# Apple Inc. (AAPL)



## gibor365

Despite very nice earnings and pretty reasonable P/E 16, AAPL is practically flat YTD. What do you think about Apple's future?


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## andrewf

They need to keep pumping out blockbusters to maintain their earnings... hence multiple compression. Android is going to put some serious pressure on iOS device sales. Will people pay twice as much for half the device just for half-eaten fruit logo? Some will, but enough to justify a $300 billion market cap?


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## gibor365

andrewf said:


> Will people pay twice as much for half the device just for half-eaten fruit logo?


Yes, in some cases they will... maybe not good example , but why people buying Malrboro or Parlament, Pepsi or Cola - even though local brands maybe not worse and cheaper...
Again, last Q AAPL had a huge profit and stock practically unchanged.... I just don't understand


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## phrenk

I haven't looked at the stock, but i suspect that the stock price currently implies a very high growth rate. Apple has the market cornered in many of its segment, however, as a leader, it will be the first to lose market share with the increase competition. 

What are the chances you will double your money on the stock ? Practically 0 given the 300B market cap. 

I just looked at the chart on Google Finance ... the YTD chart is an interesting roller coaster. Someone could probably buy in at the 320-325 and ride it until the 350 ... the support / resistance levels are pretty evident, 7-8% gain.

If you're looking for long term hold, this probably isn't the best choice. No dividend and limited growth (my opinion) given current market cap and competition.


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## brad

phrenk said:


> If you're looking for long term hold, this probably isn't the best choice. No dividend and limited growth (my opinion) given current market cap and competition.


If I were to buy this stock, I'd wait for the next major plunge and then hold for the long term. Everyone predicts the stock will tumble when Steve Jobs eventually dies, which hopefully won't be for many years but his health remains precarious. Many people believe Jobs is the driving creative force at Apple, but he has never actually done any programming or designed a product. He plays a major role in product development of course, but he has worked hard to ensure that Apple will remain in good hands after he's gone.

One thing to consider is that Apple products tend to be popular with baby boomers, and the growth rate of the elder population will double over the next 20 years. Apple still has a lot of room for growth in the PC market, the software market, and other markets that we haven't even dreamed of yet because Apple will create them. I agree that they'll lose market share in the phone market and eventually the tablet market, although Apple has a strong headstart on tablets and the iPad is already making significant inroads in the corporate and scientific markets.


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## kcowan

Apple has never gone for market share. They price their products high and go for the premium buyer. As a result, there will be lots of opportunity for Google and RIM and Motorola and Nokia, maybe even MS to compete at the low end. Their trailing PEG is 0.7 and anything under 1.0 is usually a safe bet.

I agree that you can make a lot trading on the swings. They have always had a volatile stock price. And their returns this year, especially in C$, are mediocre.


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## brad

kcowan said:


> They price their products high and go for the premium buyer.


Except in the tablet market, where nobody has yet to offer anything comparable at their price point. Their PCs aren't cheap but in some cases are cheaper than PCs from Lenovo or even Dell with comparable specs -- it's just that Apple's specs are on the high end in terms of speed, storage, graphics cards, etc. so they're competing in the medium to high end of the market for people who need serious tools.


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## andrewf

^ Spin alert. 

Apple's Quad core workstation:

One 2.8GHz Quad-Core Intel Xeon "Nehalem" processor
3GB (three 1GB) memory
1TB hard drive 1
18x double-layer SuperDrive
ATI Radeon HD 5770 120 with 1GB GDDR5

$2,599.00

Any way you slice that, it's overpriced. Only 3 GB of RAM?


iPad/iPad 2 are genuinely nice devices. Apple created the market and has first mover advantage. Already though, other makers are putting out devices with superior specs around the same price point. In two years it'll be a massacre.


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## brad

andrewf said:


> ^ Spin alert.
> Apple's Quad core workstation:...$2,599


But that's their most expensive machine. The new iMac actually now has comparable specs for $1,200. (everyone expects Apple to either discontinue the Mac Pro or come out with a far more souped-up version).

The base model iMac comes with 2.5GHz quad-core Intel Core i5 with 6MB on-chip shared L3 cache, 4 gigs of RAM:

http://www.apple.com/ca/imac/specs.html

And that price includes a 21 inch monitor.

A couple of years ago when I shopping for a laptop I priced out a MacBook Pro and compared it with comparable models from Lenovo and Dell. The Lenovo laptops with the same specifications were about $100 more than the Mac, and I only found one Dell model that was cheaper.


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## andrewf

Actually, their most expensive machine seems to be a 12-core server/workstation for $5199. 

The base Mac Book

2.4GHz : 250GB

2.4GHz Intel Core 2 Duo
2GB DDR3 memory
250GB hard drive1
8x double-layer SuperDrive
NVIDIA GeForce 320M graphics
Built-in 7-hour battery2
Polycarbonate unibody enclosure

Available: In Stock
Free Shipping
$1,049.00

Only a 250 GB hard drive? Only 2 GB of RAM? A non-dedicated graphics set that only uses 256 MB of system RAM. Underspeced for the price. I will admit that they make nice chassis. Pity about those built in batteries. I bought a Dell laptop with similar or better specs 4 years ago for a bit less money!


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## Andre112

Lets keep this to the topic? There are other forums for mac vs pc.


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## gibor365

kcowan said:


> , there will be lots of opportunity for Google and RIM and Motorola and Nokia, maybe even MS to compete at the low end. Their trailing PEG is 0.7 and anything under 1.0 is usually a safe bet.


AAPL's PEG = 0.74 

_They price their products high and go for the premium buyer_ 
One point, that number of premium buyers in countries like India, China, Russia is increasing and taking in consideration their population , there is ponential for growing.
Regarding price... maybe it's true, but people like brand quality names, this is why ppl prefer paying more and buying BWM or Honda and not cheap cars...


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## andrewf

Andre:

My point was to illustrate that while there is a market for over-priced, under-speced devices in a 'good design' package, this is not a recipe for market share. So either Apple loses market share inexorably or it faces margin pressure as better, cheaper devices hit the market. Their way out is to invent multi-billion dollar product categories every year or two. Easier said than done.


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## brad

But it's strange that these "over priced underspeced" PCs from Apple have been gaining market share, not losing it. Apple now accounts for more than 10% of the PC market in the US, up from less than 5% just a few years ago, and Apple now ranks third in sales of personal computers in the US, shipping nearly 2 million Macs in the third quarter of 2010 alone. It could be a temporary halo effect from the popularity of the iPad, iPhone, etc., but time will tell.


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## MoreMiles

Many stocks stay flat with a low PE... on the other hand, many keep growing despite a PE of almost 100. For example, GOOG vs. BIDU.... similar businesses, different ROI.

Another example... MSFT, very solid company with good PE. But it's a horrible choice for investment growth.

Coming back to AAPL, the "Black swan" is the death of Steve Jobs. I wish he will live for many many more years. When the time comes, there will be a MASSIVE sell-off, something maybe like 25% in my opinion. So I am not sure if I want to take a position with this unknown.

But then again... Google is not much better. They have an amateur CEO now... which will drive the company into a disaster soon.


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## Andre112

andrewf,

I bought a macbook pro last year cuz I just had enough with windows. I compared to Dell to get an idea how much it would cost for the similar spec. Yes, Apple laptop lacks harddrive space and memory. But to have a Dell equiped with similar cpu/memory/harddrive with wireless-N network and bluetooth, it end up costing almost the same. And I paid a little more to have OSX and the aluminum shell.


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## m3s

When I was shopping for a high end laptop I really considered a Macbook because I don't shop based on my admiration or prejudice against owners of a brand. It came down to Sony vs Apple for me and I looked at them both in stores and they both seemed nice enough. Specs/price wise the Sony was a lot better with a sale so I went with that

My laptop at the time was really old so I expected the specs to make a huge diff, but they really don't. There's a lot more to the laptop than specs. This Sony tuned out to be loud, cheap feeling (Sony is not what it used to be) and no noticeably faster than a Macbook at all, in fact the Macbooks actually seem to work better despite the lower specs. Windows is a bog of a OS, or maybe it's all the intruding software

My point is, specs don't always make the difference. 8 processors feels no faster than 2 or 4 to the ave joe but it does burn more power and make more noise/heat that you will notice. You will also feel the craftmanship of a cheaply built vs high quality parts. You can still swap in higher spec parts like SSD and RAM as they become cheaper.

Apple puts out a good package that works better on less specs, by being an efficient system that works well as a package and makes less noise etc. Specs aren't everything, but specs are what sell. I don't think people are really that dumb to pay extra for a brand, I think people are sick of a lackluster OS and see that specs aren't all there is to a system


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## brad

In terms of build quality, though, I don't think anything can beat Lenovo ThinkPads. I've had four of them and they were hands-down the most reliable and trouble-free laptops I've ever owned, in terms of hardware. The software of course is another story, but I never had any hardware malfunctions on any of my Lenovo machines, whereas all but one of the many Macs I've owned either came with or soon developed hardware problems. My current MacBook Pro is the only Mac I've had that's made it past three years with no hardware issues.

Lenovo might actually be a good investment but I'm not sure what their growth potential is likely to be. Like Apple, they're mainly a niche player.


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## gibor365

mode3sour said:


> Sony is not what it used to be


COmpletely agree wuth this staement. U'd never buy something from Sony, unless there is no choice


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## Xoron

gibor said:


> COmpletely agree wuth this staement. U'd never buy something from Sony, unless there is no choice


I'd completely disagree. I'd NEVER buy anything from Sony.  Past, Present or Future.


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## m3s

It's funny the same people that slight people for buying a brand name also refuse a product based only on brand

I've found some amazing Sony products on sale that blow away the competition in things that "spec shopper's" won't ever know about, similar to Apple products. Things like material, GUIs, fit and finish, power supplies, noise, cooling etc. I recently moved to Euro and only my Sony and Apple products work on 220v, the rest had the bare min PSU and had to be sold. Basically you get what you pay for


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## Xoron

mode3sour said:


> It's funny the same people that slight people for buying a brand name also refuse a product based only on brand


My opinion is based on my personal experience. I've had a few Sony products over the years. Most died well before what I'd considered a reasonable amount lifespan. So yes, I'll avoid products which *I* deem to be lower quality.


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## andrewf

There's very few companies that I boycott. Apple is one of them. Though I have never really been tempted by one of their devices. For some reason, everything about that company seems to make me seethe with annoyance. Maybe it's the marketing?

Agreed that you can't shop solely on specs. Build quality is as important, but difficult to quantify. I have definitely seen some cheap and flimsy looking Sony laptops, and I will never buy another Toshiba product (nearly every person I know who has had one of their consumer grade laptops has had several hardware issues with it).


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## kcowan

Everyone I know who has made the switch to Apple rave about it and would never move back. I use an HP laptop from 2003 that still works well on XP. One son uses Windoze and the other uses Apple.


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## brad

andrewf said:


> There's very few companies that I boycott. Apple is one of them.


I kind of feel that way about Dell, although I do own a Dell monitor and love it. I just wouldn't buy a Dell computer for myself. My employer has an exclusive contract with Dell, we have about 5,000 machines across the company, and the failure rate is impressive; one of the techs told me that something like 60% of them develop hardware issues within the first year. That was true for my work laptop -- all but one of the four USB ports stopped working after 6 months. In contrast I've run a couple of ThinkPads hard for 8 years without a single problem.


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## andrewf

My employer also switched to Dell--they have been horrible. The Dell I bought personally a few years ago has been solid. It's well put-together, and I've had zero hardware issues. I guess it's hit and miss with Dell. I'm not sure why they have so many quality issues in their corporate business, because they are on the hook for all warranty claims.

My next laptop will probably be an Asus. They have some really phenomenal build-quality. They might not be as pretty as Macs, but dollar for dollar you're getting much better value.


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## m3s

andrewf said:


> There's very few companies that I boycott. Apple is one of them. Though I have never really been tempted by one of their devices. For some reason, everything about that company seems to make me seethe with annoyance. Maybe it's the marketing?
> 
> Agreed that you can't shop solely on specs. Build quality is as important, but difficult to quantify. I have definitely seen some cheap and flimsy looking Sony laptops, and I will never buy another Toshiba product (nearly every person I know who has had one of their consumer grade laptops has had several hardware issues with it).


I used to boycott Apple as well, and then I realized they make some good products. Brand is only a marketing scheme and you really can't paint all products from 1 brand the same

Toshiba used to make great laptops but now they use that brand power to sell crap in the big box stores. I'm sure they make more profit than they did on the good laptops!

I find a lot of companies that used to make good product, end up riding on the brand name after awhile, yet people will still swear by their products as if under a spell and disregard others based on some brand perception


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## Jungle

We are very happy with our macbook. We've had it for about four years now. Never had a single virus or spyware--in four years. No crashes, no errors, no windows problems-ever!! This product is outstanding. 

I had so many problems with my PC before that and Window's XP. The hard drive crashed and windows had to be reinstalled several times to fix problems and rid spyware / viruses. 

Now last year we got new computers at work with Window's 7. They already have the google re-direct virus and are filled with spyware. Not even half a year old. Our IT dept installed a spyware program but it can't even get rid of the malware!


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## brad

I'm actually pretty happy with both Windows and Mac OSX -- I think they're both solid operating systems that can satisify just about any requirement; OSX runs on Unix and I know a few Unix programmers who never use the normal Mac interface but spend all their time in Terminal. My sister works for a 10,000-employee pharmaceutical firm that is almost entirely Mac based; my brother is a biochemist and his lab is Mac based as well; Macs aren't just for graphic designers and other "creative" types.

I haven't used Windows 7 yet but by all accounts it is very solid and reliable. The company I work for is sticking with XP Professional for the foreseeable future and I'm okay with that -- I've rarely have it crash on me and I've never gotten any viruses or spyware in 11 years of using Windows, but I'm careful. 

The various advantages and disadvantages of Windows versus Mac have largely disappeared in recent years, and the two systems have most of the same features and functionality, just different ways of getting things done. It's true that Windows is more vulnerable to viruses, but now that Macs are gaining market share I think we'll see more attacks being directed their way as well.


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## andrewf

There seems to be a misconception that iOS is inherently more secure. I doubt that's true, at least to the extent that iOS is immune to the various exploits that plague or have plagued windows. It's mostly a function of marketshare--if you're trying to set up a bot net of thousands or millions of computers, you should target Windows.


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## brad

OSX is actually more difficult to hack than Windows; I remember reading an explanation of why (I think it has more to do with vulnerabilities in the Windows OS than any inherent invincibility of OSX) but it is true that most of the viruses get written for the more popular platform. There have been a few OSX Trojans released in the past few years, but no viruses that I'm aware of. I don't know of any Mac users who use anti-virus on their machines...but those days may be numbered.


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## m3s

andrewf said:


> There seems to be a misconception that iOS is inherently more secure. I doubt that's true, at least to the extent that iOS is immune to the various exploits that plague or have plagued windows. It's mostly a function of marketshare--if you're trying to set up a bot net of thousands or millions of computers, you should target Windows.


It's a closed system vs an open one..... Apple controls far more to maintain quality. Obviously it can still be hacked because security comes at the price of performance that is just not worth it.

When I programmed it was obvious that aptly named Windows had far more opening than OSX or Linux. I would say it's more a function of effort vs number of users.

Why steel a bike with a chain when the key is in the car next to it?


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## kcowan

I use Windoze Security Essentials and it seems to keep out all the crap. I also do not open mail from people I don't know.


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## CuriousReader

andrewf said:


> There seems to be a misconception that iOS is inherently more secure. I doubt that's true, at least to the extent that iOS is immune to the various exploits that plague or have plagued windows. It's mostly a function of marketshare--if you're trying to set up a bot net of thousands or millions of computers, you should target Windows.





mode3sour said:


> It's a closed system vs an open one..... Apple controls far more to maintain quality. Obviously it can still be hacked because security comes at the price of performance that is just not worth it.
> 
> When I programmed it was obvious that aptly named Windows had far more opening than OSX or Linux. I would say it's more a function of effort vs number of users.
> 
> Why steel a bike with a chain when the key is in the car next to it?


While true Apple has more control over quality, but I dont see that being the main reason.

Hackers / people who exploit system vulnerabilities have no problem penetrating close systems, or highly secured system with some crazy security architecture in place - so what would make iOS/OSX so special?

I agree with andrewf here - Apple's market share (especially during the net boom) is so tiny that it's not worth messing around with their system. Not that many people will get affected.

So people who say "Apple does not get viruses because it's Apple, not Windows" are just plain dumb and ignorant. As iOS/OSX market share grows, I am sure we gonna see more and more problem.

Check out recent news of malware and viruses on iOS/OSX - this is just the very beginning.

So IMO, Apple's reputation of "no malware or viruses" are totally not justifiable. The fact that people dont bother attacking your system doesnt mean your system is any good.


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## brad

kcowan said:


> I also do not open mail from people I don't know.


Although it's worth remembering that probably 99% of viruses are transmitted via emails from people you DO know. They get infected and the virus generates an email to everyone in their address book, that's one of the most common avenues by which viruses spread.


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## Xoron

I guess apple's increasing market share is making them a target now:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...y-scareware-that-brings-up-porn-websites?bn=1


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## Andre112

andrewf said:


> My next laptop will probably be an Asus. They have some really phenomenal build-quality. They might not be as pretty as Macs, but dollar for dollar you're getting much better value.


I bought an ASUS back in 2005. Never wanted to get another one from them again.


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## brad

CuriousReader said:


> So people who say "Apple does not get viruses because it's Apple, not Windows" are just plain dumb and ignorant.


No, there are real reasons why OSX is not as vulnerable as Windows: 


There is no common registry file in Mac OS X like there is in Windows, so there's no way for malware to make the global system changes that it can apply in Windows. 
Apple's web browser (Safari) is not integrated into the operating system like Internet Explorer is. This helps protect the operating system from browser-based attacks. 
Root access is disabled by default in OSX, whereas it is enabled in Windows (not sure if this is still true in Windows 7).

None of this means that Macs aren't hackable, it just means it's not as easy, or malware developers need to use different approaches. And I totally agree that more malware will be developed for Macs as their market share grows, plus malware will be developed for iOS (not the same as OSX; iOS is what the iPhone, iPod, and iPad use, OSX is what Macs use) since that is already a huge platform.


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## GOB

brad said:


> In terms of build quality, though, I don't think anything can beat Lenovo ThinkPads. I've had four of them and they were hands-down the most reliable and trouble-free laptops I've ever owned, in terms of hardware. The software of course is another story, but I never had any hardware malfunctions on any of my Lenovo machines, whereas all but one of the many Macs I've owned either came with or soon developed hardware problems. My current MacBook Pro is the only Mac I've had that's made it past three years with no hardware issues.
> 
> Lenovo might actually be a good investment but I'm not sure what their growth potential is likely to be. Like Apple, they're mainly a niche player.


Apple is definitely not a niche. Go to any college campus and tell me what laptops most kids are using. Without exaggeration, I would estimate 40-50% are macs. Guess what computers these youngsters will be using throughout their lives? Yes, current market share is relatively low, but it has doubled in a few years and that's the hardest step. Mac share continues to outgrow the overall computer market. Throw in iPod, iPhone, iPad and future revolutionary products, $65 billion in cash (growing rapidly), current low P/E and I wouldn't be at all surprised if AAPL doubles within a few years. This is assuming the broader market holds up which is an entirely different can of worms.


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## brad

GOB said:


> Apple is definitely not a niche.


It is, though, in terms of market share. About 90% of the PC market is Windows. But to me this implies that Apple has lots of room for growth -- not that they are likely to ever command a large share of the market, but in a market this enormous you can be a niche player and be highly successful.

Let's look at current growth. According to an article in IT World this month, corporate sales of Apple PCs (the computers, not the phones or tablets) grew by 66% in the second fiscal quarter of FY 2011, compared with 4.5% growth in enterprise sales for all other PCs. Mac sales grew by nearly 95% in the "very large business" category, and 90% in the small business category. Mac sales grew by 155.6% in the government sector versus 2.3% for other PCs.

The fact that Apple has such a small share of the corporate market (still only 3%) implies that there's a lot of room for growth. Even if Apple never grabs more than 5 or 6% of the corporate market, that still represents significant growth from today in terms of sales.

If I were buying I still wouldn't buy Apple stock now myself; I'd wait for the next major drop, but I do think there's a lot of growth potential left in the long term.


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## ddkay

Halted in afterhours... Steve Jobs is resigning



> CUPERTINO, Calif. --(BUSINESS WIRE)-- To the Apple Board of Directors and the Apple Community :
> I have always said if there ever came a day when I could no longer meet my duties and expectations as Apple's CEO, I would be the first to let you know. Unfortunately, that day has come.
> I hereby resign as CEO of Apple . I would like to serve, if the Board sees fit, as Chairman of the Board, director and Apple employee.
> As far as my successor goes, I strongly recommend that we execute our succession plan and name Tim Cook as CEO of Apple .
> I believe Apple's brightest and most innovative days are ahead of it. And I look forward to watching and contributing to its success in a new role.
> I have made some of the best friends of my life at Apple , and I thank you all for the many years of being able to work alongside you.
> Steve
> 
> 
> CONTACT: Apple
> Katie Cotton , 408-974-7269
> [email protected]
> or
> Apple
> Steve Dowling , 408-974-1896
> [email protected]
> 
> Source: Apple Inc.


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## larry81

Its on !!!


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## m3s

Hah, not even down 1% from yesterday


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## Abha

mode3sour said:


> Hah, not even down 1% from yesterday


Speaks to the strength of the company. The march to $500 continues


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## donald

Apple is confident with tim cook going off how they set-up his shares package.He is golden handcuffed,will be tied to performance,good news for shareholders i would think?feet to fire.


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## kcowan

Interesting article by Barry Ritholtz in the Washington Post:
Impact of Apple on key competitors


> But it is much more than just Microsoft. Today, the triple threat of iPod/iPhone/iPad has left behind a wake of overwhelmed business models, confounded managements and bereft shareholders. Let’s look at who has been hurt — and helped — by the perfectionist from Cupertino.


Barry is an Apple fanboy though.


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## MrPolarZero

Apple's products are good. I just think that they are over priced. Still many people buy from them. I'm sure they'll be there for the long run.


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## KaeJS

It's not overpriced when they are unique to everything else in the market.

Beer is overpriced.


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## m3s

KaeJS said:


> Beer is overpriced.


In Canada, yes

I smell something fishy with Polar's very generic posts and advertising signature


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## KaeJS

Was thinking the same thing as soon as I saw those signatures appear.


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## Dmoney

It's working though.... I clicked them just for fun.

Apple products are overpriced in the same way a Louis Vuitton bag is overpriced. Sure it's a functional bag, but you're buying it so everyone knows you have a LV bag.

You don't spend $1,200+ on a Mac because it's 2x better than the $600 PC. You buy it so all your friends see you with a Mac. And so you can tell anyone who will listen that "_my_ computer can't get a virus. And it _never_ crashes."

While I will likely never buy a Mac or LV product, both companies have been great to their owners. Never confuse a product you disagree with with a company that can make you money.


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## m3s

Dmoney said:


> You don't spend $1,200+ on a Mac because it's 2x better than the $600 PC. You buy it so all your friends see you with a Mac. And so you can tell anyone who will listen that "_my_ computer can't get a virus. And it _never_ crashes."


Actually many people do buy it because it's 2x better than a PC. You do have many people who either a) buy it just to have the brand image or b) refuse to buy it because of the brand image. I think both these types of people are just fools

Many expensive brands do make products well worth their price, and also cheaper crap just for the vain people. Shopping by, or swearing off brands is very callow. All brands make good and bad products.

I'm happy to pay extra for a good brand name product, but I'll actually resist buying them just from all this jealous brand hate. This is why you see so many people debadging BMWs and covering Apple logos, or maybe you haven't noticed


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## KaeJS

I don't think AAPL is the same as LV.

I mean, a purse is a purse is a purse is a purse. Its a purse. Period.

But an iPhone? I didn't buy the iPhone 4 to be "cool". I bought it because its the best phone out there. Its fast. Its sleek. Its touchscreen. It has an abundance of apps. And everything is geared FOR the iPhone. 

Always remember:

When you're one of the _Big Boys_, you get the _Big Toys_.

That's reason enough for me to buy an iPhone. Why buy an android? Sure, it has some cool third party apps, but they're also slow, can get viruses, don't have an iPod/iTunes/Appstore. The iPhone is just a better product.

With all that being said; I will never buy a Mac. They are garbage. Who cares if the OS is more stable (which it is) and that it has better media products (which it does). I will not pay $2k for a laptop that essentially is not compatible with 90% of the software out there. Its so tedious. 

iPhone and Windows is the way to go. And keep in mind that Windows is still a Big Boy, so it gets the Big Toys.

I like compatibility. I like being able to do what other people can do. I don't like restrictions. I will sacrifice brand name and stability to get what I want.

Same idea with my car. I could have bought a Mercedes, Audi or BMW, but it wasnt what I was looking for. I wanted a cheap turbocharged vehicle that was lightweight, small, and could easily upgrade suspension so it felt like a go kart. I don't need brand names and seat warmers or self adjusting steering wheels. I wanted a car that was going to be fun to drive, not luxurious.

Damn, I hate those new cars. Feels like you're floating on a cloud or in a waterbed when you drive. Almost makes me sick to my stomach (seriously). Horrible, "cushion" rides. Anybody been in a Mazda3? holy hell...


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## m3s

KaeJS said:


> Same idea with my car. I could have bought a Mercedes, Audi or BMW, but it wasnt what I was looking for. I wanted a cheap turbocharged vehicle that was lightweight, small, and could easily upgrade suspension so it felt like a go kart. I don't need brand names and seat warmers or self adjusting steering wheels. I wanted a car that was going to be fun to drive, not luxurious.
> 
> Damn, I hate those new cars. Feels like you're floating on a cloud or in a waterbed when you drive. Almost makes me sick to my stomach (seriously). Horrible, "cushion" rides. Anybody been in a Mazda3? holy hell...


Yea I'm the same windows and iPhone - more users = more developers and accessories etc. I'm considering Mac as I'm getting back into video and Mac is becoming more and more common. Windows is not really improving much - lots of annoying things they should easily have fixed by now

I was always into Japanese cars but they've really dropped the ball as well. Civic is only selling on the Civic name now. You never know what's special about a BMW until you own one, and they don't call them driver's cars for luxury. I'm not sure what the fuss is about I maintained my own Honda and the BMW is actually even easier believe it or not - suspension is easy to upgrade as well. Although they're not really suited for Canada (rough roads, winter, rust, crappy gas etc) The Korean cars are the next Japanese imo


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## stardancer

I don't know what's going on with Apple but I had a Mac and it lasted a whopping 27 months, dying on 11 July this summer. First of all, my supplier could NOT for the life of him get a Mac into his store; then I ordered on line. I just received another email this week saying that delivery has yet again been delayed.

I gave up, cancelled the order and for the same price bought 2 laptops, one for me and one for my husband. Even though Windows is extremely frustrating, it's better than having nothing.


----------



## KaeJS

^ Well, as a (small) shareholder, I'm happy to see that our products are in demand and we do not have an abundance of them lying around. 

Sorry to hear that your Mac died, though. And that you were having a rough time getting a new one.

I think you made the better choice, anyway.


----------



## larry81

Congrats on your 1000th post KaeJS.

And regarding apple: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...rain-reaction-similar-religious-devotion.html


----------



## m3s

larry81 said:


> And regarding apple: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...rain-reaction-similar-religious-devotion.html


You could say the same thing about... fans of well anything. Sports, celebs, bands, brands you name it. Heck some people sleep in front of stores for a pair of shoes, some people on RFDs practically worship credit cards and debit cards


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> Congrats on your 1000th post KaeJS.
> 
> And regarding apple: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...rain-reaction-similar-religious-devotion.html


Thank you!


----------



## larry81

mode3sour said:


> You could say the same thing about... fans of well anything. Sports, celebs, bands, brands you name it. Heck some people sleep in front of stores for a pair of shoes, some people on RFDs practically worship credit cards and debit cards


no no, apple fanboys are a unique, there even a simpsons EP about it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7L2fsubA2-c

I assume that its like being part of a sect, once you are in, you dont see whats wrong with it.

They are not 2x more expensive, they are 2x BETTER !!!

All hail Apple !


----------



## brad

I like Windows and I like Mac OSX, so I have them both. On the same machine. All modern Macs use Intel chips and can run Windows natively; they're some of the fastest Windows machines out there, and you do a clean install so there's no junkware like you get on computers from Dell.

I use Mac and Windows every day and I don't think one is particularly superior to the other; the current versions are very stable (Windows 7 is reportedly very stable; I'm still using XP and that crashes maybe once every 3-4 years; MacOSX crashed on me once about eight years ago).

I don't notice a big difference in the availability of apps; there's only one program I use regularly that's only available for Windows and not for Mac. Plus the Mac runs on Unix and lots of Unix programmers use the Mac from the command line without ever using its GUI.

The main difference I see is that Apple understands that most PC users are not geeks and have maybe 10-15 minutes per week available to learn how to use their device and its software. So they try to make everything simple, run the same way across all their devices, and as intuitive as possible. In that way an Apple product user can be more productive than a PC user because less time is spent trying to figure out how to use the thing and you can get down to work faster. When you look at Microsoft products in contrast, you can tell that many of them were designed by people who assumed that you'll be working eight hours a day on their programs and you'll get a training course. Plus they had input from focus groups who demanded that this and that feature got added until there were so many features and menu items that the end result is a mess.

Don't get me wrong, I use Word, Excel, and Outlook all day long and I mostly love them. But most people never use 90% of the functionality offered by those programs and never learn how to use them the way they were designed.

Personally I think that while the "coolness factor" of Apple is one reason behind its success, the other big reason is Apple's ability to see its devices in the context of people's lives, and to understand that people have limited time and interest in learning how to use a computer, a phone, an MP3 player, or a tablet. And if you can make the computer, phone, MP3 player, and tablet all function the same way with similar interfaces and approaches to navigation, people will be grateful (and buy those devices) because they already know how to use them.


----------



## m3s

larry81 said:


> no no, apple fanboys are a unique, there even a simpsons EP about it:
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7L2fsubA2-c
> 
> I assume that its like being part of a sect, once you are in, you dont see whats wrong with it.
> 
> They are not 2x more expensive, they are 2x BETTER !!!
> 
> All hail Apple !


Yea Simpsons makes it true. I liked the Southpark version better, but nobody reads any agreements they accept so the same could be said for anything

If you think Apple users are religiously fanatic, you should do some traveling to real religious cultures. I think the Apple haters are more religious and emotional than the users

It's not illegal to be a Jew, but it's not cool to hate them all. All hail Hitler!



brad said:


> They're some of the fastest Windows machines out there, and you do a clean install so there's no junkware like you get on computers from Dell.


Yes and oddly faster with lesser "spec" that consumers use to shop. I always do a clean install and Windows still has glitches if you push t hard enough.



brad said:


> I don't notice a big difference in the availability of apps; there's only one program I use regularly that's only available for Windows and not for Mac.


Yes Mac is getting better with programs because it is far more common then before. Quicken?



brad said:


> The main difference I see is that Apple understands that most PC users are not geeks and have maybe 10-15 minutes per week available to learn how to use their device and its software. So they try to make everything simple, run the same way across all their devices, and as intuitive as possible.


IMO intuitive is ALWAYS better even if you do have 8 hours to waste setting it up... Does Mac restrict you from any settings that Windows does not? I don't like restrictions, but there's no reason intuitive settings need to restrict. Windows has a lot of tedious things that could be setup to work better by default, but instead you are always fighting the system and their "intuitive" settings. I am constantly setting things up over and over or reversing auto formats in word etc. Windows has so many clunky things that constantly annoy you for no reason. Sure you could change it all, but it's hardly worth the effort.

I use computers to manage military operations. While I know my systems inside and out, anything that is not intuitive is a waste of precious time. We go to great lengths to have everything just work as you'd expect with as little user inputs as possible. If you need something unusual, you can change it, but everything must work by default. It's the little things that make a difference and make you say "wow they put a lot of thought into this" or "wow it read my mind" Apple does this even better than we do, and I'm sure it took a lot of work


----------



## brad

mode3sour said:


> Yes Mac is getting better with programs because it is far more common then before. Quicken?


Actually Quicken Essentials for Mac is quite good. The initial release was missing some key features but the most crucial ones got added a few months later, and I've been using it since it was first released. I tried the Windows version of Quicken a few years ago and saw that it had many more features than the Mac version, but in the end I didn't really use any of those features. When Quicken Essentials came out for the Mac I figured I'd give it a try and it does everything I need. The big drawback for many people is that it doesn't allow you to track individual investment transactions, but that's not an issue for me. It does allow you to monitor your portfolio's value and your asset allocation, which is all I need.

The one program I use daily and can't run on MacOSX is SigmaPlot, a high-end graphing program that I use for work.


----------



## donald

Im sure some of you have heard the rumor of a dividend,is this crazy talk?anybody think this has legs?Jobs gone,taking over xom as largest,old tech now?


----------



## ddkay

Look at Cisco's dividend - 1.44%. You can do better than that in a savings account! Tech stocks aren't for dividends. Once they stop growing take your money and run. Look at Adobe, gone sideways for years and they stopped paying dividends in 2005. Not as exciting as it used to be. Nice head and shoulders forming on the chart. Probably going to collapse in the next decade.

Imagine RealNetworks paying a 2% dividend in 1999 when the stock was worth $200. They had super easy access to credit, they could issue debt to pay dividends blindfolded... Six months later its $355. Then there's a 25% correction. Seems like a good idea to just sit on the stock right? After all you're getting paid to wait! A year later, RNWKD is making new highs, back to euphoria! Then it crashes. Multiple times. Now you don't get paid to wait, dividends gone. You could wait a hundred years before they invent something people actually use again, or lose everything as they liquidate common stock in bankruptcy.

Sony is another example. It used to be a $156.70 stock. Let's say the dividend is a constant of 2%. It's down 665% from March 03, 2000. It would take 325 years to recover your losses from dividends alone if the stock price had flatlined at todays price of $20.50.

The only thing Apple have going for them is it being a household brand and the BS FTF backroom deals at the patent office. That's great for Apple's of the world. Great for corporate profits and shareholder value. Sucks for a free market where the truly strongest technologies (e.g. Android) can prevail instead of getting sued out of existence. Sucks for real innovation. For now America will have to put up with the nation's brightest copying generally unprofitable consumer facing web business models like Groupon, because anyone can do it on a $5000 credit card and VC's don't know what else to throw their money at.


----------



## Abha

ddkay said:


> The only thing Apple have going for them is the BS FTF backroom deals at the patent office.


You sure that's the only thing going for Apple?

What about the countless lines of products that people go nuts trying to get. The demand for the iPhone 5 is stratospheric and it hasn't even been demoed yet. 

The iPad had no equivalent in terms of sales or popularity and the MAC line is growing at a double digit rate as people hop onto the Apple brand.

On top of this, no debt, pristine balance sheet, tons of patents, great product pipeline, soon to be great content ecosystem and so on.

That being said, I am biased as I own shares in Apple and have complete faith in management not to screw things up.


----------



## ddkay

I missed Apple's stratospheric move up. I was too young to invest. But I will catch their downside. I'm certain they will fall apart within the next 10-15 years, in two stages, it will be devastating, and I will be there ready to short.

Hopefully it will be a spectacle like YRC Worldwide. $1,463 to $0.


----------



## Abha

ddkay said:


> I missed Apple's stratospheric move up. I was too young to invest. But I will catch their downside. I'm certain they will fall apart within the next 10-15 years, in two stages, it will be devastating, and I will be there ready to short.


You're going to wait 10 - 15 years to short one of the biggest companies in the World?

I would think that all the smart money will have moved on to the next big thing (it it comes to fruition) by then.

It's not too late to hop on. It's going to $500 + just based on fundamentals. What they do beyond 2015 is up for debate but they've developed such a large margin of safety that even a few missteps are unlikely to slow the momentum.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Abha said:


> I am biased as I own shares in Apple and have complete faith in management not to screw things up.


I am biased too 4 the same reasons. 

However, I totally agree and if I had known enough when I first bought AAPL less than 2 years ago, I would not have bothered with any of the other tech stocks I purchased in that period [yawn], other than MLNX, which has had a fantastic YTD performance. 

Also agree that the price is still good for those that previously missed the boat on this one.


----------



## kcowan

If you have the fortitude, you can make good money on the Apple swings.


----------



## KaeJS

Abha said:


> You're going to wait 10 - 15 years to short one of the biggest companies in the World?
> 
> I would think that all the smart money will have moved on to the next big thing (it it comes to fruition) by then.
> 
> It's not too late to hop on. It's going to $500 + just based on fundamentals. What they do beyond 2015 is up for debate but they've developed such a large margin of safety that even a few missteps are unlikely to slow the momentum.


I agree with everything said here. ddkay, I think you should be more concerned with the current and more present times of price increases in AAPL and worry about shorting it later. And in regards to Steve Jobs, nobody even flinched. You know who flinched? People that don't own the stock because they thought their precious AAPL products at the store were going to drastically change...



kcowan said:


> If you have the fortitude, you can make good money on the Apple swings.


Definitely. 

I have to admit, I traded it a couple times from about $325ish to about $345 ish. In hindsight, though, I should have just kept my shares when I got in at $264..... 

My current buy in is at $368. If I had money to invest, I would still buy at the $400 mark.

And I checked the listings for Kijiji last night in the GTA area, my iPhone 4 16GB Black is selling in the neighbourhood of $400-$500. Not to mention most of these are locked to a specific company. My phone is not locked to a specific carrier, which gives my phone a higher value and more available buyers.

I will be selling my iPhone 4 and buying the iPhone 5 the day that it is released in Canada. (and if anyone wants it, maybe we can do a CMF deal )


----------



## m3s

KaeJS said:


> And I checked the listings for Kijiji last night in the GTA area, my iPhone 4 16GB Black is selling in the neighbourhood of $400-$500. Not to mention most of these are locked to a specific company. My phone is not locked to a specific carrier, which gives my phone a higher value and more available buyers.
> 
> I will be selling my iPhone 4 and buying the iPhone 5 the day that it is released in Canada. (and if anyone wants it, maybe we can do a CMF deal )


Yup I bought my 3GS off Craigslist for $500 locked to Rogers. Unlocked it myself and sold for $500 when the 4 came out

Bought an iPhone 4 unlocked and I'm sure I can sell it for a good price when the 5 comes out (Apple doesn't sell them unlocked in Europe) I need to take a 2 year contract anyways to get decent cell coverage in Europe so I might as well buy a €99 iPhone 5 with it.

They hold their value very well, which is not the case for Android devices.


----------



## kcowan

mode3sour said:


> They hold their value very well, which is not the case for Android devices.


My Samsung Galaxy GIO cost $67 plus $10 to unlock it so yes it will sell for much less in a couple of years!


----------



## KaeJS

Yeah, they definitely do hold their value.

People that have known me in person for a few years always wonder how I've had the 3G, 3GS, and now the 4. I always try to explain to them that upgrading only costs maybe $100 out of pocket. 

Fools


----------



## m3s

kcowan said:


> My Samsung Galaxy GIO cost $67 plus $10 to unlock it so yes it will sell for much less in a couple of years!


That's a stellar price for what it is, although it lacks some key features for me like quad-band. The iPhones have cost me practically nothing without even considering all the devices they replace.


----------



## kcowan

mode3sour said:


> That's a stellar price for what it is, although it lacks some key features for me like quad-band. The iPhones have cost me practically nothing without even considering all the devices they replace.


The GIO is quad band. I am currently using it in France.

But I agree that being absolutely current is cheaper with an iPhone.


----------



## andrewf

I wouldn't count on being able to get $500 for a three year old phone. Sounds like a ponzi scheme.

Batteries don't last forever, and you are at Apple's mercy if the battery in your Craigslist purchase needs to be replaced. When will they start to refuse to replace batteries in old devices because you really should just be buying a new one.


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> I wouldn't count on being able to get $500 for a three year old phone. Sounds like a ponzi scheme.
> 
> Batteries don't last forever, and you are at Apple's mercy if the battery in your Craigslist purchase needs to be replaced. When will they start to refuse to replace batteries in old devices because you really should just be buying a new one.


Why should you buy a new one? When I bought a 3Gs off Craigslist at first I called few cheaper ones and they were junk for little savings. The $500 was LNIB and there are many of them in practically new condition

The batteries are lithium ion and mine shows no sign if degradation. I will easily sell it for $500 to someone who doesn't want a contract, of which there are many many people. Even if the battery degrades a bit, it's worth money as a 32 GB iPod, a camera that tags geo/angle/bearing/time data, a nav system etc. Heck some fools pay $250 for TV remotes

iPhones actually hold their value better that USDs or EUROs at the moment, and just about as liquid


----------



## andrewf

In five years a 3GS will be worthless. Okay, maybe $20 if in good working order. Why on earth would someone spend $500 in 5 years for an 8 year old device when newer, better devices are available new? Unless you think smartphones will resist commoditization and their prices will stay high, unlike every other consumer electronic device in history.


----------



## m3s

Who said anything about 5 years? I bought and sold a 3GS for $500. You could buy a iPhone 4 now and sell it for the same price in a year or 2. I do the same thing with used cars and video games etc - if you sell them soon enough they hold value. iPhones are the easiest though

Enjoy buying your new cameras, nav systems, electronics and new cars to throw out


----------



## Toronto.gal

As I'm sure you all savvy investors are aware, AAPL has reached a new high today of $413+ [while NFLX is close to a 52 week low].


----------



## Abha

Toronto.gal said:


> As I'm sure you all savvy investors are aware, AAPL has reached a new high today of $413+ [while NFLX is close to a 52 week low].


slow and steady wins the race. I suspect somethings going on behind the scenes that us small investors are not privy to yet. We'll probably see some news in the next 72 hours.


----------



## brad

Well, iOS5 is getting close to release, which will add a bunch of very useful new features and further cement Apple's lead in the tablet market. The new iCloud service is due out soon and there will likely be an announcement about the new iPhone before long.


----------



## KaeJS

Sittin' pretty! 

*andrewf,* the batteries barely show any signs of degradation, and if you buy an iPhone brand new, it will easily hold its value for 3 years.

An iPhone 3G is 5 years old and it is still selling for ~$150.


----------



## Dmoney

mode3sour said:


> iPhones actually hold their value better that USDs or EUROs at the moment, and just about as liquid


That's Apples plan. Soon the price of everything is going to be quoted in iPhones. That used car is going to cost you 7 iPhone 3G's and 5 iPhone 5's


----------



## donald

I stepped in the day before jobs resigned,i know it was priced in but im glad its humming along,i thought i was in for a elevator ride down to 300,so far so good,good call abha so far your right with the stock entering 400,4 weeks ago you and kaejs were on the money with your call."step in before it enters in the 4s".


----------



## andrewf

Batteries fail. It's not always linear. I have seen dead Apple devices. They are not infallible.

I'm sorry if it bothers people, but when someone says nonsense like 'this consumer electronics device that depreciates at 50% a year is as good as cash', I have to call bullsh!t.


----------



## Dmoney

andrewf said:


> Batteries fail. It's not always linear. I have seen dead Apple devices. They are not infallible.
> 
> I'm sorry if it bothers people, but when someone says nonsense like 'this consumer electronics device that depreciates at 50% a year is as good as cash', I have to call bullsh!t.


Have to say I'm not a fan of Apple product fanboys... but love the stock... which is built on the backs of the fanboys. The company is a marketing juggernaut and if they can keep it up they'll easily hit 500+

http://thebestpageintheuniverse.net/c.cgi?u=macs_cant

Pretty much sums up the problem with people who use macs and from a few comments in this thread, iPhons can be added to the list. 

I'm glad you've found a product that you like, but don't try and shove it down everyone elses throat.


----------



## donald

Looks like the bus is leaving,money is flowing in,see where she closes today.


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> Batteries fail. It's not always linear. I have seen dead Apple devices. They are not infallible.
> 
> I'm sorry if it bothers people, but when someone says nonsense like 'this consumer electronics device that depreciates at 50% a year is as good as cash', I have to call bullsh!t.


I don't get it andrewf... you will irrationally hate on a brand until you're blue in the face when people make rational points about their product. I was obviously joking about it being currency, but it's a fact I bought/sold it for the same price and many people could easily do the same or for the cost of 1 electronic device. They hold their value better than any consumer electronic I know

It's also futile to argue the weakness of lithium ion batteries because it's the current standard in all devices. Personally I don't invest in Apple nor buy all their products. I actually invest in tech/components used in all mobile devices and lithium batteries (both of which beat apple stock handily and don't suffer from brand trends) Again I don't see how it's any different to irrationally hate a brand than to love it unconditionally.

I fully expect Google to do as good or better and I'd be the first to buy their phone if it was best for me. Either way my stocks that benefit no matter how all the brand haters/lovers are trending tomorrow morning


----------



## ddkay

AAPL hit a strong resistance level of $422.86 today at noon, it technically has a little more room to go, but I expect a mean reversion unwind back down to the $380s, hitting the June 20th lower trend line over the next few weeks


----------



## andrewf

Sorry, mode. I find most kinds of boosterism annoying, but Mac fandom is particularly grating. My point about your selling a device used for what you paid for it is that should be considered typical. Apple products are not miraculous. They depreciate rapidly like all other consumer electronics.

Based on your previous posts I had you pegged as a true believer.

I guess I don't get it. I have products that I like, but my preference does not become religion. I am willing to concede or even volunteer flaws and ways it might improve. It does not become important to my identity that I protect that product from all criticism, valid or otherwise.


----------



## m3s

However.. it seems to have become important to many people's identity to emotionally attack Apple products no matter what. You can't keep painting all iPhone users as religious fanatics; even Grandmas who never heard of Steve Jobs are using them now.

It is typical for iPhones to hold their value. This is based on my experience, and several friends who've moved as well, and many rational sources. This is because most people already have a contract or don't want another one, along with the popularity and build quality

Last year a used iPhone 4G was $400-500. This year it's the same. Last years Android phones were $400-500, this year even a brand new flagship Nexus One is worth $200-300 (typical 1 year depreciation). Please grind your emotional axe somewhere else unless you have something rational to back it up


----------



## Abha

mode3sour said:


> Last year a used iPhone 4G was $400-500. This year it's the same. Last years Android phones were $400-500, this year even a brand new flagship Nexus One is worth $200-300 (typical 1 year depreciation). Please grind your emotional axe somewhere else unless you have something rational to back it up


To be fair, Google is on its 3rd iteration of the Nexus series this October while the iPhone 4 completed a full product cycle.

I do agree that people bash Apple a little too much, but the same could be said for any stock. I remember a while back we had an IBM thread going and people including myself were attacking IBM for no reason.

In any case, even as an Apple shareholder, I love the new Android phones (HTC Evo, Samsung Galaxy II etc) but I also own Google too (so I hope they monetize Android at some point)


----------



## humble_pie

little bear if you are sure about this scenario in apple, then what you would do is put on a calendar spread like the one atrpdocbiz told us about ... the one where he or she made a killing. (doc a thousand apologies if i've got this wrong.)

first, figure out the likely date of the looming iphone5 announcement.

then buy a put that's later in time than announcement date & sell another put - this time an otm put - that precedes announcement date. 

if all goes well, the rising froth as we approach announce date will cause that sold put to expire worthless. The trader will get to keep the premium that was paid to him, though.

the surviving put should appreciate nicely once the announcement frenzy is over & the stock begins to drop as per your forecast.

would i do this ?
no.
too rich for my blood.


----------



## andrewf

I think the burden of proof is on the person making the more remarkable claim.

Do you have any evidence that Apple products don't depreciate? That would be quite remarkable. If they don't, I can't see it being sustainable--it's like a Ponzi scheme. Eventually you run out of new buyers for the ever growing supply of devices.

Also, I kinda question whether I've been doing any Apple bashing. I'm questioning some of the more miraculous claims. I haven't made any negative comments today other than the obvious:

-Apple devices depreciate like all consumer electronics
-they use Li batteries which degrade with time and have been designed to be make these batteries difficult to replace.
-Apple devices sometimes fail, like all consumer electronics


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> Do you have any evidence that Apple products don't depreciate?


I'm willing to believe the iPhone holds its value, but it's a special case. Of course other Apple products depreciate; I'm selling my old PowerBook G4 circa 2004 and I'll be lucky to get $100 for it...I paid about $1,800. An iMac bought last year cannot be sold for anything near today's asking price for a new one. You can buy refurbished Apple products (except iPhones) through Apple's own online store for less than you pay in the main online store.


----------



## ddkay

@humble I'm going to try that on tos tomorrow. I'd like to see how the week ends with the Fed announcement before deciding what to do on my real account.

It's mostly a macro bet. If Europe doesn't fall apart AAPL could just as easily track the top trendline of the fib fan like it did from March-June 2010. But short term upside is limited IMO, a stock will rarely go over a fib fan line after an important bottom like 2009 (unless its a super manipulated penny stock), and it never stays above for any extended period of time. Best case scenario, Abha's $500 call is very realistic, the soonest it could happen IMO is January 2012, probably in anticipation of and after Q1 earnings.


----------



## atrp2biz

humble_pie said:


> little bear if you are sure about this scenario in apple, then what you would do is put on a calendar spread like the one atrpdocbiz told us about ... the one where he or she made a killing. (doc a thousand apologies if i've got this wrong.)


LOL, not exactly a killing. Neutral strategies are nickels and dimes, especially when they hit pre-determined exits. I exited on my lower threshold, so elevated IVs helped maintain profitability.


----------



## m3s

Abha said:


> To be fair, Google is on its 3rd iteration of the Nexus series this October while the iPhone 4 completed a full product cycle.


That's part of the point. Typical consumer electronics are replaced 4 times a year and made of disposable material. An iPhone is current to the average joe for ~2 years, so it just happens to hold value. The only reason it's argued is because it's Apple.

I'm actually a much bigger fan of Google than Apple and I can happily point out the flaws in either's devices. I always like to hear why people get Android phones but it's usually only because they hate Apple. I like them both but have to chose one, and for most friends I will recommend the same for non-religious reasons



andrewf said:


> I think the burden of proof is on the person making the more remarkable claim.
> 
> Do you have any evidence that Apple products don't depreciate? That would be quite remarkable. If they don't, I can't see it being sustainable--it's like a Ponzi scheme. Eventually you run out of new buyers for the ever growing supply of devices.


If you read back you're taking my posts out of context. I never meant they hold their value indefinitely. A 1-2 year old model is the same as a brand new one and people have the contract issue. So you can buy/sell on a yearly basis and stay current for little cost


----------



## Eder

My grandaughter has never heard of Blackberry or Android but owns a 3g iPhone and wants the latest one for Christmas. She also owns an iPod. She spends all her allowance/baby sitting $$ on air time, iTunes & apps.

That is how Apple prints $$.

I'll keep tabs on her and her friends, once something else is cooler we can short the crap out of AAPL.

(I think this will work...I polled my daughter & her friends steady about LeChateau among other cool clothing stores...she said they were starting to suck and I sold at about $11)...she loves Lululemon.


----------



## Abha

Eder said:


> My grandaughter has never heard of Blackberry or Android but owns a 3g iPhone and wants the latest one for Christmas. She also owns an iPod. She spends all her allowance/baby sitting $$ on air time, iTunes & apps.
> 
> That is how Apple prints $$.
> 
> I'll keep tabs on her and her friends, once something else is cooler we can short the crap out of AAPL.
> 
> (I think this will work...I polled my daughter & her friends steady about LeChateau among other cool clothing stores...she said they were starting to suck and I sold at about $11)...she loves Lululemon.


Please let us all know what she thinks. 

Peter Lynch was a master at this strategy as he used to follow his wife around in the mall to see what her and other women were raving about.


----------



## larry81

Apple products are so good that their value actually increase over time.

All hail Apple !


----------



## ddkay

iPhone 5 is supposed to be unveiled at a media event on October 4 and sales begin a few weeks later according to AllThingsD. The nearest options are October 7 weekly and October 22 monthly.


----------



## humble_pie

little bear i never cut things quite so fine - prefer to crumble along being grateful for any fruits that fall into my pie - but aapl is reliable, if company itself has announced it'll unveil at media show oct 4 this will probably happen.

me i never play in the weeklies. But for the 1st time i did look at aapl sep 23s expiring this week. This is a virtual tos game, right ? so here goes.

something like sell 23 sep 410Ps (1.80-1.85) or sell 23 sep 23 415Ps (3.15-3.25). Buy 22 oct 390Ps (6.55-6.65.)

quotes changing as i write so not accurate.

hey if it's only virtual tos why not go for broke. Sell the 415Ps for net debit of 3.50 (could wrangle the price of the octobers a bit.)

early next week like mon or tues get out there & start selling again.


----------



## andrewf

So you would buy a used device for what a new device costs? You bring up the contract issue. Part of the price of the device is paid over time, through amortization in the contract. So if you can get a device for $400 with a $80/month 2 year contract, or you can buy the device used for $400 without a contract and can use an equivalent data plan that costs $60/month. Then for the new device, your cost of ownership is not just the $400 upfront, but also the $20/month amortized over two years, or an additional $480. Ignoring time value of money, the value of the device fell from $880 at purchase to $400 after two years.

No sane person would pay as much for a device covered in someone else's smudgy fingerprints, bacteria, earwax, scratches, etc. as a brand new device. So selling a two year old device for the same as what a new device costs now is too good to be true. Indeed, it is. The true 'new' price is higher than stated, as part of the device cost is hidden/amortized in the cost of service.

Cheers.


----------



## ddkay

You mean keep selling weeklies as the date approaches Oct 22? Also yes I'm only doing this on paperMoney, the only time it's okay to blow up an account.  I've entered in the sell sep 23 415P / buy oct 22 390p combo for now.


----------



## humble_pie

good girl. Yes, sell the weeklies every week, appears there will be 4 of them (5 including this week) until the long puts expire fri 21 oct.

strike price to sell next mon or tues to be decided later, ie decide this fri thru next mon. I've never traded the weeklies, there are probably specialized skills but i don't know them, am winging on a prayer. My gut feel says prepare to sell mon or tues, ie early each week. In this put case, only prolonging to wednesday if stock starts falling dramatically on the mon or the tues (in that case, may have to sell a lower strike ... value of the octobers will have increased, though.)

in meantime 1st order of biz is not to get assigned this week. Speaking of biz where is atrp2biz, his opinion or her opinion would of course override my own, he is the expert in calendars. Which this is not, at least not quite ... it's a calendar/vertical spread combo called a diagonal.

you'll see that nasty $25 risk window which has been opened. Thank gawd it's only tos.


----------



## humble_pie

ps if at any time there is a significant windfall profit, that'll be the time to close out both sides & exit ...


----------



## brad

humble_pie said:


> but aapl is reliable, if company itself has announced it'll unveil at media show oct 4 this will probably happen.


FYI, unless I missed something, the October 4 date is still a product of the rumour mill and has not been confirmed or announced by Apple. In the past few years the rumour mill has become more accurate (it used to be about 20% accurate, now it seems to be about 80% accurate) so it's entirely possible that October 4 will be the date, but I wouldn't put any money on it until Apple has made the official announcement themselves.


----------



## humble_pie

thankx brad - proof that 3 heads are better than 1.

in real life if i were betting on the iphone5 unveil i'd have gone for puts farther out in time - novembers, decembers, even januaries (but then i'd have to reckon up earnings announcements.) The problem is that the option premiums in aapl are so horribly expensive. Premiums rise the farther out in time one goes (not linearly.) And in this strategy one is buying the farther. I don't even want to look at the cost of an apple january put.

anyhow, the die is cast. Little bear has probably put on the spread by now. It's all imaginary, so we shall see what we shall see.


----------



## m3s

larry81 said:


> Apple products are so good that their value actually increase over time.
> 
> All hail Apple !


Haha it can actually be true if you buy an unlocked one in Canada and sell it sealed to someone in a country that on has carrier locked versions.

Not sure I would bet much on the next iPhone announcement, it's likely just an iPhone 4"s" or minor updates


----------



## brad

mode3sour said:


> Not sure I would bet much on the next iPhone announcement, it's likely just an iPhone 4"s" or minor updates


I think it's pretty clear that they'll announce iPhone 5 soon. Apple has been maintaining a fairly consistent seasonal cycle in their product announcements. New iPods are announced in the autumn, in time to promote holiday sales. New iPhones have been announced in summer or autumn for much the same reasons. There's been enough credible intelligence leaking out over the past few months from loose-lipped equipment suppliers etc. to indicate that iPhone 5 is in the works and should be announced soon. 

That said, I wouldn't put too much stock in what the rumour sites say, including All Things D and Information Week, all the iphone5 websites, etc.


----------



## m3s

Yea but they also do minor updates every other year like 3gs and iPad 2. Pumping up the specs of the iPhone would likely be at the expense of battery endurance, but who knows. Dual sim card maybe, screen edge to edge, better cameras etc. No real game changers, but enough to keep the ball rolling


----------



## ddkay

Undoubtedly a strong stock. But still range bound. Highs and lows of APPL and others for today:










P.S. I'm not female


----------



## brad

mode3sour said:


> Pumping up the specs of the iPhone would likely be at the expense of battery endurance, but who knows.


In general I think we should expect evolutionary rather than revolutionary changes. But iOS5 itself could be considered a game-changer; it's worth checking out what's coming because it's coming soon and there's a lot to like: http://www.apple.com/ca/ios/ios5/. It may be that a few features in iOS5 will only work in the new iPhone (and only in iPad2 not the first-generation model); they've done this in the past to entice people to upgrade their hardware so they can use the new features.


----------



## ddkay

Haha right, a drop down notification bar and OTA updates are the new "this changes everything!!!" Meanwhile other mobile OS like Maemo and Android have had that function for years. You gotta hand it to Apple though they really know how to milk the upgrade cow.


----------



## K-133

brad said:


> In general I think we should expect evolutionary rather than revolutionary changes. But iOS5 itself could be considered a game-changer; it's worth checking out what's coming because it's coming soon and there's a lot to like: http://www.apple.com/ca/ios/ios5/. It may be that a few features in iOS5 will only work in the new iPhone (and only in iPad2 not the first-generation model); they've done this in the past to entice people to upgrade their hardware so they can use the new features.


I wonder what's been patented. I think Chapter's might have a case to sue for infringement on the idea of news stands.

AirPlay Mirroring looks pretty cool.


----------



## m3s

iOS 5 is officially compatible with 3Gs and 4. It has lots of great little progressions that you would naturally expect. Compared to some revisions of Windows, it goes to show how great heated competition is for tech

I like the photo from the lock screen and reminders triggered by GPS. As usual lots of stuff you could already do with apps and jailbreak but integration is smoother


----------



## andrewf

They are also experts at copying others and selling themselves as the cutting edge of innovation. They don't innovate much, really. Their strong suit is industrial design (ie, looks cool and minimalist), software integration, and marketing.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> They are also experts at copying others and selling themselves as the cutting edge of innovation.


You're talking about Microsoft, right? 

Apple has certainly stolen its share of ideas (the basic concepts for the Mac interface and mouse were originally developed by Xerox PARC), but I'm not sure how you can say they don't innovate when they essentially developed the interface that is used on all personal computers today (started by Mac and copied by Windows), plus they developed the iPhone interface that has now been copied by all their competitors.

For the millions of people who use iOS4 and earlier on iPhones, iPod Touches, and iPads, the enhancements in OS5 really are "the next big thing" even if other mobile systems already have them, because the Apple users have been doing without. Remember how long it took for them to add copy and paste?


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> They are also experts at copying others and selling themselves as the cutting edge of innovation. They don't innovate much, really. Their strong suit is industrial design (ie, looks cool and minimalist), software integration, and marketing.


That's just the old pot calling a kettle black. Once tech exists it's all copied and there's nothing wrong with that imo. Windows was a blatant copy of Mac and Galaxy devices are even banned in Germany and other countries for copying now. Just let competition do its thing or we'll only end up with incomplete packages from each company. I think Galaxy devices were a great alternative and now they're banned because they looked too similar iPhones and iPads 

These are such basics things it's like saying everyone who made a car with 4 wheels and a windshield copied Ford's intellectual property


----------



## ddkay

I agree you shouldn't be able to rip off physical design attributes but prohibiting software makers to use similar features is dumb. Patent law is dumb.


----------



## KaeJS

mode3sour said:


> Just let competition do its thing or we'll only end up with incomplete packages from each company.


Exactly.


----------



## andrewf

I agree that Microsoft also copies shamelessly.

I have no problem with copying. I just don't like passing it off as novel and unprecedented. I'd rather companies be honest and say that they are doing something tried and true, but doing it better.


----------



## larry81

Apple is so magnificent that... http://thingsappleisworthmorethan.tumblr.com/


----------



## ddkay

Here's how that AAPL options trade is working out so far.

I called the selling soon but didn't expect it to happen until next week so I'm losing big time on the weekly.

Intraday low was $400










(I reset the counters so the PnL is just from this one trade, the account is originally funded with $100k)

Thankfully the trade is a little hedged, hopefully next week I can recover these weekly losses.


----------



## humble_pie

it's not the losing on the short september side that is the big worry. It's the fact that the sep put is going to be assigned tomorrow unless miracle happens, so it *has* to be taken out. Closed. Between now & 3.55 pm tomorrow.

now comes the interesting part. A larger account could afford to pay to close - just another trade that needs correction, sigh - while keeping the long october 390Ps open so as to continue working the spread.

however a small account may not have either the cash or the margin to pay to close, so it would have to sell the octobers in order to generate the $$ to buy back the septembers.

the which? decision depends also on the MI - how many contracts are involved. Like one? or 10?

right now closing both sides produces a small credit to slightly offset the cost, which i recall was something like net (3.50.)

like i said, too rich for my blood.

btw did you happen to notice that selling the sep 410Ps would have been the far better choice. At one point it was even possible to make a few coins on the overall strategy.


----------



## ddkay

Both were only 1 contract (QTY column), but I understand these can turn into really expensive mistakes lol. So it cost $1g to buy my own weekly 415p contract to close the trade and now I'm only holding the October monthly 390p's, which without a doubt now we'll reach in that timeframe.










If Apple has a 10%+ retrace it might spook some people out, maybe the top of the head in the head and shoulders pattern, the right shoulder will be hope, and the last leg down will be due to disastrous new management.


----------



## Argonaut

ddkay, I think you're making options trading more complicated than it needs to be. You've been right on some of your bearish calls, so you could have bought SPY puts around the 1210 mark. Then your biggest problem would be wishing it wasn't a paper trade.


----------



## humble_pie

you bought it already ? there still is maybe something like .50 theoretical value in that sep put premium, which will have to decay over the next trading day-and-a-half, so i think i might have waited ... i mean, as long as we're flying through the 1001 nights on tos, why not see where else the magic carpet might take us in the next few hours ...

btw there seems to be something odd about your tos quotes when they're showing you that you bought @ 10.90. I don't think the sep 415P has been offered at that price for hours. I'm wondering if tos shows just the mid-point between bid & ask ... a price that's hard to capture & usually not at all on a crazy day like today. In reality trader seeking to buy back sep 415P would have had to pay north of 11, something like 11.10-11.40.

also Q: why is tos showing that low commish of 2.95. I thought the tos plan is to carry on charging regular tdw commissions.


----------



## ddkay

@humble I've closed it. I'm not sure about the cheap commission, that's a good question... The limit order I first used bid 11.10, but I changed to market and the contract was cheaper.

@Argo coulda woulda shoulda, this AAPL monthly $390p would have cost less than $100 yesterday and netted me ~$630 if I'd cashed out when I took that screenshot today. OTOH writing lucrative contracts and making delta neutral trades is an art.


----------



## humble_pie

you closed both sides ?

i thought you were keeping the long octobers open.

what a pity ... they're 14.95 bid now, so the overall net position is green & gaining ... with a month to go ... magic carpet quite tippy & hard to steer ... rider has to lie flat feet first like a luge racer ...


----------



## ddkay

I'm still holding onto the monthly put for more possible downside. I'll happily close that remaining side of the trade if my account springs back a little over $100K. I can post another update tomorrow.


----------



## Argonaut

ddkay said:


> OTOH writing lucrative contracts and making delta neutral trades is an art.


It may be an art, but most artists end up broke or missing an ear.

As a side note: Everyone talks about Picasso, but has anyone actually seen his art? He can't paint worth a damn.


----------



## brad

Argonaut said:


> As a side note: Everyone talks about Picasso, but has anyone actually seen his art? He can't paint worth a damn.


Actually if you look at his early non-abstract paintings you'll see that he was a pretty accomplished realist when he wanted to be. Here's a self-portrait from 1896:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Argonaut said:


> 1. It may be an art, but most artists end up broke or missing an ear.
> 
> 2. Everyone talks about Picasso...


1. Argo, you made me laugh so hard. 

2. Not everyone! Don't want to sound ignorant or offend the art connoisseurs here, but never did like nor appreciate Picasso's chaotic style.


----------



## m3s

Argonaut said:


> It may be an art, but most artists end up broke or missing an ear.
> 
> As a side note: Everyone talks about Picasso, but has anyone actually seen his art? He can't paint worth a damn.


That's the thing about art, not everyone gets it or can be successful at it


----------



## moneymaking

I never really liked Apple to be honest.


----------



## crazyjackcsa

Argonaut said:


> It may be an art, but most artists end up broke or missing an ear.
> 
> As a side note: Everyone talks about Picasso, but has anyone actually seen his art? He can't paint worth a damn.


The joke's on you then. It's bizarre on purpose. Picasso knew it and has stated that the weirder it got, the more the critics loved it, so he just got nuttier and nuttier. The rub is of course, is that he was a fantastic painter, so there's a good dollop of genius mixed in with the cuckoo-bananas.


----------



## humble_pie

how strange to go from tech talk to the art titans of the previous century. Picasso was a monumental artist who re-invented himself many times over. Through the prime of his life - the early, blue & rose periods - his works were fairly representational.

as an older artist picasso became influenced by africa & cubism; he's probably best known for these abstract periods, but i for one especially love the harlequin paintings of the earlier periods.

picasso lived & painted into his 70s & 80s. It was only in those late years that his work visibly deteriorated. It's often said that many of the "works" bearing his late signatures were actually churned out by students gathered near his home in the south of france. This is so well-known & accepted that apparently those works have no value. There is no reason to let this last unfortunate chapter mar the lifetime contribution of a great artist.

it's embarassing that anyone would post that picasso can't paint worth a damn ... points solely to the ignorance of the poster & not at all to the reputation of the legendary spaniard.

http://vimeo.com/5953221


----------



## Toronto.gal

Aesthetic appreciation/understanding of abstract art [even realism] is not easy to do without having studied art history, which I did not, so I'm definitely ignorant on the subject.

Anyway, as the saying goes, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. 

Back on topic:


----------



## ddkay




----------



## ddkay

AAPL is pretty much one of the only things consistently outperforming the market, it even has the lead on Gold now.. When this cracks we probably won't be too far from the bottom. Lost money on my monthly 390p today, losing value to time decay. Range today for AAPL was 395.56 - 406.74. 390p contract worth $500.


----------



## humble_pie

ddkay i suppose it's samsung issue that's bashing aapl ... you've got a total net gain on the pair spread, even taking into consideration that loss on the sep 415ps, if you sell the oct 390p now

... or hang on minute by minute while trying to assess how much harm samsung can do ... but

i think max harm is already baked in ... did you close ?


----------



## humble_pie

bear is you daid ?

they wuz 18.60-18.70 but dropping now.

sell north of 18 = 30% gain in 2 days ...


----------



## humble_pie

sigh

this is the trouble when the kidz stay up all night ...


----------



## ddkay

The low is only 391.30 still, but I can close now for $1700 profit... Alright that's what I did. Closed the trade by selling the put at 17.00 LMT. After discounting the ~$1k loss on the write I keep ~$700 net.


----------



## brad

Score another point for the rumour mill: Apple announced today that they will indeed hold an iPhone event on October 4:

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/apple-to-announce-new-iphone/


----------



## m3s

I hope they do. Only because I need a 2 year contract to get decent 3G coverage all over the EU and it comes with a €99 iPhone. I may just buy one with a contract and sell it sealed on eBayz (for a profit).


----------



## ddkay

ddkay said:


> AAPL is pretty much one of the only things consistently outperforming the market, it even has the lead on Gold now.. When this cracks we probably won't be too far from the bottom. Lost money on my monthly 390p today, losing value to time decay. Range today for AAPL was 395.56 - 406.74. 390p contract worth $500.


Apple stock was looking very weak today, mostly red on a green day. It could collapse at any moment and take the rest of the market with it. Closed at $399.26. I wish I could buy puts again but they're too expensive.


----------



## ddkay

***RTRS: Amazon (AMZ) CEO says Kindle Touch will start at USD 99

See ya later, Apple


----------



## brad

Kindle Touch and Kindle Fire look great, basically filling a niche at the bottom end of the tablet market (and high end of e-reader market) for people who are only interested in reading books, magazines, watch films, listen to music, browse the web. Will they cut into Apple's iPad sales? Probably a little, but I'd be surprised if they have much effect. Barnes and Noble should be much more worried as the new Kindle products blow the Nook out of the water.

My guess is this will be a blip for Apple, causing a short-term dip that will present opportunities for those who want to jump in at lower share prices.


----------



## kcowan

Markets down, Apple up in early trading. What has Kindle got to do with it?


----------



## ddkay

AAPL is in decision making time, it either needs to break to the upside or break to the downside.

If I just bought this stock at $400 going long I would place a stop by the amber warning lights at $390. If I had bought AAPL anytime before July 2011, I would put a stop at $360, the final exit window for this year before the laws of gravity take over for real.










Ideally, this will drift sideways until the iPhone 5 event on October 4, and then smart money will sell the news.


----------



## andrewf

Somewhat off-topic, but can you explain to me why it matters what you paid? Only reason I can think of is capital gains taxation. Otherwise, the purchase price is a sunk cost and should not influence your decision-making.


----------



## ddkay

It doesn't really matter what price you paid, I was just spelling out some round number exit points relative to entry price.

What do you mean sunk costs.. accept 20%+ losses and watch the ship sink? No thank you.


----------



## KaeJS

He means the sunk cost is the fact that you already paid x amount for your shares, so why would you adjust your exit point based on those shares.

Either you think $390 is the drop off point, or you think $360 is the exit point. If $390 is an exit at x price, and $360 is an exit at another x price, why would you even bother getting out at the price of $360 when you could get out at $390?


----------



## el oro

I disagree with those exit points.


----------



## ddkay

$390 and $360 are two separate drop off points with strong support. If you bought earlier in the year there's more "hope" cushion so you could take the lower number. You could sell at either, or even now... it's relative to your entry price and how much loss you're comfortable taking. $400 -> $390 is only 2.5% for example.

The idea of going "long" is that with magical news out of Europe and next weeks iPhone event AAPL will rally back over $420.

If you have other ideas post 'em.


----------



## Sampson

I'm not much for technical analysis, but are you showing we are about to go back in time?


----------



## ddkay

I'm showing another infliction point in Apple's stock, emotions are coiling up and investors soon need to decide whether they want it up or down, that decision will be made based on how the macro story unfolds.

If you bought at $400 yesterday, today or on September 16th when the price was also $400, defining a 2.5% max loss isn't for tax reasons (that's just a side effect). It's a trend followers technique for proper risk management...


----------



## el oro

A shorter term exit would be below your uptrending line, which would be around where your first exit point is. 

The second, more importantly, longer-term exit point would be below the uptrend line from the '09 bottom, which is currently ~346 and rising. See the DOW/TSX/S&P for examples on what happened immediately after that line failed. This is more of a trend following exit vs. using a fixed number, similar to andrewf's and other moving average methods.

I can see a strong short-term bear case for AAPL right now, trading Oct options.


----------



## humble_pie

not clear about these points:

- kindle fire can or cannot do email ? 

- can or cannot browse the web/connect to websites ?

- if no, useless for discount brokers. QED.

- we already know it has no videos, movies.

- where does the $99 price come from ? here yesterday, gone today.

the impression i get is: Fire is going to be the xmas stocking stuffer, looks like crazy popular thru the season, but longterm kindle will never be an apple killer.


----------



## Argonaut

The old Kindle I have can browse the web and do email, albeit not very well. I'm sure with the Fire it will be greatly improved, and in colour of course. My Kindle is nice for reading books, although I don't read as often as I should.


----------



## ddkay

So apparently it's $199, that must have been a typo on Reuters part. Amazon already has a platform to serve books, music, movies and TV shows. It runs Android OS so you can do all those things.

The form factor (7") is too small for my liking. To be honest it reminds me of the PlayBook, it's probably going to flop. A larger version is supposed to come out next year. I use my iPad 2 sparingly, I probably won't be getting another tablet. I would be more interested to see Amazon get a leg in the smartphone market.

Comparison with the Barnes & Noble Nook Color:


> Operating System: Both devices run on Android. Kindle Fire runs on Amazon's customized version of Android, while Nook Color runs on Android 2.2
> 
> Display: Both devices have a 7-inch screen, multi-touch display with IPS (in-plane switching) technology and provide 1024 x 600 pixel resolution at 169 ppi and 16 million colors.
> 
> Dimensions: Kindle Fire has a dimension of 190 mm x 120 mm x 11.4 mm and weighs just 0.91 pounds. Nook Color has a dimension of 205 mm L x 127 mm x 12.2 mm and weighs 0.99 pounds.
> 
> Processor: Kindle Fire is powered by a dual-core OMAP 4 processor from Texas Instruments, while Nook Color has a Texas Instruments' ARM Cortex-A8 processor running at 800 MHz.
> 
> Camera: Both devices don't have camera.
> 
> Storage: Kindle Fire offers 8GB internal memory and no external memory. But it offers free storage of all Amazon digital content in the Amazon Cloud. Nook Color also offers 8GB internal memory, which is expandable via 32GB micro SD card.
> 
> RAM: Nook Color has a 512MB RAM, while there is no word on Kindle Fire's RAM.
> 
> Connectivity: Both tablets run on Wi-Fi 802.11 b/g/n
> 
> Media Formats Supported: Amazon's tablet supports Kindle (AZW), TXT, PDF, unprotected MOBI, PRC natively, Audible (Audible Enhanced (AA, AAX)), DOC, DOCX, JPEG, GIF, PNG, BMP, non-DRM AAC, MP3, MIDI, OGG, WAV, MP4, VP8.
> 
> Barnes & Noble's tablet supports EPUB, PDF, XLS, DOC, PPT, MP3, MP4, AAC, PPS, TXT, DOCM, XLSM, PPTM, PPSX, PPSM, DOCX, XLX, PPTX, JPG, GIF, PNG and BMP.
> 
> Battery Life: Kindle Fire offers battery life of up to 8 hours of continuous reading or 7.5 hours of video playback, with wireless off. Nook Color's battery also allows reading for up to 8 hours without recharging with wireless off.
> 
> Price: Kindle Fire comes at $199, while Nook Color sells for $249


----------



## ddkay

Mike Mahaney gave some good points here, Amazon is subsidising the cost of the Kindle Fire but they can afford to because the device integrates with their existing profitable content platform http://www.bloomberg.com/video/76281704/

You have to agree the price is very fair. They may have an operating margin edge on Apple, let's see what Apple comes back with.


----------



## ddkay

According to an iTunes beta leak Apple should be releasing an iPhone 4S (not an iPhone 5) tomorrow

http://www.appleinsider.com/article...ne_4s_product_name_in_latest_itunes_beta.html


----------



## humble_pie

U can see the prob w short-term options.

we woulda made a killing with the long oct 390 puts if we hadn't been already wiped w the weekly shorts.


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> According to an iTunes beta leak Apple should be releasing an iPhone 4S (not an iPhone 5) tomorrow


Well, that's about as boring as a horrible first date.

Was looking forward to buying the 5...


----------



## Goldfinger

*Just remember*

There is NO correlation with a companies great products and its price.

The big boys base a stock for long periods of time example AAPl then ride it up to the moon. They will collapse this stock back down to ultimately $10 but no so soon. AAPL was great at $10.00...the the boys were giving you all the negative news so they could base and buy then ramp it up.

Example RIM $150 in July 2008, then $95 June 5, 2009 then $24 June 2011. Blackberry is a great product, best for the corp world by far...nothing compares....but the stock is down and all the sheep believe all the stupid news on the company...etc. RIM.TO is going to $250 for the final hurrah in 2014-2016 then IF I'M CORRECT IT SHOULD EMULATE NORTEL AND DROP HARD.....although it should not go bankrupct.

MSFT is basing and maybe they rotate out of AAPL and into MSFT...who knows..I don't play stocks but like to chart them. I make all my money from futures and options from commodities....32 major markets.

Bombardier ( BB is it??) is basing for a long time...this thing is being bought up big time and will get to $80 in time. 

Home Capital....come 2014/15 or 16 this stock should be $80-120 and this should be shorted because it will go below $10.

All the CAD banks should be shorted in the same time frame as they will all go below $10.00 from their lofty highs in 2014/2015.

Remember the stock market is a con game....the money managers, mutual fund managers, financial planners, gurus, experts etc tell you it will go up in the long run and they are correct....So why DO YOU NEED THEIR EXPERTISE TO TELL YOU THIS....even a MORON knows this. The question is they are broke, because they go to a 9-5 job...so don't listen to them...you can become great at this if it is YOUR PASSION.

If not..find another way to make money.

Warren buffet got rich by DOING IT WITH HIS OWN MONEY FIRST..starting at the age of 11. The fund managers and money managers who keep espousing they are value managers and fundamental bs....have never done IT WITH THEIR OWN MONEY!!! NEVER. So they are not like Buffet at all. The fund managers have all the titles-stupid foolish degress- all part of the setup to lead you astray....and for you to lose your money.

The stock market is controlled, manipulated, conned for the benefit of a few.

All the money managers, mutual fund managers, financial planners, CFA's, MBA's all the hundred of thousandands if not millions of buffons are the distribution channel for INCORRECT AND FALSE INFORMATION. Oh yeah don't forget TV and media and newscasters. These fools DON'T KNOW IT, because they are educated and look down on the uneducated....and the guys running this whole show have set this up beautifully. 

If you sit down and observe the headlines and see the outcome months and years later...its ALWAYS THE OPPOSITE.

That's why I know the real estate market in T.O. is going to double from the 2009 house price.....average and median. Yes, it does not make ANY SENSE TO YOU..that's why its going to happen....just like gold at $1925 would never have made sense to YOU in 2005! And how many gurus been calling for a housing crash???

The stock market is a con game, manipulated and controlled. Don't YOU ever forget this.....made for you to lose all your money...UNLESS you know how to control your mind and read a chart...NO INDICATORS(more foolish claptrap).


----------



## ddkay

I don't know if this is a legitimate stream but there's supposed to be live coverage of the iPhone event here at 1PM EST http://www.ustream.tv/channel/applelivekeynotes


----------



## brad

Also available at http://www.macworld.com/article/162575/2011/10/live_update.html?lsrc=top_1

Despite the fact that this is Macworld, the reporters covering this event tend to be pretty evenhanded and can be very critical of Apple when warranted (and generally immune to hype), so don't write them off as mere fanboys. I usually follow this stream as these guys know the industry and have a lot of good insights.


----------



## ddkay

Someone bring RIM back from the grave



> TORONTO (Dow Jones)-- Rogers Communications Inc. , (RCI) a big Canadian telecommunications company, will partner with Montreal -based Trellia Networks to allow customers to send secure email and perform billing functions on devices other than Research in Motion Ltd.'s (RIMM) BlackBerry, as corporate customers increasingly push their bosses to allow them to use their iPhones and other smartphones for work.
> 
> For years, RIM had a lock on the corporate market for smartphones, with customers putting a premium on BlackBerrys' email functionality, including its easy-to-type keyboard, and its security. But Apple Inc. , maker of the iPhone, and Google Inc. , whose Android operating system now dominates the smartphone market, have improved their own security. Meanwhile, employers have increasingly given in to demands from many of their workers, who have clamored to be allowed to use their personal smartphones for work email.
> 
> "The adoption of mobile devices is exploding across enterprises in Canada , particularly data hungry consumer devices like the iPhone, iPad, and Android devices," Trellia said in a statement announcing the partnership on Tuesday. " Rogers is looking to Trellia's MDM (Mobile Device Management) solutions to help its customers securely manage these devices at scale."
> 
> A Rogers spokeswoman confirmed the deal, but didn't elaborate. A RIM spokeswoman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
> 
> -By Will Connors , Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2026; [email protected]


----------



## brad

Macworld seems to be having technical difficulties or server overload. Another good source is the NY Times live blog:

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/...e-apple-iphone-5-announcement/?ref=technology


----------



## m3s

Server overloads everywhere.. too many people watching this time


----------



## brad

The NY Times liveblog is good and so far running smoothly. Sam Grobart is immune to the reality distortion field, I love his little sarcastic digs at Apple.


----------



## ddkay

The Ars photo/text coverage is decent too http://live.arstechnica.com/Event/iPhone_5

It's too bad Apple doesn't have an official video stream, it's probably another hype tactic


----------



## brad

Apple always posts complete video after the event, but not during.


----------



## brad

I love Sam Grobart (NY Times):



> Phil Schiller is now on stage, looking trim. He's talking about an update to the iPod Nano. The apps on the Nano are now swipeable, making it easy to move from one app to another.
> 
> Mr. Schiller is talking about the Nano's use among fitness buffs. There are now 16 new clock faces for people who want to wear their Nano as a watch. The faces are cute: chronometers, and Mickey Mouse! "We worked with Disney," says Mr. Schiller. Given that Steve Jobs is Disney's largest individual shareholder, that mustn't have been too hard.


----------



## m3s

mode3sour said:


> Not sure I would bet much on the next iPhone announcement, it's likely just an iPhone 4"s" or minor updates


iPhone 4s


----------



## brad

mode3sour said:


> iPhone 4s


It's not over yet....do you think there could be "one more thing?"


----------



## m3s

Well it's not Tim announcing the 4s so maybe? Uses a dual Qualcomm chip.. need.. more.. Qualcomm shares


----------



## brad

mode3sour said:


> Well it's not Tim announcing the 4s so maybe? Uses a dual Qualcomm chip.. need.. more.. Qualcomm shares


The NY Times blog said "Steve Jobs does not appear to be here, but there is a bottle of SmartWater, his preferred beverage, on a podium." We'll see...


----------



## ddkay

Smart money selling the news, analysts bored and specs still nothing to brag about. No NFC?


----------



## m3s

Is NA ready for NFC? Did anyone even use it on the Nexus One? Americans at least are depositing cheques now with smartphones but I haven't seen that in Canada


----------



## brad

ddkay said:


> specs still nothing to brag about.


I think you're being blinded by hate. There's a lot of impressive technology here, especially the Siri demo but even the camera is noteworthy (much more advanced than anything else in a smartphone; if I were Canon or Nikon I'd be worried about sales of point and shoot cameras at this point).


----------



## ddkay

It was the Samsung Nexus S to come out with NFC first. It's more about supporting it for future applications, there isn't much use for it "right now". BlackBerry had the Siri thing going on years ago. Those software enhancements are easy to add.


----------



## ddkay

The only thing Apple could surprise us with is price. If they can sell an iPhone 4S for say $300 that would scare other handset makers but I don't see how it's possible.

Nvm.










Am I seeing this correctly? The iPhone 3GS is free? They must still be talking about carrier contracts.


----------



## Dibs

Interesting note from the CNBC tech blog:

Shutterfly [SFLY 36.16 -4.15 (-10.3%) ] and American Greetings [AM 16.40 -1.43 (-8.02%) ] shares plunge on Apple's announcement of that app to create and mail a card anywhere in the world.)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44773041


----------



## m3s

ddkay said:


> It was the Samsung Nexus S to come out with NFC first. It's more about supporting it for future applications, there isn't much use for it "right now". BlackBerry had the Siri thing going on years ago. Those software enhancements are easy to add.


Lots of phones have had voice controls but they weren't integrated across the apps or with Wolfram Alpha/Wikipedia. Wolfram Alpha has been out for years and if it's so easy to do, why didn't Blackberry do it? The difference is Apple is constantly giving the developers more tools whereas RIM developers are pulling out their hair.

It's nice that they are still supporting the old phones as well. You can basically still be up to date with an iPhone 3Gs. Keeping the same form factor another year means all the same accessories still work. The specs are nothing ahead of other phones but there's really no need


----------



## ddkay

I have voice controls and dictation on my Android, they work great and I never use them. Today was more about iOS 5 than the phone itself, overall underwhelming.


----------



## FrugalTrader

Apple is being sold off due to the iPhone 4s announcement. I guess the market was expecting iPhone 5.


----------



## larry81

My apple cellphone is my BEST FRIEND, he actually increase in value !


----------



## brad

It's all in the execution and integration. There are a million excellent features in Windows and my non-Apple smartphone (I've never used an iPhone) that I never use, because they're not easy to access or remember, or they're not well integrated with each other.

Where Apple excels is not so much "design" or "coolness" but in their ability to understand that most users have very limited time to learn how to use their devices. They're not geeks, and if you make it hard for them they're not going to bother.

Case in point: when I receive an email on my Mac, and if that email says something like "can we get together Wednesday at 7pm?" I can hover over that text in the email message and it'll ask me if I want to add it to my calendar. But even better, it shows me a snapshot of my calendar for that day so I can see what else I have going on. This is infinitely better than Microsoft Outlook, where you have to accept a meeting invitation and then it tells you something vague like "this appointment is adjacent to another appointment in your calendar" or "this meeting conflicts with an existing appointment in your calendar," which forces me to go to my calendar to see what the conflicts are so I can make choices.

These are little things, seemingly easy and simple, nothing high-tech about them, and yet they make a big difference in the perceived usability of the device.


----------



## ddkay

wtf http://www.apple.com/ is down

Here we go:









Camera photo gallery:
http://images.apple.com/iphone/includes/camera-gallery/IMG_1720.JPG
http://images.apple.com/iphone/includes/camera-gallery/IMG_0940.JPG
http://images.apple.com/iphone/includes/camera-gallery/IMG_1401.JPG
http://images.apple.com/iphone/includes/camera-gallery/IMG_0032.JPG
http://images.apple.com/iphone/includes/camera-gallery/IMG_1664.JPG
http://images.apple.com/iphone/includes/camera-gallery/IMG_1295.JPG
http://images.apple.com/iphone/includes/camera-gallery/IMG_0945.JPG
http://images.apple.com/iphone/includes/camera-gallery/IMG_1031.JPG

^ Great detail


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> wtf http://www.apple.com/ is down


impossible, Apple is so magnificent that it cant be down, its probably THE FAULT OF THE INTERNET somehow


----------



## m3s

mode3sour said:


> Not sure I would bet much on the next iPhone announcement, it's likely just an iPhone 4"s" or minor updates





ddkay said:


> Today was more about iOS 5 than the phone itself, overall underwhelming.


As expected. They just matched the specs so that consumers who shop by specs are happy. Really it's all about integration like Brad said. Whenever they update iOS they just integrate features for mainstream users that people were already doing with apps and hacks. Integration always a lot smoother



larry81 said:


> My apple cellphone is my BEST FRIEND, he actually increase in value !


Even 1 cent increase would be a lot better than what my Suncor shares have done. Maybe you should get an Apple tattoo beside that Suncor one


----------



## jamesbe

They always take it down before announcements.

I'm underwhelmed. I never used the voice recog on my android so I don't think I'd use it on my iPhone either. I feel silly talking to my phone.


----------



## larry81

mode3sour said:


> Even 1 cent increase would be a lot better than what my Suncor shares have done. Maybe you should get an Apple tattoo beside that Suncor one


A short term vision is perfect to analyse close objects, just like when you admire your apple cellphone !


----------



## m3s

larry81 said:


> A short term vision is perfect to analyse close objects, just like when you admire your apple cellphone !


Gotta spend all my earning from other stocks on something. And I'm still holding Suncor for when I'm old and gray


----------



## larry81

mode3sour said:


> Gotta spend all my earning from other stocks on something. And I'm still holding Suncor for when I'm old and gray


I am also in for the long too pal !

Make no mistake, i think Apple is a great company but sometime the fanboy'ism get a little out of hand.


----------



## andrewf

brad said:


> It's all in the execution and integration. There are a million excellent features in Windows and my non-Apple smartphone (I've never used an iPhone) that I never use, because they're not easy to access or remember, or they're not well integrated with each other.
> 
> Where Apple excels is not so much "design" or "coolness" but in their ability to understand that most users have very limited time to learn how to use their devices. They're not geeks, and if you make it hard for them they're not going to bother.
> 
> Case in point: when I receive an email on my Mac, and if that email says something like "can we get together Wednesday at 7pm?" I can hover over that text in the email message and it'll ask me if I want to add it to my calendar. But even better, it shows me a snapshot of my calendar for that day so I can see what else I have going on. This is infinitely better than Microsoft Outlook, where you have to accept a meeting invitation and then it tells you something vague like "this appointment is adjacent to another appointment in your calendar" or "this meeting conflicts with an existing appointment in your calendar," which forces me to go to my calendar to see what the conflicts are so I can make choices.
> 
> These are little things, seemingly easy and simple, nothing high-tech about them, and yet they make a big difference in the perceived usability of the device.


^Gmail does the same. Who copied whom?


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> ^Gmail does the same. Who copied whom?


Good question, I don't know. I know I've been able to do this with Apple's mail program for at least 2-3 years; I don't use gmail so I don't know when that feature was added. Google is obviously another company that understands the benefits of integration and simplicity, and now that they're getting into the hardware business I think that'll give them improved control of the whole package.


----------



## ddkay

Average consumer: How will people know I have an iPhone 4s instead of an iPhone 4 just by looking?


----------



## Dmoney

ddkay said:


> Average consumer: How will people know I have an iPhone 4s instead of an iPhone 4 just by looking?


Too true. Needs to have some obvious design difference to appeal to all the fanboys.


----------



## andrewf

The Apple fanboys at work are going to line up to replace their 4 with the 4S, because the camera is better. Right. And they'll buy the 5 in a few months too. What a bunch of idiots.


----------



## KaeJS

I figured it was going to only be a 4S, but really...

When I heard the news that it was the iPhone 4S, my immediate reaction was to sell this company.

Seriously. Jobs didn't show, then they release a 4S...

a 4S? Its a piece of crap. Its utterly useless to ANYONE that has an iPhone 4, or was anticipating the purchase of an iPhone 5. (oh wait, that's EVERYONE).

Fools. 

So not impressed.


----------



## brad

KaeJS said:


> I
> a 4S? Its a piece of crap. Its utterly useless to ANYONE that has an iPhone 4, or was anticipating the purchase of an iPhone 5. (oh wait, that's EVERYONE).


Yeah, but millions of people will buy one anyway. Just wait and see.


----------



## ddkay

Phil Schiller: "Our engineering team has worked really hard to advance the state of the art that’s never been done in a phone before. It can now intelligently switch between two antennas between send and receive to make even better call quality."

Phil Schiller: "Other phones take 2-3x longer to shoot. What do Droid Bionic customers have to do between taking pictures? Get coffee?"

What do Apple fanboys do between now and the iPhone 5 announcement? 4sirious?


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> What do Apple fanboys do between now and the iPhone 5 announcement? 4sirious?


Get pissed and dump AAPL stock. 

See ya!


----------



## Abha

I'm disappointed but the dominance will continue. 

The average consumer will still love the iPhone over Android devices because it's an "iPhone". The above average technical crowd might be disappointed but they might decide to go with the new iPhone because of their other devices (macbooks, ipads etc). 

Syncing will be a huge motivator for iPhone sales and the content ecosystem will be another motivator.

The real star of today's presentation was iOs. I think Apple will do just fine with the 4S and they'll come out with something spectacular with the iPhone 5 in a matter of months. 

I wouldn't be surprised if the iPhone 5 prototype is already done and completed and is currently being tested internally.


----------



## brad

You also have to remember that the improvements in iOS security have opened the gates to corporate users and a growing number of businesses are dropping Blackberry and/or approving the use of iPhone. This will account for a lot of new sales in the corporate market. My own employer has been Blackberry forever but approved iPhone last week; our IT department expects to be ordering at least 1,200 iPhone 4Ss over the next month or so.


----------



## FrugalTrader

I've been keeping up with smartphone technology and it appears the 4s is just enough to keep up with the Samsung galaxy s2 (android) in terms of hardware. Apple really needs to kick it up a couple notches with the iphone 5. However I doubt they will have any trouble selling the 4s as its a major upgrade from the 3gs which millions of users still have.


----------



## larry81

So i am in the market for a new phone, what should i get


----------



## larry81

ddkay said:


> Average consumer: How will people know I have an iPhone 4s instead of an iPhone 4 just by looking?


TOUCHÉ


----------



## ddkay

Touchscreen phones.. wait a few quarters for the Samsung Galaxy S3 being announced at the 2012 Mobile World Congress February 27-March 1 in Barcelona. Going to blow iPhone 4S and probably 5 out of the water.

QWERTY phones.. there are no good ones except BlackBerry and maybe the Nokia E7, ugh.


----------



## ddkay




----------



## m3s

FrugalTrader said:


> I've been keeping up with smartphone technology and it appears the 4s is just enough to keep up with the Samsung galaxy s2 (android) in terms of hardware. Apple really needs to kick it up a couple notches with the iphone 5. However I doubt they will have any trouble selling the 4s as its a major upgrade from the 3gs which millions of users still have.


Apple never really leads in hardware specs. I wish more companies would focus on just making a good product rather than just beating the competition specs. Thing is most consumers only shop by specs. Any car enthusiast knows HP really means very little, as do most specs. Shopping by specs alone just means that consumers often get screwed in areas that don't make the spec sheet.

I like both Androids and iPhones and I think the competition is great to push innovation. The specs don't tell everything in any product though. The iPhone is still a great all around package for the many people just entering the market. I don't get why people want a new iPhone 5 so fast. Heck I can upgrade the 4 to most of the new features for free, and I think that's great. People always cry of planned obsolescence on this site and they're doing the opposite


----------



## ddkay

This is planned obsolescence though. At some point smartphone performance growth will stagnate, but that point is not now. This hardware refresh should have at least had support for LTE and NFC to match the competition. With those two things and continuous software updates there would be little reason to upgrade again. Maybe Apple is waiting for better batteries to become available, in that case I would have just skipped the iPhone 4S and kept steadily decreasing inventory into 2012.


----------



## m3s

ddkay said:


> At some point smartphone performance growth will stagnate, but that point is not now.


Exactly. 4s is for all the people who haven't bought a smartphone. It's not for repeat customers. It doesn't "obsolete" old iPhones



ddkay said:


> This hardware refresh should have at least had support for LTE and NFC to match the competition. With those two things and continuous software updates there would be little reason to upgrade again. Maybe Apple is waiting for better batteries to become available, in that case I would have just skipped the iPhone 4S and kept steadily decreasing inventory into 2012.


That could be, and I'm sure there always has to be some kind of long term plan to keep sales going. Still they could have done this now and found something else later. Heck most industries just put out BS technology to obsolete old products on purpose when they don't have something for real.

LTE is faster "in theory" than most people ever even see on their wired high speed. Either way I don't get how skipping 4s would be smart at all. Again it's a refreshed phone for new customers.. It's exactly what you'd expect based on Apple's history, people just over hyped it


----------



## FrugalTrader

I would argue that specs are important depending on what you are looking for. Some consumers like a faster experience that a dual core phone can bring, or some are looking for 1080p for recording high def movies of their kids. Or even something as simple as hdmi out to play videos on the big screen.


----------



## m3s

FrugalTrader said:


> I would argue that specs are important depending on what you are looking for. Some consumers like a faster experience that a dual core phone can bring, or some are looking for 1080p for recording high def movies of their kids. Or even something as simple as hdmi out to play videos on the big screen.


All fair points, but just to show what I mean, most people are fine I think with 720p on a phone. Truth is, most people don't sit close enough or have large enough TV's to distinguish 720p from 1080p. Megapixels and resolution sells cameras, but they are relatively meaningless specs. I do use my iPhone to record video in my car, so the new camera optics are video stabilization would make a huge diff. 1080p and 8 megapixel is the buzz spec that sells, but I'd say to most people it just uses more GBs and bandwidth etc. I'm not a camera guru, but they do all roll their eyes when someone mentions megapixels. More 1's and 0's are nothing without the lens and shutter speeds and who knows what.

I know the HDMI thing has been beaten to death and it is a standard port that's missing.. It's a minimalist thing I guess. If you buy any new device, they all integrate with smartphone via USB now. This does video plus everything else. You could also stream video over WiFi


----------



## ddkay

RIP Steve Jobs 

http://www.apple.com/stevejobs/


----------



## Addy

ddkay said:


> rip steve jobs
> 
> http://www.apple.com/stevejobs/



rip


----------



## Berubeland

so sad... what an icon.


----------



## larry81

> On Thursday, the admirers who turned his technological marvels into everyday tools used them as instruments of grief. People held up pictures of candles on their iPads, booted up their MacBook Pros to watch old Jobs presentations on YouTube, used their iPhones to sift through remembrances on Twitter.
> 
> They grieved his loss through devices...


duhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Apple...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=


----------



## kay_ty

will apple still be okay in the ong run with the death of Jobs?


----------



## ddkay

No one knows tbh. Jobs said he felt confident with the ideas he left behind and Tim at the helm, "Our best years lie ahead". Mostly all CEOs say the same thing to keep morale high though.


----------



## ddkay

Remember Apple still has a lock on the tablet market, and a decent mobile platform. I think competition will slowly pry those things away from them (a la AMD). It might take ten years or more to fall apart, but there's no way a tech titan can remain the best forever, their sales numbers are unsustainable, it just doesn't happen.


----------



## m3s

I used to be an early adopter of tech but now I wait for all the dust to settle. I still buy new gadgets long before most people who just aren't into tech. What I find interesting is all the people around me buying iPads who aren't into gadgets at all. I'm seeing older people finding new applications for them, replacing their books etc. One older lady today was telling me how cool it is to watch her store surveillance camera on her iPad, and access her music and photos in a remote area etc. It's also like a portable babysitter for the kids it seems. Now kids can be glued to a screen 24/7...

On the economics of smartphones - you can buy an unlocked iPhone 4 or 4s online tax free for $500-700. Here in Europe, most people sign a 2 year contract and pay $250-350 for the locked iPhone (half price) along with an inflated monthly bill plus tax on all of that. Basically you can buy it new yourself unlocked for much less but I don't think people realize this. I found it much easier to negotiate a lower monthly rate in Europe by bringing my own phone. In Canada I pretty much did the same but I but most of reps will swear it's not possible. In the end I was paying less that half the normal plans but there were hoops to jump

With this business model I will happily invest in the telcos and smartphone/tablet components. Apple I don't know.. I think their potential is much more priced in than others


----------



## marina628

Looking at the after hours trading of the stock , I put a bid in for $380 tomorrow for 50 shares .Don't think I want to jump in any higher , i have 12 shares i paid $408 for this week


----------



## m3s

No update for Nexus One while iPhone 3Gs is still sold and fully supported. Here's a graphic that shows just how quickly Android devices fall behind. To most people, the OS is far more important than tech specs imo

http://theunderstatement.com/post/11982112928/android-orphans-visualizing-a-sad-history-of-support


----------



## larry81

**** apple !


----------



## KaeJS

larry81 said:


> **** apple !


Excuse me?

I am still trying to figure out why AAPL is only $400 and not $425.

I badly want to buy 10 more, but I don't want to place myself into $4,000 of margin debt.


----------



## kcowan

*Samsung Smartphone beats Apple in 3Q*

Global smartphone shipments Q3 2011 
Company 
Shipments (millions) 
Market share 
Source: Strategy Analytics

Samsung
27.8
23.8%

Apple
17.1
14.6%

Nokia
16.8
14.4%

Others
55.3
47.3%

Source


----------



## m3s

Android has been leading in market share for quite some time. If you read my link, none of them are being supported for updates due to fragmentation. So you pay nearly as much for a phone that won't be supported after 6 months. Nexus One is obsolete a year later while 3Gs is still sold and supported

*I don't invest in Apple, I invest in smartphones


----------



## Causalien

I don't want to long apple at this point. It's starting to behave like MSFT. i.e. suing everyone. Then again, what do I know. The new rent a MAC in the cloud scheme for developers effectively reduced the cost of entry to develop for apple from $700 to $20. Bringing more lemmings (and me) to the slaughter house.

Upon some reflection. I give AAPL 10 years. The amount of time it takes for the screen to become unnecessary and replaced by a display projected into the eye directly.


----------



## larry81

> Android may have some shortcomings, but Google (NSDQ: GOOG) has made enormous advances with manufacturers in terms of getting its OS on their smartphones, and in subsequently getting consumers to buy them. According to figures out today from Gartner, more than 50 percent of all smartphones bought by consumers in Q3 were built on the Android OS. That growth has been at all other platforms’ expense: the figures indicate that every other smartphone platform has declined in marketshare over a year ago.
> 
> Android’s current share of 52 percent is a big gain on last year when it only had 25.3 percent of sales. But as you can see from the table below, Android’s gains are outstripping the growth of the overall smartphone market, which is up by 42 percent to total sales of 115 million units.
> 
> That’s not the case for another big handset maker, Apple: Although iOS grew in actual unit terms by some four million devices, Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) has actually lost market share to Android overall. It accounted for 15 percent of handset sales compared to 16.6 percent in Q3 2010. RIM (NSDQ: RIMM) saw a similar decline but on a smaller scale, its sales grew by 200,000 devices but it still lost about four percent of its market share in sales.


http://paidcontent.org/article/419-...-percent-of-smartphone-sales-the-rest-declin/

Watch out AAPL, GOOG is going to eat your pie


----------



## andrewf

At what point does Android market share cause problems for getting developers to develop for Apple? 80%? 90%? Although the segment of the market captured by Apple probably would represent much higher revenue for developers. Apple users are much likelier to shell out for apps than Android users (read: highly price insensitive). Nonetheless, I expect any advantage Apple currently has in apps to fade away. It's hard to argue with 50% market share.


----------



## m3s

Developers prefer iOS because they only have to concentrate on a few devices. Android is insanely fragmented into different devices and OS versions that can't be updated. The ease of development and quality cannot match

Android will win because it's free, and the apps are cheaper (Heaven forbid $1.99 for someones hard work) The potential for Google apps could really set Android apart, once things like street view nav and 3D maps pick up


----------



## andrewf

I agree that it is something of a problem. It reminds me of the difference in making games back in the day of console vs PC. Each unit of a particular console are all (practically) identical, which greatly simplifies testing. PCs tended to have better specs. Consoles tended to get a lot more bang out of the limited specs they had due to optimization for a particular hardware configuration.

Maybe Google will spend some effort making it easier to support and upgrade devices using their effort. It will also be interesting to see what they do with Motorolla devices.


----------



## kcowan

The smartphone wars are a repeat of the PC wars. Apple could have had more market share if they had been open, but at the sacrifice of profit. I will keep my AAPL because of their profit potential. Will anyone be able to compete with iCloud?


----------



## larry81

kcowan said:


> The smartphone wars are a repeat of the PC wars. Apple could have had more market share if they had been open, but at the sacrifice of profit. I will keep my AAPL because of their profit potential. Will anyone be able to compete with iCloud?


Amazon is the most established player in the "cloud computing" field. IBM, HPQ are positioning themselves too.

AAPL cloud will mostly be centered on end-user need, music storage and others gimmicks.


----------



## ddkay

Android has always held user data in the cloud, email/contacts through Gmail, instant messages through Google Talk, pictures through Picasa. It even competes in the file sharing area with Docs: http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/upload-your-files-and-access-them.html

Google Music is also supposed to be announced today


----------



## andrewf

kcowan said:


> The smartphone wars are a repeat of the PC wars. Apple could have had more market share if they had been open, but at the sacrifice of profit. I will keep my AAPL because of their profit potential. Will anyone be able to compete with iCloud?


iCloud is just repackaged Microsoft and Amazon products, so yes.


----------



## ddkay

Google Music launched but it's only available in the US


----------



## kcowan

andrewf said:


> iCloud is just repackaged Microsoft and Amazon products, so yes.


You are talking about the technology. I am talking about a larger replay of iTunes. People with a bunch of licensed material from iTunes will love iCloud. So they are capitalizing on their existing strength.

They will not be the market share leader, just the profit leader.


----------



## ddkay

Hah the ECB released a central bank iPhone app http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2011/11/17/unlimited-fun-not-funds-on-ecbs-iphone-app/


----------



## andrewf

kcowan said:


> You are talking about the technology. I am talking about a larger replay of iTunes. People with a bunch of licensed material from iTunes will love iCloud. So they are capitalizing on their existing strength.
> 
> They will not be the market share leader, just the profit leader.


Google and Amazon will, I'm sure, have very compelling 'Cloud' offerings. As an aside, I have a feeling that the word 'cloud' might get nominated as one of the top cliches in the next few years, like 'make no mistake' was circa 2005.


----------



## m3s

"Make no mistake" is some sort of hick president loving phenomena. Cloud computing has been used by research and supercomputer experiments for years. It's just the next phase of personal computer. Your lightweight device is only a display for the brute computing done by a hidden team.


----------



## andrewf

I'm pretty sure that in a year, everything Internet-related with be called 'cloud-based'. People forget what words means when they become cliche. Even still, cloud is just another word for the client-server model.


----------



## kcowan

I wonder if this will evolve to a smart phone and the cloud, with your home server as just a special member of the cloud as an option.


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## andrewf

Computers will continue to grow in power 100x per decade. I think we can't yet quite fathom what that will mean in 20 years. It's quite possible that smart phones become irrelevant, because phones can just become dumb terminals providing access to the cloud. Smart phones will become commodity items.


----------



## Rommel

I personally believe two things with respect to Apple:

1) They are on a downward trend for innovation for the following reasons:
a) Steve Jobs, their visionary, has passed. Replacing his vision is impossible but that does not mean others can step up to mitigate the gap.
b) Apple has resorted to lawsuits instead of pressing innovation. This is a clear sign of a losing battle, much like Microsoft in the 90s. Microsoft has been dead money for near a decade or so. Apple is next.
c) They are overpriced. Consumers, while they love image and trends, eventually want that for cheap.
d) Samsung's market penetration is making Apples forays look weak. When it comes to smartphones, Samsung has already taken over topspot and should grow their lead even more. Too bad we can't trade them on the US markets (yet).

Solution: Apple will be fun for a little while longer but for investors, time to look at long term shorts or a split. I think Apple will drop big time in the next 3 years, more likely 18 months or less.

This is my opinion. I am not prophetic by any stretch. At least XOM's market value is backed by tangibility as opposed to hype


----------



## andrewf

Well, a quarter or so of Apple's value is cash. It may well just turn into a money market fund.


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## KaeJS

Rommel, I agree with you in certain situations.

Yes, it's hype. Yes, they're products are expensive.

But, their business is not declining.

Also keep in mind BlackBerry's are going to be off the earth soon, and companies and businesses are more likely to turn to the iPhone instead of Android for multiple reasons (ie, security).

AAPL has become a home brand. 
Android is just for the poorer folk or the people who refuse to use AAPL products.

The iPhone is ultimately the best phone, and their computers aren't bad either.

iPad is a joke - but nobody can top them in the tablet market.


----------



## andrewf

^ I doubt that corporate IT departments will allow Apple and not Android devices.

Android is still catching up with iOS. In many ways it is not as good, but it sets people free and is more customizable. That is pretty powerful in the long-run. The main thing Apple has going for it right now is its anti-trust component sourcing (I can't believe they are getting away with some of the practices they are using), and huge economies of scale. They also have a pretty impressive supply chain. This gives them a cost advantage which allows them to sell tablets in particular at more or less the same price as everyone else while retaining good margins. I'm not sure how durable that advantage is. Samsung, for one, is not to be underestimated.


----------



## donald

Apple broke 5% market share worldwide for pcs,first time ever in the history of apple....its all in the corporate sector,people are actually sneaking in macs to by-pass.good article about it msn money apple stock feed.They are gaining quietly on hp and dell,people forget about the mac.Forget the phone battles they might win were it counts the pc.(pc are not dead)


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> Computers will continue to grow in power 100x per decade. I think we can't yet quite fathom what that will mean in 20 years. It's quite possible that smart phones become irrelevant, because phones can just become dumb terminals providing access to the cloud. Smart phones will become commodity items.


Wut? The cloud only replaces 2 components - the heavy processing and the storage. The storage in most cases is the biggest advantage. A smartphone is still a bunch of sensors, camera, screen, battery, processor etc that cannot be replaced by the cloud. Besides you'd still carry a good processor and storage for off the grid, the cloud is only an extension

I don't agree your belief that cloud = client-server either... I've had a client-server in my house for years. I know where the client and server physically are. We've used the term cloud in the military for decades, to refer to all the cables and computers we don't physically control. IE nothing unsecure goes on the cloud. It's not the same


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## Spudd

andrewf said:


> ^ I doubt that corporate IT departments will allow Apple and not Android devices.


My company (which is in the Fortune 50) allows only Blackberry and Apple. No Android (because of security, like KaeJS said). Our executives all carry iPads around, and iPhone is supported.


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## kcowan

KaeJS said:


> Android is just for the poorer folk or the people who refuse to use AAPL products....


Android can also be a value play, especially with Samsung.


----------



## andrewf

mode3sour said:


> Wut? The cloud only replaces 2 components - the heavy processing and the storage. The storage in most cases is the biggest advantage. A smartphone is still a bunch of sensors, camera, screen, battery, processor etc that cannot be replaced by the cloud. Besides you'd still carry a good processor and storage for off the grid, the cloud is only an extension
> 
> I don't agree your belief that cloud = client-server either... I've had a client-server in my house for years. I know where the client and server physically are. We've used the term cloud in the military for decades, to refer to all the cables and computers we don't physically control. IE nothing unsecure goes on the cloud. It's not the same


Sensors are dropping precipitously in cost. Basically everything that currently makes a smart phone a smart phone will probably cost $20. The need for substantial processing power aboard the phone is a result of inadequate network connections to the cloud. That won't be an issue in 20 years. Smart phones will be commodity items like dumb phones have become. Imagine standing in 1990 and talking about what the iPhone today was going to look like. I don't think the smart phone model is going to remain more or less unchanged for 20 years. Tech moves a bit too fast for that. I suspect smart phones will disappear into augmented reality. In 20 years the idea of pawing at a glass surface on a brick you carry around will probably seem old fashioned. Just my speculation. 

That definition of a cloud is narrower, I think, than what others would use. The cloud is just a consequence of virtualization on the client-server model. Virtualization allows the logical server to be separated from the physical server.


----------



## Rommel

KaeJS said:


> Rommel, I agree with you in certain situations.
> 
> Yes, it's hype. Yes, they're products are expensive.
> 
> But, their business is not declining.
> 
> Also keep in mind BlackBerry's are going to be off the earth soon, and companies and businesses are more likely to turn to the iPhone instead of Android for multiple reasons (ie, security).
> 
> AAPL has become a home brand.
> Android is just for the poorer folk or the people who refuse to use AAPL products.
> 
> The iPhone is ultimately the best phone, and their computers aren't bad either.
> 
> iPad is a joke - but nobody can top them in the tablet market.


Blackberry is arguably the most secure of the smartphone brands. If they do leave, Apple's appeal is not security, it's the cost of not having to worry (false sense of security).

Our company ditched Blackberry for Apple when they decided it was cheaper to support an iPhone. It also comes down to how a company deploys a security model. I work in IT for my company and I must say it's a complete joke here but that doesn't mean other companies are as bad off.

With ICS, Google is quickly bridging the gap with many different devices running different flavors of software. This allows a more unified approach and when it comes to security schemes, I don't see Android as being that lagging, at least given that far more vulnerabilities have existed and been identified for iOS devices and not Android.

Allow me to get back on topic though. I agree with you on the home branding and business models but Android is certainly not for the poorer folk. Android is designed to provide greater accessibility and customization for the user regardless of their financial status. Android is driven by the GPL at the Kernel level and the ASL at the user or application level. It's a solid model that is a) proven and b) costs less to develop for. This helps keep the price of a fully-featured smart phone down. It's a smart business model and it's no wonder that Samsung Smartphones (nearly all Android) are leading the pack.

Apple has always been like "Like our hardware? Can't buy it without our Software bundled." I am sure you've seen the reviews where Windows OS' and Android ports run more efficiently and quicker on Apple hardware.

Apple's business I believe is starting a downward trend. They should have a solid 4th quarter but unless they keep setting records, their share value will adjust accordingly.

I still think Apple is a short or split situation in the coming years. For those long on apple, I hope I'm wrong


----------



## KaeJS

I don't think the whole end user customization thing is such a big deal.

I mean, I have the iPhone 4 and one of my friends has a Galaxy. He's always telling me how garbage the iPhone is because you can't customize it.

To be honest - it doesn't bother me one bit.

The iPhone works. It's solid. You always have compatibility and functionality. With a droid phone, there are way too many 3rd party apps and it clutters the phone. The iPhone is clean, simple, yet not lagging. 

Those who really want to customize their iPhone's just end up jailbreaking them. I don't really see the issue, here. I've jailbroken one of my previous iPhones and it was way better than a droid phone. You can get all the same apps (if not more). You can download free games, ringtones, backgrounds that change or have moving images, you can customize your carrier message, change your lock screen, you can do all sorts of things.

With all that being said, I don't think customization is what hurts the iPhone. Also, keep in mind that if a team of nerds can jailbreak the iPhone to do those things, AAPL will be able to release those things permanently in order to "keep their phones updated", even though droid phone users had access to it years ago. But, as i said, I don't think users are concerned about this. They either jailbreak their iPhone for customization ability, or they don't.

Also, keep in mind that apps are a lot easier to make for the iPhone. Nobody wants to make an app for a droid phone because there are too many complications and too many different devices or updates the app needs to be able to run on.

I think having the iPhone more or less the same for everyone is a big advantage.

My friends Galaxy, by the way, is slower than a turtle because of all the third party apps.

All those reviews they do about the speed of android phones is BEFORE the user loads it up with tons of third party applications.


----------



## m3s

The only Android device I would buy are the Nexus brands because the others have pitiful software support at best (most are released on outdated version of Android!) See this chart of iOS vs Android update support

http://theunderstatement.com/post/11982112928/android-orphans-visualizing-a-sad-history-of-support

I think people buy an Android first and foremost just because they don't want an Apple product, which is fine. I've never owned a Mac computer but iPhones have won me over so far even though I would have preferred the right Android if it existed. I might end up switching to Macs as well because of it, as I'm getting much less tolerant of spotty PC performance


----------



## Rommel

KaeJS said:


> I don't think the whole end user customization thing is such a big deal.
> 
> I mean, I have the iPhone 4 and one of my friends has a Galaxy. He's always telling me how garbage the iPhone is because you can't customize it.
> 
> To be honest - it doesn't bother me one bit.
> 
> The iPhone works. It's solid. You always have compatibility and functionality. With a droid phone, there are way too many 3rd party apps and it clutters the phone. The iPhone is clean, simple, yet not lagging.
> 
> Those who really want to customize their iPhone's just end up jailbreaking them. I don't really see the issue, here. I've jailbroken one of my previous iPhones and it was way better than a droid phone. You can get all the same apps (if not more). You can download free games, ringtones, backgrounds that change or have moving images, you can customize your carrier message, change your lock screen, you can do all sorts of things.
> 
> With all that being said, I don't think customization is what hurts the iPhone. Also, keep in mind that if a team of nerds can jailbreak the iPhone to do those things, AAPL will be able to release those things permanently in order to "keep their phones updated", even though droid phone users had access to it years ago. But, as i said, I don't think users are concerned about this. They either jailbreak their iPhone for customization ability, or they don't.
> 
> Also, keep in mind that apps are a lot easier to make for the iPhone. Nobody wants to make an app for a droid phone because there are too many complications and too many different devices or updates the app needs to be able to run on.
> 
> I think having the iPhone more or less the same for everyone is a big advantage.
> 
> My friends Galaxy, by the way, is slower than a turtle because of all the third party apps.
> 
> All those reviews they do about the speed of android phones is BEFORE the user loads it up with tons of third party applications.


If customization were not a big deal the following would not be popular on the iPhone:

1) Jailbreaking
2) Themes (which can only be "skinned" by an app currently unless jailbroken

Without jailbreaking the iphone, it's locked to what Apple gives you. Obviously customization is a big deal for you, you've gone and circumvented the TOS from Apple and jailbroken your phone!

I'm not sure what you're comparing your iphone to. Certainly not all Android phones because the interfaces are all unique/different across various models pre-ICS. ICS is the first release that unifies the GUI architecture. The Galaxy SII smokes the iphone 4 in functionality, compatibility and certainly isn't laggy or cluttered. Apple needed to release the 5, not the 4s to stay ahead of Android. The next Galaxy SIII will mop the floor with Apple and will not look back. Couple this with Apple getting rid of Samsung as a component supplier, Apple has essentially shot themselves in the foot. Kal-El is expected to be a part of the next Samsung Galaxy iteration and if it is, we will have essentially a full-fledged laptop in a smartphone.

What do you mean by third party apps? Are you talking about the app-stores or preloaded applications?

Using the Android SDK is not a complicated process, it's a truer coding development scheme aka SDK. Apple seems easier because it's targeted but have you known anyone to have their iOS app published because they use a private API? With iOS, you have to buy a development license to the SDK. You don't have to with Android. Sure iOS has a huge head start on the game but Android is catching up quickly. With Android you have endless possibilities in coding especially when accessing hardware on the phone.

Why hasn't Apple designed a version of iOS that is multi-tasking? They can but why don't they? I speculate because they end up with less control of their model and potentially could lose on market share.

What you're telling us is that you prefer the iphone to the droid. You haven't shown at all how the iphone is superior, let alone which models you are trying to compare.

I have a Galaxy SII and an iPhone 3s and an iPhone 4. My Galaxy SII runs circles around them all and I have a lot of apps installed. Are you talking about the original Galaxy S that your friend owns because if not, I'm calling malarkey right now. 

Have you given thought to Steve Jobs' desire to "destroy" and/or crush Android? Mr. Jobs knew that Android is the biggest threat to his model and visionary approach. We are at the Crossroads I say, stay the course with an Apple approach that is now uninspiring or move on and embrace the freedom and innovation offered by Android. The market will follow, this I am sure 

I will close with this. I would rather build a team of engineers and software designers from Google than those from Apple and Google's innovations speak yields to this.


----------



## Rommel

mode3sour said:


> The only Android device I would buy are the Nexus brands because the others have pitiful software support at best (most are released on outdated version of Android!) See this chart of iOS vs Android update support
> 
> http://theunderstatement.com/post/11982112928/android-orphans-visualizing-a-sad-history-of-support
> 
> I think people buy an Android first and foremost just because they don't want an Apple product, which is fine. I've never owned a Mac computer but iPhones have won me over so far even though I would have preferred the right Android if it existed. I might end up switching to Macs as well because of it, as I'm getting much less tolerant of spotty PC performance


Nice link but I do believe the author overlooks the intent and purpose of ICS. It will bridge the gap and start leveling out the playing field from an OS point of view for mobile devices. Google cannot control other companies and their desires of when to push updates. Jellybean (rumored name) is already being worked upon and we haven't had a release of ICS just yet (hit markets).

What do the above charts matter currently? HTC and Samsung all make phones that compete in functionality with the iPhone regardless of updates. Back when Honeycomb was being talked about, people knew the next release would address the uniformity issue.

For everyone switching to a MAC, just wait until you encounter a problem. You're going to be livid because the problems that affect MACs are going to leave you with some tough choices.

Namely:
1) Find an authorized partner or certified agent to service it (pay big bucks)
2) Pay outrageously for a service plan
3) Wait for a major update from Apple (oh boy)


----------



## m3s

Rommel said:


> Why hasn't Apple designed a version of iOS that is multi-tasking? They can but why don't they? I speculate because they end up with less control of their model and potentially could lose on market share.


Wut? iOS has had multitasking for over a year



Rommel said:


> I will close with this. I would rather build a team of engineers and software designers from Google than those from Apple and Google's innovations speak yields to this.


I'm a big fan of Google but it seems they lack a part of the overall puzzle or the leadership to keep them on the same page. They don't push their products, they let them sell themselves or die. It's like laissez faire with a bunch of geniuses and random projects but no overall direction or focus. Even if the iPhone doesn't match on specs, you know it's a completely thought out package with years of support, and you can use the Google apps to boot.



Rommel said:


> What do the above charts matter currently? HTC and Samsung all make phones that compete in functionality with the iPhone regardless of updates. Back when Honeycomb was being talked about, people knew the next release would address the uniformity issue.)


Exactly. They sell a product that beats the iPhone in specs for the same price, but then it's obsolete in 6 months while the iPhones are supported for years. Are you saying people don't want the latest Android version on 1 year old phones? Are there never bugs or updates to fix on Androids?


----------



## ddkay

I have a Nexus One (as my backup phone now), there is an ICS AOSP build out yo

http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?t=1314781


----------



## ddkay

Android's update guarantee is not promising at all, brand new devices are launching with stale code. Too many Android phones ship that are slow as heck, also I think HTC Sense, Moto Blur, Samsung TouchWiz are a load of gar-bage. That is not to be blamed on Android itself but rather the carriers and the OEM junk the stuff in it, it's like purchasing a PC from BestBuy or whatever.

I have to hand it to MS, they got WP7 to run very smooth with lesser hardware specs.


----------



## ddkay

By the way Canadian bros, Verizon (CDMA) is the only US carrier for the Galaxy Nexus for the foreseeable future, while the Galaxy Nexus is pentaband and compatible with all. Some of my American counter parts have asked if I could help send some across the border, do you think it would be problematic? Sad to see how Google gave up on directly selling their flagship device unsubbed.


----------



## larry81

Thanks you Steve for exploiting the poor labors laws in China and not donating a single cent to any charities. I dont care if Apple is suing everyone, Apple is such a great company, way better than the monopolistic M$ !!!

Fidelity just sold their 45m shares, Android surpassed Apple sales, Amazon releasing a new tablet with almost free content but all this don't really matter because I like anything that is shiny and made by Apple.

Apple to 300$ go go go !


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## ddkay

You could give it away for free, I wouldn't use an Amazon tablet for the same reason I wouldn't use a BlackBerry tablet. The form factor and resolution are both too tiny. I could probably accept either if they at least had higher pixel densities.

Any way, people have to stop being such huge fanboys and look at pros and cons of all platforms and device makers.


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## m3s

ddkay said:


> Sad to see how Google gave up on directly selling their flagship device unsubbed.


Yea that was the main reason I wanted the Nexus One, but at the time there was no Cdn support. I had to read the forums just to see what carriers would even be compatible at the time. It was clear that iPhone was a much safer bet, unless you want to get into the underground stuff

Your link about the Nexus One is people upgrading it on their own? Post after post of problems and no I don't want to develop my own OS on my free time thank you! Quote "too many things to list that aren't working" Orr.. you can pay the same for a device that's updated for years

I think once the dust settles a bit Android will be a great OS though, especially if it becomes a "full fledged laptop" as Rommel claims (I though the main point of Kal-El was battery saving?) Like I always point out, bigger specs don't mean much if the software doesn't use them. Do people really need 8 core laptops and quad core phones? Well marketing says yes

Quad-core chips in mobile phones is nothing but a marketing snow job



> Purchasing a quad-core device right now is equivalent to buying a really nice chainsaw, then using it cut grass. Anyone witnessing a neighbor attempting such a feat would think that it was a bit overkill to be using such a hefty tool for a relatively easy task.


----------



## ddkay

Btw I hear good things are brewing at RIM, they've improved their device-side cryptography algorithms, and the industrial design teams are working on new looks. I'm kind of thinking BBX won't be as bad as everyone thinks it is, of course it will have BES/BBM support and the Android emulator. Where's Goldfinger? Maybe he has more inside info than we think.

PS I'm not endorsing RIM stock, the stock is sitting on like 9 years of price support, if the economy turns sour and/or they screw up the next few quarters it could easily lose 70%.


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## ddkay

Beefier specs are bullish for component makers but really hardware optimization is the magic sauce to a faster efficient UE.


----------



## Rommel

mode3sour said:


> Wut? iOS has had multitasking for over a year


This pseudo-multitasking approach doesn't even allow apps to background update. The double-tap brings up a glorified task manager. Webpages do not continue to render properly under Apple's "multitask" approach for example.




> I'm a big fan of Google but it seems they lack a part of the overall puzzle or the leadership to keep them on the same page. They don't push their products, they let them sell themselves or die. It's like laissez faire with a bunch of geniuses and random projects but no overall direction or focus. Even if the iPhone doesn't match on specs, you know it's a completely thought out package with years of support, and you can use the Google apps to boot.


Google pushes their products, they have one of the most aggressive marketing campaigns for their products. Google isn't just about the average-joe consumer or trend consumer. They forge out huge corporate deals and with their patent chest continuing to grow, their products continue to remain competitive with LTS. Google has amazing direction and I would argue its model is far more sustainable than Apple's. Guess which companies rely on Google for things like Server Farms and Search algorithms? The Apples and Microsofts of the world of course!

As for years of support, well, Apple has a very slow development cycle compared to Google. Since they seek more lawsuits and injunctions than innovation, this further solidifies this. Do you think the iPhone 3G is a competitive phone today? I mean, Apple tried to grab everyone by the scruff of their neck and hold them hostage to their model but in terms of LTS, a phone not even 3 years old didn't receive the 4.3.3 patch. In fact, many suppliers said it was EOL in 2009...





> Exactly. They sell a product that beats the iPhone in specs for the same price, but then it's obsolete in 6 months while the iPhones are supported for years. Are you saying people don't want the latest Android version on 1 year old phones? Are there never bugs or updates to fix on Androids?


Which phones are you referencing? For example, the HTC Desire and Incredible are well over a year old and still remain competitive.

I definitely am not saying people do not wish to have their Androids updated to the latest model but that's not Google's fault. It's the phone manufacturer's fault.


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## ddkay

Whoops sorry mode, I linked the wrong version, this is AOSP, but for sure some things are not working http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?t=1348670 and it's not officially supported...


----------



## m3s

Rommel said:


> As for years of support, well, Apple has a very slow development cycle compared to Google. Since they seek more lawsuits and injunctions than innovation, this further solidifies this. Do you think the iPhone 3G is a competitive phone today? I mean, Apple tried to grab everyone by the scruff of their neck and hold them hostage to their model but in terms of LTS, a phone not even 3 years old didn't receive the 4.3.3 patch. In fact, many suppliers said it was EOL in 2009...
> 
> Which phones are you referencing? For example, the HTC Desire and Incredible are well over a year old and still remain competitive.
> 
> I definitely am not saying people do not wish to have their Androids updated to the latest model but that's not Google's fault. It's the phone manufacturer's fault.


I was referencing this chart which only shows the Incredible still being supported after a year (Desire not on the list, but wiki says it's already 2 Android versions behind after a year!)

OK, it's the phone manufacturer's fault.. This is what I meant by lack of direction or coordination of overall effort, I guess I was meaning the relationship with manufacturers. Sure Google is spewing out new OS every 6 months but doing nothing to look after the old ones from a year ago? Even Micro$oft looked after old versions longer than that! My other reason for saying lack of direction is that all these new versions of Android are causing further fragmentation besides all the different phones. It's one thing to have a fast development cycle but better specs and newer OS every 6 months doesn't really improve the overall package imo

Yes, I think iPhone 3G is a relevant phone today. The average joe would be perfectly fine with a 3G or 3Gs and still getting software support and updates. Apple's development cycle may be slower because they try to put out complete packages. A lot of Android phones are hit and miss, critical issues like battery life etc and unsupported 6 months or a year later and completely drop off the map. Like I said I like them both and was on the fence every time. I even considered the Sony Android phones but now you don't even hear a word about those anymore! It's definitely takes more due diligence and some underground effort to buy the right Android phone and keep it relevant


----------



## andrewf

Isn't this VHS vs Betamax all over again? Quality doesn't matter as much as market share. I don't know that Apple realizes this. Allowing Android to gobble up 60, 70, 80% market share would not be very bright, but it seems Apple has every intention to cede it. It's not as if Apple couldn't cut prices by like 30 or 40% and keep a good margin. And Apple picking a fight with Samsung seems like bad news. Their relationship with Samsung has been a big part of their competitive advantage, and not they are turning their back on the leader in flash memory and screens?


----------



## kcowan

I don't think the VHS/Betamax comparison is valid. But an open Unix versus closed Windows or Mac does seem to be a viable comparison. It is just that we are talking ecosystems and not technology this time. Android may own the ecosystem and Apple will have the most profitable niche once again.


----------



## andrewf

Apple is relying on being something of the default choice, like they are in MP3 players. If they lose too much market share, they won't be the default choice. I think they should be defending more aggressively.


----------



## GOB

Andrew, I don't understand your obsession with market share as the be all and end all of the success of a company. Are you aware that in the mobile sector Apple takes in more profits that the rest of the industry combined? Is that not more significant than market share. It's not like Apple is a RIM that's bleeding market share either - I agree that would be a cause for concern. But maintaining a 20-30% share with the rapid increase in smartphone adoption means more rapid growth for Apple. I think they are pretty much at capacity in terms of production anyway so cutting prices 30% makes absolutely no sense. 

Market share does not equal success. One may contribute to another but they are not always coupled. By the way, why are we comparing Apple (one company) with Android (several large companies)? Is that a fair comparison? How does the market share look when split out by individual vendors, or removing the vendors that are breaking even or even losing money selling Android phones? After all, it's easy to give away stuff for free and increase your market share in the process. I don't think that's a sound strategy though and am confident Apple will not go down that silly path. 

Apple does not license out their software and therefore intentionally limits their market share. That is also a huge part of their competitive advantage and why they make such great margins. I think the performance of the company over the last decade has validated this strategy as a good one - one they have no reason to deviate from as they are one of the largest companies on this planet and are still growing at the rate of a small-cap. That is what really matters, and I think Apple is aware of the reasons this came to be, which stretch far beyond market share statistics.


----------



## ddkay

Someone bring the tombstone out for RIMM. $16.77.


----------



## andrewf

Platforms are all about market share. Smart phones are platform plays. Ergo, market share is important in the smart phone market.


----------



## jcgd

I'm not so sure. Apple had some rediculously low number for percentage of the smart phones sold, something like 10%, yet raked in over 50% of the profits. That is efficiency.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Platforms are all about market share. Smart phones are platform plays. Ergo, market share is important in the smart phone market.


Your opening statement here means little without any supporting evidence to back it up. I think this is a bit more accurate:

The success of a company is all about earnings and earnings growth. Growth may come from market share, increased consumer base or a combination. Apple earns more than all other mobile vendors combined, and mobile is but one part of several of their core business lines. All their business lines have huge growth potential, either due to low but steadily growing current market share (Mac) or vast room for global adoption of technology (iPhone, iPad, iCloud). Additionally, Apple has demonstrated the ability to revolutionize the industry several times, so assuming another such event takes place in the near future is not unreasonable. This would add another immensely profitable business line to an already massively profitable company. 

Can you refute any of the above? 

Let me put it this way - assuming each smartphone vendor has only that as their business line, which one would you back? The answer is obvious to anyone without bias.

Market share is important, sure. Is it the most important factor? Definitely not. I think that about sums it up. A company that has a high market share but zero profit is not one I would want to invest in, even if their market share is growing. 

One last thing - would anyone like to hazard a guess as to why Adobe is killing off Flash for mobile devices? It couldn't possibly be due to Apple not supporting it, since their market share is soon to fall into irrelevance...right?


----------



## andrewf

Flash is going away because of HTML5, not Apple.

I don't overweight any of the players in this space. Assuming Apple will continue to execute flawlessly seems overconfident to me. Companies make strategic errors. Apple almost failed once, after all. Apple does have a decent moat, but I don't think they can rest on their laurels. If iTunes were not the default music store, would iPods be so popular? There is a reason Amazon is willing to sell the Kindle Fire for at or below cost. The platform is important.

Apple has done a very good job so far of maintaining very high profit margins. Much of the company's current value rests on maintaining or growing market share, however. Losing market share as they have been in smart phones is a risk to the future profitability of the company.

And yes, Samsung shipped more units in Q3 than Apple, though that may be due to customers refusing to buy 4Gs in expectation of the 5G being released this fall. That Samsung is willing to operate with smaller margins should be viewed as another risk.


----------



## GOB

Don't be obtuse - a huge reason why HTML5 has become the standard is because Apple backed it, and thus a large fraction of mobile users could not use Flash. It's funny how the ability to use Flash was such a huge selling point for Android vendors and users, and then one day it's suddenly a given that HTML5 was better all along when Apple was aware of this years in advance, before Adobe itself (this is not directed at you, but just a general observation of how people don't really know what they want). Things like this are what make me confident that Apple will remain at the forefront of the tech sector, wherever that takes us in the future. 

The iTunes store grew in popularity along with iPod. One would not be as dominant without the other. I don't get your point. Are you saying Apple got lucky with the iTunes store? I'd argue they executed their vision like only they could. 

I guess I don't understand what more you can expect Apple to do deem it an investable company. The lion's share of profits in two of the most explosively growing sectors of technology is not enough for you? Who cares if others are selling devices at razor thin margins or even a loss (the Kindle Fire has absolutely terrible reviews, by the way)? Apple has the strongest customer satisfaction and retention out of anyone, and all their products are tied to their ecosystem providing a strong incentive to stay with Apple products. Is that not a good enough moat for you? Which company has a better one? Amazon is the only possible challenger and they are forecasting a loss for next quarter. Contrast that with $10 billion profit for Apple and it's laughable. 

You continue to make statements that are simply not based on fact. As with any company, much of Apple's valuation is based on profit growth, not market share growth (in fact, even this is questionable as Apple is currently valued like a slow growth mega cap). Would you rather Apple had half their existing profit share but double their market share? Would that make a more attractive investment? I'm sorry, I just don't understand that logic. The mobile and tablet industry (just like the PC) industry is large enough to have several different players all making money. Apple does not need to beat everyone at everything to declare it a sound investment. It all comes down to earnings and earnings growth - the way this is achieved is much less important. Apple is leagues above the others in both these

This entire argument, by the way, is based on te flawed assumption that Apple is making no effort to gain market share. They are selling the iPhone 3GS at $0 and the iPhone 4 at $99, an by all accounts these are selling extremely well for older devices. In the meantime the 4S will set new records. I don't know what more you want. Apple can't make phones fast enough to meet demand - why lower prices and hit margins for no reason?


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Someone bring the tombstone out for RIMM. $16.77.


Never saw THAT coming.


----------



## ddkay

Facebook is making a smartphone with HTC and Android link


----------



## andrewf

GOB said:


> Don't be obtuse - a huge reason why HTML5 has become the standard is because Apple backed it, and thus a large fraction of mobile users could not use Flash. It's funny how the ability to use Flash was such a huge selling point for Android vendors and users, and then one day it's suddenly a given that HTML5 was better all along when Apple was aware of this years in advance, before Adobe itself (this is not directed at you, but just a general observation of how people don't really know what they want). Things like this are what make me confident that Apple will remain at the forefront of the tech sector, wherever that takes us in the future.
> 
> The iTunes store grew in popularity along with iPod. One would not be as dominant without the other. I don't get your point. Are you saying Apple got lucky with the iTunes store? I'd argue they executed their vision like only they could.
> 
> I guess I don't understand what more you can expect Apple to do deem it an investable company. The lion's share of profits in two of the most explosively growing sectors of technology is not enough for you? Who cares if others are selling devices at razor thin margins or even a loss (the Kindle Fire has absolutely terrible reviews, by the way)? Apple has the strongest customer satisfaction and retention out of anyone, and all their products are tied to their ecosystem providing a strong incentive to stay with Apple products. Is that not a good enough moat for you? Which company has a better one? Amazon is the only possible challenger and they are forecasting a loss for next quarter. Contrast that with $10 billion profit for Apple and it's laughable.
> 
> You continue to make statements that are simply not based on fact. As with any company, much of Apple's valuation is based on profit growth, not market share growth (in fact, even this is questionable as Apple is currently valued like a slow growth mega cap). Would you rather Apple had half their existing profit share but double their market share? Would that make a more attractive investment? I'm sorry, I just don't understand that logic. The mobile and tablet industry (just like the PC) industry is large enough to have several different players all making money. Apple does not need to beat everyone at everything to declare it a sound investment. It all comes down to earnings and earnings growth - the way this is achieved is much less important. Apple is leagues above the others in both these
> 
> This entire argument, by the way, is based on te flawed assumption that Apple is making no effort to gain market share. They are selling the iPhone 3GS at $0 and the iPhone 4 at $99, an by all accounts these are selling extremely well for older devices. In the meantime the 4S will set new records. I don't know what more you want. Apple can't make phones fast enough to meet demand - why lower prices and hit margins for no reason?


We're both just speculating when we make prognostications about Apple. I'll just point out what the market thinks. It values Apple at around 13 times current earnings and 10-11 times next year earnings. That is hardly a resounding vote of confidence. Why is it that Apple garners a lower multiple than, say, a grocery retailer with a history of execution problems? The low relatively low multiple is indicative of market belief that either there will be pressure on margins or share, or that there is significant risk to those future cashflows. Why isn't Apple trading at 20 or 30 times P/E which would be more typical for a high margin growth company?

I don't overweight any individual companies... My investment strategy is comprised of broad equity ETFs. I have no horse in this race. Whoever wins, I own a piece*.

* Well, I currently am sitting mostly in cash, so I do not have an interest in Apple at the moment.


----------



## Causalien

Sometimes, there's economy of scale to consider.

10x earnings of 10 trillion is 100 trillion. That's less probable than 10x earnings of 100, which is a simple $1000. So a better way to judge PE is to scale it based on total stock market value in a country.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> We're both just speculating when we make prognostications about Apple. I'll just point out what the market thinks. It values Apple at around 13 times current earnings and 10-11 times next year earnings. That is hardly a resounding vote of confidence. Why is it that Apple garners a lower multiple than, say, a grocery retailer with a history of execution problems? The low relatively low multiple is indicative of market belief that either there will be pressure on margins or share, or that there is significant risk to those future cashflows. Why isn't Apple trading at 20 or 30 times P/E which would be more typical for a high margin growth company?
> 
> I don't overweight any individual companies... My investment strategy is comprised of broad equity ETFs. I have no horse in this race. Whoever wins, I own a piece*.
> 
> * Well, I currently am sitting mostly in cash, so I do not have an interest in Apple at the moment.




You're right, it is just speculation and the market is treating Apple as a slow or no growth company. The market however, is inefficient and that's what creates great opportunities. I believe this is one of them. Even with just moderate growth, less than what is currently occurring, Apple will have its entire current market cap in cash within 3-4 years...tell me that is not a company you should not seriously consider investing in.


----------



## kcowan

> Taiwanese phone maker HTC (2498TW) this morning cut its Q4 forecast, both Dow Jones and Bloomberg Newswire services report, saying it will make only about $104 billion in New Taiwan dollars, down from a previously forecast range of $125 billion to $135 billion.
> 
> The company blamed the results on “weaker global demand” and “intensifying competition.”
> 
> Bloomberg’s Tim Culpan this morning cites Yuanta Securities analyst Bonnie Chang as saying HTC’s “growth streak has come to an end.”
> 
> HTC shares traded on the Taipei exchange closed down roughly 6% at 565.
> 
> Update: In a note to clients this morning, BMO Capital’s Tim Long writes that the cut in outlook is “company-specific,” and that in his opinion, HTC is losing share to Apple (AAPL), which he rates Outperform.
> 
> Sprint-Nextel, Long thinks, had the potential to sell 2 million to 2.5 million HTC handsets this quarter, but the introduction of Apple’s iPhone 4S last month probably cut that number in half. HTC is also being affected in North America and elsewhere by the roll-out of Samsung Electronics’s (SSNLF) “Galaxy S II” smartphone.


I have a Samsung Galaxy Gingerbread smartphone.


----------



## GOB

^ I think in terms of market share, it's down to Samsung vs. Apple. In terms of profit share there is zero competition. I know who I'm backing.


----------



## andrewf

I don't think Apple's share price is a result of market inefficiency. That is plausible for small caps, maybe. But thousands of institutional investors pore over valuations for Apple... You may have different expectations, but for some reason the market is cautious about Apple.


----------



## GOB

There are many plausible reasons for Apple's undervaluation. It has always been a manipulated stock and has been undervalued for the last several years. Analysts are almost always wrong, but unfortunately their opinions still hold a lot of weight. Many funds cannot hold Apple because they don't pay a dividend, and they are mandated to only hold dividend paying stocks. I know I have supported Apple's stance of not needing to pay out dividends at this point before, but if they did announce just a nominal dividend for this reason alone it may be a good idea for the share price. 

Eventually though, the market is a weighting machine. Apple's growing profits and cash pile have no other option but to translate into a higher share price eventually. Even if growth decreases, I think we can all agree that Apple is going to remain a profitable company for many years to come at the very least. If you accept this thesis, the numbers will soon make absolutely no sense if Apple stock remains depressed at these levels. Will it grow 50% a year? Perhaps, perhaps not, and it will become increasingly difficult to do so, obviously. But will outperform the market by a good margin? That I am quite certain of. 

I put little to no faith in what the "professionals" think. If they can get stuff like Netflix so completely wrong, then what good are they?


----------



## rookie

ddkay said:


> Facebook is making a smartphone with HTC and Android link


and so is amazon: 

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4230787/Report--Amazon-asks-Foxconn-for-smartphone-help


----------



## GOB

Excellent article here, I encourage everyone to read it:

http://www.asymco.com/2011/11/21/is-innovation-valuable/

As for Facebook and Amazon, we have seen literally hundreds of supposed iPod, iPhone and iPad killers. They have all failed in that task.


----------



## Rommel

GOB said:


> Excellent article here, I encourage everyone to read it:
> 
> http://www.asymco.com/2011/11/21/is-innovation-valuable/
> 
> As for Facebook and Amazon, we have seen literally hundreds of supposed iPod, iPhone and iPad killers. They have all failed in that task.


I do believe it's the media that paints products as potential iPod/iPhone/iPad killers and not the manufacturers themselves. The companies that remain competitive with Apple's offerings are not running around saying "we made a killer, come see what we offer!". It's media hype/controversy. It's sensationalism. With that, I think it's nonsense


----------



## GOB

Rommel said:


> I do believe it's the media that paints products as potential iPod/iPhone/iPad killers and not the manufacturers themselves. The companies that remain competitive with Apple's offerings are not running around saying "we made a killer, come see what we offer!". It's media hype/controversy. It's sensationalism. With that, I think it's nonsense


I strongly disagree. So many commercials focus on the apparent shortcomings of Apple's products so much so that they barely even show their own offering. Have you seen Samsung's latest commercial for the Galaxy II? Funny, sure, but also rather pathetic.

Compare something like that with Apple commercials and the difference is stark. You will rarely (if ever) see a competitor's product in an Apple commercial.


----------



## Spudd

What about those "I'm a Mac. I'm a PC." commercials?


----------



## Rommel

GOB said:


> I strongly disagree. So many commercials focus on the apparent shortcomings of Apple's products so much so that they barely even show their own offering. Have you seen Samsung's latest commercial for the Galaxy II? Funny, sure, but also rather pathetic.
> 
> Compare something like that with Apple commercials and the difference is stark. You will rarely (if ever) see a competitor's product in an Apple commercial.


Well the commercials available where I am, I don't see what you're saying but then again, do you have some links to the commercials you're talking about? I haven't seen the latest Galaxy SII commercial you're talking about, but the ones I do see here are from the carriers (Bells and Teluses of the world).

As for your rarely if ever comment, malarkey. Look at the I'm a mac commercials, the Power MAC G3 (toasting the Pentium 2 processor in public... up to twice as fast), Power MAC G4 (Pentium PCs are harmless), Intel Chip in a MAC (Intel chip trapped in a PC, being set free etc.) or "This is a highly sophisticated office computer and to use it all you have to do is learn this.", "Let's say you're working on this difficult to use PC" etc. etc. This list is very lengthy.

Btw, are you an Apple fan?


----------



## andrewf

GOB said:


> You will rarely (if ever) see a competitor's product in an Apple commercial.


You're kidding, right?


----------



## rookie

GOB said:


> As for Facebook and Amazon, we have seen literally hundreds of supposed iPod, iPhone and iPad killers. They have all failed in that task.


if you read the amazon article i posted, you can clearly see that they are not in the same market space as apple. they have a target price of 150-200$ and apple's cheapest phone is 500+. of course, if people become sensible enough to buy what they need and not what they "think they might want", this could indeed kill apple, unless they change their product offerings. but i do not think that will be the case.


----------



## GOB

Rommel said:


> Well the commercials available where I am, I don't see what you're saying but then again, do you have some links to the commercials you're talking about? I haven't seen the latest Galaxy SII commercial you're talking about, but the ones I do see here are from the carriers (Bells and Teluses of the world).
> 
> As for your rarely if ever comment, malarkey. Look at the I'm a mac commercials, the Power MAC G3 (toasting the Pentium 2 processor in public... up to twice as fast), Power MAC G4 (Pentium PCs are harmless), Intel Chip in a MAC (Intel chip trapped in a PC, being set free etc.) or "This is a highly sophisticated office computer and to use it all you have to do is learn this.", "Let's say you're working on this difficult to use PC" etc. etc. This list is very lengthy.
> 
> Btw, are you an Apple fan?


Yes, I am a fan of Apple and thier products, I won't deny that. 

The Mac vs. PC commercials were different. They used human characters to represent the respective systems. I could be mistaken, but I don't recall PCs actually being shown. If so, it was rare. There is a difference - and those set of commercials were highly effective and award winning. I can't attest to the earlier commercials - perhaps you're right. But at least recently Apple has been focusing on the merits of their own products, with great success. Samsung's commercial not only made fun of Apple but also their perceived user base - I think that is crossing the line and going to prove very ineffective. 

I'm at work right now, I'll put some links up when I get home.


----------



## GOB

rookie said:


> if you read the amazon article i posted, you can clearly see that they are not in the same market space as apple. they have a target price of 150-200$ and apple's cheapest phone is 500+. of course, if people become sensible enough to buy what they need and not what they "think they might want", this could indeed kill apple, unless they change their product offerings. but i do not think that will be the case.


I am aware of the pricing. The problem is, the Kindle Fire has terrible reviews because it was built so cheaply. I don't see why their phone will be any different. Apple mobile products are actually not expensive - competitors are really struggling to match Apple's quality with their prices. Where Apple makes their big margins is in the supply chain and operations aspect of the market. Look at the prices of higher-end Android phones and tablets that attempt to compete with the iPad.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> You're kidding, right?


No, but perhaps I'm mistaken. Examples of anything recent?


----------



## Rommel

GOB said:


> Yes, I am a fan of Apple and thier products, I won't deny that.
> 
> The Mac vs. PC commercials were different. They used human characters to represent the respective systems. I could be mistaken, but I don't recall PCs actually being shown. If so, it was rare. There is a difference - and those set of commercials were highly effective and award winning. I can't attest to the earlier commercials - perhaps you're right. But at least recently Apple has been focusing on the merits of their own products, with great success. Samsung's commercial not only made fun of Apple but also their perceived user base - I think that is crossing the line and going to prove very ineffective.
> 
> I'm at work right now, I'll put some links up when I get home.


Apple did the same thing in the 1980s that Samsung did. I now know the one relative commercial to your statement. Go watch a chronology of Apple commercials. They target competitors implicitly and explicitly.

As for proving ineffective well look at what Apple has done. Ticked off their major supplier (had to find a new one as a result) and now lag them in Smartphone sales.


----------



## andrewf

> Samsung's commercial not only made fun of Apple but also their perceived user base - I think that is crossing the line and going to prove very ineffective.


And portraying PC users (you know, 90% of computer users) as frumpy tools was not crossing the line? The campaign was designed to attach a stigma to using PCs, not to promote the merits of Apple products. It was probably this campaign that I found particularly offensive.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> And portraying PC users (you know, 90% of computer users) as frumpy tools was not crossing the line? The campaign was designed to attach a stigma to using PCs, not to promote the merits of Apple products. It was probably this campaign that I found particularly offensive.


That's where you're wrong. The PC itself was what was portrayed as a frumpy tool. It's "I'm a PC" not "I'm a PC user". There is a big difference. 

Whatever. This is an investing forum so I'll try not to get too sidetracked from now on. I guess I should be thanking the dissenters because that's what makes a market and that's what keeps Apple a bargain, until one day it won't be. Time will tell.


----------



## kcowan

Spudd said:


> What about those "I'm a Mac. I'm a PC." commercials?


Yes those seem to have been effective if Mac market share means anything. But that might have been iPod/iPhone drag-along and not advert related.


----------



## Spudd

kcowan said:


> Yes those seem to have been effective if Mac market share means anything. But that might have been iPod/iPhone drag-along and not advert related.


I wasn't actually saying they were effective, I was responding to the poster who said that Apple never use competitor's products in their ads. 

Personally, I hated those ads.


----------



## GOB

Spudd said:


> I wasn't actually saying they were effective, I was responding to the poster who said that Apple never use competitor's products in their ads.
> 
> Personally, I hated those ads.


Yes, even the Mac vs. PC commercials never used PCs in the ads. I just watched a whole bunch and not a single PC was seen. That's what I meant. Yes, obviously PCs shortcomings were referenced but done in a way not to make users feel stupid and to highlight the benefits of Mac. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siSHJfPWxs8

Now compare to Samsung's latest offering, featuring iPods, iPhones, a long Apple store lineup showing huge demand for their products, bashing a large segment of the population (what's wrong if you're a barista anyway?) oh, and a few seconds of the "massive" SGSII. Good for a laugh and nothing else.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVkH9Hgvda4

And many other Android commercials that don't talk about iPhone leave you wondering what the heck they are trying to sell you. Granted, there are so many phones so I can't speak for all of them - there are some that actually do focus on what their phone does and I find those at least somewhat effective.


----------



## andrewf

^ Hadn't seen the ad before. Samsung is absolutely right to hit Apple there. The hipster d-bag poseur air to the Apple brand hurts it among a decent chunk of the population. There is a big nugget of truth in that stereotype.


Guy 1:
"I could never get a Samsung--I'm creative."

Guy 2:
"Dude, you're a barrista."

Honestly, the ad is no worse than the "I'm a Mac" campaign.


----------



## GOB

I still think it is a terribly ineffective commercial. All it does is make existing Android/Samsung users laugh and feel good about themselves. They clearly aren't trying to make iPhone users switch.

As for the barista line, why can't a creative person be a barista? I certainly don't want my personality to be defined by my job, or my phone for that matter. Do you select your friends based on how they earn a living?

I think this "hipster" stereotype is vastly overplayed. Perhaps it started off that way, but now almost everyone wants an iPhone or Apple product, even many of those who have other phones but can't switch due to contracts or availability etc. I would say the "hipster" portion of Apple users is a very small fraction, and that they also use Android phones in large numbers. I see an increasing numbers of doctors, lawyers, engineers etc. adopting the iPhone. What a bunch of hipsters. They would just laugh at this commercial, and move on without even remembering what phone was being advertised.

I think it's just an offensive ad. It would be funny if it was a spoof made by someone, but for Samsung to actually put this out themselves is quite juvenile, and really indicates how threatened they are by Apple's success (even though they are currently enjoying their own success as well).

Back on topic. - can anyone name a company with equal or better risk/return that what Apple offers?


----------



## kcowan

GOB said:


> Back on topic. - can anyone name a company with equal or better risk/return that what Apple offers?


Lululemon, which I also hold, comes close in the retail segment. Of course its numbers are not as good, but they are when you consider the segment in which they operate.


----------



## andrewf

GOB said:


> Back on topic. - can anyone name a company with equal or better risk/return that what Apple offers?




No, Apple is the best investment in the world. It will shortly be worth trillions. It'll have to get there the hard way, though, with a 10 p/e.


----------



## Rommel

lol andrewf!

Gob, friend. We understand you despise Android but you know what they say, Haters gonna hate!


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> No, Apple is the best investment in the world. It will shortly be worth trillions. It'll have to get there the hard way, though, with a 10 p/e.


It's an honest question. No need to get all sarcastic if you can't think of anything. I'm genuinely interested in other equally strong options so that I can do my due diligence and consider investing in them too. 

You sound like a typical cynical person who always criticizes without offering solutions.


----------



## GOB

Rommel said:


> lol andrewf!
> 
> Gob, friend. We understand you despise Android but you know what they say, Haters gonna hate!


I'm trying to get away from Apple vs Android now an focus on investment options. The fact that nobody can offer suggestions save for LULU is rather telling, don't you think? My question still stands....waiting for more answers. Surely there must be tons of better investment options since Apple is on the brink of disaster due to Android domination. After all, there are only so many hipsters on this planet and now Samsung is going to steal them.


----------



## andrewf

Samsung is not investable.

I didn't offer any suggestions because I don't spend much time thinking about stock picking. I suggest shorting Groupon. And I didn't say that Apple is going to implode tomorrow. But they may be making a long-term strategic error by falling back to niche status. That only works if you are significantly better. If Apple's lead in technology is eroded (surely impossible) and it has small market share, that is a recipe for getting squeezed like a teenage pimple, as Uncle Kevin likes to say.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Samsung is not investable.
> 
> I didn't offer any suggestions because I don't spend much time thinking about stock picking. I suggest shorting Groupon. And I didn't say that Apple is going to implode tomorrow. But they may be making a long-term strategic error by falling back to niche status. That only works if you are significantly better. If Apple's lead in technology is eroded (surely impossible) and it has small market share, that is a recipe for getting squeezed like a teenage pimple, as Uncle Kevin likes to say.


You still haven't proven Apple is making any mistake. As I explained earlier, Apple is in fact going after market share while maintaining high margins on their flagship models. Sounds like a winning strategy to me. Demand is greater than supply. Sure, they can increase their production capabilities (as they have been and are currently doing so) but that takes time and doesn't happen overnight. It seems like you expect Apple to be able to sell more units than all its other competitors combined - a silly proposition. 

Apple's business model has never been to maximize their market share at the expense of profits or product quality. This is not going to change. In fact, if it does I will sell off my stock as they will just be like all the rest. 

In an area as large as tech, niche can indeed represent a huge number of people and be a winning strategy. What is Mac market share? Who makes the highest PC profits? 

Shorting Groupon is one thing we can agree on at least.


----------



## Argonaut

Since does the (sometimes) largest company in the world represent a niche market?

I think the answer to the Apple argument lies somewhere in the middle, but to me the bottom line is that it just isn't that attractive of a stock to hold. A big boo on their high nominal share price and the lack of dividends. The way to play it is with options, whenever the implied volatility that the market is giving everything dies down. Or one could sell put spreads right now.


----------



## Rommel

GOB said:


> I'm trying to get away from Apple vs Android now an focus on investment options. The fact that nobody can offer suggestions save for LULU is rather telling, don't you think? My question still stands....waiting for more answers. Surely there must be tons of better investment options since Apple is on the brink of disaster due to Android domination. After all, there are only so many hipsters on this planet and now Samsung is going to steal them.


It's hardly a fact as you say. You want a better technology investment long term? Look at Intel. Look at Nvidia. Intel has a growing dividend payment and is dominating the CPU market. Nvidia is about to run away with the show compared to AMD given AMD's major mistakes of recent.

Apple? I think it's going to decline very soon, but that's me. For the past three months they have started a decline and well, unless they continue to post huge record numbers, they will experience a much needed correction.

Too bad we can't invest in Samsung in the US Market yet. I'd put money on them


----------



## GOB

Rommel said:


> It's hardly a fact as you say. You want a better technology investment long term? Look at Intel. Look at Nvidia. Intel has a growing dividend payment and is dominating the CPU market. Nvidia is about to run away with the show compared to AMD given AMD's major mistakes of recent.
> 
> Apple? I think it's going to decline very soon, but that's me. For the past three months they have started a decline and well, unless they continue to post huge record numbers, they will experience a much needed correction.
> 
> Too bad we can't invest in Samsung in the US Market yet. I'd put money on them


Intel is a good investment (I own some myself) but they are largely tied to the PC industry which is growing at a snail's pace. Apple designs their own chips on their phones and tablets so Intel loses out on a huge chunk of that space. 

Apple has already declined significantly while posting record numbers. This is not a new phenomenon if you have been following the stock, and it is not a long term indicator. Once Apple rises again it will easily eclipse its highs and keep going until the next consolidation phase. 

Samsung? You think they are more likely to grow than Apple? On what basis? Apple has the past and current figures to back it up, along with an undeniable penchant for innovation. Samsung will hop aboard and copy whatever Apple puts out next, while continuing to make some nice appliances but at razor thin margins. I don't see the appeal of investing in Samsung over Apple.


----------



## andrewf

Samsung also has a pretty impressive record of entering markets and dominating them. There is nothing wrong with being a fast follower, either.


----------



## kcowan

andrewf said:


> Samsung also has a pretty impressive record of entering markets and dominating them. There is nothing wrong with being a fast follower, either.


That was LGs claim to fame initially (after reinvention after their Goldstar fiasco). They aimed to have the top position in any segment they entered. I am not sure where/whether they fell by the wayside.

But investing in a company and using their technology should be totally separate, shouldn't it? I mean good luck trying to make money on Toyota, Honda or Ford stock.


----------



## GOB

kcowan said:


> That was LGs claim to fame initially (after reinvention after their Goldstar fiasco). They aimed to have the top position in any segment they entered. I am not sure where/whether they fell by the wayside.
> 
> But investing in a company and using their technology should be totally separate, shouldn't it? I mean good luck trying to make money on Toyota, Honda or Ford stock.


Exactly. Being a good copycat is hardly a sound business plan. You're doing what everyone else is trying to do as well. Apple is rather unique in the tech field in that regard. Nobody can match their strategy - everyone is waiting on whatever Apple puts out next so they can fire up their proverbial photocopiers. I mean, it didn't take a genius to figure that a touch screen tablet would be the next sought after device after the smartphone craze, yet it was Apple that put it out first befre anyone else even attempted to. Does that not tell you anything? Apple's impact in the industry makes them a rock solid investment.


----------



## GOB

There goes Apple, willingly ceding market share becuase Andrew says they are...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...-to-get-Apple-market-share-growing-again.html

Too bad they don't lower prices to sell more phones that they cannot make fast enough, right? I'm glad the right people are running the company and not armchair quarterbacks.


----------



## Rommel

GOB said:


> Intel is a good investment (I own some myself) but they are largely tied to the PC industry which is growing at a snail's pace. Apple designs their own chips on their phones and tablets so Intel loses out on a huge chunk of that space.
> 
> Apple has already declined significantly while posting record numbers. This is not a new phenomenon if you have been following the stock, and it is not a long term indicator. Once Apple rises again it will easily eclipse its highs and keep going until the next consolidation phase.
> 
> Samsung? You think they are more likely to grow than Apple? On what basis? Apple has the past and current figures to back it up, along with an undeniable penchant for innovation. Samsung will hop aboard and copy whatever Apple puts out next, while continuing to make some nice appliances but at razor thin margins. I don't see the appeal of investing in Samsung over Apple.


Whatever part of the market for PCs Apple owns, Intel is already there (partnership). As for missing out on the tablet/smartphone market, Intel is already hard at work designing a competitive solution from their brand perspective. Intel isn't going away soon, that's for sure. Intel pays a dividend, something Apple does not. That is very important in my view.

You're making a very bold statement regarding Apple's growth. Their prime visionary is dead which means that they have 3-4 years left of his legacy to live out before they have to come up with something new on their own. This is not an easy task since many of Apple's competitors have caught up or eclipsed what they have to offer at the same price and for the ones close behind, it's only a matter of time, a very short matter of time. Look at the situation regarding the Macbook Air or the iPhone refreshes. Apple should have come out with the iPhone 5, not the 4S. They are currently more focused on litigation than innovation and the courts are responding negatively now to Apple's patent trolling.

Samsung tends to dominate markets it enters in by choice. Apple on the other hand has had to work very hard and wait for chances to do the same. If Microsoft hadn't been dead money for the last decade there is no way Apple is what they are today.

Just wait until Samsung offers an ADR to US investors.


----------



## Rommel

GOB said:


> There goes Apple, willingly ceding market share becuase Andrew says they are...
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...-to-get-Apple-market-share-growing-again.html
> 
> Too bad they don't lower prices to sell more phones that they cannot make fast enough, right? I'm glad the right people are running the company and not armchair quarterbacks.


That also says Android is on top and let's see... Android's new stuff isn't included because it doesn't go on sale until December.


----------



## Abha

Rommel said:


> Samsung tends to dominate markets it enters in by choice. Apple on the other hand has had to work very hard and wait for chances to do the same. If Microsoft hadn't been dead money for the last decade there is no way Apple is what they are today.


That is a very unfair generalization of Apple's success. In actuality, Apple doesn't have to work hard at all. They dominate the tablet market, they own a niche market whereby marketing and R&D costs are a fraction of their competitors and they've established enough goodwill from shareholders that they can make a few missteps and not be crushed by overzealous fund managers.


----------



## GOB

Rommel said:


> Whatever part of the market for PCs Apple owns, Intel is already there (partnership). As for missing out on the tablet/smartphone market, Intel is already hard at work designing a competitive solution from their brand perspective. Intel isn't going away soon, that's for sure. Intel pays a dividend, something Apple does not. That is very important in my view.
> 
> You're making a very bold statement regarding Apple's growth. Their prime visionary is dead which means that they have 3-4 years left of his legacy to live out before they have to come up with something new on their own. This is not an easy task since many of Apple's competitors have caught up or eclipsed what they have to offer at the same price and for the ones close behind, it's only a matter of time, a very short matter of time. Look at the situation regarding the Macbook Air or the iPhone refreshes.* Apple should have come out with the iPhone 5, not the 4S. *They are currently more focused on litigation than innovation and the courts are responding negatively now to Apple's patent trolling.
> 
> Samsung tends to dominate markets it enters in by choice. Apple on the other hand has had to work very hard and wait for chances to do the same. If Microsoft hadn't been dead money for the last decade there is no way Apple is what they are today.
> 
> Just wait until Samsung offers an ADR to US investors.


if Apple called the exact same phone the 5 instead of the 4S you would be happy along with a few others who just don't get it. Who cares what they called it? It was a huge refresh with another revolutionary feature (Siri). It is the best selling smartphone on the planet, despite it being called the 4S. Apple doesn't pander, and perhaps that does factor into their poor current stock performance but eventually fundamentals catch up.

As for my bold statement on growth, do you realize that just 3-4 years at their current growth (or even less) will leave Apple with more cash than their entire market cap? If even you are willing to acknowledge that Apple may have a few years of growth left, please tell me how this is not a no-brainer investment. 

I wasn't aware that a months-long injunction against Samsung's Galaxy tablet (i.e. iPad copycat) was a negative response by the courts. No, they are winning every suit, but evidence is clearly mounting that Android and its vendors are in violation of many, many patents, and not just Apple's. Give your head a shake. 
Do some fact checking and math before calling me out on my bold claims. I never did say Apple is going to grow forever, by the way.


----------



## andrewf

I guess we'll see. The history in tech is that no company managed to stay on top forever. Betting that this time is different is usually not wise.



> Being a good copycat is hardly a sound business plan.


Nonsense. Letting someone else go to the expense of experimenting and waiting until the market opportunity is demonstrated before committing capital is a very sensible and successful business strategy.

And one data point does not negate a trend. Yes, you would expect an uptick after an Apple launch, given the way they try to sell many millions of units in the first few days (I bet they had over 50% marketshare on the day the launched the 4S--crisis averted!). Is it sustainable? We'll have to wait and see. I suspect it was an uptick on the downtrend and that both iOS and RIM will be under 20% in the next year.


----------



## GOB

And I predict no matter what the market share breakdown is, Apple will continue raking in the majority of the industry's profits next year and beyond. 

I was not inferring the the trend is reversing for good but merely countering your ridiculous statement that Apple is deliberately giving up market share and they should cut prices to reclaim it. The will maintain whatever market share allows them to be incredibly profitable...I cannot think of a better strategy than that, can you?

Did you not mention that you don't pick individual stocks? If you really know as much as you act like you do, I don't see why you wouldn't. If you are so aware of the industry trends and the effect on various companies it would be relatively easy to make some sound investments, right? I do...I'll update you an let you know how it goes in here, win or lose.

Your argument that no company stays on top forever is a common one. I actually appen to agree with it. What I struggle with is how that fact translates to "Apple is not a good investment". The very worst that can happen is already priced in - Apple stops growing immediately and becomes a divided paying megacap. I can live with that as a worst case. The likely case is Apple continued growing and racking up massive profits for at least the next few years, resulting in an inevitable rise in share price.


----------



## kcowan

Rommel said:


> Just wait until Samsung offers an ADR to US investors.


Why wait when you can buy Toyota and Honda? How about Sony? There are many ADR choices today. No need to wait!


----------



## Rommel

GOB said:


> This statement right here shows how ignorant you are. If Apple called the exact same phone the 5 instead of the 4S you would be happy along with a few other idiots who just don't get it. Who cares what they called it? It was a huge refresh with another revolutionary feature (Siri). It is the best selling smartphone on the planet, despite it being called the 4S. Apple doesn't pander to fools, and perhaps that does factor into their poor current stock performance but eventually fundamentals catch up.
> 
> As for my bold statement on growth, do you realize that just 3-4 years at their current growth (or even less) will leave Apple with more cash than their entire market cap? If even you are willing to acknowledge that Apple may have a few years of growth left, please tell me how this is not a no-brainer investment.
> 
> I wasn't aware that a months-long injunction against Samsung's Galaxy tablet (i.e. iPad copycat) was a negative response by the courts. No, they are winning every suit, but evidence is clearly mounting that Android and its vendors are in violation of many, many patents, and not just Apple's. Give your head a shake.
> Do some fact checking and math before calling me out on my bold claims. I never did say Apple is going to grow forever, by the way.


Listen buddy, before you continue running your mouth off, calling people ignorant and idiots, learn that it has no place here and well, you have a lot of learning to do.

First and foremost the difference between the iPhone 4S and the 5 is not in the name of the device, it is whether the device is a new device with new features or a refreshed device which Apple has a habit of doing as of late. 

Second, Siri was NOT Apple's invention. Siri released their software as an iOS app until Apple bought out Siri in 2011 and bought the rights to it. Siri wanted to release their software for Blackberry and Android but when they were bought out, such goals ended. Siri is neat, it's good, but it's evolutionary and not revolutionary. Google's voice search paved the way years ago and so much so that its innovation forced Apple to team up with AT&T to have it removed from the App Store. Had you done your homework GOB, you would know this.

Most of Apple's users are not technologically savvy. Why do you think the company resorts to lies when selling their products? For example "Macs don't get viruses." or "Macs are more secure". Do you think the people buying into this mantra are executing sound judgement? Apple panders to fools alright, they get most of their money from them. You will hardly find informed IT professionals recommending Apple products based on the merits of their technological strengths. How much thought have you given to why Apple has lost out big time on Corporate and Educational marketshare and have not recovered?

As for the injunctions against Samsung for "copying" Apple's products how closely have you been following the trials? You do realize that some of the questions posed by the Judges to the Lawyers are just plain stupid right? "Please tell the difference between the two devices at 10 feet." Who uses the device from 10 feet away and why are you asking Trial Lawyers who are not likely consumers of the stuff such an absurd question?

How about last week the Australian appeals court judge that openly called Apple's tablet approach a monopoly? What about the California Judge that has thrown out some of Apple's Anti-trust claims? How about Apple losing to NT-K a month ago in Spain? What about the suit they just lost to Nokia in Germany? etc. etc. etc.

So much for winning every suit. Open your eyes man, this is embarrassing.

Apple is picking on nearly everyone and that alone does not bode well for them. One day Apple will be humbled. Apple is like the spoiled rich kid who demands they way through life and acts like a big baby when things go awry.

Finally, I've done lots of fact checking and am happy to point out your erroneous statements.


----------



## Rommel

kcowan said:


> Why wait when you can buy Toyota and Honda? How about Sony? There are many ADR choices today. No need to wait!


Since when do car and machinery manufacturers offer an alternative to Apple in the technology world?

When did Apple start making cars again?

Sony? Nope, my concern is with Samsung.


----------



## GOB

Rommel said:


> Listen buddy, before you continue running your mouth off, calling people ignorant and idiots, learn that it has no place here and well, you have a lot of learning to do.
> 
> First and foremost the difference between the iPhone 4S and the 5 is not in the name of the device, it is whether the device is a new device with new features or a refreshed device which Apple has a habit of doing as of late.
> 
> Second, Siri was NOT Apple's invention. Siri released their software as an iOS app until Apple bought out Siri in 2011 and bought the rights to it. Siri wanted to release their software for Blackberry and Android but when they were bought out, such goals ended. Siri is neat, it's good, but it's evolutionary and not revolutionary. Google's voice search paved the way years ago and so much so that its innovation forced Apple to team up with AT&T to have it removed from the App Store. Had you done your homework GOB, you would know this.
> 
> Most of Apple's users are not technologically savvy. Why do you think the company resorts to lies when selling their products? For example "Macs don't get viruses." or "Macs are more secure". Do you think the people buying into this mantra are executing sound judgement? Apple panders to fools alright, they get most of their money from them. You will hardly find informed IT professionals recommending Apple products based on the merits of their technological strengths. How much thought have you given to why Apple has lost out big time on Corporate and Educational marketshare and have not recovered?
> 
> As for the injunctions against Samsung for "copying" Apple's products how closely have you been following the trials? You do realize that some of the questions posed by the Judges to the Lawyers are just plain stupid right? "Please tell the difference between the two devices at 10 feet." Who uses the device from 10 feet away and why are you asking Trial Lawyers who are not likely consumers of the stuff such an absurd question?
> 
> How about last week the Australian appeals court judge that openly called Apple's tablet approach a monopoly? What about the California Judge that has thrown out some of Apple's Anti-trust claims? How about Apple losing to NT-K a month ago in Spain? What about the suit they just lost to Nokia in Germany? etc. etc. etc.
> 
> So much for winning every suit. Open your eyes man, this is embarrassing.
> 
> Apple is picking on nearly everyone and that alone does not bode well for them. One day Apple will be humbled. Apple is like the spoiled rich kid who demands they way through life and acts like a big baby when things go awry.
> 
> Finally, I've done lots of fact checking and am happy to point out your erroneous statements.


You're hilarious. 

How many more new features do you want between iOS, Siri, an amazing camera rivaling that of most dedicated point an shoots, and upgraded hardware? Do you want it to toast your bread too? Most people seem very happy with the "refreshed" 4S. Just because it looks the same does not mean it is the same.

Never did I say Apple invented Siri, so I don't know why you're ranting about it. Go on, check. And yes, it is revolutionary. Voice commands vs AI that understands context is most certainly not the same, and the latter has far more future applications than the former. Apple has a history of buying small companies that have great ideas/tech an making them huge. Nothing wrong with that. Tey do it legally...

Macs do get far fewer viruses. Perhaps not zero, but it is extremely difficult to get one "in the wild". Yes, Macs are more secure. Deal with it...

As for the Samsung suit, the point of the question was to show that Samsung blatantly copied Apple's (patented) design, which was what the lawsuit was for. Ten feet is not very far, two differently designed products would be easily distinguishable. Again, I never said Apple wins every lawsuit, but I wouldn't say they are failing in their approach to defend their IP. It is a long drawn out process, and you would have to be stupid to not try and defend intellectual property worth several billions of dollars. 

Any more questions?

P.S. educational market share? Have you been to a university campus lately? And corporate is growing too. Fragmented android is going to have a much, much harder time entering the corporate space than iOS will, that's almost certain.


----------



## andrewf

GOB said:


> And I predict no matter what the market share breakdown is, Apple will continue raking in the majority of the industry's profits next year and beyond.
> 
> I was not inferring the the trend is reversing for good but merely countering your ridiculous statement that Apple is deliberately giving up market share and they should cut prices to reclaim it. The will maintain whatever market share allows them to be incredibly profitable...I cannot think of a better strategy than that, can you?


Yes, it is likely a profitable strategy for the next few years. But what happens when Google controls the platform that has 10x the users of iOS? Do you think that is a strategically wise position for Apple to let itself fall into?

I'm not saying that Apple has to cut its margins hugely. But they are making little to no effort to capture the low end of the scale. You could sell a iPhone 2 or 3 for hundreds less and still make a 50% gross margin. They certainly don't push these devices.



> Did you not mention that you don't pick individual stocks? If you really know as much as you act like you do, I don't see why you wouldn't. If you are so aware of the industry trends and the effect on various companies it would be relatively easy to make some sound investments, right? I do...I'll update you an let you know how it goes in here, win or lose.


You're engaging in ad hominem. I'm interested in the industry, but have no desire to try and second guess the market. You're the one who is convinced that the market is off by a mile giving Apple a very low multiple.



> Your argument that no company stays on top forever is a common one. I actually appen to agree with it. What I struggle with is how that fact translates to "Apple is not a good investment". The very worst that can happen is already priced in - Apple stops growing immediately and becomes a divided paying megacap. I can live with that as a worst case. The likely case is Apple continued growing and racking up massive profits for at least the next few years, resulting in an inevitable rise in share price.


Did I say Apple was a bad investment?

The very worst that can happen is that they experience negative unit growth or margin compression or both. I don't think it is especially likely in the next few years, but 5 - 10 years down the line I am not so sure.


----------



## andrewf

For what it's worth, I don't think Siri is exactly revolutionary. Google has been doing stuff like this for years. Siri is just a bit more polished. It's not novel in an 'AI' sense. I can see how some people might be impressed by some of the canned responses, but they are mostly parlour tricks. Also, it doesn't work in Canada :\.


----------



## Rommel

GOB said:


> You're hilarious.
> 
> How many more new features do you want between iOS, Siri, an amazing camera rivaling that of most dedicated point an shoots, and upgraded hardware? Do you want it to toast your bread too? Most people seem very happy with the "refreshed" 4S. Just because it looks the same does not mean it is the same.
> 
> Never did I say Apple invented Siri, so I don't know why you're ranting about it. Go on, check. And yes, it is revolutionary. Voice commands vs AI that understands context is most certainly not the same, and the latter has far more future applications than the former. Apple has a history of buying small companies that have great ideas/tech an making them huge. Nothing wrong with that. Tey do it legally...
> 
> Macs do get far fewer viruses. Perhaps not zero, but it is extremely difficult to get one "in the wild". Yes, Macs are more secure. Deal with it...
> 
> As for the Samsung suit, the point of the question was to show that Samsung blatantly copied Apple's (patented) design, which was what the lawsuit was for. Ten feet is not very far, two differently designed products would be easily distinguishable. Again, I never said Apple wins every lawsuit, but I wouldn't say they are failing in their approach to defend their IP. It is a long drawn out process, and you would have to be stupid to not try and defend intellectual property worth several billions of dollars.
> 
> Any more questions?
> 
> P.S. educational market share? Have you been to a university campus lately? And corporate is growing too. Fragmented android is going to have a much, much harder time entering the corporate space than iOS will, that's almost certain.


An amazing camera? Hardly. The camera is average in density compared to its competitors. The features and battery issues means it lacks behind. The fact that you cannot control color balance, ISO sensitivity and exposure means your camera is not amazing, it's plain.

I don't want more "features" per se in a phone. I want a phone that makes a leap forward, not a leap sideways (vertical advancement instead of horizontal). This happiness is driven by the greed for new. Anything deemed new, people flock to. Unfortunately for Apple, it masks fundamental flaws in their hardware and software models. Eventually they will have to address them or find their customers move on.

You directly implied Siri was all Apple because you explicitly said "refreshed with another revolutionary feature". No matter how much you imagine otherwise, Siri is not revolutionary. This AI nonsense is just that. It is driven by a broad searching algorithm (just like Google) and has several per-determined responses. At best it's pseudo-AI and as pointed out by andrewf, it's a polished variant of existing technology.

Take for example "Is there dust on the moon?" or that it cannot launch apps or the fact that you need to be dependent on a server for it to function. Here's a golden example "Sorry [name]. I can only look for businesses in the United States, and when you're using U.S. English." Here's one more for you to try and defend: "I can only look for businesses, maps, and traffic in the United States, and when you're using U.S. English. Sorry about that.." This is not AI, this is server dependent programming. Why release Siri globally if it is restricted to US, German and some French? Apple erroneously says it works in English yet when taken to Canada or the UK or even Australia it fails miserably while Google still plugs along. But but but in 2012 it will support more languages.... LOL

What sort of thinly veiled attack is "Tey [sic] do it legally..."? I mean quit fooling yourself.

Macs are not more secure. Ever hear of DefCon? Regularly they offer the latest Mac flavor to anyone in the crowd; "If you can crack this or crack this the fastest, you can have it." In other words, it's junk and techies have a field day exploiting it. As for in the wild viruses? Those are precisely the ones that screw over Apple users because they have to wait for a Kernel update to fix it. Given Apple's slow development cycle, bad news for the fanboys er Consumers.


If you take off the label from the front of several TVs made with Toshiba or LG tubes, it would be very difficult to tell the difference at 10 feet. 10 feet is the wrong metric to compare such a small device at. Laptops without brand names at 10 feet are hard to differentiate even. The question was done in poor judgement by a judge and any technically inclined judge would strike down such silliness. Trial lawyers are not the consumers in question. They cannot be substituted. They are paid to push paper and win favor. They are not paid to window shop or mystery shop the products the company's they represent make. You happen to agree with the ruling simply because it's Apple winning and you are unreasonably biased towards Apple.

Apple's "patented" design was first found in Stanley Kubrik's 2001: A Space Odyssey. So much for being original.

You did say Apple wins every suit:

"No, they are winning every suit," <--- That's you in post #336.

No one is saying that Apple should not defend their intellectual property. That has not been the issue. The issue has always been that Apple has chosen litigation versus innovation (makes sense given Job's illness and recent passing). Supplementary issues reside in the fact that Apple is choosing the fight this war as a monopoly and Europe and the US do not take kindly to Monopolies. Additionally, Apple is buying their patent chest from a legal standpoint which means they are in trouble should the US order proper and long-awaited patent reform. While you do your research, have you given consideration to the timing and location of the Patent filings for Apple? They have one of the biggest patent trolling teams in the world and that means short-term gain for long-term pain. Just ask Microsoft. Of course, you are familiar with the relevant examples I hope?

Corporate growing? The most sustainable company in Canada (TransCanada) has a directive from the Senior VP for IS (Information Services) that Apple Devices remain barred from the corporate network due to their security concerns. But that's only one company apart from Apple, I am hard pressed to think of a relevant company to support your claim. Which companies are relevant to your growth claim?

As for university campuses I assume your growth comments are relative to your observation about students using them on campus. More students are using them = more growth right? The university campus scene is dominated by the PC. Why? Students have a budget, they are most familiar with Windows than they are Mac and Windows has superior technological integration compared to Mac. On a side note, on Friday, I walked into a presentation with about 20 people to assist with why they could not display their video on the projector. Within a few seconds of opening the door I saw the presenter had a Mac and I blurted out "Oh great, it's a Mac." Most of the people in there laughed. Good job Apple, another example of PC to the rescue. "But but our Thunderbolt to HDMI is flawless" they say. BS.

Gob, if you're really serious, stop the insults, mockery and dancing around facts. Stay classy.


----------



## KaeJS

Rommel said:


> This happiness is driven by the greed for new. Anything deemed new, people flock to. Unfortunately for Apple, it masks fundamental flaws in their hardware and software models. Eventually they will have to address them or find their customers move on.


I have really tried to stay out of this thread.

However, as you said, people flock to new stuff.

Why is this an issue for Apple?

Apple _knows_ this. That's _why_ the iPhone 4S was not the iPhone 5.

They did it on purpose.


----------



## Lephturn

Enough arguing about it... lets talk trading it.

I sold a bull put spread in APPL on Friday for a nice credit. Jan 350/335. For those of you new to options that means I sold a 350 strike put in AAPL and capped my potential loss by buying a 335 strike put both for January expiration. If AAPL gets to January above 344 I make money. Nice move today, I'll let time tick and then scalp if I need to as it bounces around.

I was bummed it jumped so much today, I'm looking for a long position going into Q4 earnings. I hope to get my chance on a down day - in this market I shouldn't have to wait too long.

If your negative on AAPL fine - lay a trade out for us to talk about. Real money trades are good, but even a pretend negative trade to discuss would be interesting if you are bearish.

Personally - my call is that they crush Q4 - but I'd rather the vol calmed down a bit so I can build a position without paying too much.


----------



## Rommel

KaeJS said:


> I have really tried to stay out of this thread.
> 
> However, as you said, people flock to new stuff.
> 
> Why is this an issue for Apple?
> 
> Apple _knows_ this. That's _why_ the iPhone 4S was not the iPhone 5.
> 
> They did it on purpose.


The issue is not flocking to new stuff. Thanks for ignoring the context of my statement.

The reasons we have the iPhone 4S and not the 5 are because of the following:

1) Apple could not afford to design something completely new to react to their competition in such a short time (they could not dream to convince their manufacturing companies to re-tool in time also) so it was cheaper to include the iPad2's A5 and offset the production of the iPad2
2) Apple does not have a SOC solution that matches something like Nvidia's Tegra III (yet?)
3) Apple only recently solved the dual-core SOC solution and it released this in the spring of this year (March)
4) Apple's A6 reality is pressed between TSMC being able to produce and keep up and litigation with Samsung resolving to the point that Samsung is willing to accept a reverse bid to reproduce Apple's chips
and finally, and the most important point:
5) Apple has not advanced the Retina display due to manufacturing limitations


----------



## Lephturn

Rommel said:


> finally, and the most important point:
> 5) Apple has not advanced the Retina display due to manufacturing limitations


Fine, you see problems, I get it. The question is can you come up with a trade that will capitalize on your outlook?


----------



## Rommel

Lephturn said:


> Fine, you see problems, I get it. The question is can you come up with a trade that will capitalize on your outlook?


I think somewhere way back I predict a big decline in their books...SHORT THEM


----------



## larry81

when i trash something on the internet, i always like to quote scientific research to back up my claims


----------



## Rommel

lmao larry!


----------



## andrewf

I don't know what to make of that, other than to express some skepticism.


----------



## GOB

Rommel said:


> An amazing camera? Hardly. The camera is average in density compared to its competitors. The features and battery issues means it lacks behind. The fact that you cannot control color balance, ISO sensitivity and exposure means your camera is not amazing, it's plain.
> 
> I don't want more "features" per se in a phone. I want a phone that makes a leap forward, not a leap sideways (vertical advancement instead of horizontal). This happiness is driven by the greed for new. Anything deemed new, people flock to. Unfortunately for Apple, it masks fundamental flaws in their hardware and software models. Eventually they will have to address them or find their customers move on.
> 
> You directly implied Siri was all Apple because you explicitly said "refreshed with another revolutionary feature". No matter how much you imagine otherwise, Siri is not revolutionary. This AI nonsense is just that. It is driven by a broad searching algorithm (just like Google) and has several per-determined responses. At best it's pseudo-AI and as pointed out by andrewf, it's a polished variant of existing technology.
> 
> Take for example "Is there dust on the moon?" or that it cannot launch apps or the fact that you need to be dependent on a server for it to function. Here's a golden example "Sorry [name]. I can only look for businesses in the United States, and when you're using U.S. English." Here's one more for you to try and defend: "I can only look for businesses, maps, and traffic in the United States, and when you're using U.S. English. Sorry about that.." This is not AI, this is server dependent programming. Why release Siri globally if it is restricted to US, German and some French? Apple erroneously says it works in English yet when taken to Canada or the UK or even Australia it fails miserably while Google still plugs along. But but but in 2012 it will support more languages.... LOL
> 
> What sort of thinly veiled attack is "Tey [sic] do it legally..."? I mean quit fooling yourself.
> 
> Macs are not more secure. Ever hear of DefCon? Regularly they offer the latest Mac flavor to anyone in the crowd; "If you can crack this or crack this the fastest, you can have it." In other words, it's junk and techies have a field day exploiting it. As for in the wild viruses? Those are precisely the ones that screw over Apple users because they have to wait for a Kernel update to fix it. Given Apple's slow development cycle, bad news for the fanboys er Consumers.
> 
> 
> If you take off the label from the front of several TVs made with Toshiba or LG tubes, it would be very difficult to tell the difference at 10 feet. 10 feet is the wrong metric to compare such a small device at. Laptops without brand names at 10 feet are hard to differentiate even. The question was done in poor judgement by a judge and any technically inclined judge would strike down such silliness. Trial lawyers are not the consumers in question. They cannot be substituted. They are paid to push paper and win favor. They are not paid to window shop or mystery shop the products the company's they represent make. You happen to agree with the ruling simply because it's Apple winning and you are unreasonably biased towards Apple.
> 
> Apple's "patented" design was first found in Stanley Kubrik's 2001: A Space Odyssey. So much for being original.
> 
> You did say Apple wins every suit:
> 
> "No, they are winning every suit," <--- That's you in post #336.
> 
> No one is saying that Apple should not defend their intellectual property. That has not been the issue. The issue has always been that Apple has chosen litigation versus innovation (makes sense given Job's illness and recent passing). Supplementary issues reside in the fact that Apple is choosing the fight this war as a monopoly and Europe and the US do not take kindly to Monopolies. Additionally, Apple is buying their patent chest from a legal standpoint which means they are in trouble should the US order proper and long-awaited patent reform. While you do your research, have you given consideration to the timing and location of the Patent filings for Apple? They have one of the biggest patent trolling teams in the world and that means short-term gain for long-term pain. Just ask Microsoft. Of course, you are familiar with the relevant examples I hope?
> 
> Corporate growing? The most sustainable company in Canada (TransCanada) has a directive from the Senior VP for IS (Information Services) that Apple Devices remain barred from the corporate network due to their security concerns. But that's only one company apart from Apple, I am hard pressed to think of a relevant company to support your claim. Which companies are relevant to your growth claim?
> 
> As for university campuses I assume your growth comments are relative to your observation about students using them on campus. More students are using them = more growth right? The university campus scene is dominated by the PC. Why? Students have a budget, they are most familiar with Windows than they are Mac and Windows has superior technological integration compared to Mac. On a side note, on Friday, I walked into a presentation with about 20 people to assist with why they could not display their video on the projector. Within a few seconds of opening the door I saw the presenter had a Mac and I blurted out "Oh great, it's a Mac." Most of the people in there laughed. Good job Apple, another example of PC to the rescue. "But but our Thunderbolt to HDMI is flawless" they say. BS.
> 
> Gob, if you're really serious, stop the insults, mockery and dancing around facts. Stay classy.


Wow...I don't know where to begin.

Firstly, I apologize for the typo. I meant to say "No, they NOT winning every suit." I can see how you got confused but the no at the start of the sentence kind of gives away what I meanr to say. Whatever. The insinuation that Apple is litigating rather than innovating is hilarious. You do realize Apple is universally known as the most innovative company in the world, for several years running? Let me guess, you thing Samsung and Google are more innovative? In today's world an innovative company needs a strong and active legal team because every competitor tries to poach IP. I agree the patent system is a big mess, but Apple has very little to do with it. 

Sure, I have a bias, but yours is bleeding obvious as well. I'll refrain from the attacks and stick with the facts you ask of me. 

The camera is unquestionably very, very good for a phone. There is arguably none better, and at the very least the 4S camera is in the top tier of smartphone cameras.

http://campl.us/posts/iPhone-Camera-Comparison

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/254...ominates-flickr-apple-cameras-photography.htm

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Samsung-Galaxy-Nexus-vs-Apple-iPhone-4S-camera-comparison_id24078

I never implied Siri came from Apple, and Apple doesn't either. They have, however, put a lot of work into it (still ongoing) and are in the process of making it mainstream. If you want a device that pushes the boundaries of actual innovation, iPhone is clearly the way to go. What exactly has Samsung innovated? A 5" screen? Nice...What do you think Android would look like if the iPhone never existed? You are bashing the very company that all these companies are trying to emulate...do you see the irony?

Wow, one company refuses to use iPhones. Here's a quote with some info you requested:



> During its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call, Apple said that by the end of the period, 93 percent of Fortune 500 companies were testing or deploying its iPad across their businesses.
> 
> On the iPhone side, according to the company, 60 percent of those firms were testing or deploying Apple’s handset. Those figures are up from the 91 percent and 57 percent last quarter that tried out the iPad and iPhone, respectively.
> 
> The company also pointed out that Lowes is “rolling out over 40,000 iPhones” to its employees. Considering those figures, it appears that Apple is far more of an enterprise-focused company than many thought possible.


http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Mobile-and...g-Fortune-500-Converts-10-Reasons-Why-200518/

http://travel.usatoday.com/cruises/...ribbean-cruise-ship-cabin-ipad-apple/572114/1

There are tons of similar stories of companies buying swaths of iPads. If you want, I can spend some time and link you several other such articles. 

Now, I challenge you to find me any info on how well Android devices are being adopted in enterprise. 

As for schools, I seriously doubt you have to been to a campus recently. Campuses are no longer dominated by PCs. PC share is eroding, and quite quickly. Macs are becoming ubiquitous, and these are the boomers of tomorrow. We already know Mac users have tremendous brand loyalty, so when all these kids grow up and have kids of their own, what do you think they're going to be using? Of course, PCs will still exist in large numbers, but Mac market share will likely be much larger than it is today.

And finally, security. I don't give two hoots about the fact that a wizard hacker may be able to hack a mac in a competition. The facts are clear and indisputable. Macs are far more secure than other PCs, and iOS is far more secure than Android. Again, deal with it, or provide numbers that show otherwise. 



> Juniper says there has been a 472% rise in Android malware samples since July 2011. Juniper says that almost all of the Android malware contains code for root access that will force the device to communicate with a command-and-control server and download additional instructions. 55% of Android malware acts as spyware and the rise of "SMS Trojans" has become a significant problem.


http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/android_malware_up_472_since_july_juniper_says_inf.php

Ouch. I would hate to do my banking on that thing..


----------



## GOB

Oops, looks like I forgot one more company that is supporting the iPhone...YOUR OWN.



Rommel said:


> Our company ditched Blackberry for Apple when they decided it was cheaper to support an iPhone. It also comes down to how a company deploys a security model. I work in IT for my company and I must say it's a complete joke here but that doesn't mean other companies are as bad off.


Wow..

I don't mean to be harsh, but it's common knowledge that IT professionals hate Macs. Why? Firstly (and I am generalizing here, but it is more often true than not), it's because they are good with computers and have been tinkering with Windows all their life, so customizability and troubleshooting every hour is like a drug to them. But it's also because Macs work better, have fewer issues and therefore require much fewer resources to be put into IT, who spend most of their time wiping hard drives to get rid of viruses (I work in a large company that uses Windows PCs, I know the pain). If Macs become more commonplace in enterprise, the corporate IT industry will be severely depleted.

The emergence and increasing domination of Apple poses a serious threat to the traditional IT workforce. Sad, but true.


----------



## KaeJS

Rommel said:


> The issue is not flocking to new stuff. Thanks for ignoring the context of my statement.
> 
> The reasons we have the iPhone 4S and not the 5 are because of the following:
> 
> 1) Apple could not afford to design something completely new to react to their competition in such a short time (they could not dream to convince their manufacturing companies to re-tool in time also) so it was cheaper to include the iPad2's A5 and offset the production of the iPad2
> 2) Apple does not have a SOC solution that matches something like Nvidia's Tegra III (yet?)
> 3) Apple only recently solved the dual-core SOC solution and it released this in the spring of this year (March)
> 4) Apple's A6 reality is pressed between TSMC being able to produce and keep up and litigation with Samsung resolving to the point that Samsung is willing to accept a reverse bid to reproduce Apple's chips
> and finally, and the most important point:
> 5) Apple has not advanced the Retina display due to manufacturing limitations


Are you serious?

They released the 4S on purpose. Just like the 3GS before it. 

Are you telling me these phones were both due to shortcomings? LOL. 

Bud, this is about making money. 

Tell me - will Apple sell more phones releasing an iPhone 4S and iPhone 5, or just an iPhone 5?

There is a reason they have tons of cash.


----------



## larry81

edit: i love shiny plastic object too !


----------



## GOB

Calm down Larry. I speak the truth.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/apple/tco...asier-cheaper-to-manage-than-windows-pcs/6294

Are macs better in every situation? No. But there are plenty of companies where they will (and do in increasing numbers) integrate very well. You mad?



> Another recent EDA survey found that 66 percent of IT administrators in large organizations that currently have both Macs and PCs will increase the number of Macs in their sites. The reasons? In addition to the ease of support (and the associated cost reductions found in the survey above), user preference, and increased productivity.


Funny how almost all of what I say can be support by citation, huh?

By the way, it's the non-Apple products that are plastic...

I'll be looking at my Apple shares for comfort in the future, don't you worry my friend.


----------



## larry81

GOB said:


> Calm down Larry. I speak the truth.
> 
> http://www.zdnet.com/blog/apple/tco...asier-cheaper-to-manage-than-windows-pcs/6294
> 
> Are macs better in every situation? No. But there are plenty of companies where they will (and do in increasing numbers) integrate very well. You mad?
> 
> By the way, it's the non-Apple products that are plastic...fool
> 
> I'll be looking at my Apple shares for comfort in the future, don't you worry my friend.


the study you mention speak of the... end-user desktop.

Here another one:

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-05-19/tech/apple.religion_1_apple-store-apple-employees-brains


----------



## GOB

larry81 said:


> the study you mention speak of the... end-user desktop.
> 
> Here another one:
> 
> http://articles.cnn.com/2011-05-19/tech/apple.religion_1_apple-store-apple-employees-brains


And the end-user desktop isn't important in the enterprise or the IT industry? There is also a section about "supporting infrastructure" (i.e. networks, servers) in which Macs are deemed cheaper. Keep reaching and bringing up points that are meaningless to the discussion.


----------



## larry81

GOB said:


> And the end-user desktop isn't important in the enterprise or the IT industry? There is also a section about "supporting infrastructure" (i.e. networks, servers) in which Macs are deemed cheaper. Keep reaching and bringing up points that are meaningless to the discussion.


funny how 'better' morphed into 'cheaper' suddenly... there no point arguing with religious people, you win the prize !!!


----------



## andrewf

So Macs are going to usurp Linux machines for servers? I think you're reaching.

By the way guys, try to keep these from turning into a flamefest, eh?


----------



## GOB

Yeah, better for the corporate space often means fewer problems and ultimately cheaper. Pretty obvious. We are talking about enterprise here. 

If it's cheaper to license, cheaper to troubleshoot, cheaper to train, cheaper to support all the while increasing productviity, I don't think it's a reach to say its probably the better choice. Fear of change is the only reason adoption isn't occurring even more quickly. 

I may be religious (I'm not) but at least I'm not a homophobe. 

Enjoy your day.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> So Macs are going to usurp Linux machines for servers? I think you're reaching.
> 
> By the way guys, try to keep these from turning into a flamefest, eh?


No, I'm not talking about the server side. I'm talking about Macs vs PCs in enterprise. Also the rapid implementation of the iPad in many companies. 

You're right, I'm tired of the arguing. I still haven't heard a compelling reason against my long position in AAPL stock, so I will continue defending any weak argument with counterpoints. 

A lot of people here are showing their biases by proclaiming opinion as fact, maybe myself included. I am at least backing up most of my major points with supporting evidence. After that argument is closed, my sexuality and religion are attacked because of my computing choice. Classy...


----------



## Rommel

KaeJS said:


> Are you serious?
> 
> They released the 4S on purpose. Just like the 3GS before it.
> 
> Are you telling me these phones were both due to shortcomings? LOL.
> 
> Bud, this is about making money.
> 
> Tell me - will Apple sell more phones releasing an iPhone 4S and iPhone 5, or just an iPhone 5?
> 
> There is a reason they have tons of cash.


I am serious in regards to the 4S. Go look it up. The 3GS doesn't apply here especially since when the 3GS came out, Apple was already working on their Retina display. Go lookup how tough it is for Apple to advance passed their Retina display in a mass scale. They have to switch chemical manufacturing processes to do so and Chinese workers have been complaining of fatal health hazards as a result. If China had the same worker establishments as the US Apple would be currently involved in a lawsuit that would have shut down iPhone 4 production and stopped 4S production from even starting.

Nobody is saying they have not been making money or that their goal is not to make money. Follow along and you're anxiety will pass.


----------



## GOB

Rommel said:


> I am serious in regards to the 4S. Go look it up. The 3GS doesn't apply here especially since when the 3GS came out, Apple was already working on their Retina display. Go lookup how tough it is for Apple to advance passed their Retina display in a mass scale. They have to switch chemical manufacturing processes to do so and Chinese workers have been complaining of fatal health hazards as a result. If China had the same worker establishments as the US Apple would be currently involved in a lawsuit that would have shut down iPhone 4 production and stopped 4S production from even starting.
> 
> Nobody is saying they have not been making money or that their goal is not to make money. Follow along and you're anxiety will pass.


I'm not doubting you but could you point me to a source that's not a rumour?


----------



## larry81

GOB said:


> A lot of people here are showing their biases by proclaiming opinion as fact, maybe myself included. I am at least backing up most of my major points with supporting evidence. After that argument is closed, my sexuality and religion are attacked because of my computing choice. Classy...


Don't play the victim card, nobody attacked your religion or sexuality. i cited two scientific article published in major news source, take them the way you want. 

I see that the vast majority of your posts are about Apple and their superiority ! What are you trying to achieve here preaching apple godspell ?


----------



## GOB

larry81 said:


> Don't play the victim card, nobody attacked your religion or sexuality. i cited two scientific article published in major news source, take them the way you want.
> 
> I see that the vast majority of your posts are about Apple and their superiority ! What are you trying to achieve here preaching apple godspell ?


Firstly, you did attack my supposed religion, and made strong inferences about the likely sexuality of Mac users (from a 2005 article), even going so far as to highlight the relevant section. What exactly was the purpose of these and how do they fit into this thread. We had been talking about Apple vs PC and Apple vs Android etc and you just took it way out of line. It's just juvenile. 

I'm just contributing knowledge in areas in which I am knowledgable. I don't contribute much in other sections, but I do read them. Is there a problem? I have been trying to make a case for the investment side of AAPL but this thread keeps getting derailed and yes, I get sucked in as well. 

Let's get back on track then. What are your thoughts on AAPL stock?


----------



## larry81

GOB said:


> What are your thoughts on AAPL stock?


GOOG will eat their lunch.


----------



## Lephturn

Rommel said:


> I think somewhere way back I predict a big decline in their books...SHORT THEM


So - you are short then? Or your at least suggesting a short from current levels - so $ 376 or so? Short how many shares?

What's your price target? Is there some point at which you will exit the trade if it goes against you? If it doesn't go either way far enough, is there a time limit or time stop at which point you would close the trade?

Fair is fair, here is a bit more information for my 350-335 put spread. My target is for the stock to stay above 350 at expiration, so I keep my maximum $450 credit on the spread. If the stock runs upwards enough that my short 350 put loses 95% of it's value or gets below $ .75 I will look to close it out and take profits. At that point the long put at 335 will be pretty much worthless and not worth selling.

If the stock drops below $360 I will look at the remaining value in the short 350 put and then decide if I want to roll it down. If enough time value has eroded I may buy this back and then depending on what I think happens next I either simply hold the long put at 335 or sell it and take profits. If the drop happens before or at expiration and I get a vol pop I will sell it and take profits. If it makes a big move down towards $350 I will probably roll down, and if it breaks $350 convincingly I'm out for a loss on the short 350 put but still managing the 335 put I own.

If the position still exists when APPL releases Q4 earnings (Jan 17) I will look to exit around earnings. I expect the vol to come out of the stock after earnings, so I will look to close my long 335 put just prior (if the stock is lower and I have any value in it). I will look to close my short 350 put prior to earnings to avoid the risk exposure.

Now time to work out a good play to buy cheap vol during the holiday period and position for earnings run-up in vol.


----------



## Lephturn

larry81 said:


> GOOG will eat their lunch.


So what's the trade? Pairs trade, long GOOG short AAPL from the current levels? Got any money on it? If not a real trade, feel free to suggest an imaginary one that we can talk about and track.


----------



## GOB

larry81 said:


> GOOG will eat their lunch.


Fair enough. We shall see.


----------



## Rommel

AppleFanBoy923475 said:


> ...


----------



## GOB

Lephturn said:


> So what's the trade? Pairs trade, long GOOG short AAPL from the current levels? Got any money on it? If not a real trade, feel free to suggest an imaginary one that we can talk about and track.


I'll bite. Long AAPL, short GOOG. 

Just for experimental purposes. I wouldn't actually short Google, but I wouldn't buy them either.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Ahem... Let's keep the discussions respectful guys.


----------



## GOB

Rommel said:


>


I'll assume you're talking about me. I provide you with reams of supporting evidence to my arguments, invite you to do the same. You provide nothing, and I'm the troll? 

Helpful life lesson. Not everyone who disagrees with you is wrong. Especially when their argument is much more compelling and supported by studies and statistics.


----------



## GOB

CanadianCapitalist said:


> Ahem... Let's keep the discussions respectful guys.


Noted. I am done here until AAPL breaks its all-time highs.


----------



## Rommel

Lephturn said:


> So what's the trade? Pairs trade, long GOOG short AAPL from the current levels? Got any money on it? If not a real trade, feel free to suggest an imaginary one that we can talk about and track.


I say long google and with Apple, play the stock reactionary to the market until Q1 2013 and then short 

Right now Apple has been experiencing a noticeable decline for the past 3m and 1m time frames but should get a good bounce for the holiday season.

For all the Apple fanboys out there. I hope you realize that Steve Jobs left them with approximately 4-5 "new ideas" prior to passing and even then the company has to implement them.


----------



## Rommel

Lephturn said:


> So - you are short then? Or your at least suggesting a short from current levels - so $ 376 or so? Short how many shares?
> 
> What's your price target? Is there some point at which you will exit the trade if it goes against you? If it doesn't go either way far enough, is there a time limit or time stop at which point you would close the trade?
> 
> Fair is fair, here is a bit more information for my 350-335 put spread. My target is for the stock to stay above 350 at expiration, so I keep my maximum $450 credit on the spread. If the stock runs upwards enough that my short 350 put loses 95% of it's value or gets below $ .75 I will look to close it out and take profits. At that point the long put at 335 will be pretty much worthless and not worth selling.
> 
> If the stock drops below $360 I will look at the remaining value in the short 350 put and then decide if I want to roll it down. If enough time value has eroded I may buy this back and then depending on what I think happens next I either simply hold the long put at 335 or sell it and take profits. If the drop happens before or at expiration and I get a vol pop I will sell it and take profits. If it makes a big move down towards $350 I will probably roll down, and if it breaks $350 convincingly I'm out for a loss on the short 350 put but still managing the 335 put I own.
> 
> If the position still exists when APPL releases Q4 earnings (Jan 17) I will look to exit around earnings. I expect the vol to come out of the stock after earnings, so I will look to close my long 335 put just prior (if the stock is lower and I have any value in it). I will look to close my short 350 put prior to earnings to avoid the risk exposure.
> 
> Now time to work out a good play to buy cheap vol during the holiday period and position for earnings run-up in vol.


Hey man, I like you and all but I have one question... are you looking for stock advice haha? 

If I was long at 335, I would have sold out at the 400 mark personally but you have the upcomming Christmas bounce to look forward to no?

I'm not personally playing Apple at the moment because of two reasons. 1) I have my money tied elsewhere and 2) like 1...Christmas is coming up and I need to shop still


----------



## larry81

Lephturn said:


> So what's the trade? Pairs trade, long GOOG short AAPL from the current levels? Got any money on it? If not a real trade, feel free to suggest an imaginary one that we can talk about and track.


I am long AAPL from 95$


----------



## Rommel

larry81 said:


> I am long AAPL from 95$


Nice job Larry!


----------



## larry81

Rommel said:


> Nice job Larry!


100 share, nothing special. If they announce a dividend soon i will sell in january to defer the tax on the gain for another year.

But i am still hoarding my TSE:SU and i hope you are too


----------



## Lephturn

GOB said:


> I'll bite. Long AAPL, short GOOG.
> 
> Just for experimental purposes. I wouldn't actually short Google, but I wouldn't buy them either.


Ok great, so long AAPL from $ 376.00 and short GOOG from $ 586.00. 

Let's say 13 shares of AAPL for $ 4,888.00
Short 8 shares of GOOG for $ 4,688.00

Say $ 30.00 comission for both transactions. Do you have any more to the trading plan? Limits at which you will get out of one or both? Time limit?

It will be interesting to track this and see how it plays out. I would encourage you to put this trade in as "play money" on your investing platform and watch it.


----------



## Rommel

larry81 said:


> 100 share, nothing special. If they announce a dividend soon i will sell in january to defer the tax on the gain for another year.
> 
> But i am still hoarding my TSE:SU and i hope you are too


I am holding it for sure and I wish I planned things better to be able to buy in this little dip haha. Oh well, patience and not greed is key for me!


----------



## Lephturn

Rommel said:


> I say long google and with Apple, play the stock reactionary to the market until Q1 2013 and then short
> 
> Right now Apple has been experiencing a noticeable decline for the past 3m and 1m time frames but should get a good bounce for the holiday season.
> 
> For all the Apple fanboys out there. I hope you realize that Steve Jobs left them with approximately 4-5 "new ideas" prior to passing and even then the company has to implement them.


So long GOOG from 585? For say $ 5,850 for 10 shares? I don't know what that means for AAPL... let us know if there are any trades you would do in it. Any upside targets or stop loss for GOOG?


----------



## Lephturn

Rommel said:


> Hey man, I like you and all but I have one question... are you looking for stock advice haha?
> 
> If I was long at 335, I would have sold out at the 400 mark personally but you have the upcomming Christmas bounce to look forward to no?
> 
> I'm not personally playing Apple at the moment because of two reasons. 1) I have my money tied elsewhere and 2) like 1...Christmas is coming up and I need to shop still


No, I am not long apple stock. I described an options strategy called a vertical put spread. I am using this to make a bet that AAPL stays above 350 but covering myself so that I can't lose any more than the difference between 350 and 335. I am bullish AAPL but at the current moment I don't wish to be naked long the stock. My trade is just one way to trade my opinion of AAPL, and I'm putting it here so we can watch my position and all learn as it changes over time - win or lose!

*What I am trying to do is change the direction of the discussion - it's not that valuable to argue about who's opinion is correct, I think we will all learn a lot more by talking about how we could trade that opinion (whatever it is) and then track the results.*


----------



## Rommel

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...aw-allowed-government-spying-for-3-years.html
http://news.yahoo.com/iphone-4-explodes-midflight-australian-airline-224014583.html
lolololololololololololol


Anyways Lephturn, what I mean by my statement is play the current trends. Apple will get a big boost this quarter from strong sales with the iPhone 4S and the holiday rush. If Apple does not address their shortcomings, Apple could face another 3-5% decrease in stock price. 2013 is the benchmark for me because their competitors will have technology that surpasses anything Apple is currently working on.

In other words, buy yesterday, hold for a small profit into quarter 1, buy or short accordingly thereafter until Q4 2012.

As for options... I am new to them but I am sure the core concepts apply.


----------



## andrewf

Exploding batteries is a problem for most gadgets. Sony had huge problems a few years ago. It is pretty scary, though.


----------



## Rommel

http://www.iclarified.com/entry/index.php?enid=18225

This should be taken into consideration for Apple investors.


----------



## m3s

That's a very explanatory image of how I perceive Apple's business, and why I don't invest in them

iPhone was by far their most revolutionary and profitable product. Like I've said before, I invest in mobile components, because I think these small devices that make no noise/heat and are faster than 5 year old desktops are the future. Regardless if it's Apple of Android

Small anecdote, watching my roomate try to use Android is hilarious (def not as intuitive at all!) My friend's wife bought an Android and they hate it as well. I'll probably switch to Android eventually, but for now I prefer Apple (and RIP Cdn RIM)


----------



## Lephturn

Rommel said:


> Anyways Lephturn, what I mean by my statement is play the current trends. Apple will get a big boost this quarter from strong sales with the iPhone 4S and the holiday rush. If Apple does not address their shortcomings, Apple could face another 3-5% decrease in stock price. 2013 is the benchmark for me because their competitors will have technology that surpasses anything Apple is currently working on.
> 
> In other words, buy yesterday, hold for a small profit into quarter 1, buy or short accordingly thereafter until Q4 2012.
> 
> As for options... I am new to them but I am sure the core concepts apply.


So... your trade is long AAPL until after their Q4 earnings call in Jan? I'll put you down for long 20 shares from 375 - you let me know when you want to sell that.  The good news is you are already up about $300.


----------



## Lephturn

My AAPL put spread position update:

APPLE INC	389.70

AAPL Jan12 335 Put	$10.35	$3.00	-0.72	$300.00	-735.00	
AAPL Jan12 350 Put	$14.85	$5.30	-0.95	($530.00)	955.00	
Total: ($230.00)	220.00

So I'm up $ 220 so far - we'll see how it goes. I would like a nice drop back to 360 at some point so I can get positioned for some upside for the Q4 earnings, but I want to see if the vol comes in first over the holidays.


----------



## Rommel

mode3sour said:


> http://www.iclarified.com/images/news/18225/63607/63607-500.png[\IMG]
> 
> That's a very explanatory image of how I perceive Apple's business, and why I don't invest in them
> 
> iPhone was by far their most revolutionary and profitable product. Like I've said before, I invest in mobile components, because I think these small devices that make no noise/heat and are faster than 5 year old desktops are the future. Regardless if it's Apple of Android
> 
> Small anecdote, watching my roomate try to use Android is hilarious (def not as intuitive at all!) My friend's wife bought an Android and they hate it as well. I'll probably switch to Android eventually, but for now I prefer Apple (and RIP Cdn RIM)[/QUOTE]
> 
> What android phones are they struggling with?


----------



## andrewf

When people struggle to use Android, Windows, Linux, etc. it is the fault of the OS/developer. When people struggle to use OSX/iOS, it is the fault of the user. The OS is perfect.


----------



## Rommel

andrewf said:


> When people struggle to use Android, Windows, Linux, etc. it is the fault of the OS/developer. When people struggle to use OSX/iOS, it is the fault of the user. The OS is perfect.


hahahah so true!


----------



## kcowan

My only experience is with the Samsung Galaxy smartphone. Seems very intuitive to me.


----------



## m3s

kcowan said:


> My only experience is with the Samsung Galaxy smartphone. Seems very intuitive to me.





Rommel said:


> What android phones are they struggling with?


I don't know, isn't Android the OS, so why does the phone matter? He was trying to add a song to a music playlist for days and then gave up LOL.

I can program easily on Linux, but that doesn't make Linux intuitive. People confuse intuitive with their own skills... and regardless of your computer savvy, intuitive programming is faster (IE less user inputs for typical actions) iOS restrictions have nothing to do with its intuitive either, it's another aspect of the OS


----------



## Rommel

mode3sour said:


> I don't know, isn't Android the OS, so why does the phone matter? He was trying to add a song to a music playlist for days and then gave up LOL.
> 
> I can program easily on Linux, but that doesn't make Linux intuitive. People confuse intuitive with their own skills... and regardless of your computer savvy, intuitive programming is faster (IE less user inputs for typical actions) iOS restrictions have nothing to do with its intuitive either, it's another aspect of the OS


Sure, Android is the OS however the way Android is delivered currently to the masses is that it is just the kernel. The user interface is provided by the phone manufacturers.

This is why it matters.


----------



## Lephturn

Lephturn said:


> Ok great, so long AAPL from $ 376.00 and short GOOG from $ 586.00.
> 
> Let's say 13 shares of AAPL for $ 4,888.00
> Short 8 shares of GOOG for $ 4,688.00
> 
> Say $ 30.00 comission for both transactions. Do you have any more to the trading plan? Limits at which you will get out of one or both? Time limit?
> 
> It will be interesting to track this and see how it plays out. I would encourage you to put this trade in as "play money" on your investing platform and watch it.


Ok GOB here you go:
GOB's Position 
Underlying	Shares	Entry Price	Current Price
GOOG -8 $586.00	$625.65	-$317.2	
AAPL 13 $376.00	$393.01	$221.13	

Current position value:	-$96.07

These two are pretty well correlated at the moment, but it will be interesting to see what happens as we move forward.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoS4gGUsCIUfdFRQUXl6SDdnODFnN2pnaEl1UlYyb2c


----------



## Lephturn

Lephturn said:


> So long GOOG from 585? For say $ 5,850 for 10 shares? I don't know what that means for AAPL... let us know if there are any trades you would do in it. Any upside targets or stop loss for GOOG?


Rommel's position update.

Rommel's Position 
Underlying	Shares	Entry Price	Current Price	Value	Position
GOOG 10 $585.00 $625.65 $406.5	

I hope you bought some... 

Actually I threw this up on a Google (lol) sheet so you can all see it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoS4gGUsCIUfdFRQUXl6SDdnODFnN2pnaEl1UlYyb2c

I'm going to get my options position in there tonight. I am not sure I can pull options prices into it yet, but plain stocks work fine.


----------



## Lephturn

Ok this is where we are:

GOB is -$93.56	-1.29%
Rommel is $405.10	6.92%
Lephturn is $277.00	18.47%

I am up much more on a % basis as mine is a real trade and I did not put as much $ at risk as the other two.

The spreadsheet has the breakdown: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoS4gGUsCIUfdFRQUXl6SDdnODFnN2pnaEl1UlYyb2c

GOB has the most risk on the table, but is tying up only 50% of the price of the investment on the AAPL short. Technically GOB's margin requirement has gone up with AAPL, but for simplicity's sake I've gone with the entry margin for the short.

At this point my put spread is only tying up about $ 1,500 as that is the most I could lose at this point - so that's why I look so good on a % basis.


----------



## humble_pie

lepht i am so not getting your figures.

the way i see it, you did collect 230.00 as a credit when you put your position on. You sld jan 350p & bt jan 335p.

but if one is marking to market (which you do seem to be doing) one must subtract the costs of closing the position, no. You would have to buy the 350s & sell the 335s. Right, lepht ?

one would be lepht with a miserable 52, from which one would have to subtract the 4 commish involved, so one would easily be in or close to the red on a mark-to-market basis.

on the other hand, if you stick out your strategy to the bitter end, my belief is that aapl is not likely to drop below 350 so you will get to collect your entire 230 home free ... but ... you're not there ... yet ...


----------



## Lephturn

So let's start with the two transactions to open the position:

Symbol: AAPL Jan12 350 Put
Description: Apple Inc
Stock:	AAPL at 368.52
Action: Sold To Open
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Price: $14.85
Commission: $7.47
Reg Fees: $0.03
Net Amt: $1,477.50

Symbol: AAPL Jan12 335 Put
Description: Apple Inc
Stock:	AAPL at 368.54
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Price: $10.35
Commission: $7.48
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $1,042.48

So after fees it was a credit of $ 435.02

On a mark to market basis this is where I am:

AAPL Jan12 335 Put	1	$10.35 $2.07	-$828 
AAPL Jan12 350 Put	-1	$14.85 $3.85	$1100 

$272.00	18.13%

Ok - so to close the position it's going to cost me $ 14.95 so I would net out $ 257.05 if I closed it at these prices.

Of course I could just hold it until expiration and not pay the $ 15 but I'll likely close it out before then. If I can close it for $400 I will.


----------



## Rommel

Lephturn said:


> Ok this is where we are:
> 
> GOB is -$93.56	-1.29%
> Rommel is $405.10	6.92%
> Lephturn is $277.00	18.47%
> 
> I am up much more on a % basis as mine is a real trade and I did not put as much $ at risk as the other two.
> 
> The spreadsheet has the breakdown: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoS4gGUsCIUfdFRQUXl6SDdnODFnN2pnaEl1UlYyb2c
> 
> GOB has the most risk on the table, but is tying up only 50% of the price of the investment on the AAPL short. Technically GOB's margin requirement has gone up with AAPL, but for simplicity's sake I've gone with the entry margin for the short.
> 
> At this point my put spread is only tying up about $ 1,500 as that is the most I could lose at this point - so that's why I look so good on a % basis.


Your chart does not reflect me being long on Apple @ $375... That would put me up like 10%


----------



## humble_pie

lepht my bad, so sorry, i was looking at your recent post (below) & misread it that you had sold for 530 & bought for 300, ie a credit of 230.

in actual fact you bettered this by nearly double, to 450.

even supposing that the numbers had indeed been a credit of 230, the investor who held this position would have, to date, a visibly successful bear spread. At 450 it's fabulous.

_" My AAPL put spread position update:
APPLE INC 389.70
AAPL Jan12 335 Put $10.35 $3.00 -0.72 $300.00 -735.00 
AAPL Jan12 350 Put $14.85 $5.30 -0.95 ($530.00) 955.00 
Total: ($230.00) 220.00 "_


----------



## Lephturn

Rommel said:


> Your chart does not reflect me being long on Apple @ $375... That would put me up like 10%


Fixed! Better than that. 

Canadian Money Forum Position Tracker

I have you at a combined 15% between the two positions with your GOOG trade being the best of the lot. You are leading in $ but I am still ahead in %. Good day today for both of us. Well bad for me - I want AAPL to drop back down before earnings but it is flying today. Oh well up days = lower volatility so if it hangs here I should still be able to put on a nice trade.


----------



## GOB

GOB said:


> Noted. I am done here until AAPL breaks its all-time highs.


I'm back. Any AAPL bears having second thoughts? Can't wait for earnings to see the effect of big, bad, free Android on AAPL profits.


----------



## Lephturn

GOB said:


> I'm back. Any AAPL bears having second thoughts? Can't wait for earnings to see the effect of big, bad, free Android on AAPL profits.


Who makes the most money on Android?

Would you believe Microsoft? Yes - they have patents they have licensed - estimates are that they are collecting between $5 and $10 per Android handset. By doing nothing. Nice profit margin on that.

I was planning to position long expecting a run-up in AAPL pre earnings but I waited a few days too long for it and it took off without me.


----------



## GOB

Lephturn said:


> Who makes the most money on Android?
> 
> Would you believe Microsoft? Yes - they have patents they have licensed - estimates are that they are collecting between $5 and $10 per Android handset. By doing nothing. Nice profit margin on that.
> 
> I was planning to position long expecting a run-up in AAPL pre earnings but I waited a few days too long for it and it took off without me.


Yep, Microsoft and soon to be Oracle, Apple and probably others. Not a huge threat to AAPL especially looking at the tablet market.


----------



## GOB

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=30686

Recent sales of iPhones (3 models) vs. Android phones (100s of models) are practically identical. I won't even start on the relative profits made on each phone sale. 

Android will probably pull away in market share slowly again until the release of the iPhone 5 when sales records will once again be broken. Clearly Apple has nothing to worry about as Android sales are merely placeholders for future iPhone sales. People buy Android in the absence of a new iPhone model. Even that is being challenged now with the pricing of the iPhone 3G. Top three smartphones by sales are the iPhone 4S, iPhone 4 and iPhone 3G. Anybody notice a trend? An iPhone model that is over two years old sells better than any other non-iPhone smartphone. How's that for dominance? 

This is just about iPhones. The imminent iPad 3 (and Apple plans for education with iPad) and th likely entry into television just adds fuel to the fire. Apple remains undervalued by any metric available and will be more so after earnings next week. Anyone bearish on Apple needs to get their head examined and actually look at the real numbers that matter instead of only market share and anecdotes.


----------



## ddkay

Getting long some AAPL this morning, we have broken the October highs so this should head north of $450 by earnings next week and I'll be able to buy an iPad 3 with the profit


----------



## GOB

With today's announcement, Apple has basically ensured domination of the tablet market for decades to come while turning another market on its head. Because of Apple's excellent integration between their various offerings, this will also add to the "halo" effect resulting in increased sales in all other Apple products. Absolutely brilliant strategy - this along with being the leader in innovation makes it a near impossible feat to take them down.


----------



## andrewf

Decades, eh? Tablets probably won't exist in 10 - 15 years.


----------



## GOB

Why not? Desktops, laptops, phones have all been around for decades. Why would some iteration of a tablet not exist? 

What's the basis for your statement? Is it just an attempt at a witty retort to gloss over the fact that I have been right on almost everything I've stated in this thread?


----------



## Jungle

Apparently Apple hit a $400B market cap and was worth more than Greece today:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/19/technology/apple_market_cap/?iid=HP_LN&hpt=hp_t3

lol


----------



## andrewf

Greece is worth trillions. You should not confound GDP with the 'value' of a country. A readier comparison would be GDP of a country to the revenues of a company.

GOB: if/when cloud-based services become mature, the tablet is just going to be a dumb-terminal giving access to the cloud. They will be commodity items costing maybe $100. Look at what happened to notebooks. 15 years ago they cost $1500+ for a starter model. Starter model today (also has 10x power, 5x battery life, 1/4 the weight, etc.) is $200. That squishing sound you hear is margin compression.


----------



## ddkay

That depends on copyright laws now doesn't it. With the Mega conspiracy DoJ are saying any cloud service (iCloud, dropbox, S3, Megaupload) that uses MD5 checksums to fingerprint files and avoid duplicate content should not only take down links to comply with DMCA, but delete the data that link was accessing on their servers as well.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/78786408/Mega-Indictment

So if I upload a copy of my own legitimately purchased music onto iCloud, and don't share the link with anyone, but someone else does the same thing for the same music and posts a link on a thousand forums, if Apple doesn't delete the public access link as well as the copy they store on their servers which I also access, they can be indicted, arrested and shut down. 

Good bye Apple, Google, internet etc.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Greece is worth trillions. You should not confound GDP with the 'value' of a country. A readier comparison would be GDP of a country to the revenues of a company.
> 
> GOB: if/when cloud-based services become mature, the tablet is just going to be a dumb-terminal giving access to the cloud. They will be commodity items costing maybe $100. Look at what happened to notebooks. 15 years ago they cost $1500+ for a starter model. Starter model today (also has 10x power, 5x battery life, 1/4 the weight, etc.) is $200. That squishing sound you hear is margin compression.


Apple is the best candidate for easy to use, integrated cloud solutions. The iPad is at the forefront of that transition and will exist for a while yet. 

$200 tablets? Not from Apple. If you want to cite industry trends, how about Apple's ability to grow profits while maintaining (and sometimes even increasing) margins, in spite of all its competitors suffering from margin compression in a race to the bottom? Your problem is assuming Apple conducts business like any other company, which is patently false. Even when things were not so rosy at Apple they did things differently. To cite industry trends like margin compression and obsolescence via technology replacement/innovation (which Apple usually creates by the way, and has since the beginning) as reasons for the inevitable demise for Apple is just plain silly. How many years do we need to hear that Apple's margins are going to drop like a rock before we start to question the reasons for this false assumption?

By the way, you cannot determine margins simply from ASP of the devices. You should really know better. Apple has been dropping prices while improving thier margin. How? Obviously technology components are becoming much cheaper while improving in power. Since Apple is not in the manufacturing business, I'm not worried about this at all - if anything this helps Apple because they can offer cheaper products without hitting their margins. You seem to know enough to be dangerous but if you are aware of the whole picture you'll realize Apple is in no imminent danger of a large margin hit. 

Look at Amazon and Google for dropping margins, and look how they conduct business vs Apple. Not all companies are the same or suffer the same fate.

I'm not saying Apple will succeed forever. However, the end is nowhere in sight and to refrain from investing bec ause they will eventually stop growing when there are zero signs of it happening in the next 10+ years is lunacy.


----------



## somecanuck

"Cloud" services won't result in dumb terminals. Phones, laptops, and tablets continue to use faster processors, not slower. A dumb terminal is one that receives a text interface, spits it to the screen, and sends back keypress (i.e. mainframe terminals). More and more the trend is to use a common interface (HTTP and web browsers), leverage the client device for processing power, and store the results online. It's the best of both worlds.


----------



## andrewf

Of course, at Apple's current growth rate (~30%), it will be worth more than 1 year of US GDP in 15 years. No reason to suspect that exponential functions flatten out eventually at all. Nosirree.

I didn't claim that tablets becoming commodity items meant that Apple would meet its demise. I just would not be surprised if tablets became a minor part of its business in that time, like iPods. You should hope so too, as a shareholder. 

And Apple's recent success is no evidence at all of an enduring competitive advantage. Making predictions about what position any tech company will be in in 10 or 20 years seems foolish to me.


