# Polar Vortex back again?



## carverman

Looking at the weather maps and what is happening in western Canada and the US reminds us of last winter again.

Don't like the looks of that, because when cold and warm fronts collide against each other..you get super cold rain
that freezes onto trees and power lines..and they are predicting this coming winter as a "T-Rex winter"? 
Anybody have a copy of 2014/2015 the Farmers almanac? 


> The Almanac has been foretelling weather forecasts for 223 years, and claim their predictions have an average accuracy rating of approximately 80 per cent. The *predictions are derived from a secret formula devised in 1792 *by the almanac’s founder, Robert B. Thomas.


Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/t-rex-...-old-farmer-s-almanac-1.2012804#ixzz3IrGnmuXq

Secret formula..pshaw! ? I thought it was all due to the colour of the hairs on a woolly bear caterpillar. :biggrin:



> Local folklore of the American Northeast and the American South hold that "woolly bears" (or "wooly worms" in the South) have the ability to predict the weather, similar to that of the groundhog. The forthcoming severity of a winter may be indicated by the amount of black on the Isabella tiger moth's caterpillar—the most familiar woolly bear in North America. *More brown than black is said to mean a mild winter, but more black than brown is supposed to mean a harsh winter*.[10] However, the relative width of the black band varies among instars, not according to weather.


The cold snap is definitely coming to Ontario..
Is everyone ready with their emergency generators, long johns, and lots of candles?


----------



## kcowan

Hurricane Nuri in the Bering Sea created this by moving the Jet Stream. It was predicted last week.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I'll be thinking about all of you while I'm kickin' back on the beach in Baja. :biggrin:

Sorry, couldn't resist.


----------



## sags

The landlord pays our heat (natural gas) so we couldn't add a gas fireplace, but the good news is we have an electric one for emergencies...

That should work out well....................

Maybe we should get a big arse candle...........and sit around it..........wonder if that would work.........hmmm.


----------



## nathan79

Looks very similar to Accuweather's winter forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...cuweather-winter-forecast-for-canada/36489273

This is a typical El Nino configuration, but considering that El Nino currently very weak I'd put less stock in these long range forecasts. 

It's showing another mild winter for the west coast. I hope these forecasts are wrong because I'm ready for some normal or more coolish weather. We just had a record warm October here and one of the warmest summers on record. It seems like the first frost is later every year.


----------



## Beaver101

> ... Secret formula..pshaw! ? I thought it was all due to the colour of the hairs on a woolly bear caterpillar.
> 
> Local folklore of the American Northeast and the American South hold that "woolly bears" (or "wooly worms" in the South) have the ability to predict the weather, similar to that of the groundhog. The forthcoming severity of a winter may be indicated by the amount of black on the Isabella tiger moth's caterpillar—the most familiar woolly bear in North America. More brown than black is said to mean a mild winter, but more black than brown is supposed to mean a harsh winter.[10] However, the relative width of the black band varies among instars, not according to weather. The cold snap is definitely coming to Ontario..
> 
> Is everyone ready with their emergency generators, long johns, and lots of candles?


 ...interesting and do we have "woolly hair caterpillars" in Ontario? Gotta check it out ... all I know they all look fuzzy ... and don't touch! :biggrin:

I think the polar vortex has started in Minnesota (USA) already on Monday ... highways were blizzed out ... and I thought this phenomen is a Canadian thing. 

No generators but got long johns, candles, and home-made heater (18" terra-cotta) ready.... :biggrin:


----------



## CPA Candidate

I really hope that we have another brutal winter, it is great for natural gas prices.


----------



## Beaver101

CPA Candidate said:


> I really hope that *we have another brutal win*ter, it is great for natural gas prices.


 ... by "we" you mean for "Manitoba" only, right? :encouragement:


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

There is always a Polar Vortex, only once in a while does it descend from the arctic circle. This isn't one of those times, just a plain ol' early winter storm.

Where is that much advertized Global Warming when we need it? What a ripoff.


----------



## carverman

Beaver101 said:


> ...interesting and do we have "woolly hair caterpillars" in Ontario? Gotta check it out ... all I know they all look fuzzy ... and don't touch! :biggrin:


Yes of course. I have seen a few of them in my travels around eastern Ontario and here in Ottawa,
but they were too busy chewing on their leaf to stop and give me their forecast for this winter. 
And I don't know how to read the black/reddish brown bands to determine if we will have very cold
or mild winter. Maybe the Farmer's almanac "experts" discovered the real science behind all this
folklore on the woolly bears. 



> The “woolly bear” is actually the freeze-tolerant final instar caterpillar of the common tiger moth . They survive the freezing winter by producing “antifreeze” in the form of glycerol.


http://promega.wordpress.com/2011/09/29/woolly-bear-caterpillars/
Talk about evolution!..too bad humans never felt the need to develop their own antifreeze..although a good bottle of scotch will do just fine in an emergency during the blizzards or ice storms.:biggrin:



> I think the polar vortex has started in Minnesota (USA) already on Monday ... highways were blizzed out ... and I thought this phenomena is a Canadian thing.
> 
> No generators but got long johns, candles, and home-made heater (18" terra-cotta) ready.... :biggrin:


I experimented last winter with the terra cotta heaters and candles...was surprised how much heat comes off those.
Found a lots of cheap tea candles at Ikea from what I remember, and some alcohol ministoves to heat water for
instant coffee. Of course for you that can still drive to the local Timmies/BK, it's not such a hardship..eh? :biggrin:


----------



## brad

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Where is that much advertized Global Warming when we need it?


In Alaska at the moment: the temperature in Barrow yesterday was warmer than the temperature in Amarillo, Texas. Alaska has seen so many changes in climate that even Sarah Palin, when she was governor there, established a climate change task force and emergency committees to oversee the moving of coastal communities that were falling into the ocean due to increased erosion related to the loss of sea ice. Of course once she resigned as governor and joined the Tea Party she took up the party line that climate change was a hoax.


----------



## My Own Advisor

CPA Candidate said:


> I really hope that we have another brutal winter, it is great for natural gas prices.


Spoken like a true investor! I smiled when I read this! :biggrin:


----------



## HaroldCrump

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Where is that much advertized Global Warming when we need it? What a ripoff.


I wonder if you also believe that the Earth is flat, and that it is the center of the Solar System.
That's what this sounds like.


----------



## carverman

sags said:


> The landlord pays our heat (natural gas) so we couldn't add a gas fireplace, but the good news is we have an electric one for emergencies...
> 
> That should work out well....................
> 
> Maybe we should get a big arse candle...........and sit around it..........wonder if that would work.........hmmm.



Yes, an electric fireplace for emergencies if the hydro is interrupted is a good plan. :biggrin:

After the big ice storm of January '98 in Eastern Ontario/Ottawa and surrounding area, the power was off in my area for over 12 hrs...in other rural places it was off for a few weeks. Farmers didn't have power to milk cows, so they had to borrow or scrounge big diesel generators or PTO generators for their tractors. All the small gas generators were sold out.

I installed a gas fireplace in 2000 than can heat without electricity in my upstairs, but for the downstairs, I will have to heat with a double terra cotta pot and some tea candles to keep the water pipes from freezing, should the hydro be out for a prolonged period during another ice storm as the gas furnace won't run without electricity.
Best be prepared for an unforseen event such as another ice storm, even if you never have to use it. 

With the Eastern Pacific Oscillation affecting our weather patterns:


> One of many factors that contributed to the brutal winter in the U.S. last year was this warm NE Pacific Ocean temperatures allowing a monster high pressure system to dominate the Pacific and ridge way up into the Arctic. This kept the West Coast very warm and dry while the "Polar Vortex" shifted out of the North Pole into the Great Lakes.
> On 8 October this year the EPO area was showing Pacific Ocean temperatures much warmer than both average and last year thus the hype for another epic brutal winter.



Last year southern Ontario and Toronto got it...this year if it's a continuation of the Polar Vortex..it's anybody's guess who will be next.


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> ...
> Last year southern Ontario and Toronto got it...this year if it's a *continuation of the Polar Vortex*..it's anybody's guess *who will be next*.


