# Question for those who don't believe in bear markets



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I was looking at charts of different countries and regions lately and one that I noticed was Brazil's
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EWZ&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61982753118

This is an ugly picture. It's 5 years of continuing stock declines, and in this 5 year period it's down around -56% after dividends.

There are some people on this message forum who don't seem to believe in bear markets, or aren't worried about them, or are unfazed by them. Or who think that stocks only go up. *So my question is, what will you do if the Canadian stock market acts like Brazil's and declines 50% or more?*

Would you change anything you're doing? Some of you folks have stock portfolios of 500k or more, and you'd be seeing your equity and net worth drop by enormous amounts.

Will you just keep buying throughout the decline? How long are you willing to wait for the prices to bounce back to their original values? Are you willing to wait 10 or 15 years, if that's how long it takes?

I know that dividends bring you comfort, but if you have a 500k portfolio that shrinks to 250k, does the 20k in annual dividends really compensate you for the horror of losing a quarter million $ of capital?


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## livewell (Dec 1, 2013)

That sure is an ugly bear. If you are in accumulation mode, and are continuing to save/invest that is a good situation, your investment dollars will go further and your portfolio will come back very strong if you have the fortitude to ignore the 56% drop in the 'paper' value of you portfolio. The more tricky situation is when in withdrawal (retirement) situation (Which I am). If my holdings dropped 50% whilst I would not be happy (really) the key thing I would be concerned about is the longevity of the bear. 5 years is getting up there. I have 33% of my portfolio in case and fixed income (GIC ladders mostly), this cash wedge would allow me to re-balance (keep at 67% equities) by buying more, and avoid selling equities for ~3-4 years on its own, factor in the dividend stream which (If previous bear markets are indicative) should only be marginally affected and that stretches to 6-8yrs. 

Thats my theory - I don't think I would like to test it out, after 5 years I would probably be starting to second guess my strategy and possibly looking to go back to work as a fall back. Another more regular bear like the 2007-2009 with 50% fall but 2-3 years would be less of a concern for me.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

As livewell pointed out, those close or in retirement are would be the most affected. I would guess dividend returns would likely be reduced as well from a number of sources, hard to say without knowing the cause(s). What one would do depends on lots of factors, like is it a global bear market? In the end you do what any good investor should do, access the situation and adapt as best you can. If you like you can adopt certain strategies to reduce capital losses, like the one from faber discussed a few times here on CMF.

It may also be valid to point out the those sitting on 500k+ portfolios are only there because of the stock markets. If one compared what their investments would be had they played it safe (GICs, HISA, etc) they'd like be no better off IMO.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

A slow decline over 5 years would be quite painful for sure, but this Brazilian stock decline is measured in US dollars, so it's possible that holders in Brazil weren't even subject to that pain directly (unless they do a lot of buying in USD ofc).

Given that, such a prolonged bear _would_ probably begin to test my will in sticking to my parameters in my long-term plan; I like to think I can outlast such hiccups however, and after the 2008/09 meltdown I feel I've built what I consider a fairly solid long-term strategy.

Love these questions James, keep em coming, you are, imho, a major asset to the collective brain that is CMF.. be that what it may :listening_headphone


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

A long slow grind down over 5-10 years would be painful, if only because it would seem to be something fundamental. Not sure what my reaction would be after, for example, 5 years of a downward grind.

The last financial crisis wasn't so much a concern. Equities were down 40+% but it all happened in about 6 months. I had retired in 2006, so I did not like to see that BUT I also did not panic...because of my fixed income component that carried me through that crisis. I saw it as a buying opportunity in which I did deploy spare cash.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

Christine Hughes Weekly Macro Insights 

(not a feel good summary)

scroll down a bit for 7 minute audio:
http://archive.aweber.com/otterwoodcapm/54X8D/h/Christine_Hughes_Weekly_Macro.htm


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

^ouch.. and I've just dribbled 4K into tdb900 based on my so-called "strategy"
oh well, I'm in it for the long haul. Could add up to CDN equity purchases for a while, we'll see how it goes


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

mrPPincer said:


> ^ouch.. and I've just dribbled 4K into tdb900 based on my so-called "strategy"
> oh well, I'm in it for the long haul. Could add up to CDN equity purchases for a while, we'll see how it goes


I've done the exact same thing over the last month... Of course there is the 20K I dumped in 4 months ago... Youch.

