# Insane Ontario housing market



## Flugzeug (Aug 15, 2018)

So if there was an award for the worst timing in the history of real estate, maybe I would win.

Sold my house in March last year to move to BC. House was in Barrie Ontario, we sold for $670k. A few houses down on the same street, same layout, smaller lot. Listed last week at $779k, sold for $850k with 50 offers.

So had we moved now, instead of last year, we would have made an extra 200k. Turns out the work-from-home and quarantine era caused a lot of people to leave the GTA and move to the outskirts. 

We considered moving back to Barrie, but now it just seems ridiculous to pay these prices.

Anyone else do as poorly as me? Luckily houses in BC haven’t be on the same insane trajectory.

Can’t time these things, just have to go ahead with life, that’s what we were doing when we sold, but turned out to burn us.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

House prices for my neighbourhood comps are up around 15% over the past year (west GTA).


----------



## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

Flugzeug said:


> So if there was an award for the worst timing in the history of real estate, maybe I would win.
> 
> Sold my house in March last year to move to BC. House was in Barrie Ontario, we sold for $670k. A few houses down on the same street, same layout, smaller lot. Listed last week at $779k, sold for $850k with 50 offers.
> 
> ...


We missed out on about the same amount. Our neighbours listed in May 2017 and sold within days, we listed in sept 2017. Dropped our price about $200k until we sold in January 2018. Got caught up in the new lending legislation that year.


----------



## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

You sell high, you buy high. Sell low, buy low. Can't get the best of both worlds.

Did you buy a property last year in BC? If you did, the BC has increase just as much so you will definitely make a profit to be able to move back to Barrie.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Sold my last rental property in January 2020. Put it on the market in the fall of 2019 for a low price not wanting to keep it all winter. Glad to be out of the rental business and I hope the buyer is happy. Am doing OK in the stock market now and don't miss real estate at all.
I have a long record of buying when the market is high and selling too soon. Lost money on a few deals but made money too so, I guess I wound up OK. It doesn't pay to worry about such things, learn a lesson and move on. One lesson it took a long time to learn, you get a good deal on a good property you can usually sell for a good profit right away. Don't do it, those are the ones you should hang onto. If you get a stinker they stick to your fingers like a tar stain on a white shirt and take forever to sell, those are the ones you need to sell even at a loss if they are dragging you down.


----------



## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

I am sitting where I am and not moving soon. I am about 5 years or less from retirement. Bonds are no great returns now but I do want less volatility than all equities going forward. I do see a place coming in about 5 years to invest in a private pool to invest in second mortgages or other alternative investments. 

Gobs of people are buying houses now that have no idea that mortgage rates can indeed rise in the future.

Say inflation starts to take off, BOC cranks overnight rate, 5yr bond yields start to rise, and bingo, mortgage renewal interest rates will go up too. 

Then the price of real estate is likely to soften. So likely to see a ream seeking second mortgages so they can try to keep hold of the place that they are under water in. If it gets bad enough buying syndicates who dress up and resell bank repo'd houses can work well for the investor as well. 

Sorry if I come off as a vulture circling, but all is not going to end up gum drops and lolly pops with this bonky FOMO gotta get a house spree we are presently in. I can remember 1982 and mortgage renewals at 18% for a 5 year rate.


----------



## Flugzeug (Aug 15, 2018)

Mortgage u/w said:


> You sell high, you buy high. Sell low, buy low. Can't get the best of both worlds.
> 
> Did you buy a property last year in BC? If you did, the BC has increase just as much so you will definitely make a profit to be able to move back to Barrie.


We did not buy in BC, still narrowing down areas. We can afford to move back to Barrie, just amazed at the demand now. We bought 6 years ago and had an increase of about 60%. So to see it increase at almost 30% in less than a year is crazy.


----------



## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I am selling next month in GTA but moving where I can buy same home priced for 50% of the cost.


