# Sell Sell Sell



## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

France has gone socialist and Greece is in a coalition.
The French now want more for nothing and Greeks don't know.

Sell and short everything esp. Euro.....buy silver and gold.
Belguy has this one from here!!!!

Dow 12841
S&P 1349
Silver 30.14
Gold 1638

Long US dollar for a while


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Get your buying hats on  From my experience, it's best to let these markets fall (this will the the 4th down day in a row if it sticks) until you get a positive one, and then I'll pick up my targeted positions.


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

no kidding.
if the FX mkts managed to reverse sharp losses in europe and weaken the USD , plus maintain the euro above 1.30 so far, nothing on earth would surprise me.
everything is fine ..... in less than 6 hours.
my buying hat is at hand.
cheers
actually the spx futures reversed losses by half so far.
buy buy buy.
do ur own DD:encouragement:


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I might be wrong but France has always been Socialist, just different flavors.


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

Eder said:


> I might be wrong but France has always been Socialist, just different flavors.


Perhaps Baskin-Robbins was initially a French company? :wink:


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## scomac (Aug 22, 2009)

Nemo2 said:


> Perhaps Baskin-Robbins was initially a French company? :wink:


:highly_amused:


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

It's the end of the world again? 

Great! I missed it the last 100 times.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

This isn't a panic. It might become one eventually, but a change in French president won't cause the country to go to pot overnight.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

andrewf said:


> This isn't a panic. It might become one eventually, but a change in French president won't cause the country to go to pot overnight.


Was expecting a bloodbath today, but nothing happened. In fact 70% of my portfolio has an up day.\

IMO, the new France President is pro printing. Which is good for the stock market. Everything's A-OK


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Sell in May and go away.......stupid?????
Has a decent track record.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/568381-sell-call-options-in-may-and-go-away

is this still selling in May?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2012/05/05/could-this-be-the-year-to-buy-in-may/

if playing probabilities using historic returns the answer is not necessarily as simple as sell in may...


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Took 24 hours but the markets have reacted to Greece and anti-austerity vote.
Wait until Hollande Sauce starts with his "left wing of Attila the Hun" adgenda
Us down over 1% across the board. TSX down over 1.5%


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## indexxx (Oct 31, 2011)

Ya every position I have is going for a little toboggan ride today... except DOMK


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

indexxx said:


> Ya every position I have is going for a little toboggan ride today... except DOMK


Same here. I wonder what caused the 24 hour delay. I was so sure on Monday morning that there's going to be a bloodbath


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Causalien said:


> Same here. I wonder what caused the 24 hour delay. I was so sure on Monday morning that there's going to be a bloodbath


I also thought it would hit Monday too.
I sold everything but PM's....wish I dumped that too.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

yeah, im over 25% cash right now as alot of my stop losses are getting triggered.
oh well, put in some 2 week stink bids and see if they hit to buy the stocks back.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Asia tanking so far.
This will continues until another QE starts......then I'm hammer PM's


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

This is a signficant correction – especially in commodities.
Gold has busted below support at 1587...next is 1522 and then a tumble way down to 1407
I may have to unload some shiny stuff if we hit 1522.
Long term bull on PM's but not liking this.

Europe is still a mess.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Greece is in the batter's box with Spain on deck.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Belguy said:


> Greece is in the batter's box with Spain on deck.


Couldn't word it better.
Europe is in the Hole.

Only $$ maker for me is the Euro short.....didn't sell PM's...dang, but unloaded all the other 
stuff.

Not great but not bad.


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

Miser said:


> Asia tanking so far.
> This will continues until another QE starts......then I'm hammer PM's


u r counting on QE3?
Ben may hint with his rhetoric today of good ole arsenal the fed has.

QE3 is the last bullet he has.
he will not even dare think of using it till this mkt corrects at least 20/30% .
just my 2 cents miser.
gold is very oversold.
if it breaks very solid support at 1520 area .
it will keep drifting lower.
the dollar is excessively strong due to weakening of euro.
it may sellof a tad.
profit taking only.
boy do i like this destruction:encouragement:


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

The hardest decision is determining whether to employ available capital to scoop up apparent bargains now, or wait to see if a heard of lemmings (or is that bears) are about to be spooked into jumping off a 1000 point cliff with the recent bargain-hunter being knocked over the edge in the stampede.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I just upped our dca and put some low ball limit orders in for stocks I would buy.. so hard to time the market, no doubt some stocks are being sold off in fear (not fundamentals) and value is there.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I think we have lots of time to buy bargains...(and to wait for even better deals)...probably till November.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

Miser said:


> This is a signficant correction – especially in commodities.
> Gold has busted below support at 1587...next is 1522 and then a tumble way down to 1407
> I may have to unload some shiny stuff if we hit 1522.
> Long term bull on PM's but not liking this.
> ...


the problem is that everyone else is thinking the same thing right now ... catching a falling knife


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Jungle said:


> I just upped our dca and put some low ball limit orders in for stocks I would buy.. so hard to time the market, no doubt some stocks are being sold off in fear (not fundamentals) and value is there.


