# How high can Bitcoin price go?



## jacebook (Jun 2, 2020)

The question, of course, is how high can Bitcoin's price go? The crypto coin is far from the decentralized solution to payments promised by its creators and it hasn't attained mass adoption

so. what do you think?


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## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

https://www.cryptocointrade.com/wp-...4/Bitcoin-Predictions-Josh-Rager-1024x466.jpg


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

I admire the blockchain technology but not the BitCoin itself.
The blockchain is very good as an inventory control system.
I also suspect (without proof) that BitCoin miners are selling BitCoin between themselves and thus manipulating the price.
In the confusion of a collapse of the American Empire how do you cash out?


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## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

Forget the fundamentals just look @ the charts. Stand aside unless the charts say the odds are in your favor.


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## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

My above link would not take. With a google search you should be able to find an elipse log chart by Josh Rager with trendline & Channel line where each peak takes 574 days longer then the previous peak to reach the upper channel of the elipse. The next peak is due in July 2023 @ 150,000. I like the look of this chart so put on a small position might work might not. For high reward to risk

I also like the seasonal trade of combining Bitcoin with Ethereum. can see the charts on Sesonax


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Doesn't matter how high it can go if you can't turn it back into USD .


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## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

calm said:


> https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager


 could not find the chart I was looking for on the link seams to come up on images on bing


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Some technical observations on bitcoin. Its movements have stabilized somewhat over the last year. Perhaps its a positive sign.

1 year return: +42%
2 year return: +33% CAGR
3 year return: +26% CAGR

Recent maximum drawdown: -62% during COVID crash
3 year maximum drawdown: -84% in 2018

These metrics are looking somewhat respectable, though it's still very early of course. If bitcoin is maturing into a real asset class, it would take many years to be sure.

The big problem I see is the second chart: bitcoin has a high correlation with stocks. It's acting a lot like a "risk asset" and it crashed exactly when the stock market crashed in 2020. This part is not encouraging because it won't be useful as an asset class if it just acts like a stock.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Ethereum also has a very high correlation with stocks, as shown here. The scales are different so don't take the magnitudes too seriously... the point is to show the similarity in movements.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Zooming in on the Feb & March crash. In each chart, the black line is the S&P 500 and the purple line is the other asset. The scale measures % decline since Feb 1.

The ideal, distinct asset class should behave differently than stocks during a crash. My takeaway from this is that gold & bonds performed their traditional diversification duties, whereas Bitcoin did not demonstrate such a thing.

1. Bitcoin, crashed along with stocks, actually _worse_ than stocks! (not ideal)











2. Gold, largely stable and did not crash with stocks (ideal)











3. Broad bonds, also stable and did not crash with stocks (ideal)











4. Government bonds, actually inverse movement from crashing stocks (very ideal)


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

I am very suspicious of BitCoin values. I have no evidence of corruption. It just does not sit well with me.

BitCoin value is easily manipulated just like the precious metal markets are.
We have watched all markets being manipulated. (Libor Rates and Forex.)
BitCoin value is based up what somebody is willing to pay for a BitCoin.
A large holder of BitCoin can sell to another large holder at a high price and then both sides of the transaction can claim that the value has increased.
Do we even know who is buying BitCoin?

I have always wondered about when the market crashes again, how do you cash out your BitCoin? When the market crashes and people need some cash, who is going to buy BitCoin from small time holders of the BitCoin?

How are BitCoin sales going to take place when electronic transfers and access is going to be severely restricted during a market crash?

In China everybody has an electronic wallet.
The government can dump digital currency into any electronic wallet without having to go through any bank. Digital currency is not created by a bank issuing debt.
I heard somebody ask Why do we still need a Wall Street if digital currency can simply be dumped into electronic wallets? (Digital currency is not loaned into existence.)


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

calm said:


> I am very suspicious of BitCoin values. I have no evidence of corruption. It just does not sit well with me.


I am very suspicious too. Due to this concern, my crypto currency holdings are 0.03% of my portfolio.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

I don't see bitcoin as useful, $2 for a transaction?
Monero is private and less than a penny.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrMatt said:


> I don't see bitcoin as useful, $2 for a transaction?
> Monero is private and less than a penny.


Why do we even bother with this bitcoin / ethereum / monero stuff? The useful one is Whoppercoin, which can be redeemed for hamburgers and fries.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Why do we even bother with this bitcoin / ethereum / monero stuff? The useful one is Whoppercoin, which can be redeemed for hamburgers and fries.


Monero is a good electronic cash replacement.
Well, when you can transfer money, quickly, electronically, securely, anonymously for less than a penny, that's useful.
Think cash, without handing over a physical object.

