# gold/silver?



## rinoscar (Jan 26, 2010)

Hello,

I am pretty well invested all over the world with etf's. I am now looking to expose my portfolio in gold and or silver, anyone have a good etf or maybe a mutual fund that are heavily exposed in both those metals?

Thank you


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

The silver party is over, I wouldn't be interested in it until it drops to at least $30. Best way to play gold is with CGL, tracks the price of gold hedged to the Canadian dollar.


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## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

Argonaut said:


> The silver party is over, I wouldn't be interested in it until it drops to at least $30. Best way to play gold is with CGL, tracks the price of gold hedged to the Canadian dollar.


The party is over for now. A fire started in party house, most of us got out on time. I do have some burns, but I'm OK now. The house is still on fire, and I'm afraid some people are still inside.

Seriously, good advice from Argonaut. Wait until silver is at around $30, and then buy.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

CEF 50/50 gold/silver and is currently trading at >6% discount to NAV.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Personally I will not be touching silver and gold at least until the end of QE, I want to see how it will affect US dollar, if it strengthens then silver and gold will fall hard.

Not an etf or mutual fund, but IMO Goldcorp is a good alternative to play both since it's also biggest silver producer, and it pays monthly dividend.


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## calrest (Apr 13, 2011)

I agree great remark! 


$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> CEF 50/50 gold/silver and is currently trading at >6% discount to NAV.


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## rinoscar (Jan 26, 2010)

Of course I am not going to buy now 

Goldcorp, I wasn't looking to buy into a company, but will look into it. 

I forgot to mention that I am a buy and hold inverstor, so I'm looking to hold for a long time.


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## rinoscar (Jan 26, 2010)

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> CEF 50/50 gold/silver and is currently trading at >6% discount to NAV.



Dumb question....Is it wise to buy in US $$?


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## ArmchairHero (Apr 4, 2011)

Sprott Physical Silver/Gold Trust is another one you might want to consider that is at least backed by silver/gold and not imaginary silver/gold.

However, you should consider buying physical is much better than PAPER silver/gold, and just hold it for long, sleep soundly at night and not have to worry about what the paper market is doing.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

rinoscar said:


> Goldcorp, I wasn't looking to buy into a company, but will look into it.
> 
> I forgot to mention that I am a buy and hold inverstor, so I'm looking to hold for a long time.


Then Goldcorp may not be your best option, I consider this more of a trader's stock, I am also not so convinced any of commodities are long term holds like some banks, utilities and such, I think commodity stocks are much more cyclical.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Isn't it funny how silver had that big reverse day last week when it touched $50.00 in overnight trading and the the following week we have the Bin Laden news. Like Argonaut I was all over the bubble thing in the other thread and was waiting for a big push and reverse like we saw.

We will see silver most likely trade down to the low 30's or even high 20's and then have another push to $50.00. That will likely hold bounce down and then finally push through late in the year and then rocket higher again. All bets will be off however if the Fed decides to harden, things in Europe get dicey and there are terrorist attacks again.


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## rinoscar (Jan 26, 2010)

ArmchairHero said:


> Sprott Physical Silver/Gold Trust is another one you might want to consider that is at least backed by silver/gold and not imaginary silver/gold.
> 
> However, you should consider buying physical is much better than PAPER silver/gold, and just hold it for long, sleep soundly at night and not have to worry about what the paper market is doing.


I would love to buy the actual physical metals, but the cash that I have to invest in them is in my rsp.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

dogcom said:


> Isn't it funny how silver had that big reverse day last week when it touched $50.00 in overnight trading and the the following week we have the Bin Laden news. Like Argonaut I was all over the bubble thing in the other thread and was waiting for a big push and reverse like we saw.
> 
> We will see silver most likely trade down to the low 30's or even high 20's and then have another push to $50.00. That will likely hold bounce down and then finally push through late in the year and then rocket higher again. All bets will be off however if the Fed decides to harden, things in Europe get dicey and there are terrorist attacks again.


