybe a pivotal moment in time for Tesla?

Just like apple, google, amazon, crypto - the vast majority are still in denial and it takes time to adjust to superior tech. Most people kept using Hotmail and Blackberry when they could be using gmail and iPhone etc. So yes GM is still selling more vehicles. Doesn't mean they won't be driving Tesla in the future

People just don't like change.


----------



## Jimmy

sags said:


> This Cathie Wood ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Investors fled Cathie Wood's flagship fund in the 3rd quarter faster than any other on record
> 
> 
> After exploding nearly 150% in 2020, ARKK is down more than 11% so far in 2021 and is being hit by regular outflows.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> markets.businessinsider.com


Yes The one who made investors 150% in 2020 . Some who bought at the top and got in late are down 11% in 2021 and are fleeing is their problem not hers


----------



## james4beach

Jimmy said:


> Interesting listening to Cathy Wood's recent video


Cathie Wood is a failed dot com hedge fund manager, who tried making a name for herself in 2000-2001 and sucked at her job. She abandoned her hedge fund in 2001 (or maybe 2002) and didn't show her face again for a long time.

Now that people have forgotten her, she's come back.

She's a charlatan.


----------



## Jimmy

james4beach said:


> Cathie Wood is a failed dot com hedge fund manager, who tried making a name for herself in 2000-2001 and sucked at her job. She abandoned her hedge fund in 2001 (or maybe 2002) and didn't show her face again for a long time.
> 
> Now that people have forgotten her, she's come back.
> 
> She's a charlatan.


Just the envy talking. Keep losing $ on your bond funds and she'll keep making 150%.


----------



## m3s

> Two Federal Reserve officials embroiled in controversy for trading securities that could have benefited from the central bank’s 2020 intervention in financial markets announced on Monday that they would leave their positions.


Fed front runs their own market manipulation. This is why we need open and transparent monetary policy.

Don't forget Janet Yellen gets millions in "speaking fees" from the very banks she regulates.. The same banks also control the mainstream media narrative



> Wells Fargo pays $72.6 million to resolve Justice Department claims it defrauded currency customers. The bank allegedly overcharged 771 businesses on foreign exchange transactions from 2010 through 2017, according to the Justice Department lawsuit filed Monday
> 
> Wells Fargo told the commercial customers they were being charged certain fixed rates, but then incentivized salespeople to “overcharge FX customers,” according to the lawsuit. The bank then concealed the overcharges and gave “false explanations” for the inflated prices, the government said.


How many millions does the taxpayer spend investigating this and imagine how many fraudulent exchanges go undetected..

This is why we need decentralized exchange aggregators to get the best exchange rates that aren't manipulated by the banks

I'm sure boomers on this forum can understand this one. Stop listening to mainstream media and open your eyes



> The Wells Fargo account fraud scandal is a controversy brought about by the creation of millions of fraudulent savings and checking accounts on behalf of Wells Fargo clients without their consent. News of the fraud became widely known in late 2016 after various regulatory bodies, including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), fined the company a combined US$185 million as a result of the illegal activity. The company faces additional civil and criminal suits reaching an estimated $2.7 billion by the end of 2018. The creation of these fake accounts continues to have legal and financial ramifications for Wells Fargo and former bank executives as of early 2021.


Didn't CBC report on Canadian banks using incentivized sales pressure tactics and scams a few years ago as well? Weren't the victims mostly elderly who the tellers target

Why are the boomers so complicit and defensive of this archaic system? Did they put something extra in your vaccines or prescription drugs?

Banks are long overdue for disruption already.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> They get iPhone because of its network effect.


I don't think so.
I can understand the ecosystem argument.
But network effect? I don't see it.



> Nobody looks down on people with Androids maybe you are insecure about it.


Not really, I see people bragging about having the latest version of iPhone. They're not functionally different, they're just having the latest and greatest.



> Apple was around a long time before iPhone but that was a pivotal moment. Most people were very slow to recognize it and some still refuse to try it for their own unconscious vanity/status reasons


The iPhone was just evolutionary



> There are pivotal moments in time. Google was around a long time before gmail. I was an early adopter of Gmail when the vast majority were using Hotmail and Firefox or Explorer. When I saw everyone switching to google, gmail, chrome ecosystem etc I saw the network effect. The user engagement correlates to the value of the company (Metcalfe's law)


I think you're trying to shoehorn concepts where they don't fit.
There isn't much "network effect" in gmail. Nobody cares if you're using gmail, it's JUST EMAIL. Being on email, sure there is a network effect, but gmail doesn't do anything 



> My point is that Apple, Google, ethereum etc were around for a long time before a key moment when the risk/return changed significantly at a key moment. Crypto is at a pivotal moment in time. For me it was last year when the US approved major US banks to custody crypto. J Pow just reconfirmed they will not ban all crypto.
> 
> Before that it was much more risky imo. People hate crypto because they project their anger for being late on easy money - yet it is still extremely early. It's like google just launched gmail, apple just released the iphone and it will still take years for the vast majority to see it for what it is. It doesn't happen overnight


My point is that 
1. I don't have a case to determine which blockchains will be winners.
2. I think your "network effect" argument is wrong.

Even your iPhone & chrome/gmail example is a poor example of network effect.
Facebook or Twitter are much stronger example of network effect.
My neighbourhood communicates through a facebook group, because most of the middle age parents are on facebook.
My various governments communicate through twitter, rather than their own platforms.


----------



## sags

Cathie Wood pumped Tesla in the October 2021 tweet and on CNBC and other media.

Then in classic pump and dump fashion, she proceeded to sell all her Tesla shares.

She used the money to buy Coinbase, Robinhood, and other "disruptive" technology stocks and they have done poorly.

The ARK fund was down 11% when the S&P was up 18%. That is a 28% difference.

The short sellers have camped on ARK funds. It isn't surprising that investors are fleeing.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Maybe a pivotal moment in time for Tesla?
> 
> Just like apple, google, amazon, crypto - the vast majority are still in denial and it takes time to adjust to superior tech. Most people kept using Hotmail and Blackberry when they could be using gmail and iPhone etc. So yes GM is still selling more vehicles. Doesn't mean they won't be driving Tesla in the future
> 
> People just don't like change.


Ford is selling a lot of EV's, and I'd be suprised if their F150 doesn't remain at least a strong player going forward.
You want to talk about adjusting to superior tech, who rolled out massive numbers of Hybrids, Aluminum vehicles, start stop, turbos across their lineup? 
You've got blinders on if you think Tesla is the massive innovator, Ford has been pushing innovation and mass adoption of better technology for a while.

Also I didn't say that Tesla doesn't have a future, I said comparing the problems a high volume manufacturer like GM is having isn't a proper comparison. Also, considering the 2B+ profit, I don't see a need for a bailout.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Didn't CBC report on Canadian banks using incentivized sales pressure tactics and scams a few years ago as well? Weren't the victims mostly elderly who the tellers target


CIBC has been a [email protected]# for decades, I personally had money stolen, know family who had fraudulent withdrawals and seniors who were stolen from, this goes back decades.
For example my elderly neighbour had a "both to sign" checking account. The bank was cashing checks with just one signature and said "well it's her money and you're wrong to treat old people this way". It was insane




> Banks are long overdue for disruption already.


Banks should be broken up into the various divisions.
Some reform would be good, you don't have to burn it all to the ground.


----------



## sags

Yes........GM and all the other manufacturers have a problem.

They have long lineups of customers wanting to buy vehicles and dealers can't get them due to the global chip shortage.

Two weeks ago, our dealer only had a couple of new vehicles, and we bought a 2022 Trailblazer 2 hours after the auto hauler dropped it off.

There is a huge pent up demand for new vehicles as the average vehicle on the road is getting considerably older. (Canada-10 years, US - 12 years.)

Musk is desperate. He knows the competition is coming and they are making some very fine vehicles.

Without bitcoins profits and government carbon rebates......Tesla lost money on vehicle production.

Those are temporary financial supports for Tesla that are evaporating as the other manufacturers produce their own EV vehicles.

Elon Musk needs to spend more time on building out a dealer network, and less time on bitcoins and rocket ships.

Cathie Woods needs to pray for a turnaround in her funds.


----------



## m3s

Yall focus too much on defending your own beliefs instead of looking at the signal and new information

During desperate times Tesla sales increase 70% while GM sales decrease 30%. During desperate times GM goes bankrupt while Tesla did not. It doesn't matter if GM is selling vehicles what matters is that divergent trend going forward. If Tesla continues to increase sales and GM continues to decrease it will repeat its history of failure once again

Your wall of text is all noise and distraction from the real signal. GM is in decline and has a history of failure. Ford is fine and has a history of surviving


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I think you're trying to shoehorn concepts where they don't fit.
> There isn't much "network effect" in gmail. Nobody cares if you're using gmail, it's JUST EMAIL. Being on email, sure there is a network effect, but gmail doesn't do anything
> 
> 
> My point is that
> 1. I don't have a case to determine which blockchains will be winners.
> 2. I think your "network effect" argument is wrong.
> 
> Even your iPhone & chrome/gmail example is a poor example of network effect.
> Facebook or Twitter are much stronger example of network effect.
> My neighbourhood communicates through a facebook group, because most of the middle age parents are on facebook.
> My various governments communicate through twitter, rather than their own platforms.


I agree network effect was not the best term. I was trying to explain something too fast because I have other things to do

My point was that there is a moment in time where we get a sense of what will be successful going forward. You invested in Google in 2009. Investing in google earlier could have been far riskier because there would be much less information to see google succeed. At some point it started to separate itself with things like gmail mass adoption. Email is a data gold mine for google. Google's success relies on increasing users and data

We are in a pivotal moment where we see massive adoption and disruption incoming again. The stars have aligned with the world printing fiat like desperate cocaine addicts. Young people want transparency not government front runners in bed with corrupt bankers. We can see blockchain data in real time which gives us more insight than we had into the early days of FAANG (and FAANG stocks didn't go public this early on)

You should focus on who will sell cars going forward not who sold some hummers in the past


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I agree network effect was not the best term. I was trying to explain something too fast because I have other things to do
> 
> My point was that there is a moment in time where we get a sense of what will be successful going forward. You invested in Google in 2009. Investing in google earlier could have been far riskier because there would be much less information to see google succeed. At some point it started to separate itself with things like gmail mass adoption. Email is a data gold mine for google. Google's success relies on increasing users and data
> 
> We are in a pivotal moment where we see massive adoption and disruption incoming again. The stars have aligned with the world printing fiat like desperate cocaine addicts. Young people want transparency not government front runners in bed with corrupt bankers. We can see blockchain data in real time which gives us more insight than we had into the early days of FAANG (and FAANG stocks didn't go public this early on)
> 
> You should focus on who will sell cars going forward not who sold some hummers in the past


Exactly, that's why MSFT & Apple outlasted Blackberry.

I think Ford will actually outdo Tesla.
They understand mass production in a way that Elon does not.
They are also far less risk adverse than a company like Toyota.

However there is a lot of dead weight in Fords old business practices, working with a spinoff division they said they dramatically improved their organization performance by getting rid of "lots of stupid stuff".
However when problems showed up, a former Ford guy pointed out that they threw out the diagnostic systems to quickly solve the problem.

I'm not saying Ford is better than Tesla, but there is something about big old companies, which learned this stuff the hard way.


----------



## kcowan

MrMatt said:


> Exactly, that's why MSFT & Apple outlasted Blackberry.


in 1999, we were using their cellular boards for mobile POS terminals and suggested they move GPS ahead and the management demonstrated NO vision for what was possible (use in taxis/buses). I unloaded all my BB stock...


----------



## m3s

Why does the Fed get to print fiat and front run their own decisions with no risk

Was there ever an open or transparent public debate or boundaries on this monetary policy?

Notice how the rate always increases but never stabilizes?










I rest my case


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Why does the Fed get to print fiat and front run their own decisions with no risk


Because they own the currency.



> Was there ever an open or transparent public debate or boundaries on this monetary policy?


Not needed, that's what our representatives are for, to sort out those details.



> I rest my case


I doubt it.


You don't like/understand how the current system works, your questions are mostly rhetorical and prove nothing.

I rest my case.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Cathie Wood pumped Tesla in the October 2021 tweet and on CNBC and other media.
> 
> Then in classic pump and dump fashion, she proceeded to sell all her Tesla shares.
> 
> She used the money to buy Coinbase, Robinhood, and other "disruptive" technology stocks and they have done poorly.
> 
> The ARK fund was down 11% when the S&P was up 18%. That is a 28% difference.
> 
> The short sellers have camped on ARK funds. It isn't surprising that investors are fleeing.


@sags Buy low sell high

How do you spend 10 years here and not understand asset allocation of an ETF?

When TSLA goes up above its allocation target ARK sells and buys something else that's low

Investing 101


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> You don't like/understand how the current system works, your questions are mostly rhetorical and prove nothing.


Are you comfortable with that chart?


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Are you comfortable with that chart?


Interesting question.
In broad terms, until about 10 years ago, I don't see a huge issue.

I think recently they've entered a destructive path of excessively low rates, to try and forestall other problems.

It really is a question of which trade off you happen to prefer. Clearly the powers that be thought this was the least harmful option.

Now the question of if anyone should control the money supply, and be able to make those choices is an interesting discussion. There are benefits to a fixed system, and a controlled system.

Given that you've always been able to choose for yourself which system you want to hold your assets in, it really isn't that interesting a question.
















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www.jmbullion.com





So go ahead, buy gold, it's got a 100 year history of being a good hedge on the money supply.
The choice is there, and it's ALWAYS been there. You don't need new unproven technology with dubious value.


----------



## Jimmy

sags said:


> Cathie Wood pumped Tesla in the October 2021 tweet and on CNBC and other media.
> 
> Then in classic pump and dump fashion, she proceeded to sell all her Tesla shares.
> 
> She used the money to buy Coinbase, Robinhood, and other "disruptive" technology stocks and they have done poorly.
> 
> The ARK fund was down 11% when the S&P was up 18%. That is a 28% difference.
> 
> The short sellers have camped on ARK funds. It isn't surprising that investors are fleeing.


Did she do all that after she leapt over the moon?


----------



## james4beach

Jimmy said:


> Just the envy talking. Keep losing $ on your bond funds and she'll keep making 150%.


Jimmy you have to learn to be more critical, instead of idolizing celebrities. I honestly can't understand why you come to the defense of these losers (like Cathie, and Motley Fool).

Cathie was a terrible hedge fund manager in the early 2000s. Don't you want to make money, Jimmy? You're not going to make money by hitching your wagon to losers with terrible track records.

If she really had amazing capital management skills, she would have done it continuously since she started. Instead, she ran a hedge fund for a few years, *FAILED*, then disappeared only to re-emerge 15 years later wearing funny looking glasses.


----------



## sags

Cathie Wood is a gambler with other people's money.

After years of losing in the casino, she finally won a jackpot.

She traveled around telling everyone about her big casino win.

She is now in the process of giving the casino all their money back.

I haven't heard her on CNBC much lately, talking about big losses and historic fund outflows.

Gamblers don't like to talk about their losses.


----------



## agent99

James' topic seems to have gone slightly off the rails. But it was a good one. 

Not everyone will take heed, but getting into crypto is not investing. It is *gambling*. You may win, but just like at the casino, you could more than likely lose. If you want to gamble, think about how much of your money you can afford to lose. Then limit your crypto plus other gambling to that.

On a forum like this, we should be discussing *investments*. I am sure there are other forums where *gambling* can be discussed.

And, as James suggested, some of the crypto offerings are no doubt *scams*.


----------



## Jimmy

james4beach said:


> Jimmy you have to learn to be more critical, instead of idolizing celebrities. I honestly can't understand why you come to the defense of these losers (like Cathie, and Motley Fool).
> 
> Cathie was a terrible hedge fund manager in the early 2000s. Don't you want to make money, Jimmy? You're not going to make money by hitching your wagon to losers with terrible track records.
> 
> If she really had amazing capital management skills, she would have done it continuously since she started. Instead, she ran a hedge fund for a few years, *FAILED*, then disappeared only to re-emerge 15 years later wearing funny looking glasses.


As an amateur investor blogger you shouldn't get mad and project your hate onto the professional money manager experts which just makes you look juvenile.

You were shown active management and anything beats your market indexes in Mr B's thread where all your envy and misinformation was already corrected. Instead of gettimg madder you should learn from them instead of following failed strategies you read in internet blogs and outdated reports too. You should be worried about all the $ you are losing in bonds vs anything Cathy Wood is doing anyway


----------



## agent99

sags said:


> Cathie Wood is a gambler with other people's money.


I knew nothing about her, so did a search. Found this article in the NY Times:

This may be a bit scary for some!


> she repeatedly describes her late-career decision to start her own investment shop as more than a business leap of faith.
> 
> It began, she says, with a head-on encounter with the Holy Spirit.


After reading that, I would say she would not be someone I would recommend to those trying to invest their hard earned money for eventual retirement! But she should be comfortable (money wise) in her retirement.


----------



## james4beach

agent99 said:


> After reading that, I would day she would not be someone I would recommend to those trying to invest their hard earned money for eventual retirement! But she should be comfortable (money wise) in her retirement.


She's also kind of lying there. She *did* have her own hedge fund around 2000-2002, but it was a failure.

So she now pretends she never did that. Back then she was a known figure on Wall Street. I've even seen her in old documentaries about the dot com crash.

She's a charlatan. She also only employs junior analysts (people fresh out of college with no experience), who are impressionable and who probably don't call her out.

It's too bad that Jesus didn't help her pick good stocks back in 2001.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> So go ahead, buy gold, it's got a 100 year history of being a good hedge on the money supply.
> The choice is there, and it's ALWAYS been there. You don't need new unproven technology with dubious value.


The fixed value of gold does not exist anymore because it is traded on paper now like a fractional reserve asset. The paper supply is not fixed

Gold is hard to transport and secure. It can easily be confiscated or stolen. We maintain an entire military industrial complex at great expense just to defend our system of property 24/7. A foreign military cannot confiscate bitcoin. The US military is researching it at MIT

Gold is not permissionless or censorship resistant. The US government made it a criminal offense for US citizens to own or trade gold and confiscated it. The government has to give you permission to own and trade it and any future government can change the rules.

Bitcoin improves on gold in many ways. It is math. It is immutable. If you look at the recent panama papers with all the government officials hiding assets off shore you can start to imagine why they don't want such an open and transparent system

Most boomers do not bother to learn like old dogs and new tricks. Their heirs will likely trade in the inheritance for bitcoin


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Gold is not permissionless or censorship resistant. The US government made it a criminal offense for US citizens to own or trade gold and confiscated it. The government has to give you permission to own and trade it and any future government can change the rules.


Just like ... China and bitcoin.



> Most boomers do not bother to learn like old dogs and new tricks. Their heirs will likely trade in the inheritance for bitcoin


Boomers are in their 70's, I'm not really concerned with what they're doing.
Unless you're one of those kids who think anyone over 30 is a boomer, because you don't know how words work.


The reality is blockchain is a new technology, I see use and value, I don't see a reasonable valuation case.
So it's too expensive.
Realistically I fully expect that we will end up using a new chain or sidechain that will be relatively cheap.

Nobody is going to pay 1 BTC for a transaction when someone develops a solution that costs less than a satoshi.

I expect Blockchains are going to become a commodity technology.
The thing with commodities is it's a race to the bottom in terms of valuation, even if you win, you lose.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Just like ... China and bitcoin.


Yup. Nothing changed except demand went up. Like the US banning drugs, alcohol and sex. Good luck enforcing draconian rules



MrMatt said:


> Boomers are in their 70's, I'm not really concerned with what they're doing.
> Unless you're one of those kids who think anyone over 30 is a boomer, because you don't know how words work.


Naw I know exactly how it works.

Everyone younger than you is a snowflake millennial even if you are millennial unbeknownst yourself. Everyone older than you is a clueless boomer especially if they are the forgotten gen x

Boomer refers to people acting like they're 70+



MrMatt said:


> The reality is blockchain is a new technology, I see use and value, I don't see a reasonable valuation case.
> So it's too expensive.
> Realistically I fully expect that we will end up using a new chain or sidechain that will be relatively cheap.


Just because you don't see it doesn't mean it's not there

Different chains and layers will be built for different purposes with interoperable gateways. We manage military networks the same way. The military is all over blockchain tech now. It will solve massive data problems that have grown exponentially out of hand

We spend way more patching up broken systems than you realize.



MrMatt said:


> Nobody is going to pay 1 BTC for a transaction when someone develops a solution that costs less than a satoshi.


People will happily pay $20 for a transaction on the more secure settlement layer with the smallest attack surface. Especially when they're dealing with millions or billions in value.

Faster layers already exist for less important transactions. It costs nothing and you can use whatever currency you desire already. The tech is already here and available in the US but taxes make them pointless for payments and people like paying Visa fees because of silly inflationary airlines points

People focus on payment rails but that misses the vast majority of the use cases. Everyone will be using NFTs for everything from tickets to collectables to proof of ownership



MrMatt said:


> I expect Blockchains are going to become a commodity technology.
> The thing with commodities is it's a race to the bottom in terms of valuation, even if you win, you lose.


The layer one chains are being classified as commodities.

The race to the bottom doesn't work due to the scalability trilemma. Solana went high speed low drag and they get slammed with scams and attacks because the transactions are so cheap and fast. They are too easy to attack and already have been shut down very easily. They get centralized with expensive nodes

A small fee incentivizes decentralized nodes, keeps the treasury funded for sustainability, and disincentivizes spam attacks.


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> James' topic seems to have gone slightly off the rails. But it was a good one.
> 
> Not everyone will take heed, but getting into crypto is not investing. It is *gambling*. You may win, but just like at the casino, you could more than likely lose. If you want to gamble, think about how much of your money you can afford to lose. Then limit your crypto plus other gambling to that.
> 
> On a forum like this, we should be discussing *investments*. I am sure there are other forums where *gambling* can be discussed.
> 
> And, as James suggested, some of the crypto offerings are no doubt *scams*.


The cryptocurrency threads have more views than the stock threads

Only the coronavirus thread competes. I guess nobody wants to chat about bond yields at length

People often tell me stocks are gambling. Of course it's always the people who know nothing about stocks

Yes there are scams. No **** sherlock. There are scams everywhere


----------



## sags

The US Constitution provides for the US Treasury to mint $1 Trillion platinum coins, without any needed approval from the Congress.

The coins would be backed by the assets and full weight of the US government.


----------



## m3s

So basically they add a bunch of zeros to the current $100 platinum coin

In the crypto world they call that a scam shitcoin

Textbook hyperinflation


----------



## sags

It was investigated during the Obama years, but then Trump won and nobody wanted to give him that much power, so it was shelved.

Now that Trump is gone, the concept is being revived.


----------



## MrMatt

The whole "coin" vs bonds debacle is really just a symptom and a distraction.

Basically the US wanted to put more checks on the ability of the government to do stuff.
Limiting government power, through separation of powers, through checks and balances and even outright prohibitions on what the government can do. It's part of their system.

Ideally if the government has to get a lot of different people to agree before it can do something.

I think it's a bad idea to give a single person the ability to spend money however they want, be it Obama, Trump, or Biden. The US has a congress, and it's their job to approve the budget., just like Canada has a parliament to approve the budget.


----------



## sags

The US system is failing and is in gridlock. It will require a complete rethink of the economic and financial system, or it will collapse.


----------



## m3s

Andrew Yang is a huge proponent of Bitcoin @sags 

Petrodollar is a clever US policy as it let's them print the world reserve currency while inflation is dampened by the world's demand for oil and petrodollars to buy it. The first to spend printed money benefits so the US gets cheap imports and everyone else gets inflation

Andrew Yang would probably need better security than Hussein, Gaddafi and Kennedy to change that


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The US system is failing and is in gridlock. It will require a complete rethink of the economic and financial system, or it will collapse.


The gridlock is intentional.
Their system is fundamentally designed to LIMIT the power of the government.

One of the ways is to limit how much they borrow. They can't borrow more unless the elected representatives say they can.
Lets be hones, if they can't convince a majority of elected representatives (only a few hundred people) that they need to borrow more, maybe they shouldn't borrow more?


Lets make his simple.
A married couple has a joint account, they could have 2 options
One to sign, or Both to sign.

If it is one to sign, either person can take out and spend money, which gives a lot of freedom, but also exposes them to risk if one makes a bad decision.
If it is Both to sign, they need to agree, it's a bit harder to spend money, but it also reduces the chances that they'll make a mistake.

My household runs under the both to sign concept, we simply don't make big purchases, or take on significant debt without agreeing. I don't think our marriage would last if one of us was constantly spending us into ever increasing debt.
I think it's a good idea that the US has formalized this.


----------



## m3s

In this case the wife already spent the money without any plan

The discussion at this point is whether they are gonna find a dubious way to pay it or just divorce and claim bankruptcy

Are they just gonna start printing fake money in the basement?


----------



## kcowan

MrMatt said:


> I think it's a bad idea to give a single person the ability to spend money however they want, be it Obama, Trump, or Biden. The US has a congress, and it's their job to approve the budget., just like Canada has a parliament to approve the budget.


US has four levels: President, Congress, Senate and Treasury (for spending limit)

Canada has one: Prime Minister. Parliament can vote no confidence.


----------



## OneSeat

One of the reasons people don't understand budgets, expenditure etc is that they simply don't understand the numbers, and of course other people take advantage of that.

Take the US position, remove 8 digits and make it personal -

Personal income................................................$21,700
Money spent...................................................... $38,200
New debt on the credit card...................... $16,500
Unpaid balance on credit card................ $192,710
Spending cuts so far...................................................$385


----------



## agent99

kcowan said:


> US has four levels: President, Congress, Senate and Treasury (for spending limit)
> 
> Canada has one: Prime Minister. Parliament can vote no confidence.


Somewhere I read that ideal team size for decision making is three. Provided two of team are absent!


----------



## MrMatt

agent99 said:


> Somewhere I read that ideal team size for decision making is three. Provided two of team are absent!


Exactly, that's why I'd like to have at least four people agree.
The problem isn't that the government isn't doing enough, it's that they're doing too much. They're trying all this fancy stuff, but forgetting their basic responsibilities.


----------



## m3s

NASDAQ just approved a BTC futures ETF

Tether settled with the CFTC for a $41M fine. Tether USDT backing was/is a legit concern

Sen Cynthia Lummis for President 2024


----------



## Thal81

Nice, we're gonna be trading derivative products of fake currencies now, what could go wrong?


----------



## sags

A recent bitcoin purchase of over a billion dollars took place using tether as payment, but the tether was borrowed so there was no USD fund transfer.

Buying magic internet money with borrowed magic internet money.......sweet.

The likely scenario is to sell the bitcoins for USD, default on the loan, and walking away with truck loads of cash from the rubes.

The legacy financiers are now in charge and have begun the process of shearing the sheep.


----------



## sags

This is the kind of stuff that people are bidding on........$105,000 USD is the current bid..

Only 3 days left.....hurry before you miss out.

Change a few pixels and get a sweet payday. Give him a pair of glasses and....oh wait, m3s already created one worth at least that much.









Heritage Auctions Search, 2021 October 19 CryptoPunk 6503 An NFT Auction 19151 [3172 793 794 792 2088 4294939294]


America's Auction House



fineart.ha.com


----------



## sags

There is crazy everywhere.......from crypto to collectibles of all kinds.

All it tells me is that a lot of this stuff is going to collapse and go poof......as it has in the past.

It also tells me that rising prices doesn't mean it has any intrinsic value.

Check this out for a 6,000,000 % return on capital.

_Packs originally cost five cents, a penny a card. Condition rarity of this card elevates that value by an estimated six million times._









1961 Fleer Oscar Robertson Rookie #36 PSA Mint 9. It's difficult from a present- | Heritage Auctions


World's Largest Collectibles Auctioneer



sports.ha.com


----------



## m3s

The NFT craze blows my mind as well. Basically there are people sitting on 1000x gains with nothing better to spend it on

I run a node that earns fees to secure trillions in exchange over the part year. You can laugh all you want but there are so many ways to profit here

I keep getting airdrops just for using DeFi. There are incentive programs everywhere. Magic internet money that converts to cold hard cash sags


----------



## sags

I am not laughing at what you are doing. You are one of the smart ones profiting from it all.

It is too complicated for me and most other people, so you have an excellent opportunity to cash in on your expertise.

During the gold rush it wasn't the miners trudging up the mountain and digging the ground up looking for gold who made all the money.

It was the guys selling them shovels and pick axes.


----------



## james4beach

Thal81 said:


> Nice, we're gonna be trading derivative products of fake currencies now, what could go wrong?


All of this is the inevitable outcome of a super long bull market that has failed to (yet) flush out the ridiculous / scams / ponzis.

Consider for example that the dot com craze only lasted about 7 years, from 1993-2000. In just 7 years, plenty of ridiculous and crooked schemes emerged. Then it all got flushed out when the bear market ended the party.

But now, we're 12 years and counting into an extended bull market cycle. Already this is 50% to 70% longer than the insane dot com era. So various con men, charlatans, bull**** artists, and the gang who joins them (including regular joes, but also banks and large investors) have all been rolling along for 12 years.

Market history shows us that it's the bear market event, the collapse, which FLUSHES out all the stupidity.

This just hasn't happened yet. Any time the market has gotten close to the end, the central banks injected more cocaine into the party.

And so the stupidity and delusional beliefs that *always* accompany any bull market, continue, and I think that's why we're seeing so much crazy stuff happening in the last couple of years. That includes the crypto koinz and the ridiculous ecosystem which has developed around them.

If you observe the behaviours of crypto koin speculators, and compare them to people who got wrapped up in the dot com stocks and daytrading, you'll see there are very similar mentalities at play. In my opinion, the young men (mostly millennials) who gamble in crypto koinz today will eventually suffer the same fate as the Gen X men who lost everything in dot com stocks.

Millennials beware... Gen X tech stock gamblers got the living sh*t kicked out of them.


----------



## m3s

Didn't you buy crypto at the very peak of the last bull run? I encouraged people to look at crypto during the years of lull. Now is not the time

The last bull run flushed out all the ICOs. This time we have NFTs, meme coins and "centralized" coins to flush out. We also have crack cocaine monetary policies to juice the madness. There is always leverage to flush out after a run up. You cheer on 20% dips as crashes but they were not. You completely missed the entire cycle

BTC has followed logarithmic regression for over 10 years. It follows a stock to flow model better than commodities (the supply is mathematically programmed and the demand is increasing) There are years between the blow off tops to accumulate crypto and make gains. DCA in between the cycle tops.. don't YOLO in now when it's hot

If you think BTC and ETH are going away anytime soon I feel bad for you son. Yes it will go down again.. that's when you should buy


----------



## MrBlackhill

From $8000 to $5.7B in about a year.

Good luck cashing out your paper billions though.









A crypto wallet shows an investor made an $8,000 shiba inu coin purchase last year. Today, it is worth $5.7 billion.


Shiba inu coin is up more than 7 million percent since its debut in August 2020, with the token now the ninth most valuable cryptocurrency.




markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## KaeJS

MrBlackhill said:


> From $8000 to $5.7B in about a year.
> 
> Good luck cashing out your paper billions though.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A crypto wallet shows an investor made an $8,000 shiba inu coin purchase last year. Today, it is worth $5.7 billion.
> 
> 
> Shiba inu coin is up more than 7 million percent since its debut in August 2020, with the token now the ninth most valuable cryptocurrency.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> markets.businessinsider.com


What do you mean by good luck?
It's quite easy.


----------



## MrBlackhill

KaeJS said:


> What do you mean by good luck?
> It's quite easy.


The price will tank from trying to sell 1/6th of its market cap.


----------



## m3s

SHIB INU has nearly $10B more volume than Ethereum today!..

It's an ERC-20 token that requires the ethereum network to function. It's currently the 2nd highest Ethereum fee 2nd only to Uniswap decentralized exchange which is used to swap ETH for SHIB

Thank you SHIB for all the fees I enjoy collecting by validating your ethereum network transactions


----------



## sags

Keep up the good work M3s.


----------



## sags

So I am assuming people are buying this coin because it is so cheap. Likely a lot of people with little money buying a small quantity and hoping to get rich.

The way to get rich.......is what this guy did and buy trillions of them, and hope for the best.

This is the revealing part to me.......you can buy a bunch of the coins for $100 and dream of great riches.

It is like penny stocks on steroids. I used to invest in penny stock and the excitement of checking the value every day and dreaming "what if" scenarios is great fun and about the only reason to do it.

The guy has "earned" $6 billion in wealth for a coin that still isn't anywhere near worth a penny each...

_About the time of the investor's $8,000 purchase, shiba inu coins were trading at about $0.000000000189. Today, the cryptocurrency is trading at about $0.00007941, which represents a swift 14-month gain of more than 7 million percent. _


----------



## KaeJS

MrBlackhill said:


> The price will tank from trying to sell 1/6th of its market cap.


If he sells everything at the same time.
Which you obviously would not do.


----------



## m3s

I was on a night off between night shifts and traded SHIB like a degenerate once

I had nothing else to do but watch the SHIB chart. If I remember I bought like .00001500 and traded in and out to like .00003000 and fell asleep mostly sold out of it. I woke up it was like .00003400 and I knew I had to sell but fell asleep and managed to get out around .00002700 when I woke up again. That was enough gambling for me I never day/night trade. Crazy times

People are buying it because they think it's cheap compared to BTC. Its market cap is now $36B... it's not so cheap


----------



## MrBlackhill

KaeJS said:


> If he sells everything at the same time.
> Which you obviously would not do.


And since he won't sell everything at the same time, the price can drop -99.99% between now and when he sells more so he won't be billionaire anymore. If such thing can do +85,000,000% in less than 2 years, it can also do -99.99% in a few months. That's why he's a paper billionaire.


----------



## m3s

The ETH-SHIB liquidity pool is yielding +950% right now on UNISWAP V2

Followed by ETH-FLOKI +350% and all the other DOG-branded-ETH liquidity pool pairs. That's what people are earning from the 0.3% fee on Uniswap for providing the pair for liquidity. $315k USD fees to swap SHIB over 24hrs on UNISWAP (not including V3 and V1 or all the other exchanges)

The SHIB paper billionaire could swap half into ETH and make a killing again on the ETH-SHIB exchange fees with this volume

I don't recommend this because the fees are so crazy high and unpredictable. I found the L2 protocols like AVAX or Arbitrum (beta) pretty good. AVAX had an early bridge airdrop and still has millions in incentives for liquidity providers


----------



## m3s

Now DOGE is up 25% and ETH 7%

This is all normal right? How much longer can the bubble go?

BTC has to at least hit $100k right


----------



## m3s




----------



## MrBlackhill

Something makes no sense with that story of $8000 turned into $5.7B... that would also mean that anyone who just bought $100 of SHIB a year ago and held it is now a multimillionaire. Who are they? Is this really happening? Makes no sense. Scam...


----------



## m3s

Half of the SHIB tokens were sent to Vitalik's old ethereum wallet. He eventually gave 50T SHIB to India who banned crypto and the rest to a dead wallet

He said it was on an air gapped laptop in Canada which he couldn't get to due to covid restrictions at the time


----------



## sags

A.. Can you sell SHIB for fiat on any exchange ?

B. Can you "buy" other coins with SHIB on any exchange ?

C. Can you "buy" coins like bitcoin that can be converted using either A or B above ?

If so, I would think the guy could inject say 3% more liquidity into the SHIB market (not 3% of his stash) and not affect the price much.

It would take a long time to extract all that fiat.........but not a bad way to make extra cash while you can.


----------



## m3s

Coinbase and Binance have USD, EUR, AUD pairs. Coinbase was selective of the coins they list until Robinhood started making all their money on meme coins

SHIB is mostly traded with stablecoins and ETH. I see a BTC-SHIB pair on 1 exchange I've never heard of. Most crypto is traded with USD, stablecoins or ETH now

SHIB had more volume than ETH today. Only BTC and USDT had more volume. So you could dump a lot on days like today but I doubt it lasts


----------



## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Something makes no sense with that story of $8000 turned into $5.7B... that would also mean that anyone who just bought $100 of SHIB a year ago and held it is now a multimillionaire. Who are they? Is this really happening? Makes no sense. Scam...


It's a scam.

The guys on Youtube talking about how they become millionaires in it are also scam artists. It's all part of the pump job.


----------



## sags

Ya......but the money is real if they can cash out before the crash.


----------



## sags

My son texted me yesterday saying he should have bought Doge coins. Dad.......they are up 175% he says.

He knows nothing about investing and he gets bored when I try to explain buying stocks, ETFs etc to him.

He wants to buy coins and get rich quick. I wouldn't be surprised if he gives it a go, but he is bound to lose because he knows nothing about it.

What m3s is doing is so far above our son's understanding that it is in clouds.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> My son texted me yesterday saying he should have bought Doge coins. Dad.......they are up 175% he says.
> 
> He knows nothing about investing and he gets bored when I try to explain buying stocks, ETFs etc to him.
> 
> He wants to buy coins and get rich quick. I wouldn't be surprised if he gives it a go, but he is bound to lose because he knows nothing about it.
> 
> What m3s is doing is so far above our son's understanding that it is in clouds.


My kids want to buy utility companies, because they understand how they make money.
They like bank stock dividends.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> My kids want to buy utility companies, because they understand how they make money.
> They like bank stock dividends.


That's impressive


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> That's impressive


It's not hard, if you don't understand how something creates money, why would you invest in it?


----------



## m3s

Canadian BTC miners BITF, HUT and HIVE are blowing up lately. Undervalued compared to the better know US miners even though they were NASDAQ listed awhile ago

Lots of volatility to arbitrage between them too


----------



## m3s

Canada is #4 in BTC mining and could have been 2 or 3. BITF, HUT, HIVE all expanding internationally now instead

What will papa Elon tweet wen BTC hits $69,420 USD?


----------



## m3s

BTC
ETH
ADA
LTC

See it?


----------



## sags

Crypto is going to end the concept of work, eliminate poverty, solve climate change, save whales, recycle nuclear waste.....and that is just the beginning.

Baby boomers and crypto deniers........just doesn't understands.


----------



## m3s

Well the boomers managed to make themselves paper rich by destroying their grandkids future so

Anything is worth a try at this point.


----------



## KaeJS

m3s said:


> Well the boomers managed to make themselves paper rich by destroying their grandkids future so
> 
> Anything is worth a try at this point.


This is the answer that the boomers don't get.

I hate crypto. I think it's completely re.
However, I'm not dumb enough to not invest in it.

The boomers don't understand that there is no hope for the younger generation. The younger generation is just YOLO-Ing because what else are they gonna do?

@m3s You'll understand this:


----------



## m3s




----------



## agent99

MrMatt said:


> My kids want to buy utility companies, because they understand how they make money.
> They like bank stock dividends.


My kids dad agrees with them...


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> This is the answer that the boomers don't get.


I think most people don't "get it".



> I hate crypto. I think it's completely re.
> However, I'm not dumb enough to not invest in it.


Which crypto?

Hoenstly I don't "invest" in something unless I understand how it will generate a positive return.
I think most crypto "investors" are just blindly hoping. IMO it isn't investing.



> The boomers don't understand that there is no hope for the younger generation. The younger generation is just YOLO-Ing because what else are they gonna do?


I think that's the problem, so many young people are sitting here living through the best time in human history saying they have no hope.
The problem isn't that things are so bad, it's that they totally lack perspective on the reality of life.
Many young people think things are bad, and there is no future, and that's just awful.
They should be incredibly grateful to be living in such a wonderful time, there isn't any other time in history that was better, and they don't seem to grasp that.
I think part of the problem is that being unable to comprehend how good they have it, they don't really value society or understand that there are reasons why it is the way it is, and it isn't all some evil plot out to get them.




"back in my day" we had hard problems, so we worked to solve them, just like my parents did.

Well guess what we still have hard problems, so we just have to solve them too.
We'll always have problems, and to be honest, that's a good thing, people don't do well when they don't have a purpose.

So go ahead work on making a positive difference in the world, it will make you feel better.


----------



## kcowan

MrMatt said:


> So go ahead work on making a positive difference in the world, it will make you feel better.


I remember being able to sense when replacing the needle on the turntable would no longer do it and the whole sound cartridge needed replacing. Usually the result of playing too many 78s. And making a radio with a crystal.


----------



## GL from QC

MrMatt said:


> They should be incredibly grateful to be living in such a wonderful time, there isn't any other time in history that was better, and they don't seem to grasp that.


I respectfully disagree.

If I had to pick the golden era in history, I'd go with the second half of 1945 and onward. Sure, people still smoked indoors and cancer research was still in its infancy (it only really took off in the 60s-70s), but on the other hand... The biggest war had just ended - sure, the Cold War was starting up, but there would be no more "hot" wars. (The US had the one in Korea, and then there were almost 10 years of peace.)

Global warming wasn't even on anyone's radar: you could expect your local weather to stay more or less the same as before. There definitely weren't any gigantic, record-setting heatwaves.

My personal favourite: antibiotic-resistant infections were still few and far in between. The first penicillin-resistant bug showed up within 5 years of its invention, I think, and then it was a race between new antibiotics and new bugs. I don't know if anyone else here follows that topic closely, but those things are spreading - now there are TB strains that can shrug off anything we throw at them. At some point, they'll be everywhere... When that happens, we'll be back to the 19th-century standard of care: lie still, drink herbal tea, and think happy thoughts. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There was definitely far less terrorism worldwide. IIRC, the first suicide bombings didn't start happening till the 1980s. And needless to say, there were far fewer mass shootings.

This might be a US-based thing, not Canada-specific (I moved here from the States in early 2019), but back then you could actually pay for college with your summer job, and an uneducated factory worker could buy a house and raise a family on that income...

So to bring that all back to the main topic, I don't think it's correct to say that young people today are living in such a wonderful time... As a value investor who learned from Graham and Buffett, I personally despise the very idea of crypto - but I also understand why so many young people, who don't see any reasonable paths to financial security, decide to YOLO their paycheck into random crypto coins and hope that they catch the next big thing.


----------



## MrMatt

GL from QC said:


> I respectfully disagree.
> 
> If I had to pick the golden era in history, I'd go with the second half of 1945 and onward. Sure, people still smoked indoors and cancer research was still in its infancy (it only really took off in the 60s-70s), but on the other hand... The biggest war had just ended - sure, the Cold War was starting up, but there would be no more "hot" wars. (The US had the one in Korea, and then there were almost 10 years of peace.)


When life expectancy was nearly 2 decades shorter than today?
When it was legal for a man to rape his wife?


A Crime


When segregation was still legal in the US?

yeah "Good Times"

Oh the 70's when the murder rate was 50% higher than today?





Number, rate and percentage changes in rates of homicide victims


Number, rate (per 100,000 population) and percentage changes in rates of homicide victims, Canada, provinces and territories, 1961 to 2021.




www150.statcan.gc.ca









> Global warming wasn't even on anyone's radar: you could expect your local weather to stay more or less the same as before. There definitely weren't any gigantic, record-setting heatwaves.


Ahh ignorance of the pending problem makes it go away? Maybe the deniers are onto something.



> This might be a US-based thing, not Canada-specific (I moved here from the States in early 2019), but back then you could actually pay for college with your summer job, and an uneducated factory worker could buy a house and raise a family on that income...


University is significantly around $6k/yr and no more than $10k/yr across the country, college is even less.
That's 400 hours at minimum wage.


https://www.univcan.ca/universities/facts-and-stats/tuition-fees-by-university/



College is even less at only $2400/yr. Easily to cover working 2-3 days a week at minimum wage, only in the summer, or a part time job during the school year.








Paying for College - College Tuition


College comes with costs. Learn about tuition fees, applying for financial assistance (including OSAP), scholarships and bursaries, how to manage a budget and more at ontariocolleges.ca.



www.ontariocolleges.ca





The housing problem is a government created problem, and it's a real issue that they seem unwilling to fix.



> So to bring that all back to the main topic, I don't think it's correct to say that young people today are living in such a wonderful time... As a value investor who learned from Graham and Buffett, I personally despise the very idea of crypto - but I also understand why so many young people, who don't see any reasonable paths to financial security, decide to YOLO their paycheck into random crypto coins and hope that they catch the next big thing.


I do think it's correct to say that young people today are living in such a wonderful time.
The vast majority of complaints are first world problems.

The only legitimate concern that you raised is the housing market, and that's mostly a problem of government interference.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> I do think it's correct to say that young people today are living in such a wonderful time.


The older we get, the more we tend to say this, and the younger we are, the more we tend to say the opposite.

Things change but the overall isn't better.

We can name so many awful things happening in the 2020s, as we can name so many awful things happening 50 years ago. We can name so many great things happening in the 2020s, as we can name so many great things happening 50 years ago.

Can you imagine that in 2017, 13% of teens of age 12-17 experienced at least major depression episode, compared to 8% back in 2007, which is an increase by 60% in just a decade?


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> The older we get, the more we tend to say this, and the younger we are, the more we tend to say the opposite.
> 
> Things change but the overall isn't better.


Things are objectively better today than they were in the past.
Steven Pinker has written and spoken extensively on this.



> Can you imagine that in 2017, 13% of teens of age 12-17 experienced at least major depression episode, compared to 8% back in 2007, which is an increase by 60% in just a decade?


And this is far higher than in the 1970's when depression wasn't even a diagnosable condition.
The term major depressive disorder (MDD) was first introduced by clinicians in the United States during the 1970s. The condition officially became part of the DSM-III in *1980*.

And it took them even longer to accept that kids could get depression.
"Experts used to think that only adults could get depression. "





Search Results | HealthLink BC







www.healthlinkbc.ca





Again, you're confusing acceptance, detection and reporting of a problem for existence of a problem.
People were depressed, it just wasn't even a disease.
I'd actually argue that it is much better that we are looking for and identifying depression in teens. 

Just like global warming, which existed, but wasn't something they talked about, because they didn't know.

Even now there are problems we have that we don't know about, or people are widely unaware of.

The issue is things are objectively better today, I don't think anyone really wants to return back as short as 20 or 40 years ago.
40 years ago it was legal for a man to rape his wife. 
Can you imagine that? 
When issues that obviously wrong existed, how can you argue things were "better" back then?


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Again, you're confusing acceptance, detection and reporting of a problem for existence of a problem.


I've pointed data about 2007 and 2017.

Then you went all over the place about the 1970s, acceptance, detection and reporting, as if I had said otherwise.

Stick to what I've stated. I stated an increase from 2007 to 2017. And troubling data about 2017, with more than 1 out of 8 teens was diagnosed with depression. Imagine now, after this pandemic.

I sure can't compare data between today and 1970s as you tried wrongfully to put those words in my mouth, but a 60% increase in a decade is definitely worrying, even more considering that the numbers are already high and certainly still increasing.

And that may be due to social media, which didn't exist back in the 1970s.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> I've pointed data about 2007 and 2017.
> 
> Then you went all over the place about the 1970s, acceptance, detection and reporting, as if I had said otherwise.
> 
> Stick to what I've stated. I stated an increase from 2007 to 2017. And troubling data about 2017, with more than 1 out of 8 teens was diagnosed with depression. Imagine now, after this pandemic.
> 
> I sure can't compare data between today and 1970s as you tried wrongfully to put those words in my mouth, but a 60% increase in a decade is definitely worrying, even more considering that the numbers are already high and certainly still increasing.
> 
> And that may be due to social media, which didn't exist back in the 1970s.


So you think things were dramatically better 15 years ago than they were only 5 years ago?

In terms of "best time to live" it should encompass at least a good portion of a human life, not just a handful of years.

Maybe 2007 was better than 2017, maybe not, but we're really splitting hairs there.
Maybe it would better if you were 10 years older today, or things are worse for those who are 10 years younger, but not significantly so. With the current labour shortage things haven't looked this good for young people in decades.


My point remains that even going back only 40 years ago the world was objectively worse for many people. The kids these days who are complaining about how bad they have it aren't even looking back half a lifetime.
I'd have to say for me personally I'm glad to be alive and living today, and there is no other time in history I'd prefer to live. 

Things are for the most part better than they were for the vast majority of people, and there really is no arguing that.


----------



## MrBlackhill

We are trading what we supposedly call "quality of life" in developed countries for actually a "social pressure" which makes our happiness decrease.



> But amid these advances in quality of life across the income scale, average happiness is decreasing in the U.S. The General Social Survey, which has been measuring social trends among Americans every one or two years since 1972, shows a long-term, gradual decline in happiness—and rise in unhappiness—from 1988 to the present.


----------



## KaeJS

MrBlackhill said:


> We are trading what we supposedly call "quality of life" in developed countries for actually a "social pressure" which makes our happiness decrease.


This is the answer.


----------



## Eder

*Canadian Teen Arrested in Crypto Theft Worth $36.5 Million*










Canadian Teen Arrested in Crypto Theft Worth $36.5 Million


A Canadian teenager was arrested for allegedly stealing C$46 million ($36.5 million) worth of cryptocurrency from a U.S. victim, the biggest crypto theft reported from one person, according to police in the city of Hamilton, near Toronto.




www.bloomberg.com


----------



## m3s

@Eder I've been harping on how SIM cards should never be used to secure finances for like 10 years on this forum

It happens to Canadian banks that use SIM cards for 2FA as well. Luckily both crypto and bank transfers can be tracked

All the crypto exchanges I use recommend using real 2FA like Authy or Yubikey. They also use trading password, anti-phising phrases, and additional holds/delays/verifications for large withdrawals etc. Questrade has horrible security by comparison. National Bank is even worse from what I hear. Interactive Brokers at least uses your smart phone app for 2FA - luke warm but still doesn't have as many security options

But as the saying goes "not your keys, no your crypto" Nobody should be trusting a SIM card to protect their crypto


----------



## MrBlackhill

So... What's with the Stock-to-Flow model? https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/
And PlanB's prediction? https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/planb/


----------



## KaeJS

Anyone watching the crypto markets?

Weeeee!

Straight to hell in a handbasket.


----------



## wayward__son

LOL what a wipe out. I'm a big crypto enthusiast and will admit to having been somewhat euphoric at the highs a few weeks ago. It's good to get knocked down once in a while.


----------



## Freedom2022

I am at middle age. When I was young, my parents and their generation said that my generation was fortunate and we supposed to study and work harder like they were. I thought my generation (generation X) was less fortunate to go through at least two recessions. Fast forward, now I am on my parent's shoes and my kids are on my shoes.

For me, I am just be grateful with all the blessings and hope no more wars. Peace.

As an investor, nothing wrong to invest in bitcoin.
All governments keep printing money. Not much new jobs are created. Robots and AI take over more jobs.
We think and hope all central banks know what they are doing.
They said inflation is in "transitory". I agreed but I said to myself it was in transit to go higher and higher.
Now, they say inflation is higher than expected. I say we knew that already.
Bitcoin is a hedge when all hell break loose and central bankers don't know what to do anymore.


----------



## MrMatt

Freedom2022 said:


> I am at middle age. When I was young, my parents and their generation said that my generation was fortunate and we supposed to study and work harder like they were. I thought my generation (generation X) was less fortunate to go through at least two recessions. Fast forward, now I am on my parent's shoes and my kids are on my shoes.
> 
> For me, I am just be grateful with all the blessings and hope no more wars. Peace.


The last few decades have been some of the most peaceful ones in history.



> As an investor, nothing wrong to invest in bitcoin.


Sure there is, no actual value.



> All governments keep printing money. Not much new jobs are created. Robots and AI take over more jobs.
> We think and hope all central banks know what they are doing.


And global poverty keeps falling.



> They said inflation is in "transitory". I agreed but I said to myself it was in transit to go higher and higher.
> Now, they say inflation is higher than expected. I say we knew that already.


They're lying/misleading.
Sure 4-20% inflation is transitory, but once prices jump up we're still left with the effects.
I don't think it's transitory though.

Also remember more government policy is linked to inflation, Cost of living allowances, minimum wage etc. The very things that are pushing inflation higher will be hiked, due to high inflation. It's a feedback loop.
A massive amount of personal income is government money, through transfers (ie welfare), pensions, or direct employment. When family incomes are linked to inflation, and inflation spikes, its' going to take a long time for the ripples to fade.



> Bitcoin is a hedge when all hell break loose and central bankers don't know what to do anymore.


Why? I still don't get the valuation case for bitcoin. Even m3s finally admitted that there isn't one, it's just speculation.


----------



## AltaRed

MrMatt said:


> They're lying/misleading.
> Sure 4-20% inflation is transitory, but once prices jump up we're still left with the effects.
> I don't think it's transitory though.
> 
> Also remember more government policy is linked to inflation, Cost of living allowances, minimum wage etc. The very things that are pushing inflation higher will be hiked, due to high inflation. It's a feedback loop.
> A massive amount of personal income is government money, through transfers (ie welfare), pensions, or direct employment. When family incomes are linked to inflation, and inflation spikes, its' going to take a long time for the ripples to fade.


That is when inflation becomes structural, not transitory. Central bankers are in fact very cognizant (wary) of structural inflation. Once it becomes entrenched in algorithms, it usually needs 'tough love' to break the circle. I think they are watching where inflation is occurring and I think they are watching the mood of consumers and the job market and will act sooner rather than later for the specific reasons you have mentioned.

Once Powell is no longer distracted by his re-nomination, I think he will begin to act. I am also watching Freeland to see if she will renew/endorse a 5 year continuation of last decade of Bank of Canada objectives as it currently stands OR whether she will endorse a slightly new direction, the options of which were floated by BoC this past year. Not that BoC has any real influence in OECD monetary policy but it will impact our own GDP, CPI and loonie strength.

I expect 'tougher love' sooner rather than later, e.g. the Spring rather than Summer 2022 if the next 3 months of YOY inflation doesn't lose some momentum, and I expect Powell to more quickly end QE with accelerated taper.

And on the subject of this thread, I am in the camp that crypto has no foundation on which to form any valuation. It is a magic carpet ride. Some winners and many hard landings.


----------



## sags

Watch the bitcoin dump live ..........down to $49,000 and falling.

One bitcoin whale dropped over $2 billion today alone and his worth has drropped from $19 billion to $13 billion in a couple of days.

People are getting millions of dollars in bitcoin long positions liquidated on margin calls.

Knock, knock........reality is at the door.



Bitcoin Ticker - Tick by tick - Real time updates


----------



## m3s

You must be new here sags. BTC just crashed all the way back to October

By the way inflation is not good for GICs. You need to understand this.

The whales trigger these liquidations on a regular basis.


----------



## sags

It can't be good for lenders who hold crypto as collateral for loans though.

People who bought crypto on margin are feeling the pain......$300 million worth I read.

Also wouldn't be good for any retailer dumb enough to take crypto as payment or people who take crypto for wages.

Here you go.......your sales or wages minus the 30% drop in value........sorry about that.

But wait......these are things that real world finance thinks about, not in the magical world of free internet money.


----------



## m3s

Zoom out. BTC is up over 150% this year. Ethereum and others are up far more

Learn what inflation is for your own benefit. Your GICs lost 30% in real value

I'm tired of repeating the basics sags. I never block people but you're exhausting


----------



## KaeJS

Crypto is definitely ridiculous. I own some. Probably more than I feel comfortable owning. But I own for the simple reason that people DO want this and the tech IS good.

I have said it before on this forum and I'll say it again. I would never eat McDonald's. McDonald's makes no sense to me. It is a busy restaurant with sh!thead employees, annoying kids, always busy, long lineups, horrible food, expensive prices for what you get... And most of the burgers don't even have a f(u)cking tomato.

But for whatever reason... People like McDonald's. They do go there. It is a good investment. So, that is why I own crypto. Sometimes it's not about HOW YOU FEEL... but more about HOW OTHER PEOPLE FEEL. In all actuality, this is the case more often than not. I would love nothing more than for all crypto to be worth $0 overnight. But it's just not going to happen.

On the other hand, I have to agree with m3s...
GICs are a waste. I'd rather buy a Quarter Pounder with my money than invest it into a GIC.


----------



## james4beach

I'm still pretty sure all this crypto stuff (bitcoins, other coins) are just a giant scam. It's definitely developed a life of its own, and there's a speculative mania, but that doesn't mean it will have long term legitimacy or staying power.

Most of the people interested in this stuff are pretty young, so it remains to be seen if they can stick with the excitement and remain zealous for 20+ years. Personally I doubt it. Young people will get tired of this in a handful of years and move onto the next hype & scam.

The mainstream, including big companies, now "talk the talk" because young people want to hear it. *Business is about giving your customer what they want*. They want bitcoins? You suck up to them and talk bitcoins.

The crypto stuff is probably the largest financial bubble in world history.


----------



## KaeJS

Crypto has been around for a decade.
It's not going anywhere.

Also, gold is useless (I have never owned gold and I refuse to) but still... Here we are... In 2022 almost and people still want to buy gold. They want to buy it so much that they will even buy contract gold through IOU's instead of the actual bullion...

Gold is acceptable, but it is just as much bullsh!t as crypto is lol.


----------



## sags

Cash is king......money talks and bullshit walks.

Crypto drops 30% in a matter of hours and HODLERs are worried about GICs losing purchasing power to inflation over decades......too funny.


----------



## marina628

All my ties to Bitcoin have been gambling related ,lots of people I know lived in countries that gambling was illegal or they did not want to pay the taxes so they went to bitcoin. As i said years ago my first time with bitcoin i bought some for 3 bux a pop to play a game of poker lol .Not many here got bitcoin for 3 bux I bet and i gambled them but I have been in for the 100 point ,the $500 point the $1000 i sold most at $4400 thinking wow that was a good run and bought them back at $10000 .I get paid in bitcoin cause i still gamble at these places but I have 4 coins ,one for me ,hubby and 1 each for my kids that ill never sell. To me crypto is still a form of gambling and always will be .


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> Also, gold is useless (I have never owned gold and I refuse to) but still...


I'd bet you have gold, or have in the past, you just didn't know it.
It's widely used in electronics.

One of the big concerns for silver is the use in solar panels, which could dramatically alter the demand.


----------



## marina628

sags said:


> Cash is king......money talks and bullshit walks.
> 
> Crypto drops 30% in a matter of hours and HODLERs are worried about GICs losing purchasing power to inflation over decades......too funny.


The last bond I purchased was in 2009 all in stocks .


----------



## cainvest

sags said:


> Crypto drops 30% in a matter of hours and HODLERs are worried about GICs losing purchasing power to inflation over decades......too funny.


If it just dropped 30% nows your time to buy in sags and get some of that crypto-gravy profits!


----------



## wayward__son

I got into Bitcoin as a hobbyist years ago. I enjoyed learning about elliptic curve cryptography, and was fascinated by the way Bitcoin proposes a solution to the Byzantine general's problem using a proof of work consensus mechanism. I came for the tech, stayed for the wealth. To me it's a thing of beauty and I love it. 

From an investment perspective, I hold it as an easy play on what I think are two massive, secular trends -- multi-polar world and growing online communities. There are now (known) Bitcoin nodes in 80+ countries. This is a global adoption trend that I don't see stopping. I know far less about Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies but feel very comfortable saying some will accrue enormous value (and yes, many more are scams and will go to zero). Sothebys fielding bids in ETH last month was interesting. 

The modern history of publicly tradable joint stock company securities starts around the 1600s. It's a 400 year old technology for capital allocation. Bonds are older. Market indexes and ETFs are much younger. There is no rule of nature that says the existing conventional capital stack will be the only way to finance productive activity forever. Change can come fast -- best to keep your head on swivel.


----------



## KaeJS

MrMatt said:


> I'd bet you have gold, or have in the past, you just didn't know it.
> It's widely used in electronics.


This is different than buying it for investment purposes and I think you know that lol.

You knew what I meant.


----------



## AltaRed

I've never knowingly owned gold for investment purposes (unknown holdings in mutual funds or ETFs excepted) nor would I own crypto knowingly either. I don't need to do so in my 70s to be comfortable for my remaining days. Can't say whether I'd dabble or not if I was early in my investing life cycle. Perhaps with 5% of my money. I did own a dotcom fund for a short period of time in 1998-1999 but got out before I crossed the 'loss' line on the way down. That is as close as I ever got to speculation.


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> This is different than buying it for investment purposes and I think you know that lol.
> 
> You knew what I meant.


I know what you said, not what you meant.
Apparently there is a huge gulf.

The reality is gold is useful, we all use it every day. There is a real demonstrated value to gold.

I haven't purchased gold the commodity for investment purposes, because I don't think market timing is a good strategy.

The fact that gold provides a real value, something that everyday people are buying and paying for is an important difference between gold and cryptocurrencies. It's providing a cost effective solution to a real problem that all of us have.

Cryptocurrencies don't do that yet. Also we're not sure how to price the value (if any) that they do provide.

As clumsy as it is, we do have a clear agreed value for gold. If you buy it for investment purposes, inflation hedge, because it looks pretty or so your cell phone works doesn't matter.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Cash is king......money talks and bullshit walks.
> 
> Crypto drops 30% in a matter of hours and HODLERs are worried about GICs losing purchasing power to inflation over decades......too funny.


Inflation is not good for GICs


----------



## sags

cainvest said:


> If it just dropped 30% nows your time to buy in sags and get some of that crypto-gravy profits!


Easy money..,,..just buy crypto and a mirror so I can watch myself getting rich.


----------



## sags

m3s said:


> Inflation is not good for GICs


Not good for crypto either. A loss of 30% in asset value plus the loss of purchasing power.....ouch.....double ouch.

Crypto investors are letting the inflation tail wag the dog.


----------



## m3s

Please stop using words you don't understand

A few days ago you said inflation was good for GICs

You should read more and type less


----------



## sags

I said cost of living increases and higher interest were good for us because price inflation had little effect on us.

You can't understand how that could possibly be true.


----------



## m3s




----------



## sags

_“The lack of effective surveillance creates a substantial risk for fraud, money laundering, sanctions evasions and other criminal activity within these markets.” _









DeFi — the ‘Wild West’ of crypto — is next on regulators’ hit list


In the fast-growing world of decentralized finance, some services promise huge returns. Regulators are getting worried.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## m3s

What else is new sags the Panama papers uncovered all kinds of fraud, money laundering, sanctions evasions and other criminals activity and CNBC says nothing

Why do boomers insist on consuming the boomer elite MSM for their propaganda fix? sags you found the internet now you just need to find a better source

DeFi leaves so much public metadeta that the hacks this year ended up returning the funds lol. Experts will have no issue tracking DeFi at all compared to fiat


----------



## wayward__son

AltaRed said:


> That is when inflation becomes structural, not transitory. Central bankers are in fact very cognizant (wary) of structural inflation. Once it becomes entrenched in algorithms, it usually needs 'tough love' to break the circle. I think they are watching where inflation is occurring and I think they are watching the mood of consumers and the job market and will act sooner rather than later for the specific reasons you have mentioned.
> 
> Once Powell is no longer distracted by his re-nomination, I think he will begin to act. I am also watching Freeland to see if she will renew/endorse a 5 year continuation of last decade of Bank of Canada objectives as it currently stands OR whether she will endorse a slightly new direction, the options of which were floated by BoC this past year. Not that BoC has any real influence in OECD monetary policy but it will impact our own GDP, CPI and loonie strength.
> 
> I expect 'tougher love' sooner rather than later, e.g. the Spring rather than Summer 2022 if the next 3 months of YOY inflation doesn't lose some momentum, and I expect Powell to more quickly end QE with accelerated taper.


Realistically how far do you think the fed would be able to take this before things start breaking and we get Powell Pivot 2.0? US federal debt to GDP is over 100%, we are likely heading into economic slowdown and rate hikes won't normalize supply chains anyway. Volatility into late 2018 (credit markets seizing up, S&P dump) forced a pivot, and markets and the US fiscal situation seem far more fragile now than then. Feels like the fed is walking a tightrope between politically problematic inflation and a deflationary death spiral.


----------



## sags

__





Cryptocurrency Crime and Anti-Money Laundering Report, August 2021


Jump To: Executive Summary DeFi-Related Crime Continues to Define Major Hacks and Fraud in 2021 Ransom Where? Major Thefts, Scams, and Frauds Enforcement Actions Terrorism Financing and Cryptocurrency Travel Rule Compliance Updates FATF Review of Cryptocurrency AML Compliance Globally Changes in...




ciphertrace.com


----------



## m3s

wayward__son said:


> Realistically how far do you think the fed would be able to take this before things start breaking and we get Powell Pivot 2.0? US federal debt to GDP is over 100%, we are likely heading into economic slowdown and rate hikes won't normalize supply chains anyway. Volatility into late 2018 (credit markets seizing up, S&P dump) forced a pivot, and markets and the US fiscal situation seem far more fragile now than then. Feels like the fed is walking a tightrope between politically problematic inflation and a deflationary death spiral.


Exactly

It's also very easy for people who understand this and don't want rate hikes to force them to reverse. The Taper Tantrum caused JPow to reverse course so why wouldn't the markets force him to reverse again. We got rock bottom rates and we're addicted like crack now. I've seen this coming for a long time but it's playing out faster than I ever expected thanks to covid

Who coined Powel Pivot 2.0 I like it


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cryptocurrency Crime and Anti-Money Laundering Report, August 2021
> 
> 
> Jump To: Executive Summary DeFi-Related Crime Continues to Define Major Hacks and Fraud in 2021 Ransom Where? Major Thefts, Scams, and Frauds Enforcement Actions Terrorism Financing and Cryptocurrency Travel Rule Compliance Updates FATF Review of Cryptocurrency AML Compliance Globally Changes in...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ciphertrace.com


That's nice but there's a lot more to it and it's not worth explaining to you.

DeFi will be much easier to control and track as it develops than the current system that has far more fraud even though it is mature

Most of DeFi is in beta and even the hacks often just return the funds for a smaller reward because they know it's all public ledger


----------



## AltaRed

wayward__son said:


> Realistically how far do you think the fed would be able to take this before things start breaking and we get Powell Pivot 2.0? US federal debt to GDP is over 100%, we are likely heading into economic slowdown and rate hikes won't normalize supply chains anyway. Volatility into late 2018 (credit markets seizing up, S&P dump) forced a pivot, and markets and the US fiscal situation seem far more fragile now than then. Feels like the fed is walking a tightrope between politically problematic inflation and a deflationary death spiral.


The US Federal Reserve already started reducing its bond buying program about a month ago. The market has already accepted it. The question is how much acceleration might be needed from the current plan. I am guessing it could double or triple the reduction without market heartburn and start rate increases in the Spring instead of Summer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/federal-reserve-qe-bonds-1.6235777


----------



## m3s




----------



## m3s

Joe Biden’s Government is Mining Bitcoin, Says White House Adviser


----------



## sags

Crypto guy.........inflation reduces the purchasing power of a dollar to buy things.

Fiat guy..............yea, that is why you get paid more dollars to buy things.

Crypto guy.........oh, I didn't think of that.


----------



## m3s

Trust me sags inflation is not good for GICs

If you think people get paid more to cover the inflation I want to know who ties your shoes in the morning


----------



## sags

Wages in Canada are rising, with some sectors faster than others.

_Average weekly earnings of non-farm payroll employees in Canada rose 2.6 percent year-on-year to CAD 1,137 in September of 2021 and little changed from the previous month. It was the fourth straight month of increases in average weekly earnings and at the steepest pace since March. *The largest gains were seen in management of companies and enterprises (16.1 percent to CAD 1,590); mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (10.8 percent to CAD 2,242); information and cultural industries (8.5 percent to CAD 1,658) and accommodation and food services (7.8 percent to CAD 462).* Across Canadian provinces, earnings rose the most in British Colombia (4 percent to CAD 1,137), Manitoba (3.8 percent to CAD 1,028) and Newfoundland and Labrador (3.4 percent to CAD 1,132)._






Canada Average Weekly Earnings YoY - November 2022 Data - 1992-2021 Historical


Average weekly earnings of non-farm payroll employees in Canada rose by 3.4% year-on-year to CAD 1,171.60 in October of 2022, continuing their growth since June 2021. It was the 17th straight month of growth in average weekly earnings, with 17 of the 20 sectors reporting gains. The...




tradingeconomics.com


----------



## m3s

I thought you said inflation was transitory? How much are pensions going up?

Income reacts to inflation not the other way around. Fiat is great for spending and trash to hold


----------



## m3s

Boomers just can't cope


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1467216871846027274


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> Wages in Canada are rising, with some sectors faster than others.
> 
> _Average weekly earnings of non-farm payroll employees in Canada rose 2.6 percent year-on-year to CAD 1,137 in September of 2021 and little changed from the previous month. It was the fourth straight month of increases in average weekly earnings and at the steepest pace since March. *The largest gains were seen in management of companies and enterprises (16.1 percent to CAD 1,590); mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (10.8 percent to CAD 2,242); information and cultural industries (8.5 percent to CAD 1,658) and accommodation and food services (7.8 percent to CAD 462).* Across Canadian provinces, earnings rose the most in British Colombia (4 percent to CAD 1,137), Manitoba (3.8 percent to CAD 1,028) and Newfoundland and Labrador (3.4 percent to CAD 1,132)._
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada Average Weekly Earnings YoY - November 2022 Data - 1992-2021 Historical
> 
> 
> Average weekly earnings of non-farm payroll employees in Canada rose by 3.4% year-on-year to CAD 1,171.60 in October of 2022, continuing their growth since June 2021. It was the 17th straight month of growth in average weekly earnings, with 17 of the 20 sectors reporting gains. The...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tradingeconomics.com


2.6%?

Lmao. Can't even wipe your (a)ss with an extra square for that.


----------



## londoncalling

I hate to state the obvious but some times it needs to be said.

Real wage/earnings growth is what actually increases one's income level. I one gets a 2.6% pay raise or a 2.6 return on their investment but their cost of living increases by more than 2.6% they are worse off than they were previously. Make more, spend less or preferably both that way you can splurge for the extra square.


----------



## sags

What if a person gets a 2.6% increase in their income and inflation price increases their actual costs less than 2.6 % ?


----------



## m3s

Your personal costs are anecdotal at this point.

People renewing contracts and making bigger purchases might be getting hit harder today but that just means you are sheltered for some time. Those existing locked in costs are also used to make inflation look much lower on average than it really is. New rental agreements are much higher than existing rental agreement for example

Some people are just sheltered from inflation for some time but it's obviously not transitory.


----------



## sags

Who is keeping all the food delivery businesses (Uber Eats, Skip the Dishes) in business ?

Who is buying all the $70 baseball caps ? Who is sitting in lineups at all the fast food places ?

Who is shopping at grocery stores where prices are a lot higher than in other stores ?

If 4% inflation drives people over the financial cliff.......I think they already had problems with choices they make.


----------



## sags

Bitcoin is making a comeback. It is back to $52,000 US.

As an investment though, it pales in comparison to Metaverse coins, which are up 37,000% in the past year.

If you bought $10,000 worth, you would now be a multi-billionaire.





__





Bloomberg - Are you a robot?






www.bloomberg.com


----------



## m3s

We live in easy monetary times sags. The money printer is still running at full speed to keep the party going

Anyone with assets is suddenly richer than ever. The crack cocaine low interest rates and free money is flowing. People don't understand what debasement is yet. Reality has not set in

I'm looking forward to the hangover and you are looking at the drunken fest thinking it will last forever


----------



## sags

The "virtual" property next to Snoop Dog's "virtual" estate, sold for $450,000 US.

As they say in real estate.......location, location, location.









Virtual Land Adjacent to Snoop Dogg's Sandbox Estate Sells for $450K in Ethereum – Blockchain Bitcoin News


So far, the plot of land called “Wave 1 - 3x3 Estate S [12,-75]” sold for 71,000 SAND or roughly $450K at the time of settlement.




news.bitcoin.com


----------



## m3s

That's old news. The way crypto works it will probably go flat or crash relative to other crypto when it launches

Mostly just hype on Zuckerberg trying to copy the crypto metaverse. He already failed to launch his own cryptocurrency. Nobody wants FB crypto

I'm picking up free airdrops and distributions almost every day now. Crypto twitter is like getting paid to try new blockchain tech instead of consuming boomer TV ads

For example I got lots of free metaverse tokens just for trying it out. The games are crap but I got thousands in free loot


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Cryptocurrencies are getting out of control:
> 
> 27 million in circulation
> 25% minted in last six months
> one node
> 1% of holders own 30%
> unlimited supply cap
> controlled by a single entity


You mean the US dollar? What a sh!tcoin


----------



## sags

The disrupters got disrupted......coinbase and other crypto run off Amazon cloud servers and they are down.

The whole crypto world is dependent on legacy internet companies.....too funny.

Want to shut down crypto.......just flip the switch.


----------



## m3s

Coinbase is a centralized exchange.. it's not a blockchain. It goes down all the time

My ethereum node is still running fine in my house and there are hundreds of thousands of other nodes running around the world

That's kinda the point sags


----------



## sags

Crypto..........the future of global finance.

Crypto's largest exchange.......










Coinbase customers demand refunds over GYEN stablecoin glitch


Customers of Coinbase are demanding the cryptocurrency platform refund their losses after the company froze accounts in connection with a glitch trading GYEN.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## m3s

You realize what CNBC is sags? Only boomers watch that

Again Coinbase is a centralized exchange.


----------



## sags

Yea, that is the point. Crypto decentralization is a myth when when it's beating heart are centralized exchanges.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> Yea, that is the point. Crypto decentralization is a myth when when it's beating heart are centralized exchanges.


You don't get it.
Not only do you not understand, but everything that you say is incorrect.


----------



## KaeJS

As an aside...

I sold almost all my crypto this morning.
Sold out of BTC, ETH, LUNA, ADA, LRC and USDC.

All that's left is small ~6k USD position in CRO.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> As an aside...
> 
> I sold almost all my crypto this morning.
> Sold out of BTC, ETH, LUNA, ADA, LRC and USDC.
> 
> All that's left is small ~6k USD position in CRO.


You don't believe in crypto any more?


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> You don't believe in crypto any more?


I never did.
But you can surely make money on it.


----------



## sags

Good time to cash out before "the Great Dumpening".


----------



## sags

I thought KJ had a BMW roadster. Is that it in the avatar picture ?


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> You don't believe in crypto any more?


I am a HUGE believer in crypto technology.

I simply don't have a valuation strategy today, so I don't invest, because I don't believe the "cryptocoin as an investment" valuation story makes sense. 
Really with cross chains the power of crypto will be in it's commodity utility, and unless they're regulated, commodities tend to have little profit.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> I thought KJ had a BMW roadster. Is that it in the avatar picture ?


Nissan 370Z


----------



## londoncalling

90% of all bitcoins have now been mined — but the remaining 10% will take over 100 years to reach open market (msn.com)


----------



## sags

And most of the bitcoins mined are held by a small number of people........known as the whales.

Satoshi alone has over 1 million of the 19 million mined coins. There are other "early adopters" with huge hoards of the coin.

Millions more are eternally unavailable in lost wallets, corrupted hard drives, forgotten keys or deaths of the holders.

The blockchain is controlled by a handful of mining companies, and the exchanges are centralized with weak security. That isn't decentralized to me.

What I wonder is how they are going to convince all of us that we so desperately need to buy their crypto....we will any pay price they demand.

I don't envision a future scenario where I will ever need to buy a single crypto coin.

Does anyone else ?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> What I wonder is how they are going to convince all of us that we so desperately need to buy their crypto....we will any pay price they demand.


They won't. You are more than welcome to live out your life like a Greek pensioner

The younger generations won't be so fortunate to have lavish DB pensions tied to inflation



sags said:


> I don't envision a future scenario where I will ever need to buy a single crypto coin.
> 
> Does anyone else ?


You won't. Just like you won't need to own a single oz of gold.

If you believe in fiat money you are free to use it as your unit of account. Fiat is a perfectly good medium of exchange imo. I prefer to spend my weakest asset. Store of value is another question. I want to store value in something that isn't being devalued like fiat.

But you don't need to store value and nobody is forcing you to.


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> The younger generations won't be so fortunate to have lavish DB pensions tied to inflation


I think the young generation is being fed a false narrative, that everything is a disaster and they're screwed (not true)

And a bunch of crooked "crypto" entrepreneurs are exploiting young people's desperation. The entrepreneurs (likely billionnaires by the way) are going to rip off all the young people who believe this stuff. They keep pushing the same stories to scare the young people into doing stupid things with their money.

That's in America. That's variation #1 of the con. The way con artists work is that they speak to people's weaknesses (vulnerabilities) and exploit those weakness.

Variation #1 exploits the greed and impatience of young Americans and the feeling they can't get ahead, the feeling that the boomers have taken everything and screwed them. An effective con artist understands someone's weaknesses and then speaks to it. @m3s you are describing the American feeling that is being exploited by crypto con artists.

Variation #2 is used in poorer countries (Indonesia, Turkey, etc) where the crypto entrepreneurs exploit those people in another way, because they don't have a stable domestic currency. Poor economy, poor currency, etc. We don't hear this version of the complains at CMF because this isn't our market. A different argument is used by the con artists over there.

Both of these are con jobs. It's likely some billionnaires in silicon valley who are orchestrating all of this.

If you're in your 20s, you are FAR better off learning about standard diversified portfolios, investing in stocks and bonds and learning how to be a disciplined investor. You are not going to make money getting conned by Silicon Valley crypto people. Instead you're just dancing to their tune.

Want to help make some rich people in Silicon Valley much richer? Be my guest... but that's no way to get ahead.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> If you're in your 20s, you are FAR better off learning about standard diversified portfolios, investing in stocks and bonds and learning how to be a disciplined investor.


Bonds are negative in real terms.

Stocks are still good but 40% bonds is obsolete advice when the central banks are distorting the money market. You do need something to hedge stocks though. I would much rather use gold or crypto and maybe some bonds if it helps you sleep (but dear god not 40%)

Simple aging demographics show me gold is going out of fashion with the previous generation in favour of digital assets


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> And a bunch of crooked "crypto" entrepreneurs are exploiting young people's desperation. The entrepreneurs (likely billionnaires by the way) are going to rip off all the young people who believe this stuff.


Solana is like this imo. Most of the tokens were pre-sold to billionaires and the blockchain is not decentralized. Binance chain is even worse. It's just a centralized company owned copy of ethereum. Internet Computer is another example

Ethereum and Cardano always seem to have the best combination of decentralized values and their initial token distributions are also much better than others that were mostly bought cheap by insider billionaires


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> I think the young generation is being fed a false narrative, that everything is a disaster and they're screwed (not true)


It actually is true. We are screwed. You just don't get it. Which I find fascinating since you don't even own a home, and yet you can come on here and say you are not screwed lol...



james4beach said:


> If you're in your 20s, you are FAR better off learning about standard diversified portfolios, investing in stocks and bonds and learning how to be a disciplined investor. You are not going to make money getting conned by Silicon Valley crypto people. Instead you're just dancing to their tune.


If you're in your 20's you have 3 options:

1) live on welfare because working doesn't make sense.

2) spend all your time trying to build a business until you make it, and hope to god you do.

3) kill yourself, because there is no other way out.

Listen -

The younger generation is doomed. I'd say anyone around 1990 or later is basically effed. Unless they had some huge help from mommy and daddy.

But once again - it all depends on what YOU are comfortable achieving FOR YOU. If you're fine taking public transport and renting a shoebox and your entertainment is eating ramen and watching Netflix... Good on ya. You'll be fine. No need to worry.

Some of us (myself) aspire to own a detached home, a nice car, be able to eat well and travel, and not work until I'm too old to enjoy life.

James, I think you are delusional and unaccepting of the unfortunate events that are happening to you (and others). I also think you should listen to m3s regarding bonds and GICs. 

Do you know what percentage of my portfolio is bonds? 1.5%. Because I don't particularly like losing money. I rather spend it. And in this type of inflationary environment - it makes sense to spend.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> It actually is true. We are screwed. You just don't get it. Which I find fascinating since you don't even own a home, and yet you can come on here and say you are not screwed lol...


I don't think it's true. That's right, I don't own a home (I rent).

I live a lean lifestyle. I can live comfortably even if I had a job that only paid 60K salary. At maybe 70K, I would be very comfortable. In reality, just about everyone with a university degree at our age can make more than 60K.

