# XFN vs. XEG



## boycapitalist (Feb 11, 2010)

Pitting these two Canadian ETFs head-to-head.

XFN-Canada's banks are solid. The insurance component is not as strong but is still not bad. 

XEG-As most economies are recovering, energy consumption will go up. High gas prices will also likely result in extra profit here.

How do you feel about these two? Any Canadian ETFs you would throw into the mix?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

How about XIU and just cover the whole market.


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

I really like ZQQ which tracks the Nasdaq. It is 20% Apple and 5% Google which should be pretty great growth stocks.


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## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

dogcom said:


> How about XIU and just cover the whole market.


I prefer stock picking or at least sector picking rather than betting on the TSX.

I think the CDN banks have limited upside although there will be a nice pop for some of banks when they raise their dividends. 

I bought some RBC when it went down, will hold it until a dividend is raised. I also own BMO, TD, Suncor, and Teck Resources.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

XMA as a play on the emerging markets theme.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Seeing as Apple and Google are already some of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the US, how much room, realistically, is there for growth? I don't think Apple is going to triple again from here. And if Mr Blackturtleneck kicks the bucket, I'd hate to be owning any shares, myself.


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## boycapitalist (Feb 11, 2010)

Belguy said:


> XMA as a play on the emerging markets theme.


I've owned XMA for just under a year now and it's returned just shy of 30%. Do you really think it's going to keep growing?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

> Seeing as Apple and Google are already some of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the US, how much room, realistically, is there for growth? I don't think Apple is going to triple again from here. And if Mr Blackturtleneck kicks the bucket, I'd hate to be owning any shares, myself.


 i am a longtime apple user and fan but i have to say that i think the time to short apple has arrived ...

they are about to face intense competition in the tablet market, apple tv still hasn't caught on and in the phone market they have a new and very good windows phone, android is coming on like a freight train, hp is getting ready to release a new webos and a slew of tablets, blackberry has the playbook

almost all of these will come in at better price points than apple and outshine the iphone in head to head comparison

they say they won't even release a 7" tablet which i think is a big mistake (unless they are lying which is very possible)

plus, i follow apple pretty closely and i don't see where their next killer product comes from ....

unless they have something up their sleeve i think they have peaked for the time being


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

fatcat said:


> i am a longtime apple user and fan but i have to say that i think the time to short apple has arrived ...
> 
> they are about to face intense competition in the tablet market, apple tv still hasn't caught on and in the phone market they have a new and very good windows phone, android is coming on like a freight train, hp is getting ready to release a new webos and a slew of tablets, blackberry has the playbook
> 
> ...


I dont mean to be contrary but I totally disagree with this analysis. 

1) sure they are about to face competition in the tablet market but so what? They faced a ton of competition in the MP3 player market after brining out the iPod and it made no difference at all. The iPad now pretty much owns the market. Apple has shown over and over and over that cheaper competitors with inferior products are meaningless in terms of Apples market share.

2) I agree their iPhone dominance is less secure but brand loyalty (of which they have TONS in phones goes a long long way). I dont see Android taking over iPhone simply because it is so fragmented. There are to many phones and software combos. Think of it as Windows vs Mac all over again. Sure overall windows/android will have a bigger market share but the niche market for apple products is not likely to shrink. 

3) I would bet almost anything they put out a 7" iPad. Jobs is famous for saying they would never do something even though that very thing is currently being developed. 

4) As for their next big product, I agree there I also dont really see where it will be but that is pretty meaningless. Did you see the iPod, iPhone or iPad coming? I sure didnt.

5) Nearly every analyst on earth is predicting Apple hits 400+ in 2011.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

In response to point 5, if everyone believed that AAPL was worth $400 in six months, it would already be worth $400 now, less 6 months of interest. That it is not means that not everyone buys the story.


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

andrewf said:


> In response to point 5, if everyone believed that AAPL was worth $400 in six months, it would already be worth $400 now, less 6 months of interest. That it is not means that not everyone buys the story.


Perhaps I was overstating by saying everyone but the reason I made it point 5 was an acknowledgement that it was my weakest point. I was just pointing out that many analysts see growth in Apple.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Dunno... Android seems like a mortal threat to Apple to me. Apple products are ridiculously overpriced. Android is already very good, and only getting better. Are people will to pay 30, 40, 50% more for the Apple product, which is in some ways inferior? There are the Mac geeks, but beyond this core, I question the brand loyalty. Apple may soon face the problem RIM does, with ever contracting margins. Apple is very good at being first to market. The did very well with computers until IBM/Microsoft/Intel ate their lunch and forced them to the brink of bankruptcy. They owned the music player/sales business for a while, but that niche is under attack and their market share is dropping. They were beaten to market in books and TV by other players. Android with its free apps, high customizability, wide variety of price points and features and integration with very popular google applications will be very challenging for Apple going forward.

