# Noise



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

One thing we don't really discuss here is the noise we hear in the world and on the markets. I think this discussion could be key for people wanting to own INDIVIDUAL stocks or the WHOLE market. You have the fundamentals down you think your done but that noise that you don't pay attention to comes up in the future or the now and destroys or beats down your investments. 

So what is noise and should we pay any attention to it? Or should we keep our ears tuned but at the same time watch the road in front of us or just watch the road.

Lets look at Iran and The Straight of Hormuz. For traders this noise could do wonders for one investing in oil both looking at a price spike and then a shorting opportunity. For investors this is noise that one should consider but I don't think should be worried about longer term unless the noise becomes intolerable and everyone in the world needs to worry. At that point of intolerance one needs to look for opportunities and bargains.

A couple of years ago the noise against the US dollar was intolerable and everyone including most on the forum saw the dollar going towards zero the Euro to heaven. I read one analyst who said the dollar goes through a cycle every 7 years or something and that something will change and everyone will slowly and then quickly pile into the dollar. Sure enough like day follows night it is now the Euro going to hell and the dollar going to heaven. This is still early on so the dollar will go up and down but the long term trend should continue up for now.

Gold is finished and most on the forum I am sure believe this to be true as it gets a hard spanking right up to this minute. The noise against gold and gold miners is becoming intolerable as they continue to sell off. Of course this sell off will probably continue if the market crashes with the problems in Europe and so on. But to me this is the noise that one should be buying into because we haven't seen the crazy buying in juniors and senior miners. These miners never went up at all during the latest gold spike so there is no frenzy here. In fact I read some where that the juniors are still at the level of when gold was $400 or something like that. Also with all the money printing and debt now and to come are these fiat currencies really worth what they are.

On individual stocks one needs to look no further then RIM and all the noise it has seen. If one didn't pay attention then I am sure the noise has destroyed you. Today however we are starting to hear noise of what its patents are worth and so on so one may want to look at this stock to see if this noise can produce a value buying opportunity or not. Also of course there is the cash position and if you can hear noise of better management to come.

Canadian banks right now are hearing the noise of counter party risk out of Europe and that Canadians have to much debt. This is a concern and it is being priced in for sure and I think there is more to come. However at the same time this is a buying opportunity to add some Canadian banks but don't go all in but instead add as the price drops. Canadian insurers are also going through hell but if rates don't rise they will continue to have problems. Look to noise of better economies and growth to finally have rates rising to help these companies.

Lots to discuss here that can potentially help everyone on this forum to invest more wisely.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> One thing we don't really discuss here is the noise we hear in the world and on the markets. I think this discussion could be key for people wanting to own INDIVIDUAL stocks or the WHOLE market. You have the fundamentals down you think your done but that noise that you don't pay attention to comes up in the future or the now and destroys or beats down your investments.
> 
> So what is noise and should we pay any attention to it? Or should we keep our ears tuned but at the same time watch the road in front of us or just watch the road.
> 
> ...


good post.
noise
today we r trading on noise and mkts are up.
in my view the numbers that i see in front of me are bearish and short covering is taking place.
as per individual stocks i agree with u.
globally i do not.
i am not touching banks on this BS rally.
volume has been for the past few months ludicrous for me to stick my neck out without volume.
those are exactly a reflection of short covering , volume in the floor.
italy is another insolvent country selling bonds at 7% and did not sell them all , that is not noise.
gold is not finished but due for a correction let alone silver
i think one should watch the vix next year in the beggining of the year when large investors come back to the game.
i nsee a sharp increase on the vix , we basically bottomed on it


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I agree with you on the banks newbie but at the same time I would consider having a small position that one could add to because I do have some confidence in the Canadian banks. Still if the crap really hits full force the Canadian banks could go as low as single digits as the whole world comes apart and again having some money still aside could do nicely for adding if they ever get there.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I agree with you on the banks newbie but at the same time I would consider having a small position that one could add to because I do have some confidence in the Canadian banks. Still if the crap really hits full force the Canadian banks could go as low as single digits as the whole world comes apart and again having some money still aside could do nicely for adding if they ever get there.


if and that is if i have any position on banks it will be canadian banks , but next year only.
**** will hit the fan hard with europe's insolvency and canadian banks aint immune to it .
i am averaging down my faz today and tomorrow we have a vacuum , and i expect a rally on vacuum also.
the make believe money managers will dress the window very nicely.
i consider my faz purchases like put options on banks.
as for oil . i will never short it .
i am not an expert on mkts but i am not naive either to buy something on low volume and absolutely bearish news that the media turns into good news.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Just to play devils advocate on the VIX doesn't it often settle for long stretches at low levels especially at this time of the year. Or is this VIX level a low noise level that we are ignoring or should be listening to. The VIX is also a good measure on the level of noise out there.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Oil can be shorted if we get a ridiculous war rally like we saw in the first gulf war.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Just to play devils advocate on the VIX doesn't it often settle for long stretches at low levels especially at this time of the year. Or is this VIX level a low noise level that we are ignoring or should be listening to. The VIX is also a good measure on the level of noise out there.


the vix is trading lower because the large players are not on their desks, and trust me we r damn near the bottom
and just to clarify one thing ,as u probably know already , as the mkt hits a top the vix hits a bottom .and the top is damn near


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Oil can be shorted if we get a ridiculous war rally like we saw in the first gulf war.


if they close the straight of ormuz oil will fly very high.
i shorted oil once to never again.
id rather buy on weakness, and it aint weak at all
p.s 1260/1265 is my mark for the spx 500 and i am pretty much dead on .
from here it may go slightly higher , but it will tank hard.
and i ask anyone on the board , what good news are drivers for next year?
i have zero, zilch
i will assure u one more thing 
if the spx 500 does not take out the oct/27 high it will go down to 1200 in a heartbeat in the first quarter u betcha
all the bulls will be trapped in there 
1076 will be retested sooner than later


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

The miners dilute themselves to oblivion and most of their productions are already sold via futures contract. It is obvious that they don't move with gold. So using the as awarding indicator to determine whether or not gold has finished running up is inappropriate.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

This morning...

Italy's bond auction had weak demand, the ECB had to step in and buy, even then they only pushed 10Y yield down to 6.98%, and BTPs continued rising on their own back above 7% afterwards.

Hungary's government bond auction failed, meeting less than half demand required, they sold HUF15B but wanted to sell HUF33B.

While gold and EUR/USD was crashing overnight and making new lows, ES hardly budged and stayed over support at 1246.

US bonds (ZN, ZB) are up, ES is up, HG is up, CL is down, DX is down, VIX is down. Someone is lying, or correlations are diverging and everybody is own their own nowdays. If you can figure the noise out today you're commendable. I'm out of ideas, but I have an inkling feeling this is the type of stuff that happens before a crash or a major recovery...


