# Concordia Healthcare Corp (CXR.TO)



## xTr1gger (Jul 17, 2013)

Excited to see how much higher this will go 
:x 
price per share almost double since open ( 1 month old )


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Thank you for your deep analysis. Very insightful.


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## xTr1gger (Jul 17, 2013)

1. CXR wasn't listed so i posted it 
2. Goldstone, you can find information on the stock by going to various different websites and entering CXR.TO as the ticker symbol. YOU can start with google finance or yahoo finance. if you can't grasp how to do that search for concordia and it should show up. god. thats just so much work right. involving all those finger movements to type and click . ugh


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Ha ha ha. I knew about this stock long before you started this pathetic thread.

Care to share your investment thesis? I assume you know what "investment thesis" means.


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## Westerly (Dec 26, 2010)

I've referred a number of people to this forum, in part because of the quality of the discussions and learning opportunities, but also because the culture is friendly and supportive. That was a few months back.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Westerly, you can review the history of my posts on this forum. I have a long record of welcoming newcomers and answering the most basic questions.

I made an exception in this case because the OP comes across as pumper and dumper.


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## xTr1gger (Jul 17, 2013)

If you predict stocks like you predict people you must be dirt poor. 
Mt trading account hasn't even opened yet douchebag. wow great welcome back -_-' 
and yes i am a new user who still looks at newer companies . <^> u . 
Since you "knew about it WAY before i started this pathetic thread" why didn't you start one yourself? 
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Lets keep this on topic and try not to feed the troll.

aside from this trash that crawled out from under the bridge-

what do you guys think about this stock?


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## Westerly (Dec 26, 2010)

I withdraw my comment GS and hope this thread gets deleted.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

no i think the thread should remain. It illustrates perfectly how a few attention-seeking newcomers who have zero interest in finance or investments are, from time to time, able to crash cmf forum with unpleasant agendas. It helps members understand more quickly who to ignore.

concordia doesn't amount to much imho. At least 2 execs are old biovail personnel; it's possible concordia's business plan might be to copy valeant (valeant is new biovail) & look for acquisitions. Notice that the OP trying to push concordia says he has $500-1000 to invest but no broker account open yet.


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## xTr1gger (Jul 17, 2013)

1. i didn't say anything about 500-1000.
2. Where do you see OMG BUY THE STOCK IT"S GOIN UP BUY BUY BUY 
you have eyes and brain. please start using the latter. 

Honestly i should have just completely avoided this site. i want others input on stocks i'm interested in buying. looking for that next tesla style stock. 

And just fyi i have 1 and 1/2 yr invested in financial studies. so look at that, another thing your wrong about. 

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Oh look at that finally some input that has to do with the stock that wasn't listed!! 
So your basically saying the rise will be short lived and won't amount to much. Not worth buying based off of the dramatic rise. thanks for the input.


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

He is not trying to pump and dump to earn a few dollars, he only has 500-1k to spend, and its his choice to buy this stock, he just wanted some backing.
H_P didn't give him backing, he will learn that trading fee's cost lots, likely not buy this stock and probably stick to ETF's for a bit until he gets a better grasp!
But it's cool to watch this stock and share info, he is just getting started!

It's okay to tell him to settle down in a nice manner


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

xTr1gger has made a good call with this stock. 
It's also now one of Jason Donvilles largest holdings. 
They are said to make another acquisition soon to double their earnings.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

*Concordia Healthcare*

they say that this newcomer has based its business model on super-successful Valeant. Fast pace of aggressive acquisitions, rapid earnings growth, high levels of debt.

stk has gone from $40 a year ago to north of $100.

it's always fun to see who one's counterparties are. The CXR market maker on the montreal exchange has consistently been showing high bids for the call with the strike closest to the market price. 

not surprisingly, open interest across all months is consistently higher in his selected call series.

in talking with another trader about this phenom, we decided that he must be shorting the stock. We decided that it looks like the market maker himself (various reasons.) We began calling him our "friend."

will we sell to our new friend the outrageously priced calls that he so dearly craves to buy? is he right? is he wrong? oh my, what fun


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## slinger (Apr 10, 2015)

CXR and the pharma/biotech sector has just been decimated recently. CXR is down 25% today. I bought CXR shortly before their acquisition of Amdipharm so I have taken a massive hit. There is extreme volatility here right now and with CXR issuing $5B of new stock in the US to raise capital for the acquisition combined with Hilary Clinton coming out and saying what she did, we have seen a 50% decrease in the stock price from its peak. What are your opinions on averaging down at this point?


