# US Democrats going Hard Left



## robfordlives (Sep 18, 2014)

Mainly because of Ocasio-Cortez's popularity the Dems are going hard left with talk of 70% tax rates and the New Green Deal. I have zero doubt the Dems will recapture the presidency in 2020.

Should we as investors not be concerned that all of the positive economic changes made under Trump (corp tax reform, less burdensome regulations and more accomodative Fed speak) will be reversed by the Dems?? This would mean an immediate 20% cut to S&P earnings and no doubt a 20 - 40% drop in equities after factoring P/E multiple to those lower earnings

https://www.theatlantic.com/science...een-new-deal-winning-climate-strategy/576514/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/4/18168431/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-70-percent


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I am not worried about such a shift. What the US needs is the return to rationality by supporting their existing social programs. Maybe shifting funding from military spending to progressive social programs. Neither party seems to care about the deficit!


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I'd like to see the democrats put forward a credible candidate...so far it doesn't look promising. 

I doubt the USA will ever shift as far left as Canada and anticipate whoever wins the next presidential election will maintain the status quo. Rich lobbyists will continue to own that country.


----------



## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

As an investor, I'm not worried. A few random thoughts.

1. S&P 500 did better under Obama than it has done so far under Trump. Look it up. Trade wars are a drag on the stock market.

2. Democrats need to recapture the WH *and* the Senate in order to pass drastic tax changes. The Senate will be hard to flip. GOP has a structural geographical advantage in the Senate.

3. Howard Shultz (Starbucks billionaire) is gearing for a run as an independent. He may split the vote and allow Trump to squeak in, despite his low approval numbers.

4. AOC is popular but she is not the entire party. Dems owe their House majority to the newly elected reps who flipped the red seats. There are several dozens of them. They will act as a moderating force. If they don't, their seats will flip back to red.

5. In general, don't mix your politics and your investments. It's a bad combo. Many folks on the right sat out the entire bull market because they thought that "commie muslim" was about to destroy capitalism. Ditto folks on the left who went to cash in Nov 2016.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

robfordlives said:


> Mainly because of Ocasio-Cortez's popularity the Dems are going hard left with talk of 70% tax rates and the New Green Deal. I have zero doubt the Dems will recapture the presidency in 2020.
> 
> Should we as investors not be concerned that all of the positive economic changes made under Trump (corp tax reform, less burdensome regulations and more accomodative Fed speak) will be reversed by the Dems?? This would mean an immediate 20% cut to S&P earnings and no doubt a 20 - 40% drop in equities after factoring P/E multiple to those lower earnings
> 
> ...


i question your assumptions, first, the likelihood of ocasio-cortez's wet dream coming true is very low for at least a decade

second, i am not certain that the changes you cite are necessarily going to benefit the american economy in the long run, in the short run, yes, but already the effects of the tax cuts are beginning to lose their juice 

and finally your zero doubt that the dems will capture the presidency is roughly equivalent to my pronouncement that donald trump wouldn't survive the primaries, he is about 50-50 to prevail, it's hard to unseat sitting presidents

the lightning rod of elizabeth warren and her hotness ocasio-cortez is going to arouse the republican party to a frenzy in 2020

even if the dems do win in 2020 and hold the house which isn't assured, they will not have the 70 votes they need in the senate to pass meaningful tax reform 

the dems are fractured between centre left and hard left and that will exert inertia on their efforts while the gop will be largely united behind spanky

this may change if we see a fast coming recession


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Democrats have, historically, been tremendously pro-corporate and pro-war. I don't think there's much danger of anything approaching the "left". Both parties are conservative by global standards.

The economy and stock market did tremendously well under Obama.

I think the bigger concern as an investor is the escalating dysfunction in American society & politics. This is rooted in major societal problems (huge numbers of poor and unemployed, underreported). Crisis levels of opioid addiction and incarceration are all part of that too. In my opinion, America is not a healthy country. As the country becomes more unstable, I expect more consequences that are negative for investors, such as changes to laws, growing anti-foreigner policies, and civil unrest. The politics we watch reflect all of this. There's a reason American politics looks like a sh** show... the politicians such as Trump are not the cause, they are the effect.

I don't think it's wise to have large investment exposure to the US. I have deliberately underweighted it (vs couch potato models) for some time now, and am continuing to do so.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Democrats have, historically, been tremendously pro-corporate and pro-war. I don't think there's much danger of anything approaching the "left". Both parties are conservative by global standards.
> 
> The economy and stock market did tremendously well under Obama.
> 
> ...


well said ... the usa is running on tax cuts and unbridled laissez faire capitalism and what in some cases is nothing other than preying on the middle and lower middle class (see for-profit colleges as one scandalous example not to mention private prisons) it is the worst managed major economy in the world, if there isnt some kind of cease fire in congress and a decent leader, the usa is in trouble


----------



## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

Never underestimate the Democrats ability to blow it and squander the goodwill they gained in the fall of 2018 . Their obsession with far left candidates (Sanders ) who are ultimately labelled as commies and socialists (toxic labels in the US) will be their undoing if they choose to go this route . The US as a whole is pretty much center if not Right center so moderate Left is where they should be in terms of policy and candidates . Though I don't expect them to learn and they'll probably pick some extreme wacko who will lose when he /she is compared to Trudeau and his Venezuelefication of Canada !


