# markets dropping... what's behind it?



## Siwash (Sep 1, 2013)

TSX especially... Chinese dropping demand for can resources? Higher rates on the horizon? 6 days in a row

Is this it?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Well it is fall and we are going through the jaws of death and a whack of space junk and such that only lonewolf could explain, but hey if he is right and it works then good for him. In reality we are in the fall when everyone is working, trading, the market sentiment is very high, the Fed is about to end tapering, elections are coming in the US and the market is overdue for a correction. The Fed however I am not so sure is really ending QE and may just use back doors to get the stimulus in like they did through Belgium.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Nothing special .... as i said many time market is roulette, lately it mostly hitting big red...  and tommorrow it again can hit any colour/number


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

possible recession in 2015
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/us-markets-stocks-poll-canada-idINKCN0HK1Q020140925


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

dubmac said:


> possible recession in 2015
> http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/us-markets-stocks-poll-canada-idINKCN0HK1Q020140925


and other report telling that only in 2015-16 economy will completely recover .... rouletta


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

It will be interesting to see the ISM numbers for October. If that comes in weak then look out below.


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## dime (Jun 20, 2013)

Ya the markets got smoked today. There's quite a bit of fear out there suddenly. 
There's worries about Russia seizing foreign assets. Concern about some terrorist subway plot

The technicals of the S&P 500 topping out don't look good at all. 

QE is ending. The era of low volatility and easy gains is over. 
The S&P valuation can only be supported by earnings growth valuation or PE inflation going forward. If investors are concerned that the growth won't be happening for the year ahead the market will correct. It's possible the index may come down 10%... so for some stocks this may be more like 15%-25%.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102033161


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

It seems everybody has their own interpretation of why investors are selling..........or buying. 

In this day and age...........it is surprising there isn't some way to get a more definitive answer.

Art Cashin walks around the market floor............and talks to people all day..........and he doesn't ever know why anything is happening.

Since all trading flows through brokerages........why not have a 2 second questionaire with every trade............why are you buying/selling?

It doesn't have to be elaborate or lengthy..........just some simple choices.........tick boxes.......anonymously tabulated.

China.......US economic numbers........overvalued..........taking profits.

At least then...........it wouldn't be completely wild guesswork.............as it is currently.


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## dogpower (Feb 11, 2013)

No one knows why markets drop or rise during the day. You can go on any news site and they will pretend they know why markets are up or down today, but the truth of the matter is that there are thousands of reasons why markets can be up or down on any given day. If your horizons are long term, then its best to ignore all the noise because it doesn't matter.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Sometimes they will drop or rise for good reason if something comes out of left field. For example if the government came out and said they would put a new direct tax on dividends out of the blue or something then the market would correct to price in the new reality. Of course it would overshoot and the price would move up and down for a number of days until the price stabilizes and the news is then completely priced in.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

I believed it when one of the analysts confessed that most of the time they come up with bogus reasons to explain the markets' ups or downs - as the same reasons didn't cause any reaction last week or might cause the opposite reaction next month. So here's as good explanation as any:

_Why did markets plop?

Lots of immediate reasons. Apple was punished after people found their new iPhones bend when they sit on them (imagine!) and the system upgrade has bugs. Cheesy Russian politicians are working on a bill to seize foreign assets, like McD stores in Moscow. The ISIS numbnuts may be planning to blow up the NY subway system. Ebola is out of control. Syria’s burning. China’s growth is slowing.

But mostly investors are worried the US economy is growing too robustly, which means the Fed will start raising interest rates sooner than anticipated in 2015. After all, the GDP is romping ahead by 4%, stimulus spending ends next month, the federal deficit is falling and corporate profits have been consistently strong. Yeah, lots of people are on food stamps, unemployed and pissed, but the fact is the investor class has been doing great. The S&P gained almost 19% in the past year, even after the Thursday give-back.

