# The origin of the COVID virus



## sags (May 15, 2010)

I recently watched an interview with a world renowned expert on where virus originate and he made some interesting observations on the COVID.

1) The theory the virus originated with bats infecting someone and that person spreading the virus has problems. The person infected would have been 1200 kms away from the city of Wuhan when he encountered the bats. He then would have traveled the 1200 kms to Wuhan and spread the virus. Yet.....there was no infection outbreak in the area where the bats live. There was nobody contracting the virus along the journey to Wuhan. The outbreak started in Wuhan.

2) The COVID virus has an unusual DNA, which is not found in natural surroundings. It is identical to the type of change that is caused by "increase of function" types of experiments. No scientist has been able to explain how the COVID mutated naturally in exactly that fashion.

3) The WHO investigation was prevented from viewing the original data or talking to the Chinese lab researchers. They did note the Wuhan lab safety protocols were weak and lacking in many areas. The investigators could not come to any concrete conclusions.

4) There have been defectors to the US who worked in the Wuhan lab. They have been quickly silenced by the US government.

5) The Chinese knew immediately what they were dealing with. They immediately locked down Wuhan entirely. Nobody was allowed outside of their homes and they were spraying disinfectant all over the city in a frantic attempt to kill the virus. Traces of the virus was found near the Wuhan laboratory and the wet market. Early statements by President XI indicated they knew they had a very serious problem.......a possible catastrophe to deal with. The US embassy was immediately evacuated. Video started to surface from Wuhan showing people being moved by attendants in full protective gear. Citizens were welded into their homes. Drones were flying around telling people to get off the streets. Shut down violators were arrested and dragged off. All businesses were closed. The transit systems were closed. The streets were empty of people. It was a total lock down strongly enforced by the police.

6) The scientist said he *COULD NOT* say for certain the virus originated in the Wuhan lab......but he said there was no other explanation.

7) Why would authorities cover up the origin ? It could be because those types of experiments are deemed necessary to research future virus pandemics.
If admitted that the virus escaped the lab, there would be a global outcry against all such research, that many scientists including Dr. Fauci want to continue.

8) The Canada connection......what happened in the Winnipeg lab has never been disclosed. A couple of Chinese researchers were escorted out of the lab and later terminated. The RCMP has been investigating and hasn't released the findings, but the lab has said that "security protocols were breached". Why is the government and even the opposition parties not asking questions about the investigations ? It is like it doesn't exist.

So we don't know for certain if the virus came from a leak at the Wuhan lab, but it looks like the most likely origin.

We should know what happened in the Winnipeg lab.

Some will say it doesn't matter, but if such experiments are being carried out in Winnipeg as well.....the people should know the danger that represents.

Researchers of viruses also say that it is imperative to know where and how viruses are developed, to prevent or prepare for future outbreaks.


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## Retired Peasant (Apr 22, 2013)

sags said:


> I recently watched an interview with a world renowned expert on where virus originate and he made some interesting observations on the COVID.


Sorry, didn't read any further.
'watched an interview' - how about a link so we can watch it for ourselves?
'world renowned expert' - what are his credentials? who is it? what's his background?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

There is no way to link to a television interview unless it is posted online.

There are many articles online about possible origins. I thought this guy asked some interesting questions I hadn't heard before.

The US warned the Chinese the Wuhan lab lacked security protocols for the work they were doing just 2 years before the outbreak.

The Wuhan lab was conducting "gain of function" experiments on the COVID virus..........this virus.

Here is a link to that story. Lots of experts quoted therein.

_The research was designed to prevent the next SARS-like pandemic by anticipating how it might emerge. But even in 2015, other scientists questioned whether Shi’s team was taking unnecessary risks. In October 2014, the U.S. government had imposed a moratorium on funding of any research that makes a virus more deadly or contagious, known as “gain-of-function” experiments.
As many have pointed out, there is no evidence that the virus now plaguing the world was engineered; *scientists largely agree it came from animals. But that is not the same as saying it didn’t come from the lab, which spent years testing bat coronaviruses in animals, said Xiao*_



https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Retired Peasant said:


> Sorry, didn't read any further.
> 'watched an interview' - how about a link so we can watch it for ourselves?
> 'world renowned expert' - what are his credentials? who is it? what's his background?


No kidding ... maybe post the name of the show and did they have a segment on UFO's right after the covid piece?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

In the absence of any well thought out rebuttal......


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> In the absence of any well thought out rebuttal......


