# Bombardier (BBD.B)



## freshjiive

Read an article about this stock the other day,, after reviewing it and seeing its down quite a bit I thought maybe a good buy? But i'm also a complete newb to the market. What does everyone else think?


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## freshjiive

Really no comments?


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## KaeJS

I wouldn't personally buy it.

However, if you bought a few thousand shares, it could be a profitable trade or a profitable long term hold.

I'd say you would need to buy at least 2000 shares for it to be worthwhile.

And then if things don't go your way, you might be out the money.


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## freshjiive

KaeJS said:


> I wouldn't personally buy it.
> 
> However, if you bought a few thousand shares, it could be a profitable trade or a profitable long term hold.
> 
> I'd say you would need to buy at least 2000 shares for it to be worthwhile.
> 
> And then if things don't go your way, you might be out the money.


Why so many shares for it to be profitable
I bought 260 :|


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## KaeJS

260 is fine if you are talking longer-term.

I meant 2000 for trading purposes, to get in quickly and get out quickly.

The problem with 260 shares is that if it bounces between $3.50 and $3.90 for a while, and you bought in at $3.65, there's not much profit to be made and your money could be better used elsewhere, especially since the dividend is around only 2.6% right now. There are a lot of companies paying upwards of 4% right now with stable business models and steady cash flow.

From 3.65 to 3.90, you'd make a profit of $65.00 before commissions on 260 shares.

From $3.65 to $3.70, you'd make a profit of $100.00 before commissions on 2000 shares.

See what I mean? It's a lot easier to have the stock go up 0.05/share and cash out for almost 1.5x the profit, as opposed to having the stock go up 5x as much, for only 65% of the profit you could have made with the 2000 shares.

Obviously, losses are magnified with 2000 shares, as well.


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## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> Obviously, losses are magnified with 2000 shares, as well.


Precisely, so if you're not comfortable trading & don't know the stock well, don't even consider such numbers. 

Great company IMO, but aerospace/transportation is a very tough business for obvious reasons & also BBD.B has very tough competition from other giants in the industry, so not a stock to buy/hold in this market, unless you're patient.


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## freshjiive

Thanks for the tips


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## humble_pie

it has been several years now since i ever held any interest in bbd but the usual politics probably still prevail.

aerospace division is still & always has been problematic. Brazil's embraer got way out in front with their successful rj (regional jet) models nearly a decade ago & they've kept leading market share.

both countries - canada & brazil - subsidize their respective aerospace corporations heavily, in flagrant violation of trade rules, so both countries snipe continuously away at each other through gatt tribunals, diplomacy & just about any & every venue they can think of.

what this has meant for bombardier is that it's been riding on the sturdy earnings back of its land transport division - mostly railcars - for many years. I haven't kept up on the news but from afar it seems they keep on winning contracts, work on cost economies, have & have held a global footprint for many years now.

exotic tidbit: it's bombardier railcars that make up the new train that runs from china to lhasa, tibet, just as canada's engineering firm snc lavalin was one of the principal engineers for the tibetan chemin de fer. Apparently this train has to pass over vast areas of bottomless swampy muskeg. There was no way to reach bedrock in order to build supports for the train tracks. The solution was to permanently freeze the muskeg. Evidently a network of freezing pipes was installed all through it.

this can give rise to all sorts of entertaining & not-so-entertaining stories, if one stops to think about it. Tibetan nationalists in particular oppose the new railway because they understand very well that it will bring a vast new immigration of ethnic chinese han people into the isolated mountain kingdom, and this will in time overwhelm & gradually destroy the native tibetan culture ... 

back to bbd, there is a certain floor under the common stock, in a sense, because ottawa will never allow this star in the national aerospace crown to fail. Otherwise what one is really investing in is a manufacturer of rail cars & locomotives, including urban transit system modules.


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## Toronto.gal

"Bombardier says C-Series service entry on track."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/01/us-bombardier-cseries-idUSTRE7B01TS20111201


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## freshjiive

Toronto.gal said:


> "Bombardier says C-Series service entry on track."
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/01/us-bombardier-cseries-idUSTRE7B01TS20111201


It jumped today by 5%
Im content for now lol


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## Toronto.gal

freshjiive said:


> Im content for now lol


I guess today you must be wildly upbeat!


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## freshjiive

Toronto.gal said:


> I guess today you must be wildly upbeat!


haha you know it! it doesn't take much


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## freshjiive

Been holding this for a while now and it's finally paying off. Bought at 3.88
not sure to sell or to hold on and see what happens


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## Dibs

BBD sells 5 planes worth about $309 million with options for 5 additional aircraft.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/bombardier-lands-new-c-series-order/article2308393/


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## gibor365

*Bbd.b*

Last week bought BBD.B for $3.95. I think BBD.B under $4 is a good price. This company strongly supported by government and planes/trains will be always needed. Now Toronto discussing what to build : subway or light train. imho BBD can get nice work order from Toronto and it's good for the stock.
I'm thinking now to keep BBD.B for a long term or sell it on way up.....
What is your opinion on BBD.D future? Anyone holds is for long term?


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## Toronto.gal

I hold for long-term, but I also trade it as you know.

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/9505-Bombardier-(BBD-B)


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## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> I hold for long-term, but I also trade it as you know.
> 
> http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/9505-Bombardier-(BBD-B)


I was searching by BBD.B, so didn't find this thread :love-struck:


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## PMREdmonton

This stock looks tricky to me - good earnings but tons of debt, negative free cash flow, declining book value per share, low margins on sales and heavy competition. I understand there has been limited uptake on their new regional jets and this will hurt them for the next decade if they don't break into this space stronger.

They don't seem to have sold my commercial airplanes yet and they will need this to feed into their growing service and spare parts division which is the growth side of their business.

I'd sit on the sideline until there is more evidence of traction in airplane sales.

I'd also prefer a price more along the lines of 3.50.


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## webber22

BBD.B is a momentum stock that tends to peak during the Paris air show, this year it's June 17-23rd. Definitely not a buy and hold stock as witnessed by any chart - a swing trade stock yes. Once it's on a roll I usually add on to the pile until the momentum is exhausted then sell off.


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## gibor365

Today Benj Gallander gave to BBD.D Top pick....:encouragement: maybe another lift to stock?!
I've heard about Paris Air show .... but this one still 2 months away... maybe I'll just set some stop limit sell to lock small gain and let it ride...


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## Just a Guy

Without the liberals in power, or an election looming, BBD has problems with it's source of cheap cash...not that they are a bad company, but it's a lot easier when people throw money at you to make a profit. The conservative government has cut back on the trough for them...


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## PMREdmonton

It always pays to listen to Benj if you have the stomach for his picks which are sometimes downright ugly.

I still think I'd pass on BBD at this price - I'm all ears at 3.50 though.


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## Cerby

Don't buy it. When the company had everything good going for it and major hype about its new products and the orders being placed and all that crap with the c-series the price went down. As already said the market bombardier specializes in is very crowded. I lost alot of money on this stock. It taught me a valuable lesson though. Just because you read articles saying how a company has enough business to last it another decade and it recently came out with a new product they had been developing for years, doesn't mean the stock price is going to go up. If I had to say a stock was cursed this would be it. Unless you plan on holding for 5 years or longer avoid this stock. I won't be touching this stock again, there's better options. Check out Precision Drilling on the TSE, its my stock of choice right now.


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## Toronto.gal

PMREdmonton said:


> 1. I still think I'd pass on BBD at this price
> 2. I'm all ears at 3.50 though.


1. 'At this price' you say? It was below $4 just a week ago while the 52 week high was $7.25. Further, I would never pass on a stock that is ideal for trading!
2. It was less than $3.50 just this past December & I have the stomach/patience [you need the latter for sure with this stock] to hold long-term the shares I purchased at that low price [better than holding CTW]. :biggrin:

*Gibor:* you should be up around 8% since you purchased a couple of weeks ago?


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## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> *Gibor:* you should be up around 8% since you purchased a couple of weeks ago?


T.gal, i bought at $3.95 , so far it's not too bad :encouragement:
Today "The industrials sector also supported the TSX after WestJet Airlines (TSX:WJA) announced that it has selected Bombardier Inc. (TSX:BBD.B) to supply the propeller aircraft it requires for a new regional service. WestJet will take delivery of up to 45 of the Bombardier Q400 planes over the next six years"... so it's a good news for BBD.B... upcoming air show in France can also lift BBD shares... thinking to sell if it hits 4.50

btw, when do they have next earning report? 5/10/12?


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## Toronto.gal

Book profits chamud!

I have made nice returns trading the stock for the last 2 years [locking the lowest rate last Dec.]. However, if I had just bought and held the last 2 years, I would have been in the red as I bought for $5.87 the 1st time back in March/2010.

With booked profits, buy free shares! And the stock pays a dividend too! [received $106.68 on April 2nd for 4200 shares].


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## dotnet_nerd

Me too. I dumped my 1500 shares this morning @ $4.29 for a small gain.

BBD is ok, but I'm moving on to greener pastures


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## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> btw, when do they have next earning report? 5/10/12?


I think you edited your question after my reply.

May 10th/Aug.9th/Nov.7th. [just go to the event calendar].

http://ir.bombardier.com/en/event-calendar 

*While we wait: some numbers from last quarterly & 2011 fiscal year:*

- Quarterly revenues totalled $4.3 billion, down from $5.6 billion in the previous year.

- For the year ended Dec. 31, Bombardier posted net earnings of $837 million or 47 cents per share, compared to $775 million or 42 cents per share in the previous year.

- Annual revenues rose to $18.3 billion, compared to $17.9 billion for the year prior.

- Bombardier's aerospace division had revenues of $8.6 billion for fiscal 2011, compared to $8.8 billion in 2010, while EBIT totalled $502 million, or 5.8 per cent of revenues, compared to $554 million, or 6.3 per cent.

- Bombardier Aerospace's backlog increased to $22 billion as of Dec. 31, compared with $19.2 billion as of Jan. 31, 2011.

- The transportation division had revenues that totalled $9.8 billion, compared with $9.1 billion last fiscal year. EBITB amounted to $700 million, or 7.2 per cent of revenues, compared to $651 million, or 7.2 per cent, last fiscal year.


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## webber22

This one is called the bomber for a reason. After earnings this morning the stock plunges 4%, then proceeds to rise - now it's up 2%. Picked up some this morning at 3.57, holding on until the middle of June


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## Toronto.gal

The perfect trading stock for some time; was up by way more than 2% today!

*Edit* - webber, you need to check the stock again; 'bomber' as in exploding right now & the most active on the TSX!

http://www.bombardier.com/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d80206ea6


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## webber22

It's on fire !!! Up 6% now ..... :greedy_dollars: 
Market manipulation at it's finest. The only thing that bothers me today is that GS is on the sell side of almost all orders ..... :frown:


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## Toronto.gal

+7.32%; nice same-day recovery, LOL.


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## Dibs

Some good news today, an additional order from NetJets for up to 7.3 billion in sales. 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...illion-dollar-challenger-deal/article4249287/


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## Toronto.gal

Old news; I read that last night. :biggrin:

"Massive Neetjets Order" indeed & not suprisingly, stock is up 7% at 10 a.m.

BBD.B had an order backlog totalling $33 billion as at October 31, 2011, and from the end of 1st quarter 2012, the figure was $23.3 billion:

*"As anticipated, we had lower revenues in the first quarter,” said Pierre Beaudoin, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bombardier Inc. "At Aerospace, the entry into service of the Vision Flight Deck on the Global 5000 and Global 6000 aircraft and the resulting transition, as well as lower deliveries of commercial aircraft, had an impact on our revenues. Nevertheless, we were able to contain costs and maintain our profitability. We had a solid level of new orders in business jets and we're starting to see momentum in commercial aircraft orders which led to an increased backlog of $23.3 billion.”*

The above quarterly information resulted in my addition to my long-term position back in May and on more recent occasions.

*Other recent press releases:*

- Bombardier's Q400 Airliner Awarded Type Approval for Operation in Russia and the CIS
http://www.bombardier.com/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d80216120

- Bombardier to Feature Two High Performance Business Jets at CBAA
http://www.bombardier.com/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d80216122


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## Sampson

This is such an interesting industry because one CAN have a real indication of future earnings. I guess with companies like these, people look beyond the standard 3,5,10 year revenue plans and can look into the far far future.


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## Toronto.gal

It's been a good week for the Aerospace & Transportation arms of BBD.B!

*Bombardier Wins Contract to Supply 260 New Metro Cars for the San Francisco Bay Area*

Bombardier is transforming how people get around every day. Worldwide, more than seven billion trips are taken on Bombardier metro cars every year, from Boston, New York, Montreal, Toronto and Mexico City to London, Paris, Berlin, Delhi and Shanghai. Bombardier’s current North American metro car orders include 706 new cars for Chicago, 420 cars for Toronto, 468 cars for Montreal, and 300 cars for New York.

http://www.bombardier.com/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d80219a7f

http://www.bombardier.com/en/transp...press-releases/details?docID=0901260d80212faa


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## webber22

webber22 said:


> This one is called the bomber for a reason. After earnings this morning the stock plunges 4%, then proceeds to rise - now it's up 2%. Picked up some this morning at 3.57, holding on until the middle of June


A month later it's up 10% (plus dividend) from the buy date to $3.95. With the Paris air show on this weekend together with perhaps another big announcement to add to the other 2 big ones, then this stock should be good for a sell order


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## PMREdmonton

I decided to pick up a few of these.

It is more levered than most of the investments I typically make.

I do like their technology and innovation. I like the valuation of the company. The yield is decent but unspectacular. They seem to have a solid slate of orders to ensure profitability for the next while. They have a good, skilled labour force.

But mostly I really like them because the valuation is so good right now. It appears to be off its bottom and there are catalysts in the air so I'm happy to ride this one for awhile and maybe add some more if it dips to 3.60 or so but I doubt that happens.


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## Dibs

I am still underwater with my BBD.B shares (1500 at $4.69) and I am thinking about what my strategy should be for this stock.

I bought this stock in January 2011 at $5.00 after reading into their C-series project. The stock then jumped up to a high of 7$ to a low of $3.67 in the span of 9 months. I averaged down to $4.69 during this period.

Fundamentally, I like their business, and I think they will be successful in both their airplane and train divisions. I see their stock going above $5 in the long run. 

Technically, the stock is very is volatile. Google finance puts the beta at 1.43. Hence the stock tends to rise and drop faster than the TSX. If we compare BBD.B to the TSX for this year (Link), BBD approached near $5 in February, outpacing the TSX, and then dropped right back with all the stuff in Europe. Right now, it is rising above the index with all the news of orders coming in and the air show that is going on right now. 

As some people in this thread have mentioned, the stock is very tradable. I am thinking of whether or not I should try and execute a trading strategy. At the moment, things are looking rosy for BBD, but that can change fast. Downward pressures include a lack of sales for their planes at the show, delays in the C-Series development, and significant sales made by their competitors. There is also the overall world economic outlook which, when it turns sour again, will most likely drive the price down. 

So if I am looking to trade around 1000 shares of this stock, what would be a good strategy? I am thinking of setting up a trailing stop of around 3-5% at this moment to sell for at least $4.10. I would buy back when the price is near $3.80. Does this make sense? Should I be using a trailing stop or set a price at which I will sell? Do you think the price will drop below $4 when the markets turn downward again? Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated.


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## Toronto.gal

To answer your last question, I never thought the stock would drop below $4, but it did & might again! However, by having a mixed strategy [buying/trading] for the last couple of years, I was able to benefit short & long-term.

Had you booked some profits when the stock went to $7 [from $5], as well as traded it when it dropped to $3.50, or -50% just this past Dec., you might have recovered some of your unrealized losses by now as the stock has indeed been very volatile, hence tradable!

My approach has been to trade in tranches as this addressed the directional scenarios, ie: I would buy 2 or more blocks at different prices/would then sell one block/ then used the returned capital [+ profits/or use this somewhere else] to cover my next purchase when the price went down, etc. Given the general market volatility, at any given time, I may have 3 or more tranches of a particular stock on an ongoing basis [of very volatile stocks that I don't feel are falling knives ofc], and this way, I was able to take advantage of most market rallies by selling the profitable block [not necessarily DCA'ing as this strategy works best not for short-term trading necessarily, but for long-term investing]. 

The only time I would sell all blocks at the same time, would be if even after the DCA average, the profit would still be worthwhile. For example, say I had 1500 shares at an ACB of $3.80, then I might sell all today for $4.22 as the profit would be $630 [- comm.]. But if my ACB was above $4, I would just sell the lower tranche. The profit would be slightly less by not selling all, but then you would have another block to sell if shares were to go higher the day after you sold.

However, I would not recommend this approach to anyone who is not comfortable trading.


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## gibor365

I bought BBD.B for $3.95, than it spike to $4.30's, than fell down to 3.60s... Didn't averaged down at 3.60s as didn't have money available and just was scared 
Don't know exactly what I gonna do with it, probably will sell if it goes up to 4.30's , if it goes down - will be just pationately waiting and collecting dividends (yield is not bad , close to 2.5% and better than any GIC)


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## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> 1. Didn't averaged down at 3.60s as didn't have money available and just *was scared *
> 2. if it goes down - will be just pationately waiting and collecting dividends (yield is not bad , close to 2.5% and better than any GIC)


1. Take a TR ride & maybe your fear will dissipate. :biggrin:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Rocket_(Toronto_subway_car)

2. At first, I thought you said 'passionately', LOL. Yes, patience is important! What are you gonna do with your fat dividends you received on July 3rd?  Definitely better than a GIC. :rolleyes2:


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## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> At first, I thought you said 'passionately', LOL. Yes, patience is important! What are you gonna do with your fat dividends you received on July 3rd?  Definitely better than a GIC. :rolleyes2:


They weren't too "fat", as my position in BBD.B is pretty small... I justed DRIPed it... My "fatest" dividends are coming from PM , BCE and RCI.B


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## Gotcha

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - July 8, 2012) - Bombardier Aerospace announced today that a new customer, which has requested to remain unidentified at this time, has placed a conditional order for five CS100 and 10 CS300 jetliners.
Based on the list prices of CS100 and CS300 aircraft, the contract is valued at approximately $1.02 billion US.

Hopefully the day-traders are gonna keep their bbd.b stocks for a while!


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## Toronto.gal

Gotcha said:


> Hopefully the day-traders are gonna keep their bbd.b stocks for a while!


I'm never without BBD.B shares.  

The new customer remains conditional & unidentified for 'competitive reasons'. Here is a short interview with Bombardier's president: 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/bomba...on-this-year/2012/07/09/gJQAFsuqXW_video.html

Welcome to CMF Gotcha!


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## Sherlock

Last week I put a limit on bbd.b for $3.80 and it dipped down to 3.80 after I placed my limit order yet the order wasn't filled!


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## Toronto.gal

It wasn't filled because that price hit the week before last, so you were a week too late. :biggrin:

If confirmed, this will be the 11th order this year:

*airBaltic Signs Letter of Intent for up to 20 Bombardier CSeries Airliners*
http://www.bombardier.com/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d802256e3


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## underemployedactor

The rail division itself is probably worth $4. At these prices you're getting the aerospace division for free. And a decent divvy.


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## Dibs

I bought 700 more shares today at $3.69. Looking to sell them at around $4.


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## Gotcha

Dibs said:


> I bought 700 more shares today at $3.69. Looking to sell them at around $4.


For a profit of ... *217$*? (commission-free)

You better keep them for the next 20 years.


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## NakorOranges

Gotcha said:


> For a profit of ... *217$*? (commission-free)
> 
> You better keep them for the next 20 years.


Are you saying it wont go up or that 217$ isnt much of an absolute value ha.


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## Gotcha

NakorOranges said:


> Are you saying it wont go up or that 217$ isnt much of an absolute value ha.


Maybe both! 

No kidding, I wouldn't bother for 217$... I'm confident that long-term reward will be more.


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## NakorOranges

Yeah, this thread made me look into bbd (I never know WHAT to look at so I just see what other people are talking about and try to come to my own conclusions) and it seems...undervalued? Looks as if its been good news for the past few months that has only lead downwards. With all their new projects is there some other reason the stock has been dropping?

I just sold my suncore today for a 5-6% profit in the last 3 days and am looking for a new train to jump on


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## PMREdmonton

This stock has been taking a pounding lately.

Their core businsses seem to be reasonably strong. Is this a reaction to current projections of weakness in the world economy, a reaction to the pending and now confirmed PQ minority government or something else?

I am inclined to buy a bit more here. My ACB is 3.91 so I'm a bit in the red but not enough to stress me out in a company that is functioning well presently and projects to do well into the future.

Any other perspectives on their recent decline?


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## Toronto.gal

I'm actually somewhat surprised that shares have hit the lows of Dec. 2011.

I think everyone is eagerly & impatiently waiting for the CSeries to finally start flying, which will happen later this year [assuming no delays]. Only virtual flights have taken place:
http://www.bombardier.com/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d802446e7

If everything goes according to plan, and if all that has been written about the new plane turns out to be true, ie: the fuel consumption of 20% less than its competitors, etc., the stock should start moving up. From all official press releases that I have read, the company has received numerous orders, however, only about 1/2 of them are considered firm orders thus far, so if the other 1/2 materializes in near future, the stock should do well in the next couple of years IMO.

*Business/Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast : 2012-2031*
http://www2.bombardier.com/en/3_0/3_8/market_forecast_BA/index.html
http://www2.bombardier.com/en/3_0/3_8/market_forecast/index.html

Then of course there is the transportation arm of the company as well.

A very difficult & competitive industry for sure, so much so, that it seems some carriers are giving deep discounts to win orders.

*"Boeing and Airbus are locked in a global contest for market share, in some cases more than halving prices to bolster orders of the newly revamped models of best-selling narrowbody jets".* 
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/us-philippines-airbus-pal-idUSBRE87R04120120828

Maybe BBD.B does not give deep discounts.


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## Young&Ambitious

Bombardier downgraded by one analyst: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/national-bank-downgrades-bombardier-warns-of-tough-quarter/article4793567/


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## Dibs

Bombardier delays first C-Series flight by 6 months, cuts train unit jobs


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## Young&Ambitious

Getting pretty close to 52 week low.... I may get back into this one in the next few days, anyone else?


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## RParks

I'm thinking of buying about 1000 shares. Might pull the trigger tomorrow.


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## Dibs

Bombardier signs an agreement to sell some jets in Russia:
http://www.bombardier.ca/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d8029a8de

There was a big spike in volume and price at the close.


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## gibor365

Dibs said:


> Bombardier signs an agreement to sell some jets in Russia:
> http://www.bombardier.ca/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d8029a8de
> 
> There was a big spike in volume and price at the close.


It's very good  Russia is a huge market with a lot of money....


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## Jets99

To the moon Alice!!


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## Celso

BBD.B was my first dip into buying stock (currently my only stock). While the yesterdays sale to Russia is good news, i´m kind of disappointed that it has gone up as i wanted to buy more on the cheap . Let´s see what happens today after they announce earnings. Up or down?


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## Toronto.gal

Well done Celso for starting small/cheap!

Stock was down -6% early in the morning as you know already due to earnings, but the report was not all that bad.

You need patience with this stock, but if you bought in the low $3's in late 2012, you should do alright in 2013/2014.


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## liquidfinance

Thoughts on the results?

A good entry point or downhill from here?


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## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> Well done Celso for starting small/cheap!
> 
> Stock was down -6% early in the morning as you know already due to earnings, but the report was not all that bad.
> 
> You need patience with this stock, but if you bought in the low $3's in late 2012, you should do alright in 2013/2014.


50/50  they have historically the biggest backlog right now , so some potential growth... A lot will depends on when and how C300 has first flight...should be sometime this summer


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## Celso

Thank you T.gal, 

Do you hold any BBD.B? 
I wish i had bought in the low $3´s, but it was more like the high $3´s. 
Was watching yesterday as it began to climb but i listened to some of my greying hair and held off buying. I´d like to add more in the near future so drops like this are a good opportunity.
As is said, this is my first dip in the stock pool but i´m looking at this one as a long term hold. Let´s hope patience pays off!
How am i doing so far? 



Toronto.gal said:


> Well done Celso for starting small/cheap!
> 
> Stock was down -6% early in the morning as you know already due to earnings, but the report was not all that bad.
> 
> You need patience with this stock, but if you bought in the low $3's in late 2012, you should do alright in 2013/2014.


----------



## Celso

gibor said:


> 50/50  they have historically the biggest backlog right now , so some potential growth... A lot will depends on when and how C300 has first flight...should be sometime this summer


C300 is a risk but also potential to pay off. BBD.D looks like a decent value at this point...to me at least.


----------



## gibor365

Celso said:


> C300 is a risk but also potential to pay off. BBD.D looks like a decent value at this point...to me at least.


For me too  this is why I didn't sell it yesterday....Just crossing my fingers that C300 first flight will be successfull


----------



## gibor365

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/bu...ffset-stronger-aerospace-sales-192256111.html


----------



## Celso

gibor said:


> http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/bu...ffset-stronger-aerospace-sales-192256111.html


I was listening to their webcast this morning and i preferred this quote to the headline 
"Our results in 2012 are not reflective of our potential as we faced some execution issues," CEO Pierre Beaudoin


----------



## Toronto.gal

Celso said:


> 1. Do you hold any BBD.B?
> 2. I wish i had bought in the low $3´s, but it was more like the high $3´s.
> 3. i listened to some of my greying hair and held off buying.
> 4. I´d like to add more in the near future so drops like this are a good opportunity.
> 5. How am i doing so far?


*1.* Yes, I'm probably the forum's largest shareholder [love solid battered stocks].  

Many hate this stock & with good reason if you look at past history & how competitive/difficult this sector is, but there are ways to handle volatility as well, and hence prosper while waiting & not just cry.  

*2.* That is still a good value! Also, keep in mind that it's not only an aerospace, but also a rail tech company, so as someone put it here, at current valuation, it's like getting 2 companies for the price of 1. This quarter was hit mostly by the weaker results from its rail division btw.

*3.* It's better to avoid buying right before earnings, as even when reports may be positive, the stock could still take a dive [although at your purchased price, the downside would have been rather limited]. If anything, it's better to book some profits right before earnings, and then if the stock were to go down, you would have some profits to keep and/or use to buy more shares at same or lower price.

*4.* What made the stock dive in late 2012, was mainly the delay of the C-Series plane, but if all goes according to plan, hopefully the late June/2013 date will stick & it will be the major catalyst for this year. HOWEVER, if there will be further delays à la BlackBerry, watch out, as the next catalyst, the LearJet 85, was also delayed and expected to now enter service only in 2014 [as opposed to late 2013].

*5.* How much have you lost? That should answer your question! If you're a newbie, gains are less important than losses.


----------



## Celso

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Yes, I'm probably the forum's largest shareholder [love solid battered stocks].
> 
> Many hate this stock & with good reason if you look at past history & how competitive/difficult this sector is, but there are ways to handle volatility as well, and hence prosper while waiting & not just cry.
> 
> *2.* That is still a good value! Also, keep in mind that it's not only an aerospace, but also a rail tech company, so as someone put it here, at current valuation, it's like getting 2 companies for the price of 1. This quarter was hit mostly by the weaker results from its rail division btw.
> 
> *3.* It's better to avoid buying right before earnings, as even when reports may be positive, the stock could still take a dive [although at your purchased price, the downside would have been rather limited]. If anything, it's better to book some profits right before earnings, and then if the stock were to go down, you would have some profits to keep and/or use to buy more shares at same or lower price.
> 
> *4.* What made the stock dive in late 2012, was mainly the delay of the C-Series plane, but if all goes according to plan, hopefully the late June/2013 date will stick & it will be the major catalyst for this year. HOWEVER, if there will be further delays à la BlackBerry, watch out, as the next catalyst, the LearJet 85, was also delayed and expected to now enter service only in 2014 [as opposed to late 2013].
> 
> *5.* How much have you lost? That should answer your question! If you're a newbie, gains are less important than losses.



Sorry T.Gal i´d been meaning to respond to your post but my mind is like a lumber room:things wanted, always buried.

1. I´ve noticed from some of your previous posts that you seem to like the underdogs. I imagine these are long term holds? 
It is an extremely competitive sector but Embraer has been rewarded for repackaging it´s e-series jets, and Bombardier seemingly punished for bringing out a whole new aircraft. To me Embraer´s strategy seems like bread for today and hunger for tomorrow. Time will out, i suppose....on BBD´s side :chuncky:

2. It seemed like a good value at the time. It still looks like a good value looking long term which is why i picked up some more recently. Like you said it´s like two for the price of one, but how do you value a company that does both LRT/Rail and Aircraft? Perhaps my view is overly simplistic in nature but even with it current issues with the C-series and slowing sales in its rail division i would have expected the stock to be better valued.

3. This is something i am learning as i go.

4. This thursday BBD provides an update on the C-series program. Let´s keep our fingers crossed.


5. I only lose if i sell now!! :chuncky: but since this is a long term hold i´m not worried much about "fluctuations" in price


----------



## 1sImage

Don't forget they got a spot advertizing off the Gardiner. I like companies that show off.


----------



## maxandrelax

Does Bomb pays divvie in usd? Do you hold the shares in an American$ account or Canadian account and have the dividends paid into American$ account?


----------



## gibor365

maxandrelax said:


> Does Bomb pays divvie in usd? Do you hold the shares in an American$ account or Canadian account and have the dividends paid into American$ account?


They pay in CAD.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Well that correction didn't last too long.

I think it is probably rising on recent news about the progress they are making in getting the C-series ready for a 2013 launch. 

It'll be a great day for Canadian aerospace engineering when the C-series makes its first flight and makes Embraer look like a second rate alternative in this class of airplanes.


----------



## 1sImage

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Yes, I'm probably the forum's largest shareholder [love solid battered stocks].


More than 2500?:tongue-new:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Yes 1sImage, but you might be in the top 3 or 5 spot. :chuncky:

I saw your buys from yesterday btw, and I liked 2 out of 3; not sure about Target, but hope it works out for you. 

*Celso*, yes, the 'underdogs' are long-term holds, however, I trade them as well since the stock is volatile, and then use profits to add to my position when the stock drops, so it's like I pay myself a dividend on top of the dividend. 

What you say about Embraer is true, however, there is always hope for us to unseat them, and hopefully BBD.B will receive more orders, especially from our neighbors. 

Did you read this article?
http://business.financialpost.com/2...ces-big-penalties-for-swiss-railway-contract/


----------



## 1sImage

Number 1 now!!!


----------



## thenegotiator

even though shorts is a sprecies in extintiction here it goes


total 28/3 total 15/03 net change
46,544,774 34,879,808 11,664,966

like i said it is expensive to be short right?

most here know where MFC is trading now also right ?
one may want to look at the short position that built up on their stellar rise.
guys .... there is no free lunch.


----------



## 1sImage

Yesterday, got 5000 more shares. So 7500 total now.
Today was a good day!


----------



## 1sImage

Find out tomorrow I guess. 

http://m.thestar.com/?content=cc8f8b62a931e435c22febf1943c7c04&section=business


----------



## thenegotiator

1sImage said:


> Find out tomorrow I guess.
> 
> http://m.thestar.com/?content=cc8f8b62a931e435c22febf1943c7c04§ion=business


and... where and what should i look with ur post ?
here? http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2...esident_new_camel_after_first_gift_eaten.html

please..... i know where to look but be specific bro.
GL


----------



## 1sImage

Lol. It loads for me, but in a strange way. Wierd









Competition could heat up in Canada's airline industry as Porter Airlines is set to announce an expansion to its service based from a downtown Toronto airport."Porter Airlines to spread its wings," the airline said as it announced a news conference Wednesday to outline its growth plans at Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport.The event comes as the Wall Street Journal, citing two people familiar with the deal, reported Tuesday that Porter signed a letter of intent with Montreal-based Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) in December for the CSeries jets.The addition of the CSeries jets would be a major shift for Porter, which currently uses only the smaller Bombardier Q400 turboprop planes in its fleet.Bombardier announced in December that an unidentified customer in the Americas had expressed interest in a dozen, 110- to 125-seat CS100 jets with an option on 18 more.It valued the 30 planes at US$2.08 billion before discounts.


----------



## thenegotiator

did u like the camel though?:biggrin:
if they announce something there will be a short covering run for sure.
if not ... then....
GL

i know what are u talking about .
just teasing ya.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Q1/Q2 = May 9th/Aug.1 respectively.

The above 2 quarters will be interesting, but even more so, will be 2014 as 2 Cseries are scheduled to begin service next year, which as of last month, remain on track for its maiden [aeronautical] voyage next month [wow June is just around the corner already!]. 

I'm surprised, however, that they won't show it at next month's Paris air show.

"We plan to fly in June, but to go to an air show with an experimental airplane would take at least a month away from our flight-test program because we'd have to prepare it to go," Beaudoin said in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York.

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/Bomb...s+Paris+Show/8141973/story.html#ixzz2SF5r7ccx


----------



## 1sImage

Keep feeding positive information gal...

Im hungry!!! Lol


----------



## Toronto.gal

:encouragement:

Better than last Q!


----------



## Dibs

I went to their shareholder meeting today. They must be really serious about cutting back on expenses because they didn't give us any food! :stupid:


----------



## Beaver101

They figured shareholders' gains should allow themselves to get their own burger + beer to bring to the meeting ... lol.


----------



## 1sImage

we'll see how it does the next day!!! TODAY!!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Keep in mind that the stock had been increasing since last week already, when it was trading @ $3.93, so after reaching a high of $4.55 yesterday, it has effectively increased 16% in about a week [in anticipation of the earnings release]; also significantly higher since the $2.99 low of just 6 months ago [when I made this stock my #1 holding], and 18.88% YTD. 

2013 & beyond will still be challenging/costly years, but I'm looking forward to the next couple of years & have profited nicely while waiting as well. Not a stock for the faint of heart nor for people who hate planes/trains/snowmobiles, LOL.

*Beav:* spot-on!


----------



## ban

Speaking of snowmobiles, BRP is going public...


----------



## Toronto.gal

Interested in the Ski/Sea-Doos IPO?

The 1st Ski-Doo from 1959, and the newest:

















More history:

http://www.bombardiermuseum.com/en/content/jab/biographie1959_1964.htm
http://www.brp.com/en-ca/company/history


----------



## Celso

I´m on vacation and promised the wife i wouldn´t check on the stock until we got back. I´m ashamed of myself for taking a peek this afternoon, but what a pleasant surprise. :biggrin:
I´m keeping my fingers crossed for the C-Series test flight.


----------



## humble_pie

t.gal can you dig up a photograph of the very first snowmobile?

apparently company founder Armand Bombardier, a farmer's son in valcourt, quebec, built his first prototype at the age of 15. He was born in 1907, so the year must have been 1922. Armand's brother Léo reportedly drove the sled for a mile through the village while bombardier père et mère were said to be horrified at the danger. Something about the gasoline tanks being mounted next to the driver.

this first prototype had a propeller. It was steered by a pair of skis in the front while another pair of stubby skis supported the rear. The famous rear snowmobile driving tracks that made the vehicle viable didn't appear until several years later.


----------



## ban

If I may...














http://www.museebombardier.com/en/content/jab/biographie1907_1925.htm


----------



## Toronto.gal

Celso said:


> 1. I´m on vacation
> 2. promised the wife i wouldn´t check on the stock until we got back.
> 3. I´m ashamed of myself for taking a peek this afternoon...
> 4. I´m keeping my fingers crossed for the C-Series test flight.


*1.* Hope you're having a good time!
*2.* My lips are sealed. 
*3.* No need. :rolleyes2:
*4.* My heart is pounding! I was afraid about another potential delay, but I figured that if nothing had been announced prior to the earnings release, that they would not have chosen that date for such a negative announcement, so hopefully that flight will take place, I believe on June 30th, if not, hopefully no later than this summer at least.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. t.gal can you dig up a photograph of the very first snowmobile? built his first prototype at the age of 15.
> 2. Armand's brother Léo reportedly drove the sled for a mile through the village while bombardier père et mère were said to be horrified at the danger.
> 3. The famous rear snowmobile driving tracks that made the vehicle viable didn't appear until several years later.


*1.* There were pictures in the 1st link I posted upthread [1907-1925 period]. It was very interesting reading the various periods. In fact, all this interest in Bombardier has been educational, fun & lucratif for me. 

Indeed the fascination of young JAB began at a very early age, as young as 10 in fact: 'He's only 10-years-old when he takes a cigar box and a broken alarm clock and makes a working model of a tractor. As he gets older, Armand dreams of building a vehicle that can glide over snow -- a fitting goal for a boy growing up in rural Valcourt, Que. At 15 Armand designs and builds his first snow vehicle which is basically: 

- a large sleigh 
- powered by a Ford Model T engine
- with a wooden airplane propeller at the back.' 

Once again, voici l'auto neige, aka: snowmobile [couldn't enlarge the image to find that gas tank, lol].










*2. New Year's Surprise* [1907-1925 section]

On New Year's Eve 1922, Joseph-Armand had a very special surprise for his family. From his father's workshop emerged a strange contraption, an old Ford engine mounted on four runners. Perched on the back, the 15-year-old started up a large hand-made propeller. The family watched with a mixture of awe and horror as the bizarre invention traveled a kilometre over the village streets, raising an infernal din. In front, Joseph-Armand's young brother Léopold steered the "diabolical machine" with his feet. The inventor had just tested his first snowmobile, the forebear of the Ski-Doo. 

*The dream is interrupted* [1959-1964 section]

Joseph-Armand Bombardier would only see the earliest signs of the phenomenal popularity of his snowmobile. His death on February 18, 1964 at the age of 56 ends a full and happy life. With his departure, the world loses an ingenious inventor and exceptional entrepreneur. *In a moving letter to his children, he encourages them to pursue his work. The success of Bombardier Inc. and the humanitarian and social mission fulfilled by the J. Armand Bombardier Foundation show he had every reason to have confidence in them.*

*3.* A short video:
http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categori...nowmobile-legacy-1/the-tireless-inventor.html

Did you know that the name Ski-Doo came about as a result of a typing error? What was the original name, and how many snowmobiling trails does Québec have?

The first to answer the questions correctly will win this: [miniature version]

Bonne chance!


----------



## humble_pie

but a shadow lies across the very inception of the proud bombardier story.

it was american Carl Eliason who produced the world's first tracked & functional snowmobile. In 1924, in wisconsin.

http://www.eliason-snowmobile.com/phase/phase1.html

later, armand bombardier would turn to rear tracks, of course. But i found myself wondering whether he got the idea from eliason's contraption &, if so, how the information would have come to him.

the circumstances were like nothing today. No google, no fax, no xerox photocopies, probably not even telephone service to valcourt quebec. Armand & Carl didn't even speak the same language - although a drawing would have been enough to convince the young Valcourt mechanic about the tracks he should be building into his own vehicle prototype.

did they communicate? i don't think so. Somewhere in armand's bio i read that at the age of about 18 armand bombardier lived & worked in montreal, where he studied "electrical engineering." That would have been around 1925, a year or so after eliason had produced his contraption in wisconsin.

my hypothesis would be that one of armand's montreal profs told him about the new rear-tracked wisconsin machine. The young quebecer didn't need to be told twice ...

btw i think the first name of the bombardier snowmobile was SkiDog? it was supposed to replace dog sleds.


----------



## ban

This is interesting as well:
"White and his mechanic, looking for a vehicle that could be used year-round, decided to put wooden runners on the front of a Ford Model T and tractor treads on a double set of wheels at the rear.
In 1913 White patented his “Snowmobile”, and started selling complete units for $750 and the conversion kits for $400."
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1507

T.gal
http://www.canadacool.com/COOLFACTS/QUEBEC/EasternTownshipsSkiDoo.html
I win, how do I get my shinny sea doo? :biggrin:


----------



## humble_pie

ban u also have to name the number of snowmobile trails in quebec


----------



## m3s

Looks like the Russians may have been a few years ahead of Armand in the propeller-driven snow machine business. They were using "aerosleds" in the early 1900's with versions from some now famous aerospace names ( Igor Sikorsky of Sikorsky helicopters and Andrei Tupolev)










I've always been completely mesmerized watching how agile the Fordson Snow-Motor tractor was in action circa 1920s






I think it was the utility vehicles that gave Bombardier the big break, selling half-tracks to the Canadian Army and muskeg loggers and eventually transforming them into Snowcats for grooming trails. Even today they lead the snowmobile industry and small engine technology by acquiring Austrian ROTAX engines. My BMW bike even has a ROTAX engine. That's all BRP now though

Was Bombardier bailed out by the government at some point? I never understood why they divested from all their military and recreation ventures. Lots of sweet Bombardier trains in Europe though


----------



## Toronto.gal

Toronto.gal said:


> The first to answer the question*s* correctly will win this: [miniature version]


*Ban:* you and hp each answered ONE question, but I'm afraid you needed to be the first to answer both, and since I can't give 1/2 a Sea-Doo away, it's now a price I get to keep. 

Though I brought up the snowmobile word here, thanks *Ban* for opening up the topic.

The additional information by you guys was much appreciated.

À plus tard & bon w/end.


----------



## humble_pie

mode did you ever hear about the floating snowmobile? It was made of composites but the body was filled w a polymer that floats in water.

it was designed to save snowmobilers' lives when they fell through ice into lakes & rivers. I don't know if the machine ever went into production. It was designed in the 80s by morley smith. The same montreal industrial designer who designed the first montreal metro railcars & the LRC train.


----------



## m3s

Never heard of that no.. You can buy snowmobile suits designed to keep the rider alive in icy water, but I'm sure many Ski Doos are resting at the bottom of Québec's lakes. They just call their insurance and get a shiny new one

So does the government still subsidize Bombardier? Or it just happens every decade or so? What would happen to the stock if the corporate welfare dried up? With some more reading, Bombardier family still owns a large piece of BRP... So maybe they sold it to themselves as a private spinoff to get away from any restriction of the bailouts? (BRP manufacturing moved to Mexico for example) Lots of our army equipment used to be built in Canada by Bombardier. We ended up paying ridiculously high prices for awfully shoddy replicas really. I used to watch Bombardier planes with markings from around the world show up on a remote Canadian ex-military base for service. Seems like only something a government would dream up. Lots of organic fishy smell anyways


----------



## ban

*mode3sour*
NKL-26 on your first picture was from World War II
First Russian snowmobile was made by Sergey Nezhdanovsky, who got the patent for it in 1916.


----------



## Nemo2

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/88802.stm



> May 7 is Radio Day in Russia - known officially as Communication Workers' day. The BBC's Moscow correspondent Rob Parsons marks the occasion by taking a sideways look at the history of Russian technology and the unshakeable belief that the Soviets invented everything from rockets to radios.
> 
> Switch on the TV in Soviet Russia during the 1960s and you were sure to see propaganda films crowing the triumphs of Russian achievements in space.
> 
> And there was indeed much to crow about. In 1961, the Soviet Union became the first country to put a man into space.
> 
> It was a crowning achievement in a century studded with Russian scientific discovery - and some memorable inventions, like the lightbulb, the radio and the television.
> 
> But hang on a minute - weren't they invented in the West? Didn't Marconi have something to do with radio and wasn't it a Scotsman who gave us the television?
> 
> Not if you're Russian they didn't...............................//.................."They're just produced abroad. Neck ties from Italy, jeans from USA - they're all Russian inventions. So there's no such thing as being unpatriotic by buying a BMW, because a BMW was founded by a Russian engineer."
> 
> The truth hurts
> 
> For journalist Masha Gessen who was brought up on Soviet post-war patriotic songs claiming Soviet science led the way to the skies, it was a shock to learn that fiction had often been blended with fact.
> 
> "What you learn as a child really stays with you," she says. "And sometimes it's a revelation to me now when I find out - now, in my 30s - that something has its origins elsewhere in the world when I was convinced the whole time that it had its origins in Russia."


http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,853789,00.html
Monday, July 11, 1949


> During the last year, Russia's ex post facto craving to lead the world in discoveries and inventions has reached the proportions of a national mania. Not content with claiming the airplane, telegraph, radio and electric light as Russian inventions, Soviet propagandists have been staking out their claims in every branch of the arts & sciences. Among the many Russian scientists who "were discussing" evolution long before Darwin, say the propagandists, was the 18th Century scholar, Mikhail Lomonosov. Scientist Lomonosov was quite a fellow; he also invented the helicopter and developed the theory of conservation of energy.
> 
> Another unsung Russian genius...


Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,853789,00.html#ixzz2T1LHrbL8


----------



## m3s

Name something that we do acknowledge as a Russian invention? Of course, they copied everything.

I've run across lots of little tidbits about Germany we "conveniently forgot about" as well. It was a different time and we had propaganda as well. Who knows who thought of the radio or snowmobile first

Various sports on ice with sticks and balls cut in half were played around the world (including Russia) long before Canada "invented" hockey for one example


----------



## humble_pie

that fordson snow tractor is crayzee. At first i was wondering how come they let a fantastic machine like that die off. Surely it was too good to be true? 

but then i thought yea it is too good to be true. Machine is on the wild side of bonkers. Poor driver looks so risky perched high up in his tractor seat & hanging over nothing. What if he bounced off? he'd be minced meat !

what if he put out a leg to one side on one of those wild spins? the way people do, just to steady themselves? presto, no foot !!

EDIT: when he drove over the fences, i failed to understand why the snow tractor didn't chop off all the tops of the fence posts ...


----------



## humble_pie

i think i've told this story before. My neighbour in france told me that the french invented blue jeans.

this turns out to be true. Denim was first woven in Nîmes, france (toile de Nîmes) (heh)

then my 8-year-old came home from school & told me his french classmates had said france had won World War II.


----------



## ban

mode3sour said:


> Name something that we do acknowledge as a Russian invention?


Vodka :biggrin:
Sorry, couldn't resist


----------



## humble_pie

vodka ... i imagine the polish, the ukrainians, the georgians etc would have something to say about that ...


----------



## Toronto.gal

ban said:


> First Russian snowmobile was made by Sergey Nezhdanovsky, who got the patent for it in 1916.


Spasibo for the image.

More interesting Russian snowmobiles. 
http://englishrussia.com/tag/snowmobile/


----------



## Toronto.gal

ban said:


> Vodka...