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Biotech is primarily supported by epic drug costs in the US. It's a single point of failure and is eventually going to come under pressure, whether it is Hiliary or someone else (it is congress right now that are all over it). Even bigger news is that Valeant is down 16%. Drug makers might become price takers and subsequently be worth quite a bit less...


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

first, i'm one who would not average down, simply because i'm a person who seldom averages down & especially never in circumstances like the present, with its strong whiff of emergency crisis.

2nd, anyone who paid recent high prices for CXR could seek to recoup losses & repair the position with covered call selling. The premiums are still supernaturally high.

3rd, the prospectus came out months ago. It was a shelf prospectus giving concordia the right to issue new shares. The company obviously knew it was in the market to buy a large global pharmaceutical, it may have already tentatively identified amdipharm. So the recent announcements with the details are only the final stage of moves that were designed many months ago.

4th, CXR has caught the Turing-Valeant virus. All makers of orphan drugs are in sickbay now. Will the democrats succeed in reining back prescription price increases? perhaps more worrisome is Clinton's proposal that pharmaceutical firms must spend a certain percentage on R & D; ie firms should not be allowed to thrive principally by buying up older drugs for instant re-pricing.

as one wag put it, it would make hedge fund managers extremely nervous to see veteran Valeant CEO mike pearson sitting next to boyish Turing CEO martin shkreli when he, shkreli, testifies to a congressional committee as to why he jumped the price of an obscure anti toxicoplasmosis drug overnight from $13.50 per pill to $750 per pill.

it is possible that the two could appear side by side. Democrats have asked that pearson also be sub-poenaed to testify concerning VRX's raised pricing for Nitropress & Isuprel, both cardiac medications whose prices were increased 212% & 525% after valeant bought them.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

In the case of CXR, their most recent acquisition target (and by far biggest) has significant revenue coming from outside the US. These markets usually have some sort of price controls, like Canada.

"AMCo is a rapidly growing international pharmaceutical company, committed to bringing its portfolio of niche medicines to patients in more than 100 countries."

The revenue expectation following the acquisition is 40% US, 40% UK and 20% other. The most one drug will contribute to revenue is 9% with all others 5% or less.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

re averaging down. I'm one who always repairs by juggling options & i'd never seek to repair a bad position by averaging down on the stock itself.

instead, i'd take a collapsed share price as a strong message that i'd made a serious mistake. I'd conclude that i'd better apply myself to learning how the disaster happened. I'd never commit any fresh new money to a serious mistake.

there are long-term exceptions but these are so long-term they could never be called averaging down. The exceptions are the quality stocks that one holds, often for decades. At times of panic lows & mass wringing of hands, such as 2008-09 or more recently in energy stocks, i try as best i can to buy more of the fallen heroes.

many other cmffers do the same thing. There's one member on here who has made a career out of buy-lo-never-sell. It appears he's been very successful.

right now, opportunities in pharma & biotech may be beginning to open up. There's plenty of time for study imho, as it appears this sector, so lately beloved, is going to swoon every time a US presidential candidate blinks. If i had no position in US pharma/biotech at present, i'd probably be looking to start with a US ETF.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> instead, i'd take a collapsed share price as a strong message that i'd made a serious mistake.


You are giving the market way too much credit for being reasonable in a short period of time.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

CXR up about 14% today. So that's down 13%, down 25%, down another 15% then up 14%. VRX is up some 11% as well.

I'd like some finance professor to come on now and explain how this all fits into the theory of efficient markets.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

In my opinion....CXR is the same thing as Loewen Funeral Homes, Iomega, Skyjacker etc. Momentum stocks that had huge daily swings and depend on the greater fool theory .... you know how those turned out. I hope I'm wrong though as many here seem to own this and I wish them luck.


