# Was it just me that got smoked in the market today?



## KaeJS

So, I got a little excited this morning when I saw Suncor shoot through the roof. I sold my shares and took a profit.

Then the bad news...

I own both Apple and Citigroup.

Apple dropped by over $7/share (i think over $8 including after hours trading) and Citigroup dropped $0.11/share.

Apple and Citigroup brought down my portfolio significantly, even after the Suncor profit. 

Rough day.


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## Argonaut

If you took a profit on Suncor, you did well. The other losses aren't losses unless you sold at a lower price.

My stocks were down, but gold was up enough to offset that. 0.2% gain overall, looks like same as the TSX.


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## m3s

My USD acct is all RED today as well but I didn't sell anything. Too bad I just bought Unilever yesterday and took a hit on day 1

Suncor eased half my pain anyways, with an overall 1.5% setback


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## HaroldCrump

I took a haircut on TA today after some analyst from RBC downgraded it.
Some over-efficient, pompous, paper-pushing suit 
I still have a healthy gain, but lost a big chunk of the profit.

Major banks down too, esp. BMO - one of my core holdings.
Didn't sell anything, no reason to (yet).
If sell off continues, I'll consider buying some more of my core holdings.


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## Jon_Snow

As long as my basket of index funds is higher in two years than they are today, that's all I care about. I'm trying really hard not to get to excited or depressed about what happens day to day. Mixed results.


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## larry81

take a look at VWO, down 3.10%

i bough more


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## plen

I had a far worse day last Wednesday. Precious Metals/Canadian Equity softened the beating the Global/US/Nasdaq markets took.

Got a hefty reimbursement for medical expenses from Blue Cross a couple days ago, pumped some of that into TD Nasdaq today


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## dogcom

It has been a really good year so far for me except my core gold precious metals fund which is down except for today. I have a lot of cash again as I just sold the stocks that did well in the last month and am waiting for a correction to get some better prices.


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## Belguy

Troubles in the Middle East again (still!) and so stocks are down on the uncertainty except oil and gold are up.

The markets hate uncertainty and so we will just have to wait and see how this plays out. 

A new Islamic government in Egypt would not help!!


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## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> A new Islamic government in Egypt would not help!!


Last night President Mubarak said he was appointing a new government, but no mention of removing himself, so it seems he's not going anywhere anytime soon; he's 82 & 30 years of rule & power was not enough for him?!.

Indeed, if the 'Muslim Brotherhood' movement were to take over in Egypt, they would be worse off & could become the next Iran. It is believed that Mubarak was preparing to give his son the throne [so to speak] and the other possibility is Mr. ElBaradei, who apparently is close to Iran, so who else is there? Whoever it is, will they succeed or be crashed by Mubarak?. Very interesting that it took so many years for this populous uprising, I wonder how much credit can the social media take for the unprecedented demonstrations in the ME region, who will be next?!. 

I quote an Egyptian friend who lives there: "Egypt is not like Tunisia , she is an elephant, she can destroy everything in his way and affect all the Middle east."
*****************

I picked more Ford shares yesterday at -13%.

"Some over-efficient, pompous, paper-pushing suit." - LOL Haroldcrump.


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## tendim

KaeJS said:


> So, I got a little excited this morning when I saw Suncor shoot through the roof. I sold my shares and took a profit.


 Congrats!


KaeJS said:


> Then the bad news...
> 
> I own both Apple and Citigroup.
> 
> Apple dropped by over $7/share (i think over $8 including after hours trading) and Citigroup dropped $0.11/share.
> 
> Apple and Citigroup brought down my portfolio significantly, even after the Suncor profit.


I wouldn't worry too much about it. Until you cash out, these paper "losses" are meaningless. I originally bought Citi when it was in a decent rally in mid-2010, watched it nosedive down to the high $3 range, then bounce back.


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## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> I picked more Ford shares yesterday at -13%.



Me too.

I bought *a lot* and I sort of regret it now. To be honest, I'm a little uneasy. But the stock was up +0.09 in after hours trading, so I'm hoping I can make some profit.

I got in at $16.60... a little on the higher side.


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## KaeJS

tendim said:


> Congrats!
> 
> 
> I wouldn't worry too much about it. Until you cash out, these paper "losses" are meaningless. I originally bought Citi when it was in a decent rally in mid-2010, watched it nosedive down to the high $3 range, then bounce back.


I'm definitely not worried about Apple. Apple will still be making ridiculous profits for years to come, whether Jobs is there or not. Stock price will fly high as the sky, and if they end up giving out that dividend (or a split) it should increase volume.

Citigroup on the other hand has me worried.

Anyone looked at Allana Potash lately? (CVE:AAA)
Huge gains lately, might be something to look into. Its only $1.39 a share or something like that. Jumped 18 cents on Friday if I'm not mistaken.


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## warp

Trouble in the Middle East spooks invetsors!

Wow.....there's something new!!

My $US account saw a lot of red today,,,but the upward move of the US $ cancelled that out....( as money runs to the relative safety of the US dollar.)

In Canadin accounts a I did pretty good actually!

Ive beeen looking at Suncor for months....never bought....looks like I should have.

Like you HAROLD, our TA holdings got hurt a bit.


REMEMBER.......if you are a long term investor.....these daily moves and short term noise should not be taken so seriously.


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## Jungle

Yea agf.b, bmo, TA all took beatings. They're rating TA down to $19 share??

So ya, little red in our stocks. Funny, the tsx comp was up. Even TRP is dropping again. 

I am looking to add some TA, TRP and BMO. So they can drop some more, I will just buy. 

Saw that S&P was down like 1.7%, so I borrowed $1200 from our savings account and bought e-series us index fund. I will get the $1200+ back from my tax refund and replace the money borrowed. This is just reinvesting the tax deduction from my rrsp.


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## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> Yea agf.b, bmo, TA all took beatings. They're rating TA down to $19 share??
> 
> I am looking to add some TA, TRP and BMO. So they can drop some more, I will just buy.


I may grab some TA, too, if it makes it down into the 20's next week.


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## zylon

*CU versus TA*

I own 300 TA and was also thinking of adding.
In December I heard David Baskin say he prefers Canadian Utilities (CU) to TransAlta

I've had CU on my watch list forever, and it always seems to be just a bit too high. One of these days I may bite the bullet and switch TA for CU

Comparison of CU/TA (weekly)


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## Greyhound86

I used to own TA but sold it last February (2010)

At the time there was some talk that their dividend was not really sustainable, electricity prices in Alta were low at that time, their coal plants might need upgrading/conversion and the share price was at the high end of valuation.

That was a year ago so things might have changed since then. I bought some more CPG, BCE, ENB and Telus with the TA proceeds.


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## HaroldCrump

Jungle said:


> I am looking to add some TA, TRP and BMO. So they can drop some more, I will just buy.


All 3 of those are my among core holdings as well.
I'll may buy more BMO if it gets into the early $50s again.
My target for TRP however is a lot lower - I'll consider buying between $30 and $31.
I'll buy more TA at $20 if it gets there.


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## osc

Finally some volatility. Sold some VIX calls though I still hope it will get to at least 25 before dropping.


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## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> Me too.
> 
> I bought *a lot* and I sort of regret it now. To be honest, I'm a little uneasy. But the stock was up +0.09 in after hours trading, so I'm hoping I can make some profit.
> 
> I got in at $16.60... a little on the higher side.


I was considering and still may pull the trigger if it goes down in the next couple of weeks, but most likely the unions will keep me away from this all together.


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## ddkay

KaeJS: I've been looking for some good potash stocks but I can't justify buying POT which is already in the triple digits. Have you looked to see why AAA gained 18 cents suddenly on Friday?


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## KaeJS

Homerhomer said:


> I was considering and still may pull the trigger if it goes down in the next couple of weeks, but most likely the unions will keep me away from this all together.



You still think Ford is going to drop over the next few weeks?

They missed estimates, but they also posted their greatest earnings in 10 years. That should be an accomplishment. Sure, they missed targets, but they're at least on their way to some profit...

*ddkay:*

"Allana Potash Corp (AAA.V) is up more than 1% and has touched a new year high of $1.24 with more than 3.5 million shares traded on continued positive sentiment for the junior potash player after it last week announced drill holes DK-10-07, located in the northner section of Allana's property, intersected two significant zones of potash mineralization including the highest grade intersection to date.

It may also be buoyed by today's strong result and positive outlook from Potash Corp. (POT.TO) on the TSX."

As per Nasdaq.com on January 27, 2011.

I think I'm going to snatch some on monday. _Just be careful if you get some. The opportunity may have already came and went... _


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## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> You still think Ford is going to drop over the next few weeks?
> 
> They missed estimates, but they also posted their greatest earnings in 10 years. That should be an accomplishment. Sure, they missed targets, but they're at least on their way to some profit...
> 
> *ddkay:*
> 
> ... [/I]


Quite often the best time to buy after a huge drop is not the same day, but couple of weeks after, this obviously is not always the case (for example mosaic had great rebound last week right away - although the reasons for a drop were different), but look at the action following drops in cisco, bby, ry and bmo couple of months back, and you will see that patience paid off ;-)


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## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> Me too.
> 
> I bought *a lot* and I sort of regret it now. To be honest, I'm a little uneasy. But the stock was up +0.09 in after hours trading, so I'm hoping I can make some profit.
> 
> I got in at $16.60... a little on the higher side.


Don't feel bad KaeJS, you bought it already and can't go back. Sure, it might go even lower, especially with the situation in the ME region, which might produce more sellers than buyers in the coming weeks, but we don't have a crystal ball for perfect timing. Personally, I thought the drop on Friday was steep enough to buy more & if it goes much lower, then, buying more will average it down. It is a solid & affordable stock for now, so I would not worry too much, it will rebound!

As for Potash, I was bullish on agricultural stocks from a year ago thanks to all the literature I read, which was just too compelling to ignore despite its volatility & so I bought POT and AGU under all my accounts [as much as I could under TFSA] & it paid off big time for me; up over 80% on the former thus far. Junior potash companies have potential, but I don't know much about Allana, love its price though. 

*@Warp:* I bought Suncor a year ago for $34.11 and many times wanted to sell, but held on; price is still reasonable IMO. The deal with France's Total SA, the projected growth for the next decade or two + other factors makes it a good long term stock IMO. 

*@Jungle:* I'm with you on TRP and BMO.

Wonder what kind of market will be next week.


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## humble_pie

why did allana jump 18 pennies on friday ...

this is a grass-roots exploration company only. Barely commenced drilling in ethiopia. Existing geological studies of property are more than 40 years old. Argentine property is merely an exploration claim.

co does have capable executives & directors w senior experience in potash mining. Potash mines are slow & expensive to build. Any mine in ethiopia would be at least 4-5 years out. No production before 2014, 2015. Maybe never.

meanwhile, as always, there is enormous speculative interest in canadian mining exploration juniors. There is also, always, ugly market manipulation. It's normal for any one of these juniors to soar or crash by 10-20% in any given week, on nothing more than a single drilling result. Whatever.

on another thread someone is posting to never buy on news. He says to wait a while. I agree. Allana will sag between drill announcements. Search for the timing of these, if you would. Also: ever since bre-x, gold cores have to be sent to independent outside labs for verification, but i don't believe this requirement applies to uranium cores or any other metal. All the more chances for an exploration driller to "time" its public announcements.

(signed)
not-a-kneejerk-reactor


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## Homerhomer

HaroldCrump said:


> All 3 of those are my among core holdings as well.
> I'll may buy more BMO if it gets into the early $50s again.
> My target for TRP however is a lot lower - I'll consider buying between $30 and $31.
> I'll buy more TA at $20 if it gets there.


I would like to ask what is attactive in TA even at $20?

Yes it has a nice dividend yield but:

1) they rarely raise dividends
2) stock has done nothing in many years
3) there is no earnings growth, and there may be a while before we see a significant one.
4) payout ratios are extremely high often exceeding the earnings, strong possibility of dividend cut
5) PE is almost 20, grossly overvalued imo

Trying to find any positives in this stock is not that easy, yet I keep hearing this is a core holding in many portfolios.

Thanks.


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## HaroldCrump

Homerhomer said:


> I would like to ask what is attactive in TA even at $20?


In my case: a slight averaging down and the yield, which'd be almost 6% at that price.



> 1) they rarely raise dividends


3 dividend raises in the last 4 years - what more do you want? 



> 2) stock has done nothing in many years


I wouldn't say that.
It has been quite volatile for an electricity company.
It has ranged from $38+ to $18.
If you market timed, that's a lot of profit to be made from the swings.
I have bought and held, so haven't profited from the swings but have profited from the gains and the dividends.



> 3) there is no earnings growth, and there may be a while before we see a significant one.


True, they've had very good years and poor years but overall there hasn't been a "significant" earnings growth if you compare point-to-point from 10 years ago.
So yes it isn't exactly a growth stock.
But it's ROE for 5 years has been 7.6%
Source: http://ca.moneycentral.msn.com/inve...mpare.asp?Page=InvestmentReturns&Symbol=CA:TA



> 4) payout ratios are extremely high often exceeding the earnings, strong possibility of dividend cut
> 5) PE is almost 20, grossly overvalued imo


I agree on both counts.
Although their cash flows supports the high payouts, much like several other companies.
PE is high, but not outrageously so.


> Trying to find any positives in this stock is not that easy, yet I keep hearing this is a core holding in many portfolios.


Depends on what your own objectives for holding this stock are.
Don't bet the farm on this obviously.
But if it is part of a diversified portfolio of Canadian dividend stocks, I think this has a place.

As we watch this morning, the stock is still getting punished because of that downgrade.
Regardless of the merits of that RBC dude's analysis, the annoucement itself is ensuring that the stock hits his price target


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## Jungle

I want to add TA, do you think it will go down for a couple more days?


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## HaroldCrump

Jungle said:


> I want to add TA, do you think it will go down for a couple more days?


Yes, so far the haircut has been > $1 of the stock price.
The earnings are not until 2/25.
If you want to get it, wait until it is at least $20 - $20.10.
It may not get there of course (I don't have a crystal ball), so it depends on how badly you want it


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## Toronto.gal

If you want to buy it now & it continues to sink, you can always buy more and average the price down, then, when it bounces back & you wish to sell, you'll have a greater profit as you would have more shares. I obviously do this only with stocks I believe in long term & can afford. 

I don't own TA, so I can't tell you if I believe in it or not.


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## Homerhomer

HaroldCrump said:


> 3 dividend raises in the last 4 years - what more do you want?
> 
> :


Unless both globeinvestor and yahoo finance are incorrect, they had 2 dividends increases (in 08 and 09), and no increases since 1998. Pretty poor record in my books.


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## HaroldCrump

Homerhomer said:


> Unless both globeinvestor and yahoo finance are incorrect, they had 2 dividends increases (in 08 and 09)


Yes, you are right - my apologies - 2 increases in 5 years.
If you don't mind, what do you hold in the utilities sector, if you have any exposure?


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## Homerhomer

HaroldCrump said:


> Yes, you are right - my apologies - 2 increases in 5 years.
> If you don't mind, what do you hold in the utilities sector, if you have any exposure?


No need to apologise Harold (although it's 2 increases in 12 years), I am honestly asking about TA thinking that perhaps there is more to the story than the numbers tell on the surface.

As for my exposure in the utilities sector it's NIL, I thought I could be smarter than the market but obviously timing is not my forte, and in the canadian utilities sector the companies I am most interested in getting back into are enbridge, fortis, and to a lesser extend transcanada, have looked closely at TA but find it least compelling. I will be patient, if they don't reach the prices I am comfortable paying for them, I will just stay away and hopefully make money in other sectors.


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## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> Don't feel bad KaeJS, you bought it already and can't go back. It is a solid & affordable stock for now, so I would not worry too much, it will rebound!


Anyone see the price of Ford after that last news report?

I'm down $499.95 as of right now, with no capital to average down. Not that I'm sure I would even want to average down. 

Looks like I won't be seeing my money for a while. 

Toronto.gal, did you buy any?


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## HaroldCrump

Homerhomer said:


> As for my exposure in the utilities sector it's NIL, I thought I could be smarter than the market but obviously timing is not my forte, and in the canadian utilities sector the companies I am most interested in getting back into are enbridge, fortis, and to a lesser extend transcanada, have looked closely at TA but find it least compelling. I will be patient, if they don't reach the prices I am comfortable paying for them, I will just stay away and hopefully make money in other sectors.


I did a quick and dirty comparison of the companies you mentioned based on the things we talked about like div%, dividend increases, stock price movement, etc. for the past 5 years.

Based on these factors, TA is the least attractive, followed by TRP.
FTS and ENB appear to be most attractive.

Note that price comparisons are point-to-point from Jan 2006 to Jan 2011.
In reality, you could have gotten in at any point in between or many points in between so it can't be claimed that your total return would have been exactly the same as this.
Also, these are total returns and not annualized.










So, in retrospect, it seems that TA has been the worst choice during the last 5 years and FTS or ENB would have been the best.

Future remains to be seen.

TA appears to be off its lows and seems to get some support around $20.60, so hopefully the worst is over.
The 4th quarter earnings on 2/25 is another story, though...


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## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> Anyone see the price of Ford after that last news report?
> 
> I'm down $499.95 as of right now, with no capital to average down. Not that I'm sure I would even want to average down.
> 
> Looks like I won't be seeing my money for a while.
> 
> Toronto.gal, did you buy any?


Yes, I bought last week at $16.20; I knew it could go lower, but -13% drop in a single day was a good enough sale for me for an attractive stock, it's just not possible to wait for the lowest possible price, unless you have a crystal ball.

Did you notice that in early trading this morning, it went higher than what you bought it for? Though not enough to have sold at a profit, you could have at least gotten back your money as you were feeling so uneasy. Anyway, have a little patience and don't worry so much.

The company made over 6 billion last year, and granted that it still has much debt to pay off, compare that to profits of just 2 billion+ in 2009. This year the company is releasing new and popular models in Asia and other big markets, so it should do well for those patient enough.


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## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> Did you notice that in early trading this morning, it went higher than what you bought it for? Though not enough to have sold at a profit, you could have at least gotten back your money as you were feeling so uneasy. Anyway, have a little patience and don't worry so much.


I did notice that it made it up to 16.64.

Unfortunately, I can't check my phone too often at work to get the quotes, only about every 2 hours. Had I actually seen the "last price" around $16.60, i may have sold 

16.20 is a nice price to get in at. You did well.

But think of those people that got in around 15.50 today. YOWZA!


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## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> But think of those people that got in around 15.50 today. YOWZA!


I have been buying/accumulating since late 2009, so I actually got some for under $10, but had I started buying stocks just 1/2 year earlier, I could have bought them for just over $1. 

I read your post that you sold UUU, why? Did you see it today, it reached a 52 week high! 

*@HaroldCrump:* nice comparison and definitely ENB the better growth stock. Bought ENB & TRP around the same time & a year later, up 45% on ENB compared to 7% for TRP.


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## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> I read your post that you sold UUU, why? Did you see it today, it reached a 52 week high! .


Unfortunately I did see it. +0.55 or something today?

I also saw Suncor.

I sold UUU.TO because I was borrowing (excessively) on margin. I figured I could pick it up again later. Looks like I made a bit of a mistake  I was thinking more about the interest accruing on all the money I was borrowing.

I wish I could have kept Suncor, too.
I was in and out of Suncor in 2010. Love that company to death. I had Suncor when it was $32! 

I have quite a substantial holding in Citigroup that I don't want to get rid of, either. I'm hoping to ride Citigroup straight to 2012 (providing all goes well).

I did transfer $500 on the weekend into my stock account. That should get me $1500 if I use margin. With the little bit of cash left in my account, maybe I can grab 300 UUU.TO. Not much, but its all I can afford


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## HaroldCrump

I spent some more time and added EMA and CU to the comparison.
Also, calculated total annualized returns including dividends for the 5 year period, based on the purchase of 1 share of each
It's not completely kosher since the initial investment amount is different (price of 1 share on 1/1/2006), but I think the picture is fairly clear.
Again, TA was the worst performer by quite a margin.
ENB and EMA are clearly the leaders and FTS is the runner-up.










Now so much for history...the question is what is the prognosis moving forward.
Is TA going to lag the rest among its industry or is there possibility for recovery.


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## Argonaut

Sometimes you have to pay up for quality. No sense in buying a loser if there is no catalyst to drive it forward. Having a current dividend yield that is more than its annualized return sets up warning flags for me.


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## Greyhound86

Harold: thanks for sharing your work!


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## Jon_Snow

Just got home from work, and despite my better judgement looked into the stock market numbers for today, expecting a continued bloodletting from the Egypt crisis... only to find that the markets (US and Canada) were up almost a percent... there is no logic to the stock market that I can see.


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## Homerhomer

Thanks for sharing Harold, I am sure many of us will find your findings beneficial.

I forgot that I had analized Emera as well, but from my point of view found FTS and ENB more appealing.

When investigating dividend stocks I look at dividend growth, dividend yield, create dividend model yield and price, payout ratios, earnings growth, PE, PEG, PSR, PB and GF (gut feeling ;-), and it seems that TA is quite overpriced in comparison to it's piers based on the performance.

I like Emera less than ENB and FTS because of the slower dividend growth and quite high payout ratios.

I like your schedules for ease of comparison, I have each company on different worksheet, may have to tweak it and create something that will allow me to compare the companies easier, appreciate the inspiration ;-)


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## zylon

*Canadian National - CNR*

Nice work HC 

CNR is one of those companies that flys under the radar most of the time, unless there's bad news. The dividend yield is low (1.9% at current price of $67.89) and so I've never considered buying it for income.

I plugged CNR into my *Globe* "comparisons" portfolio and see that a purchase of *$5,000* Jan 2, 2001 would now be worth $23,682 and the dividend growth was quite acceptable.



Code:


 year    dividend
  2001   $ 91
  2002    100
  2003    116
  2004    136
  2005    174
  2006    227
  2007    293
  2008    321
  2009    352
  2010    377        data from GlobeInvestor.com


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## Argonaut

zylon said:


> CNR is one of those companies that flys under the radar most of the time, unless there's bad news. The dividend yield is low (1.9% at current price of $67.89) and so I've never considered buying it for income.


CN Rail is one of my favourite stocks. The yield is not important when you purchase it. They raise the dividend every year, and the price appreciates nicely as well. This is one of those stocks that you hold for your entire life, and by then the yield on initial cost will be very large. Like it better than defensive names like P&G, JNJ, and others.

The rails will keep on going; Atlas Shrugged, etc.


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## Jungle

I don't really know the difference between CP and CN rail, but would it be smart to own both? 

They have been doing well lately, to buy in now they seem kinda pricey no?


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## Oldroe

Looking at selling my suncor. Very low volume today.


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## humble_pie

re the rails i agree w argonaut, there are certain stocks that one holds for the rest of one's life. Since they tend to be giants that lumber along, like railroads, big energy & banks, nearly always trading within a band, i always take their current returns from dividends up a notch by selling OTM options at the extremities of the bands.

CN rail is actually now a US railroad to all intents & purposes. It's one of the top 2 US rails with respect to rail mileage & among the top 2 or 3 in terms of annual freight. If you look at a map you'll see the CN rail lines crossing the US east to west in the north, and also bisecting the country north to south, in a T-shape, with additional lines from Chicago to ports along the gulf of mexico. They are embedded in america's heartland.

CP rail doesn't have the powerful US position that CN enjoys, so the standard palaver from analysts will usually recite that CP is more exposed to the vagaries of the canadian economy and to the vagaries of export to asia. Canadian coal & ag products being transported to vancouver for onward shipment to china are a large part of CP's business, for example.

some enviro democrats were hoping when obama was first elected that he'd enact legislation forcing more freight onto rail lines instead of carbon-emitting trucks. This hasn't happened, it seems obama moved towards the political centre instead.


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## m3s

I was kind of hoping this would cause a mini crash so I can buy, but a day later everything is higher than before



Oldroe said:


> Looking at selling my suncor. Very low volume today.


Why? I kind of want to take the profits as well after seeing it red for so long, but I knew oil had to pick up eventually. If you study electric cars you see there's no way they'll replace combustion engines anytime soon unless we all switch to public transportation. Ethanol is not much good above 10% and we don't have the fields etc. Demand for personal cars is going way up in other parts of the world..


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## HaroldCrump

So thanks to this big bull market underway right now, I managed to exit my TA position for a healthy 15.96% annualized return, including dividends.
Not bad for a few months of buy-and-hold 

@ Jungle - It appears that the brunt of the impact of the analyst downgrade is now behind us.
4th quarter earnings on 2/25 will be another story, and I will be watching from the sidelines.

I hope you didn't get in yesterday or this morning.
I won't get in unless this drops back to $20, where I had bought last time.
And only after the 2/25 earnings report.


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## Argonaut

Anyone else getting quite bearish? The first of the month is often a bellwether for the rest of the month, but it's hard to see how this rally can continue indefinitely. Most new income I get in the near future will be parked in cash, because I think we'll see some better prices in the spring or summer. Historically, February is the second worst month next to September for the markets. Of course, September 2010 was great though.


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## Oldroe

I will be looking for a up spike in price with no volume and will sell suncor for nice profit.


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## Jungle

HaroldCrump said:


> So thanks to this big bull market underway right now, I managed to exit my TA position for a healthy 15.96% annualized return, including dividends.
> Not bad for a few months of buy-and-hold
> 
> @ Jungle - It appears that the brunt of the impact of the analyst downgrade is now behind us.
> 4th quarter earnings on 2/25 will be another story, and I will be watching from the sidelines.
> 
> I hope you didn't get in yesterday or this morning.
> I won't get in unless this drops back to $20, where I had bought last time.
> And only after the 2/25 earnings report.


I didn't buy additional, I was waiting for it to go down some more. But 16% return is great! I bought back in July and use the dividend to pay down our mortgage.


----------



## davext

What a ridiculous swing back to the upside today. It was one of those days that you just want over and over again.


----------



## KaeJS

Oldroe said:


> Looking at selling my suncor. Very low volume today.


I hope you didn't sell your Suncor after that huge earnings they posted, plus the possibility of a dividend increase this year. 

Good luck!

I'm getting killed in the market again today.

Every stock that is on my watchlist is green.
Every stock that I actually own (besides UNG) is red.

Edit: Actually, my UUU.TO _just_ turned green. I am happy now.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I bought SU a year ago at just over $34 and my only regret is not having accumulated during that time as the stock hardly moved for quite a long time and it even dropped below $30. 

By all accounts, this stock could reach $50 by year-end or much sooner IMO, so I'm not letting this energy giant go, not for a long time considering the fact that oil should continue to rise + working together with the French should improve profits.

KaeJS: hope your week improves!


----------



## Oldroe

I bought SU from oct. 08 to March 09 and had my petro can stock rolled in for a 28% premium my sell was 41.

And that means market timing, I'm happy to hold and happy to sell. When the volume goes away with a price increase I will sell. The profits will go to good div. stocks.

Then start over for the 4th time.


----------



## MikeT

Ok, enough being a gold bear. I'm going to add back a gold position shortly if we get another bit of a drop.

Goldcorp? Kinross? Or Barrick? 

I'm leaning towards goldcorp.


----------



## zylon

*Zjg*

Goldcorp - too much Cdn dollar risk
Kinross - Russians gonna take the gold
Barrick - just right

only kidding 

How about ZJG? $21.28


----------



## Homerhomer

MikeT said:


> Ok, enough being a gold bear. I'm going to add back a gold position shortly if we get another bit of a drop.
> 
> Goldcorp? Kinross? Or Barrick?
> 
> I'm leaning towards goldcorp.


I picked up goldcorp few days ago, 20% drop was good enough for me.

I have purchase order of zjg at about 10% below market price (as of couple of days ago), if it bites I will be happy, if it doesn't it will be all right as well.


----------



## MikeT

ZJG

ETF is definitely the way to play the junior golds. 0.55% mer seems worth the price. 

My only problem is that this is a different play. This gives rewards based on both gold price appreciation AND on successful exploration/mining. I care more about the former than the latter.

You ever use the leveraged gold etf's? Maybe HBU?


----------



## zylon

*Horizons*



MikeT said:


> You ever use the leveraged gold etf's? Maybe HBU?


Have never tried HBU but have used other Horizons products with mixed results.

They're okay if you can get in at the beginning of a trend, and the trend is fairly "straight line".

But if price action is jig saw / sideways, the daily rebalancing of the Horizons funds will play havoc on expected returns.


----------



## Oldroe

I see my SU went below my 41 sell price but the volume is good so no worry's.

I had a front row seat watching a guy lose 100k shorting stocks. His prime reason to buy was large price increase with decrease in volume. That soon became my sell method for stocks like su.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Maybe you should wait until 2021. 

http://opinion.financialpost.com/20...ormer-fidelity-fund-manager-says-in-new-book/


----------



## zylon

Oldroe said:


> I had a front row seat watching a guy lose 100k shorting stocks. His prime reason to buy was large price increase with decrease in volume. That soon became my sell method for stocks like su.


Let's see if I understand this:

The guy was losing money by covering shorts based on large increase / less volume.

So now you sell based on large increase / less volume.

Do I have that right?


----------



## Oldroe

You almost have it.


----------



## KaeJS

UUU.TO is taking a big hit lately.

But the price/demand of Uranium is still rising.



I'm not sure if I should be buying more at this point, or just wait it out.

UxC will likely post an ever higher spot price of uranium on monday...


----------



## m3s

Oldroe said:


> I had a front row seat watching a guy lose 100k shorting stocks. His prime reason to buy was large price increase with decrease in volume. That soon became my sell method for stocks like su.



Isn't shorting and selling effectively the same thing? Wouldn't you just miss out on $100k profit


----------



## Belguy

When does investing turn into speculating????

I feel that investors are in it for the long haul while speculators are constantly jumping in and out of the market while trying to outsmart the market forces.

Do you day traders out there think of yourselves as investors or as speculators?

"Through today's technological advances, new information is readily and instantly available to everyone and becomes almost instantly reflected in securities prices. Markets work because no single investor can reliably profit at the expense of other investors."

"A properly functioning market may get prices wrong for a short time, but it does so randomly and unpredictably such that no investor can systematically outperform other investors, or the market as a whole."

---'The Investment Answer' by Daniel Goldie and Gordon Murray

That is why 'The Investment Answer' is to invest long term in the broad market indices.

Anything else is really just speculating which is much like gambling.

To each his or her own!!!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy, 

Sure. Speculating is speculating.

But you have to admit that there are times (not many) when you 99.9% know that the value of a stock is going to increase over a short period of time.

You should invest primarily for the long run, but I think its good to use some of your money for "speculating".

If you make money - good. Put it towards your long term investments


----------



## Oldroe

You would need to back up and read all my posts. 

This guy was very well educated and should never touched investing. I had no interest in shorting.

He would look at the most active stocks everyday and bet on any stock that rose in price and had weak volume. He also was talking to another engineer from another plant that was very successful at shorting.

So slowly I got him to look at press releases and sum summary financial just really basic stuff, tried to get him to back off the market as it was super bullish at the time. I ran into him the day I retired and he had lost 100k.

So my stock SU from $30 to my sell 41 + my petro share were rolled into at 1.28 premium and a small div. 1%.

If the market corrected 50% tomorrow I would buy buy buy.

And I will sell the 1st time I see these conditions large increased in price and obvious weak volume. I would exclude US holidays. 

I in the perfect position with su this will be my 4th time 18 years taking profits from su.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> When does investing turn into speculating????
> 
> Do you day traders out there think of yourselves as investors or as speculators?


I am an 'Intelligent Investor' of course. 

You seem to label all non long-term investors speculators & gamblers, but this isn't fair IMO because there are many types of investor behaviour out there in terms of experience, knowledge, momentum, sophistication, risk tolerance, contrarian/go with the news/flow type, etc., etc.

I call myself a conservative investor as I make mostly low & medium risk *long term investments,* but also some higher risk day/swing trading, why not when this volatile market has given many opportunities to take short-term profit? Nothing wrong with it, but both type of investments, low & high risk, I do only after much research & fundamental analysis. 

To me, speculating = gambling & taking unsatisfactory risks, but sure, no doubt 'some' do just that and lose their shirts/pants in the process & entirely their business, but personally & many other traders out there, don't gamble, rather, we make educated decisions, so I don't call this gambling. 

Moreover, whether is with a long term stock such as TRP or a more volatile, short term biotech stock, I would not trade any shares without proper risk management and that involves knowing exactly how much I am willing to lose as well as expect to make & *never going beyond my risk tolerance.* 

At the moment I concentrate more on becoming a better trader than a richer one & by the way, I have always sold at a profit, so I don't have any losses thus far to share with you. Also, there are many shares that I have purchased with pure profit money and if these were to go bankrupt [but they haven't], I would not consider them losses.

But at the end of the day, in absence of a crystal ball, anyone who commits capital is speculating and that includes you!


----------



## warp

KaeJS said:


> Belguy,
> 
> Sure. Speculating is speculating.
> 
> But you have to admit that
> You should invest primarily for the long run, but I think its good to use some of your money for "speculating".
> 
> If you make money - good. Put it towards your long term investments


I would be VERY interested in exactly what stocks you have found, now or in the past that pass this test: 

"there are times (not many) when you 99.9% know that the value of a stock is going to increase over a short period of time.", as you put it.

Please name ANY stocks that fit or have fit that criteria, in your experience.

If you have one at this present time...please do share!


----------



## OptsyEagle

A long term investor is just someone who didn't make his/her money in the short term.


----------



## Jungle

This thread is so off topic, it might almost cover everything under finance if we keep it going..


I'm with Bellguy in that buying stocks and "hoping" they go up shortly after to sell for quick cash is pure speculation. 

The markets have been going up up up and that's why it's easier to make money right now with speculation.


----------



## Jungle

OptsyEagle said:


> A long term investor is just someone who didn't make his/her money in the short term.


And long term investing has a better chance at building wealth. Otherwise everyone would be rich if we could all pick 10 fold stocks and sell overnight.


----------



## olivaw

I hope the people who buy and sell for short term gain also keep track of their internal rate of return (IRR) and compare their term performance to an indexed buy and hold strategy. As someone who has occasionally given in to the temptation to trade, my opinion is that trading success is often illusory.


----------



## osc

Buying stocks hoping to gain from capital gains or dividends is speculation. Short term or long term speculation. 

Creating a business to produce and sell stuff is investing. Unfortunately real investing is very hard these days because we have a few monopolies controlling most businesses (and the governments).


----------



## KaeJS

warp said:


> I would be VERY interested in exactly what stocks you have found, now or in the past that pass this test:
> 
> "there are times (not many) when you 99.9% know that the value of a stock is going to increase over a short period of time.", as you put it.
> 
> Please name ANY stocks that fit or have fit that criteria, in your experience.
> 
> If you have one at this present time...please do share!



Canadian Banks. TD, RY, BMO, BNS, etc.

Listen to 680 news in the morning. Watch BNN.
Check the U.S. Pre-Market trading.

If the news is good and the US has a positive pre-market for their Canadian Banking Friends, it is unlikely that the stock will drop on the TSX.

Buy the stock at 9:30 am. Sell it by noon and dont be greedy cause if bad economic news comes out, your bank stock will most likely go down with it.

And of course, this doesn't work every time. It's not fool proof. But its a pretty simple way of making some money. And obviously, it can't be done everyday. For example, RY and TD are both (in my opinion) overbought right now. There's no way I would touch TD at close to $79. Forget it. It may end up turning into a longer investment if you grab it at $79. (Not that it would be a bad one, actually.)

This is my favourite way to make short term gains, but it is a safer approach. You aren't going to be making 25% or anything ridiculous on a bank stock. But its safer. And if you're going to risk $24,000 to buy 300 TD Shares, well, hell, that's a lot of money in my books. I rather make a little less and be safer.

$24k is an assload of money. thats 1/3 of an Audi IS5


----------



## warp

My friend, your logic,,and your system, to me, just seems naive, and not to be rude, but just plain silly.

Buying a stock,,then selling by noon, because of what you saw on BNN or heard on 680, is a recipe for disaster.

RY is overbought?
I just bought 700 shares a few weeks ago, and am doing quite nicely..not even adding in the nice div coming in a few weeks.
Of course I didnt buy RY to "sell it by noon"
In fact I will prob never sell it.

By the way, $24K IS an assload of money, as you say, but in investing terms, over your life, its not much at all. If you are trading as often as you say, commissions will eat that up pretty quickly too.

Youd be better off to buy a few low cost ETf's, or better yet, a few good solid dividend stocks, and trade less.
And keep some on the side for emergencies.


It takes some people many years to learn these lessons.....you would be wise to learn them from posters here.

I have known many friends and associates who considered themselves "traders", get sent to the poorhouse in a big hurry.

The capital markets are a VERY expensive place to get an education.

Just my opinion.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Also, you will have to trade a lot of shares to make the move worthwhile.
The big banks usually move only by a few cents on any given day, even on days the TSX experiences triple digit gains or losses.
I follow BMO and BNS and (let's use BMO as an example), this past week TSX had triple digit gains.
BMO has moved up from $57.90 to $58.40.
That is 50c, assuming you market timed to perfection and managed to pick up the lowest and highest points on each day - very hard/impossible to do in real-time.
That is 0.85% gain per share.
Let's also assume you pay $9.99 per trade, so approx. $20 for the move.
If you traded 500 shares, you would make $230 for an investment of almost $29,000 (again, approx. 0.80%).

Now, the risk is that the market can move against you in the meantime.
You could be "stuck" with your position for several days or weeks.
It was only a few weeks ago that BMO was trading consistently above $60.
If you had bought on one of those days, you would still be stuck.

I agree that if you can do this consistently, it will be profitable over the course of a year.


----------



## humble_pie

it's the video arcade school of investing.

bang !!

pacman.

shorten the time frame, add algebra & it's algorithmic trading.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I just bought 400 shares of RY in December at $51.50 and still think its a good buy now at $54.91. Where do you come up with the "overbought" analysis?


----------



## financeguru

KaeJS

I ventured to look at your spreadsheet and woah! your approach seems a little naive. Your YTD return is 1.96%, S&P500 YTD is currently 3.9%, TSX 3%(without dividends). Day trading blue chips like Banks isn't going to get you anywhere. If there is a decent correction, you will be frozen in your positions or be forced to sell at losses and no capital to deploy when the best opportunities present themselves. You say you are trading on margin, in which case, 1.96% looks even worse.

With the equity you have, ($7000 or $21K?) i'd suggest you buy either an index fund (e.g. XIU YTD is 3%) or 3 maybe 4 solid well researched companies and hang on tight.


----------



## KaeJS

Ihatetaxes said:


> I just bought 400 shares of RY in December at $51.50 and still think its a good buy now at $54.91. Where do you come up with the "overbought" analysis?


What I meant by this was that for short-term trades, I believe RY is overbought.

In the longer term, of course $54 is not overbought as the stock was over $60 not long ago (if I'm not mistaken). I bought at $51.44 but I ended up selling somewhere around the $54.17ish mark, I believe.

In my previous post I indicated that I would not buy TD at $79 for the short term, but it would be good for the longer term.

And yes, I am still young and have lots to learn, so I appreciate the criticism and suggestions.

I need to learn to have* patience*, as I frequently jump from stock to stock. Which, as someone mentioned before adds up in commissions.


----------



## Square Root

Any simple rule for trading equities may work for a while but in the end you will be toast. Banks are great investments but over a reasonable period of time. The dividends are a big part of it and you won't get many of these day trading. I've made a lot of money on my bank shares, but I've owned them for many years. It is true that there is sometimes significant news released overnight (earnings for instance) that may effect certain stocks at the opening. But this could go either way.


----------



## Square Root

osc said:


> Buying stocks hoping to gain from capital gains or dividends is speculation. Short term or long term speculation.
> 
> Creating a business to produce and sell stuff is investing. Unfortunately real investing is very hard these days because we have a few monopolies controlling most businesses (and the governments).


What I get from your post is that the word "speculation" has become meaningless. It will be used to describe something you want to criticise. Much like the word "bailout". Arguments can often by won by using a word or phrase with a negative connotation but is very difficult or impossible to clearly define.


----------



## humble_pie

the discount brokers see these clients by the hundreds of thousands. They know that the majority will flame out & disappear.

one rep told me he was so disheartened by all the self-destructive energy that he asked for a transfer either up or out. He'd come to the discount broker side from the bank side, he was a valued employee, so they promptly transferred him up to the elite trader group. Now he's happy.


----------



## Square Root

humble_pie said:


> the discount brokers see these clients by the hundreds of thousands. They know that the majority will flame out & disappear.
> 
> one rep told me he was so disheartened by all the self-destructive energy that he asked for a transfer either up or out. He'd come to the discount broker side from the bank side, he was a valued employee, so they promptly transferred him up to the elite trader group. Now he's happy.


I think you are right. I have heard of many "systems" . They work for a while then a few bad trades and they are wiped out. Never to be heard from again. I hope they don't give up their day jobs.


----------



## humble_pie

as square root says, " banks are great investments but over a reasonable period of time. The dividends are a big part of it ..."

the longest buy-and-hold i ever heard of was a german family that has quietly held its wealth since the 13th century. More than 700 years. The first female CFA in montreal used to tell this family's story. Apparently they always invest by 7s. A seventh real estate, a seventh stocks, a seventh cash, a seventh gold, and on through bonds, jewels, & art. Then they hold.

the longest buy-and-hold i ever knew personally was my great-grandfather who left a few bank stocks in the form of beautifully-engraved and tightly-curled certificates. Now all the 5th generation cuzzins & sibs own the descendents of these certificates.

we have a few scraps of paper torn out of tiny notebooks by the venerable ancestor. In spidery ink, he'd scribble down that on the 21st day of october 1919 he had given 17 dollars to the manager of his local bank, who after several weeks delivered to him, the great-grandfather, a certificate for three (3) shares of the Bank of Montreal. On one suspenders-snapping day in 1923, the venerable was able to hand over a blockbuster sum of 38 dollars, in return for which he received, in due course, 17 shares of Imperial Tobacco.

it's all enough to make belguy weep from pure joy.


----------



## Belguy

There are serious, long term investors out there and then there are the day trading speculators.

Guess who does better long term!!

It seems that some people are unable to learn from the experiences of others and have to learn from their own mistakes.

That's too bad!!


----------



## Mockingbird

Let me ask you this. Do serious (professional) daytraders actually trade through the bank's discount brokerage? 

MB


----------



## Belguy

Professional traders, such as those who work for the large investment firms, have the benefit an ivy league education in economics, many fancy designations, the assistance of large research staffs and banks of computers etc.

And still, most of them fail to beat the indexes over the long term.

And so, what chance does the little guy have?

Mr. Gordon Murray just co-authored 'The Investment Answer' prior to his untimely death. He spent over 25 years working on Wall Street, primarily at Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Credit Suisse First Boston, in a variety of management roles. He worked along side of some of the largest and most sophisticated investors in the world. He also worked as a consultant with Dimensional Fund Advisors, an investment management firm known for bringing academic research to the world of investing. He served on the board of the Hillsborough Schools Foundation where he founded the Scholar's Circle. At the time of his death from a brain tumour, he was Vice-Chair of the U.C. Berkeley Parents' Fund and Advisory Board where he received the Trustees Citation Award in 2009. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill with an A.B. in Political Science and received an M.B.A. from Columbia University.

And so, what is 'The Investment Answer' that his life's experiences have led him to conclude?

In his own words, "I believe the most effective way to capture your share from your investments is to deploy your capital throughout the public fixed income and equity markets in a broadly diversified manner designed to capture a global capital markets rate of return. With the proper time horizon and discipline, you can reach your financial goals and outperform most investors with less risk."

Further, he states that you should "control your costs, diversify properly, establish the right asset allocation, and maintain the discipline to stay the course."

Stay away from other more dubious investment schemes which are really speculating instead of investing.

You will know that you have the better way. You have 'The Answer'.

Source: 'The Investment Answer' by Daniel C. Goldie, CFA, CFP and Gordon S. Murray.


----------



## Jungle

Thanks for that Belguy, very well written.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I believe most people here are not talking about full-time day trading & sure, that job is definitely for professionals with not only analytical software, up to the second information, cash reserve, etc., but also stomach & exceptional skills. 

But I reiterate, there is nothing wrong with occasional short-term trading for those that have the skills/knowledge/patience to do so. I have seen stocks I purchased rise & go below the price I bought it for many, many times, why not trade such a zigzag stock if one's heart so desires?! [I'm not talking about bank stocks here].

The majority of my stocks are for keeps [unless there is compelling reason to sell] & currently have only 3 with *unrealized* losses: ECA, JNJ & MFC & some with huge unrealized gains as well. Most of the stocks in this category I drip through dividends as well as use the DCA technique through OCP.

The balance is for trading short term because I don't necessarily want to keep those stocks long term given their volatility [mostly biotech/foreign banks/mining]. I always wait to sell at a profit, most times it takes days or even weeks to realize a profit, so patience is a must; seldom have I been able to sell same day.

I don't get 'smoked' in the market like those with no patience do [I'm not talking about you KaeJS].  Like Harold or Humble said, for Canadian bank-trading, one needs numbers and given the high share price, lots of cash is needed, so I go for shares I can buy in high numbers without tying up large amounts of capital. A recent example is GCE, I bought a few hundred for $10 and a week later sold them for $11 [10% profit - $6.95 x 2 commission]. Shortly after I sold, the stock went back to $10, so guess what I'll do? Yes, I'll buy again unless there is reason to believe the stock won't do well.

Another example, last Thursday I bought MELA for $2.57, the next day it closed at $2.81 and as I had bought a few thousand shares, I sold and made a reasonable profit even at just a $.24 cent profit per share. I bought last Thursday because it had reached a 52 week low given its current difficulties/controversies. Had I waited longer, I could have perhaps made thousands, OR taken a deep unrealized loss for quite some time, but for such a volatile stock, a few hundred dollars in profit was good enough for me for a day's work. I did however, keep a portion for long term and consider these free shares as what I kept, cost me less than the profit I took. 

By not being aggressive, not taking unreasonable/irresponsible risks, accepting reasonable profits, being patient and setting a limit for volatile stocks [for me $5K to $10K, depending on the stock], I have been successful thus far & it works well with inexpensive stocks for several reasons:

1) can buy high numbers,
2) by having high numbers, no need for the stock to rise too much in order to make a profit [unless you're greedy & I'm not],
3) keep a portion of shares for companies I believe will continue to increase, but only at a cost below the profit I made, hence, these are free shares.

I like many stocks, but obviously *can't buy & keep them all* like Mr. Buffett does, so I trade these.

To each its own, we're here to give/receive constructive criticism, but not to be judgmental.

*@KaeJS:* yes, you need a lot more patience, much more to learn like all of us & you take criticism well.  

Happy investing/day trading to all!


----------



## humble_pie

t.gal i've always thought you were a talented investor.
from day one.


----------



## humble_pie

mocking i have a pooch that day-trades. A cocker spaniel named parsley.

he has a sin number & files tax returns under the name of parsley pie aka pat a.persil.

parse trades the td bank's active trader platform, says it's better than virtual or jitney. Cheaper too in the long run, parse says.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> t.gal i've always thought you were a talented investor.
> from day one.


I remember every word you said HP and very much appreciated your words of encouragement & your humour too!


----------



## Oldroe

I remember when TG didn't have the knowledge or skills but you sure do now. The only thing now is a market melt down and you have your stripes.


----------



## Belguy

"I can't tell you how many people have contacted me over the years eager to invest their money after receiving a windfall. In 2008, an old friend and investment neophyte received an inheritance of over $200,000 following the death of her mother. Shortly after the will was probated, she said that she intended to play around in the stock market."

"I told her the stock market is no place to play any more than an alligator infested swamp is a good spot for a dip. She assured me she'd done a lot of research and had a good plan."

"Six months later, I called to find out how she was managing. She didn't want to talk about it."

--Alison Griffiths, 'Me and My Money', Moneyville.ca, Toronto Star, Feb.7/11


----------



## BarryD

Toronto.gal said:


> By not being aggressive, not taking unreasonable/irresponsible risks, accepting reasonable profits, being patient and setting a limit for volatile stocks [for me $5K to $10K, depending on the stock], I have been successful thus far & it works well with inexpensive stocks for several reasons:
> 
> 1) can buy high numbers,
> 2) by having high numbers, no need for the stock to rise too much in order to make a profit [unless you're greedy & I'm not],
> 3) keep a portion of shares for companies I believe will continue to increase, but only at a cost below the profit I made, hence, these are free shares.


Thanks for posting that. I'm new at this - the buying part. I've been watching and taking notes for a good year and change. Stuff is in a TFSA
and the plan so far has worked out to me buying 4-5K of 25-50 cent mining juniors. If it goes up a dime, cut and run and on to something else. #3 is
something to be thought of more seriously. House money is good! So is 5000 dimes. 

The good news is that there's 2 years room in the TFSA. I can afford to max that in little bits and the goal is to get to the bigger kids table with more in the $3-5 and maybe longer time frames. Oddly enough UUU was one of the first buys last summer for the dividend - 1000 of them - cut and run, still have it.. Selling 500 of those would raise some cash too.

Anyway, it's getting to be fish or cut bait time. I appreciate the lesson.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Welcome to the forum Barry!

I don't have experience with penny stocks, so I can't comment on that strategy, but you say you're new at buying, in that case, you should not be trading yet. 

Have you figured your financial goals/needs first? I don't know how much you already know or what you have read, but there are many good books that you might want to consider reading if you haven't already done so as they will help you a great deal. 

http://beginnersinvest.about.com/cs/newinvestors/tp/aatp110101.htm

I would add: 

The Lazy Investor - Derek Foster [I know, many will disagree]. 
The Four Pillars of Investing/The Intelligent Asset Allocator - William Bernstein

Lots of great information on the forum as well!

Keep learning & good luck!


----------



## Belguy

Derek Foster?????


----------



## atrp2biz

With Foster, it's do as I say, not as I do.


----------



## KaeJS

Lost 2.49% of my portfolio today.

Ouch.

And I don't even have any money to average anything down, or buy more of at cheap prices.

Silly me. 

What happened today?! Everything was fine at noon!!


----------



## webber22

My take on it ....... Looks like institutions were selling off to lock in the 1st quarter gains before April 1st. Oil and gold fell due to Libya rebels resuming oil output. Plus the talk of Europe increasing rates April 7th.


----------



## Argonaut

I love big down days, because my style of portfolio is bound to beat the market. I was actually up 0.3% when the TSX was down 1.04%. Inter Pipeline and RioCan doing the heavy lifting.


----------



## webber22

I now realize how vital portfolio balance is. I have a few stocks remaining in the portfolio to sell off before I go away in May with 100% cash, and they just happened to be oil companies SU, CPG, HSE


----------



## THE_UNIT

what do you guys think of buying CCJ at $30.02 ?


----------



## KaeJS

Boom. 

I don't even want to look at the market today. 