----------



## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

I 


Flugzeug said:


> We did not buy in BC, still narrowing down areas. We can afford to move back to Barrie, just amazed at the demand now. We bought 6 years ago and had an increase of about 60%. So to see it increase at almost 30% in less than a year is crazy.


i hear you. 
hey, at least you benefited from a gain of 60%!
Consider you only gained 30%🤣


----------



## Juggernaut92 (Aug 9, 2020)

That sucks. With this whole pandemic I felt like prices were going to go down but that did not happen. Shows how crazy the housing market can be. I am kind of looking for my first property on the outskirts of GTA. Barrie is too far for me but its nice to know the prices around that area.


----------



## peterk (May 16, 2010)

It might just be the beginning of more housing inflation... Average age right now of the millennial cohort is ~32. They (we  ) were just about to move out of our apartments and into houses anyways based on demographics. The abrupt cancellation of vacations and dinners out has really accelerated this plan and diverted effort/funds into home buying instead. Add in that public transportation is now Corona suicide and there will be more cars purchased, meaning more garages needed and access to suburbs granted.


----------



## afulldeck (Mar 28, 2012)

peterk said:


> It might just be the beginning of more housing inflation... Average age right now of the millennial cohort is ~32. They (we  ) were just about to move out of our apartments and into houses anyways based on demographics. The abrupt cancellation of vacations and dinners out has really accelerated this plan and diverted effort/funds into home buying instead. Add in that public transportation is now Corona suicide and there will be more cars purchased, meaning more garages needed and access to suburbs granted.


If this is the case, your falling into the arms of aging Boomer's need to get out of the single asset in time for retirement. That newly bought house might flatline or worse for many years after. Better make sure its the right one.


----------



## peterk (May 16, 2010)

afulldeck said:


> If this is the case, your falling into the arms of aging Boomer's need to get out of the single asset in time for retirement. That newly bought house might flatline or worse for many years after. Better make sure its the right one.


How many Boomers will actually "get out" of their house prematurely though? A tiny percentage, I think. Downgrading will be minimal. They won't go until forced in their 80s by poor health, or death.

They might even double down and go buy a vacation property while keeping their main house. And they will continue holding on to their rental properties as well for retirement income and hobby/work during retirement.


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

I agree with you, peterk. By the time the boomers unload their houses, millennials will be in their late 40's to near 60 years old. If they had planned on starting a family, it will likely be too late.

BC and Vancouver in particular may not be as hot as Ontario is at the moment, but we're back to seeing bidding wars here in the Fraser Valley. It's really annoying, because I was just getting my ducks in a row to hopefully get into the market.

How do you make any kind of plan when the goal posts keep moving? Maybe my mistake is trying to plan at all... I should just go "all in" and let the chips fall where they may. That would be irresponsible, of course, but who is responsible nowadays? Certainly not the government or the BOC, let alone regular people.


----------



## afulldeck (Mar 28, 2012)

peterk said:


> How many Boomers will actually "get out" of their house prematurely though? A tiny percentage, I think. Downgrading will be minimal. They won't go until forced in their 80s by poor health, or death.
> 
> They might even double down and go buy a vacation property while keeping their main house. And they will continue holding on to their rental properties as well for retirement income and hobby/work during retirement.


You maybe right. But what the heck are they living on? Canada has been reporting that most Boomers have no retirement saving. Their house is their retirement. If that is the case, how are they managing? And how can they be buying additional properties?


----------



## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

afulldeck said:


> You maybe right. But what the heck are they living on? Canada has been reporting that most Boomers have no retirement saving. Their house is their retirement. If that is the case, how are they managing? And how can they be buying additional properties?


Reverse mortgages.









The pandemic housing craze is fuelling another boom: reverse mortgages - National | Globalnews.ca


Low interest rates and soaring home prices are driving new demand for reverse mortgages, lenders say.




globalnews.ca


----------



## peterk (May 16, 2010)

afulldeck said:


> You maybe right. But what the heck are they living on? Canada has been reporting that most Boomers have no retirement saving. Their house is their retirement. If that is the case, how are they managing? And how can they be buying additional properties?


