# Tired of the fear threads?



## martinv (Apr 30, 2009)

Could someone please start an "optimism" thread.
Is there some deep phsycological need for the constant "sky is falling" threads, news etc?
I try to avoid most of them but it seems almost every thread turns into some dire prediction.
So here is to the sun rising and a very nice cappuccino this morning.


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

I would, but I'm terrified of doing it.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Fear is good, it keeps everyone on their toes. All these "sky is falling" doomsday type threads help remind me that I can continue to buy a little more! Markets continue to climb the wall of worry. When these threads stop we may be in for some real trouble!


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## SkyFall (Jun 19, 2012)

Synergy said:


> Fear is good, it keeps everyone on their toes. All these "sky is falling" doomsday type threads help remind me that I can continue to buy a little more! Markets continue to climb the wall of worry. When these threads stop we may be in for some real trouble!


exactly!

When you start reading about too optimistic threads....... thats when sh*t gonna go south


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Fear is good, yes, but depressing. I suppose the doomsday threads give some people an outlet to vent. 

@Nemo2, funny


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

It is not just here you are seeing it but Hollywood as well since the 08 to 09 crash. There have been lots of end of the world or the end of the world as we know it movies and TV shows. This last year we had TV series out like Revolution, The One Hundred, Walking Dead and so on.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Nemo2 said:


> I would, but I'm terrified of doing it.


Agreed. It would probably get reported...


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I will continue to collect my dividends, retire early, and just generally have a kickass life. Enjoy your bunker, doomers.


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## bettyboop (Dec 13, 2011)

Jon_Snow said:


> I will continue to collect my dividends, retire early, and just generally have a kickass life. Enjoy your bunker, doomers.


Where is the "like" button??


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

I don't think the threads are all negative. Of course, having a lot of "beginner" investors on here means that that they don't realize when they are making mistakes. 

In a bull market it's hard to lose money, but that doesn't mean you're a good investor because you did. I think the more experienced investors here try to warn people of that. 

I see it a lot in the real estate threads...

"I can buy a rental for $500k, my payments are only $2000, I can rent it for $500 more, what a great deal!!!" Except they don't factor in vacancy, maintenance, taxes... They forget mortgage rates get renegotiated, and that they probably WILL go up...

Heck, I'm a buyer right now, having added 6 doors in the last year, but I won't buy something like that. 

It's the same in stocks, there are a few good buys out there, but not many at these prices. Does it really make sense that apple was the most valuable publicly traded company in the world like it was for a short time? I really like apple, and it's products, but calling for it to go up by a further 50% when it hit that status really didn't make sense...shortly thereafter it dropped a lot...now it's getting close again...has anything changed?

When the news gets bad, and people panic sell, I pay attention and buy. When people argue that everything is fine and dandy, even though logic says otherwise, I sell or ignore the market. It seems to have worked nicely for me.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

Nemo2 said:


> I would, but I'm terrified of doing it.


Nyuk nyuk nyuk...


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## Jacq (Feb 8, 2014)

I'm afraid (but not very afraid!) I tend to listen to someone like Seth Klarman, possibly one of the greatest investors *ever* when he advises caution. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-26/seth-klarman-says-markets-are-too-bubbly
But so much of energy, mining etc was so undervalued that it doesn't feel so frothy here in Canada.

CPG didn't cut their div in '08. But haven't raised it since, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 2-3 cent bump in the next couple of months.

I'm just gloomy that there's hardly anything cheap to buy out there these days. :biggrin:


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

"The sky is falling. The sky is falling."

--Chicken Little

By the way, it is just a fact that the markets do not go up in a straight line. Didn't I just hear that either the TSX or the Dow just reached record levels but they sure didn't do that in a straight upward motion. A pull back will come. They always do.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

I'm optimistic, and here's why. 