When people are launching conspiracy theories an appropriate rebuttal is a request for evidence.

But yeah, some unnamed expert from some unnamed video, that you can't provide a reference to isn't a very strong claim.

Remember there were doctors and experts claiming masks don't work, quarantines don't work, lockdowns don't work, and COVID is a hoax, so I'll remain skeptical of your claim.

Personally my favourite conspiracy is that COVID19 was actually launched as bioweapon attack at the military games.
That's a nice one, apparently with "officials" and "spokesmen" claiming all sorts of fun things.









We’re Still Learning About the Pandemic’s Early Days | National Review


Maybe the coronavirus was floating around America earlier than we thought, and the World Military Games in October.




www.nationalreview.com












Chinese Official Says US Army May Have 'Brought the Epidemic to Wuhan'


One conspiracy theory is that U.S. athletes participating in the Military World Games in Wuhan may have brought the virus.




www.military.com






I'm not saying I believe it, but it sounds like a really good China-Cold-War spy novel plot. Fortunately someone already wrote that book in '96.
Maybe just read Executive Orders by Tom Clancy, which uses weaponized ebola, and they have martial law and all sorts of wonderful things. Warning it is an 874 page book, but I think it was actually written by Tom Clancy, so it's better than the later ghostwritten books.


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## Bananatron (Jan 18, 2021)

I don't think the idea outlined by sags in the op is a conspiracy theory at all. It's always seemed like the most likely scenario. China's draconian lockdown was less about the danger of the virus and more about trying to cover up a massive **** up and embarrassment on a global scale. 

Side note, why is the lab scenario considered a conspiracy theory while the bat/pangolin/wet market theory is simply accepted? As far as I know neither theory has been proven nor disproven.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Bananatron said:


> I don't think the idea outlined by sags in the op is a conspiracy theory at all. It's always seemed like the most likely scenario. China's draconian lockdown was less about the danger of the virus and more about trying to cover up a massive **** up and embarrassment on a global scale.
> 
> Side note, why is the lab scenario considered a conspiracy theory while the bat/pangolin/wet market theory is simply accepted? As far as I know neither theory has been proven nor disproven.


What definition do you have for conspiracy theory?
Mine is

a belief that some covert but influential organization is responsible for a circumstance or event.
So both sags, and the ones listed in my articles are all conspiracy theories. It's important to note that the term conspiracy theory explains the theory, but it is not a judgement on the validity of the theory.

The bat/pangolin/wet market theory is just a theory, because it lacks the conspiratal elements that would make it a conspiracy theory. 

I think that many people have accepted many theories, I think that some choose to accept the less blameful theories because the more malevolent theories are very scary.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> There is no way to link to a television interview unless it is posted online.


Yes there is, several in fact. Here is an example.








How to cite a TV show in APA Style


This article reflects the APA 7th edition guidelines. Click here for APA 6th edition guidelines. To cite an episode of a TV show in APA Style, list the




www.scribbr.com





For what it's worth, a citation is the academic worlds way to "link" to source material.


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## Numbersman61 (Jan 26, 2015)

Dr. Redfield, the former director of the CDC, says that he believes the virus originated in the lab. In my opinion, it is definitely a possibility - not just a conspiracy theory.








CNN's Sanjay Gupta breaks with his network and BACKS Wuhan lab theory


Last month, Redfield opened up in an interview with Gupta for a CNN special, saying he believes an accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology is the 'most likely' origin for the coronavirus pandemic.




www.dailymail.co.uk


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Numbersman61 said:


> Dr. Redfield, the former director of the CDC, says that he believes the virus originated in the lab. In my opinion, it is definitely a possibility - not just a conspiracy theory.


Well if it was a lab accident, no conspiracy (except the coverup)
If it was an actual covert attack launched from a lab, that is by definition a "conspiracy theory"

Just because it is a conspiracy theory (which it is), isn't a judgement on the validity of the theory.


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## afulldeck (Mar 28, 2012)

MrMatt said:


> What definition do you have for conspiracy theory?
> Mine is
> 
> a belief that some covert but influential organization is responsible for a circumstance or event.
> ...


Occam's razor is at play. What's more likely - a bat with a virus (which nobody can point to) flys&crawls 1200km to your meal plate causing this world wide plague or junior tech af&_^_-up in the lab? My money is on the latter ---- screwup.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

afulldeck said:


> Occam's razor is at play. What's more likely - a bat with a virus (which nobody can point to) flys&crawls 1200km to your meal plate causing this world wide plague or junior tech af&_^_-up in the lab? My money is on the latter ---- screwup.


