# Looking ahead are we headed for a market crash



## madeincanada (Dec 2, 2011)

I'm very interested in what you people think about the overall market in the longer term; 3 to 5 years. Seems like government polices and their inability to pay their bills may cause a market crash. We all seen what happened last year August and I’m sure the topic of US debt will come up again. Do we have a solution to the debt problem or is all this patch work going to give some day. Anyone plan to just exit the market on the next big rally?


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I plan to stay fully invested. DRIP dividends and dca some couch potato. 
If markets crash enough, I will buy some blue chip dividend stocks on sale.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I am reminded of one quote I heard regarding buying equities.................

50 falling knives and only 10 fingers. Best be careful.

Here is just one sobering statistic...............

1 in 7 Americans is using food stamps. Food stamps are a credit card sent in the mail. If not for the food stamp cards, 43,000,000 Americans would be standing in soup lines to eat.


http://live.wsj.com/video/why-the-u...boright#!CB0D1B15-9635-43C9-8F30-5117A20A62F1


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Yes I think there will be a big drop in the market most likely starting in 2013 and lasting through 2014 unless the Fed unleashes a huge dose of QE3 or QE4.


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

I believe in eventual reversion to the mean. I remember placing a ruler on a long term stock chart before the 2008 crash and thinking, "My god, the chart currently seems well above a steady progressive incline". But then, I thought that almost all the analysts were positive, and they were the experts. Now the sentiment is rather negative and we've had 10 years of fairly flat returns (especially the US). Could we have another 10? Yes, it's possible. (I think the longest dry spell has been 17 years.) But in my mind it's a far safer investment environment than in the mid 2000s when everyone was optimistic. My personal feelings are that if you have a 3 to 5 year investment horizon, buy good quality equities and don't get too easily spooked by short-term volatility (or better yet take advantage of the buying opportunities it provides), then you will be pleasantly surprised in 3-5 years.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Yes we are headed for a correction/opportunity it will be my 7th.

It will not be anything in the news.

You will wake up 1 morning same as any day and 30% of the investors will sell for some reason you never heard of. And the best part by 10:30 am every news paper, every talk show will have experts that predicted this. And you never heard of them.

Take comfort in the knowledge that opportunity is on the way . If you are buying and selling daily/weekly be nimble, if you get caught all in it will be painful.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Nobody knows. There are so many factors involved. Maybe someone somewhere, like Jim Rogers, is capable of analyzing all information in the world and saying where the markets ought to go. And maybe they will go there, but nobody knows when. Rogers himself, who has an impressive record of predicting new trends, calls himself the world's worst market timer. He usually gets in too early, suffers big drawdowns, is eventually vindicated, but gets out too soon leaving a lot of money on the table.

Today with the amount of manipulation and skullduggery going on, markets frequently do the opposite of what logic would dictate.

Right now the down trend of the last few months seems to be reversing. I don't know how long it will last but for the moment I am long.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

I do know we are heading for a correction then we will head for a peak and then correction. I'm prepared for both. Stay long on my div. stocks never worry and my small caps have some cash on hand. easy pizze.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

Oldroe said:


> I do know we are heading for a correction then we will head for a peak and then correction. I'm prepared for both. Stay long on my div. stocks never worry and my small caps have some cash on hand. easy pizze.


In other words the markets will continue to fluctuate. Good call ha ha.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Markets could either drop dramatically, drop a little, stay the same, increase a little, or increase dramatically. The only certainty is that all will eventually happen, and that no one knows in which order or when they'll happen. The question is, what course of action best prepares you for all situations?


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

All of the economists and experts seem to agree on the long list of problems........but none seem to have any solutions.

It would seem the box that governments have put themselves into...........may be escape proof.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

heard a guy on bloomberg (they all seem so damn smart even though they all disagree on everything) today confidently predict the us 10-year will go to 1.25 ... i just bought more ZUT and it has just jumped and my bonds keep going up ... you can cut the fear with a knife ... i think all the boomers (of which i am one) are terrified of losing their nest egg (of which i am also one) and they are all erring on the side of safe low returns (and no spending)

i agree with sags, no one sees an exit ... even inflating our way doesn't seem to be working ... better study the japanese and see how they have survived on 1%


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I don't know about another crash but they do tend to come along with some regularity and, the older that you get, the more traumatic they become due to a shorter time horizon while waiting for the recovery.

In the meantime, the TSX has essentially gone nowhere in the past several weeks and I suspect that it will at best be flat until at least the middle of next year or decline modestly in value between now and then---

Or, in the event that the Black Swan rears it's ugly head, crashes once again.

As human beings never learn from past mistakes, those stock market crashes will continue in the future.

Do not put money in the stock market that you cannot afford to lose and do not put money in the stock market that you are going to need within the next five years at a minimum.

Take care with your hard-earned life savings.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Oldroe said:


> Yes we are headed for a correction/opportunity...
> 
> It will not be anything in the news.
> 
> ...


This is the best way to put it IMO.

I always seem to have some lowball orders out there for just his situation. It will occur. But who knows when. Be informed and prepared.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I think if Bernanke has anything to offer..........he would already have done it.

You don't wait until the patient is on life support.........before offering antibiotics.

He appears to be resigned to........the politicians will never get their act together......and he will get some of the blame for what happens.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

I think that Bernanke is intentionally not putting forward a QE3. The market sentiment that we could somehow be helped by a QE3, seems more important than that possibility that QE3 may not really help as much as possibly thought.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Donald Trump said on CNBC today that he has never seen the world's economy in such a mess as it is now.