On his drive east, Alexander the Great, camped by a river side. His opponents, the Persians I presume, were on the other side of the river, fearful of an attack. Alexander had his soldiers march along the side of the river to a crossing. The Persians heard them, were fearful and ready to defend. But the Greeks didn't cross the river and attack, rather, they turned around and marched back to camp. Alexander had his men do this round trip daily for months. Gradually the Persians believed there would be no attack. Optimistically, they believed Alexander was merely exercising his troops - keeping them in shape for the long march home. Under the influence of this false belief, the noise of Alexander's marching army, and the clang of their weapons became like a lullaby, lulling the Persians to sleep. 
Then on one of those marches along the riverside, Alexander's men crossed and attacked. The Persians were taken completely by surprise even though all the signs of an imminent attack were plain to see. 

Human psychology does not change. The warnings of a market correction, or crash are in varying degrees ever present. And the worst does not happen. The warning signs, and the speeches of would be prophets become like a lullaby, and we go to sleep. We desire optimistic talk. Hope, not doom. So did the passive Persians. 

So on this thread we have a call: We want optimism! Vote for change! My guess is what will happen is: Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. And what's that? Economic cycles. They can not be eradicated. They will, despite great counter efforts, prevail. The market, a leading indicator, will likely see the next economic downturn before it is officially announced. And the way the market will tell us of the next recession is by high volume steep drops that come seemingly out of nowhere. 

I'm optimistic myself because I keep an eye and an ear on the marching troops. I resist being fooled by the lullaby. As soon as I see them crossing the river, I'm out of here. Good luck to the sleepy optimistic. Lots of them will get slaughtered on a full stomach.


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## the_apprentice (Jan 31, 2013)

^ Great analogy.


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## martinv (Apr 30, 2009)

Ahh, Nemo2 wins hands down! Interesting comments my post produced.
I do realize that the markets go up and down. They may continue to rise or drop 10, 20 even 50 percent tomorrow, next week, next month etc. but I cannot predict the future. No one can predict certainty even 5 minutes into the future.
In the meantime, I am enjoying my coffee and the sun is shining on the beautiful South West coast of Vancouver island. And a hope for a fast dry out for our Prairie neighbours!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I m glad I am not subjected to the fire and pestilence that some of our neighbours put up with. No wild fires. No floods. No tornados.

Just sunshine, calm blue waters and green mountains.

For a market meltdown, we have to see the abrupt end of QE for the S&P, and a decline in commodity prices for the TSX. Will both those things happen? Maybe. But at least I will know why.

I reserve my fears for life-ending events, having already lost three precious lives this year.

And I never get upset about anything that money can fix.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

kcowan said:


> For a market meltdown, we have to see the abrupt end of QE for the S&P, and a decline in commodity prices for the TSX.


Could be. I'm not sure why though. 
For me its US unemployment needs to be lower (for economic and political reasons) before they will be bold enough to raise rates. Unemployment needs to be 5.xx % or lower. Interest rate increases will lower stock values, but not necessarily prices in the beginning of the rate increase stage. At some point institutional investors, those with the power to move the market, are going to sell big and it will be seen in high volume, 2% or more down days in one or more major indexes. That's the Greeks starting to cross the river. When one or more major index falls below its 270 day Moving Average, that's the first of them reaching the other side of the river. Last good chance to check out. 

I'm not sure that a drop in commodity prices will be the tip off. Last time, unless my history is awry, I think stocks commenced a decline before, for instance, oil and potash prices plummeted. Too, abrupt ends to QE isn't necessary. For instance, in 1999-2000, Greenspan the gradualist, increased rates in frequent tiny steps. Nothing abrupt. Yet eventually the NASDAQ commenced a spectacular 1929-33 style decline. 
Low unemployment, rising rates, and finally, high volume 2% down days, are the best tip offs I have found. In the meantime, I'm optimistic. 

I keep harping on this in the hope that new folks who may be perplexed at the diversity of perspectives may eventually find some value in it.


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

I think most people forget that, aside from this board, the majority of people think the markets/real estate/business is still fine.

Heck, there are plenty of postings here that talk about great investment opportunities, cash flowing rentals, etc.

When money is at 3% it's hard not to make a profit...

