# Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX.TO)



## Axcell

Hey guys, I own shares of ABX.TO, and I couldn't seem to figure out why this thing was down today so I averaged down my position.

Would love to hear people's views about the company and why this thing was down. Solid for a mining company, and though I like GG more, this is by far a better value for those entering the market.


----------



## andrewf

Seems like a decent entry point, but I don't buy Barrick directly. It's not far above the trend at the moment.


----------



## Homerhomer

Axcell said:


> Hey guys, I own shares of ABX.TO, and I couldn't seem to figure out why this thing was down today so I averaged down my position.
> 
> Would love to hear people's views about the company and why this thing was down. Solid for a mining company, and though I like GG more, this is by far a better value for those entering the market.



http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Barrick-Gold-takes-rare-capress-781986512.html?x=0

Personally I would wait for the dust to settle and lower entry point if it ever happens.


----------



## runner39

book value per share $13.66

maybe wait?


----------



## MikeT

Imagine there's a famine, and the only thing that can grow is corn... And the price of corn is rapidly rising because the demand for corn is high.

Do you buy corn, or a tractor?


----------



## daddybigbucks

MikeT said:


> Imagine there's a famine, and the only thing that can grow is corn... And the price of corn is rapidly rising because the demand for corn is high.
> 
> Do you buy corn, or a tractor?


I dont get your analogy at all.
if i wanted to make a quick buck i would buy corn but if i wanted long term growth i would buy the tractor.

I am also looking at ABX as well. If it treads down to $44, i will buy.


----------



## Argonaut

Add another vote for MikeT's analogy not making sense.

Hmm, ABX down 10% this year. Just goes to show, don't overthink gold. Just buy the metal. CGL is good to play declining USD at the same time.


----------



## mario 1

MikeT said:


> Imagine there's a famine, and the only thing that can grow is corn... And the price of corn is rapidly rising because the demand for corn is high.
> 
> Do you buy corn, or a tractor?


Corn, what the heck are you gonna do with a tractor?.
Sell rides down Yonge st.


----------



## Taxsaver

Can you sell now and buy again in July which is usually the lowest price according to seasonality? Verify this claim, though.


----------



## KaeJS

Currently down $1.05 at $45.00/share.

I own 300 at $46.55 so it hurts a little.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info 

Copper Jun 11 4.06 12:41PM EDT 0.04 (0.99%) Futures Chain 
*Gold 100 oz. Jun 11 1,524.10 11:27AM EDT 18.70 (1.21%)Futures Chain 
Gold Jun 11 1,532.30 1:39PM EDT 10.10 (0.65%) Futures Chain *
Palladium Jun 11 773.30 11:05AM EDT 8.05 (1.04%) Futures Chain 
Platinum Jun 11 1,796.10 3:55AM EDT 27.80 (1.52%) Futures Chain 
Silver 5000 oz. Jun 11 37.12 May 26 0.56 (1.49%) Futures Chain 
Silver Jun 11 36.21 12:51PM EDT 1.48 (3.94%) Futures Chain 

This is the reason, I take it?

Who else is holding? I thought buying in at $46.55 was a surefire way to hit $50 especially when the economy is doing so poorly and Barrick has consistently done well. Nobody is a gold bug anymore? 

EPS Growth:

Diluted Normalized EPS 0.98 / 0.87 / 0.82 / 0.80 / 0.73 

0.98/share for 1st quarter 2011 as opposed to 0.73 for first quarter 2010.


----------



## humble_pie

i'm not a gold bug, but long-term i do believe in gold. Barrick or goldcorp are mainstays in many portfolios, imho.

there was recent insider buying in barrick. Regent is a good ceo imho. Stock may currently be hurt by bad publicity over africa barrick.

ABX is an absolutely perfect candidate for selling out-of-the-money call options. I recently rolled over july 50s into a mix of january 50s & 55s.

my cost base in barrick is CAD 35.32. I will be rolling this up slightly - normally i try to keep cost base no more than 15% lower than market, because of the options - so i will be buying 2-3 more lots when prices seem on the low side, then selling the same within a short time frame as prices rise a bit. However i'm not inspired to do this today. What would trigger the manoeuvre is a thumping downward crack in gold - actually a sharp rise in USD - but i don't see this any time soon.


----------



## KaeJS

humble_pie said:


> my cost base in barrick is CAD 35.32. I will be rolling this up slightly - normally i try to keep cost base no more than 15% lower than market, because of the options - so i will be buying 2-3 more lots when prices seem on the low side, then selling the same within a short time frame as prices rise a bit. However i'm not inspired to do this today. What would trigger the manoeuvre is a thumping downward crack in gold - actually a sharp rise in USD - but i don't see this any time soon.


That is a very nice cost base.

I think I will average down if it continues to drop. Like you said, though, I was not inspired to do that today.


----------



## KaeJS

Almost getting close to a 52wk low.

Stock has hit over $50+ 7 times since January 2008.

Now trading at $42.

Traders dreamstock, but risky as fk..

I'm still holding in!


----------



## Mark Rose

I'd still wait. The down trend in stocks will likely last for many more months. If historical patterns hold, it'll get below the March 09 low of 6,547 -- or 8000ish adjusted for real inflation (roughly 9% for the last two years according to shadowstats.com).

I wouldn't expect Barrick to drop as much as other stocks, since gold buying accelerates in fall, and owning Barrick is also an inflation hedge.


----------



## KaeJS

Thanks for that opinion, Mark.

It seems like most people on here are not too fond of Barrick.


----------



## Mark Rose

Personally, I'm waiting for DJIA of around 10,000 before jumping into the market. I don't mind jumping in 20% off the theoretical bottom as I'm investing for the long term... but if the dead cat is still falling back to earth from its bounce, why get underneath it?

The only thing that would screw it up is accelerated money printing. They most certainly won't call it quantitative easing as enough people have associated that with money printing and bank bailouts. If they do continue the money printing, I'll jump in, as the decline won't last too long in dollar terms as inflation will outpace the bottom end of the decline.

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dj-infl.htm

There are a lot of lemmings jumping into the market today on "good" consumer spending reports. Spending declined 0.2% less than expected -- but that's still a decline -- at a time when the price of food and fuel is rising. The economy is not well at all.

And remember the GDP numbers are phony: as they include public spending, they're not a measure of productivity. And as inflation is under-reported, economic "growth" is over-stated. So if they say GDP growth is 3%, and real inflation is 9% not 0%, that's a 6% contraction.

But back to Barrick, they're well positioned in two ways: gold and copper. When the US hyperinflates (I doubt they'll default, and it's one or the other) Barrick wins from a reduction in its debt in real terms and from having real money or even just tangible assets. And Asia is in a long term bull market, and copper is used in all sorts of things. Yes, emerging markets will get hit hard here shortly, but they'll bounce back due to real growth. Barring bad management or externalities, Barrick should continue to rake in real value in the long term. And if the world returns to real money (gold, silver, and sometimes copper), Barrick will be worth an immeasurable fortune.