It's actually a serious subject, which has reminded me of a live interview I saw on CNN a few years ago, but that remains vivid in my mind:

'The president of Russia announced a new crusade against alcohol, of all things. *Right now, you can buy a half liter of vodka for about $3.25* [this was in 2009 when I saw the interview], a price within the reach of almost all Russians. Now, Russia's justifiably famous for the vodka. Many believe it was invented there, many aficionados claim Russia still makes the best in the world. 

I don't know. I don't drink it, but it is killing the Russian people, killing them, in fact, at such an alarming rate that the crisis alcoholism in Russia has the potential to drag the nation down with it. 

In recent years, *alcohol caused more than 50 percent of the deaths of Russians between 15 and 54 years.* That comes from the respected medical journal "The Lancet." This includes everything from liver disease to drunk driving. 

In contrast, statistics from the CDC, the Center for Disease Control, indicate that only 3 percent of all American deaths can be linked to alcohol abuse. 

Russia's per capita consumption of pure alcohol is five gallons each year. That includes babies and teetotalers. That's twice what the World Health Organization calls the "danger level." 

One truly disturbing number -- *40,000 people die in Russia each year of alcohol poisoning*, often caused by drinking things like cologne and cleaning fluid just to get the alcohol. 

It has been historically political suicide for Russian politicians to tackle the issue. That's how strongly people feel about their freedom to drink heavily. Mikhail Gorbachev may be famous all over the world for ending the Cold War, but in Russia he's also famous for his 1985 anti-booze crusade. He made it illegal to sell alcohol before 2:00 p.m., closed down liquor stores, ordered vineyards destroyed.

It worked. The government crackdown probably saved more than a million lives, or so the government claims. But it made Gorbachev quite unpopular. 

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the laws dissolved and drinking shot up to higher levels than before. President Medvedev has called Russia's alcohol problem a national disaster. Deaths from alcohol play a large role in what is the literal dying off of the Russian nation. 

*In 2005 Russia's population was 143 million. But it is losing 700,000 people a year. The United Nations estimates that by 2030, the Russian population could go as low as 115 million. That's about one fifth of the population gone in 25 years at a time when countries like China, India, and even the United States are growing in population. *

Russia has big plans for its future, great economic growth in the next 10, 20 years it hopes, but demographics are destiny. I find it hard to believe that the dying nation can also be a growing nation.'

Source: Zakaria's GPS.

'To understand the grip vodka has on Russian culture, one need only to look at its name: *vodka is a diminutive form of the word voda — Russian for water.'*
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1951620,00.html#ixzz2T5POpcmI

While the above topic is not funny, the following is, which made me ROFL last week:

'Turks react after Dr. Öz calls Turkish coffee Greek.'
http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=314622


----------



## Toronto.gal

Oh, I can read/write so much when everyone is still sleeping at home on a cloudy Sunday morning. 

Speaking of dying/growing nations, considering Canada is small in comparison to the countries mentioned upthread, it does pretty well in the innovation/technology department - as of late 2011: [not verified, but sounds right]

*- economic output devoted to R&D investment:* the U.S. ranks sixth. Israel is in first place, followed by Sweden, Finland, Japan, and Switzerland, which make up the top five. South Korea, Germany, Denmark, and France round out the top ten. Canada ranks 13th. The BRICs are much further down the list, with Russia 22nd, China 26th, Brazil 31st and India 38th.

*- scientific and engineering researchers per capita:* The United States ranks seventh. Finland takes the top spot, followed by Sweden, Japan, Singapore, and Denmark. Norway, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand round out the top ten. As for the BRICS: Russia is 12th, India 36th, China 39th and Brazil 43rd.

*- innovations, measured as patents per capita:* the United States takes first place, followed by Japan, Switzerland, Finland, and Israel. Sweden, Germany, Canada, Denmark, and Hong Kong round out the top ten. Turning to the BRICs, India is 26th, Russia 34th, and Brazil 41st. (Reliable data for China were not available).

*- combining all three of these measures, the overall Global Technology Index:* the United States ranks third. Finland takes the top spot, followed by Japan. Israel’s fourth place finish may come as a surprise to some. But as Dan Senor and Saul Singer argue in Start-up Nation, Israel has relentlessly pursued an economic development strategy based on launching innovative firms. Israel has the highest concentration of engineers in the world—135 per 10,000 people, compared to 85 per 10,000 people in the United States. Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, Korea, Germany, and Singapore round out the top ten.

http://www.theatlanticcities.com/te...eading-nations-innovation-and-technology/224/

Given Israel's contributions in innovation & technology, I find Mr. Hawkings decision to boycott the upcoming *academic conference* in Israel very ironic.
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com...rael-and-gaza-and-this-is-what-he-should-say/

*50 Most Innovative Countries in Bloomberg's Global Innovation Index:
*
Canada ranked 17th in Bloomberg's Global Innovation Index. Here is how the country ranked in the determining factors:
*
R&D intensity:* 16th [Canada might want to follow Israel & Finland's example; #1 & #2 respectively in this area]
*Productivity:* 15th
*High-tech density:* 25th
*Researcher concentration:* 11th
*Manufacturing capability:* 67th
*Tertiary efficiency:* 1st 
*Patent activity:* 46th

http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-02-01/50-most-innovative-countries.html#slide52


----------



## Toronto.gal

My last post of the day. 

From humble snowmobile beginning to global transportation powerhouse in railway & aerospace industries: in 1974, Bombardier wins its first mass transit contract to manufacture 423 cars for the city of Montréal’s subway system & enters the aerospace industry in 1986. 

Commercial Aircraft:

*- CS100 & CS300 *[110 & 130 seat] - is the only 100% newly designed aircraft, offering lowest operating costs in its class/significant fuel burn advantage/exceptional operational flexibility/widebody comfort/unmatched environmental scorecard - FTV1 estimate [flight test vehicle one] = end of June 2013/entering service in mid & end 2014 respectively. 

*- CRJ NextGen Series* [Canadair Regional Jet] - the 60-99 seat CRJ700, CRJ900, and CRJ1000, is the most successful commercial regional jet program.

*- Q400 NextGen* - the 70 to 80 seat, designed for short-haul routes, is the most technologically advanced and cost effective turboprop aircraft in the world. The modern Q Series aircraft are the quietest turboprops flying today, thanks to the development of a revolutionary Noise and Vibration Suppression (NVS) System. Not only does this NVS technology significantly reduce noise levels, it also reduces cabin vibration, making the flight as comfortable as possible. With a maximum cruise speed of 360 kts (667 km/h) and outstanding airfield performance, the Q400 is easily as fast as most jets on airline routes under 500 miles (900 km).

*Source:* BBD.B website.

Anybody knows what the C&Q stand for in the CSeries and Q400? 

The 1st to answer both questions correctly, wins a Learjet business class ticket to the 50th International Paris Air Show from June 17th to 23rd, and best of all, gets to fly next to me. :biggrin:

While we wait for the CSeries, perhaps other BBD.B fans here can tell us a little about the Business & Amphibious aircrafts.


----------



## Beaver101

Simply C=Canada, Q=Quebec? Flying next to you in one of those jets would be fun ... :encouragement:


----------



## ban

I’d answer if the trip was with some other type. Learjet needs a stop for refueling…


----------



## Toronto.gal

ban said:


> Learjet needs a stop for refueling…


Spoiled, aren't we, pffffffffftttttttt. :rolleyes2:

True, the max. range of the Learjet85 = 3,000 nm/5,556 km, which is under the 6,017 km distance from T.O. to Paris, but how inconvenient can it be to stop for refueling? It seems that passengers don't necessarily have to even disembark, though there are conditions, but don't have the time to read further now, but if you're interested, scroll down to (2) Fuelling with Passengers on Board:

http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/civilaviation/regserv/cars/part7-standards-725-2173.htm#725_40

*Beaver:* though you got the answers wrong, lol, your humour and kind words makes you the winner, but I'll upgrade our tickets to the 'infinitely intelligent Challenger 605' to take us direct to Paris [4,000nm/7,408 km]. :biggrin:

http://businessaircraft.bombardier....enger/Fact Sheet/Challenger 605 factsheet.pdf

The answers btw, were provided in the descriptions I had posted above, but I guess you don't have an eagle eye. :tongue-new:

*- Cseries* = '100% newly designed aircraft', hence C= *c*hange [is in the air]. 
*- Q400* = 'quietest turboprops flying today', hence Q= *q*uiet.

Paris nous voilà! nthego:


----------



## Toronto.gal

*'achieving a 12.6% decrease in accident frequency rate and a 17.2% decrease in accident severity rate since 2011.'*

What kind of 'accident severity' would those be? 
http://www.bombardier.ca/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d802c022a


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> Spoiled, ...
> 
> *Beaver:* though you got the answers wrong, lol, your humour and kind words makes you the winner, but I'll upgrade our tickets to the 'infinitely intelligent Challenger 605' to take us direct to Paris [4,000nm/7,408 km]. :biggrin:
> 
> http://businessaircraft.bombardier....enger/Fact Sheet/Challenger 605 factsheet.pdf
> 
> The answers btw, were provided in the descriptions I had posted above, but I guess you don't have an eagle eye. :tongue-new:
> 
> *- Cseries* = '100% newly designed aircraft', hence C= *c*hange [is in the air].
> *- Q400* = 'quietest turboprops flying today', hence Q= *q*uiet.
> 
> Paris nous voilà! nthego:


 ... sure, I'll take the upgrade TO.Gal for trying. No I don't have an eagle when reading at mache6wpm, I get goofy-eyed instead. Well, there is always something "new" to learn on CMF. :encouragement: Interesting "C" stands for "Change" and "Q" for "Quiet", nice naming conventions though I think my suggestion is better.


----------



## Toronto.gal

To tell the truth, I had not read about any such answers anywhere, I simply [by logic] deduced that the Q came from the 'quiet turbo'; similarly, when I read the CSeries' slogan was 'change is in the air', I figured that C had stood for change.

However, after reading about the 'accident severity' report, I think you'll be flying with _*ban*_ et pas moi. :chuncky:


----------



## Beaver101

Pourquoi avec *ban *et pas tu? :distress:


----------



## ban

Because I'm a Gulfstream man, you're safe with me...


----------



## 1sImage

Cashed out 7500 shares yesterday for a profit of $4200 in just under a month in a half.

Hoping to buy back in soon!!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

I'm surprised you sold all your shares at this particular time; hope it was done in your TFSA.

I'm holding my $3+ positions for another couple of years at least, however, I did book profits [45%] on a % of said shares, and traded the momentum just prior to earnings, which was very profitable as well in about a week [the latter were purchased from $3.93 to $3.98/sold from $4.50 to $4.75, with all profits going back to the stock at the appropriate time].

Fantastic returns 1sImage! :congratulatory:

*Beav:* ne soyez pas triste.

*********

At EBACE next week, BBD.B will showcase 4 business jets:

*- Learjet 75* - [9 passengers] - 2,000nm (3,704 km) is capable of flying between Geneva and Cairo non-stop.

*- Challenger 300 *- [8-10 passengers] - 3,065nm (5,646 km) connects Geneva with Dubai non-stop. 

*- Challenger 605* - [13 passengers] - 4,000nm (7,408 km) from Geneva to Montreal.

*- Global 6000* - [8-19 passengers] - 6,000nm (11,112 km ) - this intrepid jet can link Geneva with Tokyo and Geneva with São Paulo, non-stop.

Let's hope BBD.B will impress, though the list of exhibitors is pretty large.

http://www.ebace.aero/2013/attendees/static-display/ 
http://www.bombardier.ca/en/aerospace/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d802bfe85


----------



## Jets99

In at $3.05 on Nov 21/12. Up 51.8%. No plans to sell. Mistake was not buying more. In hindsight this one was obvious. But it was a flier after all. 

Gotta love them Jets!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Jets99 said:


> 1. Up 51.8%.
> 2. Mistake was not buying more. In hindsight this one was obvious.


*1.* Fantastic 6 month return, but with a name like that, no wonder you missed the lowest by a mere .6 cents! 

*2.* Indeed a screaming buy back in Nov./12 when the company had announced the CSeries six month delay due to supplier & tech issues.

The stock is still cheap, but unless the company misses the first flight target next month, which is still a possibility, I think the downside potential should be limited now. 

Aerospace & transportation order backlog as of last Q = $32 & $31 billion respectively, and has 388 orders for the CSeries alone, so the next few years should hopefully be profitable ones; company has estimated a 30% increase in sales by 2015. Tall order?

While we wait....... 

Bombardier's CSeries planes will be:

- 12,000 lbs. lighter than any other aircraft in the same category of seats 
- 15% operating cost advantage over the competition
- reduce fuel consumption rate to 20% lower than the competition 
- improved clean-sheet design that will reduce noise and give it greater operational flexibility 

But rival Embraer takes a shot at Bombardier’s CSeries just the same. :rolleyes2:

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/Riva...dier+CSeries/8350874/story.html#ixzz2TYWwQBGb


----------



## Jets99

Good gravy your research is impressive TGal! I buy and hold long term in general but this one is tempting to take some profit. But so are many others considering past 6 month gains. So where do you draw the line before you end up mostly in cash again? But maybe that's not a bad place to be until the fall. Sept I mean. Then I become somewhat of a timer vs my buy and hold philosophy. This is beginning to become too complicated. Back to sitting on my hands I guess. 

Now if only Apple could take off. Or at least give me a div increase to make the wait more tolerable. 

Go C-Jet. We're counting on you. Over and out....


----------



## Celso

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Hope you're having a good time!
> *2.* My lips are sealed.
> *3.* No need. :rolleyes2:
> *4.* My heart is pounding! I was afraid about another potential delay, but I figured that if nothing had been announced prior to the earnings release, that they would not have chosen that date for such a negative announcement, so hopefully that flight will take place, I believe on June 30th, if not, hopefully no later than this summer at least.


I like your point form replies, so much easier to read. 

I'm having a great time, thanks! Will have some Tinto de Verano to your health.

I should be back for the flight tests, but it seems like from the releases that everything is on schedule. Will the success of the test flight be a catalyst for another rise in the stock price? 
The run up so far has been nice. I'm just disapointed i didn't pick up more. But since this is my first stock i decided to keep my position small.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Jets99 said:


> 1. tempting to take some profit.... So where do you draw the line before you end up mostly in cash again?
> 2. Then I become somewhat of a timer vs my buy and hold philosophy.
> 3. Apple could take off. Or at least give me a div increase to make the wait more tolerable.


*1.* What are your goals & risk tolerance? You might want to do some rebalancing at some point considering you're up over 50% in a very short time. For example, if your allocation had been $10K, you would now be above $15K, are you comfortable with that? You don't have to sell all, but you have options, ie: increase your allocation to $20K as an example/reduce it and use profits to invest elsewhere, pay debts, etc., etc.

*2.* When you have time, check out the price chart of the last 10 years, that will explain why many hate the stock.

*3.* You got the increase on May 16th, did you check your account? $3.05 per sh, an increase from the previous $2.65, with a yield nearing 3%. 

*Celso:* Salud with that Tinto de Verano!

As to your question, some of it may already be priced-in, but keep in mind that the stock was trading above the $4 level prior to the 2 delay announcements of the CSeries late in 2012, and also of the Learjet in Feb. of this year, so it's not so much a run up per se, but a recovery from when the stock had oversold.


----------



## kwh

Jets99 said:


> Go C-Jet. We're counting on you. Over and out....


I've come to believe that the prospects for BBD in terms of additional revenue is the CSeries. There has not been much in the way of significant incremental revenue through the railroad division beyond maintenance contracts. And it seemed that the actions of SkyWest choosing EMB and also the island airport expansion issue has weighed down on it. 

I've taken positions in BBD since the fall and have realized a profit, but the aviation sales aspect of the success story stills needs to be happen. I'm more cautious with it now.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The stock hit a 52 week high today, and the company says that they are still on track for the CS100 debut later this month, but no firm date yet, which makes me nervous.


----------



## RParks

This is the only stock in my portfolio that makes me nervous. Nervous probably isn't the best word but the fact of the matter is I'm up 45% and really unsure of an exit point. When I bought the stock $5 was my goal and we're almost there... but I can't help but think there could be even further upside. In the same breath, I'm nervous that it could lose major ground on some bad news.

fear vs greed


----------



## m3s

RParks said:


> I'm nervous that it could lose major ground on some bad news.


Actually even if the news does match expectations.. the popularity of specuvesting "buy on rumour sell on news" can bring the price down in my experience. When speculation is positive on a risky one I'll often sell before the expected news.. The specuvestors carry momentum of good rumours.. and also negative momentum when expectations aren't beat. Sometimes you can take a profit and jump back in while nothing even changed in the underlying at all...


----------



## Oldroe

Selling is the hardest skill and the most important. You made your money!


----------



## Toronto.gal

*RParks:* by nervous, I just meant that I'm excited and want everything to go well for the company. However, should anything make the stock dive again, as it has done numerous times, I would simply buy more! I'm not sure when you bought, but you're likely up by that much because of the very delays that caused the stock to be oversold, so good for you that you recognized good value! The stock now is merely recovering, but there is more to come in the next few years [I hope].

*"Bombardier aims to reveal undisclosed CSeries customers -- of which it has three -- at the Paris show, and is “guardedly optimistic” about announcing new sales there too, Fuller said.
*
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...s-spurred-by-hot-high-africa-credentials.html


----------



## humble_pie

t.gal if i may raise just a note of concern?

it's been years since i believed much of the bombardier fluff.

i think BBD.B is a prominent precious protected jewel in Quebec Inc's federal supporting canada crown. Ottawa wants to have an aerospace industry. Bombardier is & always has been the flagship. The export credits for foreign buyers - which is what all the trade lawsuits are always about - are now & have always been huge.

every other country does the same. Reportedly brazil fosters embraer via R & D credits & export development credits in similar fashion. Hence the counter-lawsuits.

the iron grip held by the beaudoin family via the multiple-voting BBD.A shares is another concern.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Point taken HP.

Indeed there is never a shortage of concerns in the investment world, hence risk management is always key, even for a bargain addicted investor. :wink:

In some ways, the 'The Beaudoin grip' reminds me of the Stronach grip.

At the moment though, I'm just enjoying the ride & success.


----------



## humble_pie

i often worry when companies present strong but ageing patriarchal profiles.

who is running magna now? how do we know that pierre beaudoin will fill his forebears' shoes at bombardier?

look what's happening to barrick as its founder delines ...

EDIT: typo "declines" but i think a new verb "to deline" might suit our texting times. Means he's fading ...


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> .... At the moment though, I'm just enjoying the ride & success.


 ... you should be singing "Fly Me to the Moon" :highly_amused: :encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Yes, the Canadian version needless to say [Diana Krall's].

:saturn: :moon: eaceful:
Fly me to the moon 
Let me swing among those stars
Let me see what spring is like
On Jupiter and Mars

Tu chantes la même chanson, je sais. :tongue-new:

Speaking of test runs, check out JR's super-sleek/speeding bullets, coming in 14 years.

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-06/05/japan-maglev-train-test
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maglev


----------



## MRT

flight delayed until July, stock down ~3.65% this morning...probably just a little hiccup? 

http://www.thestar.com/business/2013/06/26/bombardier_delays_cseries_debut_until_late_july.html


----------



## Toronto.gal

*MRT:* Yes, just a little hiccup for now! And it gave yet another opportunity for adding/starting a position and/or trading [dropping below $4.40 just about 2 weeks ago].

*Beav:* you can ride in high speed as well [in case u're afraid of heights]. :biggrin:

Ciao to the 'Evolution of Mobility', the V300ZEFIRO. Let's remember that BBD.B beat Alstom for this! 

Mythological name, which comes from the Greek Zephyros: the Greek 'god of the west wind' [aka: gentle breeze at 360 km/h]. 

*'The V300ZEFIRO is the fastest train in Europe and is capable of reaching commercial speeds of up to 360 km/h. During test runs the train will reach speeds in excess of 400 km/h. Its advanced high acceleration enables the train to deliver excellent travel times, even on winding routes. It is fully interoperable and will provide cross-border services, taking passengers to other European countries without the need to change trains. It could also be adapted for use on networks in many other countries.'
*
http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-...r-unveilsnewestveryhighspeedtraininitaly.html

http://www.globalrailnews.com/2013/07/08/europes-fastest-train-unveiled-in-italy/


----------



## Beaver101

Bombardier needs to hire you! :encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

LOL, but actually, their Downsview location is less than 5K from me, but nope, I don't need a 3rd job, as not enough hours in a day. :chuncky:


----------



## 1sImage

Back in...

Not as many shares this time.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Up already a quick 14% since the late June fall to $4.37; nearing $5 second time in the last couple of months.

Will there be another delay though?


----------



## 1sImage

Toronto.gal said:


> Up already a quick 14% since the late June fall to $4.37; nearing $5 second time in the last couple of months.
> 
> Will there be another delay though?


You didn't cash out though right?


----------



## Toronto.gal

I meant that the stock is up 14% since mid-June [67% since the stock hit their lowest last Nov.]. 

I do NOT sell my long-term positions, other than for balancing purposes. However, I do cash out of my trading positions.


----------



## ban

Bombardier delayed the maiden flight of its all-new CSeries jetliner for a third time, promising the flight "in the coming weeks"
http://www.4-traders.com/BOMBARDIER...Series-maiden-flight-for-third-time-17123923/


----------



## Toronto.gal

I had almost been sure of this! Stock barely reacted, however.

What's different this time, is that they did not give a more direct target date as b4.


----------



## Beaver101

Smart of the company - don't over promise and un-deliver :wink:


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> I had almost been sure of this!


Me 2  This why some time ago I sold 50% of my holdings booking about 16% gain + dividends. Yes, could've sell later and more expensive, but I was expecting more serious drops when rumour about undelivery on time start


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> 1. booking about 16% gain
> 2. + dividends.
> 3. was expecting more serious drops.....


*1.* Congrats; not bad at all!

*2.* As in cash? I dripped them @$4.536 on July 2nd, so those are up 11% already; oh wait, they were for free, so the return is even higher than the cash. :tongue-new:

*3.* Considering the drop after the 1st delay in early Nov./12 [and what an opportunity that had been], I had been anxious in June also, but instead, it was mostly Bernanke, not the 2nd delay, that made the shares fall last month, from $5 to $4.37. Did you see that coming? :biggrin:

Though shares dropped an initial 3.5% today [from the high of $5.10 yesterday], they are floating above $5 again.


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> As in cash?.


No, I also was DRIPing  I sold 50% shares of initial purchase, DRIPped shares it's like a gift


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> DRIPped shares are like a gift


It takes a seasoned DRIPper like you to know it! :encouragement:


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> It takes a seasoned DRIPper like you to know it! :encouragement:


I DRIP practically everything I can  
btw, gal, do you hold still AAPL?


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> btw, gal, do you hold still AAPL?


*Short answer:* would I give up such a [sustainable] rich dividend do you think?  [for me = over 6%]. 

*Long answer:* did I make a mistake buying the stock/have the fundamentals changed/is it an overvalued stock/did it become a big part of my portfolio? The answer to all = no. 

I could have booked profits, but given my purchase price [ie: not believing they would hit that low], I did not want to touch my long-term position nor decrease my # of shares. As you know, I have other methods of taking advantage of the ups and downs.

Maybe 'Locationary' will now help it find its way once more! :biggrin: 

To stay on topic, for BBD.B, however, the answer to the last question is yes, so I have re-balanced accordingly.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Some stocks make you smile [at least until July 31st]. :encouragement:

*Upcoming Events:*
http://ir.bombardier.com/en/event-calendar


----------



## Beaver101

BBD is flying to the :moon: atm ... :biggrin: what's the next stop? :saturn: ?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Beaver101 said:


> what's the next stop? :saturn: ?


IDK, but we might have a better idea later in the week. :star:

Latest news is that the company won a contract for a transit system in Saudi Arabia, worth close to $400M.

Btw, was Logan/Wolverine flying on the 'Born to Lead Learjet 85'? I thought so. :biggrin:

While we wait for Q2, here is a review of Q1:

- Revenues = $4.3 billion 
- EBIT = $240 million
- Adjusted net income = $156 million
- Adjusted earnings per share = $0.08
- Free cash flow usage = $590 million
- Available short-term capital resources = $5.1 billion
- *Backlog of $63.0 billion as at March 31, 2013*


----------



## Toronto.gal

*Q2:*

- Revenues = $4.4 billion [compared to $4.1 billion last fiscal year]
- EBIT = $288 million [compared to $214 million last fiscal year]
- Adjusted net income = $158 million [compared to $167 million last fiscal year]
- Adjusted EPS of $0.09 [same as last fiscal year]
- Free cash flow usage = $566 million [compared to a usage of $608 million last fiscal year]
- Available short-term capital resources of $4.5 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of $3.1 billion as at June 30, 2013 [compared to $4.0 billion and $2.6 billion respectively, as at December 31, 2012]
- *Record backlog of $65.5 billion as at June 30, 2013 *[compared to $64.9 billion as at December 31, 2012]


----------



## Toronto.gal

Any of the brave 3-4 BBD.B investors here took advantage of the recent 12% drop [$4.57] since the high of $5.18 on July 30th?

http://ir.bombardier.com/en/share-price

*'The amended schedule, oddly dated Aug. 22, 2013, or this Thursday, also implicitly appears to assume that the CSeries airliner’s maiden flight will come within the next 11 days, as flight coverage begins this month.'*
http://www.montrealgazette.com/busi...ght+testing+CSeries+months/8808274/story.html

Didn't quite understand that 11 day calculation, but we shall see.


----------



## 6811

Toronto.gal said:


> Any of the brave 3-4 BBD.B investors here took advantage of the recent 12% drop [$4.57] since the high of $5.18 on July 30th?
> 
> http://ir.bombardier.com/en/share-price
> 
> *'The amended schedule, oddly dated Aug. 22, 2013, or this Thursday, also implicitly appears to assume that the CSeries airliner’s maiden flight will come within the next 11 days, as flight coverage begins this month.'*
> http://www.montrealgazette.com/busi...ght+testing+CSeries+months/8808274/story.html
> 
> Didn't quite understand that 11 day calculation, but we shall see.


No, not yet, but it's been bothering me. :torn:


----------



## Beaver101

Why is it bothering you? Or don't just stand there, do something .... :biggrin: (kidding!)


----------



## 6811

I am doing something. Procrastinating!


----------



## Beaver101

Good one, LOL! Cheers, :smilet-digitalpoint


----------



## Toronto.gal

6811 said:


> Procrastinating!


Aka: snooze & lose. BUT patience is virtue, AND very, very important 2 not 4get.


----------



## Dibs

Still no C-Series jets in the air, but BBD.B is up around 5% today on this news:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...wner-places-18-billion-order/article14120226/


----------



## Toronto.gal

*Dibs:* thanks for filling in for me yesterday, and keeping the thread up to date. :encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

OMG, when will conditions be perfect already. Come on Mirabel breeze & sunshine, hurry up; go away buttermilk sky/fog/rain!

*'Bombardier targets first CSeries flight for early next week after bad weather hampers tests.'*

All we ask for is: 'a picture-perfect blue ceiling and winds of less than 10 knots an hour to clear the way for the takeoff.'


----------



## Celso

Toronto.gal said:


> OMG, when will conditions be perfect already. Come on Mirabel breeze & sunshine, hurry up; go away buttermilk sky/fog/rain!
> 
> *'Bombardier targets first CSeries flight for early next week after bad weather hampers tests.'*
> 
> All we ask for is: 'a picture-perfect blue ceiling and winds of less than 10 knots an hour to clear the way for the takeoff.'


Well it´s about time.

Lot´s of good news for BBD lately but this is what i´ve been waiting for. Shall the stock take flight as well? Stay tuned...


----------



## Celso

http://www.montrealgazette.com/CSeries+take+flight+Monday/8910322/story.html


----------



## MRT

fingers crossed! 

A G&M article from last month also noted that Air Canada is intending to replace over 100 jets, and is considering the C-series. A rep indicated that they intend to make a decision on the replacements before year-end. It would be a nice Christmas present to have a healthy order from AC!


----------



## Dibs

The plane is in the air!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Indeed! 

It lifted off the runway at 9:54 a.m, and the stock dropped to $4.92 shortly thereafter [typical BBD.B style]. 

Quelle incroyable excitation & fierté!

Mon cœur bat si vite que je peux l'écouter, LOL. 

'The CSeries’s first flight is a historic moment in Canadian aerospace that has been almost a decade in the making.'

I truly hope that all goes as expected, including the landing! 
http://cseriesfirstflight.bombardier.com/

*Edit:* and it landed safely at 12:25!

*“The performance of the CSeries aircraft was very impressive! We couldn’t have wished for a better maiden flight,” said Capt. Ellis. “FTV1’s state-of-the-art flight deck was responsive and comfortable, and the aircraft handled exactly as expected. Overall, we had a very productive first flight and an excellent start to the flight test program.”
*
Félicitations BBD.B.

Now I want the stock to lift off.


----------



## MRT

good news! But first, I want the stock to take a mini dive so that I can buy more 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bombardier-cseries-jet-completes-maiden-flight-1.1855731


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> Now I want the stock to lift off.


Didn't have time to check during the day and was surprised to see it dropped  What happened?


----------



## 1sImage

Wait till the orders start rolling in.... Today was just the beginning!!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

1sImage said:


> Wait till the orders start rolling in....


Very slowly, but hopefully unstoppably also.

Though the market direction/reaction last month, following the successful CSeries maiden voyage was surprising [or maybe not due to delays/higher cost, etc.], and despite being overweight already, I did not hesitate to add @ the early October lows. 

*Bombardier Discloses CDB Leasing Co., Ltd. of China as a Customer for up to 30 CSeries Aircraft*
http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-...31018_bombardierdisclosescdbleasingcoltd.html


----------



## Asterix

Didn't have the cash when the price was below $5.00 earlier this month, is now still a good entry point? I've been keeping an eye on BBD for a while. What do you all think?


----------



## Beaver101

Today's high of $5.43 is still cheaper than $6.35 as "estimated" by one brokerage analyst but more than $5 high of last month. 

Disclaimer: Do your due diligence and don't buy with your rent/grocery money. :biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

6811 said:


> I am doing something. Procrastinating!


No change since August? :chuncky:


----------



## 6811

Toronto.gal said:


> No change since August? :chuncky:


No change since August. I currently have 4000 shares bought in February, March, April and June at an average cost of 4.49. This is already more risk on one stock than I normally allow myself, which was part of my procrastinating in August when I was also looking to increase my holdings in FTS, MKP, and POT while they were lower (MKP and POT are still down). As of today I'm up about $3400 on BBD.A and I'm not complaining. (Who'd have thought POT would take a 20%+ dive at the end of July.)


----------



## Toronto.gal

6811 said:


> *1.* I currently have 4000 shares bought in February, March, April and June at an average cost of 4.49....*As of today I'm up about $3400 *
> *2.* This is already more risk on one stock than I normally allow myself, which was part of my procrastinating in August
> *3.* (Who'd have thought POT would take a 20%+ dive at the end of July.)


*1. *That is fantastic, considering you just purchased earlier this year. YTD = 41.7% & you're 1/2 way there. As BBD.B isn't a new company out there, to me, it was a no-brainer to add, especially after it fell below $3 late last year due to the 1st CSeries delay, which I viewed it as a massive opportunity back then, and stock is now 80% in 11 months. I also saw the successful flight as an opportunity to add/trade. However, it's easy to understand why not many love the stock, as it hasn't gone anywhere in the last several years, so hopefully that will change, but it will take time. 

*2.* Given the above mentioned, you did not 'procrastinate' at all then. What is your exit strategy? I have no plans selling my long-term positions anytime soon, just DRIPping/trading it.

*3.* Though not as shocking, same could be said for BBD.B, only worse as it dropped from near $5 to $2.97 last year, so closer to -40%.


----------



## 6811

> 1. That is fantastic, considering you just purchased earlier this year. YTD = 41.7% & you're 1/2 way there. As BBD.B isn't a new company out there, to me, it was a no-brainer to add, especially after it fell below $3 late last year due to the 1st CSeries delay, which I viewed it as a massive opportunity back then, and stock is now 80% in 11 months. I also saw the successful flight as an opportunity to add/trade. However, it's easy to understand why not many love the stock, as it hasn't gone anywhere in the last several years, so hopefully that will change, but it will take time.
> 
> 2. Given the above mentioned, you did not 'procrastinate' at all then. What is your exit strategy? I have no plans selling my long-term positions anytime soon, just DRIPping/trading it.
> 
> 3. Though not as shocking, same could be said for BBD.B, only worse as it dropped from near $5 to $2.97 last year, so closer to -40%.



1. Agree. 
2. The procrastination came in putting off whether to buy more BBD.A; buy more MKP, POT, or FTS on their dip; or add the cash to my couch potato portfolio. I finally went with the couch potato (VUN/VCE) option in early September, as it seemed safest in my mind (though I am only up about 3% on those buys  ). I plan to hold BBD indefinitely and really curious to see where it will be in a few years.
3. Prior to this year I was mainly a couch potato ETF investor with only a couple of individual stocks. Thought I'd get more involved this year, now that I'm retired, and put about 10% of my portfolio into direct stocks (somehow it's grown to about 23% but I plan to shed some bank and telecoms that have done well).


----------



## underemployedactor

6811, are you looking to buy the A shares, or is that a typo? they are not nearly as liquid as the B shares and I think your last name might have to be Bombardier to get hold of any.


----------



## 6811

underemployedactor said:


> 6811, are you looking to buy the A shares, or is that a typo? they are not nearly as liquid as the B shares and I think your last name might have to be Bombardier to get hold of any.


It's the BBD.A ones that I own (BOMBARDIER INC-CL A MULTIPLE VTG CV BBD.A) in my i*Trade accounts. I didn't realise there were any major differences between A and B but now see that A has 314.5M shares outstanding VS 1.44B for B.

My good Scot's name could not be mistaken for Bombardier


----------



## underemployedactor

Certain investors don't like dual share structures as they feel it puts too much influence in the hands of a priveliged few, which is certainly the case with Bombardier. the family owns 80% of the A shares and 54% of the total common shares I think. The A shares have a 10 to 1 voting advantage over the B shares, but as a retail investor I'm pretty sure you would want to be in the B shares, but you should look into this further. Others may know more of the details on this. To put this as delicately as possible, it's very important to do your due diligence before committing close to 20k into any individual stock.


----------



## Dibs

I trimmed my position today at $5.35. My ACB is around $4.61. If it dips below $4.80 I might buy back again.


----------



## ban

http://business.financialpost.com/2...misses-expectations-as-aerospace-disappoints/
Looks like good buying opportunity...


----------



## Toronto.gal

Dibs said:


> I trimmed my position today at $5.35.


Well done!

Earnings fell just shy of expectations [$.9 cents a share vs. the expected $.10 cents], and as usual, the overreaction! Needless to say, I had a great trade early this a.m., and already used the profits wisely in same stock!

However, more disappointing than the above mentioned, was the lack of update with respect to CSeries delivery, now widely believed to be no earlier than 2015. This was disappointing, but not surprising in the least.

http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-...ier-inc-20131031q32013financialresultsen.html


----------



## Toronto.gal

Good news for Bombardier, even when their rival got higher orders. 

'The value of the Bombardier order could rise to about $3.38-billion if American converts options on an additional 40 of the planes.'
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-american-airlines-jet-deals/article15909507/

And hopefully orders will keep coming from China.
http://ir.bombardier.com/en/press-r...tter-of-intent-for-30-q400-nextgen-turboprops


----------



## humble_pie

speaking of scots here's a dour opinion:

- C series orders are slow coming in;

- this company has always been heavily subsidized by ottawa;

- canada has got to have an aerospace industry & bombardier like it or not has been anointed;

- company is a foundation block of the pro-federal vote in this here uppity province regardless of whether the PCs or the liberals are in power;

- bombardier could be manufacturing flying egg-beaters but still the federal gravy train would roll on.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> - C series orders are *slow* coming in;


That has been disappointing, but is it surprising for a new plane? The picture should be clearer on this in another couple of years.


----------



## underemployedactor

I must admit a certain affinity for this company. You get the glamour of the jet series along with the boring bread and butter of the train division. If the C series gets its act together and creates a huge buzz at the Farnborough air show, then it could double from here. If one crashes and kills a pilot expect a $2 share price. So I like the sturm und drang volatility that the aircraft division brings. That for me has always been somewhat balanced by the predictability and utility like nature of the train division. What worries me currently is that the train division seems to be faltering and mired in "execution issues". If you've been building rolling stock for 50 years and now you have "execution issues" then you've got me a little worried.


----------



## Dibs

Good news and bad news. Looks like the bad news is winning today. 

Bombardier, Saudi Gulf sign deal for 16 CSeries jets. CSeries jets won't be ready for service until second half of 2015


----------



## Toronto.gal

Q1-2015 was the date most were predicting for some time, so what's another Q delay? 

Any bad news is good news for moi.


----------



## Nemo2

Bought some more @ $4.20


----------



## MRT

sometimes it is nice to wake up to 'bad news'!

more @ $4.15


----------



## Canuck

I'm in at $4.15


----------



## gibor365

TORONTO, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Bombardier Inc , the Canadian plane and train maker, said on Tuesday it plans to lay off 1,700 employees from its aerospace division, primarily in the Montreal area.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Now at $4.04. Seems like a screaming deal but hard to ignore this list of most recent bad news:

Bombardier Inc cutting 1700 employees from its aerospace division
Financial Post - 56 minutes ago
Bombardier Inc delays delivery of CSeries aircraft by almost a year
The Province - Jan 16, 2014
Bombardier CSeries deliveries may be delayed
Montreal Gazette - Jan 9, 2014
Bombardier ends 2013 with good and bad news
Ottawa Citizen - Dec 31, 2013
Bombardier lays off 300 Learjet employees in US for two weeks
Montreal Gazette - Jan 6, 2014


----------



## Toronto.gal

There has been good and bad news, as expected. 

In the aerospace division, 'it delivered 238 aircraft during 2013, compared to 233 aircraft deliveries in the previous calendar year ended December 31, 2012. The company also received orders for 388 aircraft, net of cancellations, compared to 481 orders, net of cancellations, for the previous year.'

On the transportation side, it just won this month a railway contract in Australia + others.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ns-qld-contract/story-fn91v9q3-1226805405308#

Based on market forecast for aerospace & transportation, my eyes are on 2021! But hopefully things will start looking better by 2016/17.


----------



## gibor365

I bought BBD.B about year or so for $3.95, sold half position in summer for$3.61, started to buy more today 1st trenche 4.05, 2nd - 4.02 ...will buy more if drops more 
At least it's yielding now more than 2.5%


----------



## Beaver101

Are you sure it's not the other way around that you sold for more than you bought it for? :confused2:


----------



## gibor365

Beaver101 said:


> Are you sure it's not the other way around that you sold for more than you bought it for? :confused2:


Oh....sorry, my mistake, sold for 4.61


----------



## Beaver101

No problemo, didn't think you would sold for a loss ... a $1 per share loss is a big difference too. Cheers,


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> 1. 1st trenche 4.05, 2nd - 4.02
> 2. At least it's yielding now more than 2.5%


*1.* Those are good trAnches from the trEnches. :biggrin: 
*2.* I would not count on the dividend, but so far, very happy with all the shares my DRIPs have purchased! 

Did you fly to Cancún in a BBD.B business aircraft?


----------



## Beaver101

I'm in too at $4.00 and now it is $3.99 and dropping ... sigh. This thing better get off the ground again at least in the spring (of this year)!


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Those are good trAnches from the trEnches. :biggrin:
> *2.* I would not count on the dividend, but so far, very happy with all the shares my DRIPs have purchased!
> 
> Did you fly to Cancún in a BBD.B business aircraft?


I'm DRIPing it too  
We flew to Cancun in Air Canada....


----------



## SkyFall

I think imma get in at this low point...


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> We flew to Cancun in Air Canada....


I had been kidding.

Seems you sold your shares before the CSeries' first flight in Sept. [you were afraid?]. 

The stock did hit a high of $5.43 about a month after the successful maiden voyage [or about +40% since you purchased]. At any rate, you made 17% with 1/2 your shares, which is not bad at all, and continued to drip with the other 1/2, and now picking the shares you sold for nearly same price.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Stock ended at 3.95 yesterday so I set a limit order for 3.88 and the order has already been filled. Stock now at 3.83. A friend pointed out this is a risky stock. I tend to agree.


----------



## Dibs

I added some shares today at $3.83.


----------



## gibor365

Yes T.gal, I was kinda cautios , so sold not all , but half.
Added 3rd and for now last trenche 3.83.
Hope the bottom is new this price, in any case this company won't dissappear, dividends looks good covered and will be passionatly waiting for rebound and DRIPing shares


----------



## blin10

markets 52 week high, this thing is 52week low, what will happen when markets turn and go down ?


----------



## fatcat

gal, why do you like bbd ?
is this a trade for you a long term hold ?


----------



## gibor365

blin10 said:


> markets 52 week high, this thing is 52week low, what will happen when markets turn and go down ?


than maybe BBD.B will go down less than markets


----------



## Nemo2

gibor said:


> than maybe BBD.B will go down less than markets


Or will be waiting for them at the bottom with a nice mug of hot soup. :biggrin:


----------



## underemployedactor

fatcat said:


> gal, why do you like bbd ?


There's over 20 pages on this thread with reams of posts from Tgal giving her (I assume it's a her) various and many reasons for owning this company, including pretty much an entire history of Bombardier complete with photos of early snow mobiles. If there is not enough info upthread to clue you in on TGal's thought processes on this stock over the last two years, then I don't know what to tell you.


----------



## blin10

not sure why this is a popular stock, I don't touch anything that has anything to do with planes...


----------



## Beaver101

But they also make ski-doos - don't you like those? And trains too ... man, this one is the last "Canadian" aerospace company (unions, problems, etc. not withstanding).


----------



## none

Looks like the union is actually reasonable. Check out this crayzay: http://bothways712.5u.com/


----------



## Toronto.gal

underemployedactor said:


> There's over 20 pages on this thread with reams of posts from Tgal giving her (I assume it's a her) various and many reasons for owning this company, including pretty much an entire history of Bombardier complete with photos of early snow mobiles. If there is not enough info upthread to clue you in on TGal's thought processes on this stock over the last two years, then I don't know what to tell you.


What underemployedactor said. And yes, I'm a gal. 

I have admired this company [not share price] for a looooooooong time!

2 answer your question *fatcat,*, it's a very long-term hold for me, but also add on days like today/drip it/and of course trade it, too, and for obvious reasons I do the latter; just look at the price chart of the last decade?! 

Bombardier is the world’s only manufacturer of both planes and trains, and I believe the company will reverse the performance of the last 10 years. For me, it's about vision 2020 & beyond, and see little not to like, especially once the economy recovers. At that point, this stock will make me very rich [or poor]. 

I also believe that the CSeries will be successful, as why would such a plane, after all that we have learnt about it, ie: that is the top in its class, etc., etc., not sell? This is a very competitive business and nothing happens overnight. Also, growth in key aviation & transportation markets will only increase, and in turn, will bolster the company's sales, not to mention its presence in new important regions. 

BBD.B has received numerous contracts and all kinds of long-term collaboration agreements with several important countries.

It's the MFC of the aerospace/transportation sector.  I could go on, but I said enough, lol.


----------



## gibor365

Also, BBD.B is heavily subsidized by federal/provincial government as it's kinda "calling card" of QC and Canada


----------



## humble_pie

it's a white elephant fed & stroked by ottawa. Don't we keep hearing rumours that management explicitly instructs bbd.b employees to vote liberal red in federal elections?


----------



## none

I really doubt it as that would be illegal.


----------



## HaroldCrump

none said:


> I really doubt it as that would be illegal.


You must be joking....the unions routinely ask their members to vote for certain parties.
During the 2011 Ontairo provincial elections, the Teachers Union was telling all its members not to vote for Tim Hudak's PC party.
They didn't even bother being secretive about it...


----------



## none

You mean they tell their unions that a certain party would be most beneficial to their members? What's wrong with that? That's on par with what everyone does?

That's a BIG difference between 'instructs' as you put it.


----------



## gibor365

none said:


> You mean they tell their unions that a certain party would be most beneficial to their members? What's wrong with that? That's on par with what everyone does?
> 
> That's a BIG difference between 'instructs' as you put it.


Steel factories unions in Hamilton area "instruct" worker to vote for marksist-leninist party


----------



## HaroldCrump

none said:


> You mean they tell their unions that a certain party would be most beneficial to their members? What's wrong with that? That's on par with what everyone does?


Who everyone else?
Unions instruct their members to vote for a certain party, or not vote for a certain party.



> That's a BIG difference between 'instructs' as you put it.


What difference?
Do you tell your neighbors who to vote for?
Do you tell your co-workers who to vote for?
Do you tell your spouse who to vote for?


----------



## none

ending the hijack.


----------



## Nemo2

none said:


> ending the hijack.


I'm sorry...closed shop....you have to be a member of the Hijackers Union.


----------



## Toronto.gal

the-royal-mail said:


> Stock ended at 3.95 yesterday so I set a limit order for 3.88 and the order has already been filled. *Stock now at 3.83.* A friend pointed out this is a risky stock. I tend to agree.


Day's range = $3.81/$3.95. What does that tell you aside from risk?


----------



## Toronto.gal

blin10 said:


> markets 52 week high *this thing is 52 week low*, what will happen when markets turn and go down ?


If you want to talk about 52 weeks, don't just look at Jan.2013 lows, nor ignore what took place during the rest of the year.

- the stock started Jan./2013 @ $3.81
- reached a high of $5.43 by Oct./2013
- closed the year @ *$4.62.*

So anyone buying/trading a year ago, would have done well. From low to high = + 43%. If you made even 1/2 of that in the stock last year, what would you say now? 

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=BBD-B.TO&a=00&b=2&c=2013&d=11&e=24&f=2013&g=d&z=66&y=0

Last year, the company reached an impressive milestone! The brand new CSeries was neither an overnight nor cheap project, but one in the making for a decade+; and why I'm focusing in the next decade. The extensive testing phases, also don't come quick or cheap. 