----------



## andrewf

somecanuck said:


> "Cloud" services won't result in dumb terminals. Phones, laptops, and tablets continue to use faster processors, not slower. A dumb terminal is one that receives a text interface, spits it to the screen, and sends back keypress (i.e. mainframe terminals). More and more the trend is to use a common interface (HTTP and web browsers), leverage the client device for processing power, and store the results online. It's the best of both worlds.


I was taking liberties with the term. The spec race will slow down. Slapping 64 cores in a tablet will produce little appreciable benefit over 32, especially given anything really intensive happens on a server to conserve local battery life. Wireless connections will also offer much higher bandwidth, obviating the need for much local processing.


----------



## kcowan

I think the payoff in the iCloud will be the elimination of duplication. If I have properly licensed material and so do you, they only need to store one copy for both of us. For songs this may be moot, but for movies, after watching it, I want it accessible but will not access it frequently. Same with books. So when I buy it from Apple, I only pay for the IP and the bandwidth, not the long-term storage. This will make selling them more profitable just like iTunes was for the iPod. If it works, Apple wll become a major entertainment company. iPads will just become display devices. But others will be able to sign up for iCloud with their own technology. Android, Window Mobile, et al.

The biggest threat is that Sony and Amazon will recognize the threat to their core businesses and do something to stop them.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Of course, at Apple's current growth rate (~30%), it will be worth more than 1 year of US GDP in 15 years. No reason to suspect that exponential functions flatten out eventually at all. Nosirree.
> 
> I didn't claim that tablets becoming commodity items meant that Apple would meet its demise. I just would not be surprised if tablets became a minor part of its business in that time, like iPods. You should hope so too, as a shareholder.
> 
> And Apple's recent success is no evidence at all of an enduring competitive advantage. Making predictions about what position any tech company will be in in 10 or 20 years seems foolish to me.


Of course growth will not happen forever, but I'm more than happy to profit off it while it's clearly there. Why can't you understand this? Why do I bother investing in a good education, when I know someday I'll retire and not work? Why invest in an oil company when we know that one day we won't be using it (it will be either be gone or we'll be using something else)? Why live a good life if I'm going to die one day? What you say is technically correct but it has no relevance. 

If you think it's foolish of me to predict that Apple will grow for the foreseeable future (as I have done for the past several years) then let's just agree to disagree. I don't even know why you are in this part of the forum if you feel it is impossible to forecast the performance of an individual company. I can quite safely say that Apple will outperform any of the market indices in the next 10-20 years. 

I don't understand your philosophy. Do you even invest? How can you put faith in an entire economy that is so flawed but refuse to believe one can accurately predict a single company's growth over the next few years? You're also aware that I can sell my shares with a click of a button, right? I could be wrong - Apple may grow for five years and then start to tank, but I'll still have made money from it because the signs will be there to get out. So what exactly are you arguing against? My arguments point to the fact that Apple is currently an excellent investment - what are you arguin about?



andrewf said:


> I was taking liberties with the term. The spec race will slow down. Slapping 64 cores in a tablet will produce little appreciable benefit over 32, especially given anything really intensive happens on a server to conserve local battery life. Wireless connections will also offer much higher bandwidth, obviating the need for much local processing.


This part I agree with, the spec race will eventually slow down. If you knew about the industry though you would realize that this benefits Apple more than any other company. Apple's USP is their software and vertical integration - it's the Android and PC crowd that always talk about the latest and greatest specs without realizing there is much more to the final product and user experience than a super fast processor.

Instead of this ridiculous back and forth, can you please sum up in one or two sentences what your argument is against that fact that Apple is an exceptional buy RIGHT NOW?


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Instead of this ridiculous back and forth, can you please sum up in one or two sentences what your argument is against that fact that Apple is an exceptional buy RIGHT NOW?


Apple is cool, they need to stay cool. It's really hard to stay cool as the market leader.
- A few more suicides at manufacturers or widespread quality problems can really kill the publics appetite. I'm not sure they can avoid a second antenae fiasco.
-Suing every competitor isn't cool, it's being a bully.

Suing a key supplier (Samsung) is dumb.

Apple must not annoy developers/content providers.
Their developer experience is good, which is where RIM royally screwed up.
Android (and others) have much lower royalty rates which makes their platform financially superior, if the paying marketshare exists.

I think Apple is still a buy (maybe a strong buy), but not exceptional buy.


----------



## KaeJS

MrMatt said:


> I think Apple is still a buy (maybe a strong buy), but not exceptional buy.


AAPL is a hold/sell.

If they don't satisfy earnings on Tuesday, I'm selling my position as this would indicate to me that the huge growth is dwindling.


----------



## PMREdmonton

KaeJS said:


> AAPL is a hold/sell.
> 
> If they don't satisfy earnings on Tuesday, I'm selling my position as this would indicate to me that the huge growth is dwindling.


Why sell?

They are basically selling at a PE of 14.

When you look at enterprise value and back out the cash of about $80 per share the EV/earnings is about 12.

Maybe we even get a dividend this year.

Having said that Apple will come back down to earth at some point as all tech hardware companies have over time. I don't know how long Apple's run will last but all these spaces eventually become commodified over time and it is the software side that ends up generating high margins and this is where they will have to compete with Google and Microsoft.


----------



## KaeJS

PMREdmonton said:


> Why sell?
> 
> Having said that Apple will come back down to earth at some point as all tech hardware companies have over time.


This is exactly what I'm trying to avoid.


----------



## GOB

MrMatt said:


> Apple is cool, they need to stay cool. It's really hard to stay cool as the market leader.
> - A few more suicides at manufacturers or widespread quality problems can really kill the publics appetite. I'm not sure they can avoid a second antenae fiasco.
> -Suing every competitor isn't cool, it's being a bully.
> 
> Suing a key supplier (Samsung) is dumb.
> 
> Apple must not annoy developers/content providers.
> Their developer experience is good, which is where RIM royally screwed up.
> Android (and others) have much lower royalty rates which makes their platform financially superior, if the paying marketshare exists.
> 
> I think Apple is still a buy (maybe a strong buy), but not exceptional buy.


-Apple has been "cool" since it was created, even when performance wasn't good. 
-Jobs working for Apple suppliers in China are better than alternatives available for those workers. Also, it's unfair to expect Apple to manage other companies. It really isn't their responsibilty but they are doing what they can. By the way, any other tech company does the exact same thing, and has less stringent methods in place to control workin conditions. 
-Antennagate was purely PR and every phone has a spot where you can't hold it. The fact that the iPhone 4 was the best selling smartphone in history (befor the 4S) shows how insignifican the issue really was. 
-So Apple shouldn't sue, and let everyone steal their IP and ride on their coattails? Please...as if you would let that pass if you were losing profit due to IP theft. Granted, some of the cases are stupid (as are the ones against Apple) but unfortunately the system is such that you go after everything you can and hope to win a few. Yeah, Apple is a big bad bully for going after companies that steal from them. And if you believe they haven't stolen for Apple, I invite you to do some research and look into the history of Android, pre- and post-iPhone.


----------



## andrewf

'Cool' is about exclusivity. When Apple products were uncommon/unpopular, that supported the 'cool' factor. When your granny is carrying around an iPad, it loses a little of the 'cool' lustre. It doesn't make it a bad device. 'Coolness' is a relative phenomenon. If everyone has the same thing, it isn't cool. It's just a thing. The hipsters move on to something more exclusive...

- The reality of sweatshops doesn't matter. Foxconn is a 2010 equivalent of the Nike sweatshops that caused huge problems for that brand back in the '90s. Those sweatshops usually paid better than the local average, had better working conditions, etc. This is irrelevant. The media seizes on the fact that the working conditions are appalling by our comfortable western standards. People don't like to spend money on luxuries knowing that it is the product of appalling working conditions, even if those workers are happy to have the job. Again, it kills the 'cool' factor.

-Apple is starting to act like Microsoft in its litigation strategy. Also not 'cool'.

GOB, I'm not making an argument about speculating on Apple stock. I don't doubt that the stock could double... I'm not investing in individual names going forward, so this is just academic to me. I'm more interested in Apple the company than Apple the stock. You made an absurd assertion about some doo-dad ensuring that Apple dominated tablets for decades. I'm sure someone said something similar about Sony and Walkmans in 1990. Looking back, it was a ridiculous thing to say. Get it?


----------



## GOB

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I was merely replying to a post - in no way is "coolness" responsible for Apple's success. Apple is on top because top quality products that are dead easy to use and allow anybody to do great things with them. Sure they look nice and that helps too. But I would argue Google is already considered "cooler" than Apple (people like free stuff, not realizing they are the product being sold). Apple is at the stage where people want their products because they are the best - people try an iPad and they want one. As I said before, Apple has been cool even when unsuccessful - Apple's fate does not huge on how cool their products are or how cool the company is perceived to be. 


As for your Walkman analogy I think it's you who just doesn't get it. The Walkman had nothing inherent about it to ensure customer retention - are you seriously implying Apple is the same way? Apple is the most integrated tech company in existence - all their product lines, both hardware and software, are meant to work together and enhance the experience. Do you think someone who's bought 1000 songs on iTunes is going to stop using Apple because they're "not cool", even if they still have incredible products and lead the tech industry in innovation? I would compare Apple's staying power to Microsoft Windows and Office - even when there are eventually better alternatives, it will be so ingrained that their products will remain dominant for a long time to come. Nothing is for sure but I think I make a stronger case than you. Comparing all of Apple's offering to the Walkman is completely ludicrous.


----------



## Calgary_Girl

Looks like Apple is still cool .


----------



## Toronto.gal

Of course it is!


----------



## Calgary_Girl

Wow, 37 million iPhones sold in the last quarter; 11 million iPads. 

I hate to say it but if you DON'T have an Apple product, you're not cool .


----------



## GOB

Stay out guys, because they aren't going to grow forever....

Android who?


$17.5 billion FCF added in 14 weeks. Absolutely mind blowing. 

Andrew, gross margins are up 6.2% YOY. How come? Could it be that not all companies can be lumped together, even if they're in the same industry? That's kind of the point of having an "individual stocks" section here, isn't it?


----------



## Jungle

The eps numbers was $3+ above expectations..


----------



## Toronto.gal

Calgary_Girl said:


> I hate to say it but if you DON'T have an Apple product, you're not cool .


Do you have AAPL stock? If so, then you're cool.


----------



## Calgary_Girl

Toronto.gal said:


> Do you have AAPL stock? If so, then you're cool.


YUP (and thanks for the compliment)!


----------



## stephenheath

Calgary_Girl said:


> Wow, 37 million iPhones sold in the last quarter; 11 million iPads.
> 
> I hate to say it but if you DON'T have an Apple product, you're not cool .


Except those of us without any apple products at all now seem to be in the minority, so we're the cool rebels and you guys are the mainstream now


----------



## ddkay

ddkay said:


> Getting long some AAPL this morning, we have broken the October highs so this should head north of $450 by earnings next week and I'll be able to buy an iPad 3 with the profit


Time stamped! Resumed trading at $468.95. I'll be selling 3/4 at the open tomorrow.


----------



## Rommel

Lepthurn.

I'd like to sell my Apple at the open of tomorrow morning's trading (regular trading hours).

As for Google, I am still Long.


----------



## andrewf

GOB, don't get all worked up. You're getting very emotional about this discussion. 

Your argument boils down to: this time is different. I get suspicious whenever I hear that. It may take a while, but Apple can't have higher returns than the market forever. I'm just reminding you that 10 years is a long time in tech, and it is hubristic to make these overconfident assertions about Apple's dominance in the long term.


----------



## KaeJS

AAPL's aftermarket gains just made up for all of my lost money in the market today.


----------



## donald

I'm glad ive hung on i bought 25 shares @387 the day before jobs died lol and i watched with pain(clearly remember)that night in after hours the stock declining nearly 20% and thought oh **** i f(d) up...question is what to do,im thinking the prudent play here is to take all the profit off the table and hold to my orignal book value $...i still like this stock how can't you.iIt like pissing in the wind if you don't no?


----------



## KaeJS

donald said:


> the prudent play here is to take all the profit off the table and hold to my orignal book value $...i still like this stock how can't you.iIt like pissing in the wind if you don't no?


Exactly.

I'm thinking the same thing (as I'm sure a lot of others are, too)


----------



## avrex

KaeJS said:


> AAPL's aftermarket gains just made up for all of my lost money in the market today.


KaeJS, We win!!! Aren't you glad you held on?


----------



## somecanuck

I have a very, very, very small stake in Apple, but I think I'll hang on for now. I think the iPad 3 and the textbooks coming up this year will keep the profit going for a while yet.

For what it's worth (nothing), I've only ever owned an iPod Nano 1st gen. I'd love to own a Macbook Air, but it's way overpriced. I have an Android phone. I would never buy an iPhone, but I'd recommend them to others who want a phone that just works. To me, an iPhone has less potential but comes with more features out of the box, and that's better for most folks.

I have a co-worker who loves all things Apple, and I always encourage him to buy each and every new device just to help out with days like today..


----------



## avrex

I do *not own* any Apple products. Therefore, I am not cool.

I do *own* 1 Apple March Call. Therefore, I don't care if I'm cool.


----------



## KaeJS

avrex said:


> KaeJS, We win!!! Aren't you glad you held on?


Damn right.


----------



## doctrine

All of the big tech stocks look good. MSFT, Intel, Apple, Cisco, Google. Apple arguably the best of the bunch, with a P/E in the low teens and 25-30% growth.

Never owned a mac but have an iphone and ipad and will buy both again in a few years when the new models come out. Like the products, like the P/E, like the growth, hard to go wrong here, even with the after market jump. 

Soon or later they will start paying dividends or buying back huge chunks of stock so 10-20% gains/yr are not at all impossible.


----------



## gibor365

avrex said:


> KaeJS, We win!!! Aren't you glad you held on?


Now I'm sorry I sold APPL at 370's and 290's (bought 330 and 345).... but well it's good for market and I still hold AAPL indirectly through VTI, ZQQ and TD Nasdaq e-series


----------



## PMREdmonton

Rommel said:


> Lepthurn.
> 
> I'd like to sell my Apple at the open of tomorrow morning's trading (regular trading hours).
> 
> As for Google, I am still Long.


Why, Apple will likely float up to about 500 now and there will be a selling opportunity while it "consolidates". It'll probably then float back to around 450 and this will be another buying opportunity there before it goes up 520 or so by the end of the year.

You have to remember that in the long run the stock price will rise to match earnings. Apple has been seeing P/E multiple contraction for awhile due to the limitation of "big numbers" despite its growth.

Apple will soon need to become a value stock and start offering a dividend. They should also do a 10:1 stock split for investors' sake and this will make it easier to play options. I see these things as possibilities now that Jobs is gone. At the very least they should start to do some stock buybacks with the cash hoard as it is generating very little income at today's interest rates and they are not using the money for acquisitions.


----------



## blin10

GOB said:


> Stay out guys, because they aren't going to grow forever....
> 
> *Android who?*
> 
> 
> $17.5 billion FCF added in 14 weeks. Absolutely mind blowing.
> 
> Andrew, gross margins are up 6.2% YOY. How come? Could it be that not all companies can be lumped together, even if they're in the same industry? That's kind of the point of having an "individual stocks" section here, isn't it?


android still has a bigger market share even if it's by a little... i switched from iphone 4 to galaxy s2 lte and couldn't be happier, nomore stupid itunes, bigger screen, put in 32gb sd card, better phone overall etc....


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> GOB, don't get all worked up. You're getting very emotional about this discussion.
> 
> Your argument boils down to: this time is different. I get suspicious whenever I hear that. It may take a while, but Apple can't have higher returns than the market forever. I'm just reminding you that 10 years is a long time in tech, and it is hubristic to make these overconfident assertions about Apple's dominance in the long term.


Andrew, forgive me for being pleased that my calls are coming through. It's really no surprise for anyone following the company and their products though. 

Calling me emotional is a bit hypocritical, don't you think? Why don't you take a look at your very first posts in this thread (I encourage everyone else to do so as well to give a more clear picture)?



andrewf said:


> There's very few companies that I boycott. Apple is one of them. Though I have never really been tempted by one of their devices. For some reason, everything about that company seems to make me seethe with annoyance. Maybe it's the marketing?


Me emotional?



andrewf said:


> They need to keep pumping out blockbusters to maintain their earnings... hence multiple compression. Android is going to put some serious pressure on iOS device sales. *Will people pay twice as much for half the device just for half-eaten fruit logo? Some will, but enough to justify a $300 billion market cap?*


It sure sounds like you have a good grasp on Apple, seeing as you seem to think their selling point is a half eaten fruit logo. By the way, market cap is now over $420 billion, so I think the answer to your question is a resounding "yes". OR maybe it isn't the logo that attracts them.



andrewf said:


> iPad/iPad 2 are genuinely nice devices. Apple created the market and has first mover advantage. *Already though, other makers are putting out devices with superior specs around the same price point. In two years it'll be a massacre.*


Let me give you some advice since you seem to love to do it. It is hubristic to make these overconfident assertions about Apple's failures in the short and long term. You are already completely wrong about the impending doom of the iPad. I think it's far more likely the iPad will be the top tablet in ten years than it being "massacred" in the next year and a half. Apple is again the top smartphone seller in the world, the only competition being Samsung and everyone else miles away. 

Your bias against Apple is just as evident as mine is for Apple. The only difference is that I back up my stance with facts and you back it up with pure conjecture and examples of other companies. Like it or not, Apple is different and always has been. Their performance is unprecedented. I've been right and you've been wrong, and the reason for that is you do not understand the company. How could you, when you think that all Apple's success hinges on a nice design and a cool logo? 

You keep brining out the fact that Apple cannot grow forever. I've already acknowledged that, and pointed out that it has nothing to do with Apple being a strong buy right now. 

I really don't mind opposing viewpoints, but it's only valuable when valid points are made on both sides. Your condescending and know-it-all tone is really unjustified considering your track record on this company's performance. In the end, result speak for themselves.


----------



## GOB

Biases aside, facts supporting going long AAPL (maybe on a dip):
- #1 smartphone seller in the world (128% YOY iPhone growth), approved in almost all Fortune 500 companies and many other enterprises
- iPhone 4S, iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS are the top 3 selling smartphones in the USA
- #1 tablet seller in the world (111% YOY iPad growth)
- both smartphone and tablet markets have lots of room to grow (especially internationally)
- 25% YOY Mac growth
- Mac growth has outperformed PC growth for 20 consecutive quarters yet market share remains in single digits worldwide, indicating huge room for growth
- Halo effect between all three of these major product lines
- Customer satisfaction for Apple products are industry leading
- iPad 3, iPhone 5 will in all likelihood be released this year, in even larger quantities and to even more markets than before (almost guaranteeing more sales records)
- iTunes, App Store, and now iBook revenue continue to grow, ensuring a high degree of customer retention
- Current gross margins are 44% (16% YOY growth). This indicates plenty of room for pricing flexibility to maintain dominance if the need arises (it is not there yet)
- BRIC nations will be a huge source of growth well into the future
- $100 billion + in cash, future dividend is likely imminent, provides an extremely strong safety net
- The "next big thing" (TV, home entertainment system, automobile integration, ???)
- Given the growth numbers, the stock is still incredibly undervalued


----------



## ddkay

During last quarter Apple had delayed their iPhone launch and practically everyone that wanted a new iPhone was waiting in anticipation of the next release months or weeks away. Even if they didn't release an iPhone 5, there was pent up demand for iPhones, especially with the holiday season, Apple were able to cannibalize a sizeable amount of disposable income, so they blew the doors off estimates. Stock chart told the same story.


----------



## ddkay

I think I might buy a Macbook air instead of an iPad 3 for when I leave this spring, my 1 year old thinkpad is showing signs of wear.


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> It's really no surprise for anyone following the company and their products though. In the end, result speak for themselves.


You're right, it is no surprise at all and a no brainer to have bought this stock. The more difficult question/decision [as is with any stock], will be when to sell. 

But GOB, you don't have to keep defending AAPL, you know your stock & that is all that should matter to you; write about it, but no need to prove anything to anyone on this forum. You will find contrarians everywhere, why argue?. By the way, there is an ignore function if you wish to use it!


----------



## Jungle

Congrats to those long Apple, everyone is freaking out again over the latest gorilla numbers. They are poised to pay a dividend soon or buy shares back with that 100 billion cash. I can't even comprehend what it would be like to have 10 million. Let along 100 billion in cash.


----------



## kcowan

GOB said:


> You keep brining out the fact that Apple cannot grow forever. I've already acknowledged that, and pointed out that it has nothing to do with Apple being a strong buy right now...


I have 3 friends who have bought iPads even though they all had PC laptops that were perfectly good. They bought htem because they are light and compact. One has the wireless keyboard and will eventually shift all her work onto it. One has a Sony reader and will use the iPad for reading ebooks. This is all new market, not replacement. It is a phenomenon. Many crackberry users have also bought iPhones due to BB shortcomings.

These buyers do not evaluate alternatives in either category. So Android and Windows device were not a consideration.

(I am long AAPL and have held them since 2001, selling half the holdings at $75 due to % of portfolio conditions.)


----------



## GOB

Toronto.gal said:


> You're right, it is no surprise at all and a no brainer to have bought this stock. The more difficult question/decision [as is with any stock], will be when to sell.
> 
> But GOB, you don't have to keep defending AAPL, you know your stock & that is all that should matter to you; write about it, but no need to prove anything to anyone on this forum. You will find contrarians everywhere, why argue?. By the way, there is an ignore function if you wish to use it!


Thanks for the comment. You are right in the sense that I have nothing to gain by discussing AAPL but this is a forum for helping each other and sharing ideas. If my arguments have helped anyone solidify their decision to purchase this stock I feel all my pain and suffering would be worth it. While it may be somewhat abrasive, calling out people who talk down the stock due to their own personal biases does strengthen my argument (and weakens theirs). 

I love reading about the pros and cons about a particular stock I'm interested in. Usually I pay more attention to the stronger argument and with further research that may lead to an investment. I hope I provide a strong argument in regards to AAPL. Despite it being a no-brainer there are clearly still plenty of doubters. I'm trying to help them see the light.


----------



## Jungle

As I drool on, I remember that we (and probably most of us) own apple through our index, pension or mutual funds. 

It's been in the top ten holding of most us funds, due to its elephant sized market cap.


----------



## cannadian

Jungle said:


> Congrats to those long Apple, everyone is freaking out again over the latest gorilla numbers. They are poised to pay a dividend soon or buy shares back with that 100 billion cash. I can't even comprehend what it would be like to have 10 million. Let along 100 billion in cash.


They could buy a small country for their shareholders 



Jungle said:


> As I drool on, I remember that we (and probably most of us) own apple through our index, pension or mutual funds.
> 
> It's been in the top ten holding of most us funds, due to its elephant sized market cap.


Haha this makes me a feel a bit better about not owning apple directly  When it was around $370 I REALLY wanted to pull the trigger but I just didn't have any funds


----------



## kcowan

cannadian said:


> When it was around $370 I REALLY wanted to pull the trigger but I just didn't have any funds


Why did you not buy options?


----------



## GOB

Apple is now ahead of Android in terms of US market share (which is all Android had going for it). I suspect the situation in Canada is similar - I see far more iPhones out in the wild than other smartphones.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/apple-google-microsoft-idUSL5E8CO4QP20120125

This confirms what many have been thinking - the only reason Android took off is because of iPhone's lack of availability on all carriers. I admit this was a mistake on Apple's part but it was a tough situation because they don't have the capacity to build so much, and they needed to offer AT&T exclusivity to get the terms they needed. It was a mistake to hold off on Verizon for so long though.

The iPhone is what most people want - due to being on different carriers or locked into existing contracts they went for Android as the next best thing. Now that all three major carriers support the iPhone and there's a refreshed model we can see the true demand for both products. Note that Apple would have sold even more if they could have made enough phones, while Android OEMs have plenty of supply available. 

Bottom line - Apple is essentially in control of their market share, and by extension Android's as well, at least for the time being. They have not been too worried about it, choosing to focus on profits instead (a wise strategy). However, to prevent Android from running away with too much share, their recent strategy of tiered pricing for three different generations of the iPhone has played out perfectly. How important of a statistic is market share if it can do a complete 180 in a mere three months? This is why I get annoyed when that's all people talk about, as if profits don't matter.

This is all before the iPhone 5, which is by all accounts less than a year away.

I think growth will remain strong for the following reasons:

- People using other smartphones will switch to iPhone as their contracts roll over and expire (at a far greater rate than people switching away from iPhones, as is currently the case)
- Apple continues to expand their production capabilities which is key as the limiting factor has always been supply
- Apple is selling phones through China Unicom (2nd largest carrier) and has approval for a phone compatible with China Telecom (3rd largest carrier). #1 China Mobile remains up for grabs. The iPhone 4S has just begun shipping in China - tons of room
- 42% of revenue is still from the US (~300 million people). This split will eventually favour international more and more (6+ billion people with increasing standards of living)
- Smartphone penetration is about 10% globally. Yes, only 10%. See this excellent article: http://www.asymco.com/2011/12/13/global-smartphone-penetration-below-10/

The only argument against Apple is that it's too big to grow. While this will eventually be true, the above shows this is clearly not the case for quite some time yet. There are literally billions of people waiting to get their hands on an Apple product, and more and more of them are becoming able to do so. Apple continues to grow like a startup, and there are clear reasons why. I don't expect 100% growth anymore, but in my view there is no safer stock in existence that provides steady double digit returns.


----------



## jcgd

You know, the too big to grow argument might undergo a shift over the next quarter century as the majority of the world becomes developed. As this happens a company's market won't be limited to it's native region. If the US companies haven't been diversifying to serving other countries to such a large degree over the last few decades there wouldn't be much growth for existing companies. I think the potential size of any given company will reach sizes that are very uncommon today and we start to have the market of another few billion people.

Not to say Apple can last 50 years to where they sell 5 billion iPhones a year instead of 100 million, but I think we will be getting some companies that will ride the wave of middle class citizens and get to massive scales that were aren't used to. I think we might see companies of a trillion+ somewhat commonly.

Just my $.02 on why Apple might keep groovin' along for a while.


----------



## Causalien

I am of the opposite opinion. The next disruptive technology. i.e. augmented reality glasses are already out. I don't see any apple patent in that sector. Yet it is the next logical evolution of the personal portable data crunching thingy.

Maybe buy designer eyewear labels next.


----------



## jcgd

Causalien, I completely agree with your opinion as well. I have no sweet clue what's going to happen with Apple specifically in the future, I'm just saying I could see it going either way. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple does very well into the future and I wouldn't be surprised if they get completely side-swiped or crash and burn either.


----------



## ddkay

That is next level cool technology. I wonder how much prescription AR glasses would cost, I'm already half blind.


----------



## GOB

Causalien said:


> I am of the opposite opinion. The next disruptive technology. i.e. augmented reality glasses are already out. I don't see any apple patent in that sector. Yet it is the next logical evolution of the personal portable data crunching thingy.
> 
> Maybe buy designer eyewear labels next.


Maybe you're right. I don't know much about the technology but from what I can gather it basically serves as an display for your mobile device, and not meant as a standalone replacement for computers/smartphones/tablets. It seems like more of an accessory to these devices. I may be off here but I don't see how a pair of glasses can replace a smartphone. Are you going to have to put them on every time you need to check the weather or see a text, or will people be wearing glasses all the time? This kind of tech seems quite far into the future in terms of providing real utility that a smartphone can provide today. I can see it being interesting in certain gaming applications and the like, but that will be niche. It reminds me of the 3DTV craze that companies are trying to get us to accept, but we don't want to be wearing a pair of goofy glasses on a regular basis just to watch something. It will have to offer something completely mindblowing (and USEFUL) to get people to adopt this on a mass scale.

If they are going to eventually replace these devices, there is a TON of work that will need to be done. What is the interface to control it going to be, and how much work will need to go to making is as fluid as existing touch interfaces today? What about battery life? Decades of research has been done, and people are still complaining about poor battery life in all mobile devices. How is a strong enough battery going to fit in a pair of glasses?

I do not think this in any way affects Apple's near to medium term future growth prospects.


----------



## ddkay

Google has a prototype of AR glasses that supposedly look like regular thick rimmed glasses people wear. The New York Times wrote about them last month: http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/18/wearing-your-computer-on-your-sleeve/

There's actually a big wig prof from my school that is famous for wearable computing and general eccentricity - Steve Mann.


----------



## GOB

ddkay said:


> Google has a prototype of AR glasses that supposedly look like regular thick rimmed glasses people wear. The New York Times wrote about them last month: http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/18/wearing-your-computer-on-your-sleeve/
> 
> There's actually a big wig prof from my school that is famous for wearable computing and general eccentricity - Steve Mann.


Thanks. A very interesting article and it supports my suspicion that these devices will still need to communicate with the existing mobile devices of today. Note that Apple also seems involved in this - I highly doubt they will completely miss the next revolutionary step in the technological landscape. History shows that although they may not be the very first to put something out, they are usually the first do it the right way which leads to acceptance of the technology.


----------



## ddkay

Yeah I don't think Apple can be very far behind the curve on this, its more likely RIMM will miss it but even Mr. Heins sees that the future is in mobile computing. I would definitely run out and buy a pair of AR glasses if they look normal and wouldn't weaken my already weak vision.


----------



## Lephturn

Let's open this sucker back up after AAPL's monster quarter and review.

Trade spreadsheet

Thanks to GOB for pointing out an error - since fixed. 

AAPL's results in a nutshell - 1 MSFT + 2 GOOG + 3 YHOO

After the move they have a 12.9 PE. Talk about a blowout quarter.

Anybody out yet?


----------



## GOB

Not a chance. Through the inevitable ups and downs of the markets, Apple's growth numbers remain clear, as does its current valuation. I'm holding for a while to come.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Ditto!


----------



## somecanuck

I have a meager 7.25 shares that were purchased at $369, yeeeeeeeehaw.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Pity.


----------



## KaeJS

Good thing I sold too early!


----------



## avrex

Lephturn said:


> Let's open this sucker back up after AAPL's monster quarter and review.
> 
> Trade spreadsheet


Hi Leph,
You can add my current position,
1 - AAPL Mar 12 400 Call
purchased on 2012-01-17 @35.80

I am holding my profitable position  for now.


----------



## kcowan

*Apple a leader in brand loyalty*










Top corporations in Brand Loyalty

Apple seems to be winning on all counts! (300 shares and holding!)


----------



## jcgd

I'd like to see Lulu on that chart.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Many are missing from such a list, like KO/GOOG, or am I blind?


----------



## buhhy

Also, where's Microsoft?

LOL actually... why did I ask?


----------



## indexxx

Think I'd be nuts to sink a big chunk into AAPL at this point? I have some already... but every analysis is pointing to continued large gains; prediction targets are $550-650/share


----------



## jcgd

I'd put down some change on Apple. I think that even if there turns out to be little more upside (who knows...) I don't think the stock has any reason dive. It's pretty cheap.


----------



## Lephturn

If you have AAPL stock in any decent amount I would suggest collaring it or at least getting some protection.

Personally the stock is priced so high that I'm sticking to various options plays.


----------



## GOB

Lephturn said:


> If you have AAPL stock in any decent amount I would suggest collaring it or at least getting some protection.
> 
> Personally the stock is priced so high that I'm sticking to various options plays.


Do you mean priced high in magnitude or in valuation? From a value perspective it is about as low as it's ever been. Any dips in price unrelated to the performance of the company is a screaming opportunity to pick up some more shares.

Also, for the purposes of your spreadsheet, Rommel's AAPL shares were sold at 454.44 (Jan. 25 open)


----------



## kcowan

here is a piece from seeking Alpha that makes me feel better about holding all my AAPL.


[Url=http://seekingalpha.com/article/346451-5-growth-catalysts-for-apple?source=yahoo]Steve[/Url] said:


> I write about value-oriented stock investments. My "universe" is the set of stocks screened by Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula® Investing (MFI) technique, which includes only some of the cheapest stocks in the market against their trailing earnings.
> 
> So you can imagine my surprise and intrigue when Apple (AAPL), one of the great growth stories of the 21st century, recently appeared - and stayed - on those screens.
> 
> This is no fluke screening, either. The strategy uses EBIT/Enterprise Value earnings yield (EBIT/EV) instead of P/E ratio to value stocks, essentially rewarding a company for a lot of cash and penalizing for a lot of debt. When you remove Apple's net $97 billion in cash and investments, you get an earnings yield of 12.5% on the stock. To put that in a number comparable to the P/E ratio, that's about 8.0.
> 
> For perspective, the average market P/E ratio is about 14. Apple's EBIT/EV is exactly the same as its long time competitor, Microsoft (MSFT). The big difference is, in the most recent quarter, Apple generated 73% revenue growth to Microsoft's 4%!
> 
> There's only one explanation for this growth-vs-valuation dichotomy - the market must think Apple's growth story is about to hit a wall, or even reverse entirely. After all, a company growing this fast with over $125 billion in revenues is bound to flat line sooner or later, right? And there is always Apple's notorious history hanging over the stock, particularly with legendary CEO Steve Jobs passing away last year


.


----------



## indexxx

kcowan said:


> here is a piece from seeking Alpha that makes me feel better about holding all my AAPL.
> .


I just read Greenblatt's book this week, it's quite interesting and likely to be something I'll implement at some point... So, is the Alpha poster saying to buy. hold or sell? It seems at the top, he's surprised that Apple is on the screenings, which indicates buy. But at the end of the post, he talks about it hitting the wall, reversing, flatlining, etc. 

Clarification pls??


----------



## Lephturn

GOB said:


> Do you mean priced high in magnitude or in valuation? From a value perspective it is about as low as it's ever been. Any dips in price unrelated to the performance of the company is a screaming opportunity to pick up some more shares.
> 
> Also, for the purposes of your spreadsheet, Rommel's AAPL shares were sold at 454.44 (Jan. 25 open)


I mean priced high in terms of nominal value. That means that 100 share lots that I might use in conjunction with an options contract is so much $ that it's too large of a position given the size of my portfolio. I can run various options trades that don't require that much capital and still participate in the movement of the stock. Agreed that from a valuation perspective it's very reasonable. From a price/earnings compared with growth it's insanely cheap!

Thanks for the update - I missed Rommel's close. I'll update it.


----------



## GOB

Lephturn said:


> I mean priced high in terms of nominal value. That means that 100 share lots that I might use in conjunction with an options contract is so much $ that it's too large of a position given the size of my portfolio. I can run various options trades that don't require that much capital and still participate in the movement of the stock. Agreed that from a valuation perspective it's very reasonable. From a price/earnings compared with growth it's insanely cheap!
> 
> Thanks for the update - I missed Rommel's close. I'll update it.


Fair enough - I think a stock split would do a lot of good both for options traders and for smaller traders wanting to get in but want more than a share or two. I know it fundamentally makes no difference, but there is a definite psychological factor. All my colleagues who aren't avid investors look at the price and say "it's too expensive"


----------



## kcowan

indexxx said:


> I just read Greenblatt's book this week, it's quite interesting and likely to be something I'll implement at some point... So, is the Alpha poster saying to buy. hold or sell? It seems at the top, he's surprised that Apple is on the screenings, which indicates buy. But at the end of the post, he talks about it hitting the wall, reversing, flatlining, etc.
> 
> Clarification pls??


I think he is saying that any of the traditional screenings are saying it is a great buy. The latter comments are just cautions of what to beware of in case it falls out of favour. I think it is like full steam ahead but keep an eye out for rocks?


----------



## andrewf

Don't get too close to the island?

I agree that by traditional valuation metrics, AAPL is an attractive investment. I wonder why the street is being so cautious--what do they know/think that us naifs do not?


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Don't get too close to the island?
> 
> I agree that by traditional valuation metrics, AAPL is an attractive investment. I wonder why the street is being so cautious--what do they know/think that us naifs do not?


They're cautious because they've never seen anything like this before - a massive company growing like a start-up. Slowly but surely they have no choice but to clue in as Apple keeps outperforming. Take a look at the last week...


----------



## RoR

Anyone read the article in Bloomberg about them trying to stake out the textbook market with etexts? I forget and it was late, but something about if you want to sell a textbook you have to sell it through them and they get a cut.


----------



## kcowan

Yes they are late to the party with ebooks so it will be interesting to see how they do.


----------



## andrewf

I don't see why schools or textbook publishers would consider giving Apple a significant slice of that market. Kobo would make more sense, because then students could use whatever device they like, and the cost to schools/publishers would be lower.


----------



## GOB

kcowan said:


> Yes they are late to the party with ebooks so it will be interesting to see how they do.


What a run today...

They are late to e-books but first to textbooks, and they're doing it right by offering compelling advantages over paper books. It's going to be huge and they are going to further lock kids into their ecosystem so that they'll continue to buy Apple as adults (and for their kids). Brilliant strategy and it sets them apart from everyone else...once again.


----------



## ddkay

WTF @ $496.75/share on no news. This is getting a bit carried away.


----------



## buhhy

ddkay said:


> WTF @ $496.75/share on no news. This is getting a bit carried away.


Ah... I was wondering about this as well .___.


----------



## ddkay




----------



## blin10

bet alot of funds banking on a split in near future


----------



## jcgd

Screw the split. What a silly idea splits are.

I wouldn't be surprised if at some point the P/E runs up to the 19-23 range as people start to treat it like the growth stock it is. I've been debating putting money in lately but I was hoping for a dip, not a run up.


----------



## GOB

jcgd said:


> Screw the split. What a silly idea splits are.
> 
> I wouldn't be surprised if at some point the P/E runs up to the 19-23 range as people start to treat it like the growth stock it is. I've been debating putting money in lately but I was hoping for a dip, not a run up.


I wouldn't mind a split. It would give me and a whole whack of investors the ability to trade options affordably. I would like to sell some cash-secured puts but I don't have an extra $50,000 to do it with.

While a split doesn't change the valuation, I'm quite sure it would have a positive effect on the stock. Apple's done it before, no reason they can't or won't do it again. They might be waiting until the stock stagnates a bit or to counteract some bad news. This is why I feel so comfortable investing in Apple. Any downside can be mitigated by announcing a split, dividend or buyback - this puts a pretty high floor on the stock (not to mention the rapidly growing 100B in cash).


----------



## daddybigbucks

someone short this stock to make sense of it all.


----------



## Abha

I sold half my position today that I've held since early 2005.

It really hurt to sell because I've grown so fond of the stock but @ these levels even I'm very nervous. 

Unless the smart money knows something this type of move is especially dangerous, although it wouldn't surprise me to see this hit the psychological price-point of 500 before it pulls back in.


----------



## indexxx

Abha said:


> I sold half my position today that I've held since early 2005.
> 
> It really hurt to sell because I've grown so fond of the stock but @ these levels even I'm very nervous.
> 
> Unless the smart money knows something this type of move is especially dangerous, although it wouldn't surprise me to see this hit the psychological price-point of 500 before it pulls back in.


Aye, there's the rub...
But nobody can say, can they? It's just impossible to predict. What's really to stop Apple from running for another two years or more? Maybe it will peak at over $1,000 and then stay level. Could happen, maybe even more likely than not. Who in their wildest dreams would have seen a 580% increase since Oct. '08 with no serious correction? Maybe some upcoming release will be as game-changing as the iPod and iPhone. Look at the initial posts on this topic; people were pooh-poohing it at going beyond $350, saying it was flat, etc.


----------



## donald

The problem with apple is the share price,if one feels like there is a move up- to fully take advantage it's going to require capital which feels like it adds to the risk,i hold it in my non reg portfolio and it started as 15% of my holdings(which i know is high)i was going to sell some once it past 20% of my holding but i can't think of a equal place to put the profits....i want to add but then i will start to get heavy with it......like being at a cross roads and i can't decide what way to go....ya just know there is going to be a sell off but likely it will start another leg upwards or it gets away and there is no window and it keeps moving up......i wonder what the worst case is on a correction 420ish?


----------



## indexxx

donald said:


> The problem with apple is the share price,if one feels like there is a move up- to fully take advantage it's going to require capital which feels like it adds to the risk,i hold it in my non reg portfolio and it started as 15% of my holdings(which i know is high)i was going to sell some once it past 20% of my holding but i can't think of a equal place to put the profits....i want to add but then i will start to get heavy with it......like being at a cross roads and i can't decide what way to go....ya just know there is going to be a sell off but likely it will start another leg upwards or it gets away and there is no window and it keeps moving up......i wonder what the worst case is on a correction 420ish?



Personally I feel that any correction would be short lived and am long Apple. I believe that even without new blockbuster technology from them that more and more people and businesses will move into Macs and their peripherals; now that I'm a Mac user there is no way I'd ever switch back. And of course, over time I'll be replacing my laptop, buying an iPhone, maybe an iPad if I needed one for something, etc. Textbooks are an interesting development... who knows where anything will lead? Obviously the share price is high, but it's not the price, it's the percentage of growth that we're interested in; I'd rather double my money in three years at $500/share than make 20% on something that cost me $30 per.


----------



## GOB

I agree Apple is still a strong buy. There may be a pullback due to technicals but fundamentally nothing has changed and the company remained undervalued with respect to their growth and profit numbers. I could sell and hope to get back in after a quick pullback but that's too risky for me. We may break $500 and never look back, who knows. If people happily trade GOOG at over $600 then I don't see an issue with the magnitude of Apple's price (though I do still want a split).

Remember there are literally BILLIONS of people still yearning for their products. And before anybody says they cannot afford them, just remember that Apple sells iPhones for more in China and India than they cost over here and in the USA. There are a lot of wealthy people there buying up every single phone Apple sells, and the numbers just keep growing.


----------



## GOB

$500!


----------



## newbie

Abha said:


> I sold half my position today that I've held since early 2005.
> 
> It really hurt to sell because I've grown so fond of the stock but @ these levels even I'm very nervous.
> 
> Unless the smart money knows something this type of move is especially dangerous, although it wouldn't surprise me to see this hit the psychological price-point of 500 before it pulls back in.


i hope u had over 10k shares 
this stock was 33 bux back then
congrats


----------



## newbie

ddkay said:


>


that ain't parabolic , it is meteoric


----------



## ddkay

iPad 3 supposedly being announced March 7th


----------



## MrMatt

I've posted my reasons on why Apple has some risk, and the threats to continued growth.

But now, I'm hearing from everyone that I should buy AAPL, isn't this a warning flag itself.

Seriously, people on the street, guys who have only ever purchased 1 stock (AAPL), and of course the "hot tips" coworkers are all saying that we should all buy it because it is great, and nowhere to go but up.

Despite the great strengths, isn't the optimism a bit overexuberant?


----------



## andrewf

^ Nope. This time _is_ different. What I don't understand is why the bulls are bothering with direct equity. Why not buy some LEAPs and get levered to the upside?


----------



## GOB

AAPL is up around 60% since you've been bashing it, despite the talk of

-it's too big to go up
-Google will eat their lunch
-the Kindle Fire will kill the iPad
-the "XXX" will kill the iPhone/iPad/Apple
-Apple is nothing without Steve Jobs

I'm sure I've missed a few of the more compelling bear cases. Oh wait, there are none. Time to admit you were wrong? You are acting like AAPL is in some sort of huge bubble with your "this time is different" sarcasm. The problem is it remains undervalued by any metric you choose. There is no bubble here. The only thing that will take down Apple is a market meltdown, and that will just be a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. Based on its own merit, Apple is a clear winner and you cannot deny it. 

And yes, I have LEAPs along with my shares. They're doing quite nicely. You should get a few, although now may not be the best time.


----------



## GOB

I posted this chart a while back but can't seem to find it, I think when AAPL was in the low-mid $300s. I got ridiculed by a few for extrapolating the numbers. Well, here's an update:










As you can see, the relationship has held up remarkably well. Now obviously, if Apple changes their models and starts a dividend/buyback this will probably change. For now, however, AAPL seems to track cash per share very well. Apple is on track to make around $50B this year. Do the math...

Investing in strong companies is easy if you can filter out the crap and look at the real numbers.

Source: www.asymco.com (I highly recommend reading the articles there)


----------



## andrewf

I don't invest in individual equities. I don't deny that Aapl has been a good investment. I just dislike their management and products. I also laugh at the assessment that because it has been a good investment, it is going to continue to be a good investment for the next decade. Perhaps it will, but I think that is a false sense of certainty.


----------



## kcowan

I think andrewf will eventually be right if he sticks to his guns.


----------



## kcowan

Source
Anybody holding NetFlix stock?


----------



## Assetologist

Thanks for the perspective.


----------



## jtc

The data above appears to be pretty "selective".

But, while were on the topic, it looks Apple should be trading under $150 while compared to RIM:

((14.50/4.24)/11.8)*502.5= ~145.63


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> I don't invest in individual equities. I don't deny that Aapl has been a good investment. I just dislike their management and products. I also laugh at the assessment that because it has been a good investment, it is going to continue to be a good investment for the next decade. Perhaps it will, but I think that is a false sense of certainty.


Andrew, if you actually took the time to read and understand my many posts, you would realize that I'm not basing my projections of Apple on the past. Sure, I cite past growth and profit numbers to show the trend and te increasing growth rate, but I also provide a multitude of reason why that growth can continue to grow well into the FUTURE. 

I guess you don't trade individual equities, but for your information past performance is something that people look at when making investment decisions - they'd be stupid not to. Is that the only thing they should look at? Absolutely not. I'm looking at everything - past, present and future and I'm pretty sure my posts reflect that analysis. Almost everything I have stated from months ago is coming to fruition - that was forward looking analysis that is proving to be correct now. 

As for disliking management, that's your call. But there is no denying management has done a great job for shareholders. Given this is an investing board, your personal feelings don't really matter, so state it once and leave it at that. 

Why do you keep coming to a thread about a company you clearly hate and aren't interested in investing in? It's puzzling. This thread could be ten pages long if all the useless stuff that doesnt relate to AAPL as an investment was cut out


----------



## GOB

jtc said:


> The data above appears to be pretty "selective".
> 
> But, while were on the topic, it looks Apple should be trading under $150 while compared to RIM:
> 
> ((14.50/4.24)/11.8)*502.5= ~145.63


I think the point is that Apple is growing much faster than anything on the list...how is RIM's growth looking?


----------



## andrewf

GOB, this is a discussion forum. If you didn't want discussion, you came to the wrong place.


----------



## buhhy

Apple will last at least for a few years even if iPhone 5 is ****, which it won't be be. At most, the iPad 3 or iPhone 5 will be mediocre, which will still be enough to crush Android. iOS has the strongest ecosystem and the strongest brand identity.

Not saying that Apple will continue to grow so much, but Apple fundamentals give a strong case for its continued growth and profitability.

Bash Apple management and products all you want, nothing changes the fact that Apple has top-of-the-line products and unrivaled brand awareness.


----------



## newbie

GOB said:


> I posted this chart a while back but can't seem to find it, I think when AAPL was in the low-mid $300s. I got ridiculed by a few for extrapolating the numbers. Well, here's an update:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As you can see, the relationship has held up remarkably well. Now obviously, if Apple changes their models and starts a dividend/buyback this will probably change. For now, however, AAPL seems to track cash per share very well. Apple is on track to make around $50B this year. Do the math...
> 
> Investing in strong companies is easy if you can filter out the crap and look at the real numbers.
> 
> Source: www.asymco.com (I highly recommend reading the articles there)


well i admit that i should have gobbled some at 100 bux.
u r a very lucky man atm , but i think that to enter here is kinda risky, at least for me.
GL anyway


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> GOB, this is a discussion forum. If you didn't want discussion, you came to the wrong place.


It's a discussion forum with a focus on investing. I hardly think saying "Apple is for fanbois" or "Apple products suck an are overpriced" constitutes meaningful discussion. Take a look at your first few posts in this thread and tell me that tey didn't contribute absolutely nothing to a relevant discussion. I welcome discussion if there is a focus to it. 

When you bash a company based on personal feelings on this type of forum you do the readers a disservice. I don't think it's a stretch to say that most people are here to read and discuss investing and not personal feelings that have no relevance. I'm not a huge fan of Google but I don't go to that thread and voice my personal feelings. What I did do is contribute some thought about their recent earnings and if they are really in a strong a position as many people believe. That is useful discussion. Big difference.


----------



## newbie

GOB said:


> It's a discussion forum with a focus on investing. I hardly think saying "Apple is for fanbois" or "Apple products suck an are overpriced" constitutes meaningful discussion. Take a look at your first few posts in this thread and tell me that tey didn't contribute absolutely nothing to a relevant discussion. I welcome discussion if there is a focus to it.
> 
> When you bash a company based on personal feelings on this type of forum you do the readers a disservice. I don't think it's a stretch to say that most people are here to read and discuss investing and not personal feelings that have no relevance. I'm not a huge fan of Google but I don't go to that thread and voice my personal feelings. What I did do is contribute some thought about their recent earnings and if they are really in a strong a position as many people believe. That is useful discussion. Big difference.


projections for AAPL 4700 bux in the long run
just watching at bloomberg.
what is ur take GOB.
no Sarc here , trust me

AAPL expanded earnings 308 times in 10 years.


----------



## andrewf

GOB said:


> It's a discussion forum with a focus on investing. I hardly think saying "Apple is for fanbois" or "Apple products suck an are overpriced" constitutes meaningful discussion. Take a look at your first few posts in this thread and tell me that tey didn't contribute absolutely nothing to a relevant discussion. I welcome discussion if there is a focus to it.
> 
> When you bash a company based on personal feelings on this type of forum you do the readers a disservice. I don't think it's a stretch to say that most people are here to read and discuss investing and not personal feelings that have no relevance. I'm not a huge fan of Google but I don't go to that thread and voice my personal feelings. What I did do is contribute some thought about their recent earnings and if they are really in a strong a position as many people believe. That is useful discussion. Big difference.


Was this comment investing related? Yet he who is without sin cast the first stone.


----------



## GOB

It's certainly possible but that's many years away and lots can happen in between. I think $1000 is quite likely within the next 2-3 years, with the caveat that we don't slip into another recession.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Was this comment investing related? Yet he who is without sin cast the first stone.


Wow, you are childish. It's kind of the point I'm trying to make - your inane comments sidetrack the thread from what it should be. I won't waste anymore of my time on you. Anyone with rational thought can see that I've been spot on from day 1. You...not so much.


----------



## newbie

GOB said:


> It's certainly possible but that's many years away and lots can happen in between. I think $1000 is quite likely within the next 2-3 years, with the caveat that we don't slip into another recession.


well so YIO there is still time in the long run after this major rallY?
i mean this guy on Bloomberg gave some monstruos value to AAPL.
thing is now I wish it retraced a bit.
I think that AAPL is an impressive company , thing is no Steve JOBS and that concerns me.
thks for the reply anyway.
I saw the interview with Pim fox


----------



## GOB

Some valuable information from CEO Tim Cook's appearance today at the Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference. It goes without saying that you need to view what he says objectively but also realize he is more in tune wiht the industry and the future of it than all of us put together. I've bolded the particularly important/interesting points (order is reverse chronological):

• End of presentation. Paul Simon’s “Graceland” closes audio stream.

• Cook: *At Apple, we always focus on the future* and it is a privilege to be part of it.

• Cook: *Apple is a unique company, a unique culture that you cannot replicate. I am not going to witness or permit the slow undoing of it. I believe it in so reply. Steve drilled it into us for so many years that the company should revolve around great products. We should only focus on a few products that make a significant contribution to society. Theses are the type of things, discipline, that I focus on. Apple is place where people do their life’s best work. There is no better thrill that to see people using Apple products. This is what brings a smile to my face.*

• Cook: You will talk to your grandkids about these type of profound changes

• *Siri: Before we used a mouse. Then Apple came out with multi-touch on Macs, then into iPhones and iPad. Siri is a profound change in user input. Ah ha, it can work! I think Siri and iCloud are profound innovations.*

• Cook: Siri and iCloud are profound. 10 years ago, Steve announced the Mac as the “Digital Hub,” the center of people’s lives. iCloud turns that on its head. We all live on multiple devices now. It’s better with iCould than to use the Mac as the center hub. It makes your life easier. We now have over 100 million users of iCloud and we just launched it in october 2011. *iCloud is a strategy for the next decade or more.*

• Apple TV: We sold just under 3 million units last year. “If you don’t have one, you should go get one. I can’t live without it.” We call it a “hobby” so that there is no confusion that it is equal to iPhone or iPad or Mac – the 3 legs of the stool.., But, with Apple TV, we’ve always thought there was something there. We hope to find something larger. Those who have one understand. If you don’t have one, you should get one.

• *Cook: We have more cash than we need to run the daily business. I only ask for patience so we can do this in a deliberate way.*
• Cook: The cash was always discussed. It is being discussed more now due to the $100 billion balance.
• Cook: I am not religious about dividends. We are having very active discussions with the board on the cash on hand.

• *Cook: We’ve spent billion on acquisitions, on retail, on infrastructure, on many things. But we spend our money like it’s our last penny. I think shareholders want us to do it that way. We’ve never felt rich – it may sound bizarre, but it’s true.*

• There will still be a strong personal computer industry, but tablets will outstrip it in unit sales.
• *Tablets in general will cannibalized PCs.*
• iPad has cannibalized some Mac sales, but iPad is cannibalizing more Windows PCs. That is a plus for us.

•* Cook: I love competition – as long as people invent their own stuff.*

• The customer that we’re designing our product for are not join got be satisfied with limited-function products
• Cook: We have 170,000 iPad apps. I’m not sure the other platforms even have 100.
• Cook: Price is rarely the most important thing. A cheap unit may move some units. But when people get the unit home and use it, the joy is gone and every day they try to use it. “I got a good deal! Because you hate it!”

•* iPad is a profound change. It will be bigger than the PC*
• iOS and “that other operating system” development is the center of innovation now, not the PC
• Cook: I found that iPad – even before it shipped, as I was testing it in secret – quickly became 80-90% of my consumption and work
• Cook: iPad is the fastest adoption across a wide range than I’ve ever seen before

• *It took us 22 years to sell our first 55 million Macs. It took us 5 years to sell our first 55 million iPods. It took us 3 years to sell our first 55 million iPhones. It took us less than 7 quarters, 1 3/4 years, to sell our first 55 million iPads.*

• The reason iPad is so large is that it stands on the shoulders of everything that came before it: iPhone, iTunes Store, App Store, etc. People just know how to use it instinctively.
• iPad is on a trajectory that is off-the-charts. The ecosystem in 170,00 apps optimized for iPad
• We’ve only scratched the surface. We’ve focused on China and some in Brazil and Russia, but there is much headroom.
• iPhone has also created a holo effect for iPad. iPad also has a halo effect. (The Perfect Storm – MDN Ed.)
• iPhone changed everything. iPhone halo effect for the Mac is amazing.
• iPod halo effect worked somewhere, but not everywhere because some people were already getting music from their phones.
• *iPod created a halo effect for the Mac. 26 consecutive quarters, the Mac has outgrown the PC market now.*
• Cook: We convinced China Unicom to try to post-paid business with iPhone and it worked. Everyone wins. It won’t work in every market, but it can work in markets where it hasn’t yet really been tried.
• Cook: “The paramount thing is the product. It is the focus.”
• Cook: Everyone in every country want the best product. In emerging markets, in phones, the retailer has the significant portion of the distribution vs. developed markets where the carrier has control
• *25% of smartphone market is projected to come from China and Brazil. We are very, very focused on the smartphone market in China. $13 billion in revenue from China last year.*
• *The truth is that the handset industry is a jaw-dropping industry. The opportunity is huge. When you look at its enormity, our numbers don’t seem so large anymore.*
• Cook: “We had a decent quarter last quarter.” (laughter)

•* Apple puts the same energy into supplier responsibility as they put into new products.
• The ongoing independent FLA audit of Apple suppliers is probably the most comprehensive audit in history*
• Cook: We are taking the unprecedented step of reporting our progress monthly on our website, so we can be transparent to everyone on this issue.
• Cook: The use of underage labor in abhorrent. It is extremely rare in our supply chain, but we want it to be eliminated entirely.
• Cook: No one in our industry is doing more to improve working conditions than Apple. We continue to look into the supply chain and find and fix problems. I am so incredibly proud of the work we are doing in this area. We focus on the most difficult problems and stay with them until they are rectified.
• Cook: We believe in worker education and we provide free business classes – more than 60,000 employees have attended these classes (larger than Arizona State) so far…
• Cook: We believe that every worker had the right to safe working conditions at a competitive rate and Apple’s suppers must live up to this belief.
• Cook on Chinese supply chain and workers: “Apple takes working conditions very, very seriously and has been for a long time.”

I guess I may as well have bolded the whole thing...


----------



## newbie

GOB said:


> Some valuable information from CEO Tim Cook's appearance today at the Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference. It goes without saying that you need to view what he says objectively but also realize he is more in tune wiht the industry and the future of it than all of us put together. I've bolded the particularly important/interesting points (order is reverse chronological):


Gob
it would be nice if they revamped the iphone style though.
the fan club complained about it right?


----------



## GOB

newbie said:


> Gob
> it would be nice if they revamped the iphone style though.
> the fan club complained about it right?


No, the people who complained were the people who think Apple products only sell because because they want cool looking gadgets and want to show off that they have the newest thing. See examples in this thread. It's just another stereotype applied to Apple users. They don't understand the company or the userbase whatsoever. 

Anyone who actually buys Apple for the whole package would have been happy with the 4S. The design is already great and there was no real need to change it. Proof? It's the best selling smartphone in history. Looks like design isn't all that matters, don't you think? Apple haters pretend there is no functionality or reasoning behind Apple's design. As of the last several years that has clearly not been the case. The design not only looks good, but it's done for utility as well (e.g. unibody aluminium for laptops, external antenna for iPhone)

That said, I'm sure the iPhone 5 will have a new design and possibly a 4" screen, but it will be for good reason. If there is LTE, it will need a stronger battery and things will be rearranged to optimize space and performance. And yes, a fresh design after two years is sensible anyway.


----------



## newbie

GOB said:


> No, the people who complained were the people who think Apple products only sell because because they want cool looking gadgets and want to show off that they have the newest thing. See examples in this thread. It's just another stereotype applied to Apple users. They don't understand the company or the userbase whatsoever.
> 
> Anyone who actually buys Apple for the whole package would have been happy with the 4S. The design is already great and there was no real need to change it. Proof? It's the best selling smartphone in history. Looks like design isn't all that matters, don't you think? Apple haters pretend there is no functionality or reasoning behind Apple's design. As of the last several years that has clearly not been the case. The design not only looks good, but it's done for utility as well (e.g. unibody aluminium for laptops, external antenna for iPhone)
> 
> That said, I'm sure the iPhone 5 will have a new design and possibly a 4" screen, but it will be for good reason.


thks for the explanation.
i am a fan of the apple products and Steve jobs did a magnificent job revamping the old macintosh, and turning apple around.
he was a friggin Genius IMO.
glad u r on this gravy train.
enjoy the ride


----------



## buhhy

I wouldn't say Apple products are the best, neither in quality nor in functionality, but they've managed to build unrivaled brand value.


----------



## GOB

buhhy said:


> I wouldn't say Apple products are the best, neither in quality nor in functionality, but they've managed to build unrivaled brand value.


What's better? Tops in customer satisfaction, slowest depreciation - sounds like a leading product. Perhaps you are right about the functionality - if you're into heavily customizing your gadgets then there are better options. 95% of us are not interested in that, and for us Apple's UI makes it a lot more functional and usable than other devices. With the hundreds of thousands of apps available I see no reason to have to customize my phone - added stability and security is far more important to me than having a fancy home screen on my phone. There are so many vulnerabilities when you "root" phones and act like the systems operator - just look at the NFC technology on the latest Android software. Verizon has blocked it from use on their network phones, and recently rooted phones with NFC have been easily hacked. That is not the kind of personal information I want to give away access to. A lot of people realize that Apple's "closed" system is actually a good thing. 

The brand value is huge, but it came from somewhere and is strengthening because Apple keeps on putting out great products. If Apple put out crap the brand value would diminish quite rapidly.


----------



## Argonaut

Apple looks to have put in a key reversal today. Could send the stock lower in the short term. Though I do admit the stock is cheap on a relative basis.


----------



## ddkay

That spike was beyond ridiculous. Value is subjective, I would not go long on this stock again unless it got below $450. Also conditional on what else is happening at that time.


----------



## ddkay

Tattooing AAPL $500 on my chest does not seem like such a good idea now


----------



## Argonaut

Glad that I sold GOOG puts today and not AAPL. Would like to see Apple drop a bunch so I can sell OTM May puts with a nice premium.


----------



## buhhy

Fundamentally I still think AAPL is undervalued. Hmmm... is there a reason for this sudden turnaround today?

Would it be advisable to sell some of my AAPL holdings in anticipation of a correction, then buying in again at 450-460?


----------



## newbie

*aapl holders*

Gob
just came across that on bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ell-holdout-as-ipad-maker-s-stock-climbs.html

GL


----------



## GOB

buhhy said:


> Fundamentally I still think AAPL is undervalued. Hmmm... is there a reason for this sudden turnaround today?
> 
> Would it be advisable to sell some of my AAPL holdings in anticipation of a correction, then buying in again at 450-460?


It's coming back down to earth a bit - to be expected after several positive days in a row when the market was in the red. 

If you are in it for the long haul, I would hold. A few dollars isn't worth the risk of having it run away from you. If you have cash on hand, be ready to buy some more on a bigger dip (or enter some LEAPs)


----------



## GOB

newbie said:


> Gob
> just came across that on bloomberg.
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ell-holdout-as-ipad-maker-s-stock-climbs.html
> 
> GL


That guy needs to go back to the loony bin. Several obvious flaws to his argument - here are a few:

- The upper end Android phones are Apple's competition, not the cheap crap. These phones sell for about the same as iPhones. Apple makes more margin because they have fewer models, bulk orders and are simply more efficient. 

- Apple is the company that pushed HTML5 as the standard for mobiles by refusing to allow Flash on their devices. First, iPhones were at a disadvantage because you couldn't run Flash on them; now, HTML5 is going to put pressure on them? What?!

- Obviously if prices did need to be slashed, it would be Apple that has the ability to do it, not Samsung. Just look at the margins. 

This guy has been a bear since Apple was $200 - that should tell you all you need to know. I've learned long ago to disregard completely anything "professional" analysts say, especially when it comes to AAPL. There are many "amateur" analysts who provide a much better and realistic analysis, and this is reflected almost every single quarter when the amateur analysts' estimates completely blow the professionals out of the water. 

www.asymco.com is a great start if you want some real insight into Apple and the mobile device market as a whole, backed by real facts and figures as opposed to conjecture.


----------



## buhhy

newbie said:


> Gob
> just came across that on bloomberg.
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ell-holdout-as-ipad-maker-s-stock-climbs.html
> 
> GL


Lol, is that supposed to be pro or anti AAPL?

I wouldn't put too much stock in what this guy is saying. HTML5 isn't gonna change anything mobile. It means better accessibility when browsing, but native apps is still much better than any HTML5 band-aid solution. WP7/WP8 may or may not gain traction, but I believe it won't happen until 2013.


----------



## jcgd

How I do.


----------



## ddkay

Blow off top day 2


----------



## KaeJS

ddkay said:


> Blow off top day 2


Boom. Who's Shorting?


----------



## Toronto.gal

I would ask who's buying? 

It's already recovering pretty quickly.


----------



## KaeJS

Unless it's a false recovery like what happened yesterday from $505 to $513.


----------



## ddkay

GOOG -0.78%
AAPL -0.80%
AMZN -4.04%
MSFT +2.20%

Just buy the dip, anyone that buys protection has been getting their faces ripped off


----------



## Causalien

Aapl lawsuit in China is taking a turn for the worst. What was a no-consequence-if-I-lose lawsuit just turned into if-you-spill-your-bullshit-again-we-are-going-to-block-all-your-export lawsuit.


----------



## donald

She is back,wow insane movement,some fortunes won and lost-too early to tell but the low of 486 might of been a perfect buy...Im holding steady on my shares...you'd have to have balls of steel to be trading in & out.


----------



## ddkay

MSFT +5.00%

When was the last time you saw this much gain on a dog stock happen outside earnings and no news? Looks like Skype integration with all their platforms and Windows Phone are going to be a hit. MSFT is actually leading all the indices today, kept NASDAQ green since early a.m. Is Microsoft the new Apple?


----------



## andrewf

MSFT has been a dog as a stock, but the company has actually been performing pretty well over the last decade.


----------



## Causalien

GO tech bubble!


----------



## Toronto.gal

donald said:


> the low of 486 might of been a perfect buy...


What I said at 10 a.m.


----------



## kcowan

Reporting inflated revenues
It appears that adopting new accounting rules enables Apple to report inflated (+40%) P/E based on booking unearned revenues.


----------



## GOB

kcowan said:


> Reporting inflated revenues
> It appears that adopting new accounting rules enables Apple to report inflated (+40%) P/E based on booking unearned revenues.


Apple used to defer a large amount of their revenue back a couple of years ago. If you were aware of this it would have been a screaming buy even back then. Now, they are deferring less (or none, not sure) and booking earned revenue upfront. This is what normally happens anyway. It's P/E is what it is based on what it currently. They are not booking future revenue or anything like that. 

While many things in the article are correct, it makes no sense in inferring that Apple may be overvalued based on how it accounts for revenue and profit. It accounts for it almost exactly like any other company does. If this article came out two years ago, stating how Apple is deferring revenue and it's going to snowball into future quarters and become absolutely huge, then there would be some value to it. 

This accounting change happened a while back, by the way, so any recent growth numbers aren't skewed by the change. It's very real.


----------



## humble_pie

kcowan said:


> Reporting inflated revenues
> 
> It appears that adopting new accounting rules enables Apple to report inflated (+40%) P/E based on booking unearned revenues.


gosh. Isn't this what got the nortel gang into so much trouble.


----------



## GOB

No. Read my post. They are reporting real revenues. They were just deferring a chunk of them before becuase they were following a different set of guidelines. It's not that difficult to understand, don't get suckered by an article meant to spread mistruths.

kcownan's synopsis is incorrect. Before, they were not booking some of their earned revenues. Now they are booking all of their earned revenues, as is the norm. They never have and and are not booking unearned revenues.


----------



## Toronto.gal

As long as all their iGadgets sell [like the disappointing 4 million iPhone 4S in 3 days], *i* have little concern.

"To put that in perspective, the iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million handsets in its launch weekend, and the original iPhone took 74 days to reach the one million mark."


----------



## rebel_ins

The iPad growth is even more impressive.



> Tim Cook on the 55 million iPads sold to date:
> "This 55 is something no one would have guessed. Including us. To put it in context, it took us 22 years to sell 55 million Macs. It took us about 5 years to sell 22 million iPods, and it took us about 3 years to sell that many iPhones. And so, this thing is, as you said, it’s on a trajectory that’s off the charts."



http://www.asymco.com/2012/02/16/ios-devices-in-2011-vs-macs-sold-it-in-28-years/


----------



## Toronto.gal

I was trying to prove a point with my comment, that even the so called 'disappointing' sales figures are simply mind-boggling. 

What AAPL has managed to do, is nothing short of spectacular; can't take that away from them, no matter where they might be 2, 5 or 10 years from now.


----------



## m3s

When iPad came out I thought it would only sell to the fanbois and niche markets, but clearly it has gone beyond that. It's not like they invented tablets, they just made them a lot better

I've edited video/photos on PCs since it was possible but watching how much better a Mac handles media... not sure how long I can resist. Does Quicken work on Mac yet?..


----------



## dave2012

We run Quickbooks via VMWare Fusion on our Macs. Quicken or any other Windows program for that matter work fine.


----------



## dave2012

AAPL has become a major part of our total porfolio.. about 9.2% to be exact, mainly since I was buying it cheap ($98, $331 and $347) and it has enjoyed some ridiculous gains over time compared to most other investments I own.

I should probably sell some soon to reduce my exposure, but its hard to do without signs it is over valued, or that there is trouble ahead. Regardless perhaps having 9.2% of our portfolio currently in one stock should be reason enough to sell some...

Thoughts?


----------



## Darisha

This is one of the few stock I have that is up in value. I bought the bulk of my stock when the market was too high and am now regretting it, but Apple is by far the best performer I have.


----------



## kcowan

GOB said:


> kcownan's synopsis is incorrect.


Actually there is no synopsis by kcowan. I am doing the belguy trick and quoting an article w/o comment. The accounting change inflates results. It probably affects AAPL less than others. I am not worried.


----------



## kcowan

dave2012 said:


> AAPL has become a major part of our total porfolio.. about 9.2% to be exact, mainly since I was buying it cheap ($98, $331 and $347) and it has enjoyed some ridiculous gains over time compared to most other investments I own.
> 
> I should probably sell some soon to reduce my exposure, but its hard to do without signs it is over valued, or that there is trouble ahead. Regardless perhaps having 9.2% of our portfolio currently in one stock should be reason enough to sell some...
> 
> Thoughts?


I made that mistake back when they were trading at $75. I sold all and repurchased half for $52 on a pullback. Now I just let the 300 shares ride. The problem is trying to time the trough. The recent trough recovered in days.

This is why I am against rebalancing. That is OK if you know nothing (like couch potatos). But otherwise it is about selling your winners to invest in losers all because you are risk averse! Sure you can avoid a loss that way. But you also avoid further gains like with Apple.


----------



## humble_pie

i'm glad there are voices here & there opposing rebalancing. May i join these voices in saying there is no reason whatsoever to sell strong stock, certainly not until it has become not-so-strong stock.

my largest holding is just over 15% of the portf. I keep a close eye on it. It has a good dividend yield plus decent options, so it's also a buy for the tax-favoured income. Not thinking of selling.

apple is in a far higher octane world, but the same don't-sell-until-there-are-good-reasons principle applies i think.


----------



## buhhy

mode3sour said:


> When iPad came out I thought it would only sell to the fanbois and niche markets, but clearly it has gone beyond that. It's not like they invented tablets, they just made them a lot better
> 
> I've edited video/photos on PCs since it was possible but watching how much better a Mac handles media... not sure how long I can resist. Does Quicken work on Mac yet?..


How does Mac handle media better?


----------



## GOB

kcowan said:


> Actually there is no synopsis by kcowan. I am doing the belguy trick and quoting an article w/o comment. The accounting change inflates results. It probably affects AAPL less than others. I am not worried.


You stated Apple is allowed to book unearned revenues. I dont know of you took that from the article or if that's the conclusoon you formed from reading it but either way it is wrong. They are not allowed to do anything of the sort. There is no inflation due to the accounting change. The change has aligned Apple with everyone else. 

It's a change from deferring a sale over time to realizing the sale in full when it occurs. That's all - nothing booked is unearned. 

If Apple were doing something this shady it would be BIG news. Their tiniest mistakes turn into media frenzies, don't you think this would become something similar if there was even a shred of truth to it?


----------



## Argonaut

This thread is dozens of pages, but I feel that the most important and pertinent issue for Apple stock has not come up. The question is, why is the ticker AAPL and not APPL?


----------



## dave2012

Argonaut said:


> This thread is dozens of pages, but I feel that the most important and pertinent issue for Apple stock has not come up. The question is, why is the ticker AAPL and not APPL?


Should be AAA-PL...


----------



## indexxx

I would personally not sell Apple at this point- there is too much upside on the horizon. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone advising to sell this stock right now- unless you believe there is a slight correction ahead before a new run, and you want to sell now and repurchase below $500. 

-Apple is sitting on almost 100 billion dollars. 
-Tim Cook is hinting at plans for some of that green- possibly dividends or a stock split, which could increase the value of shares.
-They are the most valuable company in the world right now. Whatever the future brings, that is a HUGE factor.
-Their products are incredibly well-made, ergonomically excellent, fun, functional, easy to use, and desired by billions of people who want Apple and nothing else.
-They are just about to release Mountain Lion, with greater functionality and integration with their mobile platforms as well as a wealth of significant upgrading for the Chinese market.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap...preview-with-over-100-new-features-2012-02-16
-They recently made a foray into electronic textbooks.
-Apple TV is in the offing.
-They have a moat around their products in that they are self-integrated with iCloud, iTunes, etc and their products all work seamlessly together- a big deal.
-Every analyst's stock price estimate keeps rising- some are talking about the possibility of $1,000 in a few years.
-Apple is incredibly well-run, has massive brand identity and desirability, a creative team that is second to none, and more and more people around the world are buying in to their product line (and by extension, iTunes etc)- which means repeat customers for a long, long time.
-Who knows where their ingenuity and ideas will go- imagine if they cornered the market on electronic textbooks or some other educational fundamental. --How about if they decide to get into the POS industry, for sales registers in retail and restaurants?
-The iPad 3 will be released shortly.
-The iPhone 5 is soon to follow.
-every benchmark rates Apple as significantly undervalued

etc etc etc.


----------



## ddkay

I'm interested in what international deals Apple can strike among ISPs and tv/film distributors for iTV to become peoples only living room media service. I'm also interested in purchasing a macbook but waiting for a refresh which generally lags Intels release roadmap currently pointing to April 8.


----------



## kcowan

GOB
I think we have an issue with what constitutes earned revenues. Or maybe on conservative accounting versus GAAP approved accounting. At any rate, I was just pointing out the significance of the change for any investor evaluating the numbers, not meaning to impune the motives of the change.


----------



## GOB

kcowan said:


> GOB
> I think we have an issue with what constitutes earned revenues. Or maybe on conservative accounting versus GAAP approved accounting. At any rate, I was just pointing out the significance of the change for any investor evaluating the numbers, not meaning to impune the motives of the change.


Fair enough. I just think we are so far past that change that it's hardly worth talking about, and the fact that Apple is not alone in how they account for their hardware makes it a moot point. Writing an article about it today citing it as a reason to be skeptical about their performance makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

Here's a good excerpt (from 2009, before they switched methods): 



> Apple accounts for many iPhone sales by spreading the revenue over two years on the theory that the phone is subsidized in exchange for a two-year contract because Apple provides free software updates over the life of the phone.*
> 
> At the same time, however, Apple gets all the iPhone cash upfront, which has produced extraordinary cash flow relative to reported earnings in recent years.
> 
> The full power of the iPhone's success has long been visible to anyone who has looked at the company's cash flow statement. In recent quarters, Apple has also begun publishing "non-GAAP" earnings that show what their reported EPS would have been had they accounted for the phones in a more typical way. The company's GAAP earnings, however, have never fully reflected the awesome profitability of the iPhone.
> 
> 
> 
> Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com...counting-rule-change-bill-shope#ixzz1mya5AOZy


Since Apple makes the vast majority of their money on the hardware sale (their software updates are free, in fact) it makes sense that the revenue be fully recognized on the sale of the device. They simply had to follow the GAAP rules at the time. There's nothing fishy going on now - everyone does it and rightfully so because the rules have changed. If you could have realized that they were deferring massive amounts of revenue to future quarters it would have been further confirmation that AAPL would explode. However, that advantage is gone now I believe, and Apple reports revenues normally and like anyone else.

Does it make sense to book 12.5% of the revenue of a device when it sells? I don't think so, conservative or not. Apple is one of the most conservative companies out there in terms of their guidance, so I don't think they can be accused of cooking the books to make things look better than they are. Underpromise and overdeliver has been their mantra for a long time now, in terms of the performance of the company.


----------



## MrMatt

I don't think that Apple can negotiate to be the only content delivery system. Sure they might get some exclusives, but they won't be the only one.

Netflix, the cable and satellite companies etc are all strong competitors.
In addition a company like Sony won't give Apple exclusivity on their entertainment products.

Apple sells hardware, but iTunes is going to become more and more important. That is where the ongoing revenue stream is.


----------



## Causalien

Heads up guys. The Apple I-something killer is here. 5 years earlier than I thought. This will bring upward pressure on most tech companies and a new round of innovation.
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/21/google-to-sell-terminator-style-glasses-by-years-end/


----------



## indexxx

Causalien said:


> Heads up guys. The Apple I-something killer is here. 5 years earlier than I thought. This will bring upward pressure on most tech companies and a new round of innovation.
> http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/21/google-to-sell-terminator-style-glasses-by-years-end/


...And Apple shall redesign and conquer...


----------



## Causalien

indexxx said:


> ...And Apple shall redesign and conquer...


I'd buy that. Goog isn't well known for their fashion sense. The prototype looks ugly.

But a look through their recent patent application says that they have no patent in this space. So I give them 2 years if goog's attempt proves to be popular. So 3 years until a product is out.


----------



## Jungle

Guys ( and gals) .. is it too late to buy Apple shares?


----------



## Argonaut

Would wait until the 200 day moving average. Bounced off there three times recently: August '10, June '11, November '12. Too overbought right now. Sell puts on it instead, great premium. July 400 strike is a free $630, (less if spread).


----------



## indexxx

Quoting my own post a few days ago...



indexxx said:


> -Apple is sitting on almost 100 billion dollars.
> -Tim Cook is hinting at plans for some of that green- possibly dividends or a stock split, which could increase the attractiveness (and therefore value) of shares.
> -They are the most valuable company in the world right now. Whatever the future brings, that is a HUGE factor.
> -Their products are incredibly well-made, ergonomically excellent, fun, functional, easy to use, and desired by billions of people who want Apple and nothing else.
> -They are just about to release Mountain Lion, with greater functionality and integration with their mobile platforms as well as a wealth of significant upgrading for the Chinese market.
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap...preview-with-over-100-new-features-2012-02-16
> -They recently made a foray into electronic textbooks.
> -Apple TV is in the offing.
> -They have a moat around their products in that they are self-integrated with iCloud, iTunes, etc and their products all work seamlessly together- a big deal.
> -Every analyst's stock price estimate keeps rising- some are talking about the possibility of $1,000 in a few years.
> -Apple is incredibly well-run, has massive brand identity and desirability, a creative team that is second to none, and more and more people around the world are buying in to their product line (and by extension, iTunes etc)- which means repeat customers for a long, long time.
> -Who knows where their ingenuity and ideas will go- imagine if they cornered the market on electronic textbooks or some other educational fundamental. --How about if they decide to get into the POS industry, for sales registers in retail and restaurants?
> -The iPad 3 will be released shortly.
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204909104577236660687752828.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW
> -The iPhone 5 is soon to follow.
> -every benchmark rates Apple as significantly undervalued
> 
> etc etc etc.


For the above reasons, probably not too late to buy Apple... I'd rather double my money at $500/share than make 20% at $30.
-But of course, I could be wrong...


----------



## financialnoob

Causalien: I'm not sure I'd want to wear that 

It seems to be based on their Google Goggles app though.

http://www.google.com/mobile/goggles/#text

It's a pretty cool app. Not sure about fashion accessory though.


----------



## humble_pie

if aapl declares a substantial dividend w some or most of the cash, canadian non-reg'd investors who are buying now or recently will be getting their own $$ reimbursed but with a great big fat 100% tax liability. How dumb is that.

argo's suggestion to sell a couple puts makes more sense.

_" Sell puts on it instead, great premium. July 400 strike is a free $630, (less if spread)." _

although i might go to the january 400Ps instead for $1,885.00. Or something like (buy jan 350P 9.80 + sell jan 400P 18.85) for a net $905 gain but the risk window is limited to $5000 per contract. Whereas with a plain 400 put sell the theoretical risk is the entire 40,000.


----------



## andrewf

A stock buyback would be more efficient for the foreign holders of AAPL. I would hope management takes that into account. Management could also reasonably argue that the stock is a good investment at this valuation. Buybacks are also more flexible than dividends as they do not constitute a commitment to a future stream of payouts in investors' minds. A year ago I was suggesting a buyback. Management could have added a lot of value for investors had they done that.


----------



## Argonaut

humble: I've found that with spreads, going tighter with more contracts tends to get more premium. For instance, in your example buying two contracts of the 375 instead of the 350, along with selling two of the 400 nets about $170 more. The risk is still $5000 total. Going even tighter with more contracts nets more money still. Of course, the commissions will be more with a lot of brokers, but a negligible difference compared to the extra cash.

This is probably best used on the big option plays: AAPL, GOOG, GLD, SPY. I tried two days in a row on TD (USA) and the order didn't get filled.


----------



## humble_pie

thankx much argo, sounds good.
i will study up your numbers para la manana.
no use looking now, after hours option quotes are always badly skewed.

had no luck today either in aapl or in pg, they raised the asks in the ones i wanted to buy so much i didn't even bother to try.


----------



## humble_pie

i would imagine td US options are not particularly liquid so harder to get a spread done.

hard as well on montreal. Just because it's montreal.


----------



## GOB

humble_pie said:


> if aapl declares a substantial dividend w some or most of the cash, canadian non-reg'd investors who are buying now or recently will be getting their own $$ reimbursed but with a great big fat 100% tax liability. How dumb is that.
> 
> argo's suggestion to sell a couple puts makes more sense.
> 
> _" Sell puts on it instead, great premium. July 400 strike is a free $630, (less if spread)." _
> 
> although i might go to the january 400Ps instead for $1,885.00. Or something like (buy jan 350P 9.80 + sell jan 400P 18.85) for a net $905 gain but the risk window is limited to $5000 per contract. Whereas with a plain 400 put sell the theoretical risk is the entire 40,000.


I'm not experienced with spreads. What's the total amount of cash needed to put up for this kind of play? Only $5000?


----------



## humble_pie

it depends whether your particular broker will recognize any kind of margin credit at all for the long side of an option pair. Mine does not.

gob i don't wish to discourage you but there is a learning process that has to be undergone.

people like argo & avrex are exceptionally fast learners, so we can only cheer em on. What's noticeable in their learning trajectories is the speed with which they can both reject wrong moves. To get to the choices they both make so fast, there are literally thousands of false moves that have to be rejected on a subconscious level. Pretty amazing. I'm kind of a slow dough myself.

but yes, options are usually traded as pairs, or trios, or even quads, & often in option/stk combos.


----------



## GOB

Thanks for the reply, I understand it's not something you just jump into. I am not completely clueless though, I do a few covered calls, LEAPs, so I think I can pick this up rather quickly though it is new territory. Just need to make sure how my broker deals with it, as you said.


----------



## humble_pie

gob i think you would too, as in pick up quickly.

argo's put pairs are good reading, good studies.


----------



## GOB

No dividend announced today at the shareholder meeting, but it is all but a sure thing that Apple is going to do something with some of their cash in the near future. Could be a dividend, buyback or both but it would almost certainly boost shareholder value.


----------



## humble_pie

can't say enuf that any dividend is going to sock a 100% taxable income onto canadians so folks buying aapl now or recently will just be getting a reimbursement w tax strings attached.

one way to mitigate the tax consequences would be to convert the 100% txble dividend into 50% txble capital gains by selling the stock on the cusp of its X date. There will undoubtedly be a huge whoopla over the div so plenty opportunities to sell. One could go to options to cross the X date barrier if one wanted. Although i wouldn't.


----------



## indexxx

humble_pie said:


> can't say enuf that any dividend is going to sock a 100% taxable income onto canadians so folks buying aapl now or recently will just be getting a reimbursement w tax strings attached.
> 
> one way to mitigate the tax consequences would be to convert the 100% txble dividend into 50% txble capital gains by selling the stock on the cusp of its X date. There will undoubtedly be a huge whoopla over the div so plenty opportunities to sell. One could go to options to cross the X date barrier if one wanted. Although i wouldn't.


-Glad now that all my Aapls are in sheltered baskets!


----------



## ddkay

"iPad 3 units have reached warehouses in Los Angeles, en route to Chicago and New York City ahead of March 7 launch"


----------



## GOB

It's amazing how many catalysts are upcoming that have potential to send the stock rocketing further:

- iPad 3
- iPhone 5
- TV?
- dividend/buyback
- earnings reports


----------



## Jungle

I am 160 pages through Steve Jobs 500 page biography. What a mental case and genius he was. 

I think he is mainly responsible for making Apple a market leader and I would have concern this won't be case in the future, now that's he dead.


----------



## GOB

I agree Jobs was responsible for much of Apple's success to date, but I would argue much of the hard work has been done. Apple is well positioned now to be dominant for many years, and if not dominant then still making huge amounts of money. Look at Microsoft, continue to make record amounts of money with an absolute bozo running it. And Tom Cook is no slouch, by the way.


----------



## ddkay

IPhone's Crutch of Subsidies: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204653604577247471036145902.html

good point


----------



## andrewf

^ Nah, don't worry about margin compression!


----------



## Jungle

Even Bill Gates said Jobs had a keen sense for making things the market wanted, before they even knew they wanted it. 

Then add his compulsive obsession and bi polar controlling behavior for making fine products and wham, crazy growth story. 

Maybe Apple has enough ideas for a few years, but what about after that? Will Cook carry forward what Job's plan, or will they continue to make products the market does not know about, but will want once invented? Can they do that as well without Jobs? 

Jobs was quite an extraordinary individual.


----------



## kcowan

So far so good. But it is what comes after the iPad and iPhone that will have to be seen. Is it iCloud and iTV. Don't know. It depends on what cooperation they can get. I don't see Sony cooperating anytime soon but then their planning horizon is mush longer than most of us can see.

(I mean they opened stores when others were closing them. They charged for songs when others were offering them free. They were able to defy "common sense" and make a profit. They offered a phone without a keyboard when everyone else considered a keyboard essential.)

BTW 4 of my wife's girlfriends are happily using iPads here in PV. Before the iPad, they all used PCs...


----------



## ddkay

kcowan said:


> They offered a phone without a keyboard when everyone else considered a keyboard essential.


Well everyone except LG lol

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LG_Prada
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqHWQTqRoe8


----------



## dave2012

Wish I could buy more, but I'm pretty maxed out on AAPL.

Sitting at $535 today!


----------



## GOB

Jungle said:


> Even Bill Gates said Jobs had a keen sense for making things the market wanted, before they even knew they wanted it.
> 
> Then add his compulsive obsession and bi polar controlling behavior for making fine products and wham, crazy growth story.
> 
> Maybe Apple has enough ideas for a few years, but what about after that? Will Cook carry forward what Job's plan, or will they continue to make products the market does not know about, but will want once invented? Can they do that as well without Jobs?
> 
> Jobs was quite an extraordinary individual.


You may or may not be correct, but it has very little impact on whether AAPL is a great investment right now and for next good while. 

Apple is a massive company with many brilliant minds capable of turning out great products. Jobs is not replaceable but Apple is likely to continue to be strong going forward. Who knows how many years of product Apple has planned for with Jobs' vision. No other company has a Jobs either, and Apple is on a far better footing than any of its competitors.


----------



## kcowan

ddkay said:


> Well everyone except LG lol
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LG_Prada
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqHWQTqRoe8


Do you remember the Newton?


----------



## donald

I feel like i'm @ a crossroad and each week that passes i feel like i should make a decision but i'm stuck!My apple holding is creeping to be about 14% of my portfolio(non reg)and i want to balance things out a bit better but also want to let a winner run.I'm up about 4500 hun in 6 mth(25 shares)....have'nt took anything off the table....I get more uncomfortable with my winning stocks than with my losers and i feel comfortable with my flat positions(wierd how the mind works)Got the samething going on with my phillip morris holding(ironically)by luck they both are over 10% and my biggest holdings by book value first/profits.
This stock could easily go to 486 in a heartbeat....i keep thinking of taking some off the table.Greed/fear-this is where it starts feeling tough.Wondering if im too closely flirting with greed.


----------



## indexxx

donald said:


> I feel like i'm @ a crossroad and each week that passes i feel like i should make a decision but i'm stuck!My apple holding is creeping to be about 14% of my portfolio(non reg)and i want to balance things out a bit better but also want to let a winner run.I'm up about 4500 hun in 6 mth(25 shares)....have'nt took anything off the table....I get more uncomfortable with my winning stocks than with my losers and i feel comfortable with my flat positions(wierd how the mind works)Got the samething going on with my phillip morris holding(ironically)by luck they both are over 10% and my biggest holdings by book value first/profits.
> This stock could easily go to 486 in a heartbeat....i keep thinking of taking some off the table.Greed/fear-this is where it starts feeling tough.Wondering if im too closely flirting with greed.


Which stock could go to 486- you mean you think AAPL will dive, or PM will jump from 84 to 486? if so, I want in!! (just kidding, I know what you meant) But for now, I'm firm in my belief that Apple is good to grow for quite some time. I'll quote my post of a while ago:

"I would personally not sell Apple at this point- there is too much upside on the horizon. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone advising to sell this stock right now- unless you believe there is a slight correction ahead before a new run, and you want to sell now and repurchase. 

-Apple is sitting on almost 100 billion dollars. 
-Tim Cook is hinting at plans for some of that green- possibly dividends or a stock split, which could increase the value of shares.
-They are the most valuable company in the world right now. Whatever the future brings, that is a HUGE factor.
-Their products are incredibly well-made, ergonomically excellent, fun, functional, easy to use, and desired by billions of people who want Apple and nothing else.
-They are just about to release Mountain Lion, with greater functionality and integration with their mobile platforms as well as a wealth of significant upgrading for the Chinese market.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/app...res-2012-02-16
-They recently made a foray into electronic textbooks.
-Apple TV is in the offing.
-They have a moat around their products in that they are self-integrated with iCloud, iTunes, etc and their products all work seamlessly together- a big deal.
-Every analyst's stock price estimate keeps rising- some are talking about the possibility of $1,000 in a few years.
-Apple is incredibly well-run, has massive brand identity and desirability, a creative team that is second to none, and more and more people around the world are buying in to their product line (and by extension, iTunes etc)- which means repeat customers for a long, long time.
-Who knows where their ingenuity and ideas will go- imagine if they cornered the market on electronic textbooks or some other educational fundamental. --How about if they decide to get into the POS industry, for sales registers in retail and restaurants?
-The iPad 3 will be released shortly.
-The iPhone 5 is soon to follow.
-every benchmark rates Apple as significantly undervalued

etc etc etc."


----------



## donald

I'm not so worried about the company,i'm more worried about the traders/investors and there emotions!Last low on apple was 486 in that dip recently and alittle bad news broad/or company related and the thing will craft down.I like apple inc-traders are what the danger is.Like how traders selled of caterpiller to $67 few mth ago(company stayed the same)now it's back at 115!(that is the work of traders dumping/pumping)I'm fearful of traders!


----------



## dave2012

Can someone explain how that recent ridiculous dip could occur? Was it a co-incidence to do with someone having an open order without setting a limit to sell and someone else having a buy limit order set very low? Any insite would be great!

Cheers


----------



## MrMatt

kcowan said:


> They offered a phone without a keyboard when everyone else considered a keyboard essential.)
> 
> BTW 4 of my wife's girlfriends are happily using iPads here in PV. Before the iPad, they all used PCs...


If you want to enter a lot of text, a keyboard is very helpful. The touch keypads are not as good.

A tablet isn't a PC. You can do a lot on a tablet, but there are somethings you need an actual computer setup for (today).

Interesting one is ubuntu for android, I expect apple will do a similar thing. They'll probably get the credit for being so innovative on that too.


----------



## kcowan

MrMatt said:


> If you want to enter a lot of text, a keyboard is very helpful. The touch keypads are not as good.
> 
> A tablet isn't a PC. You can do a lot on a tablet, but there are somethings you need an actual computer setup for (today)...


One of the ladies has a wireless keyboard for power typing. Sure is slick.


----------



## GOB

MrMatt said:


> If you want to enter a lot of text, a keyboard is very helpful. The touch keypads are not as good.
> 
> A tablet isn't a PC. You can do a lot on a tablet, but there are somethings you need an actual computer setup for (today).
> 
> Interesting one is ubuntu for android, I expect apple will do a similar thing. They'll probably get the credit for being so innovative on that too.


Of course there are, and for those things people are buying Macs increasingly (Mac growth has outpaced PC growth for 26 straight quarters - 6.5 years)


----------



## groceryalerts

I have started to drink the AAPL Koolaid - I purchased some shares in my RRSP. It seems expensive but I have become a Mac user - wife has a Mac, have an iPad2 (didn't pay for it though) and use iTunes. I can't believe I have become an "i" guy!


----------



## jcgd

It's because it's ridiculously easy to be come an "i" guy. Once a person likes one product they are comfortable and expand to other products. iPod > iPhone > Mac

You can't run and you can't hide. Apple will find you.


----------



## gibor365

What is AAPL target?! $600, $800, $1000


----------



## londoncalling

groceryalerts said:


> I have started to drink the AAPL Koolaid - I purchased some shares in my RRSP. It seems expensive but I have become a Mac user - wife has a Mac, have an iPad2 (didn't pay for it though) and use iTunes. I can't believe I have become an "i" guy!


What makes it seem expensive? the price tag for one share? the fact that it has recently skyrocketed? Just trying to figure out how people rationalize these relative terms. It has a lower P/E than most of its peers. However, its growth rate is currently quite high.


----------



## indexxx

jcgd said:


> It's because it's ridiculously easy to be come an "i" guy. Once a person likes one product they are comfortable and expand to other products. iPod > iPhone > Mac
> 
> You can't run and you can't hide. Apple will find you.


Yeah, it's great, isn't it?



Target price is variously quoted anywhere from $600-700 this year, and up to or surpassing $1000 within three.


- Was groceryalerts upthread referring to the cost of Mac products, or the stock? I think Macs are cheaper in the long run- more free software on purchase, less time and money spent on security, and in my experience, far more durable- my last 'top-of-the-line' Toshiba laptop needed two power supplies replaced, a new battery, the CD tray replaced, and the hard drive replaced within 2-3 years. Total repairs- over $800. I was forever having freezing issues and other conflicts that were incredibly frustrating. And it's now sitting unused as it has developed some real issues in performance that I can't seem to rectify- the battery is dead (again), it bogs down horribly when running even low-usage programs, the CD tray won't open, and the wireless no longer works. My MacBook has run flawlessly from the day I got it. All my Apple products just work, and I like that.

The stock is as cheap as you perceive it to be; it's still rated quite undervalued, but aside from that, I'd rather double my money in three years at $550/share than make 15% on another stock bought at $40. It's about the percentage of return, not the cost of each share.


----------



## Spudd

The first iphone I got broke within the first 2 days I had it. Its speaker broke so you could not hear anything. Yes, Apple replaced it for me and my new one has been great, but Apples don't 100% "just work". My friend who has a Macbook Pro has had numerous problems with it through the time she's had it. My other friend's ipod died on her twice. On the other hand the Dell laptop I'm typing this on has given me no problems at all in the time I've had it. 

I do agree that in general, Apples probably beat the competition in terms of reliability. But I felt the need to point out that it's not ALWAYS the case.


----------



## indexxx

Spudd said:


> The first iphone I got broke within the first 2 days I had it. Its speaker broke so you could not hear anything. Yes, Apple replaced it for me and my new one has been great, but Apples don't 100% "just work". My friend who has a Macbook Pro has had numerous problems with it through the time she's had it. My other friend's ipod died on her twice. On the other hand the Dell laptop I'm typing this on has given me no problems at all in the time I've had it.
> 
> I do agree that in general, Apples probably beat the competition in terms of reliability. But I felt the need to point out that it's not ALWAYS the case.


Fair enough- I can only go by my experience and that of friends and family- Macs have served faithfully, my wife's Dell is a dog turd.


----------



## dave2012

I've been workings with PC's/Windows for over 25 years and MAC's for the last 4 years in both office and home. Vastly different experiences, and I wished I had ditched Windows for MAC OS X years ago.

MAC's cost me a bit more upfront but in the long run they are so much more reliable then PC's (Windows), I don't have to replace them every few years because they get so incredibly slow, and I save a TON of time not having to maintain them. I also don't have to put up with the tons of bloatware that they typically ship with. My budget for hardware and maintenance is much less than when we used Windows, and I don't have to deal with slow computers all the time.

MAC OS just works. Sure like anything else there is no guarantee 100% of people won't have an issue, but on average PC's/Windows have a poor reputation compared to MAC. Talk to people who have extensive experience with both. How often do we hear of people still running Windows XP? (me included on my MAC running Quickbooks) because of all the issues with new releases of Windows. When a new release of MAC OSX comes out, users upgrade without worrying about the company having done a whole rewrite that introduces another 3 or 4 years of bugs and frustrations.

I give it to Microsoft though... they have kept a huge population employed over the years keeping their machines running!

We still have a few Windows boxes in the office but they haven't been used in some time since they are just sooooo sllllooowww. Maybe if we loaded Windows 95 they would speed up... better yet DOS!

I've become a huge Apple fan over the last few years since we decided to made the switch (and AAPL has since become my biggest holding) because of my experiences with Apple products (Mac Pros, iMac, iPhone, Macbooks), and I want to invest in a company I really believe in. They still have a small market share too which provides lots of future upside, and they have a variety of new products in the pipeline that people are itching to purchase.

I'd definitely consider selling some of my AAPL, but I just can't find a reason too yet, other than to perhaps buy a few iPad 3's in a few weeks


----------



## mgr1397

dave2012 said:


> I've been workings with PC's/Windows for over 25 years and MAC's for the last 4 years in both office and home. Vastly different experiences, and I wished I had ditched Windows for MAC OS X years ago.
> 
> MAC's cost me a bit more upfront but in the long run they are so much more reliable then PC's (Windows), I don't have to replace them every few years because they get so incredibly slow, and I save a TON of time not having to maintain them. I also don't have to put up with the tons of bloatware that they typically ship with. My budget for hardware and maintenance is much less than when we used Windows, and I don't have to deal with slow computers all the time.
> 
> MAC OS just works. Sure like anything else there is no guarantee 100% of people won't have an issue, but on average PC's/Windows have a poor reputation compared to MAC. Talk to people who have extensive experience with both. How often do we hear of people still running Windows XP? (me included on my MAC running Quickbooks) because of all the issues with new releases of Windows. When a new release of MAC OSX comes out, users upgrade without worrying about the company having done a whole rewrite that introduces another 3 or 4 years of bugs and frustrations.
> 
> I give it to Microsoft though... they have kept a huge population employed over the years keeping their machines running!
> 
> We still have a few Windows boxes in the office but they haven't been used in some time since they are just sooooo sllllooowww. Maybe if we loaded Windows 95 they would speed up... better yet DOS!
> 
> I've become a huge Apple fan over the last few years since we decided to made the switch (and AAPL has since become my biggest holding) because of my experiences with Apple products (Mac Pros, iMac, iPhone, Macbooks), and I want to invest in a company I really believe in. They still have a small market share too which provides lots of future upside, and they have a variety of new products in the pipeline that people are itching to purchase.
> 
> I'd definitely consider selling some of my AAPL, but I just can't find a reason too yet, other than to perhaps buy a few iPad 3's in a few weeks


If you compare desktops with similar values, you'll actually see that macs are slower...and FYI If you actually know anything about computers, you would know that it doesn't take a genius to maintain windows. I've had my desktop and my server running non stop for 3 years and haven't had any problems with it. So I'm pretty sure that windows 'just works'.


----------



## jcgd

But Macs just work. The first time. PCs have always been and will always be a PITA. Just because there are handfuls of people that know their way around a PC so well that any issue is non-issue doesn't mean it is fantastic. As a casual user of a PC my computers last about 4 months on average before they bog down and go to hell. When they aren't starting up they are frozen or installing spam.

The Mac is just as it was the day we bought it.


----------



## MrMatt

jcgd said:


> But Macs just work. The first time. PCs have always been and will always be a PITA. Just because there are handfuls of people that know their way around a PC so well that any issue is non-issue doesn't mean it is fantastic. As a casual user of a PC my computers last about 4 months on average before they bog down and go to hell. When they aren't starting up they are frozen or installing spam.
> 
> The Mac is just as it was the day we bought it.


Not in my experience, I've sat down at Macs and crashed them, though to be fair that was years ago, but I don't buy this "never crash" thing, it is ALWAYS possible for a computer to crash.

Personally I've ben on Debian GNU/Linux for well over a decade and I'm happy.
It works, it doesn't suddenly break, software upgrades and installs are trivially easy, and don't require reboots.


I've had less trouble getting printers and scanners to work with my Linux system than with the various versions of Windows out there. Most things are just plug and play.

The biggest issue I've had recently is my Creative Zen, I had to switch from gnomad2 to Banshee to load music onto it.


----------



## jcgd

I'm willing to bet that 70% or more of people that would every buy a computer would even know what Linux is or be willing to go download it. I get by on a PC just fine, but if I had to choose one for a desert island... well my laptop would only hold it's charge for 18 minutes so I'd go with a Mac.

Apple products are easy to use. Usually along the lines of turn on... use... done. PC it's more like turn on, make coffee, restart, warm coffee, fight with the damn thing for 53 minutes, get frustrated and give up, do the task on my iPhone anyway.

Hater will be haters.



(Not I'm questioning while I still use this cursed PC I'm still on)


----------



## dave2012

@mgr1397...

I have worked on computers full time since the late 70's as a software developer so I'm talking from a lot of my own experience in both worlds as a power user. Windows boxes do have to be maintained to keep them running at a decent clip. Some techs opt to reinstall once in a while to solve such issues. Some strip the OS down which helps (Dell boxes for example are loaded with bloatware which slow them down from the get go). For a typical user who just checks email and browses the web, or has a windows box as a file server they may be fine, but over time performance does suffer unless you keep on top of them. Even so, keeping the OS up to date usually means that the hardware can't handle the bloatware and hardware has to be replaced sooner then it should.

There sure are a lot of books and software on the market attempting to address this popular problem!

jcgd's comments are bang on with what most people experience with Windows PC's. A good majority just don't realize that their computer is slow. I think a lot of people just get used to having to wait at every click of the mouse and don't realize the amount of time they end up wasting. Ok for the home user perhaps, but wasted time = money for businesses.

Just my take on things having been in both worlds thats all... thus my interest and confidence in AAPL.


----------



## dave2012

We run Quickbooks on a few of our MAC's using VMware Fusion/XP.

Also run Linux to replicate our web server (held elsewhere). Easy peasy on MAC OSX.


----------



## indexxx

dave2012 said:


> I've been workings with PC's/Windows for over 25 years and MAC's for the last 4 years in both office and home. Vastly different experiences, and I wished I had ditched Windows for MAC OS X years ago.
> 
> MAC's cost me a bit more upfront but in the long run they are so much more reliable then PC's (Windows), I don't have to replace them every few years because they get so incredibly slow, and I save a TON of time not having to maintain them. I also don't have to put up with the tons of bloatware that they typically ship with. My budget for hardware and maintenance is much less than when we used Windows, and I don't have to deal with slow computers all the time.
> 
> MAC OS just works. Sure like anything else there is no guarantee 100% of people won't have an issue, but on average PC's/Windows have a poor reputation compared to MAC. Talk to people who have extensive experience with both. How often do we hear of people still running Windows XP? (me included on my MAC running Quickbooks) because of all the issues with new releases of Windows. When a new release of MAC OSX comes out, users upgrade without worrying about the company having done a whole rewrite that introduces another 3 or 4 years of bugs and frustrations.
> 
> I give it to Microsoft though... they have kept a huge population employed over the years keeping their machines running!
> 
> We still have a few Windows boxes in the office but they haven't been used in some time since they are just sooooo sllllooowww. Maybe if we loaded Windows 95 they would speed up... better yet DOS!
> 
> I've become a huge Apple fan over the last few years since we decided to made the switch (and AAPL has since become my biggest holding) because of my experiences with Apple products (Mac Pros, iMac, iPhone, Macbooks), and I want to invest in a company I really believe in. They still have a small market share too which provides lots of future upside, and they have a variety of new products in the pipeline that people are itching to purchase.
> 
> I'd definitely consider selling some of my AAPL, but I just can't find a reason too yet, other than to perhaps buy a few iPad 3's in a few weeks


Agree with everything in this post.


----------



## m3s

People are misinterpreting the "just works" saying I think. It's not that they never fail, it's that they are set up to "just work" out of the box Windows has to be constantly tweaked and set up, which some people enjoy but others just don't think it's worth the time. 

I can always get something to work on Windows, but then I discovered how nice it is when the Apple "just works" on its own. There are a lot of things Windows does that annoys me now, but after sorting it out myself after every new version/re-installation, now I just don't bother anymore


----------



## Dmoney

For every minute you save on a Mac, you lose 10 minutes of your life with the frustration of not having a *$%*#@ delete key.

So used to PC keyboard, that the rare time I'm on a Mac I just want to smash it against a wall.


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## dave2012

Mac delete = Windows backspace (backward delete)
Mac fn+delete = Windows delete (forward delete)


----------



## GOB

The "it just works" phrase associated with Apple products is not meant to be taken literally. Of course Mac software crashes on occasion and of course the hardware sometimes fails. 

What it means is that in general, things are simple and intuitive. Plug in a printer and you don't have to search to download a driver - it just works. No need to worry about constantly updating your antivirus software - it just works. Most of the touch gestures on iPhone and iPad do exactly what you'd expect them to do - it just works. There are two versions of OSX - one regular and one server, both fully featured, compared to NINE different versions of Windows 8 with various things included and excluded. Why does someone need to pick between nine versions of an operating system, and how does he know what he may need years into the future? It sounds simple (and it really is) but for some reason no other company can produce a simple straight forward experience like Apple can.

Take someone who has never used a computer before, and they will be far more adept using a Mac than a Windows machine. It's as simple as that, and that's an extremely strong selling point and a big reason why Mac sales are surging. When I bring this up, Windows diehards say Macs are for morons who can't use something more complex. I ask them what other products they consider better because they more difficult and frustrating to use. They then shut up...


----------



## Lephturn

GOB said:


> Take someone who has never used a computer before, and they will be far more adept using a Mac than a Windows machine. It's as simple as that, and that's an extremely strong selling point and a big reason why Mac sales are surging. When I bring this up, Windows diehards say Macs are for morons who can't use something more complex. I ask them what other products they consider better because they more difficult and frustrating to use. They then shut up...


Years ago I would agree but these days not so much. OSX and Windows 7 are quite equivalent. My Mom got a Mac last week - she's called me about 8 times trying to figure things out. Granted it's usually something quick like "how do you eject a DVD?" (who would ever think that answer is to drag it into the trash?) but still it's been a pain. The only big advantage is that you get your Macs from Apple so they control the experience and don't let them get bloated up with crap. Microsoft has started doing this as well with their stores - if you buy a PC from Microsoft as one of the "signature" line they "just work" same as a Mac. Overall for newbies I'd say the Mac is likely easier, but if you've used Windows for years it's not that easy to switch. Mac OSX still drives me nuts, but that's just me.

It will be interesting to see how this changes as Apple's market share goes up and Microsoft brings out Windows 8 and it's new more device-like interface.

Anyway - all of this is pretty much irrelevant in terms of Apple's business. It's all about the iPhone, iPad, and soon the iTV.


----------



## GOB

Of course it's difficult to switch after years of using Windows - it was the same for me. Then when I entered the workforce and had to go back to Windows at work it was an absolute nightmare.

I haven't used or seen Windows 8 so I guess I can't comment on it. What I will note is that it seems to be a common theme to say "<competing product> that is coming out is going to be as good or better than <Apple product>" and it rarely if ever turns out to be the case. 

An aside - I think the standard right click - eject still works as well, though I haven't had to use a disc in years.


----------



## Dmoney

dave2012 said:


> Mac delete = Windows backspace (backward delete)
> Mac fn+delete = Windows delete (forward delete)


I find this unacceptable. 

Just a force of habit. Maybe 1 in every 1,000 words I type is on a Mac, and when I'm on Macs, I'm not a happy person.


----------



## dave2012

We too had some learning curve moving to MAC but that was to be expected, and wasn't a big deal. I think the only major issues were with converting some outlook files to Mac mail which did have a few hickups (Little Machines O2M).

Eject a DVD on MAC? I just press the very upper (eject) button on my keyboard (or right click on the device).

I agree with Lephturn that its all currently about iPad, iPhone and perhaps the iTV although we don't know much about that yet. But those devices bring new people into the rest of the MAC world once they've had a bite of the fruit.


----------



## indexxx

Dmoney said:


> For every minute you save on a Mac, you lose 10 minutes of your life with the frustration of not having a *$%*#@ delete key.
> 
> So used to PC keyboard, that the rare time I'm on a Mac I just want to smash it against a wall.


what dave2012 said... delete/fn delete. And for every 1/2 second you hypothetically save on a PC by having that extra key, you lose three hours a month running maintenance, anti-everything, and defrags.


----------



## indexxx

Lephturn said:


> Years ago I would agree but these days not so much. OSX and Windows 7 are quite equivalent. My Mom got a Mac last week - she's called me about 8 times trying to figure things out. Granted it's usually something quick like "how do you eject a DVD?" (who would ever think that answer is to drag it into the trash?) but still it's been a pain. The only big advantage is that you get your Macs from Apple so they control the experience and don't let them get bloated up with crap. Microsoft has started doing this as well with their stores - if you buy a PC from Microsoft as one of the "signature" line they "just work" same as a Mac. Overall for newbies I'd say the Mac is likely easier, but if you've used Windows for years it's not that easy to switch. Mac OSX still drives me nuts, but that's just me.
> 
> It will be interesting to see how this changes as Apple's market share goes up and Microsoft brings out Windows 8 and it's new more device-like interface.
> 
> Anyway - all of this is pretty much irrelevant in terms of Apple's business. It's all about the iPhone, iPad, and soon the iTV.


Was this your mom's first computer, or had she owned a PC before? If it's her first, of course she'd have questions (likely far fewer than a PC as a first computer) and if it's not her first, then there is a learning curve, like anything else. I was hesitant about getting a Mac after several years on PC- but a few YouTube and Apple videos put me at ease, so I took the plunge two years ago, and I found my MacBook and OS FAR easier to understand and navigate, and much more enjoyable, after about a week than any time I'd spent on my Toshiba. One small thing I miss- right-clicking on the desktop and having the ability to instantly create a Word document. And I did like the Windows Pictures viewer. But man, what bogged-down doorstops both my PCs became after a couple of years; no amount of cleaning, defragging (sure don't miss THAT task) or anything else helped- and constantly monitoring spyware/virus software etc. Blah!


----------



## mgr1397

I'm sorry but being a student studying computer engineering it just boggles my mind on how people view Macs. First of all there's a big difference between software and hardware. If something crashes like a program, you blame Microsoft. If you're hardware fails, you don't blame Microsoft. I've been running a 15tb home server for the last 3 years, obviously I've had hardware failures, yet I'm still running Windows on it. 

I'm not saying apple makes bad products or anything, it's just I hate they're marketing strategy which in general captured the public by saying 'Macs/Apple products just work'. Tell me something an iPhone can do that an Android phone can't?... The list goes on.


----------



## GOB

You're of the age where features and specs are the most important thing. This is not the case for people who just want to use their devices as opposed to constantly maintaining them. Maybe an Android can do everything an iPhone can, I don't know. But can it do everything as easily and intuitively? Positively not. Do they last as long? In general, no. 

Most people who get full use out of their Androids have to "root" them. Do you think the average person wants to or has time or knows how to do this? An iPhone can do what 90% of people want right out of the box. Not everyone is a computer engineer or a tech geek - most people want maximal functionality with minimal effort. In that case, iOS >>>> Android, and Apple >>>> anyone else, hands down. That's why they sell so well.


----------



## jcgd

All these good points about Macs don't only apply to Macs. They apply to all Apple products. Anyone remember trying to use a mp3 player before the iPod? OMG, it was a battle. Now you just plug it into your computer for a few minutes and then press the square button, or spin the dial. 1, 2, 3, done.

IPhone is the same way. "Hey, how do I?" "Square button". "How do I?" "Square button twice", etc.

Apple sells a crap tonne of their products because the products are sweet, they service is sweet, and they are Apple. They have a huge moat of sparkling fairy dust. A huge company with addictive, shiny, pure white, glass products that work as soon as you rip them out of the box and do everything you can think of in the way you would naturally do them. 

If Apple doesn't keep doing what they are doing, for sure they may come down. But, currently they are a huge company that is executing perfectly with a perfect product. 

Hating on a company with huge issues at hand makes sense, but IMO people who are fighting Apple have probably been doing so for 10 years and are just hating to hate. Ex. I hate Lululemon out of principle and respect for having a population that doesn't wear sweat pants daily. Not because Lulu isn't a good company, because it is.


----------



## ddkay

indexxx said:


> what dave2012 said... delete/fn delete. And for every 1/2 second you hypothetically save on a PC by having that extra key, you lose three hours a month running maintenance, anti-everything, and defrags.


Uh, I haven't run defrag in over 3 years and my computers are fine. I also use SSD boot drives on everything except our mac. We have a 2010 mac mini running Snow Leopard OS with a mechancial disk and everything about it is slow as hell, I was going to upgrade that to SSD, but it's like a 42 step process. Not worth the effort unless someone paid me. It's also 3 generations old now and easier to justify buying a new one (probably Apple's plan all along by making memory/hdd inconveniently accessible). The product lifecycle on consumer technology and especially mac's is a joke...


----------



## buhhy

indexxx said:


> what dave2012 said... delete/fn delete. And for every 1/2 second you hypothetically save on a PC by having that extra key, you lose three hours a month running maintenance, anti-everything, and defrags.


I don't know anyone who runs defrag ever, it's mostly a useless operation, and has nothing to do with which OS is used. OSX needs defrag as much as Windows does.

Also, Windows 7 is very secure. Very secure.

Windows 7 also auto-detects and downloads drivers.

There's nothing OSX does better than windows 7, except maybe looking prettier.


----------



## financialnoob

Apple makes many fine products, but they really aren't ideal for a business environment yet. Maybe for a small business, but they really haven't put much thought/time/energy into the enterprise market.

That may change with their new CEO, who has a background with IBM apparently, but I think we're getting a bit carried away here with the talk about business integration. Maybe on an individual work station level, but they're nowhere close on the back-end network solutions required for larger businesses.


----------



## andrewf

Dmoney said:


> For every minute you save on a Mac, you lose 10 minutes of your life with the frustration of not having a *$%*#@ delete key.
> 
> So used to PC keyboard, that the rare time I'm on a Mac I just want to smash it against a wall.


I think you'll find that people will make this out to be a flaw of yours and not the Mac. All hail Mac.


----------



## andrewf

GOB said:


> I ask them what other products they consider better because they more difficult and frustrating to use. They then shut up...


People who buy SLRs over Fisher Price My First Camera? But right--specs don't matter.


----------



## GOB

You're back, and your reading comprehension is still lacking. Specs matter to an extent, but they are not the be all and end all. Once a computer's specs can satisfy the basic requirements of most users, other factors like UI, product life, customer service and satisfaction etc. obviously become more important. 

To use your camera example:

Mac: 12MP SLR, excellent image quality, extremely easy to use, light and small
PC: 15MP SLR, excellent image quality, complicated and difficult to use, heavy and big, a few extra features most people will never figure out how to use

The PC camera has better specs, so it's always the better choice, right? Face the facts, you hate Apple just because it's Apple. They can come out with anything and you'll bash it. I hope you realize almost every computer related device you use has been heavily influenced by Apple more than any other company. Yet you act like they exist solely based on fads and shiny products - your blindness is sad.

Don't be angry, just buy AAPL and smile - like I told you to $200 ago


----------



## m3s

Marketers try to pump out the highest specs possible because some people are obsessed with specs. You end up with poor characteristics because it is designed for high specs rather than optimal end user experience. All specs have a downside so there are benefits to not having the highest specs. Sometimes battery life, weight, cost, reliability, heat etc depending on what it is - highest specs are not be all end all. Designing the overall package to work together can have more noticeable performance than those few extra specs as well. The specs are often limited in the real world by components/factors people don't even compare.


----------



## GOB

^Exactly

Apple's competitors use meaningless specs as a marketing tool, just as much as Apple uses design and as one of theirs. If you consider the total package, Apple wins by a landslide and the numbers are beginning to reflect it.


----------



## jcgd

andrewf said:


> People who buy SLRs over Fisher Price My First Camera? But right--specs don't matter.


People buy Canon over Nixon even though one can argue Canon costs more for the same specs. You pay 10% more for the Canon brand name, not always better specs.

Apple charges more for less, but people buy it because it's Apple, and because it does what it's supposed to do for years without fail.


----------



## indexxx

jcgd said:


> People buy Canon over Nixon even though one can argue Canon costs more for the same specs. You pay 10% more for the Canon brand name, not always better specs.
> 
> Apple charges more for less, but people buy it because it's Apple, and because it does what it's supposed to do for years without fail.


I don't see that with Apple you're getting less- specwise? If my Mac can run better, faster, and longer having less memory or a smaller drive, and be a more enjoyable, integrated experience for my purposes, for years without fail, resulting in repair savings etc, than that to me is MORE value, not less.

PS- I'm a Nikon shooter.


----------



## jcgd

At index,

I don't really see how you get less, but others were saying Apple doesn't have TOTL specs and I don't know the facts so I just went with it. I'm just saying that Apple tech is seemingly superior in performance with whatever numbers it boasts.

I use Nikon too. I figured as long as the cameras were comparable, I'd save my cash for glass.


----------



## indexxx

jcgd said:


> At index,
> 
> I don't really see how you get less, but others were saying Apple doesn't have TOTL specs and I don't know the facts so I just went with it. I'm just saying that Apple tech is seemingly superior in performance with whatever numbers it boasts.
> 
> I use Nikon too. I figured as long as the cameras were comparable, I'd save my cash for glass.


Off topic- but there is a saying in the photography world along the lines that Canon is governed by marketers, and Nikon is governed by photographers.

In the past, Nikon was the better maker but the main reason Canon got so huge was that in the past, when autofocus came about, Nikon's AF system was not as fast as Canon's for sports, so that's why you see all those Canon shooters at sporting events (no longer an issue as Nikon's AF systems are amazing). Read more on Ken Rockwell's site under Nikon vs Canon.


----------



## Eclectic12

GOB said:


> [ ... ]
> 
> I hope you realize almost every computer related device you use has been heavily influenced by Apple more than any other company.
> 
> [ ... ]


That's hard to say ... like most other computer related companies, Apple lifted ideas from competitors, especially Xerox.

Then too - Apple was having limited success until IBM (on something like their fourth go-round) convinced business that small computers were worthwhile.


Cheers


----------



## GOB

That's besides the point. Invention does not equal innovation. Apple is undisputedly the most innovative company and has been for a long time, though they do have their share of patents as well. My statement is fact - Apple has influenced technology more than anyone else. 

The Xerox story is misconstrued by almost everyone as Apple stealing from Xerox - not the case. The two companies had an agreement that Apple would be allowed to visit PARC and were developing a GUI that would incorporate some of their elements, and in return Xerox could purchase some pre-IPO stock of AAPL. Xerox later tried to sue unsuccessfully - Apple did not steal from them. It's one thing to have inventions as prototypes in a lab without knowing how to apply them into something useful, and another to innovate these inventions into a useable product. Apple is a master at the latter, and was from the dawn of the computer age.

Back on topic - looking forward to the iPad 3 launch this week. There should be some nice movement in the stock one way or another, but a few months down the road when the sales numbers come out be ready for another rise.


----------



## indexxx

interesting article from Seeking Alpha from november- he predicts Aapl as low as 85 this year. Guess the guy has lightly sauteed and eaten his words...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/310800-the-apple-bubble-is-ready-to-burst


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> Back on topic - looking forward to the iPad 3 launch this week.


Some are already speculating that 100 million of them would sell this year.


----------



## Causalien

if iPad 3's spec is better than Asus transformer prime. Consider me bought.


----------



## buhhy

So what do you guys think about the "impending" Apple product announcement dip? Sell and rebuy in on Wednesday? Or is today's 2% dip the extent of the drop?


----------



## dave2012

Buying opportunity? 

While we're waiting for Wednesday...

Keeping up to date on the iPad 3: http://www.macrumors.com/

Love some of the concept videos (this one for iPhone 5): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4gZCmyO464


----------



## ddkay

Sometimes tops occur on good news


----------



## indexxx

buhhy said:


> So what do you guys think about the "impending" Apple product announcement dip? Sell and rebuy in on Wednesday? Or is today's 2% dip the extent of the drop?


Stupid me placed a market order the night before and bought at $545... but only a couple of extra shares to add to my position. I just look at it as dollar cost averaging.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> You're back, and your reading comprehension is still lacking. Specs matter to an extent, but they are not the be all and end all. Once a computer's specs can satisfy the basic requirements of most users, other factors like UI, product life, customer service and satisfaction etc. obviously become more important.
> 
> To use your camera example:
> 
> Mac: 12MP SLR, excellent image quality, extremely easy to use, light and small
> PC: 15MP SLR, excellent image quality, complicated and difficult to use, heavy and big, a few extra features most people will never figure out how to use
> 
> The PC camera has better specs, so it's always the better choice, right? Face the facts, you hate Apple just because it's Apple. They can come out with anything and you'll bash it. I hope you realize almost every computer related device you use has been heavily influenced by Apple more than any other company. Yet you act like they exist solely based on fads and shiny products - your blindness is sad.
> 
> Don't be angry, just buy AAPL and smile - like I told you to $200 ago


I see it a bit differently
Apple makes point and shoot cameras, sure they're easy to use, but you're locked into their limited feature set.
SLRs are bigger and more complicated with options most people will never bother to learn. 

It doesn't mean one is better than the other, just that they're targetted at different audiences.

As far as "ease of use" I find SLRs much easier to use than the typical cameras. If you want to change the ISO, exposure compensation, flash behaviour, shutter time, just push the button or turn the dia.
Doing that on a P&S necessitates navigating menus, it's slow and painful, not very easy to use.

Apple has been very successful at nicely packaging technology and presenting it to people in a non scary way. They've never been "intuitive" they just kept repeating it until people started to believe them.

That doesn't mean they're a bad company, they've also managed to effectively restrict choice and keep it simple, but keep customers happy.
Samsung released a whole range of products from small smartphones to the Note to tablets. Apple has a cell line and a tablet line, and only really one latest product at a time.


----------



## indexxx

MrMatt said:


> I see it a bit differently
> Apple makes point and shoot cameras, sure they're easy to use, but you're locked into their limited feature set.
> SLRs are bigger and more complicated with options most people will never bother to learn.
> 
> It doesn't mean one is better than the other, just that they're targetted at different audiences.
> 
> As far as "ease of use" I find SLRs much easier to use than the typical cameras. If you want to change the ISO, exposure compensation, flash behaviour, shutter time, just push the button or turn the dia.
> Doing that on a P&S necessitates navigating menus, it's slow and painful, not very easy to use.


Not sure I agree that Apple has a limited feature set; besides, as any good photographer knows, the camera you use makes almost no difference to the quality of the images... but as you point out, the ergonomics and functionality do make all the difference to a true photographer. I feel Apple wins here as well, as much for physical designs as for OS and implementation.


----------



## GOB

Some profit taking combined with a bearish turn in the market. Looking to buy more stock and LEAPs around the $500 mark

I'd love another "disappointing" product launch followed by record sales, just like the iPhone 4S


----------



## GOB

MrMatt said:


> I see it a bit differently
> Apple makes point and shoot cameras, sure they're easy to use, but you're locked into their limited feature set.
> SLRs are bigger and more complicated with options most people will never bother to learn.
> 
> It doesn't mean one is better than the other, just that they're targetted at different audiences.
> 
> As far as "ease of use" I find SLRs much easier to use than the typical cameras. If you want to change the ISO, exposure compensation, flash behaviour, shutter time, just push the button or turn the dia.
> Doing that on a P&S necessitates navigating menus, it's slow and painful, not very easy to use.
> 
> Apple has been very successful at nicely packaging technology and presenting it to people in a non scary way. They've never been "intuitive" they just kept repeating it until people started to believe them.
> 
> That doesn't mean they're a bad company, they've also managed to effectively restrict choice and keep it simple, but keep customers happy.
> Samsung released a whole range of products from small smartphones to the Note to tablets. Apple has a cell line and a tablet line, and only really one latest product at a time.


You're correct that Apple focuses on a select few products, because you cannot perfect hundreds of different products and designs and still make money. Steve Jobs was a big proponent of laser sharp focus. 

Samsung = jack of all trades, master of none. Apple masters what they do, and if that meets the needs of billions of people I think that's the best business model to pursue, and the results are supporting that belief. Think about it - what percentage of people actually use computers/phones/tablets for purposes that Apple devices cannot fulfill? I'd say 5, 10% max, and the number is shrinking every day. 

Apple devices are extremely intuitive, by the way. I don't think anybody can argue with that. The frustrations usually come from people used to using (non-intuitive) PCs - of course there will be a learning curve during the switch. 

The limited feature set of Apple products are drastically overstated. My knowledge and use of computers is above average and there is nothing I need to do that a Mac cannot handle. Most of the existing problems are compatibility issues which are being resolved as Mac continues to gain market share. Switching to Mac years ago has saved me a huge amount of time and frustration.


----------



## jcgd

I've noticed Apple stock has been dropping the last few days. When would you guys recommend getting in if we want to?


----------



## buhhy

GOB said:


> You're correct that Apple focuses on a select few products, because you cannot perfect hundreds of different products and designs and still make money. Steve Jobs was a big proponent of laser sharp focus.
> 
> Samsung = jack of all trades, master of none. Apple masters what they do, and if that meets the needs of billions of people I think that's the best business model to pursue, and the results are supporting that belief. Think about it - what percentage of people actually use computers/phones/tablets for purposes that Apple devices cannot fulfill? I'd say 5, 10% max, and the number is shrinking every day.
> 
> Apple devices are extremely intuitive, by the way. I don't think anybody can argue with that. The frustrations usually come from people used to using (non-intuitive) PCs - of course there will be a learning curve during the switch.
> 
> The limited feature set of Apple products are drastically overstated. My knowledge and use of computers is above average and there is nothing I need to do that a Mac cannot handle. Most of the existing problems are compatibility issues which are being resolved as Mac continues to gain market share. Switching to Mac years ago has saved me a huge amount of time and frustration.


I don't believe Apple products are any more intuitive than other products. The Apple sense of "intuitive" is to limit options, which is more easy to use than intuitive. Apple products feel intuitive because they have been immensely popular, and most people have used one already.

I'm in software engineering, and after 3 years of owning a macbook pro, I'm gonna buy a windows laptop next. OSX irks me to no end, and windows just feels more efficient to use. Trackpad is nice yes, the OS is fancy, but that's the extent of it, it's not suitable for power users.


----------



## rusty23

buhhy said:


> I don't believe Apple products are any more intuitive than other products. The Apple sense of "intuitive" is to limit options, which is more easy to use than intuitive. Apple products feel intuitive because they have been immensely popular, and most people have used one already.
> 
> I'm in software engineering, and after 3 years of owning a macbook pro, I'm gonna buy a windows laptop next. OSX irks me to no end, and windows just feels more efficient to use. Trackpad is nice yes, the OS is fancy, but that's the extent of it, it's not suitable for power users.



i agree i bought my first macbook pro and iphone 2 (then upgraded to 3g) backin 08. At the time they were the best for mobile computing and for smartphone. 4 years later the iphone and now ipad os is still basically the same with very tweaks but nothing awe inspiring like it was 4 years ago.


----------



## Causalien

unix is not powerful enough?


----------



## gibor365

Causalien said:


> unix is not powerful enough?


use the most powerful and stable - VAX/VMS


----------



## dave2012

Causalien said:


> unix is not powerful enough?


Thats what I was thinging. Any flavor on Unix blows Windows out of the water for development...


----------



## Spudd

Gibor, you rock.


----------



## ddkay

Printing this one out and framing it: Why Apple Stock Is a Better Investment Than a House


----------



## Causalien

iPad3: Please be the mobile pad I have been dreaming of using in cafes that doesn't destroy my eyesight.


----------



## blin10

ddkay said:


> Printing this one out and framing it: Why Apple Stock Is a Better Investment Than a House


that guy is an idiot, why talk about what ifs? why stop there? what if you bought microsoft in 1996 you would make way more then investing in apple, etc, etc.... and what if you invested your house money into apple and it went bankrupt ? it almost did too


----------



## Jungle

A lot of what GOB says makes sense. I've read over 500 pages of Steve Job's book and what he says is matching up..

Every since I've read his book my mind is going crazy with ideas. In ways I can relate to a lot of the way he was and the things he did. 

Steve Jobs seems like an idol to me right now but I just can't get my self to buy the stock at these prices. And I have concern of the future of Apple without Jobs, after reading how intutive he was and a master of making people do things beyond their limits.


----------



## blin10

Jungle said:


> A lot of what GOB says makes sense. I've read over 500 pages of Steve Job's book and what he says is matching up..
> 
> Every since I've read his book my mind is going crazy with ideas. In ways I can relate to a lot of the way he was and the things he did.
> 
> Steve Jobs seems like an idol to me right now but I just can't get my self to buy the stock at these prices.* And I have concern of the future of Apple without Jobs, after reading how intutive he was and a master of making people do things beyond their limits.*


apple might be better off without him, apple is worth more then google+msft together so it has the most briliant minds working there right now... if anything fresh minds will take it to the next level


----------



## Jungle

Yes that next level is what will keep Apple growing, they have revolutionalized the last 14 years can they keep it going?

Apple is extraordinary. Everything is better with them.

Jobs turned product design away 100 times until they made it better. This what may have made products better and better. Telling people they can do the impossible. 

Apple was the first electronics company to build a "brand" lifestyle attached to products.
The computers are some of the best, they controlled the hardware and software ensuring a perfect package. 
To integrate and change the music industry (steve jobs on itunes and the music industry giants and artists who were getting ripped off by napster)
To lead the cell phone design because as Jobs said, everything else was ****. (his wording)
To simplify things, making everything very simple and easy to use.
Making the quality of everything a+, including the guts that you do not see. 
To integrate a package that is not compatible with other software makers. (not doable by other companies) Mac+ iphone+ ipod + itunes = media / everything lifestyle

Truely amazing what this guy and his team have done..

Not to note what he did with Pixar making cartoon movies insanely profitable over the competition. 


I dunno man, Jobs is DEAD. RIP a hero for innovation.. to bad because the story is so extraordinary.


----------



## mgr1397

buhhy said:


> I don't believe Apple products are any more intuitive than other products. The Apple sense of "intuitive" is to limit options, which is more easy to use than intuitive. Apple products feel intuitive because they have been immensely popular, and most people have used one already.
> 
> I'm in software engineering, and after 3 years of owning a macbook pro, I'm gonna buy a windows laptop next. OSX irks me to no end, and windows just feels more efficient to use. Trackpad is nice yes, the OS is fancy, but that's the extent of it, it's not suitable for power users.


I don't think anyone in this conversation understands me except this guy.

Software/computer engineers know whats good


----------



## Causalien

!windows
I think we are off track here and turning this into an OS discussion. Yes, the general population will enjoy OSX more. Who cares about programming/producing. They just need computers to send instant messages. Perfect that and you got the consumers.


----------



## dave2012

I like this...

_A March survey by online retailer PriceGrabber.com says 42% of iPad owners plan to buy the next iPad as soon as it's released._


----------



## b_foot

dave2012 said:


> I like this...
> 
> _A March survey by online retailer PriceGrabber.com says 42% of iPad owners plan to buy the next iPad as soon as it's released._


Good time to short? I'm watching closely today.


----------



## andrewf

One wonders why 42% of people want to replace their current (presumably satisfactory) device with a device they don't know the features of, immediately upon its release.

How is that not irrational? Is the iPad 2 crap now that the 3 is (soon to be) released?


----------



## GOB

It means a good number of users are very happy with their iPads but want to upgrade to the best. In these early stages of tablet development, a year can represent quite a large step change in features and performance. For example the screen on iPad 3 will make a huge difference like it did on the iPhone 4. Is it irrational to upgrade from a perfectly well functioning device after just a year? Perhaps it is, and I personally wait at least two years (and don't yet own an iPad) between hardware upgrades. But rational or not, it bodes well for the shareholders. It should be noted that iPad users and Apple users in general have more disposale income than average so that also plays a factor. They are less concerned about penny pinching and more concerned about performance and experience. 

A note regarding Apple's poor hardware specs in relation to Android - hardware specs are not everything, as I have stated many times. The iPhone 4S blows everything else out of the water in most benchmarks and real world performance:

http://m.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/ios-three-times-faster-than-android-for-html5/18909

Android's superior hardware specs are simply a marketing tool for the ignorant, and do not translate to superior performance.


----------



## kcowan

andrewf said:


> One wonders why 42% of people want to replace their current (presumably satisfactory) device with a device they don't know the features of, immediately upon its release.
> 
> How is that not irrational? Is the iPad 2 crap now that the 3 is (soon to be) released?


The iPad HD will be for that extra video experience. Most current users should be happy with the iPad2.

(Buying intentions surveys are always unreliable.)


----------



## dave2012

andrewf said:


> One wonders why 42% of people want to replace their current (presumably satisfactory) device with a device they don't know the features of, immediately upon its release.
> 
> How is that not irrational? Is the iPad 2 crap now that the 3 is (soon to be) released?


Not at all. People simply pass on their iPad 1/2 to spouse or kids and get the new one with more features. If they didn't love their iPads there wouldn't be such a huge percentage willing to buy the next iteration. I'll likely do the same myself as then my wife will have her own and we won't have to share it 

Maybe the 42% in the survey is actually high, but regardless its very positive.


----------



## GOB

Causalien said:


> !windows
> I think we are off track here and turning this into an OS discussion. Yes, the general population will enjoy OSX more. Who cares about programming/producing. They just need computers to send instant messages. Perfect that and you got the consumers.


Exactly. Obvious what is intuitive to a computer engineer/programmer may not be intuitive to the general public. It's a niche market with very unique requirements - Apple no longer targets the niche, though I did notice a good third of electrical/computer engineers were sporting when I recently visited a university campus


----------



## m3s

Haha people used to pay more than the cost of an iPad every time a new Windows OS came out. Same reason some people buy new clothes every year, to have the latest/greatest. Microsoft is still churning software revenue from business everywhere. Apple software updates are free


----------



## jcgd

@jungle

What do you mean "at these prices"?


----------



## andrewf

mode3sour said:


> Haha people used to pay more than the cost of an iPad every time a new Windows OS came out. Same reason some people buy new clothes every year, to have the latest/greatest. Microsoft is still churning software revenue from business everywhere. Apple software updates are free


Windows releases were typically every several years, not annual. Windows licenses did not cost anywhere near what an iPad costs (just a statement of fact). Thirdly, it was very common for people to happily continue to use a Windows license for years. See XP. Honestly, OS improvements these days are pretty incremental. Yes, a small part of the market has large disposable incomes for whom the marginal performance improvement is worth shelling out $700 more over last year's model. I have to think the vast majority of it is motivated by hype and a culture of Mac cred in having the latest device (hence people who hate their lives enough to camp outside a store to buy a device 24 hours before everyone else). Kudos to Apple, but it still seems irrational to me. GOB's 2 year replacement cycle is more reasonable, and what I would expect a rational consumer to do.


----------



## dave2012

Live blog of the event... http://scribblelive.mobi/Event/Apple_presents_something_you_have_to_see_and_touch?theme=2228


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> Kudos to Apple, but it still seems irrational to me. GOB's 2 year replacement cycle is more reasonable, and what I would expect a rational consumer to do.


Since when have consumers been rational? Apple's success is a great example of how irrational people can become when it comes to consumption, but there are even more amazing ones. Just look at the popcorn studies conducted by Brian Wansink of Cornell: his team gave moviegoers buckets of very stale (five-day-old) popcorn; some of the moviegoers got medium-sized buckets and others got extra-large buckets. Wansink found that the people who got the extra-large buckets ate 53 percent more popcorn than those with the medium-sized buckets, even though the popcorn itself was barely edible. He's repeated the study a number of times in different states, always with the same results. A rational person would probably have avoided eating the popcorn altogether (unless he or she were really hungry), but the study shows that people will eat something if you put it in front of them, and they'll eat even more if you simply give them more--even if what they are eating tastes terrible. There's nothing rational about that; it's purely emotional and/or instinctual.


----------



## m3s

andrewf you're pulling at strawmen this whole thread. You're assuming those 42% bought an iPad2 last year, yet it's "more reasonable" to upgrade after a few years? That's great that people still use Windows XP... as are people still using iPad 1 (58% according to this likely biased survey) If you upgrade all the standard Windows and basic requirement like Office, it cost damn near the same (especially if you factor in new hardware replacement of a typical consumer) For many professionals, upgrading to Microsoft's latest/greatest is a must simply to be compatible in your industry (no backwards compatibility)

I've been trying to make a time lapse of 1000's of HD photos on my Windows 7 and it's been painful to say the least. Sure OSX doesn't let a nerd rearrange the 1's and 0's in his spare time, but it sure can do real world stuff a lot easier. I hate that I can't work on new cars myself, but I think cars have improved to those who don't like doing mechanical work in their spare time.


----------



## GOB

This is quite a substantial upgrade, especially for people with carriers that support 4G LTE. Apple does it right again - bring it out when it's feasible and doesn't kill battery life. I think your dig at Apple users is unnecessary - as mentioned before its no different than people buying new clothes every month or a new car every couple of years, or constantly upsizing their houses for no real reason. This consumer behavior is not unique to Apple. Perhaps in the tech field it is because Apple is the only company that consistently puts out desirable products. 

By the way, some Windows (and Office) licenses have sold in the $300-500 range, if I'm not mistaken. That's getting really close to the price of an iPad. It's funny how Apple is criticized for holding back on features when Microsoft does the same thing in order to sell $500 software.


----------



## brad

mode3sour said:


> Sure OSX doesn't let a nerd rearrange the 1's and 0's in his spare time, but it sure can do real world stuff a lot easier. I hate that I can't work on new cars myself, but I think cars have improved to those who don't like doing mechanical work in their spare time.


Actually since OSX runs on Unix, and Unix is readily available through Terminal, plenty of nerds use Macs to do their nerdy stuff through the command line interface without ever using the OSX GUI. 

I'm not sure I buy the argument about professionals needing the latest Windows operating system. My company still uses XP and I don't think we're slated to convert everyone over to Windows 7 until Microsoft pulls the plug on security updates to XP (which is in April 2014). Change is painful and a huge drag on productivity, so many big corporations and government agencies put off operating system upgrades as long as possible.


----------



## Causalien

GOB said:


> Exactly. Obvious what is intuitive to a computer engineer/programmer may not be intuitive to the general public. It's a niche market with very unique requirements - Apple no longer targets the niche, though I did notice a good third of electrical/computer engineers were sporting when I recently visited a university campus


What were they sporting? I haven't visited a campus in a long time.

I thought the intuitive thing for Engineer to do would be sporting an OSX based computer due to Unix. (I am assuming that campuses are moving the discipline to more online based programming language) So, on both aesthetic and engineering front, Mac fits the bill. 

The resell market for iPads are very good. I think most people will be selling their used ones and buying the iPad 3 soon. So the actual cost of upgrade from an ipad2 is probably about $90. While upgrading from an iPad 1 is around $200.

What hasn't been widely discussed is the worth of the resale market to the demand of ISomething. With a strong resale market that retains the original prices of the unit so well, new adopters are not afraid of buying new products. Causing competition with older products a to disappear. This might be a very good work around to an age old problem.


----------



## GOB

Causalien said:


> What were they sporting? I haven't visited a campus in a long time.
> 
> I thought the intuitive thing for Engineer to do would be sporting an OSX based computer due to Unix. (I am assuming that campuses are moving the discipline to more online based programming language) So, on both aesthetic and engineering front, Mac fits the bill.
> 
> The resell market for iPads are very good. I think most people will be selling their used ones and buying the iPad 3 soon. So the actual cost of upgrade from an ipad2 is probably about $90. While upgrading from an iPad 1 is around $200.
> 
> What hasn't been widely discussed is the worth of the resale market to the demand of ISomething. With a strong resale market that retains the original prices of the unit so well, new adopters are not afraid of buying new products. Causing competition with older products a to disappear. This might be a very good work around to an age old problem.


Excellent points. The resale market is so strong that an upgrade to a new device is often just a few dollars and could even turn a net profit. Completely forgot about that side of it in my response to Andrew. It may also be a reason why we see the lineups for Apple devices - many people may be selling their old phones before the launch to maximize on their sale price and therefore need the new one ASAP. There have often been weeks of waiting if you miss out on launch day. I think my total cost of upgrading my phone was zero, and that was a two generation old device I switched from. Of course, a new three year contract was required, but I would have a contract anyway. 

Regarding Macs on campus, a lot of MacBook Pros and Airs (hard to tell the difference from a distance). The amount of students with Macs is just mind-boggling. Add the iPad and e-textbook market and it's just going to explode.


----------



## m3s

Causalien said:


> What hasn't been widely discussed is the worth of the resale market to the demand of ISomething. With a strong resale market that retains the original prices of the unit so well, new adopters are not afraid of buying new products.


I brought this up a long time ago and got burned at the stake. I sold my 3Gs and upgraded to 4G for very little (I wanted an unlocked one from factory, rather than jailbroken) Because of the market in Europe, I could have actually sold the 4G and got the S for free. The resale is very strong because iSomething are supported for years, while Androids are quickly obsolete


----------



## brad

It's interesting that Apple has decided to keep selling the iPad2 instead of retiring it now that the new model (not called an iPad3, just "the new iPad") is out. That seems pretty smart, since the price for the iPad2 will bring it within reach of another few hundred million people (keep in mind that they've already sold 172 million of these things) who lusted after one but couldn't afford it or couldn't justify the price -- think of it as a recruitment strategy.


----------



## ddkay

Hahaha, they basically released an iPad 2S!! Again without AWS support. Well that's good, it was way overhyped anyway.


----------



## Causalien

All I care about is retina display. Otherwise I'd just stick with an Iphone that continues to murder my eyes.


----------



## jcgd

What's the issue peeps are having with the screens? I look at mine for 2+ hours a day (iPhone) and I find it just fine.


----------



## GOB

ddkay said:


> Hahaha, they basically released an iPad 2S!! Again without AWS support. Well that's good, it was way overhyped anyway.


Are you being sarcastic, or just clueless?

Call it whatever you want, this is just going to go like any other Apple product launch:

Pre-launch: hype
Launch: "disappointment" (often for stupid reasons stemming from crazy rumours)
Aftermath: record sales and profits


----------



## ddkay

I guess you missed all the iPad 3 concept videos... if that's not setting the bar too high I don't know what is


----------



## GOB

That's exactly my point. That was not endorsed or influenced by Apple in any way. To base your expectations on a video dreamt up by somebody with no clue as to the technolgical or financial feasibility is ridiculous. The bar is always set too high by the rumour mill - not by Apple. Apple sets the bar in the real world.


----------



## andrewf

Continuing to sell the 2 at reduced price points makes the $100 net cost to upgrade seem incredible. Why would someone buy a year old device for the same as retail and not have to worry about your scuffs, scratches and dead skin cells (not to mention potential battery abuse)?


----------



## mgr1397

GOB said:


> That's exactly my point. That was not endorsed or influenced by Apple in any way. To base your expectations on a video dreamt up by somebody with no clue as to the technolgical or financial feasibility is ridiculous. The bar is always set too high by the rumour mill - not by Apple. Apple sets the bar in the real world.


People who actually know 'good' technology don't buy apple.


----------



## Causalien

jcgd said:


> What's the issue peeps are having with the screens? I look at mine for 2+ hours a day (iPhone) and I find it just fine.


Imagine 12 hour workdays... 7/24


----------



## GOB

mgr1397 said:


> People who actually know 'good' technology don't buy apple.


Wrong.

http://venturebeat.com/2010/05/31/g...curity-drop-windows-use-mac-or-linux-instead/

http://www.edibleapple.com/2012/02/02/mark-zuckerberg-and-all-of-facebook-it-seems-are-mac-users/

Arguably two of the leaders in the tech industry, apart from Apple themselves. Wait, let me guess - Google and Facebook are amateurs and your tech skills are superior those of their employees...right? Any other weak arguments you care to put forth?


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Continuing to sell the 2 at reduced price points makes the $100 net cost to upgrade seem incredible. Why would someone buy a year old device for the same as retail and not have to worry about your scuffs, scratches and dead skin cells (not to mention potential battery abuse)?


They won't, but they will buy $50-100 lower than retail, which nets them a very cheap iPad 2 and lets the seller get his significant upgrade for about $200. Considering how much money is spent on $4 lattes, designer clothing and granite countertops it doesn't seem all that unreasonable. Perhaps your impression of Apple users as solely image-conscious is wrong, and some don't mind a couple of scratches as long as the device works as intended. 

Just give it up - perhaps you aren't the typical consumer but you should by now understand how one behaves. And I hope you're not naive enough to think it's only Apple that takes advantage of this - it's called good business.


----------



## ddkay

US Justice Department Threatens Lawsuits against Apple, Publishers, Alleging Collusion Over E-Book Pricing -WSJ



> The Justice Department has warned Apple Inc. and five of the biggest U.S. publishers that it plans to sue them for allegedly colluding to raise the price of electronic books, according to people familiar with the matter.
> 
> Apple persuaded publishers to change how they price their e-books before the late Steve Jobs introduced the iPad in 2010.
> 
> Several of the parties have held talks to settle the antitrust case and head off a potentially damaging court battle, these people said. If successful, such a settlement could have wide-ranging repercussions for the industry, potentially leading to cheaper e-books for consumers. However, not every publisher is in settlement discussions.
> 
> The five publishers facing a potential suit are CBS Corp.'s Simon & Schuster Inc.; Lagardere SCA's Hachette Book Group; Pearson PLC's Penguin Group (USA); Macmillan, a unit of Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck GmbH; and HarperCollins Publishers Inc., a unit of News Corp., which also owns The Wall Street Journal.
> 
> Spokespeople for the five publishers and the Justice Department declined to comment. Apple, which introduced a new version of its iPad tablet Wednesday, declined to comment.
> 
> The case centers on Apple's move to change the way that publishers charged for e-books as it prepared to introduce its first iPad in early 2010. Traditionally, publishers sold books to retailers for roughly half of the recommended cover price. Under that "wholesale model," booksellers were then free to offer those books to customers for less than the cover price if they wished. Most physical books are sold using this model.
> 
> To build its early lead in e-books, Amazon Inc. sold many new best sellers at $9.99 to encourage consumers to buy its Kindle electronic readers. But publishers deeply disliked the strategy, fearing consumers would grow accustomed to inexpensive e-books and limit publishers' ability to sell pricier titles.
> 
> Publishers also worried that retailers such as Barnes & Noble Inc. would be unable to compete with Amazon's steep discounting, leaving just one big buyer able to dictate prices in the industry. In essence, they feared suffering the same fate as record companies at Apple's hands, when the computer maker's iTunes service became the dominant player by selling songs for 99 cents.
> 
> As Apple prepared to introduce its first iPad, the late Steve Jobs, then its chief executive, suggested moving to an "agency model," under which the publishers would set the price of the book and Apple would take a 30% cut. Apple also stipulated that publishers couldn't let rival retailers sell the same book at a lower price.
> 
> "We told the publishers, 'We'll go to the agency model, where you set the price, and we get our 30%, and yes, the customer pays a little more, but that's what you want anyway,'" Mr. Jobs was quoted as saying by his biographer, Walter Isaacson.
> 
> The publishers were then able to impose the same model across the industry, Mr. Jobs told Mr. Isaacson. "They went to Amazon and said, 'You're going to sign an agency contract or we're not going to give you the books,' " Mr. Jobs said.
> 
> The Justice Department believes that Apple and the publishers acted in concert to raise prices across the industry, and is prepared to sue them for violating federal antitrust laws, the people familiar with the matter said.
> 
> The publishers have denied acting jointly to raise prices. They have told investigators that the shift to agency pricing enhanced competition in the industry by allowing more electronic booksellers to thrive.
> 
> William Lynch, chief executive of Barnes & Noble, gave a deposition to the Justice Department in which he testified that abandoning the agency pricing model would effectively result in a single player gaining even more market share than it has today, according to people familiar with the testimony. A spokeswoman for Barnes & Noble declined to comment.
> 
> Prior to agency pricing, Amazon often sold best-selling digital books for less than it paid for them, a marketing stance that some publishers worried would make the emerging digital-books marketplace less appealing for other potential retailers. The publishers' argument that agency pricing increased competition hasn't persuaded the Justice Department, a person familiar with the matter said. Government lawyers have questioned how competition could have increased when prices went up. Amazon declined to comment.
> 
> It isn't clear if the talks will lead to a settlement or how many of the parties would sign on. One publishing executive familiar with the situation said that the talks have been going on for some time and "negotiations have taken many turns."
> 
> A second publishing executive said that "a settlement is being considered for pragmatic reasons but by no means are we close." This person said that there are significant legal costs associated with the probe. "You have to consider a settlement, whether you think it's fair or not," the person said.
> 
> Contracts such as Apple's prevent publishers from selling books to other buyers at a cheaper rate. Such terms, known as "most favored nation" clauses, have drawn the scrutiny of the Justice Department in recent years in the health-care industry because they can sometimes be used to hamper competition.
> 
> One idea floated by publishers to settle the case is to preserve the agency model but allow some discounts by booksellers, according to the people familiar with the matter.
> 
> Among the issues that the Justice Department has examined is the effort by three publishers involved in the probe to "window" e-books in late 2009, according to people familiar with the matter. That December, Simon & Schuster, HarperCollins and Hachette said they would delay the electronic publication of a certain number of titles for a limited time after the publication of the hardcover edition.
> 
> At the time, the publishers expressed concern that $9.99 digital best sellers represented a long-term threat to the future of the publishing business. The windowing efforts, however, gradually faded away.
> 
> The European Union has said it is also investigating the allegations. Several class-action lawsuits have been filed and consolidated in a New York federal court. Apple moved to dismiss the case this month, arguing it didn't coordinate with any publishers. "Apple's entry created new competition in eBook distribution and a vastly larger pool of eBook consumers," it wrote in its motion.
> 
> For publishers, digital-book revenue is still the fastest-growing segment of the business at a time when the sale of physical books is in decline. E-book sales more than doubled to $970 million in 2011, according to a survey of 77 publishers conducted by the Association of American Publishers. As more consumers migrate to dedicated e-readers and tablet reading devices, the number of consumers reading digitally will likely increase.
> 
> At the same time, there are fewer bookstores in which to sell physical books, highlighted by the liquidation last year of Borders Group Inc., once the country's second-largest book chain. In addition, the nation's largest bookstore chain, Barnes & Noble, has increasingly dedicated more of its space to nonbook-related items such as its popular line of educational toys and games.
> 
> It isn't the first time the Justice Department has taken action against Apple for allegedly colluding with other companies. In 2010, several technology companies agreed to settle Justice Department allegations that they colluded to hold down wages by improperly agreeing not to poach each other's employees.
> 
> The evidence that surfaced in that case, as well as an ongoing private class-action lawsuit that followed, showed Mr. Jobs as a prime mover behind that antipoaching agreement. Apple didn't admit to any wrongdoing.
> 
> Write to Thomas Catan at [email protected] and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg at [email protected]


----------



## indexxx

mgr1397 said:


> People who actually know 'good' technology don't buy apple.


What phishes and lives under a bridge?

TROLL!!


----------



## dave2012

@indexxx

Maybe not... I figured it out... http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?p=115220#post115220


----------



## Causalien

LOL oh the cock sure attitude of the young.


----------



## dave2012

AAPL pushing $540 today. Making enough to buy a ton of _New iPad_'s.

Still wonder where they came up with that name instead of iPad 3 though.

Is the next one going to be called the _Newest iPad_ or _Newer iPad_?


----------



## brad

They're probably just trying to get themselves out of a locked-in naming cycle (it would be kind of embarrassing a decade from now to be referring to a product as iPad12).

The iMac, MacBook, and MacBook Pro have been called by those names every year since they were first made, without using any version numbers, I assume Apple will similarly settle down to just calling the iPad the iPad as new versions are introduced to market. When you need support or you're trying to figure out which year's model you have, all you do is give them the serial number or look it up on their website. Those details are also available in the Settings section of the iPad itself.


----------



## indexxx

dave2012 said:


> AAPL pushing $540 today. Making enough to buy a ton of _New iPad_'s.
> 
> Still wonder where they came up with that name instead of iPad 3 though.
> 
> Is the next one going to be called the _Newest iPad_ or _Newer iPad_?


My guess is they wanted to send a subtle message of breaking from being 'Steve's baby' to being the start of the next phase of leadership, and to state that despite outward appearances, this is a new product with greater potential. Probably the next iteration will start a new naming trend for the line. Maybe they also wanted to cash in on people saying 'Hey, have you seen/tried the New iPad?'


----------



## andrewf

Not numbering the models would seem to take away some of the urgency of upgrading, no? You can always just say 'I have an iPad' and that'd be good enough for appearances. Apple generates a lot of value for shareholders through an accelerated upgrade cycle (to put it politely), and moving away from encouraging that behaviour seems odd to me.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> Not numbering the models would seem to take away some of the urgency of upgrading, no? You can always just say 'I have an iPad' and that'd be good enough for appearances.


Again, I think you misunderstand the driving force behind people upgrading to newer versions. Apple has been coming out with new versions of virtually every one of its products (MacBook, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, iMac, Apple TV, iPod, iPhone, iPad) every year, and they've been following the annual update approach for years. The only things that ever got numbers were the iPhone and the iPad.

I think for most consumers apart from teenagers and adult adolescents, it's the features that drive people to upgrade. Faster, more power, better camera, voice recognition, whatever, the new version generally has at least one feature that fixes something that frustrates many owners of current versions. I'm not going to upgrade to the new iPad, but if I did it would be because of the better camera, as I hate the camera on the iPad 2, it's a very low-res cellphone camera.


----------



## dave2012

I walk into a Walmart store...

me: "I'd like to buy an iPad"

salesperson: "Would you like to buy the New iPad. We just got those in!"

me: "Off course a new one silly.. and my wife wants an iPad too!"

salesperson: "That is nice of her to let you have the New iPad instead".

me: "Well she is getting a new iPad too... what do you mean?"

salesperson: "Well it sounds like she offered to give you the better one?"

me: "There is a Better iPad now??"


----------



## Eclectic12

mode3sour said:


> andrewf you're pulling at strawmen this whole thread.
> 
> [ ... ]
> 
> For many professionals, upgrading to Microsoft's latest/greatest is a must simply to be compatible in your industry (no backwards compatibility)
> 
> [ ... ]


I'll stay away from the strawman or otherwise. 

However, most companies I've worked have installed the office compatibility pack (or whatever the latest name is) and waited for a scheduled hardware refresh before touching the software versions.
It doesn't give the latest features but it does give the ability to work with the newer file formats.

I can remember a lot of graphics/video editing types that were constantly upgrading both hardware and software, though.


Cheers


----------



## Causalien

I am of the opinion that they are prepping for a new product and putting iPad on the back burner. It makes less of a fuss when new version comes out so less pressure on innovative tech. I think locking the iPad down to its current design now is good. Apple getting back to doing what it does best is good. Creating disruptive tech.


----------



## brad

Causalien said:


> I am of the opinion that they are prepping for a new product and putting iPad on the back burner.


I'm pretty sure they are gung-ho on the iPad, it's one of their most successful products ever and it's selling like hotcakes. I think the issue is that they came so close to perfection with the first iPad that it doesn't need anything other than incremental tweaking and gradual improvement at this point.

You can see this same pattern at work in nature, where there are two types of natural selection: stabilizing selection and directional selection. Stabilizing selection acts most of the time: if you have a design that works, stabilizing selection picks off the outliers and preserves the current design. That's why cockroaches have looked the same for millions of years -- it's a design that works, and they've attained evolutionary perfection. 

Directional selection kicks in when the environment changes and your design is no longer optimal. That's when new species evolve, or existing species evolve new traits. Directional selection leads to evolution, but evolution doesn't occur unless current designs are inadequate for current conditions. 

So with the iPad, Apple's got a design that works very well for now and there's no need to make radical changes for the sake of change. Better to preserve all the things are right and focus on tweaking the little things that could be made better.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Not numbering the models would seem to take away some of the urgency of upgrading, no? You can always just say 'I have an iPad' and that'd be good enough for appearances. Apple generates a lot of value for shareholders through an accelerated upgrade cycle (to put it politely), and moving away from encouraging that behaviour seems odd to me.


Oh no, Apple users are all about appearances and it's being taken away from them. They'll never want to buy another product again because it will have the same name! Time to short!


----------



## andrewf

So the iPad is both near perfect and bad enough that many people will need/want to buy the update. You're right, I don't understand. I have a laptop. It's like an iPad, except it has a keyboard, a terabyte of storage, way more processing power, a good screen, and a touchpad if I ever get the desire to poke at something rather than use a mouse. There will be better laptops released next year, and I will continue to be very happy with the one I have, as it more than fulfills my needs. 

But sure, I'm a 'power user'. So all the 40-something soccer moms that user the iPad for facebook and online banking are not also racing out to replace the device they got on a three year contract from Rogers or shelled out $700 just last year. I mean, why? I spent some time with a friend's iPad 1, and yes the screen was awful (well, below my expectations), so I can see replacing an original iPad for that reason. I'm not sure most home users even realize how awful screens are given the TVs they buy.

In other words, I see why the mass market will buy an iPad as a notebook replacement. I just don't see why they will upgrade like clockwork. It seems more likely they will wait until their contract is up, if they have a 3G model, and at least a few years if they have a wifi. I mean, the original one is servicable if you're not very picky about screen quality, which the mass market is not. And consumers will get wise to the fact that there will always be a new model just around the corner.


----------



## andrewf

GOB said:


> Oh no, Apple users are all about appearances and it's being taken away from them. They'll never want to buy another product again because it will have the same name! Time to short!


As if there were not people complaining that the 4S looked just like the 4, for exactly this reason.


----------



## GOB

Most of the "complaints" were from the media people like you, who have a vendetta against the company and their user base. Proof? Look back in this thread. Further proof? Look at iPhone 4S sales.

I'm not sure what your argument is regarding upgrading. Obviously Apple is not expecting everyone to upgrade every year, just like no other company does. That doesn't mean they shouldn't put out a new device each year, because it becomes a cycle and it keeps up with technological advances and ahead of the competitors. There are enough new tablet buyers that sales records would be set if NOBODY upgraded at the moment. Do you not understand this? 

Your assumption that soccer mom types are the only people who use iPads is laughable, to say the least. There are people who are heavy users, and for them perhaps a yearly upgrade can be justified. It's really none of your concern. Some people like to always be using the latest thing, others are happy to upgrade every couple of years, others are happy to use their device until it breaks down. Apple customers fall into all three of these segments, and I think they are doing just fine strategically. Deciding to call it "iPad" instead of "iPad 3" is not going to make a bit of difference - it just streamlines the naming convention going forward.


----------



## Causalien

The "Not upgrading and use your stuff till it dies" used to be true for me. Just like driving your car till its death.

That is, until Craigslist came out. It now cost $500 to always upgrade to the newest iPad which is the same as if you waited 5 years then buy the then newest model. The only difference is that the initial cost of capital will be higher and that you will have to hustle a bit to sell at a good price. For people like me. Both disadvantages are moot points.


----------



## brad

The model of providing new versions of software and new models of hardware every year, or close to it, has been followed widely in the entire tech industry for the past 30 years. It's hardly unique to Apple.


----------



## andrewf

GOB, I'm not a member of the media. I'm not sure where you got that idea.

Apple's most profitable customers are the ones who buy the latest and greatest as the devices are released. If each new iPad makes small incremental improvements and there is no obvious versioning, I think it is less likely to get these customers out to the store to buy them when they are released. These customers are becoming less important to Apple as its mass market customer base has grown, but they are still big profit drivers.

Cause, as I said, I don't think it's credible to be able to upgrade every year for a net cost of $100/year when you are now going to be competing with Apple with shiny brand new iPads. That has to hurt the resale market. Good for shareholders, bad for frequent updaters like you.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> If each new iPad makes small incremental improvements and there is no obvious versioning, I think it is less likely to get these customers out to the store to buy them when they are released.


No, they continue to get them because there's frequently one new feature or fix that will improve their experience enough to warrant the expense. I don't think Apple purposefully handicaps its earlier versions so they can fix them later; I think it's simply a matter of mistakes, omissions, and compromises made in the rush to market (this is the case with every electronics manufacturer and software maker; nobody gets everything right the first time). They then go back and work on fixing the mistakes, addressing the omissions, and generally updating the technology with each future version. Again, Apple is no different from anyone else in this regard. Some people will be content to skip some of the newer versions and wait until there's some killer new feature they really want before they upgrade. But every new version will have something that appeals enough to some users to make them shell out the money for a new device.

The Mac itself is a pretty mature product at this point, and my 5-year-old MacBook Pro is still more than adequate for all my needs; I typically keep my Macs for 6-8 years before upgrading. But the iPad is a rapidly evolving technology, and I'm sure at some point in the next few years Apple will add some new feature that's a "must have" for me. Either that or I'll run out of disk space and buy one with more capacity, which is another reason why many people upgrade.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> GOB, I'm not a member of the media. I'm not sure where you got that idea.
> 
> Apple's most profitable customers are the ones who buy the latest and greatest as the devices are released. If each new iPad makes small incremental improvements and there is no obvious versioning, I think it is less likely to get these customers out to the store to buy them when they are released. These customers are becoming less important to Apple as its mass market customer base has grown, but they are still big profit drivers.
> 
> Cause, as I said, I don't think it's credible to be able to upgrade every year for a net cost of $100/year when you are now going to be competing with Apple with shiny brand new iPads. That has to hurt the resale market. Good for shareholders, bad for frequent updaters like you.


Sorry, I mean media AND people like you. 

I don't know where you get the idea that the iPad upgrade was incremental - it was pretty significant. Also, I don't see why anybody expects Apple to put out revolutionary updates every year - it just doesn't work that way. No other company can do it either. Putting out something gamechanging takes a ton of R&D and work, it just can't happen every year. 

At this point, Macbooks are mature so most updates are incremental - it doesn't seem to be hurting the rapidly growing Mac sales.


----------



## ddkay

US-listed technology sector stocks had 18% EPS growth in Q4, but if you remove Apple growth was just 1%


----------



## dave2012

Looks like iPad pre-sales are off the charts (again)... http://www.livetradingnews.com/apple-nasdaaapl-ipad-gains-record-orders-65220.htm#.T134L2JWpQY

AAPL heading for $550 today!


----------



## ddkay

Typical AAPL move these days.. makes new highs, then pulls back and tanks the market with it


----------



## kcowan

ddkay said:


> US-listed technology sector stocks had 18% EPS growth in Q4, but if you remove Apple growth was just 1%


need to put in in another segment: Consumer something?









Some perspective on the changes in 13 years.


----------



## indexxx

Holy, I can't believe this stock! Yesterday after closing at $552, I put in a limit order at $550, thinking that it would surely dip a bit during the day's trading... then today it shoots straight up by $16!! Well, here's a lesson for me- if I want something that I know is rising, don't try to cheap out a buck or two. This happened last week also when I tried an overnight limit at $540 and the next ay it took off again.


----------



## GOB

I am one happy shareholder right now. Shame for all who missed the last $200 due to biases and unfounded concerns despite the real facts being in plain sight for anyone with rational decision making abilities to take advantage of. 

It's not over yet by any means - just be sure to scale in appropriately.


----------



## jcgd

I have a number bias of $367, the price the day I wanted to but in but my funds hadn't cleared. 

Everyday I think "why didn't I buy apple yesterday?". 

Maybe I'll just bite the bullet and pull some cash out of my spending money.


----------



## brad

The real happy shareholders are the ones who bought during John Sculley's rein.


----------



## humble_pie

reign

never seen U make a sp mistake before


----------



## humble_pie

i forgot americans don't have monarchs

1776 & aw that


----------



## brad

No, but we do have horses, with reins, who walk proudly in the rain no matter who the reigning monarch may be.


----------



## indexxx

indexxx said:


> Holy, I can't believe this stock! Yesterday after closing at $552, I put in a limit order at $550, thinking that it would surely dip a bit during the day's trading... then today it shoots straight up by $16!! Well, here's a lesson for me- if I want something that I know is rising, don't try to cheap out a buck or two. This happened last week also when I tried an overnight limit at $540 and the next ay it took off again.


I guess it should have been a clue when I saw all the after-hours trading of people buying hundreds of shares! Well, tonight I'm adding regardless


----------



## andrewf

GOB said:


> I am one happy shareholder right now. Shame for all who missed the last $200 due to biases and unfounded concerns despite the real facts being in plain sight for anyone with rational decision making abilities to take advantage of.
> 
> It's not over yet by any means - just be sure to scale in appropriately.


Sure it is. I hold AAPL through VTI.


----------



## GOB

That's a cute answer but +12% doesn't compare all that well with +44% YTD.

You also hold a bunch of garbage through VTI.

Even worse news for you? Try a 4.7% gain for VTI since the start of this thread (and your bearish nonsense based on bias and conjecture) compared to +74.6% for AAPL shareholders. 

To quote the great Steve Ballmer: I like your strategy, I like it a lot.


----------



## gibor365

Apple May Climb Above $700 As New IPad Sales Begin, Analysts Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...700-as-new-ipad-sales-begin-analysts-say.html


----------



## andrewf

GOB, I think it might be beneficial to the forum as a whole if we made a cursory attempt to keep discussions cordial. CMF generally avoids flame wars, and it would be good if it stayed that way.

If you want an exclusively Apple-booster forum, you're probably in the wrong place.

You may think it cute for me to say that I hold AAPL through VTI (it is a statement of fact). You are guilty of similar cuteness unless your entire portfolio consists of AAPL and related securities. Maybe you do, but that is not a risk-appropriate strategy for me, so I'm just fine with the market return.


----------



## Argonaut

Apple is undergoing a buying panic right now. I can only imagine what this would look like in back-in-the-day Wall Street, with brokers foaming from the mouth and suffocating on the trade floor, waving their papers in the air with bloodshot eyes and cocaine in their shirt pocket.


----------



## ddkay

MS updated their AAPL price target to $960 this morning, that would be a $1 trillion market cap 

Don't you think the market is getting a little carried away here GOB??

550 billion dollar penny stock.. in my eyes, you're all insane.


----------



## gibor365

imho good exposure to AAPL via ZQQ, 7 biggest holding below are bout 50% of ETF
Apple, Inc.AAPL Long 15.4% +4.40% $13.1M 
Microsoft CorporationMSFT Long 9.0% +4.40% $7.7M 
Google, Inc. AGOOG Long 5.4% +4.38% $4.6M 
Oracle CorporationORCL Long 5.2% +4.40% $4.4M 
Intel CorpINTC Long 4.9% +4.40% $4.2M 
Cisco Systems IncCSCO Long 3.8% +4.40% $3.3M 
Qualcomm, Inc.QCOM Long 3.6% +4.35% $3.1M

But I won't be surprised if AAPL tofay or tomorrow will touch $600


----------



## Toronto.gal

AAPL bidding price right now: $585.50!, LOL. A no-brainer, non-dividend paying stock! Guess Kevin O'Leary isn't too happy [as he only buys dividend paying stocks].


----------



## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> AAPL bidding price right now: $585.50!, LOL. A no-brainer, non-dividend paying stock! Guess Kevin O'Leary isn't too happy [as he only buys dividend paying stocks].


A lot of rumours that AAPL will start paying dividends, even though I don't beleive so


----------



## dave2012

It did break $594. Might well pass $600 tomorrow.


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> A lot of rumours that AAPL will start paying dividends, even though I don't beleive so


I beg to differ; I believe they will eventually.

Is anyone in favour of a stock split?

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-02-24/apple-says-no-to-a-stock-split


----------



## GOB

Andrew, you have a deal, as long as you don't pretend you haven't been avidly participating in your own subtle way. 

Regarding VTI, holding Apple in that kind of ETF is an extremely low exposure. Somebody who goes through detailed analysis about an individual stock and has a strong opinion as a result would not simply buy VTI and be satisifed with that tiny amount of exposure. Due to its nature, VTI simply gives market average performance, so analyzing a particular stock serves no purpose. 

By traditional definitions, I am "overweight" on AAPL. I do have some other holdings. I believe if you have enough knowledge on something you can acquire an opinion superior to that of the market, and as a result it's permissible to go overweight based on that. It's all about odds. This obviously depends on growth targets, risk appetite, age etc. but I'm young and have stable employment so going overweight on something I was literally 99% sure on (and was correct looking back) was the right thing to do for me.


----------



## indexxx

ddkay said:


> MS updated their AAPL price target to $960 this morning, that would be a $1 trillion market cap
> 
> Don't you think the market is getting a little carried away here GOB??
> 
> 550 billion dollar penny stock.. in my eyes, you're all insane.


Maybe... but this stock is going to buy us a nice Cuckoo's Nest! But really, gains aside, where is the correlation to a penny stock? Apple quality and value and incredible strength combined with their moat set them far apart from penny stock status.


----------



## gibor365

indexxx said:


> Maybe... but this stock is going to buy us a nice Cuckoo's Nest! But really, gains aside, where is the correlation to a penny stock? Apple quality and value and incredible strength combined with their moat set them far apart from penny stock status.


If AAPL introduce dividends, even $960 is possible... imagine all dividend based income/dividends MF and ETF will start loading 

GOB, i agree that VTI with it's 3% AAPL allocation is a very tiny , but ZQQ with 15 and TDB908 with 16% are pretty sufficient


----------



## GOB

ddkay said:


> MS updated their AAPL price target to $960 this morning, that would be a $1 trillion market cap
> 
> Don't you think the market is getting a little carried away here GOB??
> 
> 550 billion dollar penny stock.. in my eyes, you're all insane.


There's no doubt there's a ton of momentum behind AAPL right now. In my eyes though, we're still playing catchup for the years of undervaluation that has plagued the stock (despite the excellent overall performance). We are still undervalued at this stage, with Apple barely getting a market average P/E. AMZN, GOOG, NFLX and tons of others are still being awarded higher multiples than AAPL despite AAPl being the only one deserving of a high multiple with real results. To borrow a phrase from someone in this thread, does anyone actually still think Google is going to "eat their lunch"? It's absurd. 

Short term, maybe the market is getting carried away, but I think that applies to the entire market and not only Apple. Long term? We aren't even close to Apple peaking. I've been taking some profits on a few of my options (sold a Jan13 $500 and Jul12 $550 today) but am not touching my stock.


----------



## andrewf

gibor said:


> If AAPL introduce dividends, even $960 is possible... imagine all dividend based income/dividends MF and ETF will start loading
> 
> GOB, i agree that VTI with it's 3% AAPL allocation is a very tiny , but ZQQ with 15 and TDB908 with 16% are pretty sufficient


This goes to show you how silly dividend ETFs are, or KO'L and his dividend-only mantra.


----------



## donald

Did anybody pick up any apple @ that last low when it was 486ish?hindsight is 20/20-i wanted to but did'nt have the *balls* Tgal called that one that afternoon....any guesses when/if/what the next pullback is coming?doesn't seem to be any negitives/headwinds....ive never seen a stock act like this...this is nutty.


----------



## Jungle

I drool over this but just continue to buy TDB 902 for our us exposure..
sigh


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## ddkay

donald said:


> ive never seen a stock act like this...this is nutty.


That's what I'm thinking donald... the only patterns that compare this run up to are found in the dot com bubble or penny stocks. Funds that don't even focus on technology are shifting style, rotating out of bonds and other equities to buy Apple, increasing the weighting in their portfolio, adding $30 billion to AAPL market cap every 2 days. It's already overweight in the regular indexes. all of this is increasing systemic risk...

If I'm a long term shareholder, I don't like it one bit.. I want to see slow, steady growth. People are just crowding in now and main st are turning into sesame street finding every excuse to buy the latest high print. I'm not saying this is a top because parabolic shaped ones are especially hard to call, but all the warning signs are there...


----------



## GOB

There is absolutely no relation between AAPL and a bubble. Bubbles burst because price rockets up in spite of weak fundamentals. With AAPL, any fundamental metric you can think of points to undervaluation. Apple will likely take home $50+ EPS this year, much more next year and even more the year after, with just their current product lineup (and appropriate updates). They also have $100 billion cash in the bank, giving them more flexibility than any other company on earth. It is a P/E of 16.8, and a forward P/E much less than that and a PEG well under 1. How is $600 overvalued based on these simple fundamentals? 

Apple has been held down over the years for various reasons - the health of Jobs, recession, Android etc. A lot of this has been cleared up now, and people have finally clued in and piling in. What's not to like as a long term shareholder? 

Your argument can be reversed by saying you should look to buy any stock that's taken a large dip, regardless of fundamentals. Everyone is getting out of the stock, so that should be the sign of a bottom, right? How did that work for Nortel or RIMM? Not well, because the fundamentals supported the drop in their values and continued to do so.

Why would I want to see slow, steady growth in my stock when the company is growing 50-100% a year? I want to see stock growth that mirrors actual growth. Finally that's beginning to happen. 

Price must be looked at together with fundamentals. Neither matter on their own.


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## donald

You own some right ddkay?(indirectly)are you profit taking right now?I'm sorta @ a "loss" myself with what im "doing" i bought in like a half a yr ago and did'nt really "plan" for seeing this shape up like this.I'm def in the "rookie camp" when it comes to investing......is this just "sit tight & enjoy the ride"?or prepare to get off the ride.


----------



## GOB

If you can handle volatility and don't need the cash for the foreseeable future, hold and in all likelihood you will make a lot more. If Apple begins to falter in the future, the signs will be there and you should be able to get out at a high level anyway. 

If you're risk-averse and want to take your nice profit, nothing wrong with that either. Just don't be upset to see it go higher.


----------



## GOB

Hit $600 today, seems like just yesterday it hit $500. Impressive to say the least. Too bad I didn't hang onto those options another day, but I still have a few more and plenty of shares to continue to enjoy this ride.


----------



## avrex

Call me crazy, but  I just sold all of my APPL


----------



## GOB

Nice profit!


----------



## kcowan

At current prices, their PE is approaching that of Google. There has been a long term tracking of the PE between the two but Google has always had the premium.

http://ycharts.com/companies/GOOG/p...rtDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false


----------



## gibor365

avrex said:


> Call me crazy, but  I just sold all of my APPL


I locked in profit and sold AAPL when it hit $400 and started to pull back. Still sorry about this move...


----------



## GOB

kcowan said:


> At current prices, their PE is approaching that of Google. There has been a long term tracking of the PE between the two but Google has always had the premium.
> 
> http://ycharts.com/companies/GOOG/p...rtDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false


That premium has not made sense for the last 5+ years. It's good to finally see some rationality entering this sector. Google has nothing to make money on but search - growth is limited. They may grow services and revenue but profits are a challenged as the last earnings announcement revealed.


----------



## PMREdmonton

I sold out on the drop to 590.

I will try to buy back in after a correction as I still like it long-term but it is severely overbought right now.

I am hoping to get back in around 500-525 later this year. I might sell some puts after a correction to 550.


----------



## PMREdmonton

GOB said:


> That premium has not made sense for the last 5+ years. It's good to finally see some rationality entering this sector. Google has nothing to make money on but search - growth is limited. They may grow services and revenue but profits are a challenged as the last earnings announcement revealed.


The issue with Apple is they are still mostly a hardware firm and in the realm of hardware they are very expensive at current valuations. The other issue is the history of hardware is loss of pricing power as new technologies become commoditized very quickly. I think it is only a matter of time before this happens as Apple has mostly coasted on the Telecoms heavily subsidizing the phones. Over time I suspect they will push back. I also suspect over time the parts suppliers will also start to push back given how frequently Apple switches suppliers leaving the abandoned ones with so much unproductive capacity that they have built up.

Google is clearly a winner now in search and no one can come close to challenging them. Their lead increases with every search due to the learning algorithms they have and this creates a gigantic moat. Google is also a massively innovative company that is now working harder on the monetization of their IP. It will be interesting to see how much strength they gain from the vertical integration they can now develop with their Motorola acquisition on the TV side and mobile computing hardware side of things.

Right now I think Google is the better buy given Apple's recent run. In the long run Google will still be the dominant player in search and Apple will come back to the pack and lose their pricing power and subsidization from Telcos. Anywhere that Apple lacks subsidies they also lack market share so I think it is only a matter of time before their US gravy train is tipped over.


----------



## Lephturn

Apple is hardware, software, and even content all rolled together.

Who's got the better margins? Yeah I thought so.


----------



## brad

PMREdmonton said:


> The issue with Apple is they are still mostly a hardware firm


Apple has never been "mostly a hardware firm." The thing that has distinguished them from the others since the 1980s is that they provide an integrated package: hardware and software together (and as Lepthurn notes they now provide content too), and only for a short misguided period did they license out the hardware end to clone makers. They were criticized for their decision to keep it all in-house and it is undoubtedly the root underlying reason why Apple still accounts for a fairly small portion of the PC market, but it allows them to control the entire user experience in a way that neither Microsoft, Google, Dell, or any of the other players can. 

Apple still has enormous growth potential, especially in the PC market where some of the resistance is starting to fade in corporations and other consumers who have been typically Windows-only in the past. I'm not sure about the phone and tablet markets, but Apple's pretty diversified and they have plenty of tricks up their sleeve.


----------



## GOB

PMREdmonton said:


> The issue with Apple is they are still mostly a hardware firm and in the realm of hardware they are very expensive at current valuations. The other issue is the history of hardware is loss of pricing power as new technologies become commoditized very quickly. I think it is only a matter of time before this happens as Apple has mostly coasted on the Telecoms heavily subsidizing the phones. Over time I suspect they will push back. I also suspect over time the parts suppliers will also start to push back given how frequently Apple switches suppliers leaving the abandoned ones with so much unproductive capacity that they have built up.
> 
> Google is clearly a winner now in search and no one can come close to challenging them. Their lead increases with every search due to the learning algorithms they have and this creates a gigantic moat. Google is also a massively innovative company that is now working harder on the monetization of their IP. It will be interesting to see how much strength they gain from the vertical integration they can now develop with their Motorola acquisition on the TV side and mobile computing hardware side of things.
> 
> Right now I think Google is the better buy given Apple's recent run. In the long run Google will still be the dominant player in search and Apple will come back to the pack and lose their pricing power and subsidization from Telcos. Anywhere that Apple lacks subsidies they also lack market share so I think it is only a matter of time before their US gravy train is tipped over.


I don't even know where to begin. These arguments have been around for years and have not come to fruition - quite the opposite, in fact. 

Margins - Apple's margins are *increasing* while every other hardware manufacturer is decreasing. Apple clearly does not fit the mould here and cannot be lumped together with the others. Why? Because they have the combination of hardware, software, leading edge innovation and vertical integration that nobody else can even begin to offer. That is worth a premium to the consumer. Also, due to amazing operational efficiencies, Apple makes far more margin than any competitor even when ASPs are the same. Your first mistake that invalidates most of your other points is the assumption that Apple is simply a generic hardware company. 

Margins for Google? They rely solely on search, and last time I checked cost per click numbers were down. Advertising rates fluctuate greatly and are really out of Google's control. If companies decide to tighten up their asvertising budgets as some are already, where does that leave Google? 

Subsidies are not going away anytime soon, and have proven to be a winning strategy for both Apple and the telcos. I don't AT&T, Verizon or Sprint are too upset over the millions of iPhones (and data plans) they are selling. Apple has had their way with the entire music industry, the cell phone and tablet markets. Do you think a couple of American telcos are capable of pushing Apple around? They can't. 

Apple's relationship with their suppliers is generally very good. They often invest in plant equipment and infrastructure for the supplier and in exchange get exclusive first use of the equipment for their products. A definite win-win and and awesome sustainable strategy. Nobody else can do this becuase of cost and/or lack of volume. 

Google innovative? That's debatable though that's certainly the reputation they try to (so far successfully) portray. Google is all search, nothing very innovative or profitable has come their way since. What Google really does is copy the latest trend (Blackberry, iPhone, Facebook) and offer it "free" in exchange for users' personal information. They then use this to improve their ad business. As I mentioned before though, there are risks to their ad business and probably not much growth ahead, considering the prices, existing user penetration and lack of traction in China. Why would you pick a company that might start making money off an innovative product over one who already does and has a track record of doing so regularly?

The common thought was that Google was the better buy when Apple was down at $400. Nothing has changed, and none of the common conjecture is any more true today than it was then. In fact, much of it has been proven wrong.


----------



## dave2012

I'm thinking the opposite. Firstly Apple goes way beyond just hardware and they continue to lead ahead of all competition.

Yes Google is the clear winner with search, but that aspect of their business has matured. I don't see a lot of growth there. They are coming out with some more advanced search technology, which will keep them ahead of Bing and such, but I don't see much room to grow ad revenues from search beyond what they currently do.

I'd say AAPL is a much better buy that GOOG. It has been one of my favorites for several years, but I'm ready to say goodbye to GOOG when it gets back up to $650.


----------



## ddkay

This isn't Apple related but may be in the future??



> STOCKHOLM (Dow Jones)--Multinational chip maker Intel Corp. (INTC) has invested SEK143 million ( $20.8 million ) in privately held eye-tracking technology firm Tobii Technology AB for a 10% stake, Computer Sweden reported Thursday.
> 
> Intel Capital, an investment vehicle owned by Intel, acquired the stake, Computer Sweden said.
> 
> John Elvesjo, one of Tobii's founders and the company's executive vice president, confirmed the investment, the report said.
> 
> Tobii develops technology that enables computers to know with high precision where users are looking. The technology has mainly been sold to the advertising and healthcare industries, but the firm wants to broaden its use to the consumer market.
> 
> At the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January, the company demonstrated its technology as a replacement for the mouse on a PC running Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows 8 operating system. It has also developed an eye-controlled arcade game.
> 
> Tobii was founded in 2001 and has offices in Sweden, the U.S., Germany, Japan, China and Norway. Last year it had 300 employees.
> 
> Newspaper Web site: www.computersweden.idg.se/
> 
> -By Sven Grundberg, Dow Jones Newswires; +46-8-5451-3098; [email protected] dowjones.com


----------



## kcowan

$13 billion in fee revenuesby 2013 driven by their leading position in devices that download. Does not sound like a hardware vendor to me...


----------



## indexxx

After touching 600, and with the stock pulling back a bit on the day of release of the iPad, what are people's short-term thoughts on AAPL?


----------



## kcowan

Not short term because I am in for the long term, but here is one person's view on how AAPL could reach $2 trillion market cap.

How AAPL can reach a $2 trillion market cap!
So you think $540 million is a lot? How about $2 trillion?

I think the analysis is pretty conservative rather than "wishful thinking". Comments?

(Meanwhile we await early returns on New iPad sales...)

Plus we have the expiry of the options (triple whammy) impacting the short term valuation.


----------



## marina628

I sold at $440 thinking I did well ,can kick myself now lol


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## GOB

The headline sounds ridiculous at first but if you examine the analysis it's certainly feasible. He even assumes margin compression and increased operating expense, as well as a rock bottom P/E of 12. It's incredible.

The new iPad is getting awesome reviews. As usual Apple will sell as many as they can make.


----------



## indexxx

kcowan said:


> Not short term because I am in for the long term, but here is one person's view on how AAPL could reach $2 trillion market cap.
> 
> How AAPL can reach a $2 trillion market cap!
> So you think $540 million is a lot? How about $2 trillion?
> 
> I think the analysis is pretty conservative rather than "wishful thinking". Comments?
> 
> (Meanwhile we await early returns on New iPad sales...)
> 
> Plus we have the expiry of the options (triple whammy) impacting the short term valuation.


-Just for the record, I am also long Apple in a big way; just curious as to what other's opinions are at this juncture.


----------



## donald

People in line for the new ipad were being bought out for $300+ for there spot all over the world.(if you think about that)people were willing to spend 300 not for the ipad but to be in line.....How can you not be long apple?


----------



## indexxx

donald said:


> People in line for the new ipad were being bought out for $300+ for there spot all over the world.(if you think about that)people were willing to spend 300 not for the ipad but to be in line.....How can you not be long apple?


Oh hell, lots of people are short on apple! (even on this board... ). I'm just stirring the pot a little, curious if anyone sees a pullback before the next run. Some analysts are thinking we'll see closer to 500 for a while due to profit-taking by big money.


----------



## PMREdmonton

indexxx said:


> After touching 600, and with the stock pulling back a bit on the day of release of the iPad, what are people's short-term thoughts on AAPL?


I sold at 593.

I still don't mind the stock but it got really overbought. This stock has a tendency to have major pullbacks twice a year and I see this as one of those times.

I will try to buy back in and may purchase a put in my margin account to get paid while I wait for the pullback.

I do like the stock in the medium term but I really think people have fallen into the "it's different this time" trap. All tech hardware companies eventually see their tech offerings commoditized and lose their pricing power over time. It happened to Apple before, IBM twice, Motorola twice, Nokia, RIM and I think it will happen to Apple before too long now that Jobs is gone. I don't think that kind of visionary mind can easily be replaced - Apple's talent will get hired away by rival firms over time and their offerings will become equivalent to Apple eating away their margins. I also see the major telecoms of the US eventually pushing back against the subsidies Apple has extracted from them as their margins have been crushed and they have to invest a lot of capital to build up their systems. In most of the rest of the world Apple products aren't heavily subsidized by the major carriers and they are a niche product for the wealthy (9% market share in Europe).

If you are looking for tech companies with more staying power you have to look at service providers and software companies - MSFT, GOOG, ORCL, IBM, SAP, ACN. In this realm, Dell is becoming a service provider that is still valued as a hardware company and I like their business transition to less sales but higher margins. The market has been punishing them for this but they will emerge a smaller but more profitable company in the end.

In summary, short-term I am out, medium term I will be back in and long-term I am out.


----------



## ddkay

I checked out the new iPad at the Apple store... the screen has more saturation, there's actually a saturation slider that you should pull back because the default colours are way overblown lol. The difference in reading text is subtle, you really don't notice unless your nose can touch the screen. Also since the larger resolution is more resource intensive on GPU, some stuff can actually render slower than on an iPad 2, for example the brush strokes in SketchBook. Hardware updates are obviously stagnating, there was, no "one more thing" like in the Jobs era. There was also not much in the way of software updates. Siri got left out. 

Overall I don't think its worth spending an extra $586 taxes in just for a screen upgrade if you have an iPad 2. And the LTE thing doesn't make a difference if you already tether your wifi model off a smartphone.

If you don't own any tablet at all and use computers sparingly, I think the iPad 2 for $399 ($419 in Canada) offers the best value. At this pace I think the iPad 2 will last another 6 to 10 years, the only wildcard is battery lifespan, it's too early to tell how long they last.

Edit: If you *don't* need a tablet immediatley I would just wait for an iteration that includes edge to edge display, at least those look distinguishably newer. 

By that time hopefully Nokia has a few Windows 8 flagship tablets out as well.


----------



## ddkay

donald said:


> People in line for the new ipad were being bought out for $300+ for there spot all over the world.(if you think about that)people were willing to spend 300 not for the ipad but to be in line.....How can you not be long apple?


This wasn't at every location.. yesterday morning at the flagship Apple store on Fifth Ave in NYC, there were only 250 people in line and they moved pretty quickly. This was nothing like the iPhone release.

This morning (day 2 of release) at the Toronto Eaton Centre, it was busy as usual, but there were lots of free demo units to use right away and they even still had stock to purchase (except 16GB LTE white/black).. no line ups or waiting. When I bought my iPad 2 the first week of release last year, I had to do a reserve & pick up. All the independent authorized resellers like CSC and Carbon Computing were sold out of every model. This is all anecdotal though.. we won't know actual sales performance until next quarter results are in.


----------



## ddkay

Accord to IHS iSuppli the most expensive parts inside the new iPad are the screen and touch controller @ $87 and $40 respectively. The total cost of the base model is $316.05 per unit, $70.95 more expensive than the iPad 2 (some margin compression here).

Finally found a review with a proper pixel density comparison.. every other review just had "gotta see it 4 urself!" lameness.

Under the microscope / macro lens

















Definitely an improvement, hi-res photos and textures can be more detailed, but it's not that noticeable if you use the device more than 12" away from your face.


----------



## donald

Your right ddkay(about the line ups)i did read thou that there were people being bought out for there spots in london.....but were lower volumes of line-ups elsewhere.But still it highlights the craze for apple!In the same article entrepreneurs were buying upwards of 70 ipads and selling for profit(marking them up over $130 a unit and shipping them back to india ect)You gotta to wonder if apple is maximizing there rollouts....they got to get there supply chain more efficient imo......There are people making a business out of selling ahead of them....is that a good thing or a bad thing,seems like they got to solve that....the baiting without supply out of the gate.


----------



## ddkay

Well I think the line ups are part of the hype. Apple should be doing its best to keep up the appearance of "demand off the charts". If people see no line ups they could perceive (analysts think the same thing) there is less demand, it's not worth upgrading to and better to wait for the next major redesign probably next year.

Also if you're one of those fan boys that camp out all night for iStuff, small or no line ups takes away from the experience, nobody is buying with you, you just feel even more lonely lol.


----------



## ddkay

Here's a guy trying to sell the new iPad base model for $28.53 over retail (after taxes), "bulk quantity available" posted 4 hours ago: http://toronto.kijiji.ca/c-buy-and-...-BLACK-HOTEST-LOWEST-PRICE-W0QQAdIdZ364038066

Is it really worth their time? Buyers can just go through retail channels and get it for less...

Apparently the 4G version is selling out quickest because it's not available yet in Asia (for good reason, it's not compatible with the carriers there, but sheeple don't know any better). There's always opportunists around...


----------



## Spudd

We were at Staples last night and the guy told us they still had the new iPad in stock. Then went to Future Shop and did a side-by-side compare of new vs old. The new screen is nicer, but not that much nicer to make it worth the extra money in my opinion.


----------



## ddkay

Spudd said:


> We were at Staples last night and the guy told us they still had the new iPad in stock. Then went to Future Shop and did a side-by-side compare of new vs old. The new screen is nicer, but not that much nicer to make it worth the extra money in my opinion.


Well Apple is kind of undercutting the resale market, so the best existing owners can do is probably sell a used iPad 2 16GB for $299, and buy new iPad 16GB for $586.47 (incl 13% hst). $287.47 difference.. that's pretty steep for just the screen. At this point the product is evolutionary not revolutionary, and higher res displays should be coming to other tablets, macbooks and other pc monitors very soon. Apple gets brownie points for being first.


----------



## PMREdmonton

I think the Apple hype machine is starting to teeter a bit here.

The tablet is nice but for most people it's not worthy of an upgrade but some newcomers will enjoy their first tablet here. However, I think numbers may disappoint because of the lack of demand from the usual upgraders.

In the next two years tablets and smartphone commoditization will be complete and this will be a low margin business for the hardware side of things. Apple's profits will have to increasingly come from the software/retail/cloud side of things but that is also becoming increasingly competitive. They also have to deal with the anti-trust allegations now. 

I have no idea how far this thing will run in the short run but I see big margin compression in the long run which will bring P/S down to Earth from the hardware side of things.


----------



## brad

PMREdmonton said:


> The tablet is nice but for most people it's not worthy of an upgrade but some newcomers will enjoy their first tablet here.


I think that's right -- I wouldn't be surprised if most of the upgraders are iPad1 owners whose machines are now starting to run out of free space and are looking a bit skimpy compared with the newest model (no camera, etc.). I see very little reason why any iPad2 owner would feel the need to upgrade now.

But Apple's pattern isn't to come out with a revolutionary upgrade: the pattern is to come out with a revolutionary product, and then provide annual upgrades that make incremental improvements. That's what they've done for years with their computer line, and that's what they've done with the iPhone and iPad. The revolutions don't generally happen within a product line once it's established (although the iMac has gone through several revolutionary changs in both design and processing power).


----------



## ddkay

brad said:


> I think that's right -- I wouldn't be surprised if most of the upgraders are iPad1 owners whose machines are now starting to run out of free space and are looking a bit skimpy compared with the newest model (no camera, etc.). I see very little reason why any iPad2 owner would feel the need to upgrade now.


That's where they get you eh. I don't know which apps people fill their tablets with, but image intensive apps will balloon in size with these higher resolutions. If for example the majority of installed apps on a persons tablet are games, the 'new iPad' version needs to be optimized for Retina graphics--200% higher detailed textures, and up to 200% more space (hopefully less, really depends on the developers cleverness). There's already some reports of stuff like iMovie going from 70 MB to over 400 MB. The 16GB version just might not do the job anymore... and Apple charges like $200 for $70 worth of nand flash lol, so moving to the next tier of storage gets really expensive.

After "the next big thing" gets launched the pattern so far seems to be small updates every 12 months and major redesigns every 24 months. So we can deduce the next major redesign of the iPad will be next year.. hopefully something that knocks everyone's socks off..


----------



## brad

ddkay said:


> That's where they get you eh. I don't know which apps people fill their tablets with, but image intensive apps will balloon in size with these higher resolutions.


David Pogue covered the space issue in his review in the NY Times; the new versions occupy more space in older iPads as well, and most of us have downloaded the newer versions because the tablet notifies us whenever there's a new version of an app we already have. 

But people run out of space not because of apps but because they keep music, movies, and videos on their iPads. My iTunes library is 30 gigs, and that's pretty small by many people's standards. You can instruct iTunes only to sync certain items and exclude big files like movies, TV shows, etc., but most people just set it on automatic and that means eventually they discover that they're running out of room. They could spend a few hours figuring out what to delete, or they could spring for a new model with more capacity.


----------



## brad

ddkay said:


> After "the next big thing" gets launched the pattern so far seems to be small updates every 12 months and major redesigns every 24 months. So we can deduce the next major redesign of the iPad will be next year.. hopefully something that knocks everyone's socks off..


I don't think so. It's hard to image how they could do a major "redesign" of the iPad. If they do anything with the overall design I suspect they'll offer it in a couple of sizes, although presumably they won't call the larger version a "Maxi-Pad."  The overall design works well and doesn't need tampering; they'll probably try to make it a bit lighter and thinner as the technology develops. The main big changes going forward are more likely to occur in the operating system. Microsoft has done a mostly fabulous job at re-envisioning how a touchscreen interface can be organized and operated, and I'd be surprised if Apple doesn't make some major changes to its user interface for iPad, iPhone, and iPod down the road. And they'll probably ensure that the new iOS only runs on the most recent iPad models, which forces those who want the latest software to upgrade their hardware.


----------



## GOB

ddkay said:


> This wasn't at every location.. yesterday morning at the flagship Apple store on Fifth Ave in NYC, there were only 250 people in line and they moved pretty quickly. This was nothing like the iPhone release.
> 
> This morning (day 2 of release) at the Toronto Eaton Centre, it was busy as usual, but there were lots of free demo units to use right away and they even still had stock to purchase (except 16GB LTE white/black).. no line ups or waiting. When I bought my iPad 2 the first week of release last year, I had to do a reserve & pick up. All the independent authorized resellers like CSC and Carbon Computing were sold out of every model. This is all anecdotal though.. we won't know actual sales performance until next quarter results are in.


This is actually good news in my eyes as it indicates that Apple has significantly improved their production capacity - the only thing holding back sales for all their mobile products over the last few years. Having people wait weeks to be able to buy devices is a good story and speaks to the strength of demand but ultimately is not as efficient as always having enough stock to meet demand. Hopefully Apple announces initial sales numbers - I expect them to be huge.


----------



## GOB

PMREdmonton said:


> I think the Apple hype machine is starting to teeter a bit here.
> 
> The tablet is nice but for most people it's not worthy of an upgrade but some newcomers will enjoy their first tablet here. However, I think numbers may disappoint because of the lack of demand from the usual upgraders.
> 
> In the next two years tablets and smartphone commoditization will be complete and this will be a low margin business for the hardware side of things. Apple's profits will have to increasingly come from the software/retail/cloud side of things but that is also becoming increasingly competitive. They also have to deal with the anti-trust allegations now.
> 
> I have no idea how far this thing will run in the short run but I see big margin compression in the long run which will bring P/S down to Earth from the hardware side of things.


More conjecture. Every review I have seen says the new iPad is amazing and blows away any other tablet on the market. I don't see any drop in demand - you're looking for things that aren't there. Why concern yourself over what may or may not happen many years into the future when the present and near future performance is almost a certainty? Apple can immediately go to zero growth (won't happen) and still have a market average P/E, making it a decent buy. Now add their obvious growth, even if it only lasts a few years more and it's a no brainer. 

What is the basis to your proclamation that tablet and smartphone commoditization will be complete in the next two years? You could have said it two years ago for smartphones and it hasn't happened. And how do you explain the margins Apple continue to make on traditional desktops and laptops, which have existed for decades?


----------



## gibor365

I;d say that AAPL has a huge potential in emerging and 2rd world countries. On Cuban resorts (country that doesn't have even network) I've seen local bartenders who is using iPhone mostly to check time and.... to show off , like they are extremely cool and successful if can afford such a nice "toy"... the similar situation in Russia and other emerging , even some developed countries.... 
If person has iPhone, smokes Marlboro or Parlament, wears Timberland or salamandra -> they have a "status"....
P.S. I'm old-fashioned, I hate gadgets and from all AAPL product have the oldest iPod


----------



## Argonaut

*Apple to decide on its $98 billion cash pile*

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-host-call-monday-morning-002450673.html

A buyback after a huge run-up would be silly. I'm thinking dividend.


----------



## jcgd

I think they decided in both. The buy back to offset dilution due to options. Way to miss the bus on that one.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Major game changer with introduction of 2.65 dividend per quarter and a buyback.

This will be a major short-term catalyst for the stock as many institutions will now be open to buying the stock. It also raises my hopes they will soon announce a stock split which will also be a major catalyst for the stock due to increasing the number of institutions that will carry it.

I'm now long AAPL again and increased my position 300% from my previous allocation. I still view this holding as a medium term holding as my long-term thesis (5-10 years down the road) has not changed - the competition will catch up and smartphones and tablets will be commodotized which will result in major margin compression compared to present levels. Innovation will likely decrease due to loss of visionary leader and the dilution of talent base to other companies - this has always been the nature of business and Apple will not defy these rules in the long run.

Many of you take offense to this notion but I don't really see why - there is no impenetrable moat here. Moat is CNR, KO, DEO, PM, MCD. These stocks are not going to be decimated by technological change and you can sleep on them for 10 years without worry. This is clearly not the case for AAPL where technological change can be very disruptive and the whole history of the industry suggests regular changes in the market leader every 5-10 years.

Nevertheless, I am happy to continue to ride Apple's run up and will accumulate at these prices.


----------



## Jungle

Interesting, I wonder how the market is going to react and if the it's already priced in the stock.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Shares are up by around 2%.

I called this dividend last week. It was a NO brainer with the fortune the company had amassed!


----------



## GOB

Another game changer. Hopefully Apple uses the buyback option strategically to counteract any significant price dips. 

Almost a sure thing now that this thing goes to $1000+. The question is now when, not if.


----------



## Lucy

Wow! $1000 per share because of a dividend and stock buy back? I think that will depend more on future innovation and growth.


----------



## andrewf

So borrow every dollar you can to buy bull call spreads?

It seems like we keep on moving the goal posts here. When I said a year or so ago that Apple should be returning cash to shareholders, I was an idiot. Now that Apple has decided to do so, it is a wise move. I still agree that it makes sense, though they missed an opportunity to buy back a lot of shares at much lower prices. I would think a larger emphasis on buybacks makes sense, as the P/E is reasonable from a fundamental perspective and many shareholders don't find US dividends appealing (including US residents who will soon we facing 40% MTR on dividends).


----------



## jcgd

I don't care about the dividend so much. I just wish they had done buy backs over the dips of the last few years. Of course they waited till the p/e started to reflect at least some of the growth. 

Maybe as funds buy in for the divi we can get another good run up.


----------



## ddkay

$64 billion of Apple's cash hoard is offshore, and the current plan does not call to repatriate any of it.. they're just going to burn through the domestic pile to pay the dividend and buyback.. losers..


----------



## donald

Is it a GIVEN that the us will hike the dividend tax rate from 15% to 40%?Like andrew says that makes me alittle nervous,not just for aapl but for all us dividend stocks(not trying to tail off in the thread)....That tax hike is going to change the landscape in a big way....won't investors start fleeing?I for one hope the usa government does'nt pass that law.


----------



## gibor365

donald said:


> Is it a GIVEN that the us will hike the dividend tax rate from 15% to 40%?Like andrew says that makes me alittle nervous,not just for aapl but for all us dividend stocks(not trying to tail off in the thread)....That tax hike is going to change the landscape in a big way....won't investors start fleeing?I for one hope the usa government does'nt pass that law.


The question where they gonna flee?
Also, who knows if they will do it on election year


----------



## gibor365

looks like AAPL has some major resistance at $600 , imho if it breaks 600, it can surge


----------



## donald

I don't know where us dividend focused investors would flee but one thing is for sure the us government is def attacking corporations and investors imo.....where is the incentive when the game changes?where will be the "protection" dividend investors get?half the reason dividend stocks for us residents are attractive is for the tax rate?This is a rant but isnt it bitting the hand that feeds?who "runs" the country.....High net worth investors not the government(government is'nt as powerful,its a illusion)rant over lol


----------



## gibor365

if this tax increase eill happen , it will have big impact not only on US dividend stocks, but also on Canadian and international, as the biggest companies are traded in US


----------



## andrewf

I'm not sure how big the effect will be. All we know is that in countries where capital gains are treated more favourably than dividends, more companies opt for share buybacks than dividends. So, we probably won't see dividend cuts, but more companies will opt for increased share buybacks rather than dividend increases.

Nothing is guaranteed in US politics these days. Going from 15% to 40% is pretty drastic, though. I think the US could benefit from a dividend and capital gains system like the one we use in Canada. It would allow them to reduce corporate taxation and allow some of those foreign profits to be patriated without giving a huge tax holiday to wealthy shareholders.


----------



## GOB

Andrew, I don't think I called anyone an idiot for either wanting or not wanting a dividend. In fact, I made strong cases for both sides. My conclusion was that Apple is exceptionally well managed and they don't waste their cash on things like meaningless acquisitions, so holding onto their was not a dangerous thing and provided certain advantages. I did point out the various advantages of a dividend as well. 

The fact is that a lot has changed from a year or even six months ago. Every additional dollar Apple makes becomes less and less important to keep for the successful operation of the company. 

The last year I think has seen Apple cement themselves as a powerhouse for the foreseeable future. Management thinks a dividend and buyback is now appropriate - sounds good to me. 

The buyback will probably be held for any significant selloffs in the stock - that's my hope at least.


----------



## kcowan

GOB said:


> The buyback will probably be held for any significant selloffs in the stock - that's my hope at least.


In fact, if there is no volatilty, they can always defer the buyback to the next period through a BOD vote. It is a smart move and indicates to me that major acquisitions are off the table for now.


----------



## GOB

Major acquisitions are not the way Apple does things. A few strategic buys of up to a few hundred million a piece is all they've ever done. 

Over 3 million new iPads sold since launch. This doesn't include the lower priced iPad 2. What's that about the run being over?


----------



## ddkay

GOB said:


> Over 3 million new iPads sold since launch. This doesn't include the lower priced iPad 2.


No official initial sales stats were released for iPad 1 or 2, so people can't do any meaningful analysis with that number.


----------



## GOB

ddkay said:


> No official initial sales stats were released for iPad 1 or 2, so people can't do any meaningful analysis with that number.


Not sure if it was official or not, but the common thought is that about a million iPad 2s were sold on its opening weekend. The number makes sense looking at the sales for the quarter. 

This launch sold around three times more, which makes sense due to increased production capacity and a broader rollout. It's simply confirmation that more sales records will undoubtedly be set, and Apple's growth story is nowhere close to being over yet.


----------



## ddkay

Ya this is the first time they made an iPad initial sales announcement, I was searching for last years earlier and found they didn't release them, nor anything for 2010.



> Apple said earlier today on a conference call that it had record iPad sales during its initial weekend, but didn't give out specific numbers. Now, we have them: sales of its new iPad topped three million units, the company says. "Customers are loving the incredible new features of iPad," Philip Schiller, the company's marketing head, said in a statement, adding that the sales figure was "the strongest iPad launch yet." - By Ian Sherr/WSJ Digits 03-19-2012 17:27ET


----------



## indexxx

jcgd said:


> I don't care about the dividend so much. I just wish they had done buy backs over the dips of the last few years. Of course they waited till the p/e started to reflect at least some of the growth.
> 
> Maybe as funds buy in for the divi we can get another good run up.


Why would we want a run up? I'd love nothing more than for Apple to dive to below $200 for a year so I can stockpile a huge whack of shares before it explodes past $1,000, increasing both my capital gains and my number of shares for the dividend. I'd only want a run-up if I'm about to start selling.


----------



## indexxx

ddkay said:


> $64 billion of Apple's cash hoard is offshore, and the current plan does not call to repatriate any of it.. they're just going to burn through the domestic pile to pay the dividend and buyback.. losers..


just curious- who, exactly, are the losers?


----------



## MrMatt

They've got more money than they need, they should pay it out.

It should have been a share buyback and stock split, but many people want a dividend. Apple just gave them what they asked for.


----------



## ddkay

indexxx said:


> just curious- who, exactly, are the losers?


American taxpayers


----------



## ddkay

Biggest product recall in history coming soon? quite a few people are reporting overheating, especially after running games. Ouch..


----------



## brad

That wouldn't surprise me. As a long-time consumer of Apple products I've always been a little shocked at their below-average QA/QC and apparent lack of thorough testing before rushing products to market; I thought they had that licked but maybe not. My current MacBook Pro, bought in 2008, and my iPad are the only two of the many Apple products I've bought since 1985 that didn't either come with signficant hardware problems or develop them within the first year. I normally never buy extended warranties, but I make an exception for Apple; ironically I didn't make the decision to start buying Apple Care until I bought my current Mac, which has been 100% problem-free for the past four years.


----------



## kcowan

kcowan said:


> At current prices, their PE is approaching that of Google. There has been a long term tracking of the PE between the two but Google has always had the premium.


Here is another comparison to Google:








But then it ignores everything* but the chart.

* Dividends, Buybacks, Dominance in multiple segments beyond just one!


----------



## kcowan

ddkay said:


> American taxpayers


So are you against Microsoft too?


----------



## ddkay

Yes, any company that's afraid to repatriate offshore cash "until tax laws change [in their favour]" are worthless.. why don't they buy an island and and move there in isolation instead of leaching the public resources of sunny California where the state is struggling to fill their budget gap?


----------



## GOB

I can't speak from personal experience but I'm pretty sure this overheating issue is way overblown and will be forgotten about in a couple of weeks. It's tradition that the launch of a new hyped up Apple products comes with either ridicule or a minor flaw that gets overblown by the media. 

From what I've read, the new iPad runs 5-10 degrees hotter than the iPad 2. It's only a concern if it's uncomfortably or dangerously hot though, and that remains to be seen. It also might be affecting a small percentage of units which is to be expected with any product that sells in the millions. 

Give it time and the truth will come out. I doubt there will be a product recall - I've read a lot of reviews and this issue has not really come up, and I'd imagine they test the device to its full processing and graphical capability.


----------



## GOB

It's called being tax efficient, something every person and company paying taxes is entitled to (and should) do.


----------



## brad

Re: overheating -- it now appears that if you run down the battery and then restart, the problem goes away. Restarting may itself be all that's needed; the current hypothesis is that there's a "rogue process" going on that is very processor-intensive; restarting the iPad stops it. It's probably something that can be fixed with a software or firmware update.


----------



## kcowan

ddkay said:


> Yes, any company that's afraid to repatriate offshore cash "until tax laws change [in their favour]" are worthless.. why don't they buy an island and and move there in isolation instead of leaching the public resources of sunny California where the state is struggling to fill their budget gap?


They don't have to buy an island. They could just relocate their headquarters to the Caymens like many other corporations have done.

Personally, I am pleased that they have chosen to spend so much of their domestic profits in support of their long-term shareholders. It will attract other long-term shareholders as buyers. Even Kevin O'Leary rejoiced that he could now hold them...


----------



## indexxx

ddkay said:


> Biggest product recall in history coming soon? quite a few people are reporting overheating, especially after running games. Ouch..


WTF? Why would you even post something like this. There is no 'recall coming soon'.

http://news.yahoo.com/apple-on-new-ipad-heat-issue--it-s-not-as-hot-as-you-think.html


----------



## indexxx

ddkay said:


> Yes, any company that's afraid to repatriate offshore cash "until tax laws change [in their favour]" are worthless.. why don't they buy an island and and move there in isolation instead of leaching the public resources of sunny California where the state is struggling to fill their budget gap?


Yes, you read it here first- Apple is worthless!!


----------



## humble_pie

who knew the end would be incineration

sartre's No Exit for 2012
alone for eternity on coral reef w ipad2 & kevin o/leary


----------



## indexxx

kcowan said:


> They don't have to buy an island. They could just relocate their headquarters to the Caymens like many other corporations have done.
> 
> Personally, I am pleased that they have chosen to spend so much of their domestic profits in support of their long-term shareholders. It will attract other long-term shareholders as buyers. Even Kevin O'Leary rejoiced that he could now hold them...


Yes, it's called being smart with your money. I have cash in the Caymans- I lived there for five years and earned it tax-free as a non-resident of Canada. Why should Aapl lose multiple billions by repatriating their cash? It's their money, and nobody else's. 

I think the dividend is a smart move, as it won't really tap even their domestic reserves very much- the divvy can come out of coming profits. it adds value and desirability to the stock. I'm happy to pick up a little cash from them every quarter!

As far as 'leaching the public resources'- hmmm- I'd guess they pay a few dollars for their operation costs in Cupertino, as well as employing all those people who pay large amounts of tax, and throwing business off into tertiaries like transport ... But yr right- move their headquarters to an island. What America needs is fewer major employers right about now.


----------



## GOB

Don't worry - the ridiculousness of the explanations for people bearish on Apple just makes me even happier to be long.


----------



## ddkay

Announcing a share buyback after a meteoric rise is being smart with your money? afaik that's usually something companies reserve for when their stock takes a beating

And if Cayman was treating you so well, what are you doing back here? you should have settled there permanently. Sociopaths..


----------



## ddkay

indexxx said:


> WTF? Why would you even post something like this. There is no 'recall coming soon'.


It could have been FUD spread by competitors.. who knows...


----------



## humble_pie

even scarier

alone on a coral atoll w iPad2 & gob
eternity passes & gobbie still talkin apple ...


----------



## humble_pie

a security risk in new cmf forum version v.bulletin 4.0 seems to be that it's possible to hijack IDs.

ddkay is not the same person
older
grumpier.


----------



## ddkay

I see way too much nutsy-ness in here. If you want to talk about Apple, it's worthy mentioning what Apple customers are saying about their new iPad. That includes unfortunate things like overheating issues under stress conditions and the possibility of a product recall. It wouldn't be the first time.

AAPLs market cap has increased 30 billion in 6 days. If they are selling 1 billion worth of new iPads a day, shouldn't that be about 6 billion? lol...

There are other stocks worthy of praise but this is the most popular on every investment forum. BAC is up 76% YTD and probably has just as much fuel left as AAPL. The gains were all fueled by the same stuff anyway.


----------



## jcgd

Edit: old news


----------



## GOB

No product is perfect. What is so hard to understand about a few users having issues with a product that sells millions of units? That's called normal. Go to any forum for any device made by any company. Go ahead and tell me what you see. Any problems with newly launched Apple products are inevitably blown out of proportion due to the attention they get. Use your head and look at past events instead of blindly making assumptions based on what the media is leading you to believe. This goes for positives and negatives.

Yes, it seems it gets a bit warmer than the iPad 2. So what? From what I've read it doesn't seem too hot to be used or pose danger or anything like that, and there is a good chance a software update can improve things. To immediately suggest a recall may be imminent is ludicrous. Possible? Yes. Probable? Not at all.

Regarding the buyback, it's $10 billion compared to a market cap of about $600 billion. That's under 2%. The purpose of the buyback isn't to directly improve shareholder value as many non-growth companies do, but to simply maintain shareholder value by preventing dilution. Also, Apple has not said when the buybacks are going to occur - over the next three years is all they've said. I don't think anybody knows what share prices Apple will execute their buybacks - you certainly don't and I certainly don't. To say Apple missed the boat on buybacks is backwards looking. What if Apple does buybacks at $600 and next year we're at $800 (quite possible)? What if Apple drops to $450 and they do the buyback at that point? Would getting authorization for it now have been a bad idea?

I really wish people would get their facts straight instead of making quantum leaps based on misinterpretation of information.


----------



## dave2012

I've read those threads. So it runs a bit hotter than the iPad2. It has a bigger battery and requires more to power that super hi-rez screen. Didn't see issue with people complaining about it not working, 'blue' screens etc so I'm not worried. I can just imagine their testing facilities the day after iPad does on sale... "Darn we forgot to touch this thing to see if it runs hot guys!"

Hey you should feel the fm radio in my Yukon... now THAT runs hot!!

Nuttiness welcome in thread 7350 !


----------



## Sampson

Hell is another tablet.


----------



## indexxx

ddkay said:


> And if Cayman was treating you so well, what are you doing back here? you should have settled there permanently. Sociopaths..


Not that it's any of your business; but foreign citizens cannot reside permanently in the Cayman Islands unless granted status- and it's difficult to get. Why 'should' I have settled there permanently? Maybe I got tired of hurricanes, or insects, or just got bored on a tiny island rife with religious fervour and greed. It's also possible that I had other, more personal reasons for wishing to return to Canada. And I certainly would not call someone I have never met a sociopath- unless they were attacking strangers on a discussion forum...

Anyway, back to reality- Go, Apple, Go!!!


----------



## andrewf

I don't see heat being an issue unless it makes it uncomfortable to use or affects performance/durability. This is less of a concern than the iPhone antenna issue, for instance.

It is, I suppose, another consideration in the purchase decision. If you don't mind the mediocre screen on the iPad 2, it tilts the decision in favour of that model. Most users don't use 3G/LTE, so the addition of the latter will only appeal to a minority of the market.


----------



## Lucy

Oops. I like my screen on my IPad 2.


----------



## brad

Yeah, I think the screen on the iPad2 is only mediocre if you compare it with the screen on the iPad3. That's why I'm going great lengths to avoid ever looking at an iPad3. 

Seriously, though, the screen on the iPad2 is just fine, I look at photos and watch movies on it and it looks as sharp or sharper than my laptop's screen.


----------



## dave2012

How about AAPL at $1,650 by the end of 2015?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/03/21/why-apple-will-hit-1650-by-the-end-of-2015/


----------



## GOB

Earnings predictions from one of the best Apple analysts with a proven track record:

http://www.asymco.com/2012/03/21/estimates-for-apples-second-fiscal-2012-quarter/

People saying Apple can't grow more because they're already too big are funny. Look at the market share of each of their product lines, look at the demand for each of their product lines, and the theory that Apple can't grow much more soon becomes laughable. People have been saying this for way too long now and missed out on huge gains.

Eventually growth will slow or end. Not anytime soon though.


----------



## indexxx

One from the other side of the fence-

http://seekingalpha.com/article/449801-apple-momentum-waning?source=marketwatch

Of course, I'd love a correction so I can add more shares. But I feel that by this point, any significant drop below $600 will only trigger more intensified buying, driving it up again. 

Appy LongStocking...


----------



## Argonaut

This thread makes me feel like GOBbing for AAPLes.


----------



## humble_pie

argo pls don't dip your head too far, there has to be plenty $$ in aapl vertical put spreads.

i don't have any myself but might bob for em soon ...


----------



## Argonaut

Yes, those interest me and the common stock does not. My current put spread is so deep in the barrel, one cannot GOB for it any longer.


----------



## humble_pie

it sounds perfect. Something so deep you'd have to roll up your sleeve & plunge in the whole arm.

after that, it's amazing how low-maintenance these things are, wouldn't you say. I mean, one keeps that barrel around forever. Every year, another crop of apples. Not too much to think about.

(signed)
not an apple pie


----------



## indexxx

Interesting idea for iPads...

http://www.solawerks.com/reserve.html


----------



## indexxx

And then there's this article on selling Apple for the short term:

http://www.eresearch.ca/_report/APPL_031612-T.pdf


----------



## GOB

New all-time highs today. The train is still chugging along. I wonder how many shorts are having to cover - very dangerous to short a stock with this much momentum.


----------



## killuminati

Does this mean anything?

http://www.cultofmac.com/156738/apple-execs-cash-in-314-million-in-stock-in-last-few-days/

If news should send the stock higher... why sell so many shares now?


----------



## dave2012

I guess Tim is going to be building a new mansion! What portion of his shares did he sell?


----------



## groceryalerts

I am not sure my limit to sell this stock (in my wife's TFSA). Would make a nice return now - but am eagerly awaiting next iPhone release.


----------



## donald

^ I'm in the same boat.Sitting on a 6k profit(sheer craziness,ive only held for 7 mth on 25 shares)That upcoming div makes me alittle more comfortable.....I should really take my profit and wind it down to my org book vaule,I can't hit the sell button...not yet.


----------



## GOB

While it's never a terrible idea to book some huge gains, look at this this way if you're questioning it:

Pretend that Apple is a private company with no stock history launching an IPO soon. All their financials over the past years are known, as are their growth projections. What would you value the company at? What multiple would you assign it?

This kind of analysis helps me sleep at night. Apple could plummet tomorrow, but I wouldn't panic because I know the fundamentals of the company are incredibly strong, and it's only a matter of time before the stock reflects it. The fact that it is priced as if little or no further growth will occur is also comforting, because I know that's wrong and it does limit the downside. This was my thinking all the way back in the $300s, and nothing has changed.


----------



## donald

I hear ya gob.My main concern for myself is of the emotional kind,i sense it's on it's last leg before a downdraft and for me it gets harder.Emotions and keeping posie.I still like everything the same as i did when i bought my shares(jobs was still alive thou) but.......fear & greed!Hanging tough in pullbacks are'nt comfy.


----------



## dave2012

Where do these guys come from? lol.

"Apple is a “fad” or a “hit” company, meaning that its price seems to correlate to new product launches rather than the sustainable development of key product lines."

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/03/30/...pples-stock-could-be-the-short-of-a-lifetime/

Right... Apple better come up with some product lines!


----------



## ddkay

Why bother reading that? AAPL is the most liquid stock in the market, penny stock news letter hit pieces from washed up analysts aren't going to do anything to move price


----------



## phrenk

Would it be crazy to buy a put on Apple at these levels ? I don't think so and think it's a good idea given Apple's low volatility but would like some input before going forward. Seems like every hedge fund and investor outhere is pumping this stock. I have a feeling that when liquidity will be needed (margin requirements, deleveraging,etc), Apple will be the first stock to go down as investors sell it.


----------



## GOB

RIM is phasing out of the consumer market and this is great news for Apple judging by the latest trends:










It looks like Apple is taking up most of RIM's lost market, and Android is stagnating. iPhone 5 (or whatever it's called) is going to be absolutely massive.


----------



## ddkay

GOB said:


> RIM is phasing out of the consumer market


More like the consumer market is phasing out of RIM, but no this was just a rumour that was denied this morning


----------



## GOB

ddkay said:


> More like the consumer market is phasing out of RIM, but no this was just a rumour that was denied this morning


This is where I got it from:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-maker-cede-most-consumer-212323407.html

"We plan to refocus on the enterprise business and capitalize on our leading position in this segment," Heins said. "We believe that BlackBerry cannot succeed if we tried to be everybody's darling and all things to all people. Therefore, we plan to build on our strength."

In any case, you are right. Focus or not, RIM is bleeding share and Apple is taking it, almost exclusively.


----------



## Jon_Snow

So many analysts are convinced that Apple to $1000 is a sure thing. Would any of you buy 100k of Apple if you had that kind of cash sitting around? Do you agree that apple to $1000 is a no brainer?


----------



## HaroldCrump

Jon_Snow said:


> So many analysts are convinced that Apple to $1000 is a sure thing. Would any of you buy 100k of Apple if you had that kind of cash sitting around? Do you agree that apple to $1000 is a no brainer?


They talked about this on the Lang O'Leary Exchange this evening, and Amanda Lang has officially shorted Apple stock on public televsion.
They also showed a chart comparing the peak and then the crash of the NASDAQ and the Housing Index.


----------



## ddkay

I would like to see Apple plateau at $650 and then roll over with the rest of the market, but that scenario doesn't have to happen.

Sure Apple looks toppy, but people are "supposed" to short weakness not strength. There are much more compelling shorts in the market right now. The usual suspects - Greece, Italy, Spain and emerging markets, Brazil China and even Canada's TSX have much worse relative performance than US equities. There are better places to focus overvalued thesis and not get hurt.


----------



## ddkay

3 reasons Aswath Damodaran is selling Apple http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.ca/2012/04/apple-holding-versus-folding.html


----------



## andrewf

I don't understand his rationale.


----------



## GOB

Jon_Snow said:


> So many analysts are convinced that Apple to $1000 is a sure thing. Would any of you buy 100k of Apple if you had that kind of cash sitting around? Do you agree that apple to $1000 is a no brainer?


It's pretty much a no-brainer to me. The only question is how long will it take. It's not that lofty of a target anymore - it's 59% away from the current price, but AAPL is up 55% YTD (3 months). Growth continues at an astounding pace, and valuation remains amazingly low. 

If AAPL split 10:1, would people be freaking out about it hitting $100? Or if $1 trillion was just another number with no real significance? A lot of the "fear" is psychological - the actual performance of the company is showing no signs that the run won't continue. Of course, there will be ups and downs in between. 

Apple won't be the best performing stock going forward. It will be (one of) the best choices for the long term investor who wants growth without taking on a lot of risk. There is only so much AAPL can drop given its already low valuation, and so much to gain.


----------



## ddkay

If you were able to give long term projections with confidence, would you be a gazillionaire? I think Apple's rise has nothing to do with fundamentals and everything to do with US money velocity problems


----------



## GOB

ddkay said:


> If you were able to give long term projections with confidence, would you be a gazillionaire? I think Apple's rise has nothing to do with fundamentals and everything to do with US money velocity problems


That's a silly strawman argument. 

1) I never said I could confidently give long term projections about any other stock - only AAPL and my confidence only became "strong" when the stock was around $300. The fact I am able to give a confident projection about a single company I know a lot about and spend a lot of time researching doesn't mean I can do it at will for everything. Investing in a stock that goes from $300 to $1000 isn't going to turn anyone into a rags to riches story. It's an excellent profit though. 

2) I didn't have enough starting capital to become a "gazillionaire" or even a "billionaire" - millionaire maybe one day. 

Never have I implied AAPL is going to make anyone a sudden (or even a long term) "gazillionaire" - merely that it's one of the best options for a long term trader looking for growth with limited company-specific downside.

If you think AAPL's rise has nothing to do with fundamentals...I have nothing to say to that. It's ridiculous. Are you implying that the fundamentals aren't good, or that they don't matter? Neither are correct. Yes, the broader economy and monetary policy have a large effect on all stocks, but to claim that nothing else matters means you should pick your stocks out of a hat, or just buy/sell SPY or something similar.


----------



## ddkay

GOB said:


> but to claim that nothing else matters means you should pick your stocks out of a hat, or just buy/sell SPY or something similar.


Hah that's in fact exactly what I believe, for any reasonably liquid security after 2008. Look at housing stocks for example - XHB, up huge YTD, but actual US economic housing data and housing loan data is not improving and actually getting worse. Who can explain that?

It's a stimulus bubble, and I'll agree Apple is among the well run and well positioned companies to benefit most from Ctrl+P

Easy money is wearing off in other countries, European spreads are slowly widening again, you can see significant capital outflows in EWJ, EWZ, EWP, EQI, GREK the last few weeks. It should (but no guarantees) catch up to Apple eventually.


----------



## kcowan

I n


HaroldCrump said:


> They talked about this on the Lang O'Leary Exchange this evening, and Amanda Lang has officially shorted Apple stock on public televsion.
> They also showed a chart comparing the peak and then the crash of the NASDAQ and the Housing Index.


I noticed that she did not specifiy a timeframe so not like an option. Also she did it when KO was not there because he would have had someting to say about it.

The comparison to NASDAQ 2000 is just coincidence. There are no other similarities. Such is the joy of charting!


----------



## HaroldCrump

kcowan said:


> I nI noticed that she did not specifiy a timeframe so not like an option.


She said 1 year.
After 1 year, she will evaluate (on TV) how much money she made/lost.


----------



## ddkay

Hey these actually don't look that bad: Google begins testing its augmented reality glasses



> There are reportedly dozens of other shapes and variations of the glasses in the works, some of which can sit over a person’s normal eyeglasses.


----------



## andrewf

Cool. Though I expect it will take another 5 years before they are actually useful. They still look kinda goofy, but better than the Steve Mann specials from the 1990's and 2000's:










Also note how important it is to show them on attractive people, rather than ugly CS profs (no offense intended to Mann).


