# Would like to get some POT



## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

What would be a good point to get into pot

Would like to start with a 1000 shares at the 22.00 mark

Should I stay away


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

Hmm, I have 500 shares at higher prices around $25.00 and waiting for it to break $20.00 before adding another 500 shares.
If it doesn't break $20.00 I'm happy holding my 500 shares at $25.00. Pretty sure share price will be higher sooner than later.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Just picked up 500 at 22.71

I will add another 500 or so


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## Ag Driver (Dec 13, 2012)

I have been frantically saving in hopes of a sub 22. I was really hoping I would go green on my goldcorp so I could dump and fund a large POT position.


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Hey 1980...

My play for Potash is with Western Potash Corp...

Its a MUCH better value play... 
At this point, you get their Milestone property bassically for free thanks to a new strategic Chinese investment...


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

WPX does not trade much

I am to close to retirement to go down that road,I still hold FM and LIQ

Going forward I need more trading volume,as in the passed I have lost a lot on small volume companys,my smallest volume trade is ruf.un,I think I am in around 6.39 I hold a few 1000 shares

so no more small volume trades for me

Thankyou for the tip


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Just post a trade for 22.52 for 1500 shares


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Understood...

Well just keep in mind POT will probably have to cut the dividend sometime in the future... 

The first time they did, the market reacted horribly, but lately the market is kind to responsible compagnys. So hard to predict how it will move.

I personally sold POT for WPX... But I have a very long horizon on this.


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## heyjude (May 16, 2009)

Since you can now grow your own, I wouldn't expect Pot stocks to soar.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/medical-marijuana-grow-allard-philpott-no-appeal-1.3506015


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## Ag Driver (Dec 13, 2012)

heyjude said:


> Since you can now grow your own, I wouldn't expect Pot stocks to soar.
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/medical-marijuana-grow-allard-philpott-no-appeal-1.3506015


Surely you know this thread is about Potash?


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## heyjude (May 16, 2009)

Ag Driver said:


> Surely you know this thread is about Potash?


I do, but the OP was ambiguous, so I was trying to make a point.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

...sniff..sniff... do I smell...POT?...


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## Ag Driver (Dec 13, 2012)

heyjude said:


> I do, but the OP was ambiguous, so I was trying to make a point.


Ah. Not entirely in this particular case as the title appears pretty clear. The thread is listed in individual stocks and the identifier "POT" was in fact used in the title. I'll give credit where credit is due. That being said....

I see you're point. Proper language and sentence structure is an integral part of a forum to ensure comprehension and seamless conversation throughout. Forums are simply a different host for peers to converse in. You wouldn't speak in broken English using part sentences and short form in person -- so why would you do so in a forum when typing is the ONLY form of communication and to ensure comprehension. Mr 1980 is appalling on this forum and more times than not, he appears to be incoherent. It is truly a struggle at the best of times to understand the piss poor sentence structure.

It really is unfortunate because I value his opinion, and feel that he is quite knowledgeable in finances. I feel as though he has a lot to offer ... but by the same token, I grow tired of the lack of interest or any attempt at forum etiquette.

1980, from one blue collar guy to another -- I'm a blue collar tradesman myself. I drive a farm tractor in the air for a living, and I have no formal education. 1980, please put forth some effort to illustrate your thoughts a bit better. I'm sure you can see the frustration from others on the board. It would be a shame to see you keep getting picked on and eventually leave again due to personal attacks .... but at this point, it is merely self induced. If you made an effort, the heyjude's of the world would probably lay off.


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## tkirk62 (Jul 1, 2015)

Thank you for stating it so diplomatically (from another blue collar guy) but it had to be said. Sometimes I think there might be insight in his posts but it's just so hard to tell.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

^^ Been there, done that, didn't accomplish anything. This forum is a free-for-all with zero moderation or enforcement of standards... Overall that's a net positive, though, IMO. I now embrace the 1980z28 "unique" form of communication.  Hope you can forgive, bud.

