# Canopy Growth Corp CGC



## Mortgage u/w

Would like to get some opinions on this one. Financials are not spectacular but the potential of the company intrigues me. If its product is fully legalized, I can see the stock soar really high.
What do you think is a good timeline for this stock to start showing interesting numbers? It is rated as a good buy from some analysts. Just wanted some feedback from the great investors we have on our forum. Thanks.


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## noobs

I'm jumping in here to hear opinions from gurus (full disclosure, I've owned stocks BED since spring 2015 which was bought by CGC later)

(just for reference I'm including a previous thread http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showt...legal-Cannabis-(Weed-Marijuana-pot-dope-etc-))


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## Butters

I am no where near great, but I heard Jason Donville talk on BNN several months ago about marijuana saying that they are just speculation stocks, and when marijuana gets legalized, and they start bringing in the numbers he is looking for then he will investigate. He might be late to the boat, but at least he won't sink.

I think it's obvious marijuana will get legalized within Justin's 4 years of Majority... but will it be in 2015, or 2016 or even 2017, we don't know, but I'm pretty confident it won't be tomorrow.... you could be catching these stocks in their hype right now, and be stuck with a low return stock for a couple years, then when it does get legalized who knows what the prices will be and if it will bring in enough profits.


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## Mortgage u/w

Thanks for the replies. I know its just speculation now but I think we all know where the profits will be if legalized. The way I see it, you have more to gain than to lose given its current low stock price. I would not invest much. I think 500 to 1000 shares at this time is a reasonable gamble. Lets not forget that the company still generates a revenue due to the medicinal marijuana being sold and I don't see the govn't shutting the door on that.


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## Flash

I'm in this stock. Made 500$ profit for now. Still holding a portion. I will be keeping trading it. It can only go up really with Trudeau in charge.


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## daddybigbucks

Before the Fed election, I went thru all the Medicinal marij companies and found CGC the best of the worst.
It is way over valued but its riding the hype.
I didn't put any real money in but its fun to double up on play money.


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## noobs

http://news.liftcannabis.ca/2015/12/04/22122/

From the speech from the throne today

“To that end, the Government will introduce legislation that will provide greater support for survivors of domestic violence and sexual assault; that will get handguns and assault weapons off our streets; and that will legalize, regulate and restrict access to marijuana.”

For the Gov.Gen to mention this, it has lots of investors excited and the CGC closed 3% up... I suspect come monday when this is all over the news during the weekend.. we will see lots of volume across the board 
http://marijuanaindex.com/index-canada/


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## NewBrunswick

I have tremendous faith in this stock and its future value, it's currently my largest holding.

I have a medical marijuana prescription myself and have seen first hand how many people are pouring in to replace their current prescriptions with this plant. It's not if the price will increase it's a matter of when. The market is larger than anyone can fathom, its a replacement for every phsychological and pain medication...try to think for a second at just how limitless that market is.

Not to mention it will soon be fully legalized, seems incredibly foolish to miss out on this opportunity.


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## OnlyMyOpinion

NewBrunswick said:


> ...medical marijuana... its a replacement for every phsychological and pain medication...


Really?



> ...try to think for a second at just how limitless that market is.


Great, that should address all of Canada's productivity and deficit challenges.


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## NewBrunswick

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Really?
> 
> 
> Great, that should address all of Canada's productivity and deficit challenges.


I'm not a doctor or pharmacist so I can't speak on all of its applications but everyone I know with a mental illness or chronic pain has qualified for a prescription. People of all ages are switching from pills to pot.


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## Waterman

Thank you to daddybigbucks I too find CGC to be a bit over-valued. 
I do not have much investing experience but I am planning to gamble with medical marijuana I'm looking at purchasing some smaller companies like TSXV:APH and TSXV:EMH.

Are there any red flags anyone immediately sees with a medical marijuana investment? Of course the usual risks apply when dealing with a penny stock.


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## noobs

uptrend. since Monday it`s up 10%+

Thursday Q report and legislation meeting... lots of optimistic investors.


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## ML91

noobs said:


> uptrend. since Monday it`s up 10%+
> 
> Thursday Q report and legislation meeting... lots of optimistic investors.


Crazy day today. Medical users can now grow their own marijuana...


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## NewBrunswick

Yeah what a ride that was. Just shows how easily this stock is impacted by media/politics. If marijuana does become legal it will see such a climb


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## bflannel

^That's an opinion. 

So I've owned CGC since the liberals won that fancy democratic election thing :stupid: and I know very knowledgeable medical users are buying from tweed and having positive experiences. The amazon of Canadian pot traffic. Regulated, Digitized, and Capitalized. I see the ability to grow ones own pot pretty naive to impact this stock this much in the long run. We can grow our own food yet we all go to the grocery store. Not to say this security isn't chalked full of what-if risks.


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## noobs

to sum up the allard injuction is upheld meaning private growers can keep growing (medical use).. which pretty much means it`s a status quo.... but lots of investors misinterpreted this whole thing and started to run hence the dip.. it`s a shame since CGC also got the oil license the same day but got the fear dwarfed the good news.

