# Your Views and thoughts on the Market



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

New bull market straight up from here?

Cyclical bull inside a secular bear market?

My view is we are probably going to continue to see the market go higher as the sheep pile in. This is not a bull market but instead people climbing on board to get a piece of the action. Many are buying with a mind to dump as soon as the market turns down far enough to get the train rolling. I also think people are far to bullish to soon and we should at least see a good hard correction to shake them up before a bull cycle can start.

The market also doesn't appear cheap enough and dividends high enough to start a new powerful lasting bull market.


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## Rickson9 (Apr 9, 2009)

My thoughts are that if I think about the market I'm wasting my time. Sheep think about the market.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Do you really think that way rickson9? If you were in the markets last year no matter how you invested in the market you would have had your *** kicked.


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## high octane (Jul 21, 2009)

I agree with you that it's all momentum and herd behavior

I hope so anyways because I'm new and missed this rally. I'm hoping to buy in bit by bit if the market falls as quick and sell bit by bit if it climbs fast again

Maybe I'm just a dumb sheep. I'd rather see a gradual increase and just buy and forget, but I'm not comfortable with that right now


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## Assetologist (Apr 19, 2009)

My thoughts are that neither myself nor anybody else knows what the market will do over the next few weeks, months or years, therefore, I am happy to sit and collect dividends.

I wouldn't mind seeing another huge market drop which would provide another opportunity to invest the dividends along with additional money.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Knowing what the market will do in the short term is very tough to know but I think it is important to keep up with the longer term trends. Examples would be owning the US index over the last 10 years or the Japenese index since 1989. Another would be falling asleep and collecting dividends in what you thought were good US bank stocks.

Paying attention to interest rates and where we are in the business cycle can also sway your thoughts on the market and the stocks you own. Also look at the huge debt and deficit the US must cover every year and what might happen if they are unable to get the funds they require.

So I don't think your a dumb sheep high octane with a strategy to enter the market bit by bit. In fact not paying any attention to the market can make you like the dumb sheep who just held on last year while thier great companies like GE or US bank stocks came crumbling down.


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## Brad911 (Apr 19, 2009)

I think the paint is already on the wall and the economic landscape is pretty clear: flat

You have far too many important economic indicators pointing to a prolonged period of contraction regardless of the amount of stimulus thrown at this problem. 

It's not about the money; it's all about the debt.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

At best....flat.

P/E are too high.

Could be a Stimulus bubble.


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## Bullseye (Apr 5, 2009)

Impossible to know, but I think the markets likely overshot during the crash, and are now just coming back to a reasonable level, where they will fluctuate around.

I took on a bunch of debt early this year to buy stocks, made a killing with it, and am now still holding about half that. I'm willing to keep holding what I have until a) it drops back to breakeven, or b) the interest rate on my borrowings goes up higher than my dividend rate on my holdings. All I have to lose up till either of those points is the gains I've made to date. No risk of owing more than I hold.


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## moneygardener (Apr 3, 2009)

Nobody knows where the market is going, who cares, blah blah blah, normal preface everyone uses....

now to my juicy opinions

I'm quite surprised that the market has risen as much as it has as fast as it has. So surprised that I essentially see zero stocks worth buying anymore. That being said, I think we overshot to the down side in a huge way. I've been saying for a while that I don't think there is any chance whatsoever of us revisiting the March lows. There was just too much uncertainty at that time that has been cleared up since, specifically US bank vital signs.

That being said I think the market is closer to a fair valuation now than it was on March 9, 2009. Hindsight is 20/20.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Brad911 is a value investor and he says it is all about the debt. I happen to agree with that even though value stocks were stomped on last year, much to my surprise, along with everything else.

I think besides gold going up because of the lack of confidence in fiat currencies, value investing will make a come back. I personally don't like waiting for the value to come to light so I like playing the ups and downs a little more. But if you want to buy and hold in this market then you should be buying strong companies with little debt ready to ride out any storms.


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## mogul777 (Jun 2, 2009)

Dog, the main reason "value" companies were "stomped" last year is the fact that financials make up a large percentage of this category. That recovery is already largely behind us as you can see the 52-week highs are all pretty close to current levels. 

Buying quality value is key to limit risk, but of course that also limits returns in the high beta recovery phase... like the one we're in now and have been since March. 

