# Africa Oil Corp. (AOI)



## humble_pie

re AOI, a reuters story on saturday reported that al-quaeda backed al-shabaab rebels in somalia's autonomous puntland province have "cancelled" all foreign resource extraction permits. The western-backed ruling government is weak & perhaps can or perhaps cannot support the permits it has issued.

looking further, there appears to be a lot of tribal unrest in the puntland over the arrival of western petroleum engineers & their drill/exploration operations. The main issue is the same as everywhere. The main issue is always real or imagined threat to the water supply. 

a related issue is that local tribes often don't believe they've been given a fair financial stake. Quite often, their views have merit. Only in the past decade have canadian resource extractors had to deal seriously with the legitimate claims of native peoples that the resources in their own lands belong to them, not to the exploitative foreigners.

what has all this got to do with africa oil ? the driller that spudded the first puntland well late last week is canada's horn petroleum, partnering with australia's range resources.

horn is majority owned by africa oil.

more early signs of a great story in the making: apparently there are huge unexplored basins of oil in the horn of africa. South of yemen, east of uganda. Some say greater than the saudi fields. Others point to the desire india & china will inevitably have for this oil, because transport will be so easy.

oil in somalia, ethiopia, kenya. Al-quaeda wants it. The west wants it.


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## HaroldCrump

Interesting find by canadian_investor and as usual excellent detective work by humble_pie.
I took a brief look.

AOI's region of operations has been one of the most politically volatile and unstable in the world, going back decades if not centuries.

Yet, what stands out is that this stock has more than quadrupled is just over 10 years.
That is better than 12% annualized return year over year.
Slowly and steadily, flying under the radar (less than $500M market cap, less than $5 share price), it has held its own through $30 oil, through the post 9/11 world, through $150 oil, through the 2008 recession, etc.
Only one major correction in the 2008 - 2009 period.

Definetely deserves further attention.


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## humble_pie

harold would you be willing to double-check the aoi history please ?

here's what i picked up whizzing through. Present-day aoi is essentially a new company produced by at least one recent reverse takeover, possibly 2.

so whatever the name "africa oil" may have meant for its shares in the past, this is a new or at least repurposed company with very little trading history.

the principals - i mentioned at 1st glance their calibre is high & their universal connection is to the lundin mining empire - mostly came over from tanganyika oil after they developed that junior to the point where it was sold to sinopec for big $$ in 2008 (note tanganyika does not mean its properties were in africa; no, they were in syria.)

the aoi principals are highly experienced petroleum engineer/executives with long histories of service in africa & the middle east. This is essential because it is going to be extremely difficult to survive & progress in somalia & ethiopia in the face of al-quaeda, etc.

other canadian resource juniors have failed in challenging geopolitical circumstances because management was naiive. My sense with aoi is that the team is cut out to attempt the job.

i like that aoi management does not include any obvious promoters. The proportion of licensed geologists & engineers among them is high.

i don't like too much that insiders have been selling recently. In particular the cfo unburdened himself of most of his shares at something in the 1.70 range.

i also thought that the al-shabaaz story would drive down both aoi & hrn today. Perhaps this will still happen as word gets around. What happened is that horn commenced drilling its first well only last week & 48 hours later the somali rebels announced that the exploration permits don't exist & the foreign infidels are to be driven from the land ...


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## humble_pie

stk now down to 1.92. Have not bought yet.

what i like about stories like this one is the purity. The precision. The extreme focus. The all-or-nothing bet. The tantalizing possible rewards. The danger.


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## HaroldCrump

It's on my ToDo list as well for further research, per your post above.
This was in the $1.60s not to long ago, so maybe it's headed there.

I think anything remotely related to that region is being discounted these days, esp. given the latest escapades of Lavalin.


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## humble_pie

horn is a one-country bet, the puntland.

however africa oil has properties in ethiopia & kenya in addition to its 51% ownership of horn.

the E & K properties are exploration blocks so far, no drilling yet.


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> The tantalizing possible rewards. The danger.


Indeed!

I was reminded of a jr. stock that caught my eye in the under $2 range less than 2 years ago, but was never able to find enough info. on it to keep it long term & look at it now:

http://www.google.ca/search?aq=f&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=tao+stock

Will keep an eye on AOI as well. Thanks for ALL the above info.


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## humble_pie

U can flame me or the mods can warn me but this a duplicate post. I did start buying aoi yesterday. Could only get filled on 3000 sh at 1.82.

i revisited their website to look at the kenya exploration blocks. Had not realized this before, but they are partnering with british Tullow, the company that has already drilled successfully next door in Uganda (the geo thinking is that the oil formation extends NE from uganda to ethiopia.)

like aoi better than ever. OK flame away. Not a company tout & i promise to restrain the purple prose in the future.


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## McBeanburger

*Another Puntland play*

Hi folks,

just joined the board. 

keep an eye on Marauder Resources East Coast - they have a MOU with the Puntland government for 3 large concessions. two off shore and Nuugal East. 

current capitalisation 18mill - peanuts.


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## humble_pie

thank you for adding marauder.

but i believe i'll pass. 

what they hold are exploration blocks. Two are offshore, in somali pirate waters. Marauder's sole offshore experience is nova scotia (woo hoo those naughty bluenose pirates.)

lots of junior resource companies function like this. They are property banks. They hold properties to trade or sell. Have no intention of developing.


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## McBeanburger

I think humble_pie that is more a historical view and not a current view. even the historical view is somewhat jaded - mes has been busy with deals in Greenland but got blown out after the gulf spill.

I suggest you ring the company as they are equity financing this right now to drill nuugal east. off shore will require some big boy participation or massive equity financing but that is down the line. meanwhile the company has a market cap of 17 million - absolute peanuts.

i believe there are clear plans afoot to rain in the pirates and I would guess defending a platform is must easier then a moving ship. executive outcome / blackwater are deep on AOI rig site that and other unmentionables. i expect that to continue for mes' drilling later this year. 

there's loads riding on this.




humble_pie said:


> thank you for adding marauder.
> 
> but i believe i'll pass.
> 
> what they hold are exploration blocks. Two are offshore, in somali pirate waters. Marauder's sole offshore experience is nova scotia (woo hoo those naughty bluenose pirates.)
> 
> lots of junior resource companies function like this. They are property banks. They hold properties to trade or sell. Have no intention of developing.


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## humble_pie

won't you please tell us how there are clear plans afoot to rein in the somali pirates (verb is spelt with an "e" not an "a").


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## McBeanburger

now now no need for that sarcasm - mr humble_pie. just because you are wrong about marauder. 

if you have been watching the British government is now getting involved (special ops?) and number of raids have taken place along coastal villages the piretes home bases. (hee hee). i believe once upon a time the puntland government made money off the pireates but now they are seeking legitimacy as a state through their oil revenues and that means no more piraetes and general banditry.

anyway with Islamists forces moving north and linking up with local jaded warlords so its not piracy that is the near term concern to HRN, RRL and RMP. As stated off-shore is months if not a year away. meanwhile mes has nugaal east to drill.

laters McB




humble_pie said:


> won't you please tell us how there are clear plans afoot to rein in the somali pirates (verb is spelt with an "e" not an "a").


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## humble_pie

it's always a good idea to retain healthy skepticism over penny stocks on the venture exchange.

were you saying government of the puntland ? what government, one needs to ask. The place is one of the most dangerous zones in the world. It's a primary incubator of extreme islamic terrorism.

ocean drilling platforms in somali waters only months if not a year off ? in marauder's dreams.

when marauder spuds its 1st well in the nygaal - if they do - one might consider buying shares, but not before imho.


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## humble_pie

i'm out since yesterday at 2.20. A one-week pop returning 20%. Waiting to go back but might go for horn petroleum instead.

such a marvellous story. Danger, huge risks, derring-do, possible massive payoff. Pity nobody on cmf seems interested.


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## Barwelle

Perhaps people were, and that's why you got your 20% return, just that nobody said anything!


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. A one-week pop returning 20%.
> 2. Pity nobody on cmf seems interested.


1. Congrats; well done!. 
2. Says who? Personally, I take my time before I jump in. Moreover, I don't share everything I do here, but it does not mean I'm not interested/intrigued, quite the contrary in fact! And anyway, I thought I bored you & others enough in the 'what are you selling' thread. 

It is by far, the jr. companies that fascinate me the most!


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## humble_pie

no, barwelle, the stocks flew yesterday because horn petroleum issued a press release release yesterday am with the 1st data from its well in somalia. They're at about the halfway mark.

as usual after news, stks subside a bit.


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## McBeanburger

well humble sneezing all over Somalia when AIO are make nice gains from it seem a little one dimensional if not contrary. having talked to marauder i know they are financing and have prelim drill dates 

Dec 2012

Mar 2013 

that's all i'll say on the matter. 



humble_pie said:


> it's always a good idea to retain healthy skepticism over penny stocks on the venture exchange.
> 
> were you saying government of the puntland ? what government, one needs to ask. The place is one of the most dangerous zones in the world. It's a primary incubator of extreme islamic terrorism.
> 
> ocean drilling platforms in somali waters only months if not a year off ? in marauder's dreams.
> 
> when marauder spuds its 1st well in the nygaal - if they do - one might consider buying shares, but not before imho.


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## humble_pie

McBeanburger said:


> ... having talked to marauder i know they are financing and have prelim drill dates ...
> that's all i'll say on the matter.



mcbean talk is cheap but actions speak ten thousand words.

marauder's press releases discussing the somali blocks recite that company's legal rights to these exploration considerations are not clear. I cannot imagine who will finance them in this condition.

so whether you talk away or say no more does not matter in the long run, although if you are really in amsterdam one wonders why you are not interested in horn's partners, emperor or range resources.

ps bean you are a not-bad pump. On a scale of 1-10 you are about a 6.5. The really good pumps are a joy to read. They know their subjects so well, they can discuss the pros & cons so lucidly, that they sound like analysts. Who knows, maybe they are analysts.


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## humble_pie

i bought horn 4 days ago at 1.03 like i said i would. Sld half today @ 1.36 for a one-week gain of 32%. I'm planning to swing between horn & its parent africa oil but the charts were looking ski-jump high. In fact horn is falling from its record hi today.

horn is not a permanent story. The fireworks will only continue until drilling ends in june or thereabouts. There's a boom right now to explore for oil in north-east africa. London investors are way ahead of canadian, ie the canadian stocks are thought to have catch-up room.


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## Toronto.gal

Wow, HRN was $.99 cents just this past Thursday; $1.40 today! Congrats.


