# 2015 predictions contest



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

2015 predictions contest

I will be running the predictions contest again in 2015.

Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on Dec 31, 2015 in the following format:

DOW: 
TSX: 
GOLD: 
OIL: 
CAD: 

with the dollar amounts in USD.

Deadline for entry is January 12th at 9:30 am EST. Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before then.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

You're the best


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

kcowan said:


> *with the dollar amounts in USD.*


huh ?


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

fatcat said:


> huh ?


I think that refers to everything but the TSX.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Indices are not in $ per se. So Dow and TSX are just numbers. Is there anywhere that the TSX gets expressed in USD?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

kcowan said:


> Indices are not in $ per se. So Dow and TSX are just numbers. Is there anywhere that the TSX gets expressed in USD?


possible but too complex



> So the formula would be[1]:
> 
> Index level= Σ(Price of stock* Number of shares)/ Index Divisor.
> 
> While one might track this portfolio’s value in dollar terms, it would probably be an unwieldy number – for example, the S&P 500 market value is roughly $11.8 trillion. Rather than deal with ten or more digits, the figure is scaled to a more easily handled number, currently around 1250. Dividing the portfolio market value by a factor, usually called the Index divisor, does the scaling.


right, i was sleepy i guess, gold oil and cad are expressed in terms of us dollar value and the indexes are just numbers *not* representing dollar values



> Continuity in index values is maintained by adjusting the divisor for all changes in the constituents’ share capital after the base date. This includes additions and deletions to the index, rights issues, share buybacks and issuances, and spin-offs. The divisor’s time series is, in effect, a chronological summary of all changes affecting the base capital of the index. The divisor is adjusted such that the index value at an instant just prior to a change in base capital equals the index value at an instant immediately following that change[2].


the divisor is a form of derivative created through a formula so it really isn't a straightforward dollar amount though i believe the indexes could be expressed as dollar amounts

http://www.wikinvest.com/index/S&P/TSX_Composite_Index_(GSPTSE)


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

I guess everyone is waiting until Jan 12 to see what happens with all this volatility?

I suppose I will submit the first guess then:

DOW: 18200
TSX: 14780
GOLD: 1285
OIL: 83
CAD: 0.88


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## Siciliano698 (Nov 29, 2010)

DOW:20,000 with QE 4
TSX:13430
GOLD: $1600
OIL: $75
CAD: 0.80

Sectors to watch 2015: Tech Sector in the US market & PM Mining sector to rebound big after July '15 for the TSX.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I am waiting for the Christmas turkey to be ready so here goes.

Dow: 19,800
Gold: 1,800
Oil: 80
CAD: .90
TSX: 1400

I expect QE4 and if that doesn't happen then we are all in trouble. Merry Christmas and good luck.


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## Underworld (Aug 26, 2009)

Dow: 19080
TSX: 15410
GOLD: 1350
OIL: 80
CAD: 0.88


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

Dow: 16500
TSX: 15,400
Gold: 1300
Oil: 75
Cad: .84


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Dow: 19300
tsx: 15700
gold: 1200
oil: 88
cad: 0.91


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

Dow: 20001
tsx: 16301
gold: 1337
oil: 83.25
cad: 0.885


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## Woz (Sep 5, 2013)

Dow: 20,500
TSX: 15,750
Gold: 1,300
Oil: 68
CAD: 0.79


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Dow: 19600
tsx: 15500
gold: 1290
oil: 77
cad: 0.82


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## LBCfan (Jan 13, 2011)

DOW: 2132
TSX: 1713
Gold: 795
Oil: 88.91
CAD: 92.4379764189


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Thanks kcowan for doing this...it's fun to play 

DOW: 19,500 
TSX: 16,200
Gold: 1,400.00 USD
Oil: 70
CAD: .85


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## Islenska (May 4, 2011)

-28C this morning

DOW 20300
TSX 15200
Gold 1200
Oil 76
$$$ 86 Happy New Year all!


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Alright...here we go 

DOW = 19,400
TSX = 15,700
Gold = 1250
Oil = 80
CAD = 0.85

Thanks for running again!


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

Apparently I'm quite bearish.

