# Vancouver real estate



## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

I think this has been discussed before, the overseas influence on the Vancouver market, here is a case in point.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...s-40-above-asking-chinese-buyers-go-full-tilt


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## steve41 (Apr 18, 2009)

Yeah. That's got 60 years old written all over it. Not.


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

steve41 said:


> Yeah. That's got 60 years old written all over it. Not.


regardless, 40% is significant.


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## OurBigFatWallet (Jan 20, 2014)

75 year old Vancouver home listed for $12 million: http://www.theprovince.com/business...ion+will+likely+torn+down/11125731/story.html


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

Then the BC Real Estate Board says that foreign buyers are not the cause:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Barbara+Yaffe+Gobsmacked+buyers+unlikely+believe+experts+real+estate+realities/11125262/story.html


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## daledegagne (Apr 6, 2015)

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Then the BC Real Estate Board says that foreign buyers are not the cause:
> http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Barbara+Yaffe+Gobsmacked+buyers+unlikely+believe+experts+real+estate+realities/11125262/story.html


While they have a point (population growth) it doesn't explain runaway prices. Vancouver population growth was very close to being inline with Canadian averages....not sure that constitutes the entire issue.

The overseas money seems like a contributing factor that can't be ignored. But to be honest, I'm not really up on it all so anyone who wants to school me on these economics may feel free to do so.

I do wonder though - how does this affect Victoria prices?

We are considering property purchases in the Greater Victoria Area and are concerned about possible corrections.


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## rl1983 (Jun 17, 2015)

I'm in Vancouver, and the last 3 months here, it's gotten too out of control. The wages locally here, even with dual-incomes cannot keep up with these prices. I'm priced out of moving on to the next step until there ( or if ) there is a correction. Foreign money is the only logical explanation as to why the market is 30-40% over-valued.


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## steve41 (Apr 18, 2009)

It is geography. You have 3 major waterways (Burrard inlet, false creek and the Fraser), the mountains to the north and the ocean to the west. There is no place to expand except up the Valley, and then the ALR gets in the way.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

People used the same reasoning in San Diego and it got squashed in the correction.

There is very little foreign influence, this has been proven with data. people just bid up each other and are lent the amount.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Recent oceanfront place in West Van sold for $1.1 million over list at $4.1 million. Bidding war among Chinese buyers.

Most people are being forced to stay put. The ones that want to upgrade cannot afford it. And the ones that want to downsize cannot get new smaller places for less than their older big places.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

kcowan said:


> And the ones that want to downsize cannot get new smaller places for less than their older big places.


How does that make any sense?


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Vancouver is typical of Canadian real estate the way Jim Carey is a typical Canadian wage earner. Vancouver may not be on the same planet as the rest of Canada.


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

none said:


> How does that make any sense?


In Vancouver, a lot of people are buying the lot, not the house. They want to tear it down and build new so the size of the house has very little to do with the selling price.


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## ohsmarketing (Mar 24, 2015)

It is improving and famous worldwide everyone, like to visit on Vancouver and investment, should be great to get benefits through Vancouver real estate.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

ohsmarketing said:


> It is improving and famous worldwide everyone, like to visit on Vancouver and investment, should be great to get benefits through Vancouver real estate.


Bullshit.


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## rl1983 (Jun 17, 2015)

I'm still having trouble believing the banks are issuing mortgages for these amounts. I'm really curious to see what will happen when ( and they will ) interest rates increase. 

If I was a bank, I would be counting on it and be leery of lending such outrageous amounts. I predict a US style foreclosures coming to Vancouver and Toronto if this does happen.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

If interest rates rise enough it would most likely be around the world and at that point we will have much more to worry about then just Vancouver real estate.

Vancouver real estate, New York real estate, bond bubble, fine art, stocks are a result of QE's and very low interest rates. Rising interest rates would crash the bond bubble and everything else in its path.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Rates should have risen a few basis points years ago. Now we're into a bigger mess waiting to happen. The longer rates stay low, the more folks borrow (including government) and the worse the crash will be.

Jut my $0.02.

I'm killing my mortgage as fast as I reasonably can and saving money for the rainy / crash days.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

This is the unfair critcism against the market correction predictions. Yes, the market will have a big correction when interest rates go up -- everyone reasonably assumes that they will some day. I've given up timing it - it'll happen when it happens.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I am thinking young couples with no kids and no idea what their expenses are going to be if or when they do have kids.

There is more to pay for in life than your mortgage payment.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

none said:


> How does that make any sense?


My sister is in that position right now.

They are getting close to their retirement age, and own a very large 4 bedroom home with several recreation rooms, family rooms and dens.