----------



## ddkay

They'll probably need Facebook integration, none of this Google+ nonesense. Otherwise only nerdy fat guys that get laughed at will buy them.


----------



## andrewf

Google+ is to Facebook as MSN is to Gmail Chat circa 2006 for me.

The people I want to talk to are on Google+, the people who just added me to juice their friend counts and I met once at a party (you know, a 'friend') are on Facebook.


----------



## indexxx

not to be rude, but wow, that girl... gulp...


----------



## ddkay

there was a lot of hype for gmail invites for the first few years. I got my account in late 2004 from a google nerd and the only people I invited with my 5 invites that took forever to replenish were also nerds. It was Facebook before anybody could join it, but because its e-mail you could obviously still contact people on different networks. Google+ just hasn't caught on the same way yet. However I still see a lot of people posting to it and that's a little encouraging.


----------



## indexxx

Good news for us Apple longs...

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/as...D2A5192#!9B8C2029-70B8-4B60-AB9B-8595CD2A5192

"46 percent of corporations are issuing Macs to employees"


----------



## andrewf

I suspect that is not the same thing as 46% marketshare among corporate customers. If two people in the graphics department have Macs, well... Windows boxes outnumber Macs at my company probably on the 1000x scale, but it would be counted amongst the 46%.


----------



## dave2012

andrewf said:


> I suspect that is not the same thing as 46% marketshare among corporate customers. If two people in the graphics department have Macs, well... Windows boxes outnumber Macs at my company probably on the 1000x scale, but it would be counted amongst the 46%.


Exactly. With more corporations 'introducing' employees to Macs, there is excellent potential to convert the Windows box people to Macs. With Apples current low market share in the biz world, there is ton of upside!

Think of all the productivity gains we'll have in the economy! :encouragement:


----------



## andrewf

Well, that's one way to see a silver lining. I see no indication that my company is considering rolling out Macs. The infrastructure plan involves migrating to Windows 7 when Windows XP is no longer supported. I don't see a compelling reason for the company to consider Macs. The hardware cost is much higher compared to Lenovo, all the proprietary apps are designed for Windows, all the infrastructure is designed to support Windows boxes. It would be a major expense to convert OS, for no compelling reason. Most users are using Microsoft Office suite, which works at least as well on Windows as on Mac, if not better.


----------



## Argonaut

Apple now worth more than Google on a nominal share price basis. :rapture:


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> It would be a major expense to convert OS, for no compelling reason.


That's correct, and when friends ask me if they should switch from Windows to Mac I always tell them no, unless for some reason they absolutely cannot stand Windows anymore (which sometime happens, although it has been known to happen the other way as well). Switching operating systems is a huge pain, and even switching from Windows XP to Windows 7 is a major headache for most users (I've helped five people now through the switch, including my sister who works at a big corporation that did the upgrade recently). Switching from earlier versions of Microsoft Office to Office 2007 or 2010 has caused big productivity drops initially, although once people get used to the new interface they do fine. It's the productivity hit during the transition that's tough.

I don't see the big growth opportunity for Macs in corporations that currently run Windows. I see the opportunity lying in the millions of corporations that are yet to be founded...many of them by young entrepreneurs who used Macs at university. Macs are perfectly capable corporate machines; I worked in a Mac-only nonprofit back in the late 1980s, and my brother works at a huge Mac-only university. Many smaller companies are Mac only, and some of those companies will grow to be big companies. That's where the growth potential is, but I don't see it happening in the next few years.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Well, that's one way to see a silver lining. I see no indication that my company is considering rolling out Macs. The infrastructure plan involves migrating to Windows 7 when Windows XP is no longer supported. I don't see a compelling reason for the company to consider Macs. The hardware cost is much higher compared to Lenovo, all the proprietary apps are designed for Windows, all the infrastructure is designed to support Windows boxes. It would be a major expense to convert OS, for no compelling reason. Most users are using Microsoft Office suite, which works at least as well on Windows as on Mac, if not better.


Whatever your specific company does, there is no denying that the BYOD phenomenon is bringing in increasing numbers of iPhones, iPads and Macs into the workplace. IT will have no choice but to support these devices, and once IT supports it it becomes even easier for more iOS/OSX devices to be added. 

Of course, there are many companies where it makes sense to hang onto Windows, but there are also many where it doesn't. Huge numbers of teens and young adults have used nothing but Macs - do you think it makes sense to force them to use a totally foreign and more complicated operating system? It's the same reason why Windows has been so entrenched for so long. 

Numbers don't lie. I cited several articles about Macs in the corporate space. That was probably close to a year ago now - I imagine the current numbers are even more impressive now.


----------



## kcowan

The thing is that in large companies, the IT department knows Windows and their continued employment relies on continued usage. That will limit Macs in the enterprise. Sure execs can have their iPhones. But that is different than the mainstream corporate apps. If companies like IBM and Oracle start supporting Macs for their corporate apps than you will see some migration.

Besides, we don't want to see Apple with massive supply shortages. Slow and steady wins the race...


----------



## Causalien

Wow... The iphone Killer: Google glass. Actually looks cool. Now, if they can come up with a good name and its set. http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2012/04/google-augmented-reality-lady.jpg


----------



## brad

kcowan said:


> The thing is that in large companies, the IT department knows Windows and their continued employment relies on continued usage. That will limit Macs in the enterprise.


True, although a lot of big companies already support both operating systems if they have any graphic designers in the house, since many designers still prefer Macs even though the current leading design program (InDesign) has been cross-platform from the start. The company I work for is primarily Windows but we do have about 400 Macs and our IT department supports them.

I also think the point has been made above that the growth opportunity for Macs is probably less in existing corporations than in the emerging ones started and run by a younger generation who grew up with Macs. For example, Google reportedly phased out of Windows last year and is now Mac and Linux only.


----------



## indexxx

Causalien said:


> Wow... The iphone Killer: Google glass. Actually looks cool. Now, if they can come up with a good name and its set. http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2012/04/google-augmented-reality-lady.jpg


I think 'iphone killer' might be stretching it a bit... It's probably a neat product, and might work really well. But how many people are actually going to walk around all day with this on their face?


----------



## ddkay

Haha, sounds like RIMs last words "people don't really want touch screen phones" I already walk around all day with something like that on my face, I just need some kind of stylish clip on


----------



## andrewf

It would be substantially heavier than traditional eyeglasses.


----------



## Causalien

The reason why I am saying this is the iphone killer is because the functionality competes with iPhone. Also, google has all the data necessary already for all the app mentioned in the Promo video. I can't imagine Apple acquire enough IP in a short enough time span to compete with this.

Take the fact that all technology becomes fashion in order to display stature, this will eventually do just that. It is different and stylish, it will cost a lot and it shows that the person has a lot more tools at his disposal than a normal non glass wearing person. Just like the signature iphone earbud used to tell people about the expensive piece of aluminium that is in a person's pocket. Iphone users gets laid more. It is a statistical fact.


----------



## indexxx

Causalien said:


> The reason why I am saying this is the iphone killer is because the functionality competes with iPhone. Also, google has all the data necessary already for all the app mentioned in the Promo video. I can't imagine Apple acquire enough IP in a short enough time span to compete with this.
> 
> Take the fact that all technology becomes fashion in order to display stature, this will eventually do just that. It is different and stylish, it will cost a lot and it shows that the person has a lot more tools at his disposal than a normal non glass wearing person. Just like the signature iphone earbud used to tell people about the expensive piece of aluminium that is in a person's pocket. Iphone users gets laid more. It is a statistical fact.


I agree with some of what you say here, but I honestly don't see that it's really a practical item that would be adopted on a large scale by the public- simply because it's something you have to wear on your face. If it's a clip-on, fine- but then you're limited to those who wear glasses. The thing about a smartphone or something similar is that it can be stowed in your pocket until you want it. I'm in no way dismissing the technology or its usefulness, only that this current design, while it looks cool, is just not a universal appeal type product IMHO.


----------



## GOB

I am extremely skeptical of anything labeled as an iPod/iPhone/iPad killer. There have been literally hundreds of products that have tried and failed magnificently.


----------



## brad

There will be one eventually, but the Google glasses aren't it by a long shot. I kind of doubt there will be a single "iPod killer," but rather the competition will keep gradually eating away at Apple's market share. In the meantime iPhone will continue to command a healthy share of the market, and it's always worth remembering that even a small share of a big market still translates to enormous revenues. And of course Apple won't stand still; they'll continue to innovate.

I still think that everyone who's expecting major redesigns of the iPhone doesn't understand how Apple works. The basic design works so well that it's hard to imagine a redesign that wouldn't place form over function, and Apple tends to treat form and function as equals. Design is important, but they try not to let design get in the way of usability.


----------



## humble_pie

as locators the glasses are scary.

there's already an app causing a flap which tracks & displays all the females of, say, a certain age who are right this minute in the neighbourhood of, say, an interested party. Whose interest may not always be benign. The app shows photos, favourites, data from facebook, location of the most recent text or call. Then the voyeur can start to make his move.

i don't know if this is the Where Are my Friends app or another one that is more specialized. I do know that it's distressing many parents. The phone doesn't have to be on. The app tracks to the location of the last call or text.


----------



## Dibs

HP, I'm not sure if we are talking about the same app, but there was a "Girls around me" app recently in the news. It matched public facebook profiles with recently checked in locations on FourSquare and displayed detailed info on girls around you. FourSquare has since revoked the app's API access and Apple has removed it from their store.

Unfortunately this does not stop the actual problem, which is that people are giving out too much public information that can be exploited for malicious purposes.

http://www.cultofmac.com/157641/thi...ge-its-a-wake-up-call-about-facebook-privacy/


----------



## ddkay

644


----------



## kcowan

ddkay said:


> 644


But only in the morning. $600 billion too...


----------



## m3s

Dibs said:


> Unfortunately this does not stop the actual problem, which is that people are giving out too much public information that can be exploited for malicious purposes.


Exactly. All apps have to ask permission to use GPS data, and social networks have privacy settings. To exploit this info people have to share it themselves first. The CIA isn't even allowed to put tracking devices on criminal's cars anymore, and the military can't use their sensors anywhere near private residences etc for privacy concerns. People often overreact about technology and privacy yet they walk around in plain site in public all the time?.. Maybe girls should cover their faces like Arabs to avoid the stalkers?


----------



## ddkay

Check out these new kicks


----------



## dave2012

ddkay said:


> Check out these new kicks


OMG! Another Apple product! Targets revised to $1200!


----------



## CashMoney101

dave2012 said:


> OMG! Another Apple product! Targets revised to $1200!


^ thread over ^


----------



## sam

$608 , what's going on ?


----------



## ddkay

ECB said they are very far from resuming government bond buying, they need to see a broken secondary market to step back in with SMP.

Apple sauce :topsy_turvy:

Don't worry though, we're minutes away from another bailout.


----------



## indexxx

sam said:


> $608 , what's going on ?


I'm hoping for a big correction near-term, like to $550 so I can accumulate more shares.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

indexxx said:


> I'm hoping for a big correction near-term, like to $550 so I can accumulate more shares.


Impossible. That would mean humble_pie gets his a** handed to him on that put spread. And we know that can't happen :stupid:


----------



## dave2012

indexxx said:


> I'm hoping for a big correction near-term, like to $550 so I can accumulate more shares.


How about $585? Panic sellers are active today... buy buy buy!


----------



## GOB

I might start getting into some LEAPS soon ahead of earnings


----------



## kcowan

8% correction in one week from its all-time high. Looks like a bargain!


----------



## Ihatetaxes

I bought some more this morning at $591.44, quite a bit more than I paid for shares back in Feb ($520) but I still see this stock headed higher. As I worked out this morning using my 7 year old iPod shuffle that still looks and works like new with a battery that still lasts FOREVER, I thought about what great products Apple makes.


----------



## dave2012

Bought 10 @ $585.00 yesterday. Sold today for $598.90. Netted $125 after trading costs. I am already maxed out on AAPL (about 11% of portfolio) so didn't want to hold.
After this pasts week plunge, I'll be trimming my main holdings to lock in some fantastic gains since 2006. Should have done that a few weeks ago after such a crazy run up... my bad.


----------



## PMREdmonton

No one ever went broke locking in some profits.

I bought on the dip last year to 315. I held to 600 and then sold.

I will now wait for another dip or stay out of it. Just too much froth right now - I can't invest in froth. I prefer to invest where there is anger, dejection and despair out of proportion to the actual functioning and long-term outlook for the company. I am thinking about Peyto or Encana in Canada and CHK in the USA.

If WPT corrects to 30 I'll probably buy a tranche.


----------



## dave2012

Wow. Another wild trip down for AAPL today. Bought another 10 @ $585 on the 2:30pm trough. Will sell once it pops back up, then wait for the next panic sell off.


----------



## killuminati

dave2012 said:


> Wow. Another wild trip down for AAPL today. Bought another 10 @ $585 on the 2:30pm trough. Will sell once it pops back up, then wait for the next panic sell off.


Targets haven't changed... in fact they are still going up.

Good time to buy.


----------



## dave2012

Very true. I'm still long on our main AAPL holding but see the craziness as a chance to make some extra gain on the wild swings. I'm comfortable being in/out with 10 shares at a time, especially with the stock down 10% from its peak.


----------



## gibor365

killuminati said:


> Targets haven't changed... in fact they are still going up.
> 
> Good time to buy.


Not true  Target is increased :encouragement:




> On Thursday, five analysts updated their views on the stock, with one of them actually raising the target price: Canaccord Genuity raised its target to $740 from $710. The other four analysts maintained their targets on the stock.
> 
> That follows Wednesday’s move by Goldman Sachs, when it raised its target on Apple to $750 from $700.
> 
> As well, Bloomberg News reported that Henderson Global Investors said that Apple is “extremely undervalued” and should rise to $1,200 – without specifying a time frame


----------



## indexxx

dave2012 said:


> Wow. Another wild trip down for AAPL today. Bought another 10 @ $585 on the 2:30pm trough. Will sell once it pops back up, then wait for the next panic sell off.


I jumped in way too soon. After the last five day drop it recovered a bit- I thought it was going to stay above 600 until the earnings report, so i added some at 600. Oh well even a run to 700 this year is over 15% from here. I made a bit on last weeks dip.


----------



## dave2012

Not done with the panic sellers yet. Hit $574 briefly which brings the stock down 11% off its high of $644. Should be interesting next week when earnings come out!


----------



## indexxx

hit 570 today... Why so much selling just before earnings release? Q2 has always been a blowout for Apple


----------



## dave2012

Definitely crazy. You just never know. Its a solid company and still under valued... Who knows, maybe more panic selling then a good earnings report and it will pop up 10-15%? The media is pretty useless and varies between calling this 2001 all over again to $1500 targets. Go figure.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few weeks!


----------



## gibor365

Some weird stuff ..... First were released article "Hagens Berman: Lawsuit Claims Wide Range of Apple Devices Infringe Patents for Screen Manipulation -- AAPL", than "ADVISORY-Please ignore alert from Hagens Berman on Apple
3 hours ago by Thomson Reuters
Reuters terminal users - Please ignore the alert "Press Release- Hagens Berman: Lawsuit Claims Wide Range Of Apple Devices Infringe Patents For Screen Manipulation -- AAPL" as it was inadvertently issued. The press release was from Hagens Berman LLP."
WTF is going on???


----------



## dave2012

Those lawsuits are petty cash in the big scheme of things. Shouldn't effect the stock at all.


----------



## CashMoney101

dave2012 said:


> Those lawsuits are petty cash in the big scheme of things. Shouldn't effect the stock at all.


Tell that to Eastman Kodak


----------



## GOB

Typical games being played pre-earnings. Not sweating over it - this is a great opportunity to buy some stock or LEAPS, or near term calls in case of a blowout (more risky). 

11% off the highs, earnings will likely show 75+% growth YOY, and the cash in the bank and upcoming dividend will likely put a floor on the stock above $500, or 2% yield. Downside is limited barring a market-wide crash, upside remains incredibly attractive.

I've entered a few bull put spreads around the $500 mark expiring next month for some very easy and substantial income considering the risk. If it does drop to those levels I'll eat the loss and back up the truck at that point. The likelihood of a further 14% drop in a month is not high, but if it does happen I will never have been happier to have lost money.


----------



## sam

is AAPL a good buy @570 ?


----------



## PMREdmonton

maybe? 

I"d be more comfortable going back in at the 525-550 range.

I do think Apple is a good investment in the medium term but I have strong concerns about margin erosion over time leading to a marked capital loss for its investors. Maybe I'm wrong but consumer electronics has a strong history of one company dominating for awhile and then another one comes along with something cooler and so on. All the tech that stays out there for awhile becomes commodotized quickly. Smartphones and tablets haven't yet gone through a commodotization cycle but it may be coming in the next 2-3 years. If the telcos decrease subsidization of the phones their market share could plummet in NA. They only have 10% in Europe, for example where subsidies are atypical.


----------



## kcowan

PMREdmonton said:


> Smartphones and tablets haven't yet gone through a commoditization cycle but it may be coming in the next 2-3 years...


I bought my Samsung Galaxy Gingerbread for $67 and people have been getting deals on Kindle Fires and Playbooks et al. So when does this pricing cycle occur to bring down the price of the iPhone and iPad?


----------



## ddkay

Prices will come down when carrier subsidies end. By adding a CDMA iPhone/iPad for Sprint in Q3 last year Apple absorbed millions of new customers through Sprint (phones sold for $200 on 2Yr terms) and also China Unicom (phones sold for $0 on 3Yr terms). Apple could get another parabolic rise in sales if they create an AWS iPhone for T-Mobile (this would also work w/ all Canadian new entrants). Many T-mobile subscribers are defecting to other carriers BECAUSE they offer iPhones. iPhone ownership is a big status symbol in America. For example, now platform exclusivity for Instagram is removed if you search you'll see lots of animosity between Android and iPhone users. AWS will be the last market to exploit under the old 3.5G/HSPA standard. LTE and LTE/A will bring many more hurdles over frequency support (there are 4x as many non-overlapping allocations worldwide) and the market will again be limit to which carrier is large enough to pay Apple for a custom antenna design. Roaming on LTE will also become impossible, even in the same country it will be difficult to change networks without changing hardware. We are seeing this already with the iPad 3 LTE - in NA LTE is sold on 2 separate models either for A) Verizon or B) ATT/Rogers/Bell/Telus. If you bring model A to model B's network you fallback to reduced 3G speeds.


----------



## PMREdmonton

kcowan said:


> I bought my Samsung Galaxy Gingerbread for $67 and people have been getting deals on Kindle Fires and Playbooks et al. So when does this pricing cycle occur to bring down the price of the iPhone and iPad?


When consumer sentiment to this type of electronic changes and as competitors produce at increasing scale and decreasing cost. We can already see that Samsung has reached this scale now and is selling as many smartphones as Apple.

Android now has double the market of Apple worldwide after starting from nil in 2009.

The competitors have already caught up to the point that Apple devices are not superior anymore in any major way according to many of the review sites. 

Anyhow, my argument is largely historical - it has happened to every other device in consumer electronics. There are no real moats in this field. Something is hot for awhile and then something else comes along and steals a good chunk of the market. I think Motorola has had about 3 cycles on top of this market and maybe they'll rise again now that they are being absorbed within Google.

This is obviously the overhang on this stock. Otherwise growth stocks don't trade with these metrics - it never happens. It has happened because the market doesn't believe Apple's dominance and margins will be sustainable in the long run. This belief keeps this stock down.


----------



## indexxx

What are people's thoughts on Aapl share price before and after earnings report on Tuesday?


----------



## PMREdmonton

Usually Apple does not react much to earnings. The last two times were anomalies where a miss in the fall lead to the stock cratering some and creating a great buying opportunity. Last time it beat and there was a quick pop and then it ground up another 35% before the correction set it.

In general, Apple doesn't react much to earnings. This could be a good time to sell a put around 525 or 550 but you have to be nimble not to get assigned if the trade goes against you. If you want to buy in and could afford the 100 shares you can sell the 550 put for April 27 for 12.15. If Apple's stock stays above 550 you get $1215 for one week's risk. If Apple dips below 550 you buy 100 shares at a reasonable price of $537.85.

The stock price won't crater no matter what but if you want to hedge you could buy the 535 put for 7.35 giving you a net of 4.80 per share. This would limit your loss to 15 - 4.80 = 10.20 or 10.20.

So you gain 480 if stock price is above 550. Your worst case is a loss of $1020.

I guess a lot depends on what you think Apple's fortunes will be and what the market is expecting. This is typically a very strong quarter for Apple so the expectations are probably reasonably high especially coming off the last earnings report in January that sent it to the moon.

I'd personally sit this one out for now as the stock has been a bit schizo lately even though I like the idea of buying Apple between 550 and 525.


----------



## GOB

PMREdmonton said:


> When consumer sentiment to this type of electronic changes and as competitors produce at increasing scale and decreasing cost. We can already see that Samsung has reached this scale now and is selling as many smartphones as Apple.
> 
> Android now has double the market of Apple worldwide after starting from nil in 2009.
> 
> The competitors have already caught up to the point that Apple devices are not superior anymore in any major way according to many of the review sites.
> 
> Anyhow, my argument is largely historical - it has happened to every other device in consumer electronics. There are no real moats in this field. Something is hot for awhile and then something else comes along and steals a good chunk of the market. I think Motorola has had about 3 cycles on top of this market and maybe they'll rise again now that they are being absorbed within Google.
> 
> This is obviously the overhang on this stock. Otherwise growth stocks don't trade with these metrics - it never happens. It has happened because the market doesn't believe Apple's dominance and margins will be sustainable in the long run. This belief keeps this stock down.


The problem with your argument is that Apple has never settled for average market margins for any of their product lines. The iPhone is now over 5 years old and getting higher margins than ever. There is no basis to forecast a drastic drop in margins - people have been doing this for years and continue to be wrong. How long has Apple been selling computers and laptops and how are their margins on those doing? Still fantastic last time I checked. The phrase that all devices suffer from margin compression may be true but it doesn't happen in a couple of years, and there are always iterations and the odd revolutionary update that justifies maintaining margins, at least in Apple's case. 

Apple most certainly does have a moat. It is total product integration. There is no better experience than owning a Mac, iPhone and iPad (and AppleTV, possibly iTV?) that all work seamlessly together with iCloud and iMessage. People will say you can create an equivalent experience with Android but even if true I doubt more than a tiny fraction know how or would even bother. The appeal of Apple products is how well and how effortlessly they work to provide a meaningful user experience. This is a very real moat - billions of dollars have been put into its creation and I don't think there is a single company that has the resources to match it. Every time an Apple device is sold, or a song or app on iTunes is bought, it creates a huge incentive for that user to buy another Apple product, either in addition to or to replace their existing device. The strength of Apple's moat is highly undervalued. 

Some people prefer Android because it is more "open" but this benefit to some creates huge fragmentation issues and inhibits a complete vertical integration strategy from being possible. Citing Android marketshare numbers is a silly argument. It's like saying Toyota doesn't do well because they don't sell more cars than all other vendors combined. Apple's marketshare is what it is - they sell every phone they can make and that's all that really matters. Marketshare jumps every time there's a new release because they have built up some inventory for a huge launch. This shows that demand far outweighs supply and that margins are likely to stay high for the foreseeable future. 

Another thing that can throw a wrench into Android is the ongoing litigation. There is a very real chance Android loses important patent battles against Oracle or Apple and has to either strip features or pay royalties. These royalties will be passed on to the vendors forcing them to increase cost and reducing their competitiveness.


----------



## PMREdmonton

If I am wrong, why is Apple's PEG so ridiculously low for an established technology company?


----------



## GOB

A low PEG does not prove you right - there can be any number of other reasons why it may be so. 

- inefficient market
- people are unsure of Apple without Jobs (and with a sick Jobs when he was alive)
- people have never seen a megacap grow so fast so don't know how to value it
- people are equating Apple with the tech bubble a decade ago, not understanding that P/E ratios were astronomical back then and below historical averages right now 
- people take market share numbers much too seriously without realizing Apple has 80% of the profit share of the smartphone market
- people equate the phrase "Apple cannot grow forever" (true) with "Apple will stop growing immediately" (false)
- Apple's enormous growth has forced index rebalancing which has had an effect on share price

A low PEG just shows what a solid investment AAPL is right now. PEG was low $200 ago and you would have made the same argument back then. I'm not saying Apple has zero risks, but they are far more secure than most other companies. The low PEG is absolutely unjustified. Apple is priced as if they will stop growing immediately - it isn't priced for a perfect situation with ridiculous high margins and growth in perpetuity.

If you are justifying your argument based on Apple's low PEG you are basically saying the market is completely efficient and always correct. If that's the case, what are you doing here? 

There has never been a company this big that grows this fast. Understandably, some people are worried and think it's a bubble, unsustainable, etc. The numbers say otherwise. As the money continues to roll in, the stock will rise accordingly. It will probably always have a lower than appropriate PEG, but that just makes it a safer investment in my eyes.

These are very simple concepts to me, and you might wonder why the professionals don't get it. It's a real head scratcher, but they have been off the mark consistently for years on end. Their thoughts and valuations on Apple are basically meaningless at this point.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Apple most certainly does have a moat. It is total product integration. There is no better experience than owning a Mac, iPhone and iPad (and AppleTV, possibly iTV?) that all work seamlessly together with iCloud and iMessage.
> ....
> Some people prefer Android because it is more "open" but this benefit to some creates huge fragmentation issues and inhibits a complete vertical integration strategy from being possible. Citing Android marketshare numbers is a silly argument. It's like saying Toyota doesn't do well because they don't sell more cars than all other vendors combined.
> .....
> Another thing that can throw a wrench into Android is the ongoing litigation. There is a very real chance Android loses important patent battles against Oracle or Apple and has to either strip features or pay royalties. These royalties will be passed on to the vendors forcing them to increase cost and reducing their competitiveness.


Apple has 2 moats, coolness and what you call product integration.
Apple is really cool, they manage their image exceptionally well. They told people they have cool easy to use product, and people believe it. 
I personally find their products expensive, very difficult and confusing to use.

The product integration is ok, netflix on my phone or computer keep the same list and monitor the positions, netscape would sync bookmarks and browsing history between different computers, and that was long before people talked about "the cloud".
The product lock in is a big one, and today nobody seems to think that's an issue, but it's growing. Microsoft has benefited hugely from the MS office lock in, which has been preventing serious competition for decades. But there are groups fighting this, and they're starting to have real success now. This type of moat makes the company greedy and lazy, and that's the second largest risk to Apple, the first is when they become uncool.

Android is partially open, but look at Microsofts success, a relatively open IBM, with Microsoft software led to a huge mess of different hardware companies running their software. It is only now that Apple is looking competative, most other competitors dropped away years ago. Counting Android market share by number of devices makes sense for people selling to Android devices. If they were selling to Samsung Android devices maybe that would matter, but they're selling to Android in General. Even BluRay vs DVD marketshare they talk about the format penetration, not which companies device they have.
The other thing with multiple venders, there are hundreds of different Android based options to fit different needs. You want a larger phone, a smaller one, one with a keyboard, a waterproof and ruggedized one, you're only option is to get an Android based one because Apple doesn't make them.

Litigation is a distraction. Oracle wants money, they don't want to kill Google and give Apple the computer industry. Apple would like to kill their competition, but that simply won't happen


----------



## PMREdmonton

Apple gets a low PEG because the market does not believe it is sustainable in the long-term.

Yes, I know markets are often inefficient but this is what the market is saying and the market although occasionally inefficient does have this tendency to be right most of the time.

Apple will see margin compression in the next couple of years but their stock will not get crushed too much because they are starting off with a low EV/EBITDA ratio unlike most growth stocks so I am happy to ride along when I think the valuation is proper. It got a bit frothy recently when it went up into the early 600s and I had to hop off. It is now getting back to a more justifiable valuation and I may jump back on soon. However, I am skittish with this one because history has always shown that consumer electronics is a commodity market. Apple has brand recognition and vertical integration but so does Google and now that Jobs is gone I think Google's people are better than Apple's and will eventually dominate the field. Their move to take over Motorola was a high stakes bid to get in and vertically integrate in the mobile sphere and they along with Samsung now have the ability to compete with Apple.

I see Mororola and Samsung growing in the mobile sphere and challenging Apple and their will be major price compression in the mobile electronics field. Once stronger competitors are available it will not make sense for the telcos to subsidize the iphone to the extent that they do and they are bleeding hard right now from it and I'm sure resent it. This will be tough on Apple's stock valuation. In regions of the developed world without telco subsidies Apple holds a 9% market share, not a 30% share in the smartphone market.

Don't get me wrong - I like the stock, it was a double for me. I think it still has some legs but it got very frothy with a very quick 70% gain from 360 in November to 640 in April and got extremely overbought. Some air had to come out. Some has come out and some more may come out depending on earnings. However, I am cautious long-term about Apple's pricing powers and thus its future market cap. I'm not the only one - this is the opinion of most of the market at some level as reflected by not giving Apple a proper PEG for a reliable, profitable, high FCF, low debt growth company. They should have a PEG of about 1.3 or so instead of a PEG of 0.3 or so. The market says they don't believe the growth will be there long-term in profits. Only time will tell but there is that saying about the 5 most dangerous words in investing - this time it is different.

Good luck. I may be hopping on via put tomorrow with the April 27 strike at 550.


----------



## kcowan

PMREdmonton said:


> This belief keeps this stock down.


What is your forecast for the market top then?


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## GOB

PMREdmonton said:


> Apple gets a low PEG because the market does not believe it is sustainable in the long-term.
> 
> Yes, I know markets are often inefficient but this is what the market is saying and the market although occasionally inefficient does have this tendency to be right most of the time.
> 
> Apple will see margin compression in the next couple of years but their stock will not get crushed too much because they are starting off with a low EV/EBITDA ratio unlike most growth stocks so I am happy to ride along when I think the valuation is proper. It got a bit frothy recently when it went up into the early 600s and I had to hop off. It is now getting back to a more justifiable valuation and I may jump back on soon. However, I am skittish with this one because history has always shown that consumer electronics is a commodity market. Apple has brand recognition and vertical integration but so does Google and now that Jobs is gone I think Google's people are better than Apple's and will eventually dominate the field. Their move to take over Motorola was a high stakes bid to get in and vertically integrate in the mobile sphere and they along with Samsung now have the ability to compete with Apple.
> 
> I see Mororola and Samsung growing in the mobile sphere and challenging Apple and their will be major price compression in the mobile electronics field. Once stronger competitors are available it will not make sense for the telcos to subsidize the iphone to the extent that they do and they are bleeding hard right now from it and I'm sure resent it. This will be tough on Apple's stock valuation. In regions of the developed world without telco subsidies Apple holds a 9% market share, not a 30% share in the smartphone market.
> 
> Don't get me wrong - I like the stock, it was a double for me. I think it still has some legs but it got very frothy with a very quick 70% gain from 360 in November to 640 in April and got extremely overbought. Some air had to come out. Some has come out and some more may come out depending on earnings. However, I am cautious long-term about Apple's pricing powers and thus its future market cap. I'm not the only one - this is the opinion of most of the market at some level as reflected by not giving Apple a proper PEG for a reliable, profitable, high FCF, low debt growth company. They should have a PEG of about 1.3 or so instead of a PEG of 0.3 or so. The market says they don't believe the growth will be there long-term in profits. Only time will tell but there is that saying about the 5 most dangerous words in investing - this time it is different.
> 
> Good luck. I may be hopping on via put tomorrow with the April 27 strike at 550.


The market can believe what they like. History has shown that the market does not understand Apple. The market is giving LNKD a 1000 P/E - are you going to hop on board? Surely they must know something, right? I am in the investing game to find opportunities in stocks that are mispriced by the market - aren't you? Again, the low PEG has been there for a while, before the latest leg up. If you stayed out of the stock because of that, you'd be regretting it. This is the first time I've heard of a low PEG being a negative - it's ridiculous. Are you saying you'd be more comfortable owning AAPL if the PEG was 2? It's silly. I am not saying Apple is going to grow infinitely, but it's quite clear the growth isn't over by a long shot, and the stock can easily double from here. 

According to your logic, any stock that is reflecting extreme undervaluation should be avoided or shorted because the market is doing it for a reason. If that's the case, investing would be a lot easier than it is. I gave you several reasons why the PEG may be low that is not related to future growth - do you not believe any of them may be a factor?

Again, your prediction of margins coming down significantly in two years has zero basis. Macs and laptops have been around over a decade and haven't seen margin compression. iPhones have been around 5 years and haven't seen it. iPads are the only desirable tablet on the market and are just a couple of years old. What exactly is going to catalyze a sudden rapid compression of margins? It's not like there hasn't been competition already. Many of Apple's competitors are already surviving on razor thin margins and can't afford to drop prices much further. This in turn allows Apple to maintain their pricing. They simply operate much more efficiently that everyone else and that is a huge factor in their high margins. It's not like their phones sell for twice as much as everyone else's - any phone that can be compared to the iPhone is priced around the same. 

Regarding the acquisition of Motorola - I'd say that's a move that reeks of desperation. Who in their right mind would pay $11 billion for a company that lost $80 million last quarter in the mobile sector? Apple would never do such a stupid thing, because they trust that their people are better than anyone else's. The only acquisitions they make are for smallish or startup companies with unique technologies or moves to enhance their supply chain. That sounds like a much better strategy to me - and they have yet to drop $1 billion on a single acquisition. History has shown large mergers and acquisitions usually do not turn out well - why are you choosing to ignore history here but pound it in case of Apple?


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## humble_pie

ummm ... edmonton ... the april options expired 2 days ago. Option expiry occurs on the 3rd friday of each month.


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## GOB

I think he's referring to the weekly option


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## humble_pie

you're probably right.

it wouldn't normally occur to me that an option newcomer would commence by fooling around with a close-to-the-money weekly put ... 

however, he has thought of buying a hedge, so that's good.


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## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> Regarding the acquisition of Motorola - I'd say that's a move that reeks of desperation. Who in their right mind would pay $11 billion for a company that lost $80 million last quarter in the mobile sector?


Not to split hairs, but it was 12.5 billion.

As MOT was purchased mostly for their patents, valued I think at around $5 billion, it was surprising that Google paid so much more, but I'm sure there was good reason for it too. It had been reported that the patents would help against infringement lawsuits, etc. and when you consider all the suing that goes on, it may not have been such a desperate move after all, but what do I, or most of us really know anyway. 

So you don't think that AAPL would be interested in NOK/RIM? :biggrin:


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## GOB

Nope. It would just dilute the performance of the company, and they aren't even in Apple's scope of competition right now. It's Google, Samsung and HTC, and Microsoft on the computing side.

I don't know how useful the Motorola patents are. Some are being enforced but some are being laughed out of court. Trying to sue companies for infringing on FRAND patents (which Apple's chip supplier, Qualcomm, already pays a licensing fee for) shows a remarkable amount of desperation. Also, considering that Google makes almost no money off Android, and Motorola loses money in the smartphone sector, I don't see the acquisition as an effective use of such a huge sum of money.


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## dotnet_nerd

humble_pie said:


> ...Option expiry occurs on the 3rd friday of each month.


Not to split hairs but options actually expire at noon on Saturday following the 3rd Friday.

I had it happen once where an option I had sold expired OTM however my stock got called anyway. The after hours price on the underlying moved higher after the close on Friday and the holder of the option decided to exercise.

It's important to pay attention to your account on the following Monday to avoid surprises.

Apr BP 42's are a good example. The stock closed Friday at 41.99 but AH trading was somewhat choppy.


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## ddkay

Apple CCI indicator is the most oversold for the 3rd time in 12 months. My plan is to start a new long position near the close. My earnings thesis is Apple will beat estimates but guide lower for Q2 citing the issues at Qualcomm, but the market will shrug it off.


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## GOB

Wow, down to $558 pre-market...going to be an interesting day.


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## PMREdmonton

GOB said:


> Wow, down to $558 pre-market...going to be an interesting day.


There are rumours about a miss on ipads and maybe iphones, too. The guy at Bullish Cross who has proven to be the best estimator of Apple sales has the most bearish estimate of all. This is also the guy who nearly perfectly timed the last 4 Apple dips as buying opportunities just before the stock broke out including the last one in late November 2011. He was one of the biggest Apple bulls out there and built his reputation on it but he is now bearish on the stock apparently - need a subscription to read his new stuff.

There are growing rumours about cuts to subsidies from iphone sales. They are bleeding the telcos dry at this level of subsidization. Apple has a much smaller portion of the smartphone market in areas where there aren't subsidies and this fear is putting a drag on the share price, IMO.


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## PMREdmonton

China is screwing over Apple now - they don't own the name Ipad in China apparently:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...iew-in-ipad-trademark-dispute/article2412093/


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## ddkay

Wow, Google is selling unlocked no-contract Galaxy Nexus to US customers for $399 through Google Play http://www.androidpolice.com/2012/0...-the-gsm-galaxy-nexus-for-399-on-google-play/

For comparison Rogers is selling these outright for $575, Telus for $650, Wind for $600

So carriers have probably been making $150-$250 profit per sale of Android device, and obviously a lot more if the customer opts for a "subsidy" through an expensive plan (e.g. minimum $50/month). $400/36mos means only $11/month going towards paying customer hw cost, the rest is carrier profit.


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## ddkay

"When Verizon reported earnings last week Apple investors zeroed in on one thing: iPhone activations fell by 24% on a quarter over quarter basis. We have another data point from a U.S. carrier, and it's only going to make investors even more worried. AT&T activated 4.3 million iPhones, which is a 43% sequential decline. That means between AT&T and Verizon, iPhone activations fell 37% on a quarter over quarter basis. Analysts believe International sales, particularly in China, will be strong enough to offset any sequential sales dip in the U.S. We'll find out tonight when Apple reports earnings."

http://www.businessinsider.com/this...tors-nervous-iphone-sales-crash-at-att-2012-4


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## GOB

I'm not too worried about the sales numbers from the telcos - YOY is much more significant that Q/Q, especially considering last quarter was holiday season. Sales are still up YOY and iPhones represent 78% of AT&T's activations. The Q/Q decline represents overall segment maturity in the US - not iPhone specific. This should be offset by the rapid growth in the east. 

The stock is pretty beat up right now, and a preliminary decision that Apple violated a Motorola patent has just been made. We could see a large dip, but long term I don't think anything has changed. Glad I booked some options profits though.


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## ddkay

OMG this toplet being planned around the Windows 8 + Windows Phone 8 release has a chiclet keyboard *swoon*

http://www.theverge.com/2012/1/9/26...-windows-8-laptop-that-bends-backwards-into-a


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## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> The stock is pretty beat up right now, and a preliminary decision that Apple violated a Motorola patent has just been made.


So much for the cases 'being laughed out of court' as you mentioned a few days ago, however, the key word here is preliminary.

Google [and others for that matter], are not paying billions to acquire patent portfolios for nothing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...wins-partial-ruling-in-apple-iphone-case.html


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## CashMoney101

There is evidence that the credit bubble responsible for the exploding growth in iPhone sales is taking a big toll on the telecos that essentially financed Apple's growth for the last few years. There is also evidence iOS adoption already peaked and is in decline. It is into this mess that you want to wait a year for 'more significant results' to see how badly their sales figures have fallen? The writing is already on the wall my friend.


----------



## ddkay

Going forward I like the prospects for Microsoft. The W8/WP8 combo will make for nice seamless "product integration", it has delivered superb battery life performance on lower spec hardware, and the absence of thick patent fees make it a much lower cost alternative than Android to OEMs. By not owning an OEM directly Microsoft also don't have to take any supply chain risk. I think Microsoft's platform will mature enough in 2013 that they can hit back in a big way, we shall see...

For the next few quarters I'm still bullish on Apple (unless it goes crazy parabolic again)


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## ddkay

Apple Q2 EPS 12.30 vs 10.02 Estimate, net profit $11.6B, Revenue 39.19B vs 36.87B, guiding lower


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## moneyisfornothing

as expected AAPL beat forecasts
rally tomorrow on the markets.
AAPL will save all of us:encouragement:
even oil just got a notch up after hours on my chart:biggrin:


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## Lephturn

I sold a Condor on it in the weeklies end of last week. I bought back the short 640 call this afternoon for pennies. I still have a long 650 call, short 550 put and a long 540 put. I've collected enough that my max loss here is about $ 650 should it blow through my short 550 as I've already made some cash on the short 640.

This trade was a big mistake on my part. I was being stupid and did not plan it to the extent I normally do. I should have been in this trade 3 or 4 days earlier and played it in the May monthly's instead of the April Wk4s. I fully expect my mistake to cost me money here, but at least I managed part of the trade well and bought back the short call to leave my upside open with a little profit on that leg since it's come in so much. On the upside I hedged myself so there is a cap on my losses that is reasonable. I should have closed the put spread when I was down $ 300 or so on it. My bad - learn from it.  Now I'm flipping a coin for earnings but at least my downside is limited and my upside is not. 

The theta is so big on these weeklies that even as AAPL was dropping slowly from 560 to 555 during the day the short 550 put was not gaining in value as the time value was eroding as quickly as the price was moving toward my short strike. Even if we see a gap down in the after hours I have until Friday mid-day for AAPL to stay over 550 and I'll come out in the green.


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## brad

ddkay said:


> Going forward I like the prospects for Microsoft.


I agree. David Pogue, who is often misidentified as an Apple fanboy, has written rave reviews of the new Windows Phone OS and written similarly glowing reviews of Windows 8 ("It’s a huge radical rethinking of Windows — and one that’s beautiful, logical and simple. In essence, it brings the attractive, useful concept of Start-screen tiles, currently available on Windows Phone 7 phones, to laptops, desktop PC’s and tablets.") This is the kind of innovation and creativity that Microsoft has needed for a long time, and I have a feeling they'll go far with this. Pogue again "With Windows 8, Microsoft has sweated the details, embraced beauty and simplicity, and created something new and delightful. Get psyched."


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## GOB

Funny how such incredible earnings are completely unsurprising to those who do basic research, yet completely demolish Wall St. almost every single time. I'll be cashing in on some options tomorrow morning.


----------



## GOB

Toronto.gal said:


> So much for the cases 'being laughed out of court' as you mentioned a few days ago, however, the key word here is preliminary.
> 
> Google [and others for that matter], are not paying billions to acquire patent portfolios for nothing.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...wins-partial-ruling-in-apple-iphone-case.html


You're right, perhaps I was mistaken by lumping them all together. However, this is still a FRAND patent so Motorola would have to settle under similar licensing terms as anyone else using it. They can't charge exorbitant fees or refuse to license to Apple, so my guess is the damage is going to be minimal at worst.

A good synopsis here - and Motorola may be playing with fire according to this:
http://www.fosspatents.com/2012/04/preliminary-itc-ruling-holds-apple-to.html?m=1


----------



## GOB

CashMoney101 said:


> There is evidence that the credit bubble responsible for the exploding growth in iPhone sales is taking a big toll on the telecos that essentially financed Apple's growth for the last few years. There is also evidence iOS adoption already peaked and is in decline. It is into this mess that you want to wait a year for 'more significant results' to see how badly their sales figures have fallen? The writing is already on the wall my friend.


Where's the evidence? The only evidence I see is double, even triple digit growth in units sold, revenue and profit, largely driven by iOS devices. What's your evidence?

Even if American telcos lessen their subsidies their effect on Apple will be dampened because Apple grows more international by the day.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> Funny how such incredible earnings are completely unsurprising to those who do basic research, yet completely demolish Wall St. almost every single time. I'll be cashing in on some options tomorrow morning.


this makes one wonder where RIm is going......
Nokia in the dumpster today after downgrade.
qualcomm up after hours and broadcom also
nasdaq futures up 40 points and just because of apple.
u know it impresses me that the "rally" has been going on the back of aapl and some other companies.
plus 1 trillion dollars donated to euro countries
nevertheless congrats on your options:encouragement:
don't read this post as a criticism , i think apple is awesome, and they deserve to be where they are.


----------



## ddkay

ES stopped at the pivot ~1375. I would reduce longs here, remember there is an FOMC meeting concluding tomorrow and they have been very hawkish lately.

Re: RIM, they are glacially slow with everything there is nothing attractive in that stock until they release something people might want to buy. For MSFT/NOK WP7.5 is a wash because devices are non-upgradable to WP8, but WP8 and up should have better useful lifetime, I think they are trying not to repeat the same mistake as Android where several phones have been left behind with OS updates and the OEMs release too many unnecessary iterations every single month with poor support.


----------



## GOB

Gross margins: 47.4% vs 41.4% a year ago. Looks more like rapid expansion to me. Still waiting for that rapid compression to occur any second now...

Sorry for all the posts, but earnings is when I can back up everything I've been saying over the last three months with fact. It also puts to rest a lot of the silly argument against the company/products/stock...if only for a day


----------



## moneyisfornothing

ddkay said:


> ES stopped at the pivot ~1375. I would reduce longs here, remember there is an FOMC meeting concluding tomorrow and they have been very hawkish lately.


ddkay
i can consider myself long in quite a few stocks that hit 3/5 year lows.
as for helicopter ben we all know how hawkish he has been.
if the rhetoric does not hint QE gold /silver will possibly finally correct to where they should be.
specially gold.
gold and silver stocks have been already in a steep correction in possible preparation for this scenario.
nevertheless i fully agree with your comment about the pivot point.
its been playing with that arae quite awhile .
it is actually staring to be an annoyance.
nonetheless a rally can happen like it always did after apple's earnings.
if u read my posts look what i have been buying.
cheers


----------



## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> Gross margins: 47.4% vs 41.4% a year ago. Looks more like rapid expansion to me. Still waiting for that rapid compression to occur any second now...
> 
> Sorry for all the posts, but earnings is when I can back up everything I've been saying over the last three months with fact. It also puts to rest a lot of the silly argument against the company/products/stock...if only for a day


Gob
i don't even bother reading the arguments posted here.
nevertheless i think that like any stock a little retracement is healthy.
it had some but IMO not enough.
not tomorrow though.
every fund on earth has apple in their portfolio.
if u manage 200 billion dollars in funds , i am sure they have apple.
even the round the corner money manger probably owns it for their clients.
cheers


----------



## ddkay

6:04 (Dow Jones) Apple (CEO) CEO Tim Cook sheds little light on manufacturing problems at chip providers. Chip makers, including wireless processor maker and key AAPL partner Qualcomm (QCOM), have been having problems manufacturing advanced chips built at 28 nanometers, or billionths of a meter. Worries about chip shortages have weighed on AAPL shares in recent days. Cook says AAPL doesn't currently use 28-nanometer parts, but declines to talk about future products. Says AAPL works very closely with its partners, doing everything it can to get supply. "Sometimes we're successful with that, and sometimes we're not," he says. ([email protected])

6:09 (Dow Jones) Tim Cook , Apple's (AAPL) CEO, doesn't like it when other people copy his company's products. In his strongest statements yet about ongoing litigation it has with competitors such as Motorola Mobility (MMI) and HTC (HTCXF, 2498.TW), he said AAPL doesn't want to be the only one developing new devices. "I've always hated litigation and I continue to hate it," he said. "We just want people to invent their own stuff. And so if we could get some kind of arrangement where we could be assured that that's the case and a fair settlement on the stuff that's occurred, I would highly prefer to settle versus battle." ([email protected])


----------



## buhhy

ddkay said:


> ES stopped at the pivot ~1375. I would reduce longs here, remember there is an FOMC meeting concluding tomorrow and they have been very hawkish lately.
> 
> Re: RIM, they are glacially slow with everything there is nothing attractive in that stock until they release something people might want to buy. For MSFT/NOK WP7.5 is a wash because devices are non-upgradable to WP8, but WP8 and up should have better useful lifetime, I think they are trying not to repeat the same mistake as Android where several phones have been left behind with OS updates and the OEMs release too many unnecessary iterations every single month with poor support.


No guarantees that WP7.5 isn't upgradeable to WP8. None at all until official confirmation from either Nokia or Microsoft.


----------



## ddkay

That's the 'word on the street' for the last ~3 months. Even knowing it's possible the OS update is somehow incompatible makes me not want to purchase until WP8 is out.


----------



## andrewf

How does Mr. Cook feel about Apple copying their competitor's products? The holier than thou attitude isn't supported by the record of patent infringement, or even product releases (Apple copied earlier tablets, for instance).

Stop whinging and stick to your knitting.


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## ddkay

Tablet users have been wanting a more user friendly OS for tablets way before iPhones, iPads or Android slates. But upper management will ALWAYS refuse to listen to what they view as a minority opinion.

Now, Windows 8 will be the first Windows OS nobody has to tweak for every scrap of performance because of all the hard work making it run efficient enough for ARM based systems. If you're just a regular desktop user and don't care about Metro, that's fine, you can disable it and use the traditional sophisticated menus. For everyone else Metro will bring a whole new generation of free low cost apps that work equally well across desktops, laptops, phones and tablets.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> How does Mr. Cook feel about Apple copying their competitor's products? The holier than thou attitude isn't supported by the record of patent infringement, or even product releases (Apple copied earlier tablets, for instance).
> 
> Stop whinging and stick to your knitting.


Give it a rest. Apple's infringements are in appeal and are based on FRAND patents, which everyone is entitled to use as they are essential to industry standards. It seems Motorola is asking Apple to pay a licensing fee far greater than other entities, and Apple is fighting back on this fee. This goes against the whole principle of FRAND - fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory. The whole process is becoming very convoluted and I don't pretend to be an expert on the matter, but a lot of absolute garbage is being thrown in desperation and a couple of pieces are sticking, at least for the time being. Apple is still in a much stronger position than any of its competitors as most of the patents they hold are non-FRAND, meaning they are free to negotiate on their terms or outright deny their usage. I encourage you to read the FOSS patents blog for some excellent analysis. 

The bottom line is that the iPhone and iPad (and the initial iOS) have clearly been copied in almost every way imaginable, from look and feel to user interface. It is absolutely blatant. The stuff that is being pinned on Apple is anything but. For example, the verdict that came out today may not even apply to the iPhone 4S, and has more to do with Qualcomm's chip (their supplier) than Apple.

Sure, tablets existed before the iPad. Apple never claimed to invent the tablet. But they did invent and patent the current iteration of today's tablet, and you'd be lying if you didn't agree it is leaps and bounds ahead and completely different from anything before it. Same goes with the iPhone. There is a reason why every smartphone and every tablet is compared to Apple - it was the first of its kind and the gold standard.


----------



## andrewf

When Apple riffs on existing products, it is innovation and advancement, when everyone else does it, it is copying and theft. Got it. Putting a better screen in the iPad 3 was just 'copying' all the Android tablets that did it first, along with 4G support, etc. iCloud was copying and bundling services from other big tech companies. Siri is copying Google's voice activated search. It's all a blatant double standard.

I'm quite sure Mr. Cook would be happy if none of his competitors offered phones with touch screens or small modular applications. Thankfully, they don't have to oblige him. 

CEOs shouldn't be whinging about their competitors being competitive. It is unbecoming. And it doesn't do his company any good.


----------



## GOB

I will put my trust in Mr.Cook and trust that he knows more than you do on how to do his company good. I think his past and present record speaks for itself. Just out of curiosity, what Android tablet had (or has) a screen as good as the new iPad? Or did you just make that one up?

I don't think you understand what a patent is, or what it applies to. I guess I don't blame you since the system is so messed up. You can't patent putting a 4G chip in a tablet. You can patent new multi-touch technology and methods to interact with it. You can't patent a tablet. You can patent a tablet with a unique design and characteristics. See the difference? Your Siri example is ridiculous and you know it - they are nothing alike. 

Apple is not telling anyone not to make smartphones or touch screens. However, if they want to use a certain technology that is patented, then they should pay for the right to use it, or wait until the patent expires. The same applies to Apple, by the way, but I don't think they have infringed on any non-FRAND patents. 

A drug company is well within their rights to put out a drug for years without having generics enter the market. Why? Because a lot of work, money and risk went into developing it. The same should apply to any patented technology. Apple worked for years to develop the iPhone, and promptly after its release a slew of copycats came out. There is absolutely no denying that those products would not exist were it not for the iPhone. That is the difference. 

A 6% bump in margins this quarter YOY. What do you think? When is the compression coming?


----------



## ddkay

Twitter patented pull down to refresh http://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2010/0199180.html

Now we are moving into the world of touch there are plenty of gestures etc that can be patented


----------



## killuminati

So its up over $50/9% pre market.


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## GOB

Sold a few more multibaggers. Boy do I love when Apple gets beat down for no good reason.


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> 1. Sold a few more multibaggers.
> 2. Boy do I love when Apple gets beat down for no good reason.


1. Congratulations! :encouragement:
2. Same could be said for a number of other punished/oversold stocks atm; profit opportunities abound!

I enjoy reading this thread, but the not so friendly/childish arguments get very tiring. :rolleyes2: [comment not directed at you].


----------



## clovis8

Did first ever day trade. Bought apple yesterday at 560 sold today at 611.


----------



## andrewf

The original transformer prime had a significantly better screen than the iPad, as an example.

Apple is within its rights to defend its patents, and it is incumbent on its CEO to defend them through litigation. I don't think the public whinging adds to this defense, other than to maintain the illusion that Apple is holier than thou.

Beyond that, technology patents have been getting absurd and are beginning to stifle innovation and competition. The patent regime has lead to vast resources being poured into acquiring and defending patents, including for questionably innovative things like user interaction (swipe to unlock--really?). Patents were never intended to stifle competition, merely to ensure that innovators were given the incentive to develop new technologies through a period of exclusivity to recoup the development costs. The way patents are being used in the technology industry today is of questionable social benefit, and patent regimes are justified entirely on the basis of the degree to which they are a net benefit to society (not to the patent holder).


----------



## ddkay

I'm out this morning too. Nice trade clovis8.


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## GOB

The Transformer Prime screen has nothing on the iPad 3

I agree with a lot of what you say regarding patents, but tell me this: what exclusvity period has Apple been granted for coming out with the iPhone - which undoubtedly stretch the limits of innovation and revolutionized the mobile phone industry? The answer is none, so why are you assuming Apple is trying to stifle innovation when what they really want is the exclusivity they rightfully earned? You're contradicting yourself. I know your bias against the company, but you honestly believe Apple deserves no patent protection for the iPhone, and that it was nothing special? Patents are getting ridiculous because the obvious infringements are not being dealt with, so the strategy has changed to patenting everything imaginable hoping that a couple will stick. 

Accusing Apple of stifling innovation is absurd. If patents were upheld as they should be, other companies would have no choice but to innovate in order to compete with Apple, instead of riding their coattails as they currently are. It's not good for the industry for one company to lead and everyone else to follow - and that is clearly what's happening. 

Although blanket statements can't be made, the closest statement to the truth is that Apple is the victim, not the culprit. As for the "public whining", it was in response to a question during the conference call. What do you expect him to say? I see no problem with his statement - patents have been infringed and he's willing to settle.


----------



## andrewf

Do you hear CEOs of retailers or CPG makers whine when competitors make me-too or copycat brands, products, or concepts? Say PC Blue Menu products, with subsequent copying by the private labels of other grocery stores, with the same pale blue motif on the package.

I have no problem with Apple defending its patents (and defending itself from allegations of patent violation, both FRAND and non-FRAND). That is entirely separate from whining about how Apple's products are 'copied'. I don't think Apple is really in a position to lecture about others violating their patents or riffing on their products. They do the same thing!

Apple (and other tech companies) deserve some degree of patent protection for their IP. But they only 'deserve' it, in my book, to the extent that that entitlement is a benefit to society (and not just to Apple). If Apple did not have patent protection for some of the things it currently holds patents for, would it innovate less, create worse products, etc.? I doubt it.

Patents are just big sticks that Apple, Google, Msft, Nokia, Samsung, etc. are using to beat each other over the head with. I don't see the social benefit for the current level of patent protection. Patent lawyers maybe, society at a whole probably not. Obvious user interaction patents don't make the cut in my book. Manufacturing processes, clever power or battery management technologies, sure.


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## GOB

It's easy to say how obvious things are in hindsight. Touchscreens have been around long before the iPhone came out. Where were the "obvious" multitouch and associated gestures back then? Where was the "obvious" design of the iPad before it came about? Where were the "obvious" arrangement and implementation of apps before iPhone? Don't you think it's a bit odd that most of the "obvious" stuff comes from one company? Is everyone else just that completely incompetent, or are things maybe not so obvious in real time? 

So patents should only be enforced if inaction would change the company's ethics or wy of doing business? You're basically punishing Apple because they are doing the right thing. What if they dd stop innovating and survived on thier existing massive cash flow? Should patent enforcement suddenly change because of that?

If I steal a shirt from Sears the impact to ther business model or their bottom line is a rounding error at best. Does that mean I shouldn't be punished?


----------



## indexxx

Toronto.gal said:


> Same could be said for a number of other punished/oversold stocks atm; profit opportunities abound!


 Impart! Share! Please feel free to bestow any knowledge upon us... :biggrin:


----------



## kcowan

Xerox sued Apple for the "look and feel" of the Mac in the 80s. It was fought in Toronto. My neighbour was the winning lawyer. He represented Apple. So patent lawsuits have been around for at least 25 years. Apple learned their lesson early.


----------



## Lephturn

The current patent system is a huge wasteful disaster - but it is what it is. Apple has one excellent thing going for it. 112 Billion sitting in cash. Of course this will attract lawsuits but when then have to cut a deal they have ample cash to do it without even blinking.


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## brad

"Apple blowing away Android in enterprise" (from Networld magazine):

http://www.macworld.com/article/1166576/apple_blowing_android_away_in_enterprise.html


----------



## andrewf

Does that report not indicate that there were 0% Blackberry activations? Not sure that is credible.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> Does that report not indicate that there were 0% Blackberry activations? Not sure that is credible.


Yes, but the article explains why they left Blackberry out. They're not comparing Apple with Blackberry, they're comparing Apple with everything but Blackberry.


----------



## GOB

It's good to see some reports showing Apple's success in enterprise. I renewed having to defend the fact that they were steadily penetrating the segment and many people laughed it off. 

Apple is unequivocally the #1 choice for mobiles. Many Android users would prefer an iPhone but are constrained by price, carrier availability, etc. It doesn't work the other way around. This is why I place very little mohasis on market share and instead focus on profit share and customer satisfaction.


----------



## killuminati

Samsung is coming... http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...osts-record-52-billion-profit/article2415627/

I'm gonna step aside from apple for a bit. Could be delays on the iphone 5, maybe a better time to buy again over the summer.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

GOB said:


> Apple is unequivocally the #1 choice for mobiles. ... It doesn't work the other way around.


Sometimes it does. There's a niche market of techies and developers who prefer Android because it's open source, customizable, choice of ROMs etc.

Ie. not being locked into Apple's "our way or the highway" thinking.

Admittedly this is a small market though.


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## GOB

Yes, I mean in any significant numbers it doesn't. Offer an iPhone or an Android to 100 random people and I would bet 90-95 would take the iPhone.

Samsung is definitely doing very well, but if comes down to a two horse race I'll be ok with it, since Apple takes most of the money. A two horse race in a rapidly expanding market? Sounds like a dream come true. Apple wouldn't be able to manufacture enough phones anyway if there was no Samsung around. Samsung is taking on a lot of risk with Android, which may or may not crumble under litigation rulings in the near future.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

GOB said:


> Yes, I mean in any significant numbers it doesn't. Offer an iPhone or an Android to 100 random people and I would bet 90-95 would take the iPhone.


That sounds about right. But that number can only get better for Android.

It would be a dangerous thing to bet against the future of Android. It's backed by Google which is an absolute monster of a force to reckon with.


----------



## blin10

GOB said:


> *Yes, I mean in any significant numbers it doesn't. Offer an iPhone or an Android to 100 random people and I would bet 90-95 would take the iPhone.
> *
> Samsung is definitely doing very well, but if comes down to a two horse race I'll be ok with it, since Apple takes most of the money. A two horse race in a rapidly expanding market? Sounds like a dream come true. Apple wouldn't be able to manufacture enough phones anyway if there was no Samsung around. Samsung is taking on a lot of risk with Android, which may or may not crumble under litigation rulings in the near future.


that's untrue... android actually has a bigger share of users then apple, if i remember correct apple is only like 30% of users, android is like 50% and the rest between msft,rim,nok,etc


----------



## GOB

dotnet_nerd said:


> That sounds about right. But that number can only get better for Android.
> 
> It would be a dangerous thing to bet against the future of Android. It's backed by Google which is an absolute monster of a force to reckon with.


As opposed to betting against Apple, whose iPhone business alone brings in more money than any other entire company on earth? If Google's a monster what do you call Apple?

Blin, I meant what I said. I realize Android has a larger market share but that doesn't mean more people want or prefer Android. Android's numbers come largely from cheap phones in the east, because most people cannot afford the higher end. This is quickly changing though - iPhone experienced 500% growth YOY in China. It's like saying most people prefer to have a Toyota over a Lexus because Toyota has greater market share - is that correct? 

The better business is the one that makes more money. iPhone makes more money than the rest of the industry combined, and it's because demand is through the roof despite the premium price.


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## CashMoney101

http://www.email-marketing-reports.com/wireless-mobile/smartphone-statistics.htm (51% of the world's smartphones on Android, 24% on iOS) 

http://telecomlead.com/inner-page-details.php?id=8652&block=News (shows Apple has barely edged out Samsung in Q1 smartphone sales, but is only in 3rd place in terms of overall handset sales.. with only 1/3 the units as the two companies ahead of them on the list).


----------



## buhhy

CashMoney101 said:


> http://www.email-marketing-reports.com/wireless-mobile/smartphone-statistics.htm (51% of the world's smartphones on Android, 24% on iOS)
> 
> http://telecomlead.com/inner-page-details.php?id=8652&block=News (shows Apple has barely edged out Samsung in Q1 smartphone sales, but is only in 3rd place in terms of overall handset sales.. with only 1/3 the units as the two companies ahead of them on the list).


If you can call Samsung's crappy Galaxy phones like the Gio and Ace "Smartphones"... Though GOB, I think you overestimate iPhone's attractiveness. I'd say 5/10-6/10 would take an iPhone.


----------



## CashMoney101

Not counting regular handsets (ie: the not-so-smartphones you are referring to), Apple has a slight edge over Samsung. Once you do include them, both Samsung and Nokia have sold almost 3 times as many handsets (each!) as Apple in the first quarter alone. And you will notice those articles don't even have results for Q1 yet from Motorola/Google or HTC who are very big players in the market. Sure Apple has a great product, but it really doesn't do you any good to delude yourself and claim that they "own" or "dominate" the wireless market when they clearly do not.


----------



## GOB

CashMoney101 said:


> Not counting regular handsets (ie: the not-so-smartphones you are referring to), Apple has a slight edge over Samsung. Once you do include them, both Samsung and Nokia have sold almost 3 times as many handsets (each!) as Apple in the first quarter alone. And you will notice those articles don't even have results for Q1 yet from Motorola/Google or HTC who are very big players in the market. Sure Apple has a great product, but it really doesn't do you any good to delude yourself and claim that they "own" or "dominate" the wireless market when they clearly do not.


They dominate the part of the market that matters - the part that makes money. 



> Impressive data points from Apple’s record-setting holiday quarter continue to trickle out, and new estimates suggest that the company accounted for a staggering share of mobile profits in the fourth quarter of 2011. Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt wrote in a research note on Tuesday that Apple took in approximately 50% of all mobile industry revenues last quarter. Even more impressive, the analyst says Apple’s high-margin iPhone lineup accounted for more than 80% of all mobile phone profits. Read on for more.


http://www.bgr.com/2012/02/07/apple-claimed-a-staggering-80-of-mobile-profit-in-q4/

So let me get this straight: A single company that rakes in 50% of the revenue and 80% of the profit of an entire industy (consisting of a dozen other competitors) isn't dominating? Unit sales matter more than these facts? Funny stuff...it was never Apple's strategy to take market share, and the results speak for themselves. No delusion here - Apple certainly dominates. When their iPhone business alone brings in more cash than any other entire company (Exxon included), I think it's delusional to say they don't dominate. Companies don't exist to sell units. They exist to make money for their stakeholders. Anyone bearish on Apple because of unit sales and marketshare really needs to keep this at the forefront of their thoughts.

HTC is a huge player? I beg to differ:



> HTC Corp. (2498), Asia’s second-largest smartphone maker, posted its biggest drop in profit since listing a decade ago after sales declined amid competition from Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co.
> First-quarter net income was NT$4.46 billion ($151 million), the Taoyuan, Taiwan-based company said in a statement on its website today, a 70 percent drop from a year earlier. The average of 17 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg was for profit of NT$4.62 billion.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-70-after-dropping-the-ball-on-phones-1-.html

To put it into perspective, that $151 million that HTC made in a quarter is about what Apple nets in a single day. That's called...domination


----------



## kcowan

Apple does not intentionally dominate in unit sales. While they enjoy that position in the tablets, their pricing enables many other players to enter and survive in the segment. They dominate in margins in every segment where they participate.

This is why I am anxiously awaiting their rumoured TV offering, since TVs are now sold on price. It will be fascinating to see how Apple will introduce a high margin, high function iPanel. I have seen the iPad used to play fussball with two players but the screen size is too small.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> It's good to see some reports showing Apple's success in enterprise. I renewed having to defend the fact that they were steadily penetrating the segment and many people laughed it off.
> 
> Apple is unequivocally the #1 choice for mobiles. Many Android users would prefer an iPhone but are constrained by price, carrier availability, etc. It doesn't work the other way around. This is why I place very little mohasis on market share and instead focus on profit share and customer satisfaction.


Many Android users would prefer an Android phone because of a greater selection of devices.
If you want an iPhone, the best choice clearly is an iPhone.

If you want a smartphone with a larger screen, smaller screen, hard keyboard, more memory, expandable memory, better camera, you can get those options in an android phone.


----------



## kcowan

MrMatt said:


> ... you can get those options in an android phone.


yes if you prefer "erector sets" to finished products, there is something for everyone. But just like there are so many prospects for high MER funds, so the majority of technology users prefer the vendor to look after the details. That is the space that Apple owns. Most of DWs friends are in that category.

I own a Samsung Galaxy GIO smartphone. I also own 4 PCs. And an Archos player. But I also own Apple stock. There is paying for use of tech and then there is investing! Often people confuse the two endeavours...


----------



## PMREdmonton

As long as Apple can continue to sell with high margins and in high volumes the stock will continue to have a lofty valuation. The key is execution in the space.

In the medium term I like this company.

In the long-term (think 5 years) I am a bear. Technology is ruthless and the history of technology is rapid commoditization of new technologies pushing margins down to nil. It'll be interesting to see if Apple is the first company that can break this pattern but I'd prefer to put my bets on tobacco and liquor in the long run.


----------



## blin10

GOB said:


> As opposed to betting against Apple, whose iPhone business alone brings in more money than any other entire company on earth? If Google's a monster what do you call Apple?
> 
> Blin, I meant what I said. I realize Android has a larger market share but that doesn't mean more people want or prefer Android. Android's numbers come largely from cheap phones in the east, because most people cannot afford the higher end. This is quickly changing though - iPhone experienced 500% growth YOY in China. *It's like saying most people prefer to have a Toyota over a Lexus because Toyota has greater market share - is that correct?*
> 
> *The better business is the one that makes more money. iPhone makes more money than the rest of the industry combined, and it's because demand is through the roof despite the premium price.*


first of all android is not toyota and apple is not lexus, if anything android is lexus because android phones surpass iphone by having bigger screen, faster hardware, microsd slot, adobe flash, better camera, no stupid itunes, it's better in every way... most people get their "higher end phones" on a contract anyways and whoever is going to blow $600 will have a choice between higher end android or apple (it's not like if a person buying higher end phone apple has some type of advantage when the actual phone is worse in every way, why would person that spends so much money get worse phone?)... just because one company makes more money then the other doesn't mean it's a better business overall, google doesn't sell actual phones, most high end android phones from samsung, google just makes OS ... phone for phone, android is a better choice for higher end phone (one flaw is they don't regulate apps like apple) in my opinion, I used to have iphone4, now I have samsung galaxy s2 lte and it's better in everyway


----------



## PMREdmonton

You have to remember that Google is entering the space now with their purchase of Motorola mobility.

They will now be able to develop a fully integrated phone under their direction and bring some standardization to the Android system.

I know some of the other makers are leery of Google entering this space and have started to hedge by releasing Windows phones or thinking about starting up their old OS's but I think this would be a mistake. Their only hope is to use the old PC vs. Mac choice that happened in the 90s to take down Apple here. If they fragment it is game over for them and Apple will run all over them and it will be Apple vs. Googorola in the end. If LG, HTC and Samsung stay in the Android fold they will be formidable competition for Apple. I think it makes sense for them to hedge with WP8 which is supposed to be a great product but if they all go about developing their own OS without the possibility of an integrated cloud ecosystem like Android via Google and Microsoft will offer they will be dead in the water. RIM was wise to decide to focus on enterprise where I think they still have good value. As a business operator, I'd want my employees doing work with BBs instead of playing around with their iphones.


----------



## GOB

blin10 said:


> first of all android is not toyota and apple is not lexus, if anything android is lexus because android phones surpass iphone by having bigger screen, faster hardware, microsd slot, adobe flash, better camera, no stupid itunes, it's better in every way... most people get their "higher end phones" on a contract anyways and whoever is going to blow $600 will have a choice between higher end android or apple (it's not like if a person buying higher end phone apple has some type of advantage when the actual phone is worse in every way, why would person that spends so much money get worse phone?)... just because one company makes more money then the other doesn't mean it's a better business overall, google doesn't sell actual phones, most high end android phones from samsung, google just makes OS ... phone for phone, android is a better choice for higher end phone (one flaw is they don't regulate apps like apple) in my opinion, I used to have iphone4, now I have samsung galaxy s2 lte and it's better in everyway


iPhones are most certainly higher end than the average Android phone. There are so many crappy Android phones that increase the market share numbers. I am not talking about the higher end Samsung phones here, just the average Android phone. 

Better in every way? You literally made me laugh out loud.

You enjoy your Adobe Flash (which is being killed off because of Apple, by the way) and I'll enjoy the phone that most people want, for very good reasons. Most people want a phone that does what they want it to do with minimal effort - they don't care about quad core processors or microsd slots. Most don't even know what they are. Specs are for tech geeks - if you had an iPhone 4S and a Samsung Galaxy II and knew nothing about the internals, the iPhone would feel faster, smoother and more responsive. THAT is what matters, not the GHz or the number of cores. Higher specs on some of the Android phones are negated by the fact that Apple can control everything from top to bottom in the iPhone to provide a seamless piece of technology.


----------



## GOB

PMREdmonton said:


> You have to remember that Google is entering the space now with their purchase of Motorola mobility.
> 
> They will now be able to develop a fully integrated phone under their direction and bring some standardization to the Android system.
> 
> I know some of the other makers are leery of Google entering this space and have started to hedge by releasing Windows phones or thinking about starting up their old OS's but I think this would be a mistake. Their only hope is to use the old PC vs. Mac choice that happened in the 90s to take down Apple here. If they fragment it is game over for them and Apple will run all over them and it will be Apple vs. Googorola in the end. If LG, HTC and Samsung stay in the Android fold they will be formidable competition for Apple. I think it makes sense for them to hedge with WP8 which is supposed to be a great product but if they all go about developing their own OS without the possibility of an integrated cloud ecosystem like Android via Google and Microsoft will offer they will be dead in the water. RIM was wise to decide to focus on enterprise where I think they still have good value. As a business operator, I'd want my employees doing work with BBs instead of playing around with their iphones.


LG and HTC are pretty much done. It is down to Apple and Samsung who together rake in 95% of mobile phone profits (Apple gets 80% alone). Google/Motorola has a chance to get in but Motorola is losing money, and Google has never shown that they can put out a good piece of hardware and provide all the necessary support. They are a software company.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Google is a software company that just bought a hardware company.

It'll be interesting to see if they can mesh the two together to create something really good.

My guess is Google decided they wanted better control of the end product and decided they needed to fuller control of mobile to make their dent. Now they can make a push to more standardization of things like screen size (maybe only two sizes) to make the Android experience better in the end for the user.

I also knows Google wants to enter in the space where the whole house can be controlled via voice control and they may view having more hardware expertise as necessary to carry out their vision.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next year as the industry is in flux.

I see 3 main survivors coming out: Apple, Googorola and Samsung. 

There may be room for RIM, HTC and LG in the lower market in emerging markets. RIM may continue to carve out a spot in enterprise if they really focus there.


----------



## buhhy

I believe in Nokia


----------



## blin10

GOB said:


> iPhones are most certainly higher end than the average Android phone. There are so many crappy Android phones that increase the market share numbers. I am not talking about the higher end Samsung phones here, just the average Android phone.
> 
> Better in every way? You literally made me laugh out loud.
> 
> You enjoy your Adobe Flash (which is being killed off because of Apple, by the way) and I'll enjoy the phone that most people want, for very good reasons. Most people want a phone that does what they want it to do with minimal effort - they don't care about quad core processors or microsd slots. Most don't even know what they are. Specs are for tech geeks - if you had an iPhone 4S and a Samsung Galaxy II and knew nothing about the internals, the iPhone would feel faster, smoother and more responsive. THAT is what matters, not the GHz or the number of cores. Higher specs on some of the Android phones are negated by the fact that Apple can control everything from top to bottom in the iPhone to provide a seamless piece of technology.


ya and you made me laugh even more... people who will go spend $600 will look over specs for sure, nothing to do with being a geek, you will not go buy 50,000$ car without comparing features to the competition.. and iphone DOES NOT feel faster or smoother, I had the damn thing so I know how it is (I bet you never owned android and are the biggest apple fanboy, don't be close minded)... after having 4.5" screen I don't know how you people with iphone operate on that tiny screen, but hey it's apple so it must be good lol... anyways i'm tires of this kindergarten arguing


----------



## kcowan

One of my friends has an HTC. He was an early adopter, so HTC was all there was. I had to talk him into switching to Android. Now he is a convert. I have a Samsung Galaxy GIO because small size matters to me in a phone. I also have an Archos, and I have 4 PCs including 2 laptops.

But I continue to hold AAPL because it is such a fantastic investment. 300 shares. Do I qualify as a fanboy?


----------



## ddkay

Nobody dip buying today huh? Glad I cashed out at 644 and 610 lol


----------



## sam

ddkay said:


> Nobody dip buying today huh? Glad I cashed out at 644 and 610 lol


I think everyone is waiting for $550 lol


----------



## CashMoney101

Well now I understand why they call this one a cult stock... Fortunately I have not drank any koolaide.


----------



## GOB

What's funny is that the anti-Apple cult is far stronger than the Apple cult. Android users feel the need to defend their choice and label anyone using an iPhone as ignorant or a fanboy. I have openly said the advantages Android offers will definitely suit some people, but most are better off with an iPhone, and the results prove this to be true. Pretty much everything I've said has been backed up with facts (reviews, benchmarks, sales figures, customer satisfaction surveys etc. etc.) while the Android fanboys just keep pounding specs, specs and specs and marketshare. 

If people took my advice a year ago they would be sitting on a massive gain considering the low amount of risk involved. But hey, I'm just a fanboy sipping the Kool-Aid, what do I know? Must just be luck...

I remember predicting $800 in a couple purple of years time and being ridiculed for it. Anyone still laughing?


----------



## m3s

GOB said:


> What's funny is that the anti-Apple cult is far stronger than the Apple cult. Android users feel the need to defend their choice and label anyone using an iPhone as ignorant or a fanboy. I have openly said the advantages Android offers will definitely suit some people, but most are better off with an iPhone, and the results prove this to be true. Pretty much everything I've said has been backed up with facts (reviews, benchmarks, sales figures, customer satisfaction surveys etc. etc.) while the Android fanboys just keep pounding specs, specs and specs and marketshare.


Yup


----------



## CashMoney101

GOB said:


> LG and HTC are pretty much done. It is down to Apple and Samsung who together rake in 95% of mobile phone profits (Apple gets 80% alone). Google/Motorola has a chance to get in but Motorola is losing money, and Google has never shown that they can put out a good piece of hardware and provide all the necessary support. They are a software company.


Ok well it's against my better judgement, but I'll bite cause this ^^ made me wonder where you get your numbers. Are you not aware that there are other hardware manufacturers? Or that many aspects of cell and smartphones have licensing fees being paid for various technologies in the phones? And that telcos and electronics stores/dealers get a piece of the action as well? I cannot see how those numbers could be even remotely factual, but I'd love to see your sources.


----------



## GOB

Here's my source:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-5...profits/?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

Here are some nice charts - slightly dated so they show "just" 75% share:

http://www.asymco.com/2012/02/03/first-apples-rank-in-mobile-phone-profitability-and-revenues/

We don't count stuff like store markups and licensing fees because all that is built into the price of the hardware. This is purely profits off the sale of the hardware. If I sold my phone for $100 do I suddenly become a part of the market too? Or if a retailer slashes prices because they're going out of business does the mobile phone market suddenly shrink?


Whichever way you look at it it's still a remarkable stat that a single company takes such an enormous amount of the profit. Considering this a forum discussing stocks I'd say this one stat is more important than almost anything else discussed in here.


I'm well aware of the multitude of hardware manufacturers. I'm also aware that only two of them make any significant money on their business. Are you?


----------



## blin10

you like got offended or something, all I see is you defending apple on every page lol... it's ok dude, relax, everything is fine



GOB said:


> What's funny is that the anti-Apple cult is far stronger than the Apple cult. Android users feel the need to defend their choice and label anyone using an iPhone as ignorant or a fanboy. I have openly said the advantages Android offers will definitely suit some people, but most are better off with an iPhone, and the results prove this to be true. Pretty much everything I've said has been backed up with facts (reviews, benchmarks, sales figures, customer satisfaction surveys etc. etc.) while the Android fanboys just keep pounding specs, specs and specs and marketshare.
> 
> If people took my advice a year ago they would be sitting on a massive gain considering the low amount of risk involved. But hey, I'm just a fanboy sipping the Kool-Aid, what do I know? Must just be luck...
> 
> I remember predicting $800 in a couple purple of years time and being ridiculed for it. Anyone still laughing?


----------



## GOB

blin10 said:


> you like got offended or something, all I see is you defending apple on every page lol... it's ok dude, relax, everything is fine


Yeah...this is an Apple thread, what's your point? I'm defending my bullish position on the stock, backed up with facts and figures, and have been right so far and made a lot of easy money along the way. What's so funny?


----------



## kcowan

GOB said:


> What's so funny?


I think your inherent need to defend your choice is funny. Why not just continue to count your money? In the markets, there are always two sides to an investment, and sometimes more! Let the sleeping dogs lie!


----------



## blin10

never once did I say apple stock will not go up and is not bullish! you got your panties twisted



GOB said:


> Yeah...this is an Apple thread, what's your point? I'm defending my bullish position on the stock, backed up with facts and figures, and have been right so far and made a lot of easy money along the way. What's so funny?


----------



## Toronto.gal

kcowan said:


> Why not just continue to count your money? In the markets, there are always two sides to an investment, and sometimes more!


I agree on both counts!

If you're making a killing on your AAPL investment/trading strategies GOB, who cares about the 'anti-AAPL' cult? Share/discuss the information you have and ignore the non-believers that may be interested in just picking arguments; it's that simple & it will be more enjoyable for you and those who read as well.


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## GOB

Just as everyone has the right to attack my opinions, I have the right to defend them. Yes, in terms of making money for myself none of this banter matters to me, but maybe my arguments influence people on the fence. Though a lot of the thread spirals into silly arguments I believe I've provided a wealth of information about AAPL, which if interpreted without bias would have translated into no-brainer buying opportunities for many people here $200 ago. Is it better that I ignore everyone and don't provide that info and analysis?

Rather than ignore I choose to defend and shoot down their arguments (not difficult to do). So what?

If everyone who made money stopped voicing their opinions what kind of community would this turn into? If we acknowledge that there are two sides to an argument and should therefore "let sleeping dogs lie" what exactly is the purpose of a discussion forum? Is it not to discuss those two sides and provide a more compelling argument for the side you're on? 

Let's just all stop posting when there are conflicting opinions - great idea!


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## indexxx

I for one welcome your defences GOB- you always provide compelling evidence for your arguments in the face of sometimes snarky cynicism.


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## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> 1. If everyone who made money stopped voicing their opinions what kind of community would this turn into?
> 2. Is it not to discuss those two sides and provide a more compelling argument for the side you're on?


1. To be fair, I didn't say that at all as I appreciate reading good information.
2. That's just it, not all are mere arguments/debates/differences of opinions, but rather quarrels! Why waste your time with those? What I was saying is that you need to pick your battles so to speak!


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## GOB

The problem is my defense of completely baseless bearish statements are well intentioned, but then I get accused of "getting my panties in a bunch" for defending my views. It's really not me who turns the debate down a useless path. Notice how nobody has commented on the various links to asymco I've posted demonstrating Apple's absolute dominance - the stuff that actually matters? Why do you think that is? If somebody could tear apart those numbers and those trends I would welcome the challenge...

Fact is, if you take the emotion away and look at the fundamentals, there is no compelling bearish argument against the stock in the near to medium term, and with each earnings report it becomes more and more obvious. As long as the same silly arguments are being put forth with no substance I feel it is my duty to share the knowledge that I have and continue to shut them down.


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## sam

did you guys buy today ?


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## marina628

I am still crying over selling it at low 400's ...


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## m3s

Don't sweat it GOB, half the haters in here either work for or invested in RIM. You should see how they reacted if you said anything bad about RIM during its time!!


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## kcowan

GOB
You should look into contributing to Seeking Alpha. I follow all my key holdings over there and you get all kinds of useful input. Even the naysayers sometimes make valid points. After all, how can you explain the 2 recent swoons in stock price without understanding the sentiments in the market. Seeking Alpha is at least representative of some of those feelings/opinions.

(There have been contributions using normal metrics that indicate a $1650 price target!)


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## GOB

I do look at seeking alpha. I read a ton of information about the stock, both good and bad and from any source I can find. I consider places where individuals can voice their opinions extremely valuable, which is why I get annoyed when I'm told to shut up and ignore any arguments I don't agree with. I then apply my own thoughts and analysis to interpret all the different information. It's really not difficult but it does take time. From what I can conclude, most of the bear cases stem from rumours and misinterpretation or deliberate moves to shake the weak hands. 

For example, AT&T sold fewer smartphones this past quater than their last holiday quarter. Well...obviously holiday sales are going to be greater. The market however interprets that as a drop in iPhone sales without bothering to think about YOY (and therefore seasonally adjusted) numbers, or the fact that international growth is rampant and a couple of carriers in the US don't mean much anymore in terms of total numbers. There is a always some stupid piece that gets interpreted as bad for Apple right before earnings. That's why I wasn't worried, as you can see from my posts. Instead, I booked some profits in existing calls and bought some more in the $560-570 area. 

I'm well aware of the factors that move Apple up and down. Frankly, both ways help me make money. The corrections are almost based on misinterpreted data or outright baseless rumours, while the rallies are fundamentally driven - hence my very strong long bias. 

Apple at $1650? I'll be called crazy but it's certainly possible. It's funny how people laugh it off when they are happy buying NFLX, AMZN or GOOG.


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## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> I do look at seeking alpha. I read a ton of information about the stock, both good and bad and from any source I can find. I consider places where individuals can voice their opinions extremely valuable, which is why I get annoyed when I'm told to shut up and ignore any arguments I don't agree with. I then apply my own thoughts and analysis to interpret all the different information. It's really not difficult but it does take time. From what I can conclude, most of the bear cases stem from rumours and misinterpretation or deliberate moves to shake the weak hands.
> 
> For example, AT&T sold fewer smartphones this past quater than their last holiday quarter. Well...obviously holiday sales are going to be greater. The market however interprets that as a drop in iPhone sales without bothering to think about YOY (and therefore seasonally adjusted) numbers, or the fact that international growth is rampant and a couple of carriers in the US don't mean much anymore in terms of total numbers. There is a always some stupid piece that gets interpreted as bad for Apple right before earnings. That's why I wasn't worried, as you can see from my posts. Instead, I booked some profits in existing calls and bought some more in the $560-570 area.
> 
> I'm well aware of the factors that move Apple up and down. Frankly, both ways help me make money. The corrections are almost based on misinterpreted data or outright baseless rumours, while the rallies are fundamentally driven - hence my very strong long bias.
> 
> Apple at $1650? I'll be called crazy but it's certainly possible. It's funny how people laugh it off when they are happy buying NFLX, AMZN or GOOG.


Gob
in all honesty and i am an apple lover, i think that a solid retracement to the 450, even 350 area will be very very healthy.
money managers are overloaded with AAPl.
fundamentals are extraordinary , but at these levels not atractive IMO.
no disregard for fundamentals but i am a buyer on a significant retracement.
right now, IMO this is a selling point.
do not take this the wrong way 
cheers and GL


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## GOB

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for $350. That would a 45% retracement from the high - and one heck of a beatdown for a stock with high double digit growth and $120 billion in the bank (and growing). 

The current P/E is just over 14 - at $350 it would be 8.5 (less if Apple continues to grow earnings). 

That would be ludicrous. I don't think we will ever see the 300s again as long as Apple remains a dominant company. I would say $530 would be a good spot to get in if it ever gets there - that level provides a 2% yield so may provide a solid floor.


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## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for $350. That would a 45% retracement from the high - and one heck of a beatdown for a stock with high double digit growth and $120 billion in the bank (and growing).
> 
> The current P/E is just over 14 - at $350 it would be 8.5 (less if Apple continues to grow earnings).
> 
> That would be ludicrous. I don't think we will ever see the 300s again as long as Apple remains a dominant company. I would say $530 would be a good spot to get in if it ever gets there - that level provides a 2% yield so may provide a solid floor.



will keep that in mind GOB.
its just my thinking of a large retracement on the spx 500 and as you know the weight of apple on it is very large.
solid company though.
congrats on ur trading of AAPL
cheers


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## GOB

In a market-wide meltdown all bets are off, and Apple can and probably will plummet like any other company. I don't know if it's wise to wait for such an event though as it may be years or decades before it happens. I think the best strategy is to keep putting money in, taking some profits when they are there and always having some cash to deploy if the markets do take a nosedive.

Waiting for a crash may cost you several years of compounding returns. Timing the market is very difficult. Timing individual stocks based on their valuations is much easier.


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## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> In a market-wide meltdown all bets are off, and Apple can and probably will plummet like any other company. I don't know if it's wise to wait for such an event though as it may be years or decades before it happens. I think the best strategy is to keep putting money in, taking some profits when they are there and always having some cash to deploy if the markets do take a nosedive.
> 
> Waiting for a crash may cost you several years of compounding returns. Timing the market is very difficult. Timing individual stocks based on their valuations is much easier.


i partially agree with ur thinking and i do see a retracement on the spx 500.
will it happen?
i think that next month or 2 will tell.
still, GL in ur endeavours.


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## sam

ok so whos buying AAPL today ?


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## indexxx

I bought too high last week- I hoped for uptrend following earnings report. That's the way the apple crumbles...


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## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> In a market-wide meltdown all bets are off, and Apple can and probably will plummet like any other company. I don't know if it's wise to wait for such an event though as it may be years or decades before it happens. I think the best strategy is to keep putting money in, taking some profits when they are there and always having some cash to deploy if the markets do take a nosedive.
> 
> Waiting for a crash may cost you several years of compounding returns. Timing the market is very difficult. Timing individual stocks based on their valuations is much easier.



Gob
the gap to the runup after earnings announcement has been filled.
i expect some consolidation in the 550 area if not a tad lower( wishfull thinking).
at that point i will place some bids.
good to have someone on the board that knows the ins and outs of the company.
unlike others here u seem to be a simple guy just like me.
cheers and GL:encouragement:


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## GOB

Thanks for the kind words. If you are looking to get in the first time now might not be a bad time to enter a partial position. That said, you are right that it may consolidate for a while around this level, and possibly a tad lower. Apple tends to break out with huge gains and then float around for a few months or between earnings reports. 

Any further drop and I may add a bit to my position and/or get into some 2014 LEAPS. Now may also be a good time to get into some short term put spreads around the $500 point for some substantial easy income. I really don't see the stock dropping that much further than it already has - it has far too much fundamental power to keep it dropping.


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## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> Thanks for the kind words. If you are looking to get in the first time now might not be a bad time to enter a partial position. That said, you are right that it may consolidate for a while around this level, and possibly a tad lower. Apple tends to break out with huge gains and then float around for a few months or between earnings reports.
> 
> Any further drop and I may add a bit to my position and/or get into some 2014 LEAPS. Now may also be a good time to get into some short term put spreads around the $500 point for some substantial easy income. I really don't see the stock dropping that much further than it already has - it has far too much fundamental power to keep it dropping.


np GOB
i like the idea of the 2014 leaps options.
i will check the put spreads also.
it really tends to run before earnings since they always overdeliver.
cheers


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## Argonaut

As I mentioned upthread or maybe in the Google thread, this is an ideal way to play these two stocks. 

Current AAPL jam jar labelled 440P, and set to expire in July. At which point I might look at bobbing for some 500P AAPLs, best before Jan 2013.


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## GOB

Study: Apple iPad Accounts for 94.64% of all Tablet Web Traffic

http://insights.chitika.com/2012/study-apple-ipad-accounts-for-94-64-of-all-tablet-web-traffic/










Doesn't this put to rest the common theory that people only buy Apple for style and coolness? How come people with iPads actually use their devices far more than people with other tablets? These kind of numbers show why Apple can retain a high market share without sacrificing margins.

Monday is going to be an interesting day. I'd love to see a little more weakness in the stock so I can load up on LEAPS.


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## andrewf

Assuming the competition all cooperate and don't make better tablets, right?

One theory might be that people who don't have computers are likelier to buy an iPad than people who do. Those who do have computers would sensibly use that for the surfing that is easier on a computer (ie, anything that requires a keyboard).

I'm shocked how many Playbooks there were in relation to Galaxy.


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## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> Study: Apple iPad Accounts for 94.64% of all Tablet Web Traffic
> 
> http://insights.chitika.com/2012/study-apple-ipad-accounts-for-94-64-of-all-tablet-web-traffic/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Doesn't this put to rest the common theory that people only buy Apple for style and coolness? How come people with iPads actually use their devices far more than people with other tablets? These kind of numbers show why Apple can retain a high market share without sacrificing margins.
> 
> Monday is going to be an interesting day. I'd love to see a little more weakness in the stock so I can load up on LEAPS.



GOB
for what i understand from ur posts and outside info, the main driver of aapl is the iphone.
something like 51% of the revenue?
therefore my take is that if the chinese really start moving into the iphone frenzy aapl will keep going higher.
i know that the other products have relevance , but if the iphone fails to maintain its position , we might have a problem later on.
what are ur thooughts.
thks and cheers


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## GOB

Andrew, do you think taking the iPad down is as easy as others cooperating to make a better tablet? Don't you think they would have done so already? And what is Android if not a cooperative effort between Google and hardware manufacturers? It's not working, so what more can they do that's so easy? You're basically implying that everyone is just letting Apple dominate, and that can end as easily as them flipping a switch. Sorry, but that's wrong. Endless companies have tried their best to compete with Apple and failed. Only Samsung is getting anywhere even close. 

Why would people without computers buy an iPad instead of any other tablet? Because they're better, or what? I'm having a really tough time understanding your thought process through this entire thread. 

moneyisfornothing, you're right that iPhone is the main driver of AAPL and is therefore the most important. iPad is a close second though and has triple digit growth rates. It's growing faster than the iPhone did at the same stage of its lifecycle, s in a couple of years it could be pulling in as much money as the iPhone does today. Margins are a bit lower on the iPad than the iPhone, but Apple still makes a ton off them, so keeping their growth strong is also important. 

China is going to be huge. 500% gain on iPhones YOY, and 60% on Macs. We are just getting started...


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## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> Andrew, do you think taking the iPad down is as easy as others cooperating to make a better tablet? Don't you think they would have done so already? And what is Android if not a cooperative effort between Google and hardware manufacturers? It's not working, so what more can they do that's so easy? You're basically implying that everyone is just letting Apple dominate, and that can end as easily as them flipping a switch. Sorry, but that's wrong. Endless companies have tried their best to compete with Apple and failed. Only Samsung is getting anywhere even close.
> 
> Why would people without computers buy an iPad instead of any other tablet? Because they're better, or what? I'm having a really tough time understanding your thought process through this entire thread.
> 
> moneyisfornothing, you're right that iPhone is the main driver of AAPL and is therefore the most important. iPad is a close second though and has triple digit growth rates. It's growing faster than the iPhone did at the same stage of its lifecycle, s in a couple of years it could be pulling in as much money as the iPhone does today. Margins are a bit lower on the iPad than the iPhone, but Apple still makes a ton off them, so keeping their growth strong is also important.
> 
> China is going to be huge. 500% gain on iPhones YOY, and 60% on Macs. We are just getting started...


much obliged for the explanation on the ipad revenue status:encouragement:


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## PMREdmonton

The question in China is how much subsidization will there be of iphones. If there isn't much and given the low salaries of most Chinese middle class, I wouldn't expect Apple to have a huge footprint there. The market will be dominated by the cheapest smartphones that use the least bandwidth resources. This should actually be right up Blackberries ally as this is where they are best. I wonder if they can execute, though.

As for the future of Apple, they are quickly being transformed from that cool company with the great visionary to the mean-spirited, money grubbing corporation that is trying to avoid paying its fair share of US taxes. Apple will not prosper if it cannot stay ahead of everyone and continue to invest a new must-have piece of electronics every 3 to 4 years. Otherwise, there is no reason to enter the Apple ecosystem which is closed from everyone else's products.

The beauty of Android is that you could potentially use a phone from one and a tablet from another and a computer from another and they could all work together. Google has to get all its hardware sects together so they can act with a united front to attack Apple or they could all get swept aside. I think they bought Motorola partly for the patents and partly to show the others what can be done if the hardware and software are integrated together well with regular updates so everything runs smoothly.

In the end, I am comfortable with Google's market capitalization and ability to create earnings and growth commensurate with it for the next couple of decades. I'm not convinced Apple can do this at all. I am convinced Apple will continue to pump out huge profits for another couple of years but I am not 100% convinced the stock won't start to retreat well before that if the street anticipates impending commoditization of the tablet and smartphone markets.


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## GOB

Apple need not have a "huge footprint" in a country of 1.3 billion people in order to sell a massive amount of phones there and make a massive amount of money there. I agree that in terms of marketshare iOS will be (and is) less than what it is in North America, but in terms of profit share I expect Apple to have far and away the largest footprint in China. They are brand everyone wants there - right now not many can afford it (but enough to be Apple's second largest profit centre already) but China is getting wealthier by the day. That bodes very well for Apple. 500% YOY iPhone growth is indication of this happening already.

The "beauty of Android" you described is exactly why I cringe at the thought of switching to Android. Sure, maybe it can technically be done, but what phone do I get? What tablet do I get? What computer do I get? There are so many choices, most of them bad, and not all are going to work together. Each vendor makes their own adjustments to Android and causes fragmentation. With Apple you get a Mac, iPhone and iPad - and you can be assured of quality, longevity (both durability and updates to the OS), and seamless, no-hassle integration. 

Look at my earlier post regarding the tablet market. Almost nobody wants anything but an iPad - that's not an exaggeration. So if you want integration between your devices, and know the iPad is the tablet to get, you're better off with an iPhone and a Mac as well. This is Apple's big advantage - it is definitely not an advantage to Android.


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## andrewf

I meant the competition cooperate with Apple's plans to continue having 95% share and >100% mark-up. Maybe Apple will be able to defend that, but I don't think it'd be easy, and it would require some serious bungling on their competitors' part.


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## indexxx

GOB said:


> With Apple you get a Mac, iPhone and iPad - and you can be assured of quality, longevity (both durability and updates to the OS), and seamless, no-hassle integration.
> 
> Almost nobody wants anything but an iPad - that's not an exaggeration. So if you want integration between your devices, and know the iPad is the tablet to get, you're better off with an iPhone and a Mac as well. This is Apple's big advantage - it is definitely not an advantage to Android.


Absolutely. This is a large point that Apple naysayers seems to ignore. Few things make me angrier than laying out a big chunk of change for something that is questionable in quality long-term (like my 2004 'top of the line' Toshiba laptop that as been a barely functioning, falling apart piece of plastic crap for the last two years). Apple is quality and integrates seamlessly- you never regret buying the best.


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## GOB

andrewf said:


> I meant the competition cooperate with Apple's plans to continue having 95% share and >100% mark-up. Maybe Apple will be able to defend that, but I don't think it'd be easy, and it would require some serious bungling on their competitors' part.


So, the status quo of the last 5 years? Apple has been defending just fine, and competitors have been bungling - sadly, that bungling is the best they seem to be able to do. That's what happens when there is a market consisting of a leader and several followers.

Every iOS device sold, every extra dollar in Apple's coffers makes it that much more difficult to take them down. They have the innovation, brand and operational efficiency that nobody else can even dream of.


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> The "beauty of Android" you described is exactly why I cringe at the thought of switching to Android. Sure, maybe it can technically be done, but what phone do I get? What tablet do I get? What computer do I get? There are so many choices, most of them bad, and not all are going to work together. Each vendor makes their own adjustments to Android and causes fragmentation. With Apple you get a Mac, iPhone and iPad - and you can be assured of quality, longevity (both durability and updates to the OS), and seamless, no-hassle integration.


Well said. The "locked system" approach of one company controlling both hardware (no clones) and software was criticized for many years because it was largely responsible for Apple's tiny market share of the PC market. But this approach pays off once you start developing a series of products that have to work together. I've been contemplating getting an Android as my next phone (to replace my Symbian OS Nokia not-so-smartphone), but given that I have a Mac and an iPad already the decision to go with an iPhone makes a lot more sense. It all boils down to time: people don't want to have to spend time learning a new operating system, configuring options, etc. They want to use their device and get up to speed as quickly as possible. If you're already familiar with the system, buying another product from the same maker that uses the same system will save you many hours of learning and headaches.

I have one Mac and three PCs here at home, but I spend a lot more than three times the amount of time dealing with incompatibilities and bugs in the PCs than I do on the Mac. Even Microsoft's latest update to Windows Live Mail wiped out all our contacts, for example. They're completely gone. And when I had to migrate our email from Windows XP to Windows 7 I had to spend hours learning how to import the email files from Outlook Express to Windows Live Mail, because they're incompatible and Microsoft failed to provide an import option. I had to download third-party software to do the conversion. Apple implements planned obsolescence as well as anyone, but even they wouldn't do something quite so infuriating.


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## GOB

It looks like a bunch of my earlier posts have vanished, but many months ago I posted a chart correlating Apple's cash with the stock price, and made some projections if the trend were to continue. Here's an update:










The trend appears to be still intact (albeit with some significant temporary deviations). Apple has been trading around 5 times cash for the last 3.5 years. Adding another $25 EPS for the next two quarters and $70 EPS (based on Daniel Tello's estimates - one of the most accurate independent Apple analysts) for the following 12 months would add another $95B to Apple's coffers. Apple's cash balance would be around $210B - at 5 times cash stock price would be $1050 in September 2013. Crazy, eh?

I haven't considered the lost cash to dividend payouts over this period (about $15B) but I think the dividend can only be a positive to the stock. It may shift the trend in some undetermined way, but considering how undervalued the stock already is, I suspect that shift would increase the slope of the line.

Once again, as we were last summer, AAPL is near the very bottom of its historical valuation. We all know what happened last two times it dipped under 15 P/E... 



















Anyone buying LEAPS yet? 

Sources: http://www.asymco.com/
http://aaplmodel.blogspot.ca/2012/04/fiscal-2q-2012-final-estimates.html#more


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## praire_guy

brad said:


> Well said. The "locked system" approach of one company controlling both hardware (no clones) and software was criticized for many years because it was largely responsible for Apple's tiny market share of the PC market. But this approach pays off once you start developing a series of products that have to work together. I've been contemplating getting an Android as my next phone (to replace my Symbian OS Nokia not-so-smartphone), but given that I have a Mac and an iPad already the decision to go with an iPhone makes a lot more sense. It all boils down to time: people don't want to have to spend time learning a new operating system, configuring options, etc. They want to use their device and get up to speed as quickly as possible. If you're already familiar with the system, buying another product from the same maker that uses the same system will save you many hours of learning and headaches.
> 
> I have one Mac and three PCs here at home, but I spend a lot more than three times the amount of time dealing with incompatibilities and bugs in the PCs than I do on the Mac. Even Microsoft's latest update to Windows Live Mail wiped out all our contacts, for example. They're completely gone. And when I had to migrate our email from Windows XP to Windows 7 I had to spend hours learning how to import the email files from Outlook Express to Windows Live Mail, because they're incompatible and Microsoft failed to provide an import option. I had to download third-party software to do the conversion. Apple implements planned obsolescence as well as anyone, but even they wouldn't do something quite so infuriating.


I like the closed Eco system. I personally switched to a Mac 5 years ago this month. The software I use for music production is OSX only. 

While there was an initial learning curve, I have no regrets. I also don't know how or why micro soft is still in business. 

I bought an iPad, due to my enjoyment of osx. Since the iPhone is the same as the iPad, I went iPhone. 

I like the fact that everything just works. Apple is very intuitive. Even my dad figured out my iPad, and he can't program a VCR. 

Sure, you can hand select hardware, after extensive research but even then you are stuck with a very flakey os, even if your computer never touches the Internet.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

GOB
many thanks for the charts.
and for the insight.
i am still waiting for a better entry point which may not happen.
but like the saying goes there will always be another day to trade right?
cheers and very much luck in ur trades


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## ddkay

.. and just like that, gains erased, earnings never happened. Getting close to $550 though for the brave dip buyers


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## buhhy

praire_guy said:


> I like the closed Eco system. I personally switched to a Mac 5 years ago this month. The software I use for music production is OSX only.
> 
> While there was an initial learning curve, I have no regrets. I also don't know how or why micro soft is still in business.
> 
> I bought an iPad, due to my enjoyment of osx. Since the iPhone is the same as the iPad, I went iPhone.
> 
> I like the fact that everything just works. Apple is very intuitive. Even my dad figured out my iPad, and he can't program a VCR.
> 
> Sure, you can hand select hardware, after extensive research but even then you are stuck with a very flakey os, even if your computer never touches the Internet.


Eh, everyone to themselves. I've been using a macbook products for 4 years, and I still wish apple wrote better windows drivers, so I can stay on windows instead of osx. Viruses are usually the fault of the user, not the operating system.


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## GOB

Silly argument. Car crashes are usually the fault of the driver and not the car. Does that mean auto manufacturers shouldn't consider impact protection in their design, or that if you're buying a car you shouldn't care how safe it will be in the event of an accident?

People make mistakes. Having a computer that minimizes the impact of the various mistakes that people can make is obviously advantageous. I love how people are so cocky that they claim only idiots get viruses, when several people at my company have got viruses that IT could not trace the source of or even fix without wiping the whole computer. It's like saying only idiots get into car accidents, so I'll buy a cheap cardboard box to drive around in, because I'm smart...


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## buhhy

Yes, and Microsoft has done a really good job on security. Windows 7 is an extremely secure system. Understand that unix-based systems are secure because of the constraints the OS puts on the user. Everything that modifies system files require root access. If you ran Windows as a standard user, you won't run into half as many problems. Problem is, Microsoft has made Windows too flexible and user-focused in the past, hence the problems with viruses.

A vast majority of botnets and viruses exist because certain businesses/users don't upgrade from their Windows XP to Windows 7. Even patching XP would reduce a good amount of virus infections.


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## GOB

So, it IS the OS...

What exactly is your argument? You first say that viruses are the fault of the user and not the OS, then say Windows 7 does a great job of addressing many of the vulnerabilities of XP. Fine, I agree. Doesn't that by extension mean that OSX also does a great job in terms of security? That's all I'm trying to say.


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## ddkay

The more market share Apple OS gain, the more lucrative it becomes for organized criminals to write malicious programs. Especially because Apple customers are assumed to be wealthier than average. So for the most part security is an illusion. And that goes for everything.


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## buhhy

GOB said:


> So, it IS the OS...
> 
> What exactly is your argument? You first say that viruses are the fault of the user and not the OS, then say Windows 7 does a great job of addressing many of the vulnerabilities of XP. Fine, I agree. Doesn't that by extension mean that OSX also does a great job in terms of security? That's all I'm trying to say.


You mentioned that the OS should try to mitigate user error, and I say that Microsoft has done a good job on that front. Yes OSX has done well so far in terms of security. Whether or not that is because of the OSX marketshare isn't clear yet. The flashback trojan has already shown that the system CAN be compromised.


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## GOB

I was just attacking our statement that viruses are the fault of the user and not the OS - something you yourself have brought evidence against. 

ddkay, Apple is the largest company in the world, and you're right that the average user is wealthier. Is that already not enough reason for hackers to dedicate a lot of time and effort to compromising OSX and iOS? Yet there are very few (if any) actual incidents of viruses in the wild. Trojans are difficult to fully prevent against as the user is explicitly giving authorization to execute a command. I think the myth that viruses don't get written for Macs because of low market share can safely be shattered, considering that there was once a virus for an iPod running Linux (how many of those are there?!). It is undeniable that Apple is more secure than both Windows and Android, though Windows certainly has made improvements to their previously pathetic level of security. As with most things I say, the facts back it up.


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## ddkay

OS X is only between 6-14% marketshare according to various polls. So the short answer is no, it's not worth the effort. Attacking Windows is way easier. That's why in a corporate environment I really respect Windows admins more than *nix admins. You really have to know what you're doing. And most people don't.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems#Web_clients


----------



## buhhy

GOB said:


> I was just attacking our statement that viruses are the fault of the user and not the OS - something you yourself have brought evidence against.
> 
> ddkay, Apple is the largest company in the world, and you're right that the average user is wealthier. Is that already not enough reason for hackers to dedicate a lot of time and effort to compromising OSX and iOS? Yet there are very few (if any) actual incidents of viruses in the wild. Trojans are difficult to fully prevent against as the user is explicitly giving authorization to execute a command. I think the myth that viruses don't get written for Macs because of low market share can safely be shattered, considering that there was once a virus for an iPod running Linux (how many of those are there?!). It is undeniable that Apple is more secure than both Windows and Android, though Windows certainly has made improvements to their previously pathetic level of security. As with most things I say, the facts back it up.


The majority of hacking and virus attacks ARE the fault of the user, when they open random executable files sent over email, or downloaded keygens and the like. Socially engineered attacks are the most common consumer attacks vectors, because computer-illiterate users ARE the weakest links. What Microsoft has done was address system vulnerabilities, which EVERY system has. Microsoft unfortunately, cannot force users NOT to run best_antivirus_ever_2014.exe. Microsoft also cannot force users to use the computer at a user-level instead of admin-level. When grandmas have admin privileges and can edit system files, she can screw up a lot of things.

What Apple does, and what I think is probably a good decision, is limit flexibility for security. Windows exposes a ton of system hooks, and is thus very customizable. This obviously comes at the cost of increased vulnerabilities.

Do you have any technical reasons to state that OSX is inherently more secure than Windows 7? OSX has plenty of system vulnerabilities.

Also, most business critical applications are run on Windows, hence they are more attractive targets. Businesses are juicy targets. Upper-middle class citizens, hipsters, and university students are insignificant by comparison. Not to mention how many important targets are legacy unpatched XP systems, which allow worms like Conficker to survive. Windows insecurity is very exaggerated, especially post Windows 7.


----------



## praire_guy

I wasn't referring to viruses. I was referring to the gradual flakey ness of windows. 

Day by day it gets slower and slower, and you don't notice at first, but after a year everything just seems slow. Then it's time to reformat and recline. 

You don't need to do this with a Mac.


----------



## GOB

buhhy, I don't want to keep veering off topic, but facts are facts. Businesses are surely great targets, but then using your analogy no home user that doesn't use business critical applications would be targeted (regardless of what OS they use) and that is clearly not the case. I think a iOS/OSX user base of over a quarter of a billion is an extremely attractive market, not to mention all the other personal satisfaction a hacker might gain if he were able to compromise the OS of the most valuable company in the world, don't you think? There is plenty of money and bragging rights available in hacking Mac users and you can bet if it were as simple as Windows it would already be done. If I were a hacker and could write viruses for both systems, why would I restrict myself to one? I'd do both, obviously. Just like most apps are available for iOS and Android despite the fact that there is far more money in iOS - there is enough in Android to make it worthwhile. 

There's also this little tidbit - "There were many more Mac viruses in the days before Mac OS X" from http://www.reedcorner.net/guides/macvirus/. Now tell me why that would be the case, considering Macs' miniscule market share back before OSX and their meaningful marketshare today. I haven't verified the statement, but if true it completely shatters the theory that low market share is the reason OSX is so secure. 

Let's get back on topic and discuss the company and stock. What do you think of the charts I posted and the projections they indicate?


----------



## ddkay

reed's corner guy fairly contrasts original Mac OS flaws to original Windows "though nowhere near the current number of Windows viruses". Is that not enough to conclude that Windows had higher tendency to be attacked because of marketshare? (Hint just look who led desktop OS sales in the 90s)

The malicious programs as a byproduct of high marketshare theory has been around as long as I can remember, so it's not "new" and can't be so easily shattered.

Apple's user model for the original Mac OS wasn't very advanced. It didn't prompt users for a password to install programs, everyone just ran stuff with administrative privileges so attacking the kernel and spreading malware was easy. They fixed that in OS X. Hence, Mac had more viruses in the days before OS X.

250 million users (where does that number come from?) doesn't mean anything without comparing it against other platforms. See the link I provided earlier, multiple independent polls have counted Windows running on between 73-87% of all web clients.

In regards to your charts, that first one shows exactly what I was saying a few weeks ago. The stock market got carried away with valuation and price deviated distinguishably far from its historical 'trend'. So what I notice is the more cash per share they generate the more volatile stock price becomes. Still looks like all the effects of a Q1 credit bubble... it's interesting to look at consumer debt data too too read psychological behaviour. EPS multiples and P/E are junk info to me. I don't use PE at all because everyone always invents a reason du jour to justify those numbers. Totally unreliable.

All this said I think US indexes and Apple are due for a bounce soon. There is this death cross forming on AAPL, that is definitely something to watch. I have no positions in this name anymore but will happily go long again when I smell opportunity.


----------



## GOB

I find P/E and PEG extremely useful, with the caveat that the company is likely to maintain or increase their earnings over the coming years. A megacap stock can only go so low, and I think P/E is a useful indicator as to where that floor may be. If Apple's P/E were 30 or 50 I would be much more hesitant to invest in them - at a P/E of 14 with 90% growth rates it's an absolute no brainer. The fact that Apple tends to bottom out around a P/E of 15 can also provide good entry points to enter some options trades or add to stock positions.


----------



## buhhy

praire_guy said:


> I wasn't referring to viruses. I was referring to the gradual flakey ness of windows.
> 
> Day by day it gets slower and slower, and you don't notice at first, but after a year everything just seems slow. Then it's time to reformat and recline.
> 
> You don't need to do this with a Mac.


I've had this happen in Windows 98. Slowdowns sometimes happened in XP, when I filled up the entire disk drive. It hasn't occurred at all in Windows 7. The only times I have ever reinstalled Windows 7, is when I build a new computer, or I swap the harddrives. The primary reasons for Windows appearing to slow down is either the harddrive filling up, or the user installing too many programs that start at login.

Anyways, on topic, I feel AAPL is an absolute steal right now, and the current stock dip is completely irrational, based either on groundless assumptions about "law of large numbers", or "declines in market share because of Android", or "erosion of margins". I also think the high nominal value of AAPL scares investors off.


----------



## andrewf

I have yet to hear a good reason for AAPL to not split its shares. It can't hurt, and it might help.


----------



## buhhy

andrewf said:


> I have yet to hear a good reason for AAPL to not split its shares. It can't hurt, and it might help.


Yeah, a stock split would definitely be helpful, better for options too.


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## GOB

I agree that there can only be benefits from a split. It's pole has done it before, don't see why they would be against it now.


----------



## Dibs

Fresh off the rumour mill: 

Apple rumored to be in talks to acquire German HDTV maker Loewe



> Apple is said to be negotiating to acquire Loewe AG, a manufacturer and distributor of televisions, audio components and integrated entertainment systems, with a final decision expected to be announced by the end of this week.


----------



## phrenk

Dibs said:


> Fresh off the rumour mill:
> 
> Apple rumored to be in talks to acquire German HDTV maker Loewe



I hardly consider acquiring a $60M EUR market cap game changing for Apple.


----------



## GOB

It may or may not be a game changer but it is line with Apple's penchant for small acquisitions that they can build into their ecosystem. Siri only cost $300M an Anobit around $500M I believe. Both of those are really chump change for Apple but both very important. 

Apple spends its cash very wisely and frugally, which is why I'm not at all concerned that they'll waste their enormous stash as I would with many other companies.


----------



## andrewf

Maybe Apple will never 'waste' its cash horde, but that is only because it will never invest it. It will sit on its balance sheet until they finally get around to paying it out as a dividend or share buy-back. In the mean time, it's earning a negative real return in US treasuries and the like. You can do that yourself--there's no need to get Apple to do that for you.


----------



## GOB

I really don't care as long as I'm getting 30-40% annual returns, and easy multi-baggers on my options trades with limited calculated risks. You have no idea how or if Apple will spend the cash, nor do I. All we can assume is that they will accumulate it in bundles (somehow that's a bad thing?!) until they find a way to spend it wisely because that's what history has indicated. Perhaps their "next big thing" will require huge start-up capital and they don't want to go the debt route. If they don't do anything, they'll keep piling it up, all the while paying out some dividends and doing some buybacks. What's the problem? If Apple has 300B in cash in a couple of years time, would that be a good thing or a bad thing for the stock and the company? I'd be ecstatic as a shareholder.

Benefits of having cash (which I have mentioned before):
- Puts a floor on the stock
- Stock seems to track strongly with Apple's increasing balance sheet
- Dominate component supply chains with massive orders
- Invest in manufacturers to get exclusive rights to machinery
- Facilitate regular and increasing dividends
- Easy to go on the offensive during a market crash where most competitors may be struggling just to stay afloat

Only with Apple is having cash a bad thing. I don't hear anyone complaining about MSFT or GOOG, both of which have tons of cash as well. I would rather save it for a rainy day than piss billions away on questionable acquisitions. 

You relentlessly pound the fact that the technology industry is fickle and Apple can fall from grace very quickly. Doesn't it make sense that Apple is conservative about the returns they get considering the risky nature of their business?


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## andrewf

A $300 billion cash hoard would be a serious drag on equity returns.

I don't buy the argument that they need $100 billion for strategic reasons (ie, wrt their supply chain, investing in suppliers). If that were true, it would be tied up in inventory, accounts payable, or investments, and not cash and cash equivalents.

If they suddenly enter into a business that requires $100 billion in capital, you should be very upset as a shareholder. It is doubtful that such a business would have similar return on capital to its current business. Businesses don't have to get ever bigger. Apple doesn't have to build a moon base or buy office buildings or highways or natural gas pipelines. They should focus on maintaining high returns on equity and capital. That is going to mean buying back stock.

Plenty of people have criticized GOOG and MSFT for their cash piles.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

andrewf said:


> Apple doesn't have to build a moon base


I would totally go if they did


----------



## indexxx

andrewf said:


> It is doubtful that such a business would have similar return on capital to its current business. Businesses don't have to get ever bigger. Apple doesn't have to build a moon base or buy office buildings or highways or natural gas pipelines.


-That's baseless, there is no way of knowing that.
-They don't have to, but it's what good companies do.
-But they easily could, and why not? In order to hedge myself, I would, if I were them.


----------



## GOB

A $110 billion hoard hasn't been dragging equity returns - $300B will just put a higher floor on the stock. I'm sure Apple's management is wise enough to recognize the point at which too much cash would drag returns and then deploy the cash in the most optimal manner. Given Apple's performance over the last decade, it's really silly to criticize management about what they do with their cash. Apple has their reasons for retaining the cash that they do, and paying out the dividend that they do. Sure they can afford a 5%+ dividend or a $75B buyback, but obviously they decided against it for good reasons. I won't question them too hard about it because:

1) Management is rewarding Apple shareholders with ridiculous gains as a result of their decisions
2) I don't know the inner workings of the company and what the cash may or may not be used for
3) Cash is king - it is *never* a bad thing to have a large amount of available cash

Your argument makes no sense. You would have said the same thing about Apple's venture into the mobile phone business - they should have stuck with high margin computers and iPods because they were doing very well in terms of getting high returns. After the iPhone, you would have been concerned about the iPad, because they were already getting high returns on equity. See the flaw? Apple is incredibly well run. If they decide to spend a large amount of capital for something you can bet they anticipate high returns on that expenditure. Apple does not get into capital intensive businesses if they don't provide exceptional returns or at the very least strengthen the foundation for their other business lines. That's why we have yet to see a TV from them and we won't until the margins make sense. It doesn't have to be 100B, it could really be any amount. You're playing all sides because of your bias against the company. On the one hand you say Apple is destined for low margins from commoditization, on the other you say they should be buying back their stock because they get high returns on their equity and on the other you say they should avoid big captial expenditure because they won't match up to the incredible returns Apple can get with their existing products. What??

No offense, but as I actually am a shareholder and have accurately projected the performance of the company thus far, I pay little attention to warnings from people who don't own shares directly, have been dead wrong over and over again and have clearly shown a deep lack of understanding of the company. See Katy Huberty for another example. There are so many people who just don't get it. I continue the discussion only for anybody else wanting to hear both sides of the argument.


----------



## indexxx

Aapl finally broke $550 today. Quite the toboggan ride the past couple of weeks! I would think that big money (and everybody else) would be loading up around these prices, rebooting the uptrend.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> A $110 billion hoard hasn't been dragging equity returns - $300B will just put a higher floor on the stock. I'm sure Apple's management is wise enough to recognize the point at which too much cash would drag returns and then deploy the cash in the most optimal manner. Given Apple's performance over the last decade, it's really silly to criticize management about what they do with their cash. Apple has their reasons for retaining the cash that they do, and paying out the dividend that they do. Sure they can afford a 5%+ dividend or a $75B buyback, but obviously they decided against it for good reasons. I won't question them too hard about it because:
> 
> 1) Management is rewarding Apple shareholders with ridiculous gains as a result of their decisions
> 2) I don't know the inner workings of the company and what the cash may or may not be used for
> 3) Cash is king - it is *never* a bad thing to have a large amount of available cash
> 
> Your argument makes no sense. You would have said the same thing about Apple's venture into the mobile phone business - they should have stuck with high margin computers and iPods because they were doing very well in terms of getting high returns. After the iPhone, you would have been concerned about the iPad, because they were already getting high returns on equity. See the flaw? Apple is incredibly well run. If they decide to spend a large amount of capital for something you can bet they anticipate high returns on that expenditure. Apple does not get into capital intensive businesses if they don't provide exceptional returns or at the very least strengthen the foundation for their other business lines. That's why we have yet to see a TV from them and we won't until the margins make sense. It doesn't have to be 100B, it could really be any amount. You're playing all sides because of your bias against the company. On the one hand you say Apple is destined for low margins from commoditization, on the other you say they should be buying back their stock because they get high returns on their equity and on the other you say they should avoid big captial expenditure because they won't match up to the incredible returns Apple can get with their existing products. What??
> 
> No offense, but as I actually am a shareholder and have accurately projected the performance of the company thus far, I pay little attention to warnings from people who don't own shares directly, have been dead wrong over and over again and have clearly shown a deep lack of understanding of the company. See Katy Huberty for another example. There are so many people who just don't get it. I continue the discussion only for anybody else wanting to hear both sides of the argument.


gob
starting to look really good for an entry.
my only concern atm is how rich the spx still is.
i am patient though.
cheers


----------



## GOB

I'm licking my chops at these prices although there are a lot of bargains out there right now. There are going to be some tough choices about where to allocate capital. Anyone not already in AAPL should seriously consider legging at these levels.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> I'm licking my chops at these prices although there are a lot of bargains out there right now. There are going to be some tough choices about where to allocate capital. Anyone not already in AAPL should seriously consider legging at these levels.


Gob
525 is pivotal.
same with 500.
at 450( pipe dream) i am in.
if it ever gets back to 300 bux again in a mkt colapse i will need a bigger pipe:biggrin:


----------



## kcowan

It has a history of retracing by 1/3 so that is 644/3=215 drop or $430. But they were much less powerful as a market player back then.


----------



## GOB

I will be shocked if we see $430 without the market dropping by at least that much. I'll lose a lot of unrealized gains if that happens, but it would set the stage to make me very wealthy in the future. 

Apple has $10B to use for a buyback which is really not that much (about 2% of current market cap) but it could help in forming a base. $530 is the magic number for a 2% dividend that is ridiculously secure and almost sure to grow significantly. I imagine this is a great entry point for divided investors with a long term horizon. 

My advice again to anyone considering the stock is to get in soon with at least a partial position. It's not worth waiting for a $20 or even $50 drop that may or may not happen when the stock is easily poised to double within a few years, and pay out a healthy dividend while you wait.


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> My advice again to anyone considering the stock is to get in soon with at least a partial position. It's not worth waiting for a $20 or even $50 drop that may or may not happen when the stock is easily poised to double within a few years, and pay out a healthy dividend while you wait.


I bought a couple of years ago & averaging up this stock is not easy to do!

Having said that, with the $100+ drop in recent weeks, the stock is tempting once again!


----------



## ddkay

QCOM looks like it's dying


----------



## ddkay

Maybe everybody is taking some money out to buy Facebook shares tomorrow


----------



## Jungle

Well now I'm even looking again. Problem is holding it in non reg with the dividend..
Where does everyone hold it? RSP?


----------



## moneyisfornothing

kcowan said:


> It has a history of retracing by 1/3 so that is 644/3=215 drop or $430. But they were much less powerful as a market player back then.





GOB said:


> I will be shocked if we see $430 without the market dropping by at least that much. I'll lose a lot of unrealized gains if that happens, but it would set the stage to make me very wealthy in the future.
> 
> Apple has $10B to use for a buyback which is really not that much (about 2% of current market cap) but it could help in forming a base. $530 is the magic number for a 2% dividend that is ridiculously secure and almost sure to grow significantly. I imagine this is a great entry point for divided investors with a long term horizon.
> 
> My advice again to anyone considering the stock is to get in soon with at least a partial position. It's not worth waiting for a $20 or even $50 drop that may or may not happen when the stock is easily poised to double within a few years, and pay out a healthy dividend while you wait.



i tend to agree with such possibility atm GOB.
no offense to you nor ur expertise on the stock.
but pessimism is setting in and it will be broad if it really hits the fan.
GLTY anyway.
i would rather buy 2014 LEAPS


----------



## GOB

We all have different opinions - that's what makes a market. 2014 LEAPs are at deep discounts right now are a great way to go for a good chance of huge gains. Common shares will almost surely pay as well. 

Bullish Cross just issued a buy signal for the fifth time - check out what happened the last 4 times they did it...


----------



## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> We all have different opinions - that's what makes a market. 2014 LEAPs are at deep discounts right now are a great way to go for a good chance of huge gains. Common shares will almost surely pay as well.
> 
> Bullish Cross just issued a buy signal for the fifth time - check out what happened the last 4 times they did it...


would ya mind me asking what bulish cross?
no sarcasm here .
i will try and plot it but i cannot see it.
Leaps are a good and safe bet atm with all this panacea.
cheers and GL


----------



## PMREdmonton

Bullish Cross is a hedge fund run by a guy named Andy Zaky.

He is a famous Apple analyst who used to predict Apple's earnings and revenues on Seeking Alpha and had this habit of being very close to the actual number. 

Anyhow, he is also famous for making calls on Apple's bottoms just before the stock reverses course for another major upswing. If you jump in exactly when he said to you would have done really well over the years. Now, of course, that is backward looking information and the question is whether he can continue doing it on a forward basis.

The one thing I"ll say about this Apple correction is that it has come after a bigger run than some of the others. The stock went from 360 to 640 in the blink of an eye.

I think a simpler way to see Apple's bottoms is just to plot a curve of the 200-day moving average. Everytime Apple gets close or below this line it really takes off.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

living and learning.
GOB i thought u meant golden cross lol.
PMR it must be the johnny blue in me lol.
i think i need a brain surgey:biggrin:


----------



## PMREdmonton

If you look at the last 3 years, Apple has done well everytime they have touched their 200-day simple moving average.

Right now that average is 483 but is rising fairly rapidly.

I could see a scenario where Apple again bounces off its 200-day moving average somwhere close to 500. I really don't think it will see 430 again anytime soon but I think 480 is a possibility. Of course, 430 would be a back up the truck type opportunity after the last couple of earnings reports.


----------



## marina628

I've said it before but I sold at $430 , need my *** kicked lol


----------



## humble_pie

where are the apple put profiteers.

no sense buying leaps calls & kissing away that expensive premium.

meanwhile hedged put spreads cost nothing & have rarely looked better.


----------



## GOB

Bull put spreads are looking great too, humble, but so are LEAPs


----------



## PMREdmonton

I'm happy I didn't sell puts back around 575 heading into earnings.

Now is a much better time to sell them.

I think 425 is a reasonable strike that is unlikely to get exercised. The stock would have to go back through two sets of breakout earnings where they added lots of investors and dropped the PE to very low levels. If it drops to 500 I may just buy some as it will probably bounce soon off those levels. So long as Apple has their pricing power on iphones they will be obscenely profitable - for the moment they continue to be very strong.


----------



## gibor365

BTW, when AAPL gonna pay promised dividends?


----------



## Spudd

Subject to declaration by the Board of Directors, the Company plans to initiate a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share sometime in the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2012, which begins on July 1, 2012.


----------



## Toronto.gal

You and your dividends. :biggrin:

"Subject to declaration by the Board of Directors, the Company plans to initiate a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share sometime in the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2012, which begins on July 1, 2012."

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/201...te-Dividend-and-Share-Repurchase-Program.html

Edit: sorry Spudd, I had not seen your post.


----------



## Spudd

No worries, T.gal.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> You and your dividends. :biggrin:
> 
> "Subject to declaration by the Board of Directors, the Company plans to initiate a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share sometime in the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2012, which begins on July 1, 2012."
> 
> http://www.apple.com/pr/library/201...te-Dividend-and-Share-Repurchase-Program.html
> 
> 
> 
> Edit: sorry Spudd, I had not seen your post.



well Gibor lives on divvys T.gal?
i wish i could:rolleyes2:


----------



## GOB

Looks like I (at least temporarily) made a good call on the bottom:



GOB said:


> I would say $530 would be a good spot to get in if it ever gets there - that level provides a 2% yield so may provide a solid floor.





GOB said:


> $530 is the magic number for a 2% dividend that is ridiculously secure and almost sure to grow significantly. I imagine this is a great entry point for divided investors with a long term horizon.
> 
> My advice again to anyone considering the stock is to get in soon with at least a partial position. It's not worth waiting for a $20 or even $50 drop that may or may not happen when the stock is easily poised to double within a few years, and pay out a healthy dividend while you wait.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

very good call so far sir.
if it holds.........back to 625 for the short term.
cheers


----------



## Lephturn

Agreed on $ 530. My thesis for this trade was a combination of the fundamentals, trading action, and RSI at 30 which for AAPL has historically been an excellent opportunity. While much of my trading is non-directional, AAPL is one of the rare few where I want to be long. I am not a long term holder normally even in AAPL, but I feel like this is a once a year buying opportunity in AAPL.

Went synthetic long AAPL on Thursday.

05/17/2012	Buy To Open	1	AAPL Jan13 545 Call	$62.58	($6,265.47)
05/17/2012	Sell To Open	1	AAPL Jan13 505 Put	$52.08	$5,200.40

It's not exactly a synthetic, but the overall risk profile is about the same with the exception of not being on the same strikes. I did this with the underlying at about $ 537, so not right at the bottom but close enough for me. Buying the stock would have cost me $ 53,700 or there about. This gets me a similar risk/reward profile for $ 1,065.07. Ok to be fair I am tying up about $ 19,000 in cash, but since the cash is there at the moment might as well use it. I went out to Jan 13 as I think this will get me several new product announcements, the new iPhone 5, and the fall buying season. It won't get me the fall season financial results but I'll likely be out before then.

Delta: 91.61 Gamma: 0.04 Theta: -1.32 Vega: 16.93

So a bit of negative theta there, but otherwise it's worked out pretty well. As the stock moves up and away from my short put I will either close it or buy something even further out to unlock the margin I am tying up with that naked short put.

When I entered this trade my stop was underlying below $ 520 - but I've moved that up now to $ 550 to lock in some profits. I'm hoping to let this run into the fall, but I'll trail a stop up as I go to ensure I lock in some gains.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Very interesting Lephturn. I am new to options, what do you expect this will earn you in till Jan 2013?


----------



## ddkay

Meh, backtest at downtrend line. Not interested in this again yet.


----------



## kcowan

The nobility behind the messiah at Apple:
How does the magic happen?
This will supply an insight into the magic of Apple. Sir Jon Ive is behind the scenes. Here is some more insight:
The designer-in-chief
Be sure to read both parts.


----------



## Lephturn

Dopplegangerr said:


> Very interesting Lephturn. I am new to options, what do you expect this will earn you in till Jan 2013?


It depends on where it goes - I already have a decent return on it if I sell it now. If it break's 550 I'll take my small gain and run, then position again later. As it sits before the open at $ 565 the position is up $ 2,395 - but I am in it for the longer haul. The speed with which buyers stepped in below $530 looks to be a very nice supply level. As to expected returns, I expect to see nice upside moves when they announce iTV and iPhone 5 - I expect the position to return between $5k and $20K by year end, but the idea is to leave the upside open and protect gains with very loose trailing stops. I won't use actual stops of course, I will use options to protect those gains.


----------



## Lephturn

I found the combo of $ 530, the sharp bounce off of $522, and a very low RSI pretty compelling combined with the fundamentals of this company. It's rare to have this company break the lower Bollinger band and get below 30 on the RSI. Historically that has been a VERY good time to buy this stock.

AAPL Chart

Agreed it's not comfortable or easy to pull the trigger long when it's down this much - catching a falling knife and all that - but the idea is to buy low and sell high and $ 520 - $535 looks like a really strong supply zone. That zone was tested in the first week of March and bounced off of it nicely - that's why I liked the level and went long around there.

Oh I forgot to mention - at these prices the dividend that starts next quarter will be close to 2%. For a stock with this kind of growth that is amazing. Also with a 2% dividend AAPL now can be bought by a wide variety of funds that were prevented from owning it in the past due to their mandate.

Now if they will only surprise us all and split this thing 10:1 we could really make some gains.


----------



## brad

Some interesting comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook here from yesterday's Wall Street Journal event:

http://www.macworld.com/article/1167011/cook_apple_will_double_down_on_siri_and_secrecy.html


----------



## GOB

Good showing by Apple today at WWDC. iOS 6, Mountain Lion that tie in together with iCloud seamlessly will provide an incredible cohesive user experience between all devices. New retina display Macbook Pro is very impressive, though pricey. I'm sure they will sell well, as will the other cheaper models which got a more traditional update. Apple's laptops cannot be matched by competitors. The experience goes far beyond specs. 

Maps is going to put Google on their toes, as a fair amount of their revenue comes from the Maps app on iOS, which they are going to lose. Turn-by-turn voice navigation, traffic re-routing, 3D overview is all good stuff and seems like a good upgrade over Google Maps. 

Apple loaded the bases today. When the new iPhone comes out and iOS6 is released...get ready for the grand slam.

Didn't even mention the TV...great times are ahead. Stock is still cheap, but may get cheaper due to market turmoil.


----------



## marina628

I may buy if we see $530 again .


----------



## donald

I bought 8 shares yesterday(even though i know the stock has a bad history coming out of wwdc,and yes the turmoil)I suspect i might get abit hurt short-term but like the risk reward @ 580-long swing trade(i still have 8 shares that i bought in the mid/higher 300 huns,last summer)did sell 7 shs and took profits @ 610 (went into sbux).Lots of fear out there!I think by christmas this will look like a good buy(dropped hard @ the end of the day)There playing hardball now for sure with google and now garmin.


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## Lephturn

Well starting July you will be getting a close to 2% dividend on top of the shares so waiting will get a bit easier. 

How many fund managers running dividend funds will now be allowed to add AAPL to their portfolio?


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## GOB

Lephturn - a lot. 

Not only that - the next iPhone is going to be a massive blockbuster. The trend of Apple increasing supply, number of carriers and availability will continue and it is going to translate into absolutely ridiculous numbers. 

If the market doesn't nosedive I fully expect Apple to be far higher than it is today. Huge profit potential on my Jan 2014 LEAPs that I bought when the stock was in the $300-$400s


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## brad

GOB said:


> New retina display Macbook Pro is very impressive, though pricey. I'm sure they will sell well, as will the other cheaper models which got a more traditional update.


I'm actually not so sure on this one. Basically the new MacBook Pro is a beefed-up MacBook Air, and now lacks the key features that drew people to the older MacBook Pro: larger capacity (hard drive in old MacBook Pros vs SSD in the new one), included optical drive, upgradeability (ability to swap out hard drive, which you can't do with the soldered-in SSD in the new MacBook Pro). It's unclear to me who would buy this machine. Apple tends to force change (they were the first to eliminate floppy drives in their computers), and the transition period is usually painful for people who are still reliant on the technologies that Apple has decided to stop supporting.

When the Air came out, Apple stated publicly that this was the direction they were going to take their entire laptop line, and they've started following up accordingly. But the new MacBook Pro isn't "pro" enough to satisfy the people who normally shell out the extra bucks for pro models. It's good that they kept the traditional design and features in the smaller MacBook Pro models, so pro users can have something to buy for now, but the writing is on the wall -- the laptop as we knew it is on the way out.


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## GOB

Brad, I think we're pretty much saying the same thing in different ways. Yes, people are scared of change, which is why Apple introduced a "next-gen" model while still offering more comfortable models for people to choose from. 

Anyone who has used a SSD would never go back to a traditional hard drive. Space and cost are the only things holding back mass adoption of SSDs, and technological advances will take care of these problems pretty quickly. 

The new MBP is the most attractive machine on the market for causal and professional users who want power, battery life, display quality, lightweight and thinness. I don't think there is any arguing that. There seems to be plenty of demand so far despite the hefty price tag, as shipping times have slipped from 1-2 weeks to 3-4 weeks. Of course, this depends on how much demand Apple prepared for but the overall trend is that they have been rapidly increasing availability for major product launches. 

There is little doubt this is the future of laptop computing - SSD, lightweight, thin, brilliant display all integrated perfectly with other mobile and desktop devices. As with the iPhone and iPad, this will likely be remembered as the product that created a step change in its product category.


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## andrewf

You mean the macbook pro as you knew it, right?

Other makers will continue to make all form factors as long as there is a market. They don't tell the market that they don't need high capacity hard drives or optical drives.

Long term, I doubt the device you are carrying around will matter much.


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## andrewf

I will have to check out the new display. My current laptop has a 1080p screen, and that is probably overkill. The screen may be nice, but that is likely for reasons other than the resolution.

SSDs are indeed nice, and they may eventually be inexpensive enough to put magnetic disks out to pasture, but that time is not yet, and probably not in the next couple years. So, to release a line without the option of magnetic disks seems premature. Anyone who needs to carry around a lot of data is out of luck.

Really, most of the benefits of SSD drives comes with a relatively small drive for the OS and applications. Media can be kept on a magnetic drive without much performance difference.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> You mean the macbook pro as you knew it, right?


No, because everyone tends to follow Apple's lead, but also because even Microsoft's position is that optical drives are a thing of the past. They'll gradually disappear just as floppy drives did. SSD capacity will increase and price will go down, but I think the assumption going forward is that files will be stored in the cloud rather than locally. Infrastructure and cost concerns (e.g. bandwidth caps) are holding back the future in this regard, but I assume those issues will disappear eventually. 

The early reviews I've seen of the new MacBook Pro are generally positive in terms of its performance (I like the fact that text viewed on the new screen is actually sharper than on a printed page), but I've also seen a lot of comments that this is a computer ahead of its time. That's typical of Apple and there will likely be millions of early adopters; the rest of us will wait.


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## GOB

Apple is not premature, they are ahead of the curve and dictating the future as always do. Calling their new MBP premature implies there are severe deficiencies. I wouldn't call anything about it deficient in any way. It offers up to 768GB of SSD storage, albeit at high cost. The base model has 256GB - not exactly a tiny amount. It was only a few years ago when 40/80GB of standard, slow, unreliable HD capacity was considered cutting edge. 

As I said, anyone not ready to make the leap can choose any other laptop that Apple also upgraded. The MacBook Airs are extremely impressive considering their size and weight.

You're right that other vendors don't tell the market what to do, but Apple certainly does, and they tell other vendors what to do as well since they typically hop on Apple's carriage. As someone who's clearly biased against the company I know it's a painful realization for you, but it is the indisputable truth. 

Some other statements that someone who thinks like you would have made in the past:

- Apple is premature with this "mouse", the market will decide when they want something better than the keyboard
- Apple is premature gettting rid of the floppy disk, the market will decide when they don't want to use it anymore 
- Apple is premature getting rid of the physical keyboard on smartphones, the market clearly loves Blackberries. iPhone won't sell well, especially to those who use email on their phones
- Apple is premature with the iPad, according to the market tablets are supposed to have a stylus and run a desktop class OS that isn't optimized for it. 
- Apple is premature creating an online store or people to purchase OSX and various other programs on, the market clearly likes going to physical stores and buying disks with excess packaging

Sounds kind of silly, doesn't it? It's exactly what you're doing now. Your (lack of) understanding about the industry and those that shape it is mind blowing.

Apple does not wait for anyone to tell them what they want. They dictate. The famous Henry Ford quote comes to mind here - "if I asked people what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse."


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## andrewf

There's nothing wrong with offering form factors without optical drives, physical keyboards. But not offering them period will turn away customers that require these features. Of course, those consumers are wrong and are in need of re-education.


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## ddkay

You can still use an optical drive, just plug in a _dongle_ lol
You can still use ethernet, just plug in a _dongle_]

Maybe they'll sell a dock for an extra $200 to cover all your bases


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## GOB

andrewf said:


> There's nothing wrong with offering form factors without optical drives, physical keyboards. But not offering them period will turn away customers that require these features. Of course, those consumers are wrong and are in need of re-education.


What exactly are you trying to say? I've said over and over again, all their laptops have been upgraded (with the exception of the 17" MBP). Nobody was complaining before. All Apple has done is add another option to their existing lineup. Why are you insisting that Apple is not offering optical drives period? Take a look at the 13" and 15" MBPs - optical drives still exist. They won't for long, because they are virtually useless now, and Apple is the first to act on this inevitable fact.

Are you suggesting Apple should offer an iPhone with a physical keyboard? Do you not understand the fragmentation that would create within iOS? Once again, you don't get the bigger picture. Apple is not interested in people who want physical keyboards, because they are luddites who will either eventually come around or are not worth pursuing. It's very simple. Apple will not cater to people stuck in the past - they are happy letting companies like RIM fight for those low-value scraps.

Macbook Airs are selling extremely well, by the way. Apple is not in the business of trying to be everything to everyone - they leave that for the dozens of other vendors who offer hundreds of other commodity products. Apple differentiates itself by offering cutting edge design and technology (and I don't mean raw specs here, I mean step changes in the way we use our devices). That is why they command the margins that they do. You are so sure their margins are going to drop and normalize at the level of everyone else, because you just don't get it.


----------



## jtc

Lots of disgruntled Mac Pro users floating around internet forums after WWDC. Apple actually had the nerve to tag a "new" stamp on these systems(It has since been removed). They upgraded the 4 year old cpu to a 2 year old cpu(since intel stopped making the "old" ones) and still kept the $70 video card and the 6GB of RAM. By the time this system actually gets refreshed, close to ~1000 days will have past since the last update. Sounds pretty good for a system with a base starting price of 3k, wouldn't you say? :rolleyes2:

Lots of talk of people switching to a Windows system or Hackintosh. The other products(save the imac/mini) should sell ok though.


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## GOB

The Mac Pro was definitely a weak upgrade and is not currently worth the price tag. I can admit where Apple goes wrong. Their rationale is probably that it is an extremely small subset of their revenue and user base, and they had more important things to work on, which they did very well (new iPad, iOS 6, Mountain Lion, Macbook Pro and Air, next iPhone). Tim Cook has said an overhaul will be done sometime next year. I'm sure it will be great, but you are correct that some people may have moved to other options by then. No reason they can't move back though if the next iteration of Mac Pros are compelling enough.

I agree that they should try and maintain a good experience for the pro users, but on a broad level for the stock and for the company, the Mac Pro is probably the last thing they have time to address. I can understand the frustration of people wanting a good update but can also see the issues from Apple's perspective.


----------



## andrewf

Shouldn't one of the most valuable companies in the world be able to handle refreshing an existing product line?

Apple is hardly turning into GE. I always found it hard to believe a hundred billion dollar company with thousands of employees can't handle more than a half dozen things at a time.


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> Their rationale is probably that it is an extremely small subset of their revenue and user base, and they had more important things to work on,


I agree with that, and desktop sales have lagged far behind notebook sales at Apple for years now. The delays are also probably due to a fundamental debate at Apple of whether to continue to pursue the pro line, given that many pro users get their work done just fine on an iMac or a MacBook Pro with external monitors and hard drives. Most of the pro users are in photography, video, or graphic design, and the new MacBook Pro is designed for those users: you can plug in multiple external hard drives and monitors via Thunderbolt or USB3, and then take your machine with you on the road for on-site work.

I wear size 14 shoes and I face the same marginalization issues as the owners of the MacBook Pro: there aren't enough people like me to make it worthwhile for most shoe manufacturers to include my size in their product line. And frequently the few retailers that carry size 14 decide at some point to consolidate and stop carrying them (Mountain Equipment Co-op did this last year and it really steamed me because they were the only convenient Canadian source for the type of shoes I generally buy). It sucks for me, but from a business perspective it's understandable.


----------



## Dibs

One of the features of the macbook pro was that it was relatively upgradable. You could swap your optical drive for an extra HDD, or switch to SSDs as well. Apple supplied these replacement parts on their web store. However, I think apple is moving away from the "upgradable" aspect of their products. They are probably moving away from the offering the macbook pro. The new "macbook with retina display" is largely designed from components of the macbook air, which is quite un-upgradable. The RAM is soldered in, as are many other core components of the laptop. What this means is that when something breaks, it is very hard to fix it yourself, and the repairs might also be just as expensive. I think that Apple is moving towards making these laptops more of a consumer item in which you buy a new one every iteration. You already see this with the iphone and ipad.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Shouldn't one of the most valuable companies in the world be able to handle refreshing an existing product line?
> 
> Apple is hardly turning into GE. I always found it hard to believe a hundred billion dollar company with thousands of employees can't handle more than a half dozen things at a time.


You find it hard to believe because you don't have a clue. What other company refreshes and overhauls as much as Apple just did? Please do tell. You suffer from the common thinking of "more is better." Apple believes in doing a few things right (which takes just as much or more time and effort than doing many things to a lower standard), and I think their success speaks volumes. It is why they're able of offer products that competitor take years to match. It's why competitors can't compete on price with equivalent notebooks and tablets. 

Apple comes out with a new OS every year. Why does MSFT take years to come up with ones that aren't even as good? They have thousands of employees too, and they are far less involved in hardware, which take an immense amount of engineering, design, testing etc.


----------



## brad

Dibs said:


> One of the features of the macbook pro was that it was relatively upgradable. You could swap your optical drive for an extra HDD, or switch to SSDs as well.


There's always been internal tension at Apple on the issue of upgradeability. In the early years there was a huge argument about whether to include slots for cards, etc., and while the early Apple computerse (e.g. Apple II) were highly upgradeable the forces at the company in favour of standardization won out. The main benefit is consistency across hardware, which allows Apple and developers to provide features that can't be duplicated in the wildly diverse hardware ecosystem of Windows. There's a really good description of this debate and internal tension here:

http://www.folklore.org/StoryView.p...Port.txt&sortOrder=Sort by Date&detail=medium

Key quote: "Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak was a strong believer in hardware expandability, and he endowed the Apple II with luxurious expandability in the form of seven built-in slots for peripheral cards, configured in a clever architecture that allowed each card to incorporate built-in software on its own ROM chip. This flexibility allowed the Apple II to be adapted to a wider range of applications, and quickly spawned a thriving third-party hardware industry. 

But Jef Raskin had a very different point of view. He thought that slots were inherently complex, and were one of the obstacles holding back personal computers from reaching a wider audience. He thought that hardware expandability made it more difficult for third party software writers since they couldn't rely on the consistency of the underlying hardware. His Macintosh vision had Apple cranking out millions of identical, easy to use, low cost appliance computers and since hardware expandability would add significant cost and complexity it was therefore avoided. Apple's other co-founder, Steve Jobs, didn't agree with Jef about many things, but they both felt the same way about hardware expandability: it was a bug instead of a feature. Steve was reportedly against having slots in the Apple II back in the days of yore, and felt even stronger about slots for the Mac. He decreed that the Macintosh would remain perpetually bereft of slots, enclosed in a tightly sealed case, with only the limited expandability of the two serial ports."


----------



## andrewf

His Macintosh vision had Apple cranking out millions of identical, easy to use, *low cost appliance computers* and since hardware expandability would add significant cost and complexity it was therefore avoided."

Unfortunately that vision has not been realized. It may make the devices that cost less to manufacture, but not lower cost to the end consumer. That still comes from slot-ridden PC notebooks and desktops.

I find it hard to believe that built-in, planned obsolescence was not a major consideration in the decision to make it difficult for end-users to upgrade, repair or replace components.


----------



## GOB

I wouldn't say Apple doesn't partake in planned obsolescence, but every other vendor does so as well to an equal or greater extent. 

It would be impossible to make a laptop as thin, light and powerful as the retina MBP while maintaining upgradability. As in every design and end product, tradeoffs were made. It's a fact of life. 

Apple is supporting their older devices far better than most. The iPhone 3GS, for example, will be capable of running iOS 6. That's a 4 year old device running cutting edge software. For comparison, only the latest and greatest Android phones are compatible with the latest version of Android to the point of ridiculousness. In fact, only 7% of Android phones are running ICS, while 80% of iPhones run iOS5. Both were released around the same time. Look no further than any other smartphone maker for a shining example of planned obsolescence. 

On the desktop side, Apple's OS upgrades cost very little. Mountain Lion is $20 - they are encouraging users of older machines to use the latest software. How much would it cost to upgrade to the next version of Windows without buying a new machine? 


As for making it difficult for consumers to repair - the AppleCare service is second to none and is always rated at the top of the industry. I have received a replacement iPhone and MBP no questions asked for the times where the devices have failed on me. I don't think Apple would build their machines to fail because that is a large cost for them to bear and is a hit to their margins. AppleCare is valid for three years which is a good amount of time for a piece of hardware these days. Of course, most of them last much longer than this and Apple even sometimes repairs unwarranted devices for no cost, at their discretion.

Sounds like they're really out to screw the consumer and make them upgrade their hardware every year, right?

Facts are a lot more convincing than conjecture, aren't they?


----------



## buhhy

GOB said:


> I wouldn't say Apple doesn't partake in planned obsolescence, but every other vendor does so as well to an equal or greater extent.
> 
> It would be impossible to make a laptop as thin, light and powerful as the retina MBP while maintaining upgradability. As in every design and end product, tradeoffs were made. It's a fact of life.
> 
> Apple is supporting their older devices far better than most. The iPhone 3GS, for example, will be capable of running iOS 6. That's a 4 year old device running cutting edge software. For comparison, only the latest and greatest Android phones are compatible with the latest version of Android to the point of ridiculousness. In fact, only 7% of Android phones are running ICS, while 80% of iPhones run iOS5. Both were released around the same time. Look no further than any other smartphone maker for a shining example of planned obsolescence.
> 
> On the desktop side, Apple's OS upgrades cost very little. Mountain Lion is $20 - they are encouraging users of older machines to use the latest software. How much would it cost to upgrade to the next version of Windows without buying a new machine?
> 
> 
> As for making it difficult for consumers to repair - the AppleCare service is second to none and is always rated at the top of the industry. I have received a replacement iPhone and MBP no questions asked for the times where the devices have failed on me. I don't think Apple would build their machines to fail because that is a large cost for them to bear and is a hit to their margins. AppleCare is valid for three years which is a good amount of time for a piece of hardware these days. Of course, most of them last much longer than this and Apple even sometimes repairs unwarranted devices for no cost, at their discretion.
> 
> Sounds like they're really out to screw the consumer and make them upgrade their hardware every year, right?
> 
> Facts are a lot more convincing than conjecture, aren't they?


Your point is moot when you consider that iOS 4 effectively broke the iPhone 3G, and iOS 5 effectively broke the iPhone 3GS.
And AppleCare has better be good considering it's paid insurance, all Apple hardware only comes with 1 year of complimentary warranty.

Apple is primarily a hardware company. They sell their software at a loss or low margin to markup their hardware. The software costs are already factored into the hardware prices. Most people don't realize this when they tout "derp, OSX costs $20 to upgrade while Windows costs $100". No **** Sherlock, just like how carrier subsidized phones AREN'T actually cheap!

PS: No PC OEMs would make their computers fail, that would be tantamount to suicide.


----------



## GOB

buhhy said:


> Your point is moot when you consider that iOS 4 effectively broke the iPhone 3G, and iOS 5 effectively broke the iPhone 3GS.
> And AppleCare has better be good considering it's paid insurance, all Apple hardware only comes with 1 year of complimentary warranty.
> 
> Apple is primarily a hardware company. They sell their software at a loss or low margin to markup their hardware. The software costs are already factored into the hardware prices. Most people don't realize this when they tout "derp, OSX costs $20 to upgrade while Windows costs $100". No **** Sherlock, just like how carrier subsidized phones AREN'T actually cheap!
> 
> PS: No PC OEMs would make their computers fail, that would be tantamount to suicide.


And your point is moot when you consider the iPhone 3GS is the third best selling phone in the US, and every new one ships with iOS5. Nice try though. 

Yes, paid insurance should be good, but often it is not. Most insurance companies and providers will try to find any loophole they can to get out of a reimbursement. Apple is head and shoulders above most, especially in the technology field. Again, satisfaction studies confirm this. 

I don't care what costs are built where. If I want a laptop like the Macbook Air, I may as well get it from Apple because nobody can make it better for the same cost. I have the added bonus of $20-30 OS upgrades for years on end.


----------



## buhhy

GOB said:


> And your point is moot when you consider the iPhone 3GS is the third best selling phone in the US, and every new one ships with iOS5. Nice try though.


Bullshit. IPhone 4S & 4, Galaxy Nexus, Galaxy SII, Galaxy Note, Lumia 900, are some of the recent best-sellers in the US. The One X, One S, and Galaxy SIII are undoubtedly doing well, though they were only released recently. The 3GS doesn't make the top 10. Sales also doesn't mean the phone doesn't lag.



GOB said:


> Yes, paid insurance should be good, but often it is not. Most insurance companies and providers will try to find any loophole they can to get out of a reimbursement. Apple is head and shoulders above most, especially in the technology field. Again, satisfaction studies confirm this.
> 
> I don't care what costs are built where. If I want a laptop like the Macbook Air, I may as well get it from Apple because nobody can make it better for the same cost. I have the added bonus of $20-30 OS upgrades for years on end.


Ok fair enough then, if you don't care. To each and their own.


----------



## Vitalogy80

It's starting it's quarterly run into earnings season yet again...might be a good time to get in if you aren't already.


----------



## Vitalogy80

http://techland.time.com/2012/05/02...n-smartphone-sales-still-trails-apple-in-u-s/

"Still, Apple’s iPhone dominated the top three spots in NPD’s first quarter U.S. handset rankings, with the iPhone 4S and 4 placing first and second, respectively, followed by the iPhone 3GS. Samsung’s Galaxy S II placed fourth, while the HTC EVO 3D took fifth."

So where is your proof that the iPhone 3GS isn't selling well?


----------



## Jon_Snow

Been thinking about getting an iPad... yet today Microsoft unveiled a suprisingly promising tablet of its own. Interesting times in tech. As a loyal Xbox player for the last 10 years, I find myself kinda rooting for ol' MS. Strangely though, I own Apple shares... confusing times for Jon Snow. :tongue-new:


----------



## GOB

buhhy said:


> Bullshit. IPhone 4S & 4, Galaxy Nexus, Galaxy SII, Galaxy Note, Lumia 900, are some of the recent best-sellers in the US. The One X, One S, and Galaxy SIII are undoubtedly doing well, though they were only released recently. The 3GS doesn't make the top 10. Sales also doesn't mean the phone doesn't lag.
> 
> 
> 
> Ok fair enough then, if you don't care. To each and their own.


Yeah...I'll just leave this here to clue you in:



> Still, Apple’s iPhone dominated the top three spots in NPD’s first quarter U.S. handset rankings, with the iPhone 4S and 4 placing first and second, respectively, followed by the iPhone 3GS. Samsung’s Galaxy S II placed fourth, while the HTC EVO 3D took fifth.


Read more: http://techland.time.com/2012/05/02...ales-still-trails-apple-in-u-s/#ixzz1yCCNE1XR

So, you're the one who's spouting bullshit. And yeah, the third best selling phone in the US is going to be a lagging piece of crap, right? Apple is going to willingly keep the 3GS for sale and let it run on the latest software even though it would become unusable and greatly tarnish their reputation, right? Great arguments there. I don't know why I bother...

The fact that you think the Lumia outsells the 3GS is a huge red flag that you don't have a clue. Helpful tip for future discussions - before trying to sound like such a know-it-all, it might be prudent to do some research on your outlandish statements. It would make for a meaningful debate.

Edit: I see Vitalogy80 beat me to the punch. Good to see I'm not the only one who can spend a minute to do some research.


----------



## kcowan

Jon_Snow said:


> Been thinking about getting an iPad... yet today Microsoft unveiled a suprisingly promising tablet of its own. Interesting times in tech. As a loyal Xbox player for the last 10 years, I find myself kinda rooting for ol' MS. Strangely though, I own Apple shares... confusing times for Jon Snow. :tongue-new:


DW bought an iPad yesterday. She is non-technical so I was PC support. I made a point of being there but she made all the decisions. The only contribution I made was for her to buy the biggest memory and wifi only. she bought 2 years of Apple Care too. I expect she will return to the Apple Store for some of their scheduled tutorials.

I am also rooting to MS. But I am not hopeful. They have not come out with anything truly innovative in 20 years. It will be interesting to see how the industry reacts to their entry into the PC business again. It seems that Google is managing it fine.


----------



## GOB

Here we are past $600 again. Apple is showing strength despite an up and down market - looks like a healthy runup into earnings in three weeks. Hope a few of you hopped on at $530 where I called the bottom. 

Rumours are going around that Apple will introduce an "iPad Mini" 7-8" tablet in the next few months. If true it will obliterate sales of the Kindle Fire and Nexus 7 and ensure that Apple contines to rule the tablet market. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we are well over $700 by the end of the year.


----------



## andrewf

Depends on if people buy Kindles because they are 7" or because they cost $200. I'm guessing Apple wouldn't want to cannibalize iPad sales by offering iPad mini at a price that is very competitive at the $200 price post (say $250-$300).


----------



## brad

Yeah, I think the Nexus 7 is the biggest threat to the Kindle Fire because it's priced the same but provides a lot more functionality. A 7-inch iPad might not cost $200 but will have more functionality and features than the Nexus 7 (at least the current first-generation Nexus 7). I don't think the small iPad would actually cannibalize sales of the "full size" iPad because there will always be some people who prefer the larger size and wouldn't have a use for the smaller one, and vice versa. They're just offering more choice.

I think the Nexus 7 pretty much forces Apple to come out with a competing product the same size. See David Pogue's review here: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/t...sly-challenges-the-ipad-state-of-the-art.html


----------



## Vitalogy80

Vitalogy80 said:


> It's starting it's quarterly run into earnings season yet again...might be a good time to get in if you aren't already.


It's up about $40 in the last week...still got room to run.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Depends on if people buy Kindles because they are 7" or because they cost $200. I'm guessing Apple wouldn't want to cannibalize iPad sales by offering iPad mini at a price that is very competitive at the $200 price post (say $250-$300).


It won't cannibalize iPads. It'll be priced higher but fairly competitively with the Kindle Fire and Nexus 7. An iPad Mini would eat into competitor market share far more than taking away iPad sales. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Kindle Fire and other 7" tablets don't compete with Apple much and are in their own sub-market. Introducing an Apple option in that space will be huge. 

Does selling the iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4 eat into iPhone 4S sales? Nope. This won't either. They will be two very different products for two different markets.


----------



## andrewf

Okay, so we understand each other, when I say cannibalize, I mean that people who buy a 7" iPad may have otherwise have bought a full fized iPad. To say that a 7" would not cannibalize any sales of full-size iPads is quite a stretch to me. To say that is to say that everyone who buys a 7" iPad would not have bought a full-size iPad, or will buy both the 7" and the 10" model. I don't think this would describe all or even most of the buyers of a 7" iPad.

Cannibalization is not necessarily bad, as long as the gross profit per unit sold is the same.

I seem to recall Steve saying that 7 inch screens were a stupid idea back when the playbook and kindle were announced/released.


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## Vitalogy80

Of course iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4 sales eat into iPhone 4S sales...it's still good for Apple either way, but I'm sure they'd sell more 4S's if they only had the 4S as an option. Though I'd also bet they'd sell a lot less iPhones in total.


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## andrewf

^ Thanks for saying that. I thought about editing my post to add that comment but decided to let it go.


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## GOB

It is not cannibalization in the proper sense of the word. If you take it literally then yes, there will be a few people who opt for an iPad Mini over an iPad, but not enough to meaningfully affect sales numbers. If people want an iPad and can afford an iPad they'll get an iPad. If people want an iPad and can't afford an iPad they may get the iPad Mini. If people want a smaller tablet they will get the Mini. Different people, different markets, little overlap. 

Same goes with the iPhones. If people can afford the latest model they will generally get it. If they can't they'll opt for the cheaper, older ones. For the most part they serve different markets. 

iPhone vs iPod is true cannibalization. Apple will not cannibalize their money makers for ones that make less money.


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## andrewf

So only 'a few' current iPad customers would want an iPad mini? Without iPad mini, they would go to Google or Amazon for their tablet?

That's just crazy talk.


----------



## GOB

Yes, they either want a 9.7" iPad and can afford it, or they want a cheaper smaller tablet (iPad Mini, Kindle Fire, Nexus 7 etc). Why would someone with an iPad (or in the market for an iPad) settle for an iPad Mini? The extra 2" of screen real estate is huge and has both advantages and disadvantages. Again - for the most part they appeal to different people, as does the price. Does a 13" laptop cannibalize a 15" laptop? THAT is crazy talk. 

There is a reason the Kindle Fire did so well in the holiday quarter with almost zero impact on iPad sales. It's because almost anyone who bought a Kindle Fire was never in the market for an iPad anyway. Do you get it yet?

I think all 120 pages of this thread clearly shows who does the crazy talk in here and who has the track record of being right. It's there for all to see.


----------



## Sampson

GOB said:


> Yes, they either want a 9.7" iPad and can afford it, or they want a cheaper smaller tablet (iPad Mini, Kindle Fire, Nexus 7 etc). Why would someone with an iPad (or in the market for an iPad) settle for an iPad Mini? The extra 2" of screen real estate is huge and has both advantages and disadvantages. Again - for the most part they appeal to different people, as does the price. Does a 13" laptop cannibalize a 15" laptop? THAT is crazy talk.


Assuming Apple has this right is the same as assuming Apple had a client base in mind when they produced the 11" MacBook Air. There are clear benefits of a 7" tablet, and price is not the only selling point.

I'm a client that would like to see a more functional device (e.g. MacBook Air) in a 10" tablet form, OR a more function mini-device (e.g. something better than a 10" iPad in a small form).

Maybe you guys need to define cannibilize. I'm with andrewf on this one. If someone buys a 7" iPad mini, they won't buy a new iPad. That 7" customer, whether they would have or not WAS a potential new iPad buying. One less customer on the market because they bought something from the same manufacturer, in my eyes, that's called cannibalization.


----------



## GOB

No...let's say I'm the market for a BMW but my budget is $50,000. If I buy a 3-series has BMW cannibalized sales of their M6? Same manufacturer. 

Again with the laptop example. If I am looking for a 15 laptop and buy one, I won't be buying a 13" laptop for at least a few years, because I'm out of the market. It doesn't mean I've cannibalized 13" sales. Makes no sense.


----------



## Vitalogy80

GOB said:


> I think all 120 pages of this thread clearly shows who does the crazy talk in here and who has the track record of being right. It's there for all to see.


You sound a little like Steve Jobs..."I'm always right, and even when I'm wrong, I'm right".

All I was saying was that if Apple stopped selling the 3GS and 4, that iPhone 4S sales would increase. Do you really think everyone who wants an iPhone, wants the best and most expensive one? Of course not...so when Apple gives cheaper options, many people will take the cheaper option, because people like my mom for example could care less about how fast it is or about SIRI. But if Apple only had the 4S as an option, more people would buck up the extra cash to buy the 4S. I imagine total iPhone sales would go down, but iPhone 4S sales would go up. That just seems logical to me.


----------



## Sampson

GOB said:


> No...let's say I'm the market for a BMW but my budget is $50,000. If I buy a 3-series has BMW cannibalized sales of their M6? Same manufacturer.
> 
> Again with the laptop example. If I am looking for a 15 laptop and buy one, I won't be buying a 13" laptop for at least a few years, because I'm out of the market. It doesn't mean I've cannibalized 13" sales. Makes no sense.


Your BMW example is not even close since the cars you compare are at very different price points, and Car Manufacturers already have have products at each different consumer base.

Your laptop example also doesn't make sense. I think several of us are saying your laptop example is an example of cannibalization - if the product is made by a single manufacturer.

Let me pose an Apple example.
If there are 1 iPod available. 16GB touch for $200. Then they release a new one 10Gb for $100. You don't think the sales of the new lower price device will take away sales from the higher priced one?

You assume there is enough market segmentation to support 2 independent lines - a full sized and mini-sized device. None of us agree. Only time will tell.


----------



## GOB

> In marketing strategy, cannibalization refers to a reduction in sales volume, sales revenue, or market share of one product as a result of the introduction of a new product by the same producer.


The iPhone 4S is NOT being cannibalized by other iPhones, end of story. The iPod IS being cannibalized. Just becuase a few people will choose one product over the other does not mean cannibalization is occurring. It is a broad term meant to apply to the entire product category - not a case by case basis. When I say the iPad will not be cannibalized by a smaller, cheaper one, I mean on the whole its sales, revenues and profit will not be affected. Of course a few people here and there may choose one when they were thinking of the other, but those numbers are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. 

Of course I assume there is enough market segmentation because they are very different products at likely very different price points (just as or even more different than a 13" vs 15" laptop in both respects). I can logically conclude that they will serve largely different markets and just as in a laptop line, no cannibalization will occur. Time will indeed tell. 

Both my examples are perfectly analogous. A company can have multiple products in the same line (cars, laptops) with different feature sets and prices which appeal to different consumers. Why would the tablet market be any different? This argument is so basic it's ridiculous.


----------



## andrewf

Is a 7" iPad _really_ a totally different market than the market for the 10: iPad? They basically do the same thing, but one is smaller.


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## Sampson

This discussion is ridiculous because everything stated is hearsay. End of story. None of us (I assume and could stand to be corrected) work in marketing within the hi-tech industry, we don't analyze the potential consumer base, and non of us have studied whether iPad mini customers are different from 10" iPad customers.

Vitalogy's post is the best of us all.

You are basically saying that and iPad mini consumer would never consider a full iPad. Extend it to cars, laptops, anything. People look outside of a specific class when they purchase. They may choose up or down, and that decision certainly impacts the sales of each product class.

How are the sales of the iPad2 these days? Have they been cannibilized by the introduction of the new iPad? You have assumed that all would be buyers of the iPad mini have been sitting on the sidelines all this time, and that introduction will open an entire new class of customers for Apple. Or MacBook Air consumers (myself included) never looked at normal or Pro versions?

I'm not sure why you are arguing this senseless discussion so vigorous. Who cares if iPad mini sales cannibilize normal iPad sales? (i.e. volume declines, per your definition). Maybe the margin on iPad minis is higher and this moves is even better for Apple?


----------



## GOB

None of you seem to understand the definition of cannibalization. The way you are interpreting it virtually every single product would be cannibalizing each other and the term would have no meaning. 

You're right - none of us know what Apple will do. Margins for the smaller iPad will almost certainly be smaller (believe it or not I actually do research the various spaces Apple is in or planning to go into) unless Apple decides to make the Mini significantly lower quality (lower-res screen, low memory space etc). If that were case it distinguishes the products even more and my point still stands that on the whole they would target different consumers. It doesn't take a marketing degree or employment in the field to realize that. All it takes is common sense and an analysis of the existing 10" and 7" tablet markets. There are millions of people who have settled for a 7" tablet (or are waiting with no tablet) because iPad is either too big or too expensive. A much smaller fraction of that would actually consider switching from one to the other.

A lot of people are clueless about this space, kind of like how the iPad was laughed at at launch and mocked for just being a "big iPod". It takes insight and a lot of research to understand this industry - something I've done and continue to do every day.

As for your question about who cares - I care. As someone heavily invested in the company I would certainly care if Apple deliberately cannibalizes their fastest growing product for one that would certainly be lower quality and less useful. Why shouldn't I care?

This whole argument is about a fictitious product but nonetheless it is interesting as it potentially has a huge impact. If the iPad Mini ever does come out, it will have a price and a feature set that distinguishes it from the iPad. You can bet on that. Perhaps the reason it hasn't happened yet is that Apple is struggling to find an adequate profit margin at the price they need to sell it at. After all, Kindle Fire loses money and Nexus 7 will probably break even at best. Apple doesn't sell hardware for free, but they cannot stray too far from the $199 price. Can their operational efficiencies and small price premium give them their traditional 40% margin, or would they be willing to take sloghtly lower profits? That's the big question.


----------



## Sampson

GOB said:


> Perhaps the reason it hasn't happened yet is that Apple is struggling to find an adequate profit margin at the price they need to sell it at. After all, Kindle Fire loses money and Nexus 7 will probably break even at best. Apple doesn't sell hardware for free, but they cannot stray too far from the $199 price. Can their operational efficiencies and small price premium give them their traditional 40% margin, or would they be willing to take sloghtly lower profits? That's the big question.


Forget the definition of cannibilization. It is clear you understand the term but none of us does.

You do make an interesting point here about pricing for the product. My guess is that it will sell to a premium to the $200 units, AND it will offer somewhat better specs, that's what Apple has always done, why change this. Consumers are clearly willing to pay that premium.


----------



## GOB

Agreed, but I think anything over the $279-299 range would be overkill. That could be enough for a nice healthy margin though, depending on the materials Apple chooses to use.


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## andrewf

GOB, the mistake you seem to be making is assuming cannibalization is a bad thing. It can be a valid strategy. Starbucks saturates markets even though their locations could individually be more productive if there were fewer outlets. They cannibalize their own sales to protect market share and make it difficult for new entrants. Apple is doing the same thing with a 7" iPad.


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## riseofamillionaire

I don't think Steve Jobs would have approved of a 7" iPad. It gives Apple an image of being a follower, up until now they've been the leaders. Just keep improving the high margin iPad and make iTV amazing.


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## kcowan

If AAPL had believed in cannibalization, they would have introduced a smartphone that could not play music to protect their iPod.

As for being perceived as a follower, a smaller for factor retina display might be a good marketing choice. I would not do it but who knows what they will do. I might go for a 15" iPad first because that leads toward iTV...


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## GOB

andrewf said:


> GOB, the mistake you seem to be making is assuming cannibalization is a bad thing. It can be a valid strategy. Starbucks saturates markets even though their locations could individually be more productive if there were fewer outlets. They cannibalize their own sales to protect market share and make it difficult for new entrants. Apple is doing the same thing with a 7" iPad.


No, I'm making no such mistake. Apple willingly cannibalized the iPod and I think it was brilliant strategy so I would never assume it's a bad thing. You are not grasping the meaning of cannibalization.


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## ddkay

Has there been any rumours/news about Mac Mini and/or Mac Pro getting updated to Ivy Bridge?


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## GOB

New Mac Pros will be out sometime in 2013. Last upgrade was very minor so this upcoming one should be a major overhaul. It's a long time to wait though


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## andrewf

I guess myself and half the other people who chimed in just don't get it. I think maybe you're getting stuck on the definition as a new product reducing sales of the older product. It doesn't have to be a reduction in absolute terms, but could be a reduction relative to what might have happened otherwise (vs the counterfactual). I suppose that we can agree to disagree that no one would buy a 7" iPad when absent that choice they would buy one of the existing models.


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## buhhy

I believe Apple undercutting themselves significantly would be a big mistake. The perceived threat to them now is the new Nexus 7 tablet by Google, which is being sold at $200 and has ridiculous specs for the price. But really, when has Apple competed for the lower margins? I think a $300 base price tag is reasonable, maybe even higher. If it's lower, I would be worried, though I'm already worried that Apple is following into the 7" tablet space.

Also, cannibalization is one product taking the sales of another product from the same company. Sales don't have to drop, they just have to be lower than what they would have been had the new product not been created.


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## Spudd

Higher than $300 would be nuts, since you can get the iPad 2 for $400.


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## kcowan

buhhy said:


> Also, cannibalization is one product taking the sales of another product from the same company. Sales don't have to drop, they just have to be lower than what they would have been had the new product not been created.


Sales will be higher but aggregate profits will be lower. This has never been an Apple strategy. They have always chosen lower market share for higher margins.


----------



## buhhy

Spudd said:


> Higher than $300 would be nuts, since you can get the iPad 2 for $400.


Well, for another $100, you can get a new iPad, which bring little beyond the retina display and the slightly improved A5x chipset. That didn't stop people from buying new iPads in droves even though a similar but older product was available for $100 less. If Apple puts in the retina display on the 7" tablets, they will be hailed as amazing regardless of the iPad 2. Also, 7" is a different form factor than the iPad 2, and if a person prefers the smaller form factor, why would they get a 10" tablet?

I still see a $299 price point for a 16GB. A 20% markup seems like a reasonable expectation from Apple.



kcowan said:


> Sales will be higher but aggregate profits will be lower. This has never been an Apple strategy. They have always chosen lower market share for higher margins.


Right, which is why I'm interested by this move. I feel the biggest asset Jobs had was his disciplined no-compromise mindset. He wasn't afraid to shoot for the long-term at the expense of the short-term.

Though to be honest, the lower margin trend already started with the Macbook Airs price cuts to actually competitive and reasonable prices.


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## praire_guy

The new iPad also,has LTE, and the newest Bluetooth spec, so you can use some of the newer heart rate monitors. It's not just retina display, and a slightly better chip.


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## Lephturn

praire_guy said:


> The new iPad also,has LTE, and the newest Bluetooth spec, so you can use some of the newer heart rate monitors. It's not just retina display, and a slightly better chip.


I have the new iPad - what do you mean by heart rate monitors? I have an old Garmin 305 for running, but I'm not going to run with my iPad! I'm sure I am missing something here... Maybe you run with the monitor and then "synch" it to an iPad app?


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## andrewf

Many users get the wifi model, so LTE is moot. Bluetooth may or may not be useful, depending on the user. Average unsophisticated user probably won't be using bluetooth, in my experience.


----------



## brad

The one thing I've found bluetooth useful for with the iPad is for a wireless keyboard. That almost makes the iPad a laptop replacement for me, at less than 1/2 the weight of a lightweight laptop. I use the iPad without keyboard most the time, but if I have to work on a document or write a long email, I just pull out the keyboard -- it's pretty handy. Now that there's a full-featured MS Office emulator app for the iPad (which requires you to be online) I could actually do real work on the thing.


----------



## praire_guy

andrewf said:


> Many users get the wifi model, so LTE is moot. Bluetooth may or may not be useful, depending on the user. Average unsophisticated user probably won't be using bluetooth, in my experience.


LTE is not moot. Bluetooth's usefulness is not the issue. I was simply pointing out there was more to the new iPad than "just" retina display. 

Lepthurn, I was on Polar's web site looking at heart monitors. One of the chest straps was compatible with iphone4s, and new iPad only. 

I wondered why this was, and that's how I discovered the newest blue tooth spec, which btw uses way less power. This may be usefull to you Brad if you use the Bluetooth keyboard.


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## andrewf

LTE is moot if you buy the wifi model (which does not have LTE). I should have been clearer. It is moot _for them_.


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## Nick1357

brad said:


> The one thing I've found bluetooth useful for with the iPad is for a wireless keyboard. That almost makes the iPad a laptop replacement for me, at less than 1/2 the weight of a lightweight laptop. I use the iPad without keyboard most the time, but if I have to work on a document or write a long email, I just pull out the keyboard -- it's pretty handy. Now that there's a full-featured MS Office emulator app for the iPad (which requires you to be online) I could actually do real work on the thing.


Sounds like a good market for Microsoft's Surface tablet....


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## kcowan

Nick1357 said:


> Sounds like a good market for Microsoft's Surface tablet....


The keyboard jut gets in the way for much routine use on the iPad. It is like 90% no KB and then pull it out for the 10% power typing. The big touch screen KB is very effective for 90% of the action.


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## Nick1357

kcowan said:


> The keyboard jut gets in the way for much routine use on the iPad. It is like 90% no KB and then pull it out for the 10% power typing. The big touch screen KB is very effective for 90% of the action.


Just with Brad's post about using a Bluetooth keyboard as well as an emulator for ms office apps, it sounded like the exact market that Microsoft is going for. I thought the keyboard built in to the cover was a pretty cool idea, mind you one that could be easily copied. I am interested in seeing how Microsoft does with this. They were very aggressive with the Xbox, which you could argue is now the market leader in video game consoles.


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## brad

Nick1357 said:


> Just with Brad's post about using a Bluetooth keyboard as well as an emulator for ms office apps, it sounded like the exact market that Microsoft is going for.


Right, except that virtually every tablet-with-keyboard developed before the iPad was pretty much a failure. They get some use in corporations, but it's not an idea that has ever really caught on. The iPad is successful in part because it doesn't have a keyboard, which makes it simpler, lighter, and more portable. You can buy cases for the iPad that have a keyboard built into the cover, but I've never seen anyone use one.

My guess is that Microsoft's tablet will have about as much success in the market as the Zune did.

That said, Windows 8 is supposed to be dynamite on tablets and phones, so maybe a portion of the former Blackberry market will turn in this direction.


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## buhhy

brad said:


> Right, except that virtually every tablet-with-keyboard developed before the iPad was pretty much a failure. They get some use in corporations, but it's not an idea that has ever really caught on. The iPad is successful in part because it doesn't have a keyboard, which makes it simpler, lighter, and more portable. You can buy cases for the iPad that have a keyboard built into the cover, but I've never seen anyone use one.
> 
> My guess is that Microsoft's tablet will have about as much success in the market as the Zune did.
> 
> That said, Windows 8 is supposed to be dynamite on tablets and phones, so maybe a portion of the former Blackberry market will turn in this direction.


Have you seen the Surface? It has a smart-cover like cover, but is better than the smart-cover since it doubles as a touch keyboard, while adding no additional thickness and turning off when it is wrapped to the back. Tablets never really caught on before because Microsoft had WinXP tunnel-vision, and didn't develop an OS suited towards tablets. Zune failed mainly because of Microsoft's marketing/lack of marketing. The ZuneHD was a slick device, and had better sound quality than the iPod. However, Microsoft wasn't able to gain mind-share because Apple's brand was too ingrained with the PMP market.

We'll see how Microsoft handles itself. If the Surface Pro has a Wacom digitizer, consider me instantly sold. But Microsoft is also well-known for stumbling out of the gate, so the success of W8 and the Surface is still very much indeterminate.


----------



## brad

buhhy said:


> Have you seen the Surface?


Yeah, I've seen it and I'm still skeptical. On the other hand, I was skeptical about the iPad's chances for success when it came out too. "Who needs something like this? It's just an overgrown iPod." Then my sister bought one and I spent 10 minutes playing with it and had to have one. I doubt the Surface will provide that same visceral reaction but you never know.


----------



## buhhy

brad said:


> Yeah, I've seen it and I'm still skeptical. On the other hand, I was skeptical about the iPad's chances for success when it came out too. "Who needs something like this? It's just an overgrown iPod." Then my sister bought one and I spent 10 minutes playing with it and had to have one. I doubt the Surface will provide that same visceral reaction but you never know.


Yup, Apple is good at making flashy good looking tech gadgets people want. Anyways, the adoption of technology is difficult to gauge, and impossible to predict. I think the best call here is just "we'll see".


----------



## brad

buhhy said:


> Yup, Apple is good at making flashy good looking tech gadgets people want.


For me, it had nothing to do with what it looked like -- it's all about the user experience and all the things I could do with it. Until Windows 8, I don't think I would have believed Microsoft could come close to anything like that; they're kind of the anti-user-experience company as I am reminded every day when I use XP and Windows 7. But while I haven't tried Windows 8 yet myself, all the reviews I've read are absolutely glowing. So who knows, they could be a contender. But yeah, we'll wait and see.


----------



## ddkay

rumour.. iPhone 6 to launch August 7


----------



## Nick1357

brad said:


> For me, it had nothing to do with what it looked like -- it's all about the user experience and all the things I could do with it. Until Windows 8, I don't think I would have believed Microsoft could come close to anything like that; they're kind of the anti-user-experience company as I am reminded every day when I use XP and Windows 7. But while I haven't tried Windows 8 yet myself, all the reviews I've read are absolutely glowing. So who knows, they could be a contender. But yeah, we'll wait and see.


I am of the same mindset myself as far as the wait and see approach goes. However, I will say that as someone who does not have an iPad and had no major interest in one, I am somewhat interested by the MS Surface. If they can get the user interface right, and if it can tap into the variety of games, programs, online communities, etc that exist on/for the windows platform then I think it could potentially do very well. There certainly is a pc crowd that doesn't get turned on by apple products. Also, it is supposed to have some sort of integration with the new xbox console which could be a potentially large market. I am not an early adopter though, so I will wait and see how it all pans out.


----------



## andrewf

Skipping iPhone 5?


----------



## Barwelle

Yah... the new one is sooo much more advanced, they didn't bother with '5'.


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## GOB

It will be the sixth generation iPhone, so iPhone 5 doesn't really work. I'm pretty sure they will just call it "the new iPhone" just as they did with the iPad. At a certain point the numbering system just gets silly. You don't see Apple selling Macbook Pro 12s or iMac 13s.

I don't buy the August 7 rumour, it seems too soon. It would be great for the stock if it happens though, and while it would shorten the lifespan of the 4S it would eat into sales of top Android phones such as the SGSIII for people who can't wait long.


----------



## GOB

Earnings are out today after hours. Estimates are all over the place both high and low. This is a tough one to call but here are my thoughts:

- Close to half of Verizon smartphones sold were iPhones
- 3/4 of AT&T smartphones sold were iPhones, despite heavy joint advertising for Lumia and Android phones
- China experienced >100% growth in 3G subscribers, and the only network that declined was the one that doesn't offer the iPhone
- iPad sales are likely going to be through the roof (>20 million)
- Mac sales will show traditional sequential growth, perhaps slightly better, boosted by the new retina MBP
- Margins will show no significant decline and if so will be due to currency fluctuations 

I think it will be another phenomenal quarter. I'm very tempted to buy some calls but I'm goin to stay smart and stick to my long term strategy with safe income plays on the side. Wouldn't be surprised to see $650+ after the numbers are out. If the stock drops I'll look to add some April 2013 an Jan 2014 LEAPS on the cheap an perhaps some spreads.


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## kcowan

Yes I think the Mac will come through this quarter due to the retina display. This should make up for the loss in traditional school sales that happen this quarter. That should make a big hit to profit.


----------



## ddkay

Artists keep releasing "concept" renderings of the new iPhone that look so convincing, then you find out it's fake. I wish they would stop hyping and getting people's hopes up. I played with the SGSIII, I was impressed by the front/rear cameras they used, finally there is 1 Android phone that will take decent photos. However the build quality and materials are the worst possible. Why not spend a few extra bucks for aluminum casing? The home button was flimsy and felt like cheapest button I ever pushed. Really disappointed by Samsung on this one. All Sammy stuff is plastic though. They managed to sell 10 million units in 2 months. But I wouldn't buy one. If I had to upgrade again today I would just wait for the new iPhone. Hopefully the August 7 launch date is true.


----------



## AnimeEd

Here are some photos of a "iPhone 5" hardware. 
http://www.theverge.com/2012/7/23/3177117/iphone-5-19-pin-dock-connector

I am an avid cell phone follower. I am currently using a Galaxy Nexus with Jelly Bean. When I compare it to my wife's iPhone, the iPhone feels very dated. The reason why Samsung doesn't use aluminium (other than the fact that it might make more people say they are copying Apple) is that it makes the phone much heavier. The iPhone 4S weights 140g, the Galaxy Nexus, 135g, and the GSIII is at 133g. Now consider the fact that the iPhone has a tiny 3.5" screen, the Nexus has a 4.65", and the GSIII has a 4.8". Using an iPhone is "painful" after using one of the bigger screen Android phones. I really think that Apple is shooting itself in the foot if it doesn't come up with a bigger screen for their next phone.


----------



## brad

kcowan said:


> This should make up for the loss in traditional school sales that happen this quarter. That should make a big hit to profit.


I'm not so sure Apple won't pull something out in the next few weeks that appeals to schools. Yes, there was the recent refresh to the MacBook line, but the iMac and the Mac Mini are both due for a refresh about now. An iMac with a retina screen would probably be a big seller, perhaps even more so than the retina MacBook Pro.


----------



## GOB

AnimeEd said:


> Here are some photos of a "iPhone 5" hardware.
> http://www.theverge.com/2012/7/23/3177117/iphone-5-19-pin-dock-connector
> 
> I am an avid cell phone follower. I am currently using a Galaxy Nexus with Jelly Bean. When I compare it to my wife's iPhone, the iPhone feels very dated. The reason why Samsung doesn't use aluminium (other than the fact that it might make more people say they are copying Apple) is that it makes the phone much heavier. The iPhone 4S weights 140g, the Galaxy Nexus, 135g, and the GSIII is at 133g. Now consider the fact that the iPhone has a tiny 3.5" screen, the Nexus has a 4.65", and the GSIII has a 4.8". Using an iPhone is "painful" after using one of the bigger screen Android phones. I really think that Apple is shooting itself in the foot if it doesn't come up with a bigger screen for their next phone.


No customer who wants quality and longevity is going to use a plastic phone. There's no excuse for Samsung to use cheap plastic on such an expensive "high-quality" device. Perhaps they should stop using a large screen as their only unique selling point and actually innovate some better hardware solutions instead of ripping off Apple, slapping a plastic cover on it and touting a large screen that is too big to be properly used with one hand. Perhaps that is why Apple has stuck with 3.5" until they can optimize the weight for a larger device. 

It's two different mindsets but customers who experience both generally tend to stick with iPhone long term, despite a smaller screen. What does that tell you? Quality wins. Just look at the recent data out of Verizon and AT&T and the resale value of Apple products. There is something to be said for a solidly built product.

I find the opposite - using a massive screen is painful as I always have to have two hands free. Probably 75% of the time I use my phone it's with a single hand. Would I like a 4" screen on the next iPhone? Sure - but only if the dimensions remain similar and I can still fully use it with one hand.


----------



## GOB

Oops...I was wrong. Onto plan B...


----------



## Homerhomer

Wow, that's a huge miss, I am actually suprised it's down only 4.7% as of now, I gather many see it as buying opportunity.


----------



## AnimeEd

GOB said:


> No customer who wants quality and longevity is going to use a plastic phone. There's no excuse for Samsung to use cheap plastic on such an expensive "high-quality" device. Perhaps they should stop using a large screen as their only unique selling point and actually innovate some better hardware solutions instead of ripping off Apple, slapping a plastic cover on it and touting a large screen that is too big to be properly used with one hand. Perhaps that is why Apple has stuck with 3.5" until they can optimize the weight for a larger device.


Material preference can be quite objective, so I will just leave it at that. However there is much more to an Android phone than just the bigger screen. Here some perks just off the top of my head:
-one-touch sharing menu can share media with your social network, through email, using Whatsapp, to your cloud storage, etcs using the same interface
-widget support allows for personal customization of your smartphone screen
-high integration into Google services such as Gmail, Google+, Google Drive, Google Maps, etc
-piracy without jailbreaking



GOB said:


> It's two different mindsets but customers who experience both generally tend to stick with iPhone long term, despite a smaller screen. What does that tell you? Quality wins. Just look at the recent data out of Verizon and AT&T and the resale value of Apple products. There is something to be said for a solidly built product.


There is absolutely no denying that the iPhone market-share has solid. However, I would argue that those market-shares are due to a "solid build" product. I am assuming you are talking about the hardware design here. Using glass on both sides of the phone is a critical design flaw in my book. Let me ask you a question, can you think of any reason why Apple would design the Bumper for the iPhone? The Bumper is a product which totally does not fit Apple's usual design principals. Why would anyone want to hide the 'high-quality' aluminum housing from view?



GOB said:


> I find the opposite - using a massive screen is painful as I always have to have two hands free. Probably 75% of the time I use my phone it's with a single hand. Would I like a 4" screen on the next iPhone? Sure - but only if the dimensions remain similar and I can still fully use it with one hand.


I used to have a 4" Galaxy S. I think that the 4" is the perfect size. It allows my thumb to reach to all corners of the screen without too much drama. 

Going back to the smartphone race though, GOB, I am certainly not saying that Samsung will take the crown away from Apple. There are enough people who buys into Apple's marketing regardless of what their next iPhone looks like. However, there is also a significant portion of users whom Apple is not catering to and that is missed opportunity.


----------



## ddkay

Yup.. buying opp. iPhone 5 next quarter.


----------



## GOB

I definitely did not expect such (relatively) low numbers. Fortunately the stock is valued so low that there not that much downside room. Times like these are when stuff like Apple's $110B cash balance come in handy. 

Look for some cheap LEAPs coming up.


----------



## blin10

you are just biased to iphone, s3 worse build quality? common now, it's way lighter then a brick iphone and it has a much larger screen.. my gf has iphone, and after s3 it feels like an ancient device



ddkay said:


> Artists keep releasing "concept" renderings of the new iPhone that look so convincing, then you find out it's fake. I wish they would stop hyping and getting people's hopes up. I played with the SGSIII, I was impressed by the front/rear cameras they used, finally there is 1 Android phone that will take decent photos. However the build quality and materials are the worst possible. Why not spend a few extra bucks for aluminum casing? The home button was flimsy and felt like cheapest button I ever pushed. Really disappointed by Samsung on this one. All Sammy stuff is plastic though. They managed to sell 10 million units in 2 months. But I wouldn't buy one. If I had to upgrade again today I would just wait for the new iPhone. Hopefully the August 7 launch date is true.


----------



## Asterix

GOB said:


> I definitely did not expect such (relatively) low numbers. Fortunately the stock is valued so low that there not that much downside room. Times like these are when stuff like Apple's $110B cash balance come in handy.
> 
> Look for some cheap LEAPs coming up.


Is now a good time to buy shares if one is not comfortable using LEAPS, or might it drop a bit lower? I don't know much about LEAPS.... time for some more reading!


----------



## ddkay

I don't own either so I can't be biased  If I had $700 to blow tonight I'm just saying I wouldn't & would wait a few months to see what Apple brings to the table. GSIII specs are nice and it runs great, but the plastic and buttons felt too cheap to justify the price. They could have at least used rubberized coating on the edges of the battery cover for grip or something. And if they made the shell with anodized aluminum it would feel amazing to hold and fingerprints wouldn't show like a mirror. The GSIII pebble blue model is painted like "brushed steel", Samsung should have just used brushed steel. No one is going to notice an extra 15 grams.


----------



## blin10

different strokes for different folks .. if they've done exactly what you said there would be another ddkay2 saying it sucks they should of done it another way... i do not find anything cheap on it, pebble blue is amazing color and button is perfect, it blows any apple out of the water, probably even iphone 5 will not challenge it if they'll keep tiny screen... only thing apple owns Samsung in is updates, Samsung is terrible with OS updates


----------



## GOB

blin10 said:


> you are just biased to iphone, s3 worse build quality? common now, it's way lighter then a brick iphone and it has a much larger screen.. my gf has iphone, and after s3 it feels like an ancient device


...what? How are weight and screen size related to build quality? Come back when you have a sensible argument.


----------



## GOB

Asterix said:


> Is now a good time to buy shares if one is not comfortable using LEAPS, or might it drop a bit lower? I don't know much about LEAPS.... time for some more reading!


It depends on your timeframe and your goals. If you are thinking long term now is a great valuation to buy at. However, guidance was poor for next quarter and I'm not expecting anything great over the next three months. There might be a lower price to get in at. You want to be in before Jan 2013 earnings though. The dividend is also payable to shareholders as of Aug 13 if that is a consideration for you. It may serve to keep price supported somewhat.


----------



## blin10

*OB said:


> ...what? How are weight and screen size related to build quality? Come back when you have a sensible argument.


it has a bigger screen and lighter that's a good build quality.. Quality can mean many things so you come back with a better comment


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## andrewf

Build quality refers to fit and finish, durability and reliability, not particular features.


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## GOB

blin10 said:


> it has a bigger screen and lighter that's a good build quality.. Quality can mean many things so you come back with a better comment


Hahahaha...I give up.


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## blin10

andrewf said:


> Build quality refers to fit and finish, durability and reliability, not particular features.


http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/quality?s=t

"9. having or showing excellence or superiority: a quality product" ... bigger screen and lighter weight is superiority
also from Computing Dictionary "The totality of features and characteristics of a product or service that bear on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs." ... man my English is a second language and I need to teach you guys


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## GOB

Buddy...you're defining quality, not build quality. Their definitions are not interchangeable. I respect the fact that English is your second language, but stop the ego trip because you're wrong. You're not teaching me anything except the brilliance of the old saying "it is better to be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt." 

What would your reaction be if I started learning your language and tried to teach you the intricacies of it with only a basic understanding?


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## blin10

ego trip? you pick on my sentence telling me some bs perfectly knowing what I was saying but no, you need to make a smart *** remark...


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## ddkay

Look what I started


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## GOB

blin10 said:


> ego trip? you pick on my sentence telling me some bs perfectly knowing what I was saying but no, you need to make a smart *** remark...


It's too late to start playing the victim. Both Andrew and myself informed you that your interpretation of build quality was incorrect, yet you brought up an irrelevant definition and proclaimed to be teaching us proper English as a non-native speaker. That is an ego trip. 

I get my defenses up when I'm attacked with no merit.


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## indexxx

blin10 said:


> it has a bigger screen and lighter that's a good build quality.. Quality can mean many things so you come back with a better comment


My 2/5 of a nickel... bigger screen and lighter does NOT have anything to do with build quality. I could put together a piece of crap in my basement that is designed to fall apart in a week, but hey, it's light and has a big screen! See? You're describing features, not quality.


----------



## blin10

GOB said:


> It's too late to start playing the victim. Both Andrew and myself informed you that your interpretation of build quality was incorrect, yet you brought up an irrelevant definition and proclaimed to be teaching us proper English as a non-native speaker. That is an ego trip.
> 
> *I get my defenses up when I'm attacked with no merit*.


so don't attack first and you won't get attacked back


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## indexxx

I would humbly like to thank Apple for buying AuthenTec today and boosting my shares by over 66%. 

Amen.


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## AnimeEd

indexxx said:


> I would humbly like to thank Apple for buying AuthenTec today and boosting my shares by over 66%.
> 
> Amen.


Congrats on the gain!


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## indexxx

AnimeEd said:


> Congrats on the gain!


Thx Ani!!


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## kcowan

Apple by the numbers:








The wait for iPhone 5 seems to be the major influence on the quarters numbers. Samsung shipped twice as many smartphones in the quarter.


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## PMREdmonton

My ongoing big worry for Apple is commoditization of smart phones - Google is driving this strategy with Android and they a lot of traction everywhere but the USA. The biggest reason for this discrepancy is the tendency of major telcoms in the US to subsidize the purchase of the devices and then try to make it up on the subscription plans. I know the carriers have been itching for someone to come along and knock the iphone off its perch so that they can become more profitable and not have to pay upfront so much for the hardware. If they ever change their tune it would effect Apple's profitability.

I think Apple is still a good buy right now as the commoditization has not yet started. However, in the last iteration of the smartphone the Galaxy S3 is now a superior product to the Iphone 4S based on my experience of using both. I fully expect Google's Motorola to produce a device that equals the current Iphone. I am not optimistic of Apple's ability to continue to stay ahead of the pack with their visionary in the grave. With each iteration of the devices the competition closes the gap.


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## AnimeEd

Hey guys, there's a high chance that these are photos of the next iPhone
http://www.theverge.com/2012/7/29/3200057/iphone-5-fully-assembled-rumor-pictures


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## brad

My feeling is that Apple's recent period of growth is an anomaly and the company will eventually settle back into the role it has mostly played throughout its history: a leader in technology and design, but a high-end niche player in all of its markets. Being a high-end niche player in markets as large as personal computers, tablets, and phones can still be hugely profitable, but investors who focus only on market share are likely to start jumping ship.


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## AnimeEd

brad said:


> My feeling is that Apple's recent period of growth is an anomaly and the company will eventually settle back into the role it has mostly played throughout its history: a leader in technology and design, but a high-end niche player in all of its markets. Being a high-end niche player in markets as large as personal computers, tablets, and phones can still be hugely profitable, but investors who focus only on market share are likely to start jumping ship.


Brad, I can't agree with that. Apple's past role had been in the background selling expensive computers that only a small amount of people pay attention to. Those people preach by Apple's hardware and software. One could argue that Apple's failure in the past has been that they were not able to get people to pay attention to their superior (to some eyes) products. Now that they are in the spotlight, people now understands that the Apple "premium" is worth it. Apple has remarkably positioned their niche product to become mainstream while still allowing its users to feel special and unique. That being said, they can't own the whole market because their growth is limited by the saturation of their own products. They will only grow if they expand towards other markets; something which they have done in the past although quite slowly. I can't see them toppling from their current position due to competition because they are selling more than a good product. They will only fall with a big misstep in their product lineup.


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## brad

AnimeEd said:


> Now that they are in the spotlight, people now understands that the Apple "premium" is worth it. Apple has remarkably positioned their niche product to become mainstream while still allowing its users to feel special and unique.


I don't know: apart from the millions of Apple-haters out there, there are the millions of people who buy on price alone, and the (far fewer) people who want an "open" system rather than being locked in with fewer choices. And there's the huge installed base of Windows PCs and all the inertia that goes along with it.


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## AnimeEd

brad said:


> I don't know: apart from the millions of Apple-haters out there, there are the millions of people who buy on price alone, and the (far fewer) people who want an "open" system rather than being locked in with fewer choices. And there's the huge installed base of Windows PCs and all the inertia that goes along with it.


Unfortunately, the majority of the customers out there do not understand what "open" means. Let say your aunt ask you to recommend a smartphone to her. What would you recommend? An iPhone or an Android phone? Now, let say she has problem with her new smartphone that you picked for her, who is she going to blame? If you picked the Android phone, she will probably blame you for not picking an iPhone because all of her friends raves about it how easy it is to use. She would have most likely blamed her own inert abilities if you had picked an iPhone. The majority of the phone buyers out there are like that.

The phone buyers that you have in mind are probably the people who have to save up money for their new cell phone. They probably build their own computers instead of buying a Dell or a HP. They also hack their Android phone with new ROMs. I'm pretty much describing myself here (and maybe you are similar?). The fact is that most phone buyers do not care about the openness of the ecosystem nor do they care about a hundred dollar more for their cell phone. They only really care about what their friends think about their new gadget.

As for the Apple-haters, they are the vocal minority. You hear from them so much because you are tech-savvy. Most people do not hang out on tech hardware forum nor Reddit. Referring to only those sources for the success of products is biased.


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## brad

That's why I said "(the much smaller number)" of people who want open systems.I don't think this is more than 2 or 3% of consumers. Most people don't care about openness. Why do people buy PCs instead of Macs? It's not because they have more choice when it comes to PC manufacturer. It's because PCs are cheaper and maybe because they are used to a PC because that's what they use at work (this is working in Apple's favour in reverse: as Apple makes OSX more and more like iOS, it's prompting people to buy Macs because the Mac works like their phone so they already know how to use it and it's familiar).

But I do think that if some competitor came out with a phone or a computer or whatever that was just as easy to use as an iPhone and had a cool design, but was cheaper, people would flock to it. There's only one Apple and there are hundreds of potential competitors. I have no doubt Apple will still be a highly successful and profitable company 20 years from now. But I am skeptical that they will be able to maintain a majority share for the long term in any of the markets they operate in.


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## GOB

I really don't understand why so many people act like commoditization is such a sure thing and is coming around the corner. How long have laptops existed? Why is Apple growing their share of the PC market and getting industry leading margins while doing so? Clearly their products offer advantages and are not commoditized. The smartphone industry as we know it about 5 years old. Commoditization shouldn't even be a thought right now when considering Apple as an investment. Their current product line will keep them growing for years to come. Of course not at the same ridiculous rate they have been, but still higher than almost other large/mega cap and much higher than has been factored into the share price.


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## kcowan

brad said:


> But I am skeptical that they will be able to maintain a majority share for the long term in any of the markets they operate in.


I think that is a wise position. What we need to to do is project how Apple will do when they return to their "profitable niche" role in each market segment and then speculate on what other niches they could carve out. That will be their future unless they change corporate direction. The Samsungs will come and go while Apple stays steadfast as the profit leader.


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## GOB

kcowan said:


> I think that is a wise position. What we need to to do is project how Apple will do when they return to their "profitable niche" role in each market segment and then speculate on what other niches they could carve out. That will be their future unless they change corporate direction. The Samsungs will come and go while Apple stays steadfast as the profit leader.


You are right in a sense but while they likely won't be market share leaders I bet they won't fall into the "niche" category either. Times have changed - this is now the most popular company in te world with products that everyone wants. Look at iPod - over a decade on the market and they have 60-70% of the mp3 player market. iPad has a similar market share right now.

Apple can get a much larger chunk of market share now because they price themselves competitively. Nobody can make a tablet as good as the iPad for the price. Same goes with their laptop line. Any iPhone competitor (like the SGSIII) is priced similarly. Apple's profits come from upper end pricing combined with their amazing operational efficiency and command of the supply chain. No other hardware company can even come close to this right now. 

Apple will be the profit leader, but they won't be niche. They'll continue to be the company the industry looks to for direction.


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> Apple will be the profit leader, but they won't be niche. They'll continue to be the company the industry looks to for direction.


I hate trying to predict the future because there's no point, but if I had to predict I'd say Apple will maintain its big share of the MP3 player market but will see erosion of its niche in the tablet and phone markets. It will remain a niche player in the computer market if only because the tough-to-shake perception (whether warranted or not) is that Apple's computers are high-end products at a premium price. I was just watching the many replies to a friend of mine who posted a question on Facebook about whether she should buy a Mac, and about 40% of the replies were along the lines of "those of us in the 98% can't afford Macs" and about 20% of them were along the lines of "Macs are toys, if you want to get work done use a PC." These are antiquated notions but they're surprisingly persistent and it's going to take a long time to shake them.


----------



## GOB

It will take a whole but the trends are undeniable. Mac growth has outpaced PC growth for the 25 quarters. Part of that is because of how small the existing base was to begin but it is also because Macs are clearly becoming more and more desirable. If you take Mac growth out of the PC market, I believe the industry is actually declining, or close to it. 

iPhones will struggle to keep a high market share because of the carrier model and the push for BOGO cheap Android devices. I see the tablet market performing similarly to the iPod market because Apple is on an even playing field with no external influences. The current tablet market is an iPad market and the only way competitors can devices is by going to cheap, profit less 7" tablets. If the iPad Mini is real, this may also be taken away from them. iPad is absolutely dominant even in enterprise and especially education, which points to the future


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> The current tablet market is an iPad market and the only way competitors can devices is by going to cheap, profit less 7" tablets. If the iPad Mini is real, this may also be taken away from them. iPad is absolutely dominant even in enterprise and especially education, which points to the future


Good point, especially about education -- the educational apps being written for the iPad are nothing short of amazing and there's little reason for developers to bother adapting them to other platforms at this point.


----------



## kcowan

I think the success of the iPad and iPhone have made corporate America enable their use in the corporate IT framework. This is enabling the Mac to become viable in that market. So we will see whether removing the MS hedgemony will help Apple to continue to grow.

It will also be worth watching to see whether the MS tablet can compete where many others have failed. Will there be a "blue screen of death" or equivalent for it.

(I watch my wife figure out her iPad. She is managing just fine. It is not without problems, but she gets around them.)


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## AnimeEd

The price is back to pre-earnings level in less than a week. I'm guessing it has a little to do with the Sept. 12 date that the media has been throwing around. People really love them.


----------



## AnimeEd

kcowan said:


> (I watch my wife figure out her iPad. She is managing just fine. It is not without problems, but she gets around them.)


One funny thing that I have been seeing is that Apple products can actually bridge users to other products due to their similar interface. Now that your wife knows how to operate an iPad, she can probably pickup an Android tablet and find herself around. IOS is a gateway drug.:chuncky:


----------



## GOB

AnimeEd said:


> The price is back to pre-earnings level in less than a week. I'm guessing it has a little to do with the Sept. 12 date that the media has been throwing around. People really love them.


Yep, and now that dividend funds are authorized to buy Apple, they're pouring for the August dividend. The post-earnings drop was phenomenal timing for them.


----------



## Lephturn

AnimeEd said:


> The price is back to pre-earnings level in less than a week. I'm guessing it has a little to do with the Sept. 12 date that the media has been throwing around. People really love them.


The big one is the article I saw earlier that they are considering a stock split so they can be included in the DOW. Dividend, plus stock split, plus addition to the only major index they are not already in would be three very nice catalysts. The DOW is price weighted so they would have to split to be included which I think is great for everybody.

Edit: Ah here it is: http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSBRE86U0TS20120731


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## GOB

I'm all for a split regardless if it has an effect on the price. It will allow me to play options much more easily.


----------



## m3s

AnimeEd said:


> The phone buyers that you have in mind are probably the people who have to save up money for their new cell phone. They probably build their own computers instead of buying a Dell or a HP. They also hack their Android phone with new ROMs. I'm pretty much describing myself here (and maybe you are similar?). The fact is that most phone buyers do not care about the openness of the ecosystem nor do they care about a hundred dollar more for their cell phone. They only really care about what their friends think about their new gadget.
> 
> As for the Apple-haters, they are the vocal minority. You hear from them so much because you are tech-savvy. Most people do not hang out on tech hardware forum nor Reddit. Referring to only those sources for the success of products is biased.


I don't know. The people in my circles don't tend to be the shallow types who buy Apple just because of what others think. Most of them aren't crazy tech fanatics but enjoy their Apple devices for their functionality, no different than when they first discovered PCs. I've reprogrammed old ECU's and newer traction controls, rewired circuit boards in cars and game consols, built/upgraded my own PCs, owned the original Palm Pilot and Black Berry and loathed Apple products all the way. The iPhone was the first one that appealed to me, and no Android competed yet at the time. I have nothing against Android, I just don't have any need to customize my own ROM anymore.

One Apple device is a gateway to many more. I cross-shopped Macbooks with PCs before I had an iPhone and found they were overpriced based on specs. Now that I use OS X and read about Windows 8 developments I can see the difference software makes to the real world experience. Specs don't mean much if the software bogs them down over time, and Macs can now be found for a reasonable price as well. I've been setting up home networks from early Windows gaming/file sharing to recent media servers, and I've never seen anything like OS X.. Just sign in with your apple ID and it all works together, smooth and instantly. I can still point out some glitches, but it's far ahead of Windows in responsiveness and user interface.

Last time I was in the States there were so many MacBooks in the University I thought it was some kind of convention at first. That kind of inertia with the youth will carry a lot of sales forward imo. Windows 8 sounds great, but I doubt such a big change will be so refined the first try and many of the changes concedes they are playing catch up. I'm pretty open minded with Android and the appeal of open source, but I think a lot of the fanatics are not with Apple and its appeal to the average user. There's a good market for both of them imo. I'm not brave enough to invest in Apple, but I invest in tech used but all mobile devices.


----------



## GOB

All-time high! It's been a long time coming. Next year is going to be absolutely huge for this company.


----------



## Argonaut

GOB said:


> I'm all for a split regardless if it has an effect on the price. It will allow me to play options much more easily.


I would not welcome a split for the opposite reason. Higher share price = higher option premium. If it splits I have to do more contracts, and more contracts means more commission too.


----------



## GOB

Argonaut said:


> I would not welcome a split for the opposite reason. Higher share price = higher option premium. If it splits I have to do more contracts, and more contracts means more commission too.


My commissions are only about $0.60-$1.30 so I would happily pay a dollar or two extra here and there for the greatly increased flexibility that a split would offer me.


----------



## kcowan

Good days for Apple shareholders today. Set a record as the highest market cap ever surpassing MS in 1999. With a forward PE under 14 compared to the MS forward PE of over 60!


----------



## GOB

I didn't know how or when it would happen, but I was as close to 100% as one could be that this day would come. I'm just as sure we will see a $1 trillion market cap in the not too distant future. 

As I was saying, mid-$500s a few months ago was really a no-brainer and an amazing opportunity to get into the stock.


----------



## donald

I bought in just above mid-500s(580,second position).....a few pages back in this thread was my "entry" post.I've bought twice now and sold gains on my first buy(mid 300s)Almost a pure double-10k invested and year to date a profit of 10k......this almost feels like it's 2 good to be true!debating yet again on my intial(1st position) shares if i should sell my gains.(im leaving my original investment and 2nd position,though...for now)Nice div now 2.


----------



## GOB

Nothing wrong with taking profits, but if you can't find a better alternative right now and are in it for the long term, staying in will pay off.


----------



## donald

I know what your saying!I bought sbux from profits and got tagged last time(though i still like it)Hard to go against aapl!I like the feel of house money though.This whole market has been flying lately(i feel like this is the week to take gains)


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> Nothing wrong with taking profits, but *if you can't find a better alternative right now and are in it for the long term, staying in will pay off.*


++++1.

As Pat Dorsey said in his book: *"Smart Selling Means Better Returns"* [this can be elsewhere, or with same stock with better timing]. 

I never sell without a firm plan of what to do with the returned capital + profits; often times have dual investing plans with the funds.

I have regretted not having taken profits on a few stocks of mine, but AAPL is not one of them; indeed it was a no-brainer to have held and added upon significant downturns, ie: Dec. 2011 [52 week low]/May/2012.

- Did AAPL change for the worse? - The exact opposite.
- Was there a better place for my money? - Yes, with more volatile stocks, but for shorter periods and none as fool-proof as AAPL.
- Did stock become too large for my portfolio? - I wish. :rolleyes2:

The one stock I deeply regret having taken profits on in the tech sector, is MLNX [bought 2.5 years ago & sold a portion earlier this year after the stock took off big time]. I regret it not so much because it has done so incredibly well since I sold, but because I went against what my brain was telling me to do. This stock performed better than AAPL [for me] & nearly doubled since I sold. Will I able be able to get it back at a reasonable price? Unlikely. :stupid:

Congrats to all AAPL shareholders! :encouragement:


----------



## indexxx

Just for the sake of discussion, what opinions are there on the outcome of the Apple/Samsung feud? How might the verdict impact Apple's SP?


----------



## AnimeEd

indexxx said:


> Just for the sake of discussion, what opinions are there on the outcome of the Apple/Samsung feud? How might the verdict impact Apple's SP?


I don't think it will affect its bottom line. They will gain more in PR if they win. Apple is asking for 2.5 Billion in damage. Assuming they win all of the 2.5B (not likely), that only represent a per share value of $2.64. For 2012 Q2, Apple has 51.9B in current assets.


----------



## indexxx

AnimeEd said:


> I don't think it will affect its bottom line. They will gain more in PR if they win. Apple is asking for 2.5 Billion in damage. Assuming they win all of the 2.5B (not likely), that only represent a per share value of $2.64. For 2012 Q2, Apple has 51.9B in current assets.


I was thinking of what might happen should Samsung get banned from selling their phones in the US.


----------



## andrewf

I really don't think Apple has a particularly strong case, from the evidence I have seen. Apple is not the first company to employ the interface consisting of a grid of icons. It's an obvious interface that results from the technological advances at the time (larger touch displays at reasonable cost + battery processor advances) that had been developed by other firms before Apple (though none as successfully as Apple, which is a familiar refrain). Further, claiming that rounded rectangles in an interface might confuse customers into believing that Samsung devices are really Apple devices is not really credible.

But still, it's a jury trial and from what I understand Samsung did not argue their case as well as they might have, so they may yet lose.


----------



## AnimeEd

indexxx said:


> I was thinking of what might happen should Samsung get banned from selling their phones in the US.


Apple is not demanding that though (at least not in this lawsuit). They are asking for lost earnings.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I just don't know how a jury is supposed to understand such a complex case.

"Apple’s $32 million expense in the one Motorola Mobility dispute equals less than six hours of iPhone sales."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...tles-create-lawyer-boon-at-1-200-an-hour.html


----------



## m3s

Germany seems to be fairly advanced and tough on copyright infringements. If you download illegally here you get a letter. No youtube video will play that mimics copyright material. Samsung Galaxy Tablets were banned from the start in Germany for design patents, so Samsung just made some quick adjustments and reintroduced them again.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> I really don't think Apple has a particularly strong case, from the evidence I have seen. Apple is not the first company to employ the interface consisting of a grid of icons. It's an obvious interface that results from the technological advances at the time (larger touch displays at reasonable cost + battery processor advances) that had been developed by other firms before Apple (though none as successfully as Apple, which is a familiar refrain). Further, claiming that rounded rectangles in an interface might confuse customers into believing that Samsung devices are really Apple devices is not really credible.
> 
> But still, it's a jury trial and from what I understand Samsung did not argue their case as well as they might have, so they may yet lose.


Apple has an extremely strong case, and there is absolutely no doubt to anyone with common sense that Samsung ripped them off. That being said I don't have confidence in the jury to reach the correct decision. 

I do agree that Apple doesn't (or shouldn't) own the rights to creating a device with a flat rectangular screen and round edges. However, what they are suing for is violation of trade dress. Look up the term and how it applies in the law. There is no doubt Samsung violated trade dress in their earlier Galaxy phones and tablets. The SGSIII is fine in my opinion, but the Galaxy S was almost an exact replica intentionally designed to look almost exactly like an iPhone. This goes even beyond phones and tablets - Samsung is copying literally anything that they can. It's pathetic. Apple has the right to defend their trade dress, which is extremely valuable due to their well-deserved brand image.

Consumers did get confused. Not everyone follows the industry, and to many people something that looks like an iPhone logically would perform like one, too. There is also Samsung's internal documents about return rates for their Galaxy tab. One of the top reasons? People thought it was an iPad and returned it when they realized their mistake. Enough evidence of customer confusion, besides the obvious fact that they look almost identical? I believe so. 

Look at this and tell me with a straight face that trade dress has not been violated, and Samsung was not trying to copy Apple. And why else would they copy if not to mislead customers?




























The "obvious interface" excuse is flawed. Why was the iPhone and iPad so revolutionary if was simply an obvious iteration of the existing smartphones of 2007? And if the iPad was so obvious after the iPhone, why did every other player in the industry wait 3 years for Apple to come out with it first? Are they that incompetent? Maybe they are...

Also, have you seen this? Pretty self-explanatory. A study of hundreds of features of the iPhone (some patented, some not) and instructions to implement them into Samsung devices. This goes far, far beyond standard competitive industry analysis. 

Check it out: http://www.scribd.com/doc/102317767/Samsung-Relative-Evaluation-Report-on-S1-iPhone

What makes it more ridiculous are Samsung's assertions of Apple's violations. They are suing Apple for violating a patent that is found inside an Intel chip. Samsung and Intel have a cross-licensing agreement, and Intel sells the chip to Apple (as they do to anyone else who wants it). Is Apple in violation of this patent? By that logic, anyone owning an iPhone is also in violation. An absolutely stupid argument and it disgusts me that it hasn't been thrown out. If that's the best that Samsung can come up with, we know who the innovator is and who the copycat is, even if both had completely blank reputations.

There are plenty of ways to design smartphones and tablets with flat screens and round edges, and not make it look like an Apple product. Many already exist in the marketplace. There are endless numbers of ways to design and arrange icons that don't copy how Apple did it. To say otherwise demonstrates a pathetic lack of imagination.


----------



## ddkay

I don't own any Samsung stuff except a monitor, but I can't buy any of it anymore just out of principal, the knock off attempts are ridiculous. I'd rather buy a Sony first, their designs try to be unique, Sony also has their hands on hardware whereas most companies like HTC are just assemblers.


----------



## GOB

Samsung's entire business model on the hardware side is being a quick copier. Shameless, and when patent infringement is involved, illegal.


----------



## sam

I feel like an idiot for selling my 300 shares @ 580


----------



## andrewf

In Samsung's defence, there is some evidence that Samsung was drawing on prior art. Samsung has concept designs similar to what it released in their devices before iPhone was even announced. I don't think Apple's case is a slam dunk.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...t-didnt-copy-the-iphone-and-ipad-in-pictures/


The rounded rectangles I was referring to are of the icons in the interface. Apple's claim is that their patent covers things like rounded icons, using various colours in icons, and a variety of icon designs. I dunno what is not particularly obvious about any of that once you have inexpensive, high resolution colour screens + better battery performance. Apple doesn't claim that a grid of icons is covered by patent, which is good, since they didn't develop the concept.


----------



## ddkay

Chromebox takes the cake for being a blatant copy of mac mini.

Stuff like launch tiles and form factor (touch bar phone/tablets) are legitimately debatable.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> In Samsung's defence, there is some evidence that Samsung was drawing on prior art. Samsung has concept designs similar to what it released in their devices before iPhone was even announced. I don't think Apple's case is a slam dunk.
> 
> http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...t-didnt-copy-the-iphone-and-ipad-in-pictures/
> 
> 
> The rounded rectangles I was referring to are of the icons in the interface. Apple's claim is that their patent covers things like rounded icons, using various colours in icons, and a variety of icon designs. I dunno what is not particularly obvious about any of that once you have inexpensive, high resolution colour screens + better battery performance. Apple doesn't claim that a grid of icons is covered by patent, which is good, since they didn't develop the concept.


I thought you had read about this case - did you see the slides I linked to?

You might want to ask Samsung how they could miss out on such an obvious thing (and 125 others):










This is a classic argument, and one that makes no sense. Looking at Samsung's study of things to copy from the iPhone, most people would say that everything the iPhone has is "obvious". However, if you accept that as the truth, the question that then needs to be asked is why couldn't Samsung put in those obvious things on their own? Perhaps it isn't so easy and obvious after all, even if the technology is available? A crazy thought, I know...:rolleyes2:

The answer is that things only become obvious once somebody has figured it out and takes the time to make it happen. Ever seen a cool invention on Dragon's Den and think to yourself "That was so obvious and simple, why didn't I think of it and make millions?!" Does the fact that it was obvious in hindsight allow you to copy and infringe on any patents the inventor may hold? The answer is obviously no. People accuse Apple of patenting everything and anything. Sadly, they have to because of entities like Samsung - and even that isn't likely to work. All Apple wants to do is protect its trade dress, and its utility patents. Is that too much to ask? Is that trying to eliminate competition in the courtroom? I don't see anything wrong with protecting intellectual property that is the result of brilliant minds, billions of dollars, and years of top secret R&D work. But maybe I'm just old-fashioned.

The hardest thing to design is simplicity and a good UI. Clearly you don't understand this - don't worry, you aren't the only one. I fear many of jury share your thoughts.


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## AnimeEd

Both Samsung and Apple ruled to have infringed on eachother's patents in Korean.

Apple has to stop selling iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4, iPad 1, and iPad 2
Samsung has to stop selling the Galaxy SII, the Galaxy Nexus, and the Galaxy Tab 10.1

http://www.theverge.com/2012/8/23/3264434/apple-samsung-korea-lawsuit-verdict-announcement


----------



## brad

sam said:


> I feel like an idiot for selling my 300 shares @ 580


I feel like an idiot for not listening to a friend who advised me to buy some shares when Apple went public in late 1980 at $22. ;-)


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## indexxx

brad said:


> I feel like an idiot for not listening to a friend who advised me to buy some shares when Apple went public in late 1980 at $22. ;-)


I recently started reading Cody Willard's blog on Marketwatch- he got in at $7. D'oh!!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Don't torture yourselves people, but rather, try to find the next startup/value investment!


----------



## andrewf

AnimeEd said:


> Both Samsung and Apple ruled to have infringed on eachother's patents in Korean.
> 
> Apple has to stop selling iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4, iPad 1, and iPad 2
> Samsung has to stop selling the Galaxy SII, the Galaxy Nexus, and the Galaxy Tab 10.1
> 
> http://www.theverge.com/2012/8/23/3264434/apple-samsung-korea-lawsuit-verdict-announcement


The only winners in this farce are the patent lawyers.


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## Toronto.gal

I posted that link yesterday for a reason Andrew.

Don't you know they are badly needed at $1,200 an hour 'to help jurors and judges understand technology and arcane rules of law'? :calm:


----------



## ddkay

http://www.androidpolice.com/2012/0...iew-an-embarrassing-lazy-arrogant-money-grab/

Seriously what is this garbage? Samsung can't even convince Android fanboys to buy their product. The casing is basically a copy of the GSIII. 


> The build quality. Terrible even by Samsung's low standards. The back is actually squishy, and you can feel it deform while holding it. It's noisy too, the plastic creaks, groans, and grinds when you pick it up. Regular, strong plastic would still be unacceptable when everyone else uses aluminum, but this... this is insulting for a $500 tablet.


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## GOB

Apple wins! Damages: A billion and change. Justice has been partially served. I'm actually in shock.


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## indexxx

GOB said:


> Apple wins! Damages: A billion and change. Justice has been partially served. I'm actually in shock.


Go go gadget AAPL!!! I'm liking the climb to $675 after hours.


----------



## m3s

ddkay said:


> I don't own any Samsung stuff except a monitor, but I can't buy any of it anymore just out of principal, the knock off attempts are ridiculous. I'd rather buy a Sony first, their designs try to be unique, Sony also has their hands on hardware whereas most companies like HTC are just assemblers.


I'm a fan of Sony hardware but their software has sadly fallen far far behind. It's worth noting both Sony and Apple actually use many Samsung parts though, especially their screens, micro chips and memory. I think even iPads are Samsung screens, Sony TVs are actually Samsung screens etc. Retina display is Apple right? Made by Samsung though. iPhone 4s is something like 1/4 Samsung hardware..


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## ddkay

Apple does innovate in other areas, mostly materials and form factors as of late (IMO iOS has been stagnant the last few years). The same underlying tech is available to every other OEM.

Displays - LG, Sharp, Japan Display (Sony, Hitachi, and Toshiba)
Glass - Corning
Memory - Toshiba, Micron, Hynix, Elpida
Image Sensors - Sony, Omnivision
Touch Controller - Atmel, Cypress Semiconductor
Gyroscope/GPS - STMicro
Modem - Qualcomm

Samsung has the manufacturing contract for A4's but it's designed by Apple and they could easily outsource to TSMC once the processes are more refined or build their own fab. Apple doesn't really need Samsung.

I just wish Samsung would stop building cheap garbage and giving Android a bad name. It actually wouldn't be so bad if they disappeared for awhile.

I agree about Sony's software, it isn't what it used to be. PSN is always getting hacked, but they deserved some of that too after the DRM rootkit scandal and going after Geohot. But they have the potential to prove they make quality products again. Samsung doesn't even try on their consumer products. The monitor I have is medical-grade so they didn't cheap out on it.


----------



## GOB

Anyone been to one of the new Apple Retail..I mean...Samsung Experience Stores lately?:biggrin:


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## indexxx

GOB said:


> Anyone been to one of the new Apple Retail..I mean...Samsung Experience Stores lately?:biggrin:


WTF- really? Man, that's just shameless. Wonder if Apple can sue for something like trade dress on a retail concept.


----------



## andrewf

ddkay said:


> http://www.androidpolice.com/2012/0...iew-an-embarrassing-lazy-arrogant-money-grab/
> 
> Seriously what is this garbage? Samsung can't even convince Android fanboys to buy their product. The casing is basically a copy of the GSIII.


From that link:



> More design from Samsung's Legal Department, just like the GSIII. Everything about this is made to scream "I am not an iPad." Apple claims "substantial black borders on all sides being roughly equal in width," so this thing has uneven, "Pearl Grey" borders. Apple suggested Samsung could make a non-infringing device with a "front surface that isn't entirely flat" and "thick frames rather than a thin rim around the front surface," so Samsung fitted the Note 10.1 with hideous, thick, plastic framing.


I guess the reviewer is upset because Samsung didn't make an iPad?


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## m3s

Check out the new Vizio laptops and desktops










Windows 8 sounds a lot like OS X as well


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> From that link:
> 
> 
> 
> I guess the reviewer is upset because Samsung didn't make an iPad?


The point is that Samsung is now trying to make their own stuff without copying, and it's absolute crap. It speaks to their lack of design ability, and is further proof that so much of their success has come off copying others.


----------



## kcowan

Here is an insightful article on Apple lawsuit win from Stan The Man:

Apple win will likely survive appeal


----------



## andrewf

I have to say, Samsung is not handling this well from a PR perspective.


----------



## JustAGuy

GOB said:


> further proof that so much of their success has come off copying others.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFeC25BM9E0


----------



## ddkay

OMG! Samsung finally released a phone that isn't made of plastic! It's beau-ti-ful. http://windowsteamblog.com/windows_...windows-phone-8-devices-coming-this-year.aspx


----------



## andrewf

Rounded rectangle! Back to the drawing board...


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## GOB

andrewf said:


> Rounded rectangle! Back to the drawing board...


Do all of us a favour and understand why Samsung lost. It was not because of a rectangle with rounded corners. The right decision was made, deal with it...



> Asked about Samsung's reaction to the verdict, in which it said it was "unfortunate that patent law allows the patenting of rectangles with rounded corners", Hogan responded that "we didn't look at any singular aspect" of the devices when considering Apple's "trade dress" complaints of physical similarity between the iPhone and iPad and various Samsung devices. "All of the claims and all of the limitations were taken in their entirety."
> 
> He said he had previously thought that "trade dress" should not be patentable – but that my "opinion toggled" [in favour] as he considered the evidence. "Putting the [Samsung] products side by side with the equivalent Apple products, it was clear to me and the other jurors that they were too close."


The rectangle and rounded corners is but one part of their overall trade dress description. Sure, it is obvious, just like it is obvious that Samsung was blatantly copying Apple's entire trade dress, right down to the cables and packaging.


----------



## GOB

JustAGuy said:


> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFeC25BM9E0


Do you understand the difference between invention and innovation? Apple is less of an inventor and more of an innovator. The fact that they build upon existing technologies/inventions and figure out how to tweak them, tie them to an amazing UI and make them useful to the mass market is their bread and butter. It's certainly no easy task, and one that nobody else seems to be able to do very well.



> Innovation is the creation of better or more effective products, processes, services, technologies, or ideas that are readily available to markets, governments, and society. Innovation differs from invention in that innovation refers to the use of a better and, as a result, novel idea or method, whereas invention refers more directly to the creation of the idea or method itself.


Innovation relies upon existing inventions; however, inventions are no good sitting in a lab doing nothing. Xerox PARC's mouse is a great example. Xerox invented this device but even the brilliant people who invented it had no idea what to do with it. It took Steve Jobs to have the vision to see it's use as a pointing device for PCs in the broad market, make the necessary modifications, and make it a reality. The rest is history. There is a tremendous amount of value in that step, which Apple naysayers happily ignore. By the way, Apple didn't "steal" this - they paid Xerox for their property. 

If your post is trying to equate Apple's innovative streak with Samsung's copying, you're either being ignorant or delusional.