Dow: 16,500
tsx: 13,000
gold: $1100
oil: $70
cad: $1.20


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

Lets make some crazy predictions:

DOW: 13000
TSX: 11000
GOLD: 1300
OIL: 40$
CAD: .80


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

DOW: 19,200 
TSX: 15,500
Gold: $1,250
Oil: $69
CAD: .84


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## bflannel (Apr 21, 2013)

Dow: 19700
tsx: 15790
gold: $ 1301
oil: $ 63.55
cad: $ 0.83


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## Emma (May 18, 2013)

DOW: 18580
TSX: 15200
Gold: 1540
Oil: 72
CAD: .81


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

DOW: 19900
TSX: 15300
Gold: 1800
Oil: 78
CAD: .88


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## Freddie70 (Oct 19, 2013)

Dow: 22,010
tsx: 13,850
gold: 950
oil: 65
cad: 72


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

DOW : 24000
TSX :17000
Gold :1400
Oil :90
Cad : 90


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

Dow: 18100
TSX: 15600
GOLD: 1300
OIL: 74 
CAD: .89


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

I'll play again.

DOW: 18900
TSX: 15500
Gold: 1350
Oil: 80
CAD: .84


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## tombiosis (Dec 18, 2010)

Dow: 19800
tsx: 14850
gold: 1590
oil: 91
cad: .88


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

DOW: 18600
TSX: 15100
Gold: 1240
Oil: 67.5
CAD: .8325


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

DOW: 19600
TSX: 16350
Gold: 1350
Oil: 70
CAD: .8165


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Dow 19420
tsx 15650
gold $1210
oil $72
cad $0.79


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## Xoron (Jun 22, 2010)

Dow: 18,700
TSX: 16,400
Gold: 1200
Oil: 75
CAD: 0.90


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## explorer416 (Jun 11, 2010)

Dow: 19155
TSX: 15555
GOLD: 1385
OIL: 72
CAD: 0.825


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Always fun, I was overall winner in 2014, so I should be expecting a lesson in humility this year, but I'll still throw the lucky horseshoe with confidence, here goes..

DOW: 19,200
TSX: 15,800
Gold: 1,187
Oil: 59.80
CAD: 0.8417


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

DOW: 20054
TSX:16421
GOLD:1050
OIL:91
CAD:.89

Looks like the good times roll this year, at least by December.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

DOW: 16,101
TSX: 14,101
GOLD: $1,101
OIL: $101
CAD: $1.01

Thanks Keith for running this again!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

mrPPincer said:


> Always fun, *I was overall winner in 2014* ...


 ... a belated congratulations! :encouragement:


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Beaver101 said:


> DOW: 16,101
> TSX: 14,101
> GOLD: $1,101
> OIL: $1.01
> ...


is your oil price correct? Most think it's going to be 50-80 dollars higher.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Beaver101 said:


> ... a belated congratulations! :encouragement:


Thanks & welcome back!



RBull said:


> is your oil price correct? Most think it's going to be 50-80 dollars higher.


^yeah, looks like a typo?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

It will be published as $101 and he will have a chance to correct it if he really meant $1.01...


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Keith, you read my mind - it's $101... I was typing too quickly. Thanks for the correction! And eagle eyes RBull & mrPPincer.


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## NorthKC (Apr 1, 2013)

DOW: 20415
TSX: 16105
Gold: 1475
Oil: 52
CAD: .7845


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## DesignerDee (Apr 10, 2013)

Here follows my guess:

DOW = 19,725
TSX = 16,780
Gold = 1053
Oil = 72.50
CAD = .89
:smilet-digitalpoint


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## nortel'd (Mar 20, 2012)

I predict
DOW: 13300
TSX: 11750
GOLD: 1050
OIL: 63
CAD: 0.82


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

*DOW:* 20,903
*TSX:* 16,427
*GOLD:* $1400 [if so, then it would just be -27% from the 2011 all-time high of US$1921].
*OIL:* $73
*CAD:* $.90

*Beav:* hope your oil prediction comes true!


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Keith, you read my mind - it's $101... I was typing too quickly. Thanks for the correction! And eagle eyes RBull & mrPPincer.


You're welcome!


