# Investing in gold



## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

I am bearish... But i am not as bearish as some in the article below.
i am sure there are several more out there.
that is bearishness galore.
is anyone here still investing in gold?


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ng-by-analysts-as-china-buys-commodities.html


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

we are not seeing any real inflation despite central banks attempts to stimulate
rates are rising which makes gold less desirable than assets with yield
deflation is still a big risk 

what is the rationale for owning gold ?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am still in Silver Wheaton but have started to scale back except for SLW. Rates rising though is a far greater problem for everyone even if you own no gold. The US because of the huge debt cannot sustain a large rate increase unless a huge QE somehow brings it all down again and that is where gold will come in if you own it. The Fed is talking taper to make you think it is ahead of the curve but really it is trying to get long rates down with such talk. The Fed is trying to talk a strong economy and thus rates rise so they mention taper as if they are in front of it. Of course the economy will sink or is sinking and the Fed will need massive QE and then try to talk taper again. This is all just an end game that is being stretched out as far as possible with as many tricks as humanly possible.

Gold could go down a lot so it may not be a good short term investment but it will hold its buying power as it always has over the longer term just like good quality stocks.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

fatcat said:


> we are not seeing any real inflation despite central banks attempts to stimulate


Of course there is rampant inflation. Everywhere.
Food, energy, education, housing - those are the most important things that matter, and inflation is rampant there.

Yeah maybe there is no inflation in the prices of 50" LCD TVs, T-shirts and jeans imported from third-world countries, made by starving, exploited slave labor that would put an 18th century medieval coal mine to shame.

There is out of control inflation all over the "emerging" markets and third world, and it is not unrelated to central bank stimulation in all the G8 countries.
They are two sides of the same coin.
The west is exporting inflation and importing cheap manufactured goods.


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## dime (Jun 20, 2013)

I understand a reason for owning precious metals is often that it's a hedge against inflation. But there are many other assets that do that and also give you a yield, so I don't think that's the best reason. I think traders like the asset as something to trade with a lower correlation to general equities and other asset classes. Diversification of portfolios is important!

But investors who own physical precious metals play a whole other ballgame, because it's about a holding a physical 'real' asset rather than a virtual 'paper' asset. Many don't trust the financial system and point at the 2008 collapse or Cyprus as examples. Many say they plan to 'stack' and hold forever, because due to the rarity and demand of these metals, they can only go higher as the decades pass by.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

harold, you are correct, i see inflation everywhere, i am referring to the official rates which are still under the central banks targets

as dime says, i should have added that diversification is a good reason to own gold

i have sidestepped it in favor of other commodities though i would buy if it dropped below 1100 or so (which i think it might)

i thought this was an interesting article re. precious metals: http://seekingalpha.com/article/164...er-prices-are-not-headed-for-the-stratosphere


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

fatcat said:


> i am referring to the official rates which are still under the central banks targets


Yeah well gee _of course_ it is under their targets.
Central bank policy of the Fed, ECB, BOE, and to some extent even our BOC is driven by ensuring the respective governments are able to continue borrowing at low rates, and service current debt levels 
Central banks will not explicitly raise rates until the fiscal situations in the US, Europe, etc. are resolved through a political or economic process.

And they will do _"whatever it takes"_ to keep the bond market in check.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

i will be honest with all of you.
do not overthink a trade.
if u are NOT an investor u should focus on basic principles.
this rally has absolutely no new length in the paper mkt.
silver .... alil but not enough for me to go long ... long term
yesterday BS from Ben screwed the whole thing.
on top u had china PMI.
enjoy the ride because the party will be over when u least expect.
forget about PHYS demand .
yes it picked up right?
question urselves if it is sustainable.
gold is a hedge against inflation ... we do not have inflation Harold .i disagree there.
do ur momework and check what happened to OI 2 weeks ago.

