# It all comes down to luck (coincidences)



## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Success is where preparation meets opportunity.

An opportunity is a lucky event.

Preparation is the only part we control.

And even if preparation meets opportunity, we don't know what will be its outcome...

Every decision we take, every event that happens... We can develop some wisdom to how we react to such situations, but we never know what will be the outcome...






There's a debate about free will and fate.

I believe we have free will, but that doesn't mean we control our fate. Whatever decision you take, you won't ever know if it was a good or a bad decision. Luck, fate, will determine what is the outcome of the decision you took out of free will. And add to this all the events that will occur on which you have absolutely no control. Just luck or bad luck.

And you may believe that you deserve your good fortune because of your hard work, but that's just luck. Even your hard-working personality is just luck. You never chose in which country you would be born, you never chose who would be your parents. You didn't chose how you would be educated as a child. You didn't chose what mix of genetics you'd have. And you've build your personality on a mix of lucky events : your location, your parents, your family, all the random events that happened to you throughout your life.

If you believe that all your hard work got you where you are now, that's just hindsight bias and confirmation bias. As humans, we need to believe that we have control.

We had no control on how we were shaped during our childhood.

We work on our willpower, that's the best we can do, that's the most we can do to help our feeling of control upon our fate.

But even our willpower is a mind-body reaction and there was a series of events that affected its development and its current state.


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## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

Luck, for sure. But we can control our luck to a certain extent.
I say it comes down to making the right decisions. 
Bad decisions will often lead to a 'bad luck' outcome. Make the right choices in life and "good luck" will be by your side. 
Live positive.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Yeahbut.

So, you're in a situation. 
You can take action to make it better, so why not take action to make it better.
The alternative is to not take action and not make it better, which is dumb.

What that action is, is up to you. I'd suggest in most cases invest your energy in the activities with the highest risk adjusted return.

Also there is an interesting thing, those with positive attitudes who think they're lucky and opportunity is out there tend to see more opportunities and have better luck.

We live in a time where there is an unprecedented ability to make things better. If you're in Canada, you're among the luckiest people in all of human history, and you have amazing opportunities in front of you.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Mortgage u/w said:


> I say it comes down to making the right decisions.


You don't know it's the right decision beforehand.



MrMatt said:


> You can take action to make it better, so why not take action to make it better.


You don't know if it'll make it better.

You simply believe it to be better once you compare to the past.

Each decision leads to a butterfly effect.


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## pwm (Jan 19, 2012)

Good post. I've thought about this a lot recently. Perhaps it's more natural to do so when one ages. There are so many things in life that are completely beyond our control. So many things happen seemingly at random. I've done well in life but much of that success is attributable to events beyond my control. For example, being born in Canada to educated caring parents at a time when there were limitless possibilities, having had good health my whole life are things that were all just pure good fortune.

It's not always a matter of good choices. Blind luck plays a bigger part than we like to think. For example it always irritated me when people would say things like "You're lucky you have a good company pension". Lucky? I chose that job partly because of the pension and benefits and dragged myself into it for 35 years to get that pension. Was it luck or good choices and perseverance that got me my pension? Then I think of people with more abilities than me who chose to work at Nortel thinking that was a secure job with a great future and an excellent pension plan and they ended up losing their jobs and their pension so it's fair to say that chance plays a bigger role in life than we like to think.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> Also there is an interesting thing, those with positive attitudes who think they're lucky and opportunity is out there tend to see more opportunities and have better luck.


I'm not dismissing the positive attitude and all of the opportunities. I work towards high willpower, always positive and seeing an amazing amount of opportunities.

But even with an amazing amount of opportunities, the outcome is unknown. Worse, it can lead to the paradox of choice.

And how come am I positive, never stressed out, always accepting my decisions, seeing opportunities? Because of a series of uncontrolled events that shaped me that way. Still comes down to luck.

And because I know that I can't know before hand if a decision is good or bad, the most important thing to me that helps me with life is to fully accept every single decision I take before taking that decision.

Guess what. I didn't want a child. I've met a girl who wanted a child. Now I have a child. Who knows what was the better decision. I could've stick to the idea of not having a child and have a wonderful life which would've been totally different than the one I'm currently having. The important aspect is only to accept the decision that we take and to see the outcome as a positive outcome, no matter what it leads to.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> I'm not dismissing the positive attitude and all of the opportunities. I work towards high willpower, always positive and seeing an amazing amount of opportunities.
> 
> But even with an amazing amount of opportunities, the outcome is unknown. Worse, it leads to the paradox of choice.
> 
> ...


You need to separate the decision from the outcome.
People suck at this.

You can make a bad decision and have a good result, you can make a good decision and have a bad result.
My belief is that if you consistently make good decisions, you'll have more good outcomes than bad, and your situation will get better. I think this holds true for all.
Plus it's completely within your control. Your decisions are actually the only thing that is.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> You need to separate the decision from the outcome.
> People suck at this.
> 
> You can make a bad decision and have a good result, you can make a good decision and have a bad result.
> ...


Well, I am totally separating the decision from the outcome, you are actually missing a point where you aren't fully separating the decision from the outcome.

Why? You say it : "if you consistently make *good* decisions".

The adjective "good" implies the outcome. You don't know that beforehand.

You don't consistently make *good *decisions. You consistently make decisions, *period*. Not good, not bad. Then you find out if it was good or bad, but only from hindsight bias and confirmation bias of what *you believe* would've been the outcome of not taking that decision (taking a different decision).

At the exact moment when you make the decision, it is neither good nor bad. And the outcome is neither good nor bad. It only depends of your attitude towards the outcome.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

There are no such things as "good decisions" and "bad decisions" and there are no such things as "good outcomes" and "bad outcomes". There are only "decisions" and "outcomes".

Ok, before someone brings out this kind of example, I'm not talking about those "decisions" like if you "decide" to jump out of a 3-storey building, obviously you'll hurt yourself pretty badly or die and it's certainly a bad decision with a bad outcome. I'm not talking about such kind of "decisions". And even that, when looking at the bigger picture, maybe that event will have shape some other people into something "good". Maybe the child of that person will start something huge that will help thousands of people to prevent suicide attempts. Or maybe you won't die and it'll shape you differently. Who knows.

And anyways, what you got there? A series of events that shaped you and you had no control over them.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

A door on the left.......a door in the middle........a door on the right. Which one to enter when you don't know what lies on the other side of the doors ?

I also sought a job that paid well and had a good DB pension, and it took years before an opportunity opened up. But the opportunity had nothing to do with all those years of looking and applying for jobs with a wide range of companies. The opportunity came at a party, at the home of the nurse who worked at my current job introduced me to her husband. He was an executive at GM and asked me if I wanted a job. I said........oh yea, and a week later I was working at GM. I was working there before I even filled out an application or a medical.

My brother bounced around from job to job, and I asked around my work if they were hiring. They said for him to fill out an application and he got hired. We both retired from GM.

There were many long lineups for employment at GM locations when they were hiring.......and we just fell into the jobs.

We bought numerous homes and didn't make any money on them to speak of. We lost money on one home. We didn't have the opportunity to earn "free money" from our home ownership because the local market just didn't provide it.

We might like to think we are in control and can decide our own fate........but I don't think that is the reality for most people.

All we can do is keep rowing in the right direction hoping to get to our destination.


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## prisoner24601 (May 27, 2018)

Yes decisions and outcomes but the other way around. Success comes from deciding an outcome, believing it is possible (often when others don't or tell you to play it safe) and sticking with it as choices present themselves, dealing with set-backs and finding new ways. If you simply make decisions based on opportunities that life presents you then you truly are just drifting along and could end up anywhere. Fortune favours the brave!


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Even when people are given the same circumstance and luck they don't come to the same outcomes

While my teenage peers were pursuing drugs, alcohol and video games I was shoveling cow **** for $5.75/hour. I chose to spend summers and holidays working and developing myself. My siblings and peers had very similar opportunities with very different results. Now I earn above average salary and they buy lottery tickets.

Halfway through my career I shared an office with a guy who had the same education, earned the same salary. Even though we enjoyed the same time on the same hobbies he spent more on those hobbies while I pursued appreciating assets. I have financial independence and he will work another 20 years

On deployments we end up playing the same games with the same crowd over and over. Even though all the games have such a strong element of luck the same people consistently prevail. The difference seems to be that some people manage risk of bad luck and prepare to take advantage of good luck.

Some people spend their spare time consuming entertainment and unhealthy lifestyles while others spend their time improving whatever their situation happens to be. While I am learning they are complaining about bad luck. I succeed out of relentless pursuit of opportunity. If you just sit at home waiting for the lottery good luck.

I know people who succeeded from the worst situations imaginable. Their peers who say "as god wills" suffer from "bad luck"


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Why? You say it : "if you consistently make *good* decisions".
> 
> The adjective "good" implies the outcome. You don't know that beforehand.


Not necessarily, but we can predict many outcomes, and you can act accordingly.



> You don't consistently make *good *decisions.


No, but I try to.



> At the exact moment when you make the decision, it is neither good nor bad. And the outcome is neither good nor bad. It only depends of your attitude towards the outcome.


I disagree.
I could drive down the street in my lane, or I could veer into oncoming traffic.
I contend that driving safely down my lane is likely a good decision and likely to lead to a good outcome.
Similarly driving into oncoming traffic is likely a bad decision and likely to lead to a bad outcome.

Of course this depends on your definition of good and bad. I purposely chose a decision where the decision to outcome is very clear.
Other decisions might not be as clear, but I think trying to make good decisions in general.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> Not necessarily, but we can predict many outcomes, and you can act accordingly.


You cannot.

Some of my major decisions :

Go to the university or take a job right away after high school with an apprenticeship?
Stay with my current girlfriend and have a child, or go separate ways and don't have a child (which was my initial decision)?
Spend 6-figures on renovation to hopefully improve our quality of life in our home or keep that money invested in the market or spend that money on activities throughout the next years?
Change job or not? Is it worth it or is it just me?
Spend my time on a side hustle during the evenings and weekends to try to earn more money to travel or spend my time with my wife and kid because I already earn enough anyways?
Do I accept this promotion or do I already have enough responsibilities?



MrMatt said:


> I disagree.
> I could drive down the street in my lane, or I could veer into oncoming traffic.
> I contend that driving safely down my lane is likely a good decision and likely to lead to a good outcome.
> Similarly driving into oncoming traffic is likely a bad decision and likely to lead to a bad outcome.


I already answered those examples here :



MrBlackhill said:


> Ok, before someone brings out this kind of example, I'm not talking about those "decisions" like if you "decide" to jump out of a 3-storey building, obviously you'll hurt yourself pretty badly or die and it's certainly a bad decision with a bad outcome. I'm not talking about such kind of "decisions". And even that, when looking at the bigger picture, maybe that event will have shape some other people into something "good". Maybe the child of that person will start something huge that will help thousands of people to prevent suicide attempts. Or maybe you won't die and it'll shape you differently. Who knows.
> 
> And anyways, what you got there? A series of events that shaped you and you had no control over them.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

I also believe that good luck comes to people who work hard and work smart, are able to recognize an opportunity and act on it, are flexible, are life long learners, and those willing to take a calculated risk.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

@MrMatt; You do not seem to be getting it. There are decisions in which you have a measure of control and that can be a good decision or a bad decision... as in your driving your vehicle down the street or deciding not to jump off a 3 storey building. The further you move from being in a position of control, the more it is a crap shoot and pure luck. For example, you make a decision on whether to buy a stock or not based on your belief/opinion/gut feel on what you think you know today about its track record to date and what you think its future is. Your decision making may improve the odds of success, but you have zero control in how it actually plays out. Human beings have many failings and overconfidence is one of them.

Added later: I made a decision some 55 years ago to become an engineer on the premise of an opportunity to use my interests, skills and training to have an interesting and challenging career with good pay, rather than become a rancher or a labourer or something else. It certainly improved my odds of success but maybe I might have become a truck driver and parlayed that into a long haul freight company with hundreds of trucks worth a fortune. All one can do is attempt to improve the odds. It will play out as it plays out.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

"If you believe that all your hard work got you where you are now, that's just hindsight bias and confirmation bias."

Sure, that's a philosphy, and maybe I agree with it somewhat, but even if I agree with it 100%, the problem is that 9/10 times when someone says this... the very next words are "*...so you should pay even more taxes than you do already"*

If you believe that luck plays only a part and that we have control of our lives and proper free-will, then taxing for the purpose of re-distributing is stealing from those who earned it.

If you believe that it's all just luck in the end, then whatever outcomes happen will happen, and there's no stopping it... Which means the people that want to tax you are actually no more likely to make better choices for taxing and spending than random chance... which means they are either delusional or frauds. It's only random luck that they are in control, and it's only random luck that their ideas may do anything good or bad. So if you think that it all comes down to luck, inviting the state into your life to take your money and make decisions of what you can and can't do, is a one-way ticket straight to tyranny.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

peterk said:


> "If you believe that all your hard work got you where you are now, that's just hindsight bias and confirmation bias."
> 
> Sure, that's a philosphy, and maybe I agree with it somewhat, but even if I agree with it 100%, the problem is that 9/10 times when someone says this... the very next words are "*...so you should pay even more taxes than you do already"*
> 
> ...


Because humans needs an incentive to work harder or take on more responsibilities or more risk or a boring job. And that incentive is money. And because supply and demand will create a wage gap.

But it has to be balanced. Too much of a wage gap leads to a disaster. But no wage gap would also lead to a disaster.

If everybody would have the same income, everybody could do their dream job without questioning about how much it pays. But the world of people's interests is not balanced with the world of what's required for a healthy and functional society.

Some people are paid higher because of pure luck and some because they are willing and capable of taking the higher paid jobs, but that will and capability is also luck.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> @MrMatt; You do not seem to be getting it.


Not really, I get it, I just disagree.


> There are decisions in which you have a measure of control and that can be a good decision or a bad decision... as in your driving your vehicle down the street or deciding not to jump off a 3 storey building.