Fortunately I'm heavily weighted in US$ so I'm barely down anything. (Actually up a fair bit)


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

^I've tried over the last few years to have more of my my exposure to the US market through CDN based companies.
Still, I'm weighted heavily in CDN equity, so, I guess I'll see how it works out.
P/E ratios are so bad down there, but growth does look good too so who knows.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

Why would couch potatos care what the index is doing? Rebalance and done, no sweat, like these people ^
Why would competent stock pickers care what the index is doing? Each company owned should stand on their own merit.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

james4beach said:


> I was looking at charts of different countries and regions lately and one that I noticed was Brazil's
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EWZ&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61982753118
> 
> This is an ugly picture. It's 5 years of continuing stock declines, and in this 5 year period it's down around -56% after dividends.
> ...


 There was a bear market in gold in which gold was lower 100 years latter. Japan stock market made its high back in the 80s. Brazil is not an extreme example. The financial/economic shaking we are headed for I am not sure if dividends will help much. How many companies will even be able to afford to pay dividends ? When the S--- hits the fan not even sure if put holders will be able to collect.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

There's another 7 minute video here from Christine Hughes, dated late June.
http://archive.aweber.com/otterwoodcapm/CC5Rz/h/Christine_Hughes_Weekly_Macro.htm

She's much more positive on global (ex Canada) equities.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I was looking at charts of different countries and regions lately and one that I noticed was Brazil's
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EWZ&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61982753118
> 
> This is an ugly picture. It's 5 years of continuing stock declines, and in this 5 year period it's down around -56% after dividends.
> ...


what would you do james if we had a modest up and down bull market for the next 10 years along with inflation and you found that your portfolio purchasing power adjusted for inflation had not kept up ... in other words you were poorer 10 years from now because you had relied on underperforming risk-free investments?

i am always amazed at your hubris james, you invest as though you are always going to be right

i try to invest for both being right and being wrong by holding assets that will do ok in both bull and bear scenarios

if you have a 50/50 portfolio of stocks/bonds (or bond substitutes like a gic ladder) and your equities tank 50% you are only down 25% overall since your fixed income would prosper

so you would adjust to having 25% less money

in the end its all about cash management, you don't want to get caught in a liquidity crisis and have to sell anything

you muddle through


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## livewell (Dec 1, 2013)

A lot of the responses focus on withdrawal (Because that is where the risk really is.) I want to emphasize if you are in accumulation stage and 5+ years away from any withdrawal you really want to see a bear market or two over the next 20 years. It is the bear market opportunities that will allow you to compound your portfolio if you are sensible. The recent 5 year low volatility bull market has been somewhat 'unusual'. For good growth over the next longer term period higher volatility is a big benefit to the accumulator. This is a good blog on this article


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

The term bear market is a misnomer for what we are probably facing in the next while. I've got $250k in equities and I doubt I will put much more in. Its getting too volatile even though I hold ETFs. Up and down and this crisis and that crisis and these earnings and that analyst etc. I don't want the majority of my income tied to such a thing.

If we have a large cohort of baby boomers leaving the work force either forced or on time and many do not have a lot of pension of retirement cash flow, that takes a big bite out of consumer discretionary which most of our economy is based on. Does china and india fill that gap? I don't know. Probably but it might be rocky. The other scary thing is tech is becoming very disruptive now and even causing deflationary pressures, but also freeing up capital to invest in other areas.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Come bull or bear market over the next 10 years the average investor will lose money. The market is like a poker game the money will flow not to the average player but the strongest players/player.

A few years back I read that the average investor in the best performing mutual fund of the last 10 years lost money even though the annual return of the mutual fund averaged in the double digits. The average investor lost by selling low & buying high.