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Rumor has it the hag-corpse Hillary will throw her shrunken head in the ring again...its like our NDP...slow motion suicide


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

diharv said:


> Never underestimate the Democrats ability to blow it and squander the goodwill they gained in the fall of 2018 . Their obsession with far left candidates (Sanders ) who are ultimately labelled as commies and socialists (toxic labels in the US) will be their undoing if they choose to go this route . The US as a whole is pretty much center if not Right center so moderate Left is where they should be in terms of policy and candidates . Though I don't expect them to learn and they'll probably pick some extreme wacko who will lose when he /she is compared to Trudeau and his Venezuelefication of Canada !


It's funny how many instant-experts there are on Venezuela in recent days, especially when compared to Canada.


----------



## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

BoringInvestor said:


> It's funny how many instant-experts there are on Venezuela in recent days, especially when compared to Canada.


I've been there eight times and my wife and her family (five of her siblings have already fled the country) are from Venezuela . She has one brother left there plus mother and aunts and uncles and cousins . So yes , I do know more than you and the average Canadian about what is actually going going on there . The suffering is real , Maduro is incompetent and corrupt and yes , a coup or whatever it is called to get the fool and his cronies out is in the best interests of the country .


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

diharv said:


> I've been there eight times and my wife and her family (five of her siblings have already fled the country) are from Venezuela . She has one brother left there plus mother and aunts and uncles and cousins . So yes , I do know more than you and the average Canadian about what is actually going going on there . The suffering is real , Maduro is incompetent and corrupt and yes , a coup or whatever it is called to get the fool and his cronies out is in the best interests of the country .


Now let's put that to the test, how do you back up this statement - "Trudeau and his Venezuelefication of Canada".


----------



## hfp75 (Mar 15, 2018)

GoldStone said:


> 1. S&P 500 did better under Obama than it has done so far under Trump. Look it up. Trade wars are a drag on the stock market.


Thats not a matter of who the President is/was, Obama happened to be President while the US Fed was running multiple massive stimulus programs..... Even if Justin was President the economy would have done well....


----------



## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

BoringInvestor said:


> Now let's put that to the test, how do you back up this statement - "Trudeau and his Venezuelefication of Canada".


Venezuelefication is probably too extreme to describe the Trudeau Liberals actions . Probably more befitting Jagmeet Singh and his party . Though Trudeau's wealth redistribution by taxing the wealthy (justifiable ) and the corporate tax reformations (not) as well as the slow bleeding of the energy industry (deliberate of incompetence?) I guess we will see if the " nationalizing" of the Transmountain pipeline results in anything or is is an attempt to kill it once and for all. Hell , I don't know but I do feel that the Venezuelan situation is due to epic failure of socialist policies . Nationalizing energy and agricultural industries , price controls that make it impossible to produce something and make a living . The country eventually produces nothing , imports everything and then the oil money dries up because in addition to the lower price , the good minds have left and it is a shadow of its former self , producing a fraction of what it did. I guess that is why when extreme Left talk comes up , Venezuela comes up !


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

diharv said:


> Venezuelefication is probably too extreme to describe the Trudeau Liberals actions . Probably more befitting Jagmeet Singh and his party . Though Trudeau's wealth redistribution by taxing the wealthy (justifiable ) and the corporate tax reformations (not) as well as the slow bleeding of the energy industry (deliberate of incompetence?) I guess we will see if the " nationalizing" of the Transmountain pipeline results in anything or is is an attempt to kill it once and for all. Hell , I don't know but I do feel that the Venezuelan situation is due to epic failure of socialist policies . Nationalizing energy and agricultural industries , price controls that make it impossible to produce something and make a living . The country eventually produces nothing , imports everything and then the oil money dries up because in addition to the lower price , the good minds have left and it is a shadow of its former self , producing a fraction of what it did. I guess that is why when extreme Left talk comes up , Venezuela comes up !


Thanks for explaining, but I agree with your larger point - it's too extreme to describe Trudeau's actions.

I don't see any justification to say Canada is going the way of Venezuela other than as hyperbole, which in this case I don't see how it helpfully adds to a conversation.

I also don't see how implemented NDP policies could be described as leading Canada to Venezuela.


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

It seems with Venezuela's inability to supply heavy oil to US refineries the US will look to Mexico and Saudi Arabia for additional sources. Seems Canada is unable to supply more thanks to the Venezuelefication of Canada. What a national embarrassment.


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

Eder said:


> ...thanks to the Venezuelefication of Canada


Meaning what exactly?


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

BoringInvestor said:


> Meaning what exactly?


Hyperbolic nonsense, that is what.


