# What are your current investment activities?



## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

A question for the forum members. What are you current investment activities during this market turmoil?

Here are mine, things I've been doing for the past month and that I intend to keep doing for the upcoming months:


 I recently put 10K into a 2.25% GIC because I think the BoC will cut rates
 Re-calculate my allocations vs goals. My current targets are: 40% fixed income, 30% stocks, 20% gold, 10% cash
 I'm evaluating how much money to add to my RRSP by running some preliminary tax calculations
 I'm debating with myself whether to buy some energy stocks. Most likely I'll put a low bid limit order on XEG or ZEO


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Aside from the energy sector speculation, I also plan to buy more of the broad stock index (XIC or ZCN) in 2016. The timing will be guided by when my bonds mature in summer and fall. So the earliest I would buy more of the TSX is in the summer.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i am in the process of lovingly hand-painting a large sign which i will hang over my mantel that says "i will not buy energy or commodity stocks ever again"

you can, roughly, predict that people will need coffee, computers, cigarettes, toilet paper etc but coal, copper, oil, zinc, nickel and so on, is a much more abstract calculation, the supply and demand equation is much more back-of-a-napkin and certainly, undoubtedly more volatile

we don't need to own commodities or oil, there is not the slightest need to ever have either in a portfolio

i wish i had fully learned that lesson years ago

others disagree, and with you james, will look to buy, good on them, i will from now on just take a pass

not quite, i will hold my suncor as a hedge against an inevitable rising loonie-falling usd move 

but that is it, all gas and mining stocks are gone, over the cliff, good riddance

it's kimberely-clark for me, diapers, toilet paper and tampons ... sweet


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

fatcat, I think the energy stocks can go a lot lower. I'm going to put in some very low bids on the energy ETFs. I'm talking about a limit buy order perhaps 30% to 40% below current market price. My hope is that in the poor liquidity, as institutions dump these out of panic that I may actually pick up some shares. I will buy only at very steep discounts and my orders may never fill at all.

I don't _need_ the energy ETF. But the institutions must dump them. I like that set up.


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## Moneytoo (Mar 26, 2014)

After getting both bottoms (Aug 24th and Sep 28-29, 2015), I analyzed and realized once again that "you win some, you lose some": https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1ioUZwTOFZtNkwtb2NqTERkTFU/view?usp=docslist_api  And since at this point agressive saving & investing remains our top propiority, on Halloween I put together this plan for the next 6 months (till the end of April'16):

1) Add 20K to my RRSP by end of Feb (5K/month)
2) Add 20K to husband's RRSP by end of Feb (borrow up to 10K from HISA if short - to be repaid from tax return)
3) Add 5K to my TFSA in March (to max it out for 2015)
4) Use tax return to max out both our TFSAs for 2016 
5) Find a new advisor and invest 10K in Universal Life (in lieu of reduced TFSA contribution room)

At the moment we're on track and our portfolio is down, yet perfectly balanced and right on target (87% equities tilted to US, 13% non-equities - half individual bonds, the other half preferred shares, gold and inverse volatility ETFs) 

Our daughter is going to the states on march break, so I exchanged ~$700 CAD for ~$480 USD in my Zenbanx account (to save 15-20 bucks if the rate gets cut today lol)

(I think it was you who raised the eyebrows when I said that "I love risking" when I joined - will go check... lol Upd. No, it was *Goldstone*...)


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

fatcat said:


> we don't need to own commodities or oil, there is not the slightest need to ever have either in a portfolio


Tonight I've been analyzing the holdings of XEG and projecting a price (by looking at underlying and building up the NAV price) in the scenario that energy stocks keep falling in a bear market.

