# (ARNA) Arena Pharma! (67% in June!)



## Lucy (Mar 10, 2012)

Anyone watching this stock! Obesity drug. FDA deciding next week. I put $1000 in it today just for the experience. Wasn't involved in the DOT.com era. Tired of watching on the sidelines.


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## arc (May 19, 2012)

This is a really tough stock to evaluate. How did you decide on buying? Feels like too much speculation for me.


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## Lucy (Mar 10, 2012)

It's only $1000. I'll get out before the news on 27nd and possibly get back in afterwards based on chart action. I trade on what I see. Fundamentals are nice but they could be false or interpreted differently by the market. 
Heck! Last few days on this, you could buy at the open and sell after a 3-5-10% take.
I just got tired of watching it rocket it upwards. 60 million shares traded today.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Wow! up 11% on a day like today? Interesting play Lucy! :encouragement: :hopelessness: I am sure you got some trailing stops in place... 

Cheers!


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## Lucy (Mar 10, 2012)

37% in one week.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I have been buying/trading/following this stock since March 27th, exactly a day after it was announced that the EMA had accepted the marketing authorization application for Lorcaserin.

It turns out that the last time an anti-obesity drug was approved, was back in 1999, when Xenical was approved after being tested 7+ years on 4,000 patients.

Now 13 years later, there are 2 new drugs waiting to be approved, Arena's *Lorcaserin* [by June 27th] and Vivus' *Qnexa* [by July 17th].

In 2010, both drugs failed to get FDA approval due to cancer signals in rats & other critical issues. 

Fast forward 2 years later, we shall soon find out.

What is for sure, is that these stocks are highly speculative, but very interesting to follow! 

The FDA website has 'The Advisory Committee Briefing Documents' from early May for anyone who is interested to read them [all very scientific].

Good luck to anyone holding either stock!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

And down it goes; from $12+ in pre-trading hours to $9+.

Not for the faint of heart. :stupid:


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## bigbadbull (May 25, 2012)

Big day tomorrow for ARNA!


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## Lucy (Mar 10, 2012)

Word is the drug gets approved. Let's see how accurate this is and if this is already priced onto the stock.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

what word lol.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

That would be the *non-FDA word.* 

This is their 2nd go at an approval, so if the company resolved the key 7 points discussed and reviewed at the Endocrinologic & Metabolic Drugs Advisory Committee this past May, then the resubmitted NDA 22529 shall be approved, if not, then not. :grumpy:

The #1 issue I would think, is whether the increase in valvular heart disease in patients tested with the drug was successfully resolved. The other key issue had been the tumour growth in rats, but which apparently was not the case in humans.

I say 2nd time around has a higher possibility of approval. :encouragement:

Not surprisingly, shares are dropping ahead of today's announcement.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

Buy the rumour and sell the news on this one.

My big fear for the company is once the public sees the limited benefit of the drug they will abandon it. This means they will always have to be churning patients to get sales. This is not the magic bullet that many people are hoping for.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

PMREdmonton said:


> My big fear for the company is once the public sees the limited benefit of the drug they will abandon it.


I'm well positioned for either outcome as I bought the stock back in March.

Care to explain why, if approved, Lorcaserin or any other anti-obesity drug for that matter, will have limited benefits in your opinion? Or do you just mean Lorcaserin specifically?

After all, there is an obesity epidemic on a global scale, especially in NA, so I would think the market would be huge for a safe & effective drug, no?

And let us not forget all the other health problems that 'may' be caused by obesity.

Here are just some problems that I read about [not meant for you PMRE as you're an MD]:

- cancer
- coronary artery disease
- gallstones
- high blood pressure
- high cholesterol 
- infertility
- joint problems
- liver disease
- mental stress
- menstrual abnormalities
- sleep apnea
- stroke
- triglycerides [excessive fat found in blood]
- type 2 diabetes............


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## bigbadbull (May 25, 2012)

Just got approved, trading will resume 1:45 ET according to CNBC

Congrats to all those ARNA shareholders !!!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I noted my optimism on June 13th [on another thread]; lucky 13 I guess. 