----------



## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

Not really. Liberals have been limiting our oil supply exports too by completely failing to get any pipelines built by private companies and have along w the NDP scared most private investment $ away. The situation is so desperate they had to nationalise a $5B pipeline w taxpayers $. 

And due to their dithering, ineptness and bumbling it still isn't getting built.


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

Jimmy said:


> Not really. Liberals have been limiting our oil supply exports too by completely failing to get any pipelines built by private companies and have along w the NDP scared most private investment $ away. The situation is so desperate they had to nationalise a $5B pipeline w taxpayers $.
> 
> And due to their dithering, ineptness and bumbling it still isn't getting built.


Interesting.
What about the price of oil and its impact on these matters?


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Jimmy said:


> Not really. Liberals have been limiting our oil supply exports too by completely failing to get any pipelines built by private companies and have along w the NDP scared most private investment $ away. The situation is so desperate they had to nationalise a $5B pipeline w taxpayers $.
> 
> And due to their dithering, ineptness and bumbling it still isn't getting built.


Same ineptness that lead Harper for fail at same for 10 years? And what does that have to do with Venezuela?


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

andrewf said:


> Hyperbolic nonsense, that is what.


not by much ... an actual implementation of the leap manifesto combined with the far left ideology of the NDP would absolutely start us down the road to the venezuelafication of canada


----------



## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

andrewf said:


> Same ineptness that lead Harper for fail at same for 10 years? And what does that have to do with Venezuela?


 Harper expanded 4 pipelines in reality. And again, like Venezuela , Liberals are stifling our oil industry.


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Today Trans Canada is trying to sell its approved gas pipeline they still cant build...they are sick of the anti business BS prevalent with our government. Even changing their name to remove the word "Canada" from it. Soon we'll be left with the zombies like Bombardier and our real estate flipping to fund this country. 

Like Venezuela we are working hard to reduce production and screw export efficiencies...it should be a national embarrassment yet it seems many keep their head in the sand.


----------



## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

BoringInvestor said:


> Interesting.
> What about the price of oil and its impact on these matters?


Nothing to do w it. Energy East cancelled due to too much approval regulation made it unviable. Was to replace oil from Algeria. KM blamed uncertainty due to the Liberal govt. Would have allowed oil to be sold to China at higher prices not that it matters. Trudeau killed Northern Gateway unilaterally to appease the green BC vote and other special interest groups. No economic analysis whatsoever.


----------



## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

fatcat said:


> not by much ... an actual implementation of the leap manifesto combined with the far left ideology of the NDP would absolutely start us down the road to the venezuelafication of canada


Geez I invented a word ! Hyperbolic definition should read "Closed for business, investors go away ."


----------



## OhGreatGuru (May 24, 2009)

If US Democrats were indeed going "Hard Left", they would have elected Bernie Sanders. The Democratic Party as a whole is still pretty far to the right of our Conservative party on many key issues.


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

Based on the responses of this thread, either it's too late for Canada to avoid Venezuelization, or it may start.

Really it's just a pointless buzzword that serves as a rallying cry.

Let's do political discussion better, ya?


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

The Alberta Party is calling for an East Coast tanker ban as our fragile coast is too pristine to put at risk. I like this idea...might let the center of the universe to share some of our pain, at the same time making them burn ethical oil.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

BoringInvestor said:


> Based on the responses of this thread, either it's too late for Canada to avoid Venezuelization, or it may start.
> 
> Really it's just a pointless buzzword that serves as a rallying cry.
> 
> Let's do political discussion better, ya?


that canada is growing increasingly hostile to business seems plain enough to me, resource extraction and energy development (or more properly non-development) are two examples of sacrifices in the name of equal outcomes for all


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

You guys have convinced me. Canada is about to become Venezuela! We're terribly hostile to business (with some of the lowest tax rates in the world) and most stable society & political environment in the world.

Sounds horrible for business! Maybe you should move to a more "business-friendly" country like the USA! Try it out, you'll love it.

Back to reality though. When I resume running my own business, Canada is a no-brainer choice vs the US. Now that I've seen the nitty gritty details of the US business environment (working at a small co, and friends with the owner) I think someone would be nuts to choose the US vs Canada.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

james4beach said:


> You guys have convinced me. Canada is about to become Venezuela! We're terribly hostile to business (with some of the lowest tax rates in the world) and most stable society & political environment in the world.
> 
> Sounds horrible for business! Maybe you should move to a more "business-friendly" country like the USA! Try it out, you'll love it.
> 
> Back to reality though. When I resume running my own business, Canada is a no-brainer choice vs the US. Now that I've seen the nitty gritty details of the US business environment (working at a small co, and friends with the owner) I think someone would be nuts to choose the US vs Canada.


tell that to the people of alberta ...


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

fatcat said:


> that canada is growing increasingly hostile to business seems plain enough to me, resource extraction and energy development (or more properly non-development) are two examples of sacrifices in the name of equal outcomes for all


Well here in Ontario we've recently installed a few 'Open for Business' signs at the border, so maybe Alberta should try that too.

