# Investing for retirees



## aldur1 (Aug 17, 2011)

Hi everyone, my mom is going to be downsizing and retiring soon. I was wondering if any of you would so kind to point me to some resources -online or literature that discusses investing options for retirees.

Also I have another question. For people on fixed income during to the 2007 financial crash, do you know on about how much their income (from their investments) dropped as a result. For instance if someone was deriving ~$30,000/year from their investments how much did that drop during 2007.

I'm just asking to get an idea of a worst case scenario.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

I think what you really want is investing strategies for retirees as I believe all investments available before retiring are still available after retiring. Note that use of an RRSP will change but based on your followup questions, I'm not sure that you are looking for the types of accounts.


For the 2007 financial crash - any drop for investment income would be related to where the retiree was getting the income and is therefore not easy to say.

For example, a retiree using dividends for income would have had no change of income if the investments were Canadian bank stocks. I believe that none of the Canadian banks missed a dividend or cut their dividends. They might have been concerned about the bank stock share price fluctuating from $60 to $30 and then getting back to $60 - but the dividends didn't vary.

If the retiree was using an oil company that cut their dividends, then their dividend income would have dropped (as well as the stock share price as investors don't like dividend cuts).

If the retiree was selling investments to get income, then they probably would have the same income but depending on when they sold - the capital could have been eroded. 

For example, selling BMO in Dec 2007 around $60 a share requires fewer shares sold compared with Jun 2008 around $42 a share. This would be a double hit to their income as in addition to more shares being sold, there will be less dividend income going forward as there are fewer remaining shares to provide the dividends.

So the timing of any sales and whether there are other investments that make more sense to sell would have had a big impact.


The worst case scenario depends on how good the investment selection was & how good the investment manager is. The worst case for the investment is that dividends are stopped & the company goes bankrupt so that income stops with the stock becomes worthless.

However - if there's a range of investments pay dividends and the dividends are the only part being counted on for income, if 10% of the portfolio has the worst case - there's still 90% of the income being paid.


It's probably good to hear what others have experienced but it's of limited use if one does not know the design of the portfolio, what risks were taken and where the income was expected to come from.


Cheers


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I think we need to know more from the OP about the approximate level of investments, e.g. mid-6 digits, 7 digits, etc. and how she is currently invested at this time, i.e. full service brokerage, investing account at her local bank, discount brokerage, financial advisors like Investor's Group, and whether she will have a DB pension, etc. Also perhaps her age at retirement. What we say here is somewhat dependent on that, because as Eclectic12 has said, very little would/should change with respect to investing post-retirement EXCEPT perhaps: 1) adjusting her asset allocation towards more fixed income rather than equities (year by year over time), 2) thinking about the income stream that will come from any RRSP when it RRIFs at age 71, etc.

The effects of the 2008/2009 debacle will vary greatly from investor to investor depending on how they were invested at the time, whether they did something stupid at the time such as 'selling low', etc. If an investor was invested somewhat along Couch Potato lines with a Cdn bond component, Cdn equity component, and US/Int'l equity component, the cash flow stream would 'most likely' have decreased at least a bit. Reasons:
1) Several US (and Int'l) financial stocks eliminated or reduced their dividends
2) Some Cdn stocks reduced their dividends especially in the commodities/resource sector
3) Fixed income generation has slowly reduced as bonds and multi-year GICs have matured and renewal interest rates have been lower

A possible proxy of the effect would be looking at year-to-year income distributions from some balanced funds, perhaps Mawer Balanced Fund http://www.mawer.com/mutual-funds/performance-and-distributions/distributions/ with a suggestion to back out the cap gains component to see what the plain vanilla income component was. A similar thing can be done with, for example, PH&N Balanced fund or Monthly Income fund.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