Doing the exact same. It is a great feeling when your low ball target price gets hit.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Miser said:


> This is a signficant correction – especially in commodities.
> Gold has busted below support at 1587...next is 1522 and then a tumble way down to 1407
> I may have to unload some shiny stuff if we hit 1522.


Yup, buy high and sell low, that's how to make money.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Well, I have been buying high and selling low for most of my investment life and have not made much money and so that system doesn't work!!! Any other ideas?


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Belguy said:


> Well, I have been buying high and selling low for most of my investment life and have not made much money and so that system doesn't work!!! Any other ideas?


go hide under your bed


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## Sampson (Apr 3, 2009)

Belguy said:


> Well, I have been buying high and selling low for most of my investment life and have not made much money and so that system doesn't work!!! Any other ideas?


Work to earn money.


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

Belguy said:


> Well, I have been buying high and selling low for most of my investment life and have not made much money and so that system doesn't work!!! Any other ideas?


yes.
buy low and sell high.


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

Belguy said:


> Well, I have been buying high and selling low for most of my investment life and have not made much money and so that system doesn't work!!! Any other ideas?


Have you ever asked yourself why? Perhaps your temperment and thought process would be better served as a saver instead of an investor.

From your posts, my gut feeling is that you wouldn't stand a chance hanging on to your money in the stock market. I don't mean any disrespect by the comment, just my observation and opinion.


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

Belguy said:


> Well, I have been buying high and selling low for most of my investment life and have not made much money and so that system doesn't work!!! Any other ideas?


I'd suggest you buy and never look at the stock again. Your watching of the stock is causing you to lose money. If you buy something, you probably had a good reason for it, so trust your gut. Don't watch the stock as it fluctuates, look at it maybe once a year if the markets are in a bull, otherwise ignore it. You'd probably have ridden out the waves and been just fine had you done this.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Major rise in PM's today......buzz about some QE running around again.
Euro continues to tank.......
Crap shoot as to what happens next.
Weirdest time ever......I am half in cash and thinking getting out some more.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

There is always a reason for something to rise like the PM market, but the real reason besides being in a long term secular bull market is that the stocks especially have become ridiculously oversold and unwanted. 

Belguy to the buy high and sell low problem just look at the PM sector as a recent example of buying low. Sure PM stocks may not be your cup of tea but look at how hard it has been to buy into this sector of late. For me it was very hard taking the losses over the last month but I kept averaging down on the sector because I felt it was my best chance to buy low and make some good money in the future. Sure enough I could be wrong and the PM market bull is over and I could take on some heavy losses but I am willing to take the risk because I feel the upside potential is greater then the risk to the downside.

Some people were buying the triple bear PM fund on the way down to protect their money so they didn't have to sell their gold holdings and try to find the exact bottom. This isn't my thing but it sounds like a good idea if you are scared but don't want to sell low.


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

dogcom said:


> There is always a reason for something to rise like the PM market, but the real reason besides being in a long term secular bull market is that the stocks especially have become ridiculously oversold and unwanted.
> 
> Belguy to the buy high and sell low problem just look at the PM sector as a recent example of buying low. Sure PM stocks may not be your cup of tea but look at how hard it has been to buy into this sector of late. For me it was very hard taking the losses over the last month but I kept averaging down on the sector because I felt it was my best chance to buy low and make some good money in the future. Sure enough I could be wrong and the PM market bull is over and I could take on some heavy losses but I am willing to take the risk because I feel the upside potential is greater then the risk to the downside.
> 
> Some people were buying the triple bear PM fund on the way down to protect their money so they didn't have to sell their gold holdings and try to find the exact bottom. This isn't my thing but it sounds like a good idea if you are scared but don't want to sell low.