----------



## gibor365

I don't believe the Feds will let Dow to fall even to 11000 level. They will do it by money printing or any other measure. From 1940 3rd year of presidential cycle was bullish, so don't think this one will be exception...
and I'm not talking about real value and market value, car that you buy now for 35K, also doesn't cost that much.

"_Personally, I'm waiting for DJIA of around 10,000 before jumping into the market. _ and if it's not happens? will you be sitting in cash until retirement?!


----------



## Mark Rose

It might be time to think about getting into precious metals mining stocks again...

http://www.financialsense.com/contr...gold-and-silver-stock-bottom-likely-days-away


----------



## ddkay

> However, this is not another 2008. Then there was credit stress in the private sector and not on the sovereign side. Oil and inflation cut into margins of the miners and there was forced selling as hedge funds blew up. We don’t see any of these problems today.


This person is talking like no one uses margin anymore. We're only in the most over-leveraged market since the peak of the credit bubble: http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8

Sovereign debt is the core of our financial system. What we could see in coming years is credit stress on both the sovereign side _and_ the private sector.


----------



## KaeJS

Mark Rose said:


> It might be time to think about getting into precious metals mining stocks again...
> 
> http://www.financialsense.com/contr...gold-and-silver-stock-bottom-likely-days-away


I hope so, Barrick Gold is killing my portfolio right now. I made the mistake of buying in too early at $46.55 apparently.

Shouldn't this thing be up at $50 where it belongs?


----------



## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> Shouldn't this thing be up at $50 where it belongs?


All my stocks should be up where they belong.
Oh, the injustice of it all


----------



## Knight Rider

Any thoughts on ABX at the moment? Was looking at getting in on Goldcorp, but this stock is very similar. Just off a 52-week low, analysts report this stock as a strong buy.


----------



## Islenska

Just bought ABX at $40.70, averaging down and G at $40.80, haven't seen these levels for some time, hopefully good entry points!


----------



## dogcom

On gold stocks this is certainly one of those be greedy when everyone is fearful times. Maybe the gold bull is done but I really don't think so because all the problems in the world are still there and there wasn't any kind of parabolic rise on the part of gold stocks.


----------



## blin10

it cracked 200 ma, watch out it CAN turn ugly


----------



## dogcom

It will probably get very ugly blin10 before it gets better but I think in the end it will be much better for those who are buying now.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

Yup, the shorts are crawling out of the woodwork and they'll be all over gold like white on rice.

No hurry to buy yet, this will be ugly for some time.


----------



## Axcell

On my watch list right now... haven't seen it this cheap in a while. You can always average down later even if it does turn ugly before it turns great.


----------



## PMREdmonton

this is a good spot to sell a cash secured put if you don't want to hold the stock long-term but want to take some leverage off its pop back up.

I like the July 41 put for 2.87. If you end up getting assigned the stock your cost base is only 38.13 which is a steal for this company. This company is priced for $1000/oz gold right now but I don't think gold will drop below $1000 again due to its increasing scarcity. The new mines they are digging are of lower value with higher costs of extraction or are located in politically unstable parts of the world. 

Very cheap gold is a thing of the past because if the price drops most of the new producers become uneconomic and new exploration and development will cease.

I'm presently already long Goldcorp and Nevsun for gold and Hecla for silver. I have held ABX in the past and may sell a put soon.

If you are interested in selling puts in undervalued stocks, HAL is another good one right now.


----------



## Axcell

Picked some shares up yesterday below $40. Anybody else think this is a great swing opportunity? Multi-year lows, blue chip company.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Yes, if you have strong hands this one should pop as the contagion fears spread causing stock markets to quiver and the money to flood back into gold.

The crisis is far from over. I think it will last 8-12 years so we are at the halfway point.


----------



## ddkay

Gold miners shouldn't outperform spot gold the same way blue chip oil never outperforms spot oil. There is too much overhead. To make it worse there is tons of gold in circulation that refiners actively look to melt down and recycle into new bullion. Sentiment wise this metal is in the gutter. Jim Rogers says hes bearish on gold short term, but wants to resume buying at $1100-$1200/oz. I don't think it will get that low personally so I have a buy stop on GLD at 155 and auto sell at 150. I believe there will be a triple top around 185 before the year is over where I will look to dump.


----------



## Axcell

PMREdmonton said:


> Yes, if you have strong hands this one should pop as the contagion fears spread causing stock markets to quiver and the money to flood back into gold.
> 
> The crisis is far from over. I think it will last 8-12 years so we are at the halfway point.


Instead of averaging down on my $40/share position in ABX, I bought some G at $40 today. I'm in it for the long-term.


----------



## PMREdmonton

In principle gold miners are leveraged to the price of gold so should outperform gold in a bull rally.

There are several things holding them back including uncertainty of long-term gold prices, geopolitical instability in mining areas, poor mine execution by management and rising costs per oz.

I like GG because it is a low-cost producer in a poltically stable part of the world with potential for increased gold production soon. They also produce a lot of silver whose bull case is stronger than gold, IMO.

I don't think anyone can go too wrong with G, ABX or YRI or IMG.

The juniors are a potential multi-bagger if you buy the right one and they execute. That whole sector has been bludgeoned over the last year.


----------



## ban

Hello everybody.
Q3 results out today, far from great, but the market punishment seems too severe…
Thoughts?


----------



## avrex

I have this stock. I'm not happy.


----------



## Young&Ambitious

I'm sad my 20% unrealized gain turned into 7% and now to 4%... I'm holding out for next quarter and will collect the divi in the meantime.


----------



## Toronto.gal

ban said:


> Q3 results out today, far from great, but the market punishment seems too severe…Thoughts?


Welcome to the forum Ban!

Thoughts about what, the stock or the investors' punishment? 

I don't own ABX, however, if you have been following the markets [in general], there has been little mercy & appetite for bad news these days.

A drop of 10%+ is no longer severe, but the norm for now. I guess investors could not swallow the costs associated with the Pascua-Lama project.

*Y&A:* sorry to hear, but that is volatility for you, and yes, I will say that you should have gotten less greedy when you were up +20% [unless you were holding long-term]. I don't know how many shares you have, but if you had sold 20% for example when you were up, now you could have picked them up again. Not the thing to do with banks & other stocks, but with gold?! Don't feel so bad; I have had 100% profits evaporate, but not this year. 

I plan on averaging down my own gold positions.


----------



## dogcom

Kinross is down a lot and also about to report earnings. This one might do better then we think since the CEO heard loud and clear from investors about costs and so on and says he will do something about it, so maybe we get a surprise on this one.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> Kinross is down a lot and also about to report earnings. This one might do better then we think since the CEO heard loud and clear from investors about costs and so on and says he will do something about it, so maybe we get a surprise on this one.


might do better or...... NOT....
i would not count on good results on that and hold before earnings.
either way good luck


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Welcome to the forum Ban!
> 
> Thoughts about what, the stock or the investors' punishment?
> 
> I don't own ABX, however, if you have been following the markets [in general], there has been little mercy & appetite for bad news these days.
> 
> A drop of 10%+ is no longer severe, but the norm for now. I guess investors could not swallow the costs associated with the Pascua-Lama project.
> 
> *Y&A:* sorry to hear, but that is volatility for you, and yes, I will say that you should have gotten less greedy when you were up +20% [unless you were holding long-term]. I don't know how many shares you have, but if you had sold 20% for example when you were up, now you could have picked them up again. Not the thing to do with banks & other stocks, but with gold?! Don't feel so bad; I have had 100% profits evaporate, but not this year.
> 
> I plan on averaging down my own gold positions.