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> This morning...
> 
> Italy's bond auction had weak demand, the ECB had to step in and buy, even then they only pushed 10Y yield down to 6.98%, and BTPs continued rising on their own back above 7% afterwards.
> 
> ...


that summarizes all 
end of year short covering 
europe in the brink of a colapse and unemployment numbers in the US are going higher.
are u ready for this wild ride down?
i am 
nothing to figure out short covering only
hheheheh recovery of what brother ? lol i know ur joking
i have 5k shares of faz at an average of 37.7 atm , disclosure.
200o shares of hvu at 17 bux 
does it look like i am bulish?

ha i forgot we probably will have the last half hour rally to bring the spx 500 up another couple points


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> This morning...
> 
> Italy's bond auction had weak demand, the ECB had to step in and buy, even then they only pushed 10Y yield down to 6.98%, and BTPs continued rising on their own back above 7% afterwards.
> 
> ...


as large trader desks come back from holydays i think we will have a bloodbath in the mkts.
large mining producers are just going down 
i am surprised that banks are actually getting this short covering today.
nevertheless there is short covering.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

David Prince, president of Harbinger Capital, is quoted in today's Toronto Star as saying "in 43 years working in the financial industry, I have seen plenty of bumps and hiccups in the stock market" but even he was surprised by the amount of volatility in 2011. Major market indices saw wild swings of hundreds of points in either direction, not just day to day, but sometimes hour to hour. "I have never seen markets so skittish. The constant fear that people are going to be blindsided is at the heart of it." Prince believes that , "when even the pros are taking a bath, what hope do the rest of us have"? "Unlike thirty years ago, the bombardment of information is now constant", Prince said.
The skittishness has been growing more rapidly since the financial crisis sparked by the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers. "It has also meant that what was once a wise investment strategy is no longer so sound. 
"The days of buy and hold are gone and I don't think they're coming back and this kind of volatility isn't going anywhere soon."

Stock swings that reached twice the five-decade average still left the S&P 500 Index with the smallest price change in 41 years so far in 2011. That leaves 2011 as one of the most volatile years on record.

That's one heck of a lot of noise for no net gain!!!

Strap yourself in and get ready for 2012 and enjoy the ride!!

Or, then again, you could just invest in boring GIC's and leave the wild and wooly stock market ride for other less risk averse folks.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Gold is finished and most on the forum I am sure believe this to be true as it gets a hard spanking right up to this minute. The noise against gold and gold miners is becoming intolerable as they continue to sell off. Of course this sell off will probably continue if the market crashes with the problems in Europe and so on. But to me this is the noise that one should be buying into because we haven't seen the crazy buying in juniors and senior miners. These miners never went up at all during the latest gold spike so there is no frenzy here. In fact I read some where that the juniors are still at the level of when gold was $400 or something like that. Also with all the money printing and debt now and to come are these fiat currencies really worth what they are.


dog, i admit that i have changed my mind on gold several times and still don't have a strong opinion though lately i am very bearish (i own zero gold or any metals)... as far as the producers go, i think the reason we haven't seen the gain in producer equities that we expect is simply because nobody trusts that there is a real floor under the price of gold (i think it costs about $500 an ounce to extract, so add a reasonable mark-up to that and i guess you have a floor of like $800 or something)

gold is fear based asset and fear can change to hope and greed and back in a heartbeat so if gold drops to 1200 the producers aren't looking as good as they are at 1700

gold is a traditional inflation asset but more and more i think equities will function fairly well as inflation assets and maybe gold isn't necessary and one can just avoid the hassle altogether

if one planned to own them for 25 years, it's hard to make a case for investing 10K in gold versus buying 10K of saying exxon or johnson and johnson


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

fatcat said:


> dog, i admit that i have changed my mind on gold several times and still don't have a strong opinion though lately i am very bearish (i own zero gold or any metals)... as far as the producers go, i think the reason we haven't seen the gain in producer equities that we expect is simply because nobody trusts that there is a real floor under the price of gold (i think it costs about $500 an ounce to extract, so add a reasonable mark-up to that and i guess you have a floor of like $800 or something)
> 
> gold is fear based asset and fear can change to hope and greed and back in a heartbeat so if gold drops to 1200 the producers aren't looking as good as they are at 1700
> 
> ...


and i am also short silver
there is absolutely nothing that i am long


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Causalien I know junior gold producers sell their future production so that is true but I thought the big producers were not actively selling very much or far into the future. Gold however is the best noise investment in the world because there is a ton of noise imbedded in the price of gold and there always has been.

Newbie you are obviously very bearish on everything and so are many others myself included. Could we be the future victims of the deafening noise coming from the world news and bear camps. The level of bearishness is so great right now and the noise all points to disaster to the point a big rally is close at hand. Probably a QE type of event is close at hand. I believe we will probably start to hear more and more noise from people seeing QE as something that must happen and then the Fed will act. I remember there was a lot of noise about the need for QE2 to happen and then the Fed did so. I also believe the end was near at that time if the Fed did not act.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

newbie said:


> that summarizes all
> end of year short covering
> europe in the brink of a colapse and unemployment numbers in the US are going higher.
> are u ready for this wild ride down?
> ...


damn, so you're saying you're 200k short right now? nice... i'm planning to short some if we continue to go up from here, if we somehow make it to 1330 on spx it'll be a nice juicy short


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Causalien I know junior gold producers sell their future production so that is true but I thought the big producers were not actively selling very much or far into the future. Gold however is the best noise investment in the world because there is a ton of noise imbedded in the price of gold and there always has been.
> 
> Newbie you are obviously very bearish on everything and so are many others myself included. Could we be the future victims of the deafening noise coming from the world news and bear camps. The level of bearishness is so great right now and the noise all points to disaster to the point a big rally is close at hand. Probably a QE type of event is close at hand. I believe we will probably start to hear more and more noise from people seeing QE as something that must happen and then the Fed will act. I remember there was a lot of noise about the need for QE2 to happen and then the Fed did so. I also believe the end was near at that time if the Fed did not act.


dog
as i expected the last half hour/45 min last droppings of "noise" came in to lift the mkts to where i know they want it to end the year.
if QE3 does become a reality from Ben bernanke and he actually announces it , than we will be victims.
i highly doubt he will use this weapon atm, nevertheless in the first quarter.
europe and the U.S. injected massive liquidity in the past few weeks to grease the mkts and look at todays italian bond sales , zilch , nada 7% was again on the table, plus what we know about other countries.
nobody wants to stick their neck out on insolvent countries, let alone buy american banks tha actually are exposing themselves further in european debt.
some say tha BAC is full of europe debt but there is no transparency , therefore no one knows.
gold is a wild card here since i believe that gold goes higher if there is inflation ahead and the only possible inflation than can be created is through QE3.
its hard to be bearish but when you see past the smoke and mirrors .
forget about companies valuations , i know that some are trading wayyyy below their valuations.
i like pcx , fcx and many other miners but aint touching them yet.
did u notice copper today it moved up 2.3 cents that tells me something.
anyway
did not add to my faz and tza and will wait for tomorrow boring trading day to possibly add before years end


