# chart S&P 360 Trading day cycle analog 2007 high



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

The analog in second chart could be playing out.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

free chart to view from safe haven website by Ian Thijm


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

If the high in the S&P is not already in another rally could be the final rally in the bulls coffin.


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

Whats the date of that first chart? Oct 13?
S&p is not at 1877 anymore

We had a solar eclipse in Edmonton 2 days ago. FYI


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Shebutters the 1877.70 low on the chart was the close on Oct 14. I posted the first chart because it shows that Ian analog saw this low coming & because of that I think it gives a higher degree of confidence the analog might hold up going into the future. 

Steve Puetz has done some interesting research regarding solar eclipses & crashes.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Of course this analog could fail @ anytime or play out slightly different it is something I m keeping an eye on.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> If the high in the S&P is not already in another rally could be the final rally in the bulls coffin.





> Of course this analog could fail @ anytime or play out slightly different it is something I m keeping an eye on.



wolfe for about a year now i have been thinking a very rough 40-50% probability that you are wrong in predicting a market collapse over the next few years. In other words, i had a tentative 50-60% probability that markets will rise.

but with the events of 2014 - starting for me with the invasion of crimea, just to put a somewhat artificial marker on current events - these days i'd increase that probability. I'd now be expecting a 60-70% probability that world markets will rise over the next several years. Chaotically, perhaps. But rise.

the way i see it, we're on the brink of massive global rearmament. All countries. Military forces everywhere are thirsting for new equipment. From multi-million dollar bombers down to better velcro closures. This will propel even dying economies into another burst. The treasuries will print the currencies as needed.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

I'm feeling a bit negative on this, but not due to any solar activity. there has been some big money boys doing serious selling, as we all know. Look at the volume on the S&P 500 during the decline, and compare it to the comparatively low volume on the rebound. the bounce doesn't have the same conviction as the decline, as measured by volume so I am sticking with a slightly negative view. I'm waiting to see if some more serious (high volume) selling resumes. Want to see if the next low, is lower or higher than the last one. And if the next high is lower than the Sept 18 one. Something happened to trigger that high volume selling, and don't know if it will resume and persist. Low volume pullbacks, and higher volume rebounds are much more positive, but we are not seeing that. So I'm tilting towards lonewolf's negative stance.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Pluto said:


> there has been some big money boys doing serious selling, as we all know. .


 The smart money flow index would indicate that the smart money is doing the selling the dumb money doing the buying.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

the European Central Bank reported today that, although euro banks collectively fall short of the capitalization they require by 25 billion euros, nevertheless the underfunded banks are all smaller regional institutions.

no major european bank has failed the ECB's year-long stress test audit, reports the NY Times.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/10...ntentCollection=Home Page&pgtype=article&_r=0

this is another reason why i look to a 60-70% mid-term probability that the bull will continue. I mean mid-term, not short-term. I'm looking 1-5 years out.

very short-term, over the next several months, i'd incline more to pluto's views. Now is an excellent opportunity for big institutional money to launch bursts of downward pressure in order to shake out smaller investors, including of course retail investors.

it's interesting to compare cmf voices during severe downdraft days now to voices heard here during the last big decline, the one that drove belguy into hiding under his bed at approximately the minus 12% level on the TSX. At that time, the voices could tolerate drops up to roughly 10-15% without panic.

but this time, the voices are speaking out in unease & fear with only a 5% drop. Hands like these do not have a firm grip.

(aside to lonewolf) maybe time to turn that simple put into a quadruple iron formation?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Tried to delete chart. The smart money flow index has been diverging against price since May 2013. I thought the recent price chart was of the 2014 price action but it shows price of 2013 on chart. The Sept high in 2014 the chart is some what similar showing a lower high going into the Sept 2014 high. Could not down load the up to date chart


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> deleted



but the thumbnail remains
it illustrates exactly what i mean
very short-term, there are downward professional pressures & markets are choppy

mid-term, world re-arming will drive economies, je crois bien


http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showt...ay-cycle-analog-2007-high?p=413809#post413809


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

lonewolf said:


> Tried to delete chart. The smart money flow index has been diverging against price since May 2013. I thought the recent price chart was of the 2014 price action but it shows price of 2013 on chart. The Sept high in 2014 the chart is some what similar showing a lower high going into the Sept 2014 high. Could not down load the up to date chart


Yes, that index is consistent with what I was thinking. Thanks. And this could be the last rally of the bull market. It seems tired based on price and volume action. High volume on pullbacks, lower volume on this rally....Hmmmmm. Very suspicious. However, as we all know, that can turn on a dime. Wait until the US mid term elections are done, and see how the sentiment is. Apparently for many decades the market has always been higher 12 months after the elections. Even so, that history doesn't prevent a serious pounding in the middle of the year. (After all, we had a very severe plunge in 2009, but 2009 ended up for the year.) Anyway I'm keeping my 50% cash right where it is until I see better value.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Pluto said:


> Apparently for many decades the market has always been higher 12 months after the elections. Even so, that history doesn't prevent a serious pounding in the middle of the year. (After all, we had a very severe plunge in 2009, but 2009 ended up for the year.) Anyway I'm keeping my 50% cash right where it is until I see better value.



even though 2009 was an inaugural year, any averaging statistic was over-ridden by the fact that 2009 was inextricably linked to the financial events of 2008, which was inextricably linked to the financial events of 2007.

the crash of 2008/09 was a mega-disaster, on a scale never seen before in anyone's lifetime. Hopefully we'll never see another one. It was so big i doubt it had any relationship to the presidential election of november 2008. Congressional elections might be another story, though.

i do admire 50% cash.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Given a choice between being short & making money in the 1987 crash or the 08/09 crash I would take the 1987 crash. 

DJI dropped 41.15% in something like a fib 55 days. 

From the 07 high to the 09 low might have been a bigger percentage drop DJI 54.43% but the speed of the decline was slower. The out of the money puts would have exploded in value more in 1987 then in the 08 decline. Back then I think the OEX might have been the most liquid for shorting stocks.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Pluto said:


> Apparently for many decades the market has always been higher 12 months after the elections. .


 In the DJI
One of the reasons I m so bearish going into the 2000 top the market closed higher every year for 18 years in a row. Going into the 1929 top the market closed higher every year for 9 years. ( if memory is correct it was 9 years) After that long string of closing higher going into the 1929 top it took something like 25 years to get back to the highs seen in 1929. I do not think that 18 year string of closing higher going into 2000 has been corrected yet. Of course I could be wrong & the 2000 -2002 & 07-09 corrections maybe was enough to correct the 18 years of positive years.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

.
here's the chart in the thumbnail below:










.

i believe we should ask *who* are the folks defining the Smart Money & also *how* are they identifying Smart Money movements in the markets?

that information would help to gauge how accurate the smart money trajectory on the chart might continue to be.

a longer time frame would offfer the same. I doubt there's a 20-year chart available for Smart Money. But if there were, a look/see to observe how it hugged or heralded the Dow could be useful.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

The smart money flow index for the DJI (can be used for any market) is calculated by taking the price action in 2 time periods the first 30 minutes & the last hour. The concept is the emotional inexperienced money buys & sells in the first half hour. The smart money buys & sells in the last hour of the day.


Todays SMI reading = SMI open gain or loss + last hour change


For example

SMI closed @ 10000 
During the first 30 minutes of the next day The DJI gained a total of 100 points, During the final hour, The DJI lost 80 points
Todays SMI is 10000 - 100 + (-80) = 9820

Humble pi the above chart is from fall of last year that is why I tried to delete it. I made a mistake I thought it was this years because it looked similar The high in Sept was not confirmed by the smart money flow index this year as well. I Cant find the chart I seen on the net to post the new one


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

lonewolf said:


> The smart money flow index for the DJI (can be used for any market) is calculated by taking the price action in 2 time periods the first 30 minutes & the last hour. The concept is the emotional inexperienced money buys & sells in the first half hour. The smart money buys & sells in the last hour of the day.
> 
> 
> Todays SMI reading = SMI open gain or loss + last hour change
> ...


Interesting. Why wouldn't the smart money sell in the morning if prices are usually higher in the morning?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

fascinating idea! wolf i must try this out! me i've almost never traded in the last hour of the day, so i guess that removes me permanently from the ranks of the SM

(recently though i've been noticing strangely wonderful new opportunities suddenly cropping up in goPro options around 3:30 pm & i've been wondering what they are doing there) (but now thanks to your definition i know to be wary, because maybe they are the SM)

i think it's fine to post an older chart when the update is not available, the older chart serves usefully to introduce the concept


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

the other thing i'm thinking is that dark room trading info normally gets sent to exchanges at the close, but maybe there are new regs or leaks that permit dark room trading to become more transparent in the last hour of the day, prior to the close?

you know that the SEC has been working on the problem of dark room trades. That they are invisible, therefore the retail investor trading on organized exchanges is never able to know the true bid or the true ask.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> That they are invisible, therefore the retail investor trading on organized exchanges is never able to know the true bid or the true ask.


The dark room trade information (bid/ask price, lot size) is sold by the various firms running the dark rooms to the HFT traders.
The HFT then exploits the end investor behind the dark pool trade.