Yes

[/quote]
The further you move from being in a position of control, the more it is a crap shoot and pure luck. 
[/quote]
Yes



> For example, you make a decision on whether to buy a stock or not based on your belief/opinion/gut feel on what you think you know today about its track record to date and what you think its future is. Your decision making may improve the odds of success, but you have zero control in how it actually plays out. Human beings have many failings and overconfidence is one of them.


Sure, but if you're buying stock in a company because some guy told you it was a good deal, vs seeing a record of consistent profits.
You also have your decision to investigate as far as you want. 
Deciding to investigate and see what the merits are gives you a more informed decision.
Sure there is a LOT outside your control. But there is also much that is.



> Added later: I made a decision some 55 years ago to become an engineer on the premise of an opportunity to use my interests, skills and training to have an interesting and challenging career with good pay, rather than become a rancher or a labourer or something else. It certainly improved my odds of success but maybe I might have become a truck driver and parlayed that into a long haul freight company with hundreds of trucks worth a fortune. All one can do is attempt to improve the odds. It will play out as it plays out.


Exactly, you improved your odds, that's a good decision.
Deciding to sell crack would have reduced your odds and that would have been (IMO) a bad decision.

My position is that while there is a lot that you can't control, there are things you can, and making good decisions will improve your chances of getting good results. 
Sure luck is a factor, but if you look at all the rich and supersuccessful today, most of them were lucky, no doubt, but they all put in a lot of work, and made a lot of good decisions.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I think using 'good' and 'bad' are the wrong adjectives. Perhaps it is 'informed' decisions or similar.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

peterk said:


> "If you believe that all your hard work got you where you are now, that's just hindsight bias and confirmation bias."


That's simply not true.
I wouldn't be where I am without hard work.

I don't know any successful people who didn't work hard.
I know very few "failures" who did work hard.

Sure luck is a factor, but in my mind it's clearly a mixture of good luck and hard work that leads to success.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> I think using 'good' and 'bad' are the wrong adjectives. Perhaps it is 'informed' decisions or similar.


You can make an informed decision on using heroin, that doesn't mean it's a good decision.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

MrMatt said:


> You can make an informed decision on using heroin, that doesn't mean it's a good decision.


Argue as you wish. I'm sure you believe your position is a 'good' one.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

It has been my observation that the happiest people in life are those who try to make the best decisions at the time and accept the results without ruminating about the decisions later.

If one believes they have maintained control over their lives through their decisions, and things don't work out as they had planned........they can be bitter and angry at themselves.

You make decisions based on what you believe will be the best outcome.....but luck and opportunity will also have their say in how it all ends up.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

MrMatt: Real life example... A relative buys a very inexpensive non-refundable ticket more than a month ago to fly from Montreal to the West. Was that a good decision or a bad decision?

No one knows until the time comes when the travel is undertaken or not. As it turns out, the travel is not going to occur due to situations beyond his control that could not have been foreseen at the time of his decision. This is a case of bad luck outside his control, not because of a bad decision taken at the time. At the time of the decision, I am sure most would have thought it was a good decision to buy an inexpensive non-refundable ticket to save buckets of money.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

No plan survives contact with the enemy

This seems to be what the unlucky people are missing. Rather than sticking to a plan or situation as things go south you need to constantly re-evaluate new information and adapt. It's unlucky if you worked at Nortel but you have lots of time to evaluate the signs and make changes. It's unlucky if you live in Toronto where the cost of living outpaces salary growth but you have lots of time to move. Everyone has bad luck. Most people accept insh'allah. Some constantly reevaluate the situation and adapt as best they can.

You can prepare for bad luck or you can make excuses.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

AltaRed said:


> MrMatt: Real life example... A relative buys a very inexpensive non-refundable ticket more than a month ago to fly from Montreal to the West. Was that a good decision or a bad decision?


Poor risk management

There are many ways to get trip cancellation insurance from credit cards and travel agencies etc. When buying a non-refundable ticket you literally accept the risk if you read the fine print

I don't insure anything I can afford to lose and I know there is a risk I will have to replace it


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

AltaRed said:


> MrMatt: Real life example... A relative buys a very inexpensive non-refundable ticket more than a month ago to fly from Montreal to the West. Was that a good decision or a bad decision?
> 
> No one knows until the time comes when the travel is undertaken or not. As it turns out, the travel is not going to occur due to situations beyond his control that could not have been foreseen at the time of his decision. This is a case of bad luck outside his control, not because of a bad decision taken at the time. At the time of the decision, I am sure most would have thought it was a good decision to buy an inexpensive non-refundable ticket to save buckets of money.


I don't know if it was a good or bad decision for them.
It really matters on a number of factors.

Myself I've typically bought non-refundable tickets, because the cost savings was significant enough to justify the low risk. For me, that would have been a good decision, albeit with a negative outcome.

It's like life insurance, I think sufficient insurance for dependents to manage hardship is a good decision. Insuring beyond that is a bad decision.

Just to expand, I think it's a good idea to buy products off highly rated ebay sellers. I've saved so much money from the lower prices I can easily get scammed by a few thousand dollars and I'd still be ahead. To be quite honest I have lost some money off ebay deals, it was a bit annoying, but what's a few hundred in losses vs several thousand in savings?

I would suggest that's a pattern of good decisions, and an overall good outcome, despite a few negative results along the way.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> Because humans needs an incentive to work harder or take on more responsibilities or more risk or a boring job. And that incentive is money. And because supply and demand will create a wage gap.
> 
> But it has to be balanced. Too much of a wage gap leads to a disaster. But no wage gap would also lead to a disaster.
> 
> ...


That was entirely not my point.

If you are committed to the philosophy that luck is the primary driver of outcomes, then the natural conclusion regarding government is that everyone in government is only there by luck, not because they have good ideas or competence, and any ideas that they might have are just randomly as result of their upbringing. So since they are no more qualified than you or anyone else, then government should have minimal and limited control over your life, and be restricted heavily from taxing you, because what good are they going to do with it that isn't just related to randomness and luck?

The assault on "free will", illogically combined with the celebration of "informed decision making", being put forth by academia and mainstream philosophy is to corral the general populous into thinking exactly:

"I don't deserve everything that comes to me and I acknowledge that much of my good outcomes are from luck, and my bad outcomes can't be avoided --- but I don't think luck influences every facet of humanity by so much that there aren't still smart people, in the government and other halls of power, who don't know what to do or which are the right decisions to make for our society. So I will happily give them my money, my obedience, and my vote."


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The tens of thousands of people who lost their businesses due to covid should have better prepared themselves for a government shutdown of their business due to a global pandemic ?

When you use real life examples it is easy to see how much luck is involved in success and failure.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Businesses that could adapt to the pandemic made more profit than before. Those that had no plan for bad times and took no action to adapt waited for handouts instead

GM manufacturing vehicles in Canada for example makes no sense. The company went bankrupt during the last crisis and the only reason it still exists is to give Americans and Canadians jobs thanks to government handouts. Most manufacturing is moving to other countries for many reasons. The writing was on the wall for decades.

If I assessed this even on the surface I would be looking for something else rather than accepting it as fate. The mentality that you can't change is your own problem.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> You can prepare for bad luck or you can make excuses.





sags said:


> The tens of thousands of people who lost their businesses due to covid should have better prepared themselves for a government shutdown of their business due to a global pandemic ?


Exactly, that' why some Americans have a bunker with 2 years of food in it.

To every other person, why aren't you prepared? Why don't you have a bunker ready for WW III with 2 years of food in it?



m3s said:


> This seems to be what the unlucky people are missing. Rather than sticking to a plan or situation as things go south you need to constantly re-evaluate new information and adapt. It's unlucky if you worked at Nortel but you have lots of time to evaluate the signs and make changes. It's unlucky if you live in Toronto where the cost of living outpaces salary growth but you have lots of time to move. Everyone has bad luck. Most people accept insh'allah. Some constantly reevaluate the situation and adapt as best they can.


Well, I always adapt as best as I can. And I am lucky to have that kind of personality and that all the uncontrolled life events that I went through helped shaping me that way. Still comes down to luck.

Some people have bad luck after bad luck. Sick child, then job loss, then depression, then burnt house, then divorce/separation, then car accident, then... I guess it was all their fault and lack of preparation.

Some people have good luck after good luck, but they don't see it, they believe it's just normal, it's natural, it's how most people went through life. No.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> Businesses that could adapt


They were lucky to find the right idea at the right time and that it worked out. You have to act fast and right. It's almost like having to write a book starting right now and it must be a best seller within the next 3 months.

How many people try to adapt in life and it doesn't work out? How many business idea didn't work out?

People believe they can be ready for every situation. It's impossible. That's extreme survivalism and that's not even enough.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> Some people have good luck after good luck, but they don't see it, they believe it's just normal, it's natural, it's how most people went through life. No.


sags got his job randomly at a party. I studied my job options for years before I applied. Even then I've always thought about what I would do if it doesn't work out

I studied an investment for years before making a fortune on it. A colleagued decided to yolo into the same investment with no research of their own and lost half. I have one of the safest pensions in the world but even though it is indexed to inflation I think inflation is a real risk.

Am I building a bunker with 2 years of food? No because that is just poor risk management. Am I investing everything into real estate? No because real estate can't be sold quickly if things change. That's good risk management in my opinion.

Maybe it is just a matter of personalities? I still think everyone has bad luck but some adapt better than others


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Sears could have become amazon

GM could have become Tesla

Blockbuster could have become Netflix

But they all had bad luck


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Just think of the poor frog.

If he been born with wings he could be soaring with the eagles. Instead he has to sit around on lilly pads eating flies all day.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

_GM could have become Tesla _

Poor example there. GM is earning billions of dollars and Tesla is losing money on their vehicle sales.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> some adapt better than others


Some are lucky to know how to adapt and to have that kind of personality. I'm part of those lucky people. I'm lucky. We don't have the same personalities and we can't shape our personality. How our personality evolves depends not only on ourselves, but on all the events that we went through.



m3s said:


> No because that is just poor risk management.


Yup, well, it's your own opinion about what is poor risk management. It sounds like poor risk management when the bad luck doesn't happen, but it sounds like being well prepared when the bad luck happens. Also, I buy 100% equities because I believe it to be the best risk-reward. It's not true for everyone. I'm lucky I'm able to go through the drawdowns.

You're a lot into crypto. You believe it to be the best risk-reward. You're making highly informed decisions, but as of today you can't know it's the best risk-reward option.

Some other people can be as informed as you about crypto, but can't live through a -80% drop. You have that luck. They don't.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> Sears could have become amazon
> 
> GM could have become Tesla
> 
> ...


Exactly, it all comes down to luck.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> You're a lot into crypto. You believe it to be the best risk-reward. You're making highly informed decisions, but as of today you can't know it's the best risk-reward option.


That's why I constantly re-evaluate my situation and have a backup plan for things I consider risky.



MrBlackhill said:


> Some other people can be as informed as you about crypto, but can't live through a -80% drop. You have that luck. They don't.


I didn't have that luck 20 years ago. I had to prepare for it for a long time.

Insh'Allah.. As the plane glides towards the mountain and the pilot leaves it all up to god

GM has decades to change course but they chose to be like Blockbuster instead

Some will say it was bad luck when they fail


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> That's why I constantly re-evaluate my situation and have a backup plan for things I consider risky.


Bad luck by definition is when something that has a low probability of happening, happens. When something not risky turns south. When something risky turns worse than you thought and faster than you can adapt and react.


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## MyCatMittens (Oct 20, 2015)

My experience is that those that are unhappy with their life choices over inflate "luck", and those that are often extremely "successful" underestimate "luck". I attribute 50% of my success to hard work, but try and recognize that the other 50% was luck (born in Canada, loving and encouraging parents, upper/middle class family, etc).


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

And have you (m3s) seen the little 2-minute video in my first post?

Nothing that he could control.

Even funnier... It starts with a horse that escaped... Imagine if he was better prepared and had great fences that wouldn't allow the horse to escape... Well the story would've turned out that his son would've gone to war... And maybe die at the front line.

Butterfly effect.

The extent of our luck is extremely complex and infinite.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MyCatMittens said:


> My experience is that those that are unhappy with their life choices over inflate "luck", and those that are often extremely "successful" underestimate "luck". I attribute 50% of my success to hard work, but try and recognize that the other 50% was luck (born in Canada, loving and encouraging parents, upper/middle class family, etc).


Honestly doesn't matter if you're success is 80% luck and 20% work, you have no real control over luck, but you have control over work.

So why does it matter, working hard and making good decisions can make things better, and you can do that.

I also think that if you truly believe work matters, you'll do the work, and have success.
While if you think it's all luck, why bother working? So you won't get success.

Sure there are outliers, but look around the world, how many successful people didn't work?
Which Olympian skipped out on the work part, despite their phenomenal luck?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> And have you (m3s) seen the little 2-minute video in my first post?
> 
> Nothing that he could control.


So this thread boils down to

The government should clips all wings so that the frog is equal. Don't mind the flies are all gone now. Ins'Allah

The Chinese neighbours think wild horses should be enslaved yet don't want to contribute to defense of their own freedom. Ins'Allah

Over 10 years of building medium of exchange that is simply finite is extremely complex infinite luck. Ins'Allah

Comparison is the thief of joy


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

I have no problem paying taxes. We have been in the top incremental tax rate for many years. It is a small price to pay for living here and enjoying what we have.

We have traveled frequently-mostly international. It is always so good to land back in Canada....even if it is in Toronto!

Many people simply do not realize how fortunate we are to be born in Canada or live in Canada. That alone gives us an advantage over most of the people in the world.

There is always room for improvements but the whiners, the bitchers,. the complainers do not realize how good we all have it. 

Alas many of the refugees that come to Canada and immigrants do realize it. That is why so many realize the opportunities afforded to them, work hard, and move forward in a way that some of who are born here do not.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

ian said:


> I have no problem paying taxes. We have been in the top incremental tax rate for many years. It is a small price to pay for living here and enjoying what we have.


I would have less concerns with paying taxes if they were being used properly.
It's bad enough the massive amounts of money being wasted, but what I truly can't get over is how they use it to hurt my fellow Canadians.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

MrMatt said:


> I would have less concerns with paying taxes if they were being used properly.
> It's bad enough the massive amounts of money being wasted, but what I truly can't get over is how they use it to hurt my fellow Canadians.


