# Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

AMD down from 8.20 in april to 2.18 Fridays close.
Droped 16% friday on aprox 4 times normal volume. Either Friday or early next week could be capitulation bottom? I was wrong on this stock before & if memory correct bought @ 2.85


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Using 5 year chart from Yahoo could not find a higher volume day.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

*AMD advanced micro devices*

In April stock was trading @ 8.2 was down 16% on Friday to 2.18 on volume aprox 4 times normal. Using google I could not find higher volume day going back only 5 years.

Capitulation bottom occures after panic high volume selling after an extened down trend.

I made a mistake & started thread useing ADM istead of AMD so that thread should maybe be destroyed ?

Sorry for the mistake but it is also an excellent example of how dangerous investing can be. If I made that mistake while placing an order the results might not be so forgiving.


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## Uranium101 (Nov 18, 2011)

lonewolf said:


> In April stock was trading @ 8.2 was down 16% on Friday to 2.18 on volume aprox 4 times normal. Using google I could not find higher volume day going back only 5 years.
> 
> Capitulation bottom occures after panic high volume selling after an extened down trend.
> 
> ...


Have you tried AMD's products?


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

what does that have to do with the stock tanking?
do u know why we are trading here?
I own an AMD product and that does not absolutely matter.
do ur own DD
and yes i own a lot of shares atm.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Does anyone else think newbie / lonewolf / thenegotiator is talking to himself on his cellphone and pc ?


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

webber22 said:


> Does anyone else think newbie / lonewolf / thenegotiator is talking to himself on his cellphone and pc ?


Was thinking the same as I was scrolling down.

AMD: Sad story, declining PC industy. Untouchable.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I can see AMD as a trade. Everyone has to make sure Intel has a competitor in the PC and server market for chips.

However, I don't see the company as having great prospects in the future and thus don't like them as a buy and hold.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Too risky for me to invest in, but I do like the company as a consumer. Used AMD in my latest PC build and saved a lot of money for not going with Intel.

However AMD did recently hire a new chief architect for CPU cores, the same guy that designed the K8 chip back in 03 that whomped the Pentium 4: http://hothardware.com/News/AMD-Hires-New-Chief-CPU-Architect-Brings-Old-Salt-Back-On-Board/

If he can design another new chip that is as revolutionary as the K8 was, then AMD is back in the game.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

webber22 said:


> Does anyone else think newbie / lonewolf / thenegotiator is talking to himself on his cellphone and pc ?





Argonaut said:


> Was thinking the same as I was scrolling down.
> 
> AMD: Sad story, declining PC industy. Untouchable.[/QUO
> 
> ...


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

webber22 said:


> Does anyone else think newbie / lonewolf / thenegotiator is talking to himself on his cellphone and pc ?


No, lonewolf can spell you and your and seems to know that sentences start with a capital and end with a period.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

How the years began and ended in:

*- 2006:* $30+/$20+ [reached a high of $40.33] **
*- 2007:* $19+/$7+
*- 2008:* $6+/$2+ [reached a low of $1.82]
- 2009: $2+/$9+
*- 2010:* $9+/$8+
*- 2011:* $8+/$5+
*- 2012:* $8+/$2+

** In general, I wonder when will we see the highs of 2006 to 2008? :confused2:

The current share price of $2+ is the same as the lows of 2009 [and 2008 almost]. How many lives does this company have? It reminds me of CROX [comparing survivability].

Company has released their 1st mobile chip for tablets this month, so let's see if they will be able to challenge others in this very aggressive/competitive market.

There is always the potential comeback, and at these unbelievable prices, buy & holding a small position [with money you can afford to lose] might work out for some. 

Even a small investment amount would do well, if the stock were to recover next year or two, to the highs of 2012 or 1/2 of it, but that's a huge IF & WHEN.

Worst-case scenario: losses of 100% of one's capital, which can be used at tax-time [not saying one should look for losses, lol].

Good luck to all the holders/traders and those that might be interested. 

VERY RISKY, but I never underestimate the incredible talent/innovation that's out there [and not just with the biggest in the business].


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> How the years began and ended in:
> 
> *- 2006:* $30+/$20+ [reached a high of $40.33] **
> *- 2007:* $19+/$7+
> ...



not related to AMD but I am going to throw it out there T.gal.
a recent buyout of CELTIC by XOM left approximately 27.5 million shares in the hands of the shorts to be covered.
It is going to cost them a lot of money.


Sherlock.
join Weber and Argo and buy the puts i just mentioned in the thread.
i am on the other side of ur bet:wink:


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

meh, the Vishera FX reviews are out and aren't looking hot.. they made an improvement over last years Bulldozer release but they still suck in price/value compared to Intel


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I would say congrats to those that bought/sold in 2009 & very sorry for those that held since 2006.

DJ is down -226 points, but AMD is up 4% with volume of 21 million+, LOL.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

*Amd:nyse*

What do you guys think about this stock?? Price has been falling for quite a while, but I think it's bound to recover. They're producing parts for the PS4 aswell as potentially for the new xbox, they've stopped putting their main focus on PC and have begun focusing on mobile etc. Do you guys think they can recover? Or are they bound for doom?

Went back 4-5 pages and didn't see anything about this stock, sorry if there's a thread about it already :X


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Lucida said:


> What do you guys think about this stock?? Price has been falling for quite a while, but I think it's bound to recover. They're producing parts for the PS4 aswell as potentially for the new xbox, they've stopped putting their main focus on PC and have begun focusing on mobile etc. Do you guys think they can recover? Or are they bound for doom?
> 
> Went back 4-5 pages and didn't see anything about this stock, sorry if there's a thread about it already :X


They put most of their eggs in the combined CPU+graphics processor design. Video games are a natural for this but I don't know how much demand there is for these systems versus how big the PC market is. It seems like a fair bit of gaming is now done on tablets where they havent made an inroads.

I think Intel is a better play here on the thesis that they will carve out a major chunk of the mobile chip market before all is said and done. They generate huge cashflows from their PC chip and server chip business that feeds their R&D budget. They also have by far the best fabrication factories. Their technical prowess with smaller wafers and 3D design are making their chips more powerful and consume less energy.

AMD may be useful for a bounce off of a low for a trade but in the long-term I don't think it is a winning long-term buy and hold type stock.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

PMREdmonton said:


> They put most of their eggs in the combined CPU+graphics processor design. Video games are a natural for this but I don't know how much demand there is for these systems versus how big the PC market is. It seems like a fair bit of gaming is now done on tablets where they havent made an inroads.
> 
> I think Intel is a better play here on the thesis that they will carve out a major chunk of the mobile chip market before all is said and done. They generate huge cashflows from their PC chip and server chip business that feeds their R&D budget. They also have by far the best fabrication factories. Their technical prowess with smaller wafers and 3D design are making their chips more powerful and consume less energy.
> 
> AMD may be useful for a bounce off of a low for a trade but in the long-term I don't think it is a winning long-term buy and hold type stock.


AMD has also teamed up with ARM, which seems to have a very prospective future. Intel has alot of money in R&D but rarely use it, they havent begun their focus towards mobile/tablets yet. I think AMD can bounce back up to around 5$ within the next few years with the launch of the PS4 and their processor with ARM. I've done alot of research on AMD and the general consensus is split between people who say to invest and who say to stay away. Still unsure whether i should invest because itd be my first stock investment and i dont want to lose money on my first stock buy.


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

I hold a rather big portion in AMD, and will continue to add throughout the year. I think this is a great turn around stock. They have been punished heavily from investors and will continue to do so until they post some consistent profits. The new management team have been making one win after another and have carved a niche of high performance/graphics at a small margin. Intel can't compete with this as it's chips require a second Nvidia GPU to maintain comparable performance destroying OEM margins or forcing a premium on the consumer. It's also one of the few time AMD has a better overall chip then Intel and intel isn't interested in competing since they're after the mobile market. Nintendo WII U, PS4, ( most likely ) XBox720 are all using AMD processors.

So far Sony & HP are happy to use the new processors in their products and their all on or ahead of schedule. If apple signs on with their macbook Air it could be epic. These guys are on fire. 

Do your own DD, you might be happily surprised.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Yeah they also teamed up with ARM and are releasing a gpu (or something) in 2014. But they are also very deeply in debt and i dont know if they can pull out of this. Ive been watching this stock since september and dont think they can drop much more, im thinking that AMD has potentiall to be my first stock purchase.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Lucida said:


> Yeah they also teamed up with ARM and are releasing a gpu (or something) in 2014. But they are also very deeply in debt and i dont know if they can pull out of this. Ive been watching this stock since september and dont think they can drop much more, im thinking that AMD has potentiall to be my first stock purchase.


I'd be careful with this one, especially if you haven't owned stocks before. I'd suggest start with index funds and then go to large, stable large caps to start with. If you want to invest in tech IBM, MSFT, GOOG, Qualcomm and INTC are much safer picks.

The troubles I see with AMD are:
1. They are not dominant in their field
2. They have negative net and operating margins
3. Their Debt/equity ratio is 3.78
4. P/B is 3.38
5. They have lost about 65% of their book value in the last 3 years
6. They have lost money in 4 of the last 5 quarters
7. They have a market value of 1.9B and lost 1.2B last year and 500M in the last quarter
8. They have cash and short-term investments of about 1B and loss 500M in the last quarter

If you are not accustomed to how you would react to a sharp and quick loss in a stock and this is not the stock to figure that out with. You have to be a deep value investor and contrarian to touch this stock right now. They could easily go bankrupt and wipe you out. They could then re-organize themselves and come back a stronger entity without the debt hanging around their necks and compete better.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida said:


> 1. I think AMD can bounce back up to around 5$ within the next *few years*
> 2. Still unsure whether i should invest because itd be *my first stock* investment and *i dont want to lose money* on my first stock buy.


