# Timing the real estate market in Vancouver - case study



## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Interesting update today from Rob Carrick on a Vancouver family that sold their house a year ago:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ar-later-and-still-loving-it/article11360326/

This is the original article about this couple:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-bold-sell-the-house-and-rent/article2418383/

I wrote a post about his original article on this couple and (in my opinion) how hard it is to time the real estate market:

http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/should-you-sell-your-house-and-avoid-the-market-crash/

I'm not really sure what to think about this - one example of someone timing the market correctly doesn't mean that's the thing to do for everyone. Also - has the Vancouver market crashed? If they rebought their house today, would they be ahead? While I do think it's very possible for the Van market to go down a lot - I think it's a bit early to declare the 'bold' couple as winners.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Housing price corrections don't happen in a year. The US took 4-5 years peak to trough.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Four Pillars said:


> Also - has the Vancouver market crashed? .


The weird thing about the Van market is the extent to which foreigners purchase and park their $ in a "safe" haven. Since I have been here, the list includes Hong Kong (mid-nineties), China (mid-2000 ongoing) and now Egptians and other wealthy people from abroad. The media says that up to 25% of all condos are purchased, then remain empty! Until foreign money "disppears" the Van market will probably remain fairly flat. If/when foreigners pick up and go (where?), then I suspect you';; see a significant drop.


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