# Taper Time is Here



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Today the Fed will announce its taper, taper talk or both. I for one think if they taper it will just be 10 or 15 billion and only for a short time as the bond market will still need its fix. If they do seriously taper the stock and bond market will crash and I don't think they will put up with that for a very long time. 

This is going to be a very tricky B.S. job the Fed will have to pull and it will be very interesting how they will handle it today and over the next few months. Even with the mainstream media in their pocket they will not be able to ignore higher interest rates and no one buying the debt for very long.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

listening to bloomberg and there is a lot of excitement and anticipation in the air
the market can go either way

often what happens on the day of the fed announcement is corrected the next day

it's a great day for gamblers and day traders who have a hunch


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Perhaps not just yet....

(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it would continue buying bonds at an $85 billion monthly pace for now, surprising financial markets that were braced for a reduction in the central bank's economic stimulus


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

look at everything fly :> this all time high level scares me, maybe i'll short something to hedge myself


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

fatcat said:


> it's a great day for gamblers and day traders who have a hunch


Indeed! :wink:

I jumped-in at 1:26 p.m. for nothing but gold.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> Indeed! :wink:
> 
> I jumped-in at 1:26 p.m. for nothing but gold.


Homerun, good for you ;-)


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

somehow in the tfsa i had managed to sell 1100 aoi & buy 366 shares of goldcorp 2 days ago. This had been looking unbelievably stupid until just now


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

As usual on days like this, I'm regretting having so much cash sitting there doing diddly squat.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Jon_Snow said:


> As usual on days like this, I'm regretting having so much cash sitting there doing diddly squat.


It really could have gone either way. Pesonally I'm happy to hang onto some extra cash right now - no regrets. There will be more opportunities to put the cash to work in the near future. I'm happy with the gains today and I'm happy I kept some cash on sidelines just in case...


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## Crusher (Sep 15, 2013)

Planning to sell US and buy Canadian in the mid term over worries that the eventual start of QE tapering (?) will mean the start of a US bear market.

Thoughts?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Going into October would have been incredibly dangerous to taper even if it would be just for show. We all know it is a kind of Ponzi scheme that the Fed is playing and they know that they can't really take the foot off.

On gold they pre-smashed or manipulated it in the overnight market over the last week as they have done a number of times since April so it would just play catch up instead of rising to highs not seen in awhile.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

Up about $20k today, thank you Fed buddies.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

dogcom... how is the Fed manipulating gold prices?


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## namelessone (Sep 28, 2012)

Today my portfolio is up 1.3% thanks to the fed.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Andrewf they manipulate everything but do hold a special interest in manipulating gold and silver through JP Morgan and others so we do not lose sight of the paper currencies. What they do is smash it down by selling heavily into thin overnight trading which no one would want to do unless your only interest was to drop the price. This is not new and has gone on for some time. Of course you can't pick it up on the bought out mainstream media just on sites they don't control. Of course manipulation or not even if it is criminal doesn't matter as price pays in the short term. 

You can get some of it off perma bull sites like http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html and http://www.silverdoctors.com/ but like I said they always seem to be bullish and in the manipulation camp. But even so they do come up with some stuff that is very suspicious and it does make sense. I find combining the main stream with some of this stuff does give you a little more to think about. 

I don't like to give out these links because most people don't want to hear any of it but the mainstream media is the same in the opposite direction.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i think todays rally might be short lived

this was all about housing in the usa
_the bernank_ is spooked by rising mortgages

one might assume that treasuries could have just as easily skyrocketed as plummeted if the fed had done even 10B in taper
which would have really hit housing hard

i think it is bad news and leads investors to really wonder whether there is _any_ underlying strength in the usa economy

what, the hell, all my utlities are recovering so thank _the bernank_ for that


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I think the Fed announcement was worrying. This was the best opportunity to taper ... stock market at all time highs, and bond market expected it. It would have been a free pass for the Fed to reduce bond purchases. Maybe stocks would have fallen a bit (big deal, fallen off record highs) and bonds may have shrugged it off, as it was already baked into prices.

The fact that they didn't taper shows just how weak the economy must be, certainly weaker than commonly believed. Or the Fed's forecasts are very grim. The Fed doesn't think the economy can handle any slight decrease in bond assistance. Speaks to just how bleak the picture is.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Fatcat I think your right and that is interest rates and housing trumps the stock market. Rising interest rates destroys everything for the Fed and the only thing left to do would be a even greater QE and that will probably lead us to the end of their experiment. 

James4beach stocks falling from such highs could bring us to a 1987 style event going into October so I think this is also a concern for the Fed. This would all end up with a much greater QE then what we have now, so the Fed might have thought just keep everyone happy and leave things the way they are.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

fatcat said:


> i think todays rally might be short lived
> 
> this was all about housing in the usa
> _the bernank_ is spooked by rising mortgages
> ...


I agree. At least though my ZUT went up for the first time in a LONG time, ha ha!


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Most countries in the world are trying to inflate their way out of this mess. Japan has been doing the best job and their economy has been rewarded. If not for the high energy prices they are facing due to local factors, they'd be flying even more. Inflating your way out of debt works. The US isn't going to stop though. It's a good time to own real assets.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i feel like dorothy when toto pulls back the curtain and the we see the bumbling wizard who pretends to be the great oz 

any pretence that the recent bull run is anything but fed fueled is now seen to be empty

i think buyers remorse is likely to settle in here soon

and i think we will finally get a much needed correction


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Well of course it's a Fed-fueled rally... BMO even made a nice chart of it


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The signal has been sent. The US economy is so weak, that Bernanke can't take his foot of the pedal........even a little.

There is nothing the Fed can do now, but continue with QE..........increasing the amounts as it becomes less and less effective.

Maybe it is why Larry Summer decided he didn't want to be sitting in the Fed chair when it all comes crashing down.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Summers wanted the job but resigned when it was obvious he was doomed.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

fatcat said:


> i think buyers remorse is likely to settle in here soon


Nope, no make-believe for me, hence I bought only what I had wanted to sell same-day! 3 p.m. to be exact.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

A good discussion on QE, who gains from it and who loses........and what happens when it stops.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101046937


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

sags said:


> A good discussion on QE, who gains from it and who loses........and what happens when it stops.
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/101046937


the takeaway to me is 1) everybody thinks the fed has blown it and 2) markets will keep going up until one day they might go down ... maybe really far and really fast

we are all now gamblers not investors, like it or not ....


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Well of course we're all gamblers... the only problems arise when people (especially retirees) don't realize they have been gambling all this time, and somehow thought the market _owes_ them 6% perpetual returns for life. Nobody knows where stocks will go. In Japan, which also had zero interest rates by the way, stocks went down for 30 years. And they are one of the largest economies in the world.

People watching hard data will note that S&P 500 actual earnings have really not increased in over a year; in this period the market is up 25%. Probably the best illustration that the stock market rally is not driven by earnings or fundamental improvements in the economy.

Shiller P/E (or CAPE) is also sky high at 24.5, strongly suggesting below average stock market returns going forward (i.e. overvaluation)


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

James, that CAPE is for the S&P 500. So one (big) market is expensive. EAFE and EM indexes are roughly 16.5 (my estimate).


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Fatcat is so right and that is we can only gamble and not invest at this time. There are so many problems with holding anything and cash is included. One could have their cash taken by hyper inflation or by a bail in. The stock and bond market being held up by QE risks disaster if QE stops working or if QE is taken away. PM's are subject to enormous manipulation and intervention that could keep it down for years or they could just as well go to the moon if everyone realizes the debt attached to paper makes paper nearly worthless. 

One thing we know for sure is the Fed's game face is on and they are playing hard to keep all illusions going.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Not sure if I believe that gold is manipulated, unless you think they're also manipulating all commodities. Gold is moving the same as commodity prices in general.

I think that gold/commodities price declines are forecasting, for now, that there is no inflation ahead -- but rather economic and monetary contraction coming (deflation)


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am sure they are also manipulating commodities as well, but not to the extent they are gold.

1. Huge gold contract sales in the thin night market.
2. Since the first smackdown in April gold has been in Backwardation a lot.
3. GOFO ( go forward rates) have been negative many times since the spring smackdowns.
4. COMEX inventories have been dropping fast.
5. 1,300 tons of missing gold from the BOE after their annual report in March 2013.
6. Germany being told to wait 7 years for their gold.
7.Bundesbank gold being melted in Hong Kong for delivery. ( gold has been leased out to JP Morgan and others to be sold into the market with an entry that it would be returned so it can stay on the books but we know it is gone).
8. JP Morgan known manipulation of silver 5 years ago and the coming forward of 2 JP Morgan associates that say they have seen and have evidence the manipulation of gold and silver. 
9. India's quest to tax gold heavily to stop its citizens from owning it. 
10. Constant media bashing to aid the smackdowns.

The list can go on and on but there are a few of the ones that I can think of.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Germany wasn't even allowed to audit their own gold..........or even look at it.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Why does Germany need to see their gold?  Aren't they satisfied enough that it's held through a swap to a reverse repo derivative, sitting at a custodian (or sometimes sub custodian) who leases it out over-the-counter? I mean come on, don't they trust American finance?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

You are right. 

The Germans are getting pushy.

Imagine the nerve.........wanting to see their gold..........and test it to make sure it isn't gold painted tungsten.