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

DOW: 18181
TSX: 13181
Gold: 1281
Oil: 81
CAD: .81


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> *DOW:* ...
> 
> *Beav:* hope your oil prediction comes true!


 ... I hope so and we both will be rich. :biggrin:


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

Thanks for running this, kcowan! Top 10 finish ain't too shabby for me last year . Here we go again!

DOW: 19225
TSX: 15325
Gold: 1305
Oil: 65.25
CAD: 0.8275


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Deadline extended to today at noon. Normally I put out reminders but forgot this year.
 
DOW: 18,800
TSX: 14,000
Gold: 1,300
OIL: 90
CAD: .88


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

If you'd be kind enough to consider another 40 min. extension, here are my entries:

DOW: 13,500
TSX: 12,200
Gold: $1,550
Oil: $83
CAD: $0.78


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

*Harold:* did you include the Santa Claus rally in your DOW/TSX numbers? 

Thanks kcowan for the bit of fun. Good luck to us all!


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> *Harold:* did you include the Santa Claus rally in your DOW/TSX numbers?


Yup, that is _including_ the Santa rally.
If no Santa rally, then it will close lower.



> Thanks kcowan for the bit of fun. Good luck to us all!


+1. It is good fun.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Harold
Especially this year, an extra day means very little!


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

If you keep extending the deadline, everyone will keep lowering their forecasts :biggrin:


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

No need to lower

IMHO I believe that we will see at least 20% upside across the markets in NA


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

In that case, keep increasing the forecasts.
Either way, close the entries fast :biggrin:


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Since we're playing a game, why not be contrarian/optimistic? 

I think we should have a one time opportunity to adjust, up March 18th.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> Since we're playing a game, why not be contrarian/optimistic?


Yup, that is how I set up my entries.
In Jan 2014, I had no idea I'd "win" the oil forecast.
Back then, oil at $83 was an absolutely crazy/scary forecast.

However, I had a pretty high degree of confidence in the CAD$ forecast, and I came very close.
In fact, I was "off" by only a week - CAD$ hit my forecast during the first trading week of Jan.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> Since we're playing a game, why not be contrarian/optimistic?
> 
> *I think we should have a one time opportunity to adjust, up March 18th.*


 ... that's a GREAT idea! I was banking on getting rich with that oil forecast of mine's but then I'm not so sure it'll happen at the end of the year ... drats!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here are the contenders for 2015. Pls check your content for accuracy.









Source


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

Seems to be broken... even the source just displays a blank page.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Thanks for the feedback sometimes I have problems with my cache.

Turns out I was exceeding the storage provided by my hosting service. No error message. Just truncated the transfer at the limit.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

NorthKC is the early leader.


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## NorthKC (Apr 1, 2013)

Whoohoo! . We still have 11 more months to go but I'll enjoy it in the meantime! Haha


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Last year's winner jumps into the lead again!


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Woot!! (too early, but I'll take it)


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Always fun reading the updates!


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

mrPPincer said:


> Woot!! (too early, but I'll take it)


I'm going to chase you down.....

Actually it's kind of scary being close at this point in the year....


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

RBull said:


> I'm going to chase you down.......


So will NorthKC right above you. 

At least the rest of us have a full 10 months to recover.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Toronto.gal said:


> So will NorthKC right above you.
> 
> *At least the rest of us have a full 10 months to recover.*


That is probably a good position to be in.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

mrPPincer said:


> Woot!! (too early, but I'll take it)


 ... nice going mrPPincer! again. :star:

Hey, I'm pretty good at *predicting* (actually wanted to) being last (or close to) on this list. (But LBCfan beat me to it, drats!) :biggrin:


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## cornwall (Mar 10, 2015)

*what about natural gas?*



nobleea said:


> i guess everyone is waiting until jan 12 to see what happens with all this volatility?
> 
> I suppose i will submit the first guess then:
> 
> ...


ng: 4:biggrin:


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## cornwall (Mar 10, 2015)




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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Boring!


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

:smile-new:


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Boring!


 ... LOL! Boring as Buffett ... I don't think mrPPincer minds at all, again a winner! :biggrin:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

mrPPincer is the leader.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Still! sorry folks, there's always next month


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Yes there is!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

mrPPincer said:


> Still! sorry folks, there's always next month


 ... I think your lead acts as the best indicators for the market this year ... nice going! again. :encouragement:


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## Vicjai (May 15, 2015)

what's the prize for this contest?