This is simply an aspect of public finance. No different than other countries. It is also very subjective. A waste of money to me may not be a waste to another person. It will always be there, just like graft. Part of the cost for our democracy. Regrettable but far less than the graft, theft, etc, in non democratic countries. Look at Russia...it has been in the process of being looted for the past 15 years. Soon there will not be anything left to loot!

IF you think large corporations are always perfectly managed and do not make huge financial mistakes or waste money from time to time then yo are kidding yourself. They do.


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## MyCatMittens (Oct 20, 2015)

MrMatt said:


> Honestly doesn't matter if you're success is 80% luck and 20% work, you have no real control over luck, but you have control over work.
> 
> So why does it matter, working hard and making good decisions can make things better, and you can do that.
> I also think that if you truly believe work matters, you'll do the work, and have success.
> While if you think it's all luck, why bother working? So you won't get success.


Because I believe positive outcomes are a result of good luck and/or action. I have worked very hard in life (and I'd like to think I have been successful), but I'd be foolish to believe I didn't start on 3rd base.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

If people could identify where the supposed massive amounts of money are being wasted, it would add some credibility to their blanket statements.

It is a popular refrain from political opposition parties, but whenever they get elected into office the easy "savings" seem to elude them.

I think it has a "cry wolf" sound to it that caused voters to stop listening to decades ago.

Invariably when it has been tried, the "solution" is to download the costs onto another level of government and claim mission accomplished.

The public has become educated to how that works and know it is no solution at all.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

If you really want to be thankful that you live in Canada dial up CNN politics on the web.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Suckers believe in luck. Winners believe in odds. Have you ever heard of the Bolita or numbers lottery? Pick the right 3 digit number and win $600 for every $1 you bet. The true odds are 1 in 1000. The people who run the lottery know this, most of the ticket buyers don't know or don't care. Guess which group drives Cadillacs?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Suckers believe in luck. Winners believe in odds. Have you ever heard of the Bolita or numbers lottery? Pick the right 3 digit number and win $600 for every $1 you bet. The true odds are 1 in 1000. The people who run the lottery know this, most of the ticket buyers don't know or don't care. Guess which group drives Cadillacs?


Yeah well that's just basic maths that has a well-defined statistical outcome. Lottery is a plain simple scam. But in practice, in life, when you make a decision, you don't know the possible outcomes and you don't know the odds of each outcome. It's much more complex than the basic maths involved in lottery.

Even if any educated person knows that lottery is a scam to enrich the lottery organiser, does that mean people won't play? No. Try this. Say the richest person on Earth has $200B. There's 9 billion people all willing to buy a lottery ticket for that worldwide lottery made by a lottery organiser. The ticket costs only $100 for a chance to win $400B - twice as much as the current richest person on Earth. There will be only 1 winner out of the 9 billion. Would you play it? Many would because even if the odds of winning is super low, it's better than not buying the ticket. At the end, who will be the richest person on Earth? The lottery organiser.


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## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

ian said:


> I have no problem paying taxes. *We have been in the top incremental tax rate for many years.* It is a small price to pay for living here and enjoying what we have.
> 
> We have traveled frequently-mostly international. It is always so good to land back in Canada....even if it is in Toronto!
> 
> ...


Your high degree of success may be causing you to overrate hard work as a factor. Don't worry, that just makes you human. It's exactly the same as the poor/unsuccessful people who overrate the luck of those who are successful. Those of us who are somewhere in between can more easily see the importance of both hard work and luck, not to mention a myriad of other factors. Of course, there will always be outliers... people who come from poverty and are able to become billionaires. On the flip side, there will also be people who start at third base, work hard and do everything by the book, but still end up being unsuccessful.

Hard work has its place, but I think imagination and being open to new ideas is just as important today. The world is changing faster than many people can keep up with. You could work hard every day, but five years down the road your job could be eliminated, and you might find yourself with no marketable skills, competing for jobs with people who are vastly more qualified. All because you were too busy working hard to notice the world was leaving you behind.

Actually, immigrants and refugees earn less than native-born Canadians, on average. I'm not sure I'd call them unlucky, though. Many are actually content to work menial jobs and live with large extended families, which allows them to attain a relatively high standard of living. I happen to live in a neighbourhood that is predominantly immigrants. The majority of them own their houses, but often have four or five people contributing to the household. Contrast that to native-born Canadians who are generally expected to leave the family home in their 20's. And if they can't afford a home despite making a six-figure income, they're told they just need to work harder.

There are more important factors than where someone was born -- such as upbringing, personality, physical and mental abilities, and illnesses including depression, etc.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

nathan79 said:


> Your high degree of success may be causing you to overrate hard work as a factor.


What are you basing this on?
Luck is a huge factor, but you can't control it, so why focus on it? It's a waste of energy.



> Those of us who are somewhere in between can more easily see the importance of both hard work and luck, not to mention a myriad of other factors. Of course, there will always be outliers... people who come from poverty and are able to become billionaires. On the flip side, there will also be people who start at third base, work hard and do everything by the book, but still end up being unsuccessful.


You need luck and hard work.
There are statistically incredibly few people who end up successful without hard work.
Even lottery winners who don't put in the work, and make bad decisions end up unsuccessful.

Luck alone won't do it.
Hard work alone won't do it.



> Hard work has its place, but I think imagination and being open to new ideas is just as important today.


Having ideas is just fine, but if you don't do the work, you won't get anything.



> Actually, immigrants and refugees earn less than native-born Canadians, on average. I'm not sure I'd call them unlucky, though.


I'd suggest that they're lucky actually.
Compare them to the peer group that didn't immigrate. They're likely doing better.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> There are statistically incredibly few people who end up successful without hard work.


And even fewer people who end up successful without a great amount of luck.

You know, we tend to overestimate how much hard work we do compared to others and we tend to underestimate for much hard work others do compared to us.

It's the egocentric bias.

During the COVID pandemic, nearly half of men said they did most of the homeschooling, but only 3% of women agree. What's wrong here?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> And even fewer people who end up successful without a great amount of luck.


No I disagree.
I don't think there are any people who end up successful without hard work AND luck.
Successful people are those who worked hard and had luck. You won't be successful without both.

But you're missing the real point.
You don't control luck, you do control hard work and good decisions. 
Without the work, you won't have the success.



> You know, we tend to overestimate how much hard work we do compared to others and we tend to underestimate for much hard work others do compared to us.


Some do, some don't
I know people that perpetually underestimate the amount they contribute.



> It's the egocentric bias.


Yes, this is what happens when people assume everyone is like them.



> During the COVID pandemic, nearly half of men said they did most of the homeschooling, but only 3% of women agree. What's wrong here?


Bad study?
I know couples where the men did most, and where the women did most.

Could be that both parties have a tendancy to overstate their importance.
Also you're not clear with what the women were agreeing with.

1. In their situation when the man claimed to have done most of the work?
1b. In their situation that the man claimed the woman did most of the work and they disagreed?

2. That almost half of men did most of the work, which is clearly overt sexism on the part of the women.


Also what is "nearly"


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The biggest advantage financially is starting out with wealth. There is no work or luck involved with creating greater wealth from existing wealth.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> The biggest advantage financially is starting out with wealth. There is no work or luck involved with creating greater wealth from existing wealth.


Yes there is.
Look at the lottery winners who end up bankrupt.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

All a wealthy person has to do is buy assets and watch them grow in value. All they have to do is not be stupid or greedy......which is neither luck nor work.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> I don't think there are any people who end up successful without hard work AND luck.


True, but the hard work is the tiny part and luck is the bigger part.

I was raised on a farm. My stepfather worked 85h/week, 365 days/year, took 1 week vacation every 8+ years. 40 years later he's now retired, so he sold and now he's a millionaire. As a kid and teenager, I've helped out, working at the farm 40h/week during school and 85-100h/week during summers. Until I understood that this hard work would get me nowhere else than being a successful farmer like my stepfather. But having no free time for decades is not my definition of successful life, unless it's your passion and vocation. It wasn't mine. But, lucky me, I was good at school, so I easily got my engineering degree. And, lucky me, I was good at doing the right thing to get promotions. I didn't have to work hard, I didn't have to work the full 40h/week, I just had to show what my superiors liked to see and to behave how they liked, smoke and mirrors. And now I'm making 6 figures working never more than 37.5h/week, so I have the free time that I wanted, which fits my definition of success. The hard work barely helped me. Luck helped me, because I'm lucky to be intelligent and wise.

Have you ever noticed that some people are successful and get promoted only because they are... charismatic, confident and good sellers? They are lucky to have that personally trait. I've seen so many people who are actually pretty bad - or just average - at doing their job and working hard, but they are charismatic and they are good at selling themselves and being confident of their ideas and opinions. But in fact, their ideas are bad, they don't know what they're doing and they are bullsh*ting while selling themselves.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

I've had some really good luck that I couldn't capitalize on because I wasn't prepared for it. Most don't seem to be self aware of this

People who wallow and make excuses of poor luck are also being egocentric themselves. They dwell on other's good fortune while blind to their struggles. They don't focus on their own situation and prepare for their own opportunities. The majority definitely settle for mediocracy whereas the outliers are determined to struggle and sacrifice things you don't see in preparation

If I was back in school now I would be diagnosed with something that wasn't well know then. I would be labeled and given accommodations to be more equal. I'm far more successful instead because I had to focus on what I personally can do well rather than compare to others good fortune and try to do what works for them. I had to survive rather than compare

The winners of a board game capitalize on their own given opportunities. This takes patience, preparation, determination. Everybody has good and bad luck


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> Have you ever noticed that some people are successful and get promoted only because they are... charismatic, confident and good sellers?


You are focusing on other's strengths instead of exploiting your own strengths and developing your own weaknesses so it doesn't limit you

Elon Musk is not charismatic or a good seller. He is painfully awkward and bullied through school. He still found a way to exploit his strengths and good fortunes rather than dwell on his own deficiencies

Stop comparing to others and take accountability for your own situation


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> You are focusing on other's strengths instead of exploiting your own strengths and developing your own weaknesses so it doesn't limit you
> 
> Elon Musk is not charismatic or a good seller. He is painfully awkward and bullied through school. He still found a way to exploit his strengths and good fortunes rather than dwell on his own deficiencies
> 
> Stop comparing to others and take accountability for your own situation


Musk was lucky to be born in a wealthy family and to be born very intelligent. And he has something - maybe charisma is not the right word - but otherwise why would he have all those fanboys? And you think Musk is not good at selling his ideas? Why TSLA jumped 700% last year? Why crypto jumps on every single Musk tweet? You believe he's not good at being influential?

There are literally thousands of super brilliant engineers out there. Just look at all the projects of those who made a YouTube channel. How come they aren't centibillionaires like Musk?

Wow, he was bullied? Poor him, his childhood wasn't easy... Wait - how many nerds are being bullied at school? Lots, if not all of them.

I wasn't even 12 that a kid at school got me from the behind and put a knife to my throat to make fun of me and joke around with his friends. There was also that other kid who kept bothering me in class and whispering me he'd kill me. I've never seen those events as the huge struggles of my life.

They just write that about Musk so that he has a "sad story" to tell. Lots of people likes the "sad stories", so they can relate to it.

Musk is just the product of a series of uncontrolled events that led them where he is now. I've read that he attempted to get a job at Netscape but didn't get a response. What if he did get that job? Where would he be now? He dropped out of Stanford after 2 days to join the internet boom. What if he didn't? What if he was born 5 years later, so that his opportunities were right *after* the internet boom instead of being *during* the internet boom where literally everybody were launching start-ups? Or right during the crash?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

I already knew you would reply this way. I don't even have to waste my time reading it. Perfect example of comparing to others and dwelling on what you don't have or control.

The frog that dwells on why it can't soar with the eagles will probably get eaten by the first snake while the frog that focused on swimming faster and catching flies probably has the pond and female frogs

If Elon Musk compared himself to others with charisma and missed opportunities he would be wallowing in his sorrow like you. You missed a huge opportunity recently it's nobody else fault. Focus on the next

Everyone has good luck and bad luck.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> I already knew you would reply this way. I don't even have to waste my time reading it. Perfect example of comparing to others and dwelling on what you don't have or control.
> 
> The frog that dwells on why it can't soar with the eagles will probably get eaten by the first snake while the frog that focused on swimming faster and catching flies probably has the pond and female frogs
> 
> ...


My goal is not to compare myself to others. It's just to show that we all go through a series of uncontrolled events that shapes us and brings us where we are.

It is very hard to understand and it's actually very healthy that most people believe they are in control, but actually we aren't. It's a paradox. It doesn't mean that we should stop "working hard". The wisdom to be learned from the importance of luck is that every decision we make and every event we experience will have a totally unknown outcome and we should accept it with positivity and adapt.

When you are "working hard" towards a goal, you are accepting the decision you are making to work towards that goal because of your belief of its probable outcome, but you don't know that outcome. You could be "working hard" towards an infinite number of other goals with an infinite number of other outcomes. The path you chose is just a coincidence.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Everyone has good and bad luck

You need to learn how to asses risk and the probability of outcomes. To mitigate bad luck and take advantage of good luck

Otherwise you just assume everything is up to luck and fate. Ins'Allah!


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> True, but the hard work is the tiny part and luck is the bigger part.


Not sure where you get this from, I know far more people that hard work has paid off for them over any sort of luck they have had.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Here's an example why even working hard fails, which means the luck of events is the driver of our fate.

Say that as a kid you dream of becoming a musician. So you start working hard early. After 5 years, you're still not good enough to become a full-time musician. After 10 years, still not enough. After 15 years... How long will you continue working hard towards your goal? You simply don't have that talent. Unlucky you. Your luck is elsewhere.

If you had stopped after only 5 years, would you be called a quitter, not working hard enough towards your goal? If after 15 years, you're still unsuccessful, would you be called a stubborn, not adapting fast enough?

What's the right balance?