Dog
i just want to remind you that the "rebound " was of solid support for the past 2 years at 1540.
if this "rebound" holds by all means hold ur gold stocks.
i would have tight stop losses in place.
just saying.
this may not be what it seems.
the real mkt selloff may yet be brewing
cheers and GL
p.s 
i am holding randgold

on the note 
volume has risen in all exchanges , that must be a signal no?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Thanks moneyisfornothing but I don't plan on using any stops and will go down with it if I must. I realize gold is in going into a cycle low that is seen once every three to four years and we are certainly in that now and the price of gold could easily see $1200 before a bottom is really set. I am pretty sure we are going into a nice rally cycle now that may drop out again to the ultimate bottom later so I will be selling into the rally so I don't realize those sorts of losses while holding. Again however this may not be the rally and we go lower still to before the rally really starts. I also realize that the gold stocks should lead the rally and outperform the metal on the way up as it has on the way down.


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

dogcom said:


> Thanks moneyisfornothing but I don't plan on using any stops and will go down with it if I must. I realize gold is in going into a cycle low that is seen once every three to four years and we are certainly in that now and the price of gold could easily see $1200 before a bottom is really set. I am pretty sure we are going into a nice rally cycle now that may drop out again to the ultimate bottom later so I will be selling into the rally so I don't realize those sorts of losses while holding. Again however this may not be the rally and we go lower still to before the rally really starts. I also realize that the gold stocks should lead the rally and outperform the metal on the way up as it has on the way down.


very good points dog.
everyone has a different approach.
i do place stop losses to buy back if it goes where i believe is a good entry point.
like i said rangold could go to 70 bux, and this one i do not have stop losses. as for my other 3 stocks that i hold atm.
much luck in ur trades.
if gold really hits what u said above , boy oh boy what a bargain


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

I like PM for long term bull.
All the debt will cause fiat troubles IMHO
I see it as the only repository of wealth amid falling currencies.
Short term is anybody's guess.
Gold passed through support of 1587 to close 1592.


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

Miser said:


> I like PM for long term bull.
> All the debt will cause fiat troubles IMHO
> I see it as the only repository of wealth amid falling currencies.
> Short term is anybody's guess.
> Gold passed through support of 1587 to close 1592.



miser if i take 1700 and make a regression to the lowest low we just had u will find a retracement to where we are at now.
that is 38.2% on Fibo.
i am only talking short term.
same for spx 500.
if we fall to around 1262 and i see an inflection point , i am a buyer of many other things.
including the index.
mind ya that this freefall we are witnessing is a result of panic right?:encouragement:

like i said all i know is that 1540 has been real strong support as of past 2 years
cheers

p.s i use 1540 but real number is 1520 .
20 bux do not make much difference for me in gold trading


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

moneyisfornothing said:


> miser if i take 1700 and make a regression to the lowest low we just had u will find a retracement to where we are at now.
> that is 38.2% on Fibo.
> i am only talking short term.
> same for spx 500.
> ...



Good stuff.
I have the medoza line at 1522 
I figure long is the right side but hate taking 10-20% wacks while I hold.
I got in around 1000 for most of it and shouldn't complain.
Just hate giving any back. lol
Not a pig but oink from time to time.


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

Miser said:


> Good stuff.
> I have the medoza line at 1522
> I figure long is the right side but hate taking 10-20% wacks while I hold.
> I got in around 1000 for most of it and shouldn't complain.
> ...


so far 1540 has not failed me but i have not been trading gold ( ran out of money lol) .
i hope u sold at least 50% at 1900 bux.
that was max pain for the bears at that time, just insane.
if it breaks 1640 next week , next strong resistance is 1680 which if broken it will be back to 1780 .
i am not that optimistic in regards to a such a high but it can happen.
i think that the downside is more possible atm.
i am sure the shorts are reloading really well atm
cheers.
peace out going to eat my dinner.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

I have a bad feeling about future financial events.
Call me belguy2...but I am hedged a bit. Half cash and the rest mostly PM's.

Once/if QE3 hits and has it's run.........I will short the hell out of everything but PM's
Overblown credit extension and debt, the biggest in history, is not a good thing.
The Bell tolls, and it tolls for thee that borrows beyond their ability to pay.


Have a great long weekend!!!


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## moneyisfornothing (Feb 18, 2012)

Miser said:


> I have a bad feeling about future financial events.
> Call me belguy2...but I am hedged a bit. Half cash and the rest mostly PM's.
> 
> Once/if QE3 hits and has it's run.........I will short the hell out of everything but PM's
> ...