To be serious again for a moment - Alberta's economy continues to be boom/bust that unsurprisingly closely mirrors the cost of oil/gas.
Regardless who wins the next election, if Alberta's economy continues to remain as is, they'll once again have a great boom before another inevitable bust.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Albertans became fabulously wealthy during the boom years for oil. Just look through the money diaries on this site, it seems the wealthiest contributors here made their fortunes in oil & gas. Pulling in salaries well over 150K, engineers, management, oil services, lawyers all benefitting tremendously from huge resource extraction. Building net worths well north of 1M. There are even young men who show money diaries well over a million before they even hit age 50, tremendous rate of wealth accumulation.

These people don't strike me as impoverished, or suffering due to the Canadian business environment. Energy has entered a bear market and that's the boom & bust nature.

There is nothing in Canada that holds back major wealth creation. If there was, we wouldn't see so many fabulously wealthy people in the money diaries on this tiny web forum of ours. Now if they were unprepared for the "bust" of the boom/bust, that's another matter.


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

One friend in the oil service industry here says he's trying to stay above water while the Liberals are tying concrete blocks to his feet. Last year April he had over 2000 employees today he has 400. He mentioned it's getting hard to give a F--k anymore.

Another friend from Grand Prairie has about 50 million in service equipment...all that equipment and any employee who was willing to go is now working in the States...what a joke. 

But I'll give the comments here a break...how could you know whats going on in Alberta?


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

It's a bear market in energy. What do I know? I know it's a bear market in energy and I know people like to direct blame at someone.


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Isn't it strange the only bear market in energy is in Western Canada? Why is that? The USA is booming.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Eder said:


> Isn't it strange the only bear market in energy is in Western Canada? Why is that? The USA is booming.


The US energy industry is not booming at all, they're both suffering.

Here are the charts of Cdn energy sector (green) and American XLE (black)
http://schrts.co/cSPMVMyk

You can clearly see here that the sectors of the two countries are moving in lock step. Canada has diverged and gone slightly lower over the last 1 year but the theme is *identical* for the two countries.

That proves it is not a Canadian-specific weakness, right? American oil & gas is suffering, Canadian oil & gas is suffering. The stock charts are nearly identical.


----------



## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

james4beach said:


> The US energy industry is not booming at all, they're both suffering.
> 
> Here are the charts of Cdn energy sector (green) and American XLE (black)
> http://schrts.co/cSPMVMyk
> ...


The share prices of US and CAD may be moving in lock step, but the industries certainly are not. Share prices in the industry are driven strongly by oil prices and sentiment. Sometimes not necessarily by profitability.
The view in terms of hirings, layoffs, activity levels, drilling rigs, etc etc is vastly different. Drilling counts north of the border is heavily dependent on seasons (spring breakup nothing happens) and the local price of oil. We'd be around 120 rigs going right now last year, it's about 20-40 rigs now. South of the border they've been doing 1000 rigs drilling wells, gently increasing over the past few years.


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

Eder said:


> One friend in the oil service industry here says he's trying to stay above water while the Liberals are tying concrete blocks to his feet. Last year April he had over 2000 employees today he has 400. He mentioned it's getting hard to give a F--k anymore.
> 
> Another friend from Grand Prairie has about 50 million in service equipment...all that equipment and any employee who was willing to go is now working in the States...what a joke.
> 
> But I'll give the comments here a break...how could you know whats going on in Alberta?


I don't doubt Alberta is going through harder times than a few years ago, but this is a pattern that will continuously repeat as long as the fortunes of the province are heavily tied to volatile energy prices.

Going gung-ho on more energy production now, without an even harder push into diversifying into other areas of the province (or stashing away cash in good years), will just make the next inevitable downtown that much harder.

We all know this is the cycle. We all know energy prices will boom and bust regardless of which party is in power provincially or federally, so let's stop playing politics and let's actually build a more sustainable Alberta or better prepare for the next time this cycle happens.


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

Following up on this, the Supreme Court just ruled that energy companies can't abandon oil wells when they declare bankruptcy if they have remaining assets that can be used to cleanup the site.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/supreme-court-redwater-decision-orphan-wells-1.4998995

Might this ruling hurt energy investment in Alberta? Probably - it's now a little riskier as you can't as easily get rid of an abandon well.
Fault of the Federal Liberals or Provincial NDP? Nope.


----------



## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

BoringInvestor said:


> Following up on this, the Supreme Court just ruled that energy companies can't abandon oil wells when they declare bankruptcy if they have remaining assets that can be used to cleanup the site.
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/supreme-court-redwater-decision-orphan-wells-1.4998995
> 
> Might this ruling hurt energy investment in Alberta? Probably - it's now a little riskier as you can't as easily get rid of an abandon well.
> Fault of the Federal Liberals or Provincial NDP? Nope.


I don't know. All the orphan wells are from microcap or private startups that didn't work out. The big boys, who control probably 95%+ of the wells, do it properly. And spend the vast majority of the capital.
I wonder where 'well decommissioning' fits in the hierarchy or bankruptcy proceedings. Above bond/debt holders? Above taxes in arrears?