Gold will rise as the recovery (read inflation and risk appetite) pushes down the low yielding currencies including the USD (which gold is conveniently priced in). Gold will correct with the market, then diverge as the flight to safety fades once again.


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## tojo (Apr 20, 2009)

As much as the market factors in doomsday to the downside, it is also efficient in predicting recoveries. This is what's happening now. Bad news is till around us, but the market will lead the recovery. 

It is however, human nature to establish a point of reference - and many of us are using low points back in March as the yardstick for when we should or should have bought. Well in hindsight, let just say that it was an opportunity of a lifetime, and if you didn't take action then, the chances of hitting those lows again will be very slim. You've probably heard the saying "all boats rise with the tide". At this stage there are still good opportunities as the tides rises. Proceed with caution, but don't let that point of reference paralyze you .


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## moneygardener (Apr 3, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Brad911 is a value investor and he says it is all about the debt. I happen to agree with that even though value stocks were stomped on last year, much to my surprise, along with everything else.
> 
> I think besides gold going up because of the lack of confidence in fiat currencies, value investing will make a come back. I personally don't like waiting for the value to come to light so I like playing the ups and downs a little more. But if you want to buy and hold in this market then you should be buying strong companies with little debt ready to ride out any storms.


Can't find a link, but I just saw a story on Bloomberg about how companies with high debt levels have outperformed over the past few months.


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## NorthernAlex (Jul 26, 2009)

I am a new investor in stocks and not experienced at all, but just looking at my RY share now is somewhat shocking to me (got in April for appox. 38$). 

The all time high of RY was mid 2007 at 60$ or so... and now mid/end recession we are at nearly 52$ gives me the feeling that RY is overpriced. There is not much air to aim higher- but lots of potential to go down. 

I am totally uncertain if I should sell (as I said, don;t see more potential) and bank in the nearly 30% gain

or

keep it for the dividend.

Anyhow, taking this as an example makes me a bit nervous (as I said first time stock investor) as I have some more cash getting available by the end of this week I am absolutely uncertain what to do with it.


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## tojo (Apr 20, 2009)

NorthernAlex said:


> I am a new investor in stocks and not experienced at all, but just looking at my RY share now is somewhat shocking to me (got in April for appox. 38$).
> 
> The all time high of RY was mid 2007 at 60$ or so... and now mid/end recession we are at nearly 52$ gives me the feeling that RY is overpriced. There is not much air to aim higher- but lots of potential to go down.
> 
> ...


Congratulations on getting RY at $38. It was a good move on your part...Canadian Banks are the envy of the world, and RY is one of the best. Yes, banks are no longer cheap and I would be hesitant to add more for the time being, given some headwind with growing loan losses this year and 2010...but with the improving economy, steep yield curves and recent securities underwriting activities, banks should do well. I would hang on to RY for the long run, and add to banks when we experience another dip. Perhaps keep new funds for some of the laggards in the current upturn (utilities, telecoms etc.)...as always, due diligence is in order - do your research!


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Q3 earnings may give us more insight as to how the market will proceed. Q2 was ok at best....but perhaps b/c expectations were so low, and perhaps b/c companies shed thousands of jobs and even more in expenses.

Also curious to see what is revealed if the Fed is audited.
http://news.goldseek.com/LewRockwell/1249244807.php

As an aside, when the HST is added to our groceries, gas etc....does that count towards the govt released inflation #'s?


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Moneygardener I would think the companies with the most debt would do well because they are pricing in the better chance that they will survive rather then pricing in thier demise. This however is not a sustainable price rise unless the debt burden is taken down. The strong companies without all that debt were probably already priced to survive.


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## mogul777 (Jun 2, 2009)

tojo said:


> Congratulations on getting RY at $38. It was a good move on your part...Canadian Banks are the envy of the world, and RY is one of the best. Yes, banks are no longer cheap and I would be hesitant to add more for the time being, given some headwind with growing loan losses this year and 2010...but with the improving economy, steep yield curves and recent securities underwriting activities, banks should do well. I would hang on to RY for the long run, and add to banks when we experience another dip. Perhaps keep new funds for some of the laggards in the current upturn (utilities, telecoms etc.)...as always, due diligence is in order - do your research!