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

blin10 said:


> damn, so you're saying you're 200k short right now? nice... i'm planning to short some if we continue to go up from here, if we somehow make it to 1330 on spx it'll be a nice juicy short


yes i am and will probably have to add more to my shorts.
well hvu i am up but not selling.
my exit point is 25/27 bux on it
i said in another post that we have 1 to 2 weeks to take out october high and i am starting to think that this is very unlikely but he who knows


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i think the answer whether one is feeling bullish or bearish is to be as prepared as you can for both outcomes

to go all-in on either is foolish

hedge your bets and keep cash on hand

how about 30/30/40 equities/bonds/cash ?

who knows ?

just don't bet everything on what you think because you don't ever have enough information

protecting capital is the prime directive


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

fatcat said:


> i think the answer whether one is feeling bullish or bearish is to be as prepared as you can for both outcomes
> 
> to go all-in on either is foolish
> 
> ...


i am not all in
still have gun powder to use but what we r seeing aint real trading.
like i said , i would hedge if i believed this mkt has legs .
it does not .
u think i dont get tempted to buy great companies at the lows we r seeing?
i do but not just yet.
thks for the advice anyway


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

We have been swinging between bull trap and bear trap for the last few days so I think its a dangerous time to be long or short anything... This doesn't happen too often. I'll decide what to do in the New Year, but I would only want to go short under SPX 1250, this level has proven very difficult to break. I would short 1250 to 1220, then cover. Wait a few days, if we go lower with conviction, it won't be straight down, the gaps for 1200, 1160 and 1074 should be tested, so cover again at these levels, even a bit higher to give some padding.

If the market keeps ignoring the news stream like October, a retest of the yearly high at 1370 is possible, the technical setup is there and very bullish.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> We have been swinging between bull trap and bear trap for the last few days so I think its a dangerous time to be long or short anything... This doesn't happen too often. I'll decide what to do in the New Year, but I would only want to go short under SPX 1250, this level has proven very difficult to break. I would short 1250 to 1220, then cover. Wait a few days, if we go lower with conviction, it won't be straight down, the gaps for 1200, 1160 and 1074 should be tested, so cover again at these levels, even a bit higher to give some padding.
> 
> If the market keeps ignoring the news stream like October, a retest of the yearly high at 1370 is possible, the technical setup is there and very bullish.


would u kindly tell me how are the large desks going to ignore the news from europe?
or the U.S. for that matter with unemployment today way below expectations?
i dont disagree and i will be in a lot of pain if large trader desks justignore the essential.
the uptrend channel imo stops at 1310 if it gets there
today is an abnormal day.
year end short covering rally.
there was not one piece of good news out there unless u think that pending home sales was good news.
 PMI came positive (my mistake) i mentioned negative before.
treasuries were up today also right?
if memory serves me right the 1076 low was accompannied by the 1 trillion dollars bailout that the european merkozy created and turned into dust.
the mkts actually acknowledged the "good news"
it rallied all the way to 1285, another short covering rally.
to me that was a straight line. the biggest almost uninterrupted rally i have ever seen after a catastrophic slump after operation twist announcement
where is the money? have u seen it?

forgot to mention one thing ddkay , where is volume since the low of 1076, no volume on the mkts which also suggests to me that this is purely short covering as usual.
in 09, after the tragic slump and lehmann brothers u saw huge volume.
we r not there yet right?


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

Agree there is lots of "noise" around these days. Maybe even here? Anyway sticking to my plan of holding good quality dividend paying stock with lots of cash to cover several years of expenses if necessary. Not sure any other plan makes much sense for a retiree.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

They can ignore everything with more liquidity injections or rate cuts, but the life span of these band-aid fixes are getting smaller. I'm not even convinced a $100 trillion QE3 will do anything meaningful to in the long term, they're just adding more water in a tub with no drain plug.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> They can ignore everything with more liquidity injections or rate cuts, but the life span of these band-aid fixes are getting smaller. I'm not even convinced a $100 trillion QE3 will do anything meaningful to in the long term, they're just adding more water in a tub with no drain plug.


good point 
me neither, unless the fed will give free money like japan, and i mean free money , period.
i just heard a good expression" the emperor is naked"
i think u know who the emperor is right.
but going back to QE2 in june's end . 
then in july /august the mkt topped.
it is a keynesian mkt .
without injected liquidity it wont move.
large corps are strapped in cash just waiting for the next slump .
there is no real hiring.
wages y/y are going down.
and just wait after the holydays all the workers hired for the holydays will be gone.
i dunno , 08 is too fresh in my mind.
how can i go long ?


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> We have been swinging between bull trap and bear trap for the last few days so I think its a dangerous time to be long or short anything... This doesn't happen too often. I'll decide what to do in the New Year, but I would only want to go short under SPX 1250, this level has proven very difficult to break. I would short 1250 to 1220, then cover. Wait a few days, if we go lower with conviction, it won't be straight down, the gaps for 1200, 1160 and 1074 should be tested, so cover again at these levels, even a bit higher to give some padding.
> 
> If the market keeps ignoring the news stream like October, a retest of the yearly high at 1370 is possible, the technical setup is there and very bullish.


remember that i aint short the spx 500.
i mention it for illustration purposes.
i am short the russel 1000 financial index which cant even have a breather let alone try to take out the highs of the year.
my weekly chart is actually just on the brink of a downward trend according to oscillators


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

newbie said:


> would u kindly tell me how are the large desks going to ignore the news from europe?
> or the U.S. for that matter with unemployment today way below expectations?
> i dont disagree and i will be in a lot of pain if large trader desks justignore the essential.
> the uptrend channel imo stops at 1310 if it gets there
> ...


what do you mean by why it may go up? markets never follow logic and can easily go up... europe been in trouble for so long now, yet markets are not back to 08-09 level... I know you short and trying to make yourself feel better by repeating how everything is in a bad shape, but markets all know that and yet they're close to 52week high... when usa/euro economies slow down, they don't stop, people still buying ****, companies still working, life goes on... people were saying in july 2010 how we will retest 09 lows, and what happens? market goes bullshit for the next whole year... people also been saying how house prices will go down hard for the past 6+years, and what happens? houses doubled in price


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

blin10 said:


> what do you mean by why it may go up? markets never follow logic and can easily go up... europe been in trouble for so long now, yet markets are not back to 08-09 level... I know you short and trying to make yourself feel better by repeating how everything is in a bad shape, but markets all know that and yet they're close to 52week high... when usa/euro economies slow down, they don't stop, people still buying ****, companies still working, life goes on... people were saying in july 2010 how we will retest 09 lows, and what happens? market goes bullshit for the next whole year... people also been saying how house prices will go down hard for the past 6+years, and what happens? houses doubled in price


i wish i was trying to make myself feel better
george soros 2 years ago said about the gold bubble.
in the first quarter of this year he sold 99% of his gold holdings.
check SEC fillings, it is there.
Gartman just recently evaded the mkt.
its like that, ur in a room full of many other bulls , and at one point one looks at each other and says , wait a minute what am i doing here
do u see the room full of bears ?
like u said the mkts are irrational and went up.
i am comfortable being a contrarian here just like Soros was in the begginning of the year.
happy New year
the mkts are not ilogic , that is what u think.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

newbie said:


> i wish i was trying to make myself feel better
> george soros 2 years ago said about the gold bubble.
> in the first quarter of this year he sold 99% of his gold holdings.
> check SEC fillings, it is there.
> ...


if markets were logic and did what you thought they would do, you would not be here but on a 10mill yacht in the middle of Caribbean... i think markets will drop down as well, but I been in this for a while and I know what they can do... and I don't get what you're saying about gold, if he sold his gold in the beginning of this year then he lost a ton of money since gold went up


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Fork in the road for China, this week printed a long shadow candle. This just means sellers dominated for the first part of the week, driving prices lower, then tepid buying came in the latter half. The week prior printed a failed doji (was supposed to go higher).