One hour in and I'm already down $500


----------



## Financial Cents

Shouldn't we be celebrating when the market goes down?

Confused.

My Own Advisor


----------



## Homerhomer

Financial Cents said:


> Shouldn't we be celebrating when the market goes down?
> 
> Confused.
> 
> My Own Advisor


It depends, I want it to go down way more, with many years to retirement I would rather be bying for less than more ;-)


----------



## Toronto.gal

Wish I had topped SU today instead of last Friday, but I will average down some more today if it goes below $40 & it looks like we're almost there.

Maybe a good day to top AAPL also & as per humble, a stem cell or two as well. 

Yes, days like these are buying opportunities for those that have cash.

*homerhomer:* sounds like you want a crisis, lol.


----------



## Financial Cents

@Torontogal - I just wish I had more cash to invest 

Don't we all though...

Oh well, at least my DRIPs are getting some stock at decent prices with the odd market dip. Gotta look at the bright side.


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> Wish I had topped SU today instead of last Friday, but I will average down some more today if it goes below $40 & it looks like we're almost there.
> 
> 
> Yes, days like these are buying opportunities for those that have cash.
> 
> *homerhomer:* sounds like you want a crisis, lol.


No, I just want to buy solid dividend paying stock at much cheaper levels that they are right now;-).

I also rushed in on SU last Friday, but I never bought a stock at the very bottom and probably never will, and I really have no good read on this one, I can see it anywhere between $32 and $48 in the next week or so ;-) Solid company even if it becames a long term hold ;-)


----------



## Toronto.gal

Financial Cents said:


> Oh well, at least my DRIPs are getting some stock at decent prices with the odd market dip. Gotta look at the bright side.


Indeed our dividends will buy us more shares & that's the way I think everytime I look at MFC, which is my worst performing stock. 

I always try to re-balance & have 20% cash to take advantage of opportunities.

*homerhomer:* I understood what you meant, just don't give KaeJS a heart-attack.


----------



## ddkay

oops wrong thread


----------



## gibor365

Placed limit buys on SU (about 40) and G (about 51.5), but think it's too late for today...will try to buy tomorrow on support levels..
Rough day... just hope it will rebound , will need it in 10 years at least (I hope)... holding everything in registered plans and TFSAs...


----------



## Jungle

Whoa.. people are freaking out. Markets tanked today! Seriously? And I had to buy $1750+ of cdn index yesterday!! Down 2% now!! (if I only waited one day.. ) lol


----------



## HaroldCrump

Sorry, Jungle, I was away yesterday.
I would have warned you


----------



## LBCfan

2% is just noise on the electrical conductor of life.


----------



## Jungle

HaroldCrump said:


> Sorry, Jungle, I was away yesterday.
> I would have warned you


Yea Harold, your crystal ball was working good there for a while.


----------



## KaeJS

So, I lost $500 today. Within the past 3 weeks, I have managed to turn a healthy portfolio with a fair amount of profit into a losing portfolio. Just dipped under my 2011 principle amount.

Who else is getting scared?

It seems like our slippery slope is exactly that -- a long, long, extra slippery slope affecting everything and more importantly energy and financials.

kaboom.

Any predictions or thoughts? Anyone selling in a panic? Ive officially run out of money to average down. I am just playing the "waiting game" and deciding whether or not I want to cut my losses and run on Barrick Gold.

And yet, even so, I always continue buying on margin...


----------



## Jungle

Remember what Buffet said: buy when people are fearful and sell when people are greedy. And yea if this keeps going I will want to buy some more for sure!


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS, what are you talking about...it's only now starting to look like a good buying opportunity 
Another 300 - 500 pts. drop and we'll be in bargain territory.
Use this time to look for good value hiding out there among all the other garbage.


----------



## Sherlock

You said it, I'm thinking of buying some MSFT, according to my highly secret calculations this is a good entry point.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> So, I lost $500 today. Within the past 3 weeks, I have managed to turn a healthy portfolio with a fair amount of profit into a losing portfolio. Just dipped under my 2011 principle amount.


Just $500...u r so lucky..... 
I don't even checking how much I'm losing from 2011 principle amount.

I'm not selling anything, just hope that in 10-15 years when I'll need money, I'll recover something.................


----------



## HaroldCrump

gibor said:


> Just $500...u r so lucky.....
> I don't even checking how much I'm losing from 2011 principle amount.


This is why having some bonds is so important...most bonds gained value today.
Even if you don't sell before maturity, it also helps reduce volatality in the portfolio.


----------



## KaeJS

HaroldCrump said:


> This is why having some bonds is so important...most bonds gained value today.
> Even if you don't sell before maturity, it also helps reduce volatality in the portfolio.


Bonds are definitely important.
I know most CMF'ers hate mutual funds, but my MF's are kicking ***. 

gibor, I don't have a problem waiting it out. Everything will be OK in time. But I purchased Barrick on margin, so I don't have much time...

I was hoping to get in at $46 and get out at 48 to make a quick $600. Didn't happen. Now i'm paying for it, literally!


----------



## ddkay

http://bloom.bg/kcEiwZ#ooid=43MGVpMjrGJAG65CP1l8jCr37r8RlLTL

Trend reversal? Maybe days away from USD and Treasury yields and commodities and equities going opposite directions


----------



## Belguy

With mid year rapidly approaching, the S&P/TSX Composite index is DOWN 0.93% so far on the year. The S&P 500 index hasn't done much better and is UP 2.27% YTD.

We're rich, we're rich!!!


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> With mid year rapidly approaching, the S&P/TSX Composite index is DOWN 0.93% so far on the year. The S&P 500 index hasn't done much better and is UP 2.27% YTD.
> 
> We're rich, we're rich!!!
> 
> 
> 
> This is sux  Any GIC, checking account, HISA and so on would do much better. This casino is too corrupted
> Bernanke was a dealer in NA casino. European casinos closed earlier (dealer nothing can do here - time difference  ), so they gained.....
> 
> Bernanke's and his staff family, friends etc made not bad profit today buying in the morning and selling before the speech!
> Whatever you say, casinos in Vegas more fair
Click to expand...


----------



## Belguy

XIC DOWN 1.68% over past 30 days while XBB is UP 1.14%!!!

Buy bonds!!!


----------



## webber22

When the US raises interest rates, both XIC and XBB will be down 1 million per cent


----------



## Belguy

But, then again, this could be a bummer of a summer for stocks. There's a wall of worry out there!!

If Greece ultimately defaults on it's debt, it could cause a cascading effect. 

This is what is currently worrying Obama the most--not the possibility of a double-dip recession.

Hedge your bets and protect your savings through thoughtful asset allocation. Don't play fast and loose with your retirement funds.

It's a dangerous world out there where anything might happen at any time in any place. Think the Middle East, Pakistan, North Korea etc. for starters.


----------



## larry81

I am buying MORE


----------



## Jon_Snow

I'm an indexer at heart.... well, the truth is I don't trust my ability to pick individual stocks. I dissolved my "couch potato" portfolio back in March, and pocketed some nice gains in doing so... I thought I had blew it when stocks did pretty well in April. Yet, looking around at the financial mess the world over, I really expected the other shoe to drop. And now it appears it has.

I will be looking to get back into index funds when it appears a bottom in the market is near. I think we have a quite a bit farther to fall yet.

If I could describe the current market in one sentence it would be "death by a thousand cuts". So many issues out there creating uncertainty...


----------



## gibor365

Smoking is continuing today.... I just hope that market will end year positive, as this is a 3rd year of a presidential cycle and from 1940 all 3rd years were positive.


----------



## Homerhomer

gibor said:


> Smoking is continuing today.... .


Great!!!! Another month of this and I will be adding to my long term holdings, let's keep it up...or down


----------



## HaroldCrump

Homerhomer said:


> Great!!!! Another month of this and I will be adding to my long term holdings, let's keep it up...or down


I think at this point, down is the best way to go.
All the gains from this year are toast anyway, so might as well use this as a buying opportunity.
The TSX was amongst the most expensive markets among the G8 world based on total market P/E ratios, so it is probably just a reversion to the mean.
I wouldn't mind the TSX falling below 13K during the next few weeks.


----------



## Lephturn

HaroldCrump said:


> I think at this point, down is the best way to go.
> All the gains from this year are toast anyway, so might as well use this as a buying opportunity.
> The TSX was amongst the most expensive markets among the G8 world based on total market P/E ratios, so it is probably just a reversion to the mean.
> I wouldn't mind the TSX falling below 13K during the next few weeks.


Below 13k... how about within the next few hours? Er... looking at the TSX... maybe the next 10 minutes even.


----------



## Jungle

It's so BLOOODY!!


----------



## Mockingbird

If investing, then buying opportunity.
If trading, then dream market.
No need to worry about the day to day fluctuation in the market if you have a plan - IMHO.

MB

PS: Regarding QE2, some truth to the old trading adage, "buy(sell/short) with rumour, sell(buy/cover) with news".


----------



## gibor365

Mockingbird said:


> If investing, then buying opportunity.
> If trading, then dream market.
> No need to worry about the day to day fluctuation in the market if you have a plan - IMHO.


Everything is depends on "fluctuation" and "plan"! 
If your plan to give away your money, sure, "no need to worry"


----------



## MoreMiles

Lephturn said:


> Below 13k... how about within the next few hours? Er... looking at the TSX... maybe the next 10 minutes even.


13084 today. Yup, it's either Monday or Tuesday we go below 13k.


----------



## ddkay

QE3, stock market inflates, commodities inflate, job growth slows. No QE3, stock market deflates, commodities deflate, job growth slows. US Fed - bringing the world moral hazard since 1987!


----------



## Mockingbird

gibor said:


> Everything is depends on "fluctuation" and "plan"!
> If your plan to give away your money, sure, "no need to worry"


Sorry, my plan always has been based on risk management.
And it served me well through all these years.

MB


----------



## Belguy

With the stock markets, it often seems like one step forward and then two steps back. The Dow has now been down six weeks in a row and that is the first time that has happened in nine years!!! It didn't even take place back in 2008 and we thought that might have been the worst of times. According to CBS News, trading floors around the world are becoming increasingly nervous. If nothing is done, the U.S. will default on it's debt on August 2 and so the uncertainty might very well last at least until then.

Hang onto your hats and enjoy the rollercoaster ride that is the stock market.

It was the best of times and it was the worst of times!!!


----------



## KaeJS

Brutal marketplace.

lost $3k so far in the past month. Yippee.

Its good to have dips now and then. But this is really not fun anymore.

Can we stop now? Even gold is stable. Why not rising?!


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Brutal marketplace.
> 
> lost $3k so far in the past month. Yippee.
> 
> Its good to have dips now and then. But this is really not fun anymore.
> 
> Can we stop now? Even gold is stable. Why not rising?!


You are fu$%&^g right my friend! I lost much more (unfortunately I throw into "casino" much more money)....
Just hope that Obama will do something if he wants to stay in White House.


----------



## doitnow!

*It's only luck...*

Sometimes one just gets lucky. I cashed all my RRSP mutual funds a couple of weeks ago and its been sitting in cash ever since earning 1.5%. 

I am new to investing, have been learning about how to invest by reading and following this forum. Want to thank everyone who has to date responded to what are likely very basic questions. 

My plan is to invest in a 60/40 100% ETF RRSP portfolio.

I have a number of concerns at this time:

1. Do you assume that the market will continue to dip and therefore advise to hold off investing until the market stabilizes?

2. I've read many posts from investors who recommend investing in a diversified portfolio of dividend paying stocks. I have read a Couch Potato article on the folly of this investment approach but I don't have enough knowledge or experience to weigh the pros and cons.

Any comments and ideas from experienced investors appreciated. I am 57 and do not plan to touch RRSP funds for another 10 - 15 years or more.


----------



## Belguy

Anyone can sell in a declining market.

If you do that, the trick is knowing when to get back in.

Even the experts aren't very good at that. 

It's called 'timing the markets' and, for the most part, it's a mug's game.

Would you have had the nerve to reinvest in the markets back in March 2009 during a time of maximum pessimism or would you have held off and waited until the biggest part of the rebound had already occurred?

Stocks are on sale now compared to where they were just a few short weeks ago. Are you going to chance it and hold on for even bigger discounts?

The biggest stock market gains occur in just a relatively few days. When will those days come this time around and will you be cautiously waiting on the sidelines when they happen?

I have been a buy-and-hold investor for all of my long investing life and I have experienced it all and been in it for the entire rollercoaster ride. I don't try to time the markets and I sleep well every night.

On the other hand, I do wish that I had invested in Toronto real estate back when instead of the stock market but I'll know better in my next lifetime.


----------



## MoreMiles

Belguy said:


> Anyone can sell in a declining market.
> 
> If you do that, the trick is knowing when to get back in.
> 
> Even the experts aren't very good at that.
> 
> It's called 'timing the markets' and, for the most part, it's a mug's game.
> 
> Would you have had the nerve to reinvest in the markets back in March 2009 during a time of maximum pessimism or would you have held off and waited until the biggest part of the rebound had already occurred?
> 
> Stocks are on sale now compared to where they were just a few short weeks ago. Are you going to chance it and hold on for even bigger discounts?
> 
> The biggest stock market gains occur in just a relatively few days. When will those days come this time around and will you be cautiously waiting on the sidelines when they happen?
> 
> I have been a buy-and-hold investor for all of my long investing life and I have experienced it all and been in it for the entire rollercoaster ride. I don't try to time the markets and I sleep well every night.
> 
> On the other hand, I do wish that I had invested in *Toronto real estat*e back when instead of the stock market but I'll know better in my next lifetime.


Really? Are you sure you don't mean Vancouver? $100k houses becoming $1million... You just need to own a few then your retirement fund is all set.


----------



## doitnow!

Belguy said:


> Anyone can sell in a declining market.
> 
> If you do that, the trick is knowing when to get back in.
> 
> Even the experts aren't very good at that.
> 
> It's called 'timing the markets' and, for the most part, it's a mug's game.
> 
> Would you have had the nerve to reinvest in the markets back in March 2009 during a time of maximum pessimism or would you have held off and waited until the biggest part of the rebound had already occurred?
> 
> Stocks are on sale now compared to where they were just a few short weeks ago. Are you going to chance it and hold on for even bigger discounts?
> 
> The biggest stock market gains occur in just a relatively few days. When will those days come this time around and will you be cautiously waiting on the sidelines when they happen?
> 
> I have been a buy-and-hold investor for all of my long investing life and I have experienced it all and been in it for the entire rollercoaster ride. I don't try to time the markets and I sleep well every night.
> 
> On the other hand, I do wish that I had invested in Toronto real estate back when instead of the stock market but I'll know better in my next lifetime.


What are you long term investments. Etf's or dividend paying stocks?


----------



## Mockingbird

KaeJS said:


> Brutal marketplace.
> 
> lost $3k so far in the past month. Yippee.
> 
> Its good to have dips now and then. But this is really not fun anymore.
> 
> Can we stop now? Even gold is stable. Why not rising?!


Welcome to the real trading world. 

If you are trading, then learn to control your emotions.
Understand your risk and mitigate accordingly.
Trading itself should be boring - IMHO

My 2c..

MB

PS: Go Canucks Go!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Really getting an itchy trigger finger.

I am a lousy market timer, and my ability to time a market bottom is probably non-existant. But I'm holding out for more losses to come.


----------



## KaeJS

Mockingbird said:


> Welcome to the real trading world.
> 
> If you are trading, then learn to control your emotions.
> Understand your risk and mitigate accordingly.
> Trading itself should be boring - IMHO
> !


Trading has no place for emotion - agreed.

But that does not mean you don't feel it sometimes.


----------



## Belguy

The majority of my portfolio is comprised of low fee, broad based index products with a 60/40 asset allocation.

I can never lose 100% of any single investment in a bad stock. Nortel comes to mind.


----------



## Belguy

I just calculated my YTD 60/40 index portfolio's return as of June 10 and I am down -0.56%.

Should I be laughing or crying?


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> I just calculated my YTD 60/40 index portfolio's return as of June 10 and I am down -0.56%.
> 
> Should I be laughing or crying?


And how did just your equity part?


----------



## doitnow!

Laughing would be a healthier not to mention more enjoyable option 

The question that comes to mind is what could you have done differently to protect against the market downfall and increase the value of your portfolio?

Would owning a few well diversified dividend paying stocks have weathered the storm any better?

I am asking because I am new to investing and wondering if there are strategies that mitigate the downswings.


----------



## gibor365

doitnow! said:


> Laughing would be a healthier not to mention more enjoyable option
> 
> The question that comes to mind is what could you have done differently to protect against the market downfall and increase the value of your portfolio?
> 
> Would owning a few well diversified dividend paying stocks have weathered the storm any better?
> 
> I am asking because I am new to investing and wondering if there are strategies that mitigate the downswings.


If I knew, (key word 'if'), I'd better buy GIC


----------



## doitnow!

gibor said:


> If I knew, (key word 'if'), I'd better buy GIC


I am new here but I don't think buying a GIC qualifies as investing as I think the bar should be set a trying to obtain a return that equals or betters the inflation rate. I don't think that there is a GIC out there that meets that criteria, or is there?


----------



## gibor365

doitnow! said:


> I am new here but I don't think buying a GIC qualifies as investing as I think the bar should be set a trying to obtain a return that equals or betters the inflation rate. I don't think that there is a GIC out there that meets that criteria, or is there?


Again, you cannot predict inflation for next 5 years, couple of weeks ago the best GIC that I could've buy through my discount brokarage was 5y - 3.25%, now - 3.1%. So if inflation is under 3% - you even gain a little bit...

On this forum saomebody told that he has GIC that will end next year and it's 5.2% . for sure he beat inflation


----------



## HaroldCrump

Lephturn said:


> Below 13k... how about within the next few hours? Er... looking at the TSX... maybe the next 10 minutes even.


You are right, I didn't check the TSX yesterday morning before posting 
Next stop coming up...12K


----------



## ddkay

That depends what inflation is and whether you're holding in a non-registered account or a TFSA. March CPI came in at 3.3%.

You can get a 4-year non-redeemable GICs at 3.25% or 5-year non-redeemable GICs at 3.50% from a few credit unions:

https://www.teacherscu.on.ca/Personal/Rates/TermDeposits/
http://www.acceleratefinancial.ca/rates/rates.aspx
http://www.outlookfinancial.com/products/rates


----------



## doitnow!

HaroldCrump said:


> You are right, I didn't check the TSX yesterday morning before posting
> Next stop coming up...12K


12K, Ouch, based on what rationale?


----------



## HaroldCrump

ddkay said:


> That depends what inflation is and whether you're holding in a non-registered account or a TFSA. March CPI came in at 3.3%.


GICs not only need to overcome the inflation hurdle but also the tax hurdle.
GICs are just about the least tax efficient investment, except in registered accounts.

Regarding the inflation hurdle, IMO, you need to compare _your_ GICs returns with _your_ CPI, not the govt. reported number.
The official CPI number may or may not represent _your_ "basket of goods and services".
Your personalized CPI may be dramatically different than the official number and therefore your GIC may be quite a bit ahead of inflation (unlikely) or way behind inflation, giving you a false sense of inflation protection.
I (roughly) track my own CPI and I can tell that the current GIC rates are substantially lagging my CPI.


----------



## doitnow!

HaroldCrump said:


> GICs not only need to overcome the inflation hurdle but also the tax hurdle.
> GICs are just about the least tax efficient investment, except in registered accounts.
> 
> Regarding the inflation hurdle, IMO, you need to compare _your_ GICs returns with _your_ CPI, not the govt. reported number.
> The official CPI number may or may not represent _your_ "basket of goods and services".
> Your personalized CPI may be dramatically different than the official number and therefore your GIC may be quite a bit ahead of inflation (unlikely) or way behind inflation, giving you a false sense of inflation protection.
> I (roughly) track my own CPI and I can tell that the current GIC rates are substantially lagging my CPI.


How does one go about calculating their CPI?


----------



## gibor365

doitnow! said:


> 12K, Ouch, based on what rationale?


TSX support level for Monday
12,980, 12,878, 12747


----------



## doitnow!

gibor said:


> TSX support level for Monday
> 12,980, 12,878, 12747


How does one determine "support level"?


----------



## MoreMiles

doitnow! said:


> How does one determine "support level"?


http://lmgtfy.com/?q=technical+analysis+support+and+resistance

If you don't know how to read charts like me... I use this to translate to plain English for you. http://www.stockconsultant.com/


----------



## Homerhomer

gibor said:


> TSX support level for Monday
> 12,980, 12,878, 12747


Do they actually mean anything? To me it looks like darts throwing, have enough targets and eventually you are bound to hit one;-)


----------



## MoreMiles

In my opinion, technical analysis is like religion.

You have the atheist non-belivers and you have frantic devotees. You have also people somewhere in-between. People who are superstitious and rather believe it exists but still not practicing it. 

The thing is... like religion, if enough people believe in it, have organized activities then you will see a pattern of activities forming. You will see a group of people going into a church to pray every weekend. You will see a group of people selling at "support level", making it drop very quickly below support.

The most common religions may include Christianity, Catholic, Buddhism, Judaism, Muslim (listed randomly in no particular order). The most common technical analysises are Moving Average, MACD, etc. Some choose 200 and some choose 50 days... depending what theory you have faith in. You just believe... you don't question why.

You see my comparison?


----------



## gibor365

doitnow! said:


> How does one determine "support level"?


pivot point calculations.


----------



## andrewf

It's good to have at least a rudimentary understanding of TA, even if you don't believe in it. It helps you to predict how the believers will behave.


----------



## gibor365

Yes, doen't matter in what you believe... for example why many mention 200SMA? comparing 50 SMA vs 200 SMA? Because doesn't matter if you believe in it or think that this is BS, the bunch of people will be making decisions based on SMA and move market in specific direction.

The same think about Pivot points support/resistance level, I assume that a lot of people have they sell/buy limit as per support/resistance level..

I'd say that popular technical indicators give a little push either way for price, even though it's not comparable to influence of "big speculators"


----------



## Belguy

I have just examined my portfolio returns a little more closely. If we take the period Jan. 1/05 to June 11/11, my portfolio has increased by 66.7% with no new contributions. This works out to 10.3% per year including dividends. However, over the past four years, that annual return has been reduced to an average of 6% per year.

Again, I do not own any individual stocks and the core of my portfolio is comprised of broad-based ETF's.

I suppose that it has outperformed GIC's but the ride along the way has had many jaw-dropping ups and downs.

If you were a new investor starting out today, and you were to consider these results, would you go the roller coaster index investing route or would you just take the calm and steady GIC route?

The answer to that would depend as much on your personality and risk tolerance as anything else.

If I were to do it all over again and knew back in January '05 what I know now, I might have just gone the ladder of GIC's route.

Who knows what the next six and a half years and beyond will bring.

Good luck to us all!!!


----------



## doitnow!

Belguy said:


> I have just examined my portfolio returns a little more closely. If we take the period Jan. 1/05 to June 11/11, my portfolio has increased by 66.7% with no new contributions. This works out to 10.3% per year including dividends. However, over the past four years, that annual return has been reduced to an average of 6% per year.
> 
> Again, I do not own any individual stocks and the core of my portfolio is comprised of broad-based ETF's.
> 
> I suppose that it has outperformed GIC's but the ride along the way has had many jaw-dropping ups and downs.
> 
> If you were a new investor starting out today, and you were to consider these results, would you go the roller coaster index investing route or would you just take the calm and steady GIC route?
> 
> The answer to that would depend as much on your personality and risk tolerance as anything else.
> 
> If I were to do it all over again and knew back in January '05 what I know now, I might have just gone the ladder of GIC's route.
> 
> Who knows what the next six and a half years and beyond will bring.
> 
> Good luck to us all!!!


Belguy,

This is rather uninspiring but important real life feedback for us newbies as it serves to temper our enthusiasm and overblown optimism...


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> If I were to do it all over again and knew back in January '05 what I know now, I might have just gone the ladder of GIC's route.


GIC's do not return 10.3%/annum.

You did well. You'd be a fool to ever look at it in regret.


----------



## doitnow!

KaeJS said:


> GIC's do not return 10.3%/annum.
> 
> You did well. You'd be a fool to ever look at it in regret.


Belguy,

I agree, 10.3 is not bad at all. 

Do you mind sharing which ETF's and dividend paying stocks you own and your allocation? I would be happy with 10.3 return over the next 10 years.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Just looking at the DOW futures, folks better get ready to get "smoked" a lot more this week.


----------



## Calgary_Girl

Yes, definitely got smoked in the market this past week. However, I viewed it as a great buying opportunity and loaded up on some more dividend paying stock.


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> Just looking at the DOW futures, folks better get ready to get "smoked" a lot more this week.


I am considering selling off all my TD and all my ABX tomorrow and buying them back


----------



## Jon_Snow

If you stock market whizzes would kindly let me know when we are at the bottom of this correction, that would be great. 

I know this is highly unlikely to be a March 2009 scenario, but I am still haunted by the fact I did not have the knowledge\courage to invest back then. - would be significantly closer to my early retirement aspirations if I had. I just hope I can time this opportunity right.

Back in Feb 2009 I plunked 100k in a 3 year GIC... Granted I'm getting over 5% in the final year, but measured against the gains I would have made in a simple index fund... Oh boy.


----------



## balk

As a general comment, we aren't that far removed from 2008 so any new investors don't have to look very far back to see what can happen in the stock market. 

I have been sitting in 10% cash and I will wait a little longer before I deploy it but there should be some good buying opportunities this summer. 

Perhaps this summer is when someone should consider starting the Smith Manoevre or another leveraged strategy once the markets have dropped a little more. There could be some great dividend stocks yielding 5-6% by then and the current cost of borrowing around 3%. This combination could make for a good opportunity. I realize that yield on cost is a bit of an illusion but if you are borrowing money and receiving twice the amount in dividend payments then you can sleep comfortably without hoping for any large capital gains.


----------



## Mockingbird

Jon_Snow said:


> Just looking at the DOW futures, folks better get ready to get "smoked" a lot more this week.


The futures haven't opened yet. Globex starts to trade at 5pm CT.

MB


----------



## Belguy

I might have mentioned in my previous post that it is just a snapshot in time. Had I reported these results just a few short weeks ago, they would have looked better or, had I waited a few more weeks, they might look a whole lot worse!!

This is what happens when certain managed funds advertise their performance, particularly around RSP season. They can pick whatever time frame they want to promote the most optimum returns.

Note that I achieved these results by religiously adhering to a buy-and-hold philosophy. Had I tried to time the market by jumping in and out whenever the markets were up or down, I probably would not have achieved even these results.

Most investors underperform because they get nervous when markets tank and sell and buy back in at precisely the wrong times. There are simply some people who shouldn't try to manage their own money. These would be self-managing investors would be better off using a financial advisor who will save them from themselves when times get tough.

If this sounds like you, be careful that you don't end up being your own worst enemy over the long run.

Buy, hold, rebalance and prosper with a properly allocated portfolio according to your own personal risk tolerance.

Tanking markets can be a dangerous time for investors. They will recover--they always have. Just keep your !!!!

I am not suggesting that declining markets are a ball of laughs but they can be a buying opportunity and they will bounce back sooner or later and so just try to enjoy the rollercoaster ride.


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Note that I achieved these results by religiously adhering to a buy-and-hold philosophy. Had I tried to time the market by jumping in and out whenever the markets were up or down, I probably would not have achieved even these results.
> 
> Most investors underperform because they get nervous when markets tank and sell and buy back in at precisely the wrong times.



KaeJS, don't you agree?!


----------



## KaeJS

I agree.

However, I also think there is opportunity in trading.

I've said it before a few times in some other threads; some stocks were meant for holding, others are meant for trading. 

A few easy examples of traders vs. holders would be:

*Trade*: Suncor (SU.TO), Apple (AAPL)

*Hold*: TD Bank (TD.TO), RioCan (REI.UN)

You could hold Suncor, because oil will make money. But you can make a lot more flipping from 39-41, 40-42, back down from 38-40. The stock is very volatile and it plays easily on the price of oil and supply and demand in the marketplace. Right now, I already know Suncor will be tanking because Saudi Arabia said they would increase supply.

Boom. There goes your Suncor stock along with the price of oil (most likely). This creates a perfect buying opportunity.

_Edit:_ And take a look at AAPL, How many times has it bounced from ~$320 up to ~$350, and then back down? That is a TOTAL support/resistance play.

But, looking at RioCan, you can see why it would be a "hold". Not only does it pay a monthly distribution and the other 3 stocks I mentioned do not, but look at a 1year chart for Riocan. It is quite stable and there are no quick turn arounds in price like Suncor or Apple have.


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> Just looking at the DOW futures, folks better get ready to get "smoked" a lot more this week.


Dow Futures are actually up. 

Stock Futures
Americas
INDEX VALUE *CHANGE *OPEN HIGH LOW TIME 
DJIA INDEX 11,902.00 *29.00 *11,883.00 11,902.00 11,870.00 22:05 
S&P 500 1,267.50 * 3.00 * 1,265.20 1,267.50 1,263.20 22:05 
NASDAQ 100 2,222.75 *5.00 * 2,218.00 2,222.75 2,216.25 22:05


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Dow Futures are actually up.
> 
> Stock Futures
> Americas
> INDEX VALUE *CHANGE *OPEN HIGH LOW TIME
> DJIA INDEX 11,902.00 *29.00 *11,883.00 11,902.00 11,870.00 22:05
> S&P 500 1,267.50 * 3.00 * 1,265.20 1,267.50 1,263.20 22:05
> NASDAQ 100 2,222.75 *5.00 * 2,218.00 2,222.75 2,216.25 22:05


Now they are still up , but very little. Many traders are thinking that US indexes may rebounce of 200 days SMA, at least for a short term.

About timing.... you can be right and can be wrong... you said by yourself that you expected ABX to gain lately (I was thinking the same for G), but almost all miners tanked. 
Now you want take losses and sell ABX, but maybe it will go uo (for example now gold is up $2.50).
Also, you telling that TD for HOLD and still you want to sell it.....


----------



## HaroldCrump

HaroldCrump said:


> Next stop coming up...12K


OK, we have now officially dropped into the 12K range.
I say _Bring it on_


----------



## Belguy

Some people are market timers and traders while others are investors.

Know the difference and decide which camp you want to be in.


----------



## andrewf

I think there's a difference between 'traders' and people who do market timing involving a trade every year or two on average.


----------



## KaeJS

gibor said:


> Now they are still up , but very little. Many traders are thinking that US indexes may rebounce of 200 days SMA, at least for a short term.
> 
> About timing.... you can be right and can be wrong... you said by yourself that you expected ABX to gain lately (I was thinking the same for G), but almost all miners tanked.
> Now you want take losses and sell ABX, but maybe it will go uo (for example now gold is up $2.50).
> Also, you telling that TD for HOLD and still you want to sell it.....


Selling TD and ABX to buy them back at a lower price, in the same day, or the next day. I still like both companies. For example, today when ABX was up 24 cents, i sold some shares. Now ABX is down 5 cents.

I did not sell any TD today, and I will not sell later.

It is okay to take losses if you will buy back in at a lower price. It saves you money.

And yes, I thought ABX would go up due to gold prices rises and economic concern, but the reason ABX did not go up is because:

A) it is semi-cyclical, and we are in june, which is one of the worst months historically for gold stocks
B) They had some bad press with those african rape charge allegations

But don't fret. Barrick will be back to $50 before christmas so long as the US doesn't screw EVERYTHING up


----------



## Belguy

After achieving a 0.5% return over 8 years, Tom Hamza writes in today's Toronto Star "when I recovered from the shock, I wrote down a couple of things so I would never be so stupid again:

1. I don't know enough and don't have time to learn enough to pick individual stocks.

2. I will never go without an annual performance review again.

My advice: Index a much as possible. Always measure. And remember that stock-picking without time, research, or skills ain't the way to build for the future."

Tom Hamza is president of the Investor Education Fund, a non-profit agency established by the Ontario Securities Commission


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> After achieving a 0.5% return over 8 years, Tom Hamza writes in today's Toronto Star "when I recovered from the shock, I wrote down a couple of things so I would never be so stupid again:
> 
> 1. I don't know enough and don't have time to learn enough to pick individual stocks.
> 
> 2. I will never go without an annual performance review again.
> 
> My advice: Index a much as possible. Always measure. And remember that stock-picking without time, research, or skills ain't the way to build for the future."
> 
> Tom Hamza is president of the Investor Education Fund, a non-profit agency established by the Ontario Securities Commission


0.5% per annum? or just 0.5% for whole 8 years?

TSX already down 3.75% YTD... similar my portfolio  yeap, i could've just invest into TSX and get the same losses...


----------



## Belguy

I stand corrected--it was 0.5% for the entire 8 years.

Also, it is interesting to note that the total return on U.S. stocks from 1802 to 2002 (sorry statistic not more up to date) was 7.8 per cent a year (of which 5 percentage points--or almost two-thirds of the total came from reinvesting dividends).

To illustrate how well we have done lately by comparison, the Dow is up 24 per cent!!!!! as of today since last July according to tonight's CBS Evening News.

That was unsustainable.

The same unsustainability would apply to smallcap stocks going forward from here after they have had a good run up until recently according to Canadian Business magazine.

Markets just do not go up in a straight line and sector performance always returns to the mean over time. It's generally smarter to look for beaten down sectors and to place your bets there knowing that they too will revert to the mean sooner or later.

Sometimes it can pay to be a contrarian and go against what the herd is doing.


----------



## Jungle

Getting smoked every day here. I don't have enough cash to dump in this market. (other than usual contributions)


----------



## HaroldCrump

Yeah 0.5% annualized is pretty bad. That's pretty much the return from an all-cash portfolio 
It probably indicates that this investor took several high risk bets, most of which did not work out and some disappeared into thin air.
Even a partial composition of blue chip dividend stocks would have provided a bottom for such a portfolio.



> To illustrate how well we have done lately by comparison, the Dow is up 24 per cent!!!!! as of today since last July according to tonight's CBS Evening News.
> 
> That was unsustainable.


Of course, however, it's not fair to look at one year returns only.
That's what the mutual fund salesmen do 

5 or 10 year annualized returns are better measures.


----------



## Belguy

Maybe we can't expect all that much in capital gains from our equity investments. In another study, reported in today's Toronto Star, bestselling author Jeremy Siegel calculated that 97 per cent of the total after-inflation return from stocks came from reinvesting dividends from 1871 to 2003. 

Only a miniscule 3 per cent came from capital gains!!!!

The moral of the story is to reinvest those dividends and not concern yourself so much with the capital gains as anemic as they are likely to be.

I came across this article for you to read before you go to bed:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-landing-after-2013-nouriel-roubini-says.html

Doesn't it seem like such a short time ago that everything seemed a bit rosier and the stock markets were reaching ever higher and, in just a few short weeks, sentiment has shifted 180 degrees to one of fear?

If anyone is looking for me, I'll be hiding under the bed!!!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Suddenly my cash stash earning 1.5% is looking pretty good. 

I missed out on some nice gains back in April when I sold all my index funds in mid-March... I was grinding my teeth back then - yet another bonehead attempt to time the market. With whats going on now, the move doesn't seem that bad in hindsight.


----------



## CB1021

I'm surprised not a lot of mention of playing shorts on this forum...


----------



## ddkay

That's easy, pick a Chinese company. DANG -19.25%, YOKU is -14.47% today.


----------



## ddkay

Bernanke is addressing the debt ceiling tomorrow at 2:30, stay on your toes

Also music streaming service Pandora (NYSE) begins trading tomorrow


----------



## humble_pie

it's hard to believe some of the posts recently.

markets are down slightly less than 10% in 6 weeks - a mere hiccup - but some are carrying on as if their right leg were being slowly amputated without anaesthetic.

for me, the TRE conference early tomorrow am will be a harbinger, because if the company blows it - if they come off looking like too much confusion or even chicanery is concealed - it will trigger many into thinking that numerous other companies are similar. Spotless & lily-pure on the outside, but inside it turns out the walls are eggshells & the corporation is mostly flimflam.

this will just feed into the greece, piigss, banks, US-is-next & i-don't-feel-too-good-myself collapse syndrome.


----------



## gibor365

All Asia/Pacific indexes are up now.... 
not good that Bernanke is addressing something....


----------



## andrewf

humble_pie said:


> it's hard to believe some of the posts recently.
> 
> markets are down slightly less than 10% in 6 weeks - a mere hiccup - but some are carrying on as if their right leg were being slowly amputated without anaesthetic.


These were the same people moaning about markets being overvalued and wanting to deploy some capital.

I've been rather bemused by the panic the last few weeks.


----------



## Sampson

humble_pie said:


> markets are down slightly less than 10% in 6 weeks - a mere hiccup - but some are carrying on as if their right leg were being slowly amputated without anaesthetic.


I'm curious to know what some people were doing back in 08/09. People must have been running around in circles like their heads were cut off.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Sampson said:


> I'm curious to know what some people were doing back in 08/09. People must have been running around in circles like their heads were cut off.


I was buying.
It's been more than a year since I've bought anything meaningful so I'm all in favor of a true correction.


----------



## Sampson

Me too, but I didn't start meaningfully buying until June and July of that year, but even then, we are way way way above those levels now. 

The questions for me going forward is how low will we go? Earnings for many companies I own aren't that bad, and I don't see the jobs and other data from the US as being horrendous. And how long will we be range bound? - I suspect as a few astute observers described back in 2009 that this de-leveraging process will takes years going forward.

Even to recover from the magnitude of QE1&2, seems like it would take 3-5 years with a booming economy to get over that hump.


----------



## Four Pillars

I did some buying in 08 - late in the year I think.

Not a lot however - just switched some of my short term bond ETF (XSB) to the Canadian index ETF XIU (TSX60).

I have too much cash and have been waiting to rebalance. Soon, I will start buying.


----------



## Homerhomer

HaroldCrump said:


> I was buying.
> I'm all in favor of a true correction.


Me too, I am not worried about today hopefully just a bleep up in a downtrend ;-) and I have many years to retire so down is good;-)


----------



## Belguy

During the past 6 1/2 years, I have stayed fully invested (buy and hold!) and gained an average annual return of 10.3% over that time frame neither adding to or taking anything out of my portfolio and trading only for rebalancing purposes.

I did not sell anything in 2008 and do not attempt to time the markets.

Watching all of the panic selling and opportunistic buying is merely amusement to me. I just do not participate and leave that to the market timers and wish them the best of luck as they will need it. 

Buy, sell, buy, sell, buy, sell--it makes my head explode!!!


----------



## Jon_Snow

I think you are pretty much spot on, Belguy. I think for the majority of DIY investors, yours is the correct strategy.

The only reason I'm contemplating trying to time a "correction" is that my mortgage is up early next year, and I want the OPTION to pay it off completely (90k)... if I were to commit my savings to the markets now, and subsequently watch them tank, well... it would really hurt my options.

But if we were to have a major stock correction in the next month or two, I really would have no choice but to buy in to the markets, mortgage pay-off be damned. But my wife and I are frugal maniacs and detest debt in any form and want the mortgage KILLED. Its a tough call for us.

I'm leaning toward staying out of the markets for now, paying the mortgage off, then adoping the Belguy mantra of buying in and holding for the long term. Hopefully prices are cheaper in early 2012 than they are now, but if not, so be it.

Nice market rally underway right now...


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> During the past 6 1/2 years, I have stayed fully invested (buy and hold!) and gained an average annual return of 10.3% over that time frame neither adding to or taking anything out of my portfolio and trading only for rebalancing purposes.


But Belguy, your situation is not fully reflective of the majority. I think many of us are still in the accumulation phase, therefore we can't always be fully invested. I know the majority of my savings are still to come, as a result, we are forced to constantly add to our portfolios.

I buy and hold also, and sold a couple of mistakes, but these only represent <2% of my portfolio.

I think humble had an interesting point, that these forums tend to show many interesting faces of the personal investment community, sure there has been a 10% dip, but we haven't even heard of stories where this has actually impacted anyone's well being (e.g. delaying retirement etc), just their emotional well being and stress levels.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. During the past 6 1/2 years, I have stayed fully invested (buy and hold!)
> 
> 2. and gained an average annual return of 10.3% over that time frame
> 
> 3. neither adding to or taking anything out of my portfolio and trading only for rebalancing purposes.
> 
> 4. I did not sell anything in 2008 and do not attempt to time the markets.
> 
> 5. Watching all of the panic selling and opportunistic buying is merely amusement to me.
> 
> 6. Buy, sell, buy, sell, buy, sell--it makes my head explode!!!


You have taken many hits at those that don't invest exactly like you do and after taking a short break, you continue to do so, lol.

1. Yes, we know! 

2. Congratulations; your strategy has worked well for you!

3. One did not have to be an 'opportunistic buyer' not to have bought any new investments in the last '6.5 years'; given your age however, it's understandable. But don't you also always remind us to buy low? 

4. Trading a small percentage of one's risky portfolio is not timing the markets. In your view, anyone who is not holding 100% of their investments ad infinitum, is a market timer, not so!

5. I don't laugh at others' mistakes nor am I critical of those that take advantage of buying opportunities [there can't be buyers unless there are sellers].

6. I can say that you make my head explode too.  Now we're even steven.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. markets are down slightly less than 10% in 6 weeks - a mere hiccup - but some are carrying on as if their right leg were being slowly amputated without anaesthetic.
> 
> 2. piigss


1. ROFL.  But so true.

2. Hmmm, is the 2nd 's' a typo, or is there an extra country I have forgotten about?


----------



## humble_pie

t.gal le beau gars has mood swings.

you know the drill. Only 17 hours ago he was hiding under the bed.

today he's out promenading on the boardwalk w his perfect portfolio.

effect is magnified whenever a whippersnapper attack threatens.


also re piigss.

it's, er, the plural of piigs.

heh

were you a gimlet-eyed editor in a former life ?


----------



## Sampson

humble_pie said:


> Only 17 hours ago he was hiding under the bed.
> 
> today he's out promenading on the boardwalk w his perfect portfolio.


Reason to continue working, no time for the brain to linger on things not worth lingering on.


----------



## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> 3. One did not have to be an 'opportunistic buyer' not to have bought any new investments in the last '6.5 years'; given your age however, it's understandable. *But don't you also always remind us to buy low?*


lol. This gave me a small chuckle as a voice in my head said:

"buy low, hold, rebalance, prosper! "


----------



## Belguy

OK then, buy high--it's your money.

I realize that everybody's circumstances are different and you can't compare a 20 year old with money to gamble with to a retired person who is dependent on his portfolio for the quality of his retirement. 

There are traders and then there are investors. That's basically my main point in a nutshell.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Belguy said:


> There are traders and then there are investors. That's basically my main point in a nutshell.


I think what some of us are trying to say is that they need not be mutually exclusive.
We don't need to confine ourselves into such pigeon holes.

You yourself must have taken some sector specific and/or region specific bets to get the > 10% annualized returns.
The broad based world indices haven't returned 10%+ in the last 6 years.
Most of the major benchmarks like the DJIA, S&P500 and even the TSX60 are still well below their 2006 - 2007 highs, let alone return 10%+.

To be the absolute purist that you claim to be, you must only invest in the broadest world index, such as VT, which would essentially return the world GDP such as 2% - 3% over the long run.


----------



## zylon

*for all exploding heads*

Here's an idea not original to me,
first heard it about one year ago,
and the more I think about it, the more sense it makes.

"_Most people invest 100% of their money
trying to achieve 10% gain.
Instead, they might consider investing 10% of their money
with the goal of achieving 100% gains_."


----------



## Belguy

Heh, now we're talking!!! 100% gains!!! I'm for that!!! Sign me up!!!

By the way, what are the odds? I like good odds before I bet on anything.

I do have to admit that my small allocation in the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund had a lot to do with my gains above the broad index returns.

Things may--or may not--be as rosy going forward and so my long term average will be affected one way or the other. 

The other thing that I will have to watch for is that I will have to start taking withdrawals from my registered accounts in the not too distant future. This means that I will have to be more cognizant of down markets than I have been up until now.

In other words, the 'hold' part of the equation becomes more difficult when mandatory withdrawals start to kick in.


----------



## doitnow!

Belguy said:


> Heh, now we're talking!!! 100% gains!!! I'm for that!!! Sign me up!!!
> 
> By the way, what are the odds? I like good odds before I bet on anything.
> 
> I do have to admit that my small allocation in the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund had a lot to do with my gains above the broad index returns.
> 
> Things may--or may not--be as rosy going forward and so my long term average will be affected one way or the other.
> 
> The other thing that I will have to watch for is that I will have to start taking withdrawals from my registered accounts in the not too distant future. This means that I will have to be more cognizant of down markets than I have been up until now.
> 
> In other words, the 'hold' part of the equation becomes more difficult when mandatory withdrawals start to kick in.


\

Hello Belguy,
Just checked your RBC Global Precious metals, 46% return in a year...to a newbie that's pretty impressive. Do you think it will continue to do well? How did you know how to pick this one. I take it that this is not an ETF?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. OK then, buy high--it's your money.
> 
> 2. I realize that everybody's circumstances are different and you can't compare a 20 year old with money to gamble with to a retired person who is dependent on his portfolio for the quality of his retirement.
> 
> 3. There are traders and then there are investors. That's basically my main point in a nutshell.


1. Belguy, who said anything about buying high? 

You said you have achieved a 10.3% return without having bought/sold anything in the last 6.5 years and my point was that there haven't been lower prices than those in 2008/2009 [and even in 2010/2011], so naturally there have been many 'opportunistic buyers' out there the last few years buying LOW [except for you, even when you always advise to buy low].  

2. No, you don't realize this, if you did, you would not attack those that sell. As you said, you can't compare a 20 year old with a retiree, but that is exactly what you seem to do all the time, you tell them to follow your method, no? You have said a million times that if you don't hold, you're a gambler [loser].

3. Harold said it right, 'they need not be mutually exclusive'.


----------



## Belguy

Well, you can be an active trader at heart or you can be a buy-and-hold long term investor. I realize that it is not as black and white as that but those are two strategies. Whatever works best for you. Ultimately, it's your money to manage as you see fit. I have tried to identify some of the common mistakes that many investors make recognizing that many on this forum are new to the investing game and perhaps can learn something from the wisdom of others who have walked the road that they are just embarking on. Maybe I could be accused of oversimplifying but I am convinced that most of what I have been preaching is tried and true.

When I set up my original asset allocation, I allowed for 6 per cent of my overall portfolio to be in precious metals and, after much research, determined that the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund had an excellent track record with a reasonable management fee. I do prefer low fee, broad-based ETF's for my core holdings but believe that the managers at the RBC PM Fund do add value and I do not have an aversion to low fee managed funds for sector, small cap, and emerging markets although I do use ETF's for my own small cap and emerging markets holdings.

I realize that I have hijacked this topic which was originally about getting smoked in the markets and so perhaps we should return to the topic at hand.


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy,

No personal attacks here. It's all in good fun. 
Of course our circumstances are different.

Also consider that with the advancement of technology and the quick and easy access of online trading, markets have become increasingly volatile. It is due to volatility that makes the trading more appealing in _some_ circumstances.

I can't stress enough that some stocks are more suitable for trading, while others are more suitable for holding. 
_Edit:_
And just remember, in 40 years from now, if I'm still alive, I won't be flipping stocks trying to day trade.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> 3. Howard said it right, 'they need not be mutually exclusive'.


I should just change my ID to _I'm NOT Howard_.
That would be the perfect alter ego to _I'm Howard_


----------



## Toronto.gal

Opps, sorry Harold. 

KaeJS: I take it you feel better today because you did not get 'smoked in the market?'


----------



## gibor365

Funny advise "buy low"  when nobody knows when is "low", how ofter you but "low", and weeks - months after you realize that you bought high ?!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sure you know when you bought low; you just don't know the *lowest* [or highest for that matter when you sell].

How often you buy items at 50% off, then a month later you see them at -75%?

Speaking of low:

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/06/15/stocks-almost-as-cheap-as-march-2009/


----------



## zylon

Belguy said:


> Heh, now we're talking!!! 100% gains!!! I'm for that!!! Sign me up!!!
> 
> By the way, what are the odds? I like good odds before I bet on anything.


No, no ... please don't start thinking like that. I'd hate to see you have to go back and rewrite the five thousand or more posts you've made on multiple forums repeating your mantra.

Pouring new ideas into old goat skin must be avoided at all costs.


----------



## Belguy

Actually, I have submitted just a mere 900 or so posts on this forum and they have not all been on one subject--maybe just half of them!!


----------



## Homerhomer

Belguy said:


> Well, you can be an active trader at heart or you can be a buy-and-hold long term investor. .


Yes, however you can be both as well (as already mentioned here), my first prority would be to buy companies and hold them for a long time, however at the time when I can find deals matching my long term hold criteria I trade.

I don't understand the constant efforts to label different approaches.


----------



## Belguy

You've got to be flexible and always open to new ideas!!!


----------



## Belguy

I got smoked in the markets again today!! The Dow is on track for having it's seventh down week in a row--a feat that it has not achieved since way back in March 2001 and it may not be over yet!! The worst sectors have been energy and materials. The Vix volatility index is now at a three month high indicating that the sell-off may even become more severe going forward. 

The key question now is is this downward spiral temporary or the start of something more prolonged and more sinister?


----------



## Mike59

Belguy said:


> The key question now is is this downward spiral temporary or the start of something more prolonged and more sinister?


If history continues to repeat itself, this is a long painful period of ups and downs, with a go-nowhere result, possibly for decades more. 

If my understanding is correct, the TSX peaked once in 2000 at 11,400 or so, which translates to about 14,400 in inflation adjusted dollars today, then again just over 15,000 in 2008. This latest spiral down is further evidence that the TSX is finding resistance at the 14-15k hurdle yet again... 

I converted my equities to cash when the TSX hit it's 200 day SMA. I'm truly waiting to re-enter this casino game in a serious way when the market P/E drops to 10


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> The key question now is is this downward spiral temporary or the start of something more prolonged and more sinister?


I'm very hope that "this downward spiral temporary".... I'm not 20 y.o kid who can wait 50 years for miracles 

Belguy, could you please expand on your rebalancing strategy...and do you rebalance something those gloom days?


----------



## Belguy

I generally rebalance my portfolio annually or whenever my allocation gets seriously out of whack.

The way that things are going, my bond allocation will soon be too large and I will have to sell some of them and buy equities.

Now there's a scary thought!!


----------



## doitnow!

Mike59 said:


> If history continues to repeat itself, this is a long painful period of ups and downs, with a go-nowhere result, possibly for decades more.
> 
> If my understanding is correct, the TSX peaked once in 2000 at 11,400 or so, which translates to about 14,400 in inflation adjusted dollars today, then again just over 15,000 in 2008. This latest spiral down is further evidence that the TSX is finding resistance at the 14-15k hurdle yet again...
> 
> I converted my equities to cash when the TSX hit it's 200 day SMA. I'm truly waiting to re-enter this casino game in a serious way when the market P/E drops to 10


I don't know when the "TSX hit it's 200 day SMA" or what that term means?. May be helpful for us newbies to know.

