# Your Favourite Oil Stocks. I'm buying.



## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

Given the drop in the markets in general and the drop in oil prices in specific, I'm looking to initiate my first position in oil. If nothing sways me, I'll be buying COP this week. I would prefer a CDN company, but I can't seem to love the financials and metrics and margins as much as their U.S counterparts. Anyways, please tell me your top 3 favourite oil stocks, CDN or U.S.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Nothing really interests me but the big two giants, Exxon Mobil and Chevron. 

I like CVX better long term, and will consider initiating a position once I change back from a bear to a bull. Attractive yield, low P/E, growing earnings, growing dividend, good looking chart, high correlation to the price of oil, and numerous quality gas stations.

All of that being said, I tend to like XOM better for short-mid term trading. If for no other reason than it has a lower share price.

The Canadian oils I would have no patience for. Horrible price action.

If I were you I would wait until the smoke clears and oil starts rising. Patience will save you money.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Argonaut said:


> Nothing really interests me but the big two giants, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
> 
> I like CVX better long term, and will consider initiating a position once I change back from a bear to a bull. Attractive yield, low P/E, growing earnings, growing dividend, good looking chart, high correlation to the price of oil, and numerous quality gas stations.
> 
> ...


when smoke will clear it'll be too late to get in


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

this sector is the proverbial beaten-down-out-of-favour at the moment & hard times may continue, so it's not for the faint of heart.

it's a fine opportunity to build or add to a core portfolio imho. Likely it's too early to add drilling services, but there are superb canadian companies in this category, canada-slamming to the contrary. It's time to identify the best of these. I for one tend to prefer drillers across south america plus hungry, innovative juniors like gasfrac & trican.

the baltic dry is a widely-watched index that's considered to be the earliest progosticator of global economic dip or recovery. Where bdi goes, energy has to follow. Right now bdi is rising slightly.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

I think you are early on buying oil/resource stocks. Nothing makes oil stocks sicker than recension and this is the beginning.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Oldroe said:


> I think you are early on buying oil/resource stocks. Nothing makes oil stocks sicker than recension and this is the beginning.


it is a very good entry point, obviously don't go in on oil, but some companies yielding over 6% divis, that's hard to pass


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

COP is IMO a good company, I wouldn't buy it yet though.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

hey i didn't say buy, i said identify the best candidates.

recessions are excellent for pruning & weeding out the weakest drillers, as rigs sit home & phones don't ring ...

a boutique-y stock related to entrepreneurial energy is GMP capital. As significant underwriters in this sector, it's always feast or famine for GMP.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Bet you regret buying oil at this point when things start looking more positive maybe 6 months I will join you.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Oldroe said:


> Bet you regret buying oil at this point when things start looking more positive maybe 6 months I will join you.


when things will start looking more positive oil will not be at it's low... yes it might go down more but with this market volatility I wouldn't be surprised if it'll go up 300 points tomorrow and oil jumps $5


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

is the hearing OK today roe ?

it was get ready, not go.

here's something for the auditory nerve:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfJNHapFz6U&feature=related


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Smokin' video humble*










source


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

I've noticed a large increase in insider and institutional buying of oil stocks. The tropical waves are lining up off Africa now, it's only a matter of time before one hits the US oil fields. Suncor and CPG are the two I've added.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

this from seekingalpha.com: http://seekingalpha.com/article/286403-how-income-investors-can-prepare-for-the-empire-s-decline

this has been sitting in my aunt's tfsa for a long time, it used to be an income trust ... just popped $3 off it's low 2 days ago on a strong buy recommend but still attractive

*Enerplus (ERF)*: Enerplus is a Canadian company that engages in the acquisition, exploitation and operation of crude oil and natural gas assets. ERF operates on a land base of approximately 420,000 net acres within such well-known plays as the Bakken/Tight Oil play, the Marcellus Shale Gas play, and Deep Basin play. The total estimated proved plus probable reserves were 306,237 thousand barrels of oil equivalent consisting of 149,853 thousand barrels of crude oil, 11,576 thousand barrels of natural gas liquids, and 752,187 million cubic feet of natural gas and 116,662 million cubic feet of shale gas. The reserve life for the company is 10.7 years and production outlook is estimated to be 78,000 to 80,000 BOE/day.
The production is almost an even break of 53% natural gas, 47% crude oil and natural gas liquids. The goal for Enerplus is to increase total production growth by 10% – 15% through 2012. The oil production side of the house is planning to increase by more than 30% over the next two years. To make this growth a reality, ERF announced and completed the sale of a portion of their Marcellus natural gas interests in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Maryland, for US$580 million. The proceeds from the sale will be used to repay current outstanding bank debt resulting in the entire $1 billion credit facility being undrawn and available to support future growth strategies. The company’s dividend is paid monthly and looks to be stable for a long time to come, when considering that the payout rate is running at 55%. *The yield is 8.6%, which should make an income investor take notice. *


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

crescent point, CNQ, talisman, arc energy; drilling services trican, ensign & tuscany international. Considering gran tierra. 

not mentioning gas producers, gas frackers or pipelines since this thread seems to be calling for oily issues only.


