# Netflix - Is everybody nuts or is it me?



## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Does anyone here have NFLX in their portfolio? I don't and won't be buying anytime soon but there's people who must be selling off like crazy with the price it's at now. I imagine there will be something else come along and Netflix won't be as popular as it is currently.


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Jan 25, 2013 (Analyst Reflections via COMTEX News Network) -- Janney Montgomery upgraded NetFlix (NASDAQ:NFLX) from Neutral to Buy a week ago. The shares closed at $146.86, or 50.7% over the $97.48 price of one week ago.

Insane.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

A few months ago yorba radio interviewed a guy that working on the future method for tv. 

There would be 2 options a cheaper package that had advertising & a more expensive one for no advertising.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

The company has no real moat. There are powerful competitors lining up against them (Apple, Google, Amazon). They have no chance of winning this and at this valuation little chance of being bought out at a premium.

They must have a PE around 100 again.

If you are into shorting, this one may be good but who knows how far it can run up again.

I wouldn't touch this one. It's a worse investment than Facebook.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I somewhat disagree. There is no true competition yet; a product that is as cheap, has as much content and is as accessible/multi-platform as Netflix. There are other products, but they do not come close in all 3 categories. But, I wouldn't buy the stock unless it was valued well. It's got Amazon-level insanity P/E.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.

Netflix has very little content that they truly own. They buy short-term licences to stream other people's products.

What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.

They do have a first-mover advantage. However, the cost of their licencing versus the fees they charge generates very little profit. They also have very little pricing power as demonstrated by what happened when they split their US services and tried to increase fees - I think they lost a ton of subscribers. 

I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

PMREdmonton said:


> My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.


True, but they recently signed that huge deal with Disney movie studios.
In turn, Disney is acquiring several major movie themes and franchises like the Star Wars.
This is giving Netflix access to a lot of premium content.



> What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.


It will hurt content makers more if they want to do this.
For instance, Disney has its own TV channel, but it's not as popular, and not as profitable as licensing their content to other providers.
Sure, Apple can (and does) compete in this space and will no doubt win a price war against Netflix.
But that race to the bottom will hurt Apple more, esp. once they butt heads directly with the Bells and Rogers of this space.



> I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


I agree with that.
This is a good trading stock given its volatility and the fickle nature of consumers.
But they do have a small "moat", good customer base, and some worthwhile assets.


----------



## SpIcEz (Jan 8, 2013)

Anyone keeping tabs on this stock?
I keep looking at it, wondering if its hit some kind of ceiling, but in 6 months it gained almost 200%, with 150% of that since January.

In the last five days its gone up alot also.

What worries me is the very thin margins...

Anyone else with insight?


----------



## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

The idea of the product is fantastic. The execution (at least in Canada) is brutal. The only reason I have Netflix is because I haven't bothered to cancel my account yet. In a consumer discretionary stock, I have to believe in the product. I don't believe in the product. Add lots of competition and the insane multiple, and I lose all interest.


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I look at the insane multiple and stop there. Research goes no further.


----------



## rknigh2 (Jun 5, 2012)

I have it in my "short" watchlist. Sitting with other crazy valuation stocks like LNKD, AMZN, FB. I haven't bought any puts for NFLX yet, it has just too much momentum. I fully expect it to reach its highs. I just can't put my money in a 500 PE stock. At 280-300 it becomes a very attractive short candidate. 

I'm waiting for the YouTube hammer to put the nails in the coffin.


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


----------



## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

1sImage said:


> Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


Its insane how much of a tear this stock has been on this past week!


----------



## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

^yup...

Got out today @339

Didn't look for 1 hour and missed the sell off at peek. Damn job


----------



## WillyA (Apr 14, 2011)

Icahn killed it on this one, I must say I never saw this coming http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/us-usa-stocks-netflix-idUSBRE99L1MO20131022


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## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

MoreMiles said:


> Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


Tell that to Icahn!

Oh those billionare gamblers.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

1sImage said:


> Oh those billionare gamblers.


Forget about billionaires, they aren't on this forum. 

For the purely long-term investors, it doesn't matter what happens in a day/week/month/year, no? So what's the problem?


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm not really all that interested in the share price movements--I find the business models more interesting.


----------



## Barneystinson (Jan 16, 2015)

Hey guys, Im new here and in the investment area in general. I bought some shares of netflix when it went down from 480$ to 360 and I was wondering if I should keep or sell? The share is now at 330 but I dont know if it will get higher or not with the HBO announcment. 

What do you guys think?

I keep or I sell?