Why did you convert all your "equities to cash" and when?

I sold all my funds 2.5 weeks ago and was thinking of buying the XIU tomorrow for the Canadian portion of equities in my RRSP portfolio.

Do you think we have a long way to go yet before we hit bottom?


----------



## Belguy

The stampede to safety seems to be accelerating!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investors-flee-stocks-and-commodities/article2062417/

Who couldn't have seen this coming? As the article suggests, it's likely to be a long and difficult process and so a quick market rebound does not seem to be in the cards.

On the other hand, who knows!! If you sell now, you might be selling at or near the bottom but how likely is that?

Get ready for a l-o-n-g, hot summer!!!


----------



## Mike59

doitnow! said:


> I don't know when the "TSX hit it's 200 day SMA" or what that term means?. May be helpful for us newbies to know.
> 
> Why did you convert all your "equities to cash" and when?
> 
> I sold all my funds 2.5 weeks ago and was thinking of buying the XIU tomorrow for the Canadian portion of equities in my RRSP portfolio.
> 
> Do you think we have a long way to go yet before we hit bottom?


You may want to browse through investing books to learn more about "technical analysis". The 200 day "SMA" is the simple moving average of the stock price over approximately 10 months. Market timers use these tools to decide when to get in and out of the market, with many variations on the theme. Mebane Faber is a very smart dude, and has an interesting blog that applies this approach at http://www.mebanefaber.com/

I converted all my equities to cash because I don't believe in losing money...My strategy is to strive for smaller gains, and get out while the going is good. I tend to implement sell points and tolerate no more than a 5% loss on any purchase or when the equity hits its 200-day SMA, whichever comes first. For this reason I exited high yield bonds last year, exited gold stocks in January, and exited equities last week (by selling XIC and moving to high interest investments savings accounts, now earning 1.2-1.3%). This has worked for me and I've earned much more than I've spent. 

Regarding how much lower we are to go: If we use a crystal ball to predict where we are historically, the valuations are still quite rich given current P/E ratios. Previous cyclical and secular bear markets have punished the stock market and cut the market as 75% .
Example a: Nasdaq 2000-2002: if anyone can hold through this, you're braver than I:


----------



## fatcat

You have to wonder why, with the rise of gold and the predictions of rampant inflation, people are buying at these treasury yields. 
There is a lot of spooked money out there.
Bill Gross says you aren't being compensated for the risk and yet the yields are falling. 
Bernanke and a lot of people I hear on Bloomberg are looking at a second half rebound.
If they are wrong .... all bets are off.


----------



## KaeJS

gibor said:


> I'm very hope that "this downward spiral temporary".... I'm not 20 y.o kid who can wait 50 years for miracles ?


I don't have 50 years to wait, either.

I am paying over $500/year to hold Barrick Gold and I have already lost $1200 on the stock. It's all part of the investing game. I am paying money to lose money at the moment.

At the end of the day, the market sentiment is garbage - this means your stocks will continue to fall until good news is published.


----------



## KaeJS

doitnow! said:


> *I sold all my funds 2.5 weeks ago and was thinking of buying the XIU tomorrow for the Canadian portion of equities in my RRSP portfolio.*
> Do you think we have a long way to go yet before we hit bottom?


Just wait.

I wouldn't buy in just yet.

Keep your finger on the trigger, but don't pull it quite yet...
If you pull it, just do some. Not all.

Futures are up for DOW, but the TSX 60 are down.

XIU basically is the TSX 60, so it is likely that XIU will fall again.


----------



## donald

Look out!tommorow the feds in the us are releasing the_housing stats,the jobless cliams,and the feds finanicial sheets...This will be like picking up steam going down the roller coster!


----------



## dubmac

Mike59 said:


> If history continues to repeat itself, this is a long painful period of ups and downs, with a go-nowhere result, possibly for decades more.
> 
> If my understanding is correct, the TSX peaked once in 2000 at 11,400 or so, which translates to about 14,400 in inflation adjusted dollars today, then again just over 15,000 in 2008. This latest spiral down is further evidence that the TSX is finding resistance at the 14-15k hurdle yet again...
> 
> I converted my equities to cash when the TSX hit it's 200 day SMA. I'm truly waiting to re-enter this casino game in a serious way when the market P/E drops to 10


Mike59 - it sounds like you know what you are doing wrt to making money in this (or any) market. I am not that savvy an investor - but having read Ben Graham's book on value investing, my approach to buy quality dividend stocks or ETF's, keep costs down, and let them drip dividends for the next 15 yrs. I guess my approach to to buy at as low a price as possible and don't sell. Are there any suggestions that this approach is equally successful as the approach that you employ?


----------



## Yudansha

I exited out of nearly all my equities over the last few weeks. There is a lot of bearish momentum out there right now. Right now my question is not if the markets are going down, but more of how much and how quickly. 

IMO we are at the peak. Therefore-> exit certain equities classes, get defensive and move into short term bonds/fixed income etc. 

On a side note, huge volume into VXX, up 8.48%...

hmm to buy some XIV or more VXX for tomorrow.......


----------



## liquidfinance

As I am mainly a dividend investor I am going to hold through he stormy patch and increase my holding as and when the good news arrives.

The holdings are long term. My safety net is in cash so there is no reason why I would need to liquidate my assets at a loss and they are all for the long haul. 15year +

One things looks for sure is that those of us who are holding on are in for another day of getting smoked!


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> I don't have 50 years to wait, either.
> 
> I am paying over $500/year to hold Barrick Gold and I have already lost $1200 on the stock. It's all part of the investing game. I am paying money to lose money at the moment.
> 
> .





KaeJS said:


> Just wait.
> 
> I wouldn't buy in just yet.
> 
> Keep your finger on the trigger, but don't pull it quite yet...
> If you pull it, just do some. Not all.
> 
> .



Dear Kaj ;-)

Do you not see a problem here, first of you are admitting to putting yourself in a loosing situation and then within minutes you are advising others what to do

Didn't others advise you to get out of margin and keep some cash to take advantage of market corrections ;-) Wouldn't taking in advise suits you better;-)


----------



## Homerhomer

dubmac said:


> - but having read Ben Graham's book on value investing, my approach to buy quality dividend stocks or ETF's, keep costs down, and let them drip dividends for the next 15 yrs. I guess my approach to to buy at as low a price as possible and don't sell.?


This is a great approach which should turn out to be a winning strategy in the long term, the issue is finding bargains at the current prices, especially once that would fit in Graham's criteria, I just don't see them.


----------



## Homerhomer

liquidfinance said:


> As I am mainly a dividend investor I am going to hold through he stormy patch and increase my holding as and when the good news arrives.
> 
> The holdings are long term. My safety net is in cash so there is no reason why I would need to liquidate my assets at a loss and they are all for the long haul. 15year +
> 
> One things looks for sure is that those of us who are holding on are in for another day of getting smoked!


In such case you should be hoping for more down days so you can buy cheaper and get better yields for years to come ;-)


----------



## KaeJS

Homerhomer said:


> Dear Kaj ;-)
> 
> Do you not see a problem here, first of you are admitting to putting yourself in a loosing situation and then within minutes you are advising others what to do
> 
> Didn't others advise you to get out of margin and keep some cash to take advantage of market corrections ;-) Wouldn't taking in advise suits you better;-)


lol, yes. I see what you're saying.

But he is not buying on margin. And would you advise him to buy XIU right now? Cause I sure wouldn't 

And ABX is on the rise. I'll be able to sell out at a profit (eventually)


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> But he is not buying on margin. And would you advise him to buy XIU right now? Cause I sure wouldn't
> 
> )


I have no idea so I will keep my advises to a minimum ;-), personally I was able to get out of all my short term trading position with profit (except one being Suncor which I still hold and have very little worry about it's future) and hold quite a bit of cash hoping the down turn will continue while confidently holding on to my long term holds with CSCO being the only dog.

No idea what will happen in the near future, we may be at the bottom of the correction, this may be just the beginning of a serious one, or maybe just a summer weakness. Don't know ;-)


----------



## liquidfinance

Homerhomer said:


> In such case you should be hoping for more down days so you can buy cheaper and get better yields for years to come ;-)


This is my positive the glass is half full outlook


----------



## dubmac

Homerhomer said:


> the issue is finding bargains at the current prices, especially once that would fit in Graham's criteria, I just don't see them.


Me niether..at least not yet. One approach used by Graham is to watch for stocks/indices with low PE ratios (I think Graham suggested PE ratios in the neihborhood of 15) - no surprise here. Presently the PE ratio for the TSX is 25.60. Mike59 is waiting for a PE ratio of 10 - I seem to recall the PE ratio was 11.1 in October 2008 - (banish the thought). I'm going to sit on sidelines for a while yet - at least well into July unless there is any reason otherwise.


----------



## andrewf

Yudansha said:


> I exited out of nearly all my equities over the last few weeks. There is a lot of bearish momentum out there right now. Right now my question is not if the markets are going down, but more of how much and how quickly.
> 
> IMO we are at the peak. Therefore-> exit certain equities classes, get defensive and move into short term bonds/fixed income etc.
> 
> On a side note, huge volume into VXX, up 8.48%...
> 
> hmm to buy some XIV or more VXX for tomorrow.......


I've been adding to XIV. I think I've added as much as I will unless we see the VIX spike over 30-35. Then I would pile in.


----------



## KaeJS

Homerhomer said:


> No idea what will happen in the near future, we may be at the bottom of the correction, this may be just the beginning of a serious one, or maybe just a summer weakness. Don't know ;-)


Definitely know how to CYA, dontcha?


----------



## Belguy

Was it just me who got smoked in the markets this week??

I heard someone say today that God himself could not solve the European debt crisis--starting with the situation in Greece. And so, if it unsolvable, what does that mean for stocks????


----------



## Betzy

Hey hey now Belguy, need I remind you, invest rebalance and prosper!! 
Sorry couldn't resist...


----------



## Belguy

It is my policy to sell nothing in declining markets. I stay fully invested at all times. That said, these steep market declines are getting harder to take the older that I get. When I turn 71, I am going to be forced to do some selling even in down markets and that is why a fixed income component is so important.

Buy, hold, swear at the markets, and prosper.


----------



## Mike59

Belguy said:


> It is my policy to sell nothing in declining markets. I stay fully invested at all times. That said, these steep market declines are getting harder to take the older that I get.


I'm not sure if you've come across "Unveiling the Retirement Myth" by Jim Otar, but it may forever change the way you view the markets and your retirement. 

The sequence of returns "now" could damage a retiree's portfolio and render too much damage to ever repair. It would be interesting to quantify/aftcast the probability of your portfolio making it to age 90, 95 given the unfavorable events that have unfolded since '08. 

One could argue that this is a suitable time to export some risk to an annuity before it gets any worse...


----------



## Belguy

For those who are invested in the S&P/TSX Composite Index, your YTD return is negative 4.86%.

Effectively, you are back to early last October levels and have a zero net return over the past eight months.

Gotta love the stock market!!!


----------



## MoreMiles

Belguy said:


> For those who are invested in the S&P/TSX Composite Index, your YTD return is negative 4.86%.
> 
> Effectively, you are back to early last October levels and have a zero net return over the past eight months.
> 
> Gotta love the stock market!!!


Worse yet, if your investment has a big portion in RIM, your YTD -53%

I am not sure about these die-hard "never sell at loss" promoters. If you hold on to RIM, you may lose another 50%... to come back even to early 2011, you need to DOUBLE! So 50% loss = 100% gain needed for catch up.

I don't think it is reasonable to expect 100% gain in a normal market... so many people may not live that long to see it.

Another example... Yahoo (YHOO) was $100 in 2000. Right now, eleven years later, it is still at $15, 85% loss. To make it back, you need 600% gain!

So personally, I don't believe in "hold-n-never-sell" theory. I believe in "Cut your loss and move on", "Never fall in love with your investment", and "Admit defeat and go elsewhere".


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> For those who are invested in the S&P/TSX Composite Index, your YTD return is negative 4.86%.
> 
> Effectively, you are back to early last October levels and have a zero net return over the past eight months.
> 
> Gotta love the stock market!!!



Tell me about it. I've watched my TFSA go from $16,300 to $15,900 in a couple weeks... 

Makes me frustrated because I know that when I want to contribute my $5,500 in January, it will be right back up and flying high again. Why can't it just dip hard in the last week of december?


----------



## KaeJS

MoreMiles,

You did however mention two "tech" stocks.

Tech stocks are never meant to be held forever. Technology changes way too quickly. Eventually Apple will fall, as well, when someone else comes out with a new gadget that everyone falls in love with.

Google is probably around to stay, but just because they have so much freakin' money and own everything.

I just have to throw in that if you bought and held TD Bank () since 2000, you would have made 100%.


----------



## MoreMiles

KaeJS said:


> Tell me about it. I've watched my TFSA go from $16,300 to $15,900 in a couple weeks...
> 
> Makes me frustrated because I know that when I want to contribute my $5,500 in January, it will be right back up and flying high again. Why can't it just dip hard in the last week of december?


Hmm... my TFSA went from $15000 to $8000 in less than 2 weeks  Because of silver AGQ, remember that week with $50 to $30 spot price drop? Oh well... lesson learned.


----------



## Jungle

KaeJS said:


> Tell me about it. I've watched my TFSA go from $16,300 to $15,900 in a couple weeks...
> 
> Makes me frustrated because I know that when I want to contribute my $5,500 in January, it will be right back up and flying high again. Why can't it just dip hard in the last week of december?


You could always take the $5500 now and put it in a non reg. Then just transfer the shares over to TFSA come Jan 1.


----------



## KaeJS

Jungle said:


> You could always take the $5500 now and put it in a non reg. Then just transfer the shares over to TFSA come Jan 1.


That's what I did. 

But not with the entire $5,500. 

Just part of it, cause there might be more bargain to come.


----------



## Jungle

Smoked again, like a big fat smoked salmon. Mmm 

Hopefully this continues when I do some contributions next week.


----------



## GOB

KaeJS said:


> MoreMiles,
> 
> You did however mention two "tech" stocks.
> 
> Tech stocks are never meant to be held forever. Technology changes way too quickly. Eventually Apple will fall, as well, when someone else comes out with a new gadget that everyone falls in love with.
> 
> Google is probably around to stay, but just because they have so much freakin' money and own everything.
> 
> I just have to throw in that if you bought and held TD Bank () since 2000, you would have made 100%.


You do realize Apple has higher market cap, more profit, and more cash than Google, right? Not to mention they've been around since the dawn of computing. I wouldn't bet against Apple before Google.


----------



## andrewf

Apple is, I think, in a more precarious position than Google because so much depends on one person, and that person is dying.


----------



## Abha

andrewf said:


> Apple is, I think, in a more precarious position than Google because so much depends on one person, and that person is dying.


I think this is the biggest fallacy facing Apple. Sure Steve Jobs is vital to Apple but at the same point, does anyone really expect Apple to start stumbling the second Steve Jobs dies.

He's already laying out plans and a framework for when he leaves and lets not forget his role has greatly diminished in the past two years because of his health concerns.

Sure Apple will stumble, it happened to Microsoft, Cisco etc. But that's way down the road. 

Apple is blowing out every quarter and we are heading into Q3 and Q4 with the iPhone 5 and the iPad 2.5 on the horizon.

On top of this, Apple is in talks to buy Hulu to gain content, is looking to dominate the TV Space and might possibly buy an entire telecom (Sprint/Verizon) to control the end to end experience for an end user. 

This is a story that still has legs


----------



## Toronto.gal

Abha said:


> I think this is the biggest fallacy facing Apple....This is a story that still has legs.


I agree! Moreover, I don't think consumers' appetite for their current products will be any less, with or without Mr. Jobs. 

I think by now, all AAPL investors are prepared for a significant price drop in the event of his death, but it would only be temporary IMO. 

AAPL is now part of a global culture, just look where the stock is in his absence. I really don't think that his departure would alter the forecasted 70+ million sales of iPads by 2014.

Anyway, I'll review my ST from time to time so as not to 'get smoked'.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Apple is, I think, in a more precarious position than Google because so much depends on one person, and that person is dying.


We're all dying...

The uncertainty over Jobs has to have been priced in already. This is a company that's growing at 100% a year and has a P/E:ttm of 0.17...compare that to google and amazon. Acceptable value for a decent growth stock is 1.0. Apple is being treated like a bloated company past its prime when reality is it is one of the best growth stocks in the entire tech industry. Growth being legitimately baked by earnings, unlike NFLX, LNKD, etc.


----------



## andrewf

Maybe we're talking past each other. You're talking about the next few quarters, and I'm talking about 5-10 years down the line. Apple fell apart once when Jobs was kicked out. Expecting Apple to execute flawlessly for ten years is not credible.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Maybe we're talking past each other. You're talking about the next few quarters, and I'm talking about 5-10 years down the line. Apple fell apart once when Jobs was kicked out. Expecting Apple to execute flawlessly for ten years is not credible.


I expect them to excecute at a level greater than their competitors and continue to grow earnings, though not at the same rate. Easily for the next 5-10 years considering we are still in the relative infancy of global growth. This growth easily undervalues their current share price. Disagree? Does Jobs' health justify the fact that a company like amazon is awarded a multiple 6-100x greater than Apple, depending on the metric used?


----------



## HaroldCrump

The argument being used against APPL (i.e. Steve Jobs' health) should be equally applicable to BRK as well.
After all, neither Buffet nor Munger are getting any younger.
Different types of companies, of course, I know.
Tech company like APPL depends on constant innovation and technological breakthroughs (not to mention captivating the fickle minded teenage and corporate busybee users), whereas all BRK has to do is sit back and collect the huge piles of cash generated by their various, diversified businesses.

However, BRK's ability to _grow_ has been largely dependent on Buffet & Munger's brilliance as investors.

IMHO, BRK has a greater risk than Apple around the impact of the loss of their fearless leaders.


----------



## Belguy

Was it just me that got smoked in the markets today?

It always seems to be the U.S. that causes the markets to tank!!

They have one bunch of stupid politicians down there that make Canada's leaders look like geniuses by comparison. 

My old boss used to say that you always get what you deserve but what did the Americans do to deserve the bunch of nincompoops that they have in Washington.

What a sorry lot!!


----------



## Jungle

I got smoked today. I hope it goes down again tomorrow, I have some buying to do!


----------



## KaeJS

Lost a pissload today.

All my stocks were in the red. No money to short.

When am I ever going to learn that I need to have more _cash on hand_?

What a fool I am. I should (almost) be categorized with those bumbling american politicians!


----------



## Abha

Except for playing RENN as a daytrade and holding TZA I also got beaten today.

In any case I expect to see more RED tomorrow (in the morning at the very least)


----------



## Jon_Snow

Sometimes it pays to be chicken****. That pretty much sums up my approach to investing the bulk of my savings the past few months. I simply can't take the plunge... So on with the HISA 1.25% returns!!!!


----------



## HaroldCrump

Abha said:


> In any case I expect to see more RED tomorrow (in the morning at the very least)


Asian markets have already opened with > 1% down.
Interesting day ahead...who knows they might announce a budget deal early tomorrow


----------



## andrewf

Am I the only one not getting exercised about what's going on?


----------



## KaeJS

HaroldCrump said:


> Asian markets have already opened with > 1% down.
> Interesting day ahead...who knows they might announce a budget deal early tomorrow



Let's hope.


----------



## Jungle

andrewf said:


> Am I the only one not getting exercised about what's going on?


The only thing I want to exercise is my trigger finger; ie: buy.


----------



## dogcom

I will stay out of the way of the train and stay in cash until something changes. I may lose a few percent on a big up day but so what.

We are going for the 4 year cycle low and everything is lining up for that unless we get a game changer like we did with QE2.


----------



## Argonaut

KaeJS said:


> Lost a pissload today.
> 
> All my stocks were in the red. No money to short.
> 
> When am I ever going to learn that I need to have more _cash on hand_?
> 
> What a fool I am. I should (almost) be categorized with those bumbling american politicians!


Kae, you should buy some put options in an index as insurance. They are cheap and less risky than shorting. I put up $419 today in SPY and my put is already worth $535.

I could see the S&P 500 dropping another 5% before the debt crisis is over. I just hope my stocks don't get hit bad as the general market. Making money on the way down makes life easier.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Argonaut said:


> Making money on the way down makes life easier.


Exactly! That is in fact my weekly philosophy. 

I did not even bother to see what was down as there was no point and anyway, my focus was on what was up so that I could trade & had a pretty good week thus far trading 3 stocks under $5 for 4% to 7.5%. 

Let's see what excitement tomorrow & Friday will bring us. 

Not adding/averaging down on existing positions until maybe later in the week.


----------



## Belguy

Was it just me that got smoked in the markets this week?


----------



## Abha

I didn't get smoked but I am down about 2% this week. 

Some stupid moves on my part but I think I'll be okay by mid next week.


----------



## Jungle

Nice way to end the month for net worth updates.. not!

My speculation: debt ceiling will be raised by the time TSX opens on Tuesday.


----------



## Belguy

You can lose more in one WEEK in the blinkety blink stock market than you can make in one YEAR in some GIC's!!!


----------



## Argonaut

I lost 0.5% on the week. Buying puts in the S&P500 was probably one of the slicker moves in my investing career.

I maintain that the best portfolio for myself is a mixture of dividend paying stocks, gold, and cash. Works in a bull or bear market. I took a little gold and stocks off the table to add cash. Rough guess now is 55/25/20 stocks, gold, and cash. Use some of the cash to mess around with options. Will buy more gold later.


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> I lost 0.5% on the week. Buying puts in the S&P500 was probably one of the slicker moves in my investing career.
> 
> I maintain that the best portfolio for myself is a mixture of dividend paying stocks, gold, and cash. Works in a bull or bear market. I took a little gold and stocks off the table to add cash. Rough guess now is 55/25/20 stocks, gold, and cash. Use some of the cash to mess around with options. Will buy more gold later.


Gold miners are what contributed to my loss for the week. Should have just stuck to gold


----------



## Belguy

Was it just me that got smoked in the markets today? Again! Still! The new norm!!!

Buy gold!!!


----------



## andrewf

UGL being up nearly 5% sure made today easier to bear.


----------



## KaeJS

Hello everyone,

My name is KaeJS. Today, I got smoked in the market.

I am currently learning a new lesson. This lesson is called "Diversification 101" and I chose to learn it the hard way. So far, I have spent $3,000 for this course and I'm still not finished paying. However, I seem to be learning quite a bit and feel it will benefit me in the future. My professor is Mr. StockMarket, he is always right, but he often has mood swings and you never know how he may act one day to the next!


----------



## Jungle

Why not just DCA and buy low?


----------



## KaeJS

I'm not sure if your post was directly pointed at me, Jungle.

But, you can only DCA if you have cash!


----------



## Belguy

Heck, you can always borrow the cash!!!


----------



## Abha

I made the same mistakes when I was his age. You learn pretty quickly what works and what doesn't work in investing. 

He's getting his mistakes out of the way and by the time he figures out his strategy and risk profile he'll be making tons of money.

Don't borrow cash. It's not worth it.


----------



## donald

I hear ya kaejs,mr market taught me to never speculate before earnings,i added another 50 shares to (cat)thought for sure they would beat them and it would be a easy ride up...lol,mr market says oh ya take a -1000k lose **** for brians lol.Did the exact same thing with waste mangement,but i have also had good gainers...bce,ibm,mcd,cnr,looks like cvx is back uptrending again and ko is doing ok

Surprisingly and it aint personal but td is absoultley giving me a slow death on my shares down about 1k there too.

The hardest thing for me is trying to discern not being a involuntray investor,but for td i bought long/div ect

What the hell thou,theres carnegie everywhere.


----------



## KaeJS

I'm down about $1400 on TD Bank now... which is just insane to think about since I was up about that much just a few months ago. I'm holding for the divvy, but I think I may sell half my shares when it hits 80 again.

I still think CAT is a good long term pick.


----------



## J3ff

*63.3% Cash*

I'm 63.3% cash right now and will be 70.7% tomorrow.

Selling my winners now and staying in cash until the market has time to digest all the bad news - and the potential threat of more bad news. You would think the market has already priced in a lot of the bad news that's coming out...

All I'm thinking right now is:
Warren Buffett rule #1: Never lose money.
Warren Buffett rule #2: Never forget rule #1

On a weighted average basis, I've lost 2.2% of my portfolio. On an absolute basis, I'm down 4.47%. Gotta start listening to Warren...

So far much of my losses have been buffered by bear ETFs - although , you could also lose your shirt with these bad boys.

When the media starts reporting that your bank deposits may be at risk, either we are at the bottom (i.e., fear is at its maximum and it's time to be a contrarian - buy buy buy!) or things are about to get a whole lot worse. See here. The article was posted before the announcement that the U.S. has agreed to raise the debt limit, but nevertheless, still quite frightening...

I agree - diversification in these times is best. Time to buy some silver...HUZ! White hot silver.


----------



## peterk

Down 2.9% today - Finally put my porfolio I've been building for the past 12 months into the red  Still trying to decide if I should dump more into the market, cause any more that I add now I'm going to "need" within the next year.


----------



## slacker

My broad based ETF's have taken a hit, but my "sector plays" on Canadian REIT and dividend payers are holding their own.


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> But, you can only DCA if you have cash!


LOL, but no worries KaeJS, Jungle will lend you some money. 

For the past few weeks, I have mostly been trading to increase my cash position and today was no different; traded gold/uranium stocks, so I have more cash now for DCA'ing. 

Did not even look at my long term stocks, but at least the dividends will buy more free shares [thinking of Manulife specifically].


----------



## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> Did not even look at my long term stocks, but at least the dividends will buy more free shares [thinking of Manulife specifically].


Would like to buy MFC, but the yield is still too low. I want to buy under $14. I also want to buy SLF under $25.

I may buy SLF with some margin, but only because the dividend is greater than the interest payments on my margin. Cant quite justify that with MFC, just in case things stay sour for a while... but 100 shares of each would be nice. 100 SLF at 25, 100 MFC at 14.


----------



## Argonaut

If you can believe it, my portfolio was up about 2% today.

It's all about gold. The king of all investments.


----------



## blin10

J3ff said:


> I'm 63.3% cash right now and will be 70.7% tomorrow.
> 
> Selling my winners now and staying in cash until the market has time to digest all the bad news - and the potential threat of more bad news. You would think the market has already priced in a lot of the bad news that's coming out...
> 
> All I'm thinking right now is:
> Warren Buffett rule #1: Never lose money.
> Warren Buffett rule #2: Never forget rule #1
> 
> On a weighted average basis, I've lost 2.2% of my portfolio. On an absolute basis, I'm down 4.47%. Gotta start listening to Warren...
> 
> So far much of my losses have been buffered by bear ETFs - although , you could also lose your shirt with these bad boys.
> 
> When the media starts reporting that your bank deposits may be at risk, either we are at the bottom (i.e., fear is at its maximum and it's time to be a contrarian - buy buy buy!) or things are about to get a whole lot worse. See here. The article was posted before the announcement that the U.S. has agreed to raise the debt limit, but nevertheless, still quite frightening...
> 
> I agree - diversification in these times is best. Time to buy some silver...HUZ! White hot silver.


and then market makes a jab and gets back into the channel and goes higher... you can't time the market, you might sell and a week later it will recover, yes all indicators show it will go down, but that's what the big boys are counting on


----------



## blin10

KaeJS said:


> Would like to buy MFC, but the yield is still too low. I want to buy under $14. I also want to buy SLF under $25.
> 
> I may buy SLF with some margin, but only because the dividend is greater than the interest payments on my margin. Cant quite justify that with MFC, just in case things stay sour for a while... but 100 shares of each would be nice. 100 SLF at 25, 100 MFC at 14.


i actually picked up some slf today, will pick up more at 23.6 if it goes there


----------



## Abha

God damn Ford and their stupid %*#%*#% stock. 

Anyone needing a car, please go buy a Ford so you can maybe move this stinker of a stock.


----------



## Argonaut

Abha said:


> God damn Ford and their stupid %*#%*#% stock.
> 
> Anyone needing a car, please go buy a Ford so you can maybe move this stinker of a stock.


I'm planning on buying a Mustang, actually. If the S&P 500 keeps tanking and gold keeps rising I can just buy one outright with my options, haha.


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> I'm planning on buying a Mustang, actually. If the S&P 500 keeps tanking and gold keeps rising I can just buy one outright with my options, haha.


Okay good. If you could let them sell you all the extras that would be swell. Maybe buy a few extra mats as well for good measure.

Every time I look at the stock price of Ford, a little piece of me dies.


----------



## Yudansha

There should almost be a forum titled: "My Worst Trade EVER"....
Mine would be sitting on VXX position for months, diligently DCA'ing finally almost breaking even and then selling on that huge blip Monday for mediocre loss and then buying some XIV only to have it absolutely reverse in an hour. I actually laughed it hurt so bad.


----------



## andrewf

DCAing VXX is an excellent way to lose a lot of money.

As for XIV, this volatility event will pass. It's a good idea to keep some cash to buy for opportunities such as this.


----------



## Abha

andrewf said:


> DCAing VXX is an excellent way to lose a lot of money.
> 
> As for XIV, this volatility event will pass. It's a good idea to keep some cash to buy for opportunities such as this.


Dollar Cost Averaging VXX is definitely the riskiest thing I've read on here so far.

Thank god you got out with a modest loss.


----------



## kcowan

Abha said:


> God damn Ford and their stupid %*#%*#% stock.
> 
> Anyone needing a car, please go buy a Ford so you can maybe move this stinker of a stock.


Did you hear about the recall of their trucks?!


----------



## Abha

kcowan said:


> Did you hear about the recall of their trucks?!


I'm not worried about recalls. Show me a manufacturer that doesn't recall their vehicles.

I'm more concerned with the "story"

This is a stock that screams value and growth and yet it is languishing. I know I'm not not the only one suffering because of Ford as a lot of my peers who I really respect have this in their portfolios as well.

Everyone has that one stock that frustrates the hell out them and this is mine.


----------



## Belguy

Well, I don't have that single stock that frustrates the hell out of me because I invest only in funds which frustrate the hell out of me!!


----------



## Belguy

Is it just me who is getting smoked in the markets again today

The underlying cause of the chaos is the European debt crisis highlighted by the current problems in Italy and Spain.

This situation will not be resolved in our lifetimes because, basically, God himself could not solve this problem!!!


----------



## Jungle

WHOA Tsx down 400 points. COngrats those in GOLD.


----------



## Abha

My losses are now in the 5 figure range. Even my gold plays are down for some asinine reason that I can't figure out.

Oh well. At least I'm not trading on Margin


----------



## Belguy

I just checked the markets.



Time to sign up for the food bank!!! There should be plenty of other stock investors in the lineup!!


----------



## HaroldCrump

^ BG, you shouldn't.
Today is a perfect day for a retired gentleman like yourself to grab a case of chilled beer and go fishing on the lake


----------



## Betzy

My Buy trigger finger is very anxious, anyone else thinking this is a great buy opp?


----------



## Abha

I would wait to see some upside movement before committing cash at this point.

We could just as easily go down another 5 - 8%


----------



## doitnow!

Belguy said:


> I just checked the markets.
> 
> 
> 
> Time to sign up for the food bank!!! There should be plenty of other stock investors in the lineup!!


What about us broad based ETF buy and hold investors, which lineup do we join?


----------



## SixesAndSevens

doitnow! said:


> What about us broad based ETF buy and hold investors, which lineup do we join?


the index and passive ETF investors are getting wiped out.
slowly but surely.
index investing is getting you nowhere fast.
the only gain you can expect are the flow through dividends which are what 3% to 4% at most?
the losses on indexes more than offset those small dividends.

it is amazing how the financial industry has reinvented itself by convincing small investors that instead of mutual funds buy ETFs.
_it's the same people selling the same thing_
Old wine new bottle eh?

if you have been sticking with indexes you are now set back 5+ years.
keep doing this and soon you will be set back 10+ years.
some indexes like NASDAQ and Nikkei are already set back 10+ years.

insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result each time.


----------



## blin10

SixesAndSevens said:


> the index and passive ETF investors are getting wiped out.
> slowly but surely.
> index investing is getting you nowhere fast.
> the only gain you can expect are the flow through dividends which are what 3% to 4% at most?
> the losses on indexes more than offset those small dividends.
> 
> it is amazing how the financial industry has reinvented itself by convincing small investors that instead of mutual funds buy ETFs.
> _it's the same people selling the same thing_
> Old wine new bottle eh?
> 
> if you have been sticking with indexes you are now set back 5+ years.
> keep doing this and soon you will be set back 10+ years.
> some indexes like NASDAQ and Nikkei are already set back 10+ years.
> 
> insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result each time.


+1...


----------



## Abha

It's not picnic for us active traders either.


----------



## Four Pillars

SixesAndSevens said:


> the index and passive ETF investors are getting wiped out.
> slowly but surely.
> index investing is getting you nowhere fast.
> the only gain you can expect are the flow through dividends which are what 3% to 4% at most?
> the losses on indexes more than offset those small dividends.
> 
> it is amazing how the financial industry has reinvented itself by convincing small investors that instead of mutual funds buy ETFs.
> _it's the same people selling the same thing_
> Old wine new bottle eh?
> 
> if you have been sticking with indexes you are now set back 5+ years.
> keep doing this and soon you will be set back 10+ years.
> some indexes like NASDAQ and Nikkei are already set back 10+ years.
> 
> insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result each time.


-12 You don't have a clue about what you are talking about.

Here are my index investing returns for the last several years. I'm happy with my results. What are your returns?

Year Return(%) 
2006 14.7 
2007 4.1 
2008 -17.0 
2009 20.24 
2010 7.3


----------



## Argonaut

Abha said:


> It's not picnic for us active traders either.


It's a picnic buying puts in the S&P 500. A teddy _bear _picnic, in fact. This has literally made all of the moves I've made this year irrelevant by comparison.


----------



## SixesAndSevens

Four Pillars said:


> -12 You don't have a clue about what you are talking about.
> 
> Here are my index investing returns for the last several years. I'm happy with my results.


i know very well what I am talking about mate.
You on the other hand obviously never calculate your true rate of return.
Here is why:


> Year Return(%)
> 2006 14.7
> 2007 4.1
> 2008 -17.0
> 2009 20.24
> 2010 7.3


ok so we assume you started with $100 on 12/31/2005.
based on those rates of return your investment on 12/31/2010 is worth exactly $127.86.
that works out to an average annual compounded rate of return of 5.02%

and you are happy with it? you could have bought a 5 year GIC in 2005 that returned 5%.
I know because I had one that matured last december @ 5%.

now this doesn't even count the losses that you have had since this year.
at this point i'd think you are down at least 10% from the start of this year.
your CAGR as of today is probably less than 4%.

in other words your return is _exactly_ the same as the dividend yield on indexes.

I rest my case your worship.

P.S I have nothing personal against you or any of the passive indexers. just pointing out two fact : one that ETFs and index funds are the reincarnation of the same mutual fund industry and its henchmen. two, these are particularly bad times to be investing in indexes. some index investors like Nekkei, Eurozone and NASDAQ are today lower than they were 10 years ago.
TSX, DOW and all are getting to 5 year low levels. soon they will be lower to their 10 year levels.
you are going nowhere fast.


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> It's a picnic buying puts in the S&P 500. A teddy _bear _picnic, in fact. This has literally made all of the moves I've made this year irrelevant by comparison.


Those moves have probably made your year. 

I'm not done just yet. My losses are coming via long term holdings (Goldman Sachs, Ford etc)

In the meantime I am jumping in and out of things by the second.


----------



## Belguy

And so, SixesandSevens, tell us how long you have been investing in the markets?

What exactly have been your long term returns since you seem to have figured everything out and obviously know one heck of a lot more than any of we naive index investors?

Maybe you should be in the financial advisory business if you are not already!!

Or, have you considered writing a book about your discovery?


----------



## Addy

Betzy said:


> My Buy trigger finger is very anxious, anyone else thinking this is a great buy opp?


It's getting there... not quite what I would call a great buy opportunity... maybe next week if the market keeps dipping daily the way it has been.

Any clue why this is all happening? What in particular is causing it?


----------



## doitnow!

SixesAndSevens said:


> i know very well what I am talking about mate.
> You on the other hand obviously never calculate your true rate of return.
> Here is why:
> ok so we assume you started with $100 on 12/31/2005.
> based on those rates of return your investment on 12/31/2010 is worth exactly $127.86.
> that works out to an average annual compounded rate of return of 5.02%
> 
> and you are happy with it? you could have bought a 5 year GIC in 2005 that returned 5%.
> I know because I had one that matured last december @ 5%.
> 
> now this doesn't even count the losses that you have had since this year.
> at this point i'd think you are down at least 10% from the start of this year.
> your CAGR as of today is probably less than 4%.
> 
> in other words your return is _exactly_ the same as the dividend yield on indexes.
> 
> I rest my case your worship.
> 
> P.S I have nothing personal against you or any of the passive indexers. just pointing out two fact : one that ETFs and index funds are the reincarnation of the same mutual fund industry and its henchmen. two, these are particularly bad times to be investing in indexes. some index investors like Nekkei, Eurozone and NASDAQ are today lower than they were 10 years ago.
> TSX, DOW and all are getting to 5 year low levels. soon they will be lower to their 10 year levels.
> you are going nowhere fast.


Ok, I get it. 
Question: what do you recommend is better option than index investing? What do you do? 
I ask cause I am new at this, worried and thinking of selling all my ETF's.


----------



## fatcat

> Any clue why this is all happening? What in particular is causing it?


 europe ... which is on the precipice of a gigantic meltdown .....


----------



## Abha

fatcat said:


> europe ... which is on the precipice of a gigantic meltdown .....


More specifically: Spain & Italy


----------



## Four Pillars

@sixes & sevens

Well, I said I was happy - not ecstatic.  I estimate that my real return is about 3.0% which fits in with my long term investment goals. Yes, I would like it a bit higher, but 3% is still in the range of "ok".

The fact is that 5 years is not necessarily a meaningful time period so my rate of return isn't that meaningful either. That it coincides with a five year GIC bought five years ago is coincidence. You are also assuming I haven't made any deposits or withdrawals.

I don't know what my return is this year, since I only calculate it once a year. I can assure you it is nowhere near -10%.

How is 5%/yr, 3% real/yr "going nowhere fast"? I call it getting wealthy at a reasonable pace.

And you didn't answer my question - what was your return over that time period (or whatever period you have records for).


----------



## Argonaut

Abha said:


> Those moves have probably made your year.
> 
> I'm not done just yet. My losses are coming via long term holdings (Goldman Sachs, Ford etc)
> 
> In the meantime I am jumping in and out of things by the second.


I'm thinking I'll take my profits either Friday after the unemployment data comes in, or on Monday. The Federal Reserve has a meeting on Tuesday, and if Bernanke hints at stimulus the markets could rebound substantially. If he doesn't I'll take another (smaller) put position and start over. With Congress out to lunch for the summer, and Bernanke gone for a while, the bears will have free reign.


----------



## webber22

I wouldn't be buying anything just yet, if anyone's been watching the orders, none of the Big boys are biting just yet, just HEAVY selling in the mornings  Hopefully this hasn't knocked off any of the coach potatoes from their sofas


----------



## Abha

Alright guys....here we go.......MARGIN CALL TIME


----------



## sensfan15

What a great buying opportunity. I got 5k to inject...but will wait for the jobs report tomorrow. Another 3% drop would be great!


----------



## marina628

I think tomorrow going to be more losses.Everyone gets home tonight watches the news will push panic buttons to sell tomorrow.But now what to buy ?


----------



## Addy

marina628 said:


> I think tomorrow going to be more losses.Everyone gets home tonight watches the news will push panic buttons to sell tomorrow.But now what to buy ?


We're preparing to move provinces next week... but I still want to get in on the buy... hopefully things dive down again tomorrow and Monday so I can get in on some deals. I have the same question as Marina.. what to buy?


----------



## Kidbrosweets

Addy said:


> We're preparing to move provinces next week... but I still want to get in on the buy... hopefully things dive down again tomorrow and Monday so I can get in on some deals. I have the same question as Marina.. what to buy?


to add to the question what would Buffett buy?


----------



## Jungle

Wow.. I still can't believe today. You would think this would happen if the US defaulted. 

Let's PRAY the jobs report tomorrow brings some of this back..


----------



## SixesAndSevens

Four Pillars said:


> The fact is that 5 years is not necessarily a meaningful time period so my rate of return isn't that meaningful either. That it coincides with a five year GIC bought five years ago is coincidence.


Not entirely. you (and by you I mean pure index etfers like you) have been getting the dividend yield.
your best case scenario is maybe a 1% above the dividend yield.
the dividend yield of large cap etfs are usually at or just above the inflation rate.
inflation is running at 2% and dividend yields are 3.5% or so.


> You are also assuming I haven't made any deposits or withdrawals.


but that is immaterial. the rate of return is the rate of return.
you can certainly make your portfolio grow by injecting money continously but it doesn't change the ROR.
just as QE injections don't change the fundamental GDP growth rate 


> How is 5%/yr, 3% real/yr "going nowhere fast"? I call it getting wealthy at a reasonable pace.


so you are truly and honestly happy with 3% real rate of return?
but why bother? why not just buy a rolling set of 5 year GIC. that will earn you just under 3% over the long run without any of the heartburn and risk?


> And you didn't answer my question - what was your return over that time period (or whatever period you have records for).


i can feel the sarcasm oozing 
i think i have explained by approach before on other threads.
no matter. my approach is not rocket science.

I have two tiers of investments. one is a rolling set of 5 year GICS at preferred rates.
i think i am a bit older than you young stallions here.
that allows me to get preferred rates for GIC and term deposits at my bank and through my broker.
i can usually get either the same or 50 pts. higher than the best bank posted rate.
the second tier is my stock investing.
there i only buy when there is a deep deep buying opportunity to buy solid companies at deep bargain prices.
such opportunities come only once in 5 years or so.
at that time i take free cash and gic roll overs to go all in and invest big in those opportunities.
some of those opportunities in recent time were buying BMO at less than $30.
buying BNS in early $20 range.
buying SAP around $20 was another huge success. that stock has more than doubled, not even counting the dividends.

going a little further back i also bought carefully selected tech stocks after the dot com crash in early 2002.
mainly IBM and MSFT but a couple of other ones that didn't work out.

my returns up until a few months ago were nearly 20% CAGR (18.8% to be correct).
I was up over 20% earlier this year.
after the crash of last 4 weeks i'm probably in the 16% range but still quite a bit more than what index etfs return on a 5 or 10 year basis.

not everything has worked out (yet) of course.
I made a big bet on Uranium after the fukushima earthquate and while I'm off the lows it hasn't made the profits that i need.

I don't invest unless there is a deep deep opportunity in major companies.
that means i'm out of the roulette game most of the time.
that saves me from all these song and dance games in the markets.
times like these i just roll my gics and find other things to amuse my time


----------



## peterk

Good thing I didn't look at the news BEFORE I wrote the exam that I likely failed this morning... Double whammy day


----------



## Jon_Snow

Been monitoring the bloodbath via my Blackberry while toiling on a hot, dusty jobsite (yeah, its finally heated up here on the left coast). Can't wait to get home to my desktop so I can chat more easily about todays carnage.


----------



## doitnow!

SixesAndSevens said:


> Not entirely. you (and by you I mean pure index etfers like you) have been getting the dividend yield.
> your best case scenario is maybe a 1% above the dividend yield.
> the dividend yield of large cap etfs are usually at or just above the inflation rate.
> inflation is running at 2% and dividend yields are 3.5% or so.
> but that is immaterial. the rate of return is the rate of return.
> you can certainly make your portfolio grow by injecting money continously but it doesn't change the ROR.
> just as QE injections don't change the fundamental GDP growth rate
> so you are truly and honestly happy with 3% real rate of return?
> but why bother? why not just buy a rolling set of 5 year GIC. that will earn you just under 3% over the long run without any of the heartburn and risk?
> i can feel the sarcasm oozing
> i think i have explained by approach before on other threads.
> no matter. my approach is not rocket science.
> 
> I have two tiers of investments. one is a rolling set of 5 year GICS at preferred rates.
> i think i am a bit older than you young stallions here.
> that allows me to get preferred rates for GIC and term deposits at my bank and through my broker.
> i can usually get either the same or 50 pts. higher than the best bank posted rate.
> the second tier is my stock investing.
> there i only buy when there is a deep deep buying opportunity to buy solid companies at deep bargain prices.
> such opportunities come only once in 5 years or so.
> at that time i take free cash and gic roll overs to go all in and invest big in those opportunities.
> some of those opportunities in recent time were buying BMO at less than $30.
> buying BNS in early $20 range.
> buying SAP around $20 was another huge success. that stock has more than doubled, not even counting the dividends.
> 
> going a little further back i also bought carefully selected tech stocks after the dot com crash in early 2002.
> mainly IBM and MSFT but a couple of other ones that didn't work out.
> 
> my returns up until a few months ago were nearly 20% CAGR (18.8% to be correct).
> I was up over 20% earlier this year.
> after the crash of last 4 weeks i'm probably in the 16% range but still quite a bit more than what index etfs return on a 5 or 10 year basis.
> 
> not everything has worked out (yet) of course.
> I made a big bet on Uranium after the fukushima earthquate and while I'm off the lows it hasn't made the profits that i need.
> 
> I don't invest unless there is a deep deep opportunity in major companies.
> that means i'm out of the roulette game most of the time.
> that saves me from all these song and dance games in the markets.
> times like these i just roll my gics and find other things to amuse my time


Mixed reactions when I read your post. On the one hand I wish I had acquired sufficient knowledge of the markets and investing to accomplish what you have and on the other I am a little put off by what appears to be a gloating and speaking from a pedestal to us poor (literally this past week) etf investors. 

I wish I had the expertise in this area to poke a few holes in your approach despite the fact that I do admit that it sounds pretty good to me. I am hoping that the more experience among us etf'rs will challenge your approach but it's hard to argue with success.

Perhaps you can join us down here at the bottom of the mountain long enough to share some of your wisdom. For example which companies to buy and if we are now in one of those once in 5 year opportunities you speak of. Finally, what advice have you for those of us who don't want or cannot wait 5 years to benefit from your lucrative approach?


----------



## kcowan

Is this the double dip? I am thinking that the mediocre GDP results started it. I think it is over-reacting and has developed a momentum of its own. It is truly exciting!

I have a down bet on Manulife and this is bound to help that. Central Falls RI has declared bankruptcy. Claiming the civil service DB pensions are the root cause. No surprise there.

Keep your powder dry. But keep your stick on the ice...


----------



## SixesAndSevens

i am not gloating. at all. apologies if it came across that way.
i'm simply not an index believer.
in my experience most folks can do better.

regarding my approach of course you can "poke holes" in it.
there is no need for you to assemble your indexing cohorts and treat this like a shouting match.
neither do i claim this to be a scientific theory that you need to have peer reviewed and lab tested.
i will be the first to admit this is not a perfect approach. i have said before many of my bets haven't worked out.
there is no perfect approach in my experience.

i have arrived at this approach after years of being taken for a ride by the mutual fund and financial services industry and living through many market see-saws at the end of which i was back where i started. including the Nikkei see-saw through the 1990s.

my apologies if you found my tone condescending. it was not intentional.


----------



## larry81

anyone else having fun


----------



## andrewf

SixesAndSevens said:


> i am not gloating. at all. apologies if it came across that way.
> i'm simply not an index believer.
> in my experience most folks can do better.
> 
> regarding my approach of course you can "poke holes" in it.
> there is no need for you to assemble your indexing cohorts and treat this like a shouting match.
> neither do i claim this to be a scientific theory that you need to have peer reviewed and lab tested.
> i will be the first to admit this is not a perfect approach. i have said before many of my bets haven't worked out.
> there is no perfect approach in my experience.
> 
> i have arrived at this approach after years of being taken for a ride by the mutual fund and financial services industry and living through many market see-saws at the end of which i was back where i started. including the Nikkei see-saw through the 1990s.
> 
> my apologies if you found my tone condescending. it was not intentional.


It's literally impossible for everyone to beat the index. Most money managers can't. What evidence do you have to support your position?


----------



## KaeJS

Selling all my positions tomorrow except for CGL and TD.

Will be taking a risk and shorting like mad tomorrow. Hoping for another horrible jobs report and more turmoil in Italy.

I have lost 27% of my portfolio this year after today.

Desperate times call for Desperate measures.

Until next time, see you all on the short side and hopefully I will catch the wave upward with you guys with cash.


----------



## Banalanal

I don't get why people sell after a big drop. Isn't that what most people do and hence most are buying when markets are good and selling when they are bad which means you load up when it's expensive and sell when you lose. No plans to sell, only thing that crosses my mind is should I buy more...


----------



## KaeJS

Only selling because I bought on margin. If I didn't, I wouldn't worry one bit. The plan is to short friday and monday, then get out and sit on the sidelines until I see some more positive/bullish news or activity, then I can deploy some cash again.

Essentially, I am going to try to recreate my losses by buying on margin and shorting the marking for two days with a huge amount of margin. If I am correct, and the markets proceed downward, well, then Kudos to myself.

If I am wrong, well - **** on me. I learned another lesson.


----------



## donald

Are most of you guys really selling?i realize the carneige,and im getting hit like a red headed step child but is this really the time to sell your longs?im about 90% invested,got a few k in the wings(not nearly enough to get excited about).


Ive got about 20-25 yrs till i want access to my portfolio(im 32)on a scale of 1-10 on the fear gauge,what are we sitting @ here?This damn jobs report is going to take the panties right off,im thinking sell off in a huge way.


----------



## doitnow!

SixesAndSevens said:


> i am not gloating. at all. apologies if it came across that way.
> i'm simply not an index believer.
> in my experience most folks can do better.
> 
> regarding my approach of course you can "poke holes" in it.
> there is no need for you to assemble your indexing cohorts and treat this like a shouting match.
> neither do i claim this to be a scientific theory that you need to have peer reviewed and lab tested.
> i will be the first to admit this is not a perfect approach. i have said before many of my bets haven't worked out.
> there is no perfect approach in my experience.
> 
> i have arrived at this approach after years of being taken for a ride by the mutual fund and financial services industry and living through many market see-saws at the end of which i was back where i started. including the Nikkei see-saw through the 1990s.
> 
> my apologies if you found my tone condescending. it was not intentional.


No worries.

I am not ready to give up on my etf's, it's been a rough 1st couple of months and especially couple of days where the losses are over 5%. 

However, I am in this for the long run and would like to compliment my portfolio with a good dividend buy and hold approach. Essentially buying 5 or 6 good stocks and to one day (5 to 10 years from now living off the dividends). 

From your years of experience what is your advice for someone starting out with zero knowledge of stocks: What to read, buy and when.