*You* make a lot more than this. You have all the tools and resources to have a very good lifestyle. I honestly don't know why you are so cynical and pessimistic.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> I don't think it's true. That's right, I don't own a home (I rent).
> 
> I live a lean lifestyle. I can live comfortably even if I had a job that only paid 60K salary. At maybe 70K, I would be very comfortable. In reality, just about everyone with a university degree at our age can make more than 60K.
> 
> *You* make a lot more than this. You have all the tools and resources to have a very good lifestyle. I honestly don't know why you are so cynical and pessimistic.


How much are you saving every month on a 60-70k salary? I bet most people aren't saving much.

60-70k gets eaten up real fast.
I'd be surprised at anyone who can consistently save even $1000/month from that.


----------



## MrBlackhill

KaeJS said:


> How much are you saving every month on a 60-70k salary? I bet most people aren't saving much.
> 
> 60-70k gets eaten up real fast.
> I'd be surprised at anyone who can consistently save even $1000/month from that.


You don't need to put that much and $60k/year is definitely enough.

If you put $5000/year inflation-adjusted for 40 years and you earn 6% real return (9% nominal adjusted by 3% inflation), you'll end up with $800,000+ inflation-adjusted at retirement which is enough to continue living at $60k/year inflation-adjusted for 20+ years.


----------



## KaeJS

MrBlackhill said:


> You don't need to put that much and $60k/year is definitely enough.
> 
> If you put $5000/year inflation-adjusted for 40 years and you earn 6% real return (9% nominal adjusted by 3% inflation), you'll end up with $800,000+ inflation-adjusted at retirement which is enough to continue living at $60k/year inflation-adjusted for 20+ years.


I'm saving 3k per month, not including the equity that is going into my homes -

And I can tell you it is not enough. It might be.
But 1k a month? No way is that enough.
I guess it's enough if you plan to retire at 70.


----------



## MrBlackhill

KaeJS said:


> I'm saving 3k per month, not including the equity that is going into my homes -
> 
> And I can tell you it is not enough. It might be.
> But 1k a month? No way is that enough.
> I guess it's enough if you plan to retire at 70.


I don't know how you make your calculations and what are your expectations but when saving $3k/month you can be a millionaire within only 15 years.

I'm saving MUCH less than $3k/month into equities and yet I'm planning to retire very comfortably as a millionaire at 50.

You know that most people retire between 60 and 65, right?

Saving $1k/month can easily get you to $2M after 40 years in real terms, which is much more than enough for retirement!


----------



## MrBlackhill

Say you simply max out your TFSA every year, which is basically only $500/month and will be adjusted for inflation over time.
Say your real rate of return is 6%, so that this calculation leads to an inflation-adjusted balance, in real terms.

You end up being a TFSA millionaire in real terms after 40 years.










Now say you retire for 25 years with a million in a TFSA.
And say your real rate of return during retirement is 4%.
You can withdraw $5k/month net, inflation adjusted, during those 25 years.


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> It actually is true. We are screwed. You just don't get it. Which I find fascinating since you don't even own a home, and yet you can come on here and say you are not screwed lol...


No, you're not.

I admit there is a housing problem, but that is due to government.
Every day there is a story about governments blocking the building of housing.

But pretty much everything else is better.


> But once again - it all depends on what YOU are comfortable achieving FOR YOU. If you're fine taking public transport and renting a shoebox and your entertainment is eating ramen and watching Netflix... Good on ya. You'll be fine. No need to worry.


Well I did years of that, except Netflix didn't exist back then.
But yeah a few years of shoebox and ramen, is just fine.
When I bought my house we had to really cut back again to build up emergency funds etc. I always wondered how people could afford to eat out monthly, let alone weekly, that kind of extra money simply wasn't in my budget.



> Some of us (myself) aspire to own a detached home, a nice car, be able to eat well and travel, and not work until I'm too old to enjoy life.


Young people are pushing the public transit over private vehicle "environmental" agenda.
But you can get a nice new car for $20k, which isn't much, go used and it's even cheaper normally, COVID19 supply disruptions are causing issues now.

Governments are blocking the building of single detached homes, and even condos/apartments to lessen the strain.
There are some pushing polices to restrict governments ability to say no to housing development, but in most cities the "developers" are an enemy of the advocates.


I'm not sure what your issue is, but I've ALWAYS enjoyed life, it did get a bit tiring with the kids in the 0-5 age range, but I've honestly enjoyed my life all the way through.
I enjoyed life as a kid, a teen, a young adult, a childless married couple, a married couple with kids.. it's all been good.

If you're waiting for a big pot of gold at the end of the rainbow to live a happy life you're not likely to ever be happy.



> And in this type of inflationary environment - it makes sense to spend.


I do agree there, this inflationary environment is very bad.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]


----------



## sags

Everybody should have their own coin and then we can give them to each other for a job well done.


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> How much are you saving every month on a 60-70k salary? I bet most people aren't saving much.
> 
> 60-70k gets eaten up real fast.
> I'd be surprised at anyone who can consistently save even $1000/month from that.


If you take housing out, that's a fine salary.

If you want to fix housing, tell the government to let developers build.
After decades of underbuilding, it will take time to fix, but it will happen. Also lots of jobs to build those homes... if the government stops blocking development.


----------



## KaeJS

MrMatt said:


> No, you're not.
> 
> I admit there is a housing problem, but that is due to government.
> Every day there is a story about governments blocking the building of housing.
> 
> But pretty much everything else is better.
> 
> Well I did years of that, except Netflix didn't exist back then.
> But yeah a few years of shoebox and ramen, is just fine.
> When I bought my house we had to really cut back again to build up emergency funds etc. I always wondered how people could afford to eat out monthly, let alone weekly, that kind of extra money simply wasn't in my budget.
> 
> 
> Young people are pushing the public transit over private vehicle "environmental" agenda.
> But you can get a nice new car for $20k, which isn't much, go used and it's even cheaper normally, COVID19 supply disruptions are causing issues now.
> 
> Governments are blocking the building of single detached homes, and even condos/apartments to lessen the strain.
> There are some pushing polices to restrict governments ability to say no to housing development, but in most cities the "developers" are an enemy of the advocates.
> 
> 
> I'm not sure what your issue is, but I've ALWAYS enjoyed life, it did get a bit tiring with the kids in the 0-5 age range, but I've honestly enjoyed my life all the way through.
> I enjoyed life as a kid, a teen, a young adult, a childless married couple, a married couple with kids.. it's all been good.
> 
> If you're waiting for a big pot of gold at the end of the rainbow to live a happy life you're not likely to ever be happy.
> 
> 
> I do agree there, this inflationary environment is very bad.


[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]

I think we are talking about different leagues, here.
You're talking more about leanfire, and I'm talking more fatfire.

No such thing as a nice car for 20k in my books.

I want a 100k car.


----------



## KaeJS

MrBlackhill said:


> Say you simply max out your TFSA every year, which is basically only $500/month and will be adjusted for inflation over time.
> Say your real rate of return is 6%, so that this calculation leads to an inflation-adjusted balance, in real terms.
> 
> You end up being a TFSA millionaire in real terms after 40 years.
> 
> View attachment 22491
> 
> 
> Now say you retire for 25 years with a million in a TFSA.
> And say your real rate of return during retirement is 4%.
> You can withdraw $5k/month net, inflation adjusted, during those 25 years.
> 
> View attachment 22492


I mean, that's great.
But who has 40 years to wait to make a milly?

In 40 years, I will be 72.
On my deathbed.


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> I think we are talking about different leagues, here.
> You're talking more about leanfire, and I'm talking more fatfire.
> 
> No such thing as a nice car for 20k in my books.
> 
> I want a 100k car.


Well you want a car that is 1.5x the median household income. I'd say your issue is that your expectations are too high.

You say young people are screwed, but your metric of "screwed" is a bit off IMO.

It's not even a young/old thing, when you want a car that's nearly the annual take home pay of a 5%er, let alone a 10%er, you're not being realistic to what realistic is.

Even historically, young people weren't buying high end luxury cars, they've always been the purview of older established people. I think your opinion that there is no future and you're screwed is you think the fancy things you see online are normal, they're exceptions. Sure you might be, but chance are you're not.

Also there is nothing wrong with a lower cost car, while I really enjoy my car, I find that spending money on other things gives me more pleasure.


----------



## KaeJS

Well, as I said in another post in response to James...

It depends on what you are willing to settle and be OK with. Sure, there is nothing wrong with a 20k car. Hell, there is nothing wrong with a 5 year old 12k car!

There is also nothing wrong with buying clothes from Walmart, $30 shoes, or buying offbrand/no name items.

In fact, I wear $30 shoes and I always buy no name foods, even if it only saves me 50 cents per item. Why pay $3.99 for GayLea cottage cheese when I can get the Metro brand for $3.29? (I'll admit, the GayLea tastes better... But I rather have my 70 cents)

So, no. The younger generation is not "screwed" in the fact that they cannot survive. But they definitely have a harder time thriving. I could probably leanfire in 3 years if I wanted to. But that's not the life I want. I would love to stop working, but being able to only spend 2k a month isn't something I really want. Ideally, I'd like to spend at least double that.

Once again, everyone is different. People also value different things. Many people would never spend 100k on a car (and I understand this). My expectations are definitely high, and I am trying to accept the fact I will own a townhouse only and never a detached.

However, this topic has been a bit sidetracked.


----------



## MrBlackhill

KaeJS said:


> But who has 40 years to wait to make a milly?


All those who start working at 25 or younger.



KaeJS said:


> I will be 72.
> On my deathbed.


So you don't expect to stay healthy for long. Life expectancy in Canada is over 80.



KaeJS said:


> I want a 100k car.


This could explain. Obviously you'll have to make a lot of money and save a lot of money if your main desire in life is to buy luxuries.


----------



## MrBlackhill

KaeJS said:


> But they definitely have a harder time thriving.


Depends on your perspective of what is needed in life to "thrive". I certainly don't need any luxuries to thrive in life. I only need good friends to share some stories and laughs.


----------



## cainvest

MrMatt said:


> You say young people are screwed, but your metric of "screwed" is a bit off IMO.


Ah come on, back in my day what person in their 30's didn't have nearly million in the bank, a $50k (price adjusted) car and a 2500 sq ft house w/ detached double garage on a desirable waterfront lot in a wamer climate? It was so easy back then but nowadays, forget about it ...


----------



## Spudd

Also, if you shop at Food Basics instead of Metro that will help. Metro is ridiculously expensive.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Depends on your perspective of what is needed in life to "thrive". I certainly don't need any luxuries to thrive in life. I only need good friends to share some stories and laughs.


My luxury now is that if an inconvenience is less than $20, I just do it.
You wouldn't believe how many problems aren't problems if you're willing to spend $100 to solve them.


----------



## KaeJS

Spudd said:


> Also, if you shop at Food Basics instead of Metro that will help. Metro is ridiculously expensive.


I do. =)

But obviously they are owned by metro so it is all still Metro brand, that's what I meant.

And I own Metro stock, so why not? 😂


----------



## MrBlackhill

Nouvelles monnaies | Des bitcoins pour Noël ?


Sur la liste de cadeaux de Noël de bien des adolescents et de jeunes adultes se retrouvent des articles qui donnent des maux de tête à leurs parents : cryptomonnaie, bitcoins, NFT… Faut-il fermer les yeux et passer son tour ou plonger dans cet univers numérique mystérieux ?




lp.ca





BITCOINS FOR CHRISTMAS?

On the Christmas gift list of many teens and young adults are items that give their parents headaches: cryptocurrency, bitcoins, NFT... Should you close your eyes and skip your turn or dive into this mysterious digital universe?

"It's normal to be afraid of what you don't understand," says Marie-Hélène Bourbeau, 51-year-old mother from Trois-Rivières. His 15-year-old son Mattis has a digital wallet of a few thousand dollars with his older brother. He has invested in some cryptocurrencies, including Binance. When her boys first told her about cryptocurrency seven years ago, she was "not listening" and "not that open," she admits.

-----

7 years ago?! Woah, maybe she should've listened to the financial advice of her young kids, haha...

The article continues and ends with a few informative links: https://lautorite.qc.ca/en/general-public/investments/crypto


----------



## Ukrainiandude

Bitcoin mining consumes *around 91 terawatt-hours of electricity annually*. That's more annual electricity use than all of Finland, which is a country of 5.5 million people. That's almost 0.5% of all electricity consumption worldwide, and a 10 times jump from just five years ago.

The study found that just one Bitcoin transaction uses around 12 times as much electricity as 100,000 Visa transactions. Around 400,000 Bitcoin transactions take place every day so, every 24 hours, transactions alone use 7,000 MWh of electricity.

total 









As previously discussed, Bitcoin is currently using around 177.43 TWh of electricity yearly. Ethereum uses around 79.69 TWh yearly.

I think crypto should be phased out like coal. It’s bad for the environment and doesn’t provide any additional value to the society, really.


----------



## m3s

The energy usage doesn't change based on transactions so the comparison is flawed

Bitcoin uses less energy than mining, transporting and protecting gold as a store of value or the legacy financial industry as a settlement layer. It uses less energy than Christmas lights. Difference is bitcoin can monetize renewable energy like it is doing in Texas (cuts the breakeven point for investment in renewables down significantly by monetizing otherwise unused renewable energy)

Ethereum will be 99% more efficient in a few months. It can already run on a raspberry pi and ethereum mining will be obsolete.

So maybe we should ban gold mining and Christmas lights


----------



## Ukrainiandude

m3s said:


> Ethereum will be 99% more efficient in a few months. It can already run on a raspberry pi and ethereum mining will be obsolete.


What does it mean for investors? ETHX will go into oblivion or too the moon?


----------



## m3s

Ukrainiandude said:


> What does it mean for investors? ETHX will go into oblivion or too the moon?


Well it's been anticipated and priced in for over a year at this point

Ethereum has far more growth with DeFi and dApps but it's not the only one. Bitcoin has no real competition in its league

I don't see ethereum "flippening" bitcoin anytime soon but it can easily outperform it


----------



## Thal81

m3s said:


> Well it's been anticipated and priced in for over a year at this point


Oh my. How deep in the rabbit hole you have fallen my friend, to think that there's any fundamental logic to the price of crypto. There is nothing "priced in", it's all based on FOMO.


----------



## m3s

I agree if by fundamental logic you mean a cartel of old folks to decide when to print money for the banks that happen to pay them back in "speaking fees"

Much logic indeed


----------



## MrMatt

Thal81 said:


> Oh my. How deep in the rabbit hole you have fallen my friend, to think that there's any fundamental logic to the price of crypto. There is nothing "priced in", it's all based on FOMO.


That's the problem, most blockchains offer no real value, so it's hard to give them a price.

Cool technology, but it's lacking a value case.

NFT's are neat, but most of them are just links to a file on a server. Server goes down and your "asset" simply ceases to exist.


----------



## m3s

I like how the goal posts keep moving.

First it was energy usage. Energy efficiency solutions come and suddenly it can't scale. It scales and suddenly it can't store data. Decentralized layers for data are already coming. Many ways to solve that

Next you will say quantum computer. The financial industry uses SIM cards for optional 2FA and you think they are ready for quantum computing hah.


----------



## MrBlackhill




----------



## Tostig

A perspective from the G&M.









A finance professor’s advice on investing in bitcoin: Just say no


It’s time to learn the risk of fads, be they digital or analog




www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## m3s

Tostig said:


> A perspective from the G&M.


So much wrong with this article. I guess that's what you expect when an academic who should be publishing theories in their area of expertise starts to write clickbait porn for boomers about something they have not studied

Universities across the US are developing blockchain tech. Their are PhD developing and contributing to theories on how it will be applied to many industries including the military. Canadian universities are basically cash grabs


----------



## Spudd

MrBlackhill said:


> View attachment 22584


Interesting to see Bombardier there! I didn't know it was still popular. Did it get meme stock status at some point this past year?


----------



## m3s

Spudd said:


> Interesting to see Bombardier there! I didn't know it was still popular. Did it get meme stock status at some point this past year?


You live under a rock? Bombardier was one if the best performing stocks on the TSX in 2021!

After selling off their prized commercial and regional airliners and rail they were left with only the business jets that were going out of fashion for environmental reasons. But then came a pandemic. Private travel is surging when people don't want to be crammed in a tube of recirculated air with a bunch of cranky virus carriers arguing with flight attendants about masks

A lot more people are renting business jets per hour now. I listened to a podcast with a young guy that made a booming business out of that


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> So much wrong with this article. I guess that's what you expect when an academic who should be publishing theories in their area of expertise starts to write clickbait porn for boomers about something they have not studied
> 
> Universities across the US are developing blockchain tech. Their are PhD developing and contributing to theories on how it will be applied to many industries including the military. Canadian universities are basically cash grabs


 ... this repeat elsewhere on CMF caught my eye, especially with reference to "boomers" and your continuous connotations that go with it.

Where Do Crypto Currencies Get Funds For Dividend Payments? (post #119)

First of all, it's "There are", not "Their are", your touché for grammar.

Secondly, see above.

Thirdly (actually secondly), your assertion(s) that those with a PHD, like the writer of the article is merely spinning theories rather than living in the real world - I don't disbelieve you since they are doing the same as promoters of virtual assets such as bitcoins, blockchain, and the likes.

As an investor, I would rather buy a pair of socks than put a nickel into one of these. At least I can keep my feet dry and warm than staring at a wat?


----------



## KaeJS

In recent news:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1477494469150711808
_"Do it for the culture."_


----------



## sags

I would want to see some proof that "real" money actually changed hands, and not a bunch of worthless tokens.

Worthless tokens for worthless NFT.........makes it worthless.


----------



## sags

Interesting court battles over NFT copyrights starting up.

People simply "mirror" an NFT or change a couple of pixels and sell them as "different" NFTs.

If you don't own the copyrights to something so it can't be cloned, mirrored or duplicated.......you own nothing.


----------



## sags

Melania Trump is now peddling limited edition NFTs of a painting of her eyes for $200 each. 

A "portion" is supposed to be given to charity....yea, maybe a penny each, given the Trump family record of charitable giving.

All the grifters are swarming into NFTs now. It is like feeding popcorn to sucker fish....they just keep gobbling it up.


----------



## KaeJS

ETH is not a worthless token.
First of all, it's not even a token.

It is real money, the same way that if you buy any asset you can resell that asset and get back fiat.

Is the NFT useless? Sure.
About as useless as any other art.
You can stare at it or sell it - that's it.


----------



## sags

My wife went out shopping this morning. She came home loaded up with a lot of stuff she said was discounted or on sale.

She is an inflation fighting shopper........that is for sure. She got deep into deflationary terrority this morning.

None of the stores would accept any crypto though. They only want fiat money that loses value for some unknown reason.

But she did get points and cash back on her purchases........kind of like free money.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> As an investor, I would rather buy a pair of socks than put a nickel into one of these. At least I can keep my feet dry and warm than staring at a wat?


Ok boomer. Enjoy your socks


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> My wife went out shopping this morning. She came home with a lot of stuff she said was discounted or on sale for cheaper prices (deflation ?)


sags seems to think that 50% off an arbitrary MSRP is deflation. Things are always on sale. Sales are to fool the consumerist boomers. Black friday sales does not make inflation into deflation sags

Inflation is not good news for GICs.


----------



## sags

And you think that a 50% increase on an arbitrary MSRP is inflation.

I suspect in both cases, the price changes are due to supply and demand "boomer style" economics.


----------



## sags

A whole lot of stupid is going to get rounded up and get squashed when reality catches up to the euphoria and the bubbles burst.

There will be calls for the government to investigate, reimburse people, do something.......as it dawns on people they have been "hosed".

Experience may be the best way to learn, but life is a tough teacher.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> And you think that a 50% increase on an arbitrary MSRP is inflation.


No I don't

I am following many macro indicators and expected inflation since 2020. I reallocated with that expectation

You said inflation is good news for GICs


----------



## sags

Inflation that drives higher interest rates is good for "our" GICs.

You should realize that years ago the banks didn't give you anything to hold your money in safety. Now they are paying you to do it.

Infamous bank robber Willie Sutton.....

_When asked why he robbed banks, Sutton simply replied, “Because that’s where the money is.” _


----------



## sags

The modern day Willie Suttons rob people of their money by creating worthless tokens, manipulating the price, and pumping it on social media platforms.

It will all end badly......but today's Willie Suttons will likely never spend a day in prison, because law enforcement won't be chasing them all over the world.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Inflation that drives higher interest rates is good for "our" GICs.


So you have variable rate GICs that will increase? What is the average rate of return? Can you please explain to me how they will beat inflation.

Please contribute some knowledge for once besides complaining about how everyone else is wrong and yet everyone else should hand you something as well



sags said:


> You should realize that years ago the banks didn't give you anything to hold your money in safety. Now they are paying you to do it.


When was that? I remember buying a Canadian Saving Bond as a teenager and the rate was very good

Banks nowadays require a minimum balance or charge you a fee for your liquidity. In Europe they now have negative yield (you pay the bank to hold your money)

Banks are very profitable sags


----------



## sags

m3s said:


> No I don't
> 
> I am following many macro indicators and expected inflation since 2020. I reallocated with that expectation
> 
> You said inflation is good news for GICs


Why since 2020 when the Fed has been "printing money" since 2008 ?

Why was there little or no inflation in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ?

What happened in 2020 ? Oh yea, covid happened and factories closed and supply chains were disrupted.

Millions of people deferred mortgage payments, car payments, credit card payments during the pandemic and had money to spend.

They spent the extra money on products that were in short supply, so the price went up. No surprise there.

The whole Fed printing money is driving inflation higher theory isn't supported by the facts.


----------



## sags

Economists were stressing out over future deflation before the pandemic hit.

Now they are talking about inflation, and ignoring that a whole generation of people are heading into retirement with no pensions and no savings.

The foundation of our economy is consumer spending.

We are heading for a deflationary period in the future, when millions of new retirees have left the pool of spending consumers and are forced by the reality of scant retirement savings or income to cut back their spending sharply as consumers.

We plan to continue collecting interest on GICs and add to them. They will come in real handy in the future for someone.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The whole Fed printing money is driving inflation higher theory isn't supported by the facts.


Then our strategies and situations differ. You stick to your special thesis that inflation is good news for GICs. I'll stick to mine.

I don't need GICs. I already have steady income and traditional stocks. I don't need to buy warm socks. I already have warm socks. I'm more interested in the best deals on custom yacht builds

So if you aren't interested in crypto then why are you commenting the crypto threads instead of the GIC threads? If you don't have anything to contribute why not just read or ask questions here?

If you don't have a clue what you are talking about why show us over and over


----------



## KaeJS

Why are we talking about GICs as if they matter?

Buying a GIC is a losing proposition. The reason the banks pay a rate for your money is because there is more money to be made elsewhere.

Unless you happen to buy a GIC right before a huge deflationary period, then you are losing money and you've got it wrong.

The sole purpose of a GIC is security of capital. It has nothing to do with earning, growing or even maintaining purchasing power. GIC's are strictly for preserving capital, even if (and in most cases) you lose purchasing power.

When rates go up, it is not good for GICs. In fact, when rates go up, it is the exact opposite. When rates go down, that's what makes a GIC a good investment, not the other way around (assuming you bought right before the decline in rates).

Regardless - the truth is that GICs are worthless.
Unless you are old and just looking to ride out your life and your capital, it doesn't make sense.

I can't understand why anyone under 60 would own a GIC unless they were already multimillionaires. Then, maybe it might make some sense.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> We are heading for a deflationary period in the future, when millions of new retirees have left the pool of spending consumers and are forced by the reality of scant retirement savings or income to cut back their spending sharply as consumers.


Bad times are ahead for sure. Interesting that you are so certain it will be deflationary.

Let's say hypothetically consumer spending dries up for whatever reason. Maybe the older generation didn't save enough because they are good consumerist boomers and social safety nets are underfunded. Younger generation is replaced by automation and become less materialistic because buying cheap plastic trinkets from China goes out of style. The government will just print more money sags. It's a downward spiral. We need babies or immigrant wage slaves to prop up this pyramid scheme.

According to you and beav fiat is real unlike crypto because you can look at the digital numbers in your digital bank account? What would fiat money do for you on the moon? Can you eat it?


----------



## MrBlackhill

sags said:


> when millions of new retirees have left


From 2009 to 2020:

Population in working age 15-64 went from 69.456% to 66.12%
Population of 65+ went from 13.868% to 18.104%
Population of 0-14 went from 16.676% to 15.775%
Which means a labor shortage, which means people will ask higher salaries, which will increase inflation. And cost-push inflation cannot be controlled by the policy rate.

During that same period from 2009 to 2020, inflation averaged only 1.64% while 10 year bond rates decreased from 3.5% to 1.5%. (With house prices in Canada increasing in average by more than 4%/year during that period)

We've been below the target inflation for a decade, that's why we've let rates decrease (with house prices increasing because they aren't part of inflation, ha). But now with 2021 that 10-year average will suddenly reach near 2% and 2022 won't stop it, even with the rate increases.

Inflation is there, rates will increase, inflation will still be there.





__





Population ages 15-64 (% of total population) - Canada | Data


Population ages 15-64 (% of total population) - Canada from The World Bank: Data




data.worldbank.org


----------



## londoncalling

sags said:


> Now they are talking about inflation, and ignoring that a whole generation of people are heading into retirement with no pensions and no savings.
> 
> The foundation of our economy is consumer spending.
> 
> We are heading for a deflationary period in the future, when millions of new retirees have left the pool of spending consumers and are forced by the reality of scant retirement savings or income to cut back their spending sharply as consumers.


@sags Which generation of people are heading into retirement with no pension or savings? I ask out of genuine interest as I know Boomers, Gen Xers, and Millennials that have little to no savings, have their retirement savings allocated improperly by owning primarily one asset class. I am also aware of people from all demographics that have amassed sufficient assets to enjoy their retirement either now or when the time comes. I hate to beat the same drum time and again but there are many roads to wealth and life and circumstance are not the same for each of us. Fortunes are made (and lost) sometimes very quickly, while for others it may take a lifetime or longer.

I am fascinated by your statement that the foundation of our economy is consumer spending. Is it currently? Has it always been that way? Does it have to be the foundation going forward?


----------



## m3s

Eminem bought a Bored Ape for Ξ123 ($600k CAD)


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1477005759359733771


----------



## sags

A relatively cheap PR stunt in advance of his new album.









New Eminem and Dr. Dre Song Snippet Surfaces - Listen


Listen here.




www.xxlmag.com


----------



## sags

Rather than complaining about people dissing crypto, why don't you do a better job of explaining where your "millions" comes from, since several posters have asked directly. Is that "millions" in cash or more tokens ? I think we already know the answer to that question.

From what you have said.......the people creating tokens, create and give you more tokens, if you lend your tokens back to them.

It all sounds like a "token gesture" to you from them, so they can claim the tokens they create have some value due to all the tokens in circulation.

All these tokens are doing is circulating among a closed group of believers, to give the illusion of vast wealth.

A big problem with all these tokens is that if someone with a lot of them tries to cash them in.....the price would plummet from lack of buyers.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> Rather than complaining about people dissing crypto, why don't you do a better job of explaining where your "millions" comes from, since several posters have asked directly. Is that "millions" in cash or more tokens ? I think we already know the answer to that question.
> 
> From what you have said.......the people creating tokens, create and give you more tokens, if you lend your tokens back to them.
> 
> It all sounds like a "token gesture" to you from them, so they can claim the tokens they create have some value due to all the tokens in circulation.
> 
> All these tokens are doing is circulating among a closed group of believers, to give the illusion of vast wealth.
> 
> A big problem with all these tokens is that if someone with a lot of them tries to cash them in.....the price would plummet from lack of buyers.


I guess if m3s offered you a million in tokens, you would say no? It's worthless, right? So I assume you would decline the gift. I would love for nothing more than for someone to offer me tokens.

It's funny you say "closed group of believers" given the market cap of the cryptosphere and the fact that some of the most searched phrases and words for 2021 were crypto related.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> A big problem with all these tokens is that if someone with a lot of them tries to cash them in.....the price would plummet from lack of buyers.


I'm well aware of liquidity sags. Liquidity is not a problem

Your outlook on the vast majority of topics is typically negative and always pointing out why nothing will ever work. This attitude is just unproductive. If you don't have anything constructive or any actual knowledge to contribute, why post

I'm always impressed by the old gents who are open to new concepts and ideas. The grumpy old salty ones are just annoying.


----------



## m3s

A wise old boomer who is willing to adapt his world view to new information over time


----------



## Freedom2022

sags said:


> Now they are talking about inflation, and ignoring that a whole generation of people are heading into retirement with no pensions and no savings.


In Canada, the government provides old age security and income supplement.
Everybody has pensions.


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Ok boomer. Enjoy your socks


 ... I'm not quite a boomer but my parents are. 

Anyhow, I do enjoy my socks ... got multiple pairs of them in all kinds of styles meaning I can change and throw them away faster than some "investor" harvesting BTCs and the likes.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> Anyhow, I do enjoy my socks ... got multiple pairs of them in all kinds of styles meaning I can change and throw them away faster than some "investor" harvesting BTCs and the likes.


Wat

My socks are merino wool. They are god tier life changing and I couldn't care less about the style. They pay for themselves because I keep them so long. Kind of like my investments

Sounds like you are more boomer with socks than stocks. Why are we talking about socks


----------



## londoncalling

m3s said:


> A wise old boomer who is willing to adapt his world view to new information over time


Thanks for sharing this link. I would agree with a lot of points made in this segment especially about the transformation of how the world views money, Ray Dalio is always able to capture my attention and I will likely watch the entire 92 mins when I get a chance. This is not the first time in my life that I will miss out on an opportunity to make sizable returns on an investment thesis. I knew crypto would become a game changer when I saw a crypto atm at a local restaurant 5 or 6 years ago. Unfortunately for me, I don't know how to evaluate crypto to determine what is a proper valuation and I don't believe most in the market do either. That doesn't mean I should criticize the investment, or even try to caution others repeatedly. It is unlikely that I will buy crypto for investment purposes but that doesn't mean that I can't learn more about the future. I am open to the possibility of it becoming a global currency To draw a parallel comparison that has already been discussed here and elsewhere: the dot.com bubble was real. Some people made a ton of money. Some people lost a ton of money. After the dust settled the internet and the web became a huge part of our daily lives. What's to say crypto will be any different? I think it's likely but not to the point where I will wager on which currency(ies) will be the winner(s). 

Sadly, I did not receive a reply from Sags to my questions in post 839 as I believe there was an opportunity to add value by explaining your thoughts on inflation/deflation and the future retirement of people.


----------



## sags

_Canada: Household consumption as percent of GDP, 1961 - 2020: For that indicator, we provide data for Canada from 1961 to 2020. The average value for Canada during that period was 56.35 percent with a minimum of 52.91 percent in 1981 and a maximum of 63.42 percent in 1961. *The latest value from 2020 is 57.42 percent. *_



https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-001-x/10604/6922-eng.pdf











Canada’s economic recovery hinges on a return to work, consumer spending


Canada's economy is recovering during the prolonged impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit slowly. Ted Mallett, director of economic forecasting with the Conference Board of Canada, points to several positive signs and circumstances to the recovery. For one, the economy has grown this year...




www.realagriculture.com


----------



## m3s

londoncalling said:


> To draw a parallel comparison that has already been discussed here and elsewhere: the dot.com bubble was real. Some people made a ton of money. Some people lost a ton of money. After the dust settled the internet and the web became a huge part of our daily lives. What's to say crypto will be any different? I think it's likely but not to the point where I will wager on which currency(ies) will be the winner(s).


Thank you for a rare constructive discussion around here these days. I listened to the entire discussion and enjoyed it and Ray is on several other podcasts lately

I have also compared it to the .com bubble for some time. The general consensus is BTC and ETH have substantially more network effect but things will be very turbulent for some time. BTC is the most secure with the smallest attack surface while ETH is about to complete a massive upgrade that has been in development for years. Neither of those will disappear overnight but there is also a lot of very interesting tech coming. Like the .com bubble there will be more than one winner imo. They are designed for many different purposes and uses not unlike the internet

I would recommend building a small allocation in BTC and ETH even if it is only in a spot ETF. But if you really just want some exposure without choosing winners why not allocate a bit into the casinos like COIN or VOYG? There is some regulatory turbulence for them but you don't have to pick winners as they generate growing yield from traders whether people are trading in or out. Canadian miners are undervalued compared to US but I would recommend that last as it's more volatile and competitive than crypto itself with the regulatory risks on top.

The no-brainer start though is the stablecoins. 8-20% yield lately without lockup through "traditional" centralized services like FTX, Gemini, Celsius etc (over collateralized loans)


----------



## sags

Ray Dalio's latest interview.

Is there a valid counter argument why governments *wouldn't* ban crypto if it threatened control over their own currency ?

_Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has warned crypto investors around the world that the boycott of Bitcoin on a global level is a possibility. Speaking on the Investor's Podcast Network, Dalio said governments around the world could collectively outlaw Bitcoin, which is an unregulated and decentralised digital asset, currently trading at $46,939 (roughly Rs. 34.92 lakh) on international exchanges. The main reason Dalio backed his opinion with was the threatening alternate currency that Bitcoin could become in itself, which could challenge the authorities of central banks around the world.

*“In history, they've outlawed gold and they've outlawed silver, and so on, and they could outlaw Bitcoin. Every government wants a monopoly in their own currency,” a report by Bitcoin.com quoted Dalio as saying.*

Despite having admitted to owning Bitcoin and Ether as part of his diversified portfolio, the billionaire has consistently remained skeptical about the growth of the crypto space._









Billionaire Ray Dalio Says Governments Could Outlaw Bitcoin


Dalio has often spoken out of his concerns linked to the crypto space. Last year, he said cryptocurrencies could be killed altogether.




gadgets.ndtv.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Ray Dahlio can't seem to make up his mind.


Ray Dalio is a decisive billionaire sags. I think he can make up his mind. He also changes his view over time.

You just posted some random article written by Radhika Parashar. I don't know who that is and I don't even need to waste my time reading it. China already banned bitcoin lol. Bitcoin aint care sags. Ray Dalio is a boomer not a tech expert and he claims to own BTC and ETH

I posted a video of Ray Dalio speaking himself. Go watch and learn something for once


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Is there a valid counter argument why governments *wouldn't* ban crypto if it threatened control over their own currency ?


They can't.

The US government, Federal Reserve and SEC have all already confirmed they don't even plan to. I've posted the sources before but you never process information you disagree with. Not even China can ban cryptocurrency. Ray Dalio is simply an example of a boomer who is capable to process _some_ new information.

He vastly underestimates the total addressable market by comparing it to gold. Gold is not nearly as portable or secure. That's like comparing the internet to a wall phone. Impressive for a boomer anyways. A government or military can seize gold by force. If done correctly bitcoin cannot be taken by force.

Interesting that he prefers gold because it is untraceable. The boomer media claims criminals use crypto while billionaires prefer to store untraceable gold in off-shore vaults.


----------



## Fain

sags said:


> Rather than complaining about people dissing crypto, why don't you do a better job of explaining where your "millions" comes from, since several posters have asked directly. Is that "millions" in cash or more tokens ? I think we already know the answer to that question.
> 
> From what you have said.......the people creating tokens, create and give you more tokens, if you lend your tokens back to them.
> 
> It all sounds like a "token gesture" to you from them, so they can claim the tokens they create have some value due to all the tokens in circulation.
> 
> All these tokens are doing is circulating among a closed group of believers, to give the illusion of vast wealth.
> 
> A big problem with all these tokens is that if someone with a lot of them tries to cash them in.....the price would plummet from lack of buyers.


Crypto has made a lot of folks millions. I would guess his wealth came from HODLing mainstream cryptos, early projects, or some equity investments related to crypto. 

Liquidity is only an issue for any Private Equity Crypto investments he has or thinly traded Alt Coins. 

if you have to sell a bunch of crypto, you'd naturally assume a haircut to its value. Similar to moving negotiating a block trade for stocks.


----------



## kcowan

This has developed into a worthwhile discussion. Thanks.


----------



## m3s

kcowan said:


> This has developed into a worthwhile discussion. Thanks.


We haven't really scratched the surface, Keith

You were early to AAPL the play of the last decade. Any interest in crypto exposure at the current risk/reward?


----------



## m3s

Fain said:


> I would guess his wealth came from HODLing mainstream cryptos, early projects, or some equity investments related to crypto.
> 
> Liquidity is only an issue for any Private Equity Crypto investments he has or thinly traded Alt Coins.
> 
> if you have to sell a bunch of crypto, you'd naturally assume a haircut to its value. Similar to moving negotiating a block trade for stocks.


Mostly mainstream cryptos (top 10 by market cap) that I averaged in slowly since the 2018 crash.

I gamble with about 10% on smaller caps now. The liquidity gets too thin especially after the top 100 so you have to be careful how you trade those. I have some equity related to crypto in registered accounts. Lots of opportunity for arbitrage but equity markets are antiquated by comparison.

Whereas all blockchain data is available in realtime free to everyone 24/7, traditional markets are very closed off unless you're a hedge fund.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> _The main reason Dalio backed his opinion with was the threatening alternate currency that Bitcoin could become in itself, which could challenge the authorities of central banks around the world.
> 
> *“In history, they've outlawed gold and they've outlawed silver, and so on, and they could outlaw Bitcoin. Every government wants a monopoly in their own currency,” a report by Bitcoin.com quoted Dalio as saying.*
> 
> Despite having admitted to owning Bitcoin and Ether as part of his diversified portfolio, the billionaire has consistently remained skeptical about the growth of the crypto space._


First they ignore you
Then they laugh at you
Then they fight you
Then you win

Bring it on sags. Central banks are for boomers


----------



## londoncalling

sags said:


> _Canada: Household consumption as percent of GDP, 1961 - 2020: For that indicator, we provide data for Canada from 1961 to 2020. The average value for Canada during that period was 56.35 percent with a minimum of 52.91 percent in 1981 and a maximum of 63.42 percent in 1961. *The latest value from 2020 is 57.42 percent. *_
> 
> 
> 
> https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-001-x/10604/6922-eng.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada’s economic recovery hinges on a return to work, consumer spending
> 
> 
> Canada's economy is recovering during the prolonged impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit slowly. Ted Mallett, director of economic forecasting with the Conference Board of Canada, points to several positive signs and circumstances to the recovery. For one, the economy has grown this year...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.realagriculture.com


@sags thank for the link. I don't believe anyone would dispute that North Americans migrated to a consumer driven economy in the latter 20th C. I believe this is typical of developed nations when the cost of production exceeds the cost of outsourcing. It happened in Europe in the 19thC prior and perhaps was delayed as a result of colonialism. Even China is seeing labour cost pressure from neighbouring countries. As the middle class emerges in China there will be greater demand for goods and services. This has already started and who knows at what rate it will accelerate.

Will the US hold on (and if so for how long) or will it follow the path of previous empires. Isolationistic policy has seen a lot of political acceptance in the US but what are the effects of such economic policy? A move away from the US$ to another currency(crypto?) would be a huge blow to that nation's strength and a major disruption to the global economy that we have not seen in our lifetimes.


----------



## m3s

londoncalling said:


> Will the US hold on (and if so for how long) or will it follow the path of previous empires. Isolationistic policy has seen a lot of political acceptance in the US but what are the effects of such economic policy? A move away from the US$ to another currency(crypto?) would be a huge blow to that nation's strength and a major disruption to the global economy that we have not seen in our lifetimes.


Would you prefer crypto or yuan? How much more USD can we print to fight countries who dare trade oil in something other than USD?









source


----------



## m3s




----------



## londoncalling

m3s said:


> Would you prefer crypto or yuan? How much more USD can we print to fight countries who dare trade oil in something other than USD?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> source


This provides an excellent visual of the past 40 years and does a lot to explain interdependence of a global economy. 

"Since 1980, countries like Japan, which at one point almost exclusively traded with the United States, now rely on China for a majority of their trading activity." 

*Top 5 U.S. Top Trade Partners in 2018 (Total Merchandise Trade, $M)*
1. Canada: $617,382
2. Mexico: $611,528
3. Japan: $217,563
4. Germany: $183,558
5. Republic of Korea: $130,635

*Top 5 China Top Trade Partners in 2018 (Total Merchandise Trade, $M)*
1. Japan: $328,043
2. Republic of Korea: $312,520
3. Hong Kong: $312,258
4. Taiwan: $225,780
5. Germany: $184,368

Japan is #3 US and #1 China respectively. I know Japan put a lot of effort in the 80s to buy US Treasuries to control its currency and buy up US assets. China as well in later decades. I am not sure how many accountants it would take to determine who owns what.


----------



## m3s

Does her boomer husband know about this?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1478129577402765317


----------



## MrBlackhill

A Bitcoin dividend.



https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-listed-firm-says-offer-152504248.html


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> A Bitcoin dividend.


BTCS up 32% today


----------



## sags

Bitcoin continues the downward trend. It has fallen below $46K now.

Just watching the exchange live.

Ask....$45,650 for bitcoins available.....bid $46, 500 which jumped over the lower "asks".....obvioius price manipulation.

The whales are hard at work propping up bitcoin but it continues to slide.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Bitcoin continues the downward trend. It has fallen below $46K now.


This from someone who thinks inflation is good news for GICs

BTC is up 30% in a year. The more you zoom out the more it's up.

Stop embarrassing yourself


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> The whales are hard at work propping up bitcoin but it continues to slide.


Funny... it "slid" all the way to a record high just two months ago. In fact, five months in 2021 saw new record highs: January, February, March, April, October and November. Of course, you only mention when the price drops.


----------



## m3s

Another day another airdrop

No clue what it's worth myself but apparently someone in the Philippines was already able to sell a portion and claims it's worth for more than double their annual salary

This airdrop is particularly large because only about 1500 qualified. I'm still trying to count all the airdrops last year for taxes


----------



## sags

Oh no.......crypto mining causes energy riots so government shuts down crypto.

_Also, btc.com estimates both Antpool, Poolin, F2Pool and Binance Pool to have seen significant reductions in their hashrate around the same time as the internet was shut down. These are pools widely used by Kazakh miners,” Mellerud said. 

I guess some geeks would say that in theory you could mine without internet, but in practice, all the machines in Kazakhstan should be turned off because of the internet shutdown,” Jaran Mellerud, a researcher at Arcane Research, told CoinDesk. _









Kazakh Bitcoin Mining Seen Hurt Following Energy Riots, Internet Shutdown


Protesters stormed public buildings on Wednesday, which was followed by the announcement of a possible dissolution of parliament.




www.coindesk.com


----------



## sags

There are currently 35 legislative bills to regulate cyrpto sitting in Congress waiting to process.

The US won't "ban" crypto. They will just regulate it to death.

I wonder if all the crypto fanboys know the rules have changed for IRS reporting of transactions and is now law ?

There are tons of videos pumping crypto but not many, if any, talking about paying taxes.









In 2021, Congress Has Introduced 35 Bills Focused On U.S. Crypto Policy


As the much-followed debate over the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (H.R. 3684) attracted a great deal of attention to Capitol Hill, the U.S. will now face its first test as crypto policy over taxation reporting has become law.




www.forbes.com


----------



## Tostig

As an alternate to nations' sovereign currencies, cryptos are highly volatile. Within one year you can either gain or lose 50% of your value. Except for those historic examples of Zimbabwe and Germany after WW1 where debts are paid in foreign currency, I don't know of any recent example of the CAD, Yen, USD, Bpd, Euro, CNY or any other fluctuating as much as cryptos. How practical are they really as currency when they can't keep their value?

Not even gold fluctuates that much.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Oh no.......crypto mining causes energy riots so government shuts down crypto.


This is big news for US and Canadian miners like BITF, HUT, HIVE etc that have established proper access to electricity

What will the crypto boomers complain about when Ethereum upgrades to be 99% more efficient this year?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The US won't "ban" crypto. They will just regulate it to death.
> 
> I wonder if all the crypto fanboys know the rules have changed for IRS reporting of transactions and is now law ?


Last time you said US will ban crypto

All you do is google some clickbait articles of random sources that confirm what you want and post FUD here. Typical boomer. I've watched the congressional hearing myself sags and you don't have a clue what you're talking about

Stop embarrassing yourself


----------



## sags

Oh oh.......is this the Big Dump that Sags predicted or just a minor tremor before the "big one" ?


----------



## sags

The whale price manipulation is overwhelmed by the sell side volume......so down it goes.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Oh oh.......is this the Big Dump that Sags predicted or just a minor tremor before the "big one" ?


sags.. you "predicted" the big one all year if you actually shorted it you would be absolutely destroyed over and over

We all know you didn't put any money on your "predictions" so who cares. You predicted inflation was good news for GICs


----------



## sags

Cypto continues the downward trend. Bitcoin was below $42K in overnight trading. It is now down 40% from it's ATH.

Kosovo joins other countries in banning crypto mining as it was causing energy blackouts.

US regulators are meeting to discuss the wasteful use of energy by crypto.









Blackouts force European nation to ban bitcoin mining


A European country has banned bitcoin mining because the large amounts of energy the process needs is crippling the electricity grid and contributing to blackouts.




www.news.com.au


----------



## sags

The US discovered it was easier to bring down criminals like the mafia through tax legislation than other criminal justice means.

The Infrastructure bill just passed requires exchanges to report all crypto transactions to the IRS.

There are 35 more legislative bills to regulate crypto waiting Congressional approval.

The "Bitcoin mania" explained.


----------



## kcowan

m3s said:


> We haven't really scratched the surface, Keith
> 
> You were early to AAPL the play of the last decade. Any interest in crypto exposure at the current risk/reward?


Sadly I have entered the decumulation phase and so my main decision-making is what to sell to give away the money. FWIW I would have a position of 5% of NW if I was still accumulating and would focus on the technology likely to be adopted by larger organizations. What I dont know is whether banks really want to track sources (i.e. money laundering issues). Etherium directly competes with banks in that sense.


----------



## m3s

Yea I doubt the banks want to clean up money laundering that gives them business and we can already see the government has turned a blind eye to the panama papers

From what I've heard the banks are still using COBOL and mainframes. Not many COBOL coders around for much longer I can't imagine. The banks will need a major overhaul. ATMs could be the next phone booth

Visa and Mastercard getting into ethereum is just acknowledging the real threat imo. QR scan payments are taking off in other countries (even UK) that cuts out the exorbitant merchant fees

Some of the blockchain networks coming out now are aiming to replace entire stock exchanges. Of course the NYSE etc won't allow that but Canada has already brought it up years ago. The tech has evolved exponentially since as more tech talent joins

Canadian Securities Exchange launching blockchain-based clearing house, challenging TMX

People call crypto magic money yet they don't understand that fractional reserves banking is literal magic banker money


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The Infrastructure bill just passed requires exchanges to report all crypto transactions to the IRS.
> 
> There are 35 more legislative bills to regulate crypto waiting Congressional approval.
> 
> The "Bitcoin mania" explained.


LOL @ Peter Schiff shilling his gold bags. Nothing new sags. The problem with gold is the newer generation will sell it for BTC. Not even Peter Schiff the gold bug of all gold bugs could convince his own son who only buys BTC. What do you think will happen to Peter Schiff's gold when he's gone?

The IRS will have fun auditing trillions of dog coin and monkey jpeg transactions I'm sure. In reality Biden will give more money to the IRS to try to track crypto than they will ever gain from it. The whales already pay their taxes because they know it can be tracked.. it's the teens trading meme coins who just don't know any better lol.

BTW sags the changes to the crypto section in the infrastructure bill was veto'd by 1 ancient crusty old man who was angry he didn't get his defense spending for his lobbyists. The IRS has already said themselves it's vague and impossible to enforce. You're getting your your information from clickbait ad revenue porn for boomers

The new blockchains have a capability for digital ID. This could actually streamline taxes and be good for taxes. No more paying billions to the IRS to track dog coins lol ffs


----------



## sags

You best read up on the new tax reporting.

_For crypto investors looking to stay on the right side of the new law pertaining to their investments, there are two big things to keep in mind: _

_Keep track of your cost basis — what you originally paid for your crypto — as accurately as possible, to reconcile with what the exchanges will be reporting to the IRS._
_Finding a crypto-knowledgeable tax professional could be even more helpful in accurately reporting your crypto investments. Be as transparent as possible with regard to what cryptocurrency you hold and what you paid for it._
_While the IRS considered cryptocurrency taxable property before the new legislation, the defined reporting requirements raise the stakes for investors to make sure they are reporting their activity accurately and completely. 

*“I think a lot of folks are in for a big tax surprise,” Maddox says. “[The IRS is] going to be tracking this information, and there’s no avoiding the tax consequences and gains now.”*_









Two Things Crypto Investors Should Know About the Infrastructure Bill


The president signed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that contains new legislation pertaining to cryptocurrency. Here’s what's changing.




time.com


----------



## sags

Bitcoin falls to $41K and other crypto is falling faster for the 6th week in a row.

At around 10 am, Bitcoin slid down to $40K. It was teetering on dropping down to the 30s level.


----------



## m3s

What is new there sags? Nothing

I already track my ACB and report capital gains and income. That hasn't changed at all. That's pretty standard.. Anyone who has substantial investments would already understand this basic concept.

Enjoy your melting GICs and reading clickbait.


----------



## Freedom2022

I will buy a little bit bitcoin. But I don't want to catch a falling knife. Looks like the resistance level is $38,000.


----------



## sags

The crypto mania is running out of gas. The price continues to fall. Soon all 2021 gains will be gone.

It looks like "greater fools" have spent all their government and Christmas money.

If a whale decides to cash out and dumps a big pile of coins on the market........watch out below.

All the pumpers were out in force yesterday. Michael Saylor was live streaming and Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood had a joint live stream.

Even Kevin O'Leary was pumping crypto.

If crypto is really as valuable as they say........why do they need to pump it all day long on Youtube ?

They sound like they are pumping some unknown mining company penny stocks.


----------



## sags

Paypal announced they are creating their own stable coin based on USD. 

Business doesn't need or want someone else's crypto when they can easily create their own.


----------



## KaeJS

Crypto is bullshyt, sags.

The point you are missing is that even though it is bullshyt, people still want it.

As I have said before, I would never eat at McDonald's or wait in those long lineups to eat that overpriced trash. And yet, people do it every single day.

I agree with you that crypto is ridiculous.
But can you at least see that the world (for some reason, I don't know why) wants this stuff?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Paypal announced they are creating their own stable coin based on USD.
> 
> Business doesn't need or want someone else's crypto when they can easily create their own.


Everybody is competing for USD stablecoin market. PayPal is way too late to that game. All the exchanges and networks already have their own USD coin

These are just used to track the price of USD. They don't replace blockchain networks sags. That's like saying businesses don't need ETFs because they can easily create their own ETF. Every bank has their own branded ETFs and who cares.

You have to stop thinking about cars as if they are horses. It just shows how little you understand


----------



## sags

A good example why companies like Paypal will create their own stable coins and blockchains, so they don't rely on others.









Solana hit with another network incident causing degraded performance


There is debate over whether the Solana blockchain suffered another DDoS attack on Jan. 4 or if it was just network issues caused by trying to fix previous problems.




cointelegraph.com


----------



## m3s

Solana is a centralized venture capitalist project.

If it was decentralized it wouldn't have failed so many times already. The decentralized networks have been up for much longer with less issues. They don't have a good balance of security and scalability so they suffer from attacks

PayPal is just another centralized network. Pointless


----------



## m3s

Shopify is also getting into crypto now. Another pointless centralized version

Shopify will be Canada's next Nortel and Blackberry failure


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> The crypto mania is running out of gas. The price continues to fall. Soon all 2021 gains will be gone.


Stop posting false information. The current BTC price is over 42K, having increased by about 4% over yesterday.

You also posted false information yesterday stating that Bitcoin had dropped to 40K and was nearly below 40K at one point. The actual low was $40,505 on Coinbase and $40,672 on Coinmarketcap.


----------



## sags

You quibble over $500 after bitcoin fell from almost $69,000 ?

Check the bitcoin charts. They are pretty ugly for an asset touted as a "store of wealth".

The price bounces around day to day, but the trend has been down for months.

The charts show a 0.63% increase in the last 24 hours at the time of posting.









Bitcoin Falls Toward $40K, Racks Up Longest Losing Streak Since 2018


Cryptocurrency analysts had warned of the possibility of a steeper sell-off, and now traders are wondering when and where the market shakeout might end.




www.coindesk.com


----------



## Freedom2022

Does the bitcoin drop due to internet shutdown in Kazakhstan or the Fed? 
If it is due to the situation in Kazakhstan, then it will stabilize because people willing to mine more to earn quick bucks.
However, if it is due the Fed raising interest rate, then it will go down more since there are three or more rate increases this year alone.


----------



## m3s

Kazak miners probably had to sell crypto to pay bills and/or relocate. Meanwhile a Canadian miner bought 1000 BTC. Fed giving hawkish "forward guidance" cause risk-off selling. The rate hikes are pretty miniscule but they all get priced in on an announcement - Fed action is still very dovish they are on thin ice

Probably a great buying opportunity in the long term. sags talks confidently after he spent 30 seconds reading some random internet article but clearly doesn't have a clue. sags doesn't short crypto and doesn't know how to zoom out beyond what he wants to see. sags has very little signal to noise.


----------



## sags

Gary Gensler of the SEC was on Squawk on CNBC this morning at 8:30 am.

He wouldn't talk about specific crypto tokens or platforms but said the SEC was going to consider anything that dealt with "investors" as a security.

The crypto companies will have to register with the SEC and will be subject to full transparency on their financials to their investors and the SEC.

The price of bitcoin immediately dropped to $39.5K, then someone drove it straight up by overpaying for bitcoins.

It was either a whale supporting the price or a crypto company decided it better buy some bitcoins to cover their paper IOUs.

I checked the Youtube videos of the bitcoin pumpers and not one of them recognized what had happened.

They went on with "death crosses", fed spending, and all kinds of techno babble to explain the sudden plunge and sudden rise.

*The cypto pumpers are completely oblivious to what is coming from US regulators.*

In general terms, the markets are "risk off". All these high risk.....no income......no profit.......companies are getting pumelled.

Large hedge funds that hold crypto and sketchy meme stocks are getting out. They don't want to have to explain big losses to shareholders.

*It has been calculated there is more paper IOUs for bitcoins than exist.* The SEC is taking Ripple to court and Tether is questionable.

El Salvador was all the rage for bitcoin a couple months ago. *Every purchase El Salvador made to buy bitcoins are now "underwater"*

Cathie Wood's ARKK fund is getting hammered. The stocks held within her fund have fallen off a cliff.

She is now saying that everyone else is wrong and she is right.

Crypto promoters like m3s can't see the real world from inside the bubble they are living in. Memes and anti-boomer sentiment won't save them.

*As I posted before......the US will not "ban" crypto because they don't have to. They will simply regulate it.*

The regulators are the ones with the legal clout and criminal penalties for non-compliance.

If there is a digital currency, it will be a US central bank coin supported by the full weight and power of the US government.

All the rest will be left in the trash can of history.









SEC's Gensler won't say whether ether is a security, amid crypto market slide


Is the cryptocurrency ether a security? Gary Gensler, who heads the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, wouldn't say in a televised interview on Monday.




www.marketwatch.com


----------



## m3s

Gary Gensler has been saying that for a long time. Nothing new sags lol

SEC has contacted crypto related businesses and organization that operate in the US. They can make certain cryptos illegal for americans based on a securities law from over a century ago. They have a lawsuit with XRP that has dragged on for years already and they have ambiguously warned some others.

No other country but the US likes to use rules created for horse carriages on automobiles. The horse lobby is strong but the law is very weak. There is nobody to contact at BTC. Gary Gensler is well aware of this and basically appeases both sides ambiguously with very little clarity or action

Eventually the boomers die and the newer generation that understands the modern world will update the regulations


----------



## sags

I understand people putting a small amount of money into crypto and gambling with it to see if they can earn some free money.

I gamble once in awhile on the OLG slots. Last week, I put in $100 and 4 hours later withdrew $117. Fun and made some free money.

I wouldn't consider spending money on crypto or slot machines as investing though. I also certainly wouldn't bet much money on it either.


----------



## sags

Gensler was only confirmed by the Senate last April, so he hasn't been there that long. His appointment represented a change in direction for the SEC.

There is a 5 member commission that comprise the SEC governance. There are currently 2 Republican members who don't want regulation.

A third Republican member has left the commission. That now means the Democrats will control the panel 3 members to 2 and hold the chair position.

Observing what Janet Yellen, Elizabeth Warren, and influential others are saying about regulating crypto provides clues of the path forward for the SEC.

Democrats aren't against crypto, but they want it fully regulated to protect investors from fraud and the government against criminal activity.

I don't know why anyone would have a problem with that, unless they are planning to commit fraud or involved in criminal activity.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> *As I posted before......the US will not "ban" crypto because they don't have to. They will simply regulate it out of business.*
> 
> The regulators are the ones with the legal clout and criminal penalties for non-compliance.


You posted about 100 times that the US will ban crypto and then you changed your mind last week lol. Good for you

You still haven't realized that the US already approved US financial institutions to trade and custody crypto over a year ago. The US can regulate some US businesses and organizations in the US and they can tax their own citizens (which they already do)

The US can't call up the CEO of a decentralized organization because there isn't one. That's kind of the whole point



sags said:


> If there is a digital currency, it will be a US central bank coin supported by the full weight and power of the US government.
> 
> All the rest will be left in the trash can of history.


This statement is already false because the digital yuan is not from the US central bank.

Crypto currency itself is a misnomer. Decentralized smart contract networks with censorship resistant loans, exchanges and non-fungible tokens are not currencies anyways. We already have many crypto coins pegged to the USD. No big deal at all

Just more clueless posts from sags who thinks inflation is good news for GICs


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I wouldn't consider spending money on crypto or slot machines as investing though. I also certainly wouldn't bet much money on it either.


Good for you

I was financially independent in my 30s before I ever took bigger risks in crypto. Most people consider stocks risky as well. I wouldn't waste a cent on OLG slots because I can do basic math.

For someone who doesn't like crypto at all you sure spend a lot of time trying to learn about it and posting out dated information about it.

To each his own


----------



## sags

I was mining bitcoin on Slush Pool in 2010. It was worthless and tied up the computer so I stopped.

The big mistake I made was underestimating how much stupid people would drive up the price of a game token.

But I should have known better. Like someone once said........never overestimate the intelligence of the average person.


----------



## m3s

Not many people held BTC from 2010. BTC and crypto mining is just as pointless today. Smart contract networks changed everything and began to pick up traction

People always seem to fail to re-evaluate new information and how it changes the current risk/reward today. They just regret that they didn't hold BTC from before or buy it 5 years ago instead of realizing information available today is very different from 5 to 10 years ago.

The risk/reward based on the information available became better especially after 2018. I posted that many times here and I put money behind it. You are not as confident as I was the past few years and you won't short crypto today. If you did it would be worse gamble than your OLM slots.

You can "predict" a crash forever and then come here saying "look I was right all along" Who cares if you didn't short it. Anyone can predict anything without giving the time or money


----------



## sags

Pakistan announces they will be banning crypto. 

They join India who also are planning to ban crypto. 

Sweden is urging the entire EU to ban crypto.

The US is going to regulate crypto.

The crypto bubble is about to pop and the crash will be epic.


----------



## m3s

Has anybody told the boomers you can't ban crypto yet?

Europe and US already gave the go ahead to the financial institutions. Of course they will regulate it. People actually want clarity. Why would you want to ban economic activity that can generate so much in tax revenue

Silly boomers who think inflation is good news for GICs


----------



## sags

They apparently don't know what you know. They believe they can ban it and intend on doing so.

You should send them an urgent email and tell them they can't do it. It would save them a lot of unnecessary work.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> You should send them an urgent email and tell them they can't do it. It would save them a lot of unnecessary work.


They should demand to speak to the crypto manager 

The rise of the BOOMER KAREN

You read too much clickbait FUD saggy man


----------



## m3s

> Swedish authorities have called for an EU-wide ban on *energy-intensive cryptocurrency mining*, which they say threatens targets to limit global warming to 1.5°C under the 2015 Paris Agreement.


Banning mining is distinctly different from banning crypto

They definitely shouldn't be mining crypto in Europe unless they have excess unused renewable energy somewhere. Mining it with unused hydroelectric power, geothermal volcanic power, or wasted gas is different but I've never been a fan of crypto mining myself.

I wasn't mining in 2010 for nothing like sags here. I got into crypto for the staking protocols that use 99% less energy. You can run a blockchain node on a $250 computer now


----------



## sags

I am crypto now.

I downloaded the Daedulus wallet and waiting for it to sync with the blockchain. After an hour it is 6.28% finished. This could take a while.

Next I go to Coinbase and sign up and then buy some Ada. Then I stake it and the free cash starts rolling in.


----------



## m3s

It takes much longer to sync the first time. Coinbase Pro has much lower fees than Coinbase for some reason

I recommend delegating to one of the SundaeSwap Scooper pools - they are giving extra rewards for the next 5 epochs (starting Jan 25) Most of those pools are full you want one that isn't saturated or you will miss out on yield (I recommend ITC4 for example)

Maladex pools are also interesting lately - they run a lottery for MAL every epoch until they launch. Their rewards have a whale-balancing mechanism so the smaller the wallet the better (min 1000 ada) You get less ADA in exchange though

Cardano blocks are running full lately because smart contracts are getting busy and SundaeSwap launches in 2 days. This means txs are slower than usual until they upgrade hopefully soon


----------



## m3s

I think Cardano will be on sale when SundaeSwap launches later this week. Depending how that goes it could be a big sale

I've been doing smart contracts everyday and it works fine but when the blocks are full your tx takes minutes instead of seconds. With all the hype there will be Cardano FUD when the first DEX launches and saturates the blockchain on day 1

Ethereum has been saturated now for years. Cardano is already doing more volume at a fraction of the cost and it can scale much easier


----------



## londoncalling

sags said:


> I am crypto now.
> 
> I downloaded the Daedulus wallet and waiting for it to sync with the blockchain. After an hour it is 6.28% finished. This could take a while.
> 
> Next I go to Coinbase and sign up and then buy some Ada. Then I stake it and the free cash starts rolling in.


Someone hacked @sags CMF account.  
Can you provide some insight as to the sudden shift?


----------



## sags

I thought I would try it out and see how much money could be earned from staking. I picked Cardano based on the support and governance by the creators.

Unfortunately, after downloading the program it caused my computer to freeze and I had to do a hard re-boot and uninstall the Daedulus wallet.

My computer is an old Lenova desktop with 4 Gigs of ram memory, so I need to upgrade to a new desktop to do any of this suff.


----------



## sags

I find the Metaverse much more intriguing than crypto tokens like bitcoins.

Walmart, Microsoft, Gap and other retailers are building platforms where they can sell real products with an NFT to also wear it in their metaverse.

I can understand the potential for real life profits in that business model. Our grand kids are always asking for gift cards to buy digital stuff for games.


----------



## m3s

Yea it needs 16GB of RAM and that's a minimum.

Daedalus is a full node though and you don't actually need that. It's nice to have your own copy of the blockchain especially if you are doing crazy things like minting NFT drops when everyone is trying to send a transaction at the same time

If you just want to try Cardano you can use a light wallet such as Yoroi, Nami or ccvault. Only the latter 2 can do smart contracts. Yoroi is the simplest to use but it also get overloaded when everyone is trying to use the same node

ccvault is the most advanced wallet available now. Nami works pretty well it's just a little weird to chose a pool (they only show you their pool but there is a way to do it)


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I find the Metaverse much more intriguing than unattached crypto tokens.
> 
> Walmart, Microsoft, Gap and other retailers are building platforms where they can sell real products with an NFT to wear it in their metaverse.
> 
> I can understand the potential for real life profits in that business model.


Crypto is spent to process a decentralized metaverse on a blockchain though sags.

I earn staking yield from processing those networks. I don't know enough about what Metaverse land to buy and when I look into it it's wildly priced as far as I can tell. Same reason I don't know what animal NFT to buy but I'm happy to stake to the network for them to pay fees trading NFTs

However yes many agree that mainstream companies will adopt the metaverse much quicker.


----------



## m3s

I minted some dog NFTs on Cardano just to try smart contracts. They cost me 4-7 ADA to mint and it's basically a lottery

I listed some of the more common ones at different prices to see what sells. Eventually 1 sold for 12 ADA. Then I found a site to filter the going rates for different traits etc. Now I priced them better and sold a few more for 16-25 ADA. This was just to see how it works. I can see why some people like it but it's way too much effort to know what will sell for what

I'm far more interested in the DeFi aspects than the NFT art and metaverse. NFTs will be used for far more than animal pictures. I think Cardano is in a much better place to put governments at ease. Cardano will eventually have Digital IDs. Some of the DeFi projects I follow claim they have good relationships with the regulators. They claim there will be fiat lending in 2022

Cardano blockchain is already full and there's way more dApps about to launch. They have to scale faster than expected now


----------



## Spudd

Well, I bought in too. If Sags is in, I'm in. LOL.

I have some ADA in a ccvault.io wallet, and I staked it to a pool. Let's see what happens. I couldn't find any sundaeswap pools. I'm guessing if I want to stake it somewhere else it's easy to switch it?


----------



## m3s

Spudd said:


> I have some ADA in a ccvault.io wallet, and I staked it to a pool. Let's see what happens. I couldn't find any sundaeswap pools. I'm guessing if I want to stake it somewhere else it's easy to switch it?


It would cost .17 ADA tx to switch but you could wait until the next epoch.

It may not be worth moving especially if a smaller pool will be less consistent at producing blocks/rewards or a saturated pool will earn less rewards. You want to check how much is delegated to a pool with a site like PoolTool.io, ADApools.org or Pool.pm and also their fees

Here is the info for the SundaeSwap ISO and launch that will give extra rewards for 5 epochs starting Jan 25. There is a link to the pools there. These are mostly run by popular YouTubers etc and they will also do processing for the SundaeSwap DEX.

I don't endorse SundaeSwap as a pre-launch beta DEX however for 25 days you can earn their token for free. Personally I will probably swap them for ADA or WMT - nobody knows nothing about their token.

If it's a small market cap and climbing I might keep especially during the first 6 months or so


----------



## m3s

Empty closet punks wearing hoodies and crocs be trying to explain basic fin tech concepts to MSM and IMF elites nowadays


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483647781596282880

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483902798450380801

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483909660851720197


----------



## sags

Defi is going to have to beef up their security as hardly a day goes by and there isn't another hack somewhere.

Today there were two hacks where customers lost coins. The losses were pegged at $18 million so far.

Using Strike sounds complicated. You have to buy bitcoins to send to someone and they have to exchange the bitcoins for the local currency.

In Argentina it is even more complicated. People buy bitcoins to send to someone, they are converted to USDT and the person has to convert the USDT back to bitcoin and then to the local currency. It doesn't sound frictionless and free.


----------



## m3s

That's like saying fiat needs to beef up their security because not a single day goes by when someone isn't robbed

DeFi is a very general term not a person, organization, or group ol man


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Using Strike sounds complicated. You have to buy bitcoins to send to someone and they have to exchange the bitcoins for the local currency.
> 
> In Argentina it is even more complicated. People buy bitcoins to send to someone, they are converted to USDT and the person has to convert the USDT back to bitcoin and then to the local currency. It doesn't sound frictionless and free.


I haven't used Strike but Jack Mallers is saying you don't need to ever touch BTC. I'm not really that into BTC Lightning because it's nothing compared to smart contract networks

However I can exchange USD for USD stablecoins for free and transfer them for mere pennies already. The only frictions are from the legacy finance side. For example in Canada I don't think you can connect to many crypto exchanges without a $20-100 wire transfer from the last century tech

I move large sums of value around and I am well aware of the frictions. There is no comparison at all ol man


----------



## m3s

I just setup Strike and tried it within about a minute

Free instant USD deposit (Prime Trust custody.. pretty standard in US)
0.3% Exchange Fee into stablecoins or BTC (the legacy world charges 2-4%)
Instant transfer fees are practically zero because it uses Lightning Network of BTC
Withdrawals are instant and free again (then your wait 4 days for your legacy bank)

It requires KYC like any other fiat/crypto exchange


----------



## sags

Sounds good, but you are still only transferring crypto right ? 

The person receiving the crypto would likely have to convert it to local currency to spend it.


----------



## m3s

Yes they would have to pay 0.3% fee to exchange back to fiat. This is just the bare minimum spread. I can get lower than this but only with high volume and high liquidity exchanges

Then they need to transfer to their legacy bank and wait for their legacy bank to settle and clear. OR they realize why not skip the 0.3% fee and waiting for the legacy bank and just use the crypto.

Cash app is the #1 finance app in the US. It charges 2.2% fees to beat the typical 3% highway robbery. Strike is a free and open API for ANY other app to use


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> My computer is an old Lenova desktop with 4 Gigs of ram memory, so I need to upgrade to a new desktop to do any of this suff.


Can your motherboard accept DDR4 RAM?

I have good 16GB hyperX 3000MHz lying around


----------



## sags

It would be great if retailers accept it, but with all the different payment apps being created how many different ways to pay would a retailer need to accept ?

I haven't seen any acceptance by retailers for crypto yet. Maybe it is coming in the future, but adoption is below what is used to be.

It seems to me that large retailers are heading in the other direction. They want to create "walled gardens" where their customers can only spend in their stores.

I remember the "walled garden" internet portals like AOL that only showed the results that made them money. The Google came along.

Maybe the "Google" of crypto cash apps will come along and blow everyone else out of the water.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> They want to create "walled gardens" where their customers can only spend in their stores.
> 
> Maybe the "Google" of crypto cash apps will come along and blow everyone else out of the water.


I'm not that interested in crypto merchant payments unless the tax laws change. I don't want to have a capital gains taxable event for every coffee...

I can borrow devaluing fiat for free and even earn random crypto to spend instead tax free. This is what the elites have always done sags. Now it is accessible to everyone. Wealthy people don't spend their hard assets.. they borrow weak assets to spend.. and it has tax advantages instead

The payments tech is already here. They are targeting places like africa and south america due to the walled gardens, lobbyists, taxes etc here


----------



## m3s

@sags I found 2x8GB DDR4 RAM and 500GB SSD in my box of spares. That would probably let you run Daedalus. These are from 2017 and I will never use them

My 2011 laptop processor handles blockchain nodes no problem. The bottleneck is usually the IOPS of your data storage


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I'm not that interested in crypto merchant payments unless the tax laws change. I don't want to have a capital gains taxable event for every coffee...


I'd love a capital gain with every coffee


----------



## sags

Thanks for the offer M3s......but I think staking is way over my head.

I think I will buy some ADA in small increments over time and just HODL. It looks to be an easy thing to do on Wealthsimple.

It is highly speculative as to which current crypto will emerge as the winner, but I like the way Cardano is governed by smart serious people.


----------



## sags

Bitcoin and other crypto getting banged up, along with all the speculative tech stocks.

Netflix down 25%.......and that company has real earnings and subscription growth. Investors are panicked and heading into the "safe" stocks.


----------



## m3s

Yes with Cardano you get the feeling "the adults are in control" compared to most of the others although it is still open and community driven. It is attracting mature developers as well

Please don't buy ADA or any crypto on Wealthsimple though. Someday when you want to withdraw you cannot and you would have to sell and rebuy. I wouldn't recommend Coinbase due to its fees although Coinbase will give you free crypto for completing short lessons. I heard Ontario has banned Binance and KuCoin so I don't know what works in Ontario.

Probably best to use crypto.com but I haven't used it (crypto.com pays good yields though I believe) Kraken is good but you have to use wire transfers


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Bitcoin and other crypto getting banged up, along with all the speculative tech stocks.
> 
> Netflix down 25%.......and that company has real earnings and subscription growth. Investors are panicked and heading into the "safe" stocks.


Crypto is highly correlated to the NASDAQ when legacy investors want exposure but don't understand it

These are the times when I'm more interested in picking some up. Cardano is upgrading this week and has many upgrades to come. Ethereum will finally ditch the miners this year and then the energy narrative will change

Ethereum is generating millions in revenue per day that go to stakers and miners.. when the miners are gone the stakers and holders will benefit far more from these fees. I think the Cardano system is far more sustainable and advanced though..

It's like the beta vs vhs or bluray vs hddvd but the "stakes" are much bigger this time


----------



## Spudd

I used Coinbase but it was wicked expensive. Between the fees and the fall in the price of Cardano, my original hundred bucks is down to less than 80.


----------



## m3s

Spudd said:


> I used Coinbase but it was wicked expensive. Between the fees and the fall in the price of Cardano, my original hundred bucks is down to less than 80.


Coinbase charges a lot more than Coinbase Pro even. You should be able to easily switch to Coinbase Pro you might just have to provide ID or something

Today would be a good day to do all the Coinbase 1-5min "courses" for the free crypto. Reason is they pay in USD terms so you get more crypto if you do it when prices are lower

You'd probably get more than your $20 back for 10 mins of learning. There's also usually referral codes when you open an account


----------



## sags

There are glitches in the matrix. We must consult the Oracle.


----------



## sags

An indepth article on how the crypto world is a giant ponzi scheme and full on fraud.

It is evident from watching the bitcoin exchange the price is manipulated, but I thought it was "whales" who were doing it.

Apparently it is much more sinister than that. A company in China is responsible for much of the manipulation buying bitcoins with worthless Tether coins.

They are the "central bank of crypto".

The so called "stable coins" are supposed to have $1 USD in reserve for every coin they mint, but have almost no cash reserves. They have commercial paper IOUs from companies that may not even exist.

If there is a run on crypto, the exchanges can't pay investors. They simply don't have the money in reserve. They will have a liquidity crisis.

Worthless crypto buying worthless crypto...........just as I posted before. They are creating billions of these coins every week out of thin air.

Bitcoin and all crypto continues the downward slide. It dropped to $34K at one point in overnight trading. The manipulation is easy to pick out when it comes in to stop the decline, disappears for awhile and then comes back in again.

Nobody in their right mind jumps in and catches a falling knife repeatedly and endlessly to prop up the price momentarily.

People stand back and let it fall to the bottom and then buy it. Of course......if you are using fake free tokens.....why not ?

The "Great Dumpening" I posted about before has started and we see who is swimming naked in the pool.....as per the Oracle of Omaha.

I won't be catching a falling knife with my real money either. Best wait to see how it all unfolds.









Cryptocurrency Is a Giant Ponzi Scheme


Cryptocurrency is not merely a bad investment or speculative bubble. It’s worse than that: it’s a full-on fraud.




jacobinmag.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I won't be catching a falling knife with my real money either. Best wait to see how it all unfolds.


This is always how it goes. People wait for the dip but when it comes they decide to wait because it always looks bad.

You have the Dunning-Kruger effect where you read a bit of entertainment media but never research beyond the clickbait surface. USDT has been questioned for a long time. Most reputable exchanges/apps switched to better stablecoins eons ago

The US says they want to "protect investors" but they never do anything about USDT. They have been "investigating" it for years


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> An indepth article on how the crypto world is a giant ponzi scheme and full on fraud.


In many extraneous words you basically said a fractional reserve banking system is a bad idea

If you were confident in this you would be shorting crypto. But if you understood it you would realize you're describing the legacy system itself

I don't hold USDT and this is not new information at all. Like years old recycled clickbait


----------



## gardner

m3s said:


> I don't hold USDT


I'm curious if you think there are preferable stablecoins and why.

Meanwhile, the most capitalized stablecoin is still Tether's and much pricing of BTC and ETH and the rest is driven by transactions to USDT, and the quality of their actual collateral is germane whether one holds it or not.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> I'm curious if you think there are preferable stablecoins and why.


Algorithmic stablecoins are considered to be the best because they can be transparent, decentralized and over-collateralized

I'm not the best to explain the many algorithmic stablecoins in development because it doesn't interest me that much compared to blockchains and crypto tech. I'm just keeping tabs on the ones with the best concepts and check back later

Algorithmic stablecoins will be foundational and minting/collateralizing them earns a good yield already. Providing liquidity for stablecoin swaps is very lucrative given the volume and low price action

UST typically yields 20% and the high volume exchanges yield far more than that (depends on volume, supply/demand etc)



gardner said:


> Meanwhile, the most capitalized stablecoin is still Tether's and much pricing of BTC and ETH and the rest is driven by transactions to USDT, and the quality of their actual collateral is germane whether one holds it or not.


I agree that USDT is a problem. It's been a well known problem for a long time. USDC is considered to be much better than USDT and will surpass it anytime now

Most exchanges are pairing USDC for trades now. It's mostly the off shore highly leverages exchanges using USDT. The risk is on those who hold USDT, including those off-shore exchanges

The Federal Reserve just released 30-page report on this and it doesn't sound like they are anywhere close to launching their own CBDC. It's a good report and they are asking the right questions to US citizens.

I wouldn't be surprised if Circle ends up building or having a strong part in the Fed's CBDC. Circle is a centralized authority that can freeze assets.

From the developers I follow the regulators are not anti-digital currency at all as the corporate media will have you think

Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation


----------



## james4beach

Ethereum is now* down 53%* from where it was a few months ago and Bitcoin is *down 51%*

Weren't these supposed to be a "store of value" and protection against inflation? Since a few months ago, inflation is up, and yet these coinz have crashed.

So I guess the way coinz work is, inflation surges out of control, and they fall 50%? Makes sense to me! LOL


_Alternative explanation_: they're just gambling toys, or a massive pump-and-dump scam


----------



## m3s

BTC has been down 50% every year, always after gaining far more

@james4beach I know you understand how to zoom and and not cherry pick data. If we want to do that gold is flat over 10 years now. With gold you have to zoom out decades and BTC you have to zoom out years

If you don't like volatility stick to bonds. You could earn far more with some exposure to stablecoins though


----------



## wayward__son

Yeah, seems a bit early to gloat. This is well within normal volatility for crypto and only the most recent entrants (buyers during the last year and change) would be underwater now. Everyone else is still pretty comfy from accumulating way lower, and many of us are true believers who’ve held through 80-90% drawdowns in years past and found that selling the dump is usually -EV.

30k-ish marks the lows of last year after China banned the miners. I’d say you can start polishing your dancing shoes if/when we get down into 20ks. Certainly that is where I start sweating a bit, but it won’t stop me from cobbling together a few nickels to bid 28-29k.

And by the way, markets are forward looking. One could easily make the case that crypto is pricing in a hawkish fed and liquidity leaving the building. If J Powell loses his nerve and flips dovish at some point, you might find BTC signalling that too.


----------



## m3s

If only we could design a mathematical monetary policy instead of speculating what side of the bed JPow will wake up on this week


----------



## londoncalling

If we had a mathematical monetary policy in place how would we be able to exploit it to our benefit at the cost of the average tax payer?


----------



## sags

Bitcoin was sold for crypto, and the exchanges hold most of their reserves in crypto or sketchy IOUs in commercial paper issued by unknown companies.

Analysis released today showed that only 32% of bitcoin holders had "unrealized gains". The other 68% of bitcoin holders are "under water".

These people are trying to sell their bitcoins and get their money back. The pumpers are desperate, but they will fail.

That means the exchanges have to sell their other crypto to raise cash to pay fiat withdrawals.

The exchanges will have to delay or halt all withdrawals, panic will set in among people trying to withdraw their cash, and the market will seize up.

Crypto may be close to outright collapse, due to the sketchy unregulated funding models.


----------



## sags

m3s said:


> If only we could design a mathematical monetary policy instead of speculating what side of the bed JPow will wake up on this week


If only we could create digital tokens and NFTs and sell them to dumb people.


----------



## m3s

If only sags understood that inflation is not good news for GICs

The Dunning-Kruger effect to the extreme


----------



## m3s

The rare and short moments RSI broke this low have been good times to buy. Lowest RSI since March 2020









Meanwhile the illiquid supply continues its steady climb.









Bring on the taper tantrum


----------



## sags

Wonderland Rattled After Co-Founder Tied to Failed QuadrigaCX Exchange


A developer of the popular Avalanche money market was previously the co-founder of the infamous Canadian exchange QuadrigaCX.




www.coindesk.com


----------



## sags

How can anyone take this defi crap seriously ? I think the promoters have Disney Movie Syndrome.