----------



## lonewolf :) (Sep 13, 2016)

robfordlives said:


> Mainly because of Ocasio-Cortez's popularity the Dems are going hard left with talk of 70% tax rates and the New Green Deal. I have zero doubt the Dems will recapture the presidency in 2020.
> 
> 
> [/url]


 This will be a tax grab against the middle class the big boys make campaign contributions & lobby for programs that produce tax loop holes then get tax breaks so they do not pay. Only under a flat tax rate system can the economy boom. The government never looks @ themselves as the problem only @ raising taxes. Socialist programs kill incentive to produce taxing the productive just makes matters worse.


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

BoringInvestor said:


> I don't doubt Alberta is going through harder times than a few years ago, but this is a pattern that will continuously repeat as long as the fortunes of the province are heavily tied to volatile energy prices.
> 
> /QUOTE]
> 
> ...


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

BoringInvestor said:


> Following up on this, the Supreme Court just ruled that energy companies can't abandon oil wells when they declare bankruptcy if they have remaining assets that can be used to cleanup the site.
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/supreme-court-redwater-decision-orphan-wells-1.4998995
> 
> Might this ruling hurt energy investment in Alberta? Probably - it's now a little riskier as you can't as easily get rid of an abandon well.
> Fault of the Federal Liberals or Provincial NDP? Nope.


this has to put a drag on investment and exploration, one more nail in the coffin of the industry which, between the Liberals and the greens is absolutely a dead man walking and to think otherwise is to dream

if big-hair gets through this election, it’s over, he will let energy and resources wither and die 

aided and abetted by the supreme court of course, a completely unelected legislative body


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Seems to me that business people and resources extractors in Alberta have done great for themselves. Again, just look at this forum -- it's full of people who've become rich off oil & gas & services. Pull up a money diaries page on someone who showed rapid wealth accumulation, and they are nearly always an oil & gas person.

You want me to believe that these people are disadvantaged, and the country is dragging down the industry? Ridiculous.


----------



## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Seems to me that business people and resources extractors in Alberta have done great for themselves. Again, just look at this forum -- it's full of people who've become rich off oil & gas & services. Pull up a money diaries page on someone who showed rapid wealth accumulation, and they are nearly always an oil & gas person.
> 
> You want me to believe that these people are disadvantaged, and the country is dragging down the industry? Ridiculous.


You are welcome to check out the APEGA salary survey. It's done every year and gives the average/median/decile salaries by industry and experience level. 
https://www.apega.ca/assets/PDFs/salary-survey-highlights.pdf
These 'young' people you're complaining about would be in the A, B, C experience categories, maybe D.
Page 8 shows the salary by level and industry.
One can see that O&G (at the bottom of the chart) is not the top dog in those categories.
Now you might say that, well any engineering in AB is fueled by the O&G industry. Not entirely true.


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

fatcat said:


> if big-hair gets through this election, it’s over, he will let energy and resources wither and die
> 
> aided and abetted by the supreme court of course, a completely unelected legislative body


What's even the point of having a discussion if your premise is Trudeau aims to, and will successfully kill off the energy and resource sectors in the Liberals win.
Have you stretched hyperbole to its breaking point?


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

BoringInvestor said:


> What's even the point of having a discussion if your premise is Trudeau aims to, and will successfully kill off the energy and resource sectors in the Liberals win.
> Have you stretched hyperbole to its breaking point?


 trudeau either deliberately, or as a result of his incompetence (he has been prime minister for almost 4 years and accomplished absolutely nothing on the energy file, he talks and talks and gets nothing done) will basically allow resource extraction and energy development to die on his watch

he is more interested in being the feminist poster boy, (and in the this country feminism and environmentalism are one and the same) and he disparages energy and construction workers https://nationalpost.com/news/canad...about-gender-impacts-and-construction-workers

he has proven to be completely inept on anything related to resources or energy because he panders to the environmental left

so yeah, if he gets elected, i think energy and resource extraction is doomed in canada, it can’t survive 4 more years of Liberal ineptness

ps. most discussions on cmf quickly lose the point


----------



## BoringInvestor (Sep 12, 2013)

fatcat said:


> trudeau either deliberately, or as a result of his incompetence (he has been prime minister for almost 4 years and accomplished absolutely nothing on the energy file, he talks and talks and gets nothing done) will basically allow resource extraction and energy development to die on his watch
> 
> he is more interested in being the feminist poster boy, (and in the this country feminism and environmentalism are one and the same) and he disparages energy and construction workers https://nationalpost.com/news/canad...about-gender-impacts-and-construction-workers
> 
> ...


