# BCE Inc. (BCE.TO)



## Argonaut

Thinking about selling BCE if it ever receives a bit of a short term bump, and switching to Telus for my telecom play. Normally I wouldn't be concerned about the tepid price action and chasing the better returns. What I'm concerned about is seeing Bell's products. Their TV system is quite frankly junk. 

I don't know what it's like out east, but in the west most people are either with Telus or Shaw. People are deserting Shaw en masse and switching to Telus for the total package - phone, TV, and internet. Optik TV is really great, and Telus doesn't charge overuse on internet. Someone I know called up Shaw and asked if there was any reason not to switch to Telus. They simply replied, "No".

What's your take on the telecoms?


----------



## Causalien

Having lived on both sides:

Telus is actually an OK company to deal with, consider their size, I would expect them to be like Bell. I am especially amazed by their technicians and IT staffs that I had to call up on some of my *ahem* problems.

Bell is on my permanent black list of a company to never touch or deal with. I did not even bother buying their stock after the teacher's pension deal fell through and it presented a great buying opportunity.

I used to work for Shaw and disagreed with what managements told us to tell customers. So I had never touched their products so cannot offer any meaningful comment.

I am using nice words in protection of potential future libel. But basically multiply my comments 100 fold.

Disclaimer: Owns no long or short position on any of them.


----------



## Dmoney

I bought into Telus at roughly 36 so obviously I'm extremely happy with what it has done since then (March 2010). I'm looking to possibly replace my Telus position with Bell, Roger's or Shaw if I feel they have a better outlook. 

I see Bell as having little room to grow its top line, but its revenue stability and free cash flows are both exceptional. Roger's may have the most room to grow based on the hit it took on q3 2010 earnings, and little recovery since then. Telus, Bell and Roger's all have similar valuations at the moment, strong cash flows and similar operating environments.

Going forward I would base my decision on which of the three will be able to expand its customer base, and which one will suffer least from competition from new wireless entrants. I'd look more indepth into where the majority of subscribers are located geographically and then take a look at where competitors' coverage is located and predicted to go. 

I know very little about Shaw but have heard good things so may have to give it a more detailed look.


----------



## RachII

I switched from Shaw to Telus a year and a half ago partly for the total package you identified, but mostly because of our experience dealing with Shaw customer service and atrocious telephone wait times. Other than the Telus moron who almost cut me off on my commute this week I have little to complain about. Wait times are fine and their IT support has been very helpful. When I called about a billing error they made ($5.00 charged too much), the problem was fixed immediately. And a credit for a promotion they currently had for new customers was offered to me, without my asking giving me a television service I already pay for, free for three months. I guess time will tell if Telus becomes just another humongous corporation. But at Telus I actually feel like a customer where at Shaw it seemed we were a necessary nuisance!


----------



## Eder

Telus,BCE,Rogers & Shaw all suck from a customers perspective. I don't even want to get into why I cancelled my Telus dsl,cell and land line haha.

Having said that I don't know how I could ever sell my BCE stock, its a cash cow.

I think owning any of these companies is a good move...owning all of them is even better.


----------



## Axcell

I'd stay out of all for now..... at least until this UBB and political game is over.
Liberals/NDP talking about removing ALL forms of UBB, making all carriers forced to unlock phones, etc. With government intervention likely happening, bad press is surrounding these companies. Look at what the government did to Shoppers Drug Mart...


----------



## webber22

Most people own the big 4 one way or the other, if its in the company pension, Canada pension, broad stock indexes etc. The profits go right back to Canadians anyhow, due to the foreign ownership rules 

They got to be big and profitable by eating up any competition that came around. A lot of people don't even know that the big 4 own these players:
Fido, Chatr, Virgin Mobile, Solo Mobile, Loblaw's PC Mobile, etc
I bet once Tekksavy (a current competitor) builds up it's client base, guess what, they'll be added to the list.

OWN ALL 4


----------



## ddkay

Tek already launched their mobile product @ http://www.talksavvy.ca/. The website is quite terrible at explaining how to use it. You already need to have a mobile provider with unlimited local calling to any 5 numbers (my5, fab5 etc). When you purchase "TalkSavvy" you get a smartdevice app or PSTN number which you add to your unlimited 5 list, and use that to dial out. Essentially dialing twice, like using a calling card. I don't think they'll get many customers.


----------



## MrRed

I think that Telus is the smartest telco out there right now. They are the only big player who hasn't decided to go into the content production side of things and focus on delivering on their core competency.

Hopefully they will stay away from trying to control everything on their network and just let people get to whatever content they want from whatever source they choose rather than waste money on making their own content.

For those who doubt, just look at the rise of Netflix here and Hulu in the U.S. for evidence that content agnostic delivery networks are what people want.

Disclaimer: I own some T in my portfolio.


----------



## Betzy

Oops wrong thread


----------



## davext

I own Shaw, BCE, Rogers, and Telus stock. I think Telus has the most going for it with their new subscribers for cable. 

Rogers has fallen out of favour. BCE is good, it'll keep moving every time they bump up the dividend or report good results. They're a big cash cow anyway. 

I wish I never picked up Shaw but I only picked it up recently. I think it's too behind in technology.


----------



## dubmac

Telus and BCE are excellent telecom stocks! I'll never buy Shaw. 

I remember reading an article in Globe and Mail magazine http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ension-for-shaw-ceo-draws-ire/article1913638/
that explained how Jim Shaw had recently "retired" from his leadership position in the company as was now receiving $16,000 per day (yes... per day) as part of his retirement package. All this while the company struggles. There is no way I could, in good conscience, buy Shares in Shaw.


----------



## Jungle

BCE results beat estimates. BCE raises dividend (again), this time by 5%. Stock is up almost 2.5% ish.. 

Disclaimer: We own BCE.


----------



## Financial Cents

I love Ma Bell.

I own a bunch of it and as long as they pay dividends, I always will own them. I like getting a steady paycheck as an investor. 

I will also eventually own Telus. Just no cash to invest right now and Telus is priced too high at this time.

You can never go seriously wrong with buying and holding any of the major telcos: BCE, Telus and Rogers. 

Nobody is going to get rid of their cable, internet or phone anytime soon.

Mark
http://www.myownadvisor.ca/


----------



## Cal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...nge-for-bce-delivering-growth/article2330261/


----------



## gibor365

Cal said:


> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...nge-for-bce-delivering-growth/article2330261/


I hold BCE and RCI.B. In my opinion RCI.B has more growth and div growth potential


----------



## Med

Does anybody now the reason of today's drop of BCE? Q4 results seem to be good?!


----------



## doctrine

Nice drop in the stock - and hidden in the results, a 5% dividend increase. Back up to 5.5% at current market price.


----------



## dubmac

doctrine said:


> Nice drop in the stock - and hidden in the results, a 5% dividend increase. Back up to 5.5% at current market price.


sweet!
I picked up more shares today. 


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120209-713495.html


----------



## KaeJS

I screwed up huge today.

I didn't know BCE was releasing earnings this morning and I bought 500 shares at $40.34.

I got my *** handed to me on a golden platter. My own fault for not knowing when the earnings release was. I saw the stock hit $40.30 and was down 50 cents and thought it was a good buy. Then when I got to work and saw the GlobeandMail, I realized they had an earnings release today and my jaw dropped, hit the floor, and came back to smack me in the head. By, then, it was too late.

Took a nice loss of $350.


----------



## doctrine

I would say you will probably get it back. Even if it holds, you'd make it back in 3 months in dividends alone. If you hold it that long


----------



## KaeJS

I am not too worried about it. I know I will get it back eventually. It's just such a pain that I could have bought at a lower price and had to go through this.

Oh, well. I learned a lesson.

What I'm really hoping for is the chance to sell it above $40.50, after the ex dividend date.


----------



## Eder

I think you can sell it for $46 by Sept.


----------



## KaeJS

_"BCE also announced a $250 million NCIB (Normal Course Issuer Bid) program in December 2011 that is now 77% complete"_

Won't this push up the share price?


----------



## doctrine

They've retired a lot of shares over the last 2 years, but the stock price probably reflects a lot of it. Their dividend yield is quite solid amongst large caps, the stock price could shoot up to $45 quite quickly and still be yielding 5%.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I screwed up huge today.
> 
> I didn't know BCE was releasing earnings this morning and I bought 500 shares at $40.34.
> 
> I got my *** handed to me on a golden platter. My own fault for not knowing when the earnings release was. I saw the stock hit $40.30 and was down 50 cents and thought it was a good buy. Then when I got to work and saw the GlobeandMail, I realized they had an earnings release today and my jaw dropped, hit the floor, and came back to smack me in the head. By, then, it was too late.
> 
> Took a nice loss of $350.


I also took a hit on PEP today. Bought abour week ago I had about 2% gain ...and today it dropped 4%  Wanted to average down, but didn't have cash on this account today...


----------



## ddkay

> Postpaid net additions were down from the year ago period, underscoring the continued competitive environment BCE and other incumbent phone companies face from Wind Mobile and other new entrants.


Burn, burn, burn!!! Nothing makes me happier than Bell/Rogers missing earnings.


----------



## 0xCC

doctrine said:


> Nice drop in the stock - and hidden in the results, a 5% dividend increase. Back up to 5.5% at current market price.


The dividend didn't get bumped up this quarter, they used some confusing language in the release to make it sound like they increased the dividend. The dividend for 2012 was increased as part of the last earnings release. No change in the dividend in this release.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Burn, burn, burn!!! Nothing makes me happier than Bell/Rogers missing earnings.


Telus missed earnings, too.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/telus-profit-rises-on-tv-data-growth/article2333642/


----------



## hboy43

KaeJS said:


> Took a nice loss of $350.


You sold?

hboy43


----------



## gibor365

April deividend will be $0.5425 , last one and Oct 2011 was $0.5175 , July 2011 was $0.4925 ...so growth is pretty good


----------



## Eder

I bought more today as well as Telus. I like to play defense.

That div yield is too high to ignore and both companies are committed to raising it and can easily afford to.


----------



## gibor365

Bought more BCE at $39.22 , with current yield dividends are more than 5.5% and looks pretty save. Now BCE together with RCI.B, PM, COP and RY my biggest holdings


----------



## DanFo

I bought 100 shares today as well @ 39.16


----------



## humble_pie

ok buy up a storm if U like but U guys are not worrying about the significant bce drop in postpaid mobile accounts ?

these are the most lucrative accounts. Concern has always been that competitive newcomers will drive not roads but vast endless throughways into the incumbents' empires.

so i wonder if being divvy-wise is not being telco-foolish.


----------



## KaeJS

hboy43 said:


> You sold?
> 
> hboy43


No. But I wish I did.


----------



## ddkay

People dumping landlines for cellular only service or cellular plus VoIP for a fraction of the cost, and faster internet connections are cannibalizing their TV revenues. A telcos largest growth will always come from wireless. Now people including myself are completely fed up with their predatory billing practices, we are giving the finger to Bell/Rogers/Telus and joining new entrants. If an AWS iPad 3 / iPhone 5 are announced and they win enough spectrum from the 700MHz auction, watch out, a mass exodus is coming.


----------



## Barwelle

How does one gain from these up-and-comers? (besides saving on phone bills by switching)

Of the top of my head, there are Mobilicity and Wind Mobile. But both are both privately owned...


----------



## Eder

BCE getting it's lunch handed to it has been predicted the last few years but it has raised dividends and outgrown most growth companies.

I think its not a bad spot to be till interest rates go up a bit. Its a great spot to be while 3rd world Euro countries are face planting though.

I'm probably wrong as usual but that's some of my thoughts.

I bought more today @$39.26...


----------



## ddkay

If you are an accredited investor you can try through here http://www.globalive.com/about/investors/

Otherwise there is no easy way to invest in Wind Canada. VimpelCom own the majority of Wind Canada and are publicly traded (NYSE:VIP), but they also own operators in 19 other countries so it's not a pure play.

Last I checked Mobilicity is backed by OMERS and Canadian banks, no way to access them again unless you're an accredited investor and have lotsa money for them.


----------



## gibor365

Barwelle said:


> How does one gain from these up-and-comers? (besides saving on phone bills by switching)
> 
> Of the top of my head, there are Mobilicity and Wind Mobile. But both are both privately owned...


And what % of ppl knows about those companies?! Personally, I've never heard names like Mobilicity and Wind Mobile... 
And now ask what % of ppl knows about BCE or RCI.B 


And if you already have Bell or Rogers, it's too much hassle to switch... and I wouldn't do it for saving of $10-20 per months ...
More than that , Rogers (and probably Bell) have different loyalty programms, i called them recently and got 15-20% discount on all services as I'm long time customer...

btw, in US similar situation , just replace BCE and RCI.B with T and VZ


----------



## Jungle

Yup, we threaten to cancel every year and get about 30% off our bill. Been doing this for 3-4 years now. (Rogers) But..at $1200 per year, I still think we are giving them too much money. 

I think next year I might look at doing an OTA set up with Netflix, freephoneline.ca and high speed internet through Rogers. 

However been collecting dividends off BCE since 2010 and enjoyed three dividend hikes.


----------



## ddkay

Those loyalty discounts are only going to get bigger 

Burn burn bvrn


----------



## ddkay

Sheeple don't think about loyalty. Loyalty doesn"t pay. They think about saving money long term. Wind has only been around 2.5 years, subscriber growth is up 100% from a year ago period. Give them another 3 years, the more contracts robellus can't roll over the faster they are left hanging by a thread. Light it up!


----------



## gibor365

Jungle said:


> Yup, we threaten to cancel every year and get about 30% off our bill. Been doing this for 3-4 years now. (Rogers) But..at $1200 per year, I still think we are giving them too much money.
> 
> I think next year I might look at doing an OTA set up with Netflix, freephoneline.ca and high speed internet through Rogers.
> 
> However been collecting dividends off BCE since 2010 and enjoyed three dividend hikes.


Another think...you'll get additional discount if you hold more services... so if you change provider , you have to change all together... again, this is too much hassle for doubtfull reward  
The landline phone is the only service we changed from BCE to Rogers and than to Vonage - and this is because we are calling a lot abroad...

P.S. Majority not switching so fast from provider to provider, just take a look at "advisors" topic... even though it's known for a long time that MF robbing investors, those MF, Seg, LSIF funds still making billions and will contimue to do for many years.


----------



## ddkay

Use these sites to see maps of Canadian cell coverage and track changes on a monthly basis

http://loxcel.com/celltower
http://www.coveragemapper.com/maps.php


----------



## Financial Cents

My plan is to own them all. Got 3/4 so far. Need more RCI.B and T.

By owning them all, I don't have to worry which one will perform better or worse or not.


----------



## Barwelle

I don't exactly know what an accredited investor is, but I'm sure I don't have enough money to be one anyway!

OK Yup... just googled it. Wikipedia says you must have at least 1mil net worth... I've only got another $975,000 to go! Oh well, maybe they'll go public someday... 

gibor, their kiosks are starting to show up in malls and such so they'll get more well known. They _are_ generally cheaper, so that helps. Like ddkay says, money matters to people. (And it's a cost that is more visible than the MERs on their mutual funds.) Too bad they're only in really high population areas, otherwise I'd go with them... I have a choice between Bell and Telus if I want to avoid roaming charges.


----------



## ddkay

Remember it's not only Wind/Mobi/Public with plans to dilute the big 3's marketshare. There is also Quebecor, Shaw, and Bragg (EastLink). Although Shaw seems to have shelved the idea for now.

gibor you probably save much more than $20/month per line, and you also get more features. I never used data for more than a few months on Rogers because it was so expensive ($30 for 500MB!). On Wind anyone can add unlimited data for just 10 bucks.

Switching providers is really easy if you have no contract. Its losing 3 year rollovers that the big 3 have to fear most. My contract expired in November and they couldn't offer anything good enough to keep me, so I ported my number and left.

The biggest problem with Wind from a consumer perspective is that call centres are almost all outsourced. Telus outsources to Manila, Bell to India, we're no strangers to this game. On the plus side, wait times are very short. With Rogers I am usually on hold for 40 or 50 minutes, at Wind they answer right away. It also depends what time it is though. They just opened a new call centre in Windsor so hopefully those people are more competent.

The other problem is handset selection. Almost nobody makes AWS only or pentaband 3G handsets. T-Mobile USA and our new operators use the same network design. If T-Mobile USA receive a iPhone 4S2 from Appl, our new operators do too. Most people will walk away to the big 3 if they can't get their iThing fashion accesory. It will make a huge difference, I would not be surprised to see the new operators subscriber numbers triple the year that happens. Hopefully this upcoming September. If they get the 700MHz license, they can software upgrade their whole network to LTE overnight and that automatically gives access to the iPhone 4S2 (700/1700/2100). LTE should be on everyone's radar in 2013.

Barwelle did you open coverage mapper to double check? They are in most urban areas and are expanding rapidly, keep checking those maps, the data is pulled from this government database and much more current than advertised coverage. It's a safe bet you can get it there soon, as well as in Manitoba, and Saskatchewan and the maritimes (NB, NL, NS, PEI) before the end of 2012.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Those loyalty discounts are only going to get bigger
> 
> Burn burn bvrn


Did you have a bad experience or something?

And all those small time companies like Wind and Mobilicity are garbage.

I don't even pay attention to them. If you're not Rogers, Bell or Telus, you don't even exist. Their coverage is garbage. The quality of connection is garbage. 