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

Hi:

Rebalance buy 300 SU at 31 recently, rebalance sell 200 at 47 a half year ago.

hboy43


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I like CPG (please don't look at the P/E ratio tho), SU and COP


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

Congrats to the level-headed dip buyers. I added to various energy companies while oil was in the sub-85 range until I used up all available cash at the time. Instead of sharing those names I wanted to point out the BNN Market Call clip from tonight, which does a decent job of explaining a bullish case for oil prices going forward.

Just part one needed: http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip517724

In summary, emerging economies energy demand has more than made up for the slowdown in US/Europe, OPEC spare capacity on the decline. Eventually, increasing world demand may meet/exceed supply. How will the market solve this? Higher oil prices.

To me this means that energy companies can take off to the upside despite any type of slowdown/recession/depression in developed nations and/or their stock markets.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

"People are forgetting the fundamentals, emerging markets!". Those didn't exist 2.5 years ago right?


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

One bad year in the past decade or so is pretty good to me. At least back your sarcastic comment up with a decent counterargument.

The best counterargument, imo, would be a worldwide depression as outlined in Armstrong's latest. More countries taking on austerity measures = deflationary = economic contraction instead of the inflationary quantitative easing type of policies.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

dubmac said:


> I like CPG (please don't look at the P/E ratio tho), SU and COP


I have exactly same favorites 

also I liked DAY, still holding, but dissapointed


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

IMO the energy trades are off while stagflation/recession is in effect. The fund belonging to that guest on BNN took losses twice as large as his benchmark index in 2008 and seven times as large year to date. It's missing July and the August market crash so it's a bit hard to take his advice seriously. Plus he's citing Goldman Sachs research. Goldman was bearish on oil throughout the Egypt/Libya crisis (link) while prices ascended then did a 180 degree turn to bullish at the end of May (link) after commodities topped out for the year and still maintain this view (link). They nearly always trade against their clients and the public. I think there are buying opportunities in energy but not yet, my 6-mo target for WTI is $70 then $30-$50, partly based on slowing global growth but mostly based on a few more systemic bank failures.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

little bear says WTI at 30-50 in 6 months.

if i had to pick a number i'd say 78-88.


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## bigpun87 (Aug 17, 2011)

anyone have thoughts on Canadian Oil Sands (COS)


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

FRU and AVF looks nice and have close to 10% dividends. What do you think?


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## King Tut (May 3, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> little bear says WTI at 30-50 in 6 months.
> 
> if i had to pick a number i'd say 78-88.


Not sure what you see in WTI. Their sales have gone down considerably over the last two years. I think you are speculating.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

tut we are posting about wti - west texas intermediate.


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## King Tut (May 3, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> tut we are posting about wti - west texas intermediate.


My bad, thought you were talking about W&T Offshore, which has the WTI ticker!


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

little bear might be right, but i'm thinking that conditions that would see wti at 30 would set us all back into the stone age ...


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

gibor said:


> FRU and AVF looks nice and have close to 10% dividends. What do you think?


imo stick with biggest companies in this sector, those little once might get crushed hard...


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

Gibor : I notice AVF got hit hard in the 'meltdown' a few weeks ago along with a "million" others but came back fast - very fast. Do have an explanation for its remarkable recovery ? cheers.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

dogleg said:


> Gibor : I notice AVF got hit hard in the 'meltdown' a few weeks ago along with a "million" others but came back fast - very fast. Do have an explanation for its remarkable recovery ? cheers.


IMHO, AVF and FRU have very good yield of 10% , many oil investors like them (expecially AVF), so it behaves more like some high dividend blue-chip stock...

Also, I think there are some reasons to be bulish on those players,
- this year there is prediction of much more major hurricanes in US than usual, so oil price can go up (btw, when already hurricane season starts?)
- seasonally , fall is good time for oil/gas stocks
- Middle East won't be sleeping, nobody knows what gonna happen next
- phycologically it's easier to invest into players who has 10% divvidend vs large cap SU who has 1.5%, if oil price will go up, all oil stocks will go up...

I still didn't buy AVF or FRU, but watching them closely....
P.S. So far from oil/gas I hold only SU, DAY and COP


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## dogleg (Feb 5, 2010)

Gibor : Thanks . I have taken a quick look at the Aven Ex 09 -'10 Financial 'highligtes' and notice they show a tot. revenue loss of about 28% for that period and a net income loss of 107%. Chances are their dividends are not sustainable ?? More study needed before I buy it I think. Cheers.