More hyperbole, clearly not much to gain by discussing further.
Cheers.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

BoringInvestor said:


> More hyperbole, clearly not much to gain by discussing further.
> Cheers.


excellent ... you give me the last word then, thanks

this is an example of trudeau reaching for a level of stupid that can’t be matched by mortal men

bill c-69 contains a provision that requires that environmental assessments include taking into account * “the intersection of sex and gender with other identity factors.”
*
this is not a CBC comedy skit, in order to build a pipeline you are going to have to consider the intersection of sex and gender

apart from the fact that no one understands what this even means, and i mean no one, not even the greenies



> *“If you’re asking, ‘What does that mean?’ I’m going to have to say I don’t really know,”* said Richard Lindgren, a staff lawyer at the Canadian Environmental Law Association. “I’ll wait for the guidance and direction from the government on this one.”


https://nationalpost.com/news/polit...ovisions-for-environmental-impact-assessments

this is the kind of bureaucratic bullshite that big-hair is implementing and if you don’t think this is going to have an impact on energy and resource extraction then you have been huffing a little too much of the prime ministers hair spray


----------



## robfordlives (Sep 18, 2014)

OhGreatGuru said:


> If US Democrats were indeed going "Hard Left", they would have elected Bernie Sanders. The Democratic Party as a whole is still pretty far to the right of our Conservative party on many key issues.


Get with the times, it's 2019 I'm not talking about 2016. AOC is on the extremely influential economic advisory board. She is actively calling for 70% marginal tax rate, Green New Deal which says to eliminate all fossil fuel extraction IMMEDIATELY and a wealth tax on assets that have already been taxed as income. This type of nonsense appeals to the majority of US citizens who feel they are somehow oppressed by the oppressors.


----------



## robfordlives (Sep 18, 2014)

Eder said:


> Isn't it strange the only bear market in energy is in Western Canada? Why is that? The USA is booming.



Yup, can confirm. Work for an Alberta based equipment rental company that certainly caters to the O&G market (although we have clients across all industries). We have moved 150 pieces of equipment out of the 650 we have to the US. They can't get enough construction equipment down there. In Canada we and our competitors have had to drop our rates 40-50% just to get work and are operating on sub 10% margins (used to be a 25% margin business). Our corp tax paid last year was $20Million and a normal year for us was in the $40Million+ range in Fed taxes payable. Oh well at least our carbon emissions are lower in Canada!!


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

There are some fine left of center Democratic candidates although most have not officially declared yet.

Trump may face a challenger or two himself. Lately he is getting worse mentally and people around him are convinced he has severe dementia.

A Times magazine story just out.....intelligence officials have to use "visual aids" to teach Trump, which is like....cartoons, and that is the least scary part of the story.

They are giving him a shortened version of a briefing and he is asking questions with no relevance to the discussion. They talk about a problem in a country and he asks how the beaches are there.

Defeated in his own primary, defeated by the Democrats, or taken to the loony bin strapped to a stretcher,..........Trump has got to go.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

I had some family and friends with dementia, and it is very scary to think of a President of the US with late stages of the disease.

The lady across the parking lot became a friend after her husband passed away. She used to walk across the parking lot and we would chat on the deck. She repeated the same stories....over and over.

When it was time to go, she stood up and had no clue which way to go, even though she was looking straight at her townhouse only feet away across the parking lot. She was only 65.

My grandfather had problems with short term memory. He could remember 50 years ago but not that he just ate lunch 10 minutes ago. 

One time my dad bought a bushel of apples and put them in the basement cool storage. Grandpa found them and ate every apple, cores and all....... and without his false teeth.

Yup........Trump has some mental problems that are getting worse. Maybe the White House doctor will tell the truth to Pelosi, McConnell and Pence and arrange a friendly coup.


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I agree that it time to dump the Trump but claiming he has dementia is lol.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

here's an interesting photo from the front page of the NY Times today. It shows donald trump addressing US forces at al-asad AFB in iraq in december 2018. He's telling em how he's bringing home all US soldiers from the middle east (very soon, though, trump would change his tune) (even today, nobody knows exactly what trump's plans for the MENA might be) (it appears that trump actually has no plans, only impulses)

but why is the president behind such heavy military barriers in this picture? those are elite US forces, is white house security fearing they could suddenly rush to overwhelm the POTUS?


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Those concrete curbs are everywhere inside & out in all conflict zones. Allegedly a defense against suicide bombers.


----------



## robfordlives (Sep 18, 2014)

Schumer/Sanders to introduce bill to eliminate buybacks. If passed I would estimate 10% drop in equity markets overnight but yea nothing to see here right.........


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

nobleea said:


> I don't know. All the orphan wells are from microcap or private startups that didn't work out. The big boys, who control probably 95%+ of the wells, do it properly. And spend the vast majority of the capital.
> I wonder where 'well decommissioning' fits in the hierarchy or bankruptcy proceedings. Above bond/debt holders? Above taxes in arrears?


Yes, this ruling will just put more barriers in the way of the small guys, and push those who are marginal into bankruptcy sooner. 
It won't clean up the orphaned wells, but it will drive up the cost of business. 

