# Time to unload?



## peterboro31 (May 11, 2010)

Is it a normal cycle or is it time to unload prior to a major correction?


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I will not sell anymore at our age. I also do not buy crappy/ speculative stocks or day trade like most members here. 

I learned my lesson when the market crashed in 08 and I sold blue chips and etfs at a loss. I re bought some and sold again. The brokerage made some money and I lost.


----------



## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

When is the major correction?


----------



## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Only Goldman Sucks knows, and they're not tellin'


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

The best time to sell is yesterday.
And this is always true


----------



## jamesbe (May 8, 2010)

Co-worker told me it was April 30th -- that's the day, no question


----------



## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

If I had to pick a day, it would be May 4th, very close to last year's flash crash, the end of earnings season, QE2 ending, US budget crisis looming, Sell in may & go away etc .....


----------



## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

unload? unless your age is >75 there is absolutely NO VALID REASON to sell anything.


----------



## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

I have been at this investing game for a very long time, but each time it happens it completely amazes me how one day everyone can be quite happy with their stocks, the world seems to be OK, the economy is not too bad and then WAMMO, with nothing really new taking place, except a few hundred points down in the stock index, doom and gloom seems to shoot out at you from everywhere you look.

Where yesterday you can be happily adding up how much money you are going to make when the great stocks you own hit the target prices you have, and in only one day later you are wondering how low the dogs you own can go and what in the world were you thinking when you bought them.

It's quite amusing at times.


----------



## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

OptsyEagle said:


> I have been at this investing game for a very long time, but each time it happens it completely amazes me how one day everyone can be quite happy with their stocks, the world seems to be OK, the economy is not too bad and then WAMMO, with nothing really new taking place, except a few hundred points down in the stock index, doom and gloom seems to shoot out at you from everywhere you look.
> 
> Where yesterday you can be happily adding up how much money you are going to make when the great stocks you own hit the target prices you have, and in only one day later you are wondering how low the dogs you own can go and what in the world were you thinking when you bought them.
> 
> It's quite amusing at times.


the sky is falling !!!


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> The best time to sell is yesterday.


Actually, it was last Friday [for me]. 

I sold all the EGO shares I had purchased last month, with the specific purpose of trading and not holding [will trade them again]. 

Also sold a portion of ADBE & KERX to get back 20% $USD for days like today.

Some profit taking is necessary for the yo-yo markets we are in, in fact, it is precisely the continued market volatility that gave me the incentive to learn how to trade.


----------



## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> Actually, it was last Friday [for me].
> 
> I sold all the EGO shares I had purchased last month, with the specific purpose of trading and not holding [will trade them again].
> 
> ...


for people investing in non-registered accounts like myself:

profit taking = premature gift to the taxman


----------



## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

Why would someone unload after a downturn? Seems like a perfect receipt for losing money.


----------



## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

larry81 said:


> unload? unless your age is >75 there is absolutely NO VALID REASON to sell anything.


Indeed. I just bought $21.6K of something that I hold way too much of already and it would be poo pooed by most here. Meanwhile the thing keeps a growing and coughing up dividends and its stock price keeps going up...


----------



## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

clovis8 said:


> Why would someone unload after a downturn? Seems like a perfect receipt for losing money.


but how do you know we are *after* a downturn? We may be after, perhaps before, in the middle or in the first week of it?


----------



## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

Homerhomer said:


> but how do you know we are *after* a downturn? We may be after, perhaps before, in the middle or in the first week of it?


Exactly why timing the market is a sure fire way to lose money.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

clovis8 said:


> Why would someone unload after a downturn? Seems like a perfect receipt for losing money.


No, it does not make sense to me either [except in extenuating circumstances]. Such days are good for buying, averaging down, accumulating and/or buying shares for trading purposes. 

But I don't think the OP meant selling at this very moment, rather, whether it is time to take profits sooner rather than later in case of a worse correction [if I understood correctly].