T.gal
I believe that BAN has not seen severe yet.
take a look at CEE after the Egyptian court ruling .
take a look at centerra gold when it was punished.
these puppies are not for the faint of heart.
GL anyway BAN.


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Re Tgal: Yup long-term perspective on this one. Besides, with all the money getting printed off for the storm, gold may go higher. Time will tell


----------



## Belguy

Gold: Look out below!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ow-first-gold-stocks-now-gold/article4883980/


----------



## thenegotiator

Belguy
apparently it seems that u were the only one that could not see a correction in gold.
why?
same with silver.
could you please explain why u have not seen that gold would correct at some point?


----------



## underemployedactor

According to my tea leaves, Obama wins, Bernanke keeps his job, the money presses keep rolling, the greenback falls back, gold see 2000 in '13 providing enough profit margin that even the dunderheads at Barrick will make money. conclusion - ABX at $35 is a buy!


----------



## Belguy

thenegotiator said:


> Belguy
> apparently it seems that u were the only one that could not see a correction in gold.
> why?
> same with silver.
> could you please explain why u have not seen that gold would correct at some point?


Nothing goes up in a perpetual straight line!! I allocate 5 per cent of my overall portfolio to precious metals via the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund and then just hold it forever trading only for rebalancing purposes.


----------



## Eder

Gold was $870 in 1980...took 28 years before those guys broke even on paper...I doubt with inflation that they will ever break even...I'd rather own real business but I'm sure I'm alone here lol.


----------



## GoldStone

Eder, you are not alone. I really like what Buffett said about gold:

_“Gold is a way of going long on fear, and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money, but the gold itself doesn’t produce anything.”_

As we move further away from 2008, fear should go down not up (IMHO).


----------



## thenegotiator

underemployedactor said:


> According to my tea leaves, Obama wins, Bernanke keeps his job, the money presses keep rolling, the greenback falls back, gold see 2000 in '13 providing enough profit margin that even the dunderheads at Barrick will make money. conclusion - ABX at $35 is a buy!


35 bux today.
did u buy it?
maybe 32 bux?


----------



## underemployedactor

I did. Got in at 35.20 so missed the bottom.


----------



## dogcom

thenegotiator said:


> might do better or...... NOT....
> i would not count on good results on that and hold before earnings.
> either way good luck


It turned out just as I thought on Kinross and the only mistake I made was not to buy more. Still however I appreciate the warning because normally it doesn't come out very well.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> It turned out just as I thought on Kinross and the only mistake I made was not to buy more. Still however I appreciate the warning because normally it doesn't come out very well.


good for ya.
u had a 50/50 chance.
it is good ole racetrack right?


----------



## PMREdmonton

thenegotiator said:


> good for ya.
> u had a 50/50 chance.
> it is good ole racetrack right?


The market has mood swings. Sometimes it becomes horribly pessimistic. Right now all the miners are struggling with rising costs which is partly energy related, partly labor related but mostly due to declining quality in new goldmines which often have more difficult extraction or much lower grades of available ore. The thing is this is permanent.

What the market isn't appreciating, IMO, is that there is still major demand for gold but there is a major supply constraint. Most of the suppliers are priced on the basis that there will be a major correction in gold price but I actually think they are wrong. I am not convinced it is going to be $5000 Cdn/oz anytime soon but the cost of gold should settle out close to the marginal cost of extraction in the long run. Most of the big players in the space still are mining some long lived assets with markedly lower costs of production and they should remain quite profitable for the next several years.

I am happy to accumulate ABX at this price point but I sold some OTM calls when the price was stronger a month ago and SP was around 41. It looks like that call will go away and I"ll pocket the $1.50 per share.

I do like gold miners in my portfolio over gold because the cost of gold in the ground for these companies is quite low right now (P/E of 10.7), they will go up if gold price goes up, I don't have to store the gold if I buy the miners and some of the companies now pay decent dividends (2.2%) which are growing quite regularly (167% in the last 5 years).

I look at the miners as trading stocks, though, and not as long-term holds. I would sell ABX at 42 by using calls to collect some extra income in the process. When they get around 35 I think it is worthwhile to buy some and also sell some out of the money puts. Goldcorp did catch me with its huge plunge earlier this year but I just rolled over the put in the end and broke even. I actually would have done better to stake the stock and ride its way back up but oh well..... Hindsight is 20/20.


----------



## dogcom

thenegotiator said:


> good for ya.
> u had a 50/50 chance.
> it is good ole racetrack right?


Thanks for the nice words the negotiator but the way I saw Kinross and what it had faced in the last year I figured the chances of earnings catching a bid was actually very high like 90 percent. It isn't like RIM trying to sell, it is more like pmredmonton says and that is there is a demand for gold so just get your costs in line. Kinross got the message loud and clear and acted on it as they gave every indication that they would.


----------



## Young&Ambitious

If I had the money I'd be buying more of this one right now, it's getting pretty low.


----------



## Siciliano698

just added 200 shares to my tfsa @ 33.99


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> Thanks for the nice words the negotiator but the way I saw Kinross and what it had faced in the last year I figured the chances of earnings catching a bid was actually very high like 90 percent. It isn't like RIM trying to sell, it is more like pmredmonton says and that is there is a demand for gold so just get your costs in line. Kinross got the message loud and clear and acted on it as they gave every indication that they would.


Dog.
np.
going down though right?
one thing is the commodity , another thing is gold itself.
either way i hope u make successful trades.
i am completely in disagreement with PMR though.
maybe it is my nature of being an energy trader?
IMG had their throat cut today did it not?
cheers


----------



## dogcom

For sure all gold companies are facing issues that aren't going away any time soon. They are also following the general market lower as well with almost everything taking a hit right now.

However I believe like the fellows said above that now would be a good time to buy ABX if you are thinking of a position in this sector.


----------



## zylon

> INK Alerts: Barrick Gold Co-Chair John Thorton bought 177.5k shares yesterday at $33.86USD via http://www.inkresearch.com


- via Twitter @Canadianinsider


----------



## logicfirst

I hold this stock at 35.80. As you can see I m under water. I was wondering how you folks are playing this. Should I continue to hold it?


----------



## Young&Ambitious

Why did you get into it in the first place? What were your technical or fundamental reasons or other information that encouraged you to make the purchase? Has something changed about your initial opinion so that it is no longer the same opinion? And you are barely under water...if you are concerned about being down 5%, maybe you are not disposed towards stock picking. Things can't always just be up. They will go up and they will go down.


----------



## Axcell

I'm in a similar boat, except I hold Goldcorp. I think either are great long-term holds. It just takes some patience, but these are great entry levels and a well diversified portfolio should minimize your losses during these times.