Currently XEG is 8.57. My projection if the stocks continue in their current direction is *XEG around 5.90*. That's a further 31% decline from here.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Tonight I've been analyzing the holdings of XEG and projecting a price (by looking at underlying and building up the NAV price) in the scenario that energy stocks keep falling in a bear market.
> 
> Currently XEG is 8.57. My projection if the stocks continue in their current direction is *XEG around 5.90*. That's a further 31% decline from here.


we just have no idea ... its a black hole ... i keep asking myself "why own them when you can own more predictable stocks " ? lots of money has been made on portfolios built around defensive stocks

xeg tracks the price of wti pretty closely so you are predicting oil at 20 ... could be


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4beach said:


> fatcat, I think the energy stocks can go a lot lower. I'm going to put in some very low bids on the energy ETFs. I'm talking about a limit buy order perhaps 30% to 40% below current market price. My hope is that in the poor liquidity, as institutions dump these out of panic that I may actually pick up some shares. I will buy only at very steep discounts and my orders may never fill at all.
> 
> I don't _need_ the energy ETF. But the institutions must dump them. I like that set up.



james why not sell puts? it's a practice tailor-made for the above situation.

here's the thing: put in a limit buy order far below market price & the wretched system won't give you back a nickel. Not even a farthing or a sou.

but sell a put at the same price level & the system will give you lovely $$.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

> Currently XEG is 8.57. My projection if the stocks continue in their current direction is XEG around 5.90. That's a further 31% decline from here.


 than why you don't short?!


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## Sasquatch (Jan 28, 2012)

I just deposited the max amount for 2016 into our TFSA HIS accounts.
All our other investments( RRSP and non reg.) are in three MAWER mutual funds, 2 of which are balanced ones.
So I'm just sitting back and going for the ride  Should be interesting


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

gibor said:


> than why you don't short?!


A couple reasons. First, it's a bad idea to short so far below the moving averages. My experience has been that you can't short something that's already so beaten up. If anything, you want to wait until it rallies and looks like it may be recovering before you short it.

Also generally I don't like shorting so late into a bearish game. Instead I will sit aside and look for opportunities to buy. But for example I *could* short Canadian banks, which are only now just entering their bearish phase (possibly).


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I'm going to put in some very low bids on the energy ETFs. I'm talking about a limit buy order perhaps 30% to 40% below current market price.



actually i don't know any broker that will accept orders that are 30-40% off market. They can't send such orders to the exchanges. The exchanges have kill fees that apply to unexecuted OTM orders after a set number of minutes, so a broker sending a lowball order would be paying kill fees repeatedly, all day long, day after day. Which is something they won't do.

brokers can't keep lowball orders in their networks, either, because these require too much manual work. Instead, they usually block lowball orders with messages stating they can't accept. What they are doing is transferring the obligation to monitor the security & work the order by hand back to the client.

activities for me these days? very few, other than checking up on my hibernating ITM puts as they sleep in their bear caves. So far, so good, no assignments, the puts at risk still have healthy enough premiums in their bid prices that counterparties are not likely to assign.

i'm planning to look into the baltic dry index & other shipping news soon. Today i spied a sentence mentioning that bond traders - always the most aggressive - have recently begun to cluster around the shipping indexes & the dry bulk charter rates, which have skewed. They say that dry bulk shippers - coal, iron ore, wheat - are the first to turn up in any market recovery, twitching & shivering long before oil tankers & container ships come back to life.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie that doesn't sound right. Imagine a volatile stock whose price dances all over the place. You can definitely put limit orders into the order book, I've done it even at prices that are for example double the "last price".

I guess I'll find out. TDDI has one such order for me right now, and shows the order as open.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

you're serious, td took an order from you that's 40% above or below the current bid/ask? blimey

in thinly traded stocks the broker should not be operating on the last price, it could be weeks ago. Broker should operate on the current B/A. A realistic price is somewhere inside this range.

occasionally i've keyed an error during order entry, i've always gotten back a rejection that the order is too far off the market price


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie I will check that order status and get back to you about whether it's still open. I wrote a range of 20% to 40% here because I don't want to reveal my actual price.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

*a baltic dry with lemon twist please*

this place looks terrible
not a sign of hope

.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

james4beach said:


> humble_pie I will check that order status



did you send it in this evening though. Maybe they leave orders for the morning shift to check in the premarket?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> did you send it in this evening though. Maybe they leave orders for the morning shift to check in the premarket?


I submitted it around 1 pm during active market. Yes TDDI currently shows it as open, it's a limit buy order approximately 30% below market.