Does that bode well for stocks?:excitement::cocksure::smug::topsy_turvy:


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

The market is broken and has been since 2000 or 2008 and everything is just a game at this point and pretend and defend is where we stand. Money is in and out and hot and not so don't think this is business as usual because it is not and we could get a huge spike in stocks with overwhelming QE or a complete deflationary bust. So no one is going to win except those who are able to stay on top of it and nothing is safe. Dividends are good but stay on top of what you own, move accordingly or those dividend stocks may not do so well.

We haven't had to deal with this kind of sh-t for a very long time so don't get to comfortable with anything you own. This is not normal and not just noise we are dealing with here.


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## Islenska (May 4, 2011)

Never hear much talk about using margin. The heads on TV seem to avoid it like the plague or give the call of your personal risk tolerance and yet cash can be borrowed at say 3%.

This seems tempting as banks for example yield around 4% and your investment hopefully has some capital gain.

Mortgages in the 3% range. I remember having loans in the 90's around 15%.

But whatever you will hopefully make money in any market parameter so if you enjoy it stay in stocks (plus GIC's pay 1.5% etc...)


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

IMHO

Yup, just a matter a when the sh!t hits the fan.


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

Future market direction is unknowable so why fret. The talking heads are hedging( as always) and talk about "selective opportunities" and " high volatilty" I'm just staying in there collecting my dividends enjoying life.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

The markets will go up and they will go down. If you are in when they are going up and out when they are going down you can make a lot of money. Fortunately this is not difficult. There are dozens of indicators that will tell you this. Starting with Charles Dow's Dow theory, invented in 1886, aimed at providing an early indication of when a bear market turns bull and vice versa. The same Dow of the Dow Jones Averages, founder of the Wall Street Journal.

Another I learned about recently is to compare the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. When the NASDAQ is doing better than the S&P is when you make 85% of your profits or so I was told.

There are lots of indicators. Just using the 200 day moving average / 50 day moving average cross would have kept you out of every bear market of the last 100 years.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

I think we're due for a ~100pt sell off based on market structure (financials are very weak, other sectors slowly breaking down) but an outright crash is highly unpredictable. I don't think Ben will hit Ctrl+P while the US market is flying sky high. The only catalyst for a rally now is more QE - we aren't getting much organic growth that's for sure.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

> where's the shearer





> jay cee it'll be great to get these wool coats off





> what no cold beer





> don yo give no ess aitch bout organic growth


.


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

Rusty:Sounds pretty easy? I presume you have used this knowledge to become extremely wealthy?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

in the usa unemployment is persistently, stubbornly high ...
debt is once again rising
and wages are falling

so where is the growth going to come from ?
answer me that and i'll start to buy equities

my fear is that we're all going to wake up one day and have the same realization 
that's when i want to be on the sidelines


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Rumours say IMF is cutting of aid to Greece. Hope it's true. Another buying opportunity will come soon


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

How about some very long term Elliott Wave crap to give you a bit of a scare.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/26273/the-big-picture-elliott-wave-pattern


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

How about some very long term Elliott Wave crap to give you a bit of a scare.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/26273/the-big-picture-elliott-wave-pattern


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Buy! Buy!! Buy!!!

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1227821--why-markets-could-end-2012-on-a-happy-note


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

"A painful process of balance-sheet deleveraging--reflecting excessive private-sector debt, and then it's carry-over to the public sector--implies that the recovery will remain, at best, below-trend for many YEARS to come."

"For several reasons, growth will slow further in the second half of 2012 and be even lower in 2013--close to stall speed."

"A significant equity-price correction could, in fact, be the force that in 2013 tips the U.S. economy into outright contraction. And if the U.S. starts to sneeze again, the rest of the world--its immunity already weakened by Europe's malaise and emerging countries' slowdown--will catch pneumonia."

Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics (www.roubini.com)

---not a very encouraging scenario.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

you're clueless to put it in a nice way... recently learned? lol



Rusty O'Toole said:


> The markets will go up and they will go down. If you are in when they are going up and out when they are going down you can make a lot of money. Fortunately this is not difficult. There are dozens of indicators that will tell you this. Starting with Charles Dow's Dow theory, invented in 1886, aimed at providing an early indication of when a bear market turns bull and vice versa. The same Dow of the Dow Jones Averages, founder of the Wall Street Journal.
> 
> Another I learned about recently is to compare the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. When the NASDAQ is doing better than the S&P is when you make 85% of your profits or so I was told.
> 
> There are lots of indicators. Just using the 200 day moving average / 50 day moving average cross would have kept you out of every bear market of the last 100 years.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Look out below!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...s-recession-has-already-begun/article4435585/


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

.

*what ! 

you're asking me what do i think of twee like this ?*

.



> ... If you are in [markets] when they are going up and out when they are going down you can make a lot of money. Fortunately this is not difficult


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

blin10 said:


> you're clueless to put it in a nice way... recently learned? lol


So what do you do? Ride them all the way back down?

This is a valuable site if you are interested in market timing. Don Wilson has worked out an early warning system for recognizing market turns and has been using it successfully for years. Notice the returns he has gotten in the last 6 years while the S&P has gone through some wild gyrations and ended about where it started.

http://www.donsfunds.com/


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