You get what you pay for. And for that reason, I'm a die hard Rogers customer. I get quality service everywhere I go - and that's the purpose of a cell phone.

What good is a GPS on an iPhone if you can't even get data reception? LOL


----------



## GOB

Wind works for some people, but others will hate it. As soon as you are outside a "Wind zone" either don't use your phone or be ready to pay massive fees. That's not worth it to me to save a few bucks a month. Not to mention travelling across Canada.


----------



## Eder

The thing is that the big 3 are into much much more than just providing cell service. 

Rodgers is into:
wireless voice/data provider,cable tv internet & telephoney,retail stores,radio & television broadcasting,runs a shopping channel (look out amazon!),publishes various magazines,are getting into sports entertainment...maybe appletv

Bell is equally diversified.

They may not be the best solution for young people to cheaply play Angry Birds on their star war phone, but they do print cash and like to return alot of it to us investors.


----------



## humble_pie

there are arguments pro & con the big telcos. I still have all my bce, though. Not planning to sell. There has been nervousness over inroads from the upstarts for how many years now ? the truth is, far longer than anybody can remember.

besides it tickles the fancy to have one stock where the big nobs sit around conference tables talking about are poo ...


----------



## m3s

BCE profit is highly dependent on Cdn politics and being able to wrap the CRTC around their finger. I follow the active revolt against the BCE-CRTC team but I don't see anything changing soon (Canada has the biggest rip off on telcos) **owns BCE until Cdn policies get with the rest of the free world


----------



## ddkay

Yes KaeJS, horrible experiences with Bell and Rogers all related poor quality of service, unstable internet connection, super-overcompressed-pixelated TV, and predatory billing. They will never see a cent again.

As for coverage, you are comparing operators that started securing land/property lease agreements and putting antennas up 20 years years ago to one that started yesterday. It takes time and more customers to put up 1000s of towers per province. The advantage new operators have today is the cost of equipment has fallen to a fraction of the first generation networks.

In the 3 months I've been with Wind, I have never roamed inside the GTA. If your daily commute is between like Waterloo and Toronto you might have a problem, not all intercity/provincial highways are covered yet. Few people actually travel that far on a regular basis.


----------



## Barwelle

ddkay, now I know where you got Robellus from... I watched the Public Mobile roam rage ads on their website... That's funny stuff.

I checked all their coverage maps, and no go for me. Problem is, I live in the country. I do have Rogers coverage though, didn't know that before. I'm thinking I'll give Bell a call and threaten to switch over to Wind, see what happens. I don't think they would realize that it wouldn't benefit me to switch. Look out everyone, here comes a $0.0000000000001 discount from your dividend.


----------



## londoncalling

ddkay said:


> As for coverage, you are comparing operators that started securing land/property lease agreements and putting antennas up 20 years years ago to one that started yesterday. It takes time and more customers to put up 1000s of towers per province. The advantage new operators have today is the cost of equipment has fallen to a fraction of the first generation networks.


I would agree 100% with that statement. These upstarts may eventually impact the big 3 in a major way at some point but when?




ddkay said:


> In the 3 months I've been with Wind, I have never roamed inside the GTA. If your daily commute is between like Waterloo and Toronto you might have a problem, not all intercity/provincial highways are covered yet. Few people actually travel that far on a regular basis.


I would disagree 100% with this statement. What you say may be true for those that work and live within the GTA. Just as people in Manhattan may never leave their borough. Most people travel out into these roaming zones. Nobody ever drives from Toronto to Montreal? Ask anybody in Calgary if they ever leave the city and I assure you most of them do. The world is bigger than GTA. These upstart packages may be great for users who never stray from the coverage zones but how many people want to use their phone when they travel for business, vacation etc? I am in full support of anything that can remove a monopoly and lower consumer prices. These companies definitely will suit a certain segment of the population and if the big 3 start losing some business perhaps rates will come down. I don't own any of the telcos right now but I am considering adding BCE with part of my RRSP money this year.


----------



## ddkay

You can only go with gut feel for these things so my guess is without an iPhone 5 the big 3 will slow bleed customers to Wind/Mobi/Public for the next 2 years and start feeling maximum pain in 4 to 6 years. The churn rate on BCE isn't at threatening levels yet.

Toronto to Montreal is going to be difficult for new ops because Videotron bid more on Quebec spectrum than anyone else did for the rest of Canada. They obviously didn't want any competition besides the big 3.



Code:


Service Area              Population TotalMHz Total Amount

Videotron Montréal        3,784,570      10    $96,600,000 
Videotron Toronto         5,635,827      10    $96,400,000 
Videotron Total Quebec                        $458,149,000 
Wind(including N. Quebec)                     $442,099,000

Point taken, people travel between cities or up to cottage country a few times a year and like to stream internet radio or read on their iThing the whole drive there. The home area will be filled in with time.


----------



## ddkay

Free services like this are also springing up to help avoid roaming fees, not just on Wind but any provider:

http://www.dellvoice.ca/
http://www.vonagemobile.com/apps/vonage-mobile-app.php

If you have an Internet wifi connection (relatives house on the ranch, B&B in the middle of nowhere, hotel in Montreal), you can use this service with conditional call forwarding to receive and make outgoing calls.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay,

I disagree with all of it.

These things are just not going to happen.

The small companies are small time. They will stay small time. 

They are small for a reason. If it was what clients really wanted, they would have blown up by now. The market just isn't there.

Is there a market? Yes. But it's not going to steal very many clients from T, BCE or RCI.

I know a guy who worked for WIND~ and he said its absolute garbage. There's no doubt in my mind that he's right.


----------



## doctrine

We all know that when the non-compete clause ends on the licenses, that BCE/T/RCI will all start picking apart the smaller guys.. who will be more than willing to sell at a nice profit. There is not going to be 4 national players in Canada - it is barely supportable in the US.


----------



## ddkay

I thought the same before I talked to someone that actually used the service. Premium hardware subsidies (value >$300) only started a few months ago. Give them time.


----------



## ddkay

doctrine I can't find any reference to this non-compete clause you're talking about. Can you point out where you read that?


----------



## Eder

Heres a good read from the Globe on Canadian telco's if anyone is interested...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...tive-cellphone-market-at-risk/article2334878/


----------



## ddkay

I like Iain Marlow, but don't forget who owns the Globe & Mail. They show no integrity here and just re-hashed an interview with Anthony Lacavera from last August. I posted it here before in another thread. It's only relevant again because BCE missed earnings:

http://www.cartt.ca/inDepth/1012/Wi...tion-regulation-and-the-upcoming-auction.html

Tower sharing has never worked for the new operators. They have had to put up their own in every case, and a cell site can cost up to $500,000, unless its in a rural location and meshed together using EHF microwave drums. So yes it hurts their pocket book, but at the end of the day it's a marginal cost and they make that back so it's not a big deal.



> Seven carriers is crazy for this country, and it leads to negative consequences for industry. ... What the government has to decide is whether we want to have the Apple of telecom or the Dollar Store.” - Wade Oosterman, president of BCE Inc.’s Bell Mobility unit


Did he really just say that? LOL! We gotta get raped for our own good apparently. If you don't like the price, don't buy it.



> He adds that consumers who make the switch – like Brian Wilson in Vancouver – experience a drop in network quality, and that “the new guys lose a tremendously large number of subscribers every month.”


Here's my "drop" in network quality http://i.imgur.com/uLRqF.png


----------



## doctrine

From the 2008 auction:

http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/smt-gst.nsf/eng/sf08833.html



> While all licence transfers must be approved by the Minister, licences obtained through the set-aside may not be transferred to companies that do not meet the criteria of a new entrant for a period of 5 years from the date of issuance.


Thus, in 2013, it will be possible for BCE, Telus or Rogers to buy spectrum from any "new entrants" in the 2008 auction.


----------



## m3s

The irony is that everyone is calling Wind small when really BCE/Rogers/T are only big in Canada. Wind is probably bigger than the big 3 combined? They're not small at all they're just faced with the bureaucracy of CRTC.


----------



## ddkay

That's not a non-compete clause. That just says they can't buy them out for the first 5 years. They can and do compete on price (features are still lacking) in the same service areas, that's what the flanker brands are for.

Apple's iPhone takes big bites out of wireless carriers' profits - LA Times



> During the last quarter, the iPhone accounted for 82% of the smartphones AT&T sold to its customers, meaning the company had to pay the hefty subsidy on each of the 7.6 million iPhones. All that money paid to Apple tugged down the company's profits. AT&T's operating margins — a common measure of how much a firm makes — dropped to 15.2% from 22.9% a year earlier.





> [Subsidies don't] work well with the much more expensive iPhone, which companies buy from Apple for about $600, analysts estimate, before reselling it to consumers for $200 — eating the $400 difference.
> 
> A particularly sticky issue for carriers is that many iPhone users don't want to wait for their two-year contract to expire to buy the latest model, which has come out once a year.





> Generally the carriers have required consumers to pay the full price if they want a new iPhone before their contract runs out. But now, worried that subscribers will flee to competitors if they can't get a good price on the new phone, several carriers are offering "early upgrade" deals to discount the newest iPhone before two years elapse. That means helping the consumer buy a second iPhone in one year — and handing over additional hundreds of dollars to Apple.


That last paragraph probably sums up what the Bell guy is worried about. Really it's not a big deal if the operators keep their service prices realistic. And secondly Canada has 3 year contracts, not 2 year. If you want a subsidised iPhone you have to get on a $60/month plan. If you want a subsidised top-of-the-line Android you have to get on a $40/month plan. Then anyone can come up with useful premium add-ons to nudge ARPU's a bit higher.

I just compared with some overseas operators. $60/mo service is standard for the latest gen iPhone (4S) with 2 year contracts. In addition to purchasing outright they also the option to rent the iPhone at $26/month with no contract or $7/month over 2 years. We have a lot of room to manoeuvre without gouging customers, which apparently is all Bell/Rogers/Telus are good at.

@mode3sour that's exactly why I am positive Wind will turn into the #1 carrier by the end of this decade by offering great features at fair prices. Through their parent company they have combined purchasing power of 170 million subscribers and procurement is much cheaper for them than anyone else. Not to mention the deals they could offer on long distance by having POPs in so many countries, if they really wanted to they could make Bell/Rogers/Telus look like the joke that they really are, but first they need more subscribers, and the 700MHz license will go a long way. Tony was quoted there saying LTE reduces suburban rollout capex up to 75% (less cells, more range), and that even in the period last year when Wind were forced to stop building because of legal issues they continued with land acquisitions because they could get towers up and running later on within a matter of weeks.

The purpose of a business is to create a customer, shareholders do NOT benefit from millions of people bottled up with frustration that given a choice will leave in a New York minute. And Bell has pissed of generations of Canadians throughout its entire existence. My 90 year old great grandma hates Bell, that tells you something.


----------



## m3s

ddkay said:


> I just compared with some overseas operators. $60/mo service is standard for the latest gen iPhone (4S) with 2 year contracts. In addition to purchasing outright they also the option to rent the iPhone at $26/month with no contract or $7/month over 2 years. We have a lot of room to manoeuvre without gouging customers, which apparently is all Bell/Rogers/Telus are good at.


There are many subtle differences overseas. Like Wind, if you go over your data cap you don't pay obscene fees by the MB, but rather you get throttled. There are far more options a la carte, rather than random buffoonery such as "sorry you have to buy all 10 packages just to get TSN sports" I had an iPhone with a $30/month plan but now I'm paying $50 for the full-meal-deal roaming in 100 countries etc (and I get far far more than I ever would with big 3 $60/month bare bones) For example you get a discount here if you "bring your own device"... I fought with Rogers for an hour that no, I would not be signing a 3 years contract as I own the damn phone already (and no discount of course) There is also an obvious attitude adjustment, because there is actually competition to fear. I just came back from an exotic country where I used my iPhone as much as I wanted for a month - for a total of $15 (they handed me a free sim card in the airport - which costs $25 in Canada)..


----------



## gibor365

My son has iPhone and have 3 years contract with Rogers for $17.5 basic package per month + $5 for 2500 text msgs


----------



## doctrine

Yes non-compete is the wrong term. You know what I mean. I'm not saying that our three will attempt hostile takeovers of the smaller players. I'm saying the smaller players in this market alone may decide to sell out and take a tidy profit. In fact, you can expect major consolidation starting in 2013.


----------



## m3s

gibor said:


> My son has iPhone and have 3 years contract with Rogers for $17.5 basic package per month + $5 for 2500 text msgs


Yes that's what I did in Canada as well, but Rogers will convince 99% of iPhone users to pay $70/month. You just have to watch your usage and roaming etc. Caller ID and each little feature is extra in Canada, but included overseas


----------



## gibor365

mode3sour said:


> Yes that's what I did in Canada as well, but Rogers will convince 99% of iPhone users to pay $70/month. You just have to watch your usage and roaming etc. Caller ID and each little feature is extra in Canada, but included overseas


still imo it's easier to call Rogers and setup $17.50 plan, than change provider. also I get additional discount as I have cable and internet with Rogers.


----------



## m3s

Aha and it's easier to pay your peasant taxes to the nobles as well, than to revolt?..


----------



## ddkay

gibor does he have an iPhone 4S, retail worth $733.37 with tax? I think he has an older model, that's a huge loss to Rogers otherwise & not sustainable if they keep giving those retentions plans to people that just put a small payment down for subsidy on the latest high-end smartphone.

The only way you can get the iPhone 4S on a plan less than $60 on Bell, is if you paid for your device in full. Go on the website and try to build a plan less than $60 with the $159.95 purchase price, the order form won't let you.

Retentions packages are a whole different topic. Wind makes deals too if you didn't just sign a new 3 year hardware term, they typically use decommissioned promotional plans (e.g. Irresistable35) and are always better value than anything Bell/Rogers/Telus can offer. Unlimited North American calling, unlimited global texting, unlimited data, Caller ID, Forwarding, Conference, and Voicemail for $35 for life assuming you keep a good payment record. Rogers will not match that, I tried before I cancelled, retentions people can't customize plans they have to use what's in their template. Maybe they will have more flexibility when their churn rate jump to 10% or more, that day is coming...

Let's say I get the 17.50 + 2500 "unlimited texts" pack for $22.50 total. Ok, now I need data for my $733 smartphone. Add $25 and your bill jumps to $42.50, which is less than average, but still a rip off because the plan is crippled. 200 minutes, 500MB? No thank you.

Rogers have other services they will cannabalize if they remove all restrictions. They have no reason to increase speeds and remove data caps, that just promotes more streaming which leads to video sales loss. Wind plans can be a true landline replacement, and even Internet replacement with E-UTRA (successor of LTE) down the road. Rogers just want to sell you their Home Phone junk cable TV and high speed internet service. That's why they're going to fail. Maybe they can buy another losing sports team and hang out in Jim Balsillie's basement.


----------



## gibor365

ddkay, My son have 100M data and additional $5 for every additional 100M of data. He doesn't need data more than 100M now. But data is flex and you pay per usage.
He has iPhone 4s.

P.S. I'm not sure, my son told me that Wind doesn't support iPhones at all.


----------



## Sherlock

You shouldn't spoil your son like that, make him use a dumb phone with no data capability.


----------



## gibor365

Sherlock said:


> You shouldn't spoil your son like that, make him use a dumb phone with no data capability.


Why spoil? He's in grade 11 in one of the best schools in Peel , has average on majors about 94 and... he needs it, more than myself.
I personally doesn't have any cellphone, I just don't need it.


----------



## KaeJS

Sherlock said:


> You shouldn't spoil your son like that, make him use a dumb phone with no data capability.


Spoil?

A new car would be spoiled. An iPhone 4S is average. Just look at how many people own one. It's hard to say someone is spoiled because they have an iPhone.

His son is not "spoiled" in my opinion. Either way, it's hard to make any comments, as we don't even know gibor, or his son. He may be a very hard working young man that helps around the house and knows the value of a dollar.

A more correct term would be to say that if you _don't_ have an iPhone, you are underprivileged and outdated.


----------



## Dibs

I don't have a iPhone, heck I don't have a phone at all. I enjoy being out of reach for certain parts of the day. For everything else, there's my home and work phone, or email. Underpriviledged? Nah. Outdated? Maybe


----------



## Sherlock

You guys don't think buying a high school kid a $500 phone is spoiling him?

When I was in high school about 10 years ago my parents wouldn't even buy me one of those pay-as-you-go Fido cellphones for $100. I bought one with my own money when I managed to save up enough...


----------



## gibor365

Dibs said:


> I don't have a iPhone, heck I don't have a phone at all. I enjoy being out of reach for certain parts of the day. For everything else, there's my home and work phone, or email. Underpriviledged? Nah. Outdated? Maybe


same here


----------



## gibor365

Sherlock said:


> You guys don't think buying a high school kid a $500 phone is spoiling him?
> 
> When I was in high school about 10 years ago my parents wouldn't even buy me one of those pay-as-you-go Fido cellphones for $100. I bought one with my own money when I managed to save up enough...


If I start telling you what majority of high-school students weren't able to have in USSR (where I studied in high-school), you would be crying 

so why to compare?!