Philosophically and ethically it is a good ruling, you are responsible for your debts, even environmental debts.
Practically a bankrupt entity is still bankrupt, if the money isn't there, this ruling won't make more money magically show up.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Considering the political realities of the 2018 Congressional election results and Democrat nominees for President thus far., the US is moving sharply left towards a broader acceptance of socialism. Republicans are asking themselves if Trump can win another election, given that if anything he has shrunk the Republican base to a small group of core supporters of 30% or less of the country. It is worth noting that even Trump isn't as conservative as many others in the Republican party.

A recent poll showed more than 30% of Americans and more than 50% of young adults viewed socialist policies favorably.

The rising popularity of political stars among the new class in Congress are pushing the agenda.

This video of new political superstar Alexandria Ocasio -Cortez quickly went viral. She already has 5.9 million subscribers to her Youtube channel.

The Corruption Game

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJlpS4vhKP0


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

alexandria cortez is the flavour of the moment (i think she might be doing it based on those beautiful red lips alone, but that is only my guess) to be sure but i doubt that socialism will be galloping to the forefront anytime soon

americans are still well and truly scared of the word, the concept and the economic fantasy ... it needs to be sold

lizzie warren is weird and an awful candidate ... she is reminiscent of howard dean, odd and out of touch with voters, nobody except feminists and socialists will want to have a beer with lizzie so she will not be selling it anytime soon

there will be support for expanded access to health coverage and somewhat more progressives income taxes but even if spanky doesn’t get re-elected, a far from sure thing, the republicans will still hold the senate and may even get the house again

socialists ideas will start to enter the marketplace for sure depending on the candidate but the usa is a long way from norway or canada


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

fatcat said:


> alexandria cortez is the flavour of the moment (i think she might be doing it based on those beautiful red lips alone, but that is only my guess) to be sure but i doubt that socialism will be galloping to the forefront anytime soon
> 
> americans are still well and truly scared of the word, the concept and the economic fantasy ... it needs to be sold
> 
> ...


Just let her keep talking, putting out stuff like the Green New Deal is pure gold for Trump supporters. 
When she says she wants to rebuild/retrofit the entire country, build a new high speed rail network, provide free health care and a guaranteed minimum income, all in the next 10 years, it's shocking.

Even among her likely supporters who like those ideas, there is hesitation and concern that she hasn't thought this through.


----------



## lonewolf :) (Sep 13, 2016)

MrMatt said:


> Just let her keep talking, putting out stuff like the Green New Deal is pure gold for Trump supporters.
> When she says she wants to rebuild/retrofit the entire country, build a new high speed rail network, provide free health care and a guaranteed minimum income, all in the next 10 years, it's shocking.
> 
> Even among her likely supporters who like those ideas, there is hesitation and concern that she hasn't thought this through.


 There was one politician I forget the name that had a major brain wave said not verbatim "if you tax the rich they will just leave"


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

fatcat said:


> alexandria cortez is the flavour of the moment (i think she might be doing it based on those beautiful red lips alone, but that is only my guess)



oh oh this is rampant sexism dating from the 1970s. Half a century ago. Alas remnants survive in the white house today & in some crabby old internet forums ... each: 

on the bright side of things, ocasio-cortez has picked up american youth that voted for early barack obama in 07-08. Same youth that first elected JFK. It's their energy that will birth the new america, not decaying rococo ruins like donald trump

it's true that bernie sanders will never get the message, but a wired new broom like ocasio-cortez will be the first to reach an understanding that american banks - read american capitalism - can't be demolished with a wave of the electorate hand. What she'll do with her energy is learn how to reform the most egregious aspects.

more alexandria ocasio-cortez. She's irresistible.

https://youtu.be/wL5ucB3AbUs






> lizzie warren is weird and an awful candidate ... she is reminiscent of howard dean, odd and out of touch with voters, nobody except feminists and socialists will want to have a beer with lizzie


there you go, add in persons of colour & support for democrats is more than half of american voters


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

lonewolf :) said:


> There was one politician I forget the name that had a major brain wave said not verbatim "if you tax the rich they will just leave"


Andrew Cuomo.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cu...for-2-3-billion-new-york-state-budget-deficit


The SALT changes are interesting.
My understanding is that in the US it use to be legal to deduct your State taxes from your Federal Income tax.
This basically means residents of high tax states pay less federal tax than those in low tax states, because they write off their taxes.

The changes lowered the amount you can deduct, I believe the goal is to eventually have everyone pay the same federal income tax.
I think it makes sense, everyone pays the same rates to the federal government, if your city or state wants to charge additional taxes they can, but they don't get a discount on their federal taxes. Everyone pays their fair share.

As for the other comments that Ocasio Cortez will realize that things can't be demolished with the wave of the electoral hand, I'm not so sure.
Firstly she's went to school for economics and international relations, she's nearly 30 and a Congresswoman. 
She's gotten a LOT of mileage out of these crazy ideas. For celebrity politicians being thoughtful, reasonable and competent isn't an asset, you've got to charge blindly ahead. You lose points for backing down.

Quite simply she's either a blithering idiot, or invented an outrageous political character to win votes.