_In the past 24 hours, *Popsicle Finance’s ICE* fell 22%, *Wonderland’s TIME* fell 15% and *Abracadabra’s SPELL* dropped 15% to lead losses among altcoins in an otherwise sideways crypto market, data showed. 

Investors were also concerned about* Magic Internet Money (MIM)*, a dollar-pegged stablecoin issued on the* Abracabadra Money platform*, losing its parity with the U.S. dollar. _









Tokens Related to Wonderland Developer Plunge After QuadrigaCX Revelation


Tokens of projects on the Avalanche and Ethereum networks started by Wonderland’s creator fell by as much as 22% in the past 24 hours.




www.coindesk.com


----------



## Spudd

One more thing to add to this thread, as a warning for others like me who have never used Coinbase before. I was charged $5 by my credit card, plus interest, as a "cash advance". I hadn't anticipated that. So that brings my current value from my original $100 down to $63. So far so bad!


----------



## MrMatt

Spudd said:


> One more thing to add to this thread, as a warning for others like me who have never used Coinbase before. I was charged $5 by my credit card, plus interest, as a "cash advance". I hadn't anticipated that. So that brings my current value from my original $100 down to $63. So far so bad!


Similar things with buying lottery tickets at some places.


----------



## m3s

I have warned many times not to use Coinbase

They have the worst fees by a wide margin. Coinbase Pro is far better yet still has 1.5% fees when the standard fees in crypto are 0.3% for low volume and under 0.1% for high volume

TIME, SPELL, MIM etc were also well known scams. There are scams and suckers everywhere


----------



## m3s

Shopify CEO joins Coinbase directors and integration with Shopify. This has be known unofficially for quite a while

There is speculation of another big move from a Google exec into crypto but I forget where that info is. It is basically unofficially confirmed. Most of the good devs in the space I look into are coming from big tech or major academic institutions

Time to stop fooling yourselves.


----------



## sags

Must viewing for anyone before they invest a dime into crypto.

Here is a video from someone who has worked for a long time in video game development and software design. He is a bona fide expert in the technology.

He has decided to speak out because he says it all has become a huge scam that is out of control, and it threatens the entire electronic game industry.

It is a 28 minute video that exposes what is really going on in crypto and why the promises of NFTs and the blockchain are simply not possible.

It is a very informative and entertaining presentation for anyone wanting to learn.

Chris Natsuume has an extensive list of game development credits in his resume and also has an MBA degree, so he knows what he is talking about.

_Christopher Natsuume has been in the industry since 1994, and has worked on games on PC, Xbox, Playstation 2, and most recently, online casual games. He is currently the Creative Director and co-founder of Boomzap, a leading casual game developer. He holds* a BA from the University of Texas *at Austin and an *MBA at the University of Washington, Seattle. *_


----------



## m3s

I'm not even going to watch it

People with little mental capacity think anything new is evil and needs to be banned. They wanted automobiles to be banned because they hit pedestrians and were used to rob banks. A tool is a tool. I've played the recent "Free to play games" and surprise they're all about extracting money from fools

Most people like to fall for scams whether there is blockchain involved or not. NFTs are a tool that can be used for far more things than pyramid schemes just like cars today are used the vast majority of time for productive used. Small brains will always struggle with new concepts

Blockchain and crypto is a tool that can be used to scam people. Just like a car can be used to commit a crime


----------



## sags

Chris Natsuume had viewer questions so he produced another video to explain in-game NFTs and how they are a scam.

He also explained so called 'smart contracts". As he is a CEO and busy developer he says he will only produce a couple of videos and no podcasts.

Anyone interested in gaining knowledge about crypto from an unbiased expert in the industry would benefit from the video.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Anyone interested in gaining knowledge about crypto from an unbiased expert in the industry would benefit from the video.


You said he works in the gaming industry but now you say he is unbiased to disrupting his industry? By definition he is biased

Gaming companies making billions of dollars by controlling the digital data. The concept of NFTs in gaming is that you can transfer or sell digital assets on a secondary market. Just like if I bought a physical game I could resale or transfer it to someone else. Difficult concept to understand I know

Secondary market for digital goods already exists except the gaming industry decides it's against their terms of service. Can you think why sags


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Until someone figures out how to implement Crypto in society, it will remain a speculative idea and viewed as a scam. The fact no one can trace its origin/inventor is a red flag that everyone keeps ignoring.


----------



## Tostig

Just curious are there any examples historically something was initially called a fad or a scam and

1) now it is commonly used and accepted;
or
2) the skeptics have been proven correct and it's gone and forgotten?


----------



## Mortgage u/w

Tostig said:


> Just curious are there any examples historically something was initially called a fad or a scam and
> 
> 1) now it is commonly used and accepted;
> or
> 2) the skeptics have been proven correct and it's gone and forgotten?


That's a good question and I'd be curious to know as well.

Electricity, telephone, trains, cars, internet, EV.......all things in history that were initially considered highly skeptical but I can't say people considered these a scam.


----------



## sags

Popular, sketchy and gone....

Dot mobi domain names, tax deductions for donating art or medicine to third world countries, multilevel selling schemes (Avon, Tupperware) to name a few.


----------



## sags

The videos destroy the myths of crypto and present a problem for crypto pumpers because they can't debate the facts presented there.


----------



## sags

Mortgage u/w said:


> That's a good question and I'd be curious to know as well.
> 
> Electricity, telephone, trains, cars, internet, EV.......all things in history that were initially considered highly skeptical but I can't say people considered these a scam.


Where people really highly skeptical of those things ? It seems to me that people adopted them very quickly.

The lack of public adoption for crypto after over 10 years is a warning sign. There is less public adoption today than there was years ago.


----------



## sags

Crypto as an alternative currency..........fail.

Crypto as a store of value..........fail.

Crypto can be used to buy crap in video games and transfer it to other games and platforms.........fail.

What will be their next scam ?


----------



## sags

m3s said:


> You said he works in the gaming industry but now you say he is unbiased to disrupting his industry? By definition he is biased
> 
> Gaming companies making billions of dollars by controlling the digital data. *The concept of NFTs in gaming is that you can transfer or sell digital assets on a secondary market. *Just like if I bought a physical game I could resale or transfer it to someone else. Difficult concept to understand I know
> 
> Secondary market for digital goods already exists except the gaming industry decides it's against their terms of service. Can you think why sags


An NFT has no value on a secondary market if you can't use it in a different game because it is technically incompatible within the game.

Do you really believe that game companies and developers are just going to let people buy "stuff" somewhere else and just drop it into their games ?

Sure....some guy buys a nuclear weapon NFT on the secondary market and then goes into the Call of Duty game and blows up all the other players.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

sags said:


> Where people really highly skeptical of those things ? It seems to me that people adopted them very quickly.
> 
> The lack of public adoption for crypto after over 10 years is a warning sign. There is less public adoption today than there was years ago.


Maybe not as highly skeptical as we would think......but I assume some people were to some extent.

However you make a good point that it didn't take 10 years+ to convince people that Electricity was a good idea.


----------



## m3s

Mortgage u/w said:


> Maybe not as highly skeptical as we would think......but I assume some people were to some extent.
> 
> However you make a good point that it *didn't take 10 years+ to convince people that Electricity was a good idea*.


Benjamin Franklin started research on electricity in 1767. Over 100 years later Thomas Edison ran some kind of campaign to scare the public by electrocuting pets. This was a business trying to promote his own technology and discredit another. When I was in Afghanistan there were rural people who still believed electricity was evil and dangerous. So I disagree that it didn't take 10 years when it took over a hundred years just to figure out a way to implement it into society

People were skeptical the automobile ran over pedestrians. Society had to adjust to these much faster devices on the streets, learn to look both ways, establish rules of the road etc. The horse riding industry would lose business. The government took a long time to remove rules for transportation companies that made no sense for automobiles and it took until the '90s before seatbelts became mandatory. The amish in NA and many people around the world still use horses as a means of transportation today

I remember how skeptical people were of the internet in the '90s. It took decades to really implement into society but that was fast compared to past radical changes. Crypto is actually being adopted far faster than any previous S curve adoption. Many believe we are at about 1995 with crypto in terms of the internet adoption. I was in school and teachers constantly discredited any online research or interest in the topic because they were terrified of hackers, scammers, pedophiles and porn on the evil www

The majority of people will always be very skeptical of change and then forget they were once it becomes mainstream. It seems to be the more dominant personality that people are cautious about change from what is familiar and established in their highly repetitive mundane lives or they just don't have the time or mental capacity to think. The business interests who are threatened by change always know before the general public and they always campaign to enforce this ignorance with marketing


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> An NFT has no value on a secondary market if you can't use it in a different game because it is technically incompatible within the game.
> 
> Do you really believe that game companies and developers are just going to let people buy "stuff" somewhere else and just drop it into their games ?
> 
> Sure....some guy buys a nuclear weapon NFT on the secondary market and then goes into the Call of Duty game and blows up all the other players.


You just don't have the ability to consider change. You're trying to figure out how to fit your horse saddle on top of the the automobile and worried it will damage your spurs

These problems you bring up are just what you always do for every topic. Bring negativity about anything besides socialism and handouts for the people who can't adapt to the real world. Most people like sags will looks for a million ways that the internet or automobile is bad instead of asking how it might be useful. They just want the government to hand them some money instead of trying to make something productive for society.

Most people just don't like new ideas. Especially if they work in the video game industry that makes billions off addicted kids and someone wants to try something different lol


----------



## m3s

When I was in highschool I self taught myself to make websites back when it was much harder to do. I made some websites for local businesses but most just laughed that they didn't need one. I was envisioning online retail before ebay or amazon but I realized it was just too early.

I had an older friend running a web hosting service for businesses who barely understood what the internet or web hosting was. He ended up scamming millions of dollars selling playstations online. It was national news and he disappeared. That made me realize I should get a normal job because society just wasn't ready

That guy changed his name and later ran a similar scam selling phones online when they came out. You might remember the national news. Society painted online retail as a scam again. In reality there were a few criminals and a lot of morons willing to hand over credit card information.

Yet 10 years later and everyone is buying everything online. Yes it took literally decades but you don't remember. Some people were scared to shop online until the pandemic. Most of the world's population has probably never shopped online today


----------



## Tostig

m3s said:


> ...
> 
> People were skeptical the automobile ran over pedestrians. Society had to adjust to these much faster devices on the streets, learn to look both ways, establish rules of the road etc. ...The government took a long time to remove rules for transportation companies that made no sense for automobiles and it took until the '90s before seatbelts became mandatory. The amish in NA and many people around the world still use horses as a means of transportation today
> 
> ...


The skeptics were right about the automobile running over pedestrians. Today, automobile collisions with pedestrians and with each other are so common it's as if bad driving has become an acceptable norm. And it's those people who call for safer roads that are now looked upon with skepticism. Yes, I'm old enough to remember the skepticism over the mandatory seatbelt law. But that wasn't a fad. It was a necessity.


----------



## m3s

Tostig said:


> The skeptics were right about the automobile running over pedestrians. Today, automobile collisions with pedestrians and with each other are so common it's as if bad driving has become an acceptable norm. And it's those people who call for safer roads that are now looked upon with skepticism. Yes, I'm old enough to remember the skepticism over the mandatory seatbelt law. But that wasn't a fad. It was a necessity.


Yes it takes a long time to integrate something so radical into society and it is very dangerous for some people. Some people need to be bubble wrapped.

I have never been in an at fault accident but I see a lot of bad drivers especially as a motorcycle rider. I am aware of the risks and rewards. I see lots of people being scammed/hacked in crypto but they took reckless risks or ignored very clear warning signs for a long time. Not everybody is equipped to handle the wild west

So should we have avoided the wild west and stayed in Europe? Should we have avoided exploring space? Should we ban all cars because some people don't have the basic capacity to look both ways before crossing the street? Should we ban motorcycles because some people are too reckless?

I wore my seatbelt before it was mandatory. Some people just need to be forced to help themselves. From what I remember it was old people with old habits who refused.


----------



## Mortgage u/w

There's a difference though in selling an invention or idea to society vs selling an invention in an open market where the world can gamble with and hope it leads to something great. The initial idea of crypto was to replace currency but it changes course as time goes on and depending on who you ask. I am not convinced that all people gambling with crypto believe they are investing in a product or even a great invention for that matter. I believe they are simply gambling - everyone is doing it, then it must be a great idea, without even knowing what it does. And those that think they know what crypto is - they really don't cause there is not tangible outline of what purpose it will serve. Then there's that fact that no one knows who created it.....that one just baffles me.

Sure, times have changed and imposing an invention or idea has become much more complex than it once was. We definitely forget, or in most cases, not even aware of the struggles that some inventions endured in history. And maybe the skeptics of crypto will be proven wrong one day. Anything is possible. But for now, my gamble will be to stick with what I understand. I don't feel the need to put money on crypto nor fear the notion of "missing out" should it turn out to be something great.


----------



## nathan79

Mortgage u/w said:


> We definitely forget, or in most cases, not even aware of the struggles that some inventions endured in history. And maybe the skeptics of crypto will be proven wrong one day. Anything is possible.


Remember the saying "history is written by the victors" -- I think there's some truth to that. When something becomes successful, it changes how people view and interpret that thing in a historical context. For those who remember the early internet, if you had a personal website before around 2000 you were viewed as a nerd. Less than 10 years later, you weren't hip unless you had a profile on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter or some other social network. People have short memories, and history doesn't pay much attention to the skeptics who were proven wrong. Most will come around in time, and those who don't will fade into the background.


----------



## m3s

Mortgage u/w said:


> There's a difference though in selling an invention or idea to society vs selling an invention in an open market where the world can gamble with and hope it leads to something great. The initial idea of crypto was to replace currency but it changes course as time goes on and depending on who you ask. I am not convinced that all people gambling with crypto believe they are investing in a product or even a great invention for that matter. I believe they are simply gambling - everyone is doing it, then it must be a great idea, without even knowing what it does. And those that think they know what crypto is - they really don't cause there is not tangible outline of what purpose it will serve. Then there's that fact that no one knows who created it.....that one just baffles me.


You're talking about the hype phase where all the people who thought crypto was pointless yesterday are now rushing to buy today based on its price and the idea of getting rich overnight. This is basically the dot com bubble phase. The price action really has very little to do with the underlying tech but most people seem to think that's all its about

I was on the internet in the '90s building websites and trying to convince local businesses to build websites before the dot com bubble or I even knew about stocks. The average person had just as much skepticism and misunderstanding as they do about crypto today. Even when I started working I would recommend using the internet for many things and be told the internet was not trustworthy, amateur and full of sketchy bs etc (and then 5 years later everyone was doing exactly what I recommended) People just don't like change and don't follow what is changing around them.

The rest of your arguments are at least 5 years old in awareness and not really worth addressing. I do know what blockchain is. I use them and run several nodes. I've been using DeFi since it came out. Blockchain is just a tool like the internet is. How it develops depends on many factors. The average person seems to think that things just happen overnight

Most people don't know how the internet works because it's so easy for anyone to use today. That wasn't always the case at all. Crypto is even more technical and again most people could not use it safely. Eventually there will be a better human interface so that more people can safely use it without having to understand how it works.


----------



## m3s

I participated in seed funding a DeFi project last year. It's something I actually want to use and the team is very experience and professional. I have access to the tests and chat often with the devs. One of them is in Toronto. They have deals in Europe but are avoiding NA until later (Canadian market is just oblivious for now)

By this point I hoped to have a certain return and it's more than 20x higher than expected even with the market down for months. I could try to dump it now while there's hype to get into a new project but it's not even about the price. I actually want to support and use the end product. It's not even a question of if to me it is just a question of when

DeFi projects are buying banks in Europe now. They have more than enough money to fight litigation and lobby the US government but most are just focusing elsewhere instead. There are teams with lots of disruptive business experience and there is tech talent bleeding over from big tech everywhere you look

All of this stuff happens below most people's radar. If you just watch the MSM you won't be informed at all. US government says they want to protect investors but it's very clear they want to protect the lobbyists. US will end with polarizing policies state to state and a dysfunctional basket case at the national level at least until the boomers retire


----------



## Mortgage u/w

m3s said:


> You're talking about the hype phase where all the people who thought crypto was pointless yesterday are now rushing to buy today based on its price and the idea of getting rich overnight. This is basically the dot com bubble phase. The price action really has very little to do with the underlying tech but most people seem to think that's all its about
> ......
> The rest of your arguments are at least 5 years old in awareness and not really worth addressing. I do know what blockchain is. I use them and run several nodes. I've been using DeFi since it came out. Blockchain is just a tool like the internet is. How it develops depends on many factors. The average person seems to think that things just happen overnight
> .....


Yes, I am talking about the hype around crypto and the idea of investing to get rich overnight. Unfortunately, many people are still viewing this as an investment to get rich rather than a technology.

I do not doubt the technology behind it is genius. And I say that even while I don't fully understand it. I trust that there is a great product behind all the hype. 

My argument may be old and I tend to believe the majority of society is in the same space as me. When we hear Crypto or Bitcoin, we automatically associate it to "the currency replacement" and base our conclusions off that.

In order for Crypto to be accepted, it needs to be understood. And I don't see anyone trying to "sell" it for what it could potentially be used for.


----------



## m3s

Mortgage u/w said:


> In order for Crypto to be accepted, it needs to be understood. And I don't see anyone trying to "sell" it for what it could potentially be used for.


There is a huge marketing void. Part of that is because the younger generation sees marketing as shilling scams. Another part is crypto teams are naturally very poor communicators. Another part is that crypto is just not ready to scale or usability for mainstream yet. This is all slowly changing

The team I mentioned I seed funded last year does have a professional experienced CMO and marketing team. They are targeting mainstream in the long term. This is very counter to most crypto projects who typically have no marketing teams. They also have a legal team and finance team that is working with regulators and financial institutions. That stuff takes time to work out but it has been going on behind the scenes for awhile. It depends on the country but the regulators are actually making progress.

You also need to understand that the legacy establishment more or less owns the mediums of communication and have deep roots in government lobbies. So crypto is mostly an underground movement because information is easily suppressed. Google controls YouTube/search and suppressed crypto content up until about 2021.


----------



## m3s

BTC made a pretty clean break of this trend line today. Where does this 10 year old dead scam go next?


----------



## sags

Yup.........bitcoin is hanging in there. I think it likely the pumpers have jumped in because some of them have no other choice.

If bitcoin goes down, so does the President of El Salvador, Michael Saylor, Coinbase, and anyone else who HODLs or has any business connections with bitcoins.

I see Jim Cramer is pumping crypto again. Coinbase and other crypto companies are big ad buyers on CNBC.

In fact, they won't even invite cypto critics like Peter Schiff on their shows anymore.


----------



## wayward__son

"Hanging in" at fifty thousand Canadian Dollars. We've come a long way frens.


----------



## sags

Yes it is is surprising, but I think there are underlying reasons for the stickiness of the price of bitcoins.

I think there are two main factors involved. First bitcoins can be bought and sold in tiny fractions of one bitcoin, which encourages people in poor countries and young people with scarce financial resources to participate.

It is similar to an expensive stock that "splits" to make the stocks more accessible to retail investors. Berkshire Hathaway has split several times and it is questionable if the price would be $476,374 USD if people had to buy a whole Class A share. The pool of buyers would be greatly diminished. I read that Alphabet is going to split their stock 20 - 1 and although it doesn't add any immediate value to individual stocks, it does make them available to more retail investors which provides more competition for shares in a larger pool of buyers and often drives up the price.

Secondly, most bitcoins are held by a few people. They are the early adopters who hold tens of thousands (or more) bitcoins they obtained for almost no cost. It is in their best interest to buy small amounts of bitcoins at higher prices to push the price up. They are also the "institutional" buyers like Michael Saylor from Micro Strategy who holds a lot of bitcoins within his company and is forced to support the price of bitcoin lest he have to report huge losses to shareholders.

Another factor is the constant hype on social media for crypto of all kinds. It is pumped across many social media platforms relentlessly, and many young people view it as a way to get rich without working.

I could be totally wrong, but so far I see no utility for bitcoins or crypto tokens at all and wonder what the "value" is based on if not the above reasons.


----------



## sags

Governments are also starting to move into central bank digital money.

India announced a 30% tax on crypto profits and that they will introduce a central bank digital coin.

The Boston Fed and MIT are also developing a "model" for a US Treasury central bank digital money.

There is money to be made buying and selling bitcoins and other crypto today, but I don't think there is a long term future for it.



https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/boston-fed-mit-sketch-out-theoretical-fed-crypto-coin-224631196.html


----------



## Spudd

Question. I staked my Cardano to the BITA pool. I was able to look up its history and see that for epoch 317 it found some blocks which should mean it distributed rewards, right? But I got zero. Why is this?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Governments are also starting to move into central bank digital money.
> 
> India announced a 30% tax on crypto profits and that they will introduce a central bank digital coin.
> 
> The Boston Fed and MIT are also developing a "model" for a US Treasury central bank digital money.
> 
> There is money to be made buying and selling bitcoins and other crypto today, but I don't think there is a long term future for it.
> 
> 
> 
> https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/boston-fed-mit-sketch-out-theoretical-fed-crypto-coin-224631196.html


Nothing new here sags. Governments started to move into CBDC for a long time already. Let me know when they get somewhere concrete lol

India banned crypto last year lol. Like I said why would you ban something that you can tax. MIT has some of the the most advanced crypto tech. MIT has been putting their diplomas on the bitcoin blockchain for years. You're probably referring to Algorand which has been around for years. Nothing new at all

CBDC is not a threat to bitcoin at all. CBDC will just be a digital USD. Great for trading and spending. I think we went over all of this 1000 times already ol man



sags said:


> I could be totally wrong, but so far I see no utility for bitcoins or crypto tokens at all and wonder what the "value" is based on if not the above reasons.


Peter Schiff is pretty smart but nobody in the younger generation listens to him. He couldn't even convince his own son not to buy bitcoin. I've seen him give in to bitcoin on recent podcasts.

Unless life extension technology arrives soon, gold will be sold off as it gets passed on to a younger generation who want digital assets instead.



Spudd said:


> Question. I staked my Cardano to the BITA pool. I was able to look up its history and see that for epoch 317 it found some blocks which should mean it distributed rewards, right? But I got zero. Why is this?


Yea there's a delay of 1 or 2 epochs for the rewards.

They might display in your wallet but they won't transfer until you withdraw them. There's no reason to spend a tx fee just to withdraw because they don't expire. Cardano can do 1000s of outputs in a single transaction now so next time you do a transaction it will just transfer the rewards to you.

Kraken just release a detailed free report on Cardano if you like that sort of thing

Cardano: A New Generation in Smart Contract Platform Design


----------



## wayward__son

Well well well. KPMG has joined the party: KPMG in Canada adds Bitcoin and Ethereum to its corporate treasury It's only Canada but this feels like a bigger moment for crypto than Microstrategy or even possibly El Salvador. As much of a crypto bull as I am, I did not have Big 4 assurance, tax and advisory firm announcing the holding of BTC and ETH in corporate treasury on my Q1 2022 monetary tightening everything bubble bursting bingo card. There is some ESG pandering in there and this is an obvious digital asset industry business development play, and the press release does not tell us if the investment is material, but nevertheless. Big moment IMO


----------



## Spudd

Update on my lack of rewards - they appeared when I checked on the wallet this morning. It was unclear earlier but now they are definitely there. Woo!


----------



## m3s

wayward__son said:


> Well well well. KPMG has joined the party: KPMG in Canada adds Bitcoin and Ethereum to its corporate treasury It's only Canada but this feels like a bigger moment for crypto than Microstrategy or even possibly El Salvador. As much of a crypto bull as I am, I did not have Big 4 assurance, tax and advisory firm announcing the holding of BTC and ETH in corporate treasury on my Q1 2022 monetary tightening everything bubble bursting bingo card. There is some ESG pandering in there and this is an obvious digital asset industry business development play, and the press release does not tell us if the investment is material, but nevertheless. Big moment IMO


Game theory is kicking in when you least expect it. Some exposure is logical and reasonable at this point

If they cared about ESG they could have used something like BitFarms that use Quebec hydroelectric and are also better value than other miners. Or they could have diversified into the any upcoming blockchains that will use 99% less energy than mining. Ethereum will ditch mining soon anyways.

There's many clues that larger countries and companies are involved. Big players don't want to shake the market while they accumulate


----------



## m3s

Wells Fargo 8 page report

We understand the "too late to invest" argument but do not subscribe to it









Since we were talking about electricity this chart depicts it took decades to be adopted just in the US. Look how slow the automobile was

The internet was much faster


----------



## londoncalling

Thanks for sharing those charts @m3s. Adoption and use is not necessarily aligned with investment and return. It is interesting to see that adoption took off following the dot.com bubble being popped. I think tech adoption gets faster as tech evolves. If we look to the tech of19th C I imagine the adoption time lines to reach adoption would be stretched further than the time needed in the 20thC. In the first half of the 20thC adoption seemed to stall in the 60%s. In the latter half the stall came in the 80%s.


----------



## m3s

londoncalling said:


> Adoption and use is not necessarily aligned with investment and return.


I don't think any single chart or parameter aligns with investment and return. I'm just handing out crumbs to see how people respond not my entire thesis

I don't think the public had any opportunity to invest in those s curves as early as crypto. People think we are at 50% adoption like the dot com but we are not

Financial services are the biggest companies in Canada and DeFi can disrupt them. Now people will laugh without realizing how long that would take


----------



## m3s

Russian and Indian central banks recently declared crypto currencies illegal. Turns out central banks don't have that authority.

Google translate from Russian media

The government and the Bank of Russia have agreed on a future regime for the circulation of cryptocurrencies in Russia: by February 18, they will prepare a draft law on the circulation of digital currencies in the Russian Federation, in which cryptocurrencies are recognized as an analogue of currencies, and not digital financial assets (DFA).

Their circulation in the legal sector will be possible only with full identification, through the banking system or licensed intermediaries. Fines will be introduced for the illegal acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment. This implies that crypto will be a legal means of payment in Russia.

The possession of cryptocurrency in the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and transactions with it are not prohibited - but only through the "organizer of the digital currency exchange system" (a bank with a universal license) or a p2p exchanger legalized in the Russian Federation.


----------



## sags

So the Russians hope to use cryptocurrencies to skirt financial sanctions ?

The Russian obligarchs must be getting nervous.


----------



## sags

The US and MIT are developing their own Fed digital money.

The writing is on the wall for the non-central bank tokens.

Governments won't be giving up control over their own currencies.


----------



## m3s

I have 2 colleagues at MIT. One of them was investigated by the government for involvement with foreign currency years ago. Now he studies cryptocurrency for the government at MIT. How the turn tables

Of course the central bank won't give up control of their own currency. Central banks have been talking about CBDC for years now. They will still be talking about them for years to comes sags. It's like how eventually the government made a web page and eventually the government switch from Fax to Netfile in 2001. These things take time sags

A CBDC is a threat to the intermediary private banks. It would allow us to optionally exchange our fiat for CBDC and control our own CBDC digital wallet. Before you have a stroke think of how email partially replaced the post office business. It's a tool and many boomers didn't get an email account for decades

Guess what sags I own many currencies besides CAD today. I would love a CAD CBDC so I can finally ditch the archaic intermediary banks. Most people including the banks have this completely backwards. Don't keep hurting yourself saggy man the CBDCs are very good for digital currency adoption not the other way around.

If anything the writing is on the wall for the boomer banks. They should be reinventing and modernizing as we speak but they are too busy swimming in fiat profits. My local bank was already converted to a EV charger parking lot.


----------



## m3s

XRP is up 50% this week outpacing everything else even though it has been in court with the SEC forever

The judge just granted a number of motions to unseal SEC documents about the case. Maybe the SEC insiders know what's about to be revealed and are packing their bags

Same thing happened a year ago ahead of the government announcing the boomer banks could trade and hold crypto


----------



## Jimmy

m3s said:


> XRP is up 50% this week outpacing everything else even though it has been in court with the SEC forever
> 
> The judge just granted a number of motions to unseal SEC documents about the case. Maybe the SEC insiders know what's about to be revealed and are packing their bags
> 
> Same thing happened a year ago ahead of the government announcing the boomer banks could trade and hold crypto


Hi M3s, 

Is there a debit card in Canada for USDC that pays 9%? plmk


----------



## m3s

Jimmy said:


> Is there a debit card in Canada for USDC that pays 9%? plmk


Voyager is supposed to come to Canada. I haven't really followed how close that is

Apple will also unlock NFC payments for apps in the US. This would allow apps to skip the credit/debat card system with direct transfers app to app. There are so many fintech apps and payment rails getting traction in the US right now

Don't hold your breath in Canada. Our GDP is 50% RE and that's all we care about


----------



## Jimmy

m3s said:


> Voyager is supposed to come to Canada. I haven't really followed how close that is
> 
> Apple will also unlock NFC payments for apps in the US. This would allow apps to skip the credit/debat card system with direct transfers app to app. There are so many fintech apps and payment rails getting traction in the US right now
> 
> Don't hold your breath in Canada. Our GDP is 50% RE and that's all we care about


Thanks. That 9% sounds like a great deal for just parking cash. There is some currency risk if the USD tanks though.


----------



## m3s

I made a thread here before about Celsius. It yields 8.5% on TCAD and USDC etc.

If you just want to park USD you can get 19.4% on anchor protocol. UST has been battle tested by a few major drawdowns now and held its peg. It's considered the best algorithmic stablecoin for now. USDC is basically run by a US company. Any US company is kind of at the whims of the political fodder (goes for Celsius as well)

Personally I think better algorithmic stablecoins are coming this year. You're not late at all


----------



## m3s

Where's all the bond lovers?

El Salvador's $1B Bitcoin bond will be issued Mar 15-20 and pay 6.5%

It will be used to develop renewable energy from a volcano to mine bitcoin


----------



## Thal81

That's so hilarious I don't know where to start 
edit: I was quoting a post that was deleted, so please ignore.


----------



## Lephturn

m3s said:


> I made a thread here before about Celsius. It yields 8.5% on TCAD and USDC etc.
> 
> If you just want to park USD you can get 19.4% on anchor protocol. UST has been battle tested by a few major drawdowns now and held its peg. It's considered the best algorithmic stablecoin for now. USDC is basically run by a US company. Any US company is kind of at the whims of the political fodder (goes for Celsius as well)
> 
> Personally I think better algorithmic stablecoins are coming this year. You're not late at all



I'll dig into anchor protocol. Weather UST or USDC everything has risk associated with it. It is not exactly clear that UST is actually backed 1:1 with USD afaik. I haven't worked it all out yet but DeFi insurance to cover the protocol, hacking, and rug pull risks is looking quite reasonable. I am liquidity mining in DFX pools at the moment but fairly small. Once I can protect it all with DeFi insurance I will scale up.

In terms of cards I use Shakepay. Virtual prepaid Visa card I use through Apple Pay. Over the holidays I was getting 4% "cash back" where the cash back is in Bitcoin. That promotion ended and it's back to 2% now but I also had several purchases "Shakepaid" where they randomly gave me back 100% of the cost of the transaction in Bitcoin. But the big advantage is that this card seems to have NO tap limit. My bank Visa with a 20k limit can't tap more than $100 at the grocery store. That's ludicrous. I have 3 kids, that's useless to me. But my Shakepay card I can tap with my Apple Watch (or iPhone) (and you guys on Android can use Google Pay) for any amount up to my daily maximum of $3,000. That is worth it right there for me.


----------



## m3s

UST is not backed by any USD. It's an algorithmic stablecoin pegged to the value of USD backed by LUNA reserve. You are thinking of USDT which is not transparent about backing. USDT is backed by a company called Tether and USDC is backed by Circle. Both Tether and Circle can seize funds for the government when asked

Insurance is interesting and is being developed by several DeFi protocols now. You will be able to earn yield and fees by providing capital for the insurance pool. I'm also liquidity mining and it's extremely lucrative but also far more complex. Impermanent loss and taxes make it a lot more difficult to manage and this forum is still digesting the basics

I haven't used a crypto "cash back" card yet but several forum members are using crypto.com it pays more back but you have to stake their CRO. I like how Voyager's pre-card can spend USDC that earns 9% at the same time but who knows when that will come to Canada. "Soon"

I think contactless payments were raised during COVID though. My groceries are often more than $100 USD and my Visa on Apple Pay has always worked. It's probably like $250 but maybe it depends on the retailer


----------



## m3s

Why is Bloomberg Intelligence releasing reports on scams now?

The Buck, Bitcoin and Ethereum Feb 2022 edition

-Bitcoin on its way to becoming the benchmark global digital collateral
-Bitcoin volatility decreasing from 8x NASDAQ100 to 3x with increased adoption
-Ethereum is the primary platform for crypto dollars and tokens
-US will take years to study and approve the US CBDC
-Doge coins will be purged like pets.com


----------



## m3s

Warren Buffet's BRK, longtime critics of cryptocurrency "rat poison" dumped $1.8B Visa and $1.3B Mastercard and added $1B exposure to Nubank in Brazil

I guess Buffet is either warming up to the digitization of financial services and FinTech crypto services, or he didn't do his research?


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Warren Buffet's BRK, longtime critics of cryptocurrency "rat poison" dumped $1.8B Visa and $1.3B Mastercard and added $1B exposure to Nubank in Brazil
> 
> I guess Buffet is either warming up to the digitization of financial services and FinTech crypto services, or he didn't do his research?


Or Buffet didn't make that trade. 
Honestly it makes more sense for the various managers to critique or bounce ideas off him, instead of having Warren dig into the details.

he's old, the new management team has been running most of the show for years now.


----------



## MK7GTI

Interesting conversation. 
I've been listing to the PBD podcast for quite some time now. He's had some incredible guests on in the last 18 months.


----------



## m3s

The boomers are used to 30 second soundbites of mainstream propaganda

No way they will listen to a modern day 2hr podcast


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> The boomers are used to 30 second soundbites of mainstream propaganda
> 
> No way they will listen to a modern day 2hr podcast


Yeah, I wouldn't be comparing the attention span of boomers to the tiktok generation.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, I wouldn't be comparing the attention span of boomers to the tiktok generation.


Joe Rogan podcasts are hours long

He has the largest audience in the world. Average age is 24 from what I can find. Seems low but it's not boomers. They are busy watching legacy media echo chambers

TikTok is for validation seeking girls and simps. Boomers had pin up girl magazines or something


----------



## m3s

Putin signs decree to prohibit leaving Russia with more than $10,000 in foreign currency

Other measures Putin ordered this week included obligating Russian exporters to sell 80% of their revenues in foreign currency, prohibiting Russian residents from providing nonresidents with foreign currency under loan agreements and from depositing foreign currency into foreign bank accounts

Crypto is economic freedom


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Joe Rogan podcasts are hours long


And the 10 million people who listen to his podcast are a tiny fraction of the population.

If people actually listened to his podcast, they'd get a much more sophisticated understanding of what's going on.

I thought the Bernie Sanders episode was actually quite good, and he's not quite the person the media make him out to be.


----------



## sags

Major rug pull for defi investors as the "Godfather" of defi deletes his tweets, closes his Twitter account and says he is done with the 25 defi crypto services he developed and maintained ?

Wonderland, Abracadabra.......and many others got smoked on the news.

Bitcoin is also struggling. It can't stay above $40K and seems to be in a holding pattern before the next leg down.......likely to the $28K range.









DeFi ‘Godfather’ Cronje quits as TVL and tokens tank for related projects


Andre Cronje deactivated his Twitter account and officially left the crypto space with Anton Nell from Fantom, leaving about 25 services to either shut down or continue on.




cointelegraph.com


----------



## m3s

You're reading crypto tabloids now? You can read straight from the devs themselves on twitter or discord. By the time it hits the tabloids it's sensationalized old news

He basically put that entire ecosystem value up when he started developing for it. I looked into it back then and saw it's a fork of ethereum that lacks the security and decentralization. There are even better forks of ethereum and he was also known to disappear before.

The number of devs in crypto has skyrocketed but that ecosystem barely has any. Vast majority of the devs are in the bigger more established ecosystems.


----------



## milhouse

m3s said:


> If you just want to park USD you can get 19.4% on anchor protocol. UST has been battle tested by a few major drawdowns now and held its peg. It's considered the best algorithmic stablecoin for now. USDC is basically run by a US company. Any US company is kind of at the whims of the political fodder (goes for Celsius as well)
> 
> Personally I think better algorithmic stablecoins are coming this year. You're not late at all


Was reading a bitcoin article in the G&M that made a reference to a fear that UST stablecoin could lose its peg to the USD. Some additional googling of articles on UST seem to indicate that it is having trouble maintaining its peg the last few days and has required backers to issue loans (??) to support the value of UST? Just trying to understand the risk with that high yield as cracks may be appearing.
Am I correct in that one "buys" UST which would then be loaned out with you getting yield. But the risk is that if UST loses it's peg to the USD, then when you try to sell/convert your UST back to USD/CAD it won't be worth as much as you orginally bought it for? 
Also trying to understand the relationship between UST's ability to stay pegged to the USD and the price of bitcoin. UST seems dependent on its sister token Luna (?) whose value does float, to help maintain its peg? And is Luna dependent on bitcoin to from a valuation/backing perspective?? Basically, what's causing the unstability of the 1:1 peg?
What happens if backers didn't provide loans to support to the value of UST? Would the value of UST lose its peg to the USD and continue to drop?


----------



## james4beach

milhouse said:


> Also trying to understand the relationship between UST's ability to stay pegged to the USD and the price of bitcoin. UST seems dependent on its sister token Luna (?) whose value does float, to help maintain its peg? And is Luna dependent on bitcoin to from a valuation/backing perspective??


This bizarre, convoluted game tells you all you need to know. The crypto world is full of this kind of weird and unnecessary complexity. That's the huge warning sign.

I suspect that as this liquidity crunch (underway now) continues, crypto schemes will start to unravel and we'll all be astounded at what's been going on behind the scenes. Keep in mind that these crypto people also have their own "shadow-banking" system of lending money, using crypto as collateral. Lots of weird, unregulated stuff with many anonymous players.

In all seriousness, I think this crypto stuff has been a kind of fever dream of the last 5 years and in a few years, many are going to ask themselves -- what the HECK was I thinking?


----------



## sags

The complexity also creates the need for centralized "gatekeepers" to keep it all functioning and enable a layman to use it.

Any security weakness within the chain results in frauds on a massive scale.

A criminal organization can't hold up a bank and walk out with $100 million dollars.

Aside from the bank not holding that much cash, the robbers would need forklifts, trucks, and time to move the cash due to the weight.

Crypto makes it a lot easier for criminals. A big pile of cash in one place to access and transfer somewhere in the world to wash it and make it disappear.

All it requires are some computer clicks from a server in some far off country with no laws, and the money is gone forever.

Dealing in large volumes of cash has always presented problems for criminals, all they way back to the days of Prohibition, gangsters, and the mafia.

They can't just deposit trucloads of cash into a bank without raising suspicions, so they had to find ways to launder the money through legitimate businesses.

In many cases, it was tax evasion that put gangsters like Al Capone and mafia members into prison.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> In all seriousness, I think this crypto stuff has been a kind of fever dream of the last 5 years and in a few years, many are going to ask themselves -- what the HECK was I thinking?


I'm up over 10x on ethereum at these "disaster" prices james and this was considered an insanely high price hit for the first time just a year ago... also we were at these prices in Jan of this year. But ok

I think you need to give these things more time it's still very early. Most people lacked vision for the internet in 1995. Most people just lack vision and imagination these days



milhouse said:


> Also trying to understand the relationship between UST's ability to stay pegged to the USD and the price of bitcoin. UST seems dependent on its sister token Luna (?) whose value does float, to help maintain its peg? And is Luna dependent on bitcoin to from a valuation/backing perspective?? Basically, what's causing the unstability of the 1:1 peg?
> What happens if backers didn't provide loans to support to the value of UST? Would the value of UST lose its peg to the USD and continue to drop?


Yes I'm watching UST and LUNA as it is the first major algorithmic stablecoin. I have followed it but never bought into it as there are already better algorithmic stablecoins being tested now

UST is minted by burning LUNA and vice versa. It's one of the hardest concepts to understand as the supply and marketcap can change so much during these periods of volatility. These times are important to watch and learn from

LUNA is not decentralized enough yet because of how much Do Kwon controls and this lack of decentralization is showing now. Do Kwon was buying up BTC to back UST in the $40ks and now he's dumping BTC to save UST in the $30ks.

This is not an algorithmic protocol it's a young billionaire with human emotions. An algorithmic stablecoin will need to function on mathematical algorithms. Again there are already better ones coming


----------



## sags

Where is the money from the Vancouver QuadrigaCX exchange ?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Where is the money from the Vancouver QuadrigaCX exchange ?


That's not crypto it's a central exchange. Your brain clearly does not hold things we discussed many times


----------



## sags

As the number of frauds, scams, and failures continues to mount, saying they are just bad examples of crypto loses credibility.

Where is the crypto from Quadriga ? It should be readily available information on the bitcoin blockchain......so where is it ?

I guess you admit that the blockchain doesn't record all transactions and is therefore worthless techology.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> This bizarre, convoluted game tells you all you need to know. The crypto world is full of this kind of weird and unnecessary complexity. That's the huge warning sign.
> 
> I suspect that as this liquidity crunch (underway now) continues, crypto schemes will start to unravel and we'll all be astounded at what's been going on behind the scenes. Keep in mind that these crypto people also have their own "shadow-banking" system of lending money, using crypto as collateral. Lots of weird, unregulated stuff with many anonymous players.
> 
> In all seriousness, I think this crypto stuff has been a kind of fever dream of the last 5 years and in a few years, many are going to ask themselves -- *what the HECK was I thinking?*


 ... millions, billions, and gazillions ... of zeros. And I want everyone to "share" in on my wealth!!!! Only if you believe in it. LMAO.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Where is the crypto from Quadriga ? It should be readily available information on the bitcoin blockchain......so where is it ?
> 
> I guess you admit that the blockchain doesn't record all transactions and is therefore worthless techology.


So you still haven't learned the difference between a centralized exchange and a decentralized blockchain

Quadriga was not a DEX. Not that you have the capacity to understand (because we've gone over this many times)


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Where is the money from the Vancouver QuadrigaCX exchange ?


You keep raising this and we keep telling you.

It is in the bank accounts of the guys they sent the money to.
There never was a QuadrigaCX exchange.

They took most of the money and ran.
They only ever put a tiny bit of the money into a pseudo exchange to make it appear legit.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> As the number of frauds, scams, and failures continues to mount, saying they are just bad examples of crypto loses credibility.
> 
> Where is the crypto from Quadriga ? It should be readily available information on the bitcoin blockchain......so where is it ?


Asked and answered previously. I've pointed it out to you several times in several threads.
The people who said this was a scam posted so publicly well before it fell apart.









Where did the Funds go? A Detailed Breakdown - QuadrigaCX Report


When Quadriga filed for creditor protection on February 5, 2019, it owed its clients assets worth collectively $215 million. The Monitor only recovered or identified $46 million of assets, leaving a $169 million shortfall.



www.osc.ca




"As described previously, Cotten created and traded fake assets with clients of the platform under aliases. Cotten sustained trading losses of approximately $115 million and used Quadriga clients’ assets to cover those losses."



> I guess you admit that the blockchain doesn't record all transactions and is therefore worthless techology.


No, we know exactly what happened on the blockchain, since most (ie Bitcoin) are public, and various agencies investigated the cash.
Basically when you sent your money to Quadriga, they just took the money and lied that they bought crypto.


These same frauds happen in other poorly regulated markets.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> These same frauds happen in other poorly regulated markets.


According to saggy logic all RE is a scam because there exist scams in RE. This is very poor logic

Even highly regulated industries have scams and fraud. Some people are just not very good at basic research and should not be investing

Lawyer disbarred years after GTA clients lost $7.7M in syndicated mortgages

"These particular syndicated mortgages were extremely high-risk because the agreements provided no security for the clients' investments, which were supposed to go toward renovating or building houses in Crystal Beach, Ont., a community about 30 kilometres south of Niagara Falls on the shores of Lake Erie."

Crypto 101 is not your keys not your crypto. Anyone who did the very least to understand crypto would understand that Quadriga is not crypto


----------



## m3s

milhouse said:


> Was reading a bitcoin article in the G&M that made a reference to a fear that UST stablecoin could lose its peg to the USD. Some additional googling of articles on UST seem to indicate that it is having trouble maintaining its peg the last few days and has required backers to issue loans (??) to support the value of UST? Just trying to understand the risk with that high yield as cracks may be appearing.


UST went to .70 this morning now it's above .90. LUNA has also crashed which is what backs UST

Its reputation will be damaged. There will be better stablecoins but for now looks like USDC will dominate


----------



## sags

Investors poured hundreds of millions into Quadriga and nobody checked to see if the crypto was transferred from Quadriga's wallet to their wallet ?

Nobody checked the blockchain to see if their transactions were recorded ?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Investors poured hundreds of millions into Quadriga and nobody checked to see if the crypto was transferred from Quadriga's wallet to their wallet ?
> 
> Nobody checked the blockchain to see if their transactions were recorded ?


Exchanges like Robinhood and Wealthsimple don't even have the ability to "withdraw" crypto to the blockchain. Most people leave their crypto in the exchange

How many people "withdraw" their stocks to DRS? Nobody. Everybody just trusts that their stocks or money exists. You just assume it will be there when everyone tries to withdraw

That's kind of the whole point


----------



## milhouse

Sorry, didn't intend to intend to initiate a rehashing of previous debates.
After reading the G&M article, I just looked for a thread that referenced UST stablecoins to tag onto. Just trying to better understand where to watch for risks to investments based on UST. eg. You kind of want to know when to get the hell of Dodge before everyone starts running for the exists. For this UST stablecoin for example, I likely wouldn't have been knowledgeable enough to understand (1) the risks of LUNA not being decentralized enough and (2) the impact of that one stakeholder (Do Kwon?) has. 

Newer (and better) algorithmic stablecoins are referenced but it would be an iterative exercise of trying to understand where one should be looking to identify and watch for their risks. Things seems to be evolving so fast, it's a seemingly endless exercise of trying to stay on top of the changes and really understanding them.


----------



## m3s

milhouse said:


> Sorry, didn't intend to intend to initiate a rehashing of previous debates.


You are asking relevant questions. Terra Luna and UST took a massive hit and this is very important to watch and understand

sags is bringing up the same thing for the 100th time and might have early stage alzheimer's



milhouse said:


> Newer (and better) algorithmic stablecoins are referenced but it would be an iterative exercise of trying to understand where one should be looking to identify and watch for their risks. Things seems to be evolving so fast, it's a seemingly endless exercise of trying to stay on top of the changes and really understanding them.


I'm watching a few that are being developed and tested now.

Algorithmic stablecoins are very new. We are in the mid to late 90s with early projects like Netscape that may not last. USD stablecoins are very important as they have the highest volume by far. USDC could replace USDT before long

Terra, Solana and Avalanche are basically known to be VC funded coins. They are not decentralized yet as VC's got to pre-purchase in private sales


----------



## james4beach

milhouse said:


> Newer (and better) algorithmic stablecoins are referenced but it would be an iterative exercise of trying to understand where one should be looking to identify and watch for their risks. Things seems to be evolving so fast, it's a seemingly endless exercise of trying to stay on top of the changes and really understanding them.


I would caution, to not mistake shell games and con games as "innovation". One can easily masquerade as the other.

Evolving fast, yes. But still bullsh*t at the end of the day, IMO.

(And yes it's an expert opinion, because I actually worked in cryptography research and high-tech ventures)


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> (And yes it's an expert opinion, because I actually worked in cryptography research and high-tech ventures)


Expert opinion is still an opinion lol

If we have learned anything in the past few years it's that experts know far less than they'd have us believe

There are so many examples of experts getting blindsiding by disruption


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> In all seriousness, I think this crypto stuff has been a kind of fever dream of the last 5 years and in a few years, many are going to ask themselves -- what the HECK was I thinking?


...yep.

I dabbled in crypto many times and I understand what I would say is 99% of it.

But even still... I think the coins are just useless.

The technology is great and it can do wonderful things in the future. But you don't need a coin with some arbitrary value backed by nothing to use the technology.

My friends still call it "investing" and they "buy the dip" because the crypto will do well (according to them). But they don't know this. It is blind emotions. The fact is that the coins are useless and represent basically nothing except for a volatile store of value (which in and of itself, makes the store of value part useless).

There is, of course, always money to be made.


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> There is, of course, always money to be made.


Sure, you can make money, just like people make money gambling in penny stocks. There were depressed energy stocks that have gone up nearly 10-fold since the pandemic started.

I don't dispute there are trading opportunities and speculation can make money.


----------



## KaeJS

james4beach said:


> Sure, you can make money, just like people make money gambling in penny stocks. There were depressed energy stocks that have gone up nearly 10-fold since the pandemic started.
> 
> I don't dispute there are trading opportunities and speculation can make money.


Funny you mention pennies.

I actually wrote that in my original post but deleted it before posting. 🙃


----------



## james4beach

KaeJS said:


> Funny you mention pennies.
> 
> I actually wrote that in my original post but deleted it before posting. 🙃


Ha! Well I see a lot of similarities between crypto securities and penny stocks.

One hears stories about penny stocks. My coworker claims that his cousin made a million bucks in a penny stock and retired early. Meanwhile, my aunt lost all her money in a penny stock back in the 1990s. Her penny stock was all the rage, discussed by everyone at the office, and she thought she'd get in since everyone at work was doing it.

Sounds familiar don't it.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Sounds familiar don't it.


The people who fomo into hype late only because the price has already gone up are the ones who lose money

People who do the research and buy long before the hype are the ones who sell to them. Crypto was very quiet for a few years and that's where people made big money

Markets are markets and humans are humans. I wouldn't buy a house in the current market for the same reason


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Ha! Well I see a lot of similarities between crypto securities and penny stocks.
> 
> One hears stories about penny stocks. My coworker claims that his cousin made a million bucks in a penny stock and retired early. Meanwhile, my aunt lost all her money in a penny stock back in the 1990s. Her penny stock was all the rage, discussed by everyone at the office, and she thought she'd get in since everyone at work was doing it.
> 
> Sounds familiar don't it.


You posted on here that you bought BTC precisely at the peak of the 2017 bull run.

Here is a 10 year logarithmic chart of BTC with that moment circled. Even then it only took 3 years to recover and it's still far from hitting that peak again. Nobody who bought and held BTC for a few years is losing money. To lose you have to fomo in to the peak and panic at the bottom with no conviction

I assume you understand what a log scale is and that no penny stock has a 10 year chart anything close to this


----------



## m3s

Exactly halfway between halving cycle heading into buy bands on the log chart right on queue

Give it another few years and let's see what happens


----------



## m3s

UST hit .30 this morning. LUNA has collapsed 97% from its cosmic rise to the top 5

Sounds like UST's reserve isn't sold off automatically to maintain its peg. A true algorithmic stablecoin needs a fully automatic reserve mechanism

LUNA in known to be mostly backed by VC insiders and not decentralized at all. This looks like it could be a coordinated attack to show its flaws.

Do Kwon had been very vocal/gloating lately and certainly wasn't making friends. Now it's all over just like that









I would put the other chains that are mostly red on this chart in a similar bucket. Centralized VC chains


----------



## MrMatt

@sags 
Just a question, where can I get these secure trusted servers?
Pretty much every country has suffered significant hacks, and recently Costa Rica has massive country wide outtages.








Cyberattack causes chaos in Costa Rica government systems


Nearly a week into a ransomware attack that has crippled Costa Rican government computer systems, the country refuses to pay a ransom as it struggles to implement workarounds and braces itself as hackers begin publishing stolen information




abcnews.go.com





I'd suggest that since there is no such thing as a truly secure server, we should assume every server is potentially compromised and switched to a more modern zero trust system.


----------



## m3s

The Chinese hacked our credit reporting agencies in 2017. Our SSN or SIN numbers were never intended to be our government ID and are notoriously lacking

Decentralized IDs are coming. California is already adopting DIDs. It's just a matter of who will deliver the system we will adopt. There will probably be many interchangeable systems just like we all have many "internet" logons.

Instead of "login with" google, apple or facebook account.. web3 will be connect your ethereum, cardano or algorand wallet


----------



## sags

The crypto world runs on servers and the internet, so the crypto exchanges and apps just create yet another layer of insecurity.

Security breaches most often occur at entry points on individual servers. Creating millions more possible entry points isn't a very good solution.

The lack of high level security on individual computers with access to networks as in the defi world, is a big concern for digital security experts.

Of course, I am relying on information I have read from security experts.

It would probably be wise to ask James4beach the question as I believe that is in his field of work and expertise.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The crypto world runs on servers and the internet, so the crypto exchanges and apps just create yet another layer of insecurity.


You miss the point, they don't rely on the servers being secure anymore.
That's the key point, with crypto you don't need to trust that the "bank" is secure, because you're not trusting them with any money.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> It would probably be wise to ask James4beach the question as I believe that is in his field of work and expertise.


@james4beach says he works with cryptography. That is just one piece of the puzzle.

It's like saying a Proctologist is also a Gynecologist. Although they are somewhat similar.. they are very different fields of expertise.. An expert by definition is not a generalist. Although james understands finances quite well and I believe he also understands the concept of decentralization. I think he has all the general skills to understand it

He just seems to have a very risk averse investment strategy that doesn't jive with all the scams and risks that come with such a disruptive technology. He also seems to be very hands off which would not work well with digital assets. Everyone has different strategies and risk tolerance. Investing in the internet in the 90s was very risky

I just got tired of my responsible traditional assets being manipulated and I believe many will see the light eventually (those with the appropriate time horizon)


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The lack of high level security on individual computers with access to networks as in the defi world, is a big concern for digital security experts.


Name 1
really, find any competent security expert who thinks this is a big concern.



> Of course, I am relying on information I have read from security experts.


Go ahead name them.
Cite the information you've read.

I'd bet it is simply ignorant pieces from people who don't understand the technology.



> It would probably be wise to ask James4beach the question as I believe that is in his field of work and expertise.


James isn't the one making silly unsupported claims.

The one thing that crypto detractors have is they confuse a lot of different ideas together in a way that doesn't really fit.
For instance, you think an individual insecure computer has widespread impact. With blockchain the impact is ONLY on that single computer.

This is the improvement that blockchains bring about. Under old server focused systems a single insecure server can cause problems, because other computers likely trust it, so it spreads.
With blockchain technologies you don't trust the servers, so an corrupted server is easily identified and safely ignored.


----------



## gardner

It's interesting watching coinbase's stock price right now. I think there's a lot of artificial downward pressure from speculators, but also a lot of people genuinely getting out of dodge.


----------



## sags

_Name 1
really, find any competent security expert who thinks this is a big concern. _

Google "defi security risks" and pick the authors and content you believe is trustworthy, unless you believe they are all untrustworthy.


----------



## gardner

MrMatt said:


> That's the key point, with crypto you don't need to trust that the "bank" is secure, because you're not trusting them with any money.


This is only indirectly related to the "security" issue:









Coinbase warns users could lose their crypto holdings if the company goes bankrupt


Coinbase said in its first-quarter earnings report that cryptocurrency assets could become company property in the unlikely event of bankruptcy.




www.businessinsider.com







> Because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to be the property of a bankruptcy estate, in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors


...but it should be reasonable to infer that assets held custodially are also at risk from the companies security policies and practices too.


----------



## james4beach

"Stable coins" are crashing. People are waking up from the fever dream.

It's a scam guys. I've told you since my first post on this topic... the whole crypto space is a scam (of varying forms).

There will be many years of criminal prosecution as the DoJ has recently stepped up investigations and enforcement of crypto operators. And when you look at something like a "stable" coin, what you don't see is the incredible leverage behind the scenes.

Many of the "innovators" and "entrepreneurs" involved in crypto and DeFi are con men and scam artists. During a tech bubble, people like this can get away with a lot because their techno-babble confuses others and people think... _maybe there really is something to this_. I know this because I've interacted with these "entrepreneurs" in my professional work. Our lawyers used to go over each one of the entrepreneurs we encountered, rejecting each one.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> _Name 1
> really, find any competent security expert who thinks this is a big concern. _
> 
> Google "defi security risks" and pick the authors and content you believe is trustworthy, unless you believe they are all untrustworthy.


I did google, didn't find it, that's why I'm asking you to show it.
The biggest crypto risks are
1. Giving away your password.
2. Giving your money to someone who is untrustworthy.



gardner said:


> This is only indirectly related to the "security" issue:
> ..Coinbase link..


Yeah, if you give your stuff to someone who isn't secure or trustworthy, you have a problem.
That's the whole point of NOT giving your money to these guys.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Many of the "innovators" and "entrepreneurs" involved in crypto and DeFi are con men and scam artists. During a tech bubble, people like this can get away with a lot because their techno-babble confuses others and people think... _maybe there really is something to this_. I know this because I've worked alongside people. Our lawyers used to go over each one of the entrepreneurs we encountered, rejecting each one, and at times we thought of phoning in tips to the US DoJ.


Like the tech bubble there are a lot of scammers out there, and people fall for it.
But there is some legitimately good technology being developed.

I'm not investing in crypto just like I didn't invest in a lot of the tech bubble, for a very simple reason. I don't see the valuation case.
I have no idea why a bitcoin is worth ANYTHING.

Are some of the technologies cool, or (potentially) useful, of course. But as an investment, I don't see it yet.

But remember a lot of people didn't see the value of new tech innovations, I still know people who think computers aren't useful.


----------



## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Like the tech bubble there are a lot of scammers out there, and people fall for it.
> But there is some legitimately good technology being developed.


Yes there are tons of scammers that prey on every tech bubble. Whether it's crypto or anything else, lots of fraud, lots of con men, and lots of people ripped off.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Yes there are tons of scammers that prey on every tech bubble. Whether it's crypto or anything else, lots of fraud, lots of con men, and lots of people ripped off.


Agreed

The mere presence of scammers isn't enough to write off the entire technology itself as a scam.
Even if the technology itself isn't a scam, doesn't mean there are investment opportunities.

I think there is something there, but I don't see an investment thesis yet.

I remember learning how problematic x86 was, and how it was very likely a new RISC chip would take over.
I expected it to be DEC ALPHA. That would have been a bad investment.

For the same reason I think blockchain/crypto has a lot to offer, but I'm not sure if there is a reasonable investment yet.

I'm pretty proud I held out so long on Google, Amazon & Apple. Today they seem like no brainers, but at least I didn't buy Yahoo stock.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> It's a scam guys. *I've told you since my first post on this topic..*. the whole crypto space is a scam (of varying forms).


Was that before or after you bought the 2017 bull market peak?

Anyone who buys the peak would be convinced it's a scam rather than admit they simply fomo bought the peak on hype



james4beach said:


> There will be many years of criminal prosecution as the DoJ has recently stepped up investigations and enforcement of crypto operators. And when you look at something like a "stable" coin, what you don't see is the incredible leverage behind the scenes.


Even people in crypto say there are scams and that things like USDT should be regulated.



james4beach said:


> Many of the "innovators" and "entrepreneurs" involved in crypto and DeFi are con men and scam artists. During a tech bubble, people like this can get away with a lot because their techno-babble confuses others and people think... _maybe there really is something to this_. I know this because I've interacted with these "entrepreneurs" in my professional work. Our lawyers used to go over each one of the entrepreneurs we encountered, rejecting each one.


Ah yes like how IBM professionals "rejected" Steve Jobs and Bill Gates "entrepreneurs" working in their garage like chumps. It's a tale as old as time itself.

As if every single "entrepreneur" goes to james4beach lawyers to be accepted for some reason as the holy grail of all the is righteous

Face it if you bought BTC anytime other than the market cycle peak you would have a very different expert opinion


----------



## james4beach

There is talk of potential bankruptcy of Coinbase. Remember this is an unregulated space that lacks investor protections.

In a recent filing, Coinbase spelled out that client assets may not be protected in case of bankruptcy. *Customers could be viewed as general unsecured creditors.*

This means that if Coinbase goes bankrupt, clients may lose their crypto holdings as creditors might be able to seize client assets.

If you have significant amounts at Coinbase you might want to think about this situation as you could lose everything.


----------



## m3s

Don't store crypto in any central exchange

Not Coinbase, not Binance, not Quadriga, not Robinhood, not wealthsimple

There are many examples and reasons why it's a bad idea


----------



## TomB16

Crypto is a scam in that it's just a virtual commodity some guy created and called it currency. It became currency some years later when it became possible to purchase goods and services with it.

It seems to be working. As long as enough people believe in crypto, it will have value.

On the other hand, crypto is not an investment. Cash isn't, either. Trading crypto is like trading foreign currency. It's gambling.

It seems to me, crypto will make a lot of sense if/when governments start to fail. If I was in Russia right now, I would much prefer Bitcoin over Rubles.

I suspect crypto will become the go-to for SHTF market insurance, going forward; even over gold. On the other hand, there are so many scams and low business ethics in the crypto world, it will die without a major reason detre.


----------



## m3s

TomB16 said:


> On the other hand, there are so many scams and low business ethics in the crypto world, it will die without a major reason detre.


People who don't buy or understand stocks would say the same thing

Stocks are very different to someone who studies them a lot than to someone who just reads some headlines about them but never actually bought any

It just shows that you don't know anything about it which is fine


----------



## MrMatt

TomB16 said:


> Crypto is a scam in that it's just a virtual commodity some guy created and called it currency. It became currency some years later when it became possible to purchase goods and services with it.
> 
> It seems to be working. As long as enough people believe in crypto, it will have value.
> 
> On the other hand, crypto is not an investment. Cash isn't, either. Trading crypto is like trading foreign currency. It's gambling.
> 
> It seems to me, crypto will make a lot of sense if/when governments start to fail. If I was in Russia right now, I would much prefer Bitcoin over Rubles.
> 
> I suspect crypto will become the go-to for SHTF market insurance, going forward; even over gold. On the other hand, there are so many scams and low business ethics in the crypto world, it will die without a major reason detre.


Yeah, I don't buy into the crypto currency thing. I might be right or I might be wrong.

But what about dapps? 
I think there is potentially real value in the technology. 

FYI seeing value in the technology isn't the same as seeing an investment opportunity today.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> But what about dapps?
> I think there is potentially real value in the technology.
> 
> FYI seeing value in the technology isn't the same as seeing an investment opportunity today.


He said currency so he clearly doesn't even know what a dApp is yet.

I have several very large liquidity pairs in a DEX yielding well above 100%. There is risk of impermanent loss but I see it as an auto rebalancer that pays me. The taxes will be high but it will raise my cost base and get it over with. When/if crypto is too high I will switch to decentralized lending to lower the tax burden from constant churning high yields. But we should also have better vaults with yield optimizers by then using concentrated liquidity. Yields of course will come down as more people figure it out

Legacy traders would love this but don't know what they don't know. The finance people know it exists they just don't want you to know they know before they figure it out


----------



## nathan79

MrMatt said:


> Yeah, I don't buy into the crypto currency thing. I might be right or I might be wrong.
> 
> But what about dapps?
> I think there is potentially real value in the technology.
> 
> FYI seeing value in the technology isn't the same as seeing an investment opportunity today.


It sounds like you want all of the benefits of decentralization without the costs.

The value of the currency is what incentivizes mining or staking, which is what secures the network. If you eliminate the currency, you need to replace it with another incentive structure. Otherwise you're relying on third parties to finance the costs of running a validator while trusting them not to be bad actors. That's basically how the legacy financial system operates, which is obviously counter to the whole point of crypto.

Having a native currency is simply the most elegant solution for maintaining decentralization. It also facilitates transaction fees which is a proven way to reduce spam. It's much the same thing with dapps which require gas fees to execute.


----------



## MrMatt

nathan79 said:


> It sounds like you want all of the benefits of decentralization without the costs.


No, I've been clear on this.
I see something useful, but I don't see the valuation case.

I understand that having an NFT system possible has worth, I don't see why ETH is worth $1 or $1000 to make it happen.



> The value of the currency is what incentivizes mining or staking, which is what secures the network. If you eliminate the currency, you need to replace it with another incentive structure. Otherwise you're relying on third parties to finance the costs of running a validator while trusting them not to be bad actors. That's basically how the legacy financial system operates, which is obviously counter to the whole point of crypto.
> 
> Having a native currency is simply the most elegant solution for maintaining decentralization. It also facilitates transaction fees which is a proven way to reduce spam. It's much the same thing with dapps which require gas fees to execute.


My current position is IMO quite well thought out. I think there is something there, some of it is useful. I personally lack the metric/understanding to determine what any particular cryptocurrency should be worth.
Most of the valuation arguments are simply technical analysis, which is a pricing system I don't agree with. 
I'm a value investor and being unable to determine the value of a single transaction it doesn't add up.

I've said for a while that the value of some is zero, others is non-zero, but I can't figure out how to price it. Which makes it a poor investment.

As far as I'd go is investing in the supporting industries (ie to get rich during a gold rush, sell shovels). But their valuations don't add up either. 
So I'm waiting, I'm okay with that, I bought Google late, Amazon late, Apple late, and they all worked out.
I also avoided buying a HUGE number of companies that didn't make it. So I'm going to wait until crypto space makes sense to me before I buy. I'll sacrifice the early returns for not losing it all.


----------



## Thal81

Crypto went down hard overnight. I think we're at the point now where people who bought during the 2021 run up will want to cut their losses, and people who bought before 2021 will want to sell to take some profit before this all goes to hell. IMHO there's no way but down from this point on. Strap your seatbelts, it's going to be spectacular!


----------



## gardner

m3s said:


> Celsius App
> I've been testing and using financial apps and I think CMFers could benefit from this one the most
> [...]
> Cons
> No self custody - tokens are lent out





m3s said:


> I loan to some protocols and the risk is in the code not default. The code either executes properly or it doesn't. The yield does reflect the risk and I manage the risk as I would anywhere else





m3s said:


> Don't store crypto in any central exchange
> Not Coinbase, not Binance, not Quadriga, not Robinhood, not wealthsimple
> There are many examples and reasons why it's a bad idea


I guess you gave up on Celcius, then.

I am a bit confused how exactly one loans crypto for interest/commission yield without either delegating control to a "protocol" or some exchange-like entity or else at least taking the risk that a smart contract somewhere will burn your NFT or units regardless where they sit. In the past you've recommended Anchor Protocol and AFAICS this requires the "coin" to be on-deposit where it is fundamentally controlled by someone else.


----------



## sags

Breaking news.........the Terra blockchain has halted all transactions.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> I guess you gave up on Celcius, then.
> 
> I am a bit confused how exactly one loans crypto for interest/commission yield without either delegating control to a "protocol" or some exchange-like entity or else at least taking the risk that a smart contract somewhere will burn your NFT or units regardless where they sit. In the past you've recommended Anchor Protocol and AFAICS this requires the "coin" to be on-deposit where it is fundamentally controlled by someone else.


There's both centralized services, such as Celsius and decentralized protocols that use smart contracts on a blockchain. They both have pros and cons

The centralized services are being investigated by the US and now you have to be an accredited investor to use them in the US. This is fine and I think regulation is required for these centralized services. Ideally they should pool some of that yield into some kind of insurance and that will come with time

For the decentralized protocols you need to deposit into a smart contract and you receive a token that can be sold, transferred and even deposited into an auto-compounding vault for another token. The yields are based on market supply demand and also typically include a governance token for the protocol

We are talking about lending so yes it is fundamentally controlled by someone else. The loans are over collateralized and liquidated automatically. The older a protocol is and the more value it contains the better. Untested closed source contracts are extremely risky

Anchor protocol was the lending protocol for UST which de-pegged this week. It will be important to read how that all plays out. Luckily I didn't have any funds in UST and I don't think anyone here did


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Breaking news.........the Terra blockchain has halted all transactions.


Yea I wouldn't use any centralized chains that can be halted

Solana has halted several time. Now Terra. I would put Avalanche in that category. "SoLunAvax" the VC centralized chains

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano etc are too decentralized to be halted


----------



## m3s

BTC dominance is climbing. It was 60% before the 2021 bull


----------



## TomB16

So, the innovation of money is no longer powered?

FWIW, I like the idea of alternate currencies.

The difference between trading crypto and chickens is that chickens have an inherent value. If someone wants to give you $1 per kg for your chickens, you can just live on drumsticks for a year. Crypto, on the other hand, is worth only what someone else will give you since a long string of pseudo-random numbers doesn't do anything for the world other than represent the idea of a unique virtual commodity.

Many people argue gold as a safe haven due to it's inherent value but the value of gold is far more arbitrary than many people seem to realize. Gold has real value connected to the cost of finding, extracting, and processing it into a usable metal and gold is needed in several industries but the gold price is mostly speculative with the real cost to produce being insignificant.


----------



## gardner

sags said:


> Breaking news.........the Terra blockchain has halted all transactions.


Tether's USDT became unteathered earlier today, to the tune of 5%, the largest variation from 1:1 so far. I expect there is a lot of angst at Tether.


----------



## sags

Collateral damage to companies who heavily invested in bitcoins as an asset.

Tesla and Microstrategy are two "whales" that are now under water.

Microstategy is the worst position, because they bought their bitcoins with debt. The debt carries all kinds of covenants and qualifications.

The big question is what happens when some of these companies are forced to dump large numbers of bitcoins to raise cash......into a declining market.









Crypto Whales Tesla, MicroStrategy Underwater as Bitcoin Crashes to 2020 Prices - Decrypt


Bitcoin's current price means that Tesla and MicroStrategy are both down on their investments. Stockholders have also taken note.




decrypt.co


----------



## TomB16

So, money innovation is no longer powered?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The big question is what happens when some of these companies are forced to dump large numbers of bitcoins to raise cash......into a declining market.


Microstrategy can go to like $3k BTC before they are forced to sell

They have lots of BTC that is not used as collateral.. and the CEO even has lots of BTC himself. I doubt you understand how leverage works but you can add to your collateral instead of liquidating

Tesla is also not even sweating yet seeing as they sold 10% at a profit and the way their taxes are structured. Nothing burger sags


----------



## m3s

TomB16 said:


> So, money innovation is no longer powered?


Never was for the boomers

I'm retiring at 38. I was just gifted a way to exit Canada without paying insane taxes

See you in Mexico or Portugal


----------



## m3s

Meanwhile BTC lives another day


----------



## Gator13

m3s said:


> Never was for the boomers
> 
> I'm retiring at 38. I was just gifted a way to exit Canada without paying insane taxes
> 
> See you in Mexico or Portugal


Go with Portugal.


----------



## m3s

Gator13 said:


> Go with Portugal.


I'll probably end up there

Lots of time and places to explore in the meanwhile


----------



## Gator13

m3s said:


> I'll probably end up there
> 
> Lots of time and places to explore in the meanwhile


There sure is. It's a big world and at your age, take the opportunity to go see it.


----------



## bigmoneytalks

Gator13 said:


> Go with Portugal.


Amazing food, safe, incredible weather...it's a gem. Retiring there as well


----------



## sags

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crpto-tumble-column-don-pittis-1.6450411


----------



## sags

El Salvador adopted bitcoin as their currency, which boosted the price of bitcoin temporarily, but it isn't going well.









El Salvador's bitcoin bond reportedly hasn't lured a single investor, and markets are bracing for a default on conventional debt


El Salvador's conventional bonds due in 2032 yield 24%, according to data from Bloomberg




markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crpto-tumble-column-don-pittis-1.6450411


If you get your financial education from a forest firefighter turned boomer entertainment writer no wonder you think inflation is good for GICs sags


----------



## sags

Moody's downgraded El Salvador debt to CCC.........junk status.

The people didn't want bitcoin as their currency. There were large protests. There were warnings from the IMF.

What is in his wallet ? Unleash the blockchain hounds and get back to us asap.

Crypto Presidente may disappear in the dark of night and pop up again in ........Portugal ?









El Salvador Loses $38M in Bitcoin Crash, Faces Potential Default


Having made Bitcoin legal tender in September 2021, the country has made several big currency purchases, frequently buying at prices well in excess of $40,000.




www.newsweek.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> El Salvador Loses $38M in Bitcoin Crash, Faces Potential Default
> 
> 
> Having made Bitcoin legal tender in September 2021, the country has made several big currency purchases, frequently buying at prices well in excess of $40,000.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com


If the US and Canada can spend trillions fighting terrorists in mud huts for decades I think El Salvador will be fine. They only spent a small portion of their reserves on BTC.

You need to think and not blindly believe what the boomer clickbait department uses to sell ads


----------



## sags

Financial ripples around the world, are why US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pledged to a Senate Finance Committee that strong regulations on crypto are coming this year.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Financial ripples around the world, are why US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pledged to a Senate Finance Committee that strong regulations on crypto are coming this year.


Janet Yellen should probably spend her time worrying about other things like what legacy bank will give her millions for "speaking fees" next

Regulation is good and long overdue though. If you read President Biden's executive order instead of boomer clickbait you might learn useful something saggy man

Crypto will easily outlive boomer dinosaurs like Janet Yellen


----------



## Beaver101

How a Toronto comedian made $205,000 investing in crypto – then lost it all while Coinbase shut him out

Above link is behind a paywall but just from the title, are we supposedly to be feeling sorry for this guy?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Financial ripples around the world, are why US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pledged to a Senate Finance Committee that strong regulations on crypto are coming this year.


Matters if it is strong regulation, or obstructive regulation.

The concern really is that they're going to try and kill crypto by regulating it away, which will just put the US behind in global competitiveness.

It really matters how obvious the government wants to be about their power grab.

Remember, there actually are no laws about what you do in a private transaction and what currency you use. The big problem with crypto is that it gets rid of the authority in currencies. Imagine a world where the government can't just print more money because they want to, not being in control scares the authoritarians.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> How a Toronto comedian made $205,000 investing in crypto – then lost it all while Coinbase shut him out
> 
> Above link is behind a paywall but just from the title, are we supposedly to be feeling sorry for this guy?


No because lesson 101 of crypto is don't leave it on coinbase or mt gox


----------



## m3s

I haven't had time to check in here

I made 6 figures unrealized in the last week on DeFi utility NFTs. I will take my initial cost out during the test net / pre-mainnet hype and I have strong conviction that they will 10x in coming years. Obviously not worth trying to explain to people who don't even know what they don't know yet

Haters gonna hate


----------



## sags

It is no secret that scamming can be profitable.

All the lost money from the rubes and newbs goes into somebodies pocket somewhere.


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## m3s

Normally all this money goes to the banks saggy man

That's why they pay you 2% when inflation is 7%. That's why they sell you a $9k platinum protection package on a vehicle that has a profit margin of 1 or 2k

Rubes and newbs who think inflation is good for GICs trying to give financial advice


----------



## Freedom2022

I thought bitcoin could be a good hedge against inflation.
At this point in time, it is not.


----------



## m3s

Freedom2022 said:


> I thought bitcoin could be a good hedge against inflation.
> At this point in time, it is not.


You have to learn to zoom out. It's a reversion to the mean of a decade long trend.

Or if you can't grasp the concept buy bonds since they are having their worst year


----------



## sags

A lot of "rainbows" come all the way back down to earth on the other side of the peak.

Nortel, RIM, Yahoo, BreX, .......and bitcoin's rainbow has peaked and is on the way down now.....$68K....$50K......$40K.......$30K.

Bitcoin will prove to be more like a shooting star.......burning brightly and then fading away.


----------



## sags

Bitcoin and the blockchain are creations by the NSA, who produced a white paper on it in October 1996.

The purpose was believed to be tracking criminals and terrorists, but that has changed with current developments.

China has implemented a central bank digital currency, and it is already in use by big European banks.

It is now believed that Bitcoin was created as a test pilot run of crypto to acclimatize citizens to digital currrencies.

A centralized digital currency creates many opportunities for sovereign countries. It facilitates trade and they can create a digital monetary system on top of it that they easily control. They can for example better control inflation and the money supply through direct government deposits to citizens. Does that sound familiar as a UBI deployed within an MMT monetary system, which has been studied for years by global finance ministers ?

Serious economists know that decentralization is a ridiculous idea that ignores economic realities, and will never be implemented. They also know that a digital currency backed by central banks can be well managed and a great benefit to those who deploy it.

Countries can follow transactions to clamp down on tax evasion, battle criminals, track consumer spending or any number of things.

The so called creator of bitcoin is fake. Translated into Japanese, the name is......

Satoshi = intelligence

Nakamoto = central.

As most lists of people begin with the last name, the order can be reversed to Nakamoto, Satoshi which reveals.........central intelligence.

Although it was the NSA who developed bitcoin, the CIA was a partner who played a large role in it's execution as a public adoption trial project.

They also had the benefit of time to develop superior tracking systems to trace and locate criminals who believed they were using the blockchain anonymously.

More at the links provided.

Link to NSA white paper in 1996.





__





How To Make A Mint: The Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash






groups.csail.mit.edu





Link to a very interesting discussion of crypto with an expert who understands how the global financial system works


----------



## m3s

OK boomer

You have shown time and time again that it's not worth reading your posts. At least I haven't blocked you like most

Stop wasting your own time


----------



## sags

You can never debate with facts, which makes me suspect you really don't have much knowledge in crypto and are just following the herd.

You do appear to flit from one crypto token to another, unable or unwilling to separate one token from the thousands of potential offerings.

Uncertainty perhaps ? Lagging confidence maybe ? Bruised from previous losses, or just basic confusion surrounding the whole concept ?


----------



## sags

Spending time and money on sketchy crypto chasing "untold riches" is a waste of those limited resources a person has until retirement.

The resource of time you only get to spend once, and the resource of money can also be limited.

Better to buy BRK "B" shares and let "old men" Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger do the investing for you.

No need to thank me in the future. I will measure my success by your success.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> You can never debate with facts, which makes me suspect you really don't have much knowledge in crypto and are just following the herd.


Your posts are 99% speculation and 99% turn out wrong

You argued that inflation is good for GICs for god sake and lack self awareness that most users have blocked you



sags said:


> Spending time and money on sketchy crypto chasing "untold riches" is a waste of those limited resources a person has until retirement.
> 
> Better to buy BRK "B" shares and let "old men" Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger do the investing for you.


Warren Buffet made his money doing things his own way during his time which was value investing

You are the one following the herd. Enjoy shopping at goodwill


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> You can never debate with facts, which makes me suspect you really don't have much knowledge in crypto and are just following the herd.
> 
> You do appear to flit from one crypto token to another, unable or unwilling to separate one token from the thousands of potential offerings.
> 
> Uncertainty perhaps ? Lagging confidence maybe ? Bruised from previous losses, or just basic confusion surrounding the whole concept ?


Facts? Says the guy posting ludicrous conspiracy theories that have been debunked time and again.


----------



## sags

What theories debunked by whom ?


----------



## gardner

An interesting writeup on algorithmic stable-coins.




__





Loading…






www.swanbitcoin.com





The writer clearly likes bitcoin but isn't keen on most of the rest. He seems to lean to thinking Terra/Luna/UST/Anchor was a ponzi scam from the start. I think I agree.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> An interesting writeup on algorithmic stable-coins.
> 
> The writer clearly likes bitcoin but isn't keen on most of the rest. He seems to lean to thinking Terra/Luna/UST/Anchor was a ponzi scam from the start. I think I agree.


I didn't read it but many were skeptical of Terra LUNA especially for how much control was centralized. I saw it as an interesting experiment but it's one of the main 3 often accused of being backed by VCs who got pre-sales (see chart below of the insiders backing Solana, Terra, Avalanche etc)

Nakamoto coefficient is used to determine if a blockchain is sufficiently decentralized. For the amount of value I hold I have only trusted BTC, ETH and ADA with large amounts. Terra for example has terrible nakamoto coefficient stats and there were even some connections to the Quadriga sifu guy

This chart alone is why I never touched LUNA even though I liked the idea of the UST algorithmic stablecoin. Cardano already has a superior algorithmic stablecoin launching soon. Cardano tends to "measure twice cut once" after learning from other chains like Terra and Ethereum and is also designed to be far more sustainable


----------



## Freedom2022

I am open minded. For now, I just wait and see until more interest rate hike by BOC and the Fed. One thing is certain: the interest rate will climb higher. 
Although the value of fiat currency is downgraded by at least 20% due to money printing (quantitative easing by federal reserve and BOC), at least it is still a legitimate money for legal transaction.
At this point in time cash is the king. If you have cash, you can invest in stocks, bitcoin, bonds, real estate, etc.


