# Day trading



## runner39 (Mar 11, 2010)

Anyone make a living day trading?


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

runner39 said:


> Anyone make a living day trading?


Yes , I trade work for money almost everyday.

Just kidding , I've been trying to though , problem is , you have to bet big to make big money , I'm not rich enough or gutsy enough to go all in on any one or two stocks.

5-10% weekly isn't too hard to do , but then my day trading limit is only $5000 per stock , so even 10% is only $500 , I bought KLH last week and have already made over $1200 , only now I really like the stock and think I will hold it longer term , it is showing some great potential.

I sold my worst performing REIT today to buy some more KLH.

Trading fees can eat a good portion of your winnings , and the odd loser as well brings the average down.

You have to set a limit and get out when you reach that limit , don't feel bad about the gains you might have missed , it's hard to do tho.
For instance , I bought TKO a month or so ago , 1000 @ $4.50 , and sold @$5.50 , thought I was doing great , two weeks later or so it hit almost $7.

I bought CWTR this morning , they crashed yesterday and are on their way back up already , I made money on them the exact same way a few months ago.

It's exciting , and profitable if you have some insight , do some research and stay within your limits.

We should have a day trading thread going , just to see how some of us do , as well as sharing the info with others.

I would be interested to hear from any others that are day trading as well.

Good thread.


----------



## jason26 (Apr 6, 2009)

I don't really day trade, but sometimes like to ride a wave (whats that, swing trading? momentum trading?)..

And my main issue is holding on too long. I may have a 5%-10% gain on something but its looking good so I hold on, only to see it drop again.. Pretty confident it will pick back up, but I should have sold for the 5-10% gain to get some capital for other opportunities.

I don't think I could make a living at it though.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

A discount brokerage insider once told me that on average day traders lose their entire capital within two years. 

I suppose it's possible for some daytraders to make enough money to compensate for their time *and* earn an attractive return on their capital. On average though the odds are very poor.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> A discount brokerage insider once told me that on average day traders lose their entire capital within two years.


It's nice to be above average.


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

A day trader is always out at the end of the day. I think you might be talking about momentum investing.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Swing trading I call it , but with enough diversification , you can still be trading something everyday.

By the way , my KLH just went up 25% this morning , minutes after buying more , made me another $3000 this morning alone.

Check it out it may be a real winner.


----------



## runner39 (Mar 11, 2010)

kcowan said:


> A day trader is always out at the end of the day. I think you might be talking about momentum investing.


Would you refer to momentum investing as riding the wave sort of speak, like today has been a good day in the markets and I did some buying/selling which in 2 hours made me $500. I definitely could have made more but someone once told me, "never be afraid to make a profit".

Basically just hobby trading as opposed to day trader I assume.


----------



## runner39 (Mar 11, 2010)

What does the daily volume of a stock tell you?

I assume the more volume the more activity but is that a positive or negative, does more daily volume mean the price will increase or decrease?


----------



## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> A discount brokerage insider once told me that on average day traders lose their entire capital within two years.
> 
> I suppose it's possible for some daytraders to make enough money to compensate for their time *and* earn an attractive return on their capital. On average though the odds are very poor.


I wonder what the average amount of capital is for a person to start day trading.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

CC i think it depends which part of the brokerage operation the insider is attached to. The general representatives at any discount broker will see large numbers of fast traders, because such traders almost by definition must migrate, and do migrate, to fast, cheap online brokers. Witnessing how some clients gamble and lose is one of the negative aspects of working for a discount broker.

however, the desks at the same online brokerages that serve bigger & more serious clients usually witness remarkably stability. These clients are certainly not losing their entire capital. Not in 2 years, not in 10 years, not even in a lifetime.


----------



## jamiechese (Jul 13, 2010)

Honestly I think people could be sucessful in day trading if they built up a safety net. I am not sure how day traders prevent themselves from losing too much money. Although I guess for most people its go big or go home. I would have to say though most day traders are likely to have some sort of extra cash set somewhere incase they REALLY screw up.

Not sure though as I am not a day trader .


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

furgy said:


> It's nice to be above average.


So were they, right up until the day they lost the last of their money.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> A discount brokerage insider once told me that on average day traders lose their entire capital within two years.





kcowan said:


> A day trader is always out at the end of the day





OptsyEagle said:


> So were they, right up until the day they lost the last of their money.


These are the kind of statements made by people who don't believe it can be done and get upset when others do it.

Kind of like "double dip recession" , it only exists in the mind of those who ran with the pack and were too scared to back get in or re-allocate at the bottom , now they're hoping for the big downturn because they've missed the boat.

ANYTHING can be done , if done properly , it all depends on your appetite for risk and your insight as to market sentiment , some are very good at it.

I've done VERY well this past six months , I set aside $10,000 for high risk day/swing trading , if I lose it , it's gone , the rest stays in my log term portfolio.
Problem is , in the last 6 months , that $10,000 has turned into $25,000 , but anything over the 10 grand gets re-invested in long term well paying REITs.

I put a lot of time in at my computer screening and researching stocks in order to find ones I think will go , but others who can't do it like to call it luck , I disagree.

I'm not recommending anyone do it , just saying it's working well for me and it CAN be done.

I get the rest of the winter off now and plan on getting into it more seriously , will let you know how it goes.


----------



## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

To make money "day trading"...you either have to be extremely brilliant, or extremely lucky.

Its best to decide for yourself which one describes you.

Every study shows that day traders lose in the end.

The brokerages, and especially full service brokers, absolutely love day traders!

If you made money day trading in the last 6 months,,,you were very lucky, or you were simply riding the wave up....make no mistake.

I would respectfully suggest that you take those profits and buy some blue chip div stocks and the like.....

Of course its your money...to each , his own.
You didnt need anyones help earning it,,,so how you invest is strictly up to you...... 

I wish everyone good luck, so I'll wish you good luck too.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

warp said:


> I would respectfully suggest that you take those profits and buy some blue chip div stocks and the like.....


Warp , obviously you do not assimilate what you read very well:

I said:
"anything over the 10 grand gets re-invested in long term well paying REITs."

Perhaps the fact that you miss simple things like that are one of the reasons you are not able to make money on short term trades.

No need to get excited people , just saying it can be done.

If you can't do , don't put down others who do.

"To make money "day trading"...you either have to be extremely brilliant"
Thank you Warp.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Every study shows that day traders lose in the end.

Please post links to these studies.

thanks.


----------



## jamiechese (Jul 13, 2010)

Yea I am actually sorta interested to see what the average day trader loses...


----------



## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

I agree with Furgy that it can be done and it is done all the time but no one should think that it's easy and not everyone has the mindset/discipline/work ethic/intelligence to do it.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

furgy said:


> These are the kind of statements made by people who don't believe it can be done and get upset when others do it.
> 
> ANYTHING can be done , if done properly , it all depends on your appetite for risk and your insight as to market sentiment , some are very good at it.
> 
> ...


I have no doubt at all that *some* are good at it. I didn't say that every day trader loses his shirt. Just that the vast majority do.

The only major study of daytraders that I know of is this one:

Do Individual Day Traders Make Money? Evidence from Taiwan



> When an investor buys and sells the same stock on the same day, he has made a day trade. We analyze the performance of day traders in Taiwan. Day trading by individual investors is prevalent in Taiwan – accounting for over 20 percent of total volume from 1995 through 1999. Individual investors account for over 97 percent of all day trading activity. Day trading is extremely concentrated. About one percent of individual investors account for half of day trading and one fourth of total trading by individual investors. Heavy day traders earn gross profits, but their profits are not sufficient to cover transaction costs. Moreover, in the typical six month period, more than eight out of ten day traders lose money. Despite these bleak findings, there is strong evidence of persistent ability for a relatively small group of day traders. Traders with strong past performance continue to earn strong returns. The stocks they buy outperform those they sell by 62 basis points per day. This spread is sufficiently large to cover transaction costs.


----------



## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

Furgy, congrats on the good return but I bet most of that is from swing trading. Day traders don't generally hold positions overnight. If it is all from daytrading, that's pretty impressive. However, your low capital allocated to daytrading, even now, tells me you may lack the money management side of it. There's no such thing as go big or go home in professional daytrading.


----------



## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

It goes back to the problem that stock trading has no barriers to entry. Any begginer with some money can start trading.

In addition, citizens in a lot of other countries are more motivated to put their money into the stock market because they pay no capital gains tax. 

I wonder how many more day traders we would have in Canada if our income taxes stayed the same as today but trading profits were tax free.


----------



## jamiechese (Jul 13, 2010)

davext said:


> It goes back to the problem that stock trading has no barriers to entry. Any beginner with some money can start trading.
> 
> In addition, citizens in a lot of other countries are more motivated to put their money into the stock market because they pay no capital gains tax.
> 
> I wonder how many more day traders we would have in Canada if our income taxes stayed the same as today but trading profits were tax free.