So when enough little shocks hit, with financial asset values sitting at record levels, smart people rebalance. They take money off the table, harvest their gains and invest in under-performing assets. Really smart investors wait for days like this, hope there are more, and buy stuff when it’s cheap._

(c) http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/09/25/the-correction-3/


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

dogcom said:


> Sometimes they will drop or rise for good reason if something comes out of left field. For example if the government came out and said they would put a new direct tax on dividends out of the blue or something then the market would correct to price in the new reality. Of course it would overshoot and the price would move up and down for a number of days until the price stabilizes and the news is then completely priced in.


Sometimes , yes , there is a reason as your example or 9/11,,, but usually there is no any reason...it just happens... what got changed between today and yeaterday?! nothing! but yesterday DJI was 100+ up and today 200+ down..... to find logic is impossible , same like find logic why roulette hit red or black


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

What's behind the drop? The sellers are a bit more eager than the buyers.

Next question!


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I agree Gibor there isn't very often a good reason except momentum where people just pile in stops are tripped and then more pile in.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

The herd has rightfully been worried about the correction that is inevitable and is in the process of making it happen. 83 more sleeps.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Stock prices declined on fears of declining prices. each:


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

GoldStone said:


> Stock prices declined on fears of declining prices. each:


And Bingo was his name-o


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## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Perhaps it was caused by data from the US Initial Jobless Claim report that wasn't good today? Technical wise, all short-term indicators have been on sell mode since last week.


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## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Other than bad news from the US weekly initial jobless claims report came out at 8:30am this morning, I think the huge sell off today had to do with market breaking down from some support levels. In addition, short-term indicators have been bearish since last two-week and showing more sell-off to come during the next few days. So, be careful.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

There are generally no single clear causes of market movements, especially not day to day. The media says a bunch of garbage each time it happens, but you can pretty much ignore that.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Maybe a little Bill Gross effect at least in the German DAX.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...european-bonds-us-credit-markets-are-plunging


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## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

The only cause that I can see to trigger big selloff yesterday and more selling over next few days is from bot machines when market breaking down from some support levels. Technical analysis wise, there should be more selloff to come during next week before we have Santa Claus rally.


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## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

james4beach said:


> There are generally no single clear causes of market movements, especially not day to day. The media says a bunch of garbage each time it happens, but you can pretty much ignore that.


Quoted for accuracy and emphasis.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

If the media can not find a news event that caused the movement of the market/price the media will say the movement was technical. Everything that exists has its own nature that it must act in accordance with. The market/price is not sub natural it has its own identity & nature that it must act in accordance with the market/price can not not act outside its nature. (The market/price is the market/price & can not be something differnt @ the same time & in the same respect. There is structure in everything that exists including the market/price just because we do not fully understand the structure of the market/price does not mean structure does not exist. Play in the part of the river that you know the best.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Well here is the reason for today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-29/u-s-index-futures-decline-before-housing-consumer-data.html

Of course there have been much worse news events that haven't caused any drop. Maybe it is just one of those days that the Fed is out of the market so the market can have some normal movement in it.

Actually reading the first paragraph is exactly how the markets traditionally acted in the past and would rally when the Fed did raise rates thinking the Fed had it under control. This would continue until higher rates would finally go to far and the market would fall into a bear market followed by the confirmation of a recession.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

There is no obvious news that investors are reacting too, so it appears to be anticipation of news that hasn't happened yet. 
My guess is it is the US jobs report due out Friday. The Jobs report is expected to be really really good. But late in a bull market, good economic news is perceived as bad for the market. Its bad because it suggests rising rates sooner rather than later, and a rise in rates, means a corresponding lower value of assets. So, the market is adjusting down, before the news is announced. 

Markets are forward looking. That's why the market is one of many leading economic indicators. 

My guess is that this is profit taking before the jobs numbers. After the jobs numbers it may be thought that gee, we over reacted, and we'll get a rally.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

lonewolf said:


> If the media can not find a news event that caused the movement of the market/price the media will say the movement was technical.


Usually they say that "profit taking" occured  

Remember when Canadian index was down and "analysts" said it's because of US bad data....but US markets were up same day


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