I've got some POT, seems like a good price now. If any of you are thinking about buying this for the juicy dividend though, I'd be careful. There's a very good chance that dividend is getting cut again in the near future. Still, I imagine this thing will be at least $40 ten years from now. Add in a 4% dividend return (currently 6%) and you're looking at a 10% annual return... Not shabby.


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## lost in space (Aug 31, 2015)

What is your goal, why are you buying, is it for capital gains for the dividend?

Pot is a commodity which means it's price will driven 100% by the price of potash. If it drops the stock will drop and the dividend will get cut, if it increases they will make more money, the stock price will go up and so will the dividend. In other words there is little the company can do.

I highly recommend reading the Contrarian Investor's 13 by Benj Gallander. It's one of the best investing books out there. I got it for a penny on Amazon plus shipping


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## LBCfan (Jan 13, 2011)

lost in space said:


> ......
> 
> Pot is a commodity which means it's price will driven 100% by the price of potash. ......


I'd say it's price will be driven 60ish% by potash price and the rest by phospate and amonia price. They are a major producer of 3 commodities, not one.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I think if you have a long-term focus, POT price now is good and will undoubtedly rise in the coming years.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

heyjude said:


> I do, but the OP was ambiguous, so I was trying to make a point.



first time i glimpsed this post i thought she was trying to make a joint


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Ag Driver said:


> I see you're point. Proper language and sentence structure is an integral part of a forum to ensure comprehension and seamless conversation throughout. Forums are simply a different host for peers to converse in. You wouldn't speak in broken English using part sentences and short form in person -- so why would you do so in a forum when typing is the ONLY form of communication and to ensure comprehension. Mr 1980 is appalling on this forum and more times than not, he appears to be incoherent. It is truly a struggle at the best of times to understand the piss poor sentence structure.



it's *your.* In this context, you'd be using the possessive adjective. What you've spelled out is a verb conjunction, though, a 2nd person plural conjugation of the verb "to be."

following which, we are treated to the 2nd blistering attack upon our friendly member from newfoundland within as many months. Both attacks are from young males in the forum, moreover. It something affecting you guys negatively these days? spring fever? cabin fever? 

me i can understand 1980 perfectly. He's speeded up his trading lately, though, so he's a bit less impressive to me. He seems to be flipping investments in $100k chunks every few days. As my greek/spanish speaking friends would say, Is No Very Good.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

I'd like some potash shares too, but somehow, it doesn't feel right yet. There seems to be some suspicion the dividend could be cut again. Payout ratios is very high, apparently. the valuation, according to some, is too high vis a vis the price of potash.


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## treva84 (Dec 9, 2014)

Pluto said:


> I'd like some potash shares too, but somehow, it doesn't feel right yet. There seems to be some suspicion the dividend could be cut again. Payout ratios is very high, apparently. the valuation, according to some, is too high vis a vis the price of potash.


The current pay out ratio is 100% of the 2016 predicted earnings, as per the corporate guidance. I suspect their earnings estimates are optimistic; even so with a 100% pay out ratio they don't leave themselves any buffer in the event earnings come in lower. Of course, they can always cite something like "tough current global economic conditions" or perhaps "lower than anticipated demand" or maybe even "unforeseen increases in production from competitors coupled with historically low potash prices" when they cut the dividend again.

With respect to valuation, the 5 year historical PE is 15.2 and currently the PE is 11.3 so it's at a roughly 25% discount from a PE point of view. There is certainly a lot of pessimism around this stock. 

Will it eventually rebound? Probably. Should management have cut the dividend even more? I think so and I think the fact that they didn't cut it further is a bigger red flag than the dividend cut itself. Would I buy it? No.


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## LBCfan (Jan 13, 2011)

Dividends are paid from cash flow. Earnings are not cash flow. They are good for a while.