The length of the time stocks were up in North America compared to the length of time man has walked on earth is very small. The marketing by the sales people that sells mutual funds & stocks has done an amazing job of marketing stocks always go up over the long run. Civilizations have come & gone, most of the time the earth has been here stocks have not gone up for there were not any stocks most of that time.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

livewell said:


> A lot of the responses focus on withdrawal (Because that is where the risk really is.) I want to emphasize if you are in accumulation stage and 5+ years away from any withdrawal you really want to see a bear market or two over the next 20 years. It is the bear market opportunities that will allow you to compound your portfolio if you are sensible. The recent 5 year low volatility bull market has been somewhat 'unusual'. For good growth over the next longer term period higher volatility is a big benefit to the accumulator. This is a good blog on this article


*+100*

Anyone younger than 40-45 should pray... beg... cry... for a long, deep bear market. Severe bear market followed by a raging bull market is the best case scenario for a young investor. Conversely, bull market in the first half of your investment career followed by a bear market in the second half is the worst case scenario.

*James*: as a young investor, you should embrace bear markers, not fear them.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Great replies everyone, thanks!

Oh, I'm very much looking forward to the bear market, so don't worry about me.

I think Buffett actually said something like, investors should *not* want higher stock prices. They should want lower stock prices so that they can buy more for the same dollar. I very much want lower stock prices.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

Buffett also said he felt sorry for fixed income investors. Imo, if the idea of retirement appeals to you, don't wait for an 08/09 magnitude event before buying some equities.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Buffett has an enormous fixed income portfolio within Berkshire Hathaway. That stock portfolio that is much hyped in the media is just one part of Berkshire, but the media tries to portray Buffett as a stock picking guy. "Look, you can replicate this at home!" -- eh, not quite. Buffett has enormous fixed income holdings, incredible cashflow generation through insurance companies, and direct ownership of many businesses.

Buffett has also said repeatedly that US valuations are very high. He has stated in the recent year's letters that he expects forward returns in the stock and bond markets to be rather low, and says this is a huge challenge for both him and pension funds.

I'd venture to say that many of our forum members have more optimistic views of the stock market than Buffett himself has.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Look at some of Buffets recent big deals, there are STILL opportunities out there.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

James You seem to be terrified of 'loss'
Imo the stock market has cycles(we all know this)
Life also has cycles!(forget about money)
Just like the market all our lives have cycles of joy/transitions/challenges/triumph....
You do what you can and try to the make the best of it

To live life you can't shelter yourself imo
Nobody gets out alive anyways
When we all die we all die(we are dust buddy in the end all of us a speak amongst billions of people that have lived once before)
Life is a winding road

Do you not notice changes of season in your own life?some season lasting years?
I get the impression your scared to really live

Its proven market returns are the best investment known and the reason for this is exactly because of the fear
Either you play or you don't


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Buffett has an enormous fixed income portfolio within Berkshire Hathaway. That stock portfolio that is much hyped in the media is just one part of Berkshire, but the media tries to portray Buffett as a stock picking guy. "Look, you can replicate this at home!" -- eh, not quite. Buffett has enormous fixed income holdings, incredible cashflow generation through insurance companies, and direct ownership of many businesses.



Sure, BRK has a big fixed income component but... http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...way-asset-allocation-warren-buffett/29620473/



> "Berkshire Hathaway has about $27 billion of fixed-income holdings and another $15 billion in loans for a total of $42 billion in fixed income," says Horan. "Berkshire Hathaway has borrowed about $200 billion, however. So, their net fixed-income holdings are negative $158 billion. This levered position implies that investors should adjust their equity allocation upward, not downward."
> 
> In the absence of having the market value of operating company holdings, Horan said he would *value Berkshire Hathaway as at least 100% equity, not less*.


I don't think you can support your investment philosophy by reference WB.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Buffett has an enormous fixed income portfolio within Berkshire Hathaway. That stock portfolio that is much hyped in the media is just one part of Berkshire, but the media tries to portray Buffett as a stock picking guy. "Look, you can replicate this at home!" -- eh, not quite. Buffett has enormous fixed income holdings, incredible cashflow generation through insurance companies, and direct ownership of many businesses.
> 
> Buffett has also said repeatedly that US valuations are very high. He has stated in the recent year's letters that he expects forward returns in the stock and bond markets to be rather low, and says this is a huge challenge for both him and pension funds.
> 
> I'd venture to say that many of our forum members have more optimistic views of the stock market than Buffett himself has.