----------



## Belguy

And so, it sounds like it wasn't only me who got smoked in the markets today!!

I always like to quote my dear old departed Dad at times like this. He always warned me to stay out of the stock market!!

What I especially don't like about the modern day economy is how things are so closely tied together worldwide. When something bad happens economically or politically in any part of the world, it adversely affects markets around the world. This can be anything from bank failures to credit problems and everything and anything in between.

Even the possibility of a coup in Swaziland can send modern day markets around the world into a dive!!

And so, I am asking myself again if this is a game that I want to be in or if it is time to heed the advice of my dear old Dad to stay out of the stock market.

All too often, we grow too soon olde and too late schmart.


----------



## doitnow!

Belguy said:


> And so, it sounds like it wasn't only me who got smoked in the markets today!!
> 
> I always like to quote my dear old departed Dad at times like this. He always warned me to stay out of the stock market!!
> 
> What I especially don't like about the modern day economy is how things are so closely tied together worldwide. When something bad happens economically or politically in any part of the world, it adversely affects markets around the world. This can be anything from bank failures to credit problems and everything and anything in between.
> 
> Even the possibility of a coup in Swaziland can send modern day markets around the world into a dive!!
> 
> And so, I am asking myself again if this is a game that I want to be in or if it is time to heed the advice of my dear old Dad to stay out of the stock market.
> 
> All too often, we grow too soon olde and too late schmart.


Hey Belguy, what happened to your buy and hold philosophy? Sound like you maybe changing your tune?


----------



## Belguy

It's just that I am not too thrilled that we have to live October 2008 all over again and so soon! However, it is what it is and I am a buy-and-holder because I do not want to be a stock picker and a market timer.


----------



## larry81

I am planning to do some buying tommorow and add to my basket of ETF.

VTI/VEA/VWO are all down 10%+ in the last month.

I will also add 5k TFSA XRE.


----------



## Abha

Belguy said:


> It's just that I am not too thrilled that we have to live October 2008 all over again and so soon! However, it is what it is and I am a buy-and-holder because I do not want to be a stock picker and a market timer.


Hang in there buddy. You'll think this was all a bad dream in a few months.


----------



## Argonaut

KaeJS said:


> Selling all my positions tomorrow except for CGL and TD.
> 
> Will be taking a risk and shorting like mad tomorrow. Hoping for another horrible jobs report and more turmoil in Italy.
> 
> I have lost 27% of my portfolio this year after today.
> 
> Desperate times call for Desperate measures.
> 
> Until next time, see you all on the short side and hopefully I will catch the wave upward with you guys with cash.


I would say sell enough to avoid a margin call but keep your favourite positions. Buying put options is safer than straight up shorting in my opinion, with the former your losses are finite and with the latter your losses could be infinite. I am going to be selling my put positions soon, because I don't want to get burned by Bernanke coming out to play on Tuesday. If he doesn't say anything about QE3, full steam ahead on the puts.


----------



## KaeJS

^ Like I said, I may keep TD and CGL, but I really, really want to take this risk.

Sure, I could get seriously smoked (and burnt to a crisp! ) but lets consider my age and the current market sentiment. If I can get in at 9:30 tomorrow, and a bad jobs report comes out, I will be laughing.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> ^ Like I said, I may keep TD and CGL, but I really, really want to take this risk.
> 
> Sure, I could get seriously smoked (and burnt to a crisp! ) but lets consider my age and the current market sentiment. If I can get in at 9:30 tomorrow, and a bad jobs report comes out, I will be laughing.


The market can be an expensive place to learn a lesson


----------



## Abha

Go big or go home.

Good luck tomorrow KaeJS. I'll be rooting for you


----------



## Argonaut

Jobs report is at 8:30AM Eastern time, so the market will already know on the opening bell. I think the numbers will be a bit worse than expected. The market will tank another 2-3%. If you want to gamble, go for it. As long as you don't short more than you can cover if the market pops.

I wish the Italy ETF (EWI) has more liquidity in its options. That's a good bet for some puts right there. Government officials raiding the Moody's and S&P offices? Haha. Welcome back, Mussolini.


----------



## SixesAndSevens

andrewf said:


> It's literally impossible for everyone to beat the index. Most money managers can't. What evidence do you have to support your position?


of course I realize _everyone_ can't beat the index.
the so called money managers that don't beat the index aren't losing their money, they are losing YOUR money.
isn't there a stat somewhere that greater than 90% of all trades these days are by large institutions among themselves. that is they are on both sides of the trade?
and that is why on average they don't beat the index.
but it is possible for one single individual sitting patiently in his basement or den to carefully invest and beat the index.
let the large money managers and institutions rip out each others throats trying to beat the index.
in the meantime a small group of patient diligent investors can do better than those large players most of which are trailing the indexes.

i don't have large volumes of statistical data to argue against these PHD guys.
I have only my own experience over 10+ years of going it alone and the 10+ years before that of trusting these money managers that you so like.
I haven't even played with options either. based on what I read here it seems it is possible to add another few % points of return by doing options well.
maybe that will be my next project. for the next 10 years.


----------



## blin10

doitnow! said:


> No worries.
> 
> I am not ready to give up on my etf's, it's been a rough 1st couple of months and especially couple of days where the losses are over 5%.
> 
> However, I am in this for the long run and would like to compliment my portfolio with a good dividend buy and hold approach. Essentially buying 5 or 6 good stocks and to one day (5 to 10 years from now living off the dividends).
> 
> From your years of experience what is your advice for someone starting out with zero knowledge of stocks: What to read, buy and when.


imo reading books about stock market is a complete waste of time, the best way is go learn technical analysis http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school (watch every video from http://freeonlinetradingeducation.com/trading-videos-archive?Itemid=11&catid=3&start=604 ) and just watch market day to day ... getting burned is a name of the game as well, that's when you learn the best lessons... dividends are a good strategy as well since if the market tanks you will still get payed some money to wait it out, there are a ton of companies such as pwe, pgh, bte, slf, ry, bmo, pwf, cve, erf, pvx, cos, ta, pow, etc.... you can go to finviz.com and screen for dividends


----------



## davext

Will a poor jobs report even mean anything? I think we've been hit hard enough over the last 10 days. 

We need a blow out jobs report and we're not gonna get it.

I did get smoked today, but most of my stocks are in dividend paying stocks. I can't believe how hard IBM got hit, accounting for more than 50 points of the 500 point drop in the DOW. There were enough people saying how good of company IBM is but nothing is safe. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think diversifying into emerging market or European ETFs is any kind of safe haven. 

We need Europeans buying Italian bonds, and QE3 from the States. 

The only good thing that came out of the day was the US dollar going up. I finally had a chance to sell some of my US dollars which is how I'm paid for my job.


----------



## canadian_investor

Argonaut said:


> It's a picnic buying puts in the S&P 500.


Are these puts against a specific S&P ETF like on VOO?
Or is it possible to buy and sell puts directly against the S&P index?
can you explain?


----------



## Argonaut

canadian_investor said:


> Are these puts against a specific S&P ETF like on VOO?
> Or is it possible to buy and sell puts directly against the S&P index?
> can you explain?


Buying puts in SPY. The ETF probably has the most liquid options in the entire world.


----------



## doitnow!

blin10 said:


> imo reading books about stock market is a complete waste of time, the best way is go learn technical analysis http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school (watch every video from http://freeonlinetradingeducation.com/trading-videos-archive?Itemid=11&catid=3&start=604 ) and just watch market day to day ... getting burned is a name of the game as well, that's when you learn the best lessons... dividends are a good strategy as well since if the market tanks you will still get payed some money to wait it out, there are a ton of companies such as pwe, pgh, bte, slf, ry, bmo, pwf, cve, erf, pvx, cos, ta, pow, etc.... you can go to finviz.com and screen for dividends


Sounds good, thanks, I don't relish a lot of reading as there is a lot of "filler" in many of these books.


----------



## gibor365

doitnow! said:


> Sounds good, thanks, I don't relish a lot of reading as there is a lot of "filler" in many of these books.


On other hand, major ETF like XIC, XIU, VTI etc hold a lot of those stocks and as a result also have dividends?

If you are looking for real dividends maybe better to buy ZWB, HEX who giving more than 10% dividends?


----------



## doitnow!

gibor said:


> On other hand, major ETF like XIC, XIU, VTI etc hold a lot of those stocks and as a result also have dividends?
> 
> If you are looking for real dividends maybe better to buy ZWB, HEX who giving more than 10% dividends?


Isn't it better to buy a few well chosen companies, say 5 or 6, when it comes to dividend investing? 

From what I hear on this forum, dividend stock investors are not feeling the pain, at least that's what they are saying.


----------



## Abha

doitnow! said:


> Isn't it better to buy a few well chosen companies, say 5 or 6, when it comes to dividend investing?
> 
> From what I hear on this forum, dividend stock investors are not feeling the pain, at least that's what they are saying.


If they're not feeling pain today then I need to jump in with that strategy.

Except for short sellers there were no winners today.


----------



## gibor365

doitnow! said:


> Isn't it better to buy a few well chosen companies, say 5 or 6, when it comes to dividend investing?
> 
> From what I hear on this forum, dividend stock investors are not feeling the pain, at least that's what they are saying.


They just saying...


----------



## Belguy

In defence of index investing, and just for the record, here are the TEN YEAR annualized percentage returns of various iShares ETF's as of June 30 after all of the market ups and downs over those tumultuous years:

XIU: +7.90%
XIC: +7.85%
XFN: +8.93%
XEG: +13.13%
XMD: +9.00%

Conclusion: Try to turn off the short term market noise and focus on the long term and stay invested. Have a nice sleep!!


----------



## donald

A good us dividend company-ko-coca-cola,Warren buffet was asked once what advice he would give a 13yr old kid,his two answers were invest in ko and higher education,Ko or for that matter pepsi are both soild div payers,If you were picking only 5 or 6 soild companies,throw in a suger and water stock,think buffet still has a massive holding in ko,also a oil major like cvx,xom...those would be 2 soild american div stocks,throw in a canadian bank like bns or td,medical company maybe a abt or a jnj,a consumer like pg or kimberly clark....i think you could very while do better than a index fund.(over a extended time)


----------



## Abha

http://sadguysontradingfloors.tumblr.com/


----------



## Yudansha

Abha said:


> http://sadguysontradingfloors.tumblr.com/


^ I needed that.


----------



## donald

What about the pe/ratios...dont forget this has got to be close to buy signals for institutions?maybe 2 weeks from now will have a thread was it just me who rallied in the market today!!...throwing that out there.


----------



## Abha

We are oversold on every metric I use. That being said, I really do believe that technical indicators are useless in these markets.

There's far too much fear and volatility to be using support and resistance levels. That's just my opinion though


----------



## Mockingbird

KaeJS said:


> ^ Like I said, I may keep TD and CGL, but I really, really want to take this risk.
> 
> Sure, I could get seriously smoked (and burnt to a crisp! ) but lets consider my age and the current market sentiment. If I can get in at 9:30 tomorrow, and a bad jobs report comes out, I will be laughing.


If you want to be a trader, you need to understand the risk for every position you take in the market - regardless of your age, portfolio size, or even the market sentiment. Trading is all about understanding and managing risk.

On a side note: Contrary to many people's beliefs, stupidity (of not able to mitigate risk) causes people to lose arms and legs in the market, not the leverage itself.

My 2c.

MB


----------



## Mockingbird

Abha said:


> We are oversold on every metric I use. That being said, I really do believe that technical indicators are useless in these markets.
> 
> There's far too much fear and volatility to be using support and resistance levels. That's just my opinion though


They are just "zones". And some are wider than others. They are not horizontal lines where everything has to stop or reverse. The traders are interested in the price action around these areas in order to make an informed decision on the market direction.

MB


----------



## sensfan15

All eyes on the job report coming out at 8:30AM ET...


----------



## Belguy

Aside from the question of how much lower can it go, is the question about how long will it take to gain back whatever losses we do incur--Months? Years?

I can handle the sudden losses. It's the potentially long, slow grind back in a sluggish economy that concerns me.


----------



## Jon_Snow

U.S. jobs report surprisingly decent.... might be a turnaround day as futures are spiking higher.


----------



## KaeJS

^ Decent considering last months 18,000.

Regardless, 117,000 jobs isnt enough. I say market still drops.

Edit: 

"The unemployment rate fell partly because some unemployed workers stopped looking for work. That means they are no longer counted as unemployed."

Edit #2: Hmm.... Markets are all mixed now. Some stocks are bidding up higher. Maybe market doesnt drop


----------



## Argonaut

Markets are giving up some of the gains they had at the opening. Good thing I didn't sell my puts at the opening like a noob. Will keep watching.


----------



## larry81

in the red


----------



## Mike59

I keep my eye on small caps in times like this hoping to pick up a bargain when momentum shifts...

XCS is down 4.88% already today, yikes! I envy those with a stomach strong enough to buy and hold the indexes


----------



## Jon_Snow

Wow... Market is a like a yo-yo this morning.


----------



## dogcom

Until something changes like QE3 I wouldn't be looking for bargains but instead trading those bargains. If you don't like to trade then hold on to your cash for now. For me I am simply holding XTR and losing a little money but not a great amount.


----------



## larry81

Did some shopping this morning:

162 VTI	@$61.85 (NONREG)
114 VWO	@$43.85 (NONREG)
177	VEA	@$33.70 (NONREG)
358 XRE	@$14.20 (TFSA)

SEE YOU IN 30 YEARS ETF'S


----------



## Argonaut

Kae, I hope you made your super rash swashbuckling trade. Would love for you to have turned a bad situation good. If you haven't made it yet, it might be too late.


----------



## Jungle

Need some advice:

We are getting killed on XIC in our SM portfolio. I started positions when TSX was about 13,400. I bought 150 shares yesterday, to help average down-That brought cost base to about. 20.73. (from a cost of 21.00) 

As of right now, it's down 7-8%
Problem is, we have a lot of shares, 930. I only have about 20k left for margin, due to 19k in purchases yesterday. I can pay this back through payments on our mortgage, using the HELOC and a 0% credit card. 


Should I average down on XIC?


----------



## blin10

Jungle said:


> Need some advice:
> 
> We are getting killed on XIC in our SM portfolio. I started positions when TSX was about 13,400. I bought 150 shares yesterday, to help average down-That brought cost base to about. 20.73. (from a cost of 21.00)
> 
> As of right now, it's down 7-8%
> Problem is, we have a lot of shares, 930. I only have about 20k left for margin, due to 19k in purchases yesterday. I can pay this back through payments on our mortgage, using the HELOC and a 0% credit card.
> 
> 
> Should I average down on XIC?


it's not the time to average down right now, i would only average down if it'll dip to like 17.5 and then 15.3 ... btw why would you buy that fund anyways?


----------



## el oro

I'd say average down but always keeping enough dry powder if it drops a little further. So decide for yourself how low you think XIC could possibly go and deploy the remaining 19k accordingly. For example if you think 12 is the lowest it will go (or that 12 is an absolute steal), buy at every dollar drop, which is 7 times. 19k/7 = 2.7k deployed every dollar drop. 

Just pick something objective like that so you won't be caught with zero cash while the market is still dropping.


----------



## Jungle

blin10 said:


> it's not the time to average down right now, i would only average down if it'll dip to like 17.5 and then 15.3 ... btw why would you buy that fund anyways?


Are you sure you are talking about XIC? (not xiu) We started using that fund believing that it's too hard to consistantly beat the index picking stocks.


----------



## Jungle

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> I'd say average down but always keeping enough dry powder if it drops a little further. So decide for yourself how low you think XIC could possibly go and deploy the remaining 19k accordingly. For example if you think 12 is the lowest it will go (or that 12 is an absolute steal), buy at every dollar drop, which is 7 times. 19k/7 = 2.7k deployed every dollar drop.
> 
> Just pick something objective like that so you won't be caught with zero cash while the market is still dropping.


Ok thanks. I will remember to leave some cash available. I think I will wait and see how low this goes.


----------



## blin10

Jungle said:


> Are you sure you are talking about XIC? (not xiu) We started using that fund believing that it's too hard to consistantly beat the index picking stocks.


yap xic


----------



## Jungle

So all of our dividend paying stocks are not doing so bad, as a whole, they are sill in the positive. WOuld it make sense to sell XIC at a loss of $1400, to just add the money to our dividend positions?


----------



## doitnow!

XIC killing me! Need other opinions cause I think this pig has a longer tail than I thought and we may be a long way from the end of it. Lost 5k on just over 3100 shares.


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> Kae, I hope you made your super rash swashbuckling trade. Would love for you to have turned a bad situation good. If you haven't made it yet, it might be too late.


I made it 

Earned some dollars there, so I got a little smile on my face.

I sold out of every position I own except CGL, and purchased 300 TZA at 47ish


----------



## Abha

Great job KaeJS. I was really nervous for you when the market started to rally thinking you'd panic sell at a loss.

Way to stick to your guns on this one. Keep at it (but not with 3x ETF's) and you'll recover your losses in no time.


----------



## Belguy

Was it just me who got smoked in the markets this week?


----------



## Abha

Belguy said:


> Was it just me who got smoked in the markets this week?


I don't think anyone was up this week. And if you were, congratulations.


----------



## Belguy

I will have a good night's sleep and then calculate my losses for the past couple of weeks tomorrow. It should be interesting. The stock market is a mug's game!! There are far too many and too frequent man made crises coming one after the other after the other from all parts of the world, all of which affect the markets negatively to make this a good place for the average investor to put his or her hard-earned savings. I think that playing the lottery might be a better bet!! At least you only drop a little bit at a time--not the mega amounts that you can lose in just a few days on the markets--at least on paper. Then, it takes a monkey's age to gain back your losses. As I said, it's a mug's game!!

Buy and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold and maybe ultimately prosper in the next life!!

It's the best rollercoaster ride around!!


----------



## clovis8

I have about %9000 in equities that I may need to liquidate in the next few months to buy a place. I am hoping not to, but my question is should I liquidate now? If the market is going down in the short terms perhaps I need to get out?


----------



## Abha

clovis8 said:


> I have about %9000 in equities that I may need to liquidate in the next few months to buy a place. I am hoping not to, but my question is should I liquidate now? If the market is going down in the short terms perhaps I need to get out?


If you need it in a few months you might as well liquidate now. No point in trying to time the market given the volatile swings in either direction.

If you're up for the risk, maybe wait for a swing to the upside and then cash out, but you'd have to be super quick


----------



## Causalien

clovis8 said:


> I have about %9000 in equities that I may need to liquidate in the next few months to buy a place. I am hoping not to, but my question is should I liquidate now? If the market is going down in the short terms perhaps I need to get out?


Well, if you look at "what are you buying" thread, you can see most of the experienced people buying. While last week most of us were getting our cash ready. I myself bought TSLA and that stock went down more today. I haven't fully committed yet because I am still waiting for QE3 announcement on Tuesday.

Then again, experience doesn't mean jack. Look at John Paulson and Carlos Slim who lost ~7 bil in 4 days.


----------



## canadian gab

*Canadian Dividend found alert*

Hi I have this found but in the last 5 days drop 10%, somebody has a good reason to stay there in spite of the US mess? help always appreciated thanks, Gab


----------



## Belguy

Again, I remind you of the big drop in November 2008 which everyone saw as a buying opportunity but it was followed by four months of further drops, including a bad January 2009, until it finally hit bottom in March 2009.

The buying opportunity was not so great when the big drop occurred in November 2008 but was much better four months later.

Of course, this does not mean that history will repeat itself more or less exactly but it does illustrate that it is not easy to pick a bottom or a near bottom.


----------



## Abha

Causalien said:


> Well, if you look at "what are you buying" thread, you can see most of the experienced people buying. While last week most of us were getting our cash ready. I myself bought TSLA and that stock went down more today. I haven't fully committed yet because I am still waiting for QE3 announcement on Tuesday.
> 
> Then again, experience doesn't mean jack. Look at John Paulson and Carlos Slim who lost ~7 bil in 4 days.


What's 7 billion when you have 80+ billion.


----------



## liquidfinance

Things not good. US downgrades..... I think we have a few months of falls ahead of us with maybe the odd bounce as people keep trying to pick the bottom.

I am going to hold the dividend stocks I currently own but will just be letting the cash and savings accumulate whilst we're in these murky waters.


----------



## Four Pillars

clovis8 said:


> I have about %9000 in equities that I may need to liquidate in the next few months to buy a place. I am hoping not to, but my question is should I liquidate now? If the market is going down in the short terms perhaps I need to get out?


If you need that money in the near future, it should be in a high interest savings account. I would sell ASAP.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I have 100k I can invest immediately. I'm leaning towards investing 25% early next week (not Monday due to S&P downgrade) just in case we are indeed at the bottom of this correction. I have my doubts about this but at least I will have some money in play. The remaining funds (75k) will be ready to be invested if things continue to get cheaper or if things seem to be on the upswing. I don't think I can sit on the sidelines much longer.

I have another 100k locked away in a GIC until FEB... would love to get my hands on these funds now!


----------



## Belguy

Continuing to sit on the sidelines could very well end up being the best thing to do. Time will tell.

One thing for sure is that the markets have a wall of worry to climb if they want to move higher.

Also, I remember posting a few months back the views of Danielle Park, financial advisor and author of 'Juggling Dynamite'. At that time, she had her clients completely out of the stock market and into bonds and cash because she saw all sorts of danger signals ahead for stocks. Maybe some of you might remember the posting. I remember that there were a few responses basically calling into question her approach and suggesting that they were glad that she wasn't managing their money.

I wonder what those posters might think of her financial management skills now??!!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Belguy, I remember that... she did very well for her clients. Good on her.


----------



## zylon

Can we then expect to see a modified tagline?

"Buy, invest with Venable Park, Hold, and Prosper"


----------



## doitnow!

*What would you do?*

I bought XIC, VTI, VEA & XSB back in June.

I am committed to investing in the market but I considering my options:

Take a hit now and then re-invest as I think there will be some buying opportunities down the road or weather the storm?


----------



## humble_pie

didn't venable park pretty much leave the market by early 2008 except for gold etfs & have remained pretty much out ever since ... not too great of an idea ...

not a client here, don't know any clients, would be happy to be corrected. Above is just my understanding.

zylon in the meantime i'm thinking maybe something like Park your Cash & Prosper.


----------



## KaeJS

Without Qe3, I will continue to just short the market.

Double dip without Qe3. 

No need to make this theatrical. The fact of the matter is that most companies are still profitable and/or get their their revenues from overseas. However, the sentiment of the market is bearish now, and definitely sour. The fundamentals do not matter when the sentiment is sour.

ie. AAPL.

Why is AAPL dropping? There is no reason for it to drop. It is only dropping because everything else is, which is the way the market works. Temporary blips, but the market direction is down.

If Bernanke says some "good things" on Tuesday, which I don't think he will because the market hates his speeches, then I may reconsider and/or sit out Tuesday in all cash and gold. As far as I'm concerned, if you're buying right now - you're still losing unless you have a long time horizon. Things will still drop like mad on Monday.

Our Bull market has successfully turned into a full fledged Bear market, with the entire world laughing at the United States, and us as Canadians, are scared shitless because our Big Brother is in deep doo-doo.


----------



## zylon

*humble* - 

*kaeJS* - yes, the trend has turned ... until it turns again. But please don't underestimate the ability of politicians to wield their influence to guide the markets higher going into the presidential election year.


----------



## KaeJS

*zylon,*

I definitely see/understand where you are coming from.

However, I just don't think the turning point is here, yet. Will it come? Definitely. I just don't think it will be Monday or Tuesday (unless Bernanke opens his mouth and spews positivity)


----------



## Cal

clovis8 said:


> I have about %9000 in equities that I may need to liquidate in the next few months to buy a place. I am hoping not to, but my question is should I liquidate now? If the market is going down in the short terms perhaps I need to get out?


Short term money should be in a high interest account.


----------



## Abha

KaeJS is right about one thing.

Bernanke speech = Prime Shorting Opportunity 

I always short the market even for a few minutes while he speaks.

Obama is following in his footsteps as well these days... every time he comes on TV = Shorting Time


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> zylon in the meantime i'm thinking maybe something like Park your Cash & Prosper.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS, just wondering...did you sell TZA or keep holding?


----------



## KaeJS

gibor said:


> KaeJS, just wondering...did you sell TZA or keep holding?


Sold some, I have 250 still.


----------



## Abha

KaeJS said:


> Sold some, I have 250 still.


Perfect move. Congratulations. These volatile markets are going to turn you into a pro.


----------



## peterk

Oh sweet lord why have I been holding on to this stupid BAC for so long! :|


----------



## Abha

This is really getting to be insane. 

If this isn't the bottom I'm going to switch careers.


----------



## andrewf

UGL (2x gold) is consoling me today. I have a limit order to take some profits that got filled today. I think gold is rising too quickly and we'll see a pullback. The market's panic-meter seems to be pegged, though. Something must be wrong with me, because I'm not feeling all that anxious. Maybe it's because I don't have a huge portfolio so it seems fairly inconsequential.


----------



## Abha

andrewf said:


> UGL (2x gold) is consoling me today. I have a limit order to take some profits that got filled today. I think gold is rising too quickly and we'll see a pullback. The market's panic-meter seems to be pegged, though. Something must be wrong with me, because I'm not feeling all that anxious. Maybe it's because I don't have a huge portfolio so it seems fairly inconsequential.


I'm not panicked either. I'm more confused than anything at the moment. 

Because a lot of you don't follow the the more micro things, its turning into a circus within the industry.

Hedge funds are suing each other, some are on the verge of collapsing and others have already blown up.


----------



## Belguy

Is it just me who is getting smoked in the markets today?


----------



## Yudansha

Fear and panic in the markets today wow. I think a lot of people are going to regret selling a lot of great companies with great earnings.


----------



## marina628

My brother called to tell me he is still up $12.00 on his $47,000 portfolio ,I told him go out for a good steak and some beers to celebrate lol.I am down 2-3% not too worried


----------



## andrewf

Belguy said:


> Is it just me who is getting smoked in the markets today?


Oh, don't worry, my portfolio is tanking. I'm just not too perturbed. I'm happy the VIX is over 40, it makes XIV a screaming buy. 3 month return from here will probably make your eyes pop.

I sold a few things last week, but that is against my sell discipline. I made an exception because of how the decline is accelerating. I won't be adding equities until the market stabilizes. I think it's a bit risky to be catching a falling knife when you don't know how far it will fall.


----------



## Sampson

Smoked isn't the right term for what happened today.

This thread has been about getting hit hard, but today was something else. some specific holdings down over 8%.

I don't recall #'s like that even back in 08/09.

Sure the broad indexes like the S&P500 took bigger one-day haircuts than today, but look at the S&P MidCap 400 - 8%...


----------



## Mockingbird

Pretty orderly sell off today.
FOMC meeting tomorrow.

MB


----------



## Calgary_Girl

Oh yeah, I got creamed today. It's okay though - I like pie .

Took half of our emergency fund (down to the equivalent of 3 months' salary now) and picked up some good bargains today. I plan to ignore the rest of the week now and will sit back and watch the DRIPs pick up some more bargains over the next week .


----------



## marina628

Sadly most of my gains from 2011 are wiped out in last week .Thank god i sold off all my precious metals and took my profits or i would be down 10% in 2011.Last two days took me down 5.17% .Not factoring dividends etc just the difference in the book value and market values.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

XIU down 4.0%
VTI down 6.9%
VEA down 7.6%
VWO down 8.0%
RioCan down 4.4%

Of course, I got smoked as well. But hey, c'est la vie. 

Having said that look at the (slightly) positive column. 

XSB up 0.27%
C$ down 1.12%

Not rebalancing time just yet though. Spreadsheet tells me that bonds are 2.2% above target... that's still within the 5% threshold, so I'm not buying either.


----------



## Belguy

Well, there goes any thoughts about buying a new, big screen TV!!!! I will buy one when my portfolio bounces back to it's high of earlier this year--in about ten year's time!!!

The stock market is mug's game!!! You're always locked in waiting to make back your losses!!!


----------



## davext

Go XSB.TO!!!!!!!!!! too bad I didn't have more of that. It started being a bad place to put money when the market was doing well. 

I'm doing ok with GLD and I have a lot of US dollars so that helps. 

I still got smoked big time, nothing was safe.


----------



## Yudansha

Cut my losses in my TFSA today, sold the last of my equities for about a $2000 loss, bought TVIX held today and sold at close for a $1900 profit. So at least my TFSA has at least broken even over this whole fiasco. 

Only if I could do the same to my unregistered account


----------



## doitnow!

Belguy said:


> Well, there goes any thoughts about buying a new, big screen TV!!!! I will buy one when my portfolio bounces back to it's high of earlier this year--in about ten year's time!!!
> 
> The stock market is mug's game!!! You're always locked in waiting to make back your losses!!!


+1

I've been a DYI for a couple months, this has has been quite an initiation. I wasn't aware that membership fees were this steep


----------



## Belguy

(1) It's always tough when a new investor jumps in just before a market crash!

(2) It's always just before a market crash!!


----------



## Betzy

Cash Was safe Well US cash, our poor Cad dollar got hammered! Getting use to seeing red on markets...


----------



## marina628

I am so glad CAD fell today , I was able to take my paycheck which is in USD and convert it over .


----------



## blin10

marina628 said:


> I am so glad CAD fell today , I was able to take my paycheck which is in USD and convert it over .


if you get paid in usd like me it's an automatic hedge for the markets going down... when you Canadian portfolio takes a hit, usd gets stronger


----------



## donald

I got smoked also of course,holding steady,this is steep adminsion for being my first yr in the markets,i call it having a healthy fear,might prove to be a positive long-term lesson thou...down about 19k on a 125k portfolio.


Thank-god im not married,wouldnt want to explian "hows the investments going"

I knew what i signed up for,got to take my lumps.
Positive is i do hold great companys,all dividend payers,i got 15k in the wings so im looking @ it from that angle,it helps alittle being self-employed too,use to having my back up against a wall.


----------



## KaeJS

Was it just me that made a _shitload_ of money today?

My portfolio was up 28.89% today. 

Hate to rub that in, everyone. 

I love this market. I absolutely love it. Although, I spent the whole 9:30am-4pm time frame stressed out of my focking mind. I was sweating and pacing back and forth, hardly able to work. I thought I was going to explode.

Lets hope things drop further. I'm hoping for a double dip recession. 

If Bernanke spews positivity tomorrow, I will be _pissed_


----------



## gibor365

donald said:


> I got smoked also of course,holding steady,this is steep adminsion for being my first yr in the markets,i call it having a healthy fear,might prove to be a positive long-term lesson thou...down about 19k on a 125k portfolio.
> 
> 
> Thank-god im not married,wouldnt want to explian "hows the investments going"


I'm married.... and down probably evem more than you (portfolio more than 200K), my wife doesn't follow market and just trying not to show my concern (even though it's fu*^%& difficult)


----------



## gibor365

what do you thing, Feds tomorrow gonna bring some positive to this market.... 
P.S> I know they will if I buy short ETF


----------



## KaeJS

Japan is down over 4% in less than an hour.

Nikkei 225 8,721.96 -375.60 (-4.13%)


----------



## KaeJS

gibor said:


> what do you thing, Feds tomorrow gonna bring some positive to this market....
> P.S> I know they will if I buy short ETF


I hope they talk out their *** and there is no mention of Qe3. I am short the entire market, except gold.

Risky and stressful as all hell. I will not be having fun tomorrow afternoon. I will be stressed to the max.

I don't think they will have anything positive enough to say that could lift markets out of this slump unless they shout Qe3, but I could be wrong.


----------



## canadian_investor

kaejs, how are you trading the market?
are you using TZA?
I did a few trades last Fri. using VXX and that worked out well.
what else is a good short term bearish trade?


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> Japan is down over 4% in less than an hour.
> 
> Nikkei 225 8,721.96 -375.60 (-4.13%)


Did they just stop trading the Hang Seng and Taiwan exchanges?
Google is not showing any updates for last several minutes and is showing 0% change.
Last update was showing slightly down.


----------



## KaeJS

canadian_investor said:


> kaejs, how are you trading the market?
> are you using TZA?
> I did a few trades last Fri. using VXX and that worked out well.
> what else is a good short term bearish trade?


I am only trading TZA.

You may want to check out SDS or FAZ

Or go here for a list of short ETF's. I like the 3x leverage better than the 2x.

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/short-etfs.html



HaroldCrump said:


> Did they just stop trading the Hang Seng and Taiwan exchanges?
> Google is not showing any updates for last several minutes and is showing 0% change.
> Last update was showing slightly down.


I was wondering the same thing.


----------



## ddkay

http://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/

Hang Seng is down -6.25%


----------



## donald

Gibor,my dad got sliced and diced as everyone in 09,he climbed back with the rebound and now he is getting hit again(not so bad,he has a good chuck in a money-market,and he is semi-retired)Funny thing is my mom really does not know exactly whats taking place,she has an idea,but she doesnt look.

Its funny now because for the first time in my life i can understand how my dad feels....you dont really get it untill your money is in the market.

Also funny is when i would be getting a hair-cut in the past with my mutuals,i never really knew either,i went through the meltdown and barley knew.I only knew when i noticed i never made any money...hence why i took control


----------



## Belguy

This is bad!! Back in 2008, my portfolio dropped by 43% and I am beginning to think that it might be worse this time around like maybe a 50% drop or more and many years to get all of that back.

I hope and pray that I am a way off base here!!

Good luck to us all tomorrow and for the rest of the week!!


----------



## KaeJS

Gold goes over $1740, Hang Seng down 7%.


----------



## liquidfinance

Wow. My portfolio got ripped apart today. 

Just looking at Bloomberg futures and the asian markets. It doesn't looklike it will be a pretty sight tomorrow either. 

Looking through google finance there are some nice yielding strong Canadian companies being created from this mess. Just how low will they go. I'm just going to try and accumulate as much cash as I can at the minute. Not so easy when getting married next month though 

Least I took a small gold position on Friday which is helping to stem the tide slightly.


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> I was wondering the same thing.


They might have halted trading for a while.
I recall NYSE and TSX had halted for a few mins. back in Oct 2008 (the day TSX had opened 600 pts down).
Far eastern markets are falling like a rock into a bottomless pit.
All the 5 major indices are down > 5%.


----------



## KaeJS

^ I hope trading isnt halted tomorrow, but I sure hope the US markets get slammed to death.

I prefer the TSX to stay alive, but the hell with DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P.

I'm surprised there isnt much action on this forum tonight. Either people don't know what the hell to say, or everyone is just thinking "ignorance is bliss" ?

Seems to be a lot of people viewing the investing section, though.


----------



## ddkay

-- China's inflation accelerates unexpectedly in July, rising 6.5% from a year earlier
-- Higher inflation means China has little room to respond to global turmoil by loosening policy
-- Analysts say China likely to pause on tightening and adopt a "wait-and-see" posture

China will save us..


----------



## blin10

KaeJS said:


> ^ I hope trading isnt halted tomorrow, but I sure hope the US markets get slammed to death.
> 
> I prefer the TSX to stay alive, but the hell with DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P.
> 
> I'm surprised there isnt much action on this forum tonight. Either people don't know what the hell to say, or everyone is just thinking "ignorance is bliss" ?
> 
> Seems to be a lot of people viewing the investing section, though.


I got nothing against you, but based on what I read, the way you trade is VERY dangerous and will teach you a very expensive lesson if you keep doing that... by reading what you wrote you were down big on your long positions so you picked up some shorts on Friday, it worked out for you because you got lucky S&P downgraded USA.... if that didn't happen there was a better chance for markets to rally on Monday due to candle patterns.... just trying to help you out there


----------



## KaeJS

blin10,

it is extremely dangerous, and I understand that. I can see exactly your point of view. You are right, when (yes, not if, but when) the market decides to act rationally and starts going in the green, I better be quick to sell or I will lose my shirt. If I were 60 years old, I would not be trading like this. Risk at my age is a good thing, though.

In my honest opinion, holding is riskier business at the moment.

And, nothing against you either.


----------



## Belguy

Buy, hold, rebalance, and prosper!!

As is my habit, I worry when markets get scary like this but I do not sell into them and I remain basically fully invested in mainly ETF's.

So far, that strategy has not made me rich but I have been overall satisfied with the results.

--Unless, this time, it truly does turn out to be different!!


----------



## blin10

Belguy said:


> Buy, hold, rebalance, and prosper!!
> 
> As is my habit, I worry when markets get scary like this but I do not sell into them and I remain basically fully invested in mainly ETF's.
> 
> So far, that strategy has not made me rich but I have been overall satisfied with the results.
> 
> --Unless, this time, it truly does turn out to be different!!


I would never be fully invested, I learned that in 08/09, always have some $ for rainy days otherwise you might miss crazy buying opportunities


----------



## donald

Blin10,-you think were close to a bottom here?


----------



## ddkay

The bottom will come when there is no hope left. The newscasters speak with despair, and all the bulls throw in their towels. As long as people keep asking if this is the bottom, it's not the bottom.


----------



## Sherlock

blin10 said:


> I would never be fully invested, I learned that in 08/09, always have some $ for rainy days otherwise you might miss crazy buying opportunities


If the buying opportunity is that good you can always borrow from your LOC to buy.


----------



## blin10

donald said:


> Blin10,-you think were close to a bottom here?


no idea, but what I do know is we broke some major support and lower then 100 and 200 MA on SPY which is pretty bearish, i'll be adding to my position if SPY hits 1010.. but don't be surprised to get some type of bounce back, it might be a powerful one due to shorts covering


----------



## ddkay

Keep checking here guys http://isthisthebottom.com/


----------



## gibor365

Interesting that 30 min ago DJIA futures were -270, now it's -129, NIKKEI from -4% , now -2.2%.... any news what is going on? Was thinking to buy a liitle bit short ETF, but fu&%$ scared


----------



## Argonaut

I think the easy money has been made on shorts. Futures now even and trending higher. I am glad I exited puts today as planned ahead of the Fed meeting. Will not make any trades until Wednesday, just to see what happens. Am still bearish, but I want to see how the market reacts to the next major piece of news.


----------



## gibor365

Maybe it's time to buy XIV... VIX was so high only couple of months in the fall 2008.... at some stage it should go down (VIX) and XIV - up


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> ^ I hope trading isnt halted tomorrow, but I sure hope the US markets get slammed to death.
> 
> I prefer the TSX to stay alive, but the hell with DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P.


Well, you deserve a copy of Day Trading as well - Four Pillars, pl. mail a second copy to KaeJS 

BTW, I hope you got out at opening bell this morning...TZA is getting fried today.


----------



## Four Pillars

HaroldCrump said:


> Well, you deserve a copy of Day Trading as well - Four Pillars, pl. mail a second copy to KaeJS
> 
> BTW, I hope you got out at opening bell this morning...TZA is getting fried today.


Haha - yes, I do. I didn't do much better than your predictions.

I sent KaeJS a copy a long time ago. I'm thinking he hasn't read it yet.


----------



## doitnow!

http://watch.thecomedynetwork.ca/the-colbert-report/full-episodes/#clip513283

For a little comic relief during these stressful times check out Jon Stewart's hilarious critique of the Standard & Poor's downgrade. It highlights the hypocrisy of the power players involved and exposes their laughable decisions. Enjoy.


----------



## Yudansha

Wow got super lucky today. Managed to drop the last of my TVIX right in the Fed statement release dip. WHEW. I think its time for a RALLY!


----------



## gibor365

I'm very wondering what tto expect on Wed.....


----------



## Betzy

Yo yo, Down Monday upish Tuesday Down more on Wed!


----------



## blin10

it closed down very bullish pattern today ... i expect more upside tomorow


----------



## gibor365

blin10 said:


> it closed down very bullish pattern today ... i expect more upside tomorow


so far futures support this statement DJIA INDEX is +61


----------



## KaeJS

HaroldCrump said:


> Well, you deserve a copy of Day Trading as well - Four Pillars, pl. mail a second copy to KaeJS
> 
> BTW, I hope you got out at opening bell this morning...TZA is getting fried today.





Four Pillars said:


> I sent KaeJS a copy a long time ago. I'm thinking he hasn't read it yet.


I sold TZA in pre-market way before market even opened. Then I bought some TNA. Sold TNA, grabbed TZA again, made some profit there. 

My total profit on TZA and TNA today was 6.8% of my portfolio.

Did quite well. Don't know what you guys are talking about.


----------



## KaeJS

blin10 said:


> it closed down very bullish pattern today ... i expect more upside tomorow


Couldn't agree more. Upside potential is huge. Looks like bulls are going to be back in the running with the way the DJIA chart looked after 2:30pm today.


----------



## Abha

KaeJS said:


> I sold TZA in pre-market way before market even opened. Then I bought some TNA. Sold TNA, grabbed TZA again, made some profit there.
> 
> My total profit on TZA and TNA today was 6.8% of my portfolio.
> 
> Did quite well. Don't know what you guys are talking about.


We should start a hedge fund together. I did the same thing except I bought and sold the pair about 4 times throughout the day.


----------



## Belguy

This coming from a long term buy-and-hold index investor--we live in vastly different investment worlds!!!


----------



## blin10

KaeJS said:


> I sold TZA in pre-market way before market even opened. Then I bought some TNA. Sold TNA, grabbed TZA again, made some profit there.
> 
> My total profit on TZA and TNA today was 6.8% of my portfolio.
> 
> Did quite well. Don't know what you guys are talking about.


why would you all of a sudden sell in pre market and pay $50 commission when futures looked bearish


----------



## KaeJS

blin10 said:


> why would you all of a sudden sell in pre market and pay $50 commission when futures looked bearish


Futures were Bullish, bud. They were green.

And where are you getting $50 commission from?

"Commission: $4.95 
SEC: $0.29 ECN: $1.00 "

I paid $6.24 in commission to make that pre-market trade.

*Abha,*

I was watching them all day. I thought about buying in and doing some more flips between the two, however, like I have said to you before it can be extremely difficult to watch the markets while I am at work.

With the whole statement coming out, I did not want to risk it, as I don't have up to date information. I only have 15 minute delay, and by the time 15 minutes goes by, I could lose thousands.

Kudos to you, friend.


----------



## marina628

Kaejs
Is your spreadsheet accurate ,down -30%? this year? Or is it missing some data.


----------



## KaeJS

^ Whoops!

I forgot all about my spreadsheet! 

It is completely, 100% inaccurate. I will update this tomorrow. Thank you for informing me, marina.


----------



## Belguy

Is it just me who is getting smoked in the markets today--again! Still!

The stock market is a stupid place for a retired person to invest his hard-earned savings, especially in today's globalized economy where every bit of bad news, man made or or natural, causes markets everywhere to drop in unison!!


----------



## jamesbe

Everything got smashed this morning not sure why, anyone?

I'm waiting for my QT account too, this would be the perfect day to plunge some more money in


----------



## Homerhomer

jamesbe said:


> Everything got smashed this morning not sure why, anyone?


It's all over the news, just go to yahoo finance or any other investment site and it will be absolultely clear:

1) Morgan Stanley reducing the global growth forecast 
2) bad housing and job reports out of the US

Apart from today's news the gloom and doom lurking from every corner for the last few months combined with quick rebound from the drop we had couple of weeks ago, a receipe for some interesting days on the market.


----------



## kcowan

Belguy said:


> Is it just me who is getting smoked in the markets today--again! Still!


Your post made me check and yes I got smoked yesterday. Normally I don't look. Unlike you, I don't watch cartoons though but I can focus on other things. Yesterday was getting the patio ready for a party last night. It was a great night and, so far, this morning is bright and beautiful.


----------



## Belguy

The reason for the market drops today is that one company issued one report downgrading the world's economy and that caused stock markets everywhere to tank. In this case, it was Morgan Stanley saying that we were "close to a recession". That's what I mean when I say that, when the sentiment is negative, every little thing causes the markets to tank again.

The most optimistic forecast now is that things are very bad.

The most pessimistic forecast is that the world's economy is in a catastrophic state. 

There is a severe limit on what fiscal or monetary policy governments can implement now to fix things.

Markets around the world are down 4-5 per cent today with many European bank stocks faring much worse with 7-10 per cent drops in just a single day of trading!!!

Meanwhile, EFU is up 10 per cent today if you are shorting this double bear ETF for the day.

That's an appropriate name for that ETF, wouldn't you agree?


----------



## gibor365

Homerhomer said:


> It's all over the news, just go to yahoo finance or any other investment site and it will be absolultely clear:
> 
> 1) Morgan Stanley reducing the global growth forecast
> 2) bad housing and job reports out of the US
> 
> Apart from today's news the gloom and doom lurking from every corner for the last few months combined with quick rebound from the drop we had couple of weeks ago, a receipe for some interesting days on the market.


Does it mean that more chances to have QE3?


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Meanwhile, EFU is up 10 per cent today if you are shorting this double bear ETF for the day.
> 
> That's an appropriate name for that ETF, wouldn't you agree?


Short selling should be banned


----------



## Homerhomer

gibor said:


> Does it mean that more chances to have QE3?


IMO most likely yes.

However, we already had two of them and the results were temporary, artificially fueled stock markets rise and nothing for the economy, will QE3 be any different, I think so, won't do anything to economy either but this time even the market may finally view it as a negative.

So far we had pretty good earnings, just wait for the earnings to catch up to the economy and the cheap valuations every talking head is raving about won't be so cheap anymore, combine it with the economy, debt spinning out of control and weaking stronger nations like Germany not being able to bail out the other, and you have a making of a crash as bad, if not worse than few years ago.

Maybe I am all wrong and everything will be going up and we will live happy ever after ;-)


----------



## Belguy

There is worldwide economic gloom!!

Many are recommending that investors "get into cash"!!

Either we are entering another recession or, at the very least, the economy is stuck in the mud!!


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> There is worldwide economic gloom!!
> 
> Many are recommending that investors "get into cash"!!
> 
> (


and are you "getting into cash"?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Belguy said:


> The stock market is a stupid place for a retired person to invest his hard-earned savings


So why don't you get out?
Today is as good a day as any other.
Go with 100% fixed income and stop damaging your health by watching the markets slide like this.


----------



## sensfan15

Times like these are good for investors as we really get to see how risk averse we really are. I suspect that people think they can handle an 80/20 equity to bond allocation when in reality it could be close to 70/30 or 60/40. For those close to retirement probably 40/60 or 30/70.


----------



## leoc2

When Belguy sells his equities we will know that the market has hit bottom.


----------



## marina628

I flipped a coin today ,do i buy a couple thousand in stocks or put it on my 3.49% mortgage.I decided on the mortgage today .I bought some last week and on 16th of month my monthly purchase comes out but still at a loss about 2% which may be good compared to some .


----------



## Argonaut

You have to have a diversified portfolio. The conventional thinking of a diversified couch potato portfolio is NOT what I'm getting at. Splitting between index funds is one of the worst things to come out of this era of investing. Canada/US/International/Emerging Markets.. crap divided by four, times four is still crap.

Harry Browne's permanent portfolio reigns supreme in all market conditions:

25% Stocks
25% Bonds
25% Gold
25% Cash

My own, less conservative modification:

50% Stocks - Diversified split of 5-10 dividend stocks
25% Precious Metals - Gold is the anchor, the other three are good buys at times
25% Cash and/or Bonds


----------



## sensfan15

The problem I have with gold is that it does not pay interest or dividends, even if it is portfolio insurance.

Blue-Chip dividend stocks and bonds provide consistent income during all market conditions.


----------



## ddkay

As long as it appreciates in value why does it need to pay interest or dividends? Blue chip dividends can and have been cut if they're over-leveraged and/or economic conditions worsen.


----------



## gibor365

HaroldCrump said:


> So why don't you get out?
> Today is as good a day as any other.
> Go with 100% fixed income and stop damaging your health by watching the markets slide like this.


Because if he sells and market starts going up , he will start "damaging your health by watching the markets "


----------



## blin10

ddkay said:


> As long as it appreciates in value why does it need to pay interest or dividends? Blue chip dividends can and have been cut if they're over-leveraged and/or economic conditions worsen.


man you're so close minded, you believe in something and tha'ts it... you can read future and it tells you gold will keep going up so fast? why aren't you selling your house and betting on that? and IF blue chip dividend stocks cut their payout they STILL will pay something rather then nothing


----------



## Argonaut

Gold can produce income with options strategies, but for the average investor it is what it is. I consider it the king of all investments because an ounce of gold will always be an ounce of gold, considered an object of wealth and desire since the dawn of civilization. It cannot be manipulated by poor management of government or corporation alike. Obviously past returns will not guarantee future results, but a 25% allocation would have carried your entire portfolio on its back for the last decade. I'm not naive to think that there won't be a sharp correction or even a bear market in the future, but until then it doesn't pay to bet against the trend.


----------



## ddkay

@blin10 what's with your animosity? I've got OTM LEAPS puts on gold because I don't think it can go up forever, just like stocks can't go up forever... Obviously no one can predict the future but if there's an obvious continuation of a trend it's silly not to follow it. Also I don't "believe in something and that's it", I change my position all the time... It's overconfidence that ruins most analysts careers and investors.

Gold is overbought right now just like stocks were overbought yesterday. I'm not buying more.


----------



## Causalien

Oh oh. ZeroHedge just targeted us. Canada.


----------



## Argonaut

Canadian banks the next to go? I doubt it, we're pretty conservative. Share prices, on the other hand, will go with the market.


----------



## Homerhomer

Argonaut said:


> Canadian banks the next to go? I doubt it, we're pretty conservative. Share prices, on the other hand, will go with the market.


I agree.


----------



## Mockingbird

gibor said:


> Short selling should be banned


Didn't you recently buy inverse VIX?? 

MB


----------



## Belguy

Some European banks may be on the verge of default. Of course, the governments over there will not let this happen and so will lend the banks the necessary cash.

But, wait a minute. The governments themselves are broke and so they may have to let the banks default.

Then, watch the stock markets!!

At the very least, we are in the process of seeing equities repriced to take into account a slowing economy.

A few weeks back, markets were rising in anticipation that the economy would rebound in the second half of the year.

Well, you can pretty much throw that idea out the window!!

Cramer says to stay away from financials and tech.

I have sold nothing and I have no plans to do so. I'm in the markets for the full ride.


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> Canadian banks the next to go? I doubt it, we're pretty conservative. Share prices, on the other hand, will go with the market.


That's EXACTLY what I'm hoping for. If BMO hits $48/share, I'll be getting 5 shares a week! 

And at $48/share, that would be a cool 5.8333333% divvy.


----------



## Belguy

Buy Bank of America and Citigroup. You'll either end up doing well or you could be catching a falling knife!!  Buy low.


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Buy Bank of America and Citigroup.


Nope. Those companies are too far in the hole right now. I like my conservative Bank of Montreal.


----------



## KaeJS

BMO was founded in 1817, first bank in Canada, which is why their Institution number is 001.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Montreal

They've been paying a dividend for 182 years. Blows BAC right out of the water.