----------



## andrewf

GOB--sorry, I should have added a smilie. It was a joke.


----------



## AnimeEd

Honestly I think there has been enough discussion on Samsung vs. Apple in this thread about Apple stock...


----------



## GOB

AnimeEd said:


> Honestly I think there has been enough discussion on Samsung vs. Apple in this thread about Apple stock...


Agreed - although Samsung's success, their reasons for success and the results of the latest case all potentially have a huge impact on AAPL, so it's not entirely off-topic.


----------



## kcowan

JustAGuy said:


> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFeC25BM9E0


Apple is a marketing company. This is why geeks get so incensed at their success. They think inventors should get rewarded.


----------



## kcowan

GOB said:


> Innovation relies upon existing inventions; however, inventions are no good sitting in a lab doing nothing. Xerox PARC's mouse is a great example. Xerox invented this device but even the brilliant people who invented it had no idea what to do with it. It took Steve Jobs to have the vision to see it's use as a pointing device for PCs in the broad market, make the necessary modifications, and make it a reality. The rest is history. There is a tremendous amount of value in that step, which Apple naysayers happily ignore. By the way, Apple didn't "steal" this - they paid Xerox for their property...


Xerox sued Apple in Canada in the 80s over the copying of their PARC innovations in Lisa. My neighbour, a patent lawyer, defended Apple and won. They chose Canada because they felt it would be cheaper than a US case. They did not realize that a California jury was the key to a win!


----------



## ddkay

HAHAHAHAA I lost it when he reverse pinched to make the screen bigger


----------



## killuminati

Announcement today. I feel like the stock usually goes down before and after the news.


----------



## Argonaut

Stock is up modestly, yet the actually announcement is a bit of a disappointment. The market does what it will.

As for Apple, I'm sure that they will sell lots of iPhone 5's. But the innovation isn't really there. Suing Samsung, and now coming out with a meek upgrade on their smartphone? Seems like the well is a bit dry. The Steve Jobs death effect may have taken a while to play out, but it's starting to show more now I think.


----------



## brad

I think Apple is focusing on evolutionary improvements to the iPhone: there are millions of users out there, and Apple knows better than anyone that you'll alienate your base if you change things too dramatically. They already learned that the hard way when they came out with OSX. 

It's not that the well is dry, it's that Apple hit the mark so well with the very first iPhone so there's not a whole lot they can do to improve its design and functionality. Cockroaches today look pretty much like cockroaches did millions of years ago, because they have a perfect design that works. Natural selection keeps cockroaches looking like cockroaches; there's no need for them to evolve into something else. I bet the iPhone of 2020 won't look dramatically different from the iPhone of 2012.

I actually thought today's announcement was pretty big and there's plenty of innovation within the confines of the desire to not rock the boat too much. As Tim Cook pointed out recently, Apple says no to great ideas every day: part of what makes them successful is that they've never gotten suckered into innovating for the sake of innovation; they innovate where there's a need for it.


----------



## ddkay

I don't know what else you can expect, the internals are up to date. It's basically a GS3 with better wifi and mobile radios. The only thing still missing is NFC and inductive charging.

Battery life is the biggest challenge today and no one has really addressed it yet. With inductive charging you can turn furniture into a phone charger. That could be the next big thing.

Also, rubberband electronics. :stupid:


----------



## GOB

I don't know what everyone was expecting. They tweaked a beautiful existing design instead of overhauling it, which was the right thing to do. They added LTE, made the phone 18% thinner, increased the screen size to support a 16:9 aspect ratio, kept the width the same to maintain easy one-handed use, added a wickedly fast chip all the while maintaining superb battery life. iOS 6 will pull it all together beautifully, though it will be available on many other iOS devices as well. Expecting a little much, maybe?

Any iteration of the iPhone is going to seem like a letdown when compared to the launches of the original iPhone and iPad. Those were unique events that marked the spawn of multibillion dollar industries. They will not happen every product launch, and it is ridiculous to expect it. The iPhone 5 will be the best phone on the market to most people, except those who have an aversion to anything Apple, or to those who honestly do prefer a larger screen despite the inconveniences they pose. In terms of performance, UI, build quality, integration, Apple stays well ahead of the pack. This will be a record breaking product launch. 

The new iPods are also great. This should boost sales a bit even though they are on the decline overall due to cannibalization. It's good to see Apple continuing to work at dominating a market, even if it has peaked and is becoming less and less important to their financial performance.

iPhone 5 launches on Sep.21 which gives about ten days of sales for the current quarter. It looks like an aggressive rollout with ample supply. This should be enough to exceed earnings projections, but probably won't be a huge blowout. Next quarter will be absolutely ridiculous. Invest accordingly. I would buy on any significant pullback, although issues like the impending QE3 announcement can throw everything haywire. If capital is an issue, get into some 2014/2015 LEAPs when the stock drops or goes into a lull and IV drops.


----------



## Lephturn

The tech press said the 4S was "just an update" and with nothing really new. How did it sell again? Oh right...

I was hoping for a bigger pull back. I want to position for the Jan. earnings release soon.


----------



## brad

Also keep in mind that, despite Apple's colourful claim that we're in a "post-PC world," plenty of people still buy desktop computers and Apple's desktop line will probably be refreshed soon. The last update of the iMac was in May 2011, the last update of the Mac Mini was in July 2011, and the last update of consequence to the Mac Pro was so long ago that nobody can even remember. Tim Cook has promised that Apple's working on a complete overhaul of the Mac Pro, but in the meantime I think we can expect to see new iMacs soon and possibly a new Mac Mini. I don't think we're done with new product rollouts for this year.


----------



## andrewf

I'm sure it will sell just fine. Phones are probably getting to the point where there won't be much improvement going forward aside from incremental ones.

The 4G support will make some people upgrade. Others will wait for the next refresh (no must-have new features unless you have unlimited data to go along with the 4g). People who want features on the cutting edge will have to go to other makers. Ie, NFC, inductive charging built in. It's hard to say that Apple has the technology lead any more. Google is also catching up from a system integration perspective. It will be interesting to see what Google comes up with on the hardware side as well. The Nexus 7 tablet is a pretty impressive device.


----------



## Sampson

andrewf said:


> I'm sure it will sell just fine. Phones are probably getting to the point where there won't be much improvement going forward aside from incremental ones.


Interesting position, but it doesn't have to be so.

Camera makers (some of them) continue to make some very significant innovations and new niche products have been created over the past few years. These always trickle into the main brands quickly.

I'll be curious to know if any phone makers will take risks with introducing ground breaking technologies. The market and consumers are much more focused on upgrading every cycle or every other cycle, so it may not be in the phone makers interest since consumers will probably buy incremental changes anyway.


----------



## AnimeEd

This is a bit anecdotal but 4 people have approached me and asked me which Galaxy phone to get because they were disappointed in the announcement.


----------



## andrewf

It's more of the same, so people who like Apple shouldn't be overly disappointed, except perhaps with the lack of support for NFC which several competitive devices offer. Those who are disappointed likely are so because this device doesn't surprise/delight like some previous devices (even 4S had Siri, which got a lot of mileage in pop culture).


----------



## AnimeEd

Seeing some nice gains these few days but they are most offset by the CAD/USD exchange rate :hopelessness:


----------



## ddkay

The loonie is only up 5% since the beginning of this year, S&P500 is up 17%, and Apple and BAC equity are up 71%

For Canadians investing in the US, everything is amazing and nobody is happy


----------



## GOB

Anyone still like GOOG over AAPL? GOOG, even after this run has yet to break their 2007 high.


----------



## andrewf

Reality vs perception:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdIWKytq_q4


----------



## andrewf

More patent insanity:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57509251-37/u.s-judge-htc-patents-likely-valid-in-apple-suit/

In other words, HTC might be able to get an injunction preventing the sale of iPhone 5 in the US.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Reality vs perception:
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdIWKytq_q4


Funny stuff. All it proves though is that there are many fools in this world - and they certainly aren't limited to Apple users.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> More patent insanity:
> 
> http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57509251-37/u.s-judge-htc-patents-likely-valid-in-apple-suit/
> 
> In other words, HTC might be able to get an injunction preventing the sale of iPhone 5 in the US.


If those patents are related to 4G, they are most likely standard essential patents, and must be licensed under fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory (FRAND) terms. This essentially means they can't charge Apple more than they charge anyone else for it. This is probably the reason Apple is unwilling to pay licensing - they're probably asking for something outrageous. If these are indeed FRAND patents (and I admit I am not sure) then all that will come of this is that Apple will pay a nominal fee that is in line with the rest of the licensees. Samsung is trying to do the same thing claiming they will immediately sue over LTE in iPhone 5 - I say good luck. Apple is more than willing to pay FRAND terms like anyone else. 4G is not owned by any single entity - there are tons of patents that go into making the standard, and most of them must be licensed under FRAND terms. Apple owns a bunch of 4G patents as well, but they would never pursue legal action over FRAND patents. Any company that does this is scared and playing PR games.

A real patent defense:



> “Apple Inc. Thursday won an injunction against Google Inc.’s Motorola unit over infringement of Apple’s ‘rubber band’ patent, in a ruling which bans the sale of Motorola products in Germany that infringe the patent,” Ursula Quass reports for MarketWatch.
> 
> “The court, in the southern German city of Munich, didn’t specify how much Motorola will have to pay Apple in damages, or which products will be affected by the judgment.,” Quass reports.
> 
> Simon Sage reports for Android Central, “The win will likely mean a sales injunction as soon as Apple posts its 25 million euro bond, and for an extra 10 million euros, it can get Motorola to destroy the infringing devices. For another 10 million euros beyond that, Apple can force Motorola to announce a recall.”
> 
> “Motorola has been contesting the validity of this patent, ‘List Scrolling and Document Translation, Scaling, and Rotation on a Touch-screen display,’ through the entire case, though Apple has defended it successfully so far and will do so one more time in Mannheim Regional Court on December 7 before all is said and done,” Sage reports. “Has Google’s investment in Motorola as a patent bulwark proven to be effective or is it more of a liability?”
> 
> 
> Read more at http://macdailynews.com/2012/09/14/...over-patent-infringement/#PQJ8GLDccP82sprP.99


----------



## andrewf

If Apple felt they were FRAND patents and that HTC was being discriminatory, wouldn't they have litigated it already?


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> If Apple felt they were FRAND patents and that HTC was being discriminatory, wouldn't they have litigated it already?


I'm not an expert in this stuff, but I don't think it's up to Apple to litigate. Apple may be using HTC patented technology in their products, and are willing to pay the appropriate licensing fee. HTC wants more, and Apple's refusing to pay. Thus, HTC is suing. Motorola has tried the same thing without success. FRAND patents are FRAND for a reason - it's comical seeing these megacompanies abusing them and expecting to get results. 

This is why it really annoys me when people think Apple is the patent troll in all this. It's absolutely the furthest thing from the truth.


----------



## Dibs

Apple at the summit: The trouble with being No. 1 (Globe and Mail)


----------



## brad

Two million preorders for the iPhone 5 in the first 24 hours, more than double the number of preorders for the 4S. And AT&T says the iPhone 5 hit a sales record, with more orders received than for any previous iPhone model.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/09/17/business/ap-us-apple-iphone-5.html?


----------



## GOB

It's not often something so incredible is also so easy to predict and take advantage of. Apple has been an amazing company and stock, and still will for some time to come.


----------



## brad

I wonder if the stock will take a hit from all the controversy over Apple's homegrown Maps app in iOS6. By all accounts it's a huge step backward from Google Maps. It certainly looks nicer, but looks don't count for much if entire towns are missing and directions don't work properly. There's quite an uproar about it, with many people claiming the iPhone is now useless as a navigation device, although it's worth noting that you can still access Google Maps via the web browser.


----------



## andrewf

Pulling Google Maps makes Apple look a bit petty, and that they care more about their vendetta with Google than the user experience of their customers.


----------



## brad

Agreed. Anil Dash has a very good little essay on this topic that's worth reading: http://dashes.com/anil/2012/09/who-benefits-from-ios6s-crappy-maps.html


----------



## andrewf

Is this even a good use of Apple's focus and resources? They are not a search company--that is not their core competency. Competing with the king of search is going to be costly and risky. Apple has the resources, but should they be using them to engage in a dogfight with Google on maps? Maps on the go is a major 'killer app' of smartphones, and borking your user experience is going to make a lot of people think long and hard about switching to Android.


----------



## ddkay

Google Maps is pending approval in the App store..... pending approval..... let's see if they let it through


----------



## brad

The problem is that Google has also intentionally crippled the iOS app so it doesn't provide all the features available in the Android app. I think, for example, that it's lacking turn-by-turn directions. Google definitely has the upper hand in this particular battle.


----------



## ddkay

A bookmark to http://m.google.com/maps works ok as a temporary fix


----------



## indexxx

Apple has stated that they knew it was a foot-in-the-door app release and they are working right now to address anyone's issues. 
"Apple is reportedly working to further enhance Maps in subsequent updates to iOS 6."


----------



## brad

indexxx said:


> "Apple is reportedly working to further enhance Maps in subsequent updates to iOS 6."


Yes, but the kinds of enhancements we're talking about here will probably take years to fix. They're relying on incomplete and outdated data in many cases: entire towns and villages are missing from the maps (including Stratford-Upon-Avon, UK, where a certain bard once lived). Landmarks are misplaced, buildings don't show up in the database, etc. These are not problems with the functionality, these are gaps in the data. It took Google years of effort to make its maps as good as they are now; it'll probably take Apple quite a while just to catch up to the accuracy of Google's current maps.


----------



## killuminati

ddkay said:


> Google Maps is pending approval in the App store..... pending approval..... let's see if they let it through


Why does google want to release a maps app for the iphone now? This is a huge issue for upgrading to IO6 for a lot of people. Why make it easier for them?

Does any money come in for the use of maps?


----------



## jcgd

I use my iPhone for:

Internet
Text
Stocks
Phone calls
GPS

What an epic fail on Apple's part. I can't believe they would be so damn stupid. I understand making a maps app. But it should have been near perfect before it was released. I will not be upgrading to iOS6 just because of apps. It would literally put a kink in my day of I don't have a good map app. 

If I were google there would be no way in hell I would release maps to iPhone users. Why would you? Even if it was an app for a fee I still wouldn't release it.


----------



## andrewf

Google doesn't really care whether people use iOS or Android, as long as they are using their services. Google is all about search (and ad revenue).


----------



## Lephturn

killuminati said:


> Why does google want to release a maps app for the iphone now? This is a huge issue for upgrading to IO6 for a lot of people. Why make it easier for them?
> 
> Does any money come in for the use of maps?


Yes - it's all about mobile ad dollars. Google Maps - and the locations that pop up - drive ad impressions. By pulling Google Maps Apple is both taking revenue from a company that has become a competitor and positioning themselves to gain that revenue. Good move long term.


----------



## jcgd

Lephturn said:


> Yes - it's all about mobile ad dollars. Google Maps - and the locations that pop up - drive ad impressions. By pulling Google Maps Apple is both taking revenue from a company that has become a competitor and positioning themselves to gain that revenue. Good move long term.


Yes, I agree it is a good strategy. However, I think they really jumped the gun. I just think it is a (rare) spot of weakness for Apple until their Map app is up to snuff.


----------



## brad

jcgd said:


> I just think it is a (rare) spot of weakness for Apple until their Map app is up to snuff.


It's actually not so atypical for Apple to do this kind of thing. They've rushed other things to market before they were ready: MobileMe, the Newton, the earlier versions of OSX, etc., and even Siri wasn't quite ready for prime time when it was released. I think the difference this time is that there's a much larger affected user base, and the impact is much more serious because it cripples a feature that most of those users rely on daily. This is a pretty big deal and a pretty big stumble for Apple. It's not stopping the millions of people from lining up to buy their iPhones today, but Apple will have to spend a lot of time fielding complaints and rushing to fix this issue, which cannot be fixed overnight or even in the next few months.

It's true, though, that iPhone users can just go to the mobile Google Maps website, but I'm not sure it offers all the functionality that people had with the previous Maps app in iOS that ran on Google Maps.


----------



## ddkay

Download MapQuest: http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/mapquest/id316126557?mt=8

It's free, has turn-by-turn navigation, traffic information and uses the NAVTEQ database (same as Yahoo Maps, Bing Maps, Garmin, etc).


----------



## GOB

I knew there would be another "antennagate". Apple product launches are so predictable. Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying this isn't an issue at all, but like most issues with new Apple products it's overblown. The vector graphics, UI, and turn-by-turn nav are huge improvements over the previous app. But it's true that none of that matters much if the mapping data isn't accurate. 

It seems like the maps are hit or miss depending on location - most major North American cities are generally OK. I agree this is not good enough, but this too shall pass.

I'm sure Apple is dedicating a lot of resources toward improving this ASAP. To be fair to them, Google was holding back turn-by-turn nav so Apple had little choice but to go their own way. Mapping is a huge endeavour that takes many iterations to become good. I hope Apple attacks this issue with full force.

As for the impact on the stock, there may be a temporary overblown reaction but I don't see this being an issue long term. Google Maps is still available through Safari and they'll have their own app before the end of the year.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Is this even a good use of Apple's focus and resources? They are not a search company--that is not their core competency. Competing with the king of search is going to be costly and risky. Apple has the resources, but should they be using them to engage in a dogfight with Google on maps? Maps on the go is a major 'killer app' of smartphones, and borking your user experience is going to make a lot of people think long and hard about switching to Android.


You could say the same about Google - hardware and mobile operating systems was not their core competency. So far, they've derived very little revenue out of their Android endeavour, despite the impressive market share statistics.

You could also have said getting into the music and phone industries was not Apple's core competency - they were primarily a computer company for much of their existence. Companies branch out - they just need to be careful about it.


----------



## indexxx

jcgd said:


> I use my iPhone for:
> 
> Internet
> Text
> Stocks
> Phone calls
> GPS
> 
> What an epic fail on Apple's part. I can't believe they would be so damn stupid. I understand making a maps app. But it should have been near perfect before it was released. I will not be upgrading to iOS6 just because of apps. It would literally put a kink in my day of I don't have a good map app.
> 
> If I were google there would be no way in hell I would release maps to iPhone users. Why would you? Even if it was an app for a fee I still wouldn't release it.


Didn't I read someplace about Maps improving with user input, being a cloud-based app?


----------



## andrewf

They're all cloud-based...

The error rate will only fall so far if relying on customer input to correct. And every correction will be a negative customer experience...


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> It seems like the maps are hit or miss depending on location - most major North American cities are generally OK.


I'm not sure even this is true. There are many inaccuracies in the New York City map data. See this excerpt from Anil Dash's critique:



Anil Dash said:


> Here in Manhattan, where I live, basic search by building names is profoundly degraded in Apple's maps search. "Bloomberg" doesn't find the Bloomberg Tower; on Google Maps it's the first result. Searching for its address "731 Lexington Avenue" yields that address on Lexington Avenue in Brooklyn. It's fine to think that perhaps I wanted the address in Bed-Stuy, but even appending "NY, NY" or "Manhattan, NY" still yields the Brooklyn address. Google maps has none of these comprehension issues. I understand this is due to Apple partnering with Tom Tom, whose maps are considered to be lower in quality than other players like Nokia, but I'm not informed enough to say with certainty whether that's the case.
> 
> Similar troubles plague the directions and routing features for drivers. I'd tried the driving maps for everywhere from the New Jersey suburbs to rural Mexico and found out-of-date road information, impossible directions and a general level of unreliability that I never recall seeing from Google maps, even when it first launched. I have only used the walking directions in Manhattan where Apple's new maps have worked fine, but in fairness, it's almost impossible to screw up walking directions when you're on the grid in Manhattan.
> 
> And then there's transit. While transit maps were the subject of some misinformation when they were originally removed during the iOS 6 beta releases, the fundamental truth is that, out of the box, Apple's maps have no transit features.


----------



## m3s

I wonder why Apple doesn't just tap into OpenSourceMaps, which is basically the wikipedia of maps. It's only a matter of time before OSM surpasses anything else imo as there's no way any company can keep up with a crowd source with something that big. Apple already tapped into crowd sourcing for the apps, no way they could have made all those apps themselves. There are just far too many updates and changes.. I used it exclusively on vacation in places I didn't want to buy another map, and now I use it exclusively in Europe. It has hiking trails, abandoned roads, bike trails and interesting POIs that Google/Garmin etc does not. Found lots of cool things using OSM that my Garmin maps didn't have so I don't even bother with the maps I paid for anymore.. You can download an OSM app free for iOS and you can easily fix any errors if you find them, which you cannot do on Google/Garmin/TomTom etc. Anyone can take the OSM data and make a nav app out of it.


----------



## brad

mode3sour said:


> I wonder why Apple doesn't just tap into OpenSourceMaps


They are using it. I know they use it for iPhoto, and I'm assuming they're also using OSM data for the new iOS maps app.


----------



## GOB

You have to remember, Google Maps is far from perfect either (though its accuracy is far better at the moment). A lot of this is fearmongering. Just like "antennagate", it's human nature to pile on the damage. Once the media moves on, this will largely be forgotten (again, just like "antennagate"). If news reports broke about Google Maps problems the same way they have for Apple, you can bet you would get thousands of posters picking apart all the inaccuracies they find - because they do exist. I just found one myself.

I'm not defending Apple here - I do think they have caused a problem here. All I'm saying is the problems and all the articles are blowing it way out of proportion. And I wouldn't expect anything less on launch day


----------



## m3s

In that case the map data issue should resolve itself. OSM is just catching on but crowd sourcing is the way to go for map data imo.

Do you use iPhoto as your main photo app? I find it annoying that it has to import/duplicate all photos to use it when I'm taking gigabits of time lapse photos. I found iTunes annoying that way as well but it does make a better library use across many devices. I like iTunes once I got used to it but I was going to search for another photo app.


----------



## brad

mode3sour said:


> Do you use iPhoto as your main photo app? I find it annoying that it has to import/duplicate all photos to use it when I'm taking gigabits of time lapse photos.


I do use it, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't have to import all the photos; you can choose which ones you want to import by selecting them. I also use Lightroom, which of course is much more sophisticated and also lets you choose which photos to import.

As for the iOS maps app, I'm not actually sure it uses OSM; maybe it does for some of the data, but I think their main geographic data provider is Tom Tom. I bet they're using a mix of sources, though. There's a credit to OSM in iPhoto so they're definitely using it there.


----------



## ddkay

Why did the Foxxcon factory shut down today?


----------



## FrugalTrader

There was a brawl involving over 2000 factory workers..

http://business.financialpost.com/2...nn-closes-factory-after-brawl-involving-2000/


----------



## GOB

Foxconn riots combined with "disappointing" iPhone 5 sales of 5 million units over the weekend have led to this little selloff. Looks like iPhone 5 is supply constrained, like every other iPhone launch before it. This may be a bit more serious as it looks like the plant may be shut down for a few days. Watch for hit pieces blaming Apple for the Foxconn riots. 

For anyone interested in the long term potential of this atom it might be a good spot to dip your toes in. Stock, spreads or LEAPs could all provide payouts with some patience. Apple is going to report some mindblowing numbers in the upcoming months.


----------



## KaeJS

GOB said:


> For anyone interested in the long term potential of this atom it might be a good spot to dip your toes in. Stock, spreads or LEAPs could all provide payouts with some patience. Apple is going to report some mindblowing numbers in the upcoming months.


This is probably 100% true. Lots of potential to make money here.


----------



## MrMatt

KaeJS said:


> This is probably 100% true. Lots of potential to make money here.


How many phones can they really sell?
They're expensive, and if you have a recent smartphone, there is no compelling reason to upgrade.


----------



## indexxx

MrMatt said:


> How many phones can they really sell?
> They're expensive, and if you have a recent smartphone, there is no compelling reason to upgrade.


Methinks you underestimate the power of marketing and desire on the modern mind!


----------



## brad

They sold 5 million in the first three days.


----------



## HaroldCrump

brad said:


> They sold 5 million in the first three days.


----------



## KaeJS

MrMatt said:


> How many phones can they really sell?
> They're expensive, and if you have a recent smartphone, there is no compelling reason to upgrade.


How many phones can they really sell? Well.... a few boatloads.

And if you have a recent smartphone, financially speaking, no, there is no compelling reason to upgrade. However, someone like myself upgraded. I went from a 32GB 4S and I got the 64GB iPhone 5 on Friday.

Did I need it? Nope.
Waste of money? Yep.
Do I regret it? Nope.

People will buy. Including both financially responsible and financially irresponsible people. Kids. Teens. Adults. Males. Females. It's the perfect product because the market is so wide.


----------



## kcowan

My thanks to all the buyers of the iPhone 5. My wife also thanks you. We love to see records being broken in the face of the many naysayers. It is a matter of faith.


----------



## Toronto.gal

brad said:


> They sold 5 million in the first three days.


That's just NOT good enough Brad!

Analysts were expecting 8 million. :rolleyes2:

My thanks also to all the buyers of the iPhones! 

Myself, I prefer to: 1) own the shares, and 2) iSave to buy all time lows shares. 

*Harold:* don't you think the EHF should be higher for cell-phones given the change frequency?


----------



## jcgd

Just thinking aloud here, but iPhone sales have been increasing at a rate of around 80% per year. At this current pace (I know, the past isn't the future) they *could* be selling over 1 billion phones per year in 2016. This would be about 30% of the worlds middle class buying a iPhone every year.

7.5 billion people X 50% = 3.5 billion in middle class.

This: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_class says that about 50% of the world's population is middle class. This isn't even by our standards, because middle class just means that you have a reasonable amount of disposable income. I guess it is not determined by the salary you earn, so compared to most of the world's pop. we would be more "rich" than middle class.

I love Apple, but I'm thinking there can only be a few more years of the insane growth unless they have a huge hunk of market share on tablets, phones, computers, etc.


----------



## brad

jcgd said:


> I love Apple, but I'm thinking there can only be a few more years of the insane growth unless they have a huge hunk of market share on tablets, phones, computers, etc.


Who knows what the future will bring. But it still looks pretty bright for Apple in the foreseeable future, because not only do they have new customers but repeat customers, and the iPhone is a gateway drug that opens the door to Apple's other products. Apple has been making unprecedented headway in the PC market recently; it wasn't so long ago that they had about 2% market share; it's well over 12% in the US alone now.

The thing to remember about Apple, though, is that they've never been about market domination. They didn't set out to dominate the phone market; they just set out to reimagine the smartphone and develop something they thought would be better than anything else on the market at the time. That's generally the way Apple works. They aren't about brute force domination. They're not going to have runaway hits with everything, and that's not their goal. They spend more time saying no to good ideas than saying yes. All of the products they make can fit together on one large office desk. They don't want to be Microsoft or Dell with hundreds of variants and spinoffs: Apple's point is focus.

So at some point, the tide will swing, and I suspect Apple will go back to being a niche player, albeit still a highly successful and profitable one. In the meantime, investors can enjoy the ride while it lasts.


----------



## andrewf

Apple's goal is to make money (especially with Jobs gone). Making devices that people want to buy is a means to an end.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that no way is Apple going to sell 1 billion phones per year any time soon. 

1) If the average iPhone in circulation lasts for 4 years (because you can sell your iPhone to some sucker who will pay what you paid for it). Most people are not early adopters who throw away a perfectly good 4S to get the iPhone 5.
2) 80% of people in mid- to high-income countries own a high end smartphone because children under a certain age won't own one and penetration among the 70+ will be modest. 
3) iPhone marketshare in the high end smartphone space rises back up to 50% and maintains that level.
4) There are perhaps 3 billion people in the world that can spend $700 - $1000 on a phone (assuming all those that can, do).

Then, 3 billion * 80% * 50% / 4 years = 300 million.

So 300 million is the very optimistic sales/year scenario.

I would expect a leveling off in the area of 100 million - 150 million per year. Of course, if they can maintain their gross profit per phone in the $400 range, that is still a very health profit of $40-60 billion per year. I suspect margins that high will be tough to maintain, especially as Android gets better and better specs become less relevant, cheaper smartphones will become better and better substitutes.


----------



## jcgd

Well, that's what I'm saying. This year Apple will sell around 100-130 million phones. So I can't see much gigantic growth past 2013. 

I'm long Apple... but I'm trying to decide when to cut and run.


----------



## indexxx

I also don't think it's possible to sell one billion iPhones in a year, but it's not as simple as 'how many iPhones can they sell'. Their revenue pipeline includes iPods, iPads, and Macs for hardware as well as yet unforeseen products. But there is also the entire iTunes umbrella- it's the information consumables like music, books, video that are a huge part of their future. And who knows where e-textbooks might go, or maybe Apple partners up and makes the iCar, or etc etc.


----------



## brad

indexxx said:


> or maybe Apple partners up and makes the iCar, or etc etc.


I'd be happy if they just made a universal television remote. Quite possibly the most unusable, confusing product in the entire history of electronics, just waiting for Apple to rethink it. They do sell a remote, which looks like the first-generation iPod nano with one button, but a universal remote to control your TV and DVD player, etc. would be pretty popular. Oh yeah, and the microwave -- Apple could probably make that easier to use too. Anyone for iPopcorn?


----------



## blin10

it's been out for years, take a look at logitech one



brad said:


> I'd be happy if they just made a universal television remote. Quite possibly the most unusable, confusing product in the entire history of electronics, just waiting for Apple to rethink it. They do sell a remote, which looks like the first-generation iPod nano with one button,* but a universal remote to control your TV and DVD player, etc.* would be pretty popular. Oh yeah, and the microwave -- Apple could probably make that easier to use too. Anyone for iPopcorn?


----------



## indexxx

brad said:


> I'd be happy if they just made a universal television remote. Quite possibly the most unusable, confusing product in the entire history of electronics, just waiting for Apple to rethink it. They do sell a remote, which looks like the first-generation iPod nano with one button, but a universal remote to control your TV and DVD player, etc. would be pretty popular. Oh yeah, and the microwave -- Apple could probably make that easier to use too. Anyone for iPopcorn?


How about an iPhone app for it? I believe there's one now for Canon cameras that allows you to use your phone as a remote triggering device, changing all shot parameters like ISO, aperture, etc.


----------



## brad

blin10 said:


> it's been out for years, take a look at logitech one


The Logitech One is a perfect illustration of why Apple could make a lot of money by rethinking the universal remote.


----------



## brad

indexxx said:


> How about an iPhone app for it? I believe there's one now for Canon cameras that allows you to use your phone as a remote triggering device, changing all shot parameters like ISO, aperture, etc.


I have an iPhone app from Apple called "Remote" that lets you control your iTunes library from anywhere in the house. So if you're sitting downstairs listening to music or watching TV and your computer's upstairs you can choose tracks, shows, fast-forward, etc. 

But I still think an Apple-style remote, with no physical buttons, that works on any TV and DVD player etc. would be a welcome product. The awful Logitech universal remote has 34 buttons, which is 33 too many.


----------



## indexxx

Well, I guess that if the new Apple TV becomes a reality, it will solve the issue instantly


----------



## indexxx

brad said:


> I'd be happy if they just made a universal television remote. Quite possibly the most unusable, confusing product in the entire history of electronics, just waiting for Apple to rethink it. They do sell a remote, which looks like the first-generation iPod nano with one button, but a universal remote to control your TV and DVD player, etc. would be pretty popular. Oh yeah, and the microwave -- Apple could probably make that easier to use too. Anyone for iPopcorn?


Then again, their whole concept is to do away with DVD players and so forth, getting us hooked on iTunes to download and watch content on our Macs/Apple TV/iPads etc. Which is why we are invested in their shares in the first place!


----------



## andrewf

Yeah. iPhone is reaching the saturation point, but other products can certainly generate growth. On the other hand, it will take huge blockbuster products to keep moving the needle.


----------



## andrewf

brad said:


> I'd be happy if they just made a universal television remote. Quite possibly the most unusable, confusing product in the entire history of electronics, just waiting for Apple to rethink it. They do sell a remote, which looks like the first-generation iPod nano with one button, but a universal remote to control your TV and DVD player, etc. would be pretty popular. Oh yeah, and the microwave -- Apple could probably make that easier to use too. Anyone for iPopcorn?


It would be a pretty niche product compared to iPhone. And how much would people realistically be willing to pay for a dedicated iRemote? I think TVs with bluetooth and iPhone apps are more realistic. Or bluetooth+IR standalone device that can be controlled by smartphone (true universal remote). Either way, not much room to sell new gadgets for big gross profit/unit, I think.


----------



## brad

Yeah, I was kidding about the universal remote, but I do think it's a niche that someone could go into even if it's not an area for Apple. One company has already taken an Apple-like approach to redesigning the programmable thermostat, another piece of technology that very few people seem to be able to figure out how to use. The standard user interface for TV remotes completely baffles the vast majority of users. I'm reasonably tech-savvy myself and I've given up in frustration many times when staying in hotels or renting vacation homes and tried to use the remotes. I have friends who don't even bother trying to use their remotes anymore and just get up to hit the buttons on their TV or DVD player.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Apple's goal is to make money (especially with Jobs gone). Making devices that people want to buy is a means to an end.
> 
> I'm going to stick my neck out and say that no way is Apple going to sell 1 billion phones per year any time soon.
> 
> 1) If the average iPhone in circulation lasts for 4 years (because you can sell your iPhone to some sucker who will pay what you paid for it). Most people are not early adopters who throw away a perfectly good 4S to get the iPhone 5.
> 2) 80% of people in mid- to high-income countries own a high end smartphone because children under a certain age won't own one and penetration among the 70+ will be modest.
> 3) iPhone marketshare in the high end smartphone space rises back up to 50% and maintains that level.
> 4) There are perhaps 3 billion people in the world that can spend $700 - $1000 on a phone (assuming all those that can, do).
> 
> Then, 3 billion * 80% * 50% / 4 years = 300 million.
> 
> So 300 million is the very optimistic sales/year scenario.
> 
> I would expect a leveling off in the area of 100 million - 150 million per year. Of course, if they can maintain their gross profit per phone in the $400 range, that is still a very health profit of $40-60 billion per year. I suspect margins that high will be tough to maintain, especially as Android gets better and better specs become less relevant, cheaper smartphones will become better and better substitutes.


I agree that 1B/year is unlikely to happen. The beauty is though, the stock isn't priced anywhere close to that kind of growth trajectory. It's essentially priced at zero forward growth, or single digit growth at best. 

I don't know where you get your levelling off at 100 - 150 million from. Apple is poised to sell over 150 million in 2013 alone if they can manage the supply - probably 50 million before the end of 2012. Are you expecting their sales to drop in a market where smartphone penetration has just recently passed 50% in the US, and is much lower in the rest of the world (China is largely untapped)? I don't see the logic here. Apple market share also looks to be growing against Android, as more people are trying Android, realizing the negatives outweigh the positives, and are going back to the iPhone.


----------



## Lephturn

What's your "back up the truck" price for AAPL?

Technically we are in a place where I am a buyer. To be clear - I am scooping up available cash and getting long AAPL here or adding more to positions I already have.


----------



## ddkay

For me probably around 650


----------



## dave2012

brad said:


> I have an iPhone app from Apple called "Remote" that lets you control your iTunes library from anywhere in the house. So if you're sitting downstairs listening to music or watching TV and your computer's upstairs you can choose tracks, shows, fast-forward, etc.
> 
> But I still think an Apple-style remote, with no physical buttons, that works on any TV and DVD player etc. would be a welcome product. The awful Logitech universal remote has 34 buttons, which is 33 too many.


Reminds me of the frustration of the remote that comes with Rogers Nextbust... er Nextbox. 64 buttons if I remember correctly. Like you would say 63 buttons too many. Almost impossible to use (doesn't light up even) at night. You have to feel around trying to figure out what key your finger is one and hope it does what you think it is programmed to do. Begone technology from 1980! We need Apple to show em all how a 'tv' should work and be controlled with real simply logic. The required technology has been around for decades but cable company's are so in the dark. They must have been hiring developers from Kodak in recent years...


----------



## jamesbe

You DO NOT want a touchscreen remote. They exist, I had one years ago. Problem with them is you have to look at them all the time you can't use feel to FF or Pause. Hard buttons are better.


----------



## jcgd

jamesbe said:


> You DO NOT want a touchscreen remote. They exist, I had one years ago. Problem with them is you have to look at them all the time you can't use feel to FF or Pause. Hard buttons are better.


What if it was a touchscreen that was logic based motion? For example, you select TV, DVD, etc. And then the motions you input control it. So when watching a movie you tap once to pause, tap again to play. To go to the home screen you double tap. To fast forward you swipe right, tap to resume play. The menu could be navigated that way too, swipe down it moves down one menu selection.

You could do the same for TV in regards to volume (swipe left/right) and channel (swipe up/down) but you'd have to deal with looking at the remote to enter numbers. Single tap would bring up the keypad and a tap would enter the selection. It could also bring up the tv guide which you could scroll through and double tap could be tv (or other selected funtion) on/off.

A tap and hold could bring up a favorite channel list that would now override the channel up/down and instead would scroll between your say, 10 favorite channels. Hold again to revert to single channel switching.


----------



## GOB

jamesbe said:


> You DO NOT want a touchscreen remote. They exist, I had one years ago. Problem with them is you have to look at them all the time you can't use feel to FF or Pause. Hard buttons are better.


This sounds a lot like Steve Ballmer's famous quote "the iPhone won't b successful because it doesn't have physical keys, which makes it not a very good e-mail machine" or something to that effect. 

It won't be easy to do it right, but touchscreen combined with voice and motion could one day be possible as a far enter alternative to a remote with dozens of confusing buttons.


----------



## andrewf

If it's just a touch device, why not just a smartphone or tablet app?


----------



## ddkay

Hrmm, well I finally had a chance to spend a night with an iPhone 5.. my personal experience, going to a smaller but taller screen is awkward. It's new weight makes it feel like an empty soda can. Upon lifting it from the table I almost threw it behind me. I appreciate when there's some heft. Out of box it's just another device. I guess people will still buy them. I'm just going to get the GS3 for $99.95 on contract.


----------



## GOB

ddkay said:


> Hrmm, well I finally had a chance to spend a night with an iPhone 5.. my personal experience, going to a smaller but taller screen is awkward. It's new weight makes it feel like an empty soda can. Upon lifting it from the table I almost threw it behind me. I appreciate when there's some heft. Out of box it's just another device. I guess people will still buy them. I'm just going to get the GS3 for $99.95 on contract.



I felt the same way at first but after about 3 days I much prefer it over the 4/4S form factor. Change is always awkward at first - that doesn't mean it's bad. I remember the complaints about the 4 being too sharp compared to rounded back of the 3G/3GS - don't hear people complaining about that anymore.


----------



## PMREdmonton

If history is a good judge the best price to buy Apple is when it touches its 200-day moving average. We may not get down to those prices right now but I think it is possible that the market overbought Apple and they may under-deliver the market's expectations. Years of Apple under-estimating its returns have led to the market discounting them and creating their own. If the market really reacts negatively to this we may get there and this would make Apple a buy again. Right now I think the key price point would be about 575 for a great buy.

Apple stock has tended to have a seasonal weakpoint in Nov-Dec but I don't know if we'll see it this year because of the early release of the iphone 5 and because some of those sales will come into the next reported quarter. If this is the case then maybe there will be an advance of the seasonal low into late October or so.


----------



## brad

It's funny, because the complaints about change illustrate perfectly why Apple is taking the right approach by making small evolutionary changes to the iPhone rather than big revolutionary ones. In a way it reflects a truth evident in political processes as well: people clamor for change in the abstract, but then when presented with real, tangible change they balk at it. You have to walk the narrow line between changing things enough to keep them fresh without rocking the boat.


----------



## GOB

I agree that $650 would be a great entry level if we get there. It would be an 8% drop from the highs, and there are various technical support levels right around there. I'm not fully confident it won't break that but regardless, it would be a great time to get in going into the biggest product launch in consumer electronics history.

PMRE - $575 would be an unbelievable buy. I have trouble believing we'll get there though. Assuming a $60 EPS next year, that would mean the stock is trading at a forward P/E of under 10, and 7.5 if you back out the cash. I don't think one should miss a great opportunity by waiting for levels that are highly unlikely to be hit (but definitely not impossible). A few staggered entry points may be a good way to approach this, instead of "backing up the truck" at a single point.


----------



## GOB

brad said:


> It's funny, because the complaints about change illustrate perfectly why Apple is taking the right approach by making small evolutionary changes to the iPhone rather than big revolutionary ones. In a way it reflects a truth evident in political processes as well: people clamor for change in the abstract, but then when presented with real, tangible change they balk at it. You have to walk the narrow line between changing things enough to keep them fresh without rocking the boat.


This is a great point. If Apple had made the screen wider as well and 4.5-5" overall, the headlines would change to "Apple catches up to Android but neglects huge userbase that want smaller phones that fit in their hand." This is why Apple doesn't listen to others and generally does things their own way that prove to be the best later on after the rioting subsidies.


----------



## kcowan

GOB said:


> This is why Apple doesn't listen to others and generally does things their own way that prove to be the best later on after the rioting subsidies.


Let's hope they keep it up!


----------



## ddkay

Hmm now SGS3 is $0 on 3Y at the big 3. Samsung must have marked down to take advantage of the iPhone 5 shortage.


----------



## GOB

I would say we are now at "back up the truck" levels - though I don't advise going all in. Entering a position here would be an excellent buy and hold play.

We're still trending down so further downside is possible. For a safer play wait for a couple of strong days before getting in. 

The latest rumour is that we'll see an iPad Mini event invitation on October 10. Given the weakness in the stock right now, this would almost certainly be positive news.


----------



## ddkay

I'm hoping for more volatility this month. I moved my sell stops from 640 to 600. Anything between 600-700 is good for accumulation, I'm holding these at least until Apple is over $1000.


----------



## andrewf

Any predictions on price point for the 7 inch iPad 16gb? My prediction is $299 to be competitive with the Nexus 7. At that price point, the gross margin % should be about the same as iPad 3 16gb, but lower $ margin/unit, as a consequence of lower price.

Apparently Apple's market share among tablets is down to a bit over 50%, and Android-based devices should overtake soon.


----------



## ddkay

Pretty much depends on the components they throw in it, without a retina display and higher capacity battery they could easily match the price of the 16GB Nexus 7 at $249


----------



## GOB

Great close today. The stock seems to have reacted positively to several support so its possible the worst is behind us. 

Andrew - I'm not too worried about the slight decline in market share. *iPads account for 91% of tablet web traffic.*That's a stunning statistic, and one that makes you wonder what people are really doing with millions of Android tablets. Developers, advertisers and corporations don't care about tablets that are being used as door stoppers or left unused in the bottom of a drawer. That's where usage stats tell you more than market share stats. That being said, I think an iPad Mini makes sense as part of Apple's overall plan to be the leader in mobile computing. The 7" tablet space is growing (especially for multimedia consumption) and Apple would be wise to be a participant in it, if only to strengthen the overall ecosystem.


----------



## andrewf

It would be worse than Nexus 7 if it doesn't have a Retina display. Nexus 7 pixel density is nearly has high as iPad 3.

I don't think Apple would go down to $249. It would take a lot of sales away from iPad 2 and 3 for all the people who don't care about the better features, but want an Apple device. And Nexus 7 is a pretty solid device--I don't think Apple would release an inferior device to go up against it (and they would have had enough forewarning to know what they were up against).


----------



## andrewf

From the stats I saw, Android accounted for 22% of mobile web traffic to 75% from iOS. Android tablet offerings have been pretty weak until recently, so the Android share is mostly from phones. Regardless of 91%, or 75%--the share is falling quickly.


----------



## Jungle

Hmm anyone else watching this? Why are shares down so much lately?


----------



## brad

I assume it's mainly due to the flap about the maps, with investors feeling like this is evidence that Apple is losing its way without Steve Jobs. Which of course is silly, because Jobs presided over his fair share of flops and mistakes too, and he let some things out of the door before they were ready for prime time. But the maps fiasco fits too conveniently into people's desire to believe that Apple was a one-man show.


----------



## ddkay

It started with Apple only selling half as many iP5's as expected and the maps issue.. then complaints started about some iP5's having scuff marks out-of-box. Apple gave Foxcon more stringent instructions for Quality Control to address the problem, but then fights broke out between workers at the factory dormitories. Now the Foxcon factory shut down as workers strike against the unfair working conditions.

This was the photo making rounds


----------



## namelessone

Rumor says the production for mini Ipad has already started. There're people thinking this will cut into Apple's revenue and possibily margins by competing against its 10 inch tablet.


----------



## doctrine

This is Apple - they'll probably charge more for the smaller one.


----------



## GOB

What I said long ago regarding the new iPad launch applies to the iPhone 5 (and soon the iPad Mini):



GOB said:


> Call it whatever you want, this is just going to go like any other Apple product launch:
> 
> Pre-launch: hype *check*
> Launch: "disappointment" (often for stupid reasons stemming from crazy rumours) *check*
> Aftermath: record sales and profits *check*


----------



## brad

According to this NYTimes blog post, the stock hit is related to iPhone 5 shipment delays:

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/iphone-5-shortage-spooks-apple-investors/

It's worth pointing out that some long-time Apple observers believe there won't be an iPad Mini at all, despite all the rumours and leaks from component manufacturers.


----------



## ddkay

Post Jobs, Apple leaks have been pretty accurate... when it came to the iPhone 5, the rumours just before release got the specs right to a tee, and they even leaked design renders. There's no more secrecy in the company anymore, I think Tim Cook wants leaks to happen.


----------



## GOB

The iPhone 4 was also leaked with Jobs at the helm. When you are producing tens of millions of units across various factories halfway across the world, preventing leaks is a monumental, near-impossible task.


----------



## brad

This is the naysayer article I was thinking of, by one of the senior editors at Macworld. He's probably wrong, but time will tell ;-)

http://www.macworld.com/article/2010983/ipad-mini-now-may-not-be-the-time.html


----------



## andrewf

It's not reasonable to expect producing millions of units of a device completely secret. How many thousands of workers would be involved?


----------



## GOB

Agreed, especially from the most publicly scrutinized company on the planet.


----------



## GOB

Interesting - the much anticipated iPad Mini invitation failed to occur today. Even more interesting, the stock didn't seem to react to the news (or lack thereof). Hopefully it's coming up soon. It's a tricky one as some people still don't think the product even exists, and I'm not 100% sure myself.


----------



## namelessone

Risk vs reward:
Food for thought,
Is APPL going to $1000 from $630 a big reward? $370 difference seems like a lot of money for one share. That's only a 59% gain. I don't think a person's portfolio should only consisted of one stock-AAPL. A 59% gain for one stock is insignificant for an equal weight portfolio with 30 stocks. That gain is translated into 2% gain for the whole perfortlio. So whoever is longing AAPL is betting that Apple will become a trillion dollar company for a reward of 2% overall gain. I get 4% dividend per year without doing anything. 
Well, if AAPL is the majority position in your portfolio, good luck. 

P.S. Let's look at the top 50 largest cap stocks in US and see who they are. Apparently, Apple is currently sitting at top and it makes almost 75% of its money from two products: Ipad and Iphone.
http://www.iweblists.com/us/commerce/MarketCapitalization.html


----------



## GOB

namelessone said:


> Risk vs reward:
> Food for thought,
> Is APPL going to $1000 from $630 a big reward? $370 difference seems like a lot of money for one share. That's only a 59% gain. I don't think a person's portfolio should only consisted of one stock-AAPL. A 59% gain for one stock is insignificant for an equal weight portfolio with 30 stocks. That gain is translated into 2% gain for the whole perfortlio. So whoever is longing AAPL is betting that Apple will become a trillion dollar company for a reward of 2% overall gain. I get 4% dividend per year without doing anything.
> Well, if AAPL is the majority position in your portfolio, good luck.
> 
> P.S. Let's look at the top 50 largest cap stocks in US and see who they are. Apparently, Apple is currently sitting at top and it makes almost 75% of its money from two products: Ipad and Iphone.
> http://www.iweblists.com/us/commerce/MarketCapitalization.html


You're not making any sense. Of course a 59% gain is a big reward. It doesn't matter if your portfolio is diversified - why wouldn't you want to own a stock with that much potential? By the way, if your gains are 4%, a single stock giving you additional 2% is 50% more return for you. Not too shabby of a contribution for 3% of your portfolio. 

Exxon makes most of its money from one product: oil. What's your point? Apple making money from two of the fastest growing industries in the world is not a bad thing.


----------



## GOB

iPad mini is confirmed for the 23rd. 

http://www.loopinsight.com/2012/10/12/apples-rumored-oct-23-ipad-mini-event/

For those unaware, Jim Dalrymple only says "Yep" when an event is confirmed to happen. He is basically an official indicator since Apple doesn't announce their plans ahead of time.


----------



## brad

My guess is that they'll also announce new iMacs at the same time, because I just bought a new iMac and Apple always announces a new model a month after I buy one of their products. ;-)

Seriously, though, a new iMac should be coming along sometime soon, and a new Mac Pro in 2013 as promised by Tim Cook earlier this year.


----------



## ddkay

I'm really hoping for an ivy bridge mac mini refresh... need one for the living room, they serve as small footprint inexpensive and powerful HTPCs, and when haswell comes along you can probably squeeze some decent gaming out of them too


----------



## GOB

You're probably right, actually. It appears new iMacs will also be announced on the 23rd. Tough luck on the timing, but you bought a great machine nonetheless!


----------



## brad

I figured the new ones would be coming along soon, but I got such a good deal on a refurbished iMac from Apple with all the specs I wanted (and a one-year guarantee) that I decided to take the plunge anyway. My MacBook Pro is almost five years old and I figured it was time to transition to something newer.


----------



## kcowan

You transitioned from a Macbook Pro to an iMac?


----------



## brad

kcowan said:


> You transitioned from a Macbook Pro to an iMac?


Yes! More powerful (than my early 2008 MacBook Pro), faster, a terabyte of storage, big screen. We use my computer for watching movies and TV shows (we don't have a TV), so the larger screen and better speakers make sense for us. Not to mention about $2,000 cheaper than a Retina MacBook Pro with similar specs.

I don't need a Mac laptop for traveling anymore because my iPad is adequate for my purposes (I have a Windows laptop for work).


----------



## praire_guy

brad said:


> My guess is that they'll also announce new iMacs at the same time, because I just bought a new iMac and Apple always announces a new model a month after I buy one of their products. ;-)
> 
> Seriously, though, a new iMac should be coming along sometime soon, and a new Mac Pro in 2013 as promised by Tim Cook earlier this year.



Sorry Brad, I'm the undisputed king of buying things a month before a newer model is released. 
I bought my Mac Pro in may, 2007. I could use a newer one, so let me know when in 2013 you'd like a new Mac Pro, and I'll buy one, then you can get the refreshed one. 

Seriously my Mac Pro is just fine, 5 1/2 years later.


----------



## GOB

Looks to me like we've bottomed out, although earnings are just around the corner so I can't be certain. iPad Mini is going to be huge.


----------



## michaelman501

Do you guy's feel that its to late to get in on the AAPL bubble ? I feel with the release of the IPAD MINI that stocks could climb close to the 700's again...Not sure though(who can be these days?) I have never traded before, currently just reading TONNES and playing with the questrade demo trading account before i risk losing REAL money.


----------



## GOB

michaelman501 said:


> Do you guy's feel that its to late to get in on the AAPL bubble ? I feel with the release of the IPAD MINI that stocks could climb close to the 700's again...Not sure though(who can be these days?) I have never traded before, currently just reading TONNES and playing with the questrade demo trading account before i risk losing REAL money.


It's not a bubble. High price does not mean there is a bubble. High valuation may.


----------



## andrewf

It's only a bubble if the earnings are unsustainable. The P/E is not exceptional given the earnings per share. So to be bearish, you pretty much need to believe that their earnings will fall from current levels, through a fall in sales or a tightening of margins. I think the latter is more likely than the former, as smart phones and tablets become commoditized.


----------



## GOB

Andrew, when they are selling twice as many iPhones and iPads as they are today, their margins can be cut in half and they'll make the same profit. By the way, Apple still makes amazing margins on their PC business which is certainly commoditized. They have found a way to differentiate themselves and justify a premium to consumers. Same thing will likely happen in their other business lines. Anyway, commoditization won't happen until the market nears saturation. We aren't even halfway there yet. You can't look at one side of equation and ignore the other side - it makes no sense. You were bearish in the $300s using the commoditization excuse. Fact is, it's far too early for that to even be a concern right now, because *margins are increasing.*

I'm not saying Apples grows fast forever but the reality is, if you consider all facets of the equation, there is a high probability that Apple never makes less money then they are right now. Never meaning within our investing lifetimes.


----------



## andrewf

That's quite a claim. I'd be skeptical... It's like projecting Sony forward from their heyday with TVs, walkmans, and VCRs back in the 80s.


----------



## GOB

Sony is not Apple. Besides, regardless of whether my claim pans out or not, it's not what I'm basing my investment on. I'm basing that on the immediate future which is pretty much a lock.

The problem with people who don't get Apple is that they keep looking at the past to compare them to other companies. There's no comparison. Times have changed. Apple has built a fortress that never existed in Sony's time. They have pretty much locked in a huge revenue stream for years to come.

Proper analysis is forward looking. Instead of accepting history as fact, think about things a little more deeply.


----------



## brad

I'm still trying to figure out why a mini iPad would be so popular: is it just because lots of people want a tablet but don't want to pay $520 for it so they're willing to buy something smaller? Or do they genuinely think the iPad is too big?

This one has me puzzled, it seems like they're only bringing it out (if indeed they're bringing it out) to compete with existing tablets in the same size range, which is not generally the kind of thing Apple would do. I'm trying to understand why it would be popular; to me it seems like a strange compromise because it'll still be too large to fit comfortably in a pocket but too small to take advantage of the main reason why people buy tablets in the first place -- more screen real estate.

That said, I didn't understand why anyone would buy the first iPad when it came out, since it seemed like an overgrown iPod Touch, until I had one in my hands and played with it for a while. Then I understood.


----------



## HaroldCrump

GOB said:


> There's no comparison. Times have changed. Apple has built a fortress that never existed in Sony's time. They have pretty much locked in a huge revenue stream for years to come.


At some point, there will be iFatigue.

There are only so many people on the planet that can keep buying iJunk year after year after year.

The claims you make above remind me of Ozymandias and what happened to him


----------



## GOB

brad said:


> I'm still trying to figure out why a mini iPad would be so popular: is it just because lots of people want a tablet but don't want to pay $520 for it so they're willing to buy something smaller? Or do they genuinely think the iPad is too big?


It's a little bit of both but the main reason would be cost. I agree it's not Apple-like but the business landscape has changed. Apple made a mistake by offering the iPhone exclusively on AT&T at first which was key to allowing Android to get a leg up. Now that the market has determined that the 7" form factor/price is desirable, Apple wants to get in that space to solidify their leadership position in the tablet market. I suspect they've been working on this for a while and were just waiting for the right time to release it. 

Ecosystems are incredibly important today. If Apple can capture a few lower-income tablet consumers, it will be huge. Even if not highly profitable immediately, these people will be more likely to stick with Apple for their future more expensive smartphones, tablets and computers because of Apple's vertically integrated product line. This is a long term play that will reap rewards down the line. That being said I do expect some decent margins, especially for the higher capacity and LTE options.


----------



## GOB

HaroldCrump said:


> At some point, there will be iFatigue.
> 
> There are only so many people on the planet that can keep buying iJunk year after year after year.
> 
> The claims you make above remind me of Ozymandias and what happened to him


At some point...when? At some point I'll be dead. At some point the Earth will be burned up by the sun. 

This the stupidest argument that repeatedly surfaces. It has nothing to do with Apple as an investment today. Unless you can offer a timeframe, it is literally meaningless.

There are only so many people on the planet that will eat burgers year after year. There are only so many people who will drink coke year after year. There are only so many people who will by new cars year after year. How would those arguments have panned out if you said that 20 years ago?

People are born. People die. Technology advances. People like to buy new technology.


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> This the *stupidest* argument that repeatedly surfaces.


*GOB:* I appreciate your knowledge, I really do & have learned a lot from you, so thank you for sharing. 

As well, we all know by now how much you love AAPL, I do as well because it's a great company. BUT no need to call anyone's comment stupid, which is what you do every time someone dares criticize this company; it's almost as though you owned it. Relax a little.

*Harold:* loved that pic; brought back memories of my time in the desert.


----------



## HaroldCrump

GOB said:


> This the stupidest argument that repeatedly surfaces. It has nothing to do with Apple as an investment today. Unless you can offer a timeframe, it is literally meaningless.


You tell me.
You said : _They have pretty much locked in a huge revenue stream for years to come_.

Your example of cars is a particularly bad one since the car companies have been consistently struggling for the last 10 years, partly because of demand exhaustion in the developed world, and partly margin compression in the developing world (because of Asian competition).

You may also want to scale back calling everyone stupid that doesn't fully buy into your optimism of Apple.
You like APPL stock, we get it.
But that can't mean that everyone else is stupid.


----------



## GOB

I didn't call anybody stupid, I called the argument stupid. And it is, and I explained why. I haven't seen any counter to that. Whatever, I'll leave.

T.Gal - I do own Apple. So please forgive me for getting sick of tiresome, meaningless arguments that are rehashed over and over again. Sorry if I don't just let those pass by buy I consider that a disservice to anyone who reads them.

I'm done contributing to this thread and having to wade through garbage and then get chastised for it. You all have fun.

Anyone who wants to know my views in future - feel free to PM.


----------



## ddkay

Geeze! someone is having a bad day :upset:


----------



## humble_pie

i wonder how many cmf forum members have benefited directly & personally from GOB's knowledge ?

i know i did. When AAPL soared off the 350 mark, i was left thinking to myself too-bad-game-over-TS-aapl-way-too-expensive-now-can't-play-here. But Gob returned again & again to present the case that there was still massive value left in the company.

and oh, how right he was. Little by little people found ways to trade aapl for smaller amounts of money. Sometimes by buying mini-handfuls of 10 shares at a time. Or by trading in aapl options. As far as i know, no one has yet returned to cmf forum saying they lost money in aapl shares or derivatives. IE even the smallest investor among us has been able to benefit.

gob wasn't alone. Others contributing magnificently to this rich thread were brad, andrew, ddkay, toronto.gal, kcowan, thread founder gibor plus a host of others who'd drop in & visit for a spell. Everybody argued passionately. Nobody agreed. Seen from this kaleidoscope of angles, the sprawling AAPL discussion here became one of the best treatments of a landmark company that i've ever seen.

where to go from here ? perhaps a little time-out is a good idea, while aapl itself riffs for a short while in the winds & currents.

for myself, i'll forever be grateful for having my eyes opened to an opportunity that otherwise would have daunted me.


----------



## Four Pillars

GOB said:


> I didn't call anybody stupid, I called the argument stupid.


Same thing.

Your argument isn't that impressive - you are talking about general product types (cars, burgers) while the discussion was about a specific company which offers specific products that have competition. Harold isn't saying that mobile phones are going to fade out anytime soon, just that iPhone is unlikely to dominate that market forever as it does now.

But you knew that already, because you are so much smarter than Harold and everyone else here....


----------



## thenegotiator

GOB said:


> At some point...when? At some point I'll be dead. At some point the Earth will be burned up by the sun.
> 
> This the stupidest argument that repeatedly surfaces. It has nothing to do with Apple as an investment today. Unless you can offer a timeframe, it is literally meaningless.
> 
> There are only so many people on the planet that will eat burgers year after year. There are only so many people who will drink coke year after year. There are only so many people who will by new cars year after year. How would those arguments have panned out if you said that 20 years ago?
> 
> People are born. People die. Technology advances. People like to buy new technology.



GOB
ur posts about AAPL are impressive.
I learned a lot about it from ya.
If it was not for AAPL the NASDAQ index would not be where it is at.
congrats on ur trades so far and I hope u make great trades in the future.
atm i think that aapl is taking a breather


----------



## donald

Hey!Keep the aapl posts coming!I'm also impressed by how your trading it & making money $$$$(besides the last breather)I think aapl might be warming up again-good article in the nyt today-you read it?anywho who cares what anyone thinks,all that matters is what the brokerage acct says!I like your conviction and how you back yourself in your trading with it.

Like humble says-lots have missed the move-and truth be told i think ''some'' people don't have the balls to play it and watch from the sidelines(jelous)I've made 10k on the stock in the last yr and abit.....money talks.Its not about iphones its about $.and so far it is speaking loud and clear.(every dip has been a buy....no?)


----------



## indexxx

GOB- you are a voice of sanity on this thread; I for one feel that your insights about Aapl have always been, literally, on the money. I read this thread every day and always look for your posts. The negative words of others are akin to noise in the markets- persevere and stick to your convictions. If you do bail from this thread, it's with my thanks. But here's hoping you'll change your mind...


----------



## Lephturn

Read this: Apple $1000: Why It's Time To Buy

Andy Zaky has been dead on. His $ 530 bottom call in May was one of the triggers for my very very profitable trade at that time. I was too early this time - but Zaky has been amazingly accurate. I'm not worried if he is dead right on the week or month, but his 6-12 month price targets I think are solid and fundamentally sound.


----------



## kcowan

GOB put his money where his mouth is. That alone makes him a player to be listened to. There are a bunch of PC fans who criticize Apple fanboys and consider anyone who buys them to be inferior.

That being said, there are signs of rough waters ahead. Maybe in 2 years we will see a renewed landscape with RIM and MS as viable competitors to Apple and Android. But I will wait for evidence of that success and not just opinions.


----------



## Lephturn

HaroldCrump said:


> You may also want to scale back calling everyone stupid that doesn't fully buy into your optimism of Apple.
> You like APPL stock, we get it. But that can't mean that everyone else is stupid.


I didn't think GOB was calling you stupid - he said it was a stupid argument. Maybe a poor choice of words... shall we say an argument he disagrees with. I can understand GOB's frustration with that particular argument, but I don't think meant it as an attack.


----------



## kcowan

Apple's moats
and the role of MS in their future.


----------



## indexxx

markets today- ouch.


----------



## sam

bought some shares @ 610 today .


----------



## Lephturn

Nice sam - I was on the trigger there but I did not like the action into the close. I wanted to see some buying at the end but it went down at the end of the day.


----------



## ddkay

eh I hope it doesn't fall much more, I want to see 1000 but if weakness persists I gotta cut it loose to protect my gains and re-enter some other time.. I read even tough there is a ~3-4 week supply shortage for the iPhone 5, carriers are selling iPhone 4/4S instead, as if consumers don't know the difference.. strange.


----------



## thenegotiator

question for GOB.
as u know we have options expiring a day after news release for aapl.
they run every other 7 days anyway.
not on a monthly basis.
i am sure u know that right?
in ur honest opinion do u think they beat the street this time?
i believe the EPS is around 8.93?
TIA
by the way
GL in ur trades


----------



## indexxx

thenegotiator said:


> question for GOB.
> as u know we have options expiring a day after news release for aapl.
> they run every other 7 days anyway.
> not on a monthly basis.
> i am sure u know that right?
> in ur honest opinion do u think they beat the street this time?
> i believe the EPS is around 8.93?
> TIA
> by the way
> GL in ur trades


GOB has left the building... he has decided not to take further part in this thread, but has invited PMs from those who want to contact him


----------



## PMREdmonton

I still think Apple is very strong and fairly valued. However, the big gains seem to come once it is close to touching its 200-day moving average. It moved up so aggressively earlier this year that it has been way above that level for awhile. I still believe 550-575 is a good entry point for the stock.

I still do believe that once Iphone5 release is done with that this company will begin to rapidly decline in their selling margins for smart phones. I know many people who are upset with the quality of their products and upset about how little control they have over their electronics. My wife was practically pulling out her hair about how to remove some of the itunes from her iphone earlier today and I told her how easy and intuitive it is on my Galaxy. She will be going into the Apple store for help and this will be about the 6th trip for various issues she has run into. Having said that, I think the stock has one more leg up on the new iphone 5 initial sales which will surprise to the upside and give a big earnings kick to the next earnings period (first one in 2013). Then again, I think they have low-hanging fruit with last year's Q3 because iphone 4 sales were poor and 4S had not yet been released.

I still think I may play this one with options but will wait for a better price to enter - I want more fear out there about earnings.


----------



## brad

Hah, I was right about the new iMacs (not a hard guess, of course), also new Mac Mini, new 13" MacBook Pro (their most popular laptop), and of course the new smaller iPad (50% lighter) plus a new fourth-generation full-size iPad. It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts, and then how consumers react, which will likely be two very different reactions ;-)


----------



## brad

Note that at $329, the base mini iPad is still going to be more expensive than Android and Amazon competitors. On the other hand it's lighter and thinner than the Nexus 7 and has a better thought-out aspect ratio, much better build quality and materials, and real tablet apps (not stretched phone apps).


----------



## Sampson

mini iPad's pricing not interesting enough for me. Lets see what the next iteration of Nexus will be like. iMacs look nice though.


----------



## ddkay

Woohoo! Mac Mini! waited forever for this


----------



## brad

ddkay said:


> Woohoo! Mac Mini! waited forever for this


Well, not really "forever." The Mac Mini was last updated in July 2011, just a little over one year ago. The iMac has lingered a bit longer without an update, but the new version is dramatically different from the May 2011 model: much thinner screen, lighter, anti-glare, more powerful, faster, option of fusion drive, etc.; possibly the only downside is that there's no built-in optical drive, but it's simple enough to get the external SuperDrive for that. It looks like a great machine; a lot of people are using iMacs professionally now for graphic design, photography, etc.


----------



## ddkay

They were both a bit overdue 

The hybrid fusion drives are a very cool idea (why didn't anyone think of this before?!). 128GB SSD built onto a 1TB spinning disk. There's still a huge premium on factory installed add-ons, but people will definitely pay, the base prices are super affordable


----------



## andrewf

Funny, some of the rumours yesterday was for the base model to be priced at $250, which sounded pretty aggressive pricing to me for a device that cost ~$210 to put together.

It seems to me Apple released the iPad mini because there was some traction with 7 inch Android devices. Not sure who the target market is for this, beyond people who would have otherwise bought iPads. It is substantially more expensive than Nexus 7, not to mention the $99 tablet Google is rumoured to be releasing soon.

Good for shareholders that Apple didn't try to compete on price. Accepting low margins on a 7 inch device that will cannibalize a large % of sales from various 10 inch iPads was not a good plan.


----------



## andrewf

ddkay said:


> They were both a bit overdue
> 
> The hybrid fusion drives are a very cool idea (why didn't anyone think of this before?!). 128GB SSD built onto a 1TB spinning disk. There's still a huge premium on factory installed add-ons, but people will definitely pay, the base prices are super affordable


These have been around for ages. My 5 year old dell had one (admittedly, not with 128 gb of solid state memory, but enough to run a lite media player OS).


----------



## AnimeEd

ddkay said:


> They were both a bit overdue
> 
> The hybrid fusion drives are a very cool idea (why didn't anyone think of this before?!). 128GB SSD built onto a 1TB spinning disk. There's still a huge premium on factory installed add-ons, but people will definitely pay, the base prices are super affordable



Seagate has been pushing that forever. I'm pretty sure that is what Apple is using, there are not many players in the HD market.

http://www.seagate.com/internal-hard-drives/solid-state-hybrid/momentus-xt-hybrid/


----------



## thenegotiator

indexxx said:


> GOB has left the building... he has decided not to take further part in this thread, but has invited PMs from those who want to contact him


GOB
do not leave the building man.
If AAPl beats the estimates on thursday it will just fly man.
i consider a consolidation on the price.
come back man.
cheers.


----------



## ddkay

LOL!! I've been on Intel SSDs since 2008 and haven't purchased a mechanical drives since so I didn't even know this was a thing!


----------



## Dibs

andrewf said:


> Funny, some of the rumours yesterday was for the base model to be priced at $250, which sounded pretty aggressive pricing to me for a device that cost ~$210 to put together.
> 
> It seems to me Apple released the iPad mini because there was some traction with 7 inch Android devices. Not sure who the target market is for this, beyond people who would have otherwise bought iPads. It is substantially more expensive than Nexus 7, not to mention the $99 tablet Google is rumoured to be releasing soon.
> 
> Good for shareholders that Apple didn't try to compete on price. Accepting low margins on a 7 inch device that will cannibalize a large % of sales from various 10 inch iPads was not a good plan.


Many people seem to think it is unreasonable to sell the iPad mini starting at $329 but I think they priced it just right. First, as you said, this product will cannibalize iPad sales and Apple couldn't accept a lower profit margin on the iPad mini. Second, the iPod Touch is selling for $299. I know that the market for the iPod Touch is small compared to tablets, but there was no way Apple could sell their iPad mini for less than than the iPod Touch.

The target market for the iPad mini does go beyond those who would have otherwise bought an iPad. There are those who have not bought an iPad because of the price, now they have something cheaper to consider. Apple will likely capture more of that market. For example, I can see parents who are glad to have a cheaper iPad that they can buy for their kids. 

While their competitors have to get by on razorthin margins, Apple puts a premium to their products and end up selling more. 

Apple's marketing chief Phil Schiller says it best, as quoted by Reuters:


> "The iPad is far and away the most successful product in its category. The most affordable product we've made so far was $399 and people were choosing that over those devices," Schiller said.
> 
> "And now you can get a device that's even more affordable at $329 in this great new form, and I think a lot of customers are going to be very excited about that," Schiller said.


----------



## andrewf

^Yes, it makes Apple more accessible for people who want to buy into the brand and the platform, not necessarily someone who is looking for a tablet. These people probably would not buy any other tablet because they're not really shopping for tablets, they're shopping for Apple (which is about brand, not device).

On the other hand, this is a trade-off. The $ margin on an iPad mini is lower than for other iPads. There has to be enough net unit growth to make up for the cannibalization at a higher $ margin/unit. I think there probably will be, but I see this device as competing with iPad 2 or 3 more than Nexus 7. Nexus 7 will dominate among those who want an inexpensive, good quality tablet experience and aren't too hung up on brand or the Apple platform (does it let me watch youtube, let me read email or ebooks, browse the web, play games, etc.).


----------



## ddkay

Ouch


----------



## andrewf

It's not that bad, is it?


----------



## Lephturn

No it was not that bad. In fact it was a top line beat and only an $ 0.08 miss on EPS - and I should add it was a miss only on Wall Street's estimates, not Apples.

Getting beaten down today though - we'll see how it goes.


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

Are we looking at a 200 MA bounce around $585?


----------



## PMREdmonton

I think there is a reasonable chance that the stock retreats a bit more than usual and may even go below the 200 day moving average because of how large this last up-move was. It went all the way from 360 to close to 700 which is impressive as a double but even more impressive if you think about adding around $350M of market cap without innovating a single new product - only updates to old products got it there. So they went from one XOM to the size of near two XOMs within a year which is truly astounding growth. Now to me the history of the markets is one of mean regression or the bigger they are the harder they fall. The real question is when Apple will truly falter and what will cause that fall. I think it will the same as always - lack of innovation and hubris will be their undoing and we have definitely seen a fair bit of this out of them the last two years so all the seeds are in place.

Apple typically has bottomed later in the year around late November or so but I don't know if it will happen again this year. So I still do wonder if there may be some more room down. On the other hand, I do think this next quarter may be the last true blowout they ever deliver so it'd be nice to enter in the basement and then jump off a couple of weeks after the next earnings once the market has digested all the iphones, imacs, ipods, ipad and ipad minis that flew off the shelves in the Christmas 2012 season as many products were updated (or released denovo) for this time slot. This should sling shot them up to 800 or so I figure. At that point, they become a very good short opportunity for those with brass ones.

Anywho, it'll be interesting to see how it all goes down.


----------



## avrex

Back on March 2012, I exited my AAPL position @ 592.00, to take my profits and move my money to other stocks that I felt had better value.
I did that, and now, eight months later, *I'm back.*

Today, I bought AAPL (actually an AAPL call) 10 minutes before the closing bell with the stock as @ 575.70.

Why the drop today. 
Do those technical guys get that scared when it crosses that 'magical' 200 day moving average?


----------



## andrewf

I'm a little surprised that the stock has moved down this far. Forward P/E is getting pretty low. Maybe Mr Market knows something about Apple's future profitability that I don't.


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

avrex said:


> Why the drop today.
> Do those technical guys get that scared when it crosses that 'magical' 200 day moving average?


lol yes they do, because we're all looking at it. Everyone under the sun knows the number so odds are decent that they'll run it. This securities trading thing is the best game under the sun. I guess we need the break but i do miss it on weekends.


----------



## andrewf

So, Apple's marketshare in smart phones is down to sub 15% as of Q3. Android is running at 75%...

http://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...d-Marks-Fourth-Anniversary-Launch-75.0-Market


----------



## thenegotiator

andrewf said:


> I'm a little surprised that the stock has moved down this far. Forward P/E is getting pretty low. Maybe Mr Market knows something about Apple's future profitability that I don't.


why are you so surprised?
u are trading below the 200 dma and u are oversold.
u thought the jump from 700 to 1000 bux would just magically happen?
i do not get it.
the same analysts calling for 1000 bux were the ones selling it.
why would AAPL atm be valued at 700 bux or more?


----------



## andrewf

Fundamentally, Apple is not too expensive, unless you think their profits/margins are going to fall over the medium term. I happen to think Apple is at risk in this regard. Google is really grinding away at Apple with Android in general, and their Nexus line in particular. The new Nexus 4 retailing for $300 is pretty crazy when you consider iPhones run up to $900. Sure, some of that is hidden from consumers in carrier subsidies, but how sustainable is that? Apple has to accept lower margins in tablets where there are no carrier subsidies. And the Nexus tablets are way cheaper than their Apple competition. How long will that be sustained before their market share shrivels away to nothing?


----------



## thenegotiator

if ur comment was towards my comment Andrew, technically speaking i cannot say much about the technical aspects of AAPL.
i am an energy trader venturing in the tech arena.
GOB is the knowledgeable guy on AAPL.
from a trader perspective and based solely on the concentration of shares among institutions and due to the last earnings release which was just trailing estimates , i believe that fund managers are lighting up on AAPL.
I still believe that AAPl is a solid company but it will lose ground in the mkt.
if u have not noticed the mkt is being very fierce in regards to earnings.
they just can't miss the analysts estimates.
i personally hate analysts .
GL anyway if ur holding


----------



## ddkay

This may be it. I think Nexus 4 may be the iPhone killer. I'm impressed with the build quality, specs and even more impressed with the price. Every review ends with "it doesn't have LTE", that's true, that might effect North American sales (certainly mine), but the rest of the world haven't upgraded their networks yet so they won't care about that at least for another few years. The iPhone 5 has LTE but its not Band 7, so incompatible in Western Europe http://www.apple.com/iphone/LTE/. There's so many annoying intricacies with next generation but it is lovely to use if you have it.

I'm out Apple after I watched my gains fall from 20% to 3%. I locked in 3%. Watching closely for a possible re-entry but I have other places to put my money to work in the meantime.


----------



## Spudd

Yeah, I had bought in at 564 in April, wish I'd sold at 700 but I sold at 601.40 for a 6% gain. I haven't done anything with the money yet, might buy back in if it starts looking upward trending again. I heard rumors that the quarterly filing contained clues that the next quarter will be a blowout.


----------



## Jaberwock

Apple is facing stiff competition from Korean and Chinese manufacturers. As it becomes harder to differentiate between competing products, price will become the driving factor in consumer choice. The high profit margins that Apple has enjoyed in the past will be eroded. Manufacturers will not be able to get $500 for a cell phone that costs about $100 to make.

Apple's market share is declining

We have seen the peak on this one, it may not decline as spectacularly as RIM, but it will not see $700 again


----------



## andrewf

^I'm not convinced that Apple's share price has peaked. Maybe in 18 months or so... I see no indication that Apple is going to be able to create a new market that they can dominate. Their share in phones and tablets is going to get crushed down to nothing over the next few years.


----------



## PMREdmonton

I still think there may be one more set of blowout earnings for the next quarter. I think people are counting them out because they see the competition closing in on them but Apple still has legions of dedicated fanboys who think Apple is the best and are willing to constantly upgrade their systems. However, now that co-workers can pay less for a better and cooler product they will feel crushed. That won't affect this earnings season, though. These effects likely won't show up for at least another quarter and the market will react to blowout earnings from Iphone5, ipad mini, ipad4 and a new set of macs all on the market in the same quarter. This could really launch them back up to 800 or so, I think.

Given the substantial downside and the ongoing pessimism, I'd let this one fall for another couple of weeks until all the hype comes from people trying to get their Christmas Apple orders filled which will start a reversal in the stock.

I'd ideally be looking for the stock to drop to 550 and then buy some calls at 600 about a month after next earnings season. This way the downside is limited to the amount of the call but if the stock blows up like it did last year there could be a huge upside.

Historically Apple's stock is at its weakest in late November and I can see that trade setting up again this year.


----------



## Uranium101

For those people think that Nexus 4 is iPhone killer, think again.
It's combined with LG lol. I have not used LG phones before, but according to some friends, LG's phones are of low quality, hence the super discounted prices.

The only good things about Apple products are:
1) good build quality
2) good design
3) physically attractive (girls love it lol)
4) good looking user interface
5) good apps always come to Apple first

bad things about Apple products:
1) not flexible even after jail break. without jail breaking, iPhone is nothing
2) annoying password tempts and security confirmations
3) Low on features
4) expensive apps, some apps costs $0 at Android, but costs money at App store

In conclusion, Apple products are just marketing backed by their strong history.
Either that is sustainable or not is yet to be seem.

Senior employees at Apple are getting out of control after Steve Job's death.
I hope they would get back to innovating instead of office politicking.

I am not a fan of Apple, and I don't own any Apple products currently. I owned them before, but then realized they are too rich for my blood.
If you have used an Android phone before, and you want to try iPhone, don't even bother. Unless you like physical appearances both outside and inside the phone.


----------



## thenegotiator

GOB said:


> I didn't call anybody stupid, I called the argument stupid. And it is, and I explained why. I haven't seen any counter to that. Whatever, I'll leave.
> 
> T.Gal - I do own Apple. So please forgive me for getting sick of tiresome, meaningless arguments that are rehashed over and over again. Sorry if I don't just let those pass by buy I consider that a disservice to anyone who reads them.
> 
> I'm done contributing to this thread and having to wade through garbage and then get chastised for it. You all have fun.
> 
> Anyone who wants to know my views in future - feel free to PM.





GOB said:


> I agree that $650 would be a great entry level if we get there. It would be an 8% drop from the highs, and there are various technical support levels right around there. I'm not fully confident it won't break that but regardless, it would be a great time to get in going into the biggest product launch in consumer electronics history.
> 
> PMRE - $575 would be an unbelievable buy. I have trouble believing we'll get there though. Assuming a $60 EPS next year, that would mean the stock is trading at a forward P/E of under 10, and 7.5 if you back out the cash. I don't think one should miss a great opportunity by waiting for levels that are highly unlikely to be hit (but definitely not impossible). A few staggered entry points may be a good way to approach this, instead of "backing up the truck" at a single point.


Gob 
forget about sensitivity and lets talk business here man.
these are a few of ur quotes.
i am going to be bold here.
are u in at this levels?
i am not saying all in.
the chart broke the 200 DMA .
it closed an important gap in the chart.
it is a fact.
another fact is that it is oversold.
but i can expect another low though.
i do not see Rsi convergence yet.
what is it going to be on ur end?
remember that u should consider myself an ignorant on the tech arena.
there is one thing about me though.
i do not care about what people think about myself .
i am a trader.
period.
i am not married to stocks and i cut my losses when needed.
i think that is good enough for being insensitive is it not?
cheers


----------



## andrewf

iPhone still has an advantage in the US: LTE support. LTE is not much of a factor in the rest of the world yet, but whether the difference is real or somewhat imagined, not having LTE will hurt Nexus 4. Of course, costing half what an iPhone does puts an iPhone class device in the hands of a lot more consumers. A bigger problem might be the strange choice of memory options. I can understand offering an 8GB model to stay at a low entry price, but to not offer at least 32 GB seems like a mistake to me. Perhaps a 32 GB model will be released soon after, as was the case with Nexus 7.

In terms of build quality, we'll have to see whether that is an issue for Nexus 4. I don't think Google would have partnered with LG if they were concerned about it.

On Apple's share price: Logically speaking, the share price probably won't fall much further from here. As long as profitability remains strong, it will support the share price. I don't think that will change for a while yet, and I don't think the market is forecasting that yet, either. It just seems strange that Apple has had such a low P/E for a company growing as fast and as profitably as it has over the last 5 or so years.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Might the reason why they don't offer higher amounts of memory on these Nexus phones be that there is a SD card slot available?


----------



## PMREdmonton

The reason that the PEG has been so low, IMO, is the law of large numbers. The market does not expect this kind of growth to persist so they won't offer a high multiple for it. In fact, they seem to predict Apple to have growth lower than that of the market when you look at sometime like EV/EBITDA as Apple has EV of about about 420B and EBITDA of about 59B you see that it only trades at a 7 multiple which is not what you're going to see in a company where growth is expected.

IMO, Apple would do real well just not to lose margin and maintain sales. I suspect they will grow revenues some but at the expense of much lower margins in the future and the share price will come back down to Earth. I can see them in the long-term carrying a value somewhere around other dominant tech companies like IBM, MSFT and Google but a total crash a decade down the line is not out of the question in this space - just look at Sony, Nokia and RIM.


----------



## andrewf

No, Nexus 4 does not have expandable memory.


----------



## thenegotiator

*For Gob*
have not heard from you in regards to my POINTS and questions towards ur posts.
here is what I AM going to do..
Gap is filled.
if 560 area holds I AM GOING LONG.
can't afford to buy much of a 500 bux stock , nevertheless i will hold it for at least 1 year after that.
first tranche 25% of total capital.
come out of the cave Gob.
post ur ideas man.
cheers


----------



## indexxx

thenegotiator said:


> *For Gob*
> have not heard from you in regards to my POINTS and questions towards ur posts.
> here is what I AM going to do..
> Gap is filled.
> if 560 area holds I AM GOING LONG.
> can't afford to buy much of a 500 bux stock , nevertheless i will hold it for at least 1 year after that.
> first tranche 25% of total capital.
> come out of the cave Gob.
> post ur ideas man.
> cheers


Gob has elected not to participate in this thread any longer, although he posted that members can contact him via PM.


----------



## thenegotiator

AAPL said to be exploring a replacement for intel chips for macs.
maybe they will go the AMD waY?
who knows he
cheers.
sold my INTC


thks for reminding me about GOB indexx


----------



## andrewf

I don't think AMD would necessarily benefit. They may use ARM chips. 

As it is, Intel is more focused on servers and low power chips. They do still make chips for high end desktops, and they more or less own the space. AMD is eating their dust.


----------



## thenegotiator

just joking Andrew.
nevertheless would'nt that be an interesting move?
just imagine an announcement by apple planning to use AMD chips lol.
i know intel sold off and i got rid of my shares.
they first selloff and then ask questions.
no mercy whatsoever.
remember that i know nothing about tech stochs technically speaking.
AMD is a great daytrader stock now


----------



## ddkay

This is totally possible, the mass market generally doesn't need high performance hardware. The biggest issue these days is battery life and ARMH can deliver some super efficient chips to target that. When I look at the latest ARM and Tegra products, they have about the same graphics and performance of a Playstation 2. So mobile tech is like 12 years behind.

Hopefully Apple keeps the Mac Mini, Macbook Pro and iMac line on desktop chips. Professionals will continue to need high performance. I can't ever see music and movie studios, engineering and architecture firms rendering projects on ARMH. However, ARM would be very suitable for Air's and those other hipster ultrabooks things.

Over time I can see INTC's business getting more and more marginalized.


----------



## sags

As users of the Iphone 5 start receiving their monthly bills, the complaints about data over usage and the subsequent additional cost, are starting to pile up.

Verizon customers in the US had some problems and Apple have supplied a patch to fix the main problem. There are media reports in the UK of similar problems and Rogers in Canada acknowledge a burgeoning problem and are looking into it.

What I am wondering.............is that for new sales, how much of Apple's......and other manufacturers devices, depend on new apps that are data hogs. Facetime is an app the carriers strongly recommend using only on wifi........as is the GPS function.

A lot of people have small affordable data plans, and one has to wonder why they would continually update to a new device when they can't afford to use the new apps and technology.

In the US, carriers are eliminating unlimited data plans, so data use is going to be more of a concern for some people.

Is this the "dark side" of smartphones and will it affect Apple's ability to push new products out the door in the future?


----------



## andrewf

Yes indeed, that is the question. Why are you buying a $900 phone when you can't afford the data plan?

All that said, I don't think smart phones are going anywhere. If anything, the carriers are going to get a rude awakening. Eliminating unlimited data is a mistake. Something like Wind's model makes more sense: unlimited data, but reserving the right to throttle over 5GB per month. If the carrier has spare capacity in the cell, there is little reason to throttle, but reserving that right makes it easier for the carrier to manage cells that are overburdened, especially when it is a small minority of heavy users.


Apple, Google and others are pushing more cloud-based services. I doubt that will become a fully-realized concept for quite a few years. Data coverage/speed is still too spotty, and without unlimited data, you might be paying a lot for those 'free' cloud services.


----------



## thenegotiator

I am used to buy falling knives.
actually sold one today at loss to reacquire funds for another trade .
nevertheless i can't convince myself of buying AAPl.

so i ask the experts here?

Who sees 520 bux on the screen again?
solid support at 350/400 bux area.
i think we can trade down there , but it may take awhile
we are not too far from 520 inflection point.

do not take this post as an offense .
it is all based on technicals.
the chart is bearish IMO


*(GOB thks for the PM)*


----------



## kcowan

I wonder if this bodes well for RIM with their efficient data model?


----------



## andrewf

Who knows if their new OS will continue that data-efficient model? RIM has been out of the market so long (years--crazy). It's hard to say what they will bring. It really seems like it is getting to be too late for RIM.


----------



## m3s

Apple used to have a hand in designing their own chips before they switched to Intels, but now they are designing their own custom ARMH chips with success for the small devices. Intel still makes the best desktop chips but Apple has pleaded with them for years for many improvements. The best deal for both of them would be for Intel to bend to accommodate Apple, but I wouldn't put it passed them to start designing their own desktop chips instead. Not sure that's really ideal for Apple... Intel just needs to wake up before it's too late


----------



## andrewf

Maybe they could swing a licensing deal to make their own x86 chips, like AMD?


----------



## andrewf

Apple really should think about a buyback at this point.


----------



## Jungle

Or give more of that cash to shareholders.


----------



## ddkay

They should save it for the patent wars! Yikes! 368 million to VirnetX


----------



## andrewf

Share buybacks are a way of returning cash to shareholders. Marginal shareholders sell their shares and everyone else gets a boost in value/EPS.

That patent settlement is not really material.


----------



## Vitalogy80

ddkay said:


> They should save it for the patent wars! Yikes! 368 million to VirnetX


Which is what...0.3% of their free cash?


----------



## PMREdmonton

The rapidity and degree of the fall from its peak is very tempting for a long position right now.

If it breaks 520 maybe the best and least risky way to play it is 575 calls for about a month after next earnings release which I think is going to be a blockbuster. If you miss your call you won't lose much and 1 call would give you some control over 54,000 of Apple stock right now.

EV/EBITDA is serious value right now for a company still showing expansion in revenue and profits.

My fear is the market is taking a very long-term view with expectations of loss of telephone subsidies and loss of margin to maintain sales. My other fear for investing in this stock is they are probably right but I don't know when the public will realize it and whether they will avoid buying in even after a blowout quarter.

Their best bet may be to come a value play in the large cap space and start a dividend around 2.5%. They certainly do have the money in the coffers for it and it will open the stock to a new group of investors. The other thing they can do is do a split 10:1 to bring the stock value down to 54 based on present valuations - this would also likely bring in some new buyers.


----------



## Spudd

Apple already pays a dividend. Yield is around 2% at current price. 

I sold at 601 (happily!) and am watching for a re-entry point.


----------



## andrewf

It seems a little premature for Apple's share price to be pulling a RIMM, NOK, etc. Only thing I can think of is that once it became clear that Obama would win and the changes in the capital gains tax would go through, long term holders are realizing capital gains now rather than over the next few years.


----------



## HaroldCrump

andrewf said:


> It seems a little premature for Apple's share price to be pulling a RIMM, NOK, etc. Only thing I can think of is that once it became clear that Obama would win and the changes in the capital gains tax would go through, long term holders are realizing capital gains now rather than over the next few years.


In addition to that, could it also be the possibility that the Obama administration might come up with creative ways to tax non US earnings of American corporations?
This slide seems to have begun around the time it was reported in the news that Apple paid 1.9% tax on its non US earnings.
The revenue starved US administration is drooling over the cash sitting in corporate balance sheets, and Apple is top #1 on that list.


----------



## andrewf

Obama is still constrained by a Republican House. I think you need to calm down about the election result...


----------



## ddkay

If this sells off again today it will go below 500B market cap, mindboggling how fast money is moving out of this, almost as fast as it went in you could say


----------



## ddkay

Wow not a peep in here in almost a week... this really fall out of favour quick


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

ddkay said:


> Wow not a peep in here in almost a week... this really fall out of favour quick


that might tell you something haha


----------



## Spudd

I'm still watching it for re-entry. But the trend is not good!


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

2 tell you truth if I in love with company and had to own at all costs which I don't, I would add with hedge right here at $530 assuming I scale in with proper sizing to avoid even hedge-sized catastrophe.

For now I am loser of the year down $20/sh and will trade with both hands tied behind my back by not semi-martingale here even once.


----------



## larry81

I just want to step in and say it loudly: fvck apple !!!

Samsung/Google will eat your lunch


----------



## Islenska

Thought Apple was a screaming buy at $560
so what is it now
The story is intact and the blow-out quarter coming

Maybe I'm thinking too much............


----------



## dogcom

I don't know it seems everyone owns 2,3 or 4 of what Apple has so maybe saturation is also setting in on this one.


----------



## Snuff_the_Rooster

I better go out and get my first AAPL product then before my brick-phone from first Wall Street movie dies? 
Xmas coming and I already hear groaning for new landfill at my house. :smilet-digitalpoint

larry81 has spikes on haha.


----------



## ddkay

Mkt cap	486.03B


----------



## Lephturn

Now THAT is a reversal.

When there is blood in the streets....


----------



## dogcom

Lephturn I never really look at this stock so after this reversal post of yours I checked the candle stick chart just for fun. It clearly shows it is hammer time, so we will see if this little piece of TA plays out as bullishly as it looks.


----------



## tombiosis

dogcom said:


> Lephturn I never really look at this stock so after this reversal post of yours I checked the candle stick chart just for fun. It clearly shows it is hammer time, so we will see if this little piece of TA plays out as bullishly as it looks.


I for one would be interested if you could explain this for me...


----------



## dogcom

First Hammer Time comes from this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otCpCn0l4Wo

Then if you look at a candlestick chart of Apple you will see a candle stick that looks like a hammer in the chart over the past week.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The volume under the hammer also shows the reversal.


----------



## Lephturn

Holy crap - are you guys seeing this number from 11:02 today? A $ 606.50 print. Bad data point? I couldn't dig it out of the time and sales data.


----------



## Lephturn

A hammer is a candlestick chart formation normally associated with a reversal. It looks like a hammer - short body with a long bottom tail indicating the open and close were not far apart but during the day (on a daily chart) the stock dropped a long way and then reversed back up above the open.

Hammer


----------



## humble_pie

Lephturn said:


> are you guys seeing this number from 11:02 today? A $ 606.50 print.


no. Bad data as U say.


----------



## thenegotiator

Lephturn said:


> It's a candlestick chart formation normally associated with a reversal. It looks like a hammer - short body with a long bottom tail indicating the open and close were not far apart but during the day (on a daily chart) the stock dropped a long way and then reversed back up above the open.





dogcom said:


> First Hammer Time comes from this.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otCpCn0l4Wo
> 
> Then if you look at a candlestick chart of Apple you will see a candle stick that looks like a hammer in the chart over the past week.
> 
> http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
> 
> The volume under the hammer also shows the reversal.


520 area is an old inflection point area in the chart.
actually the mkt rejected the 505.75 price for the time being.
u have a gap between 530/540.
it has to be closed.
if 520 holds we go higher.
if not it will make a new low.
he what do i know.
i am a closet chartist lol:biggrin:


----------



## leavingfriday

*Good blog post on whether AAPL is a buy sell or hold*

This blog post nails it.


----------



## thenegotiator

and yet the question remains.
who bought the dip and sold this latest rip:chuncky:

please do not tell me that it took a rocket scientist to buy around 520 area and sell it on this bounce.
nothing goes up forever and neither down forever.
buy the dips and sell the rips.
it is that simple .
aapl will be around .
i am sure of that


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> who bought the dip and sold this latest rip:chuncky:


Nearing that $520 again.


----------



## dave2012

Wow! Another brutal day for AAPL. What a crazy crazy market. One of the cheapest companies around selling massive amounts of product and sitting on a huge pile of cash, yet down over 10% just this week, and down over 25% since its high a few months ago.

Does this market even make sense anymore??

With ridiculous volatility like this, who is even going to buy if it went back down to $500 even if its has a cheap PE of just 11 at that point, a 2% dividend and great earnings. After all in this climate it could dip even further the next day.

Just hit $518. Would love to buy some more at this price but I've lost faith in how the markets treat this stock.

Crazy crazy. Great company and I own a nice chunk, however I'll likely wait till the markets smarten up a bit and move a good portion of my position to something less conspicuous, less talked about/trashed by know it all media lol.


----------



## andrewf

Unless you want to sell next week, why does it matter what the price does in the short term? If you're right about the fundamentals of the company, the market will have to reflect that eventually.

If you're looking at 1 week holding period, then the company fundamentals don't really matter. At that point you speculating on essentially random movements in share price.


----------



## dave2012

I am in longer term, but when a solid companies stock has wild swings of 25% you begin to wonder.


----------



## dogcom

Dave2012 the hype of what is to come for future growth is more of a boost for a company then of all the growth that has already been in the past and then having competitors coming up in the future. Looking ahead a few years out will they grow as much and will competitors start taking share. It won't be another RIM, but a few years back RIM would have looked the same as Apple and a lot of money in the bank as well.


----------



## kcowan

Apple has suffered 33% pullbacks in the past. I sold it all at around $75 and bought back half at around $50.

If you believe in the fundamentals, then now is a buying opportunity but be prepared for further pullback.

Eventually either the company fundamentals will change or the nay sayers will be proven wrong.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Nearing that $520 again.


it filled a preexisting gap.
if it bounces sharply higher than u will see higher highs.
unfortunately i believe that we may see the 400 areas.
it may trade sideways for awhile.
fiscall cliff and other issues with aapl itself is deffinitely impairing the company.
at this point it is hard to predict:encouragement:


----------



## larry81

the world biggest stock behave like a penny stock with swing of 6-7% a day

hahaha


----------



## humble_pie

kcowan said:


> Apple has suffered 33% pullbacks in the past. I sold it all at around $75 and bought back half at around $50.



this is such an interesting post, i'd love to ask you - & you may not want to answer, which is fine - whether the aapl shares you hold now are, at least in part, those you had the good fortune to buy at $50 a long time time ago.

if so, what a wonderful story. It will make you the towering dean of aapl holders on this forum, that's for sure.

apart from the daily volatility & the weekly histrionics in aapl, there are those who say the company is going to settle down, in this era of hyper-competition, into just another fine old producer. They say its price chart will smooth out, dividends will appear & sooner or later it will come to resemble microsoft.

but for someone like yourself, ie one of the pioneers who recognized aapl's potential at an early stage, this growing-ever-gentler scenario would be a piece of cake. It would be the best of all possible worlds, would it not.


----------



## kcowan

We bought 600 shares for (adjusted) $8 back in 2001. For us, a full position was $10k so we only took a half measure just to hedge. We had held MS in the 90s and sold it all in around then so we needed some position, and Apple seemed like a safer bet than any others. The we got nervous about its share of our portfolio and sold all (to even out capital gains as we were retired), waited for the pullback and repurchased half. We agreed that we would let it ride until it was time to unload it all.

(When it got to be $700, I expected another pullback, and I see it as a buying opportunity right now. But I am still holding until it is time to unload it all.)

I think Google is a buy but I have enough tech. I might go there when finished with Apple.

I also think we were incredibly lucky. We knew some people who were fiercely loyal to the Apple brand. (A good friend, and my youngest son.) But we knew about the iPod and the music revolution but never anticipated the iPhone back then. We finally bought our first Apple product this year - an iPad for DW.


----------



## humble_pie

do you mind if i mention something, either for yourselves when "finished with Apple" or for your heirs & assigns.

you want to massage the cost base upwards, so that the ultimate disposition will not trigger the most awesomely crippling of capital gains. This is a strategy to follow over several years, not something that can be pulled off in one swoop.

one buys a few shares say 50 or perhaps even 100 at today's prices. This purchase will increase the cost base per share. Fairly quickly, one also sells 50 or 100 sh. Or one can do it the other way around, that is, sell first & then buy. Since the story is one of capital gains only, there is no 30-day wait period. One looks for an opportunity to buy/sell at prices that are slightly beneficial; the goal is not a profitable trade but rather a small raising of the cost base.

the 50 or 100 shares sold do generate a capital gain, but since relatively few shares are involved the gain is not particularly crippling.

the following year, rinse & repeat. And every year thereafter. I usually aim (because of the short options) to keep cost bases somewhere around 25% below market price.

this strategy sometimes requires years to execute, so it's especially suitable for spry young things like yourself ...


----------



## Islenska

Humble----I have been doing the reverse with say Goldman Sachs

Once it was really down in my portfolio, so bought and sold (at small gains) and created a capital loss, going forward they now have

about a 10% gain and hopefully this will increase but I have the losses on the books.

Is there any benefit to this method because I'm taking a risk of catching a falling knife?


----------



## My Own Advisor

@kcowan,

600 AAPL shares @ $8 in 2001 and still holding?

Very, very well done is an understatement.


----------



## humble_pie

advisor he didn't say he holds 600 w cost base of $8. Read the messages again. 

shall we bet ?

i'm saying 300 w cost base of $50.

ladies & gentlemen place your bets ...

(kcowan please don't tell)


----------



## jcgd

From Kcowan's post above I'd have to agree with 300 shares @ $50.


----------



## larry81

down the toilet !


----------



## andrewf

The volatility is getting pretty crazy.


----------



## stockman

I just bought a few shares of Apple today at $514, its hard to say if its going up or down. I am thinking that I might pull out next week depending on how bad it gets, any thoughts on if I should pull out next week if it goes down hard?


----------



## PMREdmonton

This stock is now really starting to get interesting. I've often thought the 200-day moving average should be a powerful floor to this stock. It has now been broken and the stock continues to plummet. The thing that gives me pause with this one as I've always been a bit of a bear is that they should have a blowout quarter with the new iphone, ipad, mini-ipad and a new slate of mac airbooks all out in the same quarter just before Christmas. I think there may be one last hurrah with a big earnings beat that will re-inflate the stock before it becomes a good short. I do wonder if the best way to trade this right now isn't just buying an out of the money call with a strike date just a week or two after the next earnings release.

It'd be great if it would go down to about 480 or so.

The other unusual thing here is the low is being made late in the year.


----------



## dogcom

T.Gal take note of this and of course everyone else.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

This tells me a lot about overbought everyone is in and my S-it doesn't stink.


----------



## Argonaut

My life is being held hostage at gunpoint by my AAPL position, all for chasing premiums. Kind of like chasing women, I suppose.

I don't like the company that much, excepting my iPod that has lasted for 6 years with no problems. But I do agree with PMREdmonton that I think they will blowout the next quarter and save poor souls like me. Incidentally, at the mall in the aforementioned Edmonchuck, the Apple store was insanely busy.

Tim Cook is a crappy CEO. I should have listened to my instincts earlier in this thread when I saw the boring iPhone 5 release as sort of a tipping point.


----------



## thenegotiator

there is nothing unusual with the drop in the stock price.
it gathered too much momentum and was being held by every institution portfolio.
i mean heavily held.
too overwight.
aside from that competition is getting fierce in their segment.
the chart is showing a normal retraction of the stock price.
the company value remains.
it is a great product that they sell and people think and fully believe that SP will just go up.
to me 480 is a given , but we have another gap higher ( i am not going to pinpoint that).
anyone that trades here can see it.
it possibly will trade sideways after that .how long? hard to predict.
strong support at 400 bux level.
till then i will not touch it again.
right now the stock is oversold IMO.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with their products..... for now.
the apple story is immersed in a cultural and idealistic Genius that passed away.
the company was going bankrupt and Steve brought it back to life.
may he rest in peace.
ON the same note my heart and prayers go to all parents that lost their children today in the mass school killings.
may their soul rest in peace.
We are living in a time where sometimes I look around me and see no sense at all in anything.
I will leave it here.

The other unusual thing here is the low is being made late in the year.[/QUOTE]


----------



## humble_pie

Argonaut said:


> My life is being held hostage at gunpoint by my AAPL position, all for chasing premiums. Kind of like chasing women, I suppose.



argo get a grip

.












this garment is presented through the gracieuseté of françois tamarin, master corset-maker in paris, who was just named "meilleur ouvrier de france."

tamarin's elegant corsets, made by hand in his atelier in the rue marcel sembat, paris 18ème, run upwards of $1,000 each. No shop. Clients meet by appointment only. He's booked up for years.

http://www.corset-paris.fr/


----------



## Islenska

Is that a real picture of Argo or if not a sister..............


----------



## Argonaut

Hahaha, I'm pretty much the opposite. Northern European descent male. Guess my hair colour to win 20 points.


----------



## larry81

GOB: Put ALL your savings in APPLE, you CANNOT lose it will ALWAYS GO UP.

Plastic gimmicks marketing is business of the FUTURE

This time its different

Samsung ? Android ? Never heard of that.


----------



## marina628

Well I have a order for 25 shares at $500 for about 2 months ,hoping it gets filled next week.Been selling off some FTS as my cost base on this is under $9 a share (been buying since 1985) and using the funds to buy AAPL .I had 31% of my stock value in FTS so this is why I am selling some off now.I pay my income tax every year on the dividends but still aware of the capital gains I have to pay .


----------



## ddkay

This is untouchable for me until I see MACD turn positive and a golden cross. I moved my Apple gambling money over some Canadain REITs and a momo stock I saw mentioned here NBD.TO (thanks hboy43!) -- already raised sell stops for both twice since October.


----------



## thenegotiator

larry81 said:


> GOB: Put ALL your savings in APPLE, you CANNOT lose it will ALWAYS GO UP.
> 
> Plastic gimmicks marketing is business of the FUTURE
> 
> This time its different
> Samsung ? Android ? Never heard of that.





Is this another sarcastic post against Gob?
If it is not than forgive me.
Gob knows apple by heart.
he is an apple fan.
nothing wrong with his calls.
trading strategies maybe.
why don't u put all ur savings in AAPL?
have you sold Su yet at the all times high and bought back lower?
the high was 35 bux right?
it went to 31 bux area 
there is a gap and is trading sideways.
If ur post was not a sarcastic one against GOB disregard what I said above.


----------



## larry81

Rule #1, dont fall in love with a stock


----------



## liquidfinance

Always stayed away from this stock but had a venture into the Eaton Centre today. Had a look in the Sony Store, around the Microsoft store and then the apple store. Sony very quiet, MSFT not too bad but then it's small with a limited number of products. Although I have to say the new Lumia is a very impressive phone. 

As for the Apple store. Wow! Probably the busiest storing the shopping centre. I don't think they will have much tonworry about for some time to come. It doesn't even matter if the product upgrades fail to be revolutionary. People will be hooked to the eco system and not want to purchase the same apps on an alternative platform. Certainly for a couple of years any anyway. 

From a walk round the Eaton Centre its sell sears, underweight Microsoft and buy Apple. (This is not stock picking advice)

Have a great Christmas all!


----------



## larry81

liquidfinance said:


> Always stayed away from this stock but had a venture into the Eaton Centre today. Had a look in the Sony Store, around the Microsoft store and then the apple store. Sony very quiet, MSFT not too bad but then it's small with a limited number of products. Although I have to say the new Lumia is a very impressive phone.
> 
> As for the Apple store. Wow! Probably the busiest storing the shopping centre. I don't think they will have much tonworry about for some time to come. It doesn't even matter if the product upgrades fail to be revolutionary. People will be hooked to the eco system and not want to purchase the same apps on an alternative platform. Certainly for a couple of years any anyway.
> 
> From a walk round the Eaton Centre its sell sears, underweight Microsoft and buy Apple. (This is not stock picking advice)
> 
> Have a great Christmas all!


oh reallyyyyyyyyyy

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/12/14/a-frigid-launch-for-iphone-5-in-beijing/

At 8 am on Friday, when the store opened to hurrahs from employees, only two consumers stood inside a cordon set up by Apple


----------



## ddkay

There are proposals for new shopping malls around Front & Spadina which suggest the Eaton Centre is at/near maximum capacity. Plus its the holiday season, and North American have always liked Apple (massive carrier subsidies/contracts etc)


----------



## kcowan

What will the naysayers do if Apple has a blow out quarter? I believe that China sales will be the difference maker, if any.


----------



## Toronto.gal

larry81 said:


> Rule #1, dont fall in love with a stock


Larry, don't you love/believe in SU just as much? Did you not lose thousands in unrealized gains? Granted the losses were not realized, but you could have easily doubled your investment in a year, but you did not [according to you], so making fun of others' strategies isn't fair & not why we are here for. Seems that lately, you only show up to tell us when SU [your beloved stock] goes up and when AAPL goes down [but we all read the news here, too]. By the way, have you made money with AAPL since its meteoric rise? Let's see, there were opportunities in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012! 

Did anyone post 'SU down the toilet' when SU went back down to the mid $20's after reaching a high of $37+ in the same year? 

What stock went up nearly 100% in less than a year in 2012, AAPL or SU? And what stock does not come down/correct after huge gains? Remember SU at $47+ in 2011? You were hoping for same this year counting on an Israeli/Iran war, but you see, you also did not calculate/predict well. Nobody has a crystal ball here and we all have winners and losers.

What tech or any other company has not been affected by all the negative economic twisters this year?

Not nice to make fun of someone else's [temporary] losses.

Remember that those who laugh last, laugh best. :tongue-new:


----------



## larry81

margin are going down:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2012/12/walmart-slashes-prices-on-apple-iphone-5-and-ipad/


----------



## Jets99

larry81 said:


> margin are going down:
> 
> http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2012/12/walmart-slashes-prices-on-apple-iphone-5-and-ipad/


Hey larry the Apple store in Winnipeg is hiring. Are you tech savy at all? Perhaps you can make up your losses in SU.

It's the busiest damn store in the city. Can't get near it these days. 

I've been trying to find the ipad mini here. Sold out and demand is huge. Every store I go to tells me when they get stock its gone immediately. Gotta be there when the trucks are unloading. 

I know Apple having supply issues but demand at least in my corner of the world is huge. 

Anyone know if the ipad mini is available anywhere in Toronto ??


----------



## Islenska

I have gone a bit overboard on Apple shares and options recently, when are the quarter results out?
This is a company I always hated (vs Rim) but must believe tax loss selling, the talking heads, momentum, is overdone and you are buying into a false low, the slingshot theory will appear (again).

Argo your hair must be flaming Icelandic red, and Jets----miss the team, saw 2 games last year, return to the ice.....now!


----------



## PMREdmonton

I think Jan 24th is the next earnings release.

One way to play this would be to sell at the money puts and then use the money to buy at the market calls for about two weeks post-call so that the market has some time to digest the results. I think everyone is down on Apple because they are not head and shoulders above everyone else's products anymore. You could argue that they are now behind the best Android smartphones and only have a slim lead in the tablet market whereas last year it was a chasm for both products. This usually means margin compression coming and possible loss of market share in North America which is their bread and butter. They don't appear to be making major inroads in China despite finally inking an agreement with China Mobile which is what set loose the expectation of the stock hitting $1000 and market cap reaching $1 trillion.

However, they are still growing so even though margins may be shrinking, overall profitability is growing. They need to try and maintain their edge in dollars generated from iTunes and the App store even if it means giving up some margin for each sale, IMO. 

The market is down as measured by their low P/E, microscopic EV/EBITDA and even an okay dividend yield a shade over 2% now. Any good news will lead to a spike upward and we should get that news on Jan 24th. Anyone who has the stock should continue to hold and anyone who doesn't should consider playing its upside in some manner. I think the calls are too expensive and would rather just buy the stock. I do like in the money puts but would like a bit more pessimism before jumping into the fray. It'd be nice to see the stock at $475-480 and then sell $500 puts for Feb. If you want to be even safer you could then buy some $450 puts to protect the downside.


----------



## larry81

Toronto.gal said:


> Larry, don't you love/believe in SU just as much? Did you not lose thousands in unrealized gains? Granted the losses were not realized, but you could have easily doubled your investment in a year, but you did not [according to you], so making fun of others' strategies isn't fair & not why we are here for. Seems that lately, you only show up to tell us when SU [your beloved stock] goes up and when AAPL goes down [but we all read the news here, too]. By the way, have you made money with AAPL since its meteoric rise? Let's see, there were opportunities in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012!
> 
> Did anyone post 'SU down the toilet' when SU went back down to the mid $20's after reaching a high of $37+ in the same year?
> 
> What stock went up nearly 100% in less than a year in 2012, AAPL or SU? And what stock does not come down/correct after huge gains? Remember SU at $47+ in 2011? You were hoping for same this year counting on an Israeli/Iran war, but you see, you also did not calculate/predict well. Nobody has a crystal ball here and we all have winners and losers.
> 
> What tech or any other company has not been affected by all the negative economic twisters this year?
> 
> Not nice to make fun of someone else's [temporary] losses.
> 
> Remember that those who laugh last, laugh best. :tongue-new:


I just hate Apple and Apple worshipers. Its not a competition, nor a stock picking contest.

When the 'strategy' is "put all your savings in Apple, this time its different" i cant help but make fun of this kind of nonsense.

Samsung/Google will eat the Apple, its just a matter of time.

I like you anyway


----------



## humble_pie

it's interesting to read the 2 comments juxtaposed here - larry81's digs at a longtime aapl supporter & toronto.gal's response, because there's a relationship to the outpouring of grief being expressed over the slaughter of children in other threads.

i remember the 1989 massacre at the Ecole Polytechnique very well, knew some of the students who survived. I remember how they were numbed with horror, drew closer together, received good counselling, rarely discussed the history with outsiders, especially never with voyeuristic outsiders, resolved - every last one of them - to cherish & nurture each other for the rest of their lives.

there is often a bonding among engineering students, but what happened at the Poly then & forever after was stronger than usual. I like to think it spread like ripples from a stone tossed into water.

GOB is a young engineer who exemplifies the best of the tradition. He moved to his AAPL options thread below because some people were harassing him here in the main stock thread.

the options group in this forum is exceptionally rare, perhaps unique in north america, in that it's a group functioning strictly on principles of brother-&-sisterhood. The members cheer each other on, dissect each other's problems with absorbed interest exactly as if all were in the lab together, rejoice in each other's small gains, share & pass around resources freely.

larry81, the way you are going on here is the mark of an older, meaner generation.


----------



## indexxx

Well put HP.


----------



## larry81

I like the way you spin minor forum drama right with an obscure polytechnique massacre reference.

Also thanks for your anectotal evidence regarding 'engineering studends bonding', whatever than mean.


----------



## Islenska

Not sure if I should ask this here, but found PMR post very helpful and wondered if certain stocks are to be avoided with option trading or others like Apple are a natural.
Is there a specific options area or forum on CMF?


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Larry, don't you love/believe in SU just as much? Did you not lose thousands in unrealized gains? Granted the losses were not realized, but you could have easily doubled your investment in a year, but you did not [according to you], so making fun of others' strategies isn't fair & not why we are here for. Seems that lately, you only show up to tell us when SU [your beloved stock] goes up and when AAPL goes down [but we all read the news here, too]. By the way, have you made money with AAPL since its meteoric rise? Let's see, there were opportunities in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012!
> 
> Did anyone post 'SU down the toilet' when SU went back down to the mid $20's after reaching a high of $37+ in the same year?
> 
> What stock went up nearly 100% in less than a year in 2012, AAPL or SU? And what stock does not come down/correct after huge gains? Remember SU at $47+ in 2011? You were hoping for same this year counting on an Israeli/Iran war, but you see, you also did not calculate/predict well. Nobody has a crystal ball here and we all have winners and losers.
> 
> What tech or any other company has not been affected by all the negative economic twisters this year?
> 
> Not nice to make fun of someone else's [temporary] losses.
> 
> Remember that those who laugh last, laugh best. :tongue-new:


very very well said:encouragement:


----------



## Islenska

Just announced Apple sold 2M iphone-5s in 3 days, not sure what the futures are trading at.

The other day analyst's were moaning of very little buzz in China,some neck, some chicken.


----------



## ddkay

Apple Stock Slide Endangers $241 Million of Structured Notes :hopelessness:


----------



## thenegotiator

humble_pie said:


> it's interesting to read the 2 comments juxtaposed here - larry81's digs at a longtime aapl supporter & toronto.gal's response, because there's a relationship to the outpouring of grief being expressed over the slaughter of children in other threads.
> 
> i remember the 1989 massacre at the Ecole Polytechnique very well, knew some of the students who survived. I remember how they were numbed with horror, drew closer together, received good counselling, rarely discussed the history with outsiders, especially never with voyeuristic outsiders, resolved - every last one of them - to cherish & nurture each other for the rest of their lives.
> 
> there is often a bonding among engineering students, but what happened at the Poly then & forever after was stronger than usual. I like to think it spread like ripples from a stone tossed into water.
> 
> GOB is a young engineer who exemplifies the best of the tradition. He moved to his AAPL options thread below because some people were harassing him here in the main stock thread.
> 
> the options group in this forum is exceptionally rare, perhaps unique in north america, in that it's a group functioning strictly on principles of brother-&-sisterhood. The members cheer each other on, dissect each other's problems with absorbed interest exactly as if all were in the lab together, rejoice in each other's small gains, share & pass around resources freely.
> 
> larry81, the way you are going on here is the mark of an older, meaner generation.


+1


----------



## thenegotiator

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...igroup-sends-asian-suppliers-shares-down.html


we still have a gap to be filled though.
it will get filled one way or another.
GOB .
it is time for you to come back to the thread.
do not give up in what you believe but trade accordingly.
you know the product better than anyone else on this forum.
cheers


----------



## kcowan

Citi downgrade from $675 to $575 today.


----------



## Lephturn

I am actually liking the downgrades... once the expectations have been re-set lower we can see some recovery.

I am surprised it's still getting hit this late in Dec. but we'll see how today plays out. If it can't hold $500 this will get very ugly.


----------



## PMREdmonton

I think there is very limited downside at this price point.

No problem with backing up the truck soon but I am still hoping for about 480. From there I'll probably play it with in the money puts for Feb if we can get it. I might be talking about 500 strike point as should get about 10% return to hold for 2 months. Could do a couple of puts and control 100 000 of stock that way.


----------



## andrewf

What is their justification for lowering their price target?

I can't see anything in the fundamentals that should justify it. Just a change in sentiment?

The only medium-term storm cloud is Android becoming dominant in terms of marketshare. Things like the maps debacle are just moderate PR problems, and only become worrying if they represent part of a trend of questionable business decisions.


----------



## humble_pie

PMREdmonton said:


> ... I'll probably play it with in the money puts for Feb if we can get it. I might be talking about 500 strike point ... Could do a couple of puts



like i say, doc, option trades require torrents of quote info, extremely close attention, frequent calculations & constant contact with the broker.

whatever are they thinking of in edmonton, allowing a doc with flapping parkinson thumbs & a mobile device out on the clinic floor w the patients ...


----------



## underemployedactor

It seems Paul Mcwilliams is now weighing in negatively which is never a good sign for APPL SP.


----------



## thenegotiator

PMREdmonton said:


> I think there is very limited downside at this price point.
> 
> No problem with backing up the truck soon but I am still hoping for about 480. From there I'll probably play it with in the money puts for Feb if we can get it. I might be talking about 500 strike point as should get about 10% return to hold for 2 months. Could do a couple of puts and control 100 000 of stock that way.


I think u are wrong.
it may trade sideways but most likely it will go lower.
noone can predict.
the stock is being rebalanced by the institutions


----------



## thenegotiator

2 million iphones sold in 3 days in China.
3 friggin days.
this is the problem here.
people chased away a very well versed guy in AAPL.
Why?
Why is it that people chase knowledgeable guys ?
so what if Gob made a few wrong assumptions?
but the rise of AAPL was meteoric as T.gal mentioned.
I am completely illiterate in tech stocks and the only way for me to learn about them is to hear good comments from people like GOB.

i would be very happy if GOB came back and the mods should contain the malicious comments against him.


----------



## kcowan

andrewf said:


> The only medium-term storm cloud is Android becoming dominant in terms of marketshare. Things like the maps debacle are just moderate PR problems, and only become worrying if they represent part of a trend of questionable business decisions.


The positive spin to the maps issue is that all those reluctant to upgrade can now do so safely...


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> the stock is being rebalanced by the institutions


And those who only invest in stocks that pay a dividend [like Mr. Wonderful K.O'Leary], are just beginning to pay attention to it now [after the nice drop in price].


----------



## andrewf

^ Indeed. Where it is valued now suggests to me that the market as a whole doesn't have a lot of confidence in future cash flows. Otherwise it is ridiculously underpriced. Maybe the market is wrong...


----------



## PMREdmonton

andrewf said:


> ^ Indeed. Where it is valued now suggests to me that the market as a whole doesn't have a lot of confidence in future cash flows. Otherwise it is ridiculously underpriced. Maybe the market is wrong...


I think the main concern is not present growth in earnings and cash flow in the next year or so. I think the problem is the market doubts that Apple can maintain a high margin business in what is the commodity world of consumer electronics. All the competitors have shown that within a few years they have closed the gap with Apple. Many would argue the SG3 surpasses the iPhone 5 in many ways. I know some are saying the same may be true of Windows Phone 8. Lastly, BB10 is coming along and still has the strength of 80 million worldwide users and widespread brand recognition with the most secure, fastest running, multi-tasking and business oriented (will be splittable between highly secured business mode and a more user friendly personal mode) smartphone yet developed. They are the underdogs because of the lag in their innovation cycle due to re-inventing themselves but maybe they have enough to gain traction again in this market.

Anyhow, all that is to say there are viable competitors now and that will put a downward drag on their margins and hence profitability. I have long suspected that there will be a revolt by the telecoms of North America against Apple's demands. Now that there are strong viable alternatives better terms may be negotiated that will squeeze Apple's profitability.

One of the rules in business is that it is very difficult to maintain high margin businesses. You need a very strong moat. I don't think Apple's moat is strong enough to resist the margin erosion in what is quickly becoming a commoditized space. For this reason I usually avoid stocks with P/S > 3 regardless of their profitability as that can be quickly eroded as pricing power diminishes. So Apple is very close to a strong buy now as P/S has inched closer to 3. I suppose you could argue EV/S < 3 and this is more relevant but Apple can't repatriate all their earnings without major tax hits so they shouldn't be given full credit for it from the investor's POV.

Stock was strong today. I am hoping that some will run for the exits on the bounce and give another leg down prior to their next earnings release. It is also possible that those expecting one last bounce off one last blowout quarter have decided to accumulate again.

Interesting stock....


----------



## brad

PMREdmonton said:


> All the competitors have shown that within a few years they have closed the gap with Apple.


True, but it's worth noting that Apple never stands still. Who knows what other fronts they are working on? Apparently they are very actively involved in television now, cooking up something that goes way beyond AppleTV. Apple's pattern is to come out with an innovative new product and then put it on a cycle of incremental improvements. Their best minds are the ones working to create the new products; that has a lot more draw for creative people than trying to keep an established product one step ahead of the competition. As long as they can find new markets for new products, I think they'll continue to grow as a whole even if they lose market share and profit in their cellphone business. 

In the cellphone market I think their only serious competitor is Android. Windows 8 gets great reviews but poor uptake because the ecosystem isn't there and there's already such a huge installed base of iOS and Android users. Why would anyone switch unless there's a truly compelling reason? RIM's delays have most likely ensured its continued decline, because in the meantime iOS and to some extent Android have made inroads into the corporate market where BB has dominated. Even the company I work for, which has contracts with agencies like the Secret Service and the Dept. of Homeland Security, and thus requires highly controlled access to networks, is allowing managers to use iPhones now.


----------



## kcowan

The iTunes/App Store moat is definitely gone. All vendors understand this. Google had demonstrated its market power with the maps app.

I see Android dominating the smartphone segment with Samsung, HTC and Motorola duking it out for market share. iPhone will become a niche player with high margins like they did with PCs. Windows will attempt to gain share from Android as will Blackberry.

(It will be interesting to see what they come up with in TV. With Netflix and Samsung SmartTV, the space is already crowded. My LED TV has WiFi and AllShare.)


----------



## brad

kcowan said:


> The iTunes/App Store moat is definitely gone. All vendors understand this. Google had demonstrated its market power with the maps app.


I'm not sure it's gone, just getting smaller. As far as I know there are still a lot more apps being developed for iOS than for Android. See this article: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2410275,00.asp

Key quote: "We've seen it in study after study: more people own Android phones, but developers prefer iOS. Apple's phones are easier to develop for, with less fragmentation, less piracy, and a higher rate of developers getting paid for their efforts. Apple's curated approach to the App Store may be annoying for many, but it makes browsing and searching a lot easier than Google's perpetually undermonitored Play store. And there's just more there."


----------



## Causalien

HaroldCrump said:


> At some point, there will be iFatigue.
> 
> There are only so many people on the planet that can keep buying iJunk year after year after year.
> 
> The claims you make above remind me of Ozymandias and what happened to him


I was tracing the forum to find a way to contact Quantify-it since he was banned. He appears to be more knowledgeable about options modelling than I am. Which brought me to investigate the whole Apple debate and came upon this unresolved argument that seems to divide the two camp. I am about to go into vacation mode so have some time to write.

The point Harold mentioned here is legit. At one point, Aapl will have absorbed so much capital that each subsequent device purchased contributes less money in percentage compared to the total capital. And the cost of acquiring new customers increases. It's simple exponential law. The total purchasing power remains the same, only the underlying number changes due to inflation and printing. Example, when AAPL manages to be 100%of GDP, we have a problem, it'd mean that we gave up military, food, housing etc.

I have found that that total capital currently to rest around 500 billion for any company.

However, my premise only stands correct when AAPL stands still. I.e. ceases to innovate new products. In order to escape the mathematical certain fate, AAPL must invent a new industry. Like what they did to iPhone and iTunes in the beginning. Without Steve, this risk of stagnation is higher. With Google glass on the horizon, the chance is even higher. Because that will be the next major leap. Aka web 3.0. If AAPL doesn't't have something in the pipeline to counter glass... how long did it take Sony to die? This time is not different, especially in tech. Don't forget that AAPL is a tech company. Innovate or die, this is my conclusion after 15 years in this shithole of a market. Rimm seems to have understood this since they impressed me with bb10, but again, it is not a new sector, it's just the same player fighting for the same pie.


P.S. Can anyone give me a way to contact quantify-it? CC isn't't responding to my request.


----------



## brad

Causalien said:


> Don't forget that AAPL is a tech company.


Apple is also a media company. They produce products, yes, but they are big into media (music, books, TV, movies). If you have a finite pool of customers and the number of new devices bought slows to a crawl, you can still have growth because all those people are buying content from you to put onto those devices. It's a one-stop shop, and it works precisely because it's a one-stop shop -- this is the ecosystem effect that GOB kept talking about. Android's building an ecosystem too, but it's not anywhere near as integrated and consistent across devices as Apple's is. The big thing that Apple understands that Microsoft never understood is that people don't have time to learn how to use their products. They learn as they go along, but if you give all your products a similar interface so you only have to learn once, it's a huge benefit. People will pay a premium for that because their time is valuable; faced with a choice between buying a new type of device (e.g., a tablet) that they already know how to use versus one that has a different interface and apps, most people will choose what they're familiar with.

In that sense, it's not really about innovation, it's about consistency and not rocking the boat too much with major redesigns of the operating system. New features come at a price, because people have to learn how to use them. Apple understands all this, but most people who buy AAPL don't and therefore they get restless when they see what seems like stagnation to them.


----------



## kcowan

brad said:


> ...The big thing that Apple understands that Microsoft never understood is that people don't have time to learn how to use their products. They learn as they go along, but if you give all your products a similar interface so you only have to learn once, it's a huge benefit. People will pay a premium for that because their time is valuable; faced with a choice between buying a new type of device (e.g., a tablet) that they already know how to use versus one that has a different interface and apps, most people will choose what they're familiar with...


While Apple developed their interface on their iPod, most iPhone buyers were new to the space. What Apple had going for it was an intuitive simple interface requiring no learning to use it.

(The Surface seems to violate that rule for MS users.)


----------



## brad

Yes, but now they've effectively set a standard and they're adhering to that standard across all their products. A similar thing happened when Apple set up all the keyboard equivalents (control-X for cut, control-C for copy, control-W to close a window, etc.) and the menu items in the original Mac OS in the 1980s -- it made it much easier to learn how to use new programs because the main interface and controls were familiar. The standardized interface and controls, along with the fact that the computer took on the job of remembering commands instead of the user having to keep them in their head (remember autoexec bat?) is one of the reasons why the early Macs were demonstrated to be more powerful (in terms of user productivity) than DOS machines. But now Apple has taken that standardized interface and controls and spread it across all their products, so if you know how to use one Apple product you already know how to use the rest of them.

Microsoft's trying to do the same thing with Windows 8, to mixed reviews, although I've heard nothing but great things about the new Windows phone.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Wow, is this depressing...going into the largest quarter in history and just not moving at all. What's going on?


----------



## rivet

Just bought some shares at $528, thought it was a low point, but AAPL keeps tanking for no reason even though they are doing very well in sales and profit. 

This is my first attempt to buy individule stock, I'll have to see how does it pan out



Vitalogy80 said:


> Wow, is this depressing...going into the largest quarter in history and just not moving at all. What's going on?


----------



## thenegotiator

u guys really do not think this is going lower.
ok.


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## 1sImage

Wow, I would not buy apple right now. I remember trying to convince all the BB users to switch to apple because it was so much better. Now that the last few BB stragglers have switched.... It's to late, im onto Samsung an so will the rest.

Just releasing the iphone 5, now rumors the 5s will be out in june/july, having the ipad mini tank.
To quick, too soon, too much, toooo tooooo much.

ITS OVER!!!!!


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## kcowan

I expected the pullback to be 1/3 from its previous high before resuming upward growth. That would have been around $470. So the question is: Is the new pullback being buoyed up by the participation of all those dividend funds?

There is a significant difference of opinion by analysts following the stock, and many more analysts than before. This will lead to increased volatility and more interim pullbacks IMHO.


----------



## Toronto.gal

1sImage said:


> 1. To quick, too soon, too much, toooo tooooo much.
> 2. ITS OVER!!!!!


1. Agree completely! 
2. Completely disagree; you're talking about AAPL!


----------



## donald

Forbes had a thought provoking article yesterday-They(the tech writer)was making the case the Iphone coolness factor is done for the youngest demo group.(which are ''trend drivers,though i dont know how important that demo is--might be the least important one)
-They dont want the same phones as there parents and teachers ect(that completely takes the edge off of apple being hip,its not hip anymore because it is way 2 mainstream-who wants to share the same brand as there parents/grandparents ect when your in that demo)
-from a cultural standpoint i couldnt help but think they make a point
Not sure if anybody read it(forbes)but it made a good case.


----------



## Vitalogy80

1sImage said:


> Wow, I would not buy apple right now. I remember trying to convince all the BB users to switch to apple because it was so much better. Now that the last few BB stragglers have switched.... It's to late, im onto Samsung an so will the rest.
> 
> Just releasing the iphone 5, now rumors the 5s will be out in june/july, having the ipad mini tank.
> To quick, too soon, too much, toooo tooooo much.
> 
> ITS OVER!!!!!


Couldn't disagree more...

A) Don't base your opinions on Apple on rumors...they are wrong 99% of the time. How long has Apple TV been rumored? Did Apple say the iPhone 5S is coming out in June/July? If not, don't believe it cause it's most likely wrong. Apple is notorious for being secret about it's future plans...and it's the World's largest and maybe most popular company, so how do you sell newspapers or get hits to your webpage if a company doesn't release a new product more than once a year...you make up rumors about "unnamed sources" that claim Apple is going to release a flying iPig in September and since Apple doesn't comment on rumors, it becomes almost believable.

B) The iPad Mini is tanking? That could be dumbest statement I've heard in a while. Where would you get that from? Have you ever tried one? Maybe you haven't because it's sold out everywhere...though I'm sure it's sold out everywhere because Apple is having a hard time producing them, right? Is that the next rumor you'd like to start??

C) Too much? Samsung released 37 phones in 2012...so Apple releasing 2 in 2013 would be too much, but for Samesung it's OK?


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## 1sImage

Lets agree to disagree, an see whats up with the stock a year from now.

P.S do you own any shares in apple?


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## Vitalogy80

1sImage said:


> Lets agree to disagree, an see whats up with the stock a year from now.
> 
> P.S do you own any shares in apple?


Agree to disagree on what? That the iPad Mini isn't selling well? We don't have to wait until the end of the year, we can wait for 2 weeks when it announces results. I'll take a bet that it sells more than the Playbook, Galaxy Tab 7 or any other 7" Tablet combined this quarter. Hell, it probably sold more in just the last 2 months than all others have combined to sell this year.

Yes, I do own shares in AAPL...because it's the best large Cap growth stock out there right now. I bought in around $300, so even with the drop, I'm still doing fine. No plans to sell yet.


----------



## 1sImage

I just think there played out, all there options are gone. Go bigger, go smaller... whats next a wide version of the mini?
They peeked, end of stort. 
Look at the stock over the last 3 months, 6 even. They went up high but came down hard.

Did you buy the new iphone5? It was a massive disappointment for me, so after 10 days I brought it back an got the note2. 
Apparently so have alot of other people.


----------



## Vitalogy80

1sImage said:


> I just think there played out, all there options are gone. Go bigger, go smaller... whats next a wide version of the mini?
> They peeked, end of stort.
> Look at the stock over the last 3 months, 6 even. They went up high but came down hard.
> 
> Did you buy the new iphone5? It was a massive disappointment for me, so after 10 days I brought it back an got the note2.
> Apparently so have alot of other people.


All of their options are gone? So there are no possible markets that Apple could get into?? Yes, they probably don't need to make a new iPad with the iPad Mini and the normal iPad, but it's not even 3 years old and they've sold 125 Million...do they need to come up with something revolutionary every year?

Apparently a lot of other people have traded in the iPhone 5 for the Galaxy Note 2? As I mentioned, Apple reports results in less than 2 weeks, so I guess we won't know until then, but the Samsung Galaxy Note 2 sold approximately 5 Million in the first 2 months. The iPhone 5 sold that in the first weekend. They're probably going to report sales of around 50 Million iPhones in the last quarter, which would include iPhone 5's, 4S's and 4's. Maybe you don't like the iPhone anymore, but according to surveys, more people are happy with the iPhone than any other Smartphone.

"J.D. Powers’ latest Wireless Smartphone Customer Satisfaction Study shows that iPhone users rate their devices highest among all smartphone users in all possible categories, from performance to physical design to features to ease of operation. In fact, no other smartphone manufacturer even matches Apple’s scores in any of JD Powers’ four criteria"


----------



## Lephturn

Hmmm - nice supply chain rumor bouncing AAPL off of $ 500. Not threatening my 495/490 put spreads so far. I need to look for a ration backspread with a decent price. At this price I want more deltas!


----------



## marina628

WELL I had a order for 12 shares at $515 last week which was filled ,thinking of buying some more for RSP this afternoon


----------



## Addy

Same for Facebook. Not so hip and cool when the parents and grand parents are on it. 




donald said:


> Forbes had a thought provoking article yesterday-They(the tech writer)was making the case the Iphone coolness factor is done for the youngest demo group.(which are ''trend drivers,though i dont know how important that demo is--might be the least important one)
> -They dont want the same phones as there parents and teachers ect(that completely takes the edge off of apple being hip,its not hip anymore because it is way 2 mainstream-who wants to share the same brand as there parents/grandparents ect when your in that demo)
> -from a cultural standpoint i couldnt help but think they make a point
> Not sure if anybody read it(forbes)but it made a good case.


----------



## 1sImage

marina628 said:


> WELL I had a order for 12 shares at $515 last week which was filled ,thinking of buying some more for RSP this afternoon


Good time today, $-17.00 to $503


----------



## Toronto.gal

1sImage said:


> Good time today, $-17.00 to $503


I thought you said it was OVER for AAPL. 

Good time for you today?


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> I thought you said it was OVER for AAPL.
> 
> Good time for you today?


the move is going to be in one direction.....
slowly but surely till the hammer drops


----------



## 1sImage

Toronto.gal said:


> I thought you said it was OVER for AAPL.
> 
> Good time for you today?



No no not for me, for the other guy who just bought in at 515, he was looking to buy more.


----------



## 1sImage

thenegotiator said:


> the move is going to be in one direction.....
> slowly but surely till the hammer drops


Just how heavy is Thors hammer?


----------



## Toronto.gal

1sImage said:


> No no not for me, for the other guy who just bought in at 515, he was looking to buy more.


Yes, I know! I was just teasing you based on your earlier comment that the stock was 'over' IYO.

Marina is a gal.


----------



## namelessone

It looks like the demand is lowered instead of supply not meeting demand。
Apple Cuts Orders for iPhone Parts :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323596204578240440691304344.html


----------



## Vitalogy80

namelessone said:


> It looks like the demand is lowered instead of supply not meeting demand。
> Apple Cuts Orders for iPhone Parts :
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323596204578240440691304344.html


That's a joke...an article about demand issues...it almost sounds like I've heard this story before.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-5...4s-demand-making-apple-rethink-supply-orders/

Oh wow, it's an analyst coming out with weak demand for the iPhone 4S and that Apple was cutting orders for the iPhone 4S in anticipation of a slowdown. Yet immediate after this article came out stating "weak iPhone 4S demand", Apple reported back to back Blowout Earnings and beat expectations for even the most Bullish analyst.

As I said before, unless Apple actually comes out and acknowledges the article or rumor, it's just a rumor and most likely wrong. It's a joke that they can quote "unnamed sources" and cause the stock to lose so many billions of market cap. Wall Street is rigged.


----------



## brad

I think this is one of those cases where the stock is always going to be volatile even if the company's future is solid and there's plenty of room for growth. My view is that even if you cut out the iPhone and iPad entirely, Apple would have a bright future and lots of growth ahead of it. They've only begun. Five years from now we'll probably look back and laugh to think that people assumed Apple's fortunes depended on its phone and tablet lines of business. Those are two arrows in their quiver that happen to have given them huge growth in the past few years, but they know it can't go on forever. Who knows what they're working on next for their other markets, or the new markets that we don't even know about?


----------



## thenegotiator

Vitalogy80 said:


> That's a joke...an article about demand issues...it almost sounds like I've heard this story before.
> 
> http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-5...4s-demand-making-apple-rethink-supply-orders/
> 
> Oh wow, it's an analyst coming out with weak demand for the iPhone 4S and that Apple was cutting orders for the iPhone 4S in anticipation of a slowdown. Yet immediate after this article came out stating "weak iPhone 4S demand", Apple reported back to back Blowout Earnings and beat expectations for even the most Bullish analyst.
> 
> As I said before, unless Apple actually comes out and acknowledges the article or rumor, it's just a rumor and most likely wrong. It's a joke that they can quote "unnamed sources" and cause the stock to lose so many billions of market cap. Wall Street is rigged.


denial is ur worst enemy.
we shall see then.
i do like AAPL though


----------



## Vitalogy80

thenegotiator said:


> denial is ur worst enemy.
> we shall see then.
> i do like AAPL though


So you agree with me, but don't agree with me? Confused...what are you disagreeing with me on that you later agree with? Please what am I in denial about? The fact that unsubstantiated reports come out all the time about Apple and "cuts in production" or "lack of demand" that only later prove to be false.


----------



## thenegotiator

Vitalogy80 said:


> So you agree with me, but don't agree with me? Confused...what are you disagreeing with me on that you later agree with? Please what am I in denial about? The fact that unsubstantiated reports come out all the time about Apple and "cuts in production" or "lack of demand" that only later prove to be false.


agree with ya about the rumours that have to materialize.
disagree with ur analogy that AAPl still is a star.
it is not.
money managers are deleveraging.
and I do firmly believe that if AAPl does not come up with something unique sooner than later their market share will erode.
IMO they peaked in sales volume in the western countries.
they are trying to gain a piece of china.
for their sake i hope they do.
my long term view on the stock is a retracement to lower values.
i do think that AAPl is overvalued.

i am not short AAPl because it is a very expensive stock to short.
i am not a rich man.

this is not a pissing contest by the way.
if it pulls back nicely the money inflow will come.
right now i see an exodus of money from their coffers


----------



## Vitalogy80

thenegotiator said:


> agree with ya about the rumours that have to materialize.
> disagree with ur analogy that AAPl still is a star.
> it is not.
> money managers are deleveraging.
> and I do firmly believe that if AAPl does not come up with something unique sooner than later their market share will erode.
> IMO they peaked in sales volume in the western countries.
> they are trying to gain a piece of china.
> for their sake i hope they do.
> my long term view on the stock is a retracement to lower values.
> i do think that AAPl is overvalued.
> 
> i am not short AAPl because it is a very expensive stock to short.
> i am not a rich man.
> 
> this is not a pissing contest by the way.
> if it pulls back nicely the money inflow will come.
> right now i see an exodus of money from their coffers


I still think AAPL is a great play, it's not going to grow EPS by 100% anymore...that's not possible for a company this size, so I guess I sort of agree with you, though I seem to have a higher value of the company. I actually think it's undervalued...it's trading at a valuation cheaper than Walmart, Coca-Cola and Microsoft. Take Coca-Cola for example...what other markets do they have yet to conquer? Or who's growing faster...Microsoft of Apple? Mac Growth has been gaining on PC for 20 straight quarters...what if they start making serious roads into the Enterprise market? What if they release a TV? 

All I'm saying is that everyone seems to think Apple needs to release some ground breaking product every year or it's not being innovative. They were probably saying the same thing when they released minor itterations of the iPod for 3 or 4 straight years back in the early 2000's, but they still sold a crap load of iPods and made investors a ton of money. It's tough to change the world every year...find me another innovative company that has brought something out as huge as the iPad in the last 3 years. 

As for gaining ground in China, Tim Cook said he expects China to soon overtake the US as their #1 market...I don't think it's crazy to say China and the rest of the developing world is where the growth will come from, if it does. The US/Canada etc are not going to deliver 50% growth for AAPL anymore, it already has too much of the market. But just like Coca Cola, who has a majority of the market, if Apple just holds a significant % of the US Smartphone Market, they'll be making a ton of cash. Just cause the stock is $500, does not imply that the stock is expensive...check out their earnings and Price to Earnings ratio, or their PEG (Price to Earnings for Expected Growth) ratios...it's below almost any market competitor.

It's not a pissing contest, you're right...I'm not saying everyone has to like Apple or buy Apple, this is an investing forum and there are lots of ways to make money. Even though Apple is up like 300% over the past few years, if you had timed it right, you could have made money shorting it as well. I believe though, at these price levels, there is way more upside risk than downside risk.


----------



## kcowan

When the iPod was introduced, it was late to the market crammed with cheap MP3 players. What the pundits failed to account for was the iTunes phenomenon. The iPhone revolutionized the mobile phone industry. Now the use of the device as a phone is incidental. It has become a palm-top information appliance. Sure there are competitiors. Apple has never tried for market share. They always go for profitable growth.

It is ironic that the revolutionary future might be the use of voice to interact with the device. Especially when voice is such a minor use of the iPhone. ("Get me the Australian tennis match" will be fulfilled by giving me the video archive on iTunes that was recorded earlier today.)


----------



## thenegotiator

Vitalogy80 said:


> I still think AAPL is a great play, it's not going to grow EPS by 100% anymore...that's not possible for a company this size, so I guess I sort of agree with you, though I seem to have a higher value of the company. I actually think it's undervalued...it's trading at a valuation cheaper than Walmart, Coca-Cola and Microsoft. Take Coca-Cola for example...what other markets do they have yet to conquer? Or who's growing faster...Microsoft of Apple? Mac Growth has been gaining on PC for 20 straight quarters...what if they start making serious roads into the Enterprise market? What if they release a TV?
> 
> All I'm saying is that everyone seems to think Apple needs to release some ground breaking product every year or it's not being innovative. They were probably saying the same thing when they released minor itterations of the iPod for 3 or 4 straight years back in the early 2000's, but they still sold a crap load of iPods and made investors a ton of money. It's tough to change the world every year...find me another innovative company that has brought something out as huge as the iPad in the last 3 years.
> 
> As for gaining ground in China, Tim Cook said he expects China to soon overtake the US as their #1 market...I don't think it's crazy to say China and the rest of the developing world is where the growth will come from, if it does. The US/Canada etc are not going to deliver 50% growth for AAPL anymore, it already has too much of the market. But just like Coca Cola, who has a majority of the market, if Apple just holds a significant % of the US Smartphone Market, they'll be making a ton of cash. Just cause the stock is $500, does not imply that the stock is expensive...check out their earnings and Price to Earnings ratio, or their PEG (Price to Earnings for Expected Growth) ratios...it's below almost any market competitor.
> 
> It's not a pissing contest, you're right...I'm not saying everyone has to like Apple or buy Apple, this is an investing forum and there are lots of ways to make money. Even though Apple is up like 300% over the past few years, if you had timed it right, you could have made money shorting it as well. I believe though, at these price levels, there is way more upside risk than downside risk.


like i said .
the trend is down .
GL anyway


----------



## namelessone

Apple depends Iphone and Ipad for 80% of its revenue. Some argue oil company depends on one product but oil is essential and non renewable. These two products are great but don't have strong moat. Samsung is winning. RIM and NOKIA are recovering and will take back some of the market shares.Also I can't imagine people buy a new phone every year. You can't compare Apple to Coke.
I am not trying o bash Apple just stating what I see as reality.


----------



## blin10

apple is shooting itself in a leg by not introducing larger screens for their iphone... they should have like 3 different screen sizes to compete, they're not the innovators anymore in cell space... competition caught up and android slowly pulling away with a ton of variety... and don't get me started on itunes, what a mess that is


----------



## gibor365

At what price to APPL?! It becomes dividend stock with yield 2.2%


----------



## indexxx

blin10 said:


> apple is shooting itself in a leg by not introducing larger screens for their iphone... they should have like 3 different screen sizes to compete, they're not the innovators anymore in cell space... competition caught up and android slowly pulling away with a ton of variety... and don't get me started on itunes, what a mess that is


Why do you feel iTunes is a mess? Seems to work great for me.


----------



## Lephturn

blin10 said:


> apple is shooting itself in a leg by not introducing larger screens for their iphone... they should have like 3 different screen sizes to compete, they're not the innovators anymore in cell space... competition caught up and android slowly pulling away with a ton of variety... and don't get me started on itunes, what a mess that is


What's a mess is the fractured disaster that is the Android ecosystem. I work for a software company and we are doing some mobile work - Android is so fragmented it's too expensive to test on let alone develop to. We are going HTML5 anyway, but we already have problems with some Android devices with older browser versions.

I'm not saying AAPL is a superstar stock anymore - one look at the chart will show you the halo has been knocked off of it - but it's fundamentally strong and they still have a great business that is growing well. I'm not blind to the price action, but if and when the chart gives me something bullish I'll be back on board.

The other beauty of AAPL is that when it's in an uptrend it is the best collar candidate I've ever seen. The volatility is priced higher in the calls than the puts when it's rocking to the up side so it's a slam-dunk for a collar if you hold the underlying. If you should get called out of it well just sell put spreads until you can work back into it.


----------



## lonewolf

Rising parabolic arcs that are pointed straight up always end badly for the longs.


----------



## thenegotiator

Lephturn said:


> What's a mess is the fractured disaster that is the Android ecosystem. I work for a software company and we are doing some mobile work - Android is so fragmented it's too expensive to test on let alone develop to. We are going HTML5 anyway, but we already have problems with some Android devices with older browser versions.
> 
> I'm not saying AAPL is a superstar stock anymore - one look at the chart will show you the halo has been knocked off of it - but it's fundamentally strong and they still have a great business that is growing well. I'm not blind to the price action, but if and when the chart gives me something bullish I'll be back on board.
> 
> The other beauty of AAPL is that when it's in an uptrend it is the best collar candidate I've ever seen. The volatility is priced higher in the calls than the puts when it's rocking to the up side so it's a slam-dunk for a collar if you hold the underlying. If you should get called out of it well just sell put spreads until you can work back into it.


i like ur idea.
i may venture that collar trade.
never done it but there is always a first time right?


----------



## Hawkdog

in the globe today:


Cool kids say Apple is done
As Apple shares show signs of weakening, new research shows teens associate the brand with their parents. In other words, Apple’s cool factor is at risk. 
Read more


----------



## brad

I totally believe Apple is done. For now.

Like the Terminator...they'll be back ;-)


----------



## avrex

Apple finishes at exactly $500.00 today.
Hmmm... it was also monthly options expiration date today. 

After the first hour of trading, AAPL was below 500 for almost the whole day. It approached 500 a few times, but always went back down. 
However, with 4 minutes to go, AAPL went above 500 to 500.06. 
Did the big investment banks panic and need to get the price to 500 or below? 
You would need a lot of money to manipulate the price of a big stock like Apple. Or would you? Perhaps bringing the price down by 6 cents wouldn't be that difficult.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, so I'll chalk up this activity as being a coincidence.


----------



## blin10

indexxx said:


> Why do you feel iTunes is a mess? Seems to work great for me.


for me it never worked right, always froze on my 2 pcs running latest everything... you can't have mp3s, it converts to its own format... if you connect your device with another computer it will erase all your library...


----------



## brad

blin10 said:


> for me it never worked right, always froze on my 2 pcs running latest everything... you can't have mp3s, it converts to its own format... if you connect your device with another computer it will erase all your library...


I think some of this is a user problem, not a software problem. It's a cinch to have iTunes save everything as MP3s at conversion or post conversion, it's in the settings. I'd say half my iTunes library is MP3. It can read and save in a variety of formats. Not sure about the freezing problem; we have iTunes here on 2 PCs as well as my Mac and we've never had a problem in either XP or Windows 7.


----------



## donald

I would'nt put it past goldman(munipulating)They just reported huge profits.I own the stock-in the last 4 mths it's been raising faster(or close)to appl rise last year.....anybody seen the stock chart on goldman lately?It's crazy(rode apple up and then rode it down)


----------



## andrewf

Brad, I've heard of several people who've had their devices wiped by iTunes syncing. Seems like a UI issue to me. Clearly it's not doing a good job of warning users that they are about to lose all their data.


----------



## Jungle

Watching the US bank earnings, including recent Goldman Sachs, they are beating estimates handidly and imporving guidance. They are saying on BNN they may not be too far off to reaching potential again before everything blew up. Stocks have priced that in.

As for Apple, I never did get in and made a promise to myself to stop buying stocks. Just too hard to win all the time. I would have lost on this one right now. We'll see when they report earnings.


----------



## thompsg4416

Earnings due out on Wed.. should be a wild ride.


----------



## Vitalogy80

thompsg4416 said:


> Earnings due out on Wed.. should be a wild ride.


Verizon came out with earnings today and they had a 44% from last year on iPhone sales, which is significantly above projections...just wait for AAPL to announce +50 Million iPhones sold during the last quarter. If you are short AAPL, it's probably time to get out and take your gains.


----------



## brad

From the Macalope: http://www.macworld.com/article/2025369/the-macalope-daily-swallowed-whole.html

This one's the best: "If anyone’s the leader in the smartphone market now, it has to be Samsung, which just announced that the Galaxy S3 has sold 40 million units in 7 months. In 2 years and 7 months since its launch, the Galaxy S line has sold over 100 million. Wow." -- Larry Seltzer, Byte magazine.

Macalope's comment: "Larry, when coming up with that statistic, did you pause to think for even one second how many iPhones Apple’s sold over that period? Because it’s more than twice that. FYI."


----------



## Spudd

Byte Magazine still exists? My mom subscribed to that back in the 80s and it was as thick as Vogue.

I bought some today on a whim (and completely against my new years resolution/investing policy). But I couldn't resist.


----------



## thompsg4416

Vitalogy80 said:


> If you are short AAPL, it's probably time to get out and take your gains.


My position is so small that I'll ride it out into the sunshine. My wife will be happy to hear about something she remotely understands


----------



## indexxx

10 minutes until market close- here we go... hoping for good things from Cupertino


----------



## gibor365

What time will be announcment?


----------



## brad

They're set to begin the call at 2pm Pacific time, which is 5pm Eastern time.

There will be a live blog here if you want to follow along:

http://www.macworld.com/article/2025948/live-blog-apples-2013-first-quarter-earnings-call.html


----------



## andrewf

Revenue below expectations, stock down by 6% after market...


----------



## Homerhomer

down about 10% now, this maybe in low 400 in the next few weeks, at which point it maybe good for a trade.


----------



## brad

It's always amazing to see how the market reacts to this stuff. Apple reported its highest-ever quarterly revenue ($54.5 billion) and highest-ever quarterly net profit ($13.1 billion, or $13.81 per diluted share), sold a record 47.8 million iPhones in the quarter, along with a record 22.9 million iPads and 4.1 million Macs, but the stock gets hammered because results were "below expectations." ;-)


----------



## supperfly17

Homerhomer said:


> down about 10% now, this maybe in low 400 in the next few weeks, at which point it maybe good for a trade.


Yeah a big ouch, moving so fast

After Hours: 461.22-52.79‎ (-10.27%‎)


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Sold 1/3 of my shares today and tried to sell the rest at 515 but it hit 514.99!!!!!!! Damn it!


----------



## 1sImage

supperfly17 said:


> Yeah a big ouch, moving so fast
> 
> After Hours: 461.22-52.79‎ (-10.27%‎)


Imagine if you own a 1000 shares?


----------



## indexxx

brad said:


> It's always amazing to see how the market reacts to this stuff. Apple reported its highest-ever quarterly revenue ($54.5 billion) and highest-ever quarterly net profit ($13.1 billion, or $13.81 per diluted share), sold a record 47.8 million iPhones in the quarter, along with a record 22.9 million iPads and 4.1 million Macs, but the stock gets hammered because results were "below expectations." ;-)


Ya it's ridiculous... god, an extra 10% off the latest. unbelievable.


----------



## none

But apple was cheap at $700!!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ound-700-apple-stock-is-cheap/article4550143/


----------



## Toronto.gal

Cheap or not, AAPL was at its all time high at $700+, and a fact that should not easily have been ignored. 

I never buy at 52 week highs [except perhaps with dividends], let along all time highs, no matter the valuation.

I'm glad for the drop, even when I own shares. I said a few days ago that I would average up if the stock dropped an additional 10%/15% when the stock was around $500, so it's getting pretty close [$458 atm].

*indexxx:* it has happened time and time again with various stocks, so we should not be surprised anymore.


----------



## jcgd

Word in the lunch room is that Samsung takes the cake. I know it's not numbers from analyists but when you have 30 guys and only four want to keep their iPhones... well, I'm not about to buy in just in case this is the beginning of the end. Unless market share starts increasing or there is some other catalyst I think I'll watch from a distance. I do think Apple is seriously cheap, but if you forget your feelings for a minute and look at the whole picture, this could be the price of the future.


----------



## andrewf

Brad, current results are certainly good. The market's reaction is about future trends. The market seems to be pricing in some serious margin and/or sales declines. Maybe Mr Market is wrong. If it is, AAPL is pretty cheap.


----------



## gibor365

1sImage said:


> Imagine if you own a 1000 shares?


Good thing that I own now only 5 shares


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> Brad, current results are certainly good. The market's reaction is about future trends. The market seems to be pricing in some serious margin and/or sales declines. Maybe Mr Market is wrong. If it is, AAPL is pretty cheap.


That makes sense. BTW, I'm just an interested observer in all this, as I don't own any AAPL shares, at least not directly (I'm pretty sure my U.S. ETF has some but haven't ever bothered to check).


----------



## riseofamillionaire

If your an 'investor' and bought over 500 you deserve to get crushed. 20-30% of market cap in cash and not growing, not to mention ipod and macs slow/no growth. Jim Cramer been on this thing since $150, that should throw up some red flags. Too over followed, over hyped. Classic lessons preached in every relevant investing book since 1900.


----------



## jcgd

riseofamillionaire said:


> If your an 'investor' and bought over 500 you deserve to get crushed. 20-30% of market cap in cash and not growing, not to mention ipod and macs slow/no growth. Jim Cramer been on this thing since $150, that should throw up some red flags. Too over followed, over hyped. Classic lessons preached in every relevant investing book since 1900.


Dude. This time is different.


----------



## riseofamillionaire

jcgd said:


> Dude. This time is different.


Sarcasm? lol You never know tho


----------



## doctrine

Sure enough to short the stock?


----------



## marina628

relax it will go to $900 next year :stupid:


----------



## riseofamillionaire

doctrine said:


> Sure enough to short the stock?


Nope (never shorted a stock). But usually the "hot" stock of the moment doesn't end well and the big moneys been made. 100 other stocks id rather own with less noise, less hype. Any number of underfollowed, underappreciated mid/small caps with room to grow and little to no debt. Buying or shorting Apple goes against everything I've read, from Livermore to Lynch/ Buffett. Too much hype, manipulation, opinions going around - too difficult to make money.

That being said, it's hard to find an Apple bull now. So it may be a good time to buy. Not my cup of tea tho.


----------



## Toronto.gal

riseofamillionaire said:


> (never shorted a stock).... number of underfollowed, underappreciated mid/small caps with room to grow and little to no debt.


I could not agree more on both counts! Have never shorted a stock in my life, and I'm absolutely fascinated with the 'under-appreciated' companies.  

However, there is no need for sarcasm from anyone, but it's good to be reminded of the simple fact, that what goes up must come down, especially a stock that had experienced a stellar meteoric rise!


----------



## SkyFall

what makes me want to bang my head on the wall is that how can people (the market), before financial releases (today), think that AAPL is THE COMPANY I don't even get why AAPL was at one point the largest company in the world (market cap) when the smartphone's market is dominated by Google and Samsung...


----------



## riseofamillionaire

Toronto.gal said:


> I could not agree more on both counts! Have never shorted a stock in my life, and I'm absolutely fascinated with the 'under-appreciated' companies.
> 
> However, there is no need for sarcasm from anyone, but it's good to be reminded of the simple fact, that what goes up must come down, especially a stock that had experienced a stellar meteoric rise!


Honored to have Toronto.gal agree with me! *smitten* :chuncky:


----------



## riseofamillionaire

SkyFall said:


> what makes me want to bang my head on the wall is that how can people (the market), before financial releases (today), think that AAPL is THE COMPANY I don't even get why AAPL was at one point the largest company in the world (market cap) when the smartphone's market is dominated by Google and Samsung...


It's all about earnings. Even tho they are not the market share leaders, they earn more per iphone/ipad/mac than any other electronics maker. 

Why do they make more money per phone? Personal story - I recently bought a new phone b/c my contract was up. I wanted to get an iphone but my phone bill would have went up an extra $20 a month for the exact same plan (the apple premium). The iphone itself cost $100 more than the phone I ended up buying. I was kinda annoyed by those premiums and ended up getting a Galaxy Note instead. It's a great phone, no complaints, and I was able to keep the same plan I've had since high school (the one I couldn't get with the iphone because as the sales associate said, you can only get certain plans with the iphone because they have to pay Apple a premium for selling iphones). I'm with Rogers, so it may be different at other carriers. But that experience has forever made me annoyed with Apple. Too me it's not worth it anymore now that other phone companies have caught up innovation wise. The only way I could justify an iphone is if i had the whole Apple line up of hardware for the cloud services, which i don't.

But that's probably why Apple makes so much per product. Most people, especially teenagers and young people, could care less about the premium as long as its cool.


----------



## doctrine

Apple has been interesting because its never had a good P/E, because there were always bears. I wonder how low they will go. They have about $140 a share in cash. Down to $460 now in after market trading.


----------



## jcgd

Yes guys, I was being sarcastic, just stirring the pot. But I think my point is valid, this time is not different. But, being the same doesn't mean Apple is done for. It was a meteoric rise, but Apple is extremely good at making money. That's why they had the largest market cap in the world. So what if Samsung and Google sell more phones? Apple can sell less phones and make more money doing it. So which is the better company then? And I'm not sure what the issue is with a electronics company being the biggest in the world. It only makes sense that the company who can create the most demand for a highly expensive THING, with huge margins would become huge. Apple had/has such a low valuation because nobody trusts it. They know Apple is printing money, but it's almost too good to be true. I mean, it's making a butt load off of $30 hunks of plastic. But people want them and are willing to skip out on oil for a month so they can have an iPhone instead.

Thing is... this is just like any other rise and eventual fall. The killer for Apple - eventually - is that competitors will eventually offer what the consumer wants for less. Or they will offer something the consumer wants more and they can will either pull market share from Apple, or Apples margins will shrink and they will make less money. I think this is gaining traction. Others may disagree. Regardless, there are so many ways for Apple to run out of steam that it's not really a question of "if", but "when".

This is why I won't touch Apple.


PS- The points made by riseofmillionair and T.Gal I agree with also.


----------



## thenegotiator

riseofamillionaire said:


> If your an 'investor' and bought over 500 you deserve to get crushed. 20-30% of market cap in cash and not growing, not to mention ipod and macs slow/no growth. Jim Cramer been on this thing since $150, that should throw up some red flags. Too over followed, over hyped. Classic lessons preached in every relevant investing book since 1900.


i promised i would not post anymore .
well i am breaking my promise.
u never owned the stock as far as i can tell.
but u beat it with a stick after the writing was on the wall at 700 bux,.
for the first time i am going to disagree with T.gal but she knows my thoughts about AAPl more than anyone here.
she will not get OFFENDed lol or sensitive by my remarks on ur horrible and senseless post.
besides u do not even short stocks.
then what u buy on weakness?
what are the hundreds so much unknown companies that u do have.
please share with us .
i do not need ur sharing on the companies u may have because i do not give a hoot about it.
the death of Steve jobs WAS the sell signal.
they could have Einstein replacing him and it would make no difference.
on the other hand u mention CRAMERICA.
OH Mein Got.
so lets see where do u see this stock at since it has been shorted since 700 bux.
it is easy to criticize after the fact ( which was know already) 
i posted several times that a very bearish crossover formed on the stock just like any moron on earth could see.
i will throw a bone here.
actually no i am not.
GOB is a missed person on the thread as company guidance.
lacked the investor savvyness though.

actually AAPl in several events in this miserable chaotic stock mkt LIFTED the indexes just by being AAPL and posting stellar results.
ONE COMPANY LIFTING A WHOLE INDEX.
and u would ask why is that .
find ur answers and come back here after googling.
go figure that one.

i am short Fb .
are you?
put ur money where ur mouth is .


----------



## Homerhomer

Have you thought of changing your name to theagitator, it would fit you much better.


----------



## HaroldCrump

thenegotiator said:


> ONE COMPANY LIFTING A WHOLE INDEX.
> and u would ask why is that .
> find ur answers and come back here after googling.
> go figure that one.


Well, it is not the first time this has happened, though (and I am sure it will happen over and over again in the future, as long as there are equity markets).

Remember how Nortel dominated the S&P TSX index once?
I don't recall the exact number, but it was at least 1/3rd.
And how it crushed the TSX when it fell apart.

Then there was RIM (still is).
Even with it's market cap diminished by over 80% since its highs, RIM can still move the TSX index either way.

As long as we have cap weighted indices, this will happen.


----------



## thenegotiator

^and why is that?
because i call people out on their impressive revelations after the fact has happened already?
discussion is healthy .
lack of opinion and not having the skin in the game is not.
i have a fair amount of money shorting FB.
covered already.
so what if i am wrong?
i am taking the other side of the bet.
as for AAPl i was a seller at 700 bux.
in the meantime people on this thread just talk and blah blah blah.
except for a few real traders here.
not an agitator at all.
same story with PMR.
PBN .... are u willing to take the opposite side on it negotiator?
stock went further down after their earnings.
why hold a stock pre earnings report?
that may have been a good comment on this thread?
have u thought about it homer?
anyway.
whatever.


HAROLD THIS WAS REFERRED TO HOMER.
IT SOMEHOW ENDED BELOW UR POST.
i like reading ur posts.
cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

HaroldCrump said:


> Well, it is not the first time this has happened, though (and I am sure it will happen over and over again in the future, as long as there are equity markets).
> 
> Remember how Nortel dominated the S&P TSX index once?
> I don't recall the exact number, but it was at least 1/3rd.
> And how it crushed the TSX when it fell apart.
> 
> Then there was RIM (still is).
> Even with it's market cap diminished by over 80% since its highs, RIM can still move the TSX index either way.
> 
> As long as we have cap weighted indices, this will happen.



Harold
that is my whole point.
but u do get it as an investor.
it did not impress me at all that AAPL lifted the index at those times just like Nortel and Rim.
i fully agree with ya.
that is what i am talking about cap weighted indices.


----------



## GoldStone

When Apple hit $700, it traded at a P/E of 15. Not terribly expensive. When that happened, Apple market cap hit 5% of S&P 500.

Barron's published an article that made an interesting argument:

The reason Apple didn't go higher is because most institutional investors don't want (or cannot) put more than 5% of an index in a single company. It's the opposite argument of what you guys say. Market-cap weighted indices didn't lift Apple; they stopped it.

Here's the article in Barron's (scroll down to the second part):
http://online.barrons.com/article/S...578235762819811322.html#articleTabs_article=1

Shorter version of the same argument on The Big Picture blog:

Why cheap Apple shares can’t gain any traction
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/5-biggest-market-caps-as-of-sp500/


----------



## thenegotiator

do not want and cannot are too different words.
look at my posts and see what did I say about institutional holdings pre 700 bux?
i said that every institution on earth held aapl.
i think the MARTIANs held AAPL lol.
all of a sudden the room is so full of bulls that u can smell the manure all around ya.
what do u do when u manage 2 billion dollars as a fund manager?
u deleverage.
It is costly to maintain a position for crying out loud.
is that highly leveraged enough for ya?
and what is opposite to what I and Harold just said above?
XOm as an example .
would i hold XOM as my ' preferred" highly leveraged stock if i ever held any stock in my life?
noooooooooooooooo.

just to add.
Buffet sold his entire position on GE.
is it going to cratter because Buffet does not hold GE?
nooooooooooooooo

that is it.
i am done posting now.
i really hate when senseless posts show up .
that is all.
just ike the natural gas 1 dollar handle in 2012.
TRP and many more.


----------



## andrewf

Not sure I buy that argument. S&P500 is only ~40% of global market cap. Also, there are plenty of hedge funds who have demonstrated their willingness to hold more than 5% in AAPL.

Not to mention, if the underlying business is sound, eventually the cash in AAPL will be more than 5% of the S&P 500--would stock holders get the enterprise for free then?


----------



## HaroldCrump

GoldStone said:


> The reason Apple didn't go higher is because most institutional investors don't want (or cannot) put more than 5% of an index in a single company. It's the opposite argument of what you guys say. Market-cap weighted indices didn't lift Apple; they stopped it.


But I didn't say that (and neither did thenegotiator say that, as far as I understand his post).
He is commenting on the mere fact that a single stock is able to move an index in this manner.
and I added the comment that this has happened before in our own TSX market - twice in my memory.


----------



## thenegotiator

^
Harold.
I am done.
we did not say that at all.
u understood me perfectly.


----------



## PMREdmonton

Apple is presently technically oversold. Too a ridiculous degree. Very soon people are going to wake up and see all the iMacs, iPhones and iPads out there and the still full Apple stores and realize this company is far from over in the near term. What will happen 3 years from now no one knows but right now Apple is a serious value based on still being the strongest player in a hugely growing market (smartphones and tablets). The vast majority of people don't have one but most want one and will strive to get one in the next couple of years as costs continue to come down and features continue to increase. I was paying $35/mo for a barebones cellphone plan and now pay $65/mo for a barebones smartphone plan but feel like I get a much better value out of it nevertheless.

My point is the whole world is going to mobile computing and here you have the dominant company with the highest customer satisfaction with the most easily learned user interfaces with $137B and EV/Sales now somewhere around 1.5 and EV/EBITDA somewhere around 6 all while still growing 15-20% per year. All while still having very healthy margins.

So will the stock go lower? Who knows - maybe. Maybe it'll go down by a lot. I still think it is a serious value right now. I'll put in a bid to buy any stocks that fall to $430 tomorrow because I know there'll be a huge wall of buyers at $425 and would like to get in ahead of them. I think it will probably finish a bit down from its afterhours low today but not by much. At some point people will have to realize that the company just made a ton of money and has a ton of money and is still growing. 

Just a couple of months ago it seemed like people were talking about $1000 a share. I thought the notion was ridiculous and scoffed at $750/share but the same company is now much cheaper. The only difference is sentiment because Samsung's products look cooler right now. I know - I have one, the G3. The vast majority of people I know still have iPhones and aren't considering buying anything else FWIW. I'm the oddball with the G3. 

I expect a stock split to come soon (hopefully 10:1) and I also expect a decision to do a massive stock repurchase at these low values. The purchasing of stock when it was in the 700's was lunacy. We'll see if Cook has a few active brain cells and announces these decisions in the next couple of weeks.


----------



## thenegotiator

if ur talking about a possible ..... POSSIBLE bounce i agree.
otherwise i do not.
do u know what a coolpad is?
do u know how much it costs in china amongst other regional manufacturers?
when AAPl comes up with a competitor then they have a slight chance to conquer China.
western countries are saturated with aapl.

now i am really done.
PMR by the way i think i should have shorted PBN when u told me:biggrin:
any other picks that i can think of shorting when u buy it?


----------



## GoldStone

Andrew, hedge funds are small fish compared to pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_assets_under_management



> S&P500 is only ~40% of global market cap.


This is not relevant. Big institutional players like pension funds hire separate managers to run different equity mandates. US equity manager has a written IPS (vetoed by the client) that puts a cap on the weight of a single stock in the US equity portfolio. The manager can buy AAPL until it hits the cap. The manager has to stop right there, cheap valuations be damned.


----------



## thenegotiator

GoldStone said:


> Andrew, hedge funds are small fish compared to pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_assets_under_management
> 
> 
> This is not relevant. Big institutional players like pension funds hire separate managers to run different equity mandates. US equity manager has a written IPS (vetoed by the client) that puts a cap on the weight of a single stock in the US equity portfolio. The manager can buy AAPL until it hits the cap. The manager has to stop right there, cheap valuations be damned.


oh mein Got.
imagine the pension funds that bought nortel / enron etc...
and what?
hedge funds are small fish?
wow


----------



## GoldStone

thenegotiator said:


> hedge funds are small fish?


Did you bother to open the link and look at the numbers?


----------



## thenegotiator

GoldStone said:


> Did you bother to open the link and look at the numbers?


no 
i did not.
the numbers in terms of efficiency of a hedge fund compared to a pension fund are completely different.
as an example commoditties hedge funds.


----------



## Homerhomer

thenegotiator said:


> i am done posting now.
> .





thenegotiator said:


> ^
> 
> i am done.
> .





thenegotiator said:


> now i am really done.
> ?


r u????????




thenegotiator said:


> no
> .


----------



## Addy

Thanks for the morning laugh.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> 1. because i call people out on their impressive revelations after the fact has happened already?
> 2. as for AAPl i was a seller at 700 bux.
> 3. why hold a stock pre earnings report?


This thread got interesting while I slept.  

*1.* That is fine to do in a discussion situation, but no need to blow-up & be harsh about it. You do bring good points, however.

*2.* I personally did not see the 'sell' sign even at the all time highs of $705 [I also thought the stock would reach $1K], so I did not sell, though I should have balanced given that I was up so significantly. ANyway, I do see opportunity now & by no means am I kicking the stock.

*3.* It's a chance sometimes people take [to hold or buy just before]; I rarely do the latter, but did so with NOK recently, but would have never done it with AAPL for obvious reasons, not even at the time when they never seemed to miss expectations; after all, how many spectacular & consecutive reports did this company have?

*riseofamillionaire:* not sure if you were sarcastic, but your post was funny just the same. :biggrin:


----------



## Spudd

This is a good lesson to me to follow my investment plan. I bought it the other day (at 497) because I felt the media was going overboard on the Apple doom story and I thought their earnings would exceed expectations. However, it was completely against my investment plan. Now I pay the price. Luckily, it was only 5 shares, so no great loss. I plan to hold, since I really think they will recover. And in future, stick to my investment plan!!


----------



## sags

Not scientific...........but my son bought an Ipad for family use at Christmas.

Everyone uses it, but nobody uses it to search the web. All they do is play games on it, so it is an expensive game system, that spends most of the time sitting on the table unused.

Cool product...........but apparently not essential to any of us.

My son bought an IPhone 4s and updated to the new IOS6 software. His data usage skyrocketed immediately and after having Apple and Rogers both deny any responsibility..............or an adequate fix for the problem, he now is paying for a data plan that has the data deliberately blocked by him at the service provider, to prevent overage charges. Some of his friends have been getting big bills as well.

None of them will be renewing with an Iphone when their contracts are over.

Some of the US carriers have eliminated their "unlimited" plans, and people will begin to pay the full cost of data use on their Iphones. 

They could be in for a big surprise.


----------



## GoldStone

sags said:


> My son bought an IPhone 4s and updated to the new IOS6 software. His data usage skyrocketed immediately and after having Apple and Rogers both deny any responsibility..............or an adequate fix for the problem, he now is paying for a data plan that has the data deliberately blocked by him at the service provider, to prevent overage charges. Some of his friends have been getting big bills as well.


1. It's a known bug in iOS 6. An update is available that fixes the issue.
2. I got a full rebate from Bell when my bill skyrocketed.


----------



## sags

GoldStone said:


> 1. It's a known bug in iOS 6. An update is available that fixes the issue.
> 2. I got a full rebate from Bell when my bill skyrocketed.


That's great that Bell treated their customers well.

Rogers refused to acknowledge the problem, and demanded full payment.

The problem was really Apple's though.........and they made no attempt to reimburse customers either. The did download some new software...........which deleted everything from the phone.......and it still didn't work.

So the data use is blocked, although the bill is still getting paid.

Only until the contract runs out..........and then he will get something else.


----------



## thenegotiator

Addy said:


> Thanks for the morning laugh.





Homerhomer said:


> r u????????


i think that both of ya make me laugh.
but i will leave this for another day:highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused:
addy.
did u actually see that UUU traded at 7 dollars?
do u know what FuKuS sHi Ma was?
oh i see ....


----------



## thenegotiator

Addy said:


> Thanks for the morning laugh.





Homerhomer said:


> r u????????





Toronto.gal said:


> This thread got interesting while I slept.
> 
> *1.* That is fine to do in a discussion situation, but no need to blow-up & be harsh about it. You do bring good points, however.
> 
> *2.* I personally did not see the 'sell' sign even at the all time highs of $705 [I also thought the stock would reach $1K], so I did not sell, though I should have balanced given that I was up so significantly. ANyway, I do see opportunity now & by no means am I kicking the stock.
> 
> *3.* It's a chance sometimes people take [to hold or buy just before]; I rarely do the latter, but did so with NOK recently, but would have never done it with AAPL for obvious reasons, not even at the time when they never seemed to miss expectations; after all, how many spectacular & consecutive reports did this company have?
> 
> *riseofamillionaire:* not sure if you were sarcastic, but your post was funny just the same. :biggrin:



T.gal
what happens when u pour too much sugar or salt in a glass of water?
at one point it gets saturated right ?
u see those tiny weeny crystals of salt or sugar in the bottom of the glass.
that was AAPl at 700 bux.

as for holding a stock pre report , i am sorry AAPl had a 50/50 chance to report good earnings.
there is no way unless ur an insider to know what a company will report.
AMD had a good report and the stock went to where i bought it.

I do NOT hold stocks pre- report , but that is me and u are u right?
everyone has different approaches and not only myself warned people here about AAPl.
actually the guys that warned about AAPL are investors here.
i am a trader not an investor.
u should know that by now.



It is very unfortunate that people without any knowledge of AAPL kicked out GOB from the thread.
He was the only guy here that knew the inside out of the company.
poor investment techniques but very knowledgeable .


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> 1. i am sorry AAPl had a 50/50 chance to report good earnings.
> 2. It is very unfortunate that people without any knowledge of AAPL kicked out GOB from the thread.


*1.* True enough, I did not suggest otherwise, just that I have never bought it before earnings myself. I have seen enough damage done to stocks by even a miss of a penny to be buying expensive shares just prior to earnings. I have probably done it 2 or 3 times in as many years [of other smaller companies].

*2. *I miss GOB as well, but his departure had been his choice.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* True enough, I did not suggest otherwise, just that I have never bought it before earnings myself. I have seen enough damage done to stocks by even a miss of a penny to be buying expensive shares just prior to earnings. I have probably done it 2 or 3 times in as many years.
> 
> *2. *I miss GOB as well, but his departure had been his choice.



i agree that GOB's departure was his choice in the end of the day.
problem is that people are tooo sensitive .
and then post jokes like homer or Addy .
then people that are either traders or investors get sick of it.
u know that i am the first one to admit my mistakes .... like AMD ....INTC i got away with it.
either way...
cheers
in trading there is no sensitivity and there is no feelings or emotion.
u know that just as I do.


by the way MSFT about to report.

lets see this one.


not good response after hours 
justified


----------



## Eclectic12

riseofamillionaire said:


> ...But that's probably why Apple makes so much per product. Most people, especially teenagers and young people, could care less about the premium as long as its cool.


I'm sure that's part of it ... but the comment I've heard more often is "It was a snap to setup and works right out of the box compared to the tweaks I've had to do with other systems I've used in the past. Sure there's a premium but my time is worth more."


Cheers


----------



## none

I think apple has lost its cool now - Andriod phones are the hip things with the young crowd. I think iphones are being bought by 30+ now because they are techno-easy (my 2 year old is better at using his grandmother's iphone than she is).

I just switched to a mac and actually I kind of hate it. I'm a linux guy and I really dislike not doing what I want. The only reason I went mac though is because I needed a new computer anyway, I wanted command line access, and my wife is a mac person (and I have an iphone simply because I got an unlocked 4 no plan for $150).

Anyway, not a huge apple fan - I don't think I'd every buy their stock because I don't think their products are really all that great (at least anymore).


----------



## riseofamillionaire

thenegotiator said:


> i promised i would not post anymore .
> well i am breaking my promise.
> u never owned the stock as far as i can tell.
> but u beat it with a stick after the writing was on the wall at 700 bux,.
> for the first time i am going to disagree with T.gal but she knows my thoughts about AAPl more than anyone here.
> she will not get OFFENDed lol or sensitive by my remarks on ur horrible and senseless post.
> besides u do not even short stocks.
> then what u buy on weakness?
> what are the hundreds so much unknown companies that u do have.
> please share with us .
> i do not need ur sharing on the companies u may have because i do not give a hoot about it.
> the death of Steve jobs WAS the sell signal.
> they could have Einstein replacing him and it would make no difference.
> on the other hand u mention CRAMERICA.
> OH Mein Got.
> so lets see where do u see this stock at since it has been shorted since 700 bux.
> it is easy to criticize after the fact ( which was know already)
> i posted several times that a very bearish crossover formed on the stock just like any moron on earth could see.
> i will throw a bone here.
> actually no i am not.
> GOB is a missed person on the thread as company guidance.
> lacked the investor savvyness though.
> 
> actually AAPl in several events in this miserable chaotic stock mkt LIFTED the indexes just by being AAPL and posting stellar results.
> ONE COMPANY LIFTING A WHOLE INDEX.
> and u would ask why is that .
> find ur answers and come back here after googling.
> go figure that one.
> 
> i am short Fb .
> are you?
> put ur money where ur mouth is .


Just do you, I don't really care.


----------



## riseofamillionaire

thenegotiator said:


> put ur money where ur mouth is .


These are the under followed, under appreciated, less hype, less noise stocks I own - MRD, MTY, CMG, SAT, AD, BCI, BDI, KBL, EFN

That's where my moneys been. Id never touch aapl or fb. Not my style.


----------



## sags

Eclectic12 said:


> I'm sure that's part of it ... but the comment I've heard more often is "It was a snap to setup and works right out of the box compared to the tweaks I've had to do with other systems I've used in the past. Sure there's a premium but my time is worth more."
> 
> 
> Cheers


I think you are right that the perceived "ease of use" was a big factor for Apple along the way.........but somewhere they decided to hook everything up with their other money making products........like ITunes and ICloud, and the GPS features, and an "out of the box" Iphone now continually logs on to sync with those Apple features.

This uses data time and therefore costs more money. None of this matters to the consumer who has an unlimited package, as many had in the US, but my understanding is the amount of data time was increasing rapidly and the service providers are ending the unlimited plans. 

They see money in them there hills.

Some recommendations on Apple support and tech blogs, to remedy the problem, are to go through the phone and switch off all the continuous updating.

The latest software glitch was the Iphone automatically switched from wifi to wireless network, if it detected a stronger signal in the network. Handy for some perhaps..........but expensive for others.

I think it is a lesson to phone manufacturers. Too many things that may be "cool" and use data time...........cost money.

I am not an expert by any means..........but that has been my experience, even with the IPad.........which automatically directs to some Apple site.

Maybe I just don't have it set up properly........but why have it come pre-set, so you have to turn off many of the settings?

Maybe the gap is between the carriers desire for more cash and Apple's desire for more features?


----------



## thenegotiator

riseofamillionaire said:


> These are the under followed, under appreciated, less hype, less noise stocks I own - MRD, MTY, CMG, SAT, AD, BCI, BDI, KBL, EFN
> 
> That's where my moneys been. Id never touch aapl or fb. Not my style.





riseofamillionaire said:


> Just do you, I don't really care.


and you think i do care where ur money is?
if u do not own aapl or do not trade AAPL why the comments then?
put ur comments and ur money on the stocks u trade .
open threads on the above stocks.
by all means
not here.


----------



## none

thenegotiator said:


> and you think i do care where ur money is?
> if u do not own aapl or do not trade AAPL why the comments then?
> put ur comments and ur money on the stocks u trade .
> open threads on the above stocks.
> by all means
> not here.


This baiting is more appropriate for private messages - no body cares and it adds nothing to the thread. Please be more respectful to the forum.


----------



## riseofamillionaire

sags said:


> The latest software glitch was the Iphone automatically switched from wifi to wireless network, if it detected a stronger signal in the network. Handy for some perhaps..........but expensive for others.
> 
> I think it is a lesson to phone manufacturers. Too many things that may be "cool" and use data time...........cost money.


That would suck. I have a low data plan as well and use wifi often. It almost seems like a cash grab by the network providers. Hopefully this is fixed.

Also I heard with iphone5 you have to buy a new phone charger. Why wouldn't that just come with the phone? Arrogant cash grab imo.


----------



## thenegotiator

none said:


> This baiting is more appropriate for private messages - no body cares and it adds nothing to the thread. Please be more respectful to the forum.


what?
respectfull to the forum?
who is being disrespectfull?
who kicked GOB out of here?
me ?
or people like u.
traders here warned about the AAPL crash.
i was one of them.
respect what? u ?
what have u posted here that is useful?
point it to me.
whatever.
i do have respect .
for some investors and traders here .
i guarantee u that u are not even in my mind or do i even think of reading what u post.

therefore my respect was to THE MEMBERS THAT WERE HOLDING AAPL TO SELL WHEN SELLING WAS DUE.


----------



## webber22

< as CC reaches for the temp ban button >

no, do not ban him just yet
holy cryptic typing batman !!
i think we need to pitch in and buy negotiator a better data plan
1 that is by the month, not by the character

i'll keep this brief negotiator since your data usage must be maxed out by now

try to keep ur self on topic
ur tips r good sometimes
not so good oth r times
ovr and out


----------



## thenegotiator

listen.
CC can and probably will ban me yet again.
the person i have contact with in here will miss me.
too bad so sad.
ur silly jokes above do not matter to me oh so much enlightened webber 22.
i do not imagine u buying me anything ,... not even a lolly pop... actually keep the lolly pop to urself .
ur posts are also incredibly good.
by all means .
keep posting them:biggrin:
actually webber if u had the traders desk i have u would luv it lol.
but i am sure that u cannot afford it.
did u smell the flowers today?
the topic is AAPL 
not other stocks that rise posted.
do u still have a USR dial up modem in ur pentium 100?:biggrin:

imagine if i needed input on buying and selling from people like u:hopelessness:


p.s by the way i do not provide tips.
i simply menntion what i see in front of me .
if people want to follow that is their problem.
besides ur coments about my tips being good or not have no relevance to me either.
i called PMR in several stocks.
so did humble pie 
so what/
people have to listen to what i say?
do me a favour place me on ur ignore


----------



## supperfly17

Negotiator I am not sure if this 
was asked 
before but why
do you always
type like this
it makes it annoying and hard
to make sense of what you are 
trying to say. Cheers.


----------



## lonewolf

Apple last 16 years

Buy Feb 22 open sell April 5 market on close

81% wins
years 16
Average profit 13%
Risk/Reward 1:2.1
average daily profit .29%
biggest profit 31%
max gain 39%
average draw -6%
max draw -16%
total wins 13
total losses 3
trading days 30
total history +206%


----------



## thenegotiator

if u mention the above as a short term trade i see a good possibility.
the gap on the daily will be closed at some point.
i would start a small position if i was to perform that trade.
after a certain consolidation.
chart based only.
fundamentally i still believe that 350/400 is an initial support area in the long term.


----------



## andrewf

On margins, it is interesting to note that Apple's margins in the most recent quarter were 38.6% vs 44.7% in the year ago quarter. I know I was called an idiot for thinking Apple might face margin compression and that this would weigh on the stock price, but I feel somewhat vindicated. 38.6% margins are still pretty good, but the market seems concerned that the trend will continue.


----------



## thenegotiator

i came across two interesting articles .
i do hope that GOB is still around because he gave a lot of insight on the company itself even nthough i mentioned to him that i was bearish at close to the top.
for AAPL holders here it goes.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-apple-is-worth-less-than-netflix-2013-01-24?dist=tcountdown

the above explains what short covering is to the dot.
i do not follow arora but i heard about them.
the other one is

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/01/24/apples-10-best-rebounds/


i want to point out that as the saying goes that the trend is ur friend till it ends.
IMO we saw the highs on AAPL .... i mean forever.
unless Tim cook comes up with an unbelievable achievment and an impressive reduction in price of their products to stay competitive in this mkt.

GOB if u are around i am terribly sorry if u actually did loose money bud.
cheers to ya though.
u had skin in the game but we cannot win them all.
next time listen to the mkt.
do not listen to the noise.
i hope u recoup ur losses in something else.
disclaimer 
i am planniong to buy AAPL at my own terms.
it is a great company suffering from the loss of STEVE JOBS.
one of the brightest entrepreneurs of this past tech revolution.
he built AAPl from the ashes.


----------



## brad

thenegotiator said:


> IMO we saw the highs on AAPL .... i mean forever.
> unless Tim cook comes up with an unbelievable achievment and an impressive reduction in price of their products to stay competitive in this mkt.


I wouldn't be surprised if we did see the high forever, but I would just point out that those high prices were caused by the market's reaction to Apple, not because anything changed at Apple. It's like some actor who takes the same approach to his or her roles for decades and then suddenly is "discovered" and becomes a star for a few years before Hollywood moves on to someone else. Apple's not going to make big cuts in their prices to "stay competitive in this market" because that's not how Apple works. Years ago their slogan was "Think Different." They don't operate like most other companies in their business, they focus on a very limited product line (which they intend to keep limited), and they are motivated more by excellence than by trying to be market leaders. They may have had their day in the sun and if it's over I don't think that's a problem for them, it's just a problem for their shareholders (and their employees with stock options!).

People keep pushing Apple to diversify their product line, offer 10 different models of iPhone and 14 different models of iPads, etc., because that's what they're used to seeing from other manufacturers so they think that's the way it has to work. But Apple doesn't work that way, they're not about market share or domination. I think they just happened to come up with some products that were incredibly popular for a while, and now things are starting to trend back down toward normal. I have little doubt they'll come up with more incredibly popular products in the future, but most likely in different areas than those where they've shone in the past few years.


----------



## kcowan

^+1
Unless Tim Cook gets caught up in all the free advice he is getting!


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> 1. IMO we saw the highs on AAPL .... *i mean forever*.
> 2. a great company suffering from the loss of STEVE JOBS.


1. Never say never, as things move very fast in the tech world.
2. This was not evident immediately following his death, but long-term, there is no doubt.

From Oct./2012:
*'And long-term, the company may still feel the loss of a leader who possessed an uncanny ability to see around corners, and bend other strong personalities to his will.'*
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-10-05/markets/34266767_1_latest-iphone-apple-maps-ceo-tim-cook


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Love my ipad but I am DONE owning Apple stock (forever). 

By the way, my brand new ipod nano drains its battery so fast I am shocked. My first gen nano seems to last for months even though its a decade old. Touch screen is nice to look at but not good for battery life!


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. Never say never, as things move very fast in the tech world.
> 2. This was not evident immediately following his death, but long-term, there is no doubt.
> 
> From Oct./2012:
> *'And long-term, the company may still feel the loss of a leader who possessed an uncanny ability to see around corners, and bend other strong personalities to his will.'*
> http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-10-05/markets/34266767_1_latest-iphone-apple-maps-ceo-tim-cook


heheheh
me thinks .... that one day ... somebody.... said that to ya:rolleyes2:.
yes ... never say never.... this time though i can agree with ya that maybe just maybe sometime in the next couple of light years we may retest the 700 bux. 
chart based only.
u know i am not tech savvy but as anything in any chart is possible i will rephrase to maybe never again.
how does that sound.
u can count on that gap being filled sometime somewhere in the next cosmic time .
we will be here to see that .
Steve job's that i mentioned figuratively as u know it.
the mentor has died and with him the whole culture will suffer.
Tim cook can be the savvyest business man on earth but he cannot replace Steve.
that is my opinion.
as it consolidates i may be a buyer.
i will post when i buy it.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> fundamentally i still believe that 350/400 is an initial support area in the long term.


Indeed not that far from $400 now.

*Edit:* I posted before seeing your last entry.

Yes, no doubt the late Mr. Jobs was the heart of AAPL, however, I also strongly believe that none of us is indispensable in this world, no matter how smart.


----------



## andrewf

Hopefully Cook is smart and starts a big sharebuying program. If a company has >$100 billion cash and a EV/E under ten and DOESN'T buy back their shares, I have to wonder what is going on.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Indeed not that far from $400 now.
> 
> *Edit:* I posted before seeing your last entry.
> 
> Yes, no doubt the late Mr. Jobs was the heart of AAPL, however, I also strongly believe that none of us is indispensable in this world, no matter how smart.



T,gal
there is a big difference between being non indispensable and being the creator of a culture.
the second was and is Steve Jobs.
Cook is a professional not a culture creator.
again JMO.
the company is solid.
it has to be able to compete in the market price wise.
in NA they have to create something new.
the people that have been buiyng aapl have been used to new stuff all the time.
if that stopped and peaked then....... we will seee only lower revenues.


----------



## brad

Based on some of the things I've read I think there's a surge in innovation and creativity underway at Apple now that Jobs is gone, in part because he shot down so many good ideas that now may reach more receptive ears, and some of his more questionable design preferences are gradually being eradicated (the wood panel look in apps, for example). Jonathan Ive is still there, who while perhaps not a "culture creator" has played a huge role in developing Apple's biggest-hit products and remains a guiding light for most people in the company. But most important, Jobs knew he was going to die, and he wanted to be sure Apple would be in good hands when he was gone.


----------



## thenegotiator

brad said:


> Based on some of the things I've read I think there's a surge in innovation and creativity underway at Apple now that Jobs is gone, in part because he shot down so many good ideas that now may reach more receptive ears, and some of his more questionable design preferences are gradually being eradicated (the wood panel look in apps, for example). Jonathan Ive is still there, who while perhaps not a "culture creator" has played a huge role in developing Apple's biggest-hit products and remains a guiding light for most people in the company. But most important, Jobs knew he was going to die, and he wanted to be sure Apple would be in good hands when he was gone.


me thinks u are wrong.
no pun intended


----------



## Toronto.gal

Wrong about what?

It does seem that Cook is making his own moves, and not just following a list that Steve Jobs surely must have left behind for him.

That is partly what I meant by indispensable; people die, but life goes on without them & their brilliance.

I understood/agreed with the 'culture' part though.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Wrong about what?
> 
> It does seem that Cook is making his own moves, and not just following a list that Steve Jobs surely must have left behind for him.
> 
> That is partly what I meant by indispensable; people die, but life goes on without them & their brilliance.
> 
> I understood/agreed with the 'culture' part though.


wrong about the creativity.
they peaked.
T.gal yes people die and life continues but in this case it is not the same.
Steve was the culture leader.
COOK can and probably will try and lower prices of such expensive toys.
If he does not AAPL will go lower.
NA mkt is saturated with it.
for him to stay competitive he has to compete with lower priced gadgets like the coolpad.
If he wants Asia he has to slash prices dramatically.
for the NA mkt he has to create something to attract the culture back to it.
i do not see that happening.


----------



## Jets99

attract the culture back to it ? They never left but the over rotation on negativity is astounding. Time to split this banana. Uh, apple. Remove the "expensive" perception. 

I was so wrong on where this thing was going. Live by the sword, die by the sword and this one is slaying me now. Love hurts. Gawd this is painful.

PS - PMREdmonton had the best post I've seen in awhile on Apple a while back. Smart guy.


----------



## AnimeEd

Why are they stockpiling so much cash. They can use the cash to buy back some shares as well as increase the dividend a little.


----------



## m3s

thenegotiator said:


> wrong about the creativity.
> they peaked.
> 
> If he wants Asia he has to slash prices dramatically.
> for the NA mkt he has to create something to attract the culture back to it.
> i do not see that happening.


Lots of bold statements

When I was in Asia they seemed to love Apple products. Of course there are knock-offs but they know it's fake and many of them are probably more vain about having authentic brand name products than westerners

When China raised the import fees on high end luxury cars, the luxury car market there sold even more! Most of the luxury car growth is from Asia.... There's a huge social status thing with expensive products there. Even if Apple cut their prices in half the majority still can't afford them anyways, and it would just have less "social status" appeal for those who can

I think Apple will only do better with Cook, but I still don't invest in them. Mainstream stocks like this are better for swing trades I think


----------



## thenegotiator

Jets99 said:


> attract the culture back to it ? They never left but the over rotation on negativity is astounding. Time to split this banana. Uh, apple. Remove the "expensive" perception.
> 
> I was so wrong on where this thing was going. Live by the sword, die by the sword and this one is slaying me now. Love hurts. Gawd this is painful.
> 
> PS - PMREdmonton had the best post I've seen in awhile on Apple a while back. Smart guy.



PMR had the best post on AAPL a while back?
maybe i missed it.
please point it to me .
no pun intended either.
u just got me curious .that is all.


----------



## Belguy

Apple has lost 37% of it's market value since September!!:hopelessness::cower::hopelessness::cower:


----------



## doctrine

Long term horizons required on any stock. Apple isn't even at a 52 week low yet.


----------



## Belguy

doctrine said:


> Long term horizons required on any stock. Apple isn't even at a 52 week low yet.


Is that Samsung that I see over your shoulder?:frown::upset::hopelessness::cower:


----------



## thenegotiator

doctrine said:


> Long term horizons required on any stock. Apple isn't even at a 52 week low yet.


52 week low = 419.55
ur damn close to it.


----------



## kcowan

I think Cook is focused on China and China Mobile. When he gets that, there should be an uptick in demand for iPhones.

I agree with mode3sour that the Chinese like luxury brands and Apple is one of the few in the tech space.

There is no doubt that Apple is going through a traumatic conversion from niche holding to mainstream. As a mainstream stock, the opinions of The Street will influence the stock price more than ever. Such is life with the big boys.

Is anyone backing up their truck to load up at these firesale prices?


----------



## peterk

Dumped my BAC yesterday for Apple. We'll see how this goes...


----------



## PMREdmonton

I wouldn't back up the truck but I've nibbled a bit already. I may nibble a lot more if we get to 400-425. People are underestimating the profitability of this juggernaut. I wasn't that eager to buy Apple at a PE of 25 but at EV/EBITDA of 6 they are a no-brainer.


----------



## Belguy

I read today that Apple stock is moving from a growth to a value stock. Agree?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Belguy said:


> Apple has lost 37% of it's market value since September!!:hopelessness::cower::hopelessness::cower:


And how much did it gain since March/09?


----------



## Islenska

I've been piling in, it is up to 7% now of the nest egg, and will use options going forward.

Sure hype pushed it up to $700 but now down to $450 (that's like a Maple Leaf ticket price)

Can't believe the Apple fans will switch off so quickly, I never like the whole American dominant concept of Apple
but surely has to be interesting at these levels.

Mr. Cook will be rallying the troops this morning!


----------



## Toronto.gal

AAPL stock should split; I think there are more arguments for doing so, than against.

I would not mind a 3-for-1 split.


----------



## marina628

Well I already reached my comfort zone with AAPL 38 shares and down 19% but I bought 20 shares at $440 yesterday with intention I will buy 20 more if it goes to $400 and then I am going to forget about it.I think it is a good stock and i bought 12 shares at $675 thinking it was a good idea then .


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> And how much did it gain since March/09?


a lot right?
low of 80 bux in 09.
still worth a lot of money if u bought 1k shares then.
would i sell it at 450?
yes.
woulf i have sold at 700 bux?
do not even mention that.
i probably woylf have sold at 200 bux if i was investing at that time .
lets say u were the lucky one to pick it up at 80 bux.
what are u going to do now.
here lies the question.
it is not late yet.
I want to point out that as far as i know the 4th quarter was usually their best quarter?
correct me if am wrong.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> AAPL stock should split; I think there are more arguments for doing so, than against.
> 
> I would not mind a 3-for-1 split.


why?
face value?
like berkshire?


----------



## 1sImage

marina628 said:


> Well I already reached my comfort zone with AAPL 38 shares and down 19% but I bought 20 shares at $440 yesterday with intention I will buy 20 more if it goes to $400 and then I am going to forget about it.I think it is a good stock and i bought 12 shares at $675 thinking it was a good idea then .


Damm.

"Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other"
Abraham Lincoln


----------



## PMREdmonton

Toronto.gal said:


> AAPL stock should split; I think there are more arguments for doing so, than against.
> 
> I would not mind a 3-for-1 split.


I'd like a 10-for-1 split myself to put the stock around 44 right now. Plenty of room to grow without needing another split for a very long time. At that level Apple would be 1 Trillion market cap as they hit 100. That isn't likely to happen to a long time, if ever. They'd also have to drop a long way before they hit a number they don't want to be below such as 20. Apple stock at 20 after the split would have a market cap that is 70% cash on the books and EV/EBITDA of around 1. So that isn't going to happen. 

I think a 8-1 split is also okay to push the stock down into the mid-50s.

The problem with 3-1 is that would put us around 150 right now and it would quickly be back up close to 200 which to me suggests another split is in order.

Anyhow, splits are just a bit of financial wave of the wand. It really changes nothing except a psychological mindset. Everyone would reframe their throughts of Apple and the brush with 750 and the calls for 1000 might seem like an unrelated sidebar.

The more important matter would be for them to start buying back a substantial amount of their stock float on the market. They are dirt cheap and could improve their EPS growth by buying back 5% of the stock each year so long as they are gushing cash. That'd still leave money for dividends, acquisitions and R&D.


----------



## gibor365

To push stock up APPL needs:
- split
- announce shares buyback
- increase dividend


----------



## Jets99

thenegotiator said:


> a lot right?
> low of 80 bux in 09.
> still worth a lot of money if u bought 1k shares then.
> would i sell it at 450?
> yes.
> woulf i have sold at 700 bux?
> do not even mention that.
> i probably woylf have sold at 200 bux if i was investing at that time .
> lets say u were the lucky one to pick it up at 80 bux.
> what are u going to do now.
> here lies the question.
> it is not late yet.
> I want to point out that as far as i know the 4th quarter was usually their best quarter?
> correct me if am wrong.



Dont get me wrong. I like your posts and salute your aversion to caps. 

But did you actually own APPL and did you actually sell at 700 ?? If so congrats. If not...

I own it and didn't. But agree it's not tool late to keep holding. 

This will be an interesting year for APPL shareholders. They can't hold so much cash forever and split is possible.

I had put a cap on my APPL but tempted again. Hissing snake and cat have me confused.


----------



## Jets99

thenegotiator said:


> PMR had the best post on AAPL a while back?
> maybe i missed it.
> please point it to me .
> no pun intended either.
> u just got me curious .that is all.


Post #1723. The voice of reason in a sea of negativity. Maybe a little outdated now.


----------



## thenegotiator

Jets99 said:


> Dont get me wrong. I like your posts and salute your aversion to caps.
> 
> But did you actually own APPL and did you actually sell at 700 ?? If so congrats. If not...
> 
> I own it and didn't. But agree it's not tool late to keep holding.
> 
> This will be an interesting year for APPL shareholders. They can't hold so much cash forever and split is possible.
> 
> I had put a cap on my APPL but tempted again. Hissing snake and cat have me confused.



jets
u are gettin a little wrong impression about me.
it is not that i do not like large caps.
the tech arena is new to me .
therefore i am venturing some trades in certain stocks.
so far 3 of them 
AAPL , AMD and INTC.
ask Gob when i bought AAPL and when i sold it.
when i sold it i mentioned to him that from that point the stock was going to head lower.
i have no crystal ball as to when it would have happened .
nevertheless it did .
and it did because it had to do it.
period.
once a trend is broken it is broken .... period.
i am used to that because i trade futures and stocks cannot be that dissimilar after all.
it was not at the 700 bux level it was after the initial retracement that i bought it.
one trade only.
just one.
he has my PM.
i have his PM's i think .
box got very full at one point so i may still have it.
i miss that guy.
honest guy.
gut beaten up here in this thread for no reason at all.
from my end he just heard warnings. warning signs i placed in front of him as a trader .
just as a trader.
very knowledgeable guy.
i do not publicize all my trades.
if he is still around he might have my PMS.
better to hear from someone else.
therefore there is no bias in the saying.


i am also saying to ya that this gap that formed WILL BE FILLED .
When ?
who knows.
nevertheless write in ur book that the 60 bux gap area will be filled in time.
tough to time it.
sometimes u enter a trade a tad early or a lot early , but if u do believe and understand whats behind the move things will happen.
it may take 1 week, one month one year .
nobody knows brother.

.

ur cat story is good.
do not like snakes personally.
nevertheless i like the way they survive and prey.
luv cats and dogs.
i am a superstitious guy.... believe it or not ... unless u are joking around.
everyone has some sort of sixth sense ... do we not?:encouragement:
GL


----------



## thenegotiator

Jets99 said:


> Post #1723. The voice of reason in a sea of negativity. Maybe a little outdated now.


i will check it.


----------



## Toronto.gal

PMREdmonton said:


> 1. I'd like a 10-for-1 split myself to put the stock around 44 right now....
> 2. plenty of room to grow without needing another split for a very long time.


*1.* IMO, a 3-for-1, or even 5-for-1 split would be better, and would still make the stock affordable to many, but without making it cheap. After all, is there any AAPL product you can buy out there @ $44? [your 10-for-1 proposal]. Even an iPod [NOT iPhone/iPad] is $300. 

*2. *Is that a key factor when deciding the split ratio? I suppose it's anybody's guess what the company would decide, though what you're hoping for is not that common, at least not with my other stocks that have split, although true enough that they were not $700 prior to the split.

The key reasons for a split are obviously to increase liquidity & to make the stock more attractive, to particularly individual investors. I also know all the reasons behind not wanting to split a stock, ie: Berkshire Hathaway, but the fact remains that times have changed, and that investors can do today what was not possible 10/20 years ago.

Generally speaking, stocks increase when companies are undervalued, but have good fundamentals.


----------



## Homerhomer

Could someone please kindly explain to me why split matters? Other than small investors being able to enter options trading I can't see any benefit (if that even is a benefit). Many can't handle 100 shares, but everyone can buy 2, what difference does it make if 2 shares turn into 20? The stock is very liquid already so that shouldn't really matter either. It's easier not to do a split than to do reverse split, I have a feeling HP would want the last two or so splits back as it was close to hitting single digits few months back.


----------



## doctrine

It does create more liquidity. It increases the number of smaller investors who will purchase shares (yes, there are investors who will purchase at $50 but not at $500+). It's also historically a sign of confidence and can help maintain market capitalization. Companies that split their stock have normally done quite well recently and often continue to do well in the near future. So there are minor practical reasons and some more significant psychological reasons why a stock split is a good idea.


----------



## jcgd

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* IMO, a 3-for-1, or even 5-for-1 split would be better, and would still make the stock affordable to many, but without making it cheap. After all, is there any AAPL product you can buy out there @ $44? [your 10-for-1 proposal]. Even an iPod [NOT iPhone/iPad] is $300.
> 
> The key reasons for a split are obviously to increase liquidity & to make the stock more attractive, to particularly individual investors. I also know all the reasons behind not wanting to split a stock, ie: Berkshire Hathaway, but the fact remains that times have changed, and that investors can do today what was not possible 10/20 years ago.
> 
> Generally speaking, stocks increase when companies are undervalued, but have good fundamentals.


I don't understand. Splitting the stock from $400 to $40 doesn't make it cheap. It doesn't change anything except the the size of the share of the company, so who gives a hoot? I know you know this, but I don't know why the price matters. The price of one stock is still under a reasonable amount of money a person would invest. If the price was $3k I could see the issue, but it isn't.

And what does the price of Apple's products have to do with the price of it's stock? Should Coca-Cola have $0.50 stock, or $3.00 stock (Price of a can or box of cans)?

"Generally speaking, stocks increase when companies are undervalued, but have good fundamentals."

So since a stock split doesn't change the valuation then it's a moot point, right?

If stock splits are actually a legitimate need then they should auto split in order to stay on the exchanges. Ie. at stock reaches $500 and it splits automatically. And if they aren't needed we should leave well enough alone. Let the companies who want to split split. Since we know it's psychological, and that is where a bunch of us make our money, I don't see the issue. If you are not willing to buy today but would buy if it split tomorrow... well...


----------



## gibor365

Homerhomer said:


> Could someone please kindly explain to me why split matters? .


Just phycological thing... I know many investors who buying only in lots of 100 . They just cannot afford it with current price or they just feel better if holding big number of shares  
Other thing that if will be split 10/1 , many investors would be able to DRIP dividends, so more shares will be bought on payment day


----------



## gibor365

APPL yield is already 2.41% that is much higher than S&P500 average yield 2.08%...
The question if AAPL gonna increase div on annual basis


----------



## humble_pie

does anyone happen to have the text or texts in which buffett has set forth his reasons for never splitting ? they would be interesting reads. I'd post if i had the citations but i'm not a big buffett follower or buffett fan, so i don't know.

canadian legend stephen jarislowsky used to say that stock splits meant holdings slipping gradually from strong investor hands (ie institutional funds that can easily manage $700 per share) into weak investor hands (ie jitterbuggy retail investors.)

options traders generally would favour no split. No split means far greater leverage per contract, therefore fewer contracts & lower commish.


----------



## Toronto.gal

jcgd said:


> 1. And what does the price of Apple's products have to do with the price of it's stock?
> 2. "Generally speaking, stocks increase when companies are undervalued, but have good fundamentals." So since a stock split doesn't change the valuation then it's a moot point, right?


*1.* Are you saying that its products had nothing to do with the price of the stock? Take a look at the stock price from 2001 to its all time high, and then find me a comparable stock in terms of stock appreciation in same time period that was NOT related to the company's products.

I would also suggest you study some of the indicators of the stock market, ie: financial/non-financial & even the non-objective ones.

*2.* Many believe that a split does nothing for the stock, except make it decrease, however, split or not, the obvious is that stocks with good fundamentals & undervalued, do increase, and if the opposite is true, then they would decrease.


----------



## namelessone

gibor said:


> Just phycological thing... I know many investors who buying only in lots of 100 . They just cannot afford it with current price or they just feel better if holding big number of shares
> Other thing that if will be split 10/1 , many investors would be able to DRIP dividends, so more shares will be bought on payment day


Are you saying the reason AAPL has such a low PE is because it's share price is too high? That splitting its stock will push the stock price higher?
Look at GOOG, $750/share, it's PE is 20. On the other hand, AAPL has share price of $450 and PE of 10. 
This PE difference tells us one thing: Google's business model has more growth and staying power than Apple's.
Speculators are not eough force to drive the stock price in the long term. Investors are the key factor.


----------



## gibor365

namelessone said:


> Are you saying the reason AAPL has such a low PE is because it's share price is too high? That splitting its stock will push the stock price higher?
> Look at GOOG, $750/share, it's PE is 20. On the other hand, AAPL has share price of $450 and PE of 10.
> This PE difference tells us one thing: Google's business model has more growth and staying power than Apple's.
> Speculators are not eough force to drive the stock price in the long term. Investors are the key factor.


I was syaing what I said...and I didn't say word about P/E


----------



## namelessone

gibor said:


> I was syaing what I said...and I didn't say word about P/E


That's what you're implying. 
Without the change in profitability, stock splittings leads to more people buying, higher stock price, thus higher PE.

if not, then this reply certainly applies to some other people.


----------



## Sampson

namelessone said:


> That's what you're implying.
> Without the change in profitability, stock splittings leads to more people buying, higher stock price, thus higher PE.


I think was is actually being implied is that many people do not buy based on financial fundamentals and on 'feeling' alone.


----------



## thenegotiator

a stock split atm is a very very bad idea.
someone in this thread made an excellent point already.
i think it is senseless to debate a stock split since nobody here has that power.
u want to trade the stock trade it.
or simply ignore that AAPl ever existed.
my 2 cents


----------



## humble_pie

humble_pie said:


> does anyone happen to have the text or texts in which buffett has set forth his reasons for never splitting ? they would be interesting reads


[SUB]nobody has the buffett texts ?

oh, well, i was just asking[/SUB]...


----------



## thenegotiator

Jets99 said:


> Post #1723. The voice of reason in a sea of negativity. Maybe a little outdated now.


i checked it.
what is the value of that post?
either way i luv reading PMR posts.
just like PBN:rolleyes2:
he most likely will have his chance to grab those very fine AAPL shares at the values he mentioned.
i mentioned where the floor is .
i cannot compare AAPL with PBN in a million years though.
problem is ... does he have the nuts to hold a falling knive?
sorry it is a falling apple.
cheers


----------



## jcgd

humble_pie said:


> [SUB]nobody has the buffett texts ?
> 
> oh, well, i was just asking[/SUB]...


I have a bunch, but either missed it or I haven't seen him mention his reasons for not splitting. I'm not sure he explained his reason for not splitting as I don't think he would see a reason to explain something for which he doesn't see a reason to do.

Buffett's letters:
http://www.rbcpa.com/WEB_letters/WEB_Letters_pre_berkshireTURNEDOFF.html
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html


----------



## namelessone

humble_pie said:


> [SUB]nobody has the buffett texts ?
> 
> oh, well, i was just asking[/SUB]...


Splitting Berkshire stock to create more liquidity
Charlie: I think the notion that liquidity of tradable common stock is a great contributor to capitalism is mostly twaddle. The liquidity gives us these crazy booms, so it has as many problems as virtues. 

But we're trying to create more peole who have the problem of owning stock worth so much that liquidity is an issue. 

Buffett: Berkshire trades $50 million of stock per day, so very few peole will have a problem sellling it. 

Source: Poor charlie's Almanack


----------



## Eder

Wow...all the AAPL negativity...people confidently calling a deeper drop ...people saying AAPL is now irrelevant etc etc. Everything changed in 1 quarter for the worlds most valuable company ?? Only 8 weeks ago Apple was Wall St's rock star now the shoe shine boy is telling me they've lost their touch.

I haven't owned this stock since 1998 but I think its time to reconsider...


----------



## thenegotiator

^this thread is getting more and more interesting.
i will try and remember ur words EDER .
just like ECA.
I cannot imagine this forum with all their sensitivity if the "Queen of Mean" ever posted here.(As if she would ever be here posting anyway LOL)
but someone like her in the trading arena as an example.
for the ones who knows who she was.

p.s i am sure that the younglings will go googling to find out who was the "queen of Mean".


----------



## Eder

I guess what I am saying is that Apple is getting into my radar as a value investor...I'll let you know if I pick some up and why and when I sell it if you would like.

(When the shine boy says nat gas is going to zero that was the time to grab ECA...but when that flea bag dog lost its quality partner Apache it was time to profit...sorry that sticks in your craw apparently)


----------



## thenegotiator

^
nah
not at all eder.
by all means let us know when u pick up AAPL.
it caught ur attn did it not?
and by the way who is the shine boy that ever said natty is going to zero dollars ?
i did not grasp that tone .
are u saying or mentioning EQUITY VAL.
Or are u saying that i made a boatload of money when natty was the obscure and solitaire loser of all times last year.
u are a funny guy .
and ECA lost APACHe/
and that is why u lost the "feel " for ECA but whats the other guy that has a boat bought back then and dumped TRP?
remember that one?
cannot remember his ID here though.
he said he was selling TRP to buy a "bigger" boat.
i see.
u are an interesting fellow.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Are you saying that its products had nothing to do with the price of the stock? Take a look at the stock price from 2001 to its all time high, and then find me a comparable stock in terms of stock appreciation in same time period that was NOT related to the company's products.


*JCGD:* you still have not responded; R U searching still? 

Btw, are you aware that AAPL stock has split in the past? If you looked at the chart, you would have seen a few splits [green S]. At that time, the split ratio = 2-for-1, but safe to say it won't be that next time around.


----------



## jcgd

Toronto.gal said:


> *JCGD:* you still have not responded; R U searching still?
> 
> Btw, are you aware that AAPL stock has split in the past? If you looked at the chart, you would have seen a few splits [green S]. At that time, the split ratio = 2-for-1, but safe to say it won't be that next time around.


Sorry, I forgot to respond. I always need a day to shed tears before I'm brave enough to come back. 

I misunderstood you. I thought you meant that the price of Apple's products had something to do with the price of the stock. Ie. Phone costs $500 so stock should be at $500. But now that I think about it, you wouldn't say that. Would you?

I knew it split in 2000. Didn't realize it split in 2005 though.


----------



## thenegotiator

jcgd said:


> Sorry, I forgot to respond. I always need a day to shed tears before I'm brave enough to come back.
> 
> I misunderstood you. I thought you meant that the price of Apple's products had something to do with the price of the stock. Ie. Phone costs $500 so stock should be at $500. But now that I think about it, you wouldn't say that. Would you?
> 
> I knew it split in 2000. Didn't realize it split in 2005 though.


why were u sheding tears man ?
were u holding AAPL?pre report?
no pun intended


----------



## Toronto.gal

jcgd said:


> Phone costs $500 so stock should be at $500. But now that I think about it, you wouldn't say that. Would you?


LOL, that made me laugh. But noooooo, that's not at all what I meant. :biggrin:

Yes, stock split in 1987/2000/2005. 

*TN:* you misunderstood; it's me that makes jcgd cry. :frown:


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> LOL, that made me laugh. But noooooo, that's not at all what I meant. :biggrin:
> 
> Yes, stock split in 1987/2000/2005.
> 
> *TN:* you misunderstood; it's me that makes jcgd cry. :frown:



ok
Tgal.
cool.
jcgd do not cry man
men don't cry right?:encouragement:


----------



## thenegotiator

today's end of trading day news should suffice to close the gap on AAPl.
from there..........hmmmmm ask hawkdog.
he will gladly tell all of ya what will happen.:tongue-new:


----------



## andrewf

Why not wait until it trades above 200 day SMA?


----------



## thenegotiator

i am not a buyer here, nor was a buyer at the lower low.
the gap will be filled.
i said that before did i not?
i am waiting for the right price which is not at this levels.
it will take quite sometime for my price to show up.
u are away about 12 bux to close that gap.
bulls will try and close it with the latest news.
not a game changer IMO


----------



## HaroldCrump

Today's price action may have something to do with the activist hedge fund Greenlight Capital suing Apple to extract more cash for shareholders.
Perhaps the market believes Apple might give in.

During Steve Jobs' days, they would have been told to go fry some other fish, but Jobs is long gone now.


----------



## thenegotiator

HaroldCrump said:


> Today's price action may have something to do with the activist hedge fund Greenlight Capital suing Apple to extract more cash for shareholders.
> Perhaps the market believes Apple might give in.
> 
> During Steve Jobs' days, they would have been told to go fry some other fish, but Jobs is long gone now.


absolutely.
the mentor and creator is dead .
therefore that is what happens with AAPl.
no Steve no aapl.


----------



## thenegotiator

gap almost completely filled.
i thought i said it would be filled.
it is amazing how this things work is it not?


----------



## thenegotiator

gap closed
Argo
GL with ur 525.
u are going to need it


----------



## Vitalogy80

thenegotiator said:


> today's end of trading day news should suffice to close the gap on AAPl.
> from there..........hmmmmm ask hawkdog.
> he will gladly tell all of ya what will happen.:tongue-new:


Isn't there a gap around 698 that needs to be filled? How does one decide what gaps need to be filled and what ones don't?


----------



## thenegotiator

Vitalogy80 said:


> Isn't there a gap around 698 that needs to be filled? How does one decide what gaps need to be filled and what ones don't?


there is no gap around 698 that i can see in the chart.
large gaps in any stock do get filled sooner or later.
on aapl case it was sooner than i expected.
500 bux is possible though.
quite a stretch but if they come up with some good news then .....
i still believe that it will go lower.
the trend is ur friend till it ends.
do not get me wrong price prediction is very very difficult.
GL


----------



## Vitalogy80

thenegotiator said:


> there is no gap around 698 that i can see in the chart.
> large gaps in any stock do get filled sooner or later.
> on aapl case it was sooner than i expected.
> 500 bux is possible though.
> quite a stretch but if they come up with some good news then .....
> i still believe that it will go lower.
> the trend is ur friend till it ends.
> do not get me wrong price prediction is very very difficult.
> GL


There's a gap from $700.01 to $695.12....I really have no idea if that is considered a large gap or not.


----------



## thenegotiator

Vitalogy80 said:


> There's a gap from $700.01 to $695.12....I really have no idea if that is considered a large gap or not.


vita.
i am not going to bother and checking the gap u mentioned.
if it exists we are not trading up there any longer.
i worry about very large gaps only.
my position remains to buy at the very bottom only .
cheers

p.s 
by the way we do not choose what gaps are filled neither the mkt does .
it just gets filled.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> 1. large gaps in any stock do get filled sooner or later....i worry about very large gaps only.
> 2. my position remains to buy at the very bottom only.


*1.* True enough, but the pricing process, which drives certain large & significant gaps in general, could take a very long time to fill, as in weeks/months & years even.

You often talk about these 'gaps', and though some might think you're gap obsessed, lol, recognizing the significant ones, is actually important [and not only for traders].

*2.* Easier said than done as who knows the exact bottom? Even gap fills only become crystal clear in hindsight. For example, who recognized the so called 'exhaustion gap' back in Sept./2012 when the uptrend was coming to an end? 

Identifying short/long-term catalysts [what u also often mention], is easier said for sure.

Potential catalyst?

Why an iWatch and not iGlasses?

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/11/why-apple-is-working-on-an-iwatch-and-not-iglasses/

How different would it look from Sony's, I wonder.


----------



## andrewf

Gaps are always filled, sooner or later. Except when they're not. 

Sometimes I wonder about technical analysis...


----------



## andrewf

So an iPod nano on a wrist-strap?

I don't see it being a big seller.


----------



## Toronto.gal

andrewf said:


> So an iPod nano on a wrist-strap?
> 
> I don't see it being a big seller.


With all these iGadgets getting smaller and smaller, pretty soon everyone will be wearing not only iWatches, but also iGlasses. :rolleyes2:


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* True enough, but the pricing process, which drives certain large & significant gaps in general, could take a very long time to fill, as in weeks/months & years even.
> 
> You often talk about these 'gaps', and though some might think you're gap obsessed, lol, recognizing the significant ones, is actually important [and not only for traders].
> 
> *2.* Easier said than done as who knows the exact bottom? Even gap fills only become crystal clear in hindsight. For example, who recognized the so called 'exhaustion gap' back in Sept./2012 when the uptrend was coming to an end?
> 
> Identifying short/long-term catalysts [what u also often mention], is easier said for sure.
> 
> Potential catalyst?
> 
> Why an iWatch and not iGlasses?
> 
> http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/11/why-apple-is-working-on-an-iwatch-and-not-iglasses/
> 
> How different would it look from Sony's, I wonder.




OH BOY OH BOY.
I AM GAP OBSESSSED LOL:biggrin:

ok lets start from the beginning.
timing is impossible to predict ... u are right on the money.
and that is why u look at the options chain OI ... volume and dates...
damn option sellers u are going to say.
large gaps are of my utmost interest .... always.
the same thing are large dips.... always.
this gap on AAPL got filled pretty quick with the latest announcement.
that is all .
as for price....
350 solid support.... in time

to gap or not to gap that is the question.
DAMN GLAD TO SEE YA BACK:encouragement:


----------



## thenegotiator

andrewf said:


> Gaps are always filled, sooner or later. Except when they're not.
> 
> Sometimes I wonder about technical analysis...


hmmm
and can u point to me a large cap company chart that gaps were not filled?
go look around .
find me one.

maybe i am misunderstanding u?
what are the exceptions?


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> So an iPod nano on a wrist-strap?
> 
> I don't see it being a big seller.


I don't either; I'm actually skeptical that this will be a real product as opposed to a rumour, even if it came from reputable sources. Or if they do bring it out, it'll be one of those afterthought items that they show near the end of a presentation on new products and updates.


----------



## andrewf

Blackberry (RIM), in late 2008.

I'm sure Nortel has a big gap that was never filled.


----------



## thenegotiator

andrewf said:


> Blackberry (RIM), in late 2008.
> 
> I'm sure Nortel has a big gap that was never filled.


rim gap from 08 was filled in 09.
every gap gets filled.
timing is impossible to predict.
sorry .
try again
maybe nortel?

do not have nortel
post it then


----------



## andrewf

I was looking at a weekly chart. BB went from $107 to 72 in one week. It didn't fill that 'gap' in 2009.


----------



## SpIcEz

brad said:


> I don't either; I'm actually skeptical that this will be a real product as opposed to a rumour, even if it came from reputable sources. Or if they do bring it out, it'll be one of those afterthought items that they show near the end of a presentation on new products and updates.


I was thinking about that today.

I think a standalone watch device would be useless too.

However, if it was an accessory, which (through bluetooth or wifi) would complement an Iphone, Ipad and/or Ipod, that would be a whole other thing.
- Tells time;
- Controls calls;
- Controls music;
- has 1 or 2 widgets display from apps on the idevice... (stock ticker, weather, etc...)

I think, done properly, that could be a good product. Same could go for Android.

But I agree, a wrist watch device that tries to be an iphone is not a good idea.


----------



## andrewf

Maybe with inductive charging it would not be too bad. But having to charge your 'watch' every day could get old...


----------



## Argonaut

The Gap (GPS, but why not GAP?) had a gap up which was mostly filled by a gap down last year.

PharmaGap Inc. (GAP on the TSX Venture) had a mega gap up which was filled in 2008. It had a smaller gap down in August 2009 which is unfilled. It's now worth less than a penny.

I have a slight gap in my teeth which has never been filled.


----------



## Vitalogy80

andrewf said:


> Gaps are always filled, sooner or later. Except when they're not.
> 
> Sometimes I wonder about technical analysis...


Exactly...it makes no sense. They're always going on and on about filling a gap, and love to leave the time frame open so they're never wrong. But then also claim that not all gaps get filled. I guess it's like the old saying "50% of the time it works everytime".

Is there some big gap god in the sky that will say that Apple will fill the gap around 400 but not the gap around 350? Thou shalt not fill this gap!


----------



## Toronto.gal

andrewf said:


> 1. Gaps are always filled, sooner or later. *Except when they're not. *
> 2. Sometimes I wonder about technical analysis...


1. There are exceptions, of course, but would you not agree that the majority fill eventually?
2. I wonder all the time, lol. I do not use TA as religiously as some do, but it offers a good guideline IMHO.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. There are exceptions, of course, but would you not agree that the majority fill eventually?
> 2. I wonder all the time, lol. I do not use TA as religiously as some do, but it offers a good guideline IMHO.


There's also a gap with AAPL from 2006 that was between $55 and $60...now, $5 isn't a very large gap, but back then it was almost 10% which at the time was huge. So why wasn't that Gap filled? Or are we going to fill it now? Nevermind that AAPL has about $150/share in Cash.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Hmmm, when I said that gaps can take forever to fill, I should have added, if ever.

Satisfied now Vitalogy?


----------



## Vitalogy80

Toronto.gal said:


> Hmmm, when I said that gaps can take forever to fill, I should have added, if ever.
> 
> Satisfied now Vitalogy?


Well not really, I'm just confused about the whole TA...for example, if you believe that all/most gaps get filled and AAPL gaps up to $60 back in 2006, at what point do you either stop shorting AAPL as it rises to $100 or do you say to yourself, maybe this is a breakaway gap that will not get filled and just go long?? If you're only using Technical Analysis, which a lot of people seem to do, how do say what gaps get filled and what don't? I know people that said AAPL was going into the 400's back when it dropped below $685. That seemed like crazy talk at the time, but it turned out they were right. But when it dropped to $685, there was a gap at $700 and a gap in the 400's...which one seemed more likely to be fillled?

I guess you could say that I don't understand Technical Analysis at all...to me it just seems like Voodoo and flipping over tarot cards.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Vitalogy80 said:


> 1. If you're only using Technical Analysis....
> 2. I guess you could say that I don't understand Technical Analysis at all...to me it just seems like Voodoo and flipping over tarot cards.


1. I certainly do not rely on TA alone; as mentioned upthread, I use it as a mere guideline.

2. A good book might clear your confusion. If you then conclude TA= voodoo, then stick to fundamental or whatever other analysis works for you.


----------



## thenegotiator

Argonaut said:


> The Gap (GPS, but why not GAP?) had a gap up which was mostly filled by a gap down last year.
> 
> PharmaGap Inc. (GAP on the TSX Venture) had a mega gap up which was filled in 2008. It had a smaller gap down in August 2009 which is unfilled. It's now worth less than a penny.
> 
> I have a slight gap in my teeth which has never been filled.



hehe
ARGENTUM
i like sarcasm:tongue-new:
just like i like the likes of like gaps.
by the way u should have a look at ur slight gap in the teeth .
it can get a lot bigger.:biggrin:
when u see ur 525 on aapl let me know.


----------



## thenegotiator

Vitalogy80 said:


> Well not really, I'm just confused about the whole TA...for example, if you believe that all/most gaps get filled and AAPL gaps up to $60 back in 2006, at what point do you either stop shorting AAPL as it rises to $100 or do you say to yourself, maybe this is a breakaway gap that will not get filled and just go long?? If you're only using Technical Analysis, which a lot of people seem to do, how do say what gaps get filled and what don't? I know people that said AAPL was going into the 400's back when it dropped below $685. That seemed like crazy talk at the time, but it turned out they were right. But when it dropped to $685, there was a gap at $700 and a gap in the 400's...which one seemed more likely to be fillled?
> 
> I guess you could say that I don't understand Technical Analysis at all...to me it just seems like Voodoo and flipping over tarot cards.



but of coarse
TA is just like voodoo or tarot cards.
them boys at wall street look like voodoo and palm reader players.
anyway.
gap or no gap ur gap .
whatever man

oh by the way 
yes they pick which ones get filled and which ones do not get filled wow....


