# 2016 Predictions Contest



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

A glutton for punishment, I will run the predictions contest again until we get it right!

The averages of all predictions were closest for the DOW:
Median 19213
Average 18470
Actual 17525

The rest of the averages were wildly optimistic with a few notable exceptions!
Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on Dec 31, 2016 in the following format:

DOW: 
TSX: 
GOLD: 
OIL: 
CAD: 

with the dollar amounts in USD. I am giving us all an extra week this year. Lord knows we need it.

Deadline for entry is January 17th at 9:30 am EST. Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before then. Good luck and happy investing.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Dow: 18200
tsx: 14500
gold: $1250
oil: $70
cad: 0.80


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

Even the TSX should be in USD? If we look at publicized numbers for it, is it in CAD or USD? I always assumed CAD.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Thanks kcowan!! Will enter in the weeks to come.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Spudd said:


> Even the TSX should be in USD? If we look at publicized numbers for it, is it in CAD or USD? I always assumed CAD.


Both the Dow and TSX are Indices. USD only applies to the other three. Yes I understand the the value of the C$ can influence the TSX so that might influence your forecast.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Dow: 16101
tsx: 14101
gold: 1101
oil: .501
cad: .501

Happy new year everyone! 

Making some changes to above. Thanks Mr. KCowan for holding this serious contest! :smilet-digitalpoint


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## 4n2t0 (Dec 8, 2015)

Dow: 18639
tsx: 14084
gold: 1021
oil: 86.56
cad: 0.77


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## LBCfan (Jan 13, 2011)

Dow: 16,900
tsx: 14,700
gold: 940
oil: 64.31
cad: 0.83


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## Woz (Sep 5, 2013)

Dow: 18,500
tsx: 13,300
gold: 1,020
oil: 52
cad: 0.68


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Dow: 17,556
tsx: 12,750
gold: 960
oil: 47.5
cad: .755


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## Taraz (Nov 24, 2013)

Dow: 16150
tsx: 13600
gold: 1100
oil: 52
cad: 0.78


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## nortel'd (Mar 20, 2012)

I predict
DOW: 15300
TSX: 11750
GOLD: 1050
OIL: 43
CAD: 0.72


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

DOW: 16,500
TSX: 13,000
GOLD: 1,100
OIL: 45
CAD: 0.74

Bring it on 2016!!! Happy New Year CMFers! (Back to my cold beer(s))...


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

Sorry - this may be answered elsewhere, but,if this is a "contest", are there or will there be, "winners" announced for the just-ending 2015 contest?


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## Sm5 (Nov 2, 2014)

I'll play:

DOW: 17,500 
TSX: 12,500
GOLD: 1,300
OIL: 35
CAD: 0.68


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Dow: 17,500
tsx: 13,100
gold: 1000
oil: 41
cad: .6


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## Freddie70 (Oct 19, 2013)

Dow: 19100
tsx: 11700
gold: 925
oil: 31
cad: .68


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

jargey3000 said:


> Sorry - this may be answered elsewhere, but,if this is a "contest", are there or will there be, "winners" announced for the just-ending 2015 contest?


From the 2015 thread..


kcowan said:


> We divide up the fees for entry (less a modest administrative fee). 10% for each category winner and 50% for the overall predictor.:cower:


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## tombiosis (Dec 18, 2010)

I was almost dead last for 2015! How embarrassing! lol
here are my predictions for 2016

Dow: 18250
TSX: 12925
Gold: 1180
Oil: 56.5
CAD: .78.2


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Dow: 18500
TSX: 14250
Gold: 1000
Oil: 58
CAD: .72

Thanks kcowan!


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Should be interesting as we are nearing the end of the Fed experiment.

Dow: 13,000
TSX: 12,000
Gold: 1,500
Oil: 42.00
CAD: 80.00


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## bumblebee (Jan 15, 2015)

Dow: 15675
TSX: 12001
Gold: 998
Oil: 33.25
CAD: 0.64

Flame away! 2017 will be a great year.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Dow: 15700
tsx: 11400
gold: 900
oil: 41
cad: 0.64


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## NorthKC (Apr 1, 2013)

Dow: 17500
TSX: 11200
Gold: 1010
Oil: 25.00
CAD: 0.57


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## explorer416 (Jun 11, 2010)

Dow: 19450
tsx: 13105
gold: $1305
oil: $56.25
cad: 0.725


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## Siciliano698 (Nov 29, 2010)

Dow: 20,000
TSX: 10,541
Gold: 982
Oil: 25.00
CAD: 58.00 cents say hello to the CAD PESO

Canadian recession along with a 30% housing bubble correction nationwide... and only a start to a bigger bubble about to burst............

