# Santa Claus Rally?



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Since I lack the resources and skills necessary to pick individual stocks, I have defaulted to a portfolio of broad-based ETF's which have not exactly been performing up to my expectations so far this year.

With very little of the year left, and with the fiscal cliff discussions ongoing and Europe mired in a major recession and Chinese growth slowing, my question now is do you expect there to be a Santa Claus rally this year and, if so, how big a one?

It's my last hope!!:dispirited::confused2:

Also, how optimistic are you for the markets in 2013?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Belguy 
From about Nove 19 to about the the Jan 3 the odds of price vibrating higher have historicaly been higher then normal. I would have to run the numbers to know the precise percentages & odds.

I am looking forward to 2013, I think the odds are high that the parameters will be in place for me to short an historic top.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I think that we experienced a bit of a Thanksgiving turkey rally today.

While contemplating the state of affairs today, I got to wondering if anyone ever spend time on their death bed wishing that they had bought more iShares when they had the chance????

It's strange how the mind works when you get older.:rolleyes-new::bi_polo::very_drunk:


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I have had a lot of success investing in the summer and fall, and seeing those purchases rise throughout the winter and the spring. Everything seems to be on sale. I'm pretty much positioned now for the next 6 months. Let's see how it goes.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I just stay fully invested all of the time which might account for why I am not rich!!:crushed::blue::confusion::sorrow:


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

Belguy said:


> I just stay fully invested all of the time which might account for why I am not rich!!:crushed::blue::confusion::sorrow:


What was your strategy before couch potato?


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## Snuff_the_Rooster (Oct 26, 2012)

Belguy said:


> I just stay fully invested all of the time which might account for why I am not rich!!:crushed::blue::confusion::sorrow:


Assuming you believe this, then what are you doing about it?


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Re: topic. As a floor trader said once last November, You gotta believe!


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

Belguy said:


> I just stay fully invested all of the time which might account for why I am not rich!!:crushed::blue::confusion::sorrow:


according to several posts here u have a 6 figures acct , u are retired and u say u are not rich.
wow.
may G'd forgive you for what u are saying.


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## thenegotiator (May 23, 2012)

ddkay said:


> Re: topic. As a floor trader said once last November, You gotta believe!


I believe:rolleyes2:


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

jcgd said:


> What was your strategy before couch potato?


Before my DIY days utilizing the Couch Potato as my core investments, my old financial services salesperson had me in a number of high fee, mostly lower performing managed mutual funds which he traded in and out of. I was getting poorer and taking the bus while he was driving a new Lexus every year!!:frown::upset::frown-new::grumpy:.


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## Doug2000 (Apr 6, 2011)

Belguy said:


> Before my DIY days utilizing the Couch Potato as my core investments, my old financial services salesperson had me in a number of high fee, mostly lower performing managed mutual funds which he traded in and out of. I was getting poorer and taking the bus while he was driving a new Lexus every year!!:frown::upset::frown-new:


Oh my god, that story sounds familiar.

Now at 40, I'm sure I have less money in my RRSP than I put in. I went into 2008 invested in HIGH QUALITY MUTUAL FUNDS FULL OF AMERICAN BANKS 

Now I'm all about a dividend couch potatoe portfolio, with some riskier high dividend stocks.

I recently found out 69% of all stock returns actually come from dividends.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I am sure that the story is very familiar to many investors out there who turn their investment decision making over to financial services salespersons who then proceed to put their own interests first by investing their clients' money in either lower performing in-house mutual funds or funds from outside suppliers that charge high fees for inferior results.

Nobody cares as much about YOUR money as you should!!


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Santa Claus rally seems likely and it seems to be going that way at this time. With stocks down and the fiscal cliff looking like it will be fixed, I would say it should go higher, even with the stock loss selling pressure. Smaller companies however are still troubled with the tax loss selling and should be good buys in December.


