# Phase 3, the FINAL phase.



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Ontario will enter Phase 3 of re-opening this Friday. As with the previous phases of re-opening, people will no doubt immediately start thinking about when the next phase will happen. But there is NO phase 4. Phase 3 is the final phase until there is a cure or a vaccine for Covid-19.

There may be some tweeking of the Phase 3 requirements, there may (probably) be some roll backs in some cases, etc. but generally speaking, this is it, the 'New Normal' from now on. I think there are many people who don't realize that yet and expect that there will be a Phase 4 date when everything will be back to 100% 'normal'. There is no such plan for a Phase 4.

Each Province has their own rules of course but they are all much the same.


https://www.ontario.ca/page/reopening-ontario-stages



So anything that is not allowed in Phase 3 will be allowed when? The answer is not until there is a cure or vaccine. 

So what do you think the likely outcomes of all this will be in regards to various types of business and our everyday lives as we have lived them in the past? 

For example, major sports is going to start up again but without fans in the stadiums and arenas. Can they survive over the long term without all those ticket sales and merchandising sales that make them money? Or will they be like a 3 legged stool with one leg missing? Are they doomed to go broke and out of business if no viable vaccine or cure is found for several years?

Can even a simple business like a restaurant, any restaurant, survive over the longer term if they have to maintain physical distancing and thus be limited to say 50% of their former business?

Can a business like London, Ontario's Storybook Gardens survive?








Home


Welcome to Storybook Gardens. Whisk your family away to a magical place in London Ontario where nursery rhymes and fairytales come to life and adventure begins.




www.storybook.london.ca




It would normally be full of kids every day now. It can't open under Phase 3 as is the case for all kinds of similar businesses. 

It's fine to say businesses can now open with limits but that doesn't mean they can survive within those limits and it doesn't mean our lives will be the same as before at all.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Longtimeago said:


> Ontario will enter Phase 3 of re-opening this Friday. As with the previous phases of re-opening, people will no doubt immediately start thinking about when the next phase will happen. But there is NO phase 4. Phase 3 is the final phase until there is a cure or a vaccine for Covid-19.
> 
> There may be some tweeking of the Phase 3 requirements, there may (probably) be some roll backs in some cases, etc. but generally speaking, this is it, the 'New Normal' from now on. I think there are many people who don't realize that yet and expect that there will be a Phase 4 date when everything will be back to 100% 'normal'. There is no such plan for a Phase 4.
> 
> ...


Call it phase 3, phase 3 with changes (actual phase 4), phase 3a or whatever ... there will be ongoing modifications to existing plans or new plans created.

The back to the "old normal" will likely take significant time (a year if we're lucky), as in worldwide cases have fallen to zero for multiple incubation periods and/or a vaccine or highly effective treatment is found.


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## Thal81 (Sep 5, 2017)

The new normal sucks. Just saying.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

It does suck, but it prepares us for what may come in the future, even after a vaccine for this particular virus is found.

If another virus comes along, authorities have a better idea of what to do and when to do it.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

cainvest said:


> Call it phase 3, phase 3 with changes (actual phase 4), phase 3a or whatever ... there will be ongoing modifications to existing plans or new plans created.
> 
> The back to the "old normal" will likely take significant time (a year if we're lucky), as in worldwide cases have fallen to zero for multiple incubation periods and/or a vaccine or highly effective treatment is found.


I think you are saying you are one of those who thinks we will go back to 100% cainvest before a cure or vaccine is available. We will not, not even if there are zero cases reported world wide for a month in a row or more. This is it, it will not change in any appreciable way till there is a vaccine or cure, there will be no 'or'. A small tweek perhaps here and there but for example a stadium will never be allowed to open and fill its seats with fans. 

Just as they did going into this, the government at all levels will spoon feed us coming out of this. They aren't going to stand up and say, 'don't expect to go to a baseball game for the foreseeable future and by that I mean for YEARS'. They won't be that direct but if you listen carefully you will hear the message being given already.

Ontario actually announced 3 Phases back in late April and within Phase 2, various 'stages'. So right now, Ontario is entering Phase TWO, stage 3. The actual statement made on this Phase 2, stage 3 states, " _This ongoing gradual assessment of public health measures will continue until the post-pandemic period when a vaccine or treatment for COVID-19 is available.”_

Only after a cure or vaccine is found, will we enter PHASE 3 which is defined as the 'Recovery Phase.' Even at that point they are talking about things still being a 'new normal', not back to the 'old normal'. So if you listen, what they are saying is there will NEVER be a point at which we go back to the 'old normal', there will only be a 'new normal' which will be DIFFERENT than before.

_ Ontario unveils steps to reopen. Here's what the 'new normal' will look like_


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## Mukhang pera (Feb 26, 2016)




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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Longtimeago said:


> I think you are saying you are one of those who thinks we will go back to 100% cainvest before a cure or vaccine is available. We will not, not even if there are zero cases reported world wide for a month in a row or more.


If woldwide active cases go to zero for months there is no medical reason not to go back to the old normal.


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## calm (May 26, 2020)

I think that Ford is simply attempting to show that he is working hard ...... but in truth, this Phase III will force the Province to reverse course back to phase I (Not II) before September. This reversal will also allow Ford to reverse the back to school plans as well.
.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

I was laid off in March due to COVID from a place of worship (church) that seats around 1300 at max capacity. Currently we are permitted 30% of occupancy and then when you take into account physical distancing they have decided its not financially possible to re-open. My take is I will not be recalled back to work until a vaccine or treatment is in place. The CERB can only go on so long and who knows after that with the various suggestions being tossed around. So with this Final stage then specific reopenings going forward will be few and far between for a while. But on a positive note we have opened up one half of the building to allow local charity organizations to feed the homeless in our city. They feed about 700 meals each day in various locations and all meals are prepared by a real chef in our commerical kitchen. All of the regular locations for the needy to go to have been basically shutdown due to size restraints inside so something needed to be done. Daily and sometimes more food pickups are done from our local Costco who has an agreement with the parties involved to give all of their food that would normally be discarded. It is processed by many people before being sent out for others.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> So anything that is not allowed in Phase 3 will be allowed when? The answer is not until there is a cure or vaccine.


I hate to have to keep bringing it up, but what about the fact that there is no cure, there is no vaccine, and there are serious concerns that an effective vaccine might not be possible?

The issue right now is that it looks like the vaccines might only offer short term protection. 

I don't think the general population will accept an indefinite shutdown, even now more people are shifting to enough is enough. In most areas there are only a handful of new cases a day, if any.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

We may end up having to get a needle each year like the flu shot, who really knows.


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## twa2w (Mar 5, 2016)

Don't forget that it is possible for this virus to mutate out of existence. 

Many plagues eventually run through the population and disappear entirely or reappear only in small clusters - and this was long before vaccines..

Of course the opposite is true, it could mutate to be even more virulent or it could simply just recycle each year or every several years like some influenza viruses - and some corona viruses in other species.