These days, many of the digital-only exchanges are becoming dark pools of their own, with bid/ask spread different than other exchanges.
It is precisely this bid/ask spread that is exploited by the HFTs.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I believe we do need a good market correction to pull an all in QE from the Fed. This final blow out could be the final nail in the paper coffin as China and other nations continue away from the US dollar. Of course the Dow could fly until the true destruction takes place and the bond market falls apart. This paper derivative high frequency trading thing will blow up and a paper nightmare will come to be. This is why the rich people are buying collectibles, real estate and hard assets to get something for their paper while they can. Gold and silver should stay down as manipulation to cover up the paper problems continue until the physical can no longer be provided. We are nearing an end but not the way Lonewolf thinks it will end, but I could be wrong and gold and silver runs out now and the Fed throws in the towel.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

I don't think there will be a "mother-of-all-QE" this time. But I do believe there is more Q/E coming, in some form or another.
The US dollar is not strong enough to justify complete crushing using QE.
The depression in Europe and the stupidity of the Japanese is thwarting the plans of the US fed in trying to weaken the USD.
The USD has become stronger in spite of their best efforts to the contrary.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Here's a chart of each QE versus the SPY (S&P 500). After the end of every QE, a massive drop followed by a rise with the announcement of another QE


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Keep in mind that slight of hand and illusion as well as full scale propaganda through the mainstream media means the Fed could and may still be doing QE at the same pace as always or worse. They were using Belgium earlier and could be using many different buyers to sustain QE in an underhanded way.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Belgium was simply to offset Russia dumping US treasuries just before invading Ukraine...it is technically not Q/E.
Every country tries to protect its currency, and that is what the US was doing via fake funds registered in Belgium.

But you are correct that Q/E takes many shapes and forms.
It is not just the direct purchasing of US treasuries.
Open market operations by the FOMC to directly buy/sell equities, precious metals (esp. gold), etc. are also a form of Q/E.
So are swap deals with large investment banks to swap their toxic, illiquid assets at par value in exchange of govt. bonds.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

HaroldCrump said:


> I don't think there will be a "mother-of-all-QE" this time. But I do believe there is more Q/E coming, in some form or another.
> The US dollar is not strong enough to justify complete crushing using QE.
> The depression in Europe and the stupidity of the Japanese is thwarting the plans of the US fed in trying to weaken the USD.
> The USD has become stronger in spite of their best efforts to the contrary.


 When the cycle of mass deleveraging takes hold there will be a shortage of dollars to pay back the IOUs, The USD will gain purchasing power against most things including other currencies when there are so many IOUs on the USD to be paid back. Of course the mas deleveraging cycle will not last for ever.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Not all the IOUs will be paid


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> When the cycle of mass deleveraging takes hold there will be a shortage of dollars to pay back the IOUs, The USD will gain purchasing power against most things including other currencies when there are so many IOUs on the USD to be paid back.


I am not sure I understand...are you talking about a run on the US Dollar? i.e. foreign debt holders like China, Saudi Arabia, etc. refusing to roll over the debt, and demanding to be paid back?
The US can easily pay back in nominal terms...they can simply print more currency.
However, that will reduce, not increase, the USD's purchasing power.

Keep in mind that the US still is the single largest sovereign gold holder in the world.
Europe, collectively, perhaps has more gold but those countries can barely tolerate each other, let alone work together.
Also, some of the European gold is in the US (they might as well write it off already...they aint getting it back).

Lastly, keep in mind that the USD gaining purchasing power is very bad for the US.
That is precisely what they do not want.
If they wanted that, they could have easily achieved it by now.
If the US wants right now - this afternoon at 2:00 pm - they can appreciate the USD by 10%, or 20%, simply by issuing a very hawkish Fed statement.
It will crush gold, oil, and other currencies like the Yen & CAD.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Lonewolf is right the US dollar will rise if we get a deflation, debt, stock market crisis as people need US dollars to retire their US dollar debts. They will sell everything they can to pay margin calls including gold as the crisis ramps up. Of course the rise in the US dollar will be seen as a safe haven thing and is liquid causing more to jump in on the US dollar band wagon. 

The US may or may not be the biggest holder of gold because no one has ever seen it. Gold paper claims run at something like 100 to one to the available physical gold as gold has been lent out many times over. This scam is only a problem if someone wants delivery and the east is standing for delivery as they continue to get out of the US dollar so the crooks need to keep finding it like looting the Ukraine gold overnight so they can deliver it to keep the paper scam alive.

The system to get out of US dollar takes time as countries set up payment agreements in their own currencies. Plus the new banking, regulation and trading systems take a lot of time to set up as well. 

The US can't have a collapsing dollar because interest rates will rise and their paper scheme will fall apart. At the same time they don't want it to rise to much because it would also be bad for the US as you just said Haroldcrump.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

In the DJI

For what it is worth the Oct trick or treat rally to new closing highs for the month with such a large ranging high & low for the month is similar to 1901 May panic where the DJI then went on to make a new closing high in May. The next month in June the DJI topped out then declined 46%


40 yrs from 1974 is 2014 the 40 year cycle top this year ?


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

lonewolf, got another tool for your belt.... the MEGAPHONE

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bearish-megaphone-pattern-calls-for-stock-market-selloff-2014-11-12


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Shea our ears are ringing from wolf screaming through the megaphone for a very long time on this forum. The thing is he should be right but the Fed has done what no one thought it could ever do and that is manipulate all the world markets along with the help of the US military, diplomats and the CIA to ensure their plans can continue.


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