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## Ag Driver (Dec 13, 2012)

humble_pie said:


> it's *your.* In this context, you'd be using the possessive adjective. What you've spelled out is a verb conjunction, though, a 2nd person plural conjugation of the verb "to be."
> 
> following which, we are treated to the 2nd blistering attack upon our friendly member from newfoundland within as many months. Both attacks are from young males in the forum, moreover. It something affecting you guys negatively these days? spring fever? cabin fever?
> 
> me i can understand 1980 perfectly. He's speeded up his trading lately, though, so he's a bit less impressive to me. He seems to be flipping investments in $100k chunks every few days. As my greek/spanish speaking friends would say, Is No Very Good.


If you're going to cherry pick grammar, at least lead by example. Maybe punctuation and capitals aren't your thing? 

It is a forum, and forums have etiquette. A modest effort is all I suggest. Know won will bee perfect, butt at least try.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

lost in space said:


> What is your goal, why are you buying, is it for capital gains for the dividend?
> 
> Pot is a commodity which means it's price will driven 100% by the price of potash. If it drops the stock will drop and the dividend will get cut, if it increases they will make more money, the stock price will go up and so will the dividend. In other words there is little the company can do.
> 
> I highly recommend reading the Contrarian Investor's 13 by Benj Gallander. It's one of the best investing books out there. I got it for a penny on Amazon plus shipping



http://www.insomniacpress.com/resources/978-1-897178-62-1_sampler.pdf


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

heyjude said:


> Since you can now grow your own, I wouldn't expect Pot stocks to soar.
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/medical-marijuana-grow-allard-philpott-no-appeal-1.3506015


With a 126 acres in total I will grow root crops


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> first time i glimpsed this post i thought she was trying to make a joint


Maybe when full retirement kicks in


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Ag Driver said:


> Ah. Mr 1980 is appalling on this forum and more times than not, he appears to be incoherent. It is truly a struggle at the best of times to understand the piss poor sentence structure.


Don`t waste your time on my grammar,as I can see your time picking out my spelling mistakes is a never ending task,I try as I can and use spell check,what you see is what you get


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> it's *your.* In this context, you'd be using the possessive adjective. What you've spelled out is a verb conjunction, though, a 2nd person plural conjugation of the verb "to be."
> 
> following which, we are treated to the 2nd blistering attack upon our friendly member from newfoundland within as many months. Both attacks are from young males in the forum, moreover. It something affecting you guys negatively these days? spring fever? cabin fever?
> 
> me i can understand 1980 perfectly. He's speeded up his trading lately, though, so he's a bit less impressive to me. He seems to be flipping investments in $100k chunks every few days. As my greek/spanish speaking friends would say, Is No Very Good.


Thanks hp enjoy your day

I paid out my leverage from house sale(300k)
Will sell second house within the next year(380k)so I will leverage up to that point plus my 3k monthly purchases
Retirement is April 2017 ,new house almost finished


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Ag Driver said:


> If you're going to cherry pick grammar, at least lead by example. Maybe punctuation and capitals aren't your thing?
> 
> It is a forum, and forums have etiquette. A modest effort is all I suggest. Know won will bee perfect, butt at least try.


It is not good to throw rocks


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

1980z28 said:


> With a 126 acres in total I will grow root crops


speaking of root crops how are the plans for a root cellar coming along? 

somewhere in a previous thread i posted a quote from american naturalist Walter Beebe Wilder saying how his grandfather's root cellar on an organic farm in Ohio had benefited from a simple ventilator mechanism (ie not powered by electricity) installed through the thick wooden door plus 2 ventilation shafts up through the small hilltop that sat above the root cellar.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> speaking of root crops how are the plans for a root cellar coming along?
> 
> somewhere in a previous thread i posted a quote from american naturalist Walter Beebe Wilder saying how his grandfather's root cellar on an organic farm in Ohio had benefited from a simple ventilator mechanism (ie not powered by electricity) installed through the thick wooden door plus 2 ventilation shafts up through the small hilltop that sat above the root cellar.


