# Recession, what recession?



## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

So I was watching/listening on the news about the Black Friday shopping madness both sides of the border.
Huge line up, pushing, hustling, even the use of guns and pepper sprays to get ahead etc.
Shoppers lining up overnight, some camping out 2 days prior.
And the greater insanity seems to be for the usual junk electronics.

I'm surprised with everything going on in the US, people still wanna spend like this.
15% of the population on food stamps, double digit unemployment rate, plunging home values, imminent recession, etc.

What am I missing?


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

That is why is called 'shopping madness.'

Remember this?

http://gizmodo.com/5099819/walmart-worker-trampled-to-death-by-deal+crazed-black-friday-shoppers


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Utterly ridiculous.

A fool and his money are soon parted.


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## awesomeame (Nov 15, 2011)

I go to the USA a lot for work and spend much time in airports, and I'm amazed that at most airports I go to, banks have kiosks set up, pushing credit cards. Didn't they learn anything either? :O

Matt


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## crazyjackcsa (Aug 8, 2010)

It's called "SLOW NEWS DAY" So you over report on whatever minor thing is going on.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

There are of course large sections of the US workers that are above-average wealthy, have secure jobs, etc.
*Somebody* has to spend, of course.
But it's not as if majority of these shoppers have been denying themselves for the rest of the year, and will only shop this weekend.

It's just surprising that given the economic conditions in the last 3 years, there has been no let-up in Black Friday madness.
One would expect a much muted, low key shopping season, but apparently now.

Well, good for everyone I guess.
I hope they are buying the products of some of the companies I hold stock in....more dividends for us.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

"And when rumours spread that the new smartphones – commonly known as Bellagio – had already sold out, the crowd of 3,000 went crazy. Several people fainted in the crush."

LOL, shopping madness or what?! 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...donesia-to-buy-new-blackberry/article2248965/


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Those people are insane.

I have two phones in my house. One of them is from 1978 and the other from 1990. Both still work, they're always on, plugged in, both touchtone, my voice is clear as a bell and the cost of the two of them was around $20. No plans, no ewaste.

_The Afterlife of Cellphones_
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/13/magazine/13Cellphone-t.html

_"Americans threw out just shy of three million tons of household electronics in 2006."_


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## OptsyEagle (Nov 29, 2009)

The problem is that recessions are very difficult to see. You can see the unemployment and you can see the customers in the store but you cannot guage how much was spent last year to how much is spent this year until the numbers are released.

You see, if growth was going to be at 2% and now 30% of the population cut back their spending by 10%, you now have a negative number of -1% for spending (which relates directly to GDP), even though 70% of the population was spending money like they always have.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I think a busy Black Friday could be even more evidence of a recession as people try to save money because of the economy. The money people spend from now until after New Years will be a better indication.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

My wife and I are in the financial position we are (ample savings, little debt) largely by not participating in such consumer madness. It IS madness... won't even pretend to understand the mindset. Blah.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I spent the night in my motorhome at Walmart here in Florida last night. At 10pm the parking lot (its ridiculously huge)was full with bumper to bumper traffic looking to park.
We went inside the store...the checkout lines were at least 25 deep....carts were full.
I didn't find anything I needed to buy other than a $2.50 bottle of cabernet and a $12 24pack of Bud Lite.

I think the USA is in better shape than the media lets on.

(I was looking at Gulf Coast property....lol at "experts" that claim property is cheap here)


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Eder said:


> I spent the night in my motorhome at Walmart here in Florida last night. At 10pm the parking lot (its ridiculously huge)was full with bumper to bumper traffic looking to park.
> We went inside the store...the checkout lines were at least 25 deep....carts were full.
> I didn't find anything I needed to buy other than a $2.50 bottle of cabernet and a $12 24pack of Bud Lite.
> 
> ...


I would counter with the idea that the average amercian is in trouble precisely because of the behavior you witnessed.

Even scarier, the based on recent studies, Canadians have now surpassed Americans in terms of personal debt loads.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Jon_Snow said:


> I would counter with the idea that the average amercian is in trouble precisely because of the behavior you witnessed.
> 
> Even scarier, the based on recent studies, Canadians have now surpassed Americans in terms of personal debt loads.


