# Nutrien (NTR)



## GOB

*Potash Corp (POT.TO)*

Any thoughts on getting in here? I bought in at $57.32 in my TSFA and that's gone south pretty badly, so I'm considering lowering my DCA. I feel long term it's still a good play?


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## LBCfan

I bet I have forgotten more about this company than anyone else here knows. 

That being said, I have no clue where the sp is going. I have ideas about their earnings, margins and capital spending.

You seem to like it. Tell me why and I'll share my views (also any facts you want about it). Time for a thread about this company.


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## m3s

Do you know anything about the mine in Sussex? That's where I'm from and I heard it reopened or they built a new one. I wish I got in when it was $90 before the split but I didn't have the cash in place


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## humble_pie

potash has insignificant div, so it's something i'm considering for a diagonal call spread:

- buy 2013 US pot 30 calls;
- sell 2012 US pot 55 or 60 calls.
- net debit 19.10 or 20.65 respectively.
- potential gain is 25 or 30 respectively.
- if nothing much happens by jan 2012 i'll sell short calls again to lower cost base, ie decrease the debit.

one can note that if cash is short, one can put on this position for 19 or 20 plus change per share.


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## humble_pie

sorry should qualify that.

the gross gain (spread) across the diagonal would be 25 or 30 respectively.

however the net gain, ie actual taxable gain in hands of the investor, would be roughly 5.90 or 9.35 per share, respectively. Not including commish. Assuming potash climbs above 55 or 60 prior to the 3rd friday in january 2013. Potential returns north of 30% & 45% respectively, over 20 months. Downside could be negative returns (losses.)

this strategy is similar to a covered call except that the long leg is a 2013 leaps option rather than the stock itself.


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## humble_pie

drat.
diagonal got away from me this am.
it started hopscotching on a bias curve.


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## Yudansha

I wish I knew what you were talking about... Options confuse the hell outta me.


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## Financial Cents

If you're owning it for capital appreciation, I think it will climb back eventually.

If you're owing this stock for yield, there are much better companies to own.

Personally, I'm a yield guy. I like getting paid decent money to be an owner, so I wouldn't own POT.TO because of that reason.


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## LBCfan

mode3:

POT is sinking a new shaft into an ore body they discovered while the extent of the McCully gas field was being explored. The existing mine is operating but its costs are a bit high as they have to deal with water entering the mine. A couple of years ago (and I believe today) they were pumping this water to surface and trucking it to the old Potacan mine site where is was put in a pipe to the Bay of Fundy.

When complete, the expanded mine will produce 2 million tons/yr vs 0.8 million today.


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## dogleg

LBCfan: Evidently you are connected to this POT mining operation . I notice that NA pot. inventories are about 2/3 of their '09 levels while the prices fob Vancouver are about 50% of '09 values. What this says about the supply / demand picture for potash is a bit confusing . What do you make of it ? Is there more world supply than we are told ? I have held POT shares for quite a while and feel it is a commodity with a future unless people stop eating !


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## gibor365

Yudansha said:


> I wish I knew what you were talking about... Options confuse the hell outta me.


Somebody telling that this is investing  100% rouletta


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## dogleg

I'm with you Gibor. Sounds like black jack to me. Did Humble Pie swallow a book of stock market terms ?


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## gibor365

dogleg said:


> I'm with you Gibor. Sounds like black jack to me. Did Humble Pie swallow a book of stock market terms ?


Actually everything iss clear, if POT goes 10% down , he plays double down ...if only 5% - he splits. Did I understand correctly?!


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## humble_pie

gibor you have frequently said how pleased you are with your hex & your bmo bank call option etfs.

the potash spread i'm eyeing is one of these call strategies, except that it's in the wild & not masked by hundreds of others inside an etf. Surely that's no reason to call it rouletta, though.


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## humble_pie

this am i bought pot 2013 jan 30 calls & sold pot 2012 jan 55 calls.

net cost was 19.30 not incl commish.

one can see how the potential gain in the spread is roughly limited to 25. As of today, the return might be 5.70/19.30 over 20 months. Theoretically. Speaking.

in reality return could range from slightly higher in far shorter period of time to loss of 19.30.


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## LBCfan

:dogleg

If you look at POT's 09 annual report you'll see sales of $1.3 B with an average price of ~$400, suggesting sales of 3.25 Million tons. Production was 3.4 M tons. 

Spot prices today are $500-530. Annual sales should be around 9 - 10 M tons.

Inventories are what they are. KCl must be kept inside. When storage is full, production stops. When production can't keep up to sales, inventories drop. POT's CEO stated on the Q1 conference call that they were sold out through June 30.

For farmers, KCl is a discretionary purchase. They factor the expected yield (with and without fertilizer), the expected price of their crops, weather outlook and other costs and risks. If the price of fertilizer is too high, they don't buy. Note the sales difference between 08, 09 and 10. Today, most ag products are up 50-100% vs. 2009, farmers can (and will) buy more as sales volumes have shown. 

Is there more world supply than we are told? No, there is probably less. Look at the various POT sites at http://www.potashcorp.com/about/facilities/potash/allan/ note that the operational capacity is always <= nameplate capacity. That being said, exactly where various companies are with their expansions is not known.

I think they are estimating earnings on the low side. They have a history of doing that. As well, grain prices are very high and farmers cut back on fertilizer in the last couple of years. I'm a bull but even bulls eventually end up in the slaughter house.


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## humble_pie

potash up so strongly since i put on the 1st lot of diagonal spreads i am thinking to buy more.

the way it works: if assigned at 55, would have to deliver stock for $55. Do not own the stock. Broker system considers the short 55 calls to be naked, therefore this strategy requires a strong margin position.

in practical reality the short calls are not naked, they are hedged. If assigned could & would exercise the long calls to acquire stock for 30. The potential gain is $25. Against this gain must be set the cost base, which in this instance is a low $19.30.

the original position is only a few days old. POT has rallied strongly. However the gains in the diagonal call spread outstrip any gains that could have been made by holding plain stock, because of the leverage.


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## KaeJS

This stock is driving me nuts.

I just want it to hit $49.50 and I'll sell.

I do not want to hold it anymore. I'll take my $75 profit and run. Playing with too much margin here and I don't feel comfortable. Not with all this crap going on.

I had a sell limit on this today at $49.50.

High was $49.48! Argh. 

I still think it's good value, but it costs me $0.60/day to hold this thing so I need to get rid of it sooner rather than later.

I really, _really_ don't want to sell below $49.50.


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## Abha

Why didn't you just lower your sell order by 2 cents?

It beats having to sweat it out at night.


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## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> I had a sell limit on this today at $49.50.
> 
> High was $49.48! Argh.
> 
> .


Had this happen to me with Suncor few months back, had a sell order at $42 and it reached 41.98, the rest is history.

I just thought you needed a bit of encouragement this morning ;-)

I also plan on getting out of POT, will be selling around $50, the stock behaved well in the last few days so there is a good chance it will get there. Good company but I prefer cash, and it doesn't pay enough dividends to wait if it turns south.


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## KaeJS

Homerhomer said:


> I also plan on getting out of POT, will be selling around $50, the stock behaved well in the last few days so there is a good chance it will get there. Good company but I prefer cash, and* it doesn't pay enough dividends to wait if it turns south.*


100% Agreed on that front. That's my main concern.


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## humble_pie

potash is excellent candidate for USD diagonal call spread.

insignificant dividend.
rich option premiums.
highly liquid US volume in both stk & options.

many other canadian majors with lo dividends fall into similar go-to-US-options-income-strategy category.


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## KaeJS

Out at 49.88.


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## Dibs

There was some bullish activity in Potash Corp. today. Here is a quote from Forbes.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...lan-and-lululemon-get-options-traders-juiced/



> POT – Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. – The potash producer popped up on our market scanners this morning due to bullish activity in the weekly options that began trading yesterday. Shares in POT surged 5.8% to $45.34 today after a handful of analyst reports suggested shares in fertilizer producers may rally on impending inventory data.
> 
> Traders positioning for the shares to extend gains next week snapped up in- and out-of-the-money calls on Potash Corp., purchasing more than 1,800 in-the-money contracts at the Mar. ’23 $45 strike for an average premium of $0.54 apiece. Call buyers may profit at expiration next week should shares in the Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Company settle above the average breakeven price of $45.54.
> 
> Bullish action spread to the higher Mar. $47.5 strike where some 1,200 call options were picked up at an average premium of $0.15 each. Higher-strike looks may turn a profit for bullish players in the event that POT’s shares add another 5.1% to trade above $47.65 by expiration day.


What are the options traders doing? (I don't know much about options) Does the activity in the options market drive up the stock price, or vice versa?


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## gibor365

Anyone buying POT at this levels? It's not far from 52 weeks low....


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## Dibs

I got my POT dividend from TD today, and they converted it from USD at a rate of 0.97 CAD per USD. Is TD pocketing the 3% in the currency exchange? Why is the potash divvy paid in USD?


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## HaroldCrump

Dibs said:


> Is TD pocketing the 3% in the currency exchange?


Yes


> Why is the potash divvy paid in USD?


Many companies do (most resource/energy companies do).
The only workaround is to hold the security (regardless of whether it's the TSX ticker or the NY one) in a USD account.

I am being brief because this has been discussed previously - search the CMF for detailed discussions.


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## Toronto.gal

Dibs said:


> I got my POT dividend from TD today, and they converted it from USD at a rate of 0.97 CAD per USD. Is TD pocketing the 3% in the currency exchange? Why is the potash divvy paid in USD?


HP has explained this a million times; it's all here.

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showt...-this-to-me?highlight=talisman+pays+dividends

I got $.1393/$.140979729 [CDN/US respectively].

http://www.potashcorp.com/investors/stock_information/dividend_history/


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## Dibs

Thanks Toronto and Harold for the answers.


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## Betzy

Corn is on the rise, what are your thoughts on POT going forward?


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## Barwelle

Corn (and some other crops) are on the rise because of the drought in the US Midwest. Fertilizer industry could be hurt a bit as affected farmers would be less able to afford fertilizer next season. Though other farmers will benefit from higher crop prices. I have no idea what the net effect would be for POT, just food for thought.


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## arc

*POT.TO Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc.*

What do you all think of Potash? Looks like we're getting to 52 week low, time to buy in?


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## bettyboop

I just read the S&P report on TDW and they say 

$10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago $10,061

which made me change my mind about buying some.


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## doctrine

Another person might say that you are now able to buy Potash at a discount, and you can gain back 5 years of holding time. They might also ask if you'd feel more comfortable paying $80 for your shares than $39 that they are trading at now. They might also point out that the quarterly dividend was 3 cents in 2007, and is now 21 cents - or an increase of 600%. 

Of course statistics can tell you anything, and if you picked January 2007 to compare instead of November 2007 then your $10,000 then would be $20,000 now. If you picked 2006 then you would likely have $40,000.


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## bettyboop

That's something to ponder Doctrine, I never thought of it that way, thanks.


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## maxandrelax

I hold a good portion of POT.to underwater, and have been buying COW.to which holds 10% Potash among other agricultural stocks. It is a mega trend that will pay off in the next few decades imho.


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## Snuff_the_Rooster

I just got a trigger on POT for our watch-list long. We've tagged June's low area is where that came from. Starting to look tempting. I call this one half-ditched for us. I'll watch and wait for now.


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## Snuff_the_Rooster

Ahh, I like it afterall. Good volume too. We're in first bite - hedged @ 37.74 USD


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## Snuff_the_Rooster

love this total market flush. added X2 @ same price. decent size, decent price. Will wait and see what transpires from here.


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## dubmac

I started a position here too in my TFSA - 37.80.
I'll wait and watch and maybe add if we get a bigger drop later.


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## londoncalling

I bought the US version at $39.00 last week. Apparently I jumped the gun a bit on my entry but I am content as I placed the order over a month ago at that price and have been trying to stick to my entry price targets. I would rather pay a bit more with a predetermined price that I thought was good value than undercut my price only to miss it by a few pennies. I am not gonna sweat it as it is a long term hold and not a day or swing trade.

Cheers.

I expect to see some more bargains in the next while as we approach the eventually solvable fiscal cliff. 

Partisan politics = investor uncertainty = panic = high volatility = deals deals deals


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## arc

I am considering a straddle:
APR 2013 CALL 38: $2.50 + JAN 2013 PUT 38: $1.65 (OR APR 2013 PUT 38: $2.80)
Thoughts?


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## thompsg4416

I just bought in 100 x 38.88.. Possibly a bit high but close enough to the 52wk low that I'm ok with the price. Long term this is a solid play although I can't say I love the yield. Capital appreciation should make up for it -especially if we get past this whole fiscal cliff thing and things pick up in the uS.


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## Argonaut

Not a bad trade at all right now. Buy here, and sell at $45. Very high probability of a 16% return. The trade loses if Potash never reaches $45 again (unlikely, it has catalysts), or if it takes too long (3+ years) to do so. In the meantime you could sell calls on it.


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## Ag Driver

I averaged $40.597 . I'm hoping to hold until it hits 46.50 for just over a 10% gain including commissions, not including dividends.


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## thompsg4416

Ag Driver said:


> I averaged $40.597 . I'm hoping to hold until it hits 46.50 for just over a 10% gain including commissions, not including dividends.


46.50 - When do you expect it to hit that?

I still think its a good long term hold but I sold when it was over 40 for a 5% take home. I bought it thinking long but i sold it short Its currently at 39.77. If it drops below 39 again I might pick some up in the new year.

Edited to add.. I believe there will be a demand for potash going forward as the whole world needs to increase yields.. but recently if I recall, I read an article which stated that BHP biliton is opening a a big potash mine in Sask and there is likley to be a glut in the potash market in a year or 2. My time line may be off but the general facts should be right.


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## Toronto.gal

thompsg4416 said:


> I read an article which stated that BHP Billiton is opening a a big potash mine in Sask and *there is likely to be a glut in the potash market in a year or 2.* My time line may be off but the general facts should be right.


Yes, your timeline is a bit off. 

BHP had a pretty busy and challenging 2012, with some untimely expensive purchases, like Petrohawk for example, hence they have cancelled/postponed various national/international projects & expansions, and Jansen had been one such delayed project.

The Jansen potash mine in Saskatoon, and the one that would become the largest in the world, is no cheap adventure & with a full cost estimated at close to what they paid for Petrohawk [$12 billion+], Jansen is not a big worry atm.

*'The Jansen project is the company’s first foray into the potash industry; it is estimated to cost $12 billion and will haul 8 million tonnes a year at peak production in 2026. The project is a big, bold first step aimed at unsettling the fertile grounds of the global potash market.'*

http://potashinvestingnews.com/6754-bhp-billiton-jansen-potash-mine-supply-demand-saskatchewan.html

As for POT, Bill Doyle wants to increase the company's ownership in other foreign potash companies, like ICL for example [from the current 14%], to gain access to other big markets in Asia, like China & India.

I'm a very active/passive investor in POT [hold & trade].


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## Ag Driver

thompsg4416 said:


> 46.50 - When do you expect it to hit that?


If I knew, I would be the one writing the books  . It's just an exit point I have set in mind. Realistically, I would be happy selling anything at over 2%. For now, I am merely just trying to beat a high interest savings account. At this point in time I am entry level with very little shares, and I am using my first few stocks as forced learning. Having said that, I feel that Potash is a good thing to be buying into, considering it's relevance to what I see and use on a seasonal bases as an aerial applicator. I plan to hold long term and add too it as I see fit, considering it is an alright dividend stock. 

Given the past couple agricultural seasons, and this years US agricultural season, the demand will be there for fertilizer for this coming up season. The commodity price hikes are making applications more and more valuable with the added yields.


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## underemployedactor

Speaking of Potash, which I hold, anybody know what's happening with Allana Potash? Up 12% yesterday and I can't figure out why....


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## maxandrelax

Any thoughts on Pot as a seasonal trade? I am a long holder, but am looking to increase.


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## AGHFX

I've been holding this one for a little while now and I haven't noticed a direct seasonal cycle. I did, however, notice that this stock always seems to have a pullback at earnings. I want to add to my position but I'm hoping for it to drop below $40. Fingers crossed on April 25.


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## dubmac

me too. I'm also wondering what impact BHP's big $12B potash mine (that is yet to deliver any potash) will have on the price of potash and POT. Not sure when this mine is set to open, or whether it is being developed presently.


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## Ethan

dubmac said:


> me too. I'm also wondering what impact BHP's big $12B potash mine (that is yet to deliver any potash) will have on the price of potash and POT. Not sure when this mine is set to open, or whether it is being developed presently.


BHP's first mine is being built at Jansen Lake. It's not scheduled to go into commercial production until 2017. K+S is developing the Legacy potash mine. I'm not sure what their timeline is, given that it is a solution mine it should hit the market before Jansen Lake, which is a conventional mine. Although the mines won't hit the market for several years, when they do they could dramatically alter the landscape in the potash industry. Saskatchewan produced ~13 MT of potash in 2010. Jansen Lake is an ~8 MT mine, and Legacy is a ~2 MT mine.

Also remember that Potash is one of 3 fertilizers that POT produces. POT also has several phosphate mines and nitrogen plants in the US.


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## AGHFX

I'm hoping this drops another dollar or two so I can add to my position


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## maxandrelax

AGHFX said:


> I'm hoping this drops another dollar or two so I can add to my position



Not sure this is going to happen, held support today around that 39.50. GLTA


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## Dopplegangerr

Im sick of seeing it drop, I own 800 shares around the $41 mark lol.


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## HaroldCrump

Dopplegangerr said:


> Im sick of seeing it drop, I own 800 shares around the $41 mark


You are down only 2.5% dude !
What are you complaining about?
Surely you can handle a 2.5% drop of a stock, esp. one that pays a dividend of about the same %.


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## AGHFX

I got in a little over $39. Still hoping the price drops another dollar or two - I want to add to my position.


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## Dopplegangerr

O I am fine Harold. Just that its a decent portion of my portfolio and I am keen to see some green. Especially now looking at my gold and silver stocks where I am getting raped. I could use something to balance me out


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## fatcat

pot is closing in on breaking below 40
the dividend is around 3.6 and i have been watching this one for a while
i usually look at insider selling
and i see that pot has very large recent (middle of june) net selling by the ceo-56M and cfo-23M
opinons welcome on pot


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## liquidfinance

Any updated thoughts on this one?


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## maxandrelax

There is an note in the Globe today:
While it may take a while to pay off, investors who buy Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. now will ultimately be rewarded, said Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen.

The potash industry has been busy cutting long-term capacity plans over the past nine months, with a flurry of project deferrals and cancellations around the world. While the shift is arguably for the better for the potash industry, “it will likely take time to fully appreciate,” Mr. Hansen said in a research note.

For one thing, “near-term forces” suggest muted pricing for potash in the second half of this year, he said.

“While we acknowledge it’s difficult to identify any near-term catalysts for Potash shares, we believe the current share price fails to account for the compelling medium and long-term upside we see for the shares,” he said.

Target: Mr. Hansen cut his price target by $4 to $44 (U.S.) but reiterated an “outperform” rating. The average target is $45.32 (U.S.), according to Bloomberg data.


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## fatcat

maxandrelax said:


> The potash industry has been busy cutting long-term capacity plans over the past nine months, with a flurry of project deferrals and cancellations around the world. While the shift is arguably for the better for the potash industry, “it will likely take time to fully appreciate,” Mr. Hansen said in a research note.


that is my understanding also and i bought just under 40 and plan to hold a long time ... management is committed to growing the dividend ... it will be volatile but i think will get there eventually

you must have potash to grow stuff ... few products can say that


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## dubmac

I hold a small amount of POT - I plan to add more.

I have some concerns on the impact of the BHP potash mine - apparently it is expected to be a huge operation - and one the could undermine (?) POT. Anyone have an opinion on this and the impact on POT in the near and longer term.


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## Toronto.gal

I own BHP/POT shares, so I think I'm covered. 

*Jansen potash project is ‘just an option’, BHP’s Mackenzie says*
http://www.mining-journal.com/produ...oject-is-just-an-option,-bhpbs-mackenzie-says

I'm not too concerned with 'near-term catalysts/forces' [for POT specifically] given that I'm a long-term investor [+trader of same].


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## londoncalling

I do have some knowledge regarding the BHP Jansen mine as I am distantly involved remotely in the construction of the mine and grew up just miles from the site. My understanding is that BHP is idling along slowly on the project and is nowhere near their initial construction targets. If/when the mine is operational it could flood the market with potash but the commodity (like most) is quite cyclical. Tough to say what consumer demand or the price of potash will be by then. I do like the growing dividend as well as the long term prospect for this and also own shares @ a price of < $40. Sadly have held them for quite some time so haven't seen much growth. Longer term it will be fine and I will probably have wished I bought more


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## humble_pie

londoncalling said:


> ... own shares @ a price of < $40. Sadly have held them for quite some time so haven't seen much growth. Longer term it will be fine and I will probably have wished I bought more



a way to wring capital gains out of standstill stocks, aka good old stocks that keep on trading within certain bands, is to write options on em. London you of all people would be good at this i think. Had you ever considered the idea?


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## londoncalling

Thanks for the kind words HP. I have been selling puts on this one and have considered a covered call strategy. I have yet to wade into the options world whole hearted. I have also considered trading the seasonality. still got my training wheels on when it coms to trades with my long term holds.


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## liquidfinance

londoncalling said:


> Thanks for the kind words HP. I have been selling puts on this one and have considered a covered call strategy. I have yet to wade into the options world whole hearted. I have also considered trading the seasonality. still got my training wheels on when it coms to trades with my long term holds.


I keep looking at dipping my toes into the world of options myself. I have done quite a bit of reading but currently still to get round to having authorisation put onto my account.


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## londoncalling

Earnings miss today. Could be a good buying opportunity. I am hoping to lower my acb today and collect a yield in the 3.5% range while I wait for this one to go back up. GLTA. 

Cheers


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## Jungle

Maybe time to start a position. Down 4-5% on earnings miss. They are doing a big share buy back.


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## blin10

always wanted to start a position in this thing, finally decent price and got in, might go down more but not worried, it's a good blue chip at 52week lows


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## Synergy

I've been watching this for a while, also started a small position today. Will add more if it drops further in the coming weeks...


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## Toronto.gal

blin10 said:


> 52week lows


Consider it a buy at a 4 year low! :encouragement:

Stock is trading now at just a little above the price I paid in 09, when taking split into account, so great buy IMO.


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## thompsg4416

I just sold my position in BNS and added some POT and BCE. 

Nice drop outside the regular trading band time to pounce I need to earn some money this year, lets hope this was a wise choice.


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## Jon_Snow

POT is now on my radar... thanks for the heads up. Might buy some for wife's RRSP for a nice tax free capital gain (hopefully).


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## My Own Advisor

POT is on my radar, but would hold in USD non-reg. account since dividends in USD.


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## londoncalling

I almost doubled my position this morning at 36.50. :love-struck: This is the 3rd time I have bought. First time in C$. The next two purchases in US$ for the reason mentioned by Advisor above. When I decide to sell I will unload the Canadian version which sadly is the highest of my share purchases.


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## My Own Advisor

Geez, I wish I had money to invest!

Currently saving for new purchases.


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## Toronto.gal

londoncalling said:


> 1. First time in C$. When I decide to sell I will unload the Canadian
> 2. sadly is the highest of my share purchases.


*1. LC:* Just in case you're not aware, you can move those shares to the US side as well, if you wanted to. For that, just call the broker and ask them to have them journaled to the US side.

*2.* Who would have predicted such a drop from just May, when they were nearing $45? If one misses the lower price, at least this was a good chance to DCA.


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## humble_pie

My Own Advisor said:


> POT is on my radar, but would hold in USD non-reg. account since dividends in USD.


each: each:

don't forget that when you come to sell some or all of this holding, you can sell in USD account or get the shares journalled over to sell on CAD side, depending on which currency you might fancy at the time of sale

ie there's a built-in freebie gambit opportunity


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## youngdad3

I started a position yesterday in my CAD non registered account at TDW. I now remember I saw in this forum that they pay dividends in $USD. Should I call to switch to my USD non-reg account? Is there any fee for doing so? I will DRIP, does it change something?

thanks alot, I'm still a noob


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## Toronto.gal

No fee YD. I don't remember, but I think you may have to wait for the shares to settle before transferring, ie: July 30th if you purchased on the 25th.

http://www.moneysense.ca/2012/08/22/canadian-stocks-paying-us-dollar-dividends/


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## youngdad3

thanks for the link T.G, this is what I was looking for.
The only thing I'm not sure is if I DRIP it in my USD non-reg account, will I avoid the double currency conversion that occurs in RRSP accounts?



> Enroll in a Synthetic DRiP
> Unfortunately, an investor enrolling in a synthetic DRiP would incur double the currency conversion charges. See this post for details.


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## liquidfinance

So with this I should contact Questrade and have them deposit the Dividend as USD into the TFSA rather than converting and keeping in the CAD side?

In this scenario is it better just purchase the US listing rather than the Canadian one?


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## Toronto.gal

youngdad3 said:


> The only thing I'm not sure is if I DRIP it in my USD non-reg account, will I avoid the double currency conversion that occurs in RRSP accounts?


The conversion happens only if you have the shares in a CDN account. 

All a DRIP does, is buy shares. Btw, are you aware that for synthetic drips, you need to have enough dividend payments to buy at least 1 share for the DRIP to work? And for it to continue to work as the stock rates go up, it's preferable you have at least 20 or 30 extra shares.

******************* 

I should have mentioned also, that the record date for the Aug. 2nd dividend payment, was on July 12th, therefore, the move of your shares on July 30th [or few days later], won't prevent the conversion fees until the next dividend payment.

http://www.potashcorp.com/investors/stock_information/dividend_history/

But the above made me think, and now I have a question....:confused2:

As per above example

- record date July 12th
- payment date Aug. 2nd
- requests the journaling on July 30th

Question: the investor would not be hit with a double conversion when the dividends come in, would he? Another words, would it best to not request the transfer until after his dividends were received?


----------



## humble_pie

youngdad3 said:


> I started a position yesterday in my CAD non registered account at TDW. I now remember I saw in this forum that they pay dividends in $USD. Should I call to switch to my USD non-reg account? Is there any fee for doing so? I will DRIP, does it change something?


yes, ask the big green to move those shares over to US account. No fee. If you are using margin, remember that this will affect your margin position slightly.

the DRIP should work fine, since it is basically run in US dollars. I haven't begun to research DRIP plans for interlisted stocks yet, but for starters i'm wondering if there are deeply-hidden currency conversions buried in them. Perhaps not in POT at TD DI, because these are probably market DRIPs.

however, for true treasury DRIPs, i'm wondering whether there might be deeply-buried currency conversions, particularly for clients who hold POT in CAD account & expect details to be rendered in canadian dollars. Alas, for me FX fees that might be hidden in DRIP plans for the interlisted stocks are a gigantic new frontier ... too big to visit at present.

i did have an opportunity to interview a potash DRIP supervisor about 6 weeks ago. He turned out to be in new york city. POT's DRIP plan is run in USD. The supervisor agreed that, somewhere in dripping POT, especially for canadians holding the stock in canadian account (most canadian investors still do this) there could be FX fees on the DRIP share purchases.

we commenced wondering who would benefit from such an FX fee. They, the custodians? probably not. Potash itself? it's hard to see how. We got lost in the maze & ended up agreeing that there probably was an FX beneficiary even though it seemed to be a ghost.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> But the above made me think, and now I have a question....:confused2:
> 
> As per above example
> 
> - record date July 12th
> - payment date Aug. 2nd
> - requests the journaling on July 30th
> 
> Question: the investor would not be hit with a double conversion when the dividends come in, would he? Another words, would it best to not request the transfer until after his dividends were received?


I have had several instances where I have transferred shares from one account to another between the dividend Record Date and the Payment Date.
The dividend always came into the original account, and not the new account.
Thus, I believe, the account where the shares lived as of COB on the Record Date will receive the dividends.

I can't say how synthetic DRIP complicates things - I would expect the brokerage to add the new shares to the new account and not the old account.
But I do believe there will be a FX hit unless the shares are transferred prior to the Record Date.


----------



## humble_pie

Toronto.gal said:


> [re potash dividends]
> 
> - record date July 12th
> - payment date Aug. 2nd
> - requests the journaling on July 30th
> 
> Question: the investor would not be hit with a double conversion when the dividends come in, would he? Another words, would it best to not request the transfer until after his dividends were received?


the only thing that matters is the record date (actually, for practical purposes, the day before the X date.)

in this example, if he held potash on record date 12 july in CAD account, then dividend will be paid into CAD account & broker will apply FX fee.

it does not matter where the shares happen to be on dividend payable date. They could be journalled elsewhere, they could be sold, they could be here, they could be there, just like the scarlet pimpernel. But each dividend will home to its target, which is location of shares on the day before the X date.


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## Toronto.gal

Toronto.gal said:


> the move of your shares on July 30th [or few days later], won't prevent the conversion fees until the next dividend payment.


Actually, you won't be eligible for the dividend payment at all since you only purchased yesterday. I had been thinking more along the lines of someone who had purchased prior to July 10th [LCalling made me think that one].

Thanks *Harold.* 

*Edit:* thanks *HP *as well.


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## liquidfinance

T.Gal. Assuming I have USD should I just purchase the US listed stock or should you buy the CAD and Journal?


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## PatInTheHat

Getting in around 36.70


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## youngdad3

@T.Gal: Thanks for reminding me they are under 4% yield so I need more than 100 shares for syntethic DRIP to work, added a few more in the USD account.


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## Toronto.gal

liquidfinance said:


> T.Gal. Assuming I have USD should I just purchase the US listed stock or should you buy the CAD and Journal?


I'm guessing you're asking that because you would pay at current trading prices USD$3676 vs CDN $3776 for 100 sh? 

I would just buy US myself; at the end of the day, 1 POT share = 1 POT share.


----------



## daddybigbucks

Any opinions on Agrium from the potash investors?
Ive held POT for over a year and was going to buy more but recently bought AGU instead.


----------



## maxandrelax

daddybigbucks said:


> Any opinions on Agrium from the potash investors?
> Ive held POT for over a year and was going to buy more but recently bought AGU instead.


I have bought COW.to etf as a way to diversify in the agi sector. It holds AGU, Mosaic etc...


----------



## liquidfinance

Toronto.gal said:


> I'm guessing you're asking that because you would pay at current trading prices USD$3676 vs CDN $3776 for 100 sh?
> 
> I would just buy US myself; at the end of the day, 1 POT share = 1 POT share.


I was asking more in reference to how the dividend payment would be handled. I know for a small amount of shares the forex charges aren't a big issue but every little helps. 

Buy USD listed Stock. Divi paid in USD into USD side of the account.


----------



## humble_pie

it's true that some (many?) cmf members seem to think that, for an interlisted stock, the currency of the dividend payment must inexorably be the same as the currency in which the stock was originally bought & paid for.

nothing could be further from the truth. The currency of the dividend payment will be wired to the currency of the account where the stock happens to be located *only* on the day before the record date of each dividend, but nothing more permanent than that. 

these stocks can easily be moved. Their dividends will follow after like little lambs.

investors have to be pro-active & specifically ask their brokers to journal their stock between CAD side & USD side of an account. It should be understood that a broker, without specific instructions, will do nothing.

if all this seems daunting at first, the fact is that it's tremendously liberating. All of a sudden investor is lifted up to another level where he can command canadian dollars, or US dollars, whichever he needs or wants, simply by selling his stock in one currency or the other currency.

add one more level & investor can sell the options, in one currency or the other currency. Meanwhile holding the underlying stock in the same currency account, or in the opposite currency account (if the latter, watch the margin positions, though.)

all of a sudden, markets & opportunities will double or triple ...


----------



## daddybigbucks

maxandrelax said:


> I have bought COW.to etf as a way to diversify in the agi sector. It holds AGU, Mosaic etc...


low yield with cow but much better performer
http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/chartcache/36015.png

COW is now on my radar, thanks


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## PatInTheHat

liquidfinance said:


> I was asking more in reference to how the dividend payment would be handled. I know for a small amount of shares the forex charges aren't a big issue but every little helps.
> 
> Buy USD listed Stock. Divi paid in USD into USD side of the account.


Yes I think ideally you hold this in USD as they pay dividends in USD. Holding the TSX version would cause a small loss in currency conversions.

Although is there the 15% withholding tax applied to both the USD and CAD versions? (I'm assuming none for Canadians on either)


----------



## HaroldCrump

PatInTheHat said:


> Although is there the 15% withholding tax applied to both the USD and CAD versions?


No withholding tax, regardless of currency of the account.
As long as you are a Canadian resident.
Currency of account does not change the status of your nationality or that of the company paying distributions.


----------



## PatInTheHat

HaroldCrump said:


> No withholding tax, regardless of currency of the account.
> As long as you are a Canadian resident.
> Currency of account does not change the status of your nationality or that of the company paying distributions.


Excellent. Thanks sir!


----------



## humble_pie

you will also receive an accurate T5 tax slip with canadian dividend grossups & canadian dividend tax credits accurately set forth.

this T5 will be in US dollars so figs will have to be converted into CAD for income tax reporting purposes & to claim the tax credits.

the above is true for the bank brokerages but i am not sure about the small privately owned. There have been rumours that IB's system does not handle T5s for interlisted canadian stocks paying USD dividends correctly, when such stocks are held on US side of an account. If i were a client of, say, virtual brokers or IB or questrade, i would look into this issue. Those canadian dividend tax credits are significant & should not be lost.


----------



## Eclectic12

PatInTheHat said:


> Yes I think ideally you hold this in USD as they pay dividends in USD.
> Holding the TSX version would cause a small loss in currency conversions.


It appears that this is broker specific. A Questrade client posted in another thread that their POT dividends where it appears that Questrade is not reducing the dividend by the USD to CAD conversion. I believe the poster was going to monitor going forward to confirm this was the case.




PatInTheHat said:


> Although is there the 15% withholding tax applied to both the USD and CAD versions? (I'm assuming none for Canadians on either)





HaroldCrump said:


> No withholding tax, regardless of currency of the account. As long as you are a Canadian resident.
> Currency of account does not change the status of your nationality or that of the company paying distributions.


Nitpicking a bit here but the question is a bit strange. 

As it is worded, the OP seems to be aware that Canadians will have no withholding tax applied regardless of currency.
Yet the question is about investors that are subject to a withholding tax.

It would appear the more direct answer is that where the investor is subject to withholding taxes (ex. an American), both USD and CAD dividends will be subject to whatever the applicable withholding tax is.


(Is the Canadian withholding tax which an American would pay 15%?)


Cheers


----------



## humble_pie

Eclectic12 said:


> It appears that this is broker specific. A Questrade client posted in another thread that their POT dividends where it appears that Questrade is not reducing the dividend by the USD to CAD conversion. I believe the poster was going to monitor going forward to confirm this was the case



it's not broker specific! i'm familiar with this case & i understand very well how it happened.

the answers are complicated so my heart quails a bit at even venturing to explain them. However fools rush in, so i'll carry on.

all brokers - including questrade - have canadian & US sides to an account. At some of them, such as TD, the demarcations between currencies in non-registered accounts appear very clearly. 

but at other brokers - such as BMO investorline - the demarcations between what is being held under a canadian locator & what is being held under a US locator are not clear to clients. Yes, BMO clients can toggle their accounts apart to find out which stocks are being held in which currency, but few clients do this.

as a result, even in a BMO USD rrsp, it's possible to hold US stocks in canadian account & subsequently - automatically - such a client will be charged FX when his USD dividends are converted to CAD.

how does this happen? it happens when clients from all-canadian rrsp brokers such as TDDI send their rrsp accounts to BMO. All those US stocks arriving from TD will be grouped as "canadian" stocks because TD doesn't have a US locator. Same thing for rrsps arriving from scotia itrade, from cibc, from hsbc, etc.

the BMO staff are fairly good about explaining to these incoming rrsp clients that they *must* pro-actively contact BMO & request that each US stock be journalled over to US side of the account. It is, to my mind, totally reasonable & understandable that the broker cannot do this on its own initiative. The client *must* proactively look after all this.

apparently quite a few clients don't bother. 

a category of "lost" stocks at BMO are the 18 canadian companies paying dividends in USD only. BMO has no method of reporting the FX fee that they do charge upon these dividends, so clients are never alerted that something fishy is going on when their USD dividends on, say, POT are charged an FX fee.

moreover, BMO staff are not aware of this problem & they do not seem to be alerting or helping clients in any way.

we are only just now beginning to transition out of an era in which even the brokers' licensed representatives would deny that any of these 18 companies are paying USD dividends & they sometimes deny that the brokerage houses are charging FX fees on these dividends.

there has been a very slight, almost imperceptible, shift in recent weeks & it is coming from the work of about 3 dedicated persons, all in this forum, who have sought to open up a window of dialogue with the brokers about the righteousness of all these hidden FX fees.

OK back to the questrade case: that particular questrade client was keeping his 100 shares of potash on the canadian side of his rrsp account. He had never known that anything different could be arranged. It worked out perfectly for him, because for a number of reasons he wanted & needed to receive his POT dividend in CAD. 

the lovely aspect of the story is that - almost unbelievably - questrade paid his dividend exchanged into CAD at the bank of canada rate on the record date. This is the rolls royce of broker FXing. No, let us call it the lamborghini. FX rates will never get any better than the BOC rate.

what i don't know is whether questrade is doing this only in its registered accounts. In non-registered, i don't know how questrade is FXing USD dividends from the 18 canadian companies when those stocks are held on canadian side of non-registered questrade account. Of course, clients can easily fix this problem by asking questrade to move such stocks over to US side of account.

to sum up: this is a complicated problem with many nickety details. But in general, clients need to be pro-active. Remember that the broker's default locator is always going to be canadian side of an account. Clients need to look to see where their stocks are actually being held, then specifically ask broker to journal them to opposite currency side of the account if necessary. Journal each stock individually.


----------



## m3s

Eclectic12 said:


> It appears that this is broker specific. A Questrade client posted in another thread that their POT dividends where it appears that Questrade is not reducing the dividend by the USD to CAD conversion. I believe the poster was going to monitor going forward to confirm this was the case.


I had already sold POT after only the 1 dividend in CAD. Just bought my 100 shares back a lot cheaper, in USD this time just to be safe. POT is something I would like to hold for decades.. and the currency exchange would add up over the years. I wouldn't expect to get a free exchange every time


----------



## humble_pie

i for one believe that the bank of canada rate will continue for some time, at least chez questrade & at least for rrsps.

the reason is that the brokers have known for some time now, at the highest levels, that the peasants have figured out some of their FX shenanigans. Brokers probably even know that the rabble element among the peasants is agitating outside the palace gates.

so the brokers have contacted some, perhaps all, of the 18 canadian companies such as potash, who pay their dividends in USD. Brokers have asked these companies to bear the costs of exchanging those USD divs into CAD at a fair rate, which would be the bank of canada rate.

i know for a fact that the brokers did contact potash & did ask the company to bear costs of issuing dividend in CAD without FX fees.

potash itself still pays dividends directly to its registered shareholders. When those registered shareholders live in canada, the company converts the dividend at bank of canada rate on record date, then mails the resulting cheque in CAD to shareholder (note: these are the terms that governed the above-mentioned questrade client's POT dividend, which he had been holding on canadian side of his account.)

it's possible potash has agreed to supply some brokers (all brokers?) with CAD to cover dividends to be paid to some shareholders (rrsp shareholders only? or all shareholders?)

no further information. As i say, a few tiny cracks & fissures are beginning to open up in the stone wall of silence.


----------



## humble_pie

m3s said:


> Just bought my 100 shares back a lot cheaper, in USD this time just to be safe.


it's not enough to buy on US market & pay in USD. Another member said he did this with barrick but he received the dividend in CAD.

the default locator is canada & chez many brokers, that is where the stocks are likely to wind up unless client checks & pro-actively asks the broker to move the shares if necessary.


