# Manulife Financial (MFC.TO)



## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...uggling-to-turn-things-around/article2087147/

I have got to be honest, I am a little surprised that the insurers aren't even close to thinking about increasing the dividends/payout ratios.

I figured that a year from those big losses, they would have things completely under control. 

*Also surprised that we didn't have a MFC thread on here yet.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Cal said:


> *Also surprised that we didn't have a MFC thread on here yet.


And did you have to traumatize me with memories? 

MFC was one of the very 1st stocks I bought and naturally a newbie's 1st mistake. [RIM was 2nd mistake], but 2 out of 15 CDN stocks was not bad.

I don't think MFC will return to pre-crisis levels for some time, but long term and very reason why I bought in the first place, was due to their Asian presence in several countries and where growth is expected to be much higher than in our markets, around 10%. 

Here are some numbers:

http://www.manulife.com/public/files/201/1/FactSheetAsia.pdf


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

Cal said:


> I have got to be honest, I am a little surprised that the insurers aren't even close to thinking about increasing the dividends/payout ratios.


I'm not surprised at all.

2 reasons, (i) they lost a tonne of money on bad loans. (ii) a lot of their revenue growth was do to a booming equity market.

The pain of (i) is mostly gone, but (ii) is still in effect.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I have one share of manulife purchased with intentions of starting my own little DRIP and SPP idea.. I feel like this was a waste of time right now and I am holding back on putting our money into more shares. Should I cash out one share?

Would you put any money in this company right now?


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

MFC's problems did not relate to bad loans. Rather it was their selling contracts that guaranteed principal and some upside on equity markets. They decided not to hedge these sales, then when markets went down they had to expense their expected losses. Consequently MFC is now highly levered to equity market levels. Some analysts have dubbed it "a very low fee equity mutual fund" I own a small position bought at $39 UGH!!
The fact that investors generally didn't know the extent to which the insurance companies were levered to equity markets illustrates the fact that their business models were not transparent and as it turns out, not very profitable. The banks have a much stronger business model. Consequently, I think they are much better investments at this point.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I bought at different prices, but I have since averaged down to $16+. $39 must hurt.  

This stock is definitely for the patient one, but long term I believe it will do very well.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Jungle said:


> Should I cash out one share?
> 
> Would you put any money in this company right now?


1. No

2. Buy 99 more


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> And did you have to traumatize me with memories?
> 
> MFC was one of the very 1st stocks I bought and naturally a newbie's 1st mistake. [RIM was 2nd mistake], but 2 out of 15 CDN stocks was not bad.


T.gal, you make mistakes?


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> And did you have to traumatize me with memories?
> 
> MFC was one of the very 1st stocks I bought and naturally a newbie's 1st mistake. [RIM was 2nd mistake], but 2 out of 15 CDN stocks was not bad.


Not bad at all. Curious of your holdings, what are the other 13? Do you only invest in dividend-payers? RIM, I know, is not a payer; capital appreciation only. 

Back to the post, ideally the best time to invest in MFC was when it was trading at ~ $12 but hindsight is always 20/20. 

I far prefer Sun Life to MFC.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

No rocket science FC, just common-sense CDN stocks we all know well [I have 15, excluding MFC & RIM; had forgotten 2 recent adds]:

The BIG 5/AGU/CNI-CNR/CPG/ENB/G/LUN/POT/SU/TCK/TRP. Might be adding a couple more & that will be it for the buy/hold CDN portion.

Others such as ECA/TLM & a couple others, I sold a few months back for under-performing and the much smaller & more volatile ones like coal/fertilizers/gold/oil/silver/uranium stocks, I trade until extreme volatility remains.

*Back to MFC:* I had bought several hundred shares all at once in late 09 given how inexpensive shares were & thinking no way it could get lower than what I had initially bought them for [just under $20] as just a couple of months prior to purchasing, shares had been at $27. Lol, how little I knew back then.  

Anyway, I managed to average down when the stock hit $11+ in 2010 & that was a big lesson in DCA. It's been dead money really, but at least the dividends have been buying me a few shares per Q. Live and learn, but if I could do it again, I would have done a 40/60 split with GWO rather than all MFC because I think of GWO as the BNS of insurers, ie: company has a conservative appeal and so that will be one of the 2 stocks I will be adding. Very long term, I think I won't regret having purchased MFC in such high quantity [I hope]. 

*KaeJS:* don't we all make mistakes? I'm just more patient than you & perhaps control greed/fear better because I have been at it a bit longer than you and learning as I go [on my own and from this great forum]. I have even learned from you & I'm not kidding!


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

@Toronto.gal, 

Thanks for the list, you have an impressive list of stocks! We own about 5 of the same, although I don't own all big 5, yet 

I'm a big buy and holder, I haven't sold one Canadian stock yet.

We all learn the "average down lesson" at some point, but I'm glad to hear your dividends are buying more stock. 10 years from now, you'll be extremely happy about that! But you probably already know that! I too, like GWO. I already have exposure to GWO via my holdings in PWF.


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

Square Root said:


> MFC's problems did not relate to bad loans. Rather it was their selling contracts that guaranteed principal and some upside on equity markets.


