# Cameco and Uranium



## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

I purchased 200 Cameco at $29.65

It dropped below $28 into the high $27 range today. I am thinking of possibly adding another 200 shares under $28 to average down. 

What's everyone's thoughts? I expect the next quarter will show some lost profits due to Japan, however, it should make it back to $35/share eventually. 

I know some other people bought in after the quakes in Japan. What do you guys think about Cameco as a company and the whole uranium
/ Japan ordeal?


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

I was just thinking the exact same thing. I don't understand why it is still dropping and just see it as a buying opportunity now. I may add to my position today or this week. CCO has good profit margins, low debt, trading at a discount to its historical P/E and the richest resources of uranium in a growing market. Also, there is a growing difference between the spot price of uranium and the corresponding companies that benefit from it. I am no expert by any means and have only started following this over the last few weeks, but I like what I'm seeing.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

lots of opinions on Uranium here ;-)

http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=3013&page=9

At first I wasn't too fond on investing in uranium but the more I read about it the more I realize that there isn't any viable alternative in the next little while, especially one that would meet the needs of China and India, there are also opinions that China may be going on uranium shopping spree given the weakness in prices right now and will try to purchase number of companies.

The charts now look pretty weak after the initial rebound, if I decide to buy it will probably be the etf.


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

Homerhomer said:


> lots of opinions on Uranium here ;-)
> 
> http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=3013&page=9
> 
> ...



Exactly


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

It's dropping on technicals. Like I mentioned in the other thread, this is a 5 year horizon investment. There won't be any good news until after China's nuclear plants come online. I am a firm believer that technicals preceed major news releases since analysts and media are hired by hedge funds to sway public opinions. 

That said, short term it'll bounce between the 50% fib retracement level which was the low reached after the nuke event (CCJ, not CCO) and the price the friday before nuke event. Earnings might bring it back up a bit as it is pre nuke event data and government sanctions in EU and other countries will bring it back down again. 

Don't fret the small movements if you are investing in this and buy at the 50% retrace level as well as putting a stop loss 5% below that (because I, and anyone else, could be wrong). Or... use your own risk management scheme and sleep soundly. The current price still has the Chinese Nuke plants priced in. If the Chinese ever announced a stop in those reactors, expect the price to drop back to $17 and that is your maximum loss level.

If you are trading, well, put a trailing stop loss all the time like I do. This thing is range bound for a while.


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

I thought that was a very thoughtful post.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Lavalin+optimistic+about+nuclear+power/4597487/story.html

Thats positive news,

But it doesnt change my $400 loss on Cameco 

As hypo mentioned in another thread, I am more of a trader and less of a long term buyer. I thought Cameco might have had a $1 bounce or so back up.

I want to sell it because I bought it on margin, but I also know it has potential. Looks like this paycheque might have to be thrown into my stock account to keep margin interest down if I want to hold it.

ACK. 

*CCO.TO 200 29.65$ 27.73$ -388.95$ -6.554% 5,546.00$ *

All part of the learning experience, friends.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Kae,

Might want to review how you use margin in your trades if it is not working for you.

Currently, I only use margin in my trades the 3rd time I add into the position on the way up. I do this because at the point I add my 3rd position, the movement so far has been confirming my own analysis and I already have a profit.

Others use margin to double down on dips and it works for them. You seem to buy with full amount + margin on the first round.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Causalien said:


> Kae,
> 
> Might want to review how you use margin in your trades if it is not working for you.


Yes. I need to chill on the margin.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

If you are a trader then cut your loss and move on. You should have had a stop. If you want to invest and trade then allocate your portfolio accordingly so that you average down and hold only in the investing portion. Cut your losses early in the trading portion. Cut out your emotions and wishiwashiness, have your entry and exit strategies for all outcomes and stick to your plan.

You're worrying too much over one small loss. What will you feel like during a broad market downturn? I suggest you read about investing/trading psychology.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

KaeJS said:


> http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Lavalin+optimistic+about+nuclear+power/4597487/story.html
> 
> Thats positive news,
> 
> ...


As per today I have loss on CCO about $450 (down about 9%, bought it $30.53), also bought the same time URA (up about 6%).
I buy for long term, thinking to keep it, as imho it should go up at some point, don't see any real alternative to nuke. 
Also was thinking to buy some more to average down.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

And the bad news gets worse and worse

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Earlier in the year I sold UUU and bought again last month when it dipped -30% [can never resist such decreases on good stocks]. At the same time, I also bought PDN.

