# Is now a good time to buy Oil & Gold?



## Bonzo86 (Mar 7, 2012)

With the first significant drop in the market of 2012 because of Greece/China/Iran fears, is anyone considering adding to their gold or oil stock positions?

Personally, I don't have a position in gold but am thinking I should have at least some in my portfolio.

As for oil, I love it. I have some Suncor and would like to but more on this dip. I am thinking the Iran tension might be good for the stock but the Greece/China talk not so much.

Just wondering what the experts thought? Is anybody considering trimming positions in other stocks to add to gold, oil, or something else?


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I sold my Suncor a week ago at $36.42.

I'd like to get back in, but I'm not sure if this is the right time.

I think if it were to hit $32ish, I would be in.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Bought some K this morning as gold stocks seem cheap but they could go into a final frenzy down before a huge rally.


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

dogcom: when you look at the ten year chart for G and K for example please explain your choice of K . And where will this 'huge rally' come from? And what about the 'frenzy" ? What are its sources? Thanks.


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

I bought a little IGT (Ishares gold ETF) today. The commodity seems much more stable than the stocks and this seems to be one of the best vehicles to hold gold.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Not interested in gold....it doesn't pay me anything to hold it.

But would be interested in SU at a lower price


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## Mike59 (May 22, 2010)

Bonzo86 said:


> Just wondering what the experts thought? Is anybody considering trimming positions in other stocks to add to gold, oil, or something else?


Yes, this is a great time in my opinion to accumulate. The fundamentals that have supported gold's rise since the early 2000's are just as strong now, if not stronger. I don't care much for oil , as precious metals are exceeding the return over other commodities during their bull market run. Gold and silver will more than account for the rise, and overshoot. 

I prefer exposure to physical (real bullion, or closed ends like SVR.UN or CEF.A) as the core of my portfolio, these holdings have been at least 25% of my entire portfolio for awhile now, but I'm sitting on it waiting for the economic end game (with a tin foil hat, ammo, food stores etc. ) 

I've come to enjoy trading gold equities on the side. Gold stocks are like a caged animal when they start moving, and you can double or triple your money in a few short months, but it takes patience. You have to be careful though and have a strong stomach, as it's an elevator drop to the bottom if they crash. I've learned to buy the pullbacks and treat it like a bargain. I'm loading up on junior miners via the ETF (ZJG), but consider this a relatively short term trade (inside 2 years, maybe less) once they have a powerful rally. Use the XAU:Gold or HUI:Gold ratios to judge the value of gold stocks relative to bullion.


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

Mike said:


> I prefer exposure to physical (real bullion, or closed ends like SVR.UN or CEF.A) as the core of my portfolio, these holdings have been at least 25% of my entire portfolio for awhile now, but I'm sitting on it waiting for the economic end game (with a tin foil hat, ammo, food stores etc. )
> 
> 
> Hi Mike, Can advise where do you get your bulk gold from?
> ...


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i just did a calculation on the cost of buying MNT which has a value of 18.27 per ETR which equals $1827.00 worth of gold and costs $1949.00 plus say a $10 commision for a total of $1959.00 for $1827.00 worth of gold which is a premium of 6.8% over the value of the gold

you can buy a 1-ounce maple at bordergold for $1,743.00 which is a 3.5% premium over spot

it's true that the MNT is somewhat more liquid but bordergold will buy the maple back for $1677.00 which is only $66.00 less than the selling price

if you are in for the long haul, it seems to me to make a good case for buying physical where you eliminate a lot of the risks of owning a piece of paper that stands for the gold vs. the gold itself (this assumes you are a little guy and aren't going to buy 500 ounces or something)

as to whether this is better than gold equities or not buying gold at all, i have no idea ... i wish i did


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Dogleg Barrick and Goldcorp is a better choice but K I think has been driven down much harder then I think it should have so I am looking possibly for more bang here. The huge rally will be gold stocks catching up to the price of gold.

The selling frenzy would come when stocks sell off hard and oil drops like a rock while gold holds its own. Then when the dust settles everyone will see the costs of digging the gold has gone way down and the gold price held steady so rally time for gold stocks. If the central banks print their asses off then costs will go up but the price off gold skyrockets and mining shares will climb from this.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

Personally I like pipelines. I bought Atlas at around $10 in mid 2010 and it's now over $36- great return in less than 2 years.


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## Bonzo86 (Mar 7, 2012)

I ended up adding some Suncor to my existing position and took the plunge and bought gold. (CEF.A). Gold now makes up 9% of my portfolio so I guess I am little more balanced now. I am a long term (almost all blue chip dividend company) guy and still prefer the stocks but figured I should have at least some gold just in case.


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

Dogcom: I have thought about your reasons as you explain them. There are many variables when it comes to gold and oil . I invest in oil and have made money ; also I have invested in gold for a number of years but it is a volatile game. For example I have bought and sold Goldcorp from $23.00 on up (and down) and done well but there are many traps along the way to consider. It isn't as simple as just 'printing press' issues that affect it, so it is a game that requires much study. At least that is my experience. Anyway good luck.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Great time for oil - hard to believe at $105+/barrel, and oil companies are trading like its still at $80. Buy.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

doctrine said:


> Great time for oil - hard to believe at $105+/barrel, and oil companies are trading like its still at $80. Buy.


doctrine. I am 100% agreement. Plus, summer is right around the corner, so don't expect oil prices to decrease at all.


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## canadianbanks (Jun 5, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Bought some K this morning as gold stocks seem cheap but they could go into a final frenzy down before a huge rally.



I don't think Kinross is going up by much anytime soon. In 2-3 years maybe or if there's a huge blow-off in Gold (probably $2,500+) but this doesn't seem likely at this point.


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## alphatrader2000 (Aug 18, 2010)

One thing to mention about gold. Juniors are not following the price. Something to think about!


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Not just juniors... All gold companies.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

That's because costs to mine are rising, and people aren't necessarily convinced gold will stay at $1600. Gold is nice, but everyone needs oil to live, which is why I'd rather own oil than gold.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Would rather have one ounce of gold in my basement than sixteen barrels of oil.


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

Argonaut said:


> Would rather have one ounce of gold in my basement than sixteen barrels of oil.


i wonder if you can power your car with a silver bar or a golden bar.
just thinking out loud here.
not criticizing you, but last friday was a blatant example of how oil is sensitive to geopolitical reasons.
nevertheless i am a silver buyer..... on weakness.
been buying oil around 105 mark without any disapointment.


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## Bonzo86 (Mar 7, 2012)

I ended up buying my first non dividend stock in CEF/A back in March. It was down quite a bit until recently. Now, I am almost back to 0 on that position. After watching it fluctuate daily I have decided I want out. I would rather have that money in something more stable that pays me a dividend regardless. My question now is whether it is a good time to SELL gold? It is up on the speculation that easing is coming but who knows whether it really is and when that will be. I am finding that gold is a little unpredictable. Do you think it will keep going up or should I get out now and add to my boring (but consistent) dividend stocks?


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

If the global outlook is inflationary - it bodes well for gold & oil. But if deflationary, then oil will be down BUT gold will still be up strongly, especially in the early phase of deflation.


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