I guarantee you we wont ever see that day...probably more likely to have the world in a nuclear fallout scenario. It really does suck to get taxed, but I would say Canadians, no matter your financial situation are pretty lucky compared to many others around the world.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> Furgy, congrats on the good return but I bet most of that is from swing trading. Day traders don't generally hold positions overnight. If it is all from daytrading, that's pretty impressive. However, your low capital allocated to daytrading, even now, tells me you may lack the money management side of it. There's no such thing as go big or go home in professional daytrading.


 Again , I already stated , it is mostly from swing trading , I guess you just didn't read my post thoroughly.

If a stock goes up enough , I have no problem selling it that same day tho , like my 25% profit on KLH yesterday as an example.

Just how would low capital allowed to day/swing trading suggest poor money management?

I never go over my limit and re-invest all profits in long term income producing investments , that would suggest good money management to me.


----------



## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

Good luck. I suspect your luck will run out like all the others. Much easier when the market is going up.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Square Root said:


> Good luck. I suspect your luck will run out like all the others. Much easier when the market is going up.


I have a slight doubt your "good luck" wishes are genuine , but thanks anyway.

I don't know why you would "suspect' my "luck" would run out like all the others.
My "luck" has run out several times , not every pick is going to be a winner , but my winnings are far exceeding my losses , and my profits are securely tucked away in income producing investments.

Maybe you could put me in touch with "all the others" , and I can talk to them and see where they went wrong.

You more likely "hope" it is luck and it will run out , then you can feel better about not being able to do it yourself.

It's amazing to me how people can be so down on someone because they appear to be successful where most others aren't.
I'm not here to brag or anything , someone else started this thread and I just honestly replied , I am doing well at day/swing trading.
I put a lot of time and effort into researching stocks so I don't think it's just luck , and all stocks have to be sold at some point to realize the gains , I just sell sooner than long term investors and move on to my next "investment".
And yes it is easier in a bull market , that's only common sense , but just as easy in a market crash like 08 , if you've got the guts to short stocks.

Finding a ten dollar bill on the street , or getting a big inheritance is luck , picking stocks that make you money and knowing when to buy or sell , and having the discipline to stick to a plan , is not luck , it's using common sense and interpreting market direction and sentiment. 

I think the reason many lose at it is because they run with the pack and get in on trendy stocks where the gains have already been made , or they get too greedy and hold on too long only to see their current gains turn to losses as the share price drops unexpectedly.

I've proven that on some biotech stocks , NRI in particular , I sold the day before they got a major FDA approval , and I told others to do the same , 
most stayed in for the BIG gains that were sure to come , the day of approval , the stock started going down and hit rock bottom in a week or so , still hasn't returned , I made a huge pile of money on that one and others lost huge.
I bought at .09 and sold at .54 , to me it was a no-brainer because the FDA had already announced that approval was a sure thing.

But call me "LUCKY" , if it makes you feel better , I don't mind.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Alpha is a zero sum game. For day traders to outperform the market, someone else needs to equally underperform. So, it's not realistic for everyone who day trades to make outsize returns. Not without lots of leverage (very risky)...


----------



## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

andrewf said:


> Alpha is a zero sum game. For day traders to outperform the market, someone else needs to equally underperform. So, it's not realistic for everyone who day trades to make outsize returns. Not without lots of leverage (very risky)...



You make it sound harder than it is I think. With so much trading going on each day by so many different individuals/institutions/machines, a day trader's gain is the result of a cumulative loss from all other participants.

For example, if I wanted to make $1,000 per day from day trades, it could be 1 participant losing $1,000 or every participant losing a fraction of it to contribute to the $1,000 gain. 

Given that there are so many instruments/vehicles of gaining/losing money, this is not as hard as you make it out to be.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

dinna fret ye. They who consider themselves to be prudent, rational, painstaking investors always seem to go for the jugular of the insouciant risk-takers. The more academic they are or the richer they claim to be, the stronger the insults.

i remember furgy from a year or so ago. He was advocating buying small research pharmas with interesting product in trial and then routinely selling these stocks just prior to the big FDA decision. A number of analysts have preached the same approach. It was an excellent approach, although i've never done it myself, and it may now be so well-known and so widely-practiced that it doesn't work any more.

but furgy was right at the time. And it wasn't an easy strategy to pull off. There's far more work involved in finding the right bio-pharma with innovative new product than there is in choosing an etf.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> It was an excellent approach, although i've never done it myself, and it may now be so well-known and so widely-practiced that it doesn't work any more..


Thanks for that post humble , that's exactly what I'm saying , the old ways don't work anymore , it's been done to death.
It used to be that all bio stocks would continue the uptrend for months after a major approval by the FDA , now , some of us have figured out it doesn't happen anymore , sell the day before approval , you may miss a little upside , but you'll definitely miss all the downside.

It still works , most investors still hang in there for the real big gains , that's what kills them in the end , excessive greed and fear of missing that little extra that may come their way.

You have to think outside the box and run ahead of the pack into uncharted territory.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

While we're on the subject of day/swing trading , I'll give you another example of what I feel is a can't loose situation , another one I made great money on.

Cypress Bioscience , was selling at $4.34 on june 19 , that same day , they get a buyout offer at $4. , investors think it's too low , freak out and start selling.
Within 3 or 4 days the price drops to $2.36 !!....c'mon people , there's an offer on the table for $4 , why would you sell for any less?

I picked it up at $2.17 and sold a month later at $3.75 !! 

Take a look at the chart , it's incredible.

70% in a month , I was going to sell at 10% but it went up too fast and I got stuck with 70%.

I can't see why most other investors don't see these opportunities , I am guessing there are very few out there like me that are constantly sitting at their computers looking for these deals , I can't see any risk at all in that one , nothing but upside.


----------



## jason26 (Apr 6, 2009)

furgy said:


> I can't see why most other investors don't see these opportunities , I am guessing there are very few out there like me that are constantly sitting at their computers looking for these deals , I can't see any risk at all in that one , nothing but upside.


I find the learning curve is rather steep in finding what news resources to track, and also screening to find potential stocks to track further. I may be good with my personal rules of when to buy and sell, but its finding what to buy and sell.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

jason26 said:


> I find the learning curve is rather steep in finding what news resources to track, and also screening to find potential stocks to track further. I may be good with my personal rules of when to buy and sell, but its finding what to buy and sell.


Yep , you gotta be out there looking all the time , one of the things I do everyday , is do a google search for:"stocks with a new 52 week low".
(but enough , now I'm giving my secrets out)

About 999 out of 1000 are at a new low for good reason , and you shouldn't touch them.

But there's that 1 in a 1000 like I just mentioned , down for no reason , just fear and investors herd mentality , those are the ones that pay.

As in that case , there's very little if any risk.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Alpha is like the laws of themodynamics:

In aggregate,
- You can't win
- You can only lose
- You can't quit


----------



## atrp2biz (Sep 22, 2010)

LOL. Reminds me of this episode.











andrewf said:


> Alpha is like the laws of themodynamics:
> 
> In aggregate,
> - You can't win
> ...


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

andrewf said:


> Alpha is like the laws of themodynamics:
> 
> In aggregate,
> - You can't win
> ...


The fact that I don't even understand that post is probably one of the reasons I'm making money on short term trading.
But Tell yourself what you want to hear.
I'll keep making money.

George Soros and Warren Buffet were just lucky too , their luck just hasn't run out yet either .


----------



## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

More secrets please Furgy. Or if there is a book that you'd recommend, I'd appreciate it.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm not saying some people aren't above average. I'm saying it's impossible for everyone to be above average. And the evidence bears this out. Apparently the average mutual fund investor lagged the index by more than 6% CAGR through the dot com bubble and bust. On average, people are really bad at trading. And for every dollar in alpha Buffet or you gains, someone else out there is losing more than one dollar (it's not just zero sum, but there is trading friction, etc.).

I'm not a strict buy-and-hold guy. I am just aware that on average, people necessarily underperform the index.


----------



## Mockingbird (Apr 29, 2009)

Just quick comments.