Despite the decrease, I did not buy Cameco at the time as I did not want to tie a larger capital when it had potential to go lower with the unresolved nuclear problem in Japan & preferring to buy higher number of shares with the above instead, but should it get to $25/26, I will buy a position today.

KaeJS, yes, *please chill on the margin,* I hate to see you lose money like this.  

The stock is currently down 1.30% on the NYSE in pre-market hours.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Homerhomer said:


> And the bad news gets worse and worse
> 
> http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=


While we have witnessed the incredible composure & resilience of the Japanese people, I can't imagine what they must be feeling, it's just too much. 

Rex Murphy described them best.
http://www.cbc.ca/thenational/indep.../2011/03/17/thenational-rexmurphy-110317.html


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

If any country in the world can recover from this disaster stronger, it will be the Japanese.

After the US dropped two nukes on two of their populous cities, they recovered. This, even though tragic, is something they know how to recover from. I'd rank the WW2 nuke event as a lvl 10 nuclear event if this is a level 7.


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

The Japanese economy was in shambles even before this disaster. As bad as it sounds, they might never recover since companies will do their business elsewhere


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Attaching levels is easy from far out, the reality for poeple going through it and possibly suffering the effects is terryfying, in eastern Europe many children have been born deformed after Chernobyl and the problems are often attributed to radiation.

Not for the faint of heart, have a look if you can stomach it.

http://inmotion.magnumphotos.com/essay/chernobyl


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

homer i for one appreciate your reminders about consequences of nuclear accidents.

nothing is more horrifying or ignorant than to hear the pro-nuke faction rushing forward to boast, as they are doing these days, that nobody-has-died-yet-from-radiation-at-fukushima.

turning now to uranium stocks, i would believe that the downside risk is circumscribed because the world's existing reactors must go on purchasing new supplies of fuel.

what we haven't even begun to see, what will take many years to come, perhaps a decade or more, are the geopolitical debates over building additional reactors.

i think folks who argue post-fukushima that the world has no choice except to build more reactors are thinking extremely superficially. I for one believe we have no way of knowing how these mega-debates & national arguments are going to shape up. Certainly we have no way of predicting their final outcomes. We don't even yet know who the political leaders will be who will play the crucial roles in leading these debates.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

I agree. the political [email protected] to come will be painful. We are only at the media blackout stage.

If the current price can persist past Friday, I am doing a bullish short term trade of CCJ with some of my option money that will be freed up. I don't plan on using margins on this yet.


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

If the worsening of the Japanese situation affects decisions in places like China and India to retreat from their growing positions in nuclear energy, CCO will take a huge hit, of course. I bought the stock on the gamble that the Japanese situation would not get much worse. Down 10% since I bought, but I still stand behind the reasoning of when I bought into it. Normally I would be adding to my position today, given the stock is down on the bad news and demand for the product is still there, however, I am starting to wonder how long term nuclear energy will be affected by the worsening situation.


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

Banalanal said:


> China and India to retreat from their growing positions in nuclear energy


I dont see anyway this can happen. We are talking about;

1) the two most populous places on earth, 
2) with the fastest growing populations, 
3) neither of which has significant fossil fuel deposits, 
4) and both in the middle of their own industrial revolution.

Not only that China is not a democracy so does not have to be political with its people. 

They will talk, but I cant see any other option for these two countries.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

China has been gobbling up oil and other resources like there is no tomorrow in order to meet their needs & will continue to do so just like AAPL has been gobbling up 60% of Global Touch Screens [and hence responsible for delaying the PlayBook release].  

I think I heard it on the Lang & O'Leary show last night, that China in particular, will stock up on uranium, especially that is so cheap!


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Banalanal said:


> . Down 10% since I bought, but I still stand behind the reasoning of when I bought into it. Normally I would be adding to my position today, given the stock is down on the bad news and demand for the product is still there, however, I am starting to wonder how long term nuclear energy will be affected by the worsening situation.


Same here, down 10% , just sold it. Still keep URA


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

gibor said:


> Same here, down 10% , just sold it. Still keep URA


Why the heck would you sell now?


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## Banalanal (Mar 28, 2011)

Yeah I think nuclear is pretty inevitable. Most likely I will add to my position tomorrow and still view it as a long term play.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

For long term - yes, but this long term can be very long.
Possible I will buy back CCO if it's goind below $26


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

gibor said:


> For long term - yes, but this long term can be very long.
> Possible I will buy back CCO if it's goind below $26


In that case, you could have averaged down. 

