# 2021 Predictions Contest



## kcowan

*2021 Predictions Contest*
The predictions contest is on again! For those among us who are brave enough to declare where we are headed!

Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on December 31, 2021 in the following format:

S&P500:
TSX:
GOLD:
OIL:
CAD:

with the dollar amounts in USD. The index is just that. No dollar value. The deadline is January 25 at 9:30 EST and the first results will be published after market close in January.

Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before the deadline. Let's hope the markets will cooperate this year.


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## MrMatt

kcowan said:


> *2021 Predictions Contest*
> The predictions contest is on again! For those among us who are brave enough to declare where we are headed!
> 
> Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on December 31, 2021 in the following format:
> 
> S&P500:
> TSX:
> GOLD:
> OIL:
> CAD:
> 
> with the dollar amounts in USD. The index is just that. No dollar value. The deadline is January 25 at 9:30 EST and the first results will be published after market close in January.
> 
> Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before the deadline. Let's hope the markets will cooperate this year.


S&P500: 4250
TSX: (S&P Composite?) 19450
GOLD: 2230
OIL: 54 
CAD: 0.82


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## dubmac

thanks for doing this kcowan. Always a fun way to explore the "Vegas" in all of us!


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## spiritwalker2222

S&P500: 4125
TSX: 19000
GOLD: 1650
OIL: 60
CAD: 0.75


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## Tostig

Hmm, the first year of a Democrat President right after a Republican President. Only four occasions since Eisenhower.

Raw data from Yahoo Finance
S&P500 increased an average of 10.53%, maximum at 23.45% and minimum -11.5%

Prediction for December 31, 2021 S&P500: 4151.73 range from 3324.04 to 4637.03.


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## afulldeck

S&P500: 4400
TSX: (S&P Composite?) 19600
GOLD: 1800
OIL: 45
CAD: 0.72


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## dubmac

afulldeck said:


> S&P500: 4400
> TSX: (S&P Composite?) 1960
> GOLD: 1800
> OIL: 45
> CAD: 0.72


...so, are you expecting the TSX to drop -90% in 2021? (seems rather apocalyptic)..😱


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## Ukrainiandude

S&P 500 4700 (then decline 50-60%) and lingering around 3500 for the next decade.
TSX probably will follow the big brother 
Gold 1950
Oil 50
Cad 79


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## afulldeck

dubmac said:


> ...so, are you expecting the TSX to drop -90% in 2021? (seems rather apocalyptic)..😱


lost a zero....good catch. But hell, the way JT is spending we could see that end of Canada.


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## Thal81

S&P500: 3500
TSX: 19000
GOLD: 1700
OIL: 60
CAD: 0.85


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## MrBlackhill

S&P500: 3888 (+3.51%)
TSX: 18888 (+8.34%)
GOLD: 1888 (-0.72%)
OIL: 48.88 (+0.95%)
CAD: 0.7888 (+0.39%)

Maybe I'll end at the 8th position... 😂


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## james4beach

We're not including bitcoin? (just kidding)


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> We're not including bitcoin? (just kidding)


BTC: 18888


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## Rusty O'Toole

I predict that the markets will continue to fluctuate. Last year I made 49.04% in my trading account. Next year I expect to make multiples of that, as I gain confidence and refine my methods.


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## Rusty O'Toole

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I predict that the markets will continue to fluctuate. Last year I made 49.04% in my trading account. Next year I expect to make multiples of that, as I gain confidence and refine my methods.


If anyone is curious I do not attempt to predict or out guess the markets. I try to react as quickly as possible to changing trends, getting on board when an up trend begins and getting stopped out when it ends. Trying to figure out what they are going to do next is a mug's game. There are so many variables the best analysis is no better than a coin flip.


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## gardner

For anyone interested in winning, here are the numbers to avoid. My entry:

S&P500: 4170
TSX: 18170
GOLD: 1917
OIL: 50.17
CAD: 0.7817


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## OneSeat

After a lot of thinking in this cold weather - 
- 3756 - 17433 - 1887 - 48.52 - .7830


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## OneSeat

QUOTE="Rusty O'Toole, post: 2115384, member: 44077"]
I do not attempt to predict. I try to react as quickly as possible - get on board when an up trend begins and get out when it ends.
[/QUOTE]

Do you have many friends on this forum?