----------



## PatInTheHat

humble_pie said:


> it's not enough to buy on US market & pay in USD. Another member said he did this with barrick but he received the dividend in CAD.
> 
> the default locator is canada & chez many brokers, that is where the stocks are likely to wind up unless client checks & pro-actively asks the broker to move the shares if necessary.


So you are telling me in my USD Margin Questrade account where I have purchased POT from the NYSE in USD$ is still going to pay me a dividend in CAD? :S


----------



## m3s

PatInTheHat said:


> So you are telling me in my USD Margin Questrade account where I have purchased POT from the NYSE in USD$ is still going to pay me a dividend in CAD? :S


For Questrade just double check settings under account management - currency settlement - "trade currency" or "USD". Not all brokers have these settings, hence all the angry peasants.


----------



## londoncalling

Toronto.gal said:


> *1. LC:* Just in case you're not aware, you can move those shares to the US side as well, if you wanted to. For that, just call the broker and ask them to have them journaled to the US side.
> 
> *2.* Who would have predicted such a drop from just May, when they were nearing $45? If one misses the lower price, at least this was a good chance to DCA.


1. I was aware that I could journal but I thought there was a fee attached to it so I didn't think it was worth it...Now that I know it's free it is a no brainer. Will make my tracking much more simple. Thanks to all who added some expertise and discussion to the thread. Lots to think about regarding DRIP.

2. :encouragement:


----------



## humble_pie

london this has perhaps been a day of overload but there's one last thing that is important imho.

there's no such thing as separate cost bases for some shares bought in CAD plus a different cost base for another bunch of shares bought in USD at a different time, for a different price.

the IRS does have FIFO rules but here in canada we must average the cost of all our shares. We do this by adding together all the cost bits & pieces for the different lots of shares we've accumulated. Then we divide the aggregate cost figure by the number of shares, to obtain the ACB per share.

if some of those shares were purchased in USD, we need some reasonable system for converting that USD cost into CAD, because our aggregate total cost figure should normally be kept in CAD. The canadian tax authorities receive reports in CAD only.

ok we have averaged the cost. Those US shares got converted into CAD using the bank of canada noon rate as of the date of their purchase & now they're mixed in with all the other shares like gravy.

now we go to sell a few shares. Not all, just some, say 100. This is where that ACB per share will be so handy. Because the cost of those 100 sold will be (ACB x 100.)

cost of remaining holding will be (ACB x number of remaining shares.)


----------



## humble_pie

PatInTheHat said:


> So you are telling me in my USD Margin Questrade account where I have purchased POT from the NYSE in USD$ is still going to pay me a dividend in CAD? :S



the confusion is more likely to manifest in rrsp & registered accounts. In my experience, USD & CAD margin accounts are usually well differentiated, so dividends from interlisted stocks will track to the correct accounts.

however, i do find the bmo investorline system to be fuzzy & unhelpful even for margin accounts. BMO does not show FX transactions when USD dividends are converted into CAD, not even in their flagship USD rrsp account. Admittedly such transactions are not common in rrsp, but they do occur. Clients have no way of knowing that an FX charge was made.


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## londoncalling

It has been a full and interesting day on this forum. I definitely follow your post clearly and easily. My entire position is tax sheltered so ACB for me is more of a self tracking thing. Once the shares are journaled to the same currency it will be easier to determine what my ACB is without having to take off my shoes and socks to do the math. : )

To further murky the water I will add a question. How does journaling work? Is 1 share c$ traded for 1 share US$? Is it taken from the current share price (date of journal) or date of original purchase. Would either of these cases present an opportunity for arbitrage?

Does this not give a chance for the brokerage/arbitragers to milk a few pennies. I may be way out to lunch but I do not completely understand things until I have gone through them.

Cheers


----------



## AltaRed

londoncalling said:


> To further murky the water I will add a question. How does journaling work? Is 1 share c$ traded for 1 share US$? Is it taken from the current share price (date of journal) or date of original purchase. Would either of these cases present an opportunity for arbitrage?
> 
> Does this not give a chance for the brokerage/arbitragers to milk a few pennies. I may be way out to lunch but I do not completely understand things until I have gone through them.
> 
> Cheers


Journalling is simply the movement of X shares from/to CAD/USD accounts.... in terms of volume. So if you bought 100 BCE on NYSE in your USD account, these 100 shares can be journalled over to your CAD account once the purchase is settled. Book value from the broker will likely be converted at their internal forex rate, but that is irrrelevant anyway. Book values provided by your broker in your brokerage account don't mean much. It is your job to keep track of the correct ACB.

Interlisted shares with the same CUSIP number generally trade within a penny or two of the real time forex rate. That happens because the arbitragers are indeed computer buying and selling to make something off spreads that exceed the forex rate. That is good for us retail investors because we can pretty much count on the TSX and NYSE bid prices for an interlisted stock being in sync (in accordance with forex rate of the day).


----------



## Toronto.gal

AltaRed said:


> shares can be journalled over to your CAD account *once the purchase is settled.*


What I had thought as well, however, to simply move your shares, you need not wait for your purchase to settle; you just can't sell them in that period.

I checked my records this a.m. [can go back 13 months with my broker], and saw that I actually had shares journaled the very next day from US to CAD. In my case, it had nothing to do with fees, as the stock in question was a non-dividend payer, so anyone in a hurry to transfer their purchased shares of last Friday, need only wait until Monday instead of the end of the month.


----------



## humble_pie

Toronto.gal said:


> What I had thought as well, however, to simply move your shares, you need not wait for your purchase to settle; you just can't sell them in that period.
> 
> I checked my records this a.m. [can go back 13 months with my broker], and saw that I actually had shares journaled the very next day from US to CAD. In my case, it had nothing to do with fees, as the stock in question was a non-dividend payer, so anyone in a hurry to transfer their purchased shares of last Friday, need only wait until Monday instead of the end of the month.



t.gal here's my take on the above: i feel there's something slightly wrong with a broker who would do that. Most brokers will strictly hold shares in the account where they were purchased until payment has arrived.

that being said, i have no idea what happens with an account that owes deep margin interest. I have no experience whatsoever with this situation. It strikes me that a properly-run brokerage house may have different rules for journalling out shares that are heavily marginned. Certainly, if such shares are moved, they will take their heavy margin positions with them to the new account.

perhaps AltaRed would know more about this issue?

as for selling recently-bought shares within the 3-day settlement period, yes i do believe investor can freely sell these shares. That, after all, is what day-trading is all about. Investor/traders can turn around & sell a recent purchase within seconds.


----------



## AltaRed

Toronto.gal said:


> What I had thought as well, however, to simply move your shares, you need not wait for your purchase to settle; you just can't sell them in that period.
> 
> I checked my records this a.m. [can go back 13 months with my broker], and saw that I actually had shares journaled the very next day from US to CAD.


I suppose it depends on the brokerage. I transfer (journal) over myself once I see the shares in my account.


----------



## humble_pie

i'm thinking this might work out:

- buy POT US 2015 jan 20, which closed at 17.05-17.30. One would do this side first, as it is the more difficult. I believe one might have been able to buy for 17.20 (the intrinsic was 17.15 so 17.20 was pure muscle, no fat)

- sell POT US 2014 jan 40, which closed at 1.50-1.54. Here the spread is so tight that one would not bother fooling around

one would end up the proud owner of an interest in potash for the next 18 months that cost 15.70 per share. One would continue to work down this cost by selling additional calls against the long 2015 position as time passed.

all in all one has a potential 25% capital gain - or greater - over 18 months.

of course there's a risk of loss as well. But one has only 15.70 at stake, not the full 37.15 that potash last traded at on new york.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. I feel there's something *slightly wrong *with a broker who would do that.
> 2. as for selling recently-bought shares within the 3-day settlement period, yes i do believe investor can freely sell these shares. That, after all, is *what day-trading is all about*.


*1.* Don't hate me; I don't make the rules. 
*2.* Of course you can sell in nanoseconds after a purchase [u're telling me?] :biggrin: I meant that you can't have the cash prior to the settlement [didn't explain properly, my bad].


----------



## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> I transfer (journal) over myself once I see the shares in my account.


red how do you manage to journal shares "yourself"?

every broker i've ever heard of requires a phone call to do this. I've never heard of a way to accomplish a transfer online, although such a feature would be very welcome.


----------



## PatInTheHat

One of my friends mentioned holding this in CAD generates a dividend tax credit but I cannot seem to find any information on this. Any happen to have info or verify if he is correct?


----------



## humble_pie

PatInTheHat said:


> One of my friends mentioned holding this in CAD generates a dividend tax credit but I cannot seem to find any information on this. Any happen to have info or verify if he is correct?


potash dividends are eligible canadian dividends, ie they will offer canadian dividend tax credits both when held in CAD account & when held in USD account. 

it is thought - but not confirmed - that there might be problems with the T5s with certain small independent brokers when shares are held in USD. Full details are set forth in post #103 upthread.


----------



## Toronto.gal

PatInTheHat said:


> One of my friends mentioned holding this in CAD generates a dividend tax credit but I cannot seem to find any information on this.


You receive the DTC for dividends from eligible Canadian public corporations. The credit is given simply because corporate taxes would have already been paid prior to the distribution of dividends, another words, from the after-tax profits.

It does not matter if you purchase the stock on the NYSE or TSX, or where you hold them, as buying it/holding them on the former, does not make it a foreign company to a CDN.

*Designation of eligible dividends*
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/bsnss/tpcs/crprtns/dvdnds/dsgntn-eng.html

I'm also interested how AR can journal his own shares.


----------



## gibor365

Just wondering ....for RRSP account better buy stocks like POT (CAN listed, but with div in USD) on TSX or NYSE?


----------



## humble_pie

gibor said:


> Just wondering ....for RRSP account better buy stocks like POT (CAN listed, but with div in USD) on TSX or NYSE?



gibor your rrsp would be at either cibc or tddi or possibly you have one at each, i seem to recall?

both these brokers offer CAD rrsp only. You can only hold potash on CAD side of the account. Both these brokers are going to charge FX on the dividends.

do not DRIP this stock in rrsp. You will end up paying an FX charge not once, but twice, on the same dividend.


----------



## Synergy

gibor said:


> Just wondering ....for RRSP account better buy stocks like POT (CAN listed, but with div in USD) on TSX or NYSE?


I personally would keep stocks like "POT" in a non-registered account - eligible dividends and the ability to journal the shares back and forth. If I had a US RRSP I would hold the stock on the NYSE within this account. This way there's no currency conversion fees on the dividends. I don't think I'd hold stocks like POT within a CDN RRSP if i had the choice.


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## PatInTheHat

This is the wrong place to post this but i'd just like to chime in about how awesome this forum is and how amazingly insightful the posters are. You guys are awesome. Thanks for all the help!


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## humble_pie

pat thank you for catching on.

cmf forum is the only media in the whole of canada where this newly-emerging FX story - with its tinge of scandal - is being systematically dug out.

CanadianCapitalist is also holding up his end of this story, publishing articles from time to time that shine a bright light on how much foreign exchange the brokers are truly charging their clients, while never being transparent or even telling the clients about the fees that they, the clients, are in fact paying.

the story does seem a bit chaotic because that's how all breaking stories unfold. So please do be patient each:


----------



## Beaver101

Synergy said:


> I personally would keep stocks like "POT" in a non-registered account - eligible dividends and the ability to journal the shares back and forth. If I had a US RRSP I would hold the stock on the NYSE within this account. This way there's no currency conversion fees on the dividends. I don't think I'd hold stocks like POT within a CDN RRSP if i had the choice.


 .. just so I'm clear with what you're saying - if one wishes to buy US stocks within an RRSP, he/she should simply open an US $ account within one's RRSP (provided your brokerage allows you) and buy the US stocks on the NYSE (not TSX) to avoid the FX conversion, correct? :smilet-digitalpoint

Of course, one has to have the US $ within one's RRSP to buy the US stocks and that's when the journalling fun begins.


----------



## gibor365

humble_pie said:


> gibor your rrsp would be at either cibc or tddi or possibly you have one at each, i seem to recall?
> 
> both these brokers offer CAD rrsp only. You can only hold potash on CAD side of the account. Both these brokers are going to charge FX on the dividends.
> 
> do not DRIP this stock in rrsp. You will end up paying an FX charge not once, but twice, on the same dividend.


Yes, you are right. I hold SRRSP in TDW and regular RRSP in CIBC. I can buy in on NYSE using US wash in TDW, but don't see any advantage as my dividends will automatically converted to CAD$.
From TSX listed stocks that pay div in $ I hold actually only TRI, and was wondering if I did correct that bought it on TSX.... looks like no difference for me, as I don't have Cash dis. brokarage account


----------



## AltaRed

Toronto.gal said:


> I'm also interested how AR can journal his own shares.


The use of the word journal may not be strictly correct but in my Scotia iTrade cash account (not between accounts of different registrations), I fill out an online form requesting transfer of Y shares of Security X that I own from say my CAD account to my USD account. It is not quite as simple, but same principle, as moving cash between accounts. If I do it before 2pm ET, it happens same business day... after 2pm, the next business day.


----------



## humble_pie

hmmmn there's some confusion over how to make sure those USD dividends from canadian interlisteds get paid in USD.

it's never an issue of where one buys the stocks or even what currency one uses to pay for the purchase.

rather it's an issue of making sure those stocks end up being held in the correct currency side of the account. It's an issue of moving aka journalling the stocks, if necessary, to the correct currency side.

just buying em in USD can sometimes mean the broker mainframe system will lodge em on CAD side of an account anyhow, because CAD is the default locator.

rrsp accounts in particular are notoriously blurred. Investors should open up the holdings (tab, toggle or do whatever it takes) & eyeball where each stock is being held. If shares are not in the desired currency account, client has to pro-actively ask the broker to journal the shares over.

at some brokers, even cash & margin accounts appear intermingled & their currency locators are not obvious. BMO is one of these intermingled brokers. Their cash & margin accounts do not indicate currency in a prominent manner & their dividend payments carry no trace of any FX transaction, even when an FX fee was, in fact, charged.

on the other hand, cash & margin accounts at TDDI are clearly divided between CAD & USD. Clients with USD cash & margin accounts at the big green will receive dividends for all shares in these accounts in USD, sans faute.

to help show why stock exchange of the purchase & currency of the purchase are *not* important, here is a totally absurd example. Suppose our hypothetical investor purchases POT in US dollars in canadian margin account at TDDI. During the buy transaction he receives a warning that the big green is going to convert enough CAD for the purchase into USD. Our hypothetical investor's new potash shares will be bought on new york & will be paid for in USD. He himself will pay an FX charge on the cost of the purchase.

yet - because the shares are being held in CAD account - every subsequent POT dividend that he receives will be charged an FX fee. Which won't be shown on his statements. 

what should he have done? he should have acted pro-actively. He should have contacted the broker as soon as the trade settled & asked for those shares to be journalled to USD account.

even better - much better - he should have used existing CAD to purchase POT in CAD account, or he should have used existing USD to purchase POT in USD account. If the former, he'd have to get the new shares journalled, as stated. But investor should never have paid the broker any FX fee on the cost of the share purchase in the first place.

after a while, when investors gain some experience & become adept at all this, what happens is that investors will buy in USD when they have a surplus of USD & then they move the shares to where they belong if necessary. Or they will buy in CAD when they have a surplus of CAD ... & then they move the shares to where they belong if necessary.

conversely, when it comes time to sell, investors will sell either in USD or in CAD according to which currency it is that they need or wish to acquire.


----------



## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> The use of the word journal may not be strictly correct but in my Scotia iTrade cash account (not between accounts of different registrations), I fill out an online form requesting transfer of Y shares of Security X that I own from say my CAD account to my USD account. It is not quite as simple, but same principle, as moving cash between accounts. If I do it before 2pm ET, it happens same business day... after 2pm, the next business day.


well, an online form is better than having to phone brokers for a journal & having to wait through those interminable automated phone systems.

i'm still surprised brokers would journal before settlement has occurred, though (there are earlier posts about this)

instinctively i'd be wondering about their overnight status reports to the exchanges ... like, what-all has been paid for, what has not been paid for ... if they're moving stuff out that hasn't been paid for, wouldn't overnight reports be too "flou" to satisfy the exchanges?

do these journal out requests also cover journal-to-different-account-with-different-root-account-number?

afaik tddi still sticks to a strict T+3 timetable before journalling can take place ...


----------



## AltaRed

humble_pie said:


> well, an online form is better than having to phone brokers for a journal & having to wait through those interminable automated phone systems.
> 
> i'm still surprised brokers would journal before settlement has occurred, though (there are earlier posts about this)


I have no experience on whether brokers journal before settlement or not. I wait until the purchase settles and then do the online transfer.


----------



## Synergy

Beaver101 said:


> .. just so I'm clear with what you're saying - if one wishes to buy US stocks within an RRSP, he/she should simply open an US $ account within one's RRSP (provided your brokerage allows you) and buy the US stocks on the NYSE (not TSX) to avoid the FX conversion, correct? :smilet-digitalpoint
> 
> Of course, one has to have the US $ within one's RRSP to buy the US stocks and that's when the journalling fun begins.


I was really only referring to CDN stocks that pay out US dividends (like POT). If the stock paid out CDN dividends I would purchase the stock on the TSX within a CDN RRSP. However, my preference would be to purchase stocks that pay eligible canadian dividends within a non-registered account. Those of us that don't have a US RRSP account can still purchase "US stocks" within a CDN RRSP using Gambit trades to avoid the currency conversion fees, etc. It would however be preferred to use a US RRSP account for all US stocks, if possible. You probably already new this, but I just thought I'd clarify. Here's to hoping TDW roles out US RRSP's soon...


----------



## gibor365

Synergy said:


> I was really only referring to CDN stocks that pay out US dividends (like POT). If the stock paid out CDN dividends I would purchase the stock on the TSX within a CDN RRSP. However, my preference would be to purchase stocks that pay eligible canadian dividends within a non-registered account. Those of us that don't have a US RRSP account can still purchase "US stocks" within a CDN RRSP using Gambit trades to avoid the currency conversion fees, etc. It would however be preferred to use a US RRSP account for all US stocks, if possible. You probably already new this, but I just thought I'd clarify. Here's to hoping TDW roles out US RRSP's soon...


But you cannot use gambit trades for dividends.... you can buy it using US MM or CAD$, in both cases you your US dividend will be converted to CAD and if you DRIP - back to USD...
TDW and Investor adge already long time promise US$ RRSP, but still nothing happens


----------



## Synergy

gibor said:


> But you cannot use gambit trades for dividends.... you can buy it using US MM or CAD$, in both cases you your US dividend will be converted to CAD and if you DRIP - back to USD...
> TDW and Investor adge already long time promise US$ RRSP, but still nothing happens


Yes, sorry. I was referring to the stock purchase, not the dividend.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> do these journal out requests also cover *journal-to-different-account*-with-different-root-account-number?


In my personal example, it was simply moving from sub-accounts, ie: from CASH USD TO CASH CAD. 

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that I'm a 'Premium Edge client'. 

I'm surprised at the 'intermingle' that you mentioned; it's not like clients need to be further confused. Proper sub-accounts clearly show where the stocks are listed.


----------



## liquidfinance

Sold some XDV this morning so that I could Open a position in POT. 

I'm going to leave it on the CAD side of my account until the next dividend is paid as for my own curiosity I want to see what forex rate will be applied by Questrade.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Beaver101 said:


> 1. if one wishes to buy US stocks within an RRSP, he/she should simply *open an US $ account* within one's RRSP (provided your brokerage allows you)
> 2. and *buy the US stocks on the NYSE (not TSX) to avoid the FX conversion, *correct?.


*1.* Not a new account, just a sub-account as noted upthread, so you're still working with 1 account #.

*2.* As HP noted, it does *not* matter where you buy, just where you hold them. 

i) if you buy CDN interlisted stocks in CDN RRSP & in CDN funds, you're not paying any conversion on the purchase itself, but you'll pay fx fees on the dividends because the company [POT] pays them in USD.
ii) to avoid the above mentioned fees, you journal the shares to the US sub-account.
iii) if you buy same shares in USD in USD RRSP [where allowed], you're not paying any conversion fees.


----------



## Synergy

Question: I moved some shares of POT over to my US sub-account today and ask the rep at TDW a question- "in the future, 10-15 yrs down the road should I decide to sell POT and want Canadian funds, should I move the shares back over to my CDN sub-account then process a sale"? 

The rep suggested that I keep the shares in the US sub-account, place a sell order on the TSX, dis-regard the fx fee warnings, then call to have the shares moved". He suggested that this would be more efficient. I personally can't see the difference and I feel that there's more chance for error / confusion if I follow the reps suggestion. Thoughts??


----------



## humble_pie

Synergy said:


> Question: I moved some shares of POT over to my US sub-account today and ask the rep at TDW a question- "in the future, 10-15 yrs down the road should I decide to sell POT and want Canadian funds, should I move the shares back over to my CDN sub-account then process a sale"?
> 
> The rep suggested that I keep the shares in the US sub-account, place a sell order on the TSX, dis-regard the fx fee warnings, then call to have the shares moved". He suggested that this would be more efficient. I personally can't see the difference and I feel that there's more chance for error / confusion if I follow the reps suggestion. Thoughts??




synergy - good thinking on your part
i am happy to see that some people are getting it & very well indeed each:

however the rep was wrong imho
so horribly wrong that he is a laughingstock :biggrin:

your web account at the big green will *not* be able to sell your POT shares out of canadian account while the shares are, in fact, held in US account. If you try, you will generate a prompt saying that there are no potash shares (in canadian account) that can be sold. End of story.

it's true that a live representative could sell your shares in canadian account while calling for a journal over of shares from US to CAD to be made in 3 days. But the rep will charge a full rep-handled commish for this sale. This is what happens in gambit trades & what we are discussing at this moment is a gambit-type trade.

the solution for you is to move the shares over to CAD account at least 3 days before making any attempt to sell em out of CAD account, exactly as you had first thought before the rep messed up your brain.

this should work out fine. Moving shares several days ahead of a contemplated sale works fine for me, because i'm not a trader who runs around doing the chicken-with-its-head-off-day-trading shuffle with stocks. I just boogey the decapitated chicken beguine with options but this is ok since i'm allowed to naked-short options wherever i want.

some very, very, very bright manager at TDDI recently opined that their website should be configured so that clients can indicte which currency sub-account they want their interlisted stocks held in, plus clients should be able to send journal orders through the website, as altaRed tells us he can do at scotia itrade.

this is such a good idea - & this manager is so far ahead of his time - that of course the same is never going to happen at the big green. Not in our lifetimes :tongue-new:


----------



## humble_pie

liquidfinance said:


> Sold some XDV this morning so that I could Open a position in POT.
> 
> I'm going to leave it on the CAD side of my account until the next dividend is paid as for my own curiosity I want to see what forex rate will be applied by Questrade.



liquid do u think u could be kind enough to add to the growing cmf data bank on broker specialties & broker idiosyncracies over dividend FXing?

another cmf member has already posted that his POT dividends in rrsp were beautifully converted at questrade. He was given the bank of canada rate on the record day. It is not possible to do any better than that.

what we don't know is what questrade is doing about Potash dividends in non-registered cash or margin accounts. It's a known fact that brokers are talking about favouring rrsp accounts, so it's possible that questrade has its lamborghini rate for rrsps only but a ford model T with FX rates for non-registered accounts.

if your new Potash on CAD side is in non-registered account, could you please keep us posted on what happens to its dividend? all would be grateful.

(aside to avrex) (if he happens to mosey along here) soon, what we will need is for avrex to create one of his magnificent charts showing which broker is doing what & with which accounts ...


----------



## fatcat

i hold POT on the canadian side in a non-registered
if i journal it over to the us side, i still get the canada dividend credit ... have i got that right ?
because i wouldn't mind the funds coming in on the us side and staying there but would like the credit


----------



## Synergy

humble_pie said:


> synergy - good thinking on your part
> the solution for you is to move the shares over to CAD account at least 3 days before making any attempt to sell em out of CAD account, exactly as you had first thought before the rep messed up your brain.


Thanks. Seems quite logical to me. I'm surprised the rep wanted to complicate things and claim increased efficiency! Next time I'll ask / confirm with CMF first...


----------



## Synergy

fatcat said:


> i hold POT on the canadian side in a non-registered
> if i journal it over to the us side, i still get the canada dividend credit ... have i got that right ?
> because i wouldn't mind the funds coming in on the us side and staying there but would like the credit


Yes, the dividends will remain eligible CDN dividends.


----------



## fatcat

Synergy said:


> Yes, the dividends will remain eligible CDN dividends.


thanks ...

i assume then that thomson-reuters would likewise be eligible for the credit ?


----------



## AltaRed

fatcat said:


> i assume then that thomson-reuters would likewise be eligible for the credit ?


It should be that any Cdn interlisted stock traded on the NYSE would get the dividend credit. Cdn taxes were already paid by TR which is what the dividend tax credit is all about. I get the credit for Encana.


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## Toronto.gal

CDN companies purchased in USD/US exchange, don't stop being pure Canadian! 

Therefore:

- dividend tax credit = yes
- withholding taxes = no
- dividend FX fee = no, if declared/payable in USD


----------



## humble_pie

please find below a list of the 18 canadian companies that pay their dividends in USD.

generally speaking, shares in these companies should be held in USD accounts because otherwise the brokers are going to FX the dividends.

the brookfield subsidiaries may be exceptions to this rule.

when shares from these 18 companies are held in US account:

- no US withholding tax

- investor will receive an accurate T5 confirming eligible canadian dividend tax credits. This T5 will be in US dollars, so investor/taxpayer will have to convert the figures into CAD for canadian income tax reporting purposes.

*however* it is rumoured that the small independent brokers *might* have problems issuing these T5s. The big bank-owned brokers will be fine. Clients of small privately-owned brokerages should verify carefully with these brokers (note: be sure to get a rep on the phone who knows what u are talking about.)

_The TSX website is good place to check the currency of the dividend payments. The following Canadian stocks pay dividends in US dollars (the list is courtesy of a Canadian Money Forum member):_

Encana Corp. (ECA)
Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Methanex Corp. (MX)
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)
Goldcorp Inc. (G)
Kinross Gold Corp. (K)
Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI)
IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG)
Inmet Mining Corp. (IMN)
Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI)
Magna International Inc. (MG)
Brookfield Office Properties Inc. (BPO)
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (BAM.A)
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP.UN)
Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (BEP.UN)
WaterFurnace Renewable Energy Inc. (WFI) 

here is Canadian Capitalist's article on hidden FX fees on dividends paid out by these companies:

http://www.moneysense.ca/2012/08/22/canadian-stocks-paying-us-dollar-dividends/


----------



## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> please find below a list of the 18 canadian companies that pay their dividends in USD.
> 
> ..........


thanks pie gal and everyone, i have journaled my POT over to join my TRI ... very helpful ..


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## Beaver101

+1, many thanks to TO.Gal, hp, synergy, CC + participants ... very interesting discussions ... will attempt this journaling business when ready. :encouragement: Not worrying about FX on dividends as not receiving any (yet).


----------



## AltaRed

humble_pie said:


> here is Canadian Capitalist's article on hidden FX fees on dividends paid out by these companies:


To be fair, these fees may, or may not, exist at all brokers. I have checked my Encana dividends in my iTrade account and they have been converted to CAD at exactly the Bank of Canada noon rate on the date the dividend is received. You cannot get any better than that.


----------



## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> To be fair, these fees may, or may not, exist at all brokers. I have checked my Encana dividends in my iTrade account and they have been converted to CAD at exactly the Bank of Canada noon rate on the date the dividend is received. You cannot get any better than that.




these scotia Itrade currency conversions at bank of canada rate are an extremely new phenomenon.

the expert tracker on this issue at scotia Itrade has always been cmf member haroldCrump. From time to time HC has documented how scotia has been stiffing him approximately 1.50% in FX fees on USD dividends, just as have all the other brokers. As recently as may or june 2013, HC was documenting this.

but very recently - only within the past 3 weeks or so - HC has posted how scotia Itrade appears to have suddenly switched to the most favourable FX rate of all, which is the bank of canada rate, which means that no FX fee whatsoever is being charged on those dividends.

you will see these posts if you look at the history of HC's messages.

i am wondering whether your BOC-rate dividend appeared in rrsp or in non-registered account? i inquire because it is said that brokers are favouring rrsp accounts in this first initial wave of fair & transparent dealing regarding FX rates imposed on USD dividends. HC's favourable BOC rate occurred in his rrsp account.

you will note, also, that the CC article i cited dates back to last year, to 2012.

it's because of continual efforts by various bloggistes such as CC & a few forum scrum here in cmf that one or 2 brokers appear to have finally gotten the message. They are finally beginning to mend their ways.


----------



## FrugalTrader

Looks like $POT is down about 15% pre-market...


----------



## humble_pie

now down 24%

from today's G & M:

_" U.S-traded shares of Potash Corp. fell 18.2 per cent before the opening bell and shares of Mosaic Co. tumbled 17.7 per cent after Russia’s Uralkali dismantled one of the world’s largest potash partnerships by pulling out of a venture with its partner in Belarus, a move it expects will cause global prices to plunge by 25 per cent."_

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...unges-as-russia-quits-cartel/article13494636/


----------



## humble_pie

there will be amazing option opportunities today ...

in fact, all this week ...


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## Toronto.gal

"It is as if Saudi Arabia decided to leave OPEC - oil prices would fall immediately......It leaves the Canpotex partnership - which unites Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, Agrium and Mosaic - as the world's largest potash exporter." 

Never a boring day on the markets, nor a lack of opportunities, as in VALUE!


----------



## FrugalTrader

@Humble, can you provide examples?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Agrium is getting hosed too...down about 12% right now >


----------



## humble_pie

FT i posted an example w details upthread, it was a diagonal spread ...

people after all are going to continue to eat


----------



## frank664

Anyone buying Pot today or are you going to wait a few days?


----------



## Beaver101

Time to back up the grocery cart (wished I had a pick up truck though) ... :biggrin:


----------



## Synergy

Looks like I'll be adding to my position today, and more later this week if shares continue to plunge...


----------



## liquidfinance

Well this is a bit depressing after opening a position yesterday. I was so happy with my 2% gain by the end of the day as well. :hopelessness:


----------



## HaroldCrump

It's not _that_ bad (yet)...POT is $30.20 and AGU is $86.74
Good buying opportunity for POT no doubt, although I won't call it is firesale either.


----------



## frank664

Picked up 190 shares at 30.01 this morning after picking up 50 at 37.80 a few days ago. Still have a cost basis of 38.30. But it is better than what it was.


----------



## liquidfinance

I'm going to see how it goes for a few days before adding. It doesn't help that I don't have new cash to add and would need to sell another holding to fund this. 

From reading the headlines it seems to be a drastic overreaction.


----------



## CadMan

Just added to my position at $30. Seems like the market is overreacting and is a good buying opportunity.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Just bought 500 shares.


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## Toronto.gal

At least it will be a very good DRIP next week, unless there would be a sudden reversal. 

Talk about volatility!


----------



## blin10

added at 30 as well, but it might deep lower


----------



## OptsyEagle

Would anyone be able to explain to me the fundamental difference between a "cartel" and the illegal anti-trade activity of companies in a particular industry getting together to manipulate the market price of their products?

Was not what Archer Daniels Midland did with it's competitors to fix the price of Lysene, not just a cartel?

This stuff really bugs me. There are children starving in this world, where a little lower price fertilizer could make a big difference and you find out this stuff is going on ...and no one gets taken away in handcuffs. Bogles the mind.


----------



## humble_pie

guys don't buy now, save your kneesjerks for some real deep knee bends


----------



## blin10

humble_pie said:


> guys don't buy now, save your kneesjerks for some real deep knee bends


ya don't put all your savings in it, but getting some position is fair


----------



## doctrine

It's still above '08 crisis lows (which hit $22), so it's not a once-in-a-lifetime-deal, but it certainly seems like a good opportunity if you like this company. I don't own any shares though and I already made my buys this month. Interesting move, though. Good to see some people with cash diving in quickly!


----------



## Jon_Snow

humble_pie said:


> guys don't buy now, save your kneesjerks for some real deep knee bends


Down 23% in one day is enough of a knee bend for me to buy some.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Jon_Snow said:


> Down 23% in one day is enough of a knee bend for me to buy some.


:biggrin:

Sometimes, if it weren't for those 'knee bends', many of us would be within the comfortable & often wise 5%, or lower.


----------



## blin10

moving up a bit


----------



## Synergy

humble_pie said:


> guys don't buy now, save your kneesjerks for some real deep knee bends


I agree. Be careful with this one. It may go lower. I wouldn't back up the truck but adding a little or starting a new position would be fine...


----------



## Greyhound86

OptsyEagle said:


> Would anyone be able to explain to me the fundamental difference between a "cartel" and the illegal anti-trade activity of companies in a particular industry getting together to manipulate the market price of their products?
> 
> Was not what Archer Daniels Midland did with it's competitors to fix the price of Lysene, not just a cartel?
> 
> This stuff really bugs me. There are children starving in this world, where a little lower price fertilizer could make a big difference and you find out this stuff is going on ...and no one gets taken away in handcuffs. Bogles the mind.


I have also been mystified why over the years they were able to get away with the cartel setting the price.

Now that the cartel may be broken and once the dust settles, the best of the potash miners could be a buy.

Having the threat of the breakup of the cartel hanging over the stocks has made me a bit nervous buying shares in the past.


----------



## mrPPincer

I may have missed the boat with this one too as I did with the telecoms.
My bid is 29.9 for 200 shares, now watch it crawl back up and leave me behind 
Price is 30.7 atm


----------



## blin10

mrPPincer said:


> I may have missed the boat with this one too as I did with the telecoms.
> My bid is 29.9 for 200 shares, now watch it crawl back up and leave me behind
> Price is 30.7 atm


it's still down 20% lol


----------



## gibor365

Just opened new position in POT , bought 60 shares at $30.16. Just heard this new on 680news while driving to work and this trade was first action when arrived  
Don't trust too much into this Belorussian competitors....maybe it's all bluff?!

P.S. Good thing my limit buy didn't get executed 2 day ago


----------



## gibor365

I like current yield at 4.6636


----------



## blin10

weird that pot down 20% and agu only 5%...


----------



## HaroldCrump

blin10 said:


> weird that pot down 20% and agu only 5%...


AGU is not a specialist potash producer. POT is. AGU has several other lines of business.


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> AGU is not a specialist potash producer. POT is. AGU has several other lines of business.


Also reason why the stock [AGU] performed better YTD [& prior] than POT.


----------



## blin10

HaroldCrump said:


> AGU is not a specialist potash producer. POT is. AGU has several other lines of business.


i know, but that's a huge gap even with that...


----------



## thompsg4416

Black Tuesday anyone?? Geeish what a bad week for me.

First RIO puts the expansion to the OT mine in Mongolia on hold causing my TRQ position to drop close to 15%. Now today my POT position dropped 20%... TRQ was somewhat to be expected give the nature of the investment.. this one not so much... It with BCE was supposed to be my stable core. Ahem now I may have to sell some BCE and pick up some POT to DCA. I'll likely wait a day or 2 and let the dust settle on this one.


----------



## andrewf

Taking concentrated positions in a handful of companies exposes you to idiosyncratic risks like this. You're hoping that the upside surprises outweigh the downside ones.


----------



## james4beach

Oh geez look at POT -20% today ! I was wondering why XMA (materials index) was down a whopping -4.4% today

Ouch. No POT exposure myself, but wow.

The technical analysis continues to say that POT and XMA look weak


----------



## james4beach

Also I strongly recommend that every investor learns basic technical analysis. It's very useful to know how to distinguish a strong chart from a weak one. I think the best practice is to only buy stocks with strong charts, no matter how great the fundamentals.


----------



## fatcat

james4beach said:


> Also I strongly recommend that every investor learns basic technical analysis. It's very useful to know how to distinguish a strong chart from a weak one. I think the best practice is to only buy stocks with strong charts, no matter how great the fundamentals.


point me to 3 pieces of research by respected institutions and researchers that demonstrate that technical analysis is any better than trading using say, astrology ... just 3 studies ... i've never seen any


----------



## james4beach

I don't have any at my finger tips and maybe I'm just fooling myself. But it feels to me like I can spot a weak chart and I feel like it's kept me out of trouble. Again I realize I could just be fooling myself.


----------



## AltaRed

humble_pie said:


> i am wondering whether your BOC-rate dividend appeared in rrsp or in non-registered account? i inquire because it is said that brokers are favouring rrsp accounts in this first initial wave of fair & transparent dealing regarding FX rates imposed on USD dividends. HC's favourable BOC rate occurred in his rrsp account.


My taxable (cash) account. It might have something to do with being an iTrade Premium client.


----------



## dubmac

james4beach said:


> Also I strongly recommend that every investor learns basic technical analysis. It's very useful to know how to distinguish a strong chart from a weak one. I think the best practice is to only buy stocks with strong charts, no matter how great the fundamentals.


being knowledgebale in tech analysis is probably a good skill - but I'm not sure it applies in this case. How could tech analysis have predicted that the Russian company, Uralkali, would renege on it's participation in the Potash cartel, and flip the entire industry it's head? This seems to be a change in the company leadership and board rooms that determine share prices rather than company balance sheets, and technical information therein. That said, I think tech analysis has a place and I'd like to know more about it.

BTW - I place a small order for POT on this drop. The price was in the 30.80 range, I put a market order in and expected a price near 30.80, but the trade settled for 31 (despite no bid/sell orders in that range) Does anyone know why my buy order was (much) higher than the range quoted at the time of purchase?


----------



## fatcat

james4beach said:


> I don't have any at my finger tips and maybe I'm just fooling myself. But it feels to me like I can spot a weak chart and I feel like it's kept me out of trouble. Again I realize I could just be fooling myself.


fair enough ... how could you be in trouble in the first place if you are buying government bonds ? 

the globe has an article that says we (POT holders) should have seen this coming ... perhaps

i bought it knowing it is a commodity and thus will likely be anything but smooth and steady, but for a long term hold i think it will prove to be ok 

like so many things, we are waiting for the chinese and indians to grow their middle class


----------



## james4beach

dotnet_nerd said:


> T/A can be useful if all other factors remain equal. But other factors are not equal, the recent POT news is a game-changer throwing technical analysis out the window in this case.


I don't know. I think you're under estimating what T/A shows you... yes it's partially self fulfilling, but technical readings are linked to fundamentals too. For instance the weakness in the commodities market was very visible in POT and weakness in commodities relates to why a Russian competitor may want to sell more product before prices drop further.

Let's look at the T/A leading up to today's crash. Here is the chart with today excluded, this was what you would see looking at the chart yesterday
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=POT.TO&p=D&st=2011-07-30&en=2013-07-29&id=p02111099354

This is undeniably a *weak* chart. It has so many classic weak T/A elements.
- trending down
- lower lows
- staying below its 200 day moving average
- failure to rally above its 200 day avg several times


----------



## james4beach

dubmac said:


> being knowledgebale in tech analysis is probably a good skill - but I'm not sure it applies in this case. How could tech analysis have predicted that the Russian company, Uralkali, would renege on it's participation in the Potash cartel, and flip the entire industry it's head?


Check out my last post with the link to the stock chart.

It was a weak chart, for quite a while, just like everything in this space. The T/A did give you warning that this was a weak stock.


----------



## dubmac

james4beach said:


> Check out my last post with the link to the stock chart.
> 
> It was a weak chart, for quite a while, just like everything in this space. The T/A did give you warning that this was a weak stock.


James - I suspect your skills and intuition are quite good in the area of T/A. I have read your posts and have gained some valuable insights and I look forward to your posts. Aside from some basic information on volumes, and 50, 200 DMA's etc, my background in T/A is weak! So I cannot offer much debate here. I agree that the chart is weak, but I am skeptical on whether T/A can predict big moves like the one we've witnessed. In other words, I agree the chart is weak (it has been down and dropping precipitously lately), but -20% in one day is an unlikely drop that T/A can foresee.