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Hmmm, when I said that gaps can take forever to fill, I should have added, if ever.
> 
> Satisfied now Vitalogy?


people never get satisfied here.
let me get my crystal ball.
i know for a fact that this gap did get filled.
apparently i am dumb and blind


----------



## Vitalogy80

thenegotiator said:


> but of coarse
> TA is just like voodoo or tarot cards.
> them boys at wall street look like voodoo and palm reader players.
> anyway.
> gap or no gap ur gap .
> whatever man
> 
> oh by the way
> yes they pick which ones get filled and which ones do not get filled wow....


I'm not sure why insulting me helps to get your point across...I don't really understand what you're getting at. Why doesn't the gap between $55 and $60 get filled or the gap around $700 but we are required to fill the one in the low 400's? Yes, we are closer to 400 than 700, but we we weren't in the 600's when people were calling for this gap.

You're basically saying we need to fill this gap...why? Why does is this gap required to be filled but others aren't?


----------



## thenegotiator

Vitalogy80 said:


> I'm not sure why insulting me helps to get your point across...I don't really understand what you're getting at. Why doesn't the gap between $55 and $60 get filled or the gap around $700 but we are required to fill the one in the low 400's? Yes, we are closer to 400 than 700, but we we weren't in the 600's when people were calling for this gap.
> 
> You're basically saying we need to fill this gap...why? Why does is this gap required to be filled but others aren't?


i am insulting you?
cmon man.
u just compared TA with voodoo and tarot or whatever.
that is not insulting?
give me a break
in my empirical experience with stocks in general gaps get filled.
i see that all the time and aapl is not different.
there is a big difference between a 60/70 bux drop to a 5 bux drop .
i do not micromanage small drops.
i look into very large drops.
ia m looking at the gold chart now.
what do u think is going to happen in the long term with this chart .
not one day ok?
look at the chart.
i do not base my trading on charts only .
u have many other factors around it .
anything... commodities stocks whatever...
u are making a big deal about it.
i made several calls lately .
i am still short FB .was it chart based only ?
absolutely not.
just chill a bit man.
and by the way i did not offend u .
u called me out and i backed my thesis.
and the thesis remains for the long term .
aapl will find the bottom at solid support at 350.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I actually found the 'Voodoo/flipping over tarot cards' comments rather amusing, though it would be better to mock a technique & its users after one is more informed about it.

I myself wasn't a believer at first, but that was when I knew next to nothing about TA.

It hasn't been confirmed by AAPL yet, but as per a Bloomberg article last night, there appears to be a 'team of about 100 product designers working on a wristwatch..'


----------



## Vitalogy80

Toronto.gal said:


> I actually found the 'Voodoo/flipping over tarot cards' comments rather amusing, though it would be better to mock a technique & its users after one is more informed about it.
> 
> I myself wasn't a believer at first, but that was when I knew next to nothing about TA.
> 
> It hasn't been confirmed by AAPL yet, but as per a Bloomberg article last night, there appears to be a 'team of about 100 product designers working on a wristwatch..'


I wasn't mocking the people that practice TA, I just said that it appears to me that it's just Voodoo because I can't make any sense out of it. Mind you I can't make any sense of AAPL at this level either...so maybe that's saying something.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Vitalogy80 said:


> 1. I wasn't mocking the people that practice TA..
> 2. Mind you I can't make any sense of AAPL at this level either..


1. Even if you were, so what? Like I said, you made me laugh.  
It's an anonymous public forum after all, not a classroom. My point was merely that if you're confused about the TA aspect [I was too], that a lot can be cleared up if you're willing to learn more about it, that's it.

2. You're not alone. A lot about the stock market is completely irrational these days, but the fundamentals will not disappear anytime soon.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Getting close to the psychological $400 mark. 

So at this point, what do AAPL shareholders would like the company to do with its billions?


----------



## Spudd

I would like them to split the stock (which shouldn't cost much), and invest into R&D and marketing with some of their billions. 

I really want to buy more but I'm holding off until it looks like there's a slight uptrend at least.


----------



## andrewf

There's a lot of people who thought $400 was impossible 6-9 months ago... particularly without a matching crash in the S&P 500 as a whole.

For AAPL, its own shares are a screaming buy.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Even at the start of the year, that near $400 price had seemed impossible to me.

I also favour a split + a div. yield of about 3%-4%; $137B can do plenty!

What will the next catalyst be? :confused2:


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> For AAPL, its own shares are a screaming buy.


Warren Buffet agrees: http://9to5mac.com/2013/03/04/berks...e-for-tim-cook-ignore-einhorn-buy-back-stock/


----------



## andrewf

I mean, the market can have all the doubts it wants about AAPL, but the company itself should be confident in its own strategy, and demonstrate that confidence by buying back stock. Issuing/increasing dividends when the share price is so low speaks to lack of confidence in the company's future. AAPL could get around the issue of its cash being stuck overseas by borrowing domestically. AAPL's cost of debt and leverage would be very low. They can continue to wait to see if a tax amnesty or changes in corp tax come along.


----------



## Toronto.gal

andrewf said:


> Issuing/increasing dividends when the share price is so low speaks to lack of confidence in the company's future


I would agree, but with $137B? I don't think so.

Does Buffett own any other tech stock other than IBM?


----------



## Spudd

It's taking ALL my willpower not to buy it right now.


----------



## andrewf

Were I looking to buy, I'd wait for some indication that the current downtrend is over and reversing. Like being over 50 day SMA or ideally 200 day... I'm sure many people have tried to catch the falling knife.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> I'm sure many people have tried to catch the falling knife.


I didn't  , but averaged down at openning today 

At current price yield is close to 2.5% that is pretty good and hope dividends will be increased in summer


----------



## Dibs

How an Internet-trained Apple analyst lost tens of millions of other peoples' money
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-zaky-bullish-cross/


----------



## andrewf

^ Reminds me of some members of this forum. Overconfidence...


----------



## kcowan

Google trends is forecasting an uptick on sales of the iPhone 5S and 6. How ironic!


----------



## CashMoney101

LOL I was just about to ask what that guy's CMForum username was.... :stupid:


----------



## Toronto.gal

No need to laugh at anyone. Haven't we all made mistakes?


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> No need to laugh at anyone. Haven't we all made mistakes?


Fully agree, not nice to be happy because someone was wrong and possibly lost money.


----------



## andrewf

It makes me sad. I've been there, myself.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> It makes me sad. I've been there, myself.


I think , everyone has been there  , even Buffer


----------



## Squash500

Dibs said:


> How an Internet-trained Apple analyst lost tens of millions of other peoples' money
> http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-zaky-bullish-cross/


 It shows you how a lot of this technical analysis and RSI oscillators etc can basically be just be a bunch of mumbo-jumbo as Vitalogy 80 correctly stated upthread. I personally don't trust these wall street analysts one bit...too much conflict of interest out there. Does anyone here remember Henry Blodget--LMAO.


----------



## Squash500

Toronto.gal said:


> I actually found the 'Voodoo/flipping over tarot cards' comments rather amusing, though it would be better to mock a technique & its users after one is more informed about it.
> 
> I myself wasn't a believer at first, but that was when I knew next to nothing about TA.
> 
> It hasn't been confirmed by AAPL yet, but as per a Bloomberg article last night, there appears to be a 'team of about 100 product designers working on a wristwatch..'


 If technical analysis was so great then why doesn't every investor practice it? Just as many investors IMHO thought Apple would hit $1000 as those investors who thought that Apple would hit $450 etc. That's why there's put and call options on stocks like apple because nobody knows for sure what going to happen in the future.

I'm sure not too many investors thought that Atlantic Power (ATP) would lose 50% of its share price in less than a week of trading?

Personally I'm much more a believer in EMH (Efficient market Hypothesis) as opposed to technical analysis any day of the week. As usual just my opinion. I personally don't believe in active management (investing in Individual stocks or mutual funds) much at all. I prefer to invest in ETFS.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Squash500 said:


> 1. If technical analysis was so great then why doesn't every investor practice it?
> 2. I'm not too many investors thought that Atlantic Power (ATP) would lose 50% of its share price in less than a week of trading?


1. Where did I say it was great? In fact, I *never* speak about TA techniques here. 
2. Huge drops are not rare occurrences anymore. I can think of a few just this year.


----------



## Squash500

Toronto.gal said:


> 1. Where did I say it was great? In fact, I *never* speak about TA techniques here.
> 2. Huge drops are not rare occurrences anymore. I can think of a few just this year.


 I guess you were saying upthread that unless you had thoroughly read and studied TA techniques that different forum members weren't qualified to make an opinion.. as to whether TA has any merit or not?. It's not my intent to get in an argument with you....but IMHO it just basically comes down to the basic debate between active and passive management where IMHO there will never be a true consensus either way.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Squash500 said:


> 1. *I guess* you were saying upthread that unless you had thoroughly read and studied TA techniques that different forum members weren't qualified to make an opinion.
> 2. It's not my intent to get in an argument with you....


*1.* Seems that you prefer to 'guess' instead of read what has actually been written. :rolleyes2:

*A member made the following comment:*

'I guess you could say that I don't understand Technical Analysis at all...to me it just seems like Voodoo and flipping over tarot cards.'

*To which I responded:*

'A good book might clear your confusion. If you then conclude TA= voodoo, then stick to fundamental or whatever other analysis works for you.'

What is your problem anyway? Vodoo/tarot cards = a valid opinion of TA to you, but recommending a book is a sin? Btw, I caught your original 1st post before you amended it.

*2.* That was exactly your intent! Seems you're bored this evening, LOL.

You say you don't believe in TA, so what did you bother writing the above 2 posts? How about writing something you 'believe in'? Anything interesting you can say about AAPL?


----------



## Squash500

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Seems that you prefer to 'guess' instead of read what has actually been written. :rolleyes2:
> 
> *A member made the following comment:*
> 
> 'I guess you could say that I don't understand Technical Analysis at all...to me it just seems like Voodoo and flipping over tarot cards.'
> 
> *To which I responded:*
> 
> 'A good book might clear your confusion. If you then conclude TA= voodoo, then stick to fundamental or whatever other analysis works for you.'
> 
> What is your problem anyway? Vodoo/tarot cards = a valid opinion of TA to you, but recommending a book is a sin? Btw, I caught your original 1st post before you amended it.
> 
> *2.* That was exactly your intent! Seems you're bored this evening, LOL.
> 
> You say you don't believe in TA, so what did you bother writing the above 2 posts? How about writing something you 'believe in'? Anything interesting you can say about AAPL?


Hi TG....I apologize if I offended you in any way ....I guess I was bored this evening---LOL. Anyway I had a look at AAPL and noticed that the stock would have to rebound by 63.5% just to get back to its 52 week high of $705.07. I went on the TDW website and tried to read some TA data on APPL. Stuff like support at $396.10 and resistance at $571.10.

The problem is I don't believe any of it---LOL. Or maybe I just don't understand it? Anyway I have no clue whether AAPL will go up or down from it's closing price of 431.14. All I can say is thank goodness that ETF's exist....individual stocks obviously aren't my thing. Have a good evening TG!


----------



## humble_pie

Squash500 said:


> ... tried to read some TA data on APPL. Stuff like support at $396.10 and resistance at $571.10.
> 
> The problem is I don't believe any of it---LOL. Or maybe I just don't understand it? Anyway I have no clue whether AAPL will go up or down from it's closing price of 431.14. All I can say is thank goodness that ETF's exist....individual stocks obviously aren't my thing



my how this thread has deteriorated. Now novices w less than 2 years of investment experience are saying they have zero TA skills & no knowledge but somehow they have an opinion on AAPL - one of the most dangerous stocks of all time - that is worth publishing?

GOB sweet prince wherefore art thou.


----------



## Squash500

humble_pie said:


> my how this thread has deteriorated. Now novices w less than 2 years of investment experience are saying they have zero TA skills & no knowledge but somehow they have an opinion on AAPL - one of the most dangerous stocks of all time - that is worth publishing?
> 
> GOB sweet prince wherefore art thou.


HP you make me laugh dude. I would love to hear your esteemed opinion on AAPL. Maybe you'll be the next Andy Zaky...the supposed internet expert-guru who lost his clients millions of dollars on Apple--LMAO.


----------



## humble_pie

squash good thing you've sentenced yourself to the etfs for all time ... best for someone like u to stay far away from options & AAPL ...


----------



## Squash500

humble_pie said:


> squash good thing you've sentenced yourself to the etfs for all time ... best for someone like u to stay far away from options & AAPL ...


 100% correct HP....and I also avoid having to pay guys like Andy Zaky for awful advice....by just keeping things simple and investing exclusively in ETFS.


----------



## Vitalogy80

humble_pie said:


> my how this thread has deteriorated. Now novices w less than 2 years of investment experience are saying they have zero TA skills & no knowledge but somehow they have an opinion on AAPL - one of the most dangerous stocks of all time - that is worth publishing?
> 
> GOB sweet prince wherefore art thou.


Curious why you'd say Apple is one of the most dangerous stocks of all time...I would agree with you if you said it was a volatile stock, but dangerous? If you had invested in Apple in any point in the past 10 years and not sold, you would be up significantly...well at least that true up until 6 months ago. Even with the 40% drop, Apple has still made a lot of people rich over the past 10 years. 

I guess the lesson is diversification is very important...and don't listen to Analysts.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Vitalogy80 said:


> If you had invested in Apple in any point in the past 10 years and not sold, you would be up significantly....


Exactly! But seems you don't understand either TA or sarcastic humour. :chuncky:

I'm up 120%, and did not buy 10 years ago, but just over 3 years ago. 

*Squash:* no offense taken, but I would appreciate if in future you address me, that you would stop putting words in my mouth. Thanks.


----------



## Squash500

Toronto.gal said:


> Exactly! But seems you don't understand either TA or sarcastic humour. :chuncky:
> 
> I'm up 120%, and did not buy 10 years ago, but just over 3 years ago.
> 
> *Squash:* no offense taken, but I would appreciate if in future you address me, that you would stop putting words in my mouth. Thanks.


Fair enough TG....point well taken.


----------



## none

Wow. I just read almost this entire thread. What a trainwreck!

Great example of someone falling in love with a stock and others believing the hype. Reminds me a lot of Canada's current RES real estate Market.


----------



## jcgd

What a lesson is the way I see it. I missed the boat with Apple and while trying to catch up I ended up losing some money, gaining some money and then walking away having lost in total around $5. I'm just glad my lesson only cost me $5. One of the cheaper ones so far considering I took this one investing course (rode Mako Surgical down) that cost me almost $1000 in a month or so. I don't mind paying for an education so much, but I don't want to overpay for one either. 

Also lost around $600-$800 on Arcos Dorados too. I can't tell you why the price dropped, but I can tell you why I shouldn't have been in the position in the first place.

$1600 doesn't seem like much, but those two lessons cost me about 10% of my net worth at the time.


----------



## none

I'm still new to all this and I understand things are always clear in retrospect. I agree with you that there are some great lessons in this thread.

One thing that I find interesting is how to assign value and risk within the context of speculation. TO me it seems like a massive crapshoot in most cases.

I know I drone on about it a lot but that's what i don't get about Res real estate right now. To me, it looks like apple at $700 with the exception that there is more than abundant information that there is going to be a large correction of leveraged assets. It's sad that people are going to lose a lot of money but I will have no sympathy for anyone who has purchased a house in the last 4 years and loses a ton. The information is bashing them right in the face.


----------



## jcgd

I generally agree with you on real estate, but it's easy for me to have an opinion because I have no real estate, thus no money on the line.

I have to say though, even in retrospect I don't think Apple was or is expensive. I think it still appears cheap, but that assumes that Apple's future looks like its past. I think that people are afraid to value Apple more expensively because it's very hard to tell when the company or it's products may go out of favour. I also don't think Apple is run particularly well. I mean, they are sitting on $130 billion. What the heck are you going to do with that much money? So far they have been earning little on it. Use it or lost it in my opinion. I also think Tim Cook is weak. Compared to Jobs at least. Big shoes to fill and I don't think Cook is powerful/ controversial enough to fill them.

I personally think the best use is a large stock buy back, but I wish they could do it first and then tell the world so they can get cheaper prices because you know if they announce a buy back the price will likely jump and they will create less value in the share repurchases. 

Many people would prefer a dividend bump but I think that at this time that would be a mistake and a sign a weakness. I would buy back first and then increase the dividend in a regular fashion afterwards. Kind of like two catalysts for the price of one. I think the long term value would be the greatest this way.


----------



## none

For me I just don't like apple products that much. In many ways I find the OS's really control freaky annoying (yes I am working on an air and have an iphone 4) <face palm>

I was forced to move from linux but like command line and was offered a pristine unlocked iphone 4 for $120.


----------



## jcgd

As soon as I hit my 20s, five years ago, my keen-ness for technology went kaput. I have enough trouble trying to change the input on my tv without messing with linux. When I was a kid I liked to play with code, but it's since left me in the dust and I can't be bothered to get back into it. Investing is my hobby and passion now. I don't find I have much time to spare any more. I probably read investing type material for 5 hours a day on average. 

I think this is why I like Apple products. I like the idea of one button that does most things for me. It seems I'm trying to go back more than I'm trying to go forward, haha.


----------



## kcowan

One thing that people mistake about AAPL is to infer that they care about market share. They never have. They care about profit. You can think of Samsung as the new Microsoft. Apple will easily lose share to them while they continue to rake in higher profit margins. This is why I hold AAPL for the long term. The dividend is just a recent bonus.

(And I own a Samsung phone, an HP laptop and DW has an iPad.)


----------



## gibor365

is poised to boost its dividend by more than a half, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, providing investors hit by a share slump with one of the highest yields in the U.S. technology industry.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/apple-seen-raising-dividend-more-than-50-to-16-billion.html


----------



## Spudd

According to analysts doesn't mean much when it comes to Apple. I won't believe it until it's according to Apple.


----------



## gibor365

Spudd said:


> According to analysts doesn't mean much when it comes to Apple. I won't believe it until it's according to Apple.


when it comes to AAPL it means exactly like for any other stock  when analysts were talking a lot that AAPL gonna introduce dividends, AAPL did it...


----------



## avrex

wow.
I can't be the only one out there that is getting beat up :black_eyed: by today's price movement. Apple (APPL)

The one good thing about option contracts is that they have an expiry date. (mine is due this Friday).
It forces you to do something / make a decision.
I've got some research to do, but I'm thinking about climbing back into the ring for another beating.


----------



## larry81

HELLO ANDY ZAKY, ARE YOU THERE ?

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-zaky-bullish-cross/


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Great article, thanks Larry.


----------



## thenegotiator

6 days till we hit support at 350?
it will be all about earnings.
actually according to G&M EPS has been lowered to 10.37.
that is what i see in my screen.
they miss analyst estimates............that is all there is to it.
it still looks like the path of least resistance.
either way what do i know ... he.
disclosure i hold no positions nor PUTS in the above mentioned stock


----------



## kcowan

I have never seen so much rumour get priced into a stock. It has become a speculators dream. Still love those divvies though.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> 6 days till we hit support at 350?


Yet another correct prediction, that AAPL would fall below $400.

*kcowan:* Ditto on the last 2 points!


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Yet another correct prediction, that AAPL would fall below $400.
> 
> *kcowan:* Ditto on the last 2 points!


lol.
from all predictions i have been making the only ones that are wrong is in natural gas.:biggrin:
therefore i decided to buy some natural gas today and ride the rally.
i just cannot beat Goldman Sachs.
go figure that one.
the most prescient analyst that i do follow was off by much more than I was on today's injection number.
therefore if u cannot fight the tape might as well join it right?


----------



## thenegotiator

kcowan said:


> I have never seen so much rumour get priced into a stock. It has become a speculators dream. Still love those divvies though.


it sure is a divvy lover stock.
and yet again lets see the impact in the mkets if they post another bad quarter.
If i was to hold any divvys stock atm I would rather buy MCD.
i am poor therefore i cannot afford pricey stocks:biggrin:


----------



## thenegotiator

today's close on AAPL is showing a POSSIBLE reversal indicator.
we have a gap around the lower area of 460 bux.
IF THEY ANNOUNCE GOOD QUARTER RESULTS there is a very good chance that the stock will rally strongly on short covering.
today's close was very very important for aapl shareholders ... believe it or not.
whoever is holding this stock should thank the options expiry today.
long term my thesis that it will retest 350 bux remains though.
it is a very solid support area for this stock.
now all that i am saying here is if the world does not fall apart tomorrow or next week
GL to the share holders of this stock.


----------



## larry81

thenegotiator said:


> IF THEY ANNOUNCE GOOD QUARTER RESULTS there is a very good chance that the stock will rally strongly.


Are you nostradamus ?


----------



## Jungle

What does everyone think going forward? THey are giving the cash back to investors now with a div increase and share buy back. But profit and margins are down YOY.. the stock is cheap, but this could be pricing in a slowing iphone and ipad sales, over the next couple years. I guess is all depends on the next big inovation to drive sales going forward.


----------



## donald

Aapl can't win,this stock is so hated!Did you watch the afterhours on it........They are buying back a **** load of stock and increasing the div(everybody said get off the cash pile and now they are going to and it is still hated,and there numbers weren't that bad)I was viewing stocktwits afterhours and there is a lot of bears!!I hold 20 shares personally and i'm not selling......who knows where this going.Maybe i should dump them a buy netflix EVERYBODY is in love with that one,i don't think aapl is done but it is strange how little the margin of error is(stock reminds me of tiger woods when the world hated him a few yrs ago and thought he was a goner)Who knows what is in the pipeline......It's clear tim cook is hated though,tough to be timmy......I-wallet?Is that next?


----------



## Toronto.gal

donald said:


> 1. it is strange how little the margin of error is (stock reminds me of tiger woods when the world hated him a few yrs ago and thought he was a goner)
> 2. Who knows what is in the pipeline.....


*1.* Not so strange anymore as such a reaction is not limited to any particular stock anymore. Have lost count how many stocks have been unfairly punished. Your comparison to Tiger was amusing. 

*2.* It's funny how some are already comparing AAPL with PALM. Lack of apparent catalysts won't be permanent IMO.

Given their $145B in cash, no dividend increase would have been a big surprise.

What was a surprise, however, was not the share buyback, but the size of it, which is the largest ever @ $60B over 2 years.


----------



## jcgd

I'm thinking of picking up a few shares now. I was hoping for a huge buyback but I didn't think they would actually do it. I'm kind of impressed that they let the share price get slaughtered though; it's much better for them to buy back now rather than with the high price as I would have expected.

I'd like to see them continue with aggressive buybacks as long as the price is depressed and substantially reduce the share count with all the cash they are generating. It would help counter the margin compression as well, while reducing the amount they pay out for dividends. The savings could be used to help fuel dividend growth for the remaining shareholders.

I think I may start dabbling while keeping an eye on the price. The price still seems to be in a downtrend but I think it is finally at levels I am comfortable with. I'm so happy I sold my position at $630, even though I didn't make any money. It looks like I finally made a wise call. First time for everything I suppose.


----------



## kcowan

In fact, according to analyst, Felix Salmon, their effective rate of return, based on current dividend yield and stock buybacks, is 7.5%! So we are now talking about a value play rather than growth. Of course in my world view, AAPL has always been about value. The growth spurt just confused the market.

They will never dominate on market share. But count on them to dominate profit share...


----------



## jcgd

kCowan, you originally bought back in '02 didn't you? 

It was a value play then, and I'm thinking we may see history repeat. Even if they don't continue with the growth we've seen over the last 10 years, we could still see the returns. A new hit product would be the icing on the cake from where Apple is now.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I'm of the opinion that there is still plenty of 'rock star growth' left in AAPL.


----------



## audio

If it gets down to $250 I'll buy some. Mind you I said that about NOK at $2 and I never did.:biggrin:


----------



## Betzy

Here you go, they have started...

UPDATE 2-Apple lays groundwork for first debt sale ever2 hours ago

By Josie Cox

LONDON, April 29 (IFR) - Apple took initial steps Monday for what would be its first debt sale ever, as the US computer giant lays the groundwork for what would be one of the most anticipated bond sales of the year.

The company was to begin investor calls today led by Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, a source familiar with the situation told IFR, and filed SEC paperwork for a debt offering.

The only major tech company without a penny of debt on its books, Apple stunned the markets last week by announcing it could sell debt for the first time to help fund a $100 billion capital return programme for shareholders.

Any bond offer from the makers of the iconic iPhone and iPad would be highly sought after by investors, and it is believed the company could raise funds at a cheaper rate than even Triple A rated Microsoft.

Apple was not immediately available for comment. It was not known if the company would look to issue debt in dollars, sterling, euros or some mix of currencies.

As it unveiled its first quarterly profit decline in more than a decade last week, Apple said it plans to buy back some $60 billion of shares over the next three years.

According to analyst estimates, Apple has $145 billion of cash - but only $45 billion on hand in the US, and thus not enough to fully fund the share buy-back programme.

Research firm CreditSights said this meant that Apple would likely have to issue around $15 billion to $20 billion of debt for the next three years.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE

The change in strategy comes as Apple gives in to investor demands to unlock its vast pile of cash while grappling with uncertainties in the highly fluid tech sector.

While analysts suggest that coming to the debt markets makes sense now - with interest rates near record lows, the cost of issuing debt is cheaper than ever - Apple failed to get the coveted Triple A rating from agencies.

S&P awarded the company an AA+ rating after last week's announcement, while Moody's rated it Aa1.

"Apple's Aa1 rating is not higher due to Moody's view that there are inherent long-run risks for any company with high exposure to shifting consumer preferences," Moody's analyst Gerald Granovsky said last week.

On a conference call with analysts last week, Apple CEO Tim Cook acknowledged that the company's long spectacular growth - which relies heavily on new products - had been tempered.

And the decision to issue debt for the first time is seen by some in the market as a recognition that the realities of the marketplace have changed.

"The fact that Apple will spend US$100bn for shareholders is an admission that their business is maturing," a tech company coverage banker at a large US firm told IFR last week.

"It's a complete capitulation on the growth story in my opinion."

Even so, any debut debt offer from the company - one of the most instantly recognised brands in the world - will surely be snapped up by investors.

Because it has no debt outstanding, many believe Apple could sell bonds at tighter yield spreads than Microsoft, which last Thursday priced a new US$1bn 10-year bond at 70 basis points (bp) over Treasuries.

Bankers estimate that Apple could issue 10-year bonds at around 45bp-50bp over Treasuries.

Given the funding needed and the size of investor demand, many believe Apple would issue debt across multiple maturities and currencies.


jcgd said:


> I'm thinking of picking up a few shares now. I was hoping for a huge buyback but I didn't think they would actually do it. I'm kind of impressed that they let the share price get slaughtered though; it's much better for them to buy back now rather than with the high price as I would have expected.
> 
> I'd like to see them continue with aggressive buybacks as long as the price is depressed and substantially reduce the share count with all the cash they are generating. It would help counter the margin compression as well, while reducing the amount they pay out for dividends. The savings could be used to help fuel dividend growth for the remaining shareholders.
> 
> I think I may start dabbling while keeping an eye on the price. The price still seems to be in a downtrend but I think it is finally at levels I am comfortable with. I'm so happy I sold my position at $630, even though I didn't make any money. It looks like I finally made a wise call. First time for everything I suppose.


----------



## indexxx

Not much posted on here of late- just want to say it's good to see some recovery on this stock.


----------



## andrewf

Yeah, looks like it put in a bottom.


----------



## peterk

Got my ACB down to $420 a few weeks ago. Pretty happy so far.


----------



## cannadian

AAPL is now the largest holding in my port - cost basis of 428.50.


----------



## Hawkdog

FYI.

http://business.financialpost.com/2...e-amazon-google-and-facebook/?__lsa=4224-624c


----------



## Vitalogy80

Hawkdog said:


> FYI.
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/2...e-amazon-google-and-facebook/?__lsa=4224-624c


This article made me laugh...there's a jinx in building something large to house all your employees? I understand people thinking these companies are building massive expenditures when growth is slowing, but does anyone see Apple, Google, Facebook or Amazon dissapearing anytime soon? Yes, growth might not be in the triple digits, but the revenue these companies bring in is ridiculous. 

Apple's spaceship is estimated to cost around $5B, which is a ton of money, but that's probably about 45 days of profit for them, so I hardly think it's going to bankrupt them.


----------



## Hawkdog

No, its not going to bankrupt them. They have tons of cash in the bank. But good things do come to end.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Hawkdog said:


> No, its not going to bankrupt them. They have tons of cash in the bank. But good things do come to end.


Well that's a pretty vague statement...any timeline you have on the doom of Apple? You realize they've sold around 75 Million iPhones in the past 6 months at an average cost of around $620. Even with no growth, that's a heck of a lot of money coming in.


----------



## indexxx

Some news out of India:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/05/30/apple-sales-soar-in-india/?partner=yahootix


----------



## brad

Apple announcing a bunch of big new innovations today, especially iOS7, which is pretty much a complete redesign, plus the new Mac Pro, new OSX. Based on past announcements like this, the stock price will probably go down rather than up, since the more innovative they get the more people are disappointed that they didn't innovate more. ;-)


----------



## peterk

Sold my apple this morning. Might slip back in if it drops into the low 400s again.


----------



## cannadian

Hey guys for anyone interested I've recently made AAPL my largest holding.

Here's my thesis on it:

http://contrarianville.blogspot.ca/


----------



## brad

My feeling is that Apple's stock probably won't ever recover because most investors have unrealistic expectations based on a few past blockbuster innovations, figuring that a company like Apple should be able to keep trotting out revolutionary new products every year. Which of course wouldn't have happened even if Steve Jobs were still alive. So the company itself will continue to be very successful, but that success, and future potential for success, won't be reflected in its share price. It's share of the phone market will decline as well, and my guess is that Apple will gradually settle back to what it was before it invented the iPhone: a highly profitable, innovative niche player.


----------



## humble_pie

cannadian said:


> Hey guys for anyone interested I've recently made AAPL my largest holding.
> 
> Here's my thesis on it:
> 
> http://contrarianville.blogspot.ca/




um, is that a shared drive?

i don't share drives willingly, there are too many problems

couldn't you just post your study on ratty?

thankx


----------



## andrewf

brad said:


> My feeling is that Apple's stock probably won't ever recover because most investors have unrealistic expectations based on a few past blockbuster innovations, figuring that a company like Apple should be able to keep trotting out revolutionary new products every year. Which of course wouldn't have happened even if Steve Jobs were still alive. So the company itself will continue to be very successful, but that success, and future potential for success, won't be reflected in its share price. It's share of the phone market will decline as well, and my guess is that Apple will gradually settle back to what it was before it invented the iPhone: a highly profitable, innovative niche player.


I think you're right about that, brad.


----------



## cannadian

humble_pie said:


> um, is that a shared drive?
> 
> i don't share drives willingly, there are too many problems
> 
> couldn't you just post your study on ratty?
> 
> thankx


Hey I'm not too good with computer lingo but it's just the Microsoft version of Google docs (SkyDrive). I didn't want to post it on ratty just because it's 20 pages and there are a bunch of graphs and I would have to copy/paste paragraph by paragraph to reformat it and upload all the graph images..

What are some of the problems with these? I can't be hacked can I?


----------



## humble_pie

cannadian said:


> ... it's just the Microsoft version of Google docs (SkyDrive). I didn't want to post it on ratty just because it's 20 pages and there are a bunch of graphs



re creating a PDF from the drive document & posting PDF on ratty ... i for one know nothing but there are lots of experts in the forum who might drive by & offer advice/suggestions. In the meantime here are a few sites to browse while seeking inspiration ...

a how-to for starters:
http://www.windows8pdf.com/

or here is a free software:
http://www.pdfforge.org/

you'll see that CNET likes PDF Creator from above pdfforge:
http://download.cnet.com/PDFCreator/3000-2064_4-10558866.html

another software from CNET that seems specific for windows 8:
http://download.cnet.com/PDF-Creator-for-Windows-8/3000-18497_4-75689663.html


----------



## kcowan

brad said:


> It's share of the phone market will decline as well, and my guess is that Apple will gradually settle back to what it was before it invented the iPhone: a highly profitable, innovative niche player.


+1
When we think back to the iPod and iTunes, it was a genuine innovation in an industry that was rejecting the model. The iPod Touch was what made the iPhone possible. But the bandwidth demands required cooperation from the carriers.

Imagining where the next breakthrough will come is tough. Voice actuation? TV?


----------



## praire_guy

"What will they think of next?"

I remember when cd's came out, it was the end all be all. 

It won't be tough to innovate again


----------



## andrewf

The thing is, the cell phone as personal portable computing device is already approaching maturity. Any new gadgets are almost inherently going to be more niche. Even a TV won't appeal to as many consumers as a personal portable computer. I don't even own a TV.


----------



## Hawkdog

andrewf said:


> I don't even own a TV.


You are in the minority, I know people who have 7 TV's and TV's outside for their hot tubs.


----------



## andrewf

They're the minority, too.

My point is that a $2500 'iTV' would have a hard time getting traction compared to a $600 iPhone. A smartphone you have with you all day, but is a 'smart' TV that you use for a few hours a day worth paying a huge premium for? Why not just but a bigger/better screened 'normal' TV?


----------



## cainvest

andrewf said:


> The thing is, the cell phone as personal portable computing device is already approaching maturity. Any new gadgets are almost inherently going to be more niche. Even a TV won't appeal to as many consumers as a personal portable computer. I don't even own a TV.


Probably correct BUT smart phones may get a life extension as tethering/computing devices for peripherals. Stuff like google's glass, larger bend/rollup displays and keyboards, etc ... there may even come a time when some smart phones won't even have displays, made for tethering only. Also, depending on the cost & development resources put into it, augmented reality may be the next big thing. There is some really cool and useful tech on the road ahead, it really is just a matter of getting it out in a cost effective manner.


----------



## andrewf

Convincing a lot of people to pay high prices to support fat margins is the tricky part.


----------



## indexxx

andrewf said:


> Convincing a lot of people to pay high prices to support fat margins is the tricky part.


Yes, but for Apple, it's worked so far.


----------



## donald

Someone mentioned cd's-when they came ''out'' they were the end all to be all(i agree and remember)just for fun i looked at when they came out-1982,not mainstream till around 1990(23 yrs ago)

Like all things ''tech'' one has to think the handheld/smartphone device is going to be soon obsolete(it has to be so)
I-phone came out in 07(6 yrs ago)that is a long time ago already

I own shares,but im thinking hard right now.
I bet in less than 6/7 years i-phones will be relics.
There has to be a 15 yr old genius out there right now(or someone born in the early 00's)that prob right now is designing something in his parents ''garage"That is what appl/goog ect has to be worried about.
Every 10 yrs there is a zuckerburg or steve jobs born.
It's going to be a new genius coming to age soon that is going to blow i-phone/smart phone apart.(i would even argue it would likely happen even if jobs was still alive)m.o

*I remember in early 2000's a friend of mine bought a 50 inch tv(before flat screens)thing weighed 300 lbs-9999.00 is what he paid for it*I remember him justifying it saying it will last him his entire adult life..........by the mid oo's it was in the landfill.


----------



## andrewf

^This is why you shouldn't spend absurd amounts on consumer electronics.


----------



## Hawkdog

Smart TV 



andrewf said:


> They're the minority, too.
> My point was, most people have at least 1 TV,
> 7 TV's is definitely in the minority for sure.
> 
> My point is that a $2500 'iTV' would have a hard time getting traction compared to a $600 iPhone. A smartphone you have with you all day, but is a 'smart' TV that you use for a few hours a day worth paying a huge premium for? Why not just but a bigger/better screened 'normal' TV?


I agree, but the prices will drop just like everything due to competition, Smart TVs will be the norm in the not to distance future.

Also, I think a comparison of a $2500 'ITV" to the $2500 IMAC - would be more appropriate than an Iphone. I could see the ITV replacing the IMAC,
lots of people are watching TV through the internet anyway.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> My point is that a $2500 'iTV' would have a hard time getting traction compared to a $600 iPhone. A smartphone you have with you all day, but is a 'smart' TV that you use for a few hours a day worth paying a huge premium for? Why not just but a bigger/better screened 'normal' TV?


Apple already makes a TV; it costs $109.


----------



## andrewf

Where are their billions from that product? It's a set-top box, not a TV, that isn't really differentiated from similar products.

I'm not denying that Apple can make such a product, and even sell some. I'm questioning why people think an Apple TV will move the needle on the top line or the bottom line with iPhone and iPad seeing increased competition and dwindling market share.


----------



## brad

They've sold 13 million Apple TV boxes so far, but until now Apple has considered TV to be a "hobby" area. Apparently they have a bigger vision:

http://www.theverge.com/2013/5/28/4374480/apple-tv-sales-13-million-to-date

I don't think a new TV is going to be a blockbuster for Apple, just one of their many lines of business and probably still an exploratory area for a while.


----------



## andrewf

The gross profit on the hardware is pretty low. One would assume that they are hoping to lock people into iTunes for content delivery. I can't see them making enough to move the needle. Maybe I don't see it. All I know is that Apple has been teasing a TV product for years and nothing meaningful has come along yet.


----------



## kcowan

I suspect that Apple wants to own the subscription TV market by making series and movies available on ITunes. The STB is just a holding device. It will depend on what arrangements it can make with the content providers.


----------



## brad

kcowan said:


> I suspect that Apple wants to own the subscription TV market by making series and movies available on ITunes.


They already do that, though. iTunes Canada has TV series from about 30 networks; the number in the States is probably higher. And they have a few thousand movies available to buy or rent (rentals are around $5 for recent films; older ones can be rented for $1).


----------



## kcowan

Apple death knell counter

Apple has been declared dead 62 times since 1995. This site keeps track of them all. It is kind of amusing.

I wonder if we should start one for Blackberry? :lol:


----------



## andrewf

I don't think you can say Apple is dead/doomed. I think their brief reign as the world's most valuable company may be over for good.


----------



## kcowan

Samsung act like a petulant child in paying up to Apple for their patent infringement

I wonder how much extra it cost them to assemble this payment? :rolleyes2:


----------



## none

kcowan said:


> Samsung act like a petulant child in paying up to Apple for their patent infringement
> 
> I wonder how much extra it cost them to assemble this payment? :rolleyes2:


True enough but apple is a total patent douche.

patent rounded edges - give me a break.


----------



## andrewf

Samsung stoops to Apple's level.


----------



## Echo

andrewf said:


> Samsung stoops to Apple's level.


You know that story is a hoax, right? - http://www.snopes.com/politics/satire/samsung.asp


----------



## none

Not sure how reliable this link is but they would need 20 Billion nickels to do this.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_nickels_in_circulation

or 10 000 metric tons of nickels. Funny stuff.


----------



## indexxx

Just an aside about iPhones- yesterday my stuff was stolen from a public swimming pool, including my iPhone 5. I tracked it through the Find My iPhone service, which gave me the exact address and a satellite photo of the house the phone was at; I called the police, who are familiar with Find My iPhone, gave them the info, and they were on the scene within 15 minutes as I had an active signal tracking my phone and therefor a hot lead. Unfortunately this is legally not enough for them to enter a residence, so I then sent a text to my phone from my wife's, telling the thief to look outside on the street to see the cops and that they had ten minutes to 'do the right thing'. They apparently saw the police, freaked out, snuck out a back door and dropped my iPhone into the nearest Canada Post box- I could see the location changing live while I had the cops on my wife's phone. We missed catching the thief, (busy East Van main drag) but I went to the location while my wife was online at home, triggering the homing signal on the Find My iPhone app, and I walked around the area until I heard it beeping, inside the mailbox. Canada Post got it out this morning and the cops are on their way with it at this moment. Suffice it to say I love Apple products.


----------



## none

Also consider adding prey to your phone. You can get nice photos next time of the thief!


----------



## kcowan

Echo said:


> You know that story is a hoax, right? - http://www.snopes.com/politics/satire/samsung.asp


I do now!


----------



## mike06

Earnings tuesday, any predictions? I fully expect this to continue to trade in this ~400-450 range unless they either miss expectations badly or release a new product (which will hopefully be soon). I dont think that an upside beat will do anything substantial for the stock without at least hinting at a new product on the way.


----------



## bmoney

I would be cautious going into earnings for the upcoming quarter given recent results from their peers. Smartphones sales for Samsung, HTC and Nokia were fairly soft and I believe all 3 competitors had relatively newer smartphones for sale during the period compared to apple. Seems these companies put the blame on a saturated smartphone market, coupled with cutbacks by the carriers for subsidizes and longer turnover. Also, the Haswell refresh was fairly disappointing so I wouldn't expect much contribution to revs from PCs. Personally, I held off months to pickup a Haswell rmbp, and ended up purchasing a refurb ivy bridge for $500 from the apple store - lots of people did.

I sold my Apple holdings on a disappointing WWDC. Apple still has a few tricks up its sleeve such as larger iphone, cheaper iphone, retina ipad mini, slimmer ipad, iwatch? and possibly a move into IPTV. These are all great catalysts but many of them are a few quarters out from now, and I won't expect much of a great quarter even with lowered expectations going in. A drop could however setup a decent buying opportunity going forward.


----------



## andrewf

Anyone else think that Chromecast is pretty devastating to Apple's ability to sell a high margin smart TV? Apple could offer a competing product, but I can't see them being able to charge any more than they do for Apple TV. Big screen TVs are a saturated, low margin, highly competitive business. I can't see Apple being able to disrupt the display side. The interface was where they could differentiate, and Chromecast seems like it may have cracked it. Existing devices like phones, tablets or laptops act as the 'remote'...


----------



## gibor365

Nice jump in shares of AAPL ahead of new product release.
_Ahead of new product introductions slated for September 10, Carl Icahn is said to have accumulated over $1B in Apple Inc. (AAPL) and has been acquiring shares over the last 4 weeks. It is now a top five position, and Icahn believes the price will go north of $600, according to Bloomberg. 

Icahn says, "I think the company is extremely undervalued. I had a good talk with Tim [Cook]. I told him I think a large buy back should be done now. They have so much cash and they could borrow money. By definition, it is a no brainer since they borrow cheaply. Even if the earnings and multiple stay the same, the stock value is greatly enhanced by the buyback."
_


----------



## SkyFall

:chuncky:


----------



## james4beach

Fantastic! I hope AAPL rallies like crazy from here. It's finally above its 200 day moving average, and if there's a few more high volume up days this could really taken off.

I'm watching AAPL long term to take a short position on it, but I need to see a few things happen first: a big rally, then a failure to surpass its old all time high. I've been patiently watching this for years, trying to see a good spot to short it, and am still waiting. If it rallies hard from here it may finally set me up for a short entry.


----------



## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> I've been patiently watching this [AAPL] for years, trying to see a good spot to short it, and am still waiting


this post is its own best caricature. If u didn't pick up on AAPL plunging from 700 to 400 over the past 11 months, you're never going to recognize a short opportunity now.


----------



## rknigh2

I was lucky enough to get into some options before earnings and parlayed into higher OTM options. Now that we are breaking into $500 (my original target), where does everyone see the major resistance? I'm looking at the 515-540 handle and there was a lot of previous action there. Thoughts?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Not much patience nor eagle eye was required to see the stock's stellar rise and subsequent dramatic drop, as all happened relatively quickly: $200+/$705+ in just 18 months; $705+/$385+ in just 9 months.

Also, the dramatic drop allowed me to gift shares to my son, and in the process, reducing capital gains from $500+ per sh [had I sold last Sept.] to $200. 

I did wait patiently for the stock to drop to $350 to buy more, but it never got there, however, I did not wait for the stock to rise above $400 to buy more. 

Investor discipline/patience/research are all very good things, but to do nothing with all = $0 profit; patience to short = very dangerous.


----------



## james4beach

humble_pie said:


> this post is its own best caricature. If u didn't pick up on AAPL plunging from 700 to 400 over the past 11 months, you're never going to recognize a short opportunity now.


Everyone has their own trading technique. When it comes to short selling stocks, one of the techniques that has worked the best for me is to wait for a certain pattern... I am waiting for that pattern on Apple. True, I didn't benefit from that -42% plunge over the last year. I've had no position in AAPL, still don't.

But that's because I didn't see the kind of set up that I'm familiar with. Historically speaking the way AAPL fell was very unusual. It went straight down for a long time, with not a single rally back. That is atypical and I wasn't comfortable with it, so didn't open a position. I also don't short stocks in a strong market and the US market has been very strong.

What it's doing now, with a strong rally back after the big decline, is much more typical. This is now starting to play out like the pattern that I'm comfortable shorting. If Apple rallies for a while but investors fail to take it to new all time highs, then it will be in a situation with lots of bearish potential and that's when I will want to short it. Anything like that is months away.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The quick plunge below $400 was no more unusual than it's surge to $700+.


----------



## MrMatt

AAPL and much of the cool companies, particular tech ones are crazy volitile, quite often they're selling future awesomeness.

As the growth projections change drastically, so does the price.


----------



## Vitalogy80

Toronto.gal said:


> The quick plunge below $400 was no more unusual than it's surge to $700+.


Are you saying the rise to $700 was unjustified? It was growing EPS at a near 100% clip for multiple years in a row, yet still had only a PE at it's height (the past few years) of around 18. People claimed AAPL went way too high, too fast, but it wasn't flying due to speculation or following the trend, it flew to $700 because it grew earnings at a ridiculous pace for a number of years in a row.


----------



## andrewf

The real story with AAPL is about having such a low PE. It's very unusual for rapidly growing tech companies to trade at such a low multiple. It indicates market skepticism about future income.


----------



## james4beach

Tech fads come and go. Apple's rise in recent years was mostly pop fashion IMO... those TV commercials with the hip dancing silhouettes. Sure they have good products but there's no denying that Apple's rise was on fashion hype.


----------



## sylyconvalley

james4beach said:


> Tech fads come and go. Apple's rise in recent years was mostly pop fashion IMO... those TV commercials with the hip dancing silhouettes. Sure they have good products but there's no denying that Apple's rise was on fashion hype.


i think that u are overlooking at this stock in a fashion that eluded me also.
we had a double bottom at 390 bux which held really really well.
.
I am not bulish at these levels.
nevertheless if we retrace and hold at that level on vol I am a buyer.
i missed this trade .
pitty.


----------



## fatcat

james4beach said:


> Tech fads come and go. Apple's rise in recent years was mostly pop fashion IMO... those TV commercials with the hip dancing silhouettes. Sure they have good products but there's no denying that Apple's rise was on fashion hype.


you realize james that it is my responsibility to disagree with you about everything ... ? 

putting aside all their incredibly slick marketing and innovative packaging

they have done more than any other company to make technology accessible and actually useful

and have virtually invented 3 categories of products that now dominate personal technology, namely the digital media player (ipod), smartphone (iphone) and tablet (ipad)

hype ? ... oh come on james ...


----------



## andrewf

They didn't really invent any of those products. They baked a better chocolate cake, and marketed it really well.


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> They didn't really invent any of those products. They baked a better chocolate cake, and marketed it really well.


almost all mature successful technology products have more than one experimental or small scale predecessors ... 

"baking a better cake" doesn't really fairly describe the ipod which changed the way music was consumed by implementing not only the product but the method of delivering it in a slick and very easy to use package (itunes) that still has no real equal ... 

the iphone virtually defined the smartphone and the ipad, which was preceded by the newton and many other "slates" and tablets (all of which failed), was an instant success that still hasn't been caught by the competition ...

apple is far more than mere marketing though their marketing and packaging and web design is second to none ...

their retail delivery system of stores and online order fulfillment is a prototype widely copied with limited success so far by others

they have integrated their product, their supply chain and retail delivery system that is unmatched by any other company ... microsoft isn't even close and google is still way, way behind

whether this will all continue and whether others will pass them by remains to be seen as does the trajectory of their stock but i disagree with the notion that they merely do stuff better than others, they are well beyond merely doing stuff better i think


----------



## cainvest

I'd have to agree with the others, fashion/trendy and better cake icing but not really inventors IMO. Still they have a talent for pushing that stuff out there.


----------



## indexxx

fatcat said:


> almost all mature successful technology products have more than one experimental or small scale predecessors ...
> 
> "baking a better cake" doesn't really fairly describe the ipod which changed the way music was consumed by implementing not only the product but the method of delivering it in a slick and very easy to use package (itunes) that still has no real equal ...
> 
> the iphone virtually defined the smartphone and the ipad, which was preceded by the newton and many other "slates" and tablets (all of which failed), was an instant success that still hasn't been caught by the competition ...
> 
> apple is far more than mere marketing though their marketing and packaging and web design is second to none ...
> 
> their retail delivery system of stores and online order fulfillment is a prototype widely copied with limited success so far by others
> 
> they have integrated their product, their supply chain and retail delivery system that is unmatched by any other company ... microsoft isn't even close and google is still way, way behind
> 
> whether this will all continue and whether others will pass them by remains to be seen as does the trajectory of their stock but i disagree with the notion that they merely do stuff better than others, they are well beyond merely doing stuff better i think


+1 to this


----------



## MrMatt

@fatcat,

iTunes has no equal? It doesn't really do anything special.

The iPhone hasn't be caught by the competition? The best of the competition is in many ways better than the iPhone, at a better price.

Their supply chain isn't all that integrated, they make a bunch of phones and ship them to stores, not really any different than a TV, book, or box of lego, or a case of mangos. Integrated well managed supply chain, that would be someone like the automakers who can build you a car with your exact options in a few weeks.

Plus throw in their attitude towards bugs or UI mistakes
When you find one the response of Apple tech support is "you're doing it wrong", they almost NEVER admit to a mistake.
Screw up the antenae design, "you're holding it wrong". What a joke.


The thing is Apple makes pretty good product, they're generally well designed, and high quality. Their customers are loyal and emotional about it. They have good lock in, once you "Go Apple" it's hard to switch. But they're also expensive, and inflexible. 
The competition, as a whole has a range of products that are also well designed and high quality, they come in a range of prices, performance and features.

Apples strength and weaknesses are their committment to doing things the "Apple way" which is in their mind the "Right way". That rigid focus is why their market share is falling, I think last quarter they were down to 15%, and they're selling less than half as many phones as Samsung.
Samsung BTW is doing it differently, they're trying a lot of different things, they're offering choice and flexibility, you can get a bigger or smaller, faster or slower device, and people are buying.


----------



## andrewf

There's nothing wrong with being a good systems integrator. Apple has done this very well, both in their products as well as in their operations. The fact that they didn't 'invent' their products does not take away from the fact that they did it better than anyone previously had and really resonated with consumers. I think their supply chain is pretty impressive, but I'm not sure it is necessarily the 'best'. Supply chains can look very different depending on what performance characteristics you're optimizing (speed to market, cost, reliability, diversity, flexibility, etc.). 

In some ways, Tesla is a lot like Apple. Tesla didn't invent electric cars, or lithium ion batteries. They took many components and techniques that already existed and integrated them very effectively to make a product that is radically better than what others before have produced. While legacy carmakers are making ugly spaceship electric cars, Tesla made a no-compromise performance luxury sedan that's a good car period, not good for an electric car.


----------



## kcowan

As a PC user and an AAPL stockholder, I believe the Apple brand has meant easy to use for the user but at a price premium. iTunes made music available easily (over concerns from the music publishing industry). iPhone made data accessible at reasonable rates from the mobile industry, paving the way for other smartphones. (I believe these carrier deals were actually the death knell for Blackberry.)

The iPad made computers accessible to many new users for the two essential services: email and web browsing. I think it was the app store that has set it apart from its competitors initially. But I really can't explain its continuing success.


----------



## peterk

Apple is the jock who works really hard at one thing, football (user experience), to get all the girls (money).

Meanwhile, all the nerds piss and moan about how much better/smarter/creative/thoughful they are but go home empty handed.

Will the jock get his comeuppance and the nerd take home the girl in the end? Maybe... but I've only ever seen that happen in the movies...


----------



## andrewf

I dunno, Samsung is doing well, and Android as a whole is decimating Apple's marketshare--is sub 10% marketshare in smartphones that far away? Not sure I agree with the analogy.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Vitalogy80 said:


> Are you saying the rise to $700 was unjustified? It was growing EPS at a near 100% clip for multiple years in a row, yet still had only a PE at it's height (the past few years) of around 18. People claimed AAPL went way too high, too fast, but it wasn't flying due to speculation or following the trend, it flew to $700 because it grew earnings at a ridiculous pace for a number of years in a row.


You came back after a long break, just to discuss AAPL with me again? :biggrin:

My comments had been in response to what J4B had said: *"the way AAPL fell was very unusual. It went straight down for a long time."*

Did it also not go straight up for a long time? 

Wasn't talking about the value of the company at all, just that the decline and rise were both swift, that's what I meant.


----------



## Toronto.gal

fatcat said:


> you realize james that it is my responsibility to disagree with you about everything ... ?


I realize that you're very patient, and so is J4B.


----------



## james4beach

All I was saying is that I haven't seen many stocks that fall straight down like that without so much as a little rally back above their 50 day moving averages. That's why I thought its behaviour was unusual. No big deal, but it kept me from trading it because I wasn't comfortable with the way it was acting.

I hope it rallies hard now. Looking good so far but today is options expiration and that can add weirdness to stocks... we'll see next week.


----------



## james4beach

By the way I will agree the products are good and the packaging solid. But when I've been in a group of 20 yo girls who all pull out their pretty iPhones and talk about sexy and white they are, I know there's a "fashion" element to them... and fashions come & go


----------



## fatcat

just to be clear, i started using apple about 26 years ago but have long since abandoned the fanboy indignation at any suggestion that they aren't "insanely great"

no doubt their decline will someday arrive but i am clear eyed about what they have and haven't done

mr. matt, itunes is the prototype for media delivery copied by everyone from amazon to google to microsoft, all of whom are trying to build devices that integrate with an online storefront that delivers an array of media ... not special ? .... itunes invented this category 

and let's be clear, amazon and google and others are catching up and will perhaps overtake apple with a better product and delivery system ... but the model was implemented first and so far the best in terms of simplicity and ease of use by apple

andrew, i agree, samsung and many others have caught up with apple in terms of smartphones both in design and quality ... since i am retired and don't use a phone much and don't want to shell out for an iphone, i am very happy with my nokia windows phone 520 which is an exceptional little phone for the money ... apple is falling behind in the affordable smartphone arena and let's see what they bring out out in september to remedy this

the truth is that the iphone is losing it's sexiness and increasingly, is just another phone

this technology is more and more like toasters, just machines that do stuff for us ... and as with all technology, which we inevitably take for-granted, we forget how revolutionary it was in the beginning


----------



## andrewf

Lately iPhones have been looking small and boxy to me. Maybe the next gen iPhone will come with a larger display, but currently iPhone is seriously lagging in this regard (I know, I know, all those other phones are too big and don't fit in pockets and all that--at least until iPhone becomes the same size).


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Lately iPhones have been looking small and boxy to me. Maybe the next gen iPhone will come with a larger display, but currently iPhone is seriously lagging in this regard (I know, I know, all those other phones are too big and don't fit in pockets and all that--at least until iPhone becomes the same size).


apple's strength is now becoming a weakness ... they work relentlessly for simplicity and ease of use at the expense of choice ... but now that people _understand_ the smartphone, they want more choice .. it's just another tool


----------



## PatInTheHat

I'd be looking to sell this in the $500+ range. I have no faith in the long term prospects of apple.


----------



## TheMoneyGuide

Hi everyone

I'm not saying this to brag and to be very honest when I purchased AAPL at $405 (actually purchased LEAPs) I was expecting to either sell for a quick loss or hold to $430. But as it bounced around $430 I decided to hold it and after getting back from vacation it was up to $500. Just got lucky really, never expected it to go back to $500.

What does everyone think about a push to $600. I'll pretty sure I'll be selling out at this level, but it would be good to hear from the group.

John


----------



## sylyconvalley

the 3 year chart shows a gap between 569ish and 572ish.
are u patient enough after this nice 100 bux rally?
what are options further out telling ya?
i missed this train because i low balled it.
pitty


----------



## TheMoneyGuide

To be honest I'm definitely not that patient and I think I'll pair out of most of the position this week. I really only have a few contracts anyways.

Bought when volatility dropped a little a month back and now it's high again.

Back to selling credit spreads.

Thanks


----------



## sylyconvalley

^ not a bad idea if u bought at 390 right?
I would not milk it all the way and buy some outright longdated puts .
that is me though.
what the heck.


----------



## sylyconvalley

for the "gap " hunters.
i do see a gap down below...
there are about 4 gaps above and one of them is all the way up.
the one i am talking about is below at around 427ish and 435ish.
will wait till it fills and then....... this time i will not miss:hopelessness:


----------



## indexxx

Rumour mill...

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/apple-iphone-5s-event-rumors-photos-leaks-174818593.html

Interested to see how close this is to reality. I hadn't considered this reasoning for a cheaper iPhone.


----------



## brad

indexxx said:


> Rumour mill...
> 
> http://ca.news.yahoo.com/apple-iphone-5s-event-rumors-photos-leaks-174818593.html


But based on recent market reactions to anything announced by Apple, no matter how positive, today's even is likely to drive down Apple's price. Investors seem to fail to grasp that we're in a period of incremental improvements in smartphone design; the rapid evolution and innovation happened in 2007-2009. There will eventually be another period of rapid innovation and more radical evolution, but this isn't it, and investors who don't understand these things will continue to pull out of Apple because they think the company is no longer capable of innovating. A company that innovates simply for the sake of innovation is doomed; it's foolish to change for change's sake. But most investors don't seem to grasp this simple fact.


----------



## andrewf

Apple is finally responding to what the market has been saying that it wants for 18 months. Rumour is they are working on a 5 inch phone for next year... maybe 2 years late?

I think shareholders have to interpret this as a positive. They are at least doing something to stem the loss of marketshare, and trying to do it without hurting margins too much. Profit per unit will still fall.


----------



## Toronto.gal

andrewf said:


> I think shareholders have to interpret this as a positive. They are at least *doing something to stem the loss of marketshare*.......


^Yes.


----------



## andrewf

So, the 5C is only $100 less than the 5S. This is supposed to be the phone that cracks open whole new markets?

/underwhelmed


----------



## Synergy

andrewf said:


> So, the 5C is only $100 less than the 5S. This is supposed to be the phone that cracks open whole new markets?
> 
> /underwhelmed


I'm not sure if the price point will be low enough to compete in the emerging markets. I'm no expert on the topic but I think Samsung offers some pretty competitive pricing. It will be interesting to see how Apple evolves over the next 3-5 yrs...


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> So, the 5C is only $100 less than the 5S. This is supposed to be the phone that cracks open whole new markets?
> 
> /underwhelmed


+1 from me 

i watched the liveblog since i have been waiting for retina ipad mini (which did not show up, i will be buying a google nexus tablet)

and for the life of me i was trying to figure out the market that can afford a $99 color C but won't spend an extra $100 for the hot-damn fast fingerprint thingy ??
why not just walk around with a color sign saying "i'm too poor to buy the _good_ phone"

hey, i carry a cheapo windows phone so i'm like the anti-hipster but i know that people want to be seen with cool phones

is this for the chinese market where the extra $100 means a lot of cash out of the pocket perhaps ?

i thought it was one of the most underwhelming apple presents ever and i have seen a fair number


----------



## Synergy

To be fair I don't think the price point in the chinese market is known yet. However, I'm still somewhat surprised to see Apple - a "premium" brand in my mind to be trying to compete on price. Seems like BB recently tried this with their new phones.


----------



## Synergy

perhaps some of the pricing is now known...?

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57602328-37/apples-iphone-5c-misses-the-low-cost-mark/


----------



## indexxx

I missed this bit about Apple radio:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/168...-hibernation?source=email_rt_article_readmore


----------



## indexxx

Synergy said:


> To be fair I don't think the price point in the chinese market is known yet. However, I'm still somewhat surprised to see Apple - a "premium" brand in my mind to be trying to compete on price. Seems like BB recently tried this with their new phones.


It's not, in some ways, 'competition on price' with the 5C just to sell a phone, IMHO. It's a question of having a device that is more accessible to cheaper markets, to get them into the Apple ecosystem. I mean, obviously business is competition, but what I mean is this strategy will allow greater numbers of average consumers here and in developing markets to have a piece of AAPL pie- which of course will eventually translate into iTunes revenue, etc. I also read something today about Apple getting approval for China's carrier networks
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1679722-huge-week-ahead-for-apple
. And there is now iTunes radio coming on next week- massive exposure.


----------



## brad

indexxx said:


> It's not, in some ways, 'competition on price' with the 5C just to sell a phone, IMHO. It's a question of having a device that is more accessible to cheaper markets, to get them into the Apple ecosystem.


I can't remember where I read it (probably the New York Times), but apparently that is precisely their strategy -- they're appealing to an upscale demographic in China and other emerging markets, and the price point was carefully determined based on a lot of research -- any higher and it would be out of reach, but it's just low enough to rope them in. 

I actually thought yesterday's innovations were pretty impressive, especially the camera improvements that showed priority being placed on both image quality (keeping the pixel count low was the right move in this regard) and the actual needs of most iPhone users, rather than trying to compete on specifications. What counts for most people in a phone camera is the quality of images and ease of use.


----------



## SkyFall

Pre market AAPl is down to 476


----------



## Xoron

I'm not a huge fan of Apple at these levels. Most of their revenue comes from iPhone sales. And not much else. A lot of eggs in one basket. 

Check out Apple's iphone sales chart:
http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/iphone-sales.jpg?w=1020&h=680

And check out the same chart with the overlay of their (declining) quarterly iphone sales:
http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/lb_7986_adjusted_bw.png?w=1020&h=620


Both are from this article:
http://qz.com/122921/the-chart-tim-cook-doesnt-want-you-to-see/


----------



## brad

Yes, I really doubt Apple will ever return to anything like its previous high levels, which were built on unrealistic and naive expectations of the company and its business approach. Apple has always been a niche player, have never been about dominating markets, and I think in general they are more interested in retaining customers through gradual improvements in their line than in focusing on competing for market share with other players. I don't buy individual stocks so the investment angle has never been anything more than an academic interest to me, but if I did buy individual stocks I think the only reason to buy Apple would be to get some shares and hold on to them for 10 years or so until they come up with something big again that causes another bubble, or if they decide to go private.


----------



## andrewf

The thing is though, based on P/E, Apple is _cheap_. Unless you think earnings are going to decline significantly from here, it's not unreasonable to own it at these levels. This is why I've been saying for years that the market must be very pessimistic about Apple in the medium term.


----------



## andrewf

I think the 5C might be a flop in terms of making a high end phone still accessible to the high end in the Chinese market. A plastic green iPhone, in terms of status symbols, says "Hey, I'm rich enough to afford and iPhone and too poor to get the _real_ one." As an attempt at segmentation, that seems questionable. It has more or less the same specs as the 5S, but advertises the fact that the owner was too cheap to splash out the extra $100 for the 5S. I mean at that rate, these buyers should go for the 4S, which is less obviously inferior, right? The market for the 5C seems very narrow.


----------



## Sampson

andrewf said:


> in terms of status symbols, says "Hey, I'm rich enough to afford and iPhone and too poor to get the _real_ one."


I disagree with this. Look at the woman's handbag market, or any other luxury goods market. Plenty of people are satisfied with a Coach handbag. That brand certainly screams look at me, I'm not LV or Hermes but it is very accessible so people all over the World yearn for them.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> A plastic green iPhone, in terms of status symbols, says "Hey, I'm rich enough to afford and iPhone and too poor to get the _real_ one."


What if they don't sell the _real_ one in China, but only the 5C? Then there's no choice to make. I think in the US, Canada, and Europe, the 5C might appeal more to teenagers due to the colours, and parents of those teenagers who buy the phones for them would be attracted by the lower price.


----------



## andrewf

brad said:


> What if they don't sell the _real_ one in China, but only the 5C? Then there's no choice to make. I think in the US, Canada, and Europe, the 5C might appeal more to teenagers due to the colours, and parents of those teenagers who buy the phones for them would be attracted by the lower price.


They are selling the 5S in China. If they didn't, it would probably be a PR disaster, and people would import them.


----------



## andrewf

Sampson said:


> I disagree with this. Look at the woman's handbag market, or any other luxury goods market. Plenty of people are satisfied with a Coach handbag. That brand certainly screams look at me, I'm not LV or Hermes but it is very accessible so people all over the World yearn for them.


But is the difference between coach and LV/Hermes 16% more? I think people would look stupid with a coach bag in that case.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> They are selling the 5S in China. If they didn't, it would probably be a PR disaster, and people would import them.


Ah yes, I see that in today's news. The NYT is saying that Apple appears to be deliberately pricing it high in China to test the market, with the plan of dropping prices later. Phones aren't subsidized by carriers there so the upfront cost is really high -- just like buying an unlocked iPhone here in Canada. The unlocked 5S in Canada starts at $719; the 5C starts at $600.


----------



## none

Interesting - lies with plots:

http://qz.com/122921/the-chart-tim-cook-doesnt-want-you-to-see/


----------



## kcowan

I heard someone comment that the carrier subsidy is $400 so the 2 phones are priced at $499 and $599 w/o subsidy and $99 and $199 with subsidy.

I also heard that the 5S in gold was for the Chinese market.


----------



## Sampson

andrewf said:


> But is the difference between coach and LV/Hermes 16% more?


I think it is much greater, but I am no handbag expert. My point is only that this type of product stratification among tech products is omnipresent and people DO buy slightly lesser products at slightly lower costs. TVs and cameras are a perfect exact. Heck, Android handsets are another perfect example.

It would be interesting to see Samsung's S-series sales, and the breakdown in the flagship model vs. lower models.


----------



## indexxx

andrewf said:


> I think the 5C might be a flop in terms of making a high end phone still accessible to the high end in the Chinese market. A plastic green iPhone, in terms of status symbols, says "Hey, I'm rich enough to afford and iPhone and too poor to get the _real_ one." As an attempt at segmentation, that seems questionable. It has more or less the same specs as the 5S, but advertises the fact that the owner was too cheap to splash out the extra $100 for the 5S. I mean at that rate, these buyers should go for the 4S, which is less obviously inferior, right? The market for the 5C seems very narrow.


But don't most people add a protective case anyway? I think it's about having the actual item, not how it looks.


----------



## andrewf

I read a very good point:

Apple has changed nothing by introducing the 5C. 

With previous new releases, they usually retained the older model at a lower price point. When the 4S was released, the 4 was dropped in price. When the 5 was released, the 4S was dropped in price. Now, with the release of the 5S, the 5 was dropped in price *and had a downgrade in build quality* and called the 5C. 

This is really just a masterstroke of marketing, which is one of Apple's strong suits. They spun a downgrade in build quality as a new flanker device to chase EM. It's just a cost-saving measure.


----------



## indexxx

yes, and didn't I also read that Cook was discontinuing the current iPhone 5?


----------



## andrewf

Yes. So the iPhone 5 is becoming the iPhone 5C, with a downgrade in materials.


----------



## kcowan

What is up with iOS 7?

We upgraded at the weekend. Photos are substantially improved as well. It will take square shots. You can enhance the photos on the phone including red eye elimination as well as cropping. This is for the iPad.

For the iPhone only, Pan shots are great. And it will work vertically for skyscraper/waterfall shots. Definitely worth the upgrade!


----------



## brad

Yes, iOS 7 is fantastic, I haven't had any problems with it, and it's a vast improvement on many levels. The designers' goals were to effectively make the operating system get out of the way and sink into the background, which it does in a lot of subtle (and some not so subtle) ways. I wonder if this will backfire a bit for Apple because it makes your device feel brand new even if it's several years old. I'm using an iPad2, the oldest iPad that's still capable of using iOS7, and with these improvements in functionality and usabiity I probably won't feel any need to upgrade for a few more years. 

Apple had its best-ever first weekend of sales for new iPhones, doubling its previous record, although that's probably due to the fact that the new iPhones were made available in a lot more countries than during previous launches.


----------



## andrewf

I heard many complaints about the new look and feel. My guess is it's just status quo bias. People will come around.

Hopefully Apple finishes catching up with Android in a upcoming release. Seems like mobile OSes are starting to stabilize without many major changes in functionality. Google is releasing Android 4.4 in about a month.


----------



## The_Mechanic

*Buying apple before phone releases?*

Has anybody ever trifled with the idea of buying large amounts of apple stocks just before opening week-ends on new devices to get the short term gains and then just sell everything before the hype wears off? It seems every time a new iphone or apple product is released, the stock rises a good amount, and then sort of just tapers and comes back down. Apple being a company that needs to pump out new products to keep stocks climbing, would this be any sort of a good strategy for partial portfolio gains? 

Just wondering...


----------



## brad

Actually doesn't Apple's price tend to fall with each new iPhone announcement? That seems to have been the pattern with the last few releases --- investors were disappointed that the new phones weren't innovative enough or didn't compete well enough on specs. Customers don't seem to have those same concerns, though -- the pattern seems to be that Apple's price falls whenever a new iPhone is announced, then customers buy the new phones in record numbers and Apple's price rises a bit again after it becomes clear that the new phones are a hit.


----------



## marina628

I am $6.00 from being even on AAPL lol


----------



## andrewf

I think the bigger disappointment this time around is that the 5C is nothing new. It's just following Apple's usual strategy of marking down the last gen model by $100, which the 'innovation' of putting it in a lower cost case to boost margins a bit. I don't think it will be the Jesus phone to deliver China to Apple, which was what some people were imagining.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> I think the bigger disappointment this time around is that the 5C is nothing new. It's just following Apple's usual strategy of marking down the last gen model by $100, which the 'innovation' of putting it in a lower cost case to boost margins a bit. I don't think it will be the Jesus phone to deliver China to Apple, which was what some people were imagining.


Yes -- and the 5C's performance is actually a little worse than the 5 (although the 5s blows everything, including the Samsung Galaxy S4 and HTC One, out of the water): 

http://www.macworld.com/article/2049270/benchmarks-iphone-5s-lives-up-to-the-hype.html

Apple announced that it had sold 9 million of the new models in the first three days, but it didn't say how many of those sales were in China. Probably not many.


----------



## Toronto.gal

So what's new for X-mas?

Anyone knows when the iPhone 6 is coming out?


----------



## brad

Toronto.gal said:


> So what's new for X-mas?
> 
> Anyone knows when the iPhone 6 is coming out?


I think this is it for iPhones this year. There will be a new iPad. New iMacs were announced today (same design, new faster innards).


----------



## andrewf

Benchmarking is a bit tricky. I will post this as a counterpoint (from an Android partisan rather than a Mac one). S4 and HTC One are both half a cycle old. The phones released this summer and fall, like the Note 3, Xperia Z1 and LG G2 (which will be the base for the new Nexus phone which should be announced in a few weeks) perform pretty well in relation. Hat tip to Apple for getting more out of the hardware through some software optimization. Which benchmarks you use can help you tell the tale you want, though.

http://thedroidguy.com/2013/09/ipho...sony-xperia-z1-benchmark-comparison-take-one/


----------



## Toronto.gal

brad said:


> I think this is it for iPhones this year. There will be a new iPad. New iMacs were announced today (same design, new faster innards).


Yes, an updated tablet later this year; had not read about the iMacs, and maybe a surprise of some sort.

Q4 numbers next month, should hopefully be a lil more 'inspiring' than Q3. 

These were the 'uninspiring' numbers from Q3: 31.2 million iPhones/14.6 million iPads/3.8 million macs.


----------



## andrewf

I think it's been confirmed that Apple is making a smart watch, no? I'm still skeptical about a watch as a form factor for wearable computing. Something like Glass makes more sense, but has to overcome the social weirdness.


----------



## HaroldCrump

andrewf said:


> I think it's been confirmed that Apple is making a smart watch, no?


I think it was Samsung that announced the Android-based "smart" watch.


----------



## andrewf

Samsung has already released one, called 'galaxy gear'. It is available for purchase tomorrow, I think.


----------



## brad

I'm pretty skeptical that Apple would come out with a watch, unless they do it as a "hobby" like they did with the first Apple TV, sort of testing the waters. It doesn't seem like the kind of product Apple would be interested in doing. If I had to guess at any "surprises" coming this year, I'd say they would probably have more to do with television services and/or products rather than a watch, but we'll see...


----------



## kcowan

I think iOS7 sets AAPL apart from the Samsung "old" look and feel copying. If Samsung repeats their copying, there will be trouble in court! I see this as an acceleration of Apple away from the crowd.

Until now, I saw no reason to upgrade my Samsung Galaxy smartphone. Now I do...

(and I hear that they cannot supply enough gold 5S in China.)


----------



## andrewf

Isn't iOS 7 just a catch-up with stock Android? What about iOS 7 makes you think it is superior to Android?


----------



## kcowan

Don't look to me for expertise. I am comparing my 2yo Android to DWs current iPhone with iOS7. I like the auto sync aspects of iOS. But I will probably wait until the spring. To some degree, just having one technology might make our lives easier. I underestimated the maintenance aspects of smartphones when I bought mine.


----------



## indexxx

Noticing that some local retailers here in Vancouver are posting notices that hey are out of stock on the new iPhone models. It got me thinking as to whether this might actually be a tactic on Apple's behalf- to make something seem more desirable and exclusive, limit the supply. Everyone who wants one will eventually get it. but in the meantime it heightens the value perception of the product.


----------



## Sampson

indexxx said:


> Noticing that some local retailers here in Vancouver are posting notices that hey are out of stock on the new iPhone models. It got me thinking as to whether this might actually be a tactic on Apple's behalf- to make something seem more desirable and exclusive, limit the supply. Everyone who wants one will eventually get it. but in the meantime it heightens the value perception of the product.


But they are selling MORE period. If they produced fewer phones than in previous launches just to sell them out, I would agree with your thesis.


----------



## indexxx

Sampson said:


> But they are selling MORE period. If they produced fewer phones than in previous launches just to sell them out, I would agree with your thesis.


True- but they likely have a fairly good idea of the demand yet don't scale up initial release production accordingly, which leads me to think it could be deliberate. Think of this- they know they'll be sure to sell an additional X number of units by Xmas for sure, so why not produce the bulk of them before the launch? Apple also knows that historically they sell out very soon after the launch- so why not bump up the initial shipments? Either they really can't pull it off from a production standpoint (which is supposed to be one of Cook's strong suits) or it's deliberate.


----------



## Sampson

this isn't always the case. production capacity can be limited and the way Apple has released products in the past, there is no indication that this present release is below full capacity. Perhaps the strike months back caused shortage in a critical component? Regardless, I am quite surprised by the first week sales, I thought everyone already had an iPhone,, possible upgrade cycle? are there lots of v. 3 users out there still?


----------



## brad

I think the first week sales were boosted in part because Apple launched these new phones in more countries at the same time (including China) than they usually do. So they were reaching a larger market. That said, it wouldn't be surprising to me if this trend continued and these phones broke all previous sales records.


----------



## Toronto.gal

brad said:


> I think the first week sales were *boosted in part because Apple launched these new phones in more countries at the same time* (including China) than they usually do.


Absolutely that was key. Not only was the launch broader, but simultaneous as you said.


----------



## kcowan

As I understand it, they sold 9 million when the street was forecasting 5 million. I think most companies would experience stock-outs when they exceed forecasts by 80%! They also sold out of the gold model more quickly than the others.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The street forgot many key factors in their calculations.

Broader/*simultaneous launch* than previously; and more models/colours as well: iPhone 5s x 3 colours/5c x 6 colours.

China + gold = $9M.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24/china-gold-9-million-iphones-sold.html


----------



## andrewf

So Apple could have had 6 5s colours and 12 5c colours and doubled their sales?

I don't think the effect is that big...

Almost all the difference would be due to selling in more markets, I think.


----------



## Toronto.gal

andrewf said:


> So Apple could have had 6 5s colours and 12 5c colours and doubled their sales?


Is that what I said? :rolleyes2:

You once accused me of not quoting you in full, remember?


----------



## Toronto.gal

*In 2012*, between Sept.24th & 28th, the iPhone 5 was released in 11 + 22 countries respectively, but China followed 3 months later, and sold 2 million of them within the 1st 3 days.

*In 2013,* China did not have to wait, and neither did Puerto Rico, LOL.


----------



## Vitalogy80

The reason Apple is experiencing supply shortages is 2 fold...the launch is Global where before they focused on the US and Europe first and then and then Asia later. Now every country is basically part of the initial launch. Also, there are so many different models/sizes/colours now. 

Before when Apple released the iPhone 5 it had 6 different types to ship, 2 colours and 3 sizes. Now there are 9 different for the 5S and 15 for the 5C...it's a lot harder to gauge demand for 24 different types than it was for 6.


----------



## mike06

I cannot believe this "Icahn is short Apple" rumor that is all over the news. This has to be one of the more ridiculous things I've heard in awhile....


----------



## indexxx

Nice to see Aapl back up over $500- nice bump today. Hopefully it keeps up.


----------



## msands

*iPad/Mac event*

What did people think of the announcements today? iPad Air name sounds sorta corny, but the devices look impressive. Worried that AAPL might gap down tomorrow like it did after the iPhone event last month.


----------



## Hawkdog

http://qz.com/135629/xiaomi-has-beat-apple-in-china-but-can-it-win-over-the-rest-of-the-world/


----------



## Hawkdog

http://qz.com/138458/apple-is-eithe...rts-or-thinks-you-wont-notice-the-difference/


----------



## andrewf

iPad mini is still expensive, but at least it isn't inferior to the current Nexus 7.


----------



## Hawkdog

the thing Apple has going is battery life. in the new ipad air, the battery smaller but still has the same life as the older version, thats why they can make it smaller/lighter


----------



## gibor365

Apple (AAPL): FQ4 EPS of $8.26 beats by $0.33.
Revenue of $37.47B (+4% Y/Y) beats by $630M.
33.8M iPhones, 14.1M iPads, 4.6M Macs.
Expects FQ1 revenue of $55B-$58B vs. $55.65B consensus.
*And what the hell??!!*Shares -3.6% AH. CC at 5PM ET.


----------



## mike06

i think the only thing thats going to take these shares substantially higher is a hit new product. i could see a china mobile deal pushing the shares up quite a bit, but even then, earnings are pretty capped with the current product line and its going to take something new to go to the next level. even with those amazing results they still guided down on margins and earnings are flat despite the massive buybacks. i see no compelling reason to be LONG aapl without a new product release, the 'refreshes' can only take it so far


----------



## none

Agreed. I have an iphone 4 and it's more than adequate. Maybe I'll get a new one after another generation or two but I don't really feel the need.


----------



## indexxx

*China bites the Aapl*

quite surprised at the lack of AAPL posts the past while- of course big news with china mobile coming on board. Nice jump today on the SP.


----------



## Just a Guy

While I like apple, and hold some, I really can't see how it can go up a lot more and be justified. Is it really one of the most valuable companies in the world?

I think this company may suffer from irrational exuberance. Of course, I think it may continue to go up (so I haven't sold) but that's more from stupid investors than fundamentals.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Just a Guy said:


> Is it really one of the most valuable companies in the world?


It's an undervalued company with the richest dividend around; it's growth far from over IMHO, and why instead of selling at 250% profit in 2012 @ $700+, I added under $400 in 2013.

How much cash does the company have now, and the potential to do with it? If only I could figure out who they want to buy!

Apple's guidance for Q1 2014:

- revenue between $55 billion and $58 billion
- gross margin between 36.5 percent and 37.5 percent
- operating expenses between $4.4 billion and $4.5 billion
- other income/(expense) of $200 million
- tax rate of 26.25 percent


----------



## fatcat

Toronto.gal said:


> It's an undervalued company with the richest dividend around; it's growth far from over IMHO, and why instead of selling at 250% profit in 2012 @ $700+, I added under $400 in 2013.
> 
> How much cash does the company have now, and the potential to do with it? If only I could figure out who they want to buy!
> 
> Apple's guidance for Q1 2014:
> 
> - revenue between $55 billion and $58 billion
> - gross margin between 36.5 percent and 37.5 percent
> - operating expenses between $4.4 billion and $4.5 billion
> - other income/(expense) of $200 million
> - tax rate of 26.25 percent


i have been an appleholic since 1987 and i keep wondering if they are good short ? ... 

apple has sat still for the last 2 years and yes, gradually improved their iphone, ipad and macbook air but in the meantime samsung and google and others are making large leaps and turning out interesting tablets and phones on a monthly basis ...

i can buy a moto g phone (i did), a google nexus tablet (i did) and a google chromebook for $700, that's for 3 excellent by any measure (read the reviews) products, a laptop, a phone and a tablet for about $400 LESS than just the cost of apple macbook air

the apple products are all beautifully made and more polished and powerful, no doubt, but all 3 would cost $2500 versus my $700

i will be interested to see how 2014 goes for apple

i do own them but only through QQQ where they are top holding by far


----------



## andrewf

none said:


> Agreed. I have an iphone 4 and it's more than adequate. Maybe I'll get a new one after another generation or two but I don't really feel the need.


I heard iOS 7 made the iPhone 4 perform pretty poorly.


----------



## kcowan

DW loves the automatic synchronization between her iPhone 4S, iPad 2 and the cloud. I also get copies on my iCloud Photostream on the Win7 laptop. Seamless and painless...

We have only just begun to enjoy their automatic world...


----------



## Toronto.gal

fatcat said:


> 1. samsung and google and others are making large leaps and turning out interesting tablets and phones on a monthly basis ...
> 2. i will be interested to see how 2014 goes for apple


*1.* No argument whatsoever, but you're not saying that AAPL can't compete in near-future, and/or not doing anything about the competition. 

Their 2013 shopping list may or may not be impressive, but they surely must have many more strategic moves.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-19/apples-acquisitions-tripled-in-fiscal-2013

As for the cheaper competition [products], I'm covered there as well with other tech stocks, that have done better for me than AAPL even [considering how cheap I bought them]. 

*2.* Ditto!


----------



## fatcat

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* No argument whatsoever, but you're not saying that AAPL can't compete in near-future, and/or not doing anything about the competition.
> 
> Their 2013 shopping list may or may not be impressive, but they surely must have many more strategic moves.
> http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-19/apples-acquisitions-tripled-in-fiscal-2013
> 
> As for the cheaper competition [products], I'm covered there as well with other tech stocks, that have done better for me than AAPL even [considering how cheap I bought them].
> 
> *2.* Ditto!


no gal, i would never sell them short ... their skill has been innovation and inventing new categories, they may do it again ... 

i just think that their primary product line is too expensive relative to the competition ... apple (who i started using in 87) has a very strong sense that their products are premium except that phones, tablets and laptops are becoming generic and just "stuff", the premium features are being matched by competitors at lower prices ... 

i just bought a motorola moto-g for $200 off contract, it's a very good looking, very fast little phone with a decent camera, there is the google nexus 5 which is also excellent off-contract for $350 versus an iphone 5s at $719 ... this has to take a toll after a while

not too mention that in web / online services, apple is far behind google


----------



## Causalien

fatcat said:


> no gal, i would never sell them short ... their skill has been innovation and inventing new categories, they may do it again ...
> 
> i just think that their primary product line is too expensive relative to the competition ... apple (who i started using in 87) has a very strong sense that their products are premium except that phones, tablets and laptops are becoming generic and just "stuff", the premium features are being matched by competitors at lower prices ...
> 
> i just bought a motorola moto-g for $200 off contract, it's a very good looking, very fast little phone with a decent camera, there is the google nexus 5 which is also excellent off-contract for $350 versus an iphone 5s at $719 ... this has to take a toll after a while
> 
> not too mention that in web / online services, apple is far behind google


I am not a big apple fan. But After comparing and using most of the phone out there. I ended up buying an iphone. For developers and people doing business, Iphone is still the most reliable. It is also, the only phone that doesn't run into connection/technology problems when you switch countries and have to deal with a different cell/wifi infrastructure. So they will always have that core crowd where reliable performance is absolutely necessary as a tool of the trade.

Until someone invents the next step (i.e google glass) apple will Always be in its current spot.


----------



## andrewf

Nexus 5 has just as good connectivity as iPhone. iPhone only recently added AWS support, for that matter. Pretty much all the devs I know use Nexus series Android devices.


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Nexus 5 has just as good connectivity as iPhone. iPhone only recently added AWS support, for that matter. Pretty much all the devs I know use Nexus series Android devices.


+1 from me ... these are excellent little phones 

check out andy ihnatko who is a columnist for the sun-times and a longtime apple user and fan
he has switched to android http://www.techhive.com/article/2030042/why-i-switched-from-iphone-to-android.html


----------



## braintootired

How exactly do you vote as a shareholder? I want to vote against Icahn's proposal. Do my shares even have voting rights?


----------



## Just a Guy

You should get a notice for the AGM and voting information in the mail. The form has all the votable issues and the board's recommendations, as well as submission information.


----------



## kcowan

You can also use proxyvote.com and get your Investment house to send you your proxy # online. I do that with TDDI.


----------



## GOB

I'm back.

2014 should be a strong year for Apple and AAPL due to the following:

- iPhone 5s/5c are a huge success in important markets (USA, Japan). One study has pegged almost half of iPhone 5c sales coming from previous Android users. 
- Smartphone market share continues to grow in North America
- China Mobile deal will likely add tens of millions of iPhone sales
- iPad Air looks to be a huge success and should reinvigorate iPad sales growth.
- iOS usage dominates Android (more important metric for platform stickiness and viability than simple market share, IMO)
- Mac Pro will sell well and reinforces Apple's innovative image
- Likely iWatch launch (lots of smoke in 2013, and where there is smoke there's fire)
- Gross margins should be relatively stable compared to 2013, with increasing revenue = increased EPS
- Aggressive buybacks will further boost EPS
- Another dividend increase should set a higher floor on the stock
- Current valuation is very attractive compared to other tech stocks


----------



## avrex

Welcome back GOB


GOB said:


> - Current valuation is very attractive compared to other tech stocks


I completely agree here.


----------



## braintootired

What caused the 15 point loss today?


----------



## cannadian

GOB said:


> I'm back.
> 
> 2014 should be a strong year for Apple and AAPL due to the following:
> 
> - iPhone 5s/5c are a huge success in important markets (USA, Japan). One study has pegged almost half of iPhone 5c sales coming from previous Android users.
> - Smartphone market share continues to grow in North America
> - China Mobile deal will likely add tens of millions of iPhone sales
> - iPad Air looks to be a huge success and should reinvigorate iPad sales growth.
> - iOS usage dominates Android (more important metric for platform stickiness and viability than simple market share, IMO)
> - Mac Pro will sell well and reinforces Apple's innovative image
> - Likely iWatch launch (lots of smoke in 2013, and where there is smoke there's fire)
> - Gross margins should be relatively stable compared to 2013, with increasing revenue = increased EPS
> - Aggressive buybacks will further boost EPS
> - Another dividend increase should set a higher floor on the stock
> - Current valuation is very attractive compared to other tech stocks


Great post. I completely agree about your assessment of 2014. I also think the usage factor that you highlighted is of key importance. On usage Apple is *completely* dominating Android, and Apple still leads the way in customer satisfaction, product integration, customer experience, etc.



braintootired said:


> What caused the 15 point loss today?


Not sure. Maybe the article about the NSA? Maybe the Wells Fargo downgrade? Maybe the slow start to China Mobile pre-orders (though we don't even know the subsidy/price-point yet!)?

I don't think any of these variables will really affect the long-term performance of the stock so I just view it as noise. 2 step forward, 1 step back kinda thing.


----------



## indexxx

Great to see you again GOB. Your insights were well and truly missed. Welcome back into the Aapl fray!


----------



## avrex

AAPL down close to 8% after hours.
I don't currently own any, but I'm having a look at it again. Current dividend, 2.4%


----------



## andrewf

Heard a rumour that Apple will drop the 'c' (plastic case) device in their next refresh. Also, Apple has announced they will be selling the iPhone 4 (not even S) in India for ~$379. Not sure what they are thinking, when Motorola sells the Moto G for under $200, and it's a better device.

I think Apple is going to struggle to make affordable/entry level phones without harming their core flagship business. My guess is that they just won't bother, and will be content with a small market share among premium handsets.


----------



## gibor365

Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $14.50 beats by $0.41.Revenue of $57.59B (+6% Y/Y) beats by $130M. Surprised to see AAP down almost 8% after hours....  
Anyone is planning to buy AAPL on pullback?


----------



## mike06

As I said back in October I still see no good reason to be long the company until they come up with something new. Their earnings are clearly capped and their guidance was crummy.


----------



## braintootired

They missed iPhone sale by 3 million (51 vs 54 est). This drop completely negates my covered call gains, and puts me at a $2k loss.


----------



## fatcat

braintootired said:


> They missed iPhone sale by 3 million (51 vs 54 est). This drop completely negates my covered call gains, and puts me at a $2k loss.


the iphone is an excellent phone ... excellent ... but i just bought a moto-g off-contract for $200, and it is a really good looking, really fast little phone with a great screen and decent enough camera ... compare that to the $720+ for an iphone off contract ... this is going to begin to really hurt ...and google/motorola are just getting started on high quality really cheap phones ... apple has a big problem on their hands .. the ipad is fine for now anyway but the iphone is rough waters at the moment imo


----------



## MoreMiles

Yeah try to keep selling $700-900 phones. You can only sell so many. Try to sell the same buyers 5 times (iPhone 5) then you are a good dreamer.


----------



## braintootired

Premium android phones are too big for me. If there's a good 4 inch android phone I'd have bought it a long time ago. Same with 4:3 android tablets.


----------



## andrewf

Have you tried the Moto X? Dimensions are 129.3 x 65.3 x 10.4 mm vs 123.8 x 58.6 x 7.6 mm for iphone 5s. Not a whole lot bigger, but a much larger screen (no hardware button to waste space).


----------



## braintootired

Haven't tried it, and now family's locked in the iOS ecosystem, so too late. No point in switching away from iPhones.

Apple needs to forget the smart watch and compete against Google Glass. If any wearable tech has a chance of being the next hit it's augmented reality goggles.


----------



## indexxx

I really doubt that personally- I agree that wearable tech is potentially massive, but I just don't see (pun intended!) the Glass being a hit for several reasons. First, it's incredibly intrusive to have this thing sitting on one's face. Second, would you walk around having to speak to your glasses all day? Third, battery life. I just don't think these are practical and doubt that any significant fraction of the population will adopt them, unlike phones.


----------



## braintootired

This is yesterday's Apple after-hours time and sales.

Who's the lucky ******* at 18:48:28?


----------



## GOB

Not a great earnings or guidance. I was also surprised at the low iPhone number, but did anyone even listen to the conference call? The (main) reason is not that people who previously bought iPhones are now buying cheaper phones. Believe me, it isn't Motorola who is causing problems to Apple - I won't comment on the quality of their phones but the fact is that they are a bit player who have had very little success. The main reasons as stated by Tim Cook are:

1) Supply imbalance for the entire quarter. Apple thought they would sell more iPhone 5c phones than they did, when in reality more people wanted the 5s. It took time to build enough units to match demand, and this affected sales. 

2) One of the weaker markets this quarter was the US (also one of the richest). There have been changes to the subsidy models taking away the opportunity for people to upgrade early. This has a result in a deferred sale that will show up later - not a lost sale. 

Guidance in my opinion is extremely weak and disappointing. I'm not sure how the numbers will be this low given the addition of China Mobile, but given Apple's shift to accurate guidance it must be believed. My patience is wearing thin at this point - I was expecting a return to at least marginal net income growth. 

At this point, I don't expect much positive action from the stock until it returns to net income growth or a new product category is announced. On the other hand, valuation is extremely attractive to a long term investor, considering the dividend, buybacks and growing cash pile. There is also conservativeness built into Apple's numbers, as they book off the full tax hit for overseas cash (most companies don't do this) and are also now deferring a larger portion of each iOS device as deferred revenue as a result of offering free productivity software. In the coming quarters, this deferred revenue will begin to be realized and help the numbers a bit. 

The best news is getting a clear cut "Yes, absolutely" from Tim Cook in response to a question about a new product category being launched in 2014. Apple has clearly been taking their time in developing this product (I suspect an iWatch) so I expect it to be very well polished and to have an "I want one right now" reaction as the iPhone and iPad did. It will not be as big of a market as smartphones or tablets, but it will be huge and will put to rest a lot of negative remarks about Apple.


----------



## humble_pie

GOB said:


> Not a great ...
> 
> I don't expect much ...
> 
> The best news ...



just in case, though, couldn't u find another company at an early stage?


----------



## andrewf

I'm curious to see Apple's implementation of a smart watch. The options out there now seem to be pretty fadish. As a mere accessory to a phone, I think it has a limited market. I would expect it to emphasize health monitoring/fitness.


----------



## GOB

humble_pie said:


> just in case, though, couldn't u find another company at an early stage?


I welcome suggestions! 

At these levels I think there is a great opportunity in AAPL. Especially if you play the options smartly. Just think about this - with zero growth and assuming no change to the current capital return policy, AAPL will have reduced outstanding shares by 7-10% (resulting in increased EPS) and also have about $300 billion in cash on the balance sheet within 5 years. This is a very bearish scenario, and I don't see AAPL trading below 2x cash unless there are serious problems in the company. Add in a new product category or two that are almost sure to boost earnings significantly, and I think AAPL remains an excellent long term investment.

Andrew - Apple has been aggressively hiring experts in the medical sensor field. You can be sure the iWatch, if it ever happens, is going to be unbelievable.


----------



## andrewf

It's going to have to be if it's going to move the needle.


----------



## MoreMiles

Stocks don't trade on valuation. It's on hope... looks at Amazon. So aapl can be a value trap like msft for decades.


----------



## MoreMiles

GOB said:


> I welcome suggestions!
> 
> At these levels I think there is a great opportunity in AAPL. Especially if you play the options smartly. Just think about this - with zero growth and assuming no change to the current capital return policy, AAPL will have reduced outstanding shares by 7-10% (resulting in increased EPS) and also have about $300 billion in cash on the balance sheet within 5 years. This is a very bearish scenario, and I don't see AAPL trading below 2x cash unless there are serious problems in the company. Add in a new product category or two that are almost sure to boost earnings significantly, and I think AAPL remains an excellent long term investment.
> 
> Andrew - Apple has been aggressively hiring experts in the medical sensor field. You can be sure the iWatch, if it ever happens, is going to be unbelievable.


I do not want to have to charge my watch every night. Nobody will want to take off their glass, phone, tablet, wallet, and watch to charge every night before they can sleep. We are not robot so I don't think people will get convinced about wearable junks. Do you know how many chargers and devices people have on their night stand already? I think it's a failure before any attempt.


----------



## GOB

Maybe you won't need to? The M7 chip is very low power and communication between devices can be done through Bluetooth LE. 

I agree charging every day will not be good, but don't assume that's the only option. Remember, it's not going to be a smartphone replacement - it's going to have entirely different use cases along with some core phone/message functionality (my opinion/guess).


----------



## andrewf

There are some smart watches that manage a few days, but they use e-ink displays. Traditional display technology IPS/AMOLED is probably not going to work very well for smart watches (outdoor brightness). Wireless charging should also be included, though Apple has so far eschewed wireless charging in their other devices (present in Google's Nexus devices for the past 18 months).


----------



## braintootired

What were those trades that were 550 AH?


----------



## humble_pie

braintootired said:


> What were those trades that were 550 AH?



reportedly (nasdaq) some kind of 550 at 16:30:36 hours but all bracketing trades were in the 505-507 range so it looks like a reporting mistake.

don't be too discouraged. It's common for celebrity stocks to plummet when bad news comes out but often they recover as the market realizes things not so bad after all, more a question of some salt + some pepper.

i'm not talking about long-term AAPL (have no clue) but when there's a knee-jerk plunge i would be expecting some upwards correction in the days/weeks to follow.

in the meantime you have time to plan your option strategies. Where were you, the 545s of 31 jan, i seem to recall?

obviously you could go to lower strikes & keep on selling the weeklies & thus seek to mend your capital over time. This is probably what i would do (hint: i wouldn't go lower than 525 & i'm one who'd take longer in time while sticking to the 530s-550s) (yea i know this is highly unfashionable.)

you could also do a metatheta manoeuvre & just take the loss & go somewhere else.


----------



## braintootired

I'm long at 555, and I made a total of 25 selling calls so far. Going to keep selling weeklies, or maybe longer, to try and break even.

I sold a Jan 31 515 Call for $3, it's a bit tight. If the stock doesn't soar tomorrow, will close and sell one at a higher strike.

I could also sell a Jan 2015 600 Call for $25, and just "set it and forget it". That'd save on commissions, at least.


----------



## fatcat

i would think wireless charging would be a necessity with a smart watch, you take it off at night and put it on a charging pad

count me a naysayer, i don't see it

unless they are going to invent an entirely new category, i can't imagine the hassle of syncing and charging an iphone, imac or macbook air, ipad and iwatch, ... forget it

i am pretty techy and i am having trouble just syncing my new ipad air (a very fine product) to my ipod touch and mac mini (i use my moto-g as mainly an emergency / occasional phone)

apple has a big problem in that they are are locked into being a premium price / premium device company and everyone else is coming at them with much cheaper and almost just as good alternatives


----------



## indexxx

Just a snippet from one of my OTHER favourite websites...

http://connect.dpreview.com/post/46...ource=news-list&utm_medium=text&ref=title_0_5


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## Pluto

Apparently AAPL's growth is coming from the iPhone, while revenue from it's other products is in slow decline. It concern's me, and it could be a factor in why it's p/e ratio is lower than the S&P p/e ratio. AAPL *looks* undervalued compared to the S&P, but is it really? It's iPhone is a high quality and useful product, but there is a fad aspect to interest in such products as smart phone buyers want the latest and greatest and have no loyalty to a brand name. So I'm reluctant to fall in love with this one. If AAPL's other products were seeing increasing revenue growth, it wouldn't be as risky. Too, Jobs is gone. I assume he was the creative heart of that company. With him gone, it concerns me. The future product pipeline might not be as innovative and exciting. Is the % ownership by institutions slowly getting lower? Mutual finds might be quietly reducing their holdings due to such concerns, and that in turn might explain its comparatively low p/e.


----------



## MilkMan

Pluto said:


> Apparently AAPL's growth is coming from the iPhone, while revenue from it's other products is in slow decline. It concern's me, and it could be a factor in why it's p/e ratio is lower than the S&P p/e ratio. AAPL *looks* undervalued compared to the S&P, but is it really? It's iPhone is a high quality and useful product, but there is a fad aspect to interest in such products as smart phone buyers want the latest and greatest and have no loyalty to a brand name. So I'm reluctant to fall in love with this one. If AAPL's other products were seeing increasing revenue growth, it wouldn't be as risky. Too, Jobs is gone. I assume he was the creative heart of that company. With him gone, it concerns me. The future product pipeline might not be as innovative and exciting. Is the % ownership by institutions slowly getting lower? Mutual finds might be quietly reducing their holdings due to such concerns, and that in turn might explain its comparatively low p/e.


I think the % of institutional has gone down. 

How are you evaluating P/E though? I used to calculate it by subtracting the cash horde from the price: I no longer do that. Apple has shown that they are unwilling/unable to use their cash horde (for tax purposes). An asset that can't be used isn't much of an asset to me.

On top of that, the cash pile keeps growing; they are essentially adding to an under-utilized/unusable asset. 

If you don't consider the cash horde as an asset, the P/E isn't too badly under-priced...


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## GOB

iPads grew more than expected - it was actually iPhone sales that disappointed, but there were reasons behind it that signify it may have been a blip rather than a trend, especially with China Mobile on the horizon. 

Brand loyalty is huge. iOS has huge ecosystem lock in, and has the most repeat customers of any platform, so I don't know what you're talking about there. Apple boasts one of the best brand loyalty on the planet, let alone in tech.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> iPads grew more than expected - it was actually iPhone sales that disappointed, but there were reasons behind it that signify it may have been a blip rather than a trend, especially with China Mobile on the horizon.
> 
> Brand loyalty is huge. iOS has huge ecosystem lock in, and has the most repeat customers of any platform, so I don't know what you're talking about there. Apple boasts one of the best brand loyalty on the planet, let alone in tech.


true enough but the vast majority of the world has yet to own a real smartphone, laptop or tablet ... you can't be loyal if you have never owned the product ... the new buyers will be people who are just buying their first consumer goods and price will matter

not to mention the fact that most of apples really loyal customers are pretty much stocked up on electronics (though i did just buy an ipad air and love it)


----------



## Pluto

MilkMan said:


> I think the % of institutional has gone down.
> 
> How are you evaluating P/E though?


Just the one available on Yahoo, 12.6. Trailing p/e I presume. S&P is 16 - 17 p/e. wondering why aapl would not expand with the S&P p/e.


----------



## andrewf

The market is telling you that it is not optimistic about future earnings, especially once you consider how much cash is on their balance sheet. Given that management is likely more confident in the company's future than the market, they should be aggressively buying back shares.


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## MilkMan

andrewf said:


> The market is telling you that it is not optimistic about future earnings, especially once you consider how much cash is on their balance sheet. Given that management is likely more confident in the company's future than the market, they should be aggressively buying back shares.


They have been buying back shares; lots of them. But I believe they had to finance the cost since the 'cash' on their balance sheet can't be used without heavy tax burdens.

They have a huge asset that they won't touch. Not much of an asset if you ask me (seems like wallstreet agrees).


----------



## PatInTheHat

I see apple as neutral to declining until they innovate. Until I see something new I won't be touching it unless the price gets ridiculous cheap.


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## james4beach

I think Apple has been a remarkably long lived fad; a fashionable company with fashionable products. But all fashions fade and that's the problem... also AAPL has tremendous institutional ownership. At a market cap of nearly $500 billion, the problem is, you can't find many more people to buy it. Any mutual fund out there that could have bought AAPL, already bought it.

Over-owned


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## braintootired

Apple has a lot of upside with new product categories. Wearables, smart TV, mobile payment, bigger phones and tablets.

Apple definitely isn't a fad. The stock was when it hit 700, but its products aren't.


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## james4beach

When it comes to fashion (and Apple is primarily a fashion company) it's very hard to predict when something will no longer be hot.

Things go out of fashion in the blink of an eye. Android is already catching on like crazy and demonstrating its benefits.

If Apple falls out of fashion, it's all over... and due to the fickle nature of fashion-minded people, this can happen very swiftly when the time comes. Those same people who loved the commercials of the dancing silhouettes with white headphones, may instead become enchanted with commercials of pink elephants blowing bubbles (or whatever the hell comes next)

That's what I mean... fashion. It's fickle. Apple didn't become huge like this on technical merits. It became huge because many people loved those pretty commercials, sleek designs and wanted to buy the cool thing their friends were buying


----------



## leeder

Apple has two choices if they want to do well and for their stock price to improve. Either they can create the next big 'wow' item that is a must own for consumers or create shareholder value by buying back shares/distributing dividends. 

Before Steve Jobs passed away, Apple was in the former group. Apple was innovative and marketed their products well. Now, there is much more competition with the likes of Android, and Apple has not come out with anything to differentiate itself. In addition, many people, who own smartphones or tablets, likely have a fairly recent version of them already. Consumers are unlikely to blow $700-$800 every year or so to replace a product that has changed very little in comparison to the new product. Someone, like Carl Icahn, likely recognizes that and has now pushed Apple to the latter group (i.e., create shareholder value). Tim Cook has shown reluctance on additional share buyback and dividend increases. Unless Apple evolves and innovates, I just don't see the company's share price soaring back to their old highs.


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## andrewf

The only reason Cook should be reluctant to buy back shares is if he's not optimistic about future earnings. Apple is trading at a fairly low multiple, and share buybacks would give a strong kick to EPS even if total profits are flat or declining. Apple stock is on sale--why is management not backing up the truck? Apple doesn't have a history of making huge capital-intensive investments (blockbuster acquisitions or high R&D spending), so it really has no use for the cash.


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## fatcat

james4beach said:


> I think Apple has been a remarkably long lived fad; a fashionable company with fashionable products. But all fashions fade and that's the problem... also AAPL has tremendous institutional ownership. At a market cap of nearly $500 billion, the problem is, you can't find many more people to buy it. Any mutual fund out there that could have bought AAPL, already bought it.
> 
> Over-owned


not necessarily

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...not-apple/article16572794/#dashboard/follows/


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> The only reason Cook should be reluctant to buy back shares is if he's not optimistic about future earnings. Apple is trading at a fairly low multiple, and share buybacks would give a strong kick to EPS even if total profits are flat or declining. Apple stock is on sale--why is management not backing up the truck? Apple doesn't have a history of making huge capital-intensive investments (blockbuster acquisitions or high R&D spending), so it really has no use for the cash.


great point, they refuse to do this so far



> That's what I mean... fashion. It's fickle. Apple didn't become huge like this on technical merits. It became huge because many people loved those pretty commercials, sleek designs and wanted to buy the cool thing their friends were buying


this is such an utterly clueless statment it's hard to know where to begin to refute it ....

they do make fashionable and good looking products but the basis of their success has always been their technological skill and execution ... 

the iphone *invented an entirely new category of product that is changing how the world does business*, are you kidding me ? ... where do you get this stuff ? ... you bias and lack of understanding of the development of technology over the last 20 years is breathtaking

the entire range of apples products are technically excellent and easy to use (and also expensive, too expensive i think)

they are getting to be overpriced and liable to be copied and sold for less by competitors but to reduce apple's success to fancy tv ads is just clueless


----------



## james4beach

fatcat said:


> not necessarily
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...not-apple/article16572794/#dashboard/follows/


Interesting assertion they're making, it doesn't jive

AAPL is the top holding in the S&P 500. It's 3% of the most popular index in the world (look up SPY, IVV, etc)
AAPL is far and away the top holding in the NASDAQ-100. *It's over 11% of the index*, at one point was 20% of the index, e.g. QQQ

These are the benchmark indexes. S&P 500 is what every mutual fund indexes to. So what are you saying will happen, will a whole bunch of new AAPL buying happen... what target percent of the S&P 500 will they reach, do you think? Will they become 5% of the S&P 500? 10% of the S&P 500 ?

Any stock that's the top holding of the S&P 500, and a gigantic part of the NASDAQ index, is already heavily owned... and I would say over-owned


----------



## fatcat

I have been well known to be bearish on apple lately
I think that they are going to see increasing competition in all categories which will put a lot of pressure on margins
They have set themselves as a premium product company and the difference in price between their premium products and competing lower priced products in now too large
and I don't see a big new product category to save their bacon
They are maturing and now need to find a way to deliver more products at better prices.
Like android is doing.


----------



## brad

I think what'll happen is that Apple will settle back into being the company it has historically been, which is a relatively small but highly profitable niche player in most of its markets. Apple didn't design the iPhone with the idea of market domination -- they designed the iPhone because all of the other then-current "smartphones" on the market sucked and Apple saw an opportunity to redesign the smart phone so people could actually use it. And then they had a hit on their hands. 

I've never got the sense that they're interested in dominating their markets, but when they happen to get into that position they try to milk it for all they can before the competition starts cutting them down.

I do think they have new things up their sleeve, much more interesting than a watch, and I'm skeptical that they've lost any of their power to innovate. It's just that no company can produce something revolutionary every few years, and people are expecting too much of Apple in that regard.


----------



## Pluto

GOB said:


> iPads grew more than expected - it was actually iPhone sales that disappointed, but there were reasons behind it that signify it may have been a blip rather than a trend, especially with China Mobile on the horizon.
> 
> Brand loyalty is huge. iOS has huge ecosystem lock in, and has the most repeat customers of any platform, so I don't know what you're talking about there. Apple boasts one of the best brand loyalty on the planet, let alone in tech.


Well I'm not talking about loyalty to the MAC and laptops. I'm talking about brand loyalty to smart phones. Some years ago most of the 20 something year olds I knew had Blackberries, then out of the blue they all had iPhones, and more recently over half of them have Samsung's. Unlike MAC lovers, smart phone buyers don't seem to care who makes the phones. And speaking of Blackberry, management assumed brand loyalty, but it was all in their imagination. While it is clear that Apple has brand loyalty in its other products, I don't see it in smart phones.


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## MilkMan

What do you guys think about apple spinning off some of it's divisions? IE spinning off the retail - which has a ridiculous return per sq feet. I don't think some of their assets are being priced into the stock.

RE - buybacks: I don't think they have the cash to do much more for buybacks. Most of their horde is overseas - they can't spend it without paying taxes.


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## indexxx

Love my iPhone, my wife had a new Samsung Galaxy and I hated it. I'm sticking with Apple.


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## marina628

I switched from Blackberry to Apple just because of Siri , I hate typing when I don't have to.


----------



## Addy

marina628 said:


> I switched from Blackberry to Apple just because of Siri , I hate typing when I don't have to.


Our whole family loves Siri, my husband loves her sexy voice, me, I'm like Marina and simply like Siri for when I don't feel like typing, and my daughter (6 yrs old) asks Siri "What does the fox say!?" over, and over and over and over...! We're an apple family but I am starting to think Android is the way to go.


----------



## braintootired

Picked up a refurbished Apple TV. Not bad for $80.

I used to laugh at this 4 years ago, but now that I have an HDTV I actually see its value.


----------



## james4beach

marina628 said:


> I switched from Blackberry to Apple just because of Siri , I hate typing when I don't have to.


My Android tablet has fantastic voice recognition, and I only paid $99 for the tablet

Perhaps Siri is better, but is it worth 2x or 3x the price?


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## andrewf

Google's voice recognition is better than Siri. Siri is just better packaged (anthropomorphism). People say Siri has a sense of humour because it's been programmed with set responses to certain questions.


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Google's voice recognition is better than Siri. Siri is just better packaged (anthropomorphism). People say Siri has a sense of humour because it's been programmed with set responses to certain questions.


agree, though both, as "personal assistants" have a long, long way to go

andrew, i sold my nexus and bought an ipad ... i just couldn't keep up with all the cross syncing of different os's ... i now have a mac mini, an ipod touch 5G and an ipad air and a moto-g phone (which i only sync contacts on from apple address book)

when i set up my ipad i turned siri _off_ from the git-go

i can see clearly that apple and google are fighting hard to keep people locked into the ecosystem, hence we will continue to see all kinds of components, software and so on packaged freely with the devices

it leaves microsoft in a tough spot

i have to belive we will see them split into a free consumer operating system for phones and tablets and desktops

and then a more complex and robust business operating system for desktops that you still pay for, more along the lines of oracle and serious business software

i would tend to bet on google over apple and microsoft

but i would only own them all, as i do, through QQQ


----------



## brad

This might be a naive question, but I wonder if Apple might eventually decide to go private? Do they really benefit anymore from having their shares traded on the market?


----------



## andrewf

Using google's services makes a lot more sense. They are not interested in locking you into hardware, and will gladly let you use their services on iOS. Locking yourself into the ecosystem of a company that gouges their users seems a bit foolish to me.


Brad, I think it would be quite a feat to take Apple private. They'd have to offer a substantial premium, and that would be by far the largest leveraged buyout in history. And are there shareholders interested in owning closely held shares in a $500 billion company? Pension funds/sovereign wealth funds?


----------



## braintootired

andrewf said:


> Using google's services makes a lot more sense. They are not interested in locking you into hardware, and will gladly let you use their services on iOS. Locking yourself into the ecosystem of a company that gouges their users seems a bit foolish to me.


Obviously if you don't see the value of Apple's hardware then you wouldn't pay the Apple premium.

But how often do you upgrade? I buy a new computer or laptop every 5 years. A new phone every 3. I haven't even upgraded from my iPad yet. So when I do, I don't mind paying a bit more.


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## marina628

I use it for face time and Siri for doing my emails and texting and a few photos , I may use my cell phone as a phone about 4 minutes a month lol


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Using google's services makes a lot more sense. They are not interested in locking you into hardware, and will gladly let you use their services on iOS. Locking yourself into the ecosystem of a company that gouges their users seems a bit foolish to me.


fair points ... though i believe google is just as motivated to have you go all-google as apple is having you go all-apple

what it comes down to me is the desktop computer

i will have a desktop computer for at least another decade and so that becomes the starting point for lack of a better term, everything follows from there

i agree apple is overpriced and i don't like paying for it and show that by using a moto-g phone

but apples desktop operating system is much much easier to work with in my opinion

i used win xp and win 7 both for several years in business and still believe that osx is a much easier and more productive system to work on ... and despite years and years of predictions of doom, it remains relatively more secure than windows

so that pretty much has determined my choice

i think apple will be forced to to trim pricing on all their products in the future

i see already that future shop has reduced the iphone 5s to 279 from 329 just now, there is a reason why this is happening

apple is feeling the pinch from android and the rest of the universe


----------



## kcowan

Apple has never cared about the mainstream. They care about creating and maintaining their products with high brand loyalty and high margins. If this ever changes, they will no longer be a principal holding of mine.


----------



## praire_guy

brad said:


> This might be a naive question, but I wonder if Apple might eventually decide to go private? Do they really benefit anymore from having their shares traded on the market?


Can this be asked of many other companies? KO, PG, etc. what benefit is there of the shares being traded, other than the investment industry making money, and us investing. 

But stocks are issued for cash infusion of a young company. Would companies be best off buying back all the shares?


----------



## andrewf

A company still has to have shareholders. Someone has to own it.


----------



## none

Tim cook did a good job at the iphone 5 launch


----------



## braintootired

Ya, but Apple's quantum teleporter would be locked into iOS...


----------



## gibor365

none said:


> Tim cook did a good job at the iphone 5 launch


What a piece of BS ....typical American "humor"


----------



## andrewf

I don't think any Apple fans should take the sketch too seriously. It's funny because Cook is nothing like that.


----------



## james4beach

Thanks for the clip. The white-face is funny


----------



## braintootired

So angry bitcoin fans have been uploading videos of them smashing their iPhones because Apple removed all bitcoin apps.

Which is odd, since they would have done more damage to Apple had they SOLD their iPhones secondhand, denying Apple profit.

But I guess if they're rich enough for smash a 700$ phone because of an app, they must be right.


----------



## andrewf

Can't you just jailbreak + sideload?


----------



## AnimeEd

andrewf said:


> Can't you just jailbreak + sideload?


As long as it won't be in the app store, developers will stop updating and making bitcoin apps


----------



## gibor365

Nice AAPL shares buyback $14B


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

Sometimes I worry about Apple for the long term. I'm a big fan but don't own shares. We have an iPhone, iPad, MacBook etc. Most of their products have been game changers. When Jobs was in charge they could do no wrong. But can it really be continued? How many more game changers can they come up with? Competition for cell phones is heating up and lots of other companies are gaining traction. Only time will tell. As I said I'm a big fan but just not sure they can continue to come out with the innovative stuff they've had in the past. Any shareholders care to chime in?


----------



## indexxx

There's a lot of talk about Apple and Jobs and their ability to innovate. Of course Jobs was a one-of-a-kind genius; but that does not negate the fact that there are others of nearly equal vision around- and Apple can afford to attract them. And Ivy is brilliant also. I'd personally never count Apple out of anything.

One never knows what will happen of course- they could fail miserably but I doubt it. The reason is that they are so entrenched and have so many bright people involved- one can be sure that Apple is cognizant of each and every trend and rumour in tech, and are always strategizing how to adopt and improve ideas. My feeling is that they will release a few ho-hum ideas interspersed with some incredible stuff, and all the while burying themselves ever deeper into the fabric of daily life. Cars, TVs, wearables, 3D printing, educational institutions, medical and health, commercial applications (for example as someone in management in the restaurant industry, I've always thought that Apple should come in and kill Micros, Squirrel, Aloha, Halo, Profitek, Remanco, Positouch, and every other POS system with some awesome, simple solution. MASSIVE market). All are ripe for the picking and who knows what may be coming down the pike?

I haven't been on Apple's website for quite a while, and just yesterday checked it out after seeing their new Mac Pro on a photographer's blog- it's freakin' INSANE. Expensive as hell, but if I had the cash and the need I'd be all over it.
http://www.apple.com/ca/mac-pro/

That's an incredibly innovative machine. Not world-changing like the iPod/phone/pad but shows me that they are not sitting on their laurels. One of the secrets of success in anything is to constantly tweak everything you do- and Apple are masters of that.


----------



## Ebin

OurBigFatWallet said:


> Sometimes I worry about Apple for the long term. I'm a big fan but don't own shares. We have an iPhone, iPad, MacBook etc. Most of their products have been game changers. When Jobs was in charge they could do no wrong. But can it really be continued? How many more game changers can they come up with? Competition for cell phones is heating up and lots of other companies are gaining traction. Only time will tell. As I said I'm a big fan but just not sure they can continue to come out with the innovative stuff they've had in the past. Any shareholders care to chime in?


I think the era of game changers may be over not because Apple can't innovate (their rates of innovation seems to be accelerating) but because the law of large numbers has kicked in. What possible market could Apple get into that would significantly change their bottom line with their current revenues? Their iPhone business is bigger than Microsoft and their iPad business is bigger than many Fortune 500s. Just their Mac business did over $6B last quarter, $6B was their game changer some years ago and now people expect a $25-50B innovation to show up. (edit: example: http://www.asymco.com/2014/02/10/fortune-130/ - Just their iTunes store would be in the Fortune 130)

Someone a few pages back dismissed Apple as a "fashion" - I think that's a significant misunderstanding of how they are using technology. Their release of a mobile 64bit processor caught their competitors completely off guard (Qualcomm's head of marketing slagged it and promptly got reassigned) and it lays major groundwork to turn tablets into more than just devices to surf and check email. 

Apple actually a pretty transparent company in terms of strategy - whether it's Steve Jobs or Tim Cook talking, the message is the same: We build only great products and we get into new fields when the technology allows us to build a great product. We do less rather than more. 

Any "delay" in launching a TV or a "iWatch" etc is merely a matter of the technology they want not being ready. (The Retina screens are an example of a technology being just barely ready).

Overall, my view is that the stock is hugely undervalued but at the same time I think people need to stop seeing it as a growth stock. This is stock that's paying a substantial dividend that's still growing in the double digits with products with massive lock-in. Even a brief stoppage of innovation still results in huge profits and I don't see the innovation stopping.


----------



## gibor365

This Xmas my wife gave me as a present mini-iPod touch (before I had for 10 years old iPod wheel), my son got Mac laptop.... I can only say that AAPL making amazing products, much better than competitiors


----------



## Video_Frank

gibor said:


> I can only say that AAPL making amazing products, much better than competitiors


That's a fairly bold statement.


----------



## peterk

^^ That's the point I suppose. Unless you're a techie who's obsessed with "performance per dollar" when making your electronic purchases, apple produces ARE much better than the competitors... in the eye of the beholder.


----------



## andrewf

An Apple laptop is objectively better than a PC that costs 1/3rd as much. The trouble is when comparing to laptop PCs around the same price point. You can get much more performance and good build quality in PCs, too. There are gaming laptops are well-built, slim and destroy macbooks in performance (plus are compatible with far more applications).


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> There are gaming laptops are well-built, slim and destroy macbooks in performance (plus are compatible with far more applications).


Not everybody games on their laptop though.. (phones and tablets are used to game more than consoles and pc now) I like the quality of my MacBook and I had a roommate who had a similarly priced Asus. When we fly, my battery lasts the whole flight and his lasts a few hours.. and I travel a lot so the battery is important. I can still post process massive DSLR raw images and 1080p HD video just fine. What really sets a MacBook apart from a PC is the track pad and gestures. I have a Windows 7 machine with much "better" hardware specs running alongside my MacBook and it is actually noticeably slower.. software makes a difference

The next iPhone could be make or break for Apple imo. A lot of people still have iPhone 4 who were perfectly happy with them but they are finishing their contracts, and iOS 7 really bogs down the iPhone 4. If the next iPhone is good, it could sell a lot to previous 4 users, or they might decide to go to Android now that it's matured


----------



## andrewf

I think it's important that they offer a larger version. 4.7 in screen minimum. It's odd that iOS 7 is such a hog. Android 4.4 actually rolls back system requirements and works well on 2 - 3 year old devices.


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> I think it's important that they offer a larger version. 4.7 in screen minimum. It's odd that iOS 7 is such a hog. Android 4.4 actually rolls back system requirements and works well on 2 - 3 year old devices.


Yes I think most people want a bigger screen, they should at least offer the choice. It used to be that iOS was great on old devices, but it's no longer true. I tried to turn off all the flashy stuff and it's still noticeably slow. It will encourage people to upgrade, so you have to wonder if it was intentional (it is pushed on you and no official way to go back to iOS 6)

There is still room for growth in the cars. I think iOS 7.1 is supposed to address this, using most new car screens in the same way you can AirPlay to TVs and integrating with "iOS in the car". I don't see why Android won't copy the same thing though


----------



## Ebin

andrewf said:


> An Apple laptop is objectively better than a PC that costs 1/3rd as much. The trouble is when comparing to laptop PCs around the same price point. You can get much more performance and good build quality in PCs, too. There are gaming laptops are well-built, slim and destroy macbooks in performance (plus are compatible with far more applications).


In business class laptops there's not really a price difference for similar performance and features. Our company has developers on Macs and everyone else on PCs and the hardware itself costs the same. The difference is there are some software costs associated with integrating Macs into a Windows-centric world - if we weren't so Windows-centric it'd be cost neutral.

There remains a huge difference in build quality though - the PC laptops at the same price point are still junky compared to the Macs and the battery life is still poor compared to a Mac. When you have a day full of meetings it's no fun to have to carry a charger around with you.


----------



## andrewf

I hope it's not intentional. I thought the big thing about Apple's brand is that their devices stand the test of time. Not significantly compromising usability inside of 2 years.


----------



## Ebin

andrewf said:


> I hope it's not intentional. I thought the big thing about Apple's brand is that their devices stand the test of time. Not significantly compromising usability inside of 2 years.


Agreed and I don't think it's intentional but rather a reflection of how nascent the mobile/portable world is. Their desktop/laptop operating systems are holding up fine - Mavericks runs great on my 5 year old MacBook - but there's so much processing power on those computers and so little in terms of new features to add that I would expect that.

With mobile, the leaps in processing power are comparable to the early stages of desktop computing and everyone is cramming as much functionality into these machines as they can. It appears that we're not far from the "fast enough" stage of mobile though - the A7 processor is a pretty mighty chip and should be able to stay on the curve for a few years in the way that we've seen with Apple's desktops.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> I hope it's not intentional. I thought the big thing about Apple's brand is that their devices stand the test of time.


I don't think that's really the big thing about Apple's brand. Their devices go obsolete about as quickly as Windows ones do (we have a couple of otherwise fine Lenovo laptops here that can't be upgraded to Windows 7 and are stuck running XP), if not more quickly.

I think the big thing about Apple's brand is that their products are designed with an eye to context: much more so than most tech companies, Apple focuses on the context in which its products will be used, and the realities faced by the people who'll be using them. Most of the Microsoft products I've used are designed by people who seem to think this is the only software or device in your life, and you have endless hours available with to tinker with configurations and customization, or to learn how to use 2,897 features across 47 menus. In contrast, Apple understands that people have many devices and software in their lives (phones, cameras, computers, TVs, cars, watches, clocks, microwaves, operating systems, word processors, and on and on), and most people would rather spend their time doing something other than learning how to use their device or their software. So they limit choices, simplify, and largely eliminate the need to read manuals. They haven't been completely successful, and often "limiting choices" feels too much like "Apple knows best," but by in large I think they succeed in saving their users time -- especially people who buy into the Apple ecosystem and use multiple Apple devices. Because everything works the same way and is compatible, users save even more time and can get more done because the device gets out of the way and they can focus on their work or play.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> An Apple laptop is objectively better than a PC that costs 1/3rd as much. The trouble is when comparing to laptop PCs around the same price point. You can get much more performance and good build quality in PCs, too. There are gaming laptops are well-built, slim and destroy macbooks in performance (plus are compatible with far more applications).


IMHO, Apple MacBook Air and mini iPod touch are pretty good value for money....
and tell me alternative of iPod?!


----------



## brad

gibor said:


> and tell me alternative of iPod?!


I don't think the iPod will be around a whole lot longer, except the ultra-small models for runners. Not many people use a standalone audio player anymore -- most people listen to music on their phones.


----------



## gibor365

brad said:


> I don't think the iPod will be around a whole lot longer, except the ultra-small models for runners. Not many people use a standalone audio player anymore -- most people listen to music on their phones.


Not sure, i also have cellphone, but like iPod much more, it's slim, light, much faster download data (esp. movies) etc... we're going 2-3 times per year to Cuba, Mexico, Punto Cana .... I never carry cell, only iPod


----------



## braintootired

Wow, I sold calls when it fell to 500 to keep reducing my cost basis. Looks like I should have bought some!


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## braintootired

Why is everyone so excited about the 7-1 split? It should make no difference to the company's value.


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## andrewf

I think AAPL is up because of the positive earnings surprise rather than the split. The split is not really that interesting, aside from the fact that it is a reversal of a previous commitment not to split. More interesting is the large dividend increase and expansion of the share repurchase program to get excess cash off their balance sheet. 

It's interesting that over the past 2 or 3 years, AAPL went from overvalued momentum play to fairly attractive value play from a shareholder yield perspective. I believe they are in the second best decile of shareholder yield now.


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## peterk

Well this is lovely news. Just wish I had 100 shares instead of 7. :tongue-new:


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## Toronto.gal

From a year ago, I had thought a 3:1 or 5:1 split would be coming, but that was when the stock was around $440, so I was close in terms of timing & pricing. 

The split was really not all that surprising; it's not like it did not split in the past, and I don't think there was ever a real 'commitment' not to do so.

Rather pleased with the increased div., which I did not expect.


----------



## Islenska

Wow, finally be back to even

Will sell some calls on the momentum, Apple could be spicey for awhile


----------



## GOB

Finally a significant earnings beat! Tim Cook sounded extremely bullish in the conference call and I have a lot more confidence in my optimism now. 

Some notable items for those who are interested: 

- Promise of new products ahead appealing to growth investors
- Increase in buyback program to 90B through to the end of 2015 appealing to growth investors
- 8% dividend increase with commitment to continued annual increases, appealing to income investors
- 7:1 stock split will price AAPL below $100 - possible inclusion into the Dow 30?
- iPhone 4S, a 2.5 year old device, is selling extremely well in emerging markets, demonstrating the value of the brand and ability to grow even in less affluent markets
- 85% of iPhone 4S buyers and 69% of iPhone 5c buyers are new to iPhone
- 62% of iPhone 4S buyers and 60% of iPhone 5c buyers switched from Android (put to rest the commonly accepted notion that people are flocking away from iPhones to low cost Android phones)
- China is booming (28% iPhone growth) and it's just getting started
- iPad sell-through was a 3% decline, but still dominates usage stats and enterprise sales. Office for iPad may provide a boost going forward


----------



## explorer416

One cool thing (for me) about this split is that I'll now be able to DRIP!


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Finally a significant earnings beat! Tim Cook sounded extremely bullish in the conference call and I have a lot more confidence in my optimism now.
> 
> Some notable items for those who are interested:
> 
> - Promise of new products ahead appealing to growth investors
> - Increase in buyback program to 90B through to the end of 2015 appealing to growth investors
> - 8% dividend increase with commitment to continued annual increases, appealing to income investors
> - 7:1 stock split will price AAPL below $100 - possible inclusion into the Dow 30?
> - iPhone 4S, a 2.5 year old device, is selling extremely well in emerging markets, demonstrating the value of the brand and ability to grow even in less affluent markets
> - 85% of iPhone 4S buyers and 69% of iPhone 5c buyers are new to iPhone
> - 62% of iPhone 4S buyers and 60% of iPhone 5c buyers switched from Android (put to rest the commonly accepted notion that people are flocking away from iPhones to low cost Android phones)
> - China is booming (28% iPhone growth) and it's just getting started
> - iPad sell-through was a 3% decline, but still dominates usage stats and enterprise sales. Office for iPad may provide a boost going forward


i just bought a 4S on ebay for $300 and find that it is a very capable phone and up to date ... i do think they have something up their sleeve for the latter half of 2014 but will stick with holding them through QQQ


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> - 62% of iPhone 4S buyers and 60% of iPhone 5c buyers switched from Android (put to rest the commonly accepted notion that people are flocking away from iPhones to low cost Android phones)


I wouldn't expect many people to flock away from iPhones to Android, I think the problem for Apple is more that when people are ready to buy their first smartphone or tablet, Android's going to look a lot more attractive due mainly to the lower price. The lack of a larger screen option for phones is probably hurting Apple as well, but it sounds like they're going to launch a larger-screen iPhone soon.

I'm unconvinced about Office for iPad providing much boost. It's a subscription service, and I'm not sure how many corporations will cover the cost when they're already paying for thousands of local copies of Office.


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## Ihatetaxes

Wife just got a 5S through work and I can't stand trying to type an email on it!!!!!!! I can type out a paragraph in half the time with no errors on my Blackberry. Unfortunately that is all its good for. If Apple made a phone with a BlackBerry type raised keyboard I would be a happy camper.


----------



## Toronto.gal

explorer416 said:


> One cool thing (for me) about this split is that I'll now be able to DRIP!


Tech stocks are not exactly the ideal type to DRIP IMHO. I rather take the super rich dividend and buy something way cheaper with it. :encouragement:

Even when the stock is still cheap, it's now just about $130 off from its all time high of $700+ reached in the Fall of 2012. The stock did not drop to $75 suddenly.


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> 1. Increase in *buyback *program to *90B* through to the end of 2015 appealing to growth investors
> 2. 7:1 stock split will price AAPL below $100 - *possible inclusion into the Dow 30?*
> 3. *China is booming* (28% iPhone growth) and it's just getting started


Nice to see you back GOB!

*1. *And the largest buyback in its history! Largest div./buyback/split. Not sure why the latter seemed to have 'stunned' so many, considering how bruised the stock had been, what others were doing, etc. 

*2.* 'Oddly, putting Apple in the Dow at $75 a share would give it only a weight of about 3 percent in the index. Visa Inc, the average's highest-priced stock at $208.82, has an 8.2 percent weighting, despite having less than one-third of Apple's market value. Of course, letting Apple in means another stock in the sector is likely to be replaced. That could mean one of the other tech behemoths - Microsoft Corp, Intel Corp or Cisco Systems Inc.'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/23/us-apple-dow-index-idUSBREA3M26G20140423

*3.* Was a key reason of why I did not sell my shares at $700+; and in fact, added when they dropped below $400. 

*Icahn:* Agree completely with $AAPL's increased buyback and extremely pleased with results. Believe we’ll also be happy when we see new products.

Icahn's reaction had also not been exactly shocking considering previous remarks. The former comments are more a statement while the latter more of a definite expectation.


----------



## PatInTheHat

Ihatetaxes said:


> Wife just got a 5S through work and I can't stand trying to type an email on it!!!!!!! I can type out a paragraph in half the time with no errors on my Blackberry. Unfortunately that is all its good for. If Apple made a phone with a BlackBerry type raised keyboard I would be a happy camper.


Ryan Seacrest has you covered:

http://istoreworld.com/ca_en/typo-keyboard?gclid=CPDg7rjV-b0CFclufgodl7oAYA


----------



## andrewf

T.Gal, I'm not sure I'd agree that AAPL is expensive here. They have worked off some overvaluation and some of the hypetrain from a few years ago. AAPL could reasonably be described as a value play now. Growth may or may not be difficult going forward, but all you need to justify the current price is for margins not to decline significantly. I kind of doubt that there are new formats that will be major revenue drivers in the near futures. Wearables I think will be adopted somewhat slowly (probably why AAPL has waited to put anything into the market), and in-car entertainment systems are not going to drive huge volumes/revenues.


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ I didn't say it was expensive, on the contrary. 

Were you referring to my DRIP comment? If so, I just meant that I personally [considering my low ACB, and investor should take this into account IMO], would not DRIP at this time, as the stock is up $180 in the last year alone. Also, I prefer to DRIP stocks that I'm holding for a very long-time [as in decades]. Anyway, who knows how much the stock will decline/rise in the near future. For now, I'll be happy to use the dividends for something else; even spend it.


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## andrewf

Toronto.gal said:


> Tech stocks are not exactly the ideal type to DRIP IMHO. I rather take the super rich dividend and buy something way cheaper with it. :encouragement:


Maybe I mistook what you said.


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## indexxx

Glad to see the stock back in action lately.

Just saw this on Digital Photography Review:
http://connect.dpreview.com/post/4107151306/apple-patents-3d-interactive-hologram-display-system


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## andrewf

I wouldn't read too much into Apple's patents. Tech companies, Apple included, patent many things that never make it to market.


----------



## peterk

^ Read the first comment at the bottom of that article. :tongue-new:




andrewf said:


> I wouldn't read too much into Apple's patents. Tech companies, Apple included, patent many things that never make it to market.


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## indexxx

andrewf said:


> I wouldn't read too much into Apple's patents. Tech companies, Apple included, patent many things that never make it to market.


Oh of course- just posting out interest's sake- that and I'm a photographer.


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## indexxx

Glad we're back above 600 again!


----------



## Toronto.gal

^ Thought the same, especially after the drop from $700+ to below $400; now just 11% away from that high. 

I was told by some, that I had made a mistake for not having sold at the high, but the real mistake would have been not to have increased my position after the huge drop, so I'm glad I did.

The tough question still remains, when will it be the right time to sell this stock.


----------



## Jagas

Toronto.gal said:


> ^ Thought the same, especially after the drop from $700+ to below $400; now just 11% away from that high.
> 
> I was told by some, that I had made a mistake for not having sold at the high, but the real mistake would have been not to have increased my position after the huge drop, so I'm glad I did.
> 
> The tough question still remains, when will it be the right time to sell this stock.


Please let me know when!


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## Islenska

At one point in the last year I had ~300 Apple shares in USA and Cdn accounts

Down to 140 shares currently and made small gains on the sales but more due to our Cdn $ and some low ball buying

Just not a big fan of Apple, the stock was a wreck for some time--------maybe sell at least half if you are in the black!


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## gibor365

Toronto.gal said:


> ^ Thought the same, especially after the drop from $700+ to below $400; now just 11% away from that high.
> 
> I was told by some, that I had made a mistake for not having sold at the high, but the real mistake would have been not to have increased my position after the huge drop, so I'm glad I did.
> 
> The tough question still remains, when will it be the right time to sell this stock.


you're right , I bought at 582.9 and doubled down at 428.3....
About selling it's really tough question... I sold it twice with gains and than stock rallied really strong... so I think I'll just hold it and collect dividends....


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## indexxx

I agree- I'm not selling any time soon. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next year with AAPL; of course updated products always spark interest, maybe some new ventures that we've been hearing rumours of. Very interested to see what, if anything, happens after the split. Could be a whole new ballgame if people know they can get in for <$100 a share; might prompt a lot of interest as the psychological perception is that it's now affordable to buy a bushel of Apples.


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## james4beach

These things are total gambles so who knows, but I suspect AAPL probably peaked around the time it began payout out a dividend.


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## Toronto.gal

Islenska said:


> *1.* Down to 140 shares currently and *made small gains on the sales*
> *2.* Just not a big fan of Apple, the stock was a wreck for some time--------maybe sell at least half if you are in the black!


*1.* So that means that you didn't own for very long? You'll have 980 sh on June 9th, and $1,842.24 in annual dividends at current rate, so not bad! 

I initially bought over 4 years ago and was up around 250% at the high of $700+, but had a higher exit strategy [not really 4 greedy reasons], so I didn't sell. With all the cash the company had/has + the potential catalysts, I felt confident holding & eventually averaged up, even though it was *not* something I had wanted to do when the shares began dropping, so I waited a while b4 I did eventually increase my ACB by 26% [from less than $200 to about $251]. Now I have to rethink my initial exit plans, but for now, I'm happy to receive the richest div. in the sector, which I'll definitely notDRIP, not even after the split. I think the split will be favourable as far as broadening investor interest/space. 

*2.* If by 'wreck' you mean the decline since Sept.2012, I wouldn't call it that, not after taking into account the stellar rise. I own a single AAPL product, which had been a b'day gift.  Not a fan of any tech products, just the stocks!

Yes *J4B*, we know that every stock in your opinion is a 'total gamble', but the fact of the matter is that AAPL is hardly a cigar-butt type stock. 

*Q2 - 2014 results:* $45.6 billion and quarterly net profit of $10.2 billion, or $11.62 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $43.6 billion and net profit of $9.5 billion, or $10.09 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 39.3 percent compared to 37.5 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 66 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

*Q3 - 2014 guidance:* 

- revenue between $36 billion and $38 billion
- gross margin between 37 percent and 38 percent
- operating expenses between $4.4 billion and $4.5 billion
- other income/(expense) of $200 million
- tax rate of 26.1 percent

It's hard to believe that the $3B purchase of Beats Electronics has been the most expensive for AAPL, especially considering the billions other much smaller companies have been paying for acquisitions.

*Apple adds more swagger with $3B Beats acquisition*
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-adds-more-swagger-3b-043547346.html


----------



## doctrine

Apple's market price may have peaked in 2012 but I bet the book value per share is up in the last two years. which means anyone who owns 'x' shares now has a larger piece of the company (less shares outstanding, higher book value) than the same amount of shares two years ago.


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## GOB

Management seems extremely confident in the upcoming product pipeline. iPhone 6 is going to be huge and something big is coming (iWatch and/or home automation). This stock will always be volatile but in the long run it is going higher. Earnings growth, dividends and buyback...it's almost a no brainer. The last two years have not been easy, but I've held and added to my positions and my account is now at all time highs. I remain confident we will be much higher a few years from now.


----------



## kcowan

It is a rare momentum play as well as a multiyear value stock. Serves two kinds of investors. 

I am an old Windows user but at last count had only one Windows device. iPhones and iPads seem to be taking over. Lusting over the "Air" products....


----------



## indexxx

kcowan said:


> It is a rare momentum play as well as a multiyear value stock. Serves two kinds of investors.
> 
> I am an old Windows user but at last count had only one Windows device. iPhones and iPads seem to be taking over. Lusting over the "Air" products....


I have to admit to some measure of what us guitar players and photographers call G.A.S.- Gear Acquisition Syndrome. It plays a big part in Apple's success- always wanting the next new thing even if you don't really need it. My four-year-old Macbook Pro is perfectly functional and serves me extremely well- yet like kcowan I am 'lusting over the Air products'. I had a chance to use an Air last week and was amazed at its weight and speed. But first things first... I need a new camera! (And a specific lens, and a guitar amp that I've had my eye on...)


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> Management seems extremely confident in the upcoming product pipeline. iPhone 6 is going to be huge and something big is coming (iWatch and/or home automation).


Some of this stuff was announced today -- e.g., simpler integration with home automation systems. For example you'll be able to tell your phone "time for bed" and it'll lock the doors, turn out the lights, turn down the thermostat, etc.

The HealthKit, which integrates fitness and health data, is supposed to pave the way for the iWatch. I'm still skeptical about the iWatch, but then I was skeptical about the iPod and iPad when they first came out. ;-)


----------



## SkyFall

so lets see how it goes now


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> Some of this stuff was announced today -- e.g., simpler integration with home automation systems. For example you'll be able to tell your phone "time for bed" and it'll lock the doors, turn out the lights, turn down the thermostat, etc.
> 
> The HealthKit, which integrates fitness and health data, is supposed to pave the way for the iWatch. I'm still skeptical about the iWatch, but then I was skeptical about the iPod and iPad when they first came out. ;-)


i'm skeptical of all 3 ... health kit is really tracking silly stuff like calories lost and fitness records ... home kit is somewhat better

the iwatch may appeal to a percentage of people but all 3 are in the middle of a phase we will be in for a long time, namely there simply is not enough intelligence in the technology to support more intelligence ... the infrastructure and the interest and dollars are not in place ... 

none of these will anything remotely like mass appeal for a long time to come ... 

it shows that apple is having trouble coming up with a new category, these are refinements that appeal to a subset of their customers


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> i'm skeptical of all 3 ... health kit is really tracking silly stuff like calories lost and fitness records ... home kit is somewhat better


In fairness, HealthKit is a bit more than just that: http://www.macworld.com/article/231...tegrate-health-and-fitness-data-in-ios-8.html


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> In fairness, HealthKit is a bit more than just that: http://www.macworld.com/article/231...tegrate-health-and-fitness-data-in-ios-8.html


 "bit" being the operative word ... you can check your blood pressure so easily and in so many places

the rest is largely a matter of noting your diet, weight and activity and then _inputing_ that data, most people simply don't do this on a regular basis, it's too much work

for health-kit to really go _big_, it needs to be a) completely automatic b) much more data rich and c) accurate and d) affordable

i don't think it hits any of those marks yet by any means


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> "bit" being the operative word ... you can check your blood pressure so easily and in so many places
> 
> the rest is largely a matter of noting your diet, weight and activity and then _inputing_ that data, most people simply don't do this on a regular basis, it's too much work
> 
> for health-kit to really go _big_, it needs to be a) completely automatic b) much more data rich and c) accurate and d) affordable


Actually it's a lot closer to automatic than you may think. Apple said it would synchronize with most of the popular activity trackers on the market, such as Fitbit -- Fitbit is an electronic pedometer/accelerometer/altimeter that tracks your activity over the day, counts steps, floors climbed, and can tell if you're walking or running and adjusts calorie estimates accordingly. All you need to do is clip it on and it synchronizes automatically with your computer whenever you're within Bluetooth range. You just have to remember not to put it through the laundry like I did. ;-)

WiFi weight scales are also popular these days -- you stand on the scale and it sends your weight to the computer (or your iWatch once that's available).


----------



## Synergy

fatcat said:


> most people simply don't do this on a regular basis, it's too much work
> 
> for health-kit to really go _big_, it needs to be a) completely automatic b) much more data rich and c) accurate and d) affordable


I'd have to agree - especially with a) completely automatic. Show me accurate real time blood chemistry, HR, BP, sleep waves, etc. and I'd be interested. Mr. Smith, it's time for your snack, your glucose levels are dropping! Mr. Smith your BP and cortisol levels are rising, it's time to practice some deep breathing! Mr. Smith you missed out on REM sleep last night, please try and go to bed a little earlier. Until the data becomes automatic I think it will be more of a fad. People will simply get tired of inputing, synching, etc. It's good that they're trying to put things together in an easy to use package, but the technology has a ways to go IMO.


----------



## brad

Synergy said:


> I'd have to agree - especially with a) completely automatic. Show me accurate real time blood chemistry, HR, BP, sleep waves, etc. and I'd be interested.


Hopefully nobody wants to actually run their lives based on that level of detailed data; humans have managed to survive pretty well so far by listening to our bodies. 

Fitbit does actually monitor your sleep quality (based on tossing and turning, getting up out of bed, etc.), and does a reasonably good job of it.

There really isn't any inputting involved in any of this, unless you want to track your diet. If you eat only processed/packaged foods, even that's pretty easy because you can simply hold up the product bar code to your phone's camera; apps like My Fitness Pal have been doing this for a while. But most of what I eat isn't in the database and doesn't have a bar code, so entering calories is laborious. I don't track my diet.


----------



## Synergy

brad said:


> Hopefully nobody wants to actually run their lives based on that level of detailed data; humans have managed to survive pretty well so far by listening to our bodies.


Agreed, it would be a pretty sad world. However, I'd argue that humans aren't doing pretty well by listening to their bodies. They may be "surviving" courtesy of advancing medical technology but their quality of life is pretty poor IMO. Look at the ever increasing rate of obesity, that is a prime example. People uable to listen to mother nature's cues: hunger & satiety. Just look at all the medications that are keeping people alive, allowing individuals to cope in society, etc. Blood pressure meds, cholesterol pills, sleeping pills, anti-depressants, etc. Additionally, cardiovascular disease, Type II diabetes, etc. are now occuring in yonger individuals. Three quarters of the population can't function without 1-2 cups of java in their systems every day - dosen't seem healthy to me to be addicted to something even if it's so called "natural". Tired = body trying to tell you to rest, not go out and get another cup of coffee.

The technology doesn't appear to be ground breaking and unless it's really user friendly I can't see it catching on in a big way. However, it's a trendy market and there's money to be made so perhaps Apple will be able to capitalize on it.


----------



## brad

Synergy said:


> Agreed, it would be a pretty sad world. However, I'd argue that humans aren't doing pretty well by listening to their bodies.


That's very true, but I just think some of these factors (blood glucose level, blood pressure, heart rate, etc.) change so frequently and for so many reasons that you'd end up trying to "play the meter," raising your anxiety and stress levels in the process. Lots of nutritionists and doctors advise dieters to not weigh themselves more than once a week for similar reasons: weight fluctuates throughout the day, and from day to day, for a variety of reasons. Sometimes less data, or data sampled less frequently, is better than all the data all the time.


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> That's very true, but I just think some of these factors (blood glucose level, blood pressure, heart rate, etc.) change so frequently and for so many reasons that you'd end up trying to "play the meter," raising your anxiety and stress levels in the process. Lots of nutritionists and doctors advise dieters to not weigh themselves more than once a week for similar reasons: weight fluctuates throughout the day, and from day to day, for a variety of reasons. Sometimes less data, or data sampled less frequently, is better than all the data all the time.


i think you actually make a good argument against the value of these apps, i think they will get some traction with a very small, hard-core "life-logger" but i just don't think most people really want or feel they need this kind of data (though perhaps apple can stoke their sense of need)


----------



## Synergy

brad said:


> That's very true, but I just think some of these factors (blood glucose level, blood pressure, heart rate, etc.) change so frequently and for so many reasons that you'd end up trying to "play the meter," raising your anxiety and stress levels in the process. Lots of nutritionists and doctors advise dieters to not weigh themselves more than once a week for similar reasons: weight fluctuates throughout the day, and from day to day, for a variety of reasons. Sometimes less data, or data sampled less frequently, is better than all the data all the time.


Personally I'm not a fan of these types of health / fitness applications but if the software was sophisticated enough it could easily weed out non-important day to day fluctuation and pick out the long term important trends that could ultimately be passed on to the user as feedback at some point. The possibilities are endless. However in certain instances, daily swings in vital signs can be pretty significant and may want to be passed on to the user. Take white coat syndrome. Someone with so called normal blood pressure that swings dramatically throughout the day. 24 hour monitors are often given to these individuals suspected to suffer from such a condition. Treatment may help reduce the incidence of stroke.

The real problem with weight scales is that they don't tell you anything about your body composition. At least the traditional non-bioelectrical impedance scale don't. Hence the "toss out your weight scale" pitch we've heard so many times over the past 15-20yrs. As one ages they could be maintaining their body weight thinking they're doing a good job while in reality they're getting relatively fatter - losing muscle and bone density and gaining fat. Additionally, a lot of people use exercise to help them lose "weight" which ultimately builds muscle and bone. They get frustrated too easily and give up if they focus sorely on a weight scale. In my opinion it would be best to use a variety of measures (scale, tape measure, impedance analysis, etc.) and only measure yourself every 2-3 month.

A comprehensive medical app designed for athletes, certain medical conditions, etc. could however prove to be quite useful.


----------



## indexxx

I doubt it's something that I personally would make extensive use of- however, seeing that this is a financial forum, I'm interested in what the public-at-"large" does; meaning, I think of all the overweight or out of shape people who obsess about calories, buy gym memberships they never use, spend $1,000 on a piece of home gym equipment that ends up being a t-shirt rack, etc. If Apple monetizes their health ideas, who knows how it will play out for the stock?


----------



## brad

indexxx said:


> I doubt it's something that I personally would make extensive use of- however, seeing that this is a financial forum, I'm interested in what the public-at-"large" does; meaning, I think of all the overweight or out of shape people who obsess about calories, buy gym memberships they never use, spend $1,000 on a piece of home gym equipment that ends up being a t-shirt rack, etc. If Apple monetizes their health ideas, who knows how it will play out for the stock?


I don't think the market is primarily overweight/out of shape people -- sure it's them but it's also fitness and health fanatics. Apple is reportedly planning production of 3-5 million units per month for its health-based iWatch (see http://www.techhive.com/article/236...d-wearable-coming-in-october-sources-say.html). 

Activity trackers are a fast-growing market (see http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/...-wristbands-popularity-will-continue-to-grow/ and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/23/fitbit_n_3102522.html). What's making them successful is precisely their convenience: there's no manual data entry, everything is monitored automatically and sent to your computer wirelessly.

If you only have and use one of these trackers, I'm not sure how Apple's Health Kit does much to help. But if you use several or could see the utiility of having several, Health Kit basically brings all the data into one place instead of you having to go to several different websites or devices to see everything.

I used a Fitbit for most of last year (March until December, when I accidentally put it through the laundry -- it's water resistant, but going through the wash usually kills it). It really is a well-thought out system. The web-based dashboard is excellent, everything works, you get little badges for achievments, and it's easy to keep track of your progress toward goals (typically taking 10,000 steps per day, which is challenging when you have a desk job). I loved it; it was life-changing in many ways. I think this is one of those things like the iPod or iPad: seen from a distance you think "why would anyone ever spend money on something like that," but when you have a chance to start using one yourself it suddenly makes sense and you realize how useful it is.


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> Activity trackers are a fast-growing market (see http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/...-wristbands-popularity-will-continue-to-grow/ and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/23/fitbit_n_3102522.html). What's making them successful is precisely their convenience: there's no manual data entry, everything is monitored automatically and sent to your computer wirelessly.


this story on business insider actually says that sales may even have peaked at a fraction of the number of people who use smartphones
sales for the past year from march-2013 to april-2014 were just 3.3 million units (versus an ownership of something like 160 million smartphones in the usa)

http://www.businessinsider.com/33-m...s-were-sold-in-the-us-in-the-past-year-2014-5



> BI Intelligence believes fitness bands and activity trackers will be the devices that bring wearables to the mainstream market. *But thus far sales of these devices have been disappointing, and this poses some concern for the category as a whole.*
> 
> 
> At BI Intelligence, we've been tracking the wearable computing market, following how the fitness tracker, smart watch, and other wearables ecosystems are evolving. *If fitness trackers can't catch on among mainstream consumers, smart watches and other wearable computing devices will also struggle.*
> 
> *
> Fitness band makers may be losing interest in the category as well.* As BI Intelligence previously reported, *Nike laid off a significant portion of its FuelBand team*, signaling the move away from hardware and into software.


if nike, one of the trailblazers and clear leaders in the field is laying people off in this division, you have to wonder

as i say, this has appeal to a small, hardcore group but nothing like mass appeal ... people who work at apple would be the target market, affluent busy young people who sit at desks all day, but they are hardly a sample of the north american demographic

unless apple's iwatch has a trick up it's sleeve (i.e. a whole new category) i think it will have limited appeal, most people i know feel like they are drowning in technology that they can barely control as it is


----------



## andrewf

It's hard to imagine it being as ubiquitous as smartphones or tablets. It might be a nice side business for Apple, but it's not going to measure up to the earning power of iPhone or iPad.


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> It's hard to imagine it being as ubiquitous as smartphones or tablets. It might be a nice side business for Apple, but it's not going to measure up to the earning power of iPhone or iPad.


right and along with homekit and health kit, the iwatch shows that apple is just trying to expand in small ways on all fronts ... i dont think there is a new category lurking in their magic box

i think that for apple and google and microsoft to a lesser degree, its about tying together as many useful services under one label as possible and hope that builds customer loyalty and retention


----------



## indexxx

Related article here:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2014/06/09/best-plays-on-the-wearables-revolution/


----------



## GOB

Synergy said:


> I'd have to agree - especially with a) completely automatic. Show me accurate real time blood chemistry, HR, BP, sleep waves, etc. and I'd be interested. Mr. Smith, it's time for your snack, your glucose levels are dropping! Mr. Smith your BP and cortisol levels are rising, it's time to practice some deep breathing! Mr. Smith you missed out on REM sleep last night, please try and go to bed a little earlier. Until the data becomes automatic I think it will be more of a fad. People will simply get tired of inputing, synching, etc. It's good that they're trying to put things together in an easy to use package, but the technology has a ways to go IMO.


Apple's whole mantra is ease of use and being able to execute remarkable things with very little effort. Don't be surprised if this kind of stuff happens sooner rather than later when tied in with their upcoming new products. Think about having a "Health ID" with all your past doctor visits, X-rays etc. that is stored in your phone or in the cloud and secured with Touch ID. Then simply authenticate to allow any doctor you visit access to all your history. Game changer, and possibly not far off. They are partnering with major players in the health industry - it's not just for calorie tracking...


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> this story on business insider actually says that sales may even have peaked at a fraction of the number of people who use smartphones
> sales for the past year from march-2013 to april-2014 were just 3.3 million units (versus an ownership of something like 160 million smartphones in the usa)
> 
> http://www.businessinsider.com/33-m...s-were-sold-in-the-us-in-the-past-year-2014-5
> 
> 
> 
> if nike, one of the trailblazers and clear leaders in the field is laying people off in this division, you have to wonder
> 
> as i say, this has appeal to a small, hardcore group but nothing like mass appeal ... people who work at apple would be the target market, affluent busy young people who sit at desks all day, but they are hardly a sample of the north american demographic
> 
> unless apple's iwatch has a trick up it's sleeve (i.e. a whole new category) i think it will have limited appeal, most people i know feel like they are drowning in technology that they can barely control as it is


This is kind of like saying that Apple should not have entered the tablet market because sales were weak and it was not very popular. Apple has the ability to take an existing market, big or small, and make it huge. We've seen with iPod, iPhone and iPad. 

Nike's layoff is interesting. Many are speculating that they have some idea of what Apple is about to put out and are choosing to partner with them on the data side (along with their apparel) instead of keeping a hardware competitor around that will likely be rendered obsolete. Tim Cook is on Nike's board of directors - the two companies have a solid working relationship.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> This is kind of like saying that Apple should not have entered the tablet market because sales were weak and it was not very popular. Apple has the ability to take an existing market, big or small, and make it huge. We've seen with iPod, iPhone and iPad.
> 
> Nike's layoff is interesting. Many are speculating that they have some idea of what Apple is about to put out and are choosing to partner with them on the data side (along with their apparel) instead of keeping a hardware competitor around that will likely be rendered obsolete. Tim Cook is on Nike's board of directors - the two companies have a solid working relationship.


good points ... what might be different here is that many people had been trying to get the tablet right for a long time and apple did it ... i suppose the watch could fall into the same category but i just don't see the demand for watches reaching even a small percentage of those who can find a good use for tablets (think games and email and messaging though messaging is possible in a small way on a watch)

we are beginning to reach saturation in technology, many of us are now managing so many devices that it starts to become a question of not what can i add to the mix but what can i take away ?

but then apple has always been very good at simplifying things so perhaps they can hit another one out of the park, i wouldn't bet against them but i am skeptical on this on this one

i own an ipad, iphone and ipod touch ... why can't i just synch all the apps on all three devices (aside for incompatible ones) so i have the same apps in the same places on the screen and all are updated with the same password ? ... i can't come close to doing that, this is getting to be a problem for apple and all the rest


----------



## MrMatt

fatcat said:


> if nike, one of the trailblazers and clear leaders in the field is laying people off in this division, you have to wonder


Personally I'm not a fan of Nike, they're a good brand, and they don't put out junk under their name.

I think the real leaders are Polar & Garmin, and have been at this game for a while. 
Phones with fitness apps are good, but there are reasons why people with the latest and greatest phones are still shelling out for $200-500 fitness watches.


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> good points ... what might be different here is that many people had been trying to get the tablet right for a long time and apple did it ... i suppose the watch could fall into the same category but i just don't see the demand for watches reaching even a small percentage of those who can find a good use for tablets (think games and email and messaging though messaging is possible in a small way on a watch)
> 
> we are beginning to reach saturation in technology, many of us are now managing so many devices that it starts to become a question of not what can i add to the mix but what can i take away ?
> 
> but then apple has always been very good at simplifying things so perhaps they can hit another one out of the park, i wouldn't bet against them but i am skeptical on this on this one
> 
> i own an ipad, iphone and ipod touch ... why can't i just synch all the apps on all three devices (aside for incompatible ones) so i have the same apps in the same places on the screen and all are updated with the same password ? ... i can't come close to doing that, this is getting to be a problem for apple and all the rest


Games, email, messaging were all possible on smartphones and computers. The tablet just does some things better and more easily. I actually underestimated the popularity of tablets when the iPad launched. 

The iWatch potentially will do things that no other consumer-grade device can do, not just act as a mere alternative to existing devices. To me, when those things are fitness and health and opportunity for more efficient and effective health care, I'd say it has potential to appeal to a huge target market - pretty much everyone with a smartphone. 

Adoption may be modest at first like the iPhone was, as the first gen product may be somewhat stripped down and not all the medical gadgetry will be able to be implemented. But in the coming years, with battery life and feature improvement, I see a smart health device being essential for anyone who cares about their health. As always, there will be copycats and competitors, and Apple won't take the entire market, but they are positioning themselves to be the leader of a new market as they usually are.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Games, email, messaging were all possible on smartphones and computers. The tablet just does some things better and more easily. I actually underestimated the popularity of tablets when the iPad launched.


I have an iPad (with Retina, is that a 3rd Gen?)
It's great for what it does, but it's quite limited for getting any real work done.

I'm seriously thinking of upgrading to a Surface type convertible to get the improved functionality. I've read Asus T3000 is really nice.


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## Synergy

Tablets are useless for me, it will soon be on kijiji! Way too many devices for my liking - PC, smartphone, tablet, laptop, etc. My plan is to limit myself to one smartphone and one convertible laptop / tablet for home use and one PC for work. Watches, glasses, headbands, bracelets, etc. don't interest me, I'm looking for less gadgets not more.



GOB said:


> I see a smart health device being essential for anyone who cares about their health.


I'm not sure if there's enough people who truly "care" about their health enough to put a smart health device on everyone's wrist. With the exception of the hardcore tech exercise enthusiasts, competitive athletes, and the medical industry I'm not sure sure if these health applications will really take off in a big way for the general population. The average individual who truly cares about their health (exercises regularly, eats well, gets enough R&R, etc.) really doesn't need a health app, their body is built with one of the best applications you can get - homeostasis.


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## brad

Synergy said:


> I'm not sure if there's enough people who truly "care" about their health enough to put a smart health device on everyone's wrist. With the exception of the hardcore tech exercise enthusiasts, competitive athletes, and the medical industry I'm not sure sure if these health applications will really take off in a big way for the general population. The average individual who truly cares about their health (exercises regularly, eats well, gets enough R&R, etc.) really doesn't need a health app, their body is built with one of the best applications you can get - homeostasis.


There is an obesity epidemic right now in the United States, and to a lesser extent Canada. Lots of health professionals are advising people to get more exercise and to monitor it. There's also a huge increase coming in the over-65 population, many of whom are increasingly health conscious. These and other factors are likely to contribute to a boom in the popularity of smart health devices in the coming years.


----------



## Synergy

brad said:


> There is an obesity epidemic right now in the United States, and to a lesser extent Canada. Lots of health professionals are advising people to get more exercise and to monitor it. There's also a huge increase coming in the over-65 population, many of whom are increasingly health conscious. These and other factors are likely to contribute to a boom in the popularity of smart health devices in the coming years.


Nothing seems to have helped so far, so here's to hoping these apps can be part of the solution.


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## MrMatt

GOB said:


> I see a smart health device being essential for anyone who cares about their health.


What is a "smart health device", and what does it "do" that helps make you healthier?

I will track runs with my gps phone and heart rate monitor, but that is more for refining/targetting a specific objective which is preparing for an upcoming race. (HRM to not over-exert, phone because it's nice to know how far I ran)
If I didn't have the devices, I'd use the other methods, ie try to sing a song to watch exertion, and freemaptools online to check my route distance.

Buying good shoes is pretty much all you need to get more active, you don't even need that if you're willing to just do pushups and jumping jacks in your bare feet. There are a pile of 7 minute workout apps, you don't need another device.

I really fail to see how the device will actually do anything for the "obesity epidemic". It isn't like you can exercise away fat anyway. 

I ran 12k, which is 1000 calories (a Big Mac Combo) or a bit less than 1/3 of a pound of body fat, afterwards I quickly consumed about 200 cal in post run snacks/beverages, reducing my loss to about 1/4lb of body fat, and it's taken me a while to get to this point.

Most people simply aren't willing or even capable of putting in that type of effort, several times a week to actually shed weight, no app or encouragement or cajoling is going to change that.


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## Synergy

MrMatt said:


> Most people simply aren't willing or even capable of putting in that type of effort, several times a week to actually shed weight, no app or encouragement or cajoling is going to change that.


I'd have to agree, and sadly it really doesn't take all that much effort, time, etc. to be somewhat "healthy".


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## brad

MrMatt said:


> Most people simply aren't willing or even capable of putting in that type of effort, several times a week to actually shed weight, no app or encouragement or cajoling is going to change that.


When you actually use one of these things, you start to realize how useful and motivating it is.

I wanted to lose a little weight last year (about 10 pounds), so I bought a Fitbit. I lost 15 pounds over 6 months without changing my diet, the only change was wearing the Fitbit. You set a goal (typically 10,000 steps per day) and it tracks your progress toward the goal; you can see at any time how you're progressing by glancing at the dashboard on your computer (Fitbit has a really well done website; it syncs to your device wirelessly through Bluetooth so it updates anytime you're near your computer). You get badges and emails whenever you hit your goals or reach milestones. It's very motivating; if you're competitive you can also join virtual groups and compete against each other.

While it's true that exercise alone isn't enough, people who exercise regularly usually are more successful at losing weight and keeping it off; there are plenty of studies to support that.


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## Just a Guy

What about a market for monitoring the elderly...an app that monitors movement or looks for signs of heart attack/stroke and alerts people. This would allow people to stay in their homes longer. 

Time to short first alert.


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## Spudd

I agree that the Fitbit can be very motivating. It motivates me for sure, as well as my husband, his brother, my mom, and a couple of my co-workers. (Yes, I know a lot of people with Fitbits. They should put me on the payroll since most of these were my influence either directly or indirectly.) However, I have a couple of people on my friends list who either stopped wearing it or, although they wear it, it does not seem to motivate them. 

I also have an app called TactioHealth where I can track my weight, blood pressure, cholesterol measurements, blood sugar, etc. It provides an overall dashboard to show you how your health is as a whole, and in places where you don't meet the ideal, it provides tips on improvements you can make. I find it very useful and motivating. 

So yes, I believe there is a market especially as the population ages.


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## Synergy

Just a Guy said:


> What about a market for monitoring the elderly...an app that monitors movement or looks for signs of heart attack/stroke and alerts people. This would allow people to stay in their homes longer.
> 
> Time to short first alert.


Not necessarily a short, security and medical alert companies (lifeline, etc.) could become the hub / data processing centers. They could alert appropriate medical professional or family member for assistance and someday they may even be able to administer certain types of treatments remotely. Just imaging being able to have your heart re-started remotely - pretty cool (ctrl-alt-delete). Remote monitoring technology is already somewhate available - wireless medical devices.


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## MrMatt

brad said:


> When you actually use one of these things, you start to realize how useful and motivating it is.
> 
> I wanted to lose a little weight last year (about 10 pounds), so I bought a Fitbit. I lost 15 pounds over 6 months without changing my diet, the only change was wearing the Fitbit. You set a goal (typically 10,000 steps per day) and it tracks your progress toward the goal; you can see at any time how you're progressing by glancing at the dashboard on your computer (Fitbit has a really well done website; it syncs to your device wirelessly through Bluetooth so it updates anytime you're near your computer). You get badges and emails whenever you hit your goals or reach milestones. It's very motivating; if you're competitive you can also join virtual groups and compete against each other.
> 
> While it's true that exercise alone isn't enough, people who exercise regularly usually are more successful at losing weight and keeping it off; there are plenty of studies to support that.


That's 300cal/day. Which means you must have boosted your physical activity by about 3k or 2 miles of additional walking every day. That's a pretty significant increase in physical activity. 

If you just want 10k steps a day you could buy a pedometer, $0.99 shipped on ebay.

If the app/gizmo provides the motivational trick that works, good. But I really don't see it making significant improvements.


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## fatcat

you guys have a much higher opinion of the average person (and the subset, the average tech user) ... if people cared about their health as much as you say they should, there wouldn't be long lines at mcdonalds for lunch everyday

i think that a small, dedicated group will love the iwatch and use it like crazy but the masses will take a pass

that may change in the future, but right now we are in the valley between the introduction of good technology and the point where it is so smart that it does all this for us automatically

so, now i am supposed to sync my iphone, computer, smart-watch, thermostat, refrigerator, ipod and ipad ? ... so they can all be smart ?

the huge achilles heel in this system is that only one of them has to be out of sync and the whole system breaks down and requires constant maintenance

this needs to all happen automatically, and someday it will, but not for a while, a long while i think

apple is not gaining enough traction to be the universal system it pretends to be, nor is google


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## MrMatt

fatcat said:


> you guys have a much higher opinion of the average person (and the subset, the average tech user) ... if people cared about their health as much as you say they should, there wouldn't be long lines at mcdonalds for lunch everyday
> 
> so, now i am supposed to sync my iphone, computer, smart-watch, thermostat, refrigerator, ipod and ipad ? ... so they can all be smart ?
> the huge achilles heel in this system is that only one of them has to be out of sync and the whole system breaks down and requires constant maintenance
> this needs to all happen automatically, and someday it will, but not for a while, a long while i think
> 
> apple is not gaining enough traction to be the universal system it pretends to be, nor is google



McDonalds isn't actually that unhealthy, I'm not long MCD, but I'm considering adding such a position.

The syncing problem for most applications is solvable, and in most cases has been solved. 

That being said, I don't see these apps having anything more than a minor impact.


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## Synergy

MrMatt said:


> McDonalds isn't actually that unhealthy, I'm not long MCD, but I'm considering adding such a position.
> 
> The syncing problem for most applications is solvable, and in most cases has been solved.
> 
> That being said, I don't see these apps having anything more than a minor impact.


For the most part, restaurants arn't the real problem. You can eat somewhat healthy or somewhat unhealthy just about anywhere. Additionally, overeating so called "healthy food" can create just as many health problems - obesity, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, etc. Consumers are the real problem. Sure it doesn't help that Chipotle's wraps are often $1200+ calories, but it's the consumer that loads them up with high calorie extra's and then goes home and decides to eat a 1/2 tub of ice cream while watching tv. People know better but just don't have the will power. I've never read the following book, but the title seems to makes a lot of sense: Change Your Brain, Change Your Body: Use Your Brain to Get and Keep the Body You Have Always Wanted.

Happy to hold MCD - a real esate empire. They have made strides just like everyone else to try and make their menu's a little healthier, more transparent, etc.

One thing to keep in mind about health / fitness apps is that the calories that are so called "burned" during the exercise period become less and less important as you become fitter / healthier. Your metabolism will eventually start working for you and stop working against you. Additionally, these apps don't take into account your metabolism post exercise - which varies somewhat depending on the type of exercise performed. Your body in essence has to re-pay the cost of exercise - replenish fuel stores, restore oxygen levels, tissue repair, etc. Caloric requirements can be significantly altered for up to a 24 hours period post exercise. A truly "smart" application would need to take these types of things into consideration.


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## andrewf

On the bright side, none of this stuff has to actually work to be a commercial success. All that is required is that people hope they will work when they make the purchase decision. This is what drives the multi-billion fitness and diet industry.


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## fatcat

MrMatt said:


> McDonalds isn't actually that unhealthy, I'm not long MCD, but I'm considering adding such a position.
> 
> The syncing problem for most applications is solvable, and in most cases has been solved.
> 
> That being said, I don't see these apps having anything more than a minor impact.


MCD is on my list of buys, i can't quite make up my mind ... yes, certainly, eating at mickey dee's once a week won't hurt you ... they have good coffee .. i have a burger occasionally 

i just don't think the number of people that actually want to monitor their health with a smartwatch is a very big group ...


----------



## MrMatt

fatcat said:


> MCD is on my list of buys, i can't quite make up my mind ... yes, certainly, eating at mickey dee's once a week won't hurt you ... they have good coffee .. i have a burger occasionally
> 
> i just don't think the number of people that actually want to monitor their health with a smartwatch is a very big group ...


Go to sparkpeople, it's pretty comprehensive if you use all the options, and it's quite busy too.

As far as activity monitoring, the Garmin & Polar products sell well, and there are a lot of competitors trying to get into that space.
Not to mention the hundreds of fitness apps.

I think it might be a sellable product, but in my opinion, it's a gimmick with negligible lasting impact.


----------



## GOB

Most of you are not getting the point. Again, the iWatch is not going be a niche product target fitness buffs alone. In fact, if what I've been reading is true it will also be immensely valuable to people who are not healthy, and have a variety of ailments requiring monitoring and treatment. 

I'll say it one more time - Apple is not creating partnerships with the Mayo Clinic and a number of other large players in the health industry so that they can build a pedometer and calorie tracker. Nor are they getting input from the FDA for such a device. Think harder.

http://www.quora.com/What-do-doctors-think-of-HealthKit


----------



## jtc

GOB said:


> Most of you are not getting the point.


Sounds like they are attempting to produce a Microsoft HealthVault clone.

Did I get the point? =-/


----------



## brad

jtc said:


> Sounds like they are attempting to produce a Microsoft HealthVault clone.
> 
> Did I get the point? =-/


Not even close, but I think the answer is "let's check back in a year and see how all these predictions and speculations and opinions panned out." ;-)


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Most of you are not getting the point. Again, the iWatch is not going be a niche product target fitness buffs alone. In fact, if what I've been reading is true it will also be immensely valuable to people who are not healthy, and have a variety of ailments requiring monitoring and treatment.
> 
> I'll say it one more time - Apple is not creating partnerships with the Mayo Clinic and a number of other large players in the health industry so that they can build a pedometer and calorie tracker. Nor are they getting input from the FDA for such a device. Think harder.
> 
> http://www.quora.com/What-do-doctors-think-of-HealthKit


from the guys review of healthkit: *"A cursory look at their website (Apple - iOS 8 - Health) would seem to support the view that Healthkit is targeted at those obsessed with the "quantified self" movement:* ... precisely

and then he gets excited about carrying his entire medical history around on his phone ? ... oh great, why not every purchase you ever made and your diary too ? (and then someone can steal your phone)

it may well have appeal to a small hardcore group and it may sell OK but i just don't see the masses adopting this stuff until the software and the machines do it for them pretty much automatically

it's a niche product and not much more


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## kcowan

fatcat said:


> it's a niche product and not much more


The question for me is: Is the niche one that already has an iPhone? If not, then this might be good to drive product sales. 1% of the US is 3 million. Pretty good niche!


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## indexxx

Never underestimate the average person's ability to obsess about themselves- particularly when it comes to health and fitness.


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## GOB

fatcat said:


> from the guys review of healthkit: *"A cursory look at their website (Apple - iOS 8 - Health) would seem to support the view that Healthkit is targeted at those obsessed with the "quantified self" movement:* ... precisely
> 
> and then he gets excited about carrying his entire medical history around on his phone ? ... oh great, why not every purchase you ever made and your diary too ? (and then someone can steal your phone)
> 
> it may well have appeal to a small hardcore group and it may sell OK but i just don't see the masses adopting this stuff until the software and the machines do it for them pretty much automatically
> 
> it's a niche product and not much more


You do understand the meaning of cursory, right? It was his initial impression, but certainly not his final one. 

I'd rather have instant access to my medical records, protected by Touch ID than rely on inefficient and archaic hospital communications to send (often time-sensitive) information from doctor to doctor or hospital to hospital. I'm not important enough for someone to want to steal my health records, nor would I really care if it happened. Not that it's easy to do...the way records are currently stored is far less secure anyway.


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## andrewf

Adoption might be limited, due to typically severe regulations regarding medical records and privacy.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> You do understand the meaning of cursory, right? It was his initial impression, but certainly not his final one.
> 
> I'd rather have instant access to my medical records, protected by Touch ID than rely on inefficient and archaic hospital communications to send (often time-sensitive) information from doctor to doctor or hospital to hospital. I'm not important enough for someone to want to steal my health records, nor would I really care if it happened. Not that it's easy to do...the way records are currently stored is far less secure anyway.


 i agree in a sense, we should all control our own data and then be able to hand out time sensitive passwords to specific parts of the file to whomever we please ... 

i suppose i might consider carrying it on my phone if there were a universal language for reading it so it could be useful and if it was protected by strong encryption

but i would prefer to have it on a server somewhere controlled by me and encrypted and i could then grant access to various pieces of it as necessary

apple is just taking baby steps toward this which is fine but a long way from mass adoption


----------



## Synergy

ISU researchers test accuracy of fitness bands and find way to correct self-report errors:
http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2014/06/09/fitnessbands



> “The point that a lot of people miss is that they think these devices will solve their activity problems and make them active on their own,” Welk said. “The device can be a nudge or a prompt, but it is not going to make them more active unless they change their behavior and learn from their experience. *A $25 pedometer is as good of a behavior change tool as a FitBit*.”


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## brad

Synergy said:


> ISU researchers test accuracy of fitness bands and find way to correct self-report errors:
> A $25 pedometer is as good of a behavior change tool as a FitBit


Clearly a quote from someone who has never used a FitBit. I've used pedometers and I've used a FitBit. There is in fact an enormous difference. A pedometer tells you how many steps you took that day. That's all. Without any manual data entry from you, the FitBit keeps track of how many steps you take every day for as long as you have the FitBit, shows you at a glance how far you are from your daily goal, gives you badges and sends congratulatory emails whenever you pass specific milestones, estimates your calories burned based on how many steps you've taken, tells you how many flights of stairs (or the equivalent change in altitude) you've taken during the day and monitors those over time, lets you compare your results with previous periods (days, weeks, months, years) over time, lets you join virtual teams of other walkers who help keep each other motivated, and probably 50 other things I'm forgetting.

Behaviour change requires sustained motivation. The FitBit provides a lot more feedback than a pedometer does. 

A cheap flip phone makes just as good telephone calls as an iPhone or Android phone. So why do people buy smart phones? I think it's because they get added value from the additional functionality. ;-)


----------



## Synergy

A simple pedometer works on the KISS principle. Sometimes less is more, especially for non tech type individuals. From a cost perspective, a simple pedometer is the clear winner. I've yet to see any research comparing the two so I can't comment on the effectiveness.


----------



## Spudd

I've had both and the Fitbit is miles ahead of a simple pedometer. And it's not that much more... you can get the low-end Fitbit for $50 vs $30 for a mid-range pedometer. OK, the cheapie pedometers are like $5, but they suck.


----------



## Westerncanada

brad said:


> Clearly a quote from someone who has never used a FitBit. I've used pedometers and I've used a FitBit. There is in fact an enormous difference. A pedometer tells you how many steps you took that day. That's all. Without any manual data entry from you, the FitBit keeps track of how many steps you take every day for as long as you have the FitBit, shows you at a glance how far you are from your daily goal, gives you badges and sends congratulatory emails whenever you pass specific milestones, estimates your calories burned based on how many steps you've taken, tells you how many flights of stairs (or the equivalent change in altitude) you've taken during the day and monitors those over time, lets you compare your results with previous periods (days, weeks, months, years) over time, lets you join virtual teams of other walkers who help keep each other motivated, and probably 50 other things I'm forgetting.
> 
> Behaviour change requires sustained motivation. The FitBit provides a lot more feedback than a pedometer does.
> 
> A cheap flip phone makes just as good telephone calls as an iPhone or Android phone. So why do people buy smart phones? I think it's because they get added value from the additional functionality. ;-)


I would agree.. Fitbit is on another level then a pedometer.. the technology syncs with various apps providing real time updates, information,calories burned etc. It's truly a beautiful device.. 

I'm certain if the Apple team moves to fully integrate this the sky is the limit in terms of what the technology could do. Eventually they could get detail through your sweat glands,chemical balance etc that would revolutionize the way we 'diet' and eat based on the hormone make up.


----------



## GOB

Major sentiment shift taking place right now. Earnings will likely be strong, iPhone 6 will be a huge seller and in all likelihood a revolutionary product is about to come out. 

It's been a roller coaster of a ride but fundamentals come through in the end. This is far from the end, though :biggrin:


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## GOB

Samsung is guiding for a 25% YoY profit decline. Looks like Apple's #1 competitor may have peaked, and that copying, spending tens of billions in advertising, scraping the bottom of the barrel to chase market share and unethical business practices can only get you ahead for so long. 

I have been waiting a long time for this.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Samsung is guiding for a 25% YoY profit decline. Looks like Apple's #1 competitor may have peaked, and that copying, spending tens of billions in advertising, scraping the bottom of the barrel to chase market share and unethical business practices can only get you ahead for so long.
> 
> I have been waiting a long time for this.


their products can be extremely good ... their current tablets are excellent .... android has problems ... look for google to build into chrome and let android loose


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## GOB

fatcat said:


> their products can be extremely good ... their current tablets are excellent .... android has problems ... look for google to build into chrome and let android loose


Very few people choose Samsung over Apple for reasons other that cost and screen size. There are some good smartphones out there but Android tablets are awful. Some people choose Android due to certain "open" features like 3rd party keyboards and apps-within-apps. Apple is now introducing many of these options in a secure manner (unlike Android) in iOS8. Together with the rumoured 4.7" and 5.5" screen sizes of the next iPhones, the reasons to choose Android for the vast majority of people without brand loyalty are only down to cost now.

I predict Apple will return to growth albeit at much more sustainable levels. Samsung will continue to be a big player but they will continue to stand are or see profit declines.


----------



## andrewf

Android, despite predictions of its imminent collapse, is still chugging along at majority marketshare in both phones and now tablets and rising. Google is working on making it easier for manufacturers to make compelling $100 - $200 devices with Android One. I agree that it will be very helpful for Apple to release phones with larger screens, though one wonders why they are abandoning all the customers whose hands are too small for anything larger than current iPhones (unless those comments were just rationalizing the small screen size of iPhone).

I think Apple 'fans' should be happy Android exists as a strong competitor. It has kept Apple from getting too comfortable and forced them to increase choice in their own ecosystem.


----------



## GOB

Nobody is predicting the collapse of Android - I'm certainly not. A free decent OS is obviously going to stick around. 

Everyone keeps talking about market share. From a financial perspective, marketshare is one of the most useless metrics to talk about, and certainly the most overrated. As an investor, I don't care one bit that Android will take the $100 phone market, because that is not a target market for Apple. I care that Apple makes the best smartphones for the majority of the population, dominates the industry's profit share and dominates the market and usage share of the people who have disposable income to spend on quality and spend on apps which encourage developers. Compared to these, overall marketshare is so meaningless, and if that's the only Android has over iOS, I'm an extremely happy camper on the iOS side. Notice that in more affluent markets such as USA, Canada and Japan, iOS marketshare is high and trending upwards. 

The one argument for better cheaper phones is commoditization. This is a possibility but it doesn't happen as easily or as quickly as people seem to expect. Mac computers have been around 30+ years - they still sell at increasing growth at prices and margins far above the industry averages. The iPhone, with Touch ID, sapphire screens, custom chip architecture and a unique programming language allowing unique apps and who knows what else in the coming years is not going to be commoditized anytime soon by a bunch of $100 Android phones. The rest of the industry apart from Samsung doesn't make any money as it is - how is this going to change by scraping the barrel even further? Google One is far more of a threat to Samsung than to Apple. It's proposing cheap Samsung replacements, not cheap iPhone replacements. Samsung has nothing unique to offer because they use Android. I'm predicting the peak of Samsung, not the demise of Android. 

I'm happy there is competition. I do acknowledge that Android may have spurred Apple to offer features they may not have otherwise, although I think Apple has had this in mind for a while and was working on implementing it securely, which Android does not. I'm happier still that Apple is far ahead of the competition for the metrics that matter financially.


----------



## KaeJS

GOB,

Are you not concerned that more and more people that are previous iPhone users have now opened their eyes and use an Android device?
I don't even know anybody with an iPhone anymore. The intellects of the current population have already made the right choice. Soon to follow will be the rest of the population.

Without a doubt - Android is a much better platform. I have a hard time believing that the iPhone craze will continue into the future.

You have a few points on the "security" issues. But, a lot of people are willing to trade that away if they no longer have to deal with Apples restrictions and horrible design and pairing of iTunes.

IMO, the only thing keeping Apple afloat is the fanboys that buy the new iPhone every year. With so many iPhones for sale on Kijiji and whatnot, it's only a matter of time before the iPhone is not so famous.

Please keep in mind I am talking only about the iPhone. I am not talking about the tablet business.


----------



## GOB

KaeJS,

I won't question your anecdotal evidence, though mine is largely opposite, but all you have to do is look at certain demographics as a whole. 

Apple is not losing marketshare in the US, which is the leading market of the smartphone era. When everyone has an iPhone to begin with, obviously a few will switch and obviously you can make the assertion that "all I see are people switching from iPhone to Android". As the market matures, people are starting to either switch to iPhone after their first Android purchase, or switch for a second time (iPhone to Android back to iPhone). I know a few people who have done this - switched from iPhone because of the attractiveness of "open" Android only to come running back for a variety of issues and realizing Android isn't all that it's touted to be. 

Saying that Android is a much better platform without a doubt is a completely ludicrous assertion, especially when you concede the security concerns that I mentioned. How can an OS that has no regard for security or privacy of their consumers (ad buyers are Google's real customers) possibly be the best? Every single year, iOS has had the highest customer satisfaction ratings - they're off the charts and unparalleled in the tech industry. So quite clearly, as stated by consumers themselves, iOS is the best. iOS users are happier with iOS than Android users are happy with Android. The numbers support this. It's not a coincidence that tech savvy and affluent markets such as California and New York overwhelmingly choose iOS. 

You are completely misguided in your assumptions. In addition to "fanboys", iOS appeals to the more basic smartphone consumer who wants ease of use, simplicity, functionality and reliability. My parents and grandparents are examples. This is not the type of consumer who upgrades every year. How is the iPhone growing in the double digits if it's just fanboys buying? Are they now buying two colours every year instead of one? Do you think Samsung doesn't have any fanboys who upgrade every year? Are their sales "real" and Apple's "fake"? Silly.

What restrictions would you like to see that Apple is not allowing in upcoming iOS8? 

To answer your question, I'm not concerned at all. The average iPhone user who switches to Android will soon realize that the iPhone is far better for his needs. There will be a few who really do prefer Android and stick with it, but that number will pale in comparison to people switching from Android to iPhone. Did you know that 50% of iPhone 5c users are coming from Android? Must be Apple fanboys, right?

As an aside, every single person I know who switched from iPhone to Android did so because they wanted a bigger screen. That advantage will soon be gone, though I wish Apple would keep the 4" as an option as well.


----------



## Pluto

GOB said:


> Major sentiment shift taking place right now. Earnings will likely be strong, iPhone 6 will be a huge seller and in all likelihood a revolutionary product is about to come out.
> 
> It's been a roller coaster of a ride but fundamentals come through in the end. This is far from the end, though :biggrin:


I'll drink to that. I was skeptical due to the loss of Jobs, but now I'm a believer. Apple seems to be a chronically good news company.


----------



## humble_pie

why is the eternal AAPL debate - now rearing its head again - always about killer competition? we saw what happened with this in cmf forum 2 years ago, let's not go back to didja voo all over again.

fwiw my vote for impartial judge goes to brad. Brad is one of the few members who regularly uses both IOS & non-IOS devices. He's good at figuring out specialized markets & whether these will last. Brad might say he likes a gadget here or an app there but he never seems to talk down rivals.

i bet there's room on the planet for several different OS.


----------



## GOB

I agree that things got out of hand last time. However, it is important to discuss competitors and their strategies. I probably shouldn't have been so gleeful about Samsung's poor results, and I'll try not to do it again. But it is beneficial to anybody following to highlight the fact that Samsung's strategy (which many believed and still believe Apple should adopt or face inevitable failure) is not sustainable. Fighting on cost to gain market share from consumers who don't want to spend money is a terrible long term strategy, and we are beginning to see evidence of it (3 consecutive quarters of YoY profit declines).

It's not about impartiality - I admit I am far from being impartial. But I don't think that stops me from being among the most knowledgable here about the company, its competitors and the industry and contributing good *factual* information to this thread that nobody else does. Opinions are one thing, facts are another. In fact, the majority of opinions fly in the face of the facts and are therefore dangerous. That's what I cannot put up with.


----------



## KaeJS

GOB,

I don't disagree with you that Apple has had increased earnings yoy. I don't know what those earnings are - to be honest, I have not looked. I will take your word for it. It doesn't sound unreasonable.

All I am saying is that I don't believe in the future of Apple with the way they are currently running things. The iPhone has not changed. It is the same thing over and over and over. Android has many platforms.

I have owned:
iPhone 3G
iPhone 3GS
iPhone 4
iPhone 4S
iPhone 5
Samsung Galaxy Note II
Samsung Galaxy Note 3

My next phone? Sony Xperia Z3.

I would never dream about going back to an iPhone. I don't disagree that an iPhone is "easy" or that old people/young people will buy it because of that. All I am saying is that eventually people will catch up and they will get sick of the same "easy package". They will get bored and tired.

Android offers much more individuality, customization, price ranges, etc.

Also, I'm not sure if the iPhone 6 is going be waterproof (seems to be still a rumour, unless you can point me in the right direction?) but don't you think Apple should get with the times and produce a waterproof phone by now?

Sony has had the waterproof stuff for a long time. Imagine how nice it *WOULD* be if you *COULD* listen to your iTunes in the shower? If you had a Sony, you could have done that in 2013. It wouldn't be "iTunes" (iTunes is horrible), but you can still listen to music all the same.

Apple is no longer an innovator. They continuously fall behind. They WERE the innovator at one point, which is what spurred their success. By all means, they deserve it, and I was an Apple customer for a few years. However, they have not kept up with their initiative.

Once people find out how easy Android _can_ be, Apple will be left in the dust along with it's elderly customers. Android doesn't need to be complicated.

What does iPhone 6 and iOS 8 really have to offer?

_"*Android Is The Top Mobile OS In The US*
ComScore’s latest figures (reported by GSM Arena) on market share in the United States puts Android in pole position with 52.1% of the market share, compared to Apple’s 41.9% with iOS (for reference, Microsoft has 3.4%, BlackBerry has 2.3%, and Symbian is ‘not dead yet’ with a 0.1% share).

In terms of manufacturers and handsets, the iPhone is still top (not surprisingly with that same 41.9% share), with Samsung in second place as the Galaxy range of handsets hold 27.8% of the US market."_

I know you think market share is an overrated piece of evidence. I disagree. If Apple is losing market share, it simply means nothing other than people are switching and moving away from Apple OR the other companies are providing a better product and obtaining NEW customers.

Take a look at this graph:










Apple might have better yoy profits for now, but this likely will not continue. Their smartphone business is shrinking.


----------



## GOB

You are making the mistake of taking the best features from every phone and expecting it to all be there in one phone. Waterproof would be nice, sure, but does your Samsung or Sony have:

- the highest quality and quickest developed apps
- 64 bit processor
- Touch ID, secure, and will be used for a huge number of things soon
- sapphire screen (rumour but a likely one)
- iOS (a personal preference, but considered the best OS from customer sat ratings)
- industry leading build quality
- easy customer support
- 3-4 years of annual OS updates
- extremely high resale value
- completely new Swift programming language and Metal architecture that will allow the creation of games that won't be possible on Android

That's just off the top of my head. Yeah, I think I'll take those over waterproofing. 

Again, your statement that Apple's smartphone business is shrinking is 100% wrong. YoY unit sales have grown every single quarter. In fact, sales have surprised significantly to the upside last quarter and are expected to be strong again in upcoming earnings. I think you are misinterpreting your graph. A flat market share with a rapidly increasing user base means large unit sales growth. And in Apple's case, large net income growth. 

To counter your argument, what does Samsung offer from the S3 to S4 to S5 that you consider innovation on par with the creation of an extremely efficient 64 bit chip, secure biometrics that actually works properly, and the development of a process to make possible sapphire screens that are cost-effective? Please don't say a half-baked heart rate monitor. If you think Apple doesn't innovate I'm really curious about who you think actually does.

Listening to music during my 5 minute shower isn't on the top of my priority list for smartphone features. I could get a radio for that. But to each their own. Don't make the mistake of predicting doom and gloom based on your personal wants and needs, though. Apple has a remarkable tendency to know what the mass market wants and needs. I don't see any sign of that changing - in fact, iOS is being much more accommodating to the wants and needs of more people. If anything, they're improving.


----------



## andrewf

I still see lots of iPhones in the wild. I think Samsung has reached a certain critical mass where average people will recognize one of their phones (at least S3 - S5). All that said, I am not a particular fan of Samsung and how they implement Android. Google seems to do a much better job with Android, unmolested by carrier or manufacturer bloatware. They seem to be moving more towards Apple's model of maintaining the OS centrally and rolling out updates in a timely fashion (which is a definite advantage for Apple) while giving device manufacturers flexibility to add unique features.

Kae, I'm not sure you're a typical smart phone consumer. Based on your purchase history, you seem like more of an 'enthusiast'. iPhone 6 coming in larger screen sizes will be a big selling point for all the people tied into iOS but are pining for the 'standard' screen size you get with android phones, much less phablets like the Note line. 

"- completely new Swift programming language and Metal architecture that will allow the creation of games that *won't be possible *on Android"

That sounds like a stretch.

The advantage Apple has wrt apps (such as it is) is a function of how easy it is to develop for iOS and how many potential users there are. Market share is relevant when Android has double, triple, quadruple the number of users globally on a more unified platform, and that is the likely destination in a few years given current trends.


----------



## GOB

The Metal API combined with the 64 bit A7/A8 puts games and graphics rendering on iOS so far ahead of Android it's not even funny. Samsung promised a 64 bit chip over a year ago and everybody is still waiting - it's clearly not as easy as they thought. Google and their partner OEMs will have to team up together to come up with an answer on both the hardware and software side and based on their business model it's going to be a real challenge. Apple didn't just decide to do this yesterday - they've been planning for years and get to control the entire widget top to bottom, inside and out. Considering Google doesn't even make money on Android, what's their incentive to even bother? We all saw how long it took to come up with a rather disappointing OS update.

Market share matters to the extent that there have to be enough people on a platform to be worth developing for. Though small in overall share, iOS has the subset of the market who buy the most apps, browse the most on the web, and make the most money (making them more lucrative targets for advertisers). Unless this changes, and there are no signs of it, Apple has nothing to worry about marketshare-wise. Apple's small percentage of users still out browse and outspend the rest of the world. The irony is that Google, an ad company, is targeting the worst consumers for ads while creating an enemy in Apple who have the consumers that Google really wants. Apple is slowly phasing default Google services out, and it's going to hurt.


----------



## GOB

A great post here that sums up most of what I've been saying very nicely:




> For me, anyway, the most surprising thing about Samsung’s disappointing earnings was just how surprised many folks seemed to be. The smartphone market is a massive one, but also rather predictable if you keep just a few key things in mind:
> 
> Everyone will own a smartphone – I don’t think this is controversial, but it’s important, as there are a few implications of this fact that are perhaps non-obvious.
> 
> The majority of buyers will prioritize price – The implication of a phone being a need and not a want is massive downward pressure on the average selling price for two reasons:
> 
> Low income buyers who might normally not buy consumer electronics or other computing devices will be a part of the phone market, and will buy low-priced models by necessity
> Higher income buyers who are uninterested in other consumer electronics or other computing devices will be a part of the market, and will buy the low-priced models by choice
> The net effect is that the average selling price for a phone will be low and always decreasing, while the high-end market will be relatively small in percentage terms.
> 
> Absolute numbers matter more than percentages – While it’s natural to talk about market size as a percentage, the absolute size is just as important. In the case of Apple, for example, the fact they “only” had 15.5% percent of the market in 2013 is less important for understanding the iPhone’s viability than is the fact they sold 153.4 million iPhones. That is more than enough to support the iOS ecosystem, percentages be damned.
> 
> There will always be a high end segment – The very reason why everyone will buy a phone (always with you, access to information, communication) are the same reasons there will always be a segment of the population willing to pay for a superior product. The analogy to cars is perhaps overdone, but for good reason: it makes a lot of sense. Like cars, phones are about appearance, performance, and experience; both are status symbols; and (in most parts of the world) both are necessities.
> 
> The high end isn’t that expensive on an absolute basis – Where the car analogy breaks down is absolute prices. The cheapest Mercedes-Benz you can buy (in the U.S.) is a surprisingly accessible $29,900. That, though, is 46x as expensive as an iPhone 5S. Sure, an iPhone 5S is a bit more than 3x as expensive as a Moto G, but the absolute price difference is only about $500; a car 1/3 the price of that Mercedes would have an absolute price difference of $20,000.
> 
> Low end quality is improving rapidly – That Moto G is a very nice phone that absolutely does the job for most people. It’s also not that big a deal, particularly in Asia where there are even cheaper and more capable phones available based on a SoC from MediaTek. Moreover, the entire supply chain continues to improve and bring down prices on every part of a smartphone, improving the quality of even the most inexpensive products.
> 
> Fleshed-out App Stores are table stakes – By fleshed-out app stores, I mean the iOS App Store and Android’s Play Store, full stop. It’s nice that Windows Phone and the Amazon Fire app stores are getting some big names, but the problem with an 80/20 approach (in this case, shooting for 20% of apps that satisfy 80% of needs) is that everyone differs on the remaining 20%, and it’s usually that 20% that is the most important for any one user. Of course, some users don’t really care, but those are likely super low-end customers anyway, which aren’t great for margins or your ecosystem.
> 
> Carriers matter, at least for the high end – Many customers, particularly in developed markets, are loyal to their carriers and only choose phones which are available on their preferred network. On the flipside, markets in which people move freely between carriers (or use dual-SIMs) are usually lower-income markets with smaller high end segments.
> 
> Screen size matters – The one physical characteristic that seems to impact phone selection is screen size. While the large screen phones are a relatively low percentage of the total phone market, they are a much higher percentage of the high end.
> 
> Software Matters – For years analysts treated all computers the same, regardless of operating system, and too many do the same thing for phones. I personally find this absolutely baffling; you cannot do any serious sort of analysis about Apple specifically without appreciating how they use software to differentiate their hardware. The fact is that many people buy iPhones (and Macs) because of the operating system that they run; moreover, that operating system only runs on products made by Apple. Not grokking this fact is at the root of almost all of the Apple-is-doomed narrative (which, by the way, is hardly new).
> 
> Software-based differentiation extends to apps. While a fully-fleshed out app store is table-stakes, for the high end buyer app quality matters as well, and here iOS remains far ahead of Android. I suspect this is for three reasons:
> 
> The app store still monetizes better, especially in non-game categories
> iOS is easier to develop for due to decreased fragmentation
> Most developers and designers with the aptitude to create great apps are more likely to use iOS personally
> None of these factors are likely to go away, even as Android catches up with game-based in-app purchases and as iOS increases in screen size complexity.
> 
> It is this final point that makes the Samsung news so unsurprising. Samsung had built up a healthy high-end business by:
> 
> Being available on nearly every carrier
> Pioneering the large-screen segment
> Producing hardware that was meaningfully superior to low-end offerings
> All three of these factors either have or are in the process of disappearing:
> 
> After a two-year lull, Apple has greatly expanded iPhone availability worldwide
> As noted above, the gap between low and high-end hardware is disappearing
> Multiple manufacturers have moved into the large-screen segment, with the iPhone coming soon
> In China Samsung has another problem: their brand and distribution channel, which they have spent billions building, is no match for Xiaomi’s star power which lets the startup sell phones at cost without any additional marketing or channel expenses. It’s no good to say this issue is primarily limited to China (I’m more skeptical of Xiaomi’s prospects elsewhere, but bullish on Lenovo) because the Chinese market is the largest market in the world.
> 
> Ultimately, though, Samsung’s fundamental problem is that they have no software-based differentiation, which means in the long run all they can do is compete on price. Perhaps they should ask HP or Dell how that goes.
> 
> 
> In fact, it turns out that smartphones really are just like PCs: it’s the hardware maker with its own operating system that is dominating profits, while everyone else eats themselves alive to the benefit of their software master.


http://stratechery.com/2014/smartphone-truths-samsungs-inevitable-decline/


----------



## Ebin

People who say Apple is not innovative are not credible. You can say that they're going in the wrong direction, you can say that you don't believe their business model is sustainable etc but not innovative? Laughable. That's Wall Street analyst type misunderstanding of Apple.

They are at least a year ahead on mobile CPU design, they are over a year ahead (probably more) on graphics subsystem design, they are ahead on power consumption (especially on PCs - their lead is MASSIVE) and power consumption is the next great battleground. Their use of sapphire glass is ages ahead of everyone. When Intel had these types of leads they were universally regarded as the most innovative tech company around.

They don't lead on every point with software since their approach is generally less is more but they're already staking claim in the mobile gaming business - their lead on performance and developer tools is, again, miles ahead of the competition. When Microsoft had such a lead in gaming with DirectX tools they were considered the most innovative.


----------



## MrMatt

Apple isn't innovative, they package and market it up nicely, but they're not really leading edge.

Their mobile CPU is among the best available, but it isn't leaps and bounds better.
Their new graphics subsystem is a new system that really hasn't been widely used yet, we'll see if it takes off.

It's funny you say they are massively ahead on PCs, since those are Intel CPUs not Apple designed.

Sapphire glass is just the latest evolution in harder glasses, do you think Gorilla Glass is standing still?


----------



## GOB

Who is innovative and what exactly is leading edge? Laughable arguments.

Among the best mobile chips? How about by far the best mobile chip - and close to a year old now. Unless you care to name something better. 

Affordable sapphire glass does not just happen. Apple has spent a lot of time working with GT to patent and develop a way to do it. You might just see a piece of glass, but it is innovation. Of course if another company did this you'd probably be lauding them and wondering why Apple didn't come up with it first.

The weakness of the bear arguments here should be a very telling sign to all. Very little discussion of facts and data, just back to "Apple isn't innovative" :upset:


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> Apple isn't innovative, they package and market it up nicely, but they're not really leading edge.
> 
> Their mobile CPU is among the best available, but it isn't leaps and bounds better.
> Their new graphics subsystem is a new system that really hasn't been widely used yet, we'll see if it takes off.
> 
> It's funny you say they are massively ahead on PCs, since those are Intel CPUs not Apple designed.
> 
> Sapphire glass is just the latest evolution in harder glasses, do you think Gorilla Glass is standing still?


Intel CPUs, AMD graphics cards... but so much better than PC? 

There is some debate whether sapphire is really a better material than something like Gorilla Glass 3. My understanding is that it is more vulnerable to shattering, which is a far bigger problem than scratching. We'll see the usual drop tests when iPhone 6 is released.


----------



## andrewf

I think the bears were justified a couple of years ago. Apple was somewhat highly valued for a company as large as it was. It has basically gone sideways for the past two years while the S&P is up 45%. That has helped it arrive at a more reasonable valuation today.

And a bear seems to be anyone who questions predictions that Apple will take over the world and attain a trillion plus market cap in the near future.


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## GOB

The bears seem to push their opinions regardless of the facts and without bothering to see if the facts could prove them instantly wrong. 

In your case, while not completely fact as it is unofficial, take a look at the following link and tell me if you still think sapphire may not be as good as Gorilla Glass 3. I'm not sure who's debating this, but I'm pretty sure whoever is doesn't know much about what Apple is really doing with their sapphire displays. 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...-bent-cut-gouged-keys-emerging-unscathed.html


----------



## andrewf

I follow Marques Brownlee and saw the vid a couple days ago. He specifically mentions that he was not able to test how resistant it was to cracks, which are mostly caused by edge-on drops. We'll see in the finished device. Scratching is a non-issue, unless you have sand in your pockets/on your desk. And he also didn't try using 120 grit sandpaper, which I would be curious to see. There's a lot of hype right now, we'll have to see how it performs in a device.


----------



## derp

GOB said:


> The Metal API combined with the 64 bit A7/A8 puts games and graphics rendering on iOS so far ahead of Android it's not even funny.


That's Apple marketing-talk. We won't have any tangible evidence until iOS 8 is publicly available.



GOB said:


> Samsung promised a 64 bit chip over a year ago and everybody is still waiting - it's clearly not as easy as they thought. Google and their partner OEMs will have to team up together to come up with an answer on both the hardware and software side and based on their business model it's going to be a real challenge. Apple didn't just decide to do this yesterday - they've been planning for years and get to control the entire widget top to bottom, inside and out.


The A7 chip is based on the ARMv8 instruction set, which Apple licenses. The hardware itself is manufactured by Samsung. The graphics chips are licensed from PowerVR. Perhaps the competitors haven't adopted 64bit because they don't see such a pressing need, rather than an inability? The main advantage of a 64bit architecture is the ability to address more than 4GB of memory. I don't think a single smart phone on the market exists with more than 3GB yet, and even that much memory is still quite rare.



GOB said:


> Considering Google doesn't even make money on Android, what's their incentive to even bother? We all saw how long it took to come up with a rather disappointing OS update.


I would wager Google does in fact make money on Android, as it is enables them to deliver many more ads via the Google services that are tied into the Android platform - and that's their core business. I suspect Android users are more likely to use Google services (gmail, maps, chrome, etc.), allowing them to collect more information and sell more effective/targeted ads.

As far as OS updates go, it seems that Google has been iterating Android more frequently than Apple has done with iOS - so I'm unsure of the 'long' development time you refer to...

Anyhow, I currently hold a long position in AAPL and look forward to the earnings report due later this month.


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## GOB

I don't see what you're trying to imply. Are you saying the A7 is no big deal and that anyone can do it? I guess Apple's massive chip design team had nothing to do with it...just get a couple of licenses and hand it over to Samsung to fabricate. Pure stupidity. I guess Samsung and Foxconn should get all the credit for the iPhone. 

64 bit has many advantages right now, in addition to setting up nicely for the future making sure that developers have ample time to transition their apps to when 4GB does arrive. Take a look at the following which includes benchmarks:

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/4

I'm not so sure that you're right about Google making much off Android. If they remained partners with Apple they would have been able to serve ads to the most valuable consumers who are willing to spend their money on quality. Mobile ad revenue is much less per click than desktop, and prices are dropping every year. Why would an advertiser pay to serve ads to somebody who just looks for the cheapest thing? That's what the majority of Android users do. I'm not sure Android is all that successful after all the development costs. I guess it does help the overall ad empire to a certain extent. Google services are tied to Android but they could just as easily have been tied to iOS if they played their cards right. As Apple has proven, getting the top end of a market generally outperforms going for marketshare. It may be similar in the ad space.


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## GOB

andrewf said:


> I follow Marques Brownlee and saw the vid a couple days ago. He specifically mentions that he was not able to test how resistant it was to cracks, which are mostly caused by edge-on drops. We'll see in the finished device. Scratching is a non-issue, unless you have sand in your pockets/on your desk. And he also didn't try using 120 grit sandpaper, which I would be curious to see. There's a lot of hype right now, we'll have to see how it performs in a device.


Scratching is definitely an issue in addition to shattering. Sand may cause scratches most easily but it doesn't mean other things don't. Smartphones can go through a lot of abuse and wear and tear. I have several scratches on my screen though they are mostly very minor and not noticeable until the screen is off. 

As for shattering, it would be silly to assume that Apple hasn't considered ways to address the issue. In fact, they have a few patent filings exactly for that:

http://appleinsider.com/articles/14...nt-to-ios-device-displays-illuminated-buttons

This is the problem with people who have cursory knowledge about a material or technology making statements as if they are experts in the field. They cannot fathom what can be done when the biggest, most innovative company in the world focuses their efforts on it. Those that can are probably hired by Apple...

I have no reason to doubt that Apple's sapphire solution will be a clear step up over Gorilla Glass. Where there's smoke there's fire and the evidence is rapidly mounting. Of course, people will refuse to call this innovation, but I don't really care. It's going to be a crystal clear competitive advantage.


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## andrewf

Well, call me crazy for thinking that a company that has made phones that are prone to shattering in the past, may continue to do so. We'll see when the device is released.

I see very few phones out there with scratches, even on those that don't use screen protectors (which are unnecessary). I see phones regularly with cracked screens, which is much bigger problem.

Apple, at the rate it's going, is probably 5 - 7 years away from shipping a phone with 4 GB of RAM. 5S has 1 GB.


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## MrMatt

GOB said:


> 64 bit has many advantages right now, in addition to setting up nicely for the future making sure that developers have ample time to transition their apps to when 4GB does arrive. Take a look at the following which includes benchmarks:


AMD & Intel have 64bit solutions too.
The AMD64 instruction set is widely used and well tested, having been on the market for many years.

It really is just another evolution.

As for Apple trading sideways, that is just the market changing their mind, Apple was a bit pricey, now it's downright cheap (IMO)

Google made Android so Apple wouldn't have primary control over the customer, Apple has blocked Google apps in the past. Google can't afford to take that risk.


(LONG GOOGL & AAPL)


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## GOB

andrewf said:


> Well, call me crazy for thinking that a company that has made phones that are prone to shattering in the past, may continue to do so. We'll see when the device is released.
> 
> I see very few phones out there with scratches, even on those that don't use screen protectors (which are unnecessary). I see phones regularly with cracked screens, which is much bigger problem.
> 
> Apple, at the rate it's going, is probably 5 - 7 years away from shipping a phone with 4 GB of RAM. 5S has 1 GB.


Well, maybe that would be exactly the reason why they would develop their own solution instead of relying on Gorilla Glass? 

I don't think iPhones are any more susceptible to cracking than any other phone. None of the drop tests I have seen seem to indicate otherwise. It is an obvious problem for any phone and one that Apple may now have an answer for.


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## KaeJS

GOB,

I still don't really understand your argument.

For myself, I am strictly only talking about the mobile phone market, and not the PC's or tablets.

But, I just don't get why you think the iPhone is, and will continue to be, so appealing to future consumers. You mention all of this information about sapphire glass and 64-bit and yadda yadda. However, I would imagine that the majority of people who would even care about those things are usually users of android. Do you think all those teens are running around with pink cases on their iPhones talking about 64-bit? Nope. They're running around talking about the fact they have an iPhone 6 with a pink case.

I just find it extremely hard to believe that someone is buying an iPhone for hardware/software reasons. I think the more likely reason for purchases is due to Apps and Popularity. There is no doubt that the AppStore is better than Google PlayStore. But that's about all that iPhone has, if you ask me.

Apple has not been innovative with their iPhone. Samsung (for example) has. They have introduced different sizes, prices, smartwatch, etc. Sony has also introduced extreme powersave options and "hibernation mode", as well as waterproof capabilities and a smartwatch to compete.

I mean - there has to be a point in time where you get sick of the same old thing. That's exactly what the iPhone is.

It's a tired, worn out, old product. The novelty just hasn't quite worn off yet. It has started to decline, and it will continue.


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## GOB

Wow. Screen size and different prices are innovative, while screaming fast mobile 64 bit processing, cost-effective sapphire glass, two-tone flash, creation of an entirely new programming language are not. Are you kidding me?! Please tell you're not being serious...

Smart watches are not innovative, as the market has proven. There is no compelling reason to for the average person purchase a smart watch right now. Samsung Galaxy Gear line is a complete flop. Let's see what Apple comes up with and see what the market response is. 

You have absolutely no idea on who the target market is for iPhones. You describe only a small fraction of iPhone consumers. You're so off base it's hilarious. Last time I checked, teenagers who care about the colour of their case aren't the ones who make up the wealthiest portion of the population. How about the iPhone's dominance in enterprise - did you forget about that one?

Can you please actually point to some real evidence that the iPhone has started to decline? You saying it has doesn't make it so. Before you point to market share, realize that the fastest growing segment of the market cannot afford iPhones - it doesn't make them unpopular (they are in fact wildly aspirational) but simply unaffordable to most. 

You are right about one thing - people do get tired of the same old thing. The same old thing is the Galaxy S5, for example. A 0.1" increase in screen size may be wildly innovative to you (I wish I were kidding...) but it isn't for most. Sales are slumping and Samsung's profits are tanking. Proof is in the pudding about what the same old thing is and what innovative products people are actually looking forward to.

Looks like Android's largest userbase are closer to teenagers than iPhone's. Surprising? Maybe to you, not me. Android also appeals to more uneducated people with lower incomes. Might be harsh, and there are certainly exceptions, but at least I'm not making these things up and passing them off as fact:

http://m.marketingprofs.com/charts/2013/10957/how-iphone-and-android-ownership-varies-by-demographic


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## the-royal-mail

Folks, GOB is just a pump for Apple and nothing more. They do not participate in any other discussions in CMF besides this, no financial, no off-topic, no other products. They are nothing more than a biased insider marketer trying to influence public opinion. Personally I think they should be banned.


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## GOB

I talk about what I know. I didn't realize it was a requirement of this forum to post in a certain number of threads or topics. My sincerest apologies. 

If I were trying to influence public opinion I certainly wouldn't be choosing a Canadian finance forum, which has a completely negligible impact on Apple's bottom line as well as AAPL's stock movements. I chose this place because I'm Canadian and enjoy reading various topics (even if I don't post in them) and contributing where I can (which is in this thread). If people want me banned, that's fine, I'll leave and lurk. 

I am much more than a pump for Apple, but thank you for the insults.


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> I talk about what I know. I didn't realize it was a requirement of this forum to post in a certain number of threads or topics. My sincerest apologies.
> 
> If I were trying to influence public opinion I certainly wouldn't be choosing a Canadian finance forum, which has a completely negligible impact on Apple's bottom line as well as AAPL's stock movements. I chose this place because I'm Canadian and enjoy reading various topics (even if I don't post in them) and contributing where I can (which is in this thread). If people want me banned, that's fine, I'll leave and lurk.
> 
> I am much more than a pump for Apple, but thank you for the insults.


i don't want you banned myself ... i have used apple since 1987 (i used to be a fanboy as you appear to be, that's OK) and i enjoy the back and forth (i have also used android, windows and about 20 tablets and so on, i buy a LOT of tech, lately i'm into chromebooks) i disagree with you kae, i think apple has an excellent product set

i read the other day that they typically keep 1-weeks worth of inventory on hand ... 1-week, that is phenomenal

as much as i like apple i wouldn't be confident predicting the future for any tech company, as we have seen all too many times, one or two innovations and tech can turn on a dime

i had a motorola moto-g which i think is an outstanding phone for the money and android in general is going to kill on price points but i sold it and bought a new iphone-4s on ebay because i threw in the towel on data sync

i am happy owning QQQ, i just wish samsung was in there too


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## GOB

True that tech can turn on a dime but I think the days where a startup will take down a huge company are gone. Start ups will either attain success alongside the current big players or get bought out and absorbed by them. 

Look at MSFT - no innovation for a long, long time but still a juggernaut that makes tons of money and rewards shareholders through buybacks and growing dividends. I see this as the worst case for Apple - a stable dividend growth giant.


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> True that tech can turn on a dime but I think the days where a startup will take down a huge company are gone. Start ups will either attain success alongside the current big players or get bought out and absorbed by them.
> 
> Look at MSFT - no innovation for a long, long time but still a juggernaut that makes tons of money and rewards shareholders through buybacks and growing dividends. I see this as the worst case for Apple - a stable dividend growth giant.


good points ... that's exactly why i own QQQ, i get apple and microsoft and google


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## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Wow. Screen size and different prices are innovative, while screaming fast mobile 64 bit processing, cost-effective sapphire glass, two-tone flash, creation of an entirely new programming language are not. Are you kidding me?! Please tell you're not being serious...
> 
> Smart watches are not innovative, as the market has proven. There is no compelling reason to for the average person purchase a smart watch right now. Samsung Galaxy Gear line is a complete flop. Let's see what Apple comes up with and see what the market response is.


Screen size isn't all that innovative, different price points isn't all that innovative, a moderately fast 64 bit processor isn't that innovative, using another "really scratch resistant" glass, invented 100 years ago and is in current high volume production, hard to call that innovative either.

A new programming language, do you mean Go, Swift or Dart? They're coming out on a monthly basis. There is a reason that C style derived languages dominate programming.

The market doesn't prove what is innovative, at most it shows what was successfully sold at that particular time. The Apple Newton (an awesome product) wasn't a sucess, but it was very innovative.


As far as Android appeal, it's just broader. 
Sure the cheaper phones appeal to those who can't afford anything better.

But the top end phones are equal to or better than the iPhone equivalent.
It might not be "innovative", but a bigger/smaller screen, or waterproof phone might be what the customer wants.
There is even the new Flex from LG. Personally I think it's more of a gimmick, but it's a pretty innovative technology.


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## GOB

I guess innovation is hard to define and means different things to different people. To me, market success is definitely a requirement of something innovative - it proves utility, desire and economic viability. The Wikipedia definition is pretty much in alignment with my thoughts on innovation, and I believe Apple does it better than anyone:



> Innovation is about finding a better way of doing something.[1] Innovation can be viewed as the application of better solutions that meet new requirements, in-articulated needs, or existing market needs.[2] This is accomplished through more effective products, processes, services, technologies, or ideas that are readily available to markets, governments and society. The term innovation can be defined as something original and, as a consequence, new, that "breaks into" the market or society. A definition consistent with these aspects would be the following: "An innovation is something original, new, and important in whatever field that breaks in to a market or society".[3]
> 
> While something novel is often described as an innovation, in economics, management science, and other fields of practice and analysis it is generally considered a process that brings together various novel ideas in a way that they have an impact on society.
> 
> Innovation differs from invention in that innovation refers to the use of a better and, as a result, novel idea or method, whereas invention refers more directly to the creation of the idea or method itself.


Frankly, innovation is being used these days as just a word to easily credit or discredit Apple. We can discuss Apple's products, patents and market direction perfectly well without using the word, and I usually do until somebody ignores every price of data I post and retorts with "Apple isn't innovative".


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> I guess innovation is hard to define and means different things to different people. To me, market success is definitely a requirement of something innovative - it proves utility, desire and economic viability. The Wikipedia definition is pretty much in alignment with my thoughts on innovation, and I believe Apple does it better than anyone:
> 
> 
> 
> Frankly, innovation is being used these days as just a word to easily credit or discredit Apple. We can discuss Apple's products, patents and market direction perfectly well without using the word, and I usually do until somebody ignores every price of data I post and retorts with "Apple isn't innovative".


both apple and android are constantly pressing forward with innovative ideas large and small and they both copy each other ... ios lifts from android and vice-versa


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## MrMatt

For it to be innovation, I think it needs to have some novelty or uniqueness.
Slight variations in screen size, or being a bit faster don't qualify IMO.


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## andrewf

For any product that has 70 or 80% penetration of the whole market, there is never just one market for that product. 

There are plenty of 13 year old girls that own iOS or Android devices. Same is true of affluent or sophisticated users.

One area where Apple can also really improve is battery life. With larger devices, they really should have the room to accommodate a larger battery.

Google and Apple don't really compete directly. Android was a defensive move by Google to ensure it doesn't get locked out of the mobile advertising market. It worked brilliantly for them.


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## KaeJS

GOB,

You still haven't told me what makes iOS so much greater than Android.

Android has the ability to appeal to a much larger audience. It caters to all types of consumer. In fact, your comment regarding education and income levels and the correlation between owning an android device is ignorant. Intellectual people realize that the iPhone is limiting and there are many more options and features that can be unlocked or come standard with android. In fact, you'd have to have the patience and basic understanding to operate an android more than you would an iPhone. With that being said, I will disregard your correlation comment. It is true that android offers less expensive alternatives - that does not mean that uneducated people are purchasing android. I'm sure it is true in some cases, but I am also sure there are uneducated people buying iPhones on Credit Cards, now aren't there?

When you start catering to everyone in the market, eventually, you will take over the market. iPhone will become a niche market over the years to come.

A bigger screen, lower prices, are not innovative in the sense that you think I mean. What I mean is that it is innovative in the fact that iPhone _doesn't_ offer these alternatives.

Android has that ability to cater. And, like myself, when I get bored or I think I like a phone better, I can switch from Samsung to Sony and I will still be on the Android OS. As I said before, you would think that if the iPhone is all about iTunes and music (this is what made the iPhone famous), that they would at least have added some waterproof capabilities.

I mean, how are all your loyal teeny bopper Apple customers going to take selfies in the water and post them to facebook when they are on vacation or at their friends pool?

As for MSFT - I don't think MSFT has anywhere near the competition that AAPL has. You are comparings AAPLs to ORNGs.


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## brad

KaeJS said:


> GOB,
> 
> In fact, your comment regarding education and income levels and the correlation between owning an android device is ignorant. Intellectual people realize that the iPhone is limiting and there are many more options and features that can be unlocked or come standard with android.


Actually, many people find this "limiting" aspect of iPhone to be an asset, rather than a liability. The more options and tweaks you can make, the more time you spend fiddling with your device and the less time you spend actually getting things done. I read somewhere recently that growing numbers of people are leaving Android for iOS because they feel Android is too complicated and there are too many settings and customizations to choose from. 

I don't know or care whether iOS is better than Android; I think they appeal to different groups. The whole "innovation" thing is overblown. If one soccer player does six back flips and a twirl in order to get a goal while another player just kicks the ball into the net, is player 1 better because she's more innovative? They both made the goal.

Innovation for the sake of innovation is risky: you risk alienating your user base because now they have to learn something new. Microsoft did some pretty wonderful (I'm serious) innovation when they came out with the redesigned MS Office back in, what was it, 2007? Word, Excel, PowerPoint, etc., are all much better designed now than they were, much more intuitive, easier to use. And yet there was massive resisistance and complaining from existing users, because they had to learn everything all over again and had trouble finding menu items because they'd all been moved. Even today you hear people complaining about how much they hate the new Office and wish MS had left a good thing alone. That's the price of innovation.

As I've said here before, the original iPhone was so close to perfect in design that everyone who's designed a touch-screen smart phone has pretty much ended up with the same concept. Innovation now is going to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, at least in the phone market. Why change a good design that works well just for the sake of innovation? That's stupid.


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## HaroldCrump

brad said:


> Microsoft did some pretty wonderful (I'm serious) innovation when they came out with the redesigned MS Office back in, what was it, 2007? Word, Excel, PowerPoint, etc., are all much better designed now than they were, much more intuitive, easier to use. And yet there was massive resisistance and complaining from existing users, because they had to learn everything all over again and had trouble finding menu items because they'd all been moved. Even today you hear people complaining about how much they hate the new Office and wish MS had left a good thing alone.


I am among those.
The whole MS-Office re-design (IMHO) is a classic example of useless "innovation" aka forced obsolescence.
It added zero value to the Office suite.

The worst part was that there was no option to flip the menus back to the Office 2003 style.

But then, this disease of useless innovation permeates Microsoft deep.
The list of their useless version upgrades and "innovations" is long...from Windows 98 to Windows Vista to Office 2007.

In the case of Microsoft, their primary motivation is to increase licensing revenue through forced upgrades.
The Windows suite of products is at the end of its innovation cycle, and the only way for them to keep generating revenue is forced obsolescence.


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## brad

HaroldCrump said:


> I am among those.
> The whole MS-Office re-design (IMHO) is a classic example of useless "innovation" aka forced obsolescence.
> It added zero value to the Office suite.


Actually not true. They did hundreds (if not thousands) of hours of usabilty testing with real users to come up and perfect the new design. If it had been built that way from the start, you would have been fine with it. It's the change that was painful. Apple went through that too when they switched from OS9 to OSX -- a radical complete redesign from the ground up. People hated it, it was like having a totally different computer. But OSX was much more stable, adaptable, expandable, flexible, etc. OS 9 used to crash on me every few days. I've been using OSX since it was publicly released in 2001, and I haven't had a system crash since about 2003.

Lots of long-term Mac users resisted it. I don't think anyone pines for OS 9 today, though. Change takes time to get used to. I think the new MS Office is light years ahead of the old version; I actually have to use the old version occasionally on an older XP machine we have at home and it brings home how clunky and poorly thought out it was.


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## GOB

KaeJS,

I'm not to keep debating with you because you keep ignoring the facts. This will be my last post in response to one of yours. How can my comment about iOS users being more educated and more ignorant when it is a *FACT?*. Even within individual cities there is strong data available to show that iOS dominates the wealthier parts of town. If you want to hurl insults, I can play that game too. 

You probably can't conceptualize this, but educated and wealthy people usually are busy with work and getting on with their lives. They have no interest in being patient with their smartphone - that's a huge disadvantage. They want something that is reliable, secure, and does everything they want it to do with as little effort as possible. No, that usually does not include bringing it in the shower with them to play music. Smart and wealthy people are usually efficient and get a lot done. A phone is a tool to become more efficient, and the iPhone is the best at it. Successful people who use smartphones as a tool to improve their lives do not get "bored" of their phone. It is a tool that helps them more and more with each iteration. Boredom or excitement has nothing to do with it. It's productivity. iPhones caters largely to this crowd, among others. Based on your posts, you are definitely not in this category, so enough with the insults and ignorance of fact.

You have some kind of weird obsession with waterproofing. That good for you, but you predicting the demise of the best selling smartphone line in history because of the lack of this feature is downright hilarious.

I fully agree Android offers more choice to more people. I'm saying it isn't the best strategy. Look at the PC industry. Who's making the money there? Dell? What about the mp3 business, or the tablet business? Hint: it's the company that offers the best choice to the most important demographics that succeeds.


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## GOB

I think I've made enough of a mess here, but happy to ingnite discussion in what was a fairly dead thread. Some may find me too abrasive or too much of a "fanboy" but I know others find my contributions helpful. I'll be back after earnings to analyze the results.

Brad - good posts


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## m3s

I think iPhone 6 will sell well. Many people didn't feel the need to replace an iPhone 4 with a 5 but now they are waiting to see what the 6 will be.

Apple is killing off Aperture. They will probably merge many of its capabilities with the native photo editor but I was happy to pay for something more powerful (and still a small fraction of the price of Adobe)


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## andrewf

I have to laugh at the idea that people who own iPhones are necessarily smart and efficient high achieving type A people. Selling it a bit hard... that might describe a slice of the iPhone user base, but it's dominated by tweens and soccer moms and aging boomers, etc.

m3s: I think you're right that it will sell well. I think there is a lot of pent-up demand for a bigger iPhone. I think a lot of people were disappointed last year and didn't upgrade.


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## brad

m3s said:


> Apple is killing off Aperture. They will probably merge many of its capabilities with the native photo editor but I was happy to pay for something more powerful (and still a small fraction of the price of Adobe)


Yeah, that's a bummer. I love Aperture but will wait and see what the new Photos app can do. No way am I going to Adobe: I used Lightroom for a few years and actually prefer it to Aperture, but I hate subscription-based software and have sworn off all but the free Adobe products.


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## GOB

Go ahead - ignore the data and laugh away...I find it more laughable to imagine those types of people using Android phones, because they don't.


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## MrMatt

GOB said:


> You probably can't conceptualize this, but educated and wealthy people usually are busy with work and getting on with their lives. They have no interest in being patient with their smartphone - that's a huge disadvantage. They want something that is reliable, secure, and does everything they want it to do with as little effort as possible. No, that usually does not include bringing it in the shower with them to play music. Smart and wealthy people are usually efficient and get a lot done. A phone is a tool to become more efficient, and the iPhone is the best at it. Successful people who use smartphones as a tool to improve their lives do not get "bored" of their phone. It is a tool that helps them more and more with each iteration. Boredom or excitement has nothing to do with it. It's productivity. iPhones caters largely to this crowd, among others. Based on your posts, you are definitely not in this category, so enough with the insults and ignorance of fact.


Having relatively high end Android, iOS (and at the time BB) I understand how the better devices help you get more done quicker.
In all honesty iOS isn't very efficient or effective at getting things done.

It's nice and polished, other than a few annoying oddities quite easy to pick up for basic work.
But as an actual productive system, I don't think so. 

I've tried to do "real work" on my iPad, it just doesn't cut it.
It's great for games, or leisurely web browsing, or books and stuff, but work, that's laughable.


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## andrewf

I don't know what data you're looking at, but to say that if you use Android you are not smart or efficient (the corollary of saying that smart and efficient people don't use Android) does not seem supportable, prima facie. I imagine at the very least there are a few people who work at Google that would provide a counter example.

This doesn't need to turn into a thing. You and I both know you made a hyperbolic comment. Let's leave it at that.


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## andrewf

Yes, for productivity, a "real computer" (running Windows or OSX or linux or ChromeOS or whatever) blows the doors off every tablet on the market. Tablets are inherently terrible for inputting information, and can't compete with laptops that provide real keyboards, higher performance hardware, superior connectivity, etc. for only a slight decrease in portability.


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## fatcat

brad said:


> Actually not true. They did hundreds (if not thousands) of hours of usabilty testing with real users to come up and perfect the new design. If it had been built that way from the start, you would have been fine with it. It's the change that was painful. Apple went through that too when they switched from OS9 to OSX -- a radical complete redesign from the ground up. People hated it, it was like having a totally different computer. But OSX was much more stable, adaptable, expandable, flexible, etc. OS 9 used to crash on me every few days. I've been using OSX since it was publicly released in 2001, and I haven't had a system crash since about 2003.
> 
> Lots of long-term Mac users resisted it. I don't think anyone pines for OS 9 today, though. Change takes time to get used to. I think the new MS Office is light years ahead of the old version; I actually have to use the old version occasionally on an older XP machine we have at home and it brings home how clunky and poorly thought out it was.