 ... my advice is to send it over to Winnipeg since some Winnipegers in this thread want it badly ... or better yet brutally :biggrin:


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> Yes of course. I have seen a few of them in my travels around eastern Ontario and here in Ottawa,
> but they were too busy chewing on their leaf to stop and give me their forecast for this winter.
> And I don't know how to read the black/reddish brown bands to determine if we will have very cold
> or mild winter. Maybe the Farmer's almanac "experts" discovered the real science behind all this
> folklore on the woolly bears.
> 
> http://promega.wordpress.com/2011/09/29/woolly-bear-caterpillars/
> Talk about evolution!..too bad humans never felt the need to develop their own antifreeze..although a good bottle of scotch will do just fine in an emergency during the blizzards or ice storms.:biggrin:


 ... thanks for the link to these woolly "bears" caterpillars (so cute and appropriate a name). I think the amount or # of black and brown stripes to determine the severity of a winter would makes sense , considering that they self-produce anti-freeze to survive and if the stripe changes were due to this chemical change on their body. Just fascinating. I wonder if these caterpillars have predators and if so, what happens to the predator if enough of the fuzzy creatures get consumed? 

Ah, a good bottle of scotch (or whatever is your favourite drink) is just what's needed in a snow-in and power-out ... no need to worry about time and no need for a double at TH ... just sit back and enjoy! The storm will soon blow-over. each:


----------



## Nemo2

So...with these woolly bears....does one read them from left to right or right to left....or does it depend on which direction they're heading?


----------



## RBull

Jon_Snow said:


> I'll be thinking about all of you while I'm kickin' back on the beach in Baja. :biggrin:
> 
> Sorry, couldn't resist.


You won't be thinking of me my friend. I'll be in the Caribbean and then south Texas. 

Don't you have to do some house repairs in Baja?


----------



## Jon_Snow

RBull said:


> You won't be thinking of me my friend. I'll be in the Caribbean and then south Texas.
> 
> Don't you have to do some house repairs in Baja?


Our place came out of it remarkably unscathed, apart from some damage to a coconut tree on our front porch.


----------



## Eder

brad said:


> In Alaska at the moment: the temperature in Barrow yesterday was warmer than the temperature in Amarillo, Texas.


I drove from Albuquerque to Amarillo today....wind & snow, about -7C so it doesn't take much to be warmer than here lol.


----------



## off.by.10

carverman said:


> I experimented last winter with the terra cotta heaters and candles...was surprised how much heat comes off those.


If you're going to burn anything for any significant length of time, get yourself a CO detector as well. I suspect it isn't difficult to get poor combustion when you start rigging your own devices and it's a cheap backup.

I got myself a portable propane heater last winter. I figured I always have the fuel around (20lb tanks for the grill) and it can also be useful if I need to work in the shed in cooler months. I hope to never really need it of course.


----------



## Itchy54

Well, the cold can be a thing of beauty. I had to drive down to the lower mainland this morning, over the Coquihalla, and it was spectacular! The water that pleasantly cascades over the rock faces in the summer was frozen into gorgeous ice sculptures along the highway, glittering in the sunshine.

I, like Jon Snow, am living in my own little "don't care about the cold" state of mine with our month long Mexican holiday just two weeks away. Trust me, that is the only time i find frozen water a thing of beauty! In one month and two weeks i will be cursing the never ending winter......


----------



## Pluto

HaroldCrump said:


> I wonder if you also believe that the Earth is flat, and that it is the center of the Solar System.
> That's what this sounds like.


Apparently there hasn't been any global warming for about 18 years. The UN panel reportedly claimed that is due to unknown natural factors. Previously they talked as if all factors were known. If they could figure out what the unknown factors are I'd give more credence to their model.


----------



## carverman

Beaver101 said:


> ... I think the amount or # of black and brown stripes to determine the severity of a winter would makes sense , considering that they self-produce anti-freeze to survive and if the stripe changes were due to this chemical change on their body. Just fascinating. *I wonder if these caterpillars have predators and if so, what happens to the predator if enough of the fuzzy creatures get consumed*?


Most caterpillars have some kind of predator. It's nature's way..but every insect has some kind of defence against predators
and the woolly bear is no different than any other species..it has to adapt to survive. 

So next spring or summer when you happen to see one in your locale...remember to leave them be, as the adult
isabella tiger moth is relatively harmless. 

*Woolly bear "101".*..all you didn't know...and probably didn't want to know about these prognosticators of severe winters.:biggrin:



> Folklore of the eastern United States and Canada holds that the relative amounts of brown and black on the skin of a Woolly Bear caterpillar (*commonly abundant in the fall*) *are an indication of the severity of the coming winter*.





> It is believed that if a Woolly Bear caterpillar's *brown stripe is thick, the winter weather will be mild* and
> *if the brown stripe is narrow, the winter will be severe*. In reality, hatchlings from the same clutch of eggs can display considerable variation in their color distribution, and the brown band tends to grow with age; if there is any truth to the tale, it is highly speculative.[5]


So now we know the Farmer's Almanac secret, who claim their forecasts are 80% correct over the years they have published.
Woolly bears and maybe the size of the squirrels nuts (collections for the winter) probably have to a lot to do with it..
its only the meterologists that have come up with more scientific mumbo-jumbo such as the EPO,NAO etc...to confuse us
and guarantee that they have jobs after coming out of meteorology school...:biggrin:



> There have been peer-reviewed studies that have shown a correlation between above normal snow cover in northern Asia (especially Siberia) and blocking high pressure across the high latitudes defined by a – NAO (North America Oscillation) and – AO (Arctic Oscillation).
> 
> *When both those indices are in the negative phase, high latitude blocks are usually present resulting in meridional jet stream flow bringing the “polar vortex” southward into the middle latitudes.*
> 
> This happened at times last season, although the cold breaks were more associated with the negative EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) and not a negative AO or NAO. While blocking can often be bad for precipitation in California, it isn’t always so, as there was heavy snow in 2010-11 associated with a persistent negative AO.
> 
> *Bottom line, it is all about where the block forms and how the resulting jet stream is affected and altered.*



I think the woolly bears have more experience forecasting the winter...after all they have been around for hundreds of years. And instead of naming the current winter weather phenomena "POLAR VORTEX"..enough to scare the'
beejeebers out everyone that is not a meterologist..why not rename the current phenomena.. Just a "cold Woolly
Bear" or "Warm Woolly Bear" winter...it would make us feel a lot "warmer" snuggled in the necessary long
johns to survive the Canadian Winter.....Here's a toast to the Woolly Bear! 



> The hairs are pretty good defense against large predators like birds, swallowing a woolly bear would be a lot like choking down a bottle brush. I gather that the major predators of all types of woolly caterpillars are actually things like parasitic wasps and flies, which is a pretty gruesome way to die. These parasites are mainly what keeps woolly bears from turning into some all-devouring plague upon the land.



*Woolly Bear ..heal thyself.* 


> It turns out that the woolly bears do have some ability to counteract the parasites; they are the
> 
> 
> 
> first insects that have been shown to use medicines. When they are infected with parasites, they will intentionally seek out toxic, alkaloid-laden plants to eat, which will help to knock off the parasites. They generally only eat small amounts of these plants when they are not infected
> 
> 
> 
> . This is very unusual, up until this was discovered it was thought that only animals capable of some basic level of reasoning, like primates, were capable of seeking out medications when they were sick.
Click to expand...

 *more on the woolly bear* (we need to learn something new every day)

http://somethingscrawlinginmyhair.com/2009/10/10/banded-wooly-bear/


----------



## brad

Pluto said:


> Apparently there hasn't been any global warming for about 18 years. The UN panel reportedly claimed that is due to unknown natural factors. Previously they talked as if all factors were known. If they could figure out what the unknown factors are I'd give more credence to their model.


Oh, they figured it out earlier this year; there've been a bunch of papers identifying the likely causes for the slowdown in warming. It's not really accurate to say there hasn't been any global warming in 18 years. The last month in which the global average temperature was lower than the 20th century average was February 1985, and 2013 tied with 2003 as the fourth warmest year globally since records began in 1880. 

Here's how the trend looked at the end of last year. Based on what's happened so far this year, I think you'll see the trend move upward again in 2014:


----------



## Beaver101

Wow, thanks for the Woolly Bears 101 research and write up! 

I think it's more than just folklore that these Woollies are 'prognosticators' of severe winters (or not). At least they would be a heck alot cheaper than meteorologists/climatologists to use! As mentioned by another poster, where is global warming when you need it? 

So yes, *a toast to the warm Woolly Bear prediction for this winter!* No more PV! 



> *Woolly Bear ..heal thyself.*
> 
> It turns out that the woolly bears do have some ability to counteract the parasites; they are the
> *first insects that have been shown to use medicines*. When they are infected with parasites, they will intentionally* seek out toxic, alkaloid-laden plants to eat*, which will help to knock off the parasites. They generally only eat small amounts of these plants when they are not infected . This is very unusual, up until this was discovered it was thought that only animals capable of some basic level of reasoning, *like primates, were capable of seeking out medications when they were sick*.