> *Day trading?* Just a broad term used for frequent buying and selling of various financial instruments for the purpose of making profit. 
> *Positions?* Most daytraders are flat by the day end. Some do hold overnights and do initiate multi-day swings. All risk based.
> *Leverage?* Anywhere between 2x-100x+. Huge leverage is a non-issue for the successful intra-daytraders.
> *Capital requirement?* Depends how fast you learn to trade and how deep your pocket is. Some successfully ones trade with 5K risk capital. Important part is knowing when to quit.
> *Brokers?* Most professional daytraders don't use banks or even Canadian discount brokers. Most trade under the independent proprietary trading firms either here in Canada or Prop LLP in US.
> *Trading Commission?* It matters. Small fraction of what you get from the cheapest of Canadian discount brokers. However, you may need to give up some of your profit. Most are negotiable and they depend on your skills.
> *Failure rate?* Very high if starting on your own. It has a steep learning curve and most will fail. Lucky ones with mentors will have much better chance of survival. Successful ones do make consistent profit day and day out.
> *Risky?* Trading itself is risky. Risk management is the crucial part of daytrading. Some get it, but many don't. 

Just my 2c.
MB


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

davext said:


> More secrets please Furgy. Or if there is a book that you'd recommend, I'd appreciate it.


There's no real secret , the method I described is called bottom fishing by some , and it can pay out , you just have to look around , and when you find one you like , you usually have to be quick as they can recover very fast.
http://moneyterms.co.uk/bottom-fishing/

I don't use stop losses , they can be triggered too easily if it hasn't hit bottom yet and you lose your trading fees , it can add up.
If they keep going down , I stay the course , if the company has decent fundamentals , it will come back and you have time on your side , but usually they don't take long to rebound.

Here' another play , CWTR , the share price dropped from $5.46 to $3.41 in two days on expected losses , the company does'nt even report till Dec , the losses are just expected , not a sure thing.

Companies have been known to do this to manipulate share price so they can buy back shares at a lower price , then when they report , the losses don't happen and share price magically rebounds.

Is that whats happening now? I'm not 100% sure , but I did buy some at $3.41 two days ago and it's up to $3.48 today , it was way higher this morning intraday , indicating to me that there is others who think it is on the way up again.
I'll let you know how it works out.
CWTR is very volatile and I have done this with them twice before , didn't get rich , but made decent money.

I'm not recommending anything to anyone , but I don't mind sharing my finds with you , then you can make your own decision.

davext , I'll PM you with one of my better finds if you're really interested.


----------



## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

Obviously few make money - time and again - by day trading when they are novices. We have ALL lost money doing so. However many have also made money by intentionally day trading. I find that my most successful plays have been watching and knowing a stock's _trading behaviour_. By this I mean noticing what is out of the ordinary and acting on it. If you are watching a stock and its' news releases and all of that diligently, and if a price drops for no apparent reason - more often than not it is a buying opportunity. Looking back on the behaviour I find that it repeats itself and confirms what I 'should have done'.

If you act and increase your position by 20%, based on the lower stock price, that may be a good move. If the price rebounds in a couple of days and exceeds its average price, and you sell 15% of your position, that is a good move. 

Now if your position is small volumes/small dollar value, that gain is minimal. What makes the 'day trading' work is when someone is confident in the stock/company (note - two different things) and can make a play that makes the transactions worth while. If you make 16% in two days and that works out to $380 after fees, while still good, it is not worth giving up your day job. However if you have the capital to have a 16% gain of $3,800 or $6,000 than that is worth something.

FOR ME, I see the main difference of day trading versus my style of trading is that day traders are watching everthing, constantly and can react in time. They are not bothered with a real job and other responsibilities. I would expect that for every trade they are watching and waiting for many, many hours or days before making the trade. And they are watching many companies/stocks at once. 

Like gambling everyone knows someone who had a big payout, and repeats the story about how easy it was. Another interesting story we (investors/traders) all like to retell is how you missed out on something. "I sold at $5.05 and the next day it went to $7 - I should not have sold!" or "I missed selling at $7 because I was away from my computer" or whatever. As a day trader you shold not miss those and it would be part of your routine. Days could go by without trading at all. That is what I would expect. However if I were trading with really high volume and could take a % or two in a day, that would be worthwhile and, if I knew the stock's behaviour, than not too risky methinks.

I think day trading is like real estate. There are thousands of realtors but only a small % actually sell the majority of homes sold.


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Day trading, swing trading and momentum trading are all good things to do and a few people do them well. It is the most active of the active traders. People can make money at it just like any other form of investing.

It is one of the few areas where you can make money in a flat or down market.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

furgy said:


> 1. I don't use stop losses , they can be triggered too easily if it hasn't hit bottom yet and you lose your trading fees , it can add up.
> 
> 2. Here' another play , CWTR , the share price dropped from $5.46 to $3.41 in two days on expected losses , the company does'nt even report till Dec , the losses are just expected , not a sure thing.


1. So I am not alone & exactly for the same reasons you mentioned. 
2. Quite a decline from the 52 week high of $8.75, so a potential good buy at $3+.

I have also been following Stellar Biotechnologies (KLH) & Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX).


----------



## Johnny Profit (Nov 12, 2010)

Good Evening,

I just happened to come across this site and decided to take the big step and join up with you fellow money lovers.

Furgy congrats on your day trading profits. I for one know profits can be made at this. 

Day trading is like running your own small business, you MUST put in long hours (12-14 hours a day myself), have capital you can afford to lose, expect little to no profits for the first bit and surround yourself with people who can assist you. If you do not put a full time effort into it, you can expect to find yourself in that 90% failure rate very quickly. So my tip to any new day trader out there is to ask yourself "can I really put this much time into this right now?" If no, then please don't try it. If you answer yes, your next step is to design a day trader business plan for yourself. 


Anyways Furgy I'm wondering what type of charting software you use? I'm currently using IQ charts, but I am looking for other alternatives at the moment.


----------



## Kirkx (Dec 21, 2009)

Johnny Profit said:


> I'm wondering what type of charting software you use? I'm currently using IQ charts, but I am looking for other alternatives at the moment.


Have a look at SierraChart or NinjaTrader. Ideally, the charting package should work with different data feeds, should be easily adaptable to multi-monitor setups and should have API to connect to trading platforms from high tech brokers (in Canada there are very few of them, namely IB, MF Global and OptionsXpress) to allow placing orders straight from the chart. The feed is important too, some of them have lag. The best one is probably DTN IQfeed (true tick charts and no lag), although for Canadian stocks a cheaper feed like MyTrack will do just fine (it also has RT quote scanner with user adjustable parameters, although the scanner doesn't support TSXV). eSignal is very good but overpriced.

Also, TDW is working on making ThinkOrSwim charting available with Canadian stocks. JitneyTrade used to offer Tradient trading platform, which has better charting, rt quote scanner, and no outages like AxisPro used as a premium platform by TDW, Scotia iTrade, Questrade, Virtual Brokers and some others.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. I have also been following Stellar Biotechnologies (KLH) & Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX).


Tgal , did you buy any KLH? , I sold on Friday and nearly doubled my money in four weeks , a nice one.
I kept 5000 shares because I think there is a lot more in this one and I'll keep it longer term , just to be sure.
Also sold PDN at just under $5 for a quick profit.
Sold my CWTR as it was just taking too long to recover and I found another play , I made a few bucks on CWTR and bought MELA this morning , it is up almost 20% today already.
They have an FDA decision coming this week , if it comes thru , sp could double , I will probably sell the day before tho , just to be sure.




Johnny Profit said:


> Good Evening,Furgy congrats on your day trading profits. I for one know profits can be made at this.
> Anyways Furgy I'm wondering what type of charting software you use? I'm currently using IQ charts, but I am looking for other alternatives at the moment.


Johnny , no particular software , just DD and try to interpret market sentiment and direction.
I do run my picks thru barchart.com for TA , which I'm not really into , but like to have it just the same.
And it helps to have the "Midas Touch".


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

furgy said:


> Tgal , did you buy any KLH? , I sold on Friday and nearly doubled my money in four weeks , a nice one.
> 
> I kept 5000 shares because I think there is a lot more in this one and I'll keep it longer term , just to be sure.
> 
> bought MELA this morning, it is up almost 20% today already.


*@Furgy:* congrats. on your "Midas Touch." 

Yes, I bought it after following it for a few months & made a quick 30% profit [kept 1000 shares for long term]; not as good as you, but good enough for a relatively newbie in the trading world! I have had similar success trading KERX. 

MELA has been on my watch-list and have added 2 more to that sector list: HGSI and BNVI.

Happy trading!


----------



## Kirkx (Dec 21, 2009)

Midas Touch, browser based charts from Barchart.com and DD will do in a raging bull market like we have in some sectors since August (uranium, gold, silver, etc). When one day the sentiment reverses, having a good charting software will be even more important.

I forgot to mention AmiBroker. I use it not so much as a day trading tool but to keep the full data base of Canadian stocks (4000 or so symbols) on the hard drive, you can add all 8000+ US symbols too. AmiBroker is excellent for running eod or delayed rt scans on thousands of symbols. It can also be run in real time with some data feeds (DTN IQfeed, eSignal).