I'm guessing you haven't looked at the numbers for the utilities and telecoms recently. I just recently finished a stock screen for Canadian equity and yikes these things are crap, though as the steady eddies they should hold up ok. No bank stocks even made the radar screen. DD would certainly be in order, but for the newbie poster I'd hold as financials are still market darlings at this point. Ridiculously priced or not you don't argue with momentum since as the saying goes it will run you over. 

Before anyone gets too excited it's worth pointing out the mammoth change in reporting that was rolled out not that long ago to greatly sweeten the numbers. Not to mention the pathetically low earnings estimates that even most pieces of crap can exceed to the joy of the idiot investor. In regards to that above momentum it's also worth noting the overpopulation of idiot investors.


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## moneygardener (Apr 3, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Moneygardener I would think the companies with the most debt would do well because they are pricing in the better chance that they will survive rather then pricing in thier demise. This however is not a sustainable price rise unless the debt burden is taken down. The strong companies without all that debt were probably already priced to survive.


Just pointing out that simple tenets like, 'invest in companies with low debt levels' are not a symptom of the time right now, theoretically this is true all the time and everyone knows this. That being said debt is necessary to run a business and a greater amount of debt is necessary to run businesses in certain sectors. Investing like a sheep is never a good strategy. The credit crisis did not and will not kill the usefullness of debt forever. Everything runs in cycles....


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## mogul777 (Jun 2, 2009)

moneygardener said:


> Just pointing out that simple tenets like, 'invest in companies with low debt levels' are not a symptom of the time right now, theoretically this is true all the time and everyone knows this. That being said debt is necessary to run a business and a greater amount of debt is necessary to run businesses in certain sectors. Investing like a sheep is never a good strategy. The credit crisis did not and will not kill the usefullness of debt forever. Everything runs in cycles....


"everyone knows this"?? Try go out on the street and ask people and see how many out of 100 actually do. My guess would be 3-5. 

Debt is necessary to run a business? That is a load of crap. Spending money is necessary to build a business, the likelihood of requiring debt to grow is high. Debt as a necessity is something that shows you as a raw rookie in both business and investing. Live and learn I guess.

Regarding Dog's post I already addressed this in an earlier post... find the part about high beta and recovery.


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## Brad911 (Apr 19, 2009)

mogul777 said:


> ...Debt as a necessity is something that shows you as a raw rookie in both business and investing....


This is an important point that a few of my clients have overlooked when starting up their businesses and then running into problems in the future. It's not the debt that's important; it's the cashflow. Debt should be a decision that is carefully weighed for any business because of its effects on operating cashflow. You have to pay it back at some point and if you're taking on too much debt (or any at all) at the wrong time the decision is equally as poor as overdiversifying your product mix or hiring the wrong people to do the job.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Mogul and brad911 put it better then I was able to say. And I think the value they speak of will be the new way or the in way to invest once this bear market is over.

Having low quality issues flying high, China forcing a bubble with forced lending to just about anyone, China is also finishing its stockpiling and I hear the Baltic Dry index had its worst week since October. I also hear insiders are dumping stock into this rally. 

It sounds like investors are being led in with momentum and technical triggers and nothing else. It could be a bad fall for those who hang on again this year.


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Mogul and brad911 put it better then I was able to say.
> .
> 
> . It could be a bad fall for those who hang on again this year.


Brad and Mogul know nothing more than the rest of us , nor do you , and it could be a very good year for those who got in a few months ago and hang on (I'm betting on it).

You know nothing so why speculate?

I am way up because I bought at lows I do not think we will see again , (TCK at $4.50 anyone?) , and a lot of others.

Nay sayers will always be naysayers , optimists will make money.

The pessimists nare not only pessimistic , they are very jealous.


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## Rickson9 (Apr 9, 2009)

furgy said:


> Brad and Mogul know nothing more than the rest of us , nor do you , and it could be a very good year for those who got in a few months ago and hang on (I'm betting on it).
> 
> You know nothing so why speculate?
> 
> ...


I agree. 

Nobody knows. Discussing unknowable data is a waste of time better spent making money. 

Having said that, 95% of individuals like discussing the unknowable and thus don't make much money. No offense and this is nothing personal, but unfortunately true... oh how many summer BBQs have I been to where this kind of chatter happens...please pass me another beer please I need to get drunk faster...


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## mogul777 (Jun 2, 2009)

furgy said:


> Brad and Mogul know nothing more than the rest of us , nor do you , and it could be a very good year for those who got in a few months ago and hang on (I'm betting on it).
> 
> You know nothing so why speculate?
> 
> ...


