# 2019 Predictions Contest



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

2019 Predictions Contest
The predictions contest is on again! If we can just forecast the end of this December 2018! It seems that 8 people were right about 2018!

Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on December 31, 2019 in the following format:

S&P500: 
TSX: 
GOLD: 
OIL: 
CAD: 

with the dollar amounts in USD. The index is just that. No dollar value. The deadline is January 14 at 9:30 EST and the first results will be published after market close in January.

Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before the deadline. Good luck and happy investing.


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## lonewolf :) (Sep 13, 2016)

Would be very interesting to get the percentage of bulls & bears for each investment category. Perhaps also the average percentage gain or loss for each category


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## MarcoE (May 3, 2018)

I really have no idea, but I'll play for fun.

S&P500: 2300
TSX: 13,000
GOLD: 1,500 USD

I don't know about oil and CAD.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

wth, my entry:

s&p500: 2101
tsx: 15101
gold: 1301
oil: 71.01
cad:1.01

Thanks Keith


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

MarcoE said:


> I really have no idea, but I'll play for fun.
> 
> S&P500: 2300
> TSX: 13,000
> ...


I will have to give you the average of guesses for oil and CAD so you can have a chance to win.


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## MrBean (Aug 16, 2018)

S&P500: 2300
TSX: 13800
GOLD: 1395 USD/oz
OIL: some clarification needed. what rate are we using? theres WTI and Brent
CAD: 1:1.2571 USD:CAD


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## nortel'd (Mar 20, 2012)

I voted pessimistic with continued uncertainty. For that reason, I feel all gains made since November 04, 2016 will vanish and then some.

I predict:	
S&P 500: 2085
TSX:	12073
GOLD: 1302
OIL: 42.8
CAD: 0.71


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Not as pessimistic as some, I guess.

S&P500: 2381
TSX: 14481
GOLD: 1281
OIL: 52.81
CAD:0.7281


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

kcowan said:


> I will have to give you the average of guesses for oil and CAD so you can have a chance to win.


I don't think that's fair. Non-supplied numbers should be zeros or something.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I am open to alternative suggestions on how to treat non-guesses. Zeroes will ensure that them not winning. I am trying to be fair to all. Averaging just three guesses is unfair to those who vote all five.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

S&p 500: 3400
tsx: 16000
gold: 1200
oil: 75
cad: 0.77


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

This contest was initiated by Gummy, a math professor who really retired from spreadsheet creation and tutorials in 2008. Here are the 2009 results for comparison 10 years later:


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## Thal81 (Sep 5, 2017)

Here are my predictions, directly from my good ol' crystal ball, so I know they're true.

S&P500: 3200
TSX: 17500
GOLD: 1200
OIL: 65
CAD:0.80

thanks!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

MrBean said:


> S&P500: 2300
> TSX: 13800
> GOLD: 1395 USD/oz
> OIL: some clarification needed. what rate are we using? theres WTI and Brent
> CAD: 1:1.2571 USD:CAD


WTI


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

My wild guess - 

S&P500: 2,000 
TSX: 13,100
GOLD: 1,280
OIL: $50
CAD: $0.75


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## stantistic (Sep 19, 2015)

S&P 500 2,250
TSX 12,800
GOLD 1,320
OIL 49
CAD 0.82

In my view, entries with (less/more) than the basic five are incompatible.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

stantistic said:


> In my view, entries with (less/more) than the basic five are incompatible.


Less, I agree: I don't think there is a fair way to fill in the blanks if someone doesn't specify the basic 5. But I don't see a problem if someone wants to call out their prescience of copper futures, or the DAX, or whatever -- it just will not be in the spreadsheet.


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## MrBean (Aug 16, 2018)

MrBean said:


> S&P500: 2300
> TSX: 13800
> GOLD: 1395 USD/oz
> OIL: some clarification needed. what rate are we using? theres WTI and Brent
> CAD: 1:1.2571 USD:CAD


S&P500: 2300
TSX: 13800
GOLD: 1395 USD/oz
OIL: 50
CAD: 1:1.2571 USD:CAD


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## ddivadius (Apr 28, 2017)

Need to make up my poor performance from last year.

S&P500: 3005
TSX: 15866
GOLD: 1180
OIL: 81
CAD: 0.78


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

S&P500: 2975
TSX: 13900
gold: 1275
oil: 68
cad: 0.75


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

I think there is a relation between oil price and CAD. Some are forecasting higher oil price but lower CAD or vice versa. Something doesn't make sense to me. My understanding is that if oil price is higher, CAD would be higher too.