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> same here


this is my mobile one
still works


----------



## gibor365

newbie said:


> this is my mobile one
> still works


It reminded me "mahshir kesher" we used in IDF


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> It reminded me "mahshir kesher" we used in IDF


beechlet 
ze me milchemet hashichrur


----------



## m3s

Haha in the 90's you were spoiled if you brought a laptop to school.. I had a laptop and palm pilot I paid for myself. Now parents buy every single kid a laptop at bare min for school. iPhones are replacing laptops, you can watch prof lectures etc etc on them. It's like saying having the internet is spoiled. Canada is falling way behind in telecom infrastructure thanks to old thinking


----------



## ddkay

gibor $160 down for an iPhone 4S and then a plan that barely recovers the customer hardware obviously means they are selling to you at almost a complete loss. If the hardware costs $650 to Rogers minus $160 you paid upfront and they collect $22.50 from you, after the hardware deduction, your effective service rate to Rogers is only ~$8/month. Is it really worth it to them to keep a customer that only pays $8/month for service and will probably put $490 more debt on their books every 24 months by using the hardware upgrade option? Is this why I got surprise $2000 and $500 billing errors on my phone bill, Rogers just hoped no one would notice and they could pay off your sons last 3 iPhones? 

For normal people, Rogers voice and data plans are expensive and crippled, and we end up paying twice as much or more for service through billing errors and overages effectively subsidising namely high end smartphone users but also ridiculous unjustified insatiable shareholder demand for dividend increases. Every operators biggest challenge is subsidising customers high-end hardware costs. Fortunately for the operator, in most cases they are not providing a true subsidy, it just works as a multi-year negative interest loan.

In Australia the costs for a smartphone plan are a little more upfront and they gouge less with overages because there are little restrictions in place. All Vodafone plans are unlimited talk and text. For a $700 subsidy, Optus put you on a minimum $60/mo plan for 24 months where features include unlimited nation-wide voice, text, and 2GB data. They collect $120 over that 24 months through a $5/mo fee for hardware rental. The remaining $580 comes off the service plan ($580/24=$24.17, $60-$24.17=$35.83). So $35.83/mo is left to work with for operating costs and the majority is kept as profit.

When people bring their own device, collecting even as little as $15/mo for unlimited nation-wide calling, text and data is almost pure profit. Wind normally collect $55/mo for the features I just listed. Now since most people don't need nation-wide calling, they only need local, they settle with the cheaper $25/mo plan and a cheap phone. This is why Wind is currently so much less expensive, they have 450k subs and do not manage high-end hardware costs for even half of them. Until a few months ago they only sold low-end feature phones and a few mid-range BlackBerries and Androids all worth less than $300 wholesale.

If Wind do offer the iPhone, it will probably be like AT&T, consist of 82% of their smartphone sales, subscribers will triple in a few quarters because plans offered are unlimited everything (BCE/RCI/T cannot offer unlimited everything on main brands because they will only hasten the inevitable and facilitate in killing demand for their own bundled services). However, there is a negative knock-on effect for new customers: since Apple is inflexible on pricing more than any other handset maker, hardware costs will increase significantly. Wind will then need to decide whether high-end smartphone users pay more individually or use the Rogers system where everyone pays more to manage the inventory of these much more expensive devices. The fairest options are limit the subsidy to $400 and have users pay more upfront (they used this with the Galaxy Nexus released a week ago), increase service prices, or leave service prices as they are and introduce a phone leasing system like Australia and other countries have in place.

And you're correct, the iPhone does not work with the new providers here yet. It's a chipset issue, there is limited availability of pentaband chipsets that also meet the power requirements Apple wants for long battery life. Same reason the 4S release did not get LTE.


----------



## m3s

ddkay, I'm fairly certain gibor's son has an iPhone he paid for himself (not subsidized) That is the best way to go if you do the math (savings of at least $1000 in 3 years) Rogers will not advertise this, and the reps often play dumb or are dumb and resist this, if not force you to sign a contract even though you own the phone. If you buy the iPhone yourself, it also works worldwide on free sims in other countries.. If Rogers subsidizes the iPhone, they want the full $60/month plus extras. Subsidized phones are good for the telcos and phone producers or they wouldn't do it. Google initiated the unlocked worldwide "by your own" smart phones, but consumers have very short outlook an math skills


----------



## ddkay

The advantage for telcos is that is gives them an excuse bundle hardware with more expensive plans - key to driving revenue higher, and hyper-commoditizing so consumers get easy access to premium devices at the cornerstore instead of actively searching for a phone and maybe even importing it from overseas like some of us used to do 5 or 6 years ago - another key to driving volume. It's kind of like lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy. Now anyone can buy an iPhone 4 for 50 bucks and Rogers figures out how to build in the cost of $15/mo for 36 months for everyone regardless if you own your own device or not.


----------



## gibor365

My son just upgraded his old iPhone, it cost couple of hundreds (don't remember exactly)
BTW, he also have pretty expensive laptop ... he's enrolled in high-school laptop program and it's mandatory to have....
Times change


----------



## Jon_Snow

Having a good chuckle here... Reminds me again of one of the many reasons I'm not having kids.


----------



## KaeJS

BCE in the red again. Kill me.


----------



## onomatopoeia

I hope you don't lose too much, but you have been betting bigger and bigger amounts on single purchases as of late.

If you are doing due diligence than I commend you, and your BCE purchase should be fine.

Otherwise, I'd just say, don't get overly confident in your trading abilities when the market has gone up 20% in a month. It's what caught out a lot of smart people in the late 90's who said "i can quit my day job, im an excellent stock picker, only to have no job, and little net worth years later.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> BCE in the red again. Kill me.


This is why I'd never buy anything on margin.... if i buy stock like BCE or RCI.B into my RRSP, I'm not worried too much if it slightly going down, as I collect juicy dividends... in your case , you have to sell or pay interest, and even w/o margin BCE has too high weighting in your portfolio....


----------



## gibor365

onomatopoeia said:


> don't get overly confident in your trading abilities when the market has gone up 20% in a month. It's what caught out a lot of smart people in the late 90's who said "i can quit my day job, im an excellent stock picker, only to have no job, and little net worth years later.


it sometimes reminds me playing card games against crooks, they give you to win several games and when you become confident and increase your bets => you loose everything


----------



## Eder

KaeJS said:


> BCE in the red again. Kill me.


As someone alluded to in another thread...there's a big difference between holding BCE and holding some moose pasture .

It's not a real good trading stock, but you can easily hold it since the dividends more than pay the juice to your loan shark...err margin. (at least for the next few quarters).


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> BCE in the red again. Kill me.


ha
the quick buck machine on margin.
sorry to hear bro.


----------



## newbie

onomatopoeia said:


> I hope you don't lose too much, but you have been betting bigger and bigger amounts on single purchases as of late.
> 
> If you are doing due diligence than I commend you, and your BCE purchase should be fine.
> 
> Otherwise, I'd just say, don't get overly confident in your trading abilities when the market has gone up 20% in a month. It's what caught out a lot of smart people in the late 90's who said "i can quit my day job, im an excellent stock picker, only to have no job, and little net worth years later.


ur quote about "goin up" 20% in a month reminds me that the "smart money" ain' t always that smart .
not sure if anyone noticed that the bond market is running in tandem with the bull run.
i beg anyone here to differ and remind me as to the last time they saw that happening.
so who is right in all this scheme of things?
i will stick with the bond mkt.
it only tells me that at one point u run out of buyers.
and yet that happens when "bad " news start poping , but not even that is choping the bulls horns.
but wait a sec , we have all this option sellers out there just waiting to make a buck right?
are we there yet?
in regards to BCE i have no opinion .


----------



## Cal

KaeJS said:


> BCE in the red again. Kill me.


What was that Belguy?


----------



## Eder

We were ahead of Berkshire for once

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-builds-media-portfolio-fourth-013218388.html


----------



## KaeJS

Cal said:


> What was that Belguy?






Eder said:


> We were ahead of Berkshire for once
> 
> http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-builds-media-portfolio-fourth-013218388.html


But he bought DirecTV. Won't have an impact for BCE or other Canadian companies.


----------



## Eder

KaeJS said:


> But he bought DirecTV. Won't have an impact for BCE or other Canadian companies.


Really? Express Vu, SJR.B,Optik, even cable like Rodgers....protected from foreign ownership..

Look 5 years in the future, not 5 days. It's not cell phones.


----------



## KaeJS

Phew!


----------



## ddkay

Wind Mobile bets on bundling 

IPTV over LTE/Advanced coming atcha.


----------



## Eder

ddkay said:


> Wind Mobile bets on bundling
> 
> IPTV over LTE/Advanced coming atcha.


I am using Verizon LTE 4G right now. Lol at anyone thinking they are going to watch much IPTV on it unless money is no object.
I get 5 gig for $50/month and $10/gig over.
T Mobile offers LTE unlimited but haha it's 300mb before it gets throttled.

LTE is very fast but I think we would need at least 150 gig/month to use it effectively.


----------



## ddkay

Ottawa lifted the foreign ownership rule on telecom

BCE, RCI, T don't look too happy this morning


----------



## KaeJS

Yeah, I read that this morning and my first instinct was to check the share price in pre-market lol


----------



## dubmac

I bought BCE on three occasions . once just after the Teacher's Pension Fund failed in their bid, and the sp dropped to 25. Given the current dividend of .54, that makes the actual yield 8.3% s- pretty nice given the return on GIC's...but...most research suggests/reports that their is little upside to BCE.


----------



## ddkay

Bell Media bought Astral Media ACM/A.TO for $50/share


----------



## Spudd

Whee!! I own Astral Media. Only 70 shares, but I'll take it.


----------



## Spudd

By the way, what will happen? I presume the stock price will rise up close to $50 on its own. When the deal closes will I get Bell shares equivalent to my Astral shares or will they pay me cash? Is it better to hang in and wait for the deal to close, or just sell for close to $50?


----------



## al42

Selllll NOW, it's trading around 53 now.




Spudd said:


> By the way, what will happen? I presume the stock price will rise up close to $50 on its own. When the deal closes will I get Bell shares equivalent to my Astral shares or will they pay me cash? Is it better to hang in and wait for the deal to close, or just sell for close to $50?


----------



## ddkay

Congrats! it should adjust to $50, I would just sell there since I don't think there will be a bidding war and there's a higher chance it can be blocked by regulators:S


----------



## Barwelle

Spudd... Globe and Mail says "BCE is offering $50 a share ... shareholders would get about 75 per cent in cash and 25 per cent in stock."


----------



## Spudd

Thanks Barwelle! That's pretty sweet. However I put in a sell order at 49.98 and we'll see if it gets taken.


----------



## Barwelle

You're welcome. I'm watching this too but for different reasons, I own some BCE but have been wondering if I should keep it, or sell next time the price is up a bit, because of the news the other day about changes to foreign ownership rules. I would think that their takeover of Astral would be good, since it diversifies their business. But the news didn't affect the price of BCE much, if anything it went down a bit today.

You don't want shares in BCE? I guess you'd only get about $700 worth. Not a lot if you don't have any already.


----------



## Spudd

Yeah, I don't have any already. I wouldn't mind having some BCE but I don't know how long it will take to close the deal, if the CRTC will scuttle it, etc. I think I'd rather have the bird in the hand. I could always buy BCE with the money from selling Astral if I so choose.


----------



## tendim

ddkay said:


> Bell Media bought Astral Media ACM/A.TO for $50/share


Subject to shareholder approval, and regulatory approval, etc. etc. etc. The $50 is for Class A. Class B is going for $54.83. Reading the fine print it doesn't look like an all cash transaction.

Astral shareholders are to vote May 25. And if Bell walks out of the deal, they pay $150MM to Astral.

Source: http://www.bce.ca/news-and-media/releases/show/bell-to-acquire-quebecs-leading-media-company-astral


----------



## Jungle

Does somebody know off hand everything that Bell owns now?


----------



## Barwelle

Wikipedia is your friend. Bell Canada and Bell Media.

Bell home phone/mobile/satellite TV/internet, a whole bunch of radio stations, CTV, The Source, a couple buildings, some of the Canadiens, and in the process of acquiring part of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (Toronto sports teams and venues.) May have missed a couple there.

Interesting... if they do go through with the Astral deal, they will be forced to sell some radio stations to comply with CRTC rules (unless the rules are changed, of course.)


----------



## ddkay

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/4/26/Wind-Mobile-says-path-clear-for-foreign-investment.aspx

"Wind Mobile tells BNN it's moving ahead on talks with foreign investors and pushing for consolidation among its rivals."


----------



## ddkay

CRTC denies BCE’s bid to acquire Astral http://crtc.gc.ca/eng/com100/2012/r121018.htm


----------



## Spudd

Wow! Didn't see that coming. I wonder how Astral's stock price will react tomorrow.


----------



## Eder

I think that this is a case that the CRTC ensures BCE & comrades make money but at the same time make sure they don't make too much. I do hate the system here in Canada but love buying their stocks. I think Astral will enjoy their 125 mill windfall... but the stock was dropping before us lemmings got the news as well, and should be free falling back to the $30's in the next few weeks.


----------



## Cal

Spudd said:


> Wow! Didn't see that coming. I wonder how Astral's stock price will react tomorrow.


Down 10% currently....


----------



## thompsg4416

BCE is still a solid buy with a 5% dividend. I picked some up today.


----------



## doctrine

The $42 range is a great buy range. I last bought at $42.50 a few months ago, not surprised to see it back but you're getting 5.3% here with lots of dividend growth in the future.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Time to go big on BCE soon... That dividend is too good to pass up.


----------



## killuminati

What's the feeling on BCE with this new bid?

The price has taken a hit under 42 now. Dividend is huge.


----------



## Eder

I bought more yesterday...just 250shares at a time now. As long as interest rates remain this low BCE will not only increase yield but continue to give us lemmings capital gains.

Content is what will drive their future growth.


----------



## doctrine

BCE is a great buy here. 5.4-5.5% yield and you can be certain it's going up with their 65-70% payout.


----------



## Ethan

Sold a November put this summer with a strike price of $44, so I now own 200 shares. This is in my margin account, and interest is 3.75%. BCE's dividend easily covers the interest, so now I have to wait for the shares to creep back up before I sell calls against the position.

At $42, Bell is sporting a 5.4% dividend yield and PE of 13.5. That is absurdly cheap to me.


----------



## jamesbe

Funny thing I was buying BCE at $38 thinking it was kind of high LOL


----------



## My Own Advisor

I've got shares DRIPping in my account. I think it's a solid price right now to keep buying more.


----------



## doctrine

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/07/bce-reports-higher-profit-raises-dividend/

Dividend increase to 58.25 cents per share from 56.75 cents per share, or about 2.6%. Earnings of $0.65 cents per share up 4.8% year over year. This bumps the yield from 5.09% to 5.22% if you were buying today.


----------



## humble_pie

bce always does look appealing to us canadians 

but it's usually somewhat pricey compared to US telcos ...


----------



## blin10

I was thinking same thing buying at 38, then at 40, then 42... who knows where it'll end up, by so far so good



jamesbe said:


> Funny thing I was buying BCE at $38 thinking it was kind of high LOL


----------



## gibor365

blin10 said:


> I was thinking same thing buying at 38, then at 40, then 42... who knows where it'll end up, by so far so good


same here  was buying at 35, 39 and 42


----------



## rassmy

Bought it 4 years ago my entry price was around 22$, still holding my position.


----------



## 1sImage

Yup, great stock to own.


----------



## Argonaut

Right after I started this thread I sold BCE and bought Telus. That turned out fine so far, but if I was buying today it would be BCE. Not worried about it enough to shake up my own portfolio, but Bell looking like a better buy at the moment. I'm going to look through all of the stocks on the TSX 60 in the next few days, and I expect BCE to be near the top for my right-now rankings.


----------



## Jungle

They just increased dividend again 2.64%. 
They will probably do another one this year too, but don't quote me on that. Things can change  .
Regardless, still holding and dripping from 2010


----------



## blin10

what a run.... anyone thinks it'll hit 50 ?


----------



## Jungle

Don't know but remember share price was rather flat in 2012 compared to Rogers and Telus.


----------



## doctrine

It's at a 52 week high now. I am not sure if the dividend growth is enough to justify a yield less than 5%. I'm holding my BCE shares but probably wouldn't buy more unless their earnings started picking up above $1/share/quarter. I last bought at $42.50


----------



## My Own Advisor

They will hit $50 at some point.


----------



## Eder

BCE has been at 52 week highs practically for 3 years....the graph is an arrow. I last bought at $43 and have more cash to put in but don't yet have the cajones to do so.


----------



## leeder

Are there even any good companies to initiate a position in the telecom space? Everything seems to be driven up significantly, whether it is BCE, RCI.B, or T. I wonder if anyone is buying other smaller telecom companies, like MBT, CCA, SJR.B, etc.


----------



## Spudd

I've held MBT for over a year now. It's been pretty good to me, but has been suffering a bit lately.


----------



## leeder

^ To be honest, I'm thinking on MBT. I haven't pulled the trigger because it has not performed well compared to other telecom companies. I wish BCE would pull back about 5% or more..... :frown:


----------



## Addy

Spudd said:


> I've held MBT for over a year now. It's been pretty good to me, but has been suffering a bit lately.


Same here, it's served us well but I hesitate to buy more at this point. I have to do a bit more research.


----------



## Ethan

Competition Bureau greenlights BCE’s Astral bid, subject to ‘significant divestitures’

http://business.financialpost.com/2...-to-significant-divestitures/?__lsa=9a90-ffd3


----------



## thompsg4416

Down quite a bit in the last week or two. Sure it rose quite quickly as well but p/e is only 14 and he div is back over 5%. Almost a full percentage point more then the big banks(Bmo excluded). Buy on the dips!