GLTA


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

SV, I am not trading gold. Don't worry.
Neither Silver.
GL with your short position.
I don't have a position in either direction.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

HaroldCrump said:


> SV, I am not trading gold. Don't worry.
> Neither Silver.
> GL with your short position.
> I don't have a position in either direction.




I see.

cool.
i thought u were in this latest rally.
nevertheless the discussion is good and u brought some stuff to think about.
take care man.
thks for the luck wishes.
best at ya also


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dime said:


> I understand a reason for owning precious metals is often that it's a hedge against inflation. But there are many other assets that do that and also give you a yield, so I don't think that's the best reason. I think traders like the asset as something to trade with a lower correlation to general equities and other asset classes. Diversification of portfolios is important!
> 
> But investors who own physical precious metals play a whole other ballgame, because it's about a holding a physical 'real' asset rather than a virtual 'paper' asset. Many don't trust the financial system and point at the 2008 collapse or Cyprus as examples. Many say they plan to 'stack' and hold forever, because due to the rarity and demand of these metals, they can only go higher as the decades pass by.


I read ur post and i am thinking that u should place urself as a large investor ok?
not a country for sure.
If u were to hold phys gold as large investor how would u do it and why should u do it.
by the way ... we are not running out of gold nor silver.


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## dime (Jun 20, 2013)

sylyconvalley said:


> by the way ... we are not running out of gold nor silver.


Not sure I understand the other comments you made, but regarding this point..... you should do some research on this if you're interested...

Silver is quickly reaching the point of peak production where demand will extend beyond production because world production will peak in the next decade. This is based on research posted by BMO and other analysts. 
The world population growth and demand for gold over the decades is increasing dramatically, but the relative supply remains very small.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i suspect platinum and palladium are better places to be right now


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dime said:


> Not sure I understand the other comments you made, but regarding this point..... you should do some research on this if you're interested...
> 
> Silver is quickly reaching the point of peak production where demand will extend beyond production because world production will peak in the next decade. This is based on research posted by BMO and other analysts.
> The world population growth and demand for gold over the decades is increasing dramatically, but the relative supply remains very small.


well.
i am not really going to argue over this because analysts at BMO are writing all that stuff.
Analysts are a dime a dozen IMO ... no offense to you or BMO.
i see Raymond James making impressive (cough cough) analysis on natural gas ( not related) .
what i cannot believe my eyes is that people entrust their money with "the analysts".
i just stumble uppon stuff brother.
i am short therefore u are taking the other side of the bet . am I correct?
this is why the mkt has a bid and an ask right?
cheers and GL


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

fatcat said:


> i suspect platinum and palladium are better places to be right now


i think we are getting a little toppy here fatcat.
i could short platinum via ETN's but the risk reward in silver is higher IMO.
ur idea is not wrong long term though.
in any case, what is long term anyway?
cheers


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

the media lol... just like analysts.
again ... no offense to another poster.
not saying that all analysts are created equal either.
nevertheless that is a very long and inconclusive discussion to create, let alone argue over.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-fed-members-back-taper-plan-commodities.html


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Never understood investing in gold.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

MOA

i believe that if futures mkts did not have spec money there would be no mkts at all.
Gold is a millenar vehicle right?
like silver or other precious metals.
what is investing anyway?
is it trading?
buying and holding strong equities?
not sure.
i know u believe in divvys... so do i .
problem is that if a company goes sideways the " investors" leave.
I am talking about real investors that hold large positions.
cheers

p.s examples of long term investing are ... for now.... KO,walmart, GE , XOM, MCD..and the list can go on

interesting that u mentioned investing.
here we are in the shale revolution era for natural gas .
who is investing in the future of this arena?
we had 3 approvals for exports of LNG so far and more to come .
nevertheless i have to look at the calendar and see gas being sold for the year 2019 for 5 bux.
why an E&p company would fiercely drill now for that price when oil at cushing is trading backwardated and we are also oversupplied?.
just correlating the word " investing " mate

have a great night


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

advisor i do believe there is something seriously wrong w that chart

ottomh ... very rough take on history ... something like 1971 ... bretton woods failed & nixon took the US off the gold standard ... the yellow metal which had been locked down at $33 throughout the century ... was that teddy roosevelt who brokered bretton woods? ... who knows ... anyhow AU went from $33 in 1971 to near $2000 in our time, then back down to flirt with $1000-1200 ...