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Kirkx said:


> Midas Touch, browser based charts from Barchart.com and DD will do in a raging bull market like we have in some sectors since August (uranium, gold, silver, etc). When one day the sentiment reverses, having a good charting software will be even more important.


Sorry Kirky , but I disagree , I feel over analysing things can lead to lost opportunities.
Case in point: Buying TCK at $4. in 2009 , we were in a raging bear market , nowhere near a bull market , charting software at that time had no meaning at all.
That's just one of many examples.
One day when the trend reverses , guaging short term market sentiment and direction will be even more important.
The stock market has been around for a long time , people were making money long before charting software was even invented.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

MELA.
yesterday.
morning.
oh dear.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

50% drop, however, not unusual at all for yo-yo type stocks; biotech investing is risky for sure, but the good ones bounce back pretty quickly.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

unusual news.
oops.
will.
not.
bounce.
back.
any.
time.
soon.

a smart.
mistake.
or a wise.
mistake.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Re: MELA, unusual for sure, luckily it was only on my watch-list. 

Lots of stocks took a deep dive today, so maybe a good opportunity to accumulate.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

not yet.
eurocrisis worse.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> unusual news.
> oops.
> will.
> not.
> ...


No mistake at all , just taking chances , up 30 grand in the last few months on short term trades , like a loss of $4000 is going to bother me.?

I'm up over ten grand on KLH alone in one month , that was just as big a risk.

That's what buying and selling on news and FDA decisions is all about.

Not every buy is going to be a winner , you have to take chances constantly.

Like I say , never play with scared money.

Mela was down today because of the advisory panel consensus , you have to remember tho , the advisory panel is just that , an advisory panel.

While the FDA "often" follows the advice of it's panelists , the actual decision is still made by the FDA.

If the equipment meets the criteria set out by the FDA in the original application , the device could still be approved or just postponed pending further trials , we will know in a couple of days.

The same thing happened with NRI a couple of years ago , I held on for the postponement period and made very good money in the end.

Don't try this at home boys and girls.

I'll hold.


----------



## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

furgy said:


> No mistake at all , just taking chances , up 30 grand in the last few months on short term trades , like a loss of $4000 is going to bother me.?


that is very impressive indeed. congratulations
I'd like to know though how much time do you spend on the research on average in a week?
are you a full time trader by occupation or do you have a full time day job?
if you do, how do you manage to do so much trading and all the research behind it?


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

SixesAndSevens said:


> > that is very impressive indeed. congratulations
> > I'd like to know though how much time do you spend on the research on average in a week?
> > are you a full time trader by occupation or do you have a full time day job
> 
> ...


When you make five or ten grand off of some trades , there's really not that much trading to do , as for buying and selling on FDA approvals , There's just not a lot of research needed , because there's no amount of research that can really help , you just have to make your best assessment and take a chance , no one knows what the FDA will do ultimately.

MELA is a perfect example of that , there's no way of knowing the outcome , I may lose 4 or 5 grand on this one , we'll know Thursday , but my trading account is still up and all my profits from previous winners are tucked away in REITs.

It's definitely not for everyone.

Or , I could just be on a roll.

It happens , but I'll stick with it until the trend reverses and my designated trading capital is used up.


----------



## Kirkx (Dec 21, 2009)

furgy said:


> Sorry Kirky, but I disagree, I feel over analysing things can lead to lost opportunities


That's true, you need to focus on those aspects of technical analysis that work consistently.



furgy said:


> Case in point: Buying TCK at $4. in 2009 , we were in a raging bear market , nowhere near a bull market , charting software at that time had no meaning at all


Here is TCK.B and my chart based on ATR (Average True Range). 2009 was a classic "double bottom" (otherwise we would have had a "V-bottom", which is quite rare). The reversal in Dec 2008 failed, then the market hit new lows in March 2009 (second bottom) and the bull run started afterwards. My ATR system would get you in on March 11 at 4.60 (the first green candle in March):

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/963/11162010150430.png

The classic signal of MA crossover (20 and 50 EMA) would get you in on March 27 at 7.73, or you could wait for the Last Price crossing 200 day SMA on May-06 at 16.35:

http://img574.imageshack.us/img574/237/11162010160306.png

The problem with TCK.B at that time was the talk about possible bankruptcy, so although the charts looked promising, personally I didn't touch it.



furgy said:


> One day when the trend reverses , guaging short term market sentiment and direction will be even more important


Example today, significant move down in the US. $INDU gapped down through 20 day EMA, there was not enough conviction to fade that gap in the first hour, and as a result, later the closest target in the form of 50 day EMA and 11,000 was hit around noon time.



furgy said:


> The stock market has been around for a long time, people were making money long before charting software was even invented)


Candlestick charts were invented by rice traders in Japan a few hundred years ago and Wall Street traders used charts, drawn by hand, in 1930s. So technical analysis has been around for a long time, it's just the method of presentation that has changed, it's now computerized.

Of course if someone can make consistent profits w/o any software that's great, but a software might prove helpful for others.


----------



## Kirkx (Dec 21, 2009)

SixesAndSevens said:


> are you a full time trader by occupation or do you have a full time day job?


Full time job is a no no if you are serious about trading. "Furgy" has a great setup, he has his own business and has lots of flexibility during trading hours.

When I was still working full time I tried to work nights and trade at day time, but it wasn't such a great idea. You come home in the morning and you want to go to sleep and not to sit for six hours in front of the computer. I know some doctors who are hooked to their laptops checking the markets at work whenever they have a break, it must be very frustrating.

From my experience, you either trade full time, or you work full time. Any attempt to do both will compromise your profits and might also lead to health problems down the road.


----------



## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

furgy said:


> About four hours a day on my computer , self-employed and work when I need to , my crew are highly skilled and do very well with or without me being there.


i take it then you are some sort of a construction supervisor?
it is rare to have a job that is so less demanding that allows you time to do this.

may i ask how long it took for you to acquire this level of skill in trading?
i'm certain this cannot be acquired in a couple of years by a relatively new investor just getting into stock picking.
was the journey a tough learning process?
did you make mistakes and lose money?
did you ever think of quitting when you lost money?

what % of your portfolio do you allocate to this type of day trading activity?
sorry for a lot of questions. hopefully not annoying you.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

> The problem with TCK.B at that time was the talk about possible bankruptcy, so although the charts looked promising, personally I didn't touch it.


Kwirk . that's exactly the problem with most people , if you were a visionary , you would have seen that tek has second to none management , and a dual class share structure that make takeovers next to impossible.

Bankruptcy was never in the cards for teck.

Most people miss these important little details.



> I take it then you are some sort of a construction supervisor?
> it is rare to have a job that is so less demanding that allows you time to do this.


I own and operate my own business , a niche market that I have nurtured over 25 years to be very lucrative.


----------



## Kirkx (Dec 21, 2009)

furgy said:


> ... you would have seen that Teck Resources has second to none management, and a dual class share structure that make takeovers next to impossible. Bankruptcy was never in the cards for teck. Most people miss these important little details.


You have more experience with fundamental analysis than me. I'm a chart and software geek. Any rumours about possible bankruptcy published in a serious financial publication/news channel is a red flag for me.

The problem with fundamental analysis is that it's hard to tell how much of this stuff is just a noise generated by investment industry trying to push the stock on unsuspecting public and get their fees and bonuses. All those forward earnings per share projections, and what's already priced in and what's not, seems like voodoo to me. Charts are much easier to understand, all the fundamentals are already reflected in the chart.

I mostly trade futures (ES, NQ, CL, GC), sometimes forex (EURUSD, USDCAD, GBPUSD), often in US overnight hours (ref. the time stamp of this post), and also Canadian small caps as a hobby, when they trend nicely, like they have since the summer.

Anyone serious about day trading should look at Elite Trader forums, this is where day traders from all over the world converge:

http://www.elitetrader.com/

The Canadian website below used to be followed mostly by conservative buy-and-hold crowd and an occasional swing trader, but lately you can also find some posts from people trading Horizons BetaPro ETFs on 5 and 15 minute charts and other day traders. It also has lots of useful info about seasonal trends:

http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/category/reports/

An example of how the stock scanner mentioned in one of my previous posts works is here, the filter is set to find spikes in volume and number of trades on TSX stocks in $0.30 - $15 range (I get eod data with number of trades from Canada Stockwatch):

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/4678/11172010033828.png

http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/5512/11172010034054.png

On a day like Tuesday, when $INDU lost 180 points, there won't be too many entries. Two weeks ago the list would have about 80 uranium, gold and silver stocks.

Good luck, everyone.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> Re: MELA, unusual for sure, luckily it was only on my watch-list.
> 
> Lots of stocks took a deep dive today, so maybe a good opportunity to accumulate.