2 out of the 3 stocks I sold last Friday, I could have bought again today for almost the same price I paid a month earlier, so I'm very glad I sold.

Some of the more volatile stocks have become very predictable, so timing the market with respect to some stocks is indeed possible to a certain degree. I do not borrow money, am patient & only sell at a profit.

*@larry81:* I get your point!


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

DavidJD said:


> Indeed. I just bought $21.6K of something that I hold way too much of already and it would be poo pooed by most here. Meanwhile the thing keeps a growing and coughing up dividends and its stock price keeps going up...



I love BCE too.


----------



## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

Eder said:


> I love BCE too.


Me too as an investment, but as a customer, I HATE them.

At what point do customer sentiments influence the stock price? BCE sure isn't winning over the hearts of customers lately (if ever).


----------



## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

I like to buy all the companies I hate as a consumer. Big rip offs = big profits in capitalism. Doesn't matter if everyone hates them as long as the CRTC likes them


----------



## J3ff (Mar 20, 2011)

Xoron said:


> Me too as an investment, but as a customer, I HATE them.
> 
> At what point do customer sentiments influence the stock price? BCE sure isn't winning over the hearts of customers lately (if ever).


You hit it on the head Xoron. As a customer, BCE has terrible service and they darn well know they can treat their customers like cruddy cheese because who else are you going to go to? There are so few and they all treat customers on various levels of rotting cruddy cheese. However, as an investor BCE is magical. I guess the secret is to buy a company with a monopoly...period.


----------



## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

J3ff said:


> You hit it on the head Xoron. As a customer, BCE has terrible service and they darn well know they can treat their customers like cruddy cheese because who else are you going to go to? There are so few and they all treat customers on various levels of rotting cruddy cheese. However, as an investor BCE is magical. I guess the secret is to buy a company with a monopoly...period.


It helps that their main competitor for core business has the same policies!


Cheers


----------



## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

larry81 said:


> for people investing in non-registered accounts like myself:
> 
> profit taking = premature gift to the taxman


Until you take a profit, it is premature to worry about tax. Then you have RRSP and various other schemes to offset the tax gain. A good headache instead of a bad one.


----------



## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Hold all current assets. New income going into cash. Hopefully when that cash is ready to be deployed, a nice correction will have played itself out.


----------



## olivaw (Nov 21, 2010)

peterboro31 said:


> Is it a normal cycle or is it time to unload prior to a major correction?


I know with almost 100% certainty that a major correction is coming. I just don't know when.


----------



## peterboro31 (May 11, 2010)

http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2011/01/current-us-debt-ceiling-next-debt-ceiling-vote/


Nice bounce today; read the above as this could impact Canada via negative 
resolution of their current impasse ; impact by mid May.


----------



## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

J3ff said:


> You hit it on the head Xoron. As a customer, BCE has terrible service and they darn well know they can treat their customers like cruddy cheese because who else are you going to go to? There are so few and they all treat customers on various levels of rotting cruddy cheese. However, as an investor BCE is magical. I guess the secret is to buy a company with a monopoly...period.


For internet, Teksavvy
For home phone, Teksavvy
For TV, Antenna
For Cell, Mobilicity

I'm in the GTA, and realize that my choices are a little broader than most, but you can vote against Bell using your dollars.

And I wish they were a true monopoly, but this quasi monopoly (look we're a for profit company, unregulated by the government, ohhhh CRTC doesn't like that last business move, better back track.)

Either truly open it up to competition, or regulate the hell out of them. Bell does have somewhat of a unique situations compared to most companies in Canada.

Oh wait, I own shares in BCE, strike all that stuff... The system works perfectly


----------



## J3ff (Mar 20, 2011)

Xoron said:


> For internet, Teksavvy
> For home phone, Teksavvy
> For TV, Antenna
> For Cell, Mobilicity
> ...