Much better to have delays than something far worse.


----------



## fatcat

Toronto.gal said:


> What underemployedactor said. And yes, I'm a gal.
> 
> I have admired this company [not share price] for a looooooooong time!
> 
> 2 answer your question *fatcat,*, it's a very long-term hold for me, but also add on days like today/drip it/and of course trade it, too, and for obvious reasons I do the latter; just look at the price chart of the last decade?!
> 
> Bombardier is the world’s only manufacturer of both planes and trains, and I believe the company will reverse the performance of the last 10 years. For me, it's about vision 2020 & beyond, and see little not to like, especially once the economy recovers. At that point, this stock will make me very rich [or poor].
> 
> I also believe that the CSeries will be successful, as why would such a plane, after all that we have learnt about it, ie: that is the top in its class, etc., etc., not sell? This is a very competitive business and nothing happens overnight. Also, growth in key aviation & transportation markets will only increase, and in turn, will bolster the company's sales, not to mention its presence in new important regions.
> 
> BBD.B has received numerous contracts and all kinds of long-term collaboration agreements with several important countries.
> 
> It's the MFC of the aerospace/transportation sector.  I could go on, but I said enough, lol.


thanks for that answer gal, they are on my list ... i was going to just stay with CNR but industrials are a good sector right now i think


----------



## underemployedactor

blin10 said:


> not sure why this is a popular stock, I don't touch anything that has anything to do with planes...


Good thing you stayed away from Air Canada. You saved yourself a 500% gain:encouragement:


----------



## Dom

underemployedactor said:


> Good thing you stayed away from Air Canada. You saved yourself a 500% gain:encouragement:


Lol that was cold....


----------



## blin10

underemployedactor said:


> Good thing you stayed away from Air Canada. You saved yourself a 500% gain:encouragement:


right, like you can time the market and pick it up at exactly $2, not to mention you still would be down 50% since 2007


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ It's not impossible to pick the lows/highs [not lowest/highest], but even if you had picked it at $5/6/7, it would not have been a bad deal. 

About the 2007 comment, many companies/investors have not recovered to those levels yet, nor will they for some time to come, especially if the latter did not take advantage of the lows of 08/09, and even later.


----------



## Westerly

Who's buying more of this? I'm in now at 4.13 and 4.00. I'm tempted to add again but think it will be 6 months to a year before I know whether I timed it right, or wrong...I seem to be on the wrong side of the moon these days buying 1 day ahead of more bad news.


----------



## Beaver101

> *Westerly*... I seem to be on the wrong side of the moon these days buying 1 day ahead of more bad news.


 .. you got company and not alone. Have faith - see Toronto.gal's numerous posts, the thing is going fly back up. Cheers,


----------



## Toronto.gal

Westerly said:


> I'm in now at 4.13 and 4.00...buying 1 day ahead of more bad news.


If you're so concerned, then you might want to wait to see what happens after Q4/fiscal year report on Feb.13th.


----------



## Westerly

Not so concerned, just wishin i'd waited out the air turbulence


----------



## none

Now you guys are getting me all interested in picking up some Bombardier..... this makes sad potato.


----------



## gibor365

Westerly said:


> Who's buying more of this? I'm in now at 4.13 and 4.00. I'm tempted to add again but think it will be 6 months to a year before I know whether I timed it right, or wrong...I seem to be on the wrong side of the moon these days buying 1 day ahead of more bad news.


and for this period just think that you bought GIC with 2.5% interest (BBD.B yield)


----------



## Dibs

gibor said:


> and for this period just think that you bought GIC with 2.5% interest (BBD.B yield)


There is significantly more risk in BBD.B than a GIC!


----------



## Beaver101

Correct ... and no risk, no reward. Warning: buy at your own risk. :biggrin:


----------



## Westerly

3.84. Where's my cookie


----------



## MRT

Thunder Bay Bombardier plant to produce 65 Go Transit cars

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thund...plant-to-produce-65-go-transit-cars-1.2509793


----------



## PatInTheHat

I' m stuck in this one for a small position around $4.50. Going to ride it out.


----------



## Beaver101

Westerly said:


> 3.84. Where's my cookie


 ... why settle for a cookie when you can get the cake (profits & dividends)? each:


----------



## Synergy

Considering a small position if it drops a little further. Still regret selling my 2 stroke Seadoo (Rx Millennium Edition) a few yrs ago, darn those little things where fast! Perhaps I should put my proceeds into BBD.B


----------



## underemployedactor

As I mentioned upthread, I still think the rail division is worth between 3 and 4 bucks alone. If BBD gets down to 3.50, I'll probably rebuy in anticipation of a good showing at the Farnborough airshow in july. Except for the inevitable delays, I haven't heard of any major problems or design flaws with the C series, has anyone else?


----------



## SkyFall

I bought some at $3.92 with the drop that happened in the markets last week, if it keep dropping imma average down and buy more


----------



## Dibs

There was an interesting article about Bombardier in Le Devoir this Saturday, I've translated some points:

"Le vol plané de Bombardier"



> Operating expenses in 2006 was 308 million. In 2012 it was 2.1 billion or 175 million a month. 2 billion a year compared to revenues is very high (around 15-20%) compared to Embraer or Boeing (around 5%), according to Benoit Poirier, an analyst at Desjardins.
> The CSeries currently has 198 firm orders, and aims to have 300 for 2015. They need 800 orders to for the project to become profitable.
> From 2006 to 2012, the number of employees in the aeronautics division went from 26800 to 35500 or a 32% increase. The recent 1700 layoffs were mostly temporary posts or contract positions.
> Institutional investors and credit agencies were concerned that BBD might issue stock or bonds to cover their expenses. In order for that not to occur, BBD needs to reduce costs, minimize investment expenses and increase profit margins in order to increase cash flow.


----------



## Homerhomer

Started small position today, if goes below 3.50 will add more.


----------



## Toronto.gal

^^ ERJ has entered a decade that BBD.D has just about completed as far as cash burn is concerned.

Even when the CSeries has been delayed by a year+, ERJ's newer generation jets won't enter service for another few years, and as we know, delays are nothing new to any name out there.

*'Embraer estimates its total investments on the new E-Jets E2 models to be US$ 1.7 billion over the next eight years.'* 
http://www.embraer.com.br/en-US/Imp...raer-lanca-E2-a-segunda-geracao-de-EJets.aspx

BBD.B delays are estimated to have cost an extra $200M to $300M, but we should learn the actual amount next month.

This space has always been, and will always be a dogfight, so stocks are not for the faint of heart nor the impatient types.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Well this was fun. I bought this thing for $3.885 on Jan 23 and just sold for $4.00, or a cool 2.96% profit on the purchase in just under two weeks. Anyone else who bought at the low may want to sell now and grab some profits.


----------



## Beaver101

Guessed you used your fun (aka gambling) money for this .. congrats on the profits. I'm waiting for spring for a bigger profit (it better). :chuncky:


----------



## Toronto.gal

the-royal-mail said:


> 1. cool 2.96% profit on the purchase in just under two weeks.
> 2. Anyone else who bought at the low may want to sell now and grab some profits.


*1.* Oh, but I thought you said that CHORUS AVIATION was less drama.  

["CHR-B.TO seems to have some decent dividends (11.63% PA) and news, far less drama than with BBD right now and a fairly stable stock price..."]

A profit is a profit! 

*2.* The low is still very low, so the upside is considerable, so to answer the question, no, I did not sell what I purchased recently, not even the trading tranche.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Good catch. For disclosure, yes, this was just play money in my DI practice account. I was just goofing around to see if I could make a bit of quick money with this. I was going to do the same thing when Rogers Sugar was at $5.07. Good thing I didn't do that. I was just lucky on BBD of course. Could have just as easily tanked. But it was a fun practice.


----------



## Toronto.gal

the-royal-mail said:


> 1. Good catch
> 2. Could have just as easily tanked. But it was a fun practice.


*1.* :biggrin: 
*2. * But it did plummet [from $4.52 in Jan./u purchased @ $3.885, so what % drop was that?], hence the reason u purchased, wasn't that the whole exercise? 

But iff you're gonna have just fun practice, might as well do it with a decent stock.


----------



## Westerly

I'm back at B/E and thinking about selling half. Why did I buy it? I always wanted a Skidoo 

Sold my DCA at 4.10. I wouldn't sell but was overweight on it. I'll hold the remainder hopefully through next year.


----------



## jacofan

man, back down to the 3.50's, not sure I want to get back into this one....someone mentioned earlier that the delays reminded them of Blackberry, don't think its thaaaat bad but I may stay away from them...


----------



## Homerhomer

I have added a bit more today.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Another opportunity. 

Purchases made last month, for trading purposes, was sold earlier this week [because of earnings], for about 10% profit, and today, those same profits are going back to same stock! 

Additions made last month to existing long-term positions = buy/hold.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Yep great time to buy. High 5 to those who sold when this was in the 4-10s a few days ago. Bad news yesterday hit them hard.


----------



## Westerly

I'm back in on last week's sales as well, only this time in my TFSA.


----------



## hboy43

What the hell, another 4000 @ 3.61.

hboy43


----------



## JordoR

Bought in at 3.55, happy with the price


----------



## Synergy

Purchased some shares for my TFSA this morning. Glad I held off until earnings release.


----------



## gibor365

the-royal-mail said:


> Yep great time to buy. High 5 to those who sold when this was in the 4-10s a few days ago. Bad news yesterday hit them hard.


I'm bad in market timing....so added a little bit more....3.60


----------



## SkyFall

nice drop time to buy more yay!!!!!!!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> I'm bad in market timing....


Given all the negative news lately, in this case, it was relatively easy to have guessed the results of Q4.

Having said that, same could have been said for ABX, yet stock is up 3.5%. :rolleyes2:

The record combined backlog now stands @ $70B [$64.9B at end of 2012]. New orders in 2014 = $5B.

Div. yield now nearing 3%, which should DRIP considerably more shares next month than last Q.


----------



## CPA Candidate

I'm not trying to bash, but BBD offers the return of a GIC with the risk of equity. I look at 5 and 10 year charts of this company and wonder why investors never learn. The only thing the stock offers is perhaps some trading opportunities but as a true investment it is a disaster for shareholders.


----------



## hboy43

CPA Candidate said:


> I'm not trying to bash, but BBD offers the return of a GIC with the risk of equity. I look at 5 and 10 year charts of this company and wonder why investors never learn. The only thing the stock offers is perhaps some trading opportunities but as a true investment it is a disaster for shareholders.


How do you know it has the return of a GIC? You know the future price at which I or anyone else will sell it at? Oh you mean yield of a GIC.

hboy43


----------



## Toronto.gal

CPA Candidate said:


> 1. perhaps some trading opportunities
> 2. look at 5 and 10 year charts of this company....


*1.* Perhaps?! I thought you looked at the charts. 

*2.* In the '5 year chart', there were plenty of opportunities to have bought very cheap as well as have booked solid profits. Stock recovered over 80% in less than a year from the low of $2.97 in Nov./2012 to the Oct. 2013 high of $5.43. 

I did not own the stock before that period, but definitely the chart of the last 10+ years has been horrendous, but does it mean that the next 10/20 will be same, and that the stock will never get to where it was in the late 90's? 

Today, I purchased more shares, and over 500 of those, were purchased with that 10% profit I booked in less than a month.


----------



## acesta55

freshjiive said:


> It jumped today by 5%
> Im content for now lol


we all a very good experience with bbd.we know it will go as far of 5or5.50 from past experience if 
you are willing to hold it for a wile


----------



## Electric

Wage freeze for all employees announced today. Next logical step is to cut the dividend.


----------



## Islandguy

Just picked up 850 shares at $3.59. 
Hoping this guy will jump back up to $5 so I can unload it! Otherwise, I'm planning to hold longer-term and wait until these orders start coming in.


----------



## MRT

I picked up a little more today at 3.59 as well - in for the long haul.

BBD apparently had a wage and hiring freeze in place last year at this time (http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/21/bombardier-ceo-urges-investors-to-take-the-long-view/) and the dividend has remained the same since July 2008. Is there a genuine fear of it being cut now?


----------



## Beaver101

Looks like you have your own answer if you re-phrase the question - would it matter if the dividend gets cut if one is in it for the long haul? No one here knows (other than BBD executives) if the dividend gets cut or not.


----------



## Synergy

Nice little bump in the stock price today. Any new news?


----------



## Electric

MRT said:


> BBD apparently had a wage and hiring freeze in place last year at this time (http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/21/bombardier-ceo-urges-investors-to-take-the-long-view/) and the dividend has remained the same since July 2008. Is there a genuine fear of it being cut now?


The recent announcement is a wage freeze on both the train and plane sides of the business. That is unprecedented. What they did not cancel was the generous bonuses to the management team.

Beaudoin has bet the company on the C-Series. Tellier told the family not to do it, and they fired him for it. If the CS is not a success, there may not be a Bombardier as we know it, because they won't be able to service the debt that they have accumulated to fund CS development.

I would only be making bets on BBD with money I could afford to lose.

That said, the federal government loves to give money to Bombardier because it is a subsidy to Quebec. The separatists are building a head of steam right now, and you could expect the feds to start pumping money into that province. Also, Bombardier is one of a declining number of large scale manufacturers that export goods to international markets - it is a very precious asset to the country, which has seen manufacturing hollowed out over the past 15 years.


----------



## yyz

The 3rd C Series test aircraft also started flying this past week.


----------



## Synergy

^ Thank you! Looking forward to see it cross the $4 mark and beyond ;o)


----------



## lostwords

Synergy said:


> ^ Thank you! Looking forward to see it cross the $4 mark and beyond ;o)


+1. I got in at 3.60


----------



## Baingar

Got in on the dip with average about 3.64 right now. Looking to hold until mid May to early June


----------



## off.by.10

Synergy said:


> Nice little bump in the stock price today. Any new news?


For anyone still wondering, I think that was the trade agreement with Korea. The aerospace industry appears fairly happy about it.


----------



## Synergy

off.by.10 said:


> For anyone still wondering, I think that was the trade agreement with Korea. The aerospace industry appears fairly happy about it.


This? - "Bombardier wins part of South African rail contract"

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/3/17/Bombardier-wins-part-of-South-African-rail-contract.aspx


----------



## gibor365

_For anyone still wondering, I think that was the trade agreement with Korea. The aerospace industry appears fairly happy about it._

_This? - "Bombardier wins part of South African rail contract"

_

Sorry guys, but Korea is not exactly in South Africa


----------



## off.by.10

Sorry I wasn't clear, that was about the increase on the 10th. Not that I'm complaining about today's bump


----------



## hboy43

Hi:

Ah, Mr. Market you are fickle. About a month ago, BBD was making planes, bringing in a new plane late, and making railway cars and engines, and some lucky sod picked up shares as low as $3.44 IIRC. Today, BBD is making planes, bringing in a new plane late, and making railway cars and engines and is trading around $4.10.

To quote the commercial for a forgettable product (laundry soap?) "Do you see a difference. I don't see a difference".

hboy43


----------



## Westerly

I see a difference in my account  Sold my $3.58 DCA at $4, back in the money on the rest.


----------



## Homerhomer

gibor said:


> _For anyone still wondering, I think that was the trade agreement with Korea. The aerospace industry appears fairly happy about it._
> 
> _This? - "Bombardier wins part of South African rail contract"
> 
> _
> 
> Sorry guys, but Korea is not exactly in South Africa


They are both South.

Close enough.


----------



## Bear2Bull

Bought at $3.60 and Sold out @ $4.10. Happy with this trade


----------



## Baingar

^ any reason why you got out? I'm seeing more upwards momentum. (short term)


----------



## DividendLuvr

Not getting out yet - there is more opportunity here.


----------



## PatInTheHat

I am continuing to hold as well however I don't expect a straight run up from here. Probably not a bad time to take a little profit and look to re-add a bit lower.


----------



## Synergy

Still holding - looking for more upside before I consider taking some profit.

For what it's worth - Don Vialoux (March 13, 2014) - BNN Seasonal / Technical Analyst suggests:



> Historically the time to buy this stock is right around now for a move right through until around the 3rd week in June. The 3rd week in June is when the Paris air show happens. The chart shows the stock has formed a very brief short-term bottoming pattern in the last couple of weeks. Has already established an upward trend and is starting to outperform the market. Just recently went above its 20 day moving average. It is getting lined up for a very interesting seasonal trade.


----------



## gibor365

Still holding... have some entries at 3.60, 3.95, 3.98, 4.01. Will sell partially when it goes above 4.30


----------



## pastorash

I'm a newbie, so I don't mind sharing my losses...

Bought in at 4.47 before the big recent drops. Hoping it gets back to break even soon.

Interesting thread...


----------



## Beaver101

pastorash said:


> I'm a newbie, *so I don't mind sharing my losses...*
> 
> Bought in at 4.47 before the big recent drops. Hoping it gets back to break even soon.
> 
> Interesting thread...


 ... lol ... welcome to the BBD-club and I'm not a newbee. Cheers, :chuncky:


----------



## SkyFall

pastorash said:


> I'm a newbie, so I don't mind sharing my losses...
> 
> Bought in at 4.47 before the big recent drops. Hoping it gets back to break even soon.
> 
> Interesting thread...


did u average down by buying more? 

I bought at $3.98 and $3.65..... now gonna see how long imma hold this


----------



## DividendLuvr

DividendLuvr said:


> Not getting out yet - there is more opportunity here.


I lied! Out at $4.16 on a price point of $3.68 - I'm happy with this profit margin.

Will buy in again if there is another dip.


----------



## hboy43

DividendLuvr said:


> I lied! Out at $4.16 on a price point of $3.68 - I'm happy with this profit margin.
> 
> Will buy in again if there is another dip.


I am hoping to see > $7 3 or 4 years out myself if they can successfully get those birds into the sky. At that point I will have been in BBD so long, that the compounded annual return will never be very high, but might hit low double digits one day. My ACB is $4.37 and my break even (not considering dividends) is about $3.74 due to gains booked in 2011. It is only 4.2% of portfolio right now, so maybe I'll get an opportunity to pick up more on the cheap the next time there is a hiccup.
Still, one never knows. Sometimes share prices take off (pun intended!).

Of course maybe Q separates and nationalizes the company!

I have been waiting a long time on this one, but fortunately not so long that I ever purchased WAY back when near $20/sh.

hboy43


----------



## lostwords

I will hold this a bit longer. I got in at $3.6.


----------



## pastorash

SkyFall said:


> did u average down by buying more?


I considered it when it was around $3.60 but decided to diversify, if only slightly, and bought Cenovus. Of course I feel dumb for that now. I'm less than a year into running my own investments. The rest of my investments are couch potato ETF's. The small bit allocated to stocks are my "fun money".


----------



## hboy43

pastorash said:


> Of course I feel dumb for that now.


No reason to feel dumb at all. My holding drifted down to ~3.5% and I figured the sudden drop was an opportunity to add a little which I did. If the weighting had been > 5%, would not have been an interesting enough development for me either, like it wasn't for you. The fact that it is up almost 20% in a month is just dumb luck, plain and simple. You have done nothing other than be sensible given your own particular circumstances. The lesson here is that in the short run sensible might have a worse outcome than not sensible, but a wise person still invests sensibly to give himself the best odds at a win in the long term.

hboy43


----------



## Toronto.gal

Good post, except I did not fully agree with the 'dumb luck' explanation. If you study the price chart during major drop in prices, how long did it typically take to recover a significant % of said losses, weeks/months/years, and why? News is a big part of it, and if you look at the website media centre, how many announcements were made just this year? [good & bad].

This stock = a yoyo.

Speaking of news:

*Bombardier Named Best Manufacturer of Passenger Vehicles at the Revista Ferroviaria Awards in Brazil*
http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-...20140320bombardiernamedbestmanufacturer.html?

*Deutsche Bahn and Bombardier Sign Contract for 29 Trains for Commuter Service in Central Germany*
http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-...20140320deutschebahnandbombardiersignco.html?


----------



## 6811

http://business.financialpost.com/2...ne-contract-with-russia-stalled-by-sanctions/

Jeez! No sooner does the stock price start to improve when another punch comes in. :eek2:


----------



## Synergy

"The Good, the bad, and the ugly"

http://www.fool.ca/2014/03/21/bombardier-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/


----------



## Nemo2

http://business.financialpost.com/2...iden-flight-indefinitely-over-software-issue/



> Bombardier Inc. has delayed the first flight of its new Learjet 85 indefinitely after identifying an undisclosed system issue that requires a software update.


----------



## Beaver101

At least the company will be around to resolve this problem indefinitely ...lol!


----------



## pastorash

I'm curious what people think of the near term future of this stock. I'm souring a bit on its' long term prospects, and it seems to be somewhat destined to be a flat stock for a while. Trying to decide whether to cut my losses on it and go elsewhere.


----------



## PatInTheHat

Im always amazed at the amounts of negative news this company seems to get itself into. Every couple days something seems to go wrong or there is a set back that stops any momentum. I guess the flip side is there has often been positive news as well but holy crap I don't think I have ever followed a company with so many ups and downs.

This is seasonally a good time to own BBD and I will continue to hold it into the summer and re-evaluate then.


----------



## hboy43

pastorash said:


> I'm curious what people think of the near term future of this stock. I'm souring a bit on its' long term prospects, and it seems to be somewhat destined to be a flat stock for a while. Trying to decide whether to cut my losses on it and go elsewhere.


The price will be up and down. I do know that I have made a stunning amount of money on "flat stock for a while" stocks over the decades. Will BBD be a winner eventually? Who knows, but in the mean time while sucking as a stock investment, it's return has still been better than a GIC the last number of years.

hboy43


----------



## SkyFall

closed @ $4.25 today


----------



## gibor365

SkyFall said:


> closed @ $4.25 today


What price investors wishing to sell BBD.B? or some just waiting for summer air show? Last time I bought at 3.95 and sold 1/2 at about 4.45, missing run to 5.25.... Nor sure what do do now, bought on pull back for 4.02, 3.96, and 3.60 .... the problem if I sell, what to buy?! already I have enough cash....


----------



## Synergy

gibor said:


> What price investors wishing to sell BBD.B? or some just waiting for summer air show? Last time I bought at 3.95 and sold 1/2 at about 4.45, missing run to 5.25.... Nor sure what do do now, bought on pull back for 4.02, 3.96, and 3.60 .... the problem if I sell, what to buy?! already I have enough cash....


Same here, more than enough cash right now and sitting on a decent capital gain from my recent BBD.B purchase. I'll continue to hold, if it breaks $5 I'll likely sell a 1/2 position. Opportunity to buy them back again, or simply let the remaining shares continue to rise. Hoping to be a longer term investor if they can turn things around.


----------



## SkyFall

I don't know either, but I don't feel safe in the long-term perspective with BBD.B I bought it @ $3.98 and $3.63.... I will see where it goes, but I will sell probably before or at the beginning of summer.


----------



## pastorash

$4.28, how long will the current rise last....


----------



## lostwords

I am waiting for above $4.50 to sell mine


----------



## Synergy

Bombardier's Learjet 85 Aircraft Takes Flight
http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140409-913027.html


----------



## pastorash

No effect on the stock price today though, in fact its gone down a bit.


----------



## Synergy

pastorash said:


> No effect on the stock price today though, in fact its gone down a bit.


The stock price likely got dragged down with the overall market today. At open it was actually up about 4cents and traded in a range from 3.97-4.10 for the day - to close at 4.00. Obviously the news was not enought to keep it in the green.


----------



## underemployedactor

The Learjet isn't really a big player in the Bombardier family. It's the C-series that they are banking on. Any good news on the C series will probably boost the SP.


----------



## SkyFall




----------



## lostwords

Still holding. Do u think it get to $5?


----------



## PatInTheHat

jacofan said:


> eventually but likely will dip into the high 3's before it does...if you're looking for it to gain 25% (from $4 to $5) you may ask if there are other stocks that will return 25% or more in the next year - so should money be in BBD or the others? BBD seems to be a trading stock - making some small swing trades but not a long hold..


This is pretty true. I'm still planning to hold till the summer. We will need big news on the C series to get to $5 and that is probably a ways away.


----------



## Dibs

Dibs said:


> I added some shares today at $3.83.


Sold some shares today at $4.28. Earnings report tomorrow and lately they've tended to be disappointing...


----------



## Homerhomer

I sold as well, if the report is good oh well, made a bit of a profit in a short time.


----------



## JordoR

Yeah I got out at 4.32 - only had a small position but going off the last 3 earnings estimates, I'll take my nice profit and wait and see.


----------



## Beaver101

Still holding ... company ain't going anyway without full-filling that back-log.


----------



## PatInTheHat

Going to hedge myself with this run into earnings. Sold 1/3 of my total position. I purchased at 4.75 and 3.61.

I'm a bit nervous with this report and very tempted to sell off all of it. With this momentum its getting a bit oversold, an earnings miss is really going to hurt.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Beaver101 said:


> 1. Still holding
> 2. company ain't going anyway without full-filling that back-log.


*1.* Don't like roller-coaster rides? :saturn: Stock has recovered 25% in the last 2 months; 7% just in the last week.

*2. *“Aerospace as well as Transportation had another year of strong orders bringing our backlog to a record $69.7 billion, offering great visibility on revenues for the next four years. And 2014 is off to an impressive start with more than $5 billion of new orders already obtained since the beginning of the year.”

“We’re both excited and realistic about the next two years. We’ve continued to invest during challenging times to improve our leadership position in the market place. We have one overriding objective and commitment: generating strong, sustainable, profitable growth. And our investments are about to pay off,” concluded Mr. Beaudoin.


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Don't like roller-coaster rides? :saturn: Stock has recovered 25% in the last 2 months; 7% just in the last week.
> 
> ...


 ... nope, this Beaver doesn't like roller-coaster rides. Will leave that thrill for the adventurous ones. :biggrin:


----------



## SkyFall

when the quarterly release is suppose to come out? tomorrow before/during/after the market?


----------



## Beaver101

Don't care as holding until it Flies to the Moon (eventually) ...:biggrin:


----------



## pastorash

Thursday morning before market I believe.


----------



## SkyFall

just checked it's at 7:30am tomorrow morning.... oh well I guess I am stuck in this hahahah let's hope that it won't crash!


----------



## Dibs

Bombardier posts flat revenue, profit dips - Globe and Mail



> Bombardier Inc. posted flat revenue and a dip in earnings in the first quarter but put in a strong performance in new aircraft and rail orders.
> 
> The Montreal-based company said net profit in the quarter was $115-million (U.S.) or 6 cents per share, compared with $148-million or 8 cents in the year-earlier period.
> 
> [...]
> 
> Also on Thursday, Bombardier Transportation said it has acquired Australian signalling company Rail Signalling Services (RSS), for an undisclosed amount.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Beaver101 said:


> ... nope, this Beaver doesn't like roller-coaster rides. Will leave that thrill for the adventurous ones. :biggrin:


If by adventure you meant the ride up, well, an LTI enjoys the ride down more.  Down about 7% atm, with volume of 3,528,930.

- Revenues of $4.4 billion, compared to $4.3 billion for the same period last fiscal year
- EBIT before special items(1) of $219 million, or 5.0% of revenues, compared to $240 million, or 5.5%, for the same period last fiscal year
- Adjusted net income(1) of $151 million (adjusted EPS(1) of $0.08), compared to $156 million (adjusted EPS of $0.08) for the same period last fiscal year
- Free cash flow usage(1) of $915 million, compared to a usage of $590 million for the same period last fiscal year, including a net investment of $500 million in PP&E and intangible assets
- Available short-term capital resources of $3.9 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of $2.5 billion as at March 31, 2014, compared to $4.8 billion and $3.4 billion, respectively, as at December 31, 2013
- Record backlog of $76.9 billion as at March 31, 2014, compared to $69.7 billion as at December 31, 2013

The CSeries aircraft program continues to make solid progress. The results of testing thus far, including testing at the climatic chamber at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida, are in line with our expectations. We have expanded the flight envelope to the maximum operating altitude of 12,497 metres (41,000 feet) and the maximum operating speed of Mach 0.82 (871 km/h). In the coming weeks, the fourth CSeries flight test vehicle (FTV4) is expected to complete its first flight.


----------



## Beaver101

Toronto.gal said:


> If by adventure you meant the ride up, well, an LTI enjoys the ride down more.  Down about 7% atm, with volume of 3,528,930.
> 
> ... -


 ... no, I mean the adventurous can enjoy the ride down and then up and then down like the roller-coaster as with the LTI who can enjoy the eventual ride up ... at least the LTI don't have to keep paying for those horrendous entry fees of the roller coaster rides, :biggrin:


----------



## SkyFall

it's not that bad stock is down around 5-6% today but it's still way higher than my entry points


----------



## Toronto.gal

Beaver101 said:


> have to keep paying for those *horrendous entry fees* of the roller coaster rides, :biggrin:


You left out the exit fees. :tongue-new:

Yup, had to deduct a nasty $0.6% [return fee] from my last trading profit of around 12%. :rolleyes2: But holding the LT shares for the moon ride in 2032?. 

Now just .25 cents shy of that last trade, ie: another roller coaster ride. Shares are currently trading at same amount as they were dripped in March [$4.08].


----------



## RParks

Jeez, I wish I sold this when it was at $5.30.

I was looking for $7 though being a greedy pig.


----------



## 6811

RParks said:


> Jeez, I wish I sold this when it was at $5.30.
> 
> I was looking for $7 though being a greedy pig.


ME too!:stupid:


----------



## Nemo2

Picked up a handful more @ $4.10 this morning.


----------



## Beaver101

So sellers' pain is Nemo2's gain ... :biggrin:


----------



## Nemo2

Beaver101 said:


> So sellers' pain is Nemo2's gain ... :biggrin:


Desiderata:

"..............no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should." :biggrin:


----------



## RParks

Just sold at $4.15. Bought at $3.40 but hung on too long.

Switched it for some BAD.


----------



## Asterix

Anyone buying this on the way down?


----------



## JordoR

I sold at 4.32 right before recent earnings report came out with the intent to buy again at maybe the 3.80-3.90 mark. My funds are tied up on other ones at the moment though so I'll see what happens.


----------



## PatInTheHat

JordoR said:


> I sold at 4.32 right before recent earnings report came out with the intent to buy again at maybe the 3.80-3.90 mark. My funds are tied up on other ones at the moment though so I'll see what happens.


I'm still waiting to re-add my sold shares as well. My only concern with using 3.8-3.9 mark is if it hits that I think you could see 3.6 again.


----------



## SkyFall

if stock keep diving imma add more!


----------



## Beaver101

I'm waiting for a buy-one, get one-free sale .. or so I wish. :biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ Why *Beav*, is it your b'day or something? :biggrin:

Don't know how many times I have used the word roller-coaster here. :unconscious:


----------



## JordoR

PatInTheHat said:


> I'm still waiting to re-add my sold shares as well. My only concern with using 3.8-3.9 mark is if it hits that I think you could see 3.6 again.


Yeah I hadn't really decided on a re-entry point, but being 3.90 at market close today I think it will go lower tomorrow. I don't even have the available funds right now anyway so I'll see what happens. :hopelessness:


----------



## Canuck

JordoR said:


> I sold at 4.32 right before recent earnings report came out with the intent to buy again at maybe the 3.80-3.90 mark. My funds are tied up on other ones at the moment though so I'll see what happens.


I did the same, sold at 4.33. I may jump back in again as well.


----------



## DividendLuvr

My target price is about $3.65, so still a long way to go.


----------



## lostwords

DividendLuvr said:


> My target price is about $3.65, so still a long way to go.


Same here. Last time I got in at $3.60 and got out at $4.20. Hoping to get in around the same spot as well


----------



## PatInTheHat

I'm not entire sure we will see $3.6 again (will take some ugly news but if anyone can do it im sure BBD can) but I think it would be wise to at least let the next few days play out before adding. It will likely be had a bit lower yet and 3.65 is also my target rebuy. I still have about a 1/2 position.


----------



## 6811

PatInTheHat said:


> I'm not entire sure we will see $3.6 again (will take some ugly news but if anyone can do it im sure BBD can) but I think it would be wise to at least let the next few days play out before adding. It will likely be had a bit lower yet and 3.65 is also my target rebuy. I still have about a 1/2 position.


This may be the ugly news:
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/News/c...+Bombardier+from+sanctions/9847918/story.html


----------



## Synergy

6811 said:


> This may be the ugly news:
> http://www.ottawacitizen.com/News/c...+Bombardier+from+sanctions/9847918/story.html


How is that bad news?


----------



## 6811

The story goes that the government has excluded one of these men from the sanctions because of his ties to a BBD deal. Now that it's in the open they may have to extend the sanctions to include these men, or the Russians may just kill all deals with us over this. If any of this is true then it could be bad news for BBD. The following are quotes from the story:

"But Bombardier and Rostec have been working on a joint venture that would see them produce up to 100 small passenger planes for the Russian market. The agreement could be worth as much as $3.7 billion to the Canadian company."

"The Canadian company is also gearing up to compete for what could be billions of dollars in work replacing Russia’s aging train cars in advance of its hosting soccer’s World Cup in 2018."


----------



## Synergy

6811 said:


> The story goes that the government has excluded one of these men from the sanctions because of his ties to a BBD deal. Now that it's in the open they may have to extend the sanctions to include these men, or the Russians may just kill all deals with us over this. If any of this is true then it could be bad news for BBD.


Thanks for the clarification. At first glance I simply thought that it would have been good news for BBD.


----------



## Tom Dl

Not that it wouldn't get them down a little, but even if that deal goes away... They have orders.


----------



## Synergy

PatInTheHat said:


> I'm not entire sure we will see $3.6 again


Got pretty close today - $3.68.


----------



## Dibs

Buyers are getting cold feet:

http://business.financialpost.com/2...-biggest-cseries-customer-turns-cold-on-jets/


----------



## JordoR

When is everyone considering a possible re-entry on this? I originally said 3.8 - 3.9, but looking to see this go a bit lower. Would have to drop a lot before I would considering selling something to pick this up again. Currently no free cash.


----------



## Homerhomer

My plan is to re-establish position around 3.60, not that far away from there, and then add if it continues to go down.


----------



## SkyFall

same here around $3.60 I will get more!


----------



## PatInTheHat

Synergy said:


> Got pretty close today - $3.68.


So close! Rebounded though. Ah well.


----------



## SkyFall

bought more @ $3.61 on today news!


----------



## pastorash

I gave serious consideration to selling today but can't sell low, brighter days ahead. (fingers crossed)


----------



## SkyFall

pastorash said:


> I gave serious consideration to selling today but can't sell low, brighter days ahead. (fingers crossed)


why would u sell on days like this? it's how people get burn! you either keep it or buy more....don't sell on days like this.... building a aircraft is a rocky road...its normal to have ups and downs


----------



## JordoR

Ah I would've bought in at 3.55 today but I was out golfing and missed it. Will have to see what happens Monday now.


----------



## Beaver101

SkyFall said:


> why would u sell on days like this? it's how people get burn! you either keep it or buy more....don't sell on days like this.... building a aircraft is a rocky road...its normal to have ups and downs


 ... somebody gotta sell in order for somebody to buy and somebody to make $$ :wink:


----------



## SkyFall

Beaver101 said:


> ... somebody gotta sell in order for somebody to buy and somebody to make $$ :wink:


alright alright! hahhahha


----------



## DividendLuvr

I've got a limit order in for this again - love the roller coaster!


----------



## Toronto.gal

SkyFall said:


> *building a aircraft is a rocky road.*..its normal to have ups and downs


...hence not for the faint of heart.

So far, all that has been disclosed by the company, is that there was an engine-related incident during maintenance testing, and that "tearing down and failure analysis" began on Sunday. Also per reports, more than 4,500 hours of engine testing over 3 years has been done by Pratt & Whitney, so hopefully the problem is minor. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pratt_&_Whitney_PW1000G

"We don't believe at this point it (the failure) impacts entry into service," Bombardier Aerospace President and Chief Operating Officer Guy Hachey was quoted as saying by the Aviation Week publication. But "if it lasts a long time, of course it will," he said.


----------



## Dibs

Looks like Bombardier's PR is working very hard to keep details of the incident under wraps. An interesting tidbit:

http://www.thestar.com/business/2014...d_testing.html


> The Transportation Safety Board of Canada had an investigator onsite Thursday and is assessing the incident, spokesperson Chris Krepski said. "From the information we received, it was an *uncontained engine failure* during a ground test," he said, adding that the four people onboard escaped without injuries. "There was a fire involved which was put out by airport firefighters," he said. An uncontained failure is an especially serious problem and happens when parts of the engine break through the casing.


http://online.wsj.com/articles/new-b...ure-1401475483


> According to two people familiar with the incident, the failure inside the engine was "uncontained" and debris spewed out of its casing. There were no injuries during the incident, said the Bombardier spokesman, who said both the engine and the airframe were damaged, but the extent was still being assessed.


 "Uncontained failure" - in other words the engine blew up!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbine_engine_failure#Contained_and_uncontained_failures


----------



## off.by.10

Dibs said:


> "Uncontained failure" - in other words the engine blew up!


Yes, on the news they said that bombardier insists on not calling it an explosion but that there was damage to the plane. Bottom line: it blew up and the test planes are grounded until they know why. I'm not sure I will buy on this particular dip (yet). Too much is unknown.


----------



## Homerhomer

I am on the fence still even though my initial thought was to re-enter in the 3.60 range.

Bearish signs from analysts:
1) Larry Berman - he is buyer from about $4, when Larry buys is often very bad news ;-)
2) Benj Gallender sold after holding for a short period of time which is very unusual for him, doesn't like the deteriorating balance sheet and the impact of the Russian situation since Russia is a big customer of BBD.

I think Gallender is one of the very few folks on BNN worth listening to.


----------



## Toronto.gal

off.by.10 said:


> Too much is unknown.


Agree!

Note how much the stock had dropped in late 2012 when the first 6 month delay had been announced. The engine news in worse case scenario [also a first], could do same, so unless you're comfortable with a potential -15% drop or more, it's better to wait for more details, even if it means losing some upside points.


----------



## pastorash

SkyFall said:


> why would u sell on days like this? it's how people get burn! you either keep it or buy more....don't sell on days like this.... building a aircraft is a rocky road...its normal to have ups and downs


I admittedly made a bad purchase on this, new to the game, not a stock I want to build my RRSP portfolio around. Made some decent short term purchases in '13, but moving to a buy and hold strategy and this isn't making me comfy to hold long term. Still holding but nervous... which may make some of you waiting for a good dip happy.


----------



## SkyFall

_"I can understand that people would ask questions when there is an event like this...but we feel confident that we'll find the problem rapidly with Pratt & Whitney and that we'll be able to meet our schedule to entry into service in the second half of 2015," Beaudoin told reporters Monday._

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/b...-pressure-since-cseries-engine-143637408.html


----------



## SkyFall

holysh*t I just woke up from my awesome dream hahahhaha BBD.TO was up by $1.25..... woke up to this was painful hahahhaha


----------



## SkyFall

More lay off.... buying opportunity!? 

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bombardier-lay-off-workers-facility-wichita-221741925.html


----------



## SkyFall

$3.95 (up 2.87%)


----------



## Beaver101

SkyFall said:


> $3.95 (up 2.87%)


 ... so did you buy or did you sell? :biggrin:


----------



## SkyFall

Beaver101 said:


> ... so did you buy or did you sell? :biggrin:


none I bought more when it dip to $3.60isshhh ... now waiting to ride the roller coaster


----------



## Beaver101

SkyFall said:


> none I bought more when it dip to $3.60isshhh ... now waiting to ride the roller coaster


 ... okay, I can count on you to tell me when to jump out of that roller-coaster ... I'm still riding it and it has been giving me nothing but dizziness....:topsy_turvy: :smilet-digitalpoint


----------



## SkyFall

Beaver101 said:


> ... okay, I can count on you to tell me when to jump out of that roller-coaster ... I'm still riding it and it has been giving me nothing but dizziness....:topsy_turvy: :smilet-digitalpoint


wait I was counting on Tgal to tell me when to get out hahhahah joke joke!


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ I like your sense of humour SF. 

Since June 5th, when the initial announcement was made by Bombardier + engine manufacturer, that they did not believe the engine problem had been related to design flaw, the stock has gradually recovered; nearing $4 now from the low of $3.54/$3.67 reached on May 30th & June 5th respectively.

Not in any rush to get off my long-term roller-coaster for a # of years, but my LT position is separate from my ST trading positions, so I never get dizzy like Beav. nthego:


----------



## Electric

15% operational budget cuts demanded of managers at all sites. More layoffs on the way. With the pay and training freeze, anybody who can get another job (i.e. anybody good) is putting out feelers.

Still, I am holding. It will be a $5-7 stock within 2 years.


----------



## JordoR

Looking for it to drop to $3.60 again to start another position. Last time it happened I missed it because I was out golfing...


----------



## SkyFall

JordoR said:


> Looking for it to drop to $3.60 again to start another position. Last time it happened I missed it because I was out golfing...


smartphone?


----------



## JordoR

SkyFall said:


> smartphone?


Yeah I do have the Questrade IQ App for my phone which I usually use all the time, but I guess I was too enthralled by my game haha :distress:


----------



## SkyFall

JordoR said:


> Yeah I do have the Questrade IQ App for my phone which I usually use all the time, but I guess I was too enthralled by my game haha :distress:


dont worry I feel ya bro! when I play hockey I forget about everything!


----------



## Synergy

Bombardier strikes CSeries deal with lessor Falko Regional Aircraft:



> Falko Regional Aircraft Limited, a lessor based in Britain, has signed two letters of intent to buy up to 24 CS100 jets, the first new CSeries deal announced since the first quarter.


http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN0FH0V120140712

Farnborough International Airshow kicks off on Monday!


----------



## SkyFall

thanks god good news!


----------



## DividendLuvr

Great! Looking forward to seeing this above $4 again.


----------



## pastorash

I hear the C Series is a no show at the Air Show.


----------



## Synergy

pastorash said:


> I hear the C Series is a no show at the Air Show.


Correct. A result of engine issues back in May. From what I've read so far it looks like they're making some new orders.


----------



## yyz

Yes but not firm orders.That would drive the stock price not these tentative orders.


----------



## SkyFall

More job losses!

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/b...erospace-head-retires-002316288--finance.html


----------



## Mortgage u/w

I dumped this stock a few years ago and very glad I did. Made a few dollars but was pure luck. I don't see this stock going anywhere for a long time. Better money to be made elsewhere.


----------



## humble_pie

evidently the Q400 assembly program created for russia - bombardier RJs to be built in russia - is now up for grabs due to western political concerns ...


----------



## My Own Advisor

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-jobs-including-senior-staff/article19736687/

Same link as above? Sorry if so.


----------



## JordoR

Nice, getting down to my re-entry price point.


----------



## KaeJS

JordoR said:


> Nice, getting down to my re-entry price point.


Correct.

I'll be looking to take a position next week. <$3.60 is good for me.

Just looking for a swing trade. Not looking to hold.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Maybe I'll play too... never held this before.


----------



## SkyFall

my next target for an entry is around $3.55-$3.60.

I view this as speculation, I will try to ride the wave that will hopefully bring us to the C series launch date.


----------



## KaeJS

SkyFall said:


> my next target for an entry is around $3.55-$3.60.
> 
> I view this as speculation, I will try to ride the wave that will hopefully bring us to the C series launch date.


SkyFall,

Buying BBD.B at this price is not speculation. I think the word you are looking for is "guarantee".

Your GPRO buy was speculative. Buying BBD.B is free money. All you have to do is click a button and wait.

Look at the BBD chart. You can easily go from $3.60/share to $3.80/share, sometimes in less than week. I have traded this pattern multiple times. This is a huge return. It is not emotionally taxing and the company is well-known. They even have a 2%ish yield.

Make a trade, sit back, have a cold beer and you'll be out of your position in a month with some cash. Don't even worry about the C-series garbage. It will only distract you from what is real. What is real is that this will be worth $4.00 again. That's the only thing you should worry about.

I am probably going to leverage the hell out of this next week.


----------



## KaeJS

Skyfall,

Don't listen to the sarcasm and criticism above. A possible 5.5% return in around a week or two's time is a great return. If you combine that with leverage, your return is even higher.

If you invested $5k of your own money, borrowed another $5k on margin and invested your $10k total at $3.60/share, you could get about 2750 units.

Assuming you sold out at $3.80, that would be:

2750 x 0.20 = $550

Your initial investment ($5k) and your return ($550) would give you an 11% return. Not bad for an investment of only $5k.


----------



## KaeJS

You could. You just have to factor in your budget and liquidity of the stock.


----------



## KaeJS

I'll post screenshots for you, jacofan. Thank you for your concern.


----------



## SkyFall

I like the way you think about BBD KaeJS


----------



## The ruined man

Low of 3.61 today. Was it enough for anyone to bite, or will it go lower tomorrow¿


----------



## SkyFall

The ruined man said:


> Low of 3.61 today. Was it enough for anyone to bite, or will it go lower tomorrow¿


still holding the trigger here.... I think asap it snap at $3.59 im in.... (i know I know it's just in my head)


----------



## Jesse

KaeJS said:


> SkyFall,
> 
> Buying BBD.B at this price is not speculation. I think the word you are looking for is "guarantee".
> 
> Your GPRO buy was speculative. Buying BBD.B is free money. All you have to do is click a button and wait.
> 
> Look at the BBD chart. You can easily go from $3.60/share to $3.80/share, sometimes in less than week. I have traded this pattern multiple times. This is a huge return. It is not emotionally taxing and the company is well-known. They even have a 2%ish yield.
> 
> Make a trade, sit back, have a cold beer and you'll be out of your position in a month with some cash. Don't even worry about the C-series garbage. It will only distract you from what is real. What is real is that this will be worth $4.00 again. That's the only thing you should worry about.
> 
> I am probably going to leverage the hell out of this next week.


I think last time we heard this sort of talk, Goldcorp under $40 was "free money". G went on to a low of around 21 bucks and is now back to around 30.

Caveat emptor


----------



## JordoR

I got back in today at 3.60. Not holding it for long term but will just ride the wave again like I've done several times this year for a nice profit.