I haven't seen it much here, but elsewhere on the internet there are a lot of silver pumpers. And a lot of people coming to the party too late.. the everyday folk that are left holding the bag. Eric Sprott managed to sell a lot of silver at exactly the right time. Hmm.

Silver isn't a stock that can gain earnings momentum.. an ounce of silver is an ounce of silver. That's why I like it twice as much at $20 than I do at $40. When everybody starts talking about it and the price is parabolic it's time to get out!


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

And like ddkay pointed out in another thread, Sprott reinvested every dollar into silver equities.


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## ArmchairHero (Apr 4, 2011)

There's nothing wrong with silver, REAL physical silver that is. They are being hoarded left and right by governments and the average joe public especially in the US for all the obvious economic reasons. The "price" of silver you see that is tanking IMO reflects the value of paper silver, which is fake. The FED, JPM, Comex and others in on their little short selling ponzi scheme had to do something about the "price" of silver, since their worse nightmare is for it to skyrocket without doing something. CME, MF global and others have increased margin requirements multiple times and will probably continue to do so... all this indicates the mess that the US is in and the typical parties and institutions behind these manipulative and illegal acts. 

Anyhoo, would not surprise if paper silver continues to tank, which would mean it's a great time to go shopping for slightly lower physical. And once this game is up...... 

just my 2 cents


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## rinoscar (Jan 26, 2010)

What I am hearing here is that silver/gold is NOT a long term hold 5+ years but rather in and out and try to stay out of that burning house


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

rinoscar said:


> What I am hearing here is that silver/gold is NOT a long term hold 5+ years but rather in and out and try to stay out of that burning house


You are hearing that about silver, not gold. Gold is a long term hold. You could hold it for 3000 years. If you're in it to make profit, silver has to be traded because it is more volatile. Personally, I trade silver to increase my gold position.


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## rinoscar (Jan 26, 2010)

What to do, what to do...!!!

I just read somewhere that the price of silver to gold is usually at a 1/16 ratio, don't know if it is true, but if it is silver could be well over 50$


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I hope no one is surprised that silver is correcting hard. Nothing moves parabolically like that and doesn't correct. Maybe this is just a breather in silver prices. I'm leery about investing in this market because it is illiquid and has a history of market manipulation.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

rinoscar said:


> I just read somewhere that the price of silver to gold is usually at a 1/16 ratio, don't know if it is true, but if it is silver could be well over 50$


Depends what you mean by "usually". In the past 100 years that certainly hasn't been the case. I believe silver is worth 1/50 of gold and trade accordingly.


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## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

Argonaut said:


> If you're in it to make profit, silver has to be traded because it is more volatile.


That's something I wished I had known.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Wow silver is falling to the $30-35 range way faster than I thought


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

AGQ:US Proshares 2x Silver ETF went from $382 to $202 in a ONE WEEK PERIOD


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## rinoscar (Jan 26, 2010)

Here is a good read from John Embry:

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2011/MPLID_032511_pg085Emb.pdf


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

The gold:silver ratio is powering its way higher as the metals drop. I will be aggressively buying silver if and when the ratio hits 65:1.


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## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

I wish someone could regulate the trading of these commodities in such a way that speculation could be greatly reduced. 

What the hell?? Silver down 25% in 1 week?

Oil down $10 in 1 day????


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Speculators (like all of us) should know the risks. If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

davext said:


> I wish someone could regulate the trading of these commodities in such a way that speculation could be greatly reduced.
> 
> What the hell??


Stockmarket is just like online casino and "big" guys will always have advantage over "small" ones....


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## THE_UNIT (Feb 25, 2011)

What does everyone think about investing in gold, silver and copper to protect from inflation? I've heard that this would be the best thing to do to protect yourself.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

THE_UNIT said:


> What does everyone think about investing in gold, silver and copper to protect from inflation? I've heard that this would be the best thing to do to protect yourself.


in theory it's apply to all commodities, but in practice .....