_For example, a retiree using dividends for income would have had no change of income if the investments were Canadian bank stocks. I believe that none of the Canadian banks missed a dividend or cut their dividends. They might have been concerned about the bank stock share price fluctuating from $60 to $30 and then getting back to $60 - but the dividends didn't vary.
_
That's right, dividend income (who hold Canadian banks) even increased during 2008-09 for those who was DRIPing.
I did some research among US dividend champions (25 years of div increases).... about 100 companies continue to increase dividends even through 2008-09.
Companies (from those who previously increased dividends for at least 25 years) below decreased or suspended dividends :
ASBC, AVY, BXS, BAC, BBT, CHFC, CMA, FNB, FITB, FULT, GCI, GE, KEY, LZB, LM, LNC, MAS, NPBC, ONB, PEBO, PFE, PGR, RF, STT, SVU, SUSQ, SNV, USB, UDR, UBSI (btw, I've never heard about majority of them), even though majority of those did increase dividends later.
A lot depends on size of portfolio, but if even during 2008-09 somebody had portfolio of about 40 dividend champions and had 2-3 stocks from this list , income would grow.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I think it would be very useful for the OP to look at some major ETFs because the web sites have distribution histories, so you can see how the cash paid out varied during the crisis. Just find the web site for these ETFs and look at distribution history or dividend history

USA, I think us.ishares.com:
- IVV (S&P 500)
- DVY (dividend stocks)
- IYR (American REITs)
- AGG (bonds)

Canada, go to ca.ishares.com:
- XIU (the TSX)
- XRE (REITs)
- XBB (bonds)

At a quick glance for instance I see a drop in DVY income of up to 40%... certainly very substantial.
On the broad S&P 500 it was more like 20% income drop at its worst point.
On American REITs it could be as much as 45% drop in income

You'll probably want to graph those numbers to see not the 'worst' but the smoothed average. I think this could indeed be a very useful little study. Lest we forget how sharply distributions can decline. Things like "dividend stocks" and REITs seem particularly vulnerable to this.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

In response to Gibor, I suspect we are not talking only about dividend income, or at least the OP has not said so. A balanced portfolio (at least of some significant size) contains many things across asset classes and geographic regions.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

AltaRed said:


> In response to Gibor, I suspect we are not talking only about dividend income, or at least the OP has not said so.
> A balanced portfolio (at least of some significant size) contains many things across asset classes and geographic regions.


The OP is asking for info on what retirees should do and what retiree's experience was for investment income drops during the 2007 financial crises.
Playing devils advocate - at this point, the full range of retiree portfolios are in the mix.


Cheers


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

AltaRed, I understand that OP asking about dividend income from equities or bonds, GIC/HISA portion is clear.
James, I don't think it's correct to look at S&P500 or TSX index , it's the same like to talk about average temperature on the Earth . S&P500 include tech (nasdaq) stocks as well as for example pharma, include stocks that increased dividend for 50+ years and those who paid 1 or 2 years (prior to 2008).


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Hmm... not sure then. Although I think looking at ETF distribution history is still the way to go.

Wouldn't the TSX and S&P 500 be a core part of everyone's portfolio, even retirement portfolios? That's why I included them.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

gibor said:


> AltaRed, I understand that OP asking about dividend income from equities or bonds, GIC/HISA portion is clear.


Hmmmm ... I guess it all boils down to how one interprets the " ... people on fixed income ... " part. 
I was reading this as the retiree is on a reduced income from a company pension of some form.

The later part about " ... their income (from their investments ... " as well as the "... deriving ~$30,000/year from their investments ... " does not indicate if the income is from equities, bonds or savings.


Cheers


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

I'm wondering if any of Canadian REITs cut their dividends during 2008-9? Big US REITs? Just know that O, WPC were rising dividends....


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

Hi A1 ( OP),

Some basic principles and there are plenty of variations underscoring the Basics.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-12-best-retirement-investing-lessons-2013-08-28?pagenumber=1

All the best.


