# magna (MG toronto; MG ny)



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

am wondering if we have a thread on Magna.

for a diehard optimist who thinks the world has a future, this could look promising. ARC, or Accountability Research Corporation, a private toronto-based research firm, recommends MG as a buy.

long-term negatives: arc says MG's european sales will continue weakish as mg aggressively underpriced product for europe but cannot sustain those prices & will have difficulty increasing.

arc continues that japan will never buy much from magna, although china & brazil are expanding markets.

forward-looking charts are looking mildly bullish (stochs) to me.

options are appealing, plus there are US options.

as everyone knows, distancing of the stronach family plus elimination of the dual share structure are big positives. As for insider trading, recently one director pecked up 2800 shares in the 34.70 range. In early 2011 there was massive insider selling at much higher prices.

wondering: does magna have any relationship with tata motors ?
also wondering: what is a CUV 

(edit) one can't edit a title ... but mg on ny is MGA ...


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> also wondering: what is a CUV ?


Crossover Utility Vehicle.

You know those weird looking cars, which is basically a car and a van smushed together?

It's basically an SUV that was built on a car platform (usually a previous car from the same manufacturer).

*Original Car - Mitsubishi Lancer*










*Crossover using Mitsubishi Lancer platform - *Mitsubishi Outlander*


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Excellent company, good buy when you think the market is on a tear


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I don't know how I feel about it. In 08/09 MGA reached $12.50...

Not sure how I would feel buying it at $34+..

I can see the appeal, but I think I rather stay out.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

thanx, no wonder the CUV is so ugly. Although i'm against gaz-guzzlin SUVs too.

ARC research thinks aging population will buy small cars, minicars, city cars, says SUV sales will drop as population ages ...


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

kae in the lows of 09 even your beloved bmo was down in the high 20s ...

anyhow we don't pay 35, we only put up 30 bucks when also selling a 30 put plus a 36 call.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*seasonality*











> Magna International Inc. (MGA) Seasonality
> 
> Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 9 and a sell date of July 19, investors have benefited from a total return of 504.24% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 8 of those periods.
> 
> ...


Note that data on above graph is up to end 2009.

Mar 9 to July 19 2010 (+23%)
Mar 9 to July 19 2011 (+4%)


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

zylon what's with the march in/july out dates, won't you please enlighten.

it's true these might be the best months for finished car sales. But orders for parts & assemblies from automotive manufacturers have got to predate those dates by roughly half-a-year, no.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

I don't know what else I can add ... data is data. Presuming of course, that it's accurate, which is *always* a dangerous assumption.

Buying on March 9 and selling on July 19 has produced positive results 8 out of 10 years up to end 2009.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Seems that MG's execs were the highest paid Canadians in 2011:

1 - Frank Stronach - $61,811,287
2 - Donald Walker - $16,678,837
3 - Siegfried Wolf - $16,527,936


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## Killer Z (Oct 25, 2013)

Did anyone pick up any shares of MG when it dipped into the $90s not too long ago? Quite a quick turnaround these past two weeks.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

Killer Z said:


> Did anyone pick up any shares of MG when it dipped into the $90s not too long ago? Quite a quick turnaround these past two weeks.


No, and I am kicking myself. It was sold down to $94 on pure fear and lunacy.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Well that's weird. 

Magna stock started trading split 2:1 on Thurs Mar 26, 2015.
And yet, in my Scotia iTrade account, my number of shares remain at 200. They should be 400.

I will contact Scotia iTrade on Monday. Has anyone else received their split shares?


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

I'm sure it'll fix itself in a day or two. The trading system with different brokerages tend to act screwy a day or so after any stock split.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

It looks like.... just like a stock trade..... I had to wait T+3 days settlement for this to reflect in my account. 
It's there now. thanks.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Magna to buy Germany’s Getrag for $2.5-billion. 

So far, the markets seems to like this move, with shares up 2% in pre-market action.
Woohoo!


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## Asterix (Jul 19, 2012)

Might start a position after the drop today. Thoughts?


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

Asterix said:


> Might start a position after the drop today. Thoughts?


There's still demand for their products and services. Valuation is in line with historical average. From some reports that I read, the strengthening of US dollar hurts them, as sales denominated in other currencies worth less. That trend may continue, depending your outlook on the strength of the greenback. Is it time to buy based on this drop? Up to you. I like the name and I love the clean balance sheet. I like that it buys back shares and grows it dividend yearly.


