# A Real Debate



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

As you know we have QE 1,2,3 and probably so on along with ZIRP.

We have crazy debt but a never ending bond bull market so it seems since 1982.

The US dollar is king yet it is still a fiat currency based on confidence.

Plenty of wars and disruption to keep the US dollar as king

Lonewolf sees jaws of death and wave counts, astrology, shemitah cycle, Dow tranports hurting and so on.

The Fed along with other central banks have maintained the confidence along with the media until now through manipulation techniques. 

Greece is near the end and geopolitics are at a high.

Gold and silver are the go to but the US dollar is still the easy choice and the most liquid so we go there.

Looking back at history we comfortably say stay long stocks forget the noise. As long as the Fed has control this is true but if it loses control this entire dream will come to an end.

I think we need to be invested but watch what is going on like a hawk and prepare for what is coming next.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

lonewolf has two accounts now??


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Delete the lonewolf comments from my list if we don't understand them but the rest of the list is known facts. Except for the Dow transports we know they are down and going the wrong way at least for now.

My thinking is we get a few rate hikes starting in September unless things go south and then that gets put on the shelf. Otherwise we get the hikes the market corrects hard and we then get QE4 or whatever followed by the blow off top and then we get the big decline. I have heard the game over scene coming this September and have heard it will happen over the next couple of years and some say 2021 or 22. Bottom line is we will get some sort of reset but how to play it is the problem because holding cash could mean losing to an inflation event and holding stocks exposes you to a meltdown.

The other problem is geopolitics are really starting to become a big problem and we are heading for some sort of a climax there.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

dogcom said:


> My thinking is we get a few rate hikes starting in September


My thinking is that they will find a reason to delay just a bit longer. And again at Christmas, and likely out to 2017.
I also suspect Poloz can knock the BoC rate back by a few bps, maybe to 0.75%.

But I think an equity meltdown could easily occur anyway.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

A correction YES. Siting about 25% cash bring it on.

A melt down small %, will do the same thing. Buy, buy,buy.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Gardner you might be right in Canada but in the US the Fed will be doing it solely as a reputation thing instead of crying wolf all the time.

Oldroe if Greece goes down bonds go down and we get a derivative meltdown you may get more then you bargain for in a correction.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Some must check out charts by them selves pretty much rest the case for the bears.

June 26 safe haven preservation of capital website why I am ultra bearish over the long term by Rajveer Rawlin

Did not know how to post charts

liquidity: velocity of money so low, sky high prices, huge margin debt could be huge air pockets under the market, when everyone is on one side of the trade

The super shemitah Jubilee year in 2016 is what concerns me more then this years shemitah though I would not want to be long this market those charts say it all.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

There is always a manufactured crisis in Sept/oct, has been forever. Its probably on purpose.

All those problems who mention do exist but there is one over-riding fact, like the EU/Greece saga, the US Fed and other central banks will do WHATEVER it takes to keep the party rolling. They keep the stock market going up for the 1% and they keep housing inching up for the rest of the masses. Anything and everything will be sacrificed for this agenda. Period.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Greece is just old old news. Already priced in.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

tygrus said:


> , the US Fed and other central banks will do WHATEVER it takes to keep the party rolling. They keep the stock market going up for the 1% and they keep housing inching up for the rest of the masses. Anything and everything will be sacrificed for this agenda. Period.



Some market historians say in 1929 the fed crashed the market to punish the banks that broke away from the fed. The fed raised interest rates to crash the market.

Some say now the powers that be might crash the market before the election to change election results.

I do not think the fed will be able to control the boom bust cycles for ever, Its like putting a cork in your butt it just makes matters worse in the long run.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Oldroe you can't really price in Greece in a traditional way because of all the consequences that could possibly be tied to it.

Tygrus i believe you are the most correct and that we are in a manipulated market and traditional charts and analysis that lonewolf employs won't work as he might expect. On one side which is the most important is the bond and debt markets that central banks must control above all. Secondly they must control possible alternative currencies like gold and silver so they don't show how out of control things are or could be. Lastly they hold the stock market up to keep up confidence that something is right about what they are doing and keep confidence in the economy.