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## aldur1 (Aug 17, 2011)

Hi everyone thank you for all the useful points. I've been following various PF bloggers for a while and I'm fairly comfortable in my knowledge when it comes to investing in the asset growth phase of life. But I'm afraid I'm fairly ignorant when it comes to wealth management during the retirement phase. 

Some people were asking what I meant when I said income. I was envisioning an income from a blended mix of dividends, interest from bonds, and distributions from reits. Right now I think downsizing will leave my mom around 400k in cash -that's after things like the RE fees. The problem is that my father (now deceased) and mother didn't manage their finances that well so 400k will be the primary source of income during retirement. She was mostly a stay at home mom so negligible CPP. I fully expect to be paying some of her bills because any income from the 400k won't be enough to cover her expenses.

I realize my question about the drop in investment income during the 2007 crash was very broad and the answer is very dependent on personal circumstance. Though I find it a little odd that there's no shortage of reports of how much people's assets dropped during the 2007 crash but I don't hear much reports on how it affected the distribution side of things. 

I do remember reading a story concerning an author of dividend investing and ended selling all his stocks because he got spooked by the crash.

Anyways thanks for the responses. You've given me a lot to consider.


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

If her resources are limited to the $400k unsheltered and to her OAS, and she is healthy w/ a good life expectancy - then purchasing an annuity may make sense. If she's 65, $100k would buy her ~$540/mo for life.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

@aldur1,

I suspect their incomes didn't drop very much, IF, they were diversified.

Like James4 wrote, some DVY ETF for dividend stocks or holding them outright would have been good. Still is.

In Canada, some XIU providing some income or Canadian dividend ETFs like ZDV or XDV would have been good. Still is.

XSB or other short-term bonds in a registered account would have been good. Still is.

I guess I'm saying unless you had to draw down capital, you would have been fine. This is why I prefer a blend of income produced assets and also those focused more on capital appreciation. If markets tank, you're not too worried about drawing down capital to live from; the income produced assets keep on producing.

Along with Eclectic, "people on fixed income" can mean different things to different people.

@aldur1, here is your article, I think:
http://www.thestar.com/business/per...and_hold_investing_guru_sells_all_he_has.html


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## aldur1 (Aug 17, 2011)

Hi I have another question. I've read that currency hedged funds tend not to better than their non-hedged equivalents over the long term. How big a deal is currency risk for retirees?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Currency risk should be a big deal if one has the proper asset allocations. If a retiree does not like excessive exposure to swings in the USD and Euro, then reduce the allocations to those jurisdictions. As many have said, to the extent one owns multi-nationals, or even Canadian companies with ex-Canada business, there is built-in currency exposure anyway.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Well based on those ETF distribution histories you can see the drop in 'income' (distributions) from a portfolio was at least -20%. If someone was heavier in the dividend/REITs then the drop was more like -30% to -40%.

That's pretty substantial for someone relying on income from the portfolio The thing is, those declines didn't last very long... less than a year. It could have lasted much longer and I suspect it will next time.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Yeap, James is correct. Out of curiousity I calculated drop in ETF income. In 2 years perios 2008-10 it was the biggest drop, but interesting that both SPY and SDY dropped the same 20% . Interesting what were SDY holdings back in 2008-10?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

aldur1, imho you first should talk to your mother and explain her options... for example , my mom has 4 times less in cash than yours, and she beleives that all those stock markets, MFs etc - just a bogus, big ponzi scheme.... I didn't want to convince her , so just put her money into different HISA and GICs...


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Exactly present the information and have your mom make her own decision about what she wants to do.

Desired risk is a very personal thing. Just explain the various options as well as the pros and cons of each.

e.g. stocks, pros - could perform at 6% a year or more, cons - could swiftly crash 50% and like Japan may still be down in 30 years
GICs, pros - guaranteed returns, CDIC is govt insurance, cons - returns are relatively low and inflation could wipe out the gains


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

gibor said:


> I'm wondering if any of Canadian REITs cut their dividends during 2008-9? Big US REITs? Just know that O, WPC were rising dividends....