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## Eder

Here are the closing numbers for Dec 31/2021 if any are interested...


S&P500: 4020
TSX: 17850
GOLD: $2001
OIL: $63.20
CAD: $.75


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## peterk

S&P500 - 4700
TSX - 19200
Gold - $1500
Oil - $72
CAD - 0.83


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## nortel'd

If the Covid-19 vaccinations turn out to give herd immunity and countries are able to kick start their economies to pay back some of their borrowed COVID-19 support money, I predict everything will fumble and bumble along to end 2021 flat …
S&P500: 3760
TSX: 17450
OIL: $48.50
GOLD: $1900
CAD: 0.7850


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## capricorn

S&P500: 4160
TSX: 21450
OIL: $55.50
GOLD: $1900
CAD: 0.850


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## Rising Tide

Thanks for putting this on again! Just throwing darts at the board, hope I can do a LITTLE better this year...

S&P500: 3620
TSX:18100
GOLD: 2050
OIL: 53.00
CAD: 0.825


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## ddivadius

I can only improve from here...

S&P500: 4155
TSX: 20660
GOLD: 2150
OIL: 51.60
CAD: 0.81


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## dubmac

S&P500: 4150
TSX: 17550
GOLD: 1980
OIL: 53.75
CAD: 0.80


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## stantistic

S&P 500 - 4290
TSX -19540 
GOLD - 2240 
OIL - 55.50
CAD - 0.87


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## tradesviz

S&P 500 - 4100
TSX -20431
GOLD - 2300
OIL - 50.10
CAD - 0.89


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## Spudd

S&P500: 4332
TSX: 18500
GOLD: $2112
OIL: $71.20
CAD: $.79


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## nobleea

S&P500: 4100
TSX: 22500
GOLD: 1750
OIL: 62.50
CAD: 0.822


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## scorpion_ca

S&P500: 3420
TSX: 16140
GOLD: 1820
OIL: 48
CAD: 0.78


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## Jimmy

S&P500:4,169
TSX:18,828
GOLD:$1,850
OIL:$50
CAD: $.80


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## kcowan

Reminder that entries close next Monday.


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## My Own Advisor

S&P500 - 4,750
TSX - 19,600
Gold - $2,025
Oil - $75
CAD - $0.83


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## Eder

I love the bullishness!


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## Rusty O'Toole

OneSeat said:


> QUOTE="Rusty O'Toole, post: 2115384, member: 44077"]
> I do not attempt to predict. I try to react as quickly as possible - get on board when an up trend begins and get out when it ends.


Do you have many friends on this forum? 
[/QUOTE]
Maybe one. Other than that one, I get the feeling nobody likes me but a few may respect me.


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## MrBlackhill

Eder said:


> I love the bullishness!


I was curious how the predictions were distributed so far.


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## Beaver101

S&P500: 3101
TSX: 17101
GOLD:1501
OIL: 61.01
CAD:1.01


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## Juggernaut92

S&P500: 4100
TSX: 18300
Gold: $1500
Oil: $65
CAD: $0.8


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## kcowan

S&P 500: 4,201

TSX: 19,051

GOLD: $2,126

OIL: $61.26

CAD: $0.806


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## kcowan

Contest entries are now closed. Here are the initial results:
File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki
Please report any errors. Thanks...Keith


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## kcowan

Ealry leader is a newcomer. Welcome OneSeat!


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## spiritwalker2222

Keith,
It looks like you have Capricorn's gold and oil estimates flipped. 

At first I thought who would predict oil at $1,900 without significant impacts to the TSX and S&P 500, but then I saw your gold price.


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## OneSeat

kcowan said:


> Ealry leader is a newcomer. Welcome OneSeat!


Maybe I'll let you know sometime how I arrived at my estimates.
Maybe.


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## gardner

My Own Advisor said:


> S&P500 - 4,750
> TSX - 19,600
> Gold - $2,025
> Oil - $75
> CAD - $0.83


I think you've transcribed $75 as $0.75 on this one.