6 month for the gov to change the law on this (aka get the ball rolling towards legalization)

other companies like OGI or APH also got the oil license


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## noobs

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/philpott-un-marijuana-legislation-legalize-1.3544554


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## D-ru

I have been following a few of these pot stocks lately, I realize no one has a cyrstle ball but is this a good time to jump in? There are so many companies you can buy some a lot cheaper then CGC (Today closed @$2.79). What are your thoughts about what company to play in and after todays news is it a good time to buy at these prices.


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## Hippie

I've swing traded this stock a few times in the past but recently bought in big time for the longer haul. It will drop at any time there is a negative media story. There are bounds to be delays and hurdles for the Liberals to pass this legislation. I bet it will hit 2.50 a couple more times, but when it takes off after legalization I'd it bet easily tops $10.
In that regard, 2.79 seems like a good buy. I'm planning on getting more after I wrap up a few trades.


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## damaaster

Hippie said:


> I've swing traded this stock a few times in the past but recently bought in big time for the longer haul. It will drop at any time there is a negative media story. There are bounds to be delays and hurdles for the Liberals to pass this legislation. I bet it will hit 2.50 a couple more times, but when it takes off after legalization I'd it bet easily tops $10.
> In that regard, 2.79 seems like a good buy. I'm planning on getting more after I wrap up a few trades.


My brother owns CGC - I decided to go with Organigram instead. Both have done well since the news. I bought OGI at 44 cents - it topped 1.30 today!


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## Hippie

damaaster said:


> My brother owns CGC - I decided to go with Organigram instead. Both have done well since the news. I bought OGI at 44 cents - it topped 1.30 today!


Great buy on your part. Hope you bought lots. I just may pick up some on the next dip.


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## damaaster

Definitely wish I woulda bought more...haha. But hindsight is always 20/20 I suppose...


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## daddybigbucks

i bought as much as i could stand before the election. Happy to hold but I couldnt handle anymore because its in a bit of a bubble.
I think energy stocks have more potential than this.


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## LongShorts

Gapped down today. Nothing in the news to support it. Place a small buy at $2.60


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## Hippie

Ya, I should have sold on the spike and re-bought lower.


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## Oldroe

I day and half and the dope smokes bail. Not much staying power. Going to find a stock that gives 3 day buzz.


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## Hippie

Oldroe said:


> I day and half and the dope smokes bail. Not much staying power. Going to find a stock that gives 3 day buzz.


That's the beauty of it....customers have to keep buying......every day mon.


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## NewBrunswick

The stock closed up 14.49% today. Tomorrow it opens on the TSX, graduating from the TSXV. It's the first medical marijuana company anywhere to make it onto a major exchange.


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## Alpine12

*Canopy Growth Corp CGC - update*

Any new opinions or comment for Canopy Growth Corp CGC?


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## NewBrunswick

Alpine12 said:


> Any new opinions or comment for Canopy Growth Corp CGC?


10 Reasons why it's a good company to buy:

http://davidsnow.ca/investments/10-reasons-to-buy-canopy-growth-corp/


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## noobs

It`s been a fun few days and there`s def a bigger interest from all over, especially now that they are on the TSX


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## 1sImage

What would be the benefit to legalization for a company like this? Would that not bring the price down per ounce , and allow others to just start making it?


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## Spudd

1sImage said:


> What would be the benefit to legalization for a company like this? Would that not bring the price down per ounce , and allow others to just start making it?


My thinking is that currently, a lot of marijuana is imported illegally, or grown locally illegally in people's houses. Legalization will mean that legal sources such as CGC will be the main suppliers as opposed to today where the main suppliers are under the table. Also, legalization may increase demand, if some people who don't currently use because it's illegal and/or they don't know where to buy it, suddenly have it as a legal option with a local above-board supplier.


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## 1sImage

K I'm in.... Gonna check this 3 years from now!!


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## Bort

1sImage said:


> K I'm in.... Gonna check this 3 years from now!!


I am also in. I have no idea where these bigger cannabis stocks (CGC, APH, MT, OGI mainly), will be years from now. However I have a strong suspicious there will be a decent rise in SP in November when the task force releases it's recommendations to the government. If the stocks surge after this, I will probably cash out most of my holdings and re-enter once the dust settles and the stocks pullback a bit.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-marijuana-task-force-1.3659509

Second, once they finally do legalize (not banking on this until probably 2018), there will likely be a huge upswing in these stocks.

Obviously a very volatile sector right now and for years to come, but I still see a big upside to these stocks with a small amount of risk (ie. legalization doesn't happen). Personally, I'm diversified between CGC, APH, MT, and OGI... biggest holding being CGC. If you're buying and holding enjoy the big run-ups, and be prepared to sit through some large pullbacks!


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## madmoney

Been a great few days for this stock on the news of a partnership with Snoop Dogg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-weed-shares-higher-on-snoop-dogg-partnership


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Glad the news release accurately called him a rapper and not a musician or a singer.


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## hollyhunter

Canopy Growth Corporation renews agreement with XIB Consulting Inc. Under agreement, common shares will be issued to XIB at a price of $ 3.97 per share Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage.