I agree

Most viral strains naturally hopped from animals to humans, and very few are the result of labs accidentally releasing secretly engineered bioweapons
Occams razor is that COVID19 is the result of the natural process, because it happens all the time.
That's also why we monitor livestock for disease, and the concern with the unregulated markets is the lack of monitoring, which can lead to this.

It's normal, expected and we already take measures to catch this type of thing early. that's the simplest example.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

All options are possible:

wet market
lab accident
deliberate spread


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

gibor365 said:


> All options are possible:
> 
> wet market
> lab accident
> deliberate spread


I agree all 3 are possible.

However the simplest and most likley is the normal animal -> human jump that happens all the time.
It could have been a wet market, as that's an ideal environment for it.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

I thought everyone knew.....it was started by the same bunch that killed Kennedy, and faked the moon landing...


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## e_valley (Apr 6, 2021)

Not a fan of the Chinese government but demonizing your opponent is too old a strategy to work for this old geezer.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The Congress announced they will be holding an investigation into the origin of the virus.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/congress-is-finally-investigating-the-lab-accident-covid-19-origin-theory/2021/05/06/d7bfb0e4-aeaf-11eb-b476-c3b287e52a01_story.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=wp_opinions&utm_medium=social



US State documents revealed Chinese lab researchers were sick with COVID just before the pandemic spread in Wuhan.

Former US Secretary of State Pompeo said it was a lab leak. Former CDC head Redford said it was likely a lab leak.

Biden's Secretary of State Blinken said the Chinese are being uncooperative with investigators+.

The WHO said they were prevented from accessing all the information.

The Chinese can end the suspicion by allowing a full investigation. They appear more interested in ending all investigations.

The RCMP should be telling Canadians what was going on in the Winnipeg lab.

The government is citing the Privacy Act from disclosing what the investigation is about and why the two Chinese scientists were fired from the lab.









Privacy Act prevents explanation of why PHAC fired 2 scientists, agency head says - National | Globalnews.ca


Iain Stewart won't explain why two government scientists were fired 18 months after being escorted from Canada's highest-security laboratory.




globalnews.ca


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

I'll just leave this link here, possible origins of covid ...
WHO-convened global study of origins of SARS-CoV-2: China Part


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## Bananatron (Jan 18, 2021)

MrMatt said:


> What definition do you have for conspiracy theory?
> Mine is
> 
> a belief that some covert but influential organization is responsible for a circumstance or event.
> ...


The definition of conspiracy:
_*a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful*_

There is nothing in the theory that Sags brought forward to suggest that this was in any way planned. 

The theory of an accidental lab release is no more of a conspiracy theory than the pangolin theory. Neither theory suggests pre-planning for a desired result.

The conspiracy theory is China's efforts to hide, lie about, and cover up the accidental lab release. Nearly impossible to prove, but easy to believe.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

MrMatt said:


> I agree all 3 are possible.
> 
> However the simplest and most likley is the normal animal -> human jump that happens all the time.
> It could have been a wet market, as that's an ideal environment for it.


Exactly ! Everything is possible! People here just don't get that China has completely different mentality than West.
Just during cultural revolution , China killed 40-80+ millions of their own citizens (more than Hitler and Stalin combined), so who cares about 3K Covid victims (mostly very old and sick people) ?!

And now , from BBC report
*China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, a report says. 
unlike other major economies, it has avoided an economic recession in 2020 and is in fact estimated to see growth of 2% this year. 








Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid


A UK-based think tank says the pandemic has caused economic momentum to shift further in favour of Asia.



www.bbc.com




*


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

China doesn't seem interested in investigating where the virus started. Maybe that is because they already know.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Bananatron said:


> The definition of conspiracy:
> _*a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful*_
> 
> There is nothing in the theory that Sags brought forward to suggest that this was in any way planned.
> ...


Secretly weaponizing a virus is harmful.

Even if they accidentally made a more lethal version, accidentally releasing and covering it up is harmful.

Either one is arguably a "conspiracy theory"


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> China doesn't seem interested in investigating where the virus started. Maybe that is because they already know.


Okay Trump.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

People are welcome to believe the Chinese claims that the virus origin was from........a bat, a snake, a pangolin or exported to China from the US.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

sags said:


> China doesn't seem interested in investigating where the virus started. Maybe that is because they already know.


You bet!


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## moderator2 (Sep 20, 2017)

Please keep the thread on topic.