Unless you bought on margin, not sure why you sold, was it because you reached the -10%?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> In that case, you could have averaged down.
> 
> because you reached the -10%?


yes

I just was thinking, for example (with whole numbers):

I bought 150 shares for $30 = $4500
I sold 150 shares for $27 = $4050 (loss $450)

than if I buy for $26 amount 4050 , it's 156 shares.

Now if in future stock coming back to $27 and was just keeping it , i'm still in loss $450,
In 2nd case , I'd have 156 * 27 = $4200 (so loss will be $300 from original $4500.

And if stock reaches again $30, and was just keeping it - I'm flat,
In 2nd case - I gain (156 * 30 = $4680 ) $180


Am i wrong?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Well, we just do things differently; I know the standard advice is to cut one's losses and get out at -10% [or less], but that is not my approach. 

If it had been me, and of course assuming I had time on my side, ie: that I did not need the money for a long time & that I had additional funds, I would have either kept them, or averaged down because i) you would reach your buying price sooner, ii) when you would reach your selling price, you would have more shares. 

150 x $30 = $4,500 [1st time]
100 x $27 = $2,700 [2nd time]

Average price: $28.80

This approach has worked well for me, even with MFC shares, however, had I not averaged down, I would now be -40% on that stock, instead, I'm just above my purchase price and a whole lot of shares, meaning that I could now sell, whereas if I had not averaged down, I could not. 

I invested close to the amount you did, but on shares of each, UUU & PDN. Would have purchased Cameco today, but it did not reach my price of $26.50, perhaps tomorrow.

Oh, Harper is on, have to watch.


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## LBCfan (Jan 13, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> I think I heard it on the Lang & O'Leary show last night, that China in particular, will stock up on uranium, especially that is so cheap!


I haven't seen anything to suggest that the current price of U is down, only the price of shares in U companies. Am I missing something?


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

LBCfan said:


> I haven't seen anything to suggest that the current price of U is down, only the price of shares in U companies. Am I missing something?


I was wondering this also.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> Well, we just do things differently; I know the standard advice is to cut one's losses and get out at -10% [or less], but that is not my approach.
> 
> If it had been me, and of course assuming I had time on my side, ie: that I did not need the money for a long time & that I had additional funds, I would have either kept them, or averaged down because i) you would reach your buying price sooner, ii) when you would reach your selling price, you would have more shares.
> 
> ...


I understand what are you talking about. But first of all I don't have available more to add to position, 2nd - there is histeria now about nike, so I think it will go down more... as for CCO - below $26... yeas, may be I'm wrong

(P.S> Oh-oh phone call...research for whom I'll be voting... sure , for harper, I don't want to loss all my savings  )

but this is my feelings... on other hand I keep all my oil/energy (include fu$#@ PBN) as I think oil will go back up earlir than U. and still think that may be better now to average up CPG or DAY (or even fu$%^&) PBN.

So, I think to invest back into CCO if it goes below 26 (see my math  ), or maybe DML (it's even more down) or maybe URA.

P.S. Maybe I'm wrong, I just started really invest in 2011, before I had only mutual funds, PALL and PPLT. (Israeli bubble in middle 90s - doesn't count  )
Would really appreciate if you can give me some tips.

P.P.S just checked , CCJ is 0.7% in after trading in NY


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> KaeJS, yes, *please chill on the margin,* I hate to see you lose money like this.


Just transferred some $ from my Tier 1 into Questrade to reduce my margin.

Will repay Tier 1 Principal+$100 on Friday. 

May sell some securities off when things get better to reduce more margin.

Will hold Cameco. I am in it for the long haul.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

LBCfan said:


> I haven't seen anything to suggest that the current price of U is down, only the price of shares in U companies. Am I missing something?


Sorry, I did not express it correctly, they meant that the Chinese would want to gobble our companies taking advantage of the current situation & lower share price.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

gibor said:


> So, I think to invest back into CCO if it goes below 26 (see my math  ), or maybe DML (it's even more down) or maybe URA.


I understood your calculation; you are planning on reinvesting your decreased capital of $4,050 & buy at $26.

This is fine too, however, in the averaging down scenario, your profit would be higher, ie: $1.60 x 250 shares = $400 vs the $180 you came up with in situation b.

Did you watch the debate? 

*KaeJS* - hope it works out for you; I'll buy also, but it did not reach my buying price today.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> I Did you watch the debate?