We don't know enough yet about resistance or herd immunity or how mutagenic it is to make any conclusions at this point.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

cainvest said:


> If woldwide active cases go to zero for months there is no medical reason not to go back to the old normal.


Try looking at the bigger picture cainvest. 

I sincerely hope we will not go back to the 'old normal' when it comes to Long Term Care. I hope we will see an entire re-vamp of the system with far more government involvement.

I also hope we have learned our lesson in regards to sourcing PPE etc. and that will change to sourcing entirely in Canada. Price isn't everything as we have seen. They make make something cheaper in China but if you can't get it shipped to us or the USA buys up all the supply as they attempted to do, we need our own source.

I think bars are likely to have to re-close. Expecting to mix people and alcohol and still maintain distancing is I think foolish thinking. That's a 'tweek' back that I expect to see happening. 

Some business experts are saying this could be the death of indoor malls. Not having an outside access kept them from even being able to open in Phase 2 as other places were able to do. When I think of a smaller indoor mall not to far from us, they were already hurting as people were shopping in the big box stores on the outskirts and many of the stores were hurting badly. It won't surprise me if many of the stores in indoor malls do not re-open. Margins were already small and being able to open while still restricting business with distancing etc. may just be beyond their ability to do and still make a profit.

Many companies are talking about not going back to the 'old normal' in terms of offices. Working from home is likely to become far more common than in the past. Productivity has actually shown to be higher in most cases.

I also expect business travel to be affected permanently as well. Companies have discovered they can do business just as effectively by video conferencing etc. The CEO of Delta Airlines does not expect business travel to EVER get back to 2019 levels.








We May Never See as Many Business Travelers as Before: Delta Air Lines CEO


Delta Air Lines executives do not expect "sustainable recovery" for two years or more, nor do they predict business travel ever will revert to 2019




skift.com


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> I hate to have to keep bringing it up, but what about the fact that there is no cure, there is no vaccine, and there are serious concerns that an effective vaccine might not be possible?
> 
> The issue right now is that it looks like the vaccines might only offer short term protection.
> 
> I don't think the general population will accept an indefinite shutdown, even now more people are shifting to enough is enough. In most areas there are only a handful of new cases a day, if any.


You are presenting a possible problem MrMatt but offering no solutions or answers.

If your scenario of no effective vaccine and a loss of public support for containment is correct, then how do you see the 'new normal' under those conditions? Are you suggesting the 'new normal' under those conditions will be we will see people ignoring any attempts to contain the virus and willingly going out and risking catching the virus.

'Oh, no effective vaccine. I can't stand this any more. I'm going to just ignore it all.' Is that how you see it?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> You are presenting a possible problem MrMatt but offering no solutions or answers.
> 
> If your scenario of no effective vaccine and a loss of public support for containment is correct, then how do you see the 'new normal' under those conditions? Are you suggesting the 'new normal' under those conditions will be we will see people ignoring any attempts to contain the virus and willingly going out and risking catching the virus.
> 
> 'Oh, no effective vaccine. I can't stand this any more. I'm going to just ignore it all.' Is that how you see it?


I'm presenting a serious problem with the plan to stay on perpetual lockdowns and restrictions until a vaccine is developed. The basic concern is that a vaccine is not developed, or that it only lasts a few weeks/months.
Virus immunity may disappear within months: study

Quite simply there is data such as above, that any COVID19 immunity is very limited in time, and there is NO data that COVID19 immunity persists.

What I want to happen, and what I think will happen aren't the same.

I do see lockdown/restriction fatigue growing, and I think people ARE saying "I can't stand it anymore, I'm just going to ignore it all".
Have you seen the photos from the beaches? 

I would like an effective vaccine available, and I agree that is the preferred solution. 

However, since it looks like an effective vaccine will not happen, I don't think it's realistic to say "just wait for the vaccine". When you say "until we get a vaccine", you are effectively saying "this will never end". I don't think the people will accept that.

I want a better plan, maybe improved monitoring, and intense localized lockdowns to address breakouts.


I have to ask you, since there is no vaccine, and it looks like there will never be an effective vaccine, are you saying we should just stay locked down with closed borders "forever"? Do you think people will accept that?


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Longtimeago said:


> Try looking at the bigger picture cainvest.


Sure there are other aspects beyond the government "phase restrictions", problems existed before and will exist after said restrictions are lifted. 

Here in MB things are getting closer to the old normal every week. Was in Costco last night, aisle arrows on the floor are gone and many people are shopping like normal passing by each other in aisles.

At least the gov will have an updated playbook now for future pandemics, if they happen.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

cainvest said:


> At least the gov will have an updated playbook now for future pandemics, if they happen.


When.
That's the other reason I really want them to develop a good game plan. This will happen again.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> I'm presenting a serious problem with the plan to stay on perpetual lockdowns and restrictions until a vaccine is developed. The basic concern is that a vaccine is not developed, or that it only lasts a few weeks/months.
> Virus immunity may disappear within months: study
> 
> Quite simply there is data such as above, that any COVID19 immunity is very limited in time, and there is NO data that COVID19 immunity persists.
> ...


I understand all of that MrMatt but you are still just presenting a potential (if no vaccine) problem without offering any suggestions as to a solution. You are saying you want a plan from the government, why would any PERSON in government have a better idea than you might have of potential solutions.

IF we do not get an effective vaccine or treatment, then yes, this may well continue for a very long time. In that case each of us, not just the government is going to have to figure out how we will deal with it.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

cainvest said:


> Sure there are other aspects beyond the government "phase restrictions", problems existed before and will exist after said restrictions are lifted.
> 
> Here in MB things are getting closer to the old normal every week. Was in Costco last night, aisle arrows on the floor are gone and many people are shopping like normal passing by each other in aisles.
> 
> At least the gov will have an updated playbook now for future pandemics, if they happen.


You just had 5 new cases in Manitoba cainvest after 13 days of no cases at all. Do you think there might be some correlation there between a too lax attitude on the part of the public? If people think that because they have no cases they are free and clear, they are entirely wrong in that belief. There is no shortage of stupid people anywhere, including Manitoba.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Longtimeago said:


> You just had 5 new cases in Manitoba cainvest after 13 days of no cases at all. Do you think there might be some correlation there between a too lax attitude on the part of the public? If people think that because they have no cases they are free and clear, they are entirely wrong in that belief. There is no shortage of stupid people anywhere, including Manitoba.


For sure, people here are more relaxed due to the low case numbers and honestly, so am I to a point. I didn't look into it myself but was told the 5 cases were all out of province travellers. Are people here becoming too relaxed ... possibly, but providing the case numbers stay low with little or no community spread it's all good. It would seem the lifted restriction (phase 3) on 14 day isolation for western province travel is allowing some new cases in. Hopefully they'll impose that restriction again if the numbers rise due to travellers.