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## slinger (Apr 10, 2015)

I decided to average down (to $60) with the news of the completed deal and the financing settled at $65USD/share and not being re-priced. The massive downward movement recently was way overdone in my opinion and looking at forward earnings, I considered this to be a super low valuation. Even if drug companies are forced to roll back prices in the US, Concordia will not be affected very much since much of their revenue comes from outside the US now with the Amdipharm acquisition. This stock is still very much underpriced and we will see a very large rally in the short term and then back on track for excellent long term organic growth. I will have recovered all my losses on this stock and then more since averaging down at this extremely low price.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

I bought a few shares after the crash with a 3 year outlook. It's time for the company to just digest all the acquisitions, settle down and put up some numbers. The decline in the share price in dramatic fashion guarantees this.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

but why should investors be complacent while CXR "digests" its $3.5 billion amdipharm dinner? it's the little grass garter snake that swallowed an elephant.

the better question is why did amdipharm allow itself to be bought up by a canadian pipsqueak. The british pharma is active in more than 100 countries. This doesn't automatically equate to instant profits for concordia. It would stand to reason that integrating such a massive foreign culture will be a steep challenge.

one can see how the montreal option specialist mentioned above profited from his short strategy. Stock was in the 90s when he "appeared" to be shorting plus buying calls to cover. With stock fallen to the high 50s, he's come out a hero.


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

Sad to bump this thread under the -20% today

new 52-week low today 

CXR $33.53-$44.88 ($11.35 day swing)
CXRX $25.81-$34.49 ($8.68 USD swing)


all after Donville appeared on BNN last night
VRX -10% too
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...onville-kents-jason-donville/article26875463/


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Yep...I have a buddy that rode this to over $100 but ignored my worthless advice to sell half.(he has all his RRSP put into this). I try not to mention the markets or money during our conversations now.

Here's a pointer to the main thread with actual value

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/50825-Concordia-Healthcare?p=837697#post837697


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

Eder said:


> Yep...I have a buddy that rode this to over $100 but ignored my worthless advice to sell half.(he has all his RRSP put into this). I try not to mention the markets or money during our conversations now.


one never knows though... I think VRX went from $17? to $350 (?) in the last 5 years...at least $135-$350 1 year range

I'm stuck with CXR for now... never thought it'll drop from 52-week high (near the M&A announcement) to 52-week low in a month?


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

keeps sinking...


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

blin10 said:


> keeps sinking...


CXR is caught in a market storm. During it's trip from $110 to under $30, there has been no company-specific negative news.

Trading at or possibly lower than book value right now.

Never seen this kind of decimation without a specific reason. Extreme contagion.


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## Getafix (Dec 29, 2014)

Absolutely agree, here's a good video with the CEO making the same argument:

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=731668


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

Problem with the small Biotech sector on TSX... 

Going from 52-week high to 52-week low in a month? on no bad news but Hillary Clinton? 
I'm LT holder now (stuck in it)...


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## Flash (Nov 25, 2014)

With the sector bleeding, would one should invest in either CXR or VRX or both?


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

cxr doesnt hike its drugs up as much as vrx
cxr has its earnings report in 2-3 weeks, and after that ceo isnt blackout on shares, vrx just had a good quarter but didnt help the share price


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

SheaButters said:


> cxr doesnt hike its drugs up as much as vrx
> cxr has its earnings report in 2-3 weeks, and after that ceo isnt blackout on shares, vrx just had a good quarter but didnt help the share price


Pretty massive jump in CXR today.....-5% to +23%? Day traders dream.


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

Last 5 days were crazy for both VRX and CXR... wow

CXR was +20% for 2 days straight... insane

but now they are basically back to where they were, before the VRX "scandal"


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

jerryhung said:


> Last 5 days were crazy for both VRX and CXR... wow
> 
> CXR was +20% for 2 days straight... insane
> 
> but now they are basically back to where they were, before the VRX "scandal"


Yet still massively down from the 52-week high.


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## slinger (Apr 10, 2015)

So glad I decided to average down to $40 and not take certain advice. I did my homework and stuck with this stock. The fundamentals are solid, management is top-notch and it was unjustly beaten up. It was only a matter of time that it started to recover. It was trading at 5x next year's earnings just last week. With $400M+ free cash flow, debt will be reduced rapidly and this stock price will continue to soar.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Is the P/E ratio on this stock really 261 !! If so, is this company not excessively overvalued?