There are very few, experienced investors that seem to remind people of life before the latest, albeit long bull run. People who remember gold at 250 for two decades, people who remember 21% mortgage rates, people who remember no chance of getting a job....life's been pretty good since the mid 90's...but there were hard times before then, between the bull that ended in the late 80's. 

Things go up, things go down...when people think things can only go up is usually a signal...


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Dow 36,000 !


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Just a Guy said:


> There are very few, experienced investors that seem to remind people of life before the latest, albeit long bull run. People who remember gold at 250 for two decades, people who remember 21% mortgage rates, people who remember no chance of getting a job....life's been pretty good since the mid 90's...but there were hard times before then, between the bull that ended in the late 80's.
> 
> ..


 Back in the 80s I read a book where some seasoned investor know a great bull market was going to be kicked off in late 82. They understood the market was going to run longer & higher then anyone expected so they hired some young inexperienced guys to look after there money because they understood they would have the guts to stay @ the party longer then the old experienced pros.

Prechtor could tell when he made a bad prediction in the market when he never received calls that cut him down for the call. When he made a good call @ market extreames he would get flooded with phone calls cutting him down.

Tim Wood another great market timer often said he would lose a lot of costumers, receive mail & phone calls about how stupid he was when he would call for a top or bottom @ major turning points.


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

I view the pessimistic threads as a positive sign. When things are so good that even shoe-shine boys are giving stock advice is the time to worry.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Maybe we are able to see that which we look for easier. As we got closer to the 2000 & 2007 tops the more I found to read that the market was topping. Lately everything I read that I think is worth its salt indicates market is getting ready to put in an important top. I start reading anything that says the market is headed a lot higher I & stop reading because it just makes no sense to me in what they are saying.


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

That is called confirmation bias.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

All three market timing services I subscribed to nailed the 07 high & the 09 low with in a week or so. don't subscribe to them anymore but all 3 including myself thinks the top is very close DJI & S&P. Do not follow the Canadian market.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> don't subscribe to them anymore


Why not?
If they can nail market tops & bottoms with that degree of accuracy, surely they are well worth the subscription price (how much is it, btw)?


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

I think everyone should read this fantastic book about risk analysis:
http://www.amazon.com/Against-Gods-Remarkable-Story-Risk/dp/0471295639


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> Why not?
> If they can nail market tops & bottoms with that degree of accuracy, surely they are well worth the subscription price (how much is it, btw)?


I am not sure about the news letters lone wolf subscribes to but I find most of them nail it very closely. The problem is they get highly technical and have a way out of every situation if they are wrong and if one out of 5 or so they are right then they can nail it.


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## OhGreatGuru (May 24, 2009)

It's an open forum. People should be allowed to express their fears and/or pessimism. As long as others are free to comment if they think posters are being paranoid and/or unrealistic. But if we only had "optimistic" opinions it would be the kind of boosterism that inflates markets well beyond their worth (remember hi-Tech?). And once in a while we need people to shout "The Emperor has no clothes" or the equivalent.

-- "I disapprove of what you say, but will defend to the death your right to say it". - Evelyn Beatrice Hall (often mistakenly attributed to Voltaire. Frequently re-phrased as "I disagree with what (or everything) you say, but will defend to the death your right to say it"


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

OhGreatGuru said:


> - Evelyn Beatrice Hall (often mistakenly attributed to Voltaire.


:encouragement:


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

HaroldCrump said:


> Why not?
> If they can nail market tops & bottoms with that degree of accuracy, surely they are well worth the subscription price (how much is it, btw)?


 Made a lot of money in 08 crash put most into GICs have very little in market now. The lady that does my taxes told me to not touch claiming the cost of these letters on my taxes with a 1000 foot pole said it was not worth the chance of being taxed as a business instead of paying on capital gains. Get 3 letters one says buy the other 2 say sell what do you do? @ the big turning points they seamed to agree with each other but it cost me if they don't all line up. I came up with my own system. Tim Wood cyclesman, Arch Crawford Crawford Perspective & Elliott wave international. They can all be found on the internet, Crawford was something like 250 a year. Warning though @ important market turns they can be spot on but most of their subscribers wont listen & lose money.


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