Kind of timely how those travel related cases came up ... I'm meeting up with a friend visiting from Alberta tonight.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

At least 26 flights have arrived in Canada with COVID-19 cases in last two weeks


Within the last two weeks -- the 14-day window believed by scientists to be the incubation period of COVID-19 -- at least 26 flights have arrived in Canadian airports with confirmed cases of the virus onboard.




www.ctvnews.ca





We still seem to be being pretty lax in dealing with travellers. Some provinces are not even reporting information on air travellers. ie. not calling you and saying, there was a positive case on the flight you flew home on. As long as there are a limited number of travellers, we may be able to contain any clusters but if travel increases we will be back where we started. That's where they all came from originally remember.


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

Some sports leagues will remain viable if there is no long-term treatment or vaccine. NFL can still make a lot of money even if nobody ever watches a live again. Even the others that are gate dependant, should see an increase in broadcast rights. Restaurants, which fail consistently in good times, are in the biggest trouble.....along with travel related industries. New industries and staycations would become the norm.....life will go on, albeit it differently than we know now. 

I think the winter will be the true test....another 6 months of vaccine development, plus the end of patios and the end of a lot of outdoor activities..........in 6 months, we’ll know a LOT more of what we can handles, and a LOT more of what we can’t.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> I understand all of that MrMatt but you are still just presenting a potential (if no vaccine) problem without offering any suggestions as to a solution. You are saying you want a plan from the government, why would any PERSON in government have a better idea than you might have of potential solutions.
> 
> IF we do not get an effective vaccine or treatment, then yes, this may well continue for a very long time. In that case each of us, not just the government is going to have to figure out how we will deal with it.


Sorry, you seem to have it backwards.
I'm in reality.
There is no vaccine, what is the plan?

You're the one pushing a plan that depends on a potential vaccine that may or may not ever exist.
That's like betting on winning the lottery for retirement, it's wishful thinking, not a plan.


I did suggest parts of a solution.
More monitoring, and developing plans for more targeted lockdowns, and develop more sustainable support plans.

A family of 4 now has 40k more federal debt because of COVID19 spending, and the economy is shrinking. We can't handle wave 2, or the flu with the current approach.

We need a cost effective strategy, that is based on available technology and resources.

I'll repeat my question that I asked earlier.
1. Since there is no vaccine, and it looks like there will never be an effective vaccine, are you saying we should just stay locked down with closed borders "forever"? 
2. Do you think people will accept that?


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## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

The final phase of the plandemic/scamdemic after they destroy the economy to get rid of CO2 & nationalize corporations is to vaccinate us with micro chips replace our jobs with universal basic. income.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> I'll repeat my question that I asked earlier.
> 1. Since there is no vaccine, and it looks like there will never be an effective vaccine, are you saying we should just stay locked down with closed borders "forever"?
> 2. Do you think people will accept that?


It is your opinion there will never be an effective vaccine MrMatt. You are entitled to your opinion but it is only an opinion, not a statement of fact as you write it. So your question should be 'IF there is no vaccine.........

No we cannot stay locked down entirely forever and I don't think anyone is suggesting we can. However, it may well be that we will have to live with no vaccine or cure for a long time. Perhaps we will never have one as you think will happen.

For however long, the government at all levels have told us what restrictions they believe we have to adhere to until there is a vaccine or cure. The obvious extension of that if there is no vaccine or cure is that those restrictions will continue and that will be the 'new normal'. 

It isn't a question of 'accepting' it or not. The only question is whether people will comply with the restrictions or not. Some will and no doubt some will not. Each individual will have to make their own decisions in that regard, the government cannot give you an answer that you want to hear when there is no answer that you want to hear other than 'this doesn't exist'.

YOU will have to decide whether YOU are willing to go to work, willing to get on a plane, willing to wear a mask if you want to be allowed to enter a store, etc. The decisions are made by YOU and it is YOUR plan you will have to come up with. You can't expect the government to decide those things for you.

You keep saying you want government to tell you the plan if there is no vaccine or cure found, but what you really want is a plan that gives you what you want rather than what you can have. If there is no vaccine or cure, the plan is simple, we will have to continue to do as we are presently doing (most of us anyway). The government can't change that for us.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Right now, there is a lot of attention being paid to schools re-opening. I wonder how many parents or future parents are looking at the situation and questioning decisions as a result of what this has shown us in regards to children and schooling in relation to parents who work.

It is only in the last 50 years or so that both parents going out to work has been an accepted norm. Personally, I consider that a bad thing. In the past, one parent stayed home when there were children to raise and one parent was the 'bread winner'. It is not progress when both parents have to work in order to put food on the table and a roof over their family's heads. 

If that were still the case today, all the uproar over schools re-opening would not exist. Not enough childcare spaces open, no problem, don't need them with one parent at home. Alternate school days or online learning, no problem, if one parent is always at home. etc.

So if I were a 20 something year old today and contemplating having children, the first question I would want to ask myself is 'can we afford to have children'? That means, one parent working and one staying home. If you can't afford to do that, you can't afford to have children. That is how your parents or grandparents had to look at it and that may be the lesson we need to learn from this for the 'new normal'.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> It is your opinion there will never be an effective vaccine MrMatt. You are entitled to your opinion but it is only an opinion, not a statement of fact as you write it. So your question should be 'IF there is no vaccine.........


Yes it is my opinion, but it is also a fact. 
Today there is no effective vaccine. << fact.
There are several under test, but to the best of my knowledge they haven't been proven safe and effective.

I claim the lack of a vaccine today is a fact. If that is not true, can you tell me what the actual factual status of an effective COVID19 vaccine is? Does it exist>? Does it not exist?

You seem to have the opinion that in the future there will be a vaccine.
Predictions of what may happen in the future are not facts.

In this case we are literally arguing about the definition of "fact" vs "opinion".

A world with an effective COVID19 vaccine, at this time, is a hypothetical future that may or may not occur. 
As much as I'd like to have a vaccine, and I think it's a great way forward, I don't think it's a good idea to act like it's a certainty.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> No we cannot stay locked down entirely forever and I don't think anyone is suggesting we can. However, it may well be that we will have to live with no vaccine or cure for a long time. Perhaps we will never have one as you think will happen.
> 
> For however long, the government at all levels have told us what restrictions they believe we have to adhere to until there is a vaccine or cure. The obvious extension of that if there is no vaccine or cure is that those restrictions will continue and that will be the 'new normal'.


Okay, I agree, we can't stay locked down forever.
You're not a mind reader, please don't attribute to me thoughts and positions I don't hold.
I did state that there is evidence that a vaccine may not be possible. That is a factual statement of reality and science at this time.

Secondly I disagree with your "obvious extension".
Once the immediate risk passes, I fully expect the government and population at large will forget and move on, irrespective of a cure, vaccine, or treatment.
For example, once the risk of SARS passed, we stopped working on a vaccine, and we either gave away or threw out our infectious disease stockpile of masks and gowns.
I think the most "obvious extension" is that we'll tire of the warnings, and we'll go back to normal. Because we always forget history and lapse back to what we did before.


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## Prairie Guy (Oct 30, 2018)

Conservatives (and Republicans in the US) are missing an opportunity with the schools closed...their kids are no longer spending the day being indoctrinated by progressive teachers in a progressive system. They should be embracing home schooling. The people hurt the most by home schooling are Liberals and Democrats who can no longer brainwash the kids.