On the contrary furgy knowing the basics will certainly aid in making money both in business and here in investing. Now do I or anyone else know when the markets will turn or how much the markets will run when they do? Not a chance. Regardless what happens from here it will be a good year for anyone that bought most anything in March.


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

mogul777 said:


> On the contrary furgy knowing the basics will certainly aid in making money both in business and here in investing. .


If by basics you mean the ability to read and perform simple math , then I agree.

Making statements like "It could be a bad fall for those who hang on again this year" , just makes no sense and is pure pessimistic speculation because , as I said , it could just as easily be a very good time for those who hang on again , just depends on each situation.


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## mogul777 (Jun 2, 2009)

furgy said:


> If by basics you mean the ability to read and perform simple math , then I agree.
> 
> Making statements like "It could be a bad fall for those who hang on again this year" , just makes no sense and is pure pessimistic speculation because , as I said , it could just as easily be a very good time for those who hang on again , just depends on each situation.


Agree with the last part. However, don't get too caught up in the whole pessimist vs optimist blather since we all know what happened to those sporting the rose-coloured glasses several months ago. Reversion to the mean tends to silence the loudmouths on both sides.  Dog just likes to speculate and post about it rather than something more concrete...

Anyhow I actually mean more than just the basics, but that would be the place to start. What I'm getting at here are these posters that come in like they are experts, but their posts expose them as being ignorant of even the basic concepts of investing or business. Learn and then post, or admit you're a novice and ask rather than answer when you have no clue. Not to pick on "debt guy" above but that is a prime example. Knowing the difference between debt and expenses... yeah pretty basic stuff.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Mogul is right I like to speculate because I find it fun to do. I said the fall because that is usually the time for the sell offs to happen. But will I short the market? No that would be dangerous, instead I will hold short term bonds and income funds. 

But I believe you speculate as well furgy if all you do is say the market will go up and I don't want to hear or think about anything else. I pointed out stuff that could cause the market to fall but I didn't hear any reason from you why it should rise. You also said you bought at the bottom in March which is good. But you could also have bought at the top last year since price doesn't seem to matter because we can't be negative or hold an opposing view. 

Maybe earnings beating analyst expectations could be a reason to rise even though some of it has been earnings before the bad stuff. You could also point out that unemployment has stopped rising or so they say. Also inventories are being replenished. There is also lots of sideline money to suck into this market. They are really pumping the green shoots of every kind which means the good and even better news is now out, so where do we go from here.


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## resource investor (Aug 9, 2009)

Hi Dogcom.

I think the stock market (a leading indicator) is trying to tell us that hyper-inflation is around the corner. I have come to the conclusion from reading what others say that in a hyper-inflationary environment all stocks will go up (all things that are real and have real businesses).

I think the best stock picking strategy is to buy dividend paying companies with growing earnings and sales trading at attractive multiples while short selling (or avoiding) non-dividend paying companies with declining margins and earnings. How can you go wrong given the fullness of time with this strategy if you know what you are doing?


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## FinancialJungle (Apr 22, 2009)

resource investor said:


> I think the best stock picking strategy is to buy dividend paying companies with growing earnings and sales trading at attractive multiples while short selling (or avoiding) non-dividend paying companies with declining margins and earnings. How can you go wrong given the fullness of time with this strategy if you know what you are doing?


I can attest to the dividend investing strategy. Yeah, I did suffer a few dividend cuts, but they're few and far between. And I think the worst is already behind us. 

Despite the setbacks, in Dec 2007, dividends were covering 52% of our annual expenses. In Dec 2008, 62%. Today, 70%, and we still have 5 months left in 2009. Don't you love watching this ratio go up? Isn't this much more fun and productive than speculating market directions? I think so.

In fact, the ratio accelerated during the bear market. It's the best time to be accummulating these little passive cows.

I'm not convinced on shorting though...


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

dogcom said:


> But I believe you speculate as well furgy if all you do is say the market will go up and I don't want to hear or think about anything else. I pointed out stuff that could cause the market to fall but I didn't hear any reason from you why it should rise. You also said you bought at the bottom in March which is good. But you could also have bought at the top last year since price doesn't seem to matter because we can't be negative or hold an opposing view.
> 
> .