It may depend on what the REIT was involved in ... a quick check of Riocan shows increases in Sep 2006, Oct 2007 and Jan 2013.
Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT on the other hand shows cuts in Mar 2008 & Aug 2009, where it is currently paying something like 50% of what it did.


I'm not sure if there was any impact from the legislation changes but it's good to bear in mind that the legislation changes had a bunch of trusts switch back to corporations . So when looking a retiree's income, it may not be as simple as the crash as some like Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund decided it wasn't worth the cost of switching so that the cash distribution "cut" was the new taxes being collected.


Cheers


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

aldur1 said:


> Some people were asking what I meant when I said income. I was envisioning an income from a blended mix of dividends, interest from bonds, and distributions from reits ...


So it would appear that a balance fund or ETF for the index would be a good estimating point.




aldur1 said:


> I realize my question about the drop in investment income during the 2007 crash was very broad and the answer is very dependent on personal circumstance. Though I find it a little odd that there's no shortage of reports of how much people's assets dropped during the 2007 crash but I don't hear much reports on how it affected the distribution side of things ...


Yes ... as an example, when I checked Riocan's REIT distributions, they were increased during the crash, where Chartwells Seniors Housing REIT cut theirs.

Good point on the reporting of drops.


Cheers


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Never followed Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT , it looks like a very specific Senior housing REIT..... I was checking some big global REIT like REI, CUF, AX, HR.... and didn't find that they cut distributions


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

^^^

That's pretty much what I thought ... but to avoid anyone misunderstanding and thinking that none of the Canadian REITs cut distributions, I figured I'd include an example of the opposite.

Yet another example that what was bought will have direct impact. 

Another factor that IMO is being underplayed is whether the investor joins the panic & sells to lock in a loss, where if they had stayed the course, at worst it would have been a small income drop.


Cheers


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I know for sure, REI and HR didn't cut during the Great Recession. I own them and didn't see a distribution reduction.


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

My Own Advisor said:


> I know for sure, REI and HR didn't cut during the Great Recession. I own them and didn't see a distribution reduction.


???

My distributions were cut. Did you hold them in 07-08? My H&R Reit distrubutions were cut in half. In fact, even with all the increases over 5 years, they still haven't returned to $0.12


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Some Canadian REITs cut distributions during the last economic slowdown. Again just look at cash distributions from XRE, since it passes along the REIT distributions.

I already had a spreadsheet with each quarter's distributions and here is a chart of the trailing 12 month distributions from XRE (each data point is a sum of the trailing 12 months of XRE distributions)









This shows distributions peaking at $0.90 at the market highs before the crisis, then a decline to around $0.65, and finally a rebound up to $0.75
So REIT distributions were cut by a lot ... around -28% ... and even today are still -16% below the past peak levels.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

james4beach said:


> Some Canadian REITs cut distributions during the last economic slowdown. Again just look at cash distributions from XRE, since it passes along the REIT distributions ...
> 
> This shows distributions peaking at $0.90 at the market highs before the crisis, then a decline to around $0.65, and finally a rebound up to $0.75
> So REIT distributions were cut by a lot ... around -28% ... and even today are still -16% below the past peak levels.


That's all well and good ... but I can't help wondering how applicable it is to the individual investor.

When I look at their top ten holdings, which represents a little over 84% of the fund holdings - AFAICT, H&R REIT is the only one with a distribution cut. I suppose the amount held could account for the individual REIT 50% cut translating to smaller XRE cut.

It makes me wonder if the underlying index was changed which forced matching XRE changes.

If not, as long as the investor skips the one - their experience is going to be dramatically different.


Cheers


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

But the typical income-for-retirement portfolio does hold either XRE or something like it, right? I see people post their portfolios all the time here it usually has a REIT index, and some preferred shares, etc.

The XRE distributions declined a lot. Why exactly I don't know. Some amount of those distribs are also capital gains, right? So maybe it was the lack of capital gains

Would be great if someone who knows more about REITs and XRE could post about this, I'm curious why those distributions declined so much


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

To clarify Sampson, I started buying in 2009 and 2010, so after the recession.