China has been selling off for 3 months straight, US/EU policy moves and CB rate cuts did nothing for their market. Their housing bubble is obviously not very contained. Are they going to bounce here or head lower? Higher suggests an ~8% measured move into February, lower means shedding another ~17%. Ouch...


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> Fork in the road for China, this week printed a long shadow candle. This just means sellers dominated for the first part of the week, driving prices lower, then tepid buying came in the latter half. The week prior printed a failed doji (was supposed to go higher).
> 
> China has been selling off for 3 months straight, US/EU policy moves and CB rate cuts did nothing for their market. Their housing bubble is obviously not very contained. Are they going to bounce here or head lower? Higher suggests an ~8% measured move into February, lower means shedding another ~17%. Ouch...


09 lows?
so it seems unless we think china will overheat.
anyway i think that chinese stocks are very cheap on their valuations.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

blin10 said:


> if markets were logic and did what you thought they would do, you would not be here but on a 10mill yacht in the middle of Caribbean... i think markets will drop down as well, but I been in this for a while and I know what they can do... and I don't get what you're saying about gold, if he sold his gold in the beginning of this year then he lost a ton of money since gold went up



Soros has been in the bulltrend from the beggining and ur telling me he lost money, are u serious.
it went to 1900 on speculation pure and simple.
now u got me lost.
we r all here cuz we cant afford a yacht and that is why the discussion and talk, nothing else.
i aint rich man and never claimed to be either.
i am just the next joe like u trying to make a buck.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

zylon said:


> Yabutt ... what did he buy, that is the question.
> 
> A double bad in the short term;
> long term he'll make out like a bandit.
> ...


of course he will make another ton of money.
just like buffet buying ibm and bac .
i dont go aginst these guys although it seems that buffet is losing some in GS and GE apprently , but his money will be here when he is gone lol


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> Fork in the road for China, this week printed a long shadow candle. This just means sellers dominated for the first part of the week, driving prices lower, then tepid buying came in the latter half. The week prior printed a failed doji (was supposed to go higher).
> 
> China has been selling off for 3 months straight, US/EU policy moves and CB rate cuts did nothing for their market. Their housing bubble is obviously not very contained. Are they going to bounce here or head lower? Higher suggests an ~8% measured move into February, lower means shedding another ~17%. Ouch...


well all kiddin aside on the daily u have a hammer and an inverted hammer right after, possible strong bulish reversal
that little tiny tiny candle u called a doji on the weekly is also a hammer if i am not wrong 
stockastics has not shown reversal yet though on the daily
on the weekly it is just about to show a reversal but it can take some time of course


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

There has also been noise of recession in europe and slowing and then who knows in North America. This is just noise but every recession has had a low level of noise about a year before we discover that we have a recession.

Another stock always on the news and making a lot of noise is Apple and I wonder how long this stock can stay on top.

I am also hearing a lot of noise about deflation and not to long ago most were on the inflation, hyper inflation and long bonds are dead camp. Everyone now is piling into income instruments and so on, so I wonder how far this will go.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Newbie you just said what i was thinking about the hammer at the end of the chart. I saw these same hammers upside down at the end of silvers run to $50 probably the easiest shorting opportunity of the year.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> There has also been noise of recession in europe and slowing and then who knows in North America. This is just noise but every recession has had a low level of noise about a year before we discover that we have a recession.
> 
> Another stock always on the news and making a lot of noise is Apple and I wonder how long this stock can stay on top.
> 
> I am also hearing a lot of noise about deflation and not to long ago most were on the inflation, hyper inflation and long bonds are dead camp. Everyone now is piling into income instruments and so on, so I wonder how far this will go.


dog
all those camps of defensive stocks , etc.. are overcrowded right now, for sure .
that is where "smart money " parks it right?
biggest gainer of the year is........macdonnalds .
would i take profits if i bought at 40/50 bux ?
damn sure i would.
philip morris close to 52 week high and the list goes on.
are u going against the grain like me or not?
i am short for the meanwhile on financials which showed and will show the highest volatility this year.
as for noise there is noise everywhere man


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Newbie you just said what i was thinking about the hammer at the end of the chart. I saw these same hammers upside down at the end of silvers run to $50 probably the easiest shorting opportunity of the year.


ha silver
had a guy arguing with me when i went short silver at 50 bux in another board.
an options trader.
i went short on HZD at that time and held tight and made a killing.
i told him that that was his last bull breath and 34 bux is next stop.
bam down she went as CME tightened margin requirements.
on the daily , as far as i can remember the 50 bux mark had 3 attempts that failed and was wayyyyyyy overbought.
i remember the demise candle being a somewhat shooting star followoed by a major bearish engulfing
nothing else to say.
at 34 bux i said it will not go past 46 on a retracement and it went to 44 bux.
never shorted it again .
coulda shoulda woulda but did not.
that is all i remember for that.

i still think that silver is bound to go to 24 bux area nevertheless


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am not really sure what going against the grain really means these days. During big run ups like silver going against the grain is easy but going against the income game is not so easy. During the bull run from 2003 - 2007 dividend stocks, junk bonds and income oriented investments went on for a long time. 