 ... very very interesting ... such a small fuzzy creature can use medicine but would be bad food(going down like a bottle brush ...LOL!) for predators. I certainly learned something new today. 

Btw, Nemo2 is still trying to figure if you read from the left or the right of a Woolly.... :biggrin: LOL!


----------



## carverman

Snowmageddon has paralysed Buffalo. Lets hope it does not shift up towards Toronto, as parts of Muskoka have taken on an unusual amount of snow already and November still has a week to go. 

12 deaths so far, some because of heart attacks shovelling, and lots of collapsed roofs there. Now with the thaw and
heavy rain, they are predicting flooding everywhere there. That will add to the misery of Buffalo residents. 165 cm ..that's 5 feet of snow and more to come. 

With the great freezing rain storm that hit Toronto last December...the remaining part of this winter is not looking to be very promising for some of us, and we still have about 4 months to go before this one is over.

Is Toronto ready for another bout of severe winter weather?


----------



## Nemo2

carverman said:


> .the remaining part of this winter is not looking to be very promising for some of us, and we still have about 4 months to go before this one is over.


Winter doesn't even _start_ until a month from today. :biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

carverman said:


> 1. they are predicting flooding everywhere there.
> 2. Is Toronto ready for another bout of severe winter weather?


*1.* And what a flood that would be given the snow accumulation.

*2.* We seem to be ready. But you're the one with the more semi-continental climate, no?

“We’re prepared this year for whatever happens,” Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong, chair of the public works committee, told the city’s annual winter preparedness news conference Thursday.
After one of the harshest winters in recent memory, the city is confident its fleet of 600 road plows, 300 sidewalk plows and 200 salt trucks will keep the roads and sidewalks safe for the travelling public."


----------



## sags

I am too old to shovel snow.............at least that's the story I use.......

We used to live directly across from a big elementary school and I sure don't miss the plows filling in the end of the driveway......every time I cleaned it out. Two or three times a day when it was snowing, to maintain access to the school. The road filled with school buses and parents parked all over the place.......

Sometimes...........there are advantages to renting a little townhouse and watching the "crew" clearing the snow.

I don't think there can be any doubt that we are getting extremes in weather at both ends of the spectrum.

The sea is rising.........forcing some cities into building flood protection, some places have become drought stricken, and we have the Polar Vortex plunging down further south than it used to.

The only question is how much human activity has caused this.........and how much is simply a natural cycle.


----------



## carverman

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* And what a flood that would be given the snow accumulation.
> 
> *2.* We seem to be ready. But you're the one with the more semi-continental climate, no?
> 
> “We’re prepared this year for whatever happens,” Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong, chair of the public works committee, told the city’s annual winter preparedness news conference Thursday.
> After one of the harshest winters in recent memory, the city is confident its fleet of 600 road plows, 300 sidewalk plows and 200 salt trucks will keep the roads and sidewalks safe for the travelling public."


I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Ottawa will have a normal winter this time.

However, Toronto is almost in gridlock during rush hour at the best of times..if there is a snowstorm at the same time all the plows and salters in the GTA are not going to be very effective. 

Where were the plows the other day at rush hour, when the snow storm hit Toronto? Traffic was at a standstill on the QEW/Gardner and some of the streets.

There was this long hill somewhere..forget where and the cars were spinning their wheels trying to get up the hill.



> About five centimetres of snow fell in the GTA Wednesday. Del Duca said the delay in snow clearing combined with traffic made the situation worse. I


http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/201...ing_into_reports_of_streetclearing_delay.html


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Ottawa will have a normal winter this time.
> 
> However, Toronto is almost in gridlock during rush hour at the best of times..if there is a snowstorm at the same time all the plows and salters in the GTA are not going to be very effective.
> 
> Where were the plows the other day at rush hour, when the snow storm hit Toronto? Traffic was at a standstill on the QEW/Gardner and some of the streets.
> 
> There was this long hill somewhere..forget where and the cars were spinning their wheels trying to get up the hill.


 ... those guys spinning wheelies trying to get up the hill probably hasn't changed to snow /all season tires ...

and now reporting *** live *** from Toronto (downtown) on Friday (TGIF!) at noon 12:26 pm, there is barely a sheet of snow on the ground/sidewalk (only a few flecks on rooftops) but it's cold at -7c (excluding windchill) and sunny!  Let's keep it this way for the rest of the winter ... or til May 2015! Fingers crossed too! 

However (always), should old man winter decides to get nasty and blast us with snow - please send the blizzard to Winnipeg, Winnerpeg, Winnerpeg! :biggrin:


----------



## Nemo2

carverman said:


> There was this long hill somewhere..forget where and the cars were spinning their wheels trying to get up the hill.


Sounds like Hogg's Hollow......circa 1970 I drove up there (virtually) sideways in heavy snow.


----------



## Nemo2

sags said:


> The sea is rising.........forcing some cities into building flood protection, some places have become drought stricken, and we have the Polar Vortex plunging down further south than it used to.
> 
> The only question is how much human activity has caused this.........and how much is simply a natural cycle.


Interesting article from last year:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybe...-way-over-their-heads-on-rising-ocean-claims/


----------



## Toronto.gal

Nemo2 said:


> Sounds like Hogg's Hollow......circa 1970 I drove up there (virtually) sideways in heavy snow.


When conditions are icy, no car/bus/truck can handle that steep hill, not up and not down either. Some years ago, deciding to take the bus to the York Mills subway station one bad winter day, did me no good; we ended up having to get off the bus and walk, or rather skate to the station.


----------



## Nemo2

Toronto.gal said:


> When conditions are icy, no car/bus/truck can handle that steep hill, not up and not down either. Some years ago, deciding to take the bus to the York Mills subway station one bad winter day, did me no good; we ended up having to get off the bus and walk, or rather skate to the station.


I hear ya......I went up using momentum & prayer (the latter, for an agnostic/atheist, was a stretch)......in a rear wheel drive vehicle........luckily there was little/no traffic and it was 'merely' snowing heavily.


----------



## carverman

Plus 20 degree temperatures for a few hours, rain, howling winds all night. Thousands without power in Southern and Eastern Ontario. 

That was SOME wind storm last night...as Gord Lightfoot's song " Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald lyrics go.. 
'twas the witch of November come stealin'. Hopefully nobody was crazy enough to be in a boat on the great lakes.



> The Witch of November, or November Witch, refers to the strong winds that frequently blow across the Great Lakes in autumn. The "witches" are caused by intense low atmospheric pressure over the Great Lakes pulling cold Canadian/Arctic air from the north or northwest and warm Gulf air from the south. When these cold and warm air masses collide, they can result in hurricane force winds that stir up large waves on the Lakes.


True to her name, November can hold many surprises....so far..5 feet of snow in Buffalo, torrential rains (sometimes) and high winds blowing down trees and power lines. Thankfully this month is almost over. 

Now back to the Polar Vortex and what's in store for December. Let's hope it's not a repeat of last December. (fingers crossed/knock on wood)


----------



## sags

Speaking of the Great Lakes...........We took a trip down to Port Stanley on Lake Erie last weekend, to have a a burger and fries at Mackies on the beach.

The wind was howling that day..........and I have never seen Lake Erie looking so angry before.

Huge waves crashing all over.............including out in deeper water. Whitecaps and foam. The whole lake was churning.

I imagine the undertow was really strong and it was too dangerous to go out on the breakwater........but some idiot was still out there with waves crashing all around her.

I wouldn't have wanted to be out in it...............but it is kind of awesome to see the power of the waves.

Lake Superior............I put a foot in it one August when we were driving out west...........The water is so cold it hurts...............

_"Does any one know where the love of God goes...........When the waves turn the minutes to hours?"_

I was caught out on Lake Erie one time............when it wasn't anywhere near as bad as it was last week. My biuddy had a 16 foot bass boat (low in water) and we were returning from Potahawk Point. You have to go "out" into the lake first to avoid a sandbar and then come back in. I was so scared I tied myself to the console and hung for dear life as the waves crashed over the boat. It was the first and last time I would go out that far in a small boat. The waves did turn the minutes to hours.


----------



## Toronto.gal

carverman said:


> Now back to the Polar Vortex and what's in store for December. *Let's hope it's not a repeat of last December.* (fingers crossed/knock on wood)


Might be worse even if what our 'Buffalonian' neighbours just 160 km away got last week was any indication of what's to come; and now getting 'a toxic brew of flooding as 7 feet of snow start to melt.'