I moved some off topic political banter to the Politics thread. @MrMatt please try to stay on topic without the political attacks.


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## Gallop (Jan 26, 2021)

As I have no specific knowledge or expertise, I take a somewhat Bayesian approach in my mind and after reading the below and tracking the debate, I am firmly in the inadvertent lab release camp. Most striking to me is that we have apparently not found the intermediate host whereas in SARS1 and MERS it was ID’d relatively quickly. If a host is found, then I’ll likely swing back quickly. 
Nicholas Wade Piece


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## MK7GTI (Mar 4, 2019)

I thought it was widely considered now that it came from the lab? I never gave much weight to the wet market bat theory from the beginning.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MK7GTI said:


> I thought it was widely considered now that it came from the lab? I never gave much weight to the wet market bat theory from the beginning.


I think it's politically advantageous to many different parties to keep the origins unclear.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Gallop said:


> Most striking to me is that we have apparently not found the intermediate host whereas in SARS1 and MERS it was ID’d relatively quickly.


SARS linkage to its origin wasn't really established until 2017, almost 15 years after the outbreak.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

MK7GTI said:


> I thought it was widely considered now that it came from the lab? I never gave much weight to the wet market bat theory from the beginning.


That was the original assessment......more or less, from the WHO investigation, but they have walked it back a bit to say there needs to be more study because they didn't have access to all the data or researchers who worked there at the time. At best the WHO investigation created more questions than answers.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

sags said:


> That was the original assessment......more or less, from the WHO investigation


Here are the current WHO investigation results, (special note to the last line)

_The team assessed the relative likelihood of these pathways and prioritized
further studies that would potentially increase knowledge and understanding globally.
The joint team’s assessment of likelihood of each possible pathway was as follows:
• direct zoonotic spillover is considered to be a possible-to-likely pathway;
• introduction through an intermediate host is considered to be a likely to very likely pathway;
• introduction through cold/ food chain products is considered a possible pathway;
• *introduction through a laboratory incident was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway.*_


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Gallop said:


> As I have no specific knowledge or expertise, I take a somewhat Bayesian approach in my mind and after reading the below and tracking the debate, I am firmly in the inadvertent lab release camp. Most striking to me is that we have apparently not found the intermediate host whereas in SARS1 and MERS it was ID’d relatively quickly. If a host is found, then I’ll likely swing back quickly.
> Nicholas Wade Piece


Wow......that is quite a thorough and revealing article. I think the US Congress investigation should be talking to some of the people mentioned in the article.

The timing is quite eye opening. From the funding to the experiments to the lab accident to the diversion tactics of those involved......it all binds together to make sense.

I have no doubt the COVID escaped the lab in Wuhan and I think the Americans already know that.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

cainvest said:


> Here are the current WHO investigation results, (special note to the last line)
> 
> _The team assessed the relative likelihood of these pathways and prioritized
> further studies that would potentially increase knowledge and understanding globally.
> ...


Yes that was the original findings made public in February, but WHO have walked that back in March due to the global criticism of the investigation.

I don't think WHO has much credibility left anymore. They seem content to accept China's word for everything and don't act until forced to.









Coronavirus: More work needed to rule out China lab leak theory says WHO


All possible causes of the pandemic remain on the table, says the WHO, though lab leak least likely.



www.bbc.com


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> Wow......that is quite a thorough and revealing article. I think the US Congress investigation should be talking to some of the people mentioned in the article.
> 
> The timing is quite eye opening. From the funding to the experiments to the lab accident to the diversion tactics of those involved......it all binds together to make sense.
> 
> I have no doubt the COVID escaped the lab in Wuhan and I think the Americans already know that.


While the Wuhan lab escape is possible, there is little evidence to support it.
Really what makes more sense, secret biowarfare experiement, released in the wild, like something out of a Tom Clancy novel.
Or that yet another virus simply made the animal -> human jump.

Trump and his "China Virus" conspiracies should take a nap till there is evidence to support it.

That being said, I do agree, Tam & the WHO have little credibility.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

You didn't read the article.

I was shocked to learn that the "safety deficiencies" in the Wuhan lab were that they were conducting experiments on these deadly viruses wearing a lab coat and gloves. I thought it would some kind of obscure failure to triple check the air hoses on the space suits or something.

Given that, It is surprising they got away with it for so long. It was an accident waiting to happen.

Nobody is saying the Chinese military (who actually control the lab) deliberately released the virus on the population. It is pure deflection from what actually happened to elevate it from an accident due to poor security protocols to a deliberate enhancement and release of the pathogen.