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

Belguy said:


> Since I lack the resources and skills necessary to pick individual stocks, I have defaulted to a portfolio of broad-based ETF's which have not exactly been performing up to my expectations so far this year.
> 
> With very little of the year left, and with the fiscal cliff discussions ongoing and Europe mired in a major recession and Chinese growth slowing, my question now is do you expect there to be a Santa Claus rally this year and, if so, how big a one?
> 
> ...


What do you mean your "last hope"? The S&P is up 20% on the year? Is that somehow not good enough? OK the TSX Comp is only up 5% but still...

Price Performance:........Today.........5 Day.......1 Month.....6 Month.....One Year
TSX Comp..................+0.40%.......+2.73%......-0.20%......+5.40%......+5.44% 
DJIA..........................+0.89%.......+2.88%......-1.16%......+3.98%......+15.04% 
S&P 500....................+0.87%.......+3.18%.......-0.70%......+6.48%......+20.77% 
NASDAQ....................+1.04%.......+3.63%.......-1.12%......+3.74%......+20.19% 

I'm not sure how many 20% up years in a row you are expecting, but it's not like we need any year-end rally to have a good year.

Not like it matters to you right? Since you are a couch potato and all....


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I am looking at today's newspaper that shows that the S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 1.66% YTD as of yesterday's close. This hardly something to get euphoric about!

The S&P 500 Index was up 10.61% YTD as of closing yesterday. I am not unhappy about that result but am just hoping for some solution to the fiscal cliff before this result starts to erode.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Probably Lepthurn included dividends in TSX return? 
I think bonds performed worse and Belguy reallocated equites to bonds....


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## Barwelle (Feb 23, 2011)

gibor said:


> Probably Lepthurn included dividends in TSX return?


lephturn is looking at 1-year returns whereas Belguy is looking at YTD returns. (no dividends in either numbers)

Just goes to show that data is easily manipulated!


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

gibor said:


> Probably Lepthurn included dividends in TSX return?
> I think bonds performed worse and Belguy reallocated equites to bonds....


Actually, I maintained my target 40 per cent bond allocation but reduced my equity allocation from 60 per cent to 50 per cent and established a 10 per cent cash (HISA) allocation because of my advancing age and the desire to decrease portfolio volatility in my senior years.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Barwelle said:


> lephturn is looking at 1-year returns whereas Belguy is looking at YTD returns. (no dividends in either numbers)
> 
> Just goes to show that data is easily manipulated!



I fully realize that a snapshot in time is just that. A sudden swing in the direction of the markets can significantly change the resulting picture especially as it relates to short term results.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Don't let this guy steal Christmas!


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## Doug2000 (Apr 6, 2011)

I have a substantial cash position, (plan transfer), not sure if I should start to buy at these levels, buying into XDV, ZDV, and some higher yeilders.

Thoughts, or wait into December, Tax Loss Selling???


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Is anyone else getting a good Santa Claus rally? I'm up 2.3% just this week..probably another 2.3% from the previous three so a nice 4-5% gain since mid-Nov. There seems to be a bit of a small cap and financials feel to this increase. My biggest increase over this period is XTC which is up a nice +30% and most Cdn banks seem up as well - BNS up 10% since Nov 16th or so.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Don't get ahead of yourself. The fiscal cliff looms!!:hopelessness::cower::eek2::sour:


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I am enjoying this rally, so long as Bellguy doesn't ginx it. 

Let's see if this holds. I want some great year end numbers.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

What Jungle said. If the optimism keeps up I'm going to close 2012 with my first ever triple digit % yearly return. So much magic is happening in small caps.


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## phrenk (Mar 14, 2011)

Republicans couldn't dish out the votes for Plan B. Futures down sharply. Timber!


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

phrenk said:


> Republicans couldn't dish out the votes for Plan B. Futures down sharply. Timber!


Oh Mayan! :tongue-new:


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

S&P futures down 20 points now. BELLGUY!!!!!!! lol


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i'm confused ..... who do we blame tomorrows bloodbath on .... belguy or the mayans ?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Blame the GOP! And Greece!