Besides, the US won't allow their own Congressman or Senators audit the Fed or peek into Fort Knox........so why should they let the Germans rummage around.

"Security concerns"..........they claim.

Like they can't put a few extra cops out in the lobby.................lol.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I will leave the methods of manipulaton to dogcom...........but you have to wonder when:

People in India and China are paying considerably more than the spot price of gold, for physical gold.

The owner of the pawn store in Pawn Stars tv show said his biggest problem is finding gold for his store.

It is also worth noting that for a few years, there was a plethora of "cash for gold" places, but the supply of gold jewellery from consumers has pretty much dried up. 

Some amount of physical gold (bars, coins) has been reprocessed from old sources (rings, necklaces) and still demand exceeds supply.

When demand exceeds supply..........the price should not be going down, unless somebody is manipulating the price.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Thanks sags for mentioning the physical demand and lack of supply I suppose that is number 11. Backwardation, supply exceeding demand, closing mines because of low prices and the GOFO thing makes you wonder how long they can keep this up. China, Russia and others I am sure are happy with this crap because they can suck up all the gold they want discounted for them by the Fed. 

I believe we could be in for one more big push by the Fed to get it down to $1,000. Goldman Sachs put out a call for $1,000, so that maybe what the Fed gave them as the target. Since most mines can't make money at that level and all the physical demand out there then the only way I can see $1,000 is for massive manipulation to occur.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Research Affiliates published a short note about asset correlations with fed 'tapering'.

http://www.researchaffiliates.com/O...ls/Pages/C_2013_9_The-Impact-of-Tapering.aspx


The most interesting part was this chart, I think:










I know a lot of people are down about how expensive the US market is, but there are opportunities elsewhere.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I guess it all comes down to what thesis you're operating with.

Personally I think the global economy is slowing (with the US being the only one that maintains the illusion of strength, thanks to Fed's QE distortions). And thus with a slowing global economy, I'm not keen on buying China/emerging markets any more than I want to buy commodities.

On the other hand, if one believes the global economy isn't slowing down then I would agree that emerging markets could be a good buy.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

andrewf: and if someone wants to buy emerging markets, doesn't this mean that person should also be bullish on commodities too?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Warren Buffet made an interestng observation, that I hadn't heard before.

He said the Fed has become the world's largest hedge fund.

From the debt it holds, the Fed turned over 90 Billion to the US government, from payments on the debt.

I suppose it would consist of mortgage payments for the mortgage backed securities it holds.......among other things.

The US government has created an income source.......by buying securities with an endless supply of printed money.

Cool............


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

james4beach said:


> andrewf: and if someone wants to buy emerging markets, doesn't this mean that person should also be bullish on commodities too?


Isn't that a rule of thumb kind of thing? Like rising inflation means you should be bullish on gold? I think rules of thumb based on past correlations are a bit dangerous. Commodities in generally have come off quite a bit from their highs. I'm not sure that means they'll be headed higher, but maybe there is support for prices where they are now.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

sags said:


> Warren Buffet made an interestng observation, that I hadn't heard before.
> 
> He said the Fed has become the world's largest hedge fund.
> 
> ...


The Fed can borrow for 0%, and buy income securities that yield more than that. The Fed has made some big gains on falling yields, but on the other hand, when they unwind QE they will take massive losses. Net/net they'll probably come out somewhat ahead.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

for the op.... Dogcom.
been away for quite awhile but i am throwing in my 2 cents.
i exited my short on silver pre report of tapering
they tried to price 70% of the tapering.
charts were oversold by then.... would not risk my money on an oversold chart that tried to price in tapering
then surprise ... kneee jerk reaction.
and that was it ... nothing else .
no length added ....nothing .
in fact it lost all momentum exactly 1 day after because of a talking head.
bottom line dog.... I simply do not like this market whatsoever since then .
nothing to do with manipulation or whatever.
i just do not like the thin volumes .... in everything ...
i am completely on the sidelines atm ..... except for 2 stocks.
mkt trying to find direction and simply grinding lower and in commodities bulls or bears are not making any realistic move.
my bias remain to lower prices in gold and silver and now i will add copper.
the longer this mkt tries to break new highs and does not the higher the chances to go lower.
i will pick up the remnants of certain stocks.
.
i cannot trade this mkt AT all.
if one can ... welll he is Houdini lol
cheers


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

One of the best reasons why it is hard to trade the market is manipulation. You have 85 billion a month for starters and then from there you have to manage the media, stock market, PM market, currency markets and have to keep the world together in on the scheme.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Yes the Fed and ECB are involved in a lot of market manipulation. You can't take these QE programs lightly... they have a huge impact on the decisions that everyone makes.

The whole point of what they're doing is manipulating the market


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

QE has taken over the markets to such an extent, they are now investigating early release of the Fed minutes.......by a percentage of 1 second. They calculate it takes 7 milliseconds for data to travel at the speed of light from Washington to Chicago............but major trading activity began in Chicago after 2 milliseconds.........meaning someone leaked the information milliseconds before the mandated 2 pm release time.

The Fed means so much to market trading they are worrying about 5 milliseconds of early trading.............crazy.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

why don't they release the minutes after trading closes like many companies do with results and important news ?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

That's actually a good point and a colleague of mine noted how gold futures started responding before the official release.

If you are in the club of lucky people who gets early access to the data, you can leverage 50:1 or whatever into gold futures and make a fortune from the Fed's e-zee money program

Remember it was discovered a few months ago that a group of lucky people were getting early access to certain government releases. Among them were bureaucrats, investment banks and law firms. So if you think this market is a level playing field...


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Apparently the Fed and US government can legally manipulate whatever they want and do. 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._Truth_About_Secret_Documents_&_The_CFTC.html

I suppose it will go on until they can't do it anymore. What will stop them will be interest rates rising destroying the bond market despite all efforts to stop the rise.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

i can scalp certain stocks dog.
what i cannot do atm is take high leverage bets in certain commodditties.
nobody with deep pockets wants to be the first.
China on holydays.
mess in the white house .... will be resolved.
certain stocks are getting really attractive though.
solid companies in the oil/gas business.
not touching anything .

been a long time since i am actually on the sidelines.
i hope u do well.
maybe gold will surprise and simply take off .
thin or not thin volume.
i am out.

cheers.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

fatcat
we cannot compete with high speed algos.
trust me .
been there... mission impossible.
regardless u might as well wait for dust to settle.
if u miss the run u can always short or vice versa.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I don't know why the fed would make such manipulation secret. The point of manipulation is to change expectations. They would rather say they are going to do something, have the market front-run them and then not have to do anything (so called jawboning).


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

In the stock market they must keep it secret so they can kill the shorts and use their volume against them.

In the PM market they must secretly intervene so they can protect the dollar against competing non fiat currencies. They also keep it secret because it would destroy the paper PM market if everyone knew that they would never get their gold if they wanted it.

They are completely and utterly bankrupt and China and Russia know it but let it happen because they hold so many dollars that they would like to exchange for hard assets. If they had went to war in Syria I think that would have been the event that triggered the complete collapse. 

At some point there will be a disaster and it is just a matter of time and that will probably be shown in the bond market as the bond market stopped the tapering. So manipulation and secrecy will increase until the system finally collapses.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm unconvinced. If China/Russia knew the USD was going to collapse, they would dump their treasuries while the Fed was guaranteeing the yield.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

andrewf said:


> If China/Russia knew the USD was going to collapse, they would dump their treasuries while the Fed was guaranteeing the yield.


Well, they are...in a way.
Both Russia and China are now respectively the top 2 sovereign holders of gold bullion.
Over the last 3 - 4 years, they have been gradually buying up gold, and other "hard" assets, such as oil and NG properties, mines, etc.

Russia is also proxy-buying gold via other countries that are part of the CIS over which Russian exercises significant influence (basically the old USSR).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-holdings-with-kazakhstan-for-11th-month.html

As we all know, China is on an acquisition spree for oil, NG, mining, timber, prime R/E, and other properties all over the world.

There is a significant migration of gold and other "hard" assets from the western world to the BRIC world.

They are obviously not going to "_dump_" their hordes of USD - why would they shoot themselves in the foot?
They are doing it slowly but surely.

Ref. dogcom's theory of gold manipulation by the Fed Reserve, I am not sure if the Fed can actually control the gold market.
What we are seeing is a steady shifting of gold from Western hands to Eastern hands.
IMHO, that is being perceived as manipulation by the US Fed but in fact may be the exact opposite.

The US Fed is powerless to stop the flight of gold and hard assets.
They surely see what is happening, but they can't do both i.e. they can't hold up the value of the USD _and_ control the gold.
They can do one or the other.
So far, they are choosing to save the USD obviously - just like Nixon.

In fact, if anything, Russia and China might be the ones manipulating the gold market to keep buying low and increase their hoard.
We know that there is only a limited amount of gold in existence and most of the gold mined in modern times is still around.
At this rate, Russia and China will end up owning all the gold in the world within our lifetimes.
Scary prospect, to say the least.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

They are currently dumping their USD to buy oil and mining companies and they are buying as much gold as possible when the price is discounted for them by the Fed. The US has long ago made agreements with them to keep the dollar stronger so they can get discounted assets to keep the game alive. 