----------



## The ruined man

SkyFall said:


> still holding the trigger here.... I think asap it snap at $3.59 im in.... (i know I know it's just in my head)



I´m hoping it goes go a little lower than that. 3.55 and i might throw some money at it.


----------



## plasmasnake

I really don't know how you guys are so confident that this stock will rise back up every time it dips... Seems like a gamble!


----------



## Synergy

plasmasnake said:


> I really don't know how you guys are so confident that this stock will rise back up every time it dips... Seems like a gamble!


On a short term basis most stocks are a gamble. I'd imagine most are playing around with fun money here, so yes the term gamble is somewhat appropriate. Q2 will be coming out Thursday - place your bets! Long term BBD.B may surprise to the upside, that is if they can get their act together. I could however see some further near term weakness - Q2 2014, etc.

Edit: FWIW - orders seem to keep coming:
http://seekingalpha.com/news/187627...n-orders-received-after-options-are-exercised


----------



## PatInTheHat

Earnings report on the 31st and with the stock price coming near resistance lows this thing could take a hard drop. I'd recommend some caution.


----------



## GOB

Please do not go around passing off investing on margin as a guarantee. Let alone on such a volatile company about to announce earnings. How incredibly dangerous and naïve.


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> Please do not go around passing off investing on margin as a guarantee. Let alone on such a volatile company about to announce earnings. How incredibly dangerous and naïve.


Pretty ironic message coming from the boi that was playing with AAPL at its all time high [as of yesterday, stock was just $18 from that 09/2012 high of $705 {$100.71 in split terms}] . 

Yesterday, BBD.B was at -34% from the Oct.2013 high of $5.43, or just 4% above its Feb./2014 low of $3.44. Always a gamble 2 buy, especially just before earnings, and that goes without saying, but the danger is not always the same when taking all known factors into account, such as all events that occurred in the subsequent quarter. For sure there are many more reasons not to buy b4 earnings [I have done it very few times myself and even then had been wrong 1/2 the time], but that is not to say that if one's desired price hits just b4 earnings, that it necessarily makes it more dangerous 2 buy. 

Nothing is guaranteed obviously, but KaeJS isn't naive nor a newbie, and his 'guaranteed' 5.5% from his desired entry point of $3.60, or 4.4% above the 52 week low, wasn't unrealistic at all [he wasn't talking about a day-trade].

*Q2:*

- Revenues of $4.9 billion, compared to $4.4 billion for the same period last fiscal year
- EBIT before special items(1) of $257 million, or 5.3% of revenues, compared to $257 million, or 5.8%, for the same period last fiscal year
- Adjusted net income(1) of $192 million (adjusted EPS(1) of $0.10), compared to $158 million (adjusted EPS of $0.09) for the same period last fiscal year
- Free cash flow usage(1) of $424 million, compared to a usage of $566 million for the same period last fiscal year, including a net investment of $525 million in PP&E and intangible assets
- Available short-term capital resources of $3.9 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of $2.5 billion as at June 30, 2014, compared to $4.8 billion and $3.4 billion, respectively, as at December 31, 2013
- Backlog of $75.7 billion as at June 30, 2014, compared to $69.7 billion as at December 31, 2013
- Subsequent to quarter-end, announcement of a new organizational structure

http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-...ncesfinancialresultsforthe.bombardiercom.html


----------



## MrMatt

Nice results, and no big price movement yet.


----------



## gibor365

MrMatt said:


> Nice results, and no big price movement yet.


It was pretty big movement . but down  reached $3.575


----------



## MrMatt

gibor said:


> It was pretty big movement . but down  reached $3.575


Roughly in line with the market.
I might pick some up, but I'm also considering some others, too bad I have limited cash.


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> It was pretty big movement . but down  reached $3.575


Why the sad face? Didn't like the price? 

It dropped in reaction to the global sell-off, but it has risen over 5% since it fell that low this a.m. Did you notice the volume?


----------



## KaeJS

KaeJS said:


> I'll post screenshots for you, jacofan. Thank you for your concern.


Well, jacofan deleted all of his posts in this thread.

Hi Jacofan. Did you see the report on BBD.B today? They beat estimates.

And did you see the spread today?

Surely, that was _ALL_ speculation. It's really too bad you didn't put a million on it.


----------



## Synergy

One of only a few stocks of mine that was in the green today. Nice little market sell-off.


----------



## GOB

Toronto.gal said:


> Pretty ironic message coming from the boi that was playing with AAPL at its all time high [as of yesterday, stock was just $18 from that 09/2012 high of $705 {$100.71 in split terms}] .
> 
> Yesterday, BBD.B was at -34% from the Oct.2013 high of $5.43, or just 4% above its Feb./2014 low of $3.44. Always a gamble 2 buy, especially just before earnings, and that goes without saying, but the danger is not always the same when taking all known factors into account, such as all events that occurred in the subsequent quarter. For sure there are many more reasons not to buy b4 earnings [I have done it very few times myself and even then had been wrong 1/2 the time], but that is not to say that if one's desired price hits just b4 earnings, that it necessarily makes it more dangerous 2 buy.
> 
> Nothing is guaranteed obviously, but KaeJS isn't naive nor a newbie, and his 'guaranteed' 5.5% from his desired entry point of $3.60, or 4.4% above the 52 week low, wasn't unrealistic at all [he wasn't talking about a day-trade].
> 
> *Q2:*
> 
> - Revenues of $4.9 billion, compared to $4.4 billion for the same period last fiscal year
> - EBIT before special items(1) of $257 million, or 5.3% of revenues, compared to $257 million, or 5.8%, for the same period last fiscal year
> - Adjusted net income(1) of $192 million (adjusted EPS(1) of $0.10), compared to $158 million (adjusted EPS of $0.09) for the same period last fiscal year
> - Free cash flow usage(1) of $424 million, compared to a usage of $566 million for the same period last fiscal year, including a net investment of $525 million in PP&E and intangible assets
> - Available short-term capital resources of $3.9 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of $2.5 billion as at June 30, 2014, compared to $4.8 billion and $3.4 billion, respectively, as at December 31, 2013
> - Backlog of $75.7 billion as at June 30, 2014, compared to $69.7 billion as at December 31, 2013
> - Subsequent to quarter-end, announcement of a new organizational structure
> 
> http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-...ncesfinancialresultsforthe.bombardiercom.html


It's not ironic at all, and I'm making no judgements about BBD.B being a poor investments at these levels. I may look to step in myself. 

I am fully aware of the risks I take. Never have I guaranteed anything at any level - I just make strong long term fundamental arguments. 

I always thought you were a sensible poster, but the fact that you see nothing wrong with KaeJS's encouragement to load up on margin before earnings as a guaranteed payout makes me reconsider. He's not a newbie, but he certainly is naïve. When you're on margin, you run the risk of margin calls if the stock drops as well as paying significant margin interest until the stock recovers past your purchase price. No risk, right?

By the way, I've been adjusting my risk downwards as AAPL has ticked up. I'm not "playing" with the stock with any sort of certainty in my mind that it will go up before it goes down. Also, I'm not using margin on my main account. Big difference, but maybe not to you.

If you're talking about two years ago, I did indeed play with AAPL on margin at all time highs, and I did get burned. However, it was a secondary account used to test option strategies with the disclaimer that it was risky and I was prepared to lose it all. It was a lesson learned - one I'm trying to pass on but I guess it's not welcome.

Phrases like "free money" "click a button and wait" "have a cold beer" have no place in a serious discussion about investing, especially while encouraging the use of margin. It's downright dangerous.


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> *1.* I always thought you were a sensible poster, but the fact that *you see nothing wrong with KaeJS's encouragement to load up on margin before earnings as a guaranteed payout makes me reconsider.*
> *2.* By the way, *I've been adjusting my risk downwards* as AAPL has ticked up.
> *3.* If you're talking about two years ago, *I did indeed play with AAPL on margin at all time highs*, and I did get burned.


*1.* GOB, sorry to disappoint you, so reconsider all you want. But you even missed my point entirely since I was not talking about margin, just that buying at current levels was hardly 'incredibly dangerous/naive' as you put it, and that had been my only point! I'm not so sure that KaeJS was encouraging margin so much as explaining how profitable it can be, but needless to say it comes with risk at any time/price. 

Please also note that there is plenty of proof around this forum over the years, that I have always discouraged margin investing; as recently as a few days ago even, but since you only participate under mostly the AAPL thread, you would not know, would you?

*2.* I'm very glad to hear that, especially since you disappeared from the forum when AAPL plunged, but came back after its recovery. We all learn lessons from our mistakes/experimentations. 

*3.* Yes, that is precisely what I was talking about; not that you were telling anyone to follow you, just that you were playing dangerously yourself, that's all.


----------



## GOB

Fair enough. 

My only point is that considering any trade as a sure thing, especially on an intraday timeframe when company fundamentals have little or nothing to do with price movement is unwise, and especially unwise to encourage others to think the same. When commissions are often eating up half your profits as shown in his spreadsheet, I wouldn't call him a savvy investor with a sustainable strategy. I don't mean any offense. We all have a lot to learn but he should not be imparting such advice. 

Margin or no margin, the phrases tossed around by KaeJS were incredibly dangerous and naïve. I am a huge bull on AAPL but I don't say stuff like that - I provide my reasons for my bias and let people decide whether or not to invest. BBD.B is a fine company. The stock is not much higher than it was a decade ago but they seem to be doing well, likely undervalued and pay a decent tax-advantaged dividend with some reasonable growth prospects. 

I guess you misunderstood me as well. My concern was nothing to do with BBD.B but rather the encouragement to invest on margin right before earnings with a no-risk attitude. We all know earnings can be interpreted any number of way by the market, good or bad.


----------



## KaeJS

GOB, we are all adults here.

SkyFall can make his own decisions. I wasn't putting a gun to his head. I could almost say the same thing about you and your pro-iOS/AAPL arguments.

Look - Margin is very effective. Leverage is a beautiful thing.

Did I tell SkyFall to leverage everything he has? Did I tell him to go all in before earnings? I don't know how much money SkyFall has or what his focus is. He is his own person. He can make his own decisions. He's been around for a while and he seems like a smart guy.

My play on BBD would be to buy x number of shares before earnings, using a little bit of margin. If the stock goes south, you can always use more margin if need be or take some money from an emergency fund that everyone _should_ have in order to Dollar Cost Average your position.

I wasn't encouraging SkyFall to go balls to the wall and bet everything he's got. I was simply making a point and comparison between his SPECULATION on GPRO and the limited risk that BBD.B has in relation to GPRO. If anyone thinks that GPRO is less risk than BBD.B, then they need to get off the forum and find a different hobby. Every IPO is a risk.

If people do their due diligence (which is not my job), then they will see how easy of a play this BBD.B purchase was/is.

I may toss around phrases like "Click a button and wait", "Grab a beer", "Guaranteed money", etc. But hey, either you can't read between the lines or you've got something stuck up your rear. Everyone knows that stocks are not guaranteed. Anyone who takes "guaranteed money" seriously is just a fool.

Of course the BBD.B trade is/was not "guaranteed". I was simply trying to emphasize how much of a better buy it is than buying an IPO such a GPRO from a risk/reward and stability perspective.

As for my spreadsheet, the year 2013 has not been updated. 2014 is not yet available. I have not had the time to update these as I have had a rough 1.5 years and it got put on the backburner. If you take a look at years 2011 and 2012, you will see that my commissions definitely do not eat half my profits. Also consider that the year 2011 was my first year trading. I have beat the TSX every year since I started. I am also up 45% YTD for 2014 and I do not feel the need to justify myself any further than this. I know what I am returning on a regular basis and I also know that my call on BBD.B was correct, as can be seen publicly by everyone.

Anyway, GOB, by the looks of your posts, it sounds like you need to "have a cold beer."


----------



## KaeJS

SkyFall,

Did I encourage you to make a bad decision? Did you get a margin call? Did you lose any money?

Just curious...


----------



## SkyFall

Alright guys! calm down 

When I said I like the way KaeJS think was more about the pattern of the stock.... hitting the lows (around $3.60) and almost always get it back to $3.75-$3.80s. and for what is worth, KaeJS didn't encourage me doing any margin trading.... anyways I don't even have a margin account, I don't think I am knowledgeable enough to use leverage at the moment. I have a lot of respect for KaeJS and T.GAL and I love reading their posts because you can learn so much but If I act it's on my own... lots of time T.GAL opened my eyes about stuff and at the end of the day I am the one holding the reins of my portfolio.

and about BBD.B..... I was so close to pull the trigger today for more shares at $3.58 but I was at work and didnt have time to process everything in my mind and didn't buy it  hahhaha but anyways at least its one of the few stock I end up the day in the positive.....


----------



## KaeJS

SkyFall said:


> I have a lot of respect for KaeJS and T.GAL and I love reading their posts because you can learn so much
> 
> at least its one of the few stock I end up the day in the positive.....


Thanks for the feedback, SkyFall. Glad you enjoy the information T.gal and I post.

And hey, you were positive in BBD.B. That's what we're all here for, right? - To make money.


----------



## PatInTheHat

Surprisingly good earnings report. Should be on our way to above $4.00 again as long as they can stay out of the news with more failures.


----------



## JordoR

I'm just generally curious, who bought in just before the earnings report? I have a small position at 3.60


----------



## GOB

KaeJS said:


> Anyone who takes "guaranteed money" seriously is just a fool


You're right, but that's the concern I have. There are many newbie investors that come to this forum and the vast majority of them are foolish on the topic. They may see a poster such as yourself who's been around for several years making such definitive statements and decide to jump in without doing their own due diligence and without knowing the full extent of the consequences. 

It's true that you're not responsible for their actions, but I feel there is a moral obligation not to encourage people into making bad decisions based on outlandish hyperbole. Since you admit you don't really mean it, why say it at all?

Maybe I'm being too serious, but I consider investing serious business, not fun and games. With people's financial well being at stake, I will voice my concerns when I see them.


----------



## KaeJS

GOB said:


> I feel there is a moral obligation not to encourage people into making bad decisions based on outlandish hyperbole.


Go look at the stock price.

Did I tell him to make a bad decision? I actually told him to make a great decision. It was much less risky than his GPRO trade, which was my whole point.

I'm not knocking the guy. He made a decent penny off of his GPRO trade. Kudos to him. But I still did not give him poor advice. 

To clarify, I never said that I didn't mean what I said. I said that either people couldn't read between the lines or something was stuck up their rear. Now, you are just putting words in my mouth.


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> 1. I guess you *misunderstood* me as well.
> 2. *margin...*
> 3. You're right, but that's the concern I have/With people's financial well being at stake, *I will voice my concerns when I see them*.


*1.* Yes, there was a bit of that.

Btw, I don't think you should forget past investment mistakes, but rather you should use them as occasional reminders for yourself [& others] not to repeat same, and reason why I had also brought it up, and not to rub it in your face [which I have never done b4, quite the opposite]. 

*2.* From a book I recently read:* 'I would venture to say that only a small % of customers who have margin accounts and the reps. servicing these accounts, could get a passing grade on the exam at the back of this book.'* That is the real problem, poor knowledge of the product, not the product itself. 

*3. *To be fair, and if not mistaken, this would be the 1st time you have shown such concern, even when you have been a long-time member of the forum.


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> 1. Go look at the stock price.
> 2. It was much less risky than his GPRO trade, which was my whole point.


*1.* Price........

Just since Q1, there had been multiple price dips from April 30th [just b4 Q1] to July 30th [b4 Q2], which brought the price down from $4.43 to $3.58, so at almost a 20% drop in just 1Q, the downside had been fairly limited [I was nevertheless prepared for a 5% to 8% additional drop]. As it happened, the 1st global sell-off of the year came on the day of the earnings, so those who waited until after earnings, got the same chance to buy as those that purchased a day earlier, and at similar price. Coincidentally, the price in the last 2 days had not been seen since May. Had earnings missed on a day like yesterday, the stock could have easily dropped twice as much with the combo of bad earnings + global sell-off. 

*2.* SK has a taste for IPOs, and he's been lucky indeed, though he did so with a plan. Did U buy LOCO SK?


----------



## SkyFall

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.*
> *2.* SK has a taste for IPOs, and he's been lucky indeed, though he did so with a plan. Did U buy LOCO SK?


funny you mention LOCO, I was SOOOOOO close to pull the trigger on that but after 2-3 days of rise I was afraid it wont hold the momentum.... well turn out I miss the opportunity but I have to admit that now that the stock rise that much its easier to say this but I wouldnt bet the ranch at the beginning.


----------



## KaeJS

SkyFall, I mean this in the most sincere and nicest way possible. I think you should try to relax a little on the IPO's. Most importantly, it is even more risk to buy LOCO (or any IPO) after it has already gone up for a day or two. At that point, you should usually consider that to be a runaway stock or a "no-go". It would be off my list instantly. I tend to think of it as black or white. Either you're in it at the beginning or you can't be in at all unless you have a good reason.

Although investing in LOCO might make money, you'd have to almost be loco to do so. :biggrin: In any case, you made the right decision from a risk mitigation standpoint by not purchasing LOCO.

IPO's, as I'm sure you know, can be profitable but deadly. One thing to consider is that once you lose money, it is much harder to make it back.

If you have $100 and you lose 10%, you need 11% to break even.
(100 - 10 = 90. 90x1.11 = $99.90)

IPO's can hurt your bottom line. Your bottom line is ultimately what pushes your net worth forward.

Warren Buffet always said that the number one rule to investing is to not lose money. This is the most valuable quote in investing, in my opinion, as everything is compounded and exponential.

It is much better to be safe than sorry.


----------



## SkyFall

Oh dont worry I didnt buy LOCO, but hey thanks for the advice. I know IPOs can go south pretty easily like FB at their beginning. Dont worry the money I use to buy IPOs (when I do buy) is the ''gamble'' money....the profit of the previous investments/trades.


----------



## Beaver101

A dare-devil newbee .. IPOs before mature stocks ... oh, I forgot SkyFall is 007's buddy :biggrin: Just joking here - I'm sure you know what you guys are doing.

*For TO.Gal:* I'm still waiting to get off the BBD jet.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Beaver101 said:


> I'm still waiting to get off the BBD jet.


What jet? There is no jet - haven't you heard?
You are flying in thin air :biggrin:


----------



## SkyFall

Guys guys guys! we agreed it was a ROLLER COASTER!  I will pm you beaver when T.GAL give me the ''get out signal'' 

the reason why lately I look at lot more into IPOs its because in the ''mature'' stocks, I am already expose to the market.... a market in which I ''think'' there will be a correction even though its reaching record highs (not for the last days though) and its harder for me to do my analysis on the ''mature'' companies which is why I take a SMALL portion of my portfolio and play the game of IPOs (not all of them I try to cherry pick them).

Once again thanks for the reminder KaeJS


----------



## Beaver101

HaroldCrump said:


> What jet? There is no jet - haven't you heard?
> You are flying in thin air :biggrin:


 ... right right right, flying in thin air on the roller-coaster ... man, it's Friday and I'm all ready for the weekend, actually since Monday... :biggrin:

Okay, SkyFall ... got ya, thanks in advance! :encouragement:


----------



## SkyFall

hahhaha lucky you! I have to be in the office by 7am tomorrow on a beautiful saturday 

off the record, you better check your pm everyday other wise you will miss the pitstop and you will be stuck on the wagon for another ride


----------



## Beaver101

SkyFall said:


> hahhaha lucky you! I have to be in the office by 7am tomorrow on a beautiful saturday
> 
> off the record, you better check your pm everyday other wise you will miss the pitstop and you will be stuck on the wagon for another ride


 ... that's one of the reason why I don't work for the bank ... :tongue: ... if it makes you feel any better, tomorrow's forecast is possible rain so at least you're dry inside. 

And no I won't be checking my pm tomorrow or the day after tomorrow or Monday either. :biggrin:


----------



## KaeJS

SkyFall said:


> I have to be in the office by 7am tomorrow on a beautiful saturday


You aren't the only one, my friend.


----------



## SkyFall

dont worry I ***** about it but I think I am super fortune and grateful to be able to have a decent job while still in school


----------



## SkyFall

BBD.B is taking a hit today..... if its going lower that $3.70 I am jumping in...target is around $3.65


----------



## KaeJS

Oh, are we playing this game again?

This is my favourite game, SkyFall. It's called the "Game of Guarantees". :biggrin:

On a (more) serious note, I did take notice of the fall today. SkyFall, if you are serious, you should read this article:

Aug 29, 2014

http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-centre/newsList/details.bombardier-transportation20140829bombardierinvestsforthefuturein.bombardiercom.html?


----------



## SkyFall

KaeJS said:


> Oh, are we playing this game again?
> 
> This is my favourite game, SkyFall. It's called the "Game of Guarantees". :biggrin:
> 
> On a (more) serious note, I did take notice of the fall today. SkyFall, if you are serious, you should read this article:
> 
> Aug 29, 2014
> 
> http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-centre/newsList/details.bombardier-transportation20140829bombardierinvestsforthefuturein.bombardiercom.html?


Did it right before closing bell 

Bought at $3.68


----------



## The ruined man

Here is the reason

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...as-first-operator-backs-away/article20279310/


----------



## The ruined man

I had an order in at $3.64, closed at $3.66 today. Call me cheap.


----------



## KaeJS

It will probably fall on Monday, as well, ruined man. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

With the news that was posted, I would probably try to get in at 3.60.
I might do so, but I purposely did not buy yesterday for that fact.


----------



## 6811

KaeJS said:


> It will probably fall on Monday,..


Exchanges are closed Monday but you're probably quite right about them falling on Tuesday.


----------



## KaeJS

Lol. Yes. You are right. Thank you for the correction.
I have to work Monday so it is not a holiday for me!


----------



## Gabs

Watching this one, might open a small position if it dips below $3.60


----------



## The ruined man

KaeJS said:


> It will probably fall on Monday, as well, ruined man. I wouldn't worry about it too much.
> 
> With the news that was posted, I would probably try to get in at 3.60.
> I might do so, but I purposely did not buy yesterday for that fact.


I keep missing my entry point on this, oh well. 
Looks like they have resumed testing on FTV2 and say they are still on track for entry into service in 2015.


----------



## Asterix

Anyone buying at these levels or are you all waiting for a bigger drop? Goldman Sachs has a $3 target on this stock (www.fool.ca/2014/09/16/could-bombar...aign=could-bombardier-inc-shares-drop-below-3).


----------



## SkyFall

my next average down buy is at its 52 weeks low $3.44 (around that price)


----------



## Homerhomer

this one seems to be ready for roll over, lower lows and lower highs on the short term basis, I wouldn't be surprised to see it near 3 bucks in the not too distant future, they have very poor management, lots of debt, and it may be a long time before C series takes off if ever, and by that time others will step in. The airlines can't wait forever.

This one is not for me at this level, maybe for a trade at lower levels.


----------



## pastorash

New 52 week low... sigh...


----------



## 6811

Things are looking up - a bit of good news...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...st-with-major-c-series-order/article20799305/


----------



## Westerly

Tried to pick some up this week to average down at $3.40, was at work and missed it by .02. Still, good news.


----------



## bmoney

This stock is finally catching a bid, broke the 50 day MA, and might close at or above the 200 day MA today. I am not a long term investor in BBD.B, picked up 2000 shares 2 weeks ago for a swing trade. Do you let the profits roll on potential C-series surprise which could move the stock in the $4 or $5 range, or take the money off the table at resistance? I feel BBD.B has always been a trading stock more so than a buy and hold. Thoughts?


----------



## Electric

Since you asked, my thought is that you should liquidate your position tomorrow because there is a good chance they will cut the dividend on Thursday. There is huge risk associated with the C series project, which is maybe 20% of the way through flight testing right now. You never know what problems are going to come up in a test program of that scale.

They have at least 750 million dollars worth of debt due in 2016. There is no reasonable prospect of getting that much cash from C series deliveries, nor can they get it from the train side. If they issue bonds, those are going to be some pretty high yield bonds, which will further burden the company.

The only way this is going to go is that the dividend gets cut to preserve cash. It might happen on Thursday; it might happen next quarter. But it is going to happen, and the only question will be how much the stock will drop. If the market expects it, the effect may be muted. But my guess is that any such move will betray management's lack of faith in the C series program, and will be seen very negatively.


----------



## SkyFall

Yes I did some swing trades with this stock, but what I saw during the pass months isn't reassuring enough for me to keep holding this stock. Yes the C series can push the stock to $4.75-$5 but it's not worth the gamble for me here. I have committed capital to other stocks and cashing in the little gains on BBD.B and have capital ready to deploy in the future isn't something I will say no.


----------



## bmoney

Electric said:


> Since you asked, my thought is that you should liquidate your position tomorrow because there is a good chance they will cut the dividend on Thursday. There is huge risk associated with the C series project, which is maybe 20% of the way through flight testing right now. You never know what problems are going to come up in a test program of that scale.
> 
> They have at least 750 million dollars worth of debt due in 2016. There is no reasonable prospect of getting that much cash from C series deliveries, nor can they get it from the train side. If they issue bonds, those are going to be some pretty high yield bonds, which will further burden the company.
> 
> The only way this is going to go is that the dividend gets cut to preserve cash. It might happen on Thursday; it might happen next quarter. But it is going to happen, and the only question will be how much the stock will drop. If the market expects it, the effect may be muted. But my guess is that any such move will betray management's lack of faith in the C series program, and will be seen very negatively.


This is about as doom & gloom a scenario as you can get, and I'm not buying it. Mark my words, the dividend will not be cut. 

1) The Bombardier family controls 80% of the Class A shares worth approx $1.2 billion, and 54.5% of the total vote. Cancelling the dividend would amount to a $32 million annual paycut, and probably 15%-20% drop in share price, that's almost half the debt. Not to sound Marxist, but this is not in the interests of the capital class.

2) The debt will roll-over. What makes you think that nobody will lend? Banks are fighting over market share in high risk auto loans. There's plenty of money in the system looking for yield.

The C series is a big risk, I agree another delay can set back the stock. Good news so far no orders have been cancelled, but there has been very little visibility. We forget that Boeing had numerous delays with the 787, the first test flight was delayed over 2 years, and it took another 2 years afterwards for the first plane to be delivered.

We made a big move closing over the 200 dma, this hasn't happened since Dec 2012, where the 50 dma crossed over as-well and the stock ran up from $3.60 to $5.20. It could simply be a bit of a short covering ahead of earnings coupled with some positive press, but I am seeing a lot of relative strength in the last few weeks especially during the correction. I might hedge going into earnings and buy an out of the money $3.50 put, and risk only my paper profits. If this move has meaning we could be back over $4 in no time, or under $3.50 should earnings or guidance disappoint.


----------



## Nemo2

Meanwhile:

http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20141029222643



> JEDDAH – Bombardier Transportation has presented the final designs for its Riyadh Metro Line 3 trains to Prince Turki Bin Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz, Governor of Riyadh and Chairman of project promoter the ArRiyadh Development Authority.
> 
> Bombardier is to supply 47 two-car driverless train sets for Line 3 (Orange) as a member of the ArRiyadh New Mobility Consortium. Bombardier said the Innovia 300 cars would ‘reflect Saudi Arabia's culture for beautiful design’ and well as comply with ADA's technical requirements. ‘When public transit is attractive and reliable, then all socio-economic groups can be encouraged to move from road to rail’, said Philippe Casgrain, Vice-President, Europe, Middle East & Africa at Bombardier Transportation’s Systems Division.
> 
> The aluminum car bodies will have steel underframes and composite ends, with large front and side windows to “create a bright and comfortable aesthetic and provide a scenic view.” The “attractive passenger friendly interiors’ will have three classes of accommodation with ‘plentiful” comfortable seating: first class for families and single passengers, family-only, and single passenger only. Each car will have three twin-leaf doors per side, with spacious entrances and wide aisles for fast boarding and smooth passenger flow. There will be designated spaces for passengers with reduced mobility, and the trains will be equipped with passenger information systems, CCTV and two-way communications.
> 
> The cars will have Bombardier’s Mitrac traction equipment designed for rapid acceleration and regenerative braking, with lightweight Flexx Eco bogies. — SG


----------



## humble_pie

^^

this isn't financial news, it's corporate adspeak from bombardier's communications division. The puff is being used as filler by this saudi media.

for investors, it's a non-item. Investors don't care about the niceties of window design or passenger seating. All these specifications would have been included in the actual purchase contract.

the only go-ahead for investors would be the signing of the final contract that turns a soft order into a hard contract. From this news filler, taken from a bombardier press release, it looks as if the final hard signing might have occurred.

in large-equipment industries, penalties in favour of the bidders are built into every stage of a purchase contract. Although this one definitely sounds as if it's going through to completion & execution, nevertheless it's common to see soft orders being cancelled. Even more common is to see them "delayed."

the metric that matters for BBD investors is the number & size of confirmed hard orders being built for delivery, not the quantities of soft orders that appear after transport & aircraft trade shows or exist as shadows on order books.

i've mentioned upthread, at least a year or 2 ago? Bombardier is not a good company for investors to fool around in. The ground transport division is successful. If they would spin out grand transportation separately & leave the failing aircraft division in the hands of the Beaudoin family, then the spin-out might offer something worthwhile to investors.


----------



## SkyFall

That's it! I pulled the plug. I decide that I was already very expose to the market volatility with Alibaba, I might take the very little profit from BBD.B, accept the dividends it pays during all the time I held the shares. And call it a day. If it drops in the future I might swing trade BBD.B again but for the moment It was enough.


----------



## Synergy

Decent results IMO, but the stock price will still take a little haircut.



> Elsewhere on the earnings front, Bombardier Inc. says its third-quarter revenues were up about 20 per cent from the same time last year, rising to $4.9-billion (U.S.). However, net income fell to $74-million or three cents per share, down from $147-million or eight cents per share amid expenses related to a reorganization announced in July, including $57-million for workforce reductions at its aerospace and rail divisions. Earnings ex-items were 12 cents a share, beating estimates of nine cents and its shares dipped three cents to $3.84


Source: TD Alerts


----------



## bmoney

Synergy said:


> Decent results IMO, but the stock price will still take a little haircut.
> 
> 
> 
> Source: TD Alerts


I'm out! Gambled going into earnings and left 2% on the table by not selling yesterday, but I'm happy with a tidy 6.5% profit on the trade.

Now if only my energy stocks would recover that would be a good day.


----------



## Beaver101

Faith and patience is needed on BBD ... going up again, above $4.00 today ... great to know the newer TTC streetcars and subway trains (nicely A/C) were built by Bombardier too. each:


----------



## DividendLuvr

I'm out at $4.06. Another quick profit on a swing trade. Looking forward to getting back in at $3.50 or so.


----------



## Westerly

I've sold 2/3rds, happy to carry the remaining past $5 or get back in at $3.50.


----------



## gibor365

My average price is about 3.8-3.9 ... will sell when it hits 4.20 , otherwise plan similar to Westerly's


----------



## gibor365

Today BBD.B got very close to my sell target price..... in doubt to start selling or not .... TRI gives to BBD highest ranking 10 , forward P/E = 8 , 20% discount to 5 years average.... what are you doing with your shares?


----------



## Synergy

^ Still holding and dripping. I may sell a portion if we I see another 8-10% upside. I think my cost base is now around $3.6


----------



## gibor365

I placed yesteday limit sell of half of my position at $4.35... When they have next earning report?


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> When they have next earning report?


*2015:* Feb.12th/May 7th/July 30th. 
http://ir.bombardier.com/en/event-calendar

+ news summary
http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-centre/newsList.html

Stock has recovered +26% since its low of $3.41 a month ago, but still down -20% from the $5.43 high of Oct.2013.


----------



## pastorash

I may as well share my sob story. Got out, finally, the other day at $4.12, didn't think it would move much higher, I see it's in the 4.20's now. I'm just glad to be out, took my loss, and will get something different now.


----------



## My Own Advisor

Will never buy it. For almost the last decade, see link, no appreciation. 

Compare this to CDN bank stocks, telcos and pipelines over same period, it's a dud.

http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=BBD.B


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ Given my signature, I can't say how much I have made with this stock. 

A consistent roller-coaster.


----------



## gibor365

My Own Advisor said:


> Will never buy it. For almost the last decade, see link, no appreciation.
> 
> Compare this to CDN bank stocks, telcos and pipelines over same period, it's a dud.
> 
> http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=BBD.B


But still you have 2.5% yield that is better that average GIC, esp if you are DRIPing 
Also there is some appreciation, 10 year ago BBD.B price was 2.87 , so its 50% appreciation 
This stock very rarely going below $3.50 , so depends when you buy it


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> 1. DRIPing
> 2. Also there is some appreciation, 10 year ago BBD.B price was 2.87


*1.* From the Sept.30th drip @C$3.528, u would be up 22%.
*2.* You don't need to go back 10 years for that price; it was $2.97 exactly 2 years ago, which then recovered 82% a year later. 

No doubt the 10+ year chart is ugly, especially for the strictly buy/holders. Not a stock for the faint of heart.


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> Also there is some appreciation, *10 year ago BBD.B price was 2.87, so its 50% appreciation*


I should have also pointed out that the 50% mentioned above, was using yesterday's closing price [excluding dividends]. But in that 10 year period, the stock's low/high = $2.10/$8.97 in 04/08 respectively, so that would be 300%+ increase. 

*************

The company's business jet fleet forecast for the next 20 years: 

*- 2014-2023* = 9,200 deliveries @ $264 billion [2004-2013 = 6,125 deliveries/$161 billion].
*- 2024-2033 *= 12,800 deliveries @ $353 billion.
*- total =* $617 billion. 

http://www.bombardier.com/content/d...Business-Aircraft-Market-Forecast_2014-33.pdf

Very ambitious in a jet industry with such hungry competitors. 

Cash consumption given their brand new designs, multiple delays, etc., have been huge. Anyhow, time will tell whether the recent re-structuring of the aerospace will succeed like the transportation side did, and whether the CSeries will be a big success. If things improve, I'm happy to wait/hold 10/20 years [while at the same time taking advantage of the volatile roller-coaster].


----------



## Sherlock

Are yall trading bbd in your tfsas?

I bought and sold this several times over the last 2 years for a small profit each time. Just got out a few days ago at I think 4.13. I think next time it dips, instead of just a few hundred shares I'm gonna get in for maybe 3000. That's a significant part of my portfolio but sometimes you just gotta live dangerously.


----------



## Synergy

Sherlock said:


> Are yall trading bbd in your tfsas?


Yup, TFSA for me. I'm considering adding some to my RRSP if we get a another good buying opportunity.


----------



## SkyFall

Same here it was in my TSFA.


----------



## Beaver101

Synergy said:


> Yup, TFSA for me.


 ... me too and holding in RRSP as well as LIRA. 

Thou shall not fear of BBD given the stats and the fact they manufacture trains and RVs too.


> from Toronto.Gal(thanks!) above.
> 
> The company's business jet fleet forecast for the next 20 years:
> 
> - 2014-2023 = 9,200 deliveries @ $264 billion [2004-2013 = 6,125 deliveries/$161 billion].
> - 2024-2033 = 12,800 deliveries @ $353 billion.
> - total = $617 billion.
> 
> http://www.bombardier.com/content/da...st_2014-33.pdf
> 
> *Very ambitious in a jet industry with such hungry competitors*.


----------



## gibor365

Originally I hold it in RRSP, when it started dropping to 3.8 , 3.6 etc I also bought it into my TFSA (as than didn't have available cash in RRSP)... I don't really like having same stock in 2 different accounts, so Now I want to sell at 4.35 area in my RRSP (as I negotiated some free trades with CIBC and soon will have another TFSA contribution)


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* You don't need to go back 10 years for that price; it was $2.97 exactly 2 years ago, which then recovered 82% a year later.
> 
> .


I checked 10 years on the chart because MOA was talking about decade  My point that even without any trading and DRIP, if you buy and hold BBD.B 10 years ago , you have 50% appreciation and about 25% in dividends... Yes, you could've make more $ investing in other stocks, but the opposite also can happen


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> 1. *I checked 10 years *on the chart because MOA was talking about decade
> 2. My point that even without any trading and DRIP, if you buy and hold BBD.B 10 years ago, you have 50% *appreciation* and about 25% in dividends...
> 3. Yes, *you could've made more* $ investing in other stocks, but the opposite also can happen


*1.* Yes, I understood why you went back to 2004 [a decade in which the stock rose over 300% from its lowest b4 the financial crisis hit, and like countless others did at that time]. 

*2.* And my point had been that the stock had fallen below $3 several times since 04; as early as 09/2012, so there were a lot of opportunities for those that may have missed the big dip back in 04,05,06,09/12. Hence my comment about the *consistent roller-coaster* type stock that many can't stomach, yet others see as opportunities. At any rate, hard not to have made any returns in that period of 10 years; someone who bought then, and did not sell at $4/5/6/7/8/9, and still holding 2day, would still be up 100% excluding dividends, and :10 years = tolerable returns.

*3.* Requiring a higher investment as well, especially for one of the comparisons made [banks]. But take an equal investment of $5K for BBD.B/BMO, at the low of 2004, today, that $5K investment would be worth:

- BBD.B = *$10,234* [$2.10/$4.30] 
- BMO = *$8,330* [$50/$83.30]

- The DRIP power of BBD.B would have been much higher given the # of shares.
- Both companies could have gone bankrupt.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Beaver101 said:


> Thou shall not fear of BBD given the stats and the fact they manufacture trains and *RVs *too.


Thou shalt not forget - surprised Nortel has not been mentioned.

You 4got the bogie portfolio. :biggrin:
http://www.bombardier.com/en/transportation.html

Re the RV, recently rode the Flexity Outlook in downtown T.O. - pretty long compared to the old one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flexity_Outlook_(Toronto_streetcar)


----------



## gibor365

My $4.35 limit sell got triggered , so sold 1/2 position


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ Just a few days ago your exit strategy had been at $4.20, so you got an extra 3.6%. 

You booked about 20% from your purchase price of $3.60 I think - not bad.


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> ^ Just a few days ago your exit strategy had been at $4.20, so you got an extra 3.6%.
> 
> You booked about 20% from your purchase price of $3.60 I think - not bad.


Not really  I bought into RRSP beginning of the year 3 trehches (with lowest price 3.69), and sold in 2 trenches , in summer and now, so my gain is about 14% ... hold another 1/2 position in TFSA and is up about 12% there....
I was thinking about 4.20, but reavaluated exit price and last 3 days had $4.35 limit sell


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> I bought into RRSP beginning of the year 3 trehches (with lowest price *5.69*)....


I think you mean *$3.69, or $4+* [not $5.69] if you're talking about 2014 [high this year was only $4.64]. Anyway, 14% return is not bad either.


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> I think you mean *$3.69, or $4+* [not $5.69] if you're talking about 2014 [high this year was only $4.64]. Anyway, 14% return is not bad either.


Yeap, $3.59 ....edited my post 
In any case, will consider buying more if price drops below $3.70...


----------



## My Own Advisor

OK, "no appreciation" was not really correct. You could have done just as well if not better with other stocks. Dividends aren't everything for sure, total return matters, but 10-years XIU is up over 120% by comparison. 

When did BBD.B start paying a steady dividend, 2009 to present? I recall before that they were all over the place.


----------



## Synergy

The past is the past. What really matters now is what may transpire in the future. Why not add a little spice to your portfolio, take on a little risk, etc.:biggrin: Many are simply trading the range while they wait for better days. It may not be a "core" holding but I don't see the harm in having a little BBD.B. It's an interesting company to follow.


----------



## gibor365

My Own Advisor said:


> OK, "no appreciation" was not really correct. You could have done just as well if not better with other stocks. Dividends aren't everything for sure, total return matters, but 10-years XIU is up over 120% by comparison.
> 
> When did BBD.B start paying a steady dividend, 2009 to present? I recall before that they were all over the place.


How did you get 120%?! Out of curiosity checked google finance: in 10 years BBD.B appreciation 63%, XIU 77%, just for comparisson INTC 50% and 
citigroup -88%


----------



## My Own Advisor

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239832/ishares-sptsx-60-index-etf

10-year.


----------



## Synergy

^^ Perhaps the 120% figure included dividends?


----------



## My Own Advisor

I think it must Synergy, I have the same assumption.


----------



## Toronto.gal

My Own Advisor said:


> 1. *Dividends aren't everything for sure*,
> 2. total return matters, but 10-years XIU is up over *120% by comparison.*
> 3. When did BBD.B start *paying a steady dividend, 2009 to present?*
> 4. I recall before that they were *all over the place.*


*1.* That comment is pretty funny MOA, considering you [and I] are the forum's biggest DRIPpers. :biggrin: *[Remember I read ur excellent blog also]. *
*2.* I suggest you double-check that comparison for urself [BBD.B, excluding div. between Nov.2004/Nov.2014 = approx. 80%, and over 300% mid-decade].
*3.* I did not invest b4 09, but I looked it up to answer - steady div. paid since 08 to present. 
http://ir.bombardier.com/en/share-information/dividends
*4.* The company was not all over the place, but going through a difficult period.

Back in 04, when the stock was barely $2, and company was going through a 3 year re-structuring period with the transportation arm of the business [now it's the aerospace], dividends were not surprisingly suspended for 3 years as well as per above chart. IMO, the company should ax the dividend again, but while they have paid, I have DRIPped them at bargain prices, while increasing my # of shares substantially over the years. What is the worse case-scenario for this company do u think? 

*The 04 transportation re-structuring:*
http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-...l?filter-bu=bombardier&f-year=all&f-month=all

Like everyone else, I have my own bias with respect to other stocks, bad & good ones even [that I would never buy], but I typically don't bash them.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Synergy said:


> It's an interesting company to follow.


A global industry leader.


----------



## bmoney

What a fake out after earnings, dips and then rallies, congrats to the longs.


----------



## Nemo2

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/02/bombardier-austria-idUSL6N0TM0NU20141202?type=companyNews



> Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Austrian capital of Vienna has selected Canadian manufacturer Bombardier to supply as many as 156 trams in a deal worth 562 million euros ($700 million), the city's transport authority said.
> 
> The deal, posted on the authority's website on Monday,_ is still subject to a 10-day period for rivals to post objections_, Wiener Linien said. Bombardier would build the streetcars at a plant in Vienna and start deliveries in 2018, it said.


----------



## JordoR

Huge loss this morning

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/15/bombardier-inc-to-cut-1000-jobs-in-u-s-and-mexican-as-learjet-business-jet-program-halted/

I traded BBD quite a few times last year, buying in the mid 3's and selling at mid 4's, and may look at another entry.


----------



## SkyFall

WHAT! I was expecting a down this morning but no way I was expecting $0.82 drop this morning!


----------



## Homerhomer

SkyFall said:


> WHAT! I was expecting a down this morning but no way I was expecting $0.82 drop this morning!


5B market cap, 1.4B write down, and to boot company with poor management and suspect balance sheet, I think shedding 20% in a day after it had a good run up of late is actually pretty mild.


----------



## pastorash

Good time to buy in low or time to stay away?


----------



## yyz

Been in it a few times probably broken even at best and I'm staying away from this one now.It's not an investment it's a trade


----------



## Toronto.gal

^^^ I agree, I thought it would drop below $3 again, as it did in 2012.


----------



## SkyFall

When is the C-series due?

Few weeks before I might.... might try a swing trade.


----------



## JordoR

I'm going to be eyeing this one next week and see where the dust settles. I'm in no hurry to start a position (and if I miss out that's fine), but I've made some nice money in the past trading BBD


----------



## Toronto.gal

SkyFall said:


> *When is the C-series due?*


Is that a trick question?  

End of 2015, *if* the balance of development/testing goes well. There are 5 test aircrafts, but one of them will only start this year.


----------



## yyz

SkyFall said:


> When is the C-series due?
> 
> Right after the Learjet 85


----------



## SkyFall

Toronto.gal said:


> Is that a trick question?
> 
> End of 2015, *if* the balance of development/testing goes well. There are 5 test aircrafts, but one of them will only start this year.


hahah no trick question, just that with all the delays or whatsoever I lost count hahahha


edited: So far day low $2.99


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ It dropped below $3, just like I had suspected. Nov.2012 low = $2.97.


----------



## Electric

Like I said in October, they are sure to cut the dividend at the next earnings report. Cash burn rate is astonishingly high; they had $3.5 billion at this time last year. Big loans due in 2016, when they were expecting revenue from strong C-series sales which have yet to materialize.

The family bet the company on this new airframe, and it is not completely clear whether it will go their way. The competition has been given time to respond because of project delays. The competitors are all backed by national governments. The Japanese government, in particular, is desperate for the business and is likely to finance sales of Mitsubishi's product.

The annual reports are impenetrable; they remind me of Enron. It is now known that they are desperate enough to be engaging in tax avoidance strategies involving accounts in Liechtenstein, etc.

Here is the kicker - you have to sell many, many commercial jets to make the same profit as the sale of one business jet will produce. No rational company would go ahead with this highly speculative C-series project and cancel the much more profit-intensive Lear project. But you have to remember that Bombardier is controlled by the family, they do not ultimately answer to shareholders.

That said, if you have a certain contrarian streak, I think the current share price values the company at less than what the train division is worth on its own. The train business has its own problems, but it is nice, steady money if they can fix the management and project issues.


----------



## m3s

Electric said:


> I think the current share price values the company at less than what the train division is worth on its own. The train business has its own problems, but it is nice, steady money if they can fix the management and project issues.


What if the plane division loses money? Is the train division worth enough to bail it out as well as the shareholders? I'm staying away from this one because of all the politics involved. Like the brand, but not many brands I like make good investments.


----------



## pastorash

I see it's dropped down into the 2.80's today, though rebounded somewhat. Is this fall just too much?


----------



## SkyFall

Too much compare to what? For the last few months the ''standars'' was around $3.40-$3.90 prices were up and down around these levels. I believe that the ''new standards'' will be around the current sub $3. For now, I won't too it, but if it drops more well at a certain price this can be a nice play to try.


----------



## Electric

At least wait until after they cut the dividend on Feb 12. 

The next chapter will be some kind of serious problem they discover in testing, which they are only 25% (?) through right now. Further delays. Liquidity problems. Then comes the problem of rolling over 0.75B of debt in 2016 - who is going to buy that paper without some kind of government guarantee?