Some are lucky because they don't have to find the right balance because they stumble upon they destiny early on. Others aren't as lucky and are still seeking their path.

We never know what lies in front of us. Taikichiro Mori was an academic who became a real-estate investor at age 51 when he founded Mori Building Company. His brilliant investments made him the richest man in the world in 1992, when he had a net worth of $13 billion.

Why it took him so long? He didn't work hard enough early on? No, just a matter of coincidence. A series of events.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> What's the right balance?


Good risk assessment and probability of odds determines the right balance. Risk to rewards ratio

Risk assessment to mitigate bad luck. Preparation and work to exploit windows of opportunity when they come

It doesn't happen overnight. It requires self awareness of your own gifts and patience


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

cainvest said:


> Not sure where you get this from, I know far more people that hard work has paid off for them over any sort of luck they have had.


My cousin and I went to school together. We are the same age (1 year difference). We did the same studies, we did the same apprenticeship but he decided to skip university to go to work. I decided to go to the university. I guess we both made the best decisions because he wasn't as good as me at school. He started his life earlier than me, started making decent money, bought a house, had kids. I was still at school, doing my 4-year engineering program. I got out of school, started as an engineer, my cousin was making more than me and had more money piled than me.

But then, since he has 2 kids and his girlfriend isn't making much money as a teacher (teachers don't make money in Quebec), he had to work more. He's definitely a hard worker. He started a little business, it didn't work out as expected, he started other projects. He's always onto something, working hard and many hours. Yet he had to change job, move from city to city, sell his house to go back to a rent, then buy another house, and so on.

Meanwhile, I got some promotions, my salary got higher than his after a couple of years. I never had a side hustle. Never worked more than 40h. My ex had a million from inheritance and it allowed me to save a lot while I was living with her. Then I met my current girlfriend, she wasn't making a decent income, but from the coincidence of meeting me and moving with me, she got a new job, participated to a contest at her work and she won, which allowed her to get a position where she makes almost as much as I am. She has many sisters who are making very high income and they give her huge gifts. We've bought a property much later than my cousin, but worth twice as much. We've never struggled financially. We never had to work more than 40h other than due to passion, not due to a lack of money.

Who did right or wrong here between me and my cousin? None. We both did right. Who worked hard? Him. Who had lucky outcomes? Me.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> Say that as a kid you dream of becoming a musician. So you start working hard early. After 5 years, you're still not good enough to become a full-time musician. After 10 years, still not enough. After 15 years... How long will you continue working hard towards your goal? You simply don't have that talent. Unlucky you. Your luck is elsewhere.


That's not luck IMO, just reality. One should realize their strengths and weaknesses soon enough. 

Do you think every hockey player goes on to the NHL? Sure you can try but you'd be better off (odds wise) to have a backup plan in the most likely case you don't.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> Good risk assessment and probability of odds


How do you know the risks and odds?

In an earlier post, I gave an example of a decision I went through. I truly didn't want kids, it was my "final" decision. Then I met a girl, which I believe to be the love of my life, and she wanted kids. We'd go separate ways otherwise.

So, how do you apply the risk assessment and probability of odds?

This single decision would totally change the outcome of my life. A butterfly effect at its best.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

cainvest said:


> One should realize their strengths and weaknesses soon enough.


Yup, totally agree, but my question is "what is soon enough". What's the difference between an early quitter and a stubborn?

We all have a different opinion on this. And where we stand on that spectrum affects our decision process, therefore affecting the outcomes of our lives.

There's no rational deterministic maths behind this.

And the exact moment where your brain suddenly decides that you should stop your current project and seek for another option, that's a pure coincidence. And the outcome of that coincidence is an extent of luck.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> We've never struggled financially. We never had to work more than 40h other than due to passion, not due to a lack of money.
> 
> Who had lucky outcomes? Me.


So you settled and now wonder why you can't be as lucky as other? You had many good fortunes and time to study and get further ahead

You can take advantage of lucky outcomes instead of dwell on why someone else had luck



MrBlackhill said:


> How do you know the risks and odds?
> 
> In an earlier post, I gave an example of a decision I went through. I truly didn't want kids, it was my "final" decision. Then I met a girl, which I believe to be the love of my life, and she wanted kids. We'd go separate ways otherwise.
> 
> So, how do you apply the risk assessment and probability of odds?


Wow

I know that kids aren't for me and that they would limit future opportunity. Ex gf wanted kids and I knew I had to make the tough decision or else compromise values and what I truly want. The risks and odds here are not hard to predict for me

Guess what I met a girl who also doesn't want kids and also has similar life goals and values. I still find it hard to believe love of your life when the divorce rate is so high kids or not. Maybe we are just logical and pragmatic personalities

Game theory


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> So you settled and now wonder why you can't be as lucky as other?


I didn't say I can't be as lucky as other. I keep saying I'm lucky. And that everything comes down to luck when you break it to the smallest coincidence.

Even being a hard worker is luck. I'm lucky it's part of my personality trait, from my parents genes, my education and the life events that reinforced that personality trait.



m3s said:


> I know that kids aren't for me and that they would limit future opportunity. Ex gf wanted kids and I knew I had to make the tough decision or else compromise values and what I truly want. The risks and odds here are not hard to predict for me


And I thought the same thing. But the girlfriend I met had all the right qualities, personality traits and values that I was looking for. Except kids.

How can you know you're currently on the right decision path? You don't know, you took that path and you accept it, that's the only way to make it the right path.

You believe it would limit future opportunities. While maybe it would've open a whole new set of opportunities and life experiences.

There's no right or wrong, no good or bad. Just decisions and outcomes. And us to accept our decisions and react positively to their outcomes.

But it's all coincidence. A coincidence is a unique random occurrence. An extent of luck.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

They just spent millions fixing and rebuilding my local beach from the rising ocean and climate change etc

As a pragmatic thinker it's obviously time to make the tough decision to move on. Most humans don't accept the tough decision even when the risk and odds are clear

I don't know when but the likely outcome is pretty clear. You can't insure these houses. They assessed the risks and odds obviously

Of course when it happens we will just say they are unlucky. Ins'Allah


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

sags said:


> The biggest advantage financially is starting out with wealth. There is no work or luck involved with creating greater wealth from existing wealth.


That is such an incredibly naive statement. And completely false.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

I think I'm much more into the Eastern philosophy than the Western philosophy.

I really like the Chinese three teachings (Buddhism, Taoism, Confucianism). I really like Lao Tzu.

I also like Alan W. Watts which has been popularising Buddhism, Taoism, and Hinduism for a Western audience.





 


> You do not know where your decisions come from and when you make a decision we're always worrying "Did I think this over long enough?", "Did I take enough data into consideration?"
> 
> If you think this through, you find you never could take enough data into consideration. *The data for a decision in any given situation is infinite.*
> 
> ...


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> Yup, totally agree, but my question is "what is soon enough". What's the difference between an early quitter and a stubborn?


When you (yourself) decide it's enough ... for whatever reason(s).



MrBlackhill said:


> There's no rational deterministic maths behind this.


There can be, would depend on the person though. Roughly figuring out the probability of you succeeding at a given task shouldn't be difficult to do for most things. I find many failures are based on people remaining interested and/or motivated for a given task ... once you lose those it's typically a good time to call it quits.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> What's the right balance?


Doesn't matter, you can only one of them.
So your choice is work hard, or don't work hard.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The lady who recently swam across Lake Ontario was making record time until she met an unexpected area of strong currents.

She swam for 3 hours and got nowhere, but the people in the support boat didn't tell her because they didn't want to discourage her.

She never knew until she finished the swim in just over the record time.

Just saying.........sometimes you are swimming in place because of bad luck but hard work and determination can still overcome it.

You need a combination of luck and determination to be successful.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

I will trade good business acumen, hard work, innovation, and prudent risk taking over luck any day...all day long.

Luck is for games of chance. And perhaps for those who believe in the prosperity gospel.

Successful entrepreneurs and business people tend to be people who 'make' their own luck in my experience. And they are smart enough to make lemonade out of lemons when the situation warrants it.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

There are many factors involved in success and luck is only one of them. In most cases it is not the most important. Psychologists who have studied the subject say the best predictor of success is intelligence, the second most important factor is conscientiousness. In other words being smart enough to do the right thing and stick with it. I would argue that the second was more important. Intelligence without effort won't get you there, but a person of average intelligence who maps out a plan and works at it will most likely get there eventually.


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## bgc_fan (Apr 5, 2009)

MrBlackhill said:


> Success is where preparation meets opportunity.
> 
> An opportunity is a lucky event.
> 
> ...


I didn't read all the replies, but you may find it worth your while to read Malcolm Gladwell's Outliers. It's full of anecdotal examples of "luck" playing a role in the success of some people, while someone who has exactly the same skillset, and drive doesn't become successful. But what I said is luck, is really opportunity. What you'll see in the book is that there are 3 things required: skill/expertise, hard work, and opportunity. It's pretty basic, but it's an interesting read.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> luck is only one of them. In most cases it is not the most important. Psychologists who have studied the subject say the best predictor of success is intelligence


Well, people are lucky to be more intelligent than others, no? So it comes down to luck.

How come more than half of my grades at the university were A+ with little work required while most of the other students didn't have such grades even though they worked hard all night trying to improve their grades? Because I've been lucky to be born with an ease at school.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Well, people are lucky to be more intelligent than others, no? So it comes down to luck.
> 
> How come more than half of my grades at the university were A+ with little work required while most of the other students didn't have such grades even though they worked hard all night trying to improve their grades? Because I've been lucky to be born with an ease at school.


Well then the people who have the inclination and drive to work hard were just lucky to get that.
Totally deterministic view of the universe.

I'll just sit back and say it's irrelevant. You only control the factors you control. Those factors can contribute greatly to success. You want to be better, work hard. The option of waiting for luck is silly and not useful.


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## afulldeck (Mar 28, 2012)

MrBlackhill said:


> How come more than half of my grades at the university were A+ with little work required while most of the other students didn't have such grades even though they worked hard all night trying to improve their grades? Because I've been lucky to be born with an ease at school.


Your confusing luck with chance. It's chance via an emergent property of human evolutionary diversity that gave you a certain set of properties, similar to plants growing larger (chance) to get outside the canopy that is killing the light and the plant species. Evolution is always rolling the dice- some plants grow larger, some smaller, some wider, some with more leaves etc. However mother nature only concludes its success at the end of the lifecycle -- whether that "particular diversity' proves to be successful when there is success with the continuation of the species. God may not roll the dice, but Mother nature certainly does. 

However, you are lucky to self-realize your skills (chance diversity) are hardwired in such a way that makes regurgitating knowledge through school easier than your cohorts.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

afulldeck said:


> Your confusing luck with chance. It's chance via an emergent property of human evolutionary diversity that gave you a certain set of properties, similar to plants growing larger (chance) to get outside the canopy that is killing the light and the plant species. Evolution is always rolling the dice- some plants grow larger, some smaller, some wider, some with more leaves etc. However mother nature only concludes its success at the end of the lifecycle -- whether that "particular diversity' proves to be successful when there is success with the continuation of the species. God may not roll the dice, but Mother nature certainly does.
> 
> However, you are lucky to self-realize your skills (chance diversity) are hardwired in such a way that makes regurgitating knowledge through school easier than your cohorts.


Interesting, it's a bit confusing for me with French where _chance _means "luck", "chance", "opportunity" depending of the context and _hasard, coïncidence_ means "chance", "coincidence".

Maybe I used the word "luck" because all the good coincidence/chance in your life are expressed as luck.

So, yes, what I really mean then is that it all comes down to chance/coincidence. Chance when I break it down to the physical & psychological traits that you were born with. I guess it's also chance when I'm talking about the education you've been given by your parents, the environment & country in which you were born, etc. And coincidence when it comes to every single coincidence in life (all the events you've experienced, the people you've met, etc) and some of those coincidence turns out to be lucky.









The Difference Between Chance And Luck - ArtsJournal -


The Difference Between Chance And Luck - ArtsJournal - The latest daily arts and culture news.




www.artsjournal.com







> Luck is chance viewed through the spectacles of good or bad fortune. It’s really good news, at least for you, if you win the lottery, and it’s really bad news if you’re one of the passengers on the plane when it crashes. Chance, then, is the objective reality of random outcomes in the real world, while luck is a consequence of the subjective value you place on those random outcomes. Luck, we might say, is chance with a human face. Understanding this gives us a clearer view of reality, and a clearer view of reality means we can choose better courses of action.”


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

afulldeck said:


> Your confusing luck with chance.


I think they're "the same"
Luck - success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> ....
> Because I've been lucky to be born with an ease at school.


One of my classmates was smart but could not get along with his professors so he quit and formed his own tech company. Sold it for $10 million after ten years.

Meanwhile, I got the good grades, got along and got a good paying job. Yes I was lucky and he was rich.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

kcowan said:


> One of my classmates was smart but could not get along with his professors so he quit and formed his own tech company. Sold it for $10 million after ten years.
> 
> Meanwhile, I got the good grades, got along and got a good paying job. Yes I was lucky and he was rich.


Yes, there's many articles about the best entrepreneurs are the B grades students.

Sometimes, those who never struggled at school don't know how to react when they face their first struggle at work.

Though since I've been raised by farmers, I've been exposed to many struggles, but not at school.









LUCKY OR SMART? Successful Entrepreneurs Are "B" Students, Not "A" Students







www.businessinsider.com







https://gusto.com/blog/growth/entrepreneur-skills-bad-students










Why Great Entrepreneurs Get Bad Grades


Some entrepreneurs struggle in school. There’s a good reason, and student entrepreneurs are much happier once they learn to appreciate it.




medium.com


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

There are those who believe luck is everything, and then there are successful people. I picture the luck is everything boys sitting on the couch with their feet up on the coffee table, watching TV with a handful of lottery tickets waiting for luck to make them rich, or watching a professional athlete who has trained hard for 5 hours a day for 15 years and commenting how "lucky" he is.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> a professional athlete who has trained hard for 5 hours a day for 15 years and commenting how "lucky" he is.


Tell this to any kid who wanted to make the hockey league that's just because he didn't work hard enough.

