# Iran and the Price of Oil



## kaleb0 (Apr 26, 2011)

Just found this article from the New York Times via Yahoo! Finance:

Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz

I haven't played much in the energy sector but articles like this make me think very hard about it. Any thoughts?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

As the article states it seems unlikely but possible that Iran closes the straight. I would see this as being a lot better for the US then Iran. This would give the US the chance to do some serious damage to Iran's fleet and also give them a chance to possibly attack the nuclear assets in Iran.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

If the EU embargoes Iran, Iran oil goes to Asia, Saudi oil going to Asia is redirected to Europe. Saudi Arabia and Libya also said they will increase supply to replace Iranian oil to Europe. The result is just a logistics exercise. Secondly the Strait could never be closed for an extended period, people are severely underestimating the power of the US military.


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## DanFo (Apr 9, 2011)

Huumm i got an oil stock in Libya could help me out some


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## Daniel A. (Mar 20, 2011)

The middle east is so unstable now I think that anything Iran does just gives the USA an opportunity to step on them.

As world economy's continue to slide there will be less demand for oil this year.
I do worry about the middle east as a whole though.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

Daniel A. said:


> The middle east has always been unstable


fixed.


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## uptoolate (Oct 9, 2011)

Oh yes please fire some missiles at a US supercarrier in an election year! Can you imagine. Nuclear attack subs v the Iranian Navy and Tomahawks raining down on anything in Iran that might be even remotely linked to their nuclear programme! It's win-win! Oh wait, except for the actual people of Iran.


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## Daniel A. (Mar 20, 2011)

KaeJS said:


> fixed.


Now now have some faith.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

ddkay said:


> I The result is just a logistics exercise. Secondly the Strait could never be closed for an extended period, people are severely underestimating the power of the US military.


The US economy and their huge military machine depend on oil and they will protect the oil supply anyway they can. 
They have B2 stealth bombers, Nighthawk stealth fighters, cruise missles, and several aircraft carriers with huge armanent base to fight it out off the coast of Iran for several weeks, if it takes that long. All they have to do is knock out
the radar and hydro/nuclear electric generators and that's all she wrote for Iran.

Iran can try to flex their muscles all they want..but when push comes to shove facing the US military machine..they will succumb very quicky under "shock and awe" like Saddam did.

I expect that the next regional confrontation will be over oil...and the big winner(s) will be?

US, Britain, France and any other "coalition of the willing" that can afford
to join them..

Losers? Iran

Sitting on the fence and making money hand over fist:
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Libya and probably Iraq.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

Daniel A. said:


> T
> As world economy's continue to slide there will be less demand for oil this year.
> I do worry about the middle east as a whole though.


The only reason there will be less demand for oil..is the skyrocketing oil prices once the sword rattling gets serious. 
The world is so dependent on oil (especially the US), that any middle east crisis will be resolved very quickly! 

Blockade anything that stops the oil tankers and the cruise missles start flying! The US (as George Bush Sr.
mentioned in the '91 (operation desert storm-Saddam's takeover of Kuwait and the oil reserves)..
We are part of the "New World Order".


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## ghostryder (Apr 5, 2009)

dogcom said:


> As the article states it seems unlikely but possible that Iran closes the straight. I would see this as being a lot better for the US then Iran.



Wouldn't it also make it hard for Iran to export/sell their oil? And import the diesel & gas they need? Last I heard, Iran doesn't/can't refine enough for their own domestic use. How long would the present Iranian leadership stay in power if the people were severely deprived of refined products?


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

ghostryder said:


> Wouldn't it also make it hard for Iran to export/sell their oil? And import the diesel & gas they need? Last I heard, Iran doesn't/can't refine enough for their own domestic use. How long would the present Iranian leadership stay in power if the people were severely deprived of refined products?


Iran is a totalitarian gov't. It doesn't matter how much the people are inconvenienced for lack of refining capacity. 
The fact is that the current regime WILL put down any uprising (just like Assad in Syria) and do it brutally,
never mind the body count. We all remember what happened when Gaddifi was still in charge.

<from online sources>
Ahmadinejad is a controversial figure both within Iran and internationally. He has been criticized domestically for his economic lapses and disregard for human rights. He launched a gas rationing plan in 2007 to reduce the country's fuel consumption, and cut the interest rates that private and public banking facilities could charge. He supports Iran's nuclear energy program. His election to a second term in 2009 was widely disputed and caused widespread protests domestically and drew significant international criticism. In 2011 the presence of a so-called "deviant current" among his aides and supporters led to the arrest of several of them. <end of extraction>

Iran has secret police and informers that are paid by the secret police (similar to Hitler's Gestapo)...if you go against the regime openly.. you could be taken somewhere, and never seen again. Saddam had a industrial meat grinder to dispose of any of his critics and dissenters during his regime. Iran has "quick justice"..a bullet, a hangmans noose..that's the way it
is in the third world, especially some parts of the middle east.

The only way that things could change (and not necessarily for the better, like what happened in Iraq, when the US invaded under pretex of "Iraqi Freedom"... is that the transfer of power/brutality takes place between one faction (dictator who is 
deposed) and another...subversive elements that will continue to bomb and destroy any central gov't that may try to establish some law and order out of the chaos as what has happened in Iraq. 

If push comes to shove, the US may get themselves embroiled in yet another middle east war..over oil.


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## jagger (Jan 12, 2011)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiBzw75KH9c&feature=related


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