Good move Tgal , I did jump in MELA for 1000 shares , I was up 20% in a few hours , if I had stuck to my original (sell at 10%) plan , I would have made a nice profit for a days hold.

I got a little too greedy , gotta have more discipline.

I will assess the full damage tomorrow when the actual decision is made , probably another 6 months of testing is my guess , then another shot at approval.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

_MELA Sciences, Inc. (MELA) [Chart - Analysis - News] was upgraded from Sell Short to Hold on Wednesday, November 17th---a positive sign for the stock that investors typically welcome. FYI, WBB Securities uses the following rating scale when analyzing stocks: Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell, Sell Short.

MELA Sciences, Inc. has an average analyst recommendation score of 1.7 and competes for investment dollars with Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX) [Chart - Analysis - News] and Mesa Laboratories Inc. (MLAB) [Chart - Analysis - News]---two other stocks in the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry that have average analyst recommendation scores of 2.9 and 3, respectively.

Analyst recommendations are averaged and scored using the following rating scale: 

- 1.0 = Strong Buy 
- 2.0 = Buy 
- 3.0 = Hold
- 4.0 = Sell
- 5.0 =Strong Sell_

So as I see it , with an average score of 1.7 , MELA is now rated at somewhere between a "strong buy" and a "buy".

After reading the review panels assessment of the Melafind device , the only major downside they have , is that the device "could" be harmful "if" used by people not properly trained in it's use , That , and lack of database.

They never said the device didn't do what it was designed to do , and may still meet the criteria set out in the original FDA application.

It's a long shot , but approval is still on the table , and only the final decision tomorrow will tell.

Buy more at these levels
Decisions , decisions.


----------



## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

I've been watching the options chain on this thing - it hit my screens a week ago. Crazy implied vol on the options, normally I skip these bio-tech type plays.

Ideally you would have collared it - sold calls above your stock position and bought puts underneath. If you had you would still have a profit (or close - the options premiums were crazy for the last week on this) or you could have ditched the stock and made good money on the puts. The implied vol on the Nov's is insane since it's basically a binary result.

For crazy volatile stuff like this you can construct much safer options trades with defined risk instead of just going all-in by buying the stock.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

re the MELA mambo.

the classic approach with emerging pharmaceuticals is to sight the companies with the promising drugs in trial phase early on, by reading the scientific journals. This is why the classic professional market players are nearly always bioscience post-docs. For example, one strong toronto-based boutique investment house employs a foreign-trained MD as its chief pharma analyst.

a key component of the approach is to buy obscure promising pharmas long before the crowd does, at cheap prices. Nearly always, as news gets out and hype commences, the share price will rise.

the pros working this approach know & understand the FDA & its practices extremely well. They observe, and never forget, all the critical dates in a new drug's torturesome path towards final FDA approval or rejection.

the pros know that the majority of new drugs from obscure emerging pharmaceuticals are going to fail FDA approval. Statistically speaking, it's the big multinational pharmas that have a much better batting history of FDA approval.

therefore, a critical aspect of the pro approach is to sell all emerging pharmas prior to the issuance of FDA advisories & decisions. While it is true that an emerging pharma will occasionally squeak through to success - dendreon for example - it is also true that the vast majority will fail. Using the above strategy, and selling relentlessly before FDA announcements, the pro players in this strategy therefore have a built-in probability of success.

what happened in MELA is that the FDA announced on 2 november/10 that on thursday 18 november/10 its general surgical devices panel of its medical advisory committee would announce views on the MELA instrument.

what we saw in this thread is that babble & buying did not appear until 15 november. This was far too late. As soon as the 2 november announcement was posted on the FDA website, the pro players - the bioscience post-docs & all the hedge funds & institutions that they advise - began to sell. In fact they appear to have been selling throughout 2010.

i've never used the emerging pharma strategy myself because i'm not any kind of bioscience phd or md. These emerging pharmaceuticals are to be discovered in the academic scientific & medical journals - while they are still in their penny stock phase - and i for one cannot follow these publications. Furthermore the mechanics of FDA meetings, minutes & approval announcements must be marked & watched like a hawk. A knowledge of who the individual FDA committee members may be & how each expert is likely to think is also important.

by the time noise & hype for an experimental new drug reaches the charts, the main media news, the message boards and the significant option & volume indicators, everything is too late.

they say that the expert pro players in emerging pharmas not only sell routinely before every FDA approval date, but in fact they also immediately put on short positions. Whew ! it's all too rich for me, but fun to read about.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> re the MELA mambo.they say that the expert pro players in emerging pharmas not only sell routinely before every FDA approval date,


Totally agree , if you'll remember a previous post , that was my strategy , minus the shorts.

My plan was to get out the day before , but it dropped so fast on the review panels criticism , I now have no choice but to wait for the outcome , as I said before , I don't use stop losses , and that can work either way for you.

The actual decision is coming today , so we'll see what happens soon.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

LOOKING GOOD!

As I said earlier , if the device meets the criteria set out in the original application (which it does) , the FDA has a legal obligation to give it's approval.

I'll see if I can get some cheap shares early tomorrow before the short squeeze pushes the price thru the roof.










_MELA Sciences, Inc. announced that the General and Plastic Surgery Devices Panel appointed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) voted by majority that, for its proposed indications, MelaFind is safe and effective and that its benefits outweigh the risks. The FDA will take into account, among other things, the panel's recommendation in making its final approval decision. The FDA has not provided a date as to when it will make a decision regarding the MelaFind PMA application._


----------



## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

Furgy, how do you pick up the stock before it goes through the roof tomorrow? Do you just put in a buy order before the market opens at a price close to the last asking price?


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

davext said:


> Furgy, how do you pick up the stock before it goes through the roof tomorrow? Do you just put in a buy order before the market opens at a price close to the last asking price?


Dave , you just have to put in your order the night before and hope fore the best.

BTW , it closed at $2.50 wednesday , was halted thursday , and is now trading pre-market in excess of $5 , that's about the best you'll do now , still a good buy in my opinion.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Apparently , there are 8 million shorts that need to be covered today , The pre-market was as high as $8.24 this morning.

That's from another poster on another board , I don't have level 2 quotes so I have to rely on second hand info from those who do.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

*Oh Ye of little faith!*



humble_pie said:


> unusual news.
> oops.
> will.
> not.
> ...


You just KNEW I'd dredge up this post didn't you Humble?

Up 117% as I am posting this , seems pretty soon to me.

As my financial advisor , you are fired!

As for mistakes , none , just calculated risks.

MELA Sciences, Inc. (MELA, Free Analysis), a medical device company focused on non-invasive point-of-care instruments to assist in the early diagnosis of melanoma, could be worth as much as $11 per share after an FDA panel narrowly voted in favor of the firm’s Melafind, according to Leerink. The analyst noted that the decision was a surprise to many and raised its price target substantially.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

And didn't I say on Nov.16th that the good ones bounce back pretty quickly?!

Glad for you Furgy; you're hired!


----------



## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

Not sure where to get in on this one. $4.91 for MELA now, you might be right about all the shorts Furgy.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Well , for what it's worth Dave , here's my take on the current situation.

The device will be approved , just waiting for the announcement , I've been in on biotechs just like this before , the FDA has a contractual agreement with the applicant , if it meets certain specs , it gets passed , they basically just passed it by majority vote.

Also bear in mind that their 52 week high was over $12.

The shares will be volatile for today and maybe even a few more days , remember , a lot of people bought at the $2.50 - $3.00 level , like I was thinking of doing two days ago , so you should expect profit taking initially.

Then it should start creeping up in anticipation of the actual approval and also of some news , such as a big pharma player stepping in to fund commercial development of the device , or even possibly a takeover by one of the bigger players.

I personally bought more @ around $5 , and some analysts are predicting $11 or better by the first q/2011 , not that I put much faith in analysts projections.

Don't forget the chance you got at KLH @$.45 and missed , now it seems too late to get in , it's all about risk , you can wait for a new bottom and maybe get lucky , or get in on the way up , or it could leave you standing in the dust.

That's just my take on these plays , but I have an extremely high risk tolerance (no mortgage , debt , children or liabilities of any kind) , you have to do what's right for you , if these plays are too risky , don't do it.


----------



## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

Thanks Furgy. I appreciate your thorough take on this. Just bringing the stock up in this forum makes my day more interesting. I might pick up a couple hundred shares to test the waters here.


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

furgy -- are you buying or watching any high yield REITs right now?
I recall that you got out of TR.
Anything new?
I'm planning to increase my REIT allocation beyond XRE and would love your suggestions.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

furgy my condolences you have lost $$$ in mela.

according to you posts you bought 15 november. That day's range was hi 7.00, lo 6.15 approx. Let's say you were in @ 6.50 average.

plus you post that you bought today @ 5.00.

stk is 4.85 this minute so you is deep underwater.



p.s. you classic riposte is to post that you bought other, cheaper shares that you aren't disclosing ...

mon pauvre frère that's what they always say ...