It was a 'wild' Monday indeed. That was quite the wind-storm, up to 100 km/h last evening.


----------



## carverman

Just watched the Weather Network WINTER OUTLOOK 2014/2015.
Meteorologists there think it will be a repeat of last winter...with the new buzzword... "CORE OF DOOM'
hanging over us with colder than normal days followed by "Wintermission", where the temperature goes up above freezing for a couple days then followed by POLAR VORTEX 2...

"comforting words" from the weather network to say the least.


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> Plus 20 degree temperatures for a few hours, rain, howling winds all night. Thousands without power in Southern and Eastern Ontario.
> 
> That was SOME wind storm last night...as Gord Lightfoot's song " Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald lyrics go..
> 'twas the witch of November come stealin'. Hopefully nobody was crazy enough to be in a boat on the great lakes.
> 
> True to her name, November can hold many surprises....so far..5 feet of snow in Buffalo, torrential rains (sometimes) and high winds blowing down trees and power lines. Thankfully this month is almost over.
> 
> Now back to the Polar Vortex and what's in store for December. Let's hope it's not a repeat of last December. (fingers crossed/knock on wood)


 .. so there is a song for witches that hang around after Halloween ... :biggrin: 

Okay, Ontarians are a generous bunch ... so we'll award the Polar Vortex to Manitobans this winter. :anonymous: (Toes crossed too!)


----------



## sags

Manitoba can have it............and the wind that is blowing hard and cold again today..............

Thank goodness it was mild with all the rain and wind.................or we would be digging out of a blizzard right now.


----------



## carverman

sags said:


> Speaking of the Great Lakes...........We took a trip down to Port Stanley on Lake Erie last weekend, to have a a burger and fries at Mackies on the beach.
> 
> The wind was howling that day..........and I have never seen Lake Erie looking so angry before.
> 
> Huge waves crashing all over.............including out in deeper water. Whitecaps and foam. The whole lake was churning.
> 
> I imagine the undertow was really strong and it was too dangerous to go out on the breakwater........but some idiot was still out there with waves crashing all around her.
> 
> I wouldn't have wanted to be out in it...............but it is kind of awesome to see the power of the waves.
> 
> Lake Superior............I put a foot in it one August when we were driving out west...........The water is so cold it hurts...............
> 
> _"Does any one know where the love of God goes...........When the waves turn the minutes to hours?"_
> 
> I was caught out on Lake Erie one time............when it wasn't anywhere near as bad as it was last week. My biuddy had a 16 foot bass boat (low in water) and we were returning from Potahawk Point. You have to go "out" into the lake first to avoid a sandbar and then come back in.* I was so scared I tied myself to the console and hung for dear life as the waves crashed over the boat. It was the first and last time I would go out that far in a small boat. The waves did turn the minutes to hours.*


You were very lucky indeed that a rogue wave, which would be quite a feat to see one on Lake Erie, didn't swamp your boat!
Apparently they did dive down (eventually) to see what happened to the Edmund Fitzgerald. Loaded down with iron ore, she broke apart..possibly due to a rogue wave on Superior on that fateful night.



> The Fitzgerald sank at the eastern edge of the area of high wind where the long fetch, or distance that wind blows over water, produced significant waves averaging over 23 feet (7.0 m) by 7:00 p.m. and over *25 feet (7.6 m) at 8:00 p.m*. The simulation also showed one in 100 waves reaching 36 feet (11 m) and one out of every 1,000 reaching 46 feet (14 m). Since the ship was heading east-southeastward, the waves likely caused the Fitzgerald to roll heavily.[101]


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

HaroldCrump said:


> I wonder if you also believe that the Earth is flat, and that it is the center of the Solar System.
> That's what this sounds like.


I totally believe in Global Warming in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. I just want to know when is it coming to my area? The last few winters have been brutal and this one is starting way early.


----------



## carverman

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I totally believe in Global Warming in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. I just want to know when is it coming to my area? The last few winters have been brutal and this one is starting way early.


yes it appears to be real as more and more carbon dioxide is spewed out from all the carbon fuels used up causing a greenhouse effect in this century.



> Signs that the Earth is warming are recorded all over the globe. The easiest way to see increasing temperatures is through the thermometer records kept over the past century and a half. Around the world, the *Earth's average temperature has risen more than 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) over the last century*, and about twice that in parts of the Arctic.


Ok, while the global warming effect in the last century as recorded may only be about 1 degree warmer, the fact remains that until there is a drastic change in the sun, which is still good for another 4.5 billion years, until it turns into a red giant burning the earth to a crisp, the climate change has to be more related to greenhouse gases being trapped in our atmosphere.

Its the ocean currents that moderate our winters here in NA. Here in the eastern part of Canada, we seem to have the effects of the Atlantic storms coming up the US seaboard as well, to influence our winters.

I think that in our lifetimes, other than ocean current changes, and the gradual effect of greenhouse gasses, the winters will be either severe or ...not so severe...so no chance of planting those palm trees in your back yard, even after "White Christmas" is over , and we just want to head somewhere south where it's warm. 

Besides..if the winters got warm enough that snow would not stay on the ground..think of all the industries that depend on snow present in the winter to survive...all those ski and snowmobile manufacturers and resorts would go out of business, not to mention oceans rising from all the melting ice in the Arctic..which would boost sales in
all kinds of boats. 

However..the thought of lying on a chaise lounge in the middle of January.... with a beer and suntan lotion is very tempting...bring on global warming!


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> yes it appears to be real as more and more carbon dioxide is spewed out from all the carbon fuels used up causing a greenhouse effect in this century.
> 
> ...
> 
> However..the thought of lying on a chaise lounge in the middle of January.... with a beer and *suntan lotion is very tempting...bring on global warming!*


 ... no thanks to global warming and all that suntan use ... I don't mind a cold beer anytime of the year but wouldn't care to be tanned to crisp (or unless we can start planting coconut palms in our backyard.) :biggrin: Actually, I would prefer not to cold, not too warm weather ... just the right temperature like that of spring .. all year round! Okay, I can wake up and stop dreaming.


----------



## sags

I sat there watching as the doctor lifted the needle full of cortizone up and examined it. "Are you sure you want to do this", he asked ?

"Why..........is it going to hurt", I asked.

"Oh yea", he said........."I have to stick this deep under your shoulder blade into the muscle area......It is going to hurt a lot".

"You could", he said......."Forget about this shot and think about moving to Arizona".

"Okay", I said........."let's forget about the shot and I will think about moving to Arizona"................and I fled the area.

Bring on the heat.............much better than the cold.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I totally believe in Global Warming in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. I just want to know when is it coming to my area? The last few winters have been brutal and this one is starting way early.


Global warming is a subset of overall climate change.
Just because last winter (or even last 2 winters) felt colder than usual does not mean there is no climate change.

_*Climate Change Might Just Be Driving the Historic Cold Snap*_


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

How about the last 63 F****ing winters? I have lived in Canada all my life and I'm still waiting for that much advertised Global Warming to come to my place. I would settle for 1 degree warmer if that's all I can get but why can't I have some of the real hot temps they keep talking about? If the polar ice caps are melting why can't my driveway? What a ripoff.


----------



## nathan79

Rusty O'Toole said:


> How about the last 63 F****ing winters? I have lived in Canada all my life and I'm still waiting for that much advertised Global Warming to come to my place. I would settle for 1 degree warmer if that's all I can get but why can't I have some of the real hot temps they keep talking about? If the polar ice caps are melting why can't my driveway? What a ripoff.


I bet if you analysed data for your location you'd find that there has been an overall warming trend over the last 63 years. It just so happens that eastern North America has seen a string of harsh winters over the last few years, so the average person may have forgotten that there were many mild winters as recently as the 90's and early 2000's.

I have run the numbers for my location and we've seen a rough warming of 1C in the winter months and a near 40% decrease in 30-year average snowfall since the 1970's. You may or may not see similar results, but the fact is that many areas have warmed significantly.


----------



## carverman

nathan79 said:


> I bet if you analysed data for your location you'd find that there has been an overall warming trend over the last 63 years. It just so happens that eastern North America has seen a string of harsh winters over the last few years, so the average person may have forgotten that there were many mild winters as recently as the 90's and early 2000's.
> 
> I have run the numbers for my location and we've seen a rough warming of 1C in the winter months and a near 40% decrease in 30-year average snowfall since the 1970's. You may or may not see similar results, but the fact is that many areas have warmed significantly.


