# 2017 Predictions Contest



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The predictions contest is on again!

The averages of all predictions were pretty close for the GOLD:
Median 1124
Average 1100
Actual 1169

The rest of the averages were wildly pessimistic with a few notable exceptions!
Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on Dec 31, 2017 in the following format:

DOW: 
TSX: 
GOLD: 
OIL: 
CAD: 

with the dollar amounts in USD. I am giving us all an extra week this year. Lord knows we need it.

Deadline for entry is January 16th at 9:30 am EST. Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before then. Good luck and happy investing.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Too funny....I just mentioned/asked where this was kcowan  Thanks for running (again)!


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

I was first to enter guesses for 2016 and did *okay*, so let's see if the trend continues....

DOW: 21,000
TSX: 13,850
GOLD: 1422
OIL: 62.50
CAD: 0.675


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

I'll play. 

DOW: 19150
TSX: 17750
GOLD: 1272
OIL: 63
CAD: 0.72


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## mordko (Jan 23, 2016)

DOW: 21,880
TSX: 13,780
GOLD: $1,028
OIL: $55
CAD: $0.67

^this will be wide off the mark


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

(when) will 2016 winners be announced?


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## nortel'd (Mar 20, 2012)

I predict
DOW: 21800
TSX: 17000
GOLD: 1150
OIL: 55
CAD: 0.72


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Dow: 21200
tsx: 17100
gold: 1200
oil: 65
cad: 0.75


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

jargey3000 said:


> (when) will 2016 winners be announced?


Sometime over the weekend.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

TY


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Dow: 22,000
tsx: 17,000
gold: 1200
oil: 60
cad: 0.75

Who mucked around with the forum so that I can't capitalize these words?


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Dow: 21,000
tsx: 15,000
gold: 1150
oil: 51
cad: 0.73


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

Dow: 18,600
Tsx: 15,100
Gold: 1,180
Oil: 59
Cad: 0.78


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Dow: 16101
tsx: 14101
gold: 1101
oil: 50.10
cad: .501


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## tombiosis (Dec 18, 2010)

Dow: 18360
tsx: 14800
gold: 1298
oil: 64.50
CAD: 0.82


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## new dog (Jun 21, 2016)

Dow: 15,000
TSX: 15,500
Gold: 1450
Oil: 58
CAD: .80


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## DesignerDee (Apr 10, 2013)

Here are my guesses for 2017:

DOW: 19,600
TSX: 16,700
GOLD: 1210
OIL: 73.50
CAD: 81.87


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## Woz (Sep 5, 2013)

DOW: 22,000
TSX: 16,050
Gold: 1,180
Oil: 62
Cad: 0.72


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Dow: 22,300
tsx: 17,100
gold: 1080
oil: 57
cad: 0.695


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## mars (Mar 11, 2014)

Dow: 21,000
TSX: 17,500
Gold: 1,350
Oil: 60
Cdn: 0.79


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Dow: 20331
TSX: 16112
Gold: 1078
Oil: 71
Cdn: 0.83


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## NorthKC (Apr 1, 2013)

Dow: 22500
tsx: 18124
gold: 1602
oil: 81
cad: 0.62


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## Steve Divi (Jul 14, 2016)

Dow: 21650
tsx: 16640
gold: 1344
oil: 61.22
cad: .74


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## stantistic (Sep 19, 2015)

Dow: 19300
tsx: 15500
gold: 1250 
oil: 48
cad: 0.85


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## welsh-investor (Jan 5, 2017)

Dow: 21,050
tsx: 16,000
gold: 1150
oil: 67.00
cad: 0.71


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## explorer416 (Jun 11, 2010)

Since no one is bragging on my behalf, I will take this opportunity to highlight to everyone that I finished in 2nd place in the 2016 prediction contest!! Woo-hoo! I was the very best of all the losers.

Here are my picks for 2017. Good luck to all (except for 2016 winner tombiosis). 

DOW: 22,530
TSX: 16,511
GOLD: $1,301
OIL: $66.67
CAD: $0.7221


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## rgz (Jan 14, 2017)

Dow: 22,250
tsx: 18,000
gold: $1,400
oil: $75.00
cad: $0.82


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Reminder that your guesses are due by 9:30 EST Monday. Modifications are also allowed but reference your original post so I know.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Just under the wire this time; thanks for the reminder 

DOW: 19650
TSX: 15200
GOLD: 1215
OIL: 57
CAD: 0.765


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

I noticed that on Financial Wisdom Forum, people were suggesting we switch from the DJIA to the S&P500 in next year's contest.

Sounds good to me if you're agreeable here too, as the DOW is a kind of funky outdated system imho, and the S&P500 is more representative of the broader market. Just a suggestion.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Dow: 14,000
tsx: 10,500
gold: $1,600
oil: $52
cad: $0.68


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

DOW: 21765
TSX: 16123
GOLD: 1307
OIL: 63.3
CAD: 0.875

edit? why converting to lower case here?


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

DOW: 22450
TSX: 17450
GOLD: 1200
OIL: 65
CAD: 82

Thanks kcowan


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Postby kcowan » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:22 am

My guesses for 2017 are:
DOW 22550
TSX 17100
GOLD 1300
OIL 52.8
CAD .75
and we will switch to the S&P next year.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

OK the entries for 2017 are now closed. I will publish the initial lineup later today.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Initial standings:
Current results

Please report any errors here. Thanks.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Owing to a change in Shaw Cable removing their webspace without giving any discount on their service, I am moving the result posting as follows:

Current results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

mrPPincer is the early leader.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

#2 though the year is not over yet...:smile:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Updated results link:

Current results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

No change to the leader. Cannot change the file.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

dumbac is the new leader after correcting my data entry error. Congratulations!