----------



## m3s

Freedom2022 said:


> at least it is still a legitimate money for legal transaction.
> At this point in time cash is the king. If you have cash, you can invest in stocks, bitcoin, bonds, real estate, etc.


If cryptocurrency is illegal as the boomers say then why does the CRA accept my $$$$ tax bill instead of sending the police lol

You want to borrow and spend the weakest asset which is fiat. I can collateralize the value of crypto to borrow fiat to spend. Saves a lot of taxable events as well

Bonds look like a good deal right now. Too bad nobody listened to me that they had the risk without the reward


----------



## sags

gardner said:


> An interesting writeup on algorithmic stable-coins.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Loading…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.swanbitcoin.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The writer clearly likes bitcoin but isn't keen on most of the rest. He seems to lean to thinking Terra/Luna/UST/Anchor was a ponzi scam from the start. I think I agree.


Excellent synopsis of the folly of these promoted schemes trying to veil themselves in legitimacy.

Etherium is another suspect as the assets it claims to hold consists of questionable commercial paper. Once regulations are passed to force them to divulge their asset holdings it will get interesting for them.

The reason for much touted high yields of these defi promotions is well described in the article.

The authors are well qualified and informed so the question I am left with is where they see the value of bitcoins…as in for what purpose ?

My question would be in the context of central banks creating their own digital currencies, which does make sense as described in the link I posted upthread.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Etherium is another suspect as the assets it claims to hold consists of questionable commercial paper. Once regulations are passed to force them to divulge their asset holdings it will get interesting for them.


Ethereum doesn't claim to hold any commercial paper.

You're probably thinking of the USDT ERC-20 stablecoin which claims to be backed by commercial paper. This is why USDC is about to overtake USDT in market cap. Don't confuse ERC-20 tokens with ETH and ethereum. There are thousands of ERC-20 tokens on ethereum and ETH is the gas token required to use ethereum

I don't know that author but he references Lyn Alden. That women has been insanely on point over the past years. I follow her and listen to her on many podcasts. She has been consistently correct while mainstream boomers have been consistently blindsided. She is more macro analyst than crypto so I'll trust this author at least by association to her

Much better source than some of the random ancient blogs people tend to cite in here


----------



## gardner

m3s said:


> the assets it claims to hold consists of questionable commercial paper.


I was thinking that too. If I wanted to "fully collateralize" a scam coin, I would do it by buying a bunch of garbage bonds and use them at face value to underpin my coin. It would be a great way to offload C rated bonds at full or even above full value. You could pick up some CCC latin american bond that is a quarter away from default at 5% of face value and realize maybe 90% of face value in scam-coin that you could sell to mugs for face value. It sounds like a great play for a hedge fund.


----------



## sags

Issue company "attestations" to their assets, prepared and signed by a small accounting place in the Cayman Islands, after paying a fine in New York State for misleading investors on the value of their underlying assets while pleading that the settlement not be made public, and continuing to refuse allowing a full audit............what is there to be concerned about ?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Issue company "attestations" to their assets, prepared and signed by a small accounting place in the Cayman Islands, after paying a fine in New York State for misleading investors on the value of their underlying assets while pleading that the settlement not be made public, and continuing to refuse allowing a full audit............what is there to be concerned about ?


Nothing, because I wouldn't invest in such shady schemes.
I remember seeing billboards about guaranteed 14.9% investment returns. I just keep driving.

I specifically don't invest in things that aren't properly audited.
If you look at the developing market thread I even commented that this was a risk, and that's why I invest in "developing countries" through the major multinationals.

Canada, EU-Core (France, Germany) ,UK, US, Australia securities are just fine.
China, Russia, India, Africa, South America, no thanks

I'll say this again, if you go and send money to some random entity, you DESERVE TO LOSE THAT MONEY.
Perform your own due diligence, know where you're sending your money, or DON'T SEND IT.


----------



## sags

I agree that most scam losses are self inflicted. Years ago I had to argue with my dad and brother about pyramid scams they wanted to get into.

My dad had already been burned on an Aloe Vera scam, where he purchased a basement full of products and supposedly got a "cut" of all the sales from people he could recruit. Of course, he couldn't convince a single person to get a "territory" from him.

He lost all the money but had lots of lotion to give away.

I remember there were ads in magazines "how to beat the horses". My horse gambling uncle sent away and got back a small box with a tiny plastic whip in it.

There was a scam that someone put an ad in the newspaper.........."Don't lose out. Send $2 now to secure your place".

Enough people sent money that the postal service got involved in possible mail fraud, but the guy didn't promise anything in return.

Scams have been around for a very long time, and you get pretty good at recognizing them after awhile.

I see all the warning signs flashing in crypto and meme stocks.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Scams have been around for a very long time, and you get pretty good at recognizing them after awhile.
> 
> I see all the warning signs flashing in crypto and meme stocks.


Oh saggy boy scams are everywhere. I have said the same thing to you a million times by now

If you still don't understand that the platinum protection package made 5x more profit for GM than the entire vehicle itself.. you shouldn't get into crypto

There are scams everywhere because there are suckers everywhere saggy.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Scams have been around for a very long time, and you get pretty good at recognizing them after awhile.
> 
> I see all the warning signs flashing in crypto and meme stocks.


Sure
But what you are failing to see is the value of the technology.

You see a few hundred (thousand) scams and assume it's all worthless.
I know a lot of people (From boomers to pre-teens) who think "stock investing" is a scam for the same reason.

I don't hold a crypto position as an investment, simply because I haven't found a good one, and I'm not investing much time in looking for one.


----------



## sags

_If you still don't understand that the platinum protection package made 5x more profit for GM than the entire vehicle itself.. you shouldn't get into crypto_

The platinum package has paid some cash back already.

We got a big screw in a tire and they came and replaced the tire with the spare, we drove to the dealer and they put on a brand new tire.

The tire alone would have cost $400 plus tax, plus the road service call and the labor to change the tire on the rim........maybe $700 all in.

The cost to me....free plus I got free coffee and cookies and they washed my vehicle.

It pays to be connected in business. We got 2 new vehicles months ago as soon as they were delivered to the dealer.

Somebody from "out of town" had ordered them, but the dealer sold them to us instead because we are "premier" customers.

They even gave us a 60 inch television as a gift and 4 years of free oil changes.....LOL

You could be a premier customer too if you play your cards right, and don't cheap out on everybody.

I'm rooting for ya to make it to the big leagues some day !


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The cost to me....free plus I got free coffee and cookies and they washed my vehicle.
> 
> Somebody from "out of town" had ordered them, but the dealer sold them to us instead because we are "premier" customers.
> 
> They even gave us a 60 inch television as a gift and 4 years of free oil changes.....LOL


Free coffee and cookies and a TV for buying multiple new vehicles with the platinum protection eh

Only you can spend 10 years on a financial forum and think any of this is a good deal in the slightest.. and you think it's free LOL wow just wow saggy

Premier alright sags. That's what they call the suckers


----------



## KaeJS

They wouldn't offer it if it didn't make them money.


----------



## sags

That is how insurance works..........waste of money unless you need it.


----------



## m3s

I've had many flats tires. I got one recently

Takes 10 mins to swap a spare tire and costs about $20 to get a flat repaired. You'd be a fool to spend $700 on a tire change. GM only makes about 1.2k per vehicle

9k for some platinum service cookies.


----------



## KaeJS

sags said:


> That is how insurance works..........waste of money unless you need it.


But why play the odds?

From a probability and statistics standpoint, you ought to lose. You may not. But it's not tilted in your favour.

So why play?


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> That is how insurance works..........waste of money unless you need it.


No insurance is statistically always a loss. That's why if you can self insure, you should.

Appliance warranties and car extended warranties, I "self-insure", because it's cheaper.

Unfortunately I don't have the financial assets to self insure to meet car insurance requirements.


----------



## Thal81

And the great crypto selloff continues, with ETH and BTC reaching new lows today while most of the other shitcoins are down in the double digits. Is it okay that I'm taking pleasure in this?


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> No insurance is statistically always a loss.


No, as sags said, it's a waste of money *unless you need it. *But we obviously we don't know if we'll need it. And obviously, most don't, that's how insurance companies make profits, and how we waste our money.

To me, insurance companies seems so easy to manage, it's like a casino. You look at how much money people claim on average per year and you set your insurance price above it. Ok, it's a bit more complicated than a casino because insurance is based on risk while casino is based on pure probabilities. So you have to make a profile of the people you insure to assess their risk. I made this analogy simply because someone may spend $50/month on lottery tickets in case he wins $500,000 as someone may spend $50/month in case he loses his $500,000 house to a fire.

I also *hate* insurance. Because, yes, most likely it's a waste of money.

My wife insured her dog. I didn't even know we could do that. Even though she insured her dog, I didn't insure mine.

Lucky for both of us, my dog is now 10 years old and I never had medical expenses.

Her dog, which she insured for $30/month, was found with a medical condition 1 year after. Treatment costs are about $200/month. Insurance pays 90% of that amount.


----------



## MrMatt

MrMatt said:


> No insurance is statistically always a loss. That's why if you can self insure, you should.





MrBlackhill said:


> No, as sags said, it's a waste of money *unless you need it.*


Yes, and that's why I said he's wrong, insurance is STATISTICALLY A LOSS.
You're confusing points



> I also *hate* insurance. Because, yes, most likely it's a waste of money.


No, it's just an expensive risk premium.


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> Yes, and that's why I said he's wrong, insurance is STATISTICALLY A LOSS.
> You're confusing points


No, then, you are both right. At the individual level, insurance is a *waste of money unless you need it *(sags' sentence). Maybe we should use "until" instead of "unless", and that "until" may never happen.

Yes, that's the risk premium people are willing to pay.

And yes, on the aggregate level, it's statically a loss (your sentence). Obviously, because it's either a loss to the aggregate of insured, or a loss to the insurer. Since insurance is a business, it's necessarily a loss to the aggregate of insured so that the insurer make profits, otherwise there wouldn't be a business model, it wouldn't be viable.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> No, then, you are both right. At the individual level, insurance is a *waste of money unless you need it *(sags' sentence). Maybe we should use "until" instead of "unless", and that "until" may never happen.


No, if you swap "until" then it's wrong.

The old saying "Insurance is a waste of money until you need it", is simply an ignorant sales pitch.

Insurance is simply a risk premium.
If you need to cover that risk you can self insure, or cover with third party insurance.

The payment of insurance is just one of the costs of covering that risk. You're covering a risk.
The event happening or not is irrelevant on if it was a waste of money.

Statistically insurance is always a loss for the purchaser, which is why I am a proponent of self insurance when you can.
But if you can't self insure, I don't think it's a waste of money.

If you don't need it, well buying things for more than their value is ALWAYS a waste of money,
The value of insurance isn't the potential payout (which like a lottery ticket is always less than the premium paid), what you're actually buying is risk coverage, which may or may not be a waste of money.


In the extended warranty game, where most of us can afford the risk, it's a waste, you're paying a lot for a repair you can likely cover, so it is a waste of money.
In the case of home insurance, most of us can't afford the risk, you're paying to hedge that risk and it likely is NOT a waste of money.
Notice that the determination on "waste of money" is irrelevant to the event happening, it's based on the risk mitigation being offered, because that is the service you're paying for.


----------



## sags

The platinum coverage includes undercoating, rustproofing, GAP insurance, key fob replacement, paint protection, interior protection, repairs or replacement, stolen vehicle tracking, tires and rim coverage, paint chips, and a bunch of other stuff.

If we never use it (although we already have) there is a rebate upon the end of the financing, and it can be transferred to a new owner.

I would think that a lot of people have new car paint protection and rust proofing in any event.

Total loan GAP insurance can be a huge savings if somebody t-bones our vehicle, a tree falls on it, or someone steals it.

It covers the entire outstanding loan which included taxes, upgrades, and the platinum package cost.

I don't want to be in a position of no vehicle but a large remaining debt.

Our insurance company offers replacement insurance but only for 2 years and it doesn't cover taxes and everything else incorporated into the loan.

To each their own, but I have heard too many horror stories of people facing a huge bill for repairs or the difference between the value and loan.

People love the concept of "self insurance" for their home or vehicles until they get a big bill.

A lot of people can't scrape up $200 let alone $20,000. They are the ones who lose everything in a forest fire or flood and say they have no insurance.

I am happy to pay a bit more a month to have all the protection, and hope I never have to use it again, because it is a pain in the arse even if paid.





__





Vehicle Protection - First Canadian Financial Group







home.firstcanadian.ca


----------



## sags

RIsk mitigation......is an accurate description.

I don't want the risk and pay to hand it to the insurance company. I hope they earn lots of profits so they have the money to pay me if needed.

Warren Buffet is an expert on insurance, as he owns Geico and other insurance companies, and he says it is the "float" where they make money.

The insurers calculate that "everyone" will have a claim at some point, but the investment returns on the capital from the float (paying ahead for the risk) in aggregate will provide a profit. Premiums paid typically don't cover all the claims, and that is why they use a combined ratio of premiums and return on capital to calculate the risk and profit level of the company. A company that is below 100% combined ratio is earning profits solely from the premiums and is an attractive investment. An insurance company with a 130% combined ratio is spending all their premiums and burning through their capital reserves to pay out claims, which would be a poor company to invest in.

Some insurance companies lose money when they concentrate the risk too much in one geographical area, especially with climate change damage.

I am thinking that some life insurance companies may also be facing some problems in the future in their annuity and pension departments.

Their monthlly payouts remain constant while their return on capital is cratering. Years ago it was LTC insurance that put some insurers out of business.


----------



## sags

Crypto is getting whacked hard over the weekend. Bitcoin is well below the $30,000 level and most wallet holders are now underwater.

There isn't a lot of good news to support crypto prices. More regulation, higher energy prices for miners, declining public adoption, most buyers underwater, scams, and the failed El Salvador bitcoin currency experiment.

The latest is the SEC investigating the Luna developer. It is believed he withdrew $2 billion dollars in the months before the crash of Luna.

Defi is dead in the water and NFTs are a joke. It is baffling that crypto hasn't fallen to 0% already, but the markets are unregulated and easy to manipulate.


----------



## sags

There are 100 million satoshis in 1 bitcoin.

There are groups of "crypto investors" who celebrate members gradually acquiring enough satoshis to join the "million satoshi" club.

They celebrate owning 1/100th of a bitcoin and do it by buying and accumulating tiny amounts of satoshis until they get a million of them in their wallets.

That is like a "penny" club that celebrates owning 1 penny of a $1 US dollar.

If the bitcoin market required buying and selling whole bitcoins only.....at the current $28,000 USD price, the market would collapse for lack of buyers.


----------



## sags

Washington State is raising the cost of energy to crypto miners by 29%.

_The promise of cheap, hydroelectric power for Bitcoin miners in Washington state has started to fade.

A 29% rate hike for hydroelectric power in Chelan County, created specifically for cryptocurrency miners, went into effect on June 1. The miners used to pay a lower, high-density load rate for their electricity. Now they’ll pay a newly-created cryptocurrency rate, known as Rate 36. _

Life is getting real for the crypto bros.









Bitcoin Miners Will See 29% Rate Hike on Hydroelectric Power in Washington - Decrypt


Charging Bitcoin miners the highest rate wasn't enough. Chelan County has now implemented a new crypto rate that's 29% higher.




decrypt.co


----------



## fstamand

sags said:


> Life is getting real for the crypto bros.


I'm not worried, Poilievre will save us.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Man, this YouTube channel is the best! Self-documenting greed and stupidity.

He took all his money, margins, credit cards to buy about $180,000 Dogecoin at $0.04. Later, it was worth almost $3M. And now...

Watch this one first





Other YouTubers, more reasonable, tried to convince him to sell when he was over $2M





And recently, watch this at 6:09





And Dogecoin just lost another -25% since then.


----------



## sags

Bitcoin continues to drop …..mid $25k now.

Pierre learned his bitcoin economics from YouTube bros.

He was or is the CPC finance critic ….yikes


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> Bitcoin continues to drop …..mid $25k now.
> 
> Pierre learned his bitcoin economics from YouTube bros.
> 
> He was or is the CPC finance critic ….yikes


At least he knows how to zoom out.

I'm still up nearly 2500% on my remaining coins. Of course, I've also taken 6-figures in profits over the past year because I knew the easy money couldn't last forever.

The dumb money are the ones selling right now. Think of all those people who bought the top back in 2017... many sold during the subsequent crash and probably bought again near the peak last year. If they had just held they would still be in profit right now, or they could have sold at 68K and more than tripled their money.

I'm content to watch things unfold for now, but I might start averaging back in if we get closer to 20K. Either way, I'm not concerned.


----------



## MrBlackhill

Nice, Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, swap and transfers between accounts.

I would be happy. I would feel safe.

And then people complain that the government froze accounts during the Freedom Convoy...

Some far-right people called Canada "communism", while some crypto app pulls out this withdrawal pause "for the good of the community".


----------



## sags

Bitcoin down to mid $23K now. At some point people are going to try to get out whatever they can. We may be approaching that point.

The effects of a crypto crash will have a far wider impact than just on a few crypto bros.

Example.......Real estate in Miami was driven up by suddenly wealthy crypto pumpers. Tesla is a favorite purchase. Lots of leverage is getting wiped out.

There is going to be tremendous damage to the "wealth effect" due to the massive leverage in crypto.

*Zoom out.*......sure, people zoomed out as Nortel, GM, Rim, BreX collapsed all the way to zero.

At one point they were all leading companies in stock markets......if you zoom out far enough. People who "zoomed out" stayed to the bitter end.

Share holders in MicroStrategy, Tesla, Coinbase, and any corporations holding bitcoins are going to get whacked.


----------



## sags

MrBlackhill said:


> Nice, Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, swap and transfers between accounts.
> 
> I would be happy. I would feel safe.
> 
> And then people complain that the government froze accounts during the Freedom Convoy...
> 
> Some far-right people called Canada "communism", while some crypto app pulls out this withdrawal pause "for the good of the community".


Trapped...........and so it begins.

That is always the first step and then more excuses and a sudden collapse and message on their website.......sorry, we are filing for bankruptcy.

Luna is looking like a multi-billion dollar "rug pull" fraud. Several countries want to "talk" with the developer/promoter.

All confidence in crypto is getting wiped out and "confidence" of higher prices in the future is all it has.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Nice, Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, swap and transfers between accounts.
> 
> I would be happy. I would feel safe.


I'm glad I didn't give them money.
When you give money to untrustworthy people this can happen.



> And then people complain that the government froze accounts during the Freedom Convoy...


Because the government abused the laws to push a political agenda.
Banks were given immunity in acting otherwise improperly against their clients.
- Freezing accounts without court orders or evidence of wrongdoing is not permissible.



> Some far-right people called Canada "communism", while some crypto app pulls out this withdrawal pause "for the good of the community".


I actually think it's good when crypto exchanges demonstrate the risk of trusting crypto exchanges.
I think it would actually be better if people understood that lending your money to these organizations (banks, exchanges etc) means you're surrendering control, and you're at the whims of whatever they decide to do.

That's the whole point of crypto, they MUST follow the rules and can't simply change the rules on a whim.


----------



## sags

It will get interesting for those who made "six figures" weekly, monthly, or whatever time frame if the government decides it was all a scam and start searching for the ill gotten gains.

If people reported the profits on their income tax as required, it won't be that difficult for the regulators to track.

People who didn't report the profits committed the serious crime of tax evasion.


----------



## wayward__son

Ooof. First Terra Luna, now Celsius. Crypto skeptics get their time to gloat and fair enough -- these are truly horrific failures. A great number of scams and excess leverage got built up since the last washout and by the way, EtherRocks -- pictures of nothing more than rocks -- are still trading for hundreds of thousands of United States Dollars. This cleansing could have a ways to go. Markets love to test vulnerabilities (well, at least free markets do), and in this moment I am a little concerned about Saylor. But this is nothing new in crypto. BTC and ETH have recovered from far worse declines than this. There are no certainties in life but the idea of non-state, decentralized transaction technology is as compelling to me now as ever and like nathan79 I will be bidding.


----------



## sags

Binance freezes withdrawals.









Binance paused bitcoin withdrawals for several hours Monday due to a 'stuck transaction'


Binance temporarily paused bitcoin withdrawals, the company's CEO said in a tweet.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## sags

Ether Rocks ?........reminds of pet rocks. They were the easiest pets to look after. They just sat there.

I still think the NSA and CIA developed bitcoin for their own reasons and it got out of hand with a life of it's own.

I think they have manipulated the market for some time and are now pulling the plug.

The blame will go to everyone but them.


----------



## sags

Satoshi has over 1 million bitcoins in a wallet. They have never moved........from the rise to $68,000 each to the fall back down each time.

That is very suspicious. What person just sits on that kind of money ? Some person or entity that doesn't want it tracked......would be my guess.

Maybe some entity that controls the bitcoins but doesn't own them personally, and the bitcoins are closely monitored and audited ?

In Japanese, Satoshi Nakamoto means "intelligence, central" which if it was an owner's name would be surname first and would be...."central intelligence".


----------



## MrBlackhill

MrMatt said:


> When you give money to untrustworthy people this can happen.


But tell me... What is trustworthy?

Companies, untrustworthy
Government, untrustworthy
Friends, untrustworthy
Family, untrustworthy
Yourself, untrustworthy*

*Why? Because you can't trust yourself with all the cognitive biases that you have. So you need feedback from other people... the untrustworthy people.

Everything is untrustworthy if you think about it.

Yet, society can't work without trust, so what will you decide to trust?


----------



## MrMatt

wayward__son said:


> Ooof. First Terra Luna, now Celsius. Crypto skeptics get their time to gloat and fair enough -- these are truly horrific failures.


Why horrific, I think they're wonderful.



> A great number of scams and excess leverage got built up since the last washout and by the way, ..


Hopefully this purges a few more of them.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> But tell me... What is trustworthy?
> 
> Yet, society can't work without trust, so what will you decide to trust?


Give more trust to those who have a history of trustworthiness.

I agree society works better when there is more trust all around, which is why I am so concerned about government credibility.
I actually tend to trust people to a moderate amount, because most people are trustworthy.

however I don't give them more power than I feel is prudent, and I give markedly less to those who have shown themselves to be less trustworthy.

My question to you is who do you decide to trust?

Do you trust some secretive guy on the internet who says "send me money, I'll make you rich"

Do you trust someone who lies and lies again, then says "Trust me"?

Do you trust someone who doesn't lie, and when they make a mistake admits to it and apologizes for doing so?

Do you trust someone who breaks the contract you have with them?


----------



## wayward__son

MrBlackhill said:


> Yet, society can't work without trust, so what will you decide to trust?


Transparent, auditable code and consensus rules. 

Today we gather around periodically to hear the pronouncements of a small number of bureaucrats who set the most important price in all markets and determine the supply of the most important commodity. Not like they've been covering themselves in glory either. Tightening "will be like watching paint dry" - 2017. "No more financial crises in our lifetimes" - 2017. "Inflation is transitory" - 2021. It's worth experimenting with alternatives.


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> In Japanese, Satoshi Nakamoto means "intelligence, central" which if it was an owner's name would be surname first and would be...."central intelligence".


Yeah, because they would leave breadcrumbs like that. You're thinking like a conspiracy nut.


----------



## wayward__son

MrMatt said:


> Why horrific, I think they're wonderful.
> 
> 
> Hopefully this purges a few more of them.


It's good to have this stuff cleaned out I agree. Wish the cleaning would happen more quickly and regularly but that's human nature for you I guess


----------



## sags

nathan79 said:


> Yeah, because they would leave breadcrumbs like that. You're thinking like a conspiracy nut.


Maybe......but that is what some posters said when I posted the original covid thread, the UFO thread, the latest stock market dump thread, many other threads, and the posts I made about real estate, bitcoins and crypto.

I was right about the 2015 election of Trudeau and about his subsequent re-elections, but admit I was wrong about Doug Ford winning in Ontario years ago.

Overall.........not a bad record of threads and posts.


----------



## Beaver101

^ sags, you should a poll or prediction contest to see just how low Bitcoin (and the likes as applicable) goes (other than zero eventually) by say the end of June 2022. That would be fun.


----------



## sags

The Caisse pension fund (second largest in Canada) invested in Celsius ? 









Quebec pension manager and WestCap invest $400-million in cryptocurrency lending platform


Cryptocurrency platform Celsius Network has a core business focus of retail and institutional investors, and the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec has contributed its investment in the company




www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## sags

Who is swimming naked in the crypto pool ?

Every few minutes there is another report on CNBC of yet another company, fund, lender with ties to crypto of some kind and facing losses or problems.

This bitcoin scam was allowed to run too long with no regulation. Nobody really knows who and what is involved or how deeply the ties go.

Remember how MBS derivatives became known during the 2008 financial crisis ? It is looking a lot like that type of scenario.

Somebody moved $130,000,000 worth of bitcoins in a single transaction. Where is that money going........to an exchange to sell them ?

The downside is a steam roller now........


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> The Caisse pension fund (second largest in Canada) invested in Celsius ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Quebec pension manager and WestCap invest $400-million in cryptocurrency lending platform
> 
> 
> Cryptocurrency platform Celsius Network has a core business focus of retail and institutional investors, and the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec has contributed its investment in the company
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


 ... are pension plans allowed to do that? Invest in shaky or unknown stuffs ... JUST WOW.


----------



## Spudd

My hundred bucks in Cardano is down to about $32.


----------



## Thal81

Beaver101 said:


> ... are pension plans allowed to do that? Invest in shaky or unknown stuffs ... JUST WOW.


Wow. Just wow. Only one word comes to mind when I think about the Caisse de Dépot fund managers, it starts with R and it's not socially acceptable to say it anymore.


----------



## MrMatt

Thal81 said:


> Wow. Just wow. Only one word comes to mind when I think about the Caisse de Dépot fund managers, it starts with R and it's not socially acceptable to say it anymore.


Rona? yeah, we're supposed to say Lowes.


----------



## Thal81

MrMatt said:


> Rona? yeah, we're supposed to say Lowes.


Haha, yeah something like that. How they were allowed to gamble with public pensions like that is outrageous. Articles are starting to come out, heads will roll over this.


----------



## MrMatt

Thal81 said:


> Haha, yeah something like that. How they were allowed to gamble with public pensions like that is outrageous. Articles are starting to come out, heads will roll over this.


Because so far, no matter how much they mismanage their economy, they can just suck money from the rest of Canada to cover their errors.


----------



## off.by.10

Beaver101 said:


> ... are pension plans allowed to do that? Invest in shaky or unknown stuffs ... JUST WOW.


Don't know about allowed but this was obviously very shady. I read in another article that the Celcius people turned around and went "see, we're totally legit, these pros vetted us" when pitching to other investors.


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> Maybe......but that is what some posters said when I posted the original covid thread, the UFO thread, the latest stock market dump thread, many other threads, and the posts I made about real estate, bitcoins and crypto.
> 
> I was right about the 2015 election of Trudeau and about his subsequent re-elections, but admit I was wrong about Doug Ford winning in Ontario years ago.
> 
> Overall.........not a bad record of threads and posts.


So you were right about Trudeau winning and maybe COVID (even though I don't remember your actual predictions). Some of that is luck. You tend to latch onto every bit of negative news and predict imminent doom. The last couple of years has definitely played to your biases.

As for stocks/crypto/real estate... it wasn't hard to predict a market downturn. I was predicting that 6 months ago, which is why I was selling crypto and rebalancing my portfolio. Now I'm getting ready to buy a house when everyone else is selling. It's just a question of how far the correction goes. I've never seen you offer up any actual numbers.

You've yet to be right about Bitcoin. Pointing out a few scams doesn't mean you were right. Of all the crypto bears on here, only J4B actually did research and pointed out facts in support of his argument (regarding Quadriga).

We'll see what's worth more 10 years from now... one bitcoin or your 80K Chinese SUV with platinum protection package. Wanna make a bet?


----------



## sags

Check out the thread on the Celsius app.

You gonna drive around in your bitcoin for the next 10 years ?


----------



## m3s

Same people who missed all the gains in every other fire sale in history will miss them again

Could stay in the blue band for a few years if the BTC halving cycle repeats. I'm more interested in the Cardano DeFi coming online this summer/fall


----------



## m3s

Capitulation this halving cycle came about 100 days earlier than last cycle. Nearly identical timing to the 2012 cycle. If the cycle continues you have about 3-6 months to accumulate but another year or so before the next cycle


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> Capitulation this halving cycle came about 100 days earlier than last cycle. Nearly identical timing to the 2012 cycle. If the cycle continues you have about 3-6 months to accumulate but another year or so before the next cycle


Don't you think it's quite a leap, to infer such patterns based on just 3 or 4 prior cases? Technical stats on stock/bond/commodity performance is based on hundreds of historical events, going back at least 100 years!

There's really no history here. BTC may perform well but there's no established precedent or history... we have no idea what's going to happen.

Additionally, the crypto markets have changed dramatically since their first introduction. Futures have been added. Institutions and professionals have gotten involved. The market has become far larger and more liquid. So the dynamics of the crypto markets have changed radically over this short time span. There was already so little historical data to begin with, but the dynamics of these markets have also changed tremendously -- e.g. introduction of futures.

IMO that makes modelling next to impossible. Anything can happen, and BTC may still do well, but I don't think there is any basis to expect certain patterns.


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> Same people who missed all the gains in every other fire sale in history will miss them again


If it was that easy and predictable, I'd put all my life savings in BTC in 2023 and retire 2 years later with my crazy gains.


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Don't you think it's quite a leap, to infer such patterns based on just 3 or 4 prior cases? Technical stats on stock/bond/commodity performance is based on hundreds of historical events, going back at least 100 years!


Doesn't matter, technical analysis is market timing, and market timing doesn't work.
That's why I don't trade fiat currencies either.

I prefer valuation for my investments, and that doesn't currently work in most crypto. 
Thought it might work, I think when we get more tech like storj where an actual service is provided it could change for them.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> Don't you think it's quite a leap, to infer such patterns based on just 3 or 4 prior cases? Technical stats on stock/bond/commodity performance is based on hundreds of historical events, going back at least 100 years!
> 
> ...
> 
> IMO that makes modelling next to impossible. *Anything can happen, and BTC may still do well, but I don't think there is any basis to expect certain patterns.*


 ... yes there is. When you want to see a pattern, there's a pattern. I see a sheep pattern in them clouds everyday (except for sunny cloudless days of course).

And now our famous "businessman" O'Leary has a say - article is behind a paywall but one can get the quick gist of it from the headline.

Kevin O’Leary sees more pain ahead for the crypto industry as investors rush for the exits


----------



## gardner

I wonder how confident we are in the price determination for assets like BTC. The way I read it, prices are discovered by exchange-based transactions that value two assets somehow -- like fiat currency and BTC. But what proportion of BTC trading is taking place on exchanges vs peer to peer transactions? If exchange-based transactions are a tiny proportion of all currency movements, how can we have much confidence in exchange pricing? There are 50-odd exchanges trading BTC -- which one's pricing data feed into the calculation? I've been looking at coinmarketcap which has pricing for scores of crypto assets and some information about their pricing and volume methodology, but it's not obvious which exchanges they follow for their data or if they have any methodology to account for non-exchange-based transactions.


----------



## MrMatt

gardner said:


> I wonder how confident we are in the price determination for assets like BTC. The way I read it, prices are discovered by exchange-based transactions that value two assets somehow -- like fiat currency and BTC. But what proportion of BTC trading is taking place on exchanges vs peer to peer transactions? If exchange-based transactions are a tiny proportion of all currency movements, how can we have much confidence in exchange pricing? There are 50-odd exchanges trading BTC -- which one's pricing data feed into the calculation? I've been looking at coinmarketcap which has pricing for scores of crypto assets and some information about their pricing and volume methodology, but it's not obvious which exchanges they follow for their data or if they have any methodology to account for non-exchange-based transactions.


Those are the same issues with other markets.
When a stock trades on the TSX and NYSE and privately, which is the correct price?

The issue with crypto exchanges are there are many public and private exchanges.
As far as Coinmarketcap, scroll down to the markets section, and you can see what markets they are tracking to determine their price.

You can't really account for non exchange based transactions. If I give you something for a bitcoin in a parking lot, unless we tell people, they have no idea what the price was. It could be $20k, it could be a car, it could be a gift.


----------



## gardner

m3s said:


> this halving cycle


This chart seems a bit contrived. How have they picked the "halving cycle" to plot vs the other halvings that have occured within a "cycle". eg: the, I assume current, 2020 cycle halved from 60K to 30K between days 550 and 750, and again between day 680 or so and now. The 2012 "cycle" halved again two more times within the next year alone. If you include all the points where the price halved instead of just a few chosen ones, I wonder what the chart would look like? And what is it supposed to mean anyway?


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> But what proportion of BTC trading is taking place on exchanges vs peer to peer transactions? If exchange-based transactions are a tiny proportion of all currency movements, how can we have much confidence in exchange pricing? There are 50-odd exchanges trading BTC -- which one's pricing data feed into the calculation? I've been looking at coinmarketcap which has pricing for scores of crypto assets and some information about their pricing and volume methodology, but it's not obvious which exchanges they follow for their data or if they have any methodology to account for non-exchange-based transactions.


Crypto taught me a lot about markets and it also shows me how little people understand markets. It's all the same. Markets are priced at what the last person paid. There are people in all markets who make a lot of money doing arbitrage between markets. Sam Bankman Fried (2nd largest Joe Biden donor) moved millions around the world for arbitrage

As for the data itself - I prefer to use TradingView which lets me select the exchange data source. Most modern exchanges use TradingView for their charts even for stocks. Canadian brokerages are living in the dark ages honestly. DeFi is either priced by arbitrage or a data oracle such as ChainLink. CoinMarketCap is owned by Binance but claims to average out data feeds

There is an entire new industry around on-chain data analysis. The amount of financial data you can get from blockchains is unprecedented because it's all open. For example BTC is currently trading below its realized price (average of all price movements) for the first time since the Mar 2020 pandemic crash. Just another data point that is lining up


----------



## nathan79

gardner said:


> This chart seems a bit contrived. How have they picked the "halving cycle" to plot vs the other halvings that have occured within a "cycle". eg: the, I assume current, 2020 cycle halved from 60K to 30K between days 550 and 750, and again between day 680 or so and now. The 2012 "cycle" halved again two more times within the next year alone. If you include all the points where the price halved instead of just a few chosen ones, I wonder what the chart would look like? And what is it supposed to mean anyway?


"Halving" refers to the block reward, not the price. The block reward halves every four years as the supply of Bitcoin gets closer to the maximum of 21,000,000. There is a strong correlation between halvings and price increases because halvings reduce the supply of Bitcoin entering the market.

The impending halving in 2024 will reduce the per block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> This chart seems a bit contrived. How have they picked the "halving cycle" to plot vs the other halvings that have occured within a "cycle". eg: the, I assume current, 2020 cycle halved from 60K to 30K between days 550 and 750, and again between day 680 or so and now. The 2012 "cycle" halved again two more times within the next year alone. If you include all the points where the price halved instead of just a few chosen ones, I wonder what the chart would look like? And what is it supposed to mean anyway?


The halving is not based on priced it is when miner rewards are cut in half every so many blocks (roughly 4 years) This is so that it becomes increasing difficult to mine BTC so that the supply is capped at 21M

It's basically what the central banks do except instead of 12 people in a closed room it's a pre-determined mathematical algorithm that is open knowledge to everyone


----------



## sags

Crypto is worthless and heading to zero. It is a Crypto circus run by the clowns.

Unfortunately, it is taking time to implode and doing ongoing damage to companies and investors who got caught up in the FOMO.

Crypto related stocks are getting creamed and investors and companies involved are facing rising liquidation risks.

There is a lot of leverage involved in crypto with crypto as the collateral on the debt, and that is a high risk situation for lenders.

Facing liquidation means investors and companies have to sell their good assets to cover the losses, so it will affect the broad markets.

I expect a couple more highly public collapses....likely including Tether who refuse to disclose the assets they hold as collateral with an audit.

They claim to have "commercial paper" as collateral, but what exactly does that mean ? Venezuelan debt paper ?

US regulators are going to take a hard look at them, and others like them.

Anyone who believes in this "rat poison" is going to lose, but the promoters will walk away rich.


----------



## m3s

sags you should short crypto here. Put some money where your mouth is for once in your life

You would learn pretty quick how smart you are


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Those are the same issues with other markets.
> When a stock trades on the TSX and NYSE and privately, which is the correct price?
> 
> The issue with crypto exchanges are there are many public and private exchanges.
> As far as Coinmarketcap, scroll down to the markets section, and you can see what markets they are tracking to determine their price.
> 
> You can't really account for non exchange based transactions.* If I give you something for a bitcoin in a parking lot, unless we tell people, they have no idea what the price was. It could be $20k, it could be a car, it could be a gift.*


 ... that was what I was asking of m3s. Can you buy a Tim Horton cup of coffee with that bitcoin (if there's one physically) and if there isn't one, the BTC notation in his account on his phone? He didn't answer other than to say he doesn't know know what I'm talking about or I don't know what I'm talking about. Bitcoin and the likes of crypto-currency sounds quite magical to me ... pulled out from a virtual world with a status being unrecognized as legal tender on its own.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... that was what I was asking of m3s. Can you buy a Tim Horton cup of coffee with that bitcoin (if there's one physically) and if there isn't one, the BTC notation in his account on his phone? He didn't answer other than to say he doesn't know know what I'm talking about or I don't know what I'm talking about. Bitcoin and the likes of crypto-currency sounds quite magical to me ... pulled out from a virtual world with a status being unrecognized as legal tender on its own.


Can you buy a cup of Tim Hortons coffee with
US dollars, Euros
Government of Canada Bond?

Also based on my observations, the vast majority of transactions at Tim Hortons don't use legal tender anyway.

FYI, Tims Cards, Debit and Credit cards are NOT legal tender.


----------



## sags

Crypto is far too volatile and the price too manipulated and unregulated, with no tangible asset value, and is driven purely speculation, for even professional traders who are glued to their computer monitors all day won't touch it.

Shades of Gamestop on steroids, is what a "short" investor would be facing. An extremely volatile price that could wipe them out in minutes.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Can you buy a cup of Tim Hortons coffee with
> US dollars, Euros
> Government of Canada Bond?
> 
> Also based on my observations, the vast majority of transactions at Tim Hortons don't use legal tender anyway.
> 
> FYI, Tims Cards, Debit and Credit cards are NOT legal tender.


That is a meaningless argument. The answer is no....you can't buy much of anything "legal" with bitcoins as few retailers accept them for payment.

Apparently, it is popular with criminals, drug cartels, tax evaders, terrorists, and people who find it necessary to remain anonymous.

The other methods are "forms of money" but not "legal tender" which is a narrow definition that only includes physical bank notes and coins.

This is an example of the weak arguments for crypto that crypto enthusiasts always peddle in search of a reason for crypto to exist.

*Canada’s official notes and coins are called legal tender*

Bank notes issued by the Bank of Canada, together with coins issued by the Royal Canadian Mint, are what is known as “legal tender.” That’s a technical term meaning the Government of Canada has deemed them to be the official money we use in our country. In legal terms, it means “the money approved in a country for paying debts.”

Today, money is not just bank notes but takes many different forms: credit cards, debit cards, cheques, and contactless payments using mobile devices. *You can pay with any of these forms of money, even though they are not considered “legal tender.”* In fact, anything can be used if the buyer and seller agree on the form of payment. *So “legal tender” has little impact on our everyday lives.*


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Can you buy a cup of Tim Hortons coffee with
> US dollars, Euros
> Government of Canada Bond?
> 
> Also based on my observations, the vast majority of transactions at Tim Hortons don't use legal tender anyway.
> 
> FYI, Tims Cards, Debit and Credit cards are NOT legal tender.


 ... okay, let's not pick on Tim Horton. How about just a cup of coffee over them coffee/café shop may it be Starbucks, MCD, CoffeeTime or even 7-11? So why can't you buy a cup of coffee with a yankee buck, an euro? As for a GOC Bond, why don't you ask if you can buy a cup of coffee with your stock certificate instead? Of course you can when that bond matures with those figures in your account that you can exchange for legal tenders. Just as with a gift card, debit and cc that's backed up by legal tenders. How about this, can you use your BTC account to purchase stocks?


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> That is a meaningless argument. The answer is no......you can't buy much of anything with bitcoins as very few retailers accept them for payment.
> 
> The other methods are "forms of money" but not "legal tender" which is a narrow definition that only includes physical bank notes and coins.
> 
> This is an example of the weak arguments for crypto that crypto enthusiasts always peddle in search of a reason for crypto to exist.
> 
> *Canada’s official notes and coins are called legal tender*
> 
> Bank notes issued by the Bank of Canada, together with coins issued by the Royal Canadian Mint, are what is known as “legal tender.” That’s a technical term meaning the Government of Canada has deemed them to be the official money we use in our country. In legal terms, it means “the money approved in a country for paying debts.”
> 
> Today, money is not just bank notes but takes many different forms: credit cards, debit cards, cheques, and contactless payments using mobile devices. *You can pay with any of these forms of money, even though they are not considered “legal tender.”* In fact, anything can be used if the buyer and seller agree on the form of payment. *So “legal tender” has little impact on our everyday lives.*


 ... that's why I used the word for BTC as being "unrecognized".... by the government.


----------



## sags

Cypto pumpers and promoters are on a sinking ship with water up to their necks.

They are flailing away trying grab hold of something that floats.

Unfortunately, if they remain on the ship too long....they will get sucked in the vortex down to the dark deep of Davy Jones locker with it.....glub, glub, glub.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Crypto is far too volatile and the price too manipulated and unregulated, with no tangible asset value, and is driven purely speculation, that even professional traders who are glued to their computer monitors all day won't touch it.
> 
> Shades of Gamestop on steroids, is what a "short" investor would be facing. A volatile price that could wipe them out in minutes.


Overgeneralization to the point of being incorrect.

I'll give a specific real example
Storj. It is earned by storing files for people, you pay them in storj. You are paying for a service from them, instead of AWS or Google.
BAT - Basic Advertising token, you are paying for ads to be displayed
There are many others

Those are real services being performed today, using blockchains. There IS REAL VALUE, real services and work is being done. It is NOT purely speculation.
While most of it is crap, some isn't.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> ... that was what I was asking of m3s. Can you buy a Tim Horton cup of coffee with that bitcoin (if there's one physically) and if there isn't one, the BTC notation in his account on his phone? He didn't answer other than to say he doesn't know know what I'm talking about or I don't know what I'm talking about. Bitcoin and the likes of crypto-currency sounds quite magical to me ... pulled out from a virtual world with a status being unrecognized as legal tender on its own.


You can buy coffee in the US with crypto now. Dunkin donuts for example accepts crypto and many US companies accept various types of crypto, gift cards, rewards points as payment. These are basically a layer 2 network (Visa/Mastercard are a layer 2 network that is settled about a month later)

However unlike rewards points, loyalty points and gift cards (which @marina628 alluded to being used as an underground as a form of payment for gambling when the US banned USD gambling services) crypto transactions are all taxable events

I wouldn't pay for coffee with my stocks or RE investment that has unrealized gains that I expect to outperform fiat money in the long run. I don't report every coffee I buy in USD or airlines points as a capital gain/loss. You want to spend your weakest asset. Which is clearly fiat because it comes out of thin air and is backed by nothing


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> That is a meaningless argument. The answer is no......you can't buy much of anything with bitcoins as very few retailers accept them for payment.
> 
> The other methods are "forms of money" but not "legal tender" which is a narrow definition that only includes physical bank notes and coins.


Exactly, that's why the argument that "But bitcoin isn't legal tender" is stupid, most transactions never involve legal tender. Being legal tender or not is irrelevant. 
Which again IS MY POINT.

As far as buying stuff with crypto being the determining factor on it's value as a technology is again silly.
Deciding if crypto is worthwhile based on buying coffee is like deciding if airplanes are a useful transportation based on going to the corner store.
If you select an inappropriate use case for the evaluation, of COURSE you can get whatever answer you want.


----------



## nathan79

Beaver101 said:


> ... okay, let's not pick on Tim Horton. How about just a cup of coffee over them coffee/café shop may it be Starbucks, MCD, CoffeeTime or even 7-11? So why can't you buy a cup of coffee with a yankee buck, an euro? As for a GOC Bond, why don't you ask if you can buy a cup of coffee with your stock certificate instead? Of course you can when that bond matures with those figures in your account that you can exchange for legal tenders. Just as with a gift card, debit and cc that's backed up by legal tenders. How about this, can you use your BTC account to purchase stocks?


There's no law that exists requiring a business to accept any form of payment, including cash aka legal tender. It's up to the businesses to decide what form of payment they will accept. Tim Horton's could decide to stop accepting legal tender and only accept Bitcoin. They wouldn't do that of course, but they could.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> ... okay, let's not pick on Tim Horton. How about just a cup of coffee over them coffee/café shop may it be Starbucks, MCD, CoffeeTime or even 7-11? So why can't you buy a cup of coffee with a yankee buck, an euro? As for a GOC Bond, why don't you ask if you can buy a cup of coffee with your stock certificate instead? Of course you can when that bond matures with those figures in your account that you can exchange for legal tenders. Just as with a gift card, debit and cc that's backed up by legal tenders. How about this, can you use your BTC account to purchase stocks?


Nobody wants my CAD in the US either. Except for maybe the banks or the business's on the Canadian border

The major ones at least in the US now accept the major cryptocurrencies. Again I don't know why you'd want to spend them. ETH is required to use the ethereum network. ADA is required to use the Cardano network. These smart contract networks do many things people don't understand yet but they aren't intended to buy coffee

The entire legacy financial industry is based on COBOL and mainframes. It can all be replaced by a few smart contracts. It basically reminds me of the App store when it was new - the 1000s of apps are yet to be created. Some of them are meant to be payment layers such as COTI but it's like the caveman trying to compare modern HVAC to his firepit

Cardano is about to launch a new wallet and dApp store. It's still extremely early and it can take years for price and adoption to scale


----------



## MrMatt

nathan79 said:


> There's no law that exists requiring a business to accept any form of payment, including cash aka legal tender. It's up to the businesses to decide what form of payment they will accept. Tim Horton's could decide to stop accepting legal tender and only accept Bitcoin. They wouldn't do that of course, but they could.


Yes/no.

You MUST accept legal tender for debts.

However there is nothing to say you must agree to accept legal tender for other transactions. 
For example, I can require you to prepay for gas by credit card.
But I can't after the transaction say "we don't accept cash"

Nor is there a requirement to agree to form a debt with someone. 
- Not it isn't that you're refusing to provide service, but as part of the service contract you can include a agreed on form of payment.


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Nobody wants my CAD in the US either. Except for maybe the banks or the business's on the Canadian border


 ... but then you can always exchange that C$ for the greenbacks. Let's face it the USA always think they're king of the world given its currency is the universal language of monetary exchange. And don't you think it's scary if crypto replaces that as the universal language if it's "recognized" as a monetary exchange?



> The major ones at least in the US now accept the major cryptocurrencies. Again I don't know why you'd want to spend them. ETH is required to use the ethereum network. ADA is required to use the Cardano network. These smart contract networks do many things people don't understand yet but they aren't intended to buy coffee


 ... why wouldn't you want to spend cryptos like an actual physical coin? In exchange for a physical product or service? If it's not intended to buy such physical things, then what's crytp intended for? Looks?



> The entire legacy financial industry is based on COBOL and mainframes. It can all be replaced by a few smart contracts. It basically reminds me of the App store when it was new - the 1000s of apps are yet to be created. Some of them are meant to be payment layers such as COTI but it's like the caveman trying to compare modern HVAC to his firepit


 ... of course it's given the "modern" world we live in. Regardless in the "real" world now, you still need to pay for that HVAC or servicing it and what are you gonna to pay or exchange it with? Will the service guy take your cheque or cc or BTC? I don't suppose it's the last one. The highest tech I can see is an e-transfer from your C$ account to the service's guy's bank account so that he can pay off the cc for the gas that he pumped into his truck to be able to drive over your place to service it. Plus the food and drinks on the table for himself and/or kids at the end of the day.



> Cardano is about to launch a new wallet and dApp store. It's still extremely early and it can take years for price and adoption to scale


 ... no doubt another scheme ... the more the better in the crypto-world ... just like weeds. Everybody wants to jump on the bandwagon with dreams of riches at the end of the rainbow.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Exactly, that's why the argument that "But bitcoin isn't legal tender" is stupid, most transactions never involve legal tender. Being legal tender or not is irrelevant.
> Which again IS MY POINT.
> 
> *As far as buying stuff with crypto being the determining factor on it's value as a technology is again silly.
> Deciding if crypto is worthwhile based on buying coffee is like deciding if airplanes are a useful transportation based on going to the corner store.*
> If you select an inappropriate use case for the evaluation, of COURSE you can get whatever answer you want.


 ... so basically what you're saying (with parts bolded above) on crypto is that it's a "technology" and anyone who believes in it is living in a virtual world, not the 'real' one because you can't even buy a cup of coffee with it in the 'real' world. You know the one we humans need oxygen air to breathe with as a start.


----------



## Tostig

Beaver101 said:


> ... so basically what you're saying (with parts bolded above) on crypto is that it's a "technology" and anyone who believes in it is living in a virtual world, not the 'real' one because you can't even buy a cup of coffee with it in the 'real' world. You know the one we humans need oxygen air to breathe with as a start.


Wasn't there an online game, like the Sims- or maybe it was the Sims, in which you can use virtual money in exchange for goods and services within that game?

Also, in real life merchants and vendors can use anything as currency, even barter, provided that both parties of the transaction agree to its value. But in the end, they do have to pay tax in the currency of the government of tje jurisdiction in which they do business. There regardless of what happens to crypto, merchants and businesses will have to convert enough of it to CAD, USD, Euros, etc to pay their taxes. Even businesses and superrich individuals who avoid taxes by stashing them away in off-shore shell companies. They store them away in the USDs or other legal currency.


----------



## Beaver101

Tostig said:


> Wasn't there an online game, like the Sims- or maybe it was the Sims, in which you can use virtual money in exchange for goods and services within that game?


 .. no idea as I don't play these computer games. [ I would be really stupid if I did with this one.]



> Also, in real life merchants and vendors can use anything as currency, even barter, provided that both parties of the transaction agree to its value. But in the end, they do have to pay tax in the currency of the government of tje jurisdiction in which they do business. There regardless of what happens to crypto, merchants and businesses will have to convert enough of it to CAD, USD, Euros, etc to pay their taxes. Even businesses and superrich individuals who avoid taxes by stashing them away in off-shore shell companies. They store them away in the USDs or other legal currency.


 ... very true entirely re the merchants and taxes. 

Just imagine if you were an employee, do you want your employer to pay you BTC or some form of crypto-currency at the end of the day? I bet 99.9% of the times, it's an astounding "NO!".


----------



## m3s

Tostig said:


> Wasn't there an online game, like the Sims- or maybe it was the Sims, in which you can use virtual money in exchange for goods and services within that game?


Have you heard of Roblox?

Is the US government taxing all the kids Roblox transactions 😂 Nancy Polosi - one of the greatest insider traders of our time - huge investment in Roblox

Maybe that's where the super rich insiders transact now. Same with NFT pictures


----------



## like_to_retire

m3s said:


> Have you heard of Roblox?
> 
> Is the US government taxing all the kids Roblox transactions 😂 Nancy Polosi - one of the greatest insider traders of our time - huge investment in Roblox
> 
> Maybe that's where the super rich insiders transact now. Same with NFT pictures


Oh my, you mean the $100 Robolox gift card I just gave to one of my granddaughters is supporting Nancy Polosi?

ltr


----------



## m3s

like_to_retire said:


> Oh my, you mean the $100 Robolox gift card I just gave to one of my granddaughters is supporting Nancy Polosi?


I don't know. She had RBLX stock

Nancy Pelosi Buys Google, Disney, Roblox & Other Tech Stocks


> The family’s Google and Salesforce call options are worth between $500,000 and $1 million each. *Roblox call options are valued between $100,000 and $250,000.*
> 
> Meanwhile, the couple bought semiconductor maker MU call options worth between $250,000 and $500,000, and the call options from Disney are valued between $100,000 and $250,000.


Did she sell before the tech crash? What does she know we don't know


----------



## londoncalling

Many of today's youth understand digital payment and economics better than they do paper currency. They can easily calculate a digital transaction but cannot make change for a small purchase of less than $20. The pandemic helped accelerate the move away from paper money. Gaming is full of digital currency and may kid's first experience with currency is from gaming.

The uber wealthy have many more ways to move "money" around these days. They aren't just in offshore accounts in USD. Even years ago there were many storages of wealth that were utilized. They understand diversification. They have the best advisors and intel out there. They also have the ability to lobby changes to the system to stay at the top of the heap. They are not going to sit on the sidelines for blockchain and crypto. Sure some will not adapt but when they tipping point comes many will be part of the move. They are entrenched in a system that allows them to preserve and prosper. 

Those in charge are often initially opposers or deniers say it's a fad (how many scribes thought the printing press wouldn't last ), has no purpose beyond entertainment etc. There will be a flip flop and the shift will appear to be monumental and sudden but in many ways it has been in the works for quite sometime. Demand for a global currency from China and others goes back to 2009. A crypto currency may be that disruptor. Paper is going away and the USD will not always be the global currency nor has it always been. 

The super rich have the money and power to get off sinking ships before the rest of us even know we're taking on water. How and when it happens is largely unknown but change is inevitable. 

Why the US Dollar Is the World Currency (thebalance.com)


----------



## james4beach

Beaver101 said:


> And now our famous "businessman" O'Leary has a say


Kevin O'Leary is now a lobbyist for the crypto industry. He's a "spokesman" for a crypto exchange, and he meets with American politicians to influence policy.

He's a filthy lobbyist for an industry full of filthy charlatans.


----------



## Beaver101

james4beach said:


> Kevin O'Leary is now a lobbyist for the crypto industry. He's a "spokesman" for a crypto exchange, and he meets with American politicians to influence policy.
> 
> He's a filthy lobbyist for an industry full of filthy charlatans.


 ... WOW, that deep eh. I didn't know that as all I recall he's the loudmouth on that what's that reality show Shark Tank??? which I didn't (care to) watch anyways.


----------



## Beaver101

londoncalling said:


> Many of today's youth understand digital payment and economics better than they do paper currency. They can easily calculate a digital transaction but cannot make change for a small purchase of less than $20. The pandemic helped accelerate the move away from paper money. Gaming is full of digital currency and may kid's first experience with currency is from gaming.
> 
> The uber wealthy have many more ways to move "money" around these days. They aren't just in offshore accounts in USD. Even years ago there were many storages of wealth that were utilized. They understand diversification. They have the best advisors and intel out there. They also have the ability to lobby changes to the system to stay at the top of the heap. They are not going to sit on the sidelines for blockchain and crypto. Sure some will not adapt but when they tipping point comes many will be part of the move. They are entrenched in a system that allows them to preserve and prosper.
> 
> Those in charge are often initially opposers or deniers say it's a fad (how many scribes thought the printing press wouldn't last ), has no purpose beyond entertainment etc. There will be a flip flop and the shift will appear to be monumental and sudden but in many ways it has been in the works for quite sometime. Demand for a global currency from China and others goes back to 2009. A crypto currency may be that disruptor. *Paper is going away and the USD will not always be the global currency nor has it always been. *
> 
> The super rich have the money and power to get off sinking ships before the rest of us even know we're taking on water. How and when it happens is largely unknown but change is inevitable.
> 
> Why the US Dollar Is the World Currency (thebalance.com)


 ... and paper is going away???? since when????? Recalling ... recalling ... 

Who was it on this forum who mentioned man has been talking about ridding of the paper and going full digital since the 1970s? RetiredGuy or RetiredPeasant?


----------



## m3s

londoncalling said:


> Those in charge are often initially opposers or deniers say it's a fad (how many scribes thought the printing press wouldn't last ), has no purpose beyond entertainment etc. There will be a flip flop and the shift will appear to be monumental and sudden but in many ways it has been in the works for quite sometime. Demand for a global currency from China and others goes back to 2009. A crypto currency may be that disruptor. Paper is going away and the USD will not always be the global currency nor has it always been.


They oppose it while filling their bags. Then support it once the bags are full

They control mainstream media and even the online influencer narratives. It's already in crypto with all the VC-backed coins and constant FUD around any coin without a pre-sale to mostly VC insiders

Putin knows the USD is on the ropes. There's a reason he now demands rubbles from Europe. That's a huge crack in the USD global currency


----------



## MrMatt

Tostig said:


> Wasn't there an online game, like the Sims- or maybe it was the Sims, in which you can use virtual money in exchange for goods and services within that game?


Many games.
The real question is when do you have to pay taxes.

If I am playing a game and make in game money, do I have to pay taxes on it?
What if I'm at home playing monopoly, do I have to pay tax when someone pays tax for landing on Boardwalk?

I know it sounds like a silly question, but take a game like Eve Online, which has a whole economy, they've had an economist on staff for almost a decade to help manage their economy, it's a big part of the game.
Oh and you can buy in game currency for cash. So should you be taxed on in game transactions? If you deliver the cargo for that game mission and make 1000 in game currency, should you be required to report that on your taxes? When does it shift from being in game 'points' to a taxable currency?
What if you get special collectible clothes for your character/avatar?

If you get a special umbrella for winning a game of fortnite, should you pay income tax on that trophy?


----------



## Tostig

Beaver101 said:


> ... WOW, that deep eh. I didn't know that as all I recall he's the loudmouth on that what's that reality show Shark Tank??? which I didn't (care to) watch anyways.


In all my years of watching Dragon's Den and then some Shark Tank, I have never seen any entrepreneur make a deal with Kevin O'Leary alone. Gee, I wonder why.


----------



## Beaver101

Tostig said:


> In all my years of watching Dragon's Den and then some Shark Tank, I have never seen any entrepreneur make a deal with Kevin O'Leary alone. Gee, I wonder why.


 ... yes, Dragon's Den with Shark Tank the American version. Are you serious with O'Leary? Another WOW, I thought he was a "marketing" pro ... exactly what kind of lobbying is he doing ... the smooch, smooch, smooch them rears version?


----------



## MrMatt

Tostig said:


> In all my years of watching Dragon's Den and then some Shark Tank, I have never seen any entrepreneur make a deal with Kevin O'Leary alone. Gee, I wonder why.


Because Kevin is in it to make money, his deals are all to his benefit.
But he has a few solo deals








Kevin O'Leary's Shark Tank track record


A total of 8543000 invested so far. Those deals add up.



www.sharkalytics.com





Honestly the real benefit to Shark Tank and Dragons den is
1. Exposure
2. Investor network.

There have been guests with no intention of partnering, they just wanted the advertising.


----------



## m3s

O'Leary went from hating crypto to about 5% crypto last I checked. He is adamant about not letting any sector get above 20% and his biggest problem with crypto was ESG

When the top ESG company is Exxon while Tesla is kicked out ESG is basically bs. Crypto mining can be done much cleaner than gold mining will ever be

He has some good ideas for NFTs. He wants to have NFTs for genuine watch brands because there's a lot of fake watches


----------



## james4beach

m3s said:


> O'Leary went from hating crypto to about 5% crypto last I checked


He's paid to do it. He's employed by a crypto exchange and lobbying firm.

He's a clown who will do anything he's paid to do, like most of Wall Street & Bay Street.


----------



## sags

The pumpers all claim they sold just in the nick of time.

They would rather look like greedy promoters who trolled for new fish, than an investor who lost money.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The pumpers all claim they sold just in the nick of time.
> 
> They would rather look like greedy promoters who trolled for new fish, than an investor who lost money.


So what are your investments besides GICs?


----------



## sags

We have professionals managing our portfolio for us.......lots of equities, bonds, real estate, commodities, and private investments.

Also......HISA, vintage sports collectibles, paid up life insurance, and I want to buy Berkshire shares during this big sale, but the wife wants to keep GICs.

Pretty impressive that 75% of my wife's DB pension benefit comes from investment returns. They earned 9.52 % annually over the past 20 years.

My GM plan has been fully funded for years, but I haven't found any access to the current investment portfolio.





__





HOOPP pension investments


To meet our pension promise, our pension investments are managed using a industry leading Liability Driven Investing (LDI) approach. Learn more about our plan's performance.




hoopp.com









__





GM Canada pension plan reaches fully funded status | Benefits Canada.com


One of General Motors of Canada Co.’s defined benefit pension plans is fully funded on a going-concern basis. The pension plan for hourly workers posted about $9.3 billion in assets as of its last official financial release in December 2017, according to the Globe and Mail, which received the...



www.benefitscanada.com





Whoops.......can't forget a pair of these little rascals, which are also professionallly managed and doing quite well.

All things considered........asset risk is the last thing we need or want.









CPP Investments


CPP Investments is a global investment management organisation that invests the assets of the Canada Pension Plan and operates at arm's length from government.




www.cppinvestments.com


----------



## londoncalling

james4beach said:


> Kevin O'Leary is now a lobbyist for the crypto industry. He's a "spokesman" for a crypto exchange, and he meets with American politicians to influence policy.
> 
> He's a filthy lobbyist for an industry full of filthy charlatans.


 and for that reason I'm out!


----------



## sags

Crypto is going to help Ukrainians during the war.........said the cypto pumpers.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet, Bill Gates and many others are right.

Crypto is rat poison and toxic, and the pumpers and promoters don't care how much damage they do to make a buck.

_“My sleep was severely disturbed, I lost 4 kilograms of weight in a few days, I was in an extremely depressed state,” Yuri Popovich, a Kyiv-based web designer who transferred his family’s savings into UST amid the war in Ukraine, told Recode. “Unfortunately, in our country there is no legislation covering such types of losses.” 

The crypto industry is cratering. Bitcoin prices are at their lowest since 2020; one platform has barred users from withdrawing funds, and many of the biggest crypto companies, including Coinbase and BlockFi, have announced layoffs. This disruption reflects the economic turmoil rippling through the broader market, but also serves as a stark warning to everyday people that, generally speaking, *crypto can be valuable one day and worthless the next*. _









The nebulous state of crypto insurance


As crypto crashes, the state of cryptocurrency and insurance is nebulous.




www.vox.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> _“My sleep was severely disturbed, I lost 4 kilograms of weight in a few days, I was in an extremely depressed state,” Yuri Popovich, a Kyiv-based web designer who transferred his family’s savings into UST amid the war in Ukraine, told Recode. “Unfortunately, in our country there is no legislation covering such types of losses.” _


So you believe a person living in a city being bombed by Russia is losing sleep because of crypto 

You are clearly a very intelligent individual who rents hot water tanks and buys the platinum protection package for luxury domestic brand chinese made suvs. Jim Cramer would be proud

I have friends in Ukraine and they are happy to receive crypto considering their banks are closed


----------



## sags

Zoom out.........sounds familiar.

_When confronted about Bitcoin's disastrous performance, *Bitcoiners typically claim that the cryptocurrency's returns are still massive if you zoom out far enough.*

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, whose company has already lost roughly $1 billion on its audacious Bitcoin bet, recently reiterated the popular talking point during a CNBC interview.

However, as Taleb points out, the average purchase price of Bitcoin in circulation is currently at $23,430. Meanwhile, the largest cryptocurrency is now trading at $20,406 on the Bitstamp exchange. This essentially means that the average buyer is in the red. 

As noted by Taleb, the average purchase price for other major assets is much lower than their current market price.

The best-selling author does not mince words when it comes to Bitcoin and its supporters. Earlier this week, *Taleb said that the world's largest cryptocurrency was "an intelligence test," gloating over its sudden collapse.*

He further mentioned that the fact that MicroStrategy holds $410 million worth of Bitcoin in a custody account flies in the face of *"stupid," "naive" and "conspiratorial" people who bought into the "trustless" narrative.

Last month, as reported by U.Today, Taleb opined that Terra's Do Kwon was more dangerous that the late fraudster Bernie Madoff.* _









"Black Swan" Author Dismantles Key Bitcoin Narrative


Nassim Taleb says Bitcoiners who cherry-pick comparative returns should not be ignored




u.today


----------



## m3s

Volatility is great

I started averaging in again this month with funds that were averaged out last fall. Just like I was averaging in during the 2018-2020 period. I have lots of time especially once retired before 40

If you can't afford to invest in volatile assets then maybe you should spend your energy on something else sags. Time is running out


----------



## sags

I hope you do retire young and enjoy it.

I doubt cypto is going to move you forward on that path........but it is your life and you get to live it.

Anyways, there is no point in debating the merits of crypto anymore. It is either going to pan out or it isn't and time will tell.

Good luck to ya !


----------



## MarcoE

The main selling point of cryptocurrency was always as follows: Central governments can't be trusted with fiat currency, so we need a decentralized currency that cannot be manipulated. It will then act as "digital gold," maintaining its value even if governments devalue fiat.

I heard some other advantages touted over the years, but the central message was always more-or-less what I wrote above.

This year should have been crypto's time to shine. This was THE scenario the crypto bros always talked about. This is the "doomsday" crypto was meant to protect us from. Bitcoin (and other popular coins) stepped up to the plate... then slipped, smacked themselves on the face with their bat, and fell onto their backsides.

Meanwhile, gold -- good old boring gold -- is doing its job.

Gold has been with us for thousands of years, spanning civilizations and historical eras. So much for "digital gold" being a serious competitor.

The other rhetoric I always hear is: "If you zoom out far enough, people still made money with crypto." Not the average person, though. Average investor entry point is higher than current value. Most people lost money. This is not true with mainstream asset classes (unless you look at very short timespans).

Maybe the future is in crypto. I still think that's possible. But this year's performance was embarrassing. To become an established asset class -- along with the biggies like stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, commodities -- crypto will have to do better.


----------



## sags

Crypto in steep decline again. Bitcoin is struggling to hold 18k.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Crypto in steep decline again. Bitcoin is struggling to hold 18k.


Whales like to force liquidations and then buy the panic Rothschild style

Celsius, 3AC, Saylor and others are adding collateral to lower their liquidation prices. It could drop below this blue band like it did during the March 2020 liquidations. Most people were too scared to buy or worse panic sell. This is where the smart people with patience can multiply their wealth.

Probably sit in the blue bands for a year like it has every cycle. Doesn't happen overnight.


----------



## james4beach

MarcoE said:


> This is the "doomsday" crypto was meant to protect us from


Yeah, very good point. The central banks mismanaged the money supply and sparked high inflation. And this was supposed to be when crypto was going to save the day.

ETH just fell below 1000 down all the way to 956. The peak price was 4866 so ETH has now fallen 80% from its high.

Crashing, while inflation hits new highs. Not exactly what we were promised.


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> It could drop below this blue band like it did during the March 2020 liquidations. Most people were too scared to buy or worse panic sell. This is where the smart people with patience can multiply their wealth.


Since when did the complexity of the human behaviour while speculating on a asset which can't be valued has been modeled by data fitting a simple logarithmic regression? Because that's that rainbow chart.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Yeah, very good point. The central banks mismanaged the money supply and sparked high inflation. And this was supposed to be when crypto was going to save the day.
> 
> ETH just fell below 1000 down all the way to 956. The peak price was 4866 so ETH has now fallen 80% from its high.
> 
> Crashing, while inflation hits new highs. Not exactly what we were promised.


Crypto truly shows how little people actually understand markets

The price of everything heated up during easy money and speculation/leverage piled on. During a liquidity crisis everything crashes and then recovers differently

If you don't understand this you don't understand anything regardless of crypto. Before the pandemic ETH was $100 james


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Since when did the complexity of the human behaviour while speculating on a asset which can't be valued has been modeled by data fitting a simple logarithmic regression? Because that's that rainbow chart.


It's one of many models and data points that you can look at

Pattern recognition is an aptitude that not everyone has. I'm starting to realize that not everyone can interpret things the same. To me patterns and spatial visualization come very naturally - most people fail my job because of this. How do you think a flock of birds fly together or a school of fish move together? Complex human and animals behaviour all have patterns

For example james bought the very peak of the last BTC cycle and now sees the crash as a failure of a promise that doesn't exist instead of an opportunity. This tells me he doesn't see the pattern I see at all. You don't want to buy the speculative bubble you want to buy when everyone says it failed its promise. Market price and fundamentals are 2 distinct things - apparently not everyone knows this

All markets operate pretty much the same because of human behaviour.


----------



## m3s

I never do shorts myself

But I know people who just made more money shorting crypto in a few weeks than they made during the entire bull run. They see the big lenders and apps getting close to liquidation levels and shorting pushes the price down further and causes more panic and liquidations

They aren't against crypto and this is why markets are so volatile. If you zoom out the entire pandemic has been a volatile mess. Crypto is like 5-10x during pandemic while most stocks have fallen all the way back to where they were. How do people not understand how to zoom out.

Anyways it's clearly not possible to help people who can't see for themselves


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> Pattern recognition is an aptitude that not everyone has. I'm starting to realize that not everyone can interpret things the same. To me patterns and spatial visualization come very naturally - most people fail my job because of this.


Yes, patterns...








Spurious correlations







www.tylervigen.com





I've worked in computer vision and developed algorithms to detect defects on turbine blades that has certainly be used on the turbine blades of the planes you've traveled with, so I know quite a bit about pattern recognition and spatial visualization.

You can't assume a pattern from data fitting will continue until you can explain it properly.

Hell, I also developed an algorithm to capture the reflectivity of a turbine blade and then simulate it. One thing we couldn't capture was the tiny sparkle effects. So I tricked some maths to data fit a sparkle effect which worked nicely but couldn't be explained, so obviously we couldn't use that as it had no scientific basis to back it up.

Same goes for that rainbow chart.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> You can't assume a pattern from data fitting will continue until you can explain it properly.
> 
> Same goes for that rainbow chart.


That's nice. I never said I assume anything based on one chart. It's a visualization to put things into perspective

I could explain a very simple log chart and how you simply line up some points to see how things trend over time. Why would I want to type that much when we have some people who can't even understand why hot water tank rentals are a bad idea. A whiteboard or something might help but typing is a waste of energy

I also don't need to get in an internet pissing contest with you about what you may or may not do with turbine production in Canada


----------



## m3s

On the rainbow chart, there is a huge spike into the Maximum Bubble Territory in Dec 2017

You can go back and see all the CMF chatter and hype around BTC in late 2017. James4beach also bought BTC at that time and posted it here

I did not care at all about BTC or ETH during all that hype. I bought it during the 2018-2020 bear market where nobody talked about it


----------



## crgf1k

I read a couple of O'Leary's books. He used to say he "would never buy a stock that didn't pay a dividend", and "never spend the principle" etc. He talked about money being little workers that he would send off to work to bring back more money haha. Wow has he changed. As of a couple months ago he had 20% of his portfolio in crypto.


----------



## m3s

crgf1k said:


> I read a couple of O'Leary's books. He used to say he "would never buy a stock that didn't pay a dividend", and "never spend the principle" etc. He talked about money being little workers that he would send off to work to bring back more money haha. Wow has he changed. As of a couple months ago he had 20% of his portfolio in crypto.


He's into clean BTC mining that generates revenue

He's going to love what's being developed now based on fee revenues from lending/borrowing/staking

Even gaming and NFT trading are generating fees and royalty revenue now


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Yeah, very good point. The central banks mismanaged the money supply and sparked high inflation. And this was supposed to be when crypto was going to save the day.
> 
> ETH just fell below 1000 down all the way to 956. The peak price was 4866 so ETH has now fallen 80% from its high.
> 
> Crashing, while inflation hits new highs. Not exactly what we were promised.


If you're listening to the promises of random promoters without doing any due diligence, that's your fault.

I didn't believe them, so I'm good.


----------



## sags

Crypto was struggling to achieve any level of public adoption, and with all the scams, rug pulls, hacks, exchanges locking up, prices falling, and most crypto owners suffering losses........public adoption and trust is completely gone.

Corporations that considered crypto are watching the problems that Microstrategy has created for itself, and running far away from the trouble.

Government regulators are moving in for a close look and that will be the last gasp for crypto.

Some of us knew from the start and stepped up to warn people. Some other people are still flogging a dead horse.

Beware the pumpers and dumpers, the fraudsters and the con men, the criminal and the gullible.........they are not your friend.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Some of us knew from the start and stepped up to warn people. Some other people are still flogging a dead horse.


If you knew anything at all you would have something to show for it

People have been calling BTC dead for 10 years now

BTC will outlive the boomers


----------



## Covariance

If any of your portfolio companies hold these they will need to include the write down in their Q2 numbers.


----------



## ian

According to PP crypto is the only way to go. A solution for everything.

The only way to solve inflation.

Fire the Bank of Canada Governor and move to the Promised Land.

Thanks for your wisdom, your insight, and your vast knowledge of the financial industry.

Not!


----------



## MrMatt

ian said:


> According to PP crypto is the only way to go. A solution for everything.


He's wrong.



> The only way to solve inflation.


Crypto won't solve inflation anymore than gold will.



> Thanks for your wisdom, your insight, and your vast knowledge of the financial industry.
> Not!


PP is just as nonsensical as Trudeau. 

Both parties have failed to provide a credible leader.


----------



## sags

Trudeau doesn't interfere with BOC policy and was roundly criticized by Conservatives for stating that publicly.

I wouldn't expect a PM to be a financial or banking expert. That is up to his Finance Minister with all the resources at their disposal.


----------



## m3s




----------



## sags

People can say whatever they want about Justin Trudeau, but there is no doubt that he has been more successful than many of his critics.


----------



## Tostig

sags said:


> People can say whatever they want about Justin Trudeau, but there is no doubt that he has been more successful than many of his critics.


Trudeau has read Sun Tzu. "Appear weak when you are strong." If his political opponents think he's weak and stupid, I think Trudeau is just fine with that as he has defeated Trump six times and the Conservatives three times.


----------



## Gator13

I noticed a headline this morning that TSX listed crypto company Voyager dropped by 53% in one day. It warned of a potential default on $US 655m it lent to a hedge fund that is in trouble.


----------



## MrMatt

Tostig said:


> Trudeau has read Sun Tzu. "Appear weak when you are strong." If his political opponents think he's weak and stupid, I think Trudeau is just fine with that as he has defeated Trump six times and the Conservatives three times.


I don't think that's it.
It's obvious he's a political genius, and otherwise an idiot.


----------



## m3s

Gator13 said:


> I noticed a headline this morning that TSX listed crypto company Voyager dropped by 53% in one day. It warned of a potential default on $US 655m it lent to a hedge fund that is in trouble.


Voyager CEO was previously the CEO of e*trade so not exactly a moron.

A very large crypto fund stopped responding to their investors. They had been critical of things like ethereum (which crypto natives like) while promoting centralized VC-backed chains (which crypto natives dislike) Seems like many of the successful/experienced people transitioning from traditional finance fell for the VC/hedge fund games.

Terra Luna already collapsed. Solana (actually run by a Ukrainian immigrant ex Qualcomm engineer) and Avalanche are similarly flawed. Hedge funds/VCs pumped them up way more than they should have. Not your keys not your crypto and centralized chains are just fancy blockchain databases

Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX, is now buying up all these companies like Celsius and Voyager


----------



## m3s

CFTC is discussing digital assets today. They have now been mandated by US to provide oversight


----------



## londoncalling

MrMatt said:


> I don't think that's it.
> It's obvious he's a political genius, and otherwise an idiot.


As with all our political parties and leaders I agree and disagree with their views and policy. Which is more important to staying in the role of PM of Canada being a political genius or not being an idiot?


----------



## MrMatt

londoncalling said:


> As with all our political parties and leaders I agree and disagree with their views and policy. Which is more important to staying in the role of PM of Canada being a political genius or not being an idiot?


Being the political genius wins in politics.
I think that's obvious.

It's a mistake to think that people are well rounded, those at the top of their field, such an assumption is even less likely to be true.


----------



## sags

Conservative lament since 2015........If only Trudeau would stop making Canadian's lives better.


----------



## sags

All privatized crypto is crap. It is just a matter of how long they can hold on before they collapse.

If crypto has a future.....it will be controlled and backed by the government.

These cypto platforms lobbied, lobbied, and lobbied the government to approve them........and now look at the mess they created.

Investigations are underway all over. People are going to prison....like other fraudsters and con men before them.

With billions of investor dollars blowing up in smoke.........lame excuses aren't going to cut it.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> All privatized crypto is crap. It is just a matter of how long they can hold on before they collapse.
> 
> If crypto has a future.....it will be controlled and backed by the government.


That's because you want eveything controlled by the government.

I don't get it, you can look down south see the disaster of Trump, and still sit here saying "give power to the government".


Also the "all privatized crypto is crap".
no, you've never made, or likely used, or even actually understand what a dApp is.
I'd suggest you lack the knowledge to make that determination.

It's like people who say RRSPs or The "stock market" is a scam


----------



## sags

Crypto is nothing more than an elaborate scam, with "crypto companies" providing "loans and liquidity" to each other using worthless crypto.

The numbers are all made up. Market cap for worthless tokens is a joke metric. The digital tokens have no intrinsic value.

Assigning a market cap of billions to a company based on how many worthless digital tokens they created is pure economic bullshit.

Sags creates 100 million Sags digital tokens and sells a million of them for $1 each to another crypto firm to establish a "market price".

Actual money never changes hands and the crypto firm buyer is doing the same thing and all they are doing is shuffling digital coins back and forth.

There is no utilitarian use for the tokens and no intrinsic value, but somehow the market value of Sags became $100 million due to one transaction ?

It is all done to make the coins look valuable, present a high value market cap that is made up, so they can sell more tokens to the gullible.

The gullible don't care what the coins do. They just believe they are going to go up in value and they can sell them for an easy profit.

Crypto is the ultimate get rich quick scam.

LOL...........


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> If crypto has a future.....it will be controlled and backed by the government.


This is almost as rich as the time you claimed inflation is good for GICs as long as you shop at goodwill

Almost 



sags said:


> Get serious and get educated.


Yes serious education from the old man who thinks communism is the solution to all our problems

No thanks


----------



## m3s

The CFTC had a very serious and informative hearing on digital assets just this morning

sags prefers to get his education from random clickbait bloggers and CNBC shilling for ads for erectile dysfunction and shingles


----------



## sags

Total horse manure and economic ignorance is what drives crypto.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> It is no different than selling one of my baseball cards to the neighbor for $100 and then assigning the remaining 10,000 cards with a market cap of $1,000,000.
> 
> Total horse manure is what drives crypto.


So you don't even understand what volume or liquidity depth is yet

It amazes me how much young kids are learning about economics thanks to these new markets

It also amazes me how little some old people understand


----------



## MrBlackhill

Crypto may be just a joke, a scam, a Ponzi scheme, but it'll reach new all-time high in the near future, because...

Institutions, hedge funds, big whales are all having fun with this new worldwide casino-like game where they can even more easily manipulate the market so they buy low, sell high while the euphoric retail "investors" (speculators) buy high and sell low.

And with all the crypto ETFs, some companies accepting crypto, all this just started recently, so the game just started, it's being accepted as a fun game to be part of.

We all know that like casinos (owned by the government in Canada, wonder why), this worldwide casino will profit the rich.

Government of Canada will happily tax the gains.


----------



## sags

Crypto money is lining the pockets of sympathetic politicians, some of whom sit on the committees that are supposed to be regulating them.

Companies claiming to be "stable coins" backed by real assets are refusing to disclose those assets. They are boldly refusing to be audited.

What bank, company, or individual would be able to tell the CRA, IRA, or regulators to "take a hike" ?


----------



## sags

Volume and liquidity for a worthless asset.........too funny.

Ponzie and pyramid schemes have volume and liquidity.........until they don't.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Who cares about volume and liquidity for a worthless asset ?


You've repeatedly shown that you have very little understanding of basic finances and unwillingness to learn so it's pointless to explain to you again

Go watch the CFTC hearing if you want to start learning something substantial about the topic from very knowledgeable people

Of course you prefer to watch to Jim Cramer and it shows


----------



## sags

Anyone under the age of 40 has never experienced anything but easy money in the markets, but are the pimple faced economic experts for crypto dudes.