If China and Russia do not play along and let the system collapse then they will be paid in confetti and that is their guarantee. The Chinese and Russians are not stupid they know far better then we do that the US, Europe and so on are completely broke and cannot possibly pay and have known this for a very long time.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

So this is like the "petro-dollar" style arrangement from the 1970s that the US made with the OPEC?
i.e. we keep the USD strong and you keep selling us cheap oil.
and btw, we will keep looking the other way while you trample all over human rights and freedom.

This is now the "gold-dollar" arrangement?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

HaroldCrump they hold up the gold manipulation by taking the gold from the COMEX, GLD, BOE and other sources. The BOE lost 1,300 tons of gold between March 2013 and June I believe and it was shown right on its website. This gold is sent east and is gratefully received at a nice discount curtesy of the Fed. China and Russia are a patient bunch and the longer they wait the better their position will be when a new monetary system is brought in.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

^ ok, so you and I are saying the same thing, except that I don't think the US Fed is consciously manipulating the gold market.
IMHO, they can't.
They can only try and hold up the strength of the USD, and that it has taken them > $3T to do so thus far.
They are watching helplessly as Russia and China are slowly buying up all the gold.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Harold since the second world war the CIA through numerous false flags, the latest being in Syria, to see to the interests of oil companies and many others. Intervene all over the world and uses the names of freedom and democracy as their cover.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

They can manipulate because they are being allowed to and do so knowing full well what they are doing. The game is over and they just don't want the end to come under their watch.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

By the way here is a little article on the speed of trading after the Fed announcement.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/cia-and-the-fed/#more-32408


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

One fund manager got it right............again.

Peter Schiff always maintained there would be no withdrawal by the Fed, and he explains why.

Schiff previously predicted the dot com bubble and crash and the US housing bubble and crash.

Unfortunately, he is usually brought on to CNBC, so a group of yahoos can sit around and mock him.

With the magic of youtube............all the evidence is gathered in this link.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/blo...er-schiff-calls-it-like-a-boss-samson-okalow/

I hope Schiff is wrong on his prediction on what will happen when the Fed withdraws QE. 

He forecast a pretty glum picture of the future US economic situation.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

This is another good reason to believe that rates will remain low for a long time. The Fed not only has to stop increasing QE, but has to unwind its balance sheet. That is a lot of tightening that needs to happen before rates would have to rise.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I simply don't understand how keeping rates low, for so long, is a good thing.

Pain now, or considerable pain later.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Rates are being "kept" low to enable the US govt. to service its debt, and to keep issuing new debt.
Monetary policy is servile to fiscal policy.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Just the talk of taper pushed up rates and if they go up much past 3 percent how will the US govt. pay its debts without an ever increasing QE.

Interesting news from Panama and of course I couldn't find it on the mainstream media sites. Of course the bank holiday is just for a system upgrade but what is troubling it was done without warning.

http://americankabuki.blogspot.ca/2...mpaign=Feed:+AmericanKabuki+(American+Kabuki)

I googled the Panama bank holiday and nothing came up from the mainstream media so you will have to take it from the fringe.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

In a previous post, I said the Fed gave the US Treasury about 5 billion in revenue from their securities.

According to Peter Schiff, that wasn't quite the whole story.

The Fed used the money to buy more bonds from the Treasury.........so QE is actually slightly more than the much talked about 85 Billion a month.

Also a story today, about how well PIMCO and some of the big banks have done in the bond markets. Their bond investments have performed perfectly, to make all kinds of money, in relationship to the Fed decisions.

By coincidence, PIMCO assists the Fed in purchasing the bonds they buy from the banks.

Of course it could also be darn good investing and a lot of luck, as they said it is the PIMCO guys at the other end of the office who do "that" investing.........................lol.

Every day......we learn a different way the wealthy are helping themselves to the money.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> Rates are being "kept" low to enable the US govt. to service its debt, and to keep issuing new debt.
> Monetary policy is servile to fiscal policy.


If it was a problem, we would be seeing high and accelerating inflation.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I believe the inflation numbers, about as much as I believe the unemployment numbers.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

So what do you think inflation really is--10%? And do you have any evidence (non-anecdotal) to support that conclusion?

Let's say you don't accept official inflation figures. Do you think there is a conspiracy to keep all inflation measures false? What about, say, the MIT Billion Prices Project? It shows prices have risen by about 1.5% CAGR over the past 5 years. It tracks official CPI fairly closely, as well. Please make your (possibly tinfoil-hat wearing) assumptions explicit.

http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

The conspiracy to me is keeping the faith in the US dollar as the reserve currency. If people lose faith in the dollar they will dump it at all costs and this would bring us to a real inflation disaster. This is the reason for manipulation in all markets as has been explained here. Of course managing the inflation numbers, employment numbers and so on in some way is to be part of the game. 

Ten to fifteen years ago if you mentioned the NSA and what they are doing or that the Fed would do QE three times and still going you would laughed off the planet. Today this is reality and doesn't need to be even looked up on google or anything.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

So, you've got nothing?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Stats Canada's data has problems.

The link shows the data.

The data from July 2013 to August 2013 defies common sense.

Transportation costs went down? Household costs went down? Rents stayed even?

On the year over year statistics.........note that every category except healthcare and prescriptions went up, some as high as near 2%........yet the overall index only went up 1.1%.

Healthcare and prescriptions have only a 5% weighting on the average, so how does a small decline in that one category bring down the average of all the other categories, to such a low level?

Does it even make sense, that what cost $100 in 2002..........only costs $123 today.......almost 12 years later?

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/cpis01a-eng.htm


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

sags, most of the values were around 1.1, with one significantly higher, and one more significantly lower. I don't think it would take an unreasonable weighting to get to an average of 1.1.

Here is how the basket is weighted:

http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/document/2301_D48_T9_V2-eng.htm


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## brad_g (Apr 12, 2013)

sags said:


> Stats Canada's data has problems.
> 
> Does it even make sense, that what cost $100 in 2002..........only costs $123 today.......almost 12 years later?
> 
> http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/cpis01a-eng.htm


Yes it does make sense. Do you have data that shows otherwise? 

I don't see what the fuss is over StatsCans CPI figures when the data they calculate the CPI from is widely available (prices!) and their methodology is published. Where is the room for manipulation?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I think the inflation we see is in the cost of services of professionals. You bring in tradesman like electricians, plumbers, carpenters and so on and the costs there have skyrocketed. I would also say the cost of materials like lumber and paint and so forth seems to be a lot higher.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

brad_g said:


> Yes it does make sense. Do you have data that shows otherwise?
> 
> I don't see what the fuss is over StatsCans CPI figures when the data they calculate the CPI from is widely available (prices!) and their methodology is published. Where is the room for manipulation?


And how could it be manipulated without people being able to point to the exact place they are fudging the numbers.

It seems all this sentiment about CPI being cooked is coming from people who don't understand CPI or the methodology and arguing that their gut feel is right and Statscan/etc. is operating some conspiracy to rob savers.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Andrewf your right I don't think the numbers they put out are wrong. I just think there is a lot missing in today's numbers as I mentioned with the cost of professional services.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Andrewf your right I don't think the numbers they put out are wrong. I just think there is a lot missing in today's numbers as I mentioned with the cost of professional services.


The problem is the methodology is designed around a basket that might be purchased by the 'average' person and no one is average. C'est la vie.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Further........the components of the "basket" are subjectively "weighted", and "highly volatile" items are excluded.

If the cost of recreation, education, and reading only increased by 0.3% from Aug 2012........to Aug 2013...........

Those who believe teacher remuneration and the cost of education is unsustainable........must be misguided.

The numbers may be correct according to the methodology used, but there is great benefit to the government for the cost of living numbers to be "under-reported" via the methodology.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Believe it or not, but there is some debate in economic circles about whether CPI actually _overstates_ inflation. This is because CPI does not fully take into account how changes in price alter consumption patterns. IE, when apples become more expensive, consumers buy less apples and more bananas (ie, substitution effect).

This is why it's so jarring for me--some people say inflation statistics are somewhat too high vs reality, while others are saying it's way too low.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Statistics like CPI, unemployment, etc. are becoming progressively more and more detached and divorced from reality.
This trend has been going on for a decade, but has really intensified since 2008/9.

It is *laughable *to suggest CPI _overstates_ inflation, let alone understates it.

Other than useless junk consumer products like LCD TVs, cell phones, DVD players, etc. nothing of any value is going down in price.
The rate of inflation in the top 3 most important items - *housing*, *health care*, and *education *- is running amok all over the developed world.
Food prices are running amok in the developing world.
Of course, it is all related.

Let us take housing for example.
This one asset class - single handedly - is bankrupting an entire generation and is dooming current home buyers into wage slavery for 30 - 35 years to come.
Health care costs in the US are the leading cause for bankruptcies.
The problem with education costs aka the student loan crisis is also well know.

Essentially, it doesn't matter what the CPI measures or what number it spits out - it is useless garbage, not worth speaking of even.

Unemployment statistics are also the same thing.
It doesn't matter what fantastic, fictitious numbers are being reported (esp. by the US DOL)
Swarms of workers have given up hopes of ever finding meaningful work, hordes more are under-employed.
Yet more hordes have been thrown into prison - the US now has one of the highest (if not _the_ highest) productive population behind bars.