REI.UN
http://investor.riocan.com/Investor-Relations/distribution-info/Distribution-History/default.aspx

HR.UN
http://www.hr-reit.com/finance/history.asp

I did not hold any REITs in 2008 or prior. The market low was in March 2009, no?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Eclectic12 said:


> That's all well and good ... but I can't help wondering how applicable it is to the individual investor.
> 
> When I look at their top ten holdings, which represents a little over 84% of the fund holdings - AFAICT, H&R REIT is the only one with a distribution cut. I suppose the amount held could account for the individual REIT 50% cut translating to smaller XRE cut.
> It makes me wonder if the underlying index was changed which forced matching XRE changes.
> ...


Those ETF distributions are tricky! For example ZRE cut distribution in August 2012, even though many of their holdings increased dividends and I beleive no one cut. I even sent than email to BMO asking this questions, I got some complicated answer and didn't get waht was justification for div cut.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

My Own Advisor said:


> To clarify Sampson, I started buying in 2009 and 2010, so after the recession ...
> 
> I did not hold any REITs in 2008 or prior. The market low was in March 2009, no?


True.

However, the OP was interested in effects on those that already owned investments. For H & R, the impact would have been a cut of 50% in that time frame.



Cheers


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

Eclectic12 said:


> For H & R, the impact would have been a cut of 50% in that time frame.


As an interesting aside, I don't know how many of you have actually seen the Bow Tower that almost sank H&R. I recalled walking past the excavated site during that crash, and H&R with serious liquidity problems, I didn't think it was going to be built.

Now it's the most prominent building in town, along with weird dome head art statue - obscuring classic views of the Calgary Tower in most skyline shots. It has recovered a tonne and I was fortunate to keep adding to it during the crash, and boy did this stock ever recover.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I was curious about the Bow as well Sampson. I recall it almost killed HR.UN as you have mentioned.

Currently trying to add to CWT.UN actually, approaching 52-week low but I suppose most REITs are.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

gibor said:


> Those ETF distributions are tricky! For example ZRE cut distribution in August 2012, even though many of their holdings increased dividends and I beleive no one cut. I even sent than email to BMO asking this questions, I got some complicated answer and didn't get waht was justification for div cut.


Another example ZEB that contains only 6 Canadian banks. It didn't exist in 08-09, however, in 2010 ZEB paid 0.610338 in distributions and in 2011 0.591. Why distributions were cut by more than 3% if no bank cut their dividends?


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Good point gibor. Which is why I try to own Canadian stocks directly where I can afford it. For CDN dividend stocks, there are probably only 40-50 worth owning because they provide consistent dividends and/or increase them over time. 

The exception to my rule is VTI and VXUS. I will never have the money to afford 9000 stocks outside Canada.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Would be great if someone who knows more about REITs and XRE could post about this, I'm curious why those distributions declined so much


http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/why-etf-distributions-fluctuate/



> The bulk of the drop in distributions in XRE can be explained by fund inflows. XRE had total assets of $290 million at the end of 2008. In 2009, the fund experienced $407 million in inflows.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Wow CC, thanks for that reply and for doing that research. I hope that others doing this 'income investing' and living off distributions also reads your post.

Correct me if I got it wrong but you seem to be showing there that when there are big *inflows* into a fund (new units being created) the distributions per share can fall. Conversely does that mean that when investors flee a fund (the fund suffers outflows) that distributions could increase as a result?


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Conversely does that mean that when investors flee a fund (the fund suffers outflows) that distributions could increase as a result?


Yes, the converse is true as well and you can easily construct a similar example. 

Day 1: ETF has 100 units. NAV of $10.
Day 10: ETF receives $100 of dividends. Expected $1/unit distribution at end of month ($100 dividend/100 units).
Day 20: 50 ETF units are redeemed at $11. 
Day 25: ETF distributes $2 / unit in distributions. ($100 dividend/50 units). NAV falls to $9.