Maybe where you are. Predominantly the BC coast on the west side of the Rockies is influenced by the warmer waters of the Pacific currents.

Not so for the rest of Canada...that cold arctic blast (now renamed the POLAR VORTEX) comes howling down from the far reaches of Northern Canada, freezes over the lakes and dumps lots of snow on us. We WANT some of that global warming to come our way!

Snowmaggedon Winter has arrived in parts of eastern Canada. Big "NorEastr" has dumped a lot of snow in the US
east coast and 30-40cm of snow in parts of New Brunswick leaving 38,000 without power.
Torrential rains in NS and not sure what's going on in NFLD, lots of snow, I'm sure.
Up to 75cm (30 inches) of snow expected in parts of Alberta.

So far we have dodged the bullet here in eastern and southern Ontario..but for how long?


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> Maybe where you are. Predominantly the BC coast on the west side of the Rockies is influenced by the warmer waters of the Pacific currents.
> 
> ...
> 
> Snowmaggedon Winter has arrived in parts of eastern Canada. Big "NorEastr" has dumped a lot of snow in the US
> east coast and 30-40cm of snow in parts of New Brunswick leaving 38,000 without power.
> Torrential rains in NS and not sure what's going on in NFLD, lots of snow, I'm sure.
> Up to 75cm (30 inches) of snow expected in parts of Alberta.
> 
> So far we have dodged the bullet here in eastern and southern Ontario..*but for how long*?


 ... as long as we have to keep our fingers and toes crossed. :biggrin: Hey, whatever works.


----------



## carverman

Just hear on CBC news, that climatologists (I think that is what they call themselves), are issuing a dire warning that if the world doesn't stop the increasing greenhouse gasses somehow, the world temperatures could rise as much as 4.5 degrees by 2090. 

Some serious consequences to the population at that time.

2090:


> The human population peaks at 10 billion people during the midpoint of the century, and begins to decline shortly thereafter. In 2090 the population stands and at 7 and a half billion people


Famine/disease and wars, I would think.


----------



## Nemo2

carverman said:


> Famine/disease and wars, I would think.


So...business as usual, eh?


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

I analyzed the data by sticking my head out the window and nearly froze to death. In all my life I have NEVER seen such cold and snow in the middle of November, as what we got this year. Last year winter set in early and there wasn't a break in the freezing weather until spring which came a little late. About 3 or 4 years ago we set records for snow in Ontario and Quebec.

In the 1990s there were 3 or 4 mild winters in a row but since then we have had nothing but old fashioned winters and cool damp summers.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Who ever heard of a nor'easter in November? They are supposed to happen in the coldest months, January or February. We are having some strange weather but it sure isn't warming.


----------



## carverman

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Who ever heard of a nor'easter in November? They are supposed to happen in the coldest months, January or February. We are having some strange weather but it sure isn't warming.


Strange for sure, and its up and down too. Temps are going up again starting Sunday...if this cycle continues into December,
what is the probability of having another repeat of what we had last December with that freezing ice storm in Toronto and southern Ontario last December?

We managed to dodge the bullet last December in Eastern Ontario... but I should have collected some
4 leaf clovers...a horsehoe, and maybe a "lucky rabbits foot"...which they don't seem to sell anymore..as it wasn't so lucky for the poor rabbits.

Today is Black Friday madness practically everywhere..avid bargain hunters line up at 4am to crash through the doors of the big box stores at 6am..pushing, trampling, shouting, punching...grabbing..for the big screen and electronics on big discounts.
You would think that with this Polar Vortex starting to become more consistent with our winters,,they would be rushing to snap up the Long Johns as well to watch those big screens.

Apparently a clothing store in San Francisco, offered free underwear to the first 100? customers that showed up at 6am in their underwear...something you would never see in Canada with the temperatures we are now experiencing...


----------



## sags

Yea, reminds me that I need some long johns. They are well worth the money in Canada.

I dropped the daughter in law at Toys R US this morning at 6:30 for work. There was already a line-up outside of 30 or so people............in this cold, damp weather.

They must already have their long johns...............


----------



## carverman

Good new from Environment Canada's supercomputer....:biggrin:



> *Environment Canada is expecting the next three months to be average or warmer than normal in almost the entire country*, *thanks in part to El Nino, a senior climatologist says.*
> "The good news for all Canadians is that there's no area of significant population where we're showing colder than normal,





> *Environment Canada's supercomputer in Montreal has run the numbers,* and Phillips said that except for a small area around Lake Superior and part of Nunavut, the winter will be warm in contrast to last year's — one of the longest and coldest on record.
> Phillips said the forecast model for December, January and February shows warmer than normal temperatures from Vancouver Island almost to Lake Superior, including in Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Much of Atlantic Canada is also expected to be warmer than normal.





> Ontario and Quebec are expected to have a more typical winter than last year — *less consistent snow and cold, more abrupt weather changes from day to day. *





> The main reason for the warmer forecast is El Nino, the warming of Pacific sea-surface temperatures that occurs every four to 12 years.


We'll just have to see if we can believe what the weatherman's super computer tells us..hopefully it's not running a MS OS...and the old comp tech adage .."garbage in = garbage out". :biggrin:


----------



## Beaver101

^ LOL! I think the Woolly Bears do a better job on than that "super-computer" with the A.I.. :wink:


----------



## carverman

Beaver101 said:


> ^ LOL! I think the Woolly Bears do a better job on than that "super-computer" with the A.I.. :wink:


We seem to be into this temperature roller coaster right now...below normal for a day or two, above normal for a day or two.
So far no significant snow...that's good.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Let's keep it this way ... few flurries until March break ... fingers/toes still crossed. :biggrin:


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Beaver101 said:


> ^ LOL! I think the Woolly Bears do a better job on than that "super-computer" with the A.I.. :wink:


Artificial Intelligence won't help if you haven't got the real thing.


----------



## Beaver101

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Artificial Intelligence won't help if you haven't got the real thing.


 ... true


----------



## Beaver101

*$190-million ice storm aid unclaimed by Ontario municipalities

It’s been almost a year since last December’s crippling ice storm but not a penny of $190 million of emergency funding has flowed* ...http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/12/05/190million_ice_storm_aid_unclaimed_by_ontario_municipalities.html ... this is surprising. 

Does this mean municipalities are putting themselves in unnecessary debt in the meantime? The aid money should have been provided in emergencies such as this ... imagine if another storm hit the province or even worst an earthquake (however remote)...


----------



## carverman

Beaver101 said:


> *
> Does this mean municipalities are putting themselves in unnecessary debt in the meantime? The aid money should have been provided in emergencies such as this ... imagine if another storm hit the province or even worst an earthquake (however remote)... *


*

It seems it's more complicated to apply for this disaster relief than what municipalities are prepared for. Lots of forms,
red tape etc. 




...while the assistance was welcome, the process to tap into it is considered onerous, to the point where her own municipality Northumberland County is one the verge of abandoning its $38,000 claim.

Click to expand...

However, it looks like Toronto may still get it. 



A city of Toronto spokeswoman said the city’s application for assistance will be in by the deadline.

Click to expand...

*


----------



## Beaver101

^ Operative word is "may" for TO ... but what happens for smaller municipalities in the meantime? Do they have sufficient funds to put things back in order without unnecessary borrowing if there is a deficit (and which city/municipality is in a surplus these days)?


----------



## carverman

The temperature roller coaster continues in December. 

Freezing rain started last night...today branches are coated with ice, but so far the amount of freezing rain 
here...1-2mm is not enough to cause damage to trees and power line, but most school buses are cancelled.

Still mild for one more day, then back into the freezer for 5 days, then warming up again for Christmas eve.
These temperature swing oscillations seem to be predominant at the beginning of this winter. 

Hopefully it won't be a repeat of last years ice storm in southern Ontario/GTA ,some of it spreading to Eastern Ontario.

These grey days with no sun are depressing. 
Does anyone have a magic wand out there to "fast forward" this winter?


----------



## carverman

Ah! good to see the Polar Vortex back again thread...and just in time too.
R-R-R-cranking..cranking....Ok, I'll "jump start" this thread back to life...lets face it CMF..the weather is one thing that pretty
much MOST of us can agree on. 

This current cold snap is just another rude awakening that nothing is really predictable in our Canadian winters. 