----------



## gibor365

> without some kind of government guarantee


But this actually can happen  BBD.B is a QC's Emblem and they (QC) are masters to get $$$ from Federals


----------



## SkyFall

Electric said:


> At least wait until after they cut the dividend on Feb 12.
> 
> The next chapter will be some kind of serious problem they discover in testing, which they are only 25% (?) through right now. Further delays. Liquidity problems. Then comes the problem of rolling over 0.75B of debt in 2016 - who is going to buy that paper without some kind of government guarantee?


I believe as well that at least another problem will come for the C-series.... and for gibor's point, I think also that the provincial govt will help them if it's too problematic, they have TOO much jobs on the line and with Quebec's current problems..... but hey who knows

for now I am out and maybe one day hehehhehe


----------



## gibor365

> they have TOO much jobs on the line


 if you noticed, they cut 1000 jobs , but all abroad, no cuts (so far) in QC... don't think QC gov't would like qualified workers will leave QC


----------



## Electric

gibor said:


> if you noticed, they cut 1000 jobs , but all abroad, no cuts (so far) in QC...


That is because most of the hiring is offshore, now. For example, they have joint ventures in China for metro train vehicles and monorails. The new cars Vancouver Translink bought are made by the same people who brought you tequila. Which is what the people in Thunder Bay and La Pocatiere will be drinking all day after they shut those factories down.

I'd encourage you to look at what happened with the recent Boston metro tender. The Chinese came with a bid that was, like, 50% of the nearest competing offer. How do you compete with that? That is the business all those people in Quebec are in, North American metro vehicles. They are all doomed.


----------



## gibor365

> The Chinese came with a bid that was, like, 50% of the nearest competing offer.


 From my experience with Chinese goods , I'd pay 50% and get good stuff


----------



## humble_pie

bombardier will lay off 145 out of 430 unionized employees when it shuts down subway railcar production facility in la Pocatiere quebec for six months, starting 28 april 2015.

factory tentatively set to re-open at the end of october 2015.

remaining union employees will be shifted to other factories. Article doesn't say how many non-union will be laid off.

the shutdown is caused by delay from a sub-contractor in delivering the automatic train control system, says the montreal Gazette.

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/bombardier-to-close-la-pocatiere-plant-for-six-months


----------



## SkyFall

Ouch bad news over bad news!


----------



## SkyFall

CEO is stepping down... they are suspending dividends and looking to get in a round of debt financing for 1.5bil... interesting to see how the market will react...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...eps-down-as-bombardier-chief/article22940688/


----------



## Electric

How many CMF points do I win?


----------



## Homerhomer

this is going to get crashed (or go up 30% ;-)

worse than I expected, glad this was only my short term trading stock and am not in it.


----------



## hboy43

SkyFall said:


> CEO is stepping down... they are suspending dividends and looking to get in a round of debt financing for 1.5bil... interesting to see how the market will react...


That is a start. Now if they would only discard the multiple voting shares ... I won't hold my breath.

hboy43


----------



## Toronto.gal

About time for both!

*Hboy:* Bombardier is no Magna, but you never know!

-12% right at the open.


----------



## oob

Toronto.gal said:


> About time for both!
> 
> *Hboy:* Bombardier is no Magna, but you never know!
> 
> -12% right at the open.


-17% on the day right now... The Company could probably use a management shakeup, I'm surprised investors are so negative on this.


----------



## hboy43

Toronto.gal said:


> About time for both!


I see yesterday's developments as good news. I mean it is nothing that has not been discussed for months. The CEO replacement was a nice bonus, an initial crack in the family tightly held control.

hboy43


----------



## Toronto.gal

hboy43 said:


> The CEO replacement was a nice bonus, an initial crack in the family tightly held control.


My thoughts exactly!

*oob:* If you're surprised, then you don't know this stock; a brilliant roller-coaster, just look at the 10 year chart!


----------



## gibor365

New CEO looks as a good replacement


> A former United Technologies Corp executive, Alain Bellemare, will become chief executive on Friday....Bellemare has worked for 18 years at United Technologies, maker of Pratt & Whitney aircraft engines, which power the CSeries. Mostly recently, he headed the company's propulsion and aerospace business.


....

Good thing that I sold half of position in late 2014 at $4.35, bad that didn't sell everything


----------



## Beaver101

Buy, hold and prosper, Canadian-style ... as long as the sky hasn't fallen! :tiger:


----------



## oob

I don't know whether or not to double down at these prices.


----------



## bmoney

I don't follow BBD.B I just dabble every now and then on a trading basis. The stock is sitting at historical support lines around $2.70 and temporarily broke through before rallying again to support. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move lower as follow through action. Also it wasn't long that we saw these levels, and the picture at least in my eyes does not appear any rosier, they have yet to deliver a single c-series and the costs keep going up. 

A few months back there were glimmers of hope, now we are left with a reality that there is a lot left to be accomplished. It's a much more difficult task to work for something, than it is to wish for it. I don't feel there's a lot to hold on to here.


----------



## humble_pie

this poor company, once an illustrious beacon of canadian manufacturing, is dust. 

i can't understand why folks are still willing to waste time on a forgotten idol of yesteryear. 

at least if one is going to day-trade/swing-trade/short-term-trade, one might pick something that has merit ...


----------



## Hiitsme

from today: Bombardier to Issue Cdn$750 Million in equity at $2.21/share

http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-...uecdn750millionapproximate.bombardiercom.html


----------



## thepitchedlink

Crazy...seems to be the theme of the week


----------



## bmoney

It's the right move, they cannot afford to finance more debt. This is a value trap and I don't think I would go long here, better to wait for the c series to fly


----------



## AltaRed

bmoney said:


> It's the right move, they cannot afford to finance more debt.


This is the case with a number of players. The existing shareholder may be pissed at the 'dilution' but putting the balance sheet at risk with higher D/E ratios can be fatal.


----------



## SkyFall

I think Im gonna sit out on this one.... not even gonna try to swing trade on the Cseries.... really dont feel this


----------



## Wormiez

Can someone please explain why Bombardier has two similar share options - BBD-B & BBD.B

And why did BBD-B jump 8.58% today?


----------



## Hiitsme

Wormiez said:


> Can someone please explain why Bombardier has two similar share options - BBD-B & BBD.B
> 
> And why did BBD-B jump 8.58% today?


BBD-B are an issue of preferred shares. Maybe investors with a longer view making a value bet?


----------



## humble_pie

^^ umm, not quite so!

possibly wormiez means the diffference between BBD.A & BBD.B?

the A shares don't trade much but they are the multiple voting common shares. Every A common share has 10 votes, while every B common share has only one. Nearly all the A shares are held by the bombardier-beaudoin family, who therefore control the company. Retired or not, the founder's descendants still rule!

the far more heavily traded B shares trade on toronto. Bombardier doesn't have a senior US stock exchange listing, although the B shares do trade in the foreign section of US pink sheets. B shares have one vote. Canadian options in BBD are drawn upon the B shares.

http://ir.bombardier.com/en/investor-facts/frequently-asked-questions


----------



## Toronto.gal

Wormiez said:


> And why did BBD-B jump *8.58%* today?


You're referring to this class - [you can also view the rest of the classes]
http://ir.bombardier.com/en/share-price?qm_symbol=BBD.PR.B:CA

2 developments yesterday - equity financing was increased, and Transport Canada issued flight permit for the CS300.
http://www.bombardier.com/en/home.html

This Feb. 19th video indicates that even the test pilots are impatient.
http://cseries.com/


----------



## humble_pie

the press release announcing the $3 billion financing & the test flights this coming week has a tired nuance to it.

new BBD chief alain bellemarre is an experienced aircraft executive but he isn't known for brilliant corporate re-engineering builds, which might be what bombardier needs.

it's believed that bellemarre will be able to pry some dollars out of united technologies' pratt & whitney division, builders of the Cseries engines, for some of the cost overruns bombardier suffered due to engine failure in the new planes. Yawn.

meanwhile analysts are fretting these days over the slowing ground transport division.

as for borrowing/taking government funding directly, this is never how bombardier gets its gummint gravy. As the news release elaborately recites, BBD didn't have to ask governments for a single penny of the current $3 billion financing.

instead, bombardier's government aid gravy gets doled out invisibly, the same way it gets doled out for other aircraft manufacturers in other countries. It gets offered to the buyers of BBD aircraft. These are mostly foreign airlines or foreign military or foreign firefighting operations.

such gravy can be direct subsidies to the buyers, or it can take the form of trade concessions or other economic benefits granted to foreign governments whose national airlines or whose military can be enticed into buying bombardier planes.


----------



## forrory1

http://business.financialpost.com/n...ail-business-as-aircraft-unit-falters-sources


What does this mean for existing share holds? Do we end up owning both? If so at what % split?


RL


----------



## humble_pie

bombardier's new CEO Alain Bellemare eyes the sale of its ground transport division while his boss, former CEO & chairman Pierre Beaudoin, assures a Quebec cabinet minister on friday that bombardier's rail division is not for sale at all.

apparently the operative word is "consolidation." Bombardier's rail division might not be for sale, but it might be up for consolidation instead, possibly with another big manufacturer such as Siemens.

is there already a hint of a split between brand-new CEO Bellemare & the ruling beaudoin-bombardier family dynasty?

just last week, Bellemare brought in US aviation veteran Fred Cromer as commercial aircraft president to nursemaid the troubled C-series. Out, abruptly, went the existing C-series top executive.

sell the rail division for $5 billion? what an astounding departure. It would leave the ailing aircraft division dangerously circling the airport in a holding pattern until a) the C-series successfully launches, or b) the $5 billion in fuel runs out.

it's clear that no banks or governments, certainly not quebec's caisse de depot, were willing to step up to the loan plate, so the next logical step would be the rail sacrifice.

if it weren't for the US aviation experience of bellemare & cromer, i'd write off canada's former transport giant as another norTel failure headed for the mausoleum.

but it *is* bellemare & cromer now, there's a long shot they might pull it off, the market obviously likes the new broom & the change in direction, so i'll linger.

in the short term, there's more bad news though. Russia's Ilyushin Finance said last week that it's re-evaluating its order for 49 C-series planes. IFC is not happy with the numerous C-Series delays nor is it happy with canada's export development corporation, the moscow agency complained in an email to the national post.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ons-for-rail-business-report/article23875363/

http://business.financialpost.com/n...gest-cseries-customer-re-evaluating-its-order


----------



## Jimmyrigconstruction

Just bought 775 at $2.60. Hoping to turn $2000 into $4000 in the next year. I think I'll have to trade this one a few times to get anywhere! Anyone else hoping for a good turnaround once some C-series news starts coming out in the next few months? It's been AWFULLY QUIET!!


----------



## bmoney

I just hope that shareholders realize at this point it's gambling not investing. Good luck longs, I hope it pays off. It pains me to see another Canadian company struggling.


----------



## protomok

So tempting to get in at these levels. BBD-B closed at $1.91 Friday...just above a 22 year low. IMHO there is no way the current 4.25B market share is accurate unless you anticipate bankruptcy or break up. The EV is 8.9 billion. Even if the C-Series got killed (extremely unlikely) I still think between rail and their regional + private jets they would still be worth way more than their current price.

Still super risky for sure, but for a RRSP with > 10 year hold I think this could pay off. Anyone jumping in?


----------



## dubmac

protomok said:


> So tempting to get in at these levels. BBD-B closed at $1.91 Friday...just above a 22 year low. Still super risky for sure, but for a RRSP with > 10 year hold I think this could pay off. Anyone jumping in?


A Morningstar analyst wrote the following review on the company in May 2015. share dilution, more debt, high expenditures...all ugly words to read!
*Narrow-moat Bombardier reported terrible results for 2014 after missing all of its targets except aircraft deliveries. Further, spending is set to accelerate in 2015 compared with 2014 and initial views in 2013. This means the firm is going to have to dilute existing shareholders to raise $600 million in additional funds. Further, no dividend will be paid to shareholders. We are reducing our fair value estimate to CAD 2 from CAD 2.80 to account for the sale of additional shares, more debt, and higher capital expenditures.*


----------



## protomok

^ Right, pretty terrible news! But I think the share dilution, increased debt, removal of the dividend, etc. are priced in at this point.

I think this company is worth way more than 4 billion. Eventually they're going to start selling the CSeries (early - mid next year if we can believe their latest estimate ). Not to mention the fact that they have several other businesses such as transportation/rail and the business jets which seem to get ignored by analysts.

I could be wrong but I think think 10 years from now this company could easily double if not more.


----------



## pastorash

I sold my BBD stock at a small loss at $4.12 in November. It's a roll of the dice now to expect anything for a while. All in or all out.

Obviously, I'm all out.


----------



## Synergy

I'm sure glad I got out when I did. It was nothing more than a little bit of fun money, but I prefer not to lose! When the dividend was cut that was my signal.


----------



## MrMatt

Just seems to risky, why bother when there are better bets out there?


----------



## Nordic

Watch for a solid net income figure next week (perhaps around 100 mil) and possible positive guidance regarding improved cash flow over the next year. Could see a significant short squeeze (BBD currently 3 most shorted company on the TSX) where everyone scrambles to cover their position in a buying frenzy. 
So much pessimism priced into BBD right now along with price suppression from the mass-shorting, any semi-good news should have a big effect to the upside. Thursday is gonna be very interesting.

Make no mistake, this is a highly speculative play, but BBD has massive potential upside over the next twelve months. Note that the C Series is on pace to be certified around the end of this year (flight testing is roughly 83% complete with an estimated month and a half left). Once certification is complete that removes a big barrier to receiving more orders from airlines. Even without taking account any future orders, the current orders will keep CSeries production busy at least into 2018.

Edit:
Oh and it should definitely be noted the Quebec government will most likely bail out BBD if they ever get into any serious trouble. That's very important to remember.


----------



## Nordic

Shorts seem to be covering a day ahead of earnings; hoping for a squeeze tomorrow.


----------



## gibor365

pastorash said:


> I sold my BBD stock at a small loss at $4.12 in November. It's a roll of the dice now to expect anything for a while. All in or all out.
> 
> Obviously, I'm all out.


Sold about same price/date, but unfortunately only 1/2 position with modest gain... 2nd 1/2 got really creamed


----------



## Synergy

So much for a short squeeze!


----------



## Nordic

Synergy said:


> So much for a short squeeze!


I should have clarified that I personally own the preferreds, series 4. Up 6% so far today. 
Was hoping for a squeeze on the commons to push up my preferreds a bunch though!


----------



## protomok

I added a small position in my RRSP on the drop today at $1.75. Hoping for a double or a triple 5-10 years from now.


----------



## Synergy

Nordic said:


> I should have clarified that I personally own the preferreds, series 4. Up 6% so far today.
> Was hoping for a squeeze on the commons to push up my preferreds a bunch though!


I'm not sure what the ticker is for series 4, but most of the preferred shares looked like they got hit today along with the common stock.


----------



## Nordic

Synergy said:


> I'm not sure what the ticker is for series 4, but most of the preferred shares looked like they got hit today along with the common stock.


BBD.PR.C or BBD-C (google finance)
Up 7.5% and then drifted all the way back to 0% by the end of trading.


----------



## Electric

Market cap is $3B and heading lower. Debt is approaching $10B. Significant cash flow from C series will not likely materialize until 2017. They will have to sell hundreds of C series before they make their first dollar of profit. They are selling shares in the revenue-producing train business, diluting existing shareholders; seems like total desperation.

Stock is unlikely to be headed to zero, though. Quebec government will not allow it to fold.


----------



## jamesko

Electric said:


> Market cap is $3B and heading lower. Debt is approaching $10B. Significant cash flow from C series will not likely materialize until 2017. They will have to sell hundreds of C series before they make their first dollar of profit. They are selling shares in the revenue-producing train business, diluting existing shareholders; seems like total desperation.
> 
> Stock is unlikely to be headed to zero, though. Quebec government will not allow it to fold.


but if they keep loosing money, government can't pump money into a black hole


----------



## Nordic

Flight testing for the C100 looks to be nearing completion (and with it an end to the cash burn attributable to it). I would be getting very antsy going into the next few months if I was holding a short position in this.


----------



## Nordic

Case in point: the last two trading days.

More to come over the next year.


----------



## protomok

^ Yes, finally some good news for a change! Certification tests 80% complete, range is better than expected, I can't wait to fly in this thing.

No idea what will happen to the stock short term but once they start selling C-Series I see this stock bouncing back quite nicely.


----------



## Nordic

protomok said:


> ^ Yes, finally some good news for a change! Certification tests 80% complete, range is better than expected, I can't wait to fly in this thing.
> 
> No idea what will happen to the stock short term but once they start selling C-Series I see this stock bouncing back quite nicely.


Wow did the shorts ever get crushed again today. :rugby:


----------



## Nordic

Another 29% gain on the commons today. Shorts getting massacred...


----------



## Value

Lol you sure called t Nordic!
WTG!

As for I, I was figuring the squeeze would have happened later in the year! Much closer to certification! Ouch...

Well, at least I only sold half lol


----------



## Electric

Since I successfully predicted the dividend cut earlier in the thread I am going to go out on a limb and make two more predictions:

1. The IPO will be mainly about the signalling business.
2. The overture to Airbus, which never made any sense, is just to prime the press and the public for the government bailout. "We tried everything."


----------



## noobs

jeez, QC gov says it wants to help and the stock jumps 10%.. right after I sell... FML


----------



## HaroldCrump

Bailout was a foregone conclusion. Rumors have been going on for several months.
Interesting thing is they may be getting some subsidies, bailouts & "help" not just from the QC govt. but foreign govt. too (Ireland).


----------



## GoldStone

Ottawa to decide next week on possible financial assistance for Bombardier
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...al-assistance-for-bombardier/article27030710/



> The incoming federal Liberal government says it will render a decision on an outstanding request for federal assistance from Bombardier after it takes power next week.
> 
> “We are in the process of being briefed on the file, are following it closely, and a decision‎ will be made once the government is sworn-in on November 4,” Dan Lauzon, a Liberal spokesman said.
> 
> This commitment from Justin Trudeau’s Liberals comes the same day the Quebec government announced a $1-billion bailout for Montreal company as it struggles to get its much-delayed C-series aircraft out the door.
> 
> Bombardier approached Ottawa earlier this year – before the summer – seeking a cash injection to help it operate while it was working on its C Series. The aircraft maker was seeking a financial arrangement in the form of a repayable loan of about $350-million.
> 
> The now-defeated Conservative government appointed an external auditor to scrutinize Bombardier’s financial condition, a normal part of deliberations in such circumstances.
> 
> In 2008, Ottawa extended a $350-million repayable loan to Bombardier to help with the development of the C Series jet. It’s not known how or when Bombardier will repay that money.
> 
> This year, Bombardier asked for further assistance under similar terms.


Giving money to Bombardier is not "real change".


----------



## AltaRed

But....but.....but it's Quebec!


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

"Giving money to Bombardier is not "real change". "

To the Liberals a billion dollars of taxpayer's money for Quebec is small change.


----------



## cn_habs

This BS bailout is basically a wealth transfer of our tax dollars to the controlling Beaudoin family while the all B-class shareholders keep losing their hard-earned money. 

Reverse split is already in the horizon IMHO.


----------



## GoldStone

From my twitter feed:










yup


----------



## james4beach

Wait... so buying & holding a well-known, respected name _doesn't_ necessarily make you money?

This is a good reminder of the dangers of picking individual stocks and blindly holding them "forever". In my opinion, stock picking is a process that requires that you constantly re-evaluate your holdings. It's a lot of work. Any stock can turn sour and it's not obvious when it happens.

BBD.B total returns:

18 years: -75%
15 years: -93%
10 years: -37%
5 years: -70%

I'm not opposed to stock picking but it also requires an exit plan, and a strategy to monitor your positions so that you can get out of a crashing stock.


----------



## james4beach

In an effort to be helpful, I'll share the kinds of criteria I look for to dump a stock
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBD/B.TO&p=W&st=2005-11-04&en=(today)&id=p91254636650

I mentioned one of my techniques earlier: watching the 200 day moving average (shown on this chart as the 40 week moving average). A stock that is staying well below its 200 day average for long periods is not doing too well; it's declining. This isn't a black-and-white indicator, it's just one consideration.

Next, look at volume (shown in the lower chart). Notice that in 2014, we start to see some high selling volume (red bars). Then at the start of 2015 *much heavier selling volume hits*. Heavy volume on declines is a good indication that large holders are dumping lots of shares. When an institution dumps millions of shares, it drives up the volume and drives down the price. It is impossible to hide this signature.

Important to note -- both increases in volume occur as the stock falls below its 200 day moving average. That's not a random coincidence. Institutions, mutual funds, pension funds etc all look at these same indicators.

Price and technical analysis is not a predictive technique, but a way to read and listen to what the market is telling you.

So what I'm seeing here is: 2014 and especially 2015 show very heavy selling and institutions are dumping shares. They believe they must get out of the stock. I usually take that as a strong indication that I must get out, too.


----------



## GoldStone

Trudeau says he's not shutting door to idea of aid for Bombardier - The Globe and Mail

I said it before and I will say it again:

Bombardier bailout = business as usual. Kiss good bye to your sexy "real change".


----------



## james4beach

The multi-year price action on Bombardier is horrific. This is the chart of a crashing stock on its way to delisting.

If you hold the stock, my advice is to mark it for disposal and to GET OUT (maybe over a month or two if you're unwilling to sell at the current $1.25).

I've posted before that if you hold a portfolio of individual stocks, you have to actually monitor and re-analyze them... Bombardier is an example why. When it looks like it's actually going to collapse to zero, you must get out of a stock.


----------



## humble_pie

when was bombardier ever sexy, in recent years?

reportedly the ground transport division, or a good portion of the ground transport division, will go to the caisse de depot, after BBD was unable to sell it. This is actually very bad news imho. This is the opposite of sexy.


EDIT not all is lost for Investment quebec though. The fastest growing canadian company in recent months is montreal's trendy men's outfitter Frank and Oak.

its head office might be in Mile End QC but its pop-up shops are appearing in toronto & the US.

james could you pass by their website & tell us if you'd be comfortable wearing their gear? would you be happy with a haircut by either of the 2 sartorial franksters?

me i think their retail brand will fly bigtime. Casual but responsible. Inviting people into the store for a coffee & a tryon, then sending them to their phones & tablets to order is strategic i thought.

https://ca.frankandoak.com/?utm_sou...rm=franknoak&utm_content=80328465026&device=c


----------



## humble_pie

is this considered cool? idk

he's franken oak

.


----------



## james4beach

That seems relatively fashionable, I'd probably wear it ... though his coat looks a bit too small


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> ... though his coat looks a bit too small




that's what's so cool

tiny jackets are fashionable, buttons have to strain at buttonholes, fabric has to look like it's splitting, sleeves have to be too short & well above wrists.


----------



## Nordic

james4beach said:


> The multi-year price action on Bombardier is horrific. This is the chart of a crashing stock on its way to delisting.
> 
> If you hold the stock, my advice is to mark it for disposal and to GET OUT (maybe over a month or two if you're unwilling to sell at the current $1.25).
> 
> I've posted before that if you hold a portfolio of individual stocks, you have to actually monitor and re-analyze them... Bombardier is an example why. When it looks like it's actually going to collapse to zero, you must get out of a stock.


You're only looking at technical analysis though; it's horrific mainly because they had cash problems. Once they start pumping out the C-series look for the commons to move up big time. I'll make a friendly bet with you that bbd.b will be trading above $1.80 in a year's time.


----------



## james4beach

Since they will inevitably reverse split, maybe we should make the bet based on market cap 

I certainly hope the equity can recover. It just seems like the odds are stacked against them. If institutions believed that they could recover from this, they wouldn't have dumped so many shares. The way I see it, the heavy institutional dumping is a "vote" on what the experts think the outcome will be.

Right now Bombardier is worth $2.82 billion. So you're saying that you believe in a year, they will be worth over $4 billion?


----------



## m3s

Good friend flew a C-series today. Claims it's very quiet, and has new car smell. Skinny jeans weren't allowed on the flight deck

Time to buy, james?


----------



## Nordic

james4beach said:


> Since they will inevitably reverse split, maybe we should make the bet based on market cap
> 
> I certainly hope the equity can recover. It just seems like the odds are stacked against them. If institutions believed that they could recover from this, they wouldn't have dumped so many shares. The way I see it, the heavy institutional dumping is a "vote" on what the experts think the outcome will be.
> 
> Right now Bombardier is worth $2.82 billion. So you're saying that you believe in a year, they will be worth over $4 billion?


Yeah I'll take that market cap bet


----------



## james4beach

I hope their C-series is a big success. I'm not the kind of character to buy a stock like this (betting on a turn-around story) but maybe others on the forum are!


----------



## humble_pie

the gummints are never going to allow this company to fail. They (BBD) could be manufacturing pony cart axles & the gummints will never allow em to fail.

m3 do other new planes have new car smell? 

i bet quelques fringues from frankenoaks have new car smell. Either new car or havana cut leaf.


----------



## humble_pie

.

_*Hi. I just fell out of this plane. Sort of. Can u help me.*_

.


----------



## james4beach

humble_pie that was post of the day! hilarious!


----------



## james4beach

New lows on BBD.B today. Closed at 1.02

That's down 30% since my warnings in November that it has the profile of a crashing stock that one must dump.


----------



## Value

Well the stock yo-yos a lot...

It's also down 30 +% from the highs post certification last months...

If you ask me, this one is a nice opportunity. With production ramped up and first deliveries expected for Q2... It's just waiting for any positive news for a rally... An order, a federal bail out or first deliveries... I think it's a matter of time before it's over 1,50 dollars...

For sure, the fact that United would chose Boeing hurt the stock, but if Delta is a buyer, it's going back up huge! 

Boeing and Airbus is trying to hurt BBD big time by selling their planes on a lost, but they can't kill BBD... it's going to rally eventually. 

In my opinion anyways.


----------



## Twixer

Value said:


> Well the stock yo-yos a lot...
> 
> It's also down 30 +% from the highs post certification last months...
> 
> If you ask me, this one is a nice opportunity. With production ramped up and first deliveries expected for Q2... It's just waiting for any positive news for a rally... An order, a federal bail out or first deliveries... I think it's a matter of time before it's over 1,50 dollars...
> 
> For sure, the fact that United would chose Boeing hurt the stock, but if Delta is a buyer, it's going back up huge!
> 
> Boeing and Airbus is trying to hurt BBD big time by selling their planes on a lost, but they can't kill BBD... it's going to rally eventually.
> 
> In my opinion anyways.


I think their main problem is P&W (GTF) geared turbofan engine. It is a new revolutionary design. This engine is fuel efficient but needs more time to cool down. At busy airports it could cost plane to lose its take-off slot. Qatar Airways was the first to receive A320neo with P&W geared turbo fan but postponed. Bombardier has no other engine options. Airbus and Boeing do. 

If GTF turns to be less good then expected or inferior to GE Leap engines, CSeries is in big problems. A320neo customers just started to receive planes with P&W GTF engines. If it performs well it will help Bombardier sales. The first was scheduled to go in service yesterday but delayed due to engine problems. 

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/2016/01/22/lh-320neo-fra/


----------



## gibor365

BBD.B together with Nortel, RIM, ATI used to be very few of Canadian (non O&G) "flagships" ... Now, neither "flagships" nor O&G  and maybe soon no Canada?!


----------



## Value

Twixer said:


> I think their main problem is P&W (GTF) geared turbofan engine. It is a new revolutionary design. This engine is fuel efficient but needs more time to cool down. At busy airports it could cost plane to lose its take-off slot. Qatar Airways was the first to receive A320neo with P&W geared turbo fan but postponed. Bombardier has no other engine options. Airbus and Boeing do.
> 
> If GTF turns to be less good then expected or inferior to GE Leap engines, CSeries is in big problems. A320neo customers just started to receive planes with P&W GTF engines. If it performs well it will help Bombardier sales. The first was scheduled to go in service yesterday but delayed due to engine problems.
> 
> http://airwaysnews.com/blog/2016/01/22/lh-320neo-fra/



Hey Thanks Twixer... Indeed my only concern for the compagny is the technical aspects of the plane which is hard to understand for an outsider such as myself!

Didn't realise they were having such engine concerns from the industry. However, it does not seem like a huge problems for airlines to have to wait a little longer and let others go ahead... But what do I know about this?

Anyways, I will definitely have to check that out and take it into consideration... That could leave BBD very vulnerable.


----------



## james4beach

BBD.B is now a penny stock, $0.99


----------



## LBCfan

don't worry, JT will be there with our billions.


----------



## multifaceted

humble_pie said:


> that's what's so cool
> 
> tiny jackets are fashionable, buttons have to strain at buttonholes, fabric has to look like it's splitting, sleeves have to be too short & well above wrists.


This is why I stopped watching HNIC - Boy George looks (and sounds) well um like a boy with a tiny suit!


----------



## multifaceted

Ok, fairly new here folks. I am having a flashback to when TSE:AC was around $ 2. I bought it with the assumption that the Govt wasnt going to let "Canada's airline" collapse. It dribbled down then bounced and recovered. I am thinking the same here - Wont the govt step in here and inject more cash? Even Dion mentions Bombardier in his discussion about lifting sanctions against Iran for goodness sakes.

Very interested in comments - please burst my balloon, prop me up!

Thanks all


----------



## james4beach

Down another 10% today on 4x normal volume, yikes.

The thing you have to remember about bailouts is that they don't generally preserve equity value. In fact, equity tends to get destroyed during bailouts.

The government sees its job as not letting the company collapse (meaning employment and the business). It's not the government's job to preserve the shareholder equity.


----------



## doctrine

This is pricing in corporate reorganization. Permanent shareholder damage has occurred. AC is not a great example. If you were a shareholder from 2002, you would not think it was a good investment.


----------



## multifaceted

james4beach said:


> Down another 10% today on 4x normal volume, yikes.
> 
> The thing you have to remember about bailouts is that they don't generally preserve equity value. In fact, equity tends to get destroyed during bailouts.
> 
> The government sees its job as not letting the company collapse (meaning employment and the business). It's not the government's job to preserve the shareholder equity.


It's a great point. Not exactly a model of a well run company and news that they lost latest Iran deal isnt good.


----------



## AltaRed

Heaven help the taxpayer if Ottawa bails out BBD. This is a giant vortex. It will be graft to a family controlled company. IF Ottawa decides to do anything, a condition should be loss of family control...forever.


----------



## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> IF Ottawa decides to do anything, a condition should be loss of family control...forever.



that might work. 

it's not just any old family controlled corporation. Canada profoundly aspires to host an aerospace industry & bombardier was originally not only the flagship of the fleet, it had begun life as federal gummint subsidiary Canadair. A crown corporation once upon a time, i believe.


----------



## donald

Hey Humble-are beards on the way out for young men in 2016?lol
serious question
bread trend exploded
I think clean shaven shauve look will be the in thing
Man buns are def out
"if he comes with a beard he better be able to change a car tire"


----------



## Value

I'm somewhat surprised with the downturn here... I was expecting the certification to put a bar under this title and support it...
I still think it's an opportunity, but it's sure hurting for now... all I can do is wait and see... Crossing fingers for new cserie orders to arrive and for the delivery of the first airplanes for Q2 as predicted. Perhaps help from Justin... 
I'm sitting on it...


----------



## multifaceted

Value said:


> I'm somewhat surprised with the downturn here... I was expecting the certification to put a bar under this title and support it...
> I still think it's an opportunity, but it's sure hurting for now... all I can do is wait and see... Crossing fingers for new cserie orders to arrive and for the delivery of the first airplanes for Q2 as predicted. Perhaps help from Justin...
> I'm sitting on it...


The problem is even if the Feds throw them money, they still need to close deals and make money. It seems they are late to the party in Iran and other markets that are buying planes. Fundamentals are broken IMO


----------



## Value

Agreed, but I continue thinking they can turn it around... The Feds could help, somewhat, but the need orders... Also agreed, that Canada is ridiculously slow about Iran's sanctions


----------



## humble_pie

Value said:


> I'm somewhat surprised with the downturn here... I was expecting the certification to put a bar under this title and support it...
> I still think it's an opportunity, but it's sure hurting for now... all I can do is wait and see... Crossing fingers for new cserie orders to arrive and for the delivery of the first airplanes for Q2 as predicted. Perhaps help from Justin...
> I'm sitting on it...



value u are definitely a *small-r* romantic investor

romance is fine but some hard-nosed candidates could offset the fine embroidery. You were liking olives? perhaps canadian supermarkets might be a good defensive choice ...

startup health cares fit the prescription? maybe swallow a couple of Mercks as well, to be on the safe side ...

storybook bombardier that's sinking under its C-series woes? there are big, brawling, tough-as-nails US aerospace defence industries, think raytheon, grumman, united technologies, boeing ...


----------



## noobs

BBD preparing for a reverse split so they can stay on the TSX... oooff ca va mal..


----------



## james4beach

Totally foreseeable as I wrote two months ago ("they will inevitably reverse split"). Reverse splits are the death knell in most cases. Usually gives a little pop on retail investor enthusiasm, and institutions sell into the strength to dump the rest of their shares.


----------



## Value

:cower:
I can`t look at this one anymore... 

@humble, I was thinking to could pull off a nice turn around with fresh government capital and the certification... Seemed legitimate at the time, but with no new orders, everyone is getting impatient... + when it broke the 1$ support, all hell went down!

Oh and defensive suparmarket are quite overvalued to me... Loblaw at 36 pe... No thanks... Metro is more attractive at 20, but still, don't see much to gain from these ones... I did buy some WMT when it dropped in the fall, do they sale olives? Hmmm olives...


----------



## james4beach

I'm starting to think about speculating in Bombardier bonds. See:
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/69330-Distressed-bonds-(junk-debt)


----------



## humble_pie

Value said:


> :cower:
> I can`t look at this one anymore...
> 
> @humble, I was thinking to could pull off a nice turn around with fresh government capital and the certification... Seemed legitimate at the time, but with no new orders, everyone is getting impatient... + when it broke the 1$ support, all hell went down!
> 
> Oh and defensive suparmarket are quite overvalued to me... Loblaw at 36 pe... No thanks... Metro is more attractive at 20, but still, don't see much to gain from these ones... I did buy some WMT when it dropped in the fall, do they sale olives? Hmmm olives...




value i'm so sorry about your bombardier. No one foresaw such price destruction.

i haven't owned this co in years so have nothing creative or optimistic to say. From a distance, it looks as if they are locked into a losing battle. Impossible to cancel the booked sales & dump the C-series. Far, far too late now. But who will order the planes going forward, how can a new buyer count on this company to deliver?

one reads that even sales of BBD's old standbys - the clumsy, ugly water bombers, once one of the world's most popular forest fire fighting models - one hears that even these sales are drooping.

just upthread james4 has another nervy idea, one might even say reckless. If i were in your shoes i wouldn't buy bombardier distressed bonds with the hope to recuperate losses, even though the idea does have a certain madcap crazy-like-a-fox appeal. I'd look, instead, to where i had enormous paper gains, so i could begin planning for end-of-2016 tax loss/gain selling, in order to snare some gains in net neutral by offsetting them with losses.

but i wouldn't sell bombardier at present. The year is still young. You perhaps already have a big paper loss, would there be that much more of a loss if BBD goes to zero? meanwhile there's at least a fleeting chance of upside as 2016 plays out. The feds might come through with a bailout.

i agree with you that quebec's established food industries - saputo, lassonde, metro-richelieu - are sky-high. I don't own any. Alas, also sky-high are the big US aerospace defence stocks. I don't own any of these either. The sad fact is that everything decent is still priced to the moon, except energy & mining.

here's a crumb of an idea from a poor silly pie, though. Some cmf members like infrastructure. We've liked infrastructure since before the liberals were elected, so the promised new gummint initiatives only add positives to the story. SNC, bird, aecon, what used to be called genivar but now has a new name that no one can ever remember.


----------



## tkirk62

Genivar is now WSP


----------



## Value

Air Canada to the rescue!


----------



## james4beach

Fantastic move in the stock, wow!

No position


----------



## Value

If a few good news could follow, I`ll be very happy... I'm hoping they will not let it go back to the negative status quo... 
I still think there is lots of potential upside to come... Any order, federal aid, upcomming delivery to swiss airline, certification of CS300... 

I'm just hoping it would not drop back to 0,80 till then, which it very well could...

The bonds were a no go for you?

CUSIP	FACE VALUE	ISSUER COUPON MATURITY PRICE YIELD S&P	DBRS	
097751AE1 100 000 BOMBARDIER INC 7,35 2026-12-22	65,75 13,44 B	NR 


Somehow, it seems like B is still overated for this investment...

You know, preferred shares have a yeild as good or better... And they are more liquid should you decide to give up on BBD...


----------



## Twixer

Right now, key thing for BBD is that P&W solves problem with engine cooling. Until that is done firm orders are unlikely. I hope that is the only problem with the plane. 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-singapore-airshow-qatarairways-idUKKCN0VP15J

And AC was letter of intent.

Trading at Singapore Air Show ends on Friday. So far they sold no CSeries plane. 

BBD stock could be very volatile on Friday.


----------



## noobs

couldn't resist and bought some again ahead of next Tuesday's announcement...


----------



## Value

noobs said:


> couldn't resist and bought some again ahead of next Tuesday's announcement...


Should be a nice short time gain


----------



## Electric

If you want to make a bet on BBD, I'd be inclined to buy the bonds. The government has basically said they are too big to fail. The bondholders are first in line if the company does fail. The yield is quite good - without looking, I'd say 10% or so.


----------



## james4beach

Electric said:


> If you want to make a bet on BBD, I'd be inclined to buy the bonds. The government has basically said they are too big to fail. The bondholders are first in line if the company does fail. The yield is quite good - without looking, I'd say 10% or so.


I share your opinion. If you're going to gamble on this, why not go with the bonds since the bondholders get priority in case of insolvency? If the company collapses, the equity will be worth zero but the bonds will still be worth _something._

I posted in another thread at the time the Bombardier bonds were yielding 13.4%
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showt...-(junk-debt)?p=1018746&viewfull=1#post1018746

That's a 13.4% annualized return for the next decade until the bonds mature in 2026. I felt like they should be yielding more, though, and I didn't think the price was low enough when I spotted this at iTrade.


----------



## hboy43

Hi:

BBD.B is the last egregious loss situation in my portfolio with ACB of $2.04. Apparently Delta is seriously considering buying 75 C series planes. I would hope this development (actual Delta order that is) would kill the idea of the Federal government investing $1B and further diluting me. I might not be unhappy if Quebec stepped away too, as I understand as of a few weeks ago, Quebec had not actually put the money in. 

This might get me near break even or a bit better. What a difference 3 months makes.

hboy43


----------



## Value

hboy43 said:


> Hi:
> 
> BBD.B is the last egregious loss situation in my portfolio with ACB of $2.04. Apparently Delta is seriously considering buying 75 C series planes. I would hope this development (actual Delta order that is) would kill the idea of the Federal government investing $1B and further diluting me. I might not be unhappy if Quebec stepped away too, as I understand as of a few weeks ago, Quebec had not actually put the money in.
> 
> This might get me near break even or a bit better. What a difference 3 months makes.
> 
> hboy43



Might take a month a so, but you could just get it... Delta's management said they would announce their decision next month during the Q1 call. Then the leak or rumors started to show.

Anyways, there is a lot of potential catalyst on this one... but for sure a huge Delta order and actual delivery of the first CS100 would be big!


----------



## Nordic

Increased my holdings of the BBD.PR.C (BBD-C on google finance) fixed-rate preferreds by 60% this past week. Betting on the Delta order, and will be getting a generous yield as I wait for C-Series to gain traction over the next few years.


----------



## Value

Nordic said:


> Increased my holdings of the BBD.PR.C (BBD-C on google finance) fixed-rate preferreds by 60% this past week. Betting on the Delta order, and will be getting a generous yield as I wait for C-Series to gain traction over the next few years.


Hello Nordic,

I also have a big position on the PR-C. Bought them last week for the dividend and decided to stick with them... It's an amazing yielder, the only downside is the title will never go much above 23ish... and theorically never should go over 25$, even if it becomes clear to everyone that BBD is here to stay.


----------



## Nordic

Value said:


> Hello Nordic,
> 
> I also have a big position on the PR-C. Bought them last week for the dividend and decided to stick with them... It's an amazing yielder, the only downside is the title will never go much above 23ish... and theorically never should go over 25$, even if it becomes clear to everyone that BBD is here to stay.


Are you implying that a reasonably-possible 77% capital appreciation potential on a fixed-rate preferred (currently yielding almost 12%) is anything but a huge upside?

I have thought about what would happen if/when the prefs 'max out' their share-price appreciation in the low 20's; I'm likely to liquidate half my preferred holdings and buy the common shares at that point.


----------



## Value

Nordic said:


> Are you implying that a reasonably-possible 77% capital appreciation potential on a fixed-rate preferred (currently yielding almost 12%) is anything but a huge upside?
> 
> I have thought about what would happen if/when the prefs 'max out' their share-price appreciation in the low 20's; I'm likely to liquidate half my preferred holdings and buy the common shares at that point.


Just depends on what it's compared too... If at the same time bbd.b rallies to 4 dollars, 77% is not much... However if everyone jumps on the preferred and there is little movement for bbd.b, then it's lots... 

Then again, one should consider that the B and D preferred still have a 3-4 fold or so potential upside...


----------



## humble_pie

value are you not concerned by covert dilution of BBD dot B stock?

the quebec gummint gave bombardier a billion dollars but in return they received what's billed as a "strategic partnership" in the C series. No details supplied. Does the strategic partnership mean quebec city receives first profits from C series sales if, as & when? wouldn't that mean holders of BBD common would be pushed aside? does this partnership not mean, in effect, that the entire C series business has been stripped out of bombardier, leaving common shareholders to hold what is not much more than the ground transport division plus (perhaps) the fire-fighting aircraft division?

in addition quebec city received millions of warrants on, presumably, BBD.B. Those warrants will cause dilution if exercised.

meanwhile the federal gummint is said to be insisting on a total reorganization of bombardier shares before it agrees to any grant. The objective is to eliminate the multiple voting class *A* shares held by the bombardier & beaudoin hereditary dynasties. Rumour has it that the families are stubbornly resisting.

in the light of all this confusion over the ongoing re-structuring of the company, me i think it's premature to be speculating in bombardier common.


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## Nordic

Value said:


> Just depends on what it's compared too... If at the same time bbd.b rallies to 4 dollars, 77% is not much... However if everyone jumps on the preferred and there is little movement for bbd.b, then it's lots...


Coincidentally, the $4 figure for the commons is roughly where the Preferred C's should reach back into the low $20's. And yep, if the commons languish at around $2 for the next couple of years, the Prefs will do better because of the yield. 
I've held the prefs for quite a while and am down half of what I would be if I had bought the commons; it's basically just a lower-risk way to invest in BBD.


----------



## hboy43

Value said:


> Then again, one should consider that the B and D preferred still have a 3-4 fold or so potential upside...


Why is this, are they convertible to BBD.B at the company's option? I might be soon at the point to sell come BBD.B for the loss and switch to a preferred for some dividends.

hboy43


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## m3s

I'm hearing more good things from aviation channels about the C series, or the lack of hearing it. I'll believe it when I see/hear it for myself.


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## Value

humble_pie said:


> value are you not concerned by covert dilution of BBD dot B stock?
> 
> the quebec gummint gave bombardier a billion dollars but in return they received what's billed as a "strategic partnership" in the C series. No details supplied. Does the strategic partnership mean quebec city receives first profits from C series sales if, as & when? wouldn't that mean holders of BBD common would be pushed aside? does this partnership not mean, in effect, that the entire C series business has been stripped out of bombardier, leaving common shareholders to hold what is not much more than the ground transport division plus (perhaps) the fire-fighting aircraft division?
> 
> in addition quebec city received millions of warrants on, presumably, BBD.B. Those warrants will cause dilution if exercised.
> 
> meanwhile the federal gummint is said to be insisting on a total reorganization of bombardier shares before it agrees to any grant. The objective is to eliminate the multiple voting class *A* shares held by the bombardier & beaudoin hereditary dynasties. Rumour has it that the families are stubbornly resisting.
> 
> in the light of all this confusion over the ongoing re-structuring of the company, me i think it's premature to be speculating in bombardier common.


Hello Humble,

The Quebec aim came with very favorable terms for the shareholders and BBD. It is nothing less than a fancy interest free loan.

You see, BBD has the option to buy back the provincial's stake in the Cseries for the same 1 billion it did put in to begin with. You can count on the fact that as soon as the Cseries is profitable, and BBD has enough liquidity, it will buy back the government's part of the project... The people take all the risk and BBD's shareholders all the reward!

There was a lot of political turmoil about this a few months back and the opposition leaders were pressuring the liberals to backtrack on their decision.

I suppose the warrants would dilute us, but hey, bbd does need some cash.


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## Value

hboy43 said:


> Why is this, are they convertible to BBD.B at the company's option? I might be soon at the point to sell come BBD.B for the loss and switch to a preferred for some dividends.
> 
> hboy43


It's because the dividend is less... and more volatile... The rates are renewable and always uncertain, while the C's are a big 11%+ annually at 14 dollars a share.


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## humble_pie

Value said:


> The Quebec aim came with very favorable terms for the shareholders and BBD. It is nothing less than a fancy interest free loan.
> 
> You see, BBD has the option to buy back the provincial's stake in the Cseries for the same 1 billion it did put in to begin with. You can count on the fact that as soon as the Cseries is profitable, and BBD has enough liquidity, it will buy back the government's part of the project... The people take all the risk and BBD's shareholders all the reward!
> 
> I suppose the warrants would dilute us, but hey, bbd does need some cash.



the great thing about forums like this is the diversity of points of view that get debated ...

the C series will turn profitable? bombardier will be able to magically pluck a billion dollars out of the sky with which to pay back the gummint of quebec? in the meantime bombardier received cash from issuing warrants to said gummint?

idk, normally a company issuing warrants doesn't receive warrant income per se at the time of issue. It only receives when the warrants are exercised in the future. Of course, BBD did receive the billion dollars, so as you say, the company did receive compensation for the warrants. Still, in my view these new warrants are representing extraordinary dilution of the common stock.

then there's the federal intent to restructure the common shares & eliminate the special voting share class. Normally this would be done by converting the families' multiple voting shares into many millions more regular BBD common shares. There's dilution for you.

value, if you are a hopeful shareholder, personally i think the best value indicator here is that cmffer m3s might be sniffing at BBD.B for signs that the thing may be able to take off at last ...