Note that though your distribution might rise or fall, your overall wealth remains the same. i.e. the increase in NAV (or fall in NAV) compensates you for the decrease in distributions (or increase in distributions). In other words, investors can simply sell units to make up for any shortfall in distributions.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

The total return picture once again 

Mind you if an XRE investor had sold some shares to make up for the distribution cuts, they would have pretty much been selling shares at the worst possible time (the exact moment they would have been better off buying shares)

Just good reminders overall to not have too much expectations based purely on distribution and distribution yield. "Income investing" is such a popular theme around here and it worries me


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/why-etf-distributions-fluctuate/


CC

Really appreciate that post. So that could explain why the payout is so low on VDY as the fund is growing.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

liquidfinance said:


> So that could explain why the payout is so low on VDY as the fund is growing.


I haven't looked at VDY closely but fund inflows would explain why its distributions are lower than the dividend yield of its components. As long as VDY tracks its index closely, investors should be happy.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

james4beach said:


> But the typical income-for-retirement portfolio does hold either XRE or something like it, right? I see people post their portfolios all the time here it usually has a REIT index, and some preferred shares, etc.
> 
> The XRE distributions declined a lot. Why exactly I don't know. Some amount of those distribs are also capital gains, right? So maybe it was the lack of capital gains
> 
> Would be great if someone who knows more about REITs and XRE could post about this, I'm curious why those distributions declined so much


My retirement income does not include any ETF's...too many damaged companies that I refuse to own. I do rely on dividend payments for my income (as well as taking a couple flyers to provide some capital gains)


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/why-etf-distributions-fluctuate/


I've been thinking about this and I do see a problem with the explanation. 

All things being equal when a stock goes ex div the price will drop by the div amount. 
So in the case of the example if the underlying stock within an ETF went EX for $1 the nav should drop by $1
When the $1 gets paid to the fund the Nav should then be back at $10

Then once the ETF has determined the payout and goes ex it should then drop the NAV by the amount of the divi. 

So assuming your 100 unit to 200 unit example The investor who purchases 1st will be giving up cash to the new investor. 

Surely the only way around this would be the manipulation of the unit value?


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

james4beach said:


> But the typical income-for-retirement portfolio does hold either XRE or something like it, right?
> I see people post their portfolios all the time here it usually has a REIT index, and some preferred shares, etc.


I don't know what is typical ... all I know is that for the REITs I had - none of them cut their distributions.

Trusts on the other hand - I'd have to check what I held prior to the crash and see how it all panned out, I think two cut and the rest didn't but haven't checked.
It's all muddy water anyway as I:
1) don't depend on it for income.

2) bought at some of the Mar lows.




james4beach said:


> The XRE distributions declined a lot.
> 
> Why exactly I don't know. Some amount of those distribs are also capital gains, right? So maybe it was the lack of capital gains
> 
> Would be great if someone who knows more about REITs and XRE could post about this, I'm curious why those distributions declined so much


I'd think a good starting point would be to find out what was in the index at the time and in what proportions XRE held it.

It's not obvious to me either why the drop ... 


Cheers


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

liquidfinance said:


> I've been thinking about this and I do see a problem with the explanation.
> 
> All things being equal when a stock goes ex div the price will drop by the div amount.
> So in the case of the example if the underlying stock within an ETF went EX for $1 the nav should drop by $1
> ...


Good question liquidfinance. But in this example, the ETF distributed $100 to 200 units (not $1 per unit). Therefore NAV drops by $0.50. The $1 extra in NAV invested by the latter investor was simply reinvested in the underlying index.


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## liquidfinance (Jan 28, 2011)

I understand that CC but where does the $1 of extra Nav from? All things being equal the Nav should remain at $10 after receipt of the dividend. 

Of course many trading days will have past and all things are not equal.


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