# APV - Arise Technologies



## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Been watching this stock for almost a year.

Watched it go from 0.16 to 0.41, now seeing it here at around 0.05.

Solar panels and such. What do you folks think?

Company is still not really profitable, but thinking longer-term, say 5 years?

Is this company worth $0.50 in the future?


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Ah yeah this Waterloo company. I accidentally went into their conference call a few months ago when I meant to call Sino-Forest lol.

PVs are semis, market prices across the supply chain change quickly and if demand doesn't keep up inventory write-downs are common in this sector. I haven't looked at Arise's fundamentals but it can't be that different from anything else out there. There are literally thousands of exchange-listed and unlisted solar companies out there. Some use outdated technologies and others are still in the startup stage heavily invested in HCPV R&D.

I really want to buy solar but all the pure solar stocks are getting chewed up. If you can figure out which company is going to be around 30 years from now it would be a true buy and hold. I think if these smaller players are worth their salt they'll get bought up by the likes of GE etc, so if you know the solar sector like the back of your hand there's a good chance you can do well investing here.

If you just want in for a trade though take a look at FSLR, that's on the verge of breaking out or breaking down in the next few days.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Example of a Toronto solar startup not listed on the TSX with $28.2 million in private investment and $10.3 million in US/Canadian government subsidies: http://www.morgansolar.com/2011/08/...ncentration-optical-waveguide-technology.html


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Solar technology is a loser financially and requires subsidy to stay afloat. In the coming tightening of government spending, this is not somewhere where I want to be. Didn't Google invest in wind technology too? I mean, what on earth are they thinking.


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## Potato (Apr 3, 2009)

I haven't done any research on Arise in particular, and only a little on the solar sector in general, but my impression is that the sector has a fairly large over-supply after years of really aggressive expansion by a number of producers. So before investing I'd ask who the low-cost producer is and how Arise's costs compare, and what their debt situation is. 

For Arise (and other Canadian solar companies) another issue is that even though the Ontario FIT program is really lucrative and gives them an edge with the local content rules, the OEB has been dropping the ball on getting projects approved, so that could be another factor to consider.


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## Dmoney (Apr 28, 2011)

Argonaut said:


> Solar technology is a loser financially and requires subsidy to stay afloat. In the coming tightening of government spending, this is not somewhere where I want to be. Didn't Google invest in wind technology too? I mean, what on earth are they thinking.


Wind is financially viable, solar is complete financial suicide. Variable costs are effectively nil, but levelized costs are astronomical (3-4x cheaper alternatives).The only problem with wind is effectively scaling it. One windmill won't power anything.

The other issue with solar is the massive amount of energy/material required to make the actual panels. Nowhere near as environmentally friendly or efficient as claimed by environmentalists.


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