That would mean that twins should have the same outcome with their life?

I get the point that some people are lazy and expect life to owe them everything. But even that, even if "luck" may not be the right word, the fact that they have the wrong mindset is only due to a series a coincidences - bad genes, bag parents, bad education, bad environment, bad life events.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

MrBlackhill said:


> Tell this to any kid who wanted to make the hockey league that's just because he didn't work hard enough.
> 
> That would mean that twins should have the same outcome with their life?
> 
> I get the point that some people are lazy and expect life to owe them everything. But even that, even if "luck" may not be the right word, the fact that they have the wrong mindset is only due to a series a coincidences - bad genes, bag parents, bad education, bad environment, bad life events.


Not true. Check out the biography of any successful pro athlete, you will usually find that they tried 3 or 4 sports not very successfully before they found the one they are good at.
I agree there is such a thing as luck but it is not something you can depend on. Sometimes you have to take what you can get and make the best of it. Don't make the worst of it and blame it on luck. Then there are ways of improving your luck with a little effort.
I know I'm not a lucky guy, never have been. So I had to find ways to work around it. Done a lot better since then.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Not true. Check out the biography of any successful pro athlete, you will usually find that they tried 3 or 4 sports not very successfully before they found the one they are good at.


Still a great coincidence that they found out a sport at which they were good enough to become a pro athlete.

You won't get to read the biography of those that tried 5-6 sports until they understood that they would never become a pro athlete, then they tried 5-6 other things to make a living and still haven't found out their path. Because those people don't get their biography written.

The people that we hear about are those that were blessed with the right coincidences in life. There are millions of people working hard to find their way, but only a few that have a story worth writing about.

Some people work hard all their life but never get rewarded by the right coincidences. Others work hard a few years and get rewarded by the right coincidences and then they get to continue working hard towards their vocation with passion.

It needs only one specific coincidence to completely change the outcome of your life.

For instance, you've found out a trading strategy that works out great to you. What if you had found it out 10 years earlier?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Tell this to any kid who wanted to make the hockey league that's just because he didn't work hard enough.
> 
> That would mean that twins should have the same outcome with their life?
> 
> I get the point that some people are lazy and expect life to owe them everything. But even that, even if "luck" may not be the right word, the fact that they have the wrong mindset is only due to a series a coincidences - bad genes, bag parents, bad education, bad environment, bad life events.


Yes, they had bad luck, but I know lots of people with "bad luck" who did well, due to their hard work, and the efforts of those around them.

The issue I have with saying "it all comes down to luck", gives permission to blame it on luck. That benefits nobody.

**** happens, but if you work hard, you can make it better.
Maybe it's "bad luck" that they had a series of coincidences leading to the wrong mindset.

But telling people "it' all comes down to luck", just reinforces that mindset, and isn't helpful. It really isn't.

Like I've said, everyone I know who is successful put in the effort to get there. Sure they all got luck, but pretty much everyone born in Canada started out luckier than most people.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> The issue I have with saying "it all comes down to luck", gives permission to blame it on luck. That benefits nobody.
> 
> ...
> 
> But telling people "it' all comes down to luck", just reinforces that mindset, and isn't helpful. It really isn't.


I know and I agree, and that's what I wrote here earlier :



MrBlackhill said:


> It is very hard to understand and it's actually very healthy that most people believe they are in control, but actually we aren't. It's a paradox. It doesn't mean that we should stop "working hard". The wisdom to be learned from the importance of luck is that every decision we make and every event we experience will have a totally unknown outcome and we should accept it with positivity and adapt.


The paradox is that while you are working hard towards your goals, you must continue believing that you have some sort of control, but once you've reach your goal you must have the wisdom to notice that it was a series of coincidences, even though you were part of it.

Everybody should work hard, but who would work hard if they thought it was all about coincidences, even though it is? The fact that you work hard is part of the coincidence. You won't cross an old friend on the road of you aren't on the road. But that doesn't remove the fact that's a coincidence. Sure helped by you, but still a coincidence. And we don't know what kind of coincidences that lies on our path. We don't know what road we should take, but we must be on the road.

Life is not a journey, you must just dance with the music of life.








> It was a musical thing and you were supposed to sing or dance while the music was being played, *but you had to do that, you didn't let it happen.*


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

People point to those who are successful, but that is because they are successful and well known.

They can't and don't point to all the people who despite their hard work failed to fulfill their ambitions.

A lot more people end up settling for a way to earn a living than continue on to live their dreams.

For every young hockey player who dreams of playing in the NHL and dedicates their lives to it.....only a few are chosen.

The rest take on normal jobs and think from time to time of what might have been.

We need to stop telling young people that you CAN be whatever you want to be....if you work hard enough at it.

We should be telling them that IF they want a chance to be whatever they want to be.....they need to work hard at it, but there is no guarantee of success.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> The paradox is that while you are working hard towards your goals, you must continue believing that you have some sort of control, but once you've reach your goal you must have the wisdom to notice that it was a series of coincidences, even though you were part of it.
> 
> Everybody should work hard, but who would work hard if they thought it was all about coincidences, even though it is? The fact that you work hard is part of the coincidence.


There is no paradox.

I believe in free will and reject the deterministic view of life. 

For some, the idea of being powerless and existing at the whims of the universe and free of responsibility, because it all comes down to luck, is a freeing concept.
I find that idea dehumanizing and depressing. 

Finally at a deeper level, whether I have free will or not, is irrelevant. I think society, and my individual existence is better if we all pretend free will exists.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> I think society, and my individual existence is better if we all pretend free will exists.


It is better that we pretend. But it is what it is, we *pretend*.

"_Ignorance is the greatest source of happiness._" -Giacomo Leopardi
"_Every moment of happiness requires a great amount of ignorance._" -Honoré de Balzac
"_A person is never happy except at the price of some ignorance."_ -Anatole France
"_In ignorance, we find our bliss; in illusions, our happiness._" -Anatole France
"_Happiness is the fusion of ignorance and illusion._" -Ritu Madaan


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Everyone with a plan A..........needs a backup plan B.

The phrases "starving artist", "career minor leaguer", "back up singer".........represent the reality for most.

People should be encouraged to follow their dreams, but they also need to understand an honest assessment of the odds of success.

People who lack that honest assessment, often end up bitterly disappointed with their station in life.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> It is better that we pretend. But it is what it is, we *pretend*.


It certainly does exist, but to those who think it doesn't, they should pretend it does.

Of course the problem is that people who are determinisitic are basically shrugging responsibility for the own actions, and even their own thoughts.
Horrible.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> determinisitic


You know that when I'm talking about coincidences, I'm talking about randomness, a stochastic process, which is the opposite of deterministic?

When one thinks he has control, he believes it's deterministic - cause & effect.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> You know that when I'm talking about coincidences, I'm talking about randomness, a stochastic process, which is the opposite of deterministic?
> 
> When one thinks he has control, he believes it's deterministic - cause & effect.


But you're simultaneously arguing that those "random" things determine where we end up, and everything including our mindset is "luck".

But if your mindset is some "random" thing that happens to you, and you're powerless to the gods of fate (ie it all comes down to luck) then you're actually arguing a deterministic existance.

Sorry, we have free will, we have the choice, we can take responsibility.
It isn't all luck, that's part of it, but it's really about how we exercise our free will and choose to act.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

At the start of any game you are dealt a set of cards by chance

Someone like sags will wallow that he didn't get better cards and play as if he got better cards just hoping for unlikely fortune to just happen

Someone who consistently out performs will play based on the cards dealt and take calculated risks based on new information as things progress

You can win using the sags method of just hoping for better luck than others but it is far less consistent


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Free will is an illusion. Free will is the feeling of control when our consciousness identifies what our unconsciousness has already triggered.



> Free will _is_ an illusion. Our wills are simply not of our own making. Thoughts and intentions emerge from background causes of which we are unaware and over which we exert no conscious control. We do not have the freedom we think we have.
> 
> And, as uncomfortable as this may be, it's very much consistent with neuroscientific research.





> > These findings are difficult to reconcile with the sense that we are the conscious authors of our actions. One fact now seems indisputable: some moments _before_ you are aware of what you will do next — a time in which you subjectively appear to have complete freedom to behave however you please — your brain has already determined what you will do. You then become conscious of this ‘decision’ and believe that you are in the process of making it.
> 
> 
> “The phrase _free will_”, therefore, as Harris later clarifies, simply “describes what it feels like to identify with certain mental states as they arise in consciousness” — and our ‘freedom’ constitutes nothing more than this illusory feeling of control.
> ...





> direct recordings from the cortex have shown that the activity of just 256 neurons is sufficient to predict with 80% accuracy a person's decision to move 700 milliseconds before they become aware of it.





> In another study, subjects were asked to press one of two buttons while watching a clock composed of a random sequence of letters on a screen. The experimenters used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to show that two brain regions contained information about which button subjects would press *a full seven to ten seconds before the decision was consciously made*.





> > Take a moment to think about the context in which your next decision will occur: You did not pick your parents or the time and place of your birth. You didn't choose your gender or most of your life experiences. You had no control whatsoever over your genome or the development of your brain. And now your brain is making choices on the basis of preferences and beliefs that have been hammered into it over a lifetime — by your genes, your physical development since the moment you were conceived, and the interactions you have had with other people, events, and ideas. Where is the freedom in this?
> 
> 
> You might now stop and start reading again at random just to spite this hypothesis.
> ...











Why You Probably Don't Have Free Will | Philosophy Break


Neuroscientist and philosopher Sam Harris argues that free will is an illusion. In his view, we are the mere conscious witnesses of decisions that deep in our brains have already been made.




philosophybreak.com


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> Someone who consistently out performs will play based on the cards dealt and take calculated risks based on new information as things progress


Two computers use the same program to make the same calculated risk when playing at a non-deterministic game. The two computers play a game one against the other. Which computer wins?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Free will is an illusion. Free will is the feeling of control when our consciousness identifies what our unconsciousness has already triggered.


Sam Harris is great, I'm a huge fan.

But that doesn't matter, your life will be better if you take responsibility.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> Two computers use the same program to make the same calculated risk when playing at a non-deterministic game. The two computers play a game one against the other. Which computer wins?


There is always an element of luck

What good is it to wallow in self pity and make excuses for yourself just waiting for god to hand you the lottery of life

Somebody had to build and program the computers to capitalize on luck


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

MrBlackhill said:


> Still a great coincidence that they found out a sport at which they were good enough to become a pro athlete.
> 
> You won't get to read the biography of those that tried 5-6 sports until they understood that they would never become a pro athlete, then they tried 5-6 other things to make a living and still haven't found out their path. Because those people don't get their biography written.
> 
> ...


The funny thing is, the key to my trading method was in one of the first investing books I ever read. I stumbled on it quite by accident in a used book store 50 years ago. That was luck. But I was looking for investing books. That was not luck. But I did not follow it up. Was that luck? You could call anything luck if you want to. I have had some luck in my life but most of it was bad luck with occasional flashes of good luck. If I was fool enough to think everything was luck I would have given up long ago.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> What good is it to wallow in self pity and make excuses for yourself just waiting for god to hand you the lottery of life


Never in none of my posts I ever mentioned that we should wallow in self pity and make excuses.

I've just mentioned that we should be grateful of our great fortune, of all the coincidences we've encountered throughout our lives. And this we should not boast too much about how successful we are only due to our hard work and that the others simply didn't work hard enough.

We should all try to have a positive attitude and improve our mindset to be able to face life.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Never in none of my posts I ever mentioned that we should wallow in self pity and make excuses.


That's literally the title of the thread
"it *ALL* comes down to luck"

things aren't good, bad luck.
not trying hard, why bother it ALL comes down to luck.



> I've just mentioned that we should be grateful of our great fortune, of all the coincidences we've encountered throughout our lives. And this we should not boast too much about how successful we are only due to our hard work and that the others simply didn't work hard enough.


Nobody is claiming that, only that hard work is an essential part of success.



> We should all try to have a positive attitude and improve our mindset to be able to face life.


So stop blaming luck.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> So stop blaming luck


I'm not blaming, I'm being grateful.



MrMatt said:


> Nobody is claiming that, only that hard work is an essential part of success.





MrMatt said:


> not trying hard, why bother it ALL comes down to luck.


Hard work is important. But even the fact that one has developed the mindset of a hard-worker is a coincidence.

I've developed the mindset of an hard-worker because I was born and educated in an environment where it's encouraged and demonstrated. That's a great coincidence. Some other people in my extended family didn't have such an environment and now they are failures.

Tell me, women who lived a life of abuse and are afraid to talk, I guess they are simply weak, they aren't truly victims and they should just work their mindset out of it? Because it's that easy, right? They should have control on how they react to that environment, right?

You don't have control on how your brain has developed its way to react to different situations.

That was just an extreme example. There's people out there who have been brainwashed by they environment into developing the lazy mindset, into thinking that life owe them.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Our brain works with reinforcement.

You work hard, by great coincidence, you get rewarded, you believe it's due to your hard work, so you continue working hard and you stumble upon other coincidences.

Some people work hard, by bad coincidence, don't get rewarded, by willpower, continue working hard, still don't get rewarded, by remaining willpower, still work hard, still don't get rewarded, empty their willpower, start being depressed, misses an opportunity because they coincidently weren't on the right road, and so on.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Hard work is important. But even the fact that one has developed the mindset of a hard-worker is a coincidence.


Hard work is a choice.



> Tell me, women who lived a life of abuse and are afraid to talk, I guess they are simply weak, they aren't truly victims and they should just work their mindset out of it?


Huh? I don't see the link, and no they're not victims of abuse because of a "poor mindset". That's ridiculous.



> Because it's that easy, right? They should have control on how they react to that environment, right?


never said it was easy.
If you recall I've even said "hard work", guess what "hard" is the opposite of easy.



> You don't have control on how your brain has developed its way to react to different situations.


yes you're back to, we're all victims of fate, and have no control of our destiny. what a sad and limiting view.



> That was just an extreme example. There's people out there who have been brainwashed by they environment into developing the lazy mindset, into thinking that life owe them.