BTW - here is an interesting link on POT and the potential consequences thererin - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...signal-end-of-bhp-s-15-billion-mine-plan.html note the reference to the BHP project as being in jeopardy.


----------



## james4beach

fatcat said:


> fair enough ... how could you be in trouble in the first place if you are buying government bonds ?
> 
> the globe has an article that says we (POT holders) should have seen this coming ... perhaps


Well agreed, I'm not in trouble personally, but I'm a potential buyer of XMA and am just waiting... would love to see strength return to commodities.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it was possible to see this specific event coming. I'm just saying that the sector has been weak for a while, unfortunately, and this stock was also weak. That's not a direct prediction of today's event, but bad things tend to happen more often to already weak sectors and I think it still traces back to fundamentals.

Think of the financial sector in 2007-2008 for example. So many bank stocks were trending down and became horrible technical pictures in 2007. This wasn't because they were broke (yet) but because their business was deteriorating. It made them increasingly vulnerable. I think T/A did a good job of predicting the bloodbath in financials, back in 2008.


----------



## daddybigbucks

james4beach said:


> Check out my last post with the link to the stock chart.
> 
> It was a weak chart, for quite a while, just like everything in this space. The T/A did give you warning that this was a weak stock.


hindsight is always 20/20

i see T/a on the forums all the time and only reason why it works is because stocks go up 60% of the time.
Anything that makes you hold longer to good stock is a good thing.


----------



## james4beach

dubmac said:


> In other words, I agree the chart is weak (it has been down and dropping precipitously lately), but -20% in one day is an unlikely drop that T/A can foresee.


OK we're in total agreement here. That's the way I see it too.

All I was commenting on was the general weakness of POT & the sector.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Speaking of weak charts, how about all the ones that turned around big time? Did you capture any of those?


----------



## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> My taxable (cash) account. It might have something to do with being an iTrade Premium client.


thankx! every little bit of data helps to paint the bigger picture.

as with gambitting when we started out posting about gambitting 3 long years ago, each & every broker is going to have niggly little differences about the way it FXes dividends. What works at one broker is not going to work at another broker; what works in rrsp is not going to work in cash/margin, etc.

for gambitting, several cmf members worked slowly & surely to build up a data base of which brokers required what in the way of online/phone orders, so as to get the paired currency arbitrage trades done lickety-split.

we're only now just starting out with respect to the 18 canadian companies that pay dividends in USD. Many brokers have been charging FX on those dividends - in all accounts including cash, margin & rrsp - for years now, without ever telling the clients.

it's beyond great to know that scotia ITrade may have commenced paying those dividends converted at bank of canada rates! assuming that questrade is doing this also, these 2 brokers are going to become the standard-bearers for the entire brokerage community! what a breakthrough!

another serious issue does remain. This is the double FX fee charged on market US DRIPs when these are paid into rrsp. At the non-USD rrsp brokers.


----------



## fatcat

james4beach said:


> Well agreed, I'm not in trouble personally, but I'm a potential buyer of XMA and am just waiting... would love to see strength return to commodities.
> 
> Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it was possible to see this specific event coming. I'm just saying that the sector has been weak for a while, unfortunately, and this stock was also weak. That's not a direct prediction of today's event, *but bad things tend to happen more often to already weak sectors and I think it still traces back to fundamentals.*
> 
> Think of the financial sector in 2007-2008 for example. So many bank stocks were trending down and became horrible technical pictures in 2007. This wasn't because they were broke (yet) but because their business was deteriorating. It made them increasingly vulnerable. I think T/A did a good job of predicting the bloodbath in financials, back in 2008.


well yes and i have found that lousy stocks that report lousy earnings often experience "bad things" too ..

one didn't need TA to see that banks were heavily exposed to an about-to-tip-over housing market james

it's worth noting that saturn is transiting through scorpio and as of today sits in opposition to the 2nd house, taurus which is the house of money
this is not an auspicious time for *any* kind of trading

we would all be well advised to just sit this one out until saturn is out of scorpio


----------



## james4beach

Toronto.gal said:


> Speaking of weak charts, how about all the ones that turned around big time? Did you capture any of those?


I didn't myself, but I'm not in the game of catching bottoms. As I understand it others are and I think they do use charts to help spot a turnaround.


----------



## Toronto.gal

*J4B:* my point was that since you're good with TA {& other stuff}, that you should be using it to your advantage, but it does not seem that you do.

*Dubmac:* BHP's CEO had mentioned those doubts a few times.


----------



## james4beach

Toronto.gal said:


> *J4B:* my point was that since you're good with TA {& other stuff}, that you should be using it to your advantage, but it does not seem that you do.


I see what you're saying. Practice what you preach.

But I really don't trade stocks too often. I'm a bond & fixed income guy. I also don't have spare money to speculate with in stocks. I wish I did... and if I had the gambling money available, I would be using charts to assist me in speculation.


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> I didn't myself, but I'm not in the game of catching bottoms. As I understand it others are and I think they do use charts to help spot a turnaround.


james4 from time to time you mention that you are a "frequent" short artist. Just a few days ago you were saying how you "frequently" short stocks over at Interactive Brokers.

you also like to tell us how your best trade of all time has been shorting XIU. Meanwhile solemnly advising cmfers & others including paying clients to buy XIU as their principal equity exposure (oh dear, this does not sound good.)

so as a short artist, how could you possibly *not* be in the game of catching bottoms. Surely your life would depend upon this skill, would it not ...


----------



## Greyhound86

Well, I bought 500 shares @$30.00 and sold them when they hit $31.80 a few hours later.

Not terribly comfortable with the outlook for the commodity potash.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Hanging on to my 500 for now...


----------



## cainvest

james4beach said:


> I think the best practice is to only buy stocks with strong charts, no matter how great the fundamentals.


TA (chart based) for short term trading, fundamentals/sector knowledge for long term investing ... that's the way I've always looked at it.

Not sure myself where POT is going, possible to make a short term gain here with such a drop. On the long side, it really depends on where the global market price ends up with the cartel issue and then there's also BHP.


----------



## james4beach

humble_pie said:


> james4 from time to time you mention that you are a "frequent" short artist. Just a few days ago you were saying how you "frequently" short stocks over at Interactive Brokers.


What I've told you is that I have an Interactive Brokers account, and I have lots of experience short selling stocks. It's been several years since I had the time & money to engage in that kind of speculative trading in any serious way. I was heavily trading during 2005-2009 but eased off it since. My last XIU short, I covered 2013-03-05 for a slight profit (stopped out). Even that was a tiny position... like I said, I don't have the gambling money available to do this.



> so as a short artist, how could you possibly *not* be in the game of catching bottoms. Surely your life would depend upon this skill, would it not ...


Nope. When short selling, you're not trying to catch bottoms. You're trying to cover at a low price but you don't care if it's the bottom. The strategy is to cover on weakness. There's a big difference between a low price = a good day to cover on weakness, versus a good price for a bull to come and BUY at. In the buying scenario you need a turnaround story and a chart that has become strong; that's very different.

Most often you cover a successful short position, and the stock keeps crashing. I mean think of the opposite, when you go long a stock successfully. Same thing... you're not getting out right at the top. You're trying to capture the meat of the stock rally. So same with shorting... you're trying to capture the meat of the decline.

This is why catching a turnaround story is not in my skill set. I didn't have to care about that when shorting. I'll give you an example from one of my greatest shorts, Indymac Bank. I shorted it in October 2007. I covered and closed the short in March 2008 because I was happy with the 75% profit and the stock was falling sharply that day. A beautiful short covering point by any measure. But note that point, March 2008, is still a horrible price for a buyer to come in at. After I covered, the price kept dropping and the bank failed four months later.

When I cover a short like that, I don't think to myself -- hey this thing has turned around and I'd love to buy it here as a long position. Instead I'm saying, I've made enough money here and I'll take profits here and close my short exposure.



> you also like to tell us how your best trade of all time has been shorting XIU. Meanwhile solemnly advising cmfers & others including paying clients to buy XIU as their principal equity exposure (oh dear, this does not sound good.)


Short positions are brief positions, a few months or maybe a year at most. I do this while acknowledging it's short term speculation.

CMF'ers and my clients, on the other hand, come here asking what is a good long term holding and core portfolio position. We're talking 10 years minimum, and more like 20+ years holding times. And for them I say that XIU or ZCN is about the best.


----------



## james4beach

In fact POT is probably a good illustration of what I describe above with catching the bottom.

Hypothetically, if was had been short POT, I probably would want to buy to cover today. It's a surprise move, lots of profit for the short seller, and it's always nice to buy into weakness (just like it's nice to sell into strength).

But just because it's a good day to cover a POT short, doesn't make it a good time to go long! It's still a weak chart with high likelihood of further declines. Covering a short is not the same thing as deciding a stock has finally turned around.


----------



## humble_pie

to me, a frequent short artist who says - in the present tense - "I frequently short stocks" is exactly what he says.

he's a frequent short artist who frequently shorts stocks. Meanwhile bashing stock markets on a near-daily basis.





james4beach said:


> With short selling you have to realize that to short a stock, you need to borrow the shares. So this is only possible if the broker has the shares available to borrow ...
> 
> *I've been relatively happy with Interactive Brokers. I frequently short stocks there*, and they even have a nice web-based tool where you can inquire whether a stock is available to short (it also tells you the interest rate, as you have to pay to borrow shares... this is a cost that is often overlooked by short sellers). *I have never had problems shorting large liquid stocks*, but as I said, penny stocks are a different matter.


----------



## humble_pie

got my diagonal spreads, 10 of em

long 10 pot 20s of jan 2015
shrt 10 pot 35s of jan 2014

cost 9.14
gain is presently capped at 15 but this could change


----------



## gibor365

"Potash Corp (NYSEOT) was downgraded by analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating. They now have a $36.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $46.00. 5.0% Downside." 
Another downgrades to Market Perform or Neutral ...


----------



## Jon_Snow

I'd be thrilled with $36, seeing I got it for $29 this morning.


----------



## james4beach

humble_pie said:


> to me, a frequent short artist who says - in the present tense - "I frequently short stocks" is exactly what he says.
> 
> he's a frequent short artist who frequently shorts stocks. Meanwhile bashing stock markets on a near-daily basis.


I dunno what to tell you. In my decade or so in stocks, I have frequently shorted stocks. I used to do it seriously 2005-2009 but since then do trivially small amounts, for instance my recent XIU short. No current shorts.


----------



## dubmac

I'm curious to know what the T/A on the TSX Composite Index would be? I mean, if one can establish market buy, hold or sell on a stock like POT (for the most part using 50 and 200 DMA's), then what trends or predictive measures can be learned from the larger trend in the market? Maybe, however, I should ask this under a new thread.


----------



## james4beach

Yeah maybe a new T/A topic would be best. My reading on the TSX is somewhat neutral, not particularly bullish or bearish. Certain sectors like miners and materials though (of which POT is a big part) look very bearish to me though.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Jon_Snow said:


> got it for $29 this morning.


You do have a talent [patience] for catching the bottom [with gold exceptions]. :wink:

POT was the winner closing at -16%, while others like ICL/MOS/SQM, all ended above -17%. :02.47-tranquillity:


----------



## sylyconvalley

this thread is fascinating.
specially the TA analysis part.delightful.
anyway.
congrats to the door crashers.
a fukushima in the potash world.
I just have a question.
today was "the" bottom like BB?
if one could kindly answer I would appreciate it.
thks


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> You do have a talent [patience] for catching the bottom [with gold exceptions]. :wink:
> 
> POT was the winner closing at -16%, while others like ICL/MOS/SQM, all ended above -17%. :02.47-tranquillity:


Not exactly  I remember he sold his Goldcorp at the top.... too bad I didn't do the same


----------



## Jon_Snow

Oh yes, did well selling Goldcorp - then I bought Iamgold at around $11. :rolleyes2:


----------



## Dibs

sylyconvalley said:


> [...]
> congrats to the door crashers.
> a fukushima in the potash world.
> I just have a question.
> today was "the" bottom like BB?
> if one could kindly answer I would appreciate it.
> thks


If you want to compare this to fukushima, then look at the progression of Cameco after the disaster. It was down from $40 to $28 after a week, but only bottomed out at $17 six months later.


----------



## sylyconvalley

Dibs.
I meant it as an example .
like a meltdown.
that is all.
U think the bottom was not today?
maybe a couple of months from now then?
thanks.


----------



## sylyconvalley

james4beach said:


> I don't know. I think you're under estimating what T/A shows you... yes it's partially self fulfilling, but technical readings are linked to fundamentals too. For instance the weakness in the commodities market was very visible in POT and weakness in commodities relates to why a Russian competitor may want to sell more product before prices drop further.
> 
> Let's look at the T/A leading up to today's crash. Here is the chart with today excluded, this was what you would see looking at the chart yesterday
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=POT.TO&p=D&st=2011-07-30&en=2013-07-29&id=p02111099354
> 
> This is undeniably a *weak* chart. It has so many classic weak T/A elements.
> - trending down
> - lower lows
> - staying below its 200 day moving average
> - failure to rally above its 200 day avg several times


James 4 beach.
is this an example of buy in strength?
thks


----------



## Greyhound86

sylyconvalley said:


> Dibs.
> I meant it as an example .
> like a meltdown.
> that is all.
> U think the bottom was not today?
> maybe a couple of months from now then?
> thanks.


No one knows. No one.

The Russian potash company may be serious or it may just be the opening move in some complicated plan they have to get a bigger share of the potash market from their partner, the Belorussian potash company, while they still work together in their cartel or marketing company.


----------



## sylyconvalley

thank you for the answer Greyhound.
It should not be a buy and hold stock right?


----------



## Potato

dubmac said:


> BTW - I place a small order for POT on this drop. The price was in the 30.80 range, I put a market order in and expected a price near 30.80, but the trade settled for 31 (despite no bid/sell orders in that range) Does anyone know why my buy order was (much) higher than the range quoted at the time of purchase?


You say it was a small order -- was it an odd lot?


----------



## londoncalling

londoncalling said:


> I almost doubled my position this morning at 36.50. :love-struck: This is the 3rd time I have bought. First time in C$. The next two purchases in US$ for the reason mentioned by Advisor above. When I decide to sell I will unload the Canadian version which sadly is the highest of my share purchases.


Do I know how to time the market or what? :stupid: 5 days ago I thought I got in at a great price. Today not so much :biggrin:

Considered selling another holding to take advantage of the sell off but sat on my trigger finger. I need to maintain some control over my asset allocation. If the news is true and they leave the cartel and potash market prices drop I will likely have several more chances before year end. If it turns out to be a bluff prices should return over time. May have missed a huge buying opportunity, may have not missed it yet. 


Don't take life too seriously , you'll never get out alive.


----------



## sylyconvalley

in times like this i like to look at options.
today i see a buyer of approximately 10k cal contracts (Sept /13) that had no OI ( zero Open interest) , which in turn means to me that a new position was opened for the option buyer.
the strike price is 32 bux .
premium paid was (last) 1.69 ( ballsy writer).
on the other hand I see approximately 11.6k puts at a strike price of 35 bux.
premium paid (last) 4 bux.
can someone clarify this for me?
thank you


----------



## leeder

If only I have a crystal ball when I decided to buy it at around $37.90...

That said, I have a feeling there might be some downside left. If potash prices do go down to $300 like some analysts/reports suggest due to increased competition and the existing oversupply in the world and remain there for an extended period, Potash stock price will trade in the $28-$32 range based on historical data. At this point, I think I'm going to take a wait and see approach rather than jump in while there's blood on the streets.


----------



## gibor365

Jon_Snow said:


> Oh yes, did well selling Goldcorp - then I bought Iamgold at around $11. :rolleyes2:


Do you still hold it?


----------



## Toronto.gal

sylyconvalley said:


> 1. congrats to the door crashers.
> 2. today was "the" bottom?


*1.* And with no lineups, LOL. 

*2.* We're talking about a key and totally unexpected development here, or shall we call it a bombshell instead? So the answer won't be a quick one. 

If, as Uralkali's CEO has said, prices will fall below $300 this year as a result of the break-up, and the cost for us here to mine it, is around $100, it will be painful. Here I was, prior to yesterday, thinking that those long contract delays with India and China, were going to be resolved this year. Anyway, POT is a stock for me for 20+ years, by which time, population growth is projected to increase from the current 7 billion+ to around 9 billion, if we don't destroy our planet first.

I do think *gibor* may have made a good point: 'Don't trust too much into this Belorussian competitors.'

Stock is currently down -2% from yesterday's close.

Uralkali's Vladislav:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/ural...le-wHPong0oTW~QaFiEDzt0jA.html?cmpid=msnmoney


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> I remember he sold his Goldcorp at the top....


I wasn't talking about selling, but about buying, and JS, more often than not, picks great entry prices, hence higher # of shares & his dividend payments keep increasing!


----------



## Jon_Snow

This tends to be my investing style. When BCE plummeted based on Verizon's entry into Canada, I immediately loaded up. I have a lot of patience and idle cash (though much less than i am used to) to wait for these sales


----------



## Greyhound86

If you can put faith in what these guys have to say (they might be buying like crazy in their own account)

"Goldman cuts Potash and Mosaic to Neutral, Intrepid Potash to Sell • 8:58 AM

Goldman Sachs downgrades Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) to Neutral with respective price targets of $24 and $35, and cuts Intrepid Potash (IPI) to Sell with a $9 target in the wake of the breakup of the Russian potash cartel.

The firm estimates POT's marginal cash cost of production at ~$300/metric ton, 30% below recent spot prices, which it believes is now likely to be seen by year-end.

Valuation support remains limited, the firm says, with global mining peers trading at 5.5-6x EV/EBITDA still suggesting 30%-plus downside potential for the group.
POT -1.8%, MOS -1.9%, IPI -2.1% premarket."


----------



## gibor365

All this noise about potash producers/prices reminds me some gambit in the chess game.... and both Russia and Belarus have a lot of grandmaster  The point is that lower potash prices will hit everyone even if someone drastically increase production....


----------



## gibor365

Greyhound86 said:


> "Goldman cuts Potash and Mosaic to Neutral, Intrepid Potash to Sell • 8:58 AM


I'm just wondering ....in case and in couple of days the "catrel" sign new agreement, all target proces will be changes back?!


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> and both Russia and Belarus have a lot of grandmaster


LOL. 

These GMs are getting younger & younger! Did you hear about the 9 year old Carissa Yip?


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> LOL.
> 
> These GMs are getting younger & younger! Did you hear about the 9 year old Carissa Yip?


Not yet  but both Putin and Lukashenko big funs of sport and probably chess...
there a lot of GM in Belarus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Belarusian_chess_players even though majority of them not exactly belorussians  and much more in Russia


----------



## daddybigbucks

first off i don't know much about potash so take my analysis with a grain of salt.
I'm trying to see if the POT will go lower though.

Financially, they are saying with russian competition that Potash prices may drop to $300/?. In the last 5 years, potash prices have hit $300 once on april 2010.
At that time, POT hit bottomed out at $30.
So it seems $30 is the bottom considering the news. I think it will hover here for a while, so i will watch this quite closely and anything under ~$28 should be a huge buy.
Disclaimer: i own POT and AGU already but always looking for a deal.


----------



## fatcat

this was a very good article: http://business.financialpost.com/2013/07/30/potash-uralkali-prices/

this might lead to an advantage for POT since they are a big player and can produce more cheaply



> Cost control will become more important than ever as prices decline. Uralkali has a big advantage, as its stated cash costs are only about US$65 a tonne. The big North American producers also have competitive costs, though they are above US$100 a tonne. While these companies may have lower earnings in a lower-price environment, they can also produce at higher capacity and sell greater volumes (especially Uralkali and Potash Corp., which have the most spare capacity).


it could also be a bluff by the russians

it might shake out the small players and lead to consolidation


----------



## blin10

on NYSE side, POT has very heavy support around 28.5, I don't see it chewing through that, it might dip below it for a very brief time though


----------



## Barwelle

I'm seeing some conflicting info here, anyone know what's going on or am I missing something?



Greyhound86 said:


> Goldman Sachs [...] estimates POT's marginal cash cost of production at ~$300/metric ton, 30% below recent spot prices, which it believes is now likely to be seen by year-end.





fatcat said:


> this was a very good article: http://business.financialpost.com/2013/07/30/potash-uralkali-prices/
> 
> _The big North American producers also have competitive costs, though they are above US$100 a tonne._


----------



## AltaRed

Both can be correct though are most likely not correct given the vast difference in the numbers. The difference is in the choice of words, i.e. marginal cost of an incremental tonne vs average cost of current tonnage. Go to the annual statement, or most recent quarterly results, to calculate average production costs yourself.


----------



## blin10

wow, what a dive at the end


----------



## mrPPincer

I'm in for the ride @29.95 + $9.99 trading fees for 200 shares, 1 cent less than 6K 
Nice round number of shares to do some options trading with in the US market down the road if I chose to later on.


----------



## Ag Driver

I wanted to get in today for an additional 38 shares to make a round 50, but I held off. I'll take a look again tomorrow.


----------



## gibor365

blin10 said:


> wow, what a dive at the end


any additional "news"?!


----------



## blin10

gibor said:


> any additional "news"?!


no news, it'll be volatile for a while from here...


----------



## liquidfinance

I guess this price drop is good for the share buy back. I was looking for this to be a long trade although going to try and trade it a little. Now it seems it will just be a Buy, Hold and :hopelessness: 

It's like BP revisited :frown:


----------



## leeder

I'm interested to know if there are any sectors that may benefit from a lower potash price. Would companies that sell agricultural machineries benefit? After all, weaker prices benefit farmers, right? Of course, that's assuming seasonal factors (weather) don't spoil farming activities .

As for Potash Corp, I'm convinced there is some downside remaining. I'm not in a hurry to add to my existing position. In my opinion, even with the prices this depressed for Potash Corp, Agrium might be the better buy. I think Agrium is not as exposed to the commodity directly and there are more parts to the business than Potash Corp.


----------



## doctrine

Farmers benefit, but there's not much out there on the public markets for farming, and I'd suggest that would not be an industry that anyone wants to be in. Almost as bad as airlines.


----------



## cainvest

I'd keep an eye on BHP, if they're not seeing potential profits to move ahead that might not look good for POT.


----------



## londoncalling

I own Ag Growth International (AFN.TO). It has been up each day since the announcement. Most of this I attribute to better prospects for corn crops this year. However, the possibility of lower fertilizer cost input can't hurt.


----------



## londoncalling

cainvest said:


> I'd keep an eye on BHP, if they're not seeing potential profits to move ahead that might not look good for POT.


 By the time the Jansen mine is operational the recent news will be almost forgotten. If BHP mothballs the mine, it may have a short term effect but longer term it still leaves POT with the largest potash mine in the province and one less competitor. Still deciding if I want more shares. I think I got time.

EDIT: the problem with commodity producers is that they begin construction and expansion when the commodity price is high. Being so cyclical by the time they come online the price is nowhere near where it was when they started.


----------



## cainvest

I guess with BHP it can be viewed a few different ways, if they keep going ahead they must be seeing a certain level of profits in the future. Now that means their guessing the prices will remain high enough for them to continue and on the flip side it would cut into POT market. If they decide not to move forward, as in they believe the potash prices will remain low, that is showing some outlook for lower future POT earnings.


----------



## Barwelle

doctrine said:


> I'd suggest that would not be an industry that anyone wants to be in. Almost as bad as airlines.


I guess I'm not just anyone :biggrin:


----------



## londoncalling

+1 . John Deere is in the ag sector and it would seem to be a better play than many others out there


----------



## james4beach

sylyconvalley said:


> James 4 beach.
> is this an example of buy in strength?
> thks


Hi, regarding the GDOT chart you posted. Yes I would say that looks technically strong. An uptrending rally, certainly. You usually wouldn't want to buy so high above the 50 day moving average though.

The real question if you get into something like that is, what is your exit strategy? That's the tricky part


----------



## sylyconvalley

thank you very much james 4 beach.
i will take ur advice:adoration:


----------



## sylyconvalley

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* And with no lineups, LOL.
> 
> *2.* We're talking about a key and totally unexpected development here, or shall we call it a bombshell instead? So the answer won't be a quick one.
> 
> If, as Uralkali's CEO has said, prices will fall below $300 this year as a result of the break-up, and the cost for us here to mine it, is around $100, it will be painful. Here I was, prior to yesterday, thinking that those long contract delays with India and China, were going to be resolved this year. Anyway, POT is a stock for me for 20+ years, by which time, population growth is projected to increase from the current 7 billion+ to around 9 billion, if we don't destroy our planet first.
> 
> I do think *gibor* may have made a good point: 'Don't trust too much into this Belorussian competitors.'
> 
> Stock is currently down -2% from yesterday's close.
> 
> Uralkali's Vladislav:
> http://www.bloomberg.com/video/ural...le-wHPong0oTW~QaFiEDzt0jA.html?cmpid=msnmoney


in 20 years i will probably leave my shares for my grandchildren.... nevertheless ur idea is a good one.
in the meantime If one is in for the quick buck get ready to be snuffed.
ur either take the money and run .
or buy and hold.
certain stocks are made to buy and hold.
just be careful with the divvys end.
by the way I wonder if someone here actually took the slightest glimpse of some direction through options.
GLTY


----------



## Toronto.gal

sylyconvalley said:


> ur either take the money and run *or *buy and hold.


You can run like an honest bandit, like some here did, ie: GH86, AND hold as well. And yes, took that options glimpse!

The plan is definitely to pass the stock to my frugal kid!


----------



## Greyhound86

londoncalling said:


> +1 . John Deere is in the ag sector and it would seem to be a better play than many others out there


John Deere might be a great company and investment but a drop in potash prices is not going to make a big significant difference to the finances of a farmer.

The drop in price will make a big significant difference to the potash miners due to the huge volumes involved however individual farmers do not use enough tonnes of potash to make a big impact.

I farm in western Canada and sow about 4000 acres. We might use potash on 2000 acres a year (not all crops we grow require or respond to potash fertilizer) spending at most $20,000. A 1/3 drop in price might save us $6,000 which is a nice amount but not as important as changes in the price of corn, canola, wheat and soybeans.

$6,000 over 4,000 acres is only $1.50 per acres. If the price of wheat or canola goes up $.03 per bushel (which is a pretty tiny move) it also equeals about $6,000.

A new John Deere combine and headers will cost at least $500,000. So the savings on the potash fertilizer will not result in a big rush to the local John Deere dealership to buy new equipment.

Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer are used in much higher quantities than potash so a big drop in those prices will be more important.


----------



## supperfly17

Greyhound86 said:


> John Deere might be a great company and investment but a drop in potash prices is not going to make a big significant difference to the finances of a farmer.
> 
> The drop in price will make a big significant difference to the potash miners due to the huge volumes involved however individual farmers do not use enough tonnes of potash to make a big impact.
> 
> I farm in western Canada and sow about 4000 acres. We might use potash on 2000 acres a year (not all crops we grow require or respond to potash fertilizer) spending at most $20,000. A 1/3 drop in price might save us $6,000 which is a nice amount but not as important as changes in the price of corn, canola, wheat and soybeans.
> 
> $6,000 over 4,000 acres is only $1.50 per acres. If the price of wheat or canola goes up $.03 per bushel (which is a pretty tiny move) it also equeals about $6,000.
> 
> A new John Deere combine and headers will cost at least $500,000. So the savings on the potash fertilizer will not result in a big rush to the local John Deere dealership to buy new equipment.
> 
> Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer are used in much higher quantities than potash so a big drop in those prices will be more important.


thank you for the insight. Very helpful.


----------



## Ag Driver

I jumped in at about 29.86 this morning. This DCA'd me to about $32. I now have my even 50 shares for a long term holding.


----------



## Ethan

I wrote this on a different forum yesterday:



> I really think the significant drop in share price is not justified. Potash is just one product line for POT, the phosphate and nitrogen divisions generated 42% of POT's gross margin in 2012.
> 
> POT ships about 2 million tonnes of potash per quarter. Their Q2 average realized price was $368/tonne. If you assume prices fall to $300/tonne and production falls 10% to 1.8 million tonnes, that is only a decrease in revenue of $172 million/quarter. POT makes over $500 million/quarter and has plenty of excess cashflow. POT generated free cash flows of $748 million in Q2 2012, $983 million YTD. After subtracting Q2 dividends of $233 million and YTD dividends of $410 million, POT is generating excess cashflow of $515 million in Q2 and $573 million for the year. POT spends nearly all of their excess cashflow on debt repayment, they could easily slow down those payments in the event that revenue falls. They also had $760 million in working capital at the end of Q2 to tide them over during any periods where cashflows decrease.
> 
> POT may cut their dividend, but they certainly have the cash flow and working capital to maintain it.
> 
> As for the Russian mines, I've heard some funny stories about the terrible shape their mines are in. I don't think they could increase their production for extended periods of time, they've been unreliable at doing so in the past.


I picked up some POT this morning.


----------



## Eder

Greyhound86 said:


> I farm in western Canada and sow about 4000 acres. .


Can I ask if you prefer John Deere equipment or whatever seems best at the time? Thanks!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Thanks *Ethan* for your post!

There is definitely more to this yet unfolding story, than meets the eye IMO. I don't believe it's all about price wars and volume increases; something more broke the 8 year partnership.

Uralkali’s CEO's answer to the question regarding reconciliation, was that he was open to cooperation, but that 'it had to be on a mutually beneficial basis'. Almost sounded like a threat to me.


----------



## PuckiTwo

T-Gal and HP and the others, I don’t want to let it go by without saying many thanks for the detailed clarification of the journalling process between the CAD and USD side in the account.Thks also to Greyhound86 and Ethan for their insider information on the farming/potash industry. Great thread, highly educational and informative.

I initiated a position in POT after earnings and journalled them over to the US side after reading this thread. Bought more shares at $29.96, sold those w 9.2% profit (probably more luck than knowledge).


----------



## humble_pie

PuckiTwo said:


> I initiated a position in POT after earnings and journalled them over to the US side after reading this thread



pucki i seem to recall you have a questrade account? 

faites attention, the rules re currency-of-purchase & also re journalling-stock-to-opposite-currency-for-dividend-reasons may be different at questrade.

what t.gal & i were describing works perfectly at these brokers: td, cibc, bmo. It seems from HC & altaRed that scotiaITrade works along these lines as well.

but questrade remains an enigma. I'm wondering if you, peterk & m3s could post some dividend FX results for the 18 canadian companies that pay USD divs, at least for a while? we would be able, eventually, to discern a pattern.

no need to disclose total dividend amounts, just work out what you actually receive per share vs what would have been received per share using bank of canada noon rate. Please mention in post in which currency shares were bought, also whether held in rrsp or non-reg'd. 

.


----------



## PuckiTwo

humble_pie said:


> but questrade remains an enigma. I'm wondering if you, peterk & m3s could post some dividend FX results for the 18 canadian companies that pay USD divs, at least for a while? we would be able, eventually, to discern a pattern..


HP, I bought POT in an unregistered TD account but hold a smidgen Goldcorp in my Questrade learning account (unregistered). I will have a look but it may be too small to get a meaningful figure.


----------



## Greyhound86

Eder said:


> Can I ask if you prefer John Deere equipment or whatever seems best at the time? Thanks!


No real preference


----------



## londoncalling

Greyhound86 said:


> John Deere might be a great company and investment but a drop in potash prices is not going to make a big significant difference to the finances of a farmer.


you totally missed my point. I was trying to point out that Deere is not a stock most would want to avoid as was the comparison of the ag sector to airlines. I grew up in SK in a potash mining community next to many many farmers. Have worked on the farm as well as in the mining sector. I totally understand both sectors quite well.



Greyhound86 said:


> The drop in price will make a big significant difference to the potash miners due to the huge volumes involved however individual farmers do not use enough tonnes of potash to make a big impact.
> 
> I farm in western Canada and sow about 4000 acres. We might use potash on 2000 acres a year (not all crops we grow require or respond to potash fertilizer) spending at most $20,000. A 1/3 drop in price might save us $6,000 which is a nice amount but not as important as changes in the price of corn, canola, wheat and soybeans.
> 
> $6,000 over 4,000 acres is only $1.50 per acres. If the price of wheat or canola goes up $.03 per bushel (which is a pretty tiny move) it also equeals about $6,000.
> 
> A new John Deere combine and headers will cost at least $500,000. So the savings on the potash fertilizer will not result in a big rush to the local John Deere dealership to buy new equipment.
> 
> Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer are used in much higher quantities than potash so a big drop in those prices will be more important.


I do not disagree with any of your statements greyhound but I don't see any farmers on coffee row complaining about the possibility of paying less for input costs except those that hold shares in POT etc. Nitrates and phosphates are definitely the prices that farmers are watching closely.

btw at 25 quarters you are not just doin this as a hobbyeaceful:

Cheers


----------



## sylyconvalley

james 4 beach et al.
i would highly suggest the the POT enthusiasts (lol) to carefully monitor where big money is placing their bets down the road.
u will be surprised that things may not be as they seem.
do ur homework.
put some effort as to why a call writer would stick his neck out to collect a premium at certain levels that can go badly against him.
same for puts.
It will be volatile if ur trading the stock itself.
I am about to step in.
in both directions.
I am buying ( when i buy) a married put .
GL 
peace be with all of ya.


----------



## Toronto.gal

sylyconvalley said:


> peace be with all of ya.


Like that signature! 

I say forget this week's bombshell, and just enjoy the long w/end everyone!


----------



## Toronto.gal

PuckiTwo said:


> Bought at $29.96/sold w 9.2% profit


Welcome back & congrats on the nice trade!


----------



## PuckiTwo

Toronto.gal said:


> Welcome back & congrats on the nice trade!


Thks T.gal for the nice words. Wished more of my investing decisions would turn out so positive. Sitting on some real newbie mistakes.


----------



## blin10

almost 5% divi on a potash, wow.... they might cut it but they sure have the balance sheet to maintain it


----------



## blin10

it's not good that it keeps making new lower lows, a good chance will drop more


----------



## dubmac

> =Financial Cents;65502]If you're owing this stock for yield, there are much better companies to own.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm wondering whether the dividend will be cut or eliminated in the quarter or 2.
Click to expand...


----------



## My Own Advisor

I'm thinking the same dubmac, although current EPS covers it.


----------



## fatcat

> I'm wondering whether the dividend will be cut or eliminated in the quarter or 2.


they recently (sometime this year i believe) stated that they intend to grow this dividend fairly significantly and even aggressively

are we to believe this geopolitical sundering of the cartel never occurred to the management ?

and that they never took something like this happening into consideration ?

this is a well established, mature player in their industry and i doubt that they haven't made plans for this event and are likely to stay the course regarding dividends

the ceo has been so for almost 15 years and has like 40 years in the fertilizer business

i admit i have no proof but have to believe that they will work through this and do what they say they will do


----------



## blin10

i love how all those analysts on TV say they wouldn't touch POT bla bla, then they recommend some BS company with a market cap of 50mill and $3/share price.... or they say first you need to see uptrend and then buy it, right, when you see uptrend you'll be too late and buying it at 40$+ a share... this is what investing is, finding a value, buying low and selling high, to buy low you need to take some type of risk otherwise it wouldn't be low... can it go lower? yes, can it cut divi? yes, but that's why you're paying $29 a share right now for uncertainty...


----------



## gibor365

IMHO. downside is more limited than upside in current price.


----------



## m3s

blin10 said:


> this is what investing is, finding a value, buying low and selling high, to buy low you need to take some type of risk otherwise it wouldn't be low... can it go lower? yes, can it cut divi? yes, but that's why you're paying $29 a share right now for uncertainty...


Well put. Whenever people talk about their worst investment it's always "I heard on TV..." I remember when the sky was falling on Toyota over the gas peddle, but now a few years later they're on a huge tear. I just wish there was more bashing of stocks on TV. It's hard to find a deal these days.


----------



## My Own Advisor

You got it m3s, the more bashing, the better for buyers. 

I hope the experts start bashing every stock listed in XIU


----------



## PuckiTwo

fatcat said:


> are we to believe this geopolitical sundering of the cartel never occurred to the management ?
> and that they never took something like this happening into consideration ?
> this is a well established, mature player in their industry and i doubt that they haven't made plans for this event ............ the ceo has been so for almost 15 years and has like 40 years in the fertilizer business
> 
> i admit i have no proof but have to believe that they will work through this and do what they say they will do


Exactly, in an industry with such few players they cannot keep a move like leaving the cartel an absolute secret. In any industry, if you are a player (big or small) you *know* what is going on. POT Saskatchewan has very likely guessed, speculated about, anticipated, probably rumoured, discussed-what-do-we-do-if/. - and would have had its plans for a case like that in the desk drawer.


----------



## Synergy

PuckiTwo said:


> Exactly, in an industry with such few players they cannot keep a move like leaving the cartel an absolute secret. In any industry, if you are a player (big or small) you *know* what is going on. POT Saskatchewan has very likely guessed, speculated about, anticipated, probably rumoured, discussed-what-do-we-do-if/. - and would have had its plans for a case like that in the desk drawer.


If this is the case, shouldn't management release a statement to help reassure shareholders? If they anticipated such a move, you'd think they'd have some sort of plan.


----------



## PuckiTwo

Synergy said:


> If this is the case, shouldn't management release a statement to help reassure shareholders? If they anticipated such a move, you'd think they'd have some sort of plan.


So that your opponent knows what your plans are? I liked Gibor's hint to chess play (post#252).


----------



## AltaRed

Managements should never release the contents/results of their scenario planning exercises, or at most, make a comment that they have, in their files, plans for dealing with such scenarios. Most consider it proprietary information. The plan, if POT has been sophisticated enough to have various plans on the shelf, will eventually manifest itself based on actions and outcomes for investors to see for themselves.

P.S. The blue chip corp I worked for conducted scenario planning exercises every few years for a wide range of outcomes, assessed in general terms the probability of each, and then the ability of the corp to execute the various plans. One of the best things from such exercises was to uncover vulnerabilities.


----------



## Synergy

I guess it'd be hard to provide any reassurance without divulging key information. It will be interesting to see how things play out...


----------



## AltaRed

Synergy said:


> I guess it'd be hard to provide any reassurance without divulging key information. It will be interesting to see how things play out...


The most interesting thing is, given the strength of their balance sheet, whether they will actually start buying back their shares.... and the second most interesting thing is whether they will cut their dividend somewhat to facilitate those buybacks. Reducing their dividend preserves more cash for share buybacks AND also causes their share price to drop some to buy back even more shares - with the primary negative being the stigma of cutting their dividend. I don't think they will cut their dividend, but if they do, it will not likely be because they have too.


----------



## dubmac

AltaRed said:


> The most interesting thing is, given the strength of their balance sheet, whether they will actually start buying back their shares.... .


If they do buy back shares, then this news should be made public - yes? 
I recall CEO's and board members are required to anouncement any buy/sells as a matter of transparency.


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> If they do buy back shares, then this news should be made public - yes?


yes they must announce & they do announce.

the tricky part is that by the time the announcement appears, all is usually too late. The cagey thing that Red is doing here is catching the beaten-down-share-price-plus-balance-sheet combo & he is thinking about the possibility of a stock buy-back while even the board of directors itself may have not yet entirely twigged.

often, announcement of a share buyback counts for some superficial analysts as a bullish signal.

however, it's an unreliable signal imho, because nothing obliges a company to actually buy back even a single share after it has announced its plans for the same. It is thought that some unscrupulous companies "announce" false buybacks that they have no intention of executing, merely in order to goose their share price.


----------



## AltaRed

Precisely. Companies must announce buybacks and they do. What they do not necessary do, as HP points out, is actually purchase back shares. It pays to watch the quarterlies to see if they do so. I don't think such announcements necessarily goose share prices (at least short term), but they tend to put a bit of a floor on share price. Longer term, less shares outstanding means higher EPS, etc. that should translate into higher share prices.

Key point: Companies generally do not buy back shares unless it is likely to provide the best return for their investment, i.e. above and beyond capex and boosting dividend payout.


