# Ainsworth Lumber (ANS.TO)



## Rob (Apr 25, 2013)

So I have a small position in T.ANS 

Yesterday SP closed at $2.94. After hours, it was announced that a US lumber company, LPX, reached a deal to buy all outstanding shares for $3.76. ANS's largest shareholder, enthusiastically approved.

Today, the SP shot up 33% to close at $3.94.

This $0.18 premium is baffling me. Sooo... does anyone have any idea why the price would shoot up way past the offer price of $3.76? How can there be any more upside? Just trying to think if there is any reason why I would NOT want to sell immediately.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

lucky you. The fact that share price shot above the agreed-upon purchase indicates that the market thinks at least one other buyer will emerge. Market is anticipating a bidding war.

i don't own ainsworth, am far away from ainsworth. You must be a great deal closer to this stock & to the OSB industry in general. Can u think of another company that would want to buy ANS? more than one other company? what do you think they would be prepared to pay?

if u don't have any answers to these questions, do not fret. The media will be all over this story. Keep your eye glued to the news & watch how the rumours & the speculations ebb & flow.

whatever you do, it's probably not a good idea to sell ANS now. It seriously looks like somebody is going to counter-offer higher than LP. Next - if all goes well for you - LP itself will counter-counter with another raise. Sit tight, bidding wars are fun.


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Ainsworth as a company still has room to grow as their margins increase in the forestry sector. For this reason and the previously mentioned potential other bidders I would just hold it.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

flannel it's all over in ainsworth except for the final sale price.

ANS shareholders are going to end up with cash or shares in another company or a combination of the 2. ANS will cease to exist. Soon.

the ANS directors have agreed to sell, the largest shareholder has agreed to sell, the small retail shareholders have no voice & no choice.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I guess it depends if you have a better use for the money. If there is something you are burning to get money into, you probably would be best just selling and moving on. If you're in no rush, and it doesn't matter if you get $3.76 or $3.94, then just wait as you know you're going to get at least $3.76. The sale price was high compared to other OSB takeovers, but it was still just 5.7 times EBITDA, and someone might come in on that if they're feeling optimistic about the industry's chances.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

congrats on the buyout.
i think the higher share price of ANS is because of LPX price. 
LPX price rose 10% today to $17.00 (which is unusual for the purchasing company)
If you take one of the options of the buyout of (ii) 0.235 LP shares: and use today's closing price of LPX of $17.00 x .235 shares = $3.995 plus exchange.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Forestry is undervalued now.
I think WEF announced continuation of their buybacks.
WFT should go shopping for some assets.

It's a tough industry, but I think most are predicting things to pick up.

I don't know much about LPX, but I don't think that's a stock I'd want to hold, I'd tender, or sell out at the >tender price.


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Sorry about my ambiguous comment! What a long day  I was eluding to the company being purchased by a competitor for more. It's not quite over yet, the decision has 1 month to finalize and the securities commissions to go through. I humbly bow out now :hopelessness: 



humble_pie said:


> flannel it's all over in ainsworth except for the final sale price.
> 
> ANS shareholders are going to end up with cash or shares in another company or a combination of the 2. ANS will cease to exist. Soon.
> 
> the ANS directors have agreed to sell, the largest shareholder has agreed to sell, the small retail shareholders have no voice & no choice.


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Actually I'm wondering what you folks think about in regards to other players being bought out? The OSB industry is notorious for timing the market with mill restart and shutdowns, wouldn't the consolidation of a few more help with the volatility of it all? As I see it some forestry players may see a pro in being attached to the OSB markets as well as the dimension lumber side of things.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

humble_pie said:


> flannel it's all over in ainsworth except for the final sale price.
> 
> ANS shareholders are going to end up with cash or shares in another company or a combination of the 2. ANS will cease to exist. Soon.
> 
> the ANS directors have agreed to sell, the largest shareholder has agreed to sell, the small retail shareholders have no voice & no choice.


From a Globe article
"After a court-approved plan of arrangement, at least two-thirds of votes cast by Ainsworth shareholders at a special meeting set for October will be required to help complete the transaction."

Brookfield owns 54%, I'd be very surprised if the deal doesn't go through, more than half the other shareholders would have to vote against it to kill it.
A better deal isn't likely to materialize in just over a month.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

> If you take one of the options of the buyout of (ii) 0.235 LP shares: and use today's closing price of LPX of $17.00 x .235 shares = $3.995 plus exchange.


Therein lies the reason, good observation. Definitely seems like a sell now, unless you'd just like to hold the LPX shares instead.


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## mutzy (Jul 26, 2010)

Interesting that in late June and early July ANS was trading in the $4 dollar range with analyst's predicting
higher profit's and maybe a dividend in the near future. Now I'm not a conspiracy theorist; but really. 
In north western Ont. with the paper mills all but shut down they have access to nearly unlimited fiber 
supply within fifty miles of the pant. Good deal for Brookfield while the individual investors acting on analyst's
Rec. get their money back.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

mutzy said:


> Good deal for Brookfield while the individual investors acting on analyst's
> Rec. get their money back.


which is typical.
I usually find when an analyst's recommends something, he usually made good money on the stock already and is looking for an exit.

ANS only has the small Barwick OSB mill in N.ont. I personally think it would be a good idea to have more mills pop up in N.ont to make use of the small jackpine in the area and bring some jobs back. 
I can't tell by your post if you are for or against LPX buy-in.


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## mutzy (Jul 26, 2010)

I would vote no, for all that's worth. With the US. economy picking up and Europe showing signs of life, I'm
sure ANS would have had significant upside in the next yr. or two.


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