----------



## zylon

Supreme Court rules against Barrick in Pakistan

Snip:


> Barrick owns 37.5% of Reko Diq in a joint venture with Antofagasta PLC, and the project has always been a high-risk experiment in a region where the company has no history. Dundee Capital Markets analyst Vanessa Gravina wrote in an informal comment that most investors “don’t likely attribute” value to Reko Diq, even though Barrick’s share of the indicated resources works out to 9.5 million ounces of gold and 11.7 billion pounds of copper.
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/2...kistan/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


- via Twitter ‏@fpinvesting


----------



## dogcom

On an individual basis like ABX it could underperform for its own reasons, so I hold an ETF instead of just goldcorp or whatever. As far as gold, silver and gold and silver stocks go now is the time to be adding and buying and not the time to be selling. If you are selling then you should not be in this sector at all because this is probably the hardest sector of all to be holding or playing. Maybe you sell because you think Barrick is wrong and a different gold stock is better to buy and that would be fine according to you information. 

Today or at this time is probably the hardest time to own this stuff since last June and sentiment is completely shot. Having said that most people want to buy silver for example when it was $45.00 or goldcorp $45.00 plus dollars and rising and today when silver is below $30.00 and Goldcorp blow $34.00 nobody wants it even though nothing has changed as far as money printing goes and so on. 

To the credit of most on this forum however we find people kicking the tires of these stocks when they are down and beaten and not when they are high like most of the public does.


----------



## thompsg4416

I just picked up 100 shares of Barrick @ 33.86. I've never owned a gold stock before we'll see how it treats me As a bit of a value investor I think the time is right.


----------



## thenegotiator

thompsg4416 said:


> I just picked up 100 shares of Barrick @ 33.86. I've never owned a gold stock before we'll see how it treats me As a bit of a value investor I think the time is right.


how long are u going to hold it?
100 shares seems very little .


----------



## Addy

thenegotiator said:


> how long are u going to hold it?
> 100 shares seems very little .


That is rather subjective! Not everyone considers near $3400 to be very little.


----------



## thenegotiator

Addy said:


> That is rather subjective! Not everyone considers near $3400 to be very little.


my apologies.
i did not mean to demean the value.
actually it is not ur trade?
therefore why the comment?
are you holding it?


----------



## Addy

Since it appears your questions are simply to start an argument I will ignore them and hope your tomorrow is a better day for all.



thenegotiator said:


> my apologies.
> i did not mean to demean the value.
> actually it is not ur trade?
> therefore why the comment?
> are you holding it?


----------



## thenegotiator

Addy said:


> Since it appears your questions are simply to start an argument I will ignore them and hope your tomorrow is a better day for all.


another sensitive guy.
oh my.
did u understand my quote man?
i simply asked if ur holding it?
i am not .atm.
i apologized to the OP.
do u want a cookie also?


my day tomorrow will be fine.
by the way i am not seeking an argument .
i am looking for opinions .
u take someone Else's trade and make a comment on it?
oh mein got.


----------



## Uranium101

thenegotiator said:


> another sensitive guy.
> oh my.
> did u understand my quote man?
> i simply asked if ur holding it?
> i am not .atm.
> i apologized to the OP.
> do u want a cookie also?
> 
> 
> my day tomorrow will be fine.
> by the way i am not seeking an argument .
> i am looking for opinions .
> u take someone Else's trade and make a comment on it?
> oh mein got.


People just jealous that you got a multi-million dollar portfolio lol


----------



## thompsg4416

thenegotiator said:


> how long are u going to hold it?
> 100 shares seems very little .


As Addy mentioned its all subjective $3400 is not a huge investment even for me but considering my whole TFSA is only 30k its enough. 

How long will I hold that is a good question - that will depend on the markets. At this point I don't consider it to be a core investment meaning i'm not really long - its more of a trade then an investment. I like to buy low and sell high(don't we all) and the sector and Barrick seem to to be trading fairly low at the moment. With a small dividend unless it totally tanks I'm prepared to hold as long as it takes to get my money out of it plus a good 10% return at a minimum. If the planets align and I can ride it for more of course I will. 

I envy the people with super large portfolio's. Perhaps someday I'll get there but until then.. Its 100 shares of Barrick!


----------



## thenegotiator

Uranium101 said:


> People just jealous that you got a multi-million dollar portfolio lol


U101 I wish it was a multimillion portfolio lol
either way the guy oe gal is sensitive.


----------



## thenegotiator

thompsg4416 said:


> As Addy mentioned its all subjective $3400 is not a huge investment even for me but considering my whole TFSA is only 30k its enough.
> 
> How long will I hold that is a good question - that will depend on the markets. At this point I don't consider it to be a core investment meaning i'm not really long - its more of a trade then an investment. I like to buy low and sell high(don't we all) and the sector and Barrick seem to to be trading fairly low at the moment. With a small dividend unless it totally tanks I'm prepared to hold as long as it takes to get my money out of it plus a good 10% return at a minimum. If the planets align and I can ride it for more of course I will.
> 
> I envy the people with super large portfolio's. Perhaps someday I'll get there but until then.. Its 100 shares of Barrick!


thom

it was a simple question .
nevertheless now i understand .
the valuation is deffinittely not bad and i wish ya luck.
may u double ur investment.
barrick already traded at much nigher prices.

i do not have a large portfolio by the way.
may i suggest one thing.
do not envy others.
cheers.


----------



## thompsg4416

thenegotiator said:


> thom
> may i suggest one thing.
> do not envy others.
> cheers.


My only true envy is your formatting. So you gonna spill the beans or what? Why are all your posts in funny formatting?


----------



## thenegotiator

thompsg4416 said:


> My only true envy is your formatting. So you gonna spill the beans or what? Why are all your posts in funny formatting?


traders are messy lol:biggrin:
specially NG traders.
have u ever been in a futures pit?
if u know somebody go take a look.
sometimes it gets really interesting around:biggrin:
besides i am an Israeli so what do ya expect?


----------



## thompsg4416

A touch off topic but I'm curious.. where are you trading natural gas and how? I've wanted to get in on it myself. I often trade one of those garbage leveraged funds (HNU) and have made quite a bit of money at it at least according to my standards. With about 2k I've made close to the same over the last 9 months. Only once or twice I've had to throw a couple extra K in there to avg down.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Uranium101 said:


> People just jealous that you got a multi-million dollar portfolio lol


He's never said that; in fact, he's told us many times that he does not have $1m yet, but he'll retire when he gets it, and live off the dividends. TN is many things, but not greedy [yet]. :biggrin:


----------



## thenegotiator

thompsg4416 said:


> A touch off topic but I'm curious.. where are you trading natural gas and how? I've wanted to get in on it myself. I often trade one of those garbage leveraged funds (HNU) and have made quite a bit of money at it at least according to my standards. With about 2k I've made close to the same over the last 9 months. Only once or twice I've had to throw a couple extra K in there to avg down.


cme
emini futures


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> He's never said that; in fact, he's told us many times that he does not have $1m yet, but he'll retire when he gets it, and live off the dividends. TN is many things, but not greedy [yet]. :biggrin:




T.gal
not greedy at all.
in fact like the old saying goes.
bulls make money , bears make money and CHAZIR'S get slaughtered.
i wish i had half million , let alone a million.
GL today.