*1.* So would you be comfortable holding [if not losing] dead money for potentially 'year*s*'?

*2.* If you're a new investor/searching for that '1st stock' and not wanting 'to lose money', why start with such a severely beaten-down/debt-ridden/volatile stock that does not even pay a dividend? :confused2: I'm not sure if you're a new investor in general or not, if so, you're starting in very risky reverse order. Remember the rule of not investing money you can't afford to lose. If you're an experienced investor, then please disregard my comments.

I recently [2013] took a long-term position in AMD, but only because I have been investing for a few years now/am well diversified already/and more importantly, can afford to wait/lose the investment. However, when I first began investing in stocks, I opted for INTC over AMD, at which time, the stocks were $19+ & $9+ respectively, but being that I was a new investor, I went with the former, ie: the leader in the field [not to say that leaders aren't challenged, ie: AAPL/Samsung]. 

No matter how punished a stock may be, there is always additional downside potential; remember AMD dropped below $2 just 5 months ago, and could easily go back to that low next month, if for example they'll miss earnings. 

Note also that INTC is down about -30% since the highs of April/2012; I'm not suggesting you buy it, just that it has better chances at recovery than one that's down -80% since they reached their high in 2010, and struggling ever since.

Do you believe that the potential positive catalysts that you have mentioned, will outnumber the current huge negative ones? Sure there is potential to make this $2.50 stock go to $5 in the future, or to $0 as well. 

I would first try to make a profit with a more solid & stable company before investing in risky stocks.

*Q1 - April 18 @ 5:00 p.m* - [the approx. $164M proceeds of the recent lease/sale of the 'Lone Star Campus' will be included in this Q as per their website].

*Ratings*

http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-lower-ratings-of-Advanced-Micro-Devices-CFR-to-B2--PR_264546


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* So would you be comfortable holding [if not losing] dead money for potentially 'year*s*'?
> 
> *2.* If you're a new investor/searching for that '1st stock' and not wanting 'to lose money', why start with such a severely beaten-down/debt-ridden/volatile stock that does not even pay a dividend? :confused2: I'm not sure if you're a new investor in general or not, if so, you're starting in very risky reverse order. Remember the rule of not investing money you can't afford to lose. If you're an experienced investor, then please disregard my comments.
> 
> ...


Thanks for the awesome detailed response!

I am a new investor in general, never invested in anything. I want to invest in stocks because I find the stock market very attractive. I am only going to be investing around $1100, and that's money I don't really need at the moment. The reason I'm interested in AMD is because they've hit rock bottom, now they're either going to pull out of this, or sink. And I have a gut feeling they're going to pull out of this. Because of my limited amount of money, I am moreso focusing on 'penny' stocks because it'll be 'easier' to re-gain my money. Your post put alot of thought into my head and I'll take it into consideration.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Amd seasonal short trade, sell June 4 market on open, cover market on close July 23

29yrs
86% wins
18% average profit
Risk/reward 1:2.8
.53% average daily profit
biggest profit 44%
Average draw -6%
Max draw -25%
total wins 25
total losses 4
trading days 35

I was going to post data closer to June 4 & ask some of the option experts (like Humble) how they would short using options. Posted now since someone interested. 

Lucida

I will do a data mine search & get buy dates for you.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

seasonal buy market on open Jan 15 sell market on close April 5
27yrs
81% wins
Average profit 20%
risk/reward 1:1.7
average daily profit .24%
bigest profit 145%
average draw -12%
max draw -36%
total wins 22
total # losses 5
trading days 56

Have to check if AMD is optionable


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

lonewolf said:


> seasonal buy market on open Jan 15 sell market on close April 5
> 27yrs
> 81% wins
> Average profit 20%
> ...


I really appreciate the help, but being new to the game, I don't really get what your posting :/. Like I understand that youre posting theyre past history etc, but I don't really know how to interpret your posts. Don't really get the total wins/losses and the trading days. Can you explain what those mean? I really appreciate your help =)


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

last 27 years if an investor purchased AMD start of trading day on Jan 15 & sold April 5

The investor would have made money 22 times & lost money 5 times

The length of time the trade is held is 56 days

There are all differnt ways to trade this is a seasonal trade & might not be suited to everyone.

It is debatable if seasonal trading works some say yes some say no.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Lucida said:


> And I have a gut feeling they're going to pull out of this. Because of my limited, I am moreso focusing on 'penny' stocks because it'll be 'easier' to re-gain my money.


Investing in penny stocks based on a gut feeling??? You've got to ask yourself one question....


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Lucida said:


> Because of my limited, *I am moreso focusing on 'penny' stocks because it'll be 'easier' to re-gain my money.* Your post put alot of thought into my head and I'll take it into consideration.


it's the other way, it'll be easier to loose it all with penny stocks...


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Lucida said:


> Because of my limited, I am moreso focusing on 'penny' stocks because it'll be 'easier' to re-gain my money.


If you really think this, you are not ready for individual stock investing.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Wow you guys are really busting my balls haha! I'm stuck on investing in stocks, so please don't try to convince me otherwise. What do you guys think I should do? Which market sector should I focus on for an investment of 1-4 years?


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

We are just trying to help you out. I would read and try to learn some more first. Do you know what investment style you will be applying? 

You should read the Intellegent Investor. You could read stuff like Peter Lynch's books but they are basic and don't give you a lot of information. They are more like pep talk books. The ideas are solid, but you don't come out feeling like you know how to apply the ideas. 

You should read up on risk and asset allocation but those are two advanced subjects IMO and misunderstanding them can hurt your more than help you. 

I like a particular blog - Aleph Blog - for much of my learning. They guy was an actuary so a lot of the posts won't relate to you but there is a wealth of information spanning years on his blog. He's very biased, but I agree with his general investment style and he has links to a wealth of information. I've been reading for a few weeks and I'm only back a few years. 

It's good to read letter and memos from investors you respect. You can unlock a wealth of info, but you should try to read back many years. I try to go back to the 70's or earlier but it's hard to find stuff from before the 90's. 

Read stuff like:
Warren Buffett's letters to the shareholders
Howard Mark's Memos @ oak tree capital 
Research and reports from tweedy.com
Grahamanddoddsville.net

I like to take the long view. Try to think over 10-20 years instead of 1 or 2. Also keep in mind that market timing is a huge subject and often talked about. People make it seems as if you can time things but that not what they are saying. It is hard to understand but it's more about positioning than it is about timing. It's about having options when push comes to shove. Sometimes you want to dig in and stand your ground while other times you want to be flexible. A good offense is a strong defense in investing. And remember that you might be wrong for a long time, but if you stay your course patience always pays off. You don't make money if everyone agrees with you. Once everyone agrees with you the money has already been made. Good investing is a lonely game.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

jcgd said:


> We are just trying to help you out. I would read and try to learn some more first. Do you know what investment style you will be applying?
> 
> You should read the Intellegent Investor. You could read stuff like Peter Lynch's books but they are basic and don't give you a lot of information. They are more like pep talk books. The ideas are solid, but you don't come out feeling like you know how to apply the ideas.
> 
> ...



I tried reading the intelligent investor a few years ago but it was too advanced for me, I'm going to give it a read when my exams are done. It seems like you're pretty knowledgeable on this topic, so I'm just going to ask a quick simple question. When I receive my tax claim I should get around $1000, do you think it'd be better to diversify by investments or put my eggs in one basket? What are the pros and cons?


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

With $1000, you really don't have much to diversify with. To do individual trades, your money would get eaten up by fees. 

Your best bet is to pick a sector of interest and buy an ETF of it. That way you get diversification and only have one fee. 

You'd probably benefit from more of a couch potato style of investing to start, but even then, I'd only pick one ETF to buy now, when you get more money, buy a different one to balance out your holdings.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

My plan is to hold the stock for a couple of years, im using questtrade and their rates are pretty fair. What is an ETF?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Lucida

Exchange traded fund ( I always just viewed an etf as a basket of stocks, comodities or whatever bundled togeather & traded as single unit) Do not know how Webster defines etf

Its good that you only have a small amount of money to put into the market you wont lose as much. Not being sarcastic but almost all investors would be better off putting a little on the table till they gain experience.

The worst type of experience you can first experience is kinda funny it involves you making money the thing your trying to do. But instead of following a method based on doing research to develope a method that gives you an edge that fits your personality you play the market the way a gambler puts coins into a slot machine.

Having little money @ the get go almost always reduces the cost of market tuition.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

jcgd said:


> You should read the Intellegent Investor. You could read stuff like Peter Lynch's books *but they are basic and don't give you a lot of information.*


I don't think it's a good idea to discourage basic reading to brand new investors, on the contrary! Further, someone just starting out, does not need immediate information overload as that could overwhelm, hence discourage, so basic & small books is the preferable way to get started if one has little to no investing experience. 

If I recall correctly, you have been investing for 3 years, but try to remember where you were 3 years ago, did you start with The Intelligent Investor? Maybe you did and worked for you perhaps based on your area of studies, etc.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida said:


> I tried reading the intelligent investor a few years ago but it was too advanced for me, I'm going to give it a read when my exams are done.