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## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

They have not really found a cure for anything since polio. Never finding a cure for cancer is a big money maker. How many people has big pharma killed to make a profit. Big pharma & Gates needs to be investigated instead of being worshiped by the media.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> Once the immediate risk passes, I fully expect the government and population at large will forget and move on, irrespective of a cure, vaccine, or treatment.


When will that be MrMatt? SARS was contained and died out of its own accord. This virus is not going to do that anytime soon. We can see what happens as things are re-opened, the number of cases rises. We can deal with small local outbreaks if we have good tracing but if we get too many new cases, that ability to contain it will not continue.

If everyone goes back to 'normal' behaviour today or tomorrow or the day after tomorrow then the virus will spread once again and we will be back where we started. There is NO chance of the 'immediate risk' passing MrMatt.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> When will that be MrMatt? SARS was contained and died out of its own accord. This virus is not going to do that anytime soon. We can see what happens as things are re-opened, the number of cases rises. We can deal with small local outbreaks if we have good tracing but if we get too many new cases, that ability to contain it will not continue.
> 
> If everyone goes back to 'normal' behaviour today or tomorrow or the day after tomorrow then the virus will spread once again and we will be back where we started. There is NO chance of the 'immediate risk' passing MrMatt.


No idea when that will happen.
I think the government needs to decide on their plan. We're only half assing it right now.

For example, now that we're entering Phase 3 in Ontario, cities are debating if they need masks.
Why weren't they debating this in March?
The risk was higher, such a policy would have had stronger public support. 

I'm not saying we should go back to 'normal' today or tomorrow.
I'm just saying that basing all our plans on a vaccine is not responsible.
Maybe we'll get lucky and get a vaccine, but I don't think that should be our primary path.
Betting on a vaccine to get us out of this mess is like betting on a lottery win for retirement.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

When and how will the COVID-19 pandemic end?


Experts say defining the end of the COVID-19 pandemic will be a long and difficult process, one that will vary largely by country. But most agree we will remain in pandemic territory until there are only occasional traces of localized cases that are quickly contained.




www.ctvnews.ca





That provides a decent explanation of when it is likely to 'end'. The problem is that the answer is not one that people want to hear.

People do not want to hear that we are going to have to deal with a 'new normal', they want to hear we are going to go back to our 'old normal'. That is NEVER going to happen.

Even if they had a cure or vaccine tomorrow, there are many things that will never go back to the way they were. I started this thread to consider what some of those changes may be. 

For example, this may be the end of indoor malls. They were already suffering before the pandemic and this has just accelerated the problems they face. 








Will the pandemic spell the end for U.S. malls?


As they gradually reopen, U.S. shopping malls are requiring masks and implementing social distancing policies. But there are growing concerns the pandemic could spell the end for mall shopping altogether.



www.ctvnews.ca





Casinos here in Ontario are now allowed to open but limited to 50 people. Why they are limited to 50 people and a Walmart isn't I don't understand but what is, is. You cannot operate a large casino with just 50 customers and so while they can open, they are not going to open.








BREAKING NEWS: Casino Rama will not be reopening Friday


'Right now we have no set timeline for re-opening,' casino operator tells employees in an internal memo obtained by OrilliaMatters




www.orilliamatters.com





While easing of restrictions is allowing businesses to re-open, that does not mean they will survive. Many will no doubt try to re-open but find they cannot turn enough profit under existing restrictions and will end up having to close permanently. We are already seeing this happen. Imagine if say 25% of small businesses disappear, that alone means we will be living in a 'new normal'. 

There will be many unexpected consequences of this pandemic that we have yet to see manifest themselves and that will change how 'normal' looks from now on.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> No idea when that will happen.
> I think the government needs to decide on their plan. We're only half assing it right now.
> 
> For example, now that we're entering Phase 3 in Ontario, cities are debating if they need masks.
> ...


MrMatt, there is no plan for IF we get a vaccine or cure. There is no plan for what IF we never get one. You cannot plan for everything. What is going to happen is going to happen regardless of what anyone does including governments. The only thing we can be sure of in my opinion is that we are never going to go back to the 'old normal'. 

This is an unprecedented period of CHANGE that has been forced on us by a virus that does not care about politics, the economy or our health. Trying to figure out how things will change is like trying to figure out which houses will survive a hurricane and which will not. 

The whole issue of masks is a different issue and not really relevant to this thread. There is a thread on that topic as you know.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> MrMatt, there is no plan for IF we get a vaccine or cure. There is no plan for what IF we never get one. You cannot plan for everything. What is going to happen is going to happen regardless of what anyone does including governments. The only thing we can be sure of in my opinion is that we are never going to go back to the 'old normal'.
> 
> This is an unprecedented period of CHANGE that has been forced on us by a virus that does not care about politics, the economy or our health. Trying to figure out how things will change is like trying to figure out which houses will survive a hurricane and which will not.
> 
> The whole issue of masks is a different issue and not really relevant to this thread. There is a thread on that topic as you know.


I somewhat agree, we don't have much of a plan.
That's the problem, we're experiencing a major global pandemic that has killed thousands, resulted in billions in financial damage, caused untold pain and suffering, and is expected to have significant impacts on several aspects of our lives.

Yet there are people who refuse to accept that we should be planning our response.

I agree, trying to figure out how things will change is like trying to figure out which homes will survive a hurricane and which will not.
Hurricane Resistant Homes | Wind Resistant Homes | Custom Coastal Homes | Deltec Homes
I'm not sure what your point was.

Actually debating the use of masks now IS my point, we're in the "final stages" and we still don't have a plan.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

We have a plan, and it is the only plan available.

1) Continue to wear masks and social distance

2) Continue testing and contact tracing.

3) Re-open the economy selectively and carefully. Monitor the situation and close down problem areas again.

4) Support those who cannot work with government benefits.

5) Wait for a vaccine or treatment.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

sags said:


> We have a plan, and it is the only plan available.
> 
> 1) Continue to wear masks and social distance
> 
> ...


Agreed, that is basically the current plan. The problem is that MrMatt doesn't want to hear that is the plan. He wants to hear the plan IF there is no vaccine or cure.

But no one is willing to go there yet. It may be that a year from now or whenever with no vaccine or cure in sight, that people will start to say, 'well, we better plan for this to be our world forever'. However until people are ready to go there, the plan is as you say sags, deal with what is right now and wait for a vaccine or cure.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

It was not too long ago that airlines were talking about a shortage of pilots. Now they are all laying off thousands of employees including pilots.








United reaches a deal with pilots to reduce or eliminate layoffs


United Airlines and the union representing its 13,000 pilots have reached an agreement that could avoid involuntary job cuts for the group, according to the union.




www.cnn.com





Part of the 'new normal' for those who continue to fly will obviously be far fewer flights to choose from.