I'm sure they're out there, but I don't know of any boomers who are poor. The ones I know who are "poor" still have their small detached home paid off, and live off of some sort of small pension just fine. Most are richer than this. Lots have more than one property, larger pensions, and portfolios. They are also presently receiving inheritances (more real estate) from their WWII generation parents.


----------



## l1quidfinance (Mar 17, 2017)

It's getting hard to understand how this can be sustained in any way now. Perhaps the real start of serious inflation. We just sold for $260k more than we were valued at just before the pandemic began. We purchased a reno in another province last October but we dont get to run away with all the cash either as building costs are going quite literally through the roof at the minute. If you've been to Home depot and picked up a 2x4 lately you will be only too aware of the insanity. Although the end result will be mortgage free so I thank Ontario for that.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

50-100 year mortgage amortizations incoming........


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

peterk said:


> It might just be the beginning of more housing inflation... Average age right now of the millennial cohort is ~32. They (we  ) were just about to move out of our apartments and into houses anyways based on demographics.


And exactly what money are we supposed to use, to buy these 500k or 800k homes? I suppose, our typical jobs where we earn 200k/year right?

(I wonder what this chart would look like if it included 2020)










This isn't just a question of "stages of life" or demographics, as if one automatically moves to larger homes. There's also this little issue called money.



nathan79 said:


> If they had planned on starting a family, it will likely be too late.


A house is not a prerequisite for starting a family. Europeans and most other people around the world have families in smaller homes & apartments.


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

james4beach said:


> A house is not a prerequisite for starting a family. Europeans and most other people around the world have families in smaller homes & apartments.


That's true, a house is more of a lifestyle decision. Unfortunately, there's a lack of supply of 2 and 3 bedroom apartments. And the ones that are for sale aren't exactly affordable either.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

nathan79 said:


> That's true, a house is more of a lifestyle decision. Unfortunately, there's a lack of supply of 2 and 3 bedroom apartments. And the ones that are for sale aren't exactly affordable either.


Ouch, didn't realize that. How about renting... can one find a 3 bdrm apartment these days in Vancouver?

A few months ago I looked at one and two bedroom apartments, and they were plentiful (renting).


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Ouch, didn't realize that. How about renting... can one find a 3 bdrm apartment these days in Vancouver?
> 
> A few months ago I looked at one and two bedroom apartments, and they were plentiful (renting).


Yeah, I think you'd definitely have a better shot renting than buying. I haven't looked recently though.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Sometimes in my fantasies, interest rates go up to 6%, home prices crash, and then the entire economy crashes since Canada isn't much more than a house-flipping / renovation / financing economy.

And then once we flush out the excesses, any of us who actually had savings takes advantage of that deflation to buy homes for ourselves.


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Sometimes in my fantasies, interest rates go up to 6%, home prices crash, and then the entire economy crashes since Canada isn't much more than a house-flipping / renovation / financing economy.
> 
> And then once we flush out the excesses, any of us who actually had savings takes advantage of that deflation to buy homes for ourselves.


Same. I'd vote for whichever party puts that in their election platform. 

I've had a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting for the correction that never came. I've started to put my cash into equities, so now I'm sure those will correct.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Sometimes in my fantasies, interest rates go up to 6%, home prices crash, and then the entire economy crashes since Canada isn't much more than a house-flipping / renovation / financing economy.
> 
> And then once we flush out the excesses, any of us who actually had savings takes advantage of that deflation to buy homes for ourselves.


Unfortunately, I don't think that is going to happen.

I am trying more realistic scenarios. I have a theory that 2-3 years from now, interest rates will probably get back to 2.5-3%. Work from home will be reduced significantly from what it is now, even if it is still more than pre-COVID. And all these people who bought homes outside the city or sold their condos will realize how nasty traffic can be. There are no more roads and more people than ever have piled into the suburbs and even rural areas. Houses are still being built. But roads aren't. And there isn't good transit in most of those places, and many people have been turned off it anyway because of COVID. Packed buses are miserable.