I thought you were a girl [based on your username], but turns out that you're a boi/student. 

First of all, AMD is not a 'penny stock' per se, but given current environment & fundamentals, certainly has the potential to become one. Though stocks under $5 officially fall under the penny category, as per the Securities and Exchange Commission [to emphasize their risk], literally they refer to stocks under $1. You should not touch this group of stocks until you become a more experienced investor. You want to be a value investor right away picking those that have hit 'rock bottom', but without experience, how will you recognize/understand long-term fundamentals/future potential/price movements in relation to the market, etc., and that is why you should start with established/safer investments if you wish to start sooner rather than later, even if they'll cost you more.

Btw, with respect to my dividend comment in my prior post, I should clarify that I did not mean that one must buy a stock that pays a dividend, what I meant, is that if you were willing to wait for 'years' for a stock that you were confident was going to recover, that at least you would get something for waiting with a more stable/undervalued stock that paid a sustainable one, and in worse case scenario of a bankruptcy, your initial investment would have been reduced by whatever dividend payments you had received [unless you had reinvested the dividends in shares of same company]. 

For example, I purchased INTC 3+ years ago, and in that period of time, despite all the ups and downs, the dividend increased 4x from quarterly $0.1575 to the current $0.225 [ask yourself why the company was able to increase the dividends]. But for simplicity, assume for a moment that the price had not been increased: had you only owned 100 shares [no matter how much you had paid for them], in that 3 year period, you would have received $189 in dividends [$0.1575 x 4 quarters x 100 shares x 3 years = $189 {however, the payments would have actually been higher given the 4 increases}] . 

What you're doing is *running before walking*, so don't be so impatient as that could cost you. Great that you have interest in stocks, but read & learn first, and now [after your exams] is a good time as some markets are now at an all-time high, which means that a correction is in order, though not for the stock that has won your heart, lol. 

Generally speaking, the above mentioned book is not a good recommendation for a brand new investor, if anything, it could discourage some from learning/reading further. Start with basic books. There is a list on this forum that you might want to follow after you finish your [uni?] exams next month. You could easily read 1/2 the list over the summer as some are very small books & all found at the library; by the end of it, you can go back to The Intelligent Investor & you'll have a much easier time with it.

If you don't know what ETFs are, then you have been living under a rock as they are probably as old as you, LOL. You obviously don't even read the business sections of newspapers, why not if you're interested in stocks?! :rolleyes2: 

Start today:
http://business.financialpost.com/category/investing/ 
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2013/01/17/etfs-turn-20-years-old-in-the-u-s/

Good luck on your exams!


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> I thought you were a girl [based on your username], but turns out that you're a boi/student.
> 
> First of all, AMD is not a 'penny stock' per se, but given current environment & fundamentals, certainly has the potential to become one. Though stocks under $5 officially fall under the penny category, as per the Securities and Exchange Commission [to emphasize their risk], literally they refer to stocks under $1. You should not touch this group of stocks until you become a more experienced investor. You want to be a value investor right away picking those that have hit 'rock bottom', but without experience, how will you recognize/understand long-term fundamentals/future potential/price movements in relation to the market, etc., and that is why you should start with established/safer investments if you wish to start sooner rather than later, even if they'll cost you more.
> 
> ...


Haha thanks, and yes, I'ma boy, an yes, im a university student. Thanks for the great advice! And the reason why I don't know what ETF's are is because whenever I previously stumbled upon the term, I assumed it was another form of investing like mutual funds or investing in banks, so I didn't really care for it. And I don't read the newspaper cause, come on, it's the 21st century! I read all my stuff online haha! I don't really read much information about stocks besides the few stocks I watch as I have no time to do so due to the crazy amount of work I have. But I'll definitely start reading once my exams are done!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida said:


> And I don't read the newspaper cause, come on, it's the 21st century! I read all my stuff online...


Did I say to buy the newspaper? I just said to 'read', and even gave you an online link. 

Seriously, books are the best; newspapers are to keep you updated on daily events.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> I don't think it's a good idea to discourage basic reading to brand new investors, on the contrary! Further, someone just starting out, does not need immediate information overload as that could overwhelm, hence discourage, so basic & small books is the preferable way to get started if one has little to no investing experience.
> 
> If I recall correctly, you have been investing for 3 years, but try to remember where you were 3 years ago, did you start with The Intelligent Investor? Maybe you did and worked for you perhaps based on your area of studies, etc.


I didn't mean he shouldn't read Peter Lynch's books, just that you won't find a lot of answers within them. 

No, I started with Security Analysis. Way over my head so I went to the Intelligent Investor next. I wouldn't say my area of studies helped much, just my extreme interest in investing. I did my best to research anything I didn't understand... and well... I still do. It's good to read the Intelligent Investor every year or two. 

Lots of books have value, the Intelligent Investor offers more than most by a wide margin.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

jcgd said:


> 1. I started with Security Analysis. *Way over my head* so I went to the Intelligent Investor next....
> 2. my *extreme interest in investing.* I did my best to research anything I didn't understand... and well... I still do.


*1.* Both are absolute classics! Good for you that you did not get discouraged after reading the former first.

*2.* You were more ambitious because of your 'extreme interest', but not everyone is the same. I myself wasn't so committed/interested at first, hence I started with 'The Lazy Investor' followed by the Dummy Series, and have not stopped reading investment books since. 

Your keen interest has been evident on this forum, as you don't come here just looking for all the answers to be given to you!


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

It's also important to note that I was poking around for months before I was even aware of Security Analysis or the Intelligent Investor so it would NOT be fair to say that my learning began there, however many opinions pointed to those books as possibly the best, if not the best, investing resources out there. 

I really believe that if you could summarize the ideas in the books to a non investor you are probably ready to invest your own money. 

OP, how much would it cost you to diversify thy first $1000? If you have to pay $5 per trade you would sacrifice 0.5% of your total investment just to buy a single stock. $1k is the minimum I would use for a stock purchase or fees will eat too much of your returns. 

I would wait until you have around $10k before you sart make individual stock purchases. If you can dollar cost average into a few ETFs or TD e-series fund for free that may be a good place to start. Most importantly, just keep you money in cash until you understand your options at the very least. Rule number one is never lose money. 

I would say I was far beyond your investment knowledge level when I first jumped in and I promptly lost about $2000 in a few months on two stocks. Expensive lessons, university courses would have been cheaper for me. 

Patience will save you, AND make you lots of money in the long run.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

cressida i think a nice boi like u should just stick to dating prince harry

u will get richer faster than messing in stocks


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

I'm not too happy this thread has completely gone off course from AMD to investment advice. I own this stock and would love to hear what other who have it think about it.

I'm also very concerned about the termination fee to global foundries. That's going to hurt the stock price heavily in the 2014 as the biggest chunk $200 million is to be paid out. I was hoping to see if anyone knew more about this.

In the mean time l guess im off to http://forums.anandtech.com/ until this thread gains focus again.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Just to avoid making a new thread asking about this. If I were to invest in a company that deals dividends and I set the dividends to reinvest into the company, if my dividend was not enough o purchase one more share, what would happen to the dividend?


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

Lucidia,

Perhaps try picking up a subscription to moneysense magazine. It's a pretty good primer of investing in the stock market. They promote couch potato investing, and they have an issue specifically designed to deal with the questions what should I buy if I have $1000, $5000, $10,000, etc. 

It's probably due out in the next month or so.

Oh, and they have a digital edition, though it may be worth a trip to the library to look at a few back issues.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Lucidia,
I believe if you are doing a true drip through the company you get a fractional share. If you are doing a synthetic drip through a broker like Questrade I believe you would simply get the dividend unless you get enough dividends to buy a full share. I'm not sure if the broker would keep track of the dividend payments until you have enough to buy a full share or not.

If you do have lots of your own questions you should start your own thread. This one is wildly off topic now. I'm bad for going off topic myself, but we should really try to get this thread back on AMD.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

jcgd said:


> 1. I'm not sure if the broker would keep track of the dividend payments until you have enough to buy a full share or not.
> 
> 2. If you do have lots of your own questions you should start your own thread.
> 
> 3. Try to get this thread back on AMD.


*1.* No, they don't keep track. 

For synthetic drips, as prices fluctuate, it's best to have additional 20 or so shares to ensure that if you're already dripping 1 sh for example, that your dividends will continue to have purchasing power as the stock rises [since it will cost more to buy the share in that scenario]. 

*2.* And/or search the topic b4 you start a new one. This thread might be of interest to you: [and there are others if you care to search]
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/14955-Tips-for-new-investors

*3.* What's the latest L? Keep us informed.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Lucida said:


> And I have a gut feeling they're going to pull out of this. Because of my limited amount of money, I am moreso focusing on 'penny' stocks because it'll be 'easier' to re-gain my money. Your post put alot of thought into my head and I'll take it into consideration.


Thinking that you know things that are not supported by any evidence ensures that you will lose a lot of money over the long term.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

AMD up almost 10% today wow


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Tell the forum the reason.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> Tell the forum the reason.


I think his gut told AMD to go up.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

dragenn said:


> *I'm not too happy* this thread has completely gone off course from AMD to investment advice.


I just noticed this post. I have to say that it's funny to read the complaints of newbies.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

none said:


> I think his gut told AMD to go up.