Coming back to CPI, here is a video by Peter Schiff that provides a brief explanation.
He has more detailed explanations and insight in his book - _Crash Proof_.

I can find more articles and references online, but there is no point if one is determined to dismiss any alternative ideas and explanations as bogus.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> Let us take housing for example.
> This one asset class - single handedly - is bankrupting an entire generation and is dooming current home buyers into wage slavery for 30 - 35 years to come.


Most people, the average person, already owns his/her home (many with no mortgage at all) and has not been subject to asset price inflation. That is where your assumption goes off the rails. If I am not mistaken, I believe Stats Can uses (or at least once did use) rents as the proxy for housing to reflect 'reality'. After all, who really would/should buy a house if the cost benefit analysis (and studies have been done) that show renting is less expensive overall over a lifetime.

Health care is not a significant cost issue for the average person - who MIGHT see a doctor once a year, has no need for prescription drugs, and is unlikely to use the hospital system for 10 years at a time. It is only the heavy users of the health system that feel the impact.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

AltaRed said:


> Most people, the average person, already owns his/her home (many with no mortgage at all) and has not been subject to asset price inflation.


_Which_ average person?
The one aged 55 or 35 or 25?
Sure, many boomers own all or most of their house free and clear...but not the average first time home-buyer in the last 5 - 8 years.



> If I am not mistaken, I believe Stats Can uses (or at least once did use) rents as the proxy for housing to reflect 'reality'.


That is _exactly_ what I meant by the stats not reflecting reality at all.
We know (from many sources) that there is a divergence between the historical rent to property value ratios.
Using rent as a proxy for housing costs has been the wrong strategy over the last decade.
As home prices in major cities have nearly doubled, rents have barely budged.
Caused by a glut of new home construction, esp. condos, wannabe R/E "investors" yield chasing leading to low cap rates, rents no longer reflect the true cost of housing.



> After all, who really would/should buy a house if the cost benefit analysis (and studies have been done) that show renting is less expensive overall over a lifetime.


Why don't you ask the hundreds of thousands of home buyers _still _buying at these levels.



> Health care is not a significant cost issue for the average person


Go south of the border and try asking that question again.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

While prices have risen, carrying costs have not risen nearly as rapidly, due to the fall in interest rates. House prices don't factor directly into inflation statistics because the house is not what is being consumed. Housing services is what is being consumed, and it costs whatever the carrying cost/rental rate is over the period of time in question.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

HaroldCrump said:


> We know (from many sources) that there is a divergence between the historical rent to property value ratios.
> Using rent as a proxy for housing costs has been the wrong strategy over the last decade.
> As home prices in major cities have nearly doubled, rents have barely budged.


Many (most?) young adults rent until their late 20s or early 30s. The rents have barely budged in nominal terms over the last decade. In real terms, they experienced deflation. Today's 20-somethings spend less on rent that their predecessors 10 years ago. That's a major spending item for a large chunk of the general population. How can you ignore that?

Anecdote time:

I bought my house in 2002. I just checked the last apartment building I lived in. They currently advertise 1-bdr apartments from $929. That's LESS what I paid there in 2002. Major deflation in real terms!! Very nice building, BTW.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

ladies and gents.
quickly browsed to several sattements by harold , dog and others.
guys .... just think for a sec as a regular joe.
Is the kgb back to try and control the "fierce" debate about the debt ceiling?
i am not saying u guys do not have interesting thoughts but keep it simple.
agreement will be reached ... no matter what.
gold manipulation..... when u boys see the USA unload their reserves then start getting worried.
same with Germany... it simply ain't happening.
China is buying large amounts of companies involved in oil gold etc.... sure why not?
in the end of the day they are married to the USA.
Dollar will stay as index currency.
are we doomed in the long run?
yes we are.

still completely on the sidelines... and sold my CCO shares .
will hold KO.
absolutely not a dime in this mkt.
this mkt is impressively ridiculous.
maybe I will join Soros and buy JCP.... who knows right?

take care all.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

i am sure that u are a savvy trader HC.
u think u do not foot a hefty Bill in Canad for the so called Universal health care which u have to wait for major therapy like heart surgeries and so on and so forth?
u think the rich in canad do not have access to several private clinics IN canada for major treatment?
take another look.
As for housing i do agree with ya.
there ain't no free lunch brother.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

sylyconvalley said:


> i am sure that u are a savvy trader HC.
> u think u do not foot a hefty Bill in Canad for the so called Universal health care which u have to wait for major therapy like heart surgeries and so on and so forth?
> u think the rich in canad do not have access to several private clinics IN canada for major treatment?


I am keenly aware of all those facts.
I don't know where you live, but here in Ontario, in the last 4 years or so, we have had large tax increases to pay for all kinds of social programs, green energy, public transit, and various other boondoggles.
Health care transfer payments from the federal govt. to provinces is mandated to grow by 6% YoY - that is over 300% the rate of official "inflation".


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> _Which_ average person?
> The one aged 55 or 35 or 25?
> Sure, many boomers own all or most of their house free and clear...but not the average first time home-buyer in the last 5 - 8 years.


The first time home buyer is only a small segment of the overall population and thus is not much of a weighting factor in the calculation. The average person is the weighted average adult person aged 18-95(or thereabouts - would have to check methodology to be certain).



> That is _exactly_ what I meant by the stats not reflecting reality at all.
> We know (from many sources) that there is a divergence between the historical rent to property value ratios.
> Using rent as a proxy for housing costs has been the wrong strategy over the last decade.
> As home prices in major cities have nearly doubled, rents have barely budged.
> ...


As has already been mentioned, it is housing services that are consumed and that is the market cost of rent. If housing prices are out of whack, no one should be buying. It is not the country's fault if people are making uneconomical decisions.



> Go south of the border and try asking that question again.


Not very applicable, at least for Canada. Only those that need health care are paying the big bucks, and the vast majority of people need very little (and mostly preventative) health care, a once/yr checkup, maybe one drug prescription a year. It is that bulk of the population that keeps the weighted average cost down. 

Overall, you cannot cherry pick the portion of the population that incurs high/substantial costs in the measure of CPI. It has to be the weighted cost of the average of the entire adult population.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

sylyconvalley said:


> ladies and gents.
> quickly browsed to several sattements by harold , dog and others.
> guys .... just think for a sec as a regular joe.
> Is the kgb back to try and control the "fierce" debate about the debt ceiling?
> ...


^ i was awfully wrong.impressive.
well i had a 50/50 chance as a regular Joe.
lets rally with markets then.
the party keeps going....where is Houdini by the way ...:biggrin:


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Markets will keep rallying with all this peace news coming out of Syria and Iran. I am sure that Russia and China told the US that if they go into Syria that they would have no more use of these US dollars that they hold and try to taper that. So instead of war why don't you just keep discounting that gold for us and keep everyone happy.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

pm's are getting cheap again


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I think they may stay cheap until the Fed and friends run out of the gold they are robbing from the GLD, COMEX and where ever they can find it to manipulate the market. Look to the COMEX and GLD and such to settle in paper in the near future because the gold won't be there.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Patient: It hurts when I bang my head against the wall.
Doctor: Stop banging your head against the wall.

If gold market is as rigged as you claim, don't invest in gold. Problem solved.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

GoldStone said:


> If gold market is as rigged as you claim, don't invest in gold. Problem solved.


 but, it's like, _really_ shiny


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Goldstone gold is on the front line as far as the rigging goes, so it takes the biggest hit up front and you are right to stay clear if you can't take the hit. The problem is everything is rigged so stocks and bonds could be in for a far worse situation then gold and we are at an end here and the evidence is everywhere. As sylyconvalley said he is having a very hard time trading in this market so head banging will probably be in most every market so don't get to comfortable.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

dogcom said:


> Markets will keep rallying with *all this peace news coming out of Syria and Iran.*


Now that 2009 Nobel Peace Prize, is finally making some sense to me. Dah! 

It turns out, that it was an early vote of confidence in Obama's abilities. Thorbjoern Jagland, when asked why the prize had been awarded to Mr Obama less than a year after he took office: *"It was because we would like to support what he is trying to achieve. It is a clear signal that we want to advocate the same as he has done".* He specifically mentioned Mr Obama's work to strengthen international institutions and work towards a world free of nuclear arms.

Who might get the Prize next? Hint, what does 'da' mean in Russian? :biggrin:

Or maybe it will go to Rouhani.

'The honeymoon between the US and Iran is not about the moderate character of newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani or crippling sanctions that eat away at Iran's economy. It is all about geopolitics and the balance of power in the region.'
http://www.todayszaman.com/blog/mah...an-aligns-with-us-to-counter-sunni-world.html


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The US had an opportunity for peaceful relationship with Iran........but they didn't like the overthrow of the US controlled Shah, backed Saddam Hussein and Iraq in the horrific Iraq-Iran War, and to further destroy the relationship, shot down an Iranian airliner killing 290 people, including 66 children..........and then refused to accept responsibility, refused to pay compensation for the destroyed aircraft, awarded medals to the officers on board the ship, and refused to pay any compensation to the victims.......until President Clinton took office and ordered compensation to be paid.

The incident took place in Iranian waters and Iranian airspace.

The US still refuses to accept any responsibility in the incident...........instead blaming the Iranians.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-july-1988-shooting-down-of-iran-air-flight-655/5341463

The incident happened on July 3, 1988....................25 years ago.