I do speculate , but I also take profits when I have the chance , something I learned from this last crash.
I'm out of teck with a huge profit , I think it will go higher but I'm not holding on forever.
The market will continue to rise because people want it to , there is no other place to make great returns like the stock market so people will keep putting money into it , it may seem a little simplistic to some , but the whole idea that people constantly want more is a very simple concept , one that has never changed since the beginnings of commerce.
Sure there will be ups and downs , but in the end it is always up. 
Anyone who didn't buy at the amazing lows a few months ago was just too pessimistic and missed out on some huge returns , just one result of being overly pessimistic.
I never said you couldn't be negative or hold an opposing view , you obviously do , so don't git yer panties in a wad.
You can be as negative as you like , it just won't make you any money , I'm just stating the obvious.
I wouldn't be in the market if I wasn't optimistic about making money , I can't see any reason why anyone would.
The glass is 1/2 full.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I bought and held gold stocks 2 weeks before the bottom in November of last year. I also held stock funds until end of June before selling into short term bonds. At the moment I don't have any equity funds, except gold stock funds at the moment, but I am considering moving money in to ride this momentum but will be quick to get out as I will only be riding a wave. 

I have been cautious since June of 2007 and will continue to be until I see more evidence that we are in a bull cycle.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

In the past week I sold some gold stocks and will be getting back in over the next couple of weeks as the pog falls a bit more.

I also bought some hjd.to this week to short china.


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## canadianbanks (Jun 5, 2009)

What we have now is a bear rally topping out. In my opinion a giant selloff will ensue in the next few weeks.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

$1600 Gold by 2011 will be shorting China so he must think they are blowing up a bubble there and it does look that way. Although I would not short it because momentum is a powerful thing.

Canadianbanks what reasons do you give as to why we should be starting the great selloff in the next few weeks?

Resourse investor you believe that hyper-inflation is just around the corner due to the money printing. I am not so sure about that happening in the next few years. All that money right now is being saved, being used to pay down debt, unemployment is high, banks are raising there reserves and will only lend to higher quality borrowers. There is lots of spare capacity and China has stocked up.


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## resource investor (Aug 9, 2009)

Dogcom. I'm no economist but I just think that hyperinflation is a currency event and the world's goto currency (the US Dollar) is about to self-destruct.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Only problem is resource investor what currency will the world use at this time. The Euro isn't any better and there is not enough gold around to replace the US dollar.


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## resource investor (Aug 9, 2009)

Dogcom. I agree I think that all paper currencies will fall leaving only things with real value like precious metals. Gold is going much higher as a result imho.


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

resource investor said:


> Dogcom. I agree I think that all paper currencies will fall leaving only things with real value like precious metals. Gold is going much higher as a result imho.


That seems like a very _doom/gloom/end of the world/sky is falling _hypothesis to me.

The world as we know it _will_ come to an end , but I don't think that time is anywhere near yet.

You guys crack me up , you live through one little recession , lose a few bucks and the world is ending.

I know people who lived through the great depression and worse , and just got on with life and maintained a better attitude , they came through it just fine.

According to your hypothesis , the great depression should never have happened , because after all , our currency was backed by gold at the time , and gold can never fail , only apparently it did , but this time around it will be different?


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## resource investor (Aug 9, 2009)

Furgy Quote: "That seems like a very doom/gloom/end of the world/sky is falling hypothesis to me. The world as we know it will come to an end , but I don't think that time is anywhere near yet. You guys crack me up , you live through one little recession , lose a few bucks and the world is ending."

You don't have to believe the financial system is coming to an end to believe the US Dollar will lose value against gold. And who said gold never fails and this means the end of the financial world. You made up all these things on your little tantrum.


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

resource investor said:


> Furgy Quote: "That seems like a very doom/gloom/end of the world/sky is falling hypothesis to me. The world as we know it will come to an end , but I don't think that time is anywhere near yet. You guys crack me up , you live through one little recession , lose a few bucks and the world is ending."
> 
> You don't have to believe the financial system is coming to an end to believe the US Dollar will lose value against gold. And who said gold never fails and this means the end of the financial world. You made up all these things on your little tantrum.


Hmmmm..."all paper currencies will fall" does not sound the same as "the US Dollar will lose value against gold".

Which is it? You said it , now you're trying to change your words.