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dime said:


> Not sure I understand the other comments you made, but regarding this point..... you should do some research on this if you're interested...
> 
> Silver is quickly reaching the point of peak production where demand will extend beyond production because world production will peak in the next decade. This is based on research posted by BMO and other analysts.
> The world population growth and demand for gold over the decades is increasing dramatically, but the relative supply remains very small.


i dunno why i go back to certain posts.
i am not even going to mention futures mkt and moreover.
anyway dime.
in ur research that u are telling me to do, what is the average costs to produce 1 oz of silver when u compare it to produce gold /platinum and other metals?
do some more research.
look around. u do not need banks research to influence ur opinions.
look for more unbiased info and u will see that u might be looking at the wrong direction.
do not get me wrong here.
u attached a statement to a metal that has industrial value.
the mkt is pricing it as a precious metal right?
in the end what matters is cost is it not?
dig deeper .
GL in whatever u do anyway:encouragement:


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

"is anyone here still investing in gold?"

I still have mine, and it is still locked in a safety deposit box. I look on it as a form of insurance. Do you get all bummed out if you buy fire insurance and your house doesn't burn down?

I still think inflation is a bigger factor over time than most people realize. But that is a matter of opinion.

The price of gold is still higher than what I paid for it, which is more than I can say for some of my investments. And I sleep a little better knowing I have it.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I think dime is right that silver will have a great future in the longer term. In the short term there are some very big players like the Fed that will do almost anything to stop us from seeing the value of gold and silver and will do anything to make us think there is value in the stock market. Just recently the IMF is trying to get India to lease out 200 tons of gold as they are desperately looking for supply to keep prices down. If were trading we do not know what can happen in the short term so sylyconvalley you could easily be right and book some decent profits on silver shorts.

For longer term investors I think silver holds value at today's price so holding here is not a bad idea.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> "is anyone here still investing in gold?"
> 
> I still have mine, and it is still locked in a safety deposit box. I look on it as a form of insurance. Do you get all bummed out if you buy fire insurance and your house doesn't burn down?
> 
> ...


ok.
so u consider gold a gloom and doom vehicle.
not an investment right?


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dogcom said:


> I think dime is right that silver will have a great future in the longer term. In the short term there are some very big players like the Fed that will do almost anything to stop us from seeing the value of gold and silver and will do anything to make us think there is value in the stock market. Just recently the IMF is trying to get India to lease out 200 tons of gold as they are desperately looking for supply to keep prices down. If were trading we do not know what can happen in the short term so sylyconvalley you could easily be right and book some decent profits on silver shorts.
> 
> For longer term investors I think silver holds value at today's price so holding here is not a bad idea.


dogcom.
what is the cost to produce 1 oz of silver in 2013?
do u know at all?
we are not debating this.
by the way i only deployed 20% of capital Bro.
this is an ultra conservative bet on this short trade .


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

anyway dog and rusty.
most of my bets are highly leveraged ok?
i do not place bets because they look attractive.
i am not demeaning the value of gold nor silver nor platinum etc...
the macro picture is what matters.
every commodity has its fundamentals.
funny enough the other day i talked to a cattle trader.
how do u value cattle ?
or feed stock?
it was an interesting conversation though.
dog .. ur green by now i am sure .... 
green is good bro.
rusty ... lock that gold ... i also have some.
have a good night boys.
i am definitely done watching paint dry in my futures screen.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Wall Street Breakfast news this morning:

"Bullion's bull run set to continue - analysts. The recent increase in the price of gold, which has climbed by over 14% since dropping to almost $1,200 an ounce in June, has a strong basis and is set to continue, analysts believe. Some of the reasons for bullion's rise include heavy demand in Asia, turmoil in emerging markets, high-priced U.S. equities and the under-performance of commodities in general. Another factor is a possible future constraint on supply as miners cut back on projects.".