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## Nordic

Quite happy I loaded up on BBD.PR.C preferreds last week (on margin yet)! Bomber's just killin it lately.


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## Nerd Investor

Nordic said:


> Quite happy I loaded up on BBD.PR.C preferreds last week (on margin yet)! Bomber's just killin it lately.


I purchased some a week ago on margin as well. 
Attractive yield with little downside, and up nearly 15% from the purchase price.


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## hboy43

Nerd Investor said:


> I purchased some a week ago on margin as well.
> Attractive yield with little downside, and up nearly 15% from the purchase price.


Well, you are doing better than me then. Though down a bit on current ACB, I am slightly over break even for my ~10 year involvement with BBD.B given dividends and prior sales. Though things are moving quickly these days ... 

hboy43


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## Value

humble_pie said:


> the great thing about forums like this is the diversity of points of view that get debated ...
> 
> the C series will turn profitable? bombardier will be able to magically pluck a billion dollars out of the sky with which to pay back the gummint of quebec? in the meantime bombardier received cash from issuing warrants to said gummint?
> 
> idk, normally a company issuing warrants doesn't receive warrant income per se at the time of issue. It only receives when the warrants are exercised in the future. Of course, BBD did receive the billion dollars, so as you say, the company did receive compensation for the warrants. Still, in my view these new warrants are representing extraordinary dilution of the common stock.
> 
> then there's the federal intent to restructure the common shares & eliminate the special voting share class. Normally this would be done by converting the families' multiple voting shares into many millions more regular BBD common shares. There's dilution for you.
> 
> value, if you are a hopeful shareholder, personally i think the best value indicator here is that cmffer m3s might be sniffing at BBD.B for signs that the thing may be able to take off at last ...


I'm not sure we are talking about the same think in regards to the warrants Humble... I might be wrong, but I think that came from an earlier round of financing in 2015 where la Caisse de Depot bought a bunch of shares and options to buy in the future... It has nothing to do with the Quebec's stake in the CSeries or the Caisse's future purchase of 30% of the train unit... 

I don't know if the Cseries will ever be profitable. That depends on a whole lot of many factors, but it's not far fetched to assume that in a few years, say in 2020 -2022, the project will turn positive... Perhaps by then if BBD is in better shape than now and if they play their card right, they will be able to repurchase the Quebec part of the program.

To all others, I'm also loving the price movement these days! Wow... Anyone will be to the shareholders meeting Friday? I'll be there.


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## Earl

I'm too far to go but what is a shareholder meeting like? How many people typically attend?


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## hboy43

I don't think I have been to a shareholders meeting in 25 years. Gandalf Technologies might have been the last one. I look forward to a report on the meeting.

Hboy43


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## protomok

Sold off my position yesterday at $1.98 for a small profit. I still think BBD will do well over the long term but I've been trying to limit my individual stock positions and move more money into index funds lately.


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## Hippie

protomok said:


> Sold off my position yesterday at $1.98 for a small profit. I still think BBD will do well over the long term but I've been trying to limit my individual stock positions and move more money into index funds lately.


Just one day too early.


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## protomok

^ Haha perhaps! Maybe BBD shares will keep climbing this week who knows 

But the stock is currently up 112% over the past 3 months...I felt it was a reasonable exit point, and the Delta purchase seems to be priced in at these levels.


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## humble_pie

Value said:


> I'm not sure we are talking about the same think in regards to the warrants Humble... I might be wrong, but I think that came from an earlier round of financing in 2015 where la Caisse de Depot bought a bunch of shares and options to buy in the future... It has nothing to do with the Quebec's stake in the CSeries



value i believe i read that the gummints want control of the Cseries ... they'll advance the cash now but they intend to dissolve the bombardier/beaudoin family stranglehold on the multiple voting shares preciselly so that they, the gummints, can seat themselves instead via the warrants.

long-term, said the article i read, the gummints & the lackeys they appoint intend to end up with the Cseries business.

this makes sense to me. Otherwise i don't see how taxpayers would put up with a billion dollars from quebec plus another billion dollars from ottawa, both with no strings attached. This kind of government largesse was yesteryear, it's my belief that taxpayers today are allergic to it.

drat finding out for sure means reading the indenture itself, i might have to pursue this critter on SEDAR.






> Anyone will be to the shareholders meeting Friday? I'll be there


could you be our ears, eyes & messenger at the AGM? oyez, oyez


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## ML91

"Bombardier holders approve plan to increase maximum number of shares " - news from BNN.ca

What does this mean for BBD.B?


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## yyz

From what I listened to they want the ability to increase the number of shares available for stock options and to possibly issue more common stock.
What does it mean?Well it would be dilutive to existing shareholders as part of that is to raise additional equity for the company. I think the real question is how much money (if any) will they make on the Delta order? There are rumors they may have substantially undercut the "list price" to get the deal.They all do it but they are the least able to afford to do it.


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## noobs

sold to delta at 75% discount.... no wonder the stock fell like this today..


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## kcowan

Buying the business never works. They want to suck at the government teat forever.


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## humble_pie

pension heavyweights CPPIB & ontario teachers today joined shareholder rights group Médac in demanding that bombardier disclose voting rights by share class.

bombardier's class A multiple voting shares give the founding bombardier/beaudoin family more than 53% of votes. Minority shareholders hold the rest of the shares as class B or restricted voting shares.

reportedly, the federal goverments wants this share structure dissolved, ie it wants the bombardier/beaudoin family's hegemony to be ended, before it agrees to any billion dollar bailout.

but as we can see from this article following the BBD AGM today, the founding family is steadfastly refusing any loss of control via dilution of their majority share holding.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-relinquish-control-chairman/article29800741/

ottawa is becoming less & less subtle about its intent to pressure The Family into surrendering control.

at the annual meeting today, shareholder rights group Médac's proposal that bombardier disclose voting results by share class was defeated.

the proposal was defeated, but with backing from pension heavyweights such as CPPIB & ontario teachers, one can bet the proposal will return soon & the lobbying will grow more intense.

dissolution outcome for bombardier voting shares? the dissolution that i see coming would be conversion of The Family's class A shares into a new class of common shares. Presently the class A shares carry 10 votes each, i believe. The Family could not be expected to accept anything less than 10 new shares of future restructured BBD for every class A share it now holds.


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## humble_pie

the announced sale of 75 Cseries to Delta at $25 million vs a previous list price of $72 million was expected, at least by some analysts.

delta is a marquee client for any aircraft maker, so even at break-even prices, the bombardier coup to Delta is expected to serve as a high profile model that will attract additional sales.


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## yyz

They seem to have trouble delivering street cars ,what could possibly go wrong ?


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## hboy43

yyz said:


> They seem to have trouble delivering street cars ,what could possibly go wrong ?


Well turn this around, "what could possibly go right"? Then add in the fact that shared could be acquired under $1 very recently (and were at this end).

Yes, BBD has been poorly run for a quarter century. Yes the multiple voting shares desperately need to go. But by all accounts, the new plane is an engineering marvel.

Past performance isn't necessarily indicate of future performance is true for both good and bad.

I have lost way more money buying stable doing well companies (say Nortel, Canadian Fracmaster for 2 examples) than I have buying dog crap like BBD over the years. I have even have a few polished turds that turned into gemstones.

Anyhow, time will tell...


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## humble_pie

by extremely rough calculation, it looks as if the number of shares of New Bombardier - one vote per share - would have to more than double, if The Family share structure is to be ended. Existing shareholders would not gain more votes, they would gain nothing except heavy dilution.

there are no options or warrants for any such new shares. There is no published documentation. Treasury would likely have to issue them out of thin air, but all is rumour & vague speculation only.

as we saw from the AGM yesterday, a shareholder asked chairman Pierre Beaudoin if the federal government were urging restructuring of the multiple & subordinate voting shares, in return for the billion dollars the company is seeking. Beaudoin did not reply to this question. Instead, he spoke of the family's long & committed leadership of bombardier over the past half century.

as far as we know, the company was not poorly led by Pierre's father Laurent Beaudoin, who in a sense was a bit of an outsider in that he married into The Family, he is not directly descended from Armand Bombardier.


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## kcowan

humble_pie said:


> the announced sale of 75 Cseries to Delta at $25 million vs a previous list price of $72 million was expected, at least by some analysts.
> 
> delta is a marquee client for any aircraft maker, so even at break-even prices, the bombardier coup to Delta is expected to serve as a high profile model that will attract additional sales.


My understanding is that the booking of the $0.5 billion loss on the order implies that that is the amount of the loss leader order?

And the management claims they don't need the money. Great! We do not want to invest either. The billion from Quebec must be enough (until next time). This company will be a loss leader for years.


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## humble_pie

idk kcowan, your guess is no doubt way better tha mine .each:

whether sold initially for a small loss or at breakeven, the company has no choice at present but to push sales & deliveries of the Cseries, would you not say?

as a sidebar story, if bombardier can manage to deliver the aircraft to Delta, i wonder what russia will do with its cancelled-in-a-snit order for 50 Cseries planes. There is talk of this snit far upthread, i believe.

speaking of upthread history, if ottawa actual or de facto takes back control of canada's leading aerospace manufacturer, it's really only a matter of the wheel coming full circle. Bombardier was born in 1986 by buying canada's longtime military aircraft manufacturer Canadair, then going public with the new company.

Canadair's federal roots, in turn, date way back to World War II, when ottawa purchased Douglas aircraft located in st-Laurent, quebec, to secure for the then-fledgling RCAF the continued production of airborne constructions known as Canso Flying Boats.

from Canso Flying Boats to whisper-quiet C-Series that smell like new cars & deliver 100-150 passengers to medium-range destinations with ultra fuel efficiency, it's been a helluva flight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadair


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## Nordic

Bought more of the Preferred Cs; no reason for them to be trading in the $14s with 10.75% yield after the Delta order.


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## Nordic

Nordic said:


> Bought more of the Preferred Cs; no reason for them to be trading in the $14s with 10.75% yield after the Delta order.


$15.50 is more like it :biggrin:


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## humble_pie

Nordic said:


> Bought more of the Preferred Cs; no reason for them to be trading in the $14s with 10.75% yield after the Delta order.




those are the series 4 i believe? unlike the other bombardier preferreds, these have a conversion by the corporation feature - ie a forced conversion - with terms that may not be advantageous. The other BBD preferreds don't have this feature. They're convertible, but at the option of the holder, not the corporation.

this might explain why the yield on preferred "C" series 4 is markedly higher than the other BBD pfds.

http://ir.bombardier.com/en/preferred-series-4

_The Corporation may, subject to the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange and such other stock exchanges on which the Series 4 Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares are then listed, at any time convert all or any of the outstanding Series 4 Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares into fully paid and non‑assessable Class B Shares (Subordinate Voting) of the Corporation.

The number of Class B Shares (Subordinate Voting) into which each Series 4 Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares may be so converted will be determined by dividing the then applicable redemption price together with all accrued and unpaid dividends to, but excluding the date of conversion, by the greater of $2.00 Cdn and 95% of the weighted‑average trading price of such Class B Shares (Subordinate Voting) on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the period of 20 consecutive trading days, which ends on the fourth day prior to the date specified for conversion or, if that fourth day is not a trading day, on the trading day immediately preceding such fourth day._


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## Nordic

humble_pie said:


> those are the series 4 i believe? unlike the other bombardier preferreds, these have a conversion by the corporation feature - ie a forced conversion - with terms that may not be advantageous. The other BBD preferreds don't have this feature. They're convertible, but at the option of the holder, not the corporation.
> 
> this might explain why the yield on preferred "C" series 4 is markedly higher than the other BBD pfds.
> 
> http://ir.bombardier.com/en/preferred-series-4
> 
> _The Corporation may, subject to the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange and such other stock exchanges on which the Series 4 Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares are then listed, at any time convert all or any of the outstanding Series 4 Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares into fully paid and non‑assessable Class B Shares (Subordinate Voting) of the Corporation.
> 
> The number of Class B Shares (Subordinate Voting) into which each Series 4 Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares may be so converted will be determined by dividing the then applicable redemption price together with all accrued and unpaid dividends to, but excluding the date of conversion, by the greater of $2.00 Cdn and 95% of the weighted‑average trading price of such Class B Shares (Subordinate Voting) on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the period of 20 consecutive trading days, which ends on the fourth day prior to the date specified for conversion or, if that fourth day is not a trading day, on the trading day immediately preceding such fourth day._


The only way a conversion would be to the detriment of preferred-C holders would be if it was done shortly after a significant drop in the value of the common shares (the conversion would use the 20-day average price as the denominator, not the current market price) where the commons also dropped much further than the Prefs. That move by the company would be an extreme faux-pas; I consider it and the share-movement scenario (when commons plunge the prefs tend to plunge with them) highly unlikely. 

I bought more Prefs this morning.


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## humble_pie

class B common shares have dropped from the 20s down to a recent low in the one dollar range ... i don't recall that any of the preferreds ever plunged by even half that ...

actually i'd thought that the unusual conversion formula would not deter you - & in fact i think you are likely onto a good thing at least in the shortish term - but i was actually posting for other readers. I was hoping they might see that there are other points of view than simple chortling.

longer term i have a concern for possible massive dilution of the common share stock if The Family's multiple voting shares were to be wound up.

have you seen this? it's a plea for the bombardier/beaudoin clan hegemony to continue. The arguments put forth do have merit, although several of them are somewhat backward looking.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...t-saved-fort-mcmurray-family/article29903185/


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## yyz

BBD.PR.B 52 Week High $9.20 Low $3.77

BBD.PR.C 52 Week High $ 18.98 Low $ 6.75

BBD.PR.D 52 Week High $ 9.41 Low $ 4.00


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## Nordic

humble_pie said:


> class B common shares have dropped from the 20s down to a recent low in the one dollar range ... i don't recall that any of the preferreds ever plunged by even half that ...
> 
> actually i'd thought that the unusual conversion formula would not deter you - & in fact i think you are likely onto a good thing at least in the shortish term - but i was actually posting for other readers. I was hoping they might see that there are other points of view than simple chortling.
> 
> longer term i have a concern for possible massive dilution of the common share stock if The Family's multiple voting shares were to be wound up.
> 
> have you seen this? it's a plea for the bombardier/beaudoin clan hegemony to continue. The arguments put forth do have merit, although several of them are somewhat backward looking.
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...t-saved-fort-mcmurray-family/article29903185/


Well yeah the Pref Cs only have .5 correlation to the commons over the long run, though I've noticed with short-term spikes down or up the pref Cs can often move totally in tandem.

I think you linked the wrong url there...


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## humble_pie

^^

you're right! totally wrong link! so sorry about that

if you might still be interested, this should work

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...bardier-under-family-control/article29903946/


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## Nordic

humble_pie said:


> ^^
> 
> you're right! totally wrong link! so sorry about that
> 
> if you might still be interested, this should work
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...bardier-under-family-control/article29903946/


Very interested; thanks. I actually fully support the family holding on to control. I think the ex-CEO/current Chairman Pierre Beaudoin obviously did a terrible job in his last few years as CEO, but that's in the past now, and it's time to get on board for the turnaround. Taking away the family's control would leave the company open to takeover & breakup which could screw this whole thing up.

I think Bomber is going to get a LOT of C-Series orders over the next few years, and once revenue starts flowing in people are going to forget all about these years in the dumps. It's going to be similar to Air Canada's 10-year story, IMO.


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## humble_pie

Nordic said:


> Very interested; thanks. I actually fully support the family holding on to control. I think the ex-CEO/current Chairman Pierre Beaudoin obviously did a terrible job in his last few years as CEO, but that's in the past now, and it's time to get on board for the turnaround. Taking away the family's control would leave the company open to takeover & breakup which could screw this whole thing up.
> 
> I think Bomber is going to get a LOT of C-Series orders over the next few years, and once revenue starts flowing in people are going to forget all about these years in the dumps. It's going to be similar to Air Canada's 10-year story, IMO.



the case for the clan: you put it well.

the alternative would be the gummint sitting in the chair & trying to direct a multinational aerospace company. This does sound pretty farfetched.

another thing that concerns me is bombardier's lack of worldwide support, training & repair infrastructure. It was said recently that the company had tried to form global infrastructure partnerships with Boeing & - i believe - possibly Airbus.

do you feel that lack of a global service network might handicap Cseries sales? this lack does not seem to have hindered Delta though.


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## Nordic

humble_pie said:


> the case for the clan: you put it well.
> 
> the alternative would be the gummint sitting in the chair & trying to direct a multinational aerospace company. This does sound pretty farfetched.
> 
> another thing that concerns me is bombardier's lack of worldwide support, training & repair infrastructure. It was said recently that the company had tried to form global infrastructure partnerships with Boeing & - i believe - possibly Airbus.
> 
> do you feel that lack of a global service network might handicap Cseries sales? this lack does not seem to have hindered Delta though.


Can't say this aspect of their operations has been on my radar to be honest. I think you'll have to tell me if it appears to be a significant headwind! :cower:


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## Value

This is the moment of truth for BBD... They finally got validation from a main north american carrier and the CSeries is set to enter service in the near future...

For myself, as I believe is the case for many people, the next 12 months is make it or break it for Bombardier... Are the orders going to start flowing in after this validation from Delta and the international exposure from Swiss Air when they start using the product? 

Time will tell, but these next 12 months will be crucial for me when it comes to evaluating if I want to keep my money at the company or not.


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## m3s

humble_pie said:


> another thing that concerns me is bombardier's lack of worldwide support, training & repair infrastructure. It was said recently that the company had tried to form global infrastructure partnerships with Boeing & - i believe - possibly Airbus.
> 
> do you feel that lack of a global service network might handicap Cseries sales? this lack does not seem to have hindered Delta though.


I remember seeing Bombardiers with tail markings from around the world in North Bay. Just read they ended their lease on those North Bay facilities last month. Not enough Superscooper sales. Canada could have used some more Superscoopers


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## humble_pie

Value said:


> This is the moment of truth for BBD... They finally got validation from a main north american carrier and the CSeries is set to enter service in the near future...
> 
> For myself, as I believe is the case for many people, the next 12 months is make it or break it for Bombardier... Are the orders going to start flowing in after this validation from Delta and the international exposure from Swiss Air when they start using the product?
> 
> Time will tell, but these next 12 months will be crucial for me when it comes to evaluating if I want to keep my money at the company or not.



idk, i'm thinking your timeline might be a little too short?

the recently-purchased delta orders won't be delivered for several years. You probably have a better knowledge of these details than i do, but aren't the first-off-the-assembly-line Cseries destined for swissair?

me i believe 12 months will not be enough to turn this behemoth around. Please observe m3's post, how bombardier recently closed its North Bay service facility for its line of firefighter aircraft. 

afaik it was the original long line of premier bombardier firefighting aircraft that were the bread-&-butter of the company's aerospace business. The cash cow, if you please. But i've heard that water bomber & firefighter sales have diminished in recent years. No reason given. 

it does seem strange, in this moment of the fort mcMurray & the Peace district wildfires, to be thinking that well-known successful firefighting aircraft are not selling well. Value you're a good researcher, do you suppose we could task you with looking deeper into the BBD firefighter division's circumstances? are sales truly slowing? profits deteriorating? why?


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## hboy43

There is a saying in boating circles that fiberglass boats don't die of natural causes, they are murdered. All kinds of boating manufacturers have gone bust or reorganized, including Hunter a few years ago, and Island Packet more recently. An often cited reason is that they are completing with their own boats made 20, 30, 40 years ago. Unlike wood or steel, there really is no longer term decay mode that takes them out of service and there is every reason to think that in about another 40 years, there will be a century old fiberglass boat doing just fine.

As am example of boat economics, l paid $3500 for my Tanzer 22 with trailer. About the only new boat that was also around 20, or 30 years ago and roughly comparable is the Rhodes 22, which new with trailer would cost in Canadian funds high 5 figures.

I suspect airplanes in general, and water bombers in particular have the same issue. They don't really wear our, and only better features and things like fuel economy drive them to the scrap heap. Especially water bombers, as they are likely sitting around doing nothing 9 months of the year.

Hboy43


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## humble_pie

hboy43 said:


> I suspect airplanes in general, and water bombers in particular have the same issue. They don't really wear our, and only better features and things like fuel economy drive them to the scrap heap. Especially water bombers, as they are likely sitting around doing nothing 9 months of the year.



fuel economy ... this could be a key insight here.

bombardier was selling firefighters all over the world, previously they were known as the best water bombers in the business. But as the price of fuel rose into the stratosphere, countries would have sought to replace with more fuel-efficient planes, of course. It's possible bombardier might have failed to re-design its line of firefighters into fuel-efficient models ...


----------



## m3s

humble_pie said:


> afaik it was the original long line of premier bombardier firefighting aircraft that were the bread-&-butter of the company's aerospace business. The cash cow, if you please. But i've heard that water bomber & firefighter sales have diminished in recent years. No reason given.
> 
> it does seem strange, in this moment of the fort mcMurray & the Peace district wildfires, to be thinking that well-known successful firefighting aircraft are not selling well. Value you're a good researcher, do you suppose we could task you with looking deeper into the BBD firefighter division's circumstances? are sales truly slowing? profits deteriorating? why?


Apparently the US has a Global Supertanker coming online. They said it wasn't ready to support Fort McMurray as it was being upgraded to a new platform. From their glossy brochure:



> Globally fire seasons are 20% longer than they were just 3 decades ago. Weather patterns have increased the fire prone areas as population centers continue to encroach on the wildland/urban interface. Compounding the situation, in many cases, is the limited or non-existent local response capability jeopardizing even more lives, property and natural resources. The result is that fire seasons begin earlier, last longer, are more destructive and significantly costlier everywhere. The SuperTanker’s capacity, speed and safety are the right answer at the right time.












While this beast could take off from the US and be over Fort McMurray within hours.. I'm thinking it would also take hours to land at the nearest 8000' runway, reload, takeoff again while the Super Scooper can reload quickly from a nearby water source and react quickly to the ever changing fire situation. For Canada and many countries I think it still makes sense to use Bombardier's Super Scooper but the production is apparently going offline.


----------



## humble_pie

i'm surprised to hear that bombardier would have allowed their water bombers - their former bread-&-butter, their cash cow - to become obsolete & even go out of business.

mode, are you saying that BBD has permanently shut down production of these aircraft? i wasn't aware.

it's a natural that canada could & should manufacture some of the world's best firefighting water tankers. So could russia, so even could finland, possibly norway & sweden. These are the countries with the big northern forests & the developed forest products industries.

i'm wondering if perhaps the BBD corporate decisions of the past few years were to commit all financial & talent resources to the Cseries, while letting the water tanker division deteriorate into oblivion. What a mistake. Such a mistake would have to be laid at the feet of pierre beaudoin, i suppose.

when m3 points out that a gigantic US water bomber competitor that requires an 8000 foot runway is a poor idea for northern canada, i'm sure he's right. Our northern forest regions are vast, dotted with gazillions of lakes & rivers so water uptake is always easy. Meanwhile it's likely that most of the small towns & tiny settlements in canada's north have only short landing strips.

a smaller more nimble water bomber seems made to order for canada & other northern forested regions. The manufacture & sale of the same should be a pillar of the canadian aerospace industry. Once upon a time, bombardier's water tankers had been such a pillar. I'm distressed to learn that the opportunity has been lost.



.


----------



## humble_pie

brazil's Embraer threatens - for the nth time - to sue bombardier over improper government subsidies to the canadian aerospace manufacturer which, says Embraer, violate WTO regulations.

this has been going on for years. Each country runs to the WTO with its complaints. Bombardier delivers as good as it receives, repeatedly accusing brazil of subsidizing embraer in exactly the same manner.

afaik every country that manufactures & exports aircraft into the global market subsidizes its native industry exactly the same way. 

buried far down in the article is the real news, some of which has leaked out already. Federal aid to bombardier will be contingent upon the company eliminating its multiple voting share structure & issuing $1 billion in new stock.

one billion dollars in new stock, wow. That's dilution on a grand scale.

http://business.financialpost.com/n...of-improper-government-subsidies-embraer-exec



.


----------



## tombiosis

Maybe they should stop trying to sue each other and focus on making money for their share holders!
Learning an expensive lesson on this stock. Kept buying as it fell, so I have an ACB of 3.50ish... "too stubborn to bail" now. which ironically rhymes with "too big to fail" sigh...


----------



## JosephK

So for a stock that used to be so volatile, it now seems to be frozen in a very narrow range around $2, does anyone have any idea if there's any funny business going on beyond the scenes?


----------



## humble_pie

there's already a lot of explanation & insight in the thread ...


----------



## Nordic

Loaded up on some more of the Preferred-C's; undervalued in the $15.25/10% yield range, especially after the recent half-billion dollar order for CRJ900s which the market totally ignored.
Next C-Series order will make bomber pop again, and I expect this will be within the next 2 months.


----------



## Nordic

Increased my BBD-C preferreds position again today @ $15.78. 
Two weeks to go before what I expect to be a share-price pop from Farnborough airshow order announcements.

Ride the lightning baby!


----------



## Nordic

16.90; wowza. Is anyone else playing BBD, or is this forum dead after the password resets?


----------



## OhGreatGuru

IMHO Bombardier is a gamble. Just look at the number of aircraft manufacturers who went out of business (or got bought out) in the 20th century. They've invested a lot in their C series in an attempt to go head-to-head with Boeing and AirBus on medium-size jets. A risky marketing strategy at the best of times, and the aircraft has had numerous production delays. 
Their rail division ought to be bringing some stability to their finances, but I hear via the grapevine they are being plagued with delivery delays there too.

A cynic might think Bombardier's executives are hoping they will be enough of an annoyance to be bought out by Boeing at a tidy personal profit.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

I wouldn't own them either. May be less of a gamble these days though now that the Liberals are filling the trough?


----------



## humble_pie

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> May be less of a gamble these days though now that the Liberals are filling the trough?



i'm sure that's true. It - federal support - might be enough to make good the preferred shares.

me i was crestfallen to learn from m3s - in the fort mcMurray fire thread - that the storied BBD firefighting tanker series is now moribund. Once upon a time the water bombers were bombardier's cash cow, but evidently that day is long gone.

.


----------



## Ag Driver

I work in aviation and I wouldn't touch it with a 10ft barge pole. No aircraft manufacturing companies, no airlines, no thanks.


----------



## humble_pie

Ag Driver said:


> I work in aviation and I wouldn't touch it with a 10ft barge pole. No aircraft manufacturing companies, no airlines, no thanks.



keep in mind that US aerospace defence stocks have boomed. Raytheon, lockheed martin, boeing etc. Did you miss out on a good thing?


----------



## Ag Driver

humble_pie said:


> keep in mind that US aerospace defence stocks have boomed. Raytheon, lockheed martin, boeing etc. Did you miss out on a good thing?


Nope. 

Not only do I have my negative opinion on the aviation industry, but it would also be a case of putting too many eggs in one basket. In the event of a downturn, not only would my career be at risk, but my portfolio as well.


----------



## humble_pie

what a pity
about the eggs, i mean

there's another pilot on here who said a year ago he'd made a fortune in raytheon ...


----------



## Nordic

I've noticed everyone replying is looking at Bombardier's past, and not to their future. You have to foresee developments and move in quick before the herd catches on; and the herd is just now starting to catch on to Bombardier's impending success with the C-Series jets. BBD Preferred-C shares are up 31% since I started loading up (using margin) @ $13/share in late April; now at $17.17. They also still pay a >9% yield.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Sheesh
_FARNBOROUGH, United Kingdom — Quebec's premier says Bombardier's CSeries program doesn't require immediate federal financial support but he still expects Ottawa to come through with *US*$1 billion in additional funding..."There is enough liquidity in the company to advance the program to fill all orders that are before us," ... the program is on track with a full pipeline of 370 firm orders... "The additional funding ($1 billion) will be needed to ensure more flexibility in the future, identify new markets, develop new models,"... 
the federal economic development minister, is scheduled to make an announcement about the Quebec aerospace sector at the air show on Tuesday, although details weren't immediately available... 
Quebec will receive a 49.5 per cent stake in the commercial jet program once the second US$500-million instalment is made _ 
(and for its US$1 billion the Fed's would receive?)
_ Couillard rejected criticism from Brazilian rival Embraer, which is threatening to challenge Quebec's support at the World Trade Organization... "There is not a dollar of subsidy in the support we have given to Bombardier, it is only a trade agreement"... The CSeries program is 2 ½ years behind schedule and at least $2 billion above cost estimates..._ 

http://www.therecord.com/news-story/6762796-cseries-doesn-t-need-immediate-federal-funding-says-quebec-premier/


----------



## Value

Nordic said:


> I've noticed everyone replying is looking at Bombardier's past, and not to their future. You have to foresee developments and move in quick before the herd catches on; and the herd is just now starting to catch on to Bombardier's impending success with the C-Series jets. BBD Preferred-C shares are up 31% since I started loading up (using margin) @ $13/share in late April; now at $17.17. They also still pay a >9% yield.


There was a lot of nice possible catalysts when you started to load and there still is a lot of catalyst these days as well!
Congrats on your returns!


----------



## humble_pie

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> _Quebec will receive a 49.5 per cent stake in the commercial jet program once the second US$500-million instalment is made _
> 
> (and for its US$1 billion the Fed's would receive?)



i don't know exactly what ottawa would receive but whatever info can be found (may not be reliable) could be worth checking out. To the best of my knowledge ottawa was not seeking the same kind of ownership deal quebec has received.

did you notice that CEO alain bellemarre said no new C-series orders would be announced at farnbrough? ie there aren't any.

i'm not well enough informed, except to see that supporting aerospace is a fundamental doctrine of the federal religion. Especially dogmatic when liberals are in power. This has been true since WW II.

now the gummints have taken ownership stakes in BBD. This at a time when gummints are privatizing everything. In a best case scenario, one might hope that sales of the C-series will eventually stabilize at breakeven.

in a breakeven scenario there might not be anything left over for shareholders, but there would be huge & distinct political benefits to canada. Bombardier has always been a loyal federal citizen, pulling with it a train of suppliers & related industries, so if the company could continue indefinitely on breakeven, a stable deliverance of quebec to canada would be enhanced.

(somewhat off-topic) (i'm one who is in favour of gummint support for the entire aerospace sector. Now more than ever, aviation, air force & navy are critical to our northern regions.)

(global warming means increased encroachments through the northwest passage; russia means increased flyovers into our air space; north korea means missiles aimed at the US passing over canada)

(if we can host aerospace manufacturers, radar communications & shipbuilding yards at breakeven cost, imho we should jump at the chance to do so)

.


----------



## Nordic

humble_pie said:


> In a best case scenario, one might hope that sales of the C-series will eventually stabilize at breakeven.


That's hardly a best-case scenario...
I think the C-Series program will hit breakeven in 10-12 years, and then be a cash-cow for 15-20 years afterwards (similar to what the CRJ program has been over the past decade).


----------



## Nordic

Nordic said:


> Loaded up on some more of the Preferred-C's; undervalued in the $15.25/10% yield range, especially after the recent half-billion dollar order for CRJ900s which the market totally ignored.
> Next C-Series order will make bomber pop again, and I expect this will be within the next 2 months.


Almost 2 months since this post; BBD Preferred C shares now trading @ $17.95.


----------



## james4beach

JosephK said:


> So for a stock that used to be so volatile, it now seems to be frozen in a very narrow range around $2, does anyone have any idea if there's any funny business going on beyond the scenes?


Nah, it's perfectly normal for a stock to hover within 5% of a constant price for three months


----------



## james4beach

I was being sarcastic in that last post, but BBD.B has broken that flatness. It declined to $1.60 on increasing volume, and is now exactly at its 200 day moving average.

What I'm looking for now is whether it keeps falling below its 200 day average. If it continues to decline on heavy volume, I would say that's very bearish. Because it's at that moving average right now, many fund managers will be looking at this and deciding -- probably this week -- whether they will keep it or dump it.


----------



## Nordic

james4beach said:


> I was being sarcastic in that last post, but BBD.B has broken that flatness. It declined to $1.60 on increasing volume, and is now exactly at its 200 day moving average.
> 
> What I'm looking for now is whether it keeps falling below its 200 day average. If it continues to decline on heavy volume, I would say that's very bearish. Because it's at that moving average right now, many fund managers will be looking at this and deciding -- probably this week -- whether they will keep it or dump it.


Or be like me and buy a ton of call options when it was 1.66; closed Friday at 1.80.


----------



## humble_pie

Nordic said:


> Or be like me and buy a ton of call options when it was 1.66; closed Friday at 1.80.



that was the stock closed at 1.80, not the options.

those yawning spreads in the B/As will kill ya. Wondering what calls you bought, that a bidder is agreeing to give you the 14 pennies you are evoking? had to be DITM 100 delta calls ...

bad news for the aerospace division. On the other hand, good news for ground transport. 

.


----------



## Nordic

humble_pie said:


> that was the stock closed at 1.80, not the options.
> 
> those yawning spreads in the B/As will kill ya. Wondering what calls you bought, that a bidder is agreeing to give you the 14 pennies you are evoking? had to be DITM 100 delta calls ...
> 
> bad news for the aerospace division. On the other hand, good news for ground transport.
> 
> .


I've got the $2 strikes with Jan 2018 expiry. Yeah the bid/ask spread is a pain on the OTM calls; you need a lot of movement just to get the bid to your break-even point. Once you get past that point you're looking at a great multiple on profits though. 
The commons had overshot to the downside because of overzealous amateur speculators jumping on the short bandwagon. The delay of some CSeries deliveries from 2nd-half 2016 to 1st-half 2017 should have knocked the commons down to around 1.85, not 1.57.


----------



## james4beach

I still think that the 200 day moving average is very important. You can see how BBD.B dropped right down to it, flirted with it for a bit, but did not fall below that level. Instead it _bounced_ right off the 200 day and went higher.

Beware if BBD.B ever does fall below that 200 day moving average. It may be showing strength now, but on the multi-year time scale this is a VERY weak stock. There are a lot of itchy trigger fingers ready to dump more shares, and that's a T/A level they're watching.


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## james4beach

Bombardier is laying off 7,500 people and is hiring cheaper foreigners. They will hire 3,700 people outside of Canada  Très dommage.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3018471/b...adas-failure-to-stay-competitive-says-expert/


----------



## mark0f0

Probably more of a 'negotiation' tactic with Ottawa at this point. VIA needs 300 new passenger cars for its dilapidated fleet.


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## james4beach

If Ottawa bails them out, I hope they cap all of the executives pay. The last thing we want is to enrich a bunch of top managers while they run a company into the ground _and_ take taxpayer money.


----------



## humble_pie

my takeaway from the news is that ottawa will definitely bail bombardier. Right now the discussion is focused on which parts of BBD are going to receive the money.

the spin story goes that federal largesse will mostly go to R & D. Meanwhile, out of the 7,500 workers to be laid off over the next 2 years, 2000 are in canada & of these, 1500 are in quebec.

the quebec trimmings will mostly be from aerospace & administration.

the remaining 5,500 to be laid off are mostly from the ground transport division & most of the jobs to be phased out are in europe.

as the layoffs proceed, bombardier plans to hire 3,500 new lower-paid workers in low-cost countries.

one can see the grand design here. Highly paid engineers & computer scientists will be hired for the head office in canada. Actual production will be outsourced to countries with cheaper labour forces plus good technical training records (el salvador is an example of such a country) (hard-working labour force) (widespread use of english) (el salvador already has a burgeoning aerospace industry.)

here & there i've seen persons questioning the above model. Should canada count on becoming a brains-only head office economy? what about employment for ordinary canadians? what's to become of the middle class, the working class, the white & blue collars? nothing but low-paid service industry jobs? what kind of employment will canada be able to offer young people in 10 or 20 years?

.


----------



## Nordic

humble_pie said:


> my takeaway from the news is that ottawa will definitely bail bombardier. Right now the discussion is focused on which parts of BBD are going to receive the money.
> 
> the spin story goes that federal largesse will mostly go to R & D. Meanwhile, out of the 7,500 workers to be laid off over the next 2 years, 2000 are in canada & of these, 1500 are in quebec.
> 
> the quebec trimmings will mostly be from aerospace & administration.
> 
> the remaining 5,500 to be laid off are mostly from the ground transport division & most of the jobs to be phased out are in europe.
> 
> as the layoffs proceed, bombardier plans to hire 3,500 new lower-paid workers in low-cost countries.
> 
> one can see the grand design here. Highly paid engineers & computer scientists will be hired for the head office in canada. Actual production will be outsourced to countries with cheaper labour forces plus good technical training records (el salvador is an example of such a country) (hard-working labour force) (widespread use of english) (el salvador already has a burgeoning aerospace industry.)
> 
> here & there i've seen persons questioning the above model. Should canada count on becoming a brains-only head office economy? what about employment for ordinary canadians? what's to become of the middle class, the working class, the white & blue collars? nothing but low-paid service industry jobs? what kind of employment will canada be able to offer young people in 10 or 20 years?
> 
> .


Excellent analysis Humble.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

*Bombardier's mysterious Russian middleman: A single mention in the Panama Papers - and a Putin ally's exclusion from Canada's sanctions list - trigger a round-the-world chase for answers* 
Mark MacKinnon. The Globe and Mail, 17 Dec 2016.

I've always been ambivalent about this company, mostly because their survival over the years has depended on regular visits to the trough. Now it appears they are just another unethical/corrupt Montreal company. I will be immensely pi$$ed off if we feed more federal taxpayer dollars to this company. 
Invest in them? Not a chance.

An interesting read. Multiserv Overseas and Vladimir Yakunin; the Canadian government's continued refusal to place him on the post-Crimea sanctions list... The article is behind the Globe's firewall: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bombardier-and-the-putinconnection/article33354878/ I read the Globe online through the library (proquest). 

But maybe accessible here?: http://www.pressreader.com/canada/the-globe-and-mail-ottawaquebec-edition/20161217/281775628802987


----------



## End

*Some Research*

Can't post links or I would reference everything here.

Job Cuts Will Increase Stock Price:
They are planning to cut 10% of its global workforce, approximately 7,500 positions by 2018. This will save the company $300 USD million a year. Also shows they’re willing to do anything to get back on track.

Loans
Bombardier is currently in negotiation with Trudeau for a billion-dollar loan. If Trudeau accepts the deal, Bombardier will have enough cash to continue their C Series development. If Trudeau doesn’t accept the deal, they will most likely get funding from the province of Quebec. Of course this also means they’ll be increasing their debt but could end up positive for their stock price depending on how they manage their C Series. 

C Series
This is a huge topic and I honestly think it could make or break the company. One problem with the C Series is that it only has the capacity for 110-130 seats, smaller than the Airbus and Boeing, although this could be good for large airlines which need a large network of 110-130 seat planes. Another problem is that the two big deals done with Air Canada (45 orders + 30 more option) and Delta (75 orders) were done at “heavily discounted” prices. They need to get another big order in 2017 at normal prices. 

Trump
Because trump is very pro-business and plans on cutting corporate taxes, there may be a bigger demand for business jets. 

Some Reasons for Failure
If they don’t receive government funding they won’t be able to expand on their C Series.
Their C Series requires many manufacturers and distributers, one of which already caused a delay for the number of C Series to be produced in 2017.
They are in a lot of debt, 10 billion to be exact, but they’ve entered the bond market in November and were able to raise $1.4 billion USD. 

Analysts Reviews
Target Price: $2.39, current $2.11 

My Opinion:
I think this is a great opportunity for a short term investment and could be really risky long-term or really good. I’m thinking of buying 2000 shares at less than $2.15 and selling at around $2.40.

I’m new to stocks so I would really appreciate any constructive criticism or any thoughts you guys have on Bombardier for a short term investment.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

From my perspective, the chance to make $500 isn't worth the effort. And why place my hard earned, after tax $4300 with a company I despise. I would much sooner place it with a solid company that can survive without government largesse, and be more patient earning my $500. You are hoping to make the quick (but small) bucks. Good luck.
OMO.

P.S. Have you ever looked at the S&P credit rating for BBD's preferred shares? It is P-5. That is one notch above 'D' -Default.


----------



## Oldroe

I also got sucked into this turd 20 years ago.

And it's been between $2.50 and 5.50 for 20 years. It's problem is billions invested before it makes 1 sale.


----------



## hboy54

Oldroe said:


> I also got sucked into this turd 20 years ago.
> 
> And it's been between $2.50 and 5.50 for 20 years. It's problem is billions invested before it makes 1 sale.


I have also been in this turd for a very long time. Thing is other turds I have owned have polished up nicely. Maybe this one will too.

The thing is lots has been written off and the SP fell under $1 to reflect that reality. I am not that concerned that the few thousand shares I bought decades go will forever be in a loss position. I am more interested in the fate of the tens of thousands of shares acquired more recently around $1.

Has bomber been a bad investment historically? Sure. Do we desperately need to break the multiple voting shares bombardier/bedioun hegemony? Absolutely.

Is BBD.B an interesting speculation at $2? I think so. Sure they might go bankrupt yet. But what if Bellmare actually pulls of $1 before tax in his 5 year plan? That would imply a double digit SP. The expected value here I think is well over $2. I am not counting on ever seeing $10, but $3 or $5 medium term is not an outrageous possibility.

I don't like government handouts on principle either. But what is the common denominator in all handouts? Governments and by extension your fellow voters. The correct parties of scorn I think. I have no control over the stupidity of the electorate. All I can do is take advantage of chances as they appear, whether or not the government is involved.


----------



## End

*BBD*



OnlyMyOpinion said:


> From my perspective, the chance to make $500 isn't worth the effort. And why place my hard earned, after tax $4300 with a company I despise. I would much sooner place it with a solid company that can survive without government largesse, and be more patient earning my $500. You are hoping to make the quick (but small) bucks. Good luck.
> OMO.
> 
> P.S. Have you ever looked at the S&P credit rating for BBD's preferred shares? It is P-5. That is one notch above 'D' -Default.


It's not much effort to buy the stock haha, it takes one click. And honestly, I'm thinking of investing short term. I think a 10% increase from its current price is pretty reasonable. 

Its S&P rating is low but I highly doubt they'd go bankrupt in 2017. These new deals with Air Canada and Delta will keep the afloat for a little while longer. 

I think it's a good idea to invest short term for a quick flip, but investing long term might be a little too risky. 

Also, I have a better company in mind that I've read about previously this year. It really caught my interest and I think it has a great future. I'm going to do more research and post a thread about it later.


----------



## jargey3000

_Also, I have a better company in mind that I've read about previously this year. It really caught my interest and I think it has a great future. I'm going to do more research and post a thread about it later._
...any clues wich company this might be end?


----------



## james4beach

hboy54 said:


> Is BBD.B an interesting speculation at $2? I think so. Sure they might go bankrupt yet.


I've never understood the desire to speculate in beaten up companies with the "writing on the wall".

Aren't there are enough _good_ companies in the TSX Composite to speculate on instead? Ones that actually have a trend of rising share prices, rising profits, corporate growth, etc -- as opposed to imminent bankruptcy and delisting.

To me, it feels like a poor risk/reward tradeoff to gamble on these widow-makers like BBD.B, BB, VRX on the faint hope that they may produce big gains.


----------



## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> I've never understood the desire to speculate in beaten up companies with the "writing on the wall".
> Aren't there are enough _good_ companies in the TSX Composite to speculate on instead? ...


Where one has a bit of spare cash that won't do much elsewhere, buying low then selling on the bounce can do well (ex. sell for 2.5x or so).

Where one is able to deal with all the remainders without a commission ... it's probably not worth it.


Cheers


----------



## james4beach

Personally, I have known too many people who have speculated in this fashion (catching a falling knife) and lost. Including a guy who went heavily into VRX last summer because it was "surely" due for a bounce.


----------



## hboy54

james4beach said:


> I've never understood the desire to speculate in beaten up companies with the "writing on the wall".
> 
> Aren't there are enough _good_ companies in the TSX Composite to speculate on instead? Ones that actually have a trend of rising share prices, rising profits, corporate growth, etc -- as opposed to imminent bankruptcy and delisting.
> 
> To me, it feels like a poor risk/reward tradeoff to gamble on these widow-makers like BBD.B, BB, VRX on the faint hope that they may produce big gains.


What is "writing on the wall"? I see 10% probability of failure here over 5 years. "Imminent bankruptcy and delisting" implies much higher, perhaps 90%. We do not percieve risk in even remotely similar fashion.

"Good companies in the TSX to speculate on instead"?? If it is a good company, then I would not think it a speculation. This is again a comment on the vast gulf between how you and I see risk.

In a later post here, you comment on "falling knives" and how everyone you know fails here. I don't fail here because I keep at it long after most quit. I spent from late 2014 to 2016 accumulating BBD.B ECA LRE TECK.B BTE and to a lesser degree OSB and MX. In the 2015 return thread I reported that I lost about 26% and likely had the worst return that callendar year. I further went on to comment that this callendar reporting stuff really is nonsense given the nature of investing being long term and all, and indicated I would no longer participate in such foolishness. So let's just leave it at had a good year because I spent so long catching falling knives.

For example, I started buying BTE at $16 or $18, down to $2.37, and back in $5 range more recently, 9 times IIRC, and have not yet sold a single share. I hold at ACB $5.67. Is this really riskier than other people who bought at $40 three years ago? Three years ago, you or someone like you would have argued it was a safe dividend paying stock.

No, I like being down in the feces filled investing trenches. Buying garbage at low prices has a better expected value than paying serious money for the so called safe stuff. I have done better on Bomber the risky than I did on Nortel the safe.

I don't do this with just any stock. You are invited to look up the old thread, that you started IIRC, something about what is your high level investing strategy, where I discuss factors that would lead me to invest here, but likely (and actually) avoid BB and VRX.

Hboy54


----------



## Oldroe

Speculation stocks are between 5-10% of your portfolio. It's never all in situation.

I've made very good money on stuff like this. Nortel was big twice.

This turd is not for me.