Miser.
i am with u in terms of more downside , but if QE3 is really announced then go long bro...
it will be the rally this addicted mkt wants.
gold will deffinitely skyrocket along with silver.
sure u can short it but timing has to be precise , otherwise u r screwed.
mkts news are always ahead of the plebeian like us.
about a month ago PM stocks started declining fast and furiously.... that was the sell signal IMO.
these guys do not play to loose and when we see the news it is too late.
i bought randgold only .
somewhat i think it tracks the price of gold relatively better than ABX .
JMO
cheers.
have a great long weekend:encouragement:


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Interesting article about the REAL US deficit.
The downturn wheels are already in motion, just the timing is in doubt.
More printing is only a heart beat away.


http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2012-05-18/federal-deficit-accounting/55179748/1


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Miser said:


> France has gone socialist and Greece is in a coalition.
> The French now want more for nothing and Greeks don't know.
> 
> Sell and short everything esp. Euro.....buy silver and gold.
> ...


4 weeks now since my post and things are pretty much on target.

Markets down about 5%
PM's down only slightly
Euro way down!
US Dollar huge gains.
I have done very well!

Looking for another run up on stocks when QE3 hits. Will watch from the sidelines and short at the appropriate time.
I expect the next round of easing to be less effective and shorter. PM's will rise agains. 
I don't think you'll see 1400 gold again.

US dollar will rise but then I will be shorting when the slide begins.
Maybe a while for that....1-2 years?

As belguy might say "This is the beginning of a huge fiscal change"
There will be ups and downs but the line is down.

GL


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Rather than sell sell sell..............I suggest this.

Buy PM's 

Election in the US is very close, and Ben will do what is adviced.
Que EEEEEEE Threeee......is on it's way!


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## Lucy (Mar 10, 2012)

What's PMs?


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Lucy said:


> What's PMs?


If he means gold, in hindsight, maybe 7 years ago or so would have been a better time to get on for that rollercoaster ride.
Gold's price graph looks parabolic to me right now.

Also, there's this; *

"In his book Basic Economics, Thomas Sowell argued that, in the long-term, gold's high volatility when compared to stocks and bonds, means that gold does not hold its value compared to stocks and bonds:

To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents."

*quoted from wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment

edit: I understand Miser was talking about precious metals in terms of trading, not about holding them for the long term, so I guess in that case volatility could be a good thing if you know what you're doing or if you're lucky, or both.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I was just thinking how interesting it was that, not all that long ago, many pundits were predicting $1.50 gasoline by this summer and, the last that I looked, it was around $1.19 in these parts and falling. And then there was all of the talk that interest rates would be rising long before now. There is no evidence of this happening and the talk now is that Carney may now actually cut interest rates soon.

Why do we listen to pundits and forecasters? They have no better idea about the future than do you or I.

Now, where did you say that the price of gold is heading?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

whether or not to buy gold remains the question of the day
if we are going into deflation and especially if this is about to get very bad very quickly, gold will be a bad place to be
if we get qe3, a far from certain event, it might be the place to be but even then, the deflationary pressures might just suck all that qe down with it
the question the fed is asking is "what good would a qe3 do, aside from maybe stoking inflation ?"
rates are at a 200 year low ..
what good will qe3 actually do ?
i think the fed might be inclined just to sit this one out
the june meeting is going to be big
any hint that qe3 is off the table might kill pm's
the bernank might actually be spending his money over in europe which is really what is killing things at the moment
(future problems aside for the time being)


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

QE3 is a decent prop. considering the up coming election.
If you think the Prez has no say you are dreaming.

Deflation is the one thing they want to avoid, inflation reduces existing debt over time.
Less valued dollars paying off valued debt.
With the US massive deficit/debt how else can they ease their way out of this mess?

I bet on QE3 and inflation but I agree it is a crap shoot.

Gold has out performed any asset class in the last 5 years.
Downside is limited and fiat currencies are looking worse.
Already in Greece they have a run on the banks.
Getting Euros and some buying PM's
There is a memory of WW2 still in some.

How do you handle unemployment?
Job creation programs....print the dough....pay the workers.
Inflation.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Deflation caused by interest rates rising out of control in the US causing debt to be dealt with around the world would be the end of the gold bull market. At this time as long as rates are artificially held down in a big way then there is no fear of gold staying down for long.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

*The ultimate crime in investing is not being wrong, it's staying wrong.*

My opinions are always changing......I let the market dictate what I should do.

If wrong get the hell out and lick your wounds.
If right, take some dough and a have a "top shelf" beverage!