Hahaha , yes it's true. I'll probably switch over to Teksavvy at a later date. They finally offer cable Internet (I checked last year and they didn't have cable Internet)


----------



## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Teksavvy started to increase their prices and add on these extra MLPPP charges when I last looked to convert over. I think I'll stay with Bell for an extra few bucks


----------



## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

A little side question:
With the chart below regarding BCE dividend shares, is the "record" date the same as the ex div date meaning you need to own the shares by this date to qualify? I assume the declaration date is simply when they tell the shareholders the dividend will be paid based on the record date?
thanks


----------



## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

Here is the chart


----------



## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

For the last dividend:

March 11 was the ex-date, you would have to buy before this day to get the dividend
March 15 was the record date, always 3 trading days after the ex-date

Declaration date is when they tell you these dates.


----------



## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

Xoron said:


> For internet, Teksavvy
> For home phone, Teksavvy
> For TV, Antenna
> For Cell, Mobilicity
> ...



Hmmm ... can you vote against Bell?

Based on this article, I'm not so sure:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...s-competitive-market-teksavvy/article1778211/

You may not be giving 100% directly but it seems that Bell is likely getting your money.


... maybe if you went Rogers .... 


Cheers


----------



## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Rogers > Bell

BCE > RCI.B

Simple.

Have Bell's dividends pay for Rogers monthly bills.


----------



## smihaila (Apr 6, 2009)

mode3sour said:


> I like to buy all the companies I hate as a consumer. Big rip offs = big profits in capitalism.


That's not a moral/ethical thinking. You think that you are gaming the systems/the others, but you're still part of the same system (and hence, contributing to making those companies behaving in an even more irresponsible way, tricking customers, not offering value for the money etc). It's as if somebody would say he's never invested in the stock market or contributed financially to any war. But where his pension plan is invested into? Or where is his tax money goes to?

The fur and skin on the wolf will never admit that it's aware of what the wolf is doing. It just cares about being properly fed


----------



## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

smihaila said:


> That's not a moral/ethical thinking.


as far as i am concerned, investing is not about moral/ethics/emotions.

Disclosure: i hate bell with a passion


----------



## J3ff (Mar 20, 2011)

KaeJS said:


> Rogers > Bell
> 
> BCE > RCI.B
> 
> ...



Hahaha...so true . Although, I find it incredibly puzzling...I suppose the asset management arm of BCE is better than RCI's.


----------



## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

I hope there is a major crash in the stock market before I start investing. I like to wait for 70% sales on any products, so a crash would be more than welcome. I'm about to get my RRSP money out of the stock market.


----------



## smihaila (Apr 6, 2009)

larry81 said:


> as far as i am concerned, investing is not about moral/ethics/emotions.


Maybe. But what I wished to bring attention to, is the fact that we are all part of a system, if you look at the aspect from a holistic approach. You can't just believe yourself that you found something to trick the "others". We trick one to each other. Look at another example: we "invest" in bonds issued by provinces or by the State. Who's gonna pay that interest? Our taxes, you see  We just move the money around, and the "investments" scheme looks merely as a soft/clever way to steal money from others 

A true investment IMHO is the one that's your worked/earned money, investment in yourself/education OR when you directly feed capital into small companies/private entrepreneurship initiated by someone that you know and trust. Not these big, faceless companies, where Wall Street & co has agents infiltrated everywhere and are controlling the board etc. Or where a lot of profits get paid to the board members and CEOs and to you, the little investor, almost nothing gets.


----------



## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

larry81 said:


> as far as i am concerned, investing is not about moral/ethics/emotions.
> 
> Disclosure: i hate bell with a passion


Would you invest in a stock of a company that produces weapons that will kill ordinary people in an unjust war? That's what the author of "Mad Money" did! He even brags about it in his book! He knew the war on Iraq was coming, and he made lots of money with murder. The more people were killed, the happier this P.O.S. was.