----------



## Jon_Snow

1000 shares of BCE are in my future - this sell off is much appreciated, hopefully it's got more room to fall.


----------



## AltaRed

I agree. Still too rich... Somewhere around $42-43 would be my entry point.


----------



## doctrine

It could definitely fall more.. I also liked it at the $42-43 level and might add more there.. I don't really expect a lot of dividend growth in the future, 5% a year is probably the top-end for now.


----------



## snowbird

BCE has dropped 5% this morning? Is this related to Verizon's bid for Wind mobile?


----------



## dubmac

snowbird said:


> BCE has dropped 5% this morning? Is this related to Verizon's bid for Wind mobile?


probably - both Telus and Rogers are down as well. Telus dropped 8-9%!


----------



## mrPPincer

I don't know the reason, but Telus and Roger's dropped 10% this morning too with heavy trading.
I'm curious as to what's going on.


----------



## jamesbe

Pretty sure it's the Verizon news. Kind of premature though, even if Verizon bought out wind it's not like Telus / Rogers / Bell will dwindle into oblivion overnight.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Just bought 500 shares. What a gift.


----------



## dubmac

mrPPincer said:


> I don't know the reason, but Telus and Roger's dropped 10% this morning too with heavy trading.
> I'm curious as to what's going on.


My guess, like snowbird sepculates, is that Verizon bid for Wind Mobile has spooked the telecoms.


----------



## dubmac

Jon_Snow said:


> Just bought 500 shares. What a gift.


well done Jon Snow - price is going back up!


----------



## mrPPincer

dubmac said:


> well done Jon Snow - price is going back up!


yeah, nicely done Jon.
I put in a 30 day bid for some telus at the day's low (10% down from opening).
I probably missed the boat, they're all bouncing back up now.


----------



## rowan

Jon_Snow said:


> Just bought 500 shares. What a gift.


Well done Jon, I'm in for 100 @ $41.00. Fingers Crossed


----------



## peterk

Uhg - Can't catch a break. Made my first foray into telecom 2 days ago haha.


----------



## gibor365

Also added a little bit BCE and RCI.B


----------



## supperfly17

So if Verizon comes, profits of the big 3 will drop? Is that the reason why stock price has fallen?


----------



## Ethan

Man, I am getting tired of government interference in the market. The sale of PotashCorp to BHP Billiton was blocked because BHP is foreign. Now Telus had its bid for Wind blocked by the government, only to have Wind now entertain offers from a foreign company. Is Canada open to FDI or not? I'm so confused.

Regardless I picked up 15 more shares of Bell this morning with the spare change I had in my TFSA.


----------



## gibor365

Ethan, i agree with you... the government is ridiculous... i won't be surprised if some friends/relatives of those "desicion-makers" was shorting telecoms


----------



## blin10

it'll be so stupid if gov let's virizon to buy wind while blocking telus to buy mobiliity, but something tells me gov will block virizon take over, they don't want big 3 to get hit


----------



## jamesbe

But Verizon could buy Wind but they are limited to 10% of the market share. BS IMO, let them compete!


----------



## gibor365

imho it's stupid to hit 3 big local companies and reward US one... government telling to avoid monopoly....but there is enough competition w/o VZ... We didn't like Rogers internet service, we moved to teksavvy (and now Rogers offers even more competitive conditions than teksavvy), we didn't like Rogers wireless -> we switched to Telus etc


----------



## Eclectic12

gibor said:


> ....but there is enough competition w/o VZ... We didn't like Rogers internet service, we moved to teksavvy (and now Rogers offers even more competitive conditions than teksavvy), we didn't like Rogers wireless -> we switched to Telus etc


I can see the Rogers wireless to Telus but doesn't teksavvy lease their lines from Bell, meaning you really switched to a re-packaged Bell?


Cheers


----------



## MoreMiles

blin10 said:


> it'll be so stupid if gov let's virizon to buy wind while blocking telus to buy mobiliity, but something tells me gov will block virizon take over, they don't want big 3 to get hit


How are they going to do that? Verizons is following all the laws. What will be CRTC's excuse to stop the purchase this time? National security like Russian takeover last time? With an American owner, I am sure all the calls/SMS will participate in their wonderful PRISM program couretesy of NSA. Is it really better than Russian?

I think not many Canadians will want to be part of that American invasion.


----------



## Eder

I thought the USA was listening in on data etc in their own country on their own citizens and got caught. How is having Uncle Sam eavesdropping on Johnny Canuck a good thing? I think the CRTC went fishing for a minnow but are about to hook a shark.

At any rate I did buy more BCE today even though I should wait a few weeks.


----------



## Xoron

Eclectic12 said:


> I can see the Rogers wireless to Telus but doesn't teksavvy lease their lines from Bell, meaning you really switched to a re-packaged Bell?
> 
> Cheers


They do. From what I understand, Bell owns the "last mile" to the house, the remainder is teksavvy. (I'm a teksavvy user, and would NEVER consider going back to Bell / Rogers unless forced)


----------



## Cal

From my understanding, Wind is only available in major cities and is on a crappy network. Analysts have estimated if the deal goes thorough, Bell would drop about 10%, Rogers 18% and Telus 17%.

Bell is estimated at less of a drop as it has a heavier reliance from land lines. Verizon has no interest in land lines.

There is nothing limiting Wind or Verizon from growing the business beyond 10% of the telecom market share.

I think the market reaction and analysts estimates are a little premature.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Agreed Cal. "I think the market reaction and analysts estimates are a little premature." This is just people getting nervous.

I also believe most Canadians will not want to be part of this US invasion.


----------



## Xoron

Cal said:


> Wind is only available in major cities and is on a crappy network.


Agreed. They are cheap, but the coverage areas and network speeds / reliability are sketchy at best. But at $40/month all in (+tax) it's at least 1/2 any of the big three. 



Cal said:


> There is nothing limiting Wind or Verizon from growing the business beyond 10% of the telecom market share.
> 
> I think the market reaction and analysts estimates are a little premature.


I'm hoping that a large player like Verizon can come in and take over Wind. Maybe they could do more infrastructure investment and make Wind a real competitor.


----------



## m3s

Xoron said:


> I'm hoping that a large player like Verizon can come in and take over Wind. Maybe they could do more infrastructure investment and make Wind a real competitor.


We already had the best possible opportunity for competition and it was stifled by the CRTC all the way. Wind was already backed by one of the largest telecom players in the world... Verizon is where Bell and Rogers get all their dirty tricks from such as locking and limiting phones, nothing will change

I remember buying BCE on the big dip when Wind was announced sometime in 2009ish.


----------



## Xoron

m3s said:


> We already had the best possible opportunity for competition and it was stifled by the CRTC .....


Agreed. The CRTC needs to do something, or get out of the way.


----------



## gibor365

Eclectic12 said:


> I can see the Rogers wireless to Telus but doesn't teksavvy lease their lines from Bell, meaning you really switched to a re-packaged Bell?
> 
> 
> Cheers


Actually, teksavvy leases Rogers cables. At that time , I should've renew out contract with Rogers and they gave me ridiculous price (like 10-40% more than I was payong before), Teksavvy offered cheaper plan with no contract and practically no usage limit. Probably I was not the only one leaving Rogers, so now Rogers has no contract deals even a little better than Teksavvy (I wouldn't switch now for sure)


----------



## Xoron

gibor said:


> Actually, teksavvy leases Rogers cables.


Yes, for Cable Internet. And Shaw / Cogeco elsewhere in Ontario for cable internet.

For DSL or Fibre, they lease from Bell (at least in Ontario). Probably Telus in BC / the west where Teksavvy has services.


----------



## gibor365

I wanted to connect Teksavvy cable internet for my mom who lives in Milton (and served by Cogeco) and teksavvy told me that they deal only with Rogers for cable


----------



## 1sImage

Bell got the astral deal. 

BOOM


----------



## doctrine

BCE is a really great buy at or below $42.50. It never really went below that for long, so I never added any. But $42.36 is where the shares yield 5.5% and that has been a sweet spot for this stock for the last 3-4 years.


----------



## saad1253

With Verizon looking to potentially enter the Canadian Market, which of the big 3 BCE, RCI, T might be the best pick to buy now and hold onto for long term.


----------



## favelle75

saad1253 said:


> With Verizon looking to potentially enter the Canadian Market, which of the big 3 BCE, RCI, T might be the best pick to buy now and hold onto for long term.


BCE has the least exposure to "wireless only", if that means anything...


----------



## favelle75

Interesting to see BCE up again today, with both Telus and Rogers down, yet again.


----------



## the-royal-mail

I just bought 100 shares @$47 in my practice account. This stock has been sliding for the past few days after going up pretty steadily for the past 6 weeks. Anyone know what is going on right now? Is the Peladeua controversy affecting the business? PE currently 18. Too high? According to this thread it is:

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/12826-What-is-wrong-with-BCE

Thoughts?


----------



## yyz

Just went ex dividend


----------



## marina628

Telus gave me a $30 discount on my cell bill , probably why it went down


----------



## favelle75

Bought some more today as well at $47...went up to $47.10 like 20 minutes after! 

Brings my DCA of this stock to $44. I am content with my position now.


----------



## Dom

favelle75 said:


> went up to $47.10 like 20 minutes after!


Reading this really urked me


----------



## favelle75

Dom said:


> Reading this really urked me


Whaaaat? What did I do?


----------



## Nemo2

favelle75 said:


> Whaaaat? What did I do?


Never mind that...what does 'urked' mean?


----------



## Beaver101

"irked"? at least it's not "jerked"...:tongue-new:


----------



## favelle75

And down today, LOL. Stupid stocks.


----------



## marina628

Added 150 shares of BCE today in non registered account


----------



## doctrine

BCE looks expensive to me, although I still have 313 shares. The last time I added was in 2012 at $42, but my ACB is $39. I'm happy to hold for another year with the 6% dividend increase, but they're definitely on a short leash as they have to provide they can at least increase earnings by 5%/year for me to hold at this P/E. Obviously the cheapest in this sector is Rogers, but I'm not sure that the bad customer service rep is something they can overcome in the medium term (I dislike them as well for their service as a past customer).


----------



## My Own Advisor

Same feelings about RCI.B...

I will continue to hold BCE for the foreseeable future. ACB around $40.


----------



## favelle75

I don't think I could ever get rid of BCE. Solid divvy....years of capital appreciation.....I may buy on the dips, but I doubt I'll ever decrease my position.


----------



## humble_pie

bell has such a terrible rep for customer service that one historically has always had to wonder how they can earn anything. A friend who worked for Ma Bell at a middle management level a decade ago dismisses the firm as "a Dilbert company."

for several months now i've had slow speed issues. Something to do with the ancient copper wiring in my neighbourhood, for km around. Bell is replacing with fibre to the houses but hasn't gotten to my area yet.

so there have been 3 techs at the house, lots of outages, many conversations w Bell, all the usual horrors.

only in recent weeks i've detected a smartening-up of client services. Billing agents, for example, are now empowered to analyze clients' packages & suggest less expensive options. And they do. One recent billing lady got my charges down to a price level that turned out to be - amazingly - comparable to Teksavvy.

before, clients had to drag themselves to some annexe group call the retention or loyalty group, then start to haggle. Now the billing ladies are volunteering real improvements. Only in the last few weeks.

techs visiting the house seem more focused, better informed. Only in the last few weeks.

is it possible there could be hope, even for Dilbert?


----------



## My Own Advisor

I think there's always hope! 

Your response reminded me I need to call Rogers soon and lobby for better rates....I might have to go to Teksavvy anyhow.


----------



## AMABILE

favelle ........." I don't think I could ever get rid of BCE" . ......neither will I
although I also hold RCI.B and T.


----------



## favelle75

humble_pie said:


> bell has such a terrible rep for customer service that one historically has always had to wonder how they can earn anything.


Because the exact same thing has been said, ad nauseum, about all 3 telcos.


----------



## Eder

I chuckle when ever I read about Canadian telcos and bad customer service...I use Telus in Canada and Verizon in the USA....Verizon service so far has been very slow,unreliable and for the most part illogical...sound familiar?


----------



## Andrew

It seems to me that the level of customer service that you receive is dependent on the rep you get .


----------



## fatcat

Andrew said:


> It seems to me that the level of customer service that you receive is dependent on the rep you get .


as with all of these ... i am my sisters tech support and i installed an apple router yesterday and needed shaw's help .. the first tech was clueless and unfriendly and i needed to call back again about 5 minutes later and the second tech was straight out of tech support heaven, as patient as job and extremely helpful


----------



## gibor365

My Own Advisor said:


> I think there's always hope!
> 
> Your response reminded me I need to call Rogers soon and lobby for better rates....I might have to go to Teksavvy anyhow.


If you can get with Rogers price close to Teksavvy, I'd advise you to stay with Rogers...Switched to Teksavvy about 1.5 years ago and constantly have issues with speed


----------



## Synergy

fatcat said:


> as with all of these ... i am my sisters tech support and i installed an apple router yesterday and needed shaw's help .. the first tech was clueless and unfriendly and i needed to call back again about 5 minutes later and the second tech was straight out of tech support heaven, as patient as job and extremely helpful


You got lucky. It's my understanding that there's no tech support for setting up / problem solving hardware (such as routers) that are not supplied to the customer by the internet provider. If it's something easy I'm sure they'll offer some support / advice - as it's in their best interest, but most will likely refer you to the hardware manufacturer for further support.


----------



## fatcat

Synergy said:


> You got lucky. It's my understanding that there's no tech support for setting up / problem solving hardware (such as routers) that are not supplied to the customer by the internet provider. If it's something easy I'm sure they'll offer some support / advice - as it's in their best interest, but most will likely refer you to the hardware manufacturer for further support.


well yes, i know that and i was waiting for the tech to send me on my way but we had just put a cisco modem / router (piece of cr#p) into bridge mode and he was having trouble getting and keeping an ip address so as i was trying to work my way through a wireless setup he was fiddling with the ip addressing ... frankly, both my sister and brother in law and myself are all longtime customers of shaw and i would not have been happy since i don't trust their hardware

to the point though, it does all come down to the tech, i think they are given fairly wide leeway to help, and they understand or should understand that people will just keep calling back anyway


----------



## Killer Z

Rogers has been my wireless provider here in Alberta for 16 years now, and I have always had excellent service. I currently do not own any Rogers, but would consider buying should the price drop closer to $40/share. Good yield, dividend growth and P/E in my opinion.


----------



## gibor365

Killer Z said:


> Rogers has been my wireless provider here in Alberta for 16 years now, and I have always had excellent service. I currently do not own any Rogers, but would consider buying should the price drop closer to $40/share. Good yield, dividend growth and P/E in my opinion.


Rogers and Bell are 2 of my biggest positions in portfolio, couldn`t resist pull back on Harper VZ speculations and added more.. now, if I`d like to buy telco, I`d buy definitely RCI.B , it`s much cheaper than competitors


----------



## My Own Advisor

gibor said:


> If you can get with Rogers price close to Teksavvy, I'd advise you to stay with Rogers...Switched to Teksavvy about 1.5 years ago and constantly have issues with speed


Good to know gibor, thanks.

I recall Teksavvy uses the Rogers pipeline.

I just did a speedtest, here are my results:

Download = 26.71.
Upload = 1.89.

Not bad, paying for 25 Mbps.


----------



## AMABILE

BCE is my biggest holding (ex Bell Canada employee ),
but I also own RCI.B - T - MBT.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Big fan of BCE and T, DRIP both stocks.


----------



## Cal

Looking overbought to me at this point....


----------



## My Own Advisor

And also getting pricy to DRIP now as well....damn....


----------



## Davis

^+1. Love BCE. Hate to sell iit, but hard to justify holding it at this price, let alone DRIPping.


----------



## Synergy

I get a kick out of the analysts that keep telling people not to expect any capital appreciation out of BCE. I heard this when I purchased the stock mid 2013 and it's appreciated well over 30% over this time period, not including the dividend! If interests stay lower for longer I don't see why some of these telcos won't perform just as good in 2015. It's anyone's guess but I'm happy to hold and buy more on weakness.


----------



## Mookie

I've been watching BCE lately and wanted to buy some, but I didn't feel good about buying it after the recent spike in price, so I ended up buying RY instead as it's selling at a discount from its recent highs, but it frustrates me to watch BCE keep climbing. 

I'm still hoping to pick up some BCE down the road and hoping they will have some temporary bad news so I can get it at a discount. What do you all think? Is it still worth buying at this price or should I wait?


----------



## thepitchedlink

I'm watching and waiting at these prices...


----------



## My Own Advisor

Same Synergy....I don't get the analysts. I'm happy to buy and hold and DRIP. Eventually, I'll turn off all my DRIP taps and use that income for living expenses. 

BCE and 30 other stocks. The plan is in motion, I just need:

a) time
b) lots of dividend increases! :biggrin:


----------



## dubmac

I reorganized my RRSP back in 2009 - not long after the financial crisis. I moved out of a few MF's and purchased "bond-like" stocks including BCE which have done well - and I drip it in my RRSP.
Several on the forum suggest that RRSP is not a good place for dividend stocks - because the dividend can not be claimed for tax purposes, but on the other hand, it has done well and supplied a nice boost to the bottom line. 
I am stuck with a decision to sell, and move it all into an ETF, or just let it roll on.