----------



## cdnceo

31.85... time to buy?

52L 31.18
52H 50.27
P/E 9.426


----------



## dubmac

I have been watching this one - but haven't bitten yet - I simply don't understand gold stocks well enough.
I know that gold takes off when doom-sayers and inflation, war, rumours run rampant.
But this stock has me scatching my head - it is a company with 70% institutional ownership, low P/E, and it is nearing a 1 yr low.
Morningstar has a "consider buy" on it at $19.20.

As far as I can tell, it seems to be a good value stock - but is it?
Is inflation rising signficantly?, war or financial collapse foreseen? ..why buy it?


----------



## humble_pie

i'm a longtime barrick holder, strictly because among the world's giant golds it's handy to home & it's always had pricey options to sell.

however in recent years i would have preferred to have held goldcorp. GG (G in canada, but the liquid market is US) doesn't have barrick's troubling pascua lama overhang, which i don't see being resolved any time soon.

i've been morphing over to GG by selling puts but have not yet sold any ABX.

i also like small canadian producers or near-producers & here my pick is detour gold. I'm not sure why i made the decision last year to choose DGC over osisko, but for better or for worse, i did. I'm not married to detour yet but the relationship is nearing common-law. Supreme court has just ruled that quebec common-law partners have no rights each:


----------



## humble_pie

GG also has its valuable long-distance connection to the bill clinton/carlos slim of mexico/frank giustra troika. Their philanthropic foundation haha. Long convoluted story.

giustra is the reclusive vancouver financier who raised the capital for goldcorp & later chummed up w the US ex-pres. It was giustra & clinton who created the entity that became Uranium One. Long convoluted story :biggrin:


----------



## dubmac

HP: After reading your response about DGC and Osisko, I added both to my watch list - what did I see this morning? DGC up 7%! 
...sigh...


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> HP: After reading your response about DGC and Osisko, I added both to my watch list - what did I see this morning? DGC up 7%!
> ...sigh...



black mac i'm not one to lead you down the garden path. But puts in DGC are tempting. In july for example one could sell 5 july 20 puts for like, oh, 1.25 (mkt is 1.20-1.35 but number of bidders is increasing as DGC falls, so it's likely that one of them will raise.) 

1.25 = $625 less commish. It will be the easiest $625 you ever made said the snake in eden.


----------



## humble_pie

adjust the order up one increment


----------



## ban

"Barrick lost $3.06-billion (U.S.) in the three-month period, or $3.06 a share, unveiling a hit of $3.8-billion and disclosing higher costs at a Zambian copper mine."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...lion-copper-charge/article8657127/?cmpid=rss1
Oouch...


----------



## arc

trading on a huge discount today, bought 10 calls for Jan 2014 @$30


----------



## Squash500

arc said:


> trading on a huge discount today, bought 10 calls for Jan 2014 @$30


 What premium did you pay? Approx $35 per contract....or $350 total plus commissions. So therefore Barrick has to go up by approx 66% by January 2014 for you to get in the money? I guess you obviously bought these calls on the US options market.


----------



## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> black mac i'm not one to lead you down the garden path. But puts in DGC are tempting. In july for example one could sell 5 july 20 puts for like, oh, 1.25 (mkt is 1.20-1.35 but number of bidders is increasing as DGC falls, so it's likely that one of them will raise.)
> 
> 1.25 = $625 less commish. It will be the easiest $625 you ever made said the snake in eden.


I need to learn how to do this procedure Pie - still not knowledgeable/confident enough yet. I'll get there tho - maybe when summer comes and I get more time to do these things!


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> I need to learn how to do this procedure Pie ... maybe when summer comes



blackmac u are right except that summertime is too soon. DGC puts are dangerous right now for all but the foolhardiest. I had to roll me own into october 15s. Cost me 2 grand. Even so these are ditm so they are only the best of a very bad situation. Such are the life & times.

were you not among those buying ABX or talking of buying ABX in the 27-30 range just a few days ago, though? or maybe it was goldcorp? these days cmf forum is gravid w barrick & goldcorp bargain buyers ...


----------



## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> were you not among those buying ABX or talking of buying ABX in the 27-30 range just a few days ago, though? or maybe it was goldcorp? these days cmf forum is gravid w barrick & goldcorp bargain buyers ...


Yes (blushing now) - I confess my sin(s) - purchased 50 ABX at $25 as a tester - down 350 on that purchase. Thankfully, I have much more BCE in my TFSA to absorb the ugliness of red ink! I am not too wounded, but again, feeling humbled (sic) by my purchase..Thou *SHALT NOT *speculate...Thou *SHALL* invest. I feel like I should re-read that salient chapter in the book written by Ben Graham (Intellligent Investor?) Also - Pie...I assume you learn these details on ABX's operational fiasco's by reading and geting good information - not likely the kind they supply in an annual report tho..


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> I purchased 50 ABX at $25 as a tester - down 350 on that purchase ... I assume you learn these details on ABX's operational fiasco's by reading and geting good information - not likely the kind they supply in an annual report tho..



50 shares is a nice small affordable pilot project imho. In the long run you'll probbly be ok black mac. For starters i would have gone with goldcorp, though.

actually i don't read that much about barrick any more. I'm familiar with resource extraction - hydrocarbons, minerals - all over the planet & with all the political uproar that follows in its wake. Every country has variations of the story, but the basic story is always the same. 

it's one of the great stories of our times. Increasing populations mean increasing consumption. Most of the planet's easy surface-lying resources have already been extracted. Remaining deposits either lie deep or else in inhospitable terrain with no roads, sea access, water or hydroelectric power grid.

or else the host countries are now totally onto the $$$ value of what lies buried in their land & they are very assertively not allowing them furriners to come in & steal it, the way the furriners used to rob them even up to 10 years ago.

barrick's pascua lama story has several of these elements. Story has been well-known for 10-20 years.

many of the goldcorp mines are latin american tinder boxes as well.


----------



## fatcat

dubmac said:


> Yes (blushing now) - I confess my sin(s) - purchased 50 ABX at $25 as a tester - down 350 on that purchase. Thankfully, I have much more BCE in my TFSA to absorb the ugliness of red ink! I am not too wounded, but again, feeling humbled (sic) by my purchase..Thou *SHALT NOT *speculate...Thou *SHALL* invest. I feel like I should re-read that salient chapter in the book written by Ben Graham (Intellligent Investor?) Also - Pie...I assume you learn these details on ABX's operational fiasco's by reading and geting good information - not likely the kind they supply in an annual report tho..


you are climbing back to your purchase price along with a lot of other gold producers ... abx has blown a lot of trust but they have a nice dividend and i believe (but may be wrong) that gold producers are finally being decoupled and thus offer good diversification in a portfolio ... the producers have all gotten religion and are now attacking costs rather than increasing production


----------



## nakedput

why invest in the producers who have drastically underperformed for years when you can invest in the guys who supply the picks and shovels, and/or drillers (although very cylical industry)? A lot of these producers continue to throw good money after bad and invest in projects with a negative NPV. Attacking costs may work for a few quarters, but it is not a long term strategy to success and I do not find a good yield in ABX enough to be attractive enough to invest.