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

It's better to use the incoming cash to evaluate these pharma stocks

It was trading below book value....

The CEO bought $1,000,000 a week ago

At current prices it's more reasonably priced, will it hit 90-120 again anytime soon, probably not within the next year... but if they meet all their guidelines, pay down their debt, and maybe do another small acq it could pop

I don't foresee any more 15% days anytime soon.... it's probably still a buy, but obviously not as good as a buy as last week


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

dubmac said:


> Is the P/E ratio on this stock really 261 !! If so, is this company not excessively overvalued?


At this point it is not an informative metric.


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## slinger (Apr 10, 2015)

dubmac said:


> Is the P/E ratio on this stock really 261 !! If so, is this company not excessively overvalued?


Lol. No, it does not have a P/E ratio of 261. You obviously did not look at the numbers. They will do about $8.50 CAD next year so that puts the stock at a multiple of just 5.8x! Still extremely undervalued and massive upside. With today's pullback of 5.88%, it's a great time to take a position! Good luck.


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

Reviving the CXR thread, since it's following VRX DOWN once again, for the wrong reasons
$46.xx to $35 in a week, ouch...

ER on Wed 3/23 After close, do or die


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Is it a good time to get into old people

I have been buying CSH.UN


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

jerryhung said:


> Reviving the CXR thread, since it's following VRX DOWN once again, for the wrong reasons
> $46.xx to $35 in a week, ouch...
> 
> ER on Wed 3/23 After close, do or die


A resounding DIE. And died some more. Some quick trades previously on CXR made me take a closer look and decide to go in a little deeper. Looks like I'll be waiting a bit for a turnaround, which it will eventually. Hoping today was the bottom, wishing I'd waited a little longer to buy.
Just to be sure, I'm supposed to be buying low and selling high, right? lol.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

what threw the scare into concordia yesterday was ace american investigative journalist Herb Greenberg, who whispered a couple of quizzical words re concordia health.

the company's auditors - same accounting firm as audits for valeant - are thought to be taking another look at their figures, opined greenberg.

that was all that greenberg said. But so nervous is the market over VRX that CXR promptly swooned.


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## mars (Mar 11, 2014)

I used the drop to do a quick trade. Picked up some shares on Tuesday and sold today for a quick 10% gain. I don't usually do quick trades but I felt the drop after the news was overdone and used it to make some quick money.


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## cn_habs (Oct 27, 2015)

Is anyone adding at this level? As long as the cash flow is used effectively to pay down debt I think it's an easy double a couple of years from now on.


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## hollyhunter (Mar 10, 2016)

CXR.TO has been showing support at 28.70 and resistance at 39.78. Bullish indication: %K line is on top of %D line and RSI is in bull territory, which stands at 45.63.


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

Interesting happenings today. This could be fun.


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## cn_habs (Oct 27, 2015)

Hippie said:


> Interesting happenings today. This could be fun.


The buyout talks are in the early stages so it can fall back down to 30 just as easily...


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## timely (Dec 30, 2014)

Concordia CXR hit 44.00 this morning.
The last financing was above 70.00 and recently Zechner, Telfser, and Peter Hodson have selected it as a top pick on BNN.
- Technicals look good
- Valuation is cheap
- Debt is high, but that was the case when the stock was 100.00
- Doesn't have Valeant's problems
- In the sector, there's nothing better, except perhaps GUD

Risk reward is good here. Don't buy as much as


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

Jason Donville also has it as a top pick. Him and James Telfser have their own great mutual fund companies with excellent results and concordia is #1 and #2 in positions respectfully.

Agree that the risk reward is good.

The only thing this stock needs is time to pay off their debt.

There have been rumors of buyouts. Valeant also has some rumors as well. It's normally an expensive industry, but stock valuations are below average.

Difference with these guys is that they don't jack up the prices 500% like Valeant, only 200% because their products are over the counter and have competition.