Microsoft announced they will be using AMD parts for their next console. However, I think my gut feeling is what really caused the stock to go up


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida said:


> I think my gut feeling is what really caused the stock to go up


And what is it telling you about the opening price on April 19th? 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...to-adopt-amd-chips-for-next-xbox-console.html


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> And what is it telling you about the opening price on April 19th?
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...to-adopt-amd-chips-for-next-xbox-console.html



Opening price on April 19 will be around 2.80-2.85


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Glad I got out a few years ago at around $7 IIRC. IMHO if you buy AMD you're not investing, you're gambling. And if you like gambling on tech stocks might I suggest OCZ, I think it has much more potential upside.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Sherlock said:


> Glad I got out a few years ago at around $7 IIRC. IMHO if you buy AMD you're not investing, you're gambling. And if you like gambling on tech stocks might I suggest OCZ, I think it has much more potential upside.


AMD is producing parts for both the PS3 and the new xbox, this is estimated to bring in 1.3 billion (forget where I read that). It's not enough to turn the company around, but it's a very good start for them. Companies like Sony and Microsoft wouldn't let AMD manufacture parts for their consoles if they believed that the company would go bankrupt/crash soon. Just my uneducated 2 cents


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> I just noticed this post. I have to say that it's funny to read the complaints of newbies.


I already knew about the the price going up on the Xbox720 ( old news if you've been following it ) after it's stock price was pounded hard ( for nothing but typical market manipulation ). Nobody cared to discussed. General investment advice could have been in another thread. For the time being, everyone with AMD on their watch list could have discuss a potential buy opportunity. Just saying... 

It'll keep going up from here, but be ready to cash out. Heavy profit taking with this stock.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

My advice was for the person who wanted to make AMD their *very 1st stock. *

Before you criticize, try to first contribute a little more.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Wanted to buy in at 2.28 but my stock account wasnt ready . Gonna wait for a dip and then buy in.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

While we wait for Q1 results for this year, a reminder of what last Q/year looked like:

*Q4 2012 Results*

- AMD revenue $1.16 billion, decreased 9 percent sequentially and 32 percent year-over-year
- Gross margin 15 percent, non-GAAP) gross margin 39 percent
- Operating loss of $422 million, net loss of $473 million, loss per share of $0.63
- Non-GAAP operating loss of $55 million, net loss of $102 million, loss per share of $0.14

*2012 Annual Results*

- AMD revenue $5.42 billion, down 17 percent year-over-year
- Gross margin 23 percent, non-GAAP) gross margin 41 percent
- Operating loss of $1.06 billion, net loss of $1.18 billion, loss per share $1.60
- Non-GAAP operating income of $45 million, net loss of $114 million, loss per share $0.16

http://ir.amd.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=74093&p=irol-newsarticle&ID=1776795

Q1 is supposed to reflect payment of appprox. $164M from the Austin Campus transaction, but they owe $300M+ in termination payments to Global Foundries by next year [40M to be paid this Q alone].

How might Q1/2013 compare?


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

From what l know a select amount of graphics cards and the console chips will be push through global foundries to lower/eliminate the penalty. I dont have enough resources to confirm it yet


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Bought in at 2.40 (first stock purchase) The revenue stream from the xbox/ps4 should boost the company as well as their anticipated ARM chip. Hoping to see some nice returns in a few years.


Edit: Share price is most likely gonna take a hit tomorrow because of the q1 results, probably should have waited a bit, oh well. I'l still hopefully get my money back soon enough


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida said:


> 1. probably should have waited a bit, oh well.
> 2. I'l still hopefully get my money back soon enough


*1.* I believe you should have waited until after the earnings, however, sometimes earnings surprise. If not, it will not drop from $8+ [52 wk. high], but from $2+. If it reaches the current year low, we could see a drop of $.40 cents, or a bit more if the stock will hit a new low, but still, we're talking about cents rather than dollars per/sh.

*2.* I thought you wanted this long-term? Anyway, you invested just $1K, not $100K, right?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Lucida said:


> The revenue stream from the xbox/ps4 should boost the company as well as *their anticipated ARM chip*. Hoping to see some nice returns in a few years.


I'm long on ARM rather than AMD... it's win-win as AMD/Intel and any others have succumbed to paying them now. The ARM chips are much lower margin than the old ones


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Lucida said:


> Companies like Sony and Microsoft wouldn't let AMD manufacture parts for their consoles if they believed that the company would go bankrupt/crash soon. Just my uneducated 2 cents


Sony and Microsoft have a poor history with consoles in a business sense, and many more will just play games on their smartphones now


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida, did you notice stock closed +4.5% higher? It erased today's losses just in the last 1/2 hr. of trading.

I haven't read any reports yet.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> Lucida, did you notice stock closed +4.5% higher? It erased today's losses just in the last 1/2 hr. of trading.
> 
> I haven't read any reports yet.


Checked the stock after eating and was thoroughly surprised. Last I checked it was 2.31 and I came back and saw it at 2.51. Things are looking bright!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

And so the report was not as horrible as expected and beat expectations, albeit barely, so we know the stock will stay above $2, for now at least! 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/18/us-amd-results-idUSBRE93H16E20130418


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

This looks like it's going to get bad fast. There's no confidence in this stock at all.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

mode3 that ARMH chart looks fantastic & i believe you have held it for a very long time. That was an excellent pick!

but the charts are breaking down recently, short-term moving averages dropping, bbands & stochs etc are looking droopy. Did you perhaps think about selling some recently, just to lock in some profit.

i guess another way to put the question is, what now for the long-term armh investor?

for someone who has never bought but is looking to try out, there's a nice-looking diagonal call spread. The 2015 long 20 calls + 2014 short 40s or 45s.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

At $2.55 right no. Up $52 after trading fees =) (First time buying a stock, so I'm happy about any gains lol)


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

that's beginners luck, if you continue like this (choosing looser companies) over long term you'll be in red...



Lucida said:


> At $2.55 right no. Up $52 after trading fees =) (First time buying a stock, so I'm happy about any gains lol)


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I wouldn't call it luck - I'd call it noise.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

blin10 said:


> that's beginners luck, if you continue like this (choosing looser companies) over long term you'll be in red...


Why do you think AMD is a loser company?


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Lucida said:


> Why do you think AMD is a loser company?


if you're asking that, you REALLY shouldn't be buying amd then...


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida, other members here, including myself & the above, do our own fair of speculation, in let's say stocks under $5.

AMD is not the company I would have recommended for a newbie for all the reasons you already know, but you seem to be interested & following it/bought very low/invested just $1,100, so you won't go broke unless you make a habit of investing in only risky companies. 

Just make sure you learn ways to reduce risk/protect your capital.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> mode3 that ARMH chart looks fantastic & i believe you have held it for a very long time. That was an excellent pick!
> 
> but the charts are breaking down recently, short-term moving averages dropping, bbands & stochs etc are looking droopy. Did you perhaps think about selling some recently, just to lock in some profit.


Noooo. Made over $1000US on that little gem just today alone. New all time high. (CMF effect or something?! haha) Until AMD/Intel/Apple/Samsung/Nvidia and anyone else who wants to design chips no longer have to pay ARM just for the mere privilege - I am holding. I don't know anything about technical evaluations to be honest, but I should get into options


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

Im invested heavily in AMD. Just a forewarning, a lot of people lost money on this stock last year. The market sediment is really bad for this stock and it could still drop back to ~$2.30 ( my estimates ) after going past +$2.70 ( profit taking + "shorting" ). I've been up and down this stock by $750. Over the long haul this stock is a money maker, but you have to be patient, and avoid panic selling it. It "usually" bounces back.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

blin10 said:


> that's beginners luck, if you continue like this (choosing looser companies) over long term you'll be in red...


So pretty much if i make money from the stock, its beginners luck, but if i lose money everyone's going to say "i told you so". Guess i lose either way heh


Edit:http://www.4-traders.com/ADVANCED-M...s-the-World-s-Fastest-Graphics-Card-16771428/

Interesting article :V


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

Lucida said:


> So pretty much if i make money from the stock, its beginners luck, but if i lose money everyone's going to say "i told you so". Guess i lose either way heh
> 
> 
> Edit:http://www.4-traders.com/ADVANCED-M...s-the-World-s-Fastest-Graphics-Card-16771428/
> ...


She a got a point there. If it makes you feel better l have a heavy position in AMD too. DD will tell you whats going on behind the scenes. Last year F' up nearly bankrupted the company and made a once in a life opportunity to buy this stock at dirt cheap prices. Your either very resourceful, lucky, or a combination of both. You'll need patience because it'll be a 2014 - 2015 before you realize some real profits.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

dragenn said:


> She a got a point there. If it makes you feel better l have a heavy position in AMD too. DD will tell you whats going on behind the scenes. Last year F' up nearly bankrupted the company and made a once in a life opportunity to buy this stock at dirt cheap prices. Your either very resourceful, lucky, or a combination of both. You'll need patience because it'll be a 2014 - 2015 before you realize some real profits.


Yeah, I knew AMD was going to be a long(ish) term investment. I think I bought in at a decent time though (got in at 2.4). I dont care how long it takes as long as I make money 

On a side note, up 3% today =D


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

At 2.78 right now, up almost 4% as of now


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Still smiling L? :friendly_wink:

It's nearing $3!


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> Still smiling L? :friendly_wink:
> 
> It's nearing $3!