----------



## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Does anyone here have NFLX in their portfolio? I don't and won't be buying anytime soon but there's people who must be selling off like crazy with the price it's at now. I imagine there will be something else come along and Netflix won't be as popular as it is currently.


----------



## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Jan 25, 2013 (Analyst Reflections via COMTEX News Network) -- Janney Montgomery upgraded NetFlix (NASDAQ:NFLX) from Neutral to Buy a week ago. The shares closed at $146.86, or 50.7% over the $97.48 price of one week ago.

Insane.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

A few months ago yorba radio interviewed a guy that working on the future method for tv. 

There would be 2 options a cheaper package that had advertising & a more expensive one for no advertising.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

The company has no real moat. There are powerful competitors lining up against them (Apple, Google, Amazon). They have no chance of winning this and at this valuation little chance of being bought out at a premium.

They must have a PE around 100 again.

If you are into shorting, this one may be good but who knows how far it can run up again.

I wouldn't touch this one. It's a worse investment than Facebook.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I somewhat disagree. There is no true competition yet; a product that is as cheap, has as much content and is as accessible/multi-platform as Netflix. There are other products, but they do not come close in all 3 categories. But, I wouldn't buy the stock unless it was valued well. It's got Amazon-level insanity P/E.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.

Netflix has very little content that they truly own. They buy short-term licences to stream other people's products.

What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.

They do have a first-mover advantage. However, the cost of their licencing versus the fees they charge generates very little profit. They also have very little pricing power as demonstrated by what happened when they split their US services and tried to increase fees - I think they lost a ton of subscribers. 

I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

PMREdmonton said:


> My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.


True, but they recently signed that huge deal with Disney movie studios.
In turn, Disney is acquiring several major movie themes and franchises like the Star Wars.
This is giving Netflix access to a lot of premium content.



> What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.


It will hurt content makers more if they want to do this.
For instance, Disney has its own TV channel, but it's not as popular, and not as profitable as licensing their content to other providers.
Sure, Apple can (and does) compete in this space and will no doubt win a price war against Netflix.
But that race to the bottom will hurt Apple more, esp. once they butt heads directly with the Bells and Rogers of this space.



> I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


I agree with that.
This is a good trading stock given its volatility and the fickle nature of consumers.
But they do have a small "moat", good customer base, and some worthwhile assets.


----------



## SpIcEz (Jan 8, 2013)

Anyone keeping tabs on this stock?
I keep looking at it, wondering if its hit some kind of ceiling, but in 6 months it gained almost 200%, with 150% of that since January.

In the last five days its gone up alot also.

What worries me is the very thin margins...

Anyone else with insight?


----------



## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

The idea of the product is fantastic. The execution (at least in Canada) is brutal. The only reason I have Netflix is because I haven't bothered to cancel my account yet. In a consumer discretionary stock, I have to believe in the product. I don't believe in the product. Add lots of competition and the insane multiple, and I lose all interest.


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I look at the insane multiple and stop there. Research goes no further.


----------



## rknigh2 (Jun 5, 2012)

I have it in my "short" watchlist. Sitting with other crazy valuation stocks like LNKD, AMZN, FB. I haven't bought any puts for NFLX yet, it has just too much momentum. I fully expect it to reach its highs. I just can't put my money in a 500 PE stock. At 280-300 it becomes a very attractive short candidate. 

I'm waiting for the YouTube hammer to put the nails in the coffin.


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


----------



## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

1sImage said:


> Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


Its insane how much of a tear this stock has been on this past week!


----------



## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

^yup...

Got out today @339

Didn't look for 1 hour and missed the sell off at peek. Damn job


----------



## WillyA (Apr 14, 2011)

Icahn killed it on this one, I must say I never saw this coming http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/us-usa-stocks-netflix-idUSBRE99L1MO20131022


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

MoreMiles said:


> Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


Tell that to Icahn!

Oh those billionare gamblers.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

1sImage said:


> Oh those billionare gamblers.


Forget about billionaires, they aren't on this forum. 

For the purely long-term investors, it doesn't matter what happens in a day/week/month/year, no? So what's the problem?


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm not really all that interested in the share price movements--I find the business models more interesting.


----------



## Barneystinson (Jan 16, 2015)

Hey guys, Im new here and in the investment area in general. I bought some shares of netflix when it went down from 480$ to 360 and I was wondering if I should keep or sell? The share is now at 330 but I dont know if it will get higher or not with the HBO announcment. 

What do you guys think?

I keep or I sell?


----------



## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Does anyone here have NFLX in their portfolio? I don't and won't be buying anytime soon but there's people who must be selling off like crazy with the price it's at now. I imagine there will be something else come along and Netflix won't be as popular as it is currently.