+1 from me ... i use microsoft office 2011 on the mac i think the ribbon is a huge, major advance

and i know microsoft did test the living daylights out of it (as they do many things) for a long time before bringing it out

office is a great product and microsoft still to this day has a very active and serious group dedicated to office on the mac (which i believe they make a lot of money on ... as they should since apples answer of pages, numbers and keynote (i think) are just awful by comparison)

whenever i get the fleeting urge to switch to windows it is only for one reason, to run office on it's "home-platform"


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## MrMatt

fatcat said:


> +1 from me ... i use microsoft office 2011 on the mac i think the ribbon is a huge, major advance
> 
> and i know microsoft did test the living daylights out of it (as they do many things) for a long time before bringing it out
> 
> office is a great product and microsoft still to this day has a very active and serious group dedicated to office on the mac (which i believe they make a lot of money on ... as they should since apples answer of pages, numbers and keynote (i think) are just awful by comparison)
> 
> whenever i get the fleeting urge to switch to windows it is only for one reason, to run office on it's "home-platform"


The ribbon is a disaster. Before the ribbon, you could customize the toolbars to get the buttons you need or use.
After the ribbon, you lost the ability to customize.
Frequently used functions that used to be a shortcut key, or an on screen button became buried under a tree you'd have to navigate again and again.

They can test it all they want, but for me, and my usage, it slowed me down.


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## andrewf

I have come to terms with the ribbon, somewhat. I find it to be a bit of a clickfest. At least you can add quick-access buttons, which I find vastly speeds up using it. It should come packaged with a google search bar, because any seldom used feature I tend to have to google in order to find it. It really should be customizable.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> I don't know what data you're looking at, but to say that if you use Android you are not smart or efficient (the corollary of saying that smart and efficient people don't use Android) does not seem supportable, prima facie. I imagine at the very least there are a few people who work at Google that would provide a counter example.
> 
> This doesn't need to turn into a thing. You and I both know you made a hyperbolic comment. Let's leave it at that.


Please go back and read my post before putting words in my mouth. If you don't know the data I'm looking at, try reading the links I post.



> Android also appeals to more uneducated people with lower incomes. Might be harsh, *and there are certainly exceptions*


MrMatt, it's funny how iPads are being tested or deployed in 98% of Fortune 500 companies and dominates corporate mobile usage. Sounds like a terrible device to get work done!


----------



## m3s

andrewf said:


> It should come packaged with a google search bar, because any seldom used feature I tend to have to google in order to find it.


So true :highly_amused:


----------



## andrewf

GOB said:


> Go ahead - ignore the data and laugh away...I find it more laughable to imagine those types of people using Android phones, because they don't.


Duly read.


----------



## SkyFall

I didn't expect a war in here hahhaha


----------



## humble_pie

it's evident that the warriors have become battle-hardened, so they are all noticeably wittier than the last uprising


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Please go back and read my post before putting words in my mouth. If you don't know the data I'm looking at, try reading the links I post.
> 
> MrMatt, it's funny how iPads are being tested or deployed in 98% of Fortune 500 companies and dominates corporate mobile usage. Sounds like a terrible device to get work done!


I've got a simple test, try to do some work on an iPad, maybe analyse a stock, that's just read a few documents and perform a few calculations.
It's actually an infuriating process to get stuff done, try it.

Tablets and other smart devices can make nice limited purpose devices. I've been to a few conferences where they hooked barcode scanners to smartphones.
If you were interested in a vendor/station, they simply scanned your ID badge for your contact information, and they'd email you later.

Just because a device is being evaluated doesn't mean it's going to be widely deployed as an important work device. Secondly, large companies are notoriously bad at getting good tools that work well to the actual workers of the company. They often make a decision that looks nice at their level, and let everyone else sort it out. 
Ever wonder why Dilbert is filed in non-fiction?


----------



## brad

MrMatt said:


> I've got a simple test, try to do some work on an iPad, maybe analyse a stock, that's just read a few documents and perform a few calculations.
> It's actually an infuriating process to get stuff done, try it.


I think you're using a very limited definition of "work." Plenty of people use tablets in their work every day: medical workers, field researchers, real estate agents, contractors. And yes, office workers and even lawyers. In fact a corporate lawyer wrote a 300 page book about how to use an iPad at work (and that was written a couple of generations of iPad ago): http://macsparky.com/ipadatwork/

I agree that it's nowhere near as efficient for some tasks as a laptop with a real keyboard, although I've used my iPad as a small laptop substitute simply by bringing along a bluetooth keyboard. It works great for writing and editing, which is what most of my work involves. The keyboard adds a little weight and bulk, but it's still lighter than my laptop.


----------



## m3s

Pilots and aircrews are carrying tablets now, instead of mountains of checklists. Tablets have many uses for portable information.

Smartphones do have built in scanners already (camera) to scan these










Skyfall, I'm guessing you didn't read the entire thread that predates your registration :tongue-new:


----------



## SkyFall

m3s said:


> Skyfall, I'm guessing you didn't read the entire thread that predates your registration :tongue-new:


its over 233 pages..... well you know what instead of watching a movie tonight imma entertain myself with this thread


----------



## KaeJS

GOB said:


> MrMatt, it's funny how iPads are being tested or deployed in 98% of Fortune 500 companies and dominates corporate mobile usage. Sounds like a terrible device to get work done!


Yeah... and just look how that worked out for BlackBerry (or RIM, whatever you wanna call them).

RIM was the same way.

One product. One trick pony. Big innovation at the beginning, and then too stubborn to change and innovate further. Too blind to see that not everyone wants to have a keyboard or use BBM.

Your darling AAPL is following their lead pretty clearly.

Since you are all about facts:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)#Market_share

Market share is important. Fortune 500 companies aren't going to even matter. I understand your point with regards to market share not being a concern in terms of certain aspects. For example, a larger market share but lower revenue per item sold may balance out. In this case, though, a majority market share (and one that has been steadily growing) shows that Android (Google) is doing something _right_ that the consumer _wants_.

Just think about it, GOB. If you had a business. Would you rather cater to BUSINESSES with budgets and nonsensical employees that are all a liability, OR, would you rather cater to the CONSUMER, with no obligation and over a billion potential customers? 

I would put my money down any day that most people don't care to the fullest extent about security, nor do they even know the difference in coding or what certain security provides that may be better over another.


----------



## HaroldCrump

brad said:


> They did hundreds (if not thousands) of hours of usabilty testing with *real users *to come up and perfect the new design.


Hmm...somehow they forgot to ask me :rolleyes2:

I am as real a user of Office suite as it gets - I use Excel on an all day (and often all night) basis.
When our company was forced (by Micro$oft) to "upgrade" to Office 2007, I (and many of my colleagues) suffered through several hundred hours of productivity loss while adapting to the new system.
The only saving grace was that they preserved all the keyboard shortcuts, so we pretty much stopped looking at the screen and just used the keyboard shortcuts for most of the common functions.

The productivity loss just in our department for the first few months would be in hundreds of thousands of $$ - something that Micro$oft never compensated us for, and instead, slapped higher license fees on us for the new versions.

I am sure the geeks were gushing all over it, but as a business end-user, those changes did nothing for us.

The exact same game is being played out all over again in the upgrade to Windows 8.
We are being forced to upgrade since anything older than Windows 7 will soon be no longer supported.
At some point in 2015, support for Windows 7 will also end.

I am not against version/product upgrades when it makes sense i.e. there are significant new features and capabilities, not just cosmetic and so-called "usability" changes.

Micro$oft's innovation curved peaked sometime around 2003 or so, with the introduction of Windows XP on the desktop and Windows 2003 on the server - both included significant core & kernel level changes that improved stability, speed, reliability & fault tolerance.
The incremental improvements can easily be accommodated on a 5 year cycle, if at all.
In fact, given the new Windows Update model introduced since Windows XP, there is hardly any need to upgrade OS's - most of the new tweaks can be pushed down via WU.

That company is no more than a blood-sucking leech at this point.
I know for a fact that one of Canada's top 5 banks (which I will not name) is currently in the process of a significant desktop upgrade process to Windows 7.
Originally budgeted to cost $12M over 1 year, costs have now ballooned to over $16M and they are several months behind schedule.
The executives are fuming at this daylight highway robbery.

This "project" affects me directly as a shareholder.

Perhaps I should buy some shares in Micro$oft.
Same principle as investing in tobacco companies - make money from a monopolistic, propriety product, consumed by hapless addicts that have no other viable option.


----------



## fatcat

i use an ipad air and actually have thought about the new surface tablet (i use my tablet on a stand next to my reading chair so the surface would be used without a keyboard) because i find the ipad too limiting (i can't use ad-blocking software on chrome for example) .. i would like to customize it more and have good voice-dictation especially

nevertheless, i recognize that the locked down aspect makes it very useful and easy to manage for many a grandma which is why it is the market leader

i don't think any of these fortune 500 businesses are using it replace laptops but rather for specific dedicated tasks which it can do very, very well ... i have tried at least a half-dozen android tablets ans they just are not as polished, android is very good on phones but not so good on tablets

harold, i think the ribbon interface was designed for people like me, occasional regular users of office but not power users

can't you power users just stay with older versions, file formats are easily interchanged now ?

and why wouldn't you want to buy msft, it's a great stock ? i have it in QQQ ... i wish i could buy more


----------



## HaroldCrump

fatcat said:


> harold, i think the ribbon interface was designed for people like me, occasional regular users of office but not power users


Did you participate in that usability study by Micro$oft?
Anyhow, I blame you regardless ;o)



> can't you power users just stay with older versions, file formats are easily interchanged now ?


I am happy to stay with older versions for _*personal use*_.
In fact, at home I run a copy of Windows XP as a virtual machine (VPC).
On that, I have Office 2003...ah, the luxury :biggrin:

However, that is not an option for work/corporate use.
Our organizations are forced to upgrade because of support reasons.
They have to rebuild our work laptops with updated versions of Windows, Office, IE, and other products to maintain support, forward compatibility, and security updates.

Since most of my Micro$oft Office usage is for work, I am condemned to suffer through Micro$oft's new-fangled ideas of "usability".
Don't even get me started on the "new and improved" Windows 8 metro-style, tablet UI 



> and why wouldn't you want to buy msft, it's a great stock ?


*Great?*

A stock that went nowhere (in fact _down_) nearly 25% over a 10 year period can hardly be called great.
Other than its juicy, worth-dying-for 2.50% dividend, what else does it offer?










Granted, in the last year or so, it has started moving up again, but keep in mind that this stock has underperformed every major index, such as DJIA, S&P 500 over a 10 year period.
A large cap stock that underperforms in this manner during the largest bull market since the dotcom bubble can hardly be called great.


----------



## MrMatt

brad said:


> I think you're using a very limited definition of "work." Plenty of people use tablets in their work every day: medical workers, field researchers, real estate agents, contractors. And yes, office workers and even lawyers. In fact a corporate lawyer wrote a 300 page book about how to use an iPad at work (and that was written a couple of generations of iPad ago): http://macsparky.com/ipadatwork/
> 
> I agree that it's nowhere near as efficient for some tasks as a laptop with a real keyboard, although I've used my iPad as a small laptop substitute simply by bringing along a bluetooth keyboard. It works great for writing and editing, which is what most of my work involves. The keyboard adds a little weight and bulk, but it's still lighter than my laptop.


When I think of doing "real work on" I mean tasks that you would typically use a computer for.
A bit of web browsing or firing out a quick email, querying a database and lightweight stuff like that is just fine.

But anything more than a single straightforward task and it really starts to show its limits.


----------



## fatcat

HaroldCrump said:


> Did you participate in that usability study by Micro$oft?
> Anyhow, I blame you regardless ;o)


well, i'm sure if i am not guilty of that, i am guilty of something else ... don't they say that guilt is the gift that keeps on giving ? :biggrin:




> Granted, in the last year or so, it has started moving up again, but keep in mind that this stock has underperformed every major index, such as DJIA, S&P 500 over a 10 year period.
> A large cap stock that underperforms in this manner during the largest bull market since the dotcom bubble can hardly be called great.


indeed i am referring to _lately_, certainly over the last decade you would want your money elsewhere

their surface tablet is overpriced but excellent and they are beefing up their cloud offerings and windows phone isn't quite dead yet, office and windows are still being bought .. i think they are still in the game, but as i have said ad-nausuem i am happy holding them along with all my tech in an etf .. i won't bet on _anyone_ for tech anymore


----------



## GOB

I guess some people here consider this unimportant, but speaking of enterprise...



> By: Mikey Campbell
> Tuesday, July 15, 2014 4:54 PM
> Tech giants Apple and IBM on Tuesday announced a new partnership that looks to revolutionize mobile device use in enterprise with customized apps and services for iPhone and iPad.
> 
> 
> 
> As part of the new partnership, an extension of IBM's MobileFirst initiative dubbed "IBM MobileFirst for iOS," IBM has developed more than 100 native iOS apps and services tailored to the needs of multiple industries. When the program goes live, Apple will introduce a new AppleCare tier designed specifically for enterprise customers.
> 
> "iPhone and iPad are the best mobile devices in the world and have transformed the way people work with over 98 percent of the Fortune 500 and over 92 percent of the Global 500 using iOS devices in their business today," said Apple CEO Tim Cook. "For the first time ever we're putting IBM's renowned big data analytics at iOS users' fingertips, which opens up a large market opportunity for Apple. This is a radical step for enterprise and something that only Apple and IBM can deliver."
> 
> Cook also mentioned in an interview with CNBC that, despite the large marketshare in enterprise, Apple has a huge growth potential in penetrating deeper into those industries. IBM Chairman, President and CEO Ginni Rometty agreed, saying current enterprise mobility usually ends at email and calendaring.
> 
> As an example, the pair discussed a prototype app built for the airline industry that is expected to roll out later this year. Instead of current iPad deployments in the cockpit, which replace crew electronic flight bags, IBM will be integrating its networked solutions to offer more accurate fuel estimates for pilots on the ground, saving carriers money on a global scale.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The big news is IBM's MobileFirst Supply and Management program, which supplies enterprise customers with device packages, activation and management services all built around Apple's iPhone and iPad. IBM is also offering hardware leasing options. Backed by iPhone and iPad distribution from IBM, Apple now has a huge advantage in its mobile initiatives for enterprise going forward.
> 
> Aside from the tailor-made software, IBM will also offer services like mass device management, security, analytics and mobile integration. The IBM MobileFirst Platform for iOS delivers a holistic end-to-end enterprise solution that includes analytics, cloud storage, security and integration tools.
> 
> IBM is also making available private app catalogs, data and transaction security services, and a its first-party productivity suite designed specifically for the MobileFirst initiative. Services will have tie-ins with IBM's Bluemix development platform and are to be made available on the IBM Cloud Marketplace.
> 
> As for support, Apple provides a special class of AppleCare services to customers that includes 24/7 telephone and email support, while IBM handles on-site repairs.
> 
> "Mobility--combined with the phenomena of data and cloud--is transforming business and our industry in historic ways, allowing people to re-imagine work, industries and professions," said Rometty. "This alliance with Apple will build on our momentum in bringing these innovations to our clients globally, and leverages IBM's leadership in analytics, cloud, software and services. We are delighted to be teaming with Apple, whose innovations have transformed our lives in ways we take for granted, but can't imagine living without. Our alliance will bring the same kind of transformation to the way people work, industries operate and companies perform."
> 
> MobileFirst for iOS and its corresponding services are set for a rolling launch that begins this fall and continues into 2015.


http://goo.gl/smbEJH

Android simply cannot compete. Look forward to seeing the usual suspects brush this off as no big deal...


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> I guess some people here consider this unimportant, but speaking of enterprise...
> 
> 
> 
> http://goo.gl/smbEJH
> 
> Android simply cannot compete. Look forward to seeing the usual suspects brush this off as no big deal...


When you say Android simply cannot compete, what do you mean?
Functionally it is capable of doing anything iOS can, and more.
The devices have a larger range of capabilities, as well as options with lower price points.

Funny thing is when everyone was on BB, people talked about the BYOD trend and how that would allow iOS in.
Do you think BYOD will end and they'll all go iOS, and block BB/Android?

It's nice that one services vendor is partnering with Apple, and that will be good for them, but I'm sure that support for other devices (Android, BB, Windows) will be available.

Long AAPL, GOOG


----------



## GOB

I don't know if you actually read my quoted passage but it tells you everything there. Android cannot match that, at least not with affordability, security and simplicity that enterprise needs. 

BYOD greatly favours iOS, by the way. iOS already dominates enterprise - this further cements the future. IBM is a hugely respected service provider.



> And now for those losers:
> 
> Android. Google's Android mobile operating system has a ragtag band of partners in the enterprise, an operating system that has taken security knocks and multiple versions that make the platform hard to manage. There's a reason iOS leads in enterprise market share. Gillett's point that Google will need partnerships is well taken. The problem is that it's going to be hard to match IBM's coverage in one stroke.
> Samsung. Samsung's business-to-business unit has been the biggest champion of Android in the enterprise. An IBM exclusive with iOS basically locks out Android in the industry specific application department.
> SAP and Oracle. Both enterprise software giants have been pushing their apps in corporation with a focus on industries they dominate. For companies thinking mobile first, IBM just plowed its way into the conversation.
> Microsoft. The software giant's biggest play was to get Windows shops---and there are a ton of them in the enterprise---to go with Microsoft on the mobile front too. IBM and iOS will derail those plans somewhat, but not entirely. Microsoft's mobile device management and collaboration platform will be strong.
> BlackBerry. BlackBerry is caught in the middle of an iOS and Android enterprise war. That position is going to hurt.


http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-ibm-cozy-up-on-ios-business-apps/


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> I don't know if you actually read my quoted passage but it tells you everything there. Android cannot match that, at least not with affordability, security and simplicity that enterprise needs.
> 
> BYOD greatly favours iOS, by the way. iOS already dominates enterprise - this further cements the future. IBM is a hugely respected service provider.


I read it, I don't agree with your summary.
More affordable? More Secure, simpler? 

You can buy throwaway cheap Android devices, or high end waterproof ruggedized versions that will be less likely to break in the first place.
You can install remote management tools
You can lock them to only allow approved local apps, or not allow end users to update them at all

Simpler? you can reskin to any UI you can imagine, or dumb down and remove various components.

I know IBM is respected, but so are Oracle and SAP.

I see iOS devices being useful, but I really don't see them as the best fit for corporate integration, though I'm sure some people will love the branding.


----------



## brad

I'm not sure BYOD necessarily favors iOS. We have BYOD in my company, and while it's true that iOS dominates I remember reading that Android has something like 5 or 10% and is growing. The main place where I think iOS dominates is security; I believe only iOS is allowed for our people who work on high-security projects. I have clients who work for agencies of the US State Department and they all use Macs; Windows is seen as too vulnerable.


----------



## GOB

It's not even debatable that iOS is far more secure than Android, and far easier to implement into a corporate system with the device hardware and software integration. Everything you described, MrMatt, sounds awfully complex and unnecessary when iOS/IBM is an option. Of course there may be isolated instances where Android is a better solution but those are going to be (and are already) few and far between. Just like Windows did with PCs, iOS has the foothold into the enterprise market and Apple is flooring the gas pedal. There's absolutely no reason for a corporation to consider anything else, especially when they have already committed to it and are being given options for much more in-depth and customized use scenarios with both Apple and IBM working together from all sides to make it happen. I struggle to see a competitive alternative - Google/Samsung? Samsung/Oracle? Laughable. Nobody has the vertically integrated, reliable hardware that Apple does combined with it's warranty system and nobody is more respected on the back end than IBM.


----------



## humble_pie

its warranty system

that was a possessive


----------



## MrMatt

@GOB

You struggle to see a competitive alternative?

If you can't see a range of competition, you're not looking very closely.

FWIW IBM will support JDE (Oracle), SAP, their own, and pretty much any other system you want. 


What debate on iOS vs Android security is there? 
If you don't install trojans, both systems are fine, if you do install a trojan AND give it access to data, you've got a problem.


----------



## GOB

I don't think Trojans are installed intentionally. I guess the key to avoiding malware is to avoid malware! Debate? There is no debate. iOS is far more secure, end of story. 

Don't underestimate the ignorance of the average person. Most have no idea what they are installing or what they are allowing access to. Malware wouldn't exist if people were not getting attacked and losing money/information to them. That is very dangerous in the corporate space. 

Android was never built with security in mind. That admission comes straight from Google.

This deal isn't just about IBM's "support". It's a massive far-reaching commitment from them - one they have not made to anybody else because Apple is the only sensible company for them to do it with. It's clear that you are the one not fully comprehending the magnitude of this deal.


----------



## andrewf

I think it is a mistake to write off Google in the enterprise space. They have higher penetration for corporate email and productivity software than Apple. I understand your optimism for Apple, GOB, but I think you underestimate their competition.


----------



## humble_pie

GOB said:


> It's clear that you are the one ...


+1, correct, this is the verb contraction


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> . iOS is far more secure, end of story.


iOS and Android, and AFAIK BB, all run apps in a permission restricted sandbox, unless you specifically grant them permission to access anything outside it.

The apps can't snoop your kb, read your email, check your contact list, or even find out your phone number, unless you give them permission to do so.

There isn't much debate, unless you install malware, you're good on modern platforms, if you DO install malware, you're in trouble, even on iOS.


----------



## andrewf

HP, is the grammar analysis necessary?


----------



## SpIcEz

@GOB

I think that is a very good deal for Apple. You are however delusional if you think Google will just let that slide and not make a counter move. You ARE a fan boy, and your head is in the sand where it comes to Apple.
Although they have scored major points with this deal with IBM, iOS is not the only game in town and you know it. Nexus devices, Galaxy devices, HTC high end and Sony high end devices are all very strong competitors, just as and if not more (in many ways) capable than iOS devices.


----------



## Causalien

Here's my take on the phone market having used them all:

HTC had a mass exodus these last few years. People say it is to cleanse the mud. I say the CEO is having personality clashes with its subordinates.
Sony's phones are all pieces of crap that crashes every day. Only the most tech saaaavvy should use Sony phones. 

I use an iPhone for my dedicated personal device because I can't be bothered to customize or troubleshoot my phone and because it feels good to the senses and I enjoy holding it without any of those crappy protectors in my hand. I am also rich enough to own one. For the rest of the non-western world. They choose android due to cost. Which means bigger user base.

HOWEVER, I have several $100 android phones for different purposes that have functionality not included in Apple's walled garden. (Yes in some part of the world there are $100 smart phones that runs just as well as the other ones). I also believe that developing for Android is now a viable and lucrative market.

The black swan is probably Windows phone. Surprisingly my parents, who are technically inept, are using windows phone. Which means it passed the id10t test. Have any of you used the Surface Pro? It is an amazing piece of computer. Microsoft is heading somewhere that is impressive by my standard. It is currently at the 3rd iteration and I still own the first gen. Let me tell you, the surface pro holds up pretty well against aging.


----------



## brad

Causalien said:


> The black swan is probably Windows phone. Surprisingly my parents, who are technically inept, are using windows phone. Which means it passed the id10t test. Have any of you used the Surface Pro? It is an amazing piece of computer. Microsoft is heading somewhere that is impressive by my standard. It is currently at the 3rd iteration and I still own the first gen. Let me tell you, the surface pro holds up pretty well against aging.


Windows phone is great, but as usual Microsoft was late to the party. I think there's plenty of innovation and creativity at Microsoft these days, but bureaucracy is their Achilles heel. It takes them way too long to get things out, most likely because they have too many layers of review and approval to go through. If they could figure out a way to become more agile, Microsoft could be a big player in new markets, but for mobile I think the train has left the station. They might make inroads in the tablet market. I also think Windows has plenty of life left in it. Quite a few longtime Mac users are bemoaning the "iOsification" of the Mac (where Apple takes away the pro apps and simplifies functionality of other apps) and are looking for an alternative platform to get work done. Windows just might be it.


----------



## GOB

*Earnings Day*

Well, now we have some data to either confirm or refute some of the speculation that has occurred recently, both here and in the general media:

I like to separate facts from speculation, so any speculation of mine will be in _italics_

*Myth #1: Apple is no longer a growth company*

Many people believe Apple is too big and no longer innovates and thus can no longer grow. Apple just grew EPS by their highest rate in seven quarters - 20% YoY. Even after accounting for the "financial engineering" of stock buybacks, net income grew 12% YoY. That is pure growth driven by sales. This growth occurs a full six to nine months after the launch of the flagship iPhone 5s, and during the launch quarter of the Samsung Galaxy S5, considered to be the iPhone's most serious competitor. _20% growth with an aging product line and no new product categories? Sounds like growth to me._

*Myth #2: Samsung/Android is eating Apple's lunch*

Samsung (Android's only profitable vendor) guided for YoY profit decline of 26% (their third successive profit decline), and Apple just announced EPS growth of 20% and net income growth of 12%, largely on the back on strong iPhone sales. 'Nuff said.

*Myth #3: The iPhone is boring, has peaked and is in decline*

Similar to above, iPhone sales grew 12.7% YoY, with a 6-9 month old product during the launch quarter of the S5. More people are opting for a 6 month old iPhone than a brand new top of the line Samsung. _It seems more likely that Samsung has peaked, and their past success was built off initially mimicking the early generation iPhones and building off the success with an immense ($14 billion) marketing push as well as offering larger screen sizes that Apple did not. The effects of this marketing are finally starting to wear off, and iPhone, with much improved iOS, 64 bit and Touch ID, complete vertical integration and upcoming larger phones is again becoming a far more attractive choice._

*Myth #4: Apple is only successful in mature markets and will lose in the fast growing emerging markets*

Apple is targeting the upper end of emerging markets, as they do to all markets. In China, iPad sales are up 51%, iPhone sales are up 48% and Mac sales are up 39% in a declining PC market. _Android has growth too, perhaps larger percentage growth, but is it profitable growth? Apple continues to take in the majority of the profits. The TD-LTE rollout is ongoing, and that is most beneficial to top-end phones such as the iPhone._

*Myth #5: People are bored/unhappy with Apple products, and are rapidly switching*

Changewave customer satisfaction rates: iPhone (97%), iPad Air (98%), iPad Mini (100%). _I think people who actually use Apple devices (several hundred million and growing rapidly) are pretty happy and most of the noise on the internet and in the media comes from people who are anti-Apple for whatever reason and have no real clue about their products._

*Myth #6: iPad is losing the tablet wars*

iPad takes 70% of the profits in the tablet market and more than that in terms of web usage. 

*Myth #7: The iPhone 5c was a flop*

The iPhone 5c alone outsold the Samsung Galaxy S5 during the S5's launch quarter. The 5c represents Apple's middle tier of iPhone, and this category grew most YoY. _Nobody knows what Apple's projections for the 5c were, but it is outperforming the iPhone 4S of a year ago, with a better product and better margins. I consider it a success._

Would welcome any discussions, but please consider the facts and make your points while taking the facts in to account, as I have. That would actually make things constructive, instead of talking about fanboys or teeny boppers. Anyone interested in real discussion should listen to the conference call - some good stuff in there and I don't think they are allowed to lie about anything, so you can pretty much take what they say as fact (except, of course, forward-looking statements).


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Well, now we have some data to either confirm or refute some of the speculation that has occurred recently, both here and in the general media:
> 
> I like to separate facts from speculation, so any speculation of mine will be in _italics_
> 
> *Myth #1: Apple is no longer a growth company*
> 
> Many people believe Apple is too big and no longer innovates and thus can no longer grow. Apple just grew EPS by their highest rate in seven quarters - 20% YoY. Even after accounting for the "financial engineering" of stock buybacks, net income grew 12% YoY. That is pure growth driven by sales. This growth occurs a full six to nine months after the launch of the flagship iPhone 5s, and during the launch quarter of the Samsung Galaxy S5, considered to be the iPhone's most serious competitor. _20% growth with an aging product line and no new product categories? Sounds like growth to me._
> 
> *Myth #2: Samsung/Android is eating Apple's lunch*
> 
> Samsung (Android's only profitable vendor) guided for YoY profit decline of 26% (their third successive profit decline), and Apple just announced EPS growth of 20% and net income growth of 12%, largely on the back on strong iPhone sales. 'Nuff said.
> 
> *Myth #3: The iPhone is boring, has peaked and is in decline*
> 
> Similar to above, iPhone sales grew 12.7% YoY, with a 6-9 month old product during the launch quarter of the S5. More people are opting for a 6 month old iPhone than a brand new top of the line Samsung. _It seems more likely that Samsung has peaked, and their past success was built off initially mimicking the early generation iPhones and building off the success with an immense ($14 billion) marketing push as well as offering larger screen sizes that Apple did not. The effects of this marketing are finally starting to wear off, and iPhone, with much improved iOS, 64 bit and Touch ID, complete vertical integration and upcoming larger phones is again becoming a far more attractive choice._
> 
> *Myth #4: Apple is only successful in mature markets and will lose in the fast growing emerging markets*
> 
> Apple is targeting the upper end of emerging markets, as they do to all markets. In China, iPad sales are up 51%, iPhone sales are up 48% and Mac sales are up 39% in a declining PC market. _Android has growth too, perhaps larger percentage growth, but is it profitable growth? Apple continues to take in the majority of the profits. The TD-LTE rollout is ongoing, and that is most beneficial to top-end phones such as the iPhone._
> 
> *Myth #5: People are bored/unhappy with Apple products, and are rapidly switching*
> 
> Changewave customer satisfaction rates: iPhone (97%), iPad Air (98%), iPad Mini (100%). _I think people who actually use Apple devices (several hundred million and growing rapidly) are pretty happy and most of the noise on the internet and in the media comes from people who are anti-Apple for whatever reason and have no real clue about their products._
> 
> *Myth #6: iPad is losing the tablet wars*
> 
> iPad takes 70% of the profits in the tablet market and more than that in terms of web usage.
> 
> *Myth #7: The iPhone 5c was a flop*
> 
> The iPhone 5c alone outsold the Samsung Galaxy S5 during the S5's launch quarter. The 5c represents Apple's middle tier of iPhone, and this category grew most YoY. _Nobody knows what Apple's projections for the 5c were, but it is outperforming the iPhone 4S of a year ago, with a better product and better margins. I consider it a success._
> 
> Would welcome any discussions, but please consider the facts and make your points while taking the facts in to account, as I have. That would actually make things constructive, instead of talking about fanboys or teeny boppers. Anyone interested in real discussion should listen to the conference call - some good stuff in there and I don't think they are allowed to lie about anything, so you can pretty much take what they say as fact (except, of course, forward-looking statements).


fine ... but i still *hate* safari


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> fine ... but i still *hate* safari


Haha! But Apple doesn't make you use Safari; the other browsers (except IE) are available for Mac. I personally am very happy with Safari and switched back to it after trying Firefox and then Chrome for a few months. On Windows I'm required to use IE at work but half the sites I visit don't work in IE so I use Chrome for those.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Well, now we have some data to either confirm or refute some of the speculation that has occurred recently, both here and in the general media:
> 
> I like to separate facts from speculation, so any speculation of mine will be in _italics_
> 
> *Myth #1: Apple is no longer a growth company*
> 
> *Myth #2: Samsung/Android is eating Apple's lunch*
> 
> *Myth #3: The iPhone is boring, has peaked and is in decline*


#1, They haven't released really new products in a while, though they claim they're coming. I want to see them.
#2, More people are opting for Android.
#3, iPhone is boring, the last several phones have been yawns with little incentive to upgrade. That's not to say they will collapse, I don't think anyone has flocked to upgrade Windows for the last several releases but MSFT seems to be doing just fine.


----------



## GOB

MrMatt said:


> #1, They haven't released really new products in a while, though they claim they're coming. I want to see them.
> #2, More people are opting for Android.
> #3, iPhone is boring, the last several phones have been yawns with little incentive to upgrade. That's not to say they will collapse, I don't think anyone has flocked to upgrade Windows for the last several releases but MSFT seems to be doing just fine.


Well, it's now painfully clear that you don't have a clue. The next 6 months are going to be epic for Apple and Samsung is going to crash and burn. I can't wait to see your defense/excuses.

#1: I didn't realize new products were a requirement in order for a company to be a growth company. Not many growth companies in the world then

#2: Apple could cut the price of their iOS devices and get whatever market share they want. It's a terrible business strategy for them. Apple dominates profit share and usage share in the smartphone and tablet markets. Android takes care of the low-margin bottom and middle end, which are higher in sheer number but worse in everything else. 

#3: I don't think Windows ever got a 97%+ customer satisfaction rate. Your opinion is one that is not commonly shared among people who actually use the devices and is therefore a completely useless one in an actual discussion. Apple bears have to pick one side or the other - some are saying there is little incentive to upgrade and others say the only reason iPhone sales continue is because of "fanboys" upgrading? Which is it? iPhone sales continue to grow strongly, even though the majority are waiting for the iPhone 6. In reality, many people are upgrading, many people are switching over from Android, and many people are buying an iPhone as their first smartphone.

It's funny how people expect Apple to cure cancer with every product iteration, but every other company gets a pass. After seven years of product development, radical changes are harder to come by. It's getting to be a mature product. Innovation is still there more than any other company, it just may not be as obvious to some. 

These are all easy conclusions to draw if you bother to look at the data and do some basic analysis. I guess I'm the only one who sees value in that.


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> The next 6 months are going to be epic for Apple and Samsung is going to crash and burn. I can't wait to see your defense/excuses.


Honestly, who knows what'll happen in the next six months, or even the next six weeks? I doubt Samsung will crash and burn. It does seem clear that Apple has some announcements coming up, several of which may be big, but if the past is any indication those new product announcements will probably just drive stock prices down further. The next six months could be epic for Apple as a company, but I'd be surprised if they're epic for shareholders.


----------



## Addy

GOB said:


> Well, it's now painfully clear that you don't have a clue. The next 6 months are going to be epic for Apple and Samsung is going to crash and burn. I can't wait to see your defense/excuses.


I just purchased 1000 Apple shares based on your advice. If it doesn't pay out in six months I'm going to sue you.


----------



## humble_pie

brad said:


> ... but half the sites I visit don't work in IE so I use Chrome for those.


true, true, it baffles me how badly the various generations of IE perform ... for me chrome is somewhat better than firefox ... although i don't use a mac

(aside to gob) do you think you might want to try being a little less ... shall we say ... er ... astringent?

please look at brad's messages. The reason they're so convincing is that brad has a broad spectrum of usage across many platforms, speaks from experience, doesn't pump anything, is objective & has sensible things to say!

gob there's no doubt that you also have very many important things to say, but there's a heavy edge of scorn in nearly all of your posts. Perhaps you're not aware of this? unfortunately the scorn tends to make your messages less convincing rather than more convincing ... imho ....


----------



## Just a Guy

MrMatt said:


> #1, They haven't released really new products in a while, though they claim they're coming. I want to see them.
> #2, More people are opting for Android.
> #3, iPhone is boring, the last several phones have been yawns with little incentive to upgrade. That's not to say they will collapse, I don't think anyone has flocked to upgrade Windows for the last several releases but MSFT seems to be doing just fine.


1) I agree that Tim Cook is getting a little annoying with his promises of new products and categories, something he's been promising since Jobs died, but the numbers say it's not "required". 

If he actually does, and I believe there were things in the pipeline before Jobs died, something we still haven't seen, it will make an impact.

Because Cook is a numbers guy, he may think it's not really time to release them yet.

2) when you give your product away and lose money on every sale (android phones) hoping to make it up on volume...let's just say it's not a sound business decision. Think internet companies with huge market share and no money...

3) I think this is actually Apple's brilliance. When I look back, Apple gave the world just what it needed to get you to buy. I don't think the iPhone was "complete" until the iPhone 4, but it didn't need to be. Apple doesn't really do planned obsolescence, instead it adds just enough new stuff to make you want to upgrade. Aside from the processor, apple probably could have released a much better original phone, but they didn't have to. I also think apple doesn't expect everyone to upgrade each generation, I think they plan in 3's, as in upgrade every third gen.

If you give people everything they want the first time, then it's hard to get them to buy again. While a boring strategy as far as owning goes, it's brilliant as far as running a business. Apple isn't expecting all the 5S owners to upgrade to the 6, my bet is they are targeting all the 4/4S owners out there...the "upgrade" for them will be very appealing...and there are a lot of those out there.


----------



## GOB

brad said:


> Honestly, who knows what'll happen in the next six months, or even the next six weeks? I doubt Samsung will crash and burn. It does seem clear that Apple has some announcements coming up, several of which may be big, but if the past is any indication those new product announcements will probably just drive stock prices down further. The next six months could be epic for Apple as a company, but I'd be surprised if they're epic for shareholders.


Don't get me wrong - Samsung is still a huge company making tons of money. They'll continue to make money but I see further YoY profit declines. The one remaining advantage they hold over Apple is about to disappear (screen size). Apple is taking their share from the top end, and an endless number of competitors are attacking the bottom end (Xiaomi, for example). Samsung has nothing to differentiate themselves apart from screen size, price, marketing and brand. They will soon be left with marketing and brand alone. That's not enough.


----------



## GOB

Addy said:


> I just purchased 1000 Apple shares based on your advice. If it doesn't pay out in six months I'm going to sue you.


And if it does pay out do I get half the profits? 



humble_pie said:


> true, true, it baffles me how badly the various generations of IE perform ... for me chrome is somewhat better than firefox ... although i don't use a mac
> 
> (aside to gob) do you think you might want to try being a little less ... shall we say ... er ... astringent?
> 
> please look at brad's messages. The reason they're so convincing is that brad has a broad spectrum of usage across many platforms, speaks from experience, doesn't pump anything, is objective & has sensible things to say!
> 
> gob there's no doubt that you also have very many important things to say, but there's a heavy edge of scorn in nearly all of your posts. Perhaps you're not aware of this? unfortunately the scorn tends to make your messages less convincing rather than more convincing ... imho ....


I've realized it's not my job to post in any specific way. There is plenty of scorn on the other side from a good number of posters. I address those issues and am forced to respond in kind to get my point across. Brad is an excellent poster but he tends to stay out of most of that stuff which is fine, but I don't like leaving blatant lies and misinformation unaddressed. 

I post a lot of facts and am pretty blunt with them. If it makes people annoyed that's too bad - they are the facts. 

If some people are not understanding my arguments due to my tone, that's fine and it's not my problem. I post for the people who are able to understand and get value from my posts, and I believe there are at least a handful who appreciate it. 

Brad doesn't pump anything, but is that necessarily a good thing? I am pumping AAPL because I believe it is a screaming long term buy and many people here can profit off it. I am providing a huge amount of data and information to support my arguments. *Is that not the point of discussing individual stocks - to make a case to go long or short? Or is the goal just to have a pleasant conversation with no action?* Maybe I've been severely misguided on the purpose of this forum. I have put a lot of time and effort into making a long case for AAPL, but it guess that makes me a pumper and has no use. 

Please keep in mind I am generally respectful until people start making things up, making things up that flies in face of freely available information, and addressing me as an ignorant fanboy.


----------



## jcgd

Gob, what do you think are the risks for Apple, or where do you think you might possibly be wrong about the long term prospects. We know what you like, what worries you?


----------



## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> true, true, it baffles me how badly the various generations of IE perform ... for me chrome is somewhat better than firefox ... although i don't use a mac
> 
> (aside to gob) do you think you might want to try being a little less ... shall we say ... er ... astringent?
> 
> please look at brad's messages. The reason they're so convincing is that brad has a broad spectrum of usage across many platforms, speaks from experience, doesn't pump anything, is objective & has sensible things to say!
> 
> gob there's no doubt that you also have very many important things to say, but there's a heavy edge of scorn in nearly all of your posts. Perhaps you're not aware of this? unfortunately the scorn tends to make your messages less convincing rather than more convincing ... imho ....


GOB is here for a little comic relief i think ... he a fundamentalist (my way is the only way) and they tend to be rather inflexible in their views and often adopt a paternalistic tone 

i use a mac mini, an ipad air, an ipod touch and an iphone on a daily basis and bought the first of about 20 macs in 1989 and have extensive use on win7, xp and some on ubuntu

nevertheless, GOB is always right and the rest of us are idiots



> Haha! But Apple doesn't make you use Safari; the other browsers (except IE) are available for Mac. I personally am very happy with Safari and switched back to it after trying Firefox and then Chrome for a few months. On Windows I'm required to use IE at work but half the sites I visit don't work in IE so I use Chrome for those


i use all of them and opera too ... safari is an abomination, their "office suite" is an embarrassment, their calendar and mail apps suck as does almost all of their other software 

they are miles, leagues and universes behind google in cloud services, even microsoft has stronger cloud with azure .... 

icloud is awful, terrible ... 

they have no search facility, siri is mediocre at best and simply doesn't measure up to google now and google search ... i could go on

i use all apple hardware and avoid virtually all their software and cloud services, as do many others ...

problem for apple is that hardware eventually becomes a commodity as the automobile, microwave, tv and countless other technologies have shown us because eventually everyone copies everyone and it all ends up looking exactly the same

the innovation in software and cloud services will go on for the next 100 years and that's where the money will be ...

as i have said, i own all three through QQQ


----------



## humble_pie

fatcat said:


> GOB is here for a little comic relief i think ... he a fundamentalist (my way is the only way) and they tend to be rather inflexible in their views and often adopt a paternalistic tone


the gobster is a brilliant, talented, headstrong young creature with a ton of promising potential & i am trying to bring him up properly & as you can see, so far i have not managed to make any inroads each:


----------



## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> the gobster is a brilliant, talented, headstrong young creature with a ton of promising potential & i am trying to bring him up properly & as you can see, so far i have not managed to make any inroads each:


as my grandad would say, "he has a lot of pluck" 

you always labor mightily for your young charges pie and typical with the juniors, they _cannot_ see it ... 
nevertheless, i expect you to be ceaseless in your devotion

i will play the bad cop ...


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> safari is an abomination, their "office suite" is an embarrassment, their calendar and mail apps suck as does almost all of their other software
> 
> they are miles, leagues and universes behind google in cloud services, even microsoft has stronger cloud with azure ....


Gosh, that hasn't been my experience at all. I use iCloud every day and have yet to encounter a glitch. I use Google Drive and OneDrive and Dropbox as well for various projects and they all seem to be pretty much the same in terms of performance, reliability, and functionality. 

My brother is a biochemist who runs a big lab, and he does all his work in Pages, Numbers, and Keynote. He's happy with it. I use Google Docs for a few projects at work and it's okay, but nothing can touch Microsoft Office. There are features missing from Apple's and Google's products that I use every day in MS Office.

I'm not nuts about iCal, but it works; same goes for Apple's Mail program.


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> but nothing can touch Microsoft Office.


agreed ... which is why microsoft continues to work hard to keep it on apple's os

i use micorosft's cloud and apple's cloud and google's cloud and find them useful in a limited way (google apps being the best of the lot) but not comparable to my locally installed version of office which is leagues faster, richer and more useful ...


----------



## Causalien

You know, all these debates really means nothing in the end. Each brand has their own market. When something somebody says infuriates you, it means that there's some merit in that. Attacking a person's understanding in the matter or personal attacks makes your arguments hold less weight. 

What I want GOB, is since the crash and burn you experienced last time. How have you repositioned? Obviously your $10 000 short term trading account should be $0, but you claimed to have a long term core holding in AAPL that you have not disclosed. Have you bought more? Sold off? Held?

Your position increase decrease is all that matters to me as we all rank what everyone does on this forum with certain weight and factor into their own decision. Everything else is just talk.


----------



## GOB

jcgd said:


> Gob, what do you think are the risks for Apple, or where do you think you might possibly be wrong about the long term prospects. We know what you like, what worries you?


That is a good question. Some of the risks I see are:

- Key executives leaving the company. People like Tim Cook, Jony Ive and Eddy Cue are hugely important to the company, almost at the level Jobs was. It would be a big loss to the company for someone like this to leave.

- Supplier complications resulting in product delays. Given the sheer volume and complexity of many new Apple products, this is a very real risk. The stock would drop sharply if there was a notable delay to something like the iPhone. However, this would probably be a temporary risk and the stock would recover longer term.

- Repatriation of cash. Apple is holding out for a tax holiday so they can bring over $100B of cash (and rapidly growing) back to the USA at favourable tax rates. This may or may not happen, and the difference could mean as much as 35%. That's over $35B that Apple may lose to tax. 

- Threat to the subsidy model. China is already making noise about and forcing carriers to lower their subsidies. This is obviously a risk to high end phones which are psychologically much more attractive when subsidized. It's a considerable risk, although only 1/4 of iPhones being sold are done so through traditional subsidies now, so it's not as high as many might think. 

- New product flop and erosion of brand image. Apple's new product categories are not guaranteed to be smash hits, and if they flop on a few of them they may begin to lose their reputation as a top innovator and premium device maker. I think this risk is low, as the new products should be great, given the amount of time being spent on them. They seem to taking the time to get it right as opposing to rushing to market. 

I am less concerned about competition. Apple's business model really allows them to compete on a league of their own. Samsung has affected them significantly but it hasn't stopped them from continuing to make money hand over fist and owning the most desirable product portfolio to the most important consumer base. Competition has been there forever and Apple has survived. 



Causalien said:


> You know, all these debates really means nothing in the end. Each brand has their own market. When something somebody says infuriates you, it means that there's some merit in that. Attacking a person's understanding in the matter or personal attacks makes your arguments hold less weight.
> 
> What I want GOB, is since the crash and burn you experienced last time. How have you repositioned? Obviously your $10 000 short term trading account should be $0, but you claimed to have a long term core holding in AAPL that you have not disclosed. Have you bought more? Sold off? Held?
> 
> Your position increase decrease is all that matters to me as we all rank what everyone does on this forum with certain weight and factor into their own decision. Everything else is just talk.


Good questions here too. I agree that this is the kind of stuff that should be discussed. 

My $10,000 portfolio was a test, and only a fraction of my core holdings. It was labeled as a huge risk from the outset and I was prepared to lose the money, which I did. What it did allow me to do was gain an excellent understanding of the options game and how to get a feel on picking good levels that balance risk and reward. In my core holdings, I had a large number of Apple shares, and I have not sold a single. I added bits around $600, $565, $500 and backed up the truck at $400. I never in my wildest dreams imagined a drop to $400 but it happened and I took advantage of it as much as I could. Not easy to do considering the losses I was facing but I did it.

I also had many bullish call spreads which I was holding. Several of them expired in January and April this year worthless, but they were low-cost gambles and didn't hurt me much. I'm still hanging on to many spreads that expire in Jan 2015, and these are now near full value. I may take profit around 90% of full value, or let them expire for full value. Over the last year, I've accumulated a lot more 2015 and 2016 bull call spreads, as I believed AAPL would run up and return to the highs and beyond. These have paid out very nicely (still unrealized gains though). I also bought a few naked calls including some Jan 2016 $100s soon after the stock split.

All along, since the low $400s, I have been applying similar strategies as I did to my test portfolio - selling puts and bull put spreads to get some weekly and monthly income. It has worked very well, as I have toned down the risk and I have made it though the volatility unscathed and with significant booked profits. 

My portfolio is now at all time highs, about 100% higher that it was last time AAPL was at these levels. I have many spreads bought at great prices that I believe are going to fairly easily pay out. I learned a lot during the 40% drop in the stock and I could not be happier with where I am now.

With Apple's cash hoard, rising dividend and huge committment to shareholder return via buybacks, I do not see a repeat of 2012/2013. I am ready if it happens but I just don't see it. Long term, the stock is going to break $100 and play in the triple digits.


----------



## Causalien

GOB said:


> That is a good question. Some of the risks I see are:
> 
> - Key executives leaving the company. People like Tim Cook, Jony Ive and Eddy Cue are hugely important to the company, almost at the level Jobs was. It would be a big loss to the company for someone like this to leave.
> 
> - Supplier complications resulting in product delays. Given the sheer volume and complexity of many new Apple products, this is a very real risk. The stock would drop sharply if there was a notable delay to something like the iPhone. However, this would probably be a temporary risk and the stock would recover longer term.
> 
> - Repatriation of cash. Apple is holding out for a tax holiday so they can bring over $100B of cash (and rapidly growing) back to the USA at favourable tax rates. This may or may not happen, and the difference could mean as much as 35%. That's over $35B that Apple may lose to tax.
> 
> - Threat to the subsidy model. China is already making noise about and forcing carriers to lower their subsidies. This is obviously a risk to high end phones which are psychologically much more attractive when subsidized. It's a considerable risk, although only 1/4 of iPhones being sold are done so through traditional subsidies now, so it's not as high as many might think.
> 
> - New product flop and erosion of brand image. Apple's new product categories are not guaranteed to be smash hits, and if they flop on a few of them they may begin to lose their reputation as a top innovator and premium device maker. I think this risk is low, as the new products should be great, given the amount of time being spent on them. They seem to taking the time to get it right as opposing to rushing to market.
> 
> I am less concerned about competition. Apple's business model really allows them to compete on a league of their own. Samsung has affected them significantly but it hasn't stopped them from continuing to make money hand over fist and owning the most desirable product portfolio to the most important consumer base. Competition has been there forever and Apple has survived.
> 
> 
> 
> Good questions here too. I agree that this is the kind of stuff that should be discussed.
> 
> My $10,000 portfolio was a test, and only a fraction of my core holdings. It was labeled as a huge risk from the outset and I was prepared to lose the money, which I did. What it did allow me to do was gain an excellent understanding of the options game and how to get a feel on picking good levels that balance risk and reward. In my core holdings, I had a large number of Apple shares, and I have not sold a single. I added bits around $600, $565, $500 and backed up the truck at $400. I never in my wildest dreams imagined a drop to $400 but it happened and I took advantage of it as much as I could. Not easy to do considering the losses I was facing but I did it.
> 
> I also had many bullish call spreads which I was holding. Several of them expired in January and April this year worthless, but they were low-cost gambles and didn't hurt me much. I'm still hanging on to many spreads that expire in Jan 2015, and these are now near full value. I may take profit around 90% of full value, or let them expire for full value. Over the last year, I've accumulated a lot more 2015 and 2016 bull call spreads, as I believed AAPL would run up and return to the highs and beyond. These have paid out very nicely (still unrealized gains though). I also bought a few naked calls including some Jan 2016 $100s soon after the stock split.
> 
> All along, since the low $400s, I have been applying similar strategies as I did to my test portfolio - selling puts and bull put spreads to get some weekly and monthly income. It has worked very well, as I have toned down the risk and I have made it though the volatility unscathed and with significant booked profits.
> 
> My portfolio is now at all time highs, about 100% higher that it was last time AAPL was at these levels. I have many spreads bought at great prices that I believe are going to fairly easily pay out. I learned a lot during the 40% drop in the stock and I could not be happier with where I am now.
> 
> With Apple's cash hoard, rising dividend and huge committment to shareholder return via buybacks, I do not see a repeat of 2012/2013. I am ready if it happens but I just don't see it. Long term, the stock is going to break $100 and play in the triple digits.


Good. And no more naked sold put in the portfolio. Your position is your word.


----------



## GOB

Xiaomi just announced their new flagship phone, the Mi 4 (along with a watch/fitness tracker). Design wise it's pretty much a rip-off of the iPhone 5/5s. It is rather pathetic watching the CEO dress exactly like Steve Jobs and use eerily similar styles for product launches, but that doesn't mean it won't work. This phone is priced very aggressively and will sell extremely well in China. Apple may be impacted somewhat but they still have superior branding, aspirational status and differentiation via iOS and connected services. Samsung, on the other hand, is going to have a huge problem. Xiaomi build quality is superior, their brand is superior (in China), their pricing is superior and they both run Android with similar specs. Samsung has very little to positively differentiate their S5 with the Mi 4 to justify paying about double the price. 

The China market is going to be very, very interesting to observe. My prediction? Xiaomi will grow the fastest, Samsung the slowest. The magnitude of growth in the overall market is high enough for all three to succeed...for now.


----------



## Addy

GOB said:


> The China market is going to be very, very interested to observe. My prediction? Xiaomi will grow the fastest, Samsung the slowest. The magnitude of growth in the overall market is high enough for all three to succeed...for now.


I assume Xiaomi is a private company, I don't see it listed.


----------



## Causalien

Addy said:


> I assume Xiaomi is a private company, I don't see it listed.


Yeah. Xiaomi will take over asia. Not just limited to China. 

Most people in asia have not seen Steve Job's way of presentation. Not only that, the presentation style is still pretty much a taboo amongst executives of the old way. I tried that a few times in my own presentations and got my *** handed to me on the content of presentation. If I must put it into words, the execs in Asia wants to cram in as much technical details as possible in a presentation whereas Steve's presentation style focuses on the emotion and everything expands from one single point of focused idea. The Why, how and what.

So yes, copying Steve is shameful, but doing it in the type of culture in asia is worthy of a medal.


----------



## GOB

I don't know if Xiaomi will take over Asia. Part of their current success is due to their business model of selling phones at cost and hoping to make profits on software and services. I don't think they can match Apple or Google in terms of integration and quality of software/services, and I don't think the majority of Xiaomi customers (price sensitive) are the type to spend much money on such things. Xiaomi has also been advertising hugely in China contributing to a large amount of their success. I find it hard to believe they have the budget to make an equally strong push across Asia and other continents. Most people outside of China have still never heard of Xiaomi - that is a big hurdle to overcome. 

One other risk to Xiaomi is their reliance on Android. Google is effectively locked out of China with copycat Chinese services dominating, and they are not going to be happy if they are not seeing a slice of Xiaomi's success. They are already showing signs of closing off and being more restrictive about Android and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up locking Xiaomi out sometime down the road. 

Currently, while sales are strong, I don't believe they are very profitable. I may be in the minority but I place much stronger emphasis on the bottom line over the top line. There's a lot of hype around Xiaomi, and perhaps deservedly so, but there is also serious risk about their long term viability.


----------



## Causalien

I am one of their customers. I bought two. Not price sensitive per say, but a smart phone acts as a very good "Raspberry Pi" in a better package.
Some of the tech savvy people buys them, install custom software and then use it as controller for stuff.


----------



## andrewf

I really don't doubt that Samsung will struggle over time to retain their position as the dominant Android handset maker and do so profitably. I never really believed that Samsung would see huge profit gains at the expense of Apple. More so that a plethora of very good Android devices being sold for very little profit would pose a challenge for Apple going forward. Google is the real threat.


----------



## fatcat

the sony television
the xerox copier
bell telephone
kodak and poloroid camera

all are now toast 

all really good and really widespread technology gets copied and commoditized, especially what i will call "daily use" technology like phones, tv's and items that are a regular part of our lives, lesser used items have a much better chance at longevity

but software and content are always being reinvented

everything apple does successfully gets copied ... they have only one road open to them and that is to continue to invent entirely new categories ... and time will eventually catch up to them

apple has to constantly innovate or they will die ... look at sony for a glimpse at exactly what will happen to apple

why is google constantly trying crazy new stuff ?


----------



## GOB

Things are not quite the same these days. Equating Apple to Sony is not exactly a fair comparison. It will be so much more difficult to do to Apple what was done to Sony. Hardware is the easiest thing to commoditize, though Apple is still staying ahead of the curve with superior build quality, unique materials (sapphire display, Liquidmetal?) and features such as Touch ID. Software can be commoditized as well but iOS offers a unique experience that cannot be mimicked. Ecosystem is the most difficult thing to commoditize as a good ecosystem makes a user happy and locks them in long term. Apple has the best ecosystem of hardware, software and services, though there is still plenty of room for improvement, especially in the latter two. Once locked into a quality ecosystem, there must be huge incentive offered to leave it. I don't see anybody being able to do it to a significant enough number of people. What exactly have Google and Samsung done recently to entice iOS users to switch to Android? I just don't see it. They have been reactionary to Apple from the onset of the iPhone. One of the reactionary actions (big screens) was a good one and happened to stick, but I see no real threat to Apple from these companies that cannot easily recover from. 

You are right that Apple needs to continue to innovate - but that innovation does not need to come in the form of a new product category every two or three years. They need to innovate everywhere to improve the strength of their ecosystem, as they are doing with things like Touch ID integration, HealthKit, HomeKit, and the seamless interaction between iOS 8 and Yosemite. 

To play devil's advocate, I'll add a couple more item to your list:

1) The personal computer. Certainly a part of our daily lives and used all the time. Over 30 years old and Apple computers have yet to be commoditized - average selling price is over twice the industry average. Despite having top-end pricing, they have grown at a faster rate than the entire PC market for 32 out of the last 33 quarters.

2) The automobile. It's pretty cheap to build a car to safely get someone from point A to point B. But luxury car vendors such as Mercedes, BMW, Audi etc. etc. seem to be doing just fine. 

I think Apple is well aware of the risks of commoditization and they implement strategies to avoid it. It is a risk for sure, but far from a certainty as many assume. If you think about it, nothing they have ever put out has been commoditized (correct me if I'm wrong, I can't think of any). Even the iPod has a 60%+ share of the mp3 market despite being priced higher than other options. The iPod is being cannibalized but it hasn't been commoditized. Apple has been around for over 30 years, and none of their successful products or product categories have been commoditized. I think it's silly to assume it's just suddenly going to happen.


----------



## kcowan

Samsung patent ripoffs.
Not news but a good summary in Vanity Fair. Expect it to continue as Samsung struggles to maintain their relevance.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Things are not quite the same these days. Equating Apple to Sony is not exactly a fair comparison. It will be so much more difficult to do to Apple what was done to Sony.


i suspect you are under 40, i am old enough to remember the salad days of sony and believe me, they were considered the preeminent tech company of their day and were known mainly for one thing, innovation, the walkman, the trinitron tv etc ... they were the shizzle, every bit as dazzling as apple



> Hardware is the easiest thing to commoditize, though Apple is still staying ahead of the curve with superior build quality, unique materials (sapphire display, Liquidmetal?) and features such as Touch ID.


yes they are, i agree though i believe that motorola, nokia and htc are putting out extraordinary phones ... in the case of nokia, the best phones on any camera, not a small thing



> Software can be commoditized as well but iOS offers a unique experience that cannot be mimicked. Ecosystem is the most difficult thing to commoditize as a good ecosystem makes a user happy and locks them in long term. Apple has the best ecosystem of hardware, software and services, though there is still plenty of room for improvement, especially in the latter two. Once locked into a quality ecosystem, there must be huge incentive offered to leave it. I don't see anybody being able to do it to a significant enough number of people.


as i say i own 4 apple devices and might buy an macbook air, i am a classic example of someone who is locked in but i am not in the group of 4-5 billion people who haven't even bought any of this stuff yet



> What exactly have Google and Samsung done recently to entice iOS users to switch to Android? I just don't see it. They have been reactionary to Apple from the onset of the iPhone. One of the reactionary actions (big screens) was a good one and happened to stick, but I see no real threat to Apple from these companies that cannot easily recover from.


i have owned several, at least 5 android tablets as well as 3 android phones (and a windows nokia phone the 520 which is an excellent phone for $150) and while i agree that the android os isn't as polished ... you do realize that you can now buy a beautiful android phone like the moto-g (which i owned and is an excellent, fast phone with a beautiful screen outright for $150), this is where i think you are missing something a hell of a lot of people just want a phone and don't give a shite about the beautiful os, really they don't care, they just want a decent phone, android (and windows) now have dozens of excellent phones at a fraction of the price of an iphone



> You are right that Apple needs to continue to innovate - but that innovation does not need to come in the form of a new product category every two or three years. They need to innovate everywhere to improve the strength of their ecosystem, as they are doing with things like Touch ID integration, HealthKit, HomeKit, and the seamless interaction between iOS 8 and Yosemite.


even apple knows that innovation gets harder and harder every year, entropy is working against you and it becomes harder and harder to come up with a hit

you realize that apples most recent and celebrated hires were fashion people, right ? the woman from burberry and the tag-heur watch guy ? ... along with beats headphones, some people that i follow think that apple is deliberately pivoting toward style and fashion and jony ive's design because they know that innovation is slowing and they are counting on being an upscale luxury brand, they are perhaps going to cede to cost-conscious end of the market ... they be making the best gear but might not be the best investment



> To play devil's advocate, I'll add a couple more item to your list:
> 
> 1) The personal computer. Certainly a part of our daily lives and used all the time. Over 30 years old and Apple computers have yet to be commoditized - average selling price is over twice the industry average. Despite having top-end pricing, they have grown at a faster rate than the entire PC market for 32 out of the last 33 quarters.


they are the best made pc's on the planet and are the only computers with actual re-sale value but they are now competing against $200 chromebooks and guess what ? ... windows is going to lower license cost so that they can start to put out $300 instant on windows machines, this has to take a toll ... i owned a chromebook and loved it (yes, i buy and play with a lot of technology)



> 2) The automobile. It's pretty cheap to build a car to safely get someone from point A to point B. But luxury car vendors such as Mercedes, BMW, Audi etc. etc. seem to be doing just fine.


sure, and remember what i said, niche technology has a much better chance to survive long term, mass market technology gets commoditized ... in the car world all 3 of those brands are niche technology ... look what happened to the "mass market" cars, ford and gm, they got commoditized by toyota and honda who are now getting commoditized by kia and hyundai who will soon be commodotized by tata motors



> I think Apple is well aware of the risks of commoditization and they implement strategies to avoid it. It is a risk for sure, but far from a certainty as many assume. If you think about it, nothing they have ever put out has been commoditized (correct me if I'm wrong, I can't think of any).


this where we disagree, we can agree that the iphone 5s can make a claim to be the best technology phone on the market but if we compare it to the moto-g ... $719 no-contract for the iphone vs $150 no-contract for the moto-g, i would say it _has _ been commoditized because *the moto-g is a much better value* if not a better phone



> Even the iPod has a 60%+ share of the mp3 market despite being priced higher than other options. The iPod is being cannibalized but it hasn't been commoditized. Apple has been around for over 30 years, and none of their successful products or product categories have been commoditized. I think it's silly to assume it's just suddenly going to happen.


i use my ipod touch everyday but it is clear that i am an outlier no-one is competing against the ipod touch because it's a _dead product_, all of the function it offers are being switched to phones, not to mention music is now being consumed via streaming

gob, i really can't predict the future, i don't know who will be the leader in 10 years for example which is why in the case of technology specifically, i only own via etf's ... buy them all

i have seen way, way too much excellent technology thrown under the bus

the _best_ often doesn't mean diddly in technology survival (or investment) terms


----------



## GOB

I think we agree on a lot, fatcat, with a few exceptions. 

Sony was dazzling, sure, but I wasn't talking about product popularity or hype. I'm talking about the strength of the business and the ecosystem. Surely a few one-off products like the Walkman doesn't hold a candle to Apple's ecosystem backed by a $160B cash hoard and continuous R&D. You may be right that the bigger a company gets the tougher it is to innovate and come with products and services that move the needle, but on the other side of the coin, the bigger a company gets, the tougher it is to bring it down. Apple is the largest company on the planet by market cap, and unlike many companies their market cap is actually meaningful because it is backed by a cash hoard and massive earnings. They are spending billions in R&D, tooling and machinery, the vast majority of it for products that do not exist yet. Barring a catastrophic event they will not be taken down like Sony was.

Commoditization cannot be viewed from one person's perspective - it's a market phenomenon. The iPhone 5s is one of the most expensive phones on the market and it is also the most popular. There is no way you can say it has been commoditized by the market. It does offer distinct advantages over competing devices. You as a single user may opt for a different device for a variety of reasons, but the market loves the iPhone 5s and they will love the iPhone 6 even more.


----------



## GOB

kcowan said:


> Samsung patent ripoffs.
> Not news but a good summary in Vanity Fair. Expect it to continue as Samsung struggles to maintain their relevance.



I've read that before. All biases aside, it's so easy to see what a sickening, unethical company Samsung is dating back far before they ripped off the iPhone. Frankly, I look forward to their struggles - no company deserves it more.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> I think we agree on a lot, fatcat, with a few exceptions.
> 
> Sony was dazzling, sure, but I wasn't talking about product popularity or hype. I'm talking about the strength of the business and the ecosystem. Surely a few one-off products like the Walkman doesn't hold a candle to Apple's ecosystem backed by a $160B cash hoard and continuous R&D.


let me take on those exceptions :biggrin:

sony ? one-off products ? 

sony invented:

the walkman
the trinitron tv
playstation
the 3.5 inch floppy disc
betamax (which as you know was technically superior to VHS)
the jumbotron for sports stadiums
the cd
they reinvented the transistor radio and made it ultra small and used the 9-volt battery
the betacam video recorder
blu-ray video discs



> You may be right that the bigger a company gets the tougher it is to innovate and come with products and services that move the needle, but on the other side of the coin, the bigger a company gets, the tougher it is to bring it down. Apple is the largest company on the planet by market cap, and unlike many companies their market cap is actually meaningful because it is backed by a cash hoard and massive earnings. They are spending billions in R&D, tooling and machinery, the vast majority of it for products that do not exist yet. Barring a catastrophic event they will not be taken down like Sony was.


market cap ? ... really ? .... microsoft's market cap in *1999* was _586 Billion which is around 838 Billion in todays dollars_ ... microsoft's current market cap is 340 Billion ... market cap doesn't mean much



> Commoditization cannot be viewed from one person's perspective - it's a market phenomenon. The iPhone 5s is one of the most expensive phones on the market and it is also the most popular. There is no way you can say it has been commoditized by the market. It does offer distinct advantages over competing devices. You as a single user may opt for a different device for a variety of reasons, but the market loves the iPhone 5s and they will love the iPhone 6 even more.


i'm sure the iphone-6 will be the shizzle and i might buy the 5.5 inch if it comes out and if i feel especially flush with cash ... none of which detracts from it's incredible profitability for apple, it will be technically excellent and it will sell very well ... but it will be dwarfed by android phone sales

and every day week month and year those android phones are getting better as is the os

this is the rule it is much, much easier to copy and catch up to the leader than it is to invent new stuff ... much easier
and this is especially true for any technology that has wide mass appeal and in which there is good money

i cite televisions as a prime example, they are now completely commoditized and so good that it's hard to find a reason to really prefer one brand over another ... at one time sony was the clearly technically superior television with the trinitron and the wega flat screen

i'm not saying i would bet against apple but as i have said before, i want to own all of tech in an etf and i would never bet on one horse in technology


----------



## GOB

As I specified, Apple's market cap makes sense and is completely fairly valued, if not undervalued. Microsoft had a P/E of 70 during the dot com bubble - they are not analogous. Taking MSFT as an example, they have continued to increase profitability over the years despite largely missing out on major technological trends of the last few years. The stock has not performed only because of the gross overvaluation before. This is what I mean when I talk about a company being so large and profitable that it is hard to take them down, even after getting outdone by competition and making huge blunders and endless product flops. 

Sony had a lot of products but nothing tying them together or making it difficult for consumers to switch to alternatives. Televisions are basically a screen. They are easy to commoditize. There is no meaningful interaction with a television apart from pointing a remote at it. The content displayed is the same whatever you choose. Products that provide meaningful, pleasing interaction with the user are much harder to commoditize - PCs, smartphones, tablets, automobiles. And there is also the brand - Apple's brand is immensely trusted and valuable in and of itself.

I still don't believe Apple's ecosystem can be touched. It's not about a phone or a tablet. It's about a phone, tablet, computer, wearable, car, home, health info, payment system all working together flawlessly under one system, all connected securely with biometrics. That, I believe, is the not-so-distant future of the Apple ecosystem. It's going to be extremely difficult to offer a competitive alternative, and if alternatives do exist, Apple will likely still take the top, most profitable end of the market as they always do.

As long as Apple continues to lead technological trends, they are safe in my mind. Even the wearables sector only really took off after rumours about the iWatch. People will say Apple joined late to the party, but anybody following closely will see that Samsung, Motorola, etc. are coming out with wearables in an attempt to compete with what they think Apple might put out. These are not designed with the consumer in mind, they're designed as an answer to a perceived threat. As long as Apple continues its consumer-centric focus and competitors follow Apple, I have zero concern. Apple is never first to market, but they create massive markets due to groundbreaking products. 

Having said all this, I understand the philosophy of not betting on one horse. There is always inherent risk in it, but one I am willing to take.


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> As I specified, Apple's market cap makes sense and is completely fairly valued, if not undervalued. Microsoft had a P/E of 70 during the dot com bubble - they are not analogous. Taking MSFT as an example, they have continued to increase profitability over the years despite largely missing out on major technological trends of the last few years. The stock has not performed only because of the gross overvaluation before. This is what I mean when I talk about a company being so large and profitable that it is hard to take them down, even after getting outdone by competition and making huge blunders and endless product flops.
> 
> Sony had a lot of products but nothing tying them together or making it difficult for consumers to switch to alternatives. Televisions are basically a screen. They are easy to commoditize. There is no meaningful interaction with a television apart from pointing a remote at it. The content displayed is the same whatever you choose. Products that provide meaningful, pleasing interaction with the user are much harder to commoditize - PCs, smartphones, tablets, automobiles. And there is also the brand - Apple's brand is immensely trusted and valuable in and of itself.
> 
> I still don't believe Apple's ecosystem can be touched. It's not about a phone or a tablet. It's about a phone, tablet, computer, wearable, car, home, health info, payment system all working together flawlessly under one system, all connected securely with biometrics. That, I believe, is the not-so-distant future of the Apple ecosystem. It's going to be extremely difficult to offer a competitive alternative, and if alternatives do exist, Apple will likely still take the top, most profitable end of the market as they always do.
> 
> As long as Apple continues to lead technological trends, they are safe in my mind. Even the wearables sector only really took off after rumours about the iWatch. People will say Apple joined late to the party, but anybody following closely will see that Samsung, Motorola, etc. are coming out with wearables in an attempt to compete with what they think Apple might put out. These are not designed with the consumer in mind, they're designed as an answer to a perceived threat. As long as Apple continues its consumer-centric focus and competitors follow Apple, I have zero concern. Apple is never first to market, but they create massive markets due to groundbreaking products.
> 
> Having said all this, I understand the philosophy of not betting on one horse. There is always inherent risk in it, but one I am willing to take.


one more small thing and i will let you have the last word

as i say i have used countless apple products since 1989, their ipods, pc, phones, the newton, laptops, everything, i think they are the most elegant hardware maker in the world ... i have now willingly locked myself into their ecosystem because i am getting older and can no longer deal with cross-linking and syncing across different os's ... if the 5.5 iphone doesn't break the bank i am probably in

from and investment point of view (an aesthetic or collectors or users point of view is different) i would beware of having _faith_ in any one company as strong as yours is in apple ... especially ... a technology company

the history of technology is one of disruption and destruction ... the list of absolutely great tech companies that have gone under is long

it's easy to forget that when you are in love with a company

find a good etf and own them all


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## GOB

Triple digits and all-time highs. Much more to come this fall (product-wise) and the years ahead (stock-wise). 

Not sure what the stop will do at this point. It could keep going or it could take a breather but I don't see too much downside. Institutional buying is still quite low and fundamentals and shareholder friendliness is much stronger now. This is not the same as 2012. There are some catalysts that could cause a sell-off though (eg. non-sapphire iPhone screen)

Long shares and a little more cautious on options for now.


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## Video_Frank

GOB said:


> ... Apple's ecosystem backed by a $160B cash hoard and continuous R&D.


I would not say that Apple is a huge R&D company. (source)


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## GOB

If you look at historical expenditure, you may be correct (although investment is rapidly growing now). If you look at output, you are incorrect. Apple has been very efficient with their R&D and have unquestionably produced game-changing products as a result of that R&D. 

$4 billion and rapidly growing isn't a lot of R&D to you? Or are you talking about ten years ago, which has no relevance to my statement?


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## Video_Frank

With reference to the graph at the bottom of the page, Samsung, Microsoft and Intel each spend roughly 2x what Apple does on R&D (2013 numbers).


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## GOB

To me, R&D isn't a race to spend money. It's a mechanism to produce quality products. Adequate investment is certainly a critical input to the R&D process but when we are talking billions of dollars there is a vast difference in how effectively the funds can be used. If you think Microsoft has been out innovating Apple or are better at R&D because they spend more...I don't know what to say. 

You also have to take industry into account. Intel's business requires ridiculous amounts of R&D dollars to fund development of their processors. Samsung has so many products and business lines that it makes sense they are one of the top R&D spenders (though I don't see much resulting from it, as they copy competitors from smartphones to TVs to vacuum cleaners).

My comment about R&D basically means that Apple is incredibly good at churning out hit products and they are spending far more than they ever have on it. Nowhere in my comment did I compare Apple's R&D spend to anyone else, because it's simply not relevant.


----------



## Pluto

For those with open mind to a dash of technical analysis, it looks like aapl has formed a huge cup over two years. It is now possibly forming the handle of that cup during which remaining weak holders get shaken out. Once it clears its sept 2 price, it should go for a really nice run up.


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## peterk

I never thought I'd pay $250 for naked pictures of Katniss... but it looks like I did just that on Wednesday! :eek2:


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## indexxx

No Aapl comments yet? 

I think the payment system could do big things. 'Watch' will sell huge. And happy birthday to me!


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## wert

indexxx said:


> No Aapl comments yet?
> 
> I think the payment system could do big things. 'Watch' will sell huge. And happy birthday to me!


I agree. The hardware is OK, but payment system is something that we may look back on as something huge. Bank of Apple?


----------



## SkyFall

it was quite an interesting day


----------



## brad

Yes, I think the payment system is possibly the biggest thing they announced today, although nobody else has succeeded in similar ventures. Apple could be the first to make it work; I wouldn't be surprised.

The watch looks great, but the dealbreaker for many (myself included) is that it requires an iPhone. There are millions of iPhone users of course, and many of them will buy the watch. And the watch looks like it does far more, and does it better, than any other "smart watch" currently available. But requiring an iPhone cuts out a huge potential segment of the market. Eventually the watch will become the phone, but we're not there yet.

Stock price went down of course, as it always does after these new product announcements. It'll probably fall even further next year when they announce new record-breaking iPhone sales and tens of millions of watches sold. ;-)


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## gibor365

brad said:


> Stock price went down of course, as it always does after these new product announcements. It'll probably fall even further next year when they announce new record-breaking iPhone sales and tens of millions of watches sold. ;-)


yeap, usual pattern  I thing our American friends expect AAPL will announce "perpetual motion machine ", and selling AAPL didn't


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## SkyFall

I think imma play the swing with the announce of units sold on Iphone 6 and iWatch


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## andrewf

Apple finally (!) adopting NFC will mean that we will likely see retailers finally deploy infrastructure to process NFC payments. It's been happening, but slowly. I don't see any reason why AAPL would own NFC payments--I don't think they will be able to lock in retailers to only process iPay transactions....


I still think that smart watches will have relatively low uptake for the near future. Maybe once they become compelling that non-early adopters are willing to shell out for them.

I think the big thing is their decision to finally follow to market and sell phones in the sizes consumers want. They are removing a big reason for consumers to abandon iPhone by making larger devices with decent sized batteries.


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## braintootired

I saw the Apple watch video, and I was impressed. Of course my heart sank when I heard the tech demoing say the words "requires iPhone".

One of the biggest reasons the Android smartwatches failed is because they don't work without being paired with a phone. One of them doesn't even tell time unless it's paired.

Hopefully the Apple watch can still do most of the things we need it to do without an iPhone paired up.


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## m3s

I didn't expect to be interested in the watch, but the video is well done and I think it will sell. When you get an alert, it's hard not to pull out the phone just to see what it was. Whereas the watch you can quickly glimpse and dismiss it. I'd stopped wearing a watch when I first got a smartphone but I eventually went back to reduce the time spent looking at the phone.

I think it could be a step in a better direction for the smartphone generation. I also think it makes complete sense to pair it to a phone, and to pair to iPhone only. Apple's biggest advantage is how smooth all the products sync. I don't see how it could possibly sync to other platforms and provide the same experience. Also I'm sure there are many uses we haven't seen yet.


----------



## fatcat

braintootired said:


> I saw the Apple watch video, and I was impressed. Of course my heart sank when I heard the tech demoing say the words "requires iPhone".
> 
> One of the biggest reasons the Android smartwatches failed is because they don't work without being paired with a phone. One of them doesn't even tell time unless it's paired.
> 
> Hopefully the Apple watch can still do most of the things we need it to do without an iPhone paired up.


i had the same reaction when i heard the iPhone required bit

that just strikes me as more technology, when i'm after less technology and more robust technology not yet _another_ device to charge and sync

i saw all those icons on the little tiny screen and i thought oh brother how am i gonna navigate all those icons ?

looks too complicated and there is no way i want to add another device to my daily arsenal of tech


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## andrewf

How many people will shell out $400 and up for it, though? No carrier subsidies, either...


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## liquidfinance

andrewf said:


> How many people will shell out $400 and up for it, though? No carrier subsidies, either...


When you consider the price people will pay for a watch that does nothing more than tell the time I would guess many millions of people will buy them.


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## gibor365

liquidfinance said:


> When you consider the price people will pay for a watch that does nothing more than tell the time I would guess many millions of people will buy them.


good one  how much cost Rolex and what it does?! Some people buy it only to show status


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## Butters

GPS sport watches cost over $200 bucks. This will be popular for sure!


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## brad

I think it'll be like the original iPod and the iPad: the initial reaction for most people is meh, why would I want one of those, but when you actually start seeing them out and about, being used, or you have a chance to try one, you want one. At least that's how it worked for me. I was a big skeptic about both the iPod and the iPad -- I figured both would bomb and I couldn't understand why anyone would want one, until I had a chance to play with them and suddenly it all made sense.

I do think the watch has a few strikes against it, though: as others have mentioned, most people nowadays don't wear anything on their wrists and are not in the habit of carrying a watch. Their phone serves as their watch. But in this case they'd have both a phone and the watch. It's a niche product, but we'll just have to see how big the niche is.


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## jcgd

We aren't supposed to have phones on us in construction these days. But we are allowed to have watches...


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## brad

jcgd said:


> We aren't supposed to have phones on us in construction these days. But we are allowed to have watches...


I don't think you'd want to wear an Apple Watch for construction work, though, although I guess the "sport" model might work (http://www.apple.com/ca/watch/apple-watch-sport/) or the standard "watch" version: http://www.apple.com/ca/watch/apple-watch/. The "edition" model is more like a fashion accessory, they even offer them in gold: http://www.apple.com/ca/watch/apple-watch-edition/


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## Pluto

andrewf said:


> How many people will shell out $400 and up for it, though? No carrier subsidies, either...


That's what I thought about the original IPod's.

When one considers the health component...Hmmm. Lot of aging boomers watching Dr. OZ. Wait until Dr. OZ weighs in on it.


----------



## brad

Pluto said:


> That's what I thought about the original IPod's.
> 
> When one considers the health component...Hmmm. Lot of aging boomers watching Dr. OZ. Wait until Dr. OZ weighs in on it.


Not just that, but the 78.6 million Americans who are officially classified as obese: many of them have tried every diet and exercise program available but haven't found something they can stick with long-term. Many of them may be willing to try anything that could work, and the watch may be attractive in that regard. I lost about 15 pounds last year by using a Fitbit without changing my diet (at least not consciously changing my diet), and the Fitbit helped me stay motivated to walk and exercise every day. I wouldn't belittle the motivation factor of having something that constantly reminds you how you're tracking against your goals.


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## gibor365

Pluto said:


> That's what I thought about the original IPod's.
> 
> When one considers the health component...Hmmm. Lot of aging boomers watching Dr. OZ. Wait until Dr. OZ weighs in on it.


Exactly the point! Now it's a big "health" trend in the world... If even lazy bum like myself started running every day and considering buying iWatch (even though with 1.80 height and 90 kg cannot say that I'm obess ), imho this product will be very popular... 
and soon Xmas season ...
In BRICS countries it also should be popular as shows high status of ppl who wear it....


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## gibor365

To tell the truth, I'd like to see iWatch can measure blood pressure, holesterol, sucar level etc


----------



## brad

gibor said:


> Exactly the point! Now it's a big "health" trend in the world... If even lazy bum like myself started running every day and considering buying iWatch


But wait, the Apple Watch will be made in China, and we know how you feel about products made in China. In fact almost all Apple products are made in China. ;-)


----------



## humble_pie

do you think it might shake down to something like this:

the under-30s will buy goPros for their bicycles, snow boards, skate boards, motorcycles, race cars, surf boards, scuba dives & slalom skis;

the over-40s are going to want apple watches that can monitor their BPs, blood sugars, cholesterols, C-reactive proteins, transient ischemic attacks & cardiac arrhythmias.


----------



## brad

humble_pie said:


> the over-40s are going to want apple watches that can monitor their BPs, blood sugars, cholesterols, C-reactive proteins, transient ischemic attacks & cardiac arrhythmias.


Maybe, but the over-40s are also going to buy Google Glasses so they can read the tiny displays on their Apple Watches.

So this is a "buy" for GoPro, Apple, and Google. ;-)


----------



## humble_pie

as jane fonda bravely said, what with her new titanium hips, knees, mastectomy, wig & whatevers, there was hardly an original part of her left


----------



## gibor365

brad said:


> Maybe, but the over-40s are also going to buy Google Glasses so they can read the tiny displays on their Apple Watches.
> 
> So this is a "buy" for GoPro, Apple, and Google. ;-)


No need for glasses, as it should tell you your results (like iPod nano does)


----------



## gibor365

brad said:


> But wait, the Apple Watch will be made in China, and we know how you feel about products made in China. In fact almost all Apple products are made in China. ;-)


Nor sure where...
_Apple also revealed that the Taiwanese company Hon Hai Precision Industry—commonly known as Foxconn—owns assembly plants for iPhones and iPads. 
Criticism of working conditions at Hon Hai has put pressure on Apple to increase transparency about where its products are made.

There is one assembly plant located in the U.S., which is owned by the Taiwanese company Quanta Computer, that assembles Mac Computers._


----------



## Pluto

Recent claim in media that aapl is, due to apple pay, now a regulated financial services company. don't know if that is good or bad.


----------



## fatcat

based on their recent product offering i would say apple is pretty good short ..

the iPhone-6 is an excellent phone but not spectacular
the watch is a brand new category that, unlike a phone, is a completely optional and unnecessary bit of technology

apple pay might turn out to be a big winner but once again, it has limited traction to the subset of iphone owners and then the subset that own the newer phones

if i was a betting man i would say apple is great short right now

though they just popped up and are pushing my qqq up nicely at the moment


----------



## andrewf

Short Apple? I think that is crazy. Apple was overvalued two years ago when I was expressing doubts. These days it is amongst the cheaper socks in the admittedly richly valued S&P.


----------



## gibor365

_apple pay might turn out to be a big winner but once again, it has limited traction to the subset of iphone owners and then the subset that own the newer phones_ it has a huge potential in emerging countries


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Short Apple? I think that is crazy. Apple was overvalued two years ago when I was expressing doubts. These days it is amongst the cheaper socks in the admittedly richly valued S&P.


it is certainly an outlier of a bet
but i think the iwatch is so-so
it may be the best watch but this is not a category that is going to garner wide appeal
the phones are very good but there are android phones coming out every month that compare favorably
look at the new moto-x
and you can bet apple pay will be met with serious competition
it would be a risky play but i think worth the risk


----------



## james4beach

I've made good money shorting stocks in the past. I would not short AAPL.

You _never_ short a stock that's making new all time highs. The previous split-adjusted high was around $100 and we're back around there now (has exceeded $100)

One weird thing about AAPL though is the steadily declining trading volume on it. Normally a popular momentum stock in a bull run will exhibit strong volume, but AAPL doesn't. Then again, the entire stock market is like this so declining volume isn't specific to AAPL.


----------



## fatcat

i don't give a hoot about their stock price
i am interested in their product line that generates revenue

the iphone 6 and the iwatch are both technically well done but nothing special

i read today that there is talk about apple becoming a bank
apple pay is a sign that they are becoming a _lifestyle_ company because they know that hardware growth is going to be a hard slog in the future

this means they are like an ocean liner shifting direction, it's a big deal
and like all companies that reinvent themselves it has lots of risk

they will be playing with all kinds of people in the pay space and banking space

the watch is a niche product (please don't tell me about the ipod and ipad which are in completely different information consumption categories from watches)
watches have largely failed to catch on and what apple has done has not changed that

they want you to spend $400 to move information from the iphone in your pocket 2 feet to the watch on your wrist and you have to charge it every freaking day ...


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> apple pay is a sign that they are becoming a _lifestyle_ company because they know that hardware growth is going to be a hard slog in the future


Didn't iTunes signal that diversification years ago? They even changed their name from Apple Computer to Apple because they didn't consider themselves a hardware company anymore. That was in 2007. The ocean liner has been turning for a long time.


----------



## doctrine

I think you'd be insane to short AAPL. They've sold out of their most expensive phone within hours of pre-sale starting - who knows how many billions in revenue they made in just hours. This is not a sign of a company in trouble. Also look at how many shares they bought back at 30-40% lower share prices - excellent timing.


----------



## fatcat

doctrine said:


> I think you'd be insane to short AAPL. They've sold out of their most expensive phone within hours of pre-sale starting - who knows how many billions in revenue they made in just hours. This is not a sign of a company in trouble. Also look at how many shares they bought back at 30-40% lower share prices - excellent timing.


i never intended to imply that shorting apple would be a rational or non-risky move :biggrin:

i just think this is a company that generates so much razzle dazzle and expectations are always very high and their stock moves based on their product offerings

that the iphone sold out immediately means absolutely nothing, they probably engineer that from the git-go (by deliberately under stocking, any sane company does that nowadays to get the buzz) and there are plenty of people phone shopping

this struck me, as a long time (since 87) apple watcher and user (mac mini, ipod touch, apple tv, ipad air and iphone 4s) as one of their more lackluster "big" product rollouts

the phones are fine, well done and beautiful but the market is daily/weekly/monthly flooded with very good looking phones
and the watch while maybe the best watch, really is not a product that will gain mass appeal

i see this as a stumble on apple's part and apple fans always have expectations set very high

though i agree that this is a company with huge and diverse assets

i buy all my phones outright and use prepaid, i sold a moto-g and bought an iphone 4s
if i wanted a new phone, i would buy an nexus-5 for $350 well and long before i would buy an iphone-6 for $859 dollars

i am not typical of course because most buy on contract

i just think that the android assault is showing no signs of stopping, they are putting out better and better phones for less and less money, that has to begin to put a dent in at some point

not to mention that about 10 different watches are out there as well


----------



## Pluto

Well fatcat, its good to have some dissent so we can rethink what we may not have been aware of. I think you made a good case for this being not the most spectacular product roll outs. Its not impossible this is the last hurrah for a long while. maybe something like how MSFT's growth rate petered out after many upgrades to its products. Even so, it is not a short. If you want something to short, I think TSLA is a screaming short. Apparently the Alibaba ipo has precipitated some selling to raise cash to then buy Alibaba. It could be that the TESLA players will start dumping it to hop on the Alibaba train.


----------



## fatcat

for once in this thread, i'll try make a short post. ...
this from an android site but i think their point is quite valid
notice the difference in design approaches between the apple watch and the google watch
to my eye the google design is far cleaner, easier to read and simpler
apple has *not* reinvented the watch this time

http://phandroid.com/2014/09/11/apple-watch-ui-vs-android-wear-ui/


----------



## GOB

> the iPhone-6 is an excellent phone but not spectacular


It builds on what was considered the best phone on the market with two major selling points - Apple Pay and bigger displays. I'm probably in the minority by being happy with my 4" screen, but I always advocated that Apple follow the market trend and offer bigger phones (though eliminating the 4" altogether may prove a mistake). Any market research study shows that the demand for the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus is off the charts. iPhone sales have been growing despite the fact that they stayed away from big screens - imagine the growth ahead and the number of people who are going to switch from Android.



> the watch is a brand new category that, unlike a phone, is a completely optional and unnecessary bit of technology


It's a brand new category that can only boost Apple's earnings, not lower them. Even if the Apple Watch is a flop I'm not sure it translates to a good short of the stock because there is so much else going on for it. Be careful about labelling technology as unnecessary. Smartphones and tablets were once unnecessary, and remember that this is a first generation product with a ton of potential improvements in future years. 



> apple pay might turn out to be a big winner but once again, it has limited traction to the subset of iphone owners and then the subset that own the newer phones


It looks like a big winner to me. The number of partnerships Apple has secured is incredible and is a recipe for quick adoption. Hopefully they can roll it to other countries soon. Here in Canada much of the infrastructure is already in place, with most retailers offering NFC terminals. Limited traction? It will be available to 200 million iPhone 5/5s owners if they purchase the Apple Watch (a great business move). It will also be available to owners of what will be the most popular smartphone in the world. It will probably sell around 100 million units in the next six months. That to me sounds like a huge initial market that is only to grow massively. The fact that banks and credit card companies are happy about Apple Pay is huge. If everybody on the payments side is happy, Apple is happy, and customers get a dead easy way to securely pay for transactions with their phone, Apple Pay is going to be a huge hit. 




> but i think the iwatch is so-so
> it may be the best watch but this is not a category that is going to garner wide appeal


The Apple Watch is probably the best smart watch on the market, and has amazing fit and finish that is going to attract discretionary buyers. I will grant you that the completeness of the device is still lacking - it's a bit thick, battery life will not be that great and sensor capabilities are rather basic. However, it is a first gen product. Think about the original iPhone and how it differs from the iPhone 6. Imagine the same magnitude of changes to the Apple Watch over the years. Apple has hired many experts in the sensor field and you can bet it wasn't all for a heart rate sensor. Amazing things are coming and this category is going to become a big one. 



> the phones are very good but there are android phones coming out every month that compare favorably
> look at the new moto-x


Well, this argument has been going since before the original iPhone was ever launched. Just Google "iPhone killer" and you'll see articles about hundreds of phones that were supposed to spell the doom of the iPhone. Sorry if I'm skeptical about this point, but the 1000th time will not be the charm. Specs can always be compared and beaten, but nothing compares to iOS and services like Touch ID, Apple Pay, FaceTime, iMessage. 



> and you can bet apple pay will be met with serious competition


It will not be easy to get the deals that Apple has with banks and credit card companies. Apple has been planning this for a long time - the Touch ID, secure enclave, tokenization. No phone on the market can offer this right now. Fingerprint swipers are so much harder to use that just a touch. I doubt the banks will readily trust Android with security. 




> the iphone 6 and the iwatch are both technically well done but nothing special


Is there a smartphone or smart watch on the market that is special in your mind and how so? 



> i read today that there is talk about apple becoming a bank
> apple pay is a sign that they are becoming a _lifestyle_ company because they know that hardware growth is going to be a hard slog in the future


Apple Pay is a great way to attract people to the iOS ecosystem and lock them in. It doesn't signal a departure from their current business, but an expansion that further strengthens it. 




> the watch is a niche product (please don't tell me about the ipod and ipad which are in completely different information consumption categories from watches)
> watches have largely failed to catch on and what apple has done has not changed that


Many product categories have been niche until Apple entered the fold. I would be weary about making such proclamations before it's even on the market and we can see how it sells. I am personally waiting until at least the second generation device to make any judgements about the wearable product category. There is a ton of potential.



> they want you to spend $400 to move information from the iphone in your pocket 2 feet to the watch on your wrist and you have to charge it every freaking day ...




And I bet millions will. And millions more will spend a lot more than that for the gold watches. You know, some of the most expensive watches have to be wound every day. The Apple Watch blends the line between technology and jewelry - it will be interesting to see how the market feels about it.


----------



## Causalien

fatcat said:


> for once in this thread, i'll try make a short post. ...
> this from an android site but i think their point is quite valid
> notice the difference in design approaches between the apple watch and the google watch
> to my eye the google design is far cleaner, easier to read and simpler
> apple has *not* reinvented the watch this time
> 
> http://phandroid.com/2014/09/11/apple-watch-ui-vs-android-wear-ui/


I actually haven't followed tech for a while and just visiting after the iWatch announcement. Thanks to Fatcat I will probably be getting an android watch. However, the attraction of iWatch for me is in their different interchangeable bands. If Android has them, then I am sold. I am especially interested in the mesh band. 

The other problem with android is, I've walked a big part of the world now. I have never seen any shop that showcases these watch that I can just walk in and try on. Heck, I heard about them from Fatcat in a money forum for Canada.


----------



## andrewf

Apple seems to have nailed the band. The actual device and software interface is pretty underwhelming. I can't imagine Jobs approving a dial for zooming the display.


----------



## GOB

It actually makes far more sense than using pinch to zoom on such a tiny screen. It will also reduce the amount of fingerprints getting on it. It's hard to say without actually trying it out, but I think it's a step in the right direction for wearable UI.

The dial is not just for zooming, it's for scrolling between options etc. Kind of like the iPod click/scrollwheel. I can't think of a better way to navigate such a small device off the top of my head. 

I do agree that the bands are phenomenal, but I was also expecting a "nicer" device. It seems a little thick, but I expect significant improvements in future generations. Some of the combinations look very, very nice. Others not so much, but that is the beauty of having so many options on this type of device.

Until I see/use it in the flesh though, I will take on board the impressions of people in the know:



> What he liked: (I quote)
> 
> The overall level of design in the Apple Watch simply blows away anything – digital or analog – in the watch space at $350… The Apple Watch feels like a lot of thought went into it, and no doubt it did. It feels expensive.
> 
> I’m sure there was much discussion about making it larger – how could there not be? It would’ve made the entire interface bigger, bolder, more recognizable from afar and easier to use. The fact that they chose to actually make the thing wearable shows a great deal of restraint.
> 
> The fact that Apple chose to develop two faces dedicated to the cosmos shows they are, at the very least, aware of the origins and importance of the earliest timekeeping machines, and the governing body of all time and space – the universe.
> 
> Further, they kept the crown. Okay, so it’s a “digital crown” on the Apple Watch, but for a company founded by a man known for his distaste of buttons and switches, the fact that they kept the original horological control center says something.
> 
> No watch from Switzerland comes with this many choices of finishes, and in a world where every industry is splitting hairs…, it only makes sense to offer the chance for people to obsess of the details.
> 
> Apple absolutely, positively, indisputably NAILED its straps and bracelets. In addition to offering a bevy of options from leather to fluoroelastomer to link bracelets to Milanese, it is here that you really see how much attention Apple was paying to the way people wear watches, and the how bad existing options were.
> 
> What he didn’t like:
> 
> Emotion, or lack thereof: What makes the millions of us that would never trade a Rolex in for an Apple is the emotion brought about by our watches – the fact that they are so timeless, so lasting, so personal… My watches will last for generations, this Apple Watch will last for five years, if we’re lucky.
> 
> The cuff test: The Apple Watch doesn’t fit under my shirt cuff without serious effort, if at all. I believe that great design should not disrupt daily life, and a watch that doesn’t fit under a shirt sleeve is missing something.
> 
> Digital watches are for nerds: The Apple Watch is an incredible piece of engineering, no doubt. It is still not as cool as a mechanical watch, to real people. This might change with time, but my feeling is that not any time soon will a digital wristwatch, no matter what it’s capable of, be considered “cool…” At the end of the day, I don’t see people that love beautiful things wearing this with any great regularity.
> 
> Unproven autonomy: The biggest concern those in the mainstream press have with the actual functionality of the Apple Watch is that it must be tethered to an iPhone. Does that mean, if you were to go for a jog, that the iPhone has to come with? During yesterday’s hands-on session we asked that directly to Apple PR, and they didn’t have an answer at that moment.
> 
> Market leader in a category no one really asked for: The Apple Watch is absolutely the best smart watch on the planet. That much I’m sure of. But are we sure that wearable technology is something we really want?


Some fair points on both sides of the fence.

http://fortune.com/2014/09/11/a-real-watch-guys-take-on-the-apple-watch/


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Apple seems to have nailed the band. The actual device and software interface is pretty underwhelming. I can't imagine Jobs approving a dial for zooming the display.


precisely ... jobs would have shut that thing down in a heartbeat ... apple has released a "me too" product ...

this is just too much:
View attachment 1801


plus, charging every day ? seriously ? ... and the real deal killer is that the damn doesn't work unless you have your iphone with you, this is just crazy ... why would anyone except a dedicated nerd carry both when they duplicate the exact same information ? 

i really doubt that the "normals" will ... my sister (a "normal") called me because she said the apple kept asking her for her password and she knew she was entering it right and apple wouldn't let her sign in ... turned out she was trying to sign in to an app she just downloaded that had nothing to do with apple !

this is a niche product, it will sell and it will improve but this will impacts apple's bottom line by not a lot

the payment move signals the future of apple .. they are trying to be the privacy and trust company for photos, messaging, payments and so on, they just hired a bunch of fashion people and designers ... they are going to be a lifestyle company

hardware is going to be a touch slog for apple and they know it


----------



## jcgd

I think the dial is weird. They should have made it so you can run your finger up one side of the watch to scroll and tap it to select or whatever.


----------



## GOB

Apple just *increased* the price of their already high-margin iPhone. It's always a tough slog but Apple continues to grow iPhone sales very successfully. Carriers are fighting with each other to put these expensive iPhones in the hands of consumers and they are going to succeed. Like every year before it, this will be the most successful line in history, except this time ASPs are going to increase as well. Of course growth is not longer going to be in the triple digits, it might even be single digits in the longer term, but when you're talking about hundreds of millions of high-margin devices, that is more than enough to add billions to the bottom line. 

You are right that Apple is moving into sevices more and more. It just makes sense. It doesn't mean their hardware business is failing. Apple will always be differentiated because there is iOS (Apple) and Android (everyone else). The price wars are going to predominantly be on the Android side. 

I'm pretty sure the Apple Watch is going to contribute significantly to Apple's bottom line, as well.


----------



## Causalien

Just looked through all the apple products. Iphone 6 looks cheap. The only thing I want is the mesh watch band and the sports watch band. But the sports watch band defeats the purpose if I have to bring my iphone with me. It's a heavy lump of brick when running.

I will probably end up buying a mesh band and wait for an android watch that can fit it.
Long google instead of short apple play.


----------



## GOB

I believe Android Wear devices also requiring pairing to smartphones for any cellular related information (texting, calling, internet etc.) If you want those on the run you'd have to bring your android phone with you as well, which is probably a lot bulkier than an iPhone. 

There is no magic breakthrough yet for battery life. If you want a watch that is fully functional without a smartphone it's going to be massive and have atrocious battery life, be it iOS or Android Wear. 

If you're long Google because the Apple Watch requires pairing with an iPhone, that is an extremely flawed thesis.


----------



## andrewf

Is hard to really compare Apple watch to the android competition. For one it is not a real product yet... We have to wait another six months to try it out in the wild. There will likely be another round of revisions on the android wear side in that time, and the new version of android that enables many smart watch features is going to be released in a month or two. I think Google had the right idea with a simple, intuitive interface that doesn't try to do too much. I mean, are people really going to be scrolling through their photo album on their wrist while their phone is in their pocket? Google is focusing on voice activation and swipes. Apple has a confusing combination of a scroll wheel, two buttons, and two different kinds of touches, swipes and voice activation. I hope Apple takes their next six months of development to rework the interface somewhat.


----------



## fatcat

apple knows what sony, panasonic, toshiba, samsung and lg know about televsions
tv sales are in the crapper because they are now so good that people see no reason to upgrade

smartphones are not quite over but almost _over_ ... battery life and charging does still have a good way to go in terms of innovation ... 

the iphone-6 is a very good phone, ok, i'll call it a great phone but the m8 and moto-x both give apple a good run for their money 
unlike previous iphones the 6 has not put any real distance between itself and its competitors which are coming on stronger and stronger

phones which are limited by human physiology in terms of size, ppi, sound and so on are rapidly approaching commodity status, just like tv's ... 350 ppi vs 480 ppi ? ... who cares ? 130 grams vs 119 grams ? who cares ? speed, weight, screens, size, cameras are all reaching a point of washout where the average consumer cannot tell nor cares about the difference

who even cares any more about brand when they buy a tv ? ... sony, panasonic, toshiba ... whatever, pick one, they all make tv's so good that brand doesn't matter

apple faces the same fate as sony, hardware commoditization ... and look what has happened to sony

software and services are all that is left and in that arena apple has some serious competition from even microsoft whose software is years ahead of apple and especially from google whose web services are way ahead

apple software is mediocre at best and their web services are utter crap, icloud compared to google docs and drive (and even office 365 which is very good) aren't even in the same universe

digital payments and nfc are going to see all kinds of serious competitors to apple

apple is a giant ship about to make a turn into uncharted and unfriendly waters


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Is hard to really compare Apple watch to the android competition. For one it is not a real product yet... We have to wait another six months to try it out in the wild. There will likely be another round of revisions on the android wear side in that time, and the new version of android that enables many smart watch features is going to be released in a month or two. I think Google had the right idea with a simple, intuitive interface that doesn't try to do too much. I mean, are people really going to be scrolling through their photo album on their wrist while their phone is in their pocket? Google is focusing on voice activation and swipes. Apple has a confusing combination of a scroll wheel, two buttons, and two different kinds of touches, swipes and voice activation. I hope Apple takes their next six months of development to rework the interface somewhat.


what they really need to do is uncouple it from the iphone so it works independently and give it a weeks battery life and then they have a new category killer ... until then it's just another watch among many


----------



## Causalien

Why didn't any of these idiots put the lithium ion polymer battery in the band. It's a no brainer.


----------



## GOB

Apple has the strongest hardware, software and services ecosystem out of anybody and it's not even close. It is absolutely laughable to compare iPhones to TVs. iPhones run iOS and no other smartphone does. That cannot be commoditized. As long as people continue to prefer iOS over Android, Apple has little to worry about. Add services like Touch ID and Apple Pay, HealthKit and HomeKit and you have a rock solid ecosystem that people are not going to leave without very good reason. Comparing this to a sony TV or Walkman is just ridiculous. 

The Moto or HTC phones may be good but that doesn't even even matter. It's Apple and Samsung at the top end of the market. It speaks to the strength of a brand that supposedly good phones are failing epically in the marketplace. If the HTC and Moto phones do take off you can be sure that it will affect Samsung far more than it does Apple. Apple continues to beat Android at the top end of the market, and iOS 8 and all the new services are only going to strengthen their position. 

Google does have some great software, but they also offer it on iOS devices. It's not a reason to buy a Google or Android device. I use Google Drive on my iPhone. And while I admit some of Apple's software leaves a lot to be desired, their operating systems are top notch and far above the competition. The combination of iOS, beautiful hardware and services that people actually use is what keeps Apple ahead of the game. 

You are completely right about specs becoming irrelevant. Guess which vendors and fan base seem to care about specs? Apple is at the bottom of that list - it's all about the experience, not the number of pixels or processing cores.


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> what they really need to do is uncouple it from the iphone so it works independently and give it a weeks battery life and then they have a new category killer ... until then it's just another watch among many


They might as well work on a time machine, since that's probably more technologically feasible. Unbelievable.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Apple has the strongest hardware, software and services ecosystem out of anybody and it's not even close. It is absolutely laughable to compare iPhones to TVs. iPhones run iOS and no other smartphone does. That cannot be commoditized. As long as people continue to prefer iOS over Android, Apple has little to worry about.





> Research firm Gartner estimates that the number of Android devices – which comprises PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones – shipped in 2014 will reach 1.1 billion in 2014, a 26 per cent increase on 2013.
> 
> *The increase seems to be driven by pricing*, with Annette Zimmerman, principal analyst at Gartner, claiming there is a “volume versus value equation”, with Android users also purchasing lower-cost devices compared to Apple users.
> 
> “Android holds the largest number of installed-base devices, with 1.9 billion in use in 2014, compared with 682 million iOS/Mac OS installed-base devices,” she added.


android is on many more devices than apple, you need to check your facts ..



> Add services like Touch ID and Apple Pay, HealthKit and HomeKit and you have a rock solid ecosystem that people are not going to leave without very good reason. Comparing this to a sony TV or Walkman is just ridiculous.


every single one of those products has massive competition from many different manufacturers 



> It is absolutely laughable to compare iPhones to TVs.


hardly, every single major mass market technological device from the toaster to the telephone has ultimately been commoditized ... it's a law, it _must_ happen because demand brings big money and big money is motivated to copy and imitate the market leader and eventually the market leader falls, look at xerox, kodak, ford, sony ... i could go on all day ... the smartphone is just a piece of technology



> The Moto or HTC phones may be good but that doesn't even even matter. It's Apple and Samsung at the top end of the market. It speaks to the strength of a brand that supposedly good phones are failing epically in the marketplace.


what you seem to miss is that for every phone that fails on android there are 2 that take it's place, if the android manufacturers were giving up, you point would make sense, but far from giving up they are building phones that are better and better and rival apple in every major feature from the phone to the screen


> Google does have some great software, but they also offer it on iOS devices.


this is what i do, i use all apple devices and all google and microsoft software ... apple software ... itunes, iphoto, calendar, address book, safari are awful and each has about 5 competitors that are much better

and icloud ? seriously ? ... pages ? keynote ? numbers ? reminders ? mail ? ... have you lost your mind man ? this is just awful web services in every way ... office 365 and google drive just walk all over apple's web products



> it's all about the experience, not the number of pixels or processing cores.


it's only about experience for people that a) care and b) can afford it and i assure you that the number of people who don't care (or even understand the concept of "experience") but are driven but price far, far outnumber those that do ... and this is especially true in china and india

do you seriously think the chinese or indian government is going to sit back and let one american company dominate their markets ?

look at how they have reacted to microsoft .. they are not happy about big american companies owning the technology that runs their countries

andorid is an open system, anyone can use it and develop it and this has huge power



> They might as well work on a time machine, since that's probably more technologically feasible. Unbelievable.


my point exactly, these are niche products until there is some kind of technological breakthrough that allows them to go much longer and work much more easily

you think the normals are going to shell out $400 for a device that they need to charge every day that displays the exact same information they can get on their phone ... are you kidding me man ?

sure, the apple watch will sell to the techies but after that market is maxed, it will stall and flatline ... it is, as you say, technologically not a feasible product at this stage

apple is a fine company that makes great products but they are now standing at the bottom of a brand new and very steep hill


----------



## GOB

> android is on many more devices than apple, you need to check your facts ..


Absolutely, but that's not what I said. I'd prefer a Ferrari or a Tesla over what I have, doesn't mean I can get one. People buy Android not because they prefer to, but because it's what they can afford. I'm speaking in generalities here - there are of course exceptions with some high end Android devices. You only need to look at the success of the iPhone 4S (a 3 year old phone) in India to see how desirable iPhones are. The 4S is not on par tech-wise with even a middle-tier Android device, yet people still want it and are willing to pay a premium for it. It's because of brand, iOS, and ecosystem. All huge competitive advantages. 




> every single one of those products has massive competition from many different manufacturers


Virtually every singe business and product has competition, unless they are operating a monopoly. 



> hardly, every single major mass market technological device from the toaster to the telephone has ultimately been commoditized ... it's a law, it _must_ happen because demand brings big money and big money is motivated to copy and imitate the market leader and eventually the market leader falls, look at xerox, kodak, ford, sony ... i could go on all day ... the smartphone is just a piece of technology


It is certainly not law. You mention many examples but fail to mention a very obvious one - personal computers. Windows computers have been commoditized but Macs continue to command high ASPs and sales continue to grow. Why? Because there is a competitive advantage that only Macs can (legally) run OSX, and Apple has distinct advantages from design to customer support, not to mention their brand power which cannot be imitated. Do you see the similarities with iPhones/iOS? It's quite obvious, really. 



> what you seem to miss is that for every phone that fails on android there are 2 that take it's place, if the android manufacturers were giving up, you point would make sense, but far from giving up they are building phones that are better and better and rival apple in every major feature from the phone to the screen


Like I said, competition has always been there and will always be there. Apple can stay ahead as long as they don't get complacent, which I don't see them doing. In fact, the move to bigger screens and the overhaul to iOS encouraging more "openness" while maintaining security is a direct attack on Android. We will see the results shortly. 



> and icloud ? seriously ? ... pages ? keynote ? numbers ? reminders ? mail ? ... have you lost your mind man ? this is just awful web services in every way ... office 365 and google drive just walk all over apple's web products


iCloud is meant to operate in the background, it's not really a competitive service to Google Drive or Dropbox etc. It's meant to facilitate the transition between devices, which it does fairly well. Keynote is far better than Powerpoint in my opinion. No argument that Pages and Numbers are lacking in power compared to Word and Excel, but since you like to the bring the common user up, it's more than adequate for someone writing a basic report or preparing a simple budget. Most people do not have a clue how to use Excel, as powerful as it is. Anyway, this point is moot because OSX and iOS can run *all* of these services, which can only be a positive for the platforms. Nothing wrong with Safari, in my opinion. It's a great browser.



> it's only about experience for people that a) care and b) can afford it and i assure you that the number of people who don't care (or even understand the concept of "experience") but are driven but price far, far outnumber those that do ... and this is especially true in china and india


Yes, price matters. Apple does not play the race to the bottom. Your argument that everything gets commoditized is because of companies chasing this bottom end of the market, looking for short term success without realizing their long term demise. Apple avoids commoditization by maintaining their status as a premium brand that makes premium products. Apple's goal is not sell to everyone - it's to be a company that sells quality aspirational devices that people purchase or trade up to once they can afford it. They are succeeding wildly at this and will continue to do so as the middle class of highly populated nations such as China, India and Brazil will be growing at unprecedented levels. 



> do you seriously think the chinese or indian government is going to sit back and let one american company dominate their markets ?


In terms of market share, Apple will not dominate any market, so this is not a problem.




> you think the normals are going to shell out $400 for a device that they need to charge every day that displays the exact same information they can get on their phone ... are you kidding me man ?
> sure, the apple watch will sell to the techies but after that market is maxed, it will stall and flatline ... it is, as you say, technologically not a feasible product at this stage


I know a few "normals" who are very intrigued by the Apple Watch and plan to get it. These are people who iPhone 4S or 5 and have no intention of upgrading this year because they don't see a need for the 6, so they are certainly not techies. It wasn't long ago that people were paying $400 for an mp3 player, and even today people are spending hundreds, or thousands for watches that do nothing but tell the time. I have no idea what the initial sales will be like, but I won't be surprised with a high number. I remain cautiously optimistic on the Apple Watch, because I see a ton of potential in future iterations. 

Appreciate the discussion.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> People buy Android not because they prefer to, but because it's what they can afford. I'm speaking in generalities here - there are of course exceptions with some high end Android devices. You only need to look at the success of the iPhone 4S (a 3 year old phone) in India to see how desirable iPhones are. The 4S is not on par tech-wise with even a middle-tier Android device, yet people still want it and are willing to pay a premium for it. It's because of brand, iOS, and ecosystem. All huge competitive advantages.


People buy Android because they want the features of the Android device.
Look at any carrier, the cost of an iPhone or an Android phone is negligible ($100-200 on contract, even for the top end ones)

People buy Apple because of image, not because of any superiority of the actual product.


----------



## brad

MrMatt said:


> People buy Apple because of image, not because of any superiority of the actual product.


That's a stereotypical view, but the reality is more that there are two different ecosystems, and some people are drawn more to the features and functionality of one over the other -- just as with Windows and Mac or ETFs versus self-assembled portfolios of individual stocks, or the Globe and Mail versus the Financial Times, or whatever other dichotomy you can think of.

I couldn't care less about image myself, but I buy Apple products because they work well together and once you have one (either a Mac, an iPhone, or an iPad) it makes sense to stay in that ecosystem because there are huge efficiencies (no learning curve, everything plays well together and synchronizes, etc.). I'm partially in the Google ecosystem as well, since I use Google docs and drive, but I don't use gmail or Google calendar so there's little point in me switching to Android (I don't have either an Apple or Android phone so I'm not in the phone part of this world at all).

I think the initial attraction of Apple for many people is ease of use and simplicity; the attraction of Android for many people is price, more flexibility, and options. Sure there's a big "coolness" factor around Apple among the hipster set, but there's a huge base of Apple users who could hardly be called hipsters.


----------



## m3s

MrMatt said:


> People buy Android because they want the features of the Android device.
> Look at any carrier, the cost of an iPhone or an Android phone is negligible ($100-200 on contract, even for the top end ones)
> 
> People buy Apple because of image, not because of any superiority of the actual product.


People buy Android because they think hardware specs are the be all end all with no real world comparison (like internet racers and their magazine specs) They often have an irrational emotional hate for Apple.

People buy Apple because they like the OS. Hardware is nothing without software! You can get better performance with superior software.. When I look at specs Samsung is the winner, but when I try them I just don't care for Android.

I am open to Android devices but I find Apple devices to be more of a pleasure to use, and not necessarily more expensive when you consider longevity and resale. I can also use the Google apps on iPhone..

It's a personal preference really.


----------



## GOB

MrMatt said:


> People buy Android because they want the features of the Android device.
> Look at any carrier, the cost of an iPhone or an Android phone is negligible ($100-200 on contract, even for the top end ones)
> 
> People buy Apple because of image, not because of any superiority of the actual product.


Not true at all. Android devices are advertised far more heavily than iPhones by carriers because they are harder to sell. They also go on sale far more often and regularly have buy one get one free promotions. $100-$200 difference may not be much, but even here in Canada and the US a lot of people make their decision based on that difference. I know several who do. 

I did mention there is a crowd who select Android for other reasons, but that number pales in comparison to the number of people who choose it based on price. All the evidence is in plain sight. Even within individual cities you will see more iPhone use in the affluent areas and Android use in the poorer ones.


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> Absolutely, but that's not what I said. I'd prefer a Ferrari or a Tesla over what I have, doesn't mean I can get one. People buy Android not because they prefer to, but because it's what they can afford. I'm speaking in generalities here - there are of course exceptions with some high end Android devices. You only need to look at the success of the iPhone 4S (a 3 year old phone) in India to see how desirable iPhones are. The 4S is not on par tech-wise with even a middle-tier Android device, yet people still want it and are willing to pay a premium for it. It's because of brand, iOS, and ecosystem. All huge competitive advantages.


come on gob, you and i know that both china and india are very poor countries still, price will and does matter hugely and android is killing in china for example



> Yes, price matters.


 and will drive phone sales for a long time since quality is rising rapidly and again, exactly like tv's it will become hard to tell one from the other, people will buy what the sales guy tells them is good

and it will matter even more when we begin to see a move toward purchasing phones outright as they become cheaper, you can buy an exceptionally good phone right now for less than $150, the moto-g is a fantastic phone and the nexus-5 is $350 off contract ... this will begin to matter even more as phones get cheaper ... people hate contracts, they want to be free to do what they like



> I remain cautiously optimistic on the Apple Watch, because I see a ton of potential in future iterations.


hold the flag high ... as you said earlier this will require a time-machine to become a must-have object for the majority of normals and here apple is starting at the same ground zero as all the other watch makers including microsoft who will soon be entering ... 

there is no way on this earth that everyday people who live on a budget are going to buy a $400 device that must be used _with_ an iphone and serves only to move information 2 feet from their pocket to their phone ... no way, it will not happen

a quick one on the apple pay:

Apple Pay Tries to Solve a Problem That Really Isn’t a Problem

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/1...hat-really-isnt-a-problem.html?referrer=&_r=0

i just went to starbucks and bought a $2 drip coffee, i pulled my debit card out of my wallet and tapped the terminal and put the card back in my wallet .. total time, less than 15 seconds ... quicker and easier by a mile than digging for my phone (my iphone-4S :biggrin

once again, apple is playing to the techies who are twitching to pay with their phones

the normals don't give a hoot and when tap and pay fully rolls out in the usa, it will have the same result, 100 times easier than using an iphone

the apple watch is a non-solution to a non-problem (the techies of course just have to have something on their wrists that tells them every 14 seconds when their next appointment is or whether it's 5 degrees warmer than it was 20 minutes ago) and apple pay is a non-solution to a non-problem (credit and debit cards are exceptionally well tried and tested and known and easier to use than nfc, which is why nfc has stalled like a piper-cub in a heavy wind)

apple is effectively out of ideas at the moment ... that may change, i certainly don't count them out

but this entire recent event was a me-too affair


----------



## m3s

I was told by someone who sells phones that they get far more commission from Androids.. Apple doesn't need to pay commission to the peddlers.

When people use stats of devices sold I'm also skeptical. There's also the usage stats. Apple app store sales tower over google Play by a landslide.


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## fatcat

m3s said:


> I was told by someone who sells phones that they get far more commission from Androids.. Apple doesn't need to pay commission to the peddlers.
> 
> When people use stats of devices sold I'm also skeptical. There's also the usage stats. Apple app store sales tower over google Play by a landslide.


it's simple ... there is clearly enough money to be made in the android system that we continue to see an avalanche of better and better phones for less and less money ... that would not be happening if their wasn't huge money to be made in android


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## MrMatt

m3s said:


> People buy Android because they think hardware specs are the be all end all with no real world comparison (like internet racers and their magazine specs) They often have an irrational emotional hate for Apple.
> 
> People buy Apple because they like the OS. Hardware is nothing without software! You can get better performance with superior software.. When I look at specs Samsung is the winner, but when I try them I just don't care for Android.
> 
> I am open to Android devices but I find Apple devices to be more of a pleasure to use, and not necessarily more expensive when you consider longevity and resale. I can also use the Google apps on iPhone..
> 
> It's a personal preference really.


I have Apple and Android devices. I'll agree, pick up and play the Apple devices are pretty appealing. They're quite approachable for new users.

However, after having both for some time, I find that iOS isn't as easy to get things done, I find myself more productive on Android.

I agree that an iPhone isn't actually more expensive. It's really a personal preference thing, which is my point. 

Now I'm specifically not saying I don't think Apple will continue to make gobs of money for the foreseeable future, I'm quite certain they will. 
I just don't think they have the best products, but that doesn't really matter, they pay me a dividend whether I like them or not.


----------



## m3s

fatcat said:


> cthe apple watch is a non-solution to a non-problem (the techies of course just have to have something on their wrists that tells them every 14 seconds when their next appointment is or whether it's 5 degrees warmer than it was 20 minutes ago) and apple pay is a non-solution to a non-problem (credit and debit cards are exceptionally well tried and tested and known and easier to use than nfc, which is why nfc has stalled like a piper-cub in a heavy wind)


Were you one of the many on CMF preaching the same about the iPhone in 2007 and the iPads in 2010? I don't have a tablet and I won't buy a smartwatch (can't even take remote car keys to work) however I see the potential here.. it will take time though.

Businessman walking down the street gets a notification and quickly glances to see if it's important or can be disregarded, without looking possessed by a cell phone. Anyone who wants to quickly be on top of things without losing their wits will probably do the same.

Skydivers wear altimeters on their wrists for a reason. I wear a watch with timezone dial because I need very precise time quickly and I found it is the best way. Some of the apps may be superfluous, but I can see the potential for having notifications on my wrist..


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## GOB

fatcat, you are way off the mark on so many of your points. China has over a billion people, and hundreds of millions of then are moving into the middle class. A huge number of them aspire to owning iPhones. Apple did $30B in China last year, and it's one of their fastest growing countries. Apple has a huge and growing presence in China - look at the numbers if you don't believe me. India is at a much earlier stage in their development, and Apple is a bit player there but they are starting to focus more there and increase their presence. Remember, unlike a typical Android device Apple makes excellent margin on every phone they sell, so even a few hundred thousand extra devices in a country adds up if it happens around the world. 

How exactly is digging for your phone more time consuming than digging for your credit card? Neither takes much time but the phone is definitely quicker. Have you seen how Apple Pay works? There is no app to open - you literally hold it near the terminal, authenticate with your fingerprint and you're done. It's easier and faster than a credit card. More importantly, it is far more secure than a credit card as the banks have admitted. It will make a large positive impact on reducing fraud. I don't think MasterCard, Visa, American Express and all the major US banks would have signed deals with Apple if they didn't see Apple Pay being used by anyone but "techies". If you've seen the demo you will see how easy Apple Pay is. Perhaps you are mistaking it with Google Wallet which is indeed more difficult - you have to pull up an app, type a passcode, select your card and then tap to pay. 

I would be amused at your reaction if smartphones existed before watches, and somebody invented the watch. Normal people would never pay hundreds or thousands of dollars just so they can check the time every 12 seconds when they have the time in their pocket, right?! A lot of people I know are *very* interested in the Apple Watch. 

Your TV argument continues to be ridiculous. Nobody mistakes a Mac for a PC and nobody mistakes iOS for Android. A TV has no differentiation apart from specs - Apple's computers and smartphones do. Hyundais and Kias continue to offer stellar cars with many features, but someone interested in a BMW is not going consider one. Cars have been around quite a whole, too, you must be surprised that BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Ferrari aren't out of business yet?


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## MrMatt

I can see the value in a smartwatch.

I'd buy one instead of a Garmin Forerunner.

Apple isn't the only one pushing this idea, Intel has a nice one they're promoting too. 
Sony has their interesting concept, and of course all the Android based ones are about to flood the market.


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## GOB

People dismissing wearables are the same type of people who dismissed tablets. They didn't see the use for them because they had no vision of what the category could be. Of course if you think a wearable exists just to transfer identical information from your phone to your wrist then it's going to fail.

For me, just being able to see the a stock ticker will easy provide $400 of value as I will not have to pull out my phone dozens of times a day. It's not just "useless" info such as time and weather that can be displayed. Think outside the box.


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## GOB

The other thing about a Apple Pay that I forgot to mention is that it's a major step towards being able to leave your wallet at home. The bulk of my wallet is taken up by cards. I would love to be able to leave my wallet at home, and I believe so would "normals". For now, just being able to get rid of the credit cards would make my wallet slimmer.


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## brad

GOB said:


> The other thing about a Apple Pay that I forgot to mention is that it's a major step towards being able to leave your wallet at home. The bulk of my wallet is taken up by cards. I would love to be able to leave my wallet at home, and I believe so would "normals". For now, just being able to get rid of the credit cards would make my wallet slimmer.


I've never been to Japan myself, but my impression based on things I've seen and read is that this is how it has worked in Japan for quite a while now (at least 10 years) -- people pay for most things with their phones. It works like this in Kenya as well; people use their phones to send and receive money all the time. My point is not that Apple is "behind the times," but that this isn't some novel, untested idea. Millions of people in the world already do it and North America is just catching up. Apple is likely to do it right, at least better than most other companies that could attempt something like this in North America.


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## GOB

Great point, brad. Japan is ahead in so many ways, but it's kept within the country because they do not use standardized technology. Japan is an extremely efficient place, and mobile payments are part of that. Phones are also used as their transit cards and it's so much quicker than buying tickets or using a dedicated transit pass. This is the future. Some people may say it only takes 15 seconds to take out a different card but each step increases efficiency by a little big to make a significant net impact. 

Just think - if there is a lineup of twelve people and Apple Pay can save ten seconds per transaction, you will get to checkout two minutes earlier. It all adds up bit by bit. We are also forgetting that chip and pin is required for larger purchases because of the insecurity of paypass. This takes much longer to read the card, enter your pin, authenticate and finally remove your card several seconds later. If Apple Pay is used in place of this there are major time savings to be had. Other than familiarity, there is no real reason not to use Apple Pay if you have a capable device.


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## KaeJS

GOB said:


> The other thing about a Apple Pay that I forgot to mention is that it's a major step towards being able to leave your wallet at home. The bulk of my wallet is taken up by cards. I would love to be able to leave my wallet at home, and I believe so would "normals". For now, just being able to get rid of the credit cards would make my wallet slimmer.


Google Wallet has been around for years.

You really are brainwashed - Aren't you?

Leave your wallet at home? LOL.
Yeah, maybe if you're the 13 year old girl buying the iPhone. For the majority of people that DRIVE A VEHICLE, you will need your wallet regardless because that is where most people keep their license and identification.


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## brad

KaeJS said:


> Google Wallet has been around for years..


Do you know anyone who actually uses it? To buy things in real bricks-and-mortar stores and restaurants?


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## KaeJS

No, brad, I don't.

Because quite honestly - It's just not necessary. Especially when people are manufacturing phone cases with card slots. You don't need your wallet anyway. 

iPhone 6: Another disappointment.


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## KaeJS

Oh. And what was AAPL thinking with that watch of theirs?

Take a look at the AAPL watch vs. the Samsung Galaxy Gear S.
It is clear that the Gear S is the winner.


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## fatcat

people have been paying with their phones for years for all kinds of things
you can buy a coca-cola from a vending machine with your phone in sweden

that isn't the point, the point is that apple is just a me-too in nfc payments
all kinds of companies will be competing in this space

some people will like to pay by phone but for the foreseeable future, credit cards will rule this space, not too mention whatever technological disruption we may see ... apple is just another name in this space ... does anyone seriously doubt that we won't see fingerprint authentication on android phones shortly ? .. of course we will

it is possible that an tech-watch (for lack of a better term) will someday begin to catch on but only if it becomes affordable and technologically feasible, nothing that apple has offered solves that problem

their watch is as good as all the other watches, no better, no worse .. they are all alpha products, far from maturity which ... one day ... may garner wide appeal (remember, we are talking about the normals here) until then, it remains a geeky niche product

for the record, i was itching for an ipad from day one since i owned at least 3 newtons and wanted to see a tablet succeed ... same for the ipod and iphone which i saw as winners from day 1 ... the apple watch ain't no ipad or iphone



> Great point, brad. Japan is ahead in so many ways, but it's kept within the country because they do not use standardized technology. Japan is an extremely efficient place, and mobile payments are part of that.


but it took japan _decades_ to develop that infrastructure, decades ... this space is still wide open and apple has plenty of competition .. 

the quality of this recent set of offerings simply did not push the innovation envelope at all, it was incremental at best


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## GOB

Welcome, troll. 

Go ahead and watch a video of Google Wallet vs Apple Pay. 

I've already explained the difference but perhaps you need to see it for yourself. Actually, who am I kidding, you just don't get it. 

The only thing that is clear is that you don't have a clue.

As for the wallet, it will eventually happen. If a credit card and health data can be stored a phone, why can't ID eventually be? Are you slow?

If my ID was the only thing remaining in my wallet, I'd just stick it my phone case. There you go - wallet gone. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out.


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> that isn't the point, the point is that apple is just a me-too in nfc payments
> all kinds of companies will be competing in this space


Sure, but Apple competes on user experience, which is where they usually win. Everyone else focuses on the technology; Apple has (for decades, now) focused on the user and has spent huge sums of money in order to make the user experience as simple and intuitive as possible. Apple was just a me-too in the smart phone business when it came out with the iPhone. The iPhone's attraction wasn't so much about technology, it was about making a smart phone that actually was smart and didn't require you to do most of the work yourself. They were a me-too player in the personal computer business when they first came out with the Mac. The technology looked ridiculous: a tiny screen, a keyboard that sounded like popcorn when you typed on it. It looked like a toy, but it was much more powerful than any PC on the market because instead of forcing the user to memorize commands like autoex-bat, the computer remembered that. All you had to do was point and click. 

Apple has always been about the user, not the technology, and most of its competitors just can't or won't go the extra mile (which has huge incremental costs) to make the user experience simple and seamless.


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## GOB

You are so much more eloquent than me, brad.


----------



## KaeJS

GOB said:


> Welcome, troll.
> 
> If a credit card and health data can be stored a phone, why can't ID eventually be? Are you slow?
> 
> If my ID was the only thing remaining in my wallet, I'd just stick it my phone case. There you go - wallet gone. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out.


I'm sure Credit Card and Health Data CAN be stored on a phone. Do you think AAPL will be the only one to do this if and when it does happen?

And yes... about sticking your ID in your phone case. Did you not read what I said about people that have card slots in their phone case? It makes paying by phone a moot point.

At this stage in the game, paying by phone just really isn't all that more efficient than opening your phone flip case, taking out your visa and tapping it on the machine.


----------



## GOB

You are completely neglecting the huge differences in security in using a credit card versus a phone with data tokenization and biometric authentication. Look at the Target and Home Depot breaches and think about the cost that entails, just as two examples. 

There are a lot of future implications for this. Fraud represent a huge cost to credit card issuers and banks. If Apple Pay can reduce this, and it will, they can pass on part of this savings to offer lower fees, better interest rates and better rewards to those that use Apple Pay, thus incentivizing even more people to use it. Apple Pay users win, the banks win and Apple wins. 

Yes, Google Wallet has been around but they didn't get any good deals with partners. Why? Firstly the interface is terrible and as a result nobody uses it. Secondly, it is less secure than Apple Pay and the consumer that would use it are lower income and do not spend as much money, so there was no real incentive to partner with Google.


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## MrMatt

GOB said:


> The other thing about a Apple Pay that I forgot to mention is that it's a major step towards being able to leave your wallet at home. The bulk of my wallet is taken up by cards. I would love to be able to leave my wallet at home, and I believe so would "normals". For now, just being able to get rid of the credit cards would make my wallet slimmer.


NFC promises that. 
Paying by phone for such things as parking has been available for quite a while now.


The only "new" part is that now Apple is trying to push their version of what others have been doing for years.

If you were really looking to slim down your wallet by using these technologies, you would already have tried some of them.


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## fatcat

brad said:


> Sure, but Apple competes on user experience, which is where they usually win. Everyone else focuses on the technology; Apple has (for decades, now) focused on the user and has spent huge sums of money in order to make the user experience as simple and intuitive as possible. Apple was just a me-too in the smart phone business when it came out with the iPhone. The iPhone's attraction wasn't so much about technology, it was about making a smart phone that actually was smart and didn't require you to do most of the work yourself. They were a me-too player in the personal computer business when they first came out with the Mac. The technology looked ridiculous: a tiny screen, a keyboard that sounded like popcorn when you typed on it. It looked like a toy, but it was much more powerful than any PC on the market because instead of forcing the user to memorize commands like autoex-bat, the computer remembered that. All you had to do was point and click.
> 
> Apple has always been about the user, not the technology, and most of its competitors just can't or won't go the extra mile (which has huge incremental costs) to make the user experience simple and seamless.


i have been buying apple products for almost 30 years because of their user experience which has been superior (in my opinion to any other alternative, and there have been many)

but the user-experience advantage is now starting to disappear as others inevitably copy apple

this is especially true in brand new spaces, like the watch where user experience has many, many re-visons ahead of it ... all kinds of people can play in this space and we have yet to see what watch will win ... if watches are to succeed, they must stand on their own, they cannot succeed tethered to a smartphone so this is a space that is wide open for redefinition

i'm not sure you are reading what i am saying, i bought a mac-plus in 87 because it was clearly the best computer, but that was 30 years ago almost and competition has had time to catch up and copy apple

second, the ipod and ipad were clear (at least to me) category killers and creators and it has taken years for others to catch up but they are, inevitably, catching up ... even if they just copy apple

to continue to lead apple must create new categories *(the apple watch is simply not a new category no matter how many times you hold your breath and think it, it isn't, it's another me-too product)* and they are simply no longer doing this, this recent launch was an incremental me-too affair that spoke directly to techies and not the normals

android is targeting the normals and en-masse they have more money to spend


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> i'm not sure you are reading what i am saying, i bought a mac-plus in 87 because it was clearly the best computer, but that was 30 years ago almost and competition has had time to catch up and copy apple


Yep, it's true. The first version of Microsoft Windows was quite a few years behind the Mac in terms of functionality and usability, but I'd say they were at par with Windows 7. MS slipped with Windows 8 but I imagine their next version will be better.

I guess I'm not convince that Apple is trying to "lead." They're looking for opportunities to do what they do best (take something that others have clumsily tried to implement and do it much better -- from personal computers to MP3 players to phones, to tablets, to watches). They don't need to dominate the market; the market is so big that if they simply stick with their traditional role of niche player they will make tons of money. I don't think they need to or want to create new categories, that's not really what they are about.


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## GOB

Yep, it's all about improving the experience of those that do use Apple products. That process as a consequence attracts platform switchers as well. Apple enters new markets not with the intention of dominating them but with the intention of capturing and retaining the high end who care more about user experience than price and specs. 

As a business, Apple does want to improve market share, sales and profits but not at the expense of degrading their products and user experience. I don't believe Apple would enter a useless product category, which is why I believe Apple Watch has a bright future. 

While almost never leading in market share, Apple almost always leads in setting the direction and mass adoption of technology. The GUI, the mouse, the built-in webcam, the multitouch interface, the app ecosystem, biometric authentication and now mobile payments. None of these were "invented" by Apple but Apple made them viable by creating incredible ease of use.

Love them or hate them, Apple directs the future of technology. What other company would dare to remove the 3.5" floppy disk, and now the optical drive, on their major products?

Apple thinks long term, years and decades into the future. They are generally not a reactive company, though they can be when they need to, as we have just seen with the bigger iPhones.


----------



## GOB

MrMatt said:


> NFC promises that.
> Paying by phone for such things as parking has been available for quite a while now.
> 
> 
> The only "new" part is that now Apple is trying to push their version of what others have been doing for years.
> 
> If you were really looking to slim down your wallet by using these technologies, you would already have tried some of them.


Not really. Nobody has offered the security and privacy that Apple does. I am looking to slim down my wallet but only when it makes sense to and when there are no major compromises. The ecosystem is also not yet in place. Apple Pay will stimulate rapid growth in making all of this ubiquitous. 

I have no interest in Google Wallet because it's not an easy way to pay and I don't want Google analyzing my shopping habits. The only thing similar is that they are both NFC mobile payments. The UI, privacy and security are completely different. This is what a large number of people don't understand until they actually use an Apple product.


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## fatcat

apple has proven over the last 40 years that they are one of the most innovative companies on the planet

innovation eventually, for all companies, begins to become more and more difficult, it's a law, that's the way the future works, by confounding us

sony is a prime example of this as is xerox, kodak, ford motor company and a host of other trail-blazing companies

apple's stock price is at least partly built on the markets faith in its innovative capacity and that capacity is now under greater and greater pressure and must now climb a steeper hill than before

it might do it but i suspect that the rest of the market is catching up (even if they are only copying apple, it doesn't matter, money doesn't mind copycats) and that is what i mean when i say it is a good short


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Not really. Nobody has offered the security and privacy that Apple does. I am looking to slim down my wallet but only when it makes sense to and when there are no major compromises. The ecosystem is also not yet in place. Apple Pay will stimulate rapid growth in making all of this ubiquitous.
> 
> I have no interest in Google Wallet because it's not an easy way to pay and I don't want Google analyzing my shopping habits. The only thing similar is that they are both NFC mobile payments. The UI, privacy and security are completely different. This is what a large number of people don't understand until they actually use an Apple product.


Interestingly I didn't mention Google in my post, but you assume I'm talking about a Google backed technology.

NFC isn't necessarily Google wallet.
Paying by phone for parking doesn't even require a smartphone, and has been widely (as in around the globe) deployed for years.

Sure Apple will put their fancy wrapper and spin on it, but the actual ideas aren't new.

Privacy & Security completely different?
Different than what? Of the many (dozens, hundreds) of competitors offering mobile pay solutions, you're sure that Apple is actually different than all of them? 

You're right things are "different" with Apple products, they have one of the most loyal, forgiving and profitable customer bases today. It's why they're such a great investment.


----------



## GOB

I never said the ideas are new. Perhaps I'm ignorant - care to point me towards an alternative solution that offers the UI and security Apple does? If you can't then you're just being antagonistic for no reason. I'd be very eager to try it if it checks out. And yes, I use my phone to pay for parking as do most people I know. 

Fatcat, AAPL's stock actually places little to no value on future innovations. It's why they are such a great investment. The most profitable company on earth with huge financial power for dividends, buybacks, and accretive acquisitions is trading at a discount to the market. That's before backing out the cash which accounts for around 25% of the stock price. Show me where the innovation potential is priced in. Apple is priced for zero innovation and zero forward growth. I'm more than happy to bet against that by being long and adding to my position through selling of cash-secured puts.


----------



## Pluto

GOB said:


> The most profitable company on earth with huge financial power for dividends, buybacks, and accretive acquisitions is trading at a discount to the market. That's before backing out the cash which accounts for around 25% of the stock price. Show me where the innovation potential is priced in. Apple is priced for zero innovation and zero forward growth. I'm more than happy to bet against that by being long and adding to my position through selling of cash-secured puts.


GOB, you make a lot of sense.


----------



## Pluto

And speaking of cash secured puts, would you be kind enough to give an example of what you do when you sell puts? I'd like to try selling some puts myself, but I'm not too sophisticated in that area.


----------



## GOB

It's rather straightforward once you have some familiarity with option. Say you are willing to buy AAPL at $100 by Sept 26. You can sell a Sep26 $100 put contract for $106 (at current price) which you get to keep. If AAPL is above $100, nothing happens and you are $106 ahead. If it is below $100, then you still keep the $106 but are assigned 100 shares at $100 per share. You have to have the cash in your account to cover this. 

You can play around with different strike prices and expiry dates. You do this in a conservative way or an aggressive way, turning into a viable income strategy or just a simple way to accumulate shares at prices you're comfortable with while pocketing some premiums along the way.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> I never said the ideas are new. Perhaps I'm ignorant - care to point me towards an alternative solution that offers the UI and security Apple does? If you can't then you're just being antagonistic for no reason. I'd be very eager to try it if it checks out. And yes, I use my phone to pay for parking as do most people I know.
> 
> Fatcat, AAPL's stock actually places little to no value on future innovations. It's why they are such a great investment. The most profitable company on earth with huge financial power for dividends, buybacks, and accretive acquisitions is trading at a discount to the market. That's before backing out the cash which accounts for around 25% of the stock price. Show me where the innovation potential is priced in. Apple is priced for zero innovation and zero forward growth. I'm more than happy to bet against that by being long and adding to my position through selling of cash-secured puts.


three things, first apple is an economic powerhouse, flush with cash and market leading products, about this we agree

where we disagree is in the degree to which apple is bought and sold purely on the expectation of their "magic" ... i absolutely believe that this accounts for a significant underpinning of their share price ... the market loves to play apple ... 

and though i agree that they are an economic powerhouse (i am quite happy to own them in QQQ) i believe they have signaled that they are going in a new direction, not because they want to but because they are facing much stiffer competition and their products simply are not putting the kind of distance between themselves and their competitors like they used

as to alternatives to apple pay, wal-mart, target, 7-Eleven, southwest airlines, the gap and shell are backing an initiative called "CurrentC"



> If broadly adopted, CurrentC could impose a radical change on the credit and debit card system. Customers can either load cash into the app or allow the app to take funds directly out of a checking or savings account - it cannot be linked to a credit card. That means *Wal-Mart and other retailers would avoid paying "swipe" fees - the money merchants pay banks every time a shopper swipes a credit or debit card.*
> *The stores plan to use those savings to offer discounts to consumers who adopt the system.* The network of retailers is also expected to cover the cost of fraudulent purchases, which generally are paid for by banks today.
> Perhaps not surprisingly, Apple announced this week that every major bank and the three primary credit card companies had joined Apple Pay.
> *Both CurrentC and Apple Pay require shoppers to pay for goods and services using an app on their smartphones.* Such systems are touted to be more secure than credit cards, which are particularly vulnerable because the account number, expiration date and security code easily can be stolen and used for fraudulent purchases.
> *But the two systems have key differences.
> CurrentC works on any smartphone, not just the iPhone, so it has a larger potential market. And when a shopper is ready to buy a product, the CurrentC app creates a type of bar code - called a QR code - that can be recognized by most checkout scanners today.*


----------



## andrewf

m3s said:


> I was told by someone who sells phones that they get far more commission from Androids.. Apple doesn't need to pay commission to the peddlers.
> 
> When people use stats of devices sold I'm also skeptical. There's also the usage stats. Apple app store sales tower over google Play by a landslide.


Those stats are also biased by different policies on in-app purchases. Not all Android revenue goes through Play.


----------



## andrewf

MrMatt said:


> NFC promises that.
> Paying by phone for such things as parking has been available for quite a while now.
> 
> 
> The only "new" part is that now Apple is trying to push their version of what others have been doing for years.
> 
> If you were really looking to slim down your wallet by using these technologies, you would already have tried some of them.


Apple was telling everyone that NFC was a dumb idea until last week.


----------



## andrewf

There will be competitors (and strongly backed ones) to Apple Pay by virtue of the fact that Apple Pay will only ever be used by a smallish share of the market.


----------



## KaeJS

andrewf said:


> Apple was telling everyone that NFC was a dumb idea until last week.


Lol. Best post thus far...


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> There will be competitors (and strongly backed ones) to Apple Pay by virtue of the fact that Apple Pay will only ever be used by a smallish share of the market.


of course, roughly half of american adults own a smartphone of those roughly 40% are iphones ... of those about what 50% are 5 or above ? ... this is a very small number of americans eligible to even use apple pay ... competition in this space will be fierce ...


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> Apple was telling everyone that NFC was a dumb idea until last week.


NFC is fine if the data can be protected. Bluetooth LE is possibly a better alternative except for the fact that NFC has much of the infrastructure already in place in terms of terminals. Apple is famous for putting down technology until they implement it themselves (usually in a better way). I don't actually recall Apple telling anyone that NFC was a dumb idea. Maybe it's been interpreted as such by the fact that they left it out of their phones. 

What is a dumb idea is including an NFC chip for the sake of it without having the proper partnerships, security and infrastructure in place. That's the kind of thing Apple avoids. They don't care that other phones have had it for years - they care that they have the best and most useful implementation of it that is actually going to shake up the industry, make their consumers happy and make them profit.


----------



## GOB

I really don't get what the obsession is with pointing out that there are competitors to iPhone/Apple Watch/Apple Pay/etc. What an obvious and redundant statement. Apple Pay is not even the first mobile payment to market, so of course there are going to be competitors - there already are! If the bear case for Apple is "there are competitors" then what a poor bear case it is. Can we all agree that there is competition for every product Apple makes and every service they provide (just like virtually every other company and every other product in every other industry) and move on? By the way, it works both ways - Apple is stiff competition for everybody else, too.

Some back of the napkin math on Apple Pay a year or two out when most iPhones will be capable of it:

US credit/debit transaction volume: $4.4 trillion
transaction volume from iPhone users: $2.0 trillion (conservatively assumed 45%, as market share is 40% and customer base is much more affluent, but accounts for non-smartphone users)
Apple Pay penetration among iPhone users: 50% (again I believe this could be very conservative but perhaps accounts for retailers who do not accept Apple Pay)
Apple Pay transaction volume: $1.0 trillion
Apple's cut: 0.15% - $1.5 billion
Margins: 85% (will be very high margin as there is almost no operating cost once the system is in place)
Net profit: $1.3 billion

Keep in mind this is with some conservative assumptions. iPhone share is increasing in the US, smartphone penetration continues to increase, online shopping continues to increase, and everyone is scrambling to advertise that they will accept Apple Pay. These numbers are US only - the global rollout and adoption will be slower, and though market share will be less the scale of spending is immense. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple Pay bringing in over $5 billion globally in a few years time. This is over 10% of current net income - a huge deal. And yes, this is despite whatever the competition puts out. Apple Pay will obviously be the top choice among iPhone users, so as long as a growing number of people use iPhones, these numbers are more than reasonable.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> US credit/debit transaction volume: $4.4 trillion
> transaction volume from iPhone users: $2.0 trillion (conservatively assumed 45%, as market share is


say what ?

you are saying that iphone owners have accounted for half of credit / debit transactions ?

really ?

roughly 60 million americans own an iphone which means 240 million don't use an iphone and yet iphone users account for 50% of transactions ?

ok ... please point me to your data source


----------



## GOB

1) it's an assumption, as I stated
2) I assumed 45%, not 50%
3) I would assume around 90-100M iPhones in the US, and growing based on the following:

US Population: 315 million
Smartphone penetration: ~70% (220 million). If you follow the curve it's actually probably closer to 75% now, but I like to build in some buffer in my numbers.








iOS smartphone share: 42% (92.6 million)









Now let's assume there are about 75 million kids under the age of 18, who contribute little to credit and debit payments based on the following:









Of course, there are a large number of kids under 18 with iPhones, so let's try to find some data:









I'll give some buffer and say 8% of iPhones are owned by kids under 17. That amounts to 7.4 million iPhones that will not be making payments. 

That means the US population of people who make payments is (315 - 75) 240 million people and the number of people capable of making payments with an iPhone is (92.6 - 7.4) 85.2 million. That is 35% of the paying population. 

Given that the average iPhone user is more affluent, I believe they probably spend more. Hmmm, let's find some data:



> Apple's mobile operating system, iOS, continues to blow away Google's Android in mobile commerce, according to IBM analytics.
> IBM put out a press release about what it saw during Christmas. It's not good for Android:
> 
> iOS vs. Android: As a percentage of total online sales, iOS was more than five times higher than Android, driving 23 percent vs. 4.6 percent for Android. On average, iOS users spent $93.94 per order, nearly twice that of Android users, who spent $48.10 per order. iOS also led as a component of overall traffic with 32.6 percent vs. 14.8 percent for Android.
> 
> Over and over we hear about Apple getting creamed by Android in marketshare, and yet, IBM's data says that iOS is a clear cut winner when it comes to mobile traffic and shopping.


Given the above, I think my 45% assumption is more than reasonable, and perhaps even conservative. Note that I just made a reasonable guess, and only put this info together after you questioned, so thank you for reinforcing my confidence in my guesstimates. It's amazing what a few minutes of research can reveal. You were quite dismissive of my numbers so I backed them up - Care to share your assumptions and the data/math behind them?


----------



## SpIcEz

Are you counting iphones that dont have NFC?
Are you assuming every SINGLE adult with an iphone will use Appel Pay?

Those are BIG assumptions. I think seeing 20% of "capable" iphones using Apple pay in the next 2 years would be on the high side.


----------



## GOB

SpIcEz said:


> Are you counting iphones that dont have NFC?
> Are you assuming every SINGLE adult with an iphone will use Appel Pay?
> 
> Those are BIG assumptions. I think seeing 20% of "capable" iphones using Apple pay in the next 2 years would be on the high side.


Come on, could you at least read my post?!

I said this is maybe a year or two out when the majority of iPhones have NFC (and many of those that don't will have the Apple Watch with NFC)

I also said I'm assuming 50% of iPhone users will use Apple Pay. 

I see Apple Pay taking off fast, because there is really no disincentive to using it. It's quicker, easier and more secure. A few will take the plunge right away, others will witness them in real life and realize that they should be doing it too.

This is not going to contribute multiple billions of dollars to the bottom line immediately. But why does it have to? Apple's initial goal for the original iPhone was to sell 1 million units (or maybe it was it 1% of the market) - think about that. Think long term.


----------



## SpIcEz

You are assuming a majority iphones owners will have 5s and 6s in 2 years time. (Majority means what 51% or 91%???)
You are assuming that many who dont will have an Apple Watch.
You are assuming 50% of iphone users "in general" according to your words, will use Apple Pay.

I just might happen, but those are, in my opinion, very big assumptions.


----------



## fatcat

roughly 80% of America's population are adults over the age of 15, thats about 240 million people
roughly 56% of them own a smart phone, thats about 135 million people
roughly 40% of those 135M own an iphone, thats about 54 million people

and you are saying that those 54 million people account for almost 50% of all debit/credit transactions ?

not a chance


----------



## GOB

Where are you getting your numbers from? I provided my data - any response to that? Where's your data? Not very convincing. Why must I waste my time backing up my numbers upon your request but you can feel free to toss out random numbers?

Maybe there is an error in my numbers but at least I am backing them up. Let's assume your numbers are correct - it still means iPhone users represent 22.5% of the population that are able to make payments. You still need to account for the fact that iPhone users spend a lot more money than their counterparts. So if my 45% is ridiculous your 22.5% is equally so. It may be somewhere in between. Fact remains it's a big chunk of money that is going to go to Apple.

You're making the mistake of treating each individual as the same in terms of their spending habits. I'm pretty sure that on average:

- someone without a cellphone spends less than someone with a cellphone
- someone with a feature phone spends less than someone with a smartphone
- someone with an iPhone spends more than someone with an Android/Windows/BB phone

Just looking at it by population which is 22.5% alone by your numbers, and higher by mine, is a very incomplete analysis.


----------



## GOB

SpIcEz said:


> You are assuming a majority iphones owners will have 5s and 6s in 2 years time. (Majority means what 51% or 91%???)
> You are assuming that many who dont will have an Apple Watch.
> You are assuming 50% of iphone users "in general" according to your words, will use Apple Pay.
> 
> I just might happen, but those are, in my opinion, very big assumptions.


Yes. Smartphone replacement cycles are 2-3 years and pushed by carriers. I'm really not so concerned about a specific point in time, the exercise was to demonstrate the potential of Apple Pay in the future. Be it 1, 2, 3 or 4 years from now, pretty much every iPhone in the US will be Apple Pay capable.

If 50% is a crazy assumption, what in your opinion are the barriers that would prevent somebody with a capable iPhone from using Apple Pay? I'm willing to hear you out, because I am really just guessing. But I don't see any compelling reason for somebody not to use it.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Where are you getting your numbers from? I provided my data - any response to that? Where's your data? Not very convincing. Why must I waste my time backing up my numbers upon your request but you can feel free to toss out random numbers?
> 
> Maybe there is an error in my numbers but at least I am backing them up. Let's assume your numbers are correct - it still means iPhone users represent 22.5% of the population that are able to make payments. You still need to account for the fact that iPhone users spend a lot more money than their counterparts. So if my 45% is ridiculous your 22.5% is equally so. It may be somewhere in between. Fact remains it's a big chunk of money that is going to go to Apple.
> 
> You're making the mistake of treating each individual as the same in terms of their spending habits. I'm pretty sure that on average:
> 
> - someone without a cellphone spends less than someone with a cellphone
> - someone with a feature phone spends less than someone with a smartphone
> - someone with an iPhone spends more than someone with an Android/Windows/BB phone
> 
> Just looking at it by population which is 22.5% alone by your numbers, and higher by mine, is a very incomplete analysis.


the numbers are rough but available all over the place and of course it's a moving target

this from comscore, a well known technology analytics firm:

View attachment 1817


they put apple ownership at 41.3% of 163.2 million smartphone users, thats about 67 million iphone users
and let's say around 82 million android users (windows, blackberry and others are left)

there is no way 67 million americans can account for almost 50% of debit/credit transactions
no way

67 million americans is about 27% of all american adults over the age of 15 according to wikipedia
View attachment 1825


no way that 27% of americans are going to account for almost 50% of debit/credit transactions, even given iphone users higher household average income 

no way ...

not to mention that models that won't support apple pay namely 4S and older are about 50% of the installed base
so that brings current potential users of apple pay to only about 35 million people, hardly enough to start a revolution in payment systems


----------



## GOB

If your numbers are correct, then there must be an error somewhere in mine. Thanks. But note that is the 3 months ending February, over six months ago. Smartphone penetration and iPhone share have both increased since then. 

I think it's entirely possible that 27% of users can contribute 45% of the transaction value. What number would you think is appropriate? It's not that far of a gap in the face of all the evidence. You can say "no way" all you like, but look into the numbers and you might change your mind. iOS users spend a LOT more:










One more point. Expect Touch ID to make its intro on iPads this year, and expect them to be Apple Pay capable. While these won't be used at retailers with NFC, a ton of online shopping is done on iPads. So quibbling about the exact number of iPhone users in the US is really missing the take-home message. 

You are making the same arguments people made with the iPhone. A $500 unsubsidized phone wasn't going to sell enough to start a revolution...except it did. If 30-50% of the most affluent consumers demonstrate a preference to using Apple Pay, and is supported by banks and credit card companies of course that is enough to spur a revolution. Time will tell.



> PALO ALTO, Calif. - January 30, 2014 - Using real-time, aggregated data provided by Check, a mobile payments app used by more than 10 million consumers to pay bills, University of California, Berkeley, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and Arizona State University researchers found that consumers spent 30% more during the 2013 holiday shopping season compared to the same period last year. Additionally, researchers determined iPhone users spent more this past season compared to Android users - as well as both groups' average purchase amount and what retailers they chose to spend their money on.
> 
> Executive Summary
> 
> iPhone users, who on average earn 50% more than Android users, spent nearly 40% more this holiday shopping season. Android users were not far behind, spending 33% more this season compared to the same period in 2012. Also, iPhone users paid $126.98 on average per purchase this year - more than $36 per purchase compared to their Android counterparts. The 2013 holiday shopping season was hugely successful for online retailers like Amazon. Both iPhone and Android users spent more at Amazon than any other retailer (traditional or online).
> 
> Lastly, when comparing spending patterns across geographies, researchers found that the highest average purchase amounts were made in the West, followed by the Mountain region and the Mideast region, respectively.


Forget the iPhone vs Android stuff for a second and just see the trend of online shopping and mobile payments increasing. Apple Pay is going to be a success.


----------



## indexxx

Not wanting to interrupt a great tennis match between you guys,  but just wanted to post this article out of interest. Of course it's just one pundit but it might hold interest for some here.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/an...-matter-of-time-2014-09-12?link=mw_home_kiosk


----------



## kcowan

fatcat said:


> i just went to starbucks and bought a $2 drip coffee, i pulled my debit card out of my wallet and tapped the terminal and put the card back in my wallet .. total time, less than 15 seconds ... quicker and easier by a mile than digging for my phone (my iphone-4S :biggrin


Have you tried this in the US or Europe? The banks know their limitations in accepting 'foreign' debit cards. That is why retailer-specific prepaid cards work. "Watch" for this to become huge at 15 cents per click. Compare that to Visa debit charges.


----------



## andrewf

While 50% transaction penetration may be conservative, it may also be optimistic. In two years it may be 10 or 15%...


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> NFC is fine if the data can be protected. Bluetooth LE is possibly a better alternative except for the fact that NFC has much of the infrastructure already in place in terms of terminals. Apple is famous for putting down technology until they implement it themselves (usually in a better way). I don't actually recall Apple telling anyone that NFC was a dumb idea. Maybe it's been interpreted as such by the fact that they left it out of their phones.
> 
> What is a dumb idea is including an NFC chip for the sake of it without having the proper partnerships, security and infrastructure in place. That's the kind of thing Apple avoids. They don't care that other phones have had it for years - they care that they have the best and most useful implementation of it that is actually going to shake up the industry, make their consumers happy and make them profit.


Why is a short range, low overhead communication method "dumb". NFC is capable of far more than payment processing. Though it seems Apple will block the other uses of NFC.

"they care that they have the best and most useful implementation" that's fanboy talk.
The reality is Apple will release a product or technology when they have a plan to use it, or it fits their strategic goals.
Apple Maps was a disaster, and everyone knew it.

Apple seems very comfortable limiting features, they have "NFC", but your app can't use it, violating specs (I don't know how much they paid Bluetooth to get their noncompliant version certified).
They're a bully and they'll fight for whatever they perceive to be to their benefit.


----------



## fatcat

indexxx said:


> Not wanting to interrupt a great tennis match between you guys,  but just wanted to post this article out of interest. Of course it's just one pundit but it might hold interest for some here.
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/an...-matter-of-time-2014-09-12?link=mw_home_kiosk


i admit that i have a fundamental bias when i look at companies when i see them branching into brand new areas with which they don't have a lot of experience

and it makes me wonder why ... in the case of apple i think it is because sales of laptops are slowing, sales of ipads are slowing and the competition for phones is going to be fierce

this is simply because these products are now reaching maturity, they are now beginning to become commodities (like tv's sorry gob)
the screens are so beautiful, the speed is so good, the cameras are fantastic, they are becoming waterproof and scratch-proof and just about drop proof .. 

battery life and charging needs work but in general the rest of the market has now succeeded completely in copying the iphone in every respect (i prefer ios but plenty of people around the world, the normals, just don't know or care, they buy what the salesman tells them)

apple is shifting into _design and lifestyle and payments and banking for a reason_ and anytime a business makes this shift into a new direction it is vulnerable

and in all the areas apple is going into: watches, digital payments, banking ?, cloud services, photo-storage etc, they have huge and skilled competition ... they are not the standouts in any of these areas, they are just another company
they are at the ground floor of all this stuff along with everyone else

oh, and the iphone-6 has plenty of great phone competition from phones that rival them in every way

thats the short on apple that i see


----------



## GOB

Matt, it's interesting that you still have yet to offer me an appropriate alternative to Apple Pay, in spite of your claim that there are so many options out there and it's nothing special. Still waiting. 

It's clear you have some sort of vendetta against Apple. That's fine, but you obviously don't understand the company. You call it fanboy talk but their philosophy is obvious in their products. Of course they don't release a technology until it's ready and fits their goals. Is that a bad thing?! 

iOS and Android are two different philosophies. Android "allows" a lot more but at the same time opens itself up to an absurd number of vulnerabilities. Over 99% of malware is ok Android despite iOS being a far more lucrative target. That alone should tell you all you need to know. Getting a foothold in enterprise and getting agreements with banks requires demonstrating proven security of the platform. The restrictions iOS places do not really affect most people. 

NFC has been fairly useless up until this point. Tap phones to share data? iPhones can share data using airdrop - no tapping necessary. 

There's no question Apple is more controlling. But at the end of day, it is for a reason and it's with the best interests of the general consumer in mind.

Fatcat - Apple has _always been_ about design and lifestyle. It's why they have been so successful. I'm surprised that you see this as a departure when it's really nothing new at all. It's certainly more obvious now, but that has alway been a part of Apple. 

I also don't understand why you consider going into new categories like payments and wearables is a bad thing. It can't do anything but positively affect sales of their existing hardware. Are you saying you'd be more bullish on AAPL if they didn't announce a payments service? That makes very little sense to me.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Are you saying you'd be more bullish on AAPL if they didn't announce a payments service? That makes very little sense to me.


i'm saying i'd be bullish on apple if there was good money ahead in the things they do well like phones, tablets and devices ... apple is and has always been a hardware company ... and their hardware, until the latest year or so, has been second-to-none, in the mobile space they now have serious competition

their software and cloud services are universally awful, they understand design but they do not build best-of-breed software and they are leagues behind amazon and google and even microsoft in cloud services not to mention search and social (even siri is cr#p)

their traditional strength is being taken away from them by hardware makers who have succeeded in copying them

they are pivoting in a new direction because they have too ... and that brings big risks


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Matt, it's interesting that you still have yet to offer me an appropriate alternative to Apple Pay, in spite of your claim that there are so many options out there and it's nothing special. Still waiting.
> 
> It's clear you have some sort of vendetta against Apple. That's fine, but you obviously don't understand the company. You call it fanboy talk but their philosophy is obvious in their products. Of course they don't release a technology until it's ready and fits their goals. Is that a bad thing?!


There are many technologies that compete in different ways, texting to park has been out for a while, paywave isn't new, and there have been a multiple of others. 
I guess you don't consider them "appropriate", because you haven't explained how Apple Pay is any better.
So how is Apple Pay so much better than Paywave or Tap &Go? They're already widely deployed and can be used by devices ranging from cheap plastic cards to smartphones.

I don't have a vendetta against Apple, I own their stock, I own their products. I have quite a good understanding of the company.
I just don't agree that they make the "best and most useful implementations", that's it.

One particular thing I think is important is the mindset of Apple and their customers, that the restrictions aren't that important. 
They may or may not be, but they're there, and Apple proponents tend to minimize them.

For a recent example, iOS devices will have NFC, but your apps won't be able to use it (it will be locked to Apple pay according to reports http://www.cultofmac.com/296093/apple-confirms-iphone-6-nfc-apple-pay/ )
Apple has a history of such arbitrary restrictions. I'm sure that they'll offer an excuse that will be defended vigorously, until such a point that Apple changes their mind.


----------



## GOB

I've explained it several times, but I'll do it again:

Security: anybody can take your card and use paywave. Apple Pay requires biometric authentificiation. Apple Pay also provides secure online purchases, which is a massive source of fraud. There are some sites that require an addition pin to make purchases but those are few and far between and much more cumbersome than using Apple Pay. Apple Pay uses tokenization - your credit card number is never revealed to anyone. 

UI: Apple Pay is automatic - all you do is present your phone to the reader with your authentificiation. No PIN numbers, no pulling up an app, no selecting a card. It's dead easy and that is the real difference that is going to make people change their behaviour. 

You are completely ignoring the issue of fraud which costs many billions of dollars. Those are savings that can be passed down to the consumer. Banks are pushing Apple Pay in a huge way in the US right now - they are very interested in people using it for the security advantages it offers. 

Look at the Target and Home Depot breaches. Those would not have happened with Apple Pay. 

It's not just about the NFC part of it. The online security it provides is huge and Is currently unmatched.

I don't understand your fascination with texting to park. It's a very specific use case and has little relevance to the discussion. I don't know about where you are but in Vancouver it requires using an app and supplying your credit card information to a 3rd party. In other words, not at all secure. 

Summary - UI, security and backing from the banks and card companies. I don't see any real competition on a big enough scale. Even if there is competiton that's fine, as Apple Pay will remain the best option for the most affluent portion of the population (iOS users). In fact, I hope Android users do get a comparable service because credit card fraud affects everyone and it should be eliminated if possible.

I find it very hard to believe that you own Apple products given your disparaging comments on the way they limit features etc and you apparent disregard for their strengths. Exactly what products do you own and why? Very curious.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> I've explained it several times, but I'll do it again:
> 
> Security: anybody can take your card and use paywave. Apple Pay requires biometric authentificiation. Apple Pay also provides secure online purchases, which is a massive source of fraud. There are some sites that require an addition pin to make purchases but those are few and far between and much more cumbersome than using Apple Pay. Apple Pay uses tokenization - your credit card number is never revealed to anyone.
> 
> UI: Apple Pay is automatic - all you do is present your phone to the reader with your authentificiation. No PIN numbers, no pulling up an app, no selecting a card. It's dead easy and that is the real difference that is going to make people change their behaviour.
> 
> You are completely ignoring the issue of fraud which costs many billions of dollars. Those are savings that can be passed down to the consumer. Banks are pushing Apple Pay in a huge way in the US right now - they are very interested in people using it for the security advantages it offers.
> 
> Look at the Target and Home Depot breaches. Those would not have happened with Apple Pay.
> 
> I don't understand your fascination with texting to park. It's a very specific use case and has little relevance to the discussion.
> 
> Summary - UI, security and backing from the banks and card companies. I don't see any real competition on a big enough scale. Even if there is competiton that's fine, as Apple Pay will remain the best option for the most affluent portion of the population (iOS users). In fact, I hope Android users do get a comparable service because credit card fraud affects everyone and it should be eliminated if possible.


So the way you describe it, to make Paywave mobile equivalent to Apple Pay we need.
1. Phone with a paywave compatible NFC chip.
2. The app to self launch and function in the background when presented with an appropriate NFC signal.
3. The app to use the pre-selected default card.
4. The app to use biometric identification (eg the fingerprint scanner)
5. Payment tokens are sent, not necessarily the full card number.

I'm not sure if current implementations use #2 yet, but it seems like the Apple Pay doesn't really offer anything more than Paywave, and paywave is backwards compatible with a simple plastic card.

Since you mention fraud, how is an Apple Pay based token more secure than the industry standard token system that is/will be used by all the major card companies?


----------



## GOB

Yes, pretty much. I'm not saying Apple is the only company that can do this, but they do currently have the best implementation by far. No phone today with fingerprint scanner comes close to usability of Touch ID. It would be quite funny to see someone try to do mobile payments with the S5 scanner. 

I don't believe the Home Depot and Target breaches (and countless others) would have occurred if tokenization is already implemented. No question that the industry will move toward that and Apple's may not be anything special. But the fact is it will be there, and soon. The advantage Apple Pay has is the biometrics on top of that, to ensure purchase are authenticated by the intended user. Also, user data is not tracked, which cannot be said for Google Wallet and possibly other services. 

I'm not sure what exactly you are arguing about. My point is Apple Pay is a great implementation of a much needed service that has the backing of all the major players. It's going to be a huge success for Apple. I honestly don't care if there are other options, because there certainly will be. 

What is the point you're trying to make? That Apple is nothing special? I care more about the investing thesis of Apple Pay and the benefits it's going to provide to all parties involved, not whether NFC has been around for years or whether this makes Apple special in somebody's eyes.


----------



## fatcat

gob, you are underselling the complexities of using a phone for payment:
you have to dig the phone out
make sure it is on, use your fingerprint or password to open your phone
point it at the receiving device and authenticate
all of this of course can happen quickly but in some cases will be time consuming

i think the time to find your debit card and wave it in front of the machine is about the same

security for apple pay remains to be seen

in the case of debit cards, it will fall on the banks to cover fraud
we now live in a world where eventually every scrap of important info on everyone will be sold on the black market somewhere
it will fall on the banks and stores to establish security

again the number of people even capable of using apple pay in the beginning is a very small number

compare that to Current-C and you have a pool of potential users that dwarfs apple (remember Current-C will work on *ANY* smartphone) 

and it will be as secure as apple pay:

*Passcode Protected*
A personal 4-digit code ensures only you can access your account.

*Paycode Protected*
Every transaction is guarded by a secure Paycode that's unique to every purchase.

*Cloud Protected*
Your information lives on our highly encrypted cloud – so it's never shared or stored on your phone.

View attachment 1841


----------



## GOB

One small problem - virtually nobody has heard of Current-C. Literally billions now know about Apple Pay. 

Actually, more problems. A 4-digit code is neither as secure not as convenient as Touch ID. And storing credit card information in the cloud? Really? Is that supposed to be a selling point?


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> One small problem - virtually nobody has heard of Current-C. Literally billions now know about Apple Pay.
> 
> Actually, more problems. A 4-digit code is neither as secure not as convenient as Touch ID. And storing credit card information in the cloud? Really? Is that supposed to be a selling point?


i think at this point we have to take both promises of security with a grain of salt ... the proof will be in the execution ... apple has had its share of security problems over the years

whether or not current-c is not as well known is a moot point since it will be easy to download the app as soon as the retailer tells the customer

you are conveniently ignoring the fact that this will work on any smartphone (possibly even even apples) this is a *huge* advantage over apple

right now current-c has a potential customer base of 162 million
right now apple pay has a potential customer base of 30+ million

you don't see that as a competitive advantage ? ... really ?


----------



## GOB

An excellent article on payments and why Apple will be so successful:

http://acceptingpayments.quora.com/...t-At-National-Retail-Stores?srid=hiKK&share=1


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> i think at this point we have to take both promises of security with a grain of salt ... the proof will be in the execution ... apple has had its share of security problems over the years
> 
> whether or not current-c is not as well known is a moot point since it will be easy to download the app as soon as the retailer tells the customer
> 
> you are conveniently ignoring the fact that this will work on any smartphone (possibly even even apples) this is a *huge* advantage over apple
> 
> right now current-c has a potential customer base of 162 million
> right now apple pay has a potential customer base of 30+ million
> 
> you don't see that as a competitive advantage ? ... really ?


It's not a competitive advantage because a merchant or bank doesn't have to choose between one or the other. What don't you understand about this? This is not the same as platform wars where developers go to where the money is. This is simply a payment system where pretty much all the work has already been done. As long as Apple continues to offer the best payment option on iOS, and they will since it will be built directly into the OS, it will make them money. The number of other users is irrelevant, besides the fact that the more iPhone users there are, the more money they will make. Understand?

The infrastructure is already in place for Apple Pay, and will be as long as retailers continue to add NFC terminals. It's not an iPhone-specific device.

You are arguing about things that do not matter. I'll eat my hat if I see more "pay with Current-C" options than "pay with Apple Pay" online. It's hilarious.

Just like Windows and Mac, iOS and Android, there will be Apple Pay and some other option for those out of the Apple ecosystem. And Apple is perfectly fine with that.

Just to refresh your memory, android has a customer base of well over a billion, while iOS is far lower. Yet developers invariably develop for iOS first. You continue to disregard anything but sheer population, not that it even matters in this case.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> It's not a competitive advantage because a merchant or bank doesn't have to choose between one or the other. What don't you understand about this? This is not the same as platform wars where developers go to where the money is. This is simply a payment system where pretty much all the work has already been done. As long as Apple continues to offer the best payment option on iOS, and they will since it will be built directly into the OS, it will make them money. The number of other users is irrelevant, besides the fact that the more iPhone users there are, the more money they will make. Understand?
> 
> The infrastructure is already in place for Apple Pay, and will be as long as retailers continue to add NFC terminals. It's not an iPhone-specific device.
> 
> You are arguing about things that do not matter. I'll eat my hat if I see more "pay with Current-C" options than "pay with Apple Pay" online. It's hilarious.
> 
> Just like Windows and Mac, iOS and Android, there will be Apple Pay and some other option for those out of the Apple ecosystem. And Apple is perfectly fine with that.
> 
> Just to refresh your memory, android has a customer base of well over a billion, while iOS is far lower. Yet developers invariably develop for iOS first. You continue to disregard anything but sheer population, not that it even matters in this case.


as it now stands, every retailer in the united states could accept apple pay but only about 30 million people can *actually use it* because you must have an iphone-6 (i have a 4s and so can't use apple pay even if i want to), it will work with an 5, 5s and 5c only in conjunction with an apple watch

so, we are talking at present about just a few million people who can even use apple pay

current-c can be used by about 162 million people right now today by simply downloading an app to their phone
the app doesn't transmit any stealable information
more importantly it doesn't require that merchants invest in nfc terminals (something many retailers *don't want to do*)

you are certainly correct that it will be up to the merchant to decide what to accept or not and that will likely be dictated by customers

merchants can and will have many different payment options available

my point is simply that apple will have plenty of competition in that space (as they will in phones and watches and tablets and most other areas)


----------



## indexxx

Had to link this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y


----------



## GOB

One of my favourites!

We are going around in circles. Your point is there will be competition, I've already said many times that yes, there will be. 

Can't wait to Current-C take off!


----------



## bayview

No Q forming for this iPhone 6


----------



## indexxx

bayview said:


> No Q forming for this iPhone 6


That's freaking retarded. Not into ostentatious displays. (Picks up and strums brand new Taylor guitar...)


----------



## fatcat

i have had fun arguing against a company whose products i have been buying and recommending for almost 30 years
i bought a mac plus in 1987 and could build a small house with the imacs, laptops,newtons,ipods, ipads, tvs, and routers i have purchased form apple over the years

it is at present, a very strong company, but i see much of their magic (and stock price) as a function of market expectations ... 

people expect apple to do things that no other company does and lead the way into new areas

unlike previous product launches, i thought this one was a stumble 

though i am now thinking that perhaps they are sandbagging on the watch, that in fact there is more to the watch than we we really see, they may well have done it again by creating a product that is more functional than it appears and i might buy a watch ...as it now stands i would not buy something that needs to connect to an iphone to even function and has a one-day battery life and hardly see the normals doing so either ... 
we'll see, as i say, i think they are holding something back on the watch ... i hope they are 

as to digital payments, my point is simple, this is going to be a huge, gigantic, mega space with vast amounts of money to be made so apple will be up against a lot of big money and big players

finally, the future is in the cloud computing and web services, people want to access their data on all their devices and have it safely stored in the cloud and as someone who uses it a lot, i think google is miles ahead of apple as is amazon and to a lesser extent microsoft 

compare siri to google now ... there is no comparison, siri is simply not up to the task, nor is apple maps vs google or icloud, apple has no youtube, apple tv has never lived up to the hype (i own one of course)

so apple has some challenges ahead, they are shifting direction, and when big companies shift direction they take risks
a courageous man would short them and a wise man would not

for the record, i am more of a silly walk man than an argument clinic guy


----------



## GOB

There's a fine line between courage and foolishness. I'm not saying AAPL will never dip but the fundamental case for a short isn't there. 

If you look at the financials you simply cannot say that market expectations and future innovations are priced into the stock. They are not. AAPL is a growing company with their existing product line, yet they trade a discount to the market. This is without considering the ~$160B of their market cap that is taken up by their cash hoard. When you look at the numbers, it's not really an opinion and not something that can be debated. AAPL is priced for negative growth and zero forward innovation.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> There's a fine line between courage and foolishness. I'm not saying AAPL will never dip but the fundamental case for a short isn't there.
> 
> If you look at the financials you simply cannot say that market expectations and future innovations are priced into the stock. They are not. AAPL is a growing company with their existing product line, yet they trade a discount to the market. This is without considering the ~$160B of their market cap that is taken up by their cash hoard. When you look at the numbers, it's not really an opinion and not something that can be debated. AAPL is priced for negative growth and zero forward innovation.


I agree there, a short is simply ridiculous.
They make a profitable product that they sell at very good margins.
IMO they're not overvalued, even assuming minimal growth, if anything they're at worst a decent hold/buy.

Realistically they've got some appealing product and services that should provide for decent growth going forward, with even moderate growth forecasts they appear undervalued.

Good company, great stock!


----------



## andrewf

I have to agree about financials. Shorting AAPL at current valuations seems far too risky.

I think the debate is whether AAPL will be growing profits/free cash flow on trend, or whether profits/FCF will drift downwards due to weakness in iPhone (which pretty much is AAPL--2/3rds of its non-cash valuation). What might happen if the move from subsidies to financing of handsets takes place and AAPL has a hard time selling phones at a huge premium to equivalent Android devices ($800 - $900 vs $500 - $600), not to mention saturation of the smartphone market.


----------



## GOB

It is certainly a risk, though I don't think it's as imminent as people think. The promotions that the big carriers in the US are offering people to get iPhones and sign on with them are unreal. iPhone users use a lot of data and have expensive phone plans - they are very profitable and valuable customers for carriers. If anything right now, the subsidies are even stronger. The rest of the world may be a different story.

I do know many people here in Canada who are just buying the iPhone unlocked as doing the math, they save money over time. Rather than switching to an Android phone and changing ecosystems, people may be more likely to simply prolong their upgrade cycles. This would cause some impact for sure, but as long as more people continue to use iPhones Apple will be fine. 

It's extremely impressive that iPhone share increased in the US before the iPhone 6 launch (and after the Galaxy S5 launch). That's an extremely bullish indicator for Apple that they are able to grow their share with a year old device in the face of new flagship phones from competitors as well as much cheaper and competent unlocked phones.


----------



## fatcat

to be clear, though i joke about shorting apple i am using it in the sense that "short"=prospects may be dimmed somewhat as they shift in a new direction

i think we are seeing weakness in ipads and slowing sales in imacs, not certain about laptops (why are ipad sales slowing ? ... like tv's they are just too good)

in emerging markets they have huge competition in phones

ipad and iphone account for almost 75% of revenue
if these segments start to show any slippage apple is going to hit a real rough patch

itunes and services account for a small number, like around 10% and this is an area where they are trying to grow, namely services

i think the apple watch, as it now stands is a weak product interms of it salability, it may be a strong product technically in some ways (though a 1 day battery life and the need to tether to an iphone is a total deal breaker for me and i think many others)

if i am wrong about the watch, it may start to add to the top line
but apple seems to be clearly signalling a shift in new directions

_actually_ shorting apple would be a highly risky move


----------



## andrewf

Smart watches in general are going to be pretty niche for at least the next couple of years. I don't think any of the software/feature offerings are compelling enough to justify the cost and hassle of another device requiring daily charging. The most compelling use case is fitness (for a niche audience), and there are dedicated products that do it better and don't require daily charging.


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Smart watches in general are going to be pretty niche for at least the next couple of years. I don't think any of the software/feature offerings are compelling enough to justify the cost and hassle of another device requiring daily charging. The most compelling use case is fitness (for a niche audience), and there are dedicated products that do it better and don't require daily charging.


i agree absolutely, there will be a niche with dedicated fans including techies, the health conscious, fitness and so on but this is not a product that will be adopting wide usage for many years

it must have better battery life, be very easy to use, be small, work independently of a phone and be affordable - the apple watch meets none of those criteria though perhaps the screen is close to being not too geeky large


----------



## dotnet_nerd

I getting sick of Apple. They betrayed my privacy. When I got my ipad I signed up my cloud account with a unique email address that NO ONE else has. Now that account is getting spammed horribly. Somehow they leaked my address to spammers.

Just ranting, sorry.


----------



## GOB

> “Apple Inc.’s newest iPhones are fueling a surge in trade-ins of Android-based smartphones, threatening to loosen Samsung Electronics Co.’s grip on the large-screen smartphone segment as users switch allegiances,” Tim Higgins reports for Bloomberg. “When Apple’s main product, featuring bigger displays and faster chips, goes on sale starting in Australia, they may be best remembered as the generation of iPhones that won over consumers from rival smartphones. Trade-ins of Samsung phones with smartphone reseller Gazelle Inc. tripled last week and about a quarter of potential iPhone 6 buyers are new to Apple’s ecosystem, according to RBC.”
> 
> “Buzz has been building since the new iPhones were unveiled on Sept. 9 at an event near Apple’s headquarters, with pre-orders topping 4 million units in the first 24 hours and surpassing earlier releases. A third of Android users polled by Boston-based Gazelle said they’re likely to upgrade to the iPhone 6, with 39 percent saying the bigger screen was driving the decision,” Higgins reports. “Last year, a 10th of the smartphones traded in when the iPhone 5s and 5c went on sale were Android-based devices, according to Chris Sullivan, Gazelle’s CEO. ‘We’re seeing a higher propensity to switch,’ Sullivan said. ‘The combination of the screen size and the functionality’ indicates that ‘this is going to be a strong and compelling product for Android users to switch,’ he said.”
> 
> “RBC Capital Markets polled 6,000 consumers and found that ‘an impressive 26 percent of respondents who intend to purchase an iPhone are new’ to Apple’s ecosystem, with the majority coming from Android, Amit Daryanani, an analyst at RBC, wrote in a note to investors,” Higgins reports. “‘This is going to be a nightmare for Samsung,’ Tim Bajarin, an analyst at Creative Strategies Inc., said of the larger-screen iPhones.”


There is very little reason apart from cost for the average person to stay with Android now. And Apple never competes on cost in the traditional sense, because they don't need to and it would be detrimental to their long term business model. I fully expect iPhone market share to reach and exceed 45% in the US and Canada not long from now.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> There is very little reason apart from cost for the average person to stay with Android now.


:biggrin: ... and why would something as insignificant as "cost" even matter ? :hopelessness:


----------



## jtc

dotnet_nerd said:


> I getting sick of Apple. They betrayed my privacy. When I got my ipad I signed up my cloud account with a unique email address that NO ONE else has. Now that account is getting spammed horribly. Somehow they leaked my address to spammers.
> 
> Just ranting, sorry.



At least you didn't upload any nudes. Could be worse. =-P


----------



## jtc

GOB said:


> There is very little reason apart from cost for the average person to stay with Android now.


Is there any reason for the average person to go over to Apple?


----------



## indexxx

dotnet_nerd said:


> I getting sick of Apple. They betrayed my privacy. When I got my ipad I signed up my cloud account with a unique email address that NO ONE else has. Now that account is getting spammed horribly. Somehow they leaked my address to spammers.
> 
> Just ranting, sorry.


It's far more likely that some web spider or whatever generated your address. Read this from Tim Cook:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tim-cook-your-personal-data-is-safe-with-us-2014-09-18


----------



## james4beach

I'm not that impressed with my Apple product; at the office I have a Macbook Pro which was purchased just a few months ago. It's a very expensive laptop.

After hearing Apple cult members rant and rave, I thought this was going to be the most amazing, solid, stable product I've ever seen. It's proved to be far from stable. I use it quite heavily and it certainly has significant problems. The networking stack flakes out and becomes inoperable until reboot; standard applications (like even the text editor) crash pretty regularly; the mail client crashes; sometimes the screen corrupts and becomes unrecoverable after transferring displays between projectors and external displays.

Perhaps I got bad hardware? Yes maybe... but paying that kind of money, I expect perfection. It's got to be PERFECT. This thing is not anywhere close to perfect, it works just the same as any other flaky laptop I have, with occasional crashes and bugs. So why should I pay double the price of a competing laptop? I don't understand it.

In fact I have a very old Acer brand netbook that has proved to be more stable than the Macbook Pro. I'm shopping around for a new home computer and it certainly won't be Apple; they are not worth the premium price.


----------



## lonewolf

I have an apple ipod the battery will only last about 15 minutes after being fully charged


----------



## indexxx

james4beach said:


> I'm not that impressed with my Apple product; at the office I have a Macbook Pro which was purchased just a few months ago. It's a very expensive laptop.
> 
> After hearing Apple cult members rant and rave, I thought this was going to be the most amazing, solid, stable product I've ever seen. It's proved to be far from stable. I use it quite heavily and it certainly has significant problems. The networking stack flakes out and becomes inoperable until reboot; standard applications (like even the text editor) crash pretty regularly; the mail client crashes; sometimes the screen corrupts and becomes unrecoverable after transferring displays between projectors and external displays.
> 
> Perhaps I got bad hardware? Yes maybe... but paying that kind of money, I expect perfection. It's got to be PERFECT. This thing is not anywhere close to perfect, it works just the same as any other flaky laptop I have, with occasional crashes and bugs. So why should I pay double the price of a competing laptop? I don't understand it.
> 
> In fact I have a very old Acer brand netbook that has proved to be more stable than the Macbook Pro. I'm shopping around for a new home computer and it certainly won't be Apple; they are not worth the premium price.


Hard to say- my 4-year old Macbook has run flawlessly from day one, never a hiccup and I'm hard on my stuff. And I'm still getting over 7 hours of battery life. Have you taken it in to an Apple store? Apple service is always free unless it's a hardware issue, which anyway would still be under warranty in your case.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

indexxx said:


> It's far more likely that some web spider or whatever generated your address. Read this from Tim Cook:
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tim-cook-your-personal-data-is-safe-with-us-2014-09-18


Impossible. I run a VPS and used a unique domain name that is not associated with any website. There's no web content whatsoever for spiders to see. A TOTALLY unique address that does not exist anywhere else except with Apple. 

Much of the spam I get sent to that address is Apple-related, like ads for ipad accessories and so forth.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> There is very little reason apart from cost for the average person to stay with Android now. And Apple never competes on cost in the traditional sense, because they don't need to and it would be detrimental to their long term business model. I fully expect iPhone market share to reach and exceed 45% in the US and Canada not long from now.


There is very little reason, apart from cost of, having an entourage follow you and deal with such pesky things as answering your own phone as well.

Android/iPhone (and others) really is personal preference. They all have the same basic functionality, and different trade offs.


----------



## fatcat

indexxx said:


> It's far more likely that some web spider or whatever generated your address. Read this from Tim Cook:
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tim-cook-your-personal-data-is-safe-with-us-2014-09-18


my response to tim would be "well, maybe not yet anyway"

with apple pay, apple will know what software you use, what apps you use, your location inside stores with ibeacon, your map data, and now they will now everything little or big thing you purchase with your phone in detail, the service or product, where you bought it and when you bought ... they will have your credit card/s on file and so on

apple will know a lot about you and like every mega corporation in the world, what comes out of their mouth, what they promise and what they say is not worth shite (not to mention the inevitable hacking) ... profit motivates apple and when they find out how much money is in personal data, all those promises will fly out the window

better to spread your purchase and information around with a range of tech companies, give a little to them all but not the whole thing to anyone ... i would never use google wallet or apple pay (or paypal) to pay for stuff that i buy in person at stores, why give them that data ?


----------



## Causalien

An example of over reaching by thinking they can serve you better content by knowing more about you.

As I travel through different countries, my facebook feed changes. I see less updates from people in other continent and my updates reach less to people in other continents. When in reality, I want just the most recent update out of everyone. I don't need facebook to tell me to pay more attention to people in Europe.


----------



## kcowan

One of the irritants for me is when all the ads switch to Spanish when I head to Mexico. I can read it but I don't. It is more difficult to ignore an ad in a foreign language. Is Telmex trying to tell me something about their service, instead of promoting some purchase?


----------



## fatcat

the onion reviews the new iphone and samsung galaxy s5 :biggrin:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/iphone-6-plus-vs-samsung-galaxy-s5,36969/


----------



## kcowan

Where is my flip phone?:tiger:


----------



## m3s

Causalien said:


> As I travel through different countries, my facebook feed changes. I see less updates from people in other continent and my updates reach less to people in other continents. When in reality, I want just the most recent update out of everyone. I don't need facebook to tell me to pay more attention to people in Europe.


Yup.. I click news feed - "most recent" Not sure if that shows everything either

In this day of "targeted ads" I am confused why I get so many ads in languages I don't understand. Some of my apps still send notifications in the language when I installed it or something..

The worst offender is google search results.. I don't mind translating the best source with chrome. The internet should be global


----------



## andrewf

Well the inevitable flaw has surfaced... iPhone 6 Plus is wont to bend in your pocket, for at least some people. In the video below, Lew (a Canadian tech reviewer) of Unbox Therapy mentions how he has had it for just a week already it has a slight bend. He then proceeds to see how it responds to a bit more force.

iPhone 6 Plus bend test: http://youtu.be/znK652H6yQM

For contrast, Galaxy Note 3 bend test: http://youtu.be/FwM4ypi3at0

I know people are down on plastic, but sometimes plastic is a superior material from a durability perspective even if it doesn't feel as premium. Form vs. function...

I also question Apple's decision to make the 6 thinner. There was already one glaring issue--the camera bump prevents the phone from sitting flat on a table and puts the camera lens in harms way. Now the other issue is the thinner construction making the phone significantly more susceptible to bending force.


----------



## sags

I can see a market developing for custom leather holsters.........like the pistol holders in the old west.

Instead of bullets..........the holster can store usb sticks and spare charged battery power.

When a phone rings........people can "quick draw" it out.............


----------



## fatcat

I think the 5.5 is going to turn out be too big.

The 4.7 seems alright and maybe a 5.1 or 5.2 but I think the 5.5 is going to get a lot of second thoughts based on the size of having to tote it around. 

At least in the developed world where there are many more options to access the net. 

In the third world as a primary computing device it might do better.


----------



## andrewf

Why? Poor people aren't going to pay $900 for a phone when they can buy a tablet for $150 with a bigger screen.


----------



## MrMatt

fatcat said:


> I think the 5.5 is going to turn out be too big.
> 
> The 4.7 seems alright and maybe a 5.1 or 5.2 but I think the 5.5 is going to get a lot of second thoughts based on the size of having to tote it around.
> 
> At least in the developed world where there are many more options to access the net.
> 
> In the third world as a primary computing device it might do better.


5.5 is too big for me, but the large Android phones in that category sell well.


----------



## andrewf

Worth keeping in mind that the the 6 plus is significantly bigger than even Samsung's phablet, the Note 3, despite having a smaller screen. This is due to the large bezels.


----------



## CuriousReader

andrewf said:


> Worth keeping in mind that the the 6 plus is significantly bigger than even Samsung's phablet, the Note 3, despite having a smaller screen. This is due to the large bezels.


and iPhone 6+ has a hidden feature of being able to bend easily


----------



## brad

sags said:


> I can see a market developing for custom leather holsters.........like the pistol holders in the old west.


Guess what? http://www.oopsmark.ca/collections/body/products/iphone-holster


----------



## fatcat

there are actually very few phones at 5.5 and above
the note would be an example and sony has now very nice huge phones
that they are _selling well_ doesn't mean they are a large category

these are not "pocket" phones, they are purse phones
especially if you don't want an _accidentally_ curved screen as a result :hopelessness:

most android phones are staying in the 4.5 - 5.2 

size and one handed operation is important to a lot of people
i suspect apple will be keeping their 5S for some time to come



> Why? Poor people aren't going to pay $900 for a phone when they can buy a tablet for $150 with a bigger screen.


andrew, i think in parts of the developed world, it is the phone infrastructure people rely on, not wifi which isn't as widely available, so a large screen phone makes sense, but part of my argument with gob is that these people certainly can't afford the new iphone

there is a very healthy market buying our used phones, thats where a lot of them are going


----------



## GOB

One would think if somebody actually had a bent phone they would go to Apple about it instead of whining incessantly over social media. Out of the millions of phones already sold, how many people have contacted Apple about this issue? Nine. No, not nine thousand, not nine hundred, but nine. Let's assume out of the 10+ million sold that 3 million are the 6+ model. That's 0.003%.

As usual, the issue is ridiculously overblown and the reality seems to be lost of most of you, as well as the rest of the world. I'm not saying it's a complete non-issue, and maybe 0.003% is 0.003% too much (or whatever the number is) but you'd think half the phones are bending with the coverage this is getting. 

The iOS8 update fiasco, however, is a real issue and Apple is 100% at fault for pushing out a piece of crap update like that without proper QA.


----------



## andrewf

Well, Apple PR says that they have received 9 complaints. I would be astonished if there were only 9 bent phones out there. Nonetheless, in a comparable test, the iPhone 6 Plus is considerably more prone to bending than the comparable Samsung device. For a company that trades on premium build quality, I would say Apple has erred.


----------



## GOB

Phones from all manufacturers have been bent before. When you're talking about a few devices out of several million having a problem, it doesn't matter that iPhone bends more easily than another phone. Phone bendability has never been an issue in real world use, and Apple has done their usual testing of real world use cases, which a properly build iPhone passes. If there are any defective device so and there always are, they will be replaced. 

Build quality is not directly correlated with indestructiveness. I'm much more interested in which phone holds up best in real world use (both hardware and software). I really don't care that my phone might bend if I apply all my force and try to bend - I have no intention of submitting my near $1000 device to that kind of torture, no matter how careless I may be. 

There is a reason old iPhones sell for so much more than any other phone despite having the same or similar new cost. iPhones have superior build quality and last longer. I don't expect this to change with the iPhone 6/6+. 

I will take my thinner aluminum phone that I can bend if I try my best to snap it in two over a thicker plastic one that I cannot. 

We are about about expensive phones, not silly putty. Why are people subjecting these devices to such pressure. Forget about bending, what about the screen cracking?


----------



## andrewf

They are bending in pockets. Note the video I posted. The phone was already bent before subjected to more extreme force.


----------



## doctrine

I received my iPhone 6 this week. It's a pretty sweet piece of kit. It's also 6.9 mm thick and remarkably light. You'd have to be an idiot to sit on it. It's not going to bend in a jacket pocket but sure it might in a back pants pocket on a hard surface. It's not a block of solid steel. I'm surprised only 9 of 10,000,000 bent - there are a lot of idiots out there.


----------



## fatcat

i think the 5.5 will see a big whack of returns
you have to be carrying a purse or man-bag or that thing is going to just get too big

if you travel light, i think the 4.7 (or the old-fashioned 4) will ultimately be the winner

a lot of apple fans have been waiting so long for a big phone that they have gone slightly nuts and just bought the biggest sucker they could find and i think will be having second thoughts


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> i
> 
> a lot of apple fans have been waiting so long for a big phone that they have gone slightly nuts and just bought the biggest sucker they could find and i think will be having second thoughts


I think Blackberry will have the same problem with their new passport-size phone.


----------



## GOB

The 4.7" should be the top seller. But there are large markets that seem to prefer massive phones - mostly in Asia.


----------



## GOB

I'm not sure I fully believe that video as there are inaccuracies that lead me to question its validity. 



> Notice the video shows the iPhone 6 Plus drastically bending at 1:40 minutes, and the time on the phone at that point displays 2:26 PM. The man in the video then proceeds to explain around 2:35 minutes into the video that he just finished bending the phone with his thumbs.
> 
> But thereâs one problem with that version of events: The iPhone 6 Plus he supposedly âjustâ bent displays the time 1:59 PM around 2:45 minutes into the video, roughly 27 minutes before the smartphone is shown succumbing to little pressure.


Bashing Apple is big business, especially on heels of a massive product launch. The ad revenue created by a 27 million view YouTube video is massive. I believe what Apple says over some random video that doesn't seem to add up. Especially since Apple has shown the kind of testing they put their phones through.


----------



## KaeJS

Are you still trying to defend your beloved?

The i6 is a flop. As we all knew it would be.

Look at that classic bending. Multibillion dollar company trying to save money on expenses by using aluminum, one of the softest metals, causes the iPhone 6 to bend.
I am sure consumers love this.

Wait until the Note 4 and Note Edge come out, paired with the Gear S.

A far more superior device and companion.
At least the Note Edge is _innovative_


----------



## cashinstinct

I am sure Samsung would love 10 million phones sold in a couple of days kind of flop


----------



## GOB

Sorry Kae but I'm tired of dancing around the fact that you're a complete idiot. Yeah, the best selling smartphone in history is a "flop". You can love it or you can hate it but the fact that you call it a flop is sad indication of your (lack of) intellect. 

Enjoy scalping your pennies with Questrade.


----------



## GOB

http://bit.ly/1mxIC47


----------



## KaeJS

Lack of intellect?

The lack of intellect is in the consumer. This is why you have so many people buying it in their teens and people who are computer/software illiterate.
It's exactly why the iphone is the same iteration year over year. It's so simplistic it is geared towards the iSheep.

I have never disputed profitability of AAPL. However, their products are inferior to most android, specifically Samsung.

I don't know what you were trying to prove with your samsung youtube bending video. All phones will break if you are trying to bend them _on purpose_. The iPhone is bending by accident. Not only is it bending, but the iOS has it's own set of issues and bugs.

The phone is a flop and so is the watch. Doesn't mean it isn't profitable.

Ford is profitable, and their vehicles are inferior to other manufacturers, as well.


----------



## GOB

Except for the fact that iOS users completely annihilate users in terms of usage stats, productivity, income and education, you're correct. Which is to say you're completely wrong as usual.

I'm sorry you don't fall into the category, but a person who is well educated making a higher income is in most cases intellectually superior to those who are not. 

I use my iPhone for productivity and efficiency, because between my well-paying and demanding job, I have other interests and responsibilities to fill my time instead of rooting my phone and dealing with malware. 

Sorry to be so harsh but I don't take kindly to idiots pretending iPhones are for illiterates. Quite the opposite, really, given the massive advertising push between OEMs and carriers to sell Android products to those who don't know any better.



> conducted by Aptilon, a pharmaceutical sales and marketing channel company, by the end of this year about 61 percent of US physicians will be using iPhones. About 9 percent will use an Android smartphone and 9 percent will be using a BlackBerry smartphone, according to the survey. Overall 84 percent of US physicians will have a smartphone of some kind, the poll of 341 “HCPs” or healthcare providers found. The poll was conducted in February.


In before "doctors are stupid"



> 68% of lawyers use an iPhone
> The TechnoLawyer Report states that 50.3% of respondents use an iPhone, 29.4% use an Android smartphone and 14.3% use a BlackBerry. However, just over a third of TechnoLawyer subscribers are not attorneys; they include technology consultants, law firm IT managers, paralegals, etc. Thus, I asked Squillante if he would provide me attorney-specific information that I could share with iPhone J.D. readers and he was kind enough to break down the numbers for me.
> The results for attorneys are: 68% iPhone, 37% Android, 13% BlackBerry, 4% Windows Phone, 2% other smartphone, and 5% don't report using a smartphone at all. This adds up to over 100% because some attorneys have multiple devices, such as a work phone and a personal phone.


.

Doesn't fit so well with your brilliant theory, does it?


----------



## KaeJS

GOB said:


> Except for the fact that iOS users completely annihilate users in terms of usage stats, productivity, income and education, you're correct. Which is to say you're completely wrong as usual.


Usage Stats: I'm sure the contributing factor here is a ton of users simply playing mindless games on their iphone.

Productivity: Where is the proof? I don't know where the extra productivity comes in from an iPhone in comparison to a Samsung Note that has a stylus and a range of features.

Income: You are probably correct in this regard. The iPhone is a highly overpriced product for what you get.

Education: Depends on what your definition of education is. I would expect someone who is educated in anything other than software/tech/computers is "uneducated" in all other aspects, rendering their education useless. Just because someone knows how to perform surgery on a patient doesn't mean they know the first thing about a "good phone".

Not all android users spend time rooting their phones or getting malware. I am sure you must be aware of Cydia and PineApple, which is essentially the "root" version of an iPhone. The iPhone isn't the holy grail of security as you think it is. It is very easily hackable, but you are right that android is a lot more forgiving for developers.

You are not being harsh. You are stating your opinions.

You are wrong, however, saying that I don't fall into the educated category. I am educated enough to know why AAPL is successful, while still realizing that their product is a flop. I have also owned both products and have used MacBooks and iPads and the like.

You can be educated to the tits in agricultural studies - but you still might not know what a seed is in the tech world.


----------



## GOB

I'm talking about broad-based education, not specific industries. A good portion of the Android userbase has nothing more than a high school diploma, if that. Not that education or income is everything, but it is a good marker.

You still don't seem to know the definition of "flop", though.

Rave reviews from almost everybody
Best selling device in history 
Insatiable demand including a huge chunk from Android/Samsung switchers
Overblown bending issue that will be forgotten, just like every other issue from every other iPhone launch 
Flop?

What makes a good phone is not what an IT expert thinks - it's what the general consumer wants. The general consumer wants an iPhone, and cost is the only prohibitive factor for many (also carrier eligibility in some cases). iPhone has by far the highest customer satisfaction rate in the industry, and it's clear their userbase covers a wide range of people. Any simple data analysis would lead to the conclusion that it's the best phone on the market. 

One would think if people are using a superior Samsung device that they wouldn't be so eager to switch to such a basic device like the iPhone. So why do a greater percentage of Android users switch than the other way around?? Very intriguing.

Re: usage stats - they include web browsing, app usage and shopping. iPhone is the most used camera in the world. So pretty much the main functions of a smartphone.


----------



## KaeJS

I get it.

But are we talking about the consumer, or are we talking about the product?

I am specifically talking about the product. I don't care what the educational level is of a consumer unless their education is specific to the product they are buying. You could have spent your entire life becoming educated, but if you are not educated on what makes a cellular device a great product, then your opinion is not valid regardless of your education level.

I don't doubt there are many people with low education that have androids. They are cheaper phones than the iPhone and education is (in most cases) directly related to disposable income.

But this still does not mean the product lunch of the iPhone 6 was superb. It was a flop. It had issues (ie. bending and iOS). The product stinks, but it still sells because people are willing to buy it. I don't know why they are willing, but they are. Perhaps they are uneducated in what makes a cellular device a great product?


----------



## GOB

Or perhaps your opinion that the product stinks is not an educated one? What exactly are your qualifications? There are plenty of well-educated people in the tech world who would heartily disagree with you. Take a look at iPhone and Mac usage in Silicon Valley, for starters. That's probably the among the most tech-savvy places on earth. Although that data may be skewed as a lot of companies would be developing and testing on all devices.

Found this:


> The major and emerging tech hubs in the US overwhelmingly prefer iOS to Android.
> San Francisco and New York see significantly more iOS usage than Android usage.


You're really grasping at straws based on your own bias. You can't call a product a flop because it's inferior in your eyes. The success of a consumer product is determined by its success in the marketplace.


----------



## KaeJS

There are also many well-educated people who would agree with me.

Mac usage is (once again) not what I am talking about. Macs have their place and they are excellent products. As mentioned, I am specifically talking about the iPhone and even more specifically, the iPhone 6.

I am not calling the product a flop because it is inferior in my eyes. I am calling it a flop because of the issues that it has. Namely, the bending, iOS bugs, and the fact that it is essentially the same phone as every predecessor.

And yes, the success of a consumer product is determinded by its success in the marketplace. We can agree on this. But that still does not make it a great phone, just as how the Ford Escape is a horrible vehicle, but it is a flagship seller for Ford.


----------



## GOB

Every iPhone launch has had some kind of issue, usually with some mild basis in truth but mostly hyped up by the media. So if that's how you want to classify it, then pretty much every iPhone has been a flop. It just doesn't make sense. The bending is a non-issue - there may be a few select phones with defects as there are with every product. This is just what the media decided to focus on this time - it actually existed before with the 5/5s. There is no evidence aside from very rare instances that normal usage causes the phone to bend. Apple invited reporters into their testing facilities to show what kind of torture an iPhone 6 can withstand - it certainly exceeds regular use cases. 

The software update was a screw-up and an inexcusable one as I voiced in my earlier post. No argument there. It still doesn't make the iPhone 6 a flop. The issue has been resolved, and ironically because of the ridiculous bending fiasco nobody really cared about this, though in my opinion it's a much bigger issue. 

As for being "essentially the same phone" - that argument can be made for any smartphone today. The iPhone 6 builds on an already excellent device. Competitors are still scrambling to match the performance of the 1-year old 64-but A7 processor, and Apple just provided a performance and efficiency boost with the A8. The camera is unbelievably good. The payment system is going to be huge - no, including NFC is not innovative but all the work done on the back end and all the partnerships with the big players certainly is. 

If there is nothing attractive about the iPhone 6, then it wouldn't be spurring the biggest upgrade (and Android switching) cycle in iPhone history, would it? One would think it would be the same as any other.


----------



## andrewf

It doesn't even really have NFC in the sense that it has an Apple Pay transmitter/receiver that can't do anything else.


----------



## GOB

Yet it will be used far more often than the vast majority of Android users use NFC on their NFC-capable devices.


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## GOB

I'm not a huge fan of Consumer Reports, but at least their testing has some sort of scientific basis. 

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2014/09/consumer-reports-tests-iphone-6-bendgate/index.htm

Bottom line: the issue is overblown and the phone is just fine for real-world use. There is tradeoff in every design decision and Apple opted for premium look and feel, thinness and lightness. It's not a decision that sits well with everyone - in fact I would prefer a thicker phone to make the camera lens flush with the back. But I'll take metal over plastic any day. Apple never claimed to have the toughest phone out there, but it certainty tough enough and that should really be all that matters.


----------



## fatcat

the reason android users are not using nfc is not about the technology in the phones
it's about the lack of support for nfc options
apple is trying to change that, not surpisingly, in its own proprietary way
it will have plenty of competition and we will see how it all shakes out

as to iphone-6, i disagree with kae and think its probably a very good phone, even an excellent phone, but, in the meantime, android phones are also getting better and better and google hammers away at improving the android os

the point to me is that apple is losing its longtime advantage as the hardware and operating systems begins to resemble one another

for the umpteenth time i refer to tv's since the analogy is strong, brand now means basically nothing in televisions, people under 40 could care less about their tv brand

apple's advantage is getting thinner and thinner as other copy them

apple is currently a powerhouse but they need to make a shift to remain so and that has huge risks

they are not going into apple pay and $5000 watches for fun, they are doing it because they see the handwriting on the wal


----------



## fatcat

a little bit more on nfc and competition for apple pay

i just got this in mail from td bank:



> The TD Mobile App now includes TD Mobile Payment. You can use TD Mobile Payment for small purchases at merchants like drugstores, coffee shops and restaurants who support contactless payments to conveniently make every day purchases with your smartphone.
> 
> Any TD EasyWeb customer with a supported Android or BlackBerry smartphone, eligible TD Credit Card and the TD app can enjoy using TD Mobile Payment. The Android or Blackberry smartphone must be certified and enabled with Near Field Communication (NFC) technology (contactless) and a NFC SIM Card to securely store your payment information, and have a mobile plan with a participating carrier/service provider.


Get started in 4 easy steps!

Step 1: Download the TD app

Google Play https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tdcanada.mobileapp

BlackBerry World http://appworld.blackberry.com/webstore/content/10661/?countrycode=CA&lang=en

Step 2: Open the TD app and select TD Mobile Payment on the homepage. TD Mobile Payment will then assess whether your smartphone is supported.

Step 3: Follow the steps to add your eligible TD Credit Card(s) to TD Mobile Payment.

Step 4: Wait for the notification that confirms you are ready to go, and start paying with your smartphone!


----------



## GOB

Carl Icahn says AAPL is undervalued by 50%. He's an abrasive guy but you can't argue with his track record. 

http://www.shareholderssquaretable.com/sale-apple-shares-at-half-price/

I don't see $200 anytime soon but I do see big upside. The new iPhones are selling unbelievably well and a brand new product launch is just a few months away.


----------



## MrMatt

Apple is better at marketting, which to be fair is far more important than actually being able to make a good product. That being said, Apple makes very good products as well.


FWIW I just got a Nexus 5 (last years phone) It's got Android 4.4.4, which was released earlier this year. I've got to say it's much nicer than iOS 8 on my iPad.
It does have some quirks, but it's fast with a lot of neat features. 
In particular Google Now really is much better than Siri.


----------



## andrewf

You can get a gimped version of Google Now with the Google app on iOS. 

What's going to be interesting is the battery life improvements from the next version of Android. Nexus 5 has been reportedly getting 30-40% longer battery life while running the L developer preview. Combined with the new runtime, the next version of Android is going to be a big step-change in performance. Many of today's android flagship phones are likely going to last 2 days on a charge for most people.


----------



## Just a Guy

Anyone who knows the technology industry will tell you that having the best product is meaningless...otherwise Microsoft would never have been the technology powerhouse it was.

What you need to look at isn't who has the best product, but who controls the market. There is a backlog of orders for the iPhone 6 and 6+, walk into any store and ask for anything beyond the 16M version and see for yourself. I know people on waiting lists for them...they can pick up any android device on the market today, but choose to wait.

There are many examples in the tech industry where better products have failed, so don't get sucked into thinking "build a better mousetrap" works in this industry. It's who controls the industry standard...right now, that's apple.

Don't forget their product announcements in the next week...


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> You can get a gimped version of Google Now with the Google app on iOS.
> 
> What's going to be interesting is the battery life improvements from the next version of Android. Nexus 5 has been reportedly getting 30-40% longer battery life while running the L developer preview. Combined with the new runtime, the next version of Android is going to be a big step-change in performance. Many of today's android flagship phones are likely going to last 2 days on a charge for most people.


the nexus 5 is one of the great phones, very hard to beat at 350

my nieces husband just bought the 4.7 iphone which is a lovely phone but not worth the extra 400 for those of us who buy outright


----------



## andrewf

Just a Guy said:


> Anyone who knows the technology industry will tell you that having the best product is meaningless...otherwise Microsoft would never have been the technology powerhouse it was.
> 
> What you need to look at isn't who has the best product, but who controls the market. There is a backlog of orders for the iPhone 6 and 6+, walk into any store and ask for anything beyond the 16M version and see for yourself. I know people on waiting lists for them...they can pick up any android device on the market today, but choose to wait.
> 
> There are many examples in the tech industry where better products have failed, so don't get sucked into thinking "build a better mousetrap" works in this industry. It's who controls the industry standard...right now, that's apple.
> 
> Don't forget their product announcements in the next week...


In terms of numbers, the industry standard is Android--hands-down. iOS just serves a profitable & significant niche at the high end of the market.


----------



## Just a Guy

If you count all the variations as one product then I grant you that...except it's not a consistent product.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> If you count all the variations as one product then I grant you that...except it's not a consistent product.


not at present, apple presents a more consistent user experience

problem is (for apple) this is a an area that is technologically very mature by which i mean that it is easier for android to catch up to apple than it is for apple to stay ahead of android via innovation and design

innovation is a steeper hill to climb whereas merely copying the competition is much easier (not that android doesn't offer innovations of its own) and actually is a two-way street because we now see apple copying features from android

i use a mac but am also playing with windows 10 and it seems clear to me that a brand new user might choose either one, they are different but they are also the same


----------



## GOB

The industry standard is certainly not Android. Almost nothing is built for Android that isn't offered on iOS (and usually iOS is first). 

The whole world knows when iPhones are coming out (I'm almost being literal here). The whole world knows when there are supply shortages or when there are problems with Apple products, real or perceived. Nobody gives a rat's behind about an Android product launch apart from the very few who want to buy it. Nobody cares when there are problems with Android phones, and there have been many. Apple gets all the positive and negative attention, from their products to their stock to their tax handling and everything in between. 

Apple controls the market. They can take a large chunk of Android's market share if they wanted to with the snap of a finger (and after sorting out production schedules etc.). I'm sure they are planning this but only after dominating the high end, which they have begun to do with the iPhone 6/6+. For all the talk of commoditization, Apple introduced a more expensive iPhone line, and demand is so overwhelming that there are month long waits for it. Make a cheap iPhone at half price and almost nobody would choose Android. Apple has been controlling Android's fate, with a slight blip in 2012-2013. Android cannot do the same to iOS. It is abundantly clear who's in the driver's seat, and looking at market share is irrelevant and misleading.


----------



## Just a Guy

Apple also has integration, with iTunes, the apps store, iCloud, the Mac, etc. while all/some of these may not be best of breed, android certainly can't compare with their offerings, especially for the non-computer geek market.

Personally, I use Mac, Windows, Unix, whatever...I don't notice much of a difference, but I know what I'm doing. The average person however, can have issues checking email and surfing the web...for those, nothing touches apple.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Apple also has integration, with iTunes, the apps store, iCloud, the Mac, etc. while all/some of these may not be best of breed, android certainly can't compare with their offerings, especially for the non-computer geek market.
> 
> Personally, I use Mac, Windows, Unix, whatever...I don't notice much of a difference, but I know what I'm doing. The average person however, can have issues checking email and surfing the web...for those, nothing touches apple.


i use a mac also and have used windows and android extensively as well (i buy and then craigslist a lot of technology, though i am slowing down lately) since i like to try out what's new

i agree that apple has a more integrated experience for the non-geek but i would say a couple of things first, the world is getting very geeky, technology is now a no brainer for anyone under 40, as it matures and people develop skills, the "apple advantage" begins to dissappear

second, as i have said many times, android continues to catch mac while mac _relatively_ stands still, android-l is a step forward and there will be another step after that (windows is a perfectly good example where it has gotten better and better and more "mac like" and has retained its market share to 90% still)

google is a perfectly good example of what i mean, their web services both in breadth and design and ease of use just walks all over apple who still, despite a consistency in user experience, have a very poor and very limited web service lineup, no search, a very poor cloud product in icloud, nothing to compete with youtube, third rate mapping software (after nokia and google), their office suite is terrible and doesn't come close to windows and office 365 in the cloud

in order to remain dominant, they must innovate and they just are not, look at all of the missteps with the iphone-6 and especially ios-8 which is really a buggy and bloated piece of software

lets see how they change the world in a few days ...

ps. i am not saying that apple doesn't make good hardware, they do, i am saying that we are at the point where it is starting not to matter ...


----------



## GOB

Android is certainly making strides, but iOS standing still? Come on - did you watch WWDC? iOS8 was the biggest ever update in terms of unlocking functionality. Developers (and users) were unanimously both amazed and ecstatic. Yes, it is buggy which is inexcusable. But it's a huge upgrade and eliminated most of the reasons people choose Android aside from cost.

We're definitely not at the point where hardware doesn't matter. 10 million sales in 3 days, 20 million pre-orders in China (unverified, but possible)? Apple continues to sell more and more iPhones every single year. It may not go on forever, but make no mistake - it is still going on.

I would give the edge to Google for software services, but in terms of ecosystem it's not even close. Apple dominates everything else. And the kicker - all of Google's services are available for Apple devices, so it doesn't really matter. Apple products have the best of Apple and the best of Google, if that's what the consumer wants. So you are kind of arguing against yourself with that one.


----------



## andrewf

Not best of google. Google services integration into iOS is necessarily compromised. Compare Google Now on Android vs the iOS Google app.


----------



## Just a Guy

If the hardware doesn't matter, why aren't the more powerful android phones selling 10 million units? Some have better cameras, some have better processors, some have more memory...all are cheaper, yet apple (one company) outsells all the others on an individual basis, and many combined.

I disagree that people are more tech savy, I'd say the current generation is mainly a bunch of button pushers. They know very little of how the program works, they just know how to get their results...most of the time. If they can't figure it out they're lost.

The other aspect I've seen is that you can't put the latest version of android on all android devices. Because the hardware isn't standardized, each phone has to have customized versions...so, while the latest phones may be great, if your company doesn't issue you an update, you're sol.

True, Apple doesn't support all phones with their update, but it does generally support several generations.

As for Google now, how many people actually use it? Same with Siri...it's a cute "proof of concept", but let's get real, it's not a mainstream app.

What do you think would happen to android if apple decided to license iOS?


----------



## andrewf

What would happen to Android if Apple started paying people for using their phones? Equally relevant. Apple will not license iOS.

Google Now is a lot more than Siri. It keeps track of your packages based on Gmail invoices, keeps tabs on your flights, hotel reservations, suggests updates on websites you frequent, news on topics you have searched in the past, gives you at-a-glance traffic and travel times to the locations you travel to regularly (and not just work & home), weather in locations that are relevant to you, remembers where you parked (without having to be told to). It does it all without you needing to specifically ask for it. I check it 5 - 10 times a day. I'm not talking about voice activated commands which I agree is a bit of a cheesy gimmick.


----------



## PuckiTwo

Ireland declares double irish tax scheme is dead.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyph...ouble-irish-tax-scheme-dead/?partner=yahootix


----------



## GOB

I consider this as partially good news, actually. Apple has until 2020 to pull out. That gives them 5 full years under the current tax laws, and plenty of time to find the best alternative for 2020 and beyond. I think tax avoidance is a right that any individual and company has. As long as laws are followed, they should be taken advantage of. Profit from companies are taxed enough. Before making its way to the shareholder, there is domestic tax, repatriation tax and capital gains/dividend tax. Tax upon tax upon tax.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> If the hardware doesn't matter, why aren't the more powerful android phones selling 10 million units? Some have better cameras, some have better processors, some have more memory...all are cheaper, yet apple (one company) outsells all the others on an individual basis, and many combined.


what could you possibly mean by that ? ... android is killing apple in phones sold



> Global smartphone shipments for Q2 2014 reached 295.2 million units, 27% more than the same period last year when 233.0 million units were shipped. *Of those, 84.6% (249.6 million) were Android smartphones, up from 80.2% during Q2 2013.*





> What do you think would happen to android if apple decided to license iOS?


but they never will, that is apple's problem, they are locked in to a premium product, premium priced brand ... they tried it with their os in the old days and it didn't work

as long as you can buy a phone as good as the moto-g for $150 apple has big problems ... and in fact, these lower end phones are still getting better and cheaper ...

smartphone ownership in the wealthy west has reached saturation, the real growth is now in the mostly poor third world and they will not be choosing $800 iphones over $150 moto-g's ... they don't give a hoot about "user experience"

exactly like windows (with 90% market share), they will buy android because it is cheap and they will learn android and think it works just fine for them ... and in the meantime, it will continue to get better

commoditization in both software and hardware hurts apple and helps its competitors ... which is exactly why we see so much about apple pay and 5000 smart watches and vogue magazine covers and apple hiring fashion and design experts

they are shifting into being a high-end minority hardware brand and payment processing and this creates a lot of risk for them


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## cashinstinct

Look at Samsung , they are so happy with their phone business margins at the moment.

That's exactly what Apple should do.



> SEOUL— Samsung Electronics Co. 005930.SE -0.18% estimated its third-quarter operating profit more than halved from a year earlier, hit by weak smartphone sales, forcing the company to rely more on its chip business to drive future earnings growth.
> 
> (UPDATE: Samsung Faces Cost Cuts After Downbeat Guidance)
> 
> As stiff competition from Chinese vendors continues to pressure its mobile division profit—it derives more than 60% of its profit from the sale of mobile phones—investors have sold off Samsung shares on concerns about its outlook. Its stock is down about 15% so far this year.
> earlier.


http://online.wsj.com/articles/sams...ts-plunge-on-weak-smartphone-sales-1412641323


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## GOB

Apple's problem is that they won't chase the market to the bottom, where there is only one profitable company whose profit is about to drop 60% YoY. Meanwhile, silly Apple continues to sell more and more high profit phones each year resulting in record profits. 

What terrible strategy! Apple is doomed!


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## Just a Guy

fatcat said:


> what could you possibly mean by that ? ... android is killing apple in phones sold
> 
> but they never will, that is apple's problem, they are locked in to a premium product, premium priced brand ... they tried it with their os in the old days and it didn't work
> 
> as long as you can buy a phone as good as the moto-g for $150 apple has big problems ... and in fact, these lower end phones are still getting better and cheaper


So, sell at a loss and make upfor it in volume...good plan, doing well for Samsung too.

I never said they would license ios, I just wanted you to think what would happen to android if they did.

You talk of android as if it's one phone manufacturer...it's not. The platform isn't even consistent across the phones. It's like saying Ford trucks have terrible sales because there are other cars on the market...or in this case, free cars with no support, and you better not want new tires ever, because the companies are going broke giving them away...

I'd say android is doing a fine job killing itself...


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## andrewf

I personally don't care about Samsung's profitability. Smartphones becoming low-margin commodity products is a Good Thing. Consumers should be capturing more of the surplus and paying closer to what it costs to actually make a phone, rather than contributing to the already enormous cash pile of a multinational company that has no productive use to put it to.


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## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> I'd say android is doing a fine job killing itself...


but, as i said upthread the world is buying 85% android phones, how could that possibly be interpreted as android killing itself ?

people _don't care_ that android is fragmented and there are multiple versions of the os ranging from 2.3 to 4.4 (or whatever) ... _they don't care_ ... they just just want a cheap phone that meets their mostly basic needs

android does that very, very well

how can it possibly said that an operating system with 85% market share (which is _rising_) is killing itself ?


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## dave2012

85% are android phones?

Interestly when I check one of our larger websites for device usage I find 42% of mobile users are on an iPhone, 33% are on iPads. That 75% of mobile users on either an iphone or an ipad. The remaining 25% is a mix of over 980 different devices, mainly Droid devices. Only a handful of non Apple device models manage to account for any more than .5% of visitors. Microsofts tablet was less than .005% (I don't personally know a sole that owns one).

My test time period sampled 750,000 users during Jan/Feb 2014.

Seems the device of choice for any sort of mobile web surfing is hands down Apple. A bit puzzling actually that browsing on a Droid phone is so minimal...


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## fatcat

dave2012 said:


> 85% are android phones?
> 
> Interestly when I check one of our larger websites for device usage I find 42% of mobile users are on an iPhone, 33% are on iPads. That 75% of mobile users on either an iphone or an ipad. The remaining 25% is a mix of over 980 different devices, mainly Droid devices. Only a handful of non Apple device models manage to account for any more than .5% of visitors. Microsofts tablet was less than .005% (I don't personally know a sole that owns one).
> 
> My test time period sampled 750,000 users during Jan/Feb 2014.
> 
> Seems the device of choice for any sort of mobile web surfing is hands down Apple. A bit puzzling actually that browsing on a Droid phone is so minimal...


you are looking at the usa not the world ... the usa is saturated in phones ... the rest of the world are all buying android


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## Just a Guy

By your numbers 295.2 right? Apple sold 10 million in 1 weekend...guess things will have to slow significantly if they can only sell 62 million in the remaining 85+ days.

I also know people waiting for their iPhone upgrades, repeat waiting...no one I know is waiting for an android, non of these people are switching because they need to wait.

As for how they are killing themselves, any business hat sells at a loss to gain market share usually doesn't stay in business. If the android phone makers can't make money, they won't be around in the long term. 

Look at all the old computer manufacturers...compac, Osborn, gateway, oh how about ibm...yes, Windows lives on, but the people who made the cheap computers are long gone...except that one little computer manufacturer named after a fruit...aren't they still in the top PC makers (worldwide) list too?


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## GOB

andrewf said:


> I personally don't care about Samsung's profitability. Smartphones becoming low-margin commodity products is a Good Thing. Consumers should be capturing more of the surplus and paying closer to what it costs to actually make a phone, rather than contributing to the already enormous cash pile of a multinational company that has no productive use to put it to.


That kind of thinking would then also apply to everything ever sold and go against the entire theory of capitalism. I wish I didn't have to work to earn a living, too. Sure, Apple has excessive cash right now, but they are spending billions of dollars on R&D on the future of technology and directly or indirectly employing millions of people. I'd call that fairly productive. If Apple had no cash from the profitability of the Mac/iPod, there would be no iPhone and thus no smartphones as we know them today. Somebody has to spend the time and the money to create the technology and develop the ideas that the rest of world copies. Your thinking is idealistic and short sighted. 

I guess all companies who spent billions developing drugs should also sell them at cost, right?


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## dave2012

fatcat said:


> you are looking at the usa not the world ... the usa is saturated in phones ... the rest of the world are all buying android


Worldwide traffic, but yes highest demographic is US/Canada.

Checking the UK... 84% iphone + iPad. Higher in Germany.

Maybe I should check Biafra? :biggrin:

I know a lot of studies have found that Apple users surf a lot more then Android users. I'm just stating some observations. Can't explain why my numbers are so highly skewed towards Apple.


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## andrewf

GOB, I really don't think you understand what I said. We have two models: Apple's model will maximize shareholder value and serve perhaps 10% of the global population with mobile computing. Google's model will put affordable mobile computing in the hands of the rest. I think Google is doing more good, personally. Farmers in India need decent smartphones more than people in the West need a $1000 slightly thinner model with just enough features omitted to provide justification to upgrade next year.


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## GOB

Perhaps you are right, but you are giving no credence in Apple's role in creating or mainstreaming the product in the first place, as they did with PCs and tablets. There would be no talk of farmers in India using cheap smartphones if Apple and its business model did not exist. At least not until the distant future. Apple's role in the state of technology today cannot be understated. And whatever device you choose, you can be sure that Apple had a heavier hand in it than any other company, if you really think about it.


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## SpIcEz

GOB said:


> Perhaps you are right, but you are giving no credence in Apple's role in creating or mainstreaming the product in the first place, as they did with PCs and tablets. There would be no talk of farmers in India using cheap smartphones if Apple and its business model did not exist. At least not until the distant future. Apple's role in the state of technology today cannot be understated. And whatever device you choose, you can be sure that Apple had a heavier hand in it than any other company, if you really think about it.


Apple did change things in 2007. The ecosystem is one of them. Aside from that, they where first to popularize the rest, but not first to market. There where other full screen phones.
Apple is a great marketing machine. We all know that, and that's why they are popular. They make a good product. But they are no longer ahead of the curve.

GOB, if you re-read your last post once or twice and do not see the exaggeration in your statements, then this discussion is a lost cause.

Android was founded in 2003, first phone released in 2008 (yes a year after the Iphone) and yes, they might have made some adjustments in that year based on what Apple brought out, but we weren't light years away from full screen smartphones.

Windows Mobile/CE, Palm and Blackberry have much more to do with the beginnings of the smartphone industry.

Apple was first to market with a great package, no doubt and kudos to Apple (seriously).
But it was about to happen soon enough.

Now, I'm happy Apple is out there, healthy competition is good. Keeps inventors and designers on their toes.


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## Video_Frank

There's some pretty hard pimping going on for a company with 10% worldwide market share. People were pimping Blackberry in 2009 when they had 20% market share.


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> Perhaps you are right, but you are giving no credence in Apple's role in creating or mainstreaming the product in the first place, as they did with PCs and tablets. There would be no talk of farmers in India using cheap smartphones if Apple and its business model did not exist. At least not until the distant future. Apple's role in the state of technology today cannot be understated. And whatever device you choose, you can be sure that Apple had a heavier hand in it than any other company, if you really think about it.


holy cheese i am going to agree completely with gob

in my opinion apple virtually created the modern smart phone on which all other phones are based, same for the tablet, same for the computer operating system (which they essentially ripped of from xerox parc and then made it modern) which has been largely copied in total by microsoft (and is now a perfectly acceptable alternative)

their emphasis on user experience and design has been second to none

virtually all of the main gadgets we touch and use everyday now are versions of something apple virtually invented

i happen to think that in many cases, the imitators are as good or good enough that the gap, or apple advantage is starting to disappear however and i see that as a problem for apple if they are going to try and ask for premium prices without any more real and strong innovation


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## Video_Frank

Just a Guy said:


> Look at all the old computer manufacturers...compac, Osborn, gateway, oh how about ibm...yes, Windows lives on, but the people who made the cheap computers are long gone...except that one little computer manufacturer named after a fruit...aren't they still in the top PC makers (worldwide) list too?


Top 5 PC manufacturers (Oct 8 2014):

Lenovo (spun off from IBM)
HP (mergered with Compaq)
Dell
Acer
Asus

Apple is NOT top 5.


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## Just a Guy

Guess it depends on who's estimate you use...(this article is dated October 12th, 2014)

http://www.t4mag.com/industry/3084/apple-ranks-fifth-list-top-5-global-pc-vendors-says-idc/

but you were right, they weren't in 5th place before.


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## fatcat

just looked at the new apple stuff announced today
technically it's all good, well designed and specced out well

the 27-inch imac retina is the bomb, a a beautiful computer which i would love to own
would i pay 3K for one ? ... not a freaking chance
others will but they won' be lining up at that price

the ipads are basically the same with some trimming around the edges (what they are really doing here is merely adding the fingerprint scanner for security and purchasing)
i have an air already and would never upgrade for the air 2, there isn't the value or any compelling feature

some folks love technology and have to have the best gear
i used to be one of them ... not any more

it will be fun to see the sales figures for this new crop in a few months


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## GOB

Agree on the iPads. There is not much incentive to upgrade more than every 4 or 5 years. Great devices but growth will need to come from new users and enterprise penetration. 