Gold has been going up for 10 years and one be wrong going against the grain there. Being long Nat Gas hasn't been a good idea for years even though it is always oversold. There is more to going against the grain in that you need to be sure of the longer term picture direction and then trade the extreme overbought or oversold conditions or buy and hold that long term picture.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Same thing happened to me when somebody said they were buying silver at my wife work and she told me about it. I told her to tell him I am shorting it and he thought I was crazy but sure enough he had his lunch handed to him.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I am not really sure what going against the grain really means these days. During big run ups like silver going against the grain is easy but going against the income game is not so easy. During the bull run from 2003 - 2007 dividend stocks, junk bonds and income oriented investments went on for a long time.
> 
> Gold has been going up for 10 years and one be wrong going against the grain there. Being long Nat Gas hasn't been a good idea for years even though it is always oversold. There is more to going against the grain in that you need to be sure of the longer term picture direction and then trade the extreme overbought or oversold conditions or buy and hold that long term picture.


dog
if i ever buy a divy stock i will hold for the divys.
at this time in my life i am a really risky trader.
natural gas is a tough mkt , since it is regional and oversupplied.
there u can short it at any rally and this year is the worst year for natural gas according to traders specialized in that area.
i see reward in shorting financials even though a lot of them are trading below valuations, just because of europe.
if it was not for europe the american economy would muddle along , but europe is not looking good at all.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Same thing happened to me when somebody said they were buying silver at my wife work and she told me about it. I told her to tell him I am shorting it and he thought I was crazy but sure enough he had his lunch handed to him.


good for ya.
anything can only go so high and anything can only go so low.
i am not shorting a financial stock.
i am shorting the index itself.
when the party is over , i will make sure i have left the room.
but i could be very wrong and Ben announces QE3 on Jan/2 .
who knows right?
than i am selling , at loss.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

blin10 said:


> what do you mean by why it may go up? markets never follow logic and can easily go up... europe been in trouble for so long now, yet markets are not back to 08-09 level... I know you short and trying to make yourself feel better by repeating how everything is in a bad shape, but markets all know that and yet they're close to 52week high... when usa/euro economies slow down, they don't stop, people still buying ****, companies still working, life goes on... people were saying in july 2010 how we will retest 09 lows, and what happens? market goes bullshit for the next whole year... people also been saying how house prices will go down hard for the past 6+years, and what happens? houses doubled in price


just for the note
u should try and convince kenny polcary as to not be bearish


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Newbie, Ddkay, Fatcat, blin10 and others why is it that no one but you guys are interested in the noise topic. I have tried many times on the forum to get a response on noise but have never got any replies so i made it a topic.

The reason for this is because anytime anybody talks negative or technical the noise word often comes up so what is it all about. I am thinking now that it is some kind of excuse forum members and others in the so called know come up with to explain everything but not ever to answer for it.

Conclusion is they have no idea what they are doing except for what they think is right or what they heard the establishment say that makes it right. Robots is another conclusion and they do not have a mind of their own.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Newbie, Ddkay, Fatcat, blin10 and others why is it that no one but you guys are interested in the noise topic. I have tried many times on the forum to get a response on noise but have never got any replies so i made it a topic.
> 
> The reason for this is because anytime anybody talks negative or technical the noise word often comes up so what is it all about. I am thinking now that it is some kind of excuse forum members and others in the so called know come up with to explain everything but not ever to answer for it.
> 
> Conclusion is they have no idea what they are doing except for what they think is right or what they heard the establishment say that makes it right. Robots is another conclusion and they do not have a mind of their own.


was browsing around again and saw ur post dog.
imo it is a good topic.
i wont be talking about it during days that i trade but i like it.
the mkts run with noise.
no noise no mkt , no technicals no mkt no different opinions no mkt.
everything and anything runs the mkt.
at one point we traded on fundamentals, in another euphoria and now is the year end , window dressing and so on.
if one wants to share their idea i am sure they will.
if it is only us so be it bro.
as soon as i posted my direxion trading i was kinda pushed around and i still trade it.
learned a little about TZA/TNA and small caps since other traders use them.
i do not use options due to liquidity and u can lose ur shirt if u r wrong .
i call those etfs the new world of options for the small investor like me even though they decay in time.
they r short term hold instruments only.in and out .
maybe the more popular members are used with their own divys or couch potato options , bonds treasuries etc...
there are long term investors here with 10 /15 years time horizon.
my horizon is at best 1 month.
i dont believe in buy and hold anymore.
in the past 10 years or so the mkts went nowhere but from point a back to point a, so i decided to start trading.
keep it up .
i just dunno how to upload my graphs on the site .
maybe ddkay can guide me.
i think it was him that posted some nice charts


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Let's define noise. I don't understand what "noise" is. Is noise something you don't agree with? Is noise something that in retrospect proved you wrong? Noise is just something that didn't live up to its expectations?

When you expose yourself to a lot of information, you run across things you don't agree with. Will you let that "noise" interfere with decisions?

If I say I'm objective, I'm probably subjective and I am not conscious of it. I'll say again, there's never a single outcome scenario. Flip a coin, everything has a 50% chance in the short term.

IMO, fundamentals aren't noise, psychology isn't noise, Jim Cramer isn't noise, TA isn't noise. It's all working together and part of the big picture. In the end P/L only comes down to how you interpret the big picture. The market couldn't exist if we were all right.

I believe if you're informed, patient and strategic anyone can beat the market. Obviously that is something I would say being someone that is beating the market. My biggest realized loss this year was on silver, I didn't know what I was buying then, or how to use it, I was just drinking the hyperinflation koolaid from zerohedge and other PM bugs. The year before, I almost doubled my account buying stuff I couldn't explain to you the reason was going up. Obviously, QE2. Now I question everything more critically.

Yesterday, most people were quite sure today was going to end in red. The exact opposite happened. So can you deduce, that 7% Italy yields were priced in? When there's seller exhaustion bull opportunities start popping up and vice versa. The last 4 sessions have gone mostly sideways, so I'm neutral. Next week there should be better confirmation.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

You can upload images to http://imgur.com and when you reply to a message you should see this button:


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> Let's define noise. I don't understand what "noise" is. Is noise something you don't agree with? Is noise something that in retrospect proved you wrong?
> 
> When you expose yourself to a lot of information, you run across things you don't agree with. Will you let that "noise" interfere with decisions?
> 
> ...


great explanation about noise and i agree with everything u said.
just one thing i disagree. i never expected the mkt to be lower today and neither tomorrow.
what did i say early in the morning ?
mkts will rally specially at last droppings by days end.
i flipped some pennies from 2:30 till close in pcx silver etc...
next week the games begin and i still see a pull through providing U.S. numbers come inline or above expectations and europe does not blow up.
or iran goes haywire.
these are all the UNKNOWNS
today as every year end the mkt IGNORED THE NOISE.
tomorrow it will muddle through and even if it is temporarily red ,at days end i am 85% sure that it will end green.
history most likely will repeat itself


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> You can upload images to http://imgur.com and when you reply to a message you should see this button:


i will try
thks
do u have to be subscribed to stockcharts to link it up?


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Nah, I usually print screen the annotation page, paste it into my photo editor, crop it and save.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> Nah, I usually print screen the annotation page, paste it into my photo editor, crop it and save.


jeez i am terrible with that kind of thing .
i will try later anyway.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Newbie the only reason I made my comments is because everytime you discuss things with people they often explain away everything as noise. So to me noise must be very important if brokers, forum members, mutual fund reps and so on have to use the word noise to explain why the market does poorly. To me this is avoiding any kind of pain and crossing your fingers that all will be well with no explanation. 