So in 2-3 years, you will have potentially millions of Canadians paying higher interest rates on expensive overpriced houses to have to drive to work in miserable multi-hour commuting nightmares. It's almost certain to happen to a large portion of the population. I'm hoping that will take some heat off these home prices. Not 50%, but maybe 25%. And then I'll be ready to buy from one of these miserable families.


----------



## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

doctrine said:


> Work from home will be reduced significantly from what it is now, even if it is still more than pre-COVID. And all these people who bought homes outside the city or sold their condos will realize how nasty traffic can be.


I'm still clueless about this. I've worked at two different places throughout the pandemic and polls were saying that most people would go back to the office only 2 days a week.

Me and my spouse really enjoy socializing when going to the office but then when working from home we each save at least 2 hours a day of preparation and commuting. That's nearly 10% of our awake time, so it's significant and very appreciated.

Our last opinion about this is that we would actually go to the office only once a week, the Thursday, for socializing and [email protected]

The only issue we see while working from home and living in the city is the lack of space in our home to work. We just did huge renovations to optimize our space and have an open area. And then the pandemic hit and now we are still unsure where to put both of our work desks to integrate them properly in our living space.

Still, we wouldn't move out of the city as we enjoy the convenience of having everything at a walking distance. We chose the city due to the lifestyle. Those who chose the city for the proximity to work will move out as they can now work from home most of the time. As for ourselves, we would actually love to see more cafes and such appear in our neighborhood as people work from home and will be looking for places to go for lunch.


----------



## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

nathan79 said:


> Yeah, I think you'd definitely have a better shot renting than buying. I haven't looked recently though.


I know little about rent, but my friend owns a rental in Toronto. I think it’s one of those older homes with like a 20 foot lot. He gets $6200 from 3 tenants. Aside from saving for the down payment, buying might still be better. A family could buy that home and still have one renter bringing in approx $2000 month.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> I'm still clueless about this. I've worked at two different places throughout the pandemic and polls were saying that most people would go back to the office only 2 days a week.
> 
> Me and my spouse really enjoy socializing when going to the office but then when working from home we each save at least 2 hours a day of preparation and commuting. That's nearly 10% of our awake time, so it's significant and very appreciated.


If you are your own employer, fine. However, employers define the rules, not employees. While there are people being effective from home, I have seen little evidence that people are in reality more productive, even if they like it more. It takes a lot more time to do everything. It is much more difficult to tackle multiple problems with different groups in short order. Competitive pressures are going to mean that more committed employees who are working in close teams are going to respond faster and win more business. And for government workers, I know for a fact that productivity is way down. In many cases to near zero. Just wait until a few years from now when hiring freezes or cuts come into effect. That will also drive management to force more people to come in to work.

Sure, people like working from home. But the vast majority of people are employees and I believe that the majority of work is going to return to the office. I have seen plenty of evidence that while working from home is better than shutting down, it is not better than working in dedicated spaces. Personal interaction gets work done. A significant portion of remote work is dependent on pre-existing relationships that are already fraying and becoming distant and are non-existent for newer employees.


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

doctrine said:


> Personal interaction gets work done. A significant portion of remote work is dependent on pre-existing relationships that are already fraying and becoming distant and are non-existent for newer employees.


I agree. I was already working from home when the pandemic started, but my business relationships were with people I knew very well. And I had been keeping those relationships fresh with in person visits, dropping into an office, social/casual interactions.

Now more than 12 months since the last in person meetings (probably more like 15 months for me) I'm starting to feel some distance growing between us. For the project I manage, although I still think the team is efficient, I'm sensing a drop in sync. In normal times this would be such an easy thing to address by just flying over to hang out with the team.

The phone calls & video chats are great, but nothing can replace the personal interactions.