----------



## bflannel

~I got in @19.41~ 

Personal Opinion
I am bullish that they will figure out their current problems and are undervalued from too many negatives coming forward at once. A lot of their drop was due to emotion and I can't see it staying in this range forever. May not get much yield on it in the near future but long term I see no fault. :hopelessnesslease don't cut the dividend :hopelessness:

the facts
Historic lows on a company that shouldn't just disappear.


----------



## avrex

Barrick downgraded as many headwinds loom


----------



## james4beach

Oh god, what's all this talk here of the dividend. Are you guys seriously focusing on the 84 cents/year dividend for a stock that's declining at a rate of about $2 a MONTH?

Dividends are really no big deal and in this case it's a total non issue.


----------



## bflannel

I still feel good with this buy at that price. Buying on headwinds means you're on the boat for tailwinds. Better than jumping at a schooner going full missile. I'm more interested to see how Barrick turns around their books than I am the price of gold. Or their dividend for that matter, I don't want them to cut the dividend because major and minor shareholders are already fragile enough with the co.


----------



## humble_pie

it's pretty breathtaking, what's happened in chile. It almost makes one feel sorry for barrick. 

rarely has a multinational been hated as much as barrick has been hated, for as long as barrick has been hated. But astonishingly, the diaguita people of the valley won out over the furrin miner, all the way up to the president of the nation. For the time being, anyhow.

as james4 says, what's all this talk about the dividend. Surely the div is going to be history para la manana, they'll use it to pay the $16 million fine.


----------



## peterk

Ah man, hope I'm not insane.. Just bought more of this dog. ACB is at $17.79 and it's now my 3rd largest holding. Now where are those tailwinds, bflannel? :encouragement:


----------



## none

peterk said:


> Ah man, hope I'm not insane.. Just bought more of this dog. ACB is at $17.79 and it's now my 3rd largest holding. Now where are those tailwinds, bflannel? :encouragement:


I read an interesting post on reddit about gold. To summarize that basically the real utility of gold is quite minor (other cheaper alloys can do similar job) and there is of course it's use in tacky jewelry. Basically, gold is largely supported on perceived value and speculation and actually has very little foundational support and there isn't a huge reason that gold couldn't fall back down to <300 per oz. What do you folks think about that?


----------



## peterk

The same can be said for almost anything in this world that holds value, none, including all currencies. The conclusions that reddit is trying to make the reader come to is that gold is _extra_ risky since it has no "real" value. But unless you can show me something else that actually DOES have real value, the argument is facetious.

What has real value? Money? Only so much as we choose to give it (perceived value) Stocks? What percent of companies that exist today will still be traded in 200 years? Your house? That'll be crumbling to the ground in 50 years, 200 if it's built well...

I don't know what gold will be worth in 200 years, but I'm pretty sure it won't be zero. Can you say the same about much else in this world?


----------



## none

Sure the value of stocks has a dose of speculation in it for sure but companies make and sell things while gold is just a thing - who's value (argued by the redditor is mostly speculation and supported by poor fundamentals). 

What do you think is the minimum value of gold in the next 2 years?


----------



## humble_pie

oh god as james4 would say, what's all this about debating-the-eternal-value-of-gold.

won't you guys please be kind enough to stick eternal-value in another thread? pascua lama is on life support. There's a good chance barrick will walk on this. The way it walked on Reko Dicq in waziristan, silently, soundlessly, unnoticed, a few years ago. Save & except that the looming writedown on mina pascua could destroy the company.

some are saying that barrick colluded to spring the chile enviro blockage on itself so that it could walk away from mina pascua without inciting shareholder non-disclosure lawsuits. Or at least not too many of them.


----------



## james4beach

I have been looking at the ratio of the S&P 500 versus gold (same idea as Dow:gold ratio).

The ratio had a certain pattern that it diverged from in 2008 when the crisis started. Gold started getting overheated at that point. If now we get a reversion to the mean, back to typical stocks-vs-gold ratio preceding 2008, then I would give a gold target range of $800 to $1000 ... that's assuming a sideways or even weak S&P 500. The gold price should be higher if the S&P 500 keeps rising.

So that's my current T/A based most pessimistic estimate: $800 to $1000.

Of course, just like everything else in this market, it all depends on what the Federal Reserve does. Welcome to investment in the Bernanke world.


----------



## rknigh2

I'm looking at $800 as the bottom too. I just keep repurchasing abx puts. It has been great for a while now. There's no way for them to make enough at current costs to even pay down debt, not including the inevitable Chilean write down. A crises induced gold spike to 2000 is the only thing that could save them.


----------



## james4beach

Bloomberg: Barrick May Take $5.5 Billion Writedown on Pascua-Lama



> Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), the world’s biggest gold miner, may take a writedown of as much as $5.5 billion on its Pascua-Lama project in the Andes after the price of the metal plunged close to a three-year low.
> 
> Barrick is also likely to take other “significant” impairment charges for the second quarter as it reviews goodwill and other assets, the Toronto-based company said yesterday in a statement.


----------



## warp

peterk said:


> The same can be said for almost anything in this world that holds value, none, including all currencies. The conclusions that reddit is trying to make the reader come to is that gold is _extra_ risky since it has no "real" value. But unless you can show me something else that actually DOES have real value, the argument is facetious.
> 
> What has real value? Money? Only so much as we choose to give it (perceived value) Stocks? What percent of companies that exist today will still be traded in 200 years? Your house? That'll be crumbling to the ground in 50 years, 200 if it's built well...
> 
> I don't know what gold will be worth in 200 years, but I'm pretty sure it won't be zero. Can you say the same about much else in this world?


PERTERK,.............unless you are investing for your great-great-great-great-great-great grandchildren, what do you care what value something will have 200 years from now?

Personally, ( and I think for most people on this forum), I am concerned about what my investments will be worth in 1-3-5-10-20 years from now. trying to get that right is hard enough!


----------



## Islenska

What's that saying Buy Low sell high
Trouble is I have a ton of gold stuff so not jumping in
I remember though in 08 buying BNS and Vermillion, they are really up today from then
Gold has been a haven for many centuries, has to be a buy at some point soon
Actually would like to purchase some wafers/coins to salt away.

Thrilled today as our river (Carrot) has crested, so it is down hill from here and flooding will be a memory.............


----------



## bflannel

All of my disposable income just became accounted for but I am hoping by November I can buy in more at these prices. I must admit that barrick is a bit scary ATM but I'm getting over it.


----------



## nakedput

Barrick is scary as another poster said, but the current prices are 1990's prices. A lot of Barrick's production is in lower cost regions, but I feel with Munk still around (who was a superstar), the company is still wasteful. The company threw good money after bad, and I think if you are bullish on gold, then there must be better senior producers to look at, or the gold etf. The gold miners have consistently lagged the price of gold, so why should anyone be investing in them (whom as I alluded to, consistently throw money into very costly projects).