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> furgy my condolences you have lost $$$ in mela.
> 
> according to you posts you bought 15 november. That day's range was hi 7.00, lo 6.15 approx. Let's say you were in @ 6.50 average.
> 
> ...


A wise man once said to me:

"dinna fret ye. They who consider themselves to be prudent, rational, painstaking investors always seem to go for the jugular of the insouciant risk-takers. The more academic they are or the richer they claim to be, the stronger the insults."

That was your post , I'm disapointed in you humble , are you now placing yourself in that camp?


In my first post i said "it" was up 117% as I was posting , not me , and it was.(mela)

I also said I had bought more @ "around" $5 , not $5. , as I hadn't checked my buy alerts yet , I was just assuming.

That's completely right Humble , I bought 1000 @ $6.50 on the 15TH , and another 800 @ $5.30 this morning , perhaps you could point out where I said I was up , I never said that , but I am up $4,266 since my lowest point yesterday and have a company that has an FDA approval.
Now I have the advantage of time on my side and am sure I will be in the black and even very profitable quite soon.

I am currently down $1700 or so , a hell of a lot better than yeterday.

Most analysts are predicting much higher share prices , as am I.

Yesterday I was down over $4000 with a company that could go broke without FDA approval , by staying the course and buying more , I have negated most of my losses and now have a shot at making a quick buck once again.

I was just playing with you in fun this morning , wasn't trying to insult you , so don't get your panties in a wad and try to put words in my mouth or insinuate that I am being less than truthful , please show me the post that made you think I was up in profits.

I just pointed out that your call of not bouncing back anytime soon had no basis at all , don't get upset over it.

I'm assuming that french thing is an insult?I'm also assuming that you don't assimilate what you read very well.
You may want to adopt a policy of re-reading and actually absorbing information before hurling insults , senor.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> furgy -- are you buying or watching any high yield REITs right now?
> I recall that you got out of TR.
> Anything new?
> I'm planning to increase my REIT allocation beyond XRE and would love your suggestions.


Harold , just doubled my holdings in BTB and CRH , CRH has shown a nice upward movement the last few months and pays about 9% , I'm hoping and expecting them to increase distributions if sp gets much higher.

BTB pays a little better , about 11-12% but maybe a little riskier?
They have some great properties with some good long term leases mostly in Quebec.

I also hold SRQ , also somewhere around 9% yield , I am expecting some good upward movement in that one , they have a history of very stable distributions.

I stick with the small-mid cap REITs as they generally pay better.

Those are my only three REITs currently , I sold RMM as well , I was up 53% and just didn't see much more upside to it , so I put the money into BTB which pays a far better dividend.

I got into XRE for a while but liked the distributions of the individual REITs much better.

TR.UN paid almost 17% for a while , but very risky , I sold it and am using that capital for my day trading ventures.
It has gone up 20% or so since I sold it , so someone believes in it and is willing to take the risk , They have a lot of debt though.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

full disclosure for Humble:

There's no date on them , I cut and pasted from my email alerts , you'll just have to take my word for it.
I plan on keeping this thread going as I find it quite interesting and hope others do as well , from now on though , I will give full disclosure to avoid being taken out of context.
I have no problem with posting any of my losses as well as gains for all to see , after all , it's just trading , and I'd like to hear about others picks as well.
*************************************************
You have just received a Trade Alert from CIBC Investor Services Inc.

Details:

Action Bought
Quantity 800
Symbol MELA (MELA SCIENCES INC)
Exchange NMS
Price $5.30

Thank you for using CIBC Investor Services Inc.

You have just received a Trade Alert from CIBC Investor Services Inc.

Details:

Action Bought
Quantity 1,000
Symbol MELA (MELA SCIENCES INC)
Exchange NMS
Price $6.4699

Thank you for using CIBC Investor Services Inc.


----------



## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Woohoo!

I play Wallstreet Survivor and I bought MELA at 3.03 on the 16th right after it crashed and sold it for 4.90 today. There's no better feeling than making a huge profit in pretend money! Oh wait...


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Posted by sherlock , the wonder boy :"By recent grad I meant graduated 3 years ago, I guess it's not so recent now that I think about it,"

Anything else you'd like to conveniently remember? dick boy? ha!

You fukkin retard!! LOL!!!

Cmon boy.LOL!!!


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

furgy of course i believe you.

you are to be congratulated for hanging on with steel nerves through 2 bad days.

as for me i was replying to what i thought was a piece of good-natured teasing from you this morning. I didn't think french was insulting. Haven't we already been there done that in this country ... so sorry you felt that way.

re mela it doesn't have FDA approval yet, though. What it has is a slim majority vote from an outside advisory committee that is not binding upon the FDA. So the final outcome is still clouded imho 

my favourite quote of the day was the guy who said Dermatologists Are Not Doctors.


----------



## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

furgy said:


> Posted by sherlock , the wonder boy :"By recent grad I meant graduated 3 years ago, I guess it's not so recent now that I think about it,"
> 
> Anything else you'd like to conveniently remember? dick boy? ha!
> 
> ...


I think you should get back on your meds...


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> furgy of course i believe you.
> 
> you are to be congratulated for hanging on with steel nerves through 2 bad days.
> 
> ...


OK , just a mis-understanding , but if you've ever read thru an FDA application as signed by both parties , I think you will find it is a binding agreement when a device meets the defined criteria.
I would be very surprised if approval wasn't granted , in fact I'm betting on it , about $10,000 worth.

Sherlock , go back to school , I don't believe you graduated.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

*Furgy:* congrats. again, you sure have the 'midas touch' and as humble said, you don't need to prove yourself. I had MELA on my watch-list even before you posted and came oh so close to buying when it dropped 54%! 

What are your thoughts on HGSI, it has been on my watch-list for a few weeks now.

http://torontostar.morningstar.ca/globalhome/industry/news.asp?articleid=360213


----------



## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

furgy said:


> Sherlock , go back to school , I don't believe you graduated.





furgy said:


> A smart man learns from *others* mistakes.


Yes clearly I'm the one with a lack of education around here.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> *Furgy:* congrats. again, you sure have the 'midas touch' and as humble said, you don't need to prove yourself. I had MELA on my watch-list even before you posted and came oh so close to buying when it dropped 54%!
> 
> What are your thoughts on HGSI, it has been on my watch-list for a few weeks now.
> 
> http://torontostar.morningstar.ca/globalhome/industry/news.asp?articleid=360213


Looks interesting , looks good for approval , first new Lupus drug since 1958 , looks like there is definitely a need , and partnered with GlaxoSmithKline , lots of money for development if approved.

Everyone seems to agree that approval is almost assured , over 2 billion in projected sales , looks very good to me.

I have all my trading capital in use right now , otherwise I would be looking very closely at this one.

I may just sell my remaining shares of KLH and get into HGSI , a person would have to be in pretty soon , as Dec.9 is the approval date if I read correctly.

I will be keeping my eye on it anyway in case things change , thanks for the tip.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

*I frequent some other forums more specific to day trading and enjoy them as well as learn , just thought I would copy and paste some info I find interesting , and kind of suits my philosophy.
*
_I can give you the best rules in the world and the best methods for determining the position of a commodity, and then you can lose money on account of the human element, which is your greatest weakness. You will fail to follow rules. You will act on hope or fear instead of facts. You will delay. You will become impatient. You will act too quickly or you will delay too long in acting, thus beating yourself on account of your human weakness, then blaming it on the market. Remember that it is your mistakes that cause losses and not the action of the market or the manipulators. Therefore, strive to follow rules, or keep out of speculation, for you are doomed to failure. 

If you will only study the weakness of human nature and see what fools these mortals be, you will find it easy to make profits by understanding the weakness of human nature and going against the public and doing opposite of what other people do. In other words, you buy near the bottom on knowledge and sell near the top on knowledge, while other people who just guess do the opposite. Time spent in the study of price, time and past market movements, will give you a rich reward. 


W.D Gann in 
How to Make Profits in Commodities_

*Had I followed my own rules when I originally bought MELA , I would now be out with a quick 10-20% profit and into another play , I have recovered most of my losses and will eventually turn a profit (I hope) , but I'll have to hold a little longer than I wanted to.
Gotta have a plan and stick to the rules.*

*Here's another post:*
_I was trying to explain trading to a buddy of mine last night and it was obvious he was becoming more confused the more I went on. Finally, he said, "if you're supposed to treat trading like a business, what would you tell a bank if you went in for a business loan?".