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

The other factor that will affect traffic, when this Covid thing is behind us, is a lot of people who use to take public transit, bought themselves a car during the pandemic. I can't say how many did this compared to how many people take the bus/subway but it was a surprisingly large number. I think we all know why they did this, but after Covid they will find the traffic jams might be a bigger problem then the viruses floating around on the bus...but now they own a car, so they will be gridlocked on the highway instead.


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

deleted


----------



## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

House prices are increasing in Calgary even though the unemployment rate is around 10%. People are leaving AB too. Don't know who is buying those houses.


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

Crickets from politicians and the mainstream media. All they ever talk about is COVID.

This has got to be an election issue. The Liberals' record on housing affordability has been dismal. But I doubt the Conservatives would have done much differently. They mainly represent wealthy or upper middle class home owners, while the NDP mainly represents the poor and renters. The Liberals are supposed to be representing regular people who are just trying to get ahead.

Our BOC governor Tiff Macklem apparently thinks the housing market is fine, but showing "early signs of overheating". Early signs? Has this guy had his head up his *** for the last six months? How out of touch could he possibly be? Unbelievable that we have people like that setting policy... they could care less about the average person. No wonder people are so fed up with this country.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

nathan79 said:


> Crickets from politicians and the mainstream media. All they ever talk about is COVID.
> 
> This has got to be an election issue. The Liberals' record on housing affordability has been dismal. But I doubt the Conservatives would have done much differently. They mainly represent wealthy or upper middle class home owners, while the NDP mainly represents the poor and renters. The Liberals are supposed to be representing regular people who are just trying to get ahead.
> 
> Our BOC governor Tiff Macklem apparently thinks the housing market is fine, but showing "early signs of overheating". Early signs? Has this guy had his head up his *** for the last six months? How out of touch could he possibly be? Unbelievable that we have people like that setting policy... they could care less about the average person. No wonder people are so fed up with this country.


Homeowning/wealthier older people vote. Young, poor people don't. I don't expect any policies that will hurt property values, only fillips to first time home buyers to help them stretch to own very expensive properties (to make wealthy parents feel better).


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

I'm afraid you're right, Andrew. They'll carefully tailor any policy change so that it sounds good to voters but won't actually affect prices. Politicians are experts at talking about how they're going to fix everything, while actually accomplishing nothing at all.

Talking about it _would_ be a good start, though. The complete silence from the government is actually feeding into this FOMO, as right now most people just assume nothing will change and prices will continue spiralling upwards to infinity. If they actually started discussing taking steps to cool the market, it might relieve some of the pressure as more people decide to "wait and see".

So maybe "talk" isn't all for nothing. At this point, just slowing the breakneck pace of price increases would be a small victory.


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

Canada’s Overheated Real Estate Market Threatens To Destabilize The Economy: RBC - Better Dwelling


Canada’s largest bank warned the country’s real estate markets are approaching systemic risk. Not credit risk, banks are more than adequately protected. Instead they see it as a risk for the whole darn economy. RBC senior economist Robert Hogue, who isn’t a traditional bear, warned the market is...




betterdwelling.com





Hogue didn’t hold back, warning “overheated markets threaten to destabilize the economy down the road if or when a correction occurs, with possible heavy costs for governments. The threat is particularly potent because excessively high price expectations are widespread. Canada hasn’t had a market overheating of this scope since the late 1980s.” 


Canada’s nurturing of the housing bubble created buyers that don’t see risk. *Instead, they now firmly believe policy will be used to prevent prices from ever falling. *

This is exactly the sentiment I'm seeing on Reddit, Facebook, etc.


----------



## bigmoneytalks (Oct 3, 2014)

I know of people with average incomes 150k or so family incomes getting into million dollar mortgages dumping every single penny in their houses with fancy kitchens. It really pisses me off that this market has gone nuts and encourages this reckless behaviour. I feel sorry for those young Canadians who do save and are responsible will never own a home because of the current economic situation that keeps pushing this housing bubble to the moon


----------



## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

I agree it’s unfortunate to some degree. But there is a LOT of land in Canada.....just driving from Toronto to Barrie, you still see a lot of land. Don’t know about the rest of the country, but Ontario seems pretty empty. I’m not saying move to Thunder Bay, but you would think there still is affordable housing in a lot of areas. jobs is probably the bigger challenge, but maybe covid will lead to more work from home opportunities.

also, while I haven’t see stats lately, there is likely a massive wealth transfer coming when boomers pass on.