----------



## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Jan 25, 2013 (Analyst Reflections via COMTEX News Network) -- Janney Montgomery upgraded NetFlix (NASDAQ:NFLX) from Neutral to Buy a week ago. The shares closed at $146.86, or 50.7% over the $97.48 price of one week ago.

Insane.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

A few months ago yorba radio interviewed a guy that working on the future method for tv. 

There would be 2 options a cheaper package that had advertising & a more expensive one for no advertising.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

The company has no real moat. There are powerful competitors lining up against them (Apple, Google, Amazon). They have no chance of winning this and at this valuation little chance of being bought out at a premium.

They must have a PE around 100 again.

If you are into shorting, this one may be good but who knows how far it can run up again.

I wouldn't touch this one. It's a worse investment than Facebook.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I somewhat disagree. There is no true competition yet; a product that is as cheap, has as much content and is as accessible/multi-platform as Netflix. There are other products, but they do not come close in all 3 categories. But, I wouldn't buy the stock unless it was valued well. It's got Amazon-level insanity P/E.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.

Netflix has very little content that they truly own. They buy short-term licences to stream other people's products.

What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.

They do have a first-mover advantage. However, the cost of their licencing versus the fees they charge generates very little profit. They also have very little pricing power as demonstrated by what happened when they split their US services and tried to increase fees - I think they lost a ton of subscribers. 

I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

PMREdmonton said:


> My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.


True, but they recently signed that huge deal with Disney movie studios.
In turn, Disney is acquiring several major movie themes and franchises like the Star Wars.
This is giving Netflix access to a lot of premium content.



> What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.


It will hurt content makers more if they want to do this.
For instance, Disney has its own TV channel, but it's not as popular, and not as profitable as licensing their content to other providers.
Sure, Apple can (and does) compete in this space and will no doubt win a price war against Netflix.
But that race to the bottom will hurt Apple more, esp. once they butt heads directly with the Bells and Rogers of this space.



> I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


I agree with that.
This is a good trading stock given its volatility and the fickle nature of consumers.
But they do have a small "moat", good customer base, and some worthwhile assets.


----------



## SpIcEz (Jan 8, 2013)

Anyone keeping tabs on this stock?
I keep looking at it, wondering if its hit some kind of ceiling, but in 6 months it gained almost 200%, with 150% of that since January.

In the last five days its gone up alot also.

What worries me is the very thin margins...

Anyone else with insight?


----------



## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

The idea of the product is fantastic. The execution (at least in Canada) is brutal. The only reason I have Netflix is because I haven't bothered to cancel my account yet. In a consumer discretionary stock, I have to believe in the product. I don't believe in the product. Add lots of competition and the insane multiple, and I lose all interest.


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I look at the insane multiple and stop there. Research goes no further.


----------



## rknigh2 (Jun 5, 2012)

I have it in my "short" watchlist. Sitting with other crazy valuation stocks like LNKD, AMZN, FB. I haven't bought any puts for NFLX yet, it has just too much momentum. I fully expect it to reach its highs. I just can't put my money in a 500 PE stock. At 280-300 it becomes a very attractive short candidate. 

I'm waiting for the YouTube hammer to put the nails in the coffin.


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


----------



## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

1sImage said:


> Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


Its insane how much of a tear this stock has been on this past week!


----------



## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

^yup...

Got out today @339

Didn't look for 1 hour and missed the sell off at peek. Damn job


----------



## WillyA (Apr 14, 2011)

Icahn killed it on this one, I must say I never saw this coming http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/us-usa-stocks-netflix-idUSBRE99L1MO20131022


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

MoreMiles said:


> Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


Tell that to Icahn!

Oh those billionare gamblers.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

1sImage said:


> Oh those billionare gamblers.


Forget about billionaires, they aren't on this forum. 

For the purely long-term investors, it doesn't matter what happens in a day/week/month/year, no? So what's the problem?


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm not really all that interested in the share price movements--I find the business models more interesting.


----------



## Barneystinson (Jan 16, 2015)

Hey guys, Im new here and in the investment area in general. I bought some shares of netflix when it went down from 480$ to 360 and I was wondering if I should keep or sell? The share is now at 330 but I dont know if it will get higher or not with the HBO announcment. 

What do you guys think?

I keep or I sell?


----------



## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Does anyone here have NFLX in their portfolio? I don't and won't be buying anytime soon but there's people who must be selling off like crazy with the price it's at now. I imagine there will be something else come along and Netflix won't be as popular as it is currently.