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## Nordic

The price action on CGC is reminiscent of the fuel-cell bubble of 2014 (see the BLD and PLUG charts for an illustration). 
Everyone out there is tossing money at it as though a >70% gain in 3 months is normal and not due for a significant pullback to reality.

Tempted to short at this level; the valuation is batshit insane.


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## Argonaut

So.. this stock is trading at 55x sales, and that's supposed to be viable? Pure hype, a bubble, whatever you want to call it. It's an industry that has question marks, and the product has no real opportunity for differentiation. If you've made money on it, have fun while it lasts.. you don't want to be the one left "holding the bag".


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## Nordic

Argonaut said:


> So.. this stock is trading at 55x sales, and that's supposed to be viable? Pure hype, a bubble, whatever you want to call it. It's an industry that has question marks, and the product has no real opportunity for differentiation. If you've made money on it, have fun while it lasts.. you don't want to be the one left "holding the bag".


Are you holding a short position? I'm reallllly tempted to, but as the saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I wish there were Put options available on the Montreal Exchange.


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## hollyhunter

CANOPY GROWTH CORPORATION (CGC.TO) From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term. Looking for breakout at 5.85 with a short term target of 6.83.


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## Argonaut

Nordic said:


> Are you holding a short position? I'm reallllly tempted to, but as the saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
> I wish there were Put options available on the Montreal Exchange.


Nah, the risk-reward for shorting anything isn't appealing to me. I'd rather play downside with puts like you said, but on liquid options in the US.

Also, from above it appears that the robots are still bullish on this one.


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## madmoney

Broke $6.00 today, started at $5.90 and is now at $6.47, with a 'high' of $6.62.


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## noobs

and it broke $7 today.. I've been holding since the beginning. This run is scary even with the small pull backs of 5-10%.


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## 1224

Rough day today.


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## james4beach

Posted at 4:20

A very quick & dirty review of Canopy Growth's financials, the June 30, 2016 statements. VERY CRUDE.
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0...17_FS__June_30_2016_1.pdf?7314086816962793395
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0..._17_MDA__June_30_2016.pdf?7314086816962793395

Balance sheet seems OK. However they are issuing shares hand over fist. This makes it hard to analyze them based on the last financial statements, because the balance sheet looks so different already by today. It's a very rapidly changing situation.

They started exporting marijuana for German medical use. Interesting. The first known incidence of dried cannabis being exported from a Canadian licensed producer to anywhere in the G7.

But it is a money losing business right now. Negative income. The gross revenue is in a strong uptrend, but their expenses wipe out any profit. This is extremely speculative -- you must only buy this if you think they can turn the business into something profitable. They even spell it out in their MD&A



> The Company has a history of net losses, may incur significant net losses in the future and *may not achieve or maintain profitability*


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## james4beach

This article has some analysis: http://www.fool.ca/2016/10/14/canopy-growth-corp-how-high-can-this-marijuana-stock-go/

The cited analyst thinks it might turn profitable by fiscal 2018, and only then barely positive earnings at $0.02 per share.

At today's share price, that's a *forward P/E of 354*


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## doctrine

My take:

Canopy Growth is a $800 million market cap company that might have revenue this year of $40 million for what is becoming a commodity, a literal weed, that grows anywhere and is actually legal for their own customers to grow in their house for free (medical marijuana). *20* times revenue. Junior mining companies are transforming to 'marijuana' stocks and applying for licenses and buying warehouses so that they can be bought out at crazy premiums. This will end poorly. If you've made money, for your own sake, sell a majority of what you hold.


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## Hippie

doctrine said:


> My take:
> 
> Canopy Growth is a $800 million market cap company that might have revenue this year of $40 million for what is becoming a commodity, a literal weed, that grows anywhere and is actually legal for their own customers to grow in their house for free (medical marijuana). *20* times revenue. Junior mining companies are transforming to 'marijuana' stocks and applying for licenses and buying warehouses so that they can be bought out at crazy premiums. This will end poorly. If you've made money, for your own sake, sell a majority of what you hold *in December*.


Fify.


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## hollyhunter

Technically, CGC.TO has been showing support at 5.10 and resistance at 7.35.


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## bflannel

I took my initial investment off the table via profit taking and I'm almost ready to do it again! Delighted to have this nearing double digits but it's so early for this company, the details have been pointed out many times through this discussion. To me it's a great business, but until this market matures I'll be maintaining a balanced portfolio. 

Their Ontario based growing facility has had its ribbon cut. This is the first such facility in the industry and will position Tweed as the *only* licensed producer capable of breeding new products to specific cannabinoid profiles.

To me this is a massive competetive advantage and a good enough reason to stay in at this valuation. As I sit here typing this a MMJ user is being interviewed on the news with respects to treating PTSD. This is all hot button stuff and good for business... especially when you're the only pharma company creating custom tailored medicines in government approved facilities.

But for the love of the dollar, you must take appropriate defensive measures. For me I would never purchase this stock at these levels – given current market knowledge and conditions. But I love the business.