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Anybody smell QE3??
The market is usually a bellweather of what is going to happen.
Gold up.........markets up, on no real news.
Rate cuts are coming.

The people in the know are getting in.


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## jet powder (May 29, 2012)

@ some point the QE might stop.

Collective psychology is impulsive, self generating, self sustaining & self reversing. The Tea party movement @ somepoint could realy gain momentum & the masses wont stand for the bailouts.


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

Lucy said:


> What's PMs?


PMs=Precious Metals - most commonly gold n silver. If there is another round of QE >inflationary expectations which bode well for physical or scrip relating to PMs.

Ps: sorry i din see that PPincer has replied. Anyway im gonna post this anyway. Cheers.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Gold not a good investment for average portfolio:

http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/strategies/theres-no-clear-reason-to-invest-in-gold-1338773912226/

I have a target allocation of 5 per cent of my total portfolio in the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund.

http://funds.rbcgam.com/pdf/fund-pages/monthly/rbf1038_e.pdf


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, the smell of quantitative easing in the morning.......smells like victory. 
The Bernake 


No real news just the hint of more money printing.
Stock market heroin.
They are addicted and can't kick the habit.

Fiat time is closer than I thought.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Sniff sniff sniff.............smells like QE3 to me? 
Ain't a new cruise liner but iceberg is ahead!
Greek vote will be key to what happens in the short term.
Long term is PM's

IMHO

GL


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Belguy said:


> I have a target allocation of 5 per cent of my total portfolio in the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund.
> 
> http://funds.rbcgam.com/pdf/fund-pages/monthly/rbf1038_e.pdf


Belguy if you're into the D series with it's 10 K minimum, then you'd be paying at least $127 per year in MER's.

At say $9.99 per trade that could give you instead 12 trades to buy the top twelve holdings in the first year and lots of leeway for monthly rebalancing or more, unless you just don't want the hassle or the paperwork.
Just saying..

Personally I think I probably hold enough PMs in my index funds, and see no need to separate out that asset class at this point, but for me portfolio size and expenses as a percent are considerations in deciding that. Also PMs seem kinda high right now. .


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

fatcat said:


> whether or not to buy gold remains the question of the day
> if we are going into deflation and especially if this is about to get very bad very quickly, gold will be a bad place to be
> if we get qe3, a far from certain event, it might be the place to be but even then, the deflationary pressures might just suck all that qe down with it
> the question the fed is asking is "what good would a qe3 do, aside from maybe stoking inflation ?"
> ...


I have 10% of my capital in precious metals just in case. Bought it some time ago, when gold was $1175 and silver $20. It helps me sleep better on a bad news day and so far has made a decent return.

If you want some, I doubt you will see a better time to buy than now. Best place I know of to buy it is your local Royal Bank branch.They can order it and get it for you in a couple of days and their prices are reasonable.

Put it away in a safety deposit box until things get back to normal or the whole world goes to hell, whichever comes first.

If you want to speculate on paper that is an entirely different matter. Can't help you there. Given that precious metals are leveraged 100 to 1, and given the ease with which companies go bankrupt today, with no consequences for the perpetrators except to get rich and have dinner with the President of the US (see MF Global and Jon Corzine) all I can say is, be careful.

Re: the inflation vs deflation question. In 2008 it looked like there would be a massive deflation of the bubble blown in the housing market by the big banks in the US. The Fed and government immediately stepped in and began pumping up the money supply and bailing out the big banks. The result has been inflation. Since then other countries have faced crises in which they had a choice of facing the consequences of their inflationary policies and drawing back, or putting the printing press into overdrive. In every case they chose the bailout or printing press. I can't see a deflation in the future but I can see inflation and possibly hyperinflation and currency collapse.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Miser said:


> No real news just the hint of more money printing.





Miser said:


> Long term is PM's


So, the way I see it, gold is thought of as a traditional hedge against the fear of inflation and uncertainty, right?
And if they're all just gonna keep on printing money, wouldn't that already be more or less priced in?

Seems to me that all this is telling me that equity is the place to be and gold has almost had it's time in the sun, and cash and bonds a very bad place to be. (Assuming all this money printing leads to major inflation down the road).


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## Vitalogy80 (Apr 12, 2009)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I have 10% of my capital in precious metals just in case. Bought it some time ago, when gold was $1175 and silver $20. It helps me sleep better on a bad news day and so far has made a decent return.
> 
> If you want some, I doubt you will see a better time to buy than now. Best place I know of to buy it is your local Royal Bank branch.They can order it and get it for you in a couple of days and their prices are reasonable.
> 
> ...