The lack of knowledge and experience is being revealed as the tide flows out......and they were indeed swimming naked.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Anyone under the age of 40 has never experienced anything but easy money in the markets, but are the pimple faced economic experts for crypto dudes.
> 
> The lack of knowledge and experience is being revealed as the tide flows out......and it looks like they were swimming naked.


Sure sags

You've clearly shown your depth of knowledge time and time again

Most users have blocked you


----------



## sags

It is embarrassing when the crypto platforms and exchanges go belly up in the water......a "pickle on a platter" level of embarrassment.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> It is embarrassing when the crypto platforms and exchanges go belly up in the water......a "pickle on a platter" level of embarrassment.


Not at all. The point is to use a decentralized blockchain not a centralized exchange

It's embarrassing when you spend 10 years on here and think inflation is good for GICs

Why do you think so many users have blocked you specifically


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Crypto is nothing more than an elaborate scam, with "crypto companies" providing "loans and liquidity" to each other using worthless crypto.
> 
> The numbers are all made up. Market cap for worthless tokens is a joke metric. The digital tokens have no intrinsic value.
> 
> Assigning a market cap of billions to a company based on how many worthless digital tokens they created is pure economic bullshit.
> 
> Sags creates 100 million Sags digital tokens and sells a million of them for $1 each to another crypto firm to establish a "market price".
> 
> Actual money never changes hands and the crypto firm buyer is doing the same thing and all they are doing is shuffling digital coins back and forth.
> 
> There is no utilitarian use for the tokens and no intrinsic value, but somehow the market value of Sags became $100 million due to one transaction ?
> 
> It is all done to make the coins look valuable, present a high value market cap that is made up, so they can sell more tokens to the gullible.
> 
> The gullible don't care what the coins do. They just believe they are going to go up in value and they can sell them for an easy profit.
> 
> Crypto is the ultimate get rich quick scam.
> 
> LOL...........


That's why I wouldn't buy SAGScoin.

But what about an NFT that is a concert ticket?
The paper ticket is $50.
How much is the NFT ticket for similar seats at the same event worth?
I would say that NFT is legitimately worth $50.

Just because there are scam crypto, or scam businesses, or scam stocks doesn't mean 100% of all those categories are scams.

Just because you don't see the use or value of the technology doesn't mean it's useless.
There are people who don't think the internet is useful.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Companies claiming to be "stable coins" backed by real assets are refusing to disclose those assets. They are boldly refusing to be audited.


So?
I don't invest in companies that refuse to be audited either.


----------



## sags

Who uses paper tickets anymore ?

The NFT isn't worth any more than an online ticket to scan at the door.

The $50 is for admittance past the door.......not the paper ticket, online scan of a ticket, or an NFT of the ticket.

I am still waiting for an example of an actual useful purpose for crypto.

There isn't any. It is a purely speculative novelty based on the "greater fool" and FOMO theories, and it has already begun the final descent into history.


----------



## m3s

Tickets are one of the endless use cases for NFTs

It will cut out middlemen, bots, scalpers and scammers. You can have royalties on resales, rewards for loyalties and lottery draws airdropped to ticket holders

Some people struggle to imagine new things. I remember when people thought the same about the internet and smartphones etc


----------



## sags

Or you can just continue to download the ticket to your phone.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Or you can just continue to download the ticket to your phone.


Yes just like the boomers said about internet, email, smartphones etc

We could even pull up the comments about smartphones on this forum


----------



## sags

Another day......another major "defi" hack.

The decentralized concept is revealing itself to be poorly structured with weak security.

_So-called blockchain bridges have become a prime target for hackers seeking to exploit vulnerabilities in the world of decentralized finance. _









$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack


Hackers have stolen $100 million in cryptocurrency from Horizon, a so-called blockchain bridge developed by crypto start-up Harmony.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The decentralized concept is revealing itself to be poorly structured with weak security.
> 
> _So-called blockchain bridges have become a prime target for hackers seeking to exploit vulnerabilities in the world of decentralized finance. _


A bridge is not a "decentralized concept" It's a highly centralized choke point that custodies your assets and there's no good reason to use them

It's like giving your bank login information to a 3rd party API and then saying the bank had weak security and was poorly structured when you gave up custody of your credentials

Stupid is what stupid does









It's sad how CNBC and all the mainstream media where boomers get their "news" are just clickbait versions of old tweets

They don't even explain anything it's just for boomers to share something that they don't understand to spread their clickbait ad revenue

Even Twitter posts now are basically influencers versions on things that happened on discord last week. So by the time it hits the boomers it's ancient news


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Who uses paper tickets anymore ?
> 
> The NFT isn't worth any more than an online ticket to scan at the door.
> 
> The $50 is for admittance past the door.......not the paper ticket, online scan of a ticket, or an NFT of the ticket.
> 
> I am still waiting for an example of an actual useful purpose for crypto.
> 
> There isn't any. It is a purely speculative novelty based on the "greater fool" and FOMO theories, and it has already begun the final descent into history.


I literally just gave you one, NFT tickets.
Lets say I buy the download of a ticket, how do I know it's valid, how do I know they didn't sell it to multiple people?

NFTs solve that problem.

That is a useful example.


----------



## sags

An NFT is just a hyperlink to the same ticket. They are solutions looking for a problem to solve.


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> An NFT is just a hyperlink to the same ticket. They are solutions looking for a problem to solve.


That's not true. The ticket information is actually on the blockchain. The NFT _is_ the ticket. There may still be an image associated with it, but all of the unique information would be on-chain.

You're still thinking of NFTs as pictures, which is probably one of the worst examples.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> An NFT is just a hyperlink to the same ticket. They are solutions looking for a problem to solve.


You're basically dismissing the entire internet as useless after looking at amateur geocities websites in 1995. Not everyone had the ability to envision all the possibilities of the internet back then

The better implementations already use IPFS distributed file storage and contain far more metadata on chain. Even if it was just a primitive hyperlink to a legacy central database, the decentralized chain would show who holds the ticket, whether it originated from the authentic source or a scammer, and whether it was transferred or resold

Even the primitive ones can do all the basic things I mentioned. The newer ones with better metadata have even more possibilities. It's impossible to explain email to grandpa in the 1990s


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> They are solutions looking for a problem to solve.


The internet was a solution for a problem that doesn't exist if you don't have an imagination

It took another 10 years for the internet to mature. The blockchain is still in the dial up era where it is too difficult for most to understand


----------



## sags

I don’t have any problem of understanding.

Crypto enthusiasts are ascribing attributes to it that don’t exist. That is the avenue they have to push public adoption.

Do some research on NFTs and discover it is only a hyperlink to a server that can easily be moved or removed by the administrator of the server.

The cost of data is too prohibitive to store copious amounts of information on a blockchain and retain it to infinity.
Blockchains also lengthen verification times as they extend.

I have found most crypto enthusiasts have very little understanding of what it is or the limitations and pitfalls.

The volume of people caught in the collapse of these applications serves to support that assessment is accurate.

The internet was useful for scientists, business, and the military long before public adoption.

I was using it before the crypto dudes were born and grew up to inform us how it used to be…..lol


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> An NFT is just a hyperlink to the same ticket. They are solutions looking for a problem to solve.


Uhh not quite, but you clearly don't want to undestand the techology.



sags said:


> I don’t have any problem of understanding.
> 
> Do some research on NFTs and discover it is only a hyperlink to a server that can easily be moved or removed by the administrator of the server.


In the case of the ticket NFT, the "link" will be the seat/event identifier.
It's the proof of a right to that seat.

Also IPFS resources can't be edited, moved or modified by anyone, that's the point. 
Secondly the IPFS doesn't have a single all powerful administrator who can remove data, they can only remove them from their server, not the system as a whole.


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> Do some research on NFTs and discover it is only a hyperlink to a server that can easily be moved or removed by the administrator of the server.


You mean do the research you obviously didn't bother doing? Okay.









How many NFTs are actually on the blockchain?


Nick Hladek surveys the precarious state of NFT security




www.rightclicksave.com







> According to the analysis, *9% of NFTs had their data stored entirely on chain,* 55% had data stored via HTTP or a centralized web server, and 36% had data stored via the InterPlanetary File System (IPFS), a decentralized file storage protocol.



StorageCountShareHTTP8,212,45466.44%IPFS2,942,65023.81%On-chain1,119,3969.06%Arweave85,2770.69%IPNS10.00%Total12,359,778100.00%


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Crypto enthusiasts are ascribing attributes to it that don’t exist. That is the avenue they have to push public adoption.
> 
> Do some research on NFTs and discover it is only a hyperlink to a server that can easily be moved or removed by the administrator of the server.


Where are you doing research exactly? You are sharing links to bloggers who are just writing 30 second pieces for ad revenue

Calling those blogs research is a dunning-kruger effect.



sags said:


> The cost of data is too prohibitive to store copious amounts of information on a blockchain and sretain it to infinity.
> Blockchains also lengthen verification times as they lengthen.


Yes scaling new technology is very complicated. Today's internet is very different than the original dial up internet

Blockchains are becoming far more efficient just like all technology does as it scales. You will be able to monetize your digital storage if you want. You will also be able to monetize processing power if you want. I'm already testing both

P2P networking has been around since the 90s and is proven resilient technology. The difference is the monetization and alignment of incentives



sags said:


> I have found most crypto enthusiasts have very little understanding of what it is or the limitations and pitfalls.
> 
> The volume of people caught in the collapse of these applications serves to support that assessment is accurate.


Dot com bubble didn't kill the internet did it?

Most people don't understand how the internet works either. Especially if they use mainstream media, bloggers and influencers as their source of research

Most blockchains will fail but many will succeed just like internet business


----------



## MrMatt

nathan79 said:


> You mean do the research you obviously didn't bother doing? Okay.


I actually find the rebuttal posts (like yours) quite informative


----------



## sags

Did you bother to read the conclusion of the article, which supports exactly what I posted ?

_While storing NFT data on chain may be ideal,* it is not an economically viable solution *for most works. *HTTP-based storage solutions cannot guarantee NFT data will remain online or unchanged and are subject to a single point of failure.* IPFS offers a decentralized, cost-effective solution to NFT data storage that can be maintained with minimal oversight. *Even if NFT content stored on IPFS becomes inaccessible, it can be reuploaded with an appropriate backup.* 

*However, IPFS does not guarantee that an NFT’s content will always be available. *_


----------



## sags

Also from the article......

_A typical NFT can be thought of as a tree-like structure sprouting from the blockchain, where *ownership is secured at the root* and *content is stored in the branches. *_

As I posted, an NFT is only a hyperlink secured on the blockchain to the content on an unsecured server located somewhere.....if it is still there.


----------



## sags

Also consider the end use of the ticket.

Say it they are tickets to a Blue Jays baseball game. I download the tickets and we open our cellphones in the lineup and they scan our tickets.......we go in.

You secure tickets through an NFT and open up your app to access them and discover the hyperlink is a dead link or points to a picture of a cat.

The content has been moved, removed or replaced......you don't get in to the stadium.

We enjoy the baseball game and you go home wondering why the link was dead. Maybe you can "resurrect" the NFT.......but you already missed the game.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Did you bother to read the conclusion of the article, which supports exactly what I posted ?
> 
> _While storing NFT data on chain may be ideal,* it is not an economically viable solution *for most works. *HTTP-based storage solutions cannot guarantee NFT data will remain online or unchanged and are subject to a single point of failure.* IPFS offers a decentralized, cost-effective solution to NFT data storage that can be maintained with minimal oversight. *Even if NFT content stored on IPFS becomes inaccessible, it can be reuploaded with an appropriate backup.*
> 
> *However, IPFS does not guarantee that an NFT’s content will always be available. *_


What article? You always post random blogs from like years ago and think that's research. At least read more than one random old blog and don't take them as gospel

The way IPFS works is things get cached when people access them. More popular data will be more decentralized and also more readily/quickly accessible. You can also pay to pin data that you are afraid of losing or store it on your own node. This is just smart data management. There will be all levels of decentralized and security depending on the value of the data

Honestly sags this would take about 30 seconds to learn on google so I don't know what you call research. Your sources certainly aren't very good.


----------



## sags

If you don't know that all of the quotes came from the article linked and quoted by Nathan79...........you didn't bother to read the article.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> You secure tickets through an NFT and open up your app to access them and discover the hyperlink is a dead link or points to a picture of a cat.
> 
> The content has been moved, removed or replaced......you don't get in to the stadium.


You see that's the issue, you think that an NFT is a http: link.
While that's possible, that's not how an event ticket is done.

You literally don't understand the technology.




sags said:


> Say it they are tickets to a Blue Jays baseball game. I download the tickets and we open our cellphones in the lineup and they scan our tickets.......we go in.


Now lets say you sell those tickets to someone, can they verify they have the only barcode to get in?
No, they can't. But with an NFT they CAN confirm they're the only ones who own the tickets.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> If you don't know that all of the quotes came from the article linked and quoted by Nathan79...........you didn't bother to read the article.


No I don't read them

I run test nets and in closed chats with developers so I could probably teach the writer. Yesterday I was discussing with some developers how even 3D printing and CRC machines will be monetized by NFT markets. It's like the early days of Apple app store right now

The use cases are as wide as the internet and smartphones combined.



sags said:


> Did you bother to read the conclusion of the article, which supports exactly what I posted ?
> 
> _While storing NFT data on chain may be ideal,* it is not an economically viable solution *for most works. *HTTP-based storage solutions cannot guarantee NFT data will remain online or unchanged and are subject to a single point of failure.* IPFS offers a decentralized, cost-effective solution to NFT data storage that can be maintained with minimal oversight. *Even if NFT content stored on IPFS becomes inaccessible, it can be reuploaded with an appropriate backup.*
> 
> *However, IPFS does not guarantee that an NFT’s content will always be available. *_


You seem to be highlighting snippets that suit your limited understanding without understanding the full context

You can store data off chain, on arveave, on IPFS etc depending on how valuable the data is and how it will be used. Why use 1990s HTTP when we already have IPFS that most people are using for free. If you are worried that nobody else will cache your NFT for you - you can pin it yourself on IPFS or pay to have it pinned

You seem to be misunderstanding that not all data needs to be stored or used the same way. I'm sorry sags but you aren't going to magically poke holes in something that people from all the major tech companies are now working on by reading some random blog by some random guy

There's already many different uses for NFTs and NFT storage being developed and tested. Mesh networks and Starlink will make it so you don't even need the old ISP anymore. You haven't even began to scratch the surface.

There are already massive new music platforms coming and even the record labels know the legacy model will die


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> Did you bother to read the conclusion of the article, which supports exactly what I posted ?
> 
> _While storing NFT data on chain may be ideal,* it is not an economically viable solution *for most works. *HTTP-based storage solutions cannot guarantee NFT data will remain online or unchanged and are subject to a single point of failure.* IPFS offers a decentralized, cost-effective solution to NFT data storage that can be maintained with minimal oversight. *Even if NFT content stored on IPFS becomes inaccessible, it can be reuploaded with an appropriate backup.*
> 
> *However, IPFS does not guarantee that an NFT’s content will always be available. *_


This discussion is getting pretty circular. Whether it's economically viable depends on the amount of data. How much data is required for a ticket? You need to explain why you think a ticket requires a hyperlink rather than just a few strings of data on the blockchain. How is it possible that 9% of NFTs are completely on chain if a hyperlink is required as you seem to believe?


----------



## m3s

For a ticket I would just put the critical metadata on chain. That uses minimal blockspace and any graphic can be off chain because it's not critical

A graphical display of the data could be done in any way you want tailored for many different uses (ticket operator might want to display more data than the ticket consumer for example) In web3 the user interface is done in many different ways off the same data.

All data is stored and consumed for different purposes. New military networks are being developed off the same technology with different data requirements


----------



## sags

On chain NFTs are still in the development phase. The problem they seek to address is the lack of security and reliability of off-chain servers.

The two major problems with "everything on the blockchain" are scalabilty to accommodate data and speed of transactions, and the cost of data and fees.

At the present time NFTs are primarily hyperlinks that serve as pointers to the content on a server somewhere.









The importance of 100% on-chain NFT - NonFungible.com


To guarantee the immutability that is so dear to NFTs, some projects are using "100% on-chain" NFTs. What does this mean?




nonfungible.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> At the present time NFTs are primarily hyperlinks that serve as pointers to the content on a server somewhere.


There you go in a circle again

You keep using words that you don't understand

There's no point in explaining the same basic concept 10 times


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> On chain NFTs are still in the development phase. The problem they seek to address is the lack of security and reliability of off-chain servers.


No they don't.
The security and reliability of off chain servers is just fine if you choose the appropriate technology.

If you don't want the link to break, put it up on IPFS, and pay to have it perpetually hosted. 

You claim an issue with reliability of off chain servers.
What specifically are you referring to? We already have unbreakable links that don't rely on a single server.




> The two major problems with "everything on the blockchain" are scalability to accommodate data and speed of transactions, and the cost of data and fees.


Why do you say this?



> At the present time NFTs are primarily hyperlinks that serve as pointers to the content on a server somewhere.


Some are, some aren't.
And not all hyperlinks are equal.


----------



## m3s

Blockchain trilemma exists

That's why there will be highly secure blockchains for storage and settlement of high value with high fees - then there will be faster blockchains with high scalability and low fees - and everything in between for many different purposes

sags reads a few old random blogs and thinks he understands something without scratching the surface


----------



## sags

Crypto is an intertwined labyrinth of scams and fraud schemes, infused with meaningless techno babble.......no more no less.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Crypto is an intertwined labyrinth of scams and fraud schemes, infused with meaningless techno babble.......no more no less.


Sounds like criticism of the internet, or the stock market.

The reality is there is some really cool technology with incredible promise.
Sure there are some scams in crypto, but there are scams in the stock market too.
Remember Enron?

Your entire arguement seems to be
1. I see scams, so it must all be scams.
2. I hear about old problems, but don't realize they've been solved.
3. People are using it wrong, therefore it's no good.
4. I don't understand how distributed authority is different than centralized authority.
- You also don't seem to understand the concept of anything but centralized authority. 
This is obvious in your view on politics, and since you don't understand, you think concepts like democracy and distributed authority are bad. Not recognizing that they're simply different.
5. Crypto isn't a replacement system, it's a DIFFERENT system.


----------



## sags

Blockchain protocol may have some future value......but that remains to be proven.

Blockchains were not initially conceived for massive use in the full economy.

They have difficulty scaling up, and the financial and energy usage cost of storing all the data is enormous and cripples the concept.

Tokens have no value at all, which is why there are 20,0000 different ones. Anyone can create them.


----------



## sags

LOL........

Bitcoin price was $68,000 US when this was released. The price today is $21,000 US.

Matt Damon should do more videos titled.......Sorry About Your Misfortune and Fortune Favours The Promoters.


----------



## sags

Celsius have been advised to declare bankruptcy by two bankruptcy law firms. Investor funds would likely not be returned.

There is also news that Goldman Sachs is putting together an investor group (not their own money) to buy the Celsius assets for bankruptcy prices.

In that case, investors may receive some of their assets back at a steep discount.

The vultures are circling overhead.

I am glad I didn't recommend Celsius, Voyager, and other crazy crypto like some people did.









Celsius Enlists Advisers for Potential Bankruptcy, According to WSJ Report - Blockworks


Per the lending platform's terms of use, clients are not guaranteed the return of their funds if Celsius declares bankruptcy.




blockworks.co


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Blockchain protocol may have some future value......but that remains to be proven.


Okay.
I would say a token that can be used to pay for a service that you'd otherwise pay Canadian dollars for has value today.



> Blockchains were not initially conceived for massive use in the full economy.


Different blockchains have different designs. Some are EASILY capable of massive use.
FYI the internet wasn't designed for massive use in the full economy or society at large... look where we are today.



> They have difficulty scaling up, and the financial and energy usage cost of storing all the data is enormous and cripples the concept.


Any system not designed to scale up will have difficulty.
However systems properly designed to scale can manage it.
There are crypto technologies capable of handling millions of transactions per second, this far exceeds current demand.

Energy use for processing transactions or storing isn't unreasonable.
Only Proof of Work solutions require lots of energy. Arguably some solutions will likley use LESS energy than conventional transactions.
I'm not sure why storing all the data is a concern, banks don't have trouble storing all our transactions today, do you think blockchains use exponentially more storage?



> Tokens have no value at all, which is why there are 20,0000 different ones. Anyone can create them.


Again you're saying tokens like they're all the same.
Saying none of them have value is like saying currencies don't have value, because so many are worthless.
There are thousands of currencies and thousands of blockchain tokens, some have value, some don't.


----------



## sags




----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> View attachment 23327


You really don't plan on adding any value, do you?


----------



## sags

I am done with people dumb enough to believe they can create their own money.

News flash.......there is no such thing as a money tree.

Billions of dollars are being stolen from gullible people and the criminals need to be red flagged.

I will continue performing my civic duty and warning of the scams and failures.


----------



## sags




----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I will continue performing my civic duty and warning of the scams and failures.


Most of the active forum members have publicly blocked you

Your posts are barely comprehensible and go in circles as if you lack basic reading comprehension

You should learn to read more and type less


----------



## sags

Which defi creations do you have for us today ? The others ones didn't work out so good.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Which defi creations do you have for us today ? The others ones didn't work out so good.


If you mean Celsius (which is not DeFi at all) the risks were known from the start, small amounts put there for testing, and there were plenty of signs since the US banned it and time to get out

I don't think you understand risk or how this works. Then again you don't understand that inflation is not good for GICs. Pointless to explain to you simple concepts 1000 times

Wayne Gretzky says "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" It does you no good to go around "warning everybody" about risks you don't even understand yourself


----------



## sags

sags said:


> Crypto is an intertwined labyrinth of scams and fraud schemes, infused with meaningless techno babble.......no more no less.


_Three Arrows Capital, a crypto-focused hedge fund, has to meet a deadline on Monday to repay more than $670 million in loans or face default, in a case that could have a ripple effect across the digital asset market. _









Crypto hedge fund at center of crisis faces risk of default as deadline to repay $670 million nears


Three Arrows Capital, or 3AC, is facing a liquidity crisis after the collapse of terraUSD, margin calls on its loans and a massive slump in the crypto market.




www.cnbc.com





_Voyager Digital__, a digital asset brokerage, said last week that it had lent 3AC 15,250 bitcoins and $350 million of the stablecoin USDC. At Monday’s prices, the total loan equates to more than $675 million. Voyager gave Three Arrows Capital until June 24 to repay $25 million USDC and the entire outstanding loan by June 27, Monday. 

Voyager, which is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, has seen its shares plummet 94% this year. 

But the Financial Times reported after the tweet that U.S.-based crypto lenders BlockFi and Genesis liquidated some of 3AC’s positions, citing people familiar with the matter. 3AC had borrowed from BlockFi but was unable to meet the margin call. _


----------



## gardner

TRON DAO's USDD has been having trouble maintaining its peg in the past two weeks. Think it's the next to fail?


----------



## sags

It looks like they are treading water as fast as they can.

The pool of willing lenders to provide cash bailouts in the crypto market is drying up.









USDD Loses its Peg. What’s happened?


After the news that Tron DAO Has Purchased $50 Million In Bitcoin And TRX To Add To Its USDD Reserves,




news.coincu.com


----------



## sags

The crypto / de-fi world looks eerily similar to the MBS (mortgage backed securities) collapse in 2007-08, where the Wall Street "creations" were purposefully complicated, interwoven, and opaque to facilitate the illusion of "collateral" in order to sell the products at high prices while hiding the background jungle of connections. When banks went to foreclose on defaulted mortgages they couldn't prove who owned the rights to collect on which mortgages. They had no idea who actually "owned" the debt.

As a result, bankruptcy judges threw cases out of court and savvy home owners began hiring lawyers to challenge the defaults.

The result was huge losses, restructuring and bankruptcies for many lenders and led to the ultimate demise of several large financial institutions, while some savvy home owners continued to live in their homes mortgage free. It also led to huge bailouts to financial instiutions by the US taxpayers and a lot of misery for the public as the economy fell into the "great recession".

It makes me wonder if creators/developers have deliberately replicated the same situation in crypto / def for personal profit.

We know there has been some infiltration into the stock markets....Microstrategy, ARKK, and the revelation it also seeped into the Caisse pension fund.

Where all the trails lead is anyone's guess and it will take deep forensic analysis to see where the biggest hidden problems may still lie.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The crypto / de-fi world looks eerily similar to the MBS (mortgage backed securities) collapse in 2007-08, where the Wall Street "creations" were purposefully complicated, interwoven, and opaque to facilitate the illusion of "collateral" in order to sell the products at high prices while hiding the background jungle of connections. When banks went to foreclose on defaulted mortgages they couldn't prove who owned the rights to collect on which mortgages. They had no idea who actually "owned" the debt.


Rehypothecation is a huge problem not just in crypto

Same thing is going on in China which has contagion to everything including Canadian banks. That contagion risk is why I sold off a lot of risky assets last fall. I cleared out of Celsius because it was banned for US retail which causes mass withdrawals and I know others were able to withdraw from Voyager

The same thing definitely exists in the traditional market except the traditional market also lobbies the government to ban things like Celsius, not approve spot ETF for GBTC and then they are able to buy up assets for dirt cheap. This stuff has been going on forever even in Canadian provincial governments

Crashes are good to clear out the leveraged mess. Also extremely good if you were able to sell. Some people were even able to short (that's too far for me) All markets are markets crypto or not I was saying a dot com style crash was coming last year and the good assets would eventually rise

If you want to hide under your mattress that's fine but don't expect everyone else to spend their lives under a mattress


----------



## sags

Yet another cypto onion to peel........

It is difficult to believe this is a real story and not a story on the parody site Onion.

They have an unnamed "high profile" investor, who is in default of a loan who has a clause in his contract that he can't be liquidated.....and the exchange's solution is to create a new coin and sell it so everyone can withdraw their proceeds from the exchange. There is no mention of collateral or how the exchange will pay the 20% promised "interest", except that the original defaulter will buy back the recovery tokens sometime in the future.

Yea...........sure he will.

It is amateurish and possibly criminal how all these failing crypto projects were structured and marketed.









Crypto exchange CoinFlex will issue $47 million worth of recovery tokens after halting customer withdrawals


The crypto exchange is attempting to solve its liquidity problems through rvUSD, with withdrawals expected to resume on the platform by June 30.




markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> It is amateurish how all these failing crypto projects were structured and marketed.


Nothing new or different from anything non-crypto

Lots of amateurish stuff going on in business and penny stocks

Anyone with a clue avoids these random exchanges and coins


----------



## sags

Companies have real assets as collateral.

Crypto exchanges sell and trade tokens, their collateral assets are other tokens, secured by still other tokens.......all with no rooted intrinsic value.

Big difference.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Companies have real assets as collateral.
> 
> Crypto exchanges sell and trade tokens, their collateral assets are other tokens, secured by still other tokens.......all with no rooted intrinsic value.
> 
> Big difference.


I think I've demonstrated your lack of understanding of the very basics enough times

You have shown us repeatedly that you don't understand inflation, volume, liquidity or collateral by your criticisms here. Companies are not necessarily backed by real assets so your statement shows yet again a lack of understanding of basics.

There are many stocks without any intrinsic value. Fiat had no intrinsic value by definition. The SEC claims that crypto is either a securities or commodity. We've discussed this many times and you clearly show no ability to comprehend the basics.

It's actually incredibly impressive how little you understand after spending so much time here


----------



## sags

_The SEC claims that crypto is either a securities or commodity. _

SEC chair Gensler said yesterday that "only" bitcoin is a commodity. All the rest of crypto are securities and have to meet the requirements and regulations.









SEC Chair Gensler Affirms Bitcoin Is a Commodity — 'That's the Only One I'm Going to Say' – Regulation Bitcoin News


The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, has affirmed that bitcoin is a commodity.




news.bitcoin.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> _The SEC claims that crypto is either a securities or commodity. _
> 
> SEC chair Gensler said yesterday that "only" bitcoin is a commodity. All the rest of crypto are securities and have to meet the requirements and regulations.


Does the government tax illegal substances that are worth nothing?

It can't be both nothing/illegal and yet a regulated industry that is taxed at the same time sags. The CFTC which regulates commodities is trying to figure out how to regulate crypto and has hearings on crypto which I posted

If it's a security that implies that it's no different.. so what is it


----------



## MrMatt

How Walmart And Others Are Riding A Blockchain Wave To Supply Chain Paradise


The supply chain blockchain ecosystem is growing strong with networks increasing in numbers and technical solutions maturing. Walmart, Carrefour, Nestle, Maersk and MSC are already tracking SKUs, shipments and invoices over blockchain and the expectation is those numbers to increase.




www.forbes.com





I listened to the Freakonomics episode and they mentioned Walmarts use of blockchain technologies.

I think people look at cryptocurrency and think that's the interesting part. I think the distributed aspect is the interesting part.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I listened to the Freakonomics episode and they mentioned Walmarts use of blockchain technologies.
> 
> I think people look at cryptocurrency and think that's the interesting part. I think the distributed aspect is the interesting part.


Supply chain is an obvious application. There's lots of scams in the supply chain especially overseas.

With a public blockchain you should be able to scan a QR code on the label and see the supply chain history and origins. Fake transactions still persist but it's far easier for the buyer and marketplace to verify authenticity

Cryptocurrency is a misnomer. Rather than a currency to buy "stuff" it is to validate and incentivize the network. Very hard for most to understand just like the internet was hard to understand in the 90s

If a central authority runs the network it is a regular database. You pay for the distributed security/consensus


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> SEC chair Gensler said yesterday that "only" bitcoin is a commodity. All the rest of crypto are securities and have to meet the requirements and regulations.


This is why dumb people shouldn't just google what they want to hear and then only read the clickbait titles

He said BTC was the only cryptocurrency he was comfortable saying was a commodity, while many were securities it didn't address explicitly what all others were

“That’s the only one I’m going to say because I’m not going to talk about any one of these tokens” Gary G

Otherwise why would they be pushing for the CFTC to create regulations for crypto when it regulates commodities.


----------



## sags

Walmart developed a private blockchain. No crypto tokens needed.








How Walmart Canada Uses Blockchain to Solve Supply-Chain Challenges


Walmart Canada applied blockchain to solve a common logistics nightmare: payment disputes with its 70 third-party freight carriers. To solve the problem it built a blockchain network. The system has not only virtually eliminated the payments problem; it also has led to significant operational...




hbr.org


----------



## sags

SEC Gensler’s comments created panic in the crypto world.

Crypto is crashing and the decline seals the fate of failed platforms like Celsius.

Michael Saylor is turning over the cushions to buy bitcoins to stave off a margin call.

Don’t listen to the pumpers.

They are panicking and spreading BS


----------



## m3s

Yea I know a dev that worked for Walmart US.

"An analysis identified the root cause of the problem: the use of multiple information systems between Walmart Canada and its carriers that could not talk to each other. Consequently, reconciliation had to be performed manually — a labor-intensive, time-consuming process riddled with inconsistencies."

So they found multiple information systems to be a problem so they created their own private supply chain information system. They created a centralized database because they don't understand the point of decentralization

Supply chains are global


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> SEC Gensler’s comments created panic in the crypto world.
> 
> Crypto is crashing and the decline seals the fate of failed platforms like Celsius.
> 
> Michael Saylor is turning over the cushions to buy bitcoins to stave off a margin call.
> 
> Don’t listen to the pumpers. They are panicking.


Don't listen to clickbait or CNBC saggy

All we have to do is look at history of success.

Your track record is less than impressive


----------



## sags

The US Treasury has opened a criminal investigation into Celsius and Korea won’t let Terra employees leave the country while they investigate.


----------



## sags

On the contrary, my predictions have been dead on.

All the bs about 18% yields, overcollateralization, is being revealed in real time.


----------



## sags

Retailers don’t want their competitors looking at their supply chain transactions.

There was an old boomer saying….Eatons doesn’t tell Sears their business .

Boomers are wise.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> On the contrary, my predictions have been dead on.




A broken clock is "dead on" twice a day saggy man.

You have to put money and a time with a prediction or it's worth exactly nothing. I was selling last fall so you are confusing things - as usual

Some people who are bullish tech were shorting tech.


----------



## londoncalling

sags said:


> There was an old boomer saying….Eatons doesn’t tell Sears their business .


 🤣 I had to give this a laugh and understand the lesson you are trying to teach. However, neither of these companies have the great reputation they once did. In fact, most gen z probably barely recognize the names.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Retailers don’t want their competitors looking at their supply chain transactions.
> 
> There was an old boomer saying….Eatons doesn’t tell Sears their business .
> 
> Boomers are wise.


You have some shining examples of boomer logic here.

I'm sure many kids told Sears to make a website and the wise boomers said nobody wants to shop online kid 😂 Now they gone

If only those boomer companies got with modern times eh


----------



## sags

Actually, they were ahead of their times with mail order shopping. In fact, people could buy an auto or a house through the Eaton's catalogue.

Eatonia, Saskatchewan is named after Eatons and still has a home ordered by catalogue from Eatons on display as a museum.


----------



## james4beach

Could be Coinbase (COIN) was a scam too... going IPO during the peak mania.

If you count the peak price as $430 on its first day of trading (IPO mega hype), the COIN share price is *down 89%*

Good job to these guys for recreating the dot-com bubble experience. I also think it's hilarious that Cathie Wood first ruined her dot-com investors (21 years ago), and then found a fresh batch of suckers willing to follow her again!


----------



## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Could be Coinbase (COIN) was a scam too... going IPO during the peak mania.
> 
> If you count the peak price as $430 on its first day of trading (IPO mega hype), the COIN share price is *down 89%*
> 
> Good job to these guys for recreating the dot-com bubble experience. I also think it's hilarious that Cathie Wood first ruined her dot-com investors (21 years ago), and then found a fresh batch of suckers willing to follow her again!


The thing is, just like the dot-com boom, there is real technological advancement and innovation happening.

Lots of scams during dotcom, lots of scams in crypto.

But there are some good ideas out there, they're just hard to find.


----------



## MrMatt

MrMatt said:


> The thing is, just like the dot-com boom, there is real technological advancement and innovation happening.
> 
> Lots of scams during dotcom, lots of scams in crypto.
> 
> But there are some good ideas out there, they're just hard to find.


By hard to find, I mean finding a way to make money.
For those who have the right problem, blockchains are great solutions.


----------



## kcowan

After the success of LVTS, I suspect that Lynx will eventually embrace blockchain. It might be a part of an international solution.


----------



## sags

Beware the fudsters……they badly need you to buy their crypto off them .


----------



## sags

Ftx walks away from Celsius.

Celsius, 3 arrows capital , coin flex and more all going to liquidate.

Billions lost to investors…..savings, retirements, houses, gone due to massive leverage.

Many investigations already underway.


----------



## londoncalling

kcowan said:


> After the success of LVTS, I suspect that Lynx will eventually embrace blockchain. It might be a part of an international solution.


Here is an excellent and example of how blockchain can improve the current system. It is a simple enough example for almost anyone to follow. This acts as a reminder that inventions and utilizations can serve a greater purpose other than speculative investment. There is always speculation in the start up early adoption phase. With more attention comes more speculation until scammers see opportunity. Then massive destruction for those entities that have no value. The survivors then become the industry leaders. Has happened repeatedly with innovation throughout history.


----------



## sags

Neither bitcoins and any of the other 20,000 tokens are beneficial or necessary to build a blockchain...........as Walmart has already done.

That is what the promoters and pumpers of 20,000 tokens fail to understand.

Unless tokens are needed to pay transaction costs on a blockchain.......what value do tokens have ?

No value apparently to Walmart.


----------



## kcowan

And then there is this:
Pentagon uncovers vulnerabilities


----------



## MrMatt

kcowan said:


> And then there is this:
> Pentagon uncovers vulnerabilities


Yeah, but the summary is lacking. some details.
For example this quote suggests that it might be a security problem.
""According to Trail of Bits, ViaBTC, a leading global mining pool, assigns the password “123” to its accounts. Pooling, another mining organization, does not even validate credentials at all, and Slushpool—which has mined more than 1.2 million Bitcoin since 2010—instructs users to ignore the password field. ""

But really it isn't.
There is no security problem with other people giving you credit for their work.


Also people talk about "market cap" like that actually represents the real value.
The flaw of the latest trade * all available shares = value of the company is useful, but it doesn't really mean what people think it does.


----------



## bgc_fan

kcowan said:


> And then there is this:
> Pentagon uncovers vulnerabilities


Why not directly point to the report itself? https://assets-global.website-files...ended_Centralities_in_Distributed_Ledgers.pdf
Page 8 is of interest because it points out the possibility that Bitcoin could be compromised by taking over 4 of the largest mining pools. Not likely going to happen unless you get state actors involved (ahem, China/Russia). Etherium is worse at 3. But there are other blockchains that are less susceptible, as on page 9. Other things in the report, but takes some time to read.


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Could be Coinbase (COIN) was a scam too... going IPO during the peak mania.
> 
> If you count the peak price as $430 on its first day of trading (IPO mega hype), the COIN share price is *down 89%*


IPOs are often overpriced and I'm sure you are smarter to know that price is separate from fundamentals by now

Have you seen SHOP lately? Down about the same isn't it (I don't have my charts)


----------



## m3s

bgc_fan said:


> Why not directly point to the report itself? https://assets-global.website-files...ended_Centralities_in_Distributed_Ledgers.pdf
> Page 8 is of interest because it points out the possibility that Bitcoin could be compromised by taking over 4 of the largest mining pools. Not likely going to happen unless you get state actors involved (ahem, China/Russia). Etherium is worse at 3. But there are other blockchains that are less susceptible, as on page 9. Other things in the report, but takes some time to read.


Wow somebody posted something that isn't clickbait from a random 6 month old blog? An actual report from this month even? I will actually read this when I have time thank you

Looking at page 9.. they conveniently failed to show the chain with the best nakamoto coefficient Cardano. They instead show all the VC funded chains.

This is a recurring theme as Cardano is almost never mentioned anywhere unless it is VC funded FUD. Most of those chains have major flaws I would only trust a few of them


----------



## sags

Voyager announces they are suspending all withdrawals and transfers.


----------



## sags

Cardano (Ada token) has lost 66% of it's value in the last year. It has fallen from $3.60 in August 2021 to .58 cents today.

The IPO price was .14 cents, so achieving a 360% gain on a "penny stock" isn't unusual....since the starting point is so low.

I guess you could say it is one of the "least ugly" crypto in the space, although it would be premature since the decline in crypto isn't finished yet.

You claimed you made 6 figures profit on crypto, and then you say you sold it at the optimal time to preserve those gains.

It makes me wonder why you are pumping crypto if you have no confidence in it and already cashed out.


----------



## sags

Cardano might be the most secure blockchain, which remains to be proven, but regardless there is no value use for tokens on a blockchain.

As per Warren Buffet's investment strategy on moats.....where is the moat around blockchain technology, since it is easy to replicate for private use ?

I think tokens for blockchains is like someone inventing a left handed shovel and claiming it is a "disruptive" new invention that left handed people must have.

Problem with that theory is that a shovel is a shovel is a shovel.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> This is a recurring theme as Cardano is almost never mentioned anywhere unless it is VC funded FUD. Most of those chains have major flaws I would only trust a few of them


People learn.

Butterins first blockchain wasn't ethereum.
Hoskinsons first blockchain wasn't Cardano.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Cardano might be the most secure blockchain, which remains to be proven, but regardless there is no value use for tokens on a blockchain.
> 
> As per Warren Buffet's investment strategy on moats.....where is the moat around blockchain technology, since it is easy to replicate for private use ?
> 
> I think tokens for blockchains is like someone inventing a left handed shovel and claiming it is a "disruptive" new invention that left handed people must have.
> 
> Problem with that theory is that a shovel is a shovel is a shovel.


The token is required to pay for limited block space on a blockchain. The token incentivizes decentralization and security of the blockchain. Otherwise people can just DDOS and spam for free

You can not easily replicate a decentralized blockchain. Many have copied blockchain code but unless the nodes move to decentralize and secure it is pointless. Most of them fail because they didn't understand why things are the way they are. You should at least understand the very basics of things that you criticize. You have shown that you not only do not understand but also don't bother to learn or read.

Your concept of research is to google what you want to believe, click the clickbait and then post it here. Random old blogs and maintream media are designed to entertain and engage you just long enough to get eyes on ads won't teach you anything. Honestly you should really try signing up for one of many free online university courses you will learn how to do basic research. You clearly have time

There was a decent report posted by @bgc_fan which you obviously didn't read. It's probably VC funded and I haven't read it yet but it's much better than random blogs


----------



## m3s

MIT posts most of their courses online for free

You can even watch Gary Gensler's courses on blockchains. Albeit outdated by now

There's so much free education online people really need to stop consuming trash gossip blogs by random unemployed kids


----------



## sags

From what I have read, corporations are avoiding decentralization because the host of entry points with sketchy security doesn't fit their needs.

Private blockchains are already in use in the corporate world. There is no need for any crypto tokens in private blockchains.

The way I view it.......corporations "studied" the blockchain, adapted it for themselves, and eliminated the need for costly tokens.


----------



## sags

The differences between "private" centralized and "public" decentralized blockchains.

*Public and private blockchains

Public blockchain networks typically allow anyone to join and for participants to remain anonymous*. A public blockchain uses internet-connected computers to validate transactions and achieve consensus. Bitcoin is probably the most well-known example of a public blockchain, and it achieves consensus through "bitcoin mining." Computers on the bitcoin network, or “miners,” try to solve a complex cryptographic problem to create proof of work and thereby validate the transaction. *Outside of public keys, there are few identity and access controls in this type of network.

Private blockchains use identity to confirm membership and access privileges and typically only permit known organizations to join.* Together, the organizations form a private, members-only "business network."* A private blockchain in a permissioned network achieves consensus through a process called "selective endorsement," where known users verify the transactions*. *Only members with special access and permissions can maintain the transaction ledger. This network type requires more identity and access controls.*

When building a blockchain application, it’s critical to assess which type of network will best suit your business goals.

*Private and permissioned networks can be tightly controlled and preferable for compliance and regulatory reasons. *

However, public and permissionless networks can achieve greater decentralization and distribution.









What is Blockchain Security? | IBM


Blockchain security is defined as a blockchain network risk management system for enterprise-level business.



www.ibm.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The differences between "private" centralized and "public" decentralized blockchains.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What is Blockchain Security? | IBM
> 
> 
> Blockchain security is defined as a blockchain network risk management system for enterprise-level business.
> 
> 
> 
> www.ibm.com


Apple has been calling IBM an irrelevant legacy dinosaur for a decade already. Looks like Steve Jobs was right as Apple now has their own superior chips 😂 ZKP is already here and lets you have privacy on a public chain just like we already have privacy on a public internet if you know how to use encryption

The military runs its own networks on a secure enclave of the public internet. It will also run its own closed off blockchains for the same reason. For things like a global supply chain it makes no sense for Walmart Canada to have its own private network when it could just use ZKP. Plus transparency is very important for the non-boomer world

This would be like Sears Canada making its own internet protocol in the 90s. Lots of companies try weird stuff that fails like CNN+ doesn't mean they know what they are doing with new technology 😂 These companies are run by people who don't understand what is coming

A lot of blockchain devs come from those companies and talk about how clueless they are. I remember legacy companies had the same crazy ideas about the internet. Just lack of understanding. The main thing missing right now is scale and digital identity. Just like the internet it takes decades to build


----------



## sags

__





Crypto collapse! — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate







www.greaterfool.ca


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Crypto collapse! — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.greaterfool.ca


Isn't that the guy who's been saying Cdn RE will crash for like 25 years now?

Didn't you listen to him and sell your house and then watched it do a 10x after you sold?

Don't listen to random bloggers with no history of being right saggy


----------



## sags

The article was written by Ryan Lewenza, a senior investment advisor for high net worth clients.

_Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd._

I suppose you get your information from the same crypto dude on Youtube as Pierre Poilievre.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The blog article was written by Ryan Lewenza.
> 
> _Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd._


It's pretty obvious he has no clue what he's writing about for so many reasons. Way out of his depth

If he was a good portfolio manager he wouldn't be writing about crypto for a blog that's been wrong for 25 years anyways

I forgot greater fool even existed. He's a broken clock that somehow hasn't been right once in 25 years


----------



## sags

How come Pierre doesn't talk about bitcoin anymore ?

He has been talking for years about "decentralizing" Canada's economy and allowing bitcoin to be an "alternative currency".

He said bitcoins would "eliminate inflation" for Canadians and make us "financially free" and remove the "gatekeepers".

Doesn't Pierre love bitcoins anymore ? Bitcoins aren't going to save us from inflation ? We aren't going to be financially free ?

Pierre....Pierre.....wherefore art thou Pierre ?

It is hard to believe that Pierre was actually the finance critic for the CPC.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Bitcoins aren't going to save us from inflation ? We aren't going to be financially free ?


Nobody can save you sags


----------



## crgf1k

sags said:


> How come Pierre doesn't talk about bitcoin anymore ?
> 
> He has been talking for years about "decentralizing" Canada's economy and allowing bitcoin to be an "alternative currency".
> 
> He said bitcoins would "eliminate inflation" for Canadians and make us "financially free" and remove the "gatekeepers".
> 
> Doesn't Pierre love bitcoins anymore ? Bitcoins aren't going to save us from inflation ? We aren't going to be financially free ?
> 
> Pierre....Pierre.....wherefore art thou Pierre ?
> 
> It is hard to believe that Pierre was actually the finance critic for the CPC.


I like Pierre, but I don't get the whole bitcoin thing. I do like that he said he would ban a Canadian central bank digital currency though, because giving the government the ability to shut off you money is dangerous. Apparently there is already one in development.


----------



## MrMatt

crgf1k said:


> I like Pierre, but I don't get the whole bitcoin thing. I do like that he said he would ban a Canadian central bank digital currency though, because giving the government the ability to shut off you money is dangerous. Apparently there is already one in development.


I don't "like" Pierre.
I'm picking the least bad person likely to win


----------



## m3s

crgf1k said:


> I like Pierre, but I don't get the whole bitcoin thing. I do like that he said he would ban a Canadian central bank digital currency though, because giving the government the ability to shut off you money is dangerous. Apparently there is already one in development.


He said people should be allowed to buy and spend crypto

And why not


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> He said people should be allowed to buy and spend crypto
> 
> And why not


Authoritarian Nanny state doesn't understand/like it.


----------



## MrBlackhill

I agree that people should be allowed to buy and sell crypto.

But I don't like that PP made some YT video interviewing a guy claiming how crypto saved him, his business and family.

Look at how this video is a pure joke from beginning to end.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> I agree that people should be allowed to buy and sell crypto.
> 
> But I don't like that PP made some YT video interviewing a guy claiming how crypto saved him, his business and family.
> 
> Look at how this video is a pure joke from beginning to end.


So you think it's a joke that his parents lost 30-40 years worth of savings from work because of government mismanagement?

That story has played out all over the world and is happening currently in many countries today. Look at Lebanon, Turkey, Ukraine, Venezuela etc There are Chinese rioting today because $6B worth of their life savings just disappeared from banks

Canadians live a very pampered sheltered live and can't fathom that Afghanistan is not just a cartoon fantasy on TV to them.


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> So you think it's a joke that his parents lost 30-40 years worth of savings from work because of government mismanagement?


No, the joke is that Bitcoin saved him, his business and his family.

How many watched that video from 3 months ago and decided to buy Bitcoin under that influence? Currently down more than -50%.

You should recall that most Canadians are bad with finances and financially illiterate. Therefore, Bitcoin should be the last financial "advice" they should follow.

Do you think the average Canadian understands crypto? And do you think the average Canadian can sleep at night with that volatility?


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> No, the joke is that Bitcoin saved him, his business and his family.
> 
> How many watched that video from 3 months ago and decided to buy Bitcoin under that influence?


I mean if you run to buy all BTC because of 1 youtube video you probably aren't very smart with business or finances to begin with

Also if you aren't capable to zoom out more than a year you probably aren't very smart either. Criticism of crypto shows me how much people understand traditional markets as well

You can do the exact same thing with tech stocks. Don't run out and buy 100% SHOP because it's the #1 stock in Canada


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> I mean if you run to buy all BTC because of 1 youtube video you probably aren't very smart with business or finances to begin with
> 
> Also if you aren't capable to zoom out more than a year you probably aren't very smart either. Criticism of crypto shows me how much people understand traditional markets as well
> 
> You can do the exact same thing with tech stocks. Don't run out and buy 100% SHOP because it's the #1 stock in Canada


And you believe that the majority of people watching PP videos on YT are that smart?

Or even just the Canadian population?

I'd be curious knowing how much gains the Canadian retail investors while buying crypto from 2020 to this date VS how much losses they had.

And it's not because people are able to zoom out that they've bought low, sold high. Zooming out shows the story in hindsight, while most people actually bought high in euphoria, then sold low in panic.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> And it's not because people are able to zoom out that they've bought low, sold high. Zooming out shows the story in hindsight, while most people actually bought high in euphoria, then sold low in panic.


You mean exactly like traditional markets?

A criticism needs to hold up specifically to what it is criticizing. I didn't watch the whole video but I doubt they said go buy 100% BTC all at once

If you put your life savings in anything at that time all at once it's all down


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> I doubt they said go buy 100% BTC all at once


That's actually the issue. They didn't say "don't do it", they didn't say "this video is not a financial advice", all they did is promoting a story of a very specific winning situation.

Why not make another interview video with someone who bought energy stocks 2 years ago? He would've made even more money than buying BTC. As much as they said that the Canadian dollar buys less housing, they could say that the BTC buys less Energy stocks.

Or maybe a video with someone who bought the recent "dip" at $40k USD because every "indicator" and "expert" were saying that BTC would jump back to $100k USD, though it turns out it's currently at $20k USD.



m3s said:


> You mean exactly like traditional markets?


If you watch around you, the average people gets scared as soon as one of their assets drop -20% and wonder if they should move to something else... typical sell low. How often did Bitcoin drop -20%? Hell, how often did Bitcoin drop -50%, compared to the traditional markets?

Volatility has a cost. Investing $1000/month in GBTC since the lows of January 2019, you end up with fewer money than investing it in SPY, even though GTBC returned 37% CAGR from January 2019 compared to 14% CAGR for SPY.

One could say "don't buy every month, buy only when it's low", but that's market timing and we know it's a losing strategy.

My point is simply that such videos aren't promoting the right thing. He could argue and defend that one should be allowed to buy and sell BTC, I agree. But why making an interview video with a crypto winner? That's as stupid as making a video with a poker player who just won a tournament, promoting how his career as a poker player was the right decision to make.


----------



## m3s

You mean like all the HGTV videos about renovating and flipping houses?

Now we have nearly every soccer mom in Canada speculating on RE investing and everyone thinks it is smart to have million dollar leverage on basic cookie cutter townhomes and spend hundreds of thousands on renovations and property taxes

Now interest rates raise and a lot of these RE "investors" who bought 2 or 3 homes at peak prices instead of 1 will get a lesson on how ALL markets work


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> You mean like all the HGTV videos about renovating and flipping houses?


Well, I'm fair in my opinion and values, so, no, I don't agree with videos promoting luxury housing and renovations, and excess of leveraging and debt, as much as I don't agree with that story promoting BTC.


----------



## sags

Voyageur Digital has filed for bankruptcy.

Other crypto "defi" businesses halt withdrawals.

The contagion continues to spread through cypto.









Crypto brokerage Voyager Digital files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection


Voyager commenced bankruptcy proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of New York on Tuesday.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Voyageur Digital has filed for bankruptcy.
> 
> Other crypto "defi" businesses halt withdrawals.


Voyager isn't DeFi

It's a centralized app which is the opposite of decentralized. There are no DeFi businesses they are protocols that these centralized businesses use. You can get liquidated in DeFi just like in traditional lending

The DeFi protocols themselves are still working as intended


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Voyageur Digital has filed for bankruptcy.
> 
> Other crypto "defi" businesses halt withdrawals.
> 
> The contagion continues to spread through cypto.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Crypto brokerage Voyager Digital files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
> 
> 
> Voyager commenced bankruptcy proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of New York on Tuesday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com


 ... keyword equivalent for crypto-currency is not scam(s) but "meltdown" now ... LMAO.


----------



## sags

Yea........as predicted the crypto world is collapsing.

The defi ponzi schemes are reaching the liquidation stage, leaving millions of gullible people holding the bag.

The miners are shutting down due to high cost of energy and low crypto prices and are selling off their coins.

Their source of lending has dried up, and Wall Street shuns them.

The volume in exchanges has disappeared, and the biggest exchanges are laying off employees.

The number of worthless "dead" coins is rising. Contagion is spreading among the web of intertwined crypto entities.

The transactions in the blockchain mempool waiting for authorization is growing and transactions with low fees can wait hours to be approved.

Fraud investigations are opening all over the world. Regulations are being developed to protect investors.

It is all over but the crying.


----------



## m3s

Yes it's a shame the dot com bubble killed the internet back in 1999

It's also a shame sags didn't short crypto when he predicted the collapse. Instead he bought BTC at like $59k and then sold a day later as soon as it dropped 2%

Imagine if Wayne Gretzky spent his life in the stands just predicting every shot would miss but never daring to take a shot himself.

And then claiming he predicted all the missed shots of players in Lambos from his Kia made Chevy


----------



## TomB16

Buy the dip.


----------



## sags

Gretzky had 894 goals and 1963 assists.

He knew when the smart play was to pass on a shot.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Gretzky had 894 goals and 1963 assists. He knew when to pass on a shot.


Gretzky got on the ice and played. He didn't win every game or score every shot. He understood he wouldn't score the shots he didn't take

You are just in the stands yelling at people playing as if you have the slightest clue what you're talking about. Nobody is coming to interview you for your negative commentary.

If you actually tried to play you'd get absolutely wrecked. It's very different than sitting in the stands blaming the world for your misfortune


----------



## sags

Millions of people who “played” the crypto game just got liquidated, and the contagion is still spreading as it all unravels.

I suspect you are one of them. What are your “insider” developer pals going to do to “fix” the problems and return investor money ?

There is $500 million already found missing from Voyager alone and they just started digging into it.

Lots of people warned that crypto was poison, like Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, but what do they know about investing money.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I suspect you are one of them. What are your “insider” developer pals going to do to “fix” the problems and return investor money ?


As usual you suspect wrong and have no clue what you're talking about.

You think that if one stock is bad it means that all stocks are bad and for some reason have to "return investor money" You have a 5 year old's understanding of trading and markets at best. You didn't understand what inflation was and you don't understand that people can trade.

You basically think all stocks are bad because you read something bad about it on some blogs



sags said:


> Lots of people warned that crypto was poison, like Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, but what do they know about investing money.


A person should at least understand what they are criticizing.

We've already covered the same things over and over around in circles with you over and over. Stop embarrassing yourself

There is a reason everyone has blocked you saggy.


----------



## sags

Voyager and others claimed they were a bank and had deposit insurance, which was a blatant lie.

They deceived the public like common criminals.

Investigators are all over them now.


----------



## sags

If you understood crypto so well why were you pumping it .


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> If you understood crypto so well why were you pumping it .


I wasn't pumping it

Most of the time I'm just pointing out the flaws of your very basic arguments. You repeat the same thing over and over in circles. Most people have already blocked you and message me directly instead

You fail to learn anything. You'd be wise to at least not to show people this over and over


----------



## Numbersman61

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/investors-revenge-m-master-charged-000023582.html


----------



## m3s

Numbersman61 said:


> https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/investors-revenge-m-master-charged-000023582.html


So guy who knew nothing about what he was doing fell for the most obvious and oldest scam in the book. Same scam can be applied to anything

It says "entertainment" right in the link and the top of the page. Nobody who spends 5 minutes thinking would fall for this scam unless they're a boomer


----------



## Tostig

m3s said:


> ...Most people have already blocked you ...


Can't help but notice the irony in which this this the third time you have stated this.


----------



## sags

Welcome to Texas...... bitcoin miners.

See ya......... bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin mining and crypto is a total waste of scarce energy.

_Bitcoin mining heavyweights are pausing operations as the Texas energy grid buckles and state officials warn of rolling blackouts, Bloomberg first reported.

A heatwave in the state is pushing its power grid to a breaking point and raising conservation concerns. Companies including Riot Blockchain Inc., Argo Blockchain Plc and Core Scientific Inc flocked to Texas thanks to its low energy costs that are favorable to bitcoin miners. The companies collectively operate millions of computers in the state to solve complex coding problems which then awards miners with bitcoins.

The cutback follows* peak usage on Friday, where miners hit 78,206 megawatts which shattered the previous record of 77,460 set on July 5*. Companies could potentially see further losses in revenues as computers remained shuttered as Texas sorts out its energy situation.

Miners were already dealing with mounting debt, sitting on roughly $4 billion worth of loans as cryptocurrencies suffer massive losses this year._









Almost all large-scale bitcoin miners in Texas pause activity as state braces for possible rolling blackouts


Bitcoin miners were already under pressure from cratering crypto prices. Now, a heat wave is pushing some of the biggest miners to pause operations.




markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## sags

The crypto collapse has destroyed $2 trillion in wealth, and there is fear that a "black swan" event is about to happen when Mt. Gox releases all their bitcoins to customers who will dump them onto the market. The last time there was a big dump like this.......bitcoin fell to $3,000.

It is projected by many bitcoin experts that the price will fall to $10,000 or below. The slow decline already underway has bitcoin currently at $19,000.

It is a particularly bad time to try to sell bitcoins, because volumes are extremely low and investors are fleeing from the money hungry defi apps.

All the crypto news is very negative. We could be approaching the final days as everyone tries to cash out at the same time.









From $10 billion to zero: How a crypto hedge fund collapsed and dragged many investors down with it


The bankruptcy filing of 3AC, a crypto hedge fund that failed to meet margin calls, set off a domino effect in the market.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Welcome to Texas...... bitcoin miners.
> 
> See ya......... bitcoin miners.
> 
> Bitcoin mining and crypto is a total waste of scarce energy.


That's the whole point of mining in Texas

Texas has to maintain energy load ready for a seasonal peak that is otherwise wasted load. Miners have arrangements to shut down during peak demand and get compensated or reduced rates for using the off peak energy instead. My US energy company reimburses me for using smart thermostats to pre-cool or heat off peak. My work also does the same thing using the backup diesel generators

You have very low understanding of the things you post. Stop embarrassing yourself


----------



## sags

_It all started in February 2021, with a radio advert for Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency promoted by Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla. Intrigued, Roy started Googling, eventually using his credit card to make an *initial investment of €2,500* (£2,200) in a range of cryptocurrencies. The value of Roy’s portfolio climbed to €8,000, then €100,000, *then €525,000*. Roy had entered the market during an adrenalised bull run, meaning an extended period of price growth. A combination of Covid stimulus packages, low interest rates and an unprecedented level of enthusiasm for cryptocurrency among furloughed workers meant the bull was careering out of sight._

And then it all came to an abrupt stop and his life careened out of control. Crypto has caused real damage and real losses to real people

It isn't just a game people are playing. The pumpers and promoters need to be held criminally accountable for their actions.

Hype and hysteria is all that it ever was.









‘They couldn’t even scream any more. They were just sobbing’: the amateur investors ruined by the crypto crash


Fuelled by hype and hysteria, the market in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies went from an obscure niche to a $3tn industry. Then the house of cards collapsed




www.theguardian.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> It isn't just a game people are playing.


"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" Wayne Gretzky

Nobody cares about the heckler in the crowd when he drives home in his fake GM badged Kia SUV from China

Blaming the world because his parents threw out his Wayne Gretzky rookie card


----------



## londoncalling

sags said:


> The crypto collapse has destroyed $2 trillion in wealth, and there is fear that a "black swan" event is about to happen when Mt. Gox releases all their bitcoins to customers who will dump them onto the market. The last time there was a big dump like this.......bitcoin fell to $3,000.
> 
> It is projected by many bitcoin experts that the price will fall to $10,000 or below. The slow decline already underway has bitcoin currently at $19,000.
> 
> It is a particularly bad time to try to sell bitcoins, because volumes are extremely low and investors are fleeing from the money hungry defi apps.
> 
> All the crypto news is very negative. We could be approaching the final days as everyone tries to cash out at the same time.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From $10 billion to zero: How a crypto hedge fund collapsed and dragged many investors down with it
> 
> 
> The bankruptcy filing of 3AC, a crypto hedge fund that failed to meet margin calls, set off a domino effect in the market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com


So those that bought at $3k have made over 6x their initial investment? I am not saying it is likely for many to have bought in initially at 3k but I think a 6 fold gain is pretty good. Even if it goes down to $10k that is still better than a triple bagger. I am not a crypto investor but just thought I should point out that not everyone has lost their shirt with crypto. 

I doubt this is the end of crypto. Definitely the end of some currencies, but likely crypto is too established to not exist in some capacity.


----------



## sags

If someone bought a Bitcoin for 3000 and still hold at 19000 that would mean they didn’t sell as Bitcoin rose all the way up to 68000 and then started falling back down.

If they sold at 68000 and profited …someone else paid 68000 for a Bitcoin now worth 19000.

The Bitcoin exchanges aren’t regulated and the price is continually manipulated by the early adopters who own most of the coins.

Research has shown virtually everyone except the whales is underwater on their Bitcoin purchases.

It is a very elaborate Ponzi scheme.

The promoters and pumpers, including people like Cathie Wood and Michael Saylor focus on one thing to pump it……the future price.

Bitcoin will be worth …..100,000 each, 500,000 each, 1,000,000 each !

It is a classic example of the greater fool theory…..hype and hope.


----------



## sags

Crypto without a specific purpose is worthless.

There could be crypto imbedded into platforms like Meta but they will issue their own crypto. They won’t be letting people use other coins on their platforms. There may be central bank crypto, but the Wild West days are over as it collapses and public adoption fades away.

Walmart adapted blockchain for their own use without the need to buy tokens from people or to pay fees.

The crypto bubble is deflating.


----------



## m3s

londoncalling said:


> So those that bought at $3k have made over 6x their initial investment? I am not saying it is likely for many to have bought in initially at 3k but I think a 6 fold gain is pretty good. Even if it goes down to $10k that is still better than a triple bagger. I am not a crypto investor but just thought I should point out that not everyone has lost their shirt with crypto.


The amount of talent moving from well known traditional finance and web2 tech should be enough to convince most people to take a second look

Today ETH is $1072 USD and the sky is falling because it's down 80% from ATH last year. It's also up +10x from 2020 and once they cut off miners this year will generate significantly more revenue for staking (currently 4%, potentially 10% post mining but I expect that to settle back to 5% as more people stake)

Today ADA is $.42 USD and the sky is falling because it's down 90% from ATH last year. It's also up +20x from 2020 and once the upgrade goes through this month will have all kinds of dapps launching that have been waiting. All the cool stuff happens when the sky is falling. ADA will be able to generate yield from staking and lending at once

Many were saying there would be a dot com style crash. A lot of VC scams had to be flushed out and what survives will be stronger like FANG


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546924519419514880


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> If someone bought a Bitcoin for 3000 and still hold at 19000 that would mean they didn’t sell as Bitcoin rose all the way up to 68000 and then started falling back down.
> 
> If they sold at 68000 and profited …someone else paid 68000 for a Bitcoin now worth 19000.
> 
> The Bitcoin exchanges aren’t regulated and the price is continually manipulated by the early adopters who own most of the coins.
> 
> Research has shown virtually everyone except the whales is underwater on their Bitcoin purchases.
> 
> It is a very elaborate Ponzi scheme.
> 
> The promoters and pumpers, including people like Cathie Wood and Michael Saylor focus on one thing to pump it……the future price.
> 
> Bitcoin will be worth …..100,000 each, 500,000 each, 1,000,000 each !
> 
> *It is a classic example of the greater fool theory…..hype and hope.*


 ... HOWEVER, the "silver-lining" of all of this - a lesson learned or a lesson taught to others!!!!

I wonder if PP is still pushing BTC these days?


----------



## nathan79

Funny sags, you've been saying the same thing for so long now that you've already been proven wrong multiple times. You talk as if everyone bought in the last two years, but you've been saying the same thing since 2013. 

Basically anyone who bought before Dec 2020 is still up (those who bought @ the previous peak in Dec 2017 are even). Bitcoin started in Jan 2009, so that's nearly 12 years that people could have bought and still be up on their investment.


----------



## sags

In theory, if people timed their purchase exactly right.......but in practice, the overall bitcoin market is at the average purchase price and over 40% of bitcoin holders are "underwater" at a $20,000 value. The overall crypto market......including the numerous defi failures reveals that 89% of crypto holders are "underwater". People who bought "alt coins" lost 80-100% of their investment.

The "average" also includes the biggest wallets, such as the Satoshi wallet which holds 1,000,000 bitcoins with a cost basis of $0. Those wallets distort the average purchase to current value ratio for the other 15 million active bitcoins (accounting for 20% of bitcoins lost forever). Without the inclusion of the coins held in those wallets with a $0 cost basis, the aggregative purchase to current value ratio of bitcoins would be very negative.

If anyone can time the market exactly right, there is lots of money to be made in bitcoin trading.

But will bitcoins be worth $30,000 next week or $10,000 ?


----------



## sags

This ‘crypto winter’ is unlike any downturn in the history of digital currencies. Here's why


----------



## sags

The new crypto economy.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547246036523048962


----------



## sags

Musk sells 75% of Tesla's bitcoins.......$936 million worth.

This is the guy who pumped crypto and told his faithful followers he would never sell his bitcoins.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> This is the guy who pumped crypto and told his faithful followers he would never sell his bitcoins.


Tesla already sold some last year. You seem to be making stuff up as usual

Their taxes were structured to sell. I don't think you understand how hedging works. Then again you didn't understand inflation, volume, liquidity or much else

You're lucky the government bailed out your pension so you could buy GM branded SUVs from China


----------



## sags

Tesla took a $460 million loss on their bitcoins.

Musk now calls bitcoins a "sideshow of a sideshow".

Analysts say that without the bitcoin cash and the waning energy credits, Tesla would have lost money in the last quarter.

With market share and price margins both declining, Tesla is experiencing some problems as competition ramps up in the EV market.









Tesla has dumped 75% of its bitcoin holdings a year after touting 'long-term potential'


Tesla CEO Elon Musk spent much of 2021 hyping cryptocurrencies. His company has exited most of its bitcoin holdings amid a dramatic downfall.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## sags

It is going to get interesting when the Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee releases 148,000 bitcoins back to investors.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Analysts say that without the bitcoin cash and the waning energy credits, Tesla would have lost money in the last quarter.
> 
> With market share and price margins both declining, Tesla is experiencing some problems as competition ramps up in the EV market.


If we let GM go bankrupt and put all their deadbeat employees on the street as the market rightly decided, instead of using taxpayer funds to employ Chinese and Koreans to make watered down Kia SUVs with bland styling for boomers

Then Tesla could be much further ahead by now. Tesla has to compete with the oil juggernauts and the boomer politics who line their pockets with oil juggernaut's dirty money so they can destroy your grandchildren's future

Your kids can't even afford to buy a house anymore and you convince them to buy new GMs with horrible resale values. There is no competition in the EV market. Only boomers and GM employees children want to drive GMs


----------



## Gator13

^ You better check your data about what age group is buying Kia's.


----------



## m3s

Gator13 said:


> ^ You better check your data about what age group is buying Kia's.


GM outsources their design to GM Korea and China now. Latest Kia looks far better and you know GM Korea is getting the designers and engineers that Kia didn't want.

"The Trailblazer is* solely designed and engineered by GM Korea and will be manufactured at GM Korea's Bupyeong plant.* It will then roll-out to Chevrolet's global markets, including Korea, as a key player for GM Korea's domestic and export sales."

Any self respecting Korean would try to work for Kia or Hyundai before GM Korea. You'd get better value and design without the bankrupted American overhead

If you want a Korean SUV just buy the Kia


----------



## gardner

Maybe it's not ALL a scam, but there are so many scams the chances even a careful participant in the market is virtually certain to be affected.









Three Charged In First Ever Cryptocurrency Insider Trading Tipping Scheme







www.justice.gov







> Former Coinbase Employee Allegedly Tipped His Brother and Friend Regarding Crypto Assets That Were Going to be Listed on Coinbase Exchanges


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Maybe it's not ALL a scam, but there are so many scams the chances even a careful participant in the market is virtually certain to be affected.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Three Charged In First Ever Cryptocurrency Insider Trading Tipping Scheme
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.justice.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Former Coinbase Employee Allegedly Tipped His Brother and Friend Regarding Crypto Assets That Were Going to be Listed on Coinbase Exchanges


You really think insider trading doesn't happen in traditional markets nowadays?

You can always see the price action happen before things are announced officially. Even I knew most of the coinbase listing back when it mattered. People online figure stuff out for example there was strong evidence TSLA would buy BTC just based on corroborating various publicly known data. Just look at OSINT nowadays in Ukraine - same concept

The internet is very powerful. IMO insider trading is impossible to stop so we should have more transparency instead


----------



## sags

Lettuce hands ?


----------



## MrMatt

gardner said:


> Maybe it's not ALL a scam, but there are so many scams the chances even a careful participant in the market is virtually certain to be affected.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Three Charged In First Ever Cryptocurrency Insider Trading Tipping Scheme
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.justice.gov


That isn't even a crypto scam, it's simple insider trading.


----------



## sags

The publicly traded Coinbase exchange got smoked today.......down 21.08 %, due to a second investigation by the SEC.

The company has lost 84.52 % of it's value since it's IPO.

Cryptocurrencies also suffered big losses.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The company has lost 84.52 % of it's value since it's IPO.


It is value since it is IPO? Or you mean its value since its IPO? Grammar is hard for union workers

I like how you always rush to post losses. Meanwhile everything is up 10x, 100x, 1000x depending how far you zoom out. That's why you're poor and saggy

Insider trading at coinbase is bad but it's ok for Nancy Pelosi cause she's a boomer


----------



## sags

The plot thickens........

Tether is involved in the Celsius bankruptcy due to an $840 million loan and then selling their bitcoin collateral, without paying off the loan.

Anyone who removed assets from Celsius within 90 days of the bankruptcy, may have to return them to bankruptcy trustees.

The bankruptcy lawyers and accountants are now investigating the assets that anchor Tether.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Tether is involved in the Celsius bankruptcy due to an $840 million loan and then selling their bitcoin collateral, without paying off the loan.


Never been a fan of Tether. USDC should flip it soon and is basically a de facto CBDC. They can lock illegal funds already



sags said:


> Anyone who removed assets from Celsius within 90 days of the bankruptcy, may have to return them to bankruptcy trustees.
> 
> The bankruptcy lawyers and accountants are now investigating the assets that anchor Tether.


Good luck with that sags. Anyone who think this must be a boomer without the slightest clue

Maybe all the GM workers should pay their pensions back to GM investors while they're at it


----------



## sags

The loans were all paid back. 

The government got shares in the new company, but unfortunately PM Harper sold them to balance the budget before the 2015 election, but lost anyways.

GM completed all their financial commitments to the hourly pension plan years ago. 

Economists agree the government came out a big winner for the loans with the tax revenues generated since then.

The loans also bailed out the Ontario Pension Guarantee Benefit, to which GM had paid decades worth of premiums. 

The plan would have had to pay the first $1000 to each pensioner, as it did for Nortel and Sears pensioners.

Originally, the governments balked at the loans, but then they were informed about their liabilities under the pension guarantee and did the loans instead.

The Ontario Pension Guarantee Benefit is still around, but GM no longer pays premiums into it and is not a member.

Nobody just handed billions to GM.


----------



## sags

All the cypto crap you kept pumping and promoting as the next best thing, that you claimed was over-collateralized and run by only the smartest and best people, are going bankrupt and being investigated by regulators, and perhaps the police soon. They are all scams and frauds.

I find your judgment somewhat lacking in these matters, given your past posting record.

You either didn't know what you were talking about or were a willing participant and promoter of the schemes.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> You either didn't know what you were talking about or were a willing participant and promoter of the schemes.


You're a sad old man. While you mope around waiting for more government handouts reading mainstream media fake news

Meanwhile ethereum is up 80% in the last 2 weeks. Just keep telling yourself that inflation is good for GICs


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> GM completed all their financial commitments to the hourly pension plan years ago.
> 
> Nobody just handed billions to GM.


Sure sure

I guess that's why GM hired the Koreans to make Trailblazer this time. I might see 1 or 2 Trailblazers for ever 1000 Kia, Hyundai, Subaru, Toyota, Tesla

Why would anyone buy a Koreans made GM when they could buy a Kia?


----------



## Jimmy

sags said:


> The loans were all paid back.
> 
> The government got shares in the new company, but unfortunately PM Harper sold them to balance the budget before the 2015 election, but lost anyways.
> 
> Economists agree the government came out a big winner for the loans with the tax revenues generated since then.
> 
> Nobody just handed billions to GM.


That isn't true unfortunately. 

We lost $3.5 B from the GM and Chrysler bailouts actually. Loans were not repaid in full at all. In fact they were written off as uncollectible in 2018 .
We also lost $800M on the GM stock. 

"On May 14, 2018, the Canadian federal government announced it would fall short of breaking even from the bailouts of Chrysler Group LLC and General Motors Co. by $3.5 billion.[19] On June 26, 2018, the remaining undisclosed loan amount was written off.[20] The Fraser Institute estimates the total cost to taxpayers at $3.7 billion that was never repaid.[20]


----------



## sags

_The government's stake in the automaker was worth more than $3.3 billion Monday, based on a US$36.66 price at the close and an exchange rate of $1.2473. But it's unclear how much the sale will benefit Ottawa's bottom line.

*The sell-off comes as the Conservative government searches for ways to live up to its election-year promise to balance its books in 2015-16*, a long-running pledge that appeared at risk of remaining unfulfilled amid the negative economic impacts of the global oil slump._





__





Loading…






www.cbc.ca


----------



## m3s

Here I believed sags for once

I think sags just tells himself lies until he believes they're true. Ironic that he's obsessed with bankrupt companies now. Sears, Nortel and GM pensioners are lucky to have anything

We should have at least made part of the deal to not offshore Trailblazers in Korea and China


----------



## sags

_While U.S. Treasury’s final loss on the bailout is estimated at $13.7 billion including $11.8 billion related to its investment in GM, *it avoided the loss of $105.3 billion in unemployment benefit payments and the loss of personal and social insurance tax collections, according to CAR.*

In the GM-only scenario, *the lost tax collections would have totaled $39.4 billion*, according to CAR.

CAR said the study did not take into account the benefits of preserving the pensions of almost 600,000 GM and Chrysler retirees as well as industry research and development jobs. It also did not account for the psychological impact the collapse of GM and Chrysler would have had on the U.S. industrial base._









Auto bailout saved 1.5 million U.S. jobs -study


The federal bailout of General Motors Co, Chrysler and parts suppliers in 2009 saved 1.5 million U.S. jobs and preserved $105.3 billion in personal and social insurance tax collections, according to a study released on Monday.




www.reuters.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Auto bailout saved 1.5 million U.S. jobs -study
> 
> 
> The federal bailout of General Motors Co, Chrysler and parts suppliers in 2009 saved 1.5 million U.S. jobs and preserved $105.3 billion in personal and social insurance tax collections, according to a study released on Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Should have saved Nortel as tech is critical. Now we get tech from Asia with Chinese spyware built in

Asians and Europeans always made better vehicles anyways. Saving GM was pointless as they just make the vehicles in Korea anyways

Failed companies should just fail and employees should take responsibility for staying on that sinking ship


----------



## sags

The auto loans worked out very well for the governments, which are still happily raking in annual tax revenues 14 years later.

GM is a global auto manufacturer. They are already producing the fastest selling EV vehicle in China.

The Trailblazer was a vehicle developed in South Korea for that market before it was redesigned and brought to the US market.

The popular Cruze vehicle started out in Australia market before coming to North America. It was manufactured in Mexico.

The new bill introduced by the Democrats, will offer a $7500 credit for EV vehicles made within the NAFTA zone.

That is a change from the Trump version of the bill, and Canadian production in Ontario will benefit greatly from the change.

The auto supply chains are very complicated and intertwined globally.

Parts and sub-assemblies can cross the US/Canada border 30 times before the final vehicle is built.

Canada has it's hands full finding enough workers for all the assembly plants, including the many skilled trades that are required.

Electronics, engineers, robotic technicians, millwrights, plumbers, electricians, heavy equipment mechanics, accountants, lawyers, nurses, ...etc.etc.

Assembly plants are big places with many thousands of workers.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Canada has it's hands full finding enough workers for all the assembly plants, including the many skilled trades that are required.


Why does Canada have it is hand full? You mean its?

Reality is the Asians just make better vehicles for the price. Same reason the iPhone isn't made in Canada

Bailing out GM was a lost cause besides buying votes


----------



## sags

Hudson is Bay ?.....sure.


----------



## Jimmy

sags said:


> _While U.S. Treasury’s final loss on the bailout is estimated at $13.7 billion including $11.8 billion related to its investment in GM, *it avoided the loss of $105.3 billion in unemployment benefit payments and the loss of personal and social insurance tax collections, according to CAR.*
> 
> In the GM-only scenario, *the lost tax collections would have totaled $39.4 billion*, according to CAR.
> 
> CAR said the study did not take into account the benefits of preserving the pensions of almost 600,000 GM and Chrysler retirees as well as industry research and development jobs. It also did not account for the psychological impact the collapse of GM and Chrysler would have had on the U.S. industrial base._
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Auto bailout saved 1.5 million U.S. jobs -study
> 
> 
> The federal bailout of General Motors Co, Chrysler and parts suppliers in 2009 saved 1.5 million U.S. jobs and preserved $105.3 billion in personal and social insurance tax collections, according to a study released on Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Those arent' 'savings' though. The other car companies would just take over GM's production and take on the jobs lost at GM. You need 14M cars. It doesn't matter which companies provide them. Toyota and Honda make better cars anyway per Consumer reports reliability records. GMs were always substandard at best.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Hudson is Bay ?.....sure.


It's is a contraction of it is or it has

Its is the proper possessive form of it


----------



## gardner

This is a fun one:








Solana DeFi Protocol Nirvana Drained of Liquidity After Flash Loan Exploit


The price of the protocol’s ANA token fell almost 80% following the attack.




www.coindesk.com





Someone exploited a bug in their "smart contract" to clean out Nirvana Finance. I expect they will have some unhappy counterparties in the coming days.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Someone exploited a bug in their "smart contract" to clean out Nirvana Finance. I expect they will have some unhappy counterparties in the coming days.


Solana is pretty much a joke financially

They have really smart tech (Qualcomm engineers) but crap as far as understanding decentralization or financial security. They constantly "restart" and "stop" the solana blockchain which wouldn't be possible if it was decentralized. They also "voted" to update the smart contract to take control of a whales assets.

Thinking that all crypto is the same is like thinking all stocks are the same. Most stock value is held to very few while there's a long tail of junk


----------



## sags

gardner said:


> This is a fun one:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Solana DeFi Protocol Nirvana Drained of Liquidity After Flash Loan Exploit
> 
> 
> The price of the protocol’s ANA token fell almost 80% following the attack.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.coindesk.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Someone exploited a bug in their "smart contract" to clean out Nirvana Finance. I expect they will have some unhappy counterparties in the coming days.


Crypto is amateur hour on many levels. It is thoroughly saturated with problems caused by the financial inexperience of the developers.

As long as crypto operates within their own contained universe......it has no impact on anyone but speculators who lost their money in them.

But any concept that would involve FDIC insurance or IPO to a public company, has broader implications for the financial system.

Publicly traded Coinbase exchange is in trouble as crypto trading dries up and people remove their crypto from online exchanges for fear of becoming "unsecured creditors" overnight. They have laid off many employees due to the lack of volume and rumors are circulating they may be lurching forward into bankruptcy.

Other crypto exchanges are suffering similar liquidity drains and low trading volumes, and they are also laying off employees.


----------



## sags

Celsius and Voyager owners seem to believe they can convince US regulators that security rules don't apply to them.

The SEC isn't interested in any of those discussions, and will proceed with investigations and legal action.