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Taxsaver said:


> Would you invest in a stock of a company that produces weapons that will kill ordinary people in an unjust war? That's what the author of "Mad Money" did! He even brags about it in his book! He knew the war on Iraq was coming, and he made lots of money with murder. The more people were killed, the happier this P.O.S. was.


Do you own oil stock (or even a S&P index EFT)...Arab countries have little regard for life....you could be (probably are and so am I) subsidizing 1000's of deaths.
Hypocrisy imo.


----------



## Financial Cents (Jul 22, 2010)

Why would you ever sell? I'm not. Let things crash another 20%-30%; I'll find some money somewhere and buy some more blue-chips and ETFs.

I like what Jungle had to say.


----------



## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Taxsaver said:


> Would you invest in a stock of a company that produces weapons that will kill ordinary people in an unjust war? That's what the author of "Mad Money" did! He even brags about it in his book! He knew the war on Iraq was coming, and he made lots of money with murder. The more people were killed, the happier this P.O.S. was.


Do you think _not_ buying the stock will change anything?

I know it sounds a little bit rough, but if you aren't the one capitalizing on it then someone else is. Its up to you whether or not you feel comfortable with it. Some people (like myself) just split it down the line like a lot of successful businesses and companies do and try not to think about the end result. Look at cigarette companies, for instance. They know their products are killing everyone and hurting the environment, but they are capitalizing on it. You know what they say in defense? "We don't force anyone to buy our products, they _want_ to buy them."


----------



## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

KaeJS said:


> Do you think _not_ buying the stock will change anything?
> 
> I know it sounds a little bit rough, but if you aren't the one capitalizing on it then someone else is. Its up to you whether or not you feel comfortable with it. Some people (like myself) just split it down the line like a lot of successful businesses and companies do and try not to think about the end result. Look at cigarette companies, for instance. They know their products are killing everyone and hurting the environment, but they are capitalizing on it. You know what they say in defense? "We don't force anyone to buy our products, they _want_ to buy them."


It's like the American doctors in Guatemala where they deliberately infected hundreds of prisoners, soldiers and patients in mental hospitals with syphilis in the 1940s. The doctors most have thought that if THEY don't do it, others will. 

I understant that you cannot avoid having your money used for sinister reasons anywhere, but I think you should at least make efforts not to do it. What Krammer did is just disgusting. I would like to drag him over to Iraq and make what a famous General of the US Army forced some German citizens after WWII: You force him to pick up dead bodies so he knows what he has contributed to.

I checked my investments, and as far as I can tell, they are not used in things I am morally against.


----------



## slacker (Mar 8, 2010)

How far does it go though? Do you refuse to pay taxes that goes towards military responsible to kill and maim? Do you then move to another country with a more agreeable foreign policy?

I know I have reduce travels to US due to my disagreement with their foreign policy, but I also have about half of my networth tied up in broad market US ETFs. Hypocrisy, of course...


----------



## Taxsaver (Jun 7, 2009)

slacker said:


> How far does it go though? Do you refuse to pay taxes that goes towards military responsible to kill and maim? Do you then move to another country with a more agreeable foreign policy?
> 
> I know I have reduce travels to US due to my disagreement with their foreign policy, but I also have about half of my networth tied up in broad market US ETFs. Hypocrisy, of course...


No hypocrisy. Not in MY case, anyway. I do my best to live a decent life and to create as few problems to others as possible. No situation is perfect. My choices may not be perfect, but I welcome anyone to help me how I can create a better world for everyone. Krammer would go much further than anyone else to make a buck.


----------



## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

webber22 said:


> If I had to pick a day, it would be May 4th, very close to last year's flash crash, the end of earnings season, QE2 ending, US budget crisis looming, Sell in may & go away etc .....


I was off by one day ..... unless .....


----------



## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Financial Cents said:


> Why would you ever sell? I'm not. Let things crash another 20%-30%; I'll find some money somewhere and buy some more blue-chips and ETFs.
> 
> I like what Jungle had to say.