Our local regional airport had 8-10 flights per day to Toronto. Now Air Canada and Westjet combined have 6 per WEEK. Imagine trying to work that into your business travel schedule.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> Agreed, that is basically the current plan. The problem is that MrMatt doesn't want to hear that is the plan. He wants to hear the plan IF there is no vaccine or cure.


That's right, I don't want to hear about the plan, based on the assumption they develop a vaccine or cure.

I want them to work on the plan based on the REALITY TODAY, ie no vaccine or cure.

We're clearly on different views here. I want plans based on what we know, you're willing to say a plan based on predictions of scientific breakthroughs. I'm not against having such plans, I'm just saying the focus should be on the plan that reflects what we know today.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> That's right, I don't want to hear about the plan, based on the assumption they develop a vaccine or cure.
> 
> I want them to work on the plan based on the REALITY TODAY, ie no vaccine or cure.
> 
> We're clearly on different views here. I want plans based on what we know, you're willing to say a plan based on predictions of scientific breakthroughs. I'm not against having such plans, I'm just saying the focus should be on the plan that reflects what we know today.


The existing plan IS based on what we know today. Stay home if possible, keep a distance of 2 metres when you go out, if you can't maintain a distance, wear a mask. 

The reality is MrMatt if we do not find a vaccine or cure and we cannot get the Reproduction Rate below 1% worldwide which would see the virus die out naturally, then the current plan is the 'no vaccine' plan for the foreseeable future as in for years to come.

You seem to think that it is possible to come up with a different plan if there is no vaccine or cure found. There is no different plan we can come up with.


----------



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

sags said:


> 4) Support those who cannot work with government benefits.
> 
> 5) Wait for a vaccine or treatment.


This is where the 'plan' breaks down. Governments can't continue to support people negatively affected by closures in the lifestyle they would like to remain accustomed indefinitely. Canada is going to be borrowing perhaps 25% of its economic output this year between the feds and the provinces. If this drags on, things are going to get painful for someone. It might mean confiscating savings through increased inflation to bring debt under control.


----------



## calm (May 26, 2020)

This is what I think may happen to the Canadian economy.
We are only into 6 months of Covid-19 borrowing (350 Billion) and the* best case scenario* is a vaccine in early January and then another year to stick a needle into countless armpits.
Perhaps another trillion and a half in borrowing in the next 18 months. (Not to include provincial borrowing)

Depositors Beware
Cyprus-style bank "bail-ins" now also approved for Canada
July 01, 2013








Depositors Beware


One of our most solidly entrenched assumptions, going back even to childhood, is that when we deposit our money in a bank, it is safe and available for our use at any time. So, back in March when we l




www.policyalternatives.ca





.... the “demonetization” shock that Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave the Indian economy on November 8, 2016

India's Currency Cancellation: Seigniorage and Cantillon Effects
By Larry White
November 28, 2016








India’s Currency Cancellation: Seigniorage and Cantillon Effects - Alt-M


Larry White and Shruti Rajagopalan explain that India's demonetization will cause a wealth transfer from poor to rich and private sector to government.




www.alt-m.org


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> The existing plan IS based on what we know today. Stay home if possible, keep a distance of 2 metres when you go out, if you can't maintain a distance, wear a mask.
> 
> The reality is MrMatt if we do not find a vaccine or cure and we cannot get the Reproduction Rate below 1% worldwide which would see the virus die out naturally, then the current plan is the 'no vaccine' plan for the foreseeable future as in for years to come.
> 
> You seem to think that it is possible to come up with a different plan if there is no vaccine or cure found. There is no different plan we can come up with.


There is a middle ground before a wide open free for all, and a total "lock you in your house" lockdown.
BTW, both of those are "plans".
Yes, I do think it is possible to develop a plan that has a better balance between controlling spread and shutting down the economy. 
Right now the current actions are causing a lot of harm to people and I think we deserve better. The response to concerns is "it will be better when we get a vaccine". That's a sad excuse to not develop a better plan.

The ban on evictions and non payment of rent is a disaster.
The fact that there are no care options for kids is a massive problem for working parents, and the economy at large.
Employers are going bankrupt, and we're racking up too much debt too fast. 

In short the current plan is not sustainable, we need a sustainable plan to handle this.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Finance Minister Morneau announced that Canada's debt has been rolled over for lower interest rates at longer terms. 

Canada will spend* less* servicing the debt than we have been.

Canada still has a "safe" debt to GDP ratio and has options on how to deal with it.

Future rounds of government support will no doubt be more targeted and at a far lower cost.

Canada's debt really isn't something to fret about.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

LTA is correct. This.......is the plan right now AND if there is no vaccine.


----------



## :) lonewolf (Feb 9, 2020)

sags said:


> Finance Minister Morneau announced that Canada's debt has been rolled over for lower interest rates at longer terms.
> 
> Canada will spend* less* servicing the debt than we have been.
> 
> ...


 When people wake up they will not trust government bonds


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> There is a middle ground before a wide open free for all, and a total "lock you in your house" lockdown.
> BTW, both of those are "plans".
> Yes, I do think it is possible to develop a plan that has a better balance between controlling spread and shutting down the economy.
> Right now the current actions are causing a lot of harm to people and I think we deserve better. The response to concerns is "it will be better when we get a vaccine". That's a sad excuse to not develop a better plan.
> ...


I'll ask you one more time MrMatt. You keep saying what you see the PROBLEM as being but you keep failing to come up with a better PLAN to follow. 

If you think a 'better plan' is possible, then tell us what that better plan is. Otherwise, all you are doing is generating noise pointlessly.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Here in Canada, people are thinking that things are getting better. They're getting worse.

It can be easy to find ourselves focusing on the tree rather than the forest sometimes. We tend to look at Canada and see ourselves as doing reasonably well in regards to the virus. But look at the world (the forest), not the tree (Canada) and it is an entirely different picture.



https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-CA&mid=/m/02j71&gl=CA&ceid=CA:en



There is no flattening of the curve worldwide and we should be giving thought to that. While Canada may be doing relatively well as an individual country, we do not live in a bubble even with our borders closed to non-essential travel. People are moving from country to country and the virus will move with them.

Yesterday, the WHO reported a record 250,000 new reported cases worldwide. Remember, if the Reproduction Rate of the virus is above 1, the numbers will continue to rise exponentially. 








Coronavirus: WHO reports record single-day global increase in cases


The number of new cases has surpassed 250,000 in a day, the World Health Organization says.



www.bbc.com





We may be only letting in 1 case in 1000 of new cases that exist outside for example but if the number of 1000s is increasing then so will the number of cases that come in from outside.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> I'll ask you one more time MrMatt. You keep saying what you see the PROBLEM as being but you keep failing to come up with a better PLAN to follow.
> 
> If you think a 'better plan' is possible, then tell us what that better plan is. Otherwise, all you are doing is generating noise pointlessly.


1. I have mentioned aspects of a better plan.
2. The "wait for a vaccine" "plan" is a bad plan, it's slightly better than having COVID19 parties. 

Endlessly repeating that "the only plan is the vaccine plan" is making noise.