----------



## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Jan 25, 2013 (Analyst Reflections via COMTEX News Network) -- Janney Montgomery upgraded NetFlix (NASDAQ:NFLX) from Neutral to Buy a week ago. The shares closed at $146.86, or 50.7% over the $97.48 price of one week ago.

Insane.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

A few months ago yorba radio interviewed a guy that working on the future method for tv. 

There would be 2 options a cheaper package that had advertising & a more expensive one for no advertising.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

The company has no real moat. There are powerful competitors lining up against them (Apple, Google, Amazon). They have no chance of winning this and at this valuation little chance of being bought out at a premium.

They must have a PE around 100 again.

If you are into shorting, this one may be good but who knows how far it can run up again.

I wouldn't touch this one. It's a worse investment than Facebook.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I somewhat disagree. There is no true competition yet; a product that is as cheap, has as much content and is as accessible/multi-platform as Netflix. There are other products, but they do not come close in all 3 categories. But, I wouldn't buy the stock unless it was valued well. It's got Amazon-level insanity P/E.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.

Netflix has very little content that they truly own. They buy short-term licences to stream other people's products.

What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.

They do have a first-mover advantage. However, the cost of their licencing versus the fees they charge generates very little profit. They also have very little pricing power as demonstrated by what happened when they split their US services and tried to increase fees - I think they lost a ton of subscribers. 

I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

PMREdmonton said:


> My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.


True, but they recently signed that huge deal with Disney movie studios.
In turn, Disney is acquiring several major movie themes and franchises like the Star Wars.
This is giving Netflix access to a lot of premium content.



> What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.


It will hurt content makers more if they want to do this.
For instance, Disney has its own TV channel, but it's not as popular, and not as profitable as licensing their content to other providers.
Sure, Apple can (and does) compete in this space and will no doubt win a price war against Netflix.
But that race to the bottom will hurt Apple more, esp. once they butt heads directly with the Bells and Rogers of this space.



> I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


I agree with that.
This is a good trading stock given its volatility and the fickle nature of consumers.
But they do have a small "moat", good customer base, and some worthwhile assets.


----------



## SpIcEz (Jan 8, 2013)

Anyone keeping tabs on this stock?
I keep looking at it, wondering if its hit some kind of ceiling, but in 6 months it gained almost 200%, with 150% of that since January.

In the last five days its gone up alot also.

What worries me is the very thin margins...

Anyone else with insight?


----------



## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

The idea of the product is fantastic. The execution (at least in Canada) is brutal. The only reason I have Netflix is because I haven't bothered to cancel my account yet. In a consumer discretionary stock, I have to believe in the product. I don't believe in the product. Add lots of competition and the insane multiple, and I lose all interest.


----------



## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I look at the insane multiple and stop there. Research goes no further.


----------



## rknigh2 (Jun 5, 2012)

I have it in my "short" watchlist. Sitting with other crazy valuation stocks like LNKD, AMZN, FB. I haven't bought any puts for NFLX yet, it has just too much momentum. I fully expect it to reach its highs. I just can't put my money in a 500 PE stock. At 280-300 it becomes a very attractive short candidate. 

I'm waiting for the YouTube hammer to put the nails in the coffin.


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


----------



## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

1sImage said:


> Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


Its insane how much of a tear this stock has been on this past week!


----------



## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

^yup...

Got out today @339

Didn't look for 1 hour and missed the sell off at peek. Damn job


----------



## WillyA (Apr 14, 2011)

Icahn killed it on this one, I must say I never saw this coming http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/us-usa-stocks-netflix-idUSBRE99L1MO20131022


----------



## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

MoreMiles said:


> Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


Tell that to Icahn!

Oh those billionare gamblers.


----------



## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

1sImage said:


> Oh those billionare gamblers.


Forget about billionaires, they aren't on this forum. 

For the purely long-term investors, it doesn't matter what happens in a day/week/month/year, no? So what's the problem?


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm not really all that interested in the share price movements--I find the business models more interesting.


----------



## Barneystinson (Jan 16, 2015)

Hey guys, Im new here and in the investment area in general. I bought some shares of netflix when it went down from 480$ to 360 and I was wondering if I should keep or sell? The share is now at 330 but I dont know if it will get higher or not with the HBO announcment. 

What do you guys think?

I keep or I sell?


----------



## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Does anyone here have NFLX in their portfolio? I don't and won't be buying anytime soon but there's people who must be selling off like crazy with the price it's at now. I imagine there will be something else come along and Netflix won't be as popular as it is currently.


----------



## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Jan 25, 2013 (Analyst Reflections via COMTEX News Network) -- Janney Montgomery upgraded NetFlix (NASDAQ:NFLX) from Neutral to Buy a week ago. The shares closed at $146.86, or 50.7% over the $97.48 price of one week ago.