----------



## Argonaut

My employee plan bought TD today. Forced dip-buying? Haha. Unfortunately I used up most of my company-matching share buying when the stock was at its highs for the year.


----------



## KaeJS

You have a limit on how much they buy/can alter when they match?

BMO is a set amount at a set date, all the time. Non-stop DCA.


----------



## Argonaut

I think they match the first $250, then 3% of annual income after that. Up to a maximum of a certain number. But I'll hit the 3% limit first. How do you manage to put in $1000 a month? That's a lot.


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> I think they match the first $250, then 3% of annual income after that. Up to a maximum of a certain number. But I'll hit the 3% limit first. How do you manage to put in $1000 a month? That's a lot.


Interesting.

And its very, very hard to put in $1000/month. I am left with about $100 at the end of the month to add to my "savings" after my expenses and entertainment are accounted for. It's a tight budget, but I make it work. If that means staying home more often than I would like, then that's what I do. Tobacco is cheap and so is the internet and free iPhone games. Frugal living. 

I am basically being risky (like usual) is what I'm being.

I'm young, we have a global credit crisis, and I'm hoping to get a pissload of BMO stock ASAP. I've got over $3600 in BMO stock already. 

The company is profitable. It is old. It is growing. It has a great track record. Not necessarily known as the best bank, but I find the bank's take turns being the best. They're like fad's... Right now, TD is in, and before TD it was RY.


----------



## Abha

KaeJS said:


> Interesting.
> 
> And its very, very hard to put in $1000/month. I am left with about $100 at the end of the month to add to my "savings" after my expenses and entertainment are accounted for. It's a tight budget, but I make it work. If that means staying home more often than I would like, then that's what I do. Tobacco is cheap and so is the internet and free iPhone games. Frugal living.
> 
> I am basically being risky (like usual) is what I'm being.
> 
> I'm young, we have a global credit crisis, and I'm hoping to get a pissload of BMO stock ASAP. I've got over $3600 in BMO stock already.
> 
> The company is profitable. It is old. It is growing. It has a great track record. Not necessarily known as the best bank, but I find the bank's take turns being the best. They're like fad's... Right now, TD is in, and before TD it was RY.


Unless Royal Bank has a series of major screw ups, it's not going to lose its title as market cap leader anytime soon.


----------



## Argonaut

Abha said:


> Unless Royal Bank has a series of major screw ups, it's not going to lose its title as market cap leader anytime soon.


TD has a 10% gap to close. I think we will do it over time, even though all banks are so correlated in price movements. RBC has better basic chequing and savings accounts, TD has the best credit card lineup in Canada with the MBNA purchase, best customer service, and best hours. Ed Clark was rated the best CEO in Canada. I don't know much about the other banks on the lending and advisory sides, but I hear RBC has good advisors. TD is becoming a big brand in North America, a lot of it hinges on how well the US exposure plays out.


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> TD has a 10% gap to close. I think we will do it over time, even though all banks are so correlated in price movements. RBC has better basic chequing and savings accounts, TD has the best credit card lineup in Canada with the MBNA purchase, best customer service, and best hours. Ed Clark was rated the best CEO in Canada. I don't know much about the other banks on the lending and advisory sides, but I hear RBC has good advisors. TD is becoming a big brand in North America, a lot of it hinges on how well the US exposure plays out.


Being an ex TD employee (I work at another FI now) I can assure you that most manager meetings are a series of "How do we copy Royal Bank" events. Maybe it's changed now but I doubt it.


----------



## Homerhomer

KaeJS said:


> Tobacco is cheap and so is the internet and free iPhone games. Frugal living.
> 
> .


Quit smoking, it will be the best investment you ever make, I guarantee it (and this is the first and last guarantee you will hear from me ;-)


----------



## Belguy

Was it just me who got smoked in the market over the past four weeks?

Over that period, the Dow has lost 15 per cent of it's value with possibly no end to the drop in sight!!


----------



## larry81

Paper loss of about 16,000$ so far.

Adding to existing position

Cash still keep coming so i can afford to buy on the dip for a while


----------



## Belguy

BUY:

When there's blood in the streets.

During periods of maximum pessimism.

And, sell HIGH!!


----------



## larry81

At this point, it is very tempting to take concentrated position in beaten stocks and try to score a quick 10%/20% return.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Have not been smoked yet... Cause I'm not in yet. For better or worse I'm gonna try and time a bottom and then deploy my capital.

Anyone think the SP500 is going to triple digit territory?


----------



## Argonaut

1100 is the battleground that the bulls will fight the bears at. If the bears win I don't see much support for the market. I think the market will have another similar rally up to 1200 in anticipation of Jackson Hole. Obviously what the Bernanke says will have a huge effect on everything after that.


----------



## FrugalTrader

From what I see, if we get a close below 1100, next stop is 1040ish..


----------



## Mike59

Not smoked at all either: I've been in Cash, gold miners and Central fund of Canada since June , and continuing to brace for the worst. 

I see no reason for a true recovery with government policies.

I'll buy equities again closer to a Dow:$Gold ratio of 1:1. If Peter Schiff is correct (and he has been so far), we could be looking at Dow $5000 with Gold $5000 oz, or maybe Dow $7500 with Gold $7500


----------



## Belguy

Could someone more adept than me at such things post a chart showing both TSX and S&P 500 returns for the period January 1, 2008 until now? Thanks in advance!


----------



## Argonaut

There you are Mr. Belguy. TSX down 13%, S&P down 24%.


----------



## KaeJS

Homerhomer said:


> Quit smoking, it will be the best investment you ever make, I guarantee it (and this is the first and last guarantee you will hear from me ;-)


Disagree.

Have you ever sat at a cottage up in the woods, overlooked a lake and smoked a briar wood pipe with some nice, fresh tobacco and an ice cold beer? 

The tobacco is cheap cheap cheap! One bowl will last about an hour, and cost you maybe 25 cents.

I am not concerned with my health, if that's what you were getting at 
Health comes and goes, and the body will adapt.

I could die tomorrow, so I might as well enjoy my smoke today.


----------



## Argonaut

Well at least we know KaeJS smoked in the market today.

On a related note, one way to help the US debt situation is massive sin taxes. Start taxing the hell out of cigarettes and gas like we do here. And gambling, and lottos. And legalize prostitution and tax the hell out of that too.


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> And legalize prostitution and tax the hell out of that too.


What about Mary Jane?


----------



## Argonaut

I'm anti-that from living in BC. Just makes people stupid. Probably one of the only things I disagree with Ron Paul on.


----------



## KaeJS

Really? Wow.

I don't do it now, and still wouldn't if it was legal, but I do feel that it _should_ be legal.

It would be safer, of better quality, easily regulated, and bring in huge tax dollars. Only downside is people driving high - thats not cool. But people drive high all the time, anyway. So, I say legalize it.


----------



## leoc2

Belguy said:


> Could someone more adept than me at such things post a chart showing both TSX and S&P 500 returns for the period January 1, 2008 until now? Thanks in advance!


Try these links:

http://www.investorsfriend.com/Hist...nd Real Returns on Stocks (S&P 500 Index).htm


http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm


----------



## OptsyEagle

Argonaut said:


> I'm anti-that from living in BC. Just makes people stupid. Probably one of the only things I disagree with Ron Paul on.


That is a myth. I am sure some stupid people smoke it but I am sure you will find quite a few idiots that drink booze as well. I know more than enough morons trade stocks, should we ban that also? 

Legalize weed and prostitution. The battle was lost 10,000 years ago and was never worth fighting in the first place.


----------



## Belguy

Thanks to all for providing those interesting charts and links! That clearly demonstrates why I am not getting rich fast!! In fact, my investments may be taking me rapidly to the poor house!!

I would be interested in the thoughts of others who may have been sharing my investment philosophy of investing in index products and holding them for the long term.

In other words, is buy-and-hold failing at least as a short or medium term method of investing?

In a period spanning over 3 1/2 YEARS, investing in the TSX index would have lost you 13 per cent of your money and investing in the S&P 500 would have lost you almost a quarter of your money with the outstanding potential of even greater losses in this uncertain world!!

And so, make the argument for me that investing in and holding index products is still a sound way to invest!!


----------



## leoc2

Belguy

I was hoping to become a couch potato investor after 15 years of position trading. I am 5 years from retirement and I was thinking of preserving my nest egg by doing so. I was also looking forward of not having to babysit my investments on a day to day basis. As a position trader I was able to avoid the tech and 2008 crashes by running for cover and selling everything to preserve modest gains. This spring I closed all positions and placed my money in ALT5000 HISA mutual fund. I wanted the summer off as I contemplated re-deployment this September as a couch potato. I also didn't like the way the market was re-acting to the bad news in Europe. Now my dilemma is to decide if I want to try to become a rookie couch potato investor or do I continue as a position trading investor? Nothing comes easy. I was using you (Belguy) and CanadianCapitalist as my inspiration to try couch potato investing. I found this board in December and I am grateful to those who helped me with my pension questions back then. This board offers great investment advise!


----------



## Argonaut

It's never too late to switch to the appropriate asset allocation:

25% Stocks
25% Bonds
25% Gold
25% Cash

Especially effective for preserving capital and surviving bear markets.


----------



## Homerhomer

Belguy said:


> Thanks to all for providing those interesting charts and links! That clearly demonstrates why I am not getting rich fast!! In fact, my investments may be taking me rapidly to the poor house!!
> 
> I would be interested in the thoughts of others who may have been sharing my investment philosophy of investing in index products and holding them for the long term.
> 
> In other words, is buy-and-hold failing at least as a short or medium term method of investing?
> 
> In a period spanning over 3 1/2 YEARS, investing in the TSX index would have lost you 13 per cent of your money and investing in the S&P 500 would have lost you almost a quarter of your money with the outstanding potential of even greater losses in this uncertain world!!
> 
> And so, make the argument for me that investing in and holding index products is still a sound way to invest!!


IMO for buy and hold the best strategy is dividend growth investing, I do not think index investing is very rewarding anymore ( and I have held indexes in the past).

There are enough dividend growing individual equities to cover broad sectors in North America and enough multinationals earning money globally to participate in world wide economy, if you run the comparison for the basket of carefully hand picked dividend growers you would probably find that including the dividends you would outperfom the index, the same would happen if you bought at the bottom. Historically dividends make up almost half of the earnings, why not concentrate on the companies that provide that instead of investing in anything including kitchen sink?


----------



## sensfan15

Argo:

25% cash seems like a lot. Are there ever times where your at 0% cash such as great buying opportunities like we are experiencing right now?

I guess I just dislike my money sitting there doing nothing. I would rather park it in a bond fund or etf until corrections occur. That money then earns interest income monthly that can be DRIP'ed. Once a buying opportunity comes up then you can easily liquidate the bond fund or etf and deploy the cash into your targeted stock(s).


----------



## sensfan15

Homer:

I agree with you. I would rather get paid to wait. Even in bear markets the dividends keep rolling in!


----------



## Argonaut

sensfan15 said:


> Argo:
> 
> 25% cash seems like a lot. Are there ever times where your at 0% cash such as great buying opportunities like we are experiencing right now?
> 
> I guess I just dislike my money sitting there doing nothing. I would rather park it in a bond fund or etf until corrections occur. That money then earns interest income monthly that can be DRIP'ed. Once a buying opportunity comes up then you can easily liquidate the bond fund or etf and deploy the cash into your targeted stock(s).


Admittedly, the 25% rule is a general guideline that I would give novice or conservative investors. It is not my own and I did not invent it. I personally like 50% dividend paying stocks, 25% metals, and 25% cash/fixed income.

Keep in mind that the 25% cash isn't doing nothing. Only a few years ago my savings account was earning 4%, nothing to scoff at for a safe cushion. And right now at 1+% it is still good, because that cash will be available for some good buying opportunities. I also use my cash portion to play with options, but that is not for everyone.


----------



## KaeJS

It's good to have some cash on board, but I think that's where margin can be really helpful.

If things keep sliding and we bounce below the lows we just saw a week ago, I will be dipping into margin to purchase a little here and there (only dividend payers, though) And then I will find another source of income (probably my job or savings) to deploy into my trading account to reduce my margin.


----------



## Jon_Snow

I know that sitting on a lot of cash results in not cashing in on dividends right now. But if markets really tank in the next few months (pretty likely) I can invest and enjoy dividends AND growth on the way back up. Probably flawed logic, but its how I rationalize sitting on 250k right now.

I am of course assuming that the markets are going experience better times in the near future.


----------



## blin10

Jon_Snow said:


> I know that sitting on a lot of cash results in not cashing in on dividends right now. *But if* markets really tank in the next few months (pretty likely) I can invest and enjoy dividends AND growth on the way back up. Probably flawed logic, but its how I rationalize sitting on 250k right now.
> 
> I am of course assuming that the markets are going experience better times in the near future.


it's a big if...sure they can go lower but nobody knows how low, that's why it's good to put in some amount now and just average down if markets sink... at least that's what I'm doing


----------



## KaeJS

Jon_Snow said:


> its how I rationalize sitting on 250k right now.


Yeah, its _only_ 250k. No big deal.


----------



## Jon_Snow

100k of that is locked in a GIC, admittedly... But the bank says I can access it if I pay a penalty. Stocks would have to get REALLY cheap for me to consider it.

The more I think about it, living below your means is the best way to increase your net worth these days.... Not exciting or sexy, but it accounts for about 99% of my financial progress...


----------



## KaeJS

Agreed on the frugality - but let's face it.

If you're not going to spend it - Net Worth is just a bragging right. You need to spend it and live frivilously, sometimes.


----------



## zylon

*I'm not a mutual fund salesman*

Much as I've been rooting for the demise of the mutual fund industry, at least those funds with MERs greater than say 1.2%, I think the MF sales force has some ammunition to back them up now.

I ran a quick “fund filter” at GlobeFund and found 134 funds with >5% return YTD (year to date). I left out funds with minimum investment greater than $5k, and also omitted funds with less than 3 star rating.

With TSX year to date return being about minus 10%, fund companies will be gearing up for huge ad campaigns for the coming RSP and TFSA season. Wanna bet?

Not sure if this link to my fund search will work.


----------



## KaeJS

zylon, the link works. I checked it out. Cool observation.

My entire TFSA is with a mutual fund, and it just went below 0%. Its YTD return is -2.33%. Not extremely horrible when considering something like XIU at -10.07% 

Good thing I sold out of XIU at $20.06!!!


----------



## ddkay

KaeJS's TD Monthly Income fund is 40% bonds, 58.4% stocks, and 1.6% cash, nothing a disciplined couch potato couldn't do!

The best performers year to date seem to be mutual funds with pure corporate bonds and federal/provincial bonds

The Front Street Capital mutual funds with 15% YTD are interesting.. they have large positions (44%) in two unlisted companies like "Laricina Energy Ltd" and "North West Upgrading Inc.", but historical performance shows they are still very vulnerable to downturns, losing ~60% of value in 2008 http://www.frontstreetcapital.com/fund/front-street-energy-growth-fund

Salida Capital's Strategic Growth Fund is another celebrity with a 66.50% loss in 2008 and a 181.55% return in 2009 http://www.salidacapital.com/MultiFundPerformance.php


----------



## Argonaut

Aren't there any mutual funds out there that are taking advantage of gold's performance? Even Sprott, the biggest metal bull in North America, has poor performance in all funds except straight gold bullion. Sometimes it's that simple. At times I think that no one else out there wants to make any money.


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> Aren't there any mutual funds out there that are taking advantage of gold's performance? Even Sprott, the biggest metal bull in North America, has poor performance in all funds except straight gold bullion. Sometimes it's that simple. Sometimes I think that no one else out there wants to make any money.


Everybody wants to make money investing. The reality is that most lose money in their attempt to make it. 

Look at John Paulson's performance this month alone. Absolutely atrocious, and I won't be surprised if his high net worth clients shut him down.


----------



## zylon

I probably shouldn't have brought up the mutual fund topic because no doubt someone is going to chase performance and find themselves in a losing position by June next year. 

Reality is that fund performance reverts to the mean with the high fliers this year possibly sinking in the mud next year.

To Argo's point about gold ... precious metals funds did very well in 2010 but are dogs this year, so far. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see them outperform again in 2012.


----------



## gibor365

From No-Load Canadian Equity funds, one of the best performers is MAW106, It has a little higher MER than for ezample TDB900 (e-series), but returns are much better:
YTD - 4.6 vs -9.5
1 year +5.86 vs +2.81


----------



## Belguy

The good news is that none of us got smoked in the markets for the past two days.

However, tomorrow it's back to more of the same old, same old.


----------



## KaeJS

^ you never know. 

Asian markets just opened up green... 

And for those of us that have a diversified portfolio (Belguy, thats you!) Gold is up $25.00 already.

Doesn't look so bad if you ask me. I was expecting a quick -1% drop amongst asian markets.


----------



## larry81

KaeJS said:


> ^ you never know.
> 
> Asian markets just opened up green...


Asian stocks gave up early gains and fell Monday as fears that the U.S. is slipping back into recession caused investors to dump riskier assets.

HIHIHI


----------



## KaeJS

^ lol. yeah. I saw that. 

In for another bumpy ride tomorrow, folks.


----------



## Belguy

I believe that I may have said this earlier, but it is not the sudden market drops that bother me so much, it is the long, painful climb back to where we started that is hard to live with. You can lose a significant portion of your portfolio in just a day or a matter of a few days and then have it take many weeks, months, or even years to get it back. This becomes all the more critical the older that you get. One thing for sure, when I can no longer sell at a loss, I am going to adjust my portfolio to a 50/50 fixed income/equity ratio from the current 40/60 ratio. After many years in the market, I have finally come to the point where I am no longer prepared to live with the level of volatility that exists in today's markets.


----------



## webber22

Belguy, if you set up your portfolio to spin off dividend income then you wouldn't have to worry so much about the value of the underlying stocks


----------



## larry81

Horray for dividends, i am near a big purchase of XDV...


----------



## larry81

Just converted my VEA/VWO holdings to VXUS... harvested about 6,500$ tax-loss at the same time.


----------



## Belguy

When gold stops it's relentless rise, will that mean that equities will then start to rise? Can the equity markets really do much while gold keeps on posting new heights with no end in sight?


----------



## kcowan

Belguy
Why dontcha rebalance to get back to 40/60? Surely your allocation is not at target.


----------



## larry81

Remember a few months ago when everyone was predicting the destruction of bonds funds ?

Now everyone is just busy predicting the destruction of the equities market ! I wonder how many of the doomsday folks are actually shorting the market.


----------



## el oro

Belguy, think of gold like a sponge. Right now it's sopping up all of the capital looking for a "safe" place that will keep value. The sponge can only get so large before the capital starts spilling into other assets perceived as safe. Gold stocks and silver may be starting to play catch up to gold now. Other hard assets and quality stocks will eventually benefit as well but potentially not until much lower levels.


----------



## fatcat

i finally threw in the towel on gold equities and bought bullion ... thank goodness

i think that gold equties are lagging so far behind bullion because people think that gold is just to heated up and equities are looking at the price further down the road and so are priced for gold at somewhat lower levels

though, as you say 1600, gold is sopping up all the fear

japan is apparently issuing zero-interest bonds which tell you how much fear is out there if people are giving away their money for nothing just so they can keep it


----------



## el oro

Or, more quantitatively, gold is sopping up capital fleeing (slowly) from government assets as yields are not high enough to offset potential risk.

You may regret swapping gold stocks for bullion soon. There has been a popular short gold stocks/long gold bullion trade going for the past couple of years or so. The rationale being you could get the gold upside without the associated risks of the miners. Also, the gold stock to gold price ratio was relatively high a few years ago. This trade is winding down as the ratio has decreased and right now gold stocks are on the verge of a breakout.


----------



## Belguy

I will maintain my asset allocation target for the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund D through all market conditions.

However, I do believe that I have a $100 gold coin around here somewhere. What are they going for these days?


----------



## fatcat

> You may regret swapping gold stocks for bullion soon. There has been a popular short gold stocks/long gold bullion trade going for the past couple of years or so. The rationale being you could get the gold upside without the associated risks of the miners. Also, the gold stock to gold price ratio was relatively high a few years ago. This trade is winding down as the ratio has decreased and right now gold stocks are on the verge of a breakout.


 i hear this everywhere lately .. argo likes argonaut gold, who do you like ? .. i see that XGD had a very nice day today ..


----------



## el oro

You probably have heard it around recently since it appears to have started happening. Broad equities have generally kept up with gold stocks since the '09 bottom but have taken off (relatively) in the past two weeks. Check out the TSX to XGD ratio or the equivalent version in the US indices. The last hurdle will be the 52-wk highs. As for which one to pick, if I'm right then you could pick any gold stock and do well.


----------



## dogcom

As long as energy and so on keeps going down and gold bullion is going up or staying where it is then gold stocks are becoming a better and better bargain. They are silently making boatloads of money while investors sell them with the overall stock market. What a perfect storm to have your product go up while your costs go down. Gold stocks will go crazy once we get through the fall and the stock market is finished getting nailed.


----------



## gibor365

dogcom said:


> As long as energy and so on keeps going down and gold bullion is going up or staying where it is then gold stocks are becoming a better and better bargain. They are silently making boatloads of money while investors sell them with the overall stock market. What a perfect storm to have your product go up while your costs go down. Gold stocks will go crazy once we get through the fall and the stock market is finished getting nailed.


I think the same and lately keeping my finger to add position to Goldcorp and open new positions with ABX andd AR...
Also, I hold XMA who is doing pretty good lately... from 10 top holdings they have 5 biggest gold miners + POT, AGU, FM etc...


----------



## Cal

Where was Belguy today? I figured he would be all over this thread screaming the 'sky is falling'. 

Could Belguy be relaxing on a day like this????

Naaaaah.

As much as I hated looking at the numbers today, I tried to get some more TD.


----------



## KaeJS

Cal said:


> Where was Belguy today? I figured he would be all over this thread screaming the 'sky is falling'.
> 
> Could Belguy be relaxing on a day like this????
> 
> Naaaaah.
> 
> As much as I hated looking at the numbers today, I tried to get some more TD.


Belguy is currently experiencing cardiac arrest at the nearest hospital.


----------



## Belguy

Heh, I'm getting ready for bed and I will sleep like a baby!!

Bahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

When I see you guys in the soup line with me in the near future, I don't think that you will be so cocky!!


----------



## Kim

You guys are funny - thanks for the laugh. 
I'm not sure why I'm not worried about this - seems like a normal turn of events considering the circumstances. And it's all in how you look at it - the stocks aren't falling - it's more like the end of summer sale! 

Bye bye summer of 2011.


----------



## Jungle

Interesting how women and men look at it. My wife is the same; it doesn't really scar her. 

Women are known to the "set it and forget it" with a basic dca plan. But it's this dicipline that beats men when they panic, sell or stop investing.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Nope, not today!

Love the title of this thread.  

Hope you all had a good comeback, at least from last week.


----------



## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> Love the title of this thread.


Thank you! 

And my yesterday was a lot better than today.


----------



## KaeJS

WHAT THE  HAPPENED at 3:50pm?

 turns into  turns into 

Down $402 today in my trading account.


----------



## Jon_Snow

My two biggest holdings, XDV and CDZ only lost .19% and .57% respectively... and the dividends are arriving soon!


----------



## m3s

Down like 2 or 3% overall today. Guess I shouldn't have counted my monthly tallies on the weekend


----------



## doctrine

My Telus and BCE stocks did well. Overall down 0.89% at end of the day - not really a big deal.


----------



## larry81

Jon_Snow said:


> My two biggest holdings, XDV and CDZ only lost .19% and .57% respectively... and the dividends are arriving soon!


I hold XDV too and like the recurring flow of dividends 

What is your rational for holding both XDV and CDZ ?


----------



## leoc2

larry81 said:


> I hold XDV too and like the recurring flow of dividends
> 
> What is your rational for holding both XDV and CDZ ?


It may have something to do with this....
http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2011/09/20/balancing-your-dividend-holdings/


----------



## Jon_Snow

larry81 said:


> I hold XDV too and like the recurring flow of dividends
> 
> What is your rational for holding both XDV and CDZ ?


XDV pays a higher dividend yes, but both funds have a different approach in terms of their holdings. XDV is front heavy with banks, while CDZ is more represented by by resource and consumer sectors. That is why, on a day when commodities suffered, CDZ did more poorly than XDV. 

Owning both has worked out quite well.


----------



## Belguy

Well, I got smoked in the markets again today and nothing that I have owned has done "quite well" unless earning just over 5 per cent a year, over the past five years, with great volatility along the way, qualifies for that definition.

I know, I know--five years is not enough time--you have to look at how much you earned over the past 50 years.

Yeah, right!!


----------



## Belguy

Is it only me who is getting smoked in the markets again today?


----------



## tendim

Belguy said:


> Is it only me who is getting smoked in the markets again today?


Nope, killed. My call options got the snot kicked out of them, but they expire in April 2012 so I'm not worried. Otherwise down down down down. I haven't really made a recovery since the summer -- I had bought in March 2011 at the top of the current swing, and I've been licking my wounds ever since.

The only consolation is that I'm a long term holder, and my companies keep increasing their dividends so in the long run I'm okay. But right now all of that red makes me sick.


----------



## fernandes90

nope i am taking a beating as well.


----------



## blin10

all you who are long with 90%+ cash invested really need to wait for what will happen with euro, because greece will default sooner or later and it will put a huge dent, all those bail out packages do nothing but making it worse.... I got some money long for dividends, but being very careful because I been through 2008 crisis and saw my stocks dive 80% and I know how easily things can go that way


----------



## HaroldCrump

blin10 said:


> I been through 2008 crisis and saw my stocks dive 80%


80% is really rough.
What were you buying that fell 80%?
Mostly US financials, I imagine.
If you had diversified a little, it would have been better.


----------



## blin10

HaroldCrump said:


> 80% is really rough.
> What were you buying that fell 80%?
> Mostly US financials, I imagine.
> If you had diversified a little, it would have been better.


pretty much everything got wiped, I had some oil, solar, magna(MGA), etc... any stock got killed at least 50%, no diversification would save you...good thing I had cash left to average down at the lows otherwise it would suck to miss that


----------



## KaeJS

I don't think 'smoked' is the appropriate term for what I went through today.

I got charred, boiled, fried, baked, steamed, sauteed, burned..... obliterated?

I need to inject capital. I'm afraid of a margin call coming on if I keep losing ~$500/day.


----------



## HaroldCrump

blin10 said:


> any stock got killed at least 50%, no diversification would save you...


Diversification (and asset allocation) did help during that time, maybe not during the 6 darkest months of Sep 2008 - Mar 2009, but certainly since then.
Did you average down at all during those days?
Many of the major Canadian stocks have recovered since then, esp. if you bought more during those days.
If you bought at the 2007 or early 2008 top and didn't do anything since then, in that case, yes you are probably still down, but shouldn't still be 80%.
Bonds have helped balance the volatility and equity performance since then as well.


----------



## Belguy

From my perspective, you can't count on bonds to partially offset your equity losses now to the same extent as you could back in 2008 but they will still reduce your losses compared with an all-equity portfolio.

Is it only me who is getting more than a little tired over this European problem? It just seems to be something that keeps coming back to bite us in ways that we hadn't thought of, the latest being Greece's move to put the agreements to a vote of the people. Greece is a pipsqueak of a country with a population only the size of the City of Chicago. I say to let them go and fend for themselves but, then we will have Italy etc. to worry about not to mention the U.S. which is also in a mess.

Conclusion: This is no time for older investors to have their life savings in the stock market. However, another rule of thumb is to sell high and so what is an older investor to do at this point other than to envy those who have their savings in safer investments.

Instead of living out our golden years in economic boom times, we are instead living in a period of high economic anxiety. Better luck to the next generation.

We grow too soon olde and too late schmart!!


----------



## Argonaut

Was up 0.13% today. 

Inter Pipeline: Best stock to own on the TSX.


----------



## Belguy

Good for you!! As Cramer often says, even in the worst of times, there is money to be made somewhere in the markets!!


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> Good for you!! As Cramer often says, even in the worst of times, there is money to be made somewhere in the markets!!


IMHO, anyone listening to Kramer deserve to lose his shirt. He represent everything that is wrong with investing.


----------



## ddkay

Speak for yourself, Cramer does amazing in bull markets


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Speak for yourself, Cramer does amazing in bull markets


Doesn't everybody?


----------



## londoncalling

Argonaut said:


> Was up 0.13% today.
> 
> Inter Pipeline: Best stock to own on the TSX.


I agree. My only regret was trimming my position 1/3 in early August. 

I was hoping to get a dip to lower my ACB. Alas it never came. I guess that's the price of learning this crazy world called the "market". There will be other chances with other stocks in the coming weeks and months as this European 3 ring circus continues.

Cheers

PS Thanks to Causalien for telling me to hold this stock instead of trying to trade it up and down the last week or so


----------



## Argonaut

No reason to sell Inter Pipeline, just hold and add to it if portfolio growth calls for it. I've owned it exactly a year, just before they announced distribution increase to 0.08. 

Cramer gets a bad rap, but there's some good advice to be had there if you strip away the fat. All of the stock recommendations and noise is like struggling to find one's way through cobwebs, and he flip-flops on general market direction on a daily basis. But he consistently recommends 20% gold (I say 25%) and a small diversified group of dividend stocks, which is my portfolio in a nutshell.


----------



## Mike59

My portfolio (CEF.A, XGD, ZJG, XRE) could be deemed contrarian, but seems to like days like yesterday, I was up 0.48% for the day. If I can preserve wealth during all this chaos, I'm fine with that.


----------



## Homerhomer

larry81 said:


> IMHO, anyone listening to Kramer deserve to lose his shirt. He represent everything that is wrong with investing.


I disagree ( to a point ;-), once you ignore his pump and hype, which sadly is most of his show, there is some value in it, I rarely listen to him but if I do it's the first 5 minutes of the show, after that you truly are better off watching Grace Anatomy.


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> I got charred, boiled, fried, baked, steamed, sauteed, burned..... obliterated?


That was so funny! 

At least AAPL is up today and I know you have shares, so I hope this comforts you a little.

Actually, pre-market prices are not looking too bad!


----------



## Belguy

Just for the record, Cramer likes physical gold but not the miners!


----------



## Argonaut

Belguy said:


> Just for the record, Cramer likes physical gold but not the miners!


Only since this week. He has mega flip-flopped on that one. Used to recommend Goldcorp, Barrick, Agnico, and Nova Gold all the time. Meanwhile I've always backed physical and there's record of it on this forum!


----------



## ddkay

Miners are experts at shareholder dilution.. look at Barrick. 999.80M shares issued, and its 7x smaller than Apple by market cap. No thanks...


----------



## andrewf

^ I don't get it. What does the shares outstanding have to do with anything? I mean, if they did a 10:1 reverse split, would you like them more?


----------



## Belguy

More whining!!

S&P 500 Composite Index 10 year average annual compound return (%): -4.0

5-Year average GIC Index: +2.9%

Difference: 6.9% higher return if had invested in 5 year GICs instead of an S&P 500 Index product.

Gotta love the stock market!!

End of today's whining!!


----------



## Homerhomer

Belguy said:


> End of today's whining!!


Thank you sir  and please keep the promise.


----------



## Belguy

Won't promise but will try!!


----------



## larry81

Belguy said:


> More whining!!
> 
> S&P 500 Composite Index 10 year average annual compound return (%): -4.0
> 
> 5-Year average GIC Index: +2.9%
> 
> Difference: 6.9% higher return if had invested in 5 year GICs instead of an S&P 500 Index product.
> 
> Gotta love the stock market!!
> 
> End of today's whining!!


You should have gone in GIC long time ago


----------



## Belguy

I wish that I had but hindsight is always 50/50!!

There just seem to be no good options to grow one's portfolio in today's overall environment which frankly stinks!!

Last whine of the day!


----------



## Argonaut

There's always options, this has been a tremendous year for investing. Quality companies that pay sustainable dividends and gold is what works for me.


----------



## Belguy

Am I correct in thinking that, so long as gold continues to rise, it will signal that the world's financial system is still in a mess and that the daily gyrations of the equity markets don't mean very much?

When, sometime in the future, I see investors bailing out of gold, will that be a signal that the world's financial system is righting itself?

However, I don't really expect to live that long anyway!!


----------



## marina628

I plan to invest more into Dividend stocks until rates rise again.Taking my chances on Bank stocks ,FTS and ENB to get me my 4% .


----------



## gibor365

I got creamed today  The only equity from about 30 I hold , was up LNV....all others are sharply down...


----------



## jcgd

Churchill is my biggest holding and I was down 18% at one point today.


----------



## Belguy

I got smoked today!!

All the king's horses and all the king's men cannot contain the crisis in Europe.

Even God himself could not solve it!!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> Even God himself could not solve it!!


Probably because he doesn't exist. 

And I try really hard not to be part of the "Belguy Bashing Bandwagon Brotherhood", but I think this is the third time I've read this in the past week.

As for the markets, I got trampled on.


----------



## jamesbe

Well I wasn't up but only down 1% overall.

My savior is always D.UN, when everything is down, it is up and when everything is up, it is Up more! So far I'm up 10% won it.


----------



## doctrine

All of my stocks were down, about 1.6% compared to 2.3% TSX. Not really a big deal, they're all making as much money as they were yesterday.


----------



## peterk

Down 4.7% today! :O

Shoulda listened to ddkay's dream about the bear and the snake...


----------



## gibor365

Got smoked again today... From 40+ equities I hold, up only a very few: PM, MO, LIQ and SJR


----------



## KaeJS

I did considerably well considering the market today.

I still lost money, but I should have lost twice as much.

Sold my TZA a little too early. Stupid Italy.


----------



## m3s

Isn't globalization great


----------



## KaeJS

mode3sour said:


> Isn't globalization great


We aren't supposed to swear on this forum, so please use your imagination.

To answer your question:

____ no.


----------



## donald

Remember peter Mcneilly?lol.


----------



## Belguy

Italy is a volcano that could blow sky high at any time!!


----------



## dogleg

Do we have the wrong people running the planet or is the human species not nearly as clever as we think - at least when it comes to financial matters?


----------



## KaeJS

Both.


----------



## dogleg

KaeJS: Good answer. Was it J.K.Galbreath who said, " The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." I think it pretty much says it all .


----------



## ddkay

I'd say we've outsmarted ourselves because we keep trying the same thing (adding more debt) and it doesn't work but it brings temporary relief


----------



## KaeJS

Whats my panties all in a bunch is this whole "globalization" thing.

iPhones > Italy.

So why is AAPL dropping?

This is what makes me furious. Macroeconomics.


----------



## dogleg

ddkay: Which translation of 'tutto bene ' do you intend : "all good" or "good luck" ? I need the latter. Cheers.


----------



## ddkay

It's a hashtag for Italy news, better translates to "everything is ok!" https://twitter.com/#!/search/#tuttobene


----------



## Jungle

I got smoked today but I don't mind, so long as we continue to by cheap stocks and mutual funds. Just wish I had some bonds to sell. 

ENB doing well.


----------



## ddkay

It's not just globalization, it's the way capital flows (out of assets into currencies and vice versa), check out the piece I linked in Market Forecasts - how all correlations are moving to 1. Probably the main reason behind why many fund managers are unable to beat their benchmark index.


----------



## kcowan

KaeJS said:


> Whats my panties all in a bunch is this whole "globalization" thing.
> 
> iPhones > Italy.
> 
> So why is AAPL dropping?
> 
> This is what makes me furious. Macroeconomics.


AAPL has triggered my 10% drop from peak threshhold. So it is indicating my stop loss to get out. Frozen in decision! Is that Indecision?


----------



## Causalien

Yes. It's indecision. Greed and avoidance of pain. You are just looking for someone to blame if it does indeed go back up later. I can be your dark knight.


----------



## dogcom

The only thing that gets me about the whole global thing is it takes a long time in real time to go through it. We still have a long way to go and more stocks will be smashed as the macro wave continues to go through. I have been protecting my money since early 2007 and will continue to do so until we get clear and gold has gone parabolic to like $3000 an ounce or more.

The problem is people have been taught that everything is noise so go buy your stocks and ignore the world. This works out very well in most cases except when the threat of the collapse of debt worldwide comes calling. This is why there is no where to hide or diversify this time around because the entire world financial system is at risk instead of just one region or country. 

Many big funds and investors realize this so they go into the market like I do and then sell hang back and go in again. They don't just buy and hold because the risk is just to great for that.


----------



## andrewf

AAPL fell in 2008, too, despite the iPhone. If you believe in the company long term, why stress?


----------



## kcowan

Well I sold it all when it was $72 and was able to buy it all back at $52.


----------



## gibor365

gibor said:


> Got smoked again today... From 40+ equities I hold, up only a very few: PM, MO, LIQ and SJR


and again today.... just RCI and ...RY are up...
I'm getting smoked with very high freq


----------



## Betzy

I think of it as not so much getting smoked but being able to buy more at less$$, sell next week or month once trades are up...the world is falling haven't you heard


----------



## Belguy

I got smoked again!! We are heading back to last year's lows and beyond!!
Is this what they refer to as a 'period of maximum pessimism'?


----------



## KaeJS

I wouldn't say I got smoked.

I didn't do well, though.

Down -0.88%.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Belguy said:


> I got smoked again!! We are heading back to last year's lows and beyond!!
> Is this what they refer to as a 'period of maximum pessimism'?


I hope you are right Belguy... I'm still kicking myself for missing out on the 2009 lows. These times must suck for retired guys like yourself... but for us young fellas still earning a paycheck, a big market crash is a great opportunity.

P.S. you are going to wear out the  emoticon someday.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I wouldn't say I got smoked.
> 
> I didn't do well, though.
> 
> Down -0.88%.


Do you still hold TZA?


----------



## KaeJS

Yes. I need to have it for hedging purposes.

I usually do not like to hold TZA overnight, but I think right now it is necessary.

I will sell out before US Thanksgiving.


----------



## Belguy

Jon Snow, yes these are  times!! Younger investors can learn something from my experience.

As you approach retirement, never have any money in the markets that you cannot afford to lose!!


----------



## Jon_Snow

Belguy said:


> Jon Snow, yes these are  times!! Younger investors can learn something from my experience.
> 
> As you approach retirement, never have any money in the markets that you cannot afford to lose!!


Trust me Belguy, I have viewed your posts with interest and at other times considerable amusement... and I'm not going to follow your example as I shoot for my own retirement.


----------



## KaeJS

Was it just me that got smoked in the market today?

I am getting stressed.


----------



## phrenk

I've been selling most of my holdings in my margin account for the carryforward losses in the past week. These markets are too volatile and clarity is needed from both the US and Europe.


----------



## KaeJS

I know some people on here are going to give me huge flak for this, but is it too risky at this point to sell all of my positions and purchase 1000 TZA at $39?

Ride TZA for a dollar gain or two, then GTFO of the market until it clears up?


----------



## webber22

Don't forget the NYSE closes at 1pm on Friday, after being closed Thursday.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I know some people on here are going to give me huge flak for this, but is it too risky at this point to sell all of my positions and purchase 1000 TZA at $39?
> 
> Ride TZA for a dollar gain or two, then GTFO of the market until it clears up?


Are you serious?! You got lucky already several times with TZA, who knows what will be this time....


----------



## KaeJS

I am serious.

I know its risky, because if something is announced, I could easily lose $4,000 in a single day. But sometimes you have to take risks, no?


----------



## ddkay

You don't sound in a state to make objective decisions, you're bleeding again. So no, this is not a type of risk I recommend anyone to take. If you are not sure what to do (I am not sure at this point either), step out and watch.

You should have done this around 1240 when I told you to watch the multimonth triangle setup

In two days we have seen
1) Super fail committee
2) -20% US GDP surprise
3) Threat of US bank stress tests (this is actually hilarious)
4) Dexia bailout is in trouble
5) China PMI contracts
6) German bund auction misses target sales by 35%

What else could go wrong?

Declare war on Iran and BAC Chapter 11 Friday? All in the realm of possibility, and I expect that rounded top pattern to complete, but honestly, I would not bet on it now, the risks are too high.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I am serious.
> 
> I know its risky, because if something is announced, I could easily lose $4,000 in a single day. But sometimes you have to take risks, no?


It's too risky for me.... Maybe it's OK for guys like you and Belguy 

There are too much involved... you have more than 1-2 stocks, so you have to sell all of them probably for market price, and when you sell TZA can be already resting on some resistance level, or may never reach 39.
Also maybe you need to take day off to monitor stock


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> but honestly, I would not bet on it now, the risks are too high.


So now you are saying that you think we've hit somewhat of a bottom?

Is that what you're trying to say? That's what it sounds like. 

And I'm not bleeding that badly, yet. I've done quite well compared to the market this year. However, I would just like to retain this, but I do not want to "step out" of the market. There is always money to be made. I don't really believe in "stepping out" of the market.

Either you make money on the way up, or you make it on the way down.


----------



## zylon

KaeJS said:


> ... but is it too risky at this point to sell all of my positions and purchase 1000 TZA at $39?


You might want to consider this note from a pro; posted at noon today.

http://www.grandich.com/2011/11/tradersgamblers-only/


----------



## KaeJS

*zylon*

That's exactly what I'm afraid of, and the only thing I'm afraid of.

Because the market _is_ oversold, companies _are_ profitable, and you have this whole black friday/christmas season thing going on.

Maybe it's best to hold out until Monday and see what happens..


----------



## ddkay

Our retail brokerages don't allow futures trading, otherwise like that guy in the m-x.ca webinar showed you can hedge by creating synthetic cash positions by shorting contracts of SXM (TSX60) or ES (S&P500), that way you control a piece of the indexes and keep your other portfolio longs.

I don't like hedging with options because you pay huge premiums and get destroyed by time decay if your timing is off. I have lost way too much money on options, what usually happens is that my thesis is right but timing is off, and it expires. So no thank you I will not play with those grenades anymore, maybe consider writing contracts in the future when my account size gets its own area code.

Honestly, it's just more simple to step out. If you don't own every stock under the sun, it's even more simple and you save on sale commission fees.


----------



## sags

They say a lot of traders and fund managers will be away for 4 days.

It will be interesting to see if anything happens that causes them all to rush back into work, or it will be peaceful.

Smaller volume usually means more volatility.


----------



## Argonaut

Defense is nice here. Dividend paying stocks, gold, and cash (half USD). I wouldn't make any aggressive moves, that time has passed. Keeping heads up for some true bargains. Canadian bank stocks starting to have some nice yields.


----------



## Belguy

As a dedicated buy-and-holder, I have sold nothing!!

Now I know how the kamikaze pilots must have felt!!


----------



## KaeJS

Belguy said:


> As a dedicated buy-and-holder, I have sold nothing!!
> 
> Now I know how the kamikaze pilots must have felt!!


I hope you have some dividend payers.


----------



## Belguy

Somehow, I don't think that my dividends are covering my losses!!


----------



## Betzy

Smoked? uh yeah my a... is on fire pretty good, but I am in this stock game for the long haul, anyone looking to hedge at some point with some leap calls on the good dividend stocks? TD, RY, FTS...seems maybe like a good time to grab some good ones and guarantee a 5-10% annual return.


----------



## marina628

I went with BNS ,TD ,FTS and ENB.I was talking to my dad about fortis tonight ,he remembers paying $12.00 a share at one stage and then the stock split ,do you guys know when that happened?He has owned it FOREVER lol


----------



## KaeJS

Didn't FTS do a split around 2006?

Edit: 4-for-1 Stock Split, October 2005.


----------



## marina628

Was this the only stock split ?When i say forever I mean he has owned it for 30+ years maybe lol .My father lives in Newfoundland and he bought the stock when they sent forms out with the Newfoundland light and power bill ,you put your order in and mailed a cheque.It may have been when the IPO was registered way back ,I left home in 1985 and he owned it then.


----------



## sags

Belguy.........take heart.

Helicopter Ben will be coming soon to save the day.

Wait.......is this him coming now? 

Business reporter Les Nesman is reporting live from the scene.............

_I'm here with hundreds of people who have gathered to witness what has been described as perhaps the greatest event in Thanksgiving Day history. All we know for sure is that in a very few moments there are going to be a lot of happy people out here. Now the crowd is......... 

The... the crowd is uh... curious but well behaved. And I think I hear something now. Uh... The crowd is moving out into the parking area. And... oh yes! I can see it now. It's a... it's a... helicopter and it's coming this way! 

It's flying something behind it and I can't quite make it out. It's a large banner and it says H A P P Y... T H A N K S... giving... from the F..E..D.

What a sight, ladies and gentlemen. What a sight. The 'copter seems to circling the parking area now. I guess it's looking for a place to land. No! Something just came out of the back of a helicopter. It's a dark object, perhaps a skydiver plummeting to the earth from only two thousand feet in the air... There's a third... No parachutes yet... Those can't be skydivers. I can't tell just yet what they are but... Oh my God! They're turkeys! Oh no! 

Oh, they're crashing to the earth right in front of our eyes! One just went through the windshield of a parked car! This is terrible! Everyone's running around pushing each other. Oh my goodness! Oh, the humanity! People are running about. The turkeys are hitting the ground like sacks of wet cement! 

Folks, I don't know how much longer... The crowd is running for their lives. I think I'm going to step inside. I can't stand here and watch this anymore. No, I can't go in there. Children are searching for their mothers and oh, not since the Hindenberg tragedy has there been anything like this. I don't know how much longer I can hold my position here, Johnny. The crowd... _


----------



## KaeJS

Hm. Not sure if this was the only split. I only went back 10 years.


----------



## humble_pie

_" I don't like hedging with options because you pay huge premiums and get destroyed by time decay if your timing is off. I have lost way too much money on options, what usually happens is that my thesis is right but timing is off, and it expires. So no thank you I will not play with those grenades anymore, maybe consider writing contracts in the future when my account size gets its own area code."_

ddkay you've "lost" money in your non-trading paper option account because all you've practiced, so far, is short-term impulse buying, which unfortunately is what most of the newbs do. It doesn't matter how many stars & crosses a technical chart may be decked out with, the bottom line is that a leveraged short term play has a high risk of failure & so it's an impulsive move.

your thesis was right but timing was off and so the option expired ? that's par for the course. The cure is not to post up bitter memorials to simplistic losses, but to go out longer in time & learn how to set up paired strategies.

as i've mentioned before, it's the sellers of options who make money, not the short-term speculator/buyers. In the long history of organized exchange-traded options there's only ever been one short-term monodirectional success story. And we all know who he is.

it's not necessary to have a large account. My first options were sold against an account that held a paltry 18k in common stock. I had a great mentor, though.


----------



## ddkay

Yes to make it work I have to buy way further out in time. So let's try this. You have no positions. How would you set up for a theoretical Santa rally (ie mostly biased long)? Looking at a 8/8/11 10% type of upside crash again.


----------



## humble_pie

santa rally is 4 weeks. Four. Weeks. Way too short term for me.

the most i would bestir myself to do for saint nick is decide whether to rescue/roll short january puts now, when they'd do better if things get worse, or later in 2011, when they'd do better in a rally ...


----------



## londoncalling

not sure if this is the right thread for this comment but anyways:

With all the recent down pressure on stocks why am I having difficulty getting my entry tragets hit. I seem to find some stocks that I want to purchase but when I place an order to buy they seem to climb and never come back. This happened to me with IPL a couple of months ago and again with a few others in the past couple weeks. I mainly purchase dividend stocks. Is it because everybody is chasing yield during this volatility? I'd like to say it's cuz I only pick winners but that would just be fooling myself and nobody else  The only way I can think to circumvent this is to place my bid above the current ask. However, it would be doubly painful for me to do that and watch the stock drop that day to my original target entry price. Can others here offer wisdom on how they determine entry points? Perhaps I just need to be more patient. Or maybe my targets are too low?

Cheers!


----------



## KaeJS

It could be patience, that your targets are too low, or both.

Which stock are you looking to buy, and what's your target price?

Depends how badly you want the stock. Are you risk averse?

Depends on how many shares you are buying, also.

If I am only buying 100 shares, I don't fret over a 10,20, 25 cent spread. It's only $10, $20 or $25 you are giving up.

If you are buying 1000 shares, then its a little different.

Another thing to take into consideration is what are your plans for the stock? If you are trading, then your target price is a huge deal. If you are holding for long term... it shouldn't matter as much.


----------



## doctrine

People are chasing yield. My financials are way down, but that has almost entirely been offset by oddities like ENB being up 30%. Either way, if you're looking for utility type stocks to hit a price, they won't, unless its a calamity week or day.


----------



## londoncalling

KaeJS said:


> It could be patience, that your targets are too low, or both.
> 
> Which stock are you looking to buy, and what's your target price?
> 
> Depends how badly you want the stock. Are you risk averse?
> 
> Depends on how many shares you are buying, also.
> 
> If I am only buying 100 shares, I don't fret over a 10,20, 25 cent spread. It's only $10, $20 or $25 you are giving up.
> 
> If you are buying 1000 shares, then its a little different.
> 
> Another thing to take into consideration is what are your plans for the stock? If you are trading, then your target price is a huge deal. If you are holding for long term... it shouldn't matter as much.


I try to buy in even lot sizes to increase a chance of a fill. You do raise a good point about small spreads on long term holdings. I am probably being too short sighted or as they say penny wise and pound foolish. Thanks KAEJS


----------



## londoncalling

doctrine said:


> People are chasing yield. My financials are way down, but that has almost entirely been offset by oddities like ENB being up 30%. Either way, if you're looking for utility type stocks to hit a price, they won't, unless its a calamity week or day.


That's what I thought was happening just needed a vote of confidence. With all the volatitity have to be more patient and also consider bumping my targets slightly. would hate to miss a great long term hold over a few pennies


----------



## blin10

Back in a day I wanted to buy 1000 petro canada shares and set a limit which missed by ONE cent... later on stock went $10 up and petro got bought out by suncor, man was I pissed.... after that, if I want to buy something I just load it up at market price, never again will i set a limit and chase those extra few cents



londoncalling said:


> not sure if this is the right thread for this comment but anyways:
> 
> With all the recent down pressure on stocks why am I having difficulty getting my entry tragets hit. I seem to find some stocks that I want to purchase but when I place an order to buy they seem to climb and never come back. This happened to me with IPL a couple of months ago and again with a few others in the past couple weeks. I mainly purchase dividend stocks. Is it because everybody is chasing yield during this volatility? I'd like to say it's cuz I only pick winners but that would just be fooling myself and nobody else  The only way I can think to circumvent this is to place my bid above the current ask. However, it would be doubly painful for me to do that and watch the stock drop that day to my original target entry price. Can others here offer wisdom on how they determine entry points? Perhaps I just need to be more patient. Or maybe my targets are too low?
> 
> Cheers!


----------



## Assetologist

You have to assess your true pain thresholds - what hurts more?:
- buying the shares you want and watching them drop OR
- not buying them when they are on sale

I am primarily hunting for very solid, large-cap, dividend growth stocks so try to get a starter position at a 'reasonable' price then add on the dips. This allows me a degree of psychological defense in the situation that the share price never drops low enough as the unrealized capital gains increase.