BNN last night: 

"SPDR Gold ETF (GLD NYSE) Last Purchase on July 15 at $124.18
Gold and gold equities are seasonally strong from July 27th through to the beginning of October. Gain over the period tops 4.5 percent, on average, for gold bullion and approximately 14 percent, on average, for the stocks; this year could far exceed historical norms. Following a breakdown of significant support earlier this year, the metal quickly sold off to the most oversold state in 14 years; the metal could retrace the bulk of the negative move following the April breakdown at $150 (or $1525 for the price of Gold)".

I placed a seasonal trade in XGD a few weeks back....


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Glad to have been greedy when others were fearful! I had some of the no-brainer reasons mentioned above + others in mind when buying.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Both of you are right in the last two comments. This has been an easy seasonal trade when considering the extreme oversold conditions since April. The hard part will come in September when overbought conditions come in and we have to correct it before going higher. During that takedown we will find out if the Fed and the fuel from, new shorts and the speculators getting out can take us back down like last year or we go back up like the stock market did in 2009. 

Sylyconvalley even if this trade doesn't go well you are still going to be ahead of me as I tried to get smart last year, playing and holding gold, silver and the stocks during the weak season.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

nice ... 24 bux target reached .
i am going to enjoy this.
another 20% in.
divergence is starting to get galore .
hope it goes to 26 bux so i will add another 20%.
enjoy ur weekend boys and gals.
dog i know exactly what i am doing.
cheers mate:encouragement:


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## dime (Jun 20, 2013)

Agreed Syly it takes all types to make a market.

Obviously someone made money this month on silvers 20% climb upwards... a sizeable return in just a few weeks!

Several times a year it's known to swing something like 30%+ in either direction, so someone plays the trading game. 

But mainly I like the long term fundamentals into the next decades. And it's not like its some virtual .com company that's going to just go bankrupt in 5 years. For most of human history, silver has been valued as money and for industry.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

This is the one comment the crowd seems to make and that is long term you will be ahead but never in gold and silver as it doesn't pay anything. If however they really want to look at the long term then gold and silver are the only investments to be in if that is your game because all paper many in history has ended up worthless or very close to it but nobody ever sees this evidence for some reason. 

The best way to look at it is that stocks and paper products will do better in times of the stability of paper money and PM's will do better during periods of instability. Very simple but true isn't it. Thirties, 70 to early 80's and 2000 to now have been very unstable periods so PM's were the place to be although very volatile. I believe that instability is returning and PM's are about to emerge from their cyclical bear market and I believe we are in the infancy of the next bull market in PM's unless the Fed can find the supply to manipulate it one more time. I certainly wouldn't put it past them to do so so the danger is still certainly there.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

If the expectation of the degree of instability in a certain unit of time is higher then the reality of the instability within that unit of time in the future perhaps the instability of the future will fail to cause prices to rise. Then again something is what it is The vibration of price might simply be of that which it is & stability & or instability has nothing to to do with that which it is ??


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dime said:


> Agreed Syly it takes all types to make a market.
> 
> Obviously someone made money this month on silvers 20% climb upwards... a sizeable return in just a few weeks!
> 
> ...


dime .
like i said .
there is a bid and an ask.
this run up will have an end ... as any run.
i made my money up on gold.
time to make the money down on silver.
has anyone actually noticed all the mkt divergences today?
we had horrible housing numbers and voila mkts rally together with silver gold ... oil was another issue though.
tenacity is the name of the game dime .
one more thing ....there was not a 15% run in gold stocks was there?
have a great weekend.... according to what u post u were long right?:encouragement:
congrats on the run.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

sylyconvalley said:


> ok.
> so u consider gold a gloom and doom vehicle.
> not an investment right?