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## kcowan2000

Thanks for the observations. I will make the corrections and assess the material effects.


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## kcowan

There is no change in leader so the changes will show up next month.


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## kcowan

New leader Thal81





File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki







www.finiki.org


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## kcowan

New leader is spiritwalker222


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## scorpion_ca

kcowan said:


> New leader is spiritwalker222


Where is the latest link? I tried the link that was posted on post #47 but it doesn't have the March results.


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## kcowan

scorpion_ca said:


> Where is the latest link? I tried the link that was posted on post #47 but it doesn't have the March results.


It does now. They changed the user interface for the second time this year so I needed technical help.


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## My Own Advisor

Thanks again kcowan. With my VERY bullish predictions I might still have a chance  Ha.


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## kcowan

I thought s&p of 4200 was bullish! CAD of 80.6


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## MrBlackhill

I'd be interested in the effect of the wisdom of crowds.

@kcowan Could you add the forecast error for both the average and the median?



> The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox's true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members).











The Wisdom of Crowds - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





If the wisdom of the crowds could prove its point in the context of stock market forecast, then one could develop a code that would gather all of the forecasts available on internet and make a weighted average based on the number of viewers of those forecasts (to weigh the influence) and take an informed decision on the bullishness or bearishness of the market.


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## kcowan

The median is probably better than the average to reduce the impact of outliers. How would you like it displayed?


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## MrBlackhill

You could add another row for median forecast error for each column and total error. Thanks!


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## kcowan

spiritwalker222 retains the lead


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## MrBlackhill

So... We're only 4 full months in and:

S&P 500 is already 1.9% *higher* than the median estimate of the contest participants
TSX is already 2.78% *higher* than the median estimate of the contest participants
Gold is 3.6% *lower* than the median estimate of the contest participants
Oil is *18.39% higher* than the median estimate of the contest participants
CAD is 2.99% *higher* than the median estimate of the contest participants


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## spiritwalker2222

Not what we were expecting, but I'm sure we all could agree that predicting the outcome this year would be tougher than normal.


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## kcowan

Yes but we are not at yearend yet. Many are expecting a correction...


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## MrBlackhill

kcowan said:


> Yes but we are not at yearend yet. Many are expecting a correction...


Yes, I am.

But it's 50/50. Either the bubble continues inflating or pops. We're in a such unstable situation.


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## afulldeck

Come on TSX kick a little higher....daddy needs a new bike. 

really surprise on how well the dollar and oil have been doing....


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## Jimmy

The RSI for the S&P and TSX are both 66, where 50 is avg and 80 is overbought so a little overpriced now. There is usually a pullback of 10% every 11 months which I think should take place before the YE.


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## afulldeck

Jimmy said:


> The RSI for the S&P and TSX are both 66, where 50 is avg and 80 is overbought so a little overpriced now. There is usually a pullback of 10% every 11 months which I think should take place before the YE.


Jimmy your hurting Daddy's feelings. He really wants a new bike.


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## spiritwalker2222

afulldeck said:


> Jimmy your hurting Daddy's feelings. He really wants a new bike.


New bike, haven't you heard there is a bike shortage. I was lucky to get my hands on a new YZ250FX.


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## afulldeck

spiritwalker2222 said:


> New bike, haven't you heard there is a bike shortage. I was lucky to get my hands on a new YZ250FX.


crap. No I didn't hear that....I'm so tired of the **** that is going on.....


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## Eder

After a long steady climb the last year the Used Harley Index (UHI) has retraced some of those gains in Canada and are again offering reasonable PM.s (price/mileage)


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## spiritwalker2222

Eder said:


> After a long steady climb the last year the Used Harley Index (UHI) has retraced some of those gains in Canada and are again offering reasonable PM.s (price/mileage)


Harley's have always had the most affordable sound to price ratio.


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## MrBlackhill

I enjoy this battle of TSX against S&P 500. At the beginning of the year, I was betting that TSX would beat S&P 500. I was also betting that they would both beat NASDAQ. So far, so good.