----------



## bigmoneytalks (Oct 3, 2014)

Massive transfer of wealth maybe but I'd like to see those numbers. My parents are boomers and no they don't have massive wealth. So this transfer that I hear is probably about 1% of the population...don't think it will move the neddle. 

You're right about the land though. But most of this land is privately y own and will never sell for whatever reason so what you get then is a tight supply, low interest rates and bingo... Up she goes all the way to the moon. I do believe this will end when rates rise and when that happens everyone will suffer even the responsible ones.


----------



## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

Here are some stats....bit dated......but the rise of wealth management divisions in the banks is a sure sign.









Preparing your family for the great wealth transfer | Manulife Private Wealth


The greatest intergenerational transfer of wealth in Canada’s history is set to take place over the next few decades, but are high-net-worth families prepared for the shift?




www.manulifeprivatewealth.com


----------



## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

bigmoneytalks said:


> Massive transfer of wealth maybe but I'd like to see those numbers. My parents are boomers and no they don't have massive wealth. So this transfer that I hear is probably about 1% of the population...don't think it will move the neddle.
> 
> You're right about the land though. But most of this land is privately y own and will never sell for whatever reason so what you get then is a tight supply, low interest rates and bingo... Up she goes all the way to the moon. I do believe this will end when rates rise and when that happens everyone will suffer even the responsible ones.


I think it’s already moved the needle. Where do you think millennials are getting the $200,000 down payment to buy $million homes?


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

Boomers are mostly in their 60's, so they have about 20 years of life left on average. Some who are well-off have gifted their kids money, but the majority of millennials won't inherit that wealth until much later.

My mother owns her detached house plus a rental condo, but her income and savings are otherwise minimal. She pretty much needs the rental income just to get by. I would never consider asking her for money, although she has floated the idea of buying a house together.

What I see happening right now with millennials stretching themselves to buy homes is pretty concerning. This induced demand is going to peter out eventually, but there is always going to be people who want or need to sell their houses. That's when prices are likely to start coming down, and I expect we'll be seeing a lot of buyer's remorse from people who paid 200K over asking.


----------



## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

bigmoneytalks said:


> Massive transfer of wealth maybe but I'd like to see those numbers. My parents are boomers and no they don't have massive wealth. So this transfer that I hear is probably about 1% of the population ...


Well it is being totaled up so there is a range. The total is estimated at $1 trillion over six years or so, where I am not sure if taxes are estimated.

Then there's how many ways it is split as fewer kids means less splits with more to each individual.




bigmoneytalks said:


> ... don't think it will move the neddle ....


Lots of factors to consider (bank of Mom&Dad for home purchases versus holding tight in case of high assisted care living costs).

'Course the other question is whether foreign in-flows are less than or more than the transfer. 
Hong Kong, on it's own, supposedly transfer 43 billion to Canada last year.


Cheers


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1376574853814312962


----------



## bigmoneytalks (Oct 3, 2014)

Eclectic12 said:


> Well it is being totaled up so there is a range. The total is estimated at $1 trillion over six years or so, where I am not sure if taxes are estimated.
> 
> Then there's how many ways it is split as fewer kids means less splits with more to each individual.
> 
> ...


If rather see stats from unbiased sources (of course a private wealth firm will post that) . I don't doubt there is a large transfer of wealth but if you think baout our population across Canada, how much does that represent? Not big enough to move markets like this. Housing is fuelled by supply and demand plus interest rates the latter allows anyone that has a brain (working or not lol) to buy real estate. Bank of mom, sure there are some exceptions but don't think that is behind this push for real estate... Nor is foreign investors. We just have a lot of people that have access to credit and lust for real estate plain and simple. 