Trying to change your words and Grasping at straws because I laughed at your doom and gloom scenario won't help you cause any , I didn't mean any harm by it anyway , if you can't attend a public forum without getting offended , don't take it out on me by calling it a tantrum.

Do you interpret all posts here that question your views as "tantrums".

And how about "leaving only things with real value like precious metals" , explain to me why precious metals have "real" value as opposed to currencies that are sanctioned the world over and have been in use for hundred of years.
I'd like to see you go and buy something at Wal Mart and pay with gold.

Get your stories and facts straight and re-read your old posts before you respond.

I usually try to avoid a battle of wits with an unarmed opponent , but in your case I'll make an exception , seeing as I am having a "Tantrum".


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Worth the read:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

Along the lines of what furgy had stated. (not that the world itself will come to an end....but perhaps the economic world as we know it will...or at least be revised to move forwards)


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Furgy you said you guys crack me up. If you are reffering to me I never said that this is the end of the world and its currencies.

I said, "Only problem is resource investor what currency will the world use at this time. The Euro isn't any better and there is not enough gold around to replace the US dollar".

I also argued with resource investor that I didn't think hyper-inflation is around the corner and I gave the reasons why. He was fine to me in his reply even though I argued against him. 

On gold I believe it is something everyone wants to own every 30 or 40 years when we go through a rough patch like the 1930's and the 1970's. Also at the moment with all the money printing and quantative easing it is making investors nervous and directing them to gold. I personally don't see the velocity in money at this moment to cause hyper-inflation but the threat is out there if money creation goes to far and the ball does start rolling to the point the Fed can't contain it. Also China is buying gold as part of its strategy to diversify away from the US dollar.


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## resource investor (Aug 9, 2009)

Furgy

There you go on another tantrum lol. Gold is a currency with no debts attached it. So relative to gold, I believe that paper currencies LIKE THE US DOLLAR will fall against it.


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## rbabi18 (Aug 11, 2009)

dogcom said:


> New bull market straight up from here?
> 
> Cyclical bull inside a secular bear market?


I think that is the best way to put it. We may soon have a full on bull market however as soon as some of the government money trickles down (whether you agree with it in the first place or not).


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## mogul777 (Jun 2, 2009)

resource investor said:


> Furgy
> 
> There you go on another tantrum lol. Gold is a currency with no debts attached it. So relative to gold, I believe that paper currencies LIKE THE US DOLLAR will fall against it.


Looks like every forum has one, lol.


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## MoneyEnergy (Apr 5, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Knowing what the market will do in the short term is very tough to know but I think it is important to keep up with the longer term trends. Examples would be owning the US index over the last 10 years or the Japenese index since 1989. Another would be falling asleep and collecting dividends in what you thought were good US bank stocks.


I'd have to agree. Just take a middle road; stay abreast of general news relating to your companies and the broad market; don't necessarily be checking everyday, though. In the past I've gone through periods of just over a year without checking in -- and that was definitely too long. Lots of changes, regulations, mergers, etc. can happen in that time.


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

resource investor said:


> Furgy
> 
> There you go on another tantrum lol. Gold is a currency with no debts attached it. So relative to gold, I believe that paper currencies LIKE THE US DOLLAR will fall against it.


No , you said "all paper currencies will fall leaving only things with real value like precious metals" , but if you want to change your story now that's OK with me.

And gold is not a currency by default unless it is minted into a currency , it is a store of value like any other commodity , like I said , go to Walmart and try to buy something with raw gold , you can't , because it is not a recognised currency.

Then you never answered why you think gold has "real value".

Now your going on about some tantrum fixation of yours to cover up the fact that you have no answer.

If you don't want to answer or admit to what you said and keep babbling on about tantrums , that's fine , but it gives the impression that your mouth is in gear and your mind is still in neutral.

Your version of a tantrum perhaps?

Allthough you call youself Resource investor , you don't seem very resouceful.

LOL


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

If you walked into most Walmart's with any other currency then the country you are in they probably couldn't help you. That also applies to gold because they are not set up to deal with it. Gold is money because the world recognizes it as so and of course it is always better to have it in coins.

On another subject here is an article on the hocus pocus of earnings. http://seekingalpha.com/article/156207-earnings-are-imaginary

Of course the message is you cannot trust anyone and everyone is full of crap no matter what we think. This is why it is so hard to make money on any stock or company without a huge amount of effort. When I mentioned brad911 he makes that huge effort and spends alot of time figuring it out trying to cut the crap.