----------



## Ethan

POT received approval from the TSX to buy back up to 5% of the outstanding shares over a 1 year period starting August 2, 2013.

http://www.4-traders.com/POTASH-COR...pproval-of-Share-Repurchase-Program-17142470/

POT applied for the share repurchase before last weeks news; however I think they will still go through with it. The share price has decreased 20%, they possess a large working capital balance and even with lower prices and volume I predict they'll have excess cash flow.


----------



## Andrew

I bought more POT last week at $30. I still believe in the long term prospects for this company and think the market is overreacting.


----------



## Dibs

Looking at insider trading since Jul 29th there have been public market buys from 3 different directors for a total of 14000 shares. Another interesting tidbit is that one of the subsidiary executives exercised some options for 40000 shares and sold them right before the 20% drop!


----------



## Toronto.gal

james4beach said:


> I'm a *bond & fixed income guy*. I also don't have spare money to speculate with in stocks. I wish I did... and if I had the gambling money available, I would be using charts to assist me in speculation.


This article made me think of you young J4B [under 30 I think]; especially the part about needing X amount in order to invest [recall you mentioned a figure around $250K to do so].

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/08/03/youth-investing-personal-finance/


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> But I really don't trade stocks too often. I'm a bond & fixed income guy. I also don't have spare money to speculate with in stocks. I wish I did



whatever is a bond & fixed income guy doing, pretending he doesn't speculate, when in fact he's shorting stocks all the time.

shorting stock is ultra-high-risk speculation. Only 3 weeks ago, our james had this to confide each:





james4beach said:


> I've been relatively happy with Interactive Brokers. I frequently short stocks there, and they even have a nice web-based tool where you can inquire whether a stock is available to short


----------



## neoabraxas

I just bought at around the closing price of today (CAD $30.57). Going to hold it for a 5-10% gain with a stop loss of 3%. Wish me luck


----------



## mrPPincer

Neoabraxas if you don't mind my asking, why are you using a stop loss?
Don't you think that's a little dangerous in today's computer traded markets where a 3% fluctuation is nothing these days?

I was under the impression that stop losses were an archaic tool that people used back in the days when the primary source of information on daily stock prices was the morning newspaper, and that a more appropriate name for them today should be loss locks or something.

I could be wrong, I'm not an active trader.
Maybe one of the more active traders here could comment on the stop loss?


----------



## james4beach

humble_pie said:


> whatever is a bond & fixed income guy doing, pretending he doesn't speculate, when in fact he's shorting stocks all the time.
> 
> shorting stock is ultra-high-risk speculation. Only 3 weeks ago, our james had this to confide each:


For any of you who lost track... the story here is that humble_pie is positive that I'm some kind of planted shill, here with some agenda.

I think humble_pie is sharp and has lots of great comments, but feel his suspicions about me are misdirected. While he's sitting there worried about who I am and what my agenda is, his *broker* is ripping him off daily in forex spreads and by trading against him, the *Federal Reserve* is directly trading against him and manipulating the values of his assets, and Canadian *banksters* have taken billions $ from the federal government and saddled him with future liabilities and future taxes & inflation... and he's still mostly concerned, apparently, about who I am.

humble_pie: I'm nobody. I'm a researcher and I don't make much money. I like markets for fun, but all my serious money goes into fixed income.


----------



## gibor365

neoabraxas said:


> I just bought at around the closing price of today (CAD $30.57). Going to hold it for a 5-10% gain with a stop loss of 3%. Wish me luck


most likely your stop loss will be triggered tomorrow  To tell the truth , I just don't understand such approach...


----------



## neoabraxas

There is a strong area of support around 3% lower than I bought it. I figure that if it breaks this firewall I want to be out for now. That's why the stop loss. And yes, I know that a lot of stocks gap down/gap up these days but it's the best protection I can get.


----------



## dubmac

neoabraxas said:


> I know that a lot of stocks gap down/gap up these days but it's the best protection I can get.


@neo
true enough, but be mindful of trading costs. A 3% drop will likely result in a sell transaction, which means you will have lost more $ on trading fees. JMO.


----------



## Toronto.gal

neoabraxas said:


> 1. I know that a lot of stocks gap down/gap up these days but it's the *best protection I can get*...stop loss of 3%.
> 2. Wish me luck


*1.* A 3% hourly fluctuation is pretty normal for many stocks. Do you normally use that strategy, or only after the shakeup of stocks?

If you would have bought the stock on July 29th, your loss on July 30th, would not have been limited to 3%.

This article explains well:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...hen-stop-loss-orders-dont-work/article625413/


*2.* Good luck to us all!


----------



## KrissyFair

mrPPincer said:


> Don't you think that's a little dangerous in today's computer traded markets where a 3% fluctuation is nothing these days?


Case in point: someone's algorithm farted at 2:52 yesterday and a dozen fertilizer companies all went up 20% in 20 seconds. A stop loss that small without any caveats actually seems pretty risky these days.


----------



## neoabraxas

I only used this strategy on Potash because I noticed the strong support level around CAD $29 so I figured this was a bit of a firewall. I think it's unlikely for POT to gap down hard again in the near future and if I was a long term investor in it I would not have bothered with a stop loss.

The reason I got into it in the first place was that yesterday had a hallmarks of a technical breakout but this morning it looks like the stock has settled and the breakout signal was false. I'll probably close the position today at essentially no loss and no profit.


----------



## Synergy

looks like management is indeed trying to provide some reassurance to shareholders...

“I would just urge people to take a deep breath, relax, and everything’s going to be just fine,” the chief executive of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. said in a unique question-and-answer webcast on Wednesday."

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/08/07/potash-corp-chief-plays-down-price-plunge/


----------



## humble_pie

russia-belarus talks over the Uralkali/Belaruskali potash sales agreement collapsed today as belarus arrested the head of Uralkali as he arrived at the Minsk airport.

russia retaliated by banning meat products from belarus & cutting oil supplies to the nation, which is a transit region for oil & gas pipeline shipments to the West.

in other news, belarus state producer Belaruskali put 2 of its 4 potash plants on suspended standby this am.


----------



## blin10

it's heating up... anyone is selling shares that they picked up in low 30's ? i think ill hold mine longer


----------



## Synergy

blin10 said:


> it's heating up... anyone is selling shares that they picked up in low 30's ? i think ill hold mine longer


It remains a long term hold for me. Not sure why it's up over 5% this morning...


----------



## Toronto.gal

blin10 said:


> it's heating up... anyone is selling shares that they picked up in low 30's ? i think ill hold mine longer


Hold/trade it.


----------



## Dibs

Synergy said:


> It remains a long term hold for me. Not sure why it's up over 5% this morning...


Some news sources say today's price rise is because of Putins statements on Friday saying that the Uralkali dispute must be resolved. Other sources are reporting rumors that Kerimov, who owns a 21.7% stake in Uralkali, may be exiting his stake in the company. He was the one who was pushing the "volume over price strategy".

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/c...tash-stocks-rise-on-putin-comments-47835.html
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...gher+on+Rumors+(POT)+(IPI)+(MOS)/8669637.html


----------



## Jon_Snow

What a nice surprise to start off the week. Makes Monday just a bit more bearable.


----------



## fatcat

Jon_Snow said:


> What a nice surprise to start off the week. Makes Monday just a bit more bearable.


is that on china news ?


----------



## blin10

technically speaking, on NYSE if it goes above $32 an stays there in the next few days it'd be extremely bullish...


----------



## blin10

mmmmmmmmm... nice


----------



## Ag Driver

blin10 said:


> mmmmmmmmm... nice


+1. I'm quite happy I dumped more in when it hit 29 .... if only my other stocks choices would crash 20% in one day too!


----------



## blin10

ya when every "pro" was saying how they wouldn't touch it, i load up 3000 shares around 31... sold half right now, will hold other half long term


----------



## Ag Driver

blin10 said:


> ya when every "pro" was saying how they wouldn't touch it, i load up 3000 shares around 31... sold half right now, will hold other half long term


Well done! My shares are held as a long term position.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Ag Driver said:


> I dumped more in when *it hit 29* ....


And if you drip, your last div. payment on Aug.2nd, would have purchased shares in the $29+ range as well, so on those free shares, I'm already up $4+.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I loaded up on POT (1000 shares) when it tanked and am now sitting up 13%. I was willing to sit on this for a long time. There is a temptation to cash in now. What to do, CMF?


----------



## the_apprentice

^ Don't sell.


----------



## blin10

Jon_Snow said:


> I loaded up on POT (1000 shares) when it tanked and am now sitting up 13%. I was willing to sit on this for a long time. There is a temptation to cash in now. What to do, CMF?


I'm feeling same, but the problem is by selling blue chip companies and taking profits it's really hard to replace them... same with ipl, i'm up big but if I sell it what exactly am i going to replace it with ? ;o


----------



## Eder

If I can't decide whether or not to lock in a gain I usually sell a quarter or half and buy it back if price drops 20%. Kinda like kissing your sister but fulfills my secret desire to be a winner.


----------



## youngdad3

+1 in your position Jon_Snow maybe I'd sell 200 or 500 shares so you have the quick money + long term return potential.

In my case though, since I already had positions in POT before the dip, I'm now sitting a -1% overall, phew. Glad I bought 100 more in the 29 range.


----------



## blin10

what happened to pot in the last 20 min ?


----------



## blin10

"MOSCOW, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Russian tycoon Suleiman Kerimov is selling his stake in potash producer Uralkali to investor Vladimir Kogan for $3.7 bill"

I guess that's why


----------



## blin10

it's stuck at the very tight level, watch big move up or down from here


----------



## Canadian

I wouldn't mind another (temporary) price dip so I can add to my position. Unless some breaking news surfaces over the next couple weeks I don't think we'll see an indication of the company's intermediate- or long-term direction until Q3 earning release in October.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I will just add my one thought to all the holders of this stock. Do you really think it makes sense to own a company that requires a "cartel" to control pricing in order for it to make the desired profit? Is this really the best company you can find out there to invest in?

On a secondary note: Please explain to me what the difference is between a price cartel and two or more competing companies getting together to set a market price. I know the latter is illegal under the anti-trust laws and is usually punishable with prison terms to the perpetrators, but why is a price cartel OK with everyone? Is the FBI and RCMP just asleep at the switch?


----------



## HaroldCrump

OptsyEagle said:


> Do you really think it makes sense to own a company that requires a "cartel" to control pricing in order for it to make the desired profit? Is this really the best company you can find out there to invest in?


I guess that rules out investing in BCE, Rogers, and Telus as well.
As well, any of the big 5 banks.

For business of this type, if a company gets caught, it is price collusion; if it is known but not charged, it is a cartel; else it is a "business moat".
It is not as black and white as you claim.


----------



## gibor365

blin10 said:


> "MOSCOW, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Russian tycoon Suleiman Kerimov is selling his stake in potash producer Uralkali to investor Vladimir Kogan for $3.7 bill"
> 
> I guess that's why


Cannot find a link between those 2 "russian" guys , Uralkali and POT 
Kerimov is currently in selling mode, just sold several best players from his futball club FC Anzhi Makhachkala


----------



## thompsg4416

Strasti Gibor.. 

Kogan has ties to St.Petersberg and has even held a few posts in the federal gov. So he's connected to the government which means he's connected to Kerimov at least by proxy. The sale of something like this at a time like this doesn't happen without very high level involvement. I read somewhere that removing Kerimov from the equation was a move to try and make the Belorussians happy.. I'm not really sure though. Anyways lets hope the situation resolves itself. I'm enjoying the bounce!!

If you were being sarcastic forget everything I just said. LOL


----------



## gibor365

I'm not really sarcastic  I also hold POT and trying to understand what gonna be.....
Yes, V. Kogan is Putin's friend and former vice-minister
_According to data on the income and property, Vladimir Kogan's personal income in 2010 made nearly 821 million rubles. Has in property five apartments, two houses (one of them — in Cyprus), four cars (Cadillac Escalade ESV, Land Rover Range Rover, Mercedes-Benz S500 4M and Porsche Cayenne Turbo), three small size vessels. According to the business press [6], the Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation removed from an official site of declarations of the employees because of Kogan's too high income. Country house in Keysary and the apartment worth 30 million dollars in Tel Aviv in Israel._


----------



## Canadian

Any thoughts?

http://www.4-traders.com/AGRIUM-INC-1408946/news/Potash-Corp-sees-China-stake-in-Uralkali-as-non-event-17292975/

I wonder if such a move would make Uralkali a preferred supplier to China over time or if this is just noise.

Also - does anyone else question the quality of potash that this company can produce? I'm wondering there would be any sub-standard treatment to the fertilizer that would cause its quality to be inferior to fertilizers produced by other companies (i.e., Potash, Agrium). If such a hunch turned out to have any truth then an alleged flood of poor quality supply may not have much impact on demand for higher quality product.


----------



## Synergy

Some news today from BNN's morning newsletter:



> Other investing items include “reports” out that the Russians are encouraging Uralkali to “resume cooperation on potash sales with its Belarussian rival”. At the same time, there are bidders for Suleiman Kerimov’s interest in Uralkali who are being told to repair the rift between the two companies.


Perhaps we've seen the worst...


----------



## Canadian

http://www.4-traders.com/POTASH-CORPSASKATCHEWAN-1411303/news/Potash-CorpSaskatchewan-Inc--Potash-Corp-3rd-Quarter-Profit-Sinks-45-17392447/

Anyone have thoughts on Q3 earnings? A new beginning or just an overly tough quarter with the events? Price of potash has increased a bit and stabilized since the first scare, and if this whole Uralkali thing goes back to normal we should expect the commodity price to creep up a bit more. Overall sales are down but I still see strong future demand for the product, unless a "better" fertilizer is synthesized.


----------



## PatInTheHat

Added a bit at 30 and sold at 31 today. Will buy again on any future drops. Long term this will all work itself out.


----------



## Canadian

I started a small position a bit over a year ago at around 39 and averaged down today on the news. Their Q3 balance sheet is looking pretty good to me. They are sitting on a good chunk of cash and, while their gross margins have been squeezed this quarter, their profit margin is consistent.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I initiated a large position in the 29's the very instant it plummeted back in August. Tempted to sell when it almost hit $34. But I have the time to wait this one out, and collect its suddenly juicy dividends in the meantime.


----------



## Canadian

Jon_Snow said:


> collect its suddenly juicy dividends in the meantime.


The company has also committed to follow through with its share buyback :encouragement:


----------



## Longwinston

agreed, if you are looking at a long term horizon, 20+ years! this investment is a no brainer to me. Recent volatility is a great time to start a long term position.


----------



## Canadian

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/potashcorp-to-cut-hundreds-of-jobs-1.2448756

Yay or nay? Strategically, it's probably for the better (looking over the long term). I'll be interested to see the short term trading, though. It's a bit overweight in my portfolio but I'm not sure I can resist adding to my position if it dips below $28 or even lower.


----------



## blin10

market likes it, it's up on a down day


----------



## Canadian

I was surprised by that, actually. I just finished reading Toronto Sun's article on the news (http://www.torontosun.com/2013/12/03/potash-corp-to-cut-workforce-by-18-as-prices-slump) and their tone is that the company is sitting on piles of potash and has a lot of excess capacity compared to current and short-term forecasted demand. I wonder how much impact this will really have on the bottom line.


----------



## Ag Driver

$116 to $155 million in savings from the lay off, based from 2013 cost per ton numbers at a little over half capacity. $232 million projected savings by 2016. I'm not terribly phased by this decision. To me, it just makes sense. The operation is running at half capacity, it is unnecessary to have excess staffing and production. Potash use is a huge ingredient in fertilizers, and isn't going off the market any time soon. People need to eat, yields need to increase to meet the demand, thus fertilizers need to be used. As far as I'm concerned, Potash is here to stay for the foreseeable future, at least up until the people really get on board with genetic modifications. As the worlds largest producer, I will be sticking with these guys.


----------



## 6811

blin10 said:


> market likes it, it's up on a down day


Sector Update: Potash Stocks May Be Worth Watching Amid Reports Uralkali, Belarus Venture May Be Reformed
08:51 AM EST, 12/27/2013 (MT Newswires) -- Potash stocks like Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT, POT.TO), Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU, AGU.TO) may be worth watching today as Canada's BNN TV says that Russia's ambassador to Belarus has been reported as saying the venture between Russia's OAO Uralkali, the world's largest potash producer, and Belarus might be reformed. Uralkali halted cooperation with Belarus, which controlled supplies from the former Soviet Union back in July. This led to a big drop in potash prices.

Up 75 cents on the day so far (2.19%) -- Keep going up please!


----------



## Ag Driver

6811 said:


> Up 75 cents on the day so far (2.19%) -- Keep going up please!


Before the 20% drop I was up 10% and contemplating selling (hind sight is 20/20). I bought more on the plummet and I'm now up 7.5%. I won't talk about my G.TO, or TA numbers though hehe. This will be a long term hold for me...I may reassess when it gets back to the 40's.


----------



## blin10

from technicals on NYSE side it's setup nicely for a pop, any good news and it should fly... we need to break 33.2 and stay above 33.8


----------



## Jon_Snow

Bought a ton of this when the Russia/Belarus cartel broke up... needless to say I am enjoying this ride up right now.


----------



## maxandrelax

Lower lows and higher highs... looking for some good volume, technical resistance is now up where it was before the drop. 6 months is pretty good for consolidation?


----------



## PatInTheHat

Recently sold so I suspect the cartel will come back any day now


----------



## Ag Driver

PatInTheHat said:


> Recently sold so I suspect the cartel will come back any day now


I appreciate you taking one for the team!


----------



## blin10

woot woot


----------



## fatcat

blin10 said:


> woot woot


i have POT, TCK and CCO and POT/CCO are finally pushing into the green again to join TCK


----------



## Canadian

Why the bump up today? I don't see any news.


----------



## PatInTheHat

Canadian said:


> Why the bump up today? I don't see any news.


I think I mentioned above.. I sold


----------



## Jon_Snow

Thanks for helping fund my early retirement Pat... :biggrin:


----------



## blin10

man, any really good news can light this thing up another $5 easy... there's no resistance until $37 on nyse


----------



## maxandrelax

blin10 said:


> man, any really good news can light this thing up another $5 easy... there's no resistance until $37 on nyse


Sitting on the 200dma is a good place to be. I would have bought more if I wasn't overweight.


----------



## blin10

gatta love those "analysts" that wouldn't "touch" potash...


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ +1.

Soon, if not already, all will be upgrading the stock.

Volatility won't end any time soon, though.


----------



## fatcat

TCK, CCO and POT are all popping nicely ... obviously this is a mistake because the experts have all loudly warned us the commodity cycle is over
and they are never wrong


----------



## Canadian

It's officially blown through its resistance and crossed its 200 day MA.









Buying and momentum are high and I think it will continue for a little bit. Perhaps speculation of a Ukrali-related announcement to come.


----------



## blin10

on the canadian side yes, but on usa side it didn't cross 200ma yet, usa one is more important...



Canadian said:


> It's officially blown through its resistance and crossed its 200 day MA.
> 
> View attachment 385
> 
> 
> Buying and momentum are high and I think it will continue for a little bit. Perhaps speculation of a Ukrali-related announcement to come.


----------



## Canadian

Ok I see that now. We're very close though!









200 day MA on the US side is $34.32 as shown on the chart. Today's high so far is $34.50USD and the price is $34.37USD as I write this. There is still the resistance breakout. It's just not as large at the moment as on the Canadian side.

On both sides, though, the 50 day MA is rising and the 200 day MA is flattening.


----------



## blin10

yeah you are right... but some type of pull back is not out of the question at this point either, for it to go higher it needs some good news about russian-belorussian connection


----------



## Canadian

I agree. I'm just excited to see my POT back in the black today after a few months of Ukrali-induced red :biggrin:

In terms of Q4 earnings movement, I honestly have no idea what to expect. Potash commodity prices remain low. Reducing the cost structure will help the bottom line but we won't see the impact likely until Q1 earnings. If there is a decent-sized pullback on earnings I may add again. I'm predicting a good year for the company.


----------



## blin10

how I'm thinking, it might be flat 1-2 years, up and down around 35-40$ range, but if market isn't going to collapse, in few years it might touch $50+



Canadian said:


> I agree. I'm just excited to see my POT back in the black today after a few months of Ukrali-induced red :biggrin:
> 
> In terms of Q4 earnings movement, I honestly have no idea what to expect. Potash commodity prices remain low. Reducing the cost structure will help the bottom line but we won't see the impact likely until Q1 earnings. If there is a decent-sized pullback on earnings I may add again. I'm predicting a good year for the company.


----------



## thompsg4416

I'm finally back up on this one as well. Feels nice Bought in at 38 on the assumption that this would be one of my more conservative "Safe" investments. Not long after was the Ukalkrai breakup and I averaged down to 35... Lets go POT


----------



## Jon_Snow

Bought 1000 shares of POT for UNDER $30 when it tanked.... up over 25% right now. Happy camper here.


----------



## Ag Driver

Jon_Snow said:


> Bought 1000 shares of POT for UNDER $30 when it tanked.... up over 25% right now. Happy camper here.


Like you, I topped up under $30...but I couldn't afford nearly as much volume  I remember you were itching to sell at 13%! What are your plans now? You must be twitching over the sell button @ 25%.

I've got that 13% itch right now -- someone tell me to stick with it! I think I am becoming attached to this one. I think I will continue holding POT as a long term dividend play and top up on dips. It is just so temping to cash in! I have no use for the cash elsewhere...


----------



## londoncalling

Ag Driver said:


> I have no use for the cash elsewhere...


That should be reason enough to hold.


----------



## maxandrelax

Ag Driver said:


> Like you, I topped up under $30...but I couldn't afford nearly as much volume  I remember you were itching to sell at 13%! What are your plans now? You must be twitching over the sell button @ 25%.
> 
> I've got that 13% itch right now -- someone tell me to stick with it! I think I am becoming attached to this one. I think I will continue holding POT as a long term dividend play and top up on dips. It is just so temping to cash in! I have no use for the cash elsewhere...


Oh man, hold on forever. Big capital gains in the future and over 4pct dividend. Booya.


----------



## Synergy

^ Stick with it, it's a great long term hold. Up another 3+% so far today...


----------



## blin10

we need to close above 200ma on NYSE today to have more upside... volume is picking up in the last few days, another positive sign


----------



## Toronto.gal

maxandrelax said:


> Oh man, hold on forever. Big capital gains in the future and over 4pct dividend. Booya.


Been holding since 09.

Demand will only increase, but the stock is not for the faint of heart.


----------



## Ag Driver

Thanks for the reassurance guys. Up almost 18% as of today inside the TFSA. It's a measly 50 shares, and it was my very first purchase. So maybe I'll just close my eyes and let it ride while taking the divvies.


----------



## fatcat

this is probably wishful thinking and thus completely wrong but i can't help but wonder if the incredible pop in POT, TCK and CCO lately is actually saying something about the future direction of this market

as in ... it has legs and the commodities are a comment on a worldwide recovery


----------



## Longwinston

fatcat said:


> this is probably wishful thinking and thus completely wrong but i can't help but wonder if the incredible pop in POT, TCK and CCO lately is actually saying something about the future direction of this market
> 
> as in ... it has legs and the commodities are a comment on a worldwide recovery


Not to me. To me this is simply a re-evaluating of the value of the company based on the Russians and Byelorussians reforming their cartel putting upward prices on potash.


----------



## fatcat

Longwinston said:


> Not to me. To me this is simply a re-evaluating of the value of the company based on the Russians and Byelorussians reforming their cartel putting upward prices on potash.


except my TCK and CCO popped just as nicely as my POT and both TCK and CCO are popping again today, this is about commodities in general i think, not just POT


----------



## Longwinston

fatcat said:


> except my TCK and CCO popped just as nicely as my POT and both TCK and CCO are popping again today, this is about commodities in general i think, not just POT


Hmm, well you could be right.


----------



## Justin1980

Did i read correctly that Pot.TSX increased it's dividend yesterday from $1.40 to $1.56?
...but that the US "version" Pot.NYSE had no increase?

Why would this be the case?


----------



## BlackThursday

Justin1980 said:


> Did i read correctly that Pot.TSX increased it's dividend yesterday from $1.40 to $1.56?
> ...but that the US "version" Pot.NYSE had no increase?
> 
> Why would this be the case?


No, you did not read it correctly. 
http://www.potashcorp.com/news/1801/


----------



## leeder

The difference is due to FX rate difference, where $0.35 USD is about $0.39 CAD.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Justin1980 said:


> Why would this be the case?


To add to what leeder said, remember the company declares/pays its dividend in $USD, hence the conversion if you have your shares in a Canadian $ account.

http://www.potashcorp.com/investors/stock_information/dividend_history/


----------



## AltaRed

Further to what has been said, stock with the same CUSIP is exactly the same stock, regardless of where traded.


----------



## Justin1980

Ok thanks guys. This was the email i got, with the previous divi shown as $1.40, and the current as $1.56. 
Would be so much easier if both were shown in the same currency! :S


----------



## blin10

yah I don't think they'll be increasing this dividend for a LONG time


----------



## al42

I don't think they'll be increasing this dividend for a LONG time 

That's OK with me as long as they maintain it. I think we all know what happens when a company cuts it's dividend.


----------



## 6811

Big jump today, what gives???


----------



## Justin1980

Probably due to uncertainty in the region towards Potash's competitor, Uralkali.


----------



## blin10

pure technicals, nothing to do with any news, it broke 200 MA on nyse after making a base


----------



## Jon_Snow

Making a killing with this - and more than a 5% dividend to make things even sweeter.


----------



## Canadian

blin10 said:


> pure technicals, nothing to do with any news, it broke 200 MA on nyse after making a base


You're right, no confirmed news. But not all technicals. Threats of increased sanctions against Russia in the Ukraine drama means less potash supply --> speculation of the commodity price increasing.


----------



## Longwinston

Canadian said:


> You're right, no confirmed news. But not all technicals. Threats of increased sanctions against Russia in the Ukraine drama means less potash supply --> speculation of the commodity price increasing.


I thought you were being facetious. There I big news, Uralakli has admitted that they are open to talks with reforming the pricing cartel with the Belorussians.

That's why the price has popped.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f26ce0cc-a4...ng-closer-to-my-40-price-target#axzz2vDHOGE00


----------



## leeder

Heh, maybe I can still break even with this stock, after all. Bought it before the breakup of the cartel.....


----------



## Canadian

That is also a reason but I still attribute the Ukraine drama for part of the reason. It's similar to oil prices spiking when there's unrest in oil-rich countries.


----------



## Longwinston

Canadian said:


> That is also a reason but I still attribute the Ukraine drama for part of the reason. It's similar to oil prices spiking when there's unrest in oil-rich countries.


Ok, there's that I guess I am just saying it's not about technicals lol


----------



## Canadian

Longwinston said:


> Ok, there's that I guess I am just saying it's not about technicals lol


Ok I agree


----------



## favelle75

New CEO today.....stock takes a 2% tumble.....is it buy back time yet for this one? Dividend looks safe and EPS is over $2/share. Looks ripe for a buy for a long-term holder. Any thoughts?


----------



## AltaRed

2% is meaningless for a commodity stock as you might notice from price charts. 10% is more relevant.


----------



## favelle75

AltaRed said:


> 2% is meaningless for a commodity stock as you might notice from price charts. 10% is more relevant.


But that doesn't answer the question of whether or not POT.T is ripe for a buy?


----------



## Synergy

I would be more inclined to add to my position below $35, if it ever gets back to those levels. Currently testing the 50 day MA. Some further market weakness could create a better buying opportunity - closer to the 200 day MA. However, long term (10+ yrs) I think you're okay at these levels.


----------



## humble_pie

i for one don't see a buy. Peter Koven's article in the nat post has got it right. Outgoing CEO bill doyle's swashbuckling style was great for expansionist times, great for world's-gotta-eat times, great for sky's-no-limit-in-fertilizer times.

but incoming CEO jochen tilk will be good for these present times of market shrinkage, times of oversupply, times of cost-cutting, times of pennypinching, times of earnings coming in below analysts' forecasts, says the journo.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/busine...Turn+with+hire+Jochen+Tilk/9710898/story.html

the surprise nomination of Tilk the outsider, as opposed to the expected elevation of a senior potash executive from within the company, suggests to me that the Potash board is anticipating hard times ahead.


----------



## AltaRed

favelle75 said:


> But that doesn't answer the question of whether or not POT.T is ripe for a buy?


No, it doesn't, but neither does any sound bite about a 2% (actually 1.88% yesterday) price change in one day. 

Buys should be based on fundamentals or for the technical guys, 50 and 200 day ma's. POT has varied from $45-30 in the past 52 weeks... with a trading range of $32-34 through the 5 months ending Dec 31st. IF I was looking to buy, I'd be working off that range for a buy. P/E in the order of 16 at those levels, give or take.


----------



## Westerly

I agree the P/E is somewhat high and could go higher this year based on earnings. However, I'm not sure fundamentals would have identified the break-up last year or the rise back up since then, nor am I sure it tells us much about the next 6 months. These are largely macro events that are out of my ability to predict. 

I was happily trading this last year between $40-$44, I bought back in at roughly $40 the week or so before it went to $32. I held those shares for recovery and commenced trading new allocations at the new lower prices. Sold those off and road the initial shares back up to $39 where I sold a couple weeks back - they peaked at $40 last week or so? I'm back in at $36.60ish (maybe a new range?) I know I'm taking some risks here but am comfortable knowing that the "likely" worse case scenario is that I hold these for 10-20 years collecting a decent dividend.


----------



## blin10

got in when it dipped to 30, sold 1/3 around 38, holding rest... maybe in a short term it might go up/down, but in a long term I'm sure it's a winner


----------



## Ethan

I first got into POT last summer after Uralkali left the BPC cartel. I thought the market overreacted to the negative news and I started accumulating at $29.96. Back then many analysts feared potash prices could fall to $300/tonne. Actuals for the 4th quarter were $282/tonne, less than analyst estimates, yet the share price has since risen ~25%. Add in falling prices in nitrogen and phosphate and I don't understand the 2014 runup in share price.

I was called out of all of my 1,100 shares this morning at $36.00/share. I'm glad to be out of POT. I still like the company long term, but not at the current price level.


----------



## Westerly

That is some nice profits, sadly I'm not trading 1,000s of shares (yet I think the pricing still reflects largely uncertain macro events. The initial run appeared to be some hope that the cartel could partially reform; perhaps now people are looking at Russia and the global implications.


----------



## AltaRed

Westerly said:


> I was happily trading this last year between $40-$44, I bought back in at roughly $40 the week or so before it went to $32. I held those shares for recovery and commenced trading new allocations at the new lower prices. Sold those off and road the initial shares back up to $39 where I sold a couple weeks back


Did you do this 'separation' for mental accounting purposes only? Or have them separated into registered and non-registered accounts? Otherwise from strictly an ACB perspective, all shares are created equal.


----------



## blin10

Ethan said:


> I first got into POT last summer after Uralkali left the BPC cartel. I thought the market overreacted to the negative news and I started accumulating at $29.96. Back then many analysts feared potash prices could fall to $300/tonne. Actuals for the 4th quarter were $282/tonne, less than analyst estimates, yet the share price has since risen ~25%. Add in falling prices in nitrogen and phosphate and I don't understand the 2014 runup in share price.
> 
> I was called out of all of my 1,100 shares this morning at $36.00/share. I'm glad to be out of POT. I still like the company long term, but not at the current price level.


if potash prices were less than analyst estimates, yet the share price has since risen ~25% that means when it does recover a bit in the future, pot will be in high 40's...


----------



## Westerly

AltaRed: Yes, actually mental comfort  However, I am starting now to buy my DCAs in my TFSA rather than the originating account. I did this with Bombardier and have some nice tax free recoveries.


----------



## Ethan

Westerly said:


> That is some nice profits, sadly I'm not trading 1,000s of shares (yet I think the pricing still reflects largely uncertain macro events. The initial run appeared to be some hope that the cartel could partially reform; perhaps now people are looking at Russia and the global implications.


There is political risk in Russia, and their mines are not in very good shape. I don't think they are very reliable over the long term.

I think the bigger risk to POT is excess supply and increasing competition in North America. BHP's Jansen Lake mine has the potential to be a game changer (and that is just one mine, they have mineral rights on 14,500 km of land in Saskatchewan) and K+S is well underway on their Legacy mine. Not to mention the potential for Rio Tinto to begin development in the Sedley, SK area or Vale to begin development in the Kronau SK area.


----------



## Ethan

blin10 said:


> if potash prices were less than analyst estimates, yet the share price has since risen ~25% that means when it does recover a bit in the future, pot will be in high 40's...


Do you think Potash prices are recovering? Russia is flooding the market, all 3 of the Canpotex producers are sitting on excess inventory and dramatically slowing down production. Even if prices recover, will they generate the same volumes they did a year ago? I can't see potash prices recovering dramatically anytime soon.

Long-term BHP Billiton and K+S are midway through building mines, and Rio Tinto and Vale have mining rights in Saskatchewan. Not to mention half of POT's business comes from the lower margin nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer markets, which aren't projected to do well this year either.


----------



## blin10

like I said in short term you might be right, but in the long term (like 3years+) who knows what will happen... I'm just saying, why did POT recover from that huge dip while potash prices at the lowest levels? me, you and grand ma's in the basement don't move stock prices, big boy funds buying it up for some reason EVEN with all the negative that you mentioned... if everything is negative and potash price went lower then estimates, why is this thing at 36 and not 29? all it takes is few positive news in the future to light this up 10$ more



Ethan said:


> Do you think Potash prices are recovering? Russia is flooding the market, all 3 of the Canpotex producers are sitting on excess inventory and dramatically slowing down production. Even if prices recover, will they generate the same volumes they did a year ago? I can't see potash prices recovering dramatically anytime soon.
> 
> Long-term BHP Billiton and K+S are midway through building mines, and Rio Tinto and Vale have mining rights in Saskatchewan. Not to mention half of POT's business comes from the lower margin nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer markets, which aren't projected to do well this year either.


----------



## favelle75

Well, I did it. Started a position at $37.09 at the opening bell this morning. I always wanted it but didn't have the cash last summer when it was in the 20's...


----------



## Westerly

Lots of rumour on a renewed BHP takeover bid here, but if it was real wouldn't you expect a bigger initial pop? I've tried to find something to substantiate it, nothing yet.


----------



## Synergy

^ I'm not familiar with any new bids but I did read this today:*3 Reasons Why BHP May Bid on PotashCorp Again*

http://www.fool.ca/2014/04/15/3-reasons-why-bhp-may-bid-on-potashcorp-again/


----------



## favelle75

Westerly said:


> Lots of rumour on a renewed BHP takeover bid here, but if it was real wouldn't you expect a bigger initial pop? I've tried to find something to substantiate it, nothing yet.


3.5% jump on a RUMOUR of a BHP takeover? I'll take it.


----------



## Synergy

I thought yesterdays price movement may have been secondary to continued unrest in the Ukraine? Positive data from china released today may help to bring the stock higher again today...


----------



## PatInTheHat

This space still scares me. The world is saturated with potash and it's going to take years before this changes. I sold my position for a small loss a while back and have no plans to re-enter. Too many factors I cannot predict.


----------



## bmoney

PatInTheHat said:


> This space still scares me. The world is saturated with potash and it's going to take years before this changes. I sold my position for a small loss a while back and have no plans to re-enter. Too many factors I cannot predict.


I would tend to agree, there are too many factors to predict. The landscape is much different now than it was 1 year ago and a lot of the headwinds have been covered. There are some positives factors though that make me want to own POT; the fundamental fact that we have to eat, and we have to deal with climate change makes me want to hold long term. Short term, geopolitical risks and a weaker CAD are a net positive for Canadian producers, and for all the talk about BHP's new mine, bringing to market more supply now is poor timing. This is likely why a takeover is viable, and if I'm correct, their previous offer would be worth about $45/share. I own POT for the long-term and happy to collect my dividend, but I wouldn't sell or add to my position at this moment.


----------



## leeder

BHP hasn't said a word about a takeover bid. I'm not even sure why there would be such rumors. I see the government nixing the acquisition if a foreign company decided to acquire Potash Corp. 

Relative to the potash price, Potash Corp seems overvalued. I wonder if some of it is due to Tilk taking over as CEO. Could be the currency factor too.


----------



## doctrine

POT is up 20-30% when the commodity has dropped 20-30%. The risk/reward is not appealing to me.


----------



## Canadian

The stock and commodity are volatile but my sights are set out to the very long term. I'll continue adding to my position on dips.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I got 1000 shares of POT around $29 - pays me a dividend of around 5%. I intend to hold this for the foreseeable future.

I don't and won't pretend to understand the global dynamics of the potash industry. I'll leave that to the investing brainiacs around here.


----------



## mrPPincer

Why the 5% pop in share price this morning anybody know?
AGU too, but haven't see anything in the headlines yet


----------



## AltaRed

mrPPincer said:


> Why the 5% pop in share price this morning anybody know?
> AGU too, but haven't see anything in the headlines yet


Lots of news. The big russian producer has shut down a large mine due to some issues with no indication when it will be back online. That, plus tight supplies of potash in North Amrica, has given POT, AGU, etc. a significant boost.


----------



## mrPPincer

google finance says somebody bought 7.1 million shares first thing this morning or overnight, it doesn't say the time of purchase, so maybe a buyback or an off-hours insitutional purchase?


----------



## mrPPincer

ah, nice, thanks AltaRed


----------



## HaroldCrump

Regarding AGU, there is a new hedge fund that is targeting AGU again (news is about 2 weeks old now, I think).
Similar story as Jana Partners from 2 years ago...break up the company, spin off the retail arm, etc.
These days, stocks move up sharply at the mere whiff of activist hedge funds targeting the stock....


----------



## P_I

AltaRed said:


> Lots of news. The big russian producer has shut down a large mine due to some issues with no indication when it will be back online. That, plus tight supplies of potash in North Amrica, has given POT, AGU, etc. a significant boost.


The story can be read at Potash Producers Jump After Uralkali Evacuates Mine - Bloomberg


----------



## mrPPincer

Thanks P_I for that Bloomberg link. 

Seems somebody had inside info though; close to 1% of a 33B company traded hands overnight at 38.17 CAD, then in the morning everybody else reacted and the price popped, closing at 40.01 CAD


----------



## blin10

keep in mind a lot of shorts covering as well


----------



## Ethan

Check out these pictures of the flooded Russian mine:

http://www.mining.com/insane-pictures-of-russian-potash-mine-disaster-96066/


----------



## relk19

Ethan said:


> Check out these pictures of the flooded Russian mine:
> 
> http://www.mining.com/insane-pictures-of-russian-potash-mine-disaster-96066/


Crazy. Is that the reason for today's dip? Explain it to a noob how that accident negatively affects POT, or is it just one of those nonsensical emotional reactions.


----------



## Eclectic12

^^^^

The way I read the posts, the mine shutdown was the reason for rise.

As for the fall, maybe the market is thinking the Russian mine production that has stopped was not significant enough to tighten supplies.


Cheers


----------



## fatcat

Eclectic12 said:


> ^^^^
> 
> The way I read the posts, the mine shutdown was the reason for rise.
> 
> As for the fall, maybe the market is thinking the Russian mine production that has stopped was not significant enough to tighten supplies.
> 
> 
> Cheers


and the possibility of repair work and bringing it back online is the reason for the fall ...



> Russia's Uralkali , the world's biggest potash producer, is preparing to start repair work at part of the damaged Solikamsk-2 mine, though it is unclear when output of the fertiliser will restart.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/feed...tash-mine/article21724219/#dashboard/follows/


----------



## Pluto

they are going to fix the mine, so sentiment for pot goes a bit south. That's why the profit taking today. Plus there are people who earlier bought pot at higher prices and awaiting to break even. recent prices could be their break even point.


----------



## gibor365

fatcat said:


> and the possibility of repair work and bringing it back online is the reason for the fall ...
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/feed...tash-mine/article21724219/#dashboard/follows/


It was known last Thu Nov 20, why POT fall today? and shouldn't it rise because their competitors Uralkali has issues?