The scientists in the Wuhan lab were working totally unprotected and one of them caught the virus. They spread it around Wuhan and the rest is history.

I doubt even Tom Clancy would write a novel where the scientists in such a lab casually performed experiments on the world's deadliest viruses wearing only a lab coat and gloves. Nobody would believe that scenario. They would expect an accident while scientists were wearing a space suit and working in environmentally sealed rooms. At least, the pandemic type of movies I have seen.......that is how the accidents are imagined would somehow happen.

The Chinese top researcher....the "bat lady" publicly said that was their security protocol......so there is no denying that was the environment in that lab.

I would say there is a lot more evidence that the COVID origin was a leak from that Wuhan lab, than a natural animal to human transmission.

The Chinese have tried to prove a connection from animal to human and failed to do so. There is zero evidence of the virus originating naturally.

An animal to human transmission happens 1500 kms away from where it first appears....or it originates from within an unsecure lab conducting gain of function experiments on this very virus........only a feet away ?


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

sags said:


> Yes that was the original findings made public in February, but WHO have walked that back in March due to the global criticism of the investigation.


I don't see how they "walked that back" ... lab incident was always on the table.



sags said:


> I don't think WHO has much credibility left anymore. They seem content to accept China's word for everything and don't act until forced to.


Well you can choose to think WHO is "in on it" or whatever but there is no science backing it escaped from the lab theory so ....


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> You didn't read the article.


Yet another unsupported claim from the all knowing sags.



> I was shocked to learn that the "safety deficiencies" in the Wuhan lab were that they were conducting experiments on these deadly viruses wearing a lab coat and gloves. I thought it would some kind of obscure failure to triple check the air hoses or something.


If you're shocked, you haven't been paying attention.



> Nobody is saying the Chinese military (who actually control the lab) deliberately released the virus on the population.


Yes there are people claiming this. You might not be, but there are people making this claim.



> It is pure deflection from what actually happened to elevate it from an accident due to poor security protocols to a deliberate enhancement and release of the pathogen.


We don't know what "really happened".
Saying it was an accident might very well be deflection from what actually happened.

or the whole wuhan lab thing is being pushed because people will be very scared if they think something like COVID19 can happen naturally (which it does)
To think about it, it's kind of terrifying that nature can come up with a virus that can run wild across the world sickening and killing millions. Many people would be much happier thinking "oh this was just some evil scientists in a secret lab"



> The scientists in the Wuhan lab were working totally unprotected and one of them caught the virus. They spread it around Wuhan and the rest is history.


that is one theory.



> I doubt even Tom Clancy would write a novel where the scientists in such a lab casually performed experiments on the world's deadliest viruses wearing only a lab coat and gloves. Nobody would believe that scenario.


You clearly haven't read many Tom Clancy books.



> At least, the pandemic type of movies I have seen.......that is how the accidents are imagined would somehow happen.


Movies? Read a book



> I would say there is a lot more evidence that the COVID origin was a leak from that Wuhan lab, than a natural animal to human transmission.
> 
> The Chinese have tried to prove a connection from animal to human and failed to do so. There is zero evidence of the virus originating naturally.


No evidence, except it's very common to have viruses go from animals to humans.
And that experts have been raising concerns about this for decades.

Do you really think they spend millions monitoring for swine flu to protect the bacon supply? No it's because they KNOW another swine flu could jump at any time.


The simplest explanation is that this pandemic, like every other pandemic in history is from a naturally occuring source.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

MrMatt said:


> The simplest explanation is that this pandemic, like every other pandemic in history is from a naturally occuring source.


Exactly, there are even many examples of covid jumping from humans to animals and from animals to humans since this began. What's so hard to believe?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

cainvest said:


> Exactly, there are even many examples of covid jumping from humans to animals and from animals to humans since this began. What's so hard to believe?


I think some people would prefer that it is the work of people, and if we just give governments more power, then can stop all these bad things from happening.


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## Gallop (Jan 26, 2021)

This is the type of analysis (link below) I would have thought would have been available by now. As I said earlier, when/if something like this shows up, it will tip the scales for me. With all the fast sequencing ability we have now one would have thought it would be “easy”
SARS1 path
I am open to the frozen food as carrier path as I think that’s how a case got into NZ.
If I had to rank:
1) accidental lab release (65%)
2) really bad luck low probability frozen food transmission from some other location (15%)
3) local zoonotic (15%)
4) other sci-fi-ish (5%)


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Gallop said:


> With all the fast sequencing ability we have now one would have thought it would be “easy”


Not sure why you'd think it is easy, transfer evidence can disappear fast. All it takes is a mutation in one animal that transfers to one human and if that single animal is not found ... well, that's it. 