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## Toronto.gal

Another good day for AOI/HRN; nice recovery from yesterday!


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## humble_pie

story continues to be gripping while prices & volumes rise. It is possible there could turn out to be large new reservoirs of oil in northeast africa. Natural gas, too.

aoi is strong yesterday & today i believe because of its less-publicized drilling in kenya. The kenyan well is almost as far along as horn's shabeel-1 well in somalia but has not appeared as much in the limelight.

anyone seriously interested in this emerging story might want to monitor the bulletin boards at stockhouse. Please note the name, this is not stockwatch.

stockhouse is normally a charnel house full of criminal pumps, touts, shills & penny stock whores.

but every now & then even a charnel house has its camelot moment & this is what is happening over on stockhouse with the aoi/hrn pair. To a minor extent even pipsqueak marauder is part of this story. There are a few seriously knowledgeable parties commenting on stockhouse boards about the horn of africa. Look especially for someone named pennyoilking.


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## Toronto.gal

HRN, up 21%!
MES, up 17%!
AOI, up 4.2%!

Great picks guys & congrats!


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## humble_pie

i am selling my remaining 3000 sh of horn today because drilling at shabeel-1 has probably ended. The data reports could be out as early as this week. Stk is viral. But if the hard news is not insanely hopeful this stk is going to plunge. There are a lot of visible pro pumps hanging out in these horn-of-africa stocks. The story has become too rich for my blood.

however at 9:30 am the bull i was perched on stampeded out of the gate & i have been clinging on bareback. The heat is fierce, i can't see anything because of the dust, i keep shouting Help Get me Offa here !! but the crowd is howling so loud i know they can't hear me.

horn is going to move its rig to another site nearby & immediately start drilling shabeel-1-north. This will go on until june, so there will be other opportunities to get back into horn, i am sure.

meanwhile i still have my original 1500 shares of africa oil in tfsa. AOI is 51% owner of horn but it also has exploration blocks in 3 other countries besides somalia, so it's less of a one-animal story.

can U imagine, though, horn has gone up 70% in one week


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## humble_pie

*speak of the devil*

no news is good news. 5 minutes ago co says drilling not nearly completed.

perhaps now the pumps will all go take a break & stk can fell back to reasonable levels & some ordinary folks can get in.

_" VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - March 19, 2012) - Horn Petroleum Corporation (TSX VENTURE:HRN.V - News) ("Horn Petroleum" or the "Corporation") reports that the Shabeel-1 well on the Dharoor Block in Puntland, Somalia is currently at a depth of 2,384 metres and is drilling ahead to a planned target depth of approximately 3,800 metres.

" There are no results to report at this time."_


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## humble_pie

i've been out of the aoi/hrn pair for a few days, save & except for 1500 shares of aoi held in tfsa since the beginning of my story, which shares i plan to keep unto the bitter end.

energy stocks were down today, but the aoi/hrn/hrn.wt/mes quartet suffered in particular.

the charnel house bullboards over on stockwatch were in a special tizzy today because a somali gentleman billing himself as an energy consultant has up & said that horn is drilling a dry hole. No oil will ever be found, he declared.

by the strangest coincidence, last week i had been reading the pdf of this same gentleman's lawsuit against the lundin group, owners of the aoi/hrn combo. In his petition to the courts, mr. Said - his name is mohamed said - described himself as a former somali politician who in the early half of the previous decade had offered to introduce the lundin executives to the old conoco data left over when conoco drilled in somalia but had to leave when war broke out.

in his plea to the court, mr. Said says the horn oil in the puntland is worth a whopping $88 billion but he did not receive a fair price for his services, given the vast wealth of the reservoir.

no need to translate. They just didn't bribe him enough.

flash forward one week & it's clear that mr. Said is now freaking pissed. Perhaps he got word on the QT that no, they're not paying him one more red cent. Anyhow, yesterday he changed his tune in a publication called galgalanews & announced that the horn drill prospects are dry holes. There may very well be oil somewhere else in the puntland, mr. Said says airily, but the canadian company is definitely not on top of it.

what good news. I promptly bought 2000 new shares of aoi.

here is mr. Said's website:

http://www.amsasconsulting.com/puntland and Somalia oil.html


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> can U imagine, though, horn has gone up 70% in one week


Quite the story & DD for HRN/AOI.

YTD for HRN: *100%* & 49% for AOI.

What an eye!


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## HaroldCrump

AOI up > 50% this morning...jackpot!


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## Toronto.gal

Happy for you Harold/HP and anyone else that may have shares.  

And how very stupid am I?! I was going to give HRN a cooling off period [from the 100% meteoric rise] and buy AOI last Friday as it merely rose 50%, lol. But could not watch my order and it did not fill. 

Wow, volume is now close to 2 million & up 53%+.

edit: volume now 3.5 million & rising!


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## humble_pie

jackpot it is. It's the kenya story now afaicmo


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## humble_pie

i failed to sell. Had an order started in tfsa when aoi was 3.60 but just could not bring myself. The best is yet to come.

stk has settled back to 3.18 or less. There will be opportunities. This is not a day to buy.


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## rusty23

nice call HP!


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## Jungle

Yup oil is gushing out now.. interesting stock, location and company..


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## Calgary_Girl

Whoo hoo! Bought in at $1.80  Only question now is whether I should lock in the gain? mmm......


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## humble_pie

a huge kick is to be had from the old boys chatting aoi/hrn/mes over on stockhouse.

if these are pumps, they're the best that can ever be found. They sound like retired wildcatters who follow new drilling sites around the world, betting their own money.

there's one wonderful geezer (*oily*) who's computing drill feet per day x the kind of shale & rock formations he guesstimates they're drilling through x the type of drill bit they're using. Apparently his intention is to wait until a couple days before he guesstimates drilling will be completed. Then POW he's going to pile his money in.

one has to love em at that age.

another of the stockhouse experts (*penny*) has announced that marauder east coast - lately the subject of bean's faint pumping efforts here in cmf forum - owns nothing in this world except one hope of obtaining the drilling concession for a somali offshore block in the gulf of aden. But as penny says, tis a fine block. That's because it lies directly off the horn petroleum land drillsite in puntland, in the exact same geo formation which stretches all the way under the gulf to yemen.

toronto.gal & other flash/fire artists, where are you on marauder resources east coast. LOL we should buy 100,000 sh & earmark any gains for charity. Better odds than trudeau vs brazeau tomorrow.


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. if these are pumps, they're the best that can ever be found.
> 2. where are you on marauder resources east coast.


1. Pump & speculative chats are interesting indeed, but not for the novice [am used to them on the biochem side as well].
2. I'm not a penny stock trader [yet].

AOI unfortunately escaped me and it's now too rich for my blood [*YTD* = 143%]. Up another 6%+ today. 

HRN also moving fast & having moderate success with that one!

I'm watching both like a falcon [coz their wings are longer than that of a hawk].  

Who needs AAPL?!


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## HaroldCrump

Another 10% jump in the last 20 mins.
Close to $4 now.

Who needs Vegas?


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## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> Who needs Vegas?


Who needs Lotto/649?  [and I meant who needs AAPL at current price].


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## humble_pie

four-twenty-five & still i believe that the best is yet to come.

my original investment in aoi has more than doubled in this 1st month. So has that of at least one other cmf member. Not to speak of several swing trades i've been able to make as well.

this is the extraordinary value of a forum like this. I came upon africa oil by accident. Another member was looking for a category of foreign stock that doesn't quite exist. In late february he posted up an alphabetical list of toronto stocks he had found which included a mishmash of foreign-owned & mostly-canadian-owned but with 100% business undertakings offshore. At the top of his list was africa oil.

wondering what to suggest to him, not knowing exactly how to help (it would later turn out that the category of toronto-trading foreign stock he was seeking does not exist), i looked up africa oil. Almost immediately, i understood the story. Even more importantly, saw that the story was only beginning.

oh, thank you, CC; thank you so much, Frugal Trader.


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> i looked up africa oil. Almost immediately, i understood the story. Even more importantly, saw that the story was only beginning.


Quite a beginning indeed!

HRN is up another 9% and just made 4% on my 3rd trade of this stock, which broke the $2 mark earlier this morning [is $3 not far behind at this speed/development of things?].

Why are you thanking CC & FT for your discovery/research?


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## humble_pie

africa oil, the huge insider in horn, needs horn sh price to remain above $2 for i believe it's 30 days, in order to accelerate the warrant exercise period. So many have expected this level.

afaicmo all are waiting for an announcement from hrn. Not that a crumb would know anything, but i ask myself why would co announce more drilling results if their short-term goal is to froth the share price. Better luck by keeping folks in suspense. Meanwhile it seems sensible to note that since late last week the pumpz have lashed themselves into a foaming frenzy. Not a good sign in the very short term.

horn will drill shabeel-1-north after the current shabeel-1 & co also has exploration blocks in western puntland. So there appears to be a considerable time frame ahead.

horn itself cannot be taken over because of the huge aoi majority ownership. It is thought that horn will be groomed for sale as exploration finally winds up.

les vrai(e)s mordu(e)s could always check out overnight red emperor & range resources prices on australia plus early morning prices in london; they are horn's partners in puntland.


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## humble_pie

marauder (mes) recently took a haircut when it gave up 2 of its 3 exploration hopefuls in somalia & concentrated on its one remaining block.

what MES has now is a memorandum of understanding with the puntland government that it might obtain the exploration concession to this block if it can obtain the financing for the same by this summer.

i would imagine it's a bit of a closed loop. MES can obtain the concession if they have the financing & they can obtain the financing if they have the concession.

the good news is that the block is northeast of horn petroleum's drillsite in the dharoor valley in puntland. Geologists believe that the rock formations continue to the northeast all the way to yemen.

the bad news is that marauder's block is a few miles underneath the ocean floor, in the gulf of aden.

recent news has indicated deepwater ocean-drilling platforms are in such tight supply that they are effectively not available. They can cost up to $500 million to build new, plus there would be a lag of 2 years at the shipbuilding yard. One US offshore driller (hercules) just paid $40M for a used platform plus another $45M to upgrade & tow it from the caribbean to the middle east, where it will be leased for more than $50M per annum.

this suggests to me that few companies with deep-ocean experience will be looking to acquire new well sites any time soon. Not the best news for MES.

i am just posting this up in case anybody is thinking of MES as a much cheaper shortcut to a proxy for HRN. It isn't.