----------



## AMABILE

I sold my bce shares to lock in a huge profit and bought bank stocks in my rrsp


----------



## Jon_Snow

BCE is the gift that keeps on giving. Holding. Happily so. BCE dividends more than cover my yearly property tax + utilities.


----------



## gibor365

Whaty happened to BCE today? down almost 4% ... couldn't find any news and earnings were good...


----------



## AltaRed

Analyst downgrades would be part of it.

Added: National and TD changed their ratings to underperformance and reduce respectively, so along with the excessive run up, it was bound to sell off.


----------



## lightcycle

Huge runup prior to earnings, went from $53 to $58 within a month.

I'm sure short interest slowly built up in that time, and then when the good results and dividend hike got announced, the shorts got squeezed past $60 yesterday.

Today, probably profit-taking and a return to the long-term moving average. Stock just got ahead of itself a little bit.


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> Whaty happened to BCE today? down almost 4% ... couldn't find any news and earnings were good...


I thought you didn't care about stock movements, just dividends. No worries, be happy then.


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> I thought you didn't care about stock movements, just dividends. No worries, be happy then.


I care because I may buy more in order to increase dividend stream


----------



## Eder

Analysts that put a underperform rating on BCE should be out looking for a different line of work.


----------



## blin10

Eder said:


> Analysts that put a underperform rating on BCE should be out looking for a different line of work.


no kidding, I remember when bce was in low 40's "analysts" were saying it's overpriced


----------



## Jon_Snow

BCE, kindly drop some more so I have no choice but to buy more of you. Already getting close to 3k in yearly divs from you...but I want more. Please?


----------



## AltaRed

Eder said:


> Analysts that put a underperform rating on BCE should be out looking for a different line of work.


They provide a function in the marketplace, especially for money managers I think, as another data point to the money manager's in-house analysis. I think it is rather irrelevant either way for a retail investor but the result sometimes moves markets at least temporarily.


----------



## Cal

All of the tel-co's dropped the other day. BCE was overbought imo. Too much safe money had flowed into it.

Still is overbought....would love to add more, but at lower price.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Jon_Snow said:


> BCE, kindly drop some more so I have no choice but to buy more of you. Already getting close to 3k in yearly divs from you...but I want more. Please?


+1 Makes me laugh.


----------



## Getafix

Down to low 55's today! Bought in at 57 thinking it was a good deal, should've waited a little longer!


----------



## Killer Z

Oil stocks improving, thus a reversing of the "flight to safety" occurring? Tough to say with any certainty.


----------



## AMABILE

Jon_Snow, did you buy some to-day?
I DID:biggrin-new:


----------



## gibor365

Article about BCE at fool.ca
http://www.fool.ca/2015/02/09/its-time-to-start-a-position-in-bce-inc/

BCE is already my biggest position..... but with another dip, may buy more shares...


----------



## GOB

Sold a Feb 20 $54 put for $0.55 credit.


----------



## peterk

GOB said:


> Sold a Feb 20 $54 put for $0.55 credit.


Options noob here... So this essentially means you're saying: "I don't think BCE will go any lower between now and Feb 20, and if it does I'm willing to pay $54/share for it no matter what"?


----------



## humble_pie

GOB said:


> Sold a Feb 20 $54 put for $0.55 credit.



55 cents for a feb 54 put in bce is tolerable, but mostly to look at bce or telus options is to weep

occasionally i go to US options for either one or both of them
but even when stateside, i weep


----------



## Jon_Snow

AMABILE said:


> Jon_Snow, did you buy some to-day?
> I DID:biggrin-new:


Not yet...soon...soon. 

In my perfect little world, it will continue to drift lower for another month...then use my wife's juicy bonus to buy some on an even a steeper discount. I suspect I many end up buying some before then though...I'm starting to get an itchy trigger finger. :biggrin:


----------



## supperfly17

Jon_Snow said:


> Not yet...soon...soon.
> 
> In my perfect little world, it will continue to drift lower for another month...then use my wife's juicy bonus to buy some on an even a steeper discount. I suspect I many end up buying some before then though...I'm starting to get an itchy trigger finger. :biggrin:



Should have bought in Oct @ 47, I made the same mistake. So still waiting, hoping for 49.


----------



## GOB

peterk said:


> Options noob here... So this essentially means you're saying: "I don't think BCE will go any lower between now and Feb 20, and if it does I'm willing to pay $54/share for it no matter what"?


Kind of...means I'm happy to own it at $54 (really an ACB of $53.45) and also happy to take $55 if it doesn't get that low.


----------



## GOB

humble_pie said:


> 55 cents for a feb 54 put in bce is tolerable, but mostly to look at bce or telus options is to weep
> 
> occasionally i go to US options for either one or both of them
> but even when stateside, i weep


Yeah, it's not the greatest but I very rarely buy stocks now at market prices. Might as well take a little bit here and there.


----------



## humble_pie

they say that (long stk-short call) = short put

i don't actually find that these days, it must be because interest rates are so low they're off the parameters, therefore the tried & true doesn't work quite the same any more.

i gather it's still true that US option assignments are free at Interactive? one could acquire an entire portfolio of US stocks at zero commissions? what a marvellous idea ...


----------



## GOB

Yes, assignments are free. But commission is just a dollar anyway, so no big deal.


----------



## dubmac

not sure how many read this article on the effect of low interest rates on big company DB pension plans. Apparently, so says the article, the BoC is the culprit in that when the rates drop, the $ owed to pension plans is drawn from the cash flow of these companies, which may in turn affect dividend growth etc. BCE now has a rather high deficit in this respect...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...utions-to-corporate-pensions/article23135545/


----------



## gladaki

I wonder what will be effect of new CRTC shares on companies like BCE, Telus, RCI and shaw. 

From BNN
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/7/22/CR...ompetition-in-high-speed-internet-market.aspx

Canada's telecommunications regulator has once again sided with small competitors of Canada's telco and cable giants, in a ruling it says will spur more competition in the market for ultra high-speed internet services.

Companies like BCE (BCE.TO -1.31%), Telus (T.TO -0.77%) and Rogers Communications (RCIb.TO -0.95%) will be required to make their new–and costly–fibre-optic networks available to small competitors like TekSavvy, Distributel, Primus and hundreds of others. Other so-called "wireline incumbents" like Manitoba Telecom and SaskTel will also be required to make their fibre-optic networks available.


----------



## doctrine

They'll be able to charge costs plus 30%, so it's not exactly a total hit. I believe if you read the fine print, there are also some other disincentives for total piggy-backing on the incumbent networks.


----------



## fatcat

i think infrastructure costs will slide toward the middle for everyone and the money will be made on bundling and customer service
i have telus for a wireless phone and shaw for cable, tv and home phone and i am amazed at how much better they are getting at customer service
that said, i just sold my shaw and will probably buy bce, i will keep my telus


----------



## doctrine

BCE closed at a 52 week and all time high. It has the type of chart technical analysts drool over. I think it's expensive at $60, although I'm not sure if it's so expensive that it is worth eating the capital gains then waiting to buy back at a lower level. I would probably be buying back or adding new shares below $55 anyway. Guess I'll just keep collecting the 4.6% yield (7% yield on my 3-4 year old shares).


----------



## My Own Advisor

I like the cash as well doctrine. Buy and hold and hold and let the money flow.


----------



## james4beach

It's an amazing chart. Never spends any time below its 200 day moving average.


----------



## Eder

I'm yielding 7.4% on cost...this is one of 5 foundation stones that are funding my retirement. Fwiw I think we revisit low 50's soon, but I agree that will be a good spot to buy more.


----------



## gibor365

Eder said:


> I'm yielding 7.4% on cost...this is one of 5 foundation stones that are funding my retirement. Fwiw I think we revisit low 50's soon, but I agree that will be a good spot to buy more.


my BCE YoC 7.7% for 5 years holding... but MO:NYSE (another my top 5 holding) YoC is 8.6% and considering that I bought MO when CAD$ was higher than US$ , it's about 30% higher


----------



## dubmac

gibor said:


> my BCE YoC 7.7% for 5 years holding... but MO:NYSE (another my top 5 holding) YoC is 8.6% and considering that I bought MO when CAD$ was higher than US$ , it's about 30% higher


me too. 
This is one stock that has worked out well thus far!
66% of my TFSA is BCE. like you, I started buying in March 2011, price was 34. When I was younger I heard that some older folks had been drawing down on "Ma Bell" - now I see the merits in it. My BCE YoC is 7.2%. Total gain around 35%. Will continue to drip for another 5-8 years, then switch the dividend to cash-in-account. At least that's the plan.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Nice plan dubmac, buy and hold and DRIP now, turn off DRIP when you want the cash flow


----------



## Mookie

I just put another $5500 in my TFSA for this year. Thinking of adding to my position in BCE, or maybe some Telus, which I don't have any of yet, as both are well off their 52 week highs (especially BCE). Anyone else looking to buy telecoms with their new TFSA money? Other better places to invest? Still looking for ideas...


----------



## gibor365

BCE is already my biggest position, may add if it's going down more...
In my TFSA I added CU...
Wanterd to buy into TFSA ALA, but bought it into RRSP


----------



## DigginDoc

I added 100 BCE yesterday to my tfsa. Might look at another 50 or look at ALA but don't know enough about it yet.
Cheers
Doc


----------



## Eder

Even though BCE is 21% of my portfolio I added more last week. As long as I see people glued to their smart phones instead of interacting with the real world I think BCE is a good spot to put my money.


----------



## Mookie

Just bought 95 shares of BCE on sale today for $57.46 using this year's $5,500 TFSA contribution. OK, now it can go back up again.


----------



## doctrine

BCE posted lower than expected profit and lower than expected outlook for future growth. They are actually projecting a decrease in adjusted EPS next year. They also have had to do unproductive things with cash, like $400M into pensions in Q4 (why haven't they eliminated DB pensions yet?). They will need to surprise to the upside for the stock to do well. With a decrease in adjusted EPS and an increase in the dividend, their financial flexibility to reinvest has been decreased, not increased. All of this necessitates at least a slightly lower stock price. There will be likely plenty of time to accumulate at current or slightly lower prices.


----------



## yyz

They also stated that future projections of revenue increase don't include the acquisition of MBT which they expect to close Q1.

What's wrong with funding the pensions they have to at some point.I'm sure the union wouldn't take kindly to having db pensions stripped away.


----------



## humble_pie

doctrine said:


> BCE posted lower than expected profit and lower than expected outlook for future growth. They are actually projecting a decrease in adjusted EPS next year. They also have had to do unproductive things with cash, like $400M into pensions in Q4 (why haven't they eliminated DB pensions yet?).



for years ARC reports - a forensic service that goes to TD clients - has cautioned that BCE's massive pension obligations are an albatross that will weigh down this telco 4ever. Apparently total pension obligations don't show on the books, so earnings projections look better than they really will be. Good on doctrine for spotting the big Q4 pension injection.

other concerns i have with canadian telcos is zero potential for international growth. Are we not more or less saturated with devices in canada? are we not supposed to be somewhere near numero uno on the planet when it comes to digital communication?

further expansion of services into remote areas will be costly, not profitable.

a cousin of these cautions is competition from foreign telcos if the CRTC relaxes its grip.

plus options in bce & telus pay zip. They are hopeless. 

all this being said, it's perfectly true that BCE has been heaven on earth for investors since early 2009 when, smack in the depths of the crash wreckage, the company suddenly increased its dividend. It's provided good capital growth ever since - although no consumer of bell services can figure out the reason - plus great dividends.

me i am sincerely happy for black mac, eder & others who have benefited from loyally holding Ma Bell all these years. I suspect such investors will go on being rewarded very handsomely.


.


----------



## yyz

Wasn't anything to be dug out the pension funding was in the earnings release coles notes

"Voluntary pension plan contribution BCE made a $400 million voluntary pension plan contribution in December 2016, further reinforcing the strong solvency position of its defined benefit (DB) pension plans, reducing the amount of future pension obligations, and effectively positioning BCE to assume the MTS DB pension plan post acquisition. The voluntary contribution to pre-fund future obligations was an efficient use of cash on hand at the end of 2016, favourably impacting BCE's free cash flow generation in 2017 due to the contribution's tax deductibility and accelerating the move to a surplus position should interest rates rise."


----------



## dubmac

The pension-funding albatross is indeed concerning with BCE and it's financials - I found the reference made by yyz, and it is somewhat reassuring.
The matter of growth in internet and wireless appears to be an issue across all of the telco's. 
The thing I like about holding Telus is their "Telus-Health" portfolio of offerings. They are and have invested considerable amounts into medical imaging, & electronic medical imaging. I am no soothe-sayer, but Telus' plans to link up pharmacies, dr's and healthcare professionals puts them in a very sweet spot - perhaps this kind initiative may spill over the border into other countries (certainly this is not a certainty, but who knows with Trump and co.). With the emphasis by govt's to control costs and make operations efficient in healthcare, they look like well poised and positioned. 
Bell on the other hand, along with Rogers has media empire holdings that add colour to it's plumage. Anyone who has attended a major sporting event (Raptors, leafs, oilers, canucks) has seen the ads at these events. It would appear Bell controls media in the east, rogers the west. I don't hold any Rogers, but with CEO Natale at the helm, it should be an interesting two years. What will he do at Rogers to get growth?.
For this reason, I have chosen telus and either rogers or bce. I think telus has been bruised in Alberta with the drop in activity there. Rogers has done well over the past 2-3 months I see, so - basically my sugestions may not lead to the conclusions that I had hoped...
BCE and Telus have been good - buy and hold types of investments thus far.


----------



## Eder

It's all about ARPU and new post paid #'s...it's going up in BCE & Roger's case and we'll see how Telus did soon. The rest is just fluff.


----------



## dubmac

per user? or per account?
http://www.eurocomms.com/features/opinion/9073-opinion-arpu-is-dead-long-live-arpa-
Money is money tho ...I see your point.


----------



## jargey3000

AAPU vs AAPA?... not clear- what's the basic difference???


----------



## dubmac

not really much of a difference jargey
My interpretation (and I emphasize..that it is my interpretation and not necessarily correct) is that some companies evaluate subscriber growth on a per account rather than a per individual basis. 
An account would, presumably, include more individual users. Perhaps in the case of Telus, their business objective may be to secure many of the accounts with health care and pharmacies, thereby securing more end-users in these industries.
bottom line - there really isn't much of a difference. just semantics I think


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> The pension-funding albatross is indeed concerning with BCE and it's financials - I found the reference made by yyz, and it is somewhat reassuring.



it's always curious how 2 persons can read the exact same text & take away polar opposite views.

i took another look at the pension reference, evidently it's from BCE's own press release so it's classic bellSpeak.

scary it is. Frothy gushing adjectives about all the wonderful benefits $400 million taken out of earnings are going to generate for the company. 

"voluntary pension contribution" - could the CRTC have given a gentle push, ie wanting to see MTS pensions covered before OKing the acquisition?
"strong solvency" - good, got that.
"efficient use of cash" - when did companies ever boast that they were spending cash inefficiently?

entirely missing was doctrine's suggested solution. JSDBs. Just Stop the DBs.




> Voluntary pension plan contribution BCE made a $400 million voluntary pension plan contribution in December 2016, further reinforcing the strong solvency position of its defined benefit (DB) pension plans, reducing the amount of future pension obligations, and effectively positioning BCE to assume the MTS DB pension plan post acquisition. The voluntary contribution to pre-fund future obligations was an efficient use of cash on hand at the end of 2016, favourably impacting BCE's free cash flow generation in 2017 due to the contribution's tax deductibility and accelerating the move to a surplus position should interest rates rise.




lost in transmission is dubmac's own contribution on Telus, which i think is brilliant. Black mac posts how telus is building a network linking pharmacies, MDs, clinics & hospitals. It's these sophisticated value-added communication networks that will reward the telcos capable of building them, one would imagine.




dubmac said:


> The thing I like about holding Telus is their "Telus-Health" portfolio of offerings. They are and have invested considerable amounts into medical imaging, & electronic medical imaging. I am no soothe-sayer, but Telus' plans to link up pharmacies, dr's and healthcare professionals puts them in a very sweet spot - perhaps this kind initiative may spill over the border into other countries



on the other hand, re BCE & media, perhaps i'm out-of-date but in recent years i've always thought that BCE was gradually divesting its unprofitable media exposure? at one point it owned part of the Globe, some regional TV, at least one major sports team, possibly more sports/entertainment media ventures. I don't know why i feel so down on this mixture. Perhaps because i think of stodgy old Ma Bell & fast-moving media as a partnership that will never be able to fly together.


.


----------



## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> entirely missing was doctrine's suggested solution. JSDBs. Just Stop the DBs..


True when one parse's the posts above - I read Bell's reports as positive, and missed the possible requirement nudge that you alluded to...interesting. BTW HP what are "JSDB's"? 




humble_pie said:


> perhaps i'm out-of-date but in recent years I've always thought that BCE was gradually divesting its unprofitable media exposure?
> .


...or, more possibly (more more likely), I am out of date on BCE's plans to divest from media...

Telus is also investing substantially in Quebec as well..read "By the end of 2020 TELUS will have invested more than $27 billion in Quebec since 2000." https://about.telus.com/community/e...d-communications-infrastructure-across-quebec. 
Difficult to say where they expect subscribers to come from, or how they will get their investment back. Where is Videotron in all of this?