This company has been flirting around the $40 mark for quite some time. Could go -12% tomorrow, but eventually it will break out or be bought out.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

CXR is one of the 20 stocks in the 2 min portfolio (Globe and Mail) - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...nsive-game-in-a-tough-market/article28228152/
It dropped 20% yesterday - among other drops! some see this as a good opportunity http://www.fool.ca/2016/06/03/why-did-concordia-healthcare-corp-drop-over-20-yesterday/
others say the debt is too high
Since around February, CXR has moved from 40ish to 30ish on 2 occasions - it is currently on it's way back down making this the 3rd time in 3 months.
Is this not a good example of a "trading" stock - one that is purchased and sold with a set buy and sell price in mind?


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

yesterday was some crazy SH!T
rumor 1 +10%
rumor 2 -10%, today another -5%

MANIPULATION ..... and no "confirmed" news for either rumor


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## ML91 (Dec 5, 2015)

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=885090


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

VRX drag continues, down 20% (now only -12%)

CXR -5~6% today


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

Bought a bunch more at 32.04 today. Fun times ahead. Bought some VRX at the low this morning too. I lost big time on this on the big drop a few months back....have finally made it all back on swing trades.


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

another -3% today 

Always Elevator down for CXR


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

Hey, good buy. Bought some more at $30.9x.


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

I wouldn`t be too trigger happy yet.....$29 is a major resistance/support level. Add in the level the TSX is at, and a beaten up US dollar it could be in the $29 range soon


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

You can't play if you don't have a ticket.


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

lol true Hippie, nothing wrong with making rational decisions and following a trading plan either. This stock has lost 25% of it`s value in a week and still declining.


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

Well snap. I'm not exactly pouring gas on my cash and putting a match to it. Perhaps it's a riskier bet than your rational trading plan- which I'm not knocking. I also have a fair amount "invested" in med. weed stocks. I'm getting the feeling that's not a rational buy to your point of view. Are you a square, man? 
Btw, just totally funning here, not really trying to start a discussion. I sincerely wish us all luck on our trades.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Hippie, don't pay attention, I noticed there are many know it all "investors" here. In the bear market it's "too early to buy" and in the bull market it's "things way overbought", in your case it's "stock has lost 25% so I wouldn't touch it". Ignore these "specialists".


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

That's ok, I'm willing to listen to all points of view, but I make my own decisions based on what I'm comfortable with- which is the parameter that separates us.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

*cigar butts..*

Valuation and Conclusion - from Seeking Alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/3980921-concordia-healthcare-calling-cigar-butt-investors

Concordia is a speculative gamble, no doubt about it. The stock could double as easily as it could half. This depends on whether or not Concordia can sustain itself with free cash flow and pay back its debt before it has to liquidate its assets. The forward P/E is 3.1 with a 1.2 P/B, which is dirt cheap, but as Warren Buffett used to say: buying "cigar butts" may not be the best investment strategy for the long run. There's no question that Concordia pulled a Valeant by financing acquisitions through massive amounts of debt, and this makes Concordia the riskiest thing next to Valeant.* If Concordia can show impressive earnings going forward, the stock will soar as it pays back its debt, but if earnings misses are in the future then be ready for huge drops followed by a massive divestment of previous acquisitions. *S&P currently rates Concordia with a B rating, which isn't investment grade. Personally, I can not recommend this stock because of the high risk that's involved, volatility has been off the charts and it will continue to be. I've been hearing rumors of bankruptcy and that's never a good sign.

Bold faced type stopped me from hitting "buy". I'm just not across the line yet. I wish all well who carry this one - you may well double your $.


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

blin10 said:


> Hippie, don't pay attention, I noticed there are many know it all "investors" here. In the bear market it's "too early to buy" and in the bull market it's "things way overbought", in your case it's "stock has lost 25% so I wouldn't touch it". Ignore these "specialists".


I`m far from a "know it all" or a specialist, just sharing an idea which may help someone or give them a different view, which BTW should be the entire reason for this forum.


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

jollybear said:


> I wouldn`t be too trigger happy yet.....$29 is a major resistance/support level. Add in the level the TSX is at, and a beaten up US dollar it could be in the $29 range soon


So here we are not even a week later......markets rolling over before FOMC announcement tomorrow, US dollar strengthening and CXR at $29.19 currently. So Blin10......how does that giant foot in your mouth taste now?