All their kids are gone so they want to downsize.

The problem is that their home is 30 years old and is "worth" less than a much smaller new home. (Buyers put more value on "new" homes)

They can sell and downsize but they would have to pay extra in cash or get a mortgage.

My brother in law has a DC pension that has just recently recovered from a 50% loss in the recession, and my sister has a few thousand dollars in RRSPs............and that is it.

They look rich on paper...........home paid off and a couple hundred thousand in the bank, but they are struggling to figure out how they can pay for retirement.

I suggested they consider renting...............and they just laughed at that idea.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

We bought a new home early in the development of the subdivision.

It was interesting watching the new streets and homes fill up the neighborhood and we used to watch to see how long the people would stay.

A lot of people lasted about a year of furious activity...........landscaping, fencing etc............and then the for sale sign went up.

Another couple moved in and a year or so later..............another for sale sign went up.

In the 15 years we lived there, all of our neighbours had changed several times. 

I presume it is because people either couldn't afford what they bought or wanted to buy something else.

In either case, they counted on higher home values to enable their moving around.

If interest rates go up and prices go down..........and they are trapped in the house, there is going to be a lot of unhappy restless people.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

sags said:


> In the 15 years we lived there, all of our neighbours had changed several times.
> 
> I presume it is because people either couldn't afford what they bought or wanted to buy something else.
> 
> In either case, if interest rates go up and they are trapped in the house, there is going to be a lot of unhappy people.


Or maybe it's you


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

LOL...........maybe.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I think people just don't care what they owe.............as long as they can get what they want now.

My buddy bought his home in the 1970s and paid $35,000 for it.

When he passed away in 2006 he owed $250,000 on the same house...............after 36 years of mortgage payments.

Such is the way of things these days.

But he was smart enough to life insure everything he owed, so he is probably laughing about it now............in the Upper Room.


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## daledegagne (Apr 6, 2015)

sags said:


> The problem is that their home is 30 years old and is "worth" less than a much smaller new home. (Buyers put more value on "new" homes)



Have the really looked into renovating and updating? The cost of renovations is peanuts compared to the property value. Even if they spent $50 sq ft renovating the entire thing (assuming the house is livable right now, that's a lot) they may be able to make their home 'like new' and get top dollar for it.

Personally, I love finding properties like this - where the owner doesn't want the hassle, or doesn't think about updating the house. These are gems to make a few good bucks.


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## rl1983 (Jun 17, 2015)

sags said:


> My buddy bought his home in the 1970s and paid $35,000 for it.
> 
> When he passed away in 2006 he owed $250,000 on the same house...............after 36 years of mortgage payments.


Did he get burned by the interest rates in the early 1980s?


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

http://www.theprovince.com/travel/C...loose+regulations/11262931/story.html?ref=yfp


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## Hawkdog (Oct 26, 2012)

none said:


> People used the same reasoning in San Diego and it got squashed in the correction.
> 
> There is very little foreign influence, this has been proven with data. people just bid up each other and are lent the amount.


Bullshit.


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## Woz (Sep 5, 2013)

I think foreign investment is one factor, but interest rates are the obvious primary driver for the overall market growth. A 1% drop in interest rates allows someone to carry a 10% larger mortgage. Mortgage rates have dropped 3% since Jan-2008 and whaddayaknow real estate’s gone up by 34% in Vancouver. If foreign investment was the primary driver then that doesn’t explain why the national composite has increased by a similar 33% during the same time span.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Woz said:


> I think foreign investment is one factor, but interest rates are the obvious primary driver for the overall market growth. A 1% drop in interest rates allows someone to carry a 10% larger mortgage. Mortgage rates have dropped 3% since Jan-2008 and whaddayaknow real estate’s gone up by 34% in Vancouver. If foreign investment was the primary driver then that doesn’t explain why the national composite has increased by a similar 33% during the same time span.


Haha, the dreamers wanted this to happen. That it is the locals bidding up the price and the foreigners just leave it empty.

What's really happening is that the foreigners are buying through the locals. i.e. their sons and daughters with residence or citizenship (or outright buy one themselves through the investor residence program in quebec). AND... here's the kicker. They are moving into these houses, or if they are not living here, they are renting it out to people who desperately need a place to stay at 3% of the capital cost. Landlords subsidizing renters, it's a win win actually. (Otherwise a 5% ROI makes more financial sense).

The reason why there's rumors of foreigners who doesn't live here is because of condos. Those I think are rented out to AirBNB or temporary renters.

No stats from my reasoning. Just talking to a shitload of Realtors, bankers and everyone associated with this ponzi throughout the years.


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