Bought on april 15, and already have an 18% overall return! Id say that's pretty good . Super happy with my first purchase


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Up 13% today...


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

Lucida said:


> Up 13% today...


When will you lock in the profits?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Good day for AMD [and other stocks].

I think you're up about 34% in a couple of weeks, but just be aware that these gains could reverse very quickly.

Do you have an exit plan?


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

I was planning on holding AMD for a few years until my money doubled or so. I think they just had a really good day today, debating on whether to tell now, wait for price to go down then re-buy, or to just hold.


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

Lucida said:


> I was planning on holding AMD for a few years until my money doubled or so. I think they just had a really good day today, debating on whether to tell now, wait for price to go down then re-buy, or to just hold.


 If you sold now as tgal said...you would be up 34.17%. However I'm not sure what commission you paid? On an investment of $1100...based on $58 in commissions ($29.00 x2). I'm assuming you paid $29 commission to buy and will pay $29 commission to sell. Then you also have to worry about currency conversion (from $US to $CAN). Forgetting currency conversion you would have a profit of $317.56 on an $1100 investment which IMHO is amazing. Your return if you sold your 458 shares (x2.40) of AMD after commissions would be 28.86% in just a few weeks.

I can't advise you whether to sell at this point. However I know what I would do if I was in your situation---LOL. I wish you the best of luck whatever you decide to do.

These calculations are all based on a closing price for AMD of $3.22 (which was up 14.18% on the day).


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Squash500 said:


> If you sold now as tgal said...you would be up 34.17%. However I'm not sure what commission you paid? On an investment of $1100...based on $58 in commissions ($29.00 x2). I'm assuming you paid $29 commission to buy and will pay $29 commission to sell. Then you also have to worry about currency conversion (from $US to $CAN). Forgetting currency conversion you would have a profit of $317.56 on an $1100 investment which IMHO is amazing. Your return if you sold your 458 shares (x2.40) of AMD after commissions would be 28.86% in just a few weeks.
> 
> I can't advise you whether to sell at this point. However I know what I would do if I was in your situation---LOL. I wish you the best of luck whatever you decide to do.
> 
> These calculations are all based on a closing price for AMD of $3.22 (which was up 14.18% on the day).


My trading fees are 10$ per trade, so i wont lose much from commission. Really undecided right now. Atleast i proved everyone wrong who told me that buying AMD stock is stupid


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida said:


> At least i proved everyone wrong who told me that *buying AMD stock is stupid*


For the record, I never said that [I also invest in AMD], but some of us mentioned the *risks* involved with this particular stock at this time.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> For the record, I never said that [I also invest in AMD], but some of us mentioned the *risks* involved with this particular stock at this time.


Wow I didn't know you were invested in AMD!

How much are you up by?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

a rising tide buoys all boats, as they say. 

lucida never mind whether u sell or not. What i would like to know is what are u buying next :cool-new:


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida said:


> 1. Wow I didn't know you were invested in AMD!
> 2. How much are you up by?


*1.* I mentioned that in my 1st post to you. I invest in a lot of stocks under $5, lol.

*2.* My ACB, after my latest purchase in early April = $2.345.

Generally speaking, I keep in mind that sometimes, the significant rebound of certain stocks, especially in absence of any major announcement, may have little to do with the stock itself, ie: short covering, etc., so I do book profits in such cases. For example, I may sell a % of my shares after a certain % increase, then buy them again when the price drops to my desired level. Of course nobody knows if the stock will drop enough to make that purchase, but let's remember that the stock was trading @ near 40% less just 2 weeks ago.

Since you invested a very small amount, holding long-term is not a bad idea provided that you have the patience, and more importantly, that you are ok. seeing your investment and/or unrealized gains drop. This stock most likely won't double overnight, and IMO, a now near 40% profit in your case in 1/2 a month, should not be completely ignored, especially with your first trial stock, which happens to be very volatile.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> a rising tide buoys all boats, as they say.
> 
> lucida never mind whether u sell or not. What i would like to know is what are u buying next :cool-new:


Sold at $3.25. Should have waited a bit but I got nervous, made a good profit though (imo). I think I'm gonna wait a bit till AMD price goes down, then get back in. I really think AMD has the potential to get back up to 6-8$. I'll let you know if I decide to invest in another stock, might take awhile though. I did DD on AMD for about 6 months before I actually invested in them.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

:cool-new: :cool-new:


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida said:


> 1. Sold at $3.25.
> 2. made a good profit
> 3. I'm gonna wait a bit till AMD price goes down, then get back in.
> 4. I really think AMD has the potential to get back up to 6-8$.
> 5. I'll let you know if I decide to invest in another stock, might take awhile though. I did DD on AMD for about 6 months before I actually invested in them.


Ok., now that you sold without pressure, lol, I'll add other comments.

*1.* Congrats! Given the sudden & significant increase, I think you did the right thing, no matter if the stock keeps rising, as that you have no control over, and as the saying goes, 'a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush'.

*2.* 35% in 2 weeks is just a good profit?! :rolleyes2: 

- if as you said, you invested $1,100 @ $2.40, you would have 458 shares
- you sold @ $3.25 for a profit of $389.30 - $20 fees = $369.30 [of which, just 1/2 will be taxable in a non-reg. acct.]. Now calculate your annual return. :encouragement:

*3.* That's the way to do it. Remember that it was trading @35% less 2 weeks ago, so don't worry, the stock won't double by tomorrow.  

*4.* I'm hopeful also, but it will take time.

*5. *Good idea not to jump into another one; exercise patience now & in the interim read a good investment book & just savour the lessons learned & keep the profits [if you invest $1,100 next time, it would actually be $730.70/$1,100-$369.30, and that's how you can reduce your risk & capital].


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> Ok., now that you sold without pressure, lol, I'll add other comments.
> 
> *1.* Congrats! Given the sudden & significant increase, I think you did the right thing, no matter if the stock keeps rising, as that you have no control over, and as the saying goes, 'a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush'.
> 
> ...


I actually bought 480 shares at 2.40 (1151 US). Also, since my annual income is under 12k, I'm pretty sure I get all my taxes back, so I should get the full profit =D. Extra bonus, since I'm under 25***, questrade won't charge me inactivity fees, so I don't have to trade every quarter! Everything seems to be going well for me haha!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

How can you have a trading account if you're under 18?

Anyway, don't let this get to your head and just take your time learning.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> How can you have a trading account if you're under 18?
> 
> Anyway, don't let this get to your head and just take your time learning.


Whoops, sorry it's under 25**.

And yeah I know, going to start reading stock books this summer so I know moreso of what I'm doing.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

I really regret selling my shares now. I wonder how long this increase will last :/


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Lucida said:


> I really regret selling my shares now. I wonder how long this increase will last :/


Purge your trade from memory, start fresh as if you haven't bought or sold the stock before. What you did had nothing to do with what you do now, aside from learning from any mistakes. You don't know if you made any mistakes yet. You'll find out if you can replicate your results... Assuming you want to be a trader.

Not really sure why you sold if you bought for long term. You already broke your strategy. 34% is fine if that's what you set out to capture, but if you expected the stock should be valued at $8 and you sold at under three, well then I don't follow your logic. But if you were doing a coin toss then it makes perfect sense to sell. If you were trading off some technical signals maybe selling was the right move. 

If you buy back in at a higher price you will have made a mistake in hindsight. If you buy back in at a lower price that may be good, but I don't understand your strategy - how you are deciding when to buy or sell.

And I don't think you know either.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

jcgd said:


> Purge your trade from memory, start fresh as if you haven't bought or sold the stock before. What you did had nothing to do with what you do now, aside from learning from any mistakes. You don't know if you made any mistakes yet. You'll find out if you can replicate your results... Assuming you want to be a trader.
> 
> Not really sure why you sold if you bought for long term. You already broke your strategy. 34% is fine if that's what you set out to capture, but if you expected the stock should be valued at $8 and you sold at under three, well then I don't follow your logic. But if you were doing a coin toss then it makes perfect sense to sell. If you were trading off some technical signals maybe selling was the right move.
> 
> ...


The price was going up for almost no reason, so I thought that after Wednesday they were bound to go down, my logic was/is to sell, then re-buy when the price goes down.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Lucida said:


> I really regret selling my shares now. I wonder how long this increase will last :/


This was your FIRST ever buy/sell transaction, and you made what would have taken a GIC how many YEARS to give you??? So don't ever view a big profit as a mistake, especially one from not a stable, but a struggling company. It's much more important to control your losses and protect your existing profits. Your +34% returns could easily have been -34%, ie: the stock could have dropped instead of rise the last 2 weeks from your buy @ $2.40, and the unrealized gains could have reversed any minute.

As mentioned upthread, I sell a % of shares when they rise significantly, hence, I have been selling a % of shares in the last 3 days because they reached the % increase I had initially planned to sell at. So in future, perhaps you want to take a similar approach, which can be done when you have enough shares, OR hold until it reaches your desired price as mentioned before, if you're confident in the company's future/don't mind to see your investment/profits drop.