Expect American Economy to chug along higher.......


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Siciliano698 said:


> CAD: 58.00 cents say hello to the CAD PESO.


Yet the peso is still at 12.2! It is just the greenback that is out of step.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

DOW: 18,850
TSX: 13,150
Gold: 1,255
Oil: 48.50
CAD: 0.728


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## mars (Mar 11, 2014)

DOW: 16,000
TSX: 15,000
Gold: 1,300
Oil: 70
CAD 0.80

Thought I would take a shot and see how it goes this year.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Reminder!
You have until the markets open on Monday to modify or submit your guesses.
Keith


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

@Beaver101, you are predicting a 50 cent barrel of oil? :eek2:


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

DOW: 15700
TSX: 11855
GOLD: 999
OIL: 22
CAD: 0.58

This is always fun  Thanks again for running it this year Keith!


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

DOW: 12,600
TSX: 9,500
Gold: 950
Oil: 36
CAD: 0.70


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

Dow: 14,000
TSX: 10,000
Gold: 1500
Oil: 35
Cad: 0.60


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

Well, 2 years in a row where I finished in the top 10. Hopefully, my crystal ball gets better this year... highly unlikely though! Thanks for running this, kcowan.

DOW: 18,100
TSX: 12,260
GOLD: 1,150
OIL: 39.5
CAD: .672


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Almost forgot this. 

DOW: 15,800
TSX: 12150
Gold: 995
Oil: 26.5
CAD: 0.615


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

mrPPincer said:


> @Beaver101, you are predicting a 50 cent barrel of oil? :eek2:


I have entered it as $50.1 unless Beav corrects me.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Dow: 14,300
tsx: 10,700
gold: 992
oil: 24.3
cad: 0.64


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I suppose I should document my wild guesses:
DOW: 18000
TSX: 11500
GOLD: 1300
OIL: 28
CAD: 0.65
and I will publish the results tomorrow sometime.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Interesting to see so many predictions for oil sub $25. Time will tell. I look forward to the list kcowan, thanks for running this again.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan said:


> Reminder!
> You have until the markets open on Monday to modify or submit your guesses.
> Keith


and that is Jan 18th not 17th...


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## DesignerDee (Apr 10, 2013)

Here is my blind guess - I mean prediction:

DOW: 18,150
TSX: 13,211
GOLD: 1,213
OIL: 38.55
CAD: 0.7642


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

kcowan said:


> I have entered it as $50.1 unless Beav corrects me.


 ... Oops! Okay, final changes on, 

oil: $51.01
cad: $.5101

Thanks both for catching the boo boo.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Avrex picks,

DOW: 16700
TSX: 12400
GOLD: 1225
OIL: 37.00
CAD: 0.71


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## SpendLessEarnMore (Aug 7, 2013)

Dow: 16,700
tsx: 13200
gold: 1155
oil: $42
cad: $0.75


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## WTTran07 (Dec 31, 2015)

Dow: 16350
Tsx: 12800
Gold: 1100
Oil: 38.00
CAD: .75


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here is the first draft for 2016. Please check for any errors and omissions:

2016 Rankings


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## NorthKC (Apr 1, 2013)

You've entered in gold wrong for me. It should be $1,010, not $10,000. lol


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Good I also fixed sicili CAD to .58


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here are the latest results for 2016. 

2016 Rankings

Early leader is WTTran07.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here are the latest results for 2016. 

2016 Rankings

Early leader is now avrex.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The new leader is now DesignerDee.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Thanks Keith for updating this. Hmmm... 23rd place now for easy-peasy speculation.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Fun stuff...thanks!


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Looks like I'm way off this year, and kinda hope I will be because I really low-balled it this time :torn:

Weighing buying opportunities against a futher extension of this bull market I guess I'd be happy either way


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## WTTran07 (Dec 31, 2015)

Haven't checked this since Jan, I was surprised the indexes would pick up from Feb! 
I'm still believing that there will be a large correction this year.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

New leader is nobleea.

2016 Rankings


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

I predict a major music star will die this year.... maybe bowie.... maybe prince... maybe even haggard....