Insane.


----------



## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

A few months ago yorba radio interviewed a guy that working on the future method for tv. 

There would be 2 options a cheaper package that had advertising & a more expensive one for no advertising.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

The company has no real moat. There are powerful competitors lining up against them (Apple, Google, Amazon). They have no chance of winning this and at this valuation little chance of being bought out at a premium.

They must have a PE around 100 again.

If you are into shorting, this one may be good but who knows how far it can run up again.

I wouldn't touch this one. It's a worse investment than Facebook.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I somewhat disagree. There is no true competition yet; a product that is as cheap, has as much content and is as accessible/multi-platform as Netflix. There are other products, but they do not come close in all 3 categories. But, I wouldn't buy the stock unless it was valued well. It's got Amazon-level insanity P/E.


----------



## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.

Netflix has very little content that they truly own. They buy short-term licences to stream other people's products.

What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.

They do have a first-mover advantage. However, the cost of their licencing versus the fees they charge generates very little profit. They also have very little pricing power as demonstrated by what happened when they split their US services and tried to increase fees - I think they lost a ton of subscribers. 

I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


----------



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

PMREdmonton said:


> My issue is that the power-brokers here are the content owners, not the content transmitters.


True, but they recently signed that huge deal with Disney movie studios.
In turn, Disney is acquiring several major movie themes and franchises like the Star Wars.
This is giving Netflix access to a lot of premium content.



> What happens when Apple who desperately wants to get into TV decides they would like to outbid them. What happens when the big content makers decide they can make more money by directly streaming on their own.


It will hurt content makers more if they want to do this.
For instance, Disney has its own TV channel, but it's not as popular, and not as profitable as licensing their content to other providers.
Sure, Apple can (and does) compete in this space and will no doubt win a price war against Netflix.
But that race to the bottom will hurt Apple more, esp. once they butt heads directly with the Bells and Rogers of this space.



> I just don't like this business and I hate their lack of power over content and pricing power.


I agree with that.
This is a good trading stock given its volatility and the fickle nature of consumers.
But they do have a small "moat", good customer base, and some worthwhile assets.


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## SpIcEz (Jan 8, 2013)

Anyone keeping tabs on this stock?
I keep looking at it, wondering if its hit some kind of ceiling, but in 6 months it gained almost 200%, with 150% of that since January.

In the last five days its gone up alot also.

What worries me is the very thin margins...

Anyone else with insight?


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

The idea of the product is fantastic. The execution (at least in Canada) is brutal. The only reason I have Netflix is because I haven't bothered to cancel my account yet. In a consumer discretionary stock, I have to believe in the product. I don't believe in the product. Add lots of competition and the insane multiple, and I lose all interest.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

I look at the insane multiple and stop there. Research goes no further.


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## rknigh2 (Jun 5, 2012)

I have it in my "short" watchlist. Sitting with other crazy valuation stocks like LNKD, AMZN, FB. I haven't bought any puts for NFLX yet, it has just too much momentum. I fully expect it to reach its highs. I just can't put my money in a 500 PE stock. At 280-300 it becomes a very attractive short candidate. 

I'm waiting for the YouTube hammer to put the nails in the coffin.


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## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

1sImage said:


> Bought 12 shares on Oct 15th for $300.23... Been a wild 6 days.


Its insane how much of a tear this stock has been on this past week!


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


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## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

^yup...

Got out today @339

Didn't look for 1 hour and missed the sell off at peek. Damn job


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## WillyA (Apr 14, 2011)

Icahn killed it on this one, I must say I never saw this coming http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/us-usa-stocks-netflix-idUSBRE99L1MO20131022


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## 1sImage (Jan 2, 2013)

MoreMiles said:


> Up 20% then down 20% all in the same week? This is not investing, this is gambling. You pick Big or Small and see which one comes up the next day.


Tell that to Icahn!

Oh those billionare gamblers.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

1sImage said:


> Oh those billionare gamblers.


Forget about billionaires, they aren't on this forum. 

For the purely long-term investors, it doesn't matter what happens in a day/week/month/year, no? So what's the problem?


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm not really all that interested in the share price movements--I find the business models more interesting.


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## Barneystinson (Jan 16, 2015)

Hey guys, Im new here and in the investment area in general. I bought some shares of netflix when it went down from 480$ to 360 and I was wondering if I should keep or sell? The share is now at 330 but I dont know if it will get higher or not with the HBO announcment. 

What do you guys think?

I keep or I sell?


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