a more accurate characterization is that buffet has said he has a hard time finding companies that fit his criteria which tends toward staples and products and services that are well established like ketchup and railroads

these are all now bid through the roof right now ... though he seems to have done okay with kraft

also, he has famously said that when he dies he wants his wife's money to be put in an sp500 fund so i think he some faith in the power of at least usa equities

as far as the forum goes, we have a bear cave and a bull run going with adherents in each, i'd like to think i am a member of both groups


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

livewell said:


> A lot of the responses focus on withdrawal (Because that is where the risk really is.) I want to emphasize if you are in accumulation stage and 5+ years away from any withdrawal you really want to see a bear market or two over the next 20 years. It is the bear market opportunities that will allow you to compound your portfolio if you are sensible. The recent 5 year low volatility bull market has been somewhat 'unusual'. For good growth over the next longer term period higher volatility is a big benefit to the accumulator. This is a good blog on this article


 The baby boomers are going to lose on this one. When the boomers were buying houses they pushed up interest rates by their high demand for credit which was a strike against the boomer. Then the boomers went into the stock market on mass to prepare for retirement which might have peaked in 2000. Soon the boomer will be selling on mass. The late boomers had it the toughest because they were late to the party & the soon to be after math


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Buffett has also said repeatedly that US valuations are very high.


Not true.

Last October, he said that US stocks were within the range of reasonableness. S&P 500 has gone nowhere since he said that.

Here's the interview, but he said the same thing in a few other interviews:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSU3y0N60XU


More recently, he said that US stocks valuations depend on the path of the interest rates. If interest rates stay low (not necessarily as low as they are now), US valuations are reasonable. If interest rates rise quickly, US stocks are expensive.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrMatt said:


> Look at some of Buffets recent big deals, there are STILL opportunities out there.


There are opportunities for LARGE players like Buffett who have direct involvement in running businesses. That is so incredibly different from saying there are opportunities for YOU the retail investor who can only buy tiny tiny stakes of public companies.

I'm shocked that people think that these are somehow equivalent. It's like night and day, even though they're both about equity ownership. When Buffett finds an "opportunity" it's because he's had conversations with top management and analysts who are experts in that field. He's able to influence management too, once he buys a major stake. We retail investors cannot do any of those things.

Now his fixed income exposure...

Let's look at Berkshire's latest annual report, specifically the asset-class allocation breakdown under the Insurance segment, on on page 93
Fixed income + cash = $68.8 billion
Equity = $114.9 billion

So that breakdown, between the two categories, is 37% fixed income and 63% equities.

See? Even Buffett is basically 60/40 in equities, much like a common pension fund allocation. And far more fixed income cash & fixed income than many of the people on this forum.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Not only is Buffett 40% in fixed income, but he's also been selling equities over the last two years.

Looking at the balance sheet amounts of all cash/bonds/equities, here is Berkshire Hathaway's stock amounts and % stock allocation:

2013.Q4 115.5 billion, 61.8% of portfolio
2014.Q4 115.5 billion, 57.5% of portfolio
2015.Q1 113.3 billion, 57.0% of portfolio

What I see here is that Buffett is steadily raising cash/bonds and reducing his stock allocation.

Between 2013.Q4 and 2015.Q1, the S&P 500 is up 15%.
Buffett's stock portfolio is down -2%.

What does that tell you? How bullish do you think Buffett is on the stock market? He's selling and raising cash.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I know it sounds a bit strange, but I wonder whether the US election has anything to do with buffet moving more to cash. Just a thought. Donald Trump scares the crap out of me.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

The insurance component does not represent the whole of BRK, the remainder of which is essentially equities and liabilities (ie. negative fixed income).


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Looking at the balance sheet amounts of all cash/bonds/equities, here is Berkshire Hathaway's stock amounts and % stock allocation:
> 
> 2013.Q4 115.5 billion, 61.8% of portfolio
> 2014.Q4 115.5 billion, 57.5% of portfolio
> ...


You see what you *want* to see. But the numbers you posted don't support your conclusion.

1. BRK buys and sells by quarter:

http://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=brk&typ=a

Q1 2015: I don't see any sizable buys or sells, but buying exceeds selling.

Q4 2014: He sold a large position in Exxon. This has nothing to do with the general state of the US market.

Q3 2014: I don't see any sizable buys or sells, but buying exceeds selling.

Q2 2014: I don't see any sizable buys or sells, but buying and selling are roughly on balance.