Ethereum is a tool, it's more complicated, but it's a leap forward in "contracts".
I'd say it's like serverless computing, it doesn't make sense why anyone would want to... until it suddenly makes sense. 
At least that's how I see it, and honestly I don't fully understand the implications, except that there is actual value in the technology.

Bitcoin, I have trouble understanding the value, beyond the market acceptance, it's slow, expensive, and public


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrMatt said:


> Bitcoin, I have trouble understanding the value, beyond the market acceptance, it's slow, expensive, and public


But how is this going to become an asset class if every year or two, some new and exciting crypto coin appears?

To prove itself as an asset class, it's going to need well over a decade of pricing history and liquidity. I'm not convinced that any of these crypto coins can make it.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

james4beach said:


> But how is this going to become an asset class if every year or two, some new and exciting crypto coin appears?
> 
> To prove itself as an asset class, it's going to need well over a decade of pricing history and liquidity. I'm not convinced that any of these crypto coins can make it.


I don't understand the "asset class" concept in terms of crypto.
They are actually attempting to solve a number of different problems, but the nuances of the differences is lost on the mainstreatm. I only have a passing interest, I don't think the valuation makes sense yet, but like my Google, Amazon or Apple stock purchases, I will likely be late to the party. That being said, I didn't lose any money dot-com crash, so there is value in sitting out until you understand it.

Saying "crypto" is like saying "securities", that could be stocks, bonds, futures, options, collaterized debt or any number of other things. Same with crypto.



Crypto as an asset is really just the trading usage, or application usage.
I see Monero (and maybe zcash) as a currency, I think there is value in extremely low cost electronic banking.
I see problems with bitcoin as a currency, and not much of an application platform, which IMO restricts its value.

The "value" of ethereum is it may be possible to host your application on ethereum "better" than traditional hosting methods. If/When this comes to pass, there is value there. 
To me that's the value it adds, and I think it's real value.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MrMatt said:


> To me that's the value it adds, and I think it's real value.


I agree it could offer real value even if it isn't a viable investment asset.

I was thinking from the perspective of whether it's worth investing in, or holding long term as a store of wealth. i.e. there's stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate... should crypto coins be added to the list?


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

The question is not just how high it can go. It's also how low can it go. Bitcoin can go to $0. It can absolutely be worthless. You are buying into a piece of a computer algorithm that requires massive and expensive infrastructure to run, and in a market (cryptocurrencies) that has zero scarcity as it is infinitely reproducible, and could also be undone by a technological change that produces a superior version, or widespread adoption of a central bank sponsored crypto currency. The libertarian dream of non-government controlled currency is pretty much that..a dream. Would sell everything I had in Bitcoin, if I had any. There is no greater fool coming to pay you $50,000 a coin, or more, according to some predictions.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

james4beach said:


> Zooming in on the Feb & March crash. In each chart, the black line is the S&P 500 and the purple line is the other asset. The scale measures % decline since Feb 1.
> 
> The ideal, distinct asset class should behave differently than stocks during a crash. My takeaway from this is that gold & bonds performed their traditional diversification duties, whereas Bitcoin did not demonstrate such a thing.


I was surprised that crypto followed stocks in Feb/March as were many. Crypto is now being traded on margin and smart contracts. The main explanation is it suffered a liquidity crisis the same as equities when lenders had to recall their loans.



doctrine said:


> You are buying into a piece of a computer algorithm that requires massive and expensive infrastructure to run, and in a market (cryptocurrencies) that has zero scarcity as it is infinitely reproducible, and could also be undone by a technological change that produces a superior version, or widespread adoption of a central bank sponsored crypto currency.


Different cypto assets have different designs. Bitcoin is indeed very expensive and slow but it is not infinitely reproducible. Its entire design is to be a finite asset. Its purpose is to be a store of value. I'm not really interested in holding something like this myself but there is clearly a demand for such an asset (not everyone lives in a country with stable fiat etc)

There are many technological advancements in other crypto currencies but they serve entirely different purposes. The second largest one Ethereum is far more advanced like a global decentralized computer. It is now considered the "wall street of crypto" and has so much demand the network has maxed out until Ethereum 2.0 becomes reality potentially in a few years

To give you an idea decentralized finance has gone from about $500M pre-pandemic to over $10B in a few months. These are not kids on robinhood as the fees are not realistic without at least 5 figures if not 6 figure transactions due to the network fees from the demand. The development and adoption is from large institutions you are probably familiar with..



doctrine said:


> The libertarian dream of non-government controlled currency is pretty much that..a dream. Would sell everything I had in Bitcoin, if I had any. There is no greater fool coming to pay you $50,000 a coin, or more, according to some predictions.


Governments will have to be involved. Many have already embraced it in Europe and Asia. You can pay your Swiss taxes in BTC or ETH already. USA is far ahead of Canada even though their strength relies on printing the petrol dollar. I don't know why Canada has its head in the sand. This will be like ignoring the internet in the coming decades.