I never understand this...if everything goes good, then stocks go up and should do a lot better than gold or silver. If things in Europe or the US go completely crazy and the world goes crazy and the stock market collapses, you're going to go to your bank and take out a chunk of gold to do what?

If the whole world crashes and the current financial system goes belly up, I think the only currency worth having is guns and bullets, along with maybe food and water, not a chunk of shiny metal that is basically useless.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

It's the mere possibility that everything could go to hell in a handbasket that have many concerned. What a time to be a retired investor!!!

Buy, hold and ?????


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## Vitalogy80 (Apr 12, 2009)

Belguy said:


> It's the mere possibility that everything could go to hell in a handbasket that have many concerned. What a time to be a retired investor!!!
> 
> Buy, hold and ?????


Well if everything goes to hell in a hand basket, no one will have any money, the world will be in chaos and at least the lucky people who are in retirement will have lived a long good life. It's the young ones you should be worried about because it'll all be guns, bullets and war if the world plays out like you think it's going to.


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## Young&Ambitious (Aug 11, 2010)

New portfolio plan: Buy, hold and just in case build an off the grid bunker, with designer decor of course


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## Vitalogy80 (Apr 12, 2009)

Or buy stock in any company that specializes in end of the world scenarios...there must be companies that build bomb shelters and such.

Or maybe just listen to the greatest investor of the last century and be greedy when others are fearful. Hmmm...should I listen to Warren Buffett or Belguy??


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Fellow Investors

This unraveling is not going to happen in a day, month or year.
This event will slowing erode what we used to know.
Guns and bullets may be the best bet, but they are a long way down the road.

Be pro active and think what is a good insurance policy in the short, mid and long term for you.
I know nothing of the future and will never know.
The plan is to prepare for what MAY happen with what indicators you have.

Huge massive debt everywhere and no ability to ever pay it back?
USA(reserve currency) buying their own debt?

Does that make anyone think that the US fiat currency is worth a little bit less?

If this continues, maybe buy what you think is worth something.

I believe PM's are the ticket, it has been for decades.
I may be wrong but this is just my opinion.

No currency has ever lasted unless it was gold/silver or backed by it.

Just sayin'


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I own 10 acres on an island on the west coast. If things go real sour, I could happily live out my days living off the land, so to speak. Hell, I'm thinking of quitting job and doing this anyway. The "rat race" bites...


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Listen to Belguy!! Gold is about to take off again!!!:chuncky::encouragement::smile-new::cool2:


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## Investor72 (Jun 3, 2012)

Mr.Market says he's not feeling depressive yet.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

*Moved from belguys Lost decade Thread....*
This is a different investment climate than past.
The massive debt at all levels of government were not present when valuations of past cycles occurred.
Unemployment at un seen levels, if you use the old recording stats.....way worse.
That is the money needed to fuel the economy.
We never had a massive economy tettering on the brink(Europe) like today.
Housing is a basket case.
In past recoveries ever seen banks fail and needing massive bailouts??
US GDP to debt at historic levels. Unsustainable and getting worse.
Debt ceiling raised and raise, and will be raised again.

It's a whole new ugly world out there.

These are just some of my reasons to tread softly with going long.
I wish all the bulls GL....I believe you will need it, and QE 3,4,5.........

Once again, this is not an overnight scenario.
Guns and bullets are a long way away if ever.
Just my macro slant on how I see this unfolding.

I would appreciate reasons and stats to talk me out of my position.
I don't care if I am right, I want to make or save money.
That is what investing is all about, right!

GL


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

fatcat said:


> whether or not to buy gold remains the question of the day
> if we are going into deflation and especially if this is about to get very bad very quickly, gold will be a bad place to be
> if we get qe3, a far from certain event, it might be the place to be but even then, the deflationary pressures might just suck all that qe down with it
> the question the fed is asking is "what good would a qe3 do, aside from maybe stoking inflation ?"
> ...


Brilliant on the QE3......bang on!
The dough may be off to the Euro Zone......will will see....very soon I think.

Nice fatcat


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Listen to Belguy!! Gold is about to take off again!!!


I believe this is true but it may need to break down first as is custom before it does take off.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

dogcom said:


> Listen to Belguy!! Gold is about to take off again!!!
> 
> 
> I believe this is true but it may need to break down first as is custom before it does take off.



If it falls below 1520/1500 ish or above 1640 we have a move.
Wait and see.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Nothing good out of the Euro zone......what could they do? do a version of QE or twist?
Merkle is staying German and taking care of her own, so no Euro bonds.
Flight to safety is US dollars.
See that happening for a while. 