Had the US taken a different course when the Shah was overthrown............their relationship with Iran may have been quite different.

Better late than never though. I am glad that Obama is willing to talk to the Iranians.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Sure the US is not blameless, but you're not laying any blame on Iran for anything? Any incidents after/prior to 1988 that you can think of?

Tell us what's false on this list:
http://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/terrorism_timeline

And regarding your edited comment of 'better late than never', I agree, as silence has never solved anything. However, interesting how you picked the 1988 shooting of an Iranian airliner by the US, when the silence between the 2 countries had began almost a decade earlier, or did you forget about the hostage crisis?!


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I don't defend either Iran or the US for the incidents that created and perpetuated the poor relations between the two countries.

My point is the history between the two countries might well have been much different, had the US not interfered with Iran's sovereign affairs, since the 1950s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'état


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> 'The honeymoon between the US and Iran is not about the moderate character of newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani or crippling sanctions that eat away at Iran's economy. It is all about geopolitics and the balance of power in the region.'
> http://www.todayszaman.com/blog/mah...an-aligns-with-us-to-counter-sunni-world.html


i find this column hard to believe gal 

the usa has cultivated turkey, egypt and saudi arabia for many, many years and they are all overwhelmingly sunni

the saudi's can singlehandedly control the price and output of oil, they have reserves so vast that they can dramatically affect oil prices worldwide and they hate iran

egypt is key because of it's recognition of israel and turkey is key by virtue of it's size and location close to russia and all of the middle east (not to mention that it is a member of nato)

all 3 countries are armed continuously with american weaponry

i think it IS about sanctions and given the history of the usa and iran, and the constant threats against israel by iran, i see no reason for usa to begin to make nice with iran

the column does not ring true to me


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

fatcat said:


> i think *it IS about sanctions*....the column does not ring true to me


Sorry, I forgot to use this :rolleyes2: next to the quoted comment. 

Absolutely that it is all about the sanctions; they took a huge bite, and their economy is in tatters, hence Iran/Mr. Rouhani requested a swift resolve. 

I'm always amazed at what people in the region actually believe, and how they interpret realities.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> Sorry, I forgot to use this :rolleyes2: next to the quoted comment.
> 
> Absolutely that it is all about the sanctions; they took a huge bite, and their economy is in tatters, hence Iran/Mr. Rouhani requested a swift resolve.
> 
> I'm always amazed at what people in the region actually believe, and how they interpret realities.


right, i take it as a good sign that the sanctions are working ... i wouldn't trust the leaders of the regime on any count (whether rouhani has any real pull to change things remains to be seen) they are probably trying to play for time and get some sanctions lifted, give the economy a shot in the arm and keep doing exactly what they have been doing all along, develop a bomb

i have to say, even though i am a long time and consistent supporter of israel and their right to exist and live in peace, i am sympathetic to their (the iranian's) desires ... the middle east is a hostile and dangerous place

the israeli's have something like 200 nukes and they have their own crazies who match iran's mullahs for sheer religious fanaticism

google "red heifer" and you will see what i mean


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

With Syria now off the table it does make sense for Iran to make a move like this. For the US they lost in Syria and it makes sense for them to make the most of it by trying to get Iran to back down peacefully from its nuclear ambitions. Russia and China of course hold the dollar nuclear threat so the US is in a corner and makes more gains by looking good on the peace front.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

fatcat said:


> *1. *a good sign that the sanctions are working ...
> *2.* the middle east is a hostile and dangerous place
> *3.* the israeli's have something like 200 nukes and they have their own crazies who match iran's mullahs for sheer religious fanaticism..."red heifer"


*1.* Indeed they are working, but at what brutal cost to the Iranians? What does that say about their Supreme Leader?

"According to Iran's Constitution, the Supreme Leader is responsible for the delineation and supervision of "the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran," which means that he sets the tone and direction of Iran's domestic and foreign policies. The Supreme Leader also is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and controls the Islamic Republic's intelligence and security operations; he alone can declare war or peace. He has the power to appoint and dismiss the leaders of the judiciary, the state radio and television networks, and the supreme commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. *He also appoints six of the twelve members of the Council of Guardians, the powerful body that oversees the activities of Parliament and determines which candidates are qualified to run for public office. * The Supreme Leader's sphere of power is extended through his representatives, an estimated 2,000 of whom are sprinkled throughout all sectors of the government and who serve as the Leader's clerical field operatives. In some respects the Supreme Leader's representatives are more powerful than the president's ministers and have the authority to intervene in any matter of state on the Supreme Leader's behalf."

Btw, Dr. Rouhani was chosen from just 8 out of the 700+ candidates who had applied for the job of President.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/spotlight/iranelections/2013/05/2013521111920821747.html
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/tehran/inside/govt.html

*2.* In fact, it's the most unstable place on earth! If you had to live in one country there, which one would you pick? Where in that part of the world, could anyone attend/support a gay pride parade without being arrested/killed? [no need to answer].

But, who poses the danger in the region? Who are the ones doing much more than just bullying? Who might start WWIII? Definitely NOT Israel, despite popular belief that it's the most belligerent & paranoid nation in the region; aggressive, and brutal even, in their retaliation, yes, but who could blame them? How many of the conflicts/wars since 1948 [listed below], were provoked/started by Israel? Where would it be without the protection of the IDF? Keep in mind that Israel's Jewish population is just over 6 million, and is practically swallowed-up by 23 Arab/Muslim countries, and outnumbering them by 40 to 1 [as of 3 years ago]. So absolutely I'm sympathetic to Israel's desire to live in peace after decades of continual violence perpetrated against its people.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces

*3. *And what do you think Israel would do with them, if they had them? 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/30/us-israel-chemical-idUSBRE98T0CS20130930

As for religious fanaticism, it exists everywhere, not just in the ME, or did you not read about the Pentecostal cattle breeder from Mississippi, who believed in 'red heifer'? Not all fanatics represent same danger, however.

*dogcom:* I agree with your comments, although I wouldn't say that Syria is off the table just yet.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Of course if Syria doesn't comply then the US will get the world backing it would want and Saudi Arabia will most likely pay for the attack. Assad would be an idiot to let this happen but of course dictators have an itch to do stupid stuff like this.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Indeed they are working, but at what brutal cost to the Iranians? What does that say about their Supreme Leader?
> 
> "According to Iran's Constitution, the Supreme Leader is responsible for the delineation and supervision of "the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran," which means that he sets the tone and direction of Iran's domestic and foreign policies. The Supreme Leader also is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and controls the Islamic Republic's intelligence and security operations; he alone can declare war or peace. He has the power to appoint and dismiss the leaders of the judiciary, the state radio and television networks, and the supreme commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. *He also appoints six of the twelve members of the Council of Guardians, the powerful body that oversees the activities of Parliament and determines which candidates are qualified to run for public office. * The Supreme Leader's sphere of power is extended through his representatives, an estimated 2,000 of whom are sprinkled throughout all sectors of the government and who serve as the Leader's clerical field operatives. In some respects the Supreme Leader's representatives are more powerful than the president's ministers and have the authority to intervene in any matter of state on the Supreme Leader's behalf."
> 
> ...


thanks for that gal ...

1) we agree completely, iran is a fascist state and its people suffer under their theocracy, to call it truly democratic is a huge error

2) i wouldn't want to live there ... i have never believed that israel was belligerent, aggressive or paranoid ... they generally hit only when they have been hit first ... they do hit hard but often exercise restraint ... it's clear to me that most of the israeli's want to live in peace

3) i don't agree that not all fanatics represent the same danger ... religious fanatacism leads to the same place whether it is a buddhist mob killing a muslim or christian calling for armageddon or a fanatical jew wanting to rebuild the third temple at all costs ... it all follows the same premise of "i am right and you are wrong"

there is no shortage of religious fanatics in israel who would clearly use the threat of nukes to get their way if they took power (which so far they haven't though they are gaining every day) ... don't kid yourself gal, fanatics are all the same

the haredi or ultra-orthodox jews are the mirror image of the mullahs in iran or the christian dominionists in the usa, they are _all_ fanatics


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

Dog.
been in cash since i have mentioned awhile ago.
playing this mkt atm IMo is just like going to a casino.
unless u are buying solid companies with a long time horizon.
.. 5-10 years down the road.
example XOM ... trading at a nice price but i think will drift lower .
that is 1 example.
for me and like i said to you and this board before, i technically see gold retesting the lows of june possibly.
we retested the lows of august already .
the US dollar is absolutely oversold and gold does not move at all.
as for the mkts themselves , my gut feeling is that they will compromise in the debt ceiling debate.
they have to.
period.
that one they know they cannot play with.
My gut also says that it will be too late though , and another downgrade of american debt will be announced .... unless the debt ceiling is raised according to what Fitch is expecting.
forget about Moody's .. Buffet controls Moody's IMo.
u are right I cannot trade this volatility and i find it too risky to do so.
no matter what u trade u can get ur *** served on a platter to ya.
wish all the traders venturing out there much luck though.
take care:encouragement:


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

fatcat said:


> thanks for that gal ...
> 
> 1) we agree completely, iran is a fascist state and its people suffer under their theocracy, to call it truly democratic is a huge error
> 
> ...


fatcat.

sorry but u are wrong in regards to ultra- orthodox Jews and their capability of ever using nukes.
Israel does not need to threaten to use nukes whatsoever.
Everybody on earth talks about Israeli nukes ... nobody really knows what is behind the Israeli program.
I mean almost nobody.
The Israeli nukes are the last line of Israel's defense .
If u never heard of the expression " never again" try and look for it.
When you do find it and who pronounced it u will understand what i mean .
U probably know it already.
If israel launches ..... we will not be chi chatting here.... u can bet ur farm on that one.