I should also add they keep the bought and paid for media reporting what they want them to and not to write stories that could undermine peoples confidence in the central bank or banks. So if their plan is to pull the plug in line with what lonewolf is thinking then he will be right. If they lose control and can't stop things then again lonewolf will be correct. However if they are still in control then the end game will be on their timeline and anything could be possible including a roaring stock market in the fall of this year.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Not everyone can be a winner in the market. If the powers that be make the market path for ever up with say 2% maximum corrections its going to be hard to take the money from the retailer investor by the likes of Goldman.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I think being summer is slower that they will put in a bigger correction bring sentiment down very low and then have a great deal of shorts that they can use as ammunition to restart the stock market. 

I think lonewolf that the Fed doesn't really care if some retail investors make some money at this point and is more concerned with keeping the entire system together. If derivatives collapse for example that would be far more destructive to Goldman and such then some retail investors making a few bucks. However if you are correct and they plan to bring the system down starting this fall then I am sure if they can snag some extra gains from retail investors then they will take all that they can. 

Just look how they game the gold and silver futures market and how they like to clobber the longs and the shorts as they manipulate their way through the market.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

The lesson is "If it's in the news It's already priced in".

Greece has been in the news for 4 years.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Nothing has been priced in by the market as you can see by looking at the bond market as evidence. Do you really think that Spain and Portugal bond yields would be as low as they are in a real market. Central banks through massive QE around the world are now the market and from this money is redeployed around the world.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

I believe all the press on Greece is a giant tard. 

The final story isn't wrote yet but it's not Greece.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Priced in my eye. In the last 5 years Greek bonds have gone from par to down 50% back to par now down 30% or more. In all that time any bond expert or investor who cared to look, could have told you that there was no chance that Greece would ever pay their debts, and the only way they could pay the interest was by borrowing it.

Reminds me of a story from The Predictors, true story of a group of mathematicians, physicists and computer experts who set out to beat the markets. They figured they would create a winning computer program in 2 or 3 months, clean up, then take their millions and go do the research they wanted to do.

2 years into their quest one of the leaders sat down with an economist who explained to him how markets work, the efficient market hypothesis, random walk theory, how everything is priced in etc.

After a few minutes he interrupted and said "I don't know what planet you're from, but you're not describing any market on the Planet Earth".


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> . In all that time any bond expert or investor who cared to look, could have told you that there was no chance that Greece would ever pay their debts, and the only way they could pay the interest was by borrowing it.
> 
> 
> ".


 LOL & across the pond from Greece the so called bond experts are calling government bonds safe. 

Who am I to think & judge if its good enough for the bond expert it is good enough for me.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

If you want a real laugh, every government is running the same Ponzi scheme as Greece. They all are in debt, none of them can pay back what they owe, none of them can even pay the interest. All must borrow more every year to keep afloat and all will sink when lenders decide they are a bad risk and refuse to lend more money.

It gets worse. All this debt is held by the world's central banks at par. If its value drops they are all bankrupt. And the debt is pledged and repledged for all kinds of loans, and levered up about 100:1. When the crash comes trillions of dollars and Euros can disappear overnight, *poof* it's gone and hello to the biggest depression the world has ever seen.

This is what they are trying to stave off with all their phenagelling. The "bailouts" to Greece, and Cyprus, gave the big banks time to sell off the bad debts and get their books in order. Now they don't care if Greece goes down the drain. That was inevitable from the first. The bailouts were just to buy time.

Wonder what country they will put through the wringer next?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

I would rather live in a country with high debt & high productivity, then a country with no debt & no productivity.