With the very low transaction fees this is not an unreasonable plan especially for the 'one decision' stocks.

Good Luck


----------



## ddkay

Zero Hedge is on a roll, we have got to bounce soon. This is seriously scary stuff. I might start posting pictures of kittens to break up the bad news.


----------



## KaeJS

Well, at least so far tomorrow is looking bad, but not completely murderous. 

This could just be due to the holiday, though. 

A bounce would be nice, though.


----------



## Causalien

Zerohedge is good for the data they present and I don't like how it's getting more influential. People seem to forget that these are anonymous hedgies who have their own agenda to push.


----------



## hboy43

ddkay said:


> I might start posting pictures of kittens to break up the bad news.


I am more of a dog person.

hboy43


----------



## Lephturn

Assetologist said:


> You have to assess your true pain thresholds - what hurts more?:
> - buying the shares you want and watching them drop OR
> - not buying them when they are on sale
> 
> I am primarily hunting for very solid, large-cap, dividend growth stocks so try to get a starter position at a 'reasonable' price then add on the dips. This allows me a degree of psychological defense in the situation that the share price never drops low enough as the unrealized capital gains increase.
> 
> With the very low transaction fees this is not an unreasonable plan especially for the 'one decision' stocks.
> 
> Good Luck


I can't do it in registered unfortunately (which is STUPID, but I digress...) but in an open account this is why I sell puts to get in. Worst case is it takes off without me and I don't get the stock, but I made some money anyway. If I really want it I can always pull the trigger later on or sell put again higher and wait on a pullback.

Long term success is about controlling risk and not losing money - don't waste time lamenting the trades you could have made.

That said, for highly liquid stocks in registered accounts where the spread is only a penny during normal market hours, I don't have a problem with a market order.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Lephturn said:


> Long term success is about controlling risk and not losing money - don't waste time lamenting the trades you could have made.


+1!


----------



## dubmac

Interesting to see which stocks have weathered the past 3 months particularly well - again - BCE, Telus, and ZRE - seems to have come thru (so far) particularly well. These stocks have helped "prop up" the losses so far. BCE has gone up (1%) and paid it's divvy as well....I just wish I was better at finding these gems in the carnage called investing


----------



## Causalien

On the tech front. ATVI, SWI, TSLA and... finally got a stock name for this: HIWIN TECH CORP TWD10


----------



## fatcat

Causalien said:


> Zerohedge is good for the data they present and I don't like how it's getting more influential. People seem to forget that these are anonymous hedgies who have their own agenda to push.


 true enough and they make david rosenberg look like a bull ... however, they are consistently way ahead of just about every major business news outlet on story after story ... i love how the globe went after them when they make the globe look like a free shopper


----------



## Causalien

They Are afterall, the elite hedgies in the industry. An outsider can only hope to discuss the issue with them on equal footing.


----------



## Argonaut

dubmac said:


> Interesting to see which stocks have weathered the past 3 months particularly well - again - BCE, Telus, and ZRE - seems to have come thru (so far) particularly well. These stocks have helped "prop up" the losses so far. BCE has gone up (1%) and paid it's divvy as well....*I just wish I was better at finding these gems in the carnage called investing*


This is my favourite kind of stock for a buy and hold. The tollbooth stock. Simple, steady business with predictable income. Telecoms, REITs, pipelines, railroads, utilities. May be easier to find than you think.


----------



## londoncalling

Assetologist said:


> You have to assess your true pain thresholds - what hurts more?:
> - buying the shares you want and watching them drop OR
> - not buying them when they are on sale
> 
> I am primarily hunting for very solid, large-cap, dividend growth stocks so try to get a starter position at a 'reasonable' price then add on the dips. This allows me a degree of psychological defense in the situation that the share price never drops low enough as the unrealized capital gains increase.
> 
> With the very low transaction fees this is not an unreasonable plan especially for the 'one decision' stocks.
> 
> Good Luck


This seems to make a lot of sense. Once I have an initial position I assume I won't feel like I am missing out. Essentially the question does come down to what hurts more?

From my experience I feel more hurt when I miss a buy and it goes up 5% than when I buy and have a 10-15% drop. From anything I've read this is contrary to most investor psychology. 

Seeing as my horizon is about 30 years I shouldn't quibble over a couple of dollars as I am guessing that unless I look back at my numbers the difference in entry price would seem quite inconsequential let alone memorable.


----------



## kcowan

londoncalling said:


> From my experience I feel more hurt when I miss a buy and it goes up 5% than when I buy and have a 10-15% drop. From anything I've read this is contrary to most investor psychology.


Yes if this is true, you are well-qualified to be a contrarian investor!


----------



## KaeJS

In the process of getting slaughtered.

Down 2.7%

Anyone else?


----------



## Toronto.gal

I think Belguy.


----------



## Abha

Just a weak hands flushout. I'm loading up for Turnaround Tuesday.


----------



## Four Pillars

Toronto.gal said:


> I think Belguy.


Lol.


----------



## sensfan15

Abha said:


> Just a weak hands flushout. I'm loading up for Turnaround Tuesday.


Based on what?


----------



## gibor365

Abha said:


> Just a weak hands flushout. I'm loading up for Turnaround Tuesday.


I also have a feeling that Tue, Wed will be turn around....Not really loading, but have some buy limits...


----------



## kcowan

Up - down - up - down. What's new? A long sideways motion lasting for years!


----------



## andrewf

Wouldn't a strangle work well then?


----------



## gibor365

Last half an hour VIX dropped more than 2% .... any news in media?


----------



## Jon_Snow

XRE, XDV, BCE, XSB saved my bacon today.

VEA not so much... Down less than 1% today. My portfolio mix seems to work pretty well in today's market casino.


----------



## gibor365

Funny that XDV called DIVIDEND ETF and pays less than 2% dividends... even TSX60 pays more


----------



## Sampson

gibor said:


> Funny that XDV called DIVIDEND ETF and pays less than 2% dividends... even TSX60 pays more


How do you figure 2%? XDV has paid out ~$0.77 per unit this year. Average price in and around $20 makes for over 4% yield.


----------



## gibor365

Sampson said:


> How do you figure 2%? XDV has paid out ~$0.77 per unit this year. Average price in and around $20 makes for over 4% yield.


Sorry  It's not me, it's TDW publishes yield 1.94%

http://www.tdwaterhouse.ca/markets-research/markets/index.jsp


----------



## Abha

So much for Turnaround Tuesday. More like "trash his portfolio Tuesday". 

I had huge gains in the morning only to watch them all vanish late in the afternoon. Now have a basket of slightly down stocks and TNA.

Got too greedy. Lesson learned.


----------



## gibor365

Abha said:


> So much for Turnaround Tuesday. More like "trash his portfolio Tuesday".


...and stocks I was thinking to buy on dip and sell after dividends AGNC and NLY both were up


----------



## humble_pie

this is another example of why investors should do their own research in depth & should never rely on superficial stock screeners, quote vendors etc.

XDV is indeed paying north of 4%. What the quote vendor software is doing - in tdw's case it's thomson reuters - is taking the most recent monthly dividend payout, which was 3 and a fraction pennies, & multiplying that by 12 to arrive at the wildly inaccurate annual dividend guesstimate of .39, or 1.94%, as the system dutifully but wrongfully displays.

XDV's dividends are unusual in that the cash amounts fluctuate wildly from month to month.

this is another proof that investors need to check & recheck & then double-check. Double-check history of dividends at a company's own website, for example. Know that stock screeners & quote vendors estimates of yields can be hopelessly inaccurate. Never rely on these.

never rely on tips from anonymous investment forums, either, for that matter.


----------



## KaeJS

Abha said:


> So much for Turnaround Tuesday. More like "trash his portfolio Tuesday".
> 
> I had huge gains in the morning only to watch them all vanish late in the afternoon. Now have a basket of slightly down stocks and TNA.
> 
> Got too greedy. Lesson learned.


Same thing happened to me, except I ignored the market today for the most part.

Right now, I am having a huge love-*hate* relationship with the market.


----------



## dogcom

Mark Carney warning about the deleverage risk and how real it is should make you think that you should hold a lot of cash and wait for the opportunities to come later in 2012. Most central bankers will not be so blunt and will not tell you like it is. 

Most often you hear what economists say and they are usually wrong. But I think Mr. Carney has a much better handle on things and it is a breath of fresh air to hear him tell it like it is.


----------



## sensfan15

There is no reason for any sort of optimism right now anywhere. How much worse will things get?


----------



## ddkay

No one can price in the worst case scenario because variables are changing every second and the financial sector is designed for a consistent lack of transparency. The thing to be optimistic about is that we are still in a nice trading range environment, the market doesn't want to go lower and hasn't made new lows--to me that's a signal that for now there are more bulls than bears. All of Europe is on downgrade watch which is what I think this afternoons market were trying to frontrun, like it did with the FOMC meeting in the morning. We're getting closer to the middle of the month, this week will be important especially Thursday.. at least to me to see if my model has any significance.

Without a doubt choppiness has reduced the number of market participants (http://www.ifre.com/low-vol-reflects-light-positions/1618565.article), most people left trading are those that have to, that lends to further choppy price action you see chasing momentum, as well as venom.


----------



## KaeJS

There goes my life savings...


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> There goes my life savings...
> 
> QUOTE]
> 
> 
> ...and my early retirement
> KaeJS , you are still young...think Belguy


----------



## KaeJS

I know I am young. I was always bullish, but I feel like everyday I am slowly morphing into a bear. 

People are too concerned with Europe...

Companies are still making money and people are still spending. The market has more volatility that it needs to have. People need to chill... (myself included )


----------



## Abha

@Kae 

Did you get hit with a margin call?


----------



## KaeJS

No margin call,

I can still handle quite a few more days like today before I need to worry about that.


----------



## Lephturn

Volatility is what it is - but it's been saying some interesting things this week.

http://www.optionpit.com/blog/what-happened-vix

I'm hoping to see it drop to 20 - and the iVol come down on a few stocks I trade like AAPL so I can position for Jan earnings cheaply.


----------



## ddkay

This thread is a little quiet. Getting smoked on my knife catch. For now anyway, recap provision is supposed to be submitted tomorrow.


----------



## Jungle

Smokey the bear is back this morning.


----------



## madeincanada

Jungle said:


> Smokey the bear is back this morning.


Glad the bear is back, so us folks that are under-invested can get in.


----------



## Jungle

Yea I just need it to go down another 20% then would love to add some positions!


----------



## killuminati

Any ideas on why the big plunge? Is today a good day to grab some shares that have dropped or is this sign of more to come?


----------



## webber22

The time to buy is when Belguy chirps in


----------



## Toronto.gal

killuminati said:


> Any ideas on why the big plunge?


A number of reasons. If you want to buy, buy in tranches.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/06/opening-bell-markets-slump-as-greek-default-fears-loom/

I was wondering where Belguy might be hiding?


----------



## humble_pie

t.gal he feels less anxious now that Alice is looking out for him.

right now they're racing down the fast lane to the harbour. Alice has propped the Dormouse up in her straw bicycle basket with a large silk tasselled pillow, so he doesn't bang around too much when she bikes fast.


----------



## ddkay

Now it matters, now it doesn't. 

03:38 PM EST, 03/06/2012 -- Greece has threatened today to default on any of its bondholders who do not take part in this week's euro 206 bln debt swap, taking ADRs and ETFs of European banks lower as a result.

The exchange traded fund for European banks, iShares MSCI Europe Financials Index (EUFN), is down 5.47% and $0.99 to $17.04. Deutsche Bank (DB) is off by 6.65% to $43.52. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is at $8.14, lower by 6.33%. (UBS) is down 5.50% to $13.07.


----------



## newbi

got smoked


----------



## gibor365

newbi said:


> got smoked


me too  I think from all "herd" I hold, only PMZ.UN is up.... BCE and RCI were OK until afternoon and dropped too...


----------



## Spudd

Everything I hold was red today. Everything!


----------



## fatcat

i heard yesterday on bloomberg that the private debtholders are not happy about the proposed settlement and might be holding out

the guy being interviewed sounded very pessimistic and as though the greek house of cards is going to tumble

for myself, i wish it would and we can move ahead ..


----------



## blin10

fatcat said:


> i heard yesterday on bloomberg that the private debtholders are not happy about the proposed settlement and might be holding out
> 
> the guy being interviewed sounded very pessimistic and as though the greek house of cards is going to tumble
> 
> for myself, i wish it would and we can move ahead ..


+1, it will happen just a matter of time... they simply cannot pay anything back ever


----------



## peterk

I don't even have to check my portfolio anymore. If this post bumps up to the top of the page, I know there's trouble


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Spudd said:


> Everything I hold was red today. Everything!


Bonds and REITs were modestly positive today.


----------



## bayview

Agreed Greek demise is a matter of time. Its is widely discounted despite bailout package. Next will be Italy n Spain n Euro will break. Germany will not anchor bailouts indefinitely -voters will not allow it. The next crisis brewing is actually China which has reduced its growth rate this year. Best hope is China manages a soft landing. Growth below 7% pa for China is disaster which leads to social and economic problems. If you think euro banks are a mess wait till u see the real financial tsumami if china banks blowout. Only propped up by govt, whole mess of bad loans and underprovision throughout the banking system in China. On top of these is the rising Middle East tension. But geopolitics are not fundamentals analysis so watch China in the coming months as well as what Germany is doing not what it is saying. Recent spate of USA data encouraging but too early to confirm recovery is on track; banks are still not lending! In conclusion, an unclear USA recovery, a breaking up Euro and a softening China portend a cautious and volatile outlook ahead.


----------



## Jon_Snow

CanadianCapitalist said:


> Bonds and REITs were modestly positive today.


I've always been overweight in REITs (XRE) and along with a sprinkling of bond funds, today wasn't too bad. BCE is also one of my biggest holdings, and it weathered today quite well. No complaints about my asset allocation these days. I'm probably one of the most under invested folks on this board, so a continuation of this pullback wouldn't be a terrible thing. Feels great to have a whack of cash in the bank sometimes.


----------



## gibor365

CanadianCapitalist said:


> Bonds and REITs were modestly positive today.


REITs not really, only selected. ZRE (weighted) was down 0.41 . XRE was slightly up , only because it's capped and 4-5 of of 10 largest by cap holdings were slightly up...


----------



## Sherlock

I got clobbered by the TSX today.

A few things I was thinking of selling for a nice profit a few days ago took a nosedive, now I gotta hold on.


----------



## Belguy

Two weeks ago, I reduced my equity position by 10 per cent and moved that to 'cash' and I must admit to feeling better after I did that.

Greece, the first domino, will likely default this month and subsequently, there will be more dominoes to fall.

It ain't going to be pretty!!!


----------



## Jungle

Bellguy is back, time to buy guys.


----------



## Belguy

The buyers will become criers!!!


----------



## Cal

Jungle said:


> Bellguy is back, time to buy guys.


One  means it is an ok buying opportunity.

More than two  means to deploy all available cash.


----------



## Belguy

So, go ahead and deploy but just remember that it wasn't me that suggested it!

I am just glad that I have 40 percent bonds, 10 percent REIT's and 10 percent cash. It allows me to sleep well at night!!


----------



## londoncalling

My question is where are you getting that good sleep? on top of the matress or under the bed?


----------



## KaeJS

I wouldn't say I got smoked today. But I definitely took a hit.

And yes, everything I owned was in the red.

I'm not impressed with how my Mutual Funds fared today. So much for professional management  

Seriously thinking about getting out of the MF's now.

All in all, the correction/drop/bearishness was bound to come back. It was inevitable.

I'm just glad I sold out of SU and took my profit a week ago.


----------



## Argonaut

I was only down 0.6% today on the strength of RioCan and my corporate bonds. But I am somewhat worried about my short options; I need gold to stay above $1600. The chart doesn't look good and if there is more downside this week I'll close the spread and open up some more GOOG credits to compensate. I was lucky to sell my SLV contracts; I cashed out at 9.80 and they are sitting at 8.25 and falling. There will be time enough to get back into that trade.


----------



## balk

KaeJS said:


> I wouldn't say I got smoked today. But I definitely took a hit.
> 
> And yes, everything I owned was in the red.
> 
> I'm not impressed with how my Mutual Funds fared today. So much for professional management
> 
> Seriously thinking about getting out of the MF's now.
> 
> All in all, the correction/drop/bearishness was bound to come back. It was inevitable.
> 
> I'm just glad I sold out of SU and took my profit a week ago.



Why would you be in MFs and not index funds? You seem like you are DIY in all the other areas of your portfolio.

Do you not feel that index funds will give you the best chance at long term performance even with the academic literature pointing that way?


----------



## KaeJS

balk said:


> Why would you be in MFs and not index funds? You seem like you are DIY in all the other areas of your portfolio.
> 
> Do you not feel that index funds will give you the best chance at long term performance even with the academic literature pointing that way?


As with most people, I started investing with Mutuals. My RRSP and TFSA are with Mutual Funds, so I need to switch them over.

I will be going DIY soon, I just haven't completed the form to open a TFSA yet at Questrade.

As for index investing - I'm still not sure if that's for me, even with all the academic literature suggesting it's the best way to go. I can't stand the thought of ETF's...


----------



## liquidfinance

Little did I know that yesterday was a buying opportunity. Mine are gained back all the losses from yesterday then some. Though this is probably just a bounce so I'm not going to get too excited just yet.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I can't stand the thought of ETF's...


It's kinda weird to hear from person who still hold MF and even I think some managed portfolio in registered account.


----------



## Barwelle

Yesterday worked out swell for me... I have my TD e-Series set to buy funds every Tuesday!

Though it's only $85, and it wasn't a huge drop in the market... oh well. Baby steps. If it continues to slide, I don't mind at all.

Kae, I also am surprised you still hold MFs considering how active you are. I'd have thought that you'd at least switched them to ETFs or taken them over yourself by now. You say you can't stand the thought of ETFs... and how about the thought of paying someone 2-3% to do something you obviously can do yourself?


----------



## Cal

Belguy said:


> So, go ahead and deploy but just remember that it wasn't me that suggested it!
> 
> I am just glad that I have 40 percent bonds, 10 percent REIT's and 10 percent cash. It allows me to sleep well at night!!


When we deploy our cash, we will let you know, and if we are wrong, you have full permission to have the last laugh.


----------



## Belguy

I will never gloat!! The day of Greece's default, later this month, may give you an opportunity to deploy!! Keep that finger on the trigger!!! The day that Israel bombs Iran's nuclear facilities may be another golden buying opportunity!! The day of Iran's retaliation against Israel may be another such opportunity. There are always Black Swan events coming down the pipe. That is what makes me an eternal optimist!!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> I will never gloat!!


You're no gloater Belguy, we know that; you're just gloomy! 

You forgot the most important date, that is, Dec.22nd [or 21st] 2012; keep your cash for that date as there will be great buying opportunities [or maybe none].


----------



## jamesbe

away on business yesterday and today. Checked last night, ouch!! Check now and whoa I've doubled back the losses today.


----------



## Eder

Argonaut said:


> I was only down 0.6% today on the strength of RioCan and my corporate bonds. .


What is the average duration of your corporate bonds if you don't mind me asking.

I bought a bunch of BBB 30-35 year stuff when analysts were saying to keep durations short. They have outperformed the equity portion of my investments since.(like 14 months or so)


----------



## dave2012

Nice bounce back today. My PBN bounced back a whopping 9.04%!


----------



## KaeJS

Barwelle said:


> Kae, I also am surprised you still hold MFs considering how active you are. I'd have thought that you'd at least switched them to ETFs or taken them over yourself by now. You say you can't stand the thought of ETFs... and how about the thought of paying someone 2-3% to do something you obviously can do yourself?


The MER is 1.6%, but I'm scared to manage it myself in case I screw up big time.

I will get rid of them shortly.


----------



## jamesbe

As I said in another thread though, if someone else manages and screws it up big time. Is that really any consolation? You can blame them but it is nothing more than that, you'll then most likely blame yourself for not taking it into your own hands.

If you screw it up, I guess you have no one else to blame but whatever...


----------



## KaeJS

jamesbe, it has nothing to do with the "blame game".

I can admit when I've made a mistake.

I just rather not rush into anything if I don't yet feel 100% comfortable with taking it all on myself.

In any case, I'm more concerned about my non-registered portfolio at the moment, as I am still trying to clear up this last little bit of remaining margin ASAP.


----------



## Belguy

The actual investments that you hold in your portfolio is not nearly as important as getting your asset allocation right according to your own particular goals and circumstances.

Unfortunately, most investors devote far more time and attention to the contents of their portfolio than to the proper asset allocation of that portfolio.


----------



## Causalien

jamesbe said:


> As I said in another thread though, if someone else manages and screws it up big time. Is that really any consolation? You can blame them but it is nothing more than that, you'll then most likely blame yourself for not taking it into your own hands.
> 
> If you screw it up, I guess you have no one else to blame but whatever...


Being blamed sucks.

I was on the receiving end of the blame twice and it sucks. Since then I always tell people I can't advice them on investment decisions. I did it because I felt superior. The ego boost overwhelmed reasoning.


----------



## Jungle

Belguy said:


> The actual investments that you hold in your portfolio is not nearly as important as getting your asset allocation right according to your own particular goals and circumstances.
> 
> Unfortunately, most investors devote far more time and attention to the contents of their portfolio than to the proper asset allocation of that portfolio.


That is really well said and after last year I start tracking all our investment returns, I found out why it's important not to mess with allocation


----------



## balk

KaeJS said:


> As with most people, I started investing with Mutuals. My RRSP and TFSA are with Mutual Funds, so I need to switch them over.
> 
> I will be going DIY soon, I just haven't completed the form to open a TFSA yet at Questrade.
> 
> As for index investing - I'm still not sure if that's for me, even with all the academic literature suggesting it's the best way to go. I can't stand the thought of ETF's...


What is with the dislike of ETFs?


----------



## Argonaut

Eder said:


> What is the average duration of your corporate bonds if you don't mind me asking.
> 
> I bought a bunch of BBB 30-35 year stuff when analysts were saying to keep durations short. They have outperformed the equity portion of my investments since.(like 14 months or so)


8.69 years via XCB. My portfolio isn't large enough to warrant buying individual bonds, and I'm willing to pay a MER for some diversification. The fund seems to be working as designed and acts as a good place to park my cash and increase margin for short options.


----------



## Belguy

My main bond investment is the PH&N Bond Fund D which has had similar returns to XCB:

https://www.phn.com/Default.aspx?tabid=524

http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/XCB.htm


----------



## bayview

Latest Greek Bailout

WSJ: No Winners in Ugly Greek Debt Deal, Only Lessons!

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/03/09/no-winners-in-ugly-greek-debt-deal-only-lessons/


----------



## KaeJS

What the flock happened to the TSX today?

The return on the TSX so far this year is effectively 0.5%. What a joke. 

Meanwhile, the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ are all high as flock.

What's going on here?


----------



## Belguy

Energy and materials were the biggest sector losers today and the TSX is heavily weighted in those areas. As has often been stated, the TSX is not a well diversified exchange and so you should construct a well balanced portfolio taking that into account. Too many Canadians have potentially too much concentration in the Canadian market.

DIVERSIFY!!!


----------



## KaeJS

I don't think diversification would have saved anyone from a Red Day today. :hopelessness:


----------



## doctrine

No, but I was down 0.57% vs the benchmark of 1.76%. I was also up about 0.4% yesterday while the TSX was down 0.8%. My weighting to basic materials is 0%.


----------



## blin10

tsx is oil/gas/gold based....



KaeJS said:


> What the flock happened to the TSX today?
> 
> The return on the TSX so far this year is effectively 0.5%. What a joke.
> 
> Meanwhile, the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ are all high as flock.
> 
> What's going on here?


----------



## jamesbe

ACQ up again ! LOL saving my bacon


----------



## indexxx

Yay for IO!


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Belguy said:


> Energy and materials were the biggest sector losers today and the TSX is heavily weighted in those areas. As has often been stated, the TSX is not a well diversified exchange and so you should construct a well balanced portfolio taking that into account. Too many Canadians have potentially too much concentration in the Canadian market.
> 
> DIVERSIFY!!!


You are funny Belguy. Weren't you saying just a few days back that Canadian markets have performed well, so why bother with foreign markets?


----------



## Argonaut

So is sell in May and go away the way to play? I have been thinking and saying so this year for a plethora of reasons. Though I like to get ahead of the curve and sell in April.

Cash is now sitting at 27% and my little 6% in corporate bonds looks good. My own stock/gold portfolio is defensive anyways and only down 0.17% today. Pay-tience, my friends.

So does oil crashing mean low gas prices this summer? Probably not. :frown:


----------



## Barwelle

Gas stations and the government gotta make money too, you know.

/removes tongue from cheek


----------



## HaroldCrump

The only ones making money is the govt.
I believe gas stations are a very low margin, losing business.
The gas part of it, at least.
They make money from selling other stuff.

The govt. rake it in without having to lift a finger.


----------



## dogcom

I have been holding gold stocks for the past two weeks and it feels more like slow roasting then being smoked. I think the slow cooking in gold stocks will continue until it is just right which for many will mean they are done, but for me hopefully it will be a feast at some point.


----------



## Jungle

Got smoked today, this is actually good for long term buyers. I increased rsp and started TFSA dca again. If it really gets bad, then I will add to certain stocks again.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

dogcom said:


> I have been holding gold stocks for the past two weeks and it feels more like slow roasting then being smoked. I think the slow cooking in gold stocks will continue until it is just right which for many will mean they are done, but for me hopefully it will be a feast at some point.


dog 
i am actually surprised gold/silver and copper did not sellof today.
actually i think we had a mini selloff.
GL with ur gold stocks though.
cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

HaroldCrump said:


> The only ones making money is the govt.
> 
> I believe gas stations are a very low margin, losing business.
> The gas part of it, at least.
> They make money from selling other stuff.
> 
> The govt. rake it in without having to lift a finger.


Low margin, I can believe. 

Losing doesn't make sense with Loblaws and Costco jumping into the market relatively recently. I'm not sure when Sobeys and Parkland Income Fund started.

Then too, supposedly only twenty-six percent of Canadian gas stations are under the price control of one of the nine refiners/marketers and sixteen percent under the big three oil companies.

I'm not quite convinced that the other seventy-four percent are completely free to set the price as they see fit.
http://www.kentmarketingservices.com/dnn/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=nBz8XZMPQEc=&tabid=40 


Cheers


----------



## HaroldCrump

Eclectic12 said:


> Low margin, I can believe.
> Losing doesn't make sense with Loblaws and Costco jumping into the market relatively recently. I'm not sure when Sobeys and Parkland Income Fund started.


I can't say how many retail gas vendors are truly losing money and how many are barely managing to keep their heads above water, but it is not an attractive business by any means.
Most try to eke out extra profits by selling overpriced pop, chips, windshield wasters, and other corner store type stuff.

This situation has exacerbated in the last couple of years.

Just as an example:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23904590/ns/business-retail/t/stations-hope-you-fill-more-gas/

Article above is from the US, but I have seen similar commentary for Canadian retail gas stations too.

In my area, I have seen a few gas stations abandon their outlets and others have changed hands several times in the last 3 - 4 years.
From Sunoco to Petro Canada to Esso to whatever else.

The only one raking it in are the various levels of governments that add both fixed rate and % rate taxes on top of retail gas sales.


----------



## doctrine

I'm down only 0.17% today. Fully invested, and I've just moved money into my account to buy next week. Although I'll be buying all summer long, hopefully energy and financials stay low. Energy companies are already there. My small caps have been ruling.


----------



## Four Pillars

Did the markets go down today?


----------



## Belguy

Hang in there because, coming soon, will be the mother of all buying opportunities!! The market charts for the past three days do not paint a pretty picture and the problems in Europe are only just at the beginning stage. After Greece and Spain etc., the problems will spread to the core nations of first France and then Germany and then all hell will break loose. The problems will persist for the next several years and there is very little that investors can do about it. What a wonderful time to be a retiree!!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Belguy said:


> Hang in there because, coming soon, will be the mother of all buying opportunities!! The market charts for the past three days do not paint a pretty picture and the problems in Europe are only just at the beginning stage. After Greece and Spain etc., the problems will spread to the core nations of first France and then Germany and then all hell will break loose. The problems will persist for the next several years and there is very little that investors can do about it. What a wonderful time to be a retiree!!


glad ur a retiree .
good times to be a trader:greedy_dollars:


----------



## dogcom

The big scare for retirees is if the Fed and the rest of the central banks go hog wild and print and destroy the value of safe holdings of the retirees. If this doesn't happen then stocks crash so that does make it very hard for a retiree to know what to do. it really does sound like you will need some gold bullion holdings to protect yourself while keeping your money safe.


----------



## uptoolate

four pillars said:


> did the markets go down today?


+1 lol


----------



## kcowan

> (traders) have witnessed a radical transformation of the best capital allocation market system in the world, into one where:
> 
> - 13 stock exchanges cater to hyper traders who game the system, chasing exchange rebates, and leveraging speed for the purpose of a nanosecond scalping dance.
> - More than 40 dark pools together trade more than 1/3rd of all shares.
> - Conflicts of interest abound as exchanges own stakes in dark pools, and HFT firms own stakes in exchanges.
> - Brokerage firm internalization of trades feeds the HFT financial modeling of investor orders.
> - Exchange data feeds act as a veritable DVR of investor orders and behavior, the recording of which is then sold to HFTs.
> - Rogue exchange traded products break down, trap unsophisticated investors, and only enrich the issuers, exchanges, and HFT firms that make markets in them.
> - HFT firms in the last decade have achieved wondrous profitability (double-digit Sharpe ratios) while investors at best have clawed back to even.
> - More than $1 billion in customer-segregated monies goes missing from MF Global, with not a single prosecution, nor a hope of redress.
> 
> As they witness all of the above, traditional retail and institutional investors see that our regulators must be having a challenging time acting as effective policemen in the marketplace:
> 
> - Flash orders, which give HFTs a quick peak at retail and institutional orders, are still alive and well, under many different names, despite a proposed banning of them in 2009.
> - Dark pool regulation, also proposed years back, has not materialized.
> - Internalizing brokerage/HFT firms, which clearly played a huge role in the market melt-down on May 6th (perhaps as well in the financial crisis in late 2008 and 2009) still practice the same way, with additional help from dark pools and exchanges who have all embraced “liquidity provider” programs.
> - And finally, payment for order flow (PFOF) is alive and well on numerous levels throughout the system – from retail, to maker/taker exchange pricing, to free dark pool executions.


Joseph Saluzziand Sal L. Arnuk of ThemisTrading.com
Symptoms of why investors are unhappy with trading returns.


----------



## Belguy

In just the past week along, the TSX was down 2.99% and is now down 0.50% YTD in the context of an economy where hiring is slowing and the pace of the recovery is the worst in history coming out of a recession. Fewer of the unemployed are looking for work and are giving up their search in frustration. There is no optimism out there that they economy is gaining traction and downside risk abounds. As an investor, about the only thing that you can fall back on is that this may all present future buying opportunities. In the meantime, keeping your portfolio in a defensive bent might be the prudent way to go.

By the way, if you were looking for reassurance from the U.S. markets, the DOW lost 1.44% last week, the S&P was down 2.44% and the Nasdaq gave up 3.68% of it's value. 

This might be slight evidence that the large caps will be the better (a relative word) choice in these uncertain economic times.


----------



## ddkay

The American Who Quit Money To Live In A Cave


----------



## blin10

ddkay said:


> The American Who Quit Money To Live In A Cave


what an complete idiot, money will become obsolete? then there will be some other type of currency... world would be in chaos if nobody did anything, kids wouldn't go to school, etc... money is a form of life regulation and without it world would be in a worse place


----------



## webber22

Now that's funny ...... It might suit Belguy, except maybe for the part about eating roadkill, and dumpster dives


----------



## KaeJS

blin10 said:


> what an complete idiot, money will become obsolete?


I thought the same thing when I watched that.

Money will never become obsolete.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm perfectly happy with my capitalistic ways and being able to control my surroundings, like temperature, receive healthcare, and not have to eat dead animals on the side of the road. But, hey. That's just me....

And then you have the guy crying because his $500k house was worth $300k and he says "The other $200k just disappeared".

Lol... yeah, well, at one time, when that house was $300k, that $200k just "appeared" anyway.


----------



## Argonaut

ddkay said:


> The American Who Quit Money To Live In A Cave


Haha, the snapshot of him and his camp looks like he's one of those homeless wanderers in Fallout 3 or Skyrim. Before a bear or a deathclaw comes and eats him. And then you loot his corpse. Except he won't have any money on him. :frown:


----------



## Causalien

Fallout3 cranked up to super high and super realistic hardcore with mods is an amazing experience. Except when it dies when the 4GB RAM limit is reached and weird unhandled problem occured.
Somebody needs to make fallout 4 on 64 bit system. Not the same re-used engine that is limited to 4GB RAM over and over.


----------



## Cal

Couldn't have been as bad as this guy...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...n-lose-2-billion-in-six-weeks/article2429647/


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Cal said:


> Couldn't have been as bad as this guy...


One more example of risks involved in financial institutions. One is never sure whether risk controls are adequate.


----------



## jet powder

Can the best way to get smoked in the market be when you make money. True or false












I would say it can be true if someone makes money & they have no method that gives them an edge & or they have a method but failed to follow it.

A good trade is when you make or lose money but you had a method that gave you an edge.


----------



## gimme_divies

blin10 said:


> what an complete idiot, money will become obsolete? then there will be some other type of currency... world would be in chaos if nobody did anything, kids wouldn't go to school, etc... money is a form of life regulation and without it world would be in a worse place


Right, because thanks to our wonderful world full of money, everybody on the planet leads a productive life full of important work, everyone has a wonderful education, and there is no starvation, poverty, murder, war, disease....

Sorry, but money is not an essential component of human existence. It is a mechanism that was invented thousands of years ago in a world with no technology and universal scarcity of resources. I agree that money is obsolete, however we are so dependent on it and cannot imagine a world without it that we treat it as though it is as important as air and water.


----------



## Belguy

Sometimes, short term market gains can come from sheer luck rather than any particular skill on the part of the stock picker. However, over the longer period, skill takes on more importance. However, long term, even the best financial managers have a declining performance result when compared to the average returns of the markets. 

Your luck and skills can only carry you so far.


----------



## blin10

it is impossible for all humans to live normal, not to murder, be happy all the time, have wonderful education, etc,etc... why would anyone try to come up with new technologies if everyone had everything? why would rogers offer you service if there was nothing to gain? why would shell sell gas if there would be nothing to gain?... if there was no money we would still probably be lighting up a fire with wood... obviously money is not as important as air or water but it does provide a better life if you have it



gimme_divies said:


> Right, because thanks to our wonderful world full of money, everybody on the planet leads a productive life full of important work, everyone has a wonderful education, and there is no starvation, poverty, murder, war, disease....
> 
> Sorry, but money is not an essential component of human existence. It is a mechanism that was invented thousands of years ago in a world with no technology and universal scarcity of resources. I agree that money is obsolete, however we are so dependent on it and cannot imagine a world without it that we treat it as though it is as important as air and water.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Money is a medium of exchange and valuation.
It is not the root of evil (or happiness).
It is merely a reflection of two facts - (a) scarcity of resources and (b) private ownership of capital.

If (a) were somehow magically resolved i.e. there is plentiful of everything for everybody to meet growing population and needs, we won't need division of labour, and hence the need to exchange goods and services.
If (b) were abolished, theoretically, capital can be directed towards maximizing the social needs of people and not profits.

Condition (a) above represents the utopian view and condition (b) above represents the Marxist/Communist view.

I am not saying whether there are right or wrong, just that money is merely a fetish - it has no substance of its own and cannot be consider good or evil per se.


----------



## gimme_divies

blin10 said:


> it is impossible for all humans to live normal, not to murder, be happy all the time, have wonderful education, etc,etc... why would anyone try to come up with new technologies if everyone had everything? why would rogers offer you service if there was nothing to gain? why would shell sell gas if there would be nothing to gain?... if there was no money we would still probably be lighting up a fire with wood... obviously money is not as important as air or water but it does provide a better life if you have it


Well, ultimately our goal should be to ensure the long-term survival of the human race. Currently we are on an unsustainable path as we plunder and pollute the earth without remorse in the pursuit of larger margins and more profits. If humans actually wanted to help preserve the earth and ensure the long-term survival of the species, technology would not be pursued with the goal of profits, but instead with the goal of providing more use with less resources, eventually trying to make the entire planet run efficiently and effectively with minimal waste and no pollution. If we did not have to work at meaningless jobs to pay debt, then perhaps we could spend our time learning how to make the world run better. As far as I know the greatest discoveries in history were not motivated by money, but were instead borne of curiosity and the desire to advance the cumulative knowledge of mankind. Sure, it is impossible to completely eliminate murder and suffering, but it should be something we strive for. It is not a coincidence that there is more violence in areas where there is less money - so clearly money, or lack thereof, is the cause of the violent behaviour. 

Either way, the status quo is leading us on a path of destruction, and the world financial system is on the brink of collapse. Sure we all live rosy over here and it's easy to praise the wonderful capitalist system that gives us a life of ease, but when it all comes crashing down, then what? Do the same thing all over again?


----------



## blin10

that's a wishful thinking, we both know humans don't work like that, most technological advances came from wars and nations trying to prove who got the bigger [email protected]#k ... 



gimme_divies said:


> Well, ultimately our goal should be to ensure the long-term survival of the human race. Currently we are on an unsustainable path as we plunder and pollute the earth without remorse in the pursuit of larger margins and more profits. If humans actually wanted to help preserve the earth and ensure the long-term survival of the species, technology would not be pursued with the goal of profits, but instead with the goal of providing more use with less resources, eventually trying to make the entire planet run efficiently and effectively with minimal waste and no pollution. If we did not have to work at meaningless jobs to pay debt, then perhaps we could spend our time learning how to make the world run better. As far as I know the greatest discoveries in history were not motivated by money, but were instead borne of curiosity and the desire to advance the cumulative knowledge of mankind. Sure, it is impossible to completely eliminate murder and suffering, but it should be something we strive for. It is not a coincidence that there is more violence in areas where there is less money - so clearly money, or lack thereof, is the cause of the violent behaviour.
> 
> Either way, the status quo is leading us on a path of destruction, and the world financial system is on the brink of collapse. Sure we all live rosy over here and it's easy to praise the wonderful capitalist system that gives us a life of ease, but when it all comes crashing down, then what? Do the same thing all over again?


----------



## eulogy

> technology would not be pursued with the goal of profits, but instead with the goal of providing more use with less resources


Without incentive or reward, thinkers don't really have a reason to do anything other than survive. I'm sure as hell not going to use my engineering knowledge to bend over and just be a slave to societies will's just because society wants renewable energy items. Why be strong, smart or productive when someone else can do it for you?

Your way of thinking is idealistic. You don't seem to see that society will start to grow at the pace of the slowest person. It's like a university class not awarding individual grades, but giving everyone the average on each test, assignment and exam. By the end of the year, everyone is failing because there is no reason to study hard. If you do your mark will always be lower and those that choose not to study/try will benefit from it.

Screw that.


----------



## gimme_divies

eulogy said:


> Without incentive or reward, thinkers don't really have a reason to do anything other than survive. I'm sure as hell not going to use my engineering knowledge to bend over and just be a slave to societies will's just because society wants renewable energy items. Why be strong, smart or productive when someone else can do it for you?
> 
> Your way of thinking is idealistic. You don't seem to see that society will start to grow at the pace of the slowest person. It's like a university class not awarding individual grades, but giving everyone the average on each test, assignment and exam. By the end of the year, everyone is failing because there is no reason to study hard. If you do your mark will always be lower and those that choose not to study/try will benefit from it.
> 
> Screw that.


Call it idealistic, but without a shift in the way we do things, we will not survive as a species. We are already running into water scarcity problems, most of the topsoil in the world is eroded, we are dependent on dirty energy sources that will eventually run out, and guess what, all of these problems are great because more scarcity=more profit. 

If the university class realizes that without working together, the whole class will fail, perhaps then it will start working together to find a way to pass. Kinda like a group project...

But regardless, if you truly believe that what we have is as good as it gets then that's really sad, especially for our children. I guess it's only when we're faced with oblivion that people may start thinking differently. Good luck.


----------



## Argonaut

Market in the slaughterhouse, gold up.. my favourite kind of day!


----------



## dogcom

Right on Argonaut this has been my most profitable day of the year because of gold. Booked profits on HGU today. I owned HGU to get some quick returns while the gold stocks I am holding keep humming along and if they don't the HGU profits I booked will buffer the losses. If we get a nice drop I may put back in HGU positions again for quick profits because I do believe gold stocks are getting very close to a big run.


----------



## avrex

The market bent most of us over today.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Big time. But picked up a couple nice deals today.


----------



## Belguy

Random thoughts from the gurus at CNBC after watching a day of market mayhem:

-Today was the worst June start for the equity markets EVER!
-All 2012 gains for the DOW have now been wiped out.
-Today, the Dow was down 2.24%, the Nasdaq lost 2.82% and the S&P dipped 2.47%
-Both the S&P and the Nasdaq are off more than 10 per cent from their highs and are now officially in correction territory.
-Leading losing sector is energy which lost 17.66%. Oil prices are now at an 8-month low.
-The VIX closed the day at it's highest point in five months.
-The is a market dominated by fear with many investors just trying to preserve what money they have. Investors went to gold today out of this fear. Investors fear that the equity markets have become far too risky and are concerned that things are falling apart and that there is nowhere to hide. There seems to be a crescendo building to the downside and nobody wants to be holding equities. There is nothing positive on the horizon. There is a "perfect storm" of events including poor U.S. job numbers, the mess in Europe which shows no signs of a solution, and a declining growth rate in China. Fear is rising that the U.S. may be on the edge of another recession. U.S. homebuilders' stocks were among the worst hit today and the large banks lost an average of 4 percent. Fears are also rising concerning a potential run on banks on fears of possible bank defaults on the horizon.
-The name of the game now is to protect your assets.

--As an aside, interestingly, the current unemployment rate in the U.S. is 8.6% compared to 5.2% in Germany.

--Does your Obama bumper sticker make you feel stupid yet? 
-
-28% of investors now call themselves bulls and 42% bears. Apparently, the rest don't know what they are.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Gurus at CNBC...I hope you're joking. Their whole job is to get ratings, so it's nothing but extremes. Maybe that explains a lot with all your the "world is going to hell" posts. Turn off the TV!


----------



## indexxx

avrex said:


> The market bent most of us over today.


Ya mon! 'Dis Aapl me holdin' she start 'a rot. Almost everything I hold took a dive- except CTW.V and Mela


----------



## fatcat

the idiots in charge in the old country are fiddling while the world burns ...


----------



## bayview

I believe the markets are going to get worst despite the selloff we sem the ast couple of weeks. I hate it that being bearish is a growing consensus BUT the fundamentals do portend futher selloffs ahead despite intermitTent rallies which areunsustainable because there is no coordinated political will and too many fractional vested interests.

I posted here or another thread about 2 months ago the euro crisis would exacerbate, Greece would be out and the euro 
would break coz Germany would not continue to bailout the crumpling Eurozone. I highlighted that China is the next big fallguy to drag the global economy down now all know China has been slowing down but it is not a growing consensus that odds of a hardlanding in china is rising. China importers are beginning to default and deferred payments of imported commodities ( u can google about this) - another clear sign the economy is grinding diwn besides the weakening PMI.

Those with deep pockets and bottom fishing at this juncture I can understand. It is a trader's market from hereon not for the faint hearted and even mid term horizone say less than 3 years. If you want absolute return and cant trade nor short and dont have deep pockets to stomach the more menacing volatility that is going to characterise the markets in the forseeable future, I would suggest not to enter the markets now except gold if you dont have any.

In summary, IMHO, I think the odds of a markets downturn bigger than the Lehman crisis have risen significantly. Even good stocks like AAPL will be sold down in major market downfall coz Portfolio Managers dont just selloff the poor stocks but also the most liquid and best stocks when facing redemptions and trying to preserve capital while rebalancing their 
portfolios. 

I know there are many more successful and experienced investors than me in this Forum whom I respect. These are just my personal views and my 2 cents contribution.


----------



## sags

Good post and I hadn't considered this before.............

_Even good stocks like AAPL will be sold down in major market downfall coz Portfolio Managers dont just selloff the poor stocks but also the most liquid and best stocks when facing redemptions and trying to preserve capital while rebalancing their 
portfolios. _

Makes sense now. I always thought stronger companies might be safe...... but as you point out, they are the most saleable.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I take it you're not a trader. 

That's where part of the cash comes from & a basic strategy to have, especially during volatile times, to sell a portion of the winning/sellable stocks [not just the losers], when markets climb, and then hold the cash for red days. For example, today I sold a % of a winning stock of mine for 12% profit and used the proceeds to buy another that plunged 8%.

It is not always easy to do; I haven't yet sold any of my AAPL shares despite the considerable gains since I purchased.


----------



## Argonaut

Sell in April and buy in September. You can do this with your eyes closed.. 60% of the time it works every time.


----------



## Belguy

Maybe the time has come to consider alternative investments:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ack-swan-investing-using-etfs/article2449624/


----------



## Toronto.gal

I can't quite do it yet with my eyes closed Argo [and it cost me in 2010, 2011 and 2012]. :rolleyes2: 

Though a basic & winning strategy to have, selling winning stocks [and losing ones for that matter], to raise cash, is not as easy as it sounds.

Mr. Belguy, did you get smoked today?


----------



## Belguy

I hate the stock market!!!


----------



## webber22

Not that long ago on March 30th



Belguy said:


> What a quarter we just had!! The U.S. markets just experienced their best first quarter results in 14 years!!!
> http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/L...eet-closes-out-best-first-quarter-in-14-years
> Buy during periods of maximum pessimism and sell during periods of maximum optimism. Most investors get that exactly the wrong way around.


This is the time when several posters including myself exited the markets using the signal quoted. Now using the same signal, the re-entering has begun - in tranches. Kids, don't try this at home ....


----------



## Jungle

So if Belguy is mad at the stock market, it's time to buy?


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Belguy said:


> I hate the stock market!!!


Yesterday was amazing, yea portfolio got smoked but such a nice sale on everything except gold. What a great chance to make money!


----------



## Lucy

Will next week be more of the same, better or worse?


----------



## Spidey

It's easy for even the most optimistic of investors to get discouraged at times like these. I know that I can't help it at times. But sometimes articles like this help put things into perspective. 



> (MoneyWatch) Perhaps the most infamous of all market forecasts is "The Death of Equities," the cover story of the August 13, 1979 edition of BusinessWeek. In it, the magazine argued that "for better or for worse... the U.S. economy probably has to regard the death of equities as a near-permanent condition." The article's timing could not have been worse -- over the next 20 years the market returned about 18 percent a year.


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_...of-equities-here-we-go-again/?tag=mncol;lst;5


----------



## Toronto.gal

Dopplegangerr said:


> Yesterday was amazing, yea portfolio got smoked but such a nice sale on everything except gold. What a great chance to make money!


Indeed!

I get to practice my trading skills on days like yesterday, LOL. 

But seriously, I sold my bling bling [gold stocks] to pick up some bargains. 

I also recently sold a portion of a couple of long-term stocks for just a tiny profit, but was able to pick them up again at a lower price a few days later, and the very reason why I had sold in the first place.

*Spidey:* you're totally right, but the dark days are when sometimes I make my best decisions [because you're forced to analyze/think outside the box].


----------



## Belguy

It is at times like these that I envy those who retired with a gold-plated public pension plan fully indexed to inflation. It's not a lot of fun trying to grow a privately managed retirement portfolio during times like this.

I think that the article quoted by Spidey above was spot on in it's prediction although published about 30 years too soon.


----------



## Mike59

Belguy said:


> It is at times like these that I envy those who retired with a gold-plated public pension plan fully indexed to inflation. It's not a lot of fun trying to grow a privately managed retirement portfolio during times like this.


Can't say I envy anyone with a pension, in fact I'd take the cash now if it was offered . Who's to say these pension plans will even be around in 10 years. 
Is a bankrupt federal government a suitable backstop if the government bureau or company goes under? 
Given the austerity measures being discussed around the world, if pension plans do exist in 10 or 20 years, I would anticipate serious write downs if not total wipeout. If you can't hold it, you don't own it.
"go on take the money and run" :greedy_dollars: : http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120602/AUTO0103/206020347


----------



## HaroldCrump

Mike59 said:


> Who's to say these pension plans will even be around in 10 years.


The tax payers say so.
The tax payers have signed up for funding the govt. pension plans no matter what.
The govt. can (and will) increase taxes as far as necessary to keep funding the pensions.



> Is a bankrupt federal government a suitable backstop if the government bureau or company goes under?


But the federal govt. isn't bankrupt, not even close - fiscally, at least - moral bankruptcy is another matter ;o) 
The situation in Europe has pretty much ensured that the currencies of US, Canada, the UK, etc. will continue to be safe havens for some time to come.



> Given the austerity measures being discussed around the world, if pension plans do exist in 10 or 20 years, I would anticipate serious write downs if not total wipeout.


Our governments failed to convince a certain category of workers to take even a 1% pay cut in these times of so-called "austerity".
How do you suppose the govt. can manage to eliminate govt. pension plans within 10 - 20 years?

What is far likely to happen are substantial tax increases (in some form or another) to fund the increasing pension liabilities.


----------



## Mike59

HaroldCrump said:


> The tax payers say so.
> The tax payers have signed up for funding the govt. pension plans no matter what.
> The govt. can (and will) increase taxes as far as necessary to keep funding the pensions.
> 
> But the federal govt. isn't bankrupt, not even close - fiscally, at least - moral bankruptcy is another matter ;o)
> The situation in Europe has pretty much ensured that the currencies of US, Canada, the UK, etc. will continue to be safe havens for some time to come.



Last time I checked, North American governments are running on QE, and are fiscally bankrupt, I'd love to see any links to show that the books are balanced or show a surplus:
http://www.debtclock.ca/
http://www.usadebtclock.com/

I can agree that significant tax increases are necessary to kick the can down the road and wouldn't be surprised if the pensions last longer for that reason. 
US debt is only months away from the debt ceiling and another spotlight. When bond holders eventually lose faith and start cashing in, that's when things will get interesting. 

The only way to keep this propped up is more QE...If they can manage to keep pensions going, inflation would eventually reach such ridiculous levels that the pensions won't be worth anything anyway, but hey, the sheeple just want their checks, they probably won't even notice.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Mike59 said:


> Last time I checked, North American governments are running on QE, and are fiscally bankrupt, I'd love to see any links to show that the books are balanced or show a surplus:


So you are saying that only governments that run a balanced budget or a surplus can be considered solvent?
Everyone else is bankrupt?