This question really took be aback as I never really thought about it that way before. But I plodded along anyway.

"Well, you see, the markets are fixed. It's not exactly collusion but it is definitely a game controlled by big money. And the big money can only maximize their profits by tricking retail traders. Let's say a strong uptrend is underway and you're waiting for a pullback so you can go along for the ride."

He stopped me right there and asked me, "Why wait for a pullback? If you have a confirmed trend then simply enter upon confirmation." 

Guess what? I couldn't come up with a concrete answer to his question. Although I explained margins, slippage, commission, etc. to him it still didn't do the trick. Then I went into trading strategies and some indicators. In short, he said I was over-thinking the situation. Since no one can predict when a "run" will end and the pullback begins, just hop on the train and get out of the way.

I think he's right._

*And another:*
_I totally agree. I would make a lot more money if I followed my own rules. I have had the same setup for 13 months now you would think that I would trust it more. When looking back at the charts it trades at 68 percent. But when I trade it with real money I only trade at 45 percent. Money management is the only thing that saves me. I truly believe that trading is easy and that we over complicate it, and let our "intellect" get in the way.

_

*These are just some others thoughts on the subject , most people seem to agree that it can't be done profitably , yet there are many out there making a good living at it.
I guess at the end of the day , money in the bank (or lack of) speaks for itself.*

*Go against the general public sentiment? , I've been considering a small position in HGSI with their FDA approval all but assured on Dec.9 , just wondering if the upside would be worth the risk.
After this announcement: "Human Genome Sciences And GlaxoSmithKline Announce Positive Phase 3 Study Results for BENLYSTA in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus 
Reuters Key Development - Jul 20, 2009" , the share price jumped from $3.32 to $14.64 literally overnight , and went on to a high of almost $35 , so perhaps most of the upside is baked into the price already.
I usually stick to lower priced stocks for short term trades , there seems to be more upside to them in the same situation , I know it should't be , but I think it's just human nature , I like to buy into companies that I can justify buying 1000 shares or more.
HGSI
Below is some of their T/A , not that I place that much importance on T/A , but many swear by it and trade on it alone.
Hmmm......*

HGSI

Short Term Indicators 
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Hold 
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold 

Short Term Indicators Average: 60% Sell
20-Day Average Volume - 6,177,100

Medium Term Indicators 
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price	Buy 

Medium Term Indicators Average: 50% Sell
50-Day Average Volume - 4,051,872

Long Term Indicators 
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy 

Long Term Indicators Average: 33% Sell
100-Day Average Volume - 3,445,796

Overall Average: 56% Sell


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i know i know i'm just a fired forgotten pastry but purely for the sake of debate this pie wishes to say that it fails to see the potential in last-minute speculations in emerging pharmas that are on the cusp of FDA approval announcements. Looks like gambling to me.

approval is baked into human genome's 24.20 price. One year ago shares changed hands at 28. With only a momentary whiff up into the low 30s, they've been sliding ever since.

go back 18 months & hgsi was a penny stock. That was the time to buy. The hedge funds were piling in. Where were all the canadian day-trading lap-dancers in early 2009.

the pastry says that right now the smarts are selling and possibly shorting. Although there will likely be a further upward swing when approval is formally announced next month, and maybe an even bigger pop if glaxo takes out hgsi, nevertheless the probability is that the top has been sighted.

do you see that outrageous open interest in hgsi dec 25 and 26 calls. On friday alone 2192 dec 26 calls traded. While we can never know for sure what strategy lies on the other side of large call positions, the novice view that these are bullish positions is often wrong. More often, huge open interest in calls indicates shorts who have bought these calls as a hedge.

emerging health sciences sector is the most difficult sector of all in which to invest. It's a fulltime job. It means monitoring all the university medical research faculties worldwide, because it's from these that the promising pharma & device startups are spun out. Like stem cell research out of cambridge uk. Bio-sci investing means attending breaking-edge medical conferences. It means holding a postdoc in the biosciences.

whew !! not something for your plain everyday kitchen tourtiere from the lac-st-jean.


----------



## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

I don't mind gambling at all with small amounts of money. In fact, sometimes I see it as my casino fix because I like going to the casino. I made money on HGSI when I bought at $20, $26, and $30. 

Most of my money is pretty safe but I set aside some money for speculation even if it looks like most of the run up is over. I don't pretend that it has higher hopes than it actually does.

In May, I bought DNDN at $39 and then it popped to like $55 after an FDA report and I sold immediately the next day. I was more than happy to take that gain especially with the low commission fees with Questrade. 

I appreciate any research that people have done on this forum so that they are added to my radar and then I can look into them myself.


----------



## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

I normally exclude bio-techs from my screens... just too crazy for me. Very binary.

I wanted to copy into this thread a post I wrote elsewhere - it seems more appropriate here in this discussion. Especially as there has been some great discussion above about trading psychology. I wrote this for a newby trader - but much of the content is good for even experienced investors. Especially Elder's books if you are trading and have not read them. Lots of good resources below:

Although you may need more than this - read a lot. Start with Elder's stuff IMO.

http://shop.elder.com/shopdisplayproducts.asp?id=1&cat=Books

Specifically:
Trading for a Living
Come Into my Trading Room
Entries and Exits

In that order. You don't have to buy them from him, I have gotten all three from the library although the wait list was LONG. Get the study guides with the books - library had them too. I have not read "Sell and Sell Short" yet so I can't comment on that one.

There is lots of other free content out there too - just beware it's source always. Here is a couple of free podcasts:
http://www.optionsource.net/commentary.php - Canadian guys that cover our markets.

http://www.tradingacademy.com/radio/ - Run by Online Trading Academy - office in Toronto - but good free trading daily podcast - call in at 6:00 PM at night (you can watch online) and get free courses on CDROM

http://www.theuptrend.com/Index.aspx
Just found this one on iTunes - daily short market chart review videos you can sign up for - free - every morning at 7:00 AM.

Lastly - and I can't highlight this one enough for the value you get for FREE:
http://www.optionseducation.org/
Yes it is options focused - but it's run by the Options Industry Council so it's very even handed, up front about risks, and not biased as this content is not provided by a broker. The amount of free education here is quite amazing. The OIC guys also have a free podcast that is excellent and you can get all of that off of their education site as well. I subscribe to that podcast in iTunes.

I've also been pretty happy with http://www.optionsxpress.ca/index.aspx
You can open an account for free, get all of their education, and never fund the account at all if you want. I know there are tons of other great online brokers in Canada - read the Globe's latest survey and look at the education and tools reports - yes you need an account to access this but what you don't often need is any money! Make sure that's true before you start but many of the discount brokers will let you open an account and do virtual trading for absolutely 0$. Just be aware that paper trading or "virtual trading" is not what it's really like when money is on the line - read Elder's books for more on this.

Other podcasts (free) to subscribe to or download:
The Disciplined Investor (Andrew Horowitz) - get the book by the same name from the library as well it's not bad. http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/
Andrew also does this one: http://winninginvestor.quickanddirtytips.com/ which is great fundamentals on investing

This is more general but a FANTASTIC podcast:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/

So much great content out there for free!


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

great resources
thanks lephturn.
(not saying i'll read em all  )
but anything that introduces reason & caution into a highly-charged emotional atmosphere is a plus.

at this point perhaps we could all stop in this thread & offer congratulations to furgy, who had the courage to post his buys in real time in the middle of a firestorm. Let's keep our fingers crossed that mela works out for him. I think it probably will. Not because of the metrics in lephturn's analyses & charts, but just on the greater fool theory.

yes bio-sci is the most daunting sector of all. It's worse than the exploratory junior golds in terms of whopping leaps & vertiginous plunges.

here's a more plodding candidate for short-term swing trading. GFS. Compressed propane for gas well fracking. That's as much of a whoosh as a kitchen pie can take. Would you have a view to share leph.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i think scratch gfs.
what about f5networks.
a put spread.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> at this point perhaps we could all stop in this thread & offer congratulations to furgy, who had the courage to post his buys in real time in the middle of a firestorm. Let's keep our fingers crossed that mela works out for him. I think it probably will. Not because of the metrics in lephturn's analyses & charts, but just on the greater fool theory..


ft.com/marketsdata.

The 3 analysts offering 12 month price targets for MELA Sciences Inc (MELA:NAQ) have a median target of 10.00, with a high estimate of 14.00 and a low estimate of 9.00. The median estimate represents a 100.70% increase from the last price of 4.98Consensus Recommendation

I would have to disagree with the greater fool theory , I invest in these companies only when I think they have a product that works , and in this case they do , so I find the margin for error is small and the rewards far outweigh the risks.

It has also been my experience on virtually every biotech that I have traded on pending news , is that if you miss on the short term trade , you usually get a second chance , assuming the product is workable , as in MELA.