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## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

THE_UNIT said:


> What does everyone think about investing in gold, silver and copper to protect from inflation? I've heard that this would be the best thing to do to protect yourself.


good morning, Mr. Rip van Winkle


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## THE_UNIT (Feb 25, 2011)

SixesAndSevens said:


> good morning, Mr. Rip van Winkle


I dont get it?


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

You don't get it ...... there's blood on the commodity floors right now, come back next month .....


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## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

webber22 said:


> You don't get it ...... there's blood on the commodity floors right now, come back next month .....


I've seen a lot of pessimism on the silver discuss boards. But this afternoon, there seems to be a bit more optimism. Some people think the worst is behind us, and the silver price will shoot right back up to $40 and plus. Yeah, right.


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## ArmchairHero (Apr 4, 2011)

Fundamentals are out the door when there is blatant manipulation by TPTB when they can do whatever they want... as "prices" keep falling, it'll be cheaper to hoard more PHYSICAL Silver and Gold.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Anyone buying Silver?


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

Not directly no, but I'm poking around at SLV options and examining a few different positions I might take.

BTW - this latest pullback in silver was not triggered by manipulation, it was triggered as the futures exchanges and brokers raised margin requirements following silver's parabolic rise. It rose so far so fast that risk levels were out of control, so the margin requirements were raised - and with everybody and their dog long silver..... The interesting twist is SLV - massive volume uptick in SLV as the silver commodity futures margin requirements went up as the commodity traders moved to the SLV ETF instead - and then as the 3-5 day period for margin calls moved through the system silver rolls over. Smart traders were well positioned and waiting for this correction. Look at the chart for SLV - a parabolic move like that doesn't last forever.

Footnote: we turned at the 50 mark where the Hunt Brother's corner was ended... by changing the margin requirements to force the Hunts to sell. Different situation - same trigger.


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## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

I see people who begged to get out of the market, claim silver will bottom to $20, and that they will never be fooled again just a few days ago are not regretting because there was a $1 up-move today. I guess they see the price rocketing to $100 by summer.


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## Mockingbird (Apr 29, 2009)

Lephturn said:


> BTW - this latest pullback in silver was not triggered by manipulation, it was triggered as the futures exchanges and brokers raised margin requirements...


You got it. 
Also, the volatility has been great for the traders.

MB


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## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

They're raising the margin on Monday. Give me a prediction on the next price at the opening on Monday morning.


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## Mockingbird (Apr 29, 2009)

Not sure who is "they", but CME increased their silver margin requirements last Tuesday. 

MB


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Would the CME kill gold with margin hikes? I'm beginning to think PMs may not be the best flight to safety either. If all transactions are based upon spot and the exchanges have control of spot but dont exercise it responsibly, you get what happened to silver in 1980 and what happend to silver and crude oil this week.

CME should have gradually increased margin requirements based on a fixed rate. But they were sleeping, and all of a sudden you get 5 increases in 8 days when the futures price is consolidating which is ridiculous. Inevitably a lot of leveraged participants had to unwind by dumping their position and cover.

What alternatives are there? US T-bills? Space rocks?


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## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

Can't wait to see the kind of Sunday for silver. The last two were incredible. I just sold my silver on Thursday. The day after, the price went up by $1. Pff!!