We are going into debt while we have made China more productive by setting up factories in China.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I would rather live in a country with no debt and high productivity. The trouble is, when any country does this, they soon become the richest country in the world their money gets so expensive no other country can afford to buy their products. So they have to devalue their currency and give stuff away, in order to avoid losing money.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

The government is in charge of as well as destroys the money world. The government is not efficient as the private sector which should create & be in charge of the money world. This is or best chance of creating the best form of money, no holds barred total free market let the best method win. The private sector might take over money anyhow i.e., Bite coin, Bite gold, gold money are some examples.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Getting back on track, Rusty you will most likely do better then most when playing the market because my understanding is you go to straight to the source regarding money on the table (price) by using moving averages. There are different methods people use based on price & I think using price increases the odds of making money more then any other. Let the market tell you.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Also rusty the manufacturing becomes outdated and change and inovation is needed to go forward to keep a country productive. This also takes education, reward and incentive so people have the freedom and the drive to bring forward new things to keep a mature economy from rolling over.

The US has had to rely on the Fed, media propaganda, deceit, CIA, spying(NSA) and the military to keep big banks, wall street and big corporations in power. Without these factors they would have to rely on the above and proper ways for a country and nation to prosper. Also they would have had to let go of debt and let the economy to heal on its own at least for a time like they did in the 30's. 

The scary thing however is if they lose control or about to lose control they run the risk of starting WW3.


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## tenoclock (Jan 23, 2015)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I would rather live in a country with no debt and high productivity. The trouble is, when any country does this, they soon become the richest country in the world their money gets so expensive no other country can afford to buy their products. So they have to devalue their currency and give stuff away, in order to avoid losing money.


I respectfully disagree with the part where a country needs to devalue the currency to stay competitive, innovation makes a country competitive. So while the currency may strengthen, the people can move to sectors of the economy where they have an absolute or competitive advantage. This already has happened in most developed countries with most people being employed in the service sector now rather than manufacturing.. The problem comes when innovation is inhibited by increasingly authoritative governments with more strict regulations and/or high taxation which does not promote entrepreneurship and innovation


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

dogcom said:


> Also rusty the manufacturing becomes outdated and change and inovation is needed to go forward to keep a country productive. This also takes education, reward and incentive so people have the freedom and the drive to bring forward new things to keep a mature economy from rolling over.
> 
> 
> 
> The scary thing however is if they lose control or about to lose control they run the risk of starting WW3.


 I remember reading a while back something like the top 10 or 7 of the top 10 (forget the exact number) job sectors that had most employees in the U.S paid minimum wage. Yet all these kids have gone to school to go deep in debt & not being productive in the process backed by a certain amount by taxes & end up getting a job as a bar tender, waitress, sales clerk etc. What about cutting the losses by getting rid of colleges & universities or rent them to the private sector & let the private sector train the kids so they are trained for the job needed to be done. Reduction in taxes, more efficient education helping to make the country more productive. The private sector would not train someone if there was no need.

Regarding WW3, I think emotions causes the event to happen. When people are depressed more likely to sell stock & or start a war. Chicken or the egg?


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

tenoclock said:


> I respectfully disagree with the part where a country needs to devalue the currency to stay competitive, innovation makes a country competitive. So while the currency may strengthen, the people can move to sectors of the economy where they have an absolute or competitive advantage. This already has happened in most developed countries with most people being employed in the service sector now rather than manufacturing.. The problem comes when innovation is inhibited by increasingly authoritative governments with more strict regulations and/or high taxation which does not promote entrepreneurship and innovation


I was thinking of situations like Germany in the seventies, Japan in the eighties, and Switzerland in 2013 where their currencies became so valuable, nobody could afford to buy their goods.

China may be heading the same way in a few years. Countries where people work hard, innovate, make lots of stuff, and sell it around the world somehow magically get tons of money, and their money becomes more valuable.


