# Automation 4.0



## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

A lot of people are in the dark with what appears to be coming down the pipeline when a lot of jobs are automated.

The first level of automation hit agriculture last century and it was devastating, but many found other jobs. The second level hit manufacturing to a great degree and overseas outsourcing did the rest. Now the industries will come home fully automated and the outsourcers will be out of work. Apple and Ikea have whole factories of robots making stuff in their home countries with one or two floor supervisors.

Now the 3rd stage appear to be upon us happening in the service sector. A lot of the low fruit has already been automated like tellers and travel agents and the next level is front line staff like servers, cooks, etc. These are mostly unskilled jobs so the people have really nothing else to go to.

The next phase is the scary. In stage 4.0, the professional jobs are targeted. Accountants, lawyers, and even doctors are on the line. Software is replacing a good portion of these industries. There are now automated tax return programs and programs to do legal research. And they want to hook up dozens of those Watson machines to act as first line doctors right in your own home. And if medical research gets a handle on the remaining big diseases like cancer, ALS, MS, Diabetes etc, be a lot less sick people around.

BUT the last phase is truly disruptive because it stands to put the biggest companies out of business. Things like 3D printing and small scale solar, fusion, electric cars are on their way. And everything will be dirt cheap so deflation is likely in the cards somewhere down the line.


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

Even wars, which have typically been mankind's answer to economic woes, are becoming increasingly automated.

Where's Schwarzenegger when you need him?


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Nemo2 said:


> Even wars, which have typically been mankind's answer to economic woes, are becoming increasingly automated.
> 
> Where's Schwarzenegger when you need him?


 .... yeah, where is him these days? Last heard he moved onto the Expendables (3), back in acting.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

tygrus said:


> A lot of people are in the dark with what appears to be coming down the pipeline when a lot of jobs are automated. ... *And they want to hook up dozens of those Watson machines to act as first line doctors right in your own home. *And if medical research gets a handle on the remaining big diseases like cancer, ALS, MS, Diabetes etc, be a lot less sick people around.
> 
> BUT the last phase is truly disruptive because it stands to put the biggest companies out of business. Things like 3D printing and small scale solar, fusion, electric cars are on their way. And everything will be dirt cheap so deflation is likely in the cards somewhere down the line.


 ... don't think you can replace a medical doctor with a robo-doc ... nothing can replace the "human" touch.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

I saw an article that McDonalds is experimenting with pre-ordering/pick up. You put your order in online before you go pick it up and probably a robot made it for you. And it doesn't matter if you are late, its all warmed food anyway. Think of the bottleneck at the drive through that would solve.

Another restaurant is letting people put their own orders in via ipad, so no waiter, just a server to bring you your food. Should lower tips too.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

Beaver101 said:


> ... don't think you can replace a medical doctor with a robo-doc ... nothing can replace the "human" touch.


Have you been to a doctor lately? there is no human touch anymore, its a buffet line and the doctor is stressed to the max. Something like a frontline computer could drastically reduce the amount of minor doctor visits and free up doctors to treat the really tough diseases.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

tygrus said:


> I saw an article that McDonalds is experimenting with pre-ordering/pick up. You put your order in online before you go pick it up and probably a robot made it for you. And it doesn't matter if you are late, its all warmed food anyway. Think of the bottleneck at the drive through that would solve.
> 
> Another restaurant is letting people put their own orders in via ipad, so no waiter, just a server to bring you your food. *Should lower tips too*.


 ... yes and increase the employment line and soon, MCD can shrink their number of outlets too. It's a 2 way street - automate everything, less people to pay, less jobs and then less people to go out and eat. Well, at least at MCD. Doesn't affect fine diners /the high end tippers.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ij_Dg1KWDvc


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

So this automation is generally a good thing right, frees up people from the jobs that simple software/robotics can now do. To me it seems like a very slow process, likely because many people resist change and stick with what they know. Remember back in the early 80's when the computers were going to do away with paper in a few years .... well, turns out 30+ years and it's just now making a impact. As of this year I only have two paper bills left, likely be a few more before before they are gone as they are city related. 

I guess over time this shift will put more strain on our education system as more unskilled jobs will disappear and people will need a higher level of knowledge to get a job. On the education side, I wonder when teachers will be targeted and replaced by technology ... maybe brick and motar schools will become a thing of the past as well. "Kids, your assignment today is to read wikipedia from the following URLs" says the Skype teacher to the children at home.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

tygrus said:


> Have you been to a doctor lately? there is no human touch anymore, its a buffet line and the doctor is stressed to the max. Something like a frontline computer could drastically reduce the amount of minor doctor visits and free up doctors to treat the really tough diseases.