Anyone who doesn't think Apple has been the most influential tech company since the beginning clearly has no understanding of the history of technology. Apple's marketing is only effective because they can back it up and have a reputation that they have earned over decades.


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> Anyone who doesn't think Apple has been the most influential tech company since the beginning clearly has no understanding of the history of technology.


beginning of what ?

intel, microsoft and ibm would all be much more influential just off the top of my head

ibm has had more patents than any other company for 21 straight years

apple ? really ? i don't think so ...

ibm and general electric have together filed over 1.5 million patents


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## SpIcEz

"...the most influential..." *in what field?*
"...since the beginning..." *of what?*
"...no understanding of the history of technology." *going back how far?*

Honestly, that's quite a broad brush you paint with.


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## GOB

Not going to get into further debate after this post but my statement still stands. You've got to be joking with those companies listed. Where were any of them in 2007 when the mobile space took off? Where are they now in smartphones and tablets? I didn't realize influence was based on the number of patents filed..:roll eyes: 

in what field? consumer technology
of what? the personal computing era
going back how far? 35 years or so


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> Not going to get into further debate after this post but my statement still stands. You've got to be joking with those companies listed. Where were any of them in 2007 when the mobile space took off? Where are they now in smartphones and tablets? I didn't realize influence was based on the number of patents filed..:roll eyes:
> 
> in what field? consumer technology
> of what? the personal computing era
> going back how far? 35 years or so


except you didn't specify smartphones, you didn't specify tablets or even computers

you merely said "tech company" 

and apple is far, far, far behind in technology patents

far behind ibm, sony, samsung, microsoft and a host of others

in 2012 apple was number 22 and ibm was once again number 1 for technology patents

it isn't even close


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## Video_Frank

This thread is starting to sound a lot like "truthiness":

"It used to be, everyone was entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts. But that's not the case anymore. Facts matter not at all. Perception is everything. It's certainty.

Truthiness is 'What I say is right, and [nothing] anyone else says could possibly be true."


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## Video_Frank

GOB said:


> Anyone who doesn't think Apple has been the most influential tech company since the beginning clearly has no understanding of the history of technology. Apple's marketing is only effective because they can back it up and have a reputation that they have earned over decades.


"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield." - Warren Buffett


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## fatcat

Video_Frank said:


> "In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield." - Warren Buffett


+1 ... excellent ... typical buffet ... this is what i am trying to do with apple, see where they are in a year or two ... it is going to get tougher i think


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## GOB

OK, let's focus on the future. How about a friendly bet? Instead of the same words over and over again, why don't we put some numbers to it?

Let's predict the following one and two years from now and see who has the clearer windshield by the end of it. As a bonus, we can analyze our estimates against the current valuation and maybe get some actionable ideas off it. Which to me, is the main of these boards. 

Revenue (ttm): 
iPhone sales (ttm):
EPS (ttm):
Share price: 

Current numbers: 
Revenue (ttm): $178.1B
iPhone sales (ttm): 163.8M
EPS (ttm): $6.20
Share price:$97.67

And if you think I'm always stuck in the past, let's review my predictions at the start of the year: 



> 2014 should be a strong year for Apple and AAPL due to the following:
> 
> - iPhone 5s/5c are a huge success in important markets (USA, Japan). One study has pegged almost half of iPhone 5c sales coming from previous Android users.
> - Smartphone market share continues to grow in North America
> - China Mobile deal will likely add tens of millions of iPhone sales
> - iPad Air looks to be a huge success and should reinvigorate iPad sales growth.
> - iOS usage dominates Android (more important metric for platform stickiness and viability than simple market share, IMO)
> - Mac Pro will sell well and reinforces Apple's innovative image
> - Likely iWatch launch (lots of smoke in 2013, and where there is smoke there's fire)
> - Gross margins should be relatively stable compared to 2013, with increasing revenue = increased EPS
> - Aggressive buybacks will further boost EPS
> - Another dividend increase should set a higher floor on the stock
> - Current valuation is very attractive compared to other tech stocks


I believe every single one of my future (windshield) predictions came true with the exception of iPad growth. And I guess the "iWatch" will be launching next year, though it was announced this year. As for the share price:

Jan 3, 2014: $77.28
Today: $97.67
Gain: 26.4% (compared to 7.8% for the NASDAQ and 7.3% for the QQQ)

As a reference, you started to predict the demise of the iPhone this January as well (perhaps earlier, but that's what I remember). 9 months later and the iPhone has never been stronger and ASPs have never been as high as they will be this quarter. If we are going to keep repeating ourselves over and over for 9 months there should at least be some accountability. 

Your post on Jan 27:


fatcat said:


> the iphone is an excellent phone ... excellent ... but i just bought a moto-g off-contract for $200, and it is a really good looking, really fast little phone with a great screen and decent enough camera ... compare that to the $720+ for an iphone off contract ... this is going to begin to really hurt ...and google/motorola are just getting started on high quality really cheap phones ... apple has a big problem on their hands .. the ipad is fine for now anyway but the iphone is rough waters at the moment imo


Motorola was such a failure and a money pit that Google got rid of them...that is the powerhouse team that was going to take down the iPhone? 

Having said this, I'm certainly not perfect either. I fully admit I got slaughtered during the plunge from $700-400 that was partly due to (very temporary) stalled growth. However, iPhone sales continued to increase every quarter. The point I'm making is that I regularly make predictions about the future that often turn out to be correct, at least fundamentally. I am definitely not stuck in the past. Looking back on what happened, I was actually thinking too far into the future and forgot to look right in front of the me. The signs were there. Apple has now recovered as is fundamentally right where I expected them to be. But I thought we'd be higher by now.


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## andrewf

iWatch didn't show up in 2014. No show until next year. I would say that announcing it doesn't count.


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## GOB

Thanks for the nitpick, Andrew. I did mention it as well. Care to join in the estimates instead of trying to pick apart meaningless information? Why are the bears so afraid to put some numbers out?

And if you really want to be technical about it, the definition of "launch" is:


transitive v. To introduce to the public or to a market: launched the new perfume with prime-time commercials on the major networks.

So yes, Apple Watch did launch in 2014


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## kcowan

APPL seems to be range bound now in the $96 to $102 prices. I am wondering what sort of event might stimulate another run-up? I suppose a breakthrough in China might do it. But then there is the potential drag on profits from repatriation changes.

I see drags from Apple watch and TV. I suppose the one bright spot is Apple Pay.


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## humble_pie

i'm betting with fatcat. AAPL is a maturing industry. 

the options still have great premium though, since the jury is still out & there are millions of goblets going gangbusters


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## GOB

kcowan said:


> APPL seems to be range bound now in the $96 to $102 prices. I am wondering what sort of event might stimulate another run-up? I suppose a breakthrough in China might do it. But then there is the potential drag on profits from repatriation changes.
> 
> I see drags from Apple watch and TV. I suppose the one bright spot is Apple Pay.


Actually, there will not be as big of a drag as you think. Apple already accounts for repatriation (some or all, I am not sure) in deferred tax liabilities. So they actually make more profit than they report. This is apparent when you compare Apple's effective tax rate of around 26% with a company like Google, who is much lower. 










This table shows around $30B that has been marked as deferred tax. 

As for what will stimulate share appreciation, I think it's simple. Revenue growth, EPS growth and consist annual dividend increases with buybacks to support the shares.


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## GOB

My estimates:

Oct 18, 2015:

Revenue (ttm): $207B
iPhone sales (ttm): 190M
EPS (ttm): $7.75
Share price:$120

Oct 18, 2016:

Revenue (ttm): $225B
iPhone sales (ttm): 205M
EPS (ttm): $8.50
Share price:$145

Note that I am not modelling for outlandish growth - it could very well be much higher. But given current valuation, even a modest 7-10% annual growth means a ton of additional profit, and even more cash to give back to the shareholders. This will translate into a higher share price. I still see Apple outperforming the market for a few more years, and becoming a "retirement" stock thereafter with slow and steady total returns.

I would really like to see some numbers from others, especially those on the other side of the fence. It makes you think.


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## humble_pie

GOB said:


> ... I still see Apple outperforming the market for a few more years, and becoming a "retirement" stock thereafter with slow and steady total returns



this is what i worry about. when the momo runs down.


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## GOB

humble_pie said:


> this is what i worry about. when the momo runs down.


I think at that point, dividend growth and buybacks will put a floor on the stock. Like any other megacap paying increasing dividends, it would be less vulnerable to shocks and recover more quickly than the rest of the market. I wouldn't worry about a prolonged sell-off, because the current P/E is already lagging the market, despite the strong growth ahead. The stock will be bought on sell-offs, either by the market, or by Apple itself.

Apple's payout ratio is under 30%. They have plenty of room to shift focus to dividend yield and growth, when the time comes. I think the transition is already slowly happen, so it will play out over time rather smoothly (I hope).


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## fatcat

you want to make sure that, if indeed sales start to stall, you don't get caught in the large storm of disillusion as people begin to reevaluate apple's trajectory

this is a stock that has such expectations and is so widely held (by the big boys especially who, when they fart, the rest of us smell it), if it stumbles, there could be a large downdraft to follow

apple pay looks to be interesting but it has plenty of robust competition, and not surprisingly for apple only works on all their newest technology, which is a small subset of all phones in existence ... current-c will work on *any* smartphone on any os new or old

finally the last two product announcements, especially the one on thursday were underwhelming and demonstrate a company that is retaining its image as a high-end exclusive company and only offers modest tweaks and minor upgrades to to it line

the watch will be strictly a niche product and will not gain wide appeal

apple tv can never materialize under the current delivery system of television ... we need widespread iptv and then we might see apple jump in and offer something unique but apple tv has stalled for a reason, there is nothing to bring out because the nut can't be cracked in the current model


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## indexxx

Excellent thoughts as always GOB. Any feelings on the new sim card implementation?


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## GOB

Fatcat, you are making some very cut and dry statements. How exactly do you know about the appeal of the Apple Watch. You sound awfully similar to the people who said iPhone and iPad would not garner wide appeal and are now eating a massive amount of crow. 

As for Current-C, good luck with that one. Thousands of banks and tons of retailers are on board with Apple Pay before it's even launched. Billions of people are aware of Apple Pay. How many people know about Current-C, and more importantly, how many aspire to use it? Data stored in the cloud? Laughable. Good luck with that one. Apple Pay will command a good share of the mobile payment market (including the most lucrative consumers) and Apple will be the most profitable player in the space. 

As for the big players dumping, it will be a temporary event. The strength of Apple's free cash flow, their increasing dividend and their commitment to buying back undervalued shares will quickly reverse any downside. I don't discount the possibility of a large selloff but I believe it will be temporary and the upside is just too great to be staying out in fear of a selloff. I may look to reduce my position around when we hit $150-200. Now is way, way too early. 

Apple's TV implementation will happen. It's just a question of when. HBO recently announced a standalone streaming subscription model - the wheels are in motion. It'll take time, but it's another potentially massive future revenue stream for Apple.

Apple's cash is going to make its way back to the shareholders. I don't see an end to their massive cash flow anytime soon - it'll increase for a few years and then may start to level off. Don't forget how much of the world still doesn't have a smartphone and don't forget how quickly the middle class in the east is rising. People who can afford iPhones buy iPhones, and more and more people are able to afford iPhones. That is much more important to Apple's future than Android marketshare.

As for Apple's image. High end? Certainly. Exclusive? Not really. The top three selling phones on all the major US carriers are the iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus and iPhone 5s. So it seems like they are actually the most common phones. Japan is the same story and China will likey be similar. Obviously in areas of very low income the iPhone won't sell much, but that's not a profitable segment of the market anyway. A single device having 45% market share in its biggest market can hardly be called exclusive. That just doesn't make sense. It's like saying Ford is an exclusive brand because they don't sell much in India. 

PS: fat cat, still waiting for your numerical predictions. Put some numbers to your words. Stocks don't trade on words. If the iPhone and iPad are on their last legs and the Apple Watch will be a flop, you should be easily able to assign some rough numbers, get an EPS and estimate the share price. Why the reluctance?


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## GOB

Indexxx, the Apple SIM is interesting. There won't be a noticeable impact with the iPads but it could get very interesting in the future if it ever makes it to the iPhone. I have a feeling Apple has plans to deal with the potential future problem of carrier subsidies be reduced or eliminated, and this may be part of it. For the time being though, carriers are fighting tooth and nail to offer incredible deals to iPhone customers.


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## fatcat

> fat cat, still waiting for your numerical predictions. Put some numbers to your words. Stocks don't trade on words. If the iPhone and iPad are on their last legs and the Apple Watch will be a flop, you should be easily able to assign some rough numbers, get an EPS and estimate the share price. Why the reluctance?


no interest in numbers, don't trust the numbers, there are too many numbers to even begin to comprehend ...

earnings hit and then miss with regularity ... buffet doesn't sweat the quarterlies nor should i

i follow the company and the product and i listen to and read analysts and the general media for what they say about a stock and make up my mind

sorry but numbers to the retail investor are mostly a fantasy that conform to their conscious or unconscious bias about whether a stock/company is a good bet

apple is a good strong company with money in the bank and very good products and are likely to do very well

however i do they think their main product lines are becoming commoditized (you can now buy a phone like the plus one (check it out and be amazed for 299) that is every bit as good as the iphone-6-plus for $299 off-contract-unlocked ... this is compelling and i think is the direction of phones as they get cheaper and cheaper and better and better all of which will hurt apple ... why would you pay rogers $349 to be locked into a contract for 2-years when you can buy a oneplus for $299 contract free, it makes no sense )

i am talking about the 10-15-20% of apples stock price that is the baked-in-magic of apples innovative skills, thats what i see at risk ... apple is still a strong company .. i am happy to hold them in QQQ along with microsoft and google and the rest

ps. hope this makes sense, just had a major tooth extracted and they have me on antibiotics and steroids and my brain is fogged


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## GOB

I'm not talking about quarter by quarter numbers, but projections a year and two out. Those absolutely matter. Based on your beliefs you should have some idea of where you think Apple will be numbers-wise two years from now. 

There is 0% of future innovation baked into the stock price. We've been over this before. If you actually took an interest in the numbers, you would see this too. The fact that you (incorrectly) believe this kind of highlights the importance of numbers, doesn't it?! You clearly haven't done the exercise of valuing Apple's stock. I guess you don't need to do this if you do index/ETF investing, but don't say things that simply are not true. 

Your argument about commoditization falls flat on its face when you look at the Mac product line. How come Mac sales are growing in the face of the declining PC industry? There are plenty of powerful machines available for $300-700, while Apple plays and grows in the $800+ range. And the PC industry is a whole lot older than the smartphone industry. You also skipped over my point of smartphone user growth and the growth of the middle class - that's going to be huge for the entire industry, Apple included. And the companies that make profit and play in their own differentiated space will make even more profit. One guess who that's going to be...

The Plusone may be an impressive phone spec-wise, but the iPhone is not its major competition. That's what you don't get. Samsung should be far more worried about this phone than Apple, but Apple has product differentiation with iOS and their entire ecosystem that cannot be matched. Samsung and other Android vendors have nothing. The competition is between them, far more so than Apple.

The other thing you don't understand is the power of advertising. Samsung has a multibillion dollar budget for advertising, and it is the main reason for its success. There have always been far superior Android phones that cost less, but the general public simply didn't know about them. If a company is going to offer a great phone for a low-price, they aren't making much margin off it and thus will not have an advertising budget large enough to compete with the likes of Samsung and Apple. You talk about stuff like the Plusone and Current-C when 99% of the population has never even heard of them. Who's going to buy a phone or trust payment data from companies they've never heard of?

The PlusOne every bit as good as the iPhone 6/6+? Keep dreaming. Maybe to a very select portion of the population, but almost nobody would agree with that statement, nor should they.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> I'm not talking about quarter by quarter numbers, but projections a year and two out. Those absolutely matter. Based on your beliefs you should have some idea of where you think Apple will be numbers-wise two years from now.


i have an intellectual interest in the future of the company primarily since i have used their products and followed them actively for almost 30 years .. i only hold them as part of QQQ (13%) so have little interest in their numbers past present or future ... i do wish them well though since that 13% can kick things up or down a bit


> There is 0% of future innovation baked into the stock price


i just don't believe this at all, not remotely



> Your argument about commoditization falls flat on its face when you look at the Mac product line. How come Mac sales are growing in the face of the declining PC industry?


macs have about 10% of the market in pc's ... that says that 90% of the buyers are priced driven and that will be the case in smartphones as well especially as they get much cheaper and reach states of quality that are so good, consumers stop really looking for brand and just buy by price ... again tv's being a prime example of what i am talking, i could give you a long list of technology that has been commoditized ... if theres enough money in it and its widely desirable, it will be commoditized



> The Plus-one may be an impressive phone spec-wise, but the iPhone is not its major competition. That's what you don't get.


how can two phones that are technological about the same (i picked up an iphone-6 plus today and liked it, a very good phone but the one-plus has some killer specs) and one costs $349 USD (64-gig plus one) vs the other that cost $959 CDN for a 64 gig iphone-plus even remotely be considered comparable values ... 



> Samsung should be far more worried about this phone than Apple, but Apple has product differentiation with iOS and their entire ecosystem that cannot be matched.


 i've have vacationed for years in the entire apple ecosystem and it's fine, a little pricey, not so well developed, a little buggy at the moment, it's good and in the meantime google gets better and better and moves closer and close to apple ... you see, everyone just copies apple, that's all they need to do ... they can innovate as android has done but they don't need to, apple must innovate, they have to



> Samsung and other Android vendors have nothing.


except 85% of worldwide market share



> The other thing you don't understand is the power of advertising. Samsung has a multibillion dollar budget for advertising, and it is the main reason for its success.


right, and apple knows nothing about marketing, do i have that right ? ... it's all the products ? right ? :smilet-digitalpoint



> You talk about stuff like the Plus-one and Current-C when 99% of the population has never even heard of them. Who's going to buy a phone or trust payment data from companies they've never heard of?


they don't to buy a phone to use current-c, that's precisely the point, they already *have* a phone that uses current-c ... they don't need to go out an buy one 

anyway, i am still under the weather her ... lets look for some typical apple killer numbers next week ... better still lets pop oil to $85 :biggrin:


----------



## GOB

We're both obviously wasting our time here at this point. If you aren't willing to expand the discussion and provide some numbers then there is no point to continuing this back and forth. You'll be saying the same thing ad nauseam, even if Apple grows for several years and the share price doubles. You might eventually be right, maybe in a decade or two, but not before I've made a killing on this stock. All I'm trying to highlight is what incredible value AAPL is at this point in time.

If there is something new to contribute, I'll be here.


----------



## andrewf

I don't doubt that Apple's share price will perform well over the next few years. They are relatively cheap, and they have enough of a moat to defend their cash cow (iPhone) for another several years. I do wonder about what happens when the smart phone market matures. I don't think the other markets Apple is developing have the revenue potential of phones, which are a bit special because the purchase price is distorted by the high monthly price of using the things. Eventually the impetus for upgrading phones will slow. Screens are large enough and high enough resolution that we are well along the path of diminishing returns. Current high end phone processors won't be challenged by most software applications except perhaps games (though chips like the Tegra K1 are impressive in comparison to desktop graphics chips from a few years ago). There is some room for improvement in battery life.

Apple's market share is falling and will likely be under 10% in a year or two. Even in a 1.5 billion unit per year market, that doesn't leave much room for growth in unit sales for Apple. What will be interesting is how Apple reacts to zero growth in iPhone sales--do they start to succumb to pressure to lower prices/offer lower end devices at the same margins they currently ask. I think it's interesting that iPad mini 2 was cut to $299, which makes it just about a good value in the tablet space. 

http://thenextweb.com/insider/2014/...5-3m-q2-2014-samsung-apple-lost-market-share/


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> We're both obviously wasting our time here at this point. If you aren't willing to expand the discussion and provide some numbers then there is no point to continuing this back and forth. You'll be saying the same thing ad nauseam, even if Apple grows for several years and the share price doubles. You might eventually be right, maybe in a decade or two, but not before I've made a killing on this stock. All I'm trying to highlight is what incredible value AAPL is at this point in time.
> 
> If there is something new to contribute, I'll be here.


sounds good


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> I don't doubt that Apple's share price will perform well over the next few years. They are relatively cheap, and they have enough of a moat to defend their cash cow (iPhone) for another several years. I do wonder about what happens when the smart phone market matures. I don't think the other markets Apple is developing have the revenue potential of phones, which are a bit special because the purchase price is distorted by the high monthly price of using the things. Eventually the impetus for upgrading phones will slow. Screens are large enough and high enough resolution that we are well along the path of diminishing returns. Current high end phone processors won't be challenged by most software applications except perhaps games (though chips like the Tegra K1 are impressive in comparison to desktop graphics chips from a few years ago). There is some room for improvement in battery life.
> 
> Apple's market share is falling and will likely be under 10% in a year or two. Even in a 1.5 billion unit per year market, that doesn't leave much room for growth in unit sales for Apple. What will be interesting is how Apple reacts to zero growth in iPhone sales--do they start to succumb to pressure to lower prices/offer lower end devices at the same margins they currently ask. I think it's interesting that iPad mini 2 was cut to $299, which makes it just about a good value in the tablet space.
> 
> http://thenextweb.com/insider/2014/...5-3m-q2-2014-samsung-apple-lost-market-share/


precisely, they were pre-eminent in a business segment that is quickly becoming commoditized and they are branching into payments in which they are one of many big players ... IF the watch gets untethered from the phone they have a hit on their hands but that doesn't seem likely ... apple is sending signals of big shift and that brings risk ... andrew, you like android phones, check out the one plus ... a huge amount of phone starting at 299


----------



## gibor365

> Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): FQ4 EPS of $1.42 beats by $0.11.
> Revenue of $42.12B (+12.4% Y/Y) beats by $2.27B.
> 39.3M iPhones (above expectations), 12.3M iPads (below expectations), 5.5M Macs (above expectations).
> Expects FQ1 revenue of $63.5M-$66.5B, mostly above a $63.52B consensus.
> Shares +0.5% AH.


Why only 0.5%


----------



## Just a Guy

Because they ran up 2.14% before close?

And it was up 1.58% in AH when I posted this...


----------



## GOB

For those with an interest in numbers:

- 12.4% revenue growth (strongest growth in 7 quarters)
- 13.3% net income growth
- 20% EPS growth (power of the buybacks)
- 15% iPhone growth (26% sell-through growth)
- 13% iPad decline
- 20% Mac growth (highest marketshare since 1995)
- 36% App store revenue growth
- Revenue guidance of $63.5-66.5B (15.5% growth on the upper end despite significant fx headwinds)

iPad aside, this is massive. These kind of growth numbers far exceed the market, and the company is valued at a multiple lower than the S&P. That's without backing out the cash that represents close to 25% of the market cap. And some believe 20% of the stock is priced in as innovation potential?!

I would like to hear an explanation using commoditization theory of why a 30 year old product line is growing at such high rates despite being priced much higher than the rest of the market. Unless this can be explained, and unless it can be explained why the iPhone cannot do the same thing, then commoditization is not certainty, but merely a possibility. Macs and iPhones, and for that matter all Apple products have very similar differentiation points to the rest of the market. 

Market corrections notwithstanding, this stock is going much higher, because the growth and massive cash generation and increasing distribution to shareholders is going to continue for the foreseeable future.

PS: Last year's Q4 included a China launch for the new iPhones...this year did not. Bloodbath...


----------



## GOB

One quote from Tim Cook that sticks out on the conference call:



> And this weekend -- this past weekend we launched it with China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. This was the first time we've launched a new iPhone with all three carriers and we've done it at the early stages of the 4G rollout and so I am incredibly bullish over it.
> 
> In terms of subsidies there are regulatory pressures on subsidies. We have -- we've seen that. However, only 20% of the iPhones that we've been selling in China have had a traditional subsidy applied to it and so the vast majority don't.
> 
> And so will it make a difference with that 20%, I don't know yet. Intuitively you were thinking, it would, but it's at least a percentage of a 20% instead of a percentage of 100%.
> 
> And so when I look at China, I see an enormous market where there are more people graduating into the middle class than any nation on earth in history and just an incredible market where people brought the latest technology and products that we were providing.
> 
> And so we're investing like crazy in the market. We're more than doubling our stores. We've got 15 in Greater China today. We're going to be close to 40 in the next couple of years. We've expanded our online store to cover now 315 cities in China. The revenue results for Q4 were up more than double the previous year.
> 
> The App Store is growing. Chinese developers have now created a 150,000 apps -- of the apps on the App Store and so I see lots of very, very positive factors there and I couldn’t be more excited.
> 
> For iPhone I really have it by model from the June quarter and as I had mentioned before, the highest percentage is the 4s buyer in China over 80% of the people were buying their first iPhone.
> 
> And for a 5s in China, 50% were and so I think what that says. Those numbers are so high, the 80 that I think are great -- my gut tells me, a great percentage of 6 and 6 Plus buyers will eventually -- a great percentage of those will be new to iPhone. That's what I would predict.


Also from Verizon earnings:


> But on Verizon's earnings conference call with analysts, Chief Financial Officer Fran Shammo said, "We have the highest backlog of any previous launch of an iPhone that we have coming into the fourth quarter, which is a high backlog of both new customers and also for upgrades. So I know that our upgrade rate is going be fairly significant in the fourth quarter."


This matters far more than worrying about a distant future scenario that may never happen. Much money to be made before it even begins to become a possibility.


----------



## indexxx

Icahn's gushing...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ic...t-ever-for-the-vix-2014-10-22?dist=beforebell


----------



## HaroldCrump

Icahn needs to make up for all his losses on Chesapeake Energy and Talisman.


----------



## kcowan

Apple's attack on the corporate market

Granted that seeking Alpha tends to overstate things, their recent hookup with IBM makes some sense....


----------



## indexxx

kcowan said:


> Apple's attack on the corporate market
> 
> Granted that seeking Alpha tends to overstate things, their recent hookup with IBM makes some sense....


Being in the restaurant/bar biz my whole life, I've thought for years that at some point Apple should swoop in and disrupt the equipment and software we use for point-of-sale systems and back of house reporting. Managing some of these systems is a nightmare of bloated dumb design, poor implementation, and crashes. It's a massive market if one considered all the restaurants, bars, hotels, casinos, clubs, cruiseships, etc etc that there are everywhere. And retail.


----------



## GOB

I'm noticing more and more places using iPads to take orders and instantly deliver them to the kitchen. I don't if Apple has to do much more than maybe helping to develop some tailored apps. 

New ATH by the way 

It seems like the market is actually beginning to make some sense. Companies that are missing earnings and showing no growth (IBM, KO) or not making anything at all (AMZN) are selling off and getting reevaluated while companies showing good profit and growth (AAPL, CAT) are starting to get priced more appropriately. Sounds simple but so often it just doesn't work that way.


----------



## OurBigFatWallet

I got a chip repaired on a windshield at a mobile repair shop (setup in a parking lot) and they used an iPad to enter all the info - including pay info. I used my credit card to pay and signed electronically on the iPad. Makes sense and Im sure more business will adopt it as a mobile payment system


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## GOB

Well, it looks like I was wrong. People are indeed starting to hear about CurrentC. Unfortunately, it's for all the wrong reasons (if you believe CurrentC is going to take off). CurrentC is being branded as a completely inferior and useless alternative to Apple Pay, and rightly so.



> Retailers are rejecting Apple's mobile payment system, Apple Pay.
> 
> This weekend, CVS and Rite Aid shut down their NFC systems that accepted Apple Pay and Google Wallet. Wal-Mart doesn't have its NFC terminals turned on, but even if it did, it would probably reject Apple Pay.
> 
> These stores are rejecting Apple Pay because they have their own mobile payment system in the works. It's an app called "CurrentC."
> 
> Josh Constine at TechCrunch has a big look at CurrentC. It doesn't sound good.
> 
> Here's how it works: When it's time to pay for something, you get a QR code served to you on a payment terminal. You then open your phone, open the CurrentC app, then scan the QR code to pay. It can also work in reverse, where you open your phone, and you have a QR code, and the retailer scans the code.
> 
> Compare that with Apple Pay, which works like this: When it's time to pay, take out your phone, hold it to the payment terminal, then use the phone's fingerprint scanner to pay, and you're done.
> 
> Or, compare both with credit cards: When it's time to pay, take out your credit card, swipe it, sign, and be on your way.
> 
> Why are retailers doing CurrentC? Because they hate paying credit-card companies 2% to 3% on each transaction. CurrentC is run through banks/debit cards, which avoids those fees.
> 
> MCX
> BII
> 
> CurrentC is the product of a consortium of US retailers called MCX, which is led by Wal-Mart. Members of MCX account for one in five retail dollars spent in the US.
> 
> In 2013, FierceRetailIT reported that MCX was signing retailers to exclusive three-year deals. Retailers couldn't use any other mobile payments systems over a three-year period that started in either 2012 or 2013. That is probably the reason CVS and Rite Aid are shutting down their NFC readers. They are probably contractually obligated.
> 
> Beyond being clunky to use, CurrentC also sounds invasive. To sign up, it supposedly wants your social security number and driver's license number to verify who you are. The app collects a lot of information, including your health and location data.
> 
> For these reasons, we predict CurrentC is going to be dead on arrival. It's worse than using a credit card, and it's creepy.
> 
> It's going to be a bit of a setback for Apple in the short-term, but in the long run it shouldn't be a problem. Retailers want to make paying for stuff as easy, and as secure, as possible. If Apple Pay is an easy secure solution that people actually want to use, then retailers will adopt Apple Pay as soon as they are out of their contract with MCX.


So, to summarize:

- no credit cards, with the possible exception of merchant branded ones
- access to bank account required
- access to health data required (???)
- inconvenient payment procedure
- data stored in the cloud

This fiasco is doing a great job of providing free publicity to Apple Pay, and even more importantly, clearly highlighting the reasons why Apple Pay is so much better than CurrentC. The actions of CVS and RiteAid have actually united Android and iOS users, as disabling NFC also disables Google Wallet. So now everybody hates them. 

Retailers sticking to MCX/CurrentC are going to be left in the dust. Nobody is going to use it.


----------



## kcowan

It sounds like CurrentC should also be opposed by the CC companies.


----------



## indexxx

$106.70? I've said it before and I'll say it again... GO APPLE!!


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## GOB

This stock is going to $150 and beyond, certainly with bumps along the way, but I'll be holding strong. So much easier to buy and hold great value like this than something like QQQ which has overvalued stuff like AMZN, FB and GOOG among their top holdings. A stronger stomach is needed to hold through periods of irrationality but the rewards are rich.

Can't wait to see the next update to marketshare stats.


----------



## Video_Frank

You must have a hell of a crystal ball.


----------



## GOB

I'm just applying what I know. If AAPL had Google's multiple it would already be well past $150. And AAPL is actually showing growth on both top and bottom lines at impressive rates, not even counting the upcoming Apple Watch.

I won't even mention AMZN who can't make a penny after being in business almost 20 years.

Don't get me wrong, nothing is a sure thing, but I'm more comfortable holding AAPL than QQQ.

Update: FB down 8% after hours. There are just so many stocks I would hate to own in an index. I know it's up 100% on the year, but I can't justify owning companies I don't understand or business models I don't agree with.


----------



## GOB

This would be funny if it weren't so pathetic. Who here still thinks CurrentC is going to dominate?



> Thank you for your interest in CurrentC. You are receiving this message because you are either a participant in our pilot program or requested information about CurrentC. Within the last 36 hours, we learned that unauthorized third parties obtained the e-mail addresses of some of you. Based on investigations conducted by MCX security personnel, only these e-mail addresses were involved and no other information.
> 
> In an abundance of caution, we wanted to make you aware of this incident and urge you not to open links or attachments from unknown third parties. Also know that neither CurrentC nor Merchant Customer Exchange (MCX) will ever send you emails asking for your financial account, social security number or other personally identifiable information. So if you are ever asked for this information in an email, you can be confident it is not from us and you should not respond.
> 
> MCX is continuing to investigate this situation and will provide updates as necessary. We take the security of your information extremely seriously, apologize for any inconvenience and thank you for your support of CurrentC.


The cloud is not the place for sensitive personal information, as we have seen countless times.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Don't get me wrong, nothing is a sure thing, but I'm more comfortable holding AAPL than QQQ.


they are't even comparable investments ...

with QQQ you get info-tech as well as consumer discretionary and health care, all 3 of these sectors are weak in canada

QQQ gives you one etf that will complement say, XIU very well and give much better sector representation to a typical canadian portfolio

plus with QQQ you get tesla, netflix, facebook, baidu, starbucks, gilead, amgen and so on

they are different investments


----------



## GOB

You're right. It shouldn't be continually brought up here then...


----------



## indexxx

Article:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/war-over-samsung-finally-capitulated-103200397.html


----------



## GOB

So much for releasing cheap phones and joining the crowd, eh? It boggles the mind how people think Apple needs to follow the strategy of the losers to succeed. 

74% drop in YoY mobile profits for Samsung. Ouch! 

Apple's actions over the past few challenging years proves to me that they know what they're doing long term and that they don't let short term events dictate their vision for the future.

People want iPhones. End of story. People also wanted bigger screens, and many went away from iPhone for that reason alone. Now that they have exactly what they want, all Android vendors can do is compete on price, which is a race to the bottom.


----------



## Just a Guy

It's interesting...Apple sold 10 million iPhones the first weekend...yet you hardly see any around. Everyone I know who wants an iPhone is waiting to get a 64G model...which don't exist.

I know a lot of people waiting...

If Apple is producing them as fast as possible, but no one has one...what does that say about demand.

Of course, you can go in and pick up the latest Samsung...no supply issues there...or is it no demand?


----------



## GOB

I think after Samsung's earnings report, we know the answer to that one :biggrin:


----------



## Pluto

GOB, you sold me on aapl a long time ago, and I'm making lots of $. Keep up the good posts.


----------



## andrewf

Meanwhile, Apple's y/y marketshare continues to decline.


----------



## GOB

Meanwhile, nobody who understands the smartphone industry actually cares. 

Pluto, glad you got something from my posts and congratulations on the gains!


----------



## Jon_Snow

My wife's RRSP is thriving with it's sizeable chunk of Apple stock. Again, the refrain, "I should have bought MORE".


----------



## indexxx

Jon_Snow said:


> My wife's RRSP is thriving with it's sizeable chunk of Apple stock. Again, the refrain, "I should have bought MORE".


Glad I backed the truck up at its low a few weeks ago


----------



## GOB

> Samsung may still be king when it comes to global smartphone sales, but metrics often obscure the underlying reason why companies really do business – profits. According to one analyst, Apple controls 86 percent of the profits earned in the overall handset market during the 3rd quarter of 2014, proving that being bigger doesn't necessarily mean being better.
> 
> The research report put together by analyst Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity, adds that Samsung's share accounted for just 18 percent of industry profits, the lowest it has been since 2011. Further, Apple and Samsung put together account for more than 100 percent of the mobile industry's profits, because not all companies were in the green.
> 
> The report admits that it omits big rig Chinese manufacturers that are creating tidal waves in the industry, due to the lack of data on sales and profits. Apart from that however, the report serves as a pretty good indicator for the state of the global mobile sector, with LG being the only other manufacturer to have a positive value share in the Jul-Sep quarter.
> 
> LG controlled 2 percent of the handset industry's profits, boosted by record sales especially for its flagship G3 smartphone in the third quarter of 2013. BlackBerry and HTC are estimated to have 0 percent share, meaning they just managed to break even. With an estimated operating loss of $185 million, Motorola's share stands at -2 percent.
> 
> Microsoft was the other big player that lost during the September quarter, with its mobile arm posting an estimated loss of $341 million, translating to -4 percent share of the handset industry profits. Among these manufacturers, Walkley saw the handset industry's operating income fall 17.3 percent year-on-year, highlighting the success of Chinese manufacturers.


But it's all about marketshare...right??


----------



## andrewf

But perhaps share is a leading indicator of the future. Is it sustainable to have an ever shrinking share of the market without that eventually translating to shrink revenues and profits?


----------



## GOB

Of course it is, if the market is growing and the share of the profitable segment of the market holds steady or increases. Care to take a guess which direction iPhone market share is heading in mature, profitable countries like Canada, USA and Japan?

How many years does it take to realize that Apple knows what it's doing? This market share argument has been going on for years, yet Apple continues to sell more phones and make more money.


----------



## fatcat

here is an article that talks about a shift to "android first" development of apps: http://www.businessinsider.sg/facebook-sees-android-first-app-developer-trend-2014-10/#.VFp9zPTF_-Q

from the article


> “People look at the numbers,” he says. “They want downloads, installs. They know that the monetization is catching up on Android. Of course iOS is the better platform when it comes to monetization, but it’s easier to update your app on Android. There are many people on an Android phone. … The world you described [in which Apple is dominant] was true a year ago, but I see that things are changing.”


this will continue to happen as the install base numbers are too large to ignore (nevermind profitability)

my question is whether or not apple will be able to shift into the kind of market leading profitability when we see the inevitable improvements in the android ecosystem and continuing high level of phone quality coupled with downward pressure on prices

i see no future that doesn't include outright purchase of phones .. people hate being locked to carriers and phones are being built that are dual sim and carrier agnostic

i wonder how well apple will compete against android as this market matures (this market being a better android ecosystem, much better google web services (much, much better) and first class phones (the one plus and nexus 5 being prime examples of phones you can buy for 350 outright ... not to mention the rise of xiaomi)

no one will pay 300 for a 2-year contract phone if they can get a 300 phone on no-contract that is just as good .. it makes no sense

this is the risk apple is facing and i don't think it is a small one


----------



## GOB

"Just as good" in your eyes doesn't really mean anything in terms of the market. Any iPhone user would tell you that no other phone is "just as good". iOS and Android are two different platforms. Each catches up with the other on various features, but at the end of the day people have their preference and iOS cannot be beat in terms of usability and ecosystem to hundreds of millions of people - soon to be over a billion. There is no other platform that can match the quality, ease of use and security of the phone/tablet/PC/home/health/payments ecosystem that Apple has or will soon have. You may look at a spec sheet and say something is "just as good" but the reality is a different story to the most profitable sectors of the market.

Look at CurrentC which you predicted would take over Apple Pay and which has fast become the laughing stock of the payments world before even being rolled out. Consumers don't want them nor do they trust them. They want Apple Pay. Google Wallet will now suddenly become more successful by riding on the back of Apple Pay, but as long as Apple continues to lead the way I'm not worried about others hopping on. Apple continues to create or revolutionize markets, and that is an indicator of their unique and unrivalled position in the industry.

Xiaomi is rising in terms of sales, but we don't have a clue if they are even making a profit. Their margins must be razor thin. We saw Samsung rise, and now they're flaming out. Every company that tries the high volume, low cost approach has not been able to last. As for subsidies, Apple is showing huge growth in China, and only 20% of their iPhone sales are subsidized. That means 80% are paying unlocked prices (which are even higher than in North America, by the way). So yes, down the road if subsidies were to disappear there may be an impact, but it won't be catastrophic. And don't hold your breath for subsidies to disappear in the west - incentives are only getting stronger. Just look around at the deals the major carriers are offering - they are fighting tooth and nail to get high-value iPhone customers. 

You're also missing a little thing called brand value. I don't pretend that a good part of Apple's success is because of their branding. They're the most valuable brand in the world, and that's something that Xiaomi or any other competitor will never have. When you get into things like payments, health, and home security, a reliable and trustworthy brand is extremely important.

I'm not saying it's going to be smooth sailing and Apple will not face any headwinds. But to count it as an inevitability in the near term is silly. They've shown that they can identify and respond to challenges with a long term mindset. And as I've said countless times now, look at the Mac line for an argument against surefire commoditization. Three decades and counting.

Until I see unit sales flatlining or dropping, I remain unconcerned.


----------



## Just a Guy

Let's flip this over to a different industry...

Why would people buy Coke or Pepsi when generic brand colas (which many claim are just as good) are so much cheaper? Heck, even Pepsi is quite a second class contender compared to Coke. People pay a premium for it, and they are successful. The cheaper knock offs aren't even making a blip on market share yet often sell for half the price...

In fact, when he Pepsi challenge was going on, many people admitted that they actually did prefer the taste of Pepsi, but weren't going to change...because they "preferred" drinking Coke.

I'd bet most people on this board don't buy generic pop.

Logic has nothing to do with marketing and buyer's preference.


----------



## andrewf

I think it's fair to say that generic/private label colas have hurt Coke and Pepsi. Even though Cott does not have high profit share, they have hurt Coke/Pepsi's business, to the point that they diversified into other businesses. It is a similar case with iPhone. It doesn't matter that Apple competitors don't make much money. They don't have to in order to have a negative impact on iPhone sales and profitability in the future.


----------



## GOB

The coke/pepsi is a great example of the power of branding. Or Starbucks - plenty of cheaper and arguably better coffee out there. Apple has that kind of branding along with the products to back it up.

It matters that competitors don't make money because they will exit the business once they realize that they cannot compete. Businesses don't exist to take away iPhone sales - they exist to make money. If they can't do that, they will eventually spend their resources in a more productive way.

There's a difference in saying low-cost competitors will hurt iPhone sales and saying they will destroy them and force them to be commoditized. You make one argument for Coke and a different one for Apple.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> I'd bet most people on this board don't buy generic pop.
> 
> Logic has nothing to do with marketing and buyer's preference.


this is easy ...generic pop presents no compelling price alternative ... the price of a 6-pack of coke is easy to pick up on sale for very close to the price of generic pop .... which is not to say that branding doesn't matter .. i am absolutely conditioned to prefer coke, i like the brand and i prefer it to pepsi even though i completely believe that blind tasting shows its very hard to tell the difference between the two

when you compare unlocked phones you get a different story .... an apple iphone plus starts at 859 vs. a motorola nexus 5 which can be bought for 350 or a one-plus for the same price ... this is compelling pricing and makes a comparison a no-brainer

apple needs to worth $509 more to be competitive and it just isn't (which is not say the iphone plus isn't a very good phone ... i would buy one in a heartbeat but not at that price)


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> this is easy ...generic pop presents no compelling price alternative ... the price of a 6-pack of coke is easy to pick up on sale for very close to the price of generic pop .... which is not to say that branding doesn't matter .. i am absolutely conditioned to prefer coke, i like the brand and i prefer it to pepsi even though i completely believe that blind tasting shows its very hard to tell the difference between the two
> 
> when you compare unlocked phones you get a different story .... an apple iphone plus starts at 859 vs. a motorola nexus 5 which can be bought for 350 or a one-plus for the same price ... this is compelling pricing and makes a comparison a no-brainer
> 
> apple needs to worth $509 more to be competitive and *it just isn't* (which is not say the iphone plus isn't a very good phone ... i would buy one in a heartbeat but not at that price)


Yes it is...to more people than ever before. There is still a month long wait to get an iPhone 6 Plus. Get it through your head that you are one person out of billions, and there are countless people that see immense value in an iPhone over an alternative that may be a perfectly good product in its own right. What you're telling me is a product that takes 84% of the entire profit of the industry isn't competitive. Hilarious!

You're really reaching now with your pop explanation. Most people don't wait for sales to scoop up name brand pop. They just pay the extra because that's what they prefer. Are you implying that the majority of Coke and Pepsi is sold on sale? Next thing will be pubs going out of business because you can drink the exact same thing at home for 70% less. You can also play whatever music you like and watch what you want on TV.


----------



## Just a Guy

andrewf said:


> I think it's fair to say that generic/private label colas have hurt Coke and Pepsi. Even though Cott does not have high profit share, they have hurt Coke/Pepsi's business, to the point that they diversified into other businesses. It is a similar case with iPhone. It doesn't matter that Apple competitors don't make much money. They don't have to in order to have a negative impact on iPhone sales and profitability in the future.


Umm, I'd say Cott, with less than 5% market share, in an industry where Coke is growing market share, has very little impact on the company...

http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703818204576206653259805970


----------



## Just a Guy

fatcat said:


> this is easy ...generic pop presents no compelling price alternative ... the price of a 6-pack of coke is easy to pick up on sale for very close to the price of generic pop .... which is not to say that branding doesn't matter .. i am absolutely conditioned to prefer coke, i like the brand and i prefer it to pepsi even though i completely believe that blind tasting shows its very hard to tell the difference between the two.


Umm, I do the shopping in my family, generic is almost always at least 10% cheaper than the sale price and often more than 50% cheaper than the regular price.

Plus, there is a big taste difference between the two, they can't be confused, but a blind test can let you pick a taste you prefer.

It seems pretty clear to me, if not GOB, that, no matter how much proof we give you, you'll just ignore it in favour of your opinion.


----------



## andrewf

When Coke & Pepsi have combined 34% share globally, 5% sounds significant.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> "Just as good" in your eyes doesn't really mean anything in terms of the market. Any iPhone user would tell you that no other phone is "just as good". iOS and Android are two different platforms. Each catches up with the other on various features, but at the end of the day people have their preference and iOS cannot be beat in terms of usability and ecosystem to hundreds of millions of people - soon to be over a billion. There is no other platform that can match the quality, ease of use and security of the phone/tablet/PC/home/health/payments ecosystem that Apple has or will soon have. You may look at a spec sheet and say something is "just as good" but the reality is a different story to the most profitable sectors of the market.
> 
> Look at CurrentC which you predicted would take over Apple Pay and which has fast become the laughing stock of the payments world before even being rolled out. Consumers don't want them nor do they trust them. They want Apple Pay. Google Wallet will now suddenly become more successful by riding on the back of Apple Pay, but as long as Apple continues to lead the way I'm not worried about others hopping on. Apple continues to create or revolutionize markets, and that is an indicator of their unique and unrivalled position in the industry.
> 
> Xiaomi is rising in terms of sales, but we don't have a clue if they are even making a profit. Their margins must be razor thin. We saw Samsung rise, and now they're flaming out. Every company that tries the high volume, low cost approach has not been able to last. As for subsidies, Apple is showing huge growth in China, and only 20% of their iPhone sales are subsidized. That means 80% are paying unlocked prices (which are even higher than in North America, by the way). So yes, down the road if subsidies were to disappear there may be an impact, but it won't be catastrophic. And don't hold your breath for subsidies to disappear in the west - incentives are only getting stronger. Just look around at the deals the major carriers are offering - they are fighting tooth and nail to get high-value iPhone customers.
> 
> You're also missing a little thing called brand value. I don't pretend that a good part of Apple's success is because of their branding. They're the most valuable brand in the world, and that's something that Xiaomi or any other competitor will never have. When you get into things like payments, health, and home security, a reliable and trustworthy brand is extremely important.
> 
> I'm not saying it's going to be smooth sailing and Apple will not face any headwinds. But to count it as an inevitability in the near term is silly. They've shown that they can identify and respond to challenges with a long term mindset. And as I've said countless times now, look at the Mac line for an argument against surefire commoditization. Three decades and counting.
> 
> Until I see unit sales flatlining or dropping, I remain unconcerned.


first, lets be clear about a difference you and i have ... i have a fundamental assumption that the direction of cellphones is clear, they are eventually, sooner rather than later, are going to all be contract-free, people hate cell phone companies and they hate contracts

when they day comes that they can buy an off contract phone for the same price as an on contract phone, we will see a shift and this will put apple in a pickle, it will hit their brand hard causing them to pivot to high-end premium phones and i don't see the value in anything like a high-end premium phone .. they are commodities pure and simple, not quite as impersonal as tv's but commodities none-the-less

xiaomi is already profitable according to the wall street journal

http://online.wsj.com/articles/smartphone-maker-xiaomis-2013-profit-nearly-doubled-1415195999



> Its cheapest phone, the Redmi 1S, starts at 699 yuan ($114), and its latest flagship model, the Mi4, starts at 1,999 yuan ($327).


i posted the article link about development as an example of something apple needs to be very worried about, if we see a shift from ios first development to android first this is significant ... 

i bought an ipad because the tablet apps on ios are leagues ahead of android but on phones this is changing fast, android apps are improving rapidly and as you know most of us use something like only 20 apps regularly 

app developers are looking at the worldwide numbers on android as well as the app store issues of approval and so on and deciding they want to go with android first

the gap between the apple ecosystem and android ecosystem is shrinking daily as rapid development in both security, apps and phones take place

apple has plenty of brand value, but part of my point is that brand value in technology is much more fragile than it is in consumer staples for example ... 

sony being a prime example


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> It seems pretty clear to me, if not GOB, that, no matter how much proof we give you, you'll just ignore it in favour of your opinion.


goodness, all any of us are offering here are our opinions ... what the heck could you mean by "proof" ?


----------



## GOB

Proof in this case means data like growing unit sales, 80% of iPhones in China being purchased unsubsidized, 84% industry profit share, the success of the Mac line even after 30 years of supposed PC commoditization. This compares to your statements like "the iPhone is not competitive" and "they are commodities pure and simple". 

Obviously opinions play a big part, too. But your continual ignorance of the data presented to you is apparent. 

To address the facts you brought up. App developers still overwhelmingly choose iOS first. Europe has a particular affinity for Android, so perhaps it makes sense for developers in the area to consider Android first. I won't ignore this - it's a valid reason for concern, but only if it becomes prevalent in both quantity and geographical spread and I don't think this is a sure thing. The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are going to take away a lot of the share of the high-end Android phones, which are naturally the profitable consumers for developers. It's not about market share, it's about app revenue and ease of development. Market is correlated to a certain extent, of course, but looking at that alone is a foolish analysis. Any app develop with a shred of business acumen doesn't look only at worldwide numbers, but considers how much of that user base would ever consider or be able to use or purchase his app. I'm willing to bet that well over half the Android user base would never buy an app, and a good chunk may not even have a data connection. 

About the amazing phones costing $300 - they've been around for a while and they aren't selling in enough quantities to disrupt the growth path of the iPhone. What they are doing is a fine job of destroying Samsung, because as I've said all along, Samsung has nothing to differentiate themselves and their success was built off copying the iPhone combined with a massive advertising budget. Both those advantages have faded, and we're now seeing better products on quality (iPhone) and price (Nexus/Xiaomi) take their place. As I've said before, good, cheaper Android phones are far more of a threat to Samsung than Apple, and we are seeing the evidence of it. Much of the iPhone user base will not even consider an Android phone at this point - they are locked into an incredible ecosystem. Comparing it to a TV is ridiculous, because there is no ecosystem in a TV. Sony had no ecosystem to their products back in their heyday, nor did they have $150B to protect their position. It's a different game today.

Acknowledging the facts while presenting opinions to support or counter the meaning of those is what this forum should be about. Not just ignoring what doesn't support your thesis.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Proof in this case means data like growing unit sales, 80% of iPhones in China being purchased unsubsidized, 84% industry profit share, the success of the Mac line even after 30 years of supposed PC commoditization. This compares to your statements like "the iPhone is not competitive" and "they are commodities pure and simple".
> 
> Obviously opinions play a big part, too. But your continual ignorance of the data presented to you is apparent.
> 
> To address the facts you brought up. App developers still overwhelmingly choose iOS first. Europe has a particular affinity for Android, so perhaps it makes sense for developers in the area to consider Android first. I won't ignore this - it's a valid reason for concern, but only if it becomes prevalent in both quantity and geographical spread and I don't think this is a sure thing. The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are going to take away a lot of the share of the high-end Android phones, which are naturally the profitable consumers for developers. It's not about market share, it's about app revenue and ease of development. Market is correlated to a certain extent, of course, but looking at that alone is a foolish analysis. Any app develop with a shred of business acumen doesn't look only at worldwide numbers, but considers how much of that user base would ever consider or be able to use or purchase his app. I'm willing to bet that well over half the Android user base would never buy an app, and a good chunk may not even have a data connection.
> 
> About the amazing phones costing $300 - they've been around for a while and they aren't selling in enough quantities to disrupt the growth path of the iPhone. What they are doing is a fine job of destroying Samsung, because as I've said all along, Samsung has nothing to differentiate themselves and their success was built off copying the iPhone combined with a massive advertising budget. Both those advantages have faded, and we're now seeing better products on quality (iPhone) and price (Nexus/Xiaomi) take their place. As I've said before, good, cheaper Android phones are far more of a threat to Samsung than Apple, and we are seeing the evidence of it. Much of the iPhone user base will not even consider an Android phone at this point - they are locked into an incredible ecosystem. Comparing it to a TV is ridiculous, because there is no ecosystem in a TV. Sony had no ecosystem to their products back in their heyday, nor did they have $150B to protect their position. It's a different game today.
> 
> Acknowledging the facts while presenting opinions to support or counter the meaning of those is what this forum should be about. Not just ignoring what doesn't support your thesis.


neither you nor i can offer anything like "proof" for the future of apple ... we can only offer our opinions ...

let me try once again to be clear .. i think apple is a powerhouse, i have bought their products since 1989 ... they make great products ... their iphones and ipads and computers are beautifully designed and functional pieces of kit ... 

i have used both apple and android extensively on phones and tablets and windows and apple extensively on pc's

at present, apple has the most coherent and consistent user experience, especially on tablets

and they charge (and get) premium pricing for this experience

what i am saying is that the android user experience and the quality of the phones ... especially for the price ... is improving ... rapidly, very rapidly ... and i believe that this improvement is narrowing the gap much faster than apple is widening the gap via innovation

by which i mean that the gap between the first choice apple and its competition is closing, i think more rapidly than people think

when the day comes (and i see no reason why it won't) that android offers a compelling user experience, interface and phone quality, apple will have to rethink how it does business

the exact thing has happened in windows where microsoft has essentially caught apple and now offers an os that is just as good for most people (i prefer osx only because i am used to it, i don't think it's the best os at all)

i do not think that apple is growing its innovation at a fast enough pace to remain the undisputed market leader

this is my point, i am not saying that apple isn't the current market leader nor that they don't offer a compelling user experience

i see no reason why apple won't go the way of sony, indeed, it is almost a law, innovation is very, very difficult to do consistently which is why we see so many great names in technology now gone quiet


----------



## Just a Guy

andrewf said:


> When Coke & Pepsi have combined 34% share globally, 5% sounds significant.











I see the link I provided didn't let you actually read the article...somehow I got around the firewall through Google originally...but, in the cola category, your numbers are a little off.


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## SpIcEz

Competition is coming in the epayment world.

"NXP Gives Android Its Apple Pay"
http://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1324531


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## andrewf

So the moat for Apple Pay has to be Touch ID. It is currently better than any of the other biometric authentication solutions in the industry, but the implementation require big ole bezels. To me, it might make sense to put it on the reverse. On screen buttons are superior anyway, so putting a sensor on the back might make more sense.


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## SpIcEz

Is it better than Androids facial recognition? In my opinion, they are at least on par.
Could Androids facial recognition not be tied in to an ePay solution using the NXP chip?

In any case, there is certainly room for both solutions once they both mature in a few years and adoption starts to become mainstream.
Especially considering, with the use of this System on a Chip from NXP, Apple Pay would no longer have a technological and security advantage and from my understanding would use the same infrastructure vendor side.


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## andrewf

I think Android facial recognition can be defeated with a printed image of the person's face... I don't think facial recognition will ever be a good solution as it is a bit too fiddly to be convenient.

Edit: Apparently they fixed this issue in 4.4 by adding a check for blinking, etc. I guess it would require video of a face to defeat, in that case.


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## GOB

Apple Pay doesn't need to be the only mobile payment option out there. It just needs to be the best, which it is, and I don't see that changing. As long the industry keeps following Apple like a lost dog, I remain unconcerned about Apple's future. They are the clear leaders in technology whether you like them or not or whether you use their products or not. The argument that Apple is doomed because there is competition is a ridiculous one. Every business in every industry has competition, and the best ones thrive in it. 

TouchID is an essential part of Apple Pay, and replacing that step with a swipe-style scanner or facial recognition is a big step backwards in ease of use. I don't agree with putting it on the back - too much fiddling around required not to mention the fact that using a case would be problematic. Eventually, it will be built into the screen. is my guess.


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## GoldStone

Apple Pay represented ~1% of all transactions at Whole Foods Market in the first 17 days since the launch.

That is amazing.


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## m3s

My MacBook prompted me to the free OS upgrade today. While I love getting yet another free upgrade, the reviews sound exactly like what happened to my iPhone 4. The new OS is full of graphical niceties that kills performance on the older devices. I can't help but think this is an ingenious marketing ploy by Apple. Yosemite apparently resembles the latest iOS style and graphics.

On the iPhone, I was eventually able to dial out most of the graphical transitions but it is still noticeably slower than before. I planned to upgrade for the larger screen anyways while it still fetches a decent price (A friend wants to buy it for his kid) For the MacBook, I bought it with the intention of upgrading the RAM and storage to SSD at some point. I won't upgrade to Yosemite until then.

Besides the small screen, the iPhone 4 would otherwise be perfectly fine for years to come. My MacBook is upgradable (unlike the new ones) and I expect it to last for many years to come as well (it has already outlasted my horrid Sony Vaio nightmare) I imagine Apple devices are statistically used longer and this was an Apple-post-Jobs marketing strategy.


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## fatcat

m3s said:


> My MacBook prompted me to the free OS upgrade today. While I love getting yet another free upgrade, the reviews sound exactly like what happened to my iPhone 4. The new OS is full of graphical niceties that kills performance on the older devices. I can't help but think this is an ingenious marketing ploy by Apple. Yosemite apparently resembles the latest iOS style and graphics.
> 
> On the iPhone, I was eventually able to dial out most of the graphical transitions but it is still noticeably slower than before. I planned to upgrade for the larger screen anyways while it still fetches a decent price (A friend wants to buy it for his kid) For the MacBook, I bought it with the intention of upgrading the RAM and storage to SSD at some point. I won't upgrade to Yosemite until then.
> 
> Besides the small screen, the iPhone 4 would otherwise be perfectly fine for years to come. My MacBook is upgradable (unlike the new ones) and I expect it to last for many years to come as well (it has already outlasted my horrid Sony Vaio nightmare) I imagine Apple devices are statistically used longer and this was an Apple-post-Jobs marketing strategy.


both my ipod touch 5th gen and iphone 4s are so slow on ios 8 that i am going to sell them both and buy an android phone ... i am not planning to upgrade to yosemite anytime soon ... my ipad air works great and i will keep it

apple pay is currently the easiest, most friction free nfc payment system in place, no question and i agree that face recognition is a non-starter, too clunky and unreliable ... fingerprint is perfect ... 

the problem is that only a tiny fraction of smartphones in use are capable of using apple pay since it only works on the iphone-6 and then the 5 if paired with an apple watch (now costing from 500 to 5000 i read)

i have to believe that android will be breathing hot and heavy down apple's neck

i think that as in so many other areas, apple's innovation will be quickly copied by android phones ... whether they are able to implement a system as easy as apple's remains to be seen but i see no reason why they won't


----------



## GOB

Here's a prime example of why marketshare is such a useless statistic when looked at in isolation:


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## GOB

For the market share enthusiasts - enterprise statistics:


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## andrewf

0 BB?

Hmmmmmmm..... That does not match my experience, but then again, I'm just down the street from KW.


----------



## indexxx

I know- this is just a Benzinga staff writer. But I thought I'd post this to fan the flames a bit around here... isn't this the right room for the Argument Clinic?

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...partner_feed&utm_content=analyst_ratings_page


----------



## andrewf

I doubt 70% of the population has even heard of Apple Pay, much less is able to affirm an intention to buy an iPhone 6 on that basis. You really have to question the validity of some of these consumer intention surveys.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> 0 BB?
> 
> Hmmmmmmm..... That does not match my experience, but then again, I'm just down the street from KW.


These are new activations, so I'm sure there are plenty of legacy BB devices. But the vast majority will eventually be replaced by iOS and Android.


----------



## andrewf

But zero activations for BB in the corp market? I'm not sure that's credible. My employer is still issuing BBs, and it certainly can't be the only one.


----------



## GOB

Well, you are right. I looked into the report and found this: 



> Due to the fact that RIM devices use only the BlackBerry® Enterprise Server for corporate email access, Good does not have insight into BlackBerry handset activation trends; and they are not reflected in this report.


So yes, BB is non-zero and probably greater than 1%, but I'm fairly certain it's not significant and trending downwards. I personally don't know any company that still issues BBs, and the company itself has all but exited the handset market.

Blackberry is not a threat to Apple, so I think the data is relevant for the purpose it is meant to highlight.


----------



## braintootired

fatcat said:


> both my ipod touch 5th gen and iphone 4s are so slow on ios 8 that i am going to sell them both and buy an android phone ... i am not planning to upgrade to yosemite anytime soon ... my ipad air works great and i will keep it


Have you tried reducing motion and transparency? My 4S works great after they are turned off.


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## indexxx

News release-

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-just-made-deal-put-131216140.html


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## GOB

Apple is going to be huge in China. Plenty of room for both Xiaomi and Apple to coexist in that massive space. Outlook for everyone else looks quite poor.


----------



## Pluto

Aside from the pros and cons of market share, earnings, revenues The way I see it is, The Trend is Your Friend. By trend I mean stock price trend. Once it looks like this run up is out of gas, I'm bailing. The stock price is going to end up discounting future good news. Probably, then get back in later after a consolidation.


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## GOB

You may be right about that. There will definitely be consolidation/retracement at some point, but I have no idea where that will be. This is a long term holding for me. Buyback and dividend growth potential is absolutely massive. I'm holding for that reason and the fact I don't want to trigger cap gains tax. Position is large enough that dividends will be providing a good chunk of my retirement income.


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## fatcat

this is an example of the kind of challenge apple will face, especially in countries less wealthy than the west but in the west also
nokia has come out with a quad-core, 2048x1536, 318 gram tablet that basically is a ripoff of the ipad mini
but sells for $249 vs $500 for an actual ipad

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2014...oid-tablet-with-smartphones-likely-to-follow/

since the vast majority of chinese are using android, the os will be familiar

to me, just as important is the proof-of-concept
you can turn out a very, very good tablet at price points that are going to plummet

this will be a problem for apple as they will have to prove that their ecosystem is precisely twice as good as androids
and on tablets (not phones by any means) i think ios _is_ better but not twice better

a customer looking at both of these tablets at the same time and thinking about getting to keep 250 in his pocket and walk out with a very nice tablet or buying the apple for 500 ... this has to be a problem for apple (and samsung since this substantially less than a corresponding samsung tablet also)

another clear sign of commoditization and a race to the bottom as we are seeing in most of technology


----------



## GOB

Yes, there is a race to the bottom, for everyone but Apple. Here's a hint - when the company making all the money is doing something different, it's not their strategy that's flawed - it's everyone else's. 

You should at least get the pricing correct when you're making your point. The newest iPad Mini starts at $399 (not $500), and is obviously far better than the Nokia tablet. Apple also sells the iPad Mini 2 for $299 and the original iPad Mini for $249. Believe it or not, more people would take an older iPad over a new Nokia tablet for the same cost. This strategy has been proven to work well with iPhones especially in less affluent nations. You seem to focus on price and specs alone when in reality to the average consumer it's much more than that. 

Chinese who can afford the latest iPad will get it (and there are plenty of people like that). Those who can't will go for a cheaper iPad, because they believe in Apple's brand, quality and ecosystem. Sure, some will buy a Nokia tablet but I highly doubt it will move the needle. 

By the way, this is not some sort of revelation. There have been plenty of cheap tablets around for years, from Samsung to Google to an endless number of Chinese vendors, yet Apple continues to be the only one making any money in it. 

Still waiting for that PC commoditization while Mac sales continue to surge. 30 years and counting...

Lastly, I'm going to correct your opening sentence to reflect reality:



fatcat said:


> this is an example of the kind of challenge apple *has faced and overcome since the introduction of the iPod, selling more and more devices every single year*


One cannot count the number of (supposed) iPod, iPhone and iPad killers there have been. Each new device always has something that will spell Apple's doom, according to some braindead analyst. I'll keep laughing all the way to the bank.

Your argument is akin to saying that Tata is going to wipe out the entire auto industry because they make vehicles that get from point A to point B for extremely low cost. Much easier to commoditize a vehicle than a phone/computer/tablet ecosystem with ties to privacy and security, payments, health and home automation, don't you think?


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Yes, there is a race to the bottom, for everyone but Apple. Here's a hint - when the company making all the money is doing something different, it's not their strategy that's flawed - it's everyone else's.
> 
> You should at least get the pricing correct when you're making your point. The newest iPad Mini starts at $399 (not $500), and is obviously far better than the Nokia tablet. Apple also sells the iPad Mini 2 for $299 and the original iPad Mini for $249.


fair enough ... the entry level ipad mini 3 in canada is 439 plus tax ... i dont know how pricing will end up in front of the chinese consumer but i suspect the numbers will be compelling and this is just the beginning of intense downward pressure on pricing

all products, even toasters, have some degree of premium pricing and apple will do fine for that segment but most mass market, mass adopted technology passes into generic status where the level of function and quality stabilizes at lower and lower price points

the last 30 years have seen an upward arc in the devlopment of newer, faster, better technology in many areas like pc's tablets and phones

but now we see the infrastructure in place to begin producing these products at a high level of quality very cheaply

it will be harder and harder for apple to distinguish themselves from the competition and retain premium pricing

apple knows this which is why we see them branching into the enterprise with hardware and payment systems and high-concept design with the watch

the question is: how well will they be able to pivot to new lines of revenue and how will commoditization affect their core business which is selling premium technology products

i think that as the distinction between competing products begins to blur, it will be harder for apple to get their premium

this is my main point


----------



## indexxx

It's interesting that if one goes back to the first few pages of this thread three years or so ago, people were making the EXACT same arguments against Apple. And we all know that three years is a long time in tech. Still waiting for it to fall from the tree here... . And while the bears have been naysaying their way along, Apple keeps exploding.


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## andrewf

They still sell the original iPad mini? It's a rubbish device, even for the price.


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> fair enough ... the entry level ipad mini 3 in canada is 439 plus tax ... i dont know how pricing will end up in front of the chinese consumer but i suspect the numbers will be compelling and this is just the beginning of intense downward pressure on pricing


Just the beginning? You're hilarious. The pricing wars against Apple have been going on forever, and especially noticeable since the iPod. That's over a decade ago. Please don't act like Apple hasn't faced and overcome pricing pressure from competitors before.



andrewf said:


> They still sell the original iPad mini? It's a rubbish device, even for the price.


No, it isn't. It's a perfectly functional tablet for a more basic user. At least it doesn't turn into a brick after a few months like the Nexus 7.



indexxx said:


> It's interesting that if one goes back to the first few pages of this thread three years or so ago, people were making the EXACT same arguments against Apple. And we all know that three years is a long time in tech. Still waiting for it to fall from the tree here... . And while the bears have been naysaying their way along, Apple keeps exploding.


And this is the problem. Fatcat will be repeating himself 2, 5, 10 years from now saying the same thing over and over and bringing up each new Apple killing device. And while I don't discount the fact that he may one day be right, there is plenty of evidence to show that Apple can succeed without competing on price, because they already are. If there are signs of it happening, that's when it should be discussed. Not when Apple is about to sell the most iPhones it ever has and make the most money it ever has. Not when there is a month long waiting list for their most expensive high margin iPhone. Not when there are a billion people entering the middle class who all aspire to having iPhones. 

Might as well say the world is going to end one day, so Apple is doomed.


----------



## fatcat

of course, i have said numerous times that i own and have bought a huge amount of apple gear over the last 30 years ... i have nothing against apple, apple makes very good products .... this has nothing to do with apple

also, the current state of companies is not what we buy, we buy the _future_ of companies, that's what i am interested in

technology is one of the few areas we see continual downward pressure on prices in virtually every area, unlike most other areas

the ipad is a good example of what i am talking about, we have seen continual slow down in sales of ipads and the reason (which i believe is correct) is that they are "too good" ...they are now fast enough and good looking and light and so on that buyers see no compelling reason to upgrade .. the current ipad mini 3 is a good example, there is no compelling reason at all to buy this tablet and spend the extra cash over the previous mini ... none ... there really is no compelling reason to buy the new ipad-air either

my base assumption is that phones will soon all be bought off-contract, people hate contracts and they hate the carriers but they go with contracts to get the latest phones ... if you are spending 200 to get a samsung on contract, why not spend 300 and get an apple ?

in the meantime, off contract phones are getting very good and very cheap and i see no reason why this won't continue

unless apple continues to innovate at a high level, which they no longer are doing, their watch is ok but no better than many competitors, their iphone-6 is very good but there are many excellent competitors and god knows they release like a flood month after month ... apple's mac sales are fine but this is an area that is slowing as people do more on small devices

exactly like sony, apple must distinguish themselves in a category (mobile computing devices) that is reaching higher levels of quality and lower and lower price points

to do this they must innovate and their innovation has slowed considerably

they face the exact same fate as sony, once a great tech but inevitably replaced by a newer, more innovative player

this is the risk apple faces and i think it is not a small one

if they start missing numbers they are going to get hammered by people who expect them to reach the mountain top every time

but at present, they look good .... there is no way i would denote them a long term hold however, indeed every major tech company has problems, google is facing changing ad placements, ibm is possibly in real trouble depending on who you believe, intel, microsoft ... all of these guys are one or two tech innovations away from ending up like blackberry


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## GOB

Nice. I'll wait for Apple to report zero sales of iPad Air 2 and iPad Mini 3 then, since there's no compelling reason to buy. Your opinions on innovation are your own and not reflective of reality. 64-bit, Swift, Metal, massive overhaul to iOS and OSX to open it up to developers, ApplePay, HealthKit, Apple Watch etc. If you can find me a more innovative tech company and back it up with what they've actually done that is shaping current and future technology, I'm all ears. Until then, I don't buy your claim that Apple no longer innovates and nor should anyone else. It's painfully obviously that the entire industry hangs on everything Apple does and there are no signs of that changing. 

Your opinions on Apple Watch are useless as are mine and anybody elses. Wait until you try it and then make an opinion. Remember the ridicule the iPad got in 2010? Now sales of 10 million are "disappointing". Not bad for a product that was u uninnovative and destined to be a flop according to the majority. 

Regarding off-contract phones, I've addressed this point already and you refuse to acknowledge it. Carriers are begging users to sign phone contracts and offering killer iPhone deals for it. In China the vast majority of iPhone sales are already off-contract, yet sales are growing massively. So either way, I don't see too much trouble whatever happens. You refuse to acknowledge the facts. 

The one thing you are correct about is that the iPad replacement cycle is a long one because the product is so good. But people aren't switching from iPad to a different device. They're just keeping them longer. Eventually they will need a replacement and will likely continue on the iPad path. This is a net benefit to Apple even if it means iPad growth will be slower than some expected. In the meantime there are plenty of new iPad customers out there. 

Apple is a long term hold as long as they continue on the path they're on. Of course things can change, and if they do I can be out in a minute. But I won't bet on that happening anytime soon, and foregoing what will likely be the greatest return of capital to shareholders in the history of the markets doesn't sound like a good idea to me. I'm quite confident AAPL will break the trillion dollar market cap barrier in fairly short order. 

I would appreciate if you could actually respond to points I've made regarding Apple's innovation and the carrier contract data. Otherwise your posts are redundant and meaningless.


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> Nice. I'll wait for Apple to report zero sales of iPad Air 2 and iPad Mini 3 then, since there's no compelling reason to buy. Your opinions on innovation are your own and not reflective of reality. 64-bit, Swift, Metal, massive overhaul to iOS and OSX to open it up to developers, ApplePay, HealthKit, Apple Watch etc. If you can find me a more innovative tech company and back it up with what they've actually done that is shaping current and future technology, I'm all ears. Until then, I don't buy your claim that Apple no longer innovates and nor should anyone else. It's painfully obviously that the entire industry hangs on everything Apple does and there are no signs of that changing.


 the question is not whether apple is innovating, they are, it is whether they can continue innovating at a level that will support the expectations baked into the stock price and equally important, can they continue to innovate at a level that will command premium pricing for the product



> Regarding off-contract phones, I've addressed this point already and you refuse to acknowledge it. Carriers are begging users to sign phone contracts and offering killer iPhone deals for it. In China the vast majority of iPhone sales are already off-contract, yet sales are growing massively. So either way, I don't see too much trouble whatever happens. You refuse to acknowledge the facts.


we will have to disagree here, i see no reason why consumers will want to sign contracts if they don't have to and when it comes to off-contract phone-to-phone pricing, apple asks for a very high premium that i think they will have trouble getting



> The one thing you are correct about is that the iPad replacement cycle is a long one because the product is so good. But people aren't switching from iPad to a different device. They're just keeping them longer. Eventually they will need a replacement and will likely continue on the iPad path. This is a net benefit to Apple even if it means iPad growth will be slower than some expected. In the meantime there are plenty of new iPad customers out there.


apple is not going to go broke making ipads but they will come under increasing price-pressure, they also have an exceptional supply chain so they can deliver products at lower price points, this will of course put pressure on their brand which is one of selling premium products



> Apple is a long term hold as long as they continue on the path they're on. Of course things can change, and if they do I can be out in a minute. But I won't bet on that happening anytime soon, and foregoing what will likely be the greatest return of capital to shareholders in the history of the markets doesn't sound like a good idea to me. I'm quite confident AAPL will break the trillion dollar market cap barrier in fairly short order.


neither of can predict the future ... for me, the phrase "long term hold" in the technology sector, just does not work, i have seen too many great names go under ... and many more to come


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## GOB

Thanks for the response. I have trouble though figuring out how you can disagree with facts. Majority of iPhone sales in China are off contract. iPhone growth in China is massive, the largest of any country revenue-wise. Those are both facts, plain and simple. There can be no agreement or disagreement. You must reconcile this fact with your opinions about the future, keeping in mind that China still has massive wealth growth ahead of it for years to come. 

Now if you were to say that in North America subsidies are going to disappear and purchase behaviour may be affected, then that's a valid concern. But the current trend is for even more attractive subsidies for iPhone users, because they are so valuable.

Keep in mind AAPL isn't obscenly overvalued. There are always concerns as with any company. These concerns are reflected in a below-market multiple despite obvious market beating growth in the coming quarters. As long as this is the case there's no reason to sell and if this continues to be the case as it has for several years then AAPL is indeed a good long term hold. When you compare other tech companies that have risen and fallen, have you examined their valuations at the peak? Have you examined the differences in ecosystem strength and financial strength?


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## Pluto

Just a note to fatcat: Your basic assumption is that you have no faith in appl management, and that since you can't see how they will navigate and/or circumvent this or that challenge, then they can't either. They have proved what they can do year after year...one rabbit after another comes out of the hat. Don't worry, be happy. Enjoy the ride. Hop off the train when the trend changes.


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## GOB

That's a good way to put it, Pluto. At this point I think it's more of a challenge to take down a $700B company with differentiated products, top-notch management team and the best brand in the world than it is for said company to stay successful, despite the hiccups and challenges that will be faced along the way. Comparing to Sony and RIM is just silly.


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## fatcat

Pluto said:


> Just a note to fatcat: Your basic assumption is that you have no faith in appl management, and that since you can't see how they will navigate and/or circumvent this or that challenge, then they can't either. They have proved what they can do year after year...one rabbit after another comes out of the hat. Don't worry, be happy. Enjoy the ride. Hop off the train when the trend changes.


i have faith in apple's management, i have faith in their supply chain and customer service which are second to none, their products are high quality

i am asking the question: will apple continue to innovate over the next 10 years as it has in the last ten years ? ... will the "slope" of innovation be as steep ? ... i already have my answer which is "no", they have slowed and are not innovating as they used to ... the product launches since jobs died have been good, solid products but nothing that breaks any mold, no new categories, no really fresh advances

second, their competition, in the meantime is catching up, android (and even poor windows) phones are getting very, very good, the android ui and ecosystem (look at the reviews of lollipop) is improving daily ... and more important, the android installed base worldwide dwarfs apple, just dwarfs it ... this does not portend well since all of these people are using and comfortable with android 

third, i see hardware as entering the commoditization phase and nothing apple has rolled out has changed that ... you will soon be able to buy a really fantastic, fast phone with a beautiful screen off contract for $250 ... there is no logic at all that i can see to people entering into phone contracts when excellent phones can be had for under $300 ... the apple experience doesn't command a $500+ premium for the experience ... 

apple has always, always styled itself a premium brand and if we enter a world of high-quality tablets for $200 and high-quality phones for $250 i think apple will need to confront the meaning of their brand

OR ... they must re-innovate and invent yet another category and drive more sales

this is my point, apple, in order to remain brand-consistent, must innovate, they must invent and they must lead and they plainly are not, good though their current products may be

the apple watch is, in my opinion, proof that apple has slowed, based on what i see, this is just a me-too product, nothing new, it doesn't do anything that 10 other watches don't do already


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## GOB

Just one question for you. When would you say PC hardware entered the commoditization phase? I assume after 30 it must have happened by now, so when did it? And how come, despite hardware commoditization, Apple is growing Mac sales while the PC market declines, despite having products that are priced way, way higher than perfectly good, cheap PCs? No contract advantages, nothing. Windows has had many, many years to catch up to OS X, and one could argue the choice between them is just a matter of preference. But $1000+ Macs are doing so much better than $300-400 PCs. RAM and processing power are now dirt cheap, yet people are still choosing expensive Macs. Explain, please.

This is a much better example than comparing Apple to Sony or RIM, because you're literally comparing Apple to Apple. Quality of management, strength of the brand and company are all constant. Two different product lines, but they both exhibit strikingly similar characteristics (intense competition, pricing race to the bottom, Apple maintaining and growing high end share/profits). Nothing else you say about the topic has much merit unless you can debate your way out of this analogy, in my opinion.


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> Just one question for you. When would you say PC hardware entered the commoditization phase? I assume after 30 it must have happened by now, so when did it? And how come, despite hardware commoditization, Apple is growing Mac sales while the PC market declines, despite having products that are priced way, way higher than perfectly good, cheap PCs? No contract advantages, nothing. Windows has had many, many years to catch up to OS X, and one could argue the choice between them is just a matter of preference. But $1000+ Macs are doing so much better than $300-400 PCs. RAM and processing power are now dirt cheap, yet people are still choosing expensive Macs. Explain, please.


macs account for about 5% of total pc sales ... that means 95% are choosing windows and chrome and linux ... sales are falling in this segment for the same reason that phablets are growing, a lot of people dont need or want a pc ... in any event 95 out of 100 choose a low-cost windows pc ... what do you mean by $1000 macs doing "better" than pc's ? ... it doesn't make sense to me ... so macs are selling better in a category that is going to continue to shrink ?

as to the issue of commoditization, thats easy, it will happen when the speed of the processor and the quality of screen are so good at a low enough price point that one brand begins to resemble another

i'll once again use the example of tv's which are now completely commoditized, a sony is as good as a toshiba which is as good as a samsung ... it doesn't matter, they are all so good and so cheap that brand has lost most but not all of its value

apple still retains brand value and premium pricing but the gap is narrowing between them and their competitors ... it will continue to narrow, prices will continue to fall and unless apple re-innovates, the value of their brand will erode ... how fast this will happen is hard to predict

on the other hand, if apple holds a launch in 2015 and tells the world that their watch can make phone calls by itself and last 5 days on a battery charge and run millions of apps on its own ... well, then we have a whole new game, a whole new category

all anyone has to do is copy apple which is a thousand times easier than actually innovating ... the arc is so much flatter and easier to climb and this gives the competition a built in advantage over apple ... it is much easier to copy and catch up than it is to innovate and create distance especially in technology where we are now see an absolute race to the bottom in pricing

most of the growth markets ahead are markets with median incomes a fraction of the developed west, cost matters, a lot, to this group

i assure you that regular working class chinese are not spending $799 (or whatever it is) to outright buy an iphone when they can buy a competitior for a 1/3 as much

people in brazil, china, indonesia and india are going to buy android phones by far ... overwhelmingly ... they are even buying the firefox os ... they are buying phones they can afford

india, which is one of the biggest future markets doesnt even sell phones on contract, they are purchased outright so price is a huge factor ... apple only started to sell when they implemented the carrier subsidy system, thats the only way apple can compete especially in the developing world

i think the contract system for phones is toast, its a dying model and thats going to be a problem for apple because side by side, phone to phone, apple is simply not worth the premium and this will only get worse for apple as phone quality improves and prices fall ... and i see no reason why this won't happen

in order to stay ahead apple must innovate and innovating is very hard to do especially if you have already done it ... a bunch of times


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## GOB

Yep...as expected, no explanation. Just brushing it off and changing the topic, as usual. 

For the record, this is what I mean:









You can brush off the overall marketshare as small (by the way, it's closer to 8% than 5% and much higher in the more lucrative geographies), but you *still* haven't explained why expensive Macs are growing while cheap PCs are declining. That flies directly in the face of your commoditization theory - their relative marketshares are irrelevant. How can a high-margin, expensive product line increase market share in such a mature, commoditized market flooded with cheap devices?



> Apple’s Mac marketshare hit record highs during the third calendar quarter of 2014, according to research firm IDC. Official numbers from the firm’s quarterly PC tracker show that Apple’s Q3 shipments topped 2.34 million Macs moved during the quarter in the U.S., giving it 13.4 percent market share and putting it in third place behind HP and Dell. That’s the best market share Apple has every achieved in the PC market, which for IDC’s purposes, doesn’t even include tablets like the iPad.


It's clear from your refusal about the happenings of Chinese market that you still have no regard for the facts. Your assurances mean absolutely nothing when the facts tell the opposite story. The same thing ad nauseam.

And yeah, it's so much easier being the competition. The competition must be really enjoying their advantage. You know, with HTC, BBRY, LG, Nokia trying so hard to turn a profit and Samsung's profits tanking 74% in a year. I bet Apple envies these guys so much.


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## kcowan

fatcat said:


> i think ios _is_ better but not twice better


I agree but I do not feel it has to be twice better. Anything that avoids the "erector set" of Windoze and Android will command a premium. How much of a premium remains to be seen.

(I paid $1000 for DWs fully loaded iPad with Applecare. She had been a Windows user for years and it has changed her life. I continue to use my Win7 laptop that cost me $300. But my Android phone is on the edge. When iPhone 6 is shipping in volume, I will probably pick up a good used 4S. Her 4S seems to do everything she needs. We bought it when the 5S was shipping in volume.)


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## Pluto

fatcat. yes you are asking will they continue to innovate. some say yes, some say no, some say they don't know. What I say is 
the stock price is going up. The trend is your friend. Go with the trend. What some people may or may not believe about innovation, or lack of innovation during the next 10 years isn't stopping the current trend. 
My opinion is that their innovation capabilities remains to be seen. You seem to think it is impossible for them to innovate after Jobs died. That's like saying GE must have tanked for good after Edison died, yet GE went up over 40 X's from early 1980's to 2000, long long after the original founder was no more. 

It's not wise for an investor to latch on to assumptions about aapl that might not be true, especially when the stock price appreciation belies the assumption.


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## fatcat

kcowan said:


> I agree but I do not feel it has to be twice better. Anything that avoids the "erector set" of Windoze and Android will command a premium. How much of a premium remains to be seen.
> 
> (I paid $1000 for DWs fully loaded iPad with Applecare. She had been a Windows user for years and it has changed her life. I continue to use my Win7 laptop that cost me $300. But my Android phone is on the edge. When iPhone 6 is shipping in volume, I will probably pick up a good used 4S. Her 4S seems to do everything she needs. We bought it when the 5S was shipping in volume.)


i would warn against the 4S, i have one and ios8 runs poorly on it, it also runs poorly on my ipod touch 5 ... you need horsepower to push ios8 around

the new android 5.0, lollipop is engineered to run faster on older phones and reviews have been very good so far

you don't represent the future market for smartphones ... the future market has much, much less disposable income ... they choose android for a reason, it's affordable, they don't care about the os, they learn it and they use it

much of my thesis about apple's future problems revolves my contention that off-contract phones are the future and apple cannot compete in a world of unsubsidized phones

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news...s-mean-more-expensive-smartphones-090814.html



> There's possible bad news on the horizon for the Apple company and its stockholders — not to mention ordinary consumers who want to buy the latest iProducts but think current iPrices are already too high: the up-front cost of an iPhone and other devices, whether from Apple or otherwise, is due to rise, now that various carriers have decided to stop subsidizing them.
> 
> *AndroidHeadlines reported two weeks ago that Chinese wireless-service carriers will be ending their device subsidies, and that “high-end device sales” were sure to suffer as a result.
> *
> On Sept. 7, The Wall Street Journal reported a similar story about carriers in the U.S. (especially Apple, which is unveiling a new and more expensive iPhone this week): “In recent years, Americans have been spared the sticker shock of paying full price for a new iPhone because wireless operators offered upfront discounts approaching $500 a phone.”
> 
> *In China, which due to its enormous population has more wireless subscribers than any market in the world, the subsidy is even higher: a latest-gen iPhone or Samsung Galaxy that would ordinarily cost $800 “only” costs $100 or $200 to the end user. (Bear in mind: the average Chinese household income is only about one-eighth the average American household income. Even when purchasing power parity is taken into account, a $500 or $600 subsidy is worth far more to the average Chinese citizen than the average American.)*


note that the difference between and iphone and samsung is only a $100 bucks .. what the heck why not choose the best ? ... when that difference becomes $500, you have a new ballgame

as i said above, in india, which is an even bigger market than china, they buy off-contract so price is huge

apple has a much tougher time competing against unsubsidized phones on a phone to phone basis and the competition is getting better and better, cheaper and cheaper

if you are in a staples, look at moto-g and see what you can now buy for $200, an extraordinarily good phone and you are contract free and doesn't that feel good ?


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## fatcat

Pluto said:


> fatcat. yes you are asking will they continue to innovate. some say yes, some say no, some say they don't know. What I say is
> the stock price is going up. The trend is your friend. Go with the trend. What some people may or may not believe about innovation, or lack of innovation during the next 10 years isn't stopping the current trend.


first, i own apple in an etf and am very happy to do do, i wouldn't own them outright but they are goosing qqq nicely ... at present the company looks very good



> My opinion is that their innovation capabilities remains to be seen. You seem to think it is impossible for them to innovate after Jobs died. That's like saying GE must have tanked for good after Edison died, yet GE went up over 40 X's from early 1980's to 2000, long long after the original founder was no more.


my theory regarding innovation is essentially what i see as someone who has followed them closely for a long time ... they have slowed their pace of innovation considerably, this is normal, this is to be expected, whether it came from steve jobs genius or not, the odds against a company inventing completely new categories again and again are high and if my thesis about phone commoditization and off-contract pans out then new category creation will be essential for apple

if we can make phone calls from the apple watch without having an iphone in our pocket, the game is set anew and i will have to do the walk of shame because apple will have done it again (i'll probably walk to an apple store and buy one of the damn things) at a minimum, i have owned at least 100 apple products from laptops to desktops to ipod, ipads and iphones going back to 87 ... i love apple products



> It's not wise for an investor to latch on to assumptions about aapl that might not be true, especially when the stock price appreciation belies the assumption.


i agree completely ... :biggrin: ... about the assumption part ... 

stock prices go up and they go down and they go sideways

i don't give a hoot about stock prices ... i am interested in companies ... in the long term (not the short term) it is companies, products and services that drive stock prices

ps. a bet against apple at the moment looks like a foolish bet, i am interested in how they will look a year from now which of course is more than enough time to get out with good profits or even to buy more


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## GOB

My goodness...for the last time, Apple is doing phenomenally well in China without relying on subsidies. Please don't fill this thread with your BS analysis with no regard for facts. Opinions are fine, but presenting them as fact when they are factually incorrect is not. Once again, here are Tim Cook's words on the last conference call. Keep in mind he cannot lie about the numbers. 



> And this weekend -- this past weekend we launched it with China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. This was the first time we've launched a new iPhone with all three carriers and we've done it at the early stages of the 4G rollout and so I am incredibly bullish over it.
> 
> In terms of subsidies there are regulatory pressures on subsidies. We have -- we've seen that. However, *only 20% of the iPhones that we've been selling in China have had a traditional subsidy applied to it and so the vast majority don't.
> 
> And so will it make a difference with that 20%, I don't know yet. Intuitively you were thinking, it would, but it's at least a percentage of a 20% instead of a percentage of 100%.*
> 
> And so when I look at China, I see an enormous market where there are more people graduating into the middle class than any nation on earth in history and just an incredible market where people brought the latest technology and products that we were providing.
> 
> And so we're investing like crazy in the market. We're more than doubling our stores. We've got 15 in Greater China today. We're going to be close to 40 in the next couple of years. We've expanded our online store to cover now 315 cities in China. The revenue results for Q4 were up more than double the previous year.
> 
> The App Store is growing. Chinese developers have now created a 150,000 apps -- of the apps on the App Store and so I see lots of very, very positive factors there and I couldn’t be more excited.
> 
> For iPhone I really have it by model from the June quarter and as I had mentioned before, the highest percentage is the 4s buyer in China over 80% of the people were buying their first iPhone.
> 
> And for a 5s in China, 50% were and so I think what that says. Those numbers are so high, the 80 that I think are great -- my gut tells me, a great percentage of 6 and 6 Plus buyers will eventually -- a great percentage of those will be new to iPhone. That's what I would predict.


. 

Some of what he says is opinion. Much of it is fact. You are free to disagree with his opinion but *you cannot deny the facts.*

I don't know if you've been to China recently, but everyone wants an iPhone whether they can afford it or not. That is the key factor to Apple's long term success. It's an aspirational product. 

Keep in mind you were making the exact same analysis over a year ago (great cheap unsubsidized Android phones, people aren't go pay twice as much for an iPhone etc. etc.). Look at the success of Apple since then - both the stock and the company.

And let's not pretend Lollipop is some amazing piece of work that works great on old devices. 



> Users of Google's latest mobile operating system, Android 5.0 Lollipop, are warning others not to immediately upgrade, after experiencing broken apps, repeated crashes, and device slowdowns.
> 
> Many are reporting early issues with calling, failing Wi-Fi connectivity and sound quality — in some cases, audio fails to work altogether.
> 
> But a more pressing issue emerged: Apps built with Adobe Air have in many cases been removed from users' Nexus devices, and cannot be reinstalled.


Finally, something crucial that you really seem unable to understand is that *Android marketshare can increase while iOS sales also increase*. Plenty of smartphone newcomers will choose Android but plenty will also choose iOS. In a growing market both platforms "win". In mature markets like the US, iOS has much greater share than than their overall global share because people are more affluent and have had time to realize iOS is their preferred platform. Over time, developing nations will also be more affluent and many of the Android users there will make the switch to iOS. iOS rentention rates are much better than Android for a reason.


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## GOB

It doesn't matter how good a phone is design or hardware wise when the operating system it runs is inherently flawed. 



> “A particularly nasty mobile malware campaign targeting Android users has hit between four million and 4.5 million Americans since January of 2013, according to an estimate by Lookout, a San Francisco mobile security company that has been tracking the malware for about two years,” Nicole Perlroth reports for The New York Times.
> 
> “Lookout first encountered the mobile malware, called NotCompatible, two years ago and has since seen increasingly sophisticated versions. Lookout said it believes, based on attempted infections of its user base of 50 million, that the total number of people who have encountered the malware in the United States exceeds four million,” Perlroth reports. “The attackers goal, researchers say, is to infect as many smartphones as possible and turn them into a so-called botnet, a network of infected devices that can be used by attackers for various malicious purposes”
> 
> “Lookout says the malware, now on its third iteration, allows infected devices to search for and communicate with other infected machines and share intelligence. Attackers also have found a way to encrypt communications between their command and control center and infected devices, which makes it more difficult to detect and decipher,” Perlroth reports. “All this malicious activity can be costly. The criminals are incurring data charges on phones that, ultimately, victims are held responsible for. As if that weren’t annoying enough, researchers say the malware causes tremendous battery drainage.”


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## GOB

Relentless. Just crossed the $700B market cap mark.


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## Toronto.gal

Happy to be an AAPL shareholder [since 09], and without an exit strategy at present time. I did have one but kept revising it, and at this point, see no need to agonize over one.


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## GOB

EPS is going to see a significant increase, certainly for this quarter and I suspect for the rest of the year as well with continued iPhone strength and a new potentially high margin product line. The buybacks have done a great job, it may now be time for management to consider a substantial dividend increase. Buybacks can resume in earnest when the stock corrects. That's what I would do, anyway. Only issue is the relative lack of domestic cash, but debt is still dirt cheap. 

Something like a 28% raise to $0.60 per share would make me very happy while still maintaining a very low payout ratio.


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## indexxx

Now close to $840 pre-split price. Wonder what will happen after the Xmas sales data comes in.


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## GOB

I think the market is going to wait in anticipation of Apple Watch sales. Although with the way they're going to account for them will not be revealing unit sales, if there is meaninful revenue and EPS growth as a result of Apple Watch it means Apple has another hit on their hands and the stock will keep trucking on, in my opinion.


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## GOB

This is why I largely ignore arguments that consider market share alone:



> Apple may only hold 42 percent of the U.S. smartphone market — and merely 12 percent of the global market — but the company is dominating when it comes to a tech treasure trove: online shopping.
> 
> This Black Friday, Apple’s iOS beat out Google’s Android smartphone operating system on a slew of shopping-related fronts, according to IBM analysis:
> 
> Average Order Value: iOS users averaged $121.86 per order compared to $98.07 for Android users, a difference [of] 24.3 percent.
> 
> Online Traffic: iOS traffic accounted for 34.2 percent of total online traffic, more than double that of Android, which drove 15 percent of all online traffic.
> 
> Online Sales: iOS sales accounted for 21.9 percent of total online sales, nearly quadruple that of Android, which drove 5.8 percent of all online sales.
> 
> Adobe reported similar findings: ”iOS users drove four times as much mobile sales revenue as Android users, 79 and 21 percent respectively.”
> 
> From a business standpoint, Android’s bigger market share doesn’t count for much compared to the deep pockets and and ready wallets of Apple devotees.
> 
> Here’s how Business Insider put it:
> 
> Android’s market share advantage means nothing because iOS is more popular when it comes to usage, as demonstrated by these shopping data points. If you’re making an app or a website, you want it to work best on iOS because that is where the most lucrative customers are. So, in practice, Apple gets the best apps and the best web experience because that’s what makes sense for companies and developers.


http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...-the-best-developers-are-sticking-with-apple/

The most valuable customers - the people who actually use their device for more than texting and Facebook - continue to stick with iOS. Apple Pay is only going to strengthen this loyalty.


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## indexxx

Don't cloud the issue with facts, GOB! :biggrin:

It just confuses people.


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## fatcat

(sorry for the long post but i want to clarify the point i am trying to make here)

the ipad data is not earth shattering since it clearly is the best tablet on the market from an app standpoint if not from a build and quality standpoint ... 

samsung makes tablets that are just as good in terms of build quality (even better in my opinion) but the quality of tablet apps on android is *sub-par* (this is not the case with phone apps where android offers plenty of high quality apps) which is why i bought an ipad

ipads account for about 17-18% of apples revenue and this is a market that is shrinking and will continue to shrink as people buy bigger phones and ditch their tablets (i know i am not alone in suffering device fatigue and this will only get worse)

the iphone however accounts for 55% of apple's revenue and i believe even more to its bottom line profit (close to 60+% though i cannot find the numbers)

the question i am asking regards the future of the iphone, so let me try to reboot the conversation and ask everyone to take a deep breath before answering: what will be the impact on apple if we see (as i think we will) a move toward a) phone commoditization (mostly, because i think there will be a market for very expensive, super-premium phones and apple will play well in that space) and b) a move away from contracts and toward outright purchase of phones or non-subsidized phones as we see in india ... this is my question

here is an article ( http://fortune.com/2014/08/08/what-would-a-cheap-iphone-do-for-apples-bottom-line/ ) that questions how well apple can do selling $200-300 phones, not well in terms of numbers and profit but more important, cheaper phones creates a serious branding problem for apple ...

we now see very high quality phones sold for more and more affordable prices, as a few examples (leaving out the exploding chinese market, lets remember that the chinese build the iphone and are quite capable of selling great phones on their own as the one-plus demonstrates) the one plus at $299, motorola is selling their moto-x for $359 tomorrow, the moto-g is available for $179 in the usa i think, sony sells some very good phones for excellent off-contract prices

even if these are sale prices and even if the one-plus is basically a break even phone, these to me are proof-of-concept phones, that is, phones are getting very good, very quickly for less and less money .. i see no reason this won't continue and i believe this will present a real challenge for apple at some point in the not-too-distant future

i will turn out to be wrong if commoditization doesn't really occur or if somehow, against all the bad press and anger they get, carriers are able to keep people on contracts

please note, this is the main point i have been trying to make here, i am not saying that apple isn't at present a good investment or a powerhouse of a company as 700B market share demonstrates (though we have seen how quickly market-share can evaporate)

if phones begin to look like operating systems and we see convergence of features, ultra high quality screens, high-speeds, fortified glass and strong cases (all of which we are seeing in abundance form both apple and android) then phones will begin to blur, they will begin to become interchangeable to a degree and it will be hard for apple to compete on price (without compromising their brand, this is a critical point)

again, i think they will do well and will own the ultra high end market, to the degree that one persists

i do not think that apple pay nor the apple watch will represent any kind of category killer or bottom line revenue for apple, they are both niche products at best ... i could be wrong, but i cannot for the life of me see the average consumer shell out $500 (or whatever) for a watch that can only work when its 2 feet away from an iphone and that must be charged every single day, talk about device fatigue, this makes zero sense to me

if the apple-watch can ever function independently of an iphone then perhaps we have a new category killer


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## Just a Guy

Would you agree that the personal computer is a commodity item these days, and has been so for a long time?

There is one company however that, despite the commoditization of the industry, continues to, not only charge a premium, but also increase their market share.

That same company has defied the commoditization of many of its industries. 

its not a fluke, it's part of the company's culture.


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## GOB

JAG, I've mentioned that point dozens of times here yet it continues to be ignored. Hope you have better luck than I do.

TVs are apparently more analogous to smartphones and tablets than PCs are.


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## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Would you agree that the personal computer is a commodity item these days, and has been so for a long time?
> 
> There is one company however that, despite the commoditization of the industry, continues to, not only charge a premium, but also increase their market share.
> 
> That same company has defied the commoditization of many of its industries.
> 
> its not a fluke, it's part of the company's culture.


no, i wouldn't agree ... the computer has not yet been commoditized according to the way i understand it

the phone and the computer are at different stages of development

the computer screen is not yet close to being retina (at an affordable price) the eye perceives difference, virtually every phone will top out eventually (soon) at about 400-500 ppi ... the human eye cannot tell the difference ... one phone will look exactly like another for the purpose of the average consumer

the computer speed is still widely variable and is still to slow ... soon the processors in phones will be so fast that once again, one phones speed will closely resemble another, boot times on all the leading premium phones are very, very close .... this is commoditization

the computer form factor still varies widely, though we are closing in around 21-28 or so screen size for desktops and 12-15 for laptops but a wide variety still exists in preferred form factor

in the phone we are closing in on around 5-6 inches, the average hand can't hold a case much bigger and we know that about 4 inches is the smaller end of screen sizes

these are facts dictated by our physiology

when a phone boots in 2 seconds (or whatever) and has a screen with no discernible pixels and is about 5.2 inches in size (or whatever) we have reached the functional end of the design process

you can make all kinds of tweaks but you have essentially, a commodity, a device which has near universal design principles

when you have 2 phones which have met universal design principles (to coin an unweildy phrase) and are largely judged "good enough" by the consumer then where you go next to make a purchase decision is price

none of this is presently true with computers, we are still working things out

phones are more important to more people than pc's which is why this is happening so fast (and indeed, the importance and the intimacy that phones offer for some people is enough to keep apple in business at the premium end for some time ... i dont think this will be the case though ... if you can get a really good phone for $250 and all data is backed to the cloud and is instantly accessible, i think phones that are considered disposable is just as likely ... along the lines of the cheap chromebook model which is hurting windows)

as i have said many times, if apple creates a watch that can make phone calls with good battery life, then all bets are off and we have a whole new category ... the form factor will have been reinvented once again

but this apple doesnt appear to be the same apple with same innovative ideas as under steve jobs, the developments under cook have been mostly polishing and largely incremental


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## GOB

Really? PCs are only second in important since the dawn of the modern-day smartphone. That still leaves well over 20 years of development where the PC was of utmost importance. Funny how you are worried about the iPhone being commoditized soon while they are about to increase sales 20% while increasing ASP, when you admit that PCs have yet to be commoditized after 30 years. 

And if you think PCs still have room to improve, so do TVs, yet you relentlessly argue they are commoditized. TVs have gone from color to 720p to 1080p to plasma to LED to smart to 4k to curved. It's still going, as the latest developments are expensive. So your argument falls flat on its face. Nobody can sell a TV with decent margins because consumers see no value in it. Rest assured that if Apple were to enter the space they would be able to sell TVs at a higher margin than their competitors. 

Apple is a brand that consumers see value in, both real and perceived. The iPhone will always be more sought after than any other phone.

By the way, just saw an AT&T ad while watching the football game. Advertising their Next program offering an iPhone 6 for $0 down. Subsidies are stronger than ever, and AT&T loves it.


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## kcowan

I think all the publicity on hacking of credit cards is going to make Apple Pay more attractive. After getting your CC hacked a few times, you might just prefer to keep them away from the retailers that are letting them get hacked. I would see the banks supporting the initiative to lower their costs of fraud.


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## kcowan

GOB said:


> The most valuable customers - the people who actually use their device for more than texting and Facebook - continue to stick with iOS. Apple Pay is only going to strengthen this loyalty.


DWs iPad/iPhone are used for books and music purchases. I read the books on Kobo and sometimes listen to the iTunes music on my laptop. I use my Samsung Android phone primarily to make calls.


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## GOB

Privacy and security are the next big things, and the competition is not even in the same league as Apple is in these areas. Both on the hardware and software side.

Not saying that Apple is perfect - they can't get complacent. But I wouldn't dream of using an Android device as freely as I use my iOS devices. iOS was built from the ground up with security at the forefront. Android was not, as admitted to by their own developers.

So while there may be some Android phones that are as nice and powerful as iPhones, they can only pretend to offer the same levels of security and privacy.


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## Just a Guy

Privacy and security in this day and age?

People post private information all over the Internet willingly...want to know someone's address, phone number, if they're at home, what their kids look like, where they went to school, mothers maiden name, etc? Check facebook first...or Twitter, or their blog or just ask them to fill out an online form to see the latest minions video...

Apple hasn't found a solution to stupidity yet...


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## jaybee

Just a Guy said:


> Privacy and security in this day and age?
> 
> People post private information all over the Internet willingly...want to know someone's address, phone number, if they're at home, what their kids look like, where they went to school, mothers maiden name, etc? Check facebook first...or Twitter, or their blog or just ask them to fill out an online form to see the latest minions video...
> 
> Apple hasn't found a solution to stupidity yet...


People can be stupid all they want by posting their information all over the internet. And besides security and privacy are different things.

I want my data secure, and Apple seems to be the leader of the top players at this point.


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## Just a Guy

You can never be sure about security...I know guys who used to work for Xerox and apple in the 80's. They were fairly high up guys and they told me how places like the NSA and other groups had access to their facilities and software. None of that was public ally known...


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## GOB

Yes, a lot of people don't care but at the same time a lot of people do. The Facebook crowd isn't the entire population, and I'd argue that the iPhone demographic (higher income, higher education, higher spending) are on average more concerned about security than others. I do banking, shopping and trading on my iPhone and wouldn't feel comfortable doing any of that on an Android, for legitimate reasons. 

Everyone with a credit card should be concerned about credit card security. Even if there is no personal liability, the hassle of cancelling changing cards is immense. The Target and Home Depot breaches have put a lot of people on edge. 

I don't know about back in the 80s, but I'm pretty sure Apple doesn't give access to anybody now. Heck, they don't have access themselves. Tim Cook has publicly stated as much and I tend to believe him, because it's become part of Apple's appeal. It's way too risky to lie about something like this, because the truth always comes out in the end and Apple's image would be decimated.


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## andrewf

FISA courts also bar executives from revealing that the government has accessed user data, hence the warrant canary Apple _used_ to include in its regulatory filings.


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## indexxx

Just for interest's sake:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap...-iphone-from-dropping-and-breaking-2014-12-02


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## Eclectic12

GOB said:


> ... I don't know about back in the 80s, but I'm pretty sure Apple doesn't give access to anybody now. Heck, they don't have access themselves.
> 
> Tim Cook has publicly stated as much and I tend to believe him, because it's become part of Apple's appeal. It's way too risky to lie about something like this, because the truth always comes out in the end and Apple's image would be decimated.


So if the US gov't shows up with a court order for the encrypted data - Apple can't hand it over? 
Sure, they may not be able to hand over the clear text version but I doubt they can stop the gov't from taking the encrypted version. Then it's a question of what computing resources the gov't can throw at it.


Cheers


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## GOB

Eclectic12 said:


> So if the US gov't shows up with a court order for the encrypted data - Apple can't hand it over?
> Sure, they may not be able to hand over the clear text version but I doubt they can stop the gov't from taking the encrypted version. Then it's a question of what computing resources the gov't can throw at it.
> 
> 
> Cheers





> Government information requests are a consequence of doing business in the digital age. We believe in being as transparent as the law allows about what information is requested from us. In addition, Apple has never worked with any government agency from any country to create a “back door” in any of our products or services. We have also never allowed any government access to our servers. And we never will.
> 
> On devices running iOS 8, your personal data such as photos, messages (including attachments), email, contacts, call history, iTunes content, notes, and reminders is placed under the protection of your passcode. Unlike our competitors, Apple cannot bypass your passcode and therefore cannot access this data. So it's not technically feasible for us to respond to government warrants for the extraction of this data from devices in their possession running iOS 8.


http://www.apple.com/privacy/government-information-requests/


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## kcowan

I would not rely on the fact that, by not providing passwords, your data is safe. A Subpoena will elicit the whole database and then government hackers will get in.


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## GOB

Not quite. Apple has never allowed access to their servers. If the government demands info on a particular individual, Apple will grant the request if made through proper legal channels, but they won't give up their servers for government hackers to play around in. The number of requests is between 0 - 250 in 2014. That's the range they are legally allowed to disclose, but my guess based on Cook's tone is that the number is much closer to zero than it is to 250. 

The way Apple protects the user is that they keep as little information as possible. Apple has no interest in retaining information other than completely anonymized data for bug fixing and R&D etc. They don't store and monetize personal information unlike Google. Data stored on an iPhone is not accessible to Apple.


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## Eclectic12

GOB said:


> ... The way Apple protects the user is that they keep as little information as possible.
> Apple has no interest in retaining information other than completely anonymized data for bug fixing and R&D etc.
> They don't store and monetize personal information unlike Google.
> 
> Data stored on an iPhone is not accessible to Apple.


Too bad they didn't think of making money off of something like dropbox ... :biggrin:


Cheers


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## GOB

Well, there is iCloud which is similar but not entirely the same as Dropbox. iCloud is meant more as a background feature to sync content between devices. I suppose any data there is attainable by law enforcement through the proper legal channels. But again, it would be an individual request. No way Apple would grant backdoor access to databases or servers.


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## GOB

Latest update from Kantar for smartphone sales share. Despite amazing devices being available on Android for half the price of an iPhone, looks like iPhone is doing just fine:










Keep in mind this is three month data ending in October - that means iPhone 6/6+ was only selling for about 6 weeks at maximum, and during a time where there were severe supply constraints, likely more so than for the 5s last year. As I mentioned previously, I expect this trend to continue into next quarter. 

The one thing that sticks out like a sore thumb is the huge drop in Japan. The drop can be explained by the fact that NTT Docomo came online offering the iPhone last year, which was a huge boost to sales. 48% is still an amazing number, and more realistic going forward. I think over time a 30-45% share is to be expected for a mature profitable market.

Like any survey, these results should not be taken as gospel, but they do point to some meaningful trends.


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## andrewf

GOB said:


> Not quite. Apple has never allowed access to their servers.


FISA courts can prohibit Apple from revealing that they had, so we can't know this.


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## fatcat

andrewf said:


> FISA courts can prohibit Apple from revealing that they had, so we can't know this.


precisely ... the law prohibiting disclosure when presented with a national security letter, despite recent court rulings, still stands, and you can be prevented from disclosure under penalty of law ... any notion that somehow we can trust any of the mega-corporations (who are bigger than some nation-states) is a pipe dream

also, apple was indeed opening its servers to the nsa under the prism program a few years ago

the fact that apple might be offering the tightest security and has less data than google on the average person is no reason for complacency or trust in apple ... apple does what is good for apple, not their users and would turn on a dime if there was money to be made

nevertheless, unlike google who has a much more comprehensive picture of my life, apple is relatively more trustworthy even if only because they don't have rich data sets


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## GOB

andrewf said:


> FISA courts can prohibit Apple from revealing that they had, so we can't know this.












Call me naïve, but I trust Apple enough that if they did do this, they wouldn't claim that they didn't in such an overt way. Way too much risk and liability and an instant and severe tarnishing of their reputation if they were to get caught in this kind of lie. The statement above on their web page is very clear as is the accompanying info if one were to bother to read it. Various interviews from Tim Cook also back it up. 

fatcat...sorry buddy, but I'll take Apple's word over some random guy on the internet, even if he does underline his statement for emphasis. Unless, of course, you have some real proof to offer. 



> Apple’s Commitment to Customer Privacy
> 
> June 16, 2013
> 
> Two weeks ago, when technology companies were accused of indiscriminately sharing customer data with government agencies, Apple issued a clear response: We first heard of the government’s “Prism” program when news organizations asked us about it on June 6. We do not provide any government agency with direct access to our servers, and any government agency requesting customer content must get a court order.
> 
> Like several other companies, we have asked the U.S. government for permission to report how many requests we receive related to national security and how we handle them. We have been authorized to share some of that data, and we are providing it here in the interest of transparency.
> 
> From December 1, 2012 to May 31, 2013, Apple received between 4,000 and 5,000 requests from U.S. law enforcement for customer data. Between 9,000 and 10,000 accounts or devices were specified in those requests, which came from federal, state and local authorities and included both criminal investigations and national security matters. The most common form of request comes from police investigating robberies and other crimes, searching for missing children, trying to locate a patient with Alzheimer’s disease, or hoping to prevent a suicide.
> 
> Regardless of the circumstances, our Legal team conducts an evaluation of each request and, only if appropriate, we retrieve and deliver the narrowest possible set of information to the authorities. In fact, from time to time when we see inconsistencies or inaccuracies in a request, we will refuse to fulfill it.
> 
> Apple has always placed a priority on protecting our customers’ personal data, and we don’t collect or maintain a mountain of personal details about our customers in the first place. There are certain categories of information which we do not provide to law enforcement or any other group because we choose not to retain it.
> 
> For example, conversations which take place over iMessage and FaceTime are protected by end-to-end encryption so no one but the sender and receiver can see or read them. Apple cannot decrypt that data. Similarly, we do not store data related to customers’ location, Map searches or Siri requests in any identifiable form.
> 
> We will continue to work hard to strike the right balance between fulfilling our legal responsibilities and protecting our customers’ privacy as they expect and deserve.


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## fatcat

i will call you naive .... apple is mega-cap corporation and a cursory glance of the behaviour of this class of companies shows that they (and their lawyers) will do whatever they please

do a search for "apple" and "prism"

mike elgan has a good article (in cult of mac of all places) that talks about apples word dance regarding government information request

http://www.cultofmac.com/232958/why-is-apple-being-evasive-about-prism/

every other major tech company except squeaky clean apple is compromised by the nsa ? ... no, sorry

which is not to say that they don't now have religion, the move regarding phone encryption is very, very good, they are getting the message ... 

but lets remember that their privacy policy is not covered by anything like the force of law which in the usa is very, very weak

it is entirely a corporate decision which can be amended, rescinded or dropped on a dime

trust ? ... a 700 billion dollar organization dedicated to one thing and one thing only ... profit ... really ? ... i don't think so

owning their stock is one thing but trusting them is another


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## GOB

If that's your proof then I rest my case. That article is filled with pure conjecture. You can read into what Apple is not saying as you please but I believe what are they are saying for good reason. And what they clearly do say is that *they do not provide access to their servers.* If they in fact did do this they would simply skip over the point. 

And for the record, I believe many of the other tech companies are the same in that they do not want to hand over data. It's just that Apple has measures in place to protect the user more than others do.

Everyone is selfish and driven by self-interest - corporations and people. It doesn't mean trust cannot or should not exist. It is in Apple's self-interest to protect their user data as much as they possibly can. If you don't see this you are the naïve one wearing a tinfoil hat. I've forgotten more about Apple than you will ever know - the good and the bad, so it's not from naïvety that I place some trust in their words.

As mentioned by someone else, people still don't care enough about privacy for Apple to blatantly lie about this. The risk to reward is simply too high. They're not selling that many more iPhones as a result of their stance on privacy (yet) and the fallout would be massive if they were caught lying about this.

You make a lot of statements about a $700B company. The other thing about a $700B company that is the most watched in the world is that information gets leaked and secrets get revealed. This kind of lie, if it is a lie, will not be buried for long.


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> If that's your proof then I rest my case. That article is filled with pure conjecture. You can read into what Apple is not saying as you please but I believe what are they are saying for good reason. And what they clearly do say is that *they do not provide access to their servers.* If they in fact did do this they would simply skip over the point.
> 
> And for the record, I believe many of the other tech companies are the same in that they do not want to hand over data. It's just that Apple has measures in place to protect the user more than others do.
> 
> Everyone is selfish and driven by self-interest - corporations and people. It doesn't mean trust cannot or should not exist. It is in Apple's self-interest to protect their user data as much as they possibly can. If you don't see this you are the naïve one wearing a tinfoil hat. I've forgotten more about Apple than you will ever know - the good and the bad, so it's not from naïvety that I place some trust in their words.
> 
> As mentioned by someone else, people still don't care enough about privacy for Apple to blatantly lie about this. The risk to reward is simply too high. They're not selling that many more iPhones as a result of their stance on privacy (yet) and the fallout would be massive if they were caught lying about this.
> 
> You make a lot of statements about a $700B company. The other thing about a $700B company that is the most watched in the world is that information gets leaked and secrets get revealed. This kind of lie, if it is a lie, will not be buried for long.


fair enough, i must say, you are an earnest young man, from which i should probably draw inspiration 

whereas i am old, bitter and suspicious having been burned and watch others be burned by large corporations and their warehouses full of lawyers uncountable times over the years ... 

nevertheless, we will sally forth in the hope that apple will wave the flag of user privacy high and proudly

though as one who formerly cared deeply and rabidly about privacy, i am now in the camp that it is dead, dead, dead ... unless you live in the woods and hunt rabbits, privacy (whatever that might mean anymore) is an artifact of the analog world i am afraid


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## GOB

Privacy is certainly a very complex issue in this day and age, and it's never going to be perfect. Stuff like biometrics and anonymized data will help a great deal, though.


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## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Call me naïve, but I trust Apple enough that if they did do this, they wouldn't claim that they didn't in such an overt way.


They clearly state they do provide data as required under the law of the jurisdictions they operate in.
https://www.apple.com/privacy/docs/government-information-requests-20131105.pdf

https://www.google.com/transparencyreport/userdatarequests/

If Apple had data more interesting than nude celebrity selfies, I'm sure law enforcement would be all over it. As it is Google has more interesting usage.

I do believe the Opaque disclosure on US data from Apple is due to government requirements.


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## GOB

Clearly you haven't bothered to read the links I provided or understand what I've been saying. I never said they dont comply with government data requests, but there is a difference between providing information on an individual and providing wholesale access to the entire database/server.


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## kcowan

> The first ten iOS apps to stem from Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) alliance with IBM are now "available to enterprise customers in banking, retail, insurance, financial services, telecommunications and for governments and airlines."
> 
> Initial clients for the products, known as IBM MobileFirst for iOS, include Citi, Air Canada, and Sprint.
> As promised when the partnership was first announced, the apps feature embedded analytics, and are integrated with IBM cloud services built specifically for them.
> 
> Initial apps include Advise & Grow (for bankers with small business clients), Retention (for insurance agents), Sales Assist (for retail workers), and Case Advise (for government caseworkers). They'll be offered by IBM's massive services arm.
> 
> The solutions bolster Apple's growing enterprise sales push, as the company tries to win over traditionally wary CIOs, fend off Google and Samsung's enterprise efforts, and maintain an outsized share of corporate smartphone/tablet activations. Reuters reported in November Apple is also working with various startups to bring enterprise iOS apps to market.


Source


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## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Clearly you haven't bothered to read the links I provided or understand what I've been saying. I never said they dont comply with government data requests, but there is a difference between providing information on an individual and providing wholesale access to the entire database/server.


Their statement suggests that they keep your information private, even if there is a government information request. Which is quite simply not true.
If they receive a proper and legal request, they provide the information, it's that simple. Sure they might fight it, and even defeat some number of requests, but the private data is still turned over (as it should be).

Apple admits (in their own data) they only object to about 2/3rds of requests, and they didn't even bother objecting to any of the requests from the Canadian Government.

Really the whole issue is a red herring anyway, if you give or let someone have access to your data, you should assume the government can get it, and interested individuals will also get it.


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## GOB

But that's not what their statement says. They are saying they don't provide backdoors or server access, but they do comply with individual information requests, the total of which is extremely low. They will keep your information as private as legally possible, but they must legally comply to requests. And they keep as little information as possible and develop methods to make things inaccessible to anyone but the user. I'm no lawyer but I doubt there will be a case where wholesale server access will be legally required. If it is, the U.S. will be even more of a police state than it already is, and I don't think the general public will stand for it. 

I do agree it's a red herring that will have no effect for any law-abiding citizen. My comments on privacy are more to do with keeping health and payment information secure from theives, which is a far more critical issue that will affect all of us.


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## Just a Guy

Been reading a book on Snowden, according to him, the NAS had access to Apple's servers...and there's been no real indication of change. Of course, they had access to nearly everything according to Snowden.


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## indexxx

Nice rebound of late. Wanted to post this article on Aapl joining the Dow, just out of interest's sake.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-2015-be-apples-blue-chip-debut-2014-12-15


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## indexxx

Article:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-granted-patent-gopro-cameras-184357041.html

Website:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-granted-patent-gopro-cameras-184357041.html

I know that every company takes out patents that don't come out to anything in the end- but it's interesting to keep up on ideas coming out.


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## GOB

After a couple of months in the doldrums, AAPL is making a move back up pre-earnings. Earnings are reported on Tuesday after hours. 

iPhone 6/6 Plus has been an absolutely massive success, with supply/demand balance being reached more than three months after launch. 

Some sales share updates:









There may be some good Android devices out there, but people still want iPhones. The year over year increase is huge, as I expected and as was obvious from the pent up demand for larger screened iPhones. The only major outlier is Japan, which dropped significantly but can be explained by the fact that the iPhone launched on DoCoMo last year (Japan's biggest carrier). 

Earnings should be outstanding. Some people are forecasting 70+ million iPhones which would be a 37% increase over last year - amazing. Whatever the number is it will be strong growth and a massive amount of money made. However, I'm not expecting the stock to shoot up immediately, as analyst expectations are sky high as well. I'll be playing it cautious, but AAPL is a screaming buy long term.


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## Siciliano698

GOB what do you think about 4q earnings today? Worth picking up AAPL now ? or will the earnings dissapoint, Seems all blue chip stocks down south are reporting bad 4th quarter numbers. Microsoft is down a few bucks...


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## GOB

Whether it's a beat or disappointment, I've given up predicting how the stock will react in the short term. What I can say with confidence is that the company is stronger than ever and the current price represents excellent value, especially in comparison with peers. 

iPhone sales are going to be through the roof, which will bring up revenue, margins and net income. Macs sales should also be strong with new 5k iMac. iPad sales could be weak and may drag the numbers down a bit. Strong USD is also going to be a drag as we have seen with pretty much every company that has reported. Other than the forex issue I would hesitate to compare Apple to other stocks. They are down for their own reasons while Apple is growing more than they have in years and also trades at a better multiple than most, especially when discounting their cash. 

All in all, it's going to be a massive quarter - far and away Apple's best ever. Next quarter guidance should also be strong, as iPhone 6/6 Plus has only recently achieved supply/demand balance and Chinese New Year is coming up. If the Apple Watch is launched in time it will add a bit to the current quarter, if not it will be a huge boost to Q3. Buybacks will also continue and a dividend increase is due to be announced in April.


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## indexxx

Article

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap...earnings-volatility-2015-01-27?dist=countdown


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## GOB

Apple just annihilated all estimates. 47% earnings increase, 74.4 million iPhones....

More later. This is massive.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Thank you, Apple Gods...


----------



## GOB

Largest quarterly profit in history...

The stock isn't even up that much after the drop today...plenty of upside remaining folks. Feel free to join the party.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Been "enjoying the party" for many years. I may just celebrate by going out to buy a Mac Pro or iMac. I need a new PC.


----------



## SkyFall

Wow!


----------



## Siciliano698

good call GOB!


----------



## indexxx

I've said it before and I'll say it again (and again...) GO APPLE!!


----------



## Wormiez

Great call on this. Apple had all the signs on the wall to blow this quarter out..

Sold of all of my TD and got in Apple right before the market closed.. Going to be a fantastic opening tomorrow!


----------



## GOB

As I usually do after earnings, I'll gather up some information followed up by my thoughts. Hope some of you get some use of it. 

*Results*











Overall
- $74.6B revenue (+30%)
- $18B profit (+38%) (the highest ever quarterly profit for a public company)
- $3.06 EPS (+48%)
- $33.7B cashflow from operations
- 39.9% gross margins 
- Revenue up 20% in developed nations, 58% in emerging nations, 70% in greater China
- Forex headwinds had a significant impact (4% on revenue)
- $178 billion in total cash (+$22.7B)
- $5B to repurchase 46 million shares
- $103B of $130B of shareholder return program completed, update coming in April

iPhone
- Sales up 44% in US, 97% in BRIC, 100% in China, Brazil and Singapore
- ASP of $687 (+$50)
- 97% customer satisfaction
- 53% of North American smartphone web traffic

Mac
- 14% growth amid a PC market that declined 3%

iPad
- 98% customer satisfaction
- 70% of North American tablet web traffic and 82% of e-commerce tablet transactions

Services
- $4.8 billion (+9%)

- $178 billion in cash (+$22.7B)
- $5B to repurchase 46 million shares
- $103B of $130B completed

Apple Watch
-Shipping in April

Guidance

- $52-55B revenue (+14-20%)
- 38.5 - 39.5% gross margin 
- Does not include Apple Watch
- FX impact is 5% on revenues

*My thoughts*

All in all, the numbers pretty much speak for themselves. iPhones are growing with increasing margins, Macs are growing with increasing margins. iPads are slowing down, but more due to that fact that the replacement cycle is slow rather than people using competing devices. Apple knows the stock is undervalued and is ready to step in if or when the market irrationally takes the stock down, increasing the long term value to shareholders. Apple Watch is only going to add to these ridiculous numbers. 

I hope this puts to bed the ridiculous notion that Android is eating Apple's lunch, and that people are going to switch to cheap Android phones. This past quarter's iPhone sales represented the largest number of new smartphone buyers as well as the largest number of Android switchers. People who have iPhones and want iPhones are generally not going to step to Xiaomis, Samsung, HTCs and OnePlus Ones. Android OEMs compete far more amongst themselves than they do with Apple, and it has never been clearer than right now. If you want more proof that Apple is playing the long game irrespective of what Android is doing, please take a look at this chart and draw some logical conclusions:










Global mobile phone sales are increasing, and Apple's share of global mobile phone sales is increasing. So is the iPhone doomed, or is there more growth ahead?

The stock is now trading at a trailing P/E of under 15, a forward P/E of much less. Ex-cash P/E is under 12. Absolutely absurd valuation for a company that has proven that it can still grow, and at mind-boggling rates. Will this kind of growth last forever? No. But it will last for a few quarters and I wouldn't be surprised to see growth in the teens for a few years going forward. The company is growing on both the top and bottom lines, and combined with the largest shareholder return program in history and I believe there is a ton of upside with very little downside. There is no question that AAPL will outpace the market for at least the next little while. This is without even considering the Apple Watch and what it will add to the mix, as well as whatever else Apple has in store. 

Strong Buy.


----------



## SpIcEz

Though I agree, they had a great quarter and the metrics are pretty much all positive, I find your information post annoying.

For the simple fact that under Iphone, you show the sales growth. And under Ipad... you just skipped over it, since its declining.

For informed decisions, people need all the information. Not to be lied to by omission.

This is why people are so annoyed by your exuberance for Apple. Not because you are wrong, because you have rose colored glasses and its all you show to others.

In any case, good for Apple and those holding Apple, it was definitely a knock out quarter for them.


----------



## GOB

SpIcEz said:


> Though I agree, they had a great quarter and the metrics are pretty much all positive, I find your information post annoying.
> 
> For the simple fact that under Iphone, you show the sales growth. And under Ipad... you just skipped over it, since its declining.
> 
> For informed decisions, people need all the information. Not to be lied to by omission.
> 
> This is why people are so annoyed by your exuberance for Apple. Not because you are wrong, because you have rose colored glasses and its all you show to others.
> 
> In any case, good for Apple and those holding Apple, it was definitely a knock out quarter for them.


I'm sorry for the incomplete information. The iPad unit decline is in the very first graphic on my post. I didn't skip over it - I even mentioned it again and explained why I'm not too concerned. I don't try to hide information. I listed the iPhone growth by region because it was mentioned in the conference call. There was no similar mention of the iPad growth by region, so I don't have the data. If I really wanted to milk things, I would have mentioned that iPad channel fill was more than a million units higher last year, so the decline on a sell-through basis was actually less than it appears. 

I focus more on the iPhone because the largest point of discussion and disagreement. Most people agree the iPad is great and the best tablet option, but so many worry about iPhone losing to Android. I've heard countless times that iPhones are only successful in wealthy, developed markets, so the numbers I listed are important in countering that argument. 

My "rose coloured glasses" have worked out quite well for me. I quite like them. Although I am an obvious bull and think AAPL is a strong buy, I have not agreed with everything they have done in the past and you will find evidence of that in my previous posts.

As far as informed decisions go, I believe I have been providing more opportunity than anyone else does to make an informed decision on AAPL. Yourself included. I have provided more hard data and fought more opinions with facts than anybody else has in this or any other thread. 

I'm sure some people may be annoyed, and some people disagree. But I've had many people thank me, both publicly and privately for my contributions to this thread. That's good enough for me. I cannot please everyone.


----------



## indexxx

^ +1 gob


----------



## MrMatt

I think there was a lot of pent up demand for the big iPhone.

I think phones are getting to good enough, more and more people don't see any reason to upgrade. I have an iPad Retina display (when they were first released), I see no reason to upgrade it, and that's the problem the phone makers will make.
I actually bought a Nexus 5 (1 year after release date) in the fall as my first choice, didn't see the point for the other newer devices, and I'm a power user.

The upgrade cycle in phones is going to drop off fast, I think much faster than it did in computers.

That being said, most people will want one, and I can't imagine Apple not making good money going forward.


----------



## Siciliano698

Good work GOB keep those reports coming much appreciated.... :biggrin:


----------



## kcowan

We also bought the retina iPad when it was new and do not plan to upgrade. We also bought a 4S to share the power plug. No plans to upgrade Yet.


----------



## brad

kcowan said:


> We also bought the retina iPad when it was new and do not plan to upgrade.


I'm still using the iPad 2 and see no need to upgrade, even though my girlfriend has a newer iPad Air -- it's lighter but doesn't seem better in any other respect and my iPad 2 runs iOS 8 just fine. I think once Apple starts coming out with new iOS versions that don't work with older iPads you'll start to see more people upgrading, but also more people complaining that they have to upgrade.

I think some of the slowdown may also do with people bumping up against the limitations of tablets in general, especially for doing work as opposed to consuming content.

What I don't understand is why Apple's price is responding positively so far to yesterday's news, whereas in recent years the stock dropped after earnings reports despite the fact that each earnings report showed record-breaking sales and revenues just like this one did. Is it simply because sales and revenue in yesterday's report were beyond what analysts expected?


----------



## GOB

MrMatt said:


> I think there was a lot of pent up demand for the big iPhone.
> 
> I think phones are getting to good enough, more and more people don't see any reason to upgrade. I have an iPad Retina display (when they were first released), I see no reason to upgrade it, and that's the problem the phone makers will make.
> I actually bought a Nexus 5 (1 year after release date) in the fall as my first choice, didn't see the point for the other newer devices, and I'm a power user.
> 
> The upgrade cycle in phones is going to drop off fast, I think much faster than it did in computers.
> 
> That being said, most people will want one, and I can't imagine Apple not making good money going forward.


I somewhat agree with this - the upgrade cycle may start to drop and I'm noticing several friends still hanging on their 4S. The flip side of this is that once you have built up a large enough user base, you don't need half of them to upgrade every year. If you have a billion iPhone users, you'd still be selling 250 million iPhones a year even on a 4 year upgrade cycle, which is still a long way from happening. There are still tons of people upgrading every year or every two years. The two year upgrade cycle is still being pushed heavily by carriers.


----------



## GOB

brad said:


> I'm still using the iPad 2 and see no need to upgrade, even though my girlfriend has a newer iPad Air -- it's lighter but doesn't seem better in any other respect and my iPad 2 runs iOS 8 just fine. I think once Apple starts coming out with new iOS versions that don't work with older iPads you'll start to see more people upgrading, but also more people complaining that they have to upgrade.
> 
> I think some of the slowdown may also do with people bumping up against the limitations of tablets in general, especially for doing work as opposed to consuming content.
> 
> What I don't understand is why Apple's price is responding positively so far to yesterday's news, whereas in recent years the stock dropped after earnings reports despite the fact that each earnings report showed record-breaking sales and revenues just like this one did. Is it simply because sales and revenue in yesterday's report were beyond what analysts expected?


Brad, there have been strong earnings but it's been a long time since earnings were this shocking. And keep in mind the strong USD hit revenues by 4%. I had no idea going in, but knowing the numbers now I would be shocked to see the stock drop. The last three strong earnings have also seen the stock rally. A company growing 20-40% with so much cash and power should not have a P/E in the low teens.


----------



## Toronto.gal

In addition, investors also react to the company's guidance for the following quarter [already posted upthread], which may not look 'amazing', but 'very good', when taking into account it's the quarter that follows the spending season.

*Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2015 second quarter:*

- revenue between $52 billion and $55 billion
- gross margin between 38.5 percent and 39.5 percent
- operating expenses between $5.4 billion and $5.5 billion
- other income/(expense) of $350 million
- tax rate of 26.3 percent


----------



## Toronto.gal

Wormiez said:


> Apple had *all the signs on the wall to blow this quarter out*..Sold of all of my TD and *got in Apple right before the market closed*.. Going to be a fantastic opening tomorrow!


These type of moves, buying just before earnings release, don't always work as you would expect, even when results are good, but you already knew this, right?


----------



## GOB

Just a note that FQ2 (Apr-Jun) will have the Apple Watch launch and at least two month of sales (in typical Apple fashion I expect "April" means "late April"). It remains to be seen what the demand is or how many Apple can initially supply, but I expect a big YoY increase in FQ2 (a traditionally weaker quarter for Apple) due to continued iPhone growth and brand new Apple Watch revenue and profits. The iPad decline may also stabilize, but that's just a guess. 

I think this is going to be a huge year.


----------



## andrewf

All I've been hearing is that Apple is not happy with the battery life of the watch (rumoured to be well under a day), perhaps in part because they opted for more demanding components than the current crop of Android Wear and Tizen devices. I have a feeling that the technology is still not there yet for smart watches. It may be another year or two until display and processor technology achieves good enough power consumption to performance levels for get 1-2 day battery life. I'm curious to see consumer reaction to Apple's smartwatch user experience.


----------



## GOB

Tim Cook has already gone on record saying you'll need to charge it every night. It's certainly not ideal, as I'd like to be able to use it for sleep tracking as well. But if it lasts the whole day, I and many others will get enough utility out of it to make it a worthwhile purchase, I think. 

1st gen products always have significant restrictions. The media will take it to task while millions of people buy it, as per usual. Sales will really start to take off in the year or two.


----------



## oob

Anyone unloading here? Thinking of reducing half my stake. I get that the Company's flush with cash and keeps on generating, I worry that there's not much left they can do/add to move the needle and grow at this size.
Only thing holding me back is my cost base is $66/share, and it's in a taxable account...


----------



## GOB

Your worries could have been the same for the past several years. Even with nothing else, there are still a massive number of people yet to buy the latest iPhones. More than 80% of the iPhone user base has not upgraded, and China is growing close to triple digits. That's a lot of people. 

There is something that can move the needle - Apple Watch. Apple Pay will increase the stickiness of the iOS ecosystem. Something to do with TV/content is also sure to come. 

Valuation is absurdly low. What else would you put your money into that offers a better risk/reward profile?


----------



## 1980z28

Not Samsung


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> Valuation is absurdly low. *What else would you put your money into that offers a better risk/reward profile?*


Defensive stocks? AAPL isn't the only stock on the planet.

I'm holding, but when I decide to sell, it will be to balance. I'm currently $25 away from a previous exit strategy that I have since adjusted upwards.


----------



## kcowan

oob said:


> Only thing holding me back is my cost base is $66/share, and it's in a taxable account...


What type of investor are you?


----------



## oob

kcowan said:


> What type of investor are you?


Not sure what you mean by type. 
Relatively long-term - this has been a 2-3 year hold for me. 
Biased towards value plays.
At a high marginal tax rate right now.


----------



## GOB

Toronto.gal said:


> Defensive stocks? AAPL isn't the only stock on the planet.
> 
> I'm holding, but when I decide to sell, it will be to balance. I'm currently $25 away from a previous exit strategy that I have since adjusted upwards.


No issue with taking some off the table to balance, but I stand by my position that there are very few plays that offer the risk/reward profile that AAPL does at these prices. By the language in his post, oob was more worried about fundamentals than rebalancing. I don't think it should be a concern at current growth rates and valuation and management's willingness to support to stock.

AAPL is still very much a value play, even with making very conservative assumptions going forward.


----------



## indexxx

Article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-closes-in-on-samsung-in-smartphone-race-2015-01-29


----------



## Pluto

oob said:


> Anyone unloading here? Thinking of reducing half my stake. I get that the Company's flush with cash and keeps on generating, I worry that there's not much left they can do/add to move the needle and grow at this size.
> Only thing holding me back is my cost base is $66/share, and it's in a taxable account...


Cutting back isn't necessarily a bad idea. Personal decision. this is a very powerful move right now, and it looks like it will go into the 120's. There is no reason why it shouldn't breakout above its previous high of 119. maybe to 125. At that level I think the p/e will be around 17, and that seems to be its top end these days for aapl. There is no reason why it shouldn't breakout above its previous high of 119. I guess my point is, if you sell some, you can probably get a few dollars more next week. For myself, I'm planning to sell when it looks like this move is topping out to lock in some profit. I can always buy it back after it consolidates. (The reason I'm selling is the market looks sick to me. It feels like Jan 2008. Too many problems weighing on the market. And except for aapl, and maybe a handful of others, it doesn't seem like the institutions are buying with conviction. When they have no conviction, there is no wind in my sails.)


----------



## GOB

A great article for those interested:

http://stratechery.com/2015/bad-assumptions/


----------



## GOB

As I predicted, the iPhone 6 is having profound impacts on market share. Not the most important metric to me, but it does weaken the bear case even further. 

More iPhones were sold in the US last quarter than all Android phones put together. High end, low end and everything in between. iPhones supply could not even meet demand, so this may still be the case.

More all time highs today


----------



## gibor365

Credit Suisse has boosted its price target on Apple (AAPL) to $140, suggesting a 17% upside. The firm has also raised estimates on the company as it is seeing continued demand for iPhones. AAPL has a dividend yield of 1.57%


----------



## Jon_Snow

I'm am currently doing my part for the stock - shopping for an iMac or MacPro. Current Windows PC (7 years old) isn't up to the task of editing 4K GoPro videos.


----------



## Just a Guy

Check out the refurbished store on apple.ca. Best prices on new macs.


----------



## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> Credit Suisse has boosted its price target on Apple (AAPL) to *$140*, suggesting a 17% upside. The firm has also raised estimates on the company as it is seeing continued demand for iPhones. AAPL has a dividend yield of 1.57%


That was the price some were calling back in 2013 [$1K], so it's taken just 2 more years to get there almost.

Back then, there were even some predicting much higher, as in $250 in today's terms. In that case, forget the dividend!


----------



## andrewf

The 5K iMac with the 4790K i7 processor apparently has some thermal throttling issues. I guess not all that surprising when you put a desktop CPU intended to be overclocked on the back of a monitor. It's a bit misleading to sell a device with that processor when you can't really get the compute performance out of it.

If you want to do video editing, please don't get an AIO.


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> The 5K iMac with the 4790K i7 processor apparently has some thermal throttling issues. I guess not all that surprising when you put a desktop CPU intended to be overclocked on the back of a monitor. It's a bit misleading to sell a device with that processor when you can't really get the compute performance out of it.
> 
> If you want to do video editing, please don't get an AIO.


agree ... mac pro would be a better choice


----------



## brad

Plenty of professional video editors use iMacs though; my company has a video studio and they do some of their editing work on iMacs. There's a recent review comparing iMac versus Mac Pro at http://videoandfilmmaker.com/wp/index.php/news/imac-vs-macpro-great-debate/ although this was before the i7-configurable machine was released. The point is you don't need a machine like that to do professional video editing; the previous year's model did just fine. Clearly the Mac Pro is the better choice if you're doing 4K or larger, but the iMac is certainly capable of editing video.

http://videoandfilmmaker.com/wp/index.php/news/imac-vs-macpro-great-debate/

"Larry Jordan (filmmaker and Adobe trainer extraordinaire) recently purchased a new iMac and was very impressed with the way it handled everything he threw at it. His initial impressions were:

“This thing is fast! It loads fast. It runs smoothly. It renders quickly. Export is faster than real-time”. He then went on to say “This proves a point I’ve been making in my classes and webinars recently: virtually every Mac shipping today is fast enough to edit video; even 2K or 4K images. The real test is the graphics processing unit (GPU) and the speed of your storage system."


----------



## GOB

Glad to hear positive reviews about Photos. iPhoto is a bit of a bloated mess. 

It was interesting going back and reading posts from a few months ago. Most of my major predictions played out - new all time highs, massive iPhone 6 success reversing market share trends, and Apple and Xiaomi killing Samsung from both sides. The only thing I got wrong was believing the iPhone 6 would ship with a sapphire screen. I know I may just be seen by many here as a pumper but I do have a solid understanding of this company and the market they play in. 

As an investment play, it's much easier to look at Apple on quarterly and yearly bases rather than worry about things like commoditization that may or may not happen a decade into the future (I've said it before and I'll say it again - Macs are growing in the double digits over 30 years later). There's been a whole lot of debate here about stuff that doesn't hugely impact AAPL's share price. It's all about earnings - iPhones sold, revenue, EPS, margins, growth, etc. Any warning signs will show up in the financials, as they did in some respects in 2012. Yes, the market is forward looking, but the market doesn't have a clue about what's going to happen ten years from now. They may overreact on a piece of news, but then they'll be brought back in line by earnings. If you can be confident about earnings growth in 2015 and 2016 (I am), then you can be confident AAPL is a good investment.


----------



## andrewf

brad said:


> Plenty of professional video editors use iMacs though; my company has a video studio and they do some of their editing work on iMacs. There's a recent review comparing iMac versus Mac Pro at http://videoandfilmmaker.com/wp/index.php/news/imac-vs-macpro-great-debate/ although this was before the i7-configurable machine was released. The point is you don't need a machine like that to do professional video editing; the previous year's model did just fine. Clearly the Mac Pro is the better choice if you're doing 4K or larger, but the iMac is certainly capable of editing video.
> 
> http://videoandfilmmaker.com/wp/index.php/news/imac-vs-macpro-great-debate/
> 
> "Larry Jordan (filmmaker and Adobe trainer extraordinaire) recently purchased a new iMac and was very impressed with the way it handled everything he threw at it. His initial impressions were:
> 
> “This thing is fast! It loads fast. It runs smoothly. It renders quickly. Export is faster than real-time”. He then went on to say “This proves a point I’ve been making in my classes and webinars recently: virtually every Mac shipping today is fast enough to edit video; even 2K or 4K images. The real test is the graphics processing unit (GPU) and the speed of your storage system."


I think this is fair. It is clearly capable of doing it. But putting hardware in a box that can't handle the thermal load is silly, and anyone buying the machine on the basis of the processor will not be getting the performance suggested on the tin.


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> Plenty of professional video editors use iMacs though; my company has a video studio and they do some of their editing work on iMacs. There's a recent review comparing iMac versus Mac Pro at http://videoandfilmmaker.com/wp/index.php/news/imac-vs-macpro-great-debate/ although this was before the i7-configurable machine was released. The point is you don't need a machine like that to do professional video editing; the previous year's model did just fine. Clearly the Mac Pro is the better choice if you're doing 4K or larger, but the iMac is certainly capable of editing video.
> 
> http://videoandfilmmaker.com/wp/index.php/news/imac-vs-macpro-great-debate/
> 
> "Larry Jordan (filmmaker and Adobe trainer extraordinaire) recently purchased a new iMac and was very impressed with the way it handled everything he threw at it. His initial impressions were:
> 
> “This thing is fast! It loads fast. It runs smoothly. It renders quickly. Export is faster than real-time”. He then went on to say “This proves a point I’ve been making in my classes and webinars recently: virtually every Mac shipping today is fast enough to edit video; even 2K or 4K images. The real test is the graphics processing unit (GPU) and the speed of your storage system."


as someone who has owned at least half a dozen imacs i can tell you that they have advantages and disadvantages (like all pcs) ... the form factor is not conducive to customizability in terms of drives and monitors, portability, placement and so on ... they are clean certainly but the lack of customizability is a major drawback for serious 8 hour a day computer work


----------



## Just a Guy

I very much doubt many people on this board would come close to pushing the limits of any computer being sold today as a new model. Editing the occasional home video is a lot different than producing 4k broadcast video.

Where a Mac pro shines (all 12 cores) is when you are rendering special effects like you see on TV, not in stitching together home videos to play on facebook. It's comparing a fararri to a Toyota for driving kids to school, both are good and capable but one is really a waste of money for most people.

Most of the software out there (with the exception of high end products like Final Cut Pro and apparatus) aren't even designed to take advantage of multiple cores and, even if they do, rarely need the power to do their job as the calculations are done so quickly.

I remember when I got my first Mac pro many years ago, I tried pushing it to see what would happen...I opened a huge photoshop file and had it perform a complex render, I opened final cut and had it render a video, pulled up illustrator and rendered a vector, opened up several other program like a decompressor, and anything else I could think of that would do a sustained calculation...which is harder than you probably imagine with the processing speed involved...and never used more than 6 of the 8 cores (all the memory though which was probably the limiting factor). 

Irronically, a few days later, I noticed that my machine was using a sustained 4 cores, and most of my memory used, even though I wasn't really doing anything...so I investigated. It turned out to be Microsoft word was running in the background without a document open...just an example of their "quality" programming. The bug was later fixed in a patch.


----------



## GOB

Yeah...I find it incredibly amusing that people here are complaining about a minor issue with the iMac that 95% of users will never see when Apple is by the far the best at maximizing performance out of hardware. Meanwhile other companies brag about blazing fast hardware but their real-world performance doesn't compare because their software is terrible.

If you want to complain about companies that put hardware in and not getting proper performance, Apple is not the one you should be pointing fingers at.


----------



## fatcat

imac's have advantages and disadvantages which i have outlined above ... if i were in the market for another mac i would take a pro + a really good monitor over an imac ... there is no such thing as overkill in processing power, you end up with a machine that is too fast now but holds it's usefulness for longer than the average mac

i find that i need to buy a new mac about every 2 to 2.5 years to stay fast based on the os upgrades and software changes

i would buy the pro if i was going to spend that kind of money but the imac would work fine for occasional videos editing

for full-time work on the machine editing any kind of video, the pro is the way to go

remember, we are talking about dropping 3K+ on computer hardware here, it makes no sense to save a few bucks in the end and you _cannot_ have too much processing power


----------



## Just a Guy

If you spend the day surfing the web, using a word processor, a spreadsheet, and playing solitaire you can definitely have too much processor. 

That being said, I get more life out of the Mac pro than I do out of other machines.


----------



## fatcat

i have never bought a mac (and i have bought many) where within a year or earlier i wasn't wishing i had more processing power ... or, put more correctly since it isn't only the processor, more speed, which is a function of several components

some even say this is a conspiracy on apples part, mainly with regard to iphones (i don't personally endorse this theory i should add)

my ipod touch is a current 5th gen and it is running a lot slower under io8


----------



## Just a Guy

Add more memory and change the hard disk to a Solid State one and I guarantee you'll see a significant speed boost. Knowing where the bottleneck is is important.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Add more memory and change the hard disk to a Solid State one and I guarantee you'll see a significant speed boost. Knowing where the bottleneck is is important.


yes, for my mac mini i did exactly that, put in an ssd and doubled the ram and that has helped ...


----------



## Just a Guy

Doesn't that imply that the processor speed was pretty well wasted until you did so? Even with the upgrades, those components and the bus are still slowing down that machine. Don't even get me started on the programming side of the equation.


----------



## GOB

> Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Walkley this morning raises his price target on shares of Apple (AAPL) to $145 from $135, writing that his review of market data suggests continued strength for the iPhone 6 upgrade cycle.
> 
> Walkley writes that his assessment of vendor data in smartphones suggests, whose shares he rates a Buy, captured 93% of industry profits in Q4.
> 
> Apple may have one third of all users of smartphones by the end of 2018, he reckons:
> 
> We believe the strong iPhone 6 replacement sales should continue during C’15, as we estimate only 15% of the current estimated 404M iPhone installed base has upgraded to the new devices. We also anticipate continued strong share gains for the larger screen iPhones from high-tier Android smartphones during C’15 driving strong growth in the iPhone installed base and model the iPhone installed base growing to 487M subscribers exiting C’15 up 20% Y/Y. Longer term, we anticipate a gradually moderating rate of growth for the installed base from C’16 through C’18 and estimate 650M iPhone users exiting C’18. We note this base would only represent 1/3rd of an estimated 1.82B global premium smartphone subscribers anticipated by C’18. Finally, we anticipate steady long-term iPhone replacement sales within this growing iPhone installed base, and we believe this combined with our modest installed base growth expectations position Apple for steady sales of roughly 210M-215M iPhone units annually between C2015 to C2018.


Pretty incredible that a single company can capture 93% of profits in this intensely competitive space. Samsung took 9% of profits - their lowest percentage since 2008. This means the rest of the vendors combined lost money, but somehow people think Motorola, HTC and OnePlus are enormous threats to Apple instead of the other way around. 

One caveat in this data is that it does not include private companies such as Xiaomi, although the latest estimates suggest it made about $54 million in 2014, equivalent to a few hours of earnings to Apple.


----------



## m3s

fatcat said:


> some even say this is a conspiracy on apples part, mainly with regard to iphones (i don't personally endorse this theory i should add)
> 
> my ipod touch is a current 5th gen and it is running a lot slower under io8


I won't call it a conspiracy outright, at worst it is a marketing decision but I'm not sure it even stoops to that. It is the reality of a highly competitive market. New features have to come out faster to keep up with the times and spending resources to ensure the new OS is optimized for the older devices seems to be less of a priority than before. Maybe it was more for idealist Steve Jobs, but in the capitalist world it is not priority at all.

I am sensitive to performance as I use my devices for racing and heavy photo and video editing. The older iPhones definitely suffer on iOS 8 and can't handle the situations they used to - choppy graphics, processing speed, overheating in the sun, battery life.. Apple blocked demanding features from older devices because of this. Same for the laptops, but not as severe. Not all platforms get FREE OS upgrades for so many years though.


----------



## GOB

Yeah, it's not a conspiracy. You can't expect years old hardware to run brand new software perfectly. It would severely hamper the pace of the software innovation. 

There is some rather timely good news though. I think it's necessary.



> “Following the success of OS X Snow Leopard for Macs in 2009, one of iOS 9’s standout ‘features’ will be a directed focus on stabilizing and optimizing the operating system,” Mark Gurman reports for 9to5mac.
> “While stability is normally an expected component in Apple software rather than a marquee feature, the rapid pace of iOS releases and feature introductions has taken a toll on the operating system’s overall performance, recently leading to numerous complaints from long-time Apple users and regular customers alike,” Gurman reports. “For 2015, iOS 9 is going to include a collection of under-the-hood improvements.”
> 
> Gurman reports, “Sources tell us that iOS 9 engineers are putting a ‘huge’ focus on fixing bugs, maintaining stability, and boosting performance for the new operating system, rather than solely focusing on delivering major new feature additions.”


----------



## fatcat

> Gurman reports, “Sources tell us that iOS 9 engineers are putting a ‘huge’ focus on fixing bugs, maintaining stability, and boosting performance for the new operating system, rather than solely focusing on delivering major new feature additions.”


very wise ... ios8 was (is) the worst rollout in memory


----------



## GOB

Agreed - there are still some minor annoying bugs. Apple needs to maintain focus on quality, as hard as it is.


----------



## PuckiTwo

Would be interested in your opinion about the following: Apple raising more cash thru establishing a bond fund in Swiss Francs http://www.nasdaq.com/article/apple...-swiss-franc-bond-sale--update-20150210-00319


----------



## fatcat

PuckiTwo said:


> Would be interested in your opinion about the following: Apple raising more cash thru establishing a bond fund in Swiss Francs http://www.nasdaq.com/article/apple...-swiss-franc-bond-sale--update-20150210-00319


since large institutions are _paying_ people to take their money i assume apple is well-trusted enough to be a good place to park some cash and reap the spectacular yield of 25 basis points versus having to _pay_ someone 25 basis points ... the demand for swiss debt has created negative yields

ps. gob can (and will i'm sure) now tell you that putting money in apple is as good as putting it in the bank :biggrin:


----------



## PuckiTwo

fatcat said:


> 1. since large institutions are _paying_ people to take their money i assume apple is well-trusted enough to be a good place to park some cash and reap the spectacular yield of 25 basis points versus having to _pay_ someone 25 basis points ... the demand for swiss debt has created negative yields
> 2. ps. gob can (and will i'm sure) now tell you that putting money in apple is as good as putting it in the bank :biggrin:


:biggrin: from me too. Had the same thought. 
To 1. Yeah, nice fundraiser for Apple, presently most valued currency and soo cheap (for Apple). Too bad that they don't have to pay taxes at home like all the other small people. If I were buying any Swiss assets I would definitely not place them with Apple, no matter how successful they are otherwise. 

By the way, SWATCH is coming out with its own Smartwatch - so they say.


----------



## GOB

The bond sale is just raising more money that is going to wind up in the pockets of shareholders. No brainer at these crazy low interest rates. 

Apple certainly pays their share of tax - they are by far the largest taxpayer in America. The issue is their unwillingness to pay 35% tax for money they earned outside of the country. It is a prohibitive tax and one I don't agree with, and many other companies aside from Apple feel the same way. The USA is the most punitive country in world terms of taxing foreign earnings, and I have no problem with any company legally working their way around it. Hopefully it causes some sort of tax reform where a more appropriate rate is applied.


----------



## indexxx

My god- these are just insanely staggering numbers:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap...n-23639-from-its-first-trading-day-2015-02-10

This is the one that gets me-

Apple is bigger than the following companies combined: Google Inc. GOOG, +0.01% Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. SSNLF, -4.00% 005930, -1.52% HTC Corp. 2498, +1.02% , BlackBerry Ltd. BBRY, -0.50% Lenovo Group Ltd. LNVGY, +0.72% 0992, +1.18% , Hewlett-Packard Co. HPQ, -0.11% Cirrus Logic Inc. CRUS, +3.36% SanDisk Corp. SNDK, +2.78% Sony Corp. SNE, +1.44% 6758, +0.31% , Broadcom Corp. BRCM, +3.02% and Pandora Media Inc. P, +0.47% .

Bigger than all COMBINED.


----------



## cheech10

Bigger is misleading. Replace with "valued higher", because of expected future profits and growth, and it makes more sense (if you are an Apple believer, which the market on average is).


----------



## PuckiTwo

GOB said:


> The bond sale is just raising more money that is going to wind up in the pockets of shareholders. No brainer at these crazy low interest rates.


Apple is raising cash to put money in shareholders pockets by issuing DEBT! Isn't that what bond issues mean? Raising debt? Obviously, Apple feels enough heat from its shareholders so that it needs to give something back - BUT id does not want to pay it out of their own pocket!

According to different news articles Apple plans to raise in the near future 5.6 billion US$ on the US market in order finance share buy backs and dividend payments. Apparently, since April 2013 Apple has issued obligations with a total volume of 34,5 billion US$. How do we know where Apple will be in the next 10/15 years? How safe is it?

There are many threads on this forum warning investors to be cautious with dividend paying companies whose dividends and share buy backs are financed with debt. Why is Apple different?

You will say that Apple has reserves of apparently 170-some billion US$ (somewhere I read 113 billion) to put against it. Who cares – it is an unimaginable amount of money. But how do you know? Why does Apple need to raise so much cash if they have already so much?

Here is an interesting (German-language with rough translation) quoted excerpt from the “Neue Zuercher Zeitung” of Feb 9, 2015 (one of the leading papers in Switzerland): http://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/apple-feiert-premiere-mit-anleihe-in-franken-1.18479438. 2Nd paragraph:

“Favourable Conditions
The cancellation of the Euro-Franc-minimum price in mid January led to a clear slippage/easing of interest rates in the Swiss capital market. The returns for Swiss government bonds but also one of Nestle's bonds denominated in Francs slipped since then into negative territory. 
_The following translated by Google translate:_ *Market observers consider it possible that Apple with the placement of a shorter running bond could even give a negative return on the title.” *

What a nice surprise for Apple Swiss denominated bond holders if this became true. To pay Apple for the privilege to hold their bond units. Would be interesting to know if you and other CMFers would invest in that? And if so, why?

Note: Sorry, it's not a good translation, neither by me nor by Google translate. Couldn't find anything better. As I am not a professional translator I take no responsibility for the correctness of the translation.


----------



## GOB

Pucki, it's simply to avoid paying taxes that they don't need to pay. 

Option 1: Pay tax at 35% and use money for buybacks
Option 2: Raise debt at 2-4% and use money for buybacks

Apple is waiting for a tax break to bring their cash back to the USA. You may agree or disagree with principle, but as a shareholder I would consider it a moronic move for Apple to pay 35% tax when they don't need to, and when a tax break has happened before and will likely happen again. 35% of 178B is $62B. That's a lot of money. 

I have an idea of where Apple will be in ten years, and certainly Apple has an idea as well. But you're right, anythjng can happen. But $34B of debt is nothing for Apple. It's easily covered by their current cash. They make way more than $34B in a single year. The debt is not something to be concerned about.


----------



## GOB

Carl Icahn, who owns over $5B of AAPL and has been accumulating since the $60s, believes AAPL is worth $216 today. While I'm not quite that bullish, I certainly agree that the stock is significantly undervalued despite being at all time highs. It's a good read. 

http://www.shareholderssquaretable.com/letter-to-twitter-followers-regarding-apple/


----------



## indexxx

Grist for the mill...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-gears-up-to-challenge-tesla-in-electric-cars-2015-02-13


----------



## andrewf

I don't see Apple pursuing automotive. It is relatively low-margin and capital intensive, which would only serve to dilute its high margin, capital light consumer electronics business.


----------



## indexxx

one never knows- they could fail or disrupt another industry. Who could have guessed 40 years ago that a boring, low-profit item like a telephone could end up being used as a scanner/camera/measuring device navigator/ music player/guitar tuner etc.

I can see an unbelievable app market evolving around 'smart' cars. Same as wearables- those dismissing the Apple Watch are discounting the unforeseen wearable app revolution.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> I don't see Apple pursuing automotive. It is relatively low-margin and capital intensive, which would only serve to dilute its high margin, capital light consumer electronics business.


Do you have any idea how much Apple is planning to spend in capex next year? Capital light?!

Cars don't have to be low margin. Think BMW, Mercedes, Porsche level margins and not Toyota, Hyundai etc. Apple would obviously take the high quality, high margin approach as they do with almost everything. Besides, a 20% margin on a $60,000 car is nothing to sneeze at.


----------



## indexxx

Just noting that AAPL is now sitting at over $900/share pre-split price. Not that it matters what the pre-split would be but I remember being amazed when it hit $600 and then $700. Incredible.


----------



## kcowan

and 25% more in C$...


----------



## Jon_Snow

Juggernaut.


----------



## GOB

Looks like the market is finally getting the message. I think the electric car rumours are helping, as well as the hype for the Apple Watch. People are realizing the Applle has a lot more in the pipeline than upgraded iPhones.

It will be interesting to see if they'll go with a bigger dividend increase or remain heavy on the buybacks. I'll be happy either way...


----------



## peterk

Hrmph. Sold 10 shares at $119 a couple weeks ago. Good thing I held on to most of it!


----------



## Toronto.gal

GOB said:


> It will be interesting to see if they'll go with a *bigger dividend increase* or remain heavy on the buybacks. I'll be happy either way...


Speaking of 'rumours', I heard that the div. might be increased by 50%, which doesn't sound unreasonable.


----------



## GOB

It's certainly a possibility, but it would mean a significant reduction in the buyback. Apple's domestic cash is limited, even with the debt they're taking on. It's an interesting balance especially at these levels. While the stock is still highly undervalued, it's not the screaming buy it was at $60,$70,$80,90 etc. A buyback at $130 has a significantly smaller effect. 

50% boost would be great for my dividend growth goals. I'm thinking it'll probably be 15% along with a significant buyback plan. A larger boost may set up unrealistic expectations for next year's increase.

My prediction - 15% to $0.54 this year and 15% next year to $0.625 for an annual dividend of $2.50.


----------



## GOB

Rumours going around that AAPL is going to get included in the Dow...


----------



## kcowan

Apple investing profits in Europe

Seems to be a good strategy for deploying trapped profits. Ironic that the IRS causes these strategic moves.


----------



## GOB

Apple special event March 9. Should have clearer details on the Apple Watch including the pricing for the two more expensive lines. Maybe also a revamped MacBook Air. Stock is popping on the news.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> Smart watches in general are going to be pretty niche for at least the next couple of years. I don't think any of the software/feature offerings are compelling enough to justify the cost and hassle of another device requiring daily charging. The most compelling use case is fitness (for a niche audience), and there are dedicated products that do it better and don't require daily charging.


The quote above is from last September.

On the morning of February 24, 2015 Pebble announced its latest smart watch on Kickstarter. A few hours later it hit $3 million in pledged orders; I just checked and it's over $11 million today. See http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/24/pebble-watch-goes-color-on-kickstarter/ for more details. This from a company very few have even heard of. Granted, the big selling points for this watch versus the Apple Watch are that it keeps a charge for 7 days and it's a fraction of the price of an Apple Watch.

Smart watches may be a "niche" product, but it seems like it could be a pretty large niche.


----------



## humble_pie

brad said:


> On the morning of February 24, 2015 Pebble announced its latest smart watch on Kickstarter. A few hours later it hit $3 million in pledged orders; I just checked and it's over $11 million today. See http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/24/pebble-watch-goes-color-on-kickstarter/ for more details. This from a company very few have even heard of. Granted, the big selling points for this watch versus the Apple Watch are that it keeps a charge for 7 days and it's a fraction of the price of an Apple Watch.
> 
> Smart watches may be a "niche" product, but it seems like it could be a pretty large niche.



fascinating. Pebble Time is $160 US if pre-ordered on Kickstarter, will be $200 in retail locations later, battery lasts as noted. It's a deal just for the fitness apps, who cares if the microphone works.

now i have to look-see whether Pebble manufacturing is located stateside or partly stateside, as part of the re-industrialization of america.


----------



## andrewf

brad said:


> The quote above is from last September.
> 
> On the morning of February 24, 2015 Pebble announced its latest smart watch on Kickstarter. A few hours later it hit $3 million in pledged orders; I just checked and it's over $11 million today. See http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/24/pebble-watch-goes-color-on-kickstarter/ for more details. This from a company very few have even heard of. Granted, the big selling points for this watch versus the Apple Watch are that it keeps a charge for 7 days and it's a fraction of the price of an Apple Watch.
> 
> Smart watches may be a "niche" product, but it seems like it could be a pretty large niche.


Pebble sold a million units--on the scale of Apple that is still quite niche.

Pebble is not quite the same category as Android Wear/Apple Watch. These devices require daily charging but have a bit more computational power/higher performance screens. I think pebble is a more viable approach given the state of screen/battery technology, but I still don't see uptake being that great with the general public.


----------



## fatcat

the pebble is just too limited and that is the tradeoff for battery life, it's absolutely a niche product 

android / apple watches need much better battery life and even then i think will remain a niche product

only a true geek will feel the need for a watch to move data a foot and a half from his phone to his watch ... and of course, you must have a phone to even use these watches

none of which means the apple watch won't sell well

but nothing apple is now pivoting toward, including the watch will put much of a dent in their overwhelming dependence on the iphone as their cash cow


----------



## GOB

It's still too early to be making predictions with too much confidence, but I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be surprised at how successful Apple Watch will be - both as a product and as a contributor to Apple's financials. We don't know even know everything it can do, and it's certain that there will be big leaps in functionality in future generations. 

If the Edition line sells for $10,000, a million of those adds $10 billion to revenue just like that. And the profit margins on that will probably exceed the iPhone. Very few people here would be interested in a $10,000 watch, but don't underestimate how many rich people there are who like to spend money and flaunt their wealth. Rolex sells millions of watches every year, and there are countless other higher end brands that sell watches that cost more than most cars. People who buy watches like these often have collections of several watches, and it would be nothing to them to add an Apple Watch to their stash. 

Apple is already gearing up to appeal to the fashion-conscious: 

http://www.adweek.com/adfreak/apple...vertising-stylish-12-page-spread-vogue-163155

If 10% of the approximately 400 million iPhone users out there get an Apple Watch at an ASP of $500, that's $20 billion in revenue - more than 10% of Apple's 2014 revenue. It can definitely move the needle.


----------



## Terminator

GOB said:


> It's still too early to be making predictions with too much confidence, but I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be surprised at how successful Apple Watch will be - both as a product and as a contributor to Apple's financials. We don't know even know everything it can do, and it's certain that there will be big leaps in functionality in future generations.
> 
> If the Edition line sells for $10,000, a million of those adds $10 billion to revenue just like that. And the profit margins on that will probably exceed the iPhone. Very few people here would be interested in a $10,000 watch, but don't underestimate how many rich people there are who like to spend money and flaunt their wealth. Rolex sells millions of watches every year, and there are countless other higher end brands that sell watches that cost more than most cars. People who buy watches like these often have collections of several watches, and it would be nothing to them to add an Apple Watch to their stash.
> 
> Apple is already gearing up to appeal to the fashion-conscious:
> 
> http://www.adweek.com/adfreak/apple...vertising-stylish-12-page-spread-vogue-163155
> 
> If 10% of the approximately 400 million iPhone users out there get an Apple Watch at an ASP of $500, that's $20 billion in revenue - more than 10% of Apple's 2014 revenue. It can definitely move the needle.


The problem with your theory is that most "rich" or well off people who have watch collections and collect high end watches, are collecting mechanical automatic watches. I personally have a pretty large watch collection, and all of them except for one are mechanical watches. It might not make sense to people who are not into watches, but the whole reason why these high end watches cost so much is because they are literally a piece of functional art and craftsmanship. Many high caliber watches can take months to years to hand make, and can have hundreds of individual pieces inside them. 

I do think the newer generation will find the Apple watch useful, but it is obviously know where on par with the hand made craftsmanship of a mechanical automatic watch. Generally speaking, most guys who appreciate and collect high end watches would never be interested or in the market for a iWatch gadget (myself included). A quality mechanical watch can last a life time or longer, but this new Apple watch will be like the iPods and iPhones before it, and be obsolete compared to newer models in 5 years time.


----------



## GOB

You may or may not be right. The Apple Watch may not be on the level as a fine mechanical watch in terms of craftsmanship, but it is far more than a "gadget". The quality of the bands looks to be top notch and actually better than a lot of the bands I see on high end watches. 

The obsoleteness could be an issue, however there are people thinking it will be possible to simply switch out the internals for an upgrade. The Apple Watch has a System-in-Package S1 chip, which means there will only be a single part to swap out. Maybe this will be revealed on March 9. 

It's not only the craftsmanship and brand that bumps up the price - it's the gold. Compare two otherwise identical watches, one made of stainless steel and one made of gold. The gold one will have a $5000-10000+ premium added to it, which far exceeds the actual value of the gold content. So there is a lot to think about, and I would not dismiss the possibility of Apple selling a whole lot of very expensive watches.


----------



## GOB

This is a great balanced article on the Apple Watch from a guy who really knows watches. He raises points on both sides of the argument. Some quotes...



> I was lucky enough to be invited to Cupertino to witness the announcement of the Apple Watch firsthand, and though I do not believe it poses any threat to haute horology manufactures, I do think the Apple Watch will be a big problem for low-priced quartz watches, and even some entry-level mechanical watches. In years to come, it could pose a larger threat to higher end brands, too. The reason? Apple got more details right on their watch than the vast majority of Swiss and Asian brands do with similarly priced watches, and those details add up to a really impressive piece of design. It offers so much more functionality than other digitals it's almost embarrassing. But it's not perfect, by any means.





> The overall level of design in the Apple Watch simply blows away anything – digital or analog – in the watch space at $350. There is nothing that comes close to the fluidity, attention to detail, or simple build quality found on the Apple Watch in this price bracket.





> The Apple Watch can take an integrated strap or bracelet, or one with wire lugs. It totally changes the look of the watch, and swapping them couldn't be any easier. Changing straps is one thing, but the attention to detail on the straps and bracelets themselves is downright incredible, and when I mentioned above that nothing comes close in this price range, it is very visible when talking about straps.





> Those who love, and wear, mechanical watches tend to be in a slightly higher income bracket. They tend to want things that are beautifully made with great purpose – in a nutshell, Apple products. But what makes the millions of us who would never trade a Rolex in for an Apple is the emotion brought about by our watches – the fact that they are so timeless, so lasting, so personal. Nothing digital, no matter if Jony Ive (or Marc Newson) designed it, could ever replace that, if for no other reason than sheer life-cycle limitations. My watches will last for generations; this Apple Watch will last for five years, if we're lucky. On an emotional level, you can't compare them, and that is why I don't believe many serious watch lovers (who, again, would normally be racing to spend their cash on an Apple release) will go for this. It's directly competing for the same real estate, whereas if we had seen a bracelet of some kind announced yesterday, those early adapters, myself included, would be begging Apple to take their pre-pre-pre-order (truth be told, I'll obviously be buying one, but you know what I'm saying).





> This a question I've been asked countless times in the media of the past few months ( / days / hours). Will anyone be trading in their Lange Double-Split for an Apple Watch? Certainly not. But, will the average Lange owner buy an Apple Watch, wear it on the weekends, and then, after a great workout with it, decide to leave it on next for a vacation to the beach, and then maybe on casual Friday to the office? It's possible. Apple products have a way of making someone not want to live without them, and while I wasn't able to fully immerse myself in the OS yesterday, what I saw was impressive. So while certainly not direct competition for haute horology watchmaking right now, the Apple Watch is absolutely competition for the real estate of the wrist, and years down the road, it could spell trouble for traditional watches even at a high level. When you realize you just don't need something anymore, there is little desire to buy another.
> 
> At the lower end, I believe the Apple Watch is a serious threat to those less faithful lovers of analog watches. There is a certain percentage of the population that simply doesn't care if they're wearing a watch of any great manufacturing process and the Apple Watch will appeal to them, if it works as advertised. Brands like Suunto should be worried. Casio as well. Even Seiko with its Astron line could fall into the same group of those looking for pure function. The other thing that could spell trouble even for the Swiss is Apple's cool factor with the young. At 16, will someone want a Swatch or an Apple watch? At 20, will they want a Hamilton or the Apple Watch 3? At 25 will they want an Omega or an Apple Watch Plus? That should be a very real concern for the Swiss – appealing to a younger generation of buyers who live and breathe Apple.


http://www.hodinkee.com/blog/hodinkee-apple-watch-review

I do find it interesting that though he says a serious watch lover wouldn't buy one, he is in fact going to, and he is certainly a serious watch lover.


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> I do find it interesting that though he says a serious watch lover wouldn't buy one, he is in fact going to, and he is certainly a serious watch lover.


I think the key point is that, since Apple doesn't make low-end products, it's likely the case that lots of wealthy people have iPhones, iPads, etc. and are already in the Apple ecosystem. Buying an Apple Watch, even spending $10K or whatever it will cost for the gold one, would be a no-brainer for them for the sheer convenience and novelty of it. It's not a collector's item, it's a convenience accessory just like an iPhone is a convenience accessory. 

I personally have never worn a wrist watch; my watch is a pocket watch made in 1910 (it cost me $35 at a flea market) that still keeps perfect time after 105 years. But smart watches are actually making me open to the idea of wearing a wrist watch, for the first time in my life. I wouldn't buy an Apple watch because I don't have (and don't want) an iPhone, but I might look into the Pebble. It's a lot faster to look at something on your wrist than it is to fish something out of your pocket or bag.


----------



## fatcat

i haven't worn a watch for years 
i would consider a tech wrist watch that had good battery life and allowed me to sync my contacts and most important take voice notes and transcribe them to email and maybe had mapping

that would interest me
if i could get it for $100 and it lasted a week between charges i would be in (and of course worked without a phone)

i have no idea how the apple watch will do

no one thought they needed an ipad until they found out they couldn't live without one (though apparently that is now coming true, they can _indeed_ live without one)

maybe that will be the case with the watch but i see people getting sick of managing their tech and wanting to find ways to make it simpler and get more done with less stuff

the watch just adds another layer

a certain hardcore group will probably love it


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> no one thought they needed an ipad until they found out they couldn't live without one (though apparently that is now coming true, they can _indeed_ live without one)


People are still using their iPads and love them. The reason sales are stagnating is that they don't see the need to upgrade for 4 or 5 years. There is also no subsidized incentive, so it's a larger out of pocket expense (psychologically, at least).


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> People are still using their iPads and love them. The reason sales are stagnating is that they don't see the need to upgrade for 4 or 5 years. There is also no subsidized incentive, so it's a larger out of pocket expense (psychologically, at least).


it's not only the upgrade cycle it's that many people prefer their large phones over an ipad

i had my ipad air on a stand that i swivelled over my reading chair so i don't need to hold it and yet i find that i often prefer to read in another chair and hold it ... and then wish i had something much lighter

weight is a big issue ... even the mini is too heavy

for a lot of people a 5.5 iphone or android phone is a better device than a full sized (or even mini) tablet, the screen size and weight is perfect for them


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> it's not only the upgrade cycle it's that many people prefer their large phones over an ipad


I'd want to see actual statistics on this, though, as opposed to anecdotes.

The problem with large phones is that they're large. Lots of people prefer to have a small phone (the iPhone 6 is outselling the iPhone 6 Plus by a factor of nearly 3), while the iPad provides a better experience for web browsing, reading books, and watching video. Even the iPad is reportedly outselling the iPhone 6 Plus. I think the MacBook Air is probably the main competitor to the iPad; it's not as convenient but much more powerful, expecially as a device for work and creating content.


----------



## m3s

Samsung Galaxy S6 announced - metal chassis, glass front and back, no removable battery, no microSD slot, fingerprint sensor in the home button... Sounds like an iPhone 5? (iPhone 6 did away with the glass back) Oh and Microsoft bloatware to boot


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> I'd want to see actual statistics on this, though, as opposed to anecdotes.
> 
> The problem with large phones is that they're large. Lots of people prefer to have a small phone (the iPhone 6 is outselling the iPhone 6 Plus by a factor of nearly 3), while the iPad provides a better experience for web browsing, reading books, and watching video. Even the iPad is reportedly outselling the iPhone 6 Plus. I think the MacBook Air is probably the main competitor to the iPad; it's not as convenient but much more powerful, expecially as a device for work and creating content.


ok .... http://www.macrumors.com/2014/11/26/iphone-6-ipad-reading-pocket/



> iPhone 6 and 6 Plus Changing Users' Reading Habits as iPad Usage Declines
> 
> Since their September launch, Apple's iPhone 6 and 6 Plus have produced record-setting revenue and sales for Apple, but looking beyond financials, the handset also is radically changing the reading habits of those who own the large-sized devices, according to news-reading service Pocket.
> 
> Pocket recently analyzed 2 million article and video opens and examined the reading behavior of readers both before and after the launch of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. *In particular, the study compared how iPhone and iPad usage changed after the recent iPhone launch. *
> 
> *According to the results, customers with an iPhone 5s and an iPad spent an equal amount of time with each device. *
> 
> As users adopted the iPhone 6, however, *they spent considerably more time reading on their iPhones than on their iPads, with users choosing their iPhone over the iPad 72 percent of the time. *
> 
> *This trend was even greater among iPhone 6 Plus owners, who grabbed their iPhones 80 percent of the time when they wanted to read. The big screen of the iPhone 6 Plus also increased video watching by 40 percent. *


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> ok .... http://www.macrumors.com/2014/11/26/iphone-6-ipad-reading-pocket/
> 
> As users adopted the iPhone 6, however, they spent considerably more time reading on their iPhones than on their iPads, with users choosing their iPhone over the iPad 72 percent of the time.
> 
> This trend was even greater among iPhone 6 Plus owners, who grabbed their iPhones 80 percent of the time when they wanted to read. The big screen of the iPhone 6 Plus also increased video watching by 40 percent.


Sure, but the iPhone 6 is new and when you have a new device you're pretty much guaranteed to spend more time using it than your old device, simply because it's....new. What I'd like to see is the same analysis after 1-2 years to see if the pattern holds up over time.

In terms of convenience and portability, of course the iPhone's going to beat the iPad: you can carry it with you all the time. But the main reason the iPad succeeded in the first place is that people were getting tired of reading web pages and books, and watching videos, on the relatively tiny screen of a phone or iPod Touch. And laptops aren't ideal for reading books. So a tablet fills a niche that nothing else quite fits perfectly. 

It's a no-brainer that owners of the iPhone 6 Plus will shift to reading and watching videos on that device rather than a tablet. But the point is that the iPhone 6 Plus itself so far seems to be a niche product and doesn't have as wide appeal as the standard iPhone, because it's too big: it's not as pocketable. It'll appeal to people who want just one device for everything at the cost of larger size than a standard phone.


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> it's not only the upgrade cycle it's that many people prefer their large phones over an ipad
> 
> i had my ipad air on a stand that i swivelled over my reading chair so i don't need to hold it and yet i find that i often prefer to read in another chair and hold it ... and then wish i had something much lighter
> 
> weight is a big issue ... even the mini is too heavy
> 
> for a lot of people a 5.5 iphone or android phone is a better device than a full sized (or even mini) tablet, the screen size and weight is perfect for them


A large phone may somewhat commoditize an iPad Mini but certainly not the Air. Half of iPad sales are to first time buyers, so that is indicative of a growing market in terms of user base. It is far more of an upgrade cycle issue.


----------



## GOB

m3s said:


> Samsung Galaxy S6 announced - metal chassis, glass front and back, no removable battery, no microSD slot, fingerprint sensor in the home button... Sounds like an iPhone 5? (iPhone 6 did away with the glass back) Oh and Microsoft bloatware to boot



I don't know what Samsung is trying to do. While I don't care for a removable battery and storage there were many who did and chose Samsung for those specific reasons. Now they're copying the iPhone (again) and it basically comes down to iOS vs Android. At the same price point, it's no question who wins that battle.


----------



## GOB

Apple watch pricing leaked?

http://www.techfor.us/2015/02/apple-watch-price-from-349usd-to-20000usd/

If true, I like it. Lots of price points and something for everyone - from affordable to insane.


----------



## GOB

It's funny watching everyone scrambling to catch up to Apple Pay, going so far as to copy the naming. Samsung Pay and now Android Pay (rebranding of Google Wallet). Nothing inherently wrong but I do find it amusing, and little things like this confirm to me that Apple leads and everyone else follows. It won't be easy to change this trend.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> It's funny watching everyone scrambling to catch up to Apple Pay, going so far as to copy the naming. Samsung Pay and now Android Pay (rebranding of Google Wallet). Nothing inherently wrong but I do find it amusing, and little things like this confirm to me that Apple leads and everyone else follows. It won't be easy to change this trend.


you won't be surprised to hear that i view this somewhat the opposite for apple ... it's very smart marketing (by google and samsung) and has the effect of diluting the uniqueness of the moniker "pay" (i am amazed that apple hasn't copyrighted this)

afaik, apple doesn't own the technology underlying apple pay, they are licensing it ... the concept of transmitting a unique, one-time use code is not new and is the core of this kind of payment system

apple has always led but others always follow, copy and eventually catch up .... this is the crux of the problem apple faces ... it becomes harder and harder to hold the lead ... the arc of novelty becomes steeper and steeper


----------



## kcowan

I don't know why Apple Pay is held out as a source of new competition? There are dozens of payment systems already. I think of this app as an incentive to upgrade from an iPhone 5 if that is what the buyer wants. Apple "might" dominate the field for NFC/fingerprint payment systems. Will that combination emerge as the dominant one? Time will tell.


----------



## Just a Guy

I think part of the "excitement" about apple pay is that the Americans are pretty far behind in credit card technology even compared to canada. They still are primarily swipe based, not the chip based in their cards, so they don't have the prevailent "tap to pay" systems we have up here.

Now, we could get into the debate about the "tap to pay" being more insecure (since I can spend a lot of money without any proof I own the card), but the point is NFC is a big step down south...at least for the majority.

As Douglas Adams would say "what can you expect of a civilization who's people still think digital watches are a pretty cool thing"


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> I think part of the "excitement" about apple pay is that the Americans are pretty far behind in credit card technology even compared to canada. They still are primarily swipe based, not the chip based in their cards, so they don't have the prevailent "tap to pay" systems we have up here.
> 
> Now, we could get into the debate about the "tap to pay" being more insecure (since I can spend a lot of money without any proof I own the card), but the point is NFC is a big step down south...at least for the majority.


+1 ... i carry a phone normally in a zippered pocket in a shoulder bag ... i have my wallet in an open pocket next to it, it is much easier for me to pull out the wallet, slip out the mastercard and tap the register than it is to deal with the phone

the real problem apple pay (and others) face is this: unless you have every single card in the phone, you still have to carry the wallet and wallets typically have other cards that are important, like drivers licenses and so on

apple pay won't kill the wallet or credit cards 

though i do recognize that for younger people, the phone is their tool of choice

we are just at the beginning of this new technology and apple has the lead but i think is far from assured of winning the race

anyway, as usual it will be fun to see what apple has up its sleeve for next monday, maybe a giant ipad


----------



## Pluto

sold my aapl stock recently. Not a criticism of the company, as obviously it is fine. Just looks like the stock has topped out for now, and will consolidate. Plus I am concerned about the market in general and don't want to be too exposed. Will be happy to buy it back later when the smoke clears. I always end up with more money when by selling when the stock is way above the 50 day ma and is over bought.


----------



## GOB

kcowan said:


> I don't know why Apple Pay is held out as a source of new competition? There are dozens of payment systems already. I think of this app as an incentive to upgrade from an iPhone 5 if that is what the buyer wants. Apple "might" dominate the field for NFC/fingerprint payment systems. Will that combination emerge as the dominant one? Time will tell.


It's not about dominating, it's about setting industry trends. Apple didn't invent tokenization or the concept of secure payments, but they were the ones who had to develop a solution and get it out there. Then everyone else hops on board. Google Wallet was around for a long time but was absolute garbage, both in terms of UI and security. Why did they have to wait for Apple to do it right? Are they that incompetent? It bodes well for Apple, is my point, because only they seem to be able to create anything that sticks. The one exception is Samsung who I would credit larger screen phones for.


----------



## tenoclock

I love wrist watches, and know many who do. Also know a lot of watch snobs. 

I believe the higher end Apple Watch will fail spectaculary. Nothing even remotely digital can command that sort of price in the world of horology. So while I believe a few people will buy it who are rich and not watch freaks, it won't replace or even compete with the established luxury brands.

However I feel Apple can dominate the lower end watch market, and tap into the growing number of people who do not wear a wrist watch right now. Most designer watches are under threat right now, and rightly so - their products are outrageously overpriced for what they are offering.


----------



## brad

As GOB said, though, Apple has never been about domination. They aren't looking to "replace or even compete" with luxury watches. They're expecting that a few people who want to buy an Apple Watch anyway and have $$$ to burn will decide to spring for the luxury edition. 

I doubt Apple will dominate the lower end smart watch market either. The requirement for an iPhone and the expected one-day battery life will dissuade many potential users. They'll likely be a niche player, just as they are in some of their other product categories. As the market grows, even a small niche can be very profitable. Even if Apple only had 5% of the smartphone market it would be very profitable for them, because the smartphone market is so huge. They make plenty of money in the desktop and laptop computer market despite being a niche operating system.

While some people here seem to be convinced that smart watches will never be popular, I actually think they could be the next big thing. For one thing they're conspicuous. Once enough people start wearing them their friends will start wearing them and it'll just mushroom from there, the same way it did with the iPod years ago.


----------



## tenoclock

brad said:


> As GOB said, though, Apple has never been about domination. They aren't looking to "replace or even compete" with luxury watches. They're expecting that a few people who want to buy an Apple Watch anyway and have $$$ to burn will decide to spring for the luxury edition.
> 
> I doubt Apple will dominate the lower end smart watch market either. The requirement for an iPhone and the expected one-day battery life will dissuade many potential users. They'll likely be a niche player, just as they are in some of their other product categories. As the market grows, even a small niche can be very profitable. Even if Apple only had 5% of the smartphone market it would be very profitable for them, because the smartphone market is so huge. They make plenty of money in the desktop and laptop computer market despite being a niche operating system.
> 
> While some people here seem to be convinced that smart watches will never be popular, I actually think they could be the next big thing. For one thing they're conspicuous. Once enough people start wearing them their friends will start wearing them and it'll just mushroom from there, the same way it did with the iPod years ago.



I actually think smartwatches can become bigger than the smartphone market. This is one of the reasons why I bought AAPL last year. Combining Apple Pay with iWatch could be big. And with a small lense to satisfy all the human selfie urge, I think it's the next big product. Maybe not the first generation, but as they improve upon it they could be onto something. 

However I do not see it competing with luxury watches. They are totally different things and people buy them for completely different reasons. It's all about the movement use, the history of the watchmaker, the quality of the watch itself etc.


----------



## brad

tenoclock said:


> However I do not see it competing with luxury watches. They are totally different things and people buy them for completely different reasons. It's all about the movement use, the history of the watchmaker, the quality of the watch itself etc.


I agree. It's really more like I said: people will see a range of models of Apple Watch, and folks who tend to gravitate toward luxury will choose the higher-end ones simply because they're used to buying "the best" of everything. I don't think we're talking about people who ordinarily buy luxury watches. We're talking about people who might not even own a watch, but who like splurging on a high-end device. It's not so different from the people who used to buy 17" Macbooks or who buy the Mac Pro even though their work requires no more computing power than could be supplied by a Mac Mini.


----------



## Just a Guy

Yes, but when the iPhone first came out, who saw them completely destroying the regular phone and PDA market? What about the overpriced iPod descimating the music industry?

I used to bug people about their phone addiction, but now, even I use my phone all the time. The usefulness of the device is undeniable. So now you can have a luxury status symbol which makes your life easier and more productive...could gen 3 apple watch replace the Rolex...only time will tell, but I wouldn't bet against it.


----------



## brad

Just a Guy said:


> could gen 3 apple watch replace the Rolex...only time will tell, but I wouldn't bet against it.


I don't think so. The luxury watch market is the antithesis of digital -- it's more old school. For people who buy luxury watches, the watch isn't a tool they use to tell time, it's jewellery and a display of fine craftsmanship. The focus is more on art than function. I think people who use smart watches, even luxury smart watches, are a different market altogether. They buy a smart watch for its functionality and coolness factor. If there's a scale from base model to the top, those who habitually choose luxury items will buy at or near the top, simply because that's what they do.


----------



## indexxx

Pluto said:


> sold my aapl stock recently. Not a criticism of the company, as obviously it is fine. Just looks like the stock has topped out for now, and will consolidate. Plus I am concerned about the market in general and don't want to be too exposed. Will be happy to buy it back later when the smoke clears. I always end up with more money when by selling when the stock is way above the 50 day ma and is over bought.


Nobody ever went broke by locking in profits!


----------



## GOB

I think a lot of people are mistakenly assuming that every high-end watch owner cares about watchmaking history and complexity of mechanical movements etc. There is no doubt a good number that do, but there are also those that buy it simply because it is luxury and they have the money to spend. ThIs the type of person that would seriously consider the Apple Watch Edition. I know of many people like this - most of them women - who treat watches as another piece of expensive jewelry and don't care one bit about the internals.

There is no rule saying that an expensive watch must be mechanical and last forever. It's just that nobody has bothered to compete with this market.

Another point - wealth is relative. I'd never buy a $10,000 watch but there are billions of people in the world who would never spend $800 on a smartphone as I have done. So for those who feel that buying a gold watch is ridiculous, keep in mind that there are others who feel the same about your purchasing decisions. There are a lot of people on this planet where buying a $10,000 watch is the equivalent of buying a new pair of jeans at Costco for some of us.


----------



## tenoclock

GOB said:


> I think a lot of people are mistakenly assuming that every high-end watch owner cares about watchmaking history and complexity of mechanical movements etc. There is no doubt a good number that do, but there are also those that buy it simply because it is luxury and they have the money to spend. ThIs the type of person that would seriously consider the Apple Watch Edition. I know of many people like this - most of them women - who treat watches as another piece of expensive jewelry and don't care one bit about the internals.
> 
> There is no rule saying that an expensive watch must be mechanical and last forever. It's just that nobody has bothered to compete with this market.



If you visit some watch forums, you will see that anything digital has no place in the 'luxury' segment and people literally scoff at it. A watch above the $5,000 price tag is a piece of jewellery, not just a timepiece. And just like a piece of art, the complexity of the movement and the longevity as an heirloom is paramount. All this is supplemented by the watchmaker's history and it's brand. Can you imagine a quartz Patek Phillipe or a Rolex? It would be suicide for these watch companies to even think along those lines because they would be destroying the value of their brand as a whole. The reason why Tag Heuer is now considered 'pseudo' luxury is because they started using mass produced generic ETA movements in their. Which is exactly why they are the most likely company to venture in the smarwatch market. I doubt Patek or Rolex would. 

You won't find many quartz or digital watches above $1,500. In fact it's considered a rip off. A luxury Swiss mechanical timepiece will hold it's value in 10, 20, 30 years and have an increasing value from there on in. Can we say the same for a smart watch with a circuit board whose technology is going to be obsolete in 2 years and the watch non functional in 5? Not at all.

So it's not even the same industry. I do agree that a few people will buy the high end apple watch as a novelty, but it's not going to catch on. 

The lower end Apple Watch is another story. I believe it will be a success.


----------



## andrewf

I don't blame Apple for testing the market--it would be very high margin on an extension to an existing product. There is very low risk in developing the product beyond the more broad-market Watch. I just would not expect significant revenue or income to come from it. It's a niche of a niche.


----------



## SkyFall

Apple to replace AT&T in the Dow Jones 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102459031


----------



## GOB

tenoclock said:


> If you visit some watch forums, you will see that anything digital has no place in the 'luxury' segment and people literally scoff at it. A watch above the $5,000 price tag is a piece of jewellery, not just a timepiece. And just like a piece of art, the complexity of the movement and the longevity as an heirloom is paramount. All this is supplemented by the watchmaker's history and it's brand. Can you imagine a quartz Patek Phillipe or a Rolex? It would be suicide for these watch companies to even think along those lines because they would be destroying the value of their brand as a whole. The reason why Tag Heuer is now considered 'pseudo' luxury is because they started using mass produced generic ETA movements in their. Which is exactly why they are the most likely company to venture in the smarwatch market. I doubt Patek or Rolex would.
> 
> You won't find many quartz or digital watches above $1,500. In fact it's considered a rip off. A luxury Swiss mechanical timepiece will hold it's value in 10, 20, 30 years and have an increasing value from there on in. Can we say the same for a smart watch with a circuit board whose technology is going to be obsolete in 2 years and the watch non functional in 5? Not at all.
> 
> So it's not even the same industry. I do agree that a few people will buy the high end apple watch as a novelty, but it's not going to catch on.
> 
> The lower end Apple Watch is another story. I believe it will be a success.


My point is that there are a ton of people who buy luxury watches who do not visit watch forums or care about their movements. They just want something fancy on their wrist. Their reasons for buying a watch are entirely different. It's like going to most message boards and seeing the overwhelming majority of posters bashing Apple and saying they'll never buy their products. People in the real world are much different. 

The issue of obsoleteness may be addressed - we will hopefully find out Monday.


----------



## Just a Guy

If they have some way to replace the battery, which I have yet to heard about, it would make a big difference in my opinion. $10,000 for a disposable watch may strike even the rich as a silly idea.


----------



## Siciliano698

Hi Guys,

Can someone clarify what this means when apple joins the dow in terms of share price ?

Thanks have a great day


----------



## GOB

It will be a short-term boost (as we are seeing today) as there are a lot of funds that track the Dow and will have to buy Apple now. Long term, it actually hasn't shown that Dow inclusion is a good thing, but that may be more to do with the state of the companies that are than the fact that they are in the Dow. I haven't looked into too closely to be honest. In Apple's case, I'm not worried as it's undervalued, growing and will do well regardless.


----------



## tenoclock

I agree, infact most people want something fancy on their wrist - which is why Apple has a good chance to replace the designer watch market with their own watches. But when we are talking about $10,000+, fancy does not mean a circuit board in gold case which will be obsolete in 2-3 years. Fancy means jewellery which is timeless.


----------



## GOB

And what if that circuit board can be easily swapped out? It's always a danger to focus on people's current behaviour and expectations when discussing the potential of a new Apple product category. Apple has made people want things that they would have scoffed at if asked about it beforehand.


----------



## PuckiTwo

GOB said:


> My point is that there are a ton of people who buy luxury watches who do not visit watch forums or care about their movements. They just want something fancy on their wrist. .............


It's called "Status Symbol".
There a tons of people who buy expensive stuff, be it Rolex or Patek or Apple - it's a symbol of their "status". "See here, I can afford it"

Then there is the target group Tenoclock means who buy a Patek for its extremely fine piece of workmanship, etc. A piece of art. 

Maybe one time there will be a target group which sees an Apple Watch as a piece of art. Both have a brain behind it which developed, designed, constructed the piece.


----------



## GOB

^ exactly 

Two different groups of people who want the same thing. And add in a third group who have money to spend, want to make a fashion statement and also appreciate all the advantages that an Apple Watch has over a traditional one.

Anyway, I think there's too much attention being spent on the Edition line. What really matters to the product category is the success of the more mass-market models. The Edition can fail with the Sport succeeding, but the Edition cannot succeed if the Sport fails.


----------



## tenoclock

GOB said:


> And what if that circuit board can be easily swapped out? It's always a danger to focus on people's current behaviour and expectations when discussing the potential of a new Apple product category. Apple has made people want things that they would have scoffed at if asked about it beforehand.


I thought of that too, but then it does not remain 'timeless' - and that is the whole point of a luxury watch. Why do you think the luxury Swiss watchmakers haven't tried doing that using quartz technology, as it's obvious that even an average quality quartz movement is more accurate than most high end mechanical movements could ever be. There will always be people who will consider a watch's functionality when thinking about buying, but in the luxury watch market it's not about functionality, it's about what you can do without using electrical power. It's a completely different ball game.


----------



## brad

tenoclock said:


> There will always be people who will consider a watch's functionality when thinking about buying, but in the luxury watch market it's not about functionality, it's about what you can do without using electrical power. It's a completely different ball game.


That's what everyone's saying here: it's unlikely that the Edition (high end) Apple Watch will appeal to the luxury watch market. It will appeal to the high end of the lifestyle accessory market: the people who look at a range of models of a device and typically choose the most expensive one.


----------



## kcowan

brad said:


> That's what everyone's saying here: it's unlikely that the Edition (high end) Apple Watch will appeal to the luxury watch market. It will appeal to the high end of the lifestyle accessory market: the people who look at a range of models of a device and typically choose the most expensive one.


I think you are underestimating the Chinese market...


----------



## m3s

^^ That's true. Could end up like Buick. Tacky and overpriced in America, but wildly successful status symbol in China.


----------



## sags

I doubt the Apple watch will displace expensive mechanical watches, because people are fascinated with different forms of well designed mechanics.

Anthony Hopkins was in a movie called Fracture, in which he played a genius mechanical engineer who sought to plan the perfect murder of his wife.

One of the things audiences remembered from the movie was the Rolling Ball sculpture in it.






Here is another link to a different one called the Wave Rider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3T0ALc-i1YE

Today,..........Lego and Mine Craft are huge with kids because they can actually build things.

Apple watch may be a huge success, but it will be more for a fashion statement than for mechanical genius.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Call it timely but don't call it new 
Dick Tracy's watch, 69 years old:
View attachment 3865


----------



## brad

Prices are in for the Apple Watch: Sport: $349 and $399. Watch: $549 to $1099. Apple Watch Edition: $10,000 and up. Preorders April 10. Ship April 24.

It has an 18-hour battery life.

No big surprises, in today's event, although they did come out with a new MacBook that's half the thickness of the current MacBook Air and seems pretty cool (although it only has one port, called "USB-C"). All of the MacBook line got bumps in speed/capacity.


----------



## fatcat

i'm gonna pick up the rose-gold with rose grey modern buckle ... only $22K

keep an eye out for the "apple = rich people" memes that will now start to sprout up
maybe the chinese will be buying

the macbook looks terrific but not $1700 terrific
compare to the asus zenbook ux305 for less than half the price at $699 plus tax

this will be interesting to watch
clearly china is now of huge importance to apple and they are saying so with this product launch


----------



## GOB

The Zenbook looks like an impressive, perfectly capable device. But you're missing the point. People want Macs and are willing to spend more for them. Mac growth has outpaced the industry for a decade. The new MacBook is seriously impressive. The build quality and design are top notch. They've always had the best keyboards and especially trackpads, and they just got even better. There is also the operating system that will never be matched. People have their preferences - one may or may not be better than the other - but the trend is that younger people are getting more and more entrenched into iOS and OSX. More and more people only consider buying Macs now, and they keep getting better. The seamlessness between Mac, iPhone, iPad and Watch cannot be matched. These are soft features that are never mentioned by people who just compare hardware specs and price. 

Price seems to be the only factor for you but there is mountains of data showing that Apple is able to grow while maintaining its premium pricing. Until you can show the trend start to change its really a moot point. 

With the Edition line they chose to go ultra exclusive and high end. No mention of upgradability which means the target consumer will not give a second thought to replacing it every 2-4 years. May not appeal to the timeless mechanical watch fanatics but it is a nice business to get into, and like I said earlier the luxury watch market has many different types of people. A wide range of price points means there is something for everyone. Apple is an aspirational brand and they charge what people will be willing to pay, which is always a premium to competitors. 

I do wish there were some more impressive apps demoed, but it looks like there will be thousands ready to go at launch. Compare with what's out there for Android Wear. Looking at the pricing of the bands, I think overall Apple Watch margins are going to be significantly higher than the iPhone. Wall Street is going to be very happy. Q3 should show massive growth over last year. 

ResearchKit is an amazing leap forward and shows that Apple is always looking forward and innovating. It's nice that they made this open source so that everyone can contribute to this great cause. You can see how future iterations of Apple Watch will be able to tap into this.


----------



## brad

Yeah, I think my overall impression from this launch was "meh," but I felt that way about the iPod and iPad too.

For fitness it's not a great deal: A lot of the wrist-based fitness trackers (Fitbit, Garmin, etc.) do most of the things the Apple watch does for far less money; some have caller ID, etc., plus typically go 7 days before the battery needs charging. And you don't need an iPhone to use them.

Obviously it's convenient to be able to use a device on your wrist instead of fishing it out of a pocket, but is it worth $500+ for that convenience? We'll just have to see.

I agree about the Asus Zenbook; I'm actually starting to contemplate jumping the Apple ship after all these years (I've been a Mac owner since the mid 1980s) because as I get closer to retirement I don't want to be tied to a platform that seems to be getting more and more high end. It also bugs me that they keep abandoning pro apps (e.g., Aperture) and the Apple Store restrictions are starting to get to me. Not that Microsoft is any better, of course. A Chromebook might be an option eventually but they're still way too limited.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> The Zenbook looks like an impressive, perfectly capable device. But you're missing the point. People want Macs and are willing to spend more for them. Mac growth has outpaced the industry for a decade. The new MacBook is seriously impressive. The build quality and design are top notch. They've always had the best keyboards and especially trackpads, and they just got even better.


no surprise there ... it is a beautiful piece of kit, first rate ... and a certain group is willing to pay for it

but price does matter, if it didn't windows would hold a 50% market share rather than a 90% market share ... this is a $1700 laptop after tax ... the watch is a minimum of $349 (and who wants to be embarrassed by only buying the cheapo so figure $500 for the watch on average) these are not insignificant numbers

apple is now carrying a perilously higher and higher stack of expensive products

and purchasing power and wage growth is absolutely flat

like i say, china is now a must win for apple ... they need china very badly .. and the chinese may well step up ... i venture that the gold watches will outsell in china versus usa by about 5 or 10 to 1

to me carrying a $22K apple watch, which unlike regular watches which aren't easily distinguishable from a distance, is like carrying a sign that says "hey why not rob me ?"

it will be fun to see how this plays out


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> I agree about the Asus Zenbook; I'm actually starting to contemplate jumping the Apple ship after all these years (I've been a Mac owner since the mid 1980s) because as I get closer to retirement I don't want to be tied to a platform that seems to be getting more and more high end. It also bugs me that they keep abandoning pro apps (e.g., Aperture) and the Apple Store restrictions are starting to get to me. Not that Microsoft is any better, of course. A Chromebook might be an option eventually but they're still way too limited.


i bought my first mac in 1987 and have used them since ... i just got rid of my apple tv and bought a roku, i sold my iphone and bought a moto-g and i am ready to throw my ipod touch 5th gen against the wall because it has turned into absolute sludge with ios8 

this is what those of us who are critical of apple's future wonder: just how much is the apple premium worth ? ... and apple has answered by saying "we are doubling down, the premium is worth a LOT " ... maybe ... but not from me anymore and i have bought literally _dozens_ of their computers of all kinds, not to mention all the other stuff


----------



## GOB

Apple is going upmarket but they are not leaving behind the masses who enjoy their products. The $22,000 Apple watch will have literally zero impact on 99.9% of the population. $349 is the lowest price Apple has ever introduced a new product at. You may say it's still higher than an Android wearable but when has that ever not been the case? It's nothing new. Compare $349 Apple Watch with a $499 1st gen iPod and you get a lot more functionaity with the Watch. That $499 iPod is now part of a $749 iPhone that can do thousands of other things along with music playing. I'd argue that Apple products have never before represented such good value. Of course you can go the other way too and buy a gold watch, but that is just opulence and is there for those who want it, and shouldn't affect the rest of us. 

The new MacBook is priced high, but again less than the MacBook Air launched at. It will quickly come down in price as well just like the MacBook Airs did. Apple's pricing strategy is remarkably consistent, because it works. Apple is actually (very gradually) lowering their pricing for the bulk of their products, especially the Mac line. In fact, offering upmarket products is a great way to counterbalance the "inevitable" ASP and margin decline of their other products.


----------



## PuckiTwo

sags said:


> Apple watch may be a huge success, but it will be more for a fashion statement than for mechanical genius.


Comparing the beginning of the IT-age (and we are only at the beginning) to the mechanical world is like comparing going from place to place by horse and wagon vs the development of the car. People who were used to move from A to B by horse and wagon (taking days and weeks) would not be able to understand that you have devices now that let you race with 200 kms/h or more over a highway/autobahn.

You need to only watch toddlers lying in their strollers handling a smartphone better than I can. These kids when they have grown up - and even better their kids and grandkits - will no longer remember or only vaguely how it was when mummy and daddy needed to be at home to cook, take something out of the fridge, turn the lights off or even drive a car themselves. Let your imagination run wild and think what it will be like several generations down the road. 

There is art in a mechanical piece but please understand that there is also art in an IT-piece. It is the creative mind behind it that thought up this piece. Don't you admire that you can carry a black box around, put it anywhere and send a message to your son/parents/wife/friends/business companion? My son bought many moons ago a huge "antique" typewriter - it weighs a ton. ($20) It's almost an antique. In another 100 years it will be an antique. 

People who value good workmanship will always look out for it - in future it will be a well developed IT piece. Has nothing to do with being expensive - it has all to do how well it is made. Is Apple well made? I don't want to go into an argument about that with GOB. But if it isn't Apple there will somebody else in the "Internet of Things" or whatever our kids and grandchildren will call it who produces an exquisite piece and in their mind it will have the same value as you think now of a "Breitling Grenchen for 297 million CHF (who wears Rolex - they are so ugly)


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

In our case, we've been able survive all these years without owning a Mac/Apple premium product. Like all discretionary consumer goods, there will always be less expensive alternatives that work just fine. Same reason you won't find us in Holt Renfrew. In the rapidly evolving, price-plummeting world of technology, we can't see paying a premium price.


----------



## andrewf

fatcat said:


> i'm gonna pick up the rose-gold with rose grey modern buckle ... only $22K
> 
> keep an eye out for the "apple = rich people" memes that will now start to sprout up
> maybe the chinese will be buying
> 
> the macbook looks terrific but not $1700 terrific
> compare to the asus zenbook ux305 for less than half the price at $699 plus tax
> 
> this will be interesting to watch
> clearly china is now of huge importance to apple and they are saying so with this product launch


Where do you see it at that price? I don't think the price premium for Apple devices is that large.


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Where do you see it at that price? I don't think the price premium for Apple devices is that large.



View attachment 3897


as i said earlier, these will come with a (beautifully printed) sign that you can hang around your neck that says "Please ... steal my sh#t!"


----------



## andrewf

I meant the zenbook you referred to.


I watched this product demo:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwv-3wZocK4

Not feeling the 'more functionality than an iPod' claim is holding true. I think the UX is pretty poor and complex (two physical buttons, a scroll wheel, and multiple kinds of touches?) but I think all smart watches are challenged in this regard. Maybe there are other killer apps here, but the demo didn't show any of them. Payments could be nice. We'll see how well the health tracking functions work, but I don't think most consumers really care about their heart rate (especially if it means they have to charge a watch every. single. day.).


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> I meant the zenbook you referred to.


for the zenbook i saw this:



> If you’ve lusted over Asus’s Zenbook UX305 Ultrabook since it was announced at last September’s IFA show in Berlin, your wait is over. The company announced Monday that the UX305 is now available in the US and starts at a rather affordable $699.
> 
> Built around the Intel Core M processor, the base model UX305 features a 13.3-inch 1920 by 1080 display, 256GB of solid-state storage, 8GB of memory, and Intel HD Graphics 5300. The whole thing measures slightly less than half an inch thick and weighs around 2.6 pounds, according to Asus. The whole thing comes in a sleek aluminum shell with a black finish that Asus calls “Obsidian.”
> 
> A second UX305 configuration will come with a QHD+ multitouch display measuring 3200 by 1800 pixels, but Asus has yet to announce pricing or availability for that model.
> 
> Why this matters: In a world where the MacBook Air dominates the conversation around ultra thin-and-light notebooks, the UX305 looks to be an intriguing entry, if on price alone. The $699 starting price is a good $200 less than the 11-inch MacBook Air, and $300 less than Apple’s 13-inch base model (the UX305 has more memory, a higher storage capacity, and a higher-resolution screen than the base model 13-inch MacBook Air). The UX305 looks to be a good value relative to similar PC notebooks, as well: As Engadget notes, equivalent machines from Samsung and Lenovo come in at the $1200 to $1300 price range.


----------



## Terminator

I found this particularly interesting. Apple is using a new patent which allows them to use 1/3rd the gold that traditional 18k gold requires.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox..._trick_to_use_as_little_gold_as_possible.html


----------



## tenoclock

PuckiTwo said:


> Comparing the beginning of the IT-age (and we are only at the beginning) to the mechanical world is like comparing going from place to place by horse and wagon vs the development of the car. People who were used to move from A to B by horse and wagon (taking days and weeks) would not be able to understand that you have devices now that let you race with 200 kms/h or more over a highway/autobahn.
> 
> You need to only watch toddlers lying in their strollers handling a smartphone better than I can. These kids when they have grown up - and even better their kids and grandkits - will no longer remember or only vaguely how it was when mummy and daddy needed to be at home to cook, take something out of the fridge, turn the lights off or even drive a car themselves. Let your imagination run wild and think what it will be like several generations down the road.
> 
> There is art in a mechanical piece but please understand that there is also art in an IT-piece. It is the creative mind behind it that thought up this piece. Don't you admire that you can carry a black box around, put it anywhere and send a message to your son/parents/wife/friends/business companion? My son bought many moons ago a huge "antique" typewriter - it weighs a ton. ($20) It's almost an antique. In another 100 years it will be an antique.
> 
> People who value good workmanship will always look out for it - in future it will be a well developed IT piece. Has nothing to do with being expensive - it has all to do how well it is made. Is Apple well made? I don't want to go into an argument about that with GOB. But if it isn't Apple there will somebody else in the "Internet of Things" or whatever our kids and grandchildren will call it who produces an exquisite piece and in their mind it will have the same value as you think now of a "Breitling Grenchen for 297 million CHF (who wears Rolex - they are so ugly)



Ok, you don't understand the watch industry then. Swiss mechanical watch industry already went through the quartz revolution back in the 1970s which eliminated half of the manufacturers - mostly low end ones because quartz provided a better option for those people who only cared about the watch's functionality, not art. Low end quartz watches were also eliminated when cellphones became common - which is why you see most people today without watches. That battle is over now. Swiss luxury watch industry is now booming, despite quartz, and despite cellphones. It's simply because the luxury watch industry is about art, not IT. 

You can tell me - why in the world would someone buy a circuit board encased in gold for $22K which is going to be outdated in 2 years and completely obsolete in 5. You can see art in a mass produced IT product, well my cellphone which I bought for $150 has more circuits, more processing power, better battery, and is actually better. If I encase it in gold and stamp an apple on the back, it's not going to make it worth $22K, just like a printed photo of Mona Lisa off the internet is not equal to the original, nor is a digitally produced photoshopped art rendering the same as a hand painting. 

Again - your analogy of the typewriter is not correct. An expensive mechanical watch will keep accurate time, today, and 5 years from now, 50 years from now, and 200 years from now as well. A typewriter can be compared with a digital watch - no matter you encase it in gold, it's going to become obsolete. 

Yes, Rolex is ugly but Rolex is the most widely recognized Swiss brand and it sells at a premium because of one simply reason - you will not find a Rolex for $349.


----------



## indexxx

Holy- Even though my 6-year old Macbook Pro is still running flawlessly, I gotta say I'm drooling over the new Macbook. What a feat of engineering.


----------



## GOB

By the way fatcat, I don't know where you're getting $1,700 for the new MacBook. It starts at $1,299 USD, which is the basis to use since you're using USD pricing for the Zenbook. Let's please at least stick with real numbers in this discussion.

Indexxx - it does look amazing but my MBP is also going strong. Will not be upgrading for a few years yet.


----------



## Just a Guy

Well, the battery is replaceable, but you'd have to send it in to apple and no indication of cost...lifespan is 3 years for the battery. 

As for battery life...

One thing is amply clear: the daily battery life of the Watch will be a pain-point. Apple is claiming it will be good for “all-day mixed usage” — albeit that boils down to just “90 time checks, 90 notifications, 45 minutes of app use, and a 30-minute workout with music playback from Apple Watch via Bluetooth over the course of 18 hours”.

If you’re using the Watch for a workout with the heart rate sensor turned on usage drops to up to seven hours. Music playback squeezes its battery life to up to 6.5 hours. And taking phone calls will limit usage to up to three hours.


----------



## indexxx

Stock taking a hit today.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> By the way fatcat, I don't know where you're getting $1,700 for the new MacBook. It starts at $1,299 USD, which is the basis to use since you're using USD pricing for the Zenbook. Let's please at least stick with real numbers in this discussion.
> 
> Indexxx - it does look amazing but my MBP is also going strong. Will not be upgrading for a few years yet.


i see deals at 629 USD versus 1299 USD ... that is 50% less


----------



## fatcat

here is the emerging apple = rich people meme
this will get worse and will not be good for the brand at all

*Class anxiety, brought to you by Apple*
http://fusion.net/story/60698/class-anxiety-brought-to-you-by-apple/

apple pay is not a huge profit generator (so far) and has lots of competition on every front ... the watches are well made but too pricey and do nothing that android or the fitness watches don't do at a fraction of the price ... the laptops are premium priced against some excellent much lower alternatives

apple is doing the only thing it knows how to do, ask ridiculous prices for very high quality gear
i would love to own the macbook (if i needed a laptop which i don't like a lot of people), its a very nice piece of tech but no way i'm going to shell out double or more after tax

as tech ages it becomes less sexy by attrition and price carries more weight


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> i see deals at 629 USD versus 1299 USD ... that is 50% less


That's fine, but where did $1,700 come from? 

Apple = rich people has *always* been a meme. And there is some truth behind it. It's nothing new.

As tech ages? You mean like the laptop, where Apple (with ASPs double the competition) is growing at 25% and the rest of the market is declining? A laptop is old tech, isn't it?

Same old tired arguments that are proven false over and over again. Look at what the market is doing, not what you would do. We are generally a frugal bunch here. People like to spend money on nice things. 

A few hundred dollars more for:
- something you use every day
- better build quality and software than alternatives
- better customer service/warranty program
- longer lasting (usually)
- much higher resale value 
- better brand

Is it really such a ripoff? Factor in total cost of ownership and you may be surprised how affordable Macs really are. Clearly the market is gradually agreeing that the value proposition makes sense.


----------



## GOB

This seems to be the only thread where discussion about the actual stocks seems to get forgotten. Where do people see AAPL, the stock, in 1, 5, 10 years?


----------



## Just a Guy

The argument over apple being overpriced is something I find truly annoying, since you are comparing, forgive the pun, apples to oranges.

If you were to "deck out" a Windows, or Linux computer with the same quality of components, the price difference would be a lot closer. For example, apple's hard drives are server grade, not the cheapest model off the floor.

It's like comparing generic food to name brands, or "ungraded meat" vs "sterling grade"...in some cases it doesn't make a difference but, in a lot of cases, it can be a big difference.

I've rarely had components fail on a Mac, and I get quite a lifespan out of them when I compare it to the windows boxes I have.


----------



## GOB

Exactly. Try tricking out a Dell to make it halfway decent in performance and build quality. You end up paying just as much.


----------



## brad

GOB said:


> Exactly. Try tricking out a Dell to make it halfway decent in performance and build quality. You end up paying just as much.


Or more in some cases (I did a price comparison between Apple and Lenovo laptops with similar specs a few years ago, and the MacBooks were cheaper). I also remember reading somewhere recently (wish I could find the link) that Apple has access to components that aren't even available for Windows machines, so it's impossible to trick out a Dell or anything else to exactly match an Apple computer's performance. This might be one of the reasons why Windows seems to run faster on Macs than on Windows machines with similar specs, even if Windows was installed without all the usual bloatware.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> That's fine, but where did $1,700 come from?


on apple.ca the entry level macbook is $1549.00 x 12% tax = $1734

the usd is strong against most currencies which puts the price of the macbook much higher in other countries

to be clear i have not said apple is overpriced, i buy macs also because i recognize the value (i have the money to spend and am picky about my technology, most people are not, they are price driven)

what i am saying is that they (macbooks and laptops) are more expensive at the entry-level and bottom line which is how most people buy their computers ... once again windows market share confirms this

apple has always commanded a premium
the question is .. what is that premium worth ?


----------



## Just a Guy

According to your own argument, that *may have been* the reason for the windows market share...for the past several years, Mac market share is growing and windows market share is falling. 

I believe, when Steve jobs returned, apple had 3% of the overall market share (also arguably a smaller market), he initiated a 5% goal for Apple. Today, they command over 10% of the market share (not counting iOS devices). 

I also notice that the Windows market share encompasses all versions of Windows (including win nt, and the portable versions) in most of the calculations, yet they separate iOS from the Mac OS when reporting comes out...in fact, the last report I read even broke it down between versions of apple's OS's when compared against "windows" and "android". 

The reality doesn't match up with your theory.


----------



## indexxx

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-things-to-take-away-from-the-apple-event-2015-03-10

And this! :biggrin:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/features-of-the-new-apple-watch,36890/


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> According to your own argument, that *may have been* the reason for the windows market share...for the past several years, Mac market share is growing and windows market share is falling.
> 
> I believe, when Steve jobs returned, apple had 3% of the overall market share (also arguably a smaller market), he initiated a 5% goal for Apple. Today, they command over 10% of the market share (not counting iOS devices).
> 
> I also notice that the Windows market share encompasses all versions of Windows (including win nt, and the portable versions) in most of the calculations, yet they separate iOS from the Mac OS when reporting comes out...in fact, the last report I read even broke it down between versions of apple's OS's when compared against "windows" and "android".
> 
> The reality doesn't match up with your theory.


well, reality mostly never does match up with my theories :hopelessness: let me put it simply, price still matters to most of the population and once apple skims off the cream it will certainly matter to people overseas where the exchange rate makes apple products dizzingly high ... however, to the benefit of apple and her stockholders, price is secondary to other aspects of a computer or phone purchase ... apple does make good hardware, they make (most of the time) the best hardware



> indexxx
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fiv...ent-2015-03-10
> 
> And this!
> 
> http://www.theonion.com/articles/fea...e-watch,36890/


indeed, and then there's this:

Critics Think The Apple Watch Is Confusing And Annoying

• "On first use, the device felt a little confusing and clumsy. Sometimes it seemed to do one thing; at other times, just the opposite." -- Stephen Pulvirent, Bloomberg

• "The technology feels fresh and exciting but it can also seem confused and unnecessary… It's a confusing collection of options, and using the watch isn't as immediately intuitive as the iPhone. But it does take time for an entirely new interface to become second nature, and I'm sure anyone could learn its ways eventually." -- Heather Kelly, CNN Money

• "Overall, the whole thing felt a little bit fussy… while I've heard an argument that the swiping and zooming on the iPhone and iPad wasn't intuitive either until you saw it in a million TV commercials, I recall the first time somebody handed me their iPhone, a week after it came out, I had it figured out in seconds. This isn't like that." -- Matt Rosoff, Business Insider

The Apple Watch fails to make a phone call, likely due to connectivity issues in the demonstration area. (Credit: The Verge )

• "At first, it was really cool... But I suspect some buyers will feel overwhelmed by all the things you can do with the Apple Watch, causing those who aren’t rabid first-adopters to question whether they really want it." -- Rachel Metz, MIT Technology Review

• "I can’t seem to get past the worry that Apple’s Next Best And Brightest Thing is designed for a future that I don’t particularly want to inhabit. A pingy, buzzy, always visible, always on future that I’ll have to enter begrudgingly." -- Charlie Warzel, Buzzfeed

• "That feeling of not knowing exactly where you are or what's going to happen is pretty disorienting for an Apple product." -- Nilay Patel, The Verge

• "It can also get quickly annoying. What worries me is that Mr. Cook and his executive team didn’t talk as much on Monday about how it will help filter the unnecessary alerts. There is a whole world of apps that would love to buzz or ding on my wrist, even if I don’t really need them." -- Geoffrey A. Fowler, The Wall Street Journal


----------



## supperfly17

This is what you paid 1700$ for?


Inside a Macbook air..


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> on apple.ca the entry level macbook is $1549.00 x 12% tax = $1734
> 
> the usd is strong against most currencies which puts the price of the macbook much higher in other countries
> 
> to be clear i have not said apple is overpriced, i buy macs also because i recognize the value (i have the money to spend and am picky about my technology, most people are not, they are price driven)
> 
> what i am saying is that they (macbooks and laptops) are more expensive at the entry-level and bottom line which is how most people buy their computers ... once again windows market share confirms this
> 
> apple has always commanded a premium
> the question is .. what is that premium worth ?


So you compare Apple's after-tax CAD price to Asus' "starting at" price in USD (clearly pre-tax)? Come on, man. You lose all credibility when you do stuff like that.

What's the premium worth? Already answered in my previous post. Feel free to debate the points, but what's the use in continually asking questions that have been answered?


----------



## GOB

supperfly17 said:


> This is what you paid 1700$ for?
> 
> 
> Inside a Macbook air..


You're missing the battery. And miniaturized hardware is (obviously) more valuable.


----------



## KaeJS

GOB,

Did you get yourself a nice little watch yet? :biggrin:


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> So you compare Apple's after-tax CAD price to Asus' "starting at" price in USD (clearly pre-tax)? Come on, man. You lose all credibility when you do stuff like that.
> 
> What's the premium worth? Already answered in my previous post. Feel free to debate the points, but what's the use in continually asking questions that have been answered?


let me try again:

in us dollars this site: http://blog.laptopmag.com/macbook-12in-vs-competition

shows the ux305 with a starting (pre-tax) price of $699 and the macbook at $1299, that puts the asus at $50 more than *half of apple's starting price*

please remember overseas apple sales are going to be very high in countries that are tanking against the us dollar, this means most of the western first world where apple stuff is going to be very pricey, in australia the same macbook is: $1799AUD in canada it is $1549CAD

this is not chump change to students and working people

the worth of the apple premium has hardly been answered and is at the heart of the current debate between apple bears and bulls


----------



## tenoclock

Apple charges a premium because of the brand, it's as simple as that. Functionality wise, you can find much much better value elsewhere. Sales of Macbooks and iMacs have grown, mostly because of greater brand recognition due to the iphone, than anything else. Most millennial can justify this because we are a growing consumer society where debt is easily available to buy all the cool things. Apple is cool, so people are buying it. I doubt this is going to change anytime soon.


----------



## supperfly17

tenoclock said:


> Apple charges a premium because of the brand, it's as simple as that. Functionality wise, you can find much much better value elsewhere. Sales of Macbooks and iMacs have grown, mostly because of greater brand recognition due to the iphone, than anything else. Most millennial can justify this because we are a growing consumer society where debt is easily available to buy all the cool things. Apple is cool, so people are buying it. I doubt this is going to change anytime soon.



Pretty much this. Its like people arguing between buying a Lexus and a Toyota.


----------



## Just a Guy

supperfly17 said:


> This is what you paid 1700$ for?
> 
> 
> Inside a Macbook air..


Oh, look what the same can get you...









I could probably make more money from the first one, and I can definitely do more with it, plus it's sooo big compared to the second.


----------



## tenoclock

Lol, this picture reminded me of the movement inside a fake rolex: 

http://forums.watchuseek.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1231685&stc=1&d=1380082697


----------



## tenoclock

Just a Guy said:


> Oh, look what the same can get you...
> 
> View attachment 3921
> 
> 
> I could probably make more money from the first one, and I can definitely do more with it, plus it's sooo big compared to the second.


Apple is going to use this gold to make a $349 dollar Apple watch sell for $22K. :biggrin:

I think the gold is worth it's price


----------



## Just a Guy

tenoclock said:


> I think the gold is worth it's price


When it comes right down to it, gold is basically just a shiny rock, in some parts of the country you can go outside and just pick it up if you know where to look...just sayin'


----------



## Toronto.gal

fatcat said:


> 1. the watch is a minimum of $349 (and *who wants to be embarrassed by only buying the cheapo*
> 2. i'm gonna pick up the *rose-gold with rose grey modern buckle* ... only $22K


*1.* Thanks for the good chuckle, but I think said buyers would rather call their purchases sporty & snazzy.
*2.* Enjoy your Veblen good. each:


----------



## fatcat

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* Thanks for the good chuckle, but I think said buyers would rather call their purchases sporty & snazzy.
> *2.* Enjoy your Veblen good. each:


:biggrin:

brother gob needs to have this guys portrait hung on his mantle or better, tramp stamped above his bum :hopelessness: 

View attachment 3929


----------



## GOB

So much talk about the expensive gold watch just shows that Apple once again succeeds in brilliant free marketing. And no, I will not be getting a gold one, now or ever. As a shareholder I couldn't be happier though. 

I wish this thread would stop getting derailed and we could focus on stock talk instead of insults from insecure people, but I guess that's futile given the crowd here...

Funny how the question I posed (the only one that really matters regarding AAPL as an investment) has yet to be answered by anyone. I forget I'm on an investing forum when I see this thread.


----------



## tenoclock

Just a Guy said:


> When it comes right down to it, gold is basically just a shiny rock, in some parts of the country you can go outside and just pick it up if you know where to look...just sayin'


I agree, so is the $20 banknote in my pocket, it's just a piece of paper (now plastic) you can easily print in your basement, or your elected officials can just type trillions of it into existence.. Just saying.. 

Value is very subjective.


----------



## supperfly17

GOB said:


> So much talk about the expensive gold watch just shows that Apple once again succeeds in brilliant free marketing. And no, I will not be getting a gold one, now or ever. As a shareholder I couldn't be happier though.
> 
> I wish this thread would stop getting derailed and we could focus on stock talk instead of insults from insecure people, but I guess that's futile given the crowd here...
> 
> Funny how the question I posed (the only one that really matters regarding AAPL as an investment) has yet to be answered by anyone. I forget I'm on an investing forum when I see this thread.


Own the shares and enjoy the good times, noone will fault you for that.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> I wish this thread would stop getting derailed and we could focus on stock talk instead of insults from insecure people, but I guess that's futile given the crowd here...
> 
> Funny how the question I posed (the only one that really matters regarding AAPL as an investment) has yet to be answered by anyone. I forget I'm on an investing forum when I see this thread.


consider the possibility that your outsize investment in apple has made you a little touchy re. criticism of apple (i.e. i am not _actually_ suggesting that you get a tattoo of thorstein veblen right above yer behind) ... it might be a message that you should downsize your holding a little and be prepared to roll with the punches

as to the question of apple's "investability" you give the distinct impression that you feel you already _have_ the answer, said answer being that apple is a perfectly fine and even superlative investment

so, what you really want in this thread is concurrence and ratification of the rightness of your investment choice from the ignorant and unwashed masses (namely, me to name just one ... and maybe andrew of course)

well, i shall now deliver, i think apple is just a swell company and a damn fine place to park yer cash ... there you have it ... apple forever ... a trillion market cap won't be enough, this girl is just getting warmed up etc etc

did that help ? ... i hate to see you sulking


----------



## Causalien

Let me try to give some balance here.

Apple watch 1st gen has some value as a potential collectible like the iPod. The gold watch though will just eventually return to the value of the gold content. I like how it is 18k by weight ratio and not by volume, finally making a gold watch wearable and scratch reaistent. I thought about it for a second and decided nah.

Rolodex "official" fake rolex. Is almost as good as the real one in terms of intricacy. You need a black market connection and walk through 3 security checks to enter one if Rolodex's shops. But apple watch's internals is digital chips.

Battery life is less than desireable. 

Macbook has value as a developper tool. If you are a developper and travels, it might be an option. However as a take it with me travel tool. It is not well suited.

The apple watch face with tons of little circles activates a type of phobia in me. It's not common, but there's a name for it and have some significant population. It is an oversight on Johnny's part.

I am more attracted to Huawei's watch. But of course, waiting to hear about the battery life.