Q1 2014: I don't see any sizable buys or sells, but buying and selling are roughly on balance.


2. BRK equities went down in Q1 2015 because many top holdings did poorly. AXP was down 16% in the quarter, PG down 10%, KO down 4%, WMT down 4%. Nothing to do with selling.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

One more point:



james4beach said:


> What I see here is that Buffett is steadily raising cash/bonds and reducing his stock allocation.
> 
> ...
> 
> He's selling and raising cash.


No, he is not raising cash. 

Berkshire wholly-owned operating businesses generate tons of cash that they send to Buffett to reinvest. He also receives tons of dividends from his public investments. It's a well known fact that he has trouble reinvesting all that cash as quickly as it comes in the door. It's a world-class problem to have. And it's very different from actively "raising" cash.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

dubmac said:


> I know it sounds a bit strange, but I wonder whether the US election has anything to do with buffet moving more to cash. Just a thought. Donald Trump scares the crap out of me.


I suspect he's looking for another big buy...waiting until his fat pitch comes along.

Trump would be a nightmare for the U.S. and consequently us in Canada.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

dubmac said:


> I know it sounds a bit strange, but I wonder whether the US election has anything to do with buffet moving more to cash. Just a thought. Donald Trump scares the crap out of me.


Again, he is not moving to cash.

His cash pile keeps growing because:

(a) he owns great businesses that generate tons of cash
(b) he needs BIG deals to deploy cash, and those BIG deals are hard to find


As to Trump, he would be a gift to Hillary. She would stomp all over him. All swing voters (typically moderate independents) would vote for her to stop Trump.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I know the insurance business generates cash. I'm just showing what's on the balance sheet... it shows the amount in equities, and it's $113.3 billion at 2015.Q1 versus $115.5 billion at the end of 2013.

Are his stock picks doing that poorly, to have a negative return in that period?

Those are the only two possible explanations, or am I missing something? Either the stocks did very poorly (17% worse than the S&P 500 !!) or Berkshire sold some of their equities.

Goldstone -- I saw your point #2, but is that consistent with Berkshire's equity portfolio posting a -2% performance in a year and a half period where the S&P 500 went up +15% ?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

GoldStone said:


> As to Trump, he would be a gift to Hillary. She would stomp all over him. All swing voters (typically moderate independents) would vote for her to stop Trump.


 White Water /Hillary scares me more then Trump she wants corporations to pay workers more. Yet she does not want to reduce taxes.

The Clintons which have always been in bed with Goldman. According to Martin Armstrong the Clintons are responsible from changing relationship banking to transactional banking. Instead of looking to see if the borrower could pay back the loan. The banks focus shifted to if they could sell the bundled up loans not caring if the borrower could pay back the loan. Having members of government Sachs in key government positions it made it easier to sell bogus bundles of crap.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

livewell said:


> A lot of the responses focus on withdrawal (Because that is where the risk really is.) I want to emphasize if you are in accumulation stage and 5+ years away from any withdrawal you really want to see a bear market or two over the next 20 years. It is the bear market opportunities that will allow you to compound your portfolio if you are sensible. The recent 5 year low volatility bull market has been somewhat 'unusual'. For good growth over the next longer term period higher volatility is a big benefit to the accumulator. This is a good blog on this article


I happen to agree...you WANT prices to be lower. That said it is however disheartening to see the portfolio value dive. What keeps me optimistic and away from selling anything (just buying every few months) is the dividend income is rising even though the portfolio value is falling thanks to dividends being reinvested.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

james4beach said:


> I know the insurance business generates cash. I'm just showing what's on the balance sheet... it shows the amount in equities, and it's $113.3 billion at 2015.Q1 versus $115.5 billion at the end of 2013.
> 
> Are his stock picks doing that poorly, to have a negative return in that period?
> 
> ...


1. Three out of five top positions did poorly since 2013. American Express is down 15%. IBM is down 14%. Wal-Mart is down 9%. These 3 companies have a combined 30% weight in the stock portfolio.

2. Buffett sold two large positions since the end of 2013. Exxon was one, Tesco was the other. Exxon was obviously related to the crash in oil. Tesco was essentially a stop loss. He took a $700M loss. Both sells were company-specific. They have nothing to do with his macro view on the market valuations.