Soccer is the big highlight.
Interesting that the next two canaries in the coal mine, Spain and Italy reach the finals.
Calm before more storm.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Largest US City Bankruptcy Is Now Official

STOCKTON, CALIFORNIA, FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY COURT PROTECTION

Stockton, we have a problem!

Just a fluke or foreshadowing of things to come????


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Many cities, towns, and municipalities in the state of California are bankrupt - have been bankrupt for more than a couple of years now.
The same story is repeated across Michigan, Alabama, Arizona, Ohio, etc.
The respective state governments have been carrying them until now.
It could be argued that some state governments are bankrupt too, including California and Michigan.
The federal govt. has been carrying them.

There is no risk of large scale bond defaults as long the state and the fed is willing to stand behind the cities and counties.

As for the bankruptcy itself, it has less to do with the financial crisis or Europe, and more to do with stupid city mayors and councillors in the past making stupid deals with the various city unions.
The unions kept blackmailing year after year, and the city officials kept giving in every time.

Stockton, and others, are cities that were looted and bankrupted by their own citizens, not by Europe or the big banks.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Government causes problems. It then offers solutions that make them worse.

Starting to look like possible deflation.....not something I planned for.
Hard to believe with the presses running OT, but a consideration?


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## Young&Ambitious (Aug 11, 2010)

I watched the 4th of July fireworks last night, as I have for the past 3-4 years. Worst ever. Time to sell? :tongue-new:


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Could it be that you were watching the fireworks display in San Diego? Maybe that is why you said that it was "the worst ever"! However, for the 15 seconds that it lasted, I thought that it was pretty spectacular.:very_drunk::excitement::topsy_turvy:


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

One after another, they parade through the business channels, all espousing the same theory.

Governments are going to bail "them" out.........whomever "them" happens to be.

Euro banks, the Chinese, QE3........all coming and positive for the markets, they say.

It is a pretty sad environment when it is taken as a "positive" that everyone concludes economic statistics are so bad governments will have no choice but to intervene.

How long this upside down mentality continues is anyone's guess.........but I doubt it will end well.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Rate cuts, QE, direct bank loans? These are just smoke and mirrors.
All efforts are just rearranging the deck chairs before the ship sinks. 

Please tell me when adding more debt to *YOUR* debt problems would ever help??

"Mr.Banker, I have no way to pay my debt, and never will....what should I do?"
We will solve the problem for you....we will give you a loan!!!

Ain't happening in the micro world why would anyone think it can in the macro world????

Give this a little thought as you enjoy the after party of Canada Day and J4.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

With so much good, positive news out there, I think that some of you people are being far too bearish!! Why don't you get real and join those with a more bullish sentiment!!:very_drunk::very_drunk::very_drunk::very_drunk:


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

The Fiscal Cliff

Just a heads up for all investors.

If the current US government wins the next election they will impose some new laws.


The scheduled increase in the dividend tax rate will go from a high of 15% today to 43.4% on January 1st, 2013. Capital gain taxes are scheduled to rise from the current level of 15% to 23.8% for top income earners. This may turn the current recession into a depression.
I see some selling prior to the election if it looks like the incumbents are leading in the polls.

Food for thought.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

That's not for sure though is it?There just talking about this?If this does happend,where is all the countries private wealth(ie the 1 %,who control 80% of the monies going to flow to?-this would make nearly every company(stable,large cap,corner stone co's) drop the healthy divs and do massive buybacks then?because obviouly all the shareholders would push vote this way?(which would probably spur the economy)what asset class are they going to turn to-real estate/bonds/t bills?any insight?where wealth will tranfer to?

I would'nt count on obama winning,romney is being/getting backed by all capatilist-i just can't see obama winning in this climate.(all be shocked if america won't push for change)just my op.-does romney have the same platform on the divs/taxes ect?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Unfortunately it looks like it will be a very close election, which means both parties will remain intransigent.

It would be better if one side obliterated the other side...........and they could get on with the job without interference.

I think the US should seriously look at a new system of government, because theirs isn't working.

Who would have thought that for the purposes of economics.........a Communist central government would work best? China changes course on their economy in a meeting or two.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

I am A-political......hate them all!

No it is not sure, but scheduled Dem. agenda ..............if they win.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Some choice Americans have though...............

Obama has turned out to be a wet noodle and Romney is looking every bit like the wealthy elite that he is.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Taxation is one way to redistribute the wealth, since it seems to continue to flow to the 1%.