From your link,
_However, the number of species in which the virus can replicate indicates that SARS-CoV is *capable of efficient zoonotic transmission.* _



Gallop said:


> I am open to the frozen food as carrier path as I think that’s how a case got into NZ.
> If I had to rank:
> 1) accidental lab release (65%)
> 2) really bad luck low probability frozen food transmission from some other location (15%)
> ...


Given the above information I have no idea how you came up with your numbers above.


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## Gallop (Jan 26, 2021)

Well it’s pretty simple:
The hypothesis that a single or small number of bats gave it to a single or small number of people, and that none of these primary or intermediate hosts have yet to be identified and that it seems more unlikely than likely that it didn’t start spreading in the market has a lower likelihood of being true than: 
people playing with bat viruses in a lab at the epicenter of the outbreak and they used level 2 protocols (not level 4) and that other escapes have happened from level4 labs, and that there are players involved with conflicts of interest that would seek to minimize the risks, and that it seems perfectly plausible that a lab tech could get infected and not know for days.
As I said earlier, I don’t really care either way, this is just how I’ve weighed it out in my mind. I started off at “of course it was a pangolin in the wet market” but I have shifted.


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## e_valley (Apr 6, 2021)

sags said:


> People are welcome to believe the Chinese claims that the virus origin was from........a bat, a snake, a pangolin or exported to China from the US.


All I see is "propaganda" vs "propaganda" - difficult to find a referee these days ...


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Gallop said:


> This is the type of analysis (link below) I would have thought would have been available by now. As I said earlier, when/if something like this shows up, it will tip the scales for me. With all the fast sequencing ability we have now one would have thought it would be “easy”
> SARS1 path
> I am open to the frozen food as carrier path as I think that’s how a case got into NZ.
> If I had to rank:
> ...


If I had to rank, nearly 100% of human viruses are animal-human, or mutuations of existing human viruses.

That being the case I'd say >90%+ zoonotic, and less than 10% engineered, and that's only because I do believe that China is actually doing bioweapons research.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

In the previous SARS outbreaks the initial animal to human infection created local outbreaks.

That is why the government/health protocol is to "lock down" the immediate area trying to prevent the spread of the virus.

In this case, the Chinese didn't lock down Guangdong Province where the bats reside and the supposed initial infection took place, but locked down Wuhan instead......some 1500 kms away.

That is like having an outbreak start in Ontario and locking down Saskatchewan. I think the Chinese knew the origin of the virus and locked down Wuhan.

It is baffling to me that people ignore all the circumstantial evidence of a lab leak but accept a natural animal to human transmission theory, despite it being unlike any previous SARS infection outbreaks.

Then there is the funding and political statements of those involved, which have been openly challenged by experts and left un-defended.

I also trust the Wuhan security protocols aren't being used in labs like the Canadian lab in Winnipeg.

Citizens might well demand their governments cease all such experiments, and that makes discovery of the origin highly political in nature.

To prevent similar outbreaks in the future, and possibly even more dangerous ones, scientists need to know the origin of this one.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

There is still the RCMP investigation into the 2 scientists and their students being walked out of the Winnipeg lab and eventually terminated by the lab and set adrift by the University of Manitoba.

I think Canadians have a right to know what the investigation is about and the results, but all reporters are getting is refusals citing the Privacy Act.

What is the connection between those 2 Chinese scientists and the lab in Wuhan they were visiting regularly and delivering 'samples" of deadly viruses ?

An even better question is what were Chinese nationals doing working in Canada's top level lab while still connected to the Chinese military lab in Wuhan.

Why isn't the loyal Opposition asking the Liberal government these questions ? They demand information on everything else.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> It is baffling to me that people ignore all the circumstantial evidence of a lab leak but accept a natural animal to human transmission theory, despite it being unlike any previous SARS infection outbreaks.


Not ignoring it.
I agree it is possible, but circumstantial evidence isn't good enough for me.



> I also trust the Wuhan security protocols aren't being used in labs like the Canadian lab in Winnipeg.


Bit racist?



> Citizens might well demand their governments cease all such experiments, and that makes discovery of the origin highly political in nature.


Many countries already do



> To prevent similar outbreaks in the future, and possibly even more dangerous ones, scientists need to know the origin of this one.