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## humble_pie

sold 1000 sh of aoi at 4.08 in the tfsa 35 minutes ago.

foolish crumb that i am, i am naiively hoping i will be able to buy them back cheaper.

if wrong it will of course be t.gal's fault. Look what forbidden fruit she keeps gathering from her beckoning low-bending branches.

at least i still have another 1235 sh remaining in tfsa. Still in the trench, so to speak.


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. sold 1000 sh of aoi at 4.08 in the tfsa 35 minutes ago.
> 2. am naiively hoping i will be able to buy them back cheaper.


1. Nice way to end a volatile week & tax-free! :victorious:

2. Seriously, where are investors who don't book any profits these days? 

Who knew our stocks [aside from HRN/AOI of course], would be long-term yo-yos bouncing up and down for so long? Didn't most of us think back in late 09 that things could only get better? As you bought in tranches, hopefully you'll be able to buy them back at same price or close enough, but then again, you might not with these sizzling hot stocks. :cool2:

Anyhow, I realized last year, that with the help of volatility, I could lower my ACB's on some long-term positions, and could do so not only by buying more shares, but also by selling and getting them back at a lower price with same capital [I hope Belguy is not reading]. Without a crystal ball, I'm pleased with some of the corrections [or rather improvements] that I was able to make recently as well as late last year, though I missed the boat on a few because frankly, I never expected some to drop so much [like BHP]. 

I sold each time for a small to moderate profit [no realized losses], but key reason for selling was not to book profits, rather, it was to buy them at lower prices [not talking about just lowering by a few cents & no small volume either].

*Visual example:* assume 100 shares each time for simplicity purposes [but real volumes were higher]

2010
1) 1st tranche x $31
2) 2nd tranche x $27 

*ACB: $29*

2011
3) sold 1st tranche x $34 [purposely keeping the low obviously believing shares would not reach that low again {wrong so many times}]. :disgust:
4) bought sold stocks back at $25

*ACB: $27*

If I had simply bought more shares x $25 and not sold 1/2 at $34, I would have: i) a higher ACB [granted I would have more shares], ii) committed a larger capital [hence, less cash for other opportunities] and iii) would have zero realized profits instead of $500 [though the non-ACB profit = $300 {$34 - $31 x 100}].

Am I right or am I missing/forgetting something? Anyway, that's how I rationalize it [tax not an issue].

Re: MES, thanks for the comments, but I'll pass for now [afraid of penny stocks].


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## humble_pie

pedestrian commentary from lou schizas at the globe and mail.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ng-back-after-an-huge-advance/article2398482/

lou finds that aoi shares have run up big & are now consolidating as investors take profits.
gosh.
the insight blows me away.

surprisingly, lou ends with an amateur remark.

africa oil is "still not reporting a profit," lou says. "Getting [the oil] to market and getting paid for it" will be "the real proof in the pudding," he adds.

gosh.
whatever happened to the role of junior explorers.

africa oil's mandate as a junior is strictly to find & define oil reservoirs in northeast africa. If successful, its shares will go to the moon as the company sells to the highest-bidding oil producer. If aoi fails, shares will collapse back to pitiful penny stocks.

as for the setback in aoi share price, a large part is due to the very recent drop in all O & G related stocks. But part may also be related to a wavering pattern i see of rotation between africa oil & horn petroleum.

the rotations are not always evident, but when they occur they suggest to me that some large investors are switching between them, somewhat like cars skipping lanes in a 4-lane throughway. Right now the favoured lane is horn.


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## humble_pie

they're keeping the volumes high, but it's not really new money being committed to the aoi/hrn pair imho.

it looks like the same capital weaving & skipping between 2 lanes on the fast throughway. Two days ago out of africa oil in the 3.90s, into horn in the 1.50s. Yesterday out of horn towards 1.60, back into aoi in the 3.50s. Today aoi is up in the 3.80s, horn is down.

whoever they are, they have definitely speeded up.

it's manipulation i know
a passing glance
a brief romance
& empty-handed on i go


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## Toronto.gal

AOI is recovering nicely; up 12%.

Hope you bought some the last couple of days.


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## humble_pie

actually i sold today, at 4.01.

just for fun, i am working only the 1000 extra shares in tfsa that i bought a week ago at 3.83. I have been trading them à la toronto.gal. In & out, ma'am. Just a trench here & there, ma'am.

so far it has worked out fabulous. Shares rose to 4.08; i sold; shares fell to 3.78; i repurchased 1074 sh; shares rose to 4.01 today; i sold & now hold 4296.75 in cash. I believe the shares will trim back somewhat, at which moment i will use the entire 4296 to repurchase.

in other words, it has been a tfsa leap from $3830 to $4296 in one week.

but you know what, t.gal. Options are much easier to work. JMHO. From the trenches.


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## humble_pie

ps one can see how dead wrong lou schizas was. Yesterday he was advising people to sell at 3.50. tch, tch.


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## PMREdmonton

What's that saying about it is better to keep your mouth closed and have people assume you are an idiot then open your mouth and remove all doubt.


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## PMREdmonton

humble_pie said:


> ps one can see how dead wrong lou schizas was. Yesterday he was advising people to sell at 3.50. tch, tch.



Humble, do you think there is value in OYL (CGX Energy)? They have been drilling off of the shore of Guyana and have some large offshore assets and a number of drilling sites. They allege they are hooked up to the same part of the ocean that yielded the great offshore assets of West Africa. I do know that lots of other companies have accumulated and are drilling in the area (i.e. XOM, RDS, Tullow, Total, Murphy, Inpex, YPF, PBR). They apparently have the 3rd largest position.

They have started a drilling program and results were supposed to be due this week but they have hit a snag that has held up their progress so no results until next year.


----------



## humble_pie

i only have a superficial view of oyl, so i don't know if my view would be worth anything. But in case it might be, my answer would be yes, there could very well be value to oyl/cgx energy. Although your mention that there will be "no results until next year" is worrisome. I mean, we are in april now, what's this about next. year.

the geology of northeast south america is the same as west africa. No doubt you know the reason, it's a marvellously romantic story, like a hidden myth hovering in a beautiful name.

when the planet earth was young, all the landmasses were joined together. What later became south america, africa & australia were solidly massed in an ur-continent known as gondwanaland. Sometimes, today, called gondwana.

plate techtonics forced the continents apart & south america drifted far to the west. An ocean intervened. But one can easily see how the giant eastern promontory of south america fits into the armpit of west africa. The geologies of both - the oil & gold deposits of gondwanaland - are the same.

i would have to go back & look at cgx energy again to have a better opinion. But i recall that there is an excellent research tool buried on its website. Search around - perhaps in investor relations - until you find some analysts' reports. Look for the 20-page institutional report from GMP securities entitled something like 10 Top Wells to Watch in 2012.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Sorry, no I meant results delayed about one month, not one year.

I've read some of the preliminary stuff but I always have a bit of skepticism about how much pumping is going on about something that someone else doesn't want anymore.

The story is exciting and they have some partners but still no results.

I have been following the West African story for afar and have been considering dipping into its Americas equivalent. These guys seem legit and they are very highly levered to this space. This is classic boom or bust depending on whether their offshore positions contain oil they can find before they run out of money for drilling. The other issue for them is whether the local governments will know how to handle an oil boom.

I haven't dipped in yet. Partly I'm worried about being too highly levered to energy but the world needs are so compelling and the current valuations are so compelling that it is hard to resist this space.


----------



## humble_pie

yesterday i sold

today it's going down like a little lamb so i shall be able to re-buy lower.

t.gal you are ruining us


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> t.gal you are ruining us


Yeah, I see how the parabolic rise of YOUR stock is ruining you; must be opposite day today. :rolleyes2: Congrats on the profits! 

Darling pic. :angel:


----------



## humble_pie

this morning i bought back at 3.87. Wound up this time with 1,108 shares. 

aoi then turned around like a little lamb & climbed slightly back up.

i don't know what to make of the interim shabeel drilling report from horn that was released yesterday. They sure weren't saying anything definite.

in kenya recently, africa oil & tullow gave the good ngame news to the president of the country to announce. I would imagine that the same thing will happen in puntland; the real news will eventually be announced by president farole.


----------



## humble_pie

isn't he gorgeous ? he's only 2 days old. Clearly he's going to be the Black Prince of rams when he grows up.

i sold my 1108 swing shares of aoi this am at 4.27. Stk closed tonight at 4.20. I believe i will be able to buy back more shares at a cheaper price.

t.gal, this is getting monotonous. Shares go up, i sell. They go down, i buy bigger quantity. Even lambs are friskier.

.


----------



## Toronto.gal

From 1000 shares to already 1108 in less than a week? Seems you'll have 2,000 sh in no time, with the same capital! :cool-new:

Yes, he's gorgeus & precious!


----------



## Toronto.gal

AOI on fire once again; 204% YTD. 

Has got to be the best 2012 stock posted here.


----------



## HaroldCrump

And somewhere along the way, it crossed the magic $1B market cap.
In my post from barely a month ago, I had referenced that it has a market cap of $500M.
I assume going past $1B is going to bring it to the attention of many more potential investors.


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> I assume going past $1B is going to bring it to the attention of many more potential investors.


Good point Harold! 

The stock has had my attention for some time [for obvious reasons; hp being one of them], but I was too slow to act; pull the trigger HC! :rolleyes2:


----------



## humble_pie

the low horn price is baffling.

also horn wts & marauder are not dropping, which is odd, because they should drop in sync with horn.

anardako, which i look at as the bellwether, is dropping precipitously. there's an anomaly here


----------



## HaroldCrump

HRN was up quite a bit in the first half of the day.
It has since reversed course.
Something happened between 11:00 and 11:30.


----------



## Calgary_Girl

Cha ching, cha ching! Way up again this morning. I got in at $1.80, tempted to lock in some gains but I'm not sure how long this run will last? :biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Congrats. to ALL of you.

Amazing! :triumphant:


----------



## Knight Rider

Damn, wish I put my money into AOI instead of G.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Just completed my 4th HRN trade, which is up by 14% thus far. 

Volume is quite high for AOI once again; 2.6 million as opposed to 800K for HRN.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Calgary_Girl said:


> Cha ching, cha ching! Way up again this morning. I got in at $1.80, tempted to lock in some gains but I'm not sure how long this run will last? :biggrin:


one has to wonder.
u bought at 1.8.
the high was what around 5.67 ?
then one should ask if it is prudent to lock in some profits.
just wondering here.
after all profit is profit.
but the again comes greed right?
hmmm...