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ A :star: ?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Vicjai said:


> what's the prize for this contest?


We divide up the fees for entry (less a modest administrative fee). 10% for each category winner and 50% for the overall predictor.:cower:


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

kcowan said:


> We divide up the fees for entry (less a modest administrative fee). 10% for each category winner and 50% for the overall predictor.:cower:


Too bad there's no prize for tenacity in stubbornly holding on to the lead month to month 

again..


mrPPincer said:


> Still! sorry folks, there's always next month


7 months to go, anything can happen yet, good luck all !! :biggrin:


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^


> 7 months to go, *anything can happen yet*, good luck all !!


 ... yes, guess you ain't wishing a Black Swan event as others would. :wink: Nice going "again". :rugby:


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ ... yes, guess you ain't wishing a Black Swan event as others would. :wink: Nice going "again". :rugby:


actually beavr, my investing style has been designed & modified to capitalize on more erratic markets than what we've been experiencing the last few years,; I'm actually ready for an 'event' and have been for a while so right now I'm almost at the point where I'm thinking 'alright already, any time now'.

I've set myself up to capitalize on volatility somewhat, which we haven't had, but I'm sticking with the game plan & after volatility jumps, like after an 'event', at what I think is the right time I'll reset the dials, but, long-term plan is in place, which also includes another reset after a marked increase after supposed correction.

Guessing the 1 yr futures on 5 commodities for me is somewhat simpler; because black swan events (even though they can have a massive impact) are, natura sua, less likely to happen in any given year, ergo, praedictio regularis & win, potissimum vicis.

___


(btw.. fer thai rekrd, don aktchulee noe latin, aie noe google lol)


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Ah ha! You let your investing "secret" out but I won't blow your cover here since you're on a winning streak with this "predictions" contest ... smart plan! :wink: :wink: 

Sorry my google translator doesn't work at the moment but I know you're talking Latin but aren't you suppose to be talking in Greek with the 1 year into futures stuff? :biggrin:


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

mrPPincer said:


> Too bad there's no prize for tenacity in stubbornly holding on to the lead month to month
> 
> again..
> 
> ...


Thanks. We'll need it against you although there is daylight opening up!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Can't wait to see June's results ...


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

1st half leader is mrPPincer.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

kcowan said:


> 1st half leader is mrPPincer.


While I have checked the leaderboard before, I just noticed now that my predictions didn't make it on to the board. You'll find mine was the first guess in this post. I think I'm closest on the TSX right now.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

nobleea said:


> While I have checked the leaderboard before, I just noticed now that my predictions didn't make it on to the board. You'll find mine was the first guess in this post. I think I'm closest on the TSX right now.


 ... yes it is but you didn't sign up for the "2015" contest. ... please try again, this is a recording. :biggrin:


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

kcowan said:


> 1st half leader is mrPPincer.


 ... I think nothing can wobble mrPPincer's 1st place position in this year's contest. :triumphant:


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Ugh, not doing so well with my guesswork. Kudos to mrPPincer!!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

nobleea said:


> While I have checked the leaderboard before, I just noticed now that my predictions didn't make it on to the board. You'll find mine was the first guess in this post. I think I'm closest on the TSX right now.


Sorry nobleea. I don't know how I missed your entry. You are right, the very first! I will fix that today. Fortunately, the 1st half payout has not been made yet.:neglected:

Your current rank is 18th overall and you will show up next month.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Well done so far mrPPincer.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Thanks for the kudos CMFers 
We're only halfway there though. Friday marks the beginning of the second half, will there be a new leader?
I'll be looking forward to the update this weekend :eagerness:


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^


> Yesterday, 09:06 PM: ... I'll be looking forward to the update this weekend :eagerness:


 ... LOL ... :eagerness:


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## Woz (Sep 5, 2013)

It looks like Janus would have given mrPPincer a run for his money if it wasn’t for Janus’ uber-bullish prediction of CAD hitting a 100 year high of 1CAD=1.2USD :biggrin:


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

or might be close to me in any case.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Although mrPPincer retains the overall lead, it is worthy of note that nobleea was #1 in the TSX prediction and #3 in the Dow!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Nice going for both gentlemen!