Crypto reminds me of the anti-income tax crowd, who show up in court claiming the IRS can't collect taxes.


----------



## gardner

m3s said:


> Solana is pretty much a joke financially


Certainly they are now.

What makes these smart contract booboos fun is the fact that smart contracts are often central to the trustless model of defi. You're meant to not have to trust the counterparty in the transaction much less "regulations" or government "oversight" or any of the meddling of the conventional financial system. The transactions do what they do and the smart contract will execute and enforce itself.

Now SolanaNirvana , or whoever, has written a contract that says, in some small clause, "you can borrow gold bars off us and then pay us back in rotting fish." Now someone's gone ahead and entered into that very contract and cleaned them out. Now they are using language like "recover the stolen funds" that seem to undercut their faith in their own contract and maybe defi in general. Perhaps they would be planning to appeal to the conventional financial, or at least legal, system for recourse.

If it had been a conventional contract, I would think that contract law would be against them. The exploiter of the contract didn't write it -- or at least is not its legal author -- and SolanaNirvana held all the cards. Ambiguity or unintended results would generally not be interpreted in SolanaNirvana 's favour and they could well have been stuck with the fish.

If it was an insider, they might have legal recourse -- say if the coder who wrote the smart contract then went in and exploited a loophole they'd intentionally put in. All conventional fi though.

Lucky thing it's all decentralized and trustless, or else there could have been some trouble.

edit: Nirvana not Solana


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Certainly they are now.
> 
> What makes these smart contract booboos fun is the fact that smart contracts are often central to the trustless model of defi. You're meant to not have to trust the counterparty in the transaction much less "regulations" or government "oversight" or any of the meddling of the conventional financial system. The transactions do what they do and the smart contract will execute and enforce itself.
> 
> edit: Nirvana not Solana


They have geewhiz engineers from Qualcomm (Ukrainian immigrant also) and VC funding but a lot of blind spots as far as decentralization and finance.

The joke about Solana is that it gets turned off all the time. A true decentralized blockchain can't be shut down by central admins. Their smart contracts always seem to be "upgradeable" which defeats the purpose. If someone can change the contract or stop the blockchain than it is useless for anything financial. Maybe it's good for trading jpgs fast and cheap

Haskell, purely functional programming language, is far better for financial contracts. When an exploit was found in Cardano DeFi there was no way for the admins to simple "patch" or "upgrade" the exploit. This is by design because if they could then they could also. Cardano has spent a lot of time researching - fast and cheap is not even desired because you bloat the chain

Smart contract risk is a thing. Battle tested smart contracts with more value locked become more trustworthy but the reward is also diluted. Same as any other market.


----------



## james4beach

Bloomberg article: The Crypto Collapse Has Flooded the Market With Rolex and Patek

_The collapse in cryptocurrencies is easing supply of the most sought after watches on the second-hand market, depressing prices for hard-to get-Patek Philippe and Rolex models._

_The supply of trophy watches such as the Rolex Daytona or Patek Nautilus 5711A “is now much larger,” online-watch trading platform Chrono24 said in an emailed statement. _

_The recent swoon in cryptocurrency valuations “has directly impacted pricing of luxury watches from brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe,” said the company, which is based in Karlsruhe, Germany, and has more than half a million watches listed for sale on its website._


----------



## m3s

james4beach said:


> Bloomberg article: The Crypto Collapse Has Flooded the Market With Rolex and Patek
> 
> _The collapse in cryptocurrencies is easing supply of the most sought after watches on the second-hand market, depressing prices for hard-to get-Patek Philippe and Rolex models._
> 
> _The supply of trophy watches such as the Rolex Daytona or Patek Nautilus 5711A “is now much larger,” online-watch trading platform Chrono24 said in an emailed statement. _
> 
> _The recent swoon in cryptocurrency valuations “has directly impacted pricing of luxury watches from brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe,” said the company, which is based in Karlsruhe, Germany, and has more than half a million watches listed for sale on its website._


You realize this is clickbait for desperate housewives and boomers

The supply for literally everything has eased even target and walmart are overstocked. Some small companies I follow couldn't meet demand 2 years ago increased manufacturing only to get hit with less demand this year and have to sell it at discount. This is what happens when interest rates rise.. liquidity and demand dry up. It's not only logical but the exact intent.. killing demand is how you reduce inflation. How else do you get prices to stop climbing?

To tie rolexes to crypto doesn't even make sense. They'd rather buy a smart watch or another jpg than a gaudy boomer status symbol. There's one guy in crypto who always wears things like that and he's not considered popular at all - he is ridiculed for it. The popular ones wear pajamas to conferences or dirty tractor brand hats or something completely opposite of wealth because of how the industry is viewed. Status in crypto is digital not golden watches

Think critically for a second @james4beach when you read these entertainment articles for mindless boomers who grew up without an internet full of alternate information sources.


----------



## Tostig

Since this thread started, BTC (Cad) is down 39.9% but up 20% in the past month.

There has been 1449 posts arguing between the pro-cryptos and the anti-cryptos. Has any of the pro-cryptos bought on the way down, dollar-cost averaged or started implementing when they'll jump back in?

(FYI, I did with the broad market ETFs XIU, VFV and ZQQ.)


----------



## m3s

Tostig said:


> Since this thread started, BTC (Cad) is down 39.9% but up 20% in the past month.
> 
> There has been 1449 posts arguing between the pro-cryptos and the anti-cryptos. Hasany of the pro-cryptos bought on the way down, dollar-cost averaged or started implementing when they'll jump back in?
> 
> (FYI, I did with the broad market ETFs XIU, VFV and ZQQ.)


This thread started 13 Dec 2020 when BTC was bouncing off the $17k USD all time high resistance from the previous cycle.. which it first broke through on 16 Dec 2020 a few days after this thread started

Certainly not down 39.9% by any imagination in USD and I don't care enough about CAD to check. A few months before this thread started BTC was below $10k USD and it's now +$23k USD. I'm up more than 10x what I bought last cycle and even what I bought during the 2020 covid crash but of course that wouldn't fit the clickbait boomer narrative

I was selling q4 last year and dumped a lot right before end year for tax reasons. Been averaging back in since that big drop q3 this year. Bottom of this logarithmic trend is historically a good time to average in as a general guide


----------



## sags

SEC announces fraud charges against 11 people involved in a crypto defi Ponzi scheme of $300 million.

Interesting 2 of the changes are against people who were pumping the scheme on social media.

Crpto pumpers beware. The SEC is monitoring social media for criminal activity.

The scammers use all the crypto techno babble to lure the suckers in…defi….smart contracts…decentralized….blockchain… blah,blah,blah.

SEC charges 11 people in alleged $300 million crypto Ponzi scheme


----------



## sags

_In spite of ourselves
We'll end up a'sittin' on a rainbow
Against all odds
Honey, we're the big door prize
We're gonna spite our noses
Right off of our faces
There won't be nothin' but big old hearts
Dancin' in our eyes._


----------



## sags

The SEC has decided that crypto tokens are a security and fall under it's jurisdiction, so they are ramping up investigations and charges of illegal and fraudulent trading of securities.

Crypto promoters may disagree with the "security" designation because it requires licensing and allows oversight by the SEC, but it appears the SEC is moving forward regardless. The wild west days of crypto appear to be over.

People who have lost their entire savings in these ponzi schemes are writing to regulators and bankruptcy lawyers pleading to get their money back, but it appears they will have to file the proper documentation and line up as creditors.....likely unsecured creditors who could lose everything.

The regulators should have acted much sooner to protect investors from this cauldron of scammers and criminals.

Hopefully, some of them will be awarded the "Bernie Madoff" 150 year prison sentence.

He defrauded 37,000 investors. These crypto scammers have defrauded millions of investors.


----------



## m3s

sags you realize the SEC has been "charging" crypto as securities for many years and has failed to make any progress. The ripple lawsuit could still go on for years

Your grammar and intelligence has been demonstrated so many times that I don't even need to read your posts. You're a waste of time which is why so many block you

The irony is that by your loose definition of a ponzi scheme you worked for one your entire life. Therefore your pension is a fraud by your own poor logic


----------



## sags

Ripple is running out of time and delay tactics.

_In the coming four days, we will get a ruling on the parties’ motions to seal the expert challenges. After that, the unsealed portion of the challenges will be “docketed” as per Filan. Then, on 9 August, Ripple will reply to the SEC’s objection to Judge Netburn’s AC privilege ruling. The SEC is then supposed to submit a reply brief after a week by 16 August. The date for filing statements on undisputed facts and motion for summary judgment stands to be 13 September 2022. The last date to file oppositions for the motions for summary judgment and responses is by 18 October 2022. _

The SEC can only issue "civil complaints" but often refer matters to the criminal courts.


----------



## m3s

sags comes from the industry that has lobbied and manipulated the entire continent

Hasn't got a clue how the real world works. And GM still makes inferior vehicles than Korea.

GM is a scam on the government handouts just like Bombardier


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> _In spite of ourselves
> We'll end up a'sittin' on a rainbow
> Against all odds
> Honey, we're the big door prize
> We're gonna spite our noses
> Right off of our faces
> There won't be nothin' but big old hearts
> Dancin' in our eyes._


 ... the cryto-belly-ups' tsunamis are coming!!!! Sit back and enjoy the show. 

Here's another one ... isn't Robinhoods supposed to be one of those darling "hi-tech start-up brokerage" firm? Is it insured with CIPF (or what's that Canadian entity that insures rogue brokerages)? 

Robinhood’s crypto arm fined $30-million by New York State’s financial regulator


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> sags you realize the SEC has been "charging" crypto as securities for many years and has failed to make any progress. The ripple lawsuit could still go on for years
> 
> Your grammar and intelligence has been demonstrated so many times that I don't even need to read your posts. You're a waste of time which is why so many block you


 ... but the surprising(?) thing you haven't blocked him on wasting "your" time with his sub-grammar and human intelligence. Strange, isn't it?



> The irony is that by your loose definition of a ponzi scheme you worked for one your entire life. Therefore your pension is a fraud by your own poor logic


 ... your logic of the pension working like a ponzi-scheme is not entirely that off. So you might want to re-visit this critical post of yours when it's time for you to "retire" (or may you won't) - ie. will your private pension or CPP be around then. Say and pray.


----------



## sags

Crypto dudes think they invented the proverbial money tree.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Crypto dudes think they invented the proverbial money tree.


 ...  the gift that keeps on giving, scamming even it's made up of fakes. 

I think buying a can of pure O2 (even it's more than US$50) and sucking from it in the midst of some super-polluted metropolis would have more worth to it.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Crypto dudes think they invented the proverbial money tree.


saggy brains think the government is their money tree


----------



## sags

Bad days for cypto.......more hacks, thefts, losses, and Michael Saylor steps down as CEO of Microstrategy after a $918 million loss in their bitcoin holdings.

_The announcement comes as the company announces its second quarter earnings, in which its total revenues dropped by 2.6% compared to a year ago. The company also reported an impairment charge of $918 million on the value of its digital assets, presumably primarily bitcoin. _

I correctly predicted the board of Microstrategy would give Saylor the boot, for his foray into bitcoins.









It has been a miserable August for crypto — and it's only the third day of the month


It's been a rough week for crypto, from cross-chain bridge hacks draining hundreds of millions of dollars to the SEC coming after crypto Ponzi schemes.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I correctly predicted the board of Microstrategy would give Saylor the boot, for his foray into bitcoins.


You should try to put some money behind your predictions then. If you tried to short MSTR you'd probably get rekt

You predict something bs 100 times a day just because you get one right doesn't mean anything. You predicted inflation was transitory and good for GICs. Low content as usual

So put some money behind your predictions and let's see. Gotta love the lifelong GM union guy cheering on bankruptcies too


----------



## sags

Shorting ?….. not when the idiots on WSB can move in and push the stock up 21,400 % like they are already doing to AMTD stock.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Shorting ?….. not when the idiots on WSB can move in and push the stock up 21,400 % like they are already doing to AMTD stock.


People who like crypto made money shorting crypto.

That would be like you shorting GM at the right time if you knew it would crash. Genius if you can pull it off but it's usually people who actually like and know the asset and what they're doing. Shorting something just because you read clickbait FUD and you'll get rekt. Nobody cares if a broken clock is right a few times a day

Blackrock is making a deal with coinbase for their institutional clients. Smart money


----------



## gardner

Hot on the tail of the Solana exploit tied to Slope wallet, that cleaned users out by $6M, we now have:









Master of Anons: How a Crypto Developer Faked a DeFi Ecosystem


The Macalinao brothers used a web of bogus identities to create the illusion of a dev community, juicing value on the Saber protocol and Solana blockchain. Now they're moving to Aptos.




www.coindesk.com







> The Macalinao brothers used a web of bogus identities to create the illusion of a dev community, juicing value on the Saber protocol and Solana blockchain.


Solana is looking pretty borked now.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Solana is looking pretty borked now.


It looked broken from the very start

If the admins can shut it down 10 times it's broken. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me

It's a centralized database with a sliver of initial public sale. They pay influencers to FUD cardano


----------



## gardner

ZB.com, which bills itself as “the world’s most secure digital asset exchange” lost approximately $4.8 million from its hot wallets on Wednesday. ZB announced that they were suspending deposit and withdrawal services due to "sudden failure of some core applications".









Crypto Exchange ZB.com Reportedly Loses $4.8 Million To Hackers - Here's What We Know | Bitcoinist.com


Crypto exchanges have become popular for enabling consumers to purchase, sell, swap, and store digital assets.




bitcoinist.com


----------



## sags

Nomad got $190 million drained from their accounts, and are now telling the hackers they can keep 10% if they give the money back.



https://gizmodo.com/nomad-bridge-hack-10-bounty-returning-stolen-crypto-190-1849376129


----------



## m3s

Central exchange and bridges (which are also central focal points) have always been know weak spots

Don't store any value on central exchanges or bridges. Same reason I wouldn't buy a vehicle from a failed company like GM. Fool me once shame on you.

Hackers will often take any bounty reward though because the funds are easily traced and locked/backlisted. Even mixed funds get traced it's just more work to trace.

Explaining this to boomers would be like explaining the internet to pre-boomers


----------



## sags

The hacks are from individual wallets, so centralization doesn't appear to be the issue.

The hack is still ongoing and they have no idea how the hackers are able to use private keys to unlock the wallets and steal the funds.

It looks like the hackers got access to all the private keys from some crypto platform somewhere and can unlock the wallets at will.

Decentralization is a myth, when exchanges are needed to facilitate buying, selling, and trading tokens.

Without the exchanges exchanging fiat for crypto, the crypto tokens would have no perceived value.


----------



## sags

How much has Tesla received from the other automakers and the government in EV carbon credits and rebates ?

Tesla would have been long gone without the government "bailouts".









Elon Musk hates government subsidies. His companies love them.


A Grid analysis of Musk’s companies shows more than $7 billion in government contracts alone.




www.grid.news


----------



## gardner

sags said:


> Decentralization is a myth, when exchanges are needed to facilitate buying, selling, and trading tokens..


Sort of. De-Fi keeners are generally quick to point out that most types of transactions can operate peer-to-peer. You don't really need any central exchange for you and m3s to swap diss-coins for mock-coins. Keeners would point out that most exchanges exist only as a convenience, not a necessity, for most transactions and that this level of convenience might one day be embodied in a phone-app or something similar, that allows you to act as a stand-alone agent in the De-Fi world, not beholden to any exchange or financial entity.

Personally, I believe that the whole web3 premise, including De-Fi is a fantasy, but as m3s will likely point out, I am old, and therefore wrong.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Sort of. De-Fi keeners are generally quick to point out that most types of transactions can operate peer-to-peer. You don't really need any central exchange for you and m3s to swap diss-coins for mock-coins. Keeners would point out that most exchanges exist only as a convenience, not a necessity, for most transactions and that this level of convenience might one day be embodied in a phone-app or something similar, that allows you to act as a stand-alone agent in the De-Fi world, not beholden to any exchange or financial entity.
> 
> Personally, I believe that the whole web3 premise, including De-Fi is a fantasy, but as m3s will likely point out, I am old, and therefore wrong.


CEX is required to onboard and offboard from fiat. Kind of like a scanner or fax can digitize the offline paper world I suppose. Eventually you only use scanner/fax when dealing with ancient offline people

Imagine criticizing and judging the internet before you ever used it. It would all sound very confusing and scary with all the clickbait scams in the news everyday. That's why my grandma and grandpa never touched the internet in their lives

So yes it is because you are old. Younger people will eventually learn to use it just like we had to learn to navigate the internet. It's impossible to understand the internet if you live offline and judge it based on news that sells outrage and emotion

Lots of DeFi progress coming in the near future. We are still in dial up age. Boomers need not concern themselves as they will be in the afterlife like my grandparents before they need to


----------



## sags

A more apt comparison would be bank accounts where the bank says they were hacked and your money is gone.

They have no idea who took it or where it is, and there is no insurance coverage for the loss.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> A more apt comparison would be bank accounts where the bank says they were hacked and your money is gone,
> 
> They have no idea who took it or where it is, and there is no insurance coverage for the loss.


Except it's all public so they do

You're honestly the slowest learning person I've come across on the interest in 10 years. Even the slowest people I know were able to get themselves to a real job interview at least once in their life

Ask yourself why most people have you blocked. You consistently provide no content or value. You should read more and type less saggy brain


----------



## Tostig

Arguing with a fool proves there are two.


----------



## m3s

Tostig said:


> Arguing with a fool proves there are two.


Like I've said before someone has to call out this moron

I've received many direct messages agreeing with me and thanking me for information. saggy is just too dense to realize that everyone else has blocked him and nobody is getting anything useful from his posts. There are many socialist echo chambers for him to go wallow in despair of his misfortunes in life but there is no sympathy left here

Who spends 10 years on an investment forum repeating that the government should just pay for everything


----------



## kcowan

m3s said:


> Eventually you only use scanner/fax when dealing with ancient offline people.


and the medical system in BC!


----------



## m3s

kcowan said:


> and the medical system in BC!


Yes US medical system has been digital and encrypted for me

Then I have to scan it back to Canada and so they can print it out to rescan until nobody can read it

Impossible to keep it secure as well


----------



## sags

More problems for crypto.....









Galaxy Digital loses $554 million, Celsius won't rehire CFO, and U.S. bans Tornado Cash: CNBC Crypto World


CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what's ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today's show, Ari Redbord of TRM Labs...




www.cnbc.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> More problems for crypto.....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Galaxy Digital loses $554 million, Celsius won't rehire CFO, and U.S. bans Tornado Cash: CNBC Crypto World
> 
> 
> CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what's ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today's show, Ari Redbord of TRM Labs...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com


That's not a problem for crypto

Galaxy Digital was a boomer VC that most dislike, Celsius is a bankrupt centralized business just like GM and Tornado Cash was a known problem

CNBC clickbait for boomers makes the brain saggy


----------



## gardner

Market conditions cited in crypto lending firm Hodlnaut's trading halt



https://www.hodlnaut.com/press/hodlnaut-message-to-our-users





> we regret to inform you that we will be halting withdrawals, token swaps and deposits with immediate effect. We have reached this difficult decision due to recent market conditions


I wonder what's going wrong for them? Where they a lending counterparty in one of the other heists?


----------



## Beaver101

Looks like the title of this thread needs "updating" soon on something more appropriate ... as it heads for a total collapse.

Let's start the time-line of this thread: 

Started: December.13, 2020:
Ends: 2022 ... August, September, October, November or December?


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Market conditions cited in crypto lending firm Hodlnaut's trading halt
> 
> I wonder what's going wrong for them? Where they a lending counterparty in one of the other heists?


These are centralized lending platforms. Some refer to them as "DeFi mullets - fintech business in the front and defi in the back"

The decentralized lending platforms based on code have kept working fine throughout market conditions if they were sufficiently collateralized. There's always risk of liquidation in lending markets. That's just how it works. Not everyone has the capacity here to grasp that there are many things going on

One thing is certain you don't want to be on a centralized platform during tough market condition. I moved anything on-chain in the spring. I have about $3 USD locked on celsius. There were many warning signs for those paying attention.

Regulation will be good. Reality is not everyone is technical enough to use DeFi directly so these DeFi mullets will exist as a service


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> Looks like the title of this thread needs "updating" soon on something more appropriate ... as it heads for a total collapse.


ok boomer

It's not like that hasn't been predicted by miserably old sods for a decade now 😂 

$20k BTC is far from a total collapse and still on a upwards trend


----------



## m3s

US Treasury and Circle have been freezing assets that interacted with Tornado Cash

Now there's a bunch of transactions from Tornado Cash going into known/doxxed celebrity wallets

US wants to police the world good luck to em. It's gonna cost more than it's worth


----------



## sags

The US has long arms and willing partners.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The US has long arms and willing partners.


So if somebody puts weeds in your yard

US says they tracked by satellite illegal substance according to US law being transported to saggymans yard. Does it really matter when weed is legal in Canada and you didn't even put it there yourself? Just because you don't like something doesn't mean it makes legal sense in all countries and that the US is the world police

saggy critical thinking is soggy as usual


----------



## sags

Talk to Marc Emery.

He got deported to the U S for mailing seeds to the US.

They convicted him and sent him to prison.


----------



## sags

Nobody is interested in protecting criminals but other criminals.


----------



## sags

Did you miss the news the US killed Bin Ladens buddy in Afghanistan ?

The US are the world police when they want to be.


----------



## m3s

The more you talk the lower we see your intelligence really is

Saggy be saggin more the older he gets


----------



## kcowan

How can I block all posts that have sags or saggy in them?


----------



## MrMatt

kcowan said:


> How can I block all posts that have sags or saggy in them?


Click on the username and ignore.
I've found it more pleasant. Every now and then I unignore and quickly remember why I did it in the first place.

Though I think it's a bit too passive aggressive to list the people on my ignore list.


----------



## Retired Peasant

kcowan said:


> How can I block all posts that have sags or saggy in them?


Unfortunately, you can't. You can block users only. You can't block threads or posts based on content.


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> ok boomer
> 
> It's not like that hasn't been predicted by miserably old sods for a decade now 😂
> 
> $20k BTC is far from a total collapse and still on a upwards trend


 ... if the ilks like you say so. It can go up as high as the sky for all I care ... I ain't holding them and raking them millions/billions in ... LMAO.

Simple question for you m3s, do you sleep well at night knowing what's the eventual outcome is for the suckers who believe in your crypto-craps?


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> The more you talk the lower we see your intelligence really is
> 
> Saggy be saggin more the older he gets


 ... sags, since m3s takes so much pleasure in calling you names and constantly so (like the little-balled bully(s) at school), it's only fair that you should be made aware that "m3s " stands for his previous moniker of "mode3sour". Yes, that's includes the word "SOUR" which tells you how much positivity he has.


----------



## gardner

Busy day today in crypto meltdown land:

Blur Finance rug pulls for over $600,000 -- IE: it WAS exactly a scam








Over $600K Vanishes From DeFi Project Blur Finance; Developers Disappear


The project's Twitter feed and Discord channel have been deleted.




www.coindesk.com





And some more random failures that might be scams, or just failing businesses:

Hotbit crypto exchange suspends trading due to criminal investigation


https://hotbit.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/8074249353495-Announcement-on-the-Suspension-of-Hotbit-Website-Service


cryptocurrency exchange CoinFLEX announced they have filed for restructuring








CoinFlex Crypto Exchange Files for Restructuring in Seychelles


Cryptocurrency exchange CoinFlex said it has filed for restructuring in a Seychelles court, as it seeks to resolve a shortfall due to a counterparty failing to make a margin call.




www.bloomberg.com


----------



## sags

Beaver101 said:


> ... sags, since m3s takes so much pleasure in calling you names and constantly so (like the little-balled bully(s) at school), it's only fair that you should be made aware that "m3s " stands for his previous moniker of "mode3sour". Yes, that's includes the word "SOUR" which tells you how much positivity he has.


Ah.....one of those who keeps changing their online IDs.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Ah.....one of those who keeps changing their online IDs.


I like sags for an old man

I might change to it in 4 or 5 decades


----------



## sags

In a repeating story........Coinflex "lent" $84 million to one investor without any collateral. The investor was Roger Ver, a well known Bitcoin scammer for years.

This same story has happened at other exchanges, and it appears a convenient story to feed the gullible public that there is one bad guy who messed everything up and sorry.........your money is gone and there is nothing we can do now.

It looks like a successful scam that worked before and many are trying it now. It is too funny they are already talking about their "new" shareholders when they get up and running again.

Sure.........let's all pretend that nothing is wrong and you just keep the money and start another scam.


----------



## MrMatt

Stock investing could be a total scam.

I heard that some companies don't disclose full financials. 
Most only disclose basic summaries that don't go into full detail of what is actually going on.

In some cases this is just efficiency or laziness, sometimes it is actually to conceal criminal acts.
Some executives have gone to jail for this.

I think that means some stocks are scams.

Now realistically does a few scams mean the whole industry is a scam? I don't think so, for stocks of crypto.


----------



## gardner

Scam?

crypto lending platform BlueBenx suddenly shut its doors after announcing they had suffered an "extremely aggressive" hack of 160 million BRL (US$32 million).









BlueBenx fires employees, halts funds withdrawal citing $32M hack


BlueBenx’s lawyer, Assuramaya Kuthumi, revealed that the attack resulted in the loss of $32 million, which many investors found hard to believe




cointelegraph.com


----------



## sags

I can't believe how stupid people are to hand their money over to some sketchy company in Brazil promising 66% interest on the money.

If the company founders could earn 66% interest, they wouldn't need any investor money.


----------



## MrMatt

gardner said:


> Scam?
> 
> crypto lending platform BlueBenx suddenly shut its doors after announcing they had suffered an "extremely aggressive" hack of 160 million BRL (US$32 million).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BlueBenx fires employees, halts funds withdrawal citing $32M hack
> 
> 
> BlueBenx’s lawyer, Assuramaya Kuthumi, revealed that the attack resulted in the loss of $32 million, which many investors found hard to believe
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cointelegraph.com


The exceptionally poor security is just astonishing.
But it's really not surprising.

This is why software Engineering is different than "coding".


----------



## m3s

Same thing happened when the internet was new

In the late '90s I was making basic websites for businesses in high school and met a young guy who was running his own web hosting business and trying many different things. So few people understood the internet it was crazy time

He ended up making national news for online credit card fraud selling PS2s. We were both trying various online retail things at the time and this is what made me decide to join the government instead of following my entrepreneurial spirit

Now I'm getting back into the entrepreneurial world and it feels exactly like those early internet days. There are endless opportunities to make money in crypto so I think the temptation is there for young people with less experience

Having known that guy personally I think that's what happened to him but he never really recovered from it. He went on to scam people in many ways for years using different names across Canada before the RCMP caught him

amazon took decades to be successful whereas these scammers become wealthy overnight. People need to protect themselves because there will always be scammers

It doesn't matter what the industry is


----------



## sags

Well......this doesn't look good. Guess I best load up on ATOM and XMR.......whatever they are.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Well......this doesn't look good. Guess I best load up on ATOM and XMR.......whatever they are.
> 
> View attachment 23557


Why would you do that?

This is pretty standard for crypto and even the nadaq to be correlated. The entire market is highly correlated in many ways not just crypto

Stay in your lane saggy ol man you're not a trader


----------



## gardner

Here's a fun DeFi one: Compound Finance released an update that caused all transactions for ETH borrowers and lenders to revert, effectively freezing the entire cETH market. Reverting the bug requires a 7 day new proposal to pass voting. Meanwhile users with positions they can't access will need to add collateral or repay loans carefully in order to avoid being liquidated.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564695152626655234
Scam? likely not. Just an honest mistake that could cost believers a lot of money.


----------



## sags

Who still trusts crypto after all the scams ?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Who still trusts crypto after all the scams ?


Who still trusts GM after they went bankrupt to pay platinum protection for SUVs made in China?

Imagine working for GM for 40 years and they rugpull your pension. That's a scam! What would happen if the government didn't bail them out?

A new protocol having a logic error is one thing. Putting all your eggs with a company too big to fail that goes bankrupt is another


----------



## sags

Bad comparison.

A pension plan is held separate from the company and is regulated.

Worse case scenario was collecting a 65% pension with the PBGF paying the other 35% for life. GM had contributed premiums to the PBGF for decades exactly for this purpose.

The government loans saved the PBGF, not the retirees and members who would receive 100% of their pension in any event.

My brother receives his full pension from a mix of GM, BRK, and General Dynamics.

Pension liabilities were conditions on the sales of GM companies to other corporations.

GM went to great lengths to protect their employees, in pensions, buyout options, benefits, and transfer rights to other locations, unlike these crypto companies that unceremoniously dump their employees onto the street with a “grab your coat…you are leaving”.

Crypto is dominated by a pile of bs talk about creating a more “just society “ but in reality they are the worst example of capitalism….uncaring and incompetent.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Scam? likely not. Just an honest mistake that could cost believers a lot of money.


Sounds like a logic error in the code. Compound is considered one of the most proven protocols but solidity is also considered messy for smart contracts

I'm on a closed testnet on a more advanced chain that is about to launch a much better version of compound. Definitely a lot that can go wrong with smart contracts and price feeds. Also very lucrative because of that risk. I was making insane yields on new protocols few months ago. There have been exploits found but people rather take the white hat fee.

If liquidation happened from a logic error they could just vote to make people whole again and the newer protocols set fees aside for this. Errors happen all the time and whereas sags thinks there is no one to talk to it's because he has no clue what he's talking about. The point of DeFi is to use DAOs to make decisions and multi sigs to execute them

Eventually the risk comes down but so does the reward. I wouldn't recommend it for saggy brains that don't understand the first thing about it


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Bad comparison.
> 
> A pension plan is held separate from the company and is regulated.
> 
> Worse case scenario was collecting a 65% pension with the PBGF paying the other 35% for life. GM had contributed premiums to the PBGF for decades exactly for this purpose.
> 
> The government loans saved the PBGF, not the retirees and members who would receive 100% of their pension in any event.
> 
> My brother receives his full pension from a mix of GM, BRK, and General Dynamics.
> 
> Pension liabilities were conditions on the sales of GM companies to other corporations.
> 
> GM went to great lengths to protect their employees, in pensions, buyout options, benefits, and transfer rights to other locations, unlike these crypto companies that unceremoniously dump their employees onto the street with a “grab your coat…you are leaving”.
> 
> Crypto is dominated by a pile of bs talk about creating a more “just society “ but in reality they are the worst example of capitalism….uncaring and incompetent.


GM and Bombardier are scams on the taxpayer pretending to benefit employees

Why do you think the Chinese are building GM SUVs now? How does that show GM cares about its employees? What about Sears pensions? Government should bail them out too?

Reality is GM doesn't care but they get bailed out for the sake of creating jobs, so they can sell their retirees Chinese made SUVs subsidized by the taxpayer


----------



## sags

The GMC Acadia is built in Spring Hill, Tennessee. The Chevrolet Trailblazer is built in South Korea.

You must be confusing with Tesla building cars in Shanghai with plans to build a second assembly plant there.









Tesla China Reportedly Cranking Out Exports Faster Than Ever Before


Tesla's Giga Shanghai just produced its millionth vehicle, and it's still ramping up. It will be interesting to see how many cars Tesla delivers in Q3 2022.




insideevs.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> You must be confusing with Tesla building cars in Shanghai with plans to build a second assembly plant there.


Did the Canadian taxpayer bail out Tesla?

Will they be selling Chinese made Teslas to Canadians that used to work making Teslas in Canada? Why did the taxpayer bailout GM again? Do you think the taxpayer should bail out crypto jobs you say companies don't care about?

How much would GM really care about its employees if it wasn't milking the taxpayer for bailouts? What about Bombardier who sold out as well?


----------



## sags

Canadian government subsidies for Tesla vehicles.









Electric Vehicle Incentives | Tesla Support Canada


Several provinces and local utilities offer electric vehicle incentives for customers. Find province and local-specific incentives available in your area.




www.tesla.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Canadian government subsidies for Tesla vehicles.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Electric Vehicle Incentives | Tesla Support Canada
> 
> 
> Several provinces and local utilities offer electric vehicle incentives for customers. Find province and local-specific incentives available in your area.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tesla.com


This is smart

Imagine if Canada gave the GM/Bombardier bailout money to Tesla with some strings to hire GM/Bombardier layoffs. Then we'd be a world leader in EV manufacturing by now and adding real value to our natural resources instead of selling them to Korea and China

Elon studied engineering in Kingston and had to fight uphill battle in the US with the legacy companies controlling US government and EPA. SpaceX has proven far more efficient with government money than legacy companies by orders of magnitude

Instead we got Korean made SUVs and a Hummer EV nobody wants - and bonuses for GM/Bombardier execs


----------



## sags

People can buy crypto if they want. I just wouldn't recommend getting your financial advice from crypto dudes.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> People can buy crypto if they want. I just wouldn't recommend getting your financial advice from crypto dudes.


Better to listen to unionized boomers with indexed DB pensions

Cause everybody has those nowadays


----------



## sags

Better to listen to anyone other than Bitcoin Bob and Tether Ted.


----------



## sags

The US releases a new framework on regulating crypto and it strongly favors US central bank digital dollars.

_The framework also points to the potential for “significant benefits” from a U.S. central bank digital currency, or CBDC, which you can think of as a digital form of the U.S. dollar. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell previously said the main incentive for the U.S. to launch its own central bank digital currency would be to eliminate the use case for crypto coins in America.

*“You wouldn’t need stablecoins; you wouldn’t need cryptocurrencies, if you had a digital U.S. currency,” Powell said.* “I think that’s one of the stronger arguments in its favor.”_









Biden White House just put out a framework on regulating crypto — here’s what’s in it


The framework outlines ways in which the financial services industry should evolve to make borderless transactions easier, as well as how to crack down on fraud.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## sags

Ethereum completes the "merge" which converts the blockchain validators from a POW (proof of work) to a POS model. (proof of stake)

The expected token price rise didn't happen and instead Ether dropped 8% and has added to that loss today. It is down 60% year to date.

The perceived problem with the change among crypto investors is Ethereum would no longer be decrentralized, but would be highly centralized among those who own the most tokens.

It is worth noting the much hated WEF (world economic forum) among crypto enthusiasts is in favor of the change, citing the opportunity for large scale investors.

Bitcoin has also fallen below $20K. It looks like the crypto craze is slowly winding down.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The US releases a new framework on regulating crypto and it strongly favors US central bank digital dollars.
> 
> _The framework also points to the potential for “significant benefits” from a U.S. central bank digital currency, or CBDC, which you can think of as a digital form of the U.S. dollar.
> 
> Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell previously said the main incentive for the U.S. to launch its own central bank digital currency would be to eliminate the use case for crypto coins in America.
> 
> *“You wouldn’t need stablecoins; you wouldn’t need cryptocurrencies, if you had a digital U.S. currency,” Powell said.* “I think that’s one of the stronger arguments in its favor.”_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Biden White House just put out a framework on regulating crypto — here’s what’s in it
> 
> 
> The framework outlines ways in which the financial services industry should evolve to make borderless transactions easier, as well as how to crack down on fraud.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com


Unfortunately for boomer Powel and boomer Biden, nobody under the age of boomer is that dumb. The US does not regulate the world.

Of course they want to centrally control everything like a Chinese dictatorship, but americans like their freedom. Especially the ones who grew up with free access to information. We need separation of money from state just like we need separation of church and state.

Of course boomers don't understand this because they grew up without much information, but times are changing and the boomers will be retiring


----------



## sags

$30 billion leaves crypto market in 24 hours as Ethereum's Merge fails to ignite the rally


Despite the Merge touted as bullish, the crypto market is recording capital outflows outweighed by other factors like skyrocketing inflation.




finbold.com


----------



## sags

The wealthy elite are in control of crypto.

The crypto crowd will accumulate crypto and be happy to own nothing.









Exploring the connections between World Economic Forum and Bitcoin


Bitcoin users have begun to notice connections between some major projects and financial organizations like the World Economic Forum, these connections are real, but it's only scratching the surface.




coingeek.com


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Ethereum completes the "merge" which converts the blockchain validators from a POW (proof of work) to a POS model. (proof of stake)
> 
> The expected token price rise didn't happen and instead Ether dropped 8% and has added to that loss today. It is down 60% year to date.
> 
> The perceived problem with the change among crypto investors is Ethereum would no longer be decrentralized, but would be highly centralized among those who own the most tokens.
> 
> It is worth noting the much hated WEF (world economic forum) among crypto enthusiasts is in favor of the change, citing the opportunity for large scale investors.
> 
> Bitcoin has also fallen below $20K. It looks like the crypto craze is slowly winding down.


Pretty common in speculative markets. Clearly that is not your forte as ethereum is up more than 10x from just a few years ago

I'm now earning more yield on ethereum as the miners rewards have been redirected to stakers like me. I basically get the fees people spend to trade and use ethereum

Ethereum trying to do what more advanced chains can already do led to centralization. Not worth explaining here but CNBC is the worst place to look for crypto info


----------



## KaeJS

It was kind of expected for the price to drop.

Most miners are in it for the mining and selling aspect, not to hodl. When I used to mine, I sold as the funds came in because I knew what price I was getting and there are expenses (electricity).

Once the POW is gone, people start to sell off their ETH and their assets (GPUs). It becomes a race to the bottom.

No surprise here. The time to get out was a month ago when everyone knew POS was coming down the pipeline. The people rushing out the other day are just late to the party.


----------



## m3s

Miners had to sell to pay for electricity. Ethereum is now 99.5% more energy efficient and that sell pressure/cost is gone

Everybody is staking ETH with Lido though so that they can both stake and use DeFi at the same time. This is basically a 3rd party centralized way to do what Cardano was designed to do natively. Cardano just doesn't have the defi apps yet - but they are all being developed and waiting for a major Cardano upgrade in about a week. This is a bigger deal than ethereum merge imo.

I'm enjoying the bear markets far more. Lots of easy flips even this year. Lots of amazing stuff being built and less moon boys


----------



## investor65

_"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell previously said the main incentive for the U.S. to launch its own central bank digital currency would be to eliminate the use case for crypto coins in America.
*You wouldn’t need stablecoins; you wouldn’t need cryptocurrencies, if you had a digital U.S. currency,” Powell said.* “I think that’s one of the stronger arguments in its favor.”_
(Thanks Sags for posting these important comments by Mr. Powell)

How much more proof do people need that this is the end for BTC and its ilk?
The US govt is clearly telling us that they intend to eliminate the need for cryptos with their own digital currency.
It can't hold 20K and looks headed to 10K.


----------



## nathan79

investor65 said:


> _*“You wouldn’t need stablecoins; you wouldn’t need cryptocurrencies, if you had a digital U.S. currency,” Powell said.* “I think that’s one of the stronger arguments in its favor.”_
> 
> It really looks like the beginning of the end for BTC.
> Why on earth anyone want to own it after hearing that?
> It can't hold 20K and looks headed to 10K.


Sure... stablecoins mainly exist to fill a void that could be filled with a central bank digital USD, CAD, etc. 

However, there are a lot of unknowns regarding exactly how a CBDC would work, so it would be unwise to write off stablecoins completely. I'm skeptical that they will come up with something that is truly permissionless and without a bunch of strings attached.

"You wouldn't need cryptocurrencies" is missing the point by a mile. He's obviously talking to the same people who think inflation is good for GICs, so of course they don't need crypto.

I've always thought a CBDC will be bullish for cryptos like BTC -- just watch.


----------



## m3s

All the CBDC does is let a central bank issue currency directly to people. CBDC makes the private banks redundant. It could also make taxes and stimulus far more efficient

CBDC is very good for crypto because it is crypto and it's coming. You could still buy BTC with a CBDC just like you can still buy gold with fiat. Visa/MC are already using crypto rails. The end user doesn't need to know if digital value was settled on an ancient wire transfer or an etheruem blockchain. It's like saying the internet protocol is pointless because the banks made websites or something

BTC at $20K USD and people act like that is low. All time high a few years ago was $17k and that was considered insanely high. It's all relative


----------



## sags

The US will create network like Walmart did.

They will charge a small transaction fee on every transaction.

It will make crypto redundant, while raising significant revenue for the government.

None of the envisioned benefits of crypto have been fulfilled, but many serious problems have been exposed.

It is not an alternate currency, hedge against inflation, or storage of wealth.

It is used by criminals for fraud, theft, embezzlement, and other crimes.

Sell while there are still some greater fools around with more money than brains.


----------



## investor65

I remember a couple times in the past 60 days it went down nearly 10% in a single day.
Look at the 1yr and ytd performance between SPX and BTC. It's not even close.
The big boys rode this up and they have dumped it long ago.
They've moved onto something else and they're not coming back.
If there was any hope for BTC, then it should have held at 20K.
Like I said, it certainly looks like its headed to 10K.


----------



## m3s

investor65 said:


> They've moved onto something else and they're not coming back.
> If there was any hope for BTC, then it should have held at 20K.
> Like I said, it certainly looks like its headed to 10K.


You mean like the entire market? There's no liquidity anywhere

Not in RE, stocks, bonds, nowhere. So where did these "big boys" go and why hasn't it fallen to 0 if so?

Everything is on the cliff of crash down. This is by design of the central bank policy if you listen to them


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The US will create network like Walmart did.
> 
> They will charge a small transaction fee on every transaction.
> 
> It will make crypto redundant, while raising significant revenue for the government.
> 
> None of the envisioned benefits of crypto have been fulfilled, but many serious problems have been exposed.
> 
> It is not an alternate currency, hedge against inflation, or storage of wealth.
> 
> It is used by criminals for fraud, theft, embezzlement, and other crimes.
> 
> Sell while there are still some greater fools around with more money than brains.


To criticize something you should actually have some basic knowledge about what you are criticizing

You clearly do not have any knowledge about the things you criticize and do not add value here for anyone

This is why you have little success to show. No constructive criticism just wishing for UBI


----------



## Gator13

I read that Wintermute was hacked for 160m. It seems this is becoming more common. Naybe I'm wrong.









Hacked Crypto Market Maker Wintermute Has $200M in Outstanding DeFi Debt


The firm's CEO described the company as solvent following the $160 million hack.




www.coindesk.com


----------



## m3s

Gator13 said:


> I read that Wintermute was hacked for 160m. It seems this is becoming more common. Naybe I'm wrong.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hacked Crypto Market Maker Wintermute Has $200M in Outstanding DeFi Debt
> 
> 
> The firm's CEO described the company as solvent following the $160 million hack.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.coindesk.com


Hacks have been pretty common for bridges and centralized companies. This looks like a centralized company

If they have collateral on DeFi smart contracts they can't remove their collateral without repaying their loans. If they don't the lenders simply get their collateral. Main difference from traditional loans is DeFi loans are liquidated automatically by decentralized processing using algorithms and price oracles. No need to send a repo man or collections agency

Just like stocks you need to do due diligence and understand the risks.


----------



## sags

The "collateral" is a bunch of worthless tokens.


----------



## sags

Bitcoin price has held up for awhile, because the whales still have a lot of bitcoins to try to sell.

They started out with so many bitcoins that they couldn't dump them on the market or the price would have crashed to zero.

So they manipulate the price buying and selling tiny quantities to each other.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The "collateral" is a bunch of worthless tokens.


They're trading tokens, they think they have value, so they do.

Just like that Canadian Tire Money in your pocket.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> They're trading tokens, they think they have value, so they do.
> 
> Just like that Canadian Tire Money in your pocket.


Well I sold some for millions of dollars last year

sags mined BTC that is probably worth millions today. In an alternate universe where sags kept his crypto keys do you think he would say it's worthless? In fact he posted on here that be bought some last year around $60k usd so he must have believed they were worth that at the time

The only reason people hate crypto is because they don't have any


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Well I sold some for millions of dollars last year


 ... and strangely a self-made millionaire would want to offer "help" here on a DIY forum?



> sags mined BTC that is probably worth millions today. In an alternate universe where sags kept his crypto keys do you think he would say it's worthless? In fact he posted on here that be bought some last year around $60k usd so he must have believed they were worth that at the time


 ... and you would have believed him? Another oddity.



> The only reason people hate crypto is because they don't have any


 ... what an oxymoron, do you have any crypto now?


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> ... what an oxymoron, do you have any crypto now?


Of course

It's standard to scale in and out over time when you deal with large amounts. I haven't traded all in and out since early trading days when trading fees were very significant relative to the small amount. Nowadays there wouldn't be the liquidity for me to do that so the slippage costs me far more than the fees which decrease with volume.

I can tell you and sags don't trade because you both don't understand these concepts



Beaver101 said:


> ... and strangely a self-made millionaire would want to offer "help" here on a DIY forum?


Many members of this forum are self-made millionaires

Go have a look at the money diaries that have been going on for decades


----------



## Gator13

Life in the fast lane....









Investors scramble to recoup money from 23-year-old 'Crypto King' who allegedly owes $35 million


A 23-year-old self-described 'Crypto King' from Ontario allegedly owes at least $35 million to investors but most of the money has disappeared.




toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Of course
> 
> It's standard to scale in and out over time when you deal with large amounts. I haven't traded all in and out since early trading days when trading fees were very significant relative to the small amount. Nowadays there wouldn't be the liquidity for me to do that so the slippage costs me far more than the fees which decrease with volume.
> 
> I can tell you and sags don't trade because you both don't understand these concepts


 ... of course we, as with anyone else, DON'T understand the gibberish aka GARBAGE being spewed out. I didn't ask you if you traded or not - it was a simple question - do you owe any crypto now? A simple yes or no. Instead you start off with "of course ... gobblygooks next ...".

Let's assume that "of course" is coded to mean "Yes" aka you still own crypto (but in actuality to mean no, don't hold any). So why aren't you slapping yourself across the face for hating it based on your earlier oxymoronic statement:


> _*The only reason people hate crypto is because they don't have any*_





> Many members of this forum are self-made millionaires
> 
> Go have a look at the money diaries that have been going on for decades


 ... never looked into that section as I could care less. Besides anyone "truely" rich enough doesn't need someone else to identify that for them. And "real" millionaires don't offer their secrets ... for free.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> And "real" millionaires don't offer their secrets ... for free.


Most of this forum are millionaires. Just look at the money diary section. If you ever leave the off-topic threads

As fiat loses its value due to inflation a millionaire is not even that much anymore. It's barely a house


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Most of this forum are millionaires. Just look at the money diary section. If you ever leave the off-topic threads
> 
> As fiat loses its value due to inflation a millionaire is not even that much anymore. It's barely a house


 ... as said, I could care less if anyone was a "millionaire" on this forum 'cause it's none of my business. Besides, I don't emulate (nor have the need to emulate) moronic sleaze-bags.


----------



## investor65

I think cryptos are a big scam. But don't take my word for it.

Bill Gates thinks cryptos and NFTs are a sham.




__





Loading…






edition.cnn.com





Even Sillicon valley execs think BTC is a scam.








Jim Cramer Says Silicon Valley Thinks Bitcoin Is Scam | Coinspeaker


Jim Cramer says many tech executives in Silicon Valley believe that Bitcoin is a con and may have take a lot of investors' money.




www.coinspeaker.com





Alot of the world's best money managers think crypto is garbage.
Buffett, Munger, Dalio, Burry, Singer, Paulson, Mobius and Klarman.

Please add any I have missed.


----------



## m3s

investor65 said:


> Alot of the world's best money managers think crypto is garbage.
> Buffett, Munger, *Dalio*, Burry, Singer, Paulson, Mobius and Klarman.
> 
> Please add any I have missed.


Yes nice list of boomers who think crypto is a scam. What else is new (the boomers aren't)

Bill Gates had to explain the internet and PCs to old people as well. My grandparents never touched the internet or a PC. Old people are comfortable and don't like new things

Here's a video of Ray Dalio explaining crypto. He's a rare boomer that manages to keep an open mind


----------



## gardner

investor65 said:


> Please add any I have missed.


But they are all old, and therefore wrong.

Anyway, this one looks interesting. There've been a few major losses from "vanity" wallet addresses since someone worked out that the ones generated by Profanity can be brute forced. Not a scam, of course, but still fun.





__





Loading…






www.theblock.co







> The algorithmic market maker Wintermute suffered a major hack estimating the loss at around $160 million


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> But they are all old, and therefore wrong.


You can't criticize something you don't know anything about. You will get destroyed in any debate without the debater even going into detail

Most boomers have no idea what they are talking about. They literally have never touched or even tried to learn about it. It's like criticizing the internet before you ever used it

Ray Dalio actually did his homework. He never actually used it but at least he did some basic homework.


----------



## m3s

We're in the absolute depths of a bear market

I spent about $500 minting utility NFTs this week for yield optimzer protocol that I had access to as an early supporter. Already cashed out over $5000. I still have most of the NFTs which will be worth far more to me. They are utility NFTs so the buyer will make their money back in a year if they have capital to invest, otherwise they could resell it to someone who does.

Last year I diverted about $50k of yield to bootstrap this project. This means instead of earning income myself this startup could use it to develop. In return they will airdrop me coins on Jan 1 and June 1 next year which is tax beneficial to me. I'm confident they will be worth multiple times more than what I gave up - probably many times more. The lead developer is very well know from industry - he is not young

I won't give up the link to the project since apparently millionaires don't share alpha. Even though the internet is normally about sharing information with each other. Maybe the boomers don't understand that part as they grew up in a different time. If you had any clue it would be easy to know what I'm talking about in the way tech people knew about FANG before the masses did

I don't expect many on here to understand because the level of knowledge is clearly not at this level. It's like explaining the internet to people from the 1800s


----------



## MrBlackhill

Based on S2F model and on Rainbow chart, BTC is about the drop off the rainbow and I'm pretty sure the upcoming recession will make BTC drop to $10k or less, which shouldn't happen based on those models... I guess I'll buy 1 BTC that day (which likely means in 2023) with my fun money as that should make me a millionaire within a decade, again based on those models. Right?


----------



## MrBlackhill

I will honestly buy crypto in 2023. Not because I believe in crypto. Not because I believe in any predictive model. But because I believe crypto is purely based on behavioral economics, 100% of its movement is behavioral. It's a worldwide lottery game playing with billions of dollars, so it's here to stay. The world is way too addicted to money games to put a stop to this. That's the genius behind crypto.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Based on S2F model and on Rainbow chart, BTC is about the drop off the rainbow and I'm pretty sure the upcoming recession will make BTC drop to $10k or less, which shouldn't happen based on those models... I guess I'll buy 1 BTC that day (which likely means in 2023) with my fun money as that should make me a millionaire within a decade, again based on those models. Right?


I mean that's a pretty weak thesis. I wouldn't buy gold that way unless I had a good reason and plan to store and secure it

People who buy stuff they have no conviction in because they have no understanding and just based on 1 model will probably get absolutely wrecked. I don't have that much BTC myself but I do understand it and have conviction it it. I know MIT students who are now advising the Pentagon on BTC.

Pretty much any tech university worth its salt is teaching blockchain tech now. You have to put in some basic effort to learn.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Based on S2F model and on Rainbow chart, BTC is about the drop off the rainbow and I'm pretty sure the upcoming recession will make BTC drop to $10k or less, which shouldn't happen based on those models... I guess I'll buy 1 BTC that day (which likely means in 2023) with my fun money as that should make me a millionaire within a decade, again based on those models. Right?


BTC has broke above the model before very briefly. It would be very hard to sell when it spikes up like that

BTC could easily break below this trend without breaking the model. Normally the bottom gives very little time to buy. This is why timing the top or bottom is so hard

Models are just models that should be updated over time. This is common for any models they are just a way to analyze trends


----------



## m3s

Canadian are pretty isolated from crypto

I don't even see Canada on the list of countries adopting crypto. You would need to travel more to see how the world is changing outside of Canada

US is pretty high on the list. Ukraine has one of the highest adoption rates now. South asia is very high on adoption and even China is despite the ban


----------



## MrBlackhill

My thesis is based on behavioral economics, so I don't care about the models and I don't care about understanding crypto or learning about crypto, because in my opinion the required knowledge is about behavioral economics or more precisely behavioral finances. I'll start learning more about crypto when people will start seeing it as an alternative to fiat money, not as a investment vehicle like most do at the moment.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> My thesis is based on behavioral economics


So trading based on the market cycle and sentiment?

There is a BTC fear/greed index and we just went into extreme fear I believe. As Warren says buy when people are fearful and sell when people are greedy. I provide liquidity for crypto/stable pairs and receive a share of the trading fees over time. This automatically buys low and sells high for me and pays me meanwhile

These are things that are hard to understand because they simply can not exist in traditionary finance - the bank earns the fees from trading your liquidity instead









Crypto Fear & Greed Index - Bitcoin Sentiment


The crypto fear & greed index of alternative.me provides an easy overview of the current sentiment of the Bitcoin / crypto market at a glance.




alternative.me


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Based on S2F model and on Rainbow chart, BTC is about the drop off the rainbow and I'm pretty sure the upcoming recession will make BTC drop to $10k or less, which shouldn't happen based on those models... I guess I'll buy 1 BTC that day (which likely means in 2023) with my fun money as that should make me a millionaire within a decade, again based on those models. Right?


You are reading the models wrong. You can see price breaks both above and below models just not for long

Stock to flow model doesn't tell you what day to buy to make you a millionaire. But apparently the guy who made the model is buying now

I think trying to pick 1 day to make yourself a millionaire with 1 trade is naive. Just DCA in and out. You won't time the bottom


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572577594058637318


----------



## Gator13

^ Interesting chart


----------



## sags

So the guy purchased bitcoin at $400 and didn't sell any at $68,000 ?

He purchased at $4000 and again didn't sell any at $68,000 ?

Now he is buying at $20,000 ?

If the chart accurately reflects his trading.....if the price crashed he would HODL all the way to $0 and would lose 100% of his investment.

Not the smartest way to trade. If people want to trade.......they need to harvest profits and then re-invest only some of the profit.


----------



## sags

Reminds me of the guy on WSB who made a fortune in GameStop shares and then sat on it while it all dribbled away.

Reminds me of the guy who made a fortune in some alt coin....I think it was Shibu, and then didn't sell any and it crashed.

These guys aren't traders. They are speculators who got lucky and didn't know when to sell.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> My thesis is based on behavioral economics, so I don't care about the models and I don't care about understanding crypto or learning about crypto, because in my opinion the required knowledge is about behavioral economics or more precisely behavioral finances. I'll start learning more about crypto when people will start seeing it as an alternative to fiat money, not as a investment vehicle like most do at the moment.


I think this is exactly the wrong way to evaluate an *investment*. 
When crypto is used in place of a fiat currency, it should be mostly stable, and won't be much of an investment, just like fiat currency trading today isn't really an investment opportunity (it's a trading strategy)

I think the current way to evaluate crypto as an investment, is like any other investment. 
What value does is provide? If the price is lower than the discounted future value, buy, if the current price is higher than the future value, don't buy.

Investing based on behavioural economics is basically technical analysis IMO. 
People like Enron, lets buy some too... great way to lose money.


----------



## sags

Some of it is behavioral.

People who buy in at the beginning of a speculative bubble and then watch the investment skyrocket, have a tendency to begin considering themselves as "expert" traders, smarter than every one else and able to continue to pile on the profits.

It is a natural tendency to believe that our successes are based on our superior judgement and skill and luck has little to do with it.


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> You are reading the models wrong. You can see price breaks both above and below models just not for long


Maybe the dips didn't last long over the past years, but BTC is currently down and the upcoming recession crash hasn't happened yet, so I expect that BTC will go further down this time, same for the stock market. Since its creation, BTC has only seen bubbles and a flash-crash, it hasn't seen a bear market yet. That's why I expect this dip to last longer and to go further down.

I agree I'm timing the market, but I have a pretty high confidence that the market will continue to see lower lows in 2023.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> I agree I'm timing the market, but I have a pretty high confidence that the market will continue to see lower lows in 2023.


I agree with you it will likely go down more.

What I mean is even if we know it should crash harder, it would be just as hard to buy the bottom as selling the top. What creates the bottom is large fast buying to catch the market off guard so there isn't time by design. I bought the bottom in 2020 but it was very short lived. Like you better have the cash in place ready to buy

Definitely less risk to buy after a crisis than before.


----------



## m3s

All of JPMorgan Dimon's examples of why crypto is bad are things he enables and profits from in legacy finance

He seems to understand the new use cases but seems completely ignorant of his own the hypocrisy. Or just trying to protect his business of course


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573024973190754304


----------



## sags

Bitcoin falling again today. It is back to 2018 prices.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Bitcoin falling again today. It is back to 2018 prices.


It's down 1%

You must be new here. It was lower in June and hit these prices several times in the last few months

Interesting you watch the price more than I do. And yet don't understand what a market price is


----------



## sags

Bitcoin is down 2.77% in the last 24 hours. It is now the same price as December 2018.

Everyone who invested and HODL bitcoin the last 4 years is underwater.

Crypto is a big fail kaputski.

Face the reality m3s.....you gambled big and lost. Accept personal responsibility and move on.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Bitcoin is down 2.77% in the last 24 hours. It is now the same price as December 2018.
> 
> Everyone who invested and HODL bitcoin the last 4 years is underwater.
> 
> Crypto is a big fail kaputski.
> 
> Face the reality m3s.....you gambled big and lost. Accept responsibility and move on.


Down 2.7%? You must be new here

Listen nobody here cares what you have to say sags. I haven't lost anything which is irrelevant. You clearly don't trade so wouldn't understand how this works

You demonstrate repeatedly that don't understand the very basics of finance and you clearly don't trade any real money.

You add no value by spamming your lack of understanding and I will continue to point this out for the sake of others


----------



## Thal81

sags said:


> Everyone who invested and HODL bitcoin the last 4 years is underwater.


Not quite. Everyone who invested and held in the last 2 years are underwater. The prices before december 2020 were lower than today, except for that short surge in late 2017/18.

But I get your point, and I agree this is just a slowly deflating bubble. Fortunes have/will be lost.


----------



## m3s

Entire market is down everywhere not just crypto.

USD M2 money supply is flat lined this year. It has never been flat in history. USD now has less supply issuance than gold or BTC. This is the magic of a central bank. This is making the USD a powerhouse against all other fiat currencies and hurting many economies. Don't fight the Fed.

Go up a a few posts and watch Ray Dalio on BTC again. He predicted a competition of monies. With Russia demanding payment in rubles we now have a competition of monies.

People are bragging about government surpluses from last year. These people don't seem to understand that that was when the market was a bubble and people were raking in massive capital gains. That was before the war started

At some point Fed will have to pivot print USD again. They are publicly inflicting pain on all markets by restricting liquidity. Otherwise the USD would lose its place as the global reserve currency

It's literally magic central banker money


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Bitcoin is down 2.77% in the last 24 hours. It is now the same price as December 2018.
> 
> Everyone who invested and HODL bitcoin the last 4 years is underwater.
> 
> Crypto is a big fail kaputski.
> 
> Face the reality m3s.....you gambled big and lost. Accept personal responsibility and move on.


 ... I'm surprised it's still holding a "value" from "2018" even.

Look at this one - I don't see the name of the company owned by this 23 year old "Crypto-King" (from our own city of Whitby in Ontario, Canada!) on this forum so what the hell:

Investors scramble to recoup money from 23-year-old 'Crypto King' who allegedly owes $35 million



> _By Hannah Alberga, September 21, 2022
> 
> A 23-year-old self-described “Crypto King” from Whitby, Ont. allegedly owes at least $35 million to investors, but only about $2 million of his assets have been recouped, including lavish possessions like two McLarens, two BMWs and a Lamborghini, documents show.
> 
> More than 150 investors who handed over a collective $20 million to Aiden Pleterski and his company AP Private Equity Limited, which invests in cryptocurrency and foreign exchange, are now working with fraud recovery lawyer Norman Groot to get their money back.
> 
> “It's not clear at this time where those funds have gone, even though obviously a lot of it has to do with his lifestyle,” Groot, founder of Investigation Counsel PC, told CTV National News.
> 
> 
> 
> Aiden Pleterski is seen in an undated photo posted on FilmFreeway.
> 
> Pleterski owned 11 high-end cars, in addition to leasing several others, rented a waterfront home in Burlington for approximately $45,000 per month and owned five or six watches, valued at between $200,000 and $400,000, according to a bankruptcy trustee's report obtained by CTV National News._
> He was burning a lot of money,” Groot said.
> 
> _On Aug. 9, the Ontario Superior Court of Justice declared Pleterski and his company bankrupt.
> 
> But only $2.2 million worth of assets has been seized, including $32,000 worth of jewellery and personal items, a list of luxury cars, with 2018 Lamborghini Huracan reaching the highest estimated value at $350,000, along with cash and bank drafts worth $606,773.
> 
> “The assets available shortly after bankruptcy are certainly much less than what's owed to the investors,” Rob Stelzer, who was appointed as Pleterski’s bankruptcy trustee, told CTV News Toronto.
> 
> *'A YOUNG BILL GATES'*
> Pleterski called every week “winning week,” promising investors five to seven per cent on returns, according to documents from a creditors meeting on Aug. 29.
> 
> “People bought into it. They thought he was a young Bill Gates,” Groot said.
> 
> Though he was young, Pleterski began investing in cryptocurrency back in 2015, with an article in Forbes pre-dating his bankruptcy noting his ability to leverage his knowledge as an avid gamer to understand and thrive in the online trading world.
> 
> “A lot of this money was taken in while it was escalating in value, and then when it quickly started to de-escalate in value, people wanted what they thought were their profits…which of course, he couldn’t pay out,” Groot said.
> 
> Stelzer said a number of people have alleged Pleterski was operating a Ponzi scheme. “We are investigating that,” he said._
> ...


 ... GenZs suckers should be thanking this GenZ genius for handling their monies that they talked out of their GENX mom and dad who then stretched their hands out on Boomers grandpa and grandma.


----------



## m3s

Boomers don't seem to understand how mainstream media works

It's all they grew up with so they seem to believe the curated narrative is reality when it's really clickbait to sell ads. It's like they live through the lens of mainstream media clickbait - hook line and sinker. Clearly lacking in critical thought

The sooner society can move on from the degenerative generation holding disproportionate control and wealth the better


----------



## Beaver101

Beaver101 said:


> ... I'm surprised it's still holding a "value" from "2018" even.
> 
> Look at this one - I don't see the name of the company owned by this 23 year old "Crypto-King" (from our own city of Whitby in Ontario, Canada!) on this forum so what the hell:
> 
> Investors scramble to recoup money from 23-year-old 'Crypto King' who allegedly owes $35 million
> 
> ... GenZs suckers should be thanking this GenZ genius for handling their monies that they talked out of their GENX mom and dad who then stretched their hands out on Boomers grandpa and grandma.


 ... I wonder if there were any "boomers" in this crypto-scam. Juicy details coming out:

New details reveal how the alleged 'crypto king' scheme left investors out millions



> _By Hannah Alberga, CTV News Toronto Multi-Platform writer, Tuesday, October 25, 2022
> 
> A self-described “crypto king” from Ontario was living a lavish life – driving a lime green Lamborghini and boating on a multi-leveled yacht – before an investor alleged the 23-year-old had scammed him out of millions.
> 
> Legal documents obtained by CTV News Toronto detail the months leading up to the moment 150 investors petitioned Aiden Pleterski into bankruptcy, reveal domestic violence charges were previously filed against him, then dropped, and ultimately beg the question – where did all the money go?
> 
> Aiden Pleterski is seen in a split photo. He is seen in a mug shot taken in Florida (left) and in an image posted on social media (right).
> Legal action against Pleterski began with a single plaintiff – Sacha Amar Dario Singh, a licensed realtor in Toronto.
> 
> Since then, the tab of money owed to investors has allegedly mounted to at least $35-million.
> “The numbers in reality could be quite a bit higher,” Norman Groot, a fraud recovery lawyer representing 150 investors who handed money to Pletersk, told CTV News Toronto.
> 
> From April 2021 to January 2022, Singh invested $4.6 million with Pleterski’s company, AP Private Equity Limited, according to a Mareva injunction, which Ontario Superior Court of Justice Judge Phillip Sutherland granted in July.
> 
> The Mareva injunction was an “extraordinary measure” that, in effect, froze Pleterski’s assets and petitioned him into bankruptcy.
> 
> On several occasions, CTV News Toronto has reached out to Pleterski’s lawyer but no response has been received.
> 
> “My client, who invested in Aiden and was reassured that the investments had grown to approximately $33 million, was provided promises that that money was available for him and provided promises that he could withdraw the money or get payments and those premises were not entirely fulfilled,” Tanya Walker, who represents Singh and his corporation, told CTV News Toronto.
> “There were small payments made to my client, very small compared to what he invested.”
> 
> A written contract, penned by Pleterski, promised Singh a 70-30 per cent split on capital gains along with a 10 to 20 per cent biweekly growth target on his investments.
> At this point in time, Pleterski had acquired a reputation for his “superior trading ability,” according to the injunction.
> 
> Court documents state that Pleterski pledged to repay the full initial investment if any investments were lost. The terms also detailed that investors were able to withdraw any amount of their capital gains and Pleterski would provide it within three business days.
> 
> In February – nearly a year after Singh was introduced to Pleterski – he began making requests to withdraw $1 million, $300,000 and $3.5 million installments over the span of a month in order to meet financial obligations.
> 
> But Pleterski told him he was having issues withdrawing funds, court documents say.
> Two months later, one of Pleterski’s associates showed Singh screenshots and a video of an account statement at FXChoice, a trading company headquartered in Belize, with funds worth more than $311 million in the AP Equity company name along with over $1.4 million in Pleterski’s personal account, according to the injunction.
> 
> “My client contacted one of the institutions. He was concerned that that wasn’t actually true, that it could be a fabricated screenshot,” Walker said.
> When Singh spoke to FXChoice in May, they said Pleterski and his company did not have accounts containing those funds, legal documents state.
> FXChoice has not responded to CTV News Toronto’s requests for comment.
> 
> In the spring of 2021, Pleterski's Instagram account began depicting a lavish lifestyle.
> He posted stories of frequent trips to Miami, cruising on a multi-leveled yacht and pulling up to a jet in a lime green Lamborghini.
> 
> It was at this time, on June 9, 2021, domestic violence charges were filed against Pleterski in Florida.
> 
> Mya Trentadue alleged Pleterski, her boyfriend of approximately one year, started a verbal altercation with her when she discovered content on his Instagram, according to an affidavit filed in Winter Haven, Fla.
> 
> Deputy Zachary Eason noted there were several red scratches on Trentadue’s collarbone and left bicep when he arrived at a residence in Davenport, Fla., south of Orlando.
> 
> “The suspect intentionally grabbed the front of the victim's shirt with both hands and began to yell at her. This intentional violence was against the victim's will,” Eason wrote in the affidavit.
> 
> The document goes on to say that Pleterski restrained his girlfriend by grabbing and pushing her away from the front door when she tried to leave. For 30 minutes, he stood by the doorway refusing to move, according to the file.
> 
> “The victim stated she did not feel free to leave during this time,” the affidavit reads.
> The prosecution later indicated on June 22 that they would not be moving forward with charges.
> CTV News Toronto has reached out to Trentadue several times but has not received a response.
> 
> The fraud recovery lawyer representing the 150 investors who handed money to Pleterski told CTV News Toronto everyone he has spoken to believed the 23-year-old was actually conducting foreign exchange or cryptocurrency trading.
> 
> “When in reality it looks like very little or none of that actually happened,” Groot said.
> 
> Groot is spearheading an effort to trace a collective $20 million allegedly owed to his clients. So far, bankruptcy trustees have only been able to recoup about $2 million of Pleterski’s assets.
> “Initially when this whole thing started … there was a small amount of trading done, but the bulk of the money received never went into any trading. That’s our understanding. We have not seen any trading records,” he said. “It's investments done on a blind form of faith.”
> 
> Three months after Singh attempted to withdraw funds from his investments, he still didn’t have the money requested. He made a plan to meet Pleterski for lunch on June 18. Pleterski said he would send Singh $50,000 as an act of good faith to prove that he intended to repay the funds.
> 
> But, Singh says Pleterski cancelled the lunch and only transferred $10,000.
> 
> Days after they had scheduled to meet, Singh says he heard that Pleterski was selling his luxury cars and removing a bank safe from a rental storage facility.
> 
> “Singh deposes that Aiden is taking steps to dissipate, sell or hide his assets to prevent any creditor from acquiring said assets. This includes expensive vehicles such [as] Lamborghinis, Audis, Ferrari, Land Rover along with liquid assets in bank and cryptocurrency accounts in other countries, such as Belize,” the court documents read.
> 
> Since June, Singh claims he has not been able to reach Pleterski.
> 
> Pleterski’s bankruptcy trustee told CTV News Toronto that he could not disclose where the 23-year-old currently is due to the ongoing nature of the file and his responsibility to maintain client-confidentiality.
> 
> “The calls continue to come in and the information we are receiving is that the scope of this particular Ponzi scheme is quite a bit larger than we currently know,” Groot said.
> 
> “Given the amount that the trustee has recovered today, which as far as I know is a couple million dollars, it begs the questions – where did all the money go?” _


_...._ summary:

1. Why would anyone invest with a pimply-faced guy, especially one that's coming out of puberty?
2. Why would a "realtor" invest $4.6M of his money (if it is) when he was lready in a hot house market. I'm guessing $4.6M wasn't enough and he needed $33M to pay ... himself or someone else's money (back)?
3. The question now is not where did all the money go since we know the answer already - it's gone. The question is how long of a jail sentence is this scammer gonna to get. Hmmm.... 75 years will make a nice round century for him.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> _...._ summary:
> 
> 1. Why would anyone invest with a pimply-faced guy, especially one that's coming out of puberty?
> 2. Why would a "realtor" invest $4.6M of his money (if it is) when he was lready in a hot house market. I'm guessing $4.6M wasn't enough and he needed $33M to pay ... himself or someone else's money (back)?
> 3. The question now is not where did all the money go since we know the answer already - it's gone. The question is how long of a jail sentence is this scammer gonna to get. Hmmm.... 75 years will make a nice round century for him.


Are you saying these same scams didn't already exist in traditional finance?



Beaver101 said:


> ... I wonder if there were any "boomers" in this crypto-scam. Juicy details coming out:


Clickbait porn for boomers basically. Living rent free in your mind to justify why you missed out


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Are you saying these same scams didn't already exist in traditional finance?


 ... traditional finance requires licensing and have regulatory bodies to go to for compensation. Where's the regulatory body for compensation for these crypt-scams? Lawsuits?



> Clickbait porn for boomers basically. Living rent free in your mind to justify why you missed out


 ... so front page news on CP24 is considered clickbait porn and those on IG, Ticktock or whatever other social media crxps ain't? And why would a boomer want to "miss out" on this sh1t?


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> ... traditional finance requires licensing and have regulatory bodies to go to for compensation. Where's the regulatory body for compensation for these crypt-scams? Lawsuits?


Humans have exists for how long beav

Traditional finance has existed for how long beav? Did God himself create these financial licensing and regulatory bodies on day 6?

Once people hit a certain age they think the world is suddenly frozen in time



Beaver101 said:


> ... so front page news on CP24 is considered clickbait porn and those on IG, Ticktock or whatever other social media crxps ain't? And why would a boomer want to "miss out" on this sh1t?


The TikTok kids call it coping


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... traditional finance requires licensing and have regulatory bodies to go to for compensation. Where's the regulatory body for compensation for these crypt-scams? Lawsuits?


I'm curious, what part is the "scam"?
That they didn't get what they paid for.
or they got what they paid for, they just overpaid for it?

Crypto is still mostly unregulated, and even if it was fully and properly regulated, it isn't illegal to overpay for something, and as long as people get what they paid for, I'm not sure how any of this is actually problematic.


I bought some litecoin, I have the litecoin. I don't think i was scammed, I got EXACTLY what I paid for.


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Humans have exists for how long beav
> 
> Traditional finance has existed for how long beav? Did God himself create these financial licensing and regulatory bodies on day 6?
> 
> Once people hit a certain age they think the world is suddenly frozen in time


 ... what's your point? Certain humans are born schemers, if not just plain evil.



> The TikTok kids call it coping


 ... and they can't even do it right like these ones 'cause the GENX/Y/Z and Millennials can't cope themselves.

TikTok challenge possibly linked to teens' deadly car crash in New York


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> I'm curious, what part is the "scam"?
> That they didn't get what they paid for.
> or they got what they paid for, they just overpaid for it?


 ... you don't feel scammed when you're told your investment of whatever or you'll never see your $4.6M (LMAO!!!!) deposit back for some bito-crypto-coins, let alone the "gain" on that "investment". If that's not a scam, then what is it?



> Crypto is still mostly unregulated, and even if it was fully and properly regulated, it isn't illegal to overpay for something, and as long as people get what they paid for, I'm not sure how any of this is actually problematic.


 ... huh? Even it's fully and properly regulated, it isn't a problematic if your Apple stock went to a buck tomorrow? Whoa ...




> I bought some litecoin, I have the litecoin. I don't think i was scammed, I got EXACTLY what I paid for.


 ... of course you got exactly what you paid for. Let's see you flip it to get what you exactly "expected" it to be. Paid $1K, get $1M. 

Ever heard of garbage-in-is-garbage-out?


----------



## gardner

This one looks like just a flat out scam...



https://news.yahoo.com/freeway-crypto-platform-promised-43-100000600.html



Freeway, a financial scheme that promised to pay out rewards of up to 43% annually, announced to its users that due to "unprecedented volatility in Foreign Exchange and Cryptocurrency markets in recent times", they would be pausing their program. The project reportedly halted withdrawals on more than $100 million worth of assets, removed all mentions of its team from their website, and removed an attestation to the company's financial backing.

The day before the project announced the pause, a whistleblower urged people to withdraw funds immediately because he believed they were operating a Ponzi scheme. "In my opinion, it's likely that Freeway will collapse within the next few months and that all depositors will lose everything."


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> The day before the project announced the pause, a whistleblower urged people to withdraw funds immediately because he believed they were operating a Ponzi scheme. "In my opinion, it's likely that Freeway will collapse within the next few months and that all depositors will lose everything."


Not your keys not your crypto

Nearly all these centralized services have failed.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... you don't feel scammed when you're told your investment of whatever or you'll never see your $4.6M (LMAO!!!!) deposit back for some bito-crypto-coins, let alone the "gain" on that "investment". If that's not a scam, then what is it?


Okay, If I buy a bitcoin and I get a bitcoin, where is the scam?
If you send $4.6M to some guy on the internet, without doing any due diligence that's your vault.



> ... huh? Even it's fully and properly regulated, it isn't a problematic if your Apple stock went to a buck tomorrow? Whoa ...


As long as the information I had access to was complete and truthful, no it isn't a problem.
And yes I've bought stock in companies that went bankrupt.



> ... of course you got exactly what you paid for. Let's see you flip it to get what you exactly "expected" it to be. Paid $1K, get $1M.


If you got exactly what you paid for, then you weren't scammed.

Those people who expects that they'll buy something for $1k, and get $1M, is trying to scam the seller.



> Ever heard of garbage-in-is-garbage-out?


Uh yeah, what does that have to do with anything?

I've said the same thing for years.
I think crypto is an interesting and useful technology.
I don't see a valuation case that justifies the current high prices.
I think some crypto has a nonzero value, how far from zero, depends on the technology, but some (dogecoin) are nearly worthless, while Ethereum or Cardano clearly do some "useful" things.


----------



## sags

Crypto is worth what some idiots 
will pay for it and not a penny more.


----------



## sags

They scrubbed their website of their names and bs claims of riches.

Apparently they never heard of archive or wayback that has copies of it all.


----------



## sags

Note the claims and terms that are popular in crypto and often repeated, including here on CMF.

Staking… native tokens… earning crypto with crypto…easy profits…socialized finance…. blah, blah, blahbutty blah.

The mutterings of fools me thinks.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Crypto is worth what some idiots
> will pay for it and not a penny more.


Everything is worth what someone will pay for it saggy man

Even fiat itself is literally traded for what someone will give you for it. Fiat is traded for other fiat based on what the market will give. This is what FX traders do. There is no set value saggy man

It's interesting how crypto shows how little people understand the world they lived in for so long


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Note the claims and terms that are popular in crypto and often repeated, including on CMF.
> 
> Staking… native tokens… earning crypto with crypto…easy profits…socialized finance…. blah, blah.
> 
> The mutterings of fools me thinks.


Says the guy with a self proclaimed PhD in economics from CNBC

This is what you sound like using terms you don't understand


----------



## sags

No … crypto is only worth what an idiot would pay for it.

Sooner or later the supply of idiots will dry up.

Fiat currencies have purchasing power backed by the wealth of nations.

Crypto has no purchasing power and is backed by nothing.


----------



## sags

Governments will introduce a centralized crypto currency and everything else will go the way of the old internet search engines.

You probably weren’t old enough when the first computers came out and there was dial up access.

The internet always moved forward, while crypto is going backwards.

I bought and sold internet domain names when you were still in public school.

In fact there old threads on CMF where I discussed a few of them.

Gamboola. com was one I liked.

It is a real place in Australia.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Governments will introduce a centralized crypto currency and everything else will go the way of the old internet search engines.
> 
> You probably weren’t old enough when the first computers came out and there was dial up access.
> 
> The internet always moved forward, while crypto is going backwards.
> 
> I bought and sold internet domain names when you were still in public school.


Yes I used dial up internet saggy man

I also bought some domain names, learned to code, did web hosting business, web development, ecommerce, p2p networking all on dial up. While still in public school. Same thing is happening now except better. I minted handles for $10 that have sold for over $100k. Many are worth thousands now. If you liked domain names you would love this

You lost your BTC because you didn't understand it and now hate it. It's called coping


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Fiat currencies have purchasing power backed by the wealth of nations.
> 
> Crypto has no purchasing power and is backed by nothing.


Fiat is not backed by any value saggy man. That's the definition of fiat money. It is worth what people believe it is worth

You lack of ability to retain knowledge is impressive as we've covered this basic topic many times now but you don't learn.

Just because you got a job at a party without highschool doesn't mean you can't learn something new once in awhile



> Fiat money does not have intrinsic value and does not have use value.* It has value only because the individuals who use it as a unit of account – or, in the case of currency, a medium of exchange – agree on its value. *They trust that it will be accepted by merchants and other people.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Governments will introduce a centralized crypto currency and everything else will go the way of the old internet search engines.


Only if they criminalize the alternatives.


----------



## Beaver101

MrMatt said:


> Okay, If I buy a bitcoin and I get a bitcoin, where is the scam?
> If you send $4.6M to some guy on the internet, without doing any due diligence that's your vault.


 ... did you not read all the sentences or you just like to take everything out of context? Of course, there's no scam if you bought a green banana and enjoyed eating it. However, it was promised to be sweet and tasty instead of being astringent, then weren't you scammed?



> As long as the information I had access to was complete and truthful, no it isn't a problem.


 ... so you are in the belief that the information given to you by a pock-faced kid about bitcoins or crypto-to be money-making, it's not a problem for you? Okay.


> And yes I've bought stock in companies that went bankrupt.


 ... that wasn't the question.



> If you got exactly what you paid for, then you weren't scammed.


 ... not until you find out or your expectation of the "promises" attached to what you bought were far far less.



> Those people who expects that they'll buy something for $1k, and get $1M, is trying to scam the seller.


 ... I think your brain is warped. 



> Uh yeah, what does that have to do with anything?
> 
> I've said the same thing for years.
> I think crypto is an interesting and useful technology.
> I don't see a valuation case that justifies the current high prices.
> I think some crypto has a nonzero value, how far from zero, depends on the technology, but some (dogecoin) are nearly worthless, while Ethereum or Cardano clearly do some "useful" things.


 ... we shall see how long you will be holding that valuable coin or crypto-whatever for....to be considered even useful, let alone of value.


----------



## MrMatt

Beaver101 said:


> ... did you not read all the sentences or you just like to take everything out of context? Of course, there's no scam if you bought a green banana and enjoyed eating it. However, it was promised to be sweet and tasty instead of being astringent, then weren't you scammed?


If you looked at it, and saw it was actually a green banana, and still bought it, that's your fault.
If you bought something sight unseen, well that's your negligence.