"Status: Open with X,000 shares remaining"


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

Mostly holding GICs, long SPX puts aprox 1% of portfolio, DJI breaks below 15370 will look to buy puts on a retrace rally that retraces ( near top of wave C of 2 up of 3 down) fib .618 of the decline from Dec. No break of 15370 on DJI looking to add to short positions after completion of contracting triangle & near the top of a 5 wave rally to all time highs  @ last Fridays close daily sentiment index S&P 10 day average fell to 8.8% bulls the 2nd lowest reading in the 29 year history. The lowest 10 day average reading was 5.3% on March 3 2009. The DJI could see a new high unconfirmed by most of the other indexes. Looking @ the price structure a new high will not change the fact that the 09 lows should be taken out along with the gains from the 82 low


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> this place looks terrible
> not a sign of hope
> 
> .
> ...


1100 ft ship cost less to rent then a Ferrari ( zero hedge write up )
Rates for a Capesize - class ship plumeted 92% since Aug to $1563 a day amid slowing growth in China. Less the one third of the daily cost to rent a Ferrari F40 for a day (Blumberg)


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

Buying stocks. There are ridiculous value plays available right now, many Canadian small cap stocks trading at or near book value with huge cash balances. This is a very inefficient market.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

1000 of ry yesterday 65.30
1000 of csh.un yesterday 11.89
1500 of fm yesterday 2.37

I will sell soon was just a trade

I find it very hard to sit on cash ,still have over 100k to spend


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

1980z28 said:


> 1000 of ry yesterday 65.30
> 1000 of csh.un yesterday 11.89
> 1500 of fm yesterday 2.37
> 
> ...


Just sold FM at 3.07 also gone is csh.un 12.10

Will keep ry for the div than sell


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## lost in space (Aug 31, 2015)

Saw this over on Grath's blog



> By the way, Scotiabank economists had this to say the other day about Canadian banks: “In our view this is the best buying opportunity in the space since February 2009 and we would be aggressively buying the group. We expect a significant rally in bank stocks as the market gets greater clarity on the Canadian economy as it adjust once again to the commodity cycle.”


It was back in 2013 I was sitting on a lot of cash and I noticed comments about the "blood bath" in the REIT sector and sure enough prices, due to QE, were off some 30% so I bought in, quite heavy I might add. Well prices came back and then WHAMO the bear market hit. Hard as it is to believe I'm down some 25% from those low prices. I feel for anyone who bought a while back! So now I'm thinking of doing the something with the banks. National Bank, Laurentian bank, CIBC and BMO are way down while the rest are kind of holding even.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

1980z28 said:


> Just sold FM at 3.07 also gone is csh.un 12.10
> 
> Will keep ry for the div than sell


sold 1000 ry @ 68.30

Will buy bmo next week


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

lost in space said:


> So now I'm thinking of doing the something with the banks. National Bank, Laurentian bank, CIBC and BMO are way down while the rest are kind of holding even.


Do others think banks are a buying opportunity here? Is it time to double up on that bank exposure, or alternatively to wait longer to see what happens with the markets?


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## fisher14 (Jan 30, 2013)

Looking to buy into a few ETF's...mainly xdv. Still waiting though.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

james4beach said:


> Do others think banks are a buying opportunity here? Is it time to double up on that bank exposure, or alternatively to wait longer to see what happens with the markets?


I have 50k to start a position in TD soon. I`m waiting till after the banks report...


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

past couple days i sold puts in RIG, bought BAM, sold BAM calls, thinking to set up a mildly bullish diagonal call spread in IWM which is a transmogrified Russell 2000 index ETF.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

IWM is a pretty good Russell 2000 index, it's a key vehicle for traders. What do you mean by transmogrified, by the way?

R2K has been particularly weak in this selloff


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

^^

maybe i'll do a call spread in QQQ instead. or both.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Still selling premium (mostly call spreads). Up $3000 so far this year. Got a scare when CMG popped last week (been short calls in it for a while) but it is coming down nicely. Intend to wait and see if we get a bounce before doing any new trades. Still bearish for the longer term.


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## AlMansur (Jan 25, 2016)

MY money will be in Real Estate, not for the short term, but long-term (at least over 5 years).
I was in Equities 75% last year, which I converted to Money Market now 100%. Not because MM pays much, no, but because Equities provided a single digit Return, whereas my return on Real Estate investment yields around 10% (both positive Cash Flows and the gains on MV).
In fact, this year I'm planning to withdraw funds from my RRSP MM, to buy another investment property, putting about 25-35% down payment, borrow the rest from the high street bank.
As the house prices rise even further, some friends are pooling their resources to buy together and reap the rewards. We can't predict the market, but it's unlikely the interest rates are going to rise drastically, anytime soon, so why not invest in RE for the next few years!