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## hollyhunter

From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: CGC.TO is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term. A potential breakout play above 9.98.


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## Oldroe

No stock with 7 million in sales is worth $9.


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## hboy54

Oldroe said:


> No stock with 7 million in sales is worth $9.


Just for fun I went for a look on TD ...

Revenue $18M
Price/sales 58
Book value $1.25
Market cap $1.1B
Earnings -$0.07

How do you even sell something like this short? It would have been rational to sell short many, many, dollars ago...

hboy54


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## damaaster

I think you mean it's not worth $11(and rising) lol


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## doctrine

Insane value. This will end poorly - 10 times book value. Their own report shows a continuation of the downtrend in pricing. There is no reason margins will ever increase in this industry. A share issue will be the only way to boost book value but expect that will signal the top.


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## My Own Advisor

Have fun with the speculation - count me out!


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## madmoney

I took up a small position in it in Aug....up 166% as of today. Wish I had taken up a larger position. Can't imagine buying in right now.


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## Flash

Mine auto-sold when a 3.75 price was triggered sometimes in August. I think it went to 3.74 a few times for a day. If it wasn't for that I would've still had (and probably still sold it a while back at around 6$). 

Never again sell orders. Only alerts.


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## daddybigbucks

Its not the valuation that is pushing this stock higher, its the A-type personalities buying/selling.

I recently sold enough shares to get my original purchase out. Now im just going to try and time it to get maximum out of the rest.


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## damaaster

I never bought CGC (though my brother did around 3.00)

I bought OGI - am currently up 321%.


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## 1sImage

Nothing to see here folks... move along...


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## killuminati

wowzers. Almost hit 18 (17.86) then pulled back fassssst under 14.


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## jargey3000

what are these guys onnnn!!!??


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## kjmcrae

From FP: Marijuana stocks trading halted on TSX after massive jumps of up to 44% trip circuit breaker


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## Argonaut

In my time following the stock market, this is the craziest thing I've ever seen. I was reading that some guys on BNN shorted it. That's also crazy. I think for these marijuana stocks you just have to ignore them.


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## jsut_

Kind of glad I'm not on CGC's wild ride today.


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## jargey3000

Argonaut said:


> In my time following the stock market, this is the craziest thing I've ever seen. I was reading that some guys on BNN shorted it. That's also crazy. I think for these marijuana stocks you just have to ignore them.


Just don't inhale !!!


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## doctrine

24.3 million shares traded hands from a float of 113 million. 36 million traded as well in the previous 5 days.
From a high of $17.86 to a low of $9.75
This has been taken over by momentum traders, momentum shorters, robots, and crazy people. It's kind of sad, it is actually a company with normal and growing operations, but the stock has become radioactive waste that no one can touch. Although a lot of it is trading, a lot of original owners have now left the stock or will because of the insanity.


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## jargey3000

doctrine said:


> 24.3 million shares traded hands from a float of 113 million. 36 million traded as well in the previous 5 days.
> From a high of $17.86 to a low of $9.75
> This has been taken over by momentum traders, momentum shorters, robots, and crazy people. It's kind of sad, it is actually a company with normal and growing operations, but the stock has become radioactive waste that no one can touch. Although a lot of it is trading, a lot of original owners have now left the stock or will because of the insanity.


...should NEVER have legalized it ....see what happens???
and, why is POT.T down today???


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## james4beach

Brokers are cancelling stop orders on CGC and other marijuana stocks due to the crazy volatility.

CGC market cap is now $1.55 billion. 10 million shares volume on November 17, insanity.

This kind of thing is part of the nature of the stock market. Sometimes there are crazy bull runs and whether it's rational or not, there's money to be made. Others will join too late and lose tons of money.


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## dotnet_nerd

Are any of you old enough to remember Unique Broadband Systems (UBS) in the late 90's?

Very similar action, this was a penny stock that exploded to about $17 at it peak before crashing. Insane volumes and volatility, many noobies got wiped out in that fiasco. Fortunately I wasn't one of them.

But that was a generation ago, younger ones haven't gone through and learned from the tech bubble.


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## jargey3000

...why am I getting "the munchies" all of a sudden !!??


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## hollyhunter

CANOPY GROWTH CORPORATION (CGC.V) From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term. A break of 3.25 could move it up to 3.80 in short term.


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## james4beach

Even if you're willing to buy a totally speculative gambling ticket, say as a momentum gamble, it's nuts to buy a stock so far above its 200 day moving average: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CGC.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62328484612

Just a mild correction in CGC could easily take it down 60% to $4, which would still keep it above the 200 day average. That means it could drop 60% and remain in an uptrend -- that wouldn't end its days as a successful stock!

Consider this: if CGC really is at the start of a long term uptrend, then it will be going up for a long time. During such a climb it will occasionally fall down back to its 200 day average. See Constellation Software for an example: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSU.TO&p=D&st=2009-01-01&en=(today)&id=p39312672520


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## chantl01

I bought in to CGC at $1.90. So even if it drops down to $4 occasionally, I'm comfortable with that. Given the increasing openness to legalizing both medical and recreational marijuana worldwide, and the percentage of the existing market in Canada that this company has acquired, I truly believe that the value of the company (and stock price) will increase over time.