----------



## james4beach

hboy54 said:


> I don't do this with just any stock. You are invited to look up the old thread, that you started IIRC, something about what is your high level investing strategy, where I discuss factors that would lead me to invest here, but likely (and actually) avoid BB and VRX.


Hboy54, it sounds like you have a methodology that works. I'm glad it works for you -- perhaps you have a particular expertise in this.

I have several past classmates and work colleagues who tried their hands at investing in beaten up stocks, and it didn't work out for any of them over the long term (that I'm aware of)


----------



## Oldroe

You should hang around better investors.


----------



## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> ... I have several past classmates and work colleagues who tried their hands at investing in beaten up stocks, and it didn't work out for any of them over the long term (that I'm aware of)


So using this theory, where most of one's co-workers can't change their oil without messing it up or renegotiate a mortgage successfully - does one know anything about what one can do?


It's all good and well to watch out for pitfalls from other's experience but at some point, one has to decide what oneself has the knowledge, time and ability to do.


Cheers


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## james4beach

Those are good points too. Still, I've seen a pattern over the years of running into stock pickers (I've witnessed two bear markets): during bull market years, everyone does great and everyone is a pro stock picker. It's all so easy during a bull market. When the bear market hits, everyone gets wiped out and suddenly the returns are nothing to brag about any more.


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## Oldroe

I'm at 6 and love those correction. Sure separates the diaper wears from investors.


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## james4beach

Did you steadily speculate in beaten up stocks for 10+ years, or did you just start in recent years?

What was your maximum drawdown / worst loss during 2007-2009 ?


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## Oldroe

Td was $25 about what I paid for it 10 years previous.

Look everything got crushed, I bought, Riocan at $10 I bought. 

My second crash was the learning curve. Liquidation World, and a couple fuel cell company's and the tech crash turned 50k real $ into 6K .


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## james4beach

Oldroe, thanks for the reply. Sounds like some real adventures on those stocks. Ballard Fuel once nearly wiped me out 

Cheers to you and best wishes for more good trading ahead, Happy New Year!


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## humble_pie

me i think hboy's specu is nervy but grounded. Did hboy get the nomination for double-the-guts-of-younger-men-half-his-age award? if not he should have won this.

i have no bombardier position but this does not look like a company that will go gently into that bankruptcy good night. The gummints - ottawa & quebec - are going to keep her afloat. 

the ground division is successful. How about this headline couple days ago - bombardier signs 1.8 billion euro (US $1.9 billion) deal with austrian federal railways for up to 300 all-electric Talent 3 passenger trains, with the first 21 trains scheduled for delivery in 2019.

bombardier says 1,400 Talent trains are already in service in europe & canada.

it's the airborne division of BBD that can't seem able to take off. I was sorry to hear about the wasting away of bombardier's once-fabled firefighting tanker division. Those small, agile, ugly yellow planes were the cash cow that used to keep the entire BBD air group up up & away. Possibly a previous administration (we won't mention the beaudoin family name) foolishly drained the life blood out of the firefighter tanker program in order to prime the C series initiative.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN14I0TN


.


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## AltaRed

To me, it was mostly about family ego to get into the jet aircraft program. Taxpayer dollars should not be used to prop the air business up. Sell it off. Let the remaining global players have that market and focus on ground transportation. BBD could potentially lock up the global train market if they had focused their resources on this business alone.


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## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> To me, it was mostly about family ego to get into the jet aircraft program. Taxpayer dollars should not be used to prop the air business up. Sell it off. Let the remaining global players have that market and focus on ground transportation. BBD could potentially lock up the global train market if they had focused their resources on this business alone.



not that my opinion matters, but i think that - although there is great merit to your point of view - nevertheless it's premature to discuss splitting the company as a viable solution.

remember, it's the taxpayers who will be left with the airborne division! surely we as taxpayers would reject that solution.

the "C" series story is way too far gone to halt now. It's a fantasy wish to say Get Rid of It/If only It had Never Happened. 

another part of the problem is the historical desire - make that a profound & powerful longing since WW II - on the part of ottawa to nurture an aerospace industry in canada. And bombardier has been the flagship ever since it bought federally-owned Canadair decades ago.

crippling bombardier's air division now would mean sacrificing the many smaller canadian companies that are active in the sector. Not just BBD's direct suppliers; rather how would it look to the rest of the world - where the likes of magellan, heroux etc also look to find markets - if canada says We're Pulling the Plug on Aerospace.

i think it's a story that will have to progress in tiny baby steps. The planes in the recent "C" sale to delta may have been loss leaders, but at least they sold. Parties who are into bombardier are frankly not seeing much light before the end of this decade, though.

PS on the subject of minding taxpayers' money in aviation: would you not be interested in the fate of the F-35 fighter purchase? those planes are now said to cost roughly $1 billion apiece over their maintenance lifetimes (all maintenance & training has to be done by the manufacturer lockheed martin in the US.)

at one point stephen harper was said to have signed up for 65 of em. That's 65 billion dollars. Figures like these put the bombardier C series problems into a kindergarten sandbox category.

.


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## AltaRed

BBD was doing just fine with its turboprop niche. Stick with what one is known for IF Canada...err Quebec has too much pride to let aerospace go altogether. 

As for the fighter jet, the dilemma/debate is really about how much of an order can be strong armed into being sourced from Canada. Is the obscene price of an F-35 worth the manufacturing work that Canadian industry can muscle out of the deal? If it had not been for that consideration, there were ready alternatives 'off the shelf' (USA and Europe) to meet Canada's needs. It is really about votes as JT's backpedalling is starting to show. He is unwilling to ignore that just as Harper did.


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## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> BBD was doing just fine with its turboprop niche. Stick with what one is known for IF Canada...err Quebec has too much pride to let aerospace go altogether.[


sounds good on paper but the time for that decision was like 12-15 years ago! far too late now!

plus it's ottawa that wants to nursemaid aerospace. Quebec only happens to be the site of what was the original Canadair federal military manufacturing facility.





> As for the fighter jet, the dilemma/debate is really about how much of an order can be strong armed into being sourced from Canada. Is the obscene price of an F-35 worth the manufacturing work that Canadian industry can muscle out of the deal? If it had not been for that consideration, there were ready alternatives 'off the shelf' (USA and Europe) to meet Canada's needs. It is really about votes as JT's backpedalling is starting to show. He is unwilling to ignore that just as Harper did.



sorry i'm unaware that any part of the F-35s was or is to be manufactured in canada. Even the training & maintenance of these aircraft are said to be mandatory back stateside ... for the life of each aircraft! that's where lockheed martin will really be able to clean up, on the life-of-aircraft income. To be picked right out of canadian taxpayers' pockets. Not to speak of failure to transfer technology to canada, etc.

another criticism one hears about the F-35s is that, while they may be stealth aircraft themselves, nevertheless they have to be frequently re-fuelled every four hours (afaik that is a very short re-fuelling interval). Canada's arctic is a vast, isolated, gigantic air space, so re-fuelling the F-35s will be a constant accompanying event. Re-fuelling planes, themselves, are not stealth aircraft. What is the purpose of paying so much extra for stealth fighters, when every enemy radar will be able to track where the planes are flying in canada by simply tracking the re-fuellers?

another issue is drone surveillance. Canada is said to be interested in developing drone piloting to patrol canada's gigantic arctic & high arctic territories. This would be significantly cheaper than a big fleet of F-35s.

i see that F-35 critics who have already made up their minds are saying that in less than 20 years, air defence is going to consist of drone surveillance, Iron-Dome-type armed radar systems & drone warfare. These critics are saying that the manned F-35s will be obsolete in less than 2 decades.

.


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## AltaRed

FWIW, I am on the side that says we should NOT be buying F-35s. Our focus should be on air defence and Maritime Coast Guard. A country our size with our coastline should have a Coast Guard operation womewhat akin to what the USA has.


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## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> FWIW, I am on the side that says we should NOT be buying F-35s. Our focus should be on air defence and Maritime Coast Guard. A country our size with our coastline should have a Coast Guard operation womewhat akin to what the USA has.




with u entirely
A + 1 for the coast guard


back to air defence, somewhere in the forum recently i posted about the new mobile medium-range radar systems that will soon be installed across canada. These are truck-mounted multi-mission (ie they can be integrated into a weapons system) force multipliers whose technology canada bought last year from israel's IAI Elta radar technology division.

to house them, teams of military are presently re-building some of the old abandoned cold war radar bases. Most of those had been dismantled by the 1970s.

what i don't know is to what extent NORAD is implicated in this new re-arming of the north. The original radar stations were all NORAD installations. Although nothing has been officially announced, it does not seem likely that tiny canada would go it alone when it comes to the radar-dependent defence of north America.


http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=1009679

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/nation...-canadian-army


.


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## hboy54

james4beach said:


> Did you steadily speculate in beaten up stocks for 10+ years, or did you just start in recent years?
> 
> What was your maximum drawdown / worst loss during 2007-2009 ?


This was directed elsewhere, but I can comment that yes most of the bad things that can happen to an investor have happened to me. I have had 6 bankruptcies. I had the portfolio drop something like 60% in 2008/2009. I have had margin calls.

I also have rationality dominate over emotion. (I also have my wife not paying attention so I don't have to worry about her rationality and emotions.) I think in terms of expected value. I do not fear a loss more than I value a gain. I can work past sunk cost fallacy, anchoring, and similar brain potholes.

I agree with your focus on fear for the average investor. The average investor is fearful. Where I draw the line is when you talk in absolutes and say something is not possible or sensible FOR ANYONE. I would agree that probably less than 1 in 100 investors have the disposition to invest how I invest.

I have a 10 year investing record over all assets excluding primary residence, pensions, and chattels 11% PA. The 15 year number is at least 10%, but the records are a bit murky as to what the leverage debt was at the time. For the 10 year number, if you take out the rental house I held until 7 or 8 years ago from my investing assets, the stock only part is going to be north of 13% PA if you tag the leverage debt to the house, and 15% PA if you tag the leverage debt to the stocks.

I would not expect the above to stand. I had a stunningly good year and reversion to the mean should knock it back a bit going forward. The 10 year period has had two periods of outstanding opportunity/fear: 2008/2009 for anything, and last 2 years oil, gas, and materials. Still, my long term record is likely to remain very good among the set of all investors, especially given the minimal work I put into it. The world is full of smarter people doing more reading and calculations, and doing not as well. 

My advantage is that I am fearless and am answerable to nobody in the short term. My -26% prior year (2015) return would have likely gotten me fired if I were a fund manager.



james4beach said:


> Oldroe, thanks for the reply. Sounds like some real adventures on those stocks. Ballard Fuel once nearly wiped me out
> 
> Cheers to you and best wishes for more good trading ahead, Happy New Year!


Oldroe was so rude to you with "diaper wearer", you are very generous to have responded. I don't agree with much of what you say, but you conduct yourself as a gentleman.

hboy54


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## Eclectic12

humble_pie said:


> ... another part of the problem is the historical desire - make that a profound & powerful longing since WW II - on the part of ottawa to nurture an aerospace industry in canada. And bombardier has been the flagship ever since it bought federally-owned Canadair decades ago.


It was more than a longing ... it used to be reality. Hughes wanted to buy the AeroLiner but Ottawa mucked it up by directing Avro to built fighters for the Korean war. Add in the new gov't's naive idea that cancelling the Aero wouldn't have much of an impact on the industry at large.

I'd have to dig out the reference but I can recall a book on it quantifying that it was something like thirty years for the Canadian aerospace industry to grow back to similar size. Trouble is most of that volume of business had become maintenance and parts instead of building planes.

Lots of US companies, including NASA were quite happy to hire away the talent that had been attracted to work in Canada.




humble_pie said:


> ... i see that F-35 critics who have already made up their minds are saying that in less than 20 years, air defence is going to consist of drone surveillance, Iron-Dome-type armed radar systems & drone warfare. These critics are saying that the manned F-35s will be obsolete in less than 2 decades.


Interesting ... I wonder if it will go that same way as "missiles will replace piloted fighters". I'd have to check but from the released notes of meetings between the Canadian and US gov't types, it was something under five years for the US to shift from "if Canada doesn't buy Bomarc missiles, they will be stationed at the US border leaving nuclear fallout to land on Canadian cities" to "Canada needs to buy fighters to protect the western provinces".

The Canadian minister was upset that a void the Arrow could have filled would end up being contracted to the US.


Cheers


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## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> Those are good points too.
> 
> Still, I've seen a pattern over the years of running into stock pickers (I've witnessed two bear markets): during bull market years, everyone does great and everyone is a pro stock picker. It's all so easy during a bull market. When the bear market hits, everyone gets wiped out and suddenly the returns are nothing to brag about any more.


That's where it depends on how the risk is spread around, what the prospects are and how quickly one reacts.

As I've mentioned before, I have had individual stocks go to zero or down 60% but have yet to be wiped out or not have spare cash to buy around the lows. That's through several crashes. I think I mentioned in another thread that the biggest equity drop I could find for 2008/2009 was around 10% in the same time that XIU was down 30%.

Then too, looking at the beaten up stocks, for each sale at a loss ... there was four or more 60% to 100% sells so overall it is positive.

I suspect this is connected to the many ways I see of making money so where others are sticking to a schedule, selling to stop paper losses (then waiting far to long to re-buy) or similar, I'm using a range of choices.

I am also not much of one for buying unless I can understand the ways to the company & investor can make money.


Cheers


*PS*

Some of the investments I have done well with, I could never have explained to my parents or convinced them to invest in. The investor, their makeup and their abilities play a big role as well IMO.


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## Electric

More bad news. Bombardier eliminated from NYC R211 procurement, which was a very large procurement for NYC subway cars. Last 6 major USA metro contracts have gone to the Chinese. The Chinese offer trains that are less than the cost of parts for Bombardier/Siemens/Alstom, and they offer very attractive financing from the Chinese government.

Bombardier no longer has a metro business in North America. That situation will spread to Europe in short order.

There is talk of a tie-up with Siemens, in which Bombardier would lead a joint venture comprising the (low-margin) rolling stock business, and Siemens would lead the (much higher margin) signaling and turnkey-transit-system business. It seems like a very bad deal for Bombardier shareholders.

I don't remember any orders for the C series coming through, since the Delta order which attracted a dumping complaint from the Americans.

There are very good reasons why BBD is one of the most shorted stocks on the TSX. Don't invest anything you are not prepared to lose.


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## jargey3000

.....not sure if i like their runway....(pun intended)


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## Dilbert

jargey3000 said:


> .....not sure if i like their runway....(pun intended)


+1 I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole!


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## Nerd Investor

I'm wondering if it's time to unload my pref shares before this turns into a pumpkin and the nice gain I'm sitting on evaporates. Even with the run up I've had, the yield is still substantial though... tough call. But I'm leaning towards taking profits.


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## humble_pie

Nerd Investor said:


> I'm wondering if it's time to unload my pref shares before this turns into a pumpkin and the nice gain I'm sitting on evaporates. Even with the run up I've had, the yield is still substantial though... tough call. But I'm leaning towards taking profits.



are your pfds rate-resets, NI?

i had some of those in bombardier a few years ago. As i recall, the thinking is that when they rise significantly above par due to favourable low interest rate environment, as they near the reset date they will decay downwards to par quite rapidly. 

i was able to sell my pfds more or less while they were cresting. Sure enough they did begin to sink shortly afterwards. I never got back into BBD issues so have no more tales to tell.

best of luck


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## Electric

The 80% Siemens stake in the signaling/systems JV is explained by the fact there is 3100 pages of evidence against the Russian mafia guy Bombardier employed to sell $20mm of signaling equipment to an Azerbaijan railway, for $104mm. The world bank is not amused, and will bar Bombardier from bidding on world bank funded projects for a long time. That means any project in China, India or pretty much any third world country. I guess if Siemens controls the JV, they would be able to bid.

The president of BT has been roped into the scandal now. If they fire him tomorrow, it would be admitting guilt. But he will be gone by Christmas for sure.

Incidentally, it is a criminal offence for a Canadian to make, falsify, or conceal records and payments related to the bribery of a foreign public official. There is a distinct possibility that some people at head office in YUL will attract charges.


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## Nerd Investor

humble_pie said:


> are your pfds rate-resets, NI?
> 
> i had some of those in bombardier a few years ago. As i recall, the thinking is that when they rise significantly above par due to favourable low interest rate environment, as they near the reset date they will decay downwards to par quite rapidly.
> 
> i was able to sell my pfds more or less while they were cresting. Sure enough they did begin to sink shortly afterwards. I never got back into BBD issues so have no more tales to tell.
> 
> best of luck


These are perpetuals. 
Still trading pretty far below par at the moment, although I have to think rate hikes will limit further upside. I have a limit order to sell at $18.25 for the next 10 days or so, we'll see if it hits.


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## james4beach

Bombardier is making international headlines after today's decision
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bombardier-cseries-duty-1.4308590
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-41397181

Does anyone think BBD.B will fall hard at Wednesday's open? I figure that best case scenario, it will give back Tuesday's gains which means 6% decline.

Bombardier was also among the most active Montreal options on Tuesday so I presume that huge amounts of money are about to be made/lost.


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## humble_pie

some are saying that boeing w trump's support - or trump w boeing's support - is trying to put bombardier out of business

the thought goes that ottawa should not now buy US made fighter aircraft at all. No hornets, no F35s. Someone has suggested sweden's Gripen, a less expensive lightweight SS fighter plane.

gripens would be a stunning, massive reversal decision, one that would draw canada away from the US of A & into the arms of europe for the next 40 years. I don't believe that canada should make that decision at the present time, not while a weak US president wreaks his havoc & may not even survive his first term.

.


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## Eder

Bombardier should have folded years ago but has been a Canadian darling instead. I wish we gave our large commodity businesses the same encouragement.


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## can_84

humble_pie said:


> some are saying that boeing w trump's support - or trump w boeing's support - is trying to put bombardier out of business
> 
> the thought goes that ottawa should not now buy US made fighter aircraft at all. No hornets, no F35s. Someone has suggested sweden's Gripen, a less expensive lightweight SS fighter plane.
> 
> gripens would be a stunning, massive reversal decision, one that would draw canada away from the US of A & into the arms of europe for the next 40 years. I don't believe that canada should make that decision at the present time, not while a weak US president wreaks his havoc & may not even survive his first term.
> 
> .


I find it troubling that we place a huge % of our trade in the hands of Americans. We should follow the golden rule of diversifying but the risk is that Donald may send the American Military over and just manage us I mean they do that with the rest of the world well except China and Russia.


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## Eder

bleh


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## gardner

Eder said:


> I wish we gave our large commodity businesses the same encouragement.


Plenty of provincial and federal money has gone into, and continues to go into oil sands development and projects like hibernia. The Americans are always bitching about how Canadian forestry is subsidised. BBD is by no means unique in getting taxpayer funded goodies as an inducement to stay in business and keep employing people doing something useful.


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## jargey3000

james4beach said:


> Bombardier is making international headlines after today's decision
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bombardier-cseries-duty-1.4308590
> http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-41397181
> 
> Does anyone think BBD.B will fall hard at Wednesday's open? I figure that best case scenario, it will give back Tuesday's gains which means 6% declin.


approx. 8% decline as I type.....pretty good call jim!


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## OnlyMyOpinion

gardner said:


> Plenty of provincial and federal money has gone into, and continues to go into oil sands development and projects like hibernia. The Americans are always bitching about how Canadian forestry is subsidised. BBD is by no means unique in getting taxpayer funded goodies as an inducement to stay in business and keep employing people doing something useful.


A historical perspective perhaps, and far different than propping up a single company and it's entitled, controlling family. In 2014:
_to put things in perspective, the industry that develops oil and gas resources in this country pays on average $18 billion a year in taxes and royalties to different governments across Canada. This means that by 2016, when the subsidy phase-outs are complete, it will pay about 250 times more in taxes and royalties than it receives in subsidies. Clearly, the Canadian oil industry is not a net beneficiary of governmental largesse_

http://www.iedm.org/sites/default/files/pub_files/note0414_en.pdf


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## Eder

gardner said:


> Plenty of provincial and federal money has gone into, and continues to go into oil sands development and projects like hibernia. The Americans are always bitching about how Canadian forestry is subsidised. BBD is by no means unique in getting taxpayer funded goodies as an inducement to stay in business and keep employing people doing something useful.



I meant broader path than oil sands...pipelines etc need help. Lumber needs a few threats like Bombardier got from our fearless leader. Ring of Fire needs gov help to develop & pay for our countries expenses. Bombardier is a dead business...just hasn't been buried yet.

Yes money has gone into oil sand development but in return they pretty much paid for confederation in return...what has Bombardier returned other than Francophone affection?


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## james4beach

jargey3000 said:


> approx. 8% decline as I type.....pretty good call jim!


Thanks! It's only down a little over 8%. That really isn't too bad at all. The stock is back to where it was on Monday, so at least the market has brushed off this news as not a big deal.


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## can_84

I would disagree Eder. It all depends on which part of Canada your in. Provinces like Ontario and Q.C where there are very highly educated populations companies like Bombardier add allot of high skilled jobs. So yes provinces like Alberta and Manitoba don't directly benefit but they do indirectly because bombardier needs minerals and energy to do the manufacturing which benefit the more resources centered provinces. The problem for Bombardier is the controlling family and our loud and bullish neighbors south of the border. If it were up to the Americans they would want us to sell them our raw resources so that they can turn them into airplanes and trains. Boeing is the #1 receiver of U.S aid by $ value they also benefit greatly from U.S military contracts. Boeing doesn't even make planes in the C series category and hence not sure why they would invoke the clause for the dumping. I assume they want to prevent Bombardier from building a bigger plane that would enter into direct competition with Boeing because this was a mistake they made with Air Bus. I think its important for Canadians to unite and fight the aggressive American protectionism that is emerging instead of dividing our lines by province we should seek to make a stronger Canada that can look back and big brother America and ask to be treated fairly.


See think link:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...winners-in-each-state/?utm_term=.87f246193ef9 

Boeing received $13 billion


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## james4beach

All the US aerospace and defense companies receive huge amounts of government money. It's a total joke for American companies to argue that Canadian companies receive unfair subsidies.


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## gibor365

> So yes provinces like Alberta and Manitoba don't directly benefit but they do indirectly


 No any province benefits from darn QC ... Lifetime equalization pyments to QC more than $200 billions, more than 50% of total payments.
Next year another 11+ billions! Ridilulous! Why not let them to separate?!


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## Eder

can_84 said:


> I think its important for Canadians to unite


I'm pretty sure us westerners got the message from Quebec loud & clear last year.

I do like Norm Levine's quote about Bombardier on BNN today

"I can think of absolutely no reason to ever own this stock. The #1 corporate bum company in Canada. If you take away its gifts of money, subsidies, cheap loans and favoritism, I doesn’t understand why they exist."


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## gibor365

Eder, those are artificial jobs ... pretending we have low unemployment rate


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## agent99

gibor365 said:


> Eder, those are artificial jobs ... pretending we have low unemployment rate


I once heard someone on BNN say (Kevin O'Leary, I think) that anyone can build long aluminum tubes. That is what he figured Bombardier does. (planes & trains) And they can't do that competitively. Mind you, most other companies in the same business also survive on government handouts. It seems politicians world wide think it is cool to have a national aerospace industry.


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## can_84

The equalization payment is distributed by the federal government based on the revenue they collect from Canadians that pay federal tax. Alberta is a small payer into this pool as Ontario has a GDP of $763 billion, Q.C has a GDP of $380 billion, Alberta has a GDP of 326 billion (these are 2015 numbers) and no I am not pulling this out of my bum... see here http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ15-eng.htm

The federal government would collect taxes in proportion to this GDP and then distribute to provinces to ensure quality of life is similar in every prince meaning they want to ensure the quality of health care, education, and so forth are the same across each province. 

Alberta does not pay into the pool as much as Ontario and Q.C does. Its easy to trash a another province but the reality is that Q.C is much more innovative and has a very complex economy than Alberta. Resource based economies are low level economies as they do not carry out value addition, innovation leads the way in prosperity. Ontario and Q.C contribute to a great deal in regards to innovation and value addition but this is not to say other provinces don't. What I am saying is its easy to trash talk Q.C because they are French but the reality is they add allot of value to Canada through innovation.


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## humble_pie

bombardier parts suppliers are located across canadian provinces from ontario to british columbia

alberta's oil tycoon murray edwards of CNQ oil sands fame is a part of this aerospace network through his majority ownership of magellan & other transport manufacturers.

.


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## OnlyMyOpinion

can_84 said:


> The equalization payment is distributed by the federal government based on the revenue they collect from Canadians that pay federal tax. Alberta is a small payer into this pool as Ontario has a GDP of $763 billion, Q.C has a GDP of $380 billion, Alberta has a GDP of 326 billion (these are 2015 numbers) and no I am not pulling this out of my bum... see here http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ15-eng.htm


Maybe you can reach in a little deeper and see if these numbers are in there though.

*2017-18 Federal support per capita:*
Alberta $1,388
Nfld & Lab $1,388
Sask $1,388
BC $1,388
Ontario $1,489
*Quebec $2,710*
Man $2,749
Yukon $25.9k
NWT $28.8k
Nunavut $42.0k


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## OnlyMyOpinion

can_84 said:


> ... Resource based economies are low level economies as they do not carry out value addition, innovation leads the way in prosperity...


Now that you did pull out of your ***. It sure didnt come out of a brain.
As it relates to Alberta and resources, the reason oil prices collapsed and you are still buying HC's at low prices is because of innovation. More innovation I dare say than you will see come out of Quebec's coddled sectors.


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## can_84

Q.C makes double the amount of revenue for the feds as Alberta does at $88 billion Q.C vs. $43 billion (Alta). Not sure what that works out to be per-capita. I would think that if Q.C sends $2 vs. Alta $1 then Q.C would receive 2x Alta? Speaking of which Ontario seems to be supporting the whole county lol... $109 billion!! 

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/govt56b-eng.htm


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## bgc_fan

To bring things back on track. Airbus is acquiring 50.1% of the C-series partnership.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/airb...stake-in-bombardier-cseries-program-1.3634867

Seems like a way to get out of the tarifs, and get some aid on providing stability to the C-series.


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## accord1999

can_84 said:


> Q.C makes double the amount of revenue for the feds as Alberta does at $88 billion Q.C vs. $43 billion (Alta). Not sure what that works out to be per-capita. I would think that if Q.C sends $2 vs. Alta $1 then Q.C would receive 2x Alta? Speaking of which Ontario seems to be supporting the whole county lol... $109 billion!!
> 
> https://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/govt56b-eng.htm


That table actually shows provincial government revenues. 

The table you want is 384-0047 http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=3840047&tabMode=dataTable&p1=1&p2=50&srchLan=-1&pattern=federal+general+government then click on Add/Remove Data and change Option 1 to "Federal general government, by province". 

In 2015 the Fed Govt collected $47.925B in revenue from Alberta and $49.134B from Quebec. But it only spent or transferred $24.819B in Alberta, while it spent or transferred $64.873B in Quebec.


----------



## james4beach

BBD.B opened substantially higher today and is currently trading +19% higher than yesterday's close!


----------



## Mortgage u/w

james4beach said:


> BBD.B opened substantially higher today and is currently trading +19% higher than yesterday's close!


Tomorrow, it will go back down.


----------



## Eder

So our tax money spent on Bombardier now actually went to Airbus lol. What a joke.


----------



## james4beach

I think in the long term, this is a selling opportunity on the stock.

Also notice how the price has steadily declined today since the open. It means that major holders are using the price jump as a selling opportunity.


----------



## AltaRed

Eder said:


> So our tax money spent on Bombardier now actually went to Airbus lol. What a joke.


Possibly... but also possibly saves yet more money being thrown at a losing venture. I didn't think the Cseries had a hope with 'cash deficit' BBD at the helm anyway. 

Now it has a fighting chance. What you rather have? 31% (or 19% depending on perspective) of something that should make money with the backing of Airbus, or 100% of nothing, or yet more taxpayer money thrown into the pit?


----------



## Eder

I guess what sticks in my craw is the special treatment that loser of a business gets as opposed to the middle finger real businesses that pay taxes,employ thousands and pad our GDP get. But ya in the long run its better for Bombardier to give itself away before showing up yet again hat in hand.


----------



## james4beach

It's still nothing compared to the endless support, back stopping, and free money the banks get from government and the taxpayer. When a company like Bombardier gets a bit of government money, we all take notice. Yet the banks get dramatically more total assistance and we don't even raise a finger in protest.


----------



## Eder

I'm pretty sure it has explained a few times why your view of our banks is flawed...I won't get into beating a dead horse.


----------



## nobleea

The government loans and historical hand outs notwithstanding, I think this is a good deal, if unusual. Without this deal, the C-series program would probably limp to its death as no US company would sign up for it anymore with the uncertainty. This maneuver probably increases the future sales of the C-series by 2x-3x. That's a win for BBD as they are much more likely to recoup costs, even if it has to be spread over more units. It's a huge win for Airbus as they get sales and profit for a small cost AND they get to stick it to Boeing. Win for Canada as a lot of parts are still made in Canada and even with changes to NAFTA, an airplane assembled in US with north american parts is still ok. BBD could have opened a plant in the US, but that's a long lead time item and no one is going to give them money for it. So partnering with Airbus was the only option. And there's virtually no overlap between Airbus' offerings and the C-series.


----------



## doctrine

Deal of the century, for Airbus. They bought a brand new plane that their major competitor doesn't even make, for nothing. For less than nothing - Bombardier has to absorb up to $700M of losses over the next two years. Subsidized by the Canadian government. The Canadian taxpayers are again the losers. Some planes will be made in Quebec, but the odds are very good more will be made in Alabama, especially in the long run.

By the way, the French government actually owns 11% of Airbus. For all of the billions given to Bombardier, Canada owns nothing. What a waste. Not that governments should be owning public companies, but if you give them billions, maybe you should own something.


----------



## bgc_fan

doctrine said:


> Deal of the century, for Airbus. They bought a brand new plane that their major competitor doesn't even make, for nothing. For less than nothing - Bombardier has to absorb up to $700M of losses over the next two years. Subsidized by the Canadian government. The Canadian taxpayers are again the losers. Some planes will be made in Quebec, but the odds are very good more will be made in Alabama, especially in the long run.
> 
> By the way, the French government actually owns 11% of Airbus. For all of the billions given to Bombardier, Canada owns nothing. What a waste. Not that governments should be owning public companies, but if you give them billions, maybe you should own something.


I suspect most of what is built in US, will be for that market. With Canada pursuing Free Trade agreements with other countries, I suspect that it would be beneficial to export from Canada rather than US.

The US is pretty bad then, $64B in subsidies and the US owns none of Boeing. https://globalnews.ca/news/3773916/bombardier-boeing-subsidies/
Before you argue that loan guarantees don't count as subsidies, that is precisely the definition of of subsides you are using for Canada.


----------



## doctrine

The US didn't get nothing. They got arguably the world's biggest and most successful aircraft company. They have profits and at least pay some taxes (in the range of a billion a year). Can Canada say the same? Now, all the aircraft won't even be built here. Maybe at first, but not forever. Imagine if the US government gave $64B to a company that sold half their stake for $-700M and decided to build half their aircraft in Mexico.


----------



## AltaRed

Don't forget that CETA plays a role somewhere here too. Free trade (almost) with Euro Zone. Don't know what that does for BBD operations in the UK.


----------



## bgc_fan

doctrine said:


> The US didn't get nothing. They got arguably the world's biggest and most successful aircraft company. They have profits and at least pay some taxes (in the range of a billion a year). Can Canada say the same? Now, all the aircraft won't even be built here. Maybe at first, but not forever. Imagine if the US government gave $64B to a company that sold half their stake for $-700M and decided to build half their aircraft in Mexico.


First of all Bombardier wasn't sold or given away. Only the C-series jets are in play. They still retain the other planes. 
Second, Bombardier gets access to more manufacturing capabilities as Airbus retools their plant.
Thirdly, this deals with the uncertainty of the tarrifs being imposed. Until that was resolved, I am sure no other American airlines would consider the C-series. With the support of Airbus, I am sure Bombardier would have a better payback than if they continued alone.

As for Boeing paying taxes, it seems to be the exception rather than the rule. If you add up all the taxes paid in last 15 years it may add up to about $3B.
https://www.seattletimes.com/busine...s-federal-income-tax-for-third-year-in-a-row/


----------



## humble_pie

an elegant & timely _volte face_ by canada. Supremely much better than leaving bombardier to wither as a hapless victim of donald trump's bipolar move to impose 300% duties on the C series.

the choice right now was not between C series as a going concern with no duties, ie a bold new enterprise aircraft that could conceivably pay off for both ottawa & quebec city.

the hard choice was between sudden death & finding a solution that would keep all the parts suppliers across both canada & the US in business. It was one of those rock vs hard place choices.

i very much like the airbus by-product, which is the opportunity to show the blowhard in the white house that canada is a country with a mind of her own. Now we can cancel the F-18 deal with boeing, no strings attached. Trudeau can even whisper in donald's ear - as i believe he already has - that airbus actually means good fortune for the US of A because it means C series production in alabama.

how did the liberal party manage to act so fast? they had the airbus deal locked down in a nothing of time.

did stephane dion - former leader of the liberal party, currently canadian ambassador to france - play a role here, in stitching canada & france together so effortlessly on this issue? or does the speed of the deal show how adroitly the rest of the world is cooperating, in order to prevent the mess in the white house from destroying the planet?


.


----------



## nobleea

humble_pie said:


> how did the liberal party manage to act so fast? they had the airbus deal locked down in a nothing of time.


BBD has mentioned that this deal has been under discussions for quite some time already, well before the us gov released any hard numbers on tariffs and duties. I have to believe there's some truth to that as it would be hard to believe a deal like this could be arranged in a couple weeks.


----------



## AltaRed

I believe it's been in the works for awhile. The BBD players had to know they didn't have the deep pockets to compete over the longer haul, even with potentially the best niche plane in the world. The Ottawa/Quebec bailouts were just a stopgap measure while the company peddled itself.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

dion, now there is a name we haven't heard in a while. 
Hearing it, what a way to ruin someone's day :upset:


----------



## Lawrence101

I paper traded BBD.B stocks awhile back and profitted $24.50cad......... woooohooo!


----------



## humble_pie

AltaRed said:


> I believe it's been in the works for awhile. The BBD players had to know they didn't have the deep pockets to compete over the longer haul, even with potentially the best niche plane in the world. The Ottawa/Quebec bailouts were just a stopgap measure while the company peddled itself.





nobleea said:


> BBD has mentioned that this deal has been under discussions for quite some time already, well before the us gov released any hard numbers on tariffs and duties. I have to believe there's some truth to that as it would be hard to believe a deal like this could be arranged in a couple weeks.




you guys are correct, BBD had been seeking massive input from aerospace companies all over the globe for years. Long predating the infusions of capital from both quebec city & ottawa. So sorry if i gave the wrong impression.

but the final driver that locked the airbus detail into place must have been trump's bipolar 300% import duties. I for one think it's worthy of praise that the liberals didn't dither but jumped for the solution instead.

did stéphane dion play a role? me i tend to like the quiet, academic, non-charismatic dion. I think he'd make a terrific behind-the-scenes ambassador to europe. His mother was french from france, he has close french relatives. These days dion would be right at home chez macron & cie.


.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

humble_pie said:


> ... did stéphane dion play a role? me i tend to like the quiet, academic, non-charismatic dion. I think he'd make a terrific behind-the-scenes ambassador to europe. His mother was french from france, he has close french relatives. *These days dion would be right at home chez macron & cie*.


I'm sure he would. To each their own Humble. He is however not the ambassador to France but to Germany, and 'special envoy' to the EU.

Coincidently, this little update just came out today: *What's going on with Stéphane Dion, anyway?* 

Discussion of dion may seem out of place in a BBD thread (I doubt he had any role in the deal), but as we Canadian taxpayers pay for his cushy 'retirement' and lovely cerebral junkets around Europe, it strikes me as wholly appropriate that he should be lumped in with BBD.


----------



## humble_pie

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> I'm sure he would. To each their own Humble. He is however not the ambassador to France but to Germany, and 'special envoy' to the EU.
> 
> Coincidently, this little update just came out today: *What's going on with Stéphane Dion, anyway?*
> 
> Discussion of dion may seem out of place in a BBD thread (I doubt he had any role in the deal), but as we Canadian taxpayers pay for his cushy 'retirement' and lovely cerebral junkets around Europe, it strikes me as wholly appropriate that he should be lumped in with BBD.



thanks for the ambassadorial locale refresher. IIRC from the time of his appointment during the big cabinet shuffle - when chrystia freeland replaced stephane dion as minister of foreign affairs - dion was named ambassador to both germany & france jointly. I remember talking with a knowledgeable source in ottawa about this dual posting. We both thought it seemed a little weird.

flash forward, i've no news since, today it appears you're totally correct, dion is the envoy to germany & the european union.

so either some wriggle happened in very early news reportage re the cabinet shuffle at the beginning of this year; or else my contact & i were talking about some fantasy french republic; or else who knows what.

my basic point is still good though. _the Liberals didn't allow the bombardier situation to fester._

btw - just curious - do your digs at "cushy retirements" & "junkets" on the canadian taxpayer's dime apply to the entire foreign service or only to stéphane dion? because if the former, then hasn't the canadian foreign service figured out how to finance early retirement much better than mister money moustache?

.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

humble_pie said:


> ...my basic point is still good though. _the Liberals didn't allow the bombardier situation to fester._


That is true, they stepped up to support the deal as soon as it was announced.



> btw - just curious - do your digs at "cushy retirements" & "junkets" on the canadian taxpayer's dime apply to the entire foreign service or only to stéphane dion? because if the former, then hasn't the canadian foreign service figured out how to finance early retirement much better than mister money moustache?


No, I do respect the work our diplomat service does on our behalf. I am being obstinate wrt to dion, I clearly don't have as high an opinion of him politically or as a Cdn representive. I do acknowledge his contribution to the Quebec file in the 1990's though.

My 'dander gets up' when costly political plums are handed out like so many halloween candies (by any party) and that is what I consider dion's appointment to have been - primarily as Trudeau's way of getting him out of his government.


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## humble_pie

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> That is true, they stepped up to support the deal as soon as it was announced.



well you has you views & i has mine ...

i canna see how the deal came together so quickly without at least the intervention of Quebec House in paris. Which would have meant the immediate recruitment of ottawa since the deal was so big & involved both gummints. Perhaps we shall never know.




> No, I do respect the work our diplomat service does on our behalf. I am being obstinate wrt to dion, I clearly don't have as high an opinion of him politically or as a Cdn representive. I do acknowledge his contribution to the Quebec file in the 1990's though.
> 
> My 'dander gets up' when costly political plums are handed out like so many halloween candies (by any party) and that is what I consider dion's appointment to have been - primarily as Trudeau's way of getting him out of his government.



the above is astute thinking i believe, since naming stephane dion as ambassador to an important european country was indeed a good way of getting him out of the cabinet. John mcCallum as well.

as best i can recall, stephane dion did not really want to go. There were rumours in the fall of 2016 that the plum was going to be france ... maybe they had to try him with first one plum, then another plum, until finally like goldilocks they came up with the plum that was just right.

canada does not have a bad reputation of giving plum diplomatic posts to longtime party faithful. In this regard, canada is not nearly as bad as washington, where all the world's top glamour spots automatically go to friends of the white house. It's very demoralizing for the US foreign service.

what's always been bad in canada is the granting of senate positions. We need reform there.

on the other hand, some journos were recently pointing out how a big reform over the past few years - more than a decade - has worked out well with the office of GG. Both liberal & PC gummints have sought in recent years to appoint a GG who is an activist role model, who most definitely is not a political patronage appointee being put out to pasture. Julie Payette is the latest GG named to this activist tradition. So at least we are getting some things right.

.


----------



## sisco

I'm curious to hear all your thoughts on the Airbus buyout option after 7.5 years.

Presumably if Airbus were to buyout the remainder of the CSeries program at that time, any security for workers in Qc would get thrown out the window. I'm of the impression that Airbus would want to retain the Qc workforce since they have proven then can build the jet well (customer satisfaction seems to be very high) and they have (and will continue to have) more experience with the jet than anyone else in the world. Others I've spoken to seem to be convinced that Airbus included that option because they are intent on buying out ASAP and relocating assembly to a lower cost region.

Thoughts?


----------



## humble_pie

sisco said:


> I'm curious to hear all your thoughts on the Airbus buyout option after 7.5 years.
> 
> Presumably if Airbus were to buyout the remainder of the CSeries program at that time, any security for workers in Qc would get thrown out the window. I'm of the impression that Airbus would want to retain the Qc workforce since they have proven then can build the jet well (customer satisfaction seems to be very high) and they have (and will continue to have) more experience with the jet than anyone else in the world. Others I've spoken to seem to be convinced that Airbus included that option because they are intent on buying out ASAP and relocating assembly to a lower cost region.
> 
> Thoughts?



totally impossible to go out 7.5 years. Almost impossible to go out 7 months. It's a bad situation but all parties have made the best of it, for the time being.

unfortunately i believe that the arguments in favour of keeping manufacture in quebec won't hold up longterm. Superficially they sound inviting - ie quebec can build the jet very well, customer satisfaction is high - but many lower-cost countries can compete on quality of manufacture. Those countries won't allow their leadership as low-cost manufacturers of highly engineered products to deteriorate imho.

not helping are the news setbacks for the BBD ground transport division.


.


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## AltaRed

humble_pie said:


> not helping are the news setbacks for the BBD ground transport division.


No kidding. A guaranteed way to lose business. Whatever are they thinking?


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## bgc_fan

humble_pie said:


> totally impossible to go out 7.5 years. Almost impossible to go out 7 months. It's a bad situation but all parties have made the best of it, for the time being.


Just to reinforce your point, at this moment, Airbus is saying they have no plans for exercising the buyout:
http://business.financialpost.com/t...ays-expects-to-sell-thousands-of-cseries-jets

It could be Airbus is viewing this more of a strategic partnership as opposed to buying some new technology.


----------



## nobleea

Interesting news now says it was the govt that suggested restarting talks with Airbus, rather than pair up with China. They were concerned about IP drainage and theft in a China tie-up and so Ottawa nudged BBD towards Airbus. Also interesting that Boeing had essentially the same offer presented to them a year ago, but passed on it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/c-series-bombardier-airbus-1.4370696


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

^ Humble called that one right.


----------



## Drauss

Airbus clearly outclassed Boeing.

The former is turning from an European consortium into a "global" player, with production lines now in China, Germany, Spain, France, US and now in QC. While Boeing is ever looking inward.
Watch for cancellation of A.318 and A.319 series as Airbus dumps those dogs and replaces with the top of the line CS-300. Quebec I believe will become a central pillar of Airbus's tentpole in NA along with Mobile. Those that think Airbus would just mess things up and wreck the CSeries, would be wrong (I think).

Too bad I sold my BBD shares exactly two week before the Airbus announcement.


----------



## agent99

Just read this:



> Bombardier Inc (BBDb). The company said on Monday it priced $1 billion worth of seven-year bonds at par with a final yield of 7.5 percent per year, underscoring strong demand for the deal partly slated to retire debt maturing in 2019. The final yield of the offering, which came in $100 million more than initially expected, is at the tight end of the 7.5 to 7.75 percent range it had used when marketing the deal. The company plans to use most of the proceeds to retire notes with a coupon of 4.75 percent due in 2019 and the rest for general corporate purposes.


Not sure I understand this. Does the 7.5% yield bond offering reflect on the risk in buying BBD bonds or is it an indication of what future corporate bond yields might be? 
Why issue 7.5% bonds to pay off 4.75% notes that won't mature for a year or two? Do they think they would have to offer a sweeter deal if they wait?

Reading further, I see that some of their outstanding bonds are already yielding in 7.5% range, so perhaps it reflects risk more than anything?


----------



## bgc_fan

Thought this was of note and a bit of a surprise, but Boeing lost the decision quite decisively, 4-0.

Stock is up 14% on the day.

http://business.financialpost.com/p...dier-expected-to-continue-after-friday-ruling


----------



## hboy54

bgc_fan said:


> Thought this was of note and a bit of a surprise, but Boeing lost the decision quite decisively, 4-0.
> 
> Stock is up 14% on the day.
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/p...dier-expected-to-continue-after-friday-ruling


What a nice surprise indeed. After about 20 years of being a shareholder the old dog can hunt.

Hboy54


----------



## OptsyEagle

Nice to see. The only question I have is didn't Bombardier already sell out a lot of their production to Airbus, because of the ruling. 

Perhaps I am confused. I don't own the stock but find the American "dirty tricks" politics interesting to watch ,these days.


----------



## bgc_fan

OptsyEagle said:


> Nice to see. The only question I have is didn't Bombardier already sell out a lot of their production to Airbus, because of the ruling.
> 
> Perhaps I am confused. I don't own the stock but find the American "dirty tricks" politics interesting to watch ,these days.


They "gave" away 50% of the C-series program. In exchange Airbus opens a new manufacturing line in Alabama. You can speculate that means they will eventually shut down the Quebec manufacturing, but in this case, I see the positive of extra manufacturing capacity and increased logistical chain support that Bombardier alone couldn't support, i.e. I suspect the Alabama manufacturing line will supplement and not replace Quebec manufacturing.

The case against Boeing was pretty sound, i.e. Boeing doesn't have a plane nor has plans for one that competes in the C-series class, but the US tribunal being what it is and given the Trump effect, it seemed like it would be a slam dunk for Boeing.


----------



## heyjude

Air Baltic is very happy with their C series and is planning to replace *all* its other planes with them. 

https://youtu.be/2vT_jHPlXIU

I think the AC series has a bright future. I’ve held some BBD.A for several years and will continue to hold them.


----------



## james4beach

24% drop in BBD.B today, taking it lower than it was a year ago. Ouch.



james4beach said:


> I still think that the 200 day moving average is very important. You can see how BBD.B dropped right down to it, flirted with it for a bit, but did not fall below that level. Instead it _bounced_ right off the 200 day and went higher.
> 
> Beware if BBD.B ever does fall below that 200 day moving average. It may be showing strength now, but on the multi-year time scale this is a VERY weak stock. There are a lot of itchy trigger fingers ready to dump more shares, and that's a T/A level they're watching.