Agreed, 100%.
Regarding the Black Friday insanity in the US - it has now become cultural.

It has been pumped and hyped so much by the retailers and media every year in the last decade that now it's almost a question of living up to the reputation and meeting expectations by the Americans.

It wasn't this bad a decade ago...it's getting worse every year.

They are doing this, not because that they can afford to, but because everyone is telling them that they must.

If you look at the deals themselves, almost all the "deals" are for conspicious consumption consumer items.
There are no deals on groceries, gasoline, food, etc.
Just on junk consumer items that the retailers want to offload to consumers just so they can order more of the same.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

Isnt this trend and cultural habit good for us?I have holding in a few consumer sectors/tech....I hope and pray the companies i invest in(american/multi nationals) put there $ too work to lure in buyers for products!Thats how profits are made?Guess it depends on what side of the coin your looking @......If numbers come in that are positive from black friday its a small +,it will let us know america is "ok" Love hearing how stores are packed!Let thous registers ring!Id be more worried if the malls and parking lots are dead....thats more scary to me.(buy & hold core positions)


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

If everyone was frugal like we are, our country would be much poorer than it is. Our economy needs people to spend.


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## jcgd (Oct 30, 2011)

But spend everything that is sustainable. It does no good if things get out of hand and the eventual crushing debt kills the economy. You need a balance of spending and saving.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

jcgd said:


> But spend everything that is sustainable. It does no good if things get out of hand and the eventual crushing debt kills the economy. You need a balance of spending and saving.


Exactly.

The problem is that people that are frugal, like TRM, are too frugal.

And people that spend, like 99% of the population, spend too much.

It is not balanced.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

What we need right now is to get obama out of the white house imo.

You got large companies that want to spend money but the us government is in the way...regardless of the europe mess.

I read an awesome transcipt on wynns conference-the way steve wynn explians the way the government is handicapping the very companies that can and have the means to put people to work but cant.


I actual side with the donald trumps and steve wynns of the world,or atleast it seems to make the most sense.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Since many of the shoppers are up to their eyeballs in debt, with no hope of ever paying it back, they should have been buying freezer loads of food on whatever credit is left on their well worn credit cards.

Might as well be eating steak, while in bankruptcy.


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

70% of companies in the S&P500 just beat estimates for Q3. 10% after that were also inline with estimates. 

Guess this explains why the S&P500 is beating International and Canadian benchmarks.


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Am I too frugal? Not sure about that. I keep track of my expenses and I know for a fast I do waste money. I look at my CC statements and see that my typical gas bill is around $60 and groceries around $50 now. I do have a late model car and hobbies I indulge in.

What I don't do is waste money on what is referred to above as "conspicuous consumer items". I spend my money on the things that really, truly matter to me, such as my hobby items.

I basically don't buy things because telcos and peer pressure/society tells me I "need" them. My electronics are ALL used until they break or are obsolete to the point of not being functional. I resist buying things which are the target of planned obsolescene. My CRT TV from 1999 still works like a charm, so I continue to use it. When I go to ewaste to drop off my two broken DVD players I see people tossing out big screen TVs that are far more modern than my TV.

So I dunno guys, is this really being excessively frugal?


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## MoneyGal (Apr 24, 2009)

TMR, I think you and I could have a pretty good throwdown to determine who between us would win the title "excessively frugal." I mean, you've even called my spending levels unrealistic.


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

the-royal-mail said:


> So I dunno guys, is this really being excessively frugal?


In my opinion if you're still watching a CRT TV, then yes. The difference between a CRT and even the cheapest 1080p digital TVs is huge. You can buy a 40" 1080p TV for well under $500 now. Even if it only lasts you 10 years, that is $4 per month.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Consumer spending on goods is up 9.1% but spending on services - the biggest driver of US job growth is lagging way behind at 2.1%.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...000.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews#printMode

Think this sums up peoples rationale:


> Services represent fleeting experience, as compared with buying something with enduring value. "I can skip a dinner or two to pay off a credit card, but I'm going to have this bed for 20 years," she said.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

ddkay said:


> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...000.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews#printMode
> 
> Think this sums up peoples rationale:


I am glad that explains the rationale. However, I have been in charge of several estate liquidations since 2008, and people cherish the memories of their experiences but no one wanted more "stuff". You can take the memories with you...