Yeah, shows how short of a memory I have. It was CIBC that I was thinking about. I guess that why people make the same investing mistakes over and over. I better just stick with index funds.


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

Financial Cents said:


> @Toronto.gal,
> 
> Thanks for the list, you have an impressive list of stocks! We own about 5 of the same, although I don't own all big 5, yet
> 
> ...


I learned the average down lesson on Nortel!! i think it was around $50 when I bought more, thinking it was a screaming bargain.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Financial Cents said:


> @Toronto.gal,
> 
> 1. Thanks for the list,
> 
> ...


1. No big deal FC; I was just lucky you did not ask for my international one as that's a bit longer and more secretive, lol.  

2. But sometimes there are market-driven reasons that makes it absolutely necessary to sell; case in point ECA for example, which I had bought with every intention of holding several years. I sold at a small profit before I got in the red, but knowing that I could get back in again at an even lower price than when I first bought in early 2010 [in the low $30's, but look at it now]. I used that capital to buy CPG instead & what a great decision that was & a stock idea I got from reading a member here, so thanks hp.  

3. Now I'm a big advocate of that strategy [averaging down], so much so that I did not realize/accept that on rare occasions, it is ok. to sell at a minor loss and make it up elsewhere [as I could have done with RIM]. Instead of having lost a few hundreds on 300 shares, I lost a few thousands [unrealized], but luckily I own AAPL too, which more than covers the losses. 

For idiotic reasons, I did not apply the ECA strategy with this particular stock unfortunately, but *thanks to this forum,* I have learned that valuable lesson, so thanks gibor & KaeJS; reading about your multi exits [in the red] taught me a good lesson indeed. 

To get back on topic, MFC is down.


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## philthygeezer (Aug 7, 2011)

Do you think the fundamentals for MFC have changed for the long term, or will MFC work it's way back to the same profitability as the other insurance companies.

The price/book value and the dividend look really good, especially if you consider MFC's low dividend in the past...

So if one bought a whack-load and held on for five years...?


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## philthygeezer (Aug 7, 2011)

Do you think the fundamentals have changed permanently or will MFC come back to make as much coin as the others. 

Price/Book and dividend payout are very attractive with this one.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

MFC is lowering down in price again as this market crashes. Would it be a good time to pick up some shares say at $11-12? 

Does this company have any chance of becoming profitable again? (like soon?)


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I am more into SLF, but I may pick up 100-200 MFC if it hits the $12ish range.

I am undecided.

$12 = 4.33% yield. I'd snatch it, considering it went to $9.xx in the march lows of 2009 and looks to be a surefire $15 stock at some point again in its lifetime. 

And Jungle, this company is profitable again. It had an EPS of 0.52 for first quarter 2011.


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## cannew (Jun 19, 2011)

Like many I got MFC assuming it was #1 for insurers. Have bought it again at the low which averaged out the yield to 3.7%. Will buy again if the current market drops considerably, else I'll hold till they recover.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

A purchase $12 and sell @ $17 (which it was at) was a gain of $41.60 %, not including dividends.


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## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

Jungle said:


> A purchase $12 and sell @ $17 (which it was at) was a gain of $41.60 %, not including dividends.


Curious, why not hold Jungle?


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Do not know enough about their business right now and have not investigated if they can recover.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

They have hedged some but not all of their equity market exposure. It will be a bargain for a good reason. It is a leveraged play on the markets!


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

If that is the case, this market downturn and low interest rates could make it challenging for them to provide what ever "guaranteed funds" they promised. 

I'm still skeptical about them but like this as a short term trade.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rofit-into-a-128-billion-loss/article2223793/


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## Midas (Jan 11, 2012)

*thoughts on Manulife - MFC*

Hi Newbie here,

what is everyones thoughts on Manulife? $12.10 a good time to buy? They have to recover sometime. Right?


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

i sold mine a few months ago around $12.50. Couldn't understand their financials and management seemed a little clueless. Very dependent on interest rates and equity markets. Probably high risk, potentially high return.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

MFC starts Q4 with a second straight quarterly loss. CFO is also leaving. They just can't catch a break.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Sounds like it was a surprise loss. That will get the CFO canned every time when it happens twice in a row..


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## newbi (Aug 19, 2009)

just sold all my positions on MFC today. I bought at 11.3x so still had some gain... not looking good


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## RoR (Jan 18, 2012)

Would anyone buy if is goes under 10?


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## mario 1 (Nov 6, 2009)

newbi said:


> just sold all my positions on MFC today. I bought at 11.3x so still had some gain... not looking good



Selling low is not what i'm doing


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

RoR said:


> Would anyone buy if is goes under 10?


The stock is a buy under 11.00.

It is a bigger buy under 10.00.

Back up the truck at 8.00.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

If MFC cuts their dividend and plunges to $8.00 or less (hopefully not), would you still back up the truck? Or is it just too large to fail ...unlike Confederation Life?


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

It's a good buy right around this price.. when would you rather buy Manulife, when equity markets have already gone up and interest prices are back to 4-5% and the stock is trading at $30..... or right now? One of the few value large caps in Canada.