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

jollybear said:


> So here we are not even a week later......markets rolling over before FOMC announcement tomorrow, US dollar strengthening and CXR at $29.19 currently. So Blin10......how does that giant foot in your mouth taste now?


Your humbleness is astounding.)


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

LOL.......Oh come on.....I think I earned one jab at Blin10.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

jollybear said:


> So here we are not even a week later......markets rolling over before FOMC announcement tomorrow, US dollar strengthening and CXR at $29.19 currently. So Blin10......how does that giant foot in your mouth taste now?


I never said to buy it, in fact i hate these type of stocks... was just pointing out how some "investors" here think, you just proved my point with that comment


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

blin10 said:


> Hippie, don't pay attention, I noticed there are many know it all "investors" here. In the bear market it's "too early to buy" and in the bull market it's "things way overbought", in your case it's "stock has lost 25% so I wouldn't touch it". Ignore these "specialists".


I was referring to your above comment on how Hippie should ignore my thoughts on CXR which have now come to fruition. I was just trying to point something out to potentially help a fellow investor, which by their light-hearted comments had no problem with. Once again I`m far from an expert or know-it-all, just didn`t appreciate your original comment.


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## hollyhunter (Mar 10, 2016)

Technically, CXR.TO has been showing support at 28.58 and resistance at 38.82.


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

jollybear said:


> LOL.......Oh come on.....I think I earned one jab at Blin10.


lol. This is a fun forum.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

jollybear said:


> Once again I`m far from an expert or know-it-all



has anyone noticed that the car mechanics on here tend to be pretty good investors.

i mean, there are the automobile mechanics. Good investors. There are the newfoundlanders. Good investors. There are the couch preachers. Alas poor souls, they usually turn out to be boring investors.

then there are the rest of us. A rowdy, ragtag, wretched, unruly, undisciplined mob of hoodlums.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

CXR is probably one of the best examples of guilt by association significantly affecting rational valuation and outlook. It it wasn't for Valeant, the stock would much higher right now.


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## ML91 (Dec 5, 2015)

CPA Candidate said:


> CXR is probably one of the best examples of guilt by association significantly affecting rational valuation and outlook. It it wasn't for Valeant, the stock would much higher right now.


In a way your right however a lot of Concordia's currency is in British pounds so the uncertainty of brexit has rightfully been lowering the share price. Not sure why the 3.5% jump today though


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

ML91 said:


> In a way your right however a lot of Concordia's currency is in British pounds so the uncertainty of brexit has rightfully been lowering the share price. Not sure why the 3.5% jump today though


By currency do you mean revenue? The company also has GBP denominated debt, so it has a natural hedge to currency fluctuation. The company reports in USD, so translated GBP revenues may drop, but so will the value of the GBP term loan.


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## Steven.TO (Mar 13, 2016)

CPA Candidate said:


> By currency do you mean revenue? The company also has GBP denominated debt, so it has a natural hedge to currency fluctuation. The company reports in USD, so translated GBP revenues may drop, but so will the value of the GBP term loan.


So essentially nothing will happen to the company as everything should balance out if they leave the European Union? Been watching this stock for a while but it just keeps getting hammered. Not sure if I should buy in before or after next Thursday.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Steven.TO said:


> So essentially nothing will happen to the company as everything should balance out if they leave the European Union? Been watching this stock for a while but it just keeps getting hammered. Not sure if I should buy in before or after next Thursday.


I'm in a similar quandry. To buy now is to speculate that the $ will go up - which it almost always does when it reaches the 25-30 range. The question is whether "this time it's different"...or is it.
Perhaps the bigger question in my mind is whether this about speculating on a stock- or whether it is about investing in a (company's) stock?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

dubmac said:


> I'm in a similar quandry. To buy now is to speculate that the $ will go up - which it almost always does when it reaches the 25-30 range. The question is whether "this time it's different"...or is it.
> Perhaps the bigger question in my mind is whether this about speculating on a stock- or whether it is about investing in a (company's) stock?




black mac i am puzzled why you would be following concordia.

this is a dodgy stock. Even a grotty stock. While you are a clean bean straight shooting tweedy preppy old fashioned small *c* conservative kind of investor.