Might not be the best way, but the wealthy don't seem inclined these days to invest their money into job creation. Why bother when they can just hand it to hedge fund managers to invest for them?

Speaking of which..........US mortgages are tax deductible. Is that why Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg took out a mortgage on his home purchase...........for the tax deduction?

There is just something not right about that scenario, in my opinion.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Things just don't look good to me.
I am not a panic guy but I am almost 60 and have never seen this scenario.
Playing the markets since 20 and took investment courses.
Any "good" news is blown up and bad is under played.

Cash is a good thing.......markets have more down side than up.
Macro looks terrible, micro no idea.
Like PM's.........long term.

GL


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## Dibs (May 26, 2011)

sags said:


> Who would have thought that for the purposes of economics.........a Communist central government would work best? China changes course on their economy in a meeting or two.


This was never in question for economics or for any other government policy: an authoritarian state will always have an easier time governing at the expense of public input.


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

Miser said:


> The Fiscal Cliff
> 
> Just a heads up for all investors.
> 
> ...


Define "current US government" and "wins". Do you mean Obama stays as president? Because that is not "the government" - the republicans still have a large majority in the house. All the president can do is sign bills, veto, and start a war. With the current senate seats up this fall, the dems have more seats at risk than the republicans so who knows how that falls.

Regardless of who wins what - they will kick the can down the road as they have been is my bet. Unfortunately it's not politically expedient to be the guy that explains that you have to take short term pain now in order to come out of this dive. It's always better politically to keep enabling the current slide and hope it magically gets better later.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

sags said:


> ...Speaking of which..........US mortgages are tax deductible. Is that why Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg took out a mortgage on his home purchase...........for the tax deduction?
> 
> There is just something not right about that scenario, in my opinion.


So if he'd contributed to a 401K would that be "not right" are it is for a tax deduction?

Or for those in Canada who have used the equity in their house to borrow for an investment - is that "not right"?


Since Facebook *has* hired people, I'm not sure what is the problem. Then too - what was the tax deduction used for?


Cheers


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Regarding Zuckerberg's home purchase and tax deductibility, what was the purchase price - $6M or something?
Given his net worth, I do not see how this is outrageous at all.
In fact, he is being quite frugal.

Compare against some of our Canadian home purchases where many middle class families are buying houses 8x times their annual gross incomes.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

If people are concerned about how to reduce the US debt, and the overall cost of government, perhaps they should take a hard look at tax deductions for those who don't need them. Is that not an "entitlement", similar to payments to other government largess? Entitlements aren't only bestowed upon the poor, and it shouldn't be only the poor who suffer from cutbacks in benefits and services.

Although I don't agree with Republican policy overall.........I do think the Democrats should welcome Republican suggestions on closing tax deductions, tax loopholes, and entitlements to those who don't need them..........before they consider raising taxes in other forms. 

Giving anyone tax breaks they don't need, when increased debt is required to replace the lost revenue seems self defeating.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

The Ponzi scheme is ready to explode.
The Bernake has got his finger on the trigger of the printing press.
IMHO, QE3 is about to begin.

PM's look okay to me. 
Silver is now quite undervalued relative to gold

Buying in on $28 strike. SLV

We are in a wild ride that I cannot believe.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

YES!!!
NFLX dropped like a rock. All violators of the balance sheet through financial trickery WILL get punished. 
Now if only this happens to CRM, I'd be a happy otter.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

I take it, you were short NFLX?  
What a spectacular drop. Nice.

I have shorted CRM since March of this year (via put purchase, deep ITM, delta at 1.00). The stock price at that time was $155. Now it is $125. Nice profit so far. I'd like to see another drop when Aug-16 earnings are announced.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

crm messed with me too many times. I feel like it's a widow maker. Plus a company full of salesman might have more trick up their sleeves than A normal company. I think that is why they are able to maintain their stock price despite so many accounting violations ( in my book I am not legally accusing them)


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)




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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Go inflation. Great for commodities, great for stocks. I'd like to see it hit 3-4% a year, that'll fix those trillions in long term bonds at 2.5%


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

doctrine said:


> Go inflation. Great for commodities, great for stocks. I'd like to see it hit 3-4% a year, that'll fix those trillions in long term bonds at 2.5%


I also think inflation, but let the markets decide. 
The world is printing...QE, Twist, Buy backs, bailouts, lowering interest rates, etc.
Seems to have little effect......wait for a sign.


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