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> Just completed my 4th HRN trade, which is up by 14% thus far.
> 
> Volume is quite high for AOI once again; 2.6 million as opposed to 800K for HRN.


i really hope u sold at the high 2.
i am sure u r a smart trader:encouragement:


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> AOI on fire once again; 204% YTD.
> 
> Has got to be the best 2012 stock posted here.


FYI

03/12/12 Lorito Holdings S.à.r.l., 
10% Security Holder of Issuer 6,521,601 Exercise of warrants at $1.50 - $1.50 per share. $9,782,402 

somebody is making a boatload of money right:rolleyes2:?


----------



## Toronto.gal

moneyisfornothing said:


> i really hope u sold at the high 2.


It hasn't reached the high $2's yet, but I have had 4 successful same-day trades! Up another 6% today.

You are right about not getting too greedy and only wish I had bought AOI in the $1+ as others here did; I'm definitely a profit-taker!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> It hasn't reached the high $2's yet, but I have had 4 successful same-day trades! Up another 6% today.
> 
> You are right about not getting too greedy and only wish I had bought AOI in the $1+ as others here did; I'm definitely a profit-taker!


WELL DONE:encouragement:

cheers


----------



## humble_pie

i'll be. They've done it again. Rock n roll between aoi & horn petroleum.

how long can they keep it up, now that everybody's caught on. GMP, TD & Merrill among the significant brokers with volume.


----------



## Toronto.gal

'Rock n roll' continues!

HRN nearing 13%.


----------



## humble_pie

australia's red emperor, a horn petroleum partner in the shabeel-1 well in puntland, today announced a 19.5 million secondary share issue at 32 pence.

at 6.24 million british pounds, this is a relatively small issue that will dilute rmp's shares only to a minor extent. It is believed that canadian HRN as well as its parent AOI will not require additional financing during 2012.

the existing horn warrants, which trade on toronto, expire in september 2013. Terms are 1 wt + 1.50 = 1 sh hrn. There is an acceleration clause if the hrn share price trades above $2 for 30 days or more. It is thought that management would prefer to force the acceleration.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Thanks for the update!


----------



## humble_pie

aoi has $6 in its sights in early pre-news euphoria.

i'm looking to sell maybe 20%.


----------



## humble_pie

aoi breezed past 6.00 to hit 6.14 this am. I'm still looking to sell a small portion.

i have a certain misgiving about the size of any oil industry to be discovered & developed in this part of the world. 

the hype is that the unexplored oil & gas reservoirs in east africa are as large as, or even larger than, those of saudi arabia.

the worry is supposed to be the direct threat from large al-quaeda forces across the african Sahel.

i don't share this view. Perhaps i'll post about the why-not later. There's plenty of time over the rest of the year to discuss doubts. At the moment, a near-BreX buying frenzy rules.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Happy for everyone here getting rich with AOI; up another 13% and trading now at $6.11 with over 2.5 million in volume!

Nearing 300% YTD? I would most definitely book profits!


----------



## Calgary_Girl

Toronto.gal said:


> Happy for everyone here getting rich with AOI; up another 13% and trading now at $6.11 with over 2.5 million in volume!
> 
> Nearing 300% YTD? I would most definitely book profits!


After sitting on my hands the past two weeks and stopping myself from hitting the "sell" button, I finally sold today at $6.10. I probably hit sell too soon since it closed over $6.30 but it could have just as easily gone the other way I tell myself .


----------



## Toronto.gal

You bought for $1+ and you're complaining for .20 cents? :biggrin:

It might go higher tomorrow and the day after, but nothing is certain. 

Make good use of the huge profit per share that you made & congrats!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

ur absolutely right.
the best poster around IMO:encouragement:


----------



## moneyisfornothing

is it time to dump this pumped up stock yet?:biggrin:
the pumpers must have made a killing on the fools


----------



## humble_pie

in my mind's eye there is a connection between camp lemonnier & africa oil, even though officials of the 2 have probably never met.

situated just outside djibouti, camp lemonnier was an abandoned french fort in 2003 when the first of the US marines arrived. Today i read that the camp houses 3,500 US special forces, including navy seals. It's a vital US military base in the global war on terrorism.

i read that al-quaeda has spread through the sub-saharan Sahel & nearby somalia is thought to be the world's 2nd largest incubator of terrorist fighters, after northwest pakistan itself.

there are said to be not one, but two suicide bombing training camps in somalia.

three months ago, the US & the UK held a high-level conference in london on somalia. Hilary clinton attended. It was that level of importance. I read that a key theme was stopping the growth of al shabaab, the al quaeda presence in somalia.

what can be offered to a failed state like somalia, where there's no economy, no organized government, where much of the population are fleeing as refugees, where drought & famine recur year after year, where nothing works except violence.

a nice oil industry would fit the bill perfectly. Oil would be a lot more salubrious than pirates. A future with jobs in an economy that functions would go a long way towards dissuading youth in east africa from joining al shabaab
.
the more i look, the more i see signs that the US DOD, the state department, the cia & homeland security have been working for several years to implant a stable oil industry in the horn of africa.

i'm not suggesting for a minute that there's no oil in east africa or that the current oil boom is a sham. The conoco drillings & studies of the late 1980s confirm significant hydrocarbon reservoirs.

all i'm thinking to myself is that washington, london & the western world need an industry in the horn of africa & oil fits the biscuit.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/w...-role-in-somalia-rescue.html?_r=1&ref=somalia

_" Camp Lemonnier is part of an archipelago of outposts in high-risk environments that also can serve as lily pads for commando raids and intelligence operations if required. It offers runways, communications, housing, a hospital — and privacy. 

' Djibouti is the central location for continuing the effort against terrorism,' Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said during a visit to Camp Lemonnier last month." _


----------



## humble_pie

oh, my.

fantastic news this am concerning the aoi ngamia well in kenya. Stock up nearly 50% in sweden this am. Bids/asks on canadian venture exchange in 8.25 range.

i let slightly more than 2000 shares go in the past couple of weeks, but i still have more than 4000 left ...

_" The Ngamia-1 exploration well in Kenya has now been deepened to a total depth of 1515 meters and has encountered in excess of 100 meters of net oil pay in multiple reservoir zones over a gross interval of 650 meters. Following the initial announcement on the 26th March 2012 that Ngamia-1 had encountered in excess of 20 meters of net oil pay, the well has now been deepened from 1041 meters to 1515 meters. A further four good quality, oil-bearing reservoir zones have been encountered. Due to deteriorating hole conditions, a sidetrack of the well was required to deepen the well. Moveable oil with an API greater than 30 degrees has been recovered to surface from six of these intervals. This oil has similar properties to the light waxy crude encountered in the upper reservoir zone. "
_


----------



## PMREdmonton

CGX has come up here before and I promised no new threads on micros - trading halted this morning. Did they hit? Could this be a mirror AOI situation?

Now back to regularly scheduled programming.


----------



## humble_pie

in regularly scheduled programming, it looks like they are doing the 2-step shuffle again. Looks underway already. aoi, hrn, hrn, aoi, forward, side.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Oh, my, oh, my.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Calgary_Girl, did you sell everything or did you hold some back?
I think on this board, you had the lowest average cost at $1.89.

I held some back last week but my ACB on that tranche is higher than yours.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Bargains galore now to buy with those AOI profits! 

Hope Calgary gal booked some profits, but kept some tranches!


----------



## londoncalling

Congrats to all who have profited from this ride up and down... I never got in because I am not a trader(not enough experience yet) and did not do enough research to the point where I was confident to risk my $. In some ways I wish I had, but I did take every post in this thread seriously and did learn a lot along the way. Thanks for sharing. Interesting development over the last 3 months. Should be some nice bargains as mentioned by T-gal. I for one am hoping for a few more down days to get some deals


----------



## Calgary_Girl

HaroldCrump, I originally bought AOI at $1.80. I've actually spent the past month selling and buying in stages as the price has been like a yo-yo. I've been buying on the dips the past month and trying to sell at the highs. I thought I would lock in my profits last week and sold everything at $6.10 only to buy it back again $5.95. I was starting to think that was a mistake but was doing the happy dance this morning when the market opened and sold everything at $7.30. Not sure if I'll get back into this one again since I'm typically a buy-and-hold kind of gal but the ride sure was fun :encouragement:.


----------



## HaroldCrump

PMREdmonton said:


> CGX has come up here before and I promised no new threads on micros - trading halted this morning. Did they hit? Could this be a mirror AOI situation?


PMRE, I gotta say you seem to have a "reverse" Midas touch - anything you talk about crashes and burns.
This CGX thingy is down nearly 75% this morning.
It seems to be down almost 90% just in the last month or so.

Please don't talk about any of the stocks I own 

Or perhaps - better idea - I can hire you as my short selling advisor.


----------



## humble_pie

cgx energy, drilling in the caribbean off the coast of guyana, south america, said yesterday the reservoirs it thought it had discovered "unfortunately proved to be water bearing."


----------



## Toronto.gal

At least money can be made somewhere; AOI is up almost 10%.

What a story!

*Harold:* you're funny!


----------



## humble_pie

analyst quinn sievewright from dundee securities discusses africa oil on bnn on 8 may/12. He targets $12 & mentions a possible $20 share price.

sievewright also mentions risks in aoi. He does not adequately discuss the risks imho. But then, few analysts do.

http://watch.bnn.ca/commodities/may-2012/commodities-may-8-2012/#clip674821


----------



## humble_pie

border disputes cloud horn's property rights in puntland.

anyone reading this reuters article will come across the name of Ali Abdullahi, who owns somali oil consulting firm Amsas, which has been mentioned upthread.

abdullahi is associated with the somali lawsuit against africa oil, also mentioned upthread, because it didn't pay him enough $$ (he thought) for his earlier "help" with the puntland exploration sites. Amsas is now a noted bear on horn's prospects in puntland, apparently out of vengeance, claiming that horn's shabeel-1 well in the dharoor valley is going to come up dry.

the lawsuit does not seem to be a concern for africa oil, since the somali legal system is in such disarray it will never be able to hear the case.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/11/somalia-oil-idUKL5E8GB3LG20120511

*Row between Somalian regions slows oil exploration*

By Kelly Gilblom 
NAIROBI | Fri May 11, 2012 12:13pm BST

May 11 (Reuters) - A dispute between two semi-autonomous regions in Somalia is delaying exploration for oil and gas over fears that local authorities are issuing licences to explore blocks that overlap in each other's territories, officials said.