Yes, we should keep working on confirming the source.
And watching for the next pandemic.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

sags said:


> There is still the RCMP investigation into the 2 scientists and their students being walked out of the Winnipeg lab and eventually terminated by the lab and set adrift by the University of Manitoba.
> 
> I think Canadians have a right to know what the investigation is about and the results, but all reporters are getting is refusals citing the Privacy Act.


Yeah, this is a very interesting story. The fact that foreign scientists working in Winnipeg's micro biology lab were stealing samples and sending them out of the country.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Yeah, this is a very interesting story. The fact that foreign scientists working in Winnipeg's micro biology lab were stealing samples and sending them out of the country.


It's been going on for years.
Many countries are still pretty openly murdering their opponents.

I'm sure many of them are working on bioweapons.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

For all I know, humans may be the biggest virus to all the viruses on this planet.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Beaver101 said:


> For all I know, humans may be the biggest virus to all the viruses on this planet.


Humans are animals, not viruses.
Really you need to learn the meaning of words


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

MrMatt said:


> Humans are animals, not viruses.
> Really you need to learn the meaning of words


 ... you need to expand your 'imagination? (for lack of a better word)' than stick with the conventional by-the-book reading/definitions.

For your sake, rephrasing my post:


> For all I know, humans may be the biggest alien to viruses on this planet.


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## Canadiangal (May 12, 2021)

sags said:


> I recently watched an interview with a world renowned expert on where virus originate and he made some interesting observations on the COVID.
> 
> 1) The theory the virus originated with bats infecting someone and that person spreading the virus has problems. The person infected would have been 1200 kms away from the city of Wuhan when he encountered the bats. He then would have traveled the 1200 kms to Wuhan and spread the virus. Yet.....there was no infection outbreak in the area where the bats live. There was nobody contracting the virus along the journey to Wuhan. The outbreak started in Wuhan.
> 
> ...


I read a Chinese scientist in our Canada, leaked it to someone in whuhan. So, who knows?? I've never heard so much about the "Fake News" as I have in the past 4yrs . Sometimes it's just so hard to know what to believe. Stick with your most trusted resource and all we can do is prey!!


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## Gallop (Jan 26, 2021)

It’s been a string month for lab leak speculation:
Updating my ranked list:
1) accidental lab release (75%)
2) really bad luck low probability frozen food transmission from some other location (10%)
3) local zoonotic (10%)
4) other sci-fi-ish (5%)









The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins


Throughout 2020, the notion that the novel coronavirus leaked from a lab was off-limits. Those who dared to push for transparency say toxic politics and hidden agendas kept us in the dark.




www.vanityfair.com


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I think with the release of the Fauci and other scientists emails........the probability of a lab leak and massive coverup is hitting about 99% now.

The remaining 1% can be divided up by the other possibilities. The media has found the smoking gun.


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## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

Sidney Powell found the smoking gun too. Look how that panned out.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Interesting developments about the lab in Winnipeg.

The investigation is being headed by the serious crimes and national security division of the RCMP.

The investigation has been moved from an administration problem to one involving national security.

One of the students brought to the lab by the Chinese researchers is a member of the PLA military of China.

Why were they allowed to even be in the top level lab and allowed to send Ebola and other deadly pathogens out of the lab ?

Why haven't charges been laid yet ? Perhaps this is the reason.

_"This would also explain why you haven't charged them, because once you charge them, then eventually you have to put people on trial. And when you put people on trial, then you have to disclose the evidence that you have. So the government might quite intentionally be trying to keep this sort of relatively below the radar as much as it can," he said. _



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-lab-security-experts-1.6059097


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Personally, if I lived in Winnipeg anywhere near that lab I would be moving further away.

It's a big lab doing some things neighbours would probably not want to know about........



https://www.google.com/maps/uv?pb=!1s0x52ea73db275f139f%3A0xf90cd34b797b3fd0!3m1!7e115!4s%2Fmaps%2Fplace%2Fnational%2Bmicrobiological%2Blaboratory%2Bwinnipeg%2F%4049.9089293%2C-97.1643572%2C3a%2C75y%2C117.05h%2C90t%2Fdata%3D*213m4*211e1*213m2*211siOyDhGFwyQulb6gC8OuNbw*212e0*214m2*213m1*211s0x52ea73db275f139f%3A0xf90cd34b797b3fd0%3Fsa%3DX!5snational%20microbiological%20laboratory%20winnipeg%20-%20Google%20Search!15sCgIgAQ&imagekey=!1e2!2siOyDhGFwyQulb6gC8OuNbw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwivxLnP0Y3xAhXVLc0KHVRsBZwQpx8wJnoECFAQCA


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

sags said:


> Interesting developments about the lab in Winnipeg.
> 
> The investigation is being headed by the serious crimes and national security division of the RCMP.
> 
> ...


