# Garth Turner Economic forecasting



## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Garth Turner probably one of the most disliked on all forums I would think. So take a look at this http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=11900.

He wants you to dump real estate at the top and he might finally be right about this, but if I own my own house without a huge mortgage I wouldn't do this.

He says short bonds, buy commodities on the dips and at the same time sees deflation as a more potent potential threat.

He believes Americans will actually buy into high taxes and slashing Washington's spending next year. 

Is he finally right about some stuff or stumbling into being right on something? So what do you think about this or give an opinion on it.


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

If you say enough things loud enough sooner or later you'll be right. 

Some of his advice is questionable at best especially his advice on Real Estate specifically selling your principal residence and renting. If you go long on real estate and you have use of the it by living in it you can't really go wrong. You need to live somewhere. 

For investment real estate it is a good time to sell because mortgages are cheap and consequently prices are high. Still it depends what you want to do. Some people want cash flow others want appreciation. 

In any case i guess he does rub me the wrong way because of his tone more than anything


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Garth can be a little extreme at times. But he does get your attention.

Agreed w dogcom in that, if I were planning to stay in my home for another 20 years, I wouldn't sell smply b/c it may or may not be the top of the market.

It probably is a good time to short bonds, and might always be a good time to buy commodities at the dips.

And yes, I do beieve that Obama can charm the Americans into going for higher taxes, and less gov't spending, especially if they get health care. (and we all know that whatever he gets passed he will call health care)

Personally I hope that the gov't either increases the downpayment, and/or shortens the amortization period, not necessarily to pop the housing bubble but the lessen the chance of one in the future and to protect people from borrowing too much if rates stay low for extended periods of time.


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## Rickson9 (Apr 9, 2009)

Berubeland said:


> If you say enough things loud enough sooner or later you'll be right.


... or long enough.


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## Rickson9 (Apr 9, 2009)

Cal said:


> And yes, I do beieve that Obama can charm the Americans into going for higher taxes, and less gov't spending, especially if they get health care. (and we all know that whatever he gets passed he will call health care)


Obama is losing support quickly.
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/fop...elEnable=1&infopanelEnable=1&carouselEnable=0


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Americans will want a solution that is very easy to understand and transparent before they will accept any tax hikes and large cuts in spending. They will not want anything that is like the bailouts where they didn't know for sure where the money went and bankers and Wall Street benefitted.

I also think they will need some kind of shock to really wake them up to the problem like the crisis in 2008. 

In real estate as long as you live in a good area where people want to live you shouldn't have a problem with the price of your house staying down in the long term. Back in the 80's Vancouver was destroyed by high interest rates with house prices dropping 50% or more but if you could hang on, it didn't turn out to be so bad in the end.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Mr. Turner has been wrong on so many things for so many years. Anyone remember how he was calling Nortel a big bargain all the way down? Or how he wrote a book called "strategy" suggesting readers pull the equity out of their homes and buy stocks?

But I think he may be right thing time. I'm not sure that Canadian real estate is a bubble that is about to collapse but a correction won't be surprising considering home prices have seen strong appreciation for so long now.


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## scomac (Aug 22, 2009)

dogcom said:


> He says short bonds, buy commodities on the dips and at the same time sees deflation as a more potent potential threat.


If this was the exact way in which his advice was presented, then clearly he has no clue about anything. It's all absolute nonsense. 

*If* you believe that *deflation* is the most potent potential threat then shorting bonds and going long on commodities is exactly the *opposite* of what you should be doing.


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

I've been reading a book called "The Black Swan" which basically covers the randomness and unpredictability of events. The book also touches on the track-record of forecasters -- basically it's dismal. Strangely the success of forecasters does not even have a strong correlation to their education and actually diminishes past a certain education level -- if I remember the example correctly the book states that a PHD in economics would have a slightly better track record than a taxi-driver but actually comes out worse than someone with a degree in business administration.


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## Rickson9 (Apr 9, 2009)

I don't place any weight on forecasts or forecasters. 

Garth Turner's forecasts have been dismal, are dismal and will continue to be dismal despite what he believes. He is in the school of economics that says if you hold a belief about the economy long enough, it will come true.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Scomac said:
"If this was the exact way in which his advice was presented, then clearly he has no clue about anything. It's all absolute nonsense. 

If you believe that deflation is the most potent potential threat then shorting bonds and going long on commodities is exactly the opposite of what you should be doing."


Garth Turner said cut from the article:
"Deflation actually remains a more potent potential threat"

His recommendations cut from same article:
"Make no mistake, we are not out of the economic woods yet. Investors today would be wise to (along with a good equity strategy):

dump real estate at the top,

buy commodities on the dips,

chase a tax-advantaged 6% dividend yield,

be wary of index ETFs in a range-bound market and

short bonds."


This also didn't make any sense to me. Maybe you could have a shortage of one commodity that causes the price to go up for that item, but not have all commodities go up during a serious deflation.


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## Ben (Apr 3, 2009)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> But I think he may be right thing time. I'm not sure that Canadian real estate is a bubble that is about to collapse but a correction won't be surprising considering home prices have seen strong appreciation for so long now.


That's about how I feel too.


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## bean438 (Jul 18, 2009)

I place great value on forecasts, and predictions, except when they are about the future.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

I personally have trouble giving any kind of creditibility to someone like Garth Turner because of his party-hopping record.
After having been kicked out of every single political party in Canada, I think he has now run out of political parties to join.
There are bits and pieces of what he says make sense sometimes (like making RESP contributions tax-deductible) but by and large he's a maverick loose cannon.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

scomac said:


> If this was the exact way in which his advice was presented, then clearly he has no clue about anything. It's all absolute nonsense.
> 
> *If* you believe that *deflation* is the most potent potential threat then shorting bonds and going long on commodities is exactly the *opposite* of what you should be doing.


I'm confused too. If deflation is a threat, nominal bonds would exactly be the place you'd want to be.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Garth Turner probably one of the most disliked on all forums I would think. So take a look at this http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=11900.
> 
> He wants you to dump real estate at the top and he might finally be right about this, but if I own my own house without a huge mortgage I wouldn't do this.
> 
> ...


A broken clock is right twice a day.


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## cannon_fodder (Apr 3, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> but by and large he's a maverick loose cannon.


On behalf of cannon's everywhere, I take issue with that remark, sir.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Today he recomended:

'Over the next few years I’d be loading up on preferred shares paying me 5% or 6% in tax-advantaged income, sector ETFs in areas like energy, commodities and health care.'

And a small holding of bonds and an RRSP mortgage if you have the dontribution room.


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