On the property I have a root seller from 2 hundred years ago,it has collapsed many years ago,i was inform by a long time resident that it was used for a root cellar and that i can rebuild it,the vent in the door is a great idea,i will also be able to donate a portion of the crops to the food bank and family

House almost finished

Builders risk insurance is expensive ,will be glad when I only pay homeowner insurance


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i can't resist asking, Surely you're going to grow more than just root crops?

the onset of sunny spring weather makes me dream of lucious rows of chards, broccolis, lettuces, asparagus, heritage tomatoes. A south-facing herb garden basking in the warmth of a low stone wall on its north or windward side. A few apple trees. Could you grow a pear tree? 

then there are the berries. Wild strawberries & raspberries grow well & berry heavily by the ocean in the gaspésie, how would they do in newfoundland which might be a couple degrees colder. 

it's only 8:32 am & already i am killing myself with thoughts of fresh-caught grilled atlantic fish for lunch. Tomatoes with chopped basil in olive oil. Strawberries in crème fraiche. Pouilly fumé.



.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Ag Driver said:


> If you're going to cherry pick grammar, at least lead by example. Maybe punctuation and capitals aren't your thing?



me i think my punctuation is good, thank you. As for capitalization, it's true i don't capitalize the first letter of a new paragraph. So? ceci n'est pas la fin du monde. This is just a casual chat forum here, not a doctoral dissertation defence. One of the great things about the english language is that - unlike french - it is continuously evolving in real time.

please don't pontificate about forum etiquette when you have violated this so fiercely as to call our homestaking newfoundland friend "appalling" & then scold him for no reason.

isn't ignoring posters a universal netiquette? this option is always available to you, perhaps you might consider it.

as i say, spring fever must have gotten into one or two of the otherwise-cheery young bucks in the forum.


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

humble_pie said:


> i can't resist asking, Surely you're going to grow more than just root crops?
> 
> the onset of sunny spring weather makes me dream of lucious rows of chards, broccolis, lettuces, asparagus, heritage tomatoes. A south-facing herb garden basking in the warmth of a low stone wall on its north or windward side. A few apple trees. Could you grow a pear tree?
> 
> ...


Very descriptive Humble! Reminded me how Russell Crowe aka Maximus describes his home in the movie Gladiator! lol

Marcus Aurelius: Yet you have never been there. You have not seen what it has become. I am dying, Maximus. When a man sees his end... he wants to know there was some purpose to his life. How will the world speak my name in years to come? Will I be known as the philosopher? The warrior? The tyrant...? Or will I be the emperor who gave Rome back her true self? There was once a dream that was Rome. You could only whisper it. Anything more than a whisper and it would vanish... it was so fragile. And I fear that it will not survive the winter. Maximus, let us whisper now, together, you and l. You have a son. Tell me about your home.

Maximus: My house is in the hills above Trujillo. A very simple place. Pinkstones that warm in the sun. A kitchen garden that smells of herbs in the day, jasmine in the evening. Through the gate is a giant poplar. Figs, apples, pears. The soil, Marcus- black. Black like my wife's hair. Grapes on the south slopes, olives on the north. Wild ponies play near my house. They tease my son. He wants to be one of them.

Love that movie


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

jollybear said:


> Marcus Aurelius: Tell me about your home.
> 
> Maximus: My house is in the hills above Trujillo. A very simple place. Pinkstones that warm in the sun. A kitchen garden that smells of herbs in the day, jasmine in the evening. Through the gate is a giant poplar. Figs, apples, pears. The soil, Marcus- black. Black like my wife's hair. Grapes on the south slopes, olives on the north. Wild ponies play near my house. They tease my son. He wants to be one of them.



immortal words! thank you

this is the dream home, the land of heart's desire. I think this is why 1980's story is so fascinating. Building a house with his own hands, in a wild & beautiful setting, looking out over the atlantic ocean, gradually cultivating a garden full of fruits, flowers & vegetables, giving some away each year to friends & neighbours. A little eden.