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## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

dogcom said:


> ............................
> *I think we need to be invested but watch what is going on like a hawk and prepare for what is coming next.*


There are tons of market moving events coming out regularly on monthly basis. So, I don't think watching market closely is an effective way to help out anyone with their investments because they can't make their decisions in a proper way due to unknown factors that they fear to get stuck with. Those that employ simple strategies such as selling in May and go away for the rest of summer are likely to generate much better returns if they invest in October and hold until May. For those that have been investing/trading for years like I do, you probably aware of that stock markets tend to be quite volatile during summer periods where the month of July is the most volatile one, which again it holds true so far this year. Otherwise, such volatile markets are always a great period of time for short-term traders like me making good profits in a short period of time

btw, forgive me that I didn't have time to reply to some messages in my inbox as I spend most of my time up north these days to enjoy my summer time. I hate those mosquitoes lol....


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

lonewolf said:


> Getting back on track, Rusty you will most likely do better then most when playing the market because my understanding is you go to straight to the source regarding money on the table (price) by using moving averages. There are different methods people use based on price & I think using price increases the odds of making money more then any other. Let the market tell you.


I'm pretty skeptical about anybody's predictions especially my own. Just today I came across this article in Forbes that says Twitter can predict the Dow 2 -6 days in the future with 87.5% accuracy. 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/heatherstruck/2010/10/18/can-twitter-predict-the-stock-market/

Since the average hedge fund manager or economist has trouble beating 50% (random chance) this is impressive.

Lately I have been doing low risk calendar spreads in popular stocks and ETFs with encouraging results.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Etfstrader your right there are market moving events coming out all the time or known otherwise as noise. These events don't concern me except to look them over. The market events I am talking about is a loss of control by the powers that be and that can be seen in the bond markets. If for example the Greece problem were to blow up and other markets like Spain and Portugal starting seeing their yields starting to spike that would be a cause to monitor the EU reaction. If that then turned into bank failures then we could be seeing the start to real problems and a move to cash or greater cash position may be a thought. 

Or another example is if the Fed started raises rates which would spike the US deficit I wonder where the money would come from to buy that up. If the Fed continued to raise the rates as they seemed to be threatening to do then they would be signalling that they want prices to come down and stocks would crash. Or an inverted yield curve would be a disaster if it were to appear. There are a ton of derivative bets coming from ZIRP and QE and all this stuff that could unwind from problems in the bond markets. Of course things are much more complex but there are things to watch for that could signal an end to the bubbles that have been created. 

Another simple one to note is a parabolic spike in anything will end very badly as we all know and it is an easy one to see and stand away from. Silver spike to $50 in 2011 was probably the simplest one of all to see and to boot they raised margin requirements for a very simple signal the end was very near. There are some easy things to see that are more then noise that you can look at.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

dogcom said:


> .
> 
> Another simple one to note is a parabolic spike in anything will end very badly as we all know and it is an easy one to see and stand away from. Silver spike to $50 in 2011 was probably the simplest one of all to see and to boot they raised margin requirements for a very simple signal the end was very near. There are some easy things to see that are more then noise that you can look at.


 Got to love price, corrections get smaller & smaller people have been programed to buy when market corrects everyone on one side of the trade such as diagonal triangle or parabolic. A small amount of money without of the money puts can make a fortune. Years back I remember Bill Mariniam (sp?) ask Mogley who was head of the foundation of cycles @ one time if they also found the seasonal cycle the most power full cycle & his answer was yes.

(hint) From 09 low market forming rising diagonal triangle (corrections smaller & smaller). Sept & Oct time to play out of money puts based on cycles. There have been a lot of crashes that have crashed into the date of 55 hrs before the first new moon after Yum Kippur. I forget the guys name who did the study of the exact day of the low of best day to buy based on seasonal based on DJI I think if memory correct since inception. I ran the numbers by hand using the lunar/solar calendar & guess what buying based on closes & or opens which ever was closest to 55 hrs before the new moon after Yum Kippur gave a higher percentage increase for both the DJI & TSX, I went back tested into the 1920s for the DJI forget how far I back tested for TSX. I would have dig through my files to get exact percentage amount it was something like 1 to 3% higher using moon. ran all kinds of data for moon/solar for when best time to sell could not find any thing that beat just using the sun.

The 7 year cycle has sun/moon bottoming the weekend after 9/11 this year next year playing 55 hr yum kippur moon/solar cycle for crash low.


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