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## Mortgage u/w

chantl01 said:


> I bought in to CGC at $1.90. So even if it drops down to $4 occasionally, I'm comfortable with that. Given the increasing openness to legalizing both medical and recreational marijuana worldwide, and the percentage of the existing market in Canada that this company has acquired, I truly believe that the value of the company (and stock price) will increase over time.


Hope your 'hunch' is correct. You're in over 5 times your money. I would sell most of it now to lock in your 'winnings' and let the rest ride. I don't believe this is what stock investing should be all about although many people have made it this way. Its great to speculate, but as the saying goes, "if its too good to be true....."


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## hboy54

Mortgage u/w said:


> Hope your 'hunch' is correct. You're in over 5 times your money. I would sell most of it now to lock in your 'winnings' and let the rest ride. I don't believe this is what stock investing should be all about although many people have made it this way. Its great to speculate, but as the saying goes, "if its too good to be true....."


It is generous to even call this speculating.


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## My Own Advisor

Very generous! Kudos to folks riding this wave.


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## AnonymouslyInvesting

NB - pot definitely does seem to have some significantly positive uses and a mass of people who want to see it legalized...and the way things are going, I would expect to see it legalized, but remain heavily regulated. All good things for the pot companies. 

The main issue with pot companies as an investment is that the numbers clearly don't justify the share price, if you're looking at current valuations, so the price movements are simply a function of speculation. No one really knows how big the market is or what regulation will do to the size of the market.

I think those who are invested right now will make money, perhaps a lot of money, but I think the problem is knowing when to get out. I could definitely see a tech bubble-like scenario playing out where we see a rush of companies go public and that just saturates the market with all of the attention it will likely bring.

Tread carefully...but for now giddy-up.


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## Oldroe

Burning money and massive debt the shorts will win this game.


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## Tetsujin

Oldroe said:


> Burning money and massive debt the shorts will win this game.


Don't know what to think. Market cap is 1.5B, price is at $12 again and they bought MT this week and shareholders of MT will receive CGC common shares at $0.71, that explains why MT shares were pumped from ~$5.7 yesterday to $8.05 today because that was the agreed priced at Nov 30th. MT was sold by ~$430M if I remember reading this morning.

I lost a huge position on this stock when they were shrinked to 7.4$ when IIROC halted the stock for a fair trade. 

I don't think it will go down again until it's maturity and the bubble bursts but in the meantime is a good opportunity to make money for those who want to take the risk thousands at $12/share. 

This week a new listed company made around +450%, I'm talking about ICC, an Uruguayan company based in BC. Maybe this is another opportunity to bet.


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## 1224

Tetsujin said:


> Don't know what to think. Market cap is 1.5B, price is at $12 again and they bought MT this week and shareholders of MT will receive CGC common shares at $0.71, that explains why MT shares were pumped from ~$5.7 yesterday to $8.05 today because that was the agreed priced at Nov 30th. MT was sold by ~$430M if I remember reading this morning.
> 
> I lost a huge position on this stock when they were shrinked to 7.4$ when IIROC halted the stock for a fair trade.
> 
> I won't think it will go down again until it's maturity and the bubble bursts but in the meantime is a good opportunity to make money for those who want to take the risk thousands at $12/share.
> 
> This week a new listed company made around +450%, I'm talking about ICC, an Uruguayan company based in BC. Maybe this is another opportunity to bet.



Being from Uruguay I jumped at the chance to buy into this company. Got in at 1.25 only bought 1000 shares. Lets see where she goes.


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## Tetsujin

1224 said:


> Being from Uruguay I jumped at the chance to buy into this company. Got in at 1.25 only bought 1000 shares. Lets see where she goes.


Same thing that I did this morning. They are gonna serve also Uruguay because it is completely legal there. Thanks Pepe Mujica (former President of Uruguay)!


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## familyman

An interesting article on ICC: 

http://www.equity.guru/2016/11/30/i...p-icc-v-rockets-to-132m-valuation-on-vapours/


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## doctrine

CGC is acquiring MT at 20 times revenue and which is not profitable. No issues here though. They have a 58% gross margin! Amazing! Never mind that they somehow turned it into a -40% net margin. How many companies does CGC actually consist of now? MT also comes with a bucket of recent acquisitions.


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## Bort

If you've got nerves of steel I'm sure you will be heavily rewarded by this stock and others (APH, OGI, ACB, SL, THC, excluding MT for now) within a years time. However, there is also BOAT loads of money to be made from simply buying the large dips that occur after the run-ups and selling a short while later. Legalization WILL occur, so they'll inevitably climb back up for now.

As for CGC, I actually picked up some MT today as it's trading at a decent discount since the acquisition deal is still a couple months out. Probably won't hold it that long anyway 

ICC seems like a bit of a hype stock that will be forgotten about fairly quickly. A gem on the IPO day, but with Uruguay having a population of only 3 million how much traction will it actually get? I wouldn't touch it!