----------



## Pluto

gibor,

It already did rise because of the Uralkali issues. Then, upon anticipating the issues getting resolved, POT reacted down. Moreover, in a stock such as POT, which has declined over the last 4 years, there are holders with a paper loss. Many hang on hoping for a rally, then sell into the rally so their losses are not so great. That makes it difficult for the price to rise a whole lot. Others bought in 2013 with the idea of a trade off the lows. The recent move up was an opportunity to get out with an ok profit. I sold mine this week.


----------



## Ethan

relk19 said:


> Crazy. Is that the reason for today's dip? Explain it to a noob how that accident negatively affects POT, or is it just one of those nonsensical emotional reactions.


This has more or less been answered already, but the potash producer's shares rose on fears the Russian mine would not produce potash again, and subsequently sank when the Russians indicated it might be salvageable. That mine supplies 3.5% of the world's potash production, so it can have a large effect on the potash market.


----------



## bmoney

The market over-reacted and maybe even a short squeeze contributed to the rapid rise. People are sober now, of course the mine will be repaired and 3.5% of capacity is easily replaced by the existing producers. This disaster is not a material change to supply/production but it provides some excuse to increase prices. My only regret was not selling, too busy working this week to pull the trigger.


----------



## Ag Driver

T Gal and Jon Snow ... Where are you guys at on this one? I'm still holding as per advice and I'm up about 36% Do I bail and dump it into my e-series or do I continue to sit on it. I do enjoy the divvies though!


----------



## Synergy

FWIW I'm still holding. I like those USD$ dividends!


----------



## mrPPincer

Yeah fwiw I'm still holding too, it diversifies my cdn holdings nicely & gives international exposure w eligible divs.
Bought at $30 CAD trading costs in on the cartel news, so EPS/cost is ok for me but I would not be buying at these prices, I drip only because I have no use for the US$ in my semi-closed-down TD acct. (use mainly CIBC now).

For me it is a long term hold unless valuations get too crazy, but as always rule one applies.. do your own due diligence.
Nobody knows the future and the above is not advice, just what IMO is right for my portfolio, to hold, even though I'm up 50% (+ with divs).


----------



## Toronto.gal

Holding my long-term position as well; just balanced a bit to increase other beaten-up sectors.

*MrPPincer:* LOL at your signature.


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> *Holding my long-term position as well; just balanced a bit to* increase other beaten-up sectors.
> 
> *MrPPincer:* LOL at your signature.


 .... + 1 ... same comments here :highly_amused:


----------



## youngdad3

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/29/potash-corp-of-saskatchewan-inc-hikes-dividend-by-9-as-sales-rise-costs-fall/

Dividends up 9% (38c/share), profits jumped 77% YoY even with low potash prices (284$/ton for 2014)

glad I bought in the dip back in 2013


----------



## gibor365

POT pulled back significantly last months , probably because


> To help offset a drop in oil revenue, Saskatchewan Finance Minister Ken Krawetz said the province will require potash mining companies to take tax deductions based on their capital spending over a longer period of time, boosting revenue by C$150 million.
> 
> The change is an interim step to be followed by a broad review of Saskatchewan's potash tax and royalty system......
> 
> The Saskatchewan government's 2015-16 budget is expected to hurt PotashCorp's 2015 pre-tax earnings by C$75 million-C$100 million, the company said on Wednesday.


Still POT has attractive yield, good payout ratio and both trailing and forward P/E less than 5 years average... What do you think.....good time to increase POT position?


----------



## mrPPincer

I won't be, it's already my second highest individual holding.
The current p/e looks decent, but if what you quoted has significant impact the future P/Es might not be accurately reflected yet. 

Don't let my thoughts impact your decision, I'm a total noob at stock analysis & if you're underweight, now might very well be a good time to buy, no way to know what the future holds. 
Me, I'm probably waiting until the next overall correction before I pick up any more individual stocks.


----------



## Ag Driver

I bought at $29.80 in 2013 and sold at $46.57 in 2015. It's on my watch list, but I would like to see it pull back some more.


----------



## Flash

Wow, how did you managed to sell at the utmost peak at 46.57? Can I buy your crystal ball? 

I am also considering starting a position in this. Good diversification stock


----------



## Ag Driver

Flash said:


> Wow, how did you managed to sell at the utmost peak at 46.57? Can I buy your crystal ball?
> 
> I am also considering starting a position in this. Good diversification stock


You can't have mine ! 

I wanted to secure the profits, but was becoming emotionally attached (bad bad bad) to the stock. I really like POT.TO. Initially I bought as a long term hold, hoping to sell in the 50's ... but I sold it to fund COS.TO and I'm rounding the corner to flip COS.TO now too.

I would like to buy back into POT.TO one day. Great stock.


----------



## Flash

I'm actually now looking at AGU. I read that AGU also have some retail sale, rather than just pure fertilizer sale, and their prospect look very good for the future compared to potash, although lower dividend.


----------



## LBCfan

Well, it's 1997 re-lived. Anyone think they will be successful and will K&S help or hurt them? I can see good plus bad.


----------



## besmartrich

I was going to initiate a position on Potash but missed timing and now I see the price temporarily uptrend. :upset:


----------



## londoncalling

http://www.potashcorp.com/news/2036/


----------



## gardner

I was not aware of any of this. Should have started with this one:



> PotashCorp Confirms Friendly Proposal to K+S


http://www.potashcorp.com/news/2034/



> PotashCorp today confirmed that it has made a private proposal to K+S Aktiengesellschaft (K+S) (SDF: GR) to negotiate the acquisition of K+S


from the later release...



> Proposal of €41 per share in cash provides 57 percent premium to the volume weighted average share price during the prior 12 months, and certain value to K+S shareholders


I see K+S trading on the €39 range, so there looks to be some confidence on the K+S investor side that the deal would happen.


----------



## londoncalling

seems like we're not quite ready for a friendly acquisition

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/04/us-k-s-m-a-potash-idUSKCN0PC2A120150704?type=companyNews


----------



## besmartrich

londoncalling said:


> seems like we're not quite ready for a friendly acquisition
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/04/us-k-s-m-a-potash-idUSKCN0PC2A120150704?type=companyNews


I agree. Hope that news bring down the stock price for me to initiate position


----------



## londoncalling

Any body else looking to add or initiate here? I am currently focused on financials but current price has once again gotten my attention. With what is happening overseas there may be some opportunities to buy.

Cheers


----------



## Flash

I'm looking into this as well


----------



## jaybee

Got some today @35.36


----------



## londoncalling

I am looking at POT:US to save on forex for Divvy. Got an order in. Hope it hits soon.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Same reason -bought some more last week, below CD$36 ... if it goes below $35, will buy some more to average down ... good luck.


----------



## Jungle

Wondering if anyone sees a big risk in buying this stock right now. Getting hammered on poor global outlook. Down 29% YTD vs 8% TSX..

pays a high dividend yield now at these prices.. almost 7%. 

Danger play or do they have the financial to back up the dividend?


----------



## cashinstinct

What a day for now:
29.17 Down 2.20(7.01%) 12:01PM EDT

Potash (POT) Stock Tumbling as Rival Cuts Production
http://www.thestreet.com/story/1329...l-cuts-production.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO



> "Currency volatility, lower grain and oilseed prices, political and economic uncertainty, as well as global equity market declines have adversely impacted market sentiment," Mosaic said in a statement.


----------



## Pluto

I'm sure they have the resources to pay the dividend.


----------



## fatcat

AGU is also down nicely, it pays half the dividend that POT does but is a much more well diversified company whose fortunes don't rise and fall with potash


----------



## blin10

picking it up again


----------



## lost in space

Jungle said:


> Wondering if anyone sees a big risk in buying this stock right now. Getting hammered on poor global outlook. Down 29% YTD vs 8% TSX..
> 
> pays a high dividend yield now at these prices.. almost 7%.
> 
> Danger play or do they have the financial to back up the dividend?


The payout ratio is 84 so at least in the near future there doesn't look to be any risk of a dividend cut. Also the dividend in US dollars the yield will change depending not only on the stock price but the CND dollar


----------



## godblsmnymkr

fatcat said:


> AGU is also down nicely, it pays half the dividend that POT does but is a much more well diversified company whose fortunes don't rise and fall with potash


i started a small position in AGU.TO yesterday. unfortunately POT got downgraded today on lower potash consumption forecasts. who really knows whats going to happen but i ended up selling it today. it looked like AGU's buyback program kicked in with the shares down 6%. i sold on the pop for 3.5% loss. good company but i think there's too much risk right now in it.


----------



## LBCfan

fatcat said:


> AGU is also down nicely, it pays half the dividend that POT does but is a much more well diversified company whose fortunes don't rise and fall with potash


True, Agu's fortune rises and falls with nitrogen.


----------



## fatcat

LBCfan said:


> True, Agu's fortune rises and falls with nitrogen.


not true, nitrogen accounts for 1/3rd of their earnings, they also have retail stores, they sell seeds and all kinds of products for crops, they are a much better diversified company


----------



## blin10

fatcat said:


> not true, nitrogen accounts for 1/3rd of their earnings, they also have retail stores, they sell seeds and all kinds of products for crops, they are a much better diversified company


agu is better diversified but you're paying for it in the share price valuation and dividend is lower


----------



## fatcat

blin10 said:


> agu is better diversified but you're paying for it in the share price valuation and dividend is lower


happy to do so (though i own neither since i am just sitting commodities out atm) based on what i have seen agu do over what pot has done lately ... i appreciate the ballast that diversification provides and also from what i read about potash, it could remain low for some time to come, even a very long time ... i am glad to have those retail stores and seed business versus a pure play on potash


----------



## besmartrich

Wanted to buy it when it was $35-$36 but did not have fund at the time. I am glad I had to wait. It is being sold around $27.70 now. This is a good opportunity to pick up Potash however there will be a better opportunity in the near future until the bad news/forecast is completely digested through to the stock price.


----------



## Pluto

It's getting tempting to buy POT. 

But in the context of the general market, I'm going to wait. I want to see the challenges of the general market come to some resolution. The obvious challenge is declining revenues. CAT announcing layoffs, auto market looks like it peaked and rolling over, and on an on. General conditions doesn't look good, and I suspect will get worse. Stocks will respond accordingly. 

So, getting back to POT, I sold mine back around 42, and looking to pick it up again, but I'm going to wait for a clear base, and for the general conditions to play out a bit more.


----------



## MrMatt

What about CF?

Myself I just bought COW a while ago.


----------



## LBCfan

fatcat said:


> not true, nitrogen accounts for 1/3rd of their earnings, they also have retail stores, they sell seeds and all kinds of products for crops, they are a much better diversified company


Nitrogen is something they produce. Potash is something they produce. They do not produce (a significant amount) of phosphate and are thinking of exiting that business. They do not produce (either via breeding, GMO etc) seeds. They do not produce herbicides, fungicides or other "products for crops". They buy the other stuff from others and resell it, kinda like Home Depot.

While AGU is not really a company that can/should be compared to POT, the effect fertilizer production has on AGU rises and falls with N.


----------



## pastorash

I started in initiate a position in POT last month around 35. It's a long term hold so I'm considering putting more in now that it's hovering around 26/27. Anyone else looking to pull the trigger here soon?


----------



## godblsmnymkr

pastorash said:


> I started in initiate a position in POT last month around 35. It's a long term hold so I'm considering putting more in now that it's hovering around 26/27. Anyone else looking to pull the trigger here soon?


technically its oversold, but it has sliced through any support. you might see a bounce here, but i wouldnt buy it. looks like a lot more downside from here.


----------



## lost in space

this from the Motley fool

Is Pot's dividend safe?

General point of view, in the short term yes, longer term the outlook is mixed. 

After this and FAP, PGF and Artis I'm going to be slowly moving over to ETFs. With one like XEI while the price may drop I don't need to worry about dividend cuts.


----------



## doctrine

Potash is really taking a beating here, isn't it? Down to essentially 2007 levels. Potash prices must be really in the dumps.


----------



## fatcat

it seems to be a lot more than potash, a few years back we saw india and china rising and hear all these stories about mega-growth and limited supplies of agricultural materials and base and precious metals and peak oil and so on and that seems to have had the effect of bringing every miner and his cousin out of the woodwork and into the business because we see plentiful, even overflowing supplies of all of these things


----------



## John_49

Picked up a few shares.


----------



## al42

Should help the share price today.

PotashCorp Withdraws K+S Proposal

Canada NewsWire

SASKATOON, Oct. 4, 2015

Symbol: POT
Listed: TSX, NYSE

SASKATOON, Oct. 4, 2015 /CNW/ - Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (PotashCorp) announced that it has withdrawn its proposal to negotiate a transaction with K+S Aktiengesellschaft (K+S) (SDF: GR).

The private proposal of €41 per share on May 31, 2015 sought to bring together complementary assets that would have enhanced financial resources and allowed the combined company and its stakeholders to benefit from greater diversification across geographies and products. It reflected a 59 percent premium to the volume weighted average of K+S' share price during the prior 12 months and included comprehensive, credible commitments to K+S' employees, unions and communities.

"Our proposal reflected full and fair value, and was predicated on a collaborative process with access to customary due diligence," said Jochen Tilk, PotashCorp President and CEO. "Since that time, challenging macroeconomic conditions have contributed to a significant decline of global commodity and equity markets, with potash peer stocks down almost 40 percent*. In light of these market conditions and a lack of engagement by K+S management, we have concluded that continued pursuit of a combination is no longer in the best interests of our shareholders."

PotashCorp will continue to focus on its disciplined growth strategy. With a strong balance sheet, top-tier assets and a track record of operational excellence, PotashCorp believes it is well positioned to capture future opportunities.

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/news/pres...rp-withdraws-k-s-proposal#Ia4FyfL6q4c2TzkZ.99


----------



## SpendLessEarnMore

$41? Greedy people. K+S shares nosedived today $7.65 to $23.35. A 25% drop.


----------



## Jungle

What is the outlook like for POT at this point, I feel like the dividend could be at risk if sales/pot prices continue to slide..
I want to add but unsure of the risk at the moment.


----------



## 6811

FROM TUESDAY'S Globe and Mail: 

"Bets against Potash Corp. shares are surging. Here's why

During the two weeks ending Oct. 31, short selling in shares in Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. soared by 15.3 million, the largest increase on the Toronto Stock Exchange (POT-T). This jump doubled short interest to 30.4-million shares, signalling a substantial escalation in bearish sentiment for the Saskatoon-based supplier of potash, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Potash Corp. also trades on the New York Stock Exchange (POT-N). If short selling there is added to the TSX position, the total comes to more than 42 million (estimated), the highest level in 2015, so far.

The catalyst for the bearish breakout was the release of the company’s third-quarter financial report at the end of October. Ahead of the report’s release, short sellers likely raised their bets in anticipation of the company missing the consensus earnings forecast from analysts. After all, the company fell short of analysts’ projections in three of the past four quarters, according to Zacks.com.

As it turned out, the third-quarter report (in U.S. dollars) did come in below expectations, triggering a sell-off in the stock. Profits slipped by 10 per cent to 34 cents a share, missing Zacks.com’s consensus estimate of 38 cents a share.

Management provided additional fodder for the short sellers by announcing a downward revision in the outlook for its markets, and a cut of 500,000 tonnes in potash output. Profit projections for 2015 were also lowered.

In short, Potash Corp. is facing a number of headwinds:

· sluggish economic growth is lowering demand for fertilizers globally

· the market is oversupplied due to new mines opening in response to past high prices for potash

· a new Chinese value-added tax makes potash more expensive to its farmers

· changes in the taxation of Saskatchewan producers impacts profits and competitiveness

· lower prices and reduced acreages for corn in North America; dry crop conditions in India

· pricing power has been weakened by the 2013 dissolution of the potash cartel (members include Belarusian Potash Co., OAO Uralkali and Canadian firms).

Potash Corp. took steps toward reigning in excess supply earlier this year by launching a takeover bid for K+S Aktiengesellschaft. However, in the face of stiff resistance from the company’s executives, along with deteriorating market conditions, the bid was withdrawn in early October. Short sellers were likely emboldened by this failed attempt at reducing competition levels in the industry.

The year 2015 has been good to the short sellers: Potash Corp.’s share price has cratered by about a third since January. But the world’s largest integrated fertilizer company has a competitive edge thanks to its low cost structure and strong balance sheet. Its stock could begin to receive support from value investors attracted to valuations near trough levels, and a dividend yielding more than 7 per cent.

S&P Capital IQ analyst Christopher Muir recently upgraded his recommendation on Potash Corp. from “hold” to “buy”. He sees it “benefiting from increased demand for fertilizers over the long term, driven by a combination of population growth and improved diets worldwide.

Potash Corp. “is better positioned than most peers to meet this increased demand on account of the location of its reserves and generally lower capital costs tied to its capacity expansion plans,” adds Mr. Muir. “However, in the short term, we see challenges relating to a weakening overseas economy.”"


----------



## My Own Advisor

Not time to buy? Or wait for the dividend cut, then buy?


----------



## livewell

I don't see any real pressure on Potash to lower their dividend (Famous last words). Their fundamentals look pretty sound even with the currently depressed earnings (Reasonable debt levels, current ratio above 1 (1.1) dividend payout ratio 0.7). With current PE ~11 and P/S ~2.5 this looks to me to be a good time to buy if you accept that their business is cyclical and the current Potash market is going through a cyclical low.


----------



## avrex

I don't know if we've reached a bottom, but it looks like it's undervalued now.

Last week, I wend ahead and bought POT.TO @26.40.

Here's hoping the dividend doesn't get cut.


----------



## KaeJS

The only thing that scares me is their EPS has fallen 4 years in a row. Just like their stock has...

Last quarter, they only made $0.34/share but paid out $0.38/share...

If things continue this way, that is just going to either rack up debt or they will need to cut the dividend.


----------



## amack081

livewell said:


> I don't see any real pressure on Potash to lower their dividend (Famous last words). Their fundamentals look pretty sound even with the currently depressed earnings (Reasonable debt levels, current ratio above 1 (1.1) dividend payout ratio 0.7). With current PE ~11 and P/S ~2.5 this looks to me to be a good time to buy if you accept that their business is cyclical and the current Potash market is going through a cyclical low.


This was my reasoning as well. I do have a position of POT and I believe that the dividend will continue and the market is cyclical.


----------



## SpendLessEarnMore

[email protected] (Name: POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN) announced a cash dividend with ex-dividend date of 20160112 and payable date of 20160204. The declared cash rate is USD 0.38.


----------



## leeder

I recall an interview with the CEO, who said that he's making it his priority to maintain the dividend. I'm sure he'll maintain it, but I don't see the dividend growing until demand for potash rises. It probably won't drop unless potash prices get ridiculously low.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I think I'll be buying once I get more $$ inside my RRSP or TFSA. Price is nice and low.


----------



## gibor365

SpendLessEarnMore said:


> [email protected] (Name: POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN) announced a cash dividend with ex-dividend date of 20160112 and payable date of 20160204. The declared cash rate is USD 0.38.


It will be interesting to see if they gonna increase dividends next Q ... imho, they gonna increase to 0.385  like EMR did


----------



## londoncalling

When I worked in industry I spent a lot of my time working at the potash mines of Saskatchewan namely, Agrium, Mosaic and PotashCorp. This industry goes through peaks and valleys in production and sales like clockwork (Share price will follow suit just a little more erratically). Right now all of these companies are facing headwinds due to overproduction and decreased in demand as well as threat of future producers and all the other things mentioned up thread. If previous cycles are an indicator then I would agree that this company is undervalued. However, commodity/resource cycles are easier to predict than specific sector/market cycles. For me, I added awhile back but am considering adding some more to lower my ACB. I will not comment on the dividend as I don't want to be the one who says it is safe and then the company decides I am a liar. ; P

As an added note. Historically, China typically renews its contracts with potash producers in December. As another tidbit they prefer the red potash over the white. The difference between the two is essentially nothing aside from the discoloration being caused by iron oxidization of the product. 

I am hoping to add between now and Xmas and have a bid in place and will see if it hits. Plan to hold, add, increase and decrease this position for years as it cycles.

Cheers


----------



## My Own Advisor

gibor said:


> It will be interesting to see if they gonna increase dividends next Q ... imho, they gonna increase to 0.385  like EMR did


A raise is a raise no?


----------



## My Own Advisor

POT continues to slide. I think I'll buy some on the way down. Below 52-week low. Good price. 

Others buying?


----------



## mrPPincer

I'm thinking of adding a little.


----------



## LBCfan

8% divy is looking good. I think it's better than 70% not to be cut. I'll be in after it falls a bit more.


----------



## mrPPincer

mrPPincer said:


> I'm thinking of adding a little.


^done..
added 100 shares this morning @52-week low of 24.67 CDN.

Dropped a little lower but now it's up a bit again; I didn't expect to catch the bottom, it's anybody's guess as to how much lower it could go yet, and for how long, but I'm happy adding here (bought first 200 shares @$30 in 2013).


----------



## pastorash

I've added a bit with my meager cash, will do so in the new year until the position becomes at the weight I want it. Again, long term play here, expect to benefit from it in 5-10 years, and if the dividend stay puts for a few years, so much the better. Not holding my breath on the dividend staying the same though.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

just a few percent away from 2009 lows.


----------



## Synergy

My Own Advisor said:


> POT continues to slide. I think I'll buy some on the way down. Below 52-week low. Good price.
> 
> Others buying?


I plan to buy more. I like the US$ dividends. Trying to accumulate US currency for vacation $ and / or to transfer to my US RRSP to buy more US stocks. Tax loss selling is just beginning so I'll hold off for another few wks.


----------



## My Own Advisor

In for 60 shares. Will buy more to have enough to DRIP in early 2016.


----------



## avrex

Good buy @MOA.
I think it's very undervalued. A good time to get in.


----------



## LBCfan

Synergy said:


> I plan to buy more. I like the US$ dividends. Trying to accumulate US currency for vacation $ and / or to transfer to my US RRSP to buy more US stocks. Tax loss selling is just beginning so I'll hold off for another few wks.


If you are Canadian, you won't receive the dividend in actual US$. You will receive C$ at the current exchange rate.


----------



## Eclectic12

Is there something forcing the conversion from USD to CAD in a USD account?

I thought I'd read some posts saying people had requested their broker journal the stock into their USD account and from that point onewards, the USD dividends stayed in USD.


Cheers


----------



## My Own Advisor

I (will) get my dividends in USD; USD $$ RRSP. I buy CDN owned companies that are interlisted, on the CDN side and then journal them over to USD-side. 

POT is one of about a dozen companies that pay dividends in USD $$.


----------



## the_apprentice

LBCfan said:


> If you are Canadian, you won't receive the dividend in actual US$. You will receive C$ at the current exchange rate.


That is not true as MOA just stated.

Some brokerages (TD for example) automatically convert the US dividend amount to CAD. Others (Questrade for example) will deposit the US dividend amount into your account.


I've been watching closely and looking to add to this as well to lower my ACB. Hoping to add a small amount next week.


----------



## Eclectic12

Are you saying that TDDI, after the journal of POT moves to the USD account will then convert back to CAD?

This makes no sense and is not what I recall being posted.


Cheers

*PS*

Now someone who has a TDDI RRSP and has not requested a USD RRSP account be setup, I can see the the automatic conversion to CAD happening as the RRSP is CAD.


----------



## the_apprentice

Regardless of whether you purchase POT in USD or CAD, you will be paid out in USD. You're brokerage will automatically convert that USD dividend to CAD only if you do not have a USD RRSP account.

_Just found out that TD has USD RRSP's as of earlier this year._


----------



## peterk

Eclectic12 said:


> Are you saying that TDDI, after the journal of POT moves to the USD account will then convert back to CAD?


No, POT on the TSX pays it's dividend in USD and some brokers convert it automatically to CAD. I wouldn't think that POT on the NYSE held in USD would pay a USD dividend that would convert back to CAD, at any broker.


----------



## Eclectic12

So as mentioned in post # 524 ... despite the broker automatically converting the USD dividend to CAD, USD may still be on the table as a choice for the investor.

I agree regarding POT bought on the NYSE staying in USD. I was more interested in what appeared to imply a TDDI customer had CAD as their only choice for POT bought on the TSX.


Cheers


----------



## Synergy

LBCfan said:


> If you are Canadian, you won't receive the dividend in actual US$. You will receive C$ at the current exchange rate.


I do. I journal the shares over to my US account (non-reg) and have been receiving US$ dividends for quite some time now (TD).


----------



## spongewen

do you know what happens if i keep the shares in US account (TFSA)? Do i need to pay withholding tax?



Synergy said:


> I do. I journal the shares over to my US account (non-reg) and have been receiving US$ dividends for quite some time now (TD).


----------



## Eclectic12

I don't believe there would be a TFSA withholding tax as POT is a Canadian company and the TFSA is Canadian tax free.

Paying dividends in a different currency from what I understand, does not change the tax treatment of the investment.


Cheers


----------



## HaroldCrump

^ above is correct interpretation.

I have held several Canadian companies paying dividends in USD in both registered and non-registered accounts over the years.
Both CAD$ as well as USD$ denominated accounts.

The currency treatment is totally independent from the tax treatment.
Currency treatment depends on the brokerage and the type of account.
Tax treatment depends on residency/nationality of the investor.

Assuming, of course, the brokerage knows what it's doing.
The vast majority of Canadian brokerages handle this correctly - can't speak about small, private brokerages.
My own experience has been with 3 of them - TD, iTrade, and Questrade.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Eclectic12 said:


> I don't believe there would be a TFSA withholding tax as POT is a Canadian company and the TFSA is Canadian tax free.
> 
> Paying dividends in a different currency from what I understand, does not change the tax treatment of the investment.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Agreed. Canadian company, no change in tax treatment.


----------



## Jungle

I have questrade TFSA, settlement in the currency it's in. So USD is supposed to stay USD.. CAD stays CAD..

However, I received my dividends in CAD. I had DRIP on. It purchased shares off the TSE again with CAD dividends. 

I suspect questrade is paying out in CAD 

I didn't care because I don't want USD in my TFSA anyway. The dollar difference is to small for me to get worried about.


----------



## Eclectic12

The only way I can guess that Questrade would keep USD is if the POT stock was journaled over to a USD TFSA. Then maybe the USD dividends could default to buying more shares from the USD dividends on a US exchange.

It would seem that since the DRIP is buying Pot shares on the TSE (CAD exchange), it is likely held in a CAD TFSA ... which would force USD dividends to be converted to CAD in order to buy shares.


I seem to recall other Questrade clients posting that they were able to select USD or CAD for the dividends.


Cheers


----------



## LBCfan

My Own Advisor said:


> I (will) get my dividends in USD; USD $$ RRSP. I buy CDN owned companies that are interlisted, on the CDN side and then journal them over to USD-side.
> 
> POT is one of about a dozen companies that pay dividends in USD $$.


I stand corrected, at least as far as POT goes. My POT holdings today are 950 shares registered in my name with CIBC Mellon. I got them as a POT employee at IPO. Was allowed 50 shares for $1. After splits I own 950.

There are interlisted shares that pay in the currency of your address. I thought they all did. Check this: http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=117861

Mea Culpa


----------



## My Own Advisor

That's a great deal of POT LBCfan!


----------



## humble_pie

LBCfan said:


> There are interlisted shares that pay in the currency of your address. I thought they all did. Check this: http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=117861



no, the idea that they pay "in the currency of your address" is an urban myth. 

i'm surprised to see some of the false notions perambulating around in this thread, even at this late date, even after several persons in cmf forum have laboured long & hard, across several years now, to deliver the accurate if somewhat tricky information on how to avoid brokers' FX fees on canadian dividends paid out in USD (there are not "a dozen" companies doing this, btw. There are at least 21 companies at present & more are going to follow this practice.)

first, all brokers have their individual system quirks. Part of the art of making sure your USD dividends from canadian companies get delivered without FX fees consists of Learning to Understand your Broker.

some brokers go by "settlement currency." This means that if investor starts out buying potash in USD on new york, his settlement currency is USD. If investor commences by buying potash in CAD on toronto, his settlement currency is CAD.

my understanding is that Questrade largely follows the settlement currency practice. I'm not a questrade client, but my further understanding is that clients can change "settlement currency" according to a selection tab, after they've made a purchase. It's also possible that, at questrade, clients have to phone to request a journal of stock.

certainly BMO is a broker that requires a phone request to journal stock from one settlement currency to the other. There is no online system to accomplish this at BMO. I would imagine roybank functions the same, as they both use the same ADP mainframe system.

the TD system is a little more clear, in that the underlying mainframe ISM distinguishes more deeply between a US account & a canadian account. However, TD clients do have to phone to make sure their canadian-stocks-paying-USD-dividends are being held in USD accounts, ie such stocks need to be journalled into US accounts if they were not purchased there to begin with.

other brokers using the ISM mainframe system are likely to closely resemble the TD. If there are any CIBC investors reading this thread, please know that CIBC converts at beneficial rates in registered accounts only. Dividends converted in CIBC cash & margin non-registered accounts are subject to FX fees ranging up to 2%.

yes it's complicated. yes it pays to be ultra careful & precise about all the tiny details.

posters such as the financial wisdom group have likely gotten the idea of "where the investor lives" from Potash's policy for registered shareholders only. Nearly all of us here in cmf forum are *not* registered shareholders, we are street beneficial owners holding our shares in street name at the various brokers.

obviously a company knows where its registered shareholders are residing, because it's mailing out the dividend cheques! Potash, in particular, is a company that has a very fair & generous policy regarding its dividend currency conversions for its registered shareholders living in canada only. For these registered shareholders, the Potash treasury department will convert each USD dividend at favourable spot or Bank of Canada rates.

however, the vast majority of POT shareholders nowadays are street shareholders holding shares at brokers. They do *not* benefit from the above-mentioned procedure, which is reserved for the ever-shrinking number of registered shareholders.

a while ago i did notice that a few posters over at financial wisdom have gotten the information re handling of registered shareholder dividends VS broker handling of street dividends quite mixed up.


----------



## Eclectic12

humble_pie said:


> LBCfan said:
> 
> 
> 
> There are interlisted shares that pay in the currency of your address.
> I thought they all did ...
> 
> 
> 
> ... the idea that they pay "in the currency of your address" is an urban myth ...
> posters such as the financial wisdom group have likely gotten the idea of "where the investor lives" from Potash's policy for registered shareholders only. Nearly all of us here in cmf forum are *not* registered shareholders, we are street beneficial owners holding our shares in street name at the various brokers.
Click to expand...

The registered shareholders where the company knows the address seems to me to be the place the address might come into play.

For a regular broker that registers the shares in the street name - I agrew with HP and I doubt the broker wants to forward their client list to the individual companies when the shares are already registered in the broker's name.


Either way ... for the sake of argument, say POT knows the TDDI investor has a Canadian address or uses the broker's Canadian address to trigger a CAD dividend payment instead of the USD one. Why in this case, does the TDDI investor see a line item saying "USD converted at rate to CAD"? 

If POT is really paying the broker CAD based on a Canadian address then there is no need for a USD to CAD currency conversion, n'est pas?


I would think any broker documenting a currency conversion for the dividends is by definition documenting that POT *has* paid a USD dividend to the Canadian investor with a Canadian address.


Bottom line seems to me that the "currency based on address" scenario is going to be the smaller pool of registered share holders. 


Cheers


----------



## mrPPincer

Just phoned in to TD to journal my 100 shiny new shares over to join their buddies in the USD side.

Won't be buying any more, but with the low share prices we have now it should drip 6 shares, maybe even 7 every quarter (if it drops a little more), that's assuming they don't cut the dividend ofc.

With only 200 shares or so and the price bouncing around the $40 CAD area, it was only dripping 1 or 2 shares, so there is a silver lining here


----------



## My Own Advisor

mrPPincer said:


> Just phoned in to TD to journal my 100 shiny new shares over to join their buddies in the USD side.
> 
> Won't be buying any more, but with the low share prices we have now it should drip 6 shares, maybe even 7 every quarter (if it drops a little more), that's assuming they don't cut the dividend ofc.
> 
> With only 200 shares or so and the price bouncing around the $40 CAD area, it was only dripping 1 or 2 shares, so there is a silver lining here


I've only got 60 shares and looking to buy another 60-100 in the USD side of RRSP in the New Year. I want to get it DRIPping a couple shares as well.


----------



## Jungle

What a spectacular drop, I'm down 30% now since Sept purchase. This is making my TFSA underperform the TSX right now. Dividend yield almost 9% now


----------



## cashinstinct

Reminds me of why I index. I thought about buying this in September... 

(I lost value on my ETFs too since September, but not 30%).


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted


----------



## The_Tosser

Ag Driver said:


> I am very tempted to buy in at these levels. It looks like quite the sale price to me.


you're not one of those buy low, sell high, type of guys are you?


----------



## Ag Driver

Deleted


----------



## My Own Advisor

I'll be buying more in 2016, especially at these or lower prices. Just trying to save cash now.


----------



## Jungle

Problem is, POT is a special case right now because potash prices keep falling. Outlook is lowered and it's over supplied. Theres a good chance the dividend will be cut. I get the sense the market is pricing this in.


----------



## mrPPincer

^Yeah the situation could be a bit tenuous right now, my understanding is that potash corp has cut production to help manage the over-supply, & being the biggest player they should hopefully be able to ride it out ok, but it seems they are the ones that are taking the pain & as you say, hopefully this is already priced in.

I'm tempted to add if it really goes south from here but I'll try to not do so till after a dividend cut if it happens.
Have to admit I don't know anything about commodity cycles so idk if the down cycle could last years or even decades.
I do know people will need food though, so..


----------



## londoncalling

Potash and fertilizer cycles do not last decades. Most NA farms continuous crop and cannot go more than a season or two without having to put nutrients back in the soil. Asian farms cannot go too long either. Unlike oil, supply and demand are more cyclical than constant. People can cut back on energy consumption but potash tends to be a yes or no purchase. At some point sales will occur. Potash sales cycles to India and China are easy to predict. It typically goes from producers maxing output and storage while overseas customers holdout for best price. Currently producers have full barns and production is very limited. As contracts expire each side tries to hold out for the best price. Each contract is a game of chicken waiting to see who will give in first. The key difference is that the "cartel" with the Russians is no longer in place. This puts the foreign customers at an advantage. Another headwind is the increase to supply capacity. Agrium has recently completed its expansion at Vanscoy. Potash Corp has gone through expansions at most of its mines in Saskatchewan the last few years. Mosaic has trimmed production and Capex. As a result the construction of the BHP mine at Jansen is pretty much at a standstill. Most of the operational mines have recently issued forced holidays and seasonal layoffs. Nothing on a scale large enough to draw media attention but definitely noticeable to those that work in the industry or live in the communities. The K+S Legacy may come into production at just the right time. As always, I added to my POT too early but am content to hold.

Cheers


----------



## rav1

I am also interested in POT but don't know how far this will fall. Anyone with experience in the industry who knows any major milestones ahead that could prop up it or dig it deeper may be?


----------



## godblsmnymkr

http://seekingalpha.com/news/2988456-earnings-outlook-looks-shaky-for-agrium-and-potash-analyst-says

*

Earnings estimates for Agrium (AGU +0.9%) and Potash Corp. (POT +2.9%) are trimmed by 10%-13% for 2016 and 2017 at Macquarie, which expects agricultural commodities to continue to suffer from oversupply and weak demand in 2016.

Macquarie anticipates that the poor economic health of farmers around the world will lead to limited consumption of nitrogen fertilizers and a sharp pullback for potash.

The firm also cuts its stock price target for the companies, to $95 from $105 for AGU and to $17 from $21 at POT.*

just like oil and really any commodity right now, I would implore you all not to try to catch a falling knife. trying to call bottoms will get your hands chopped off. you dont need to call the bottom. you will make a ton of $ if you catch 60% of the move. 
yes this might be a good entry point @ 2009 lows, but the risk/reward here is higher on the risk side.


----------



## LBCfan

rav1 said:


> I am also interested in POT but don't know how far this will fall. Anyone with experience in the industry who knows any major milestones ahead that could prop up it or dig it deeper may be?


I worked in the industry for over 20 years although I've been retired for close to 10. That however, doesn't mean I can predict when the good times will return. Other than announced expansions and K+S, I don't see a lot of added supply. Demand will follow crop prices. A flood in a large mine would be a black swan on the upside. Other than that who knows.

That said, inho only, I'm tempted as I think the dividend is reasonably safe. If the price drops to a 10% dividend, I'll be buying but I won't sell the farm to finance it.


----------



## My Own Advisor

The stock is down 50% from 52-week high, so maybe a falling butter knife. Sure, it could go lower, but when most other Canadian blue-chip stocks are down 50% (i.e., CDN banks after a financial crisis) it's usually time to buy. 

I won't be backing up the truck, I do not have enough funds to do so anyhow, but I hope to be buying another 60-100 shares in the new year.


----------



## rav1

LBCfan said:


> I worked in the industry for over 20 years although I've been retired for close to 10. That however, doesn't mean I can predict when the good times will return. Other than announced expansions and K+S, I don't see a lot of added supply. Demand will follow crop prices. A flood in a large mine would be a black swan on the upside. Other than that who knows.
> 
> That said, inho only, I'm tempted as I think the dividend is reasonably safe. If the price drops to a 10% dividend, I'll be buying but I won't sell the farm to finance it.


Industry experience was only mentioned coz sometimes it can help make an informed decision. Of course i understand that it doesn't give anyone a crystal ball  So just want to understand that why do u think that the dividend is reasonably safe? Cheers.


----------



## besmartrich

My Own Advisor said:


> The stock is down 50% from 52-week high, so maybe a falling butter knife. Sure, it could go lower, but when most other Canadian blue-chip stocks are down 50% (i.e., CDN banks after a financial crisis) it's usually time to buy.
> 
> I won't be backing up the truck, I do not have enough funds to do so anyhow, but I hope to be buying another 60-100 shares in the new year.


Yup. It is really cheap right now. I recently bought 5K worth of it and may think of adding more. This extremely profitable cash generating machine should come back up.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

I think for POT or really an commodity producer to start putting in a real bottom, you need to see the USD start to decline and hold those declines. until then, i would avoid all commodities. I could be wrong but its no coincidence that the USD started to get strong at the same time as oil's decline in '14.


----------



## DividendLuvr

I initiated a small position (100 shares) in this today.


----------



## treva84

What do you guys think of the likelihood of a dividend cut? It seems revenues and free cash flow has been dropping for the last 4 years and the current pay out ratio seems unsustainable high. If the headwinds continue (and they seem likely too) will they cut their dividend?


----------



## My Own Advisor

I will say a 50% dividend cut is on the horizon.


----------



## cdnceo

down another ~3.4% at noon. this is getting ridiculous. time to buy.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Yup, time to buy below 52-week low and down so much!!


----------



## humble_pie

idk, potash is about to negotiate a new multi-year fertilizer contract with numero uno customer China, it's thought china will bid low, why would one be buying these days? 

plus the POT dividend history is unstable, there was a mega-increase a few years ago which they could negate at any time by rolling the divvie back down again. At present levels the potash dividend is unsustainable imho.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

cdnceo said:


> down another ~3.4% at noon. this is getting ridiculous. time to buy.


its your funeral. you need to wait on a dividend cut first. this is a pretty orderly sell off meaning there are still plenty of sellers left. you need to see capitulatory volume to clean out all the weak hands before buying here.


----------



## blin10

godblsmnymkr said:


> its your funeral. you need to wait on a dividend cut first. this is a pretty orderly sell off meaning there are still plenty of sellers left. you need to see capitulatory volume to clean out all the weak hands before buying here.


seems like you know the future, shouldn't you have couple of billions by now and be on a yacht somewhere?


----------



## treva84

blin10 said:


> seems like you know the future, shouldn't you have couple of billions by now and be on a yacht somewhere?


Let's play nice and keep it civil 

I want to buy POT, I'm trying to decide when - on the one hand, presently there is a nice opportunity especially given today's change. On the other hand, if a dividend cut is coming (which seems likely, but isn't as guaranteed as today's current pricing) I want to wait for that (to see what it will be cut to) before buying in.