Ddkay thanks for your comments and yes noise can mean just about anything but should be paid some attention but of course there is to much info out there to pay attention to all of it.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

This is where engineering filter design comes in really handy. A band pass filter applied on the daily motion of a stock to filter out noise .... oh wait, that's what SMA, DMA, EMA, RSI, Stochtastic etc. (etc used to sound intelligent) is doing.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I actually don't want to eliminate or get rid of noise because I like listening to it. But it is true TA is a good way to filter noise.

Then again TA instead can be used by silent killers to set you up and nail you. People like the plunge protection team love TA because they can use it to maximize the impact of their actions. For example they let the shorts pile up and then squeeze them to get a rally going. Or they can look at obvious set ups and turn them the other way.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I actually don't want to eliminate or get rid of noise because I like listening to it. But it is true TA is a good way to filter noise.
> 
> Then again TA instead can be used by silent killers to set you up and nail you. People like the plunge protection team love TA because they can use it to maximize the impact of their actions. For example they let the shorts pile up and then squeeze them to get a rally going. Or they can look at obvious set ups and turn them the other way.


the whole idea about short squeeze in the end of the day is who has deeper pockets.
i am too new in trading to affirm that this is a time in history where stocks are being heavily shorted.
but by looking at shorts accumulation in stocks atm , i can tell u that these shorts have deep pockets .
a short squeeze can happen with"good news"
its been like that for what 6 months now.
the mkts rally shorts cover and so on and so forth.
why do i say that?
low volume in the past few months .
one cannot prove to me different that volume does not matter.
to me a stock that goes up steadily on volume tells me that to short it will take the small investor like me big cojones.
TA is just one aspect , maybe i forgot to mention that i trade on sentiment also and i am sure that one has to agree that sentiment right now aint too positive


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Volume is very important and tops and bottoms can be seen just by the volume.

Being a small investor does let you hide in the big moneys fur so to speak because the people looking to kick *** like to have a lot of short money available for their pursuits. 

On shorting something that is going up you have to be very certain or you will fall into the everything stays irrational longer then I can stay solvent camp.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Volume is very important and tops and bottoms can be seen just by the volume.
> 
> Being a small investor does let you hide in the big moneys fur so to speak because the people looking to kick *** like to have a lot of short money available for their pursuits.
> 
> On shorting something that is going up you have to be very certain or you will fall into the everything stays irrational longer then I can stay solvent camp.


u are absolutely right.
and that is why i am a short term trader with so many risks out there beyond our knowledge since we are the nobodys on the financial mkts.
the large investors control the mkts and for sure we r not them .
aim small miss small.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Volume is very important and tops and bottoms can be seen just by the volume.
> 
> Being a small investor does let you hide in the big moneys fur so to speak because the people looking to kick *** like to have a lot of short money available for their pursuits.
> 
> On shorting something that is going up you have to be very certain or you will fall into the everything stays irrational longer then I can stay solvent camp.


quite a bit of "noise " today
they sure r baking in all the good news .
just for the note at one point i saw a downdraft in all idexes intraday.
friday will be the best news of the week and 1300 on the spx aint far.
and then what ?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Newbie you mentioned before of being short the market. I hope all is well for you on this front. I have been short the market before and I don't do it anymore because it is just to difficult to time it right and hold on even when I am right about the direction the market goes.

I would prefer to play something long like buying US dollars or something like that if I feel the risk off trade was coming. One could also hedge by being short to protect long positions but I don't like the costs and the idea of doing that at least for me.

On the direction of the S&P I believe this is a strong time of the year for the market so I would step just aside if I was bearish on it here.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

dogcom said:


> Newbie you mentioned before of being short the market. I hope all is well for you on this front. I have been short the market before and I don't do it anymore because it is just to difficult to time it right and hold on even when I am right about the direction the market goes.
> 
> I would prefer to play something long like buying US dollars or something like that if I feel the risk off trade was coming. One could also hedge by being short to protect long positions but I don't like the costs and the idea of doing that at least for me.
> 
> On the direction of the S&P I believe this is a strong time of the year for the market so I would step just aside if I was bearish on it here.


even though markets look bullish, I'd be very careful here, stocks fall faster then they go up, I unloaded some today...... but yea being bearish is not a good place either, we can easily test 1330 on spx


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Newbie you mentioned before of being short the market. I hope all is well for you on this front. I have been short the market before and I don't do it anymore because it is just to difficult to time it right and hold on even when I am right about the direction the market goes.
> 
> I would prefer to play something long like buying US dollars or something like that if I feel the risk off trade was coming. One could also hedge by being short to protect long positions but I don't like the costs and the idea of doing that at least for me.
> 
> On the direction of the S&P I believe this is a strong time of the year for the market so I would step just aside if I was bearish on it here.


lets see how the bond auctions go in europe in the next few days.
i know that the ECB is buying heavily and after injecting 600 billion dollars last year , the bond selling should be good.
if germany cant sell this time all of their bonds then......
i can cover my shorts., still not worried here.
i dont trade currencies , but thks for the advice.
till i see real volume i will stay short equities.
long oil though


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

blin10 said:


> even though markets look bullish, I'd be very careful here, stocks fall faster then they go up, I unloaded some today...... but yea being bearish is not a good place either, we can easily test 1330 on spx


no problemo if we test 1330/1340.
u can call that ur top.
then bulls are trapped.
if it was not for europe the sky would be the limit even though U.S. is overly indebted


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Newbie you mentioned before of being short the market. I hope all is well for you on this front. I have been short the market before and I don't do it anymore because it is just to difficult to time it right and hold on even when I am right about the direction the market goes.
> 
> I would prefer to play something long like buying US dollars or something like that if I feel the risk off trade was coming. One could also hedge by being short to protect long positions but I don't like the costs and the idea of doing that at least for me.
> 
> On the direction of the S&P I believe this is a strong time of the year for the market so I would step just aside if I was bearish on it here.


do not forget that gaps on stocks get filled.
that aint a myth
today we gapped up big time

just to add up on this, the move on the small cap index was minimal IMO .
but was trading oil today so ddid not pay attn to TZA.
u guys can look at the chart.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

newbie said:


> *do not forget that gaps on stocks get filled.*
> that aint a myth
> today we gapped up big time
> 
> ...


alot of gaps don't get filled, it's not 100% that gaps fill....


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

dogcom said:


> Newbie, Ddkay, Fatcat, blin10 and others why is it that no one but you guys are interested in the noise topic. I have tried many times on the forum to get a response on noise but have never got any replies so i made it a topic.
> 
> The reason for this is because anytime anybody talks negative or technical the noise word often comes up so what is it all about. I am thinking now that it is some kind of excuse forum members and others in the so called know come up with to explain everything but not ever to answer for it.
> 
> Conclusion is they have no idea what they are doing except for what they think is right or what they heard the establishment say that makes it right. Robots is another conclusion and they do not have a mind of their own.


most people don't know TA and don't follow markets, they just buy and hope for the best... so they don't need to know about noise, it's psychological


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

I've been thinking about this whole TA debate and I came to the conclusion that knowing TA doesn't allow a trader to make more money. Because with each signal, you still have to make a decision and that decision is whether or not to trust or not trust and how much to trust it. With the widespread teaching of TA nowadays, you have to add in a new consideration. Whether or not this is a faked TA move by a big investment house. 