My plan, improve testing and detection.
Improve lockdown protocols, enforce them.
Open up parts of the country and economy that we can, including childcare, so people can get to work and make money to pay for all this.
Fix the non-payment of rent problem. Develop a plan to ensure landlords remain viable. 
The support payments are a mess, some for you, none for you, and it's also created a poverty trap where people are better off on CERB than going back to work.


On our current trajectory, unless we get people back to work, is very bad, we're already gotten massive economic damage. I'm honestly concerned with 
I'm very concerned that if they don't shape up soon, and develop better plans, we will get wiped out by the next problem. What happens if we get another pandemic in 5-10 years? we just piled on generational debt for this one.


----------



## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Longtimeago said:


> Here in Canada, people are thinking that things are getting better. They're getting worse.
> 
> It can be easy to find ourselves focusing on the tree rather than the forest sometimes. We tend to look at Canada and see ourselves as doing reasonably well in regards to the virus. But look at the world (the forest), not the tree (Canada) and it is an entirely different picture.


No doubt worldwide cases will have some effect on Canada but it's really out of our hands. We just need to focus on protecting ourselves while keeping food and other supply chains going.


----------



## calm (May 26, 2020)

I freely admit that I am probably the most pessimistic person posting within these forums.
I think that most everyone who owns stocks are doing the utmost to lessen any negativity because it will collapse the markets.
If you own stocks you need to see a rosy picture everywhere just to sleep at night.
I just don't comprehend how anybody can view the economic situation and not realize that we are witnessing the collapse of the Canadian economy. (The collapse of American Empire)
The only reason that the stock market is all gung-ho is because the Federal Reserve is purchasing major stocks and leaving the scraps for day traders.
Black Rock, a private entity owns everything now.
Nothing positive has happened within the Canadian economy in the past 6 months.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> Here in Canada, people are thinking that things are getting better. They're getting worse.


Maybe we should develop a plan to make things better, apparently the current one isn't working.


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Conservatives won't be happy until the economy reopens and then is forced to shut down completely again.

They should stop taking their cues from the idiot Republicans in the US. Look at the mess they are in now.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

cainvest said:


> No doubt worldwide cases will have some effect on Canada but it's really out of our hands. We just need to focus on protecting ourselves while keeping food and other supply chains going.


What is still within our hands is our borders. Pressure to open them will continue to build. What do you imagine the airlines are saying to the government right now. Countries with closed borders and quarantines for those who are allowed in as we have, are getting pressure to relax their restrictions. 









U.K. airlines to sue government over two week quarantine rule for arriving passengers


Airlines including BA, EasyJet and Ryanair say the rules will hurt the UK's struggling economy and penalize travelers from destinations where COVID-19 cases have dropped




fortune.com







https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/air-canada-calls-on-ottawa-to-ease-14-day-quarantine-rules-220940839.html



Jcowan reports there only being 20 people on a recent flight back to Vancouver that they took from Puerto Vallarta. How long do you think airlines can operate with those kinds of numbers. The 14 day quarantine period either at the destination someone is flying to, or returning to, or both, is no doubt stopping a lot of people who would otherwise decide to travel.

Someone cannot take a week or two cheap package holiday if they also have to add on a 2 week quarantine on their return. What do you think cheap package holiday providers are advocating for. The pressure is obvious.

We have to keep our borders as closed as possible until there is an effective vaccine or effective treatment. That is likely to be a considerable length of time still. We saw how quickly cases rose in the beginning based primarily on travel and that will simply happen again if we open our borders. 

The concern I have is that our federal government may give in to economic pressure from all those who are affected by having our borders closed and a quarantine in place and there are lot of such businesses, both large and small.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> We have to keep our borders as closed as possible until there is an effective vaccine or effective treatment. That is likely to be a considerable length of time still. We saw how quickly cases rose in the beginning based primarily on travel and that will simply happen again if we open our borders.


You know, Conservatives have been saying that for years.
Even today the Trudeau government is refusing to secure the borders.

Here in Ontario, particularly Windsor-Essex, a significant number of COVID19 cases are from illegal immigrants.
The sad reality is that much of this could have simply been solved or reduced if the government simply enforced laws, and employed common sense policies.

How many cases are from the Federal government allowing people in without mandatory quarantining, telling people not to wear masks, failing to enforce immigration law or secure the border.
At lower levels they failed to enforce the health orders against public gatherings. To be fair even the PM himself was encouraging and going to large gatherings, as he jumped between provinces to go vacationing.


Fail fail fail.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> You know, Conservatives have been saying that for years.
> Even today the Trudeau government is refusing to secure the borders.
> 
> Here in Ontario, particularly Windsor-Essex, a significant number of COVID19 cases are from illegal immigrants.
> ...


Be careful what you repeat re the Windsor Essex issues MrMatt. The workers are not to blame.

Most migrant workers are legal workers. When they arrived they had to quarantine for 2 weeks and they were all clear. It is only after starting to work that they caught the virus from residents of the area. In other words, we gave it to them.

There are SOME illegal workers that is true but they are a minority and before you go blaming them for anything, ask yourself who is employing them and under what conditions. It is the conditions they work under and how they are treated that is the problem, not the workers themselves who are the problem.









Windsor-Essex is one of Canada’s worst coronavirus hotspots. Here’s why | Globalnews.ca


The region is home to an increasing number of new cases — the vast majority among migrant workers in agricultural settings.




globalnews.ca


----------



## sags (May 15, 2010)

Migrant workers are performing an essential service by working the fields. We should be protecting them as best we can, not cramming them into terrible living conditions while here.

These farmers have been in business for 100 years. They are very large farms and could have built suitable accommodations by now. It is shameful how the workers are treated.

COVID is revealing a lot of problems in our society, from the conditions in old age homes to part time jobs with lousy wages.

Employers complaining they can't compete with an $11 an hour CERB benefit is ridiculous. Small wonder the momentum is gathering for a Basic Living Wage.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> Be careful what you repeat re the Windsor Essex issues MrMatt. The workers are not to blame.
> 
> Most migrant workers are legal workers. When they arrived they had to quarantine for 2 weeks and they were all clear. It is only after starting to work that they caught the virus from residents of the area. In other words, we gave it to them.
> 
> ...


I didn't blame legal migrants.

I blamed the criminals who are violating our laws.
This includes those with illegal status, those who are encouraging and supporting their presence, and the fact that they're working to avoid detection and monitoring of COVID19.

The people who entered the country illegally and avoid our COVID19 measures are to blame.
The people employing them and offering them money to break our laws are to blame.
The failure of the government to enforce our laws are to blame.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> I didn't blame legal migrants.
> 
> I blamed the criminals who are violating our laws.
> This includes those with illegal status, those who are encouraging and supporting their presence, and the fact that they're working to avoid detection and monitoring of COVID19.
> ...


I agree but I think you are not assessing blame appropriately. An illegal worker cannot work if no employer will hire him. So the control of illegal work is in the hands of the employers. The illegal workers have no control. It is not a case of there being equal blame.