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

The biggest consumer item happens to be televisions, most families watch television together, so they are still buying an experience-entertainment, but it is shut-in inducing.

I remember when console gaming meant you had friends on a couch playing Super Mario Kart or GoldenEye and laughing together. Now it's one person in a room somewhere.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Anyway I definitely don't see how people pepper-spraying each other over Xboxes and trampling each other over $2 waffle irons at Wal-Mart equals recovery, I'd say things are getting worse. Buy some taser stocks $TASR it's up 18% year-to-date.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

How the heck did (ulta)-beauty store-hammer out ridiculous numbers?chicago and american based salon operator? That stock has gotten alot of press,there business is thriving according to there reporting....wonder if the mid-west thing.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Looks like a promoted momo stock, I duno what do the makeup forums you read say about it?


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

lol,apparently the katie perry hair bangs are still all the rage lol.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

By Sylvia Wier - Nov 26, 2011 4:21 PM ET

Black Friday holiday sales rose 6.6 percent from the year-ago period, and retail purchases totaled $11.4 billion, the biggest dollar amount ever, the research firm ShopperTrak said today in a statement

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-26/black-friday-sales-up-6-6-shoppertrak-says.html

If you're looking for a recession in retail you'll probably find it here last.. remember, people have to lose or be worried enough about their jobs before they stop spending money or tighten their purse strings. Most people aren't informed about current affairs, and if they are are unable to apply the knowledge into their lives. The saying ignorance is bliss is one hundred percent true..

March 2009 (stock market bottom) Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell 1.1 percent in March after rising for two straight months, government data showed on Tuesday, dimming hopes the 16-month-old recession was close to hitting bottom.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

High sales revenue for the merchants, but many said it is was on ultra low profit margins.

All it means is they are moving sales forward.......at a discount.

Not really a great way to run a business.

In January and February, there will be lots of news stories on buyer remorse, over indebtedness and rising depression numbers.

It happens every year.


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

If they were giving away "stuff" you still wouldn't catch me dead at a Walmart in the US on Black Friday. 

As a matter of fact, this is the time of year I start looking for abandoned stores. I hate shopping, shopping malls, and fighting for service, parking and all that jazz. I'd pay double to not have to go to stores fortunately there are lots of online retailers dying to take my money, there is no queue, ng and for the most part they're cheaper. 

I value my time a lot especially time spent doing crap I hate such as standing in line at Walmart or any other retailer that is understaffing because they don't respect my time. It's like they've trained us to like waiting to give them our money. Unfortunately for their projections on how long people are willing to stand in line waiting before they abandon their stuff and go somewhere else, in my case they are wrong. 

Walmart's service or lack of it rather is abusive to their customers and I don't know why people put up with it.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

You don't need to stand in line Berubeland, just use pepper spray to clear everyone out.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

For those who are not part of the choir of frugality. Watch this and deny the neuroscientific marketing their victory: http://fora.tv/2011/02/15/Robert_Sapolsky_Are_Humans_Just_Another_Primate

Also in the long run, we as a species is doomed. Inflation needs to be sustained by constant population growth, which needs to be sustained by increased resource consumption and it feeds back on itself.


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## crazyjackcsa (Aug 8, 2010)

Causalien said:


> For those who are not part of the choir of frugality. Watch this and deny the neuroscientific marketing their victory: http://fora.tv/2011/02/15/Robert_Sapolsky_Are_Humans_Just_Another_Primate
> 
> Also in the long run, we as a species is doomed. Inflation needs to be sustained by constant population growth, which needs to be sustained by increased resource consumption and it feeds back on itself.


Life's a b!tch for a fatalist isn't it?


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Although I generally agree with Berube's post and feelings described above the one area where I might disagree is with regards to waiting in line at the checkout. I rarely go to WM, perhaps I do so once per year? Anyway, the lineup in my local store is not a lineup at all. When I'm there there is a single cordoned bank-style line with numerous tills that process customers very quickly and announce "please go to till 3" based on whichever cash frees up first. They don't hassle me to sign up for their stupid points/tracking card and I get through the checkout very quickly. The cashiers are to the point and efficient.