> ... so you are in the belief that the information given to you by a pock-faced kid about bitcoins or crypto-to be money-making, it's not a problem for you? Okay.


Of course not, I simply wouldn't believe them until I verify it somewhere else.



> And yes I've bought stock in companies that went bankrupt.
> 
> 
> 
> .. that wasn't the question.
Click to expand...

Sure it was, I was "promised" a good performing stock, and got garbage. Doesn't matter if that was a stock or a cryptocoin



> If you got exactly what you paid for, then you weren't scammed.
> 
> 
> 
> ... not until you find out or your expectation of the "promises" attached to what you bought were far far less.
Click to expand...

What? most crypto is is fully, 100% disclosed and open.
All the major crypto coins are open source, you can have all the details on EXACTLY what they are.
You can know as much as there possibly is to know about what you're purchasing, crypto is arguably the most fully disclosed thing you can purchase. The only thing you can't know is what other people will decide to do.



> I don't see a valuation case that justifies the current high prices.
> 
> 
> 
> ... we shall see how long you will be holding that valuable coin or crypto-whatever for....to be considered even useful, let alone of value.
Click to expand...

I don't hold any "valuable coin or crypto whatever", because I don't think the prices make sense. I literally said that in the post you're replying to.
I do hold a small amount of crypto to use, because dAPPS are an interesting technology.

It's clear you want to have an argument, but you're clearly not listening.
I've clearly and explicitly stated that I don't understand or agree the current high prices, I've also said that some coins do useful things and have a non-zero value.


----------



## Beaver101

> ... It's clear you want to have an argument, but you're clearly not listening. ...


 ... are you sure about that and it's not the other way around. We're 81 pages in this thread and I have yet to hear one person (other than m3s with further comments below) posting about crypto-currencies making money for them. Why's that? I mean yeah, you can buy a shiny coin and claim you got value (you get what you bought) if it pleases your eyes in that context since I can't make you see otherwise.

The only person on this forum who made money or claimed to have (and millions at that) out of crypto was m3s. Note the word "was", not "is". Why's that? 

And why on earth would anyone who made millions off the crypto-game (more like scheme) would want to pass on their "secrets" to "you=investor(?)". For one thing, I can accurately guess why they would use a public forum for passing the "secrets" on ... it's a free medium to fish out some suckers.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> And why on earth would anyone who made millions off the crypto-game (more like scheme) would want to pass on their "secrets" to "you=investor(?)". For one thing, I can accurately guess why they would use a public forum for passing the "secrets" on ... it's a free medium to fish out some suckers.


We already covered this but to beat the dead horse for the geriatric old folks yet again

There are many multi-millionaires and aspiring multi-millionaires on this forum if you go read the money diaries. I've never seen you or sags in the money forums for some reason

There are many multi-millionaires in crypto who still actively develop, trade, discuss etc. Non multi-millionaires never seem to understand because they just want to win the lottery but not work for it in the first place. If they don't understand how to achieve it in the first place of course they don't understand why people remain active when they do

Go read the money diaries of the many multi-millionaires on this forum and then ask yourself why they bother trying to help you or anyone here, and then ask why you spend 10 years here but don't actually discuss money topics. Many if you listened to the successful people we would also see you contribute some value besides arguing with people who do

I was here learning about investments long before crypto and still hold mostly non-crypto investments. I haven't seen you contribute besides backing up other low content posts

Of course this forum doesn't have many who made money in crypto - it's mostly boomer safe place here. There are many other forums


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> We already covered this but to beat the dead horse for the geriatric old folks yet again


 ... yep, we'll keep beating the dead horse dead again and again and again and ... as they keep resurrecting as scammers. You can never beat enough scammers dead. They keep resurrecting or reincarnate in some form or another.



> There are many multi-millionaires and aspiring multi-millionaires on this forum if you go read the money diaries. I've never seen you or sags in the money forums for some reason


 ... I'm not interested in reading the Money Diaries as it's 1. none of my business, 2. listen to BS braggists, and 3. primarily waste my time 'drooling' of the millions dollar signs. And do you believe anyone who made "millions" are gonna to give you a dime? I would be super-happy if one of those "millionaires" came out "publicly" and did a good indeed like "donating their wealth" to help the less fortunate. So have you heard of one from the Money Diary? In your head, there's always gold at the rainbow. Only it's not your rainbow either.



> There are many multi-millionaires in crypto who still actively develop, trade, discuss etc. Non multi-millionaires never seem to understand because they just want to win the lottery but not work for it in the first place. If they don't understand how to achieve it in the first place of course they don't understand why people remain active when they do


 ... like I said, I don't care. Maybe you could learn a lesson for a change that "money isn't everything in life" with particular emphasis of "using other people's money", aka as ripping them off.



> Go read the money diaries of the many multi-millionaires on this forum and then ask yourself why they bother trying to help you or anyone here, and then ask why you spend 10 years here but don't actually discuss money topics. Many if you listened to the successful people we would also see you contribute some value besides arguing with people who do


 ... YAWN.



> I was here learning about investments long before crypto and still hold mostly non-crypto investments. I haven't seen you contribute besides backing up other low content posts


 ... I guess you don't actually read my post as your mind is stucked on your millions of crypto-gains. From your point of view, I have "low content posts". So what do you consider "high content" posts? Let me guess - crypto-scams? Flavour of the day?



> Of course this forum doesn't have many who made money in crypto - it's mostly boomer safe place here. There are many other forums


 ... yes, there are so what are you doing here peddling to geriatric old boomer farts that's older than your grandfather? Fishing for more suckers?


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> ... yep, we'll keep beating the dead horse dead again and again and again and ... as they keep resurrecting as scammers. You can never beat enough scammers dead. They keep resurrecting or reincarnate in some form or another.


Meanwhile DOGE is pumping again now that Elon bought Twitter to save free speech

Just checked the chart and DOGE is up like 10k% since 2020. It's somehow holding up better than stocks and RE.

No wonder the geriatric boomers are so agitated. They'll be rolling in their graves when DOGE takes over


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> No wonder the geriatric boomers are so agitated. They'll be rolling in their graves when DOGE takes over


DOGE is a joke.
But so is TikTok and talk about $$$$$


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Meanwhile DOGE is pumping again now that Elon bought Twitter to save free speech
> 
> Just checked the chart and DOGE is up like 10k% since 2020. It's somehow holding up better than stocks and RE.
> 
> No wonder the geriatric boomers are so agitated. They'll be rolling in their graves when DOGE takes over


----------



## gardner

On the one hand, this is just a simple theft, but on the other hand it is just one of many exploitations of bugs in one of the core crypto technologies. I'm wondering how safe smart contracts really are. Perhaps they are being overused and considered more trustworthy than is warranted. 

Despite having been audited, there was an exploitable bug in one of Team Finance's smart contracts enabling someone to steal $14.5 million.









Team Finance suffers an exploit of $14.5M


Crypto token platform Team Finance reports a huge loss of over $14.5M during the Uniswap v2 to v3 protocol migration feature.



www.cryptonewsz.com


----------



## Covariance

m3s said:


> Fiat is not backed by any value saggy man. That's the definition of fiat money. It is worth what people believe it is worth


Actually and perhaps food for thought there is a distinction that is more than a nuance that does set a value for it. USD is the only thing the US Gov't will accept as payment for taxes. At the end of the day, there's that underneath it.


----------



## m3s

Covariance said:


> Actually and perhaps food for thought there is a distinction that is more than a nuance that does set a value for it. USD is the only thing the US Gov't will accept as payment for taxes. At the end of the day, there's that underneath it.


USD is the petrocurrency backed by the US military. Libya, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Russia, China have insisted on other currencies. This benefits the US and slowly countries are starting to realize this - especially when the USD strengthens

Switzerland has accepted taxes in several cryptocurrencies for years and they now have a booming industry of crypto innovation. The new UK PM wants to be open minded to attract innovation for the same reason. US executive order said the same by the way if you read it

By the same logic you can derive value from certain L1 cryptocurrency as tx fees are paid in the blockchain currency and there is limited block space. This requires some ability to accept that some things are new concepts and need to be understood as such.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> On the one hand, this is just a simple theft, but on the other hand it is just one of many exploitations of bugs in one of the core crypto technologies. I'm wondering how safe smart contracts really are. Perhaps they are being overused and considered more trustworthy than is warranted.
> 
> Despite having been audited, there was an exploitable bug in one of Team Finance's smart contracts enabling someone to steal $14.5 million.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Team Finance suffers an exploit of $14.5M
> 
> 
> Crypto token platform Team Finance reports a huge loss of over $14.5M during the Uniswap v2 to v3 protocol migration feature.
> 
> 
> 
> www.cryptonewsz.com


Smart contract risk is real especially for bridges and new versions

BTC is still the most secure as it doesn't have this complexity. Most smart contracts are based on solidity code using EVM ethereum virtual machine. Cardano uses functional language Haskell which is much better for financial contracts

All the exploits make smart contracts stronger. You don't want to just use random new smart contracts that are not battle tested


----------



## Gator13

m3s, do you think the crypto platforms will be able to reasonably stay ahead of the exploitations? Do you think that large platforms that have could ever face a situation where everything (the majority) is lost? Thx


----------



## m3s

Gator13 said:


> m3s, do you think the crypto platforms will be able to reasonably stay ahead of the exploitations? Do you think that large platforms that have could ever face a situation where everything (the majority) is lost? Thx


Every time there is a new exploit that exploit is closed. So it's often the new platforms and new contracts that get targeted. Mind you these are smart contracts being exploited not the blockchain

Cardano is peer-review research based (Cardano foundation is Swiss based) unlike Ethereum which is more grassroots. Ethereum has the most momentum with developers and tooling but it looks like Cardano will catch up during this cycle. The bigger companies with long term visions are going with Cardano.

Cardano already has research on quantum computing (same tech will be used to defend as attack) It will always be a cat and mouse game with exploits. Safest place for value may always be BTC


----------



## Covariance

m3s said:


> Switzerland has accepted taxes in several cryptocurrencies for years and they now have a booming industry of crypto innovation.


Quite right at the Cannon and City level in a number of areas. They have been ahead of many in this respect, and somehow find a way not to get bogged down with dogma that effects others.


----------



## sags

_Team Finance had joined a group of crypto firms that have been recently exploited this month, which includes *decentralized exchange Mango Finance which suffered a $114M exploit*, and *BNB Smart Chain, which suffered a loss of $100M*. _

Decentralized is secure.......yea, okay. The above losses are in one month.

M3s pumped all the failed defi exchanges before they took off with everyone's money........Voyager, Celsius.

He was bragging about how much he was earning on cypto lending platforms and telling people that bonds and GICs were for chumps.

Now he says he cashed out just before they crashed......not once, not twice....but numerous times.

Yea......okay.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> _Team Finance had joined a group of crypto firms that have been recently exploited this month, which includes *decentralized exchange Mango Finance which suffered a $114M exploit*, and *BNB Smart Chain, which suffered a loss of $100M*. _
> 
> Decentralized is secure.......yea, okay. The above losses are in one month.
> 
> M3s pumped all the failed defi exchanges before they took off with everyone's money........Voyager, Celsius.
> 
> He was bragging about how much he was earning on cypto lending platforms and telling people that bonds and GICs were for chumps.
> 
> Now he says he cashed out just before they crashed......not once, not twice....but numerous times.
> 
> Yea......okay.


Yes it's clearly too complicated for you to follow. This new world is too fast paced for boomers

Voyager and Celsius are centralized not decentralized. I experimented with them and earned some promos and yield there. Signs were very clear well in advance. I could post messages where I warned people well in advance and everyone withdrew. You have to keep up with news if you're trading (which you obviously do not)

You clearly think that a person can only "cash out" once. This is very flawed logic and shows that you don't actually know what you're talking about at all. I was scaling out since September 2021 which I posted here. I can post receipts if you want. You have no understanding of how slippage works on large trades, among other basic concepts

If you think bonds are 100% safe you are wrong especially in this environment. You have a 1 dimension view of things instead of understanding that risks change.


----------



## sags

MicroStrategy Earnings Stagnate as Bitcoin Weighs on Assets


MicroStrategy published third-quarter financial results which show the company’s revenue has been stagnating, coming in under expectations.




beincrypto.com


----------



## m3s

If Microstrategy survives yolo'ing and leveraging its entire balance sheet into BTC

What does that say about GM? How poorly managed does a giant like GM have to be to go bankrupt during a predictable recession?

Maybe GM was just soaking the taxpayers to help them pay to migrate off shore


----------



## sags

Yea.......and they cut the cost of living benefits for GM retirees, at the demands of sleazy Stephen Harper. They left widows and orphans out to dry.

We should be getting $500 more a month pension today from cola increases the past 15 years.

The Unifor union finally sacked the useless "corporate apologist" Jerry Dias and has a female President who pledges to kick butt and take names.

Go get em Lana.....


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Yea.......and they cut the cost of living benefits for GM retirees, at the demands of sleazy Stephen Harper. They left widows and orphans out to dry.


GM went bankrupt, and the pension doesn't have the funds to fulfill their promises.
The union let GM get away with underfunding the pension plan, they didn't stand up for workers.

Stephen Harper did little more than offer a bit of money to keep jobs in Canada. 



> We should be getting $500 more a month pension today from cola increases the past 15 years.


From who?
Really, you going to go knocking on doors of GM customers telling them you need more money because GM went bankrupt?



> The Unifor union finally sacked the useless "corporate apologist" Jerry Dias and has a female President who pledges to kick butt and take names.
> 
> Go get em Lana.....


It's well known that UNIFOR and most union "leadership" is in it for themselves.


----------



## sags

Harper cut pension funding requirements. Everybody knows how bad he was for working people.

Garth Turner was Harper's Minister of Revenue and even he says Harper was a spite filled dick.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Harper cut pension funding requirements. Everybody knows how bad he was for working people.
> 
> Garth Turner was Harper's Minister of Revenue and even he says Harper was a spite filled dick.


So is Trudeau, so was Chretien.. lots of them are not very nice.
The reason pension funding requirements were lowered is because pensions are too expensive to fund.


----------



## Covariance

Present Value of a pension funds assets should equal the present value of its liabilities. If it doesn't then anyone counting on it should carefully assess whether they think the company will step in and fill the hole. 

Period. It's no one else's responsibility.


----------



## MrMatt

Covariance said:


> Present Value of a pension funds assets should equal the present value of its liabilities. If it doesn't then anyone counting on it should carefully assess whether they think the company will step in and fill the hole.
> 
> Period. It's no one else's responsibility.


Yup, and the union let them underfund it for years. They failed to protect the workers.


----------



## londoncalling

I know in many instances, union contracts will negotiate an increase to total package. The members then get to vote on how that total is divvied up amongst pension, health and welfare benefits and wage. Others have the pension amount as a static percentage of total package and that rarely shifts from contract to contract. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. DB Pensions can become underfunded many ways. A few include:

1)Prolonged poor market performance. 
2) Substantial increases to payouts approved by the trustees even though the fund cannot afford it. 
3) Too many plan members taking a commuted value reducing the total amount in the fund to be invested
4) Significant failure to forecast future contributions and earnings.

Although I sympathize with anyone who was depending on a DB plan that became mismanaged or underfunded. However, it is not for the tax payer to bail out private pensions when that happens. At times I questioned whether it was unwise to leave my employer that offered a great DB plan realizing the amount my DB pension would be had I stayed. I left a DB pension twice in my career. I do think there is some safety in not having all your eggs in one basket. It is also why I chose to save additonal funds for my retirement in case the worst happens. Many rely only on CPP and their pension plans. In most cases this should be enough.


----------



## sags

The government changed the laws regarding pension status funding.

Companies can no longer defer paying their contribution into the pension plans, as they did in the past. (declaring themselves pension holidays)

They can no longer raid the surplus as they did in the past. (claiming since they were responsible for shortfalls they were entitled to the surpluses)

Ontario has a pension guarantee plan to which registered pension plans contribute. It guarantees the first $1,000 of pension benefits in case of a shortfall.

Pensions will not go broke. At worst they may have to reduce benefits to retirees or raise contributions to workers.

Prior to the pandemic, pension plans were fully funded and many had surplus funds.

The fear of not collecting a pension benefit is greatly overblown. It used to rarely happen but changes were made and it can't happen anymore.

Government regulators monitor pension funding closely now.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The fear of not collecting a pension benefit is greatly overblown. It used to rarely happen but changes were made and it can't happen anymore.
> 
> Government regulators monitor pension funding closely now.


For boomers but not for millennials and younger

Inflation is not good for pensions at all. Unless they are indexed to inflation which is absolutely unsustainable

Only boomers have indexed pensions and capped expenses at 2.5%


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Yup, and the union let them underfund it for years. They failed to protect the workers.


Wrong.......the unions fought against deferrals and companies claiming surpluses of pension plan contributions but were overruled in courts because it was allowed under the law.

A couple of high profile pension failures convinced the government to change the laws.


----------



## MrMatt

MrMatt said:


> Yup, and the union let them underfund it for years. They failed to protect the workers.





sags said:


> Wrong.......the unions fought against deferrals and companies claiming surpluses of pension plan contributions but were overruled in courts because it was allowed under the law.
> 
> A couple of high profile pension failures convinced the government to change the laws.


No, they let them underfund it.
Note I'm not saying they didn't "fight", but at the end it still happened.
Are you saying that years of pension shortfalls and contract negotiations the union consistently ensured a properly funded pension was in the agreement, and it still failed?

No, the union pushed for other stuff, not basic things like ensuring a fully funded pension/benefits.
They failed to protect workers.

Now people like you are supporting the same style over substance leadership in government.
They promise big, and make proud stands, but they've forgotten their basic responsibilities.


----------



## sags

Unions can't negotiate away Federal and Provincial laws.

The union did what they could in the courts and public awareness campaigns, but people don't care unless they are collecting the pensions.

There is a lot of pension envy, and it is justified. The solution is to advocate for their own pensions rather than taking them from other people.

The private HOOPP plan, and the public CPP are good examples of successful DB pension plans.


----------



## Covariance

sags said:


> There is a lot of pension envy, and it is justified. The solution is to advocate for their own pensions rather than taking them from other people.


My point, upthread, is merely an extension of your own. If people are to advocate for their own pension, they should similarly take responsibility for the oversight of the soundness of their own pension.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> Unions can't negotiate away Federal and Provincial laws.
> 
> The union did what they could in the courts and public awareness campaigns, but people don't care unless they are collecting the pensions.
> 
> There is a lot of pension envy, and it is justified. The solution is to advocate for their own pensions rather than taking them from other people.
> 
> The private HOOPP plan, and the public CPP are good examples of successful DB pension plans.


Canadian pension laws set out a minimum funding level. Companies are allowed to fund their pensions to a higher level.

What law would Unifor and GM have been breaking to insist on having a properly funded pension?

They wouldn't have negotiated away any laws.


----------



## sags

Covariance said:


> My point, upthread, is merely an extension of your own. If people are to advocate for their own pension, they should similarly take responsibility for the oversight of the soundness of their own pension.


Agreed and the government should hold companies to the agreed funding of the pensions.

Allowing the companies to declare themselves a "pension holiday" was a betrayal of the workers.

I would imagine there would be a righteous uproar if the government was allowed to scoop surplus from the CPP.


----------



## sags

MrMatt said:


> Canadian pension laws set out a minimum funding level. Companies are allowed to fund their pensions to a higher level.
> 
> What law would Unifor and GM have been breaking to insist on having a properly funded pension?
> 
> They wouldn't have negotiated away any laws.


The funding requirements were changed and governments made it easier for companies to take pension holidays and ignore under funded status.

Unions complained when the laws were changed to allow it to happen, but the companies were deemed "too big to fail" and it was allowed.

Laws were changed after the problems and the situation is much different today. 

Pensions today have never been more closely watched and regulated.


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> The funding requirements were changed and governments made it easier for companies to take pension holidays and ignore underfunding.
> 
> Laws were changed and the situation is much different today. Pensions today have never been more closely watched and regulated.


But no laws were negotiated away.
The union just failed to do their job.


----------



## sags

The UK almost repeated the same mistake .....with "too big to fail" mentality by politicians.

It is the same mentality they had for big banks prior to the 2008 financial crisis.









Bank of England says pension funds were hours from disaster before it intervened


The Bank of England told lawmakers on Wednesday that a number of pension funds were hours from collapse when it decided to intervene in the U.K. long-dated bond market last week.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## sags

_*In 1992, Bob Rae’s NDP passed Pension Benefit Act Regulation 5.1; the “Too Big to Fail” Legislation.* It allowed companies with pension funds in excess of $500 million to elect to be treated as a “qualifying plan”. This legislation allowed qualifying companies to fund their pension plan on an ongoing basis permitting them to significantly reduce their pension plan contributions and, predictably, their wind up ratios declined. 

*UNIFOR, and before it CAW and USW, did not make the series of poor decisions to under fund the Defined Benefit pension plan at General Motors. *_









OTF President Mike Foulds: the one percent is responsible | Ontario Teachers' Federation






www.otffeo.on.ca


----------



## MrMatt

sags said:


> _*In 1992, Bob Rae’s NDP passed Pension Benefit Act Regulation 5.1; the “Too Big to Fail” Legislation.* It allowed companies with pension funds in excess of $500 million to elect to be treated as a “qualifying plan”. This legislation allowed qualifying companies to fund their pension plan on an ongoing basis permitting them to significantly reduce their pension plan contributions and, predictably, their wind up ratios declined.
> 
> *UNIFOR, and before it CAW and USW, did not make the series of poor decisions to under fund the Defined Benefit pension plan at General Motors. *_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> OTF President Mike Foulds: the one percent is responsible | Ontario Teachers' Federation
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.otffeo.on.ca


1. To be fair the NDP is even less economically credible than the Liberals
2. Unifor and before it the CAW DID allow GM to underfund the pension plan, for decades, they had more than enough opportunity to address this issue, and chose not to.

It's interesting that despite the leftie government, and unions both dropping the ball on this, you seem to want to blame Stephen Harper, who literally has NO power over provincial law anyway.


----------



## sags

Last November Bitcoin was $68k.

One year later it is $20k.

One year from now it will be $0k.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Last November Bitcoin was $68k.
> 
> One year later it is $20k.
> 
> One year from now it will be $0k.


Nice cherry picked data

BTC is $20k USD and you think it's dead.. yet again. Let's say that again.. BTC is worth $30k CAD after 10 years... 100x over a decade

It was worth $3-10k if you zoom out one more year. saggy brains clearly in decline with age


----------



## sags

Go back far enough and almost all stocks look good. Bitcoin started at 8 cents so rising to 80 cents represented a huge gain.

Does looking good years ago make ARKK a good investment today ? I doubt most investors would say it does.

Most investors fall into the…what have you done for me lately camp.

Year over year results are often quoted.

The trend is not Bitcoin or cryptos friend.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Most investors fall into the…what have you done for me lately camp.


You aren't an investor sags. Your signal to noise ratio is so absurd you actually provide negative value

JP Morgan recently did its first DeFi transaction on chain. BYN Mellon, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs are all adding crypto capabilities. Oh and don't forget Visa/Mastercard

They convince you to sell why they are quietly buying saggy. You have no concept or experience with this stuff at all


----------



## sags

The banks will provide any service to their clients they can make money on.

If enough people want to trade in sea shells, they would accommodate it for a fee.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan said that he thinks crypto is crap, but the bank will provide for clients who want to trade in it.


----------



## sags

You are always going on about Web 3....but the reality is that it is just a fantasy for indisputable reasons.





__





Web3 is Bullshit


Personal Blog




www.stephendiehl.com


----------



## gardner

sags said:


> indisputable reason


I dispute that!


----------



## sags

Sorry.......the time limit for disputes has expired.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan *said* that he thinks crypto is crap, but the bank will provide for clients who want to trade in it.


JP Morgan is using DeFi directly now. That's not for retail saggy but I know you don't understand

Jamie Dimons will talk things down while they are buying, then talk it up when they are selling. It's the oldest trick in the book sags. CNBC is basically to pump exit liquidity and create panic selling for the banks. Meanwhile they throw in some entertainment to sell you metamucil ads

Pay attention to actions not words


----------



## sags

Jamie Dimon is a banker magician who creates real money out of thin air.

He would sell you the Brooklyn Bridge if he can make a buck on it.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Jamie Dimon is a banker magician who creates real money out of thin air.
> 
> He would sell you the Brooklyn Bridge if he can make a buck on it.


And yet you believe him when he *said* he thinks crypto is crap (your sophisticated take)

Meanwhile JP Moragn is not only took custody of digital assets but is now (very recently) using DeFi directly for themselves

It doesn't take much intelligence to figure out what's going on here sags. Watch actions not words


----------



## Gator13

sags said:


> Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan said that he thinks crypto is crap, but the bank will provide for clients who want to trade in it.





sags said:


> Jamie Dimon is a banker magician who creates real money out of thin air.
> 
> He would sell you the Brooklyn Bridge if he can make a buck on it.


Sags, m3s called this one. You need to sort things out with yourself. LOL


----------



## sags

Nah...Dimon still says crypto is a "decentralized ponzi scheme".

But he has no problem accepting fees to let his bank customers trade in it.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Nah...Dimon still says crypto is a "decentralized ponzi scheme".
> 
> But he has no problem accepting fees to let his bank customers trade in it.


Everything is a ponzi scheme sags

Pensions are funded by new people at the bottom of the pyramid. You can't sell real estate for more than you bought without new people

Everything relies on population growth, GDP growth etc


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> Everything relies on population growth, GDP growth etc


Yes and I wonder what will happen in 50-100 years. That's soon enough.


----------



## m3s

Lynn is probably my favourite economic commentator nowadays. Maybe its the engineering background


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590063257158811648

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590067891436933120


----------



## Faramir

m3s said:


> And yet you believe him when he *said* he thinks crypto is crap (your sophisticated take)
> 
> Meanwhile JP Moragn is not only took custody of digital assets but is now (very recently) using DeFi directly for themselves
> 
> It doesn't take much intelligence to figure out what's going on here sags. Watch actions not words


Yeah I don't trust Dimon. Didn't his firm hold mortgage tranches that the firm then bet against?


----------



## m3s

Faramir said:


> Yeah I don't trust Dimon. Didn't his firm hold mortgage tranches that the firm then bet against?


No clue

But it's pretty standard for big finance to play these games

Say one thing while doing the opposite


----------



## m3s

Oh snap

Somebody remind these amateurs "not your keys, not your crypto" 

FTX was the largest donor to Joe Biden too.. FTX arena in Miami


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590116247827406848


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Everything is a ponzi scheme sags
> 
> Pensions are funded by new people at the bottom of the pyramid. You can't sell real estate for more than you bought without new people
> 
> Everything relies on population growth, GDP growth etc


Quite simply, no.

Lets say I make a hard drive, it holds 40MB, then I develop new technology, and it holds 40GB, then 4TB, all with basically the same raw materials.

I've created something significantly more valuable, at roughly the same cost.
It isn't all money shuffling.

If I plant a tree and grow an apple, I created new value.

You can take a chunk of land and add a house, then it's more valuable, no new people required.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> If I plant a tree and grow an apple, I created new value.
> 
> You can take a chunk of land and add a house, then it's more valuable, no new people required.


I grew up on an apple orchard and it doesn't work like this

We can barely give the leftover apples away to deer hunters. Planting more trees does not create more value unless there are people who will exchange value for apples. We can turn them into something like apple cider but again the demand is not infinitely scalable without more people to buy...

Econ 101 supply and demand. If you don't believe me look up government cheese. The US government bought sh!tonnes of cheese and stored it underground to stabilize the price. Like Canada does with maple syrup but apple don't store that well. Very basic stuff to be honest I know you're smarter than this.

Demand for apples is based on population growth = ponzi


----------



## m3s

There goes Joe Biden's biggest donor


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590109200671469568


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I grew up on an apple orchard and it doesn't work like this
> 
> We can barely give the leftover apples away to deer hunters. Planting more trees does not create more value unless there are people who will exchange value for apples. We can turn them into something like apple cider but again the demand is not infinitely scalable without more people to buy...
> 
> Econ 101 supply and demand. If you don't believe me look up government cheese. The US government bought sh!tonnes of cheese and stored it underground to stabilize the price. Like Canada does with maple syrup but apple don't store that well. Very basic stuff to be honest I know you're smarter than this.
> 
> Demand for apples is based on population growth = ponzi


I buy a few lbs every week for my family.
Our population growth has been zero for over a decade.

If you grew up on an apple orchard, you know that you sell apples.
You actually create something of value, and that is how you make money.

I'm curious what your definition of a ponzi scheme is.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I buy a few lbs every week for my family.
> Our population growth has been zero for over a decade.
> 
> If you grew up on an apple orchard, you know that you sell apples.
> You actually create something of value, and that is how you make money.
> 
> I'm curious what your definition of a ponzi scheme is.


That explains nothing matt. The supply of everything is based on the demand because the market can only support so much. We don't plant trees unless there are people to but them. Bring in immigrants and we plant more trees..

You can make whatever TB hard drive or smartphone in your other example but it is still only worth what the demand is for it. You can't sell 1000 hard drives in a desert matt. I'm surprised you are still hung up on this because we already covered the exact same thing.

My response to ponzi scheme was to sags calling things ponzi that he doesn't understand. Again most language is not used literally and it's clear sags isn't using textbook definitions here


----------



## sags

LOL........Friedman was the guy who was going to save all the bankrupt crypto companies and the crypto world.

Bitcoin price is getting slaughtered. It is barely holding above $18,000. I predicted the next leg would be down to $15K and it looks like that is underway.

Interesting the US government is one of the largest holders of bitcoins from seizures. They are one of the largest bitcoin "whales" with $4.4 billion in bitcoins.

As the market drops.....they could put their 215,000 bitcoins on the market and totally evaporate the price.

It would be a really easy way to terminate crypto markets without the bother of passing more regulations.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> LOL........Friedman was the guy who was going to save all the bankrupt crypto companies and the crypto world.


No he was acquiring centralized exchanges. He is largely considered an enemy by the crypto world. CNBC has steered you wrong as usual



sags said:


> It would be a really easy way to terminate crypto markets without the bother of passing more regulations.


What would is take to for the US government to terminate GM? Nothing it bankrupted itself as poor quality companies like FTX do

BTC could easily go to 10-12k. Pretty much everyone and their dog has predicted this all year. $10k USD is still a lot of money for a bit coin if you remember $100 for a bit coin was outrageous not so long ago

Did you short it? Of course not. Actions not words sags. You bought it at $55K USD ($75k CAD)


----------



## sags

The final stage blowout of bitcoins will come when it reaches the panic capitulation price, which will likely be 10 - 15k when whales like Microstrategy get margin calls.

Hundreds of thousands will get dumped and it will be a race to zero.

Coinbase and Grayscale are also wobbly.


----------



## sags

I wouldn’t put any money into these sketchy exchanges or other crypto scams even to short bitcoins.

Real money stored there goes poof along with the magical internet money.

Nothing in crypto is trustworthy.

I will put up my predictions on this thread against anyone else.


----------



## sags

FTX isn’t a poor quality company.

It is an outright scam when 98% of the cash is gone and replaced by worthless tokens.

FTX founder had the crypto pumpers fooled even after he publicly said crypto was a Ponzi scheme in interviews.

He openly told them and they still didn’t believe him.


----------



## sags

Lots of discussion about the crypto debacle on CNBC today. Exchange owners, investors and crypto analysts are all on giving their opinions.

The problem is that FTX is highly leveraged and it is impacting public markets.

Most lenders to FTX say they expect to lose everything and customers will get back pennies on the dollar. They claim they were lied to by SBF owner of FTX.

Michael Saylor of Microsoft bought 130,000 bitcoins at a cost of $30K each that are now priced at $17K.

His purchases are highly leveraged at interest rates as high as 6%.

*He will be a guest on CNBC at 10 am tomorrow morning.*

Lots of talk about regulation, but it is too late for that now. Nobody wants to be the lender of last resort......which FTX was supposed to be.

Interesting story of greed overshadowing common sense.






MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings Chart & Purchase History


Learn how much bitcoin MicroStrategy owns in 2022, the company's bitcoin purchase history, revenue, profits, users, and much more.




buybitcoinworldwide.com













Binance's rescue of FTX shows no crypto company is 'too big to fail,' experts say


Despite FTX being the fourth-biggest crypto exchange, the company wasn't immune from the downturn in digital assets.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## sags

The Ontario Teachers Pension Plan has investment in the FTX platform. They won't reveal how much they have invested.

What are pension plans doing investing in sketchy crypto ?









Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan faces a hit on investment in crypto trading platform FTX


The situation also calls into question FTX’s plans to officially launch its business in Canada by acquiring Calgary-based Bitvo Inc.




www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## sags

Most of FTX legal and compliance team quit Tuesday night.

A possible takeover by Binance exchange looks unlikely as they say the liability gap is in the billions of dollars.



https://www.semafor.com/article/11/09/2022/ftx-legal-and-compliance-teams-quit


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The Ontario Teachers Pension Plan has investment in the FTX platform. They won't reveal how much they have invested.
> 
> What are pension plans doing investing in sketchy crypto ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan faces a hit on investment in crypto trading platform FTX
> 
> 
> The situation also calls into question FTX’s plans to officially launch its business in Canada by acquiring Calgary-based Bitvo Inc.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


It's not crypto it's a centralized exchange between fiat and crypto

SBF was by far one of the biggest donor to Joe Biden's campaign and was in bed with the regulators

Crypto world was not happy and basically dumped them


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Michael Saylor of Microsoft bought 130,000 bitcoins at a cost of $30K each that are now priced at $17K.
> 
> His purchases are highly leveraged at interest rates as high as 6%.
> 
> *He will be a guest on CNBC at 10 am tomorrow morning.*


Michael Saylor of microstrategy not microsoft sags

BTC is not the same as FTX at all. This only reinforces that BTC is the only real decentralized network and that's what Saylor preaches

FTX is not decentralized at all it is centralized by definition (centralized exchange)


----------



## nathan79

sags said:


> The Ontario Teachers Pension Plan has investment in the FTX platform. They won't reveal how much they have invested.
> 
> What are pension plans doing investing in sketchy crypto ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan faces a hit on investment in crypto trading platform FTX
> 
> 
> The situation also calls into question FTX’s plans to officially launch its business in Canada by acquiring Calgary-based Bitvo Inc.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


Sounds like it's just one of many similar investments.



https://www.otpp.com/en-ca/about-us/news-and-insights/2021/teachers-innovation-platform-invests-in-ftx/


_
TIP focuses on growth equity and venture capital investments in companies, such as FTX, that are using technology to shape future markets. _

The bigger question is why they would choose FTX out of all the possible ways they could have invested in the space.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I wouldn’t put any money into these sketchy exchanges or other crypto scams even to short bitcoins.
> 
> Real money stored there goes poof along with the magical internet money.
> 
> Nothing in crypto is trustworthy.
> 
> *I will put up my predictions on this thread against anyone else.*


You bought BTC at $55k ($75k CAD) and you posted that in this thread when your beloved CNBC was pumping everything

Your "predictions" are worthless because you bought at the top at the exact same time I was starting to scale out. CNBC is the biggest pump and dump scam network selling viagra and metamucil ads to boomers. Everyone younger knows this

Actions not words saggy man


----------



## sags

A lot of the so called decentralized crypto is tied to FTX. There is a lot to unwind here and the crypto universe may be collapsing around it.

Why is Bitcoin collapsing ? It is down to the 16k level now ?

I bought shared in the Bitcoin etf and dumped them as soon as they started losing money.

Anyone who hodl down from $70k is an idiot.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> A lot of the so called decentralized crypto is tied to FTX. There is a lot to unwind here and the crypto universe may be collapsing around it.
> 
> Why is Bitcoin collapsing ? It is down to the 16k level now ?


You don't understand the very basics of how markets works

Uncertainty and liquidity crisis always creates a lot of volatility. You bought the top when CNBC was cheering everyone on and now you are screaming sell because CNBC is selling the panic. You bought the top and sold immediately - so you didn't understand what you were buying at all and had 0 conviction. This is what CNBC trading does to people. You end up selling on Mar 12 2020 when I was loading up the truck

Everything is down because of monetary tightening sags. I'd think watching CNBC all day would at least explain the very basics of how liquidity impacts markets


----------



## sags

The posts on this thread show who was right and who was wrong.

You didn’t listen but maybe someone else did and it saved them money.

How much have you lost in crypto ?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The posts on this thread show who was right and who was wrong.


Clearly.

I was buying the panic in 2020 and made a fortune (prices today are still up 10x from Mar 2020..). I was selling in 2021 when you were buying the top with no conviction like a moonboi. Now you are screaming sell again during the panic. See the pattern? I'm moving overseas to retire. You are clueless

Actions not words saggy


----------



## MrMatt

nathan79 said:


> The bigger question is why they would choose FTX out of all the possible ways they could have invested in the space.


There are lots of smaller players who aren't out trolling for capital. 
Many of the good ones can be very selective about who they allow to invest in them.

Big flashy marketting machines are sucking up all this easy capital.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Big flashy marketting machines are sucking up all this easy capital.


FTX arena in miami, Tom Brady, superbowl commericial

FTX is also heavily connected to Solana which is basically a hyped centralized database pretending to be a blockchain (shuts down regularly) SBF was getting way to close to regulators and manipulating them because they don't know what they're doing by donating and lobbying to Sleepy Joe. Sadly this is how the boomer US system works

Clearing out these VC chains is very good for the space


----------



## sags

Binance walked away from any deal stating there is too much missing money and now the regulators are involved.

SBF removed some tweets he had posted telling FTX customers and investors their capital was safe.

He knew it wasn't true and the tweets were evidence of fraud. SBF is gong to be sued into oblivion.

The contagion goes far beyond the venture capitalists and crypto itself into financial and stock markets.

This could be the black swan event that ends cryptomania. This is huge news being covered on all financial media and news networks.

As the bitcoin price continues to decline, it will trigger a panic sell capitulation at some point and bitcoin will become worthless very quickly.

All other crypto will be dragged down as well. Confidence and trust have exited the crypto space.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> This could be the black swan event that ends cryptomania. This is huge news being covered on all financial media and news networks.


lol saggy

As already explained notice how your beloved "financial" media and "news" network pumped the highs and now scream panic and sell the lows. They are not your friend and you won't make any money watching that crap

This won't end anything. Trash companies like FTX and GM fail all the time (unless the government bails them out)


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590452245417832448


----------



## sags




----------



## sags

Contagion......









Crypto.com Suspends USDT and USDC Deposits on the Solana Blockchain


In an email sent to users, Crypto.com suspends USDT and USDC deposits and withdrawals on the Solana blockchain




watcher.guru


----------



## sags

Bitcoin now down in the 15K range.

I predicted it would fall to $15K before pausing and bouncing around for awhile, before it heads down another $5k leg......but we are approaching panic liquidation levels where investors fear the price will go to zero and they will lose everything. 

They sell for whatever they can get, so there may not be a pause at $15k for long.

Watch the bitcoin price tumble here.



Bitcoin Ticker - Tick by tick - Real time updates


----------



## MrBlackhill

Crypto hasn't crashed yet...
Stocks haven't crashed yet...
Inflation is still high...
Unemployment rate is still low...
Rates can still be increased...

I'm keeping my cash liquid to buy the panic in 2023.

PS: Market timing is bad... Oh, I'm not market timing... Let's say I'm holding cash as an emergency fund... lol!


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> I predicted it would fall to $15K before pausing and bouncing around for awhile, before it heads down another $5k leg......but we are approaching panic liquidation levels where investors fear the price will go to zero and they will lose everything.


Why would it bounce around at $15k. Below the previous cycle ATH there's no support all the way down to 12k.

Anyways what good are your predictions if you aren't shorting it? Nobody can call the bottom and you won't beat the whales when they decide to buy. Best you can do is average in on the way down. But you think it's going to zero yet not shorting it 🤡

So why obsess over it when you don't trade it. I made 5 figures today and I don't have to make any "predictions" it's just automatic


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Crypto hasn't crashed yet...
> Stocks haven't crashed yet...
> Inflation is still high...
> Unemployment rate is still low...
> Rates can still be increased...
> 
> I'm keeping my cash liquid to buy the panic in 2023.
> 
> PS: Market timing is bad... Oh, I'm not market timing... Let's say I'm holding cash as an emergency fund... lol!


Be ready for when JPow pivots

Lots of firing happening in the USA right now

Yet stocks and crypto are still well above 2020 prices


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Be ready for when JPow pivots
> 
> Lots of firing happening in the USA right now
> 
> Yet stocks and crypto are still well above 2020 prices


Is it firing in tech, or in the wider industry?

Also it matters the job function and what those people actually did, there might be quite a few staff of marginal utility, particularly in a larger company.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Is it firing in tech, or in the wider industry?
> 
> Also it matters the job function and what those people actually did, there might be quite a few staff of marginal utility, particularly in a larger company.


You didn't hear Meta fired 11,000 people today?

Small business is failing everywhere now that financial aid is gone

This will start to impact everything


----------



## m3s

CNN in 2021

"If you have a job today, chances have never been better that *you can keep it as long as you want*" “Employers are hanging onto workers for dear life”

What a bunch of clowns 🤡 It was just the QE





__





Loading…






www.cnn.com


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> You didn't hear Meta fired 11,000 people today?
> 
> Small business is failing everywhere now that financial aid is gone
> 
> This will start to impact everything


I'm not concerned with trimming excess tech workers.

Yes, we're on the way to a recession.


----------



## gardner

Looks like Tether's been struggling to keep its peg in the last few hours. It's only 0.3 cents off so far, but things could get interesting.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Looks like Tether's been struggling to keep its peg in the last few hours. It's only 0.3 cents off so far, but things could get interesting.


Rumour is the SBF is shorting USDT. Been too busy lately to track all the rumours I'll wait for the dust to settle

Another rumour is that El Salvador's BTC was held on FTX centralized exchange which just went bankrupt. SBF donated $800M to Joe Biden and had very close connections to Senator Warren who hated crypto. Coincidence?

It all comes back to "Not your keys, not your crypto" Don't store a decentralized asset on a centralized exchange

edit: El Salvador rumour was just maintream media spreading unfounded bs as usual (I'll trust CZ over msm)


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590698521195610113


----------



## m3s

SBF speaks


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590709166515310593


----------



## MrBlackhill

It's funny how people nowadays say "I'm sorry, I was wrong" and they are viewed as heroes of humility...

Shopify fires 10% of its employees: "I'm sorry, I was wrong"
Facebook fires 13% of its employees: "I'm sorry, I was wrong"
FTX goes bankrupt: "I'm sorry, I should've done better"

Sure, saying sorry is better than not saying anything at all, but it's pretty laughable when you think about it for two seconds.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> It's funny how people nowadays say "I'm sorry, I was wrong" and they are viewed as heroes of humility...
> 
> Shopify fires 10% of its employees: "I'm sorry, I was wrong"
> Facebook fires 13% of its employees: "I'm sorry, I was wrong"
> FTX goes bankrupt: "I'm sorry, I should've done better"
> 
> Sure, saying sorry is better than not saying anything at all, but it's pretty laughable when you think about it for two seconds.


It's called accountability

The previous boomer generation operated on plausible denial like Bill Clinton "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" said like a complete stone faced robot. Even though everyone knows he was lying the internet wasn't as powerful as it is today in connecting the dots. The government operated with this mindset until recently

Even Gen. McKenzie had to apologize for striking an innocent car following the withdrawal in Afghanistan. The internet already knew the truth because OS int is so powerful today









Pentagon reverses itself, calls deadly Kabul strike an error


WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon retreated from its defense of a drone strike that killed multiple civilians in Afghanistan last month, announcing Friday that a review revealed that only civilians were killed in the attack, not an Islamic State extremist as first believed.




apnews.com




.

"For days after the Aug. 29 strike, *Pentagon officials asserted that it had been conducted correctly, despite 10 civilians being killed, including seven children.* News organizations later raised doubts about that version of events, reporting that the driver of the targeted vehicle was a longtime employee at an American humanitarian organization and citing an absence of evidence to support the Pentagon’s assertion that the vehicle contained explosives."

Welcome to the post-boomer world of accountability


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> It's called accountability


Saying "I'm sorry, I was wrong" is no accountability. It's so easy to say those words.

They are words, not actions. There's no commitment to improvement.


----------



## m3s

MrBlackhill said:


> Saying "I'm sorry, I was wrong" is no accountability. It's so easy to say those words.
> 
> They are words, not actions.


I guess you didn't read the rest of the thread.

Twitter is a bit weird but he listed many actions they're taking below in the thread

But I do agree watch for "actions not words" Don't be a saggy boomer


----------



## Beaver101

MrBlackhill said:


> It's funny how people nowadays say *"I'm sorry, I was wrong" and they are viewed as heroes of humility...*
> 
> Shopify fires 10% of its employees: "I'm sorry, I was wrong"
> Facebook fires 13% of its employees: "I'm sorry, I was wrong"
> FTX goes bankrupt: "I'm sorry, I should've done better"
> 
> Sure, saying sorry is better than not saying anything at all, but it's pretty laughable when you think about it for two seconds.


 ... so in "actuality (these days), "I'm sorry" means "I'm NOT sorry". And "I was wrong" means "tough for you, SAP". Ie. these humility "heros" are nothing short of being "scammers, if not bullies".


----------



## Beaver101

MrBlackhill said:


> Saying "I'm sorry, I was wrong" is no accountability. It's so easy to say those words.
> 
> They are words, *not actions.* There's no commitment to improvement.


 ... these days aka current gens' "moral compass" aka what's that?

I'm not sure why they have that word in the old (boomers') dictionary even.

Mind you, these beyond-cheap word(s) didn't just start this year - been like that in the past decade. Hear it all the time. 

The question becomes "are you "really, truly, absolutely, sincerely" sorry? Or is it more like you're BS saying that which happens 99.5% of the times.


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> I guess you didn't read the rest of the thread.
> 
> Twitter is a bit weird but he listed many actions they're taking below in the thread
> 
> But I do agree watch for "actions not words" Don't be a saggy boomer


Oh ok, I don't have Twitter so I didn't notice there were more posts. Ok, he did a better communication job than Shopify and Facebook for instance, so I'll give him that.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> ... these days aka current gens' "moral compass". What's that? I'm not sure why they have that word in the old (boomers') dictionary even.


Boomers have no moral compass

Just look at the Catholic residential schools. How hard was it to get the Catholics to even acknowledge let alone apologize for anything

Now look at the Catholics actions instead of their words - building fancy churches instead of paying what the promised to victims


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Boomers have no moral compass
> 
> Just look at the Catholic residential schools. How hard was it to get the Catholics to even acknowledge let alone apologize for anything
> 
> Now look at the Catholics actions instead of their words - building fancy churches instead of paying what the promised to victims


 ... like you "really" fvck-care about Catholic residential schools. If you've a problem with that, go talk to Trudeau and ask if he's a boomer - without the moral compass.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Boomers have no moral compass
> 
> Just look at the Catholic residential schools. How hard was it to get the Catholics to even acknowledge let alone apologize for anything
> 
> Now look at the Catholics actions instead of their words - building fancy churches instead of paying what the promised to victims


Really?
Millenials were literally taught this in High School and merrily went on their way ignoring it too.
If anything, your example shows everyone is equally flawed in this aspect.

Even today, with forced sterilization of "undesirables" there is very little outcry.


----------



## sags

SBF is sorry ?......like all criminals he is sorry he got caught. 

He is facing a lot of investigation and the Bernie Madoff treatment.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> SBF is sorry ?......like all criminals he is sorry he got caught.
> 
> He is facing a lot of investigation and the Bernie Madoff treatment.


If he doesn't go to jail the crypto world will livid.

People expect he won't go to jail considering he donated $800M to Sleepy Joe and is close friends with Senator Warren presidential candidate. The only crypto people who go to jail were for using dark net or coding mixers that make it harder for government to track

SEC claims their job is to protect the investor but their actions say otherwise. They are operating on the boomer modus operandi of saying one thing and doing the opposite.


----------



## sags

Anyone interested in crypto should watch the videos on Youtube produced by Coffeezilla.

The videos are very well done and explain the current crypto environment in easy to understand format.

Crypto is a criminal's paradise and the world regulators let it go on for too long. There is a lot of money and contagion to deal with now.

Tether will likely be the next one to fall............and it will be a market shaking collapse that makes FTX look mild by comparison.

Tether is tied to a lot of crypto, including bitcoins and if it collapses the whole house comes down with it.

Watch this video about Tether and make up your own mind. Don't listen to anyone who pumps crypto. They have low morals and earn from pumping.


----------



## sags

FTX popped higher n the US inflation news. People who invest in crypto are brain dead.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Anyone interested in crypto should watch the videos on Youtube produced by Coffeezilla.
> 
> The videos are very well done and explain the current crypto environment in easy to understand format.
> 
> Crypto is a criminal's paradise and the world regulators let it go on for too long. There is a lot of money and contagion to deal with now.
> 
> Tether will likely be the next one to fall............and it will be a market shaking collapse that makes FTX look mild by comparison.
> 
> Tether is tied to a lot of crypto, including bitcoins and if it collapses the whole house comes down with it.
> 
> Watch this video about Tether and make up your own mind. Don't listen to anyone who pumps crypto. They have low morals and earn from pumping.


Very old news in crypto world

USDC/BUSD has already become the de facto trading pair on respectable exchanges. USDT does still have as much market cap as USDC/BUSD combined

USDT is used a lot in Asia and is probably connected to Chinese contagion risk. Which is why I sold off in 2021 before the peak


----------



## sags

Reports are that SBF shopped around for a country with the least penalties for illegal financial crimes. He then spent $200 million of customer money to buy condos in a luxury building for himself and his closest employees. There is NO doubt that he illegally co-mingled funds, spent customer funds, and lied to investors and regulators.

SBF was the crypto saviour.........saying he would save Voyager and other bankrupt apps, but in the end they are all going down.

FTX sponsored sports arenas and teams. Miami said they have not received payments for their arena. The contagion will be wide.


----------



## sags

m3s said:


> Very old news in crypto world
> 
> USDC/BUSD has already become the de facto trading pair on respectable exchanges. USDT does still have as much market cap as USDC/BUSD combined
> 
> USDT is used a lot in Asia and is probably connected to Chinese contagion risk. Which is why I sold off in 2021 before the peak


There is no equity in any of it, because they use worthless tokens as assets. The only valid collateral is US dollars.....the world currency of business.

Claiming to have equity in exchange for US dollars in the form of some worthless crypto token is as stupid as it gets.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> There is no equity in any of it, because they use worthless tokens as assets. The only valid collateral is US dollars. That is it and that is all.
> 
> Claiming to have equity in exchange for US dollars in the form of some worthless crypto token is as stupid as it gets.


USDC is backed by fiat reserves held in segregated account with US regulated financial institutions. It runs on the Ethereum network and is used by Visa/Mastercard etc

BUSD is mostly used as a trading pair by the largest central exchange Binance. I wouldn't hold BUSD myself and I don't hold any USDC either. There exist better alternatives


----------



## sags

BUSD is controlled by the Chinese. These exchanges are unregulated, are not audited, and have no oversight so they can claim anything they want.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> BUSD is controlled by the Chinese. These exchanges are unregulated and have no oversight so they can claim anything they want.


Congratulations on confirming you are a saggy old racist

Just because CZ is asian does not mean he is controlled "by the Chinese"

GUSD is controlled by "the Americans" because the Winklevoss are white?


----------



## m3s

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590740442915930112


----------



## sags

TRON, another crypto token called a "stablecoin" is on shaky ground. It only has 80% of assets to tokens in reserve.









TRON-Based USDD Stablecoin on Shaky Ground as It Depegs to $0.97


The fallout from this week’s crypto contagion continues to send shockwaves across the industry. The latest digital asset on thin ice is the TRON-based USDD stablecoin.




beincrypto.com


----------



## sags

Venture capital firm, Sequoia Capital has written down $230 million in losses to FTX.

They are only one of many funds that will write down losses.The losses are estimated at $8 billion or more.

Unfortunately, the list includes the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund, who have not revealed how much they will lose.


----------



## m3s

So what did Saylor "of microsoft" say to legacy world?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590733025360621568


----------



## sags

Saylor didn't mention the links to bitcoin from Tether and all other crypto that he said was crap.

If they go down, bitcoin goes down with them.

Saylor also didn't mention the US government is one of the biggest holders of bitcoins (214,000) and could easily control the price.

The US can continue to confiscate bitcoins and grow it's cache and control.

Decentralized......more like owned by the US government.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Saylor didn't mention the links to bitcoin from Tether and all other crypto that he said was crap.
> 
> If they go down, bitcoin goes down with them.
> 
> Saylor also didn't mention the US government is one of the biggest holders of bitcoins (214,000) and could easily control the price.
> 
> The US can continue to confiscate bitcoins and grow it's cache and control.
> 
> Decentralized......more like owned by the US government.


*Its

Maybe you should call Michael Saylor and tell him how inflation is good for GICs

I'm sure a billionaire would be grateful for your extensive financial knowledge


----------



## m3s

Michael Saylor on CNBC


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590751484303794177


----------



## m3s

If sags actually took any action on his prediction he would be completely rekt in a single day. Actions not words


----------



## m3s




----------



## sags

You answered your own question why smart people don't short highly volatile assets.

Limited upside and unlimited downside risk.

You clutch every crypto fairy fart floating by without any thought process.

Bitcoins, solana, cardano, polka dot, tether, celsius, voyager, luna, NFTs, defi.....if it is techie sounding you figure it must be good.

You have managed to compile quite a record of picking losers in it.

Well done.....keep up the good work.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> You clutch every crypto fairy fart floating by without any thought process.
> 
> You manage to maintain a stellar record of picking losers in it.
> 
> Well done.....keep up the good work.


Ok old man who pays $1000/month rent and buys a new Korean made GM every year with the platinum scam package

Vast majority of cryptos I don't like. We've already established that your reading ability is zero. You should read more and talk less

I'm guessing you never completed high school. I doubt it was required to work on an assembly line


----------



## Saveching

How much is this 'boom' from bots buying and selling to each other?
Are there any type of game platforms that are doing good with their coins?


----------



## Gator13

I just noticed that Sam Bankman-Fried is only 30 years old.


----------



## sags

FTX files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

So far, there are 134 companies involved in the labyrinth of contagion. It will take years to sort it all out.

One of the companies is Alameda Research who have their own hidden web of ties and $80 billion in liabilities. It is assumed other companies do as well.

There already appears to be a mountain of illegal activities, and the SEC and DOJ have opened numerous investigations.

As the companies are located all over the world, I expect other governments will also open investigations.


----------



## sags

Every few minutes a new "relationship" comes forward tied to FTX. This is massive and CNBC is interviewing many of the players in the markets.

The CEOs of other crypto companies are anxious to be interviewed on CNBC trying to calm their own investors.

Anthony Scaramucci was on the this morning. His company was intertwined with FTX and he was in the Bahamas checking it out when the news broke.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novagratz is on now. They lost $70 million.

He says FTX is the institutional provider and he knows companies that lost 40% of their capital.

Hedge funds (power traders) have a lot of their money tied up in FTX. Institutions invested in FTX.

The government of Singapore has money invested in FTX.

This is a huge ongoing story. CNBC has been covering it non stop all morning.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> People like Michael Saylor who talk about "decentralization" as the solution are conveniently ignoring some facts.
> 
> Blockchains "may" be decentralized, but the tokens aren't. In order to buy and sell, pay the miners and companies involved, pay the developers who maintain the system, there is a need for "centralized" exchanges. These exchanges are owned by one person, often located offshore in a jurisdiction with poor oversight regulation or none at all.
> 
> People can mine for bitcoins, but they have expenses in the computers, energy, employees and need to be paid for their work. They do that on "centralized" exchanges.
> 
> Exchange owners and operators claim they only offer a place for people to buy and sell tokens, but in reality they are the centralized hub of the cryptosphere.


You lack basic reading and learning abilities sags. This simple concept has been explained before. Please stop typing non-sense when you have no knowledge on the topic

You think that because there are no gas stations, there will never be enough gas stations and therefore we will always ride horses. Same for EVs. You think that because the internet is dial up and has poor user interface, we will never have high speed internet and smartphones. Michael Saylor has explained it but it's clear you don't have the capacity or desire to learn new concepts

People like Michael Saylor have warned people to not leave assets on unregulated centralized exchanges. It will take time for UI to be built and for average people to understand. When cars first came out we didn't have traffic lights, driver licenses or rules of the road. These things had to be built and take time and there are always dumb people and smart people who take advantage of that.

Just look at the dot com bubble. Stop watching CNBC and think for yourself for once. There are people making money and they warned about unregulated exchanges without transparency.


----------



## sags

SBF posts a number of tweets this morning.

The panel on CNBC are baffled by his tweeting and wonder if he has any idea of how much trouble he is in.


----------



## sags

Saylor makes no sense, and neither to you.

What good are tokens if there is no exchange to sell them on for USD ?

He borrowed USD to buy bitcoins using USD on an exchange, so doesn't he expect to sell them for USD on an exchange to pay the loans off in USD ?

What does he plan to do with his bitcoins.....sell them on Facebook Market or Kijiji ?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Saylor makes no sense, and neither to you.
> 
> What good are tokens if there is no exchange to sell them on for USD ?
> 
> He borrowed USD to buy bitcoins using USD on an exchange, so doesn't he expect to sell them for USD on an exchange to pay the loans off in USD ?
> 
> What does he plan to do with his bitcoins.....sell them on Facebook Market or Kijiji ?


This is an example of how you don't know what you're talking about. I'll explain for other people's sake because I know you can't read or understand basic words

There are decentralized exchanges that can already exchange stablescoins far more efficiently than centralized exchanges. The fees are typically 0.3% but they will come down as things become more capital efficient

There are decentralized lending protocols where you can collateralize, supply and borrow stablecoins and tokens. This is also already more efficient than legacy finance and is also becoming more capital efficient. More advanced versions are being tested now thanks to liquid staking where you can stake and lend at the same time

There are already ways to transfer stablecoins or any assets over networks far more efficiently and secure than legacy finance. Then there are already protocols doing things that don't even exist in legacy finance.

Borrowing inferior assets from hard assets is what wealthy people do. I wouldn't expect you to understand because you sold your house. Try to learn something for once


----------



## sags

Kevin O'Leary was just interviewed on CNBC and he was reminded that he had said he did due diligence on FTX and he got duped.

His response is that "stable coins" should be allowed all the exchanges must be domiciled in the US and regulated for assets denominated in US Treasuries audited every 6 months. He said the news the world's biggest exchange is operated by one man known as CZ, is domiciled in China and doesn't have a board of directors. Only in an interview of CNBC today, did CZ admit he was appointing a board of directors today.......albeit from Binance executives.

The guy with bermuda shorts, flip flops, and floppy hair fooled a legion of the most sophisticated investors in the world.

His best asset was his ability as a con man.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> What does he plan to do with his bitcoins.....sell them on Facebook Market or Kijiji ?


When I bought my winter tires off Facebook market the seller refused to use email money transfer. He said sometimes you end up not getting the money immediately and then the buyer gets upset and leaves. So it's cash only in Canada like the 1990s

Europe already had IBAN 10 years ago when I was there. Now I have experienced issues with Interac transfer myself and I have spoken to Canadian banks at length about it. The Canadian banks know it is frustrating and unreliable system. Email is a horrible way to transfer wealth we are decades behind China and Europe

Interac is a 3rd party the banks have no control over. The bank takes no responsibility and has no control because we lack the basic technology in our banks to even transfer money securely. The banks are well aware of this shortfall so they make YOU accept all the risk with a TOS waiver (yet charge you a fee for their sh!t service)

Elon Musk is already talking about integrating p2p money transfers on Twitter. It's not rocket science. Our banks are based on COBOL and mainframes from the 80s. They have too much overhead and empty sky scrapers. The COBOL coders are all ancient and retired and the banks don't want to admit they have no idea how to modernize


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Kevin O'Leary was just interviewed on CNBC and he was reminded that he had said he did due diligence on FTX and he got duped.


Kevin O'Leary made children's games and knows nothing about it

This is why watching CNBC makes you dumb


----------



## sags

Institutional buyers, hedge funds, pensions, companies have been embarrassed and suffering from reputational damage. 

They are fielding questions from their own investors, and losing some of them.

As a result, institutional buyers are cashing out of crypto. That will leave only the retail investors who don't have nearly sufficient capital to support crypto.

Coinbase and other exchanges are laying off because their volumes have plummeted. They are now facing questionable futures.

The end of crypto has begun.


----------



## sags

m3s said:


> Kevin O'Leary made children's games and knows nothing about it
> 
> This is why watching CNBC makes you dumb


Awhile ago you were pointing to people like O'Leary as examples of astute investors in crypto.

You have been bouncing around with weak counter points like a convoy cowboy in a bouncy castle.

I have been consistent that........crypto is crap.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Awhile ago you were pointing to people like him as examples of astute investors in crypto.
> 
> You have been bouncing around with weak counter points like a convoy cowboy in a bouncy castle.
> 
> I have been consistent that........crypto is crap.


Good for you

Twisting words around to fit your poor reading comprehension again

Consistently dumb and saggy is not what I aspire to be


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I buy a few lbs every week for my family.
> Our population growth has been zero for over a decade.
> 
> *If you grew up on an apple orchard, you know that you sell apples.
> You actually create something of value, and that is how you make money.*





MrMatt said:


> Quite simply, no.
> 
> Lets say I make a hard drive, it holds 40MB, then I develop new technology, and it holds 40GB, then 4TB, all with basically the same raw materials.
> 
> I've created something significantly more valuable, at roughly the same cost.
> It isn't all money shuffling.
> 
> If I plant a tree and grow an apple, I created new value.
> 
> You can take a chunk of land and add a house, then it's more valuable, no new people required.


An article popped up that reminded me of this. You can't sell produce unless there are enough people to buy it





__





Loading…






www.cbc.ca





*This farmer says he reluctantly throws away enough cauliflower to feed a province*

Richard Melvin hopes there comes a time when the majority of food waste from his farm ends up in the mouths of people who need it most.

Despite being "perfectly good to eat," up to 40 per cent of Melvin's 36 hectares of cauliflower gets plowed back into the ground each year, according to the Nova Scotia farmer's estimates.

"We waste enough cauliflower on our farm to feed everybody in Nova Scotia, or the Maritimes for that matter," he told Cross Country Checkup's Ian Hanomansing.

Many farmers aren't in a position to afford to harvest, box and transport produce that isn't being purchased, Melvin says — especially for vegetables like cauliflower that can spoil in two weeks.

"This is fresh produce, so we're talking about a fairly short shelf life.* We often get into a situation where we try to do something and the market demand is not quite as good as what we thought it would be.*"


----------



## Freedom2022

I noticed today there are bitcoin ATM in the shopping mall.
I am intrigued to buy a little bit Purpose Bitcoin ETF, BTCC.
100 stocks for +/- $300. If it goes up to $10 per stock, I will earn $700.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> An article popped up that reminded me of this. You can't sell produce unless there are enough people to buy it


I really don't get what your point is.

I'm just saying that not everything is a ponzi scheme.

Sometimes, they actually create value.
I chose an apple tree, because it's pretty simple.
You invest in the tree, you get apples.
Just like you invest in a solar panel, you get electricity.

Sometimes you invest in a company, they make a profit and you get dividends.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I really don't get what your point is.
> 
> I'm just saying that not everything is a ponzi scheme.
> 
> Sometimes, they actually create value.
> I chose an apple tree, because it's pretty simple.
> You invest in the tree, you get apples.
> *Just like you invest in a solar panel, you get electricity.*
> 
> Sometimes you invest in a company, they make a profit and you get dividends.


Only if there are more people to consume it. LOTS of electricity goes to waste

Have you heard of the Muskrat Falls hydro dam? Canada has lots of potential hydro power up north but there are no people to consume it way up there. Muskrat Falls is LOSING money.

Why do you think Canada is so keen on bringing in immigrants? You don't just invest in a company and automatically get dividends. They need product market fit.. More people means more consumers.

Value comes from people.. You can't sell anything on mars and money has no value without someone to give YOU back something of value in exchange for it. It's all a ponzi if you are pragmatic


----------



## londoncalling

I am familiar with the Muskrat Falls hydro dam. The project was full of challenges from day one and many advised not proceeding with the project as proposed. A big reason it got the green light was because of the employment it would create. The power created was a secondary benefit. Power generation requires a distribution network to get it to where the demand is. The transmission lines from Labrador were ridiculously expensive.


----------



## m3s

londoncalling said:


> I am familiar with the Muskrat Falls hydro dam. The project was full of challenges from day one and many advised not proceeding with the project as proposed. A big reason it got the green light was because of the employment it would create. The power created was a secondary benefit. Power generation requires a distribution network to get it to where the demand is. The transmission lines from Labrador were ridiculously expensive.
> 
> View attachment 23870


Yes buy according to Matt if you plant an apple tree or build a solar panel you create value. Just like energy the apples or cauliflower need to be delivered and sold to people

My rebuttal is that you need product market fit - that is you need people or a market to consume your product. What good is a hydro dam if you can't export the energy to people to buy it. Texas even has this problem where they have lots of renewable energy but it is far from the population

You can't just build something to create value without people to buy it. More consumers means more energy consumption means more value. It's all a ponzi when you boil it down


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Yes buy according to Matt if you plant an apple tree or build a solar panel you create value.


Yes



> Just like energy the apples or cauliflower need to be delivered and sold to people


Again yes.



> My rebuttal is that you need product market fit - that is you need people or a market to consume your product. What good is a hydro dam if you can't export the energy to people to buy it. Texas even has this problem where they have lots of renewable energy but it is far from the population
> 
> You can't just build something to create value without people to buy it. More consumers means more energy consumption means more value. It's all a ponzi when you boil it down


That's not a rebuttal, that's a question of market price etc.

Sure creating things that have zero market demand isn't really creating value.
But I'm refering to the cases where the product being produced has value and the production of the good is creating wealth.

But again, it's distracting from my main point that not everything is a Ponzi scheme.
It's like you don't know the meaning of the term.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> But again, it's distracting from my main point that not everything is a Ponzi scheme.
> It's like you don't know the meaning of the term.


I know the meaning of the term. Like many terms it is often overused and was overused by the resident highschool dropout here

If you apply the same logic as the highschool dropout - everything requires new people to create more value on a grand scale. Countries need population growth and immigration because growth of consumers prop up the entire economy and tax regime. This economic system doesn't work otherwise. You can't just grow more produce without people to buy more produce. Dairy farms actually operate on a quota system for this reason to manage supply and demand

We already had the same debate before when you brought up apple trees so it didn't click either time


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> Yes buy according to Matt if you plant an apple tree or build a solar panel you create value. Just like energy the apples or cauliflower need to be delivered and sold to people
> 
> My rebuttal is that you need product market fit - that is you need people or a market to consume your product.


I guess Matt didn't understand that on April 2020 the oil futures was negative due to oversupply and that people had to pay to get that oil off their hands.

It's plain simple, you don't create value by creating supply. You create value by fulfilling demand. If there's no demand, there's no value.


----------



## sags

There is no demand for crypto tokens.....therefore no value.

But a small number of token holders can easily manipulate an unregulated exchange to create the appearance of value......and so they do.

SBF did a masterful job of convincing some of the smartest financial people in the world that his FTX token magically had value.

Once he had convinced them his worthless tokens had value, he moved them around all over the place in exchange for what does have value....US dollars.

There is no value in any crypto......but there are some really good con men. Then there are those who try to be good con men but fall short......like m3s.


----------



## MrBlackhill

sags said:


> There is no demand for crypto tokens.....therefore no value.


There is demand, otherwise no one would buy them. The question is: on what basis does that demand hold?

Some say it's based on a tulip mania. Some say there's more to it.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> There is no demand for crypto tokens.....therefore no value.
> 
> But a small number of token holders can easily manipulate an unregulated exchange to create the appearance of value......and so they do.


Sure

This is why I posted this chart many times here. You seem to constantly confuse all crypto as being the same, including centralized exchanges

No use wasting your energy sags. None of it will matter in your lifetime.


----------



## sags

MrBlackhill said:


> There is demand, otherwise no one would buy them. The question is: on what basis does that demand hold?
> 
> Some say it's based on a tulip mania. Some say there's more to it.


Or the demand is artificial or created, and when that is withdrawn the value drops to zero.


----------



## sags

Cypto is all worthless crap.

Even a so called stablecoin backed 1-1 with a US dollar doesn't have any value because the value is in the US dollar it represents......not the token.

Remove the US dollar and the token is worth $0. That is why stablecoins crash when they become unpegged to the US dollar.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Cypto is all the worthless crap.
> 
> Even a so called stablecoin backed 1-1 with a US dollar doesn't have any value because the value is in the US dollar it represents......not the token.


What about GM? Why did GM go bankrupt if there was real demand for their vehicles? Why did the government need to bail them out?

What happens when boomers stop buying GMs? Does this mean GM is a ponzi scheme? Why did all the manufacturing jobs move to Mexico and China?

What about the banks in the US that are backed by nothing because the fractional reserve requirement is 0? Will the government bail them out again too?


----------



## sags

It is no accident that crypto is portrayed as real money. Bitcoins......are represented by gold coins etc.

This is part of the lure to legitimize crypto and it is very clever. It fools a lot of people.

If instead of "token" people called them "turds" there would be far less interest. Maybe they could have a turd as their emblem.

Bitturd, FTX turd, cardano turd, dogeturd, ....polkadotturd is kind of colorful sounding.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> It is no accident that crypto is portrayed as money. Bitcoins......are represented by gold coins etc.
> 
> This is part of the lure legitimize crypto and it is very clever. It fools a lot of people.
> 
> If instead of "token" people called them "turds" there would be far less interest.


You mean like how GM is misrepresented as a successful company when in fact it went bankrupt?

If it went bankrupt it must be a worthless company right? Maybe we should call GM drivers returds for buying from a failed brand

It's not like returds are supporting local workers when they are made in Mexico and Korea anyways


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> I guess Matt didn't understand that on April 2020 the oil futures was negative due to oversupply and that people had to pay to get that oil off their hands.
> 
> It's plain simple, you don't create value by creating supply. You create value by fulfilling demand. If there's no demand, there's no value.


I fully understand that, and I'm not disagreeing with any of that.

I'm say it is possible to create value, and that not all investments are ponzi schemes.

I'm not saying that every investment in every case creates value.

I'm just saying that not every investment opportunity is a ponzi scheme.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> What about GM? Why did GM go bankrupt if there was real demand for their vehicles? Why did the government need to bail them out?
> 
> What happens when boomers stop buying GMs? Does this mean GM is a ponzi scheme? Why did all the manufacturing jobs move to Mexico and China?
> 
> What about the banks in the US that are backed by nothing because the fractional reserve requirement is 0? Will the government bail them out again too?


GM isn't a ponzi scheme, it could simply be a bad investment.

The thing about a ponzi scheme is the return is just the new investors money being given to the old.
You _could_ argue that stock investing is a ponzi scheme, except if profits are paid out by the actual business and not just new investors, it isn't really a ponzi scheme.

For example, I own TD stock, I have for years, I've gotten back more than my initial purchase in dividends.
Those dividends are NOT from new investors. Clearly it is NOT a ponzi scheme.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> The thing about a ponzi scheme is the return is just the new investors money being given to the old.
> You _could_ argue that stock investing is a ponzi scheme, except if profits are paid out by the actual business and not just new investors, it isn't really a ponzi scheme.
> 
> For example, I own TD stock, I have for years, I've gotten back more than my initial purchase in dividends.
> Those dividends are NOT from new investors. Clearly it is NOT a ponzi scheme.


I know what a ponzi scheme is

sags makes absolute statements such as all cryptos are ponzi schemes. A lot of them are, however some are generating revenue from exchange fees, transaction fees etc

Based on your definition some retirement plans and public services are a ponzi scheme. They require a growing base to fund the benefits


----------



## fstamand

I bought crypto because Poilievre told me to do so.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I know what a ponzi scheme is


If you say so



> sags makes absolute statements such as all cryptos are ponzi schemes. A lot of them are, however some are generating revenue from exchange fees, transaction fees etc


Transaction fees and exchange fees aren't enough to disqualify them as a ponzi scheme.
If they are actually attracting money to do work, then they might not be.

But you know as well as I do, crypto is trading mostly worthless stuff around hoping that some other sucker is going to pay more.
Though some of it is actually doing work, and getting paid for that, I think it's still the minority of funds.



> Based on your definition some retirement plans and public services are a ponzi scheme. They require a growing base to fund the benefits


It isn't "my definition", it is "the definition", and yes some retirement plans are operated that way, or at least in part.
I believe the initial CPP was started paying benefits to the early receivers without them paying their fair share into the system first.
Since then however they've tried to adjust funding so that this is no longer the case, there is an equalization between contributors, but they aren't simply transferring from the young to the old.


----------



## marina628

Resident Gambler here ,hope you are all having a great day .On September 1 Calvin Ayre switched his entire operation from Bitcoin to Tether .To those who do not gamble he owns Bodog ,Bovada ,Ignition Poker and Casino ,Joe Fortune ,Cafe Casino , SlotsLV and Slots.com .This guy has tens of thousands of affiliate and players all are being paid via Crypto .In some private groups it was speculated that Bitcoin will drop based on that move alone and now more and move Online Casino platforms are leaving Bitcoin for Tether .This has nothing to do with FTX which is just a scam and likely not the only one but All the noise on Bitcoin has been expect a drop down to $17000 range by October and 'we ' have heard that noise since the summer .I used my first coins to play poker ,sold 27 coins at what i thought was the top at $4400 a few years ago and still get paid in bitcoin every month .I got into bitcoin by gambling and I have considered my gains lucky. I made $40 ,$300 and $xxx,xxx on bitcoin over the years never once have I had my coins sitting on a exchange and not have my keys. If you put in $2000 in Bitcoin and just forgot about it you would still likely be up 400% at any stage except that small window it was going at 60k+. I have a friend who still believes bitcoin will hit $250,000 .I have 4 coins I am never selling ever ,one for each kid ,myself and my husband .If we see $10,000 again I will buy another 1-2 and forget about it ,odds to see $10,000 is about the same as seeing $25,000 IMO .I am watching to see how many others move to tether ,because when a casino says bitcoin is too volatile you have to pay attention lol


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> Transaction fees and exchange fees aren't enough to disqualify them as a ponzi scheme.
> If they are actually attracting money to do work, then they might not be.
> 
> It isn't "my definition", it is "the definition"


Notice how you changed the definition when you want to

If something generates revenue and fees it isn't a ponzi by definition. However that is not how you or sags are using the term

People use the term ponzi loosely when they want to, then disagree when the same loose standards are applied to other things


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Notice how you changed the definition when you want to


I've stuck to the same definition throughout.




__





Loading…






en.wikipedia.org







> If something generates revenue and fees it isn't a ponzi by definition. However that is not how you or sags are using the term


That's not precisely true.
The trading and fees are external tot he actual fraud.

The key aspect of a Ponzi scheme is that
1. It is a fraud.
2. The "investment return" paid out are simply the investments of other investors.

Based on that definition, I disagree with your claim that 'everything is a ponzi scheme'

I provided examples that are not ponzi schemes as counter examples.




> People use the term ponzi loosely when they want to, then disagree when the same loose standards are applied to other things


It would seem you (and likely sags), are likely using a definition so loose that it is effectively meaningless.

Can you provide your personal definition of Ponzi Scheme? Because I honestly have no idea what it is.


----------



## m3s

marina628 said:


> Resident Gambler here ,hope you are all having a great day .On September 1 Calvin Ayre switched his entire operation from Bitcoin to Tether .To those who do not gamble he owns Bodog ,Bovada ,Ignition Poker and Casino ,Joe Fortune ,Cafe Casino , SlotsLV and Slots.com .This guy has tens of thousands of affiliate and players all are being paid via Crypto .In some private groups it was speculated that Bitcoin will drop based on that move alone and now more and move Online Casino platforms are leaving Bitcoin for Tether .This has nothing to do with FTX which is just a scam and likely not the only one but All the noise on Bitcoin has been expect a drop down to $17000 range by October and 'we ' have heard that noise since the summer .I used my first coins to play poker ,sold 27 coins at what i thought was the top at $4400 a few years ago and still get paid in bitcoin every month .I got into bitcoin by gambling and I have considered my gains lucky. I made $40 ,$300 and $xxx,xxx on bitcoin over the years never once have I had my coins sitting on a exchange and not have my keys. If you put in $2000 in Bitcoin and just forgot about it you would still likely be up 400% at any stage except that small window it was going at 60k+. I have a friend who still believes bitcoin will hit $250,000 .I have 4 coins I am never selling ever ,one for each kid ,myself and my husband .If we see $10,000 again I will buy another 1-2 and forget about it ,odds to see $10,000 is about the same as seeing $25,000 IMO .I am watching to see how many others move to tether ,because when a casino says bitcoin is too volatile you have to pay attention lol


September of this year? I started selling in September of last years and then a lot in Dec of last year

Everyone has been calling for $10k all year. Which makes me think it would bottom out before that. I don't try to call the tops or bottoms and you never seem to have much time to buy/sell crypto tops/bottoms. It is currently sitting at the precious cycle ATH level so failing here you would expect a sharp fall to $10-12k levels

Lots of people were holding BTC on exchanges that didn't exist - FTX didn't hold BTC even though customers were trading it on FTX. Now we are seeing record hardware wallet sales and record withdrawals from exchanges. If everyone shorts here because everyone knows it's going to $10k then there could be a short squeeze

Either way it's good to flush out all these centralized exchanges. People are finally getting the point of self-custody (until next cycle)


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> The key aspect of a Ponzi scheme is that
> 1. It is a fraud.
> 2. The "investment return" paid out are simply the investments of other investors.
> 
> Based on that definition, I disagree with your claim that 'everything is a ponzi scheme'
> 
> I provided examples that are not ponzi schemes as counter examples.
> 
> It would seem you (and likely sags), are likely using a definition so loose that it is effectively meaningless.


I was saying based on sags loose definition many things are ponzi - which I agree makes the term meaningless. That was the point

By your own definition not all crypto are ponzi schemes. If so that would mean all banks and financial services are ponzi schemes because they are based on the same form of financial transaction revenue. You are making absolute statements that would be impossible to prove. Even the CFTC agrees as they now define several cryptos as commodities. Maybe you should let them know

This comes from not understand what you are calling a ponzi scheme. Therefore I can call anything a ponzi scheme based on your logic.


----------



## marina628

m3s said:


> September of this year? I started selling in September of last years and then a lot in Dec of last year
> 
> Everyone has been calling for $10k all year. Which makes me think it would bottom out before that. I don't try to call the tops or bottoms and you never seem to have much time to buy/sell crypto tops/bottoms. It is currently sitting at the precious cycle ATH level so failing here you would expect a sharp fall to $10-12k levels
> 
> Lots of people were holding BTC on exchanges that didn't exist - FTX didn't hold BTC even though customers were trading it on FTX. Now we are seeing record hardware wallet sales and record withdrawals from exchanges. If everyone shorts here because everyone knows it's going to $10k then there could be a short squeeze
> 
> Either way it's good to flush out all these centralized exchanges. People are finally getting the point of self-custody (until next cycle)


Sept 1 is when Calvin did his switch .I sold mine in 2017 (27 coins) kept 4+ back then. I am getting $5000 -$25000 USD a month in bitcoin from income and i generally sell it all within hours or minutes of receiving it. I found a way to buy Uber eats and Amazon gift cards so i will use some for gifts for the kids but rest gets cashed out to my bank .I paid a lot of capital gains in past years and will have a smallish $xx,xxx in 2022 .


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I was saying based on sags loose definition many things are ponzi - which I agree makes the term meaningless. That was the point


I didn't get that, because I don't listen to sags, because they're just a troll.



> By your own definition not all crypto are ponzi schemes.


Correct.
I'd like to point out I'm the one who has explicitly stated that not everything is a Ponzi scheme.



> If so that would mean all banks and financial services are ponzi schemes because they are based on the same form of financial transaction revenue.


That doesn't follow.
If something (crypto or bank) are providing a legitimate service for a fee, without fraud on the source of the return, it is not a Ponzi scheme.