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> BTW HP what are "JSDB's"?



what doctrine said. Just Stop the Defined Benefits.

.


----------



## Rebecca

humble_pie said:


> what doctrine said. Just Stop the Defined Benefits.
> 
> .


Bell stopped the DB pension for new hires (they automatically were signed up to a DC plan) about 20 years ago and also offered it to employees at the same time. Some employees moved to the DC plan and some stayed on the DB. So the only ones left on the DB plan are current retirees and some active employees, but the active DB employees are dwindling, as are the retirees.


----------



## humble_pie

Rebecca said:


> Bell stopped the DB pension for new hires (they automatically were signed up to a DC plan) about 20 years ago and also offered it to employees at the same time. Some employees moved to the DC plan and some stayed on the DB. So the only ones left on the DB plan are current retirees and some active employees, but the active DB employees are dwindling, as are the retirees.



thankx very much for the update.

would you happen to have some insights into BCE's strategic planning? are we right in thinking the company has stepped away from the sports/entertainment/media sector. It wasn't a bad idea, owning all the vertically integrated businesses from the performers themselves, to the arena, stadium or stage venue, then on to what the media customer would ultimately consume on his viewing or listening device.

my understanding is that Ma Bell just wasn't very good at making money at it.

this brings me back to my original fret. Where will canadian telcos expand? BCE had an international subsidiary a few years ago, it was a disaster. Inside canada, surely this country is fully linked up, how much more domestic ARPU can they count on for the future. Especially if population does not increase via immigration, which might turn out to be the case as the immigration issue is controversial right now.

still, BCE share prices look strong as a rock, so this tells me there's some thing or several things that i'm not seeing. Can you help out here Rebecca? 

in the meantime, for international exposure & growth with high dividend payout along the way, i'm looking more to canadian banks & financials.

.


----------



## Pluto

humble_pie said:


> t
> this brings me back to my original fret. Where will canadian telcos expand?
> 
> in the meantime, for international exposure & growth with high dividend payout along the way, i'm looking more to canadian banks & financials.
> 
> .


I'm guessing that you have a valid concern here, although one never knows when they might pull a rabbit out of the hat. 

My impression is that most of the positive comments on BCE come from buyers in the 2008-11 era. Total return from that time to now has been about 14% annually, whicn explains the positive sentiments. but a longer term view, commencing in 2001, for example, has total return at 3.7% annually. 

I think it is possible that going forward we might see total returns being closer to the latter, 3.7% than the former 14%.


----------



## Eder

Pluto said:


> My impression is that most of the positive comments on BCE come from buyers in the 2008-11 era. Total return from that time to now has been about 14% annually, whicn explains the positive sentiments. but a longer term view, commencing in 2001, for example, has total return at 3.7% annually.


Actually Pluto, since 1996 BCE has averaged a annual total return of 16% almost up there with Royal Bank but with a lot less volatility.

. About 73% of Canadians own a smartphone leaving a lot of people to sign up...more & more are using more than one device. In Canada, mobile data traffic will grow 600% from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 42%. (Cisco, VNI Mobile Forecast Highlights, 2015-2020). Looks like the party goes on & on.


----------



## Rebecca

humble_pie said:


> thankx very much for the update.
> 
> would you happen to have some insights into BCE's strategic planning? are we right in thinking the company has stepped away from the sports/entertainment/media sector. It wasn't a bad idea, owning all the vertically integrated businesses from the performers themselves, to the arena, stadium or stage venue, then on to what the media customer would ultimately consume on his viewing or listening device.
> 
> my understanding is that Ma Bell just wasn't very good at making money at it.
> 
> this brings me back to my original fret. Where will canadian telcos expand? BCE had an international subsidiary a few years ago, it was a disaster. Inside canada, surely this country is fully linked up, how much more domestic ARPU can they count on for the future. Especially if population does not increase via immigration, which might turn out to be the case as the immigration issue is controversial right now.
> 
> still, BCE share prices look strong as a rock, so this tells me there's some thing or several things that i'm not seeing. Can you help out here Rebecca?
> 
> in the meantime, for international exposure & growth with high dividend payout along the way, i'm looking more to canadian banks & financials.
> 
> .


Sorry, I don't follow the company or the stock carefully, other than being a retiree who watches issues such as changes that the government proposes to pension plans, and of course, as a retiree with some stock, I hope that it continues to do well and that my shares continue to appreciate in value.


----------



## OptsyEagle

Eder said:


> Actually Pluto, since 1996 BCE has averaged a annual total return of 16% almost up there with Royal Bank but with a lot less volatility.


Eder, I suspect your numbers are the ones from BCE directly, which include the value of Nortel that they spun off...valued at the value when they spun it off.

Although, that method of calculating their rate of return is not necessarily wrong, I would bet for the lion's share of BCE investors, it is very very wrong. Once you strip out that Nortel value, which the stock market did quite effectively for most BCE investors, I think you will find your numbers are extremely overstated.


----------



## Eder

All I did was plug into http://longrundata.com/ since I'm to lazy to dig deeper...thanks for the correction.


----------



## dubmac

here is the morningstar report for BCE (mid Dec 2016) - may be of interest to some. There is not much, if nay reference to plans around divesting from media...


BCE faces greater challenges in its fixed-line business, which still accounts for close to 60% of revenue and profits. BCE competes with a handful of cable companies in eastern Canada, such as Rogers and Videotron, whose networks are more robust and cost-efficient than BCE’s legacy phone network. BCE has connected fiber to about 2.7 million homes, where it is able to offer higher-quality Internet connectivity at relatively low maintenance costs. Still, network weakness outside of BCE’s fiber footprint is a direct drag on operating costs and leaves BCE vulnerable to competition, while fiber expansion is capital-intensive. We believe that BCE’s ability to earn economic profits in the fixed-line business is somewhat constrained by that is typical of recent trend. 

The firm added the most postpaid wireless customers (112,000) in over two years and grew average revenue per user, at a solid pace.Despite slight uptick in customer churn for both postpaid and prepaid businesses, we continued to believe that BCE’s strong competitive position is intact both in the wireless business and wireline business, especially since cable rival Rogers is delaying its IP TV launch till 2018,giving BCE ample time to grow its IP TV customer base. After accounting for management outlook for 2017, we are maintaining our narrow-moat rating and our CAD 53 fair value estimate, which indicates that the Canada-listed share is fairly valued. We are lifting our fair value estimate of the U.S.-listed share to $41 per share due to fluctuations in exchange rates. 

During the quarter, BCE’s total revenue grew by 2% over last year, thanks to robust growth in wireless revenue (6% year-over-year) and solid growth in media revenue (4% year-over-year) that together more than offset continued flattish decline (-1%) in fixed line business. The firm’s net addition of postpaid wireless customers is noticeably ahead of large peer Rogers (93,000) and smaller carrier Shaw (43,000) and substantially better than the same quarter last year, as the Canadian wireless industry put behind the impact from the mandated early expiration of three-year contracts. Although postpaid customer churn ticked up to 1.45%, from 1.38% a year ago, we still find BCE’s overall wireless performance quite impressive in a promotion-heavy quarter. Wireless EBITDA margin decreased to 35.8% from 36.2% a year ago, with the rising cost of acquisition and retention that is tied with more expensive smartphone upgrades being the common culprit. BCE expects to close the MTS acquisition by first-quarter 2017, anticipating little remaining regulatory issues.

*Risk*
Alex Zhao, Eq. Analyst, 02 February 2017 We assign BCE a medium uncertainty rating. We view regulatory pressure as one of the biggest risks for BCE and its large peers, as regulators keep looking for ways to introduce competition. For instance, in 2015, the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, or CRTC, mandated large carriers to offer roaming to small competitors at deeper discounts, and capped all wireless customer contracts at two years, preventing large carriers from locking up customers with longer contract terms. It is very likely that the CRTC will reduce roaming fees further, which should improve the cost structures of smaller carriers. Spectrum policy is another wild card for the industry, although we like BCE’s overall prudent approach toward acquiring new spectrum in recent years.

BCE and Telus’ network-sharing partnership is key for BCE to maintain its network advantage. Regulators could scrutinize this alliance if they start viewing the agreement as anticompetitive. Alternatively, they may demand the two telcos to expand this agreement to smaller carriers on overly generous terms. On the other hand, Rogers and other cable companies could form a similar agreement, just like Rogers and Videotron have done, to a limited degree, in Quebec. The odds of this are low, however, given Rogers’ network superiority in most of Canada, which gives Rogers little incentive to desire access to others’ networks.

BCE remains the largest phone company in Canada, but the satellite TV and landline phone businesses continue to face secular headwinds. Competitive pressure from cable companies will persist for both the consumer and enterprise businesses. High costs associated with fiber expansion could further hinder BCE’s ability to compete on price. Similar to the wireless business, regulators could also require BCE to make its fiber networks available to rivals at modest rates. 

*Management*

Alex Zhao, Eq. Analyst, 14 December 2016
We view BCE’s corporate stewardship as Standard. In our view, the firm has been prudent in bidding for spectrum and media content. The firm has spent the least on spectrum among the three large wireless carriers, yet it still holds a competitive spectrum portfolio. The firm also remained disciplined in the bidding war with Rogers on NHL broadcasting rights, which Rogers ultimately won at a lofty price. Most of BCE’s past acquisitions seem reasonable to us. In May 2015, BCE acquired Glentel, the biggest independent mobile phone retailer in Canada, and subsequently divested 50% ownership to Rogers. This retail chain now sells both BCE’s and Rogers’ brands and signs up about 10% of total new wireless customers for BCE. More recently, BCE agreed to acquire Manitoba Telecom Services for CAD 3.9 billion, a reasonable price for a firm that will greatly strengthen BCE's presence in the province.


----------



## Pluto

Eder said:


> Actually Pluto, since 1996 BCE has averaged a annual total return of 16% almost up there with Royal Bank but with a lot less volatility.
> 
> . About 73% of Canadians own a smartphone leaving a lot of people to sign up...more & more are using more than one device. In Canada, mobile data traffic will grow 600% from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 42%. (Cisco, VNI Mobile Forecast Highlights, 2015-2020). Looks like the party goes on & on.


Mind you, I'm not knocking BCE as a source of income. Its a solid company with reliable dividend stream. But I don't think it has grown as fast as longrun data portrays. in 1997 BCE price was about 25, now it is about 57 - up aboput 110%. RY is up about 1000% during same time.


----------



## humble_pie

Rebecca said:


> Sorry, I don't follow the company or the stock carefully, other than being a retiree who watches issues such as changes that the government proposes to pension plans, and of course, as a retiree with some stock, I hope that it continues to do well and that my shares continue to appreciate in value.



thankx again for your input.

me i think some BCE is downright imperative for a retiree's portfolio. How much is up to each individual personnage. 

hope u are not put off by the fretting & gnashing over Ma Bell in this thread. Please pay no attention, it's just the way we do go on here.

.


----------



## Eder

Pluto said:


> . in 1997 BCE price was about 25, now it is about 57 - up aboput 110%.


I think you missed a split that year?


----------



## gibor365

Eder said:


> I think you missed a split that year?


They had split in May 1997,

As per TDW chart in Feb 3, 1997 , BCE was $8.18.


10 years annualized return >10% (with DRIP)
Start date:	02/05/2007	
End date:	02/03/2017	
Start price/share:	$26.12	
End price/share:	$44.06	
Starting shares:	382.85	
Ending shares:	612.55	
Dividends reinvested/share:	$17.49	
Total return:	169.89%	
Average Annual Total Return:	10.43%	
Starting investment:	$10,000.00	
Ending investment:	$26,976.70	
Years:	10.00


----------



## Eder

I figured I first bought BCE in 1996 but can't remember getting any Nortel shares. I guess if they were sold immediately investors were well rewarded.


----------



## Rebecca

humble_pie said:


> thankx again for your input.
> 
> me i think some BCE is downright imperative for a retiree's portfolio. How much is up to each individual personnage.
> 
> hope u are not put off by the fretting & gnashing over Ma Bell in this thread. Please pay no attention, it's just the way we do go on here.
> 
> .


No gnashing or fretting, but thank you so much for your concern.


----------



## Pluto

gibor365 said:


> They had split in May 1997,
> 
> As per TDW chart in Feb 3, 1997 , BCE was $8.18.
> 
> 
> 10 years annualized return >10% (with DRIP)
> Start date:	02/05/2007
> End date:	02/03/2017
> Start price/share:	$26.12
> End price/share:	$44.06
> Starting shares:	382.85
> Ending shares:	612.55
> Dividends reinvested/share:	$17.49
> Total return:	169.89%
> Average Annual Total Return:	10.43%
> Starting investment:	$10,000.00
> Ending investment:	$26,976.70
> Years:	10.00


As per the price data from BCE website, 
http://www.bce.ca/investors/stock-info/stockpricehistory

The price on feb,3, 1997 was 69.7.

The post split 2 for 1, price on may 12 1997 was 34.75. 

34.75 to present 57.85, is a 66.47% gain over some 20 years. 

However, that does not reflect the Nortel spin off (@1.570), nor the Bell Alliant distribution (@.0725). Presently I do not have the mind to calculate the benifits of the latter two events, but presumably it would make matters look much better.


----------



## Pluto

I might add that the compound annual return from 1983 to present is aproximatly 5.2 % not counting dividends and spinoffs, but accounting for the 2 for 1 split.


----------



## Eder

Shareholders got 1.52 Nortel shares( the deal was .75 shares but Nortel split right after) from each BCE share worth about $120/share in late 2000. I think that would affect total return more realistically. Unless we held onto the Nortel shares of course haha.


----------



## james4beach

You can use stockcharts.com, which adjusts for splits and dividends (unlike google finance). Here's BCE since 2000:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&st=2000-01-01&en=(today)&id=p19949486825

It was "dead money" from 2000-2009. It's only the performance since 2009 that's been eye catching. So let's not pretend that it's been a steady gainer for multiple decades. The amazing performance in the last 8 years is why most of us are captivated with it.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> You can use stockcharts.com, which adjusts for splits and dividends (unlike google finance). Here's BCE since 2000:
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&st=2000-01-01&en=(today)&id=p19949486825
> 
> It was "dead money" from 2000-2009. It's only the performance since 2009 that's been eye catching. So let's not pretend that it's been a steady gainer for multiple decades. The amazing performance in the last 8 years is why most of us are captivated with it.


Still BCE was paying dividends , yielding between 4-5%, not too bad


----------



## doctrine

There's been a lot of cherry picking with dates here. Today is what matters. BCE is rarely "cheap". The difference now is growth is a little slower, payouts are a little higher, and the dividend is a little lower. Really though, we're not talking about a big difference between 'expensive' and 'a reasonable price for a quality investment'. BCE looks expensive-ish at $58 with a 5% yield. At $48, it would have a 6% yield, a P/E of 13-14 and would be very attractive, although it is very unlikely we will be fortunate enough for it to fall that far. Don't underestimate BCE's ability to grow wireless and data revenues, and take share from arguably far worse companies like Shaw, and continue to inch up earnings and revenues. They will also squeak out some improvements from the MBT takeover.


----------



## gibor365

> Don't underestimate BCE's ability to grow wireless and data revenues


 Canada accepts every year 250,000 independent immigrants, plus business immigrants, and sponsorship immigrants and thousands of refugees and thousands of foreign workers etc.... Practically every one needs cellphones, many need tablets and cables ... The big guys like BCE, RCI and T gonna grow only because of that


----------



## yyz

Bce announces they are going to be buying Alarm Force

http://business.financialpost.com/p...rce-for-166m-to-grow-its-position-in-security


----------



## kcowan

I don't get the 70% pop! Does that imply that Alarm Force was undervalued by that much?


----------



## gardner

kcowan said:


> Does that imply that Alarm Force was undervalued by that much?


It is simply the price that BCE agreed to pay.



> The AlarmForce acquisition will be completed through a plan of arrangement under which Bell will acquire all the issued and outstanding common shares of AlarmForce for $16.00 per share


http://www.newswire.ca/news-release...-acquire-alarmforce-industries-655682093.html

Whether it is "fair" or BCE is paying too much is anyone's guess.


----------



## milhouse

Seems kind of pricey to me too but it fits with what BCE is trying to do in rolling out Smart Home services. It gives them a foot in the door to 100k existing customers to build off of. The sale price is $166M so customer acquisition cost is $1660 each. How much would it have taken in terms of marketing, subsidies, and/or perks to build this customer base from scratch?


----------



## yyz

It gives them a foot in the door to 100k customers - existing Bell customers where they already have a foot in the door.Not sure what the number would be. But it could tie in nicely to having a cell backup for the alarm and/or landline for monitoring. More bundling opportunities.
Quite a premium,guess I'm probably sad I didn't own AF. Seems crazy the stock went above $16 offer price for a while people can't be expecting a better offer for the company?


----------



## lightcycle

milhouse said:


> Seems kind of pricey to me too but it fits with what BCE is trying to do in rolling out Smart Home services. It gives them a foot in the door to 100k existing customers to build off of. The sale price is $166M so customer acquisition cost is $1660 each. How much would it have taken in terms of marketing, subsidies, and/or perks to build this customer base from scratch?


Well, that $1,660 is offset by ongoing AF subscription revenue...


----------



## milhouse

Here's an article in the Financial Post by Emily Jackson that analyzes BCE's reasoning behind buying AlarmForce. 