Her "climate change plan" isn't affordable, and she's arguing that people aren't taking this seriously with the question "who's going to pay for it".
For someone who majored in economics, she should understand that it will take a lot of work to accomplish her plans (particularly in 10 years), with money as a proxy for labour, there simply isn't enough labour to do all that work (let alone all the other stuff that runs the country)

I think we have a problem that all the media coverage seems to go to the extremists, and there is so little reasonable discussion or debate.


----------



## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

MrMatt said:


> Her "climate change plan" isn't affordable, and she's arguing that people aren't taking this seriously with the question "who's going to pay for it".
> For someone who majored in economics, she should understand that it will take a lot of work to accomplish her plans (particularly in 10 years), with money as a proxy for labour, there simply isn't enough labour to do all that work (let alone all the other stuff that runs the country)
> 
> I think we have a problem that all the media coverage seems to go to the extremists, and there is so little reasonable discussion or debate.


Certainly its not affordable, and probably not realistic. I think she's sort of hinted at this already. But the fact that its been talked about repeatedly by all sides and is being discussed a lot, means it has some traction. It will never come to fruition, but some part of it might, which is a good thing. It would be neutered substantially to appease the right, but the left will still cheer. I suspect Democrat higher ups are letting her talk and be front and center (even if they look at her with eyes of a slightly disapproving parent in public) just because it moves the 'baseline discussion' a bit further in to the progressive territory.

Harris, Biden and ORourke are the only ones that stand a chance in 2020.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> oh oh this is rampant sexism dating from the 1970s. Half a century ago. Alas remnants survive in the white house today & in some crabby old internet forums ... each:
> 
> on the bright side of things, ocasio-cortez has picked up american youth that voted for early barack obama in 07-08. Same youth that first elected JFK. It's their energy that will birth the new america, not decaying rococo ruins like donald trump
> 
> ...


well pie, we agree that AOC is hot and lets face it, all kinds of voters are swayed by a candidate's physical appearance, regardless of what they have upstairs, we see that right here in our own country don't we pie 

it may well be true that support for the democrats is well over 50% of the electorate ... but that don't mean diddly pie ... we elect presidents via the electoral college, and that is not going to change for a long, long ... long ... time

and even if the dems squeak by in 2020, they won't have 60+ in the senate

and we are moving toward another conservative on the supremes since ruthie ginbsberg is gonna reach down one day to pull up her support hose and just keep on going south god bless her, the feminist icon that she is ... maybe i should check the latest line at ladbroke's on her 2-year viability

no, the "greening" of america is gonna take some time pie

which is not to say that one day, it might get there

maybe the democrats will declare "greening" a national emergency as our dumb-shite president has just done with the border wall

and we can all become good party members and shout: "LONG LIVE OUR GLORIOUS MOTHERLAND AND OUR PRECIOUS LEADER ALEXANDRIA OCASIO CORTEZ, MOTHER OF THE PEOPLE" !!!

oh yeah, i hope i live to see that one


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Oh......Oh.......the crazies in the right wing media are turning on Trump.

Ann Coulter has been calling out Trump on Twitter for days, calling his wall a "garden trellis that extends for yards and yards"..........lol.

They are mocking him now that he has nothing left to give them.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

nobleea said:


> C I suspect Democrat higher ups are letting her talk and be front and center (even if they look at her with eyes of a slightly disapproving parent in public) just because it moves the 'baseline discussion' a bit further in to the progressive territory.
> 
> Harris, Biden and ORourke are the only ones that stand a chance in 2020.


It shifts the Democratic party further left. Being way out there, totally unrealistic and seemingly unaware of how unreasonable they're being alienates swing voters.


----------



## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

this actually might bode well for the democrats if they go ahead and have their war between the far left and the moderates and decide what kind of party they want to be

the republicans have so far done everything they can to avoid defining themselves and essentially will follow any leader who they think can keep them in power regardless of how incoherent his ideas are

republicans have always sensed their minority status and they are better political fighters but as a party they have completely now lost their way and abandoned their ideals

that they are lining up behind this dangerous "national emergency" shows how far gone they are


----------



## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

I've said it before but the Democrats are going to squander all the goodwill and momentum they gained last November . The US as a whole is a Right-centrist so Pelosi's gotta reign in these so called "progressives" before they hand 2020 back to the Republicans and Trump. Ocasio Cortez, full of energy and ideas and no experience ,already has been branded as a job killer for her part in Amazon pulling itself and 25000 potential jobs out of New York . Apparently she does not know that tax incentives for mega corps are not actually cash that can be put towards schools and subways. The left wing media has it right when they say the Dems are shooting themselves in the foot with unforced errors .


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I am unsure that AOC was 100% responsible for the amazon pullout. GOP will try to portray it as that but I think there were much more factors at play.


----------



## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

kcowan said:


> I am unsure that AOC was 100% responsible for the amazon pullout. GOP will try to portray it as that but I think there were much more factors at play.


No not 100% but she had a part in it along with other "progressives" . Her apparent celebration of the outcome was also panned by the LEFT wing media .


----------