Maybe I'm wrong but there are alot of seniors who are broke. Not these millionaires everyone is talking about.


----------



## bigmoneytalks (Oct 3, 2014)

Maybe I'm wrong but there are alot of seniors who are broke. Not these millionaires everyone is talking about.
[/QUOTE said:


> Don't ask me to find stats about that one lol


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Money172375 said:


> I agree it’s unfortunate to some degree. But there is a LOT of land in Canada.....just driving from Toronto to Barrie, you still see a lot of land. Don’t know about the rest of the country, but Ontario seems pretty empty. I’m not saying move to Thunder Bay, but you would think there still is affordable housing in a lot of areas. jobs is probably the bigger challenge, but maybe covid will lead to more work from home opportunities.
> 
> also, while I haven’t see stats lately, there is likely a massive wealth transfer coming when boomers pass on.


The problem in Toronto is that vast swathes of the city are zoned for exclusively single family housing (so-called 'yellow belt'). That leaves very small areas for extreme intensification (hence all the condo towers) rather than infill developments in subdivisions (replacing post-war homes with a row of townhouses, etc.). And just the sheer rate of household formation makes it difficult for the construction industry to keep up with demand. Condos in particular take a long time to realize (7-10 years is not uncommon). 

And we don't really want the city to sprawl out to Barrie. Low density suburbs are very expensive to service in the long run. We also have a large green belt to protect sensitive lands north and west of the city.


----------



## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

*'Canadian housing fire needs a response', says BMO*



https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-housing-fire-needs-a-response-says-bmo-171931443.html



"The action needed today is one that immediately breaks market psychology and the belief that prices will only rise further. That would dampen the speculation and fear-of-missing-out that those expectations are creating," said Kavcic and Reitzes.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

andrewf said:


> The problem in Toronto is that vast swathes of the city are zoned for exclusively single family housing (so-called 'yellow belt'). That leaves very small areas for extreme intensification (hence all the condo towers) rather than infill developments in subdivisions (replacing post-war homes with a row of townhouses, etc.). And just the sheer rate of household formation makes it difficult for the construction industry to keep up with demand. Condos in particular take a long time to realize (7-10 years is not uncommon).
> 
> And we don't really want the city to sprawl out to Barrie. Low density suburbs are very expensive to service in the long run. We also have a large green belt to protect sensitive lands north and west of the city.


With a rapidly growing population, you need to rapidly grow the area, or increase density.
The government has refused to pick one.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Cramming more people into small areas isn't a long term solution. Eventually you run out of space.

A great effort has to be made to encourage business to move away from dense urban areas to where there is more room.

Otherwise the condos just keep geting smaller and smaller.

They already have micro condos. Next they will be selling "pod tubes" like those in Japanese hotels.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

In Canada we have Toronto and Vancouver and not a lot in between but empty land.

In the US you have New York and Seattle..........and a lot of major cities in between.

Do all our banks and companies require their head offices and manufacturing to be in Toronto or Vancouver ? Travel very far north into Canada away from the US border and there is lots of rocky bare land that is useless for farming.

Companies can't do business in the middle of the country.......like other countries do ?


----------



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Several banks have recently stated that the housing market is overheated. Both RBC and BMO say housing is overheated, and immediate steps are needed.

Scotia, in comparison, has cautioned against a government response to cool things down. But they say that if the government does take action, it should be targeting housing speculators.



> “Many Canadians believe the policy environment guarantees property values will rise indefinitely,” Royal Bank economist Robert Hogue said in a March 24 report. “Policymakers should put everything on the table, including sacred cows like the principal residence exemption from capital gains tax.”


It seems pretty obvious to me why home prices are going crazy. The central bank has reduced interest rates to basically zero and I think that's the core reason. Hopefully we'll get higher interest rates soon, which should reduce the insanity.


----------