Do you know why AMD has been on fire the last 3 days btw? Like you and I, people will be booking such profits, and the stock will come back to earth; it's not like their debt has suddenly disappeared.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Toronto.gal said:


> This was your FIRST ever buy/sell transaction, and you made what would have taken a GIC how many YEARS to give you??? So don't ever view a big profit as a mistake, especially one from not a stable, but a struggling company. It's much more important to control your losses and protect your existing profits. Your +34% returns could easily have been -34%, ie: the stock could have dropped instead of rise the last 2 weeks from your buy @ $2.40, and the unrealized gains could have reversed any minute.
> 
> As mentioned upthread, I sell a % of shares when they rise significantly, hence, I have been selling a % of shares in the last 3 days because they reached the % increase I had initially planned to sell at. So in future, perhaps you want to take a similar approach, which can be done when you have enough shares, OR hold until it reaches your desired price as mentioned before, if you're confident in the company's future/don't mind to see your investment/profits drop.
> 
> Do you know why AMD has been on fire the last 3 days btw? Like you and I, people will be booking such profits, and the stock will come back to earth; it's not like their debt has suddenly disappeared.


Thanks for the advice, i guess i shouldnt be mad, i did make a good profit! And apparently there are rumors that intel is going to buy amd, so thats one reason whybits going up, another is that acer is gonna be using amd chips for their new line of computers (not a big deal, but its the only thing i could find)


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Yes, lots of rumours indeed, but if they don't materialize, the stock will drop big time, so it's best to stick to facts!

I once bought a stock based on such 'rumour' [not fact], and it was a lesson well learned. The company had been AVP, which had been rumoured to be acquired by L’Oréal a couple of years ago. While I actually made a small profit, my investment, had I not sold when I did, would have gone down very quickly. On the + side, when the stock dropped big time, I bought again.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

Up almost 8% as of now, still waiting for a good entry point.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I think you may have missed the boat on this one - you got your pound of flesh though so you should be happy about that.


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## Lucida (Sep 22, 2012)

none said:


> I think you may have missed the boat on this one - you got your pound of flesh though so you should be happy about that.


Yeah I think so too. Been trying to find another stock that I think has potential but it's pretty hard.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Don't feel bad. I sold my stake in Starz after it popped something like 35% in three weeks. I decided to take the money and run. It's kept going up since but I needed the money and I shouldn't have had it invested anyway. I got lucky so I decided to stay that way.


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

Lucida said:


> Yeah I think so too. Been trying to find another stock that I think has potential but it's pretty hard.


 However just think how you would have felt if AMD started tanking and you lost all your paper profit. Then you would have been disappointed for a different reason.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I have been waiting, or rather expeting that AMD would crash after the ride to the moon from just the end of April, but so far, it just keeps rising. Hmmm, I'm nearing another major selling target that I did not expect to see until next year. To sell or not? :confused2:


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> I have been waiting, or rather expeting that AMD would crash after the ride to the moon from just the end of April, but so far, it just keeps rising. Hmmm, I'm nearing another major selling target that I did not expect to see until next year. To sell or not? :confused2:


 It's a nice problem to have---LOL. Very impressive gains...AMD now up to 4.15.


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

AMD down to 3.73 (-14.84% on day) on an analyst downgrade from Goldman Sachs.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

It was coming, I'm just surprised it took this long. 

The stock rose from $2.43 to $4.39 in a month; no matter the reasons, it certainly was a nice ride!


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

I wonder if anyone listened to me when l warned it would come crashing down. Too high, too fast with no real news to support the rise. The only real question is will it come down with the same momentum. It'll go back up, but gradually is will be better since their will be support. Too many greedy retail investors trying a quick buck. The ER for Q2 2013 won't be very supportive either, so even more patience will get you a cheaper price. Expect a swing like this again going into Q3/Q4 when they're actually shipping/selling products with profits to back up the price

Another problem will this will give AMD a horrible reputation for losing investors money. Not sure how it'll play out but it makes for a good buy opportunity. Expect a ton of bad press to follow. A lot of AMD competitors ( Intel, Nvidia, ARH, Samsung, Qualcomm, etc... ) are doing great while AMD is still turning itself around. Not a bad thing, it just a matter of time maybe 1.5 - 2 years. 

my 2c


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

dragenn said:


> *1.* I wonder if anyone listened to me when l warned it would come crashing down...
> *2.* Another problem will this will give AMD a horrible reputation for losing investors money.


*1.* I don't think anyone lost money here, at least not those participating in the thread, however, there were many warnings issued.

You have been missing in action, and last wrote that warning when the stock was trading @ $2.70 last month, from where the downside potential had been fairly limited considering the 52 week high of $6+. 

*2. *Not exactly news since the company has been struggling for some time already: from a previous post of mine from Oct.2012

*How the years began and ended in:*

*- 2006:* $30+/$20+ [reached a high of $40.33] **
*- 2007:* $19+/$7+
*- 2008:* $6+/$2+ [reached a low of $1.82]
*- 2009:* $2+/$9+
*- 2010:* $9+/$8+
*- 2011:* $8+/$5+
*- 2012:* $8+/$2+

This would qualify as another classic example of when exiting would have been the safer strategy for those that had seen their investments drop over a long period of time, just like RIM had been in previous years.

You mentioned being heavily invested in AMD, so I hope this past month has been good to you as well [assuming you had a low entry price].


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* I don't think anyone lost money here, at least not those participating in the thread, however, there were many warnings issued.
> 
> You have been missing in action, and last wrote that warning when the stock was trading @ $2.70 last month, from where the downside potential had been fairly limited considering the 52 week high of $6+.
> 
> ...


I had a great entry at $2.60 and cash out at $3.80 so im kind of laughing. Cashed out a bit early but im more then happy to see it go back down. The last announcement for ps4 brought the stock up to $2.80 then back down to ~$2.40. I figured this would have stopped at ~$3.25. I was amazed at the greed and blatant stock pumping. I knew this rally was somewhat "corrupt," and heads will roll when it corrected. The news was well known for a while and the stock had barely any support. l can tell a lot of this volume will be gone once the XBox news is announced. A typical trend for AMD is a dump before the ER and a slow buy back after. It's expected MAD may have a neutral to negative to analysts estimate. I'm pretty novice investor but l know how to do my research. If l had been more seasoned l could have made better plays with options and made a killing. 

Oh well, l just set them up for all of my questrade accounts. After this $2.50-$4.00 Jan 2015 call are going to be absolute gold.

Ohhhhh! And for those that dont know the Xbox announcement has already been priced in so it's all just pump and dump at this point.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Out of all the stocks in the s&p 500, dow 30 & nasdaq 100, AMD for the last 29 years has avaraged the best short for spring summer months i.e., May 17 open till July 29th close last 29 years 90% of the time AMD has declined with an average decline of 19%.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

dragenn said:


> 1. I had a great entry at $2.60 and cash out at $3.80 so im kind of laughing.
> 2. A typical trend for AMD is a dump before the ER and a slow buy back after.


*1.* Good for you, but if you bought at $2.60, not sure why you were so negative in April, when the stock was trading at that same price? You didn't comment at all between that low and the 60%+ rise in a single month.

*2.* That's a trend not unique to AMD.

For myself, as a trader and investor, I book profits & rebalance rather than dump. After such a sharp increase that i had not expected until 2014/2015, I had no choice but sell, but I don't sell all my shares, especially not those that I believe to have bought at a near bottom. I reinvest some of the profits in same stock while reducing my risk at the same time. 

What is your next target price? Do you believe you'll be able to get in at $2.60 again? I personally think it will fall below $3.


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

I didnt feel like gloating much! I put my opinion out there and just left it at that. I gaining more confidence as of late and im bringing some of my investment choices in the open. This seems like a good forum to share. You can imagine l made a huge gamble and put 90% of my portfolio in AMD. It could have gone the other way ( not likely though  ). Also imagine l starting pumping this stock. Imagine how many people would be mad at me for buying too high. I did the same with a friend during the PS4 news and he bought $2.80 before it dumped to $2.20 not long after. He lost all confidence and actually cashed out at $3 despite me telling him to wait till $3.25.

I personally cashed out at $3.75 and left it alone aside from the occasional spec run. I learn too many lessons from wall street and greed.

You can also imagine l've been blasted on other forums, so it kind of nerve racking to just come out.

This is my opinion only but...

I think ill start build my positions in the low $3 / high $2's and buy more aggressively as it go deeper in the $2. I think $2.75 is more realistic, but $2.40 seems a good home during ER dumps; and this dump is going to be pretty epic. The console wins will only pay their bills as AMD is selling with a ridiculously low margin. I guess people are thinking AMD is getting a huge piece of the pie from consoles. The true wins in that space is free R&D and game inspired architectures. If HSA initiative catches on which may take a year or two then AMD will take off into the $20 ( Everyone except Nvidia & intel are on board. Even apple and mircosoft are "silent" on broad ). Software first has to be programmed to be optimized for the hardware. So you wont see much gains for software only the potential for it. Intel will be the clear winner in the mean time, and Nvidia is ramping up in ARM. Thats why l think this rally is ludicrous, but a nice surprise. Projecting the price into the future + speculation is kind of optimistic, and too many people comparing this to the 2009 AMD break out ( SMH... ). There are lots of great news for AMD but Dont forget the stellar $200 million WSA payment due Q1/2014. So you can essentially cash out and buy into AMD cheap again, unless the news gets refreshed sooner. Also its dangerous to anyone's reputation to put out bad news while AMD is skyrocketing. After option expire today, the Xbox news is finished, and new puts are hedged. its going to get really ugly. So we can take our time and watch.