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

fatcat said:


> right, i take it as a good sign that the sanctions are working ... i wouldn't trust the leaders of the regime on any count (whether rouhani has any real pull to change things remains to be seen) they are probably trying to play for time and get some sanctions lifted, give the economy a shot in the arm and keep doing exactly what they have been doing all along, develop a bomb
> 
> i have to say, even though i am a long time and consistent supporter of israel and their right to exist and live in peace, i am sympathetic to their (the iranian's) desires ... the middle east is a hostile and dangerous place
> 
> ...


If i may ask, where do u get this 200 nukes number?
how many Kilotons each warhead?
I am glad that u do support the ONLY democratic country in the middle east that evolved 1 million times fold without any resources when compared to its neighbors.
It is called determination and necessity.
just like in war times many new inventions come to fruition so did Israel, in less then a century became a country capable of impressive and stunning development in ALL areas.
TIA
please no wikipedia or zerohedge


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

GoldStone said:


> Patient: It hurts when I bang my head against the wall.
> Doctor: Stop banging your head against the wall.
> 
> If gold market is as rigged as you claim, don't invest in gold. Problem solved.


i will side with dogcom.
I had lengthy talks with him about being rigged and trading.
I could not give a hoot as to what is rigged or not rigged.
except oil.... i will not short oil and the last run i did not enter the trade because I have principles and I would not profit from a children's massacre with sarin gas.
no effin way.
seen a lot of death around me but not with chemical weapons like the last one.
could have made sweet easy easy money.
It does not mean that I do not know that EVERY futures mkt is rigged by deep pockets to a certain point.
just like stocks are also rigged by analysts that get their hands greased to upgrade or downgrade a company etc.....
nevertheless If u do trade gold or silver or any other metal , please tell me where are we heading.
i said my piece at another post.
we are retesting the lows and I will go further. in the long run u may see gold below 1k.
it will be most impressive technical move achieved in the gold mkt if it occurs according to my Crystal ball lol.. 
it will also be an exceptional entry point in this rigged mkt .
nevertheless i guarantee you that every soul on earth will be scared to death to touch gold at the very bottom.
I will back up the truck then.
tell me about rigged.
will wait patiently to read what is ur call :02.47-tranquillity:


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm quite confused. If all financial markets are rigged, why do you participate? Glutton for punishment?


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

^
why confused?
just because mkts have not found a direction yet and had been extremely volatile and are rigged why would i not participate?
i think that i made good money so far .
many stocks that i have posted here and shared with others had a great run recently.
Ceres is one of them .
have u looked at it ?
a 40 cents increase is not money in ur book when bought at 1.2 and selling at 1.6?
my short in a 3x leveraged etf on silver from the highs is not good money?
except for my last call on the shutdown . i am very well sir.
do not worry bout me sir.
maybe u are not so well?
nevertheless if u can trade a 40 bux run intraday by all means .... just do it.
i actually have gluttony for money sir.
i do not have gluttony for gambling.
red or black..
place ur bet.... bizarre comment from ur end.
if u are so good and believe that mkts are not rigged why gold did not go to 1500 bux with so much uncertainty?
is it not a safe heaven.... lol

p.s that is why i refrain from posting or commenting about something here.
i get people like u making comments like that.
impressive


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Yikes.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Something very bad is coming and stocks and bonds will be smashed or the US dollar will go into free fall as inflation goes nuts.

Trading is fine as sylycon has done but holding has a lot of danger attached to it. As soon as the gold runs out for China and Russia to buy then we will see the rug pulled out from under the US unless they manipulate something else to the downside to keep them happy. You see if the US didn't offer bargains through manipulated commodities then the dollar would be dumped. The stock market manipulation is meant to give the feel good feeling that everything is running fine.

On Israel they have nukes and that is all the threat anyone needs and it goes for all countries that have them. Of course using them risks disaster for all sides and has no winners attached to it. Israel has enough other weapons and recourses to use that is more then enough to protect them.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

fatcat said:


> 1. i don't agree that not all fanatics represent the same danger....*no shortage of religious fanatics in israel who would clearly use the threat of nukes* to get their way...
> 2. the haredi or *ultra-orthodox jews are the mirror image of the mullahs in iran* or the christian dominionists in the usa, they are _all_ fanatics


*1.* We will 'clearly' have to agree to 1000% disagree on both counts.
*2.* Can you give examples [not isolated ones], that the ultra-orthodox Jews, or even the conservatives for that matter, and not just those of Israel, actually are extremists, and generally promote bigotry/genocide/terrorism in Israel and abroad?

I don't think you understand that group at all. If I had to be stuck on an island with just one religious fanatic, I'll take a Charedi any day.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Good question Dogcom................

What DOES happen when the big buyers of gold can't find any?

I read there is a "premium" on physical gold in India. People pay extra to get it into their hands.

I was browsing a pawn shop the other day (love touring around pawn shops for unusual items), and the guy told me he "could use more inventory".

I asked him what he wanted most...........gold............he said.

When gold reached it's highs, we gathered up all our broken chains and junk stuff and took into a jewelry store. We walked out the door with $700 in cash, for stuff I almost threw into the garbage pail.

We thought that was pretty good.

There are the philosophical arguments about gold.........but people seem to want it anyways.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Maybe the US is manipulating gold...........so they can assemble the German gold at a cheaper rate?

I want to buy a little bit of pure gold, but I want to get it as bullion from the Canadian Mint.

A little...........just to look at and say I have some "pure" gold. Maybe collect 10 ounces and leave it for the grandson's education.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Sags you see the deal is if you are a large holder of US dollars and even Euros you would be very worried about holding it long term in the face of massive money printing. You would want to hold hard assets that couldn't be printed away and in the case of gold and silver you have the knowledge that everyone will value it as money the same way they would value a paper currency. The only difference of course is the metals can't be printed and must be dug out of the ground which is no easy task.

So Russia and China as well as others know that the US dollar days are numbered as the reserve currency so they buy gold preparing for the day that they will run the show backed by gold. In the meantime they are more then happy to sit back and watch the Fed try to survive by providing them with tons of discounted bullion.

Paper gold of course is a different matter because when the COMEX and GLD run out they will simply shutdown and settle in paper. Of course the US could grow out of its troubles and get its act together but if they do grow fast then interest rates would rise and the debt will be completely out of control so they must default in some way to get out.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

sylyconvalley said:


> If i may ask, where do u get this 200 nukes number?
> how many Kilotons each warhead?
> I am glad that u do support the ONLY democratic country in the middle east that evolved 1 million times fold without any resources when compared to its neighbors.
> It is called determination and necessity.
> ...


come on valley, i can't be letting you dictate my sources man ...

wikipedia with all its faults (and they are there even though in the main wikipedia is mostly very accurate) is a very good place to go to get a heads up on just about anything



> “… Wikipedia articles in this sample scored higher altogether in each of the three languages, and fared particularly well in categories of accuracy and references. As the report notes, the English Wikipedia fared well in this sample against Encyclopaedia Britannica in terms of accuracy, references and overall judgement, with little differences between the two on style and overall quality score.”
> 
> http://library.blogs.delaware.gov/2013/05/05/is-wikipedia-a-reliable-source/


nevertheless, israel is believed to have up to 200 nuclear warheads, there is a abundance of evidence that points in this direction

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/19/opinion/global/lets-be-honest-about-israels-nukes.html?_r=0

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ring-israels-nuclear-program/article13193235/

israel also possesses chemical and biological weapons (a strange choice for a country whose people were famously killed en masse by chemical weapons)

the ultra-orthodox are daily gaining on the more moderate jews in israel with a birthrate that remains very high in contrast to the latter's declining birthrate

the ultra-orthodox espouse anti-feminist, anti-muslim, anti-secular views that mirror what we see in orthodox islam ... they assault and attack muslims all over israel and the west bank .. they regularly attack and even kill palestinians young and old ... stories like this are common ... do a simple google search



> JERUSALEM — Axe-wielding ultra-Orthodox Jews went on a rampage in a Jerusalem neighbourhood, wounding a Palestinian taxi driver, destroying his vehicle and setting dumpsters on fire, police and witnesses said on Wednesday.
> The violence took place overnight in Mea Sharim, a bastion of ultra-Orthodox Jews, known as Haredis.
> Police "pulled out from the neighbourhood following violent riots in recent days," said spokesman Shmulik Ben Rubi.
> Israeli media said *several dozen young Haredis attacked a Palestinian driver *and destroyed his vehicle with axes. Police said the man was lightly wounded.


in other words they give as good as the get ... there is no reason in the slightest to believe that they wouldn't use weapons of mass destruction for political purposes

they are the mirror image of the mullahs and hard line muslims and to think anything else is foolish

all religious fanatics share the same underlying pathology ... regardless of what religion they clothe themselves in


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* We will 'clearly' have to agree to 1000% disagree on both counts.
> *2.* Can you give examples [not isolated ones], that the ultra-orthodox Jews, or even the conservatives for that matter, and not just those of Israel, actually are extremists, and generally promote bigotry/genocide/terrorism in Israel and abroad?
> 
> I don't think you understand that group at all. If I had to be stuck on an island with just one religious fanatic, I'll take a Charedi any day.


 see my response above to valley

i would rather be stuck on an island with NO religious fanatics ... lift the robes and you find the same man or woman underneath regardless of their faith

ps. you do realize that if the haredi you were stuck with would insist that you live on the other side of the island except when you came over to wash his clothes and cook his dinner ... 

the haredi engage in violence against women and children as well as sexual abuse of children exactly as happens in secular society, they are no different in this regard ...