So why is it that we hear people blaming illegal workers but NOT hearing about the employers? Why do our public health boards, municipal and provincial governments, not 'name and shame' the farms who are employing illegal workers and why do they not prosecute these employers and employment agencies'? I think that is where we should be focusing our anger and not on the workers where it seems most people are focusing it.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/leamington-migrant-workers-1.5633032


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

I think people need to think about putting themselves in someone else's shoes sometimes. Imagine yourself living in a very poor country like Quatemala and having a family to support on the average income there of $2,470 per YEAR. You hear that if you go to Canada you can get paid $13 an hour and work a 70 hour week. That's $910 a week, $3,640 per month and if you stay and continue to work illegally year round, that's $43,680 per year. That's nearly EIGHTEEN times what you can earn on average in Quatemala! 

Of course they don't tell you that the unscrupulous agencies will rip you off for a major portion of that or that the employer may treat you like dirt, have you work under chemical spraying without even giving you a mask, etc. but even after all of that the amount you will earn will be far beyond anything you could hope to earn at home. Can you see how this could get someone to risk deportation, their health and put up with being treated badly? Would you not perhaps consider doing the same for your family if you were them?

Here in Canada, even our poor have no idea of what real poverty is like in other parts of the world. We haven't 'walked in their moccassins'.








“Judge Softly” or “Walk a Mile in His Moccasins” — by Mary T. Lathrap


The name of this heartfelt poem by Mary Torrans Lathrap (1838-1895) was originally titled “Judge Softly” when written in 1895, and has later come to be known by its most famous and quot…




jamesmilson.com





There but for the grace of God and the accident of birth, go you and I.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> Can you see how this could get someone to risk deportation, their health and put up with being treated badly? Would you not perhaps consider doing the same for your family if you were them?
> 
> Here in Canada, even our poor have no idea of what real poverty is like in other parts of the world. We haven't 'walked in their moccassins'.


Absolutely, and I'm sure I'd be thinking the same things.
I also agree we in Canada are so spoiled that many literally can't conceive of how bad things can get.

That's WHY I'm Conservative!
Also it's why I want democracy and rights to improve around the world.
You look at the poor countries around the world, and one of the most common threads is their broken government institutions.

So when I see someone like Trudeau actively trying to destroy trust and faith in our institutions, I get angry.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

10 days ago we heard there were 26 flights with people on them who later tested positive. Now we are hearing of 30 flights in the last 2 weeks with people testing positive. There appears to be an overlap in those flights but all 26 reported earlier are not overlapping. So maybe it's something like 40 flights in the last 4 weeks or so.








Passengers on 30 flights in Canada potentially exposed to COVID-19


A total of 30 flights have landed at a Canadian airport in the last two weeks with at least one confirmed case of COVID-19 onboard but passengers on those planes may not have been directly informed of their exposure risk.




www.ctvnews.ca





Is this going to be the 'new normal', accepting the risk of flying when you may be flying on a plane with someone who has the virus?


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> 10 days ago we heard there were 26 flights with people on them who later tested positive. Now we are hearing of 30 flights in the last 2 weeks with people testing positive. There appears to be an overlap in those flights but all 26 reported earlier are not overlapping. So maybe it's something like 40 flights in the last 4 weeks or so.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Maybe Trudeau should close the border?


----------



## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Longtimeago said:


> Is this going to be the 'new normal', accepting the risk of flying when you may be flying on a plane with someone who has the virus?


One has to assume it is a higher risk though I don't know the numbers of "others on those flights" infected from their flight. In other words, has anyone gotten it from taking a domestic flight?

Not sure where I read this but one of those international flights with an infected person took a domestic flight the same day they came back into Canada. If true, how is that possible with the mandatory 14 day quarantine?


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

cainvest said:


> One has to assume it is a higher risk though I don't know the numbers of "others on those flights" infected from their flight. In other words, has anyone gotten it from taking a domestic flight?
> 
> Not sure where I read this but one of those international flights with an infected person took a domestic flight the same day they came back into Canada. If true, how is that possible with the mandatory 14 day quarantine?


Trudeau hasn't taken any action to monitor or enforce the quarantine "suggestion".
He just lets them in and leaves it up to the provinces to deal with his mess.

Two Americans charged with breaking Canada's quarantine rules


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Longtimeago said:


> It is the conditions they work under and how they are treated that is the problem, not the workers themselves who are the problem.


I agree that we can't blame the workers, but we can blame the government and the employers.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

kcowan said:


> I agree that we can't blame the workers, but we can blame the government and the employers.


We can also blame the workers for engaging in illegal activity, the employers for engaging and encouraging it, and teh government for not taking appropriate action to end it.

Finally, when they're doing COVID19 screening, if you're sick and run away to avoid testing, irrespective of your immigration crime, you're part of the pandemic problem.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> We can also blame the workers for engaging in illegal activity, the employers for engaging and encouraging it, and teh government for not taking appropriate action to end it.
> 
> Finally, when they're doing COVID19 screening, if you're sick and run away to avoid testing, irrespective of your immigration crime, you're part of the pandemic problem.


Where do you get this stuff? It is the farm owners who are the ones resisting testing.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/few-essex-county-farms-on-site-testing-1.5658054



It's all about money and lost production for them.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Now Ford is looking into whether he can get testing madated.




__





CityNews







toronto.citynews.ca


----------



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Longtimeago said:


> It's all about money and lost production for them.


It is the same as the US forcing meat packers to go back to work.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> Where do you get this stuff? It is the farm owners who are the ones resisting testing.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/few-essex-county-farms-on-site-testing-1.5658054
> ...


Great article.
"...it's unclear when that took place or why the others haven't done it. "

So it seems like it's unclear why it isn't happening.

Any evidence to back up your claim it's the farm owners?

I think it's likely a combination of
1. In general it's hard to coordinate stuff.
2. Ineffective government & public health resources
3. Farmers don't want to interrupt their work.
4. Migrants don't want to lose a paycheck.

I personally think it's mostly #1, but the other 3 contribute.

If my working season is only a few months long, and I'm providing for my whole family, I sure as @#[email protected]#$ don't want to get sidelined because of this. Particularly if you've heard that it's not a big deal for a healthy person as yourself.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> Great article.
> "...it's unclear when that took place or why the others haven't done it. "
> 
> So it seems like it's unclear why it isn't happening.
> ...


I don't think there is any real question of who has hold of the reins in this issue MrMatt and what their priorities are. 








Migrant worker who contracted COVID-19 says he was fired from an Ontario farm for speaking out | FR24 News English







www.fr24news.com


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> I don't think there is any real question of who has hold of the reins in this issue MrMatt and what their priorities are.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'd like to point out that worker has quite a motivation to lie.
He's asking for immigration status, and has sick family.
If he can skip the immigration process and pull them to Ontario, that's winning the lottery.

If I was him, I'd be making as much noise as possible to try and get public pressure to let me and my family into Canada.