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

For a trade
1000 bmo 72.32

Also looking at su,cve


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

AlMansur said:


> MY money will be in Real Estate, not for the short term, but long-term (at least over 5 years).
> I was in Equities 75% last year, which I converted to Money Market now 100%. Not because MM pays much, no, but because Equities provided a single digit Return, whereas my return on Real Estate investment yields around 10% (both positive Cash Flows and the gains on MV).
> In fact, this year I'm planning to withdraw funds from my RRSP MM, to buy another investment property, putting about 25-35% down payment, *borrow the rest from the high street bank.
> * *As the house prices rise even further*, some friends are pooling their resources to buy together and reap the rewards. We can't predict the market, but it's unlikely the interest rates are going to rise drastically, anytime soon, so why not invest in RE for the next few years!


 ... not in Alberta now ... high leveraging, dealing with nightmare tenants and potential "friends as business partners" and questionable future liquidity in 5 years time, nothing to say about interest rates forecast - no thanks.


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## Nerd Investor (Nov 3, 2015)

Sitting on a bit of cash, will keep occasionally writing puts on US value stocks (though I have some longer term ones outstanding locking up some margin). The last year ++ has involved loading up on various companies in the oil sector and cost averaging down as it kept dropping. So most of the next year will be a bit of a waiting game for me, directing most of my other free cash flow towards the mortgage.


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

Sitting mostly on cash. Starting to buy energy stocks, both high quality dividend growers and small-time 10-bagger candidates (translation: bankruptcy candidates).


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

Definitely load up on oil, everyone that followed that path is reaping huge returns. Baytex at $16?!! What a deal, it used to be $40!


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

CPA Candidate said:


> Baytex at $16?!! What a deal, it used to be $40!


I first bought at $17, thank you very much! :biggrin:


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

CPA Candidate said:


> Definitely load up on oil, everyone that followed that path is reaping huge returns. Baytex at $16?!! What a deal, it used to be $40!


I take the above to mean you are not touching oil. Maybe I am wrong and it is just a flippant comment.

Move this back to 2008/2009 when I bought MX at $8 for the third time (near term) after $19, and $17 buys. "Definitely load up on MX, everyone that followed that path is reaping huge returns. MX at $19?!! What a deal, it used to be $36!"

Feel free to substitute literally hundreds of different stocks, mutual funds and ETFs into the above line of thinking.

Pretty near everyone can parrot the line "buy low, sell high", but when it comes time for the neurons to actually fire and get the *** controlled by that brain out of the armchair and over to the computer to execute a trade that has more than average chances of "buying low", the investor remains in the armchair.

My oil buys have lost half their value in Canadian dollars, but I own what 10, 30, maybe even 100 times the number of barrels of oil I did a year ago. Which of those two facts is likely to be the dominant truth on my finances in the long run? Even in the very likely case that LRE is bankrupt in a few days/weeks, I expect that 5 years out it will turn out that I did well. Maybe "it is different this time" will be true, but maybe like every time before, it won't be.

Janus gets it, I wonder if anyone else does. Everyone out of oil can get started today and have a 50% head start on me. I wonder if anyone will. Price is transient, value is more permanent.

Then consider what are the top 3 things of utility to human existence today: water, air and surely ... oil. Oil is transportation. It is agriculture, it is plastics and composites. We are not talking gold here, oil has serious utility. People who think oil will be deprecated in favour of something else within 20 or 50 years are delusional. Yes oil will follow wood, whale oil, coal etc. into the dustbin of energy history eventually, but that day is a long, long way off.

I noted some 2 or 3 years ago that I went something like 14 straight months with zero buy or sell trades. Nothing was so obviously over valued that I could be compelled to sell, neither was anything so obviously under valued that I could be compelled to buy. I had a nicely balanced portfolio that was chugging away spinning off dividends and just left it alone. I was waiting for more "interesting" times. I suggest that those interesting times are afoot in energy.

hboy43


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

hboy43 said:


> Then consider what are the top 3 things of utility to human existence today: water, air and surely ... oil. Oil is transportation. It is agriculture, it is plastics and composites. We are not talking gold here, oil has serious utility. People who think oil will be deprecated in favour of something else within 20 or 50 years are delusional. Yes oil will follow wood, whale oil, coal etc. into the dustbin of energy history eventually, but that day is a long, long way off.