----------



## Spudd

Barrick announced a huge loss today and cut their dividend.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...whopping-loss-of-856-billion/article13544986/


----------



## peterk

Yikes! - Shutting down the Pascua Lama Mine and doing a share offering to pay debt.

Starting to not feel great about this one. Perhaps I should quit while I'm ahead...


----------



## humble_pie

peter you gits no sympathy now each: for how many years have folks been posting right here in cmf forum that pascua is a liability with not even a clear title, while goldcorp is the better choice among the big canadian gold producers (tiny brag, the pie was posting this.)

deeper than price-of-gold problems & pascua-lama-environmental problems, i think, go the issues of who is running barrick now, what is the state of peter munk's psychological health, plus there is also the little-known issue of the chilean/canadian pascua lama claims jumper.

jorge lopehandia, the vancouver-based claims jumper, does have well-known psychiatric problems, enough that canadian media have always written him off as a nutcase. However, in recent years at least one lower chilean court has sided with jorge's claim that he owns part of pascua lama.

cmf forum would need someone fluent in spanish - perhaps someone like toronto.gal - to monitor the santiago business news in order to get an accurate fix on how jorge's plaint is making its way up the chilean appeals ladder.


----------



## Asterix

Munk retiring. Good news?

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303763804579185862945409436


----------



## Asterix

Some nice gains in the last few days. What's everyone thoughts on ABX going forward?


----------



## underemployedactor

I think the bounce was due to Munk's long longed for retirement.


----------



## bflannel

I'd like to get in again at a below $16 level. I think there will be a few more times to get it at those numbers though.


----------



## noobs

Anybody jumping in?


----------



## atrp2biz

This has become a relatively large holding in my portfolio (6%) only behind BRK. I've purchased ABX at C$9.90 and C$15.80 and have sat on my hands since. It's now bumping up close to $25 after jumping 11% today and I feel the need to reallocate.

Why should gold go higher? What are your views on the USD and interest rates? Do you think a summer rate hike in the US if now completely off the table?


----------



## stantistic

*Show me the money*

A news item stated that American shareholders of Barrick Gold have recently won $140 million class action lawsuit against Barrick. The Canadian lawsuit has been stalled by fighting between two groups of lawyers over which group will get the cream of the damages while we shareholders are left with the lumps. This has been at a standstill since March, 2015. Are there any impatient CMFers out there ?


----------



## zylon

atrp2biz said:


> Why should gold go higher? What are your views on the USD and interest rates? Do you think a summer rate hike in the US if now completely off the table?


Eric Coffin has some ideas; yes, he's in the business, therefore biased; but still some good points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCo2Ww7tcZI


screenshot of one slide in his presentation (20 minutes)


imagehost


----------



## hollyhunter

A break of 25.97 could move it up to 30.33 in short term.


----------



## noobs

sold at 25.75.. I bought it at 19 a few months ago so I`m happy.


----------



## GizelleGizelle

52-Week High. June, 16. Barrick Gold (ABX) $21.40:rugby:


----------



## james4beach

This is an amazing rally but I'm still concerned that this isn't such a great performer.

The price of gold in CAD is exactly flat over the last 4 years, +0%
(illustrated here using IGT)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IGT.TO&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11956549178

That is, if you held gold bullion over the last 4 years, its value in CAD has remained constant.

However, in those 4 years ABX is -35%
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABX.TO&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20642484807


----------



## new dog

I prefer to hold streaming and royalty companies for my mining stock exposure.


----------



## humble_pie

.


stock was looking like a goner not long ago but these days the long-in-the-tooth miner is jauntily outskipping & outstripping its normally more efficient rival goldcorp. Something's up.

the superficial story is george soros & how he bought $264M in barrick stock during the first quarter of 2016, then dumped nearly all of it a few months later.

but the story behind the story may be barrick's little-known chairman John Thornton, an expert on asian finance. It was cmffer dubmac who introduced the idea, a couple of years ago, that ABX under Thornton was looking east towards china.

in retrospect dubmac's timing may have been early but eerily prescient. Thornton - head of Goldman's asia division in the 1990s - faculty member at Tsinghua university in beijing - last month was named chair of singapore financial conglomerate Silk Road Finance Corporation.

Silk Road is financing the 21st century rebirth of its namesake. This is a fast rail system being built to move chinese manufactured goods to europe in 3 weeks. Goods that presently take 3 months to sail around the cape of good hope (the ships are too big for the suez canal.)

russia is involved, of course. Western terminals for the silk road rail system could be situated in russia, turkey, even syria or ukraine. All unstable countries at present, but perhaps syria & ukraine are so far sunk in war that they should be taken off the list of reliable hosts for the western end of the new Silk Road.

which leaves turkey - also unstable - & russia. We can see the importance of the Black Sea & its ports. We can even see the importance to russia of invading crimea in order to secure its all-important naval base at sevastopol.


.


----------



## stantistic

*Appeal to Ontario Appeals Court*

 

Any CMFers with insider connections to the Appeals court? How about putting a buzz in their ear to end the spat between two groups of lawyers over which group will be the first in the trough in the Class action against Barrick? I, for one, sure could use a payout as balm for the shellacking I took in the 2011-13 period. See post # 123, this thread.


----------



## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> .
> but the story behind the story may be barrick's little-known chairman John Thornton, an expert on asian finance. It was cmffer dubmac who introduced the idea, a couple of years ago, that ABX under Thornton was looking east towards china.
> 
> in retrospect dubmac's timing may have been early but eerily prescient. Thornton - head of Goldman's asia division in the 1990s - faculty member at Tsinghua university in beijing - last month was named chair of singapore financial conglomerate Silk Road Finance Corporation.
> 
> Silk Road is financing the 21st century rebirth of its namesake. This is a fast rail system being built to move chinese manufactured goods to europe in 3 weeks. Goods that presently take 3 months to sail around the cape of good hope (the ships are too big for the suez canal.)
> 
> russia is involved, of course. Western terminals for the silk road rail system could be situated in russia, turkey, even syria or ukraine. All unstable countries at present, but perhaps syria & ukraine are so far sunk in war that they should be taken off the list of reliable hosts for the western end of the new Silk Road.
> 
> which leaves turkey - also unstable - & russia. We can see the importance of the Black Sea & its ports. We can even see the importance to russia of invading crimea in order to secure its all-important naval base at sevastopol.
> 
> .


interesting picture HP. I didn't connect (or even see!) all these dots. 
The new ABX board member that I was alluding to is Mike Evans - see here: http://quote.morningstar.ca/Quickta...&culture=en-CA&productcode=CAN&ops=clear&cur=
he is currently the president for Alibabba - yes..that Alibabba! http://www.wsj.com/articles/alibaba-group-names-michael-evans-as-president-1438682344
He brings a significant amount of experience having been the Head of Goldman Sachs Asian Dept. He was the leader during the past 10 years when Asia has been a grwoth leader. Needless to say, the man likely has many, many connections.

(...I checked into the reference to Silk Road Railroad out of curiosity. Fascinating stuff.http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2016/04/21/china-europe-silk-road-railway/
The article refers to China's compatibility with European Rails - "China will surpass the Russian railways in terms of preference due to their compatibility with European trains." As a schoolboy, I recall reading some history on Russia and the Tsar (Nicholas), who was responsible for changing the width of the Russian rails to prevent invasion from the east in the early 1900's. Who would have known that this decision (by the Tsar) would influence trade centuries later...
fascinating.)