I'm not saying the employer is clean. I'm just pointing out that he also has significant motivation for his statements.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> I'd like to point out that worker has quite a motivation to lie.
> He's asking for immigration status, and has sick family.
> If he can skip the immigration process and pull them to Ontario, that's winning the lottery.
> 
> ...


That may be true MrMatt but I would still consider it irrelevant. The real issue and problem is the living conditions that the workers live in. There is no way to maintain distancing in a bunkhouse. These living conditions simply cannot work when there is a virus to be dealt with. So who has control over the living conditions, the workers or the employers?

If the employers cannot provide SAFE living conditions then they should not be allowed to employ the workers, it' as simple as that. But what's not simple is what that would do to their business and even the public's need for fresh veggies. So it' a rock and a hard place but the ONLY people who can change it are the employers, not the workers.

I think a lot of people are BLAMING the workers and angry that those workers are then walking around in their communities. I would be angry too if I lived in say Leamington. But I would NOT be blaming the workers, I'd be demanding change by the employers. 

A Leamington developer is in fact building housing specifically for migrant workers and that is a good thing but why are the employers themselves not building such housing? Or working with developers to provide it such as in this case.








Leamington developer has solution to unhealthy migrant worker housing - constructconnect.com - Daily Commercial News


Southwestern Ontario has become known for the spike in COVID-19 cases largely because of the hundreds of farmworkers who migrate annually from Mexico and other central American countries. Various explanations have been put forward for the spike, from tig




canada.constructconnect.com





The employers are all about the MONEY and bunk houses cost less obviously. Bunk houses for 576 workers do not cost as much as the $20 million the developer is spending on 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom apartments to house them in the article above.


----------



## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

What Canadians do you think would live in the above (photo) conditions MrMatt? I certainly would not. Yet that is how migrant workers are expected to live. They do so because they see themselves as having no choice, they need the money. But they are being taken advantage of because of their need and treated just about as sub-human.

The virus has simply provided a situation that highlights how bad their living conditions are and what has happened as a result of these conditions. It's much like the deaths in Long Term Care homes has highlighted the deficiencies in them. And just like the LTC homes, it's about private business and MONEY with not enough government regulation in place to insure decent treatment of the individuals. Whether our senior citizens or our migrant workers, they deserve to be treated decently and allowed to keep their dignity.


----------



## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> What Canadians do you think would live in the above (photo) conditions MrMatt? I certainly would not. Yet that is how migrant workers are expected to live. They do so because they see themselves as having no choice, they need the money. But they are being taken advantage of because of their need and treated just about as sub-human.
> 
> The virus has simply provided a situation that highlights how bad their living conditions are and what has happened as a result of these conditions. It's much like the deaths in Long Term Care homes has highlighted the deficiencies in them. And just like the LTC homes, it's about private business and MONEY with not enough government regulation in place to insure decent treatment of the individuals. Whether our senior citizens or our migrant workers, they deserve to be treated decently and allowed to keep their dignity.


I think those are just fine living accommodations. 

I've stayed in those types of barracks in Canada and the US.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

You should see how the military sleeps on training or deployment. For training just replace those sheets with wool fire blankets, remove the lazyboy in foreground and clean up the clutter so that both bunks can be used


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> I think those are just fine living accommodations.
> 
> I've stayed in those types of barracks in Canada and the US.


Well, I'm sorry to hear your standards as to what constitutes 'fine living' is so low MrMatt. But that isn't the question I asked you. 

I asked what Canadians and by that I mean Canadian workers would accept those accommodations as well as the working conditions and pay that the migrant workers have. The answer to that seem to me to be self-evident. If Canadian farm workers were willing to accept it, we would have no need for migrant workers.

The fact is that farms cannot get Canadians to work under the conditions migrant workers face.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

m3s said:


> You should see how the military sleeps on training or deployment. For training just replace those sheets with wool fire blankets, remove the lazyboy in foreground and clean up the clutter so that both bunks can be used


We aren't talking about the military though are we m3s, we are talking about farm workers. As I just wrote to MrMatt, try getting Canadian workers to accept the same conditions. They won't and that's why we have migrant workers.

It isn't as if every Canadian is employed and so there are no workers to do the job. We have physically able people who are unemployed and could do the work the migrants do, they just refuse to do it given the conditions and pay.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> We aren't talking about the military though are we m3s, we are talking about farm workers. As I just wrote to MrMatt, try getting Canadian workers to accept the same conditions. They won't and that's why we have migrant workers.
> 
> It isn't as if every Canadian is employed and so there are no workers to do the job. We have physically able people who are unemployed and could do the work the migrants do, they just refuse to do it given the conditions and pay.


Well as a Canadian, who has accepted those working conditions, I think they're just fine.
They're also temporary onsite accommodations, if you wanted to go home at the end of the day you could.

I agree, we have workers who are unemployed and physically able to do the work, but they refuse to.
I've done farm work, picking, and it sucks, but I needed money so I did it.

How did I pay for all the school to get a fancy degree, where I sit at a desk writing email every day?
I got a job and worked. My summers were spent getting dirty and sweaty and working.
Oh and I worked through school too.

The big problem is Canadians are getting lazy and entitled. 
It's bad for the country and it's bad for the people.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Yea some are.

My son works in construction and has several trades, so he gets offered "side jobs" all the time.

A couple of weekends ago, he was asked by a company to remove 80 feet of fence with 10 posts and piling it up in a corner.

He quoted $1,000 and they said he could drive their heavy equipment for which he is certified.

So he said $800 and they agreed. He called up a buddy he knows on welfare and offered him $300 cash to put the chains around the 10 posts so he didn't have climb on and off the front end loader to tie up the chains each time. The job would take 3 hours on a Saturday, so the guy would earn $100 an hour.

The guy says he isn't interested, so my son did it himself. It took him 4 hours instead of 3, but he kept the whole $800.

Able bodied people with no legitimate reason not to, should be working.......not collecting welfare.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> Able bodied people with no legitimate reason not to, should be working.......not collecting welfare.


I actually think that's the big problem.

Unfortunately many of the support systems we have today are effectively poverty traps.
You go, earn some money they start clawing back your benefits pretty harshly.

I'd like to see only a 50-75% clawback for most social programs as you earn money.
Also no taxes until you've got a "living wage"


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Years ago I remember reading that people born in a family on welfare in Canada are most likely to end up living on welfare themselves. The point that they were making is that a culture develops that accepts it and a mindset that says, it's where they belong.

Every once in a while we hear a story of someone who 'escaped poverty' and made something of themselves. A son of a share cropper becomes a US Senator, etc. But the reality is that the children in poverty are likely to become adults in poverty.

When I was living in the UK, I couldn't believe how people accept someone being 'on the dole' as they call it, as normal. A young guy in a bar meets a girl and she asks what he does for a living. He replies, 'he's on the dole'. For most Canadian young women his saying he is on welfare would be the end of the conversation but in the UK, it is more often not than it is.

When the entire culture you grow up in sees something as normal and acceptable, then it is most likely that so will you. While some want to get themselves out of such situations, the reality is, most do not.


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