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## naysmitj (Sep 16, 2014)

S&p500: 2200
tsx: 17300
gold: 1500
oil: 55
cad:0.76


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## tombiosis (Dec 18, 2010)

s&p:2725
tsx: 14875
gold: 1295.00
oil: 83.25
CAD: 0.825


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## MrBean (Aug 16, 2018)

scorpion_ca said:


> I think there is a relation between oil price and CAD. Some are forecasting higher oil price but lower CAD or vice versa. Something doesn't make sense to me. My understanding is that if oil price is higher, CAD would be higher too.


Diversification of bets...:excitement:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I suspect it is also because the guesses are made independently without modelling.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here is the last year that my predecessor, gummy, ran the contest 10 years ago:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Reminder that your input is due in one week.

Here is how the TSX forecasts looked over 10 years:


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

S&P500: 2250
TSX: 10197
gold: 1182
oil: 60.46
cad: 0.77


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## Butter (Nov 26, 2017)

S&p500: 2726
tsx: 15,551
gold: 1,321
oil: 65
cad: .825


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

S&P 500: 2,685
TSX: 15,818
Gold: 1,323
Oil: 55
CAD: .75


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

s&p 500: 2,705
tsx: 15,425
gold: 1,320
oil: 57.50
CAD: 0.79

Thanks for running this again


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

S&p500:2895
tsx:17750
gold:1195
oil:65
cad:.795


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here goes nothing
S&P500: 2,800
TSX: 16,250	
GOLD: $1,380	
OIL: $58.00	
CAD: 0.7820
Reminder that your guesses are due before market open on Monday!


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## sparky61 (Dec 6, 2014)

S&P 500: 2450
TSX: 14000
GOLD: $ 1280.00
OIL: $ 50.00
CAD: $ 0.72

Thanks for running the contest again!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The deadline for submissions has now passed.
The roster has been posted here.

Please check for any typos. Thanks.

We are down from 32 participants to just 19. I guess the markets scared off a few.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Sorry guys I was in Florida for a couple weeks on vacation and guess I missed deadline


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

We'll miss you marina. See you in the contest next year! I figured you were tied up doing something worthwhile.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Yes we were in Orlando and every day 29 and 30 degrees , had a great time there .


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

First month results: Jimmy is the early leader.

https://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2019Predictions.jpg


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

Yikes. Not sure leading now is a good thing vs in Dec. lol


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

TSX posts a 8.50% monthly gain in January and up about 1800 points above it's Dec 24th low.

Strategy update: Selling low still a bad strategy.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Jimmy again!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Butter is the new leader, and Jimmy has slipped to 3rd place with kcowan in 2nd.


kcowan said:


> Jimmy again!


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

kcowan said:


> Butter is the new leader, and Jimmy has slipped to 3rd place with kcowan in 2nd.




Somehow looks like I got missed! First time back to this thread since posting.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

RBull said:


> Somehow looks like I got missed! First time back to this thread since posting.


Thanks. You are in 6th place.

Latest results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Sure glad we included you RBull. You are the new leader!


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

LOl, thank you kcowan!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Jimmy regains the lead.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

All the indicators are positive this month and 
the New leader is kcowan 
with 2nd place to Butter 
and 3rd place to MyOwnAdvisor. 

Half way there! I hope we have a positive second half.

Mid-year results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan hangs onto first place with Jimmy breathing down his neck as usual!

Current results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan still clinging to first place with Jimmy breathing down his neck as usual!

Current results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

No change this month.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Still no change. Maybe we are in for a change up: Up or Down?


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

Should be interesting the last 2 months. Last yr we had that big crash in Dec that really changed the results.


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## hfp75 (Mar 15, 2018)

Jimmy said:


> Should be interesting the last 2 months. Last yr we had that big crash in Dec that really changed the results.


That was all Jay Powell - until he dovishly came crawling back in an economics meeting stating he was gonna cool his jets....


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Unbelievable 5 month run. No change again. Congratulations to the current leaders.

November results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

*Final results*

Final results are ready for posting. Winner is:







with the runner-ups:
Thal81
Butter

Conratulations to kcowan and all the category winners.

Final results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

*Category winners*

and the winners in each category are:







and they are
S&P Thal81
TSX naysmitj
GOLD naysmitj
OIL Butter
CAD naysmitj


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## Thal81 (Sep 5, 2017)

Very close call! Well done sir... I shall take my revenge next year!


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

kcowan said:


> Final results are ready for posting. Winner is:
> View attachment 19836
> 
> with the runner-ups:
> ...


Congratulations! You held strong. $ rise hurt me in Dec.


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