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

Agreed.....sounds like 1980Z28 has worked hard with his hands his entire life and is getting ready for a happy and financially secure retirement. Very appreciative that he shares his actions with this group.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

LBCfan said:


> Dividends are paid from cash flow. Earnings are not cash flow.


clarify please. does this mean after dividends are paid they still expect net earnings in 2016?


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

jollybear said:


> Agreed.....sounds like 1980Z28 has worked hard with his hands his entire life and is getting ready for a happy and financially secure retirement. Very appreciative that he shares his actions with this group.


Well said. I've been here only a short time, but enjoy everyone's posts. Sometimes Z28's posts are a bit like crossword puzzle for my brain. It can use the workout.)


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> i can't resist asking, Surely you're going to grow more than just root crops?
> 
> the onset of sunny spring weather makes me dream of lucious rows of chards, broccolis, lettuces, asparagus, heritage tomatoes. A south-facing herb garden basking in the warmth of a low stone wall on its north or windward side. A few apple trees. Could you grow a pear tree?
> 
> ...


I am on the ocean,crab,lobster,mussels on the door step,as a kid we would have boil ups on the beach,lots
Atlantic fish,fill your nets when is season,lots of fishery rules now in play,tasy=te much nicer than fram feed fish IMO
Will build a hothouse for tomatoes peppers and such
Berries,can pick bakeapple, blueberries,partridge,straw and dogberries for pies ,jam and wine lots as they grow everywhere pick away


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

jollybear said:


> Agreed.....sounds like 1980Z28 has worked hard with his hands his entire life and is getting ready for a happy and financially secure retirement. Very appreciative that he shares his actions with this group.


Remember I just got a new tractor,so I can did holes and fill back in

Small but will work for me and still fit into garage B26TLB


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## LBCfan (Jan 13, 2011)

Pluto said:


> clarify please. does this mean after dividends are paid they still expect net earnings in 2016?


It's basic accounting. Many non-cash items are used to calculate earnings. Depreciation is one you may understand. Cash flow is just that, cash in minus cash out. In a corporate environment, they are never equal.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

humble_pie said:


> immortal words! thank you
> 
> this is the dream home, the land of heart's desire.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heart's_Desire,_Newfoundland_and_Labrador


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## jollybear (Jun 28, 2015)

1980z28 said:


> Remember I just got a new tractor,so I can did holes and fill back in
> 
> Small but will work for me and still fit into garage B26TLB


A Kubota and a sweet Z28 Camaro........that`s a good looking garage!


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

jollybear said:


> A Kubota and a sweet Z28 Camaro........that`s a good looking garage!




Thankyou


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## DividendPlanet.com (Mar 28, 2016)

I would wait until POT came down to the lows of January, at about 21. This would give you a starting yield of 6.7% which is a very good starting yield. Especially if is they can raise it once the potash prices start to recover.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

1980z28 said:


> Just picked up 500 at 22.71
> 
> I will add another 500 or so


500 at 21.86


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## Gunstar (Nov 8, 2011)

450 @ 21.75. 

This could be interesting!


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## osman3500 (Apr 2, 2016)

DividendPlanet.com said:


> I would wait until POT came down to the lows of January, at about 21. This would give you a starting yield of 6.7% which is a very good starting yield. Especially if is they can raise it once the potash prices start to recover.


Unless they cut the dividend again which is very much possible with the way earnings are..


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

For some reason, I'm not that excited about this one.


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

al42 said:


> Hmm, I have 500 shares at higher prices around $25.00 and waiting for it to break $20.00 before adding another 500 shares.
> If it doesn't break $20.00 I'm happy holding my 500 shares at $25.00. Pretty sure share price will be higher sooner than later.


well I couldn't wait and bought another 500 shares at $20.50 and now watching it go lower!!
Guess I should have waited.