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I wonder when the margin requirements will be 100% of silvers value. Then we wouldn't see crazy volatility like this.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

_" I'm beginning to think PMs may not be the best flight to safety either."_

ddkay did you not only a week or 2 ago post several messages about your research into purchase of physical PM, culminating with a buy of an actual silver bar or bars ...

i didn't say anything. You have also posted that you are only 21, meanwhile demonstrating an extraordinary sense for value & quality in financial markets, especially in the broad tech sector, that many don't have even at the age of 45.

but i did believe your silver purchase was perhaps not quite wise. Storage, for example, is always going to be a problem, to say nothing of insurance against theft or fire. And even the same dealer, and even if his ingot is marked with the assay, is going to have a considerable spread between his buy & sell prices should you seek to sell your treasure when silver returns to $50 per ounce.

here's where your age will come to the rescue. One respected forum member has recently told us about her silver coins, bought during the hunt brothers silver spike of 1980 & long forgotten at the back of a cupboard shelf. Alas, she recently also decided to keep rather than sell them ... but you probably will not have anything like the same 30 years to wait. The next long upcycle in gold & silver will not take nearly as long to wallow & trough at the bottom, imho.

perhaps, at 21, you're not married yet. So all can keep their fingers crossed that your silver treasure will rise in value enough to help pay for your wedding, at least in part.

in the meantime, what's the best alternative to a sock drawer loaded with silver ingots ? it's that nifty little head you've got on your shoulders.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I want to keep some exposure to physical PMs, in terms of timing this was definitely not my wisest purchase. I bought 1 kilo (1 bar) of silver and an ounce of gold while the market was too heated (after a parabolic run up & the same hour Bernanke delivered his presser). So far I see about a ~$500 loss between the two. I think silver will balance out around here over the next few months, if not I'll trade it in for a smaller quantity, take the cash difference and put it towards gold. Storage is also an issue, but I'm not keeping these in my sock drawer lol. For now I have one of those free small safety deposit boxes that come with the TD select chequings accounts. But I do realize in worst case scenario these aren't the most secure lol.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

You may enjoy this newsletter that someone recommended to me for a read. It explores some modern physics and mathematics, also human behavioral and natural models, and plays them into market dynamics and crash scenarios. They wrote it in anticipation of a major mini-crash in silver. Note it was published the end of April. Pretty heavy going but does make you realize that commodity trading is not for dummies.

Trading in silver futures


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Thanks kcowen I'm half way through this and there is a lot of useful explanation and analysis in here. Is the newsletter free? I wouldn't mind subscribing to more issues.

Edit: It is! http://www.hindecapital.com/reports


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## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

ddkay said:


> CME should have gradually increased margin requirements based on a fixed rate. But they were sleeping, and all of a sudden you get 5 increases in 8 days when the futures price is consolidating which is ridiculous. Inevitably a lot of leveraged participants had to unwind by dumping their position and cover.


Why doesn't the government come in and hold their feet to the fire? I agree that CME needed to adjust the margin requirements but seriously.. it's always the individual investors that get burned. 

Now they're raising the margins for oil, couldn't they have done that sooner to break the backs of speculators? This is probably more effective than the Saudis pumping more oil, at least for WTI prices right?


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I mistakenly stated the price was consolidating but did in fact increase significantly during those 8 days and was volatile enough to warrant margin increases I just think it would have been applied more appropriately (i.e. less direct effect on commodity price) over a wider time spread

Here's what CME had to say 


> Anyone who was long silver over this recent rally, whereby the price more than doubled since September 2010, had a great deal of open equity in their position. Whether this open equity was sufficient to meet the higher margins all by itself depended on the individual position.
> 
> The real effect may have come from those who were short and on the wrong side of the market. Not only had they been meeting margin calls at the lower rates, they now had to confront an even higher cost to maintain their positions. The prospect of a last burst of short-covering leading to a final “blow-off top” may have encouraged the long positions to sell.


http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/PM167-silver_margin-of-safety.pdf


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Obama did say he would go after "oil speculators", it was a matter of time. The world can't run on expensive oil, all calamity will ensue once we hit 'peak oil' if we haven't already. Are the protests I see in MENA not because of people living near or below the poverty line and suffering first from commodity inflation?


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## v_tofu (Apr 16, 2009)

Buy physical silver!! crash JPMORGAN! The fiat currency is coming to an end!!



oops sorry, wrong forum.


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