Congrats to anyone that had the stomach to hold until the end!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Including you ... congratulations! Was that a fun roller-coaster ride or not? :biggrin:


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Not surprisingly, VVUS' shares are responding positively to the news as well, given their own drug is coming up for approval next month.

Edit: thanks Beaver! To tell you the truth, the learning experience was more fun than the $$$.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

The word was right.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

the word may be right but tis the chapter that matters.

nay the entire volume shall rule at the end of the day.

one of the oldest publishing projects in the world is the assyrian dictionary. They've been working on it for nearly a century now. They still don't have the last word.

http://oi.uchicago.edu/research/projects/cad/

in arna, see how the share price has fallen since approval was announced & trading resumed this pm.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> in arna, see how the share price has fallen since approval was announced & trading resumed this pm.


The FDA word is the only one that counts, and we got that today.

ARNA's stock was $2+ just this May [$1+ a year ago], so the approval was priced in already; had price not jumped 500% since May, we would probably have seen a higher increase than the 30% we saw today. 

What is also very likely to follow, is a significant drop in price, for profit taking and other reasons.

The fact of the matter is that this sector is very complex and not for the faint of heart, it's that simple.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-loss-pill-approved-by-u-dot-s-dot-regulators


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

The clinical endpoint in weight loss was not all that impressive for those who are majorly obese and the pill isn't approved for use in those who are "just trying to lose those last ten pounds". Furthermore, all weight lost is regained once the medication has stopped. I might be happier if the degree of weight loss was 20% which is really what most of these guys need but it was only around 5% which probably isn't going to be enough to have a major effect on all the major disease end points related to obesity. I am also fairly confident that this medication has not been proven to affect those end points either.

Anyhow, it probably does bode well for its competitor's approval as well but I'm not convinced either is going to be the panacea that anyone was hoping for from these medications.

I can see these meds selling reasonably well for a couple of years before seeing a fall off in sales.

The only thing that really helps the majorly obese is diet and exercise for the few who can change their lifestyle or more likely some form of gastric reduction as barbaric as it is.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

PMREdmonton said:


> 1. The clinical endpoint in weight loss was not all that impressive for those who are *majorly obese....*
> 2. all weight lost is regained once the medication has stopped.
> 3. only around 5% which probably isn't going to be enough to have a major effect on all the major disease end points related to obesity.
> 4. The only thing that really helps the majorly obese is diet and exercise....


1. Like with any condition, I don't think any single pill [now or in future], will ever be safe and effective for all, hence all the testing before and after approval. 

The drug in question however, was approved for 'overweight/obese' adults, with at least one weight-related condition, so by the sounds of it, not really intended for the 'majorly obese'.

I'm not sure what the stats are with respect to 'majorly obese' compared to 'obese' and 'overweight', but I imagine that in cases of the morbidly obese [BMI of 40+], other drastic/surgical measures will still be an option, as for some patients, it's a life/death situation.

2. True enough as only surgery can shrink one's stomach [to my understanding], but medication could help with controlling appetite and sticking to a diet [ofc many fail even regular diets]. 

3. This is supposed to be the lost weight after 12 weeks of treatment, but if successful and treatment would be continued, maybe more could be lost? 

4. True, a pill is not supposed to replace diet & exercise anyway, it's simply an addition.

"According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, *more than one-third of adults in the United States are obese."*
http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm309993.htm


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## bigbadbull (May 25, 2012)

share price is taking an ugly hit today


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

I just don't think the clinical end-points for this drug are all that impressive.

I suspect the members of the public who buy this hoping for success either for health or aesthetics will quickly become disenchanted.

I also suspect most drug insurance companies are going to put up major roadblocks for who they will fund for this pill. If they aren't going to fund it I am not sure how many people are going to pay for it out of pocket indefinitely because the effect wears off as soon as you stop it.


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## Lucy (Mar 10, 2012)

She might be on the move again. 13% today. Higher lows looking for a breakout above $11.68.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Mr. Cramer pumped this one today.


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