----------



## humble_pie

bad news for shabeel-1 reduced horn petroleum to penny stock status today while false headlines flew in the media.

basically the company said this am, prior to market opening, that they had suspended drilling of this test well. They had already gone down below the original target depth. There are comments upthread on the lukewarm quality of their interim news release just over a month ago.

unfortunately later this morning reuters somehow garbled the story & produced this distortion:



> _*Horn Petroleum finds oil in Somalia well*
> 
> May 17 (Reuters) - Horn Petroleum Corp confirmed the presence of oil at its Shabeel well in the Dharoor Valley basin of Somalia's Puntland.
> "We are highly encouraged with these early results which indicate oil bearing sands in possibly two zones," CEO David Grellman said in a statement._


i'm not buying the reuters version. Horn is already preparing to drill sister well shabeel north only a few kilometres away. The way i interpret grellman's somewhat ridiculous above statement is that data from the 2 wells, including data harvested throughout shabeel-1, will be able to better delineate the oil reserve which the geologists are still hoping to find.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Monday was a very good day for HRN going up more than 40%! The fact is that one needs to be prepared for good & bad news with just about any stock these days & also be prepared for opportunities such news may or may not present!


----------



## humble_pie

Toronto.gal said:


> ... be prepared for opportunities such news may or may not present!


buying aoi now is looking better & better imho


----------



## humble_pie

other developments in E africa are bullish ... anadarko, a senior offshore driller, this week announced a major gas find in the indian ocean, off the coast of mozambique ... lombard odier's global energy fund puts emphasis on emerging juniors including africa oil & salamander ...

an interesting newcomer has just appeared among newly-licensed exploration blocks in kenya. This is Camac Energy, a texas-based exploration junior that is one of the very few energy multinationals to be owned & managed by african-americans. One of the directors is a former mayor of houston. Their new blocks are mostly offshore in the gulf of Aden, the most challenging locations of all. Wishing em luck.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> buying aoi now is looking better & better imho


Good day for both stocks! [nearing 20% on both].

Edit: thanks for reminding me of APC!


----------



## Toronto.gal

And the + news continue! Incroyable; AOI stock of the year? YTD: 568%. 

http://www.youroilandgasnews.com/africa+oil+corp.+provides+ngamia-1+well+update_78146.html


----------



## Eclectic12

Toronto.gal said:


> And the + news continue! Incroyable; AOI stock of the year? YTD: 568%.
> 
> [ ... ]


+1 .... though I'm now regretting selling part last week. I suppose I shouldn't complain as it locked in gain of 100% in about two month or so. :rolleyes2:


Maybe I'll be able to catch a significant temporary drop ... 


Cheers


----------



## Toronto.gal

I have been waiting for such a drop for AOI [a significant one like it happened with HRN or 1/2 of that], but it never came. 

Congrats on your profit; care to share some with me? :biggrin:


----------



## Eclectic12

Toronto.gal said:


> I have been waiting for such a drop for AOI [a significant one like it happened with HRN or 1/2 of that], but it never came.
> 
> Congrats on your profit; care to share some with me? :biggrin:


Well if you'd ordered some HRN for me while it was down or re-bought AOI before the jump (both of which were while I was on vacation), then yes - I'd share. 

Since that didn't happen - I don't want to mess with your work ethic by throwing free money at you ... :biggrin:

... or should that be "trading ethic"?? :rolleyes2:


Cheers


----------



## Toronto.gal

Your vacation location did not have internet, or were you just relaxing too much? You see, I was on vacation too, but I did not miss anything, so I guess I do have stronger work ethics than you. 

http://www.thepressreleasewire.com/....jsp?actionFor=1619731&releaseSeq=0&year=2012


----------



## humble_pie

AGM is this thursday 31 may & folks are expecting company will have some additional good news.

tullow are the actual drillers in kenya. AOI is supplying the capital as its part of the partnership.

EDIT to say that aoi was 1.90 when this thread commenced 3 months ago; it's presently north of 11.00. Is this a false start or are the planned kenya drill sites open to guerrilla attack as mentioned upthread ? no, the kenya sites are safe, the terrorist threat is in puntland, northern somalia, where aoi's spinoff horn petroleum is drilling.


----------



## Eclectic12

Toronto.gal said:


> Your vacation location did not have internet, or were you just relaxing too much? You see, I was on vacation too, but I did not miss anything, so I guess I do have stronger work ethics than you.


That would have been interesting ... my niece would have had to time her interruptions so that I could trade. Or depending on the timing, the building of the shed would have to been put on hold. :biggrin:

... or your vacation activities matched up better!


Cheers


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Are you guys still trading this one. I wish I had of caught up on this thread before. Fantastic gains this year. No idea why I decided to not read this thread before


----------



## humble_pie

Dopplegangerr said:


> Are you guys still trading this one. I wish I had of caught up on this thread before. Fantastic gains this year. No idea why I decided to not read this thread before


no idea either. She was a drop-dead gorgeous little filly from the first day i ever set eyes upon her.

i've sold some along the way but still holding the greater part. The problem with trying to short-term trade aoi is that it's subject to colossal heartstopping liftoffs whenever there's good news, gapping up easily a dollar or more. This causes the shareholder who has sold to say to himself, drat-it's-too-expensive-to-buy-back-now. Then the stock stabilizes at the new higher level, so an opportunity to buy back almost never arrives.

i'm planning to buy more if anything, certainly not to sell. There might be a setback after the AGM. Following whatever they say at the AGM, there won't be news from the drillsites in the immediately foreseeable future that might spike the stock higher, not for 2-3-4 more weeks afaik.

do you see those millions of shares trading daily. Those are the institutions pouring in.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

So Humble what do think would be a good entry price for me if I was keen to jump in


----------



## Axcell

Dopplegangerr said:


> Are you guys still trading this one. I wish I had of caught up on this thread before. Fantastic gains this year. No idea why I decided to not read this thread before


Same boat as you, except I wouldn't buy here... that meeting could very well deliver bad news. The stock has already experienced significant gains... if anything that meeting will have VERY high expectations. Anything that deviates from those expectations will send the stock soaring down just as quick as it ran up...

But I do want to hear other people's views...


----------



## Lucy

do you see those millions of shares trading daily. Those are the institutions pouring in.[/QUOTE]
//////////. //////////. /////////////

How do you know for sure it's institutional buying?


----------



## Dopplegangerr

My guess would be because its the end of the month and mutual funds do a lot of there purchasing around this time. Also then they can say they owned the big gainers for that month. Did I get it right Humble? hehe


----------



## humble_pie

the expected peri-AGM drop in aoi is underway.

stk perked up a few minutes ago, must be something uttered or somebody lost their head as zero hour approaches in vancouver.

i'm looking to buy a few more aoi, but not yet.

in the meantime, i may have found another one. An unknown, high-risk oil explorer that nobody's ever heard of. It's related to africa oil, although it's not in africa. It's still trading in the low pennies.

anybody interested i'll update you later, i'm still doing the research.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

For sure let me know humble


----------



## rusty23

humble_pie said:


> the expected peri-AGM drop in aoi is underway.
> 
> stk perked up a few minutes ago, must be something uttered or somebody lost their head as zero hour approaches in vancouver.
> 
> i'm looking to buy a few more aoi, but not yet.
> 
> in the meantime, i may have found another one. An unknown, high-risk oil explorer that nobody's ever heard of. It's related to africa oil, although it's not in africa. It's still trading in the low pennies.
> 
> anybody interested i'll update you later, i'm still doing the research.


took advantage of your last recommended buy and sold for a 30% gain wish i kept some cause i would of have 65% but either way I appreciate all your work hopefully one day i can research as well and return the favor


----------



## tombiosis

humble_pie said:


> in the meantime, i may have found another one. An unknown, high-risk oil explorer that nobody's ever heard of. It's related to africa oil, although it's not in africa. It's still trading in the low pennies.
> 
> anybody interested i'll update you later, i'm still doing the research.


interested to hear about this one as well...


----------



## humble_pie

tombiosis i'm still studying this micro oil explorer.

it has a lot that's appealing, including that it's in the lundin stable. However, i'm transfixed on the way its share price slumbers on in the low penny range, with almost no signs of interest, for months on end. This is suggesting to me that there may be something wrong which i haven't figured out yet.

possibly the preliminary geological reports may not be as positive as they were for africa oil, for example, when i first began to study aoi in late february this year. At that time, aoi was slumbering also, but its geo reports were dynamite. Bref, i have to do more homework on the new guy.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Humble do you think AOI is going to go back up past its highes?


----------



## humble_pie

Dopplegangerr said:


> Humble do you think AOI is going to go back up past its highes?



DG another way of putting this question is to ask how much oil is there to be found in east africa.

or even, how much oil will AOI discover in east africa.

the short answer is that AOI itself doesn't know. Which is why they're drilling to explore.

for several reasons set forth upthread, i like africa oil. I haven't sold any shares recentlly. I haven't bought any, either.

there are huge negatives involved with any junior oil explorer, so i'm not sure such shares are suitable for new investors, unless they have accounts greater than 100k. Plus capacity to tolerate risk. Plus knowledge of the wicked geopolitical pitfalls that are inherent in all of these overseas regions without exception (you probably, more than others, would have this knowledge.) Plus knowledge of the financing cycles that all junior explorers must go through, regardless of whether they are looking for oil, gas or mineral ores.

there are also significant negatives that are specific to AOI.


----------



## humble_pie

here's a CNBC Africa interview with Aidan Heavey, the irishman who's CEO of Tullow.

tullow is aoi's partner in kenya & will also partner in ethiopia when the 2 companies commence drilling later this year.

it's well-known that about a month ago tullow got carried away by enthusiasm & told shareholders that the new tullow/aoi well at ngame kenya is suggesting a reservoir many times larger than what they've already discovered in uganda - which is commercially significant - even though ngame is not yet fully drilled. In this video, heavey tells journo alishia seckam that the combined kenya/ethiopia properties are 10 times bigger than the recent uganda discovery.

geologists believe the same deep rock formations are shared across east africa.

tullow is legendary, not only for its success as a driller (it also aced last week on a new gas well in Mali) but also for its laudable good-business-good-citizen culture. Viewers can see heavey discussing concepts of social justice towards the end of this interview.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjJmkZgij7c&feature=endscreen&NR=1

and here's an al-Jazeera video on the new pipeline network that will have to be constructed to transport all the newly discovered oil from uganda, sudan, kenya & ethiopia to a new oil terminal port that has yet to be built on the gulf of aden.

viewers can also see, beginning with minute 1:07, good coverage of the strong opposition which has already developed to the nascent oil industry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rell8-vK_Jw&feature=related


----------



## Toronto.gal

Thanks, I watched both videos.