This is a stark contrast to the grocery store where the lineups are definitely as Berube describes. It's every shopper for themselves, as the moment I round the corner in the row leading to the checkouts I hunt for the till that has the least amount of people or problems occuring. Often times the express lane isn't much faster as it has many people buying a dozen or less items. Oh well, I wait patiently and keep things moving as best I can, I am ready with my wallet and change in my hand as the cashier is finishing up.

Photos of these two lineups would probably demonstrate this a little better but my point is I'll take the WM checkout format anyday over the grocery store format.


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## financialnoob (Feb 26, 2011)

I think this is a good example of people not thinking about their soft costs. Like they saved $40 on a video game, but spent 6 hours outside in line to do so.

W.T.F.

I find the whole Christmas season incredibly ridiculous. I love Thanksgiving. It's simple. Get together with friends and family, eat a ton of food and drink and watch football. Simple, easy. No stress with gifts and people spending hundreds or thousands of dollars they don't have for distant relatives. 

Black Friday has become its own holiday, one to celebrate North American consumerism at it's most extreme. From pepper spraying to trampling to fighting with friends and neighbours over non-essential items that will be obsolete in a few months anyways, there is absolutely nothing about that day that appeals to me.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

donald said:


> What we need right now is to get obama out of the white house imo.
> 
> You got large companies that want to spend money but the us government is in the way...regardless of the europe mess.
> 
> ...


Are you talking about letting them bring money parked overseas without paying income tax?

They all talk about how this will boost the economy and encourage investment and employment. However, the last time they let this happen there was no such increase inn economic activity. It was just a tax break for the companies and their shareholders.

Obama is doing fine. The government is dysfunctional in its present form. You can replace him and you'll probably get something much worse like the Bush years that started with a big unnecessary war and ended with the start of the Great Recession.

The truth is that we are in a Debt deleveraging cycle after a massive credit crisis. Such economic cycles last 10-20 years and we are probably in year 11 now. It wouldn't have been so bad if after the stock market crash the Fed didn't blow up another bubble that's exactly what they did.

I expect about 5-10 more years of hardship. If the "Tea Party" gets more power they will bring America to its knees. Trying to exert austerity in the middle of a cycle when the private sector is trying to repair balance sheets will result in a depression and massive social unrest.

It is probably best to have the Democrats in as they will spend and provide some fiscal stimulus to an economy badly in need of it.

If the non-Tea Party Republicans have most of the power that would be the lesser evil than Tea Party Republicans. The normal Republicans will push tax cuts and won't cut expenditures and will increase military spending which will also be a formal of fiscal stimulus that the economy needs.


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

Im talking from the job creation/unemployment angle of the usa and there are numerous reasons why the obama admin is a "wet blanket"

I dont know how to tag actricles but he(wynn/& numerous other capitalists) cant create because of-Health care costs(cant perdict)-Regulatory taxes loads(cant perdict)

He was saying everything is striaght forward over in macau-everything is perdictable and striaght foward-He is actually passing on his companies net income revenue back to his american employees and for that matter his shareholders.

There is nothing enticing for his company to develop anyhing in vegas because of the way the feds and there policies work right now.(and wynn resorts has undeveloped land sitting,waiting for "the change"Wynn goes into the secruity issues re:visa & passports and how that also effects wealth creation inside vegas from patrons ect.

I cant articulate it that well but the way wynn lays it out makes sense from a laymans perspective-He is outspoken- saying this is the worst admin he has seen in his 50 yrs.....but im sure he has an agenda......Everybody knows the feds in the usa are not business friendly now.For inside job creation.....there seems to be reasons why unemployment is so high and all corporations are flushed.


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## cdnpennystocks (Oct 27, 2011)

HaroldCrump said:


> So I was watching/listening on the news about the Black Friday shopping madness both sides of the border.
> Huge line up, pushing, hustling, even the use of guns and pepper sprays to get ahead etc.
> Shoppers lining up overnight, some camping out 2 days prior.
> And the greater insanity seems to be for the usual junk electronics.
> ...