Momentum and rumours shot this up so im curious if momentum will shoot this down to $2.50. Although l wouldn't aim for $2.50 since l can imagine huge buying well before and a smaller break out back up. The short interest and typical sideways movement might disenchant a lot of stock holders, and AMD themselves have warned that they would be cash positive in the 2nd half as most of their product will finally be shipping.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

No, it's not about gloating here [and whoever thinks so, it would be his/her problem]. But the fact that you gave the warnings before the stock took off, not while it was sharply rising, is what had puzzled me.

Anyway, most here are polite and very helpful, so don't worry about any criticism, other than the constructive type, and do share and participate here as that's how you'll learn, and how others will learn from you as well [I don't mean individual friends, rather than giving them advice, refer them to the forum instead]. Visible examples are great, not only with numbers, but with words [explaining logic/failures, etc.]. You don't need another forum btw, just this one [+ books]. 

You took a risk with such weighting, but as you said, your entry price was low to begin with, but even so, you should diversify and review your allocation.

I appreciate your comments, so plz keep them coming! Also, I read somewhere that you like to research your stuff before you buy, so that makes you a wise investor already!


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## 6811 (Jan 1, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> You don't need another forum btw, just this one [+ books].


+1. Couldn't agree more T-gal.


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> No, it's not about gloating here [and whoever thinks so, it would be his/her problem]. But the fact that you gave the warnings before the stock took off, not while it was sharply rising, is what had puzzled me.
> 
> Anyway, most here are polite and very helpful, so don't worry about any criticism, other than the constructive type, and do share and participate here as that's how you'll learn, and how others will learn from you as well [I don't mean individual friends, rather than giving them advice, refer them to the forum instead]. Visible examples are great, not only with numbers, but with words [explaining logic/failures, etc.]. You don't need another forum btw, just this one [+ books].
> 
> ...


That was confidence inspiring. I noticed the stock blew up on foolish rumours of a buyout and after that it took on it own life. I warned more so for some to get some cash but buyers beware. 

Wow! I'll be sure to start posting my finds on here. Hopefully discuss with some competent investors. I first started with gaming/tech, then moved into processors ( no matter what the trend is. l still win  ), then slowly phones ( Nokia is my next biggest investment ), and now im branching into some area that are not tech like GEVO ( biofuels ). I also like to look far ahead into territory that analyst cant be bother to figure out. They have only a fiscal quarter or two far-sight. Im starting to wonder if they should even be call professionals now. Their research sucks. Anyways the trend im looking into is gaming and is going to get heated as the only tech will undoubtly force users to upgrade is games. The tablet market is first up. After the PC will finally be due for an upgrade after people becoming disenchanted. The best line l read was "when one set of users are playing angry birds, and another set playing call of duty: black ops 2. That will force an upgrade cycle..." ~ Anandtech forum

Consoles will be the first win

Sony : PS4 will finally be profitable to Sony ~$500 base system
Xbox : no need to explain ~ $500 base system
Nintendo : Not popular here in north america and a horrible launch, but it might surpass the rest as in investment if china lifts it game ban, and it gets its first party games out. Not to mention nintendo DS is selling high, and Wii U it been out a year early and will surprise people low cost and high margins. $250 base

tablets will win alongside it for power users who can now game on a power tablet

AMD : Still in discussion but first reviews on low end APU was playing high end games at barely acceptable framerates, so the higher end ones may just surprise everyone. Awesome job AMD
Intel : Either to power hungry ( Haswell ), or too low power/no performance ( ivy bridge l think, someone correct me on that one ). Silvermount may be intel answer though. Plus intel drivers for graphics probably wont match AMD. So im interested to see how this plays out.

Next the death of pc will turn around as enthusiasts finally upgrade their PC to catch up with consoles maybe a year later. Thats going to be big bucks for 

Intel : Upgraded processors for the fans boys, servers, cloud gaming, etc..
AMD : APU for those trying to get into gaming cheap + discreet cardsfor enthusiasts, servers, cloud gaming, HUMA and HSA will put thing in AMD favour for gaming, great team forming like Rory Read ( stock focused leader ), & Jim Keller ( built the Alpha DEC fastest processor of its time, brought AMD to $40 in the past and trump intel a much bigger company, and built the chip used iphone that sent Apple shares into another galaxy. This kid is the chosen one ) etc.. You can imagine l wasnt worried backing up the truck for AMD after learning this.
Nvidia : More money from enthusiasts, not to mention their other ventures into ARM ( for example Tegra 4 ), servers, cloud gaming, etc..

note l think cloud gaming will fail... too optimistic. Might make for better LAN parties.

Intel, AMD, and nvidia which are at rock bottom prices. Add in any other tech you might want to invest ( MU is looking good, but how much more will they grow?!?!?! ). 

That's what l know in a nutshell


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

dragenn said:


> 1. That was confidence inspiring.
> 2. Hopefully discuss with some competent investors.
> 3. I first started with gaming/tech, then moved into processors/then slowly phones ( Nokia is my next biggest investment )/now GEVO ( biofuels ).
> 4. I also like to look far ahead into territory that analyst cant be bother to figure out.
> 5. You can imagine l wasnt worried backing up the truck for AMD after learning this.


*1.* You'll see that your confidence will grow the more you know! Btw, you sharing your experiences here does not translate into 'pumping' nor does it mean that you're telling others what to buy/sell [don't give personal advice to friends/colleages], so don't worry; it's a public forum and you can share whatever you like within forum rules, but that does not make you their FA. People have to do their own DD & their failures/successes are their own. When I post my stock picks and returns, I do so with a purpose in mind, which does not include pumping nor showing off, but investment lessons that those willing to pay attention may pick up. 

*2.* There are many such investors here, though don't expect many tech savvies [also, most here don't like struggling companies for obvious reasons], but you know, there is a lot more to investing than just stock talk/picks per se [am reminded that u had been upset about investment lessons given in this thread, lol], so don't get upset when others may not have the same level of tech interest/expertise that you have, but just learn from what others may have to offer as well. 

*3.* You found your area of interest [and slowly expanding], so it makes sense that you focus on that, though you should diversify as mentioned before; for others it's banking, mining, etc. [my fav. is pharma].

*4.* I was reading this article just this morning, and I think it describes few investors here:

*'low-priced stocks are a great place to find companies in the “good old bargain bin,” or companies selling for less than their book value.'*
http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybu...little-book-of-big-profits-from-small-stocks/

That's exactly what I like, 'good old bargains' with limited downside potential when keeping in mind that bankruptcy is not impossible. I'm neither a tech savvy [far from it] nor enthusiast like you, but I have not abandoned names like AMD/BB/NOK in the tech sector [though gave myself protection with others like AAPL/MNLX].

*5.* You had studied the catalysts well, and one of the investment lessons I was talking about, which does not mean you're pumping the stock, but to look for these in the stocks that one is interested in.

I have not btw, read the book being reviewed here, but I plan to!

I will read the balance of what you wrote after this long weekend; thanks for sharing!


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* You'll see that your confidence will grow the more you know! Btw, you sharing your experiences here does not translate into 'pumping' nor does it mean that you're telling others what to buy/sell [don't give personal advice to friends/colleages], so don't worry; it's a public forum and you can share whatever you like within forum rules, but that does not make you their FA. People have to do their own DD & their failures/successes are their own. When I post my stock picks and returns, I do so with a purpose in mind, which does not include pumping nor showing off, but investment lessons that those willing to pay attention may pick up.
> 
> *2.* There are many such investors here, though don't expect many tech savvies [also, most here don't like struggling companies for obvious reasons], but you know, there is a lot more to investing than just stock talk/picks per se [am reminded that u had been upset about investment lessons given in this thread, lol], so don't get upset when others may not have the same level of tech interest/expertise that you have, but just learn from what others may have to offer as well.
> 
> ...


OMG! I just read that the XBox720 is not only good for AMD but because all Microsoft products will exist in some sort of connected eco system think what that might do for those invested in Nokia. I moved my profits over to Nokia after AMD; I wasnt even thinking about this when l move my money. 

Also l l tried to summarize what l know otherwise it would have been a full out essay. IF you have any questions or something confuses anyone i'll try to break in down into simpler terms.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

This forum do need a bit more techies. However, I think it just reflects the demographics of the overall Canadian economy. With the death of Nortel and decline of RIMM, I think the tech crowd is at the trough. We can only look forward to Nuance to potentially do us proud in the future.

Back to AMD. The margin is too low on those deals. I look at it as a way for them to expand their developer network since writing code for parallel computing in GPGPU layer is not very easy to learn. Especially with their newly introduced APU, it'll be even more of a clusterF for developers. However, this does indicate that the CEO is looking at the future. Currently, Nvidia's CUDA is the dominant platform in the industry, expanding AMD's APU sdk to game developers will mean more applications developed in favor of AMD in the future. Since they both make their GPU from TSMC, the differentials in Hardware will be slim to none in the future. So the deal, from my point of view is a net zero income in order to gain the valuable asset of developers.

While, I don't think it will introduce any jump in price near term, based on past experiences, console effect on stock price shows up only about 1 or 2 years after the consoles started to sell. The gaming sector has been beaten down and written off mostly, let alone AMD which is probably twice removed from the actual impact.

Current generation APU is not powerful enough, as it doesn't really distinguishing them from the competition, which is crappy Intel's integrated graphics. The only way to distinguish themselves, is to have the APU's able to play modern games at medium settings. Which presents a good enough upgrade from Intel to warrant a change. This is based on the rule in tech where users don't notice any difference unless the performance is 10x that of the base measurement.