It's a fascinating company, but realize that, to an extent, it's a bunch of hype. And hype has a habit of evapourating.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

i long ago swore off the windows/mac debates but what the hell, let's give it a go .... 


> 1) sure they are about to face competition in the tablet market but so what? They faced a ton of competition in the MP3 player market after brining out the iPod and it made no difference at all. The iPad now pretty much owns the market. Apple has shown over and over and over that cheaper competitors with inferior products are meaningless in terms of Apples market share.


i owned and ipad and returned it because it was too big and too heavy, i am buying a 7" inch tablet from archos which runs android 2.2 and weighs only 300 grams and cost me $274 ... if apple doesn't get into the 7" market, they are in trouble 7" tablets will become the de-facto ebook readers, imo, .... the blackberry from what i have seen looks really terrific, fast and stable and does amazing multitasking, has plebty of ports and plays everything .....i agree that jobs may well be lying and they may well have a killer super hi-res 7" coming up that will be the e-book reader killer, this is very possible and would support you belief that they will go to 400


> 2) I agree their iPhone dominance is less secure but brand loyalty (of which they have TONS in phones goes a long long way). I dont see Android taking over iPhone simply because it is so fragmented. There are to many phones and software combos. Think of it as Windows vs Mac all over again. Sure overall windows/android will have a bigger market share but the niche market for apple products is not likely to shrink.


android is gaining phone share like crazy, it's just nuts how fast android phones are moving, they are about to come with version 3.0 very soon, they support flash and are much more open and more affordable ... i just bough a palm-pre which has web-os which i think is a better phone than the iphone so i think the iphone will face a lot of intense competition next year and much of the iphone's shortcomings (true multitasking) will be apparent


> 3) I would bet almost anything they put out a 7" iPad. Jobs is famous for saying they would never do something even though that very thing is currently being developed.


i agree, he's not a fool, he could be lying thru his teeth, i wonder if they will come up with a 7" with the same hi-def display as on the iphone which would make ebooks very good to read ... if they don't produce a 7", they are in big trouble because i personally believe that the 7" which actually outsell larger tablets in the long run


> 4) As for their next big product, I agree there I also dont really see where it will be but that is pretty meaningless. Did you see the iPod, iPhone or iPad coming? I sure didnt.


good point, and this is why i wouldn't short them (other braver people might)because they are incredibly smart ... it's worth keeping in mind that at some point, just about 100% of all companies run out of gas, you can't get on base every time you go to the plate ... the old saying "nobody ever got in trouble recommending ibm" applies to apple as well (though we know what happened to ibm)



> 5) Nearly every analyst on earth is predicting Apple hits 400+ in 2011.


that's the weakest of all your arguments, as far as i can tell "analysts" are about as good as the market itself and no better ... didn't cramer issue a buy recommend on lehman brothers a week before the crash ? 


*added a few hours later:* i just read this at apple insider, now we know for certain that is impossible to lose money buying apple stock 


> Prominent investment firm Goldman Sachs resumed its coverage of Apple stock on Monday, kicking things off with a 12-month price target of $430 and a prediction that the company's gross margins have bottomed.
> 
> The 59-page report sent to investors on Monday calls the platform-centric business model of Apple the company's "secret sauce." It's that approach, analyst Bill Shope with Goldman Sachs argued, that has enabled Apple to quickly gain market share in the phone and tablet markets with the iPhone and iPad, respectively.


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## boycapitalist (Feb 11, 2010)

While we've sort of drifted, I'm enjoying this debate alot so please add anything you're thinking.

For anyone that's interested, The Globe and Mail Report on Business had an interesting article today called Investors light up energy sector:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/investors-light-up-energy-sector/article1834700/


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1834700/


good article

it's points out the obvious, i should have bought ZJO instead of CLO a couple of months ago CLO has been good but ZJO which is now flying pretty high would have probably have been better

so the juniors are the place to be ? 

when in the cycle do the seniors start to look attractive again ?


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

I dont want this to devolve into a silly mac vs PC debate since I have no horse in the race. The only apple product I own is an iPhone. It just seems to me that they have a pretty long history now (6 years or so) of setting the market. It's one thing to create a market, dominate it for a couple years, and then lose market share to late comers and another thing to be the late comer. 

Sure apple will not always be the gorilla in the room. But I dont think the are going to be crashing in the near future. Of course my opinion is just that, and opinion. I have no more information than anyone else.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

There's market share, and there's the ability to keep your margins. I'm sure Apple can keep a good chunk of the market. But their margins? Apple is presently very profitable. Will that persist? They'd have to perfect cold fusion for their stock to continue rising like it has.


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