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## livewell (Dec 1, 2013)

My Own Advisor said:


> I happen to agree...you WANT prices to be lower. That said it is however disheartening to see the portfolio value dive. What keeps me optimistic and away from selling anything (just buying every few months) is the dividend income is rising even though the portfolio value is falling thanks to dividends being reinvested.


The psychology of a bear market is very interesting. As someone in withdrawal not wanting to see a bear market I agree with you on the stability of dividend income to help with the emotional issue of losing portfolio value. It is easy to say though as we are sitting in a (very) low volatility period like we have seen in the past 4 years, and even the benefit of living through the last recession may not help (Not sure why people keep referring to it as the great recession either). If we have a long duration bear market more and more people will capitulate and cash in capital investments (That is what causes the bear after all) it takes strong convictions and fortitude to stick with your plan.

I don't see what the obsession with Berkshire is, he could make awful investing decisions for the next 5-10 years and it won't be relevant to me whether investing in equities is a good idea or not.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I could see a bear market lasting for many years, maybe more. My reasoning? The Boomers, on the whole, are running out of money to spend.

By and large, the next generation (mine) is not as well off financially. Boomers will over time, move more money into fixed-income products and out of equities. It will be a sellers market for many years, maybe a decade or more, as Boomers raise cash to fund their retirement.

Boomers who participate in CMF, who are already financially free, need not to worry. Others, more so.

Is there an upside? For Gen X there is. The more people sell stocks in the years to come, I will buy - at lower prices.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The Chinese market is in free fall now.

It lost 8% last night, and it would have been worse had not the losses for 1700 companies been stopped by the 10% daily loss limit.

Most of the losses took place at the end of the session, so it doesn't bode well for the opening today.

The Chinese have lost trillions in equity in a short time period. 

Those losses will have a negative affect on the rest of the world.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

A confluence of factors, the flames of which are fanned by the media and other fear mongers looking for profit and attention, are brining out a negative sentiment far in excess that of the reality. I'm looking at my screen of stocks and everything is red. When investors are this indiscriminate about what they sell, you know that we are reaching an emotional trough. High Liner fish is down nearly 5%. I guess people stop eating fish because of the stock market in China or oil prices.

I concentrate of verifiable facts and not speculation and sentiment which are subject to the whims of human emotions. What would I do if the market declined for 5 years in a row, I don't know. What would I do if a UFO landed tomorrow? I don't know either. I don't sit around contemplating hypothetic catastrophes, for they are potentially endless and doing so has no benefit. I'll roll with whatever happens. 

I continue to focus on the individual business I am invested in at a micro level and how they are doing and not worry about the valuation the market places on them today.


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## tenoclock (Jan 23, 2015)

I would definitely love a bear market in Canada like that in Brazil, would definitely keep on loading up. I don't spend much on discretionary items and I save and invest about 60-70% of after tax income.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Can't say I'd love an extended bear, but I'd pick up some more work and start loading up on more equities again.
Just a hiccup so far, 1% down or so today, did a little buying.
Optimal to me would be a huge plunge and a quick recovery.


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## Doryman (Jul 31, 2013)

I don't post often, but I feel like I should weigh in on this.

As a relatively young investor( 30) I'm not too worried about a bear market. I'll take a hit on the stocks I already hold, yeah, but I'll have a lot of opportunity to keep buying quality stocks when they get pushed down to lower prices. I'll also get to watch a bit of market Darwinism at play, and pick the survivors. I'll happily take short-term misery if it means I have a crack at long-term financial gain. Maybe I'm fortunate that I got into investing from the paranoid survivalist Zerohedge-fanboy side of things; I've already burned myself out on the doom-mongering so I can now balance out my view of things. MAYBE we'll have an economic collapse, and I'll try to deal with it, but I may as well work towards a less-dramatic and depressing future as well.



And if this market nuke goes off and sends us into some Fallout-tier economic collapse.. well, I live in a sparsely populated, resource rich province with a high degree of cultural and ethnic homogeneity (and the stability that, historically, goes along with that). I'm also a tank of gas away from my home village, where people still build their own boats, pick their own berries for wine, and hand-line their own fish supper. I'll miss farting about on the internet, but I'll survive.l s 

This stuff is worth planning for, but I don't think it's worth panicking over.


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