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## Pvo (Jul 4, 2013)

wondering what peoples thoughts are on manulife in its current state around 21


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Pvo said:


> wondering what peoples thoughts are on manulife in its current state around 21


Getting close - I'd like to see it correct down to $18.


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## PatInTheHat (May 7, 2012)

Synergy said:


> Getting close - I'd like to see it correct down to $18.


Yeah this would certainly be ideal. I'm very bullish on financials and specifically insurance. I had been trying to get into MFC for a while and started a position today at $20.89. I will continue to add if it corrects.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

PatInTheHat said:


> Synergy said:
> 
> 
> > Getting close - I'd like to see it correct down to $18.
> ...


How long have you been trying?

It was $13 and change in April last year. Given it was ranging from around $10 through around $21 for quite a while, the question becomes whether it will move more towards 2008 levels of $40 or repeat what it's been doing since 2009.


Cheers


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

^ Was wondering the same question.

Stock is pretty much where it was in late 09, and has since had a few -50% type corrections, falling to the $10 level in 2011 and 2012.

*Synergy:* only 3 months ago the stock was below your desired price, did you miss it, or are you looking at adding more? The stock did increase 50% last year, but at some point, it will stop falling below prices of 5 years ago.


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## PatInTheHat (May 7, 2012)

Definitely late to the party. I've only been tracking MFC since around November and did not pounce on it then.

A lot of things were cheaper in april of last year. Not really something I consider when purchasing a trend.

I'm a believer that financials and insurance will continue to move higher and I have been looking to add to my insurance side which previously contained PWF, MET, AFL. 

I don't know if this is a correction or if things will start ratcheting up again on monday but I believe we are in a secular bull and this stock will be worth north of $22 unless the market continues to collapse as a whole.


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## MasterCard (Aug 2, 2013)

Pretty good week, sitting $21.4x.
With the sell-off a few weeks prior, it hit $22 and dipped back to $19.8x-$19.9x...I'm hoping it can beat $22 this time around.
Seeing lots of PTs of $24.
Thoughts?


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

It will keep going up. Same with SLF and GWO. Just a hunch. Bad for buyers.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

^ GWO is currently the lager in the group, down over 6% YTD. If it drops below $30 I'm looking to pick up a few shares. I tend to agree, I think they'll continue to do well but it wouldn't surprise me if there's a few bumps in the road on the way up.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Last I heard Yellen about it, rates may be on the rise next year, after the tapering is complete. Hopefully some of the insurers will begin to increase dividend payments shortly after. Manulife should have their 'fortress' cash reserves they sought to achieve by now.


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

I've been watching this one on and off. I would like to add either this one of GWO - preferably this one as I see more growth potential. I would like to see the price pull back to the ~$18 range before I would consider it a buy, though.


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

Manulife looks really interesting right now. Looks cheap on P/E, P/B, and P/CF. Management has done a good job de-leveraging the balance sheet. I really wish they increase their dividends. That said, I think this stock is cheap now, and I may look to initiate a position for a long-term hold in the upcoming days/weeks.


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## 0xCC (Jan 5, 2012)

If it was cheap back in May of 2014, how is it looking now?

The obvious concerns about this stock currently are related to low interest rates and China's growth. Are there any other big concerns?

Financials have taken a pretty big beating so far in 2016 and insurers have been no exception. Any thoughts on what issues MFC might face over the next couple of quarters and what might be a good entry point? I'm personally hoping to see something as close to $17.00 as possible but I wonder if it could go below that.


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

Big hit today. Maybe a good entry point?


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Canadian said:


> Big hit today. Maybe a good entry point?


im buying slowly, might keep going down but ill be there


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## 0xCC (Jan 5, 2012)

I have taken advantage of the price action today.

Earnings report was basically inline with expectations and they increased the dividend by 8.8%. If they are confident enough to raise the dividend I am ok with riding out a lower stock price for awhile.

Edit: The "inline with expectations" part seems to be before "impairment" charges related to oil and gas investments. Including those charges (which are basically mark to market charges) the earnings don't look great, a 60% decline from the year ago quarter. So that seems to be what is giving the market the current anxiety.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Anyone have a feel for what the sell-off today is about? It's dropped 3.5%. I took it as a buying opportunity, but am I missing something?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

gardner said:


> Anyone have a feel for what the sell-off today is about? It's dropped 3.5%. I took it as a buying opportunity, but am I missing something?


I think all the lifeco's are being hit today. Certainly both MFC and IAG that I own. Might be a drop in the bond yield curve.


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## Koogie (Dec 15, 2014)

AltaRed said:


> I think all the lifeco's are being hit today. Certainly both MFC and IAG that I own. Might be a drop in the bond yield curve.


GWO is down a bit too. PWF less so but it is not a pure lifeco.

If you want down, look at BNS over the last few weeks.


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## goldman (Mar 18, 2017)

Ya on both sides of the border, financials down big today. From what I'm reading it's because the yield curve has been flattening. The financials make money on the spread between long term rates and shorter term. Last I saw the spread between the US 10 year and 30 year was only 62 basis points


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