East Africa becoming the new frontier in oil/gas exploration is quite a story! Just imagine how this would help the economy, not to mention how it would help reduce the massive poverty in the region. I was reading about the chronic poverty in Uganda and these were listed as some of the compounding factors:

- Lack of productive assets
- Lack of capabilities and opportunities
- Lack of social support
- HIV/AIDS 

Massive investments & time needed indeed [$10 billion in Uganda alone]. Mr. Heavey said that Eastern Africa had been ignored for a long time, but given its geography/geopolitics, it is not surprising.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Thanks for sharing those two videos HP. Lots going forward in this region. Will be keeping an ear out. AOI is back in the high $8 mark again now. The whole oil industry seems to be taking a beating at the moment. Wish I wasnt already so heavily laden with oil stocks, I could have picked them up now for considerably less then I paid for them a few months ago


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## humble_pie

i forgot to mention that i was astounded at heavey's discussion in the video of the proposed partition of the oil royalties with the local & regional african governments. It's the most generous partition i've ever heard of, bar none.

heavey said that 80% of the profits will go to the local governments. Only 20% will accrue to the oilcos that will run the coming oil industry.

the highest division i've ever previously heard of is 50/50.


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## humble_pie

bought a few more shares for the tfsa.

the price drop is the NGO news. They've been working at lake Turkana for weeks. Yesterday they asked the kenya govt to stop the ngame drilling until they can be guaranteed 25% of the oil royalties.

the thing is, aoi & tullow have already promised em 15%.

everybody knew the anti-oil protests would start up. They'll probably get more extreme.


----------



## humble_pie

after keith hill said last week that aoi is bringing 2 more drills into east africa - another for kenya plus one for ethiopia - i've been thinking to myself that they'll have to do a financing. 

companies usually prefer private placements because they are much less trouble. The buyers - institutions - usually want cheap prices, though. Cheaper than market.

i was thinking that the buyers might be willing to pay around $8. I wasn't expecting the financing until next september, but perhaps it's coming very soon, perhaps next week.

anyhow i bought another 1000 at 8.62 in the taxfree.


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## Dopplegangerr

Whats your share count up to then Humble?
I bought a couple weeks ago (at the height) because I seem to be a real muppet with my timing. I didnt think it threw at the time


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## humble_pie

hi there - i hope very much that, with many ups & downs over the next few years, your shares will double for you.

i think there will be other opportunities. The chief negatives for aoi are 1) kenya has to rewrite its mining act; this is where the opposition & the protesters are going to have a field day. Result: delay.

2) there are going to be battles over ownership of the rights. Even italy's ENI, which was exploring in somalia more than 20 years ago, is rumoured to be dusting off its old licenses in the dharoor valley, where Horn is at work now. There seem to be lots of land conflicts.

also 3) the financings. We'll see what happens, but aoi might settle into a pattern of doing small private financings at regular intervals. They did one like this in Horn a couple weeks ago. Every time they finance they'll have to figure out a way to manipulate the news to get the share price down.

the original 4th concern i had is evaporating. It was that whitehall in london & foggy bottom plus military in washington were promoting oil in east africa as a way of stabilizing the region against al-quaeda. But the way the story is working out, many small details keep crowding forward to confirm that a genuine discovery of an important new fossil fuel complex is occurring.


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## Dopplegangerr

Well if we get a couple more days like today I will have not a worry in the world with this stock. 
Up 12% today


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## humble_pie

i think the probability is maybe 60-70% that AOI did just negotiate a private placement 2 days ago.

and to meet the buyer's demand they finessed the stock price abruptly down to $8.

they did this through a combination of skilled media manipulation - which i understand very well - plus market manipulation on the short side, which i understand less.

i had thought the PP might be coming, so i was waiting for the dip it would cause to buy a few more shares. Now we're seeing the pop back up.

companies don't have to announce a PP until the deal closes, so it actually gets negotiated in private while the public shareholders stare, aghast, at the share price crashlet. The worst thing a retail shareholder can do is to panic.

instead, small retail shareholders can play this game. The idea is to know when your cash-consuming small cap, be it a resource explorer or an emerging research pharmaceutical, is going to want to replenish the larder.


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## Dopplegangerr

Yea I will have to try to remember that for next time because I could have bought on the dip there and saved myself 2 dollars a share like you did. Live and learn I guess?


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## humble_pie

Dopplegangerr said:


> Yea I will have to try to remember that for next time because I could have bought on the dip there and saved myself 2 dollars a share like you did. Live and learn I guess?


that's it, live & learn. In this case there's another probability that might help you.

it's the probability that the big story is for real. It's still only a probability, the story is just beginning, plenty of failure possibilities.

but if it turns out to be true, the fact that you might have paid something like $10 won't matter ...


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## Dopplegangerr

So stick it out for a while eh?

Also if you come across any other good articles mentioning them let me know ok. I will do the same


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## humble_pie

the rise in horn today may be due to this short article about a recent range resources meeting where the ever-blabby ceo peter laundau said they'll start exporting dharoor valley oil in 2012.

http://dissidentnation.com/

dissident nation is an interesting website for anyone interested in the possibility of big oil discoveries in east africa. Nominally, it is written & produced by one expat somali journalist living in minnesota.

it's one of the details that alerted me early that US military & diplomatic support has built up substantially in the region. Along with british support for the same. This website is far too slick & far too expensively maintained imho to be the work product of just one expat now living mysteriously in the US heartland.

such a website, i am thinking to myself, has to be supported by significant intelligence plus significant cash investment. Coming from high levels in washington. Just thinking.


----------



## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> here's a CNBC Africa interview with Aidan Heavey, the irishman who's CEO of Tullow.


Watched both the videos, thanks for the links.
The interview with Heavey was very insightful, as T.Gal said. This is insight that we don't often get to see/hear in our local news media and the usual boards and forums.

But...most of all..._loved_ that deep South African accent of the journalist interviewing Heavey :encouragement:
Wasn't bad looking either, so it's not just the accent ;o)
P.S. how do I subscribe to a You Tube channel on my iPhone?


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> But...most of all..._loved_ that deep South African accent of the journalist interviewing Heavey :encouragement:


Indeed! Gorgeous looking woman IMO as well, but hmmm, not as suave as Aidan! I so love those regal accents! :love-struck:


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## humble_pie

Toronto.gal said:


> ... as suave as Aidan! I so love those regal accents! :love-struck:



yes aidan the celtic warrior/bard is now girls' crush central ...


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## HaroldCrump

Bet you girls would rather have him do those interviews dressed in the traditional celtic skirt 

On the other hand, I could listen to that clipped deep Rhodesian accent of the newscaster all day long.


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## Four Pillars

Harold, here's a skill testing question for you:

South African journalist with Rhodesian accent or Amanda Lang?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Four Pillars said:


> Harold, here's a skill testing question for you:
> South African journalist with Rhodesian accent or Amanda Lang?


That's not a skill testing question, that's torture !
May I eat the cake and have it too?
After all, we are stock pickers here, not index investors ;o)


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## humble_pie

it would take more than Machiavelli to make sense of the flood of newzoids these past 2 weeks about africa oil & tullow.

my underlying theory is that AOI is still working a non-brokered private placement. A NBPP is a placement among friends. It's an efficient & economical way to raise the $$ they need to expand drilling in kenya & into ethiopia.

my theory then elaborates to say that the friends don't seem to want to pay around $8 after all. They want to see a price possibly in the $7 range. Because they are such very good friends, aoi & tullow are willing to accommodate them, goes the theory.

but exchange regulations require that a NBPP price be reasonably close to market price (fact not theory) so it's been a long campaign to drive down AOI's public share price from the 9-10 dollar range (theory not fact.)

the 2 oil explorers have mustered every media trick they know. They're unbelievably good at this. Yesterday tullow's kenya manager martin mbogo told reuters that they'd hit impenetrable rock short of target at ngame in kenya, so drilling had stopped, he said. They will be immediately moving the rig to another location called twiga, mr mbobo told the reuters free-lancer, who dutifully reported it all word-for-word.

panic promptly spread & is still spreading over the very nature of the well itself. OMG what if this storybook well, the crown prince itself, might be turning into a frog ! Share price of AOI has obliged by plunging into the $7 range.

sophia shane, longtime manager of investor relations for most of the lundin companies, has sent out an exceptionally diaphanous email that basically says nothing at all.

somebody called chris perry, director of communcations at tullow in london, sent out an email saying martin mbogo was not authorized to speak.

meanwhile citibank opines that the reuters journo made a mistake with her source, although i don't think she did.

if my theory has merit, the mbogo story was a deliberate plant.

if my theory has merit i might turn out to be a croissant with a couple brain cells after all. On the other hand if its wrong, i'm just stale toast.


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## bigbadbull

Tomorrow should be a interesting trading day for AOI, Tullow is to release their operational update for the quarter so hopefully they will spill some official information about the Ngamia-1 well in Kenya. 

There are quite a few rumours bouncing around and it would be nice to know what is really going on.


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## humble_pie

big day shaping up as tullow confirms additional oil at lower levels of the ngamia well but stops short of actual numbers; while aoi in its news release early this am puts the new additional net oil pay number at 43 metres.

during conference call this am, tullow geologist electrified listeners by suggesting that a 10-billion-barrel basin is possibly being discovered in kenya's rift valley.

http://www.thepressreleasewire.com/....jsp?actionFor=1636501&releaseSeq=0&year=2012

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/...rket-news-detail.html?announcementId=11254186

if anyone is interested & if i may make a small suggestion, i would not be buying today. Time to buy was during the past 2-3 weeks.


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## humble_pie

another region i'm interested in is newly-autonomous Kurdistan Region, carved in recent years out of northern iraq.

http://www.krg.org/articles/?lngnr=12&areanr=61&smap=03010000

it sounds like an ace destination for persons who like unspoiled travelling rather than mass tourism.

KR is a mountainous region which, like afghanistan & most of the himalayan lower levels, is chock full of mines & oil basins that have never been explored. If anyone visits this website, please notice all the foreign trade delegations coming to call. In fact, they are flooding in one after another. What they are seeking is good relations with the fledgling nation.

like every eden, though, KR has a serpent. In this case it's the jealous eye cast upon kurdistan's buried wealth by baghdad & the harsh ways in which iraq proper will make sure that it will collect its pound of flesh.

oilcos already drilling in kurdistan include talisman, marathon & the hungarian state energy company. Exxon was said to be interested in a kurdish exploration block, until baghdad told it they would cancel exxon's operating permits in southern iraq, oops. Small explorers in kurdistan region include VSE-listed canadians shamaran & western zagross.

i don't own any of these & i'm not buying at the moment because i don't know enough. But i'd love to visit that ancient biblical country, hidden on the tigris river. Tourism there is probably like it was in greece 60 years ago. Even the food sounds fascinating.