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## agaasenbeek (Nov 5, 2015)

Asterix said:


> Might start a position after the drop today. Thoughts?


Seems to me that their actual operations are sound, yet the company's overall earnings took a hit due to the strengthening USD. Valuation is still very attractive at about 11 or so. MG's debt however has ticked up slightly which is always a warning sign to me however, looking like they are doing it to buy back stock. In hindsight companies have been notorious for stock buybacks when their stocks are trading at historical highs so this makes me a bit nervous. It's not worth going into debt to buy back stock. Production continues to rise however, and the company will benefit from the surging middle class in India and China. As long as they don't get overly aggressive with stock buybacks, and they continue to churn out reasonable earnings when adjusted for currency impacts, I think MG continues to be a great core holding in a portfolio.


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

I'm interested in buying this name for my RRSP, it will make up 8% of my total holdings. I like it for its international exposure, Canadian based, and all of the details mentioned above as per the companies current and future financial health. For some reason though I keep sitting here in cash? 

Nothing really wrong here from my eye, not much for opposing news or reviews found.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/373...ive-supplier-financial-strength-and-stability


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## cn_habs (Oct 27, 2015)

bflannel said:


> I'm interested in buying this name for my RRSP, it will make up 8% of my total holdings. I like it for its international exposure, Canadian based, and all of the details mentioned above as per the companies current and future financial health. For some reason though I keep sitting here in cash?
> 
> Nothing really wrong here from my eye, not much for opposing news or reviews found.
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/373...ive-supplier-financial-strength-and-stability


I think MG still seems attractive but LNR is better long term pick based on long term growth and diversification prospects.

Unless I am mistaken, both have US-based revenues which should help in the upcoming year due to our weak loonie.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

cn_habs said:


> Unless I am mistaken, both have US-based revenues which should help in the upcoming year due to our weak loonie.


MG has _global _revenues and pays dividends in USD$ - one among 20-odd Canadian companies that do so.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

It is too early to buy this stock. If one bought it, say back in 2011, they should be selling it now. It is a cyclical stock that has topped out as the cycle is topping out. Such stocks top out as the business is booming. Same with other stocks such as oil: buy on bad news, and if you sell, sell on good news.


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Pluto said:


> It is too early to buy this stock. If one bought it, say back in 2011, they should be selling it now. It is a cyclical stock that has topped out as the cycle is topping out. Such stocks top out as the business is booming. Same with other stocks such as oil: buy on bad news, and if you sell, sell on good news.


What makes this cyclical? Looking the chart it doesn't seem to be anyway?

Thanks for your input.


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## treva84 (Dec 9, 2014)

It looks like revenues are going to continue to grow in the future. Cash flow looks healthy. Valuation appears to be quite reasonable. With my 2016 TFSA money I'm going to pick some up.


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## cn_habs (Oct 27, 2015)

This may bottom at 40 dollar level if the selloff continues.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

I believe the time to invest in MG has passed. I first purchased it in Jan of 2013 for $50 (adjusted for the split $25) and held it until mid-2014. I was really surprised that after that run (during which time it doubled) everyone started getting excited about it and recommending it. I feel like the time to buy cyclical industrials is when they are bottomed out and sell them into the rise of the next cycle. Investors seem to be chasing this one down the other side of the hill. EPS growth has been fueled by buybacks and revenue growth has been fairly muted.


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## Killer Z (Oct 25, 2013)

It is remarkably cheap on a P/E basis (even as an auto part manufacturer), however I agree with CPA Candidate. Very tempting to chase this one, however it appears to be on the downhill of the cycle. $40/share is a strong possibility before the end of 2016.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Earnings reported on Friday.
Even though Magna was hurt by the strong U.S. dollar, they reported strong quarterly sales growth.

The stock was up 7.3% Friday.

This stock has been a laggard, so I'm happy with this result.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

To revive the thread 
What do you think about MG at current levels? . Both trailing and forward P/E ratio are significantly lower than 5 years average, payout ratio is very low too..


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

I bought 800x MG when I thought it was bottoming at around $61. There is nothing they're doing differently/negatively that should reflect the current price other than the market on a whole is down since I bought. Recent expansion and positive ER's have only slightly helped. I ended up selling off about half as a capital loss as I needed to free up some funds for trading. I know it will eventually make it back up, but it could take a while. The divs aren't no hell.
If I had cash burning a hole in my pocket I'd probably still pick some more up at current price. Strong company imo.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

bflannel said:


> What makes this cyclical? Looking the chart it doesn't seem to be anyway?
> 
> Thanks for your input.