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## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

doctrine said:


> The question is not just how high it can go. It's also how low can it go. Bitcoin can go to $0. It can absolutely be worthless. You are buying into a piece of a computer algorithm that requires massive and expensive infrastructure to run, and in a market (cryptocurrencies) that has zero scarcity as it is infinitely reproducible, and could also be undone by a technological change that produces a superior version, or widespread adoption of a central bank sponsored crypto currency. The libertarian dream of non-government controlled currency is pretty much that..a dream. Would sell everything I had in Bitcoin, if I had any. There is no greater fool coming to pay you $50,000 a coin, or more, according to some predictions.


As I'm sure you know, any currency can go to $0... none have intrinsic value, except for physical coins, in which case the value is in the metal itself. The only other exception is for rare coins and bank notes that have "collector value" (subjectively speaking).

What's so special about 50K? Most people said Bitcoin would never reach $1K or $10K, let alone $20K... so, I just don't see the big deal about $50K (or $100K for that matter). These thresholds are purely psychological. Forget about what seems to "make sense"... if stocks often don't make sense even though they are supposed to, so then why would Bitcoin?. If you said $1 million, I might agree it would be a stretch... but if Bitcoin is still around in 10, 20, or 50 years I don't see why it couldn't happen.

Of course, most people will be dealing with far less than a whole Bitcoin. The market still moves whether people buy a whole coin, .001 of a coin, or whatever. Owning an entire coin will be for the wealthy, those who are moving large amounts of money, or those who want to brag about it. How many people own BRK.A shares?

Anyway, I think m3s covered the other points in detail.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I think you are both missing my point on Bitcoin not really having scarcity value. Yes, Bitcoin is obviously fixed in size and there are only so many of them and they have some practical uses here and there. My point is that anyone at any time can and has proven thousands of times over that you can simply create more crypto-currencies. There is no limit. It's just a risk. There are others. I'm not so sure Bitcoin protects you in disaster scenarios when the bombs start flying or some other stuff when IT infrastructure itself could be under attack; the type of doomsday scenarios that gold would be more useful. I just don't see the point. I also don't see random people borrowing money to buy Bitcoin like I did in 2017 and 2018 when the hype was real. Half of my workplace was running bitcoin miners in their basements. I seriously doubt there will be a real second Bitcoin bubble. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think it will take irrational behaviour to get there, and I really don't see irrational behaviour occuring just a few years after it just happened in 2017-2018.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

I actually think a fixed number of bitcoins is a problem. 
Lets assume any burn rate you want, but eventually there won't be enough bitcoin available to remain liquid.
I think the idea of 1-2% annual increase is a good long term strategy.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

nathan79 said:


> What's so special about 50K? Most people said Bitcoin would never reach $1K or $10K, let alone $20K... so, I just don't see the big deal about $50K (or $100K for that matter). These thresholds are purely psychological. Forget about what seems to "make sense"...


Why does it even matter what a BTC is worth in USD? If BTC is finite while USD is being reproduced at unprecedented rate, maybe it would be wiser to track the USD in terms of BTC (or Bits, Satoshis, mBTC if you want an easier number for psychological reasons)



doctrine said:


> I think you are both missing my point on Bitcoin not really having scarcity value. Yes, Bitcoin is obviously fixed in size and there are only so many of them and they have some practical uses here and there. My point is that anyone at any time can and has proven thousands of times over that you can simply create more crypto-currencies.


By this logic USD is at risk because Canadian Tire prints Canadian Tire money? People value USD at BTC for similar reason. Besides scarcity there is liquidity and global recognition. Ethereum is designed so that anyone can create ERC tokens for whatever insignificant reason you want. The idea is not at all for there to be a single token or currency



doctrine said:


> I'm not so sure Bitcoin protects you in disaster scenarios when the bombs start flying or some other stuff when IT infrastructure itself could be under attack; the type of doomsday scenarios that gold would be more useful. I just don't see the point.


By this logic there is no point to email because it will fail during a doomsday scenario. I agree guns/ammo would become a better currency without rule of law. However you should look at recent economic collapses such a Lebanon where people's entire life savings just disappeared. Cryptocurrency very much has a point in such countries.



doctrine said:


> I also don't see random people borrowing money to buy Bitcoin like I did in 2017 and 2018 when the hype was real. Half of my workplace was running bitcoin miners in their basements. I seriously doubt there will be a real second Bitcoin bubble.


Anyone who is knowledgeable on crypto seems to agree that the wild speculation is just that. Do you think that tech stocks are useless based on the .com bust of early 2000's? The internet still took a decade to really develop and that's where I see DeFi and digital assets at this time


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