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## kcowan

New leader is ahem kcowan. Date is actually 5-31





File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki
 






www.finiki.org


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## kcowan

The leader at half time is Spudd.


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## kcowan

MyOwnAdvisor is the new leader.


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## afulldeck

kcowan said:


> MyOwnAdvisor is the new leader.


Don't I get closest to the hole at .1% for S&P500


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## kcowan

afulldeck said:


> Don't I get closest to the hole at .1% for S&P500


I think the category is closest loser!


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## MrBlackhill

I was pretty bearish but the year is not done yet.


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## Ukrainiandude

Strategists at Goldman Sachs on Thursday lifted their S&P 500 targets for both this year and next, citing better-than-expected earnings and lower-than-expected interest rates.

The investment bank lifted its year-end S&P 500 SPX, 0.41% target to 4,700 from 4,300 — implying a 7% advance to the end of 2021 — and moved its 2022 target to 4,900 from 4,600. According to Bloomberg News, that’s the highest target on Wall Street.

Goldman knows better when the bubble to burst.


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## kcowan

Yes if The Fed keeps giving money away, we will inflate our way out of debt. Last time I checked, I was 86% equities and the 50-50 split was grown with the decline of our dollar. But don't ask me to forecast anything!


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## james4beach

afulldeck said:


> Come on TSX kick a little higher....daddy needs a new bike.


An absolutely amazing year for the TSX so far. Actually up *more* year-to-date (in CAD) than the S&P 500 is.


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## Ukrainiandude

The USA trade balance deficit, new record. The annual U.S. trade deficit is on track to top $1 trillion for the first time.


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## kcowan

The markets can dismiss that as pandemic-related.


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## Ukrainiandude

kcowan said:


> The markets can dismiss that as pandemic-related.


Markets can, but the economic laws can’t.
Everything is intertwined.


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## kcowan

Ukrainiandude said:


> Markets can, but the economic laws can’t.
> Everything is intertwined.


Do you still believe that markets follow logic?
Have you heard about Bitcoin and Tesla?


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## My Own Advisor

kcowan said:


> MyOwnAdvisor is the new leader.


Woohoo!

I will enjoy it while it lasts 

Ha.


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## kcowan

nobleea takes the lead






File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki







www.finiki.org


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## Eder

kcowan said:


> nobleea takes the lead
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.finiki.org



As he/she should...best stock picker here.


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## nobleea

Eder said:


> As he/she should...best stock picker here.


Haha, thanks. But no, I was very lucky/confident to go all in on the COVID rebound last year.
I knew I would take the lead at least some months on this. Not sure it will last the rest of the year.


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## kcowan

I think everyone who gets the lead in the second half deserves recognition for being prescient 6 to 9 months ahead.


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## MrBlackhill

I expect mean reversion pretty soon... There's still 3 months to go. Maybe I'll have better luck in 2022 if it doesn't happen in 2021! The current situation that we have won't last 3 years. We'll have at least a -10% correction, maybe -15%. But no recession in sight. If there's no such correction in the next 3 months, then I'll happily participate in the 2022 contest! (Though I'm very bad at trying to estimate gold, oil and CAD prices, the stock market is easier)


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## afulldeck

kcowan said:


> nobleea takes the lead
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.finiki.org


How is the forecast positioning being calculated? afulldeck is 1st with Gold, 3nd with TSX, 3rd with S&P but 15th overall? I'm confused....


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## kcowan

afulldeck said:


> How is the forecast positioning being calculated? afulldeck is 1st with Gold, 3nd with TSX, 3rd with S&P but 15th overall? I'm confused....


We average the percent error in each category so your 33.74% in oil and 9.04% in C$ were ranked 21 and 20 so the law of averages got to you. One could argue that it is harder to be right on the first two categories. So if everyone agrees to an unequal weighting, I will change it for next year. But imagine the discussion about what those weights should be!


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## scorpion_ca

kcowan said:


> nobleea takes the lead
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki
> 
> 
> 
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> 
> 
> 
> www.finiki.org


I don't see my name in the contest this time.


