# We are Finally Here



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Going into an election where I believe the Fed and everyone else wants wants more of the same in Obama, although Romney will also be fine, we get the all guns blazing QE today. Just before you get a stock market disaster you will normally get some sort of euphoria first. We are in September and the market is supposed to be terrible and all that sort of rot. I don't believe the economy around the world is really any good and people really can't afford a huge inflation spike that some seem to think will come from the QE's around the world. No I believe we are probably seeing the last blast off in the stock market pulling everyone in only to have it roll over and destroy everyone in 2013. 

I mean who isn't bullish right now, on the market, gold, oil, silver and so on and I believe there is still a lot of money to suck in before the rug gets pulled out from under the market. Risk on baby because your money won't be worth anything sitting in the bank. I sold my HZD early this morning for a very small profit figuring the Fed would come down hard on the bears. I like silver and gold but they seem overbought and dangerous at this point so I decided to go with SNC today because it is already beaten down. I feel there is good money most likely to be made here until year end as the party gets going nifty fifty style.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nifty_Fifty


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

My VXX puts are doing very well. VXX is down 56% in the past three months. Absolutely nuts. My return on VXX puts since the beginning of the year is well over 100%.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

All central banks have formally announced they will do whatever it takes, unlimited open-ended purchases of everything that doesn't stick to the wall, until unemployment rates comes down. There is going to be a huge asset bubble in both US equity and bonds, but equity will probably do better. So BUY STOCKS, especially financials.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Where is the employment going to come from, over the last few quarters the companies delivered very good bottom line numbers because they are cutting expenses to the bare bone, but no growth in revenues, is the real estate market in US and elsewhere going to recover fast enough to create jobs, where else is the employment coming from?

Not long into the future the feds may be extending zero interest rates into 2035, hello Japan ;-)


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

The only risk is the fiscal cliff, Fed said they don't think their tools are strong enough to offset the shock


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

The US needs to devalue their currency and increase exports/improve their current account balance. This move is probably also a signal to China that the US is serious about this, and they are quite willing to export inflation to China if they maintain their peg.

I'm surprised at the strength of the commitment. It's more than I was expecting, but it's probably about right in terms of what is needed. The only thing better would have been the ultimate bazooka of QE: promising escalating asset purchases until nominal GDP is growing at a rate they are satisfied with. First month they buy $10 billion, next $20 billion, next $40 billion, etc. Previous QEs were limited in scope, which was probably a mistake. The Central Bank has unlimited power to create inflation, it's job is to convince everyone that they are willing to pull the trigger. Low inflation expectations (via inflation-linked bonds vs nominal bonds) show that the market was calling the Fed's bluff.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I tend to agree with Homerhomer about where is the employment going to come from. The big idea is still to get consumers to buy houses refinance and load up on debt. Unfortunately everyone has a debt problem and are to tapped out to afford higher and higher energy prices. No to me this is get the can down the road, get the election over with and then deal with the real problems in 2013.

Or possibly they could be thinking that if they manage this thing for long enough the next long term expansion cycle will emerge and we can move past this crisis.

Overall though I think if things can get bullish enough and in everyones thinks stocks can only go up then watch out I think we may see the 2009 lows again. This looks like a 2000 tech bubble like party is coming and everyone needs to climb aboard but don't forget to get out before the music stops.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

andrewf said:


> My VXX puts are doing very well. VXX is down 56% in the past three months. Absolutely nuts. My return on VXX puts since the beginning of the year is well over 100%.


By the way andrewf good job on the VXX puts that is definitely the place to make the fast money. I sort of forgot about doing that one and instead had to make my money the harder way by trading. So far this has been a good year for me, I am up 25% since Jan 1.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I like VXX puts as a relatively safe way of exploiting VIX contango. I don't have the nerve for shorting the ETFs, as there is a chance you could face a margin call in a panic. I use long term puts. I just rolled some Jan 2013 puts down and out to Jan 2014. I was originally planning on doing that closer to November/December, but VXX has been decaying faster than I projected. 

Still it's risky. I wouldn't do this with a large percentage of my portfolio.


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## Young&Ambitious (Aug 11, 2010)

Is anyone else of the thinking that after a few days, prices will drop as the hype dies down?


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

QE3333333333!! 
And there's nothing I can do since I am stuck in SFO airport.


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

Young&Ambitious said:


> Is anyone else of the thinking that after a few days, prices will drop as the hype dies down?


Yes.


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## Assetologist (Apr 19, 2009)

Young&Ambitious said:


> Is anyone else of the thinking that after a few days, prices will drop as the hype dies down?


Nope! It will come down but I guess not for a few weeks or even months. I'll probably be 180 degrees wrong but I think there has been so much negativity baked into global markets recently that an open-ended 'promise' of stimulus will rise the tides for a while. 
Maybe, just maybe it will actually turn around sentiment and lead to real consumer spending and expansion of real businesses?! 
We'll see. ( not at all qualified to make economic forecasts )


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Assetologist said:


> Nope! It will come down but I guess not for a few weeks or even months. I'll probably be 180 degrees wrong but I think there has been so much negativity baked into global markets recently that an open-ended 'promise' of stimulus will rise the tides for a while.
> Maybe, just maybe it will actually turn around sentiment and lead to real consumer spending and expansion of real businesses?!
> We'll see. ( not at all qualified to make economic forecasts )


I don't think the market was expecting QE3. Although BAC buying pre announce indicate that some know what the announcement will be about.