Lastly, watch out for the EMC (Emblem Cannabis) IPO on Friday. That should be interesting... going to be a volatile day for sure across the sector  I believe the IR person for EMC will be taking questions on Reddit tomorrow if anyone is interested.


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## Bort

edit: double posted


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## Bort

AnonymouslyInvesting said:


> I think those who are invested right now will make money, perhaps a lot of money, but I think the problem is knowing when to get out. I could definitely see a tech bubble-like scenario playing out where we see a rush of companies go public and that just saturates the market with all of the attention it will likely bring.
> 
> Tread carefully...but for now giddy-up.


To protect against this, I would only invest in companies that have their licenses to produce and hopefully also to sell. HC makes this easy, http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/dhp-mps/marihuana/info/list-eng.php

Luckily it takes years to get fully licensed, so it should be easy to pick out the empty shell companies that like you said, will emerge. giddy-up


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## Oldroe

CGC made 18 mil last year they just spend 450mil for this one on Bennett rd Bowmanviile. They are burning money and racking up debt at incredible rate.

Now just when are they going to turn a profit. Not in 10 years maybe not 20 years .

This is exactly like the tech buddle.


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## Bort

I agree, they seem to be biting off a lot lately. CGC is clearly aiming to position themselves as the industry leader with pretty much a sole focus on the recreational market. Others are taking it slow and steady.

The Mettrum deal you're talking about was an all-stock deal, no cash. There's dilution but certainly no 450mil in debt.


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## Flash

Was looking to get my feet a bit more wet in pot, but since CGC just skyrocketed, I don't think they will be a good value.

Was looking at either Aphria or Aurora. Aurora is actually a company that did not spike like crazy based on reports or news. But Aphria, according to google, is the only company that seems to have a positive earnings per share.

Any suggestions on these 2?


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## Tetsujin

Is this a good moment to buy again or more when stocks are going down? CGC is at $9.7. 
APH, OGI, ACB, SL, N, MYM, AGS, CYX?

ACB, OGI and APH has been the preferred stocks before CGC. I have faith in ACB and its financial reports. Maybe APH will be the next buy of CGC as MT. I guess.


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## jerryhung

This week, RED RED RED for MJ stocks, at least for ones I saw - CGC/MT, ACB


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## Oldroe

The only way to increase sales/profits is to consolidate. If there is 500,000 medical weed people across Canada you aren't going to increase that number so you buy smaller producers is necessary. I think it will be 10 years before any are profitable.


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## familyman

Oldroe said:


> The only way to increase sales/profits is to consolidate. If there is 500,000 medical weed people across Canada you aren't going to increase that number so you buy smaller producers is necessary. I think it will be 10 years before any are profitable.


I'm not sure I agree. There definitely aren't 500,000 medical weed people as there are multiple uses for marijuana, anything from relieving stress, pain management, to helping glaucoma, epilepsy, and asthma. Who do you know that isn't affected by stress these days? Of course, most people don't do anything about it, but the market is definitely there. Especially if you don't have to smoke it, but rather take a capsule with a controlled dose. There are even studies that have shown that in the states where marijuana is legalized, people were taking less pills and other medicine. I think you will be surprised how quickly these companies will actually start to show a profit....


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## OnlyMyOpinion

And on that theme: _Dec 21, 2016 - Canopy Growth Corporation is pleased to announce that the recently formed Canopy Health Innovations (CHI) has closed an offering... CHI will use the proceeds to establish general operations and begin clinical research into the effectiveness of clinically ready whole plant cannabis drug formulations and dose delivery systems on specific indications.
CHI will operate as a pure research incubator and is strategically positioned and focused on creating an IP (intellectual property) portfolio that can be built into commercial opportunities for CGC and its subsidiaries.... "By defining, in clinical terms, how to apply specific cannabis profiles and delivery systems to certain conditions we can drive physician acceptance and grow the market at the same time."_
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canopy-health-innovations-closes-financing--announces-leadership-appointment-607795526.html

I only recently became aware how the product is used in some areas of palliative care. THC/CBD ratios and forms of product all get discussed. We are not talking about people getting stoned, we are talking about appetite stimulation, nausea and pain control. Who knew.


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## Oldroe

The main reasons for getting your medical is already determined, so there is no way to increase your customer base. Add to this more are dying off than are being added.

And if you make brownies that's more cost, more food and drug people.

The only real advantage these company's have is there head start on legalization and do they have the capacity to grow. They all have the pipeline for seeds and plant locked.


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Yes, would be interesting to dig into their long term plans and growth projections. I wonder if an aging demographic helps? I also recall reading about some positioning themselves internationally, expecting global opportunities. Who knows, when Coca Cola first started I don't imagine they envisaged 'teaching the world to sing'.


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Oldroe said:


> ... there is no way to increase your customer base. Add to this more are dying off than are being added.