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> consider the possibility that your outsize investment in apple has made you a little touchy re. criticism of apple (i.e. i am not _actually_ suggesting that you get a tattoo of thorstein veblen right above yer behind) ... it might be a message that you should downsize your holding a little and be prepared to roll with the punches
> 
> as to the question of apple's "investability" you give the distinct impression that you feel you already _have_ the answer, said answer being that apple is a perfectly fine and even superlative investment
> 
> so, what you really want in this thread is concurrence and ratification of the rightness of your investment choice from the ignorant and unwashed masses (namely, me to name just one ... and maybe andrew of course)
> 
> well, i shall now deliver, i think apple is just a swell company and a damn fine place to park yer cash ... there you have it ... apple forever ... a trillion market cap won't be enough, this girl is just getting warmed up etc etc
> 
> did that help ? ... i hate to see you sulking


I'm not sulking, and I don't mind conflicting opinions. What frustrates me is when the thread gets overrun with the same thing over and over again. I completely understand your take on Apple products and pricing and your projections. But the market doesn't agree with you. If this starts to change, feel free to bring it up because then it will be worth discussing again. Just think of how many iPhone and iPad and Mac "killers" you've linked to over the past two years. Time to wait for some real evidence, don't you think?

Yes, I'm bullish on Apple but I try not to repeat myself ad nauseam. What I do is take any new information or data points that come around and analyze them. This is about AAPL the stock, not just the products. Obviously products are key, but why is there almost zero discussion about dividends, buybacks, technicals, growth numbers etc? Aren't those things far more important to an existing or potential investor than the price of a futuristic product that is obviously not yet expected to sell in mass quantity? And when talking about products, why is there so little discussion about sales numbers, margins, trends etc.? I know all these but they're changing every quarter so there are always new worthwhile talking points here. The fact that Apple is rapidly building up retail stores in China isn't mentioned but we have endless repeated debate about the fact that Apple products are priced at a premium (something that has always been the case and large reason for the company's success)? 

I don't need anyone to tell me I've made the right choice in my investment, thanks. And I won't be lightening my position until the stock is at least 50% higher than it is today (or the fundamentals take a dramatic turn for the worse). What I am trying to do is help others, as is the purpose of this board, but instead the message gets lost amidst a lot of posts that do not contribute to what I think is the purpose of the thread. But I am no mod.


----------



## Just a Guy

The reason why there is no discussion about dividends, buy backs, and value is because that's not what drives the price. It never has with apple.

Wall Street will move the price of apple based on its products.

From a stock point of view, there is nothing wrong with apple, but I expect the price to fall over the next month because the watch is unimpressive...once the first sales results come in, we'll probably see some stock movement as follows...

If the Apple watch doesn't sell millions, the stock will fall, ignoring the fact that it's a money printing machine right now based on existing products. If the watch takes off like the iPod did originally, despite the lacklustre opinion of the critics, expect the stock to go up in a stupid manner.


----------



## tenoclock

I just watched this video and it's hilarious. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL1xf_X0W2s&t=61

But it does outline one important point about the gold Apple watch - those people will buy it because everyone knows it's price.


----------



## fatcat

tenoclock said:


> I just watched this video and it's hilarious.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL1xf_X0W2s&t=61
> 
> But it does outline one important point about the gold Apple watch - those people will buy it because everyone knows it's price.


i'm not sure if it's hilarious or scary ... it actually is true, the watches are exactly the same and only the band and case are different, if you buy an apple gold watch you are saying unambiguously, "i have lots of money" ... 

even a patek philippe can argue that it has a more precise mechanism or better design, not so with the apple watch, it is purely about the money ... this is not a good meme for apple

i am very, very interested to see how long the lines are for the watch on the opening day, there will be lines but i really have to see what kind of demand is out there for this watch with the 18-hour battery life that i have to charge constantly and sync with my phone constantly and beeps every 4 seconds to tell me what i need to pay attention to .. 

there will absolutely be a hard core group who will buy it immediately, but the hard core group ain't big enough to generate the kind of sales apple needs .. they need real people

as i say, when i can make a phone call from it and throw away my phone, i am IN big time baby


----------



## GOB

Just a Guy said:


> The reason why there is no discussion about dividends, buy backs, and value is because that's not what drives the price. It never has with apple.
> 
> Wall Street will move the price of apple based on its products.
> 
> From a stock point of view, there is nothing wrong with apple, but I expect the price to fall over the next month because the watch is unimpressive...once the first sales results come in, we'll probably see some stock movement as follows...
> 
> If the Apple watch doesn't sell millions, the stock will fall, ignoring the fact that it's a money printing machine right now based on existing products. If the watch takes off like the iPod did originally, despite the lacklustre opinion of the critics, expect the stock to go up in a stupid manner.


I don't really agree with this. Short term definitely - product hype/disappointment drives the price of the stock. But as a long term investment, it is absolutely earnings and earnings growth that have driven the price up so high. Buybacks are contributing big time to EPS growth, and the dividend story is just getting started, but expect it to be a stabilizing influence on the stock in the years ahead.


----------



## Just a Guy

If the "value" option truly drove the price, it would never have fallen to $350 a few years back...that happened because apple didn't release anything "exciting for nearly 3 years after jobs died, while his bio suggested they had tons of things waiting in the pipeline.

Apple continued to produce record quarters, yet the stock sagged...

They start pumping out new products, and the price goes up at a huge pace....

I've been following Apple for a long time...I remember the record profits, stock dives days in the early days of job's return...everyone was waiting for Apple to die overnight, despite what the facts said about the company...

Then the critics were proven terribly wrong about the iPod and everything changed...suddenly Apple could do no wrong, and the stock went up, up, up no matter what they did...

Until jobs died.

Cook started the dividends and buybacks...the market yawned, the stock still stayed low.

It wasn't until products started coming again that the stock went up, up, up...

Except now the product looks like the original iPod and no one is sure how to react, having been wrong the last time...but cook isn't jobs, making is easy to pounce if things don't go well early...


----------



## GOB

Just a Guy said:


> If the "value" option truly drove the price, it would never have fallen to $350 a few years back...that happened because apple didn't release anything "exciting for nearly 3 years after jobs died, while his bio suggested they had tons of things waiting in the pipeline.
> 
> Apple continued to produce record quarters, yet the stock sagged...
> 
> They start pumping out new products, and the price goes up at a huge pace....
> 
> I've been following Apple for a long time...I remember the record profits, stock dives days in the early days of job's return...everyone was waiting for Apple to die overnight, despite what the facts said about the company...
> 
> Then the critics were proven terribly wrong about the iPod and everything changed...suddenly Apple could do no wrong, and the stock went up, up, up no matter what they did...
> 
> Until jobs died.
> 
> Cook started the dividends and buybacks...the market yawned, the stock still stayed low.
> 
> It wasn't until products started coming again that the stock went up, up, up...
> 
> Except now the product looks like the original iPod and no one is sure how to react, having been wrong the last time...but cook isn't jobs, making is easy to pounce if things don't go well early...


Nope. In hindisght there was a valid fundamental reason for the drop, although not to the depths of $350. Revenue growth went from high double digits to low, and EPS growth went negative as a result of reduced margins due to a transition period at Apple. People were used to 50%-100% growth and when they saw that stop so suddenly they got scared. The iPhone 5 was extremely popular and was the best selling phone of all time. But the earnings landscape changed.

I am still convinced that short term is influenced by product hype, technicals etc. but fundamental earnings are what matter long term. If Apple releases nothing new for the next ten years but still takes in $60B a year, their cash hoard will increase by $600B. That is going to move the stock up, without a doubt, or they'll be able to buy back every song outstanding share with their cash.


----------



## Just a Guy

I agree with you that it's a sound company with nothing, currently, that is a concern to its value. However, if the watch is a bust, I'd bet the stock dives, even though it is under or at least fairly valued today.

The Apple is doomed headlines are always at the ready...only true buy and hold, long term investors see apple the way it is...and there are few of us around anymore.

Don't you know, buy and hold is dead...it doesn't work.

It's all about stock manipulation these days.


----------



## andrewf

Yes, Apple is trading at a low forward P/E, which makes it a pretty attractive investment if its sales and profitability remain at least flat or continue to grow. The fact that it trades at such a low P/E is the market expressing caution about future revenue and profits. I think Apple is a much safer investment currently than the S&P as a whole, though I agree with the market's caution given that tech companies don't tend to stay dominant indefinitely. It will be difficult to predict what will eventually cause Apple to fall from grace, but at least you are not paying a premium for the current business.


----------



## fatcat

ah yes, the apple gold watch backlash bubbles along predictably on schedule

from kevin rose ... _The Gold Apple Watch Is Perfect For Douchebags_: http://techcrunch.com/2015/03/11/rose_gold/

apple already has enough problems with their tax dodging, sweat shop, pathetic job creator reputation
now they have added "symbol of the 1%" to the meme, not good ..
the whole thing is a bad idea from the git-go

let the $500 watch have a run, if the masses fall in love then tease out the gold watch as the wet dream of the bourgeoisie next year sort of on the down low maybe

View attachment 3961


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## GOB

andrewf said:


> Yes, Apple is trading at a low forward P/E, which makes it a pretty attractive investment if its sales and profitability remain at least flat or continue to grow. The fact that it trades at such a low P/E is the market expressing caution about future revenue and profits. I think Apple is a much safer investment currently than the S&P as a whole, though I agree with the market's caution given that tech companies don't tend to stay dominant indefinitely. It will be difficult to predict what will eventually cause Apple to fall from grace, but at least you are not paying a premium for the current business.


Agreed. I don't believe in paying a premium for any business - not even AAPL. If the time comes that AAPL is overvalued I'll be happy to book most or all of my profits. 

As for that wonderful Asus Zenbook, starting at $699...what happens when you match up the specs to the new Macbook (8GB RAM, 256GB SSD, high-res screen)? 










Interesting, isn't it? And of course, if you've ever use a Mac trackpad you'll know it's in a class of its own, even without the new gestures added. Also no backlit keyboard on the Asus - something I use a lot. Oh, it's also 30% heavier. Kind of a big factor when someone's looking for an ultrabook, right? To look at price assuming they are equivalent machines is a false premise from the start. 

Pathetic job creator? You're kidding, right?

https://www.apple.com/about/job-creation/

I've heard all the criticisms about Apple hundreds of times, but their contribution to the economy is not one I've heard before. You are really reaching now. Your description of Apple's reputation does not sound like a company with most powerful brand in the world. Something's not right. You've been spending too much time on the internet.


----------



## andrewf

It has ports, though. You have to budget for the $80 dongle, and probable replacements when it gets lost. What an inelegant solution.


----------



## Just a Guy

When's the last time you used a floppy disk? Cd rom? Dvd? How about your parallel port? SCSI? Serial?

Heck, they now have wifi hard disks 2TB, for under $200. They have wifi/Bluetooth memory sticks, wireless video out and they are starting to go to wireless power sources for recharging.

I used to mourn the loss of ports like some people but, I must admit, I rarely use any...about once a year, if that, I may encounter a time when I run into a situation where I "miss" having a port, but I can usually find a solution without using any adapters.

I can walk into my client's offices transfer files, broadcast presentations, print on their network, even remotely take over their machines all from my phone wirelessly using free software. Maybe people just need to learn how to use the technology they own...there are "modern" solutions out there...unless your the type who still don't trust them "horseless carriages".

I would say cable connections are the real inelegant solution.


----------



## brad

Just a Guy said:


> I would say cable connections are the real inelegant solution.


True, but they're still practical.

Apple likes to push people toward a wireless and cloud-connected future, and sometimes they come out with products that are a bit ahead of their time. The new MacBook has only one multipurpose USB-C port, and that would make things difficult for millions of Mac users, to mention expensive because they'd have to use wireless backup (or backup to the cloud, which is what Apple wants you to do), wireless printers, etc. And too bad for you if you have a Fitbit or other device that uses a USB dongle. Oh, and if you need to use earphones or if you want to use a line-in connection to record music from an analog device, you'll have to buy more connectors or new equipment. Have a digital camera? Some allow you to upload photos wirelessly, but Apple probably just assumes you'll use an iPhone for all your photos. It's not like you can't connect those things with USB-C, but it's not as convenient as having multiple ports. Plus if you have a Thunderbolt monitor, how are you going to connect it to your new Macbook?

Google's newest high-end Chromebook also uses USB-C although I believe it has at least one or two other ports.


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> It has ports, though. You have to budget for the $80 dongle, and probable replacements when it gets lost. What an inelegant solution.


Sure. But the point I'm making is it isn't a case of $1300 vs $700 as has been implied.

The MacBook certainly is ahead of its time and won't appeal to many people in its current form. But the same was said about the MacBook Air, and look how popular it is today. It isn't like the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro no longer exist - there are options for different needs.


----------



## supperfly17

GOB said:


> Sure. But the point I'm making is it isn't a case of $1300 vs $700 as has been implied.
> 
> The MacBook certainly is ahead of its time and won't appeal to many people in its current form. But the same was said about the MacBook Air, and look how popular it is today. It isn't like the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro no longer exist - there are options for different needs.


It seems like your time invested in this thread and defending your stock purchase will almost lead you to have an overall loss on your investment. Every hour you spend defending apple and your stock purchase you lose 20-40$ of wasted time. Think about it. You dont have to validate your purchase to anyone, who cares what others think, why do you have to prove them wrong, just reap the benefits.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

I apologize in advance that this post is not directly related to AAPL as an equity investment:cower:: 
As with many consumables, the question might be whether a user needs the 'best' performing solution, or whether a less expensive alternative does the job just fine (i.e. save your money). I seem to recall that Macs were pretty well necessary for advanced photo/graphics/video editing, etc., but for the more mundane uses that many of us required they were overkill.
Part of Apple's plan has always been to steer consumers toward their way of doing things (os, minus dvd drives, minus usb ports, etc.). It's 'our way or the highway'. We've chosen to stay on the highway rather than join the apple cult.


----------



## kcowan

Just a Guy said:


> I would say cable connections are the real inelegant solution.


I see the iWatch as a cloud device for tunes. messages and apps. It is a few years away but I am confident it will happen. The need for an iPhone is just a transient stage. They just need to harness your body motion to generate electricity.


----------



## brad

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> I seem to recall that Macs were pretty well necessary for advanced photo/graphics/video editing, etc., but for the more mundane uses that many of us required they were overkill.


No, that's not really true either. My brother writes plugins for computer animation software used by many of the big Hollywood studios, and many of them are using Windows machines for CG and video editing. Advanced photo and graphics can all be done on Windows just as well as on a Mac. I think it's just that there's a longstanding tradition for "creative" people to use Macs, because in the 1990s and even a bit later the Mac was way ahead of Windows in that regard. The Mac had a big head start on the interface that Microsoft later tried to imitate with Windows. Today, though, plenty of graphic designers, video editors, etc. use Windows, and many business people, scientists, economists, and government workers use Macs. They're both good platforms; I think it's mainly what you're used to and what you're fed up with that causes you to either stick with one platform or switch to the other.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> You've been spending too much time on the internet.


now ... don't you be talking trash about my precious internet ... I LOVE MY INTERNET !

i'm bored with the zenbook ... lets go back to the watch ... 

this sums the watch up perfectly, precisely and presciently

http://www.theverge.com/2015/3/10/8183639/apple-watch-use-case-iphone-notification-marketing

*Apple doesn't want to talk about the real use for the Apple Watch*



> Yesterday Tim Cook showed off all the things you can do with an Apple Watch. You can transmit your heartbeat and open your garage door; you can summon an Uber and peruse Instagram. Basically, you can do a lot of the things you can do on your phone, but on your wrist. *That seems nice but doesn’t really answer the question of why you’d spend a few hundred dollars (or more) for a device that does the same things as the device in your pocket.* Apple’s challenge was to present a compelling use case for the watch, and it mostly failed to. ....................
> 
> You’d have to acknowledge that people can have fraught relationships with their phones, and that their attachment to them is deeply ambivalent.......................
> 
> It’s also a paradoxical case to make. How do you tell people who feel queasy about being too immersed in their phones that the solution is buying another device that they physically strap onto their body and buzzes them whenever they get a message?.....................
> 
> Do you feel too plugged-in? Maybe you’re just not plugged in enough! .................
> 
> *And of course there’s the strong possibility that the watch won’t free you from your devices — instead, it’ll do exactly the opposite.* Will you really stop twitchily checking to see if you might have missed something, or will a screen that’s less of a hassle to glance at only make it an easier itch to scratch? Will you be able to relax in between pings, or will you exist in a constant state of anticipation and half-distracted awareness?


in fact, i *do* think that watches will find a place on our wrists but only when we can jettison the phone and that may be a while, in the meantime this will be a geek device mainly and the question is will geeky profits really bulk up apple's bottom line ?

the gold watch will prove to be big marketing mistake that should have come long after the low cost watch ... if at all ...

it will be fun to watch (the watch) :biggrin:


----------



## indexxx

supperfly17 said:


> It seems like your time invested in this thread and defending your stock purchase will almost lead you to have an overall loss on your investment. Every hour you spend defending apple and your stock purchase you lose 20-40$ of wasted time. Think about it. You dont have to validate your purchase to anyone, who cares what others think, why do you have to prove them wrong, just reap the benefits.


Why does anyone bother posting on here at all? Why answer anyone's questions? Let's just let each other sink or swim. 

I don't think GOB (excuse me for speaking for someone else) is trying to validate the purchase of AAPL; rather, he's trying to (very patiently IMHO) present reasonable responses to people's sometimes over zealous or ill-considered Apple bashing. I've found GOB to be pretty accurate overall regarding this stock, far more so than its detractors, and I've appreciated that insight greatly.

Besides, one could argue that every time anyone does anything non-work related they are 'losing' X amount per hour. Kind of a specious point. Maybe helping others is worth that amount to some. Maybe the personal entertainment value is there. Could be altruism. But I better get up and do something productive- as they say in the art world, 'time is Monet'.


----------



## supperfly17

indexxx said:


> Why does anyone bother posting on here at all? Why answer anyone's questions? Let's just let each other sink or swim.
> 
> I don't think GOB (excuse me for speaking for someone else) is trying to validate the purchase of AAPL; rather, he's trying to (very patiently IMHO) present reasonable responses to people's sometimes over zealous or ill-considered Apple bashing. I've found GOB to be pretty accurate overall regarding this stock, far more so than its detractors, and I've appreciated that insight greatly.
> 
> Besides, one could argue that every time anyone does anything non-work related they are 'losing' X amount per hour. Kind of a specious point. Maybe helping others is worth that amount to some. Maybe the personal entertainment value is there. Could be altruism. But I better get up and do something productive- as they say in the art world, 'time is Monet'.


Good point, I just think he crossed the line of sanity in this thread. Thats all.


----------



## GOB

fatcat said:


> now ... don't you be talking trash about my precious internet ... I LOVE MY INTERNET !
> 
> i'm bored with the zenbook ... lets go back to the watch ...
> 
> this sums the watch up perfectly, precisely and presciently
> 
> http://www.theverge.com/2015/3/10/8183639/apple-watch-use-case-iphone-notification-marketing
> 
> *Apple doesn't want to talk about the real use for the Apple Watch*
> 
> 
> 
> in fact, i *do* think that watches will find a place on our wrists but only when we can jettison the phone and that may be a while, in the meantime this will be a geek device mainly and the question is will geeky profits really bulk up apple's bottom line ?
> 
> the gold watch will prove to be big marketing mistake that should have come long after the low cost watch ... if at all ...
> 
> it will be fun to watch (the watch) :biggrin:


At this point, everyone's opinion on the Apple Watch (including mine) is only a guess and not substantiated by much. I put more credence into the opinions of those who have actually been able to play around with one, and those are mostly positive. But even those are based on just a few minutes of use.

My prediction - sellouts and long lines. Granted, that can be controlled by Apple on the supply side. I wouldn't be surprised with 20 million units sold this year, which would make the Apple Watch more profitable than Rolex and Omega right off the bat.



supperfly17 said:


> It seems like your time invested in this thread and defending your stock purchase will almost lead you to have an overall loss on your investment. Every hour you spend defending apple and your stock purchase you lose 20-40$ of wasted time. Think about it. You dont have to validate your purchase to anyone, who cares what others think, why do you have to prove them wrong, just reap the benefits.


Even if I used your valuation of my time, I'd have to spend a few thousand more hours to be making a loss on my investment :smilet-digitalpoint I don't think of it like that thought. I do get frustrated at times but I like to help people and from a selfish perspective reading and responding to the negative arguments keeps me honest and on top of things even if most are repetitive. The more involved I am with AAPL discussion, the more confidence I have in my investment and faster I can react to any changes. 

Indexxx - I appreciate your appreciation


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## fatcat

GOB said:


> At this point, everyone's opinion on the Apple Watch (including mine) is only a guess and not substantiated by much. I put more credence into the opinions of those who have actually been able to play around with one, and those are mostly positive. But even those are based on just a few minutes of use.
> 
> My prediction - sellouts and long lines. Granted, that can be controlled by Apple on the supply side. I wouldn't be surprised with 20 million units sold this year, which would make the Apple Watch more profitable than Rolex and Omega right off the bat.


there used to be a saying something to the effect of "nobody gets fired for buying big blue (ibm)" ... 

apple is in a similar position, betting on apple at this point is a far better bet than just picking red or black ... 

there will be sellouts, there will be lines ... 

the real question is how far will this widen out into the masses ?

how many watches will the "normals" buy ... thats the question ... 

it will be fun to watch ... 

as i say, when i can make a phone call on it without my phone in proximity, i'm all in on the apple watch, i might even buy the $900 copper version to help with my arthritis :biggrin:


----------



## m3s

fatcat said:


> as i say, when i can make a phone call on it without my phone in proximity, i'm all in on the apple watch, i might even buy the $900 copper version to help with my arthritis :biggrin:


hate to tell you.. but nobody under the age of.... makes phone calls anymore. I see a smartwatch as a health sensor, notification/reminders, widget display of information you're tracking etc. It's not a smartphone replacement

Apple software has actually regressed to appeal to more people. The latest versions of Final Cut were actually steps backwards and Aperture has been completely replaced by iPhoto which is far less professional.. more mainstream


----------



## Spudd

I think a huge target audience for the watch will be women. As a woman, I often don't have pockets at all, or if I have them, they're small and unsuitable for carrying a cellphone. Women tend to keep their phones in a purse or bag rather than on their person, which means notifications aren't as noticeable. For me, the big excitement with the watch is having the notifications on my wrist, so I won't miss texts/calls. 

The fact that the Apple watch comes in 2 sizes is a HUGE win. If I still had an iPhone, I'd be all over the Apple watch in a heartbeat.


----------



## fatcat

m3s said:


> hate to tell you.. but nobody under the age of.... makes phone calls anymore. I see a smartwatch as a health sensor, notification/reminders, widget display of information you're tracking etc. It's not a smartphone replacement


you may well be right ... we all have our own relationship with our technology ... i love texting and i'm pretty new to texting but you still need a phone, you have to have a phone 

and i just do not see the value / time / energy / money proposition in having to have 2 electronic gadgets residing 2 feet from each other on my person at all times, i don't see it ... for geeks and the uber-busy, maybe

but for normals, i don't see it


----------



## m3s

I think it will become mainstream.. because you can look at your wrist a lot faster than taking a phone out of your pocket. As more and more electronics become "smart" and as more apps figure out what notifications are for (vs sending email updates etc..) a smartwatch becomes more useful to see and dismiss these notifications quickly. I think we are at about 1995 in PCs right now

But then if you go back to 2010, it seemed like I was the minority here who thought touchscreen smartphones would become mainstream. It seemed like people had a million reasons why they don't like touchscreens.. then they became mainstream. I'm in no rush to buy a smartwatch as they will only improve, and it's a security infringement at work, but I think they will become mainstream.

I think they will especially become mainstream for old people. Health status monitoring and tracking, digital health info display for emergencies, alarms, notifications, reminders etc.. Heck my grandmother has alzheimer and I can think of a thousand ways something like this could help her. But we are looking at windows 95 and saying "Naw, that's just for geeks and business types"


----------



## humble_pie

m3s said:


> I think it will become mainstream ... if you go back to 2010, it seemed like I was the minority here who thought touchscreen smartphones would become mainstream ... I think they will especially become mainstream for old people. Health status monitoring and tracking, digital health info display for emergencies, alarms, notifications, reminders etc.. Heck my grandmother has alzheimer and I can think of a thousand ways something like this could help her




thank you, dear boy.

when the cat & i are trembling old folks living in the nursing home, we shall remember you & the gobster with utmost gratitude.

i for one shall be popping off option trades on my _watch_ that would make you blush. It'll be one item the geriatric police won't be able to take away from us.


----------



## kcowan

I just think one function will not migrate to the watch and that is taking photos. Are there any others?


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## andrewf

Watching video. Viewing images. Reading text. Barely anything, really .


----------



## GOB

kcowan said:


> I just think one function will not migrate to the watch and that is taking photos. Are there any others?


Agreed. The smart watch should not be a smartphone replacement, but an item that adds a lot of convenience. 

Apple is the only one positioning and advertising the smart watch in the correct way. Take a look at this cringeworthy ad and it's no wonder why the category is doing so poorly. 






And people say the Apple Watch is for douchebags...:biggrin:


----------



## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> thank you, dear boy.
> 
> when the cat & i are trembling old folks living in the nursing home, we shall remember you & the gobster with utmost gratitude.


after we get caught stealing batteries because ... "all the old people do it" :biggrin:


----------



## fatcat

here is the zenbook in the real world for $699
8 gigs ram - fanless - 256 gb ssd - bang & olufsen audio - solid aluminum - 13.3 hd display
$699 ... ouch
http://www.microsoftstore.com/store...-Signature-Edition-Laptop/productID.313303100


----------



## GOB

Some data points on a recent survey...



> A Cowen survey of 3K smartphone owners - 1K apiece in the U.S. and China, and 500 apiece in the U.K. and Japan - found nearly 20% of the 1,500 respondents who owned an iPhone 6/6+ (NASDAQ:AAPL) stating "their new device replaced a competitor’s smartphone, of which ~83% were Android." Another 5% said the 6/6+ was their first smartphone.
> 
> Android defections were particularly strong in China, where 30% of 6/6+ owners said they replaced an Android phone - Apple's Greater China sales were up 70% Y/Y in calendar Q4. The figure was 14% in Japan, 9% in the U.K., and 8% in the U.S.
> 
> Also: 42% of the 1,500 respondents who plan to buy an iPhone 6/6+ in the next 12 months own a non-Apple smartphone, with 85% owning an Android device. Meanwhile, nearly 50% of those who have bought one upgraded early.
> 
> Regarding Apple Watch, the survey found 55% of respondents indicating "a positive purchase intention," and 28% indicating neutral purchase intent. With 3/4 of respondents expecting battery life to be above 1 day (as compared with the official 18 hours under normal use), Cowen sees battery life as a near-term limitation. The firm has also reported initially supplies could be low.
> 
> IDC assigned the iPhone a 19.7% Q4 unit share to Android's 76.6%; revenue share is likely above 40%. More than a few observers have argued the arrival of 4.7" and 5.5" iPhones could win over some Android users who prefer larger-screened devices.


Generally very bullish. I remain confident this is a $175+ stock not too long from now.


----------



## sags

In Ontario it is illegal to hold a device. I wonder what the law would be on wearing the device on your wrist.


----------



## Terminator

http://pocketnow.com/2015/03/23/apple-watch-manufacturing-cuts

Some interesting news on the watch. Apple says that it will miss it's target 3 million units per month by 50% and only deliver 1.5 million. Another market ploy perhaps? It'll be interesting to see what the stock price does in the following weeks from the release. Rumors of a second generation watch already being talked about with a release date by this years end just adds to the drama too.


----------



## GOB

Terminator said:


> http://pocketnow.com/2015/03/23/apple-watch-manufacturing-cuts
> 
> Some interesting news on the watch. Apple says that it will miss it's target 3 million units per month by 50% and only deliver 1.5 million. Another market ploy perhaps? It'll be interesting to see what the stock price does in the following weeks from the release. Rumors of a second generation watch already being talked about with a release date by this years end just adds to the drama too.


Apple is not saying anything. This is a rumour coming out of Asia. Nobody knows how many units Apple is planning, nor do they know if there are yield issues. I read another article denouncing this rumour saying that though supply will be limited, it is nothing unexpected to management.

These rumours are pretty much par for the course on any Apple product launch.


----------



## GOB

Forgive me for not being too worried about the latest offerings from OnePlus or Motorola or anyone else, but history has been quite clear: 

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/16-smartphones-that-were-deemed-iphone-killer-114506321304.html


----------



## Just a Guy

Surprised you haven't posted this one yet...

http://ophirgottlieb.tumblr.com/post/114555207104/apple-is-crushing-its-competitors-in


----------



## GOB

Forgot about that one, thanks


----------



## indexxx

Hilarious!


----------



## indexxx

Latest move:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-plan-crush-rivals-boost-150317241.html


----------



## GOB

Earnings will be reported on April 27. Should be another very strong quarter despite major currency headwinds. I expect iPhone sales to be huge again given demand and Chinese New Year sales. Apple may also comment on the first weekend of Apple Watch sales, which can potentially move the stock. A million? Two million? Silence? It will be interesting to say the least. A dividend increase and an update to the buyback program will also be announced, so there will be a ton of information to sort through. 

The stock has been in the doldrums for a while now so I'm looking to earnings to provide fuel for the next leg up.


----------



## fatcat

interesting article about the watch in wired: http://www.wired.com/2015/04/the-apple-watch/?mbid=nl_040215

it is designed to essentially make it easier to not look at the your phone every minute of the day by making it easier to respond or not respond to texts and calls

the writer ends by gushing about the fact that during his interview with the project manager (of the apple watch) he never once looked at his phone ... apparently because the watch told him not to via its "haptic touch"

no doubt for some people this will be useful

but i couldn't help wondering "why doesn't the guy just take the meeting and not look at his phone" ?

apparently we are now so married to our phones that we can no longer engage in any activity without checking our phones every other minute

and the watch will save us from this by filtering the information out for us ... the obvious question is: won't we just become slaves to our watch instead of our phone and isn't the real answer to learn to put the phone down ?

it is a very high-wire act that apple is walking here ... it might work, it might not

when they sell one for $300 that works without the iphone, i might be in


----------



## humble_pie

GOB said:


> ... The stock has been in the doldrums for a while now so I'm looking to earnings to provide fuel for the next leg up.



when the cat's in the doldrums the options mice come out to play

never a dull moment


----------



## Just a Guy

If only my other holding were in such similar "doldrums"... Up by double digits over the year...


----------



## kcowan

fatcat said:


> the writer ends by gushing about the fact that during his interview with the project manager (of the apple watch) he never once looked at his phone ... apparently because the watch told him not to via its "haptic touch"


Great. Create a device that enslaves much of the population (iPhone) then free the rich ones with another device. Brilliant. And I believe that the iWatch release 7 will not need a phone. We are looking at the future of computing here. Plus an amazing market strategy.


----------



## andrewf

A wrist-sized computer will always trail a phone sized computer in performance and battery life, just as a phone-sized computer will trail a laptop/desktop. This is inherent. Sure, some can be offloaded to the cloud, but user interface for a watch is a pretty poor substitute for a phone.


----------



## humble_pie

my theory is that sub-clinical radiation from the handsets held to the ears will have caused enough memory damage that an aging cohort of iPhone users will need watch reminders to tell them what they are supposed to be doing each & every day


----------



## fatcat

kcowan said:


> Great. Create a device that enslaves much of the population (iPhone) then free the rich ones with another device. Brilliant. And I believe that the iWatch release 7 will not need a phone. We are looking at the future of computing here. Plus an amazing market strategy.


apple are brilliant marketers, the best ... there have been several articles that says exactly what you say in your first sentence 

this is exactly what the apple watch does, it is a device that is designed to free you from another device without, at the same time, enslaving you to the second device ... i don't get it, i honestly don't

i have no doubt there will be lines and sellouts ... what i wonder about is how the normals and non-geeks will react



> *pie said:* my theory is that sub-clinical radiation from the handsets held to the ears will have caused enough memory damage that an aging cohort of iPhone users will need watch reminders to tell them what they are supposed to be doing each & every day


 in all seriousness, i have been looking for an inexpensive watch that doesn't need to pair with a phone that will allow me to just take audio notes during the day

i'm not anti-watch at all, there just is no way i want to own another device that i need to charge and manage every freaking day


----------



## donald

Does this mean in the next couple years instead of people in restaurants all looking down at phones they will also be doing the wrist look(the dual tech dance)
I can't wait lol
Christ everybody has their head down already(it's comical almost)
I honestly missed the "old" days
When a phone was a phone and a watch was a watch!
Bring back the rotary with the spiral cord!


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

donald said:


> Does this mean in the next couple years instead of people in restaurants all looking down at phones they will also be doing the wrist look (the dual tech dance). I can't wait lol. Christ everybody has their head down already(it's comical almost). I honestly missed the "old" days. When a phone was a phone and a watch was a watch! Bring back the rotary with the spiral cord!


Love it! We were at a restaurant recently and the whole family (mom, dad, son, daughter) were all doing the 'dummy duck'. It looked like they all had broken necks. The only time they looked up was when their meals came. A special night out for the family no doubt. A least they didn't have hats to leave on at the table as well


----------



## GOB

We are too far along to change societal behaviour when it comes to smartphones so I don't think complaining about it is really relevant to this thread. What the Apple Watch will do is significantly enhance convenience to the individual. And yes, this will have the knock-on effect of reducing the number of times the iPhone is taken out of the pocket. And I have no doubt that in a few years the Apple Watch will be a must-have health monitoring device. Yes, there will be competitors as always but Apple's leadership, ecosystem and stance on privacy will make it the device of choice. They didn't hire all those experts just to count calories. Think long term, people.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Ok, I won't complain about the dummy duckers, but I will say that the Apple Watch will never be a "must-have". It will be a "must want", or a "but everyone else seems to have one". But that doesn't make it a necessity.


----------



## GOB

I mean "must-have" in the same way an iPod or iPhone was - obviously not a matter of life or death. Really nothing but water and basic nutrition is if you think of it that way. 

In other news...



> The latest smartphone sales data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech for the three months ending in February 2015 shows that Apple’s iOS sales have reached an all-time high in urban China where it captured 27.6% of the smartphone market.


Looking for another big iPhone number on the 27th - possibly over 60M.


----------



## fatcat

i have no doubt that smart watches will be a growing category along with other wearables
it may well evolve and be like texts are to email and phone calls .. i.e people often prefer to text over email or phoning
the watch may occupy a similar niche

i do have my doubts about health monitoring since we know that most people still prefer to eat hearty and excercise, not so much
health monitoring, at the moment appeals to type-a go getters and they are a minority
this will probably slowly change over time and whether apple is winner remains to be seen

there are other watches specifically devoted to health

we may well end up with dozens or likely hundreds of watches that have specialties that appeals to different needs
which will marry with many operating systems or work independently

as to apple being the device of choice, we have a way to go, the total cost of owning an advanced iphone plus the watch is not small
it remains to be seen whether the phone/watch combo will draw enough buyers

a small group will go wild over it and we will see lines and demand
but whether it expands out to the normals remains to be seen

in any event apple wants to be an upscale luxury brand and that might not be important to them


----------



## GOB

Define small group? Just curious about how many Apple Watches you expect will be sold.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Define small group? Just curious about how many Apple Watches you expect will be sold.


well, these are rough numbers ...

in 2014 there were roughly 1.2 billion smartphones sold worldwide and there were roughly 4 million smartwatches sold

so we can say that 1 out of every 300 smartphone buyers bought a smartwatch

so i would expect that 1 or 2 of every "watch eligible" user will buy one .. what that number might be i have no idea

"watch eligible" would mean owning a 5, 5C, 5S or 6 iphone ... correct ?

what is the total number of these handsets in use at present ?


----------



## GOB

I'm not sure exaclty but let's say 400M. So you expect 1-2%, in a year? That would be 8 million on the high end of your estimate. I think you might be surprised. Not that 8 million is a small number for a brand new high margin product, but I (and I think Apple) expect more. I wouldn't be surprised if there are 8 million people who are waiting to get it on Day 1. I'm thinking 15-20 million of Gen 1 and then a big jump for the next generation device. 

Unfortunately, Apple is not planning to report unit sales at this point in time, but hopefully we'll be able to estimate based on earnings and the other products that they do report.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> I'm not sure exaclty but let's say 400M. So you expect 1-2%, in a year? That would be 8 million on the high end of your estimate. I think you might be surprised. Not that 8 million is a small number for a brand new high margin product, but I (and I think Apple) expect more. I wouldn't be surprised if there are 8 million people who are waiting to get it on Day 1. I'm thinking 15-20 million of Gen 1 and then a big jump for the next generation device.
> 
> Unfortunately, Apple is not planning to report unit sales at this point in time, but hopefully we'll be able to estimate based on earnings and the other products that they do report.


apple has roughly 12% of the worldwide market of smartphones of about 1.6 billion users

that is 192 million users of which roughly 1/3 use phones which are not iphone eligible (i.e. 4 and 4S)

so that means that roughly 130 million iphone users are apple watch eligible (i.e they are using 5 and above)

if we get say 2% purchase rate we are looking at 2.6 million watches sold

if get a 5% purchase rate we are looking at 6.5 million watches sold

so to sell 6.5 million watches 1 out of every 20 iphone users will have to buy a watch

that is a tall mountain to climb


----------



## GOB

Your numbers are so far off, where on earth are you getting them from?! Apple sold 74 million iPhones last quarter, the vast majority being iPhone 6/6 Plus. Tim Cook is on record saying that the percentage of people who upgraded is in the "low teens". Using 65M iPhone 6/6+ sold as of the end of 2014, and 15% upgrade rate, basic math tells us the iPhone install base is at least 430M. If the rate was 12% it would mean 542M. Your numbers aren't anywhere near reality. Now add another 3 months of iPhone sales since those figures (at least 50M). 

iPhone 5/5s/5c/6/6 Plus obviously represents the vast majority of the userbase, since they are the newest and best selling devices over the last three years. 400M is a reasonable estimate and might even be low. Your 130M estimate is accurate - if you are only counting devices sold in the last six months. 

What you are claiming is that Apple sold more than 1/3 of their entire user base last quarter. Simply absurd, sorry.


----------



## fatcat

i checked my stats again and see we are both wrong

Smartphone Users Worldwide Will Total 1.75 Billion in 2014
http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Smartphone-Users-Worldwide-Will-Total-175-Billion-2014/1010536

Smartphone users worldwide is 1.44 billion
http://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number-of-smartphone-users-worldwide/

Smartphone users worldwide is 1.6 billion
http://dazeinfo.com/2014/12/18/worldwide-smartphone-users-2014-2018-forecast-india-china-usa-report/

so here we have 3 different estimates, lets take the one in the middle: 1.6 billion users

IDC (the most commonly cited research firm for smartphone research and sales) estimates apple's share of the smartphone market worldwide at about 19%
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25037214

19% of 1.6 billion = 300 million

roughly a 1/3 of iphone users can't buy an apple watch (at present, obviously that number will change) so that means there are roughly 200 million users who can even use an apple watch

a 5% purchase rate gives 10 million units sold ... a 2% purchase rate means 4 million units sold

if the iphone install base was 430 million you would have an iphone user base of 25% of worldwide users and that number is off

be *careful to distinguish between units shipped and operating systems in use which is the number that matters* ... 19% of users worldwide use ios ... 76% of worldwide smartphone users use android who can't buy an apple watch

obviously the much talked about 10 million number is based on a 5% purchase rate worldwide

that means 1 out of 20 iphone users will need to purchase an apple watch to make these numbers ... it is certainly possible ... apple is planning to make about 20 million watches for 2015 so they are obviously very positive on the watch

this article says 1 in 10 iphone users plan to buy a watch:http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...e-inc-sell-24-million-apple-watches-in-2.aspx

without a doubt apple is constraining supply at first to create demand and makes it look desirable

the two most critical things will be returns and reviews .. if reviews are good and returns are low then it will be a hit

i wouldn't want to have to deal with every day charging and tethering to an iphone, that to me is a deal killer and makes little sense

if i could buy one to replace a phone i would probably put up with the charging since no doubt they will have wireless charging soon enough (if they don't already, i don't know)


----------



## GOB

You can't seriously believe there are only 300M iPhones in use today...you are going about your calculation entirely wrong. Instead of putting together number that are pure guesses (and often proven to be inaccurate), why don't we use real numbers. 

Assuming 55M iPhones sold from Jan-Mar 2015, Apple has shipped 449M iPhones since Q1 2013, the launch of the iPhone 5. Aside from my assumption (the real number will vary +/- a few million) that number is fact. So what you are implying is that 150M iPhone 5/5c/5s/6/6 Plus, or 33%, have been trashed and are no longer in use. Considering the fact that an iPhone 5 can still fetch about $200 on the resale market today, does this make any sense to you? I sure hope not. This also implies that any iPhone sold before Q12013 (271M units) has also been trashed. Or to look at it another way, since it was recently announced that Apple sold their 700 millionth iPhone, if your number is correct over 55% of iPhones sold are no longer used . 

I also think your assumption that 1/3 of iPhones are more than 2.5 years old is also on the high side, but I can't easily prove that. But the user base is much closer to 500M than it is to 300M - that I am sure of. Your analysis flies in the face of hard data and numbers that Tim Cook has publicly vocalized. 



> Keith Bachman, BMO: More left with the installed base. “The most interesting comment from the call was that only a fraction of the installed base had upgraded to new iPhones. If we assume that the last 10 quarters of iPhones sold through the September quarter equates to the iPhone installed base, this would suggest a 375 million user base. Management commented that only a small “teens %” had upgraded to the iPhone 6 family. If we apply 12%, this would suggest about 45 million of users had upgraded, whereas we believe that iPhone 6 sales since inception are closer to 75-80 million units. Hence, we if applied a 12% ratio to an assumed figure of 75 million iPhone 6 sales since inception, this would suggest a user base of closer to 625 million. We don’t think this is an academic exercise, since we think the size of the installed base is important to yield future growth of iPhones.


----------



## fatcat

alright let me try again

you see the links to global smartphone usage ? ... we can take the middle number and assume that around 1.6 smartphones are in use worldwide

once again IDC, a very well respected and well cired research firms says:



> In Q4 2013, according to research firm IDC, Google's Android mobile operating system had a 78% share of all users globally. *Apple's iOS had just 18%.* Now, IDC predicts that in 2014 Android will claim 80.2% of users and only 14.8% will be on Apple's iOS system. Mobile app revenue is growing faster on Android than Apple, also, according to Distimo. It's the same situation — Android growing faster — in mobile ads, according to Opera Mediaworks.
> 
> Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-v-android-market-share-2014-5#ixzz3WK4TRrVV


18% of 1.6 billion is roughly 288 million .. lets call it 300 million of which about 1/3 don't use iphone 5 or above

that means that 200 million people worldwide use iphone eligible phones

forget shipped phones, look at phones in use by operating system, a much more reliable metric ... 

look at the idc links

if apple sells 1 person in 20 a watch they will sell 10 million watches ... certainly a possible number


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

GOB & Fatcat - I'm reading your exhaustive discussion via laptop. I have to ask - are you posting via your smartphones? I would have suffered irreparable _texting thumb_ by now


----------



## GOB

Sorry, fatcat, you're simply wrong. Use common sense. Apple has sold 130-140M iPhones *in the last 6 months alone.*You can't possibly believe that the last 6 months of sales represents half of the entire userbase for a product that has an subsidy upgrade cycle of 2 years and a device lifecycle of 4+. Your numbers will be laughed at by anyone who follows Apple seriously. There must be something wrong with your source numbers or the way you are interpreting them. Again, it is a *fact* that Apple has sold over 700M iPhones, the vast majority of which are iPhone 5 and up. What you are saying is that over 400M iPhones, most of which would be functional today and supported by the latest OS, are no longer being used. It's completely absurd, end of story. 

You are also indirectly implying that Tim Cook lied in his conference call to investors - a serious offense. If the userbase was 300M (less before iPhone 6) then well over 20% would have had to upgrade to iPhone 6 in order to reach the sales numbers - not low teens as Cook said. I choose to believe Tim Cook and basic common sense over a few estimated numbers jumbled together to produce an nonsensical result. 

Also, IDC and Gartner may be well respected by some, but history has shown they get it wrong more often than not when it comes to Apple. That's why when I present data from them I usually preface it by warning people to take it with a grain of salt, and look at the trends rather than the actual figures.

Posted from my iPhone :biggrin:


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Sorry, fatcat, you're simply wrong. Use common sense. Apple has sold 130-140M iPhones *in the last 6 months alone.*You can't possibly believe that the last 6 months of sales represents half of the entire userbase for a product that has an subsidy upgrade cycle of 2 years and a device lifecycle of 4+. Your numbers will be laughed at by anyone who follows Apple seriously. There must be something wrong with your source numbers or the way you are interpreting them. Again, it is a *fact* that Apple has sold over 700M iPhones, the vast majority of which are iPhone 5 and up. What you are saying is that over 400M iPhones, most of which would be functional today and supported by the latest OS, are no longer being used. It's completely absurd, end of story.
> 
> You are also indirectly implying that Tim Cook lied in his conference call to investors - a serious offense. If the userbase was 300M (less before iPhone 6) then we'll over 20% would have had to upgrade to iPhone 6 in order to reach the sales numbers - not low teens as Cook said. I choose to believe Tim Cook and basic common sense over a few estimated numbers jumbled together to produce an nonsensical result.
> 
> Also, IDC and Gartner may be well respected by some, but history has shown they get it wrong more often than not when it comes to Apple. That's why when I present data from them I usually preface it by warning people to take it with a grain of salt, and look at the trends rather than the actual figures.
> 
> Posted from my iPhone :biggrin:


you are of course looking at the sales trends because you want to look at the sales trends because the sales trends make you feel warm and fuzzy but the sales trends say nothing about actual phone users in the here and now ... 

measurement of mobile operating systems which is easy to do is a more accurate and reliable metric

700 million iphones sold (in totality and since 2007) says nothing about current usage ... that number includes upgrades, trade-ins, broken phones, phones not in use, second phones etc etc

*sales trends are not nearly as useful as actual phones in use
*
idc is well respected research firm and their numbers are solid

nevertheless, you should make up numbers that make you feel good because i want you to sleep well and soundly on that giant pile of apple stock and why shouldn't you ?

you will be most pleased to know i'm thinking of buying a refurb ipad mini ... 

i'm doin my bit, i'm not some _android slacker_ man (other then my moto-g of course) :cower:

ps. i have decided to annoint you the pope of this thread ...hereafter you only need issue edicts, pronouncements and proclamations ... any actual fact that bangs too hard against the armour of your apple-love may be disregarded summarily

let us sally forth and hold the flag high ... this is a great day

View attachment 4130


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## GOB

Man, you are ridiculous. You don't have a clue about how to analyze data. The fact that you think there are only 300M iPhones in use is very telling that you don't have a clue about this market.

It's funny you're accusing me of cherry picking data when you are doing the exact same thing. Only difference is, the data I present lines up very well with the facts (iPhone sales), Tim Cook's own words, and common sense. So I obviously trust my sources more. Notice that two of your estimates are well over a year old, and the third is by "eMarketer"...forgive me if I'm skeptical. I also can't figure out why you're using 2014 numbers when we're well into 2015 and Apple is selling iPhones faster than they ever have...do those devices not count as part of today's installed base? Talk about selective data...the irony!










JP Morgan's Rod Hall estimates a smartphone install base of 3 billion, with iPhone at 15%. That's 450M - as of Sep 2014, so well over 500M now. This number makes much more sense, since well over a billion smartphones are sold annually now. A 1.6B install base is very low.

Another source, from an excellent well respected analyst (Horace Dediu of Asymco):












> BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk said that with more than 100 million active iPhone users in the United States and closer to *half a billion globally*,





> 800 million Android smartphones, *300 million iPhones in active use by December 2013*, study says


I guess I'm just seeing what I want to see...also known as the truth...


----------



## indexxx

I'm calling that the Apple Wealth Rainbow. And my shares are the pot 'o gold.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Man, you are ridiculous. You don't have a clue about how to analyze data. The fact that you think there are only 300M iPhones in use is very telling that you don't have a clue about this market.
> 
> It's funny you're accusing me of cherry picking data when you are doing the exact same thing. Only difference is, the data I present lines up very well with the facts (iPhone sales), Tim Cook's own words, and common sense. So I obviously trust my sources more. Notice that two of your estimates are well over a year old, and the third is by "eMarketer"...forgive me if I'm skeptical. I also can't figure out why you're using 2014 numbers when we're well into 2015 and Apple is selling iPhones faster than they ever have...do those devices not count as part of today's installed base? Talk about selective data...the irony!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> JP Morgan's Rod Hall estimates a smartphone install base of 3 billion, with iPhone at 15%. That's 450M - as of Sep 2014, so well over 500M now. This number makes much more sense, since well over a billion smartphones are sold annually now. A 1.6B install base is very low.
> 
> Another source, from an excellent well respected analyst (Horace Dediu of Asymco):
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I guess I'm just seeing what I want to see...also known as the truth...


lord have mercy, i'd give at least 2 shares of apple stock and a mint condition apple newton just to see you lighten up and demonstrate something resembling a sense of humour ... you got too much apple stock my friend ... take a deep breath


----------



## GOB

Lose an debate and then change the subject by complaining about me being uptight. Sorry to disappoint you, but I don't generally come to CMF for the humour. I see nothing amusing about the garbage analysis you posted, nor your comments about annointing me the pope of this thread...it's just not funny.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> Lose an debate and then change the subject by complaining about me being uptight. Sorry to disappoint you, but I don't generally come to CMF for the humour. I see nothing amusing about the garbage analysis you posted, nor your comments about annointing me the pope of this thread...it's just not funny.


all excellent points ... perhaps pope is an elevation somewhat above your capacity and comfort ... neverthless, it is widely acknowledged to be your thread and i would hate to see unorthodox apple views creep in

i am dethroning you as pope and appointing you _prefect of the sacred congregation for the doctrine of the faith_ ... said faith expressed lovingly in the holy syllables sung at all apple events -- "i be apple - apple be me"

you will of course be the popes (who is as yet unknown - though i am thinking of andrew as a kind of stealth-anti-christ-in-the-vatican move) right hand man and act as the enforcer, the virtual hand of tim cook/god (is "god" going to far on that one ... not sure ... let me know) right here on cmf ... 

i believe that by temperament (certainly by temperament) and your outsized investment in apple stock you are uniquely qualified to bring the hammer down when non-conformist or especially, anti-apple views are expressed in this thread

there will be no racking, no burning at the stake but i for one am filled to the brim with a holy tremor at the mere thought of seeing androidism wiped from the face of the earth by virtue of your steely resolve ... 

you are the man and you know it gob ... this is your time ... don't turn your back on us now ...

god, i do feel good ... it IS a new day ...


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Wow, hallelujah brother! May the apple never fall far from the tree.


----------



## jtc

GOB said:


> I also think your assumption that 1/3 of iPhones are more than 2.5 years old is also on the high side, but I can't easily prove that. But the user base is much closer to 500M than it is to 300M - that I am sure of. Your analysis flies in the face of hard data and numbers that Tim Cook has publicly vocalized.


Just for you cupcake. 42.85% of iphones are over 28 months old(That number estimated above is probably on the low side):

February 2011 - 100 million iphones sold (100 million iphones are at least 4 years old)
February 2012 - 200 million iphones sold (200 million iphones are at least 3 years old)
*December 2012 - 300 million iphones sold (300 million iphones are at least 2 years and 4 months old)*
July 2013 - 400 million iphones sold (400 million iphones are at least 1 year and 8 months old)
March 2014 - 500 million iphones sold (500 million iphones are at least 1 year old)
March 2015 - 700 million iphones sold (200 million iphones are less than a year old)

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrog...fare-apple-has-sold-its-500-millionth-iphone/


----------



## GOB

jtc said:


> Just for you cupcake. 42.85% of iphones are over 28 months old(That number estimated above is probably on the low side):
> 
> February 2011 - 100 million iphones sold (100 million iphones are at least 4 years old)
> February 2012 - 200 million iphones sold (200 million iphones are at least 3 years old)
> *December 2012 - 300 million iphones sold (300 million iphones are at least 2 years and 4 months old)*
> July 2013 - 400 million iphones sold (400 million iphones are at least 1 year and 8 months old)
> March 2014 - 500 million iphones sold (500 million iphones are at least 1 year old)
> March 2015 - 700 million iphones sold (200 million iphones are less than a year old)
> 
> Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrog...fare-apple-has-sold-its-500-millionth-iphone/


I don't understand what you're getting at. Sure, 42.85% of iPhones *sold* are that old, but a far lower percentage of iPhones *in use* are that old. The iPhone, iPhone 3G, 3GS and iPhone 4 have probably largely reached end-of-life. Obviously the 400M iPhones sold after December 2012 have a far greater likelihood of still being in use today...

Try to reconcile this data:










Assuming 55M iPhones sold in Jan-Mar 2015, 449M iPhones have been sold since the iPhone 5 was launched (Q1 2013 above), and given the product lifecycle (which is longer than the 2 year upgrade cycle), the vast majority of those would be in use today. Given that an iPhone 5 can be easily sold for $150-200+ today, it's not a stretch to say that virtually every iPhone sold (except for the few that will have been lost/broken) is still being used by somebody. So to say that only 200M of them are in use (under 50%) is just laughable. 

I don't know why I bother with this thread. The inability of people to interpret basic data is astounding.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> I don't know why I bother with this thread. The inability of people to interpret basic data is astounding.


lets face it ... you're knee deep in idiots

but what else can you expect when you shoulder the heavy yoke of righteousness ?

i weep for your suffering


----------



## indexxx

GOB said:


> I don't know why I bother with this thread. The inability of people to interpret basic data is astounding.


Don't cloud the issue with facts, GOB. It just confuses the masses. But you bother with this thread simply because you are trying to help.


----------



## Just a Guy

Help, like work and plan are all four letter words...

Some people were taught by their parents that four letter words are bad, and took it to the extreme.


----------



## brad

Despite very mixed early reviews of the Apple Watch, first-day orders have been so heavy that it's sold out for the next 4-6 weeks:

http://www.macworld.com/article/2908558/apple-watch-already-sold-out-until-june.html


----------



## supperfly17

Thats because they didnt make that many of them.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

brad said:


> Despite very mixed early reviews of the Apple Watch...


Not just the watch, ouch: http://www.zdnet.com/article/planned-to-order-apple-watch-reviews-other-watches-galaxy-s6-edge-killed-that-idea/


----------



## GOB

A new product category from Apple that's being met with harsh criticism and mockery? Wow, I'm so shocked. This must be a failure of a product and the end of Apple. Apple will be lucky to sell a few hundred of these. They must have only had 5 units of each model available to create the hype of a sell-out.


----------



## andrewf

I was reviewing the pricing structure, and I have to say it is pretty bananas. I have to wonder what kind of people will be buying the Watch. Particularly those looking at the models priced in the $700 - $1000 range. I guess Apple doesn't have to sell many, since their margins are going to be gigantic.


----------



## indexxx

Apple Pay in Canada

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-pay-plans-to-launch-in-canada-this-fall-2015-04-17


----------



## Siciliano698

GOB What do you think about the q2 earnings buyback and possible div increase coming out this Monday?


----------



## Toronto.gal

With so much cash, my guess would be at least 25% [$2.35], though there have been rumours of a 50% increase. Here's what GOB said back in Feb. regarding said rumour:



GOB said:


> It's certainly a possibility, but it would mean a significant reduction in the buyback. Apple's domestic cash is limited, even with the debt they're taking on. It's an interesting balance especially at these levels. While the stock is still highly undervalued, it's not the screaming buy it was at $60,$70,$80,90 etc. A buyback at $130 has a significantly smaller effect.
> 
> 50% boost would be great for my dividend growth goals. I'm thinking it'll probably be 15% along with a significant buyback plan. A larger boost may set up unrealistic expectations for next year's increase.
> 
> My prediction - 15% to $0.54 this year and 15% next year to $0.625 for an annual dividend of $2.50.


----------



## indexxx

Apple's killing it again.


----------



## GOB

I'm not interested in getting into circular arguments with people who simply don't understand, but I also want to keep contributing to this thread so I'll post my thoughts here for the people who are interested in hearing them. I will no longer let myself be goaded into replying to anything that's already been discussed ad nauseam.

I advise anyone serious about AAPL to listen to the conference call and/or read the notes in full:

http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.net/15pijnwpefvnohu04/event/index.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/310...k-on-q2-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript

There is a ton of critical information here, and anyone venturing opinions that conflict with the content here are doing themselves and everybody else a disservice. 

Notes/Thoughts:

- iPhone grows 40% overall amidst a market that grew 16%. Quite clearly, iPhones are increasing in popularity and so-called competitors are struggling to make a meaningful impact. Of course, there is now nothing left to innovate and Apple must have peaked right now, and next year will be the end (please note the sarcasm)
- Only 20% of the user base has upgraded to iPhone 6/6+. Do some grade school level math and you can arrive at a reasonably accurate estimate of user base. 80% of the base on older devices is indicative of continued massive iPhone sales, for the 6/6+ and the 6s/6s+ coming in a few months time.
- 71% revenue growth in the most important market, China, and 80-100% iPhone growth in Canada (found this one very surprising considering the already high iOS share)
- Android switcher rate at a 3 year high
- iPads continue to struggle although still many 1st time buyers and growth in China
- Guidance for current quarter is extremely strong. This is typically the weakest quarter and guidance is higher than Apple's second best quarter last year. High growth will continue.
- Apple Watch is severely supply constrained. Demand looks good but margins are expected to be low initially. Still questionable how much it will contribute to earnings in the next couple of quarters. It's a fantastic product and will follow the arc of smartphones in terms of going from a "want" to a "need" a few years down the road. Apple have already positioned themselves to dominate the industry profits for this category.
- 11% dividend raise, expanded shareholder return program to a total of $200B. Remaining buyback amount represents about 7% of the company float at current levels. Apple's cash position will continue to grow in spite of the amount they intend to spend on dividends/buybacks - simply unbelievable. 

Trailing P/E ~ 12 net of cash and debt, forward P/E close to 10. Company is growing EPS 40%. S&P has an 18 multiple and negative growth. Draw your own conclusions on this one.


----------



## Causalien

Wow, the samsung S6 edge looks amazing. I am going to consider it as my next phone vs iphone.


----------



## GOB

Nearing the end of the iPhone 6 cycle, and iOS share continues to grow:



> Apple's iPhone 6 and 6 Plus continue to convert Android users to iOS, with the Google OS' market share dropping in Europe's biggest five markets.
> 
> In the first quarter of 2015, iOS' share of sales climbed to 20.3 percent across Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, while Android fell to 68.4 percent, according to Kantar Worldpanel ComTech.
> 
> The figures show Europe has moved closer to the US for the proportion of users for each mobile OS: in the same period, Android grew to 58.1 percent of smartphone shipments in the US, while Apple declined slightly to 36.5 percent.
> 
> According to Kantar, in Great Britain Android's market share fell 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for 52.9 percent of all shipments. iOS climbed 6.9 percentage points over the same period to 38.1 percent, spurred by new users abandoning their Android phones: 25.6 percent of new iOS owners in Great Britain switched from an Android device, Kantar said. Meanwhile, Windows Phone sales also declined year on year by 1.2 percentage points to eight percent.
> 
> For those buyers that choose to stick with their Android device, price is becoming an increasing concern.
> 
> "Thirty-five percent of consumers who bought an Android smartphone in 1Q15 said their decision was driven by receiving a good price on the phone. Another 29 percent said that getting a good deal on the tariff/contract was a factor in their purchase," Dominic Sunnebo, business unit director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech Europe, said.





> China was another strong market for Apple, seeing iPhone share rise from 17.9 percent to 26.1 percent, even if it was still dwarfed by Android's 72 percent. Kantar remarked that China is now generating more iPhone volume than the U.S., partly because the product is beginning to sell to more than just the country's rich. In the March quarter, Apple accounted for 25 percent of smartphone sales among people making 2,000 to 4,000 yuan ($322 to $645) per month.


China is of particular interest as there are hundreds of millions of people coming up into the middle class. My premise that I've been talking about for years is playing out - Android is for price sensitive consumers and iOS is for those who want the best. I'm speaking generally of course - there are good Android devices and people do choose them for reasons other than price, but it's not the majority. iPhone is a position of extreme strength right now.


----------



## andrewf

More accurately, there are two segments of the Android market. There are mid-range and low-end phones (<$400), where Android has right around 100% share (Apple doesn't compete in this market, Windows phone runs a distant second). Then there is the premium segment, where Apple has much higher share than in overall smartphone market--probably in the neighbourhood of 50%. In this segment, Android is not necessarily competing on price.


----------



## GOB

Probably true, but when Android market share is reported as a whole, it only makes sense to look at the demographics as a whole. 65% are attracted by price, according to that survey. Not many companies survive a race to the bottom without compromising on quality. This further separates the two ecosystems and their reputation.


----------



## GOB

Icahn speaks...



> Dear Tim:
> 
> We again applaud you and the rest of management for Apple’s impressive operational performance and growth. It is truly impressive that, despite severe foreign exchange headwinds and massive growth in investment (in both R&D and SG&A), the company will still grow earnings by 40% this year, according to our forecast. After reflecting upon Apple’s tremendous success, we now believe Apple shares are worth $240 today. Apple is poised to enter and in our view dominate two new categories (the television next year and the automobile by 2020) with a combined addressable market of $2.2 trillion, a view investors don’t appear to factor into their valuation at all. We believe this may lead to a de facto short squeeze, as underweight actively managed mutual funds and hedge funds correct their misguided positions. To arrive at the value of $240 per share, we forecast FY2016 EPS of $12.00 (excluding net interest income), apply a P/E multiple of 18x, and then add $24.44 of net cash per share. Considering our forecast for 30% EPS growth in FY 2017 and our belief Apple will soon enter two new markets (Television and the Automobile) with a combined addressable market size of $2.2 trillion, we think a multiple of 18x is a very conservative premium to that of the overall market. Considering the massive scope of its growth opportunities and track record of dominating new categories, we actually think 18x will ultimately prove to be too conservative, especially since we view the market in general as having much lower growth prospects.


http://www.shareholderssquaretable.com/carl-icahn-issues-open-letter-to-tim-cook/


----------



## Vicjai

Regardless, its undeniable that AAPL has become a global phenomenon and culture and no telling where it can go from here. I think we have yet to see AAPL's true potential. Its definitely a stock to buy and hold for the next 20+ years. :biggrin:


----------



## brad

Really interesting article in the NY Times today about Android vs. iOS -- lots of mindblowing statistics:

Android is now the most popular operating system of any kind -- last year Android devices outsold iOS devices by a factor of five and outsold Windows devices by a factor of three. Half of all devices (computers, phones, tablets) sold today run Android.

Despite this dominance, profit in Android smartphone business declined by 44% in 2014.

About 75% of Google's ad revenue comes from iOS devices, not Android devices.

Lots of people are switching from Android to iOS, especially in China, where 29% of iPhone purchasers previously owned Android phones.


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/28/t...ead-for-android-despite-market-dominance.html


----------



## andrewf

It's interesting that linux has basically taken over the world. Basically it has conquered every market except desktop/laptop computing. Also interesting that most average users have no idea that this has happened.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> It's interesting that linux has basically taken over the world. Basically it has conquered every market except desktop/laptop computing. Also interesting that most average users have no idea that this has happened.


It'll be interesting to see what happens with Chromebooks in that regard (the Chrome OS also being based on Linux). Right now they are pretty limited, but I've been watching their development and there's a lot going on. The hardware is really cheap (very affordable laptops, and now even a USB stick-sized unit that can turn any TV into a Chrome computer) and unlike most computers the Chromebook improves over time as its operating system is updated almost daily, automatically.

It'll probably be a long time before Chrome OS becomes a force to be reckoned with, but it's already becoming very popular in schools, and when those kids grow up they might continue to use it.


----------



## dave2012

brad said:


> Really interesting article in the NY Times today about Android vs. iOS -- lots of mindblowing statistics:
> 
> Android is now the most popular operating system of any kind -- last year Android devices outsold iOS devices by a factor of five and outsold Windows devices by a factor of three. Half of all devices (computers, phones, tablets) sold today run Android.
> 
> Despite this dominance, profit in Android smartphone business declined by 44% in 2014.
> 
> About 75% of Google's ad revenue comes from iOS devices, not Android devices.
> 
> Lots of people are switching from Android to iOS, especially in China, where 29% of iPhone purchasers previously owned Android phones.
> 
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/28/t...ead-for-android-despite-market-dominance.html


Exactly what we see on our website. In April/May for example our iPhone to Android device ratio was a whooping 13 to 1 which explains why the majority of Google mobile ad revenue is from iOS. For whatever reason, Android users don't seem to use their phones for web browsing like iOS users do.


----------



## Arizona

Just sold 22 apple calls. Might take the rest of the day off, oh wait it's only 10:30!


----------



## Causalien

dave2012 said:


> Exactly what we see on our website. In April/May for example our iPhone to Android device ratio was a whooping 13 to 1 which explains why the majority of Google mobile ad revenue is from iOS. For whatever reason, Android users don't seem to use their phones for web browsing like iOS users do.


Because you can actually block ads on Android instead of a walled garden with apple where you will be force fed ads. Or apple users are just less tech savvy and don't know how to block.


----------



## GOB

Causalien said:


> Because you can actually block ads on Android instead of a walled garden with apple where you will be force fed ads. Or apple users are just less tech savvy and don't know how to block.


Or...iOS users use their devices more, as has been proven through numerous studies over many years. A good majority of Android users are looking for a feature phone replacement and just want the cheapest phone available for voice and text. Tech savvy, my ***. Many probably don't even have data plans. 

In general, iOS users are far more tech savvy with the exception of people in IT, who are tech savvy and largely prefer Android. A real tech savvy person wouldn't have price as first priority, or get drawn in my useless specs like full HD screen and 8 core processing that make the device slow and kill battery life. I find it hilarious when people raving about their Galaxy S4 can barely put together a text message a year later because their phone lags so much. This has happened with three different people I know. 

Nobody I know with an Android uses an ad blocker. I highly doubt the small number of people who do significantly affect results of studies like this one. 

P.S. iOS9 will allow ad blocking. Should have been done long ago, I agree.


----------



## Arizona

Dropped to $120 today. Screaming buy buy BUY!
If this stock drops to $118 tomorrow I'm selling organs to buy more stock!


----------



## avrex

lol.
I agree. A great value buy.


----------



## brad

More news on Apple smartphone profit share versus market share:

http://9to5mac.com/2015/07/13/apple-smartphone-profit-share/

Apple takes 92% of smartphone market profits despite having just 20% of sales.


----------



## avrex

AAPL *down 7%* after-hours as the company provided a lower-than-expected outlook for the current three-month period.


----------



## fatcat

it's the watch which is looking to be a long slow slog

the iphone success has two sides to it:

1) it's a phenomenally profitable product
2) the company virtually hangs on that single product which sells into markets that are becoming saturated with cellphones and even china growth is slowing

apple pay, apple music and apple watch are all just so-so products which have either stiff competition (spotify) so-so competition (all the apple pay competitors) or, in the case of the watch, a large case to be made for the usefulness of the watch in the first place

both ipads and pc's are still selling but, in the case of the ipad facing upgrade resistance and in the case of the pc facing saturation and competition from other form factors

apple walks a very high wire act based on its record of innovation but their capacity to continue to innovate is a big question mark

their ability to stoke iphone sales in emerging markets will be critical i believe


----------



## Just a Guy

While this is geared specifically at Apple, I think it applies to the market in general (which the article implies). Personally, I've always said the markets are manipulated at least in the short term, so that the only way to beat this kind of thing is buy and hold past the manipulation.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2015/07/24/why_apple_s_stock_dropped

I'd point out that, like the analysts mentioned in this article, all of the opinions expressed on this board are, likewise, made by people not involved with the company so they really have no clue as to what is really happening with it. Their opinions are just that, opinions and uninformed, unsubstantiated ones at that (both the pro and con opinions).


----------



## indexxx

Personally I wouldn't listen to a single word that pompous blowhard published.


----------



## MrMatt

brad said:


> More news on Apple smartphone profit share versus market share:
> 
> http://9to5mac.com/2015/07/13/apple-smartphone-profit-share/
> 
> Apple takes 92% of smartphone market profits despite having just 20% of sales.


who cares how much of the markets profits they make (if you could actually quantify that) 
A number of companies make money on every phone sold simply because they own the patents on the underlying technology.
Samsung makes profit on every iPhone sold because they sell Apple the components!

You've got to look at each company and their situation, Apple sells a lot of phones at insane margins. They're a buy.
IMO the situation relative to Android is somewhat irrelevant, I'm not buying Samsung.

Google (which I also own) makes money from a number of sources, including iPhone, other than the risk that Apple could block them, I don't see how that really matters.
Google is a bit more expensive, but again I think they're a buy.


----------



## Just a Guy

indexxx said:


> Personally I wouldn't listen to a single word that pompous blowhard published.


Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Maybe try reading the article, it's mostly a quote from someone else...

Or were you talking about me? I could understand that.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> I'd point out that, like the analysts mentioned in this article, all of the opinions expressed on this board are, likewise, made by people not involved with the company so they really have no clue as to what is really happening with it. Their opinions are just that, opinions and uninformed, unsubstantiated ones at that (both the pro and con opinions).


but of course this is true for 99% of everything on this board and what comes out of analysts a'holes ... most of us are clueless about what is really happening inside td bank or coke or apple or suncor etc etc ... all of the giant corporations are black holes of number manipulation and sleight of hand accounting ... we all know what CFO's can do to the books ... that's why we should all diversify widely and never hold more than a reasonable amount in any one company

my concern about apple is simple, they are a one trick pony, they hang their hat on a single product, the iphone ... incredibly profitable and strong though it is, that should give anyone pause who old enough to have seen all the one trick pony technology companies get creamed by innovation

in most other areas beside the iphone, apple is a good (ipad and laptop) to average (music, apple pay) competitor ... the watch is semi-flop, it may be the best watch but no one other than geeks wants a watch to sit 2 feet away from an iphone, it will be a decade long costly slog to make the watch a success, whatever success might mean ... forget the sales numbers, read what users are saying about it, even skilled technologists can figure out how to use it

their ipad sales are stalled because users won't upgrade and laptop sales while increasing slightly are a product in a worldwide declining market .. people don't want to own pc's

and a much bigger and not talked about problem for apple is their web services platform which is awful, really, really bad ... siri is awful and they have no search and they don't have the data that google has to create the wet-dream of smart contextual notifications and predictive ai for the user


----------



## indexxx

Just a Guy said:


> Or were you talking about me? I could understand that.


LOL:biggrin: no I'm just not a Limbaugh fan!


----------



## Just a Guy

You say they are a one trick pony, then go on to list a number of areas where they generate income. Sure, not as high as from the iPhone, but still usually higher than the competitors in the industry. iPods make money more than any other music player, laptops are growing in sales when the overall market is in decline, music they are the leader in saless. The iPad has no real reason to upgrade...the slight weight difference between the air and the air 2 isn't a significant reason to upgrade, their older products work just fine and apple doesn't force people to upgrade ever cycle (maybe it's one of the reasons people like apple products), even still it's the dominant product we could go on and on. Face it, your "one trick pony" dominates in multiple markets.

As for the watch flop, by Apple's own admission they sold more than the original release of the iPod and the iPhone. Were they considered flops when they first came out? If not, then why is a product that sold more in the same period considered one? Is it a great product, not in my opinion, but I didn't like the original iPod or iPhone either...I waited a few generations before buying one of them. Oh, and they have sold the most in this new market area as well...

You don't like them, I get that. Will they continue to make tons of money into the future, probably not unless they come out with new stuff, but your arguement is way off, even your own examples show it.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> You say they are a one trick pony, then go on to list a number of areas where they generate income. Sure, not as high as from the iPhone, but still usually higher than the competitors in the industry. iPods make money more than any other music player, laptops are growing in sales when the overall market is in decline, music they are the leader in sales. The iPad has no real reason to upgrade...the slight weight difference between the air and the air 2 isn't a significant reason to upgrade, their older products work just fine and apple doesn't force people to upgrade ever cycle (maybe it's one of the reasons people like apple products), even still it's the dominant product we could go on and on. Face it, your "one trick pony" dominates in multiple markets.
> 
> As for the watch flop, by Apple's own admission they sold more than the original release of the iPod and the iPhone. Were they considered flops when they first came out? If not, then why is a product that sold more in the same period considered one? Is it a great product, not in my opinion, but I didn't like the original iPod or iPhone either...I waited a few generations before buying one of them. Oh, and they have sold the most in this new market area as well...
> 
> You don't like them, I get that. Will they continue to make tons of money into the future, probably not unless they come out with new stuff, but your argument is way off, even your own examples show it.


for the record i own and use: an iphone 5c (as an emergency phone mainly) an ipod touch (which i will not upgrade) and ipad air (which i will not upgrade) an ipad mini (which i might upgrade) and a mac mini which i will not upgrade

i will never buy an apple watch (unless i can make phone calls and ditch the watch then i am all in on one) i will never use apple pay or apple music

having said that, i think apple makes excellent products but they absolutely depend on a single product, the iphone ... in all those other areas, they have a tenuous lead and products that are being challenged by excellent alternatives ... spotify in music, many different watches, smaller and lighter tablets, apple pay is beginning to see serious competition

you say apple doesn't force people to upgrade yet they are denying me the right to have split screen apps merely because i don't have an ipad air 2, they absolutely do force people to upgrade as anyone who uses an iphone on ios8 will tell you and which runs like sludge on older hardware

in the end we can all see apple thorough different lenses, you see a dominant company sitting on piles of cash, i see a company who valuation is derived from innovation and that innovation is clearly stalled and may be flatlining .. i see that as a huge problem for them

and you haven't mentioned web services, a huge and important arena to cement customer ecosystem loyalty which on apple by any possible measure is just utter crap: iCloud, siri, photos, itunes match, maps are just awful and are years behind google and even microsoft

apple has the cash to catch up but it will still be a long slog


----------



## Just a Guy

Don't forget they have no presence in pharmasuticals, or food production, they don't do oil either...my god the company is doomed!!! How will they survive. How many industries do you need them
To dominate? Google is by far closer to a one trick pony with most of its revenue derived from advertising. The majority of their product lose money as opposed to apple where they generate profits (but not enough in your opinion). 

Again, I don't think apple is perfect, in fact I think the valuation is high so I wouldn't buy at this point, but I also think the stock isn't going to tumble.


----------



## andrewf

Just a Guy said:


> You don't like them, I get that. Will they continue to make tons of money into the future, probably not unless they come out with new stuff, but your arguement is way off, even your own examples show it.


Apple is iPhone currently, and they are valued at a low enough multiple that that is okay, as long as iPhone stays healthy for the next few years. I don't think they have any prospective categories to replace iPhone it that business weakens. Watch wont do it. TV won't do it. I can't see them scaling a car business quickly enough to do it.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Don't forget they have no presence in pharmasuticals, or food production, they don't do oil either...my god the company is doomed!!! How will they survive. How many industries do you need them
> To dominate? Google is by far closer to a one trick pony with most of its revenue derived from advertising. The majority of their product lose money as opposed to apple where they generate profits (but not enough in your opinion).
> 
> Again, I don't think apple is perfect, in fact I think the valuation is high so I wouldn't buy at this point, but I also think the stock isn't going to tumble.


i own both apple and google and microsoft in QQQ ... i love that etf and want to buy more

apple is a fine company, not going anywhere soon but their stock price has a baked in "innovation expectation" which is not a small number and i don't think they are innovating like they used to ... that's my main point but yes, they are a very strong company

what happens if ... just if ... iphone sales start to slow ? ... i think investors will start to get the willies


----------



## kcowan

I agree that Apple is very dependent on continued iPhone sales in ROW, and upgrades here. I have a 4S and am hanging on because it has 32GB. DW has a 5 with 16 GB so we are paying $1/mo for 20 GB oh iCloud photo storage shared by both phones. It is pretty amazing as we both take photos and see them pretty quickly.


----------



## Just a Guy

fatcat said:


> what happens if ... just if ... iphone sales start to slow ? ... i think investors will start to get the willies


Well, if we look back at when they introduced the IPod (which initially sold less than the Watch, so it must have been a flop) I believe people asked the same about the iMac sales.

Then, as Apple released the iPhone (which initially sold less than the watch, so it must have been a flop) I believe people asked the same about the iPod sales. 

Of course, the iPad sales are slumping...still profitable, but slumping, Apple generates revenues from numerous other (lesser) streams (diversified income which you seem to want) but, because they have numerous grand slam home runs you predict doom and gloom...

Apple is a very healthy company, with multiple revenue streams, yes they are a potential victim of their own success and they probably can't continue to come out with new hits forever...but that's not the same thing.

P.S. Apple does tend to encourage upgrades, but I find it's a 3 generation cycle, not an every generation cycle like other companies.


----------



## andrewf

Apple is not priced for growth. All you need to feel comfortable owning the stock now is confidence they can maintain sales and profitability of iPhone for the next few years. I'm not optimistic about any of their new categories meaningfully reducing their reliance on iPhone, but I'm not pessimistic about iPhone sales and margin for the next few years.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Well, if we look back at when they introduced the IPod (which initially sold less than the Watch, so it must have been a flop) I believe people asked the same about the iMac sales.
> 
> Then, as Apple released the iPhone (which initially sold less than the watch, so it must have been a flop) I believe people asked the same about the iPod sales.
> 
> Of course, the iPad sales are slumping...still profitable, but slumping, Apple generates revenues from numerous other (lesser) streams (diversified income which you seem to want) but, because they have numerous grand slam home runs you predict doom and gloom...
> 
> Apple is a very healthy company, with multiple revenue streams, yes they are a potential victim of their own success and they probably can't continue to come out with new hits forever...but that's not the same thing.
> 
> P.S. Apple does tend to encourage upgrades, but I find it's a 3 generation cycle, not an every generation cycle like other companies.


we really disagree on this point, i see the iphone as the backbone of the company and the primary support for the stock price along with expectations for further innovations

to the degree that apple can extend iphone sales out further, deeper into china and into emerging middle class economies, they will be ok, but this is a must do for them unless they can start bringing out very hot new categories and plainly the watch ain't one of them

but their other revenue streams don't have momentum or any particular strength driving them 

ps. ipad is the #2 revenue driver and mac #1 and neither of these categories is particularly strong, ipad sales are declining and mac sales are growing somewhat in a category that is showing a steady decline

that big slice of red should give everyone pause

View attachment 4922


another good graph of apple revenue and the problems they face: http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-apple-earnings-2015-7


----------



## GOB

I would love to know, with a P/E of 14, over $150B of net cash and 40% EPS growth, exactly how much of the stock is "innovation potential". Please provide some numbers and a basis for them before stating things as fact. I'd argue that there is nothing priced in for growth or future products, which is what makes the stock so appealing. It's quite clear to me all the fears about iPhone reliance etc. are already baked into the price, giving it an absurdly low valuation. That's not to say it can't drop more. I'd love to know why Google gets a 30+ P/E despite its complete reliance on a single revenue stream - one that Apple can severely impact with the flick of a switch. 

The watch is Apple's best selling new product line ever. Kind of hard to declare it a flop at this point, don't you think? These things take time to play out. Keep in mind the watch has a 97% customer satisfaction rating, and Chrsitmas is fast approaching. 

Revenue in China is not slowing - that's a complete lie. Revenue growth is accelerating on a year over year basis, which is the only proper way to compare a stock with cyclical products. 

To be quite frank, though I completely disagree with your opinions, there's no doubt a lot of people share them. This is why Apple is one of the best buys on the market today. 

Also worth mentioning that your years long prediction of low cost Android phones killing the iPhone (OnePlus, MotoX) is clearly flat out wrong, as iPhone is growing way faster than the smartphone market as a whole and Android switching rate is at an all time high...People pay for quality, end of story. ASP was up a ridiculous $99 year over year - and that includes a massive forex hit. With only 27% of people upgraded to 6/6+, the next cycle will likely be even bigger. Force Touch will be yet another differentiator, and it will be fun to see Android match it. The software will have to support it, and the hundreds of OEMs will have to have the hardware in their phones - what a hot mess it's going to be to see them try to copy Apple on this. Expect more switchers in the coming years as iOS emerges as the obvious choice for the discerning customer. 

If tax reform ever happens and Apple can repatriate at a reasonable tax rate, look out. They'll be able to buy back 10% of the company at current valuation or massively increase the dividend, or a combination of both. The amount of free cash they make is absurd. Can't wait.


----------



## fatcat

google is killing apple in web services and the cloud ... apple can't find its bum with a flashlight in both areas 

search will become even more important in the future as the web becomes more cluttered ... apple has no search at all

web services, software (apple software is notoriously bad) and cloud services are where the action will be over the next few decades

technology hardware undergoes a steady process of commoditization, it is easily copied, easily reverse-engineered, we see that with virtually all important consumer hardware

apple hangs it hat on a single product, no matter how good it is, they are still a one-trick pony

nothing else they have has the strength of the iphone (indeed everything else has strong competition (music, watch, pay) or is leading in a declining segment (tablet, laptop/desktop)) and that rightly makes a lot of investors nervous

for the record i own qqq which has apple, msft and goog and many others, i would never invest in a single tech company

i understand that you have to talk your book but i would urge caution


----------



## GOB

I hope you're joking. Search is becoming less and less meaningful due to the pervasiveness of apps which results in people bypassing the web completely for most of their activities. Apple has been in hardware business since their inception - over 30 years. They are still still selling high margin hardware extremely successfully. iPhone is outpacing its market and the Mac is doing the same. iPad is only slow not because it's commoditized but because it's so good people don't replace it often. It is still the dominant player in its category. 

Google is a one trick pony too - advertising. CPC was trending down for several quarters. I would not pin your hopes on Google outpacing Apple, especially at current valuation when GoOG's P/E is more than double AAPL's AAPL is absurdly safe as a medium or long term play at a 14 P/E with $200B in cash making more money than any company ever has in history.

AAPL can flatline their growth here and they will have their entire market cap in cash in about 7-8 years. Think about the likelihood of zero growth going forward. Now that's safety.


----------



## fatcat

i own a lot of apple hardware and have since their beginning

they are a fine company and excellent to own as part of an etf

i just would never bet the farm on them

nor would i on google or msft

i use all 3 of these companies products extensively and am happy to own all 3


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## GOB

That's fine. This thread is not about betting the farm on AAPL, it's about AAPL as a good investment just like any other stock thread. Based on your view, you shouldn't be happy to own Apple since you believe it is too reliant on one product and that product is going to be cannibalized. So which is it - do you think AAPL is a good investment or not? If I believed what you did I wouldn't want to touch AAPL. You're not making much sense here.


----------



## fatcat

GOB said:


> That's fine. This thread is not about betting the farm on AAPL, it's about AAPL as a good investment just like any other stock thread. Based on your view, you shouldn't be happy to own Apple since you believe it is too reliant on one product and that product is going to be cannibalized. So which is it - do you think AAPL is a good investment or not? If I believed what you did I wouldn't want to touch AAPL. You're not making much sense here.


yes, i believe that apple is a good asset to own in a moderate allocation (i.e less than 5% of a portfolio total) but if i had 5% in them i would still be concerned about their reliance on the iphone as a primary source of revenue

i would be concerned about hardware commoditization and pricing pressure particularly because i don't see similar strength in their remaining products (music, watch and pay and to a lesser extent tablet and pc) vis a vis competition (in pay, music and watch) and market trends for certain categories of hardware (in tablets and pcs) 

most people invest based on past performance and in that sense, who can argue against apple ?


----------



## kcowan

I hold 2100 shares and I am concerned about APPL surviving a smartphone slow down, especially in China. I like the fact that they made 92% of the smartphone profits in the last quarter. But the dependence is high and I know that iWatch will take years to evolve into a big seller. That is the APPL way. And iTunes is facing many challenges from every quarter.

I am paying $1/mo for extra iCloud storage for our 3 devices. It is nicely seamless. OneDrive, DropBox and Google cloud all too complex for me.


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## Just a Guy

So, being a market leader and profitable in multiple areas and 200+ Billion in cash isn't good enough, everything they produce has to be a home run or the company is "risky". This is your expectation for a company with a P/E of 12, when your comparison is a true one revenue stream company with a P/E of 30+.


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## fatcat

kcowan said:


> I hold 2100 shares and I am concerned about APPL surviving a smartphone slow down, especially in China. I like the fact that they made 92% of the smartphone profits in the last quarter. But the dependence is high and I know that iWatch will take years to evolve into a big seller. That is the APPL way. And iTunes is facing many challenges from every quarter.
> 
> I am paying $1/mo for extra iCloud storage for our 3 devices. It is nicely seamless. OneDrive, DropBox and Google cloud all too complex for me.


the watch, apple pay and apple music are long term propositions ...

all will take years to mature and all face varying levels of competition: spotify is a strong competitor against music, apple pay is technologically the most advanced but it only works on a small subset of the the phones in use 

the watch is so far much too complex to use and limited in what it even can do, there is a host of competitors that do much more limited kinds of functions but are much less expensive and much easier to use ... apple needs to build a case for the watch to a broad audience and so far they haven't

all of this can change but until then the iphone is the pony that pulls the apple cart

yet despite the iphones commanding presence, new and high quality android phones continued to be launched at it month in and month out

here is the new motorola "style" http://www.wired.com/2015/07/moto-x-style-play-will-change-how-we-buy-phones/?mbid=nl_72815


it has a 5.7-inch, quad-HD screen is packed into a body motorola says is smaller than the iphone 6 plus

it’s apparently the fastest-charging smartphone on the market. 

it has a 21-megapixel camera that will rival the iphone in quality

*it’s being sold unlocked for $399*

it will work on *any* carrier in the united states ... it supports every band of LTE, so all you have to do is pop in whatever SIM card you want.

this is only one example of the kinds of phones that are going coming up against the iphone month in and month out for a long time to come

the one plus 2 starts at $329 (for an unlocked contract free phone) and is a killer phone for the money https://oneplus.net/

and i am to believe that this doesn't aim squarely at the viability of the iphone ?

these are now phones reaching maximum levels of user experience in size, screen, speed and so on ... this is technology being commoditized


----------



## brad

fatcat said:


> this is only one example of the kinds of phones that are going coming up against the iphone month in and month out for a long time to come
> 
> the one plus 2 starts at $329 (for an unlocked contract free phone) and is a killer phone for the money


Yes, but it's Android. This is exactly like comparisons of Windows versus Mac. Most people will choose Windows or Android because of the price (and to a smaller extent more flexibility and choice), but as long as Apple can continue to provide a more seamless, easier to use, more reliable user experience (which it can because it controls both hardware and software, and has tighter control over third-party apps), there will always be a niche market for Apple products. And in a market as big as the smartphone market, a niche market can be highly profitable. Apple was doing well even before it invented the iPhone or even the iPod, because it had a profitable niche in the PC market.

Apple claims that the number of people switching from Android to iPhone has never been higher. To me, that says that people are drawn initially to Android for the reasons I mentioned above, but after a certain period of time using it, a portion of those users get frustrated and decide to switch to iOS. Same goes for Windows: you always see people getting fed up with Windows and switching to Mac. Not a huge tidal wave of people but enough to keep Apple selling Macs.


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## indexxx

yup ^^

Many (like myself) simply don't like the Android or Windows systems. My wife had a Samsung Galaxy and I hated using it. I bought an Asus in Africa and hated it- just needed a cheap local solution while traveling in Namibia. I have to use Windows machines at work and I really don't like them. I switched to Mac about 5 years ago and it was an immediate feeling of a great fit for me and I can't see how I would ever switch- which means I'll upgrade my computers and phones within Apple when I need to.


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## kcowan

fatcat said:


> the watch is so far much too complex to use and limited in what it even can do, there is a host of competitors that do much more limited kinds of functions but are much less expensive and much easier to use ... apple needs to build a case for the watch to a broad audience and so far they haven't
> 
> all of this can change but until then the iphone is the pony that pulls the apple cart


I have a virtual friend over on ER.org and she has an iWatch. I asked her if she could use Siri and she confirmed that she can say "Call home" to reach her husband and Siri please schedule a meeting regarding X at 2pm tomorrow. She has just scratched the surface of possibilities.

I am awaiting the time when the iPhone will not be needed.

As for Android competition, it has always been there. I am not worried about that. I have a friend who tells me about the Android latest and I ask him how his wife likes it. She does not. She says it would be unusable for her without his tech support. But then they really put it through its paces.

(He has moved beyond branded offerings such as HTC, Samsung and Google in favour of a rooted generic phone.)


----------



## fatcat

first, i am NOT saying apple is about to slip in the ocean, they are going to be a leading technology company for some time to come

what i am saying is the numbers and pricing pressure will start to make dents in the apple empire

this is from forbes:



> IDC most recent data shows Apple increasing the number of iOS units shipped between 2015 and 2019 from 237 million to 274.5 million , but it’s market share will dip 2.2 percent to 14.2 percent. During the same period the number of smartphones using Android will hit 1.53 billion, up from 1.2 billion in 2015, but its marketshare will remain static at about 79 percent.
> 
> However, for 2015 Apple will continue to be hot with IDC forecasting a 23 percent increase in units shipped, compared to just 8.5 percent for Android.
> 
> Overall, the market will continue to grow with 1.9 billion units expected to ship in 2019, an 8.5 percent increase from 2015, IDC said.


i use ios every day, i am ok with it, i use osx every day and am ok with that but windows is a perfectly good alternative, a fine os that many (the overwhelming majority ... prefer) ... fine

android maintains huge market share worldwide, these are people who may not even ever own a computer but have grown up on android

*and did you look at the phones i cited ?*

we are now seeing similar phones coming every few months from different makers who show zero signs of quitting

these are *very* high quality phones that are reaching maximum screen rez, maximum user speed, maximum sizes and so on, in other words we are seeing phones blur together at the top end ... they are all technically very excellent and very close ... this is *not* good for someone like apple who will have a harder and harder time setting its products apart

the difference is that we are seeing android phones at much lower price points and i believe that will take a toll ... nobody likes to be locked into a cell phone contract and i do not see the value proposition if i can walk in to a store and buy a great one-plus-two phone for $329 and walk out not owing any carrier a damn thing

there are all kinds of ways apple can combat this, they can grow in emerging markets, they can lower the price of their phones, maybe set up a two-tier phone structure but the problem is that this goes against everything their brand stands for

i think apple knows this which is why they are hiring fashion consultants and the like ...

sure they can be a niche technologically provider but niche providers don't command these nose-bleed kinds of market caps

only mass market worldwide mega-corps do and to be one you need to sell widely and far and to the masses


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## brad

fatcat said:


> f
> the difference is that we are seeing android phones at much lower price points and i believe that will take a toll ... nobody likes to be locked into a cell phone contract and i do not see the value proposition if i can walk in to a store and buy a great one-plus-two phone for $329 and walk out not owing any carrier a damn thing


Right, but they're Android.

They can be the most feature-rich, well-designed phones in the world, but they're still Android. I have no doubt that Apple's share of the phone market will decline. Apple's long history is as a small niche player in big markets; the popularity of the iPhone (and before that the iPod) was a fluke and it will pass. But even if Apple ends up with a 0.5% share of the phone market, that still translates to a lot of money. 

They aren't going to compete on price etc. because they don't have to. They offer an alternative to Android in the phone and tablet worlds, just as they offer an alternative to Windows in the PC world. It's a different experience: it's not better or worse than Android or Windows, it's just different. And people like having alternatives.

One of the distinguishing features is bloatware: no two Android phones provide the same experience, because the makers slap bloatware into them and customize the operating system. One iPhone is like every other iPhone, there's no bloatware. Same with Windows. If you look at Microsoft's Signature Series, they're selling laptops, tablets, and desktop machines that are identical to what you'd get from Dell, Asus, etc., with only one difference: no bloatware. And they're expensive. The Microsoft Surface tablet with 500 gig flash drive is considerably more expensive than a comparably equipped MacBook Air, laptop for example, and way more expensive than an iPad.


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## MrMatt

brad said:


> but as long as Apple can continue to provide a more seamless, easier to use, more reliable user experience (which it can because it controls both hardware and software, and has tighter control over third-party apps), there will always be a niche market for Apple products. And in a market as big as the smartphone market, a niche market can be highly profitable. Apple was doing well even before it invented the iPhone or even the iPod, because it had a profitable niche in the PC market.


True, but with Kitkat, Android surpassed iOS, and Lollipop is overall far better than iOS. You just have to buy a Nexus device to get pure Android.

My current annoyance with iOS is that I have several gigs my device allocated to "other", it's space you can't reclaim except by reformatting and reinstalling, which isn't something I look forward to doing. Try it, you'll get piles of warnings and never really know if you're going to get all you apps and data back when you're done.


----------



## brad

MrMatt said:


> True, but with Kitkat, Android surpassed iOS, and Lollipop is overall far better than iOS. You just have to buy a Nexus device to get pure Android.


Far better in your view, of course, but you don't say why. Everyone values features and "annoyances" differently. "Better" isn't objective.

See http://www.businessinsider.com/switching-to-iphone-from-android-2015-5 and http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddhixon/2014/03/26/why-i-dumped-my-android-phone/ for the other side of the coin.

I don't have a smartphone so I have no opinion myself one way or the other. All I've observed is that some people love Android and think it superior, while some people love iOS and think it superior. And as long as both types of people exist, there will be a market for both operating systems.


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## fatcat

MrMatt said:


> True, but with Kitkat, Android surpassed iOS, and Lollipop is overall far better than iOS. You just have to buy a Nexus device to get pure Android.


this is important i think ... lollipop is a huge step forward ...

what is happening is the cream of android is rising to the top and it is converging on something like the "pure" google experience ... the technology is converging, the screens are ultra-beautiful, the phones are ultra-fast, the cameras are getting better and better

and all of this is happening on phones that are dropping in price and can be contract-free for $329 ... soon we will have a premium smart phone for under $300, this has to cause apple some concern

in order to compete you are going to have to provide an easier more consistent experience, we will see customizations fall away and the overall android experience become smoother and more familiar

it's easier to copy and catch up than it is to invent and create ... interestingly, apple is copying android now in all kinds of ways, this is not insignificant

windows and mac are a perfect example of what will happen with android and ios

they will converge and there will be an expectation from users that both systems work the same way, exactly as windows and mac do, they accomplish things differently but the basic concepts are the same ... users stick with windows because they know it and android users will stick with it because they know it

windows and mac each have their adherents but in the end they are both commodities


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## kcowan

MrMatt said:


> You just have to buy a Nexus device to get pure Android.


As I said before:
(He has moved beyond branded offerings such as HTC, Samsung and Google in favour of a rooted generic phone.) 
He says even Nexus captures your personal data for their use. So it is not pure Android because of your loss of control over your data (usage and ID).


----------



## andrewf

That's a consequence of using Google Play services. You can opt out (something you can't do with Apple--you have to trust them and how they store and disseminate the data they gather about users).


----------



## andrewf

Also to add that a big part of the feature set of a smartphone these days relies on data mining your activity. Personal assistant features of Google Now or Siri would not work without giving access to your calendar, email and search history, location data, movement data etc


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## GOB

Oh god, now we're talking about the Motorola Style...hilarious. What is this, iPhone killer #12,438? Apple must be worried sick about Motorola and their style.

Important to note that fatcat has been using the same argument literally for years, mentioning various cheap, awesome phones with amazing screen and multiple cores. Yet everyone still wants the iPhone. 

No response to Force Touch that is likely upcoming in the 6s? Another thing Android will not be able to match for a while.

You need to get it through your head - nobody want a Motorola Style no matter how nice the screen is. It's about hardware, software, branding, build quality, longer ivory, security, the whole works. Nobody can offer that package like Apple does, and the proof is in the continued success of iPhone despite the whole world trying to take it down. To think that's going to change when there is zero evidence is foolish. Android switchers are at an all time high - the iPhone has not had this kind of momentum for years.


----------



## fatcat

i believe that you can root a phone which can even include rewriting the underlying code in the case of android since it is open source code
presumably that might allow you to keep personal data to a minimum though a certain of data is transmitted to cell towers and who knows what other data is unstoppable ?

but andrews point is key, all of these phones are increasingly designed to function by surrendering a huge amount of personal data 

apple requires an id to do just about anything on the phone ... android can be used without a formal id but unless you shut everything down, you are surrendering personal data all over the place

this is the contract we all have signed to use our phones ... i'm okay with most of it as long as we have the protection of warrants in place

of course there is always the black phone if you are truly paranoid: https://home.silentcircle.com/


----------



## andrewf

I've heard mixed reviews about Force Touch. Apparently fantastic on the new Macbook, disappointing on the Watch. I don't think Apple is going to sell a tonne of iPhones on the back of Force Touch replacing Long Press as a UI element. I will reserve judgement until I see it in action, but it's hard to imagine it being a huge selling feature.


----------



## MrMatt

GOB said:


> Oh god, now we're talking about the Motorola Style...hilarious. What is this, iPhone killer #12,438? Apple must be worried sick about Motorola and their style.
> 
> Important to note that fatcat has been using the same argument literally for years, mentioning various cheap, awesome phones with amazing screen and multiple cores. Yet everyone still wants the iPhone.
> 
> No response to Force Touch that is likely upcoming in the 6s? Another thing Android will not be able to match for a while.
> 
> You need to get it through your head - nobody want a Motorola Style no matter how nice the screen is. It's about hardware, software, branding, build quality, longer ivory, security, the whole works. Nobody can offer that package like Apple does, and the proof is in the continued success of iPhone despite the whole world trying to take it down. To think that's going to change when there is zero evidence is foolish. Android switchers are at an all time high - the iPhone has not had this kind of momentum for years.


I'd like to see the numbers, last time I checked (about last year) it looked like numerically similar numbers of users were switching each way.
I can tell you I personally know people who are happy with either system, and have switched to or from each system, and are happy or regret their choice.

The simple truth is both options are pretty good. To suggest that the iPhone is some aspirational item that "everybody" would choose if it weren't for reason X is laughable. I choose Android because IMO it's a better fit for my needs. 
That's something Apple boosters can't seem to grasp.


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## GOB

I've never said it's everybody as I realize personal preference does exist. However, it is a good majority. We'e price not a factor iOS would without a shadow of a doubt be the top OS in terms of marketshare. No question about it, and if you think otherwise, you are delusional. All you have to do is look at iPhone's share in the price segment it competes in - there are plenty of phones that cost as much or more than the iPhone, and they don't do very well. Same goes with iPad and Mac - Apple makes high-end aspirational products. 

As for the switchers, I don't have numbers for and am just basing it on Cook's comments during the conference call. It is well known that iPhone retention rates are industry leading by a wide margin. If you look at iPhone growth and compare it to the rest of the market, unless people are vying multiple iPhones, that growth is coming from a combination of switchers and new smartphone users. Based on iPhone retention rates, both of those are key areas that Apple is winning and it bodes very well for their future.


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## fatcat

a good example of the kind of competition apple is facing in the non-iPhone space

samsung pay is co-launching in europe with mastercard

it uses the same technology as the iPhone does except there is a key difference ... samsung pay will support magnetic strips on pay terminals which means that merchants will not have to upgrade terminals to accept the payment system

upgrading is costly and merchants don't want to shell out constantly for new technology

this means that 30 million merchants will be instantly ready to accept samsung pay

http://techcrunch.com/2015/07/30/samsung-mastercard-take-europe/?ncid=rss

http://venturebeat.com/2015/03/01/s...ic-strip-tech-to-trump-apple-pay-android-pay/


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## MrMatt

GOB said:


> I've never said it's everybody as I realize personal preference does exist. However, it is a good majority. We'e price not a factor iOS would without a shadow of a doubt be the top OS in terms of marketshare. No question about it, and if you think otherwise, you are delusional. All you have to do is look at iPhone's share in the price segment it competes in - there are plenty of phones that cost as much or more than the iPhone, and they don't do very well. Same goes with iPad and Mac - Apple makes high-end aspirational products.
> 
> As for the switchers, I don't have numbers for and am just basing it on Cook's comments during the conference call. It is well known that iPhone retention rates are industry leading by a wide margin. If you look at iPhone growth and compare it to the rest of the market, unless people are vying multiple iPhones, that growth is coming from a combination of switchers and new smartphone users. Based on iPhone retention rates, both of those are key areas that Apple is winning and it bodes very well for their future.


Relying on Cook for objective information is interesting, he's always going to spin it well.

Do you really think it's just price keeping iOS share small? You seem absolutely convinced of that idea, but you don't seem to have any data to support it. 
With phones ranging from $0-400 on contract, exactly what price segment does iOS compete in?

Satisfied customers and keeping them satisfied and engaged is what will help Apple.
I don't see them taking over the market when there are better alternatives out there.


----------



## kcowan

andrewf said:


> That's a consequence of using Google Play services. You can opt out (something you can't do with Apple--you have to trust them and how they store and disseminate the data they gather about users).


Apparently not. The opt out option does not protect you from getting your data mined (except for the playing action) so forget about privacy on any of the "proprietary" Android implementations!

My buddy is really down on Apple until he discovered that all the branded Android phones do the same things.


> I have also returned to installing a pure unadulterated Android ROM on my smartphones and tablets. What a pleasure: exceptional performance, no useless apps, no longer waiting for the phone makers Android updates, an exceptional support community with leading edge skills and timely support, no manufacturer app conflicts, and my identity is totally controlled by me - not on a partition location that only the manufacturer can access.


----------



## GOB

Of course it's price. Look at iOS share in wealthier nations and compare to poorer ones. Even within countries, provinces and states, iOS dominates the wealthier suburbs and Android dominates the less wealthy parts. There are some interesting charts which I will provide when I have some time. There is a ton of data to support it - you're just not looking. If you were to offer 100 people a free iPhone or a free top end Android phone, how many do you think would take an iPhone? I would say with certainty it's well over half, which is obviously way bigger than iPhone's global marketshare. Cost is definitely the #1 reason that people do not have an iPhone. It's a very powerful lever that Apple can pull of the time ever does come that sales start to slow due to commoditization.


----------



## fatcat

kcowan said:


> I have also returned to installing a pure unadulterated Android ROM on my smartphones and tablets. What a pleasure: exceptional performance, no useless apps, no longer waiting for the phone makers Android updates, an exceptional support community with leading edge skills and timely support, no manufacturer app conflicts, and my identity is totally controlled by me - not on a partition location that only the manufacturer can access.


he would need to point out to me the technological difference between using his modified phone (android is open source, you can root and do all kinds of things with it) and using a google nexus on which you don't use play or any proprietary apps that require opt-in

you use the term "getting your data mined"

i think that the stock google nexus would transmit no more useful data than a modified phone ... assuming ... you use the phone with no opt-in's at all

but in the end, if you live an active modern life there is no point in not opting-in since by doing so you gain access to the full value of a modern phone

an opt-in phone gives you so much value versus and opt-out

if you really are that paranoid, you should use the black phone or other privacy specific builds


----------



## kcowan

Well I suspect you are just bluffing. My friend has studied this and is convinced of what he says. His business was Unix system development in the 80s and he is convinced that Google is diddling with his data. He is also a PhD in Physics and I will not argue with him on this, mostly because I don't care enough. I use an iPhone.

(Give him a call 604-669-4310)


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## brad

kcowan said:


> I use an iPhone.


Which runs on Unix.


----------



## Arizona

Today I added Aug14 calls 2.98/117 
And Jan15 calls 7.30/120 strike

January calls easy 300% return


----------



## avrex

Arizona said:


> January calls *easy* 300% return


I also own AAPL Jan calls..... but we could just as *easily* lose money. 
There are no 'sure things' when it comes to investing. :concern:


----------



## fatcat

apple pay use is already declining

http://www.pymnts.com/in-depth/2015...-falling-side-of-the-bell-curve/#.VcQkvxP2Ao8

only 3% of iphone 6 buyers reported apple pay as a reason for buying the iphone so the feature is not selling iphones

usage among committed users is actually declining



> In March, 48 percent of iPhone 6 consumers in a store where they could use Apple Pay did. In June, that number had dropped to 33 percent.


the number of people not using apple pay because of security concerns actually rose from 15% to 19%

the number of people who forgot to use apple pay rose from 32 to 34%

it still may succeed but this is going to be a long slog and will not contribute much to the bottom line nor even spur the sales of the iphone which puts more pressure on the phone to bring in revenue ...


----------



## andrewf

I would say 33% penetration is still not bad, but agreed that payment processing is not a huge selling feature for most buyers and will take time to gain adoption. Samsung Pay and Android Pay (starting later this year with Android M) hitting the market should help people get used to paying with their phones.


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## fatcat

the wet dream for pay-by-phone seems to be the relinquishment of the wallet and that will be decades away if ever which means pay-by-phone will always compete with with a quick and easy credit card (i can substantially beat paying by phone versus my card on those touch-to-pay terminals)

which is why we see numbers going up of people who forget to use their apple pay

both systems have security risks and so far apple pay is more private though i think much of the merchant resistance will come from the fact that they don't get the data from the sale and that will cause apple pay grief

apple pay appeals ... greatly ... to a very small group who live and die by their phone versus the rest of us who use a wider spectrum of identification, cards and payments

samsung pay and android pay are not as well implemented technologically but have the advantage of being on many, many more phones and in the case of samsung pay they work on all the old pay terminals which is huge


----------



## andrewf

The killer app for me is getting rid of all my loyalty cards, government id, etc. I would like to have 1 ID card (health, driver, licensing etc.), 1 or 2 payment cards and everything else on my phone.

We are not all that close to this reality, and fragmentation seems like it is going to persist for the foreseeable future.


----------



## avrex

_U.S. companies that rely heavily on sales to China, including Apple, are feeling the pain of China's Tuesday move weaken its currency._

Apple was *down 5.2%* today.


----------



## indexxx

Yesterday it was up almost 4%- everything fluctuates. It will recover.


----------



## andrewf

Yes. I'm really not interested in day to day returns. I can't fathom why anyone would care whether the Dow is up 100, 200 or 300 points on any given day. Weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly returns are the only things that have any meaning for me--day by day returns are just noise.


----------



## DanKent1234

Apple is slowly but surely a dying stock. Analysts and investors pick this stock apart just because of what it is, a powerhouse blue chip. The fact that the Iphone is falling out of popularity in China is crucial. I still do think this stock hits 150. I've been a long time Apple investor, and I believe a TON of people are losing money currently trying to "trade" Apple. Just hold it if ya got it.

Forgot to mention, considering I said Apple is a dying stock. I don't believe its dead YET, but Apple needs to make some major improvements and somehow put a stop to overall weak projections or it will be


----------



## indexxx

DanKent1234 said:


> Apple is slowly but surely a dying stock. Analysts and investors pick this stock apart just because of what it is, a powerhouse blue chip. The fact that the Iphone is falling out of popularity in China is crucial. I still do think this stock hits 150. I've been a long time Apple investor, and I believe a TON of people are losing money currently trying to "trade" Apple. Just hold it if ya got it.
> 
> Forgot to mention, considering I said Apple is a dying stock. I don't believe its dead YET, but Apple needs to make some major improvements and somehow put a stop to overall weak projections or it will be


Sorry- can't agree. There are zero facts and no convincing arguments in your statement. Nobody has any idea of what Apple may be planning- my personal thought is that here we have the richest company on Earth, filled with some of the best tech minds money can buy- and their goal is to continue to dominate and disrupt. Who knows where they'll go- medical equipment? Food? 3D printing? Cars or other related transport industries? Where will Apple Pay and Watch eventually lead? And the statements about China are simply not true. China is very brand aware, with people wanting the perceived 'best', which for phones is still the iPhone.

People everywhere (and on this forum) have been predicting the end of Apple for years because of blah blah blah... and it still hasn't happened.



and zero factsand zero facts


----------



## DanKent1234

indexxx said:


> Sorry- can't agree. There are zero facts and no convincing arguments in your statement. Nobody has any idea of what Apple may be planning- my personal thought is that here we have the richest company on Earth, filled with some of the best tech minds money can buy- and their goal is to continue to dominate and disrupt. Who knows where they'll go- medical equipment? Food? 3D printing? Cars or other related transport industries? Where will Apple Pay and Watch eventually lead? And the statements about China are simply not true. China is very brand aware, with people wanting the perceived 'best', which for phones is still the iPhone.
> 
> People everywhere (and on this forum) have been predicting the end of Apple for years because of blah blah blah... and it still hasn't happened.
> 
> 
> 
> and zero factsand zero facts


May be true, and I'm not arguing that, as I said in the fact they need to make some major improvements and somehow put a stop to the weak projections. But as for now, with the apple watch being a failure, phone sales falling to third in China, a leaked spec sheet of the 6S that really doesn't show any vast improvements, i pad sales falling, they are dropping the ball right now.

Like I said, I'm a long term investor in Apple, I've had skin in the game for years now. This is the first time where I haven't looked at it with a positive outlook.


----------



## fatcat

indexxx said:


> and their goal is to continue to dominate and disrupt. Who knows where they'll go- medical equipment? Food? 3D printing? Cars or other related transport industries? Where will Apple Pay and Watch eventually lead?


i agree that this is their goal but they simply are not achieving it

it's a very steep hill to climb to innovate and disrupt, there is a limited supply of fresh steve jobs available on our planet

the watch is absolutely not disrupting anything ... nor is apple pay ... both have serious and credible competition

sure they can go into cars and medical equipment and television and so on but they are just another company and have shown zero ability to create new categories in any of these areas

which doesn't mean they don't make quality hardware, they absolutely do, often the very best 

but the premium for innovation that they receive just isn't warranted

that may change ... but they are now still a one product company essentially


----------



## GoldStone

Forget Apple The Company. Think about Apple The Stock.

Here's a recent post by Aswath Damodaran:

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.ca/2015/08/narrative-resets-revisiting-tech-trio.html

For those not familiar with Damodaran, he is a Professor of Finance. He teaches classes on how to value companies. He is widely considered to be one of the top experts on corporate valuation.

According to Damodaran, Apple is a bargain at the current price. Look at his graph that shows the distribution of value/share. The graph is based on a simulation that makes a range of assumptions about growth, margins and cost of capital. The current price sits in the low 20% of the value range.


----------



## Just a Guy

I do like how people post "apple falls 4%, it's doomed", but don't mention the recovery or "<insert apple products> is a failure" when it adds only millions in profit to the bottom line. I get the fact that people don't like apple. I get the fact that, if they don't come out with something new (and there is absolutely no indication that they won't) that they would eventually fail, but let's get serious for a second...

Which company in this industry is better? Blackberry? Microsoft? Samsung? IBM? Any/all of these are far worse with the current arguements being presented. Let's hear the "wisdom" from all the "experts" out there...what is the better alternative, where should we put our money since Apple is such a dead horse?


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> I do like how people post "apple falls 4%, it's doomed", but don't mention the recovery or "<insert apple products> is a failure" when it adds only millions in profit to the bottom line. I get the fact that people don't like apple. I get the fact that, if they don't come out with something new (and there is absolutely no indication that they won't) that they would eventually fail, but let's get serious for a second...
> 
> Which company in this industry is better? Blackberry? Microsoft? Samsung? IBM? Any/all of these are far worse with the current arguements being presented. Let's hear the "wisdom" from all the "experts" out there...what is the better alternative, where should we put our money since Apple is such a dead horse?


i personally have never said apple is doomed, they have terrific products

i question the "innovation premium" that accompanies their market value and i wonder how they are going to shift away from dependence on a single product

it's possible that the iphone may continue to hit home runs, i have never said they couldn't but i believe the competition is catching up simply by their ability to merely copy apple

i think android is improving constantly and android phones are getting better and better for less money ... you can now buy a first-class android phone for $200 off-contract ... that has got to start hurting apple

and i don't see anything like past innovation in any of their other product lines ... apple pay is technically good as is the watch but they are not the iphone, they have plenty of solid competition

ipad sales are tanking and computers are holding but not providing the returns that the iphone is

to answer the question of what else to buy, i would only hold tech in an etf either QQQ XLK RYT or one of the many others

there is too much historical disruption in technology (and it can happen very quickly) and i see no reason why that will change


----------



## jaybee

fatcat, how are you valuing AAPL if think that it has an innovation premium built into the stock price? It's trading at 13 times earnings. Compare that to Google or Microsoft which are trading at 32 -33ish times earnings.


----------



## fatcat

> Over the last three months, Apple grew its revenues by 33%, saw its profits increase by 38% to $10.7 billion, put away more than $202 billion in cash for a rainy day — and yet lost more than $60 billion in market value in just three minutes on Tuesday.
> 
> Casual observers might be scratching their heads at news that, at first glance, would suggest the world’s biggest tech company had a bad day despite releasing earnings many companies would be proud to call their own. “Apple iPhone Sales, Up 35%, Disappoint Investors” was the Wall Street Journal‘s initial headline. “Apple Profit Up 38%, but iPhone Sales Disappoint Wall Street” blared The New York Times.
> 
> The reason for this initially mind-boggling disparity? *Expectations*.


http://fortune.com/2015/07/22/apple-iphone-sales/



> iPhone’s growing contribution to Apple’s bottom line
> 
> With respect to contribution to revenues, 68% is a big number. However, the iPhone’s value to Apple becomes even more significant when we consider the contribution of its margins. According to Apple’s filings, the average selling price for an iPhone in fiscal 1Q15 was $687. According to a report from IHS Technology (IHS), the estimated building cost for the iPhone 6 and the iPhone Plus is between $200 and $263. Taking the midpoint of material cost, the gross margins for the iPhone 6 and the iPhone Plus was about 66%. Apple’s overall gross margins in fiscal 1Q15 was about 40%.
> 
> *Clearly, the iPhone’s contribution toward Apple’s bottom line exceeds its revenue contribution of 68%.* The iPhone’s success in the December quarter was the sole reason why Apple’s stock increased from $109 to about $120 just before the earnings announcement.


http://marketrealist.com/2015/02/iphone-business-continues-increase-value-apple/

the iphone is pulling apple and i think it will be very difficult to maintain market dominance in the face of what i think is serious competition ... any stumble by the iphone will ripple through apple's stock price as the fortune snippet demonstrates

and the rest of the product line doesn't demonstrate the kind of innovative thinking that people credit apple with since all of their other products have real competition (as does the iphone)

they have 200-billion in the bank but it does them no good because it is innovation that creates new categories and you cannot buy innovation ... it arrives by way of visionaries and these kind of people are in short supply

it is *much* easier to copy than it is to innovate

apple needs to develop an "innovation curve" that is steeper than their rivals "copy curve" and that isn't happening


----------



## jaybee

^ Since you declined to comment on how you value the company, I can only assume that you've not looked at the fundamentals. This stock is not expensive, and it certainly doesn't have an "innovation premium" built in.


----------



## Just a Guy

Not to mention which companies look better...if Apple is such a dog, one would think both questions should have been super simple to answer. 

Which android manufacturer should we be investing in? Which smart watch company? Which payment processor? 

With the competition seeking the strategy "sell at a loss, but make up for it in volume" vs. Apple's strategy of "make a profit in each sector" (though not enough compared to the completion which is losing money in the sector), one would think the answer is obvious. 

Of course, I'm not saying Apple is the Jesus stock, or that long term they will continue to grow, but really who is better? If there isn't anyone, then why aren't you in cash?


----------



## andrewf

Why says you have to own any company in the industry? Consumer electronics is, in general, a low-margin business with low barriers to entry.

Apple is not overvalued currently, and it is not pricing in any innovation. But Apple is relying very heavily on iPhone, so any risk to that business is a risk to the whole company.


----------



## DanKent1234

Agreed Andrew. the best losing stock out of a group of 10 is still, a losing stock(no knock to Apple, just an example). You don't HAVE to own anything in an industry.


----------



## Just a Guy

I'd open the challenge up to other industries...which ones have the cash, profit margins, P/E ratio, book value, etc? If Apple is so bad, the other stocks on the market would be a nightmare. Again, not an Apple fanboy, but I'm looking to see who exactly is better? If you're going to constantly bash this stock, there must be numerous companies in various industries which make it look awful, this should be easy.


----------



## DanKent1234

I think with Apple being the way it is, in the eyes of investors Apple performing "well" is not good enough. I was actually amazed at the backlash after the report. To me, Apple is going to have to find some way to get their phones within a reasonable price, or they will fall further in China.

Edit- Not necessarily here sorry, but with the economy the way it is in China and the endless supply of cheaper smart phones out there, I find it hard to believe they are going to continue to pay a premium for Apple


----------



## HipsterTrades

I bought today, I now regret it and I'm now looking for an exit ASAP at 117.20$


----------



## indexxx

the only better way to lose money than penny stocks is to jump in and out of good ones...


----------



## DanKent1234

indexxx said:


> the only better way to lose money than penny stocks is to jump in and out of good stocks...


I still wonder, even through all of this, why people are still trying to "trade" Apple. This stock in my opinion will hit 150. Buy it, collect the dividends. This isn't some low volume stock your gonna see massive swings on.


----------



## james4beach

DanKent1234 said:


> This isn't some low volume stock your gonna see massive swings on.


No, it's a $668 billion stock you're gonna see massive swings on. The thing _doubled_ in price in just 2 years... it's a very volatile stock that has enormous moves.

Then there was that 7 month period where it fell -45%

There's nothing stable about AAPL's price. It moves a lot.


----------



## GOB

DanKent1234 said:


> I think with Apple being the way it is, in the eyes of investors Apple performing "well" is not good enough. I was actually amazed at the backlash after the report. To me, Apple is going to have to find some way to get their phones within a reasonable price, or they will fall further in China.
> 
> Edit- Not necessarily here sorry, but with the economy the way it is in China and the endless supply of cheaper smart phones out there, I find it hard to believe they are going to continue to pay a premium for Apple


What do you mean by "fall further"? Are you implying that Apple has been falling in China by growing their revenues 112% year-over-year?

And the "innovation premium" is such a joke. Anyone who thinks that the most innovative company in the world trading at a 13 P/E (~10 ex-cash and debt) is off his rocker and doesn't have a clue about valuation. There is zero innovation premium and zero growth expectation at AAPL's current valuation. That is not up for debate - that's a fact. AAPL is valued like a utility. No, wait..it's valued far worse than a utility. Amazing buying opportunity.

This stock will trade far higher than 150. It's just a matter of time. Could be months, could be years.


----------



## Just a Guy

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3115517

Appears apple's bucking the trend.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3115517
> Appears apple's bucking the trend.


this can be interpreted two ways depending on how you view the future of both smartphones and apple

overall smartphone sales are falling with the exception of lower cost phones which are android phones
china is reaching phone saturation as is much of the first world

the net result is that it increases future challenges for apple in the sales of the product that the company depends upon given the poor performance of the watch and of apple pay and falling sales for ipad

it must grow iphone sales simply because the rest of the product line is not showing any particular strength even if it isn't showing weakness

and growing iphone sales while possible will face a steeper incline i think


----------



## GOB

What a horrid analysis. Sorry, but this is just moronic. No matter what your stance is, so much of what you're saying is simply factually incorrect.



fatcat said:


> overall smartphone sales are falling


No, in fact they are not. They grew by 13.5% (329.7M vs 290.4M a year ago). The _growth_ may be slowing, but that is a very different matter. Double digit growth still gives plenty of headroom. 



fatcat said:


> with the exception of lower cost phones which are android phones


Oops, wrong again. Apple doesn't sell low cost Android phones (obviously), yet iOS showed growth of 35.9% (48.1M vs 35.3M a year ago). Note that this is in fact 166% more growth than the market as a whole. iOS increased market share while Android dropped. In fact, if Gartner's numbers are correct, iPhones were responsible for 1/3 of the unit growth of the entire smartphone market. You're right, that can be interpreted two ways - the right way and the wrong way. 

How on earth do you draw the conclusion that low cost Android phones are the only sector showing growth? I would love to hear your explanation - I need a good laugh.



fatcat said:


> poor performance of the watch


Judging a new product line by the first couple of months is a foolish endeavour. iPod and iPhone were both written off due to tepid initial sales. Besides that fact, Apple Watch has sold more in its first months than iPod, iPhone and iPad did. So how exactly do you determine that the performance is poor? Apple Pay was never meant to be a huge money maker, though I do think they need to roll it out much faster internationally. iPads are disappointing, yes, but only because the upgrade cycle is so slow. It remains the clear winner among tablets. iPad Pro should provide a nice boost, especially in enterprise. 



fatcat said:


> growing iphone sales while possible will face a steeper incline i think


While this is an opinion and thus not factually incorrect, this has been said ever since the iPhone became a hit, by you and everyone else. Look at your posts two years ago, and look at iPhone sales since then. It's a broken record. Sales continue, and Android users are switching in droves. The market is maturing and growth is slowing, agreed. Now is the time where existing smartphone users are making choices as to what OS they prefer, and the evidence is showing that iOS is winning out. With the exception of a few niche customers, Android is simply a low cost smartphone option for those who do not want to pay the premium for an iPhone. Top end Android sales are tanking, while iPhone sales surge.

You are right that when selling 50-75 million a quarter in a slower growth market it will be harder to maintain growth. However, AAPL is not priced for growth which is what makes it such great value. Analysts are projecting 2% iPhone growth for 2016. Given the Android switcher rate and the fact that only about 30% of the iPhone user base has upgraded, I still project 8-10% unit growth for 2016, with the possibility of it being much higher. 

AAPL has absurd FCF, and a rock-bottom P/E with over $150B net cash. While these prices are painful to see for anyone invested, they represent a tremendous opportunity to enter or add to one's position.


----------



## Just a Guy

I too liked the "poor performance of the watch". 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paullam...atch-to-dominate-smartwatch-market-for-years/


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> I too liked the "poor performance of the watch".
> 
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/paullam...atch-to-dominate-smartwatch-market-for-years/


first, these are of course "predictions" .. apple will not tell us how the watch is doing ... hmmm

second, even if the watch sells "well" (whatever that might mean) it will add relatively little to apple's bottom line which is still overwhelmingly dependent on the iphone

third, i am interested in what is happening on the ground and the word is not good, it gets some good reviews almost entirely from techies and geeks, the balance of reviews have been lukewarm to very poor (it isn't comfortable, it doesn't fit, it's too big and a huge number of users say that it is just too complex)

go to any major city in the usa and hit craigslist and do a search for "apple watch" (here is the sf bay area, apple's own back yard) ... they litter craigslist, they are plentiful and in oversupply, it's clearly a buyers market ... this does not happen with apple products

the fact that it is the clear leader doesn't mean much in a category that is tiny and as usual, the watch will be knocked-off and we will see new versions on android that sell for half of what apple sells for

android wear watches are rolling out in the next few weeks with features that rival apple and are likely easier to use (since any watch will be easier to use than an apple watch)

http://www.droid-life.com/2015/08/20/android-wear-update-introduces-interactive-watch-faces/

i need to add more thing for clarity, i am not saying that the apple watch isn't a success (whatever that might mean) i am saying that at present it isn't the product that will provide the bottom line juice that apple needs to diversify away from the iphone ... at the end of the day apple is overwhelmingly dependent on the iphone


----------



## GOB

More garbage...



fatcat said:


> first, these are of course "predictions" .. apple will not tell us how the watch is doing ... hmmm


Wrong. They may not break out exact unit sales, but they have told us enough to show that it is off to a promising start:

Tim Cook:


> Secondly to provide a bit more color, sales of the Watch did exceed our expectations and they did so despite supply still trailing demand at the end of the quarter. And to give you a little additional insight, through the end of the quarter, in fact the Apple Watch sell-through was higher than the comparable launch periods of the original iPhone or the original iPad. And we were able to do that with having only 680 points of sale. And as you probably know, as I had reviewed earlier, the online sales were so great at the beginning, we were not able to feed inventory to our stores until mid-June. And so those points of sale pretty much, the overwhelming majority of the low numbers of sales were not there until the last two weeks of the quarter.
> 
> ...
> 
> Based on that experience, we're now planning to expand our channel before the holiday because we're convinced that the Watch is going to be one of the top gifts of the holiday season.
> 
> ...
> 
> On the Watch, our June sales were higher than April or May. I realize that's very different than what some of the, is being written, but the June sales were the highest. And so the Watch had a more of a back-ended kind of a skewing.


So, they aren't telling us how the Watch is doing? Or are you just not doing your homework?



fatcat said:


> third, i am interested in what is happening on the ground and the word is not good


Really? Where are you getting your information from? Here is some data from the most comprehensive survey done to date on the Apple Watch:





















fatcat said:


> It gets some good reviews almost entirely from techies and geeks, the balance of reviews have been lukewarm to very poor


Really? Funny how the most comprehensive study done on the Apple Watch finds the exact opposite of what you are saying:



> As I listened to 14 different people tell me about their Apple Watch, I observed a pattern. Those whose job it was to think about the Apple Watch or who were early adopters who thought deeply about tech and the tech products they buy, were all much more critical of the watch. You could tell they evaluated it and thought about it deeply from every angle by their responses. Then I talked with teachers, firefighters, insurance agents, and those not in the tech industry and not hard-core techies. These groups of people couldn’t stop raving about the Apple Watch and how much they loved the product. It was almost as if the farther away people were from tech or the tech industry, the more they liked the Apple Watch.
> As we filtered the customer satisfaction answers by profile we saw something that fit this observation. *While every profile ranked high in one of the two top satisfaction responses, it was the non-tech users who ranked the highest for “very satisfied/delighted” by the Apple Watch.*















fatcat said:


> go to any major city in the usa and hit craigslist and do a search for "apple watch"


Go to any city in the world and hit craigslist and do a search for "iPhone". Tell me what you find, please. None for sale? 



fatcat said:


> android wear watches are rolling out in the next few weeks with features that rival apple and are likely easier to use (since any watch will be easier to use than an apple watch)


This one isn't even worth a response. Android wear is dead in the water. They'll start selling once the category takes off, at which point the Apple Watch will be an obvious hit that even you cannot deny. Samsung has already started copying Apple's UI, which is a good sign because it means Apple has it right (for the most part).

Looks like all your statements that you pass of as fact are pure fiction, as usual.


----------



## Just a Guy

I was on kijiji today, I saw multiple listings for the IPhone 4 in the $150+ range. Don't see many obsolete android phones going for that...hack, I don't see many new android phones getting that kind of money. 

I also know a bunch of people who bought multiple electronic devices who tried to resell them at a profit trying to cash in on the feeding frenzy. Most of them Lost money. 

I think referencing craigslist and kijiji is pretty meaningless.


----------



## GOB

Exactly. It's mostly meaningless, and if one were to derive any meaning from it, it would be that a product with a strong secondary market is likely a successful one.


----------



## Westerncanada

I think it is far too early in Apple's lifespan to start betting against it. 

I picked up some shares at $109 and again at $105 and will buy this one as far down as it goes. 


Apple is a World Class Company that is very undervalued, and if you think their eco-system is going to dry up because of losing share in China I think it's a sad mistake. 

Apple is one of the few stores i have ever been in all across North America that is packed full of people 24/7. 

http://business.financialpost.com/n...sought-after-big-prize-for-canadian-landlords

$7241/in Sales per SQ ft? Are you kidding me?


----------



## fatcat

john sculley is launching a line of smartphones that look good and have quality components (qulacomm and mediatek processors, sony camera, corning gorilla glass and dolby sound) called *obi*

http://www.obiworldphone.com/
http://www.engadget.com/2015/08/26/obi-worldphones/

the 3G phone with a quad-core processor starts at $129
the LTE 2Gig starts at $199

these are owned-outright off-contract phones

View attachment 5433


----------



## Just a Guy

Yes, he did wonderful things while at Apple too...like try to milk the product without upgrades. Let's not forget the underpowered Newton which was so good it was featured numerous times on shows like the Simpsons. 

The phones are built using standard, low cost parts, and he's hoping for differentiation based solely on design. Grab crappy parts, put them in a pretty package and hope people buy. The iPhone is doomed!

P.S. You missed reports showing the flop of the watch reported today. 

http://9to5mac.com/2015/08/27/idc-e...nits-sold-in-q2-20-of-all-wearable-shipments/

Still waiting for a suggested alternative...after all, they only had a 3% recovery today.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Yes, he did wonderful things while at Apple too...like try to milk the product without upgrades. Let's not forget the underpowered Newton which was so good it was featured numerous times on shows like the Simpsons.
> 
> The phones are built using standard, low cost parts, and he's hoping for differentiation based solely on design. Grab crappy parts, put them in a pretty package and hope people buy. The iPhone is doomed!
> 
> P.S. You missed reports showing the flop of the watch reported today.
> 
> http://9to5mac.com/2015/08/27/idc-e...nits-sold-in-q2-20-of-all-wearable-shipments/
> 
> Still waiting for a suggested alternative...after all, they only had a 3% recovery today.


sculley isn't important, what is interesting is the steady advancement on several fronts of high quality phones for less and less money ... a smartphone with these components and this design selling for $129 ? ... 

and these are targeted directly at apples prime growth markets like asia, africa and the middle east ?

the watch and apple pay and apple music are simply not presently positioned to provide the revenues needed to offset any drop in iphone sales ... smartwatches, whether apples or any other brands are not quite failures but are certainly stalled and far, far from mass consumer acceptance

so any quality phone that aims at the iphone should be taken seriously since the iphone is critical to apples bottom line


----------



## Just a Guy

Like the droid, moto, or any of the other "iPhone killers"...what about the galaxy line? This "new killer" isn't the same as when the iPhone came out to challenge blackberry, heck this isn't even an evolutionary product, let alone revolutionary.

I notice that you've changed your stance on the watch from "outright failure" to "stalled" (though, of course, all reports seem to say that the market is on of the fastest growing sectors in tech, but let's not let facts get in the way). When Apple first released the iPod, I thought it a complete waste of money and hard to use. I didn't go out any buy one. A few generations later however, it was not only cool, but a useful device. You know that the initial launch of the watch is predicted to have outsold the iPod by a significant amount right?

The best thing about saying "the end is nigh" is, sooner or later, you will be right (at least in a personal sense)...until then of course, you just look like a fool. 

As I pointed out, if Apple is so bad currently, what does that say about every other stock listed on the market? Most have higher P/E ratios, less free cash, higher debt, a smaller product line, lower margins, etc.

Are you also one of those people who hates people like Gretzky, Crosby, Jordan, Jackson, etc. just because they are touted as "the greatest athletes of their time"? Do you have a problem liking things that, by most measures, are simply better than others?

I have no doubt that Apple won't be one of the best stocks out there forever, that someday phones will probably even disappear as an item for sale. I also don't believe every product they launch will be a success (anyone remember the cube?). Not everything they touch needs to be gold for them to succeed but standing on the corner shouting unsubstantiated nonsense in hopes of creating a self fulfilling prophecy is rather silly.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Like the droid, moto, or any of the other "iPhone killers"...what about the galaxy line? This "new killer" isn't the same as when the iPhone came out to challenge blackberry, heck this isn't even an evolutionary product, let alone revolutionary.
> 
> I notice that you've changed your stance on the watch from "outright failure" to "stalled" (though, of course, all reports seem to say that the market is on of the fastest growing sectors in tech, but let's not let facts get in the way). When Apple first released the iPod, I thought it a complete waste of money and hard to use. I didn't go out any buy one. A few generations later however, it was not only cool, but a useful device. You know that the initial launch of the watch is predicted to have outsold the iPod by a significant amount right?
> 
> The best thing about saying "the end is nigh" is, sooner or later, you will be right (at least in a personal sense)...until then of course, you just look like a fool.
> 
> As I pointed out, if Apple is so bad currently, what does that say about every other stock listed on the market? Most have higher P/E ratios, less free cash, higher debt, a smaller product line, lower margins, etc.
> 
> Are you also one of those people who hates people like Gretzky, Crosby, Jordan, Jackson, etc. just because they are touted as "the greatest athletes of their time"? Do you have a problem liking things that, by most measures, are simply better than others?
> 
> I have no doubt that Apple won't be one of the best stocks out there forever, that someday phones will probably even disappear as an item for sale. I also don't believe every product they launch will be a success (anyone remember the cube?). Not everything they touch needs to be gold for them to succeed but standing on the corner shouting unsubstantiated nonsense in hopes of creating a self fulfilling prophecy is rather silly.


i bought my first apple in 1987 ... i don't need to be brought up to speed on a company i have been following, using extensively and recommending for 30 years

the smartwatch category may some day succeed, at the moment it is stalled (or we can call it failure to this point) in any event, it doesn't not appear to be anywhere close to adding much to apple's bottom line (we can't tell of course because unlike most other things they are keeping statistics secret, i wonder why ?)

initial sales of the ipod can't be compared to the watch since apple was a completely different company then and the economy was different and it was a completely different product

the only people touting the next big phone as an iphone killer are the marketing guys for various companies

what matters (to me) is the phone keep coming at both the high end and the low end and they are getting better and better for less and less money ... this is what matters ... it is proof of concept, namely that excellent phones can be made and sold at prices that will encourage people to go contract free

my thesis is still the same, apple is under significant and building pressure to grow iphone sales to move their stock price and nothing they have introduced lately changes that

it is entirely possible that apple will succeed at continuously growing their iphone sales but i think the back pressure on them is growing

any sign of a stumble and i see apple's stock getting punished much as it did after its last excellent numbers reveal

ps. you and i disagree about this company, which is fine and even interesting and fun but can we please keep personal insults out of the conversation ? ... i don't believe i have insulted you, if i have i apologize ... it is no fun to be barraged as some in this thread do with personal insults merely because you disagree with someone


----------



## Westerncanada

All phone components aside... Apples ecosystem is what makes that category sustainable for them. 

Eventually a low price model will certainly take share but do not believe i will be alive to see he day someone is able to overtake Apples eco-system/ phone business


----------



## Just a Guy

Apple being punished after record earnings is nothing new...that's happened many times during the years after Jobs returned. All through Apple's astronomical rebirth the stock fell on earnings because no one believed it was sustainable.

I've been reading years worth of postings here where people have been predicting Apple's doom...yet they continue to tick along. It gets tiring to read the "Apple Is Doomed" mantra when, as I pointed out many times, despite people's opinion, the stock is probably amount the best on the entire market. If you're going to try and kick a company, there are THOUSANDS of others who are easily better targets and easier to prove that they are duds. Why harp on this one continually? Try blackberry, yellow pages, IBM, or any of the penny stocks out there for a change. This isn't nor tell, breX, world com, Enron, etc. who are cooking the books.

Is Apple going to increase in value by another 5000% in 20 years? I doubt it, but could apple be the IBM of the 60's-80's quite possibly. 

You don't like apple, I get that. But by every metric out there, it's a better stock than most, so you must hate the stock market in general, yet only complain about Apple that doesn't make any sense.

I'm sorry about insulting you though, you're right it's uncalled for.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> If you're going to try and kick a company, there are THOUSANDS of others who are easily better targets and easier to prove that they are duds. Why harp on this one continually? Try blackberry, yellow pages, IBM, or any of the penny stocks out there for a change. This isn't nor tell, breX, world com, Enron, etc. who are cooking the books.
> 
> Is Apple going to increase in value by another 5000% in 20 years? I doubt it, but could apple be the IBM of the 60's-80's quite possibly.
> 
> You don't like apple, I get that. But by every metric out there, it's a better stock than most, so you must hate the stock market in general, yet only complain about Apple that doesn't make any sense.
> 
> I'm sorry about insulting you though, you're right it's uncalled for.


first, let me say that i do like apple, i certainly like their products ... a lot ... i started buying their gear 27 tears ago and have owned countless dozens of everything they make ... every piece of tech in my house is apple (i also like and use android and windows)

i like them so much that i wonder about the future of the company a fair bit, i will look at september 9 with interest to see what they are rolling out next

the "numbers" really don't mean anything to me relative to companies products and services, bad and good quarters will come and go but it is the product or service that ultimately builds a company (absent some catastrophe or ultra-bad management) ... most people buy companies based on their impression of the company (even people who say they buy based on the numbers)

i do see a case for apple being a home run stock for some time to come, but i think they are walking a fairly high balancing act in the process and i can see a case, primarily involving the iphone where they can take a bad fall and i think they will be punished

its all about the phone (apple releases no data about any of their new product rollouts) and the phone has competitors (like sculley) still coming out of the woodwork who are building amazingly good little phones ... this has got to take its toll on apple sales, especially at the quality and price points we are seeing


----------



## Just a Guy

Maybe they don't release individual product numbers anymore because the "analysts" are focused solely on those numbers. Back when they released the iPod, the analysts were focused on the declining desktop sales to justify the "Apple is doomed" theory. When the phone came out it was declining iPod and MacBook sales...now it's iPhone numbers. 

By not breaking out the products anymore, maybe apple can get away with this kind of "analysis" which has been haunting it's price for decades. Maybe it's all about the phone to you but, in reality, it's about 200 billion in the bank, 35%+ profit margins, leader in numerous categories, diversification, etc.

Cool technology, and best products are relatively meaningless in the computer industry. Microsoft never produced the "best" of anything, but it dominated the industry for years because they controlled the ecosystem. IBM was the same, they didn't produce the best computers, but they controlled the industry. What you, as an individual likes is meaningless. What the market likes as a whole is what's important.

Can this change? Certainly. IBM is nothing in computers now. Blackberry is dead. Microsoft is increasingly losing its relevance...yet all these companies are still traded and you do not seem to have issues with them. Apple is currently the top of the heap, like it or not. So far, there is no contender on the horizon as far as anyone can see. That could, of course, change tomorrow like when Apple released the iPhone to compete with blackberry or Microsoft released windows 3.1 to take over the GUI.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Maybe they don't release individual product numbers anymore because the "analysts" are focused solely on those numbers. Back when they released the iPod, the analysts were focused on the declining desktop sales to justify the "Apple is doomed" theory. When the phone came out it was declining iPod and MacBook sales...now it's iPhone numbers.
> 
> By not breaking out the products anymore, maybe apple can get away with this kind of "analysis" which has been haunting it's price for decades. Maybe it's all about the phone to you but, in reality, it's about 200 billion in the bank, 35%+ profit margins, leader in numerous categories, diversification, etc.
> 
> Cool technology, and best products are relatively meaningless in the computer industry. Microsoft never produced the "best" of anything, but it dominated the industry for years because they controlled the ecosystem. IBM was the same, they didn't produce the best computers, but they controlled the industry. What you, as an individual likes is meaningless. What the market likes as a whole is what's important.
> 
> Can this change? Certainly. IBM is nothing in computers now. Blackberry is dead. Microsoft is increasingly losing its relevance...yet all these companies are still traded and you do not seem to have issues with them. Apple is currently the top of the heap, like it or not. So far, there is no contender on the horizon as far as anyone can see. That could, of course, change tomorrow like when Apple released the iPhone to compete with blackberry or Microsoft released windows 3.1 to take over the GUI.


regarding the numbers, i suspect that apple isn't breaking out the numbers of the new products because they know they might well be weak (and this could change of course) i think one of the reasons they are taking it on the chin lately is because they are not disclosing numbers and people are free to make up their own (as the recent china crash debacle demonstrates or the confusion over apple music actual paying subscribers)

i have all kinds of issues with blackberry, ibm, facebook, dell, google but apple interests me (as does google and i see no reason we aren't facing huge disruption in online ads which should make everyone wary of google's future) and i go way back with them and know them the best

as you rightly point out ibm, microsoft and blackberry were once dominant and are now also rans, there is no reason to think this won't happen to apple too

let me be clear, i own apple (and all the rest) in an etf

i just believe that betting on any one tech stock is a mistake and that includes apple, even as powerful as it now looks


----------



## jaybee

fatcat said:


> i just believe that betting on any one tech stock is a mistake and that includes apple, even as powerful as it now looks


Fatcat, you raise some interesting points, although I tend to agree more with GOB and JAG. Mostly, because this stock is sitting on a *ridiculous mountain of cash*, and is trading @ 13 times earnings. The Apple ecosystem, and the strength of it's brand are extremely valuable.

You mentioned an innovation premium in the stock. The fundamentals don's agree with you.


----------



## Westerncanada

jaybee said:


> Fatcat, you raise some interesting points, although I tend to agree more with GOB and JAG. Mostly, because this stock is sitting on a *ridiculous mountain of cash*, and is trading @ 13 times earnings. The Apple ecosystem, and the strength of it's brand are extremely valuable.
> 
> You mentioned an innovation premium in the stock. The fundamentals don's agree with you.



Lots of exciting conversation about Apple TV 2 came out over the weekend.. with the insiders confirming it will offer Game play etc. Although everyone is being critical that it wont compete with Xbox or Playstation (which it wont) clearly they are tying all of the game play back to the ever expanding Apple Ecosystem.


----------



## jtc




----------



## fatcat

meh ...

the phone has better internals
the ipads have more zing
for the price of an ipad pro you can have an actual computer with a microsoft surface 
they have a $99 pencil ... meh

the tv is good, if i can get apps that are on my ipad on my apple tv, i will be in for a new tv

this is all stuff that we have seen from other companies or is an incremental upgrade from apple

i don't see any magic here, others will i'm sure


----------



## Westerncanada

fatcat said:


> meh ...
> 
> the phone has better internals
> the ipads have more zing
> for the price of an ipad pro you can have an actual computer with a microsoft surface
> they have a $99 pencil ... meh
> 
> the tv is good, if i can get apps that are on my ipad on my apple tv, i will be in for a new tv
> 
> this is all stuff that we have seen from other companies or is an incremental upgrade from apple
> 
> i don't see any magic here, others will i'm sure


No magic here for me either... but what i do see is several additional revenue streams that should deepen the OS Ecosystem across the business and tv platforms (where apple is non dominant in those sectors). 

I expect a bigger share surge when these products start hitting the shelf and they report earnings. .. 

Market Cap $1 trillion? 

I would bet on it


----------



## fatcat

Westerncanada said:


> Market Cap $1 trillion?
> 
> I would bet on it


well, lets see, the phone has gotten better but its still the same phone, the ipads are updated and added a new bigger one but ipad sales are not growing, so we have to wonder if the ipad refresh will be enough to change the sales arc, the tv is a new model and will certainly add revenue, i will almost certainly buy one and what else ??

i forget .. i don't see it, i don't see anything but incremental gains in some areas

nothing has changed from the overwhelming dependence on the iphone which plainly, must sell well for apple to prosper

oh yes, i forgot about the watch straps, there are the watch straps

a trillion ? wow ... maybe .. it looks to me to be a very twitchy bet with not a small amount of risk


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## Just a Guy

You may have missed the iPhone payment plan with yearly upgrade option...considering the price of the phone and disappearing subsidies was a big issue for some people.


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## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> You may have missed the iPhone payment plan with yearly upgrade option...considering the price of the phone and disappearing subsidies was a big issue for some people.


yes, i did miss that, its a good idea

i think the idea of basically leasing a phone like you do a car might have some appeal and would certainly be good for apple though i also believe that phone quality is getting so good we will soon see excellent phones for outright purchase for very small amounts of money like 200 or less

but yes, this will be a good move on apple's part and is certainly designed at building customer loyalty and strengthening the ecosystem


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## brad

Good summary in the NY Times today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/10/t...ne-still-breaks-the-rules-eight-years-on.html


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## kcowan

They seem to be entering the Surface space to take on laptops.


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## andrewf

It is smart for Apple to have a model in that space, but I'm not sure they'll sell many units. $1000 USD for the tablet and another $300 for the accessories--why not look at a Macbook?


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## brad

andrewf said:


> It is smart for Apple to have a model in that space, but I'm not sure they'll sell many units. $1000 USD for the tablet and another $300 for the accessories--why not look at a Macbook?


I agree: I think the iPad Pro will appeal to professionals in a few very specific fields where tablets are widely used: e.g., medical, education, graphic arts, etc.

Other than that, it's not very practical as a content creation device: apart from the lack of a file system there's the problem of having to use your finger for editing (selecting text, etc.). The stylus provides great precision for drawing and some of the editing tasks (picking fine items from small menus), but a trackpad would still be better.

This really doesn't compete with the Surface tablets as far as I can tell. Microsoft made a brilliant move by making one OS that works across multiple devices (Windows 10), instead of different OS for different devices the way Apple did it. In order to truly compete with Surface, the iPad Pro would need to be able to switch between full Mac OSX and iOS depending on whether the keyboard is attached. That won't happen.


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> I agree: I think the iPad Pro will appeal to professionals in a few very specific fields where tablets are widely used: e.g., medical, education, graphic arts, etc.
> 
> Other than that, it's not very practical as a content creation device: apart from the lack of a file system there's the problem of having to use your finger for editing (selecting text, etc.). The stylus provides great precision for drawing and some of the editing tasks (picking fine items from small menus), but a trackpad would still be better.
> 
> This really doesn't compete with the Surface tablets as far as I can tell. Microsoft made a brilliant move by making one OS that works across multiple devices (Windows 10), instead of different OS for different devices the way Apple did it. In order to truly compete with Surface, the iPad Pro would need to be able to switch between full Mac OSX and iOS depending on whether the keyboard is attached. That won't happen.


they actually had a microsoft exec out on stage at the event to demo office 365 on the pro

apple is moving in to the enterprise and it will be an interesting comparison of the pro vs the surface

though, since apple has been steadily deprecating their "big" software in favor of consumer software i will be amazed if we don't see an event in a year or two that marries osx to ios

when battery life and processing power is solved and one can push osx around on small devices there will be no reason to hold back and go all in on a common os

i have a big ipad and a mini, i am thinking about selling the large one and putting the money toward a surface which will allow me to do much more robust kinds of things


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## brad

fatcat said:


> they actually had a microsoft exec out on stage at the event to demo office 365 on the pro


Sure, but you can even use Office 365 on a Chromebook. I watched that demo with interest because most of my work is in Office, but it still didn't sell me on the iPad Pro.

Technically iOS already is a form of OSX; back when Steve Jobs first unveiled the iPhone he famously said "the iPhone runs OSX." But it's a vastly watered-down version. I suppose as Apple waters down OSX and beefs up iOS, there could be a meeting in the middle and the differences between the two could disappear.

I'm also planning to get a Surface once the Surface Pro 4 comes out: even though it's more expensive than a comparable Mac laptop, it would eliminate any need/desire to purchase a laptop and a tablet separately so it's cheaper overall. I like having a tablet and like having a laptop, but I don't like having to keep up two devices.


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## kcowan

I always consider the iPad work arounds to reduce the need for a right mouse button to be an exercise in futility. I will hang onto my laptop until they solve that problem. OTOH I am not a Surface candidate.


----------



## fatcat

brad said:


> Sure, but you can even use Office 365 on a Chromebook. I watched that demo with interest because most of my work is in Office, but it still didn't sell me on the iPad Pro.
> 
> Technically iOS already is a form of OSX; back when Steve Jobs first unveiled the iPhone he famously said "the iPhone runs OSX." But it's a vastly watered-down version. I suppose as Apple waters down OSX and beefs up iOS, there could be a meeting in the middle and the differences between the two could disappear.
> 
> I'm also planning to get a Surface once the Surface Pro 4 comes out: even though it's more expensive than a comparable Mac laptop, it would eliminate any need/desire to purchase a laptop and a tablet separately so it's cheaper overall. I like having a tablet and like having a laptop, but I don't like having to keep up two devices.


right, you give up simplicity with surface but you gain a lot of power ... i like my ipad mini more than the air so selling it and buying a surface would give me a laptop and a tablet

i am a huge fan of microsoft office and i don't like the watered down version i get on the mac (can't do portfolio slicer for example)


----------



## GOB

Cars must sell well for BMW to prosper
Oil must sell well for XOM to prosper
Ads must sell well for GOOG to prosper
Cigarettes must sell well for PM to prosper
Stupid customers need to keep being stupid for banks to prosper
...
...
iPhones must sell well for AAPL to prosper
Should I keep going?

Yet it's only for AAPL where people seem to think this is a problem. It's not. iPhone is growing at 3.5x the industry despite all these amazing cheap phones coming out daily. I wonder why? Because people want iPhones, not cheap fake iPhones. Oh, and iPhones grew 75% in China while the industry declined 4%. The Chinese market is flooded with cheap, "good" phones including the amazing Xiaomi, but the demand for them doesn't seem to be there. Oh, but now John Sculley's new phone is going to take away all of iPhone's growth. Crap. Better sell my shares. 

And by the way, AAPL has never been better diversified than they are today. Mac continues to grow, they keep setting App Store revenue records, iPad looks like it may be revitalized, and Watch, Apple Music and Apple TV are new entrants to the market that are going to grow nicely in the years to come. iPhone continues to dominate only because it keeps growing so damn fast - faster than anyone expected. But ignoramuses are spinning this into a negative. It's both ridiculous and hilarious, but it does allow me to keep loading up on the cheap.


----------



## andrewf

On a lighthearted note, this 3 year old webcomic predicting an ipad with a keyboard cover in 2015 has been making the rounds:

Salty language warning:
https://twitter.com/APZonerunner/status/641665840803352576/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw


----------



## Synergy

^ great little webcomic:biggrin:


----------



## jargey3000

GOD!.... I wish I understood HALF of what you're all talking about here....
So ... is it still a good time to be buying AAPL - or what? ...


----------



## fatcat

jargey3000 said:


> GOD!.... I wish I understood HALF of what you're all talking about here....
> So ... is it still a good time to be buying AAPL - or what? ...


 i own apple in QQQ (the top nasdaq 100 companies) which is a low cost fund that i like a lot for giving you technology, consumer cyclicals (netflix, tesla) and healthcare ... low mer, it is going sideways lately but i like the prospects for the future .. a less risky way to get technology but less potential for a large upside swing which you might get with apple


----------



## jargey3000

thanks fat... yes, i've been in & out of QQQQ over the years & done half-decent on it. ( matter of fact, I think when I first bought, back in the day ... it was just called QQQ? haha) Haven't tried it in quite a while, might be time to dip a toe in again?


----------



## fatcat

jargey3000 said:


> thanks fat... yes, i've been in & out of QQQQ over the years & done half-decent on it. ( matter of fact, I think when I first bought, back in the day ... it was just called QQQ? haha) Haven't tried it in quite a while, might be time to dip a toe in again?


what makes it such a great fund is the low mer and the fact that it gives you 3 sectors that are all very weak in canada - technology where you get MSFT, GOOG, FB and AAPL - consumer cyclicals where get NFLX, AMZN, SBUX and healthcare, all of these sectors are weak in canada so you get to balance your canadian holdings with one fund


----------



## jargey3000

amen!


----------



## Just a Guy

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2015/09/12/apple-hobbles-android-development/


----------



## andrewf

^ Not convinced. 3D touch is just the equivalent of a 'right click' on a PC or a 'long press' on Android (which it has been doing for _years_). Does Apple even have support for quickly launching the camera app (Samsung has implemented this as a double tap on the home button)... arguably that is a much more compelling feature, since you can launch the camera app before you can even see the screen.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> Does Apple even have support for quickly launching the camera app (Samsung has implemented this as a double tap on the home button)... arguably that is a much more compelling feature, since you can launch the camera app before you can even see the screen.


Sure, I think they've had this since the very first iPhone, or at least pretty soon thereafter. They used to use the double tap method. But now on the iPhone you just tap the Home button once and a camera icon appears, which you then drag up to open it. You can also use the volume buttons as shutter release buttons; if you have earbuds with volume buttons on them you can use those for the shutter as well, which is handy for tripod shots.


----------



## andrewf

Having to touch the screen is an inferior solution, as it requires you to see the little hitbox on the display and manipulate it.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> Having to touch the screen is an inferior solution, as it requires you to see the little hitbox on the display and manipulate it.


Maybe, but how often do people accidentally double-tap the home button on their phones, either when taking it out or having it in their pockets? I think that's why Apple changed it from the double-tap to a slide. I don't have an iPhone but I do have an iPad and it's as fast or faster than a double tap -- if you're getting ready to take a photo you hit the home button with your left thumb and swipe up with your right. You don't actually have to hit the camera icon, you just swipe up from the bottom right corner of the screen (which is where the icon is located)


----------



## godblsmnymkr

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sales-apple-iphones-pace-beat-131702283.html
!!!


----------



## GOB

andrewf said:


> ^ Not convinced. 3D touch is just the equivalent of a 'right click' on a PC or a 'long press' on Android (which it has been doing for _years_). Does Apple even have support for quickly launching the camera app (Samsung has implemented this as a double tap on the home button)... arguably that is a much more compelling feature, since you can launch the camera app before you can even see the screen.


It is not the same as a long press, and Apple has also had that for years. It is far more responsive and there are two levels of pressure for most apps, and potentially more for gaming.


----------



## fatcat

andrewf said:


> Having to touch the screen is an inferior solution, as it requires you to see the little hitbox on the display and manipulate it.


apple often leads in features (though a cursory glance at android and even windows shows that this isn't true, in this round apple is clearly copying from them) but risks having those features become too complex for users ... the watch is clearly too complex (which is one of the reasons it isn't meeting expectations) and i suspect force-touch might be as well ... otoh, it might be the next big thing if people learn it use it and love it and that will give apple a real advantage

i suspect we have are close to reaching "peak features" and the trick now will be to actually pare features back and make phones as robust and simple as possible

i for one can not wait until tomorrow so i can update to ios9 and clear the sludge out of all my apple gear since ios9 is actually designed to make ios devices actually work as opposed to being crammed with features that don't really work very well


----------



## Just a Guy

Could you please show some sources for things like "the watch is clearly too complex", other than click bait sites of course.

The latest surveys seem to be stating otherwise...

http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-watch-scores-high-satisfaction-marks-in-recent-poll/

On the other hand, don't bother...despite how many sources others post showing your just spouting personal opinions, it doesn't seem to matter.


----------



## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Could you please show some sources for things like "the watch is clearly too complex", other than click bait sites of course.
> 
> The latest surveys seem to be stating otherwise...
> 
> http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-watch-scores-high-satisfaction-marks-in-recent-poll/
> 
> On the other hand, don't bother...despite how many sources others post showing your just spouting personal opinions, it doesn't seem to matter.


sure: http://readwrite.com/2015/03/19/apple-watch-expectations-disappointment

http://www.gizmag.com/apple-watch-review-iwatch-review/37244/

Is the Apple Watch too complex for its own good? https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/apple-watch-too-complex-own-good-163013717.html?nf=1

http://9to5mac.com/2015/04/08/fifte...etails-revealed-in-early-apple-watch-reviews/


> 1. An Overly Complex UI. Concerns about over-complexity of the Apple Watch’s interface began to leak out after last month’s Spring Forward event, but quite a few reviews have quantified the issues, some in such detail that average people will get confused trying to keep track of all of them. The New York Times’ Farhad Manjoo led two separate articles with discussions of the Apple Watch’s “steep learning curve,” first noting in his review that:
> 
> It took three days — three long, often confusing and frustrating days — for me to fall for the Apple Watch. But once I fell, I fell hard… It was only on Day 4 that I began appreciating the ways in which the elegant $650 computer on my wrist was more than just another screen.


keep in mind that this is the new york times reviewer on an apple fanboy site

i could go on at length but it's not worth the time

you need to actually follow the commentary on the watch as i do and if you do you will see that this is a recurring theme, the watch is extremely complex to use and many people just don't have the interest to use it ... the vast majority of the initial penetration with the watch is to highly techy individuals

in other words, its a geek watch ... but there just aren't enough geeks to make this a profit center ... they are trying to make it a fashion watch and that is sort of working and sort of not working

apple's work ahead is to either a) make the ui simpler or b) convince more people that the watch is worth the time and trouble to learn

as to the spouting of personal opinions, show me someone on cmf who isn't spouting personal opinions, thats what we all do :hopelessness:


----------



## janus10

Just a Guy said:


> Could you please show some sources for things like "the watch is clearly too complex", other than click bait sites of course.
> 
> The latest surveys seem to be stating otherwise...
> 
> http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-watch-scores-high-satisfaction-marks-in-recent-poll/
> 
> On the other hand, don't bother...despite how many sources others post showing your just spouting personal opinions, it doesn't seem to matter.


Except through an index, I don't own APPL but I have a couple of iPods, an iPad, Apple TV and a Mac Air. But, I didn't view that poll of only 145 Watch owners as positive. Barely half were very satisfied and barely half would very likely recommend it to a friend.

I would be surprised if iPhone owners, or iPad owners or MacBook owners would have such a small majority of very satisfied owners based on my personal experience. I don't know anyone who owns or aspires to own an Apple Watch but I'm surrounded at work and home by Apple owners.

Of course, I don't understand why APPL stock owners in this thread feel the need to defend APPL nor seem to be open to possible disparaging opinions. Isn't it smarter to be on the lookout for dissenting opinions to challenge your own beliefs? It helps mitigate risk.

I've been around tech long enough to see Titans fall - I even remember when floppy disks were so expensive it was actually cheaper to buy IBMs OS/2 and reformat the disks! At my employer we laughed at how IBM might wonder why they were seeing an uptick in sales of their answer to Windows.

I also remember when MSFT made an investment in APPL to avoid antitrust action against their monopoly on the desktop. 

Does anyone remember when Netflix went cap in hand to Blockbuster asking for them to take a stake because they were worried about surviving against the Blockbuster behemoth while using a different business model? Sometimes it's better to be paranoid than complacent.


----------



## GOB

janus10 said:


> Of course, I don't understand why APPL stock owners in this thread feel the need to defend APPL nor seem to be open to possible disparaging opinions. Isn't it smarter to be on the lookout for dissenting opinions to challenge your own beliefs? It helps mitigate risk.


This is what I try to do. But when the dissenting opinions are mostly trash and have no basis in reality, it helps me sleep better at night. Saying things like "the Watch is not meeting expectations" is simply ridiculous because first of all, we don't know what expectations are and secondly, Apple themselves have stated sales are exceeding expectations. You can choose not to believe them but to turn it around and state the opposite as a fact is pure garbage. 

A 97% customer satisfaction rating on the Apple Watch (higher than the original iPod and iPhone), with more non-tech people being happy about it than techies, does not indicate to me an overly complex device or a device doomed to not be a profit generator. Individual reviews are pretty much meaningless as they are mostly just clickbait with dramatic headlines and nonsensical conclusions. It's what the masses think that really matter.


----------



## fatcat

janus10 said:


> I would be surprised if iPhone owners, or iPad owners or MacBook owners would have such a small majority of very satisfied owners based on my personal experience. I don't know anyone who owns or aspires to own an Apple Watch but I'm surrounded at work and home by Apple owners.


+1 from me ... it's a geek watch, only geeks have run out to buy this watch

i know plenty of boomers that own apple including most of my family, only one has expressed the slightest interest in the watch and he hasn't bought one

most of them would pay someone to sneak in their house and take away a piece of their technology let alone buy another piece of complex tech that they have to learn

farhad manjoo is as geeky as they come ... he writes for the new york times, this is his apple watch headline:

*Apple Watch Review: Bliss, but Only After a Steep Learning Curve*

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/09/t...nCollection&region=Footer&pgtype=article&_r=0


----------



## GOB

Smartphones were originally for geeks too. Computers too for that matter. And tablets. How quickly people forget, and how little vision people have.



> The market for wearable tech, led by Apple Watch and a range of connected fitness gadgets, is exploding, a survey showed Monday.
> 
> The report by research firm IDC said global wearable device shipments will reach 76.1 million units in 2015, up 163.6% from 2014. By 2019, worldwide shipments will reach 173.4 million units, a growth rate of nearly 23% over the next five years.
> 
> The biggest growth segment in this category is “smart wearables,” which includes watches and devices with more capabilities than “basic” wearables such as fitness bands.
> 
> “Smart wearables only account for about a third of the total market today while basic wearables, led by fitness trackers, account for the rest,” said IDC analyst Jitesh Ubrani, who also said smart wearables are on track to surpass the less functional basic wearable category in 2018.
> 
> “Smart wearables will quickly move from a smartphone accessory primarily focused on notifications to a more advanced wearable computer capable of doing more processing on its own,” he said in a statement.
> 
> IDC said it sees Apple Watch and the watchOS operating system capturing some 58% of the market this year, projecting sales for 13.9 million units. Apple has not released any sales figures so far. Android and Android Wear, the operating system from Google, is expected to grab a 17.4% market share with 4.1 million units selling this year, according to IDC.


----------



## indexxx

I'm still waiting for the iAbacus... (I have no idea what that means ;^)


----------



## janus10

GOB said:


> Smartphones were originally for geeks too. Computers too for that matter. And tablets. How quickly people forget, and how little vision people have.


Does anyone remember the Palm Pilot? It owned the market not unlike the iPod and iPad in their heydays. How stunning it was to see how quickly they went from THE tech item to own, at least for business people, to becoming a footnote in history.

How about 3DTV? Wasn't that supposed to convert those people who had yet to buy an HDTV or at least provide a revolutionary upgrade to those who had adopted HD? Despite the hype and the marketing and the industry bets, 3DTV never even had a heyday - not a single day.

I like watches but primarily analog watches. I have different styles and some have complications and one has a tourbillon.

I've seen examples of the smart wearables and nothing yet compels me to eschew what is built into my recent smartphone purchase and its accompanying functionality plus let my watches collect dust for any of the current offerings. Maybe that changes next year, maybe not. 

I 've stopped buying tech just because I want the latest. I don't even upgrade what I have. I guess I've lost that loving feeling.

Finally, IMO, this is a more balanced article on smart watches than the one you quoted: http://www.industryweek.com/emerging-technologies/does-apple-watch-need-more-time


----------



## Just a Guy

Fatcat, you make it sound like apple only sold a couple hundred as opposed to several million...

They jumped to the top of the product category in under a year, when the competition has been out for much longer.

While I have also seen Giants disappear overnight in the tech industry, I don't see any signs of it happening now. At worst I see Apple becoming the IBM blue chip stock of the next few decades. I don't see how anyone can criticize this company compared to anything else traded on the market (I could also point out no one has come up with a better publicly traded company as I challenged). Do I think they are the perfect stock, no. Would I buy more at this price, probably not. Do I know of worse companies currently being traded, nearly every one listed on the stock exchange.

If you're going to criticize apple right now, you should be in cash and never touch another equity. They lead in multiple product categories, they sit on mounds of cash, multiple revenue streams, their metrics are all stellar compared to most companies...

I don't understand where all the fear mongering is coming from. There are much easier companies to crucify...take Microsoft for example, makers of the beloved surface.


----------



## janus10

What other company builds only premium products, sells them at their price level and doesn't waver against competition, inspires fanaticism especially at every new product launch, and is not some small niche player satisfied with its little corner of the world?

It's truly remarkable what Apple has done and done it so well for so long. 

I do think it is a shame with how big and profitable they are, that they continue to use manufacturers in China that apparently have had serious issues with human rights abuse. I've not had the impression that Apples leaders are sincerely interested in putting conscientiousness above profits. With their clout, they could make significant structural changes on this planet. Not too many business leaders see that as their legacy, unfortunately.


----------



## GOB

^ I think Tim Cook does care about that stuff and there is plenty of evidence to show for it. It takes time. Apple has eliminated several suppliers that have been caught in violation. As an aside, I don't think working 60 hour weeks is a human rights problem. If so, I've been abused many times over the course of my career here in Canada. These people often want to work as much as they can to provide for their families. I don't see the problem.

I think Apple goes further than any other company. Could they do better? Yes, and they acknowledge that themselves. They get better every year. 

http://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/labor-and-human-rights/


----------



## james4beach

Curious what you guys think. AAPL is currently worth $658 billion (about as much as Berkshire Hathaway and Microsoft _combined_).

How high do you think the value can go? Just in approximate terms... do you think it's headed for $1 trillion market cap? Perhaps $2 trillion?

Apple is 13% of the NASDAQ-100. Do you think it will head towards being one quarter of the NASDAQ?


----------



## Westerncanada

james4beach said:


> Curious what you guys think. AAPL is currently worth $658 billion (about as much as Berkshire Hathaway and Microsoft _combined_).
> 
> How high do you think the value can go? Just in approximate terms... do you think it's headed for $1 trillion market cap? Perhaps $2 trillion?
> 
> Apple is 13% of the NASDAQ-100. Do you think it will head towards being one quarter of the NASDAQ?



When the OS becomes integrated with healthcare and the watch can diagnose some illness from the wrist... they will exceed a trillion. 


Who wouldnt pay to detect disease early? I would. . And i think this is where the apple watch will ultimately go. Not to mention the healthcare cost savings for our American friends if they can save a trip to the doctor.


----------



## brad

Just a Guy said:


> There are much easier companies to crucify...take Microsoft for example, makers of the beloved surface.


Actually I think Microsoft is having a renaissance -- it's a vastly different company under the current CEO than it was under Ballmer or Gates. Much more innovative and more open, much more attuned to users' needs. I think Microsoft has a bright future and I wouldn't be surprised if the new Windows 10 phones start becoming a more serious player in the smartphone market. The Surface has been a huge hit, despite the fact that it's more expensive than comparable Apple devices (e.g., a MacBook Air). I'm looking forward to hearing about the new products they're announcing in early October.


----------



## Just a Guy

The surface's "huge hit" is selling WAY less than the iPad which, just to remind everyone, is a Flop now, dead in the water product according to some. If it continues to outsell the surface, then the surface must be even worse.

Windows 10 is getting a huge number of negative reviews. As for being a smartphone operating system, it doesn't even rate a blip on the market share numbers....

Now, do I truly believe Microsoft is a terrible company? Not at all. But, if Apple is a dud, then Microsoft looks a lot worse.

As for Apple's human rights. They've actually publicly done things to try and improve the working conditions in their factories...unlike say NIKE. They went from being one of the top offenders according to green peace, to one of the best company's for environmental concerns, unlike many companies who remain on their list for decades. Are they perfect, no but, again, compared to companies like NIKE, they are much better. 

As for the $658B valuation, remember that 1/3 of that is cash in the bank. Neither Berkshire, nor Microsoft have anywhere near that amount of cash, not even combined. Are they worth $400B in land, patents, products, revenue streams and the fact that they add About $50B in profits every year? Hard to say.

Would I buy stock for capital gain, no. Do I think it's worth more...it get silly to think of a 1T valuation to me logically, but compared to ANYONE else, apple is one of the better companies on the market.

P.S. Microsoft has never produced "great" products. They are known for producing mediocre, bloat ware, that has a tendency to crash. They rarely produce a "best" or "innovative" product, yet they sell tons of product and no one bats an eye. They've had a string of flops (anyone remember BOB?), yet no one bats an eye. They are losing market share, and most of their products are being left behind with the changing times, no one bats an eye...

But everyone wants apple to be perfect, each product has to be perfect or the company is doomed. To me, Apple is more the Microsoft of the 80's and 90's and Microsoft, like IBM is in the decline.


----------



## kcowan

I like the stock because of its PE and PEG. Best around yet none of the pundits wants to talk about them.


----------



## brad

Just a Guy said:


> The surface's "huge hit" is selling WAY less than the iPad which, just to remind everyone, is a Flop now, dead in the water product according to some. If it continues to outsell the surface, then the surface must be even worse.
> 
> Windows 10 is getting a huge number of negative reviews. As for being a smartphone operating system, it doesn't even rate a blip on the market share numbers....


Comparing the Surface to the iPad is apples to oranges: the Surface is more like a fully functional laptop that doubles as a tablet when you remove the keyboard. The more fair comparison is with the Macbook Air. The Surface is more expensive than the Air, but it's cheaper than buying an Air plus an iPad. The iPad Pro doesn't really compete with the Surface either; it would have to run OSX in order to do that.

I've seen mostly positive reviews of Windows 10; the only strong negatives I've seen are about the privacy concerns. I'm pretty sure we'll see changes in the Windows mobile market share over the next year or two. It'll always be a relatively minor player because they were late to the party, but if enough demand can be built to encourage developers to do universal apps and port the Android and iOS apps over to Windows, it could be a very practical solution. It's a mistake to judge Microsoft on its past; it's a different company now.


----------



## Just a Guy

Microsoft was "late to the market"? They had a product before apple. The surface sells less than the air as well. It wouldn't surprise me if there are more air + iPad owners than surface.

All that being said, you're missing my point. My point isn't that Microsoft is bad, it's that if you want to argue that apple is bad, any argument you use currently will make any other company look REALLY bad if you use the same argument and hold that company to the same standards. If you like Microsoft today then, apple should also look good because, by every metric, it currently beats other companies. If you don't like the market as a whole, something I think is quite justified today, then it makes sense to criticize the company.


----------



## brad

Just a Guy said:


> All that being said, you're missing my point. My point isn't that Microsoft is bad, it's that if you want to argue that apple is bad, any argument you use currently will make any other company look REALLY bad if you use the same argument and hold that company to the same standards. If you like Microsoft today then, apple should also look good because, by every metric, it currently beats other companies. If you don't like the market as a whole, something I think is quite justified today, then it makes sense to criticize the company.


Oh, I wasn't arguing that Apple is bad, I was just arguing that we shouldn't dismiss Microsoft. I don't buy individual stocks, but if I did I'd probably buy both Apple and Microsoft, because I think both of them have promising futures ahead of them.

The point has been made here many times that "market share" has very little bearing on a company's value or viability as a business: profit is the relevant metric. Apple's share of the smart phone market is smaller than Google's, but Apple is apparently the only company that's making money in the smartphone business these days. It's also making money in its other businesses, maybe even in the watch business. Apple could continue to lose market share but still be incredibly profitable and healthy as a business. Apple was financially healthy even when it had less than 1% of the personal computer market. Very few people seem to understand this distinction.


----------



## fatcat

janus10 said:


> Finally, IMO, this is a more balanced article on smart watches than the one you quoted: http://www.industryweek.com/emerging-technologies/does-apple-watch-need-more-time


i owned a couple three palm pilots and a couple newtons, they were a lot of fun

as to the watch, maybe we should define terms, yes, the watch is selling but as the article says and what i read all over the place is that it isn't meeting expectations (of apple) and second and more important it is not penetrating outside the geek community (it's too complex for most people)

what i am saying is that this isn't the product that lessens dependence on the iphone to any great degree

the iphone is still the cart that pulls the horse, neither the watch, nor apple music nor apple pay has freed them from dependence on the iphone and that continues to make analysts rightly nervous

apple may pull it off but there are risks

as to the fortunes and futures of tech companies, it's worth remembering that microsoft has a market cap of $613 billion in 1999 

in today’s dollars that would be more than $873 billion, so apple has a way to go

the numbers be damned i think there is a magic premium baked into apple's stock and it is really is no longer a magic company, everything it has done since jobs died is just tech, excellent tech but no magic

ps. i own all kinds of big companies like j and j, cnr, td bank, kraft, mondelez, i could care less if you guys attack them all day long, it helps me think about them

i don't love any company for god sakes, i don't care if sun life or facebook live or freaking die

why do you boys get so touchy and weepy about yer precious companies ? honestly

so what if apple tanks ... take your profits and find a better company 

what is with the hand wringing and all the moaning and sobbing about your precious apple ?


----------



## james4beach

Just a Guy said:


> As for the $658B valuation, remember that 1/3 of that is cash in the bank. Neither Berkshire, nor Microsoft have anywhere near that amount of cash, not even combined.


Yes Apple does have a lot of cash (actually cash + bonds) but this is not relevant to valuation. You also have to consider liabilities. More relevant than cash is the book value = assets - liabilities.

Apple book value = 273,151 - 147,474 = $126 billion
Berkshire book value = 540,774 - 291,572 = *$249 billion*


----------



## MrMatt

Just a Guy said:


> The surface's "huge hit" is selling WAY less than the iPad which, just to remind everyone, is a Flop now, dead in the water product according to some. If it continues to outsell the surface, then the surface must be even worse.
> 
> Windows 10 is getting a huge number of negative reviews. As for being a smartphone operating system, it doesn't even rate a blip on the market share numbers....
> 
> P.S. Microsoft has never produced "great" products. They are known for producing mediocre, bloat ware, that has a tendency to crash. They rarely produce a "best" or "innovative" product, yet they sell tons of product and no one bats an eye. They've had a string of flops (anyone remember BOB?), yet no one bats an eye. They are losing market share, and most of their products are being left behind with the changing times, no one bats an eye...
> 
> But everyone wants apple to be perfect, each product has to be perfect or the company is doomed. To me, Apple is more the Microsoft of the 80's and 90's and Microsoft, like IBM is in the decline.


Others have said it, but the Surface is actually a fully functional computer, not the limited tool an iPad is.
Windows 10 is much better than Windows 8, most reviewers agree.

As far as greatness, Microsoft made a lot of awesome product in the 80's.
As far as stability, my laptop recently upgraded to Windows 10 has been rock solid, much more stable than an iPad. And much easier to troubleshoot. Apple products are almost impossible to troubleshoot when things go wrong.


----------



## brad

MrMatt said:


> As far as stability, my laptop recently upgraded to Windows 10 has been rock solid, much more stable than an iPad. And much easier to troubleshoot. Apple products are almost impossible to troubleshoot when things go wrong.


I was with you until you got to this: I've never heard of any instability in iPads - I've had once since 2011 and there are at least 20 iPads among my friends and family; none of them have ever reported any problems. It's been just as stable as Mac OSX, which last crashed on me in 2001 or 2002, which makes sense because iOS is a variant of OSX.

I actually just bought a Surface Pro 3, and while I love it as a laptop replacement I have to say that in tablet mode it's a joke. Microsoft is about five years behind Apple in the tablet operating system design department. Windows 10 is excellent, but Microsoft has a long way to go before its tablet experience matches that of the iPad.


----------



## fatcat

microsoft software works better as tablet software on apple ipads than it does on windows though microsoft is trying hard to change that

i have also heard that win-10 is very strong other than the privacy sucking initial setup

all my pads were solid (other than increasing slowness if you owned older machines and didn't upgrade) until ios8 which was a disaster, just downloaded ios9 and so far so good, it should be better since the point was to reduce the clutter and streamline the os

microsoft has produced many great products, office being a prime example of an outstanding piece of software
microsoft is making a recovery in some areas quite well, the new surface 4 will be fun to watch

they are both good companies who both wax and wane in terms of robustness and success thats why i would rather own them both (and google) rather than bet on any one of them


----------



## MrMatt

brad said:


> I was with you until you got to this: I've never heard of any instability in iPads - I've had once since 2011 and there are at least 20 iPads among my friends and family; none of them have ever reported any problems. It's been just as stable as Mac OSX, which last crashed on me in 2001 or 2002, which makes sense because iOS is a variant of OSX.
> 
> I actually just bought a Surface Pro 3, and while I love it as a laptop replacement I have to say that in tablet mode it's a joke. Microsoft is about five years behind Apple in the tablet operating system design department. Windows 10 is excellent, but Microsoft has a long way to go before its tablet experience matches that of the iPad.


Well I get crashes on the iPad, so does my 3 year old.

Have you found a way to clear that large "other" space on your ipad? Mine is over 6gb, which is just insane.


----------



## brad

MrMatt said:


> Well I get crashes on the iPad, so does my 3 year old.
> 
> Have you found a way to clear that large "other" space on your ipad? Mine is over 6gb, which is just insane.


I wonder if it's the newer ones that are capable of running the more advanced features that are crashing. Mine's a four-year-old model and has been rock solid, and most people I know have models that are at least 2-3 years old. Same goes for "other," on my iPad it's less than a gigabyte; iOS 9 takes up a lot less space than iOS 8 and maybe they solved the "other" problem. If not, see https://discussions.apple.com/thread/2562027?start=0&tstart=0


----------



## MrMatt

brad said:


> I wonder if it's the newer ones that are capable of running the more advanced features that are crashing. Mine's a four-year-old model and has been rock solid, and most people I know have models that are at least 2-3 years old. Same goes for "other," on my iPad it's less than a gigabyte; iOS 9 takes up a lot less space than iOS 8 and maybe they solved the "other" problem. If not, see https://discussions.apple.com/thread/2562027?start=0&tstart=0


Yeah, I shouldn't have to wipe and reinstall to wipe temp files.
Apparently it's a somewhat known bug, that Apple doesn't care to resolve.

I have one of the first batches of Retina display iPads, I am fully up to date on the OS and all apps. 
The iPads have been okay, but not nearly as solid as my Linux machine or Android phones, they also have a number of usability problems that shows a lack of thought, and make them hard to use. 

That being said, despite my iPads flaws, Apple is still very profitable, and I'm a shareholder.


----------



## Westerncanada

Anyone see the articles confirming apples 2019 Electric Car?


----------



## Valueinvestor

Is the apple watch released yet? I have not noticed one in my travels this past month. When the iPhone 4/5/6 came out they were everywhere. 

For the apple electric car I don't understand why Apple is making a car while also developing software for competing car companies


----------



## Westerncanada

Valueinvestor said:


> Is the apple watch released yet? I have not noticed one in my travels this past month. When the iPhone 4/5/6 came out they were everywhere.
> 
> For the apple electric car I don't understand why Apple is making a car while also developing software for competing car companies


Practice with other companies so they can perfect it for theres?


----------



## Just a Guy

And have them pay for your r&d at the same time...

It worked with Motorola and the smart phone...does anyone remember their iTunes phone?

Build what They ask for, develop the real product and release it to the general population...even if they are right, you win.


----------



## andrewf

There's a teensy bit more to building a car than the infotainment system.


----------



## Just a Guy

Could probably say the same about incorporating iTunes into a phone and a smartphone.


----------



## indexxx

I've thought for years that they would eventually go into other industries, particularly automotives, although I thought (or hoped, being in the industry) that they would first get into POS systems for retail, restaurants, etc. They have the cash to do anything, hire anyone, spend as much time on development as they want, and besides phones and TVs, almost everyone has cars so it's a natural target for disruption.


----------



## Just a Guy

They made the Dick Tracy watch that no one else could, maybe they'll make the Jetson's flying car...


----------



## janus10

brad said:


> I wonder if it's the newer ones that are capable of running the more advanced features that are crashing. Mine's a four-year-old model and has been rock solid, and most people I know have models that are at least 2-3 years old. Same goes for "other," on my iPad it's less than a gigabyte; iOS 9 takes up a lot less space than iOS 8 and maybe they solved the "other" problem. If not, see https://discussions.apple.com/thread/2562027?start=0&tstart=0


I have an old iPad and I've grown increasingly frustrated how slow and unreliable it is. It actually has become slower with every iOS update and more unreliable. Conspiracy theorists say this is a way for Apple to encourage a more frequent upgrade path.

For me, I just dusted off a massively cheaper Nook HD+ and put Cyanogen Mod android O/S and it solved all of the issues with a much sharper screen and multitasking. The battery life isn't as good however.

And, I have had both a MacBook Pro and Air in the last 3 years (current work unit) and not only have had both of them crash but had the disk drive become completely unusable. Had to reformat and reinstall everything to restore it back to working condition. The service centre did not replace it and couldn't explain what happened.

There is no perfect company out there. I personally haven't seen the premium Apple charges for its products (except for the old iPods) is justified based on performance and functionality. And I especially don't like closed systems (proprietary connectors, exorbitantly priced peripherals, iTunes, etc). I am not about buying something primarily because of its brand or status.


----------



## fatcat

janus10 said:


> I have an old iPad and I've grown increasingly frustrated how slow and unreliable it is. It actually has become slower with every iOS update and more unreliable. Conspiracy theorists say this is a way for Apple to encourage a more frequent upgrade path.
> 
> For me, I just dusted off a massively cheaper Nook HD+ and put Cyanogen Mod android O/S and it solved all of the issues with a much sharper screen and multitasking. The battery life isn't as good however.
> 
> And, I have had both a MacBook Pro and Air in the last 3 years (current work unit) and not only have had both of them crash but had the disk drive become completely unusable. Had to reformat and reinstall everything to restore it back to working condition. The service centre did not replace it and couldn't explain what happened.
> 
> There is no perfect company out there. I personally haven't seen the premium Apple charges for its products (except for the old iPods) is justified based on performance and functionality. And I especially don't like closed systems (proprietary connectors, exorbitantly priced peripherals, iTunes, etc). I am not about buying something primarily because of its brand or status.


i have bought countless pieces of apple hardware for almost 30 years and can count on one hand, literally, (and i am using the word literally, literally) the number of times i have had their hardware break ... they make the best computing hardware around

the upgrade cycle thing is true but it isn't a conspiracy, it's a function of the fact that they relentlessly push the envelope ...


----------



## DollaWine

janus10 said:


> I have an old iPad and I've grown increasingly frustrated how slow and unreliable it is. It actually has become slower with every iOS update and more unreliable. Conspiracy theorists say this is a way for Apple to encourage a more frequent upgrade path.
> 
> For me, I just dusted off a massively cheaper Nook HD+ and put Cyanogen Mod android O/S and it solved all of the issues with a much sharper screen and multitasking. The battery life isn't as good however.
> 
> And, I have had both a MacBook Pro and Air in the last 3 years (current work unit) and not only have had both of them crash but had the disk drive become completely unusable. Had to reformat and reinstall everything to restore it back to working condition. The service centre did not replace it and couldn't explain what happened.
> 
> There is no perfect company out there. I personally haven't seen the premium Apple charges for its products (except for the old iPods) is justified based on performance and functionality. And I especially don't like closed systems (proprietary connectors, exorbitantly priced peripherals, iTunes, etc). I am not about buying something primarily because of its brand or status.


Like fatcat said, I've been suing Apple products for years and haven't had any issues. I use my iPhone, Macbook Pro and iPad daily with no issues. Nothing's ever broken or suddenly stopped working, even my old iPods. If I do have a small issue, it's always a software issue, for example my Macbook's webcam sometimes doesn't work. All I have to do is reset it and it's fixed. Takes 15 seconds to reboot my computer, I don't mind doing that once in a while in exchange for amazing quality products and customer service.

But on the flip side, I also know people who have notoriously bad luck and have their iPhone stop working out of the blue. But they're obviously a VERY small minority. And it doesn't help one particular friend's case who was complaining that his iPhone 4 is slow... that technology is from what, 2010? Gotta keep up. I have another friend whose Macbook Pro is very slow and bogged down - but he got it in 2009. You can't really blame the product for aging, or blame the company for developing new software that requires newer, faster technology. It's just the way the game goes and it's how they keep you buying new things. As for _new_ products crashing and failing... well, can't say much in defense of that. Not every single product shipped is 100% flawless, some are prone to issues, it's inevitable. Luckily I've never been on the bad side of it. But like you said, no company is perfect.


----------



## MrMatt

Just a Guy said:


> They made the Dick Tracy watch that no one else could, maybe they'll make the Jetson's flying car...


What does the Apple watch actually do that the current competitors doesn't?
Or does it only appear superior vs the much older products like Galaxy gear?


----------



## MrMatt

fatcat said:


> i have bought countless pieces of apple hardware for almost 30 years and can count on one hand, literally, (and i am using the word literally, literally) the number of times i have had their hardware break ... they make the best computing hardware around
> 
> the upgrade cycle thing is true but it isn't a conspiracy, it's a function of the fact that they relentlessly push the envelope ...


Funny, my Android phone gets better with every OS upgrade, and my iPad gets worse.


----------



## Siciliano698

Hi Gob,

What are your thoughts/projections for this 4th qtr earnings report ? 

Thanks.


----------



## brad

MrMatt said:


> Funny, my Android phone gets better with every OS upgrade, and my iPad gets worse.


The latest iOS actually improved my iPad 2 quite a bit, which was getting slow and buggy under iOS8. It's more responsive now, Safari works again (it was totally broken in iOS8), apps are generally more stable overall (I've never had a system crash on my iPad but some apps were crashing frequently under iOS8). This is an older iPad so it can't support some of the new features in iOS but that doesn't seem to be a problem; I think you get a customized version of iOS based on your device's capabilities because I've heard from others that the software update download size varies according to which device you have.


----------



## godblsmnymkr

http://appleinsider.com/articles/15...-sales-share-in-china-outpacing-xiaomi-huawei =)))) fingers crossed for after the bell


----------



## fatcat

ios9 is a winner and works so far well on my 2 ipads and ipod touch and iphone ... 

i upgraded to the new ipod for apple music (it is the same as the 5th gen but double the ram and has 8x processor which means i am getting better performance) which i find buggy and confusing so far

earnings are out and the iphone is once again in the spotlight ... this is, as always, my concern

now that google has google red out (which is think is a compelling product on both android and ios) and spotify is still the big dog, apple music will have strong competition, i hear they are inching toward android soon which is smart

i would be amazed if music, pay or the watch put up big numbers which they won't because apple won't break them out 

the ipad pro remains a mystery to me, i love the speed it will offer and the real estate but it is much heavier and with a keyboard will get you right up to an actual laptop

this is the direction we are heading though, toward the convertible combination devices

this christmas selling season is going to be strong for microsoft, apple and google and others ... i see qqq had a nice pop

we are making a shift in the kinds of devices we use as well as the linkage and networking with tv, radios, speakers etc and people want new stuff


----------



## Sampson

brad said:


> The latest iOS actually improved my iPad 2 quite a bit, which was getting slow and buggy under iOS8. It's more responsive now, Safari works again (it was totally broken in iOS8), apps are generally more stable overall (I've never had a system crash on my iPad but some apps were crashing frequently under iOS8). This is an older iPad so it can't support some of the new features in iOS but that doesn't seem to be a problem; I think you get a customized version of iOS based on your device's capabilities because I've heard from others that the software update download size varies according to which device you have.


me2..

I was quite disappointed and barely used it for a while... although I have found that the new OS likes to try and 'trick' me a little, i.e. there is animation showing activity, but some load times are still fairly slow. At least I don't think it is going to crash... or hang... which it did a LOT with iOS8


----------



## cn_habs

It's getting more and more frustrating to be long AAPL and GILD.  
Meanwhile, I see GOOGL and AMZN take off ...


----------



## MrMatt

brad said:


> The latest iOS actually improved my iPad 2 quite a bit, which was getting slow and buggy under iOS8. It's more responsive now, Safari works again (it was totally broken in iOS8), apps are generally more stable overall (I've never had a system crash on my iPad but some apps were crashing frequently under iOS8). This is an older iPad so it can't support some of the new features in iOS but that doesn't seem to be a problem; I think you get a customized version of iOS based on your device's capabilities because I've heard from others that the software update download size varies according to which device you have.


iOS 9 actually seems a bit better, but that only makes up for iOS 7 &8.
Android L was a wonderful upgrade, and M is looking good too.

Not a huge fan of the product, but I'm long AAPL for a reason.


----------



## indexxx

"Revenue growth greater than actual revenues of 90% of Fortune 500 companies, Tim Cook says."


----------



## indexxx

cn_habs said:


> It's getting more and more frustrating to be long AAPL and GILD.
> Meanwhile, I see GOOGL and AMZN take off ...


Sure... but hindsight is always 20/20. I wish I'd held Visa, and Ford, and...and...and...


----------



## cn_habs

indexxx said:


> Sure... but hindsight is always 20/20. I wish I'd held Visa, and Ford, and...and...and...


V and MA are some quality stocks that I've been waiting to buy for a while now but they are rarely at fair value unless another flash crash happens again.

IMHO F and GM have been very average due to their international exposures in the past year or so...


----------



## indexxx

Yes, but my point is that a few years ago, I bought V at around 30 and F at around 10, and then sold out of impatience.


----------



## Just a Guy

Here's a fun article which may put things into perspective for some...

http://www.businessinsider.com/crazy-facts-about-apple-2015-10


----------



## Taraz

Apple's PE ratio is crazy low (12.62) compared to its contemporaries, Microsoft (36.05) and Google (34.59). Right now, it's comparable or lower than some big, boring companies like Walmart (12.04), Honeywell (18.06), Procter and Gamble (24.97), McDonalds (24.61). Apple seems like a screaming deal right now. 

Is Apple far less innovative than Google and Microsoft, and will it continue to fall behind? I doubt it. The watch was a flop, but I don't think anyone expected it to have the popularity of an iPad or an iPhone. 

Disclaimer: I own stock in Microsoft & Google. I have recently purchased some Apple stock.


----------



## HaroldCrump

The Swiss National Bank & the Norwegian Sovereign Fund must have stopped buying....

*They are now buying Micro$oft and Facebook*, which explains the nonsensical valuation of those two stocks.


----------



## Just a Guy

I seem to remember, when I first got into stocks, that conventional wisdom said to never invest in companies with a P/E > 15. Try and buy when they are in the 10-15 range...under 10 was even better.

I wonder which group was wrong, the "old guard", or the new ones who think 30+ P/E is a "deal".

Of course, those who lived through the "dot com" bust probably know the answer...but that doesn't seem affect "modern" investment strategy.


----------



## indexxx

ouch...


----------



## Just a Guy

Apple is one of the most manipulated stocks out there...

Tons of unsubstantiated rumours running around, not saying they aren't true, but no one really knows. Apple refuses to comment. There is a famous video with Jim Cramer where he outlines how he'd make up a rumour about Apple to "theoretically" boost his hedge fund on a dull day.

Anyone who follows this stock has seen this happen many times in the past.

They also were one of the only stocks to announce record quarters only to see their price drop.

Fundamentally, I don't see any changes...sounds like they had a great Christmas and thanksgiving...we'll find out soon enough.


Here, does this look familiar? It's from 3 years ago...component cut rumours and all..

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/24/apple-earnings-plunge-are-you-panicking-yet.aspx


----------



## janus10

How is it that this thread is not locked yet has seen no activity for almost 4 months?! Not enough interest in AAPL? Not enough going on with recent ER?


----------



## kcowan

I think it remains open because it is an actively traded stock. Now it is so covered by the press and the stock pundits, that posting here would be redundant. There are articles every day. Right now it is awaiting the next iPhone to restore growth. Also the Chinese economy certainly hurt.


----------



## Just a Guy

Nothing has really changed, what's there to talk about. Apple is still making boatloads of money.

While the market for smartphones may be peaking, becoming commodities, no iPhone killer has emerged. Anything that affects Apple here, will affect the competition worse as Apple continues to get the majority of the profits in this sector. 

If Apple doesn't come out with something new, or evolve the watch into something drool worthy (history says it takes 3 generations for electronic gadgets to generally get there). It won't be a growth play going forward. Then again, with their current valuation, I always thought Apple as a growth play had to end soon anyway.


----------



## indexxx

AAPL at new 52-week low; dropped below $90 today.


----------



## Hippie

indexxx said:


> AAPL at new 52-week low; dropped below $90 today.


"There's a sale at Penny's"


----------



## jargey3000

So... I see Mr. Buffett (Warren, not Jimmy) just bought nearly 10 million shares. Should that be a signal to us average joes?


----------



## none

birkshire is worth 15.4 billion so they just too a 5% exposure to apple.


----------



## GoldStone

jargey3000 said:


> So... I see Mr. Buffett (Warren, not Jimmy) just bought nearly 10 million shares. Should that be a signal to us average joes?


No jargey, Mr. Buffett didn't buy AAPL. It was either Ted or Todd. They each manage about $9B for Berkshire, and they have a full autonomy to make their own investment decisions.

Back in February, someone asked Charlie Munger about Berkshire's investment in GM. His response:










AAPL is the same deal. The size of investment is too small to be Buffett's.


----------



## GoldStone

none said:


> birkshire is worth 15.4 billion so they just too a 5% exposure to apple.


LOL. This is so wrong.

Dataroma and Whalewisdon both show that Apple investment is worth *0.83%* of BRK's portfolio.

http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=brk
http://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc#/tabholdings_tab_link


----------



## humble_pie

does today's revelation mean that a) there's hope for aapl, or b) there's hope for berkshire


----------



## GoldStone

combine aapl's cash hoard and brk's cash hoard
put them in a stack of one dollar bills
pretty sure it will touch the moon

and they keep printing more cash every quarter

yeah, I'd say there is a faint glimmer of hope


----------



## humble_pie

what is cash when one is over the hill


----------



## GoldStone

value vs growth yada yada yada


----------



## none

GoldStone said:


> LOL. This is so wrong.
> 
> Dataroma and Whalewisdon both show that Apple investment is worth *0.83%* of BRK's portfolio.
> 
> http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=brk
> http://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc#/tabholdings_tab_link


I believe you. Seems like Birkshire buying that much is no big deal at all.


----------



## Vitalogy80

humble_pie said:


> what is cash when one is over the hill


Over the hill? Didn't they sell 200M iPhones roughly last year?


----------



## Pluto

GoldStone said:


> value vs growth yada yada yada


There is no value vs growth dilemma. Growth is a component of value.


----------



## Pluto

Interesting AAPL - Win all/lose all bet story. Guy got 2.5 mil from rich uncle. Trades and what not, now down to < 400,000. His last gamble is on APPL puts. He tells his story on reddit and details his put strategy- linked below. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ple-getting-crushed-after-earnings-2017-01-30

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreet...well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/


AAPL reports tomorrow after market close.


----------



## Nerd Investor

Pluto said:


> Interesting AAPL - Win all/lose all bet story. Guy got 2.5 mil from rich uncle. Trades and what not, now down to < 400,000. His last gamble is on APPL puts. He tells his story on reddit and details his put strategy- linked below.
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ple-getting-crushed-after-earnings-2017-01-30
> 
> https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreet...well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/
> 
> 
> AAPL reports tomorrow after market close.


Wow, this guy's an idiot. I was already interested in earnings because of my own sizable position but this certainly adds a lot of additional drama.
I don't think they'll miss earnings personally, but AAPL is funny sometimes. Even if they beat estimates the stock could still drop a bit.


----------



## cashinstinct

If at least he did use the 2.5 M$ for cars, drugs, alcohol, travel or other expenses.... he instead did stupid stuff on a computer.


----------



## Nerd Investor

cashinstinct said:


> If at least he did use the 2.5 M$ for cars, drugs, alcohol, travel or other expenses.... he instead did stupid stuff on a computer.


I don't know... at least blowing it on cars, drugs, booze and travel would have given him some temporary enjoyment


----------



## Just a Guy

You got to love the guys who promise to spend all their money on themselves if they get a huge windfall. Such selflessness, makes you wonder why god doesn't bless them all.


----------



## Nerd Investor

That guy must be crapping his pants right now waiting for earnings...


----------



## gibor365

Nerd Investor said:


> Wow, this guy's an idiot. I was already interested in earnings because of my own sizable position but this certainly adds a lot of additional drama.
> I don't think they'll miss earnings personally, but AAPL is funny sometimes. Even if they beat estimates the stock could still drop a bit.


Very good Q results for AAPL


> Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $3.36 beats by $0.14.
> 
> Revenue of $78.4B (+3.3% Y/Y) beats by $1.02B.


Actually was planing to increase AAPL position if AAPL will be in-line and go down tomorrow


----------



## Nerd Investor

Yup, I'm pretty pleased with the results. We'll see how much of that good news works its way into the stock price when the dust settles tomorrow.


----------



## Just a Guy

Up 3% on average after hours...


----------



## Argonaut

Can't believe WallStreetBets made it here, haha. The guy was trolling and using a paper money account.


----------



## cashinstinct

Argonaut said:


> Can't believe WallStreetBets made it here, haha. The guy was trolling and using a paper money account.


I hope so ! 

AAPL now $128.12 USD as of typing this.


----------



## indexxx

Just bumping the AAPL thread- amazing that the last post, in February, mentions $128.12; stock hit an all-time high today of $162.19


----------



## jargey3000

yup....another "woulda, coulda, shoulda" situation for me.....sigh...
(I was gonna dive in back last year some time.....when it was under $100 I think!)

Now.....will i be revisiting this thread in 2018.....saying i should got onboard at $162??????


----------



## fatcat

jargey3000 said:


> yup....another "woulda, coulda, shoulda" situation for me.....sigh...
> (I was gonna dive in back last year some time.....when it was under $100 I think!)
> 
> Now.....will i be revisiting this thread in 2018.....saying i should got onboard at $162??????


i would never buy an individual tech stock even though i have been buying way too much apple gear for the last 30 years ... i have QQQ which has a large allocation of apple which is fine with me

i was very negative on them a few years ago because i doubted their transition away from the iphone

i am being proved dead wrong because of the power of apple's closed ecosystem and security and privacy which is becoming a big issue

but mostly i didn't count in the degree to which phones have become fetishized

samsung, google and huawei make phones that are just as good and even much better but many people, especially young people just have some kind of attraction and attachment to their phones that i haven't anticipated

the iphone 8 will be very, very expensive but it will still sell very well


----------



## kcowan

Buffett bought AAPL when his advisors realized it was not a tech company.


----------



## ian

I bought Dell a long time ago for the same reason. It was, at that time, an assembly and distribution firm. Just like Wal Mart is all about inventory management and distribution efficiency.


----------



## indexxx

jargey3000 said:


> yup....another "woulda, coulda, shoulda" situation for me.....sigh...
> (I was gonna dive in back last year some time.....when it was under $100 I think!)
> 
> Now.....will i be revisiting this thread in 2018.....saying i should got onboard at $162??????


I've been really lucky with AAPL, mostly selling near its tops and buying near bottoms, or holding when I really wanted to sell but resisted because I felt it would recover, with the odd hiccup here and there. I sold at about $115 on stop loss and waited until right around $100 to jump back in; aside from index funds, it's been my one continuing core success in my portfolio ever since I started taking control of my own finances several years ago and is still my largest holding by far. It allowed me to make enough for a downpayment for my condo, thus setting me up much better for retirement. You could say I have loyalty to Apple's products and ecosystem at this point. I also feel their products suit my tech needs best in terms of functionality, security, and durability. Writing this on a 2010 MacBook Pro that still holds eight hours of charge on the original battery and has worked flawlessly from day one, except for replacing one hard drive and the power cable. All my PC computers were basically paperweights after about five years.


----------



## Just a Guy

As I've said many times in the past, right now there is no other company on the market that can compare to apple in any metric. Not that I'd suggest people buy in at this price, but it something came along right now to crush apple's price, the rest of the market would be hit a lot harder since none of the other companies compare as well.


----------



## Just a Guy

Here's an interesting article...

https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2017/8/15/apple-has-the-best-business-model-for-generating-cash


----------



## fatcat

and their service and support is maybe the best of not only technology companies but of any company i use ... and that includes amazon who are very good ... but i still am allergic to owning any tech company outright since i have seen too much change in tech in the last 30 years ... i am happy to hold them via QQQ


----------



## steve41

Here's a different (non-investment) approach.....

Bill Gates has donated gazillions to charity and humanitarian causes.
Steve Jobs was a jerk.

I wouldn't touch an apple product or stock.


----------



## Mike-RetireEarly

Steve Jobs might have been a jerk at times, but not everyone wants to publicize their donations, see http://appleinsider.com/articles/13...oney-away-anonymously-for-more-than-2-decades


----------



## Just a Guy

steve41 said:


> Here's a different (non-investment) approach.....
> 
> Bill Gates has donated gazillions to charity and humanitarian causes.
> Steve Jobs was a jerk.
> 
> I wouldn't touch an apple product or stock.


Guess you won't be buying anything American made either then (good luck with that) since their president is also a jerk in most people's opinion...


----------



## Just a Guy

Interesting article showing how Apple stacks up in the tech world...

http://www.zdnet.com/article/apple-still-towers-over-other-it-companies-in-quarterly-results/


----------



## TomB19

Apparently, berksire hatharway has increased it's stake in apple significantly in 1q18.


----------



## kcowan

and again by 75 million shares. I heard 270 million, the 3rd largest holder.


----------



## james4beach

AAPL is now worth slightly over *$1 TRILLION*

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL?p=AAPL

Maybe it's time to load up now, before it rockets to $2 trillion?


----------



## Just a Guy

Something is wrong in a world where apple is considered the most valuable company. Not that I'm complaining since I own them, but it really makes me shake my head. I wouldn't buy apple today, heck I wouldn't have bought it at half the price.


----------



## james4beach

It reminds me of companies like Citigroup and GE, which in the last cycle had the highest market caps and were very widely held. Like AAPL, they got to a point where literally every investor on earth (and every mutual fund/ ETF) owned some. For example I hold AAPL through my BRK.B and S&P 500 (it's 4% of the index).

In other words, even if an investor doesn't go out looking to invest in AAPL, they inevitably end up holding quite a bit of it.

Once you get to that kind of ownership level, there's a lot of potential downside. There aren't any new potential buyers of AAPL, but an endless number of potential sellers. Everyone already holds it.

And at least GE was diversified into several different industries and segments. AAPL is a pure tech stock, with most of its revenue coming from a *single consumer product*!


----------



## dotnet_nerd

james4beach said:


> ...AAPL is a pure tech stock, with most of its revenue coming from a *single consumer product*!


Actually Apple has several revenue streams.

Several products - phones, tablets, laptops/desktops, wearables and accessories

Plus what they call "services"

The breakdown is something like this:
iPhones - $32.5 billion
iPads - $4.4 billion
Macs - $5.1 billion
Services - $2.2 billion

So yeah, the phones are a big chunk of the story but not their only game.


----------



## jargey3000

glad i bought in when i heard warren was doing same...
wonder if i should take some profits on this flurry of activity...?


----------



## jargey3000

dotnet_nerd said:


> Actually Apple has several revenue streams.
> 
> Several products - phones, tablets, laptops/desktops, wearables and accessories
> 
> Plus what they call "services"
> 
> The breakdown is something like this:
> iPhones - $32.5 billion
> iPads - $4.4 billion
> Macs - $5.1 billion
> Services - $2.2 billion
> 
> So yeah, the phones are a big chunk of the story but not their only game.


yeah, but phones are still their..."core"...business&#55357;&#56454;&#55356;&#57340;*♂


----------



## fatcat

i have a large allocation of QQQ and they are 11% of it ... i have been a fanboy for decades and lately argue against them but i think i am just wrong though i do think that the transition from hardware to services is far from accomplished and there are risks along the way

the higher end smartphone segment is crowded and saturated so apple will have to keep dazzling to get people to buy their more expensive phones

lately i have begun to think that their operating system, ecosystem, design ui and commitment to privacy will probably carry them through the transition to services as phone sales slow

i just bought a copy of windows 10 and installed on my mac, it runs much faster than apple's os but the ui is a hot mess and completely incoherent not to mention the security and privacy holes are everywhere versus apple

i do think apple will continue to be a good bet for the next decade but risks still abound

if i had to buy a new laptop for work, i'd look seriously at a chromebook


----------



## d00little

Just a Guy said:


> Something is wrong in a world where apple is considered the most valuable company. Not that I'm complaining since I own them, but it really makes me shake my head. I wouldn't buy apple today, heck I wouldn't have bought it at half the price.


But they make the most desired version of something that is almost an essential item in today's world, the smartphone. Many people can live without vehicles, computers, home TV and phone lines, etc., but there is no way most people would give up their smartphone.


----------



## james4beach

d00little said:


> But they make the most desired version of something that is almost an essential item in today's world, the smartphone. Many people can live without vehicles, computers, home TV and phone lines, etc., but there is no way most people would give up their smartphone.


The phone is an essential item, but there are good smartphones out there for a fraction of the iPhone's cost. I know because I have one, that I paid $90 for. It does everything I need. The iPhone is a luxury consumer item, far more expensive than the alternatives. There's no question that they have been extremely fashionable, but I think Apple is really riding a wave of consumer fashion and popularity (currently the "in" thing).


----------



## Just a Guy

Apple only produces about 20% of the phones, but collects 90% of the profits in the market. That doesn’t make it worth more than say Exxon who controls all the oil and gas.


----------



## james4beach

I think another factor is the sector they're in. There's been a powerful bull market in both tech and consumer sectors for the last few years. Apple is categorized as both, so it benefits not only from its own company factors but also from general enthusiasm about the sector(s) it's in.

For example, even if Apple's revenue remains strong, if tech and/or consumer sectors fall out of favour, the stock won't do as well. For the last few years it's been propelled by strong fundamentals + fashion and popularity + tech sector strength + consumer sector strength


----------



## Just a Guy

I have to admit, even with apple being the most valuable company, their other numbers are a lot more reasonable than any other major company on the market.


----------



## peterk

james4beach said:


> The phone is an essential item, but there are good smartphones out there for a fraction of the iPhone's cost. I know because I have one, that I paid $90 for. It does everything I need. The iPhone is a luxury consumer item, far more expensive than the alternatives. There's no question that they have been extremely fashionable, but I think Apple is really riding a wave of consumer fashion and popularity (currently the "in" thing).


Oh, this exact sentence has been the truth since Apple was a $100B company... Might be same when it's $10T...

I don't see the principle piece of modern technology, the smartphone, becoming less of a fixture or central item of importance in people's lives. It's importance and integration will only grow, as will people's desire to have the best one.


----------



## james4beach

peterk said:


> Oh, this exact sentence has been the truth since Apple was a $100B company... Might be same when it's $10T...
> 
> I don't see the principle piece of modern technology, the smartphone, becoming less of a fixture or central item of importance in people's lives. It's importance and integration will only grow, as will people's desire to have the best one.


Yes, iPhones have been fashionable for many years now. But how long can something remain "in fashion"? My understanding is that fashionable things have a limited life time. I'm shocked iPhones are still this popular so many years after they were introduced.

RCA radios and 8-tracks were extremely popular and fashionable for a long time. RCA stock did great back in its heyday, rising more than 10x in its up-phase.


----------



## andrewf

peterk said:


> Oh, this exact sentence has been the truth since Apple was a $100B company... Might be same when it's $10T...
> 
> I don't see the principle piece of modern technology, the smartphone, becoming less of a fixture or central item of importance in people's lives. It's importance and integration will only grow, as will people's desire to have the best one.


I don't know, I think Apple is very worried about this. They are worried about voice and augmented reality disrupting the smartphone.


----------



## peterk

james4beach said:


> Yes, iPhones have been fashionable for many years now. But how long can something remain "in fashion"? My understanding is that fashionable things have a limited life time. I'm shocked iPhones are still this popular so many years after they were introduced.
> 
> RCA radios and 8-tracks were extremely popular and fashionable for a long time. RCA stock did great back in its heyday, rising more than 10x in its up-phase.



Phones aren't just entertainment and fashion, they're essential devices. Like cars.

What is more important, a car or a cell phone?

What will be more important in 10 years? A car or a cell phone? 30 years?

Has the demand for luxury cars subsided over the decades because basic cars are plentiful and just as good?

Will the demand for luxury phones subside because basic phones are plentiful and just as good?


----------



## treva84

james4beach said:


> Yes, iPhones have been fashionable for many years now. But how long can something remain "in fashion"? My understanding is that fashionable things have a limited life time. I'm shocked iPhones are still this popular so many years after they were introduced.
> 
> RCA radios and 8-tracks were extremely popular and fashionable for a long time. RCA stock did great back in its heyday, rising more than 10x in its up-phase.





andrewf said:


> I don't know, I think Apple is very worried about this. They are worried about voice and augmented reality disrupting the smartphone.


Look at their service revenue growth - as their service revenues grow, people's Apple products become more entrenched in their lives and their routines. This creates a switching cost. Apple has a brand moat; they are building their switching cost moat. 

If you use your iPhone for Apple Pay, Apple Car Play, your favourite Apps and Apple Music, how likely are you to switch once you are used to all these iPhone associated services?

The future isn't in the hardware - Apple knows this. They have to disrupt themselves and cannibalize their hardware every cycle, or else someone else will do it for them. The future is in services which is why Tim Cook is so aggressively growing it.


----------



## kcowan

james4beach said:


> RCA radios and 8-tracks were extremely popular and fashionable for a long time. RCA stock did great back in its heyday, rising more than 10x in its up-phase.


You will have to refresh my failing memory. I remember radios and 8-tracks from the 80s but never from RCA. By the 80s, the Japanese and maybe Koreans had taken over that space. Apple was late to the party with their iPod in 2001, yet they were still able to take over the space. It was not about technology even back then. It was the user experience.


----------



## Just a Guy

Many companies, IBM, digital equipment, xerox, rca, etc. All fell from grace, but it wasn't quick. It was because they sat on their laurels thinking life would never change. They thought they could keep doing the same thing and they'd always remain the greatest. 

One could even add Apple to that list as they did the same thing in the late 80's and 90's. They didn't discontinue the apple 2 until 1989 for example and the comany didn't upgrade the mac line in the 90's until Steve jobs came back inhis reverse takeover. Apple today isn't sitting on its laurels, it's expanding into new areas all the time, you just don't appreciate it because they aren't "exploding" like the iPhone (though it didn't start out selling tens of millions of units either) and they are in areas hard to see like services. Apple has developed car software, it's getting into tv production, it's got products in development that we haven't seen, etc.

Now, does that mean apple is invulnerable? Not in the least, but it's certainly not a dying company...yet.

Try naming another company which has produced, singlehandedly, as many big products as apple has...IBM when it was younger comes to mind, GE in its prime, but not many others...those companies lasted around 100 years before going into decline from poor management and, even then took many poor managers to dies. Cook isn't a poor manager, he's not the visionary that Steve jobs was, but he's not an idiot either trying to milk the last drop of profit out of existing technology with no eye to the future.


----------



## jargey3000

...just for fun, i went back & read the first couple pages of this thread....from 2011!....
veddy interestink ! ....&#55357;&#56424;


----------



## Just a Guy

Remember the saying...the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.


----------



## jargey3000

ah'mago all in @$200 i think!
check back with me in 2023!


----------



## Beaver101

^ Why 2023? Have you completed your Jamaican trip already? in May 2018 that is/was.


----------



## james4beach

kcowan said:


> You will have to refresh my failing memory. I remember radios and 8-tracks from the 80s but never from RCA. By the 80s, the Japanese and maybe Koreans had taken over that space. Apple was late to the party with their iPod in 2001, yet they were still able to take over the space. It was not about technology even back then. It was the user experience.


Maybe I got the 8-track part wrong. My point is that RCA was a really big deal at one point and there stock was incredibly strong. Their products were in fashion and they had the most innovative, seemingly irreplaceable, most futuristic products... similar to many of the arguments in this thread.

Their stock didn't do very well going forward.


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## jargey3000

jeez jame, ya can't compare 8-tracks to cellphones orsmartphones....not everyone was flicking their 8-tracks all day, every day, back in the day...


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## Dilbert

jargey3000 said:


> jeez jame, ya can't compare 8-tracks to cellphones orsmartphones....not everyone was flicking their 8-tracks all day, every day, back in the day...


Hell no, we were flicking our Bics!


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## kcowan

I remember when Lazaridis first saw the iPhone and said: Holy cow that is a computer! At the time, BBY were making glorified pagers with a host that would process text strings into email. I had dealings with them in 1999 and they were very arrogant. They were lacking in vision.

I think Gates vision of a computer on every desk limited their evolution into the multiple computers for every person that is the norm today. What will the next revolutionary vision be? Multiple computers on every body? The iWatch and Fitbit might be leading that way?

IOT might be leading the way in another direction? And growth of the cloud.


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## fatcat

every tech company eventually turtles and dies, as will apple ... i bet buffet wished he spent his original allocation to big-blue on apple instead ...


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## jargey3000

kcowan said:


> I remember when Lazaridis first saw the iPhone and said: Holy cow that is a computer! At the time, BBY were making glorified pagers with a host that would process text strings into email. I had dealings with them in 1999 and they were very arrogant. They were lacking in vision.
> 
> I think Gates vision of a computer on every desk limited their evolution into the multiple computers for every person that is the norm today. What will the next revolutionary vision be? Multiple computers on every body? The iWatch and Fitbit might be leading that way?
> 
> IOT might be leading the way in another direction? And growth of the cloud.


two words: A I


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## kcowan

fatcat said:


> i bet buffet wished he spent his original allocation to big-blue on apple instead ...


Funny how IBM bet the farm on AI and they have made substantial progress but the market was not ready for Watson on a grand scale.


jargey3000 said:


> two words: A I


While I agree that it will be the future, I see it as an imbedded technology rather than stand-alone like Watson. And that will create so many islands that I do not see any companies thriving on an AI technology offering. But WTFDIK?


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## fatcat

kcowan said:


> Funny how IBM bet the farm on AI and they have made substantial progress but the market was not ready for Watson on a grand scale.While I agree that it will be the future, I see it as an imbedded technology rather than stand-alone like Watson. And that will create so many islands that I do not see any companies thriving on an AI technology offering. But WTFDIK?


elon musk recommended this documentary: _Do You Trust Your Computer

_https://bigthink.com/news/heres-the-ai-documentary-elon-musk-thinks-is-essential-viewing

i watched it and it scared the poop out of me, not sure whether i want big-AI silos or a mass of little ones as you say ... i tend to think the little ones bother me more which is roughly one of the points the documentary makes

also, apple is far behind in the AI race, they better stick to services and hardware because their web / internet integration sucks and is far behind google and big-blue and maybe microsoft


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## Just a Guy

Fatcat, do you have some insider knowledge as to what Apple is working on? For all we know they may be very advanced in AI. Not that it matters, they aren’t always the first, yet still manage to dominate by improving on what others have done.


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## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Fatcat, do you have some insider knowledge as to what Apple is working on? For all we know they may be very advanced in AI. Not that it matters, they aren’t always the first, yet still manage to dominate by improving on what others have done.


no, they have supposedly been working on vr a lot but that hasn't come to fruition yet

the problem with ai i that it requires a huge commitment in time and resources and i don't think apple is even close yet ... their web services, software and current ai (siri) are just way behind say google who has access to reams and reams of raw data in the form of searches

i don 't see any way they could be "very advanced" in ai since it requires so much resources that you can't really hide it

both google and facebook have access to massive piles of raw data but apple who pride themselves on privacy can't even close so where do they get this raw data ? ... this is valuable stuff and no one is going to give it up

they are using some kind of workaround to get maps data while protecting privacy at the same time supposedly

i don't see how they could get the data they need to implement advanced ai

god knows siri is one dumb girl ...


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## Just a Guy

Apple hid the iPod, iPhone, iMac, etc. They are suing an ex-employee for stealing trade secrets in ai. There are rumours of self driving software and many other things. Apple is very good at hiding and disguising what they are truly doing. They also have a way of waiting for the perfect time to release projects. 

Go look up an old video about the knowledge navigator Apple released. Look a lot like an iPad which came out decades later.


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## fatcat

Just a Guy said:


> Apple hid the iPod, iPhone, iMac, etc. They are suing an ex-employee for stealing trade secrets in ai. There are rumours of self driving software and many other things. Apple is very good at hiding and disguising what they are truly doing. They also have a way of waiting for the perfect time to release projects.
> 
> Go look up an old video about the knowledge navigator Apple released. Look a lot like an iPad which came out decades later.


i am not in any way saying that apple is innovative and secretive ... they have been category inventors and they also refine and perfect existent categories

but ai just requires so much data, i don't see how they could be accessing and using this much data without word getting out

siri is ai and siri is just awful, not even remotely close to google's ai so you would have to believe that if apple really had good solid ai code, they would be using it on siri which is a very important piece of their puzzle


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## Just a Guy

They didn’t invent Siri, they bought Siri and it turned out the code wasn’t scalable. Much of it had to be rewritten.


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## kcowan

Once again AAPL is rated the number one brand in the world.
Apple leads the brand value parade again.



> Top 10 most valuable brands 2018
> 1. Apple ($214bn)
> 2. Google ($155bn)
> 3. Amazon ($101bn)
> 4. Microsoft ($93bn)
> 5. Coca-Cola ($66bn)
> 6. Samsung ($60bn)
> 7. Toyota ($53bn)
> 8. Mercedes-Benz ($49bn)
> 9. Facebook ($45bn)
> 10. McDonald’s ($43bn)


TSLA dropped out of the top 100 this year.


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## jargey3000

anybody buying in (or buying more) on today's dip -9% to $144?


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## MrsPartridge

I won't buy. My issue with Apple is that it is a one product company. There is the Mac but really their prime item is the smartphone. Could something go wrong and people run away like what happened when Blackberry had that 3 day outage?


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## Just a Guy

Love the idea that Apple is a one trick pony. They have several divisions (services for example) that make more money than most listed companies on the market. Their Mac division, music, wearables are all near the top, if not the top in each category, yep people believe they are dying. They make more money in a quarter than most companies make in several years. 

I guess some people will always try and talk down the best companies to justify they 2% GIC investments.


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## jargey3000

(I'm gonna resurrect my post #3333 above, come Jan 3, 2020.....lets see what price is then...)


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## Just a Guy

1.22 billion in one week for sales on the Apple App Store....

https://www.cnet.com/news/apple-app...mers-spent-1-22b-in-one-week/#ftag=CAD590a51e

They got 30% of that. Yep, definitely in trouble.


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## jargey3000

sooooo....... its a "buy" ....at current levels??


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## Just a Guy

I would t go that far, just that they are far from going under, or a one trick pony. Only a few years ago Apple produced $6 a year in profits...now they have 130B in cash sitting there, despite the dividend and share buybacks.

To me, the idea that Apple was the most valuable company in the world was a little silly but, at the same time, I think they are the healthiest company financially and diversity speaking compared to any other listed companies...

I’m not sure I’d buy, but I certainly wouldn’t sell. Chances of it more than doubling are slim, how much bigger can it grow? It was already the biggest.


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## jargey3000

thanks JAG


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## OnlyMyOpinion

If you have exposure to the US or ex-CAN markets through nearly any MF or ETF, you are going to see APPL among the top holdings.
I'm comfortable with that amount and type of exposure.


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## fatcat

a lot of the news in the last few days is pure schadenfreude, apple's success pisses people off

but i do think they face serious challenges, they have no blockbuster category-creating products on the horizon (that we know of)

their prime money maker (by far) is facing serious problems in china that will likely get worse as tariffs and huawei / xiaomi make better and better and cheaper and cheaper phones as well as plateauing premium smartphone demand worldwide

they are falling flat in india where their phones are just too expensive

everyone tells me about services except their services are mostly (but not entirely) tied to the iphone/ios ecosystem

they are selling services on a subset of all the phones and operating systems in the world and this makes the "other/services" category a challenge

if i were apple i would be thinking about moving as much of their "other" category (apps, music, movies, payment) out into the rest of the world exactly as microsoft as done but in so doing they risk losing control of the apple experience

i am happy to have them in QQQ but would never own them as a single name (i wouldn't own any tech company as a single name)


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## fatcat

fatcat said:


> a lot of the news in the last few days is pure schadenfreude, apple's success pisses people off
> 
> but i do think they face serious challenges, they have no blockbuster category-creating products on the horizon (that we know of)
> 
> their prime money maker (by far) is facing serious problems in china that will likely get worse as tariffs and huawei / xiaomi make better and better and cheaper and cheaper phones as well as plateauing premium smartphone demand worldwide
> 
> they are falling flat in india where their phones are just too expensive
> 
> everyone tells me about services except their services are mostly (but not entirely) tied to the iphone/ios ecosystem
> 
> they are selling services on a subset of all the phones and operating systems in the world and this makes the "other/services" category a challenge
> 
> *if i were apple i would be thinking about moving as much of their "other" category (apps, music, movies, payment) out into the rest of the world* exactly as microsoft as done but in so doing they risk losing control of the apple experience
> 
> i am happy to have them in QQQ but would never own them as a single name (i wouldn't own any tech company as a single name)


wow, after posting this i happened across an article that shows that apple is doing exactly this by working with samsung to embed itunes access into samsung tv's

https://www.macrumors.com/2019/01/06/samsung-smart-tvs-itunes-airplay-2/

you can access your itunes media without needing to own an apple tv

a very smart move on apple's part


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## Just a Guy

I remember when Apple was doing poorly, no one wanted to buy them. Jobs turned it around, Apple does really good, no one wants to buy them. 

Stick to your 2% GICs and HISAs then and continue to lose money to inflation and taxes. 

There isn’t a company on any market listings that is as strong as Apple, I challenge anyone to prove otherwise. That’s not to say they are a buy, but Apple is sitting on enough money to buy a good chunk of the other listings and has divisions that make more than a lot of other listed companies.


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## jargey3000

I'm thinking, maybe "all in" on Apple, at these levels....


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## andrewf

Apple is very fairly valued at the moment (it is a cash flow goliath), but that low valuation I think reflects a lot of market concern about iPhone going forward. So, I think you are being compensated for taking that risk.


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## doctrine

AAPL is cheap and I think is in a similar position to the drops in 2013 (40% from high) and 2016 (30% from high) when there were concerns about Iphone sales. You have to believe that it is a good product to invest in the company. I personally have one, but don't have direct AAPL shares (S&P 500 only), but the iPhone continues to be a fantastic product. This current drop isn't quite as much as 2013, so this is hardly uncharted territory.


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## peterk

Had 110 shares a few month ago, now up to 150 as of today, in my RRSP.


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## fatcat

apple is floating in money and currently generating a lot of cash but they are fundamentally a hardware company and hardware ultimately is a commodity, it is replicable and copyable as we see with the iphone where huawei and xiaomi are making phones every bit as good for significantly less money

the next 100 years will belong to software, data and artificial intelligence ... all areas that apple is weak in

sony doesn't even bother to invest in making their own oled tv panels, they just spec them from lg ... why ? .. because panels are a hardware commodity and the money is in software ... it is sony's superior picture processing software that makes their brand and product ... their x1 video processor is the best in the world

hardware is on the low end of the totem pole

apple's big problem will be to see their products at more competitive prices ... they are certainly not competitive anymore ... and maintain their premium brand status and that will not be easy

possible for sure but not easy


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## Just a Guy

Take a look at who actually makes profits in the smart phone business. Other companies may have better sales, but they aren’t making any of the money. 

Apple also makes a ton of money off of software and services.


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## doctrine

fatcat said:


> apple is floating in money and currently generating a lot of cash but they are fundamentally a hardware company and hardware ultimately is a commodity, it is replicable and copyable as we see with the iphone where huawei and xiaomi are making phones every bit as good for significantly less money
> 
> the next 100 years will belong to software, data and artificial intelligence ... all areas that apple is weak in
> 
> sony doesn't even bother to invest in making their own oled tv panels, they just spec them from lg ... why ? .. because panels are a hardware commodity and the money is in software ... it is sony's superior picture processing software that makes their brand and product ... their x1 video processor is the best in the world
> 
> hardware is on the low end of the totem pole
> 
> apple's big problem will be to see their products at more competitive prices ... they are certainly not competitive anymore ... and maintain their premium brand status and that will not be easy
> 
> possible for sure but not easy


As a user, I would actually argue Apple is far more of a software company. Their phones are definitely high quality, but you can get a technically xx% better phone in terms of MHz or screen size or pixels or whatever. What makes an Iphone a great product is that it works nearly flawlessly and the software enhances everything. Definitely a buy at current prices.


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## andrewf

They are a lifestyle/branding company first and foremost.


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## fatcat

i prefer apple's ios to android as do many people ... but the question that the market is now asking is whether or not the operating system ... and lets face it thats all we are talking about, because apple's web apps, siri and the rest of its software are widely viewed as subpar ... is whether or not ios is worth the premium that apple is now asking

apple has lost 450B market cap since its peak a few months ago ... almost 500B in a few months this tells you that apple stock is fueled by hopes and dreams as well as cash reserves and cash flow

i use an iphone but i certainly believe that the price premium apple has previously commanded is plainly over

in india apple is just not selling ... period : https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...a-sign-apple-is-failing-to-adapt-its-business



> "Apple has found India to be a difficult market to crack, with shipments of the iPhone reportedly slipping in the market as it struggles to compete against cheaper rivals in the country."


and in china owning an iphone is teetering on the brink of becoming unpatriotic where we see a chinese company refusing to promote staff who use iphones : https://qz.com/1506181/a-chinese-company-wont-promote-staff-who-buy-iphones/

not to mention that huawei and xiaomi are releasing excellent phones for much much less

don't let your vision be clouded by the fact the we on this forum have far more disposable income than most and can afford the latest iphone if we want ... i could buy a 10 but i am very happy with my 6S which is another problem for apple


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## jargey3000

tempted to sell off my remaining chunk of apple on recent jump, & take a nice fat profit..(closed above $236 today...)
but the greedy part of me says its going to continue upward for a while yet...
but then there's alway possibility of unforeseen surprises

....comments? thoughts?


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## OnlyMyOpinion

Jargey, its got to depend on your own circumstances such as how big a % of your portfolio it is, what you will do with the proceeds, what it's outlook is, etc.
I don't have an overall hold/sell opinion because its not a name I follow.


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## Just a Guy

Apple is one of the best companies on the market by almost any measure. There is no reason to sell. Then again, I don’t understand how it can be the world’s most valuable company either.


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## Borat

Sold mine somewhere around 170 I think. Oh well.


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## jargey3000

....trigger finger's gettin' itchy at $235.....either that, or just put it in a drawer & forget it....
tough to know what to do....


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## kcowan

Once again AAPL leads the world in brand value (why Buffett bought them) at #1!

Apple lead the world again!
Hanging onto my shares with their 1965% gain since selling off half when I was concerned about asset allocation. Gotta go with your gut!


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## jargey3000

jargey3000 said:


> ....trigger finger's gettin' itchy at $235.....either that, or just put it in a drawer & forget it....
> tough to know what to do....


....didnt pull trigger....touching $258 today.......holding out for $300.......&#55357;&#56860;:satellite:


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