What makes it cyclical? Autos are cyclical. 
I think if you look at other auto stock charts, such as GM, you will find the same pattern - the stock prices top out as record sales arrive. Then the stock price meanders down, as earnings are peaking giving them a very low P/E. Looks great to a stock buyer, but often leads to disappointment as sales taper off, earnings drop, and p/e expands. The time to buy is when sales are down, p/e is high and price is low. Often this is during a recession when car buying is postponed, repairing the clunker is in favour, and the average age of cars on the road increases. Eventually times improve, pent up demand becomes the wind in the sails, and the autos take off again. If you watch this through a cycle, you will notice the stock tends to get weak around the time record sales are announced. EG '09 when sales were low, to last year when record sales were announced - MG stock did fine until record sales arrived. Then it started to correct. Buy on bad news, sell on good news.


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## agaasenbeek (Nov 5, 2015)

Pluto said:


> What makes it cyclical? Autos are cyclical.
> I think if you look at other auto stock charts, such as GM, you will find the same pattern - the stock prices top out as record sales arrive. Then the stock price meanders down, as earnings are peaking giving them a very low P/E. Looks great to a stock buyer, but often leads to disappointment as sales taper off, earnings drop, and p/e expands. The time to buy is when sales are down, p/e is high and price is low. Often this is during a recession when car buying is postponed, repairing the clunker is in favour, and the average age of cars on the road increases. Eventually times improve, pent up demand becomes the wind in the sails, and the autos take off again. If you watch this through a cycle, you will notice the stock tends to get weak around the time record sales are announced. EG '09 when sales were low, to last year when record sales were announced - MG stock did fine until record sales arrived. Then it started to correct. Buy on bad news, sell on good news.


I bought in at $62 and am beginning to fear that the timing was poor. I think most people would agree that we are nearer the end of a bull cycle than the beginning of one. Might be time to start moving into more defensive holdings.


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

agaasenbeek said:


> I bought in at $62 and am beginning to fear that the timing was poor. I think most people would agree that we are nearer the end of a bull cycle than the beginning of one. Might be time to start moving into more defensive holdings.


I think if you're patient and can afford to have the funds tied up for another 6 or 12 months this is one that will come back up. Otherwise dump it when it hits $55 again and rebuy on a dip. I lost about $15K on the VRX drop but have so far made about 1/3 of it back by doing this. Bulls or bears don't matter.


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## damaaster (Mar 27, 2015)

Hippie said:


> I think if you're patient and can afford to have the funds tied up for another 6 or 12 months this is one that will come back up. Otherwise dump it when it hits $55 again and rebuy on a dip. I lost about $15K on the VRX drop but have so far made about 1/3 of it back by doing this. Bulls or bears don't matter.


Starting to look pretty tempting at these prices


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I'm looking at this too. If it drops below $42, look out below, but otherwise this is selling off in anticipation of an auto sales correction which hasn't happened. Actual business is doing very well, in fact Q1 2016 had revenue up 15% year over year, which was actually 20%+ on a per-share basis. A lot better to buy it when it starts to price in a sales slowdown; if it happens, fine, but if it doesn't I think you can do very well.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

doctrine said:


> I'm looking at this too..


With low debt, P/E 7.35 (forward P/E 6.7), Price/cash flow 4.95, payout ratio just 18% and 5 Year Yield Growth Rate 18% it really looks attractive....



> selling off in anticipation of an auto sales correction which hasn't happened


maybe because Brexit?!
May 25, 2016 /CNW/ - Magna International Inc. today announced it will build a new world-class aluminum casting facility in Telford, United Kingdom, to support Jaguar Land Rover, the UK's leading vehicle manufacturer.
http://www.magna.com/mobile/news/20...unces-new-aluminum-casting-facility-in-the-uk


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## amack081 (Jun 23, 2015)

I've been steadily averaging down and have increased my holdings by 25%. While its hard to keep seeing a loss position, I feel over the long term it will be worth it. 

Light vehicle production increased 10% in NA and 7% in Europe compared to first quarter 2015, combined with the acquisition of Getrag, I feel that MG will come full swing around.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

I've been waiting for a chance to get this into my dividend portfolio, and today the dividend yield is in the 3% range.