Thinking about it further, why would I buy this stock? It would be as a value play, long term. Thus, does it really matter what happens to the dividend in the short term? I feel like waiting would make me "feel better" about owning it, but 5-10 years from now would it really matter?


----------



## My Own Advisor

I hear you treva84. 

POT represents <1% of my holdings, and I see this company prospering long-term, decades from now. They have a global footprint and as far as I know, their products are necessary as long as we want to eat real food on this planet.

POT is 50% off 52-week high. If Canadian banks were priced that way, most keen investors would be buying them (i.e., recall financial crisis).

Is this a risky play for me? Maybe, I don't know. Time will only tell. But with this being <1% of my portfolio I'm not too worried.

Even with more POT in my portfolio, I'm also index investing more for extra long-term security. That's my take.


----------



## treva84

My Own Advisor said:


> I hear you treva84.
> 
> POT represents <1% of my holdings, and I see this company prospering long-term, decades from now. They have a global footprint and as far as I know, their products are necessary as long as we want to eat real food on this planet.
> 
> POT is 50% off 52-week high. If Canadian banks were priced that way, most keen investors would be buying them (i.e., recall financial crisis).
> 
> Is this a risky play for me? Maybe, I don't know. Time will only tell. But with this being <1% of my portfolio I'm not too worried.
> 
> Even with more POT in my portfolio, I'm also index investing more for extra long-term security. That's my take.


So after consideration I decided to NOT buy POT. Even though I think it's attractively priced for a probable long term recovery, I've decided to err on the side of caution. The fact that the dividend is unsustainable is a sign of financial instability, and I shouldn't invest in a company I think is financially unstable. Also in the last few years they have been massively hiking their dividend even though earnings and cash flows have been decreasing. With the benefit of hindsight, I think this shows poor management decisions. 

Maybe in 10 years I'll look at the share price of $80 and go "man, I shoulda bought POT in 2016!" but today I'll let my conservative side win.


----------



## Eclectic12

I'm not sure why holding off now means it will be "man, I shoulda bought POT in 2016" ... there's 11+ months left for the situation to be more to your liking.


Cheers


----------



## NorthKC

That sounds like the right call. I would not be comfortable buying this either.


----------



## treva84

Eclectic12 said:


> I'm not sure why holding off now means it will be "man, I shoulda bought POT in 2016" ... there's 11+ months left for the situation to be more to your liking.
> 
> 
> Cheers


You are indeed correct, I can revisit it later in the year. I just suspect things will get worse before they get better.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Nothing wrong with saying no or not right now treva84. Lots of time to buy and it's not like I'm backing up the truck.


----------



## Eclectic12

treva84 said:


> You are indeed correct, I can revisit it later in the year. I just suspect things will get worse before they get better.


My point is that if you see a bargain in say 2017 in POT ... you can still buy.

It is only if you lose focus then look back when it's too expensive that it will be "man, I shoulda ... ". 
[ Something I've done BTW. ]


Cheers


----------



## godblsmnymkr

treva84 said:


> So after consideration I decided to NOT buy POT. Even though I think it's attractively priced for a probable long term recovery, I've decided to err on the side of caution. The fact that the dividend is unsustainable is a sign of financial instability, and I shouldn't invest in a company I think is financially unstable. Also in the last few years they have been massively hiking their dividend even though earnings and cash flows have been decreasing. With the benefit of hindsight, I think this shows poor management decisions.
> 
> Maybe in 10 years I'll look at the share price of $80 and go "man, I shoulda bought POT in 2016!" but today I'll let my conservative side win.


most likely the right decision. 
i really do not understand the fascination on this board with trying to call bottoms on falling knives. i doubt anyone here has the skill to do so. like i've said before its much safer and almost a 100% chance of being more profitable in the long run if you just catch 60% of the move not be greedy and try for the whole thing. 
i'm honestly out of my element in this industry, but for a long term hold i much prefer Agrium as they are the most diversified company in the space and much more suited to a long term buy and hold then something as sensitive to a commodity price such as POT.


----------



## pastorash

Yesterday I completed a small position in POT @ $22.75, averaging down to about $26 (sigh). Time will tell if I made a wise move. While I expect nothing from the stock in the next year or two, trusting it will be a great long term hold in my RRSP. 

Now it's time to decide what to get into next. Considering taking a gain on KO to fund some Cdn. stock purchases, KO is my only US position I'm uncomfortable with over the long haul, though enjoying these currency enhanced dividends for now.


----------



## LBCfan

treva84 said:


> So after consideration I decided to NOT buy POT. Even though I think it's attractively priced for a probable long term recovery, I've decided to err on the side of caution.


Certainly not an irrational decision.


treva84 said:


> The fact that the dividend is unsustainable is a sign of financial instability, and I shouldn't invest in a company I think is financially unstable.


Perhaps rather than simply stating "the dividend is unsustainable" you should explain why? If not to us, at least to yourself. I hope your reason is not "I read it on the Internet".

You certainly shouldn't invest in a company you consider financially unstable. Why did you ever consider it? 


treva84 said:


> Also in the last few years they have been massively hiking their dividend even though earnings and cash flows have been decreasing.


Earnings, yes. Are you really sure about cash flow?


----------



## treva84

LBCfan said:


> Certainly not an irrational decision.
> 
> Perhaps rather than simply stating "the dividend is unsustainable" you should explain why? If not to us, at least to yourself. I hope your reason is not "I read it on the Internet".


The Q3 pay out ratio was about 80%. But I believe for the previous 2 quarters the pay out ratio was greater than 100% and POT had to dip into savings to pay it. 



> You certainly shouldn't invest in a company you consider financially unstable. Why did you ever consider it?


Mostly because of the possibility of a great long term price recovery. So, in other words, greed. 




> Earnings, yes. Are you really sure about cash flow?


I'll admit I haven't read all of the quarterly reports and attempted to evaluate cash flow. Rather, I checked Value Line and they have a "cash flow / share" metric which has been decreasing - 3.12, 2.96, 2.70 (million $ / share) in 2012, 2013, 2014.


----------



## AltaRed

The quarterlys partly tell the story.... generally decreasing metrics every quarter. Important to look at Balance Sheet and Cash Flow statements for near term viability, and Income Statement longer term to see how good/bad they deploy capital. For a summary snapshot, use TMX Money http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=POT and work through the Financials tab.


----------



## My Own Advisor

That's what I look at as well AR, focusing specifically on the cash flow year-over-year, not just this stock but many others.


----------



## lost in space

I'm a bit confused about this, EPS shows 2.27 but the dividend is 1.52 a share or am I missing something.

Edit, the 9% yield is a worry



mrPPincer said:


> Just phoned in to TD to journal my 100 shiny new shares over to join their buddies in the USD side.
> 
> Won't be buying any more, but with the low share prices we have now it should drip 6 shares, maybe even 7 every quarter (if it drops a little more), that's assuming they don't cut the dividend ofc.
> 
> With only 200 shares or so and the price bouncing around the $40 CAD area, it was only dripping 1 or 2 shares, so there is a silver lining here


How exactly would that work, you'd buy the US listed stock?


----------



## AltaRed

It is the same stock, just listed on 2 exchanges. Same CUSIP


----------



## humble_pie

lost in space said:


> How exactly would that work, you'd buy the US listed stock?



beware, beware. Avoiding FX fees on USD dividends paid by some 23 or 24 canadian companies is a relatively sophisticated technique that has been well-advanced here in cmf forum.

however, lately it has surfaced that the system - ie holding those USD dividend payors in USD accounts - is breaking down. It's a complicated picture.

there have been enough complaints to IIROC that IIROC is pushing both the brokers & the companies to treat retail investors more fairly & transparently.

the result - for now - is a total mess. Some companies are converting their USD dividends to CAD in their treasury departments, then sending bulk dividend payments in CAD to brokers according to how many shares each broker would tell them are beneficially held by canadian residents.

however, it's not required that companies do this (ie convert dividend amounts at favourable spot rates in their own treasury departments at their own cost.) As a result, a few companies are, but most aren't. The identity of which companies are & which are not is a deep dark mystery. The IIROC has not passed any regulations about this.

to make matters worse, some brokers are taking the trouble to send investors' residency data to the dividend-issuing companies for each record date; but many brokers are not bothering to do so. The IIROC has not passed any regulations about this, either.

with respect to Potash, here's what the bush telegraph system says on this date, the eighth day of january 2016.

bush telegraph says that Potash is a company that is trying to be helpful. Bush tel says that potash treasury converts as many dividends as necessary from USD to CAD at spot rates, according to what brokers say are canadian resident-held shares at each record date. Bush tel says that scotia iTrade & royal bank are 2 of the brokers who are cooperating with the new emerging system. IE scotia & roybank are disclosing investors' residencies to Potash & those investors are forcibly receiving Potash dividends in CAD, converted at favourable spot rate.

this means that investors at scotia & roybank who are holding Potash in USD accounts are being dinged FX fees by their brokers, even though the original dividend was issued by POT in USD.

however, the situation at TD is the reverse. For some reason - possibly because TD is not disclosing investors' residencies properly to Potash for each record date - TDDI is stilll receiving bulk dividends from Potash in USD & distributing them into USD accounts with no FX fee, exactly as many clients have arranged in recent years.

however, TD clients who hold Potash in CAD accounts are being dinged FX fees on their dividends by the big green.

this nutbar mess is occurring because every one of those 23 or 24 companies has its own arrangement with each & every broker. There is no master list of who's-doing-what.

bottom line, TD clients who hold POT in USD accounts are OK for now. But who knows when TD may suddenly convert to receiving those bulk dividends in CAD? after all, we've had good evidence in another thread that TDDI is already doing this - ie forwarding investors' residencies to the dividend issuer - for BAM. Possibly also for AGU. It stands to reason that, in time, TD might also convert its practice for POT.

in fact, the big green might even be updating its dividend data collection procedures for record date reporting, even as we post. To make matters worse, TD will never be able to inform all its clients properly. Gosh, they won't even be able to properly inform their front line call centre representatives ...


----------



## Ethan

A couple of points on PotashCorp.

- POT earnings per share for the first 3 quarters of 2015 were $1.28, down from $1.34 in 2014. Remember that POT reports in USD, so in Canadian dollars their earnings per share have actually increased this year. Despite this, their share price in Canadian dollars has fallen 45% in the past year.
- PotashCorp isn't solely a Potash company, ~40% of their gross margin comes from nitrogen and phosphate based fertilizers. Phosphate has done the best in the first 9 months of this year, with gross margins increasing from $135 million to $180 million. Potash has also done well with gross margins increasing from $990 million to $1,139 million. What's hurt POT are Nitrogen gross margins, which declined from $776 million to $564 million.
- I don't expect the dividend to be cut. POT's cash expenditures should go down as they have substantially completed their $8.4 billion production expansion projects at their Saskatchewan potash mines. They have abandoned their takeover attempt of K+S and have a healthy balance sheet.

My biggest concerns relate to overproduction. I have no idea why Russia and Belarus are overproducing in an attempt to gain market share, I further have no idea why there are so many proposed and under development mines (K+S Legacy project, BHP Jansen lake, Striktum's proposed mine in Kaliningrad and the York potash project in the UK). I suspect not all of these mines will get built, and supply/demand will balance out at some point.

While there are certainly challenges facing POT, I think the market has overreacted in sending their share price so low.

Long POT


----------



## lost in space

Thanks Ethan that was my feeling. It's also that (most) companies are loath to cut the dividend and since they are profitable, edit not losing money I think it's unlikey they will cut it. I too am long POT

As an aside this bear market ground my portfolio up enough I'll be sticking to ETFs in the future

Esit: took a look over at Financial Wisdom forum and they were saying pretty much the same thing


----------



## treva84

lost in space said:


> Thanks Ethan that was my feeling. It's also that (most) companies are loath to cut the dividend and since they are profitable, edit not losing money I think it's unlikey they will cut it. I too am long POT


Are they profitable though? They've had dropping revenues for the last 4 years (probably 5, we'll see what happens with soon to be released 2015 annual report). Commodities prices are in the toilet, demand is decreasing, and they have competitors flooding the market trying to get more market share (contacts are negotiated on a yearly basis I believe). Yet the dividend just keeps rising - this is what worries me. 

I guess we'll see, Q4 earnings come out at the end of this month.


----------



## Ethan

treva84 said:


> Are they profitable though?They've had dropping revenues for the last 4 years (probably 5, we'll see what happens with soon to be released 2015 annual report).


They've made $1.069 billion US in the first 9 months of 2015.



> demand is decreasing


Is it?

http://www.potashcorp.com/overview/nutrients/potash/market-overview/world-potash-supply-and-demand

Long term I think demand can only increase, as a growing population and increasing incomes in emerging markets are going to lead for a greater demand for food. As the amount of agricultural land available decreases due to higher populations and urban sprawl, fertilizer is the most efficient way to increase crop yields. Supply and demand are out of whack now, which happens from time to time (see the potash market in the 1970's for a comparable), but the long-term trend certainly suggests increased future usage.


----------



## Twixer

Ethan said:


> I have no idea why Russia and Belarus are overproducing in an attempt to gain market share, I further have no idea why there are so many proposed and under development mines (K+S Legacy project, BHP Jansen lake, Striktum's proposed mine in Kaliningrad and the York potash project in the UK). I suspect not all of these mines will get built, and supply/demand will balance out at some point.
> 
> While there are certainly challenges facing POT, I think the market has overreacted in sending their share price so low.
> 
> Long POT


Russia and Belarus have little economy outside of commodities. So the only way to compensate for falling commodity prices is increase in production. Also dictatorships in bad economic times prefer to keep big operations running and let small companies go down. Losing jobs at big companies, like mines, can become source of significant social unrest and quickly lead to fall of dictator. When a big company lays off, people blame government and the dictator. When small company lays off, they blame manager (and ask for bigger role of government). So dictatorships will find capital and will support their mines doesn't matter how unprofitable those projects are. If people at Uralkali and Belaruskali start losing jobs, Putin and Lukashenko will follow. They are not going to cut production because it is not economical but matter of political survival. 

We have so many developments because cheap money for a very long time. Everyone has access to cheap money, everyone thinks developing world is going to consume much more protein, and everyone builds mines.


----------



## Eclectic12

lost in space said:


> It's also that (most) companies are loath to cut the dividend and since they are profitable, edit not losing money I think it's unlikey they will cut it.


Cutting dividends usually hammers the share price ... unless they are sure there is no other choice, most companies will look at just about any other choice.


Cheers


----------



## godblsmnymkr

aaaaand the knife continues to fall. if you like money i would not buy this until it breaks out of its downtrend and holds or some capitulatory volume washout.


----------



## humble_pie

one reads that farmers in india tend to buy fertilizer only every 2nd year, reason being they can't afford to buy every year. Evidently fields continue to produce similar-size crops during the 2nd year, even with no fertilizer, in this rotational kind of program.

one also reads that some farmers in 3rd world countries attempt to prolong the fertilize-do-not-fertilize cycle into a 3rd year; however crop yield is said to drop noticeably in the 3rd year, being the 2nd year without fertilizer.

i don't know if this pattern of irregular fertilization is practiced in china. Pricing contracts for both china & india are coming up. China is said to have typically increased official inventories in a classic bid to lower price negotiations.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I'm waiting now, after buying only a bit in the low-20s to see where this lands. This is nuts, down almost 60% in 10 months for a multi-billion dollar company like this.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

no one ever said bear markets are rational. POT chart looks a lot like FCX chart.


----------



## lost in space

Noticed the yield is now pushing 10% normally this is a clear danger signal but when you calculate it on the US dollar it comes out to a more reasonable 6%* so a large part of it is the weakness of the dollar, now forecast to drop to 60 cents. Potash is also profitable, probably less so than before but still not losing money.

National Bank is almost 6% as well.


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## james4beach

It's a flagship commodity stock in Canada, and everyone around the world is in the mood of dumping commodities & everything associated with them. There's nothing surprising about the stock direction.

All commodities have been steadily declining ever since 2011 -- you can't be surprised about POT declining like this when the whole commodities space has been crashing now for 3 years!

Certainly sucks though. Lots of equity value destroyed in the commodity space.


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## Pluto

Mercifully I sold my pot when it was around 42 - up ward trend was clearly over. Not ready to buy it back yet. Want to see the down trend get broken first.


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## godblsmnymkr

they say it takes 25 years for an industry to recover from a bubble. Potash/fertilizer stocks were in a huge bubble pre financial crisis. looks at semi conductors (tech bubble 15 years ago) or banking.


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## lost in space

james4beach said:


> It's a flagship commodity stock in Canada, and everyone around the world is in the mood of dumping commodities & everything associated with them. There's nothing surprising about the stock direction.
> 
> All commodities have been steadily declining ever since 2011 -- you can't be surprised about POT declining like this when the whole commodities space has been crashing now for 3 years!
> 
> Certainly sucks though. Lots of equity value destroyed in the commodity space.


Personally volatility in the market doesn't bother me as long as it's not a sign the company is in trouble (e.g. PGF) I'm re-investing the dividends so I'm happy the stock is on sale. 

We're T minus 7 for the wife to retire so I have to start thinking how I'd approach if we retired into a bear market.


----------



## Canadian

Down another 6% today. Anyone watching this guy?


----------



## Chris L

Wow, there's no support for anything. I'm not sure it's totally warranted in a growing world. But what do I know.


----------



## AltaRed

lost in space said:


> We're T minus 7 for the wife to retire so I have to start thinking how I'd approach if we retired into a bear market.


Stay out of cyclical stocks and don't try to bottom feed unless you have 10 years of fixed income/cash set aside to handle a 10 year bear in cyclical stocks like energy and materials.


----------



## Jungle

I sold potash at the beginning of the year and put into index funds. Despite getting killed on this one, our CDN portfolio beat the index in 2015 by a whopping 1%. 

I decided the risk wasn't worth holding it for me. 

Now I don't have to worry every day if they're going to cut their dividend.


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## godblsmnymkr

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3049456-potash-corp-minus-7-percent-speculation-dividend-cut

i think i said this earlier in the thread, but POT was at the centre of the bubble in agriculture stocks in 2008. it usually takes a very long time to recover from something like that. look at the nasdaq, american banks, semi-conductors. 
this just doesnt seem to be a very enticing sector to be in atm.


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## Pluto

I still have buying some pot stock on my radar. I'm a buy on bad news, sell on good news type of investors and I have made decent money buying during times of pessimism. There seems to be a lot of pessimism concerning this stock and industry. That means the stock price is low and a buyer and long term holder will likely make money. An essential is to not lose money, and it is difficult to see how one could lose here. Need for the product will not evaporate. 

Apparently the big problem has been that the cartel type pricing scheme/scam fell apart, and the stock price has adjusted. Seems to me, then, a lot of the risk is gone, the industry has reset in a more competitive way. Why not get in on the ground floor? 
So I'm wondering if there are any holes in my reasoning. 
Any thoughts?


----------



## FrugalTrader

Just read an article that JPMorgan is calling for a divvy cut from current 1.52 to $1. I suspect that if they cut dividend, stock will pop upward.


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## My Own Advisor

Thanks for sharing FT. I think the divi is unsustainable now.


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## maxandrelax

I can see this being a very lucrative investment if you sit on it a while. We are approaching early 2007 levels before the sp went parabolic. Yes, there are other potash mines coming online, but I don't think any are of the quality as POT.

FWIW - Fool.ca Sept 2015 "In addition, Potash Corp. is also expanding its New Brunswick operations with its new Picadilly mine expected to have an operating capacity of 1.8 million tonnes per year. The end result is that Potash Corp. is expected to have capacity of 17.2 million tonnes annually over the next several years, up from an estimated 10.9 million this year." 

This is problematic, considering they just announced suspension of this mine, laying off 400 people... 

Companies get lean and come back... isn't that the cycle?


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## londoncalling

all commodities are cyclical. The cycle durations are unknown. Like gravity, what goes up must come down. However, at some point the trend will reverse. Cyclicals can be a great way to make $ if you have the time and ability to sell high and buy low. Time is on my side. As always, I bought too soon. There will be a pop in share price next time Potash corp can renew some contracts at a decent price. Typically, cutting costs and production are good for share price and bad for labour. Still holding for the long run. Will add and sell over the next 25 years based on where we are in the cycle.

Cheers


----------



## dogleg

AltaRed: That is excellent advice. Commodities can break your heart if you are looking for a quick buck.


----------



## besmartrich

londoncalling said:


> all commodities are cyclical. The cycle durations are unknown. Like gravity, what goes up must come down. However, at some point the trend will reverse. Cyclicals can be a great way to make $ if you have the time and ability to sell high and buy low. Time is on my side. As always, I bought too soon. There will be a pop in share price next time Potash corp can renew some contracts at a decent price. Typically, cutting costs and production are good for share price and bad for labour. Still holding for the long run. Will add and sell over the next 25 years based on where we are in the cycle.
> 
> Cheers


I agree. I jumped in too early but it will turn back up sooner or later.


----------



## FrugalTrader

POT reports in the AM, who thinks there will be a divvy cut?


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## pastorash

I wouldn't be surprised to see the dividend go down, and I'd be happy to own a bit more of this stock at these low prices. That said, I'm not looking for a quick return and don't need the cash for at least 10-15 years.


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## Chris L

I'll look at this after a divi cut. Until then, need some lower end support for this. No end is sight.


----------



## My Own Advisor

I see a 50% divi cut. Then, 10% price increase after the divi. cut. Just a guess! Long-term buy and hold.


----------



## blin10

will be watching this tomorrow as well, might add more


----------



## doctrine

10% dividend yield is almost unheard of in large caps, incredibly strong indication of a dividend cut. 

This all seems like foolish corporate governance to me. They raised their dividend from 7 cents to 35 cents, or 400%, in just six quarters back in 2012-13, and now are probably going to have to cut it back.

While the dividend might be technically sustainable here, they have to essentially pay out almost all of the cash they generate and can't save anything, pay down debt, reinvest in the business or make acquisitions without issuing capital.


----------



## FrugalTrader

POT slashes dividend by 34% http://business.financialpost.com/n...989-as-lower-fertilizer-prices-halve-earnings


----------



## Synergy

Let's see how the share price responds this morning - place your bets! Shouldn't be a huge surprise to anyone.


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## al42

looks like under 20 is a possibility.


----------



## treva84

FrugalTrader said:


> POT slashes dividend by 34% http://business.financialpost.com/n...989-as-lower-fertilizer-prices-halve-earnings


Whew I'm happy I decided to sit it out earlier this month (ended up just buying more RY).


----------



## Chris L

Yeah, I'm going to say it goes down, lol. I don't see anything positive about the report. Looks like this needs to settle down someplace much lower due to market conditions. Just not enough demand on fertilizer.


----------



## lost in space

Just saw that myself. To be honest i'm a bit surprised as they weren't losing money and companies are usually loath to cut the dividend so I wasn't too worried.

The question is whether to take your losses and move on or hold out and wait for the eventual recovery. If they don't cut the dividend than long term it should be OK. If memory serves me correct it was Transcanada that cut the dividend many years ago in similar circumstances and eventually the stock and the dividend recovered. My Dad bought some stock in it after the crash and did quite well, That was the reason why I bought it 2 years ago and as mentioned they were still profitable.

BTW lesson learned, been eyeing True North Commercial REIT 12% yield 100% ROC - me thinks I'll wait a bit to see how this plays out


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## Eclectic12

^^^

If you mean when TRP hit $10 ... I recall it being a badly planned expansion. I don't believe the whole oil sector was in the tank the way it is today.


Cheers


----------



## peterk

Added another 50 shares at $20.92. Great move to cut the dividend IMO. Hunker down, put priority on maintaining a strong balance sheet, and save money for big moves/acquisitions in the future. I wish big oil would cut back on their dividends already!


----------



## hboy43

I have a limit bid in at well under. Not completely stinky, but not that fresh smelling either. Looks like I won't be becoming a shareholder today.


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## Canadian

I'm somewhat surprised to see the stock in the red today after news of the dividend cut. Agree with peterk about it being a good move. Don't think I'm going to add here - want to watch this play out some more. My time horizon is 30+ years and I think this one will do well once it cycles back into favour.


----------



## ONoob

I have my bid in for couple of weeks now, thought it may get fill will the dividend cut announcement this morning, but no luck yet!


----------



## My Own Advisor

Canadian said:


> I'm somewhat surprised to see the stock in the red today after news of the dividend cut. Agree with peterk about it being a good move. Don't think I'm going to add here - want to watch this play out some more. My time horizon is 30+ years and I think this one will do well once it cycles back into favour.


Surprised about the dive, looking to buy more, looks like I'll get my chance


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## treva84

Looking into this cut a bit further I actually see a bunch of red flags popping up. For example, the current dividend represents a 100% pay out ratio for their 2016 projections. What if they don't meet their projections? Then their pay out ratio will be even greater and they'll have to cut the dividend again. 

Also, commodities prices were obviously falling and management cites:



> “Weaker fertilizer prices late in the year reduced our earnings for the quarter, giving rise to a more cautious outlook for all three nutrients (potash, nitrogen and phosphate) as we begin 2016,” chief executive Jochen Tilk said in a statement.


If you look at potash prices, they have been falling for the last 6 months (yes, I know I am ignoring nitrogen and potassium but the majority of their revenue is from potash sales) - http://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndData/GraphEngine.ashx?z=f&gf=110545.USD.t&dr=1y

The price did fall more in the final part of 2015, but the decline isn't new. Mr. Tilk makes it sound like it was an unfortunate surprise that the price of potash tanked and thus they had to cut their dividend.

The fact that they have only cut it to a 100% pay out ratio makes me worried - they are only thinking short term rather than long term. Yes, commodities prices are cyclical and things will eventually improve, but if management wants my me to invest my heard earned dollars I think they should plan for the worst rather than hope for the best.


----------



## cdnceo

Div is still ~6.75% after the cut. Expecting a slight rally in the coming weeks.


----------



## lost in space

Eclectic12 said:


> ^^^
> 
> If you mean when TRP hit $10 ... I recall it being a badly planned expansion. I don't believe the whole oil sector was in the tank the way it is today.
> 
> 
> Cheers


Yeah I remember my Dad talking about, but it was a long time ago so I didn't remember the specifics



> Canadian
> I'm somewhat surprised to see the stock in the red today after news of the dividend cut. Agree with peterk about it being a good move. Don't think I'm going to add here - want to watch this play out some more. My time horizon is 30+ years and I think this one will do well once it cycles back into favour.


Yeah this is my thinking, keep DRIPing the dividend.


----------



## peterk

hboy43 said:


> I have a limit bid in at well under. Not completely stinky, but not that fresh smelling either. Looks like I won't be becoming a shareholder today.





ONoob said:


> I have my bid in for couple of weeks now, thought it may get fill will the dividend cut announcement this morning, but no luck yet!


What's the idea with using limit bids for such lengthy periods? I only use limit bids to make sure I don't catch a little spike at the moment I want to buy. If it doesn't fill within like 60 seconds I go check out the price action and decide if I'll readjust my bid accordingly or back away. Sometimes I even use a market order if I'm really itching to buy/sell the stock RIGHT NOW and not willing to risk a limit bid.

How come you guys aren't just selling last minute naked puts instead? You can sell a $15 POT Jan 29 for $0.20 right this second and at least make some money, instead of waiting for days and days for a bit to hit.


----------



## hboy43

peterk said:


> What's the idea with using limit bids for such lengthy periods?


Placed an order before open in case it spiked down sharply ... and it didn't. I don't need POT today or ever really, so the day limit order will expire with no further effort on my part. I have plenty of balls in the air now and POT at $21 just isn't THAT exciting yet.

hboy43


----------



## ONoob

I am not familiar with option, so I never considered it. I also have a price in mind that I am willing to pay, if POT reached my price, perfect, if not, so be it.


----------



## peterk

ONoob said:


> I am not familiar with option, so I never considered it. I also have a price in mind that I am willing to pay, if POT reached my price, perfect, if not, so be it.


I don't know much about options either, but with that mindset it sounds like you should be selling put options. When you say you have a "price in mind" is it a different price in your mind ever day? or is it the same price for several days/weeks at a time? If the latter then I think selling options could be for you (instead of multi-day limit orders).


----------



## hboy43

peterk said:


> If the latter then I think selling options could be for you (instead of multi-day limit orders).


There is a certain logic in what you say. I just had a quick look around the POT options at TDW. There are a number of issues for me :

I need yet another 2 accounts (CAN, US dollar) set up as regular margin accounts don't allow options.
The quantity of money is small, given your example of $0.20/sh, only amounts in the low hundreds of dollars for taking on the obligation to hold a few tens of thousands of dollars of shares.
There is the learning curve of options.
There is the learning curve of whatever are the tax implications.
The liquidity and bid/ask spreads are poor and huge respectively.
Probably other stuff that a 5 minute cursory look did not reveal.

Never say never, but I really by nature am a long term guy that mostly wants to leave things well enough alone. The Oil situation and general malaise got me out of investing hibernation as my nose smells opportunity, but I really want to crawl back into the cave sooner rather than later.

hboy43


----------



## pastorash

I removed my limit order this morning, and it wouldn't have reached it anyway. I have a bid out on NA right now, again for a long term hold. If that doesn't work i may revisit POT on further weakness.


----------



## ONoob

peterk said:


> I don't know much about options either, but with that mindset it sounds like you should be selling put options. When you say you have a "price in mind" is it a different price in your mind ever day? or is it the same price for several days/weeks at a time? If the latter then I think selling options could be for you (instead of multi-day limit orders).


Same price. May be I should try to learn about selling put. so much to learn, so little time.


----------



## lost in space

Any thoughts on if they'll cut the dividend further?

I'm trying to decide if this is a TRP or a TA. As mentioned in a previous post TRP ran into problems many years ago, cut the dividend and eventually recovered, where as stocks like Transalta has gone down and never recovered

The thing is when the stock first cratered it actually recovered and at one point hit $46 a share so when it dropped again I figured it was just a general bear market not a problem with the stock itself. As mentioned they remained (barely) profitable and had never cut the dividend before. I'm leaning towards the later and in which case I take my lumps and sell.


----------



## AltaRed

It would have been better for POT to slash the dividend a lot more severely. Paying out 100% based on projected 2016 cash flow is just plain stupid and suggests a management more like TA than TRP was. However, that said, I don't think there is a a lot wrong with the company albeit some investment decisions were poorly made in recent times, e.g. the NB mine. One can argue that a number of miners got caught in this severe commodity downdraft like Teck too.


----------



## lost in space

AltaRed said:


> It would have been better for POT to slash the dividend a lot more severely. Paying out 100% based on projected 2016 cash flow is just plain stupid and suggests a management more like TA than TRP was. However, that said, I don't think there is a a lot wrong with the company albeit some investment decisions were poorly made in recent times, e.g. the NB mine. One can argue that a number of miners got caught in this severe commodity downdraft like Teck too.


This just arrived in my inbox today from Stock Chase

They cut their dividend after a bad quarter. People did not expect guidance to be so low for 2016. They are dominant in the business. There is a lot of bad news built into the price and after today’s negative announcements, the stock has climbed. It is worth taking a look at

Undecided if I will stay the course or sell it off and take my lumps.

Edit: The stock is now climbing so I'm going to think about at what point I'd be willing to sell, not sure I want to wait around and see if they do cut the dividend more


----------



## Canadian

In this environment I welcome an additional dividend cut. I would rather see funds reinvested into the company so it can capitalise on future opportunities than be distributed as dividends. A second dividend cut will hurt confidence in management though because it would make them look indecisive. I agree with AltaRed that the dividend could have been slashed more.


----------



## humble_pie

peterk said:


> How come you guys aren't just selling last minute naked puts instead? You can sell a $15 POT Jan 29 for $0.20 right this second and at least make some money, instead of waiting for days and days for a bit to hit.



the advantage of selling put options is that one collects real $$ for putting a far-below-the-money bid out there.

a low-ball bid, on the other hand, doesn't pay anything.

BTW the market for 29 jan/16 put options in montreal is precious thin. Is it possible that peterk was looking at an *ask* price, although these are nearly always fairy tales, especially on the montreal exchange. There are no january 29 bids in potash until one goes all the way up to the 22.50s, a strike price that is actually above trading prices for the stock.

in general a player in potash options should go to the US. There are some nice bids right now in US potash put options. Me i'd maybe go to the june 15 or 14 puts (1.19-1.20 & .79-.84 respectively) (USD prices) (POT in USD is trading just north of 16).


----------



## peterk

Thanks HP. The $15 Jan 29 I was quoting above was the USD POT, not Montreal. I don't know much about options but what I've read on CMF before is that you shouldn't even bother looking at the Montreal exchange for interlisted stocks, unless you're a pro perhaps.

Evidently that put is about to expire worthless today. Our stink bidders would have at least made 20c/share had they gone the options route.


----------



## humble_pie

^^

so sorry, i'm not seeing any bid in US 19 jan 29 put options until we rise to the 16.50s, which is above the market price of the stock.


----------



## peterk

I believe I saw a bid/ask of 0.20/0.24 for the $15 when I made that post. Of course I'm just looking at google finance options chains. I have no idea how accurate or up to date those are. Now I'm seeing a 0.01/0.05 for the $15 that's about to expire worthless.

But I'm not an options trader, just an options imaginer. :biggrin: I may begin to dabble later in the year as I begin investing more money in my IB unregistered account. Before now all I had was a Questrade TFSA/RRSP and it didn't seem worthwhile to figure out how to trade options with the small amounts I am dealing with and the high commissions for just 1 or 2 contracts.


----------



## AltaRed

Canadian said:


> In this environment I welcome an additional dividend cut. I would rather see funds reinvested into the company so it can capitalise on future opportunities than be distributed as dividends. A second dividend cut will hurt confidence in management though because it would make them look indecisive. I agree with AltaRed that the dividend could have been slashed more.


A 50% cut would not have made any difference whatsoever. They were just being too cute thinking $1 dividend per year might sit better. A better cut would have been to 20 cents/qtr. No one would have batted an eye.


----------



## 1980z28

Have A buy at 20.11 for a 1000 shares

Great to say I will buy 20k of POT and it is not go to jail 

What a great country


----------



## treva84

AltaRed said:


> A 50% cut would not have made any difference whatsoever. They were just being too cute thinking $1 dividend per year might sit better. A better cut would have been to 20 cents/qtr. No one would have batted an eye.


I agree, especially your earlier comments about management. Although this stock has an attractive valuation (10 year P/E 19.9; current P/E 10.1) due to the actions of management I personally wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.


----------



## 1980z28

Who would not want to buy POT for the future

Spend for 1000 shares and all well go well(IMHO)


----------



## 1980z28

I have never purchased any POT

I have place a bid for 2000 share`s of POT at 21.15 :cower:


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## pastorash

I love the polarizing opinions on this thread right now. "It's a great price!", "I won't touch it." Very amusing and I can't wait to see the banter over the next few weeks.


----------



## bmoney

I owned POT, sold it, bought it back and sold it again over the course of the last 2 years. I held on to my second purchase to long because I was in denial. Things in the potash space have gone from bad to worse. As the stock fell I tried really hard to find a silver lining but the reality is, this is not a scare resource, it had a huge run up form $150 a ton to about $900 a ton, and it's back around $250 a ton. There is more capacity coming online such as K&S Legacy mine in SK. The cost to extract is under $100 a ton, so companies like K&S are increasing revenue at the expense of the established players margins. Yes the world has to eat, but there have been record harvests such that crop prices are so low farmers have put off buying fertilizers. Until I see market conditions improving I"m staying out of this one for now. POT could come full circle along with potash prices and this stock trades in the teens. Sorry I just don't see anything that makes me want to buy this right now.


----------



## LBCfan

I bought 50 shares at the IPO, was it a dumb move? Cost me about C$900, last year I got about C$2K in dividends. After splits I own 900 shares at whatever the price is. IPO price ~C$18, today about the same except I own 18 Times as many shares. Thus in 30 years an 18 bagger, not too bad. I also bought more early and actually sold some near the top. I was an employee and do know a few facts about the industry. Let me pontificate:


> this is not a scare resource


No it isn't There is a potash deposit under most of southern Sk, a bit of Manitoba, it's under Alberta but DEEP. There sre deeper deposits under ND & Montana. However it costs too much to mine.



> There is more capacity coming online such as K&S Legacy mine in SK. The cost to extract is under $100 a ton,


The rest of SK is under $100/ton to extract, do you have reason to believe Legasy will match those numbers and if so why??


----------



## lost in space

pastorash said:


> I love the polarizing opinions on this thread right now. "It's a great price!", "I won't touch it." Very amusing and I can't wait to see the banter over the next few weeks.


Ha ha that's been me the last couple of days!

It's trending back up so I'm going to watch it and see where it goes, but leaning towards, if they cut the dividend once they'll do it again so cut your losses and run. As bmoney said, it's a commodity and ultimately the share price will reflect that. On the other hand they took thier medicine and .... :rugby:

If I sell now I'd be down about 4000 dollars.


----------



## Ethan

LBCfan said:


> I bought 50 shares at the IPO, was it a dumb move? Cost me about C$900, last year I got about C$2K in dividends. After splits I own 900 shares at whatever the price is. IPO price ~C$18, today about the same except I own 18 Times as many shares. Thus in 30 years an 18 bagger, not too bad. I also bought more early and actually sold some near the top. I was an employee and do know a few facts about the industry.


You're an original shareholder and you still hold some of your original shares? That is very cool. I can't imagine there are many people that can say that about any company.


----------



## Ethan

AltaRed said:


> It would have been better for POT to slash the dividend a lot more severely. Paying out 100% based on projected 2016 cash flow is just plain stupid and suggests a management more like TA than TRP was. However, that said, I don't think there is a a lot wrong with the company albeit some investment decisions were poorly made in recent times, e.g. the NB mine. One can argue that a number of miners got caught in this severe commodity downdraft like Teck too.


How do you feel about the numerous oil companies paying out dividends far in excess of their earnings? At least POT is trying to pay out no more than their earnings.


----------



## AltaRed

I am not knocking POT beyond the point they should have reduced dividend further to restore confidence in the stock (stock price may have tracked higher). 

[Off-Topic]Earnings is a poor short term measure with any resource company due to the UOP component in their DD&A (never mind writeoffs of non-performing reserves). In bad times, payout ratios will definitely exceed earinings. Free cash flow is really the measure of their ability to keep the lights on and payout ratios obviously cannot exceed FCF for long without going out of business. The way I understand it seeing the various announcements of dividend cuts, managements at least are saying they need to protect the balance sheet by not exceeding cash flow. Now whether their forward projections are too optimistic in their calculations is another story. I think we are seeing that with multiple dividend cuts, i.e. forward projections were too rosy. 

Clearly those companies with over leveraged balance sheets are teetering on the edge and with hedges running out, there is worse to come. Clearly these companies will not be able to invest enough capex to maintain production and therein begins the downward spiral. There is a tipping point where the poo hits the fan. I wouldn't touch anything that does not have a strong balance sheet nor anything with payout ratios exceeding free cash flow.

Disclosure: I own a partial holding of CNQ, my only holding of anything commodity/resource based.[/Off-Topic]


----------



## lost in space

As Benjamin Graham said “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” You can see that clearly in the charts. Back in mid 2013 when the Potash cartel broke up and the stock crashed to $30 and eventually recovered to $40. I got in around then figuring, correctly, that the market had over reacted. But as Graham said in the long term it’s a weighing machine. That’s where I made my mistake. The earnings simply weren’t there to support the price. I’ve attached a FAST chart showing earnings and how the stock price has followed it. 