I posted this some time ago. I think high risk stocks like BBD.B require watching the technicals... the stock fell sharply through the 200 day average in early October, which suddenly put it in bearish territory. This happened weeks before today's crash. Once a stock like this falls below that moving average, the risk increases substantially.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Must be time for more government money?


----------



## AltaRed

They are selling all their turboprop business and laying off a bunch of people.


----------



## Koogie

That was 372 million well spent. More taxpayer funds down the pisshole that is BBD in order to buy Quebec votes.

I'm starting to really sympathize with Western alienation.


----------



## kcowan

Koogie said:


> I'm starting to really sympathize with Western alienation.


Welcome Koogie. We need all the help we can get. It all began with freight rates long time ago...

We are also against any PM from La Belle Province!


----------



## james4beach

Today's low touched $2.02. I remember some time ago that brokers used $2 as a threshold for determining margin eligibility. Is that still the case today? I know that Interactive Brokers will not allow margin lending once a stock drops below $2.

It seems that TD's threshold is $3 which could be a reason this dropped very sharply at the $3 mark. There could be another big drop coming at the $2 level.


----------



## james4beach

Oops, and there we go. Once it dipped below $2, the selling accelerated on very high volume (173 million shares today, the highest volume day in many years). 20% drop in a single day, crashed to $1.67

http://schrts.co/jyqB3w

Absolute catastrophe on this one. I've said it before, it's so important to watch the technicals on high-risk stocks like this one. Critical warnings that appeared were dropping below the 200 day moving average on October 10 (price:4.00) and then the "death cross" on October 31 (price:3.20). Those are pretty good warning signals when you're considering getting out of a tenuous stock.

There's also a probe into executives selling stock, though I don't understand the issue there.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-regulator-to-halt-executive-sales-amid-probe


----------



## diharv

I rode BBD.B up and down from 1998 to 2001 or so , can't remember exactly when I bailed and whether I came out ahead or not . But I vowed never again to invest in any company that is so in bed with the government . This company is rotten right from the top.


----------



## hboy54

james4beach said:


> Absolute catastrophe on this one. I've said it before, it's so important to watch the technicals on high-risk stocks like this one. Critical warnings that appeared were dropping below the 200 day moving average on October 10 (price:4.00) and then the "death cross" on October 31 (price:3.20). Those are pretty good warning signals when you're considering getting out of a tenuous stock.


Why did you not report in on October 10? Why did you not report in on October 31? I looked back in this thread, nothing from you those days.

Further, why did you not (I assume, did not check) report to us how technicals told you to buy at $1 two or three years ago. Or sell back in July around $5?

It all just comes across as gloating from an armchair investor. You spend much of your time telling us that stocks are for the long term 10, 30 years even, then you with glee report in on a 1 day result. Do you not see the hypocrisy?

Yes, I have taken a beating this past week in BBD. I have also added to my position and hold 60% more shares than year end 2017 (having trimmed 30% at high $3s, damn, still can't predict the future) and over 110% more shares than 2 weeks ago.

What do your technicals tell you today, buy or sell at $1.67. Do you have the conviction to actually take a position based upon your analysis, or just continue to armchair it?

Reminds me of the old Monty python "nudge nudge, wink wink" skit:

...

Man: Well, you're a man of the world, squire.

Squire: Yes...

Man: I mean, you've been around a bit, you know, like, you've, uh.... You've 'done it'....

Squire: What do you mean?

Man: Well, I mean like,....you've INVESTED, with a stock....

Squire: Yes....

Man: What's it like?

There have been 3 opportunities for you to a priori comment here, $1, $5, and today. You could have purchased BBD.B near $1 as I did. You could have sold some near $4 (even short if you like) as I did. All we have is one comment in hindsight and zero ownership. Why should anyone pay any attention to you?


----------



## humble_pie

hboy54 said:


> Why did you not report in on October 10? Why did you not report in on October 31? I looked back in this thread, nothing from you those days.
> 
> Further, why did you not (I assume, did not check) report to us how technicals told you to buy at $1 two or three years ago. Or sell back in July around $5?
> 
> It all just comes across as gloating from an armchair investor. You spend much of your time telling us that stocks are for the long term 10, 30 years even, then you with glee report in on a 1 day result. Do you not see the hypocrisy?
> 
> Yes, I have taken a beating this past week in BBD. I have also added to my position and hold 60% more shares than year end 2017 (having trimmed 30% at high $3s, damn, still can't predict the future) and over 110% more shares than 2 weeks ago.
> 
> What do your technicals tell you today, buy or sell at $1.67. Do you have the conviction to actually take a position based upon your analysis, or just continue to armchair it?
> 
> Reminds me of the old Monty python "nudge nudge, wink wink" skit:
> 
> ...
> 
> Man: Well, you're a man of the world, squire.
> 
> Squire: Yes...
> 
> Man: I mean, you've been around a bit, you know, like, you've, uh.... You've 'done it'....
> 
> Squire: What do you mean?
> 
> Man: Well, I mean like,....you've INVESTED, with a stock....
> 
> Squire: Yes....
> 
> Man: What's it like?
> 
> There have been 3 opportunities for you to a priori comment here, $1, $5, and today. You could have purchased BBD.B near $1 as I did. You could have sold some near $4 (even short if you like) as I did. All we have is one comment in hindsight and zero ownership. Why should anyone pay any attention to you?




hboy long-term what do you see for bombardier? apart from a surface transportation company that is subsidizing hi-risk C series aircraft that is

for speculative swing trading i believe i'd rather pick the usuals - aapl, goog, googl, netflix etc

for scraping value out of the bottom of a barrel i believe i'd rather pick some canadian energy stocks


----------



## james4beach

hboy54 said:


> Why did you not report in on October 10? Why did you not report in on October 31? I looked back in this thread, nothing from you those days.


It's not my job to monitor all stocks and come and report here whenever I see any event. I observe things at my leisure.

I don't have a position in BBD.B and don't have any trading ideas on it right now. What I shared above is a technique that is helpful for getting out of high-risk stocks, something that has served me well, and that's common knowledge (even published by Investor's Business Daily). This stock is yet another case study that demonstrates why those indicators are useful. It will be helpful on other stocks, in the future.

I use technical analysis and these kinds of indicators in my Lowdiv portfolio. That's where I do my trading, and I disclose every position and every change to the portfolio. I've been watching BBD.B as a candidate for my portfolio, so I keep an eye on it.

You're so concerned about my contributions being armchair, even though I describe my methodology, post my trades, and share lessons I've learned. Where do _you_ disclose and track your trades publicly?


----------



## hboy54

james4beach said:


> It's not my job to monitor all stocks and come and report here whenever I see any event. I observe things at my leisure.


Come on James, you really believe "at your leisure". I see how you only comment to kick BBD when it is down, same as you do with GE. How many times have you come in here "look at GE 10 or 15 year history, $8, to $8". And I come in, ya but buy at $8 and sell most of it at $28 to $30 before it travels back down to $8, and one can, as in I did, make some serious money. Two, three times?

So what use is your commentary and your technicals on BBD.B when you have made $0, and as of today I am lifetime up ~$150,000 (admittedly after having been about break even on Friday)? Also admittedly being up ~$300,000 back in the days of $5.50.

You have a point that I don't post my trades, but you don't really either. No price paid, or dollar figures, or number of shares owned that I could find, but maybe I missed them . Percentage gain/loss on 1 share or 100,000, $1000, or $100,000, who knows. Having said that, the reason I don't post trades is it isn't a useful exercise. Again, how you harp on and preach how stocks are only reliable over 10, 30 years, yet you are reporting in on a part of your portfolio second by second as if it has any long term value to you or anyone else. It does not. Do you really not see this, and the hypocrisy?

Since you asked, last weeks transactions in BBD.B:

Nov 13 TFSA 12,000 at $2.41 for 28929.99
Nov 13 RRSP 18,000 at $2.31 for $41589.99
Nov 15 Wife's TFSA 13,600 at $2.15 for 29249.99
Nov 16 Margin 20,000 at $1.80 for 36009.99
Nov 16 TFSA 13,300 at $1.83 for 24,348.99
Nov 16 Wife's RRSP 8900 at $1.81 for 16118.99

Last week aggregate 85,800 at $2.05 for $ 176,247.94

Total position 162,700 at $1.94 for $315,939, at recent $2.39, market is $3888803 and gain is $72,864.
Sold 27,000 at $3.87 for a gain of $32,430 calendar 2018
Other estimates gains and dividends past 20 years in BBD.B and occasionally prefs ~$30,000 to $50,000.

Frankly James, nobody has been a forthright over the years about how they invest and the times it does not go well as I have been. Did you miss the Man! thread where on February 12, 2016 I reported how I was racking up losses and down about a half million dollars. Found with a search https://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/70114-Man!/page2?highlight=NBD

Here is an excerpt:

Below is a table of my riskier stuff comparing year end 2013 to today. Some is risky because the particular companies are really not doing well currently, some is risky because it is a huge percentage of the portfolio.

Holding	year end 1013	today	ACB	price	approx 5 year high
BBD.B	15,800	90,000	2.19	0.83	5
BTE	0	33,700	5.79	2.60	50
ECA	3000	15,400	10.79	4.99	30
HSE	2530	3000	15.59	12.10	30
LRE	0	277,500	.50	0.36	5
MX	3000	3800	20.05	36.21	80
NBD	6400	8200	17.83	20.64	35
SU	1900	0	n/a	n/a	n/a
TCK.B	0	17,400	10.26	6.26	50


In dollars, the above table represents a loss of over a half million dollars on about 1.3M dollars ACB. But if instead you count barrels of oil; tons of coal, copper, zinc; production capacity of facilities; desks, chairs, computers and pencils, intelligence of the people involved in the particular enterprises, I am way, way up. Maybe, just maybe one day, the valuation in dollars will rise to reflect something closer to past valuations.

Also the above was paid for in part with capital gains of other entities sold with an aggregate gain of about 1/4M, a fair bit of which was purchased circa 2008/2009 at low prices. All in all if every position above went to zero, it would wind the family net worth back to about double what it was in early 2009 when many thousands of people would have sold their losing positions and sat in GICs ever since. I would suggest that if every position above went to zero, I'd be on my backhoe in the back 40 digging a bunker and booby trapping the perimeter of the property, because society has failed.

I am being greedy when others are fearful. I might have to report down the road to the undoubtedly great delight of james4beach that I have lost it all ... but I might not too. In the short term, of key interest is whether LRE is worth zero or I manage to get out with $144,300 (@0.52/sh buy out). Anyhow, I cannot be accused of being an armchair investor, always researching, formulating theories, making predictions, telling others what they should do, preaching that stocks are bad, in general talking up and down all about investing ... without ever actually doing much of it.

***

Notice how I have been calling you an armchair investor for a very long time. Granted I will concede that you do actually have some skin in the game now. I still consider you armchair relative to all the talking and back testing, and this and that portfolio, and historical this and that ... Honestly, you do more "research" in a month than I've done in 35 years, yet my lifetime results blow yours out of the water. It could be that I am merely lucky going on 35 years now, but maybe, just maybe I have some insights to this game that you lack.

So what happened the rest of 2016? Quite a bit in fact. 2016 was my best calendar year ever, but I never reported back. I had decided that I would no longer report in the annual year end beauty contest on account, as mentioned already in this post, short term results are meaningless. For the record, and I expect that few will believe this, but my calendar 2016 was +104%.

So James, I have very much discussed what I do and why I do it. I have told of huge volatility. I have on numerous occasions mentioned my 6 bankruptcies. I talk of expected value. I talk of it being acceptable to have a transaction lose money, have a stock lose money, have a stock go bankrupt, have a negative year, why I don't own FI, why I leverage. All these things are acceptable if the forest on average returns a nice big fat number like 11% PA up until 3 months ago (likely 10% PA now as we have swung from +15% YTD to -15% YTD). Yet, again and again I get to hear from you "nobody reports their stock misses and failures", "survivorship bias", "30 year bull market", Bombardier is crap, GE is crap ... all the reasons I cannot achieve what I have actually achieved. Did I mention my 6 bankruptcies?

You seem to think that you are a representative investor and therefor your insights are pretty much useful to most anyone. Maybe you are, though personally I think you are top decile for fear and perhaps on that basis not representative. 

I don't much record what I do any more because I know there is nobody out there who can do what I do, who can understand why I do it, whose brain is wired like mine to think about risk and fear differently, and why it works. Am I wrong? Who more than doubled their BBD.B last week? OK, let's make the test easier, who purchased some BBD.B last week? Just like I thought, crickets.

Why did I pounce on BBD.B last week you ask? (I will assume that maybe, just maybe one person out there is curious how I could be so reckless and crazy). I'll start with what I didn't do. I didn't review the financials or the balance sheet or the quarterly report. Everyone has this, there is no unique insight there. I did not chart it and do whatever you do with charts James. My thinking is no more or no less than thus: What is different with the company between July $5.50 and last week ~$2? July, no C series orders, last week no C series orders. Last week, sale of divisions with annual sales about $2B out of total annual sales $18B, with offsetting cash to be received. July, rail deliveries late and defective, last week same. Last quarter profit $0.04, previous quarter, I don't even remember $0.03 maybe. The business of $600M FCF gone MIA. In total, approximately nothing is different for a 2.5 scale change in stock price. The bottom line is that the expected value increased by a factor of 2.5. I cannot tell you an actual expected value, but at $5 SP, upon sticking my finger in the air, would have been closer to unity than two. At SP $2, the expected value is likely between 3 and 4, a nice factor over the minimum 2 I like to see.

If anyone wants to learn one thing about what I do it is that I primarily buy expected value. Everyone is right. Bombardier has been a multi decade disaster for shareholders and taxpayers. What does that have to do with the opportunity last week? Everyone can tell me that past good performance is not indicative of future good performance, yet the logical equivalent, past bad performance is not indicative of future bad performance somehow does not apply for most investors. Maybe Bellmaire is taking this turd, and leaving it in the sun to dry and have the UV sterilize away the pathogens, such that one day it will fertilize some financial gardens. Bomber may go bankrupt in the end, but I see some improvements these past few years and I think a pretty good expected value lies here. My money is on it. What say your chart James?

hboy54


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## james4beach

hboy54 said:


> So what use is your commentary and your technicals on BBD.B when you have made $0, and as of today I am lifetime up ~$150,000 (admittedly after having been about break even on Friday)? Also admittedly being up ~$300,000 back in the days of $5.50.


The commentary is an observation of the current state of the stock, and musings about what's going on with it. In case you haven't noticed, that's what 99% of these threads are about.

There are also a couple threads that actually track real portfolios and trades. I have a couple of those. Where are yours?

You talk a lot and criticize me for being armchair, and say that you're an expert, but I'm the one who actually posts my real trades, portfolio updates, and performance. And I don't do it in hindsight and come back and say "I've made a lot of money". I post them as I actually do it.

I _am_ considering adding BBD.B to my Lowdiv portfolio. I am deciding against it for now. There's your commentary and clear answer


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## OnlyMyOpinion

james4beach said:


> ... I _am_ considering adding BBD.B to my Lowdiv portfolio. I am deciding against it for now.


Bombardier might be a good idea for a new "I'm going bankrupt again" portfolio?


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## james4beach

BBD.B now again approaching its previous lows, seems to be heading back towards $2. Glad I decided against adding it to the portfolio (at my last portfolio update, I added WCN instead, which is hitting new all time highs).

Bombardier is now 60% lower than its 2018 peak. Ouch.
http://schrts.co/FpWTWRJE


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## AltaRed

Bombardier is a perennial loser. Can't seem to survive sucking on at least 2 taxpayer teats, never mind most corps doing well on their own. Gotta let this beast die.


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## Mechanic

Didn't they use the last taxpayer bailout to give the executives a bonus ?


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## james4beach

My word, BBD.B crashed -32% yesterday (January 16)

Wednesday January 15 closed at $1.79
Thursday January 16 closed at $1.22 ... -31.8%

Surprisingly low volume for such a catastrophic move. That's a really bad move in the equity. Bloomberg article says "The shares posted their biggest loss ever" but I'm not sure what that means; largest % drop in history?



> “The joke continues,” said John O’Connell, chief executive officer of Toronto-based Davis Rea Ltd. “This company has been a disaster my whole career and I’m almost ready to retire.”


I've posted this tip before... the 200 day moving average is a good rule of thumb. A good stock should be staying above the 200 day moving average. A stock which stays below the 200 and struggles to get above it is not a good holding. Bombardier had been below the 200 day ever since October 2018 and did not get back above it for a single day. Really bad sign.


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## peterk

Uhg. What am I doing!? Made a lot of bad decisions lately. Should've just bought the damn index funds all along...

Now what - sell this dog and move on? or hope for a bounce back? I bought at $1.82.


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## Beaver101

I bit the bullet and got out last year ... with a small loss. Cost of stock-trading learning .. LOL. Now I wait to see if this company survives.... would be kind of sad if it didn't.


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## james4beach

peterk said:


> Uhg. What am I doing!? Made a lot of bad decisions lately. Should've just bought the damn index funds all along...
> 
> Now what - sell this dog and move on? or hope for a bounce back? I bought at $1.82.


This is a tough decision and there's no "correct" answer. One standard approach is to decide what % loss is your giving up point. Commit yourself to dumping the position if the loss exceeds that.

For example, and I am deliberately writing this without looking at any of the prices involved... I might say for a highly speculative and highly volatile position that I would be willing to see a 40% loss but would give up at that point. The more volatile a stock is, the wider this threshold should be.

(Now looking at numbers) you bought at 1.82, it's currently 1.14, that's 37% decline. Interesting.

The reason I use technical analysis is that it helps provide guidelines for these kinds of problems.


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## AltaRed

This sucker has had a history of balance sheet problems, poor decision making, and a pattern of enablers willing to provide a safety net. It's a needy child. You can't make this stuff up https://business.financialpost.com/...l-year-results-on-challenging-rail-projects-2

I suspect the stock will get a bounce when they finally decide they must let the aviation business go and put their attention towards properly engineering rail cars. They seem to have problems there too. 

Peter, you may have to wait until sometime this summer when they eventually realize they may have to completely dismember the company. As per James, pick a target like $1.49 (or whatever), put in a Good through infinity limit order on it, and stick to it. Stop watching it too. It's lost money.


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## EPS_Investor

Ridiculous company and history, only reason it's still alive is due to a handful of old patriotic Quebecois nationals that keep pushing provincial and federal governments for support to keep it alive because its "Canadian" and "Quebecois". I can't stand how we boycott companies and competition from entering the country because of patriotism which leads to blind pride. Capitalism is about businesses growing, not handouts, especially not some aviation company. 

Examples, it's more expensive to fly from Western Canada to Eastern Canada then going to Europe, US, etc. Open it up for international companies to come in!

Then you have the four telecoms basically ripping everyone off, let the American telecoms in!

I can go on and on. I mean provinces can't even sell booze to each other, you get in trouble for crossing provincial lines with alcohol. What kind of stupidity is that!


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## Eder

Sorry you guys got hosed. Bombardier has and always has had bad management...like Trans Alta...basket case.


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## AltaRed

EPS.... Suggest you edit post #860 to get rid of the gratuitous political rant, i.e. last para of your post.


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## off.by.10

EPS_Investor said:


> Ridiculous company and history, only reason it's still alive is due to a handful of old patriotic Quebecois nationals that keep pushing provincial and federal governments for support to keep it alive because its "Canadian" and "Quebecois".


There's that but I think it's also the many "well paid jobs" it provides. Politicians always end up caving. I really hope I am wrong but I suspect there will be another handout before the next provincial election. At least our current PM is a businessman so there's hope he'll require some proper structural changes before handing out the money.


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## james4beach

Why don't we just nationalize this or something then? Who cares if the equity is wiped out (jobs are more important anyway). If it's going to be heavily govt subsidized, why pretend it's a commercial entity?

I'm not saying this sarcastically. The jobs *are* important, as is having a domestic capability to build planes and trains. This might be a good candidate for something Canada should own.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Why don't we just nationalize this or something then? Who cares if the equity is wiped out (jobs are more important anyway). If it's going to be heavily govt subsidized, why pretend it's a commercial entity?
> 
> I'm not saying this sarcastically. The jobs *are* important, as is having a domestic capability to build planes and trains. This might be a good candidate for something Canada should own.


We can't afford to buy and subsidize yet another failing company.
Taxpayers are maxed out.

I don't like government privatizing stuff.
But if they were, I'd want to make sure the current management, and those holding supervoting shares, who got us into this mess, get NOTHING.


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## doctrine

james4beach said:


> Why don't we just nationalize this or something then? Who cares if the equity is wiped out (jobs are more important anyway). If it's going to be heavily govt subsidized, why pretend it's a commercial entity?
> 
> I'm not saying this sarcastically. The jobs *are* important, as is having a domestic capability to build planes and trains. This might be a good candidate for something Canada should own.


Do we need the domestic capability to build planes and trains that no one wants? Bombardier doesn't make anything that Canada or Canada's government needs to buy. Our national railways don't use their trains. Nor do our air force use their planes. Because they need planes and trains that work. Buying them out would be the worst decision possible because then we would be stuck with their products.


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## m3s

doctrine said:


> Our national railways don't use their trains. Nor do our air force use their planes. Because they need planes and trains that work.


Eh Toronto/Vancouver/Montreal have Bombardier trains that I can think of.. as does Via rail.. and most major cities around the globe. Seems they mades good trains but will need to compete with emerging tech like Elon Musk's hyperloop..

Our air force and air lines use de Havilland planes which originated to build planes for WWII. It was a crown corp until the 1980s, sold to Boeing and then Bombardier (apparently split off last year again as De Havilland). The air force also uses 1 Bombardier plane.. kind of sort of not for long

Canada was once a leader of the aerospace industry but the Avro Arrow threatened the US and we caved. The sale of the C series was the nail in the coffin. We could have specialized on developing some part of the Joint Strike Fighter but alas


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## james4beach

Maybe if the government takes it over and throws out the useless executives & managers, something better can emerge. It could be better as a Crown Corporation.

Much like De Havilland (which m3s mentioned) which was a crown corp for 40 years.

I frequently fly in Bombardier's Q400 planes. In fact Air Canada has quite a few Bombardier regional jets + props

https://aircanada.mediaroom.com/201...craft-to-More-Western-Canada-Regional-Markets


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## m3s

james4beach said:


> I frequently fly in Bombardier's Q400 planes. In fact Air Canada has quite a few Bombardier regional jets + props


Q400 is really a de Havilland Dash 8 that happened to be built while Bombardier controlled de Havilland. Bombardier added active noise control hence the Q. Turboprop uses half the fuel of a regional jet and requires less maint. It's the plane the mechanic stole from SeaTac and did aerobatics without any pilot experience. The Dash 8 is flown around the globe

Air Canada flies some Embraer which is a kick in the nuts to Bombardier. The only time I recall flying on a CRJ was ironically United airlines. Bombardier C series is apparently a really good plan though - a kick in the nuts to Embraer. Maybe if Embraer and Bombardier joined forces they could have competed with Boeing and Airbus


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## OptsyEagle

james4beach said:


> Why don't we just nationalize this or something then? Who cares if the equity is wiped out (jobs are more important anyway). If it's going to be heavily govt subsidized, why pretend it's a commercial entity?
> 
> I'm not saying this sarcastically. The jobs *are* important, as is having a domestic capability to build planes and trains. This might be a good candidate for something Canada should own.


If it was government run it would have gone bankrupt a decade or more ago.

If the government took it over, two events would take place. 1st, the government would start poking their noses into how it is run. In the business world a nose gets poked in for the betterment of the company. In the political world a nose gets poked in for the betterment of society to result in hopefully better numbers at the next election. Those two do not always go hand in hand. Hence why we can't have government running business. Just look at the state of crown corporations for how well that can work out.
2nd, if the government simply hands over money, when it is needed by private industry and then goes away, the risk element that is required in business, so that they make better decisions, would start to fall away.

Business has to make it on their own or the next best result is a quick failure, so those workers can get on with their new life.

I hope that answers your question.


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## james4beach

m3s said:


> Q400 is really a de Havilland Dash 8 that happened to be built while Bombardier controlled de Havilland. Bombardier added active noise control hence the Q. Turboprop uses half the fuel of a regional jet and requires less maint. It's the plane the mechanic stole from SeaTac and did aerobatics without any pilot experience. The Dash 8 is flown around the globe
> 
> Air Canada flies some Embraer which is a kick in the nuts to Bombardier. The only time I recall flying on a CRJ was ironically United airlines. Bombardier C series is apparently a really good plan though - a kick in the nuts to Embraer. Maybe if Embraer and Bombardier joined forces they could have competed with Boeing and Airbus


I always think of that theft incident. Imagine how stable and cooperative this plane must be in the air... just how well it's designed. The fighter jet pilots watching the Q400 saw the amateur pilot do amazing acrobatic maneuvers. I feel very safe in that plane.

I've flown in the CRJ but forget where that was. It was a nice aircraft.


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## m3s

Some of it is on youtube (bad language few minutes in)





\

Canadair was also crown corp with air force history privatized in the '80s and subsequently Bombardier (Challenger business jets and CRJs). The CL-415 amphibious firefighting aircraft was pretty unique and still flown


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## AltaRed

OptsyEagle said:


> If the government took it over, two events would take place. 1st, the government would start poking their noses into how it is run. In the business world a nose gets poked in for the betterment of the company. In the political world a nose gets poked in for the betterment of society to result in hopefully better numbers at the next election. Those two do not always go hand in hand. Hence why we can't have government running business. Just look at the state of crown corporations for how well that can work out.


<Off-topic> to reinforce that point is Canada Post. The Liberals interference into the Canada Post plan to eliminate most home and rural route delivery is already killing Canada Post with losses in both 2018 and 2019 (most likely). It is absolutely dumb that some 300,000 new postal addresses are added each year, but that 'lettermail' and 'admail' volumes decrease every year. https://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/examendepostescanada-canadapostreview/rapport-report/consult-eng.html Reading the executive summary is all one needs to do.


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## MrMatt

AltaRed said:


> <Off-topic> to reinforce that point is Canada Post. The Liberals interference into the Canada Post plan to eliminate most home and rural route delivery is already killing Canada Post with losses in both 2018 and 2019 (most likely). It is absolutely dumb that some 300,000 new postal addresses are added each year, but that 'lettermail' and 'admail' volumes decrease every year. https://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/examendepostescanada-canadapostreview/rapport-report/consult-eng.html Reading the executive summary is all one needs to do.


I have a superbox, it's better than a home mailbox.
It's also safer and cheaper for Canadapost.

I don't think anyone is saying they don't mail letters or buy admail because it is giong to a superbox.


Personally I think most lettermail (ads and bills) could go to an every other day delivery schedule at significant cost save and little customer impact.


It's crazy that I can get items shipped from China for less than the cost of a mailing a letter within Canada.
For small business shipping is a big deal, and we need cheap shipping to be competative.


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## AltaRed

I didn't want to derail the BBD thread any more than I have, so chose not to discuss options...but we could in a CP thread!

The point is there was political interference into a crown corp that should be left to fulfill its mandate in the best way it finds possible.


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## humble_pie

MrMatt said:


> Personally I think most lettermail (ads and bills) could go to an every other day delivery schedule at significant cost save and little customer impact.
> 
> For small business shipping is a big deal, and we need cheap shipping to be competative.



at risk of de-railing bombardier discussion but the above on CP are good suggestions.

we already have only twice-weekly mail delivery in my hood. Possibly across my entire ville. Occasionally the postie gets himself up to 3 times a week. It's all perfectly OK. It's said that CP is making money nowadays only on package & express post deliveries.

back to BBD, the founding family les bombardier/beaudoin made off with the profitable recreational vehicles division - started off as skidoo division once upon a time - years ago. Recently they sold portion to the public, believe it trades as DOO. 

loss/shutdown of aircraft division will impact hundreds of parts suppliers all over canada as well as northeastern US states, even north central US. Engine sub-contractors are giant american aerospace manufacturers, but there are hundreds of small parts fabricators involved.


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## OptsyEagle

MrMatt said:


> I have a superbox, it's better than a home mailbox.
> It's also safer and cheaper for Canadapost.
> 
> I don't think anyone is saying they don't mail letters or buy admail because it is giong to a superbox.
> 
> 
> Personally I think most lettermail (ads and bills) could go to an every other day delivery schedule at significant cost save and little customer impact.
> 
> 
> It's crazy that I can get items shipped from China for less than the cost of a mailing a letter within Canada.
> For small business shipping is a big deal, and we need cheap shipping to be competative.


Mail should only be delivered 2 days per week at the most and it should be delivered to a superbox. Everything else is political waste.


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## james4beach

Some of the folks in this thread who are saying the government should stay out of this stuff, not subsidize, not support...

I don't think many of you realize to how large an extent the US government stands behind a huge number of major US industries. Aerospace is very heavily government subsidized in all western countries. Companies like Boeing wouldn't even exist (and certainly wouldn't be viable) without tremendous government handouts and support. Same is true in Europe.

In fact, government assistance and subsidies help make US industries very strong. Just about everything... high tech, finance, health, aerospace... is very heavily government supported in the US, and that country is the champion of capitalism and free enterprise. There wouldn't be much of a US economy without government backing and assistance.

People these days talk about silicon valley as a monster of industry but this too is heavily government supported, especially decades ago when the industry was young and up-and-coming. It was very heavily funded by the public.

Something to think about before you say the government shouldn't be playing a role.


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## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> Some of the folks in this thread who are saying the government should stay out of this stuff, not subsidize, not support...
> 
> I don't think many of you realize to how large an extent the US government stands behind a huge number of major US industries. Aerospace is very heavily government subsidized in all western countries. Companies like Boeing wouldn't even exist (and certainly wouldn't be viable) without tremendous government handouts and support. Same is true in Europe.
> 
> In fact, government assistance and subsidies help make US industries very strong. Just about everything... high tech, finance, health, aerospace... is very heavily government supported in the US, and that country is the champion of capitalism and free enterprise. There wouldn't be much of a US economy without government backing and assistance.
> 
> People these days talk about silicon valley as a monster of industry but this too is heavily government supported, especially decades ago when the industry was young and up-and-coming. It was very heavily funded by the public.
> 
> Something to think about before you say the government shouldn't be playing a role.




definitely something to think about!

to carry the thoughts a step further _direction cynicism_, it's eerie how much war improves an economy. Gigantic stock market winners over the past decade have been US aerospace & defense manufacturers.


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## james4beach

humble_pie said:


> to carry the thoughts a step further _direction cynicism_, it's eerie how much war improves an economy. Gigantic stock market winners over the past decade have been US aerospace & defense manufacturers.


Also a good illustration of how government stimulus boosts the stock market. These companies have received enormous sums of money from the US govt.

And myself, working at small company which was downstream from US government spending, also benefitted. Where did I put that excess money in my pocket? The stock market. The money originated from government, though it changed hands many times of course.

Frankly I'm not sure there would be much of a US economy (and North American economy) at all if it wasn't for US government spending. These hardcore conservative capitalists at CMF have government spending to thank.


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## doctrine

james4beach said:


> Also a good illustration of how government stimulus boosts the stock market. These companies have received enormous sums of money from the US govt.
> 
> And myself, working at small company which was downstream from US government spending, also benefitted. Where did I put that excess money in my pocket? The stock market. The money originated from government, though it changed hands many times of course.
> 
> Frankly I'm not sure there would be much of a US economy (and North American economy) at all if it wasn't for US government spending. These hardcore conservative capitalists at CMF have government spending to thank.


Interesting discussion, but the US is much less dependent on government spending than Canada already. You do know the % of GDP that government spending accounts for in both countries, yes? And Canada already has no shortage of government supported businesses. I believe that decades of mismanagement has clearly demonstrated why Bombardier should not be given more billions of taxpayer dollars. Maybe those billions should be given to companies that can make trains and planes that people want and work first? Or just flush it down the toilet.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Also a good illustration of how government stimulus boosts the stock market. These companies have received enormous sums of money from the US govt.
> 
> And myself, working at small company which was downstream from US government spending, also benefitted. Where did I put that excess money in my pocket? The stock market. The money originated from government, though it changed hands many times of course.
> 
> Frankly I'm not sure there would be much of a US economy (and North American economy) at all if it wasn't for US government spending. These hardcore conservative capitalists at CMF have government spending to thank.


Things are going well in spite of, not because of government interference.


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## nobleea

There are apparently talks going on between Airbus and BBD for Airbus to buyout the entire A220/C-Series program.
Considering the program cost 6Bil to develop and Airbus got it for free, I would think such a buyout would be in the billions.


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## AltaRed

nobleea said:


> There are apparently talks going on between Airbus and BBD for Airbus to buyout the entire A220/C-Series program.
> Considering the program cost 6Bil to develop and Airbus got it for free, I would think such a buyout would be in the billions.


It better be....with $10B of debt on the books. They will still need to sell their business jet business OR the rail business to fix the balance sheet.


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## nobleea

Looks like a done deal. 770M I think.
Quebec still owns 25% of the program and can't be bought out until 2026. They might actually make money on their 1B 'investment'


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## Mortgage u/w

nobleea said:


> Looks like a done deal. 770M I think.
> Quebec still owns 25% of the program and can't be bought out until 2026. They might actually make money on their 1B 'investment'


Just under 600M according to article:

https://montrealgazette.com/busines...-sells-off-a220-stake-ending-c-series-chapter


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## nobleea

600US, 770 CAD or something like that.


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## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> m3s said:
> 
> 
> 
> ... The only time I recall flying on a CRJ was ironically United airlines./QUOTE] ... I've flown in the CRJ but forget where that was. It was a nice aircraft.
Click to expand...

I flew on a CRJ every week on AC from Toronto to Washington for about five months in 2001. Then again in 2005 from Ottawa to Chicago.

Not so far for a US carrier.


Cheers


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## james4beach

BBD.B is tanking even more than the market, down 12% today so far

I have used technical analysis for many years, and have learned what a dying company's chart looks like. I don't like saying this guys but the stock price is acting like Bombardier is reaching a terminal event.

This is one of the worst charts I've seen of any major company in Canada. The charts are not predictive, but they help "read" what the rest of the market thinks of a company.

And this isn't a new situation. The chart has looked horrible for a long time. This is what I wrote *more than 4 years ago*, and the situation is no different today:



james4beach said:


> The multi-year price action on Bombardier is horrific. This is the chart of a crashing stock on its way to delisting.
> 
> If you hold the stock, my advice is to mark it for disposal and to GET OUT (maybe over a month or two if you're unwilling to sell at the current $1.25).
> 
> I've posted before that if you hold a portfolio of individual stocks, you have to actually monitor and re-analyze them... Bombardier is an example why. When it looks like it's actually going to collapse to zero, you must get out of a stock.


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## james4beach

No comments on this? Fell 14% on Friday, now a penny stock at $0.96

Will it survive or is this the end of the equity?


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## james4beach

Bombardier has been kicked out of the TSX Composite and TSX 60 indexes.

Bombardier booted from TSX Composite as stock languishes - BNN Bloomberg


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## james4beach

For the first time in a while, Bombardier is above its 200 day moving average. From a technical perspective, this is now looking somewhat bullish.

I'm tempted to go long as a pure speculation, part of the "central bank induced rally in everything" trade / gamble.

You might wonder how I can write this after my above comments, so I'll add (1) intense pain and capitulation has already occurred, (2) insane central bank stimulus is pumping up all assets, (3) junk bonds have rallied like mad and borrowing costs have plummeted, even for distressed companies, and (4) I'm viewing it as a gamble, kind of like buying Bitcoin, except this one is actually unpopular

Anyone long?


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## james4beach

I'm long Bombardier, with the reasoning outlined in my previous post.


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## Beaver101

^


> Anyone long?


 ... I'm ex-long after 7 years with this one. Placed my bet elsewhere.


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## Investor87

james4beach said:


> I'm long Bombardier, with the reasoning outlined in my previous post.



Hmmm I made some good money on it a few years back, thank you James for bringing it back on my radar. I'll read on it a bit more and come back with a conclusion.


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## james4beach

Investor87 said:


> Hmmm I made some good money on it a few years back, thank you James for bringing it back on my radar. I'll read on it a bit more and come back with a conclusion.


I'm sticking with my speculative long. I feel neutral about it but I don't have much to lose with my tiny position.

Bombardier's borrowing costs are down significantly and the sector might actually start recovering this year.


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## londoncalling

I know your comment above says it is a speculative play. For many reasons Bombardier has historically been protected by government bailouts so IMO that does limit some risk. I find it interesting that you list it as a potential bankruptcy candidate elsewhere on this forum. I believe you are just outlaying the risk of owning the names below. High risk High Reward. I looked at buying Sheritt years ago but for whatever reasons I did not buy. The thing about looking at so many companies is you miss just as many winners as you do losers. 




james4beach said:


> The ones that come to mind are Bombardier, ShawCor, and Sherritt.
> 
> I think it's already priced into their equity and debt rating, so this isn't exactly news. I hope they pull through.


(6) Bankruptcy Candidates | Canadian Money Forum


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## james4beach

londoncalling said:


> I know your comment above says it is a speculative play. For many reasons Bombardier has historically been protected by government bailouts so IMO that does limit some risk. I find it interesting that you list it as a potential bankruptcy candidate elsewhere on this forum. I believe you are just outlaying the risk of owning the names below. High risk High Reward. I looked at buying Sheritt years ago but for whatever reasons I did not buy. The thing about looking at so many companies is you miss just as many winners as you do losers.


Yes, I do think Bombardier may go bankrupt. Even if the government bails them out, why would the share prices hold up? A proper bailout should wipe out the equity, more or less.


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## james4beach

Bombardier reports earnings tomorrow. Today it rallied 14%... I'm not thrilled to see a stock rally into earnings, but we'll see.

This will be a minimum 1 year holding for me, so at this point, I'm just along for the ride (selling is not an option). In a year, I will evaluate whether to keep holding it.


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## james4beach

Surprised nobody has said a peep about this. Surely people would have been interesting this as a 'recovery' play, post pandemic? Bombardier is both sensitive to airline sector conditions, and financing conditions. Both have been steadily improving.

BBD.B just went above $1. Since my post with the chart above at 0.60, it's now *up 70%*


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> Surprised nobody has said a peep about this. Surely people would have been interesting this as a 'recovery' play, post pandemic? Bombardier is both sensitive to airline sector conditions, and financing conditions. Both have been steadily improving.
> 
> BBD.B just went above $1. Since my post with the chart above at 0.60, it's now *up 70%*


Well BBD is a good bet, if you think that Trudeau will give a pile of handouts to a politically connected Quebec business.
But they've proven to be consistently unable to run the company without those handouts.

I think COVID might be a good cover for another handout or two, but I'm not putting my money on that.


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## james4beach

MrMatt said:


> Well BBD is a good bet, if you think that Trudeau will give a pile of handouts to a politically connected Quebec business.
> But they've proven to be consistently unable to run the company without those handouts.
> 
> I think COVID might be a good cover for another handout or two, but I'm not putting my money on that.


I think that's a bit of a politically cynical view. Bombardier relies on junk debt markets, and those markets are extremely generous right now. To some extent, Bombardier has already been bailed out by the US Federal Reserve.

As far as I can tell, Bombardier's financial condition is rapidly improving (compared to the near-death situation a year ago) thanks to easy availability of corporate credit.

In any case, I still think Bombardier will have very long-term problems, but my time horizon for this trade is roughly 1 year. I am speculating here.


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## Covariance

james4beach said:


> As far as I can tell, Bombardier's financial condition is rapidly improving (compared to the near-death situation in 2020) thanks to easy availability of corporate credit.
> 
> In any case, I still think Bombardier will have very long-term problems, but my time horizon for this trade is roughly 1 year.


I think selling the train business allows management to focus. They used the cash to pay down debt, and now have one straight forward business instead of two unrelated businesses and a collection of former train manufacturers spread around the world. A world class product (Global Express) they can ramp production and scale.

As they improve efficiency, and if they reach CF+ next year as forecast, it will likely rerate higher. I acknowledge the debt load is not insignificant and reaching cash flow positive is a key milestone.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I think that's a bit of a politically cynical view. Bombardier relies on junk debt markets, and those markets are extremely generous right now. To some extent, Bombardier has already been bailed out by the US Federal Reserve.
> 
> As far as I can tell, Bombardier's financial condition is rapidly improving (compared to the near-death situation a year ago) thanks to easy availability of corporate credit.
> 
> In any case, I still think Bombardier will have very long-term problems, but my time horizon for this trade is roughly 1 year. I am speculating here.


Canada has given Bombardier over $4B 








EDC has helped fuel the serial subsidization of Bombardier. The gravy train must end


Diane Francis: This is about bad governance, the exploitation of taxpayers, perpetuation of favouritism and the bruising of Canada’s good name




financialpost.com





The market cap is sitting around $2.5B
We're flushing money down the drain.

But what's a few billion dollars when it gets votes.


yeah, that's politically cynical, but can you put a different spin on it?
We're giving these jokers billions.


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## Investor87

james4beach said:


> Surprised nobody has said a peep about this. Surely people would have been interesting this as a 'recovery' play, post pandemic? Bombardier is both sensitive to airline sector conditions, and financing conditions. Both have been steadily improving.
> 
> BBD.B just went above $1. Since my post with the chart above at 0.60, it's now *up 70%*


I decided against buying it. These are the reasons:


business risk augmented, their activity is only business jets now, very niche
the history or false promises and bad management
pandemic still raging worldwide (hard to believe rich people and corporations will buy private jets in the next year or two)
attractive buying opportunity I guess but just cannot see it go over 1.25$


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## james4beach

Investor87 said:


> business risk augmented, their activity is only business jets now, very niche
> the history or false promises and bad management
> pandemic still raging worldwide (hard to believe rich people and corporations will buy private jets in the next year or two)
> attractive buying opportunity I guess but just cannot see it go over 1.25$


Those are sensible reasons as well


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## james4beach

I dumped my position and got out of Bombardier. I think it was a good speculation, and I significantly outperformed the index over the brief period.

However with the strong performance of Canadian equities, I've ended up way overweight Canadian stocks and I think this is just too speculative a position.


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## Covariance

Still holding preferred shares. Also significantly outperformed in the past 12 months, while paying a dividend. Continue to see improved potential over the next year to 18 monhts as they de lever and improve cash flow. That said, I completely understand your assessment of the common shares.


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## james4beach

Bombardier is finally above $1, so it's officially no longer a penny stock!

I have no position any more.
​


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## Investor87

james4beach said:


> Bombardier is finally above $1, so it's officially no longer a penny stock!
> 
> I have no position any more.
> ​


where do you think it'll end up?


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## james4beach

Investor87 said:


> where do you think it'll end up?


I have no idea at this point


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## MrMatt

Investor87 said:


> where do you think it'll end up?


A shell of it's former self, surviving on handouts.


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## Investor87

MrMatt said:


> A shell of it's former self, surviving on handouts.


OTOH, it could respawn like the Pheonix, since they're focused on one thing, only if they do it right.


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## MrMatt

Investor87 said:


> OTOH, it could respawn like the Pheonix, since they're focused on one thing, only if they do it right.


Yes, but at some point the Canadian taxpayer will get tired of bailing them out.


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## Investor87

MrMatt said:


> Yes, but at some point the Canadian taxpayer will get tired of bailing them out.


I think we're already tired. What I meant was, that with this thorough restructuring and a single line of business to focus on, maybe this time they will do it right. I see it as Bombardier's last survival chance.


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## MrMatt

Investor87 said:


> I think we're already tired. What I meant was, that with this thorough restructuring and a single line of business to focus on, maybe this time they will do it right. I see it as Bombardier's last survival chance.


Yes.
I tend not to believe in turnaround stories.

Unless they have totally new management and leadership, they'll have trouble understanding they aren't what they once were.

I think Blackberry is an example of how to execute a turnaround, throw out old leadership, bring in someone completely new.


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## bgc_fan

MrMatt said:


> Unless they have totally new management and leadership, they'll have trouble understanding they aren't what they once were.
> 
> I think Blackberry is an example of how to execute a turnaround, throw out old leadership, bring in someone completely new.


The other part is to re-align your company. As part of the turnaround they also got out of the phone making business and focused on software, embedded systems, and cybersecurity.

Bombardier doesn't have much to go with as they have been divesting all their divisions and all they have left is their corporate plane division. Not much growth there.


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## Investor87

bgc_fan said:


> The other part is to re-align your company. As part of the turnaround they also got out of the phone making business and focused on software, embedded systems, and cybersecurity.
> 
> Bombardier doesn't have much to go with as they have been divesting all their divisions and all they have left is their corporate plane division. Not much growth there.


That's true, from an economies of scale perspective. However, given the stock hovering around 1$, if they do get it right this time and prove to be a business worth investing in, it's still a bargain to buy it now.


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## bgc_fan

Investor87 said:


> That's true, from an economies of scale perspective. However, given the stock hovering around 1$, if they do get it right this time and prove to be a business worth investing in, it's still a bargain to buy it now.


Being a bargain is kind of subjective. It's a pretty limited marketspace with a high capital requirement for research and development. That's what crippled them with the C series in the first place. It's a shame that Airbus is reaping the rewards after Bombardier did all the hard work, and Bombardier has nothing to show for it.


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## james4beach

This thing is on fire. Basically straight up from 0.30 to currently 1.48. Seems that it went up another 66% after I sold it!


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## Covariance

james4beach said:


> This thing is on fire. Basically straight up from 0.30 to currently 1.48. Seems that it went up another 66% after I sold it!
> 
> View attachment 21905


Sometimes being a contrarian works. Still see it as I did last fall - simpler business with one world class product to scale up. Delever and payoff debt. Improve business and get cash flow positive.


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## james4beach

Unbelievable, this is getting close to $2.

This might get added back to the TSX index.


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## james4beach

I was already out of this position, so I don't really care any more, but ...

I think the rally in BBD.B is done. The stock fell below the 200 day moving average in February and still looks very weak to me. There's also a "death cross" technical pattern which appeared last month.

It's currently $1.38 and I think it will hit $1 before it hits $2.


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