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## AshleyT

humble_pie said:


> another region i'm interested in is newly-autonomous Kurdistan Region, carved in recent years out of northern iraq.
> 
> http://www.krg.org/articles/?lngnr=12&areanr=61&smap=03010000
> 
> it sounds like an ace destination for persons who like unspoiled travelling rather than mass tourism.
> 
> KR is a mountainous region which, like afghanistan & most of the himalayan lower levels, is chock full of mines & oil basins that have never been explored. If anyone visits this website, please notice all the foreign trade delegations coming to call. In fact, they are flooding in one after another. What they are seeking is good relations with the fledgling nation.
> 
> like every eden, though, KR has a serpent. In this case it's the jealous eye cast upon kurdistan's buried wealth by baghdad & the harsh ways in which iraq proper will make sure that it will collect its pound of flesh.
> 
> oilcos already drilling in kurdistan include talisman, marathon & the hungarian state energy company. Exxon was said to be interested in a kurdish exploration block, until baghdad told it they would cancel exxon's operating permits in southern iraq, oops. Small explorers in kurdistan region include VSE-listed canadians shamaran & western zagross.
> 
> i don't own any of these & i'm not buying at the moment because i don't know enough. But i'd love to visit that ancient biblical country, hidden on the tigris river. Tourism there is probably like it was in greece 60 years ago. Even the food sounds fascinating.


I've owned WesternZagros (WZR.V) since it was spun off from Western Oil Sands some years ago now. It has been a wild ride. You can see I picked it in the 2009 CanadianMoneyForum stock picking contest. http://canadianmoneyforum.com/archive/index.php/t-454.html Alas, 2009 was not their year, but things have sure changed since then.

I've added high and low and now have 700,000 shares at a cost base of 0.56. And I'm not selling a single one. 

FWIW, Exxon has in fact been on the ground in Kurdistan since last year. They have been public about honoring both contracts to Southern Iraq and in Kurdistan. Just last week Chevron announced their entry. WZR is about to have a partner announced for their Garmian block (rumoured to be Total), and it looks like the Kurdistan Regional Government may sell their share of the block to Rosneft. Announcements are imminent and will put a firm floor on the value of WZR's interests. All this with pending wirelog/flow rate results on a monster well at Kurdamir which is estimated to have 500 meters of pay.

Exciting times, but not without a boatload of risk. The political tensions between Iraq, KRG, and Turkey are probably unparalleled. The upside is like nothing I've ever seen. The downside is that politics wipes this out in short order. This is not the place for the kids college fund.


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## Dopplegangerr

Sorry, just to clarify, you have some where around $300,000 invested in this company. Holy molly....


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## AshleyT

Dopplegangerr said:


> Sorry, just to clarify, you have some where around $300,000 invested in this company. Holy molly....


Yes, but I started much smaller. My first purchase was 10,000 shares about $2.40/share back in '08. The story is just too good, so over the past 4 years I've added a little more here and there.

I've only added with money I can afford to lose, though. I think you have to go into an investment like this with that in mind. I'm hoping that high level of risk continues to reward.


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## humble_pie

bad news today from australian Red Emperor, horn's minority partner in drilling the shabeel wells in puntland.

from RMP's news release 23 july/12:

_" Red Emperor Resources NL (ASX: RMP | AIM: RMP) provides the following update on the Shabeel North well in Puntland, Somalia which is being drilled by operator Horn Petroleum Corp. ("Horn").

" An open hole Drill Stem Test (DST) was conducted over a 50 metre gross interval (between 1,910m - 1,960m) which contained several sands in the upper portion of the primary Jesomma Formation which had oil shows. The test recovered fresh water (1200 ppm Cl-) without any traces of oil. The current plan is to drill ahead to the originally planned depth of approximately 2,400 metres which will penetrate the remaining section of Jesomma sands at which point the entire section will be evaluated by electrical logging to determine if further testing is warranted. "_


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## Dopplegangerr

Wow I have just taken a beating on this stock since I bought in. Humble how is your crystal ball working these days. Are they going to find more oil, is this just negative sentiment in the markets that are bringing this down


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## humble_pie

blockbuster announcement today of western zagros's 40% partnership with russia's gazprom vaulted WZR up .15 to 1.27 on record hi volume of more than 6 milliion shares, although it ended the day at 1.19.

http://cnrp.marketwire.com/client/westernzagros/release.jsp?actionFor=1647854

ashleyT if you return to these moose pastures, i have a question for which i haven't been able to find answers. It has to do with this kind of rozneft partnering, also with the similar large farmout that africa oil did recently with marathon & an innovative newcomer.

the way i see it, selling huge percentages of one's ownership to partners or farmout partners does mean reducing ownership level. Therefore it triggers some kind of de facto dilution of stock, even though no new shares have been issued. Nevertheless the original interest has been cut by a quarter, a third or even a half.

yet markets often respond positively, as happened today with WZR.

it's true that western zagros will soon wind up with $56 million, just as africa oil will soon wind up with $45 million. But i'm saying to myself, So ? these were partial sales of themselves ? cannabilizing monetizations, if you please ? self-guttings ? at such an early stage ? the original exploration company is already quitting the party ? are these companies becoming ghosts of their former selves ? they're still babies but already they're retiring ?

i don't quite understand this. Any light you can shed would be greatly appreciated.


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## AshleyT

humble_pie said:


> blockbuster announcement today of western zagros's 40% partnership with russia's gazprom vaulted WZR up .15 to 1.27 on record hi volume of more than 6 milliion shares, although it ended the day at 1.19.
> 
> http://cnrp.marketwire.com/client/westernzagros/release.jsp?actionFor=1647854
> 
> ashleyT if you return to these moose pastures, i have a question for which i haven't been able to find answers. It has to do with this kind of rozneft partnering, also with the similar large farmout that africa oil did recently with marathon & an innovative newcomer.
> 
> the way i see it, selling huge percentages of one's ownership to partners or farmout partners does mean reducing ownership level. Therefore it triggers some kind of de facto dilution of stock, even though no new shares have been issued. Nevertheless the original interest has been cut by a quarter, a third or even a half.
> 
> yet markets often respond positively, as happened today with WZR.
> 
> it's true that western zagros will soon wind up with $56 million, just as africa oil will soon wind up with $45 million. But i'm saying to myself, So ? these were partial sales of themselves ? cannabilizing monetizations, if you please ? self-guttings ? at such an early stage ? the original exploration company is already quitting the party ? are these companies becoming ghosts of their former selves ? they're still babies but already they're retiring ?
> 
> i don't quite understand this. Any light you can shed would be greatly appreciated.


Actually, Gazprom bought 40% interest in the G block from the KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government). WZR has never owned it. TLM used to own the 40% as WZR's partner, but gave it up to focus on Kurdamir. WZR also owns 40% of the Kurdamir block. The G block and K block used to be a single block that was split when TLM decided to bail on the G block. WZR is still partnered with TLM on its Kurdamir interests/K block. 

TLM gave up interest in the G block before the big flow rates at the Sarq sidetrack because the surely would not have given it up after that discovery. The KRG owns the other 20% of each block, and there was a rumour that Rosneft was sniffing around for that 20%, but I can't see KRG selling out of the blocks completely. I was postulating Rosneft upthread for the partner buy in, but it turned out to be Gazprom.

So no dilution of WZR's interest with this annoucement. TLM and WZR were equally responsible for 50% operations costs on the blocks prior to the split and shared the profits. After the split, WZR became responsible for 100% of the operations costs with the knowledge that 50% of the operations costs would be refunded to them when a new partner was announced. That's where the $56million comes from. Gazprom's buy in and payment of their share of operations on the G block to date.

KRG has set up very attractive profit sharing contracts that has attracted international Oil companies with Total and Gazprom announcing this week joining Exxon and Chevron. This is a big deal as it gives the KRG a vote of confidence in their feud with Baghdad who continue to maintain that the Kurdistan contracts are illegal. They want only service contracts for oil like they have set up in the South with minimal chance of profit for any oil company, yet all the risk of exploration/wildcatting.

This has been a long time coming. Much uncertainty remains, of course, but it's hard to put a ceiling on the potential. Many believe they are sitting on one of the largest 15 oilfields in the world at Kurdamir. Flow rates in the cretaceous are pending, but during drilling there was indication of multiple zones higher up, so it may take some time to prove up the size of this monster with additional wells. K3 will be spudded in the next couple of months as per TLM conference call yesterday.

Lots more to learn if you're interested. The WZR website is excellent. Lisa at IR is fantastic. Do your own research and diligence. This is a risky play, but in the same ballpark as AOI. The question is if it can reward to that level.


----------



## humble_pie

& she's back ! africa oil crosses the $10 barrier once again.

co has climbed from the $7 & $8 recent lows of its financing period. AOI raised $45 million through farmouts plus another $45M in future payments. The financing continues as africa oil seeks more partners.

in kenya aoi is drilling at a 2nd site near lake turkana & heavily rumoured to be drilling a 3rd at the same time. A 4th drill is being mobilized to ethiopia. Company shrugged off the 2 dusters its spinoff horn petroleum drilled in puntland, saying it will drill elsewhere at prospective properties in the somali state, although doubters fret that horn is running out of money.

what i see when i look at the map is not oil but politics. In one corner is the west. London, washington & their allies want to build a pipeline from south sudan that will collect oil from uganda & kenya & route to a deep-water terminal to be built in northern kenya.

in the opposite corner is al shabaab, the new al-quaeda in this islamic region. 

china, which has already made huge inroads in resource-rich africa, occupies a 3rd corner.

everybody else, including odd bods like canada & turkey, is crowded into the 4th corner. (canada would like to have a presence in east africa, says harper's government) (turkey hasn't forgotten that it once ruled the entire region under the ottoman empire).

XE, the former infamous US blackwater private militia, is supplying armies of mercenaries & securitiy guards via south africa to control safety in east africa. To be especially protected are the camps, operations, transport systems & personnel of the western oil drillers. Every now & then one reads that the mercenaries have killed civilians as they hunt down pirates, terrorists, kidnappers & radical islamists. As a matter of fact, in an ongoing scandal the lundin interests (precursors of africa oil) are charged in sweden with ethnic cleansing & slaughter of entire villages in sudan.

in this global struggle context, a medium-sized oil industry in east africa, or even a small oil industry, would be a prize for the west. No need to have blockbuster gushers. Just enough oil to build that pipeline from newly-separated pro-west south sudan to a new deep-water port at lamu on the indian ocean would be strategic for washington, london, south africa & new delhi.