The second chart is analyst forecasts as you can see earnings will drop than level out. Now the question is going forward will the company continue to trade at it’s current PE ratio (about 10) or will it go back to its long term average of 23. If it continues at a PE ratio of 10 than the expected than the price should stabilize at around 18 dollars a share. If it goes back to its historical PE ratio than we’ll see the price climb back to 36 dollars a share. 
I see nothing going forward to support a higher PE ratio. Potash is a commodity and if they’ve cut the dividend once they’ll cut it again. Until the pricing power comes back I see no upside so as they say in Sharks Tank. “For that reason I’m out”

Sold yesterday at 21.60 

Note: Black line is the stock price, green shaded area is earnings white line is dividends. Blue Oran age line is PE ratio


----------



## The_Tosser

lost in space said:


> I see nothing going forward to support a higher PE ratio. Potash is a commodity and if they’ve cut the dividend once they’ll cut it again. Until the pricing power comes back I see no upside so as they say in Sharks Tank. “For that reason I’m out”
> 
> Sold yesterday at 21.60
> 
> Note: Black line is the stock price, green shaded area is earnings white line is dividends. Blue Oran age line is PE ratio


Congrats on making a decision. Right or wrong, who cares. Trading/investing is usually not a one-hit wonder machine. It certainly won't be in this case. 

Here's something you really need to weight heavily in your investing crystal ball. A rising tide raises all ships. The inverse is true. What resource stock has been a great buy in the last year? Pretty much none. The tide went out and 'what' you bought was much less important than 'when' you bought. {Edit: Single stock risk is a ***** too, I do note}

I suggest to you that POT <insert any resource/commodity stock you wish> would not have performed this poorly at all had the sector not turned out this way. What i am saying is you're likely to see your (prev owned) POT do well from here if indeed the resource sector finally gets its long past due bounce.

Given the broader markets all over have now come under some pressure and are now nicely off their highs over the past 30 days straight, we have an overall better chance of resources rising with a general market recovering and from there you could at least sell into strength etc.

"When" matters a lot. Timing really is everything. I believe your 'analysis' matters very little from here. Most of the damage has already been done in this sector I would imagine. If I were a betting man


----------



## lost in space

It was a bit of an expensive lesson to learn. I wasn't wrong on my thoughts, got in after the big drop, figured the market had over reacted and I was correct, it was a chance to pick up the stock cheap and if you paid attention turn a nice profit. Where my mistake lie was not realizing this was a cyclical stock and more importantly not really paying attention to it. Just updated my ACB and realized that I got in it at 36-40 higher than I thought, also it was once it dropped 30% that I started paying attention. 

I've now fixed my process, created a simple spread sheet with my pics along with my entry exist points. While I'm a buy and hold investor no stock is buy and ignore. I also joined Fastgraphs which should help with my investment strategy.


----------



## Pluto

lost in space said:


> I've now fixed my process, created a simple spread sheet with my pics along with my entry exist points. While I'm a buy and hold investor no stock is buy and ignore. I also joined Fastgraphs which should help with my investment strategy.


I like fast graphs. resolution on the price is only monthly which lops off the extreme highs and lows. However, that can be resolved by supplementing with some other chart. 
I hope you study trend lines and how they can help with cyclical stocks. There is a collective consciousness in stock markets, and the price and volume trends and actions tip one off to what the collective consciousness is thinking. Have a look at other cyclicals such as MG, and GM. Record auto sales, but the stocks are weak. I'm shocked to hear professional money managers recommend MG recently. The weak stock prices are giving them a message: do not buy because the cycle is topping out. The autos stocks, like POT, always look rosy at the top - they invariable top out when everything looks great for the business. 

I sold POT around 40 when it broke its upward trend. Will probably buy back when it breaks its down trend.


----------



## daddybigbucks

With the low price of POT, the DRIP shares are amazing!


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## Ag Driver

Deleted


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## My Own Advisor

daddybigbucks said:


> With the low price of POT, the DRIP shares are amazing!


+1


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## besmartrich

daddybigbucks said:


> With the low price of POT, the DRIP shares are amazing!


Yup. I am enjoying it as well.


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## maxandrelax

besmartrich said:


> Yup. I am enjoying it as well.


They couldn't have come at a better time, if that was the bottom. Look who is breaking through 50 day moving average today.


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## My Own Advisor

Annoying the price is coming back, I wanted to buy more at the time. Oh well. Can't win 'em all....


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## MrMatt

My Own Advisor said:


> Annoying the price is coming back, I wanted to buy more at the time. Oh well. Can't win 'em all....


Still rising, but wonder if it's a good time to buy, as I have some other positions I'll be scaling back.


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## My Own Advisor

I'm buying more. Eventually it will be a $40 stock so the prices today, still around $52-week lows are cheap. Also, the dividend will be increased again at some point. Long-term hold for me. 

Still annoying the price is rising. If Mr. Market can please wait another 20 years before prices rise, that would be good. 

Then, as a retiree - stocks can skyrocket please!


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## RBull

My Own Advisor said:


> I'm buying more. Eventually it will be a $40 stock so the prices today, still around $52-week lows are cheap. Also, the dividend will be increased again at some point. Long-term hold for me.
> 
> *Still annoying the price is rising. If Mr. Market can please wait another 20 years before prices rise, that would be good.
> 
> Then, as a retiree - stocks can skyrocket please!*


If stocks just do their historical normal thing -up and down, but go up over the long term everything will be good.


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## cevans

*dividend coming up?*

Any predictions on how the dividend will impact prices?


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## avrex

Should Investors Buy Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. for the Dividend


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## cevans

I bought it more for the lower price - at $22.78 - I did not pay much attention to the dividend...its keeping me on the edge of my seat


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## daddybigbucks

i bought some more today as well when it came up at 52 week low.
i havent checked the numbers recently but its a Canadian protected company. 
long term hold


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## 1980z28

daddybigbucks said:


> i bought some more today as well when it came up at 52 week low.
> i havent checked the numbers recently but its a Canadian protected company.
> long term hold


Picked another 1000 @ 20.62


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## 1980z28

1980z28 said:


> Picked another 1000 @ 20.62


another 1000 at 20.68


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## mrPPincer

today is ex-dividend date for Pot.

I put a bid in though, for another 50 shares @ 20.42, good for 4 weeks.
my cash is in transit, following promo rates, so atm I only have 1K in the sock drawer to spend, just as well, since it seems from trajectory, resource stocks like this can go much lower before they go back up.


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## 1980z28

mrPPincer said:


> today is ex-dividend date for Pot.
> 
> I put a bid in though, for another 50 shares @ 20.42, good for 4 weeks.
> my cash is in transit, following promo rates, so atm I only have 1K in the sock drawer to spend, just as well, since it seems from trajectory, resource stocks like this can go much lower before they go back up.


I do belive that all purchases in POT will only go up,so it is good that it is on sale now


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## daddybigbucks

1980z28 said:


> another 1000 at 20.68


With a one day buy of $40,000 worth of Pot, i think you are on the rcmp watch list.


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## AltaRed

Me thinks the Camaro is a random trader. Haven't made sense out of any of the buy/sell actions or why. Perhaps a technical trader?


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## 1980z28

Only holding 3000 shares in total to date

spent over 120k yesterday in total on all my trades(35k was leveraged)

Thinking I have around 300k plus to spend this year as I will sell the house I live in now(I will leverage the 300k plus),new house will be finished soon,all paid for

I buy TDB every week on payday for many years


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## My Own Advisor

You're rollin' 1980!

I have a small position in POT and will likely buy more as a long term hold. I try to balance out my buys with some equity ETFs (e.g., VTI) and stocks a few times per year.


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## 1980z28

My Own Advisor said:


> You're rollin' 1980!
> 
> I have a small position in POT and will likely buy more as a long term hold. I try to balance out my buys with some equity ETFs (e.g., VTI) and stocks a few times per year.


I have tried to buy ETF`s,but I find it very hard to buy them,maybe in retirement next year

Without a pension the money will have to come from somewhere,thing I will need 2k per month max to retire on


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## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> Me thinks the Camaro is a random trader. Haven't made sense out of any of the buy/sell actions or why. Perhaps a technical trader?



he's easy to understand, he just happens to write in code

(signed)
morse pie


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## AMABILE

i like to buy @ 52 wk lows
potash is there now $20.62
however i'm going to wait for
their earnings on april 28
and hopefully buy some - well below $20.00


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## humble_pie

China & India contract talks on potash prices are still stalled. One london based potash analyst says china wants to pay less than the $305/ton it paid under the expired contract, while potash vendors such as canpotex hope to raise prices 10%.

it's thought that chinese potash stockpiles are 44% higher than normal. As a result, china may move to purchase fertilizer in the spot market, a change that could collapse the global potash market, the analyst says.

of course, perhaps he's a bear in potash. I wouldn't know, most of us have no way of confirming chinese stockpiles.

meanwhile india has indicated it will not negotiate potash prices until june of this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...em-faces-collapse-as-china-negotiations-stall


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## hollyhunter

Potash Corp (POT.TO) has an ongoing P/E of 11.73, which indicates that it is undervalued.


----------



## treva84

hollyhunter said:


> Potash Corp (POT.TO) has an ongoing P/E of 11.73, which indicates that it is undervalued.


Low PE doesn't always = undervalued. A company with dropping revenues and a failing business model would also have a low P/E which would be justified based on the deterioration of the underlying fundamentals. In such a situation one could argue that it's fairly priced, or possibly over priced, depending on how bad the fundamentals are. This is what is called a "value trap".


----------



## daddybigbucks

humble_pie said:


> China & India contract talks on potash prices are still stalled. One london based potash analyst says china wants to pay less than the $305/ton it paid under the expired contract, while potash vendors such as canpotex hope to raise prices 10%.
> 
> it's thought that chinese potash stockpiles are 44% higher than normal. As a result, china may move to purchase fertilizer in the spot market, a change that could collapse the global potash market, the analyst says.
> 
> of course, perhaps he's a bear in potash. I wouldn't know, most of us have no way of confirming chinese stockpiles.
> 
> meanwhile india has indicated it will not negotiate potash prices until june of this year.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...em-faces-collapse-as-china-negotiations-stall


thanks for posting that. I thought the drop still had to do with that russian oversupply.
It may be a prolonged downturn but their earnings are fantastic.
I also bought some Agrium as they are near their 52 week lows. And their EPS is fantastic as well.

I also like Brad Wall at the helm.


----------



## Ag Driver

I'm thinking I'll pull the trigger today for 100 shares. I'll hold for long term, and will likely sell if I collect 30% profit again. I've been holding off for some time, but this looks like a great entry point. Any glaring issues aside from a potential divvy cut?

The MACD 20, 50, and 100 indicators are flattening out and the 10 day indicator is about to cross for a buy. The RSI is trending down towards 30. I'm thinking this is getting darn close to a buy. It's pretty well at it's 52 week low.

EDIT: Filled 100 shares @ $20.38 . I've convinced myself that this is a good position. Not rock bottom, but bottom enough!


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## My Own Advisor

Also bought low and intend to hold regardless.


----------



## Canuck

just bought some as well $20.33


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## doctrine

This is a new closing 52 week low, POT has been setting new 52 week lows for almost a year. 

Based on their own guidance of $0.6 to $0.8 a share, this is trading at a forward P/E close to 30. 

A more reasonable dividend would be $0.10 or perhaps suspended all together. The market is certainly expecting it. The stock might even rise. They're borrowing it pay it now.


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## gibor365

As per Thompson Reuter Forward P/E/ is 18.8 and 5y average 15.1

As per Brooke Thackray, "June 23th is the start of seasonal strength"


----------



## Daimao

I'm in it for 100 shares @ 22.12 as of today. It's trading so low, I just got curious because the hubbub that has started about it recently. I'm trying to bet with the market after this week's upswing.


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## hollyhunter

Technical indicator MACD, Stochastic Oscillator and RSI are triggering a buy signal. Six months target: 27


----------



## pastorash

Quite the downward swing now for 18 months or so. If this isn't a buy now or soon, when will it be? (Rebuttals graciously accepted)


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## metatheta

POT is breaking a 1-year downward trend line so I did an at-the-money Jul 22 covered call position for net 21.29DR (bought stock for 22.32DR and sold calls for 1.03CR). I'm just looking for a short-term gain.

https://metathetaoptions.wordpress.com/2016/06/06/trying-some-pot-for-the-first-time/


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## Ag Driver

I bought in at $20.38, and I'm up 13% so far for a long term hold. I'm now debating on an exit strategy. I tend to hold blue chip's as long term holds, but I have been selling off once I hit +30% ROI. 

$26.50 is not too far off for my 30% .... I don't want to get too greedy, but it will be tough to sell at $26.50 when my last position I had entered around that price point and sold at $46.57.


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## humble_pie

metatheta said:


> POT is breaking a 1-year downward trend line so I did an at-the-money Jul 22 covered call position for net 21.29DR (bought stock for 22.32DR and sold calls for 1.03CR). I'm just looking for a short-term gain.
> 
> https://metathetaoptions.wordpress.com/2016/06/06/trying-some-pot-for-the-first-time/




those were canadian? you did canadian options in potash ?

such a nice-looking blogspot! i bookmarked it & will browse for sure.


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## metatheta

Yes I did Canadian because it was inside an RSP account with CAD. I would have probably done a Jul 18 short put on a US margin account.


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## humble_pie

browsing further back in your blogspot, i can see your ECA calls were CAD as well. These would also be RRSP holdings, then?

wondering what broker is this? since, generally speaking, both potash & encana belong in USD accounts. Both pay USD dividends, one normally avoids broker FX fees by holding the shares on the US side of an account. Options in USD would follow suit.

there are several exceptions among the brokers though.


----------



## hollyhunter

Looking for a breakout at 23.80 with a short term target of 27.80. RSI is trading near to 65.09 level with positive bias.


----------



## metatheta

humble_pie said:


> wondering what broker is this? since, generally speaking, both potash & encana belong in USD accounts. Both pay USD dividends, one normally avoids broker FX fees by holding the shares on the US side of an account. Options in USD would follow suit.


I use IB and my RSP holds CAD and USD. As far as I know, any USD dividends just remain as USD so there is no FX conversion.

POT goes ex-dividend on July 8th. I am doing ITM calls and I would be quite happy to take the assignment risk to make max gain ahead of expiration.


----------



## humble_pie

^^


agree, if a trader is in & out, an isolated dividend FX fee here or there doesn't matter.

what does matter are FX fees on USD dividends paid by interlisted canadian companies whose shares are held by some investors for years & years.

IB doesn't have a good record in this respect, although it appears they are scrupulously honest about admitting that their parent US-designed system handles these dividends poorly. Or at least used to. 

just over a year ago, one cmf member posted an e-mail from IB in which the broker stated their system would withhold 15% of any dividend held on US side of the account, plus when the dividend payors were canadian interlisted companies paying USD dividends, the IB system would not be able to render T5s with the appropriate canadian dividend tax credits.

once again, none of this would matter to an in-&-out trader. I'm posting, not only for other IB clients with longer term holdings, but for clients of other small privately-owned brokerages that may have the same FX problem.

in general, the bank-owned broker mainframe systems are able to a) not withhold any 15% on canadian stocks held on US side of account, since none needs to be charged; & 2) bank broker systems can deliver proper T5 tax slips with dividend tax credits correctly identified.

.


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## doctrine

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-at-lowest-price-in-a-decade/article30628567/

Ouch...if POT breaks below $20, look out below.


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## Pluto

^ 
That would seem to imply a dividend cut, and a stock price south of 15. yes?


----------



## SMK

The upside will come.

http://www.mining.com/web/potash-price-surge-could-lead-to-higher-food-costs-for-billions/


----------



## doctrine

Theory: there are few large cap commodity stocks that maintain 6% dividend yields. Fundamentals: A look at the cash flow suggests that if Potash prices drop much further, they will be borrowing to pay the dividend. At this point, institutions will begin to pressure them to cut or they could pay more for capital (lower equity prices/higher debt interest), which is why the theory tends to hold. Investors have figured this out and priced the stock accordingly.


----------



## mrPPincer

Anybody know what that little bump was all about at about 11 AM today?
Seems somebody wanted a bunch & it's not the third friday tomorrow (canada day), so it isn't monthly option expirations.


----------



## yyz

Rumor of a takeover apparently of a Canadian potash producer


----------



## mrPPincer

Thanks yyz, didn't see anything online yet.


----------



## mrPPincer

Moved all my 377 shares into TFSA today @20.33 cad.
Reasonably significant superficial loss, but screw it, seemed like a good time to move it.


----------



## humble_pie

as many are saying, the new record low price for potash that india just printed might be the straw that will break the POT dividend back.

or else the 2nd shoe could fall. Still to come i believe are the chinese purchase contracts. What if china also slashes ...


----------



## mrPPincer

From doctrine's G&M link..


> “It remains to be seen if this contract will spur better volume/prices in other global markets, though it should set floor prices for the next months in some of those markets,” BMO analyst Joel Jackson said in a note.


India locked in a deal for "700,000 tonnes of potash at $227 (U.S.) per tonne on a cost and freight (CFR) basis".

According to TD's morning action notes, Pot can make enough to cover the dividend at over $200 US per tonne providing they move enough volume (which is another story, because there was also talk in the news about POT & another one cutting production to bolster prices).

Still, if $227 is looking like it might be a floor for this round of bidding, that could be one positive sign for the time being at least.

Action Notes excerpt
April 29, 2016 


> — We have re-run our sensitivity analysis on PotashCorp’s ability to
> sustain its current dividend based on various realized potash prices and assumed annual sales volumes. We estimate that PotashCorp needs a realized potash price of >$US200/t in order to sustain the dividend; the Q1/16 realized price was US$178/t. We estimate that PotashCorp’s 2016 net debt/EBITDA is 2.85x, up from 1.61x in 2015. In the event that fertilizer prices and/or demand do not rebound in H2, we believe that a dividend-cut is likely. Our base-case forecast is a realized potash price of $204/t in 2017 on sales of 8.9 Mt.


Their table said that pot can make a profit @$200 US if they move 10 Mt and @$225 if they move 8.5Mt

(April 29,2016)
Sales volumes (Mt)
Potash
9.05 (2011)
7.23 (2012)
8.10 (2013)
9.35 (2014)
8.77 (2015)
8.43 (2016 E)
8.91 (2017E)

PS (dunno if the above is public info or if td considers some of it it proprietary, if they are sensitive I can delete it, no big deal).


----------



## Holland

I think the dividend is safer than it looks. Using NI when comparing EPS with the dividend per share is not aways the best comparison for the payout ratio. 

The latest quarter showed: 

NI of $75 million, 
Diluted EPS of $0.09 
Dividend per share of $0.25

But if we just add back the $167 million depreciation/amortization expense to NI we have $242 million to cover the dividend (adjusted EPS = ~$0.29)


----------



## bmoney

POT realized price is sub $200 USD, you can listen to the recent analyst call with BMO for an explanation as to why. That said, I bought back in to POT for 800 shares on speculation of some near term consolidation/cooperation my ACB is $21.89. Mining.com reported on a rumour of an unsolicited bid by BHP on July 1, we'll see. 

The potash industry is in absolute turmoil and POT sees 7MT of annual production declines over the next 3 years. However, they ignore about 7MT of new production and that's not including BHP's Jansen project that alone could produce 4MT by the end of this decade, with a planned 8MT capacity. So why did I buy POT again?

1. As POT CEO articulates on the CC, markets for potash are thin meaning there are few large markets that can absorb product. This is why POT didn't bother trying to sell through other markets to net a higher price. By the time new product lands, the local market is unbalanced dropping the price for all producers. It's a zero-sum game and producers stick to their sandbox. Belarus and Uralkali learned this the hard way.

2. Jansen project is estimated to cost 14 billion to produce a max capacity of 8MT, that's 1MT shy of POT current output, and close to POT current market cap. Jansen is a huge risk, and the market cannot absorb current production capacity, let alone a single project that represents 15% of global production. 

3. Potash demand growth has not kept pace with estimates. Farmers are having to deal with pricing pressure because of a drop in relative value of local currency to USD. Crop prices are also lower, creating less incentives for farmers to increase crop yields.

4. New production coming online is prolonging the adjustment phase. Projects that were planned when prices were much higher will largely replace lost capacity. It will take several years to grow out of this.

The industry is better off to consolidate, period. These are billion dollar projects and companies and they will not run themselves off a cliff. Unlike OPEC these actors are rational and their motives are not political. Canpotex elected a pricing over market share strategy, Belarus and Uralkali failed at trying and rumours are they are in talks to cooperate. I'm expecting that some players in this space are absorbed, in an effort by producers to exert control over supply and pricing power. China is looking to make significant investments in potash, they are trying to do an end around and secure their own land rights and form their own company - so far efforts are to block China, they may need to buy themselves in another way. Pure speculation, but at 10 year lows and lots of negatives, something has to give or it will end badly for everyone - just take a look at Uralkali's latest results.


----------



## Holland

Test


----------



## mrPPincer

Thanks for sharing that analysis bmoney, your perspective is helpful.
(I really should take some time to read my copy of "the intelligent investor" sometime soon)


bmoney said:


> So why did I buy POT again?


& why didn't I sell at a 54.6% profit (before divs) in just a year and a half in Feb. 2015?


----------



## bmoney

mrPPincer said:


> Thanks for sharing that analysis bmoney, your perspective is helpful.
> (I really should take some time to read my copy of "the intelligent investor" sometime soon)
> 
> & why didn't I sell at a 54.6% profit (before divs) in just a year and a half in Feb. 2015?


The hardest is knowing when to sell! I was up a good 20-25% at one point and ended up with a loss before selling out my entire position around $28-$29. 2015 was hyped as the come back year for potash demand and it never materialized, China was over supplied and the USD rally threw a monkey wrench into material/commodity prices.

Outside of the known negative news that continues to haunt this sector, there are some outliers that could totally transform things. My gut says POT could go into the teens, but it could go back to $30 just as easily and I'll take that kind of risk/reward. Cooperation between Belarus/Uralkali, a buyout/consolidation, lower USD, increased farmer demand from a good monsoon season are all positive catalysts. If it did get into the teens over the medium term it should eventually recover as the market will balance, but we are probably still in the 5th inning. POT still have options to cut/eliminate the dividend, they are moving some production from NB to SK, and they have cash costs around $100/ton.


----------



## hollyhunter

things are looking better here. RSI (14) is trading near to 45.65 level with positive bias. The overall technical buying signal is on. Would like to see a break at 22.38.


----------



## splatapus

bmoney said:


> POT realized price is sub $200 USD, you can listen to the recent analyst call with BMO for an explanation as to why. That said, I bought back in to POT for 800 shares on speculation of some near term consolidation/cooperation my ACB is $21.89. Mining.com reported on a rumour of an unsolicited bid by BHP on July 1, we'll see.
> 
> The potash industry is in absolute turmoil and POT sees 7MT of annual production declines over the next 3 years. However, they ignore about 7MT of new production and that's not including BHP's Jansen project that alone could produce 4MT by the end of this decade, with a planned 8MT capacity. So why did I buy POT again?
> 
> 1. As POT CEO articulates on the CC, markets for potash are thin meaning there are few large markets that can absorb product. This is why POT didn't bother trying to sell through other markets to net a higher price. By the time new product lands, the local market is unbalanced dropping the price for all producers. It's a zero-sum game and producers stick to their sandbox. Belarus and Uralkali learned this the hard way.
> 
> 2. Jansen project is estimated to cost 14 billion to produce a max capacity of 8MT, that's 1MT shy of POT current output, and close to POT current market cap. Jansen is a huge risk, and the market cannot absorb current production capacity, let alone a single project that represents 15% of global production.
> 
> 3. Potash demand growth has not kept pace with estimates. Farmers are having to deal with pricing pressure because of a drop in relative value of local currency to USD. Crop prices are also lower, creating less incentives for farmers to increase crop yields.
> 
> 4. New production coming online is prolonging the adjustment phase. Projects that were planned when prices were much higher will largely replace lost capacity. It will take several years to grow out of this.
> 
> The industry is better off to consolidate, period. These are billion dollar projects and companies and they will not run themselves off a cliff. Unlike OPEC these actors are rational and their motives are not political. Canpotex elected a pricing over market share strategy, Belarus and Uralkali failed at trying and rumours are they are in talks to cooperate. I'm expecting that some players in this space are absorbed, in an effort by producers to exert control over supply and pricing power. China is looking to make significant investments in potash, they are trying to do an end around and secure their own land rights and form their own company - so far efforts are to block China, they may need to buy themselves in another way. Pure speculation, but at 10 year lows and lots of negatives, something has to give or it will end badly for everyone - just take a look at Uralkali's latest results.


Thank you bmoney for your insights into the fundamentals of the potash industry. It is a refreshing change from the inaccurate technical analysis, constant school-boy speculation, and couch potato promotion on these threads.
I’m not nearly as insightful as you are but here’s what I noticed from taking a look at Potash Corp’s Q1 report:

1.	Cash flow statement – Cash and cash equivalents has decreased from $91 million to $74 million last quarter. Compared with $217 million in Q1 of 2015. Company is burning cash really quickly.

2.	Balance Sheet – Short term debt has increased from $517 million in Q4 2015 to $853 million Q1 2016. Debt has ranged from $400 to $967 million in the past couple of years but I believe that was justified back then when potash prices were not this low and the net income levels can still readily service the rise in debt. But as Ray Dalio says: “Debt cannot rise faster than incomes”, then the situation today is very bad since Net Income for Q1 2016 is only $75 million, down from $370 million in Q1 2015.

While listening to the earnings call for Q1, it seemed the CEO Mr. Tilk kept re-enforcing that he believed demand has already started to stabilize. Forgive me for my poor choice of words, he seemed to be “relying” on that demand/price will stabilize. Of course you can hope, but what if the price stays at this level of $200 in the near future as shown by the recent Indian contract at $227/ton? Should the company become more in-debited? When will it cut its dividend to more accurately reflect the current situation of the company and use the dividend payout ($313 million in Q1!) to steady the ship instead?

Of course I’m as much a speculator as anyone else. The CEO may be conveying the truth in what he is seeing. Maybe tomorrow the monsoon will come to India, or maybe Belarus + Uralkali will come to an agreement. I don’t know. But for me this doesn’t look good so far.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

splatapus said:


> ... It is a refreshing change from the inaccurate technical analysis, constant school-boy speculation, and couch potato promotion on these threads.


That needed to be said. We'll miss you when you find a forum better suited to your high standards.


----------



## splatapus

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> That needed to be said. We'll miss you when you find a forum better suited to your high standards.


Sorry, let me shut my big mouth. Won't mention it again. Thanks for showing me my place


----------



## bmoney

-splatapus

I agree, situation now does not look good. From the time I bought POT I have been completely disappointed by the price action. The stock will move up in the morning and close near the low, even on big moves up the stock cannot stick - this tells me distribution is happening. POT has been a relatively weak performer in light of the rally that favours defensive dividend paying stocks and bluechips. I have positioned myself the last 2 weeks by writing covered calls and today is the dividend record date, using these strategies my ACB is lower by about 60 cents - but I'm still slightly in the red. I will be positioning myself to exit at the next opportunity as I feel it might be to early to go long here. I did this with Teck when it dropped to the teens and quickly reversed my position managing to pick it up in the high $4s for a nice profit. If it doesn't feel right, it doesn't feel right, heck I sold my SU yesterday too and I like that stock - a lot.


That said, the sale of 20% of Uralkali to Dmitry Lobyak (a Belarusian) and friend to Dmitry Mazepin that owns another 20% is a huge positive for the story recanted earlier about a possible deal between Belarus and Urakali. When the news broke on the weekend the market shrugged it off. I still think the thesis for a rebound is there, but learning my lesson on COS, and taking cues from TCK things can get worse from here for the stock. Will it ever get better? Yes, I believe things will get better. I believe that when Lobyak puts a billion dollars on the table he's got plans to make some serious money, and he's already made public his intent to deal with Belarus. The question is when, and as we wait will POT trade at $20/share and then POP? Or will it continue to drift lower in the meantime..The price action the past 2 weeks has me feeling less confident, and I will continue to use strategies to minimize my risk on this trade.


----------



## janus10

I noticed that Brian Kelly from CNBC after the close last night chose POT as his stock pick. Wasn't paying attention as to why.


----------



## pastorash

Given the dividend cut a while back and likelihood of another one and poor prospects in the near term I exited this position today at a loss.


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## Pluto

BAck in 2005 -6 era potash prices were about 160/ton. I'm looking for a reason prices can't go back to that level again and haven't found one yet.


----------



## bmoney

Pluto said:


> BAck in 2005 -6 era potash prices were about 160/ton. I'm looking for a reason prices can't go back to that level again and haven't found one yet.


Got assigned on my $22 call, made a quick $500 profit (that's two covered calls, 1 expired, 1 assigned plus the dividend). You're right, the problem with commodities is that provided there is still margin to be made for someone they will continue to produce and take up market share. POT rallying on what I believe to be the news of Mosaic closing down a mine? Maybe short-sellers covering positions ahead of earnings? Or maybe the potential of cooperation between Uralkali and Belarus has some short taking profits and others going long. Whatever the reason I'm out, will continue to monitor from the side lines. If Uralkali and Belarus announce a cooperation, I will miss the initial run up but may dip a toe back into this one.

In fact, I sold almost all my positions this week except for MFC because this rally stinks! It's built upon defensive stocks like consumer staples, utilities, telecom, other blue chip dividend payers since the fixed income is searching for quality and yield with bonds yields at generational lows - indexers are going along for the ride and have no idea on the fundamental reasons why. Watch tech and bank stocks, they are well off 52-week highs; if they catch up and rally that's a good sign, if not, watch out below.


----------



## Ag Driver

I'm still up about 11%. I'm starting to second guess reading all of your negativity. I've averaged $20.38 and now I'm debating on cashing out. 

Most of my reading was that Potash is forecast to be stable at these levels for the next several years, in and around the $200-$300 mark.

Just looking at short term, I put a limit order at $22.65. I'll buy back in on the dip or the flat line down the road. Just trying to secure some profits. If it goes through, I still want back in as a potential long term hold.

Edit: Filled at $22.65 for about ~11% profit. Hopefully it was the right decision, if not -- I have cash in hand with no loss. No biggy. Now time to keep an eye to get back in.


----------



## treva84

treva84 said:


> The fact that they have only cut it to a 100% pay out ratio makes me worried - they are only thinking short term rather than long term. Yes, commodities prices are cyclical and things will eventually improve, but if management wants my me to invest my heard earned dollars I think they should plan for the worst rather than hope for the best.


Aaaaand they cut the divvy again, 60% this time to $0.10. Watch out below!


----------



## Pluto

Amazingly the price hangs in above 21 indicating fairly strong holders. I suppose the bad news was mostly anticipated.


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## madmoney

What's the thought here, is it good value for a buy and hold at this price or is it going to slip lower?


----------



## pastorash

pastorash said:


> Given the dividend cut a while back and likelihood of another one and poor prospects in the near term I exited this position today at a loss.


And.... glad I got out.


----------



## pastorash

Yes, there is surely long term value here, but a LOT of patience will be required. I will consider getting back in once it looks like the market decides there is evidence of increases in the price of potash globally. Such a dominant position cannot be held down indefinitely, IMHO. If I were to guess, I'd say I'd be buying back in in 2-3 years. For now, I want better and more stable dividends, though I'm betting POT will jump back on the dividend bandwagon, in short order once prices firm up.

Will keep my eye open for now. Down 6% today, and I could see further 5-10% downside from here, assuming prices take even more slight dips globally.

But I'm not an expert, prefer to listen to others with more technical thoughts rather than my joe blow ideas.


----------



## My Own Advisor

My position is very small. I don't mind holding for another 5-10 years to see what happens.


----------



## gibor365

My Own Advisor said:


> My position is very small. I don't mind holding for another 5-10 years to see what happens.


same here... just 144 shares


----------



## Ag Driver

I bought and sold 50 shares a few years back and made ~41% profit. I recently bought and sold 100 shares for ~11% profit.

POT has been making me some money, and I'm having fun with it. When ever I buy, I have intentions to hold for long term, but I either want to secure my profits, or chicken out while ahead! I don't think I would sell at a loss on this one, as I see it as a solid long term hold. I'm looking to get back in in the very near future.


----------



## doctrine

doctrine said:


> Theory: there are few large cap commodity stocks that maintain 6% dividend yields. Fundamentals: A look at the cash flow suggests that if Potash prices drop much further, they will be borrowing to pay the dividend. At this point, institutions will begin to pressure them to cut or they could pay more for capital (lower equity prices/higher debt interest), which is why the theory tends to hold. Investors have figured this out and priced the stock accordingly.


And, not surprisingly, dividend cut. 6% is just a huge warning sign for a commodity producer. Even if they could technically maintain it, they could end up in a price war and are better off investing that money to lower costs and compete better.


----------



## Flash

Dividend yield percentage is based on the cost of share vs dividend of share.

What does that have anything to do if they can maintain a dividend or not? It's all about money flow. If all of the sudden they will double their earnings, but the share price stay the same (because investors don't want to buy), does it mean they can't maintain the dividend? I would think they can even increase it if the current money flow was able to maintain the dividend.

Unless the company is looking to sell more shares (and dilute them), I don't see why I company cares about the cost of the share. They are already sold. They already got their price when they issued them. They are not forced to buy them back. So why does the share price mean anything in terms if a company is able to maintain dividend?


----------



## splatapus

Hopefully what I'm about to say isn't completely useless. Just wanted to share what I think about investing in Potash Corp.

I see 2 risks here:
1) Management is bad. Cannot handle money or operations properly
2) Potash prices fluctuate to PotashCorp's disadvantage

I believe risk 1) is a non-issue here. The management looks very competent. There's depth in executives with many years of experience in the fertilizer field. This is further supported by the price movements of POT.to. Compare historical potash prices vs. the price of the stock. The stock price generally trends identical to potash prices.
















Right so then the only determining factor in investing in this stock is the price of potash/fertilizer (assuming management competence doesn't fall off a cliff). If fertilizer prices go up, you could probably blindly pick any good fertilizer company and make a big profit. Now how do we determine whether potash prices will rise or fall? Isn't this the million dollar question here?


I have no idea how to analyze this macro-economic problem. What influences supply and demand? Do government policies such as those from China a major factor? Does it have to do with the rain seasons vs. farmer education?

If you agree with what I'm saying, I would like to hear your ideas on how to analyze potash/fertilizer prices.


_Aside_
I feel like this is the big reason why commodity stocks are said to be very high risk. You run the risk of 2 things: company operations and commodity prices (which are out of our control). I think few people can accurately predict how commodity prices will move (e.g. base metals, oil, fertilizer, precious metals), but when you do get it right, then picking stocks is like throwing darts at a target board from 1 meter away. Wherever you throw will pretty much be a guaranteed hit. I guess the money is made in the macro for commodities.


----------



## amack081

Pluto said:


> Amazingly the price hangs in above 21 indicating fairly strong holders. I suppose the bad news was mostly anticipated.


I think the news was expected and a lot of investors (incl. myself and other posters above) view the long-term upside as reasonable.

It will be interesting to see if the psychological aspect of investing plays a part in a significant drop. If the price falls under $20/share, I think we could see a mini free fall.


----------



## Ag Driver

We're back at levels that I last bought in at. How much lower can we go here? Has the dust settled?


----------



## My Own Advisor

I don't think so. I'm actually thinking of buying more sub-$20. Maybe another 100 shares. Long-term hold for me.


----------



## Pluto

splatapus said:


> Hopefully what I'm about to say isn't completely useless. Just wanted to share what I think about investing in Potash Corp.
> 
> Right so then the only determining factor in investing in this stock is the price of potash/fertilizer (assuming management competence doesn't fall off a cliff). If fertilizer prices go up, you could probably blindly pick any good fertilizer company and make a big profit. Now how do we determine whether potash prices will rise or fall? Isn't this the million dollar question here?
> 
> 
> I have no idea how to analyze this macro-economic problem. What influences supply and demand? .


http://business.financialpost.com/i...s-face-over-supply-threat-of-their-own-making

That article seems to give a decent overview. Although it is a couple of years old, the principles are the same. It claims production capacity at 82 million tons vs demand at 57 million tons. that's the basic story: - over supply. 
Cutting back on [production to keep the price propped up encourages other companies to build mines. (This is just like OPEC's problem with oil.) Potash Corp and some others end up being swing producers to maintain price, which enables other companies to build more mines. 

Potash corp is a low cost producer with a quality product so it isn't going under anytime soon. But it's share price could come under more pressure. 

Presently I'm not eager to buy POT shares.


----------



## Flash

The only concern is how will potash requirements change with the new GMO's coming out. Will it still be required to grow crops?
http://www.businessinsider.com/crispr-crops-could-end-war-on-gmos?ref=yfp


----------



## accord1999

Flash said:


> The only concern is how will potash requirements change with the new GMO's coming out. Will it still be required to grow crops?


Potassium is one of the critical nutrients for plants. I believe most of the attention for GMOs for that area would be in nitrogen, because it's readily available in the atmosphere and you can use the genes from the small number of plants speciies that can fix nitrogen already. I don't think any such natural capability exists for potassium and potassium isn't in the atmosphere either.


----------



## pastorash

pastorash said:


> Given the dividend cut a while back and likelihood of another one and poor prospects in the near term I exited this position today at a loss.


But... got a surprise dividend from them today, weeks after I sold. Forgot about that. Nice surprise.


----------



## Holland

Potash corp and agrium in advanced merger talks:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...d-in-advanced-talks-to-merge/article31602802/


----------



## Pluto

Holland said:


> Potash corp and agrium in advanced merger talks:
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...d-in-advanced-talks-to-merge/article31602802/


Holy smoke, Batman. 

And all I had was 100 pot, no agu. Darn.


----------



## Holland

I only have 100 left too and I wrote a call for $25 which is the only reason I didn't sell these last 100. Worked out well I guess haha


----------



## leeder

I have some AGU and no POT in my portfolio. If this merger does succeed, what are the potential outcomes? Both are about the same size, with POT at a slightly higher market cap, but AGU has the retail stores in the US where POT can sell its product.


----------



## gibor365

Pluto said:


> Holy smoke, Batman.
> 
> And all I had was 100 pot, no agu. Darn.


 similar situation 150 POT, no AGU


----------



## gibor365

> If this merger does succeed, what are the potential outcomes?


 Monopoly?!


----------



## Ag Driver

Bummer. I pulled the plug too soon. Should have stuck to my gut feeling! hah. Oh well.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Hold both.


----------



## tombiosis

Glad I bought 500 shares at 21 bucks!
Long term hold for me as well.


----------



## cashinstinct

Considering how much it dropped in the last couple of years, good for people who hold or that bought it under current price, but I am happy I did not buy it last year like I thought about...


----------



## Tawcan

Have both, will wait and see how this plays out.


----------



## mrPPincer

382 shares & DRIPping, long term hold, added 150 shares within the last year.
Nice to see some good news


----------



## My Own Advisor

Capital appreciation here we come!! Happy to own shares in both.


----------



## leeder

Latest news on the merger:
http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/n...ral-giant-worth-36-billion&pubdate=2016-09-12

Thoughts?


----------



## doctrine

Looks good, but as with all things, have to see how the combined entity looks before making a decision. Both companies have trended down since the merger was announced. You also won't know what level of dividend you will be receiving. Still, nothing wrong with forming a Canadian giant in the space. If the integrated model preserves their margins, it could be a big upgrade for POT owners.


----------



## leeder

Just wondering, are there any tax implications with this merger from a personal investor point of view? Would the merger be considered a disposition and re-purchase of shares of the new company?


----------



## AltaRed

leeder said:


> Just wondering, are there any tax implications with this merger from a personal investor point of view? Would the merger be considered a disposition and re-purchase of shares of the new company?


How about waiting for the information circular from the companies themselves? I suspect it wil be a tax free rollover...swapping of one brand of shares for another.


----------



## My Own Advisor

That's what happened with SU and COS, no? Tax-free rollover and now you own SU shares at adjusted cost? That would certainly be better for shareholders in a taxable account.


----------



## Eclectic12

^^^^

Odds are it will be tax deferred. I hesitate to call it "tax-free" as that obscures that tax is due someday.