If you loan me money, and I loan it to someone else, and they pay it back, that is NOT a ponzi scheme.
If it is all fully disclosed to all participants it's even less of a fraud, because there is no fraud taking place.



> You are making absolute statements that would be impossible to prove. Even the CFTC agrees as they now define several cryptos as commodities. Maybe you should let them know
> 
> This comes from not understand what you are calling a ponzi scheme. Therefore I can call anything a ponzi scheme based on your logic.


What statement have I made that is "impossible to prove"
I agree that crypto is a commodity type thing. I should let them know that I agree? How, and what does that matter?

No, you can't call anything a ponzi scheme based on "mrmatts logic", because my logic clearly defines what is a ponzi scheme, and things that don't fit that definition are not ponzi schemes.
I've given you another example of one such non-ponzi in this post.


----------



## Beaver101

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-begins-184144679.html

The crypto-mania continues ... SBF=FTX=H=What ... cryto = encryptics ... how fitting plus a BONUS - new English language!!!! ... for aliens (not of this planet).


----------



## sags

Interesting that the guy who blew up Ultimate Bet and Absolute Poker websites when he got caught having employees bet against customers while they could see the customer's cards hands, was the compliance officer at FTX.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Interesting that the guy who blew up Ultimate Bet and Absolute Poker websites when he got caught having employees bet against customers while they could see the customer's cards hands, was the compliance officer at FTX.


 .. what web they weave!!! Looks like all self-deserving gunks in one basket.


----------



## sags

Mr. Matt and m3s....go ahead and argue with each other on the definition of a ponzi scheme, but don't align me with either one of you noodle heads.....thanks.


----------



## sags

The FTX scandal has increased pressure on US government to audit other crypto to ensure they have real assets for collateral and not some bullshit tokens.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The FTX scandal has increased pressure on US government to audit other crypto to ensure they have real assets for collateral and not some bullshit tokens.


You mean centralized exchanges?

Most of them are bankrupt now. Sounds like BlockFi and crypto.com will be next. How would the US government "audit crypto" exactly?

How would they audit BTC? Did they teach you how at GM 20 years ago?


----------



## sags

Cryptocurrency lender BlockFi reveals it had significant exposure to FTX. The carnage has only just begun to be revealed.





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Loading…






ca.news.yahoo.com


----------



## sags

Tether is going to be audited and with it's ties to bitcoins problems there could cause crypto to crash to zero.

Crypto is a huge web of companies and ties, deliberately created in offshore domiciles to avoid regulation and scrutiny.

The whole purpose of crypto is to transfer money without detection. It is full of known criminals and foreign entities.

The US government has no choice but to come down hard on all forms of crypto now.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The FTX scandal has increased pressure on US government to audit other crypto to ensure they have real assets for collateral and not some bullshit tokens.


The US government should audit banks to ensure they have real assets for collateral to back up customer deposits

You realize that banks in the US have a requirement to maintain a fractional reserve of 0%

There is 1 US bank that handled all USD deposits to FTX, crypto.com, Kraken etc. It in turn leant all the USD out. Magical


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Tether is going to be audited and with it's ties to bitcoins problems there could cause crypto to crash to zero.
> 
> Crypto is a huge web of companies and ties, deliberately created in offshore domiciles to avoid regulation and scrutiny.
> 
> The whole purpose of crypto is to transfer money without detection. It is full of known criminals and foreign entities.
> 
> The US government has no choice but to come down hard on all forms of crypto now.


*Its

The transactions are public sags. Pretty sure we covered that many times

Imagine your grandfather explaining the internet without ever using it

Pretty dumb huh


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> You mean centralized exchanges?
> 
> Most of them are bankrupt now. Sounds like BlockFi and crypto.com will be next. How would the US government "audit crypto" exactly?
> 
> How would they audit BTC? Did they teach you how at GM 20 years ago?


There is no reason for an exchange to go bankrupt, at least to the tune of billions.

It's really simple, you only trade what you actually have custody and charge a commission.
As long as you're
1. Not hacked.
2. Commissions/fees cover operation
3. You're not taking risks.

Bankruptcy, makes no sense.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> There is no reason for an exchange to go bankrupt, at least to the tune of billions.
> 
> It's really simple, you only trade what you actually have custody and charge a commission.
> As long as you're
> 1. Not hacked.
> 2. Commissions/fees cover operation
> 
> Bankruptcy, makes no sense.


Basically Kraken, Bitfinex and maybe Binance operate that way

The rest operated like fractional reserve banks which are the norm in US/Canada. They lend/employ the user deposits for their own benefit and paid a yield to encourage funds to stay. Except the banks nowadays pay like 0.01% interest because people leave their money in a fractional reserve regardless

I believe even Questrade does this which humble pie used to point out


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Basically Kraken, Bitfinex and maybe Binance operate that way


What about coinbase?


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> What about coinbase?


Yea I should have put coinbase instead of binance. Coinbase has all the institutional custody along with Gemini. Basically the old exchanges that survived

Anecdotally Tangerine told me a few weeks ago they will only accept transfers from Kraken and coinbase. They were blocking my transfers to test newton app


----------



## m3s

Chart from BoA

BTC is no surprise but dot com bubble looks smaller than gold. Also gold is worth more today, as are most of those previous bubbles


----------



## nathan79

m3s said:


> Yea I should have put coinbase instead of binance. Coinbase has all the institutional custody along with Gemini. Basically the old exchanges that survived
> 
> Anecdotally Tangerine told me a few weeks ago they will only accept transfers from Kraken and coinbase. They were blocking my transfers to test newton app


EFT from Newton to Tangerine doesn't work for me, but Interac E-transfer has always worked just fine. The downside is the 10K limit, which is pretty annoying when I'm trying to send 50K. I've sent as many as five 10K transfers in the span of 10 minutes... looks very sketchy but I never had an issue. 😅


----------



## m3s

nathan79 said:


> EFT from Newton to Tangerine doesn't work for me, but Interac E-transfer has always worked just fine. The downside is the 10K limit, which is pretty annoying when I'm trying to send 50K. I've sent as many as five 10K transfers in the span of 10 minutes... looks very sketchy but I never had an issue. 😅


I just used Kraken instead after they said that but maybe I will try Newton again

Fees were definitely much lower in the US without having to deal with CAD conversion and these poor transfer methods. I haven't tried it but it sounds like Newton uses spreads

I heard the coinberry guy talking on twitter spaces the other day. Guess they've been around a long time


----------



## nathan79

m3s said:


> I just used Kraken instead after they said that but maybe I will try Newton again
> 
> Fees were definitely much lower in the US without having to deal with CAD conversion and these poor transfer methods. I haven't tried it but it sounds like Newton uses spreads
> 
> I heard the coinberry guy talking on twitter spaces the other day. Guess they've been around a long time


When I first looked at Coinberry their spreads were ridiculous, but they seem to be getting pretty good.





__





Cryptolens - Find the Best Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Rates


Cryptolens - Find the Best Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Rates




cryptolens.ca





It looks like they are the cheapest option if you use a wire transfer. I don't like wires and Tangerine doesn't accept them anyway. My credit union charges $10 for incoming wires. Might still be the cheapest option but I rather just use E-transfers to avoid the hassle. Coinberry has a 5K max for E-transfers according to their site.

I should probably try Kraken since they're second on the list, they offer EFTs, and it sounds like Tangerine doesn't mind them.

Newton is not the cheapest by any means, but I just find them really easy to use.


----------



## m3s

nathan79 said:


> It looks like they are the cheapest option if you use a wire transfer. I don't like wires and Tangerine doesn't accept them anyway. My credit union charges $10 for incoming wires. Might still be the cheapest option but I rather just use E-transfers to avoid the hassle. Coinberry has a 5K max for E-transfers according to their site.
> 
> I should probably try Kraken since they're second on the list, they offer EFTs, and it sounds like Tangerine doesn't mind them.
> 
> Newton is not the cheapest by any means, but I just find them really easy to use.


Yea I don't like wires either

Kraken is 3k max Interac (and Interac freezes it without telling you or Tangerine why if you use a VPN) and Kraken has a $30 fee on that  Or they have a in-person-payment through Canada Post at $1.25 + 0.25%

Newton app seemed very easy to use. I noticed they were using Plaid transfers like in the US. Not sure if that works with Canadian banks. Plaid did have a lawsuit for privacy issues


----------



## nortel'd

Don't Miss Out on Crypto: Larry David FTX Commercial


----------



## m3s

nortel'd said:


> Don't Miss Out on Crypto: Larry David FTX Commercial


Worse than being nortel'd ?

All the superbowl advertisers got rekt this year


----------



## sags

Crypto got rekt this year.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Crypto got rekt this year.


As expected

GM got rekt in 2008 and yet boomers still buy them

GM needed a government bailout to survive though


----------



## gardner

A lot of fallout from FTX on other businesses and schemes:

Genesis crypto lending service halts withdrawal due to "extreme market dislocation and loss of industry confidence" caused by the FTX implosion - no word if they are directly exposed though
BlockFi plans layoffs, possible bankruptcy after FTX collapse after surviving the previous crypto meltdown only thanks to hundreds of millions in loans from FTX.
crypto lending firm SALT announced that they would be halting withdrawals due to exposure to FTX.
Ikigai Asset Management announces "large majority" of assets trapped in FTX
Huobi exchange announces $18.1 million is locked on FTX, mostly customer funds
AAX cryptocurrency exchange suspends withdrawals
Most of these are comparatively small players, and obviously no one here is going to have had anything to do with them.


----------



## MrMatt

gardner said:


> A lot of fallout from FTX on other businesses and schemes:


A whole bunch of leveraged schemes collapsed together.

That's the way it works.
I'm more convinced than ever Dave Ramsey and various religious texts are right.
Don't be in debt.


----------



## marina628

sags said:


> Interesting that the guy who blew up Ultimate Bet and Absolute Poker websites when he got caught having employees bet against customers while they could see the customer's cards hands, was the compliance officer at FTX.


Last I checked Ultimate Bet owed me 16k they never paid ,not surprised these turds are still screwing people.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> A lot of fallout from FTX on other businesses and schemes:
> 
> Genesis crypto lending service halts withdrawal due to "extreme market dislocation and loss of industry confidence" caused by the FTX implosion - no word if they are directly exposed though
> BlockFi plans layoffs, possible bankruptcy after FTX collapse after surviving the previous crypto meltdown only thanks to hundreds of millions in loans from FTX.
> crypto lending firm SALT announced that they would be halting withdrawals due to exposure to FTX.
> Ikigai Asset Management announces "large majority" of assets trapped in FTX
> Huobi exchange announces $18.1 million is locked on FTX, mostly customer funds
> AAX cryptocurrency exchange suspends withdrawals
> Most of these are comparatively small players, and obviously no one here is going to have had anything to do with them.


Meanwhile all the major decentralized lending protocols are working as intended - their liquidations are triggered by code

We are seeing record withdrawal from centralized exchanges which actually creates demand and causes all these failures - the centralized exchanges were short and didn't expect so many withdrawals

Imagine if everyone took self-custody of their gold? Do you think the gold vaults hold as much gold as they sell? How do you think that would impact gold's price (if vaults lost the ability to sell more than they actually hold)

FTX didn't have any BTC on its balance sheet to liquidate and their customers can't dump their BTC either - it doesn't exist


----------



## sags

The CEO of Strike was on CNBC and didn't hold anything back.


----------



## sags

Another one bites the dust......









Crypto Bank Silvergate Battles FTX Contagion Fears


The bank’s shares have plummeted even as Silvergate takes steps to reassure investors of its stability amid FTX’s collapse.




www.wsj.com


----------



## ian

PP claims to believe in them as a solution for inflation.

Or did he get that mixed up with de-inflation?


----------



## m3s

ian said:


> PP claims to believe in them as a solution for inflation.
> 
> Or did he get that mixed up with de-inflation?


Markets are forward looking

Crypto skyrocketed when the central banks had easy monetary policy and the rate of inflation was expected to increase in the future. Crypto has declined as soon as the central banks pivoted to tighten monetary policy because the rate of inflation is expected to peak and subside in the future because that is the central bank core mandate

Vast majority don't seem to understand market basics


----------



## sags

Crypto investors cash gets deflated.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Crypto investors cash gets deflation.


Speaking of people with no understanding of markets

Watching CNBC makes your brain sag. Reading makes it a sponge of knowledge

Try reading more in spewing garbage less


----------



## sags

Crypto is pet rocks, cabbage patch dolls, …. Just bubble mania.

I will sell you 10,000 old sports cards cheap. They are the next big thing.


----------



## sags

Read this from a fund manager of high net worth clients, Ryan Lewenza





__





Book Updates — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate







www.greaterfool.ca


----------



## Tostig

As skeptical as I am with cryptocurrencies, I think we have to make a distinction between crypto exchanges and the currencies themselves.

If a bank collapsed and you can't get the rest your money that's over the federally insured limit, does that mean the dollars that you owned, in general is actually no good? No, it's only the institution that held them on your behalf.

Similarly, we can't claim that green initiatives are no good just because a lot of companies green-wash to make themselves look better.

And then there's the ordinary common stocks that are traded on the big stock markets. You own them through your broker. If your broker, like mine at BMOInvestorline closed down, that doesn't mean the stocks that I actually own are no good just because I can't access my holdings. ( But I know there is probably a procedure to do that.)

So it goes back to the crypto exchanges like QuadrigaCX and FTX that hold your cryptos. If those exchanges were insured under the regulating bodies, I would be pretty sure there would have been a way to gey the cryptos you own back somehow.


----------



## m3s

Tostig said:


> As skeptical as I am with cryptocurrencies, I think we have to make a distinction between crypto exchanges and the currencies themselves.
> 
> If a bank collapsed and you can't get the rest your money that's over the federally insured limit, does that mean the dollars that you owned, in general is actually no good? No, it's only the institution that held them on your behalf.
> 
> Similarly, we can't claim that green initiatives are no good just because a lot of companies green-wash to make themselves look better.
> 
> And then there's the ordinary common stocks that are traded on the big stock markets. You own them through your broker. If your broker, like mine at BMOInvestorline closed down, that doesn't mean the stocks that I actually own are no good just because I can't access my holdings. ( But I know there is probably a procedure to do that.)
> 
> So it goes back to the crypto exchanges like QuadrigaCX and FTX that hold your cryptos. If those exchanges were insured under the regulating bodies, I would be pretty sure there would have been a way to gey the cryptos you own back somehow.


Yes most people don't make the distinction

FTX held 0 BTC even though it "sold" BTC to customers. Robinhood and Questrade did similar games in order to lower trading fees.

Gold is also very similar - JPMorgan and friends have been fined billions for manipulating Gold prices by selling more than they have. If everyone took custody of their gold its price would go up because the gold vaults are effectively selling short

This is also why the SEC is delaying the approval of a spot BTC ETF while they approve futures BTC ETFs instead. Canada does have spot BTC ETFs and Canada also has better physically backed Gold/Silver ETFs imo

We are now seeing record BTC withdrawals from centralized exchanges and record on-chain activity as people are learning this lesson


----------



## Beaver101

Tostig said:


> As skeptical as I am with cryptocurrencies, I think we have to make a distinction between crypto exchanges and the currencies themselves.
> 
> If a bank collapsed and you can't get the rest your money that's over the federally insured limit, does that mean the dollars that you owned, in general is actually no good? No, it's only the institution that held them on your behalf.
> 
> Similarly, we can't claim that green initiatives are no good just because a lot of companies green-wash to make themselves look better.
> 
> And then there's the ordinary common stocks that are traded on the big stock markets. You own them through your broker. If your broker, like mine at BMOInvestorline closed down, that doesn't mean the stocks that I actually own are no good just because I can't access my holdings. ( But I know there is probably a procedure to do that.)
> 
> So it goes back to the crypto exchanges like QuadrigaCX and FTX that hold your cryptos. *If those exchanges were insured under the regulating bodies*, I would be pretty sure there would have been a way to gey the cryptos you own back somehow.


 ... seems like the expert on crypto (the one who posted after you or post#1806) got your message with his spin-o-crypto-matics.

Simple question - so are those exchanges "insured"? Or are they even regulated? No, then you sh1t out of luck with retrieving your BTCs or crypto-craps. 

Alternatively, one could wait until the next dawn of the century where youngsters like m3s reincarnates in another (scamming) form. Maybe as a 5th dimensional or invisible currency?


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> ... seems like the expert on crypto (the one who posted after you or post#1806) got your message with his spin-o-crypto-matics.
> 
> Simple question - so are those exchanges "insured"? Or are they even regulated? No, then you sh1t out of luck with retrieving your BTCs or crypto-craps.
> 
> Alternatively, one could wait until the next dawn of the century where youngsters like m3s reincarnates in another (scamming) form. Maybe as a 5th dimensional or invisible currency?


Some are regulated

Kraken is a regulated bank in the US. Coinbase is very regulated. Obviously more regulation is needed but the SEC is not trying to protect crypto

The bank regulators come and go through the revolving doors of banks - so who do you think they want to protect


----------



## sags

Crypto tokens have no intrinsic value.

Crypto pumpers have to create the illusion of value to sell them to greater fools.


----------



## Beaver101

m3s said:


> Some are regulated
> 
> Kraken is a regulated bank in the US. Coinbase is very regulated. Obviously more regulation is needed but the SEC is not trying to protect crypto
> 
> The bank regulators come and go through the revolving doors of banks - so who do you think they want to protect


 ... the first question (repeat here) I asked was "are those exchanges insured"?

Now you come up with the answer on the 2nd question (not the first, and why not?) with "some are regulated". What are "some"? According to you, the "some" means "2 as two or deux".... too many there too, right? LMAO.

First being, Kraken - a regulated "bank" in the US. Is it a regulated exchange for cryptos? Why regulate an entire bank for that which I don't suppose it's a "bank" that handles only cryptos?

Then there's "Coinbase" which is very regulated. I admit I have no idea what coinbase is and couldn't care less here - other than guessing it's supposed to be an exchange of some sorts or for some "coins" of some sort. Now why would it be regulated, let alone "very" when we don't even know what kind of coins it regulates? And then the question becomes "who regulates it"?

Do I need to go on? ... re "_obviously more regulation is needed and the SEC is not trying to protect crypto_" ... you make me laugh on how you're trying to spin the crypto-matic-scams.


----------



## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> ... the first question (repeat here) I asked was "are those exchanges insured"?
> 
> Now you come up with the answer on the 2nd question (not the first, and why not?) with "some are regulated". What are "some"? According to you, the "some" means "2 as two or deux".... too many there too, right? LMAO.
> 
> First being, Kraken - a regulated "bank" in the US. Is it a regulated exchange for cryptos? Why regulate an entire bank for that which I don't suppose it's a "bank" that handles only cryptos?
> 
> Then there's "Coinbase" which is very regulated. I admit I have no idea what coinbase is and couldn't care less here - other than guessing it's supposed to be an exchange of some sorts or for some "coins" of some sort. Now why would it be regulated, let alone "very" when we don't even know what kind of coins it regulates? And then the question becomes "who regulates it"?
> 
> Do I need to go on? ... re "_obviously more regulation is needed and the SEC is not trying to protect crypto_" ... you make me laugh on how you're trying to spin the crypto-matic-scams.


Like most people you assume the world doesn't change

You assume that banks were always regulated since the beginning of time

Change is the only constant in life


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Crypto tokens have no intrinsic value.
> 
> Crypto pumpers have to create the illusion of value to sell them to greater fools.


Greater Fool Garth Turner convinced you to sell your house, didn't he?

You convinced your son not to buy a house. Now what? That seems like a horrible decision in hindsight

Guess what sags everything is worth what people will pay


----------



## sags

What is the point of holding tokens in a crypto wallet ?

If there are no centralized exchanges tokens would have no market vale.

Crypto arguments are long on hope and short on substance.


----------



## sags

Good thing our son couldn’t buy a home. 

He would be holding a big debt and a home falling in price every month.

He pays $1575 for a 4 bedroom townhouse rent controlled.

They best stay right there and save.

Better to stuff their TFSAs


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> What is the point of holding tokens in a crypto wallet ?
> 
> If there are no centralized exchanges tokens would have no market vale.
> 
> Crypto arguments are long on hope and short on substance.


Billions worth of tx occur on chain everyday sags

You are basically criticizing the telephone or internet having never used them or having even basic understanding of them

Like Gretzky criticizing players but never getting on the ice. What a waste


----------



## Faramir

I really have no idea about cryptos but I lean to being skeptical. We do need an honest money system however. No more of this central banks spinning the spigot of easy money.


----------



## MrMatt

Faramir said:


> I really have no idea about cryptos but I lean to being skeptical. We do need an honest money system however. No more of this central banks spinning the spigot of easy money.


That's the point, some (most) are fully open and disclosed systems.

Everyone can see everyone else. Remember before Quadriga they were talking about how they didn't have funds because once deposited, they immediately sent it off somewhere else.


----------



## m3s

Faramir said:


> I really have no idea about cryptos but I lean to being skeptical. We do need an honest money system however. No more of this central banks spinning the spigot of easy money.


Can you see how much money is in your bank's reserve? In the US since 2020 they are required to maintain 0% reserve. Not a single mention of this in the news


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594867335659229185


----------



## sags

Blockchains are brutally slow compared to current legacy systems in use.

Sure you can watch your stolen crypto move from wallet to wallet. You just don’t know who owns the wallet and can’t reverse or stop the transactions.

Oh look… they are on the move again.

Good luck chasing down the hacker in Russia and getting your money back.

Maybe call the government help line or the media can write up another cautionary sad tale of crypto theft for their viewers.


----------



## sags

Why don’t you fess up m3s…crypto is crapto and you know it better than most.

After all, you said you know and worked with these people… and they are fine folks.

You vouched for them and their programs…. remember when ?


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Why don’t you fess up m3s…crypto is crapto and you know it better than most.


Imagine a cowboy who thinks cars are crap because of x y z reason but never drove one - kind of like how you think of EVs

The average person thought the same way about telephones, internet and every other innovation before they understood the benefits

You are less intelligent than average though. This has been confirmed too many times



sags said:


> Blockchains are brutally slow compared to current legacy systems in use.


Legacy system takes days to settle

Try moving stocks from one brokerage to another or large funds overseas

But again you aren't very intelligent at all. Because this was explained before


----------



## sags

You order $200 worth of Chinese food and the guy hands you a bag containing 1 egg roll. You refuse to sign the credit card receipt and he leaves.

You call the restaurant and they say they sent the order with the delivery guy and he says he gave it to you.

You call Visa and they tell the restaurant to send them a copy of the signed receipt which the restaurant doesn’t have.

Visa reverses the charge and takes it out of the money “on hold” from the restaurant.

There are good reasons why there are holding periods to settle financial transactions.

Everyone is not honest and honest mistakes are made.

With crypto you transfer the money and the transaction is irreversible. Your money is gone.

Financial systems can’t work on trust alone.

Enjoy your $200 egg roll.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> You order $200 worth of Chinese food and the guy hands you a bag containing 1 egg roll. You refuse to sign the credit card receipt and he leaves.
> 
> You call the restaurant and they say they sent the order with the delivery guy and he says he gave it to you.
> 
> You call Visa and they tell the restaurant to send them a copy of the signed receipt which the restaurant doesn’t have.
> 
> Visa reverses the charge and takes it out of the money “on hold” from the restaurant.
> 
> There are good reasons why their on holding periods to settle financial transactions.
> 
> Everyone is not honest and mistakes are made.
> 
> With crypto you transfer the money and the transaction is irreversible.
> 
> Too bad for you. Enjoy your egg roll.
> 
> Financial systems can’t work that way.
> 
> Satisfies dream of Bitcoin as currency has already failed.


Bitcoin can be used to transfer large values very efficiently. It works better for that purpose than what we currently use. Wires don't go "on hold" they are manual process that fails regularly

You could use lightning network to pay for food but that is just a layer 2. Visa/MC is a layer 2 that takes a month to settle and has much higher fees. There is no need to pay in advance and refunds can work the same way, with far less fees and faster settlement

Just like an EV you are always trying to find flaws and problems instead of understanding the benefits or imagining how things could change. The world would be a sorry miserable place if everyone was like this just complaining about every new thing

Now if you understood how smart contracts work your entire point would be null. You say "financial systems can't work that way" They already do. Your brain just can't work that way. You could go try a smart contract on a tesnet it's not that hard


----------



## sags

Smart contracts are just a hyperlink to a computer server…like NFTs.

The documents could just as easily be sent by encrypted email.

Important documents are sent by courier and signed for by the recipient.

Think about it.

What company, court, lawyer, business of any sort would want their documents exposed for public consumption on a blockchain ?

Does Tesla tell GM all their secrets ?

The cost of the data required to secure all the documents on a public blockchain would be astronomical.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Smart contracts are just a hyperlink to a computer server…like NFTs.
> 
> The documents could just as easily be dented by encrypted email.


They are processed on-chain. That's the entire point. NFTs can be stored either way this was covered before (clearly you have a learning disability)

There's no point arguing with someone who knows less than nothing to start with


----------



## Beaver101

Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, parents bought properties worth nearly $121-million in Bahamas over past two years

Above article is behind a paywall but title give you the gist of it.

I think investors with FTX would be ever so lucky to get a "thanks for your support!!!!" from SBF's "old fart boomers et al" parents, let alone young scammer (or whatever gen) SBF wants himself to be.

Oh, did I mention that SBF treated his buddies to $2K+ (aka two thousands US dineros) lunches in the Bahamas? I wonder what was the tip was with OPM's?


----------



## sags

SBF was the crypto dude dream.

Free money. Mega wealth lifestyle.

All by creating worthless tokens out of thin area and convincing people they had value.

Bitcoin will crash and it will take all crypto down with it. There will be zero credibility or interest left.

SBF is the cuckoo in the coal mine.


----------



## gardner

sags said:


> Smart contracts are just a hyperlink to a computer server…like NFTs.


This is completely wrong. They have numerous problems, but being mere links to unverified crud in the vein of goofy monkey NFTs is not one of them.

Please read something: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_contract


----------



## gardner

FTX contagion seems to be spreading. Genesis Global Trading revealed their exposure to FTX last week, halting withdrawals from their lending service. Now they are telling investors that they may need to file for bankruptcy if their attempts to raise at least $1 billion in new capital don't succeed.





__





Loading…






news.yahoo.com


----------



## MrMatt

So, as someone who doesn't pay attention I don't get it.

Isn't the whole FTX thing that they took the money and ran, and never owned the stuff their clients thought they bought?
Isn't this a pretty basic scam of sending your money to "some guy" on the internet, then being surprised that he was lying?

I think that people have gotten lazy with regulated banks and securities, not realizing that these other entities aren't managing stuff properly.

I hope that they don't force everyone to be regulated, and people simply insist on proper asset disclosure from these "exchanges"


----------



## gardner

MrMatt said:


> Isn't this a pretty basic scam of sending your money to "some guy" on the internet, then being surprised that he was lying?
> 
> I think that people have gotten lazy with regulated banks and securities, not realizing that these other entities aren't managing stuff properly.


I send my money to "some guy" on the internet all the time. I generally send it to folks like TD, Vanguard, Blackrock, BMO and iShares. The mere fact that I do this is not free license for those entities to rip me off. FTX and many other entities operating in the crypto space put themselves forward as trustworthy, regulated, conservatively run and financially stable. How's a punter to know that sending money to Vanguard is fairly safe and sending it to FTX is just throwing it away? It is certainly not fair to lay this on the punters.

Savvy crypto bro's will generally say -- "not my keys, not my coins" -- or some such pithy abdication of any role in the arc of crypto fortunes. They will say that the suckers were probably boomers and therefore too dumb to handle crypto investments properly. But they will go on to promote the idea of a crypto decentralized finance economy that will take over, leaving us dumb people behind. And because all that stuff is frictionless. unregulated and very complicated, it will remain full of scams, charlatans simple bugs and risk.


----------



## MrMatt

gardner said:


> I send my money to "some guy" on the internet all the time. I generally send it to folks like TD, Vanguard, Blackrock, BMO and iShares. The mere fact that I do this is not free license for those entities to rip me off. FTX and many other entities operating in the crypto space put themselves forward as trustworthy, regulated, conservatively run and financially stable. How's a punter to know that sending money to Vanguard is fairly safe and sending it to FTX is just throwing it away? It is certainly not fair to lay this on the punters.


No, but you weren't sending it to a reputable organization.
If you sent money to the FTX or Quadriga scammers, or that Nigerian Prince, that's your problem.
Sure they're scammers, and yes it's problematic, but what due diligence did you perform?



> Savvy crypto bro's will generally say -- "not my keys, not my coins" -- or some such pithy abdication of any role in the arc of crypto fortunes. They will say that the suckers were probably boomers and therefore too dumb to handle crypto investments properly. But they will go on to promote the idea of a crypto decentralized finance economy that will take over, leaving us dumb people behind. And because all that stuff is frictionless. unregulated and very complicated, it will remain full of scams, charlatans simple bugs and risk.


So if it is high risk, complicated, and full of scams and unregulated why would you give them money?

Remember, I think that crypto technologies are interesting, they have value.
I now even think they're going be useful (it's not just theoretical, I see actual uses)

I ALSO don't see an investment opportunity in the coins and tokens themselves.

It's like the tech boom, I saw lots of cool stuff, and a whole bunch of companies that were horrible investments. Just because it's listed on the stock market doesn't mean it's a good investment.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> So, as someone who doesn't pay attention I don't get it.
> 
> Isn't the whole FTX thing that they took the money and ran, and never owned the stuff their clients thought they bought?
> Isn't this a pretty basic scam of sending your money to "some guy" on the internet, then being surprised that he was lying?
> 
> I think that people have gotten lazy with regulated banks and securities, not realizing that these other entities aren't managing stuff properly.
> 
> I hope that they don't force everyone to be regulated, and people simply insist on proper asset disclosure from these "exchanges"


Yes pretty much

They operated like a traditional fractional reserve and people just trusted them because they paid Tom Brady. Sadly many influencers didn't call this out because they were all being sponsored by FTX, BlockFi etc

It became known as "VC chains" Solana, Luna, Avalanche etc highly manipulated by VCs. It's pretty much the opposite of decentralization and self-custody


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Savvy crypto bro's will generally say -- "not my keys, not my coins" -- or some such pithy abdication of any role in the arc of crypto fortunes. They will say that the suckers were probably boomers and therefore too dumb to handle crypto investments properly. But they will go on to promote the idea of a crypto decentralized finance economy that will take over, leaving us dumb people behind. And because all that stuff is frictionless. unregulated and very complicated, it will remain full of scams, charlatans simple bugs and risk.


Most people weren't smart enough to use the internet in the 90s either

We will need much better user interfaces with multi-sig wallets with keys stored in secure enclaves on devices (as they already are for all the same encryption you use everyday without knowing) My grandparents never touched the internet and I doubt most people set in their ways will ever knowingly touch a blockchain

It will become transparent to the user and direct blockchain interaction will mostly be between major players


----------



## gardner

MrMatt said:


> It's like the tech boom, I saw lots of cool stuff, and a whole bunch of companies that were horrible investments. Just because it's listed on the stock market doesn't mean it's a good investment.


Maybe. But when I put money in eTrade and use it to buy petfood.com I generally understand my risk to be that petfood.com might not do as well as they hope. I didn't generally have to factor the risk that eTrade might have just pocketed my money and never bought the stock in the first place.



> I ALSO don't see an investment opportunity in the coins and tokens themselves.


Agreed. I think the whole thing is a dangerous grift from top to bottom. The fact that anyone wants a bitcoin is the elusive carrot that keeps the whole house of cards standing. It's like when the teller sees you're drawing a money order for the Nigerian prince, he instead puts the money in his own account and gives you a fake cheque to send. It's all scams, all the way down.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Maybe. But when I put money in eTrade and use it to buy petfood.com I generally understand my risk to be that petfood.com might not do as well as they hope. I didn't generally have to factor the risk that eTrade might have just pocketed my money and never bought the stock in the first place.


That's what Robinhood does

Many gold vaults also sell "paper gold" but never actually buy the gold 1:1 itself

It's called a fractional reserve by the way - it's how Canadian banks operate


----------



## MrMatt

gardner said:


> Maybe. But when I put money in eTrade and use it to buy petfood.com I generally understand my risk to be that petfood.com might not do as well as they hope. I didn't generally have to factor the risk that eTrade might have just pocketed my money and never bought the stock in the first place.


Well that's because the stock market today is highly regulated, a century ago it was a mess, just like the crypto markets today.




> Agreed. I think the whole thing is a dangerous grift from top to bottom. The fact that anyone wants a bitcoin is the elusive carrot that keeps the whole house of cards standing. It's like when the teller sees you're drawing a money order for the Nigerian prince, he instead puts the money in his own account and gives you a fake cheque to send. It's all scams, all the way down.


I don't think it's a 'dangerous grift', I think it's wild gambles on 'assets' of indeterminate value.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> That's what Robinhood does
> 
> Many gold vaults also sell "paper gold" but never actually buy the gold 1:1 itself
> 
> It's called a fractional reserve by the way - it's how Canadian banks operate


But Canadian banks have insurance for counterparty risk in retail accounts and GICs.

If you buy paper gold, the question is what is the underlying risk, and how much real gold is there.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> But Canadian banks have insurance for counterparty risk in retail accounts and GICs.
> 
> If you buy paper gold, the question is what is the underlying risk, and how much real gold is there.


Sure I don't hold my crypto on a centralized exchange in Bahamas or Seychelles

The price of gold is manipulated by paper trading though. JPMorgan and friends have been fined billions for that

FTX selling BTC while holding 0 BTC is like a derivative. US approves BTC futures but not spot ETFs


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> But Canadian banks have insurance for counterparty risk in retail accounts and GICs.
> 
> If you buy paper gold, the question is what is the underlying risk, and how much real gold is there.


It's not like that insurance existed since the beginning of time or that new insurance cannot be created. Things change over time

CDIC was established in 1967. That's not even that long ago. FDIC was established in 1933 I assume AFTER the great depression. I'm sure many insurance services and such will be created. If you are scared to buy an egg roll without insurance, pay 3% fee then

Nothing is free. I'd rather self insure and self custody but for most people they should probably pay for insurance


----------



## sags

gardner said:


> This is completely wrong. They have numerous problems, but being mere links to unverified crud in the vein of goofy monkey NFTs is not one of them.
> 
> Please read something: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_contract


I have read about smart contracts.

Rather than posting a myriad of links, people can simply google useless smart contracts and lots of information will be available to reference.


----------



## sags

FTX and Alameda Research were both owned by SBF.

FTX took cash from customers and gave it to Alameda to use to trade crypto and arbitrage crypto prices on a grand scale. Arbitrage is what SBF started out doing with his own money…then he got greedy.

To hide the misallocation of customer funds he created the FTT token and assigned it an artificial value to declare as assets.

This is common in crypto to assign worthless tokens with a value to claim they are collateralized assets on the balance sheet.

Tether operates in the same dubious fashion and has refused to be fully audited.

The frauds are similar across the crypto universe because they know each other and learned the best ways to scam.

It is all coming down now.

As to holding your crypto in your wallet offline, what is the point of that.

Unless there are trading exchanges the tokens are worthless.

Unless people want to meet in dark allies to trade bitcoins for cash, but who would do that ?


----------



## sags

Some well known crypto exchanges are now saying they will reveal their assets in reserve, but they haven’t done it and when they have it raised more questions about assets that appear to be crypto or undefined junk debt bonds issued by broke third world countries.

The deeper they dig… the more rot they find.

The contagion is now spread into stock markets and banks.

ARRK, Microstrategy,Coinbase, Grayscale Trust, even the pension funds.

It is going to be a big mess.


----------



## Beaver101

sags said:


> Some well known crypto exchanges are now saying they will reveal their assets in reserve, but they haven’t done it and when they have it raised more questions about assets that appear to be crypto or undefined junk debt bonds issued by broke third world countries.
> 
> The deeper they dig… the more rot they find.
> 
> The contagion is now spread into stock markets and banks.
> 
> ARRK, Microstrategy,Coinbase, Grayscale Trust, even the pension funds.
> 
> It is going to be a big mess.


 ... I say "bring it on!!!!" Waaaaayyyy too big to fail here.


----------



## sags

The latest interview with SBF reveals he is hunkered down in an upscale area in the Bahamas and the Bahamian government transferred assets out of FTX to pay Bahamian debts. The US is not impressed and there could be significant political fallout for the Bahamas.

SBF seems totally detached from reality and doesn’t fully appreciate that he may be going to prison for the rest of his life.

Maybe he thinks he is safe in the Bahamas and maybe he is, or maybe not.

He likely will be arrested if he travels anywhere that he can be nabbed.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> The latest interview with SBF reveals he is hunkered down in an upscale area in the Bahamas and the Bahamian government transferred assets out of FTX to pay Bahamian debts. The US is not impressed and there could be significant fallout for the Bahamas.
> 
> SBF seems totally detached from reality and doesn’t fully appreciate that he may be going to prison for the rest of his life.
> 
> Maybe he thinks he is safe in the Bahamas and maybe he is, or maybe not.


Maybe he is safe because he donated $40B to the current US president

Mainstream media is clearly writing biased articles about him and Caroline

Maybe SBF works for the CIA


----------



## sags

Nah… the CIA created Bitcoin to flush out terrorists and drug cartels… and it worked.

But then it took on a life of it’s own and now they are screwed because there is contagion in the financial system.

They want it to die a natural death so they don’t have to admit what they did.

If SBF is working for the CIA and went rogue on them, somebody high up in the agency screwed up big time.

I wouldn’t want to be SBF if that were true.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Some well known crypto exchanges are now saying they will reveal their assets in reserve, but they haven’t done it and when they have it raised more questions about assets that appear to be crypto or undefined junk debt bonds issued by broke third world countries.
> 
> The deeper they dig… the more rot they find.
> 
> The contagion is now spread into stock markets and banks.
> 
> ARRK, Microstrategy,Coinbase, Grayscale Trust, even the pension funds.
> 
> It is going to be a big mess.


Your boy Jim Cramer says it's fine so that means hedge funds want exit liquidity

Silvergate Bank is also probably in there


----------



## sags

That looks like a fake tweet.


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> It's not like that insurance existed since the beginning of time or that new insurance cannot be created. Things change over time


Of course not, but if you can't get a reputable insurer, maybe it's not as low risk as you think.

They could have easily hired Lloyds to insure them, they already insure crypto.
Of course they would have investigated and refused to insure the scam companies, because they were scams.


----------



## TomB16

I've always felt crypto might be real. If enough people believe in it as currency, it can work.

The idea of unregulated exchanges, however, does seem likely to have infinitesimal opportunity to be equitable.

So, I've never owned anything block chain related.

The idea that legions of people under 30 think crypto is some sort of money tree that generates wealth for all tells me there is an unlimited supply of people with less intellect than a bag of luke warm dog feces.


----------



## MrMatt

TomB16 said:


> I've always felt crypto might be real. If enough people believe in it as currency, it can work.
> 
> The idea of unregulated exchanges, however, does seem likely to have infinitesimal opportunity to be equitable.


What is more equitable, a cash only market (farmers market, flea market etc), or buying an item from Loblaws or Amazon?

I think the opportunity to create new types of exchanges and interactions has far more opportunity to be equitable.
Simply building an unregulated amazon isn't likely to be the way that happens.



> The idea that legions of people under 30 think crypto is some sort of money tree that generates wealth for all tells me there is an unlimited supply of people with less intellect than a bag of luke warm dog feces.


Any "get rich quick" without doing any work or providing anything of value in return is likely to end in tears.


----------



## nathan79

TomB16 said:


> The idea that legions of people under 30 think crypto is some sort of money tree that generates wealth for all tells me there is an unlimited supply of people with less intellect than a bag of luke warm dog feces.


Kinda like how people over 30 view real estate, even though it produces nothing and is basically a ponzi supported by immigration.


----------



## m3s

nathan79 said:


> Kinda like how people over 30 view real estate, even though it produces nothing and is basically a ponzi supported by immigration.


And artificial scarcity supported by boomers in city hall protecting their RE bags instead of approving development like responsible humans

It's all the same. Even gold is just paper trading and manipulated

It's ok long term care provided by the military will be gucci for the boomers


----------



## TomB16

nathan79 said:


> Kinda like how people over 30 view real estate, even though it produces nothing and is basically a ponzi supported by immigration.


Real estate produces nothing? Where do you suppose the revenue from my commercial building comes from?

I take it you are a big crypto fan and were insulted by my unflattering assessment of it. I hope you didn't take my flip one liner personally, however, it is incontrovertible that RE is a productive asset over here in base reality while crypto is a speculative commodity.


----------



## m3s

TomB16 said:


> Real estate produces nothing? Where do you suppose the revenue from my commercial building comes from?


Do you still think the internet produces nothing?

Do you think a townhouse built by amateurs in a swampland outside a major Canadian city is worth $800k?

RE is just as speculative as anything else and mostly propped up by crony boomer elites living in Mexico


----------



## m3s

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595924571101831168

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595890190727405570


----------



## TomB16

A couple of thoughts.

Cathie Wood predicts BTC will hit $1M.

Also, I think BTC has proven by now it is not a scam. Everything else in crypto orbit seems to be a scam but I don't see anything specifically corrupt about the idea of an unregulated currency.


----------



## Freedom2022

Bitcoin is accepted as payment by some companies. There are bitcoin ATM. So, it is a digital currency. The major risk for bitcoin is when it is not profitable to do mining, then the blockchain may collapse.


----------



## Beaver101

TomB16 said:


> A couple of thoughts.
> 
> Cathie Wood predicts BTC will hit $1M.
> 
> Also, I think BTC has proven by now it is not a scam. Everything else in crypto orbit seems to be a scam but* I don't see anything specifically corrupt about the idea of an unregulated currency*.


 ... did you buy any BTC(s) for your RRSP or RRIF or LIF? How about your TFSA? No? Then buy some. How about one even. 

After all, if you would believe in Ms. Woods and the likes that BTC will hit $1M, then why wait until 65 to retire? You can retire before you hit 20 years old.


----------



## m3s

Freedom2022 said:


> Bitcoin is accepted as payment by some companies. There are bitcoin ATM. So, it is a digital currency. The major risk for bitcoin is when it is not profitable to do mining, then the blockchain may collapse.


It rebalances mathematically on its own

Right now the weakest BTC miners are failing and liquidating their equipment. Maybe they had too much debt or their setup just isn't competitive anymore. As miners quit it automatically becomes more profitable for the healthiest miners. This is healthy. The strongest miners are also pressured to keep equipment upgraded or they will become weak due to technological advances or just hardware attrition. They also have to be energy efficient to survive

Meanwhile the legacy finance is running on 1980s computers and code that nobody fan fix anymore. It's not efficient, healthy or sustainable and will eventually fail.


----------



## TomB16

I'm 55 and have been retired for a year. We did ok with real estate and plain old publicly traded companies. Oh... And working like morons while saving every damn nickel. Not rich but happy.

No crypto for me. No art. No precious metals. No alternative asset classes. No need. Just living below our means and long term investing.


----------



## m3s

TomB16 said:


> I'm 55 and have been retired for a year. We did ok with real estate and plain old publicly traded companies. Oh... And working like morons while saving every damn nickel. Not rich but happy.
> 
> No crypto for me. No art. No precious metals. No alternative asset classes. No need. Just living below our means and long term investing.


I could have retired mid-30s even before I touched crypto

When I was 16 I flew across the country to good old Regina airport for basic training in Dundurn. That was easy compared to working on a farm since I could walk. Everyone's situation is so different it's pointless to compare. 

No 20-something today could repeat what you did the same way though. Everyone has to work with the cards they have.


----------



## Gator13

m3s said:


> I could have retired mid-30s even before I touched crypto
> 
> When I was 16 I flew across the country to good old Regina airport for basic training in Dundurn. That was easy compared to working on a farm since I could walk. Everyone's situation is so different it's pointless to compare.
> 
> No 20-something today could repeat what you did the same way though. Everyone has to work with the cards they have.


If you joined the military and could retire by mid 30's, why can't someone in their 20's do it now? I have millennial family members that are doing as good or better that I was doing at their age. Cheers


----------



## m3s

Gator13 said:


> If you joined the military and could retire by mid 30's, why can't someone in their 20's do it now? I have millennial family members that are doing as good or better that I was doing at their age. Cheers


There's always ways for people to sacrifice and/or succeed by out maneuvering the sheep but don't fall into a trap of thinking you can do the exact same as TomB or I decades later.

Most bases don't have much jobs for spouses plus you have to move every 2-4 years so spouses won't have a career. Meanwhile Canada is a dual income society at this point. Pension and benefits were also neutered while contributions increased significantly. Base housing is pretty much gone or market rate for inferior housing.

My first house was 2x income and that is not possible today. You could always have 5 roommates but the days of buying a house and raising a family in your 20s on a single income are gone

If you did worse before then maybe your are comparing to someone who who is being smarter. Impossible to know with so little anecdotal information


----------



## Gator13

m3s said:


> There's always ways for people to sacrifice and/or succeed by out maneuvering the sheep but don't fall into a trap of thinking you can do the exact same as TomB or I decades later.
> 
> Most bases don't have much jobs for spouses plus you have to move every 2-4 years so spouses won't have a career. Meanwhile Canada is a dual income society at this point. Pension and benefits were also neutered while contributions increased significantly. Base housing is pretty much gone or market rate for inferior housing.
> 
> My first house was 2x income and that is not possible today. You could always have 5 roommates but the days of buying a house and raising a family in your 20s on a single income are gone
> 
> If you did worse before then maybe your are comparing to someone who who is being smarter. Impossible to know with so little anecdotal information


Ah, I believe I misunderstood. I did not realize you were being specific to someone on a military salary being able to replicate your wealth accumulation due to increases in real estate.

When you mention being able to retire in your mid 30's, does that scenario mean selling your home, and living in a more affordable country?


----------



## m3s

Gator13 said:


> Ah, I believe I misunderstood. I did not realize you were being specific to someone on a military salary being able to replicate your wealth accumulation due to increases in real estate.
> 
> When you mention being able to retire in your mid 30's, does that scenario mean selling your home, and living in a more affordable country?


I've never said anyone could replicate my wealth accumulation on a military salary. They would first have to start working 3-4 jobs in highschool, get a full scholarship, work through university and save for a house downpayment by 23. RE gains and losses, stock gains and losses evened out to about average. It was pretty much just work more, travel more for work and save more.

To retire in early to mid-30s yes that would be living modestly by boomer expectations. Not retiring with a 4 bdr 2 car garage house, cabin on a lake, several new SUVs, 50' RV, boat and dependents. I would rather travel and have less material and financial obligations that were considered normal for boomers. Lots of young people have pulled this off with alternate lifestyles

Living in a more affordable country is just smart. You get better weather, more value, lower taxes and less waiting for healthcare. Everyone has their own preferences and there are many ways to do things. It's certainly not as easy as it was before. Single income families are not buying a house and raising kids in 20s, paying for those kids school and the retiring in luxury.

Nowadays you'd have to sacrifice more to pull of the same accomplishments. Don't expect real estate to do another 10x in the next decade. It's just not possible. Younger people are pushed further out on the risk curve for the same reward and here we have boomers criticizing them for trying. Heck remember when savings accounts paid more than 1%? Good luck with that today


----------



## Gator13

m3s said:


> I've never said anyone could replicate my wealth accumulation on a military salary. They would first have to start working 3-4 jobs in highschool, get a full scholarship, work through university and save for a house downpayment by 23. RE gains and losses, stock gains and losses evened out to about average. It was pretty much just work more, travel more for work and save more.
> 
> To retire in early to mid-30s yes that would be living modestly by boomer expectations. Not retiring with a 4 bdr 2 car garage house, cabin on a lake, several new SUVs, 50' RV, boat and dependents. I would rather travel and have less material and financial obligations that were considered normal for boomers. Lots of young people have pulled this off with alternate lifestyles
> 
> Living in a more affordable country is just smart. You get better weather, more value, lower taxes and less waiting for healthcare. Everyone has their own preferences and there are many ways to do things. It's certainly not as easy as it was before. Single income families are not buying a house and raising kids in 20s, paying for those kids school and the retiring in luxury.
> 
> Nowadays you'd have to sacrifice more to pull of the same accomplishments. Don't expect real estate to do another 10x in the next decade. It's just not possible. Younger people are pushed further out on the risk curve for the same reward and here we have boomers criticizing them for trying. Heck remember when savings accounts paid more than 1%? Good luck with that today


So, did you receive your education through the Armed forces? Are you still active? Cheers


----------



## sags

Another one bites the dust....

They owe some trust fund $750 million and somewhere between $1 billion and $10 billion, but who knows with crypto crap.

Maybe Binance will create some cool sounding techie tokens and save the day.

They are also registered in the Bahamas, who according to the Bahamians have the very best regulatory system in the world.......yea, sure they do.

_*BlockFi — which was last valued at $4.8 billion, according to PitchBook........🦄*_ and _*🌈*_









Crypto firm BlockFi files for bankruptcy as FTX fallout spreads


BlockFi was one of the first firms to be "rescued" by former billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX earlier this year.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## Faramir

m3s said:


> Can you see how much money is in your bank's reserve? In the US since 2020 they are required to maintain 0% reserve. Not a single mention of this in the news
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594867335659229185


Someone questioned my knowledge on banking reserve ratios. I was of the impression that bank can have $10,000 in deposits and lend out $100,000 in fake money with a 10% reserve ratio.


----------



## m3s

Faramir said:


> Someone questioned my knowledge on banking reserve ratios. I was of the impression that bank can have $10,000 in deposits and lend out $100,000 in fake money with a 10% reserve ratio.


Apparently Canada has 0 reserve requirements

I know the US has 0 reserve requirements as of 2020. This is modern monetary theory where they just print magic money out of a federal reserve (which has 0 reserve itself)

Canada sold all its gold so it also has no reserve. Boomers pulled the wool over our eyes and will be gone before we realize it


----------



## sags

If the banks couldn't lend out the customer money on deposit, they wouldn't pay any interest on it and would charge customers to keep it safe.......like they did in the days of the Old West.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> If the banks couldn't lend out the customer money on deposit, they wouldn't pay any interest on it and would charge customers to keep it safe.......like they did in the Old West.


They don't pay interest

If only there was a way to self-custody our own money

CBDC will make the banks pointless


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Apparently Canada has 0 reserve requirements
> 
> I know the US has 0 reserve requirements as of 2020. This is modern monetary theory where they just print magic money out of a federal reserve (which has 0 reserve itself)
> 
> Canada sold all its gold so it also has no reserve. Boomers pulled the wool over our eyes and will be gone before we realize it


I'm pretty sure Canada still has reserve requirements.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> I'm pretty sure Canada still has reserve requirements.


According to wikipedia it was abolished in 1992

When I googled it I found this source from bank of Canada? https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp97-8.pdf

Either way it's amazing that neither of us know this. It's as if the media never mentioned it once

"Monetary policy can be implemented effectively with zero reserve requirements. A number of countries now have no requirement, such as Australia, Belgium, Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. In others, including the United States and France, the level of minimum deposits at the central bank has fallen to very low levels, in large part because banks have found ways to avoid reserve requirements."


----------



## m3s

So the boomer elite managed to implement zero reserve requirements without anybody even hearing about it, sell all the gold reserves, spend all the proceeds and then rack up unprecedented debts

Truly amazing time and it looks like the boomers will quietly fade away before anybody even notices the sleight of hand they pulled off. The pre-internet era relied on mainstream media to keep everyone informed

This will not end well. You can only give everybody $600 cheques to keep them happy for so long. Next thing you know houses will be $1M


----------



## sags

Wow.......you should study economics and finance at CNBC.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> Wow.......you should study economics and finance at CNBC.


US quickly/quietly moved to a 0 reserve requirement at the start of the pandemic

We had CNBC on at work at the time and they never mentioned it at all


----------



## Faramir

m3s said:


> Apparently Canada has 0 reserve requirements
> 
> I know the US has 0 reserve requirements as of 2020. This is modern monetary theory where they just print magic money out of a federal reserve (which has 0 reserve itself)
> 
> Canada sold all its gold so it also has no reserve. Boomers pulled the wool over our eyes and will be gone before we realize it


And the USA has something they quaintly call monetization. They simply print dollars to pay off the debt.


----------



## Faramir

sags said:


> If the banks couldn't lend out the customer money on deposit, they wouldn't pay any interest on it and would charge customers to keep it safe.......like they did in the days of the Old West.


And in the days of the Venetian Republic. Fees were charged for holding gold. If you had $100 in gold on deposit, the bank could only lend out $100. To do anything else was considered criminal.


----------



## Faramir

m3s said:


> So the boomer elite managed to implement zero reserve requirements without anybody even hearing about it, sell all the gold reserves, spend all the proceeds and then rack up unprecedented debts
> 
> Truly amazing time and it looks like the boomers will quietly fade away before anybody even notices the sleight of hand they pulled off. The pre-internet era relied on mainstream media to keep everyone informed
> 
> This will not end well. You can only give everybody $600 cheques to keep them happy for so long. Next thing you know houses will be $1M


Well you shouldn't see boomers as a monolithic group. But yes their GENERATION set up the pyramid schemes of spending. As long as the working population was growing they could put the reckoning until another day in the future. Nixon the crook took the USA off the gold standard. Since then government spending exploded.


----------



## sags

Sutton's law refers to the simplest explanation for an event.

It is named after US bank robber Willy Sutton who it was said answered a reporter's question of why he robbed banks by saying......"because that is where the money is".

Banks used to charge fees to hold people's money and why not when they had to hire armed guards and were robbed on a regular basis.

Apparently people weren't all that interested in "self custody" of their money. I doubt their attitude on that has changed much.

As to gold, Warren Buffet had some interesting things to say on that. Maybe banks should hold egg laying geese as reserves.

_Mr. Buffett is not a fan of gold as an investment. Here are a few of his comments about the precious metal:

“[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”

Referring to gold,* “it’s a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs* than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that.”

“You could take all the gold that’s ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what it’s worth at current gold prices, you could buy — not some — all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils (XOM), plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?”

What's interesting about these quotes is that they don't apply to Barrick Gold. *Unlike gold, Barrick Gold "keeps laying eggs" in the form of profits and dividends.* It doesn't bury the gold in the ground, it sells it to others who bury it in the ground.

And Berkshire Hathaway is happy to collect the dividends from other's foolishness._


----------



## m3s

Faramir said:


> Well you shouldn't see boomers as a monolithic group. But yes their GENERATION set up the pyramid schemes of spending. As long as the working population was growing they could put the reckoning until another day in the future. Nixon the crook took the USA off the gold standard. Since then government spending exploded.


Why do you think Canada is brining in millions of immigrants even though we don't have enough doctors, houses or public infrastructure to support the population as is?

Need wage slaves to prop up the bottom of the pyramid


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> _What's interesting about these quotes is that they don't apply to Barrick Gold. *Unlike gold, Barrick Gold "keeps laying eggs" in the form of profits and dividends.* It doesn't bury the gold in the ground, it sells it to others who bury it in the ground.
> 
> And Berkshire Hathaway is happy to collect the dividends from other's foolishness._


Your first statement applies to BTC miners

Your second statement applies to staking. As long as I see others willing to spend fees to use a blockchain I am happy to process their transaction and collect the fees

Times change and it was impossible for my grandparents to ever understand the internet. Now old people waste their time on the internet trying to discredit things they'll never understand or use

It's as impossible for you to understand as the internet was to old people before. It didn't impact them they could still bank in person for their lifetime without having to understand it


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Why do you think Canada is brining in millions of immigrants even though we don't have enough doctors, houses or public infrastructure to support the population as is?
> 
> Need wage slaves to prop up the bottom of the pyramid


We're bringing in millions of immigrants we don't have houses for because it allows Trudeau to virtue signal that he cares.

The fact that we have millons stuck living in poverty also gives him great photo ops as he promises to do something, bonus points for a little tear in his eye.


----------



## KaeJS

m3s said:


> Why do you think Canada is brining in millions of immigrants even though we don't have enough doctors, houses or public infrastructure to support the population as is?
> 
> Need wage slaves to prop up the bottom of the pyramid


This is so sad but true and it kills my soul everyday.


----------



## Faramir

m3s said:


> Why do you think Canada is brining in millions of immigrants even though we don't have enough doctors, houses or public infrastructure to support the population as is?
> 
> Need wage slaves to prop up the bottom of the pyramid


Yes but it is dangerous policy. We should we bringing in good workers, say like persecuted farmers from South Africa; and not bringing in more fake Syrian refugees. Canada has a laughable 50% entrance rate on refugee claimants. The UK rate is 15%. 15% of those that apply get accepted.


----------



## Faramir

MrMatt said:


> We're bringing in millions of immigrants we don't have houses for because it allows Trudeau to virtue signal that he cares.
> 
> The fact that we have millons stuck living in poverty also gives him great photo ops as he promises to do something, bonus points for a little tear in his eye.


Sadly Trudeau is just one of many virtue signalers many being in the corporate world. But yes he is the champion of virtue signalers.


----------



## MrBlackhill

m3s said:


> immigrants even though we don't have enough doctors, houses or public infrastructure


All the immigrants I know who came here recently are all doctors or healthcare specialists or construction workers or teachers or IT, etc. People are coming in to fill the jobs that we need.

All the doctors and nurses I've had to deal with recently were immigrants. I'm happy to have those immigrants to support that much needed workforce.


----------



## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> All the immigrants I know who came here recently are all doctors or healthcare specialists or construction workers or teachers or IT, etc. People are coming in to fill the jobs that we need.
> 
> All the doctors and nurses I've had to deal with recently were immigrants. I'm happy to have those immigrants to support that much needed workforce.


You need to get out more.
The vast majority of immigration to Canada isn't doctors and other professionals.


----------



## m3s

I don't think professionals in Canada can even move to a different province and set up shop without going through all the provincial requirements

There's lots of professional immigrants in Canada but a lot of them are driving taxi. It's not like a dr from another country can just start practicing here


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> I don't think professionals in Canada can even move to a different province and set up shop without going through all the provincial requirements
> 
> There's lots of professional immigrants in Canada but a lot of them are driving taxi. It's not like a dr from another country can just start practicing here


For provincially regulated professions, you can't.
However they've done quite a bit of work to make it easier.

Also immigrants are different classes. I know an immigrant who sat on an experience screening board.

Some had excellent credentials and experience and quickly got licenses.
Some were shockingly bad, like literally arguing with fundamentals of the field.

The education/experience in some places is vastly substandard by Canadian standards.

Secondly you have to understand that cultural differences can be a HUGE deal.
1. In some places that have high corruption, they simply don't understand our system yet. 
- If they ask the board how much it costs to pass, you've got a serious ethical problem with that professional.
2. If they refuse to speak to a member of the board because of race/gender/religion etc, you have a problem with that person.
Imagine a doctor refusing to answer the questions of a female board member because they don't talk to women.


Finally many of those "doctors" driving cabs aren't doctors, they just think it gets better tips.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> The education/experience in some places is vastly substandard by Canadian standards.
> 
> Secondly you have to understand that cultural differences can be a HUGE deal.


For example we must ensure Canadian Doctors from substandard cultures with unacceptable cultural medical practices understand that circumcision is a valid cultural medical procedure in Canada and has nothing to do with religious beliefs

They must also learn the proper titles of "Your Worship" and "Your Highness" and swear on the holy bible in court and government buildings


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> For example we must ensure Canadian Doctors from substandard cultures with unacceptable cultural medical practices understand that circumcision is a valid cultural medical procedure in Canada and has nothing to do with religious beliefs


Genital mutilation of children without their consent is an unacceptable practice and should result in sanctions for the practitioners.
I don't understand people being so obsessed with childrens genitals, it's kind of disgusting. 

It's also completely off topic for a crypto thread.


----------



## m3s

Medical graduate probably helps one through the immigration process but most don't get to practice


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598457220622065664


----------



## MrMatt

m3s said:


> Medical graduate probably helps one through the immigration process but most don't get to practice


That's because the Federal immigration system doesn't work with the accrediting bodies.

Those stats are misleading.
I know, as in personally met and interacted with, some "foreign doctors". 
Some are good, some are scary bad.

The "gatekeepers" are supposed to do that, we don't want unqualified people practicing here.

The real question is if the reasons for holding them back or rejecting their credentials are valid or not.
If they are rejecting credentials for valid reasons, GOOD!

What I'd like to see is a non-partisan investigation to ensure that the vetting committees are being fair.


----------



## londoncalling

Back on topic. Episode 200 of Rational Reminder Professor Eugene Fama perhaps the most well known expert on market efficiency, provides his opinion on crypto. Always enjoy listen to Dr. Fama but feel free to skip towards the end for the discussion on crypto.

(3) RR #200 - Prof. Eugene Fama - YouTube

Bonus fact: current investment thesis and modeling uses previous data (outdated)
Bonus obvious fact: "if you look at the investment business, 90% of it is marketing"


----------



## m3s

londoncalling said:


> Back on topic. Episode 200 of Rational Reminder Professor Eugene Fama perhaps the most well known expert on market efficiency, provides his opinion on crypto. Always enjoy listen to Dr. Fama but feel free to skip towards the end for the discussion on crypto.
> 
> (3) RR #200 - Prof. Eugene Fama - YouTube
> 
> Bonus fact: current investment thesis and modeling uses previous data (outdated)
> Bonus obvious fact: "if you look at the investment business, 90% of it is marketing"


Not bad for an old fella. Nice to see he is open minded at least. He's no expert on this particular topic though

He acknowledged the distinction between medium of exchange and blockchain. He acknowledged stablecoins but then claimed blockchains use far too much energy to be adopted. Most of the stablecoins today run on Proof of Stake which is 99% more energy efficient than Proof of Work such as Bitcoin which has no native assets such as stablecoins.

BTC should be compared to a store of value such as gold and Proof of Work should be compared to mining valuable assets such as gold. BTC is more efficient than mining, transporting and storing/protecting gold. Proof of Stake is far more energy efficient than all the sky scrapers of privatized banks it could replace.

Proof of Work can also run on energy that is being wasted such as gar flare offs in Texas/Alerta, or renewable energy that is just located too far away to be used by a population. This is actually driving the development of renewable and wasted energy and those are the ones who will survive the bear market

To the marketing point unfortunately the scams are the ones with all the marketing and unfortunately people don't learn enough to differentiate


----------



## londoncalling

He is not nor do I think would he claim to be a crypto expert. What I do appreciate about his commentary is that he doesn't dismiss it as garbage but can rationalize that the development of crypto and moreso blockchain will serve utilitarian purpose. IMO, this is the greatest value of the development and not the speculative investment that comes with it. 

I think looking back the move away from the gold standard and reserve currency will be viewed as a mistake which required us to create a zero rate stimulus world of money printing. I am not sure where blockchain and crypto will take us but I am curiously optimistic.


----------



## m3s

londoncalling said:


> I think looking back the move away from the gold standard and reserve currency will be viewed as a mistake which required us to create a zero rate stimulus world of money printing. I am not sure where blockchain and crypto will take us but I am curiously optimistic.


Gold is one thing - store of value

I never got into BTC or gold because I have a similar mindset as Warren Buffet on store of value. If you are producing/creating value somewhere else and need a way to store and/or transport that value then gold/BTC may work. Now we have real current world examples in Lebanon and Ukraine where a person would be wise to use BTC or gold to protect/transport value. Maybe you trust our Canadian 0 reserve banks today but not everyone in the world has that luxury and the reality is these banks are extremely fragile.

Jason Lowery is writing a MIT thesis and eventually a book on how all animals and human protect our resources with projection of power. For us it's the military (the US military projects power to protect Canadian resources) His thesis is called Softwar and has the best agruments for Proof of Work I have seen by far. He also has the Pentagon's ears as a US Space Force senior officer.

I'm more interested in smart contracts and DeFi

These are far more messy and experimental. There are many exploits and scams but the space will need time to develop. The better ones are going slow and using universities to research properly. What we had this cycle was basically "test in prod" code and we saw a lot of experiments fail. Now the ones that are building slowly have taken notes and have time to build better systems during this bear market. One of the biggest developments will be on-chain governance.

Ethereum and all of its DAOs are still controlled by a select few people who hold the keys. Their votes are done off chain and someone with keys has to execute that vote on chain. Smart contracts can replicate everything in legacy finance with only a few contracts and then it can do things we never had before. But for this to work we need much better data feeds (oracles) and things like on-chain governance


----------



## gardner

Here's a fun DeFi story where a smart contract bug caused a little havoc.

The Ankr DeFi protocol suffered an exploit of their aBNBc token wherein an attacker, and possible subsequent copycat attackers, used a vulnerability in the project smart contract to mint quadrillions of aBNBc, which they then swapped to various other tokens netting $5 million.

Meanwhile an issue with the price oracle on the staking platform Helio allowed attackers to borrow Helio HAY stablecoin using worthless aBNBc token. The attackers then swapped those HAY for around $15 million in the BUSD stablecoin. As a result of that, the HAY stablecoin lost its peg, crashing as low as $0.20 before recovering to about $0.90 this morning.









How Attackers Made $15M From Staking Platform Helio After Ankr Exploit


A delay in updating price data on BNB-related derivative tokens allowed some exploiters to piggyback off a previous attack.




www.coindesk.com





The amounts are not huge, but it does illustrate little about the actual risk still in DeFi protocols.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Here's a fun DeFi story where a smart contract bug caused a little havoc.
> 
> The Ankr DeFi protocol suffered an exploit of their aBNBc token wherein an attacker, and possible subsequent copycat attackers, used a vulnerability in the project smart contract to mint quadrillions of aBNBc, which they then swapped to various other tokens netting $5 million.
> 
> Meanwhile an issue with the price oracle on the staking platform Helio allowed attackers to borrow Helio HAY stablecoin using worthless aBNBc token. The attackers then swapped those HAY for around $15 million in the BUSD stablecoin. As a result of that, the HAY stablecoin lost its peg, crashing as low as $0.20 before recovering to about $0.90 this morning.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Attackers Made $15M From Staking Platform Helio After Ankr Exploit
> 
> 
> A delay in updating price data on BNB-related derivative tokens allowed some exploiters to piggyback off a previous attack.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.coindesk.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The amounts are not huge, but it does illustrate little about the actual risk still in DeFi protocols.


Yea I don't touch Binance chain.

They basically took the ethereum client and tweaked a few parameters it to make it run faster/cheaper but they control all the nodes. It's not sustainable because the state grows too fast and it will never be decentralized. Cheap/fast is also much easier to attack

Great place to test/deploy DeFi faster but not a place I would use


----------



## gardner

m3s said:


> Gold is one thing - store of value


Gold actually has a lot of value as an industrial material that is still irreplaceable by other substances. The biggest is in electronics where it is used extensively. Of course it is used in jewellery where its resistance to corrosion is most significant. Gold is still preferred in dentistry due to its malleability and corrosion resistance.


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> Gold actually has a lot of value as an industrial material that is still irreplaceable by other substances. The biggest is in electronics where it is used extensively. Of course it is used in jewellery where its resistance to corrosion is most significant. Gold is still preferred in dentistry due to its malleability and corrosion resistance.


Sure but the vast majority of it is hoarded in expensive vaults and rehypothecated to all the retail speculators paper gold in digital brokerage accounts

It's not as easy to self-custody, verify or transport. So it has some real-world use but it's relatively tiny.


----------



## gardner

More fun FTX fallout: Crypto broker Genesis and its parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG) are caught short due to the FTX collapse to the tune of $900m, mostly owed to another domino in the chain, crypto exchange Gemini.



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-crypto-broker-genesis-owes-131056348.html


----------



## m3s

gardner said:


> More fun FTX fallout: Crypto broker Genesis and its parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG) are caught short due to the FTX collapse to the tune of $900m, mostly owed to another domino in the chain, crypto exchange Gemini.


All this is breaking on twitter a long time ago 😅

Caroline was spotted in NYC today buying a coffee. Don't know if it's true but people called the coffee shop to verify

SBF was invited to a congressional hearing on FTX next week. He was on twitter spaces all weekend


----------



## sags

Lawyers cant understand why SBF is giving interviews all over, but some say he is trying to shape the narrative that he is just a dummy who made innocent mistakes.

He also points the finger at Alameda, claiming he was being careful to avoid a conflict of interest and is playing the Sgt. Shultz role from the Hogans Heroes show years ago…I know nothing, I see nothing, I say nothing…

Some high profile people say they believe him, but most dont. The guy went to MIT after all.

It is looking a lot like some people dont want the DOJ to dig too deep into it.

I get the feeling there is a big pile of strange stuff here and who knows who was doing what with whom.

Epstein, Zelenski, politicians, regulators, CIA, lots of story plot lines out there.

I do wonder about my theory the CIA created bitcoins as a trial social experiment on digital currency acceptance by the public and let it get out of hand and are now scrambling to do damage control by crashing crypto markets.

Maybe related or maybe not…3 high profile Russians involved in crypto have died suddenly recently.


----------



## sags

I dont think Gemini admitted to that level of involvement of losses though.

So the big unanswered question is where is the $10 billion or more?

It didnt’t just get up and walk away and wasn’t stuffed into a couple of suitcases.

That is 10,000 million dollars somewhere.


----------



## gardner

Small potatoes, but fun nevertheless...









Orthogonal Trading defaults on $36 million of loans on Maple Finance


The trading firm defaulted on its loans because it had a large amount of funds left on collapsed crypto exchange FTX.




www.theblock.co







> Orthogonal Trading is insolvent, defaults on $36 million in loans and attributes the insolvency to FTX exposure.
> 
> Orthogonal Credit, a sister group, published a blog post distancing themselves, writing that they were "shocked and dismayed" by Trading's misrepresentation. "We are speechless by the extent of the exposure and liquidity position of Orthogonal Trading’s book of business."


Speechless!

No word how Maple Finance, the next domino in the chain, is prepared to handle this default.


----------



## m3s

sags said:


> So the big unanswered question is where is the $10 billion or more?
> 
> It didnt’t just get up and walk away and wasn’t stuffed into a couple of suitcases.
> 
> That is 10,000 million dollars somewhere.


Money was deposited into banks such as Silvergate who rehypothecate it who knows how many times because banks have no reserve requiremnt

Reality is all the money is being lent out so many times to make money off money with financial engineering. Warren Buffet calls derivatives "Weapons of mass destruction" yet CNBC and the MSM never talk about them.

Bank of International Settlements report says there is over $25T of this off-balance sheet debt. Just one massive fractional reserve house of cards (not even fractional anymore it's 0)


----------



## gardner

Possibly a sign of things to come: the accounting firm Mazars Group which until a few days ago was auditor to Binance, KuCoin, and Crypto.com has abruptly announced it has cut ties with the crypto sector. A statement from the firm attributed their decision to "concerns regarding the way these reports are understood by the public". Previous "proof of reserves" reports it had prepared for Binance and Crypto.com have been removed from their web site.









Accountant That Vetted Binance Reserves Halts Crypto Work


Mazars Group, the accounting firm used by crypto giant Binance Holdings Ltd. and other big players in the industry to vouch for their assets held in reserve, has halted all such work for crypto clients, dealing a blow to an industry seeking to shore up confidence in the wake of FTX’s collapse.




www.bloomberg.com





Christmas is coming. I wonder if Santa is going to put a crypto implosion under my tree?


----------



## m3s

CZ appears very defensive/rattled lately

They have massive withdrawals as people lose confidence in the centralized exchanges - so he is probably losing revenue as people can just use DEX instead now (fees are much lower during bear market)

Even CZ has said for a long time these proof of reserves and audits are pointless. It's like the CRA writing rules about crypto - they are making it up as they go

What came first - the horseless carriage automobile or the rules of the road? Seatbelts? Car inspections?


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## sags

It appears blockchain technology doesn't match all the hype.

_The experience also raised questions of a mismatch between the promises and reality of the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies. Use of a distributed ledger in Australia's critical financial infrastructure would have been one of the most significant applications of blockchain-based systems in a mainstream corporate setting.

"The ASX could have chosen a steady and stable clearing and settlement system (but) chose a cutting edge, bleeding edge technology that was unproven, untried," said Michael Somes, general counsel of Cboe Australia, a securities and derivatives exchange involved in the project.

"ASX's choices have resulted in one of the biggest critical service stuff-ups seen in financial markets globally." On top of the A$245-A$255 million ($164-171 million) charge ASX plans to take for the debacle, market players estimate that together they spent about that again preparing for the rollout, including on software upgrades, airfares and employee hours spent attending webinars and consultations. At a parliamentary hearing this month, ASX apologized for the failure but denied misleading the market or regulators. Chairman Damian Roche, when asked by lawmakers about a statement in the company's 2021 annual report that the project had "moved from the design and build phase to testing and delivery", said the claim referred to "functional" parts of the software, not "non-functional" parts like security and scalability.

An ASX spokesperson told Reuters in an email that the company gave project updates based on the latest available information and some challenges "only became apparent as we reached the latter stages"._

Australian stock exchange's blockchain failure burns market trust (msn.com)


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## m3s

sags said:


> It appears blockchain technology doesn't match all the hype.
> 
> _The experience also raised questions of a mismatch between the promises and reality of the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies. Use of a distributed ledger in Australia's critical financial infrastructure would have been one of the most significant applications of blockchain-based systems in a mainstream corporate setting.
> 
> "The ASX could have chosen a steady and stable clearing and settlement system (but) chose a cutting edge, bleeding edge technology that was unproven, untried," said Michael Somes, general counsel of Cboe Australia, a securities and derivatives exchange involved in the project.
> 
> "ASX's choices have resulted in one of the biggest critical service stuff-ups seen in financial markets globally." On top of the A$245-A$255 million ($164-171 million) charge ASX plans to take for the debacle, market players estimate that together they spent about that again preparing for the rollout, including on software upgrades, airfares and employee hours spent attending webinars and consultations. At a parliamentary hearing this month, ASX apologized for the failure but denied misleading the market or regulators. Chairman Damian Roche, when asked by lawmakers about a statement in the company's 2021 annual report that the project had "moved from the design and build phase to testing and delivery", said the claim referred to "functional" parts of the software, not "non-functional" parts like security and scalability.
> 
> An ASX spokesperson told Reuters in an email that the company gave project updates based on the latest available information and some challenges "only became apparent as we reached the latter stages"._
> 
> Australian stock exchange's blockchain failure burns market trust (msn.com)


Hopefully the Australian government doesn't throw money at failed projects like we did on GM

Italy just announced they will use Algorand. It's probably the most advanced and government friendly

Your level of logic is saying the internet doesn't match the hype because a random pets.com failed in 1999


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## gardner

Just another FTX domino: market maker Auros filed for bankruptcy protection in the British Virgin Islands after missing ~10M in payments to the Maple DeFi lender, all due to their assets being frozen inside FTX -- and likely long gone, of course.









Auros bankruptcy protection filings show funds tied up on FTX


Auros filed for application for bankruptcy protection after $20 million in company funds became frozen on FTX, court documents show.




www.theblock.co





Unrelated, but interestingly the peer-to-peer crypto marketplace Paxful announced that it will be delisting Ether saying the decision was based on Ethereum moving from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, not being decentralized, and spawning an ecosystem of scammy Ethereum-based altcoins. To me, this feels like a signal that Paxful is on the level as it's a pretty big move to cut off such a big chunk of the crypto space.


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## gardner

This looks like fun for the whole family: a new product to streamline the process of losing your house speculating on Bitcoin.


https://www.swanbitcoin.com/homeequity/


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## m3s

gardner said:


> Unrelated, but interestingly the peer-to-peer crypto marketplace Paxful announced that it will be delisting Ether saying the decision was based on Ethereum moving from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, not being decentralized, and spawning an ecosystem of scammy Ethereum-based altcoins. To me, this feels like a signal that Paxful is on the level as it's a pretty big move to cut off such a big chunk of the crypto space.


Cardano is building a better foundation in every way. Ethereum completely changing its foundational architecture to proof-of-stake like Cardano shows this

The only reason Ethereum stays ahead is having more traction with developers, existing tooling and things people use. Cardano has far better non-custodial liquid staking whereas Ethereum has applications built to provide that but it just adds centralization if everyone uses the same application

Cardano has more upgrades coming and is ahead with decentralization now. Just the fact I can do 50 things in one tx that would take 50 tx on ethereum makes it clear to me


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## Beaver101

gardner said:


> This looks like fun for the whole family: a new product to streamline the process of losing your house speculating on Bitcoin.
> 
> 
> https://www.swanbitcoin.com/homeequity/


 ..notice how the "crypto-expert-scammer" always have some techno blabblings to follow whenever a fail comes up. I think any blind person even can see this trend.


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## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> ..notice how the "crypto-expert-scammer" always have some techno blabblings to follow whenever a fail comes up. I think any blind person even can see this trend.


Notice how boomers with no interest in crypto spend so much time reading and adding low value content to crypto threads

Is there even a topic here that you can contribute value to? If not why not just read. You seem to like reading the crypto threads


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## james4beach

gardner said:


> This looks like fun for the whole family: a new product to streamline the process of losing your house speculating on Bitcoin.
> 
> 
> https://www.swanbitcoin.com/homeequity/


The fact this exists just shows the failure of regulators. This should not be possible.

Regulators should have been much stricter about crypto for the last few years. Instead, they've allowed a weird, shadow/sketchy pseudo banking system to develop.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> The fact this exists just shows the failure of regulators. This should not be possible.
> 
> Regulators should have been much stricter about crypto for the last few years. Instead, they've allowed a weird, shadow/sketchy pseudo banking system to develop.


Because you shouldn't be allowed to take out a home equity loan?

Government regulation isn't the answer to much. You can't regulate away bad decisions.


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## Beaver101

Nova Scotians warned about ‘pig-butchering’ crypto scam that has cost victims $750K

The above article is currently free to view but not sure when it goes behind a paywall. So here's what it says partially:



> _By Lyndsay ArmstrongThe Canadian Press, Mon., Jan. 9, 2023
> 
> HALIFAX - The Nova Scotia securities regulator is warning about a cryptocurrency scam that has so far cost residents hundreds of thousands of dollars.
> 
> Nova Scotians should be wary of this so-called “pig-butchering” scheme, which starts with unsolicited messages or advertisements recommending investment in crypto assets, Paul Radford, chair of the Nova Scotia Securities Commission, said in a statement Monday.
> 
> These messages, he said, can be sent on social media or through texts and emails. Typically, victims are persuaded to open and deposit money into crypto-trading accounts; then they are sent fake account statements showing large gains.
> 
> “These are fake documents as the scammer has not actually used the money to purchase crypto,” the statement from the regulator said.
> 
> Victims are tricked into thinking their investments are making money, and are encouraged to invest more -_*- a strategy the regulator said is called “fattening up the pig.” ...*


 ... ouch and ouch!!!!


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## m3s

Beaver101 said:


> Nova Scotians warned about ‘pig-butchering’ crypto scam that has cost victims $750K
> 
> The above article is currently free to view but not sure when it goes behind a paywall. So here's what it says partially:
> 
> ... ouch and ouch!!!!


They should post the average age of people who fall for that

Probably the same people who fall for all the other text/email scams. If someone texts or emails you randomly.. it's a scam. Lately I get texts from "canadapost" about failed delivery

Just clickbait with nothing new really. Why is it behind a paywall? Who pays for things you could google for free? What a fat pig scam!


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## Beaver101

m3s said:


> They should post the average age of people who fall for that
> 
> Probably the same people who fall for all the other text/email scams. If someone texts or emails you randomly.. it's a scam. Lately I get texts from "canadapost" about failed delivery


 ... that sounds like these folks never learn? Or just that crypto-related stuff is "flavour" of the day/month.



> Just clickbait with nothing new really. Why is it behind a paywall? Who pays for things you could google for free? What a fat pig scam!


 ... that news article wasn't behind a paywall but may be going after a free-view period of time. 

Of course google is free - you can google anything you want but then I just resort to reliable news sites such as the Toronto Star to clickbait my daily feeds, not Twitter. Now reading the news is 1. not a scam, and 2. neither a fat pig one. Only that crypto-scam strategy has been labelled as one as if injury wasn't enough but to tack on insults on these scammed folks.


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