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

fatcat said:


> 1. I would rather be stuck on an island with NO religious fanatics
> 2. you do realize that if the haredi you were stuck with would insist that you live on the other side of the island except when you came over to wash his clothes and cook his dinner.....


*1. *Of course, that would always be preferable; let me be very clear, I would rather be stuck with you, so no contest there. 

*2.* I know all about the chauvinistic/patriarchal & other aspects of that group. I actually pity haredi women, especially those in arranged marriages. Anyway, I don't have a PhD on Orthodox [or Strict Traditionalism if you will], vs Orthodox Fanaticism, so I'll end it here. 

I completely agree with you about wikipedia; it's a fantastic starting point, but then it's up to you to verify it all, and take your research as far as your curiosity & interest will take you.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

toronto.gal, surely you don't think orthodox jews are not making peace in Israel more difficult, particularly with settlements on the west bank?

I usually stay away from the topic of israel/palestine because it is an intractable quagmire with all participants acting in bad faith (ie, pox on all their houses). I'll probably regret saying anything...


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1. *Of course, that would always be preferable; let me be very clear, I would rather be stuck with you, so no contest there.
> 
> *2.* I know all about the chauvinistic/patriarchal & other aspects of that group. I actually pity haredi women, especially those in arranged marriages. Anyway, I don't have a PhD on Orthodox [or Strict Traditionalism if you will], vs Orthodox Fanaticism, so I'll end it here.
> 
> I completely agree with you about wikipedia; it's a fantastic starting point, but then it's up to you to verify it all, and take your research as far as your curiosity & interest will take you.


well gal, i would certainly enjoy being stuck with you and i hope my attitude would be the opposite of patriarchal and i would open my ears and learn something about investing ....

i am no expert on the conflict other than reading and following for about 50 years i guess ...

i always have strongly and unequivocally supported israel's right to exist and generally believe they _mostly_ act defensively ... but my eyes are open ... they are not blameless ... they sometimes hit _before_ they have been hit ... the west bank settlements (and checkpoints which are so dehumanizing) as andrew says are a big problem

i would love to see a two-state solution before i die ... i doubt i will


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

fatcat said:


> come on valley, i can't be letting you dictate my sources man ...
> 
> wikipedia with all its faults (and they are there even though in the main wikipedia is mostly very accurate) is a very good place to go to get a heads up on just about anything
> 
> ...


FC
of course i cannot dictate anything to you .
i would never dictate anything to anyone anywhere.
as for what kind of weapons Israel has or does not have means a lot of course.
i will go back to necessity and need for survival and the fact that "NEVER AGAIN" means never again .
is it wrong to possess chemical and biological weapons to defend their own country?
if i told you that this whole mumbo jumbo about Israel possessing nukes is a fallacy would you believe me?
That is it man.
The Jews from The Europe shtetls are long gone brother.
We are a nation that lives day in and out in a military defacto life.
If we do get threatened and in the brink of destruction everyone goes.... 
second world war was THE BRUTAL LESSON.... Lesson learned.
If they throw a stone in our backyard . we will throw a grenade in theirs.
they launch a rocket .
we will bulldozzer a whole village.
it is a never ending story.
but nobody talks about 1000 live prisoners of theirs exchanged for 5 or 10 or whatever many dead ones of oursin their hands so the families of the fallen ones can give them a proper burial.
1 prisoner of ours alive for 1k of them..
u hear that a lot do u not?
as for Israel and the nuclear program take a real good look as to what is declassified and see what country and how that country really helped Israel start the nuke program.
the rest...... you and I will not know.
after all i am just a regular Joe right?

Vanunu tried at no avail.
not sure why he did it but he did it.
we are all human beings after all.

anyway..... take care man.
we can write another bible about this.
maybe one day the good souls in this board will by a chance meet each other and share what they lived through now.
we all have a past right?
sometimes i try hard to forget mine..... I mean it.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

fatcat said:


> 1. the west bank settlements *(and checkpoints which are so dehumanizing*) as andrew says are a big problem
> 2. i would love to see a two-state solution before i die ... i doubt i will


*1.* Do you know what else I find 'dehumanizing'? Parts of society, and not just the terrorists, that abuse, exploit and use their children as human shields/teach them to hate, to kill, and become living bombs in order to kill others.

How many times do you hear about Jewish civilians turning homicide bombers [of any age/gender], blowing themselves up? When do you hear about Jewish people planting bombs in buses, restaurants and shopping malls? Why do you suppose there are 'dehumanizing' check-points, which they are, I'm not disagreeing there, but what's the alternative atm? Why are there thousands of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli jails? How many Israeli terrorists in Palestinian jails? 

*2.* So would I, but I don't think it will happen even in my son's lifetime.

Let's keep in mind that all of the now so called 'occupied territories', which include the West Bank, came about as a result of the combined and simultaneous attacks against Israel by Egypt/Jordan/Syria back in 67. Israel never entered the West Bank, which had previously been under the occupation of Jordan, until after Jordan attacked Israel. 

- May/67 - Egypt's president Abdel Nasser: "Our basic objective will be the destruction of Israel. The Arab people want to fight." War follows, and Jordan & Syria join Egypt. But sure many blame that and all wars on Israel.

- Occupation = foreign control of an area that was under the previous sovereignty of another state. Jordan's occupation of about 2 decades had been illegal, but did Palestinians ever complain about their occupation?

- Disputed = subject to disagreement, *and that is what Israel rightly maintains the issue is about,* not about occupation, settlements, etc., those are mostly excuses to prevent peace.

Who gives back land won in defensive wars in the manner that Israel is expected to do, and has done so already for the sake of peace, in fact? Wonder why Turkey does not return Istanbul to the Greeks? 

Let's also keep in mind, that when Israel evicted all Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip, what did the Palestinian people do? They [democratically] elected Hamas, which in turn have launched brutal intifadas & incessant terror attacks, hence the 2008 Gaza War. And what happened when some Jewish settlers were removed from the West Bank also?

There are good reasons why Israel retains control of the area. The issue is far from uniform, and there are complex historical/legal/security issues. The ones most to blame IMHO, are the Palestinians and Arab countries, both of whom were the ones who have provoked/started every single conflict and war in the last 6+ decades. 

Scroll forward to the present, destroying Israel is still the desire of many Palestinians.

'The Real Palestinian Refugee Problem'
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/299512/real-palestinian-refugee-problem-clifford-d-may 

Btw, there had been a similar # of Jews that had fled or expelled from Arab & Muslim countries, but is there a single Jewish refugee anywhere in the Arab/Muslim world? Why not? 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_Arab_and_Muslim_countries


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

TG, would you mind making room for 1 message in your inbox.
It keeps kicking my message back.

Sorry, fatcat, now back to regular programming...


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Do you know what else I find 'dehumanizing'? Parts of society, and not just the terrorists, that abuse, exploit and use their children as human shields/teach them to hate, to kill, and become living bombs in order to kill others.
> 
> How many times do you hear about Jewish civilians turning homicide bombers [of any age/gender], blowing themselves up? When do you hear about Jewish people planting bombs in buses, restaurants and shopping malls? Why do you suppose there are 'dehumanizing' check-points, which they are, I'm not disagreeing there, but what's the alternative atm? Why are there thousands of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli jails? How many Israeli terrorists in Palestinian jails?
> 
> ...


all good points ... 

i can only imagine what it would be like to live in a society where every day, the simple act of getting on a bus to go to work put you or your loved one's at risk of being horribly maimed or killed

but that doesn't make the checkpoints less dehumanizing ... the vast majority of palestinians would never bomb anyone but are trapped in a culture dominated by radicals

i am perhaps in a minority being a centrist who supports israel's right to exist and recognizes that, all of your excellent points of history not withstanding, the palestinians believe they have a right to a homeland which is as legitimate as the israeli's 

(of course, history is also irrelevant in a sense, because israel itself is now as much a symbol as it is a state which only makes the problem worse ... by which i mean that israel's existence has become a signifier of wounded muslim pride ... millions of muslims living hopeless lives in despotic, fascist countries who cannot find justice or fairness or freedom pour out all of their frustration on the cause of "liberating" palestine)

i would love to see peace and a two-state solution and a solution to jerusalem ... i don't think i will


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> TG, would you mind making room for 1 message in your inbox.
> It keeps kicking my message back.
> 
> Sorry, fatcat, now back to regular programming...


no need to apologize harold, gal and are off on a familiar tangent and perhaps should apologize to everyone else :chuncky:


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Why are there thousands of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli jails? How many Israeli terrorists in Palestinian jails?