Only a fraction of oil is used for those things. The majority is for people driving around aimlessly in more vehicle than they need to go to malls to buy stuff they dont need. Electric vehicles will be here within 5 years and then we wont need anywhere near 90 million bbls a day on this planet.


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

Right now I have incredibly illiquid stable assets (farmland) that throw off widely variable income (crop production).

I am trying now to use ETF equities to balance that out with liquid assets with moderately variable prices throwing off stable cash flow in dividends and distributions.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

an oil patcher edges a step towards the light & the sweet. Pressure pumper Trican inked a deal moments ago with private US Keane Group to sell most of its US business for $200 million USD ($285 CAD) plus a 10% stake in keane withh 2 seats on keane's board.

what's left for one of calgary's finest drillers, one that has been beavering away for months at selling assets to pay down bank debt & stave off bankruptcy? trican will get to keep its US geological services & industrial services divisions, plus all of its operations in canada & outside territorial US of A.

only months ago, trican had no sustaining income, rigs idled on standby, overwhelming debt, appeared to be headed straight for the dustbin. Today's news says that TCW will apply the $285M to debt. Next covenant due date has been pushed back to september 2016. The company has negotiated new credit terms with its bankers. Survival is looking good.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

hboy43 what energy do you own. We seem to have like minds. This could really turn around very quickly. Saudi Arabia is done, and it was only a matter of time. Early days, but still. They don't want to offload $30 oil when they could be selling 1/3 as much for $100. If they can turn it around they will...and all they need to do is STOP overproducing oil. Easy peasy. So what has the most upside potential.

I'm avoiding SU, looking at HSE and CPG for some upswing? I have BTE at $10 and wont buy more and some CVE (down about 25%) and LRE (way off), but need something else. What's your call here?


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

Just threw a bit of money into Baytex ($2.50), Meg energy ($4.50), and Helmerich & Payne in the US (much larger position in the latter). More to come.


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Chris L said:


> hboy43 what energy do you own. What's your call here?


LRE, BTE, ECA, HSE. I don't have a call on anything specific. My call is to get asses into the space. If you want greater certainty of avoiding losses, you go with something integrated like HSE which has only come off by half to 60%. If you are willing to take your chances on multi baggers, you go into the junior sphere. Maybe you pick up a range of companies in various states of distress, maybe the worst gets you a 5 bagger, maybe it goes bankrupt, but the 3 or 4 positions in better shape more than make up for the potential bankruptcy eventually.

I don't like SU either. Its price range has really been no different than the average behaviour of any stock in any industry in any average year. It is as if there has been no oil chaos of late. Now they have cherry picked COS, so that is some new upside. It seems like ENB, impervious to sensible valuations for long periods of time. The people want what they want I guess. What we want here I think for maximum benefit eventually are candidates that spook investors at least a little bit and SU isn't it. Don't get me wrong, SU will likely do better than say a bank over 5 years, so if that is your comfort level, go for it.

Just to be very clear, LRE is effectively a coin toss at this point. Closed today at $0.29 which suggests ever so slightly better than even chances. In a month or so we should know if we get $0.52 or if we get $0. Actually might know in days if we get $0, knowing the $0.52 will take longer. If I actually pull this rabbit out of the hat, I will get ~0 return over my years involvement, a most excellent result of late in the oil space if it comes to pass. I could then theoretically use some of the proceeds to buy back the SU I sold at ~$35 along the way for maybe about $30 and come around full circle in pretty good shape.

hboy43


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

BTE is an interesting play. I've got money in more integrated, O&G assets, like HSE, CNQ. Long-term they will survive but short-term they are taking a hit. 

I think SU under or around $30 is a decent buy.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

hboy43 said:


> Maybe you pick up a range of companies in various states of distress, maybe the worst gets you a 5 bagger, maybe it goes bankrupt, but the 3 or 4 positions in better shape more than make up for the potential bankruptcy eventually.