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## hollyhunter (Mar 10, 2016)

Insider ownership is at 1.60%, with instituitional ownership at 72.20%. Magna International Inc. has a payout ratio of 18.10%. With the total shares outstanding coming to 394.94. The shares float is 371.1, with the float short at 0.72%, with short ratio coming to 1.68.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I'm liking my Magna position here. If auto sales don't tank, then MG can easily go up 25%. If auto sales grow (they never actually shrunk yet), MG could return to the all time high which is still 45% away. Meanwhile, they are buying back crazy amounts of stock at a very cheap price out of cash flow. Technically, it's in a short term uptrend, above the 10 and 20 day moving average, but still below the 50 day - it's just about to test it.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Wanted to average down in $42's, but missed it


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Any bad news?! MG dropped 4.2%, but couldn't find any.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Ford released results and was pummeled down 8% based on lower projections, bringing down other auto producers and auto parts makers alike. I decided I like it less at $50 and and will take my 10% in 3 weeks and go away.


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## jerryhung (Mar 28, 2011)

gibor365 said:


> Any bad news?! MG dropped 4.2%, but couldn't find any.





doctrine said:


> Ford released results and was pummeled down 8% based on lower projections, bringing down other auto producers and auto parts makers alike. I decided I like it less at $50 and and will take my 10% in 3 weeks and go away.


F killed all auto stocks
LNR/MG both -4% yesterday
up about +1% today

I'm selling 100% my LNR/MG if they break even (~$55)...


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## amack081 (Jun 23, 2015)

Exceeding expectations

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...america-europe-vehicle-sales/article31286651/

In my opinion, one of the best run companies in Canada.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

whoa, last post from 2016....

so, now that NAFTA.....er YMCA er, sorry ...USMCA... thingy has been settled, where to for MG from here?
it shot uo nicely early today to $74.40, but settled back to close at $69.36.
i was going to place an order at $70 today, but held off.
i think its a good buy at these levels, going forward, as they say.
any comments frim the peanut gallery?


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Yeah, I think tomorrow is MG (actually MGA) day for me. I should have pulled the trigger last week, but the threat of car tariffs made the likelihood of a sweeter deal too tempting.

There was a more recent thread on MG -- I posted on it in June or so I think.

edit: this one: https://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/134744-Sell-in-May-summer-buys?highlight=magna
Not strictly about MG but that seemed to be the main topic.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

hmmmm....down to under $69 after starting out the day $70+ ..... puzzling? ?.....


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Looks like the current buying opportunity is continuing. Maybe I pulled the trigger too soon.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

me too, i think.
stil....got it under $70.....maybe ill be happy couple yrs from now


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

I don't know what is bugging magna. maybe steel and aluminum tariffs...maybe auto cycle ....maybe ??? sigh.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

Pluto said:


> I don't know what is bugging magna. maybe steel and aluminum tariffs...maybe auto cycle ....maybe ??? sigh.


having same thoughts now, pluto...&#55357;&#56886;


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Down 2% this morning to just over $66. What's going on? There must be some news.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

....nothing going on....other than jargey just bought some!!....story of my (investing) life!!!.....
i'm gettin' OUT a this business!!


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Most stocks move with the broad market, on average. The TSX has been steadily declining since the start of July, so it shouldn't be a surprise that MG is too.

That's what stocks do.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

...sheeeshhh..touching $64 today....


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## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

gardner said:


> Down 2% this morning to just over $66. What's going on? There must be some news.


there is news....it's the new USMCA trade deal.
it restricts Canada's ability to import cheap steel and aluminum from China via a bilateral trade deal to build cars and auto parts.

there is also a cap on maximum auto parts export from Mexico and Canada to the US.
that cap is higher than current export....but who knows in the future.

i think the USMCA deal is not as good for Canada as initially seemed....there are many problems hidden inside.
the first day all 3 auto part stocks were up but after reading through the nitty gritties, market is selling off.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

SixesAndSevens said:


> i think the USMCA deal is not as good for Canada as initially seemed....there are many problems hidden inside.
> the first day all 3 auto part stocks were up but after reading through the nitty gritties, market is selling off.


This often is an explanation for news events and stocks - the "slow" reaction.

Is this really what is happening though? It seems implausible to me and defies the idea of an "efficient market". The market moving big brokers have the best, smartest analysts, and read everything newsworthy instantly. How can new news get "absorbed" over the course of a few days? Sure this makes sense if retail investors moved a market, but they don't, right?