This behavior is the very reason they are in debt! They think they are "saving money" by buying things on sale. 50% off of $500 means you are still down $250, but they don't understand.


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## realist (Apr 8, 2011)

Sherlock said:


> In my opinion if you're still watching a CRT TV, then yes. The difference between a CRT and even the cheapest 1080p digital TVs is huge. You can buy a 40" 1080p TV for well under $500 now. Even if it only lasts you 10 years, that is $4 per month.


I disagree with your assessment that it is easy to get a decent 40" TV for under $500 but that sort of misses the point.

TRM is perfectly happy with her CRT. If you are not planning to spend the money on an HD feed, or upgrade all your DVDs to bluray, I am not sure that getting an HDTV is necessarily worth it. I say this as someone who is pretty damn frugal, and just dropped a buttload of cash on BR from Amazon.com, but I also watch a lot of TV, so the cost is worth it to me. For less TV inclined people, $500 is a lot of money for something if you don't value the gain. 

Similarly, we have three computers in the house, all of which are pretty outdated, but all perform the tasks we need them to perform. I can't justify spending $300-500 to upgrade for only marginally improve performance.

I also agree with dogcom, the sales volumes for Black Friday mean next nothing. I waited all year for movies I knew I was going to buy to come down to a reasonable price. I think that spending after Christmas will be even lower because of it. We have now trained people to wait for the good sales for items they don't immediately need.


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## Guigz (Oct 28, 2010)

realist said:


> Similarly, we have three computers in the house, all of which are pretty outdated, but all perform the tasks we need them to perform. I can't justify spending $300-500 to upgrade for only marginally improve performance.


I disagree that replacing an outdated computer system (I am assuming this to mean it is 6+ years old) will only result in marginal increase in performance. With the way the technology progresses, each 2-3 years brings forward something that is orders of magnitude faster than its predecessor. 

I think you meant it more as meaning that the computers you do have perform adequatly for what you use them for. I do get this. Your *user experience* would only be marginally increased.

I think a good idea for computers is either to buy 2-3 years old used parts or to buy new but get the best performance / $. Very cheap parts or very expensive parts usually have poor performance / $ ratio. 

It might make sense to replace an older CRT in order to get the free 1080P uncompressed ATSC signals that are broadcasted. If you need to buy a 100$ tuner for your TV, might as well spend a few more dollars and get something with integrated ATSC, better picture, lighter...


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## MoneyGal (Apr 24, 2009)

We have a CRT TV. Only my kids watch it, and they only watch TVO. No plans to replace it!


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## Berubeland (Sep 6, 2009)

What quality of tv you have depends on how much you watch it. For years I didn't even have cable, so why bother? 

Everyone should spend money where it pleases them most and if you don't watch tv spend your money on something you really enjoy that gives you pleasure.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

cdnpennystocks said:


> This behavior is the very reason they are in debt! *They think they are "saving money" by buying things on sale. 50% off of $500 means you are still down $250, but they don't understand*.


Stompin' Tom Connors actually had a song about that very consumer phenomen. It was used on the old CBC Marketplace TV show, about 25 years ago.

"The consumers they call us,
runnin' off to the ole marketplace.
Another sale on sumthing,
we'll buy it while it's hot...
and save a lot of money..money we ain't got! "


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

One up, MG. I have a CRT that's not even plugged in.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

andrewf said:


> I have a CRT that's not even plugged in.


That's because these days plugging anything into an electricity socket seems to cost an arm and leg.
Sorry, couldn't resist


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Harold, are you suggesting that someone in Ontario can only afford to watch their CRT at like 3AM because of oh....say...TOU pricing?
Again, sorry couldn't resist hahaha. Here come the flames. *shrug* LOL


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

realist said:


> I disagree with your assessment that it is easy to get a decent 40" TV for under $500 but that sort of misses the point.


Bought my 40" Toshiba for $499 plus tax and enviro fee last January.  There were Sonys and Samsungs and LGs for around that price too if that's your preference.