From the many I've had happen in my account - another potential wrinkle is that some had the default broker action to use the tax-deferred rollover and others had the taxable transaction as the default broker action. Missing the deadline meant an unexpected CG or CL.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

leeder said:


> Just wondering, are there any tax implications with this merger from a personal investor point of view? Would the merger be considered a disposition and re-purchase of shares of the new company?


Previous Canadian company buyouts that have happened in my account have put this choice in the investor's hands, with a default broker action taking effect if no instructions are received by the deadline.

As I say in post # 769 - at times, missing the deadline meant the broker default of a taxable transaction was triggered. So it can be important to followup in a timely fashion. :biggrin:

Cheers


----------



## Flash

So I don't get why both AGU and POT price are dropping. I would've thought this would spike


----------



## AltaRed

Flash said:


> So I don't get why both AGU and POT price are dropping. I would've thought this would spike


Maybe because the fundamentals of the potash business continue to fall. What is potash at now?

https://ycharts.com/indicators/potassium_chloride_muriate_of_potash_spot_price


----------



## humble_pie

somewhere i posted that i'd adjusted my diagonal call spread in potash downwards upon hearing the merger news. Right now it's playing upon USD $16 in POT. I was thinking that the euphoria would not last. I'm still not seeing how the merger will bring about fundamental change.

sure, they'll be able to close some mines together. But as separate companies POT & AGU would have closed those mines anyhow. I tend to doubt that, globally, they will be able to market any more successfully together than could the original canPotex consortium.


.


----------



## hollyhunter

The company reported sales (ttm) of 5.15 Billion, earning per shares for the quarter ending Oct 27 BMO at 0.18.


----------



## Pluto

humble_pie said:


> somewhere i posted that i'd adjusted my diagonal call spread in potash downwards upon hearing the merger news. Right now it's playing upon USD $16 in POT. I was thinking that the euphoria would not last. I'm still not seeing how the merger will bring about fundamental change.
> 
> sure, they'll be able to close some mines together. But as separate companies POT & AGU would have closed those mines anyhow. I tend to doubt that, globally, they will be able to market any more successfully together than could the original canPotex consortium.
> 
> 
> .


Reportedly, the new company will stay in Canpotex. AGU buys lots of potash for its retail operation, but very little from POT. That would likely change as the new company will buy all it can from itself. Also, AGU, and the new company, will want to grow by opening new stores, and they are always on the lookout for growth by acquisition. This industry is under stress so they will do what they can to get lean and mean and that should pay off if and when the industry recovers.


----------



## humble_pie

Pluto said:


> Reportedly, the new company will stay in Canpotex. AGU buys lots of potash for its retail operation, but very little from POT. That would likely change as the new company will buy all it can from itself. Also, AGU, and the new company, will want to grow by opening new stores, and they are always on the lookout for growth by acquisition. This industry is under stress so they will do what they can to get lean and mean and that should pay off if and when the industry recovers.




i think you're making excellent points. My USD $16 call soon after POT announced the mammoth betrothal to AGU was only for the short term. The euphoria over the engagement looked rad overdone to me.

now that we're at $16 i'm thinking about putting on more mildly bullish long-term call spreads. Not wildly bullish, just mildly bullish. Hedged.


.


----------



## Pluto

humble_pie said:


> i think you're making excellent points. My USD $16 call soon after POT announced the mammoth betrothal to AGU was only for the short term. The euphoria over the engagement looked rad overdone to me.
> 
> now that we're at $16 i'm thinking about putting on more mildly bullish long-term call spreads. Not wildly bullish, just mildly bullish. Hedged.
> 
> 
> .


yes there was a knee jerk euphoria that petered out pretty quick. good call. I'm just nibbling (on agu cause I think pot is over valued and they likely have considered that in the merger ratio) ....nibbling cause it isn't likely to blast off...just a dividend paying large company that will likely exhibit modest growth at some point.


----------



## Ag Driver

I'm still glad I cashed out at 22.65 with an 11% profit. I'll keep waiting to get back in.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Not cheap enough now?


----------



## Seahawk

*Agrium/Potash*

I am looking to take a position in this sector. Any thoughts or advise on which to buy pre-merger. Have the arbitragers taken out any advantage of one over the other?

Thanks for any thoughts or ideas.


----------



## agent99

I have been thinking of buying in too. But I am not sure that deal will actually go through due to anti-trust laws in USA. If the deal fails, then which would be better to own? I wish I knew. his a link from CBC last September.


----------



## gardner

I have been adding a little to my AGU holdings and that rather than POT because the dividend on AGU is still a little higher I think.

I believe I will want to keep holding the new merged entity once it emerges, but I am concerned that the dividend yield will take a hit.

I can't see any recent news on the merger. Do we know when it is likely to close? "Mid 2017" is coming fairly soon and that is the most precise info I can find.
Any clue if there are liable to be tax consequences (capital gains event) for holders of one or the other?


----------



## My Own Advisor

I hear ya...all I know about is here...
https://www.realagriculture.com/201...pecting-merger-with-agrium-to-close-mid-2017/


----------



## Pluto

My tilt is to buy AG because the valuation is better. This merger looks like a winner, but it won't be a rocket ship - dividends, modest to slow growth. Eventually, which could be a long time, potash price will inch up. 
I'm in awe POT stock price has held up considering its huge p/e and very high dividend payout ratio. I expected it to drop below 20 a long time ago.


----------



## gardner

> will be known by the much shorter name of Nutrien Inc.


http://business.financialpost.com/p...year/wcm/e00529ea-303a-40a5-8671-af9c0d8f8927


----------



## Beaver101

Are you selling POT or holding given the upcoming merger has been approved. POT's merger value is .40 of Nutrien.


----------



## blin10

i bought a ton in the low 20s over time, i'll be holding it for a year+... i believe it'll do well


----------



## leeder

Just wondering how this will work with the shares of AGU (or POT, for that matter) and converting to the new company, Nutrien. I got a letter from TDW that said I can sell (and trigger capital gain) or hold and the shares will be converted to the new company. I will receive 2.23 shares for each share of AGU. In a discount brokerage like TDW, will I actually get the decimal shares? Or will they round up to the nearest 1? For example, if I had 50 shares of AGU, 2.23 share of 50 would be 111.5. Would they round to 112 or would TDW keep it as 111.5?


----------



## fatcat

leeder said:


> Just wondering how this will work with the shares of AGU (or POT, for that matter) and converting to the new company, Nutrien. I got a letter from TDW that said I can sell (and trigger capital gain) or hold and the shares will be converted to the new company. I will receive 2.23 shares for each share of AGU. In a discount brokerage like TDW, will I actually get the decimal shares? Or will they round up to the nearest 1? For example, if I had 50 shares of AGU, 2.23 share of 50 would be 111.5. Would they round to 112 or would TDW keep it as 111.5?


won’t they round down to whole shares and give cash for the decimal part ?


----------



## humble_pie

brokers will never round up, i can guarantee you

they will round down. As for the fractional share, the long way is to find & read the purchase offer plus all its amendments if any. The short way is to rest easy & accept what the broker gives you in the end for the fractional share. This will likely be cash. 

the amount of cash payable will depend upon a conversion pricing formula that will be spelled out in the purchase offer plus amendments. Once again, the efficient response is to rest easy & accept whatever the broker gives you for the fractional share. The big green is going to do the right thing. You will end up with everything that is due to you.

.


----------



## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> brokers will never round up, i can guarantee you
> 
> they will round down. As for the fractional share, the long way is to find & read the purchase offer plus all its amendments if any. The short way is to rest easy & accept what the broker gives you in the end for the fractional share. This will likely be cash.
> 
> the amount of cash payable will depend upon a conversion pricing formula that will be spelled out in the purchase offer plus amendments. Once again, the efficient response is to rest easy & accept whatever the broker gives you for the fractional share. The big green is going to do the right thing. You will end up with everything that is due to you.
> 
> .


i was in a starbucks and i overhead the president of AGU saying something about how he “never liked that leeder guy” and was planning on screwing him on his shares ... just a heads up on the down low, you didn’t hear it from me ...


----------



## gardner

leeder said:


> I got a letter from TDW that said I can sell (and trigger capital gain)


I got, I assume, the same letter. It is irritating that the default option is to convert the shares as a taxable capital gains event. If you want to roll over your ACB on EITHER AGU or POT, you MUST talk to your broker by 22-Dec. I called them yesterday afternoon. I recommend that if you own either AGU or POT, don't wait for the letter -- call your broker right away and let them know your intentions.


----------



## humble_pie

fatcat said:


> i was in a starbucks and i overhead the president of AGU saying something about how he “never liked that leeder guy” and was planning on screwing him on his shares ... just a heads up on the down low, you didn’t hear it from me ...




hey

gotta hang in that starbucks, some smokin hot tips coming outta that starbucks


----------



## humble_pie

gardner said:


> I got, I assume, the same letter. It is irritating that the default option is to convert the shares as a taxable capital gains event. If you want to roll over your ACB on EITHER AGU or POT, you MUST talk to your broker by 22-Dec. I called them yesterday afternoon. I recommend that if you own either AGU or POT, don't wait for the letter -- call your broker right away and let them know your intentions.



i don't own either AGU or POT so i didn't get the letter. The above is a common arrangement in canada though. IMHO it's fine for a company to take this route when merging or spinning off.

i believe the election the shareholder has to make means, technically, the equivalent of selling the original shares at the original cost base (no gain or loss), then buying the re-orged shares at the same cost base. It used to be nightmarish difficult to accomplish. Nowadays it's a cinch. If the broker will do this election on behalf of individual investor clients, even better.

tis the holiday season, be grateful for small blessings ...


PS gardner i do like your avatar. It looks like you might be carrying your lunch or a few groceries in your right hand; but what have you got in your left hand though? 

.


----------



## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> hey
> 
> gotta hang in that starbucks, some smokin hot tips coming outta that starbucks


yeah, same place where i overheard the tip on nortel ... got in at $124 ... sweet ... you want the address ?


----------



## gardner

humble_pie said:


> It looks like you might be carrying your lunch [...] but what have you got in your left hand


Thanks Humble. In my right hand is a bag of corn. In my left is a towel.


----------



## leeder

fatcat said:


> i was in a starbucks and i overhead the president of AGU saying something about how he “never liked that leeder guy” and was planning on screwing him on his shares ... just a heads up on the down low, you didn’t hear it from me ...


I KNEW IT! These corporate executives are always looking to screw the little guys! lol


----------



## Beaver101

leeder said:


> Just wondering how this will work with the shares of AGU (or POT, for that matter) and converting to the new company, Nutrien. I got a letter from TDW that said I can sell (and trigger capital gain) or hold and the shares will be converted to the new company. I will receive 2.23 shares for each share of AGU. In a discount brokerage like TDW, will I actually get the decimal shares? Or will they round up to the nearest 1? For example, if I had 50 shares of AGU, 2.23 share of 50 would be 111.5. Would they round to 112 or would TDW keep it as 111.5?


 ... I'm with BMO Investorline and the corporate action says the POT merger with AGU is .40 of the new company called Nutrien. Not sure why TDW is telling you that you're getting AGU and 2.23 shares of that???


----------



## humble_pie

gardner said:


> Thanks Humble. In my right hand is a bag of corn. In my left is a towel.



hmmmn, not sure what to make of this symbology

perhaps if you do take a spill, the corn in the right hand is to sow plentiful seed upon the earth, while the towel in the left hand is to serve as an emergency tourniquet?

ps oh dear, no safety helmet?
pps nice hair though


.


----------



## leeder

Beaver101 said:


> ... I'm with BMO Investorline and the corporate action says the POT merger with AGU is .40 of the new company called Nutrien. Not sure why TDW is telling you that you're getting AGU and 2.23 shares of that???


I'm assuming you are a POT investor. I think you get less shares, likely because of the difference in per share price between AGU and POT. 

For example, if you own 100 shares of POT, your current value is about $2500. At $2500, an AGU investor would own about 17 shares of AGU. As a result when the merger occurs, 100 shares of POT would give you about 40 shares of the new company (100x0.4). 17 shares of AGU would give you about 37 to 38 shares of the new company (17x2.23).

Since the merger of both companies is roughly about equal (with POT market cap at about 52% of the total POT and AGU merger), the breakdown of the number of shares in the new company should theoretically come to roughly the 52-48 breakdown. Indeed, the above example shows POT investors get about 52% (40 shares of the total 78 shares), while AGU gets 48% of the shares (38 of 78 total shares).


----------



## Beaver101

leeder said:


> I'm assuming you are a POT investor. I think you get less shares, likely because of the difference in per share price between AGU and POT.
> 
> For example, if you own 100 shares of POT, your current value is about $2500. At $2500, an AGU investor would own about 17 shares of AGU. As a result when the merger occurs, 100 shares of POT would give you about 40 shares of the new company (100x0.4). 17 shares of AGU would give you about 37 to 38 shares of the new company (17x2.23).
> 
> Since the merger of both companies is roughly about equal (with POT market cap at about 52% of the total POT and AGU merger), the breakdown of the number of shares in the new company should theoretically come to roughly the 52-48 breakdown. Indeed, the above example shows POT investors get about 52% (40 shares of the total 78 shares), while AGU gets 48% of the shares (38 of 78 total shares).


 .. your assumption is correct - I'm a POTash investor. 

While I get your shares breakdown math, what does this mean in the (share)value of the new merged company Nutrien? Seems like POT shareholders are getting a better deal???


----------



## leeder

Yes, POT gets a higher value of the new company based on the fact that POT as a separate company has a higher market cap than AGU. From a business standpoint, I never really understood why AGU would do this deal in the first place since AGU has generally outperformed POT in the past few years. Alas, what's done is done now.


----------



## leeder

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/saskatchewan/agrium-potashcorp-merger-nutrien-1.4465479

Looks like it'll begin trading on January 2nd under the ticker NTR.


----------



## Beaver101

^ Thanks for the post/link.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Looks like the stock will be interlisted as well. Good if you want to buy in CDN $$ and transfer to USD $$ RRSP or vice-versa. 
https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=jdw0201


----------



## leeder

For the previous POT/AGU investors, have you guys received the shares for NTR yet?


----------



## dotnet_nerd

Yes, I have my NTR shares with Interactive Brokers.

(Oops, shouldn't have mentioned IB. HumblePie will accuse me of being a shill again)


----------



## leeder

hmm... I haven't received my shares yet, and I'm with TDW.



fatcat said:


> i was in a starbucks and i overhead the president of AGU saying something about how he “never liked that leeder guy” and was planning on screwing him on his shares ... just a heads up on the down low, you didn’t hear it from me ...


Maybe I'm really getting screwed!


----------



## yyz

BMOIL still hasn't managed to switch the shares over yet but with these clowns it doesn't surprise me


----------



## P_I

leeder said:


> hmm... I haven't received my shares yet, and I'm with TDW.
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe I'm really getting screwed!


My NTR showed up in TD DI this morning and the corresponding AGU were gone. I choose Option 1, Tax Deferred, and double-checked to ensure that TD DI shows my cost basis correctly after the merger.


----------



## leeder

I didn't respond to the letter...


----------



## P_I

leeder said:


> I didn't respond to the letter...


Hopefully you held the POT/AGU in a registered account. The Corporate Action Notice indicated that Option 2 (Default option) was a taxable disposition of the shares.


----------



## gibor365

Today it got posted on my CIBC IE account. I got 0.4 shares for every POT share I had. There is a remainder 0.4 shares, I assume that I will receive cash for 0.4 shares , right?

btw, what gonna be dividend for NTR?


----------



## leeder

gibor365 said:


> Today it got posted on my CIBC IE account. I got 0.4 shares for every POT share I had. There is a remainder 0.4 shares, I assume that I will receive cash for 0.4 shares , right?
> 
> btw, what gonna be dividend for NTR?


I believe Nutrien will try to keep a similar dividend policy as AGU. However, it is subject to approval from its board. I would guess it would be about $0.40 USD quarterly payout.

On another note, I got the disposition of the AGU shares. Honestly, I was 50-50 whether or not I wanted to keep the shares anyway even though I failed to respond to the corporate action notice. In any case, they paid me out at $69 per share of TSE:NTR without the trading commission.


----------



## Beaver101

BMOIL has converted POT to NTR. I would think the dividend payment will be inline with the conversion ... POT's pre-conversion annual dividends = $.40, then NTR's annual dividends =$.16? even though one analyst's reports say NTR's trailing yield is 1.87%.


----------



## leeder

https://www.nutrien.com/investors/shareholder-information/dividends


----------



## Taan

P_I said:


> My NTR showed up in TD DI this morning and the corresponding AGU were gone. I choose Option 1, Tax Deferred, and double-checked to ensure that TD DI shows my cost basis correctly after the merger.


Hi, 
I checked TDDI today and saw my cost basis is incorrect - I had a loss which I should've harvested at year end but didn't get around to it. Do I need to call them to ensure my loss in POT is reflected in NTR? Or is this foregone as a result of the merger? Appreciate any insights.


----------



## gibor365

leeder said:


> I believe Nutrien will try to keep a similar dividend policy as AGU. However, it is subject to approval from its board. I would guess it would be about $0.40 USD quarterly payout.
> 
> .


As of Dec 29, AGU yield was 3%. POT - 2%, so you think that NTR yield will be about 3%?


----------



## leeder

Per the Nutrien website that I posted earlier, "Nutrien expects to target a stable and growing dividend that reflects the anticipated strengthened cash flow profile of the combined companies. Subject to market conditions and Nutrien Board approval, we expect to establish a dividend payment similar to the previous Agrium level of dividends, adjusted for the number of Nutrien Shares outstanding." That's why I'm thinking it'll be in the 3% range (around $0.40 USD per quarter.)

It would not surprise me if they declare a higher payout though - if I were to guess, I'd say they'll declare a payment of $0.45 to $0.50 USD.


----------



## AlwaysLearning

I am interested to hear thoughts on this company since the Potash-Agrium Merger.

I had owned Potash for a few years prior to the merger. 

We are now sitting at a drop of over 18% in just over 30 days since the merger which is nearly 3 times the drop of the index in this time frame. I believe this is now oversold and is a good bargain at the moment but I am interested to hear other thoughts. 
Is there something in the fundamentals to explain the significant drop that I am missing?


----------



## gardner

I agree that it is likely oversold. I rely a lot on the stats in Google finance and there is nothing for NTR as yet. I imagine some analysts have done the work to calculate the combined company's probable EBITA range and effective PE and so forth. For my part I am interested in what sort of dividend they might pay, and some sort of payout ratio calculation on AGU and POT going in might help clarify what to expect. Personally I am kind of in a wait-and-see mode with NTR for now.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Same. I would like see what dividend they will pay and long-term intentions of that. Wait and see. 52-week price is looking appealing though.


----------



## leeder

leeder said:


> I believe Nutrien will try to keep a similar dividend policy as AGU. However, it is subject to approval from its board. I would guess it would be about $0.40 USD quarterly payout.


https://www.nutrien.com/investors/shareholder-information/dividends

It's official... $0.40 USD quarterly payout! And if you don't mind me taking a minute to brag, I did call it right on the dot back in January.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Remains inter-listed right? NTR and NTR:US? Maybe good to buy on CDN side and gambit over to USD side.


----------



## mrPPincer

My Own Advisor said:


> Remains inter-listed right? NTR and NTR:US? Maybe good to buy on CDN side and gambit over to USD side.


Why move it to the US side? (unless you need USDs for something).

From the Nutrien site..



> ..beneficial holders (i.e. shareholders who hold their common shares through a broker or other intermediary) whose intermediary is a participant in CDS Clearing and Depositary Services Inc. or its nominee, CDS & Co., will receive their dividend in Canadian dollars, calculated based on the Bank of Canada daily exchange rate on March 29, 2018.


https://www.nutrien.com/investors/shareholder-information/dividends


----------



## mrPPincer

fwiw I held my POT shares on the USD side, but after the merger I moved my Nutrien shares to the CDN side.


----------



## jargey3000

any current thoughts on NTR....going forward, as they say.....


----------



## Beaver101

^ Still holding and it's (price) going up. Still Canada's darling in the agricultural space.


----------



## Pluto

Prior to the merger they were touting "synergies" post merger. I'm holding ntr to give time for such synergies to emerge. In the meantime it looks like pricing of products is going well giving a boost to the stock. No reason to sell at this point.


----------



## peterk

I've sold a bit now.


----------



## fstamand

Thoughts on Agrium for investing ? Looks like it's in purchase territory


----------



## londoncalling

Do you mean Nutrien?


----------



## dubmac

I can't find NTR on this site anywhere.
I've been following this one. price is down, but there is only a 2 yr history on it. Dividend is in USD. P/E is low, but I don't know whether P/E is significant in this case.
Morningstar suggests that NTR is undervalued. It says fair value is around 65, but I don't understand what that means.
I don't have many materials stocks in pf, and this one is on my short-list.
What kinds of ratios, analysis or metrics would you evaluate to establish whether this one meets the conditions of being over-valued or not? Ben Graham classified stocks as undervalued when P/E is under 11. NTR is around 6.8.


----------



## m3s

dubmac said:


> I can't find NTR on this site anywhere.
> I've been following this one. price is down, but there is only a 2 yr history on it.


There's been several threads and discussions over the years but the CMF search function is useless. The 2 year history is because of the POT/AGU merger

I traded POT cycles with meager gains and now hold NTR. Boring stock but I'm long until someone finds an alternative source or element to potash/nitrogen or we start to eat less food.

Note that it's one of the Cdn companies that pays out USD dividends


----------



## agent99

m3s said:


> Boring stock but I'm long until someone finds an alternative source or element to potash/nitrogen or we start to eat less food.
> 
> Note that it's one of the Cdn companies that pays out USD dividends


It's a stock that I have been meaning to buy. 3.79% yield at present. I thought it would be in ZDV (that I now own some of), but it does not seem like it. There is only so much potash in the world, and this company controls a good part of it. 

As m3S said - Its a merger between Agrium & PotashCorp. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/agrium-potash-merger-to-be-called-nutrien-1.785385 Surely they were discussed here?


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> Surely they were discussed here?


Many times but you have to use google _"site:canadianmoneyforum.com keyword" _rather than the useless forum search


----------



## agent99

agent99 said:


> It's a stock that I have been meaning to buy. 3.79% yield at present. I thought it would be in ZDV (that I now own some of), but it does not seem like it. There is only so much potash in the world, and this company controls a good part of it.
> 
> As m3S said - Its a merger between Agrium & PotashCorp. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/agrium-potash-merger-to-be-called-nutrien-1.785385 Surely they were discussed here?


Did a moderator not post recently that the search function had been updated? I seem to recall it, but it could have been on another site.


----------



## dubmac

Yes...I have seen the Pot-Agrium thread. But the price history of this stock extends 2 yrs only, for reasons mentioned above


----------



## Eclectic12

Not sure it is all that much better as I seem to recall more than the few things it found.

https://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/archive/index.php/t-106225.html
https://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/137198-Cash-in-lieu-tax-treatment


It also seems strange to me to be starting a company specific threat in the "Investing" section instead of the "Individual Stocks/Equities" section.


Cheers


----------



## agent99

dubmac said:


> But the price history of this stock extends 2 yrs only, for reasons mentioned above


The company didn't exist before that. What price history would you be looking for?


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> NTR ... Dividend is in USD.




true, but watch out if your account is at scotia iTrade or at roybank. They mess with the dividend. Insist on paying it in CAD so if you're holding stock in USD account in order to receive USD dividend without FX fee, your best-laid plan will gang a-gley. 

other brokers deliver USD dividends like little lambs, save & except for questrade which is a special case unto itself.


----------



## dubmac

agent99 said:


> The company didn't exist before that. What price history would you be looking for?


I am just stating that NTR, as a company, does not have a lengthy history (5, 10 years) if one was looking at long term stock price performance.


----------



## moderator2

I merged previous threads on POT and a discussion on the POT/AGU merger into this new NTR thread.

If you want to get a sense of historical performance, you could search images.google.com for charts of Potash stock price (POT) before the merger. Not the exact same company, but it's relevant.


----------



## Eclectic12

dubmac said:


> I am just stating that NTR, as a company, does not have a lengthy history (5, 10 years) if one was looking at long term stock price performance.


Sure ... but unless management changed dramatically with lots of outsiders coming on board as part of the merger and/or there's a dramatic change in the potash business, will that matter all that much?

Are people really worrying about the new Suncor having an eleven year history as a merged company?


Cheers


----------



## agent99

Eclectic12 said:


> Sure ... but unless management changed dramatically with lots of outsiders coming on board as part of the merger and/or there's a dramatic change in the potash business, will that matter all that much?
> Cheers


As part of the merger, they did have to divest themselves of some of their business units. Presumably this could affect performance. And, Agrium and PotashCorp were two completely separate companies, so hard to merge their previous performance into something meaningful for the new company. Potash is an important part, but the new company does a lot more than just Potash.

I would have no hesitation in buying NTR as a long term hold. I don't think owning the stock will make anyone rich. But the world needs food and farmers need fertilizers and the other products NTR offers. A good business to own.


----------



## dubmac

Eclectic12 said:


> Sure ... but unless management changed dramatically with lots of outsiders coming on board as part of the merger and/or there's a dramatic change in the potash business, will that matter all that much?


Eclectic. 
I am curious to see the news and effects that the recent 2019 USA-China Trade scuffle(s) have had on this company, it's estimates, and how the stock price has responded in this and in earlier periods of tension ( including the decade 2010-2019 for comparison). That's all. It's just part of the picture that I like to see when I research a company. call it a personal preference if you like - nothing else.

I realise that this stock won't necessarily make me millions, but I want diversification in the materials sector. India, China and other populous countries will need fertilizers for crops etc.


----------



## AltaRed

I call all these things commodities, i.e. price takers. Such businesses need to be low cost, or near low cost, suppliers relative to the competition to have sufficient margins to outlast a squeeze. Commodities will always be highly cyclical with price volatility. NTR is an attempt to integrate up the food chain to have a retail element much like an integrated oil company like Suncor. It is just that the primary business is still the commodity component in the case of NTR.


----------



## m3s

Lately I get a pile of 52 week high alerts and a few 52 week lows - NTR. On the flip side when the market is down NTR should stay on its own cycle and keep paying the USD divvies


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> Eclectic.
> I am curious to see the news and effects that the recent 2019 USA-China Trade scuffle(s) have had on this company, it's estimates, and how the stock price has responded in this and in earlier periods of tension ( including the decade 2010-2019 for comparison). That's all. It's just part of the picture that I like to see when I research a company. call it a personal preference if you like - nothing else.
> 
> I realise that this stock won't necessarily make me millions, but I want diversification in the materials sector. India, China and other populous countries will need fertilizers for crops etc.



i offer the below contribution hesitantly since idk how helpful it might be ...

but the big potash customers in asia - china, india - are also of course buying from NTR's giant rivals in russia & other former soviet states (belarus being one iirc). Big potash mines up there, huge competition for NTR.

iirc experienced POT/NTR watchers are therefore also watching news from those companies in russia/belarus, ie any labour troubles or other production setbacks they may have affect global potash prices.

also IIRC china & india only bid for potash in big mega contracts a couple times a year, so things get intense around those trade dates.

never owned POT/NTR but those ^^ are the stories i'd look into. On the other hand NTR has a good dividend & as someone says upthread, OK to hold without too much angst for the ultra long term.


----------



## james4beach

I have my own database of historical stock prices for Canadian listed stocks. For those who might be interested, here are the charts of POT and AGU from roughly 2005 until they merged into NTR in 2018. My data is split adjusted but not dividend adjusted.

POT only had one strong rally from 2006-2008, but had terrible performance ever since then. AGU's price history is much more promising. Note however they both had very severe volatility with maximum drawdown of roughly 75% loss.


----------



## dubmac

Mr. Morningstar says this about NTR. 
Bears Say
- Volatile pricing and demand for crop nutrients have characterized Nutrien's business during the past
few years, highlighting the cyclical nature of the company's cash flows.
- New greenfield potash mines from K+S and EuroChem, along with brownfield expansions from
existing producers, threaten to drag down potash prices.
- Through subsidies and state-run companies, governments influence about half of the nitrogen and
phosphate markets worldwide

Competition in this industry seems rather high, costs (especially phosphate) are also a challenge for NTR. Then there is the international market, Belarus, and the influence that they wield.


----------



## AltaRed

Things appear to have not changed since I owned POT at one time years ago. I got out cleanly enough but I had come to the same conclusion. Too much low cost competition elsewhere with much of it having a state (government) hand in it. No thanks. In commodities, you have to be in the bottom (good) quintile (or two) in costs in order to have some safety in margin compression AND not subject to state dictated production quotas from other operations regardless of cost/profit.


----------



## AlwaysLearning

I had owned Potash before the merger and still have a bit which is down a lot right now. (hindsight)

That said I am now looking at it and at the current price I see more upside than down. This is one area which should not have been impacted by COVID... 
Again maybe the low cost competition mentioned above? Still likely lower than it should be now.

Any thoughts?


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## londoncalling

Not sure if there is another thread on Nutrien elsewhere on the forum and invite the mods to merge if that is the case.

Meant to post yesterday when I first read the news.

Nutrien Names Schmidt CEO as Magro Departs Fertilizer Maker (msn.com) 

Curious at to how this will affect the company and the stock on a go forward basis.


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## londoncalling

New Nutrien CEO to carry out current strategy, focus on potash price (msn.com) 

Market liked the news shares up 4%


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## newfoundlander61

Was a top pick yesterday on BNN Market Call.


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## newfoundlander61

I looked at a 10 year chart today for NTR and it was around $75 and change at its peak.


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## londoncalling

newfoundlander61 said:


> I looked at a 10 year chart today for NTR and it was around $75 and change at its peak.


I am not sure what you mean by 10 year chart. PCS and Agrium merged in 2018 to become Nutrien.


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## newfoundlander61

Saw this headline this morning: "*Extreme drought' is threatening parts of the Prairies, says Agriculture Canada". *Will this effect NTR 's overall business or do they mainly export?


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## KaeJS

Like a fool, I sold this at $60 thinking I could buy back in for $56.

Whoops.
I wish I still owned it.


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## newfoundlander61

Any comments on an entry point into NTR, I don't consider this one a long term hold type stock but one that you can make money in during the correct part of the cycle that it appears to be in currently. Thanks for any opinions.


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## Ponderling

It does have its cycles. I would sit on the side lines and watch for when it heads towards a 52W low. 

I use it as a buy and hold. Have owned it for more than 5 years, prior to the new ticker after the merger. 

It and a few like MRU and FTS are kind of a proxy for a lower rate of bond holdings given my approach to retirement.

There is always a market for fertilizer.


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## MrMatt

I just bought COW *E*TF a decade ago.

Hah, that was a funny typo


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## londoncalling

I owned PCS and post merger now own NTR. Here are some items to consider regarding NTR potash and fertilizer in general. BHP intends to come online in the next few years with its Jansen project which will increase supply to the market considerably. Capital spending has been limited the past number of years for all the miners due to the commodity price but is starting to see a resurgence. NTR has spent a lot recently at its Rocanville mine. Fertilizer sales will follow the agriculture market. I do not know a lot about its US operations. Potash sales to India and China are a large factor in this stock's performance and Supply from Russia and Australia can impact those sales. I would not myself be buying at current prices and am slightly underweight this stock. I do expect upside in the near term in the commodity sector in general and NTR should benefit as a result. As Ponderling mentions upthread there is always a market for fertilizer.


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## londoncalling

Nutrien Announces CEO Transition (tmx.com)


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## Freedom2022

Thanks. A new CEO can be good or bad. I own the stock. I will watch out to hold or not.


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## Sam Sun

Starting my due diligence on NTR today. I find the best motivation to conduct DD is to own the stock rather than watch it. The beauty of WealthSimple is that I can open a small position without being insulted with $10 commission. Plan on buying 10 shares today. A quick peek at MorningStar shows NTR is overvalued in their opinion.

ADDED: Limit order filled: 5 shares @ C$91.00


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## Sam Sun

*



Nutrien Non-GAAP EPS of $2.47 beats by $0.09, revenue of $7.27B beats by $710M

Click to expand...

Nutrien Non-GAAP EPS of $2.47 beats by $0.09, revenue of $7.27B beats by $710M | Seeking Alpha *


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## fstamand

I find it's very expensive at the moment. Like most of stocks really.


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## londoncalling

I would agree that NTR is overpriced currently. Commodities are definitely in an upcycle so my expectation is further price appreciation for the next while.. All those tech gains got to go somewhere. I have a full position so will ride the wave up and then trim back on the way down. rinse and repeat.


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## gardner

After Canada, Russia and Belarus are the next largest producers of Potash. There are economic sanctions floating around now, possibly affecting their ability to participate in the worldwide market. I think there's some room for NTR to do well if there are tailwinds on volumes and prices in global markets.


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## Freedom2022

I owned NTR for a long while since Potash was converted.
I am glad I kept the stocks although it didn't perform until last year.
I hold on to it with a decent 2 % yield in the low interest rate for the last decade.


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## Boiler Room

I bought some NTR at $65 around 2018, and at $50 in 2020. I recently sold 1/4 position to lock in some gains. The company expected earnings of 10/share in 2022, and dropping considerably for 2023, but that was before Russian sanctions and the impact of wheat prices due to Ukraine. I would now not be surprised to see the stock hit $150. I won't be buying, but probably selling some in the months ahead.


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## londoncalling

Nutrien to increase potash production amid Eastern Europe supply worries | The Western Producer

Disruption to rail shipping may cause further price escalation. Many of these mines can ramp up production easily provided there is room in the barns for storage.


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## MrMatt

I simply bought the Agriculture ETF (COW). It's done well.


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## Ponderling

Trimmer my position NTR recently. 

Took the resulting funds and invested in other sectors a well as other materials stocks that have not shone so brightly like this one has recently.


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## londoncalling

Share price broke $140 this morning. Between inflation, commodity price escalation and the conflict in Europe (sanctions on Russia and threat of loss of growing season for Ukraine) the price has gone parabolic. Ag stocks are also going into a period of seasonal strength. Have considered trimming as well but with only an slightly overweight position and nowhere to allocate the proceeds I intend to hold into the summer. Euphoria seems to be the theme in much of the commodity space. At some point money will move from equity to fixed income if rates continue to rise but I expect other sectors to see that hit before commodities. I am currently revisiting a target price to trim.


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## zinfit

NTR has a great North American farm supply distribution network. The biggest market for its potash is the rich USA midwest farm belt. Prices for grains , soybeans and corn are at record highs. The farmers will be maxining out of fertilizer inputs this spring. The Ukraine and Russia export at lot the above named into the international market. The war and the sanctions will be impairing that part of the market. It all adds up to increased demand, reduced supply and higher prices. Nutrient should have unbelievable FCF when they report in May. Nutrient is also a big supplier of other type of farm fertilizer. Mosaic is another fertilizer company worth a look. These two are the top dogs. I don't find MS very useful in analyzing this type of stock. They are focused on the past whereas I think one most be looking at the future with these stocks.


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## londoncalling

The company is not quite at full production for current cost of production. There is plenty of room to ramp up production further at its Saskatchewan mines should there be shipping and storage capacity. I am expecting 2 very solid quarters. My experience with this industry is that it has multiple years of up and down cycles in a row but the recent activities overseas may impact that time frame either direction.


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## zinfit

londoncalling said:


> The company is not quite at full production for current cost of production. There is plenty of room to ramp up production further at its Saskatchewan mines should there be shipping and storage capacity. I am expecting 2 very solid quarters. My experience with this industry is that it has multiple years of up and down cycles in a row but the recent activities overseas may impact that time frame either direction.


Eventually. I suspect Nutrient and BHP will work out a mutually advantageous arrangement to market potash into Asia through one marketing agency.


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## londoncalling

Nutrien Delivers Strong First Quarter Results and Responds to Global Supply Uncertainties | Nutrien 

No surprise that this was a strong quarter for Nutrien. It's rival Mosaic did not do near so well. Should be some interesting hints regarding announcements about what to do with the windfall at their upcoming Investor day. I hope they do not by back shares at these prices and instead deploy the capital back into the company. I hold the US version but would consider trimming at $150-$160 C$.


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## londoncalling

Stock down 8% so far today. Looks like everyone has forgot about the strong quarterly results and forward guidance.  Such price swings are amusing. 30% runup YTD was also not a realistic return. The market is being mainly driven by emotion and its starting to show across the board. I haven't looked at volumes but volatility present in most stocks.


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## zinfit

londoncalling said:


> Stock down 8% so far today. Looks like everyone has forgot about the strong quarterly results and forward guidance.  Such price swings are amusing. 30% runup YTD was also not a realistic return. The market is being mainly driven by emotion and its starting to show across the board. I haven't looked at volumes but volatility present in most stocks.


Yes fundamentals mean nothing right now. The market is pulling everything lower. Will just hunker down and wait this bear market out.


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## james4beach

If one believes the commodity bull market is intact (and will last for years), this may not be a bad time to add to NTR


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## Boiler Room

james4beach said:


> If one believes the commodity bull market is intact (and will last for years), this may not be a bad time to add to NTR


I don't get why NTR is so low. During it's Q1 report, it raised FY guidance to $18/share, so it trades at a forward PE of just 6. First Belarus and now Russia , (both major producers) have been hit with fertilizer export sanctions, and I can't see these coming off for years. So these earnings should be sustainable for some time.


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## james4beach

Boiler Room said:


> I don't get why NTR is so low. During it's Q1 report, it raised FY guidance to $18/share, so it trades at a forward PE of just 6. First Belarus and now Russia , (both major producers) have been hit with fertilizer export sanctions, and I can't see these coming off for years. So these earnings should be sustainable for some time.


Perhaps there's a reluctance of investors to believe in the sustainability of earnings, after the multi-year commodity bear market we just went through. A lot of people were hurt during that bear market, and people have long memories.

Energy stocks have a similar issue. I'm long XEG and recently looked at the forward P/Es of the sector. They're very low as well. So you ask yourself: for profitable companies, with very low P/E's, how is everyone not buying them?

Perhaps investors are waiting a bit longer to see if the commodity bull is really intact.


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## londoncalling

The recent announcement of a share buyback this week although typically a good sign would have been better when shares were in the 90s. Also there are some concerns around delayed seeding in the Northern US resulting in lower fertilizer inputs. The earlier sanction was positive for NA farmers and NTR as prices for fall crops would be much higher with the potential loss of planting season in Ukraine. This is why the stock shot up in March. I think the commodity bull may see some interruptions but I think it will extend beyond 2022. Production ramp up is easier in potash/fertilizer than it is in O&G.


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## zinfit

Most farmers would have purchased their fertilizer last fall. They do that for income tax purposes. Come this fall they will be buying their fertilizer supplies for 2023 . Potash isn't used much on the prairies. It is however an important fertilizer in most other countries.The US midwest uses a lot of potash.


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## londoncalling

You are correct that these orders would have been made prior to spring planting for the write offs and other reasons. However, in some instances the amount being applied has been reduced compared to when forecasters were expecting an increase as well as additional orders due to potential changes in crop selection. Share prices are forward looking and last falls sales have already been factored. With yield prices being so high expectation for the ag industry looked great. Unfortunately, weather is always an unknown factor in production. Droughts outside of NA, in particular India and China will have more impact on potash sales for Australia and Canada than what happens closer to home.


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## zinfit

londoncalling said:


> You are correct that these orders would have been made prior to spring planting for the write offs and other reasons. However, in some instances the amount being applied has been reduced compared to when forecasters were expecting an increase as well as additional orders due to potential changes in crop selection. Share prices are forward looking and last falls sales have already been factored. With yield prices being so high expectation for the ag industry looked great. Unfortunately, weather is always an unknown factor in production. Droughts outside of NA, in particular India and China will have more impact on potash sales for Australia and Canada than what happens closer to home.


Close to 70% of their potash sales has been to the USA with the sanctions in place their market has been expanded . If farmers get a decent crop in North America and crop prices hold up they will be booking a lot of product this fall for delivery in the spring of 2023. They will be booking deliveries at very high prices. The same applies to the other fertilizer products .


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