Just heard a clip re this on CBC - maybe the real future growth in this industry is in *DOGGY DOPE*. After all, pet owners seem to have no constraint when it comes to spending money on their pets. *Cannabis for canines? Medicinal pot products a growing trend for Toronto pet owners*


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## scorpion_ca

Superweed: What’s really in today’s marijuana?

http://www.cbc.ca/marketplace/episodes/2015-2016/superweed


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## Oldroe

You never know. Just talked to a friend that spend 12k on surgery for the family dog.


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## spdr1812

Mettrum CGC Deal . I own MT but not CGC right now . 

Just curious of a breakdown at todays ( Jan 13th close ) prices and details moving forward . I've only went through one company merge/stock split math nightmare and wondering how this one is lining up . 

Recieved my "book" on the special meetings between the 2 but just looking through it makes my head hurt . 

Keep MT through consolidation and get CGC stock ? 
Sell MT before deal is closed ?
Buy CGC on a dip and add to current MT stock that will get absorbed ?

Thanks for any insight on this ..


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Notice that *CGC* trading symbol changes to *WEED* on the TSX starting tomorrow Feb 1. 
Appropriate no doubt, but a bit removed from the company name Canopy Growth Corp.


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## 1224

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Notice that *CGC* trading symbol changes to *WEED* on the TSX starting tomorrow Feb 1.
> Appropriate no doubt, but a bit removed from the company name Canopy Growth Corp.


As an investor AND a customer, I'm not too sure about how I feel about the new symbol.
I liked CGC, sounded like a legit comopany.
WEED, takes the legitimacy out of it. I think I'm going to stick to the CGC name.


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## doctrine

What is going to happen to WEED if Canada doesn't regulate recreational pot by the next election? Trudeau isn't exactly doing well on his promises these days.


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## 30seconds

IMO it will drop in price and they will continue doing they are doing and just wait a couple more years till it becomes legalized. It would make for a good buying opportunity. Also they do supply medical marijuana and are adventuring into Europe


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## 1224

Profits are coming out on Tuesday. Buy or short?


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## spdr1812

You would think profits will be s%#^t since its just getting going and all the $$ is going to M&A ... ? 2B market cap with maybe 30 million in profits ( guessing of course but i think last release was 22mil )


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Hmmm, up 17.9% last week. 
Now let's all put our hands together and sing, "I want to take you higher, I want to take you higher...boom lacka lacka lacka, boom lacka lacka lacka...."


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## jargey3000

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Hmmm, up 17.9% last week.
> Now let's all put our hands together and sing, "I want to take you higher, I want to take you higher...boom lacka lacka lacka, boom lacka lacka lacka...."


gotta love Sly...
But, why the drop today???? bad batch???


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## OnlyMyOpinion

jargey3000 said:


> gotta love Sly...
> But, why the drop today???? bad batch???


_A 180 per cent increase in revenue is a barometer of a successful quarter for most companies, but it managed to disappoint analysts following Canada’s first billion dollar marijuana company... 
turned a profit for the first time in its short history, booking $3 million in net income, compared to a net loss of $3.3 million in the prior year period...
Revenue rose 180 per cent year-over-year to $9.8 million, lower than analysts’ estimates of around $10.9 million.the prior year period..._
http://business.financialpost.com/news/agriculture/canopy-growth-corp-almost-triples-revenue-as-number-of-patients-soars


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## jargey3000

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> _A 180 per cent increase in revenue is a barometer of a successful quarter for most companies, but it managed to disappoint analysts following Canada’s first billion dollar marijuana company...
> turned a profit for the first time in its short history, booking $3 million in net income, compared to a net loss of $3.3 million in the prior year period...
> Revenue rose 180 per cent year-over-year to $9.8 million, lower than analysts’ estimates of around $10.9 million.the prior year period..._
> http://business.financialpost.com/news/agriculture/canopy-growth-corp-almost-triples-revenue-as-number-of-patients-soars


thanks only..."missed it by _that_ much!!!


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## Mortgage u/w

Company is still operating at a loss, generating less than $10 million per quarter, yet has a market valuation over $1.5 billion. 

That's a lot of weed to make up!!


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## doctrine

Any thoughts on this now? The stock did pretty much exactly what I thought until Constellation Brands bought 10% of the company with warrants for 10% more and the whole industry exploded. I also found it interesting how Canopy secured a two year supply agreement with New Brunswick for their retail market. I'm trying to price out potential market profits and it seems to me like it's not impossible that there could be $2B of sales in the first year and thus potentially over $1B in gross profits. While that is not a lot compared to the $15-20B of market capitalization of marijuana companies, it's not really that crazy, and the market might be larger, plus these companies may have a huge head start as well as access to capital markets for launching into other countries as more markets open up. It's just interesting. A limited amount of branding might also be possible in the new regulations which favours those first out of the gate. Maybe I am starting to smoke the good stuff? 

I think the #1 risk is oversupply, which doesn't seem to be a problem maybe at rec market open, but I think 2-3 years out there might be so much weed that it will literally be growing out of everyone's ears. They haven't invested *that* much capital to date, in fact I don't think anyone even Canopy will pass far beyond $500M in invested capital, thus the returns are just crazy. My #1 counter argument is that Constellation just came in and bought a chunk rather than start from scratch..maybe there is something to their intangible assets.