A quick summary is that overall, it's a relatively small transaction but it gives BCE increased ability to better compete with Rogers in Ontario and Quebec to "Own the Home" by selling Smart Home packages, potentially bundling other services, and reducing churn. Basic telephone service which has been a cash cow for telecoms is obviously on the decline so the next business model appears to be to sell these Smart Home and Internet of Things services over the Internet pipe. It's also kind of why their FTTH rollout is pretty key so they can deliver all these various services over a big enough pipe.


----------



## nobleea

yyz said:


> But it could tie in nicely to having a cell backup for the alarm and/or landline for monitoring. More bundling opportunities.


Alarmforce already has a built in GSM communicator. That's how the whole 'two way' voice system works.

Rogers has an alarm system offering. Pricey, but the GUI is pretty slick. I assume this is just Bell getting up to speed.
I've had Alarmforce for a year now.


----------



## Mookie

BCE is close to hitting a 52 week low, and is down about 8% from it's recent high on Dec 13th. Buying opportunity?


----------



## milhouse

If you're in it for the dividend, it's likely a safe bet it will continue to grow at about 5% a year for the next few years at minimum.
I've been reading that there might be continued pressure on the share price this year if interest rates continue to rise. However, that's not a guarantee, particularly if NAFTA dies. 

Disclosure: I own shares of BCE. Will continue to hold but not sure if I'm ready to buy a bunch more other than the DRIP I'm doing.


----------



## Eder

I added some more BCE with the few k that they gave me the other day (div). I like paying $58 rather than $63. I like they are falling out of favor.The truck backs up at $53.


----------



## doctrine

5% yield is a good buy. Near the top of my list to buy right now below $58. Doubtful it hits $53, but I would also be picking up a big chunk down there.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Continue to DRIP x2 shares every quarter. Not adding any more other than that. Could be a real deal if it gets under $55 but I doubt it will get there. Pretty good deal right now around $58.


----------



## stantistic

*Posy*


I used to think that BCE 
Was for widows, orphans and me. 
Now, as far as I can tell, 
It seems to be going all to hell.

For reasoning, see thread "Call Display" in Frugal Forum.


----------



## yyz

And how many people do you think are giving up their cell phones? None and that is where the money is.


----------



## jargey3000

yyz said:


> And how many people do you think are giving up their cell phones? None and that is where the money is.


...I dunno...if they continue to lose that critical 80+ -year old customer category, they cud be in real truoble....

btw, just for possible future thread reference, BCE closed this week (Fri. Mar 2 /18) @ $56.09


----------



## Eder

My grandaughter earns $15/hour yet owns a $1000 phone on 2 year contract with monthly Telus payments about $150/month. She bitches about her $200/month car payment though lol. Buy buy buy>


----------



## humble_pie

yyz said:


> And how many people do you think are giving up their cell phones? None and that is where the money is.



smart things aren't giving up their cells but they *are* switching to cheaper telcos

read cmf forum
they haven't seen Bell in years


----------



## doctrine

I have plenty of friends on Freedom mobile, which is the only true competitor to the Big 3. It's service is really crap, and they all hate it, but only suck it up because they save money. That doesn't last forever; cell phones are so important to every day lives that it is worth it to pay $40/mo more for real fast and flawless wireless service. They are already upgrading to Big 3 plans when they are on sale, which brings them back into the family. It doesn't cost $150/mo for a awesome plan from Bell/Rogers/Telus, but it might cost $80-100. Sticking with my BCE/T stock.


----------



## jargey3000

...BCE was my father's best stock...so there!...


----------



## Eder

Rather than watch a movie in my boat on the 36" flat screen, the grandkids downloaded one onto the boy's new Pixel phone & watched the movie on that. My brain almost exploded but I now believe the fact that my investing strategy is sound.


----------



## yyz

humble_pie said:


> smart things aren't giving up their cells but they *are* switching to cheaper telcos
> 
> read cmf forum
> they haven't seen Bell in years


Sure keep telling yourself that

https://www.bnn.ca/bce-boosts-dividend-as-it-adds-175-000-wireless-subscribers-1.992055

https://www.telus.com/en/about/news...eports-strong-results-for-fourth-quarter-2017


----------



## milhouse

I'm hoping there's more growth to be extracted from the wireless side of the business. The net adds on the post paid for the big 3 have been very strong recently after a few weaker quarters a couple of years ago. On the quarterly calls, they cite a growing population, a wider demographic (younger kids with cells phones on a family share plan and older folks converting to smart phones), and multiple device like tablets or people with a dedicated work and personal phone. The user penetration is only in the mid 70% I think whereas in the States, it's above 100% due to multiple devices.

I am curious how they are going to be able to develop revenue growing products in the smart home that takes advantage of the FTTH they are rolling out. The Alarm Force acquisition is kind of the tip of the iceberg.


----------



## 30seconds

Cheaper telcos are owned buy the big three..


----------



## m3s

Big three also own the infrastructure.

For example startup Public Mobile was using Bell/Telus network until they got swallowed up by Telus. I imagine any internet or wireless resellers are still paying the big three and if they undercut their discount brands they just get bought out. Why anyone today uses the big 3 direct when their own discount brands use the same network for cheaper is beyond me. I'm guessing for convenience of the combined bills..

Like using the big banks expensive mortgages with crappy terms because convenience and loyalty


----------



## milhouse

m3s said:


> Why anyone today uses the big 3 direct when their own discount brands use the same network for cheaper is beyond me. I'm guessing for convenience of the combined bills..


Generally agree but they are some feature and service differentiation based on tier. Whether or not it's worth it to pay more for the features and service is debatable. 
Business-wise, customers switching to a cheaper tier likely impacts top line revenue numbers but likely doesn't impact margins as much, if at all.


----------



## My Own Advisor

m3s said:


> Big three also own the infrastructure.
> 
> For example startup Public Mobile was using Bell/Telus network until they got swallowed up by Telus. I imagine any internet or wireless resellers are still paying the big three and if they undercut their discount brands they just get bought out. Why anyone today uses the big 3 direct when their own discount brands use the same network for cheaper is beyond me. I'm guessing for convenience of the combined bills..
> 
> Like using the big banks expensive mortgages with crappy terms because convenience and loyalty


That's the thing. Since the big three own the infrastructure - best to own those.


----------



## humble_pie

stochs & RSI charts look oh so bullish for BCE right now. Then there's that tempting dividend.

but what about the probability that foreign telcos will be able to encroach seriously on canadian IP market, esp if/when NAFTA fails.


----------



## Eder

Wouldn't encroachment be more likely if NAFTA is retained? There is likely to be many more threats to the triopoly but with the advent of real 5G there is a brand new upgrade/application/data usage curve coming. Should be profitable in the long run.


----------



## yyz

Didn't we already go through this once when Verizon was coming?Turned out to be a great buying opportunity to own the big 3 .

US carriers will look at our population size and the infrastructure required to build it out and walk away.Or ride on the existing big 3 infrastructure like the micro carriers do now.


----------



## Gumball

yyz said:


> Didn't we already go through this once when Verizon was coming?Turned out to be a great buying opportunity to own the big 3 .
> 
> US carriers will look at our population size and the infrastructure required to build it out and walk away.Or ride on the existing big 3 infrastructure like the micro carriers do now.


I agree, if we get another scare from AT&T or Verizon I will be backing up the truck to buy more T or BCE if a buying opportunity presents itself...


----------



## TomB19

On the commercial data side, Bell has a lot more going for it than Telus.


----------



## humble_pie

Gumball said:


> I will be backing up the ...



gosh there is a lot of noise from trucks being backed up these days. There are nights when i'm woken up in the wee pre-dawn hours by all the semis reverse gearing in the street outside my house.

makes me think the correction is not yet upon us


.


----------



## Gumball

humble_pie said:


> There are nights when i'm woken up in the wee pre-dawn hours by all the semis reverse gearing in the street outside my house..


sorry to hear that..you must not live in that nice of an area 

But yes my plan still holds to significantly increase my positions in CNR,TD,T,BCE, and IPL if I sense a buying opportunity... this is for my TFSA,RRSP and RESP, will be using it to fund my retirement in 20 years and kids education in 15 yrs, so long terms buys, looking at it for the future...


----------



## MaverickBenz

Always good to hear it from the horses mouth so they say.... I have been a long time Telus customer over over 12 year and just within the last year I have noticed that their call centres all all overseas now. I've had extremely long wait times and brutal customer service. I've been very loyal to Telus, but it's got to a point where it's just not what it used to be. So as a long time customer, I will be switching my service provider to BCE. I've looked at both the Telus and Bell stocks and BCE just has a much larger moat than Telus does, and for that reason I've purchased BCE at it's recent lows.


----------



## milhouse

I own both BCE and T. 
Today's Q1 results were solid but the share price still took a hit. Dividend stocks are definitely feeling the effects of being out of favour. 
I think they're well position to continue to grow their dividend by 5% a year for the next few years at minimum. If their shares continue down to around $50, their yield will be about 6% which is nuts.


----------



## james4beach

Unfortunately I think the dividend stocks are suffering from rising interest rates. They seem to have the same sensitivity to rising rates as bonds do. Dividend stocks have been treated like bonds for a while now and they benefited tremendously in the ultra low interest rate environment of the last 10 years.

I think the following chart illustrates this effect. Here is an overlay of the broad bond index XBB (in orange) with BCE (black). I see a correlation there, e.g. the bond rally and recent high in December corresponds to the peak BCE price: http://schrts.co/g462Qd

In particular, look at the "up" vs "down" phases and how well they align.


----------



## doctrine

BCE is very exposed to interest rate risk. BCE will be unable to grow more than 2-4% a year consistently, and the same for the dividend in the long run. So people will sell BCE for bonds if interest rates rise, because BCE's dividend doesn't rise that fast anyway. 

BCE has been a great buy when the yield was around 6%, because that is a pretty good premium to bonds that provides some buffer. I think it was expensive above $60 but definitely like it closer to $50 and that 6% yield.


----------



## MrsPartridge

BCE says that when interest rates rise, they actually save money on their pensions. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bce-is-an-ironic-dividend-stock-poised-to-benefit-from-higher-rates-ceo-1.1079636

_But we actually generate more cash flow if interest rates go up, as a company, which is a very unusual situation because of the history of our pension and what we’ve done in this country._

I read that BCE is one of the stocks that's expected to rally in the next two months. Let's see.


----------



## AltaRed

BCE has been a dog for the most part. Stock price today the same as 3 years ago. I am not convinced it has 'growing' power any more. Any gains in wireless gets lost in Bell Media and land lines.

Added: One of the reasons I like Telus better is no media arm to drag results down. Both network and cable programming is withering in this digital age.


----------



## humble_pie

MrsPartridge said:


> BCE says that when interest rates rise, they actually save money on their pensions. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bce-is-an-ironic-dividend-stock-poised-to-benefit-from-higher-rates-ceo-1.1079636
> 
> "But we actually generate more cash flow if interest rates go up, as a company, which is a very unusual situation because of the history of our pension and what we’ve done in this country"[says the BCE CEO]
> 
> I read that BCE is one of the stocks that's expected to rally in the next two months. Let's see.




the effect on pension payout is thought to be a solid issue, i believe. For years, toronto forensic accountant Al Rosen has been warning that BCE's financial statements don't show the huge liability of their pension payouts. Any relief on pension obligations due to rising interest rates could improve bell balance sheets.

recently i was looking at a few charting features for BCE - stochs, bollinger bands, RSI, even the money flow index so favoured by cmffer pluto - & i was surprised to see how bullish these forward-looking indicators were. BCE could have a bounce, we'll see as mrs partridge says.


----------



## james4beach

MrsPartridge said:


> I read that BCE is one of the stocks that's expected to rally in the next two months. Let's see.


If it's such a sure thing, wouldn't people buy it now, driving the stock price up to the point where the "expected rally" occurs ahead of schedule?


----------



## humble_pie

^^ except BCE is not any kind of sure thing, it's a tired old dog of a stock as altaRed so accurately puts the other side of the story just upthread


----------



## ontario99

MrsPartridge said:


> BCE says that when interest rates rise, they actually save money on their pensions. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bce-is-an-ironic-dividend-stock-poised-to-benefit-from-higher-rates-ceo-1.1079636
> 
> _But we actually generate more cash flow if interest rates go up, as a company, which is a very unusual situation because of the history of our pension and what we’ve done in this country._
> 
> I read that BCE is one of the stocks that's expected to rally in the next two months. Let's see.


I hope you're right (and so far you're but it's only been less than 2 weeks..) I am a bit under, so I would love BCE to pick it back up.


----------



## newfoundlander61

I have been looking at adding BCE to my current holdings as a core long term hold. The stock doesn't seem to go up or down alot. Is an entry point as simple as just buying it when you have the money rather than trying to find a lower price entry. Also as most if not all stocks will go down to some degree in a correction how does BCE hold up. Thanks for any info or input.


----------



## Dilbert

I’m a huge BCE fan and hold quite a lot. My only future concern for any telecomm is the daft liberal agenda to reduce cell phone pricing. Apparently they think that a country as large and as sparsely populated as Canada should not merit any premium pricing to compensate for this fact.


----------



## agent99

newfoundlander61 said:


> I have been looking at adding BCE to my current holdings as a core long term hold. The stock doesn't seem to go up or down alot. Is an entry point as simple as just buying it when you have the money rather than trying to find a lower price entry. Also as most if not all stocks will go down to some degree in a correction how does BCE hold up. Thanks for any info or input.


Morningstar have BCE, Telus and Shaw on their "Consider Buying" list. Fair value quoted was $66, $50 and $29 respectively. BCE is my largest holding across all accounts, so not planning on buying more. Have some Telus in RRIF, but no Shaw.


----------



## AltaRed

Dilbert said:


> I’m a huge BCE fan and hold quite a lot. My only future concern for any telecomm is the daft liberal agenda to reduce cell phone pricing. Apparently they think that a country as large and as sparsely populated as Canada should not merit any premium pricing to compensate for this fact.


I think that is mostly a red herring....because what I have read (as compared to know for fact) is that pricing plans have already come down almost the full amount spouted by the Libs and NDP. Rest assured the telecoms would reduce their capital plans on 5G if they have to reduce pricing plans further. That all said, I expect there to be some headwinds on market valuations due to this overhang....but nothing material. Disclosure: I own Bell, Rogers, Telus and would never own Shaw.


----------



## Eder

newfoundlander61 said:


> The stock doesn't seem to go up or down alot. .


It has a 10 year CAGR of 14.54%...so it does like to go up. (BCE is still over 20% of my net worth). 
I don't think its cheap right now,(I've been selling some\at any rate) but give it a bad quarter or more socialist rulings from the CRTC can make entry less pricey.

(I would never own Shaw either...another TransAlta )


----------



## agent99

Eder said:


> It has a 10 year CAGR of 14.54%...so it does like to go up. (BCE is still over 20% of my net worth).
> I don't think its cheap right now,(I've been selling some\at any rate) but give it a bad quarter or more socialist rulings from the CRTC can make entry less pricey.
> 
> (I would never own Shaw either...another TransAlta )


It's not cheap, but then neither are equities in general. Trading at $64 vs Morningstar's $66 Fair Value, it may still be a buy for first time buyer. For us, it has been a stellar performer. Total Return about double TSX Composite over time we have owned it. 

Only Shaw we own - Dish plus two receivers and a PVR  They work well!


----------



## newfoundlander61

Thanks for the helpful insight, I hold Telus and is a good solid dividend payer.


----------



## humble_pie

my concern has always been Where & How can canadian telcos grow? they're not active outside canada - Bell's international foray some years back was a disaster - so growth in this country is limited to cellphone expansion plus population growth by immigration. 

i've been puzzled by BCE's whopping recent advance & assume this is due to ongoing flight to dividend payors, in particular those that are perceived to be quality dividend payors.

negatives being said, of course i own Ma B along with everybody else & am not even planning to cut back ...


----------



## m3s

There's a new internet space race coming. Hard to say how much this will impact Cdn telcos long term or if they will manage to line the pockets of their CRTC buds to shelter them from competition again

SpaceX is launching hundreds of internet satellites per month to get Starlink functional before the next hurricane season. Its first satellites cover most of Cdn populations because of how orbital inclination works. Haven't heard if they have acquired downlink frequency spectrum in Canada but they have in US.

Now multiple companies both US and abroad are planning to also launch 1000s of internet satellites. SpaceX pricing is said to be very attractive and others will compete. It doesn't replace terrestrial internet but it certainly can take a chunk out of the more lucrative performance plans because this should be faster (lower latency) especially in rural areas like most of Canada

With aging population aint no millennials paying for network tv or land line. 5G network will be the profitable moat


----------



## doctrine

BCE has traded near this valuation for close to a decade. Always has a 5-6% yield. But they have nearly a lot more customers than 10 years ago - over 3 million new Canadians in that time. And the average bills are much higher. The growth is incremental, but 3-5% a year, every year, over a decade, adds up. As they invest more, their moat gets stronger - no international teleco is going to come here and invest, especially not outside the big 6 cities.


----------



## m3s

They don't have to come here anymore though. 1000s of satellites orbiting over most other countries will also orbit over the majority of Canadian populations.