It is an investment if insurance is an investment. If the price of gold goes down, and the price of all my other investments goes up, it makes me happy because most of my money is invested in things other than gold.

But if I read something that scares the hell out of me and I don't know where the world or the economy is heading next (who does?) I can sleep better knowing I have some gold stashed away. Just like I can relax a little knowing I have insurance on my house and car.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

for now u can sleep well.
same here as for phys gold.
some spec move will take it higher.... unless this time fast money in length decides to abandon ship.
same for silver with 2 consecutive weeks of short positions closing and OI rising.
it is going to be an interesting battle.
atm i am betting against length.
i hold no silver whatsoever.
nevertheless gold goes down silver goes down..... a lot faster.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dime said:


> Agreed Syly it takes all types to make a market.
> 
> Obviously someone made money this month on silvers 20% climb upwards... a sizeable return in just a few weeks!
> 
> ...


Dime.
FWIW average cost to produce of 1 oz of silver is about 9 bux .
somebody is making a lot of money for a very long time, not this month only.
cheers mate


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

dime said:


> Agreed Syly it takes all types to make a market.
> 
> Obviously someone made money this month on silvers 20% climb upwards... a sizeable return in just a few weeks!
> 
> ...


your argument makes no sense ... google is a ridiculous dot com company and so you don't want to own GOOG ? ... you'd rather own SLW because it's hard and shiny ? ... do i have that right ?

so you are saying that the fundamentals for silver are better than for cars or hamburgers or pants ? ... i don't think so 

money is made on what people _value_ 

over the next 10 years you will do a lot better owning coffee via SBUX than silver via SLW ...

gold and silver amount to whatever fantasy people have about them

cars, hamburgers and pants can produce real verifiable numbers to demonstrate their value (and so can google)

gold and silver ? ... not so much


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

^ u have pure aversion to this stuff right fatcat?
longs are making money now .
it is their turn.
everyone has a turn man.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

sylyconvalley said:


> ^ u have pure aversion to this stuff right fatcat?
> longs are making money now .
> it is their turn.
> everyone has a turn man.


not really an aversion as much as i think there are better, more reliable, more predictable investments ... why not speculate on potash or nat gas or uranium (and let's face it, gold and silver really are speculative investments versus say coffee or oil which have much more well established fundamentals)

all kinds of people will make and lose money in gold and silver but as investments i see them as much closer to pure gambling than investing ... 

gold bugs are aptly named, it makes people irrational and buggy (including me sometimes)

if gold drops below 1100 or so i would buy a little more to add to the physical that i have squirreled away but i would never have them as a significant part of my portfolio since they are just too volatile and hard to value

why put money in gold when you can buy oil which is clearly needed by human beings at the present time ? ... and oil pays you money where gold pays you nothing


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

There is a portion of portfolio experts who recommend a 5% exposure to precious metals for everyone. It's not too big of a gamble, and as they are uncorrelated they can reduce volatility. And if you're into indexing and automatic balancing, it makes sense. You'll automatically pick up some gold (or silver) when prices are lower, and you'll be selling when prices are higher.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