Absolutely, we're raising a generation of them.

Lets be clear, I'm absolutely not discounting the importance of luck.
I'm simply stating it isn't "ALL luck", which again is your stated premise.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> Huh? I don't see the link, and no they're not victims of abuse because of a "poor mindset". That's ridiculous.


The link is that our environment can make us develop psychological constraints to the development of our full potential, to a healthy development of ourselves.



MrMatt said:


> Lets be clear, I'm absolutely not discounting the importance of luck.
> I'm simply stating it isn't "ALL luck", which again is your stated premise.


When you think you are making a conscious decision (free will), your unconsciousness has already fully computed the final decision for you, your decision is already taken and you are only consciously discovering that decision. How your unconsciousness computes it depends of all the experiences that you've went through and how it shaped your neuron's connections and your chemical balance.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

10,000 hours

That is what Malcolm Gladwell claims is the investment in any endeavour to make you expert.

Examples used:
Gretzky
Woods
Beatles
and many others.

Luck is involved in timing.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> The link is that our environment can make us develop psychological constraints to the development of our full potential, to a healthy development of ourselves.


Yes




> When you think you are making a conscious decision (free will), your unconsciousness has already fully computed the final decision for you, your decision is already taken and you are only consciously discovering that decision. How your unconsciousness computes it depends of all the experiences that you've went through and how it shaped your neuron's connections and your chemical balance.


Yes and no, that's one decision theory, in one set of circumstances.

The free will argument is still an ongoing debate.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> When you think you are making a conscious decision (free will), your unconsciousness has already fully computed the final decision for you, your decision is already taken and you are only consciously discovering that decision.


Don't believe this for a second, especially when one is still gathering information for the topic at hand. Of course you will have a predisposition to a course of action based on your thinking process.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

People invest in all kinds of things.......from stocks to fine wines or crypto.

Since nobody knows the future, are they not depending on a level of luck to prosper ?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

kcowan said:


> 10,000 hours
> 
> That is what Malcolm Gladwell claims is the investment in any endeavour to make you expert.
> 
> ...


Well there is a lot more too it than that, and it isn't his research anyway.
It's actually all about "a lot" of deliberate practice, not specifically 10k hours of doing something.

Anders Ericsson has spoken extensively about the 10k hour rule research


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

sags said:


> Since nobody knows the future, are they not depending on a level of luck to prosper ?


So you've been on an investment forum over 10 years and think investing is the same as the lottery


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> The free will argument is still an ongoing debate.


I'll give you that.

But no matter if you took your decision with free will or not, you've taken a decision to which you don't know the full extent of its outcome.

Imagine, there's a big concern about how social media, with its targeted content, influence people's moods, decisions and emotions. And that's just a virtual world where your decisions to click or not on a specific content leads you to a different experience, and in background there's an AI with a specific goal. Now imagine how the real world coincidences, events and experiences have a huge influence on you.

All the things on which I had no control had a huge impact on my life, while all the things on which I had some sense of control as led me to a totally unknown path that I know only now that it's my past and my present.

I can list an infinite number of decisions that I took and events that I lived that influenced where I am now.
I can list absolutely no decision I've taken that I know with *certainty* that it was for the best.

Going to the university or not?
Taking that program or another one?
Going for a Master's or sticking to a Bachelor's and start working?
Dumping that girl or not?
Moving with that girl in another city or not?
Changing job or not?
Moving to another country or not?
Buying a condo or a duplex or a house or renting?
Having kids or not?
Marriage or not?
Using hours of my life to learn a language or using that time on something else?
Taking my free time to work on my side hustle or to be with my wife and kid?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> I'll give you that.
> 
> But no matter if you took your decision with free will or not, you've taken a decision to which you don't know the full extent of its outcome.


No, but in general you can make a reasonable estimate of the most likely outcomes.
Poker is a great game for this, you have partial information and the likley outcome is predictable, while the actual outcome is not. 




> I can list absolutely no decision I've taken that I know with *certainty* that it was for the best.


of course there wasn't certainty, but at each point there was a probable result or set of results.



> Going to the university or not?
> Taking that program or another one?
> Going for a Master's or sticking to a Bachelor's and start working?
> Dumping that girl or not?
> ...


Yes all those decisions have "unknown" outcomes, but they have probable outcomes, which is how I chose mine.

But it isn't all luck anyway.
If you didn't go to university, didn't take a good program, dumped every girl, didn't buy a house or rent, didn't learn stuff and didn't work a side hustle, I'd suggest you'd be leading a very different life, and likely wouldn't be as happy.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> I can list absolutely no decision I've taken that I know with *certainty* that it was for the best.


You need to figure out who you are and what matters to you. Usually comes with age

Unfortunately many make important decisions before they know what maters to them or never take the time to figure it out

Clarity definitely comes when you figure out what matters to you rather than you think will impress others


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## 307169 (May 24, 2015)

MrMatt said:


> Yes there is.
> Look at the lottery winners who end up bankrupt.


Starting with wealth don't only mean getting large sum of money, it also mean getting educated in the proper mindset to manage money.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

m3s said:


> So you've been on an investment forum over 10 years and think investing is the same as the lottery


One assumes their investments will rise in value over time, but if and when that occurs is a matter of chance.

Depending on a person's age, the investments may stagnate or lose value before their timeline ends. (Monte Carlo effect....as in gambling).

As they say........the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> You need to figure out who you are and what matters to you. Usually comes with age
> 
> Unfortunately many make important decisions before they know what maters to them or never take the time to figure it out
> 
> Clarity definitely comes when you figure out what matters to you rather than you think will impress others


It comes with age because you accumulate a series of experiences - all coincidences - that shaped you and influenced you.

As a kid, my dad played math games with me early on. He reinforced that skill as I became better and better and I could do a lot of mental maths before even starting school. My parents didn't care about geography and history. Never tried to interest me. As I started school, I was already good at math, so I got interested by the math teacher. Geography and history got me curious - because I was curious by nature - but then when the exams came which were about memory - something that I had never practiced - I hated it. And I started hating anything that was about memory and liking anything that was about maths.

As you grow older, the experiences that you live - coincidences - reinforces some of your traits and then you experience this as "getting to know yourself", but you are actually "getting to know how the sum of the coincidences have shaped you".

I could have totally different values if I had went through totally different experiences.

I'm now 33, my 33 years of past are now fixed, it's 33 years of coincidences that have shaped me. But when I was 3, I couldn't know what would be my values at 33 because there was still 30 years of future in front of me - a future of coincidences that I can't control and that would shape my values. My currently fixed past was my unknown future back then. That's why we "figure out who we are as we age". We are simply discovering a new present day which becomes the past - we discover our past.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

Some of DW's relatives think I am lucky and that we are lucky. We are, but not in the sense that they think.

Lucky enough to have a few years of working ourselves through university while many of her friends and relatives married husbands with good union jobs in her home town bought new vehicles and houses, had children immediately, with lots of relatives to assist.

Lucky to be able to buy only second hand furniture. Bicycles instead of a car (great for going down Jarvis to the St. Lawrence Market later on a Saturday to get dinner). Once in a while we were lucky to be able to pick at $9.99 a day weekend special B210 rental from Tilden on Yonge St above Bloor on Friday and return Sunday night.

Lucky to pull up stakes and move several times across the county with no family ties to take advantage of job opportunities.

Lucky to wait 10 years before having children because we were not ready for them or financially prepared so that DW could be a stay at home mother.

Lucky to work many 12 hour days (what is overtime pay anyway?) to meet employer or customer commitments and responsibilities. Lucky to be away from home at times so often on business that my spouse sometimes referred to herself jokingly as a widow. Lucky me being able to stay in all those fancy hotels instead of being at home with my family.

Lucky to always live below our income, buy in the right market, pay off our mortgage so that we could invest prudently for an early retirement. Lucky enough never to get sucked into consumer debt of any kind.

The real luck was the good fortune to work with wonderful colleagues, wonderful customers and for great employers for 30 plus years. Plus of course all the luck from a personal life and an experiences perspective.

Sometimes luck is really about choices in life rather than, well luck.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I should point out that coincidences........has the word "coin" in it.

So if you want to bank coin.........you need coincidence.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I would say enjoying good health, which is often determined by genes and beyond a person's control is the best example of good luck.

Everything else trails along far behind.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

sags said:


> I would say enjoying good health, which is often determined by genes and beyond a person's control is the best example of good luck.
> 
> Everything else trails along far behind.


Except perhaps smoking, drinking to excess, ,too much bc bud, no exercise, eating unhealthy foods, obesity etc. And various other forms of self abuse.

Genes are important. They are hereditary. It is science. The rest is down to the individual.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I don't deny that hard work will net results. Heck, I started working full time when I was 16 and never stopped working for 40 years.

But I dreamed of being a baseball player, a dentist, a gym teacher, and a lawyer.....at different times in my younger years.

It was just dreams because I had a life to pay for myself and there was no financial path forward. Sometimes you can't get there from here.

If your parents could afford to send you to university or even support you at age 16........you were "luckier" that I was.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

sags said:


> If your parents could afford to send you to university or even support you at age 16........you were "luckier" that I was.


You dwell on everyone who is apparently more fortunate than you while blind to the vast majority who are less fortunate

If you live in a country where you can get educated and medicated for free you are far "luckier" than most of the world's population. My parents didn't pay for my education

Immigrants thrive here with far less luck. Afghans are literally clutching to the outside of military planes to get here and all you can do it wallow


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

My parents did not pay for my education. Worked for a year prior, then worked my way through.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

I was thinking back about this thread.

There's a lot about success, wealth, hard work, decision-taking based on a decent risk management, etc., but that's all very egocentric.

My intent with this thread was more about the coincidences. I know I used the word "luck" that has some kind of negative connotation to many, but we can't deny all the coincidences that are not driven by hard work and risk management. I also know that my first post started with the word "success" and I shouldn't have put the focus on that.

Maybe it's just me, maybe I over think, but I started this thread because there are thousands of different paths I could've taken, there thousands of different events that could've end differently.

For instance - and again, maybe that's just me - I've been with more girls than I can count on my fingers. Thinking back about their specific personally and how we shared moments together, if I would've continued the relation with any other girl than the one I'm with at the moment, the outcome of my life would've been totally different. Or maybe I could've stayed single all my life like my dad did. With most of those girls, there wasn't any truly big issue at the end, I was just young and I enjoyed a change from time to time. Hell, I still need to have a change, I got bored so easily, that's why I keep changing job. And it's not even only about getting bored, I simply enjoy different experiences, I hate being in a comfort zone. And each time I decided that I needed a change, it was a coincidence. It's nothing about hard work, nothing about risk management, I was just making a snap judgement and then taking a different path. I could be living the van life without any home as I could be where I am now with a duplex that has a rented unit. Some people talked about adaptation. To me, it's almost an issue - I can adapt to almost any situation - therefore I have endless possibilities in front of me and since I enjoy being out of my comfort zone, it's pretty easy to me to make a snap judgment and switch to something new. I wake up, I suddenly have something on my mind and then I go into it fully and intensely until something else comes to mind.

That's also why I struggle with time. I always feel like life is too short. I could live 9 lives and it still wouldn't be enough. I don't know how to say that but I never get bored because I always get bored? I have so many interests that there's too many things I wish I could do during my free time. So even if I didn't have to work, my days would still be filled with activities and I would never get bored because I would keep switching from an activity to another.

Also I never constraint myself to any long term goals. Don't get me wrong, I do have long term goals and I take them seriously, but in some sense I don't take them _*too*_ seriously because I want to keep my mind open to other possibilities along the way. Sometimes, people are so focused on a specific goal, that they miss other opportunities and they miss the point of living the present. Life is not a journey towards a goal, life is music and you just have to dance with it.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

This sounds like MBTI Judging vs Perceiving

Judging types tend to be more decisive and focused on long term goals and plans. They are task oriented and like to get work done before play. They can be somewhat blind to the preset. Perceiving types tend to be more flexible and keep their options open. They are more focused on the preset possibilities than future plans. They tend to dislike deadlines and plans.

Ideally once the work is done it is liberating to just go with the flow and make the best of whatever comes. I've learned to travel spontaneously with less plans to be more in the present. Work and major things are still planned. I can't imagine letting some major life decisions just happen as fate. I think part of maturing is finding a balance in between the two types


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> This sounds like MBTI Judging vs Perceiving


Yes, I've always been interested by those tests and did a few. About the MBTI, I ended up thinking I had an issue and that's why my "expected personality/behavior" was so hard to grasp and that it was also hard for me to truly get to know myself. Why? Because when I took the test, it gave the confidence about each of the 4 letters. And mine were 50% on each of them.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> I was thinking back about this thread.
> 
> There's a lot about success, wealth, hard work, decision-taking based on a decent risk management, etc., but that's all very egocentric.


No, it's pragmatic



> My intent with this thread was more about the coincidences. I know I used the word "luck" that has some kind of negative connotation to many, but we can't deny all the coincidences that are not driven by hard work and risk management. I also know that my first post started with the word "success" and I shouldn't have put the focus on that.


No we can't.
But luck is only half the story, and it's the half you have no control over.
It's dumb to waste energy on things outside of your control.

Also as I've stated, the very title of this thread discounts the other half of success, the one that a person can actually influence. Let alone the idea of putting yourself in a position to take advantage of the luck that comes your way.

It's really a locus of control issue.

Look at the Olympics, they're all incredibly lucky and gifted, but without the hard work, they wouldn't be there. I'm not discounting luck, I just see little reason to consider it.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> No, it's pragmatic
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Your reply is fully focused on success while my previous post was exactly to remove this direct relationship. The focus should be on the infinite amount of coincidences that we've been through.

Many, many decisions aren't defined by success, it's just coincidences.