something's up.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Hi ya HP.
I'm looking to broaden (diversify) my holdings - largely cuz "that's what most of the advice/books recommend that one do". to avoid crashes in any one asset class.
I have been following CRX because it was (along with CSH.UN) identified by Rob Carrick in the 2 Globe and mail's "2 min portfolio for 2016" - the basic premise is to take the top 2 largest cap stocks in each of 10 different asset classes (ultility, bank, consumer discretionary, telecom etc). http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...nsive-game-in-a-tough-market/article28228152/
I'm coming to realise that CRX is not the diamond the rough that I thought - (it's more like an agate or feldspar!).
Put simply, Many of my eggs are in banks, utilities, Insurance co and telecoms. 
Perhaps I should be simply choosing index etf's (XIC, VUS, VXC etc), and look to make choices among indexes rather than individual stocks.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

oic.

CXR was to be an election in the health care sector, then?

it's true that canada is spotty with these. Me i'm with folks who say get your health care dose with US stocks.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I'm thinking more about looking at CSH.UN now - if I do venture into this. Which US ones are worthy to watch and consider? VHT, J&J. Merck?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

^^

alas black mac i'm not a good resource person in this sector. I've long held a whack of MRK in RRSP so - together with the appreciation in USD - this no-brainer has done the health care sector job for me, for many years.

with respect to chartwell, a friend of mine has an outstanding financial advisor. One of those rare types of whom even i approve! (her only complaint is that he's expensive) (to which i always reply that, for her, he's worth it)

evidently he has put her into another chain of senior retirement residences, not chartwell. Since my friend is the type who pays no attention to her investments, she doesn't know the name. She does say her advisor's choice pays a decent income, though.

another thought i'm having in the health care sector is stem cells. Rather than trying to choose among different stem cell research companies - one almost has to be an MD to make such selections - i would likely go for an ETF that includes a selection of these.

here is a current list of health care ETFs, including biotechnology specializations. Note that, as the list compilers warn, this list contains a number of ultra/directional ETFs, which i believe can wisely be avoided for any specialized sector (they are market timing on steroids.)

http://etfdb.com/type/sector/healthcare/

here's a more specialized sub-list of biotechnology ETFs. To choose among these for strong stem cell candidates, i would have to do a lot of research.

http://etfdb.com/type/sector/healthcare/biotechnology/.


.


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## GizelleGizelle (Jun 10, 2016)

June, 20- $23.1 per share. Going up


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

a gyration


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

sooooo glad I never touched this. 
I recall someone posting a remark on CMF that went something like "a financial forum can cost you money" (which it definitely can), but in the case of CXR, by reading and following up on some advice from others, I never ventured into the CXR cesspool. Thanks to all posts and for the guidance in guiding me away from the dark alley that is CXR!


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

The market sometimes gets value wrong in the short term. The longer the stock heads south, the more likely the market is correct. It is not getting better at CXR. They almost casually wrote off $10 a share in book value. Yikes.


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## amack081 (Jun 23, 2015)

While I agree with the sentiments of above, I have to say there is something fishy about a ~40% drop in a stock. This is a huge overreaction to an impairment, a loss of a CFO and a dividend freeze.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

The dismal performance of their North American portfolio of legacy drugs which led to the massive impairments was a real blindside to investors (including myself). I think the extreme loss in share value represented a lot of anger over lack of prior warning regarding competitive pressures and generic new comers to their monopoly spaces. Add in an executive departure (and we can speculate whether it was voluntary or not) and a dividend cut and it was like a bomb going off. Off course Brexit was another huge hit in terms of financial translation (muted by a natural hedge) and uncertainty.

Really, the Q1 report was not bad at all and I think most were expecting more out of Q2. I think from here the company gets taken private for a low price. The company needs equity capital badly and they have no hope at all of raising it now, credibility is destroyed.

The only smart thing management did was cut the dividend immediately, which will save 30 million a year which is about 12% of the interest they owe on an annual basis.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

oh dear, whatever has this done to jason donville's rep & cred


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> oh dear, whatever has this done to jason donville's rep & cred


I didn't know he had any left after his laughable performances on BNN following the fall of valeant!