fatcat.
i do understand ur point.
i also agree with you in regards to speculative investment.
do not confuse it with gambling though.
the money behind all these moves is not done by gamblers whatsoever.
in regards to energy like u mentioned above i also agree with the fact that human beings need all of the stuff u mentioned.
nevertheless do not forget that oil is and always will be a very speculative place also. we do use the stuff but it is being priced senselessly.
in regards to natural gas ... well i just want to point out to you that the "rallies" that we see are completely daunting because we cannot break the 4.5 dollars range .... for a very long time.
that is why i do not own natural gas assets whatsoever atm.
i simply trade the stuff... like i trade oil and silver and gold stocks.. actually very few trades but they were not bad at all.
u also mentioned copper... everything is manipulated .
the warehouse storage system which is monitored by the LME is a joke.
dig deeper and u will see how banks and storage operators can manipulate their stuff.
u mentioned GOOG. and i agree what is is in Google/
it is trading at what 900/800 bux.
i do not even pay attn to that.it is out of my league completely.
coal is in the toilet and will stay there for quite awhile i believe.
we are going to have next year a significant retirement in coal plants in the USA.
these jobs will be gone... forever.
other jobs may be created.. sure.
another problem is transportation to asia for coal.
u get that stuff to Europe but it is a lot harder to compete in Asia.
anyway bro,
nugh rambling .
lets move along .
tapering or no tapering.
cheers

one more thing... if gambling is what i am doing right now then wish me luck.
i am doing serious gambling here. calculated risk?
i can say so.
i am shorting silver that went to the stratosphere because apparently we will not have enough phys silver to deliver it.
i could have shorted gold but the reward is a lot less.
i can sit comfortably and add more shorts for several months.
this new length that entered in the mkt now will possibly face several hurdles.
if they tank it again I close my shorts and buy it.... yet again... the circle of life is always to create destruction so u can rebuild it again.
now i am going to drink my scotch and relax after doing my day's end homework.

have a great weekend.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

doctrine

interesting post. Limits need to be put in place for rebalancing i.e., if 5 % of anything including gold is always kept in ones portfolio if gold goes to zero the entire account would be wipped out as more money would be put into gold as it became worthless. There was once a time when gold was lower 100 years latter after putting in an historic high. Gold might be a hedge against a currency crisses it is the tax man that makes the game a little tricky. It is a little harder to hedge against the masses then a currency.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i have no problem with people putting aside 5% in pm's for a rainy day if they choose ... they are supposed to be uncorrelated though lately this is hard to predict ... i just feel like maximizing every penny and when faced with buying an ounce of gold or 40 shares of coca-cola, i'd rather own the coke, because i think those 40 shares are going to be more productive than that ounce of au

valley, you are a trader and i am not, i try to trade as little as i can

traders can make money on anything ... anything

there is nothing special about gold or hogs or coffee, all can be very profitable (and can clean you out in a heartbeat)


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Gold won't go to zero. If gold even goes to something ridiculous like $50 an ounce, I would be pleased to buy 99% of my portfolio with it and make a big pile on my floor.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Doctrine
My bet is that you are right on gold not going to zero. Gold & silver perhaps the safest of anything on earth to rebalance into & few do it compared to perhaps one of the most dangerous stocks & bonds where a large portion masses that rebalance, rebalance into.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

fatcat said:


> i have no problem with people putting aside 5% in pm's for a rainy day if they choose ... they are supposed to be uncorrelated though lately this is hard to predict ... i just feel like maximizing every penny and when faced with buying an ounce of gold or 40 shares of coca-cola, i'd rather own the coke, because i think those 40 shares are going to be more productive than that ounce of au
> 
> valley, you are a trader and i am not, i try to trade as little as i can
> 
> ...



cat..
i know u are not a trader... therefore monitoring what u have IMO is essential.
i am linking an article from yahoo financial.. some will say is BS some will say ... hey that is true..

in the comments section u will see a guy called "HUng" lol .... I am HUng by definition.
there is no emotion in me. there is no what if i did that .. or what if i did not.
i trade well i keep it .
i do not i cut the losses.
mind ya that I also do work ... a lot. and still find the time to make my trades.
ur a good cat .
stick with ur instinct and focus on what YOU believe not others.

sorry 
here is the article


http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/dumbest-investment-mistakes-212357760.html?l=1
how is ur weekend by the way ?
cheers


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

doctrine said:


> Gold won't go to zero. If gold even goes to something ridiculous like $50 an ounce, I would be pleased to buy 99% of my portfolio with it and make a big pile on my floor.