----------



## humble_pie

^^



barrick has always had those silver hairs of distinction on its board. Folks like brian mulroney, idk if he's still a barrick director.

i have another wilder-still-&-wilder canadian connection to singapore & the Silk Road. It's that upstart BC company called Pacific Future Energy. The one that wants to set up railcar neatbit transport of alberta heavy crude to kitimat, where it wlll refine neatbit into a lighter form of crude whose shipment out of BC ports is permitted by the federal gummint.

in BC these days, there are 3 upstarts rabbiting on about new refinery proposals to ship alberta crude out of BC ports. Of the 3, only Pacific Future Energy appears to have financial backing (there are extensive cmf threads about this so i won't repeat here.)

it's difficult to discover who PFE's backers are but word says they are from singapore.

another ariadne's golden thread into this still-to-be-discovered labyrinth: SNC lavalin is the engineering firm contracted to develop the neatbit railcar technology for PFE. Now, SNC already has already had considerable railway success in asia. It was SNC that developed the very challenging engineering for the new china-tibet high speed train, for example.

where are we going with this golden thread in the minotaur? there's gold & plenty other resources in the himalayas. The vast himalayan mountain range - immediately to the north of the new railway Silk road - is the world's last greatest untouched reservoir of raw material wealth. It's said that afghanistan is mostly one valuable mountain mine or oil well stacked up next to another.

barrick, some might recall, had a giant copper mine planned at Reqo Dig in waziristan not long ago. In the heart of taliban country in northwestern pakistan. Reqo Dig was to be a joint venture with chile's antofagasta copper. But both western companies had to pull out when the local politics turned out to be so smokin dangerous hot. Waziristan is home to all the madrassahs. Not far from the Silk Road.

these are all plans for 20, 30, 50 years in the future.

SNC shares are booming btw.

.


----------



## humble_pie

stantistic said:


> ... which group will be the first in the trough in the Class action against Barrick? I, for one, sure could use a payout as balm for the shellacking I took in the 2011-13 period.



pascua lama? maybe a decision by 2025? after that it'll go to appeal though


----------



## humble_pie

dubmac said:


> I checked into the reference to Silk Road Railroad out of curiosity. Fascinating stuff.
> 
> http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2016/04/21/china-europe-silk-road-railway/
> 
> The article refers to China's compatibility with European Rails - "China will surpass the Russian railways in terms of preference due to their compatibility with European trains." As a schoolboy, I recall reading some history on Russia and the Tsar (Nicholas), who was responsible for changing the width of the Russian rails to prevent invasion from the east in the early 1900's. Who would have known that this decision (by the Tsar) would influence trade centuries later...




i didn't know about the russian railway gauge. It never seemed to affect the trans-Siberian express, though. Or other trains bound for russia in our times.

the Silk Road RR build today goes from china to kazakhstan. Would rail gauge prevent russia from serving as a western terminal? i doubt it. I'd expect russia to rebuild rail lines or construct high functioning gauge switches before they'd ever allow themselves to miss out on the business.

.


----------



## dubmac

There is an interesting article about Mike Evans & Alibaba - and the bigger objectives / plan that Alibaba has in China and in the world economy in the G&M today page B6. Interesting read.


----------



## stantistic

Further to post #135, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...k-in-silk-road-with-first-afghan-rail-freight . (Derail) not intended but pun is.


----------



## hollyhunter

The company is focused on the production of gold.As a result, of this strong relationship with gold, any movement we see in the price of commodity will likely lead to the exact same type of movement in ABX.

As oil continues back toward crisis mode, economic pressure will likely be added to developed nations. Because gold is a safe haven investment, this will likely lead to increased demand, leading to gains in the value of the precious metal and therefore, ABX.


----------



## humble_pie

stantistic said:


> Further to post #135, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...k-in-silk-road-with-first-afghan-rail-freight . (Derail) not intended but pun is.



thanks for the interesting link.

not much interest at present in the Silk Road railroad but it seems obvious that it will be a news maker in time.

syria with its mediterranean coastal ports will have to be one of the new Silk Road western terminals, just as it was in the time of the Phoenician traders, one would think. Another reason for russia to be active in syria at present. Russia is securing its right to be present at every syrian summit table. 

one would think that if ISIL knew what was good for them, they'd halt their wars, settle down & look out across the next century to see how much command they could build for themselves over the Silk Road system.

.


----------



## stantistic

Additional info on Silk Road

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/new-research-reveals-origins-of-the-ancient-silk-road/


----------



## humble_pie

stantistic said:


> Additional info on Silk Road
> 
> https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/new-research-reveals-origins-of-the-ancient-silk-road/





hey stantistic thankx for the link. Totally fascinating article.

rarely is the old adage that "history predicts the future" so perfectly illustrated as in the emerging Silk Road research. 

russia & china are the leader/drivers in the new Silk Road railway. Russia obviously intends to play the major controlling role in the western end of the new transcontinental rail system. Apparently via seaports in syria or on the black sea.

the prize for the new Silk Road? will be the vast untapped oil, gas & mineral resources buried in the himalayas. Soviet geologists & engineers explored many of these orebodies & petro deposits in the 60s & 70s. Also in siberia, mongolia & across northeastern asia ... the existence of canada's Kinross mine in siberia was probably not an accident, kinross historically has had close ties to barrick gold.

these are all emerging issues for the future, but already we can see how russia is moving to assert dominion over the future mining of the himalayas.

another region of the earth that is stuffed with untapped petro & mineral resources is canada's arctic. Global warming is making this vast region accessible. Russia has also indicated - with its recent increased military flyovers into or near canadian air space - that it is interested in our arctic north, if only to assert a right to transship through canadian arctic waters.

turning back again to the history of the ancient Silk Road, your article makes clear that this land route from china gradually fell out of use as the era of european ocean exploration dawned during the renaissance. From the 15th century onwards, sailing ships would be able to transport commodities faster than nomads & traders walking with their donkeys, horses & other pack animals across thousands of miles in asia & asia minor.

one can also see how arab civilization reached its height towards the end of the first millenium. The caliphs were sitting on the junction of the Silk Road trading route with the equally famous Swahili trading route up the east coast of africa, the route that brought african gold & spices to trade with vikings from the west & with eastern traders from Samarkand.

thankx again for the Ars Technica link, they're publishing a number of contemporary scholars who are excavating & reporting on the Silk Road story. Everything that is old is new again.

.


----------



## dubmac

http://www.mining.com/barrick-confirms-selling-half-of-veladero-pascua-lama-to-shandong-gold/
It took a while to happen, but Barrick has sold some of it's assets to a Chinese company.


----------



## james4beach

Buffett has turned bullish on gold, and bought 21 million shares of Barrick. It's the only position he added to his portfolio (while selling off his dividend stocks and banks)

Warren Buffett traded Goldman Sachs for gold in Berkshire Hathaway’s newly revealed portfolio


----------