Now, will there be consolation prizes as well as a special "last-runner" prize at end of the year? :biggrin: Just asking since I don't see the rules/rewards fine print anywhere.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

kcowan said:


> Although mrPPincer retains the overall lead, it is worthy of note that nobleea was #1 in the TSX prediction and #3 in the Dow!


Where is this posted?


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

RBull said:


> Where is this posted?


it's upthread, post #63. Link;
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showt...ctions-contest?p=513185&viewfull=1#post513185


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

^Thanks. I asked because I am just not seeing nobleea

Maybe I need stronger reading glasses.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

..or hold down the Ctrl button and use the mouse scroll wheel or the +/- buttons to change the size of the page 

edit .. unless you're on a mobile device in which case I don't know because I don't own one.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Looks like the results for this month is going to be :topsy_turvy:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Beaver101 said:


> Looks like the results for this month is going to be


mrPPincer!


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

:biggrin::biggrin::biggrin:


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ LOL! 

:star: :star: :star: :star: ... hey Keith, we're running out of stars ...


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

significant shifts in the markets in the markets lately
new leader tomorrow maybe?
if so it's been a good run, good luck all


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

> new leader tomorrow maybe?


Another great prediction by mrPPincer:
Congratulations supperfly17
Results
(Sent via WiFi from Taormina Sicily)


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Oh, mrPPincer got shifted from first place but that was a spectacular run - and still 2 more months to go. :encouragement:

Oh, I moved 6 places up and leads on the DJI as well as gold ... so I learned something on CMF? :eek2:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

mrPPincer regains the lead


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

superfly17 bounds into the lead! The countdown is on...


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Well done!

Still lots of time for 19,400 Dow; 15,700 TSX  

I'm waiving the white flag now....


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

congrats supperfly!

@MOA, anything can happen yet & as much as I'd like to see first place two years in a row.. I'd much rather see your more optimistic prediction come true for dec 31, gl


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

superfly17 was the clear winner, winning overall and also category winner for
OIL Congratulations!

Other category winners were
DOW webber22
TSX Janus
GOLD DesignerDee
$CAD Freddie70 

The overall rankings are as follows:
Overall results. 
Congratulations to all participants and please continue in the 2016 contest.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Impressive!! Congrats!!! Thanks for running kcowan!


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Thanks kcowan ...it's fun to see what a difference a year makes! Happy New Year to all.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

thanks as always for doing this !


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Thanks for putting it together kcowan. 

Reality was certainly a long ways from where most guessed, and even from the closer guestimates.


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## NorthKC (Apr 1, 2013)

Congrats to everyone and I'm sure we've all learned something new this year.

5th overall for my first time doing this. Not too shabby!


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## DesignerDee (Apr 10, 2013)

I am GOLDen - yess! Thanks for the fun kcowan. It is always great fun to follow the contest!


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

thanks from me too!


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## GizelleGizelle (Jun 10, 2016)

What about the oil predictions for 2017? Analysts claim oil prices will rise, because annual oil consumption will exceed the oil production for the very first time since 2013. What do you guys think?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I think we have already seen the market response. The price has risen steadily.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Putting this here on purpose so it dies an early death.*

I could put this in the music thread accompanied by Mary Hopkin singing _"Those Were The Days"_ - and glorious days they were. More than a few of us remember how it was coming out of the Carter years. Felt the same as when coming up for air after swimming pool length under water.

This isn't 1980, Trump ain't Reagan, and the hot women of my youth are grandmothers, 
but beware thinking the coast is clear on the Island of IMFNW (increasing my financial net worth).



post a picture


_____________________
I shall submit "report post" 
as this thread doesn't need to be 'sticky' any more, does it?


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

ah yes...Reagan. 
I recall watching "Inside Job" - a documentary on events leading up to the financial crisis (2009). Apparently (say the authors), Reagan's decision to deregulate banks in/around 1982 to help stimulate the economy out of the recession was "Act I" leading to later events on the crisis 28 years later. makes me wonder whether a similar decision will follow with Trump...


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