No, waste of time...I decided long time ago that voting only for C. 

and I know very good who is Mr. Ignatieffffffffff


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> I understood your calculation; you are planning on reinvesting your decreased capital of $4,050 & buy at $26.
> 
> This is fine too, however, in the averaging down scenario, your profit would be higher, ie: $1.60 x 250 shares = $400 vs the $180 you came up with in situation b.
> 
> .


Sorry, I didn't understand how you got $400.
In my calc (30 - 28.8 average price) * 250 shares = $300 vs $180

yes, it's more in $, but in % it's exactly the same.

and another point, in order to invest more , I'd need to sell something, or to make new contribution into RRSP


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

You didn't get it because you were up too late. 

I used the price given *in your example,* not mine.

150x $30 = $4,500
100x $26 = $2,600

$7,100: 250 = *$28.40*

If you would sell at $30, your profit would be = $1.60 per share [$30 - $28.40 = $1.60]

$1.60 x 250 shares = $400 

Like I said, everyone has their own method of doing things. Bottom line is to make profit and not lose money! About having to sell something, point well taken, but sometimes you can sell 'dead money' & make it work elsewhere, ie: JNJ, lo? Yes, you get the dividends while you wait, but 1.5 years of going nowhere but down?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> You didn't get it because you were up too late.
> 
> I used the price given *in your example,* not mine.
> 
> ...



How do you know I hold JNJ  ...sctuallly my plan was to keep JNJ together with ABT until retirement


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I'm a mind reader. 

I went off-topic, sorry, but actually, I was talking about myself; it's a solid stock & long term for me as well, but obviously I bought it at the *wrong* time as I could have put that substantial capital to work elsewhere the last 1.5 years since I purchased it [not as easy to average down all the time as with MFC], but after holding it all this time, I just have to forget that capital for now.

*Back to uranium:* I see all related stocks have bounced back a little today & no different than last month following the Japanese tragedy. That is what I meant by saying that market timing isn't impossible with respect to some stocks.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> I'm a mind reader.
> 
> I went off-topic, sorry, but actually, I was talking about myself; it's a solid stock & long term for me as well, but obviously I bought it at the *wrong* time as I could have put that substantial capital to work elsewhere the last 1.5 years since I purchased it [not as easy to average down all the time as with MFC], but after holding it all this time, I just have to forget that capital for now..


It's not a off-topic  The more nuke issues around the world , more health companies like ABT and JNJ should make profits 

ctially i was thinking to buy more JNJ as I have only 50 hares tht not enough to DRIP even 1 share.



> *Back to uranium:* I see all related stocks have bounced back a little today & no different than last month following the Japanese tragedy. That is what I meant by saying that market timing isn't impossible with respect to some stocks.


Again, i think you need to have a very good intuation.... I thought all uranium will go down for couple of days more, but was wrong ....again ....


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Elevated radiation levels detected in Canada

but our government doesn't want to tell us which artificial isotope was found, or how much a 'minuscule' amount is, exactly


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

J&J is quite possibly the worst stock in the Dow. I say this as a former shareholder who actually made a very small profit on it, which was hard to do given that chart. If you think about all the recalls, mismanagement, and now allegations of bribery.. it's best to move that dead money into something else ASAP. It's only being held up by its former reputation, which is being tarnished by the minute by "all-star" CEO William Weldon. Goldman Sachs is buying puts.

Apologize for going off topic, but I wouldn't be anywhere near uranium right now.


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## Potato (Apr 3, 2009)

ddkay said:


> but our government doesn't want to tell us which artificial isotope was found, or how much a 'minuscule' amount is, exactly



http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hc-ps/ed-ud/respond/nuclea/_data/monitor-surveil-eng.php

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hc-ps/ed-ud/respond/nuclea/_data/surveil-eng.php

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hc-ps/ed-ud/respond/nuclea/_data/treaty-traite-eng.php


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

LBCfan said:


> I haven't seen anything to suggest that the current price of U is down, only the price of shares in U companies. Am I missing something?


*LBCfan & clovis:* I guess the guys at the Lang & O'Leary show had been right after all when they said exactly what is mentioned in this article earlier in the week & what I had meant when I said in my post that the Chinese would gobble up the companies.

"That’s one reason takeover speculation is increasing after Japan’s nuclear crisis made uranium miners 31 percent cheaper relative to book value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/14/uranium-companies-in-play-as-net-assets-exceed-shares/


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