I mean, Aurora is building a 1 million square foot greenhouse in Edmonton that will produce 100,000 kg of marijuana a year, opening up in 2018. It's costing them $100M and even at $5/gram selling price would result in $500M in sales and what, $300M in gross profits? That's a potential gross return on capital of 400%, in maybe 18 months. That's crazy. Sigh.


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## Mortgage u/w

I think the biggest risk is still legalization. Every day I hear some news that there are issues with either meeting the deadline, splitting profits, who's gonna sell, who's gonna benefit......just this morning I heard how the government is proposing to give 50% of the taxes back to the provinces however, the municipalities must primarily benefit from it. 

The closer we get to the July 1st deadline, the further we seem to be getting. I don't find it normal that we have 6 months to go and there is still no clear defined plan. Politicians are still debating the whole thing.

The pot companies are getting ready and _seem _to be doing well - but its all still speculative and everyone is just riding the wave. I only see a gambling oppurtunity - just not a quality investment oppurtunity yet.


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## doctrine

Nfld just signed a supply deal with Canopy for 8000 kg a year. That is more than Canopy has sold in the last year, and for a province that is less than 2% of the population. At that level, the Cdn market could be 500,000 kg in the first year, or about $5 billion retail. I'm not sure what capacity will be in the 12 months from July 2018, but I would estimate at best it will be half of that level.


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## Butters

Some people on reddit have been trying to tackle the numbers given that Nfld deal and Colorado history.

https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/7jvusa/canopy_growth_recreational_price_target/

He is still editing his numbers from comment feedback, but some interesting thoughts. 

If there are no hiccups, I could see Canopy worth double in a couple years.

Canopy will be set up first and is the safest in this volatile sector.


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## Nerd Investor

Butters said:


> Some people on reddit have been trying to tackle the numbers given that Nfld deal and Colorado history.
> 
> https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/7jvusa/canopy_growth_recreational_price_target/
> 
> He is still editing his numbers from comment feedback, but some interesting thoughts.
> 
> If there are no hiccups, I could see Canopy worth double in a couple years.
> 
> Canopy will be set up first and is the safest in this volatile sector.


I don't know; I get that it's the biggest by market cap and certainly one of the best choices but Aphria is already profitable and has that deal with Shoppers Drug Mart if they get approved as a distributor. I'm not personally invested in either one but still interesting to follow. I do have a _super_ small position in Newstrike "HIP".


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## hebsie

Canopy Growth to Detail Quebec Cannabis Production Partnership on 12/18

Media Advisory – Cannabis Production In Quebec
MIRABEL, QC, Dec. 17, 2017 /CNW/ – Media are invited to join Stéphane Bertrand, CEO of Les Serres Stéphane Bertrand Inc. and Adam Greenblatt, Quebec Brand Manager for Canopy Growth Corporation as they make an important announcement related to cannabis production

Date: December 18, 2017
Time: 11:00 am EST
Location: The Boutique at Les Serres Bertrand – 11730 Route Sir Wilfrid Laurier, Mirabel, QC J7N 1P5.


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## AlwaysLearning

20% + today. Crazy


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## doctrine

I made a big trade on WEED over the last month on my theory in this thread and basically that they should be trading at all time highs, given the growth of the market. My $19.80 purchase fell 15% to almost $17.00 before rebounding slowly, and then going hyperbolic over Xmas. Sold yesterday at $30 flat for a nice 51% gain in 4 weeks. I think $30 is a fairer price for WEED, but now that I have a better grasp on the industry and potential valuations, I'll keep looking. WEED is still very undervalued, in my opinion, compared to APH and ACB, and would be my primary pick for the space. 

But I wish it wasn't as volatile. There was a 28% difference between the high and the low today. It would drive anyone with a significant position quite crazy.


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## indexxx

Bumping this because WEED has applied to be listed on the NYSE. Stock has been on a good trajectory the last few days.


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## can_84

applying for NYSE is good but how does that have any bearing on the business and its bottom line (Net Income)? I would think this is speculating .... I think this sector is running on hype, unless you bought before in 2016 or early 2017 your risking allot of pain....

Note that I did buy in 2016 but I plan to dump in the next month depending on what the senate does tomorrow withe bill C-45....


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## james4beach

Looks like the whole sector has been doing great. HMMJ up 10% in a week.

If we see these pot stocks exceed their previous all time highs, lots of new money could flood in. Ugh.


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## doctrine

There is going to be a big reckoning in pot stocks about maybe 2 years from now. There will be an insane amount of capacity and wholesale prices will probably fall up to 50%. Only the biggest with scale will likely survive. Regulations have evolved (i.e. relaxed) and companies are able to retrofit existing industrial farming greenhouses in a matter of months, which is happening at an incredible scale. The good news for those ACB/APH/WEED holders, is that these guys are the kings of capacity and I expect will be around when the dust settles. It will probably be gangbusters over the next two years though.


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## hboy54

A director sold all his holdings at $65 and made off with 22M. A nice living ... From today's G&M insiders report.


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