Found this 'Deep Freeze survival article'
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/deep-freeze-tips-surviving-extreme-030458893.html


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> Ah! good to see the Polar Vortex back again thread...and just in time too.
> R-R-R-cranking..cranking....Ok, I'll "jump start" this thread back to life...lets face it CMF..the weather is one thing that pretty
> much MOST of us can agree on.
> 
> This current cold snap is just another rude awakening that nothing is really predictable in our Canadian winters.
> 
> Found this 'Deep Freeze survival article'
> https://ca.news.yahoo.com/deep-freeze-tips-surviving-extreme-030458893.html


 ... of course, since you started this thread. And it is going to stay here permanently just as with our cold Canadian winters. :biggrin:

Good pointers in that article. Essentially by all means, stay indoors to keep warm ... I wonder if schools will be open tomorrow when the deep freeze starts (forecast for tomorrow's afternoon in TO is -27c - not including wind chill, brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr)?


----------



## steve41

Here, out in God's country, our normal Equatorial Vortex is back. 12 degrees C.


----------



## carverman

It's back again..very nasty cold weather throughout most of Canada. 

In Toronto and other cities, it is taking it's toll on the homeless that have to endure the windchill. 
Already it has claimed one victim in Toronto...a homeless man frozen to death in a bus shelter.

Global warming..it's a myth. We could use some of that global warming.


----------



## nathan79

carverman said:


> It's back again..very nasty cold weather throughout most of Canada.


It's about time. Toronto had a very mild December... about 2C above average. Quite a few cities in BC had their 3rd or 4th warmest December on record...

Snowfall is way below average out here... the ski resorts on the coast are suffering. Down near sea level (Fraser Valley area) I've measured just 3 cm so far this winter when we should be close to 28 cm by this time (1981-2010 normals).


----------



## carverman

Polar vortex is back again in Eastern Ontario -25C to -28C temps and windchill to -37C. Global warming where is it?



> This first week of January might be giving you a strong feeling of deja vu. No, not just because you’re back at the gym as part of your New Year’s resolution or have sworn off champagne. Icy temperatures have descended once again on the Midwest and East Coast, almost exactly a year after the first popular mention of the weather pattern that spawned a thousand tweets, the polar vortex.


meanwhile as we bundle up and throw another log on the fire..
...somewhere in this world, such as Australia..it's a unusually hot summer..a scorcher! 



> And Down Under in Australia, it’s sweltering, where some of the worst bushfires in 30 years have scorched large parts of the state of South Australia. In Adelaide, the state’s capital, daytime highs have been running 15°F above average since the start of the New Year.


Anybody want to trade right now?


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> ...
> 
> Anybody want to trade right now?


 ... you don't have to search as far as down-under .. sounds like nathan79 wants to trade in post #73:



> Snowfall is way below average out here... the ski resorts on the coast are suffering. Down near sea level (Fraser Valley area) I've measured just 3 cm so ...


 :cold:


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> It's back again..very nasty cold weather throughout most of Canada.
> 
> * In Toronto and other cities, it is taking it's toll on the homeless that have to endure the windchill.
> Already it has claimed one victim in Toronto...a homeless man frozen to death in a bus shelter.*
> 
> Global warming..it's a myth. We could use some of that global warming.


 ... unfortunately 2 lives needlessly lost ... some heads should roll at cityhall (TO's) given this cold snap was forecasted a week ahead of time.

*How many Torontonians does it take to declare an extreme cold weather alert?: Keenan
If people freezing to death on the streets isn’t cold enough to trigger an alert designed to save people from freezing to death on the streets, what’s the point?*

How many Torontonians does it take to declare an extreme cold weather alert?: Keenan


----------



## kcowan

My sympathy to all you cold people :biggrin:


----------



## carverman

Beaver101 said:


> ..
> How many Torontonians does it take to declare an extreme cold weather alert?: Keenan[/URL]


web page is not available anymore..so obviously something was said that city hall didn't like.

How many Torontonians?

Hmm..certainly not the new mayor, he's too busy with ?. Certainly not the old mayor, he's too busy looking after his health.
Certainly not the premier..she's too busy with her schedule. What about the ordinary person on the street? They are too busy with their everyday lives....

That leaves..no one..nobody cares..homeless don't pay taxes, they don't buy anything, they don't vote, they just hang around the streets begging. 

There is currently a TV commercial that did a planned experiment.

They put a dog on the sidewalk on a cold day..people stopped and made a fuss over the dog and even gave it something to eat...then the dog was led away, and replaced by a homeless guy holding a placard looking for donations.....
people just side stepped him....no one really cares that much about the homeless.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Here's part of the article and the link (again):

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2015/01/06/how_many_torontonians_does_it_take_to_declare_an_extreme_cold_weather_alert_keenan.html



> We’ve been suffering under extreme cold weather this week in Toronto. It feels a lot like the “Polar Vortex” we came to know and fear last year, although I’m informed it’s an “Arctic Mass” this time instead. Whatever it is, it’s extreme. And it’s cold. And it’s weather.
> 
> If you don’t believe that it is extremely cold, I invite you to step outside to read the rest of this column while exposed to the weather, and alert me to your conclusions when you’re done.
> 
> I extend that invitation especially to the staff in the city of Toronto’s office of Public Health, whose job it is to declare an Extreme Cold Weather Alert. When they do officially declare what everyone with access to the outdoors can feel, additional “warming stations” are opened to shelter the homeless and vulnerable, outreach workers are sent out to get people sleeping on the streets indoors and emergency homeless shelters relax their entrance requirements.
> 
> Plus, transportation money is provided to those needing access to open shelter beds. Basically a whole lot of life-saving resources are made available to people who might otherwise sleep on the street.
> 
> Public Health did not declare an extreme cold weather alert Sunday night, when the City of Hamilton did. A homeless man died sleeping in the back of a truck in a shipping yard in Toronto’s west end.
> 
> Public Health did not declare an extreme cold weather alert Monday night. A man died after he was found lying in a transit shelter at Yonge and Dundas, suffering hypothermia in only a t-shirt and jeans. ...


 ... If they missed (forgot :rolleyes2 the alert, where were the Patrols services then?


----------



## steve41

If you were homeless and camped out at Bloor & Yonge (is there such an intersection?) and glanced at the newspaper headline.... "12 degrees C in Vancouver".... how long would it take you to haul your sorry *** out to the DTES? We should set up an immigration booth at the BC-Alberta border. Jes sayin.


----------



## nathan79

12C would be nice... that would be near the record of 13.3C.

5C and overcast with drizzle here today. This is the worst kind of weather to me... it's damp, dark, and with humidity near 100% it's not nearly as pleasant as the temperature would lead you to believe. Visibility is also bad, so driving is unpleasant.

I would rather have -10C and sunshine, and it's even better if there's snow on the ground. I love that brightness in the wintertime, it really lifts the spirits. We can often go two weeks without even seeing the sun around here, which is hell if you suffer from SAD.


----------



## carverman

steve41 said:


> If you were homeless and camped out at Bloor & Yonge (is there such an intersection?)
> 
> 
> 
> .
Click to expand...

Yes there is. The Bloor subway intersects the Yonge street subway there. 
The homeless congregate in cold weather around the subway air vents that exhaust heated air from the subway lines onto the sidewalks on Bloor street... or Yonge street as the case may be. 

They lie down on these vents in sleeping bags/cardboard boxes to protect themselves from extreme cold.
In very cold weather these spaces are at a premium (first come-first served).If there isn't enough of these available, then the homeless try to find other shelters to stay warm. 

However, one homeless person mentioned on Global TV when interviewed on a subway vent, he prefers to stay right where he is..
he would never go to one of these warming shelters..too much theft, (wonder what they still have that some other homeless person would steal?)..and too many drugs in these places.

"Exporting them to Vancouver"...now there's a thought for Toronto's homeless problem.
However..it's about territorial rights..as soon as a vacancy becomes available..another homeless person moves in to claim it.


----------



## carverman

That nasty ole Polar Vortex is still hanging on...but on the bright side (if you want to call it that)..the days are starting to get longer again.


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> That nasty ole Polar Vortex is still hanging on...but on the bright side (if you want to call it that)..*the days are starting to get longer again*.


 ... no difference if staying at work later. :mushroom:


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Something that has always been a slight puzzle to me. If you have no job, no home, no family why would you stay in Toronto in winter? Why wouldn't you hitchhike to a warmer climate like Florida, Texas, Louisiana?


----------



## Beaver101

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Something that has always been a slight puzzle to me. If you have no job, no home, no family *why would you stay in Toronto in winter*? *Why wouldn't you hitchhike to a warmer climate like Florida, Texas, Louisiana*?