Doc
any commodditiy can trade temporarily below their producing cost.
there are several numbers out there.
If and i say if gold trades at 1100 bux or 1000 bux as societe generale is saying nexr year.... i will always trade something that trades below their cost value.
Traders in natural gas were oblivious to greates opportunity to make money in it when it traded at 1.9 .
that was my best year in my life trading natural gas.
As we say ... the cure for low prices is loer prices.
as u know I would not be a buyer of gold at these prices.
take care.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

sylyconvalley said:


> cat..
> i know u are not a trader... therefore monitoring what u have IMO is essential.
> i am linking an article from yahoo financial.. some will say is BS some will say ... hey that is true..
> 
> ...


interesting article, the guy selling his dell really got me ... especially since he had no reason to sell and didn't need the cash ... my biggest mistake lately was selling my DIA and using the money to buy canadian banks about a year and half ago ... oh well .... banks have been good but not as good as the dow ... my weekend is going ok, i finally cleaned my windows !


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

it sure is bud.
it is guys like us that do not move mkts at all.
i had Dell in my radar at the lows.
did i buy it?
no.
did i miss the run.. yes .
how many runs i missed ?
many .
how many runs i played .. many.
did i ever loose in a trade... absolutely ... who does not right?
one of my mistakes was AMD.
but i flipped and made money in oil.
that is the thing with traders....zero emotion.
u do not cry for a loss . u move on.
u keep moving on.
i am actually in hunting mode for bargains.
is DIA a stock or an ETF?
there is always one out there.
enjoy ur weekend bro


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dogcom said:


> Both of you are right in the last two comments. This has been an easy seasonal trade when considering the extreme oversold conditions since April. The hard part will come in September when overbought conditions come in and we have to correct it before going higher. During that takedown we will find out if the Fed and the fuel from, new shorts and the speculators getting out can take us back down like last year or we go back up like the stock market did in 2009.
> 
> Sylyconvalley even if this trade doesn't go well you are still going to be ahead of me as I tried to get smart last year, playing and holding gold, silver and the stocks during the weak season.


dog.
u diminish urself by saying that.
there is no right and wrong.
we talked about this before.
i am playing hardball here brother.
if one is not ceratin as to what to do do not act.
sometimes u are better off staying on the sidelines and learn than betting ur shirt.
i pointed some stuff to you back then.
i pointed a lot of stuff going whacky in the mkts on Friday also.
u have to be even by now.
trade when u feel the odds are with you.
i am no Houdini.
i just take calculated risks.
not sure if u remember that i mentioned that gold was going to crash.
i meant that u would most likely see the final seller.
i am not perfect and I do not try and pick bottoms .
no one can..

i will give u a hint as to what big money is riding right now.... it is call arbitrage ... in gold... tough game to play and it is drawing not needed attn.
somebody somewhere knows something that us Joe's do not know.
do some research and u will find more.
it is not rocket science.
I hope u came out well and do prosper in ur endeavors.
cheers mate


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

They are probably running the arbitrage through the GLD and Comex and sending it out east.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

the arbitrage is between spot and forwards.
it is minimal but when u move volume u can make up to 6% a year just by keeping it rolling.
central banks are not going to let it ride... so i think. i could be wrong.
it is legal though.
it is a shame though.
it is manipulation of course.
them boys know their business brother.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dog.
it may be a lil confusing for ya.
i will go back to ur original theory posted a few months ago that the big boys trading all that paper would not have enough Phys gold to deliver in case owners of futures contracts demand phys delivery.
think about it and u will get ur answer.
phys gold is trading backwardated to forwards and there is ur opp for arbitrage.
in natural gas salt storage operators do that frequently when spot trades in backwardation( higher prices) ... they sell their gas for next day delivery and gain on that arbitrage of whatever the diff is.
same is happening to gold.
if u own DEC contracts trading at about .5% diff in regards to spot (higher) what would u do if u are a large institution or investor.
u take advantage of that arbitrage right?
it is FUBAR bro.