In order to know for sure, you need to know where the money comes from. BUt once people wrote programs to track it, the multi exchange scheme that we have popped up (from demand) and an order is not routed through several different exchanges in a scattered manner (and different small pieces of odd sizes). 

Whatever happens to allow someone to get ahead, will eventually become the norm so that in the end, the ratio is the same, it's math. There's always only 1% of those super riches.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Causalien said:


> I've been thinking about this whole TA debate and I came to the conclusion that knowing TA doesn't allow a trader to make more money. Because with each signal, you still have to make a decision and that decision is whether or not to trust or not trust and how much to trust it. With the widespread teaching of TA nowadays, you have to add in a new consideration. Whether or not this is a faked TA move by a big investment house.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gyu82WG_edM


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

blin10 said:


> alot of gaps don't get filled, it's not 100% that gaps fill....


i obviously dont follow all the stocks in the exchanges.
the ones i follow and they r many ALWAYS filed the gaps.
the few ones i mentioned filled gaps.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

Causalien said:


> I've been thinking about this whole TA debate and I came to the conclusion that knowing TA doesn't allow a trader to make more money. Because with each signal, you still have to make a decision and that decision is whether or not to trust or not trust and how much to trust it. With the widespread teaching of TA nowadays, you have to add in a new consideration. Whether or not this is a faked TA move by a big investment house.
> 
> In order to know for sure, you need to know where the money comes from. BUt once people wrote programs to track it, the multi exchange scheme that we have popped up (from demand) and an order is not routed through several different exchanges in a scattered manner (and different small pieces of odd sizes).
> 
> Whatever happens to allow someone to get ahead, will eventually become the norm so that in the end, the ratio is the same, it's math. There's always only 1% of those super riches.


i will say only one thing to ur affirmation about TA.
Volume, and volume is getting thinnmer and thinner .
i dont care if it is barton bigs Soros Roubini buffet or whoever has the money.
the bulls may just be running out of bullets or may i say they slashed earnings for this quarter to a such low level that it will be damn hard not to beat the street.
example AA.
still holding my bearish positions .
the big tests are yet to come.
like i mentioned on this thread the oct low has to be taken out and it is just about there and on thin volume, thinner than last year.
it will most likely be taken out but from there i still believe u will drift lower.
financials had a very nice run so far dont u think


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> Fork in the road for China, this week printed a long shadow candle. This just means sellers dominated for the first part of the week, driving prices lower, then tepid buying came in the latter half. The week prior printed a failed doji (was supposed to go higher).
> 
> China has been selling off for 3 months straight, US/EU policy moves and CB rate cuts did nothing for their market. Their housing bubble is obviously not very contained. Are they going to bounce here or head lower? Higher suggests an ~8% measured move into February, lower means shedding another ~17%. Ouch...


an example for charting BLIN i called a possible bottom on the weekly chart here when DDkay posted it 
just FYI take a look at the candle it formed after .
now remember that it could be a deadcat bounce but this chart was wayyyyyyyyyyyy oversold.
if mkts conditions do not improve in the long run the trend is still 09 lows.
as you probably know , china is starting to show some signs of deflation.
we r in living in stagflation


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

newbie said:


> an example for charting BLIN i called a possible bottom on the weekly chart here when DDkay posted it
> just FYI take a look at the candle it formed after .
> now remember that it could be a deadcat bounce but this chart was wayyyyyyyyyyyy oversold.
> if mkts conditions do not improve in the long run the trend is still 09 lows.
> ...


you also shorted 200k worth of stuff and it went other way....based on my calculations you're close to 40-50g's in a hole so far... ya china is showing signs of deflation and markets are going up... sure they can go back down (and I think they will ) but bottom line is you made a bad move, so no disrespect, but I wouldn't listen you talking about candle formation (btw candle patterns are useless)


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

blin10 said:


> you also shorted 200k worth of stuff and it went other way....based on my calculations you're close to 40-50g's in a hole so far... ya china is showing signs of deflation and markets are going up... sure they can go back down (and I think they will ) but bottom line is you made a bad move, so no disrespect, but I wouldn't listen you talking about candle formation (btw candle patterns are useless)


no offense taken at all.
still short here and not averaging down cuz i do not think i need to , but could do so if required.
the quiet bull mkt u r seeing is soon to receive a jolt to wake it up to the real fundamentals behind the smoke and mirrors.
yes i am down on a 3x leveraged ETF.
i am used to this ball game , which apparently u r not
if ur not ready to be behind the eight ball ur not ready to play the shorts game.
by the way candles are priceless


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Newbie you certainly don't hide from the mistakes you make which makes you are very mature individual and I do respect the honesty. Most people will only tell you about the money they made and gamblers do the same until they get completely thrashed and then they tell the truth.

I do not have the guts you do to short the market because the time window is so short to make money. I do think that the candle or hammer thing is useful when the end of a big move is near but not the only thing one would look at as I know you are well aware. Once again the end of the last silver parabolic move in the spring was forecast by such hammers so they can often be the icing on the cake.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Newbie you certainly don't hide from the mistakes you make which makes you are very mature individual and I do respect the honesty. Most people will only tell you about the money they made and gamblers do the same until they get completely thrashed and then they tell the truth.
> 
> I do not have the guts you do to short the market because the time window is so short to make money. I do think that the candle or hammer thing is useful when the end of a big move is near but not the only thing one would look at as I know you are well aware. Once again the end of the last silver parabolic move in the spring was forecast by such hammers so they can often be the icing on the cake.


dog
in all honesty , my candlestick analysis is for short term daily /weekly basis.
i fully agree with you on the assertion and analysis of a trend's end candlestick pattern.
as traders say , the trend is ur friend till it ends.
the weekly chart gives me a full broadview of the long term chart formation and , when one associates the short term charts, as i do ,coupled with trading volume, mkt sentiment and other factors one can TRY and time it .
my very original post last year and anyone on this board can look is that , i was very sure that i entered the trade early, based on the negative New year's close.
therefore i am letting the bulls ride and watch the environment in which this train is going.
once the mkt is overbought u run out of the last buyer.
silver parabolic rally , i timed very well( maybe i got lucky?).
this time i did not time it perfectly so i am down a lot, and yet in a shorters mind and thinking , timing is almost never perfect.
someone mentioned somewhere that the mkts may IGNORE some bearish events that are happening as we speak but the bulls have the uphand.
i am not going to dissect and assert my opinion as to what bearish events are happening behind the scenes.
i am not short only , i was long oil a couple of times.
i am very bearish on silver trading at 30 bux without signioficant break through that mark and may enter a large sum on the short side.
it can only bump its head on 30 bux so many times right?
anyway, what i do not understand is individuals making comments which IMO are clueless as to what mkts can do to you.
my loss can turn into a large win but if i enterd a trade with 20% of my capital on my first tranche i think i will survive the derailment.


on the same note here , copper is trying to breeak 3.6 area.
check the chart as to how many times it tried before ?

good luck in ur trades


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I looks to me that copper is on the verge of breaking a wedge to the upside but of course it is bumping the resistance as you mentioned. It is slightly overbought but still has room to move to the upside if it wants to go there.