I am not saying govt. debt or deficit are desirable, but at the same time, you can't say that a govt. that borrows debt or runs deficits is bankrupt.
By that logic, pretty much every single country is already bankrupt, and has been so for the last several decades (with the exception of small isolated island monarchies).

Public pension liabilities are increasing at alarming rates too, because of all the promises made (in the past and currently).
Larger and larger % of the increased taxes will go towards sustaining those.

In the battle between govt. pension liabilities and fiscal sanity, so far the former is winning.


----------



## Mike59

HaroldCrump said:


> So you are saying that only governments that run a balanced budget or a surplus can be considered solvent?
> Everyone else is bankrupt?
> Larger and larger % of the increased taxes will go towards sustaining those.
> 
> In the battle between govt. pension liabilities and fiscal sanity, so far the former is winning.


Previous generations and governments didn't spend to a point where it's mathematically impossible to ever pay it back, which makes "this time" particularly concerning (as evidenced by the Debt to GDP ratio reaching all time highs). In a zero interest- zero growth environment where the middle class is inevitably destroyed, I just don't see who will be left to pay those taxes for the pensions unless we have a communist revolution and start confiscating physical assets. 










Why anyone would plan to hold for the long term, an asset that's supply has gone parabolic is beyond me...

The debt-crisis equivalent of the repo-man will be foreign bondholders (who own 50% of the $16 trillion US debt) concluding the US won't pay them back with anything useful, followed by a mass exodus from US bonds and dollars causing them to flood the free market- there's only one outcome at that point and it's not a pretty one.

Until they're gutsy enough to downgrade the US to junk status, we're still at the previews stage of the movie.


----------



## Belguy

Well, I know a few folks who are collecting their indexed public service pensions who don't seem to be as concerned as I am over the world economic situation and the direction of the stock markets. Every month, I watch my portfolio go down and every month their pension deposit goes into the bank like clockwork. 

Are some of you saying that that scenario will change anytime soon?


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> It's not a lot of fun trying to grow a privately managed retirement portfolio during times like this.


Here lies the problem.

why are you trying to grow your portfolio during retirement? Why not maintain a sustainable portfolio capable of providing the income you need? If greed kept you invested in the markets, then there is only one person to blame, and that's not Mr. Market.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Mike59 said:


> In a zero interest- zero growth environment where the middle class is inevitably destroyed, I just don't see who will be left to pay those taxes for the pensions unless we have a communist revolution and start confiscating physical assets.


It will all be fine, nothing new.
The purchasing power and the quality of life of the middle classes is constantly being eroded by inflation and taxation.
The governments are in the business of protecting their own.
More and more wealth from the middle classes are being appropriated via taxation in various forms.
Funding public sector pensions is just one of the things.

I am not saying you are wrong about the massive public debt.
I simply do not see any hint of evidence that the generous public pensions are about to be eliminated or clawed back significantly anytime soon.
In fact, I see plenty of evidence to the contrary.
The public sector is getting unusually high raises, far above official inflation levels.
The unions are negotiating ever increasing benefits such as flexi-timings, shorter work weeks, etc.
Pensions and related benefits are getting more and more generous, with early retirement provisions (some as early as 55), bridge benefits, service buy backs, and so on.

I just do not see any evidence, any willingness of governments to address this in any way.



> This chart shows that the U.S. money supply is nearly running above the graph.


Which money supply is this? M1 or M2?
I thought the Feds had stopped reporting money supply figures back in 2006 or so.
How is it projecting until 2020?



> All this money is being created and yet loans from banks are declining. This can only create inflation and perhaps even hyperinflation


Eh?
Where did you get this from?
This is fundamentally false.
If banks are not lending money (as this picture claims), then how can it create inflation, let alone hyperinflation.
Inflation is an expansion of the money supply.
If money is not being circulated via consumer and business loans, then how can it create inflation?


----------



## Mike59

HaroldCrump said:


> Which money supply is this? M1 or M2?
> I thought the Feds had stopped reporting money supply figures back in 2006 or so.
> How is it projecting until 2020?
> 
> Eh?
> Where did you get this from?
> This is fundamentally false.
> If banks are not lending money (as this picture claims), then how can it create inflation, let alone hyperinflation.
> Inflation is an expansion of the money supply.
> If money is not being circulated via consumer and business loans, then how can it create inflation?


The Fed defines "base money" as: "the sum of currency in circulation and reserve balances (deposits held by banks and other depository institutions in their accounts at the Federal Reserve)",
(http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12845.htm). These graphs are all directly from the fed (http://research.stlouisfed.org/). 

The number of bank loans have skyrocketed since QE as evidenced by this graph below, but then have recently decreased at the end of that parabolic move. This is the disparity commented on by the blurb under the money supply graph in the last post (if money is being created and there's no confidence in the lending system to lend it out, then what!?):


----------



## Cal

Yep, your being a little paranoid Mike. Your graphs do not consider the potential tax base available to the governments, that has not been accessed. The US will not intentionally create a hyperinflation environment, nor will they default on any payments.


----------



## Lucy

I don't know. Seems a little naive to say, I see no evidence just because it hasn't happened here yet. There are plenty of demographic studies that have forecasted this. Entitlements which are floating around are ludicrous and bad business. No one in the private sector retires at 57 with 70% pay because it's bad business and they can't run a ponzi scheme. This ponzi scheme is coming to a close and the writing is on the wall. Just because Canada's real estate market has not collapsed yet, does not mean it is not going to happen. "I see no evidence?". Evidence is for sheeple. Smart investors forecast the future. How much more tax can the Canadian endure so their neighbors can retire with $75,000 a year pensions. You think I want to pay for that stupidity? I need $1.5m of paid income property to duplicate that and I must remain a diligent landlord to retire like that while they collect their fat cheques from my hard work. This stupidity needs to end now and it's all coming to the surface. The fact that it's all over the news and we are talking about it is your evidence. This is not going away. My father retired at 56 from the city of Toronto with over 400 fully paid sick days. Try duplicating this stupidity in the private sector. Read some studies on demographics.

Canadians never signed up to pay outlandish outrageous taxes so politicians can bribe government employee vampires with crazy incomes and ridiculous pension plans and benefits so the politician himself can get elected and have his own juicy non sensical pension plan with crazy benefits.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Lucy said:


> You think I want to pay for that stupidity?


Yet, you are paying for it.
And have been paying for it all your working life.
You and I may not _like_ it, but we are compelled to do so by law.

The question here is not whether it is right or wrong, stupid or not.
The question is whether there is any gumption and willingness among the various levels of govt. to change any of that.



> Canadians never signed up to pay


Well, sorry to break the news to you, but we did.
We did so by casting our votes in certain manner.

You are from Ontario, right?
What do you make of the voters of Ontario voting for precisely the type of politician you are describing - not once, not twice, but three times in a row.
That is exactly how we have "signed up to pay".

You may scream that we did not sign up for this, yet we did.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Mike59 said:


> The number of bank loans have skyrocketed since QE as evidenced by this graph below


Your previous post said : _yet loans from banks are declining_.
So, which is it?
Note that a quarter to quarter, or even a year to year change in commercial lending does not necessarily indicate long term projections.

I think we strayed from your original claim 2 posts back i.e. the increase in money supply will cause governments to reduce public pensions.

The data you are presenting is all from the US Fed.
Yet, we are talking about _Canadian _public sector pensions.

There is a wide degree of difference in price rises (an effect of inflation) between the US and Canada.
The US is experiencing _deflation_, esp. led by housing prices.
A 50% - 60% deflation in real estate is bound to create deflation across the board.

The situation in Canada is the exact opposite.

Similarly, there is, in fact, clear evidence _in the US as well_ that public tax coffers are being pillaged by various levels of govt. to make up the deficits in public sector pension plans.
Just last month, the state of California declared that they will be pillaging millions from the general tax revenues to make up the deficit in the state employees pension plan, which is the largest in the US.
Their projected RoR was 7.5%, yet the plan made barely 1% last year.

Similarly, I don't think the growth in _Canadian_ money supply will lead to any substantial clawback in public pensions.
Quite the opposite.
With more money at the disposal of the various levels of government, pensions and benefits can only increase, not decrease.
If that leads to a substantial rise in reported inflation (CPI), the nominal pension payments will go up accordingly because almost all public sector pension plans are fully indexed to the CPI.

An increase in money supply (as you claim) will have the _opposite _effect of what you desire (reduction is public pensions and benefits).
Inflation is a carte blanche for the government.

And as for convincing the unions and various levels of government and agencies to slash the public sector pensions, good luck with that.


----------



## 44545

Lucy said:


> ...There are plenty of demographic studies that have forecasted this.


Please, cite your sources.



> ...Entitlements which are floating around are ludicrous and bad business. No one in the private sector retires at 57 with 70% pay...


Sure they do. That's 35 years of service. Let's look at a sample defined contribution plan, shall we?


6% employee contribution + 6% employer matching into an RRSP. Let's use $100,000 as the figure, for ease of numbers.
Total of $12,000 per year contributed.
35 years of contributions would be $420,000.
The average is the start balance (zero) plus the end balance ($420,000) divided by two, which equals $210,000.
Assuming a 7.5% rate of return, that's an average return of $15,750 per year.
$15,750 multiplied by 35 years is $551,250. Added to the contribution of $420,000, that's $971,250.
Assuming a return of 7.5% after retirement, $971,250 nets $72,843.75 or about 73% of the gross $100,000 salary.

Further reading: http://www.psac-afpc.org/petition-pension/mythes-e.asp





> ...Evidence is for sheeple. Smart investors forecast the future.


_Wise_ investors know better than to _assume_ they can forecast the future.




> How much more tax can the Canadian endure so their neighbors can retire with $75,000 a year pensions.


Examine how the public service pension plan is funded and managed.

Those retired public servant neighbours are, as they were before retirement, taxpayers. The taxes they have paid and continue to pay help to fund their plans.

More details on how the Public Service Pension Plan assets are being managed is available here: http://www.investpsp.ca/en/public-service-pen-plan-ff.html

It seems to be doing quite well generating returns. (targeted actuarial rate of return is 4.2% after inflation BTW, so, somewhere in the neighborhood of 7.5% gross return)

Prior to being retirees those people were providing you, directly or indirectly, with services like clean water, paved roads, safe medicines, and consumer goods that you might appreciate having.



> My father retired at 56 from the city of Toronto with over 400 fully paid sick days. Try duplicating this stupidity in the private sector.


That's not the way a lot of public service benefits work. For many, sick leave is like "an insurance policy." If you need it, great. If you retire without having to use a day of it, count yourself lucky you didn't need to. It doesn't get paid out.

A contract that pays out unused sick leave should never have been signed by the employer in the first place but you can't blame the employee for that.


----------



## Belguy

Public service retirees, with their guaranteed indexed pensions, are pretty much immune from poor investment market performance. They are significantly less vulnerable than someone who has to build up and manage their own retirement nest egg and has to be very concerned about what is happening in the marketplace.

Ivar Grimba CFP, Assante Capital Management, Toronto Star, June 4, 2012


----------



## Lucy

https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/cfib-documents/rr3262.pdf

Most public sector pensions are unfunded or underfunded and defined. Therefore do not collect the generous 7.5% after tax return you forecasted.


----------



## sags

Belguy said:


> Public service retirees, with their guaranteed indexed pensions, are pretty much immune from poor investment market performance. They are significantly less vulnerable than someone who has to build up and manage their own retirement nest egg and has to be very concerned about what is happening in the marketplace.
> 
> Ivar Grimba CFP, Assante Capital Management, Toronto Star, June 4, 2012


You will remember on the old 55plus forum, a lengthy thread where people wanted the government to hand over all of their pension benefits in the belief they could manage a better return on their own.

There are threads on this forum with people questioning if they should keep their pensions or take out the commuted value.

When a healthy return on investments is easy.........everyone wants the cash.

When it is difficult to earn a return on investments...........everyone wishes for a pension.

I suspect if investments were returning high gains each year, nobody would be talking about pensions.

I remember when the fight was over who owned the pension surpluses.


----------



## 44545

Lucy said:


> https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/cfib-documents/rr3262.pdf
> 
> Most public sector pensions are unfunded or underfunded and defined. Therefore do not collect the generous 7.5% after tax return you forecasted.


The PSPP 2011 return was 14.5%.

You can look at all returns here: http://www.investpsp.ca/en/public-service-pen-plan-returns.html

CFIB relies on data from the CD Howe institute which is not necessarily without bias.


----------



## KaeJS

I just wanted to let everyone know that I got smoked in the market today and it was all my fault.

I borrowed $41,000 and lost $477 on that trade (so far - I didn't sell).

BUT -

To all you "buy and holders", I am still outperforming the TSX, DOW and SP 500. :wink-new:

Have a GREAT night everyone, because the day sure as hell sucked!


----------



## Belguy

I would imagine that one could beat the indexes these days with a combination of some skill and blind luck. Normally however, I would say that you will not be successful in beating the indexes over the longer term but these are hardly normal times.

Day trading and investing in dividend payers may be two ways to beat the index returns going forward but day trading requires skills that many of us don't have or time that some of us do not want to devote to investing. I, for one, am not into pouring over financial statements and keeping up with the latest news for several different companies at a time.

To each his own.


----------



## Four Pillars

KaeJS said:


> BUT -
> 
> To all you "buy and holders", I am still outperforming the TSX, DOW and SP 500. :wink-new:
> 
> Have a GREAT night everyone, because the day sure as hell sucked!


Are you counting your time in that performance calculation?

Sorry, about the bad trading day.


----------



## KaeJS

I never count my time. 

It's leisure and learning. I enjoy it.


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## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> I never count my time.
> It's leisure and learning. I enjoy it.


That doesn't change the fact that you should impute your time (or some % of it).
This is like the argument that the RE "specuvestors" often use.
They seldom impute their own labor and time cost.
Therefore their investment properties are always cash-flow positive.

The call that you (or anyone else) as a DIY investor has to make is whether the % they are beating the index by (if they are) is worth their while.
Is 2% worthwhile, it 5% worthwhile, etc.

There is always an opportunity cost to DIY that we shouldn't ignore.


----------



## Belguy

Is this statement true or patently false?

Most professional money managers do not beat the index returns over time?

If you are going to make money stock picking, then you have to know more, or be smarter than, the person who is selling at the same time?

Do you have confidence that you can outsmart the big guys, with their research departments and banks of computers on any kind of a consistent basis?

I would be more interested in hearing a stock picker's longer term performance compared with the indexes than how they did over the past few weeks or months--like perhaps a ten year comparison. 

Some people even win the lottery on their very first try and then never win again for the rest of their lives. There is such a thing as blind luck!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. Most professional money managers do not beat the index returns over time?
> 2. then you have to know more, or be smarter than, the person who is selling at the same time?
> 3. Do you have confidence that you can outsmart the big guys, with their research departments and banks of computers on any kind of a consistent basis?
> 4. I would be more interested in hearing a stock picker's longer term performance compared with the indexes than how they did over the past few weeks or months--like perhaps a ten year comparison.


1. T.
2. Yes, I believe I am smarter and have more common-sense than many of them. But more importantly, I work harder and care more about my money than they do!
3. There is plenty of information available out there to make informed decisions, hence the DIY explosion in the last few years. 
4. I have only been in the business since late 09; I'll be back in 2019!


----------



## Sampson

One aspect often overlooked regarding 'professional money managers' and their inability to beat the market is that they are often handcuffed by the mandate of the fund.

These individuals control lots of money, but they don't have the freedom to invest using methods and styles and individual like T.Gal does. Just think of the active trading they could be doing, the market would be much more volatile if these funds traded in and out of equities at millions or tens of millions of dollars at a time.

Could you imagine if Warren Buffet exited 1/3 of his position in KO one day, then bought it back up 2 days later. The volatility would be 5 times greater then fall of 2008.


----------



## kcowan

Professional money managers are subject to many conditions that individual DIY investors are not burdened with. That is why they under-perform.

There have been no studies including individual DIY investors. We invest to achieve certain financial objectives and don't really care about beating Indices.

So it is a matter of faith but we have no MERs in the case of Mutual Funds to compensate, and Tracking Errors in the case of ETFs. There have been studies on Tracking errors in ETFs. The worst errors are in specialized ETFs. But all ETFs have tracking errors.

The one thing we can agree on is that Professional Money Managers on average under-perform their respective indices. And that ETFs are better on average. But there is no 10 year history to compare so it is still a matter of faith.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sampson said:


> One aspect often overlooked regarding 'professional money managers' and their inability to beat the market is that they are often handcuffed by the mandate of the fund.


True, but many are [were] asleep at the wheel & don't hesitate buying stocks that are 'out of bargain range' as one respected money manager put it & keep limited cash so when there are bargains, little can be bought.


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## al42

Problem for me is that there are so many bargains out there that I'm slowly running out of cash.
Just hope we get a nice pop soon so i can start raising cash again.


----------



## Four Pillars

Toronto.gal said:


> True, but many are [were] asleep at the wheel & don't hesitate buying stocks that are 'out of bargain range' as one respected money manager put it & keep limited cash so when there are bargains, little can be bought.


But that can be part of the mandate - minimum investment levels.


----------



## fatcat

assuming that there is no insider trading or other crooked shenanigans...

the amount of data that professional money managers (and individual investors) have to confront (i.e.where the nyse will be at the end of any given period) is so large that beating the market over a prolonged period of time amounts to nothing less than predicting the future ... there isn't any credible research that shows that anyone, or any company, can do this 

that we know of anyway


----------



## Eclectic12

Sampson said:


> One aspect often overlooked regarding 'professional money managers' and their inability to beat the market is that they are often handcuffed by the mandate of the fund.
> 
> These individuals control lots of money, but they don't have the freedom to invest using methods and styles and individual like T.Gal does. Just think of the active trading they could be doing, the market would be much more volatile if these funds traded in and out of equities at millions or tens of millions of dollars at a time.
> 
> [ ... ]


Not that I'm a fan of the average money manager but in some of the studies I've reviewed, it is not a fair comparison. One of the first I looked at used a set of 225 MFs but something like 55 MFs had objectives that limited their investments to a subset of the index. So the resource or financial sector manager only had a chance of beating the index when their sector did - which doesn't strike me as an indication of their success.

Then too - as an individual investor, money can be put into the best investment available or when there is a bargain. If the MF limits the manager to 10% cash and $250 million comes in at say RRSP time, buying at a less desirable price can happen. The reverse is when the market tanks, investors sell and if there isn't enough cash to cover the liquidation values, selling at a bad time can also happen.

The flip side of the coin is that the money manager has advantages the individual does not. Most will list the research department staff. I expect their connections to the exchange to buy sell are much better and likely the volume during the year means a much lower commission cost.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

kcowan said:


> [ ... ]
> 
> So it is a matter of faith but we have no MERs in the case of Mutual Funds to compensate, and Tracking Errors in the case of ETFs. There have been studies on Tracking errors in ETFs. The worst errors are in specialized ETFs. But all ETFs have tracking errors.
> 
> The one thing we can agree on is that Professional Money Managers on average under-perform their respective indices. And that ETFs are better on average. But there is no 10 year history to compare so it is still a matter of faith.


Hmmm ... I wonder how a money manager (or DIY investor) to index 10 year history study could be structured. Over 10 years with quarterly changes to the index - that's a lot of changes in the index that a money manager may or may not have the related stock.

Then too - looking at the S&P TSX 60, how can the Sep 9th 2011 changes add three new stocks and drop four? Won't that be the TSX 59 or 61, for that quarter at least? Or was it the TSX 61 in the previous quarter?

http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/838...unces-changes-in-the-s-p-tsx-canadian-indices


Cheers


----------



## Lephturn

Eclectic12 - that is one of the issues you run into with historical performance, it's called survivor bias. Bad studies and articles ignore it - the better ones deal with it by modelling selling the dropped securities and purchasing the added ones.

You folks may like reading this article which critically examines the old "missing the best days" mantra put forward by the fund salespeople.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/648...et-days-mantra-derail-your-tactical-investing

Fund managers are quite often also severely limited by size. Many of these funds that have had a few years of good performance quickly get massive - many $ billions. At that size a fund manager can't just buy stock - they have to slowly build a position over time because they are just so big their activity will move the stock too much. As individual traders we are not limited that way. Add to that they problem that they often are prevented from having more than X % in any one security, must have diversification in various ways, etc. Then net result being that in the end they simply have to own everything that fits their mandate with a few exceptions - and the exceptions are so tiny in comparison to their overall massive fund that it doesn't improve their results enough to overcome the limitations.


----------



## Lephturn

fatcat said:


> assuming that there is no insider trading or other crooked shenanigans...
> 
> the amount of data that professional money managers (and individual investors) have to confront (i.e.where the nyse will be at the end of any given period) is so large that beating the market over a prolonged period of time amounts to nothing less than predicting the future ...


I do not agree that you need to be able to predict the future. It does not amount to that at all. Good risk management, a structured approach, money management, position sizing - with a solid trading plan a trader can do just fine even if they are wrong more than half the time. To "beat the market" you just need to exceed the returns of the index, and there are many ways to accomplish that - many of which do not require you to be correct in terms of forecasting the market even 1/2 the time.


----------



## fatcat

Lephturn said:


> I do not agree that you need to be able to predict the future. It does not amount to that at all. Good risk management, a structured approach, money management, position sizing - with a solid trading plan a trader can do just fine even if they are wrong more than half the time. To "beat the market" you just need to exceed the returns of the index, and there are many ways to accomplish that - many of which do not require you to be correct in terms of forecasting the market even 1/2 the time.


fair enough, the problem is that no one can do this over long periods of time ... if they could and were, based on something _like_ "efficient market theory" we would know about them (by which i mean the market would quickly sniff out someone who is a winner consistently over long periods ... obviously, over the short term, people can and do beat the index all the time) things like the hulbert letter consistently show that everyone eventually falls by the wayside ... anyone who could successfully do what you are saying, i.e beat the index, would be loaded with cash and everyone would be handing over their money

it's easy to fashion a theory as to why the market is beatable, it's just that nobody really does it 

i am referring to long time periods, say 10+ years and when you hit 15 and start to climb, it gets pretty steep

if i am wrong and you know of a company or individual i would like to know about it so i can give them my money to invest ...


----------



## Eclectic12

fatcat - You say you'd like to know 10+ years of good returns ... Peter Lynch might qualify:



> ... In 1977, Lynch was named head of the then obscure Magellan Fund which had $18 million in assets. By the time Lynch resigned as a fund manager in 1990, the fund had grown to more than $14 billion in assets with more than 1,000 individual stock positions. From 1977 until 1990, the Magellan fund averaged a 29.2% return.[3] ...


Wiki Link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Lynch

Part of his time now is as research consultant for Fidelity Investments.


Then too - if someone makes good returns consistently, unless one is in the business, why tell anyone and have competition/questions/complaints etc? 


Cheers


----------



## 1.5M

Luck. If you take 10000 investors randomly picking stocks, at least a few will achieve 30% annual return over 14 years. Then they write a book about their stock picking strategy. Unfortunately, most times, the strategy stops working immediately afterwords.


----------



## KaeJS

HaroldCrump said:


> There is always an opportunity cost to DIY that we shouldn't ignore.


I still don't understand. What's the point in calculating it?

That's like saying when you cook a meal, you should cook 2x as much so that you save on the time it would take to cook a meal tomorrow. What's the big deal?

I enjoy investing, reading, trading, making my spreadsheet, etc. etc. So, why would I count that time as an opportunity cost? It's not like I would spend that time out trying to get a second part time job or something.



Belguy said:


> Is this statement true or patently false?
> 
> Most professional money managers do not beat the index returns over time?
> 
> If you are going to make money stock picking, then you have to know more, or be smarter than, the person who is selling at the same time?


OR, you just need to keep your emotions in check and do it for yourself. Instead of:

Worrying about your boss, your clients, your co-workers, your ego, etc. etc.

It's even more stressful on professional money managers because it's their JOB. You don't think they would be more emotional? Hell.... if I was playing with someone else's money, you can bet your balls I wouldn't trade the way I do with my own cash..


----------



## dogcom

Time is important if you are trying to compare DIY to something like you did with buy and hold. The buy and hold people could argue that they spend 10 percent of the time you do to make their return leaving 90 percent of the left over time to run their business take on extra work or whatever.


----------



## KaeJS

Big deal.

That's too technical. It doesn't make any sense.

You can't be looking at everything as an "opportunity" cost. If people did, they wouldn't have any kids.

Not having kids would save a lot of time and money.

Maybe I could argue that a buy and holder with kids could learn to trade and make more money, if he/she did not have kids?

It's all a big pile of "what if's". I'm never going to count my time as opportunity cost. It is enjoyment for me.


----------



## doctrine

Survivorship bias in general is important to keep an eye on, but the S&P 500 is the best example of when it does not apply. If you bought the original S&P 500 when it first came out in the 60's, and compared it against holding the index as new companies were added over the years, you would have been much better off with the original S&P 500, even counting that many companies eventually went bankrupt. The ultimate buy and hold...


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## Eclectic12

1.5M - Luck you say? 

I'm pretty sure through the same time period there were a lot more than 10,000 other money managers in the US alone, spending their working hours picking stocks. Yet apparently none of them came close. 

As for the strategy stopping working - if so, the charities he manages investments for plus his main income are in trouble.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

doctrine - Really? This seems like the numbers or study is being rigged.

It sounds like the changed index is automatically going to include all of the top performers from the original index. Then too, the changed index has the opportunity to drop the bankrupt companies without taking the full loss.

So for the original index that took a full loss on the bankrupt companies - where does it make up for the them? 

It would seem the only way this could be true is if the bulk of the new companies tank in an extreme way.


Cheers


----------



## Four Pillars

KaeJS said:


> I'm never going to count my time as opportunity cost. It is enjoyment for me.


Kae, you are completely missing the point. There is nothing wrong with ignoring your time if something is a hobby. But if you are going to brag about your investment outperformance compared to a passive investor, then you have to include your time. 

It's not about you, it's about making a fair comparison.



KaeJS said:


> To all you "buy and holders", I am still outperforming the TSX, DOW and SP 500. :wink-new:


Here are my thoughts on investors who do "well" in the markets... ;P

http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/do-you-really-earn-your-investment-income/


----------



## Toronto.gal

*FP:* I read the blog.

*"But if you only have a couple of hundred thousand then 2% is only $4k which is not a lot of money if you spend a lot of time on your investments."*

Someone who only manages 2% annual return on $200K [even someone who works at another job f-time], should not be trading nor be a DIY investor.

*"if you only have a couple of hundred thousand"* - $200K is not a small amount, not for trading nor investing.


----------



## Spidey

I think KaeJS gets a bit of a rough ride. How many of us are including the time we research stocks, passive strategies or discussions of those equities on forums in our investment performance? I know I'm not. It takes quite a bit of guts to post all your buy and sells and open your entire strategy to scrutiny. Kudos to him for doing it.


----------



## Four Pillars

Toronto.gal said:


> *FP:* I read the blog.
> 
> ...
> 
> Someone who only manages 2% annual return on $200K ...


You might want to read it again, because that's not what I said.


----------



## Belguy

When all is said and done, I say to 'live and let live' and 'to each his or her own'. It's a good thing that we don't all enjoy the same things. If I were going to be an active trader, I would have to spend quite a bit of time doing the necessary research before knowing what to buy and when and then when to sell again.

Speaking for myself, I would rather spend that time in the garden!!

That said, I still would like to know if it is a provable fact that the vast majority of individual traders, as opposed to long term investors, do not beat the indexes over the longer run whatever that longer run happens to be. I do know that the number who outperform the indexes does decrease with each passing year. In other words, a stock picker may very well outperform the indexes over one, three, or maybe even five years but fewer do over ten, fifteen, and twenty years. That is a known fact.

The conclusion that I would draw from that is to drop your day trading practice if you are young and have a long time horizon and just invest in a 'Couch Potato' portfolio and then trade annually only for rebalancing purposes and your buy-and-hold portfolio will ultimately outperform the long term returns of the vast majority of active traders.

In other words, don't trade, invest.

All of that said, if the day trader truly gets a bang out of what he does, then he will have also had all of that enjoyment over doing it for all of those years and that has to count for something! For some of the rest of us, it would mean a lot of mundane work for potentially no net gain when all is said and done.

Like I said, to each his own and we don't all enjoy doing the same thing which is all for the good. 

Any rebuttals?


----------



## Young&Ambitious

I think "don't trade, invest" is a bit strict. I am doing both but primarily investing and I consider the trading a learning experience and part of my investing education. Disclosure: I do my trading in non-registered accounts so in case it all goes downhill I do get the taxable capital loss.


----------



## Belguy

Enjoy your trading if that is what you like to do but just keep in mind what you are up against in the long run. It gets increasingly difficult to beat the markets the longer you stay at it!!


----------



## blin10

there's a huge difference making 2g's for whole year vs hundreds of millions... if I loose few g's I wouldn't even sweat it, but if I played with millions it wouldn't be the same strategy... it's like playing poker for paper money or for real money, different outcome



Eclectic12 said:


> 1.5M - Luck you say?
> 
> I'm pretty sure through the same time period there were a lot more than 10,000 other money managers in the US alone, spending their working hours picking stocks. *Yet apparently none of them came close. *
> 
> As for the strategy stopping working - if so, the charities he manages investments for plus his main income are in trouble.
> 
> 
> Cheers


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. I say to 'live and let live' and 'to each his or her own'.
> 2. Speaking for myself, I would rather spend that time in the garden!!
> 3. All of that said, if the day trader truly gets a bang out of what he does
> 4. For some of the rest of us, it would mean a lot of mundane work for potentially no net gain...
> 5. In other words, don't trade, invest.


1. That's not your belief at all!
2. You don't spend enough time there IMHO.
3. There goes the mockery again, LOL. Do you get a 'bang' from your investment strategy? 
4. Flexibility is not mundane at all.
5. There goes the sarcasm again. I wonder how much you truly know about trading.

I have repeated many times, that I personally believe in a mixed [or diversified if you prefer] investment style, which is no rocket science nor a foolish plan/strategy to have. In fact, in such a volatile market, and unless you have unlimited cash, a mixed strategy is a MUST these days, if you want to make returns and not simply be recovering losses every time the market goes up, and if you wish to accumulate shares/increase your DRIP potential, etc.

- I take the trading profits and roll them onto my long-term positions when the price of said shares go down, so how is that not an investing strategy? 
- How is taking advantage of market volatility not an investment strategy? 
- Since when is making a return not investing? 

Trading is a good strategy to raise cash thanks to Mr. Volatility. Also, I mostly trade what I hold long-term, so that saves time on research.

The key difference between you and many other DIY investors [aside from the age], is that you are not objective! Make no mistake that trading is investing and that the styles are *NOT* diametrically opposed, except in your opinion.

Your way of thinking is:










*FP:* I'll read the blog again.


----------



## humble_pie

all the Mad Hatter had to do was pull another child's bib - this one had red polka dots & 3 rows of red rickrack edging - out of his waistcoat pocket. Instantly the Froggy Footman leaped forward to tie the item under the Dormouse's tiny chin.

i don't need a bib, sputtered the Dormouse, as he tried to wave the Footman away. I have something important to say. I'm trying to make this young lady understand that, over the long run, mediocrity rules. The sooner she learns from me, the faster she'll know not to waste her life trying to attain excellence.

there was a loud guffaw. It was the Cheshire Cat's Grin, still floating in the air above the tea table.

take the summer Olympics, now, said the Dormouse. There's no point those athletes going to london. They don't understand that there's no such thing as training for a gold medal. The truth is, the faster they start living under their beds, the better shape they'll be in.

yes you do need a bib, said the March Hare. Because when you talk like that, you drool.

just strangle him with it, said the Grin.


----------



## Belguy

It is interesting that some of you would-be psychologists have the time and inclination to analyze the thoughts and opinions of others. Maybe you know more about what I really think than even I do. LOL!! On the other hand, I wouldn't waste a moment of my time trying to analyze any of you because I don't have the inclination and because I couldn't be bothered and could care less.

In any case, your personal attacks are not welcome and so I wish that you would take them elsewhere as this is supposed to be a forum for financial opinions and not personal innuendos which I am growing weary of.


----------



## Four Pillars

Toronto.gal said:


> *FP:* I'll read the blog again.


I'll spare you the boredom. 

My opinion is that someone who is doing something for profit should know how much profit they are making and how much their hourly wage is (or some equivalent measure).

If I were to do some active trading (let's ignore the 'fun' factor) and wanted to know how worthwhile my efforts are - I would compare my performance net of fees to an equivalent passive investment (ie XIU for example).

So if XIU goes up 8% in one year and my active portfolio goes up 12%, then my efforts have added 4% to the return compared to a passive approach.

So the first idea is that you can't just look at your absolute return (and I'm not saying you do, but rather that some people do) and take responsibility for 100% of those returns.

The second idea is to calculate an hourly wage type of return on your efforts. So if you have a $200,000 portfolio and outperform your benchmark by 2%, that is $4,000 for the year. Depending on how much time you spend on investing, that $4,000 could result in a very large hourly wage or a very low one.


----------



## kcowan

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. That's not your belief at all!
> 2. You don't spend enough time there IMHO.
> 3. There goes the mockery again, LOL. Do you get a 'bang' from your investment strategy?
> 4. Flexibility is not mundane at all.
> 5. There goes the sarcasm again. I wonder how much you truly know about trading.
> 
> I have repeated many times, that I personally believe in a mixed [or diversified if you prefer] investment style, which is no rocket science nor a foolish plan/strategy to have. In fact, in such a volatile market, and unless you have unlimited cash, a mixed strategy is a MUST these days, if you want to make returns and not simply be recovering losses every time the market goes up, and if you wish to accumulate shares/increase your DRIP potential, etc.
> 
> - I take the trading profits and roll them onto my long-term positions when the price of said shares go down, so how is that not an investing strategy?
> - How is taking advantage of market volatility not an investment strategy?
> - Since when is making a return not investing?
> 
> Trading is a good strategy to raise cash thanks to Mr. Volatility. Also, I mostly trade what I hold long-term, so that saves time on research.
> 
> The key difference between you and many other DIY investors [aside from the age], is that you are not objective! Make no mistake that trading is investing and that the styles are *NOT* diametrically opposed, except in your opinion...


You are arguing with a wall. In all the posts, he has held to his view that Couch Potato is the only way to go. Nothing said by any poster has caused him to waiver from that belief. He thinks everyone else is foolish/wasting their time/etc. Save you fingers.


----------



## KaeJS

Four Pillars said:


> Kae, you are completely missing the point. There is nothing wrong with ignoring your time if something is a hobby. But if you are going to brag about your investment outperformance compared to a passive investor, then you have to include your time.
> 
> It's not about you, it's about making a fair comparison.


I don't feel I am missing the point. The point is that buy and hold investors believe that you cannot consistently beat the market and that trading is a:

Fools game, mugs game, waste of time, luck, etc.

I am all for fair comparison - which is why I measure my results against the TSX, DJIA, SP500 and NASDAQ.

However, I think there are many Buy and Holder's who spend just as much, if not more, time than I do actually "analyzing" the market.

Look at all the articles and posts coming from Belguy, for example.

Guess how many articles I read per day? Zer0.
Guess how much BNN I watch per day? Zer0.

I spend about 30 minutes/day looking at charts and reading over news/fundamentals. That's about it.

The rest of the time, I'm posting about gaining muscle on a caloric deficit, renting a muskokan cottage, or describing my night terrors.

The truth is: The more you read about this and that and blah blah blah, the more emotional you get about the whole thing which will cause you to become a poor trader, anyway.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

KaeJS said:


> I spend about 30 minutes/day looking at charts and reading over news/fundamentals. That's about it.


I don't think you should hold out Belguy as a representative passive investor. I am a passive investor and I spend less than 30 minutes per month on tending to the portfolio.


----------



## Four Pillars

I don't believe it's impossible to beat the market, however, I'm quite sure that I can't do it.

As I've said before BG is a troll and doesn't belong in here. I would try (if possible) to ignore him.

As for the comparison - I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I think that time spent should be part of the equation, but that's just my opinion.


----------



## Causalien

>.< since I stopped trading daily, I have a fun portfolio that net $1000 every month from 10 min of monthly trades using a small 50k capital. The strategy doesn't work when scaled up. But if I were to think about it in FP's way, it's a lot of money per time spent.

Problem is, it diesn't scale with invested capital. I can double the capital and 10x the time, but it'll just increase profit by $200. So at this moment, I'd rather find something that has profits which scale with capital but demand less than linear amount of increases in time spent.


----------



## Four Pillars

Causalien said:


> >.< since I stopped trading daily, I have a fun portfolio that net $1000 every month from 10 min of monthly trades using a small 50k capital. The strategy doesn't work when scaled up. But if I were to think about it in FP's way, it's a lot of money per time spent.


$1,000 for 10 minutes? Yes, that gets the official Four Pillar "worthwhile activity" seal of approval.


----------



## webber22

Four Pillars said:


> ... As I've said before BG is a troll and doesn't belong in here..... .


A popular Portuguese saying goes "Arguing with a troll is the same as playing chess with a pigeon: the pigeon defecates on the table, drops the pieces and simply flies, claiming victory". 

But in our case, the pigeon won't leave the table, is defecated and urinated on to the point that it eventually drops the pieces and can barely make the flight off the table, only to return the next day


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Causalien that is very impressive, congratulations! Would you mind sharing your favourite tidbits of advice for us up and comers and how you manage to get that kind of return? :love-struck:


----------



## Causalien

Research a glitch in the system. Backtest to see when and how it fails. Simulated the return over a year. Then start small and scale up. I currently can't scale this up. So it is in the freezer while I do thenext big thing.

You will feel this is wasting time and your money is not working for you during the research. Butit is true only for the first one. I have several of these little projects so I get more and more patient as time goes by.


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Very interesting. By glitch do you mean an anomaly that reoccurs consistently for no real reason (ie. using Sell in May to your advantage) or using fundamental analysis to find an opportunity to get in when others are getting out etc or something more computer related?


----------



## Causalien

The first. sell in may way.

In the same train of thought. Most think sell in may works. The contrarians say it doesn't because once a method is well known by the market it stops earning money.

The statistician will look at the actual data and say that it is only 1 or 2% more likely than garbage. A robo trader will develop a strategy to win small amounts based on the 1% difference (Although you only get ~100) chances for this ex). A speculator will look at the history books to see the recurring theme of the economy that make "sell in may" a more likely occurance.


----------



## blin10

ya ok there buddy lol.. and I got a fun portfolio making 50k a month hah



Causalien said:


> >.< since I stopped trading daily, I have a fun portfolio that net $1000 every month from 10 min of monthly trades using a small 50k capital. The strategy doesn't work when scaled up. But if I were to think about it in FP's way, it's a lot of money per time spent.
> 
> Problem is, it diesn't scale with invested capital. I can double the capital and 10x the time, but it'll just increase profit by $200. So at this moment, I'd rather find something that has profits which scale with capital but demand less than linear amount of increases in time spent.


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> You can't be looking at everything as an "opportunity" cost. If people did, they wouldn't have any kids.
> Not having kids would save a lot of time and money.


That is not what it means.
Those that choose to have children assign a higher value to being parents than to the potential time/money they might save.
It is a clear, rational choice.

Those that consciously choose not to have children are assigning a higher value to the (assumed) time and money saving than to parenthood.
Again, a rational choice.

In the world of investing/trading, we do this all the time.
You sell a stock at $5, which another buys for the same price.

It is relative valuations and opportunity costs i.e. you can find a better place for your $5 than this stock, and your counter-party cannot find a better place for his $5 than this stock.



> It's all a big pile of "what if's". I'm never going to count my time as opportunity cost. It is enjoyment for me.


So it's a hobby?
You don't care whether you beat the index or not?
If you do, how long are you willing to spend on that?
10 mins. a day? 2 hrs. a day? 5 hrs. a day? 12 hrs. a day?

Draw the line somewhere, and that will be your opportunity cost line i.e. beyond that point, you can find other things that become relatively more worth while than stock research/investing.


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Ah Causalien and blin10, you two make me feel poor!! :tongue-new:

blin10, can I ask what your return % and capital amount is? 

Maybe we need a trophy for the best "fun" portfolio trader! The 20% I made last week isn't something that, at this point, I've been able to replicate repeatedly...YET. Teach me all you know haha


----------



## Causalien

blin10 said:


> ya ok there buddy lol.. and I got a fun portfolio making 50k a month hah


Yeah. I am down with 50k a month. How much capital do I need to invest in this and how?


----------



## Eclectic12

*Belguy*- I'd also like to know how individual traders versus individual long term investors fare. However, the comparisons I've read are almost always compare the individual to an index, a money manager or have incomplete information or are marketing material. So I'm not sure the result will be known - unless you plan on funding some research.


*Blin10* - You will have to explain your point in more detail as I don't see the relevance. The example given was a professional money manager, just like the my reference to the 10K+ competitors. IMO, that makes the strategy the same. None of these types are likely to remain employed if they are making 2g's per year with the amounts of money handed to them to invest.

The place where the strategy might be different is 1.5m's comment about indicating it was "luck" as investors randomly picking stocks would net a similar result.


Cheers


----------



## Toronto.gal

Young&Ambitious said:


> Ah Causalien and blin10, you two make me feel poor!! :tongue-new:


I'm kinder than them, so I won't make you feel poorer than you already do. :biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> Any rebuttals?


That's what my response was about yesterday, ie: I gave you a contrary contention and based on the sarcastic post that you wrote, that's exactly what you were expecting/hoping [attention], so no, I was not playing psychologist at all [if your comment was directed at me]. What I find interesting, is that you never respond to my comments [made in response to yours], why is that? Is it because you find everything I say meaningless/nonsensical/useless? Well, you'll be happy to know that you shall receive the same kind treatment from me from now on!

Anyway, beautiful day 'to spend in the garden', don't you think?










*FP:* thanks, I got you! And yes, I, too, calculate my hourly rate and only count the time that I spend within 'working hours', another words, anything I read/research after 5 p.m. for example, I do not take into account because I enjoy doing it [no different than playing tennis]. Makes sense? 

*Kcowan:* I know what you say is true, but others visit the thread, so I'm not wasting my fingers & besides, I like to argue/defend myself & write, too. :wink:


----------



## Causalien

We all know Toronto doesn't wake up unless there's 100k involved.


----------



## Toronto.gal

There is more to my waking hours than $$$ and investing is just one of the many things I do in life. I would need to write a long post to detail all that I have accomplished before the markets opened at 9:30 a.m.


----------



## Belguy

Debunking dividend myths (parts 1 through 4):

http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2011/01/18/debunking-dividend-myths-part-1/


----------



## zylon

*call me an ostrich, or lazie cat, or whatever ...*

*... nothing bothers me;
at least not today!*


----------



## Belguy

It might be of interest to some to compare the overall total returns of the following iShares ETF's:

One year (as of May 31): XIU: -14.52%, XIC: -14.39%, CDZ: +2.20%

Five years: XIU: -1.52%, XIC: -1.34%, CDZ: +3.02%

Is there any valuable lesson to be drawn from these returns?

Would you consider switching your XIU or XIC holdings to CDZ given all that you know?


----------



## Eclectic12

*KaeJS:*

Hmmm ... as near as I can tell from thread, it looks like you might be confusing the underlying rationale with a measurement of efficiency. I see including the time spent as a way to measure if the benefit is worth the effort, similar to comparing the index return to the portfolio returns. 

If 30 minutes a day for a stock picker translates to beating the index by 10%, then likely it's worth it. If the "passive" investor is spending two hours a day to end up 5% below the index, then it's not worth it.


As for more reading = more emotional, that's heavily influenced by the individual. 

More reading has in the past:
a) made me more confident to buy Canadian Bank stocks in Mar 2009, not less.
b) made me aware of other ways to make money (ex. split shares, HISA MFs, options, etc.).
c) given an understanding to avoid bad investment choices.

I have had colleagues who fit the "more reading = more emotional", which is usually a clear indication that they should not be a DIY investor.


Just my two cents ... (or after the penny is retired, five cents after rounding ...) :biggrin:


Cheers


----------



## Belguy

Wait a minute--wouldn't two cents after rounding be zero??!!


----------



## Eclectic12

Mathematically, yes ... but what business owner unless forced to is going to take zero instead of a nickel?
:rolleyes2:

Cheers


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Belguy said:


> It might be of interest to some to compare the overall total returns of the following iShares ETF's:
> 
> One year (as of May 31): XIU: -14.52%, XIC: -14.39%, CDZ: +2.20%
> 
> Five years: XIU: -1.52%, XIC: -1.34%, CDZ: +3.02%
> 
> 
> Is there any valuable lesson to be drawn from these returns?
> 
> Would you consider switching your XIU or XIC holdings to CDZ given all that you know?


No it makes me glad I've been buying a lot of XIU at reduced values given the drop over the past year.


----------



## Belguy

There is something that I can't quite come to grips with in this stock game. When stocks are up, that's a good thing and, when stocks are down, that's a good thing. 

Maybe this investing racket is not such as bad thing after all as apparently it is a good thing no matter which way stocks go.

Gotta love it!!!:victorious::topsy_turvy::greedy_dollars:


----------



## londoncalling

Belguy said:


> It might be of interest to some to compare the overall total returns of the following iShares ETF's:
> 
> One year (as of May 31): XIU: -14.52%, XIC: -14.39%, CDZ: +2.20%
> 
> Five years: XIU: -1.52%, XIC: -1.34%, CDZ: +3.02%
> 
> Is there any valuable lesson to be drawn from these returns?
> 
> Would you consider switching your XIU or XIC holdings to CDZ given all that you know?


Chasing past returns is always a bad idea... If you want to hedge your bets own all 3... If it were up to me I would hold the one with the least fee cost...


----------



## KaeJS

It's a bloodbath out there!


----------



## blin10

damn son oil is getting murdered


----------



## Toronto.gal

How many times have we gotten 'smoked' [and opposite of smoked] since this thread started? I lost count. 

Market irrationality won't disappear anytime soon, but just make sure that you remain rational! :encouragement:


----------



## Young&Ambitious

New 52 week low are being made ! I've got my eye on MT, BMO, SJR.B.TO, RCI.B.TO and already got some CNQ.TO-too bad it's gone lower yet, oh well c'est la vie.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Wow I just got smoked


----------



## Belguy

I thought that I was the only one getting smoked today but apparently not!!

Today's sell off comes on news that Moody's is about to downgrade the credit ratings of many of the big global banks. Also, Goldman is recommending that investors short the S&P. There is also a feeling that the Fed will need to take much stronger action than just extending the Twist as happened yesterday.

All sectors are down and there are no safe havens. Gold is down 3 per cent or off $48 and energy and materials are the two biggest losers of the day.

As many would argue, this is all to the good as it represents more great buying opportunities but I personally find that of little solace.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Don't worry Dopplegangerr, just read post# 954 above. :biggrin:

A classic pessimistic's view of optimism or what?


----------



## Spudd

Actually, Belguy, my US Treasuries (TLT) are nicely up today. My REITs are also not hurting as badly as everything else.


----------



## Belguy

U.S. treasuries would surely have their place, in this day and age, in a diversified portfolio but when would you know when to buy more, continue to hold, or sell them? It is such timing that I find difficult and why I mostly buy-and-hold mainly broad-based index products which, incidentally, have gone essentially nowhere over the past five years!:upset::chargrined::dispirited::grumpy:


----------



## KaeJS

Young&Ambitious said:


> New 52 week low are being made ! I've got my eye on MT, BMO, SJR.B.TO, RCI.B.TO and already got some CNQ.TO-too bad it's gone lower yet, oh well c'est la vie.


You should have bought MT and BMO a week ago.

You are late! :stupid:

Early bird gets the worm.

Though, I will be adding BMO and MT if this continues and things go crazy.


----------



## blin10

belguy you need to learn how to hedge yourself... while i got a ton of longs I got good amount of shorts as well, when markets sink my shorts will offset the losses.. you absolutely NEED to protect yourself in this market


----------



## Young&Ambitious

KaeJS said:


> You should have bought MT and BMO a week ago.
> 
> You are late! :stupid:
> 
> Early bird gets the worm.
> 
> Though, I will be adding BMO and MT if this continues and things go crazy.


I wish I had, my transfer came in this week so now I'm hoping things go down back to the lows of the last 2 weeks... *sigh*


----------



## KaeJS

Young&Ambitious said:


> I wish I had, my transfer came in this week so now I'm hoping things go down back to the lows of the last 2 weeks... *sigh*


I don't think you'll have a problem.

Just be patient, and then pick up some good deals. You should be alright. :encouragement:


----------



## Belguy

I'm not into longs in this weather and I have even disguarded my shorts!!

Actually, this short and long thing as it relates to stocks is too complicated for me. I am just a simple man who invests in ETF's.


----------



## Jon_Snow

And just like that I'm back to even with my big SU purchase. Got 150k burning a hole in my HISA so things might as well continue to tank hard so I can get some great deals. SU at $27 isn't looking like a great deal suddenly.


----------



## Toronto.gal

What's the saying, *'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'*, but some folks never learn [including myself at times]. :rolleyes2:


----------



## Jungle

Jon_Snow said:


> And just like that I'm back to even with my big SU purchase. Got 150k burning a hole in my HISA so things might as well continue to tank hard so I can get some great deals. SU at $27 isn't looking like a great deal suddenly.


Ya SU died today, never seen it go down 6%+ in one day.

I am itching to add more of this, but I want it in the $25 price badly. We might see that, hold on to this for a while I don't see how you can't make a pile of money. Doom and gloom does not last forever, and everyone will look back and say what a great opportunity it was to buy at these prices.


----------



## 44545

Toronto.gal said:


> What's the saying, *'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'*, but some folks never learn [including myself at times]. :rolleyes2:


Going on a slight tangent, it amuses me that "bird in the hand" has been added to the investment lexicon: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bird-in-hand.asp

I was reading recently (sorry, can't cite source) an argument that pointed to inefficiencies within companies as a justification for dividends, rather than sitting on piles of under-performing cash. I've seen my fair share of corporate and government waste that makes me believe that argument.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Haha thanks Tgal. 

Jon What price did you sell at? Please tell me you got out at the 30 mark for that 9k profit we talked about


----------



## gibor365

Dopplegangerr said:


> Haha thanks Tgal.
> 
> Jon What price did you sell at? Please tell me you got out at the 30 mark for that 9k profit we talked about


Did he sell? My understanding he didn't....


----------



## KaeJS

He did not.


----------



## londoncalling

Jungle said:


> Ya SU died today, never seen it go down 6%+ in one day.
> 
> I am itching to add more of this, but I want it in the $25 price badly. We might see that, hold on to this for a while I don't see how you can't make a pile of money. Doom and gloom does not last forever, and everyone will look back and say what a great opportunity it was to buy at these prices.



Only those that are buying will be able to say that... Most will say I wish I had...


----------



## Dibs

Looks like the sky is falling again today!