 ... Toronto is alot warmer than Sudbury for some, for example.... panhandling opportunities are better in Toronto also. Also, are you able to hitchhike across the border without some sort of ID or passport - of which the latter would cost some $$ to obtain.


----------



## steve41

Ooo, Ooo.... here's a thought..... hitchhike West to the DTES, no passports required. BTW, I bet Vancouver is warmer than Texas.


----------



## nathan79

What we've been seeing for the last few years is a persistent ridge along the west coast of North America, and a persistent trough on the eastern side of the continent. As a result, the already milder west coast is even milder than normal, and the east which is typically cold anyway has been even colder than usual. This has really been a terrible pattern for California which is suffering an unprecedented drought.

Meanwhile, heavy rain and warm temperatures have made for another brutal ski season on the west coast. http://metronews.ca/news/vancouver/1264350/north-vancouver-ski-resorts-off-to-a-late-start/

Ski resorts are hopeful that things will turn around, but I'm doubtful they will since El Nino usually brings very mild weather during February. Already, the forecast from Environment Canada shows temperatures as much as 6C above normal for Vancouver, with highs reaching 12C by Monday. http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-74_metric_e.html

Of course, the fear is that with climate change these warm years are becoming more frequent and skiing on Vancouver's north shore may eventually become a thing of the past.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Good thing Global Warming AKA Climate Change has been on hold for the last 15 years.


----------



## Beaver101

steve41 said:


> *Ooo, Ooo*.... here's a thought..... hitchhike West to the DTES, no passports required. BTW, I bet Vancouver is warmer than Texas.


 ... LOL! ... how about a swap? Send (or recommend for vacation) your rich Vancourites buddies over - perfect skiing conditions at Blue Mountains north of Toronto now ... and we'll send you our have-nots homeless folks?... win-win. :biggrin:


----------



## Beaver101

Polar Vortex - Part 2 :snowman:

http://www.thestar.com/news/starweather/2015/02/winter-storm-to-complicate-monday-morning-commute.html

I'm prognosticating Fiddles, Toronto Zoo's groundhog is not going to show up for work in the morning. Bunker down! :biggrin:


----------



## carverman

Beaver101 said:


> Polar Vortex - Part 2 :snowman:
> 
> I'm prognosticating Fiddles, Toronto Zoo's groundhog is not going to show up for work in the morning. Bunker down! :biggrin:


Sounds like the GTA is shutting down? Toronto used to be the "hot spot" in winter in Ontario, 
but not so this year..it's getting the full taste of winter.
However, we are almost "over the hump" for this part of winter 2015. 
Dec 21/14 -> Jan 21/15 = 31 cold miserable days 
Jan 22/15 -> Feb 2 = 11 cold miserable days 
----------------------------------------------- 
That's 42 cold miserable days


Feb 3 - Mar 21 = 47 cold miserable days 

I think in Canada, these groundhogs... Wiarton Willie, Shubencadie Sam and the other one, would be better put to use prognosticating the price of oil over the next two months, as well as the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar vs the USD.


----------



## steve41

Crocuses and snow drops in bloom.... daffodils 6 inches high, should bloom in a week or two.


----------



## Toronto.gal

There have been winters when temperature-wise, Toronto could have been mistaken for Yellowknife by Brazilian tourists. The ones visiting New York last week could hardly speak, literally. 

Anyone here ever took the Polar-Bear Plunge/Swim? I didn't realize the Canadian tradition was nearing a century.

'The water temperature gets as low as 3°C (38°F).' 
http://vancouver.ca/news-calendar/polar-bear-swim-back-for-94th-year-on-january-1.aspx

I gather it wasn't as warm back in 1920.


----------



## cainvest

Toronto.gal said:


> Anyone here ever took the Polar-Bear Plunge/Swim? I didn't realize the Canadian tradition was nearing a century.


I have, was in 2°C water for about 10 minutes but it wasn't by choice .... one of our "passengers" made a mistake and flipped the canoe we were in.


----------



## carverman

Maybe I might as well do some prognosticating meself; the groundhogs are still hibernating..cruel to disturb them from their natural cycle and ask them if spring will come early. 

That's pretty close to animal abuse if it wasn't for this folklore tradition. Besides you can't get them all to come to consensus one way or another..perhaps just like our weathermen..er persons..climatologists/meteorologists.

Here is the latest predictions from our furry friends:
2015	*6 more weeks of winter Punxsutawney Phil* Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania
2015	*Early spring Staten Island Chuck* Staten Island, New York City, New York
2015	*Early spring Dunkirk Dave* Dunkirk, New York

ok enough from our American friends groundhogs..what do our Canadian "woodchucks" say today?



> WIARTON, Ont. -- Ontario's famed groundhog* Wiarton Willie says it'll be an early spring.* The furry forecaster didn't see its shadow Monday morning, which according to folklore means winter is on its way out sooner than later.
> 
> "*Soon the shovels and snow will disappear," town crier MacGregor Tannahill said as cheers rang out from the crowd gathered in Wiarton, Ont., where the windchill made it feel close to -30 C.*
> 
> But not all the weather-predicting rodents agree.
> 
> Both Nova Scotia's *Shubenacadie Sam and Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania saw their shadows, forecasting six more weeks of winter.*
> 
> The lesser-known Winnipeg Willow hasn't been heard from yet.
> 
> The predictions came Monday* as a snow storm hit southwestern Ontario, leading to the closure of dozens of schools in the Toronto region and the cancellation of hundreds of flights at Pearson International Airport.*


So lets take a tally to see if there is any consensus on the probability either way:

*Mr. Phil *: 6 more weeks of winter
*Chuck* sez: early spring 
*Dunkirk Dave* sez: early spring 
so far our US woodchucks are 66% in agreement for an early spring
*
Willie* sez: early spring
*Sam *sez: 6 more weeks of winter
*Winipeg Willow* is nowhere to be found..he may have decided to go down to Arizona and watch the Superbowl.

So far the furry rodents (who are in the know) are about 50% either way, because if Winnipeg Willow finally is dragged out of 
his den, he will no doubt be seeing his shadow..

so that is 3 for 3 (6 weeks of winter/early spring)


----------



## cainvest

carverman said:


> *Winipeg Willow* is nowhere to be found..he may have decided to go down to Arizona and watch the Superbowl.


Update: Winnipeg Willow has forecast an early spring!


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> ...
> 
> So lets take a tally to see if there is any consensus on the probability either way:
> 
> So far the furry rodents (who are in the know) are about 50% either way, because if Winnipeg Willow finally is dragged out of
> his den, he will no doubt be seeing his shadow..
> 
> so that is 3 for 3 (6 weeks of winter/early spring)





cainvest said:


> ... Update: Winnipeg Willow has forecast an early spring!





steve41 said:


> Crocuses and snow drops in bloom.... daffodils 6 inches high, should bloom in a week or two.


 ... steve, so should we send Willow, Sam, and now Willy over for an early munch? :single_eye: green with envy. :biggrin:


----------



## carverman

cainvest said:


> Update: Winnipeg Willow has forecast an early spring!


Ok, so that makes* 4 for an early spring* and *2 for 6 weeks of winter.*
6 weeks from today (Feb 2) is March 14/15.
Official start of spring is March 21

Wait a minute...an early spring ...can it be the same as 6 weeks of winter?...what is it with these prognosticators anyway?:biggrin:

They sounds a lot like the provincial gov't promising to balance the budget.


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> There have been winters when temperature-wise, *Toronto could have been mistaken for Yellowknife by Brazilian tourists*. The ones visiting New York last week could hardly speak, literally.
> 
> Anyone here ever took the Polar-Bear Plunge/Swim? I didn't realize *the Canadian tradition was nearing a century.*
> 'The water temperature gets as low as 3°C (38°F).'
> http://vancouver.ca/news-calendar/polar-bear-swim-back-for-94th-year-on-january-1.aspx
> 
> I gather it wasn't as warm back in 1920.


 ... but Toronto will be a tourists' "hot spot" comes PAN AM 2015.  

Other than the free coffee, tea, and hot chocolate plus the tradition, are there any health benefits to these polar plunge or swims? Not that I will be brave enough to try or find out ... :biggrin:


----------



## carverman

Snowmaggedon in Toronto? Is Toronto going to get what Buffalo got in December?
Thankfully it's not freezing rain like that nasty ice storm in December 2013. 



> In the GTA, snow is expected to fall until around noon, with a total of *15 to 20 centimetres* in the forecast. That snow will be accompanied by freezing temperatures that could make it feel like –26 throughout the morning.