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Hi kcowan...
I think there was a mix-up in the data entry of my predictions for 2017. Your spreadsheet has recorded (in error) as predicting the DOW at 2100, when my prediction (page 2 this thread) was 21000. 
any chance for this to get fixed. Don't want to be a bother, but do I enjoy the thrill of the chase and all - I appreciate your management of this fun activity.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Just to make it interesting I'd like to put up a 50 peso MX prize for 1st place!


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

kcowan said:


> No change in leadership again.


Yeee Hahh


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

dubmac said:


> my prediction (page 2 this thread) was 21000.
> any chance for this to get fixed. Don't want to be a bother.


no bother at all, your ranking jumped 25 places and you are the new leader. Congratulations! 

Wait for it to show up due to caching.

Current results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Eder said:


> Just to make it interesting I'd like to put up a 50 peso MX prize for 1st place!


Actually we should add a forecast of MXP to the contest. It has been on the increase thanks to Trump.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

Congrats dubmac!


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

kcowan said:


> no bother at all, your ranking jumped 25 places and you are the new leader. Congratulations!
> 
> Wait for it to show up due to caching.


Thanks kcowan...
& thanks MrPincer for congrats...rarely do I get to bathe in the glory of a number 1 ranking so I want to make it last, at least for a month!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

dubmac again for April


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## stantistic (Sep 19, 2015)

*Tickled mauve*

I would have been tickled pink had I not been shaded by dubmac. All hail the new leader. :encouragement:


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

stantistic said:


> I would have been tickled pink had I not been shaded by dubmac. All hail the new leader. :encouragement:


..mercy. (blushing):redface:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

After transcription errors were corrected, dubmac again! If he holds until YE we will all remain rich! Yeah!


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

Wow, I got gold exactly right this month! I'm such a good predictor.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Be careful! There is someone lurking in 3rd place waiting to make their move.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Be careful! There is someone lurking in 3rd place waiting to make their move.


yipe.:nevreness:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

No change again, values holding!


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

kcowan said:


> No change again, values holding!


...barely. Higher dollar forecasters and lower oil forecasters may have their predictions come true soon....


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

No change in 3rd place!
Oh yea and dubmac continues.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Finally some action!

stantistic takes the lead.

and kcowan moves into second place!


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Congrats Stan & Kcowan. 
The lead is in good hands...
"It is with failing hands I pass the torch to thee"



kcowan said:


> Finally some action!
> 
> stantistic takes the lead.
> 
> and kcowan moves into second place!


​


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Current results

Bumping, current so I don't have to scroll back too far....


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## stantistic (Sep 19, 2015)

Thanks dubmac.
And special thanks to kcowan for the work of maintaining this thread.
And in the vein of acceptance speeches, on this momentous occasion in my life, I will borrow someone's words - "Uneasy lies the sceptred head ...."


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

At least I'm close to last. :biggrin:


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

stantistic said:


> Thanks dubmac.
> And special thanks to kcowan for the work of maintaining this thread.
> And in the vein of acceptance speeches, on this momentous occasion in my life, I will borrow someone's words - "Uneasy lies the sceptred head ...."


Hmm, some looser fitting pants perhaps? :cower:


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

The year isn't over yet, and I've moved up two spots -- I'm coming for you.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

A change in leadership as we enter the last quarter! 
New leader is, ahem: kcowan 

Looking for stantastic...3rd place.
dubmac holds onto second place.


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## stantistic (Sep 19, 2015)

What can I say but 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hail_to_the_Chief


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

No change to leadership this month. Two months to go!

Runners up are nortel'd and Argonaut.

Latest results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan hangs on to the lead as we round the corner into the home stretch, with a reduced accuracy of only 5.4% and with Argonaut and mrPPincer in hot pursuit.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

way to go kcowan...(I sprinted too soon!)


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Excellent - Defending my place from last year I believe. Don't even think about knocking me off beaver101!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ LOL!!! ...oh yeah, then you better watch it or I better watch NorthKC first.


Good going Keith!


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

Crazy that no one really came close on their DOW prediction. The closest one is almost 2000 points under.
Our average guess is pretty darn close for all the other categories.

kcowan - how did the average/medians do for previous years, compared to actual? Maybe crowdsourcing these predictions results in a pretty accurate guess since you incorporate all viewpoints in to the average.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The final results are in and mars is the winner with gardner and Steve Divi as runners up. Congratulations to the winner and see you all next year. Keith

Final results for 2017


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Congrats to the new winners! 

Hey peterk, you held your spot. Rats.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Wow, I wound up closer than I thought I might. A little too optimistic on the $CAN rate and oil. We'll see about next year.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Congrats mars!! Thanks for running again Keith!!


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Beaver101 said:


> Congrats to the new winners!
> 
> Hey peterk, you held your spot. Rats.


Right on!

Going bullish for the 2018 contest.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I think we need to pay attention to peterk. He seems to know something?


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

kcowan said:


> I think we need to pay attention to peterk. He seems to know something?


Oh sure. Just look at my big fat TFSA at $51,000 lol. :rolleyes2:

Although I suspect you may be suggesting to pay attention to do the opposite of what I do...which is excellent advice. :biggrin:


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## mars (Mar 11, 2014)

Thanks for running the contest, it was fun and my investing results basically followed how I did in the contest. Was slow starting, okay through most of the year, and had a good kick to finish. No pressure for 2018.


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