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

^^

hopefully Jerome has been laughing all the way to the bank


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## ML91 (Dec 5, 2015)

CPA Candidate said:


> The dismal performance of their North American portfolio of legacy drugs which led to the massive impairments was a real blindside to investors (including myself). I think the extreme loss in share value represented a lot of anger over lack of prior warning regarding competitive pressures and generic new comers to their monopoly spaces. Add in an executive departure (and we can speculate whether it was voluntary or not) and a dividend cut and it was like a bomb going off. Off course Brexit was another huge hit in terms of financial translation (muted by a natural hedge) and uncertainty.
> 
> Really, the Q1 report was not bad at all and I think most were expecting more out of Q2. I think from here the company gets taken private for a low price. The company needs equity capital badly and they have no hope at all of raising it now, credibility is destroyed.
> 
> The only smart thing management did was cut the dividend immediately, which will save 30 million a year which is about 12% of the interest they owe on an annual basis.


I am assuming you sold your position? What do you guys on here recommend I do? I was away for a few days come back and the stock is absolutely decimated. I am down 8500$ out of my TFSA.

Feel very cheated by management as they said in there Aug 3 press release all is well then after reading the q2 report they flat out lied to investors...


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

ML91 said:


> I am assuming you sold your position? What do you guys on here recommend I do? I was away for a few days come back and the stock is absolutely decimated. I am down 8500$ out of my TFSA.
> 
> Feel very cheated by management as they said in there Aug 3 press release all is well then after reading the q2 report they flat out lied to investors...


It certainly appears they should have pre-warned the market. When they released Q1 they must have had some information there was strong competition in the USA. The way the stock fell off in the few weeks before Q2 release makes me think some people out there knew something before it was released.

An interesting comment during the conference call was when the CEO said that the NA portfolio of drugs was never about growth, just steady cashflows. But clearly they aren't steady as one year later they are producing much less than expected! It's become clear than Mark Thompson is in over his head. They basically said that that portion of the portfolio is going to produce 100 million less EBITDA than they expected just this year. What about the years following? 

The only real hope of a significant recovery is a buyout - otherwise I'm going to try to sell on a deadcat bounce. Long term (5+ years), on their own, CXR probably goes insolvent. The public equity and debt markets are dead for them. They need a private savior.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

I know it's a gamble but is this the right time to jump in on this one ?


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

fstamand said:


> I know it's a gamble but is this the right time to jump in on this one ?


I'd wait till the next quarter rolls in. But even if it is better, there is pending legislation in the UK could have a negative future effect. I think this one is in the "stay away" category.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

fstamand said:


> I know it's a gamble but is this the right time to jump in on this one ?


Please do not. In the last quarter, they casually wrote off $10/share in equity. That's more than the entire market capitalization remaining. This stock almost certainly has negative equity.


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## Market Lost (Jul 27, 2016)

humble_pie said:


> oh dear, whatever has this done to jason donville's rep & cred


Probably confirm the fact it's non-existent.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

CEO Thompson out. "It was inevitable" http://www.bnn.ca/concordia-international-ceo-mark-thompson-stepping-down-1.589687
Interesting video clip - also makes a reference to political fallout in US (Hillary win) and it's possible effect on CXR (which is not much)
announcer suggests that the technology stocks are cheaper than health care stocks at this point in time.


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## hollyhunter (Mar 10, 2016)

Concordia International Corp. (CXR.TO) announced it intends to release its third quarter 2016 financial results before market open on Monday, November 7, 2016.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

... but will the company last that long, that is the question horatio


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

ouch. earnings came in (down -34%)


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

The lesson to be learned here is not to invest in companies with very little operating history. After the acquisition dust settled, their US portfolio of drugs purchased from Covis in March of 2015 is an absolute, unmitigated disaster. The revenue from this acquisition has plunged dramatically.


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## Flash (Nov 25, 2014)

Why is it increasing? On hopes Trump will not screw around with big pharmas like Clinton kept saying?


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## hollyhunter (Mar 10, 2016)

Technically, CXR.TO has been showing support at 2.27 and resistance at 7.28. MACD and Signal line is sustaining above the zero level line., an upward movement is expected.


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## saraedward (Nov 22, 2016)

i know about this topic.


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