You go for a walk and you suddenly meet an old friend who's in town. He asks you if you want to go for a beer. The fact that you've stumbled upon an old friend is a pure coincidence. *Your decision to go for a beer with him or not has nothing to do with success and risk management.* But what if you decide to go for a beer and he talks to you about something that would change your life for the better?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Your reply is fully focused on success while my previous post was exactly to remove this direct relationship. The focus should be on the infinite amount of coincidences that we've been through.
> 
> Many, many decisions aren't defined by success, it's just coincidences.
> 
> You go for a walk and you suddenly meet an old friend who's in town. He asks you if you want to go for a beer. The fact that you've stumbled upon an old friend is a pure coincidence. *Your decision to go for a beer with him or not has nothing to do with success and risk management.* But what if you decide to go for a beer and he talks to you about something that would change your life for the better?


You're wrong.
Your decision to have a beer has you weighing the benefits of that activity vs not partaking in that activity.

Again, there is a factor of luck, but there are a bunch of other things leading to it. 

It wasn't a "pure coincidence", if you choose to go for a walk, instead of watching TV, you changed the odds of running into someone.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> You're wrong.
> Your decision to have a beer has you weighing the benefits of that activity vs not partaking in that activity.
> 
> Again, there is a factor of luck, but there are a bunch of other things leading to it.
> ...


Wow, do you have any emotions? Or everything you do is calculated? Everything is *consciously* weighed?

Do you ever "feel like doing something" or I guess you always "calculate what you should do"?

How does it work when you date a girl, when you see a friend, when your kids wants you to do an activity with them?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

But I guess, as @m3s made a link with the MBTI, you must be at the extreme end of the spectrum of Judging. 100% Judging, 0% Perceiving.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

m3s said:


> ...Unfortunately many make important decisions before they know what maters to them or never take the time to figure it out


I agree with you there. I had a good handle on the business side but not a clue about the social aspects. DW decided to get married before I was ready, had kids before I was ready. Others were better on the social side but lacked the business acumen.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

MrBlackhill said:


> Wow, do you have any emotions? Or everything you do is calculated? Everything is *consciously* weighed?
> 
> Do you ever "feel like doing something" or I guess you always "calculate what you should do"?


That's more MBTI Thinking vs Feeling not Judging vs Perceiving

It's not 100% one way and 0% the other. Thinkers prioritize logic but still have feelings


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Some of my best decisions were impulse decisions. Some of my successes and failures were pure luck.

In the investing world.......analysis creates a diversity of opinion, which renders the choices down to impulse and hoping for good luck.

Most stocks will have some analysis as a buy, a hold, or a sell recommendation.

They all can't be right........so pick your analysis.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> That's more MBTI Thinking vs Feeling not Judging vs Perceiving
> 
> It's not 100% one way and 0% the other. Thinkers prioritize logic but still have feelings


Ah, true.

I thought about Judging vs Perceiving because Judging are people who plan everything while Perceiving are people who act spontaneously.

But Thinking vs Feeling is more accurate because it's about the decision-making process.

I guess when you are Thinking & Judging, you are a lot into calculating every single move and you see emotions and spontaneity as evil.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> Many, many decisions aren't defined by success, it's just coincidences.
> 
> You go for a walk and you suddenly meet an old friend who's in town. He asks you if you want to go for a beer. The fact that you've stumbled upon an old friend is a pure coincidence. *Your decision to go for a beer with him or not has nothing to do with success and risk management.* But what if you decide to go for a beer and he talks to you about something that would change your life for the better?


Not sure what you are getting at here other than to point out life has many events that can change your direction, for better or worse.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

cainvest said:


> Not sure what you are getting at here other than to point out life has many events that can change your direction, for better or worse.


Well, that's where I want to get, yes.  Decisions which are neither good or bad, leading to unknown outcomes.

The disagreement is about how much of what we have become is due to those uncontrolled events vs the "controlled" events. (Even though I believe that control is an illusion)


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> The disagreement is about how much of what we have become is due to those uncontrolled events vs the "controlled" events. (Even though I believe that control is an illusion)


The answer will be all over the board so to speak. Some people will have very predictable lives while others will be significantly impacted by specific events (or a single event) along he way. Regardless of events, most people do have a significant level of control over how their lives will play out.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Wow, do you have any emotions?


Yes



> Or everything you do is calculated?


Nope, not even close.



> Everything is *consciously* weighed?


Of course not, haven't you read the research on this?



> Do you ever "feel like doing something" or I guess you always "calculate what you should do"?


Uhh, if I feel like doing it, I very well might do it.
But sometimes I work to my plan irrespective of how I feel.

[/QUOTE]
How does it work when you date a girl, when you see a friend, when your kids wants you to do an activity with them?
[/QUOTE]
I decide what I want to do with the available options.
What do you do? Impulsively leap to the next shiny object?

No you look at the options and pick one.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> I decide what I want to do with the available options.
> What do you do? Impulsively leap to the next shiny object?
> 
> No you look at the options and pick one.


In the same post, you answer that no, everything is not calculated and that of course not, things are not consciously weighed, but then you say that you look at your options and pick one.

So... What do you define to be the process of "looking at your options" if they aren't calculated and they aren't consciously weighed?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

cainvest said:


> Regardless of events, most people do have a significant level of control over how their lives will play out.


Depends how deep you go into the coincidences of your life.

On the surface, there's coincidences and decisions. And since we make decisions, we call this "being in control".

But deep down, what's the truly conscious process of making that decision and what are the parameters of that influenced that decision? The answer is : a series of other coincidences. Deep down, how you react to every event depends on the aggregate of all the previous events you've went through. It depends how they have influenced your brain's chemical balance. It depends of your genes, from your parents. It depends of the environment in which you've lived.

So, on the surface, yes, we say that we have "control" which is healthy. But deep down, if you think of it thoroughly, it's an illusion. But a very healthy illusion.

And that's why I call it a paradox. Because without that illusion, people would think they don't need to work hard. But working hard is part of the illusion, part of the coincidences.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> Depends how deep you go into the coincidences of your life.
> 
> On the surface, there's coincidences and decisions. And since we make decisions, we call this "being in control".
> 
> ...


Yes life teaches us things and we have genetic traits. Not sure why you believe that takes away from being in control or makes it an illusion, it alters our thinking process for future decisions. 

Working hard yields benefits for the vast majority of people, most know that so most do it ... that's not coincidence.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> In the same post, you answer that no, everything is not calculated and that of course not, things are not consciously weighed, but then you say that you look at your options and pick one.
> 
> So... What do you define to be the process of "looking at your options" if they aren't calculated and they aren't consciously weighed?


Well you cut out the "everythings", which alters the meaning.

It's not "all or nothing"
That's been my point from the beginning.
Not everything is calculated, and not everything is consciously weighed.

Sometimes I act "without thinking", sometimes I carefully consider and plan.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

cainvest said:


> Yes life teaches us things and we have genetic traits. Not sure why you believe that takes away from being in control or makes it an illusion, it alters our thinking process for future decisions.
> 
> Working hard yields benefits for the vast majority of people, most know that so most do it ... that's not coincidence.


Working hard requires willpower. Your willpower has been trained throughout your life by all the coincidences you've faced and their outcomes. Lower blood glucose affects your brain, which affects your willpower.

People who lived through positive events to which they associated a cause-effect will increase their willpower, even though those events were coincidences.

It starts with the Pygmalion effect and it grows into a self-fulfilling prophecy and Galatea effect. But there's also the Golem effect which is the opposite.

The point being that when you were born, you didn't have any beliefs as a new born. But others' actions and beliefs towards us is the start of the loop. And then there's noise introduced to that loop due to the random events that we go through. What level of willpower you had at that moment will impact your decision process and the unknown outcome of your decision will increase or decrease your willpower, and so on.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

You know why Mark Zuckerberg wears always the same clothes? Because even the smallest decision-taking that we have to do will decrease what's left in willpower when facing more important decisions. It's called "decision fatigue", "ego depletion". Which means less willpower.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> You know why Mark Zuckerberg wears always the same clothes? Because even the smallest decision-taking that we have to do will decrease what's left in willpower when facing more important decisions. It's called "decision fatigue", "ego depletion". Which means less willpower.


Yes, he understands the power of hard work and good decisions.
Because it isn't "all luck".

Even your own examples show how it isn't "all luck"


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> Yes, he understands the power of hard work and good decisions.
> Because it isn't "all luck".
> 
> Even your own examples show how it isn't "all luck"


It doesn't. You are looking at Mark Zuckerberg as where he is now and what kind of decisions he's taking now.

But you miss the point of where he comes from. The new born Zuckerberg starting with a set of genes, a specific environment and then going through a series of coincidences which shaped him.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> Working hard requires willpower. Your willpower has been trained throughout your life by all the coincidences you've faced and their outcomes.


IMO it should read ...

Your thought processes have been trained throughout your life by all the events you've faced and their outcomes. And yes, sometimes an event may be linked to a coincidence of some type.

I still don't know where you are going with this .... Are you still trying to say "coincidence (instead of luck)" will get you more places than hard work?


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> You know why Mark Zuckerberg wears always the same clothes?


Efficiency.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> It doesn't. You are looking at Mark Zuckerberg as where he is now and what kind of decisions he's taking now.
> 
> But you miss the point of where he comes from. The new born Zuckerberg starting with a set of genes, a specific environment and then going through a series of coincidences which shaped him.


Yes, that, an all the opportunities along the way, along with a lot of hard work and good decisions got him where he is today.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

cainvest said:


> Efficiency.


No and yes. He said it himself, it's to reduce the effect of "decision fatigue". Which yes, helps him being more efficient when it comes to important decisions. More efficient in the sense that he kept his willpower high.



cainvest said:


> Are you still trying to say "coincidence (instead of luck)" will get you more places than hard work?


It's not "coincidences" *or* "hard work".

"Hard work" *is* a coincidence, because it's the result of a series of coincidences. Because it depends of your willpower. How much willpower you have depends of the series of events (coincidences) you've went through and their outcome.

As a new born discovers the world, he tries things. He has no intent, no belief. His random action has an outcome. When the outcome is positive, it reinforces that action and creates a belief, *whether there's cause-effect or not*. So he'll do it again. If it's negative, it'll decrease his willpower and he will stop doing it at some point when the outcome keeps being perceived negatively.

"_Experience teaches us no less clearly than reason, that men believe themselves free, simply because they are conscious of their actions, and unconscious of the causes whereby those actions are determined._" Baruch Spinoza


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> No and yes. He said it himself, it's to reduce the effect of "decision fatigue". Which yes, helps him being more efficient when it comes to important decisions.


Apparently the same reason Albert Einstein wore the same thing all the time, one less unimportant thing to think about each day.


MrBlackhill said:


> It's not "coincidences" *or* "hard work".
> 
> "Hard work" *is* a coincidence, because it's the result of a series of coincidences. Because it depends of your willpower. How much willpower you have depends of the series of events (coincidences) you've went through and their outcome.


You do known most life events are not coincidences right?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

cainvest said:


> Apparently the same reason Albert Einstein wore the same thing all the time, one less unimportant thing to think about each day.














cainvest said:


> You do known most life events are not coincidences right?


Give me an example of what is _not_ a coincidence? And explain me the chain of cause-effect of that event. And that everything in that chain was controlled and predictable.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> Give me an example of what is _not_ a coincidence? And explain me the chain of cause-effect of that event. And that everything in that chain was controlled and predictable.


Coincidences are open to a wide variety of meanings depending on your perspective. Some may think things happen due to a religious influence, others predetermined fate, etc. Best short description for me is ... Coincidences are chance events with underestimated probability.

Examples: 
Event -> Went to a motorcycle race in the US and got to talk with my favorite racer.
Coincidence -> I was out riding my bike, stopped for gas and ran into my favorite racer.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> It's not "coincidences" *or* "hard work".


Yes, it's luck *and *hard work, or coincidences *and *hard work.




> "Hard work" *is* a coincidence, because it's the result of a series of coincidences. Because it depends of your willpower. How much willpower you have depends of the series of events (coincidences) you've went through and their outcome.


Okay, in that case, no free will, it's all deterministic and there is no point to anything.

I reject that, as I reject the fully deterministic universe. In which case there isn't luck anyway.

If everything is fully formed by the environment (ie luck) then we're completely deterministic and there is no luck or coincidence anyway.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

cainvest said:


> Coincidences are open to a wide variety of meanings depending on your perspective. Some may think things happen due to a religious influence, others predetermined fate, etc. Best short description for me is ... Coincidences are chance events with underestimated probability.
> 
> Examples:
> Event -> Went to a motorcycle race in the US and got to talk with my favorite racer.
> Coincidence -> I was out riding my bike, stopped for gas and ran into my favorite racer.


I'm talking about coincidences/events that shape who you are, who you've become.

Like I've wrote before, sure, there's decisions that have cause-effect, as I said, if you jump out of a 3 storey building, you'll die or hurt yourself very badly. It's not a coincidence. But what got you there beforehand? That's a series of coincidences.

For instance, about your event... Why have you met your favorite racer? Because you went to a race. But why did you go to that race? Maybe because you like motorcycle races. But why do you like motorcycle races? And so on.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> I'm talking about coincidences/events that shape who you are, who you've become.
> 
> Like I've wrote before, sure, there's decisions that have cause-effect, as I said, if you jump out of a 3 storey building, you'll die or hurt yourself very badly. It's not a coincidence. But what got you there beforehand? That's a series of coincidences.
> 
> For instance, about your event... Why have you met your favorite racer? Because you went to a race. But why did you go to that race? Maybe because you like motorcycle races. But why do you like motorcycle races? And so on.


But if you want to meet your favourite racer you'd go to a race that they are at, likely one where you can get better access.
You wouldn't go on a solo camping adventure if you wanted to meet them.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> I'm talking about coincidences/events that shape who you are, who you've become.
> 
> Like I've wrote before, sure, there's decisions that have cause-effect, as I said, if you jump out of a 3 storey building, you'll die or hurt yourself very badly. It's not a coincidence. But what got you there beforehand? That's a series of coincidences.
> 
> For instance, about your event... Why have you met your favorite racer? Because you went to a race. But why did you go to that race? Maybe because you like motorcycle races. But why do you like motorcycle races? And so on.


You asked ... "Give me an example of what is _not_ a coincidence?" So I did. 
I gather you understand the difference from my perspective now. 