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Keith, you need to post some rules for this contest o/w all kind of weird predictory postings are going to show up such as ^ :mushroom:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Any and all predictions welcome. Maybe we can expand the contest if enough interest in any particular new forecast elements.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Any and all predictions welcome. Maybe we can expand the contest if enough interest in any particular new forecast elements.


:0 ... also predict there will be talk of an ABBA reunion.....


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

jargey3000 said:


> :0 ... also predict there will be talk of an ABBA reunion.....


jargey, .. awesome!
So there could be epic music when the world goes up in flames, nice!


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

kcowan said:


> New leader is nobleea.
> 
> 2016 Rankings


I like it.

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen....


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

^congrats nobleea


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

jargey3000 said:


> :0 ... also predict there will be talk of an ABBA reunion.....


Predictions of talk don't count because talk is cheap.

If you have the guts to predict an ABBA reunion, I will consider it!


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Predictions of talk don't count because talk is cheap.
> 
> If you have the guts to predict an ABBA reunion, I will consider it!


:upset:


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

This contest has been far more interesting that I would have expected.

Of particular interest to me is how pessimistic I was about pretty much everything, and yet I bought a ton of stuff in February. The February holdings went way up and... came back down to nearly flat. lol!

This confirms my strategy of ignoring the macro factors since it has been repeatedly proven I cannot predict them.


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

nobleea said:


> I like it.
> 
> Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen....


Now you just have to get it to stay there for the next 8 months!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Spudd said:


> Now you just have to get it to stay there for the next 8 months!


So far so good! One down 7 to go! nobleea

2016 Rankings


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

29 of 33. :biggrin:


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Nothing wrong with that - all stock predicting newbees start out like that ... there's still room in the year to move up! ... :rugby:


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

kcowan said:


> So far so good! One down 7 to go! nobleea
> 
> 2016 Rankings


Boom! Keep up the good work, me!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Half way there and nobleea is still leading.

Congratulations!


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Nothing wrong with that - all stock predicting newbees start out like that ... there's still room in the year to move up! ... :rugby:


I started following the stock market in 1984. I don't expect to be able to accurately predict macro factors any time soon.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I find it interesting that the majority of predictions were bearish. Likely reflecting the wider sentiment in January which was also negative. There is a pretty wide delta between the averages and the current values, although 6 months is a long time to go.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

TomB19 said:


> *I started following the stock market in 1984.* I don't expect to be able to accurately predict macro factors any time soon.


 ... that's 32 years of practice and still not even close? LOL .. the art of predictions is difficult.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Finally nobleea has been toppled to 3rd place, replaced by DesignerDee.

2016 Rankings


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

I wonder who has the longest streak for being in first place (month over month) since this contest started?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

nobleea regains the lead!


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

kcowan said:


> nobleea regains the lead!


You can't spell 'awesome' without 'me'.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

nobleea retains the lead!
Awesome!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

nobleea said:


> You can't spell 'a*we*some' without 'me'.


 ...yes you can .. the 'me' is spelled upside down. Congrats ... but still 3 more months!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

nobleea retains the lead once again! Well done.

Latest results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

and as we enter the home stretch, nobleea seems to be unbeatable.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

kcowan said:


> and as we enter the home stretch, nobleea seems to be unbeatable.


AGAIN?!? I thought for sure someone else would take it this month with the crazy markets and changes we've seen particularly south of the border.

I don't think I can hang on for the win.


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

kcowan said:


> Any and all predictions welcome.


I predict that I will lose badly. lol!


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## tombiosis (Dec 18, 2010)

when is this getting an update?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

nobleea said:


> I don't think I can hang on for the win.


Once again nobleea is correct!


tombiosis said:


> when is this getting an update?


Funny you should ask! You are the winner for 2016!
Congratulations to all who had the courage to guess. We all learn from our peers.

Final results

View attachment 13401


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## tombiosis (Dec 18, 2010)

WooHoo!

If ever there was proof positive that investing was like gambling, then me coming first in this contest is indeed proof!
Last year I was almost dead last. 
Hilarious!
:biggrin:
Happy New Year!


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

congrats. :congratulatory:


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

tombiosis said:


> WooHoo!
> 
> If ever there was proof positive that investing was like gambling, then me coming first in this contest is indeed proof!
> Last year I was almost dead last.
> ...


Well done


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

I wasn't last but well humbled, all the same.

Thank you kcowan for administering this.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ +1 :encouragement:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Thanks guys.

Once set up. it is pretty easy to update.
I just wish I could forecast better!


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