(The Mayans were pretty capable but they really screwed up forecasting the future. Lost a lot of stuff to the Spaniards.)


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

TSX is still barely in the green this morning, in a sea of red, maybe it's not the end of the world after all, knock on wood, or are we just outside the vortex for the moment?


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Some Santa Claus rally!!

The Dow has dropped some 252 points over the past few trading days and December is usually a good month for stocks!

Thank the U.S. politicians!! Bah, humbug!!!:crushed::bi_polo::nightmare::mad2:


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Belguy said:


> Some Santa Claus rally!!


We did rally until the final days before Christmas, I took the Dec 21 overnight flashcrash in the e-mini's as a signal to lighten up or exit.. I chose to exit. See you in 2013.


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

was there a santa claus rally in 2013?

are we going to have one this year ?


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

The Nasdaq seasonal trade is holding up so far


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

AMABILE said:


> was there a santa claus rally in 2013?


Yes. From Dec 15-31, 2013, the S&P00 was up around 4%.



AMABILE said:


> are we going to have one this year ?


I hope so.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Personally, I would like to see things lower until Jan. 1!


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Yeah, I don't need any money withdrawn anytime soon, a lower market in January and Feb, means my TFSA and RRSP get more shares....


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Cal said:


> Yeah, I don't need any money withdrawn anytime soon, a lower market in January and Feb, means my TFSA and RRSP get more shares....


+1


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## etfstrader (Sep 26, 2014)

Santa Claus rally only implies to the last week of 'trading' before new year (as shown in green vertical bar from below chart). Unlike 2012 & 2013, we saw a big drop after Santa Claus rally for 2014.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Santa gave coal to the tsx this year.


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## OurBigFatWallet (Jan 20, 2014)

Jungle said:


> Santa gave coal to the tsx this year.


Too funny. My guess is that things will pick up (temporarily) in January when everyone has their TFSA cash to spend and the tax loss selling has ended


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

Seasonal trading trends are rubbish. Fundamentals always override technicals.

For example, this period of time is supposed strong for energy stocks according to TA. So much for that.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I still believe in Santa. I think our rally starts Dec 24.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

...after tax loss selling has completed.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Interesting reading...
This Signal Has Perfect Record Of Forecasting Year-End Gains. So far 100%


> Since its inception in 1986, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has traded more than 34% above it 1-month low on 52 separate days in December. From the close of each day through the end of the year, the S&P 500 has been positive following all 52 days (this obviously excludes occasions that occurred on the final day of a year).
> 
> At the high of the day yesterday (December 9), the VIX was 41% above its 1-month low, set on Friday. Therefore, if the historical pattern is to hold true again, the S&P 500 should close the year above yesterday’s close of 2059.82.


http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/104856245410/this-signal-has-perfect-record-of-forecasting


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

do you believe that it started to-day ?


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

8 more sleeps


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

AMABILE said:


> do you believe that it started to-day ?


No because I want to buy suncor under $25 again, lol


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

is it here now ?


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Yes because I didn't buy anything.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Not sure about Santa rally, but today is 1st day of Hanukkah and we got Hanukkah rally


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

gibor said:


> Not sure about Santa rally, but today is 1st day of Hanukkah and we got Hanukkah rally


DJIA up over 400 points in one day!

For those who believed in Santa / Hanukkah rally, good for you! Well done. There are just a few trading days left for 2014.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Since 1896, 38.4% of the Dow's annual gain has come on a 16-day run between December 22 and January 6.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

gibor said:


> Not sure about *Santa rally,* but today is 1st day of Hanukkah and we got *Hanukkah rally*


Yesterday's DOW was the biggest gain since Nov.2011. No wonder then, it was a double rally, or triple if you add the Fed to both holidays. each:

Interesting GoldStone.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Looks like Santa is also interested in oil, good run up today ... so far anyways.


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

are we having one NOW?? ( SANTA CLAUS RALLY )


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