lets add insult to injury .... when all this length entering recently this mkt is in the same room and all the bulls start smelling each other what will be the outcome ?
as usual the same that happened when all the bears conglomerated in a massive liquidation what happened? u run out of sellers .
therefore a new cycle has to begin... hence the opp to buy back when things stabilized.
remember that the large desks are not back yet from holiday's .... we will see their behavior when they come in full force..
all the best to you bro


p.s forgot one thing .... paper trading is saying that silver is worth 24ish atm right?
gold around 1400 bux.
lets rationalize here for a moment... would u rather buy gold or silver now or when it traded at 1180 and 19 bux?
lets say u are a phys buyer. are u going to line up in shanghai atm to buy the stuff?
ya think they have lines going around the block ?

i loved both at the lows did u not?
hmmmm ....


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

doctrine said:


> Gold won't go to zero. If gold even goes to something ridiculous like $50 an ounce, I would be pleased to buy 99% of my portfolio with it and make a big pile on my floor.


LOL do you remember the nineties when they had booths in malls selling gold chain by the yard off big rolls? His N Hers astrological signs and medallions ha ha now the Cash For Gold people are buying it all back.

Life is a carnival, spending every dime

Another turn of the wheel, a winner every time


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Sylyconvalley silver is used for industrial reasons far more then gold so a lot of the silver mined is used where as gold stays where it is accumulating to some degree. As you know I play silver through SLW for now because of the business model and it has a dividend.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

If there is one thing i enjoy doing at nite when things are jittery is watch a fight between blacboxes lol.
everybody has a hobby right?
mine is trading.
Dog .... i am not here to convince anyone as to what they should do.
that is too obvious right?
ur point that silver is used for industrial purpose has absolute relevance.
the cost is about 9 bux / oz.
there is no shortage of silver dog...period.
other metals when dug out have silver as a byproduct.
gold is costly to produce... but it has not too much industrial usage right?
jewelry is the main attraction here.
If u are happy with SLW then hold it brother.
keep it for ur divvys etc.....
the Fed will taper no matter what .... the 10 year notes are pricing it already....
i would not pay 24 bux for silver and i assure you that any industry that does use it will hurt with higher prices.
anyway . i made my trades for tonite in natural gas ... therefore i am going to sleep tight brother.
take care


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dogcom said:


> Sylyconvalley silver is used for industrial reasons far more then gold so a lot of the silver mined is used where as gold stays where it is accumulating to some degree. As you know I play silver through SLW for now because of the business model and it has a dividend.


silver is used.... and recycled right?:encouragement:


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

when this thing falls it is going to fall hard.
there is absolutely no bids in gold.
GLTA


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

dime said:


> Agreed Syly it takes all types to make a market.
> 
> Obviously someone made money this month on silvers 20% climb upwards... a sizeable return in just a few weeks!
> 
> ...


was looking for this statement from Dime.
Dime .. not trying to yank ur chain or anything like that.
u mentioned "industrial usage" .... but wait a minute ... are we slowing down or are we chugging along with the economy?
do we need tapering or not?
sometimes i go back and ask those questions to members and try to get an answer.
so when silver goes down... it is the poor man's gold.
when it goes up it is "industrial" and a precious metal.Nothing like it.
Dime.
silver is more than priced.
what u really have to look at is the chart pattern .
gold breaks 1425ish, silver will go higher.
going for the last breath?
cheers anyway....

p.s i was watching from time to time how gold traded today on CME .... paint dries faster .... just so u know.
like i said... enjoy the ride


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

oh my.
all the chaos and war and gold cannot go to 1500 in one leap?
pitty


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

and very soon comes the good part.
Barclay's , JP Morgan and Goldman will start unloading all that paper all over the poor man.
enjoy the ride.


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