----------



## Belguy

But what is going to turn this ship around and when or might it run aground first??!!:hopelessness::cower::hopelessness::cower:


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Dibs said:


> Looks like the sky is falling again today!


It's buying time


----------



## doctrine

I'm up quite a bit this week, so a few days of pullback not really unexpected.. onwards and upwards!


----------



## KaeJS

Good opportunity if there is carnage on Monday.


----------



## KaeJS

I got raped today. 

Bought CPG right at market open........ wow...

/fail.

Didn't sell Ford when I had a profit. Now I lost it all........ fail.

Bought CNQ to watch it fall....... fail.

Everything that went wrong - did.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Wow glad I have been to preoccupied with my own stuff to do any trading then.....


----------



## sags

KaeJS said:


> I got raped today.
> 
> Bought CPG right at market open........ wow...
> 
> /fail.
> 
> Didn't sell Ford when I had a profit. Now I lost it all........ fail.
> 
> Bought CNQ to watch it fall....... fail.
> 
> *Everything that went wrong - did.*


Sounds like a Yogi Berra quote................


----------



## KaeJS

LOL.

I didn't even notice that.

I meant to say "Everything that *(could have)* went wrong - did."

:biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> Bought CPG *right at market open*........ wow...


Wow :stupid: careful buying at the open as it normally takes a good 1/2 hour [or more] for markets to settle down, as volume picks up and news of the day/prior day get swallowed & digested.

I would rather sell at the open, if prices are sharply up; buy at the close when there is a sell-off [there are exceptions ofc].

You'll recover as you always do as your stock picks were good!


----------



## Navigate Sensibly

KaeJS said:


> LOL.
> 
> I didn't even notice that.
> 
> I meant to say "Everything that *(could have)* went wrong - did."
> 
> :biggrin:


Chill. It was only 1 day. 

Stop day trading. :rolleyes2:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Navigate Sensibly said:


> Stop day trading. :rolleyes2:


Nothing wrong with trading, if you know how.

Many people here, who day/swing-trade [given the volatility], are also long-term shareholders.


----------



## KaeJS

Navigate Sensibly said:


> Stop day trading. :rolleyes2:


Trading is the only way to make money.

Otherwise, I would be -4% for the year, like Belguy.


----------



## Belguy

Heh, I resemble that comment!!

Ya, but I am going to come out ahead in the long run.

Have you ever read that great investment book 'The Tortoise and the Hare'?:encouragement:eaceful::tickled_pink:


----------



## KaeJS

I hate to say it, but you will probably not come out ahead in the long run. :hopelessness:

Though, I wish you the best.


----------



## Belguy

Then all of those books and articles that I read were wrong??:upset::frown::concern::blue:


----------



## KaeJS

Not wrong. Outdated!!


----------



## doctrine

I'm a buy and hold and up about 10% yoy. Much easier to make $15-20k in a year to supplement income by only occasionally monitoring quarterly reports, rather than watching every day. I can go on vacation and not worry about checking any of my holdings. If you wouldn't hold a stock for 10 years, don't hold it for 10 minutes 

Not everything I buy goes up, but I'm pleased that my three sells in the last year were all absolutely correct - the stocks went down 5-10%, which was a warning sign, and further analysis suggested they were not worth holding 10 years, and now all three are down another 10-30%.


----------



## 44545

doctrine said:


> I'm a buy and hold and up about 10% yoy. Much easier to make $15-20k in a year to supplement income by only occasionally monitoring quarterly reports, rather than watching every day. I can go on vacation and not worry about checking any of my holdings. *If you wouldn't hold a stock for 10 years, don't hold it for 10 minutes *


I couldn't agree more. 




> Not everything I buy goes up, but I'm pleased that my three sells in the last year were all absolutely correct - the stocks went down 5-10%, which was a warning sign, and further analysis suggested they were not worth holding 10 years, and now all three are down another 10-30%.


Would you be willing to share what further analysis you did, and on which securities?


----------



## Toronto.gal

doctrine said:


> If you wouldn't hold a stock for 10 years, don't hold it for 10 minutes..


In an extended period of volatility, with severe price fluctuations [example: CCO/SLF/SU], there is nothing wrong holding same stock for both, short and long-term periods. The approach is *not* gambling nor market timing per se. If I would hold a stock for 20+ years, why wouldn't I want to hold a % of said shares for 3 days/weeks/months, during stomach-turning volatility when prices keep falling to the original purchased price & even lower? :rolleyes2:

The mixed approach has made a big difference in my returns the last couple of years [compared to the period I was simply a buy/hold investor]. It's a good way to accumulate shares as well, and the strategy is simple:

- buy low,
- sell a block at/near peaks,
- wait for the price to drop [which has happened a zillion times just this year],
- buy sold block [+ additional shares depending on price decrease/cash available/allocation, etc.],

Result? 

- you'll have more shares with less capital invested [as you would have bought at lower prices with: new/returned capital as well as with returns],
- you'll have higher dividends as a result of the higher # of shares [if applicable],
- can accumulate free shares through drips............

If you make $1 million a year, then by all means, buy/hold/average down and never book profits/never buy shares with profits, just rebalance once a year and buy at higher prices.


----------



## Cal

^ pretty much what I do in regards to the mixed approach. However I still consider myself a long term investor, not a trader, as I would be willing to hold pretty much any stock I pick up for short term intentions long term. I guess it is a matter of interpretation.

If I am picking up something short term, I have generally predetermined my in and out prices prior to buying.


----------



## Spidey

Toronto.gal said:


> In an extended period of volatility, with severe price fluctuations [example: CCO/SLF/SU], there is nothing wrong holding same stock for both, short and long-term periods. The approach is *not* gambling nor market timing per se. If I would hold a stock for 20+ years, why wouldn't I want to hold a % of said shares for 3 days/weeks/months, during stomach-turning volatility where prices keep falling to the original purchased price? :rolleyes2:
> 
> The mixed approach has made a big difference in my returns the last couple of years [compared to the period I was simply a buy/hold investor]. It's a good way to accumulate shares as well, and the strategy is simple:
> 
> - buy low,
> - sell a block at/near peaks,
> - wait for the price to drop [which has happened a zillion times just this year],
> - buy more.
> 
> Result?
> 
> - you'll have more shares with less capital invested [as you bought at lower prices with new capital as well as with returns],
> - you'll have higher dividends as a result of the higher # of shares [if applicable],
> - can accumulate free shares through drips............
> 
> If you make $1 million a year, then by all means, buy/hold/average down and never book profits/never buy shares with profits, just rebalance once a year and buy at higher prices.



I've also been sold on this sort of duel strategy. Partly through following the exploits of people such as yourself. :encouragement:


----------



## HaroldCrump

Spidey said:


> I've also been sold on this sort of *duel *strategy.


That can be physically dangerous, people can get hurt.
I wouldn't attempt it, esp. if Toronto.Gal is on the other end of your _duel_ trade ;o)


----------



## Spudd

Can anyone recommend a book that goes into specifics of how to implement this strategy? I can definitely see the appeal, but I don't know how one would determine how much to sell vs keep, etc.


----------



## Spidey

For me about 50% of my portfolio will always be fixed in equities ( mostly passive index equity investments, a couple of favorite stocks and REITS). Another 10% will remain fixed in short-term fixed income. These percentages will remain stable regardless of market performance. The other 40% will be more versatile, but in a measured way - perhaps under a percent movement at a time. During times of market strength, eg. a couple of years of strong market growth, I will gradually move this 40% entirely into fixed income. Sure, I'll may miss some growth, if the market keeps advancing, but I've still got my fixed 50% to take advantage of further gains. During years of significant decline, I will start dialing this 40% towards equities. Currently, I've moved about 10% in this direction - if we get to another decline in the 2008 magnitude I will move the entire 40%. 

As for determining how much to sell, keep, etc. I take baby steps (perhaps 100 - 300 shares at a time) and try to buy equities that I would be tempted to add to if they decline further - industries with products that will be in demand for years to come, dividends, good fundamentals and preferably insider buying. I also usually only buy on down days - or at least down days for that stock. After I've accomplished my desired return I place a trailing stop. (I'm usually happy to get an immediate net return of 13%.) However, I don't place stops under my original purchase price and would only sell if something fundamentally changed with the company. If the price drops, I consider buying more, unless another holding now looks even more favorable. For example, I'm currently considering adding to my position of CHE.UN. 

I don't mind if anyone wants to criticize my strategy. I've learned that becoming defensive or disregarding criticism is an unhealthy trait when it comes to investing. - In fact, that's part of the reason that I posted it.


----------



## londoncalling

I see nothing wrong with this strategy Spidey. It definitely seems to work for you. 

A little of topic but here is what I have been doing.

I also average down, looking at fundamentals. My allocation is currently matched to 100-age for equities vs fixed. I would like to up this to 110-115 -age over time as I become more educated in DIY. I consider myself a dividend/value/dividend growth investor. Over time I will move to lower yield more dividend growth positions and also add options to the mix. I don't have the time commitment or knowledge to day trade so I will leave that to those on this forum that are much better suited. In regard to selling, I have taken the approach of 3-4x yield for taking cap gains (or at least a trim) for short term positions and a 5-7x for long term holds. I also exit in tranches just as I enter positions in a similar manner. I set mental stops but not actual stops. Furthermore, I determine a exit strategy, increase strategy and hold strategy for each position I hold prior to purchase. If these targets are met I re evaluate the position. The exit is set for both up and downside. Increases are typically average down or on dips. I will hold stocks as long as they maintain or increase dividends and maintain or decrease payout ratios. Being a novice investor I have difficulty holding cash. If anyone has a book on the "hybrid" type of investing mentioned upthread please post it here as I have yet to see anything written on a style which I would find popular and interesting.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Spudd said:


> Can anyone recommend a book that goes into specifics of how to implement this strategy? I can definitely see the appeal, but I don't know how one would determine how much to sell vs keep, etc.


I don't think any specific book will address all your specific goals/learning requirements & situation; I have read many books, but in the end, I can say that I developed my own strategy over time via hands-on experience, though naturally books helped me immensely. Rarely a month goes by that I don't read an investment book.

As I'm in the accumulation stage, my goal is to accumulate shares at low prices, as well as for free: via dividends/dripping/trading profits, etc. Some don't believe in re-investing dividends, but I do, accordingly, I have true and synthetic drips. 

Recently, given the low prices, my dividends have bought me several shares of many of my stocks at prices that are currently 50% less than what I had initially sold them for just a year ago before buying them back for much lower prices. Think about this: if your dividends are now buying your stock at $10/$20/$30, etc., and these stocks will potentially be worth $40/$60/$90, say 20 years from now, then calculate this with just 1/3 or your dividend paying stocks, see what your returns on free accumulated shares would be!


----------



## kcowan

Yes I think trading/hybrid approaches makes sense in these times of long term sideways motion. For me, I limit such activity to 10% of my portfolio (other than buying on dips) so it is unlikely to make a big difference overall but it satisfies my need for speed!


----------



## humble_pie

long & short option strategies clustered around quality underlyings are a more peaceful way to extract excellent capital gains from a sideways or basking stock imho.

option strategies are easier on the investor since there is no immediate black-and-white win-or-lose consequence. Option positions are far easier to repair than a stock sale that goes wrong (as in stk immediately rises) or a stock buy that goes wrong (as in stk immediately plunges.) These latter are stark, irreversible events.

the investor who sells a stock for short-term profit but the stock continues to rise strongly is unlikely to ever buy that stock back.

however the investor who sells an out-of-the-money call on the same stock will continue to hold the stock through the rise & will have plenty of time to roll his option upwards & outwards in order to protect long-term gains in his rising stock. Even if his option falls into the money - i always have a few in-the-money - in nearly every case sufficient premium will still be present in the option to buffer the position & prevent the counterparty from exercising


----------



## Dibs

Are options usually only available on margin? Or are there some banks that offer options trading on regular accounts?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Does anyone know how many Canadians use Option strategies compared with traditional trading? In a book I read, I think a 2009 American version, it said that only 5% of the population understood how options worked.

And in an article I read, it said that few truly succeeded.

Some Option strategies are indeed excellent/superior to traditional trading, but not all that 'peaceful' until you fully understand how they work, but I guess that could be said for anything.


----------



## Causalien

Toronto.gal said:


> Does anyone know how many Canadians use Option strategies compared with traditional trading? In a book I read, I think a 2009 American version, it said that only 5% of the population understood how options worked.
> 
> And in an article I read, it said that few truly succeeded.
> 
> Some Option strategies are indeed excellent/superior to traditional trading, but not all that 'peaceful' until you fully understand how they work, but I guess that could be said for anything.


Using CMF as an estimate for options traders in an investor population:
Numbers of successful consistent options traders on this forum = ~5
Numbers of CMF members: ~1650

% of succesful options traders (understand and succesful at the same time) in the active investing community: 0.3%

So using some US 2003 data we get ~50% that owns stock through mutual funds or other and 20% directly invest in stocks.
Let's assume that it's the 20% of the poulation who actively seeks out forums like this and make up its users. 

0.3% of the 20% makes it in options = 0.06% of the total population

CAD population ~= 20 mil
That's about 12000 people who are successful at options in Canada... if we are like the US, but all of us understand that canadians aren't as active in the stock market. So until someone can give us some Canadian investor population, we have to assume that 12000 people are actually making money. My guess is that only ~6000 in Canada are successful.


----------



## humble_pie

cause there are far more than 5 playing options. Look at their messages. Another one spoke up just the other day. I'd say at least 20 have posted that they do options, plus there are 2 cmf members i know of who deliberately do *not* post about options here, so who knows. Nobody has any accurate figures.


----------



## humble_pie

Toronto.gal said:


> In a book I read, I think a 2009 American version, it said that only 5% of the population understood how options worked.
> 
> And in an article I read, it said that few truly succeeded.
> 
> Some Option strategies are indeed excellent/superior to traditional trading, but not all that 'peaceful' until you fully understand how they work, but I guess that could be said for anything.



there's something wrong with that 5% figure, imho. Were the authors - whoever they were - trying to estimate how many "understand" options or rather how many use options. If the former, the statistic would not be measurable. If the latter, the figure cannot be correct because if it were, the options exchanges would all close down. Instead, in the US they are expanding.

as for success, it's well known that the failures are generally the buyers of options. They are akin to short-term traders of stock.

option traders who succeed are generally sellers. There are one or 2 in this forum who initially did not believe this, but it took them less than a year to find out the sell truth through the experiences they had.

i myself am not coming from a bookish position. I do both. What i find is that each trade in a short-term stock-trading strategy is irreversible. But an option position can always be repaired.

as for learning, what it boils down to is that some have the knack & some don't. Here in this forum, for example, castor & pollux have learned more in 11 months than i ever did in 10 years.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. cause there are far more than 5 playing options.
> 2. plus there are 2 cmf members i know of who deliberately do *not* post about options here.


1. That's why it's called 'Options' & the beauty/appeal of it! :encouragement:
2. I think the list is/will be longer. :chuncky:

I believe many people think that all the strategies are risky [that included myself up to a year ago], but that is hardly accurate as there are options for the most conservative of investors, especially the one that prevents any investment from tanking, that no stop-loss could save you from.

*Causalien:* thanks for your comments.

I think one of the reasons people avoid options, is the language & the other, the learning curve involved. I would agree with author Michael Sincere, who said in his book 'Understanding Options', that a lot of books written on the subject, sounded as though they had been written for lawyers & mathematicians, so it's important to start with a basic book, and as much I love the 'Dummy' series, for Options, I did not like it much.


----------



## humble_pie

Dibs said:


> Are options usually only available on margin? Or are there some banks that offer options trading on regular accounts?


dibs one does not have to use margin at all. One can just pay for options that one buys & collect cash for options that one sells. Short options will drag slightly on margin but not enough to create a true margin debit, because there will always be a long position in the account to hedge against the short.

the reason brokers wish to confine option trading to margin accounts is that assignments can occur overnight & without warning. So the brokers need to keep their covering shares or their covering long positions nearby. A cash account would not be efficient enough.

the exception are registered accounts. These do permit certain kinds of arch-conservative option strategies. The shares to cover always have to be present in the registered account.

brings me to another point. It is the broker who, officially, is long or short the option position to the option exchange. If there is an assignment, it is the broker who must supply the cash or the shares to the exchange whence came the assignment. This is why brokers like to keep a close eye & a short leash via margin accounts on an option client's assets.


----------



## humble_pie

t.gal it's hot here so i'm thinking lazily, but i believe the truth is that not once in my life have i ever read any book about options ... each:


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> 1. If the former, the statistic would not be measurable...
> 2. failures are generally the buyers of options. They are akin to short-term traders of stock.
> 3. castor & pollux have learned more in 11 months than i ever did in 10 years.


1. The former, since as you noted, in the other scenario, the exchange would close down.
2. The seller receives the premium, so yup, I would say seller, too, though I like to be in control. 
3. It's a lot easier to learn just about anything these days given the available resources. If you had just started learning 11 months ago, you would also have learned just as much, if not more.

I don't know why, but I had a mental block when it came to options, and still do to some degree.

*HP:* about your last comment, all I can say is, incroyable/wow! :applouse:


----------



## Causalien

humble_pie said:


> cause there are far more than 5 playing options. Look at their messages. Another one spoke up just the other day. I'd say at least 20 have posted that they do options, plus there are 2 cmf members i know of who deliberately do *not* post about options here, so who knows. Nobody has any accurate figures.


Maybe a vote is needed. Since that initial population of 5 will skew the result by a lot. So 4x means 48000 people in canada is profitable. Is our options market that big?


----------



## HaroldCrump

humble_pie said:


> there's something wrong with that 5% figure, imho. Were the authors - whoever they were - trying to estimate how many "understand" options or rather how many use options. If the former, the statistic would not be measurable. If the latter, the figure cannot be correct because if it were, the options exchanges would all close down. Instead, in the US they are expanding.


Perhaps that survey (or book) was based strictly on retail investors - folks investing 5 figure sums of money, or low 6 figures at best (into options).
However, the biggest players in the options field are the institutions, hedge funds, wealth funds, etc. (both domestic as well as foreign).
Surely the institutional money in the options, futures, and forex markets overshadows the retail money by a huge order of magnitude.

If all the retail investors decided to stop investing with options, the market will barely miss a beat.


----------



## Argonaut

Though it's true I've switched from mainly buying options to selling them, I did make most of my money last year from winning with directional buy bets. The problem is the pressure of being right in every facet of the trade: direction, timing, etc., or it won't go your way. The nice thing about selling is it can go against you and you'll still pick up the same amount of money as if you were right. Case in point, selling GOOG puts has gone fine this year despite the stock itself being down $70/share. I'll dip into buying again if I'm close to 100% sure on something in the market happening, because options just may be the best way to leverage out your conviction.


----------



## humble_pie

argo has made a number of great monodirectional option bets & so has avrex. But it should be pointed out that both have shown, to date, far greater skill at this than an average option trader would possess. I would not be so lucky, for example. 



Argonaut said:


> The problem is the pressure of being right in every facet of the trade: direction, timing, etc., or it won't go your way.


this is the point i was trying to make upthread about day-trading in stocks. Each trade is irreversible. It's either right or it's wrong.



> The nice thing about selling is it can go against you and you'll still pick up the same amount of money as if you were right.


also the point i was making. Stocks can rise, fall or meander but the consistent option seller does not care, although he will do better if he incorporates some market timing & some attention to indicators, as lephturn does when he gets ready to batter the bejesus out of apple earnings.


----------



## canadian_investor

I've played options a little bit but mostly covered calls and cash secured puts.
there are two problems that have prevented me from using them more heavily.
one is the commissions.
there is a trade commission and then a per contract commission.
it adds up.
if it is just one directional trade every now and then it is ok. but when you have to close out one position and open a new one the commissions are killing.
like when i am closing out a 10 contract covered call and selling another 10 for a higher strike with a longer expiry date i am ending up paying 2 trading commissions + 20 contract commisisons.
wtf? how can this work even at a super low cost broker like Questreade.
i don't know how people with RBC and other more expensive brokerages do this?

second problem is that 99% of the time you have to buy/sell the options at the bid/ask.
i can't think if i ever managed to get a price i wanted. usually i just buy at the lowest ask and sell at the highest bid.
although, i am mostly playing the canadian options market like the banks, canadian telcos, that's all.
not the super high liquid apple computers or google and others in the US market.

how do those of you that trade options routinely work around these two problems?
please share any insights.
i do want to start using options more to increase portoflio yield but these two problems stop me.


----------



## humble_pie

first of all the trader should *never* be doing this as a spread - ie contingent - order with a licensed representative. As you say, the commish will kill ya.

trader should learn to leg his spreads in online one side at a time, both at low online commish. This will lead us to your concern No. 2, which is how to get a far better price than the natural. But i'll get to that concern in another post (not too much time at present).

legging spreads in one side at a time means being able to evaluate the market, seeing which players are present, who will bend in price, who won't. I don't mean one has to know the broker number for the bids & offers but one does absolutely need to know the sizing numbers & one needs to know how to recognize when it's the dealer only bidding or offering. One can also get a clue from the behaviour of the counterparties - from the way they dance their prices in & out - how serious they are.

for 10 plus 10 contracts, the online commish is generally less than $22.50 per side, a rate that i find entirely acceptable.

parties objecting to this should go to Interactive Brokers. There are certain limits on their service (no registered accounts & money is reportedly difficult to withdraw, i hear.)

the difficult part of your concern is getting a better price than the natural, which equates to knowing which side of a legged-in position should be legged in first. This has to do with the art of trading. More later.


----------



## avrex

humble_pie said:


> This will lead us to your concern No. 2, which is how to get a far better price than the natural. But i'll get to that concern in another post (not too much time at present). More later.


I look forward to your thoughts on this. 

Let's continue this discussion over in the Options thread.


----------



## indexxx

holy mother- Zagg fell 22% today.


----------



## Belguy

Rats!! What else can go wrong??!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...citing-higher-operating-costs/article4462085/


----------



## JustAGuy

Yeah, Zipcar fell 36% yesterday too!


----------



## indexxx

JustAGuy said:


> Yeah, Zipcar fell 36% yesterday too!


Gulp! Well, I made up for Zagg by AAPL buying AUTH (66% stock jump) and by nearly everything else in my portfolio performing well. Zagg should recover as it was simply earnings sell-off, and I also have real hope for their HZO waterproofing technology for electronics.

http://www.steves-digicams.com/news..._rights_for_new_waterproofing_technology.html


----------



## JustAGuy

indexxx said:


> Gulp! Well, I made up for Zagg by AAPL buying AUTH (66% stock jump) and by nearly everything else in my portfolio performing well. Zagg should recover as it was simply earnings sell-off, and I also have real hope for their HZO waterproofing technology for electronics.
> 
> http://www.steves-digicams.com/news..._rights_for_new_waterproofing_technology.html


I really was really debating buying Zipcar on market open, and then selling after it went up 3%... but after buying some bad stock in March I've been feeling too timid to do any trades... now I wish I had have cause it seems like it would have worked out great.

Had the same thought Thursday with Chipotle and Annies.... but in all three cases I convinced myself that they'd drop more before they'd go back up

Also, good call on AUTH!


----------



## Belguy

Corporate earnings from major manufacturers are coming in lower than expected. Markets are dropping. 

Another buying opportunity?


----------



## liquidfinance

I hope so Belguy. Things have been looking a little top heavy for me to buy into. Although my portfolio doesn't look great with all the red today I should have some more cash available to invest in the next week so lower prices can only be a good thing.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> 1. Corporate earnings from major manufacturers are coming in lower than expected. Markets are dropping.
> 2. Another buying opportunity?


1. Not really lower than expected and not much of a surprise, especially for the multinationals, as for some time, and given the slowing Chinese & global economy, we have been warned that Q3 earnings would not be pretty.

How many times have we read after Q2, that X company cut its forecast for Q3/forecast a Q3 loss/consumers cut spending/, etc., etc., and also, let's not forget the never-ending news coming from your fav. part of the world. 

2. What do you think? :encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

And yes, some of my tranches got smoked a lil. :untroubled::calm:

It was about time this thread got updated, LOL.


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> It was about time this thread got updated, LOL.


Back from the dead lol.

Earnings season is terrible, they are not even meeting revised down estimates.

Sold ITW today, close to 52 week high and I think my only position in the black today, hopefully there will be more pain so I can finally buy stocks I find attractive for the prices I like ;-)


----------



## KaeJS

Toronto.gal said:


> And yes, some of my tranches got smoked a lil. :untroubled:
> 
> It was about time this thread got updated, LOL.


Good to see my thread is still kickin'! :biggrin:

But... guess who _didn't_ get smoked in the market today?

:biggrin: Yours truly, :biggrin:


----------



## thenegotiator

Belguy said:


> Corporate earnings from major manufacturers are coming in lower than expected. Markets are dropping.
> 
> Another buying opportunity?


deffinitely


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. Not really lower than expected and not much of a surprise, especially for the multinationals, as for some time, and given the slowing Chinese & global economy, we have been warned that Q3 earnings would not be pretty.
> 
> How many times have we read after Q2, that X company cut its forecast for Q3/forecast a Q3 loss/consumers cut spending/, etc., etc., and also, let's not forget the never-ending news coming from your fav. part of the world.
> 
> 2. What do you think? :encouragement:



i think that it is time to make money.
for every seller there is a buyer:encouragement::tongue-new:


----------



## Jon_Snow

I frickin' loved today's market... a handful more of these would be enough to get me off my mountainous cash hoard. :biggrin:


----------



## dogcom

Oil hasn't taken part in the QE and is something that I am now looking at. I think prices are down partly to manipulate the election because if it had spiked it would have been bad for Obama.


----------



## thenegotiator

oil had a 7.7 dollars drop in 4 days........
it definitely had strong resistance at 94 bux
if u think it is going lower kindly share what do u think is support.
tomorrow we have a lot of news coming out.
Thursday we have GDP .
and we have the middle east

oil is having a post QE hangover.


----------



## Belguy

With a sinking economy, some are predicting that gasoline will drop below a dollar per litre by the end of the year.

Am I the only one on this forum that is getting just a tad tired of the never ending buying opportunities? 

When are you predicting a return to a surging economy with the resulting bull market in equities? This decade or next?:hopelessness::upset::cower::frown:


----------



## thenegotiator

BElguy
give me oil at July's price and i will tell ya how much i will buy.
i think they pay what .16 cents/litter over there?
u can move there and buy cheap gas


----------



## Sampson

Is it just me that doesn't see this as a buying opportunity at all?

Most markets are still close to 10% up from the lows of the summer. Pessimism was high back then, but fundamentals strong. Now both sentiment AND fundamentals are bad.

Watch out for those knives.


----------



## thenegotiator

no 
it is not only you Sampson.
maybe the guys here area lil shy?


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Sampson said:


> Is it just me that doesn't see this as a buying opportunity at all?
> 
> Most markets are still close to 10% up from the lows of the summer. Pessimism was high back then, but fundamentals strong. Now both sentiment AND fundamentals are bad.
> 
> Watch out for those knives.



I'm still waiting. I think it can go lower yet, but time will tell.


----------



## jcgd

It doesn't really matter much to me. I could give you my guess, but it isn't worth a dollar. The few times I bought something at the bottom or sold at the top it was pure luck so I try not to get scared off with my own crazy ideas of where the markets could go.

I'm confused though... if the market is pricing the future, how far in the future are we talking? It seems like "the future" is all over the place. If the US/world economy is rebounding it would explain the bull like market over the last three years? So if the market were to tank it would be saying the economy is going to tank isn't it? 

I don't really get it. The economy tanks, the market tanks... but the economy had to go first and then the market adjusted for the recession. After a huge drop the market starts moving back up pretty consistently: 









So if the economy continues to improve or really gain momentum the market would really go nuts?


----------



## Sampson

thenegotiator said:


> maybe the guys here area lil shy?


But the drop wasn't even 2%. How many 5%+ dips have we experience over the past 4-5 years. This is noise.


----------



## thenegotiator

u cannot consider buying something at the bottom and selling at the top pure luck.
the market needed a correction and everybody knew it.
here it is .
it is happening and it will not be a deep correction IMO.
the mkt is running on FEDADRENALIN .
it cannot go forever like that of course.
nevertheless as long as u have liquidity coming in the mkts will rally.
I was going to post a chart about the oil hangover .
nevertheless since everyone here probably thinks i am a dumb-*** i will not.
i wish ya luck anyway.


----------



## thenegotiator

Sampson said:


> But the drop wasn't even 2%. How many 5%+ dips have we experience over the past 4-5 years. This is noise.


ask the posters here Sampson.
i am in and i am a buyer.


----------



## Sampson

thenegotiator said:


> ask the posters here Sampson.
> i am in and i am a buyer.


Well it is very clear that many people here view this as a buying opportunity.

I don't know if people are re-balancing, or whether they have come into a lot of money since July, but I would define the 10% drop between January and July as an opportunity.

Today's 1.5% drop seems more like 'catch-up' for the opportunity that was missed.

I'm 'in' also. We easily have greater than 85% of our liquid assets in equities, but I'm not adding now, not yet anyway. People are may be buying, but they are buying into declining fundamentals, that is clear.


----------



## thenegotiator

if u sold in sept u are holding a hoard of money.
right after the QE announcement.
u cannot time the mkts.
i agree with whoever says that.
what i do know is that the mkts are wayyy ahead of the retail investor.
any and most sell offs are an opportunity IMO

I will give ya a simple example about oil.
the selling signal showed up on or around july /16/12.
but we went higher after that on the QE announcement right?
do u see where are we at now?
ask me if i am a buyer:rolleyes2:


----------



## Sampson

thenegotiator said:


> u cannot time the mkts.
> i agree with whoever says that.


But isn't that exactly what everyone buying on these dips are trying to do?

I'm starting to believe that timing the markets is not so difficult. If the market goes into correction (10% or greater), seems like a much better 'opportunity' than a 1.5% hesitation.

If the market gets rocked, and drops by 20%, then that is an opportunity. If you can't see a 20% falling rock hit you in the face, then yes, timing is becomes difficult.


----------



## thenegotiator

Sampson said:


> But isn't that exactly what everyone buying on these dips are trying to do?
> 
> I'm starting to believe that timing the markets is not so difficult. If the market goes into correction (10% or greater), seems like a much better 'opportunity' than a 1.5% hesitation.
> 
> If the market gets rocked, and drops by 20%, then that is an opportunity. If you can't see a 20% falling rock hit you in the face, then yes, timing is becomes difficult.


u said u are leveraged 85% on equities atm.
that means to me that u have 15% of cash .
it could be a lot in ur case i dunno.
we had a double top on the spx .
was that just a signal that just showed up by a chance?
buying dips is not timing.
last week i deleveraged my coal stocks portfolio very hard.
and u may ask why.

by the way what do u mean by a 20% drop/
a one day drop?


ha 
and i bought AMD too.
this year's AIR CANADA


----------



## thenegotiator

Sampson said:


> But isn't that exactly what everyone buying on these dips are trying to do?
> 
> I'm starting to believe that timing the markets is not so difficult. If the market goes into correction (10% or greater), seems like a much better 'opportunity' than a 1.5% hesitation.
> 
> If the market gets rocked, and drops by 20%, then that is an opportunity. If you can't see a 20% falling rock hit you in the face, then yes, timing is becomes difficult.


Sampson.
on DEC/11 a few members of this forum were saying that BAC was UNTOUCHABLE AT 5 bux.
it doubled in less than 4 months and topped in april/12
warren buffet bought 5 billion dollars of BAC at 7.5.
it did not look that untouchable to him did it?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sampson said:


> But the drop wasn't even 2%.


But Sampson, it's not merely about a buying opportunity flavour of the day, week, month [or year even in some cases]. 

It depends on one's portfolio & goals, ie: what stocks you're holding/wish to accumulate/interested in starting a position/how long have you waited for the desired price/price comparison since you bought or sold, etc., so it's a combination of many factors. It doesn't mean that if I bought today, I only got the stock at -2%.

What if the stock you were interested in was already down substantially and today had reached your desired entry price? 

What if you had bought at the lows of May and recently sold [all or a portion] for a hefty profit, and the stock is now -30% down from the price you sold [from let's say August], would you not see this as a good buying opportunity?

Some stocks that I'm holding are at the same price as they were back in May, so if I wanted to accumulate, I would also consider these prices as good opportunities as without a crystal ball, how do we know whether they will go much lower than they have already done so.

*Belguy:* are you saying that you're tired of holding? I don't blame you as IMHO, it has not been a market for simply holding & balancing once per year.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> on DEC/11 a few members of this forum were saying that BAC was UNTOUCHABLE AT 5 bux.


Wasn't me; I'm still holding in fact, and collecting dividends of 1 cent per quarter, LOL [but of course it doesn't mean that I have not traded it on the way to $9+].


----------



## thenegotiator

very interesting points T.gal.
there are several factors involved with stocks.
some people purely trade options for example.
why would i try to figure out the direction of a certain stock?
no offense to option traders.
the real good ones do make money on it but they mostly expire worthless. 
I hedge my positions with options.
Belguy seems to always be tired.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Wasn't me; I'm still holding in fact, and collecting dividends of 1 cent per quarter, LOL [but of course it doesn't mean that I have not traded it on the way to $9+].



no it was not you.
it really does not matter who it was right?
my point is that today's dogs can be tomorrow's stars?
i know a member here is a silver fan.
guess what i am starting to get bullish on it:encouragement:
it is getting to where i want it.
maybe iam a little early on my initial entry?
who cares?
it is my initial entry position.
not tooo long ago i was short :encouragement:


----------



## Toronto.gal

As Mr. Belguy always says, 'you gotta love the stock market'. :very_drunk::greedy_dollars::highly_amused:


----------



## thenegotiator

i do luv the stock mkt:hopelessness::distress::biggrin::biggrin-new:


----------



## dogcom

Thenegotiator I figure oil will probably bottom out at $82 in the next few weeks and then will be a good time to buy that sector. After the election you are looking at a lot of potential for trouble in the middle east and Saudi Arabia will then be free to hold up supply after their buddy Obama gets elected. This is without even talking about the QE.

Silver and gold I am still bullish on and may look to buy in the next few weeks.


----------



## Eder

Belguy said:


> When are you predicting a return to a surging economy with the resulting bull market in equities? This decade or next?:hopelessness::upset::cower::frown:


I think you just missed the stealth bull over the last 3-4 months , I'm still counting my profits... after a 5-10% correction here I'm sure most will miss the next bull over Christmas as well.


----------



## Sampson

Toronto.gal said:


> But Sampson, it's not merely about a buying opportunity flavour of the day, week, month [or year even in some cases].
> 
> It depends on one's portfolio & goals, ie: what stocks you're holding/wish to accumulate/interested in starting a position/how long have you waited for the desired price/price comparison since you bought or sold, etc., so it's a combination of many factors. It doesn't mean that if I bought today, I only got the stock at -2%.


I fully agree with your sentiment. In fact I was thinking about using you as example before you chimed in yourself.

There are always buying opportunities, your strategies are good evidence of this. But this isn't what I see as one of those days to pile in. A beaten down stock that just crossed your entry/target price... well that could even happen on a day when markets in general are up.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> Thenegotiator I figure oil will probably bottom out at $82 in the next few weeks and then will be a good time to buy that sector. After the election you are looking at a lot of potential for trouble in the middle east and Saudi Arabia will then be free to hold up supply after their buddy Obama gets elected. This is without even talking about the QE.
> 
> Silver and gold I am still bullish on and may look to buy in the next few weeks.


without trying to guess dog we may get there.
but ur trying to pick a bottom.
i stopped trying a long time ago.
84 maybe,. by all means is reachable.

any disruption or signs of conflict or tensions , oil will just ignite.
a lot of investors are cautious before the elections.
we all know that.
i personally think that it does not matter who gets elected.

i am sure of one thing by ur post.
i know why u have 82 bux in ur mind.


----------



## dogcom

There is a lot more to it than that because the Fed also wants Obama because Romney wants Bernanke out, but like you said it won't matter in the end. Also conflict must be avoided while the great presidential reality show takes place. On the $82 that is just a good bottom but it could go lower or not get that low but in the end run it should be higher and higher until everything breaks and the true bear market rages in.


----------



## zylon

*"Bear markets are good" ~Rick Rule (25 minute video)*


----------



## Belguy

Things are in a gawd-awful mess over in Greece with unemployment going through the roof.

So, how has the Athens Stock Exchange General Index performed so far this year?

It's UP 28-per-cent!!!

Go figure.


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> Things are in a gawd-awful mess over in Greece with unemployment going through the roof.
> 
> So, how has the Athens Stock Exchange General Index performed so far this year?
> 
> It's UP 28-per-cent!!!
> 
> Go figure.


It's not too surprising when you consider the details. Pessimism what highest starting all the way back in the summer of 2010, along with last October. The EU was about to shatter, Greece was going to be screwed with threats of no financial support. Remember... there were even threads dedicated to the fall of the European economy and something about another lost decade etc. It was looking bad. Markets moved in step with sentiment.

Since then, several actions and debt packages have been put into place to give the system time to work out the debt, delay the end. Markets have moved in response to avoiding the falling apart.

In hind sight, it makes 100% sense, the question is whether people were buying when everyone else was selling, or if they are buying now, when everyone else is also buying.


----------



## Belguy

Buy low during periods of maximum pessimism.:hopelessness::cower:

Sell high during periods of maximum euphoria.:courage::cool2:

It takes guts but it is how you make money in the markets. If you wait for things to turn around, you are usually too late to the party.

Of course, this doesn't apply to investors like me who just buy and hold forever through ALL market conditions. It usually beats trying to time the markets which, for the most part, has been proven, long term at least, to be a mug's game.


----------



## Sampson

Belguy said:


> Of course, this doesn't apply to investors like me who just buy and hold forever through ALL market conditions. It usually beats trying to time the markets which, for the most part, has been proven, long term at least, to be a mug's game.


The reason it doesn't apply to you Belguy is because you aren't earning money anymore.

I'm a buy and hold investor, but I continue to earn new $ to put into the market. Because I try to 'time' the market to an extent, doesn't make me a profit taker and trader.


----------



## Assetologist

It makes no sense to me NOT to try and time the market.
Most of us try and time everything else in life so why not the market?
Education, children, dates, shopping, traffic lights,....... Time matters - time the market, at least try and buy low sell high and don't feel belittled about doing do or righteous for not!
Check out the 12 month fluctuations of the bluest of blue stocks, indexes, whatever. 
It is absolutely illogical not to make investments at the best TIME!


----------



## Cal

Sampson said:


> The reason it doesn't apply to you Belguy is because you aren't earning money anymore.
> 
> I'm a buy and hold investor, but I continue to earn new $ to put into the market. Because I try to 'time' the market to an extent, doesn't make me a profit taker and trader.


I would say most dividend investors fall into that category too. They aren't too concerned with daily ups and downs of the market, as long as the company maintains its dividend and they get their monthly or quarterly cheque, there really isn't alot to panic about on a daily basis.


----------



## Homerhomer

Cal said:


> I would say most dividend investors fall into that category too. They aren't too concerned with daily ups and downs of the market, as long as the company maintains its dividend and they get their monthly or quarterly cheque, there really isn't alot to panic about on a daily basis.


Not sure I agree (while not speaking for most ;-), infact many of us would want to keep some cash to buy at what we think is the right time, Connolly report, and I think many read him states exactly the same thing, not only it is a good idea to buy good companies, but to buy them cheap, and that is why many dividend investors are not big fans of drip, just gives us more control.

Daily movements are not a concern, but large price fluctuation are when purchasing, for selling it's mostly when fundamentals change.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Homerhomer said:


> 1. many of us would want to keep some cash to buy at what we think is the right time....*not only it is a good idea to buy good companies*, but to buy them cheap.
> 2. many dividend investors are not big fans of drip, just gives us more control.
> 3. large price fluctuation are when purchasing, for selling it's mostly when fundamentals change.


1. Yes, yes, and yes! Many people focus on the quality of the stock and not so much on the price of it.

2. I'm a dividend investor, but also very much a fan of true & synthetic DRIPS. For me, it's not so much about control since I'm more flexible [or tolerant?] when buying with free money, lol, but also because it keeps me disciplined and given the fact that we have had very volatile times in the last few years, DRIPS have worked in my favour for the most part, ie: dividends have bought stocks at an overall reasonable prices [with exceptions of course, as there have been stocks that have done very well]. I might change my strategy once stocks recover, for now, I'm accumulating at good prices.

3. I agree. Insignificant decreases don't bother me in the least & I don't accumulate at this point, but getting a stock/adding/or averaging it down to my desired price, certainly would make a much bigger difference over the long-term.


----------



## Cal

Homerhomer said:


> Not sure I agree (while not speaking for most ;-), infact many of us would want to keep some cash to buy at what we think is the right time, Connolly report, and I think many read him states exactly the same thing, not only it is a good idea to buy good companies, but to buy them cheap, and that is why many dividend investors are not big fans of drip, just gives us more control.
> 
> Daily movements are not a concern, but large price fluctuation are when purchasing, for selling it's mostly when fundamentals change.


I was thinking the emotional side of things when I typed that.

Completely agree with you in regards to trying to maximize the number of units to purchase by buying low.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> Thenegotiator I figure oil will probably bottom out at $82 in the next few weeks and then will be a good time to buy that sector. After the election you are looking at a lot of potential for trouble in the middle east and Saudi Arabia will then be free to hold up supply after their buddy Obama gets elected. This is without even talking about the QE.
> 
> Silver and gold I am still bullish on and may look to buy in the next few weeks.


interesting .
i just came back to this post and looking at it again and based on what i see in terms of FUTURES contracts, which contract are u looking at 82 bux after SANDY?
please do not point me the DC chart.
i would like to know how did u get to 82 bux and what contract.
I assure you that i have the contract in my mind .
if u wish to share ur thoughts PM me.
if not then it is a ok anyway.
cheers


----------



## liquidfinance

Things seem fairly ugly at the moment. 

I'm looking at increasing my holding of either VOD or BP in my UK portfolio. Thinking it may be best to park the cash for a while. 
I have a deeling this could be the trend now till the fiscal cliff issue is resolved. Also Europe are saying there may not be a decision on the current Greece issue till November. 

Thoughts?


----------



## Nemo2

liquidfinance said:


> Also Europe are saying there may not be a decision on the current Greece issue till November.


'Tis November now......


> _Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
> Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
> To the last syllable of recorded time;
> And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
> The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
> Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
> That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
> And then is heard no more_


----------



## webber22

In true can-kicking fashion, the decision is delayed until December 22, 2012, a day after the end of the world :distress:


----------



## jcgd

webber22 said:


> In true can-kicking fashion, the decision is delayed until December 22, 2012, a day after the end of the world :distress:


That brings new meaning to "dodging the issue".


----------



## liquidfinance

Nemo2 said:


> 'Tis November now......


This is true 

I meant the end of the month.


----------



## Belguy

YTD, the TSX is up 2.02%!!!!

We're in the money!!!!:stupid::encouragement::cool-new::drunk:


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

Belguy said:


> YTD, the TSX is up 2.02%!!!!
> 
> We're in the money!!!!:stupid::encouragement::cool-new::drunk:


lol. Buy and Hold baby!, lol.


----------



## Square Root

Cal said:


> I would say most dividend investors fall into that category too. They aren't too concerned with daily ups and downs of the market, as long as the company maintains its dividend and they get their monthly or quarterly cheque, there really isn't alot to panic about on a daily basis.


This would describe me. My divs are very secure and I don't worry much about the daily stock price movements. 4% yield plus maybe 5-7% cap appreciation. Good enough for me. Haven't sold anything in about 2 years.


----------



## GoldStone

Belguy said:


> YTD, the TSX is up 2.02%!!!!


That's price return. You forgot the dividends. YTD total return is 4.52%. Nothing to get excited about, but better than kick in the teeth.


----------



## Dibs

Lots of red today! Maybe it is time to revive this thread.


----------



## andrewf

Gold is plummeting. No one should be surprised--it has been below its 200 SMA since December.


----------



## SkyFall

Terrible day for me AUQ.to worst stock I ever hold is killing me it's down over 10% happy to see that BB.to is still holding even tho it just dropped few days ago.


----------



## james4beach

Actually all commodities have been weak for a few months now.

The recent heavy selling seems to go beyond gold, and involves energy too (looking at USO and DBC)

The serious concern I now have is, if commodities can decline so much in spite of unprecedented huge central bank action (USA & Japan)... why should stocks be any safer? Commodities could be reflecting weakness in the global economy, and ineffectiveness of money printing as a route to 'recovery'


----------



## doctrine

My Canadian portfolio is showing down 0.8%. Once again not regretting having no materials and lower than average energy holdings. 

Remember, the best cure for high commodity prices is low commodity prices.


----------



## Dibs

Reviving an oldie but goodie. I'm not getting smoked yet, but maybe soon? My holdings were red across the board on Thursday and Friday except for my REITs.


----------



## Belguy

By their very nature, the stock markets never, ever go up forever in a straight line. Anyone who can't live with that reality should perhaps play a different game with their money. Might I suggest, for example a nice ladder of GIC' s. You won't get rich but neither will you lose money except possibly to inflation.

Do not put money in the stock market that you will need within five years and do not try to time the markets.


----------



## gibor365

Belguy said:


> Might I suggest, for example a nice ladder of GIC' s. You won't get rich but neither will you lose money except possibly to inflation.
> 
> Do not put money in the stock market that you will need within five years and do not try to time the markets.


But this is a very high possibility (interest rates).... and if you locked money for 5 years , you cannot do anything about it.... Imagine Canadian economy in big trouble, inflation is high, government is printing more and more paper $, CAD$ is 50-60 US cents... what will worth those 2.5% for 5 years?


----------



## liquidfinance

Anyone? :hopelessness:


Looking forward to this. Time to save some cash and sift through the wreckage.


----------



## Pluto

Nope. Didn't get smoked. Overall value went up.


----------



## KaeJS

Down a bit today, but most of you know I play it risky.


----------



## Eder

I am down a Porsche the last few days and felt bad till I remembered I was up a Winnebago for the year. Looking forward to Santa rally coming... 84 more sleeps!


----------



## mrPPincer

A Santa rally after a 5 year bull market, interesting.
So you expect a correction within the next 84 days?


----------



## KaeJS

Eder said:


> I am down a Porsche the last few days


These posts are going to make me end up _down a river_ from jealousy.


----------



## Eder

KaeJS said:


> These posts are going to make me end up _down a river_ from jealousy.


By the time you get my age I'm sure you will be very affluent...

I have no idea about whether we get a correction or go up another 10% by Christmas, just mentioned Santa rally to cheer up this thread.


----------



## Addy

I am down a cheap second hand toyota. Which may hurt me more than Eder. Heh.


----------



## mrPPincer

< down by maybe a rusty ford pinto, but I was up by a Lada hatchback or two, so I can't complain, no sour grapes here


----------



## birdman

Down 3% over the past week or so but still up 15% YTD (including divies).


----------



## cashinstinct

I am down by a new iPhone... it helps to be Young and not-yet-rich 

EDIIT / ADD: (Maybe two iPhones now? lol)


----------



## sikko

Down a 2015 EX-L, blood pressure up a tad, past few day did give my heart a good exercise!


----------



## bds

Down about 4% so far. Decently timed for me, I'm going to be moving some money around so I can get some deals... hopefully near the bottom.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Eder said:


> I am down a Porsche the last few days and felt bad till I remembered I was up a Winnebago for the year. Looking forward to Santa rally coming... 84 more sleeps!


I'm only down a Honda Accord but put a Porsche 911 of new money into the market in the past couple of days. Still have a BMW 750Li of cash to deploy but will watch where things head in the next week first.


----------



## BoringInvestor

As of 12:30, I'm down 2.38% this month (0.95% on the day).


----------



## Canadian

Down 2.75% this month. Trying to save cash for some purchases if the slide continues.


----------



## GoldStone

I am down 4.4% since Sept 5. That doesn't sound too bad in % terms. But in $ terms, ouch.


----------



## etfstrader

*a*



Canadian said:


> Down 2.75% this month. Trying to save cash for some purchases if the slide continues.


I strong believe this pull-back is likely over by middle of October before Santa Claus rally kicks in :biggrin:


----------



## liquidfinance

Holy smokes!


----------



## BoringInvestor

My gains from July and August have been almost entirely wiped out from the losses in September and October.


----------



## liquidfinance

ISM PMI came in lower than expected. Not a good sign. Especially when sentiment is already turning negative.


----------



## james4beach

These are tiny movements. If you're feeling significant pain or stress from losses and portfolio declines *then you have too much money invested in stocks*.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Did some buying this afternoon. Picked up VWO and DEM (both down over 10% in the last month) and some XIC.


----------



## gibor365

james4beach said:


> These are tiny movements. If you're feeling significant pain or stress from losses and portfolio declines *then you have too much money invested in stocks*.


and if you don't feel any pain, you are masochist


----------



## gibor365

BoringInvestor said:


> My gains from July and August have been almost entirely wiped out from the losses in September and October.


SO far I'm down about 2.5% from max I reached about 1.5 months ago.... and , yes, in $ value - amount is significant.... the positive thing that this months was the best dividend month in my investment history


----------



## doctrine

Good sales keep getting better. I have cash, although the correction in some names is becoming strong enough that it might make sense to see if they bottom or not. There are a lot of stocks that can bounce 10% and are still screaming buys, but might still go lower. Decisions, decisions...


----------



## Jon_Snow

Got access to 200k on a HELOC that I've never used. There is temptation there. 

Still have a decent amount of cash to deploy first.

Same as Gibor, my dividend stream has never been bigger... makes this market easier to stomach.


----------



## gibor365

Jon_Snow said:


> Same as Gibor, my dividend stream has never been bigger... makes this market easier to stomach.


This is why I like dividend investing... market crushed today, but i got dividends from more than dozen names today 




> Got access to 200k on a HELOC that I've never used. There is temptation there


 not for me  even though I also have access to HELOC, used it only long time ago when was paying of mortgage... still have cash available, include for this year our RRRSP contributions...
Jon, what are you watching?


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## liquidfinance

Market brutality at it's finest today. Ouch! chin up. Compensated for by a 15% pay rise


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## atrp2biz

To ease the pain, especially for the younger CMFers, just think about how much more money you will put into the markets for the rest of your life as compared to what you have in the markets now. For this reason, we welcome these buying opportunities.


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## Ethan

Jon_Snow said:


> Got access to 200k on a HELOC that I've never used. There is temptation there.


I borrowed $10,000 more on my HELOC this morning to buy some RBC and HWO.


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## doctrine

Did something happen on the markets today? I just checked in and I'm up for the day..thanks, ACQ.

By the way, a good read for those concerned about Canadian energy companies.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-february/article20867170/#dashboard/follows/


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## gibor365

SPY managed to end day slightly in positive territory after mid day dip of more than 1% ... will be interesting day tomorrow....


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