That is why I think you should be very careful here and protect what you have which doesn't include short selling unless you know what you are doing.
I believe we are in a secular bear market with the possibility that central banks do manage to ignite hyper-inflation from the deflation we are now trying to avoid.

In other words buy, hold and forget is not in the cards at this time and probably for a number of years to come.


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

dogcom said:


> If you walked into most Walmart's with any other currency then the country you are in they probably couldn't help you. That also applies to gold because they are not set up to deal with it. ..


That is because gold is not a currency , gold in the form of coins is a currency , just as copper , silver or nickel etc. are a currency when minted as currency.

Walmart is set up to deal with currencies , not commodities , a Canadian Walmart will take American currecy , even EU currency , because it is a recognised currency.

Gold is a store of value that is usually easily converted into most currencies , but not always , first you have to find someone willing to buy the gold with the currency you desire.

Would you buy gold on the street with your Canadian currency without first verifying the purity?

I think not.

Do you even know how to verify the purity of gold?, Again , I think not.

And yes , buy and hold is temporarily dead.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Your right furgy if I buy gold it will be in coins because I feel it is most usefull to own it that way. Walmart may take it from you but I don't think you would recieve the value the coin is worth. But do you really think they would except a EU currency in Canada or would they tell you to go exchange it first.

I also have one question. If gold is not money then why do central banks hold it in reserves?


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

There's nothing wrong with buy and hold, especially gold.

Central banks hold it in reserves because holding stocks/real estate would be just silly 

Gold coins are fine for liquidity but you'll be paying a premium for them. You'll get more bang for your buck with the bars but I'd go with coins as well.


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## MoneyEnergy (Apr 5, 2009)

Gold represents a constant store of value. It has practical uses in production, and for this reason is a real asset. It is malleable, conducts electricity, and has other industrial uses I'm not familiar with. 

World reserves hold gold for the same reason large institutional investors and individuals do: as a hedge and form of "insurance" against fiat currency fluctuations. While gold is not currently in broad-based use as currency, it can be. It was until 1971. (In fact, actually, it is being used as currency through companies like GoldMoney right now).


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Will the Q3 earnings results be the next leg down?

Funny how you just have to beat the market estimate now, as opposed to actually producing substantial earnings. And yes I know that I am oversimplifying.

I have read that the market normally rebounds about 6 months before the economy. 6 months from now, I can't see the economy doing that much better.

Consumer confidence has improved. But moreso in the way that the free fall has stopped. Or has it...will the gov't stimulus pass by just as fast as it came.

Alot rests upon China....slowing their purchase of US debt, perhaps running into their own stock bubble...and can we really trust the gov't controlled and released GDP numbers?


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

dogcom said:


> $1600 Gold by 2011 will be shorting China so he must think they are blowing up a bubble there and it does look that way. Although I would not short it because momentum is a powerful thing.


Well, the chinese index was down about 20% or so in August so momentum is now on my side. 

I plan to sell most gold stocks within a few weeks as we (imo) make new all time highs. I'm just not sure the miner's stocks will perform as well as physical gold, moving forward, if the overall market is sliding so I'll be on the safe side and switch to bullion eventually... as well as continuing to accumulate short position on emerging markets (hjd).


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## spirit (May 9, 2009)

*Anyone buying gold?*

Just rereading these posts since the price of gold has jumped so dramatically. Not planning to buy gold myself since we still have 5 coins in our safe from the last gold frenzy in the 80"sIs anyone turning into a gold bug?


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## Rickson9 (Apr 9, 2009)

"Every time we get a dip everyone says, 'Ah!' the cataclysm that everybody has been waiting for since spring, and the bulls are correct, there still is a lot of bearish sentiment."

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/fop...elEnable=1&infopanelEnable=1&carouselEnable=0

IMO speculating is a waste of time.


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## osc (Oct 17, 2009)

Rickson9 said:


> http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/fop...elEnable=1&infopanelEnable=1&carouselEnable=0


Increased unemployment is good for the market. It means higher profits for companies next quarters. I am actually surprised the market didn't increased more on the good news that unemployment is now over 10%.
Basically they are saying that, in the short term, the market can go only in one of the following directions:
- up
- down
- sideways.
I agree, lol.


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