I'm amazed! This is just WOW! Political correctness is going to destroy this country!


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## Gallop (Jan 26, 2021)

Interesting new article re:lab leak hypothesis.








COVID-19 Origins: Investigating a “Complex and Grave Situation” Inside a Wuhan Lab


The Wuhan lab at the center of suspicions about the pandemic’s onset was far more troubled than known, documents unearthed by a Senate team reveal. Tracing the evidence, Vanity Fair and ProPublica give the clearest view yet of a biocomplex in crisis.




www.propublica.org




TLDR : U.S. Senate Committee concludes that the COVID-19 pandemic was “more likely than not, the result of a research-related incident.”
Looks like the latest zoonotic paper in the news has had its edges sanded off between pre-print and peer review too.

I would update my unscientific Bayesian mental probability model based on above:
1) accidental lab release (80%)
2) local zoonotic (18%)
3) really bad luck low probability frozen food transmission from some other location (1%)
4) other sci-fi-ish (1%)


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Interesting to look back at the first posts in this thread and how some posters responded.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Another world mystery!


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## Gallop (Jan 26, 2021)

And maybe another Bayesian revision…
Apparently there’s a great hullabaloo about the quality of translation and interpretation done by the authors and their subject matter resources.
Have dialed it back again to 70% likely…


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Gallop said:


> Interesting new article re:lab leak hypothesis.


There are at least two high profile journalists (one of them is very respectable) who've done some digging, talked to many experts in the field, and also wrote about how it really looks like SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab.

Note however, that doesn't mean it was engineered maliciously as a bio weapon. They're just saying that it looks like it may have escaped / leaked by accident while other research was being done.

There are even universities in the US doing genetic engineering experiments on SARS-CoV-2. Boston University recently spliced the genes of Omicron with the Wuhan strain and created a version of Omicron that's far more deadly. The American researchers created a version of Covid that has the extreme infectiousness of Omicron combined with the extreme lethality of the original / wild type. *That's more dangerous than anything circulating today*. If something like that escapes the Boston lab, that could be similar to the scenario that happened in China --- so the Americans do this stuff too.

Personally I believe there is 90% chance that Covid escaped from a Wuhan lab, and 10% chance it was a product of natural evolution.

But it's very hard for America or Europe to criticize the Chinese, when their own labs are doing the same kind of work, and could just as easily leak one of their own creations into the world. I really think everyone on the planet should keep N95 masks at home, because it seems likely that this won't be the only virus escaping from a lab in our lifetimes.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

A lab as the source is probable for sure and could have been accidently released through a ventilation system and out side or even entered workers system and off it went to the world.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Possibly. So much for bio-hazards "control" - what's that? Plus the more we humans screw around with mother nature, the more payback we humans are gonna to get.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

As we circle to where the Trump haters are now taking his position on this, and many other issues, I'll just remind people that truth is stranger than fiction.

Also my book recommendation still stands.
As a note Tom Clancy was writing about Al Qaeda and others before they were a mainstream thing.

I really think people need to read more, fiction, non fiction, doesn't matter. People need to practice thinking about complex situations.. we're turning into a Fahrenheit 451 world with the attention span of a 10 second video clip.



MrMatt said:


> I'm not saying I believe it, but it sounds like a really good China-Cold-War spy novel plot. Fortunately someone already wrote that book in '96.
> Maybe just read Executive Orders by Tom Clancy, which uses weaponized ebola, and they have martial law and all sorts of wonderful things. Warning it is an 874 page book, but I think it was actually written by Tom Clancy, so it's better than the later ghostwritten books.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

newfoundlander61 said:


> A lab as the source is probable for sure and could have been accidently released through a ventilation system and out side or even entered workers system and off it went to the world.


Possible.. but we've been watching for Animal Coronavirus to human jumps quite heavily for several years as it was predicted as a significant risk.
While animal flu-s are well known, the concern was that we weren't watching Coronaviruses as much, despite SARS, MERS & others.

Nobody really bats an eye about animal flus making the jump, and we (or at least I) don't/didn't even really think about Chicken-Pox as an animal virus that made the jump.


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