That said , there is an element of risk in all investing , and I find , it's hard not to take advantage of the market volatility after going thru 2008 and having all long term holds virtually destroyed , at least temporarily.

I did learn a lot in 08 , and now , my long term holds are all income generating , but I have found in the last year or so , my short term trades have far outperformed even my high income generating REITs , it's hard not to stick with whats working.

Yes , it could be luck , but in my view , finding money in the street or getting an inheritance is luck , researching and investing in a stock is more than just luck , you still have to have the gonads to pull the trigger and play with real money.

Gasfrac is another that I may take a position in , they have a technology that works and saves money over conventional fracturing.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

re gfs i am in for the 3rd time at 8.14, 8 days ago.

i failed to add more last week at 7.30 or 7.40 because the pie, er, waffled.

at least i'm not toast.


----------



## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

Lephturn, those are some good resources. I started with one of Elder's books and some others.

Although not a how-to book, one of my faves is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It's the story of a trader/speculator in the early 1900s that basically incorporates some well-known trading rules of thumb. Read some of the other trading books first but everything just clicked for me after this one.


----------



## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> Lephturn, those are some good resources. I started with one of Elder's books and some others.
> 
> Although not a how-to book, one of my faves is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It's the story of a trader/speculator in the early 1900s that basically incorporates some well-known trading rules of thumb. Read some of the other trading books first but everything just clicked for me after this one.


I'll second the recommendation of Reminiscences - fabulous book that every speculator should read. It's a fictionalized story of Jesse Livermore, and something anybody interested or involved in trading or investing should read.

http://www.investimonials.com/books/

It's the top recommendation at Investimonials, check the link above, there are some other gems in there.

For your entertainment over the holidays and some trading history and wisdom to boot I highly recommend Pit Bull as well.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

lephturn , thanks for the link to that options trading site , it is very informative , I have been taking their options trading course and have learned a lot.

Best of all it's free.

I've never traded options before as I never fully understood them , I have a pretty good grasp of it now.

I can see now where in many instances , options can definitely reduce the downside risk.

Thanks again.


----------



## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

You are very welcome.

Tread carefully at first if you start trading options - but yes the OIC has fabulous and free education. If you take the time to understand the greeks - especially "vega" or volatility - you are ahead of 95% of retail traders IMO.

I'm not sure where you live - but I traveled to Toronto (from Ottawa) for the OIC's Options Education Day and I learned a lot. If you have a chance to do their in-person 1-day event it was well worth it. $50 I think it was, and they feed you all day to boot. Basically free - best $50 I've spent in a long time.

Another great site is LiveVol - I can't spend the money on their tools right now, but their blog is very interesting as a study of options volatility. If I was trading full time I'd buy their service in a heartbeat.

http://livevol.blogspot.com/

It is interesting that options are considered so risky due to the leverage component - when most options strategies (used properly) are LESS risk than owning the stock outright. The idea that owning stock is somehow "safer" than options is ridiculous, but that is the prevailing opinion among the masses. Even the regulators don't have a clue. I am allowed to do a covered call in my RRSP but I am NOT allowed to write a cash secured naked put for some reason... and the risk is exactly the same. In fact the risk of writing the put is LOWER since it's the stock price - the premium I collected. Shame that they "protect" me by preventing me from using my best strategies in my registered accounts.


----------



## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

davext: " ...In addition, citizens in a lot of other countries are 
more motivated to put their money into the stock market 
because they pay no capital gains tax.

I wonder how many more day traders we would have in Canada if 
our income taxes stayed the same as today but trading profits 
were tax free."

jamiechese: "I guarantee you we wont ever see that day..."

@davext & jamiechese: 
There are more factors than the lack of a capital gains that will play into the number of traders. Also - if you check out the following URL, prior to 1972,
Canada did not have a capital gains tax.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2000/10/18/capgains001018.html

I suspect there weren't a lot of day traders prior to 1972 - regardless of the taxes, because there also weren't discount brokers either. When your commission is $100+, after getting a hold of your broker as opposed to the speed of the current online broker, the game is quite a bit different.

Interesting that the US implemented a capital gains tax in 1860 and Canada waited until 1972.


----------



## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

jamiechese said:


> Honestly I think people could be sucessful in day trading if they built up a safety net. I am not sure how day traders prevent themselves from losing too much money. Although I guess for most people its go big or go home. I would have to say though most day traders are likely to have some sort of extra cash set somewhere incase they REALLY screw up.
> 
> Not sure though as I am not a day trader .


While a safety net helps, a bad day-trading strategy, just like a bad investing or for that matter, house building, working or whatever, will end up with losses.

The day trader has to know what his plans are and be disciplined enough to follow the plan.

I had a buddy who was sure he had a great investing strategy. He won several stock market games and it did work for him for about six months. Then he discovered that the strategy didn't cover a falling market. He's now using ETFs instead of lots of stocks.


----------



## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Lephturn said:


> I've been watching the options chain on this thing - it hit my screens a week ago. Crazy implied vol on the options, normally I skip these bio-tech type plays.
> 
> Ideally you would have collared it - sold calls above your stock position and bought puts underneath. If you had you would still have a profit (or close - the options premiums were crazy for the last week on this) or you could have ditched the stock and made good money on the puts. The implied vol on the Nov's is insane since it's basically a binary result.
> 
> For crazy volatile stuff like this you can construct much safer options trades with defined risk instead of just going all-in by buying the stock.


Damn! , a week ago I didn't even understand what that meant.

I may change some of my investing strategies from here on in , I have my account changed to a margin account for options trading when I feel ready.

This is what I like about these forums , every so often , something comes up that you need to know.

I may PM you with a question or two I have about options , if that's OK.

You too Humble , even tho I fired you , perhaps I could consult with you on a contract basis.

Thanks guys.


----------



## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

furgy said:


> While we're on the subject of day/swing trading , I'll give you another example of what I feel is a can't loose situation , another one I made great money on. [ ... ]
> 
> I picked it up at $2.17 and sold a month later at $3.75 !! [ ... ]
> 
> ...


Congratulations on your success. 

Personally, I'm quite happy with the one I picked up in Mar 2009. I paid $3.80 for it, the divdends restarted in Jun 2009. When my account gets Nov's dividend, I'll have been paid $1.80 per share. It also doesn't hurt that the last I looked, it was trading at $11.

As for why other can't see the opportunities - in my experience, there is the time factor but also others such as:
a) not taking the time to understand the business the company is in plus
what drives it.
b) as you mention, following the herd.
c) not tracking a stock. My co-worker told me I was crazy to buy RIM at $50
as the iPhone would kill it. Having watched through four cycles betwen
$26 and $260 per share, ignoring splits - I didn't have his concerns. It
was up $20 in three months.
d) not sticking to their plan.
e) forgetting why they bought it and what circumstances they should sell.
f) not knowing what they were comfortable with.
g) lack of discipline.

Plus a whole lot more.


I would say though that like me, you are atypical for an active investor. If I've understood your posts, your strategy is to limit the capital amount at risk and move profits into investments that don't require as much management.

This opens up a much wider field of play to cherry pick the best.


----------



## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

Kirkx said:


> Full time job is a no no if you are serious about trading. "Furgy" has a great setup, he has his own business and has lots of flexibility during trading hours.
> 
> When I was still working full time I tried to work nights and trade at day time, but it wasn't such a great idea. You come home in the morning and you want to go to sleep and not to sit for six hours in front of the computer. I know some doctors who are hooked to their laptops checking the markets at work whenever they have a break, it must be very frustrating.
> 
> From my experience, you either trade full time, or you work full time. Any attempt to do both will compromise your profits and might also lead to health problems down the road.


Generally speaking, yes. However, there are also a couple of other things that I believe makes it easier for him. 

First he's limited his risk by having other sources of income and setting a limit on how much capital. A string of losses, if they were to occur, aren't going to put pressure on him to "make it back quick or I wont' be eating next week".

Secondly, when he does make money, he's keeping the original amount and moving the profits into investments that require less time to manage. Most of the attempted day traders I've talked to, at some point spread their profits into more and more stocks, increasing their workload/stress.


----------



## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

furgy said:


> Damn! , a week ago I didn't even understand what that meant.
> 
> I may change some of my investing strategies from here on in , I have my account changed to a margin account for options trading when I feel ready.
> 
> ...


Ping me any time. Make sure you do lots of education around options first and start small - plays that define your risk are excellent choices such as spreads or (occasionally when conditions warrant) purchasing options.

Make sure you suck up all of the free education here: http://www.optionseducation.org/

I've learned quite a bit I didn't know here as well - currency swap gambit, Smith Maneuver, and lots more. Great bunch of folks here overall!


----------