The only thing they need from Canada is frequency spectrum. SpaceX got around this by using undesirable frequencies and directional antennas

I suspect that as space internet grows they will buy up better frequencies which only improves the technology. BCE doesn't even see this coming they are so sheltered


----------



## agent99

I read that Musk is developing the Starlink satellite internet system, so he can make money selling internet services. The money is needed for his Mars program - eventual colonization of Mars. He figures that sooner or later we will have ruined Earth and will need an alternative. 

He is running behind Schedule. In early 2018: _Speaking to a packed theater in Austin, Texas, Musk said he expects SpaceX to begin making short trips back and forth to Mars in the first half of 2019._

Subarus already have Starlink. But only in USA. Maybe there will be a TM issue  https://www.subaru.com/engineering/starlink.html

SORRY - I guess this thread is about BCE - Back to our regular programming.


----------



## humble_pie

m3s said:


> They don't have to come here anymore though. 1000s of satellites orbiting over most other countries will also orbit over the majority of Canadian populations.
> 
> The only thing they need from Canada is frequency spectrum. SpaceX got around this by using undesirable frequencies and directional antennas
> 
> I suspect that as space internet grows they will buy up better frequencies which only improves the technology. BCE doesn't even see this coming they are so sheltered



undesirable frequencies will dampen or end spaceEx plans for canada. Surely it couldn't have been a money thing, that they had to buy cheap undesirable frequencies. Surely they could have afforded better frequencies from the getgo.

this leads me to wonder whether the crtc prevented them from buying better frequencies initially. Does this mean that the only thing intervening between present situation & good-bye-forever-canadian-telcos is continued CRTC ability to control bandwidth.

does everybody else understand about all this & i am the only one who doesn't? or are we all clueless retros? 

call me stick-in-the-mud but i much rather have an internet somewhat attended to by the crtc than an internet sold to me by elon musk


----------



## m3s

agent99 said:


> SORRY - I guess this thread is about BCE - Back to our regular programming.


Isn't BCE in the internet market? Who subscribes to landlines anymore. I would imagine it's a major market besides cell data



humble_pie said:


> undesirable frequencies will dampen or end spaceEx plans for canada. Surely it couldn't have been a money thing, that they had to buy cheap undesirable frequencies. Surely they could have afforded better frequencies from the getgo.


Rather spacex designed this network to use less desirable frequencies because they are more readily available and relatively cheap. They require bigger and more sophisticated directional antenna to use less desirable frequencies

The most desirable frequencies are used for things like radars, military communication, and analog TV signals that have since been auctioned off by CRTC to Cdn telcos. Getting such freqs around the world would cost far more than simply launching 12,000 satellites today



humble_pie said:


> call me stick-in-the-mud but i much rather have an internet somewhat attended to by the crtc than an internet sold to me by elon musk


CRTC still controls the electromagnetic spectrum in Canada. All countries police and control their EM spectrum with the same vigor they defend their land, seas and air spaces (and sometimes space space) CRTC auctioned off spectrum for example to explornet in Canada (antiquated satellite internet from viasat geostationary sat) I don't see anywhere that spacex has secured frequencies in canada yet

FANG stocks, military stocks, china, russia, europe et al want in on this lucrative new pie. BCE probably doesn't even see it coming yet, but they may own the coveted freqs, at least in canadia


----------



## milhouse

Disclosure: I own BCE shares and intend to for the long haul.

The recent dips were probably good entry points due to the uncertainty around the introduction of unlimited plans and then everyone freaking out when RCI, first to report, had to revise annual guidance downward. The shares have since recovered after BCE's reconfirmed their earnings after reporting.

In the short to medium term, I suspect BCE will continue to be able to grow their dividend annually at about a 5% clip. The growth to support this is coming from continued wireless subscriber growth (from Canadian population growth and continued wireless penetration) and migrating customers from copper DSL onto more expensive fibre Internet plans. 
Longer term growth should be coming from IOT home services and 5G IOT services. 

Key short term threats seem to be regulatory: Liberal's election promise to reduce wireless bill by 25%, decision on whether to allow BCE and T to use Huawei in their 5G build, etc.
Longer term threats are regulatory and technology disruption. Who knows if the Canadian market will ever be completely opened up to foreign competition. However, if it does happen, there would like be corresponding mergers and acquisitions. I can't say I'm fully knowledgeable about the satellite technology m3s speaks about but I would definitely deem it a threat. However, personally, I can't see how physical fibre to the home connections can be beat from a reliability and scalability perspective. And for the remote locations, BCE will be utilizing point to point 5G wireless connections. But who knows what's around the corner.


----------



## m3s

Fiber to the home can't be beat in urban areas

My parents internet can barely stream video and they aren't that far from urban areas. Canada is huge and fiber to the home isn't cost effective in most of rural Canada. My last home was closer to urban mostly for decent internet - some very nice rural options had a similarly short commute but they were using LTE for their internet. Starlink will likely undercut paying by the GB for LTE/5G data, especially if you share an antenna with neighbours

Many rural Canadians at the moment either settle for poor terrestrial internet, or pay monopolistic data rates for LTE/5G/satellite


----------



## Eder

Well I can't find the thread for dividend increases but BCE bumped theirs 5% again today. They are knocking it out of the park which is good news for most Canadian investors like me that own a **** ton of this company.

btw this thread is a decent read from the beginning...guys trying to jump in & out , others saying Wind would replace the big 3 etc. but it shows how the strategy to buy & hold quality businesses just kills the market.


----------



## agent99

m3s said:


> Fiber to the home can't be beat in urban areas


We live very close to a built urban area, but so far, Bell have not brought fiber to our area. But even if they did, I can't see any reason we would go to it. 

We use Start internet. They lease cable from Cogeco. We have their lowest speed 15Mbps. Costs $40/month. We could double this speed for another $5. But we see no reason to do so. Things like Netflix and others that we occasionally stream work fine. So why would I need 30 or 100+ Mbps? We are currently in USA where we do have 100+Mbps, but notice no difference. I have asked friends about this, and seems they think they need higher speed for gaming????

I suppose we might use Bell if they did serve our area. It would have to competitively replace (Shaw Direct TV + Start Internet) that cost us about $110/month. For home phone we have Ooma at <$5/month and can't see giving up on that. (like many, we used to have Bell landline)

Meanwhile, BCE is our largest holding and we enjoy the dividends. Bought some of it when it was in $20s because they were trying to become an income trust.


----------



## Money172375

The need for higher internet speeds is a marketing ploy. The vast majority of people could get buy with speeds of 25mbs or less. 
Unless you’re gaming or downloading movies (vs streaming), then you’ll be fine.

We have a 10mbs plan in our rural home....with two teenagers......3 screens are often streaming at night with no issues.

If I had a choice I’d probably pay for speeds up to 50mbs, but beyond that it’s not needed. The only lag I find is when we upload photos to the cloud.


----------



## m3s

It's true paying for more download bandwidth is a waste for most

The cheapest plan I could get here is now 120Mbps download for $35/mo. It was like 50Mbps last year and got bumped up for free. Even 50MBps download is lots for a typical family. Yet my upload is only 5MBps which is what you notice when uploading pics. This is not lag

The latency or ping is more like the speed/lag and they can't throttle the latency like bandwidth so they can't market it the same. Ping is what matters for gaming or say a doctor controlling a surgical robot. You could think of it more like response rate if the network is controlling say an autonomous car.

New networks like 5G and starlink improve on the latency not the bandwidth but people confuse the 2


----------



## doctrine

BCE was a January buy at $60.90 for me. Now already $64.22 and rising. Really, with Canadian immigration at 300k+ per year (close to 400k in the last year - 200k pop growth in Q3 alone), everyone will be buying cell phones and the telecom companies are just printing money hand over fist. No one will ever really compete with the big 3 and Shaw will never come up with the tens of billions necessary to overturn one of them. BCE and Telus are my picks in the space.


----------



## dubmac

doctrine said:


> No one will ever really compete with the big 3 and Shaw will never come up with the tens of billions necessary to overturn one of them. BCE and Telus are my picks in the space.


The elephant in the room is the government, and their election promise to cheapen the cost of data and cell phone plans. JT promises to cut 25% off the cost of owning a cell phone - will it happen? IDK. I think he has enough on his plate right now to deal with right now. https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/justin-trudeau-promises-to-cut-canadas-cellphone-bills-by-25-in-the-next-4-years


----------



## james4beach

One risk a BCE shareholder has to keep in mind that in Canada, we have just a couple large telcos that enjoy a duopoly type of benefit (of market control and power) in the nation. There is certainly an anti-competitive element.

BCE has enjoyed this for a long time, but it may not always be the case going forward. That's a risk that investors have to keep in mind. It's possible that due to government regulation and market forces, that the telco environment could change dramatically at some point.

That being said, BCE is still one of my largest holdings in my somewhat passive 5-pack.


----------



## gardner

james4beach said:


> in Canada, we have just a couple large telcos that enjoy a duopoly type of benefit (of market control and power) in the nation.


Well, I count BCE, Rogers, Telus, Shaw, Gogeco and Quebecor (Videotron) as the most significant players. They are not identical businesses, but play in overlapping landscapes. When I was buying my "5-pack" I went with a mix of BCE, Rogers, Telus and Shaw to cover the sector. It's more of a 28-pack.

QBR-B and CGO are also light on dividends, possibly appealing to a low-dividend investor in the segment.


----------



## james4beach

I've held QBR.B for about 3 years in my low div portfolio, but a much smaller position than BCE.

Long term performance has been pretty amazing, 10 year return of 16% per year.


----------



## humble_pie

300,000 new arrivals means how many new customer accounts, since they'll group into households? 200,000 new customer accounts seems like a generous guesstimate to me.

maybe just over half go to bce & t; next largest tier to rogers & shaw; remainder among videotron, cogeco & generic micros.

are 200,000 new customer accounts divided among 6 name telcos plus a dozen micros truly going to boost ARPU significantly?

i was looking at analyst target prices in bce, they're all aiming at low to high 60s. Highest analyst target 69. Stochs & RSI looking short-term toppish.


----------



## doctrine

300k people could mean as many as 500k accounts; virtually everyone gets their own cell phone, and then households are still signing up for land services (internet and to a lesser extent cable). No, it's not huge growth, but it is growth, and cell phones are only becoming more ubiquitous, not less - take a look around when you go out and try to find people who aren't on their phones. For the record, BCE added over 100k net new accounts in Q4 alone after subtracting legacy loss. 

So sure, I probably wouldn't be in a rush to add now but I'd just like to point out BCE is still yielding 5.2% after their recent dividend increase; it was also yielding a similar amount back in 2011-2 when I was buying shares at $35. That's a 9 year return of about 10.5% a year compounded.


----------



## humble_pie

doctrine said:


> 300k people could mean as many as 500k accounts; virtually everyone gets their own cell phone, and then households are still signing up for land services (internet and to a lesser extent cable).



so sorry, i do disagree

300,000 new arrivals in canada means 300,000 new souls. Most are grouped in families. The majority of the new souls are children. Very many are babies, infants & toddlers. No new phone accounts there.

out of 300,000 new souls, perhaps 110,000 - 150,000 adults. Perhaps 50,000 - 80,000 households. Of these, very few are rich enough to afford cell plus landline/cable plus multiple devices. Divide those 50-80k households among 6 brand telcos plus a dozen or more generic micros & earnings from this sector look like piffle to me.

agreed, dividend is nice. For generations BCE has always been Ma Bell, the widows-&-orphans cash cow w the big fat dividend. But i have a real hard time seeing future growth upon growth upon growth for ole Ma.

perhaps one could look instead for "canadian" companies like thomson reuters that are able to sell internationally, multinationally, without fetter. TRI stock has near tripled in 2 years. Bell doesn't sell outside canada.


----------



## gardner

humble_pie said:


> Most are grouped in families. The majority of the new souls are children. Very many are babies, infants & toddlers. No new phone accounts there.


But the ones who came 2, 3, 4 years ago ARE adding new accounts. Children become teenagers and waste/spend a lot of money on internet, apps and phones.


----------



## Eder

KaeJS said:


> I am not too worried about it. I know I will get it back eventually. It's just such a pain that I could have bought at a lower price and had to go through this.
> 
> Oh, well. I learned a lesson.
> 
> What I'm really hoping for is the chance to sell it above $40.50, after the ex dividend date.


Ya...no growth here.


----------



## like_to_retire

Eder said:


> Ya...no growth here.


Really, when I look at 15 years total return of BCE versus XIU index, I'll take the growth and the dividend of BCE any day of the week. I see lots of growth there in the last 10 years.









ltr


----------



## Eder

ltr...I was throwing peanuts at the gallery...


----------



## Money172375

like_to_retire said:


> Really, when I look at 15 years total return of BCE versus XIU index, I'll take the growth and the dividend of BCE any day of the week. I see lots of growth there in the last 10 years.
> 
> View attachment 19906
> 
> 
> ltr


What software are you using for the charts?


----------



## like_to_retire

Money172375 said:


> What software are you using for the charts?


One of the very few chart websites that offers both stock price charts and total return charts is Stock Charts.

It takes quite an investment of time to understand how to use their system, but worth it in the end.

ltr


----------



## agent99

Eder said:


> ltr...I was throwing peanuts at the gallery...


https://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/08/25/new-sarcasm-font-has-been-released-and-it-is-brilliant/


----------



## james4beach

Money172375 said:


> What software are you using for the charts?


Stockcharts is pretty amazing. Here's a link to a chart like that, which shows cumulative total return of two things.

http://schrts.co/frDfgRpP

BCE is in blue, TSX 60 index is in black. Both are total returns including all dividends. That second symbol is entered under Indicators, near the bottom of the chart settings.

Some other stocks that have handily outperformed the index are: RY, TD, CNR, CP, T, FTS

And here's a fun chart. It shows BCE, RY, T in black compared to XIU (index) in purple. You can see how this group has really outperformed the index since 2009: http://schrts.co/SxGCuHjx


----------



## Money172375

Thank you ltr and James.


----------



## cnnx

*Thoughts on BCE?*

BCE looks pretty good right now, has a long track record of steady growth and obviously impacted like the rest of the market at the moment, good time to buy I'm thinking?


----------



## CPA Candidate

Everyday stocks look like a good buy, then they go lower. I don't see what is stopping the TSX from hitting 4 digits. There is no precedent for what our leaders are doing.


----------



## milhouse

Wondering if the federal government will back off from their telecom affordability crusade because of how social distancing needs have illustrated the importance of maintaining solid communications infrastructure?
Or will affordability be even more top of mind due to all the layoffs/job loss pain?


----------



## americanadian

Within a week, the stock price recovered from a low of $46.03 to $57.73, only about 10% lower than pre-COVID prices. My guess is that many people working from home is benefiting the telecom industry. Any other reason for the swift recovery?


----------



## Eder

People can't be detached from the internet for more than a minute at a time....BCE makes cocaine producers look like amateurs when it comes to cash flow.


----------



## james4beach

With a medium-term view, I must say that the charts of BCE and Rogers look pretty bad to me (bearish) right now. Hope I'm misreading things.


----------



## Synergy

james4beach said:


> With a medium-term view, I must say that the charts of BCE and Rogers look pretty bad to me (bearish) right now. Hope I'm misreading things.


Turn the DRIP's on, buy more on weakness and collect the dividend. Don't worry so much about the near-term, you should be rewarded well over the long run.


----------



## dubmac

If anything, I'm looking to buy more BCE. I also see that TRP is near 50. I'll add that to the watchlist as well. I've held BCE for over 10 years - one of the buy it, DRIP it, and forget it stocks that I am expecting will add steady income in retirement. One downside to BCE, if I recall correctly, is that they have some challenges with meeting pension plan obligations. With everyone staring into screens these days tho (including yours truly), like Eder said, it's a pretty money-making business.


----------



## newfoundlander61

BCE is for sure a core holding for anyone's portfolio long term.


----------



## doctrine

Revenues are down at all Telcos. Roaming and international charges are a good portion of their business which has evaporated. They are adding tons of accounts though, so it is setting up well for when economies reopen.


----------



## robfordlives

Thankfully the Libs have committed to 1.2Million immigrants in the next three years. They will all need phone plans. Assuming 75% of them are adults at $75 per month on average = around $80Million per annum for the telcos


----------



## like_to_retire

robfordlives said:


> Thankfully the Libs have committed to 1.2Million immigrants in the next three years. They will all need phone plans. Assuming 75% of them are adults at $75 per month on average = around $80Million per annum for the telcos


Where will they get $75 a month?

ltr


----------



## m3s

doctrine said:


> Revenues are down at all Telcos. Roaming and international charges are a good portion of their business which has evaporated. They are adding tons of accounts though, so it is setting up well for when economies reopen.


Tourist destinations have offered tourist sims for eons but people were too bothered to swap sims. This increased in popularity with dual sims and just wiser consumers in general

eSIM makes it a no brainer to just get a local pre-paid plan when travelling. Roaming is gone across Europe etc. That cash cow is mostly dead except for the older declining population

I suspect Cdn telcos will also be dented by Starlink which is approved for Canada. Makes most sense in rural areas so not a complete disruption


----------



## Eder

No need to get sim to roam...just get TMobile...

Roaming with *T-Mobile* Magenta, *T-Mobile* ONE, and Simple Choice plans give you unlimited 2G data and texting in more than 210 *countries* and destinations at no extra charge, while voice calls are $0.25/minute.

The thing is there is infinite ways to monetize connectivity , the main thing is to have the network. A few more years people will laugh they wasted so much time with click bait on Facebook.


----------