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

sub-$62 early today. jay-sus!


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## Rancid Crabtree (Aug 23, 2018)

It looks like trouble coming 


https://www.thestar.com/amp/news/gt...-mismanagement-of-assets-and-trust-funds.html


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

...a-HA!!...

https://business.financialpost.com/...inda-for-allegedly-mismanaging-family-fortune


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

and, its now UP a dollar.....


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Rancid Crabtree said:


> It looks like trouble coming
> 
> 
> https://www.thestar.com/amp/news/gt...-mismanagement-of-assets-and-trust-funds.html


 ... at the end of the day, wouldn't the $$$ (shareholders?) just flow from Stronach to Stronach or within its clan?


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## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

how does this affect the stock i don't understand?
isn't frank stronach like 90 yrs old and retired?
stock hasn't moved (which is actually good given what's going on), no?


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

anybody follow MG? dropped 5% today...any comments why? GM Oshawa maybe...?


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

jargey3000 said:


> GM Oshawa maybe


That would be my guess. I think MG is fairly diversified and if they don't sell interiors or seats or whatever to GM in Oshawa, they will instead sell them to GM in San Luis. I doubt there is a huge threat to MG's business, but certainly a cause for concern.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I would suggest the 15% drop in car sales (by volume) in the US year over year has more to do with it. GM is a symptom of a slowing demand for cars which will also hit Magna.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

yes, its the cars dropping in sales, not trucks and suv's. MG is one of those fine survivor type businesses so there won't be any disaster, but also not much growth on the horizon right now either.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

(internal lawsuits notwithstanding...)


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

...showing a bit of life this week...?


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Magna > Linamar + Martinrea; The company is one of my favourite long term holds. Excited to see how the EV JV in China adds to their books, with China a target for global climate change actions I suspect the gov will continue to offer subsidies and incentives boosting ev sales and the IP carries forward well for MG. 

I only wonder if I should hold it in my $usd account to avoid the divy conversion. Thoughts?


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

...any current thoughts on the outlook for this stock, ...going forward as they say??...
have father & daughter settled their lawsuits?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

I'm not sure the lawsuit really matters. haven't heard any thing to that effect. Have you heard that it matters?


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## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

Have been in and out of this stock over the years. Things looked good enough for the coming year to step back into it.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

I had an order back in April that was 4c away from being filled, then it just didn't stop going up. Would've been up 100% since then.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Getting hit hard due to turmoil in Russia, where they have 6 plants that are now idled. Almost a 20% drop since the war started. Is that justified?


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

nobleea said:


> Getting hit hard due to turmoil in Russia, where they have 6 plants that are now idled. Almost a 20% drop since the war started. Is that justified?


Markets overreacted. I loaded up in low 70s it has fantastic financials, great P/E, some dividends. No brainer. Back to 120 in no time.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

That's what I thought. If it breaks 70, I will probably double down.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

Its a bit early to buy yet as it will likely continue going down but as mentioned below the $70 level may be a good time to take a position.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

newfoundlander61 said:


> Its a bit early to buy yet as it will likely continue going down but as mentioned below the $70 level may be a good time to take a position.


You think it's early?

I don't think it's going under 70.
I think the bottom already happened.

I'll put my money where my mouth is and I'll buy some today. It was not on my radar but after looking into it, I'm taking a position.

Thank you @nobleea for bumping this thread


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

You could very well be right, picking a bottom is usually not possible so I know better than that. Just thinking that the 6 plants in Russia will be closed down for a while yet. But whether this will have an impact on the stock I am not sure about that part.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

newfoundlander61 said:


> Its a bit early to buy yet as it will likely continue going down but as mentioned below the $70 level may be a good time to take a position.


Started to rebound already.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Just bought in @ $75.75.


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## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

I added to my position at $78 or so today. Too slow off the bounce, I home. I feel that even if all 6 Russian plants get nationalized the share price will get above 100 modestly soon.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

There will be an opportunity tomorrow for anyone missing this gravy train as swing traders take profit.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

fstamand said:


> There will be an opportunity tomorrow for anyone missing this gravy train as swing traders take profit.


I thought of this.
I'm ready to deploy more capital if it drops far enough.

I think I'd need to see closer to 70 before adding much more, but it definitely seems like a bargain. Just don't want to end up buying tranches too close together in the 70s only to watch it hit 60 when Russia blows up something else.


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