Because Israeli has military superiority. Terrorism is asymmetric warfare used to counter an opponent with superior forces.

There are plenty of reports of acts of 'terror' committed on Palestinians by Israeli civilians and military. Why aren't they arrested? Perhaps because Palestine does not have the power to detain them.

Neither side is virtuous here. Both sides have treated each other as subhuman for decades. This will continue for decades more. The rest of the world should leave them to it--it's an intractable problem.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

andrewf said:


> Neither side is virtuous here. Both sides have treated each other as subhuman for decades. This will continue for decades more. The rest of the world should leave them to it--it's an intractable problem.


like you i am deeply frustrated but i do feel the rest of us have a moral obligation to restrain both sides and aid in keeping whatever peace is possible

on a practical, non-moral level, israel could easily be ground zero for world war 3 not to mention it is the birthplace of christianity so i think we all have a stake in the outcome

which is probably why it has stalemated for so long, there are many players with large stakes in the region, this would not go on for so long in most other places on earth


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

FC
some images for you .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuMWCAuIwXU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw-7EBnh0_c
this is nothing and i assure you that because of personal experiences.
But they know the media is there to record everything right?
try that stunt in Iran Iraq PakistanAfghanistan and many other "civilized" countries.
you consider these dehumanizing?
they go to protest and expect that an army with soldiers armed should just stay quiet right?
I wonder if 3k Jews went to mecca and started a protest in front of their majestic Rock.
what do you think? would they allow it?
would they be " civilized"
yes... like i said NEVER AGAIN .... .
Never Ever again .
by the way Tgal diplomacy here is being extreme .
I on the other hand am not that diplomatic.
nevertheless it is not easy to live with what I have experienced..... many years ago.
form a computer it is easy to type and talk.
when bullets start zooming over your head or when you have to make incursions in enemy territory things are much different.
lets go back to tapering.
we are going to end up in an argument that will be unnecessary.
as for andrewf .... I rest my case.... pitty.

p.s by the way the girl in the clip is pretty vocal is she not?
i thought they were not allowed any saying in their own culture.
and one more Historical fact.
there never was a palestine state.... ever.
wikipedia is good for that .
look at prior to 1948 if Israel did not propose a two state sollution .
problem was that the Arabs did not agreee.
that is real History.... not some fiction BS.
either way.... my last post in regards to this issues.
Maybe Syria was right in gassing their own then?
is that dehumanizing?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

valley, no point in mirroring the conflict on cmf ...

i will quit the thread and let you or gal have the last word

shalom ...


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

FC
you are absolutely right.
we may discuss historical facts in another thread if u wish.
i can share some of my experiences back then if u wish.
will not disagree that i am trying to make a point the same way u are.
Shalom to you also.
trust me . i wish that nothing like that ever happened.
by the way i wish you luck in ur trading also.
total sidelines here by the way.

p.s since i have been off and on online due to personal reasons and i noticed that the thread veered towards this discussion i decided to join it.
that is all.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Before returning to dogcom's topic [sorry dogcom], anyone would like to guess who gets the Peace Prize on Friday? 

Listen to the 'out of body' experience of the 3 men, who shared the Medicine Prize; it's just about 15 minutes combined for all.
http://www.nobelprize.org/

Peace out & good night!


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## sylyconvalley (Apr 22, 2013)

glad to see you.
actually i am the absentee right?
sleep well.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Side B is awful, therefore side A can try to out-awful them. What a productive mindset. No wonder there's been so much progress toward peace, stability and prosperity.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

You're right Andrew.

I watched a few "debates" between Israeli and Palestinian spokespeople, and it very quickly turned into a quagmire of arguments over ancient history.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Except for maybe the on the ground discussion in Israel, everything going on in the world could go into tapering. Tapering could lead to the collapse of the US financially through rising bond yields and from there the US can't fund its bases and military all over the world. The world could change a lot in the event of a financial collapse which could lead us to great wars down the road. I know everyone likes to talk about their particular stocks or funds thinking that the subject is on its own but really political and world events could have a huge impact on these funds and stocks bigger then their earning reports or whatever.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The impasse over the budget, the debt limit, an end to tapering...........the US is in a lot of turmoil and it looks like there will have to be a showdown between the Republican moderates and the Tea Party to solve any of the issues.

There are some pretty dire consequences being predicted if the debt limit problem isn't solved.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Speaking of fanaticism/history/politics, don't have to go far to find it, eh? Or should I say huh? :rolleyes2:

I agree with what doctrine had said in another thread, that the markets had not dropped enough for the fanatics to move.

Anyone paying attention to earnings? AA, no longer the 1st to kick off earnings season after being replaced in the Dow with NKE, seems to have surprised the analysts, lol, what else is new there?

Not a surprise was Yellen's nomination.


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Track the taper or track the market ?

Iam not smart enough to make things complicated. As the market talks I listen. I do not listen to taper talk for I do not play the taper I play the market the greatest game ever invented.

When the market babbles on I wait till it talks a little clearer


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

I am surprised that this thread has not been updated after today's tapering news.

Any comment? Is this the Santa Rally everyone has been talking about?


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## braintootired (Nov 4, 2013)

I'm surprised the stock market rallied after taper announcement. I'd assumed that everyone has been addicted to cheap liquidity for too long. How did the bond market react?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Announced that it will be reduced by $10B each month until gone in 8 months. I think the markets are anticipating that Yellen will defer the decreases IF the impact is too large?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Tapering may be he new way to tighten like we use to see when short term interest rates went up. The market will cheer each time it is done until the economy rolls over and then they have to scramble to put it back on again probably higher then were they started at 85 billion. Of course as mentioned the bond market could cause the turn around first.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Markets never like tightening monetary policy.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

From what I remember and other older investors can chime in here is that markets rise during the tightening round of monetary policy. The perception was besides the economy doing better was that the Fed had a handle on the market and wouldn't let it spin out of control. Of course the rates would rise until it got to expensive for the economy or companies to handle and that usually came with a lag so the Fed would overshoot and then we would get a recession. A sign of overshooting is when we saw an inverted yield curve.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

10 year bonds are now crossing 3 percent so I wonder how much higher they will go and what this will mean for Tapering going forward. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/26/markets-usa-bonds-idUSL2N0K50IB20131226

Of course trading is light so it may not be that big of a deal. It is also said the economy is improving with lower jobless claims and so on. On the other side I hear that all the numbers are just BS and eventually the true economy will be revealed for all to see.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

There are lots of baby boomers relying on investment income. With today's rate, ask yourself where is that 4-5% rate going to come from? Is there any other choice other than stocks for most laymen general public? So where is all this invested money going to leave to after taper? There is simply no place to hide. So why worried about disappearing money?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

If rates keep rising the money will initially go into cash and stocks. Once rates get high enough then stocks will fall as everyone exits stocks for the higher yielding bonds. Of course if the economy tanks then the flight back to bonds will come much sooner.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MoreMiles said:


> There are lots of baby boomers relying on investment income. With today's rate, ask yourself where is that 4-5% rate going to come from? Is there any other choice other than stocks for most laymen general public? So where is all this invested money going to leave to after taper? There is simply no place to hide. So why worried about disappearing money?


1. Because lots of the "money" in the investment world is borrowed. There's a lot of leverage out there. For instance, there's a massive credit bubble in China and this leads to the creation of money that finds its way into various assets (for instance bit coins, stock markets). This money is not there permanently, it originated from credit. It's very valid to worry about this money disappearing.

2. The boomers are retiring, yes, but they don't have enough money to retire off income alone. They will be liquidating their stocks. This is a net downward pressure on stocks, that is starting today and will persist for the next 20 years or so. The boomers are already fully invested, the only thing their demographic can do is sell stocks now.


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

Stocks will slide initially as money moves out of equities and into fixed income. This won't happen indefinitely though. If yields on equities reach a certain point the potential returns will be too attractive - investors will have a hard time not putting money back in the stock market. Also, as fixed income yields increase through speculation / tapering, they will stablize (and possibly decrease) as more real investors enter the fixed income market and bid principle prices back up.


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## Canadian (Sep 19, 2013)

james4beach said:


> The boomers are retiring, yes, but they don't have enough money to retire off income alone. They will be liquidating their stocks. This is a net downward pressure on stocks, that is starting today and will persist for the next 20 years or so. The boomers are already fully invested, the only thing their demographic can do is sell stocks now.


I hope so - I will be buying stocks for the next 40-50 years!


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

With Yellen coming up to talk about Taper under her leadership for the first time, what is your predication for the markets this week?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

MoreMiles said:


> There are lots of baby boomers relying on investment income. With today's rate, ask yourself *where is that 4-5% rate going to come from?*


Nowhere. I don't think 5% return is going to happen in an economy that is stagnant at 1% (before inflation)


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

MoreMiles said:


> With Yellen coming up to talk about Taper under her leadership for the first time, what is your predication for the markets this week?


With all the hot money flowing around and retirement money going in at this time of the year and the markets bouncing, you would think up would be the direction no matter what she says or does. But then again if she comes out and basically says the Fed is out no matter what markets do which is very unlikely then there could be a big selloff if we are just predicting next week.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

MoreMiles said:


> With Yellen coming up to talk about Taper under her leadership for the first time, what is your predication for the markets this week?


For those who placed the right bet before she talked, congratulations.


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