To follow up, both of those examples (they actually occurred) _may have_ played a role in shaping who I am or what I do in the future from those points in time .... nobody knows. Those events (coincidence or not) are no different from any other past events so knowing "why did you go to that race?" or "why do you like motorcycle races?" are just the same question at different points in time.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> Okay, in that case, no free will, it's all deterministic and there is no point to anything.
> 
> I reject that, as I reject the fully deterministic universe.


It is totally expected that we disagree and that many will disagree, because the free will debate has been going on for centuries.

Though I never said that the universe was deterministic. I just said that you are the product of coincidences.

*Galen Strawson*


> In the free will debate, Strawson holds that there is a fundamental sense in which *free will is impossible, whether determinism is true or not*. He argues for this position with what he calls his "basic argument", which aims to show that no-one is ever ultimately morally responsible for their actions, and hence that no one has free will in the sense that usually concerns us. In its simplest form, the basic argument runs thus:
> 
> You do what you do, in any given situation, because of the way you are.
> To be ultimately responsible for what you do, you have to be ultimately responsible for the way you are—at least in certain crucial mental respects.
> ...


-----



cainvest said:


> To follow up, both of those examples (they actually occurred) _may have_ played a role in shaping who I am or what I do in the future from those points in time .... nobody knows. Those events (coincidence or not) are no different from any other past events so knowing "why did you go to that race?" or "why do you like motorcycle races?" are just the same question at different points in time.


I was breaking down the series of events that has led you to meet your favorite racer. The trigger to any event will come down to something that you didn't control. The reminder is the illusion of control.

Even if we take a decision that has cause-effect, it doesn't prove free will.

A great reading : _The Illusion of Conscious Will_ by Daniel M. Gilbert.



> People typically experience a thought that is consistent with a behavior, and then they observe themselves performing this behavior. As a result, people infer that their thoughts must have caused the observed behavior. However, Wegner has been able to manipulate people's thoughts and behaviors so as to conform to or violate the two requirements for causal inference. Through such work, Wegner has been able to show that people often experience conscious will over behaviors that they have not, in fact, caused – and conversely, that people can be led to experience a lack of will over behaviors they did cause. For instance, priming subjects with information about an effect increases the probability that a person falsely believes is the cause. The implication for such work is that the perception of conscious will (which he says might be more accurately labelled as 'the emotion of authorship') is not tethered to the execution of actual behaviors, but is inferred from various cues through an intricate mental process, _authorship processing_.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> The trigger to any event will come down to something that you didn't control.


You mean one thing I didn't control in the past or I don't have control over anything I do?


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

cainvest said:


> You mean one thing I didn't control in the past or I don't have control over anything I do?


You _ultimately_ don't have control over anything.

You do what you do, in any given situation, because of the way you are.
To be ultimately responsible for what you do, you have to be ultimately responsible for the way you are—at least in certain crucial mental respects.
But you cannot be ultimately responsible for the way you are in any respect at all.
So you cannot be ultimately responsible for what you do.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> You _ultimately_ don't have control over anything.
> 
> You do what you do, in any given situation, because of the way you are.
> To be ultimately responsible for what you do, you have to be ultimately responsible for the way you are—at least in certain crucial mental respects.
> ...


Ok, so you are basically arguing that it's all luck because we don't have free will.
I reject that premise, as it's not useful for people who want to make their situation better.

I think you do have choice, therefore you have some responsibility.

In any case even if you're not responsible, nobody else is either. So you might as well take responsibility.


This whole "it's all luck" thing is a the mindset of a loser who doesn't want to take responsibility.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> Ok, so you are basically arguing that it's all luck because we don't have free will.
> I reject that premise, as it's not useful for people who want to make their situation better.
> 
> I think you do have choice, therefore you have some responsibility.
> ...


You are right that believing there's no free will is not useful.
That doesn't mean that free will exists.

Otherwise, I could also say this : "I reject the idea that humans have no bigger purpose because having no purpose is not useful, therefore humans have a bigger purpose."
Yeah right, tell me what's the bigger purpose of humans with regards to their place in the Universe?

Why do you live? What's your purpose? Your purpose in life is a construct of yours. How would you live day by day if you believe you have no purpose in life? Same thing goes with free will, it's a construct that helps you going through life. Why do you think some people believe in Heaven? They need to anchor themselves to the belief that doing things right will be rewarded, that it has a purpose.

(If you say that your purpose is to raise your kids or to help the society, sure, but what for? What's the ultimate goal? That someday in the far far future, everybody will live in peace and harmony? And then what?)


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

There's many things that the human can't get his mind around it. Free will is one of them.

Does time exists?
Do we live in a world that has no beginning and no end? How is that possible?
Why are we conscious? Is it another construct?


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

You should apply for a job at the philosophy factory @MrBlackhill

I like absurdism myself but it doesn't pay the bills


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

m3s said:


> You should apply for a job at the philosophy factory @MrBlackhill
> 
> I like absurdism myself but it doesn't pay the bills


Honestly I'm just having fun with these debates. Just a hobby to challenge ideas and opinions.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> You _ultimately_ don't have control over anything.


That's likely true to those that are omnipotent looking at us humans seeing our enitre past and future in one glimpse. Of course, from our perspective, free will fits the bill nicely.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Honestly I'm just having fun with these debates. Just a hobby to challenge ideas and opinions.


You're not really "challenging"

You're simply arguing a deterministic universe with no free will and calling it "luck"


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrMatt said:


> You're simply arguing a deterministic universe with no free will and calling it "luck"


Ya, could have just led off with "Do we live in a deterministic universe?" 

Of course, from the point of the view of the observer (us), we do have free will. There is also the possibility that there is a built in amount of uncertainly in our material universe that doesn't allow a deterministic one.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> You're simply arguing a deterministic universe with no free will and calling it "luck"


No, I'm debating about free will, not determinism. It's not because we have no free will that the world is deterministic. The debate is much bigger if you add determinism. I'm only focusing on free will. I don't want to debate about determinism, I won't say where I stand about whether the world is deterministic or not.

There's also people who say that we do have free will, but the world is deterministic. There's people debating for every combination of beliefs.

Read a bit before replying.



> In the free will debate, Strawson holds that there is a fundamental sense in which *free will is impossible, whether determinism is true or not*.
> 
> You do what you do, in any given situation, because of the way you are. *(therefore not deterministic)*
> To be ultimately responsible for what you do, you have to be ultimately responsible for the way you are—at least in certain crucial mental respects.
> ...


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

Take this for example.

Let's say you take decisions based on the flip of a coin. Since you can't decide whether the coin will fall on heads or tails, you have no free will. But is it deterministic? No, it depends on the flip of the coin, which is random. Unless we start the debate whether the flip of the coin is truly random or not. That's the other debate I don't want to start.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Take this for example.
> 
> Let's say you take decisions based on the flip of a coin. Since you can't decide whether the coin will fall on heads or tails, you have no free will. But is it deterministic? No, it depends on the flip of the coin, which is random. Unless we start the debate whether the flip of the coin is truly random or not. That's the other debate I don't want to start.


You're arguing the external forces that are so complete an so compelling that you have absolutely no free will, and there isn't even a chance that you could ever control any part of your mind or physical body.
If that's the case, the coin would have also experienced similar factors and is simply at the whims of the environment. Similarly the "decision" to follow the coin flip wasn't random either.

Quite simply without some free will, by something, somewhere, it must be a deterministic universe. Because there is nothing that will direct it, other than the natural settling of entropy.

Now if there is some small, miniscule level of free will or freedom, somewhere in the universe, your argument falls apart.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrBlackhill said:


> No, I'm debating about free will, not determinism. It's not because we have no free will that the world is deterministic.


Without a deterministic world free will definitely exists due to uncertainty unless one brings in "higher power" based implications.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> You're arguing the external forces that are so complete an so compelling that you have absolutely no free will, and there isn't even a chance that you could ever control any part of your mind or physical body.
> If that's the case, the coin would have also experienced similar factors and is simply at the whims of the environment. Similarly the "decision" to follow the coin flip wasn't random either.


You're just arguing where you stand on two different subjects based on your beliefs. You say the world is not deterministic and you also say that there is free will. That's your opinion and it's ok.

I'm not sure you understood my coin flip example though.

Let's say the world is not deterministic and that we assume that there is free will.

50 years from now, we discover that when we make a decision between "yes" or "no", it's just the result of a purely random connection in our brain. So we don't control that connection, the same way that we don't control the result of the coin flip. Therefore we would discover that free will doesn't exist. Let's say that we also discover that the connection in our brain is purely random. That there is in fact such thing as pure randomness. That there is a quantum randomness. Therefore we would discover that the world is not deterministic. In this hypothetical world, there's no free will, but the world is not deterministic.

As of today, if the result of a coin flip is purely random or not, we don't know. In fact, at the moment, humans cannot purposely generate pure randomness. The solution is to observe what we believe to be pure randomness.



> Random.org is a website that produces random numbers based on *atmospheric noise*


Does a computer have free will? No. Does a computer reading the atmospheric noise is displaying a deterministic number? No. (Unless we find out that the atmospheric noise is deterministic)


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrB, you're really going off in multiple directions in that last post ... not sure what most of that has to do with people making a choice on their own.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

MrMatt said:


> That's simply not true.
> I wouldn't be where I am without hard work.
> 
> I don't know any successful people who didn't work hard.
> ...


I'm with you Mr. Matt.

Sure, there is pure luck in life but if you want to put the odds of success in your favour, work hard. 

Hope and luck is not a strategy.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

My Own Advisor said:


> Hope and luck is not a strategy.


Relying on luck is not a strategy, I agree. No one should rely on luck, that's a premise I fully agree that we should all work hard.

Lots of people work very hard. Yet they have very, very different outcomes.

Every people I know work very hard. Some work hard to stay above the water, while some work hard to get a bigger yacht. And it's actually the former who's working the hardest.


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## bgc_fan (Apr 5, 2009)

I saw these stories and thought that they were worth looking at and fall in this thread. They are both about people getting their finances under control or starting out in life. They certainly strike me as "lucky" in a sense, but they haven't the foggiest idea that their situations aren't exactly common.

1. Young people have no excuse for not buying a house, says landlord, 22
He's 22 years old, lived at home and worked for family business. Enough to save $11k pounds for a downpayment on a $115k pound house. Not sure how a bank would lend the balance based on a $14k pound annual salary, but there it is. Oh, and he was gifted a Ford Fiesta instead of buying a Mercedes like his friends. He points to his lack of drinking and not buying clothes as the secret to his success... all the while ignoring the fact that his parents were independent business owners and probably had something to do with the mortgage. Of course, once he got one house settled, he started leveraging.

2. How one 31-year-old paid off $220,000 in student loans in 3 years
An older article, with similar story. 31 year old woman had a $220k student loan debt and a $38k job in D.C. Moved back home in Illinois with her parents and worked for her mom at a non-profit at the same salary. She got married and her mother gifted them a condo, which they proceeded to rent out and moved in with her grandparents. They leveraged again and bought some other properties. When her grandparents moved south, they moved back in with her parents. All the while paying down the student loan with all their combined income. She wrote a book on her experience and wants to pass herself as some sort of financial guru.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

bgc_fan said:


> They certainly strike me as "lucky" in a sense, but they haven't the foggiest idea that their situations aren't exactly common.


Of course



> 1. Young people have no excuse for not buying a house, says landlord, 22


If you're 22, and you spent 3-4 years working part time, living at home, it should be possible to save $11k.



> 2. How one 31-year-old paid off $220,000 in student loans in 3 years


How one 31 year old had others pay off their student loans.

How about "I saved and worked my way through my university education, by living in a $#[email protected] appt, and eating ramen".
That's possible for many.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

bgc_fan said:


> She wrote a book on her experience and wants to pass herself as some sort of financial guru.


Maybe I should write a book since I moved out the day I graduated high school and was already paying my own car/phone/sports/clothes for years before that.

Most of these financial guru books seem to be written by people milking some passive income. My energy is better spent elsewhere because people don't want to hear financial advice - I've tested it on young colleagues.

It's better to be adaptable than lucky. There are all kinds of opportunities that people don't take because they committed themselves to something that turned out "unlucky"


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

m3s said:


> Maybe I should write a book since I moved out the day I graduated high school and was already paying my own car/phone/sports/clothes for years before that.
> 
> Most of these financial guru books seem to be written by people milking some passive income and forget to mention selling financial advice. My energy is better spent elsewhere because people don't want to hear financial advice - I've tested it on young colleagues.
> 
> It's better to be adaptable than lucky. There are all kinds of opportunities that people don't take because they committed themselves to something that turned out "unlucky"


Doesn't need a book.








Scott Adams’ Financial Advice


A few years ago I read some short financial advice by Scott Adams, the author and creator of the Dilbert cartoon. It’s great advice–it’s perfect for 95% of Americans’ financ…




www.mattcutts.com





I had a handful of young staff that wanted advice, the other half didn't.
The older guys thought I was trying to scam them.


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## bgc_fan (Apr 5, 2009)

MrMatt said:


> If you're 22, and you spent 3-4 years working part time, living at home, it should be possible to save $11k.


The way it's written is that he saved it in one year. I don't have an issue with the savings. I have the issue that he overlooks that not everyone is going to be gifted a car, low rent and a job working for the parents, in addition to being able to get a $100k mortgage based on $14k income.



MrMatt said:


> How about "I saved and worked my way through my university education, by living in a $#[email protected] appt, and eating ramen".
> That's possible for many.


Not surprisingly, those stories are so common that they don't make news. 



m3s said:


> Maybe I should write a book since I moved out the day I graduated high school and was already paying my own car/phone/sports/clothes for years before that.


It seems to be a common theme when you hear these stories, like the Toronto FIRE couple who credit not buying a house for their great lifestyle. They get into the news and then try to leverage that into some book or financial guru type side hustle.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> It is better that we pretend. But it is what it is, we *pretend*.
> 
> "_Ignorance is the greatest source of happiness._" -Giacomo Leopardi
> "_Every moment of happiness requires a great amount of ignorance._" -Honoré de Balzac
> ...


In mental institution people are always happy 😁


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