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> Ok, so that makes* 4 for an early spring* and *2 for 6 weeks of winter.*
> 6 weeks from today (Feb 2) is March 14/15.
> Official start of spring is March 21
> 
> Wait a minute...an early spring ...can it be the same as 6 weeks of winter?...what is it with these prognosticators anyway?:biggrin:
> 
> *They sounds a lot like the provincial gov't promising to balance the budget*.


 .... it sure does, and with 100% accuracy of a boondoggle!


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> Snowmaggedon in Toronto? Is Toronto going to get what Buffalo got in December?
> Thankfully it's not freezing rain like that nasty ice storm in December 2013.


 ... no freezing rain today, just fluffy snow with a 15 to 20 cm dump (accurate, believe it or not) and wind-chill does make it like -26c (it's cold) ... with transit and traffic are slow moving all around.


----------



## Beaver101

*The colder it is, the bigger the discount at Mark’s

Is the forecasted low -10C? Ten per cent off clothing at Mark’s stores in the GTA.* 

http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/02/02/the-colder-it-is-the-bigger-the-discount-at-marks.html

.. and who says the weather has no connections to business? This is smart marketing.




Disclaimer: Don't own stocks with this retailer nor affiliation with the advertiser.


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ Yes, it will be an exciting sport hub for the athletes/tourists from the many hot spots [41 participating nations]; even then, I reckon that the hot July temperatures will shock some of them [for those that believe Canada's winter lasts 11 months]. Most will come from Argentina/Brazil/Cuba/Mexico. I know you will be the 1st to start the thread when the time comes. :glee:


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> ^ .. I* know you will be the 1st to start the thread when the time comes*. :glee:


 ... yes, I will and it'll be titled BAM AM GAMES 2015. :biggrin:


----------



## Beaver101

And I thought we were cold here in the Northern Hemisphere. Check these places out for Global or more like Universal Freezing :eek2:: 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/geekquinox/top-5-coldest-places-in-the-universe-153738476.html


----------



## carverman

Beaver101 said:


> And I thought we were cold here in the Northern Hemisphere. Check these places out for Global or more like Universal Freezing :eek2::


That link is kind of meaningless...I really don't care how cold it is on Pluto or Antartica or outer space....
but...the Polar Vortex is back this weekend and I want to know..

When is it going to finally warm up? :biggrin:


----------



## Beaver101

carverman said:


> That link is kind of meaningless...*I really don't care how cold it is on Pluto or Antartica or outer space*....
> but...the Polar Vortex is back this weekend and I want to know...


 ...but does it make you feel so much much much warmer as to where you are now? address: Ottawa, Earth :biggrin:




> When is it going to finally warm up? :biggrin


 ... when you crank up the heat? or make yourself a toast... no, make that super-chili as it's lunch time now. ... :biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Beaver101 said:


> ...but does it make you feel so much much much warmer as to where you are now? address: Ottawa, Earth :biggrin:


Yes, even from Toronto, Earth. 

You can also feel warmer indoors, by watching 'March of the Penguins' [the documentary not cartoon version]. I guarantee that it will not only hypnotize you, but also warm you right up, and I don't just mean your heart! 

And by definition of the *Polar*V, the above is not off-topic.


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> Yes, even from Toronto, Earth.
> 
> You can also feel warmer indoors, by watching *'March of the Penguins' [the documentary *not cartoon version]. I guarantee that it will not only hypnotize you, but also warm you right up, and I don't just mean your heart!
> 
> And by definition of the *Polar*V, the above is not off-topic.


 ...boy, is it warm today in sunny Toronto at -22c (without windshield) and tomorrow is going to get warmer. :biggrin: But still need to re-watch March of the Penguins to be warmest! Love penguins ... and speaking of which, 

*Australia’s oldest man knits sweaters for oil spill-affected penguins.*

Australia’s oldest man knits sweaters for oil spill-affected penguins ... this guy can knit waaaay better than me! Too warm. :cool2: each:


----------



## sags

I second T.Gal on the March of the Penguins movie.........I had to turn on the fireplace and grab a blanket when I watched that.

A fairly low budget movie, I would imagine................that was thoroughly captivating.


----------



## Toronto.gal

*Beav:* your link didn't open, so here it is again:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/goo...est-man-knits-sweaters-for-oil-203500628.html

After learning the art of knitting over a year ago, I can certainly do those, too, and will! 

Re the documentary, I learned so much from it. Here is more info.:

'Jacquet's crew endured minus 104°F (minus 75°C) temps, midnight blizzards, and frigid waters to film the second highest grossing documentary after Fahrenheit 9/11. *But they also had a few magical encounters while capturing the penguins' tenacious will to survive.'*
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/0511/whats_new/march_of_the_penguins.html

And beautifully narrated by Morgan Freeman. 

It was -34c here last night with brutal winds; little better today.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Right now, it's a nice sunny forecast of -39c (with the windchill bonus of course) here in TO. 

At least some Ontarians can make good of this Polar Vortex - 

*Free ice-fishing weekend has newbies angling for fun *

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/02/14/free-ice-fishing-weekend-has-newbies-angling-for-fun.html

PS: Thanks TO.gal for the above link correction - hope this latest one works correctly.


----------



## Beaver101

A lovely scenery in our very own (Ontario) backyard generated from this loong-winding Polar Vortex:

*Niagara Falls frozen over* by Newsflare 4:40 mins

https://ca.screen.yahoo.com/weird-nature/niagara-falls-frozen-over-140000037.html

(There're bonus UFO videos after this Niagara Falls clips too). :biggrin:


And now half -way around the world where you least expect this, :confused2:

*Snowstorm hits Jerusalem and Israel's desert* 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/photos/snow-blankets-jerusalem-and-israel-s-desert-slideshow/

Hmmm... Vancouver/Victoria, B.C. looks so tempting for a March break vacation. :tan:


----------



## sags

Coldest February on record for Eastern US states and parts of Canada.

The records were broken in some places by an additional -15 degrees Celsius.

I heard on the news that Lake Erie is 95% frozen over. That rarely happens.

In the history of Long Point, Ontario............a shoreline point of land now owned by a consortium of Americans, there is a story of a guy who was being chased by the police.

To avoid capture he lit out over the lake in the winter and was last seen disappearing into the dark of a frozen over lake. The cops didn't follow him and he was never captured.

A true story of a wild storm that cut a path across the sandy inlet deep and wide enough to allow shipping through the peninsula. Freighters went back and forth for years. A lighthouse was built.

Decades later, another violent storm blew from the other direction and filled the channel in again.

Remnants of the lighthouse were still there identifying where the channel used to be.

The point........entirely made of sand, is often shifting around.

A few years ago, I took my boat out for a run.........and was surprised to see people standing way out in the lake. They were standing on a sandbar.

I had bought the boat from a guy who took his wife and grandkids out of a boat ride to the tip of Long Point. It started out as a fine day, but on the way back a big storm developed and the waves were crashing over the boat. He had fastened down the top and they made it back.............but it terrified him so much that he sold the boat.

Long Point has a long and interesting history.


----------



## carverman

sags said:


> Coldest February on record for Eastern US states and parts of Canada.
> 
> The records were broken in some places by an additional -15 degrees Celsius.
> 
> I heard on the news that Lake Erie is 95% frozen over. That rarely happens.


Yes, this is the winter of the Polar Vortex. The weather guy on Global mentioned last night that this was "Hit #4"..
so far and no relief in sight..this crazy oscillation will continue into the next two weeks of March.

I feel sorry for the Maritimers..they have a lot of problems this winter with snowmaggedon...and no where to put it
anymore. Some schools have been shut down because the school buses can't run.


----------



## sags

They are calling this one the Siberian Express.

As Sarah Putin once observed.............we are breathing the same air as Putin..........

The amount of snow in the Maritimes is staggering. 

It will take forever to truck it out to the country. If they leave it in place there could be massive flooding in the spring.

In Ontario, I have about a foot of snow stacked on the BBQ and I had swept some off earlier in the winter.

A week until March and a month until spring.............and it can't come fast enough for everyone.


----------



## carverman

The coldest February on record (at least in Ottawa)....that early March sunshine feels so nice. 

I guess we can put the POLAR VORTEX thread to bed until next December. 

Now it's Maple syrup and spring floods. 
Poor Maritimers...they should maybe invest in houseboats?:biggrin:


----------



## cainvest

carverman said:


> I guess we can put the POLAR VORTEX thread to bed until next December.


So what now ... Tropical Vortex, Gulf Stream Heat Blast, other?


----------



## Beaver101

^ Daylight's Savings Time, next?


----------