 ... okay, let me replace the "robo-doc" with "robo-surgeon". 

Still need a human doctor also to explain or complain about your maladies ... so a robo-doc is going to listen and take in what you are saying and then go and prescribe whatever that needs to fix you up?


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

The prediction is that in 20 yrs whatever university education is left will be delivered online. Think of the money saved. Education will finally be free.

And there is nothing wrong with using wikis for basic knowledge. Why should I have to study what some ancient explorer did and then regurgitate it on a test when I can just look it up when I need it, if ever.

Education will have to change to meet the future, not the past.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

tygrus said:


> The prediction is that in 20 yrs whatever university education is left will be delivered online. Think of the money saved. Education will finally be free.
> 
> And there is nothing wrong with using wikis for basic knowledge. Why should I have to study what some ancient explorer did and then regurgitate it on a test when I can just look it up when I need it, if ever.
> 
> Education will have to change to meet the future, not the past.


I have been saying this for years...

I am glad somebody is on the same page.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ then why are there so many teachers in this province? Population explosion?


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## kaleb0 (Apr 26, 2011)

Beaver101 said:


> ... okay, let me replace the "robo-doc" with "robo-surgeon".
> 
> Still need a human doctor also to explain or complain about your maladies ...


Actually, we are not too far away from near human level speech recognition, interpretation, etc. There are also huge strides being made in computerized facial recognition and object recognition to the point where it is very much feasible to have a computer 'look' at something or somebody and determine with near perfect accuracy what or who is being 'looked at'.

Within 30 to 50 years, yes, an actual GP's job will be doable by AI, including the 'listening and explaining' part of the job.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

When free trade was first being discussed..........the general consensus was that although the goods would be manufactured in China and other places, the need for transportation of the goods would greatly expand the requirements for docks and dock workers. It was envisioned there would be many large warehouses built dockside to enable the unloading and repackaging of goods.......to be ready to ship by truck or rail to their destinations. Every factory or store would require stock workers to unload trailers.

Then some guy comes along and invents the "inter-model" container that is loaded in China at the factory, loaded onto a ship by crane, shipped across the ocean, and unloaded by giant cranes onto a waiting truck or rail car..........no dock workers needed..........no warehouses........no work.

Automation is great........and has been considered since the 1960s Popular Mechanics magazines envisioned all the leisure time we would have as a result.

There was a lot of discussion around 3 or 4 day work weeks at the time.

But.........everyone forgot about the money. Where would the people earn the money to pay their bills and enjoy their leisure time?

And there was the problem of............who would want to perform essential work..............if everyone else was being paid to do nothing.

Automation is great..........Hopefully they figure out how everyone will live without money.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

kaleb0 said:


> Within 30 to 50 years, yes, an actual GP's job will be doable by AI, including the 'listening and explaining' part of the job.


You are way too pessimistic. I just heard about a company who is building a real life "her" app. Kind of a cross between siri and google where you will speak your requests to the search and get personalized answers and information. How much of a leap is it from that to an app where you tell the computer your symptoms, feed in information from your biometric device and get a diagnosis or at the very least some advice for the day to stay in optimal health.


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## Taraz (Nov 24, 2013)

As someone in the "job destroyer" industry (software and automation), I don't think it's as bad as you're making it out to be. Consider this:

1) Productivity is increasing. If wages go down, the costs of goods can (and will) go down accordingly to compensate.

2) Personal services type jobs (housekeepers, hairdressers, babysitters, dance instructors, lawn maintenance, etc.) pay ok these days, and there's lots of demand. There are still lots of jobs for unskilled/semi-skilled people that want to work hard.

3) Just as the agricultural revolution, industrial revolution, and computer revolutions didn't destroy (all of the) jobs, this revolution won't either. There will be new jobs that you haven't even thought of yet.

However, I think that we'll see big changes. Some people will definitely be losers, and others will win big. I wouldn't plan on a career as any type of driver (i.e. a long haul trucker or taxi driver) because these jobs will disappear as soon as self-driving cars are perfected. 

There will always be design jobs, and science jobs, and art jobs. The creative class will be the upper class, and their support workers will be the middle/lower class.

Overall (even if wages fall) the average standard of living will continue to increase, because total efficiency will increase. Also, the collaborative economy (shared self-driving vehicles, open-source technology, etc.) will improve conditions for everyone.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

http://www.theguardian.com/technolo...architects-future-professions-jobs-technology


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