This move by the Fed basically just sealed Obama's next presidency as well as keeping Bernanke as the head of the Fed. It was a mistake on Romney's part to public state that he wants to fire Bernanke.

So the only question that's left is: "Will Obama invade Iran?" We know Romney will for sure, Obama is more of a delay until inevitable guy.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Invading Iran would be a mistake of epic proportions. It would make Iraq look like a minor error in judgement.

I don't think Obama or Romney are stupid enough...


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

andrewf said:


> Invading Iran would be a mistake of epic proportions. It would make Iraq look like a minor error in judgement.
> 
> I don't think Obama or Romney are stupid enough...


It is times like these that stupid wars are made of or from.

I heard a rumor that Obama promised Israel bunker buster bombs if they would delay their attack until after the election.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama...delays-iran-invasion-until-after-us-elections

I believe Israel wants to eliminate the threat from Iran and is just looking for the best possible way to go about it.


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## Dopplegangerr (Sep 3, 2011)

I am in the process now of getting my Iranian visa so I can visit the country before the USA invades. My life time goal is to visit every country in the world. 1/4 of the way there. Long way to go still. I believe there will be war so I want to see this amazing place before its flattened


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

No-one will _invade_ Iran....but there might be an attempt to replicate the raid on Osirak


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Obama deserves a credit for not starting any wars, trying to resolve conflicts in peacefull manners, and efforts to improve USA image around the world, he won't attack Iran, however with that said I think his stand on the recent murders in Libya were too soft IMO, and that could actually hurt him in the election, nobody like innocent Americans killed and no action taken, that includes democrats.

Either way I still can't see where the jobs are coming from and the stock market wealth effect alone can only take this so far.


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

Homerhomer said:


> Obama deserves a credit for not starting any wars, trying to resolve conflicts in peacefull manners, and efforts to improve USA image around the world.


Bombing Libya, throwing Mubarak under the bus, ignoring intelligence reports that warned of attacks in Benghazi......yes, I can see from the pics this week how that's improved America's image around the world.

The guilty men behind the Arab Winter



> How Obama et al preened and postured over their role in helping the Libyan ‘opposition’ get rid of Gaddafy! How they congratulated themselves at the fall of Mubarak in Egypt! It was the dawn of democracy, they gushed, a new era for Libyans and Egyptians who were all on Twitter and Facebook and so were clearly modern folk keen to enjoy human rights and the rule of law, and who could now have all of that thanks to the enlightened help of Obama, Cameron and Sarkozy.
> 
> In fact, the most likely result always was the empowerment of Islamic radicals who would enslave the people and make war against the west. Obstinately, these arrogant western fools nevertheless stuck to their fantasy of a democratic ‘spring’, even while the evidence mounted up that what they had actually done was create a vacuum which would unleash the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic radicals and thus set Libya and Egypt on a path back towards the 7th century.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Nemo2 said:


> Bombing Libya, throwing Mubarak under the bus, ignoring intelligence reports that warned of attacks in Benghazi......yes, I can see from the pics this week how that's improved America's image around the world.


Overall it did improve the image despite the fact there were mistakes and no regime is perfect, and coming after Bush who attacked at will and fabricated reasons, it would be dificult to look bad in comparison.


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

Homerhomer said:


> Overall it did improve the image despite the fact there were mistakes and no regime is perfect, and coming after Bush who attacked at will and fabricated reasons, it would be dificult to look bad in comparison.


So, if Bush 'fabricated reasons', what about these people:



> "If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program."
> --President Bill Clinton, Feb. 17, 1998
> 
> "Iraq is a long way from [here], but what happens there matters a great deal here. For the risks that the leaders of a rogue state will use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons against us or our allies is the greatest security threat we face."
> ...


I seem to recall that people such as Putin also believed that Saddam had WMDs......the threat was perceived as real.


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## Dopplegangerr (Sep 3, 2011)

Homerhomer said:


> Obama deserves a credit for not starting any wars


You actually think all this stuff happened in the Arab Springs with out the CIA stirring the pot. Libya, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain so much stuff has happened while Obama is in. And the guy has sent heaps of drones over that have killed countless civilians. They kill people as if the guys were playing a video game, very little accountability for there actions


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

LOL @ Nemo2.
Excellent compilation.
Some of these quotes bring back memories of the Clinton days.
Albright was the worst war mongerer.
The failures and mistakes that administration made in Bosnia are legendary.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

The rally is still going very strong here so I think it has the legs to deliver us a bubble so make the money while it is on the table and then run.
http://jugglingdynamite.com/
http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.ca/

So far the bears haven't to much to say but it is a little soon after the announcement.


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