I don't have cable either, but over-the-air TV is precisely why you need a new digital TV. Most stations today broadcast in 1080i which is actually higher quality than cable (most types of cable). No need for blu-ray. I don't think CRTs can even catch digital signals, you'd need to buy a digital-to-analog converter box and if you're gonna spend money on that then you may as well spend a little more and just get a whole new TV instead. And of course LCDs (and especially LED LCDs) use a lot less power than CRTs.

It's funny because my friend bought his 480p TV a few years ago and paid something like $2000 for it, now a much superior TV can be had for a quarter of the price. If I thought TVs were gonna go down in price I'd suggest waiting but it's doubtful they will, I think LCD TVs have pretty much bottomed out.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

the-royal-mail said:


> in Ontario can only afford to watch their CRT at like 3AM because of oh....say...TOU pricing?


Well, you need some entertainment while doing the lundary, right?
Might as well watch _Casablanca _on your B&W CRT TV.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

We looked on craigslist for used 28" CRT TVs. Good selection for $10. Many free.


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

^ Got a 32" JVC for $20 last year.

Mint condition

Only used it about 3 times though...... kind of a waste of $20.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

KaeJS said:


> ^ Got a 32" JVC for $20 last year.
> 
> Mint condition
> 
> Only used it about 3 times though...... kind of a waste of $20.


I have a 32" flat screen with the off air DTV tuner..works great and you can really see the quality difference in the picture resolution, now that pretty much every station is broadcasting in HDTV,

So you got a "steal deal" on your flat screen..but how much did the shipping
cost you?..that is the key today to buying big heavy items on CL or Kijiji.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

Sherlock said:


> Bought my 40" Toshiba for $499 plus tax and enviro fee last January.  There were Sonys and Samsungs and LGs for around that price too if that's your preference.


Those 32"->40" flatscreens are starting to come down in price, just like the laptops. I can get a new 32" for about half the price I paid for mine 5 years ago ($699 at Costco)..and at the time when I got rid of a 27" CRT Sony that cost me about $800 10 years previous. 

Now the lastest thing is the 50-60" flat screens..they are slowly evolving to a screen size of 120"! 3D is now the greatest thing since... <one moment please>...

.....Bang! Bang!..will somebody please call 911..I just got "shot" in 3D by a drive by shooting! 



> I don't have cable either, but over-the-air TV is precisely why you need a new digital TV. Most stations today broadcast in 1080i which is actually higher quality than cable (most types of cable). And of course LCDs (and especially LED LCDs) use a lot less power than CRTs.


1080i (interlaced scan) or 1080p (progressive scan)..it's the same when it meets the eye and brain . There is a slight difference in the technology used, but both are great HD formats compared to the old NTSC broadcast
transmissions of 525 lines over 2 interlaced frames.

http://hometheater.about.com/od/televisionbasics/qt/1080ivs1080p.htm



> It's funny because my friend bought his 480p TV a few years ago and paid something like $2000 for it, now a much superior TV can be had for a quarter of the price. If I thought TVs were gonna go down in price I'd suggest waiting but it's doubtful they will, I think *LCD TVs have pretty much bottomed out.*


Well it all depends on how popular the next technology innovations are going to be. 
I don't think the manufacturers are finished re-inventing picture display technology. Home theatre and flat screens a huge business in consumer entertainment..
"Merry Christmas kids!..we just bought a 50" on sale so you can really fry your little brains out"..playing those 3rd person shooter video games..my my! the blood and gore can be so realistic when it's closer to life size. 

15 years ago..huge CRT tvs ruled..now it has evolved to huge flat screen TV of 60" cinematic wide screen.. and 3D tv is still in it's infancy.
I will put my money on it, that in 15 years from now, 3D will be the most popular format sold, and these 32-50" flat screens will be chopped in price even more.

At some point in the future, the shipping/distribution from China will cost more than what it costs to produce the TVs. 

I remember when VCRs (those old fashion tape cassette playback machines were over a $1000 in 1970-1980 dollars. Considering inflation,and wage scales 30-35 years ago, it would be closer to $2000 aftertax buying power today. If you can still get them, they are well under a $100 and in most cases, closer to $50-$60 with store profit margins built in.

Volume sales/big box stores and big competition between them..drive the consumer prices down even more.


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