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

They have been transitioning to a pure energy play the past couple of years.
They have been selling off their real estate holdings and investing the money in energy. See this from the 2nd QTR. results.

The Corporation is continuing with the disposition of its real estate portfolio in order to focus on its more energy related divisions. Two portfolio properties remain, including an industrial property in Ontario and the "larger centre" Western Canadian theatre package. We are now targeting to have transactions in place on the remaining properties by the end of the fall 2011. Sale funds generated will be redeployed into growth opportunities in the energy divisions. The portfolio continues to be 100% leased and perform as expected.










dogleg said:


> Gibor : Thanks . I have taken a quick look at the Aven Ex 09 -'10 Financial 'highligtes' and notice they show a tot. revenue loss of about 28% for that period and a net income loss of 107%. Chances are their dividends are not sustainable ?? More study needed before I buy it I think. Cheers.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

With energy taking a hit the last couple days I thought I'd give this thread a bump. I am considering putting in an order for CPG. I know they are releasing their earnings report in a week.:cower: I'll probably take a nibble or throw in a bid 3% lower than current price just to start a position. I seem to have a hard time sitting on cash...:stupid:


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I've got 100 CPG.

I know humble holds CPG as well.

Can't go wrong with the dividend. I've been holding since August 11th, 2011.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

bought more arx,pgf,erf..... watching cpg as well, cve, pwt, su, cos


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

londoncalling said:


> with energy taking a hit the last couple days i thought i'd give this thread a bump. I am considering putting in an order for cpg. I know they are releasing their earnings report in a week. I'll probably take a nibble or throw in a bid 3% lower than current price just to start a position. I seem to have a hard time sitting on cash...:stupid:


cnq/xom


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

If you want to buy an oil company yielding 7-10%, try first to buy one that covers the dividend with net earnings (unlikely). Next, try to find one that at least has a profit (less difficult but no guarantee). Try not to buy a company that is paying a 10% dividend and reporting massive losses at the same time. Payments from cash flow are not everything, and "cash flow" definitions change from company to company. And some of the bigger payers aren't even covering their payments with cash flow.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

^ Who cares?

Stock price matters. Not what the company is doing. (in some instances)

If people are willing to pay, the stock price will stay.

CPG pays dividends out of their ***, but yet it's still $40+. People are willing to pay.

Supply/Demand.


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## Ethan (Aug 8, 2010)

doctrine said:


> If you want to buy an oil company yielding 7-10%, try first to buy one that covers the dividend with net earnings (unlikely). Next, try to find one that at least has a profit (less difficult but no guarantee). Try not to buy a company that is paying a 10% dividend and reporting massive losses at the same time. Payments from cash flow are not everything, and "cash flow" definitions change from company to company. And some of the bigger payers aren't even covering their payments with cash flow.


Check out COS. It is essentially a holding company with a 36.74% interest in the Syncrude project.

2011 operating cashflows - 1,958m
2011 capex - 644m
2011 dividends - 533m
Total debt is relatively small at 1,132m
Market cap is 9,930m, ~5 times operating cash flows
Dividend yield - 5.85%

Q1 report will be interesting as their March production was reduced due to an unplanned 30 day outage on one of their cokers. I think the stock has been unjustly punished. It's my top pick in the energy sector.


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

I like pipelines, as regardless of the movement of oil prices, they earn steadily. Atlas Pipeline is one of my favorites.


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

anyone like BNP (Bonavista)? It is at a record low right now. Seems like a good buy. They are a medium sized player in western Canada with a lot of land.


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

FYI.

CARRIE TAIT
13:40 EST Wednesday, Apr 11, 2012



A warm winter, sluggish demand and stubbornly high supply have sent the price of natural gas tumbling to its lowest point in a decade, putting small Canadian energy companies in peril and threatening the balance sheets of their bigger counterparts.

Natural gas dropped to $1.984 (U.S.) per million British thermal units by the end of Wednesday, marking the third day in a row that the price dipped to a fresh 10-year low. Supply is outpacing demand, even as some energy companies slow, or stop, production at some wells and shift their attention to more lucrative commodities like oil and butane.

As a consequence, energy companies without price hedges, joint venture partners, access to proposed export terminals on the West Coast, or projects other than natural gas, are doomed to have their balance sheets stretched. Access to credit is being chopped, investors are fleeing, and some experts say the natural gas prices could continue to plummet, putting further pressure on weak companies.

All of these factors mean cheaper prices for consumers, but producers will find it more difficult to turn a profit – potentially forcing them to shed workers and further shelve investment plans.