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## AMABILE (Apr 3, 2009)

i'm so tempted to buy also
but waiting for earnings april 28
hopefully buy well below $20.00


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## Tawcan (Aug 3, 2012)

Very tempted to buy some more POT but will probably wait for the earning first. If it drops below $20 who knows how low it'll go.


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## mreconomic (Apr 13, 2016)

If they pay dividend i guess it is smart to wait...


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## treva84 (Dec 9, 2014)

Tawcan said:


> Very tempted to buy some more POT but will probably wait for the earning first. If it drops below $20 who knows how low it'll go.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...on-weak-crop-nutrient-prices/article29781667/

I see a dividend cut coming next quarter.


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## hboy43 (May 10, 2009)

treva84 said:


> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...on-weak-crop-nutrient-prices/article29781667/
> 
> I see a dividend cut coming next quarter.


At $22, seems to be trading like it is not a commodity and has a competitive moat. If TCK.B can end up under $10, I think POT can too.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Last I heard it had a 140% payout ratio. Is that really true? Scary.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Scary?
Yeah you guys are definitely scaring me a bit with this talk, but I can't see this one being a loser long-term.

It's not like there's an alternative to the basic 3 nutrients for plant life to grow, and people aren't gonna stop eating food.

Thought I added for the last time at $20.42, but if it went to $10 as hboy43 suggests might be possible, I'd definitely be adding again on the way down.


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## Hippie (Mar 2, 2016)

I was all ready to jump on some in the $20.xx's after todays ER.....but that ain't happening either.


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## Ag Driver (Dec 13, 2012)

I'm ready to deploy some cash for 100 shares. I'd like to see it go a bit further down yet. Not sure if this is it, or if I should wait for the potential divvy cut.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

I'd wait for a divvy cut personally. I still dunno about this one. Doesn't seem all that cheap right now.


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## rl1983 (Jun 17, 2015)

Doesn't look like they cut the dividend at all.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

1) the price did not react too badly on the bad news, indicating most of the weak holders are gone. That's a plus. 
2) Management's reasoning that they can sustain the dividend isn't clear to me. They established the present dividend based on higher earnings that are not unfolding as expected. They cut their guidance significantly but not the dividend. Story doesn't add up. That's a negative. 

I think I'll pass for now.


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## pastorash (Feb 3, 2014)

I'm happy to have a few shares in POT and will hold on to them for, I hope, quite a while. I expected it to be rough, and it may still be for a few years but I beleive things will straighten out by 2020 at the latest. Overly optimistic? Perhaps. But as others have said they have a strong hold on a needed commodity and these are short term waves. Settle in for the long haul.


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## rl1983 (Jun 17, 2015)

Closed at 21.47 today...


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## hollyhunter (Mar 10, 2016)

POT.TO Base on the P/E, which currently stands at 12.11, it is undervalued. Waiting for the buying signal.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

^

Well if guidance on earnings for later this year is accurate, the p/e will go up even if the price does not change. 
I suppose Mr. Market for POT is looking beyond that, or looking at the current yield thereby keeping the price > 20.5

I still don't get the reported 140% payout ratio + lower earnings expectations = everything is wonderful message from management. What am I missing?


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## Ag Driver (Dec 13, 2012)

hollyhunter said:


> POT.TO Base on the P/E, which currently stands at 12.11, it is undervalued. Waiting for the buying signal.


What signal are you specifically looking for?


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## cdnceo (Apr 3, 2012)

Ag Driver said:


> What signal are you specifically looking for?


VectorVest confirmed up


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## LBCfan (Jan 13, 2011)

Pluto said:


> ^
> 
> 
> I still don't get the reported 140% payout ratio + lower earnings expectations = everything is wonderful message from management. What am I missing?


Free Cash Flow


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