I have taken this mentality as well.


----------



## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't hoping for the 10% correction that the talking heads on CNBC seem so certain is coming.

I just can't commit my money to the market at current levels. Just. Can't. Do. It.


----------



## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I'm holding 10% cash but think I am going to wait longer....if TSX can get down to less than 13000 I want to grab more XIU , RY if it can hit $55. Maybe in mid June?

I hate unloading during a correction....just seems silly.


----------



## Dmoney (Apr 28, 2011)

Taxsaver said:


> Would you invest in a stock of a company that produces weapons that will kill ordinary people in an unjust war? That's what the author of "Mad Money" did! He even brags about it in his book! He knew the war on Iraq was coming, and he made lots of money with murder. The more people were killed, the happier this P.O.S. was.


But at the same time, not investing in these companies wouldn't have prevented the war in Iraq. A company doesn't cease to exist just because people don't want to buy the stock for whatever reason. If more people want to avoid a company's stock for economically irrational reasons (in the sense that it is a good investment decision regardless of morality, ethics etc.) the value of the company will go down until eventually it gets to a point where someone is willing to purchase.

The problem then becomes where to draw a line. Is war profiteering wrong? Are tobacco companies wrong? Alcohol? Gambling? Big Pharma? Wal-Mart? The local neighbourhood grocery store?

There are people who would have no problem with investing in any of these companies, and others who would have a problem with all of them down to the family owned store. Although you will always be leaving money on the table if you don't open yourself up to all of these investments, most people draw a line at some point. However this is strictly a personal point of view, and the detachment from daily operations that equity markets provide to firm owners means that an investor has only a minimum say in what the company is doing.

Right or wrong? That is for each person to decide on their own.


----------



## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

peterboro31 said:


> Is it a normal cycle or is it time to unload prior to a major correction?


I haven't read all the posts in this thread, but it seems to have been derailed. So I went back to the OP.

Pat McKeough's recent "_Toolkit_" series is about "_3 ways to miss out on good investments_".


> *Selling good investments in anticipation of a market downturn:* In times of market pessimism, many investors are tempted to sell all of their stocks, regardless of quality, in hopes of getting back in at lower prices.
> 
> However, selling to sidestep a market downturn rarely works out as neatly or as profitably as sellers hope. First, some stocks hold steady or rise during a downturn — these are often the strongest stocks in the subsequent upturn. And sometimes the downturn ends much more quickly than you expected, and you wind up buying back in months or even years later, at much higher prices.
> 
> Other times, the market moves up, the seller buys back in, and the real downturn begins. That can leave you down 20% or more on a 10% market downturn.


The other two can be found here.


----------



## bmckay (Mar 10, 2011)

You never lose out by profit taking. A good time to unload is whenever your able to take a nice profit.

I bought Cephalon at $56.00 at the end of February. Last month Valeant was wanting to take it out and was offering $73/share. The next day the stock price went up to $76. I sold that day at $76.35 locking in a nice profit. The Valeant bid didn't go through and another company offered $~80/share. Next day stock went up to $80. So I missed out on some money there, but I wasn't a pig and locked in my profit. No regrets there!


----------



## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

bmckay said:


> You never lose out by profit taking. A good time to unload is whenever your able to take a nice profit.


I dunno. Wouldn't mind still owning the 3300 shares of SNC I unloaded over the years. What is left is still 6 or 7% of the portfolio. 

But then the ones I didn't trim go to zero. What's a guy to do?

Would you rather be hanged or shot?

hboy43


----------



## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

bmckay said:


> You never lose out by profit taking. A good time to unload is whenever your able to take a nice profit.


This is simply not true and is very dangerous thinking. The right time to exit a position is determined by your plan when you entered the position. Following the above advice can lead to cutting your winners short - and in the long term you need to be able to let those run to make up for the small losses you will take more frequently.


----------