There is a flipside: As companies flounder, activity in North America’s natural gas fields will eventually slow down. As production declines, prices will eventually rebound.

But experts warn that could take months.

The United States is burning an average of about 12 per cent less natural gas a day than usual, said Rob Lauzon, a senior portfolio manager and energy specialist at Middlefield Group. Consumption south of the border has dropped by about six billion cubic feet a day, he said.

Encana Corp. , North America’s second-largest natural gas company, may be able to tough it out, Mr. Lauzon said. Its size, hedges, and joint venture partner, work in its favour – at least for now.

“I’m not saying they are going to skate through, but they do have some hedges in place,” he said. “But if this continues for two or three years, all gas producers would be in trouble.”

The Canadian giant, which admits it misjudged how low natural gas prices would fall, has about two billion cubic feet a day, or about 65 per cent of its expected 2012 natural gas production, hedged at an average New York Mercantile Exchange price of $5.80 (U.S.) per 1,000 cubic feet.

About 505 million cubic feet a day of Encana’s planned 2013 natural gas production is hedged at an average Nymex price of $5.24 per 1,000 cubic feet, chief financial officer Sherri Brillon said a conference call in February, according to a transcript.

To further shield itself, Encana recently struck a multibillion-dollar joint venture partnership deal with Mitsubishi Corp., sold assets, renewed and extended its credit facilities, completed a debt offering, and continues to search for more partners.

“We are well positioned for the rest of the year,” Ms. Brillon said. “But we recognize the price exposure we have in 2013, and as a result, we are accumulating cash from the announced transactions to fortify our balance sheet heading into 2013.”

Mr. Lauzon, the portfolio manager in Calgary, said Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. is “mildly profitable” at today’s natural gas prices, and Bonavista Energy Corp. can make a small amount of money on one of its plays. He also favours Progress Energy Resources Corp. because it has a big joint venture partner; Tourmaline Oil Corp.; and Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd. Middlefield owns shares in these companies, he said. But even though these companies are in a better position compared to competitors, they are still a drag for investors.

“They are still getting creamed,” he said.

Cequence Energy Ltd., Fairborne Energy Ltd. and Chinook Energy Inc. are among the small players with higher costs, and are thus more likely to suffer, Mr. Lauzon said. Small companies with so-called dry gas are short on bargaining power with the banks, and investors are shying away.

“They are cutting their [capital expenditures] to try to live within their cash flow, but it is becoming very tough when there is no cash flow.”

Sandy Edmonstone, head of National Bank Financial’s energy investment banking team, said companies continue to produce gas despite losing money because the money they do pull in helps cover some of their fixed costs, such as running processing plants. Until the industry shuts down more wells, supply will continue to outpace demand and low prices will continue to rock the industry, he noted.


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## 0xCC (Jan 5, 2012)

clovis8 said:


> anyone like BNP (Bonavista)? It is at a record low right now. Seems like a good buy. They are a medium sized player in western Canada with a lot of land.


I picked some up late last week. I should have waited a couple of days, I picked it up at $18.55. If natural gas stays low BNP could cut the dividend as they are gas weighted. Not for the faint of heart right now.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Good news for Cdn oil producers*

Enbridge plans to reverse the flow of the pipeline
between Montreal and Sarnia.

As it is now, imported oil is pumped from Montreal to Sarnia.

Reversing the flow will bring oil from western Canada
to refineries in Ontario & Quebec.

Enbridge map:
http://www.enbridge.com/AboutEnbridge/InteractiveMap.aspx


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## rassmy (May 7, 2010)

I prefer the big and international companies like Shell (RDS.B) and Chevron (CVX), dividend yields respectivly 5.5% and 3.6%.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

There are currently several good buys in the Canadian oil and gas patch including:

Big guys:

Canadian Oil Sands
Suncor
Encana


Mid-sized:

Petrobakken
Petyo
Longview Oil
Gran Tierra Energy

Small:

Marquee Energy
Birchcliffe Energy


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*13 new things Barclays learned from its oil sands tour*



> Barclays analysts visited 14 oil sands companies recently and
> came back with the conclusion that Canadian Natural Resources, MEG Energy,
> Imperial Oil, Nexen and Suncor were better bets than Cenovus, Canadian Oil Sands and Talisman.


http://business.financialpost.com/2...rce=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__lsa=3618b959


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

When I went to work at 5 am this morning, oil futures were up 2%.... was thinking a big day was ahead for my COS, PBN, and SU holdings. Too busy at work to check the markets, so I get home just now to find that I lost about 2% on these stocks.

WTF happened.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Jon_Snow said:


> WTF happened.


Right?

Imagine how angry I was when I dumped a significant sum of money into the market this morning on a buy limit order. Also could not check the markets and made a big "boo-boo".


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