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## afulldeck

kcowan said:


> We average the percent error in each category so your 33.74% in oil and 9.04% in C$ were ranked 21 and 20 so the law of averages got to you. One could argue that it is harder to be right on the first two categories. So if everyone agrees to an unequal weighting, I will change it for next year. But imagine the discussion about what those weights should be!


No issues, I was just wondering how it was calculated.


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## kcowan

scorpion_ca said:


> I don't see my name in the contest this time.


Have a look now!


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## scorpion_ca

kcowan said:


> Have a look now!


Thanks.


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## My Own Advisor

C'mon, winning (so far) in two categories....doesn't that count 

A LONG ways to go yet fans.

There is always October coming...


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## Ukrainiandude

Millennials will power a bull market in stocks for decades: Ark Invest's Cathie Wood


https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/millennials-will-power-a-bull-market-in-stocks-for-decades-ark-invests-cathie-wood-161357927.html


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## Ukrainiandude

*How did Facedrive, a tiny Canadian tech startup, become a multibillion-dollar company?








How did Facedrive, a tiny Canadian tech startup, become a multibillion-dollar company?


Its stock has soared as it has branched into everything from COVID-19 contact tracing to ride sharing – yet it’s also a small company with meagre revenue and no high-profile venture capital behind it. Its CEO offers few insights into how it all works – or what it might do next




www.theglobeandmail.com




Facedrive Co-Founder Says Rideshare Startup Mulling Bankruptcy - shares have plunged 96% since February


Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


*


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## kcowan

My Own Advisor takes the lead going into the final quarter.

https://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2021Predictions.jpg


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## MrBlackhill

kcowan said:


> My Own Advisor takes the lead going into the final quarter.
> 
> https://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2021Predictions.jpg


Thanks! Rankings seems to be mainly driven by the oil price prediction, which had the widest range of expectations. I'm certainly no good at predicting oil price.


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## kcowan

Yes a 20% variability is doubtful in any of the other indicators especially either way!


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## My Own Advisor

kcowan said:


> My Own Advisor takes the lead going into the final quarter.
> 
> File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki


Sweet.

Let's do this


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## kcowan

My Own Advisor said:


> Sweet.
> 
> Let's do this


Starting to look like a trend!
File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki


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## My Own Advisor

Ha, gotta hold off peterk and others with 7 weeks to go! At least I should win the oil sweepstakes. Nobody guessed higher than I did?


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## nobleea

The suspense is killing me here...


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## MrMatt

Well apparently we all suck, and we really suck with oil predictions.


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## kcowan2000

Sorry I got totally preoccupied and forgot about Dec 1st. Will correct that this weekend.


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## kcowan

nobleea is leading into the home stretch.

My birthday celebrations spread across the month-end!

File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki


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## nobleea

kcowan said:


> nobleea is leading into the home stretch.
> 
> My birthday celebrations spread across the month-end!
> 
> File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki


As Palpatine said, Excellent, everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.


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## nobleea

Well sheeeet. Was going to start renting out my magic 8 ball.


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## kcowan2000

Sorry about the NYE delays. 

Our 2021 forecast winner is MyOwnAdvisor. Congratulations!
Runners up are peterk and Spudd.

Category winners are noted in the results.





File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki







www.finiki.org


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## My Own Advisor

kcowan2000 said:


> Sorry about the NYE delays.
> 
> Our 2021 forecast winner is MyOwnAdvisor. Congratulations!
> Runners up are peterk and Spudd.
> 
> Category winners are noted in the results.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> File:CMF 2021Predictions.jpg - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.finiki.org


Woohoo!!!

Thanks for running again KCowan - always fun 

Looking forward to the 2022 edition!


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## londoncalling

My Own Advisor said:


> Woohoo!!!
> 
> Thanks for running again KCowan - always fun
> 
> Looking forward to the 2022 edition!


Grats Mark! and as always thanks Keith. Happy New Year all.


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## Eder

Thanks for doing this...lots of fun!
Grats MOA!


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## kcowan

Here is the rankings of the various categories;


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## OneSeat

For what it is worth my predictions were all "same as Jan 1st".
At least Gold and Can$ did well!


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