The thing is, and I'm just starting to realize this, it's also quite likely the scenario goes something like this: Of your 5 small cap oil picks, 2 go bankrupt, 1 is a 5 bagger after a future recovery, and 2 get bought out for the same price you paid (because you missed the bottom by 40+%), and you end up essentially breaking even for all that risk you took on.

M&A activities of the strong taking over the weak can wreak havoc on one's plan to buy a collection of potential 5-10 baggers and hope a couple make it big. It really skews the risk/reward of the scenario.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Sold CSE today for a 30% gain. Plan to reallocate 70% into a low beta dividend aristocrat. The rest will either go into an oil stock or a REIT. Can't raise cash fast enough to start buying when there is some upside.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Which oil would you consider 5 baggers? MEG might be one of them. Any others? WCP looks to be fairly safe in the short-long term as far as survivability goes. BET is probably a coin toss I would say. Could be big or bust. LRE, I agree, but I'll lose money as I got in too soon and wont risk any more on this. I would like to add one to my TFSA - 5 bagger possibility. I don't see this lasting much further...we'll see a short term pop in oil prices very shortly. Still may take a while to get all sorted out, but the upside is getting stronger each day.


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Chris L said:


> Which oil would you consider 5 baggers?


Likely those that trade at 5 to 10% of their 2 or 3 year high prices. 

Again, I don't have anything specific because I don't really spend any time reading about specific companies and doing a bunch of calculations. Everyone else does a fine job at that and it results is a set of companies that meets the above admittedly arbitrary idea. I know they are high debt and at risk of bankruptcy because of the price they trade at, I don't need to replicate the readings and calculations of hundreds of thousands of others to know this. I don't particularly care whether any particular company has a marginal advantage one way or another, it is all shaked and baked into the current market situation. The important thing is the elephant standing in the room, not the mice scurrying about.

This is a play on the incredible utility of oil that I do not believe will disappear in my lifetime, photo ops in Paris notwithstanding. It is a play on the mass psychology of fear and human nature. It is a play on the idea of reversion to the mean. It is a play on buy low, sell high. 

Every once in a while the stock market presents you with a lottery situation, but unlike an actual lottery, the expected value is well over 1. I like to play in this sphere when it shows up. So I have purchased 4 or 5 tickets and might purchase a few more. We will see how it turns out.

hboy43


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

hboy43 said:


> Likely those that trade at 5 to 10% of their 2 or 3 year high prices.
> 
> Again, I don't have anything specific because I don't really spend any time reading about specific companies and doing a bunch of calculations. Everyone else does a fine job at that and it results is a set of companies that meets the above admittedly arbitrary idea. I know they are high debt and at risk of bankruptcy because of the price they trade at, I don't need to replicate the readings and calculations of hundreds of thousands of others to know this. I don't particularly care whether any particular company has a marginal advantage one way or another, it is all shaked and baked into the current market situation. The important thing is the elephant standing in the room, not the mice scurrying about.
> 
> ...


I'm thinking the exact same way about this. I like your way of thinking on the matter.

Similarly, I'm not doing a crazy amount of due diligence. I'm simply doing a quick look at debt maturity schedules so I can be sure the companies have a year or two to start being profitable again. But no fundamental analysis - why bother? Nobody's profitable at these prices, and the competitive dynamics of a commodity industry aren't hard to figure out.

So yeah, I'm letting prices do the talking. They tell you all you need to know about the debt and everything else.


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## capricorn (Dec 3, 2013)

I am deep in red on RDS-B and COS but considering the possibility of multi-baggers in this sector, bought LRE, ECA, BTE and HSE in my RRSP today. Have no intention to sell at least for 5yrs.


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

tygrus said:


> Only a fraction of oil is used for those things. The majority is for people driving around aimlessly in more vehicle than they need to go to malls to buy stuff they dont need. Electric vehicles will be here within 5 years and then we wont need anywhere near 90 million bbls a day on this planet.


So if I parse the above rhetoric correctly, you are saying that the majority of oil is used in frivolous personal car transport. As all personal transport is presumably not frivolous, the total oil usage for personal transport must logically be a higher number still.

I leave it to the reader to go find the actual numbers for oil usage in the personal transport sector to decide for themselves the truth of the above assertions. After doing that you might well reach the same conclusions I did as to how much I ought to weigh these "facts" and opinions.

hboy43


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