It does show that the new CEO is moving the ship in the right direction though.


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## dragenn (Jan 22, 2013)

Causalien said:


> This forum do need a bit more techies. However, I think it just reflects the demographics of the overall Canadian economy. With the death of Nortel and decline of RIMM, I think the tech crowd is at the trough. We can only look forward to Nuance to potentially do us proud in the future.
> 
> Back to AMD. The margin is too low on those deals. I look at it as a way for them to expand their developer network since writing code for parallel computing in GPGPU layer is not very easy to learn. Especially with their newly introduced APU, it'll be even more of a clusterF for developers. However, this does indicate that the CEO is looking at the future. Currently, Nvidia's CUDA is the dominant platform in the industry, expanding AMD's APU sdk to game developers will mean more applications developed in favor of AMD in the future. Since they both make their GPU from TSMC, the differentials in Hardware will be slim to none in the future. So the deal, from my point of view is a net zero income in order to gain the valuable asset of developers.
> 
> ...


I could say it any better myself. This is a play well into the future. It helps that Adobe jumped on the bandwagon. A new generation of programmers will have to learn to program multithreaded and even then Intel has more then enough time to move in and level the playing field. I think the synergy from being the dominant "Gaming" APU will keep AMD relevant. No longer will they be the cheaper solution. Hopefully it give way for higher prices and margin translating to a better stock price. 

This sudden pop is just ignorant investor assuming that the console business will provide 40% margins, false rumours, and some good press. Either this stock is going sideways or down when they realize that. Assuming this goes down. This is the second time AMD investors get burned and may provide more resistance then usual moving forward. IM kind of pissed about that. Although im on the sideline waiting for the hype to subside and stock to drop. If it does i'll still buy some more and hold for the next ~1.5 years.

When the next upgrade cycle for video cards kick in then it'll be time to cash out. New consoles releases usually precedes new GPU + CPU + APU sales. Now that where AMD stock will truly take off. It's a hunch, but the current cycle is just a refresh since there no point to buying new GPUs. AMD even spent more time fixing + optimizing drivers for their products, which will trump Intel's "good enough" graphics. I take it that AMD does NOT expect this to be a very profitable year if this is there main strategy.

I can live with that. More time to stock up and speculate.


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## Dibs (May 26, 2011)

Recently AMDs new graphics cards have been selling like hotcakes, retailers are out of stock and are bumping prices up. Apparently its due to people buying GFX cards to mine litecoins. 

http://www.techspot.com/news/54969-...s-has-caused-prices-to-skyrocket-but-why.html
http://www.brightsideofnews.com/new...are-causing-shortages-of-amd-radeon-gpus.aspx


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## Not Working (May 4, 2012)

Dibs said:


> Recently AMDs new graphics cards have been selling like hotcakes, retailers are out of stock and are bumping prices up. Apparently its due to people buying GFX cards to mine litecoins.
> 
> http://www.techspot.com/news/54969-...s-has-caused-prices-to-skyrocket-but-why.html
> http://www.brightsideofnews.com/new...are-causing-shortages-of-amd-radeon-gpus.aspx


not surprised, however wait until bitcoin crash and i dont think you will see that many orders


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## Dibs (May 26, 2011)

Yes, it definitely looks like the dynamics of a bubble. Mining these cryptocurrencies becomes more costly as more of them are mined. Eventually it will not be cost effective to pay rising prices for the graphics cards for diminishing returns. The sad thing is that right now, PC gamers building their next PCs can't get a hold of AMD's latest graphics cards.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

They'll just have to buy Nvidia cards, which are not bad!

It doesn't get more costly to mine as more coins are produced. There is a fixed number of coins produced per day, and they are essentially distributed in proportion to the effort put into mining. So if the amount of work dedicated to mining doubles, each unit of work only receives half the reward in coins. The other moving part is the value of the coins. If that is rising, then miners are not necessarily worse off.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

AMD has basically tripled in a year. I'm thinking it's a good time to sell.

Thoughts?


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Take the money (or some of it) and run!


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

AMD has really been executing well for a few years now. They are mopping the floor with Intel (the gang that apparently can't shoot straight).


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

andrewf said:


> AMD has really been executing well for a few years now. They are mopping the floor with Intel (the gang that apparently can't shoot straight).


I think it's really a complicated mix.


AMD is beating Intel at CPUs today, particularly consumer product
nVidia is beating AMD at GPU, AMD can't really get any traction here.

Intel is working on "other stuff", I don't think it's obvious where they're going with this.

I think their 11th gen product is shaping up to be competitive again for common use cases. It seems to have better power efficiency than AMD, also their Xe graphics in laptops is very competitive.

I think the graph showing Ryzen 7 4800U vs i7-1185G7 is very promising.








Intel's Iris Xe Graphics Preview: Is Real Gaming Power in Reach for Thin-and-Light Laptops?


If Intel's claims pan out, the integrated graphics of its best 11th-generation 'Tiger Lake' CPUs could deliver smooth full-HD gaming for everyday users. That's a big deal.




www.pcmag.com





I agree that Intel is having trouble, but AMD hasn't been able to push out a top tier graphics card lately either.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

AMD has been competitive in graphics cards for a few years now. They may not be making competitive high end cards, but in the typical consumer market they are doing well. 

Intel had dominated the mobile processor market (laptops) for quite some time, but AMD is making inroads there.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

andrewf said:


> AMD has been competitive in graphics cards for a few years now. They may not be making competitive high end cards, but in the typical consumer market they are doing well.
> 
> Intel had dominated the mobile processor market (laptops) for quite some time, but AMD is making inroads there.


I think that the 3 of them are going to be pushing out some pretty impressive tech over the next few years.

People seem confused with the new Intel Big/Little designs coming out, but that has some pretty good energy efficiency benefits.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

londoncalling said:


> Take the money (or some of it) and run!


I took some of the money but hadn't checked the confirmation slip until today.

Any idea why there would be 25 cents in US taxes listed?

It's in a taxable account so I am not that worried about it but I am curious.


Cheers


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I see it wasn't mentioned in this thread, but AMD just bought Xilinx for $35 billion.

This is a direct parallel to Intel buying Altera a few years ago.

The story here is Intel and AMD make the traditional CPUs we all know. Xilinx and Altera make re-programmable, customized chips (a technology called FPGA) which are part CPU, part custom accelerators. Those FPGA companies also had their own technologies to help optimize microchip design and testing, and in some ways were ahead of Intel & AMD in certain areas of technology. The FPGAs are also heavily used in telecommunication equipment, cell towers, and just about everything mobile.

The FPGAs are also heavily used in prototyping and engineering R&D. I'm a bit concerned that Intel and AMD will remove the product lines, which will hurt many of us electrical & computer engineers who rely on this tech for a lot of our own work. Some companies have been relying on these FPGAs for decades.

Intel and AMD will benefit from absorbing those technologies. It's sad to see some loss of competition though.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Can we make a study case of this stock? Anyone who invested in AMD just 5 years ago did 100% CAGR. That means 32x.

But when I look at the graph of AMD, I see it soaring in 2000, then crashing back to its starting price, then soaring in 2006, then crashing back to its starting price, then soaring in 2020, then... ???

Feels like a dangerous behaviour. Yet, their earnings are jumping +150%, so it feels justified.

I think any investment going up too fast will necessarily crash afterwards because at some point people will want to secure their quick profits and that will lead to a panic sell.

I mean, if ever I invest in a stock that soars 10x in 1 year, do you think I'll keep holding it? No! I'll want to secure that gain so I'll sell it. Unless it's a teleportation device.

Anyone here invested $25,000 in AMD 5 years ago? No! He's retired and doesn't need this forum anymore, lol...


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Can we make a study case of this stock? Anyone who invested in AMD just 5 years ago did 100% CAGR. That means 32x.
> 
> But when I look at the graph of AMD, I see it soaring in 2000, then crashing back to its starting price, then soaring in 2006, then crashing back to its starting price, then soaring in 2020, then... ???
> 
> ...


AMD has had a history of putting out excellent product, then slipping back for a while.

I had an AMD 386DX-40, when intel only offered a 33MHz version.

in 2000 (actually 1999) AMD released the 64 x86 instruction set, which is why it's called AMD64, not Intel64 (They also called it x86_64, but AMD really pushed it).
They won the race to 64bit x86, which was a big deal.

Now they managed to delivery excellent multicore performance, arguably they're doing this better than intel.

So the valuation is multifold.
They have "the best tech" in consumer facing high profile product (ie CPUs).
Accordingly sales went nuts.

They also power both the PS5 and the new Xbox.

They also launched a new GPU, which should be competative.

Some think they might be the leading chip designer over Intel, so of course the price skyrockets.


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## Earl (Apr 5, 2016)

AMD is set to release their next platform called AM5 in early 2022. If it's anywhere as successful as AM4 was the stock is likely to keep going up.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Earl said:


> AMD is set to release their next platform called AM5 in early 2022. If it's anywhere as successful as AM4 was the stock is likely to keep going up.


AMD isn't going to win the PS5 or Xbox in 2021/2022.
also Intel has some really good technology in their pipeline, their Xe graphics might really give a good push for laptops.

As a long time fan (almost 30 years) I think they're great. I just don't think they'll be able to maintain a lead over Intel & others for long.


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