On silver I have been long over the last few weeks and have my hand near the sell trigger. We are in a good seasonal period for silver so I will probably wait for a failed test to the upside and then bail out.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I looks to me that copper is on the verge of breaking a wedge to the upside but of course it is bumping the resistance as you mentioned. It is slightly overbought but still has room to move to the upside if it wants to go there.
> 
> On silver I have been long over the last few weeks and have my hand near the sell trigger. We are in a good seasonal period for silver so I will probably wait for a failed test to the upside and then bail out.


i would not stay long over the weekend.
the downgrade rumours came earlier then i thought.
i expected possible announcements next month.
copper is hitting strong resistance on 3.6 area and commoditties will take a hit on downgrades imo.
just my .0000000000002c


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

The overall market has dropped today but it is recovering from the middle of the day so the bad news isn't killing it as it would in the off season like August or September. I have a feeling that things will muddle along a little longer before a more serious break near the end of January. Then we will make a low in Feb and then one last leg up before the death and destruction returns. Of course I have my hand near the sell trigger like I said but I want my winners to run while I can because that is the only way to get ahead in the market.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> The overall market has dropped today but it is recovering from the middle of the day so the bad news isn't killing it as it would in the off season like August or September. I have a feeling that things will muddle along a little longer before a more serious break near the end of January. Then we will make a low in Feb and then one last leg up before the death and destruction returns. Of course I have my hand near the sell trigger like I said but I want my winners to run while I can because that is the only way to get ahead in the market.


dog 
we have to see the real effects of the downgrades once they are really announced.
the volume on futures is ludicrous.
but u possibly are right .
earnings started like crap. and why do i say that .
all estimates will be close cuz they slashed them to the basement.
lets see how GS earnings come up.
a round of destruction is coming IMO.
FWIW i am a buyer of oil again on weakness, not just yet though.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I think these EZ downgrades are noise. Each country has to be notified 2 weeks before it happens. Then "senior government officials" leak them ahead of the ratings agencies closer to the date it actually happens. Everyone has known for at least a month now they would happen before the next EU summit in January. IMO no surprises here, S&P's updates are being announced after close: Italy, Spain, Portugal down 2 notches and France, Austria down 1.

This is different than the US downgrade which "nobody" expected.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> I think these EZ downgrades are noise. Each country has to be notified 2 weeks before it happens. Then "senior government officials" leak them ahead of the ratings agencies closer to the date it actually happens. Everyone has known for at least a month now they would happen before the next EU summit in January. IMO no surprises here, S&P's updates are being announced after close: Italy, Spain, Portugal down 2 notches and France, Austria down 1.
> 
> This is different than the US downgrade which "nobody" expected.


ddkay
i care to disagree here.
i did not expect the U.S to be downgraded that early last year.
the downgrades coming are not priced in.
u must know that the U.S. just hit 100% debt to gdp ratio on jan/9th
what do u think of that?
the bond markets will tell us where r we going when the real announcements are done.
i still maintain the bulls target on the spx 500 that i mentioned before from a technical perspective, but the mkts may differ on technicals .
remeber that volume is still very thin and the moves either up or down can be disguised.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

ddkay said:


> I think these EZ downgrades are noise. Each country has to be notified 2 weeks before it happens. Then "senior government officials" leak them ahead of the ratings agencies closer to the date it actually happens. Everyone has known for at least a month now they would happen before the next EU summit in January. IMO no surprises here, S&P's updates are being announced after close: Italy, Spain, Portugal down 2 notches and France, Austria down 1.
> 
> This is different than the US downgrade which "nobody" expected.


italy from A to BBB+, that is quite a bit.
france and austria saved from the double notch downgrade
spain also downgraded obviously AA- to A
portugal cut to junk
germany had an upgrade to stable from negative.
greeks stop talking to creditors
with Germany being the locomotive of europe.
next one is Moodys to come up with their ballgame by hopefully month's end to reinforce the situation.
main problem i see here is as to how higher Italy and Spain bonds will increase.
italy did not have a good day today.
more banks with earnings next week.
well i guess news are really out now.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

The market didn't tank into the end of the day so ddkay is probably right about this news being mostly known in the market. We are at a point now where we know everyone has way to much debt and the traders just want to make money any way they can. So if they knew the US was going to sink into the ocean at the end of this year they would still be happy to go long a rally at this time of the year to make a buck.

This is the one thing that is lost on most forum members and the general public is that this time it really is just a game. In a few years or so when the debt gets washed away then we can return to the normal buy and hold and do your homework market.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> The market didn't tank into the end of the day so ddkay is probably right about this news being mostly known in the market. We are at a point now where we know everyone has way to much debt and the traders just want to make money any way they can. So if they knew the US was going to sink into the ocean at the end of this year they would still be happy to go long a rally at this time of the year to make a buck.
> 
> This is the one thing that is lost on most forum members and the general public is that this time it really is just a game. In a few years or so when the debt gets washed away then we can return to the normal buy and hold and do your homework market.


one thing is to have debt.
another is being able to pay the debt.
that is how the bond mkts work.
if investors dont want to buy risky bonds from countries like italy and spain they wont.
remember that the ECB has been the largest buyer of their bonds.
this is new territory and we shall see starting next week.
if mkts take the news well i will cover my shorts, and buy my second tranche on all short positions.
let me ask u one thing.
how in heaven in a few years the debt will get washed away?
it will just evaporate in thin air?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am not sure how but when things crash everywhere then it goes away by defaults or printing it away and everyone loses. When you go bankrupt are you not done with it to some degree and then have you to put your life back together. 

Or countries slash spending raise taxes and turn the tide the other way and then gain momentum as they carry forward and it takes years. In this case the debt stays but slowly drops and becomes more manageable.


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## newbie (Dec 12, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I am not sure how but when things crash everywhere then it goes away by defaults or printing it away and everyone loses. When you go bankrupt are you not done with it to some degree and then have you to put your life back together.
> 
> Or countries slash spending raise taxes and turn the tide the other way and then gain momentum as they carry forward and it takes years. In this case the debt stays but slowly drops and becomes more manageable.


dog
i could write a wholr book as to what happens.
look at argentina's past when they went bankrupt , .
at that time their peso was pegged to the dollar.
just google and u will find how it works.
after their bankruptcy , their economy grew at a very fast pace.
on the note , the U.S. cannot go bankrupt , because u and i will not be able to have a conversation. it will be an all out war.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

They can by printing away their debt. So they don't go bankrupt but it is almost the same thing to the people who hold their paper.


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