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## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> turkey hasn't forgotten that it once ruled the entire region under the ottoman empire.


LOL hp, but don't you mean more precisely: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has not forgotten? :rolleyes2:

*Erdogan’s counterproductive ambition*
http://www.economist.com/node/21561918

AOI, I believe, is still CMF's best stock pick of the year, and by who else but the smartest member. YTD: 546.84%. :triumphant:


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## Dopplegangerr

I am still down on this stock (I picked the worst time to jump in) I am just hoping I can sell and not take a loss. 
Now if I had gotten in at the beginning of the year it would be a much different story.


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## HaroldCrump

Dopplegangerr said:


> I am still down on this stock (I picked the worst time to jump in) I am just hoping I can sell and not take a loss.


Why the pessimism?
Faith, my friend.
Hang in there.


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## Toronto.gal

You were up 12% at one point. 

When you jump in a little late in the game with a new stock, don't get greedy and book some profits. 

I would not worry 2 much.


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## humble_pie

horn petroleum is up 58% on the day to .54. No definite explanation so far. Rumours only.

i lost my head this am & bought western zagros in the tfsa.


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## Toronto.gal

And I didn't buy any at $.25 cents when 2,000 sh would have cost just $500. :rolleyes2:

Bonne chance avec WZR!


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## Dopplegangerr

I was not up 12% I was still down a huge percent. I had said I would be alright if we had more days where the stock was up 12%. I have been down since the day I bought. A main reason I am keen to bail is there is no options market, something I am getting into more and more.


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## Toronto.gal

Sorry Dopple, my bad. :stupid:

I think you may have bought close to the 52 week high & then the roller-coaster changed direction, but you must be getting closer to your buying price now.


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## Dopplegangerr

Its alright I bought at the wrong time but at least I didnt sell in the 7 dollar range and take a massive loss. I purchased my shares at 10.60, pretty near the top but it is heading back up so I am feeling fine. Options has really taken control of my imagination now though, I have read a half dozen books on it and am starting to very slowly put some spreads out there. I want to keep my permanent dividend payers and then the rest of my capital go towards options. AOI isnt in line with that but I will hold as long as I need to.


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## HaroldCrump

Dopple, stock is at $10.30.
If you want to, get out right now with a small profit, incl. commissions.


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## humble_pie

trading halt this am in shamaran pending news. It's another keith hill/lundin company, this time in kurdistan.

meanwhile hill is fund-raising for AOI in sweden today & london tomorrow. It looks like prospective buyers will be happy to pay north of $10.

hmmmn possibly lundin interests are selling SNM in order to plunk the $$ into AOI ...


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## humble_pie

good grief. I've just glimpsed the shamaran news release. Broker had not even delivered the NR yet.

SNM is not being sold, at least not as of today. Co has just released the test results from its altrush well in kurdistan region. Wildly, insanely, spectacular. Beyond anyone's imaginings. Keith hill, who is chairman as well as well as CEO of aoi, is going to have his hands full.

last week i bought 12000 shares of snm in the tfsa ...


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## Dopplegangerr

HaroldCrump said:


> Dopple, stock is at $10.30.
> If you want to, get out right now with a small profit, incl. commissions.



10.60 is break even


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## humble_pie

i sold enough AOI at 10.32 this am to recuperate all my costs plus about 12%, which seems like a fair & reasonable return on an investment begun in march/12.

the current rise into the $10 range is the runup to announcement of results from the twiga well in kenya. Financing is coming in & AOI is moving right along its ambitious path of exploratory drilling across the horn of africa.

why sell ? it's not just to book the profit that toronto.gal frequently advocates, or to continue playing the market with the "free" shares she likes so much. I sold some because i'm not sure that the companies crowding into east africa - these days they are major companies, many of the world's biggest energies are going there - i'm not sure that they have found the Promised Land.

i've posted before that, to my eyes, the fundamental story is political, not a story of hydrocarbon discovery. The fundamental story imho is washington establishing hegemony in east africa. Pulling ahead of rival china. Destroying al quaeda in the sub-sahel.

for washington to succeed at this ambitious program, there has to be economic growth. Kenya's traditional economy based on coffee & tourism is probably mature by now, cannot grow any more. Enter a nascent hydrocarbon industry. It's good to go for 30 years.

i'm not implying that the hydrocarbons are not there. Large companies ranging from china's cnook to france's total to italy's eni to apache, anadarko & marathon from the US of A don't spend billions on hot air. They've gone to east africa because they know they are going to find something. For washington & london, plain old something will be good enough.

to paraphrase osler in medicine, Never ask what kind of an oil company a 3rd world country has. Ask instead what kind of a country has an oil company.


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## humble_pie

overnight leaks in kenya & sweden that AOI's twiga well in kenya is successful sparked rally today.

company issued brief news release early this am confirming that twiga has oil but drilling results will not be announced until early-to-mid-november as scheduled.

the rally appears to be losing steam. It was not surprising imho that aoi & tullow would find oil. As some have commented, aoi is undergoing the biggest funding campaign of its entire existence. Q: during this campaign, which well are they going to choose to drill ? A: the best prospect, of course.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...News&feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43

so the real boomlet or floplet will come with the drilling results, still a few days or couple weeks off.


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## humble_pie

*oil discovered at twiga*

.

30 metres of net pay, says AOI's 50/50 partner Tullow on mon 26 nov/12

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...News&feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43

africa oil's own news release w details:

http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com...oil-discov-tsx-venture-aoi-201211260836953001

AOI also trades in sweden where stk is down more than 15% in early hours this am. I'm no geo, but when all is said & done i suspect it will turn out that this was a nice find but not a spectacular find, plus company explains how this well was hard to drill. Something about a tight frac. Moderators' rules against porn prevent further discussion.


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## humble_pie

isn't this wonderful. AOI plunges more than 20% on the news.

it's exactly what i was hoping, why i pared my holding. I'll buy more in due course :cool-new:

like dr osler famously said, never ask what kind of an oil well a 3rd world country has. Ask instead what kind of a 3rd world country an oil well has.


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## humble_pie

isn't this wonderful. Yesterday i bt 1000 sh in the tfsa at 8.50. This am i sld the 1000 sh at 8.70, about half an hour before keith hill started his conference call that dynamited the price of AOI to smithereens.

i'll buy back. This oilco, like all the others in the Horn of africa, is in bed so deep w washington & london & so anti-al-quaeda & so get-ahead-of-china that, whether any longs or shorts like it or not, there is. definitely. going. to. be. an. oil. industry. in. east. africa.


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## Toronto.gal

Vraiment super! 

I'm not worried about all the money you're making in the TFSA, but about your trading fees. :biggrin:

Congrats on your flawless timing, from the moment you opened this thread!


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## Dopplegangerr

Anyone have any interesting news on this company of late?


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## Eclectic12

Anyone interested at current prices?


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## humble_pie

i still have a few shares & follow this company.

what seems to be happening is that they are defining the oil basin that will eventually support a hoped-for pipeline from south sudan to a new deep-water port to be built on the south kenya coast. The pipeline will pick up oil from sudan, ethiopia, kenya, uganda & - long shot - somalia.

there are a lot of wells by now that are being analyzed at this moment. A major problem seems to be that all of the wells have problems. Not one has spectacular, uninterrupted oil flow. Some have come back dusters.

it's frustrating for the drillers, because they know enough oil is present throughout the greater rift basin. The question is how to get it out? if they have to go to fracking (has been discussed) there will be gigantic additional capital costs, wells will have to be re-drilled, big new investors will have to be found ... shudder ...

in addition tullow (drill partner) has run into political challenges in uganda, in addition there is increasing al-shabaab (al-quaeda) trouble in kenya, in addition somali properties are still refractory, bref AOI's agenda is full of problems.

my specific answer to you is that the price looks tempting indeed, but i'm resisting. This is because i already have a few shares (believe it or not i still have a gain!) & i'm not one who averages down.

if i were a starting investor willing to commit wild crazy new money, i might think africa oil looks interesting. Certainly the overall project has the massive support of the US & british governments at highest levels. The regional pipeline will be one of the best forms of insurance against growth of radical al-shabaab in East Africa.


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## HaroldCrump

I have been completely out for a while.
I sold my remaining shares above $10 a while back.
I have not waded back in, mainly due to the geo-political uncertainties, oil prices, and other factors.
I still have it on my watchlist, and sometimes follow its news out of inquisitiveness.

It is indeed tempting at these levels to wade back in.
I will probably wait for this current phase of oil correction to play itself out, and then contemplate where it stands.


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## Eclectic12

humble_pie said:


> ... my specific answer to you is that the price looks tempting indeed, but i'm resisting. This is because i already have a few shares (believe it or not i still have a gain!) & i'm not one who averages down.


Thanks for the detailed answer ... it is appreciated.
In my case, I have a few shares left but not many (something like 80% sold at the higher marks) ... so of adding a few.




humble_pie said:


> ... if i were a starting investor willing to commit wild crazy new money, i might think africa oil looks interesting. Certainly the overall project has the massive support of the US & british governments at highest levels...


That's where for me ... it would be a small part of the higher risk section and would also be only part of the money available.




HaroldCrump said:


> ... I will probably wait for this current phase of oil correction to play itself out, and then contemplate where it stands.


That's where I was thinking of partially wading in & have some spare funds if it became cheaper.
Trouble is I tend to be busy when the "cheaper" times arrive and don't always take advantage ... :biggrin:


Cheers


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## HaroldCrump

HaroldCrump said:


> And somewhere along the way, it crossed the magic $1B market cap.
> In my post from barely a month ago, I had referenced that it has a market cap of $500M.


2 & half years after this post, Africa Oil is now heading back down to that $1B market cap range.
Another day of 2%+ correction, and it will dip below the $1B level.


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## londoncalling

I remember this thread started a decade ago and although I did not invest in AOI many members did well trading this stock. I haven't thought about it in years but heard this week that it has been added to the TSX. Haven't looked closely but the share price hasn't really gone anywhere since 2014.


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## Eclectic21

Someone who bought in 2014 ($10 to $2.40) and did nothing else, one probably isn't happy.
Buying in 2020 or adding to what one already owned for about $